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Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: this is a huge series for the Orioles. It feels like we’ve said that over and over again this season, but I promise it’s true this time. The Orioles and Phillies play this weekend with the Orioles still on the fringes of the Wild Card race. The outcome of this series could be the difference in how Mike Elias handles things going into the trade deadline on Monday. This is a big one.

It’s hard to predict what will happen this weekend. The Phillies are a confusing team. They started their season 9-19 and fired their manager. Don Mattingly replaced him and they turned things around. But they have been on a bad run. They were just swept by the Marlins, who had lost 12 straight before the series. They are 2-8 in their last 10 games. But they have a 57-52 record, good for second in the NL East and a Wild Card spot.

The Phillies have been on a good run, with playoff appearances in each of the last four seasons. And they’ve been well-rounded, with both good hitters and good pitchers. This year, however, the hitting has taken a bit of a nosedive. Kyle Schwarber leads the lead in home runs and has .911 OPS. Bryce Harper has strong overall number, but has slumped for the past month. JT Realmuto? Stinks. Trea Turner? Bad. Alec Bohm? Nope. Brandon Marsh hasn’t been terrible, but he’s still very wet.

The starting pitching, however, has been among the best in baseball this season thanks to of Cristopher Sánchez, Zach Wheeler, and Jesús Luzardo. The Orioles will face the first two this weekend. The quality drops off considerably after that, but when those are your top three guys, you’re going to win a lot of games.

The Phillies bullpen is very strong in the back half. Closer Jhoan Duran has a 100-mph fastball and a 37.6% strikeout rate. Orion Kerkering will walk anyone who holds still long enough, but he’s been very good at keeping runs off the board.

So which version of the Phillies team will we see this weekend? It’s hard to know, just as it’s hard to know which version of the Orioles will show. Either way, the trade deadline is on the other side of this series. So moves will be made.

Game 1: Friday, 7:05 pm – MASN

TBD vs RHP Brandon Young (17 GS, 3.13 ERA / 3.74 FIP)

The Phillies haven’t announced their starter for game one, but it will not be Jesús Luzardo. That’s good news. He started on Wednesday. Sánchez would have been on regular rest for today, but they pushed him to tomorrow. They could go with Brian Keller as either the starter or the bulk reliever. We just have to wait and see.

Brandon Young continues his journey as the unlikely ace of the staff. He is coming off of 6.1 innings against Atlanta in which he allowed just one run on four hits.

Game 2: Saturday, 7:05 – MASN

LHP Cristopher Sánchez (22 GS, 2.73 ERA / 2.66 FIP) vs RHP Shane Baz (21 GS, 3.98 ERA / 3.47 FIP)

This is gonna be a tough one. The Orioles have struggled against lefties all year, and this guy is arguably the best lefty starter in the game. He has an excellent sinker that he relies on a lot. It has helped him reach his 58% ground-ball rate. He strikes out over 10 batters per nine innings as well, and barely walks anyone. He led the league in bWAR last season at 8.1, and currently leads this year at 5.6. I have to admit I don’t have high hopes for this one.

Baz keeps plugging along with solid start after solid start. On May 9th, he had a 5.48 ERA that he has slowly brought down. In his last start he gave up one earned run in 4.2 innings, which dropped his ERA below 4.00 for the first time this season.

Game 3: Sunday, 1:35 – MASN

RHP Zack Wheeler (17 GS, 2.53 ERA / 3.09 FIP) vs RHP Kyle Bradish (21 GS, 3.74 ERA / 3.87 FIP

At least he’s not a lefty? Wheeler has been with the Phillies since 2020 and is 36 years old, but hasn’t shown a sign that he’s slowing down. He is coming off of a bust in his last start (3 IP, 8 R vs the Marlins) but that kind of start has been an anomaly for him this year. He has a mid-90s fastball and is still striking out over 10 batters per nine innings. He will give up some homers, but with an opponent OBP of just .245, there aren’t a lot of baserunners to bring home; 11 of his 13 homers allowed have been solo shots.

This could be an incredible pitching matchup, or Kyle Bradish could pitch like he did on Friday against Detroit. He allowed five runs on ten hits and couldn’t get out of the fifth inning. We know he has ace stuff, we just don’t know if he’ll show it.

What say you? How many games of this series do you think the Orioles will win? Let us know in the comments.

I really wanted the Guardians to target Reid Detmers this offseason thinking he was on the verge of a breakout… which happened! Time to revisit the idea.

You can view our larger trade deadline piece here as we discuss a wider pool of options the Guardians may consider. To make my position clear, I expect the Guardians to make smaller moves, like trading Bo Naylor and getting a castoff/undervalued reliever. But, in the interest of exploring potential larger moves, we are doing a series looking at some of those bigger names. So far, we have discussed Spencer Steer, Luis Arraez, Shea Langeliers, Taylor Ward, Heliot Ramos, Jo Adell, Ty France, Tyler Soderstrom, Heriberto Hernandez, Kyle Stowers, and Alec Burleson. Although the Guardians’ greatest need is hitting, the market is aflush with starting pitching so it also may make sense for the Guardians to see if they can find a good value there, as we wrote here and looked at specifically with Jose Soriano.

In the Guardians’ defense on Detmers, they may very well have tried to acquire him and the Angels shut down the conversation because their owner is insane. However, it sounds like their new GM MAY be getting owner Arte Moreno to listen to reason on doing a little rebuild. Detmers is 27 years old and under control through 2029. Right now, he is putting up a 4.04 ERA but a 3.36 FIP with a poor Angels defense behind him, with an excellent 10.44/2.74 K/BB%. He is middle of the road with extension, something the Guardians’ love, but that may be part of what they could help him go after when they get him out of the barren wilderness that is Angels’ pitching development.

Why target a pitcher when hitting is the glaring need on the Guardians? I think the Guardians can target a short-term help or two with the bat (Ty France and the Angels’ own Jo Adell) and still have the ammo for a run at a controllable asset like Detmers. I think Detmers is a no-doubt front of the rotation starter here, but the market is pretty saturated with starting pitchers and Detmers’ track record of success is short… so he may be able to be acquired with one top 100 prospect of the Genao/Velazquez/Caceres/ Doughty/Ingle/Chourio bunch and additional pieces. If so, this would be a no-brainer move for me. It also allows the Guardians to move Slade Cecconi to the bullpen where he would be very effective. They could, alternatively, see if the Angels wanted to skew younger and trade them Joey Cantillo and a great prospect for Detmers.

The playoff rotation of Williams, Messick and Detmers with Bibee for a game four as needed stands up to any group in MLB. That’s why this potential deal excites me so much. Let me know what you think about it in the comments below!

Thursday saw an offensive outburst in the Atlanta Braves system. Although the DSL team lost, all four of the full season affiliates won with three of them scoring 11+ runs and the other scoring seven runs. Conor Essenburg, Alex Lodise, Eric Hartman, Patrick Clohisy, and Luis Guanipa were among the prospects to have notable days at the plate, while Lucas Braun and Landon Beidelschies had strong starts.

Gwinnett Stripers 7, Durham Bulls 3

• Patrick Clohisy, CF: 1-3, 2 BB, R, RBI, 2 SB, .451/.509/.804
• Sean Murphy, C: 2-5, R, .300/.364/.360
• Brewer Hicklen, RF: 3-4, HR, 2B, BB, 2 R, RBI, .303/.372/.527
• Lucas Braun, SP: 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 3.92 ERA

Box Score

Statcast

Lucas Braun got the start and turned in a quality start. In his six innings, he allowed three runs on six hits and two walks. Braun also struck out six and picked up 16 whiffs to earn the win. Rolddy Munoz pitched a scoreless inning with two strikeouts, followed by a scoreless inning with a strikeout from Hayden Harris. James Karinchak threw a scoreless ninth with three strikeouts to finish the game off.

Patrick Clohisy and Brewer Hicklen carried the Stripers offense in this one. Hicklen was three for four with a walk and ended up a triple short of the cycle as he scored twice and hit his 17th homer of the season. Clohisy was one for three, but walked twice, stole two bases, scored a run, and batted one in. Rehabbing Sean Murphy added a two-hit game, while Andrew McCutchen also added two hits. Fellow rehab assignment Ha-Seong Kim went hitless in three at bats, but did draw a pair of walks.

Columbus Clingstones 11, Rocket City Trash Pandas 3

• Carson Taylor, DH: 3-5, HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, .455/.478/.909
• Adam Zebrowski, C: 2-5, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, .261/.341/.541
• Dalton McIntyre, CF: 2-3, BB, 2 R, .271/.386/.400
• Braden Scott, SP: 6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 3.97 ERA

Box Score

Recent acquisition Braden Scott made hit third appearance for Columbus after coming from the independent leagues, and pitched a strong one. Six innings, three hits and three walks, allowing two runs as he struck out three and whiffed 16. Luis Vargas and Ray Kerr each pitched a scoreless frame, while Owen Hackman allowed a run in the ninth inning as he finished off the game.

This was another balanced offensive outburst, though Carson Taylor and Adam Zebrowski had huge games that included homers. Taylor had three hits with three runs scored and three batted in, while Zebrowski had two hits, two runs scored, and three batted in as they each homered. Dalton McIntyre had a two-hit game that included a walk and two runs scored, while Jordan Groshans homered, walked, and batted in three runs. Luke Waddell and Matt Scannell each added multi-hit games in the win, while Ambioris Tavarez singled and walked.

Rome Emperors 11, Hub City Spartanburgers 8

• Eric Hartman, CF: 1-4, BB, 2 R, SB, .278/.366/.533
• Dixon Williams, LF: 1-4, HR, BB, 2 R, 3 RBI, .212/.322/.403
• Mason Guerra, 1B: 2-4, HR, 2B, 2 R, 2 RBI, .256/.362/.434
• Alex Lodise, SS: 2-4, 2 R, RBI
• Luke Sinnard, SP: 2.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 1 K, 2.45

Box Score

This one was not as close as the final score looked, as Hub City was able to tack on five runs across the final three innings. Luke Sinnard got the start and went two and two third, but struggled with his command. Royse actually threw more balls (22) than strikes (20) in his 42 pitches as he allowed three hits and three walks, striking out one and whiffing three. After Jacob Kroeger got the final out in the third, Zach Royse pitched four innings in relief, allowing four runs on eight hits and two walks, but struck out five and whiffed 12. Logan Samuels allowed a run in his inning and Tyler Schoff allowed two runs in two thirds of an inning, before Jaret Whorff got the final out of the game to pick up the save.

It was a balanced offensive outing to put up the 11 runs, as eight guys had a hit, four had a multi-hit game, and seven guys reached base multiple times. Mason Guerra had the biggest day, homering and doubling with two runs scored and two more batted in. Dixon Williams also homered, walked, scored twice, and batted in three. Williams hit his 13th homer of the year, while Guerra hit his 10th. Eric Hartman continued his recent strong stretch by going one for four with a walk, stolen base, and two runs scored, while Alex Lodise had a two-hit game with a pair of runs scored and one batted in. Owen Carey also had a two-hit game in the win.

Augusta GreenJackets 15, Columbia Fireflies 3

• Conor Essenburg, RF/CF: 1-2, 2B, 4 BB, R, 2 RBI, .282/.427/.556
• Luis Guanipa, CF: 2-6, R, RBI, SB, .303/.365/.452
• Cody Miller, SS: 2-5, HR, BB, 2 R, 3 RBI, .210/.362/.371
• Landon Beidelschies, SP: 4.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, 6.72 ERA

Box Score

It’s been a tough first full season for Landon Beidelschies, but he’s turned in a strong outing. Beidelschies went four and two thirds, allowing a run on four hits and three walks. He also struck out five and picked up seven whiffs. Kade Woods went the next two and a third scoreless. Styven Paez would allow two unearned runs in the ninth as he pitched an inning and a third, with Ryan Heppner getting the final two outs.

The Augusta offense got started early with five runs in the first inning and continued until they hit 15 scored. Cody Miller and Cooper McMurray each had two-hit games that included home runs, and McMurray batted in four while Miller batted in three. Conor Essenburg continued his recent hot streak by reaching base five times, doubling and walking four times in his six plate appearances. Luis Guanipa had two singles and a stolen base, while Nick Montgomery was one for three with a pair of walks and three runs scored. Caden Merritt, Hayden Friese, and Joe Olsavsky also reached base multiple times in the win, while Juan Mateo added a single.

DSL LAD Bautista 5, DSL Braves 1

• Elisandro Ramirez, RF: 1-1, HR, R, RBI, .235/.361/.431
• Luis Fortunato, SS: 3-4, SB, .261/.384/.283
• Charlis Medina, SP: 4 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 1 K, 3.55 ERA

Box Score

The DSL team got a start from Charlis Medina, who struggled early by allowing three runs (two earned) in the first, and then didn’t allow any more runs to score through his next three innings. Giovanni Medina went the final four innings, allowing a run in both the seventh and eighth. Medina did strike out four batters during his stint.

The offense really struggled here as they managed just three hits through eight innings and managed five with three walks overall. The lone run came in the ninth when replacement right fielder Elisandro Ramirez hit an inside the park homer, good for his second of the year. The most notable offensive performance came from Luis Fortunato, who singled three times in four at bats, and also stole a base. The other hit was a Yasseel Pena single, and he also added a walk and a steal. Sherrintely Da Costa Gomez was hitless in three at bats, but did draw a walk, while Elioberto Mondesir stole two bases in the loss.

I remember when the internet wasn’t everywhere. When I was in high school in the aughts, you had to go to a computer to log onto Myspace or Facebook or to browse ESPN. In my freshman year of college at the tail end of the decade, my school didn’t even have WiFi in the dorms—you had to physically plug into the ethernet ports. Connecting while traveling abroad meant buying a physical, temporary SIM card or a burner phone. And airplanes? Forget about it. That’s what the seatback screen is for.

Nowadays, that’s not the case. On our most recent trip abroad, we had fast and reliable 5G service via a digital eSIM card. On the flight back, the plane had satellite internet via Starlink that I measured at a ludicrous-for-30,000-feet-in-the-air 138 megabits per second. Two weeks ago, we set off on a family vacation: an Alaskan cruise. Internet was, naturally, available for purchase on a per device basis.

But I didn’t buy the internet package. For the first time in over a decade, I didn’t have access to any Royals information whatsoever. No scores. No news. No social media posts. And let me tell you: it was bliss.

Make no mistake; I still love the Royals. I love baseball. I enjoy writing for a passionate audience. However, this season, and really the last few years, has worn me down. And the core reason, I’ve come to realize, is just how many Royals games just haven’t mattered in the standings for over the past decade.

Ever since the Golden Age Royals peaked in 2015 by winning a World Series, baseball in Kansas City has been a struggle. Teams have been bad early, and they’ve been bad often. And with the huge number of games every year, the deluge of meaningless contests has grated against my psyche like the relentless river smoothing out the rock.

I wanted to quantify just how bad it’s been over these last 11 years. While games played mathematically eliminated from contention might be technically correct, it doesn’t cover those games in June and July and August whose outcomes don’t change the trajectory of the team whatsoever, and it doesn’t cover those games in September where a decent team is just far enough out of realistic hope for wins to really make an impact. So I chose a big round number: 10 games behind first place in the American League Central. I took a look at when each team first got there, how many they played in a given season, and the percentage of games played 10 games behind.

The results are harrowing. The Kansas City Royals have fallen to 10 or more games behind first place every yearin the last 11 seasons at least once. In total, they’ve played 1,626 games over that time period—nearly 47% of which have been played that far back in the standings. And the average time the Royals reached 10 games back? Game 63, which lines up around the first week of June.

Sports games are fun in and of themselves, but they are most fun when the games are played competently and when those games matter. And in nearly half of all games played over the last decade plus, those games just haven’t mattered; win or loss, the season’s outcome was all but settled anyway.

One time when I was a kid, I thought about shifting my allegiance across state lines. The St. Louis Cardinals were good. They had a fun hat with a bird on it. Why not root for them? That would be more fun, wouldn’t it?

But I just couldn’t do it. I cared about the Royals in a way that I didn’t care about the Cardinals and never would. The Royals were, are, my team. It’s irrational, but so is much about what we love. Relationships with sports teams are tied up in family, in history, in civic pride, in emotion. I couldn’t decouple my affinity for this team. I have tried not to care. It has not worked.

The first game I wrote about after I got back from my trip was Tuesday’s game against the Twins, which was a painful walkoff loss following an excellent start by Seth Lugo. Or, it should have been painful. When it happened, I just sort of shrugged. Another bullpen implosion, another day ending in ‘Y’, as it were. The Royals’ playoff odds were already below ground level.

I don’t have a point here much beyond this, but that’s fine. I’m just tired of meaningless baseball. I’ve followed so much meaningless baseball—and there was much of it before the Royals’ mid-2010s run, too. The weight of it has built up like plaque on my teeth, and I fear that it will be years before we experience meaningful baseball again.

The MLB Draft took place on July 11th and 12th, but the deadline for teams to sign their draftees was on Monday, July 27th at 5 pm eastern. Most of the negotiations between organizations and players occurs before the name is ever called, but there’s still work to be done to finalize the details in the two weeks post-draft.

In some situations, i.e. Logan Schmidt, there’s a lot that has to happen in those 15 days. For the most part, things eventually get settled and scenarios play out the way they were expected once selections are made during the draft. All 8 of LSU’s players that got drafted have signed their professional deals as they take the next step in their career.

As you have likely heard by this point, the Tigers were able to get 6 of the top-100 ranked high school players through the draft and on their way to Baton Rouge. It’s not just top-heavy, either. There’s true depth up and down the class, making for an exciting future.

Although it’s fairly self-explanatory, each player listed will include the amount he received for his signing bonus. The slot value for their selection is also included, showing what was negotiated between player and team. For rounds 11-20, the slot value is a static number that is built in to MLB teams’ bonus pool. Anything over $150K comes out of their pool, but as long as they stay at or under that figure, the bonus does not count against them in total.

LSU Players

Derek Curiel (OF) – 1st round, #5 overall—Signed: $6,200,000 Slot: $8,336,500

Curiel was the last of any LSU-related draftee to sign his deal, but it was never in doubt that he eventually would. Signing for $2 million under slot is a tad surprising, but the $6.2 million figure that he got does line more up with picks 9-12, which is mostly where he was expected to be selected heading in to the draft. Pittsburgh got to save 25% of the slot value for the #5 pick to utilize later and the sophomore CF gets to join former Tigers Paul Skenes and Jared Jones in an organization on the rise.

Jake Brown (OF) – 2nd round, #65 overall—Signed: $1,382,600 Slot: $1,382,600

We believed based on end-of-season and pre-draft conversations that there was a slight chance that Jake Brown could choose to return for his senior season at LSU. He would have had to slide in to the 3rd round and get offered less than seven figures for that to happen, though. At the end of the day, the Mariners made a fantastic decision and Brown gets to join Kade Anderson in hopes to quickly move up the minors, as well.

Deven Sheerin (RHP) – 4th round, #128 overall—Signed: $600,000 Slot: $597,400

Not many anticipated the possibility of Sheerin returning for another year in Baton Rouge, but he did have two more season of eligibility even regardless of the new 5-for-5 rule. For him to get selected in the 4th round as a relief pitcher shows how high he was valued, though. Getting drafted that high and offered that much money as a non-starter is typically rare. Sheerin has a bright future with the Phillies as he continues to refine his mechanics and get even stronger.

Grant Fontenot (RHP) – 10th round, #299 overall—Signed: $72,500 Slot: $195,600

Getting as much money as Fontenot did as a senior-sign is fantastic. Especially for a guy that did not pitch a whole lot in his college career. Upper 90s and strike-throwing is a good combination, though, and will always get you an opportunity.

Santiago Garcia (LHP) – 12th round, #372 overall—Signed: $150,000 Slot: $150,000

I was actually a bit surprised that Garcia lasted as long as he did and he only got the base $150K. A lefty that throws mid-90s and still had eligibility can often garner a higher offer, but a call from a solid organization like the Blue Jays can factor in to taking less than a player’s number if he feels like it’s the right opportunity.

Connor Benge (RHP) – 13th round, #385 overall—Signed: $122,500 Slot: $150,000

As a senior, six figures for Benge is fantastic. His fastball is electric, so if Miami can help develop his command, he could be well worth the price.

Gavin Guidry (RHP) – 16th round, #480 overall—Signed: $150,000 Slot: $150,000

It was amazing to see Guidry get this opportunity with how his LSU career finished. He burst on to the scene after moving from SS to P during his freshman year and became one of the most important pitchers on a championship team. He followed that up with a better sophomore year, but the troubles started with a back injury that shut him down for his entire junior season. His return in 2026 got off to a great start, but I am of the belief that as the season went along, his arm/back wore down and his performance slipped. His upside is still through the roof, though. The Mets made a great call by getting Guidry in to their system.

Zac Cowan (RHP) – 19th round, #573 overall—Signed: $100,000 Slot: $150,000

Cowan will be an interesting career path to watch. As good as he was in college, he’ll need to add more to his repertoire if he hopes to ascend in the Guardians system. His changeup is elite, but we saw, at times, how he could get in trouble if that pitch wasn’t as sharp as it could be. Cleveland will likely try to add some velocity to his low-90s fastball, but if he can turn his slider in to another plus-pitch, it would work great with the changeup.

LSU Signees

Logan Schmidt (LHP) – 2nd round, #59 overall—Signed: N/A Slot: $1,598,900

By far the most interesting story of the draft (and post-draft) for LSU, possibly overall. It was immediately assumed that he would sign with Cleveland after his name was called, rightfully so, but the deadline came and went and the fresh 18 year old decided to stick to his higher asking price and reject the $1.7 million offer that the Guardians had left in their bonus pool. He is now weighing the decision of upholding his commitment to LSU or taking the path of JUCO and re-entering the draft in 2027. Here is my full breakdown of the entire situation, explaining what has already happened and what is to come.

Jensen Hirschkorn (RHP) – 3rd round, #84 overall—Signed: $3,997,500 Slot: $973,700

Although he was considered a longshot to make it to campus, the possibility of Hirschkorn slipping through the draft was increasing throughout day 1. That was until the Braves called and offered him a record-breaking $3 million over-slot offer.

Wessley Roberson (OF) – 4th round, #115 overall—Signed: $1,197,500 Slot: $677,500

Another one that was never really expected to make it to campus, Roberson nearly doubled up on his slot value and will head straight to the Marlins organization. With LSU getting guys like Malachi Washington and Nate Davis to campus, this was one that you could live with as the outfield is already jam-packed.

Dylan Blomker (RHP) – 5th round, #159 overall—Signed: $888,000 Slot: $441,300

Thought as more likely to make it to campus, Blomker had a reported asking price of $800k-$1 million according to Koki Riley of The Advocate and that’s exactly what he got. He’ll head to the Cubs farm system after doubling his slot value.

Spencer Evans (LHP) – 11th round, #318 overall—Signed: $300,000 Slot: $150,000

This was probably the most surprising loss to the recruiting class, as Evans was thought to be a pretty sure bet to make it to Baton Rouge. This was also around the time that it was becoming clear that high-level prep pitchers across the country were deciding not to take less than their asking price and staying patient. Pittsburgh saw an opportunity to offer much more than Evans may have been anticipating and can start working on making him a steal.

Will Adams (1B) – 11th round, #336 overall—Signed: $1,000,000 Slot: $150,000

Considered a 50/50 guy to make it to LSU, it was going to take a heck of an offer to get him to pass on college. That’s exactly what Detroit gave him, allotting $850,000 extra out of their bonus pool after saving money earlier in the draft. The Tigers are getting a versatile player that can play 1st base or corner outfield and already considered a polished hitter.

Anthony Murphy (OF) – 16th round, #466 overall—Signed: N/A Slot: $150,000

Of all of the outfielders in LSU’s recruiting class, Murphy was the least likely to make it to campus. Somehow, he was unable to find a landing spot with his requested number and he slipped to this point where the Nationals drafted him to try and cash in on his desire to go straight from high school to pro ball. Murphy, instead, chose to head to college, but it will not be with his original commitment, LSU. Due to his age, he’ll again be eligible for the draft following his sophomore season in 2028. With just two years to make his case to get drafted higher, he was seeking a clearer path to playing time and due to how deep Jay Johnson’s outfield is, that would not be the case with the Tigers. He requested to be released from his commitment, which he was, and has since committed to Miami.

Malachi Washington (OF) – 18th round, #528 overall—Signed: N/A Slot: $150,000

Taken as a lottery ticket by the Pirates, Washington was set on heading to LSU by this point in the draft, but Pittsburgh selected him in case something fell through with one of their top picks and they’d have the bonus pool money available to spend here.

Dominic Santarelli (OF/1B) – 18th round, #550 overall—Signed: N/A Slot: $150,000

This was the exact same situation as Malachi Washington. Santarelli didn’t get the offer he was looking for earlier and was preparing his purple and gold, but the Mariners selected him just in case something change.

Our 35th entry is James Mouton, who’d debut with the Astros in the outfield in 1994 on Opening Day.   He’d play in over 400 games for Houston throughout portions of four seasons, and he joins us exclusively at The Crawfish Boxes.    

Q: You didn’t stay in the minors that long; you were promoted fairy quickly.    Did the rapid ascension surprise you?

A: Not really.    I was older.   I had graduated St. Mary’s College and came out as a Senior.    They knew they could push me a little bit harder and a little bit quicker because I was older and a little bit more mature than some guys.    It felt very natural the pace I was on.

Q: Opening Day 1994 was one of the more thrilling openers in Astros history.    It culminated in walk-off fashion in a 6-5 extra inning win over the Expos, which was your first opening day start.  What does that day conjure up for you?

A: It was terrific!    We were a team that were coming into our own.   We were trying to build something there.  The Astros were back to being a formidable opponent.    That was a great win because it signified what was ultimately coming ahead from us at that time.   

Q: Of course, 1994 ended prematurely with the lockout.    When you hear the rhetoric going on present day and the uncertainty of the 2027 season, what goes through your mind?   

A: I hope things get done.    Baseball is in a great place right now and it can only get better and better, but we cannot have a work stoppage.     Things have to keep going and getting better in order for the game to thrive.    There was a time during that 1998 season where they were at a crossroads and without the homerun chase, I think we would’ve been in real trouble.   It’s pretty simple.   We need baseball to continue, and the product needs to be on the field.   

Q: You played multiple seasons with Bagwell and Biggio.   Did you know way back then that they’d ultimately land in Cooperstown?

A: You know, Biggio was always super athletic.   He came out every single day looking to play hard and go hard.    When he surpassed 3000 hits, that was just awesome.    Bagwell, I thought he’d get there eventually but the injuries impacted his numbers.   His stats would be even more impressive without some of those injuries.   

Q: You’ve been around the game as a scout.    How do you go about measuring the intangibles?    Such as a guy’s work ethic or love of the game and their passion?     Things that don’t always show up in the box score.   

A: I like to watch players in situations.   I like to see what happens when things don’t go well. How will a guy handle adversity?  What does a guy expect from himself?    What does he expect to happen next?    Everyone can be good when things are going well but what happens when things go sideways?    How does a guy get past that?    Do they have a positive attitude and work past that?    Those are the guys that I find that are ready to play pro ball. 

Four games, all decided by six or more runs. It was a day of blowouts in the Dodgers minor league system.

Player of the day

With a double and a pair of singles, Zach Ehrhard took advantage of the opportunities presented to him, being the protagonist of a Comets 9-2 win at home.

Ehrhard, who came into the game with the same number of RBI (65) he had last season, added four more, delivering a terrific campaign in Triple-A.

Triple-A Oklahoma City

Timely hits with a better than .500 display across 11 at-bats with runners in scoring position led to a blowout win over the Aviators. Chuckie Robinson continues to hit long balls in Triple-A, but his was the only home run that the Comets needed.

Each with three hits at the top of the Comets order, Alek Thomas and Zach Ehrhard came through in the biggest spots; the pair combined for seven of the team’s nine RBI. Pitching-wise, it was a collective effort with four different relievers covering eight innings after Carlos Duran allowed a run in the first inning, the only one he pitched in.

Double-A Tulsa

Leading six to nothing after just three innings, the Drillers were never threatened by the Naturals in a 9-to-3 win. Jake Gelof, who had been phenomenal in the previous two games, recorded one RBI in what was more of a team effort this time around. First baseman Chris Newell had your standard three-true outcome game, with a homer, a walk, and three punchouts—the other Drillers home run came from ninth-hole hitter Sam Mongelli.

Part of what made this win especially comfortable for the Drillers is that starter Adam Serwinowski delivered a terrific performance on the mound, allowing just one run on a single hit, a solo shot. Serwinowski now moves to an 8-4 record.

High-A Great Lakes

Eleven runs on nothing but singles, walks, and errors from the opposing defense in yet another blowout win in the Dodgers’ minor-league system, with the Loons putting 11 past the TinCaps. Emil Morales was the most effective hitter of the game, reaching safely in all but one of his five plate appearances and scoring a team-high three runs.

Pitching at a higher level for the first time this season, starter Hyun-Seok Jang did better than anyone expected, with six scoreless innings, striking out eight, much different from the pitcher who had a near 6.00 ERA with the Tower Buzzers.

Single-A Ontario

Evidently, blowouts were the theme of the day, as the Tower Buzzers suffered the only loss of these four teams, giving up a dozen runs in a game in which the bullpen was disastrous late on. Over half of those runs came after the seventh inning, when Jose Vasquez and Peter Bonilla combined to allow seven in just two frames.

Avoiding the loss might’ve been too big a task, but the Tower Buzzers had chances to make this score respectably close, eleven of them to be precise. Yes, the Tower Buzzers went a combined 0 for 11 with runners in scoring position. Mairoshendrick Martinus and Kellon Lindsey reached base four times each, and neither scored a run.

Transactions

Right-hander Hyun-Seok Jang was sent to the Great Lakes Loons.

Thursday’s scores

• Oklahoma City 9, Las Vegas 2
• Tulsa 9, NW Arkansas 3
• Great Lakes 11, Fort Wayne 1
• Ontario 2. Fresno 12

Friday’s schedule

• 4:05 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Brady Smith) vs. Fort Wayne (TBD)
• 5:00 p.m. PT: Tulsa (Zach Root) vs. NW Arkansas (Steven Zobac)
• 5:05 p.m. PT: Oklahoma City (TBD) vs. Las Vegas (TBD)
• 6:35 p.m. PT: Ontario (TBD) vs. Fresno (Bryson Van Sickle)

Hello everyone, and happy Friday!

The Mariners closed out their road trip with a whimper, dropping the series finale to the Dodgers 6-2.

The team is in a rut, so I’m not going to ask you about them. Instead: what do you have planned for this upcoming weekend?

In Mariners news…

• In case you missed it, the Mariners are hosting a special “Jimothy Night” on August 7th. For every ticket sold, the team is donating $2 to the Ballard Food Bank.
• Despite the Mariners’ recent slide, Cal Raleigh gave his pitch for the team to buy at the deadline.

Around the league…

• The Twins are officially buyers, trading for Mets left-handed reliever A.J. Minter for a pair of prospects.
• In a surprise pre-deadline move, the Tigers are calling up top outfield prospect Max Clark.
• The Diamondbacks are pulling old friend Paul Sewald from the closer role and moving to a committee approach to the 9th inning moving forward.
• This is about as come-from-behind as it gets in just one swing.

• The New York Mets are the first MLB team to sign an exclusive rights deal with a prediction partner, agreeing to terms with the startup Novig.
• Funny thing about that partnership…

• A Florida collector pulled a 1-of-1 Shohei Ohtani card and immediately sold it for more than $10M.
• Michael Baumann at Fangraphs opines that the Brewers and Rays are under the most pressure to acquire left-hander Tarik Skubal.
• Baseball Prospectus has developed an injury recovery tool to help you understand how long a player is expected to be out of action depending on the type and severity of injury.
• It’s interesting that the Mariners are seen as the most reactive on this chart. This to me is an example of the “Trader Jerry” moniker sticking around in the industry even though he has substantially cooled off in his twitchiness since his first few years.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers are -120 favorites Friday night as they play host to the hottest team in baseball, the Boston Red Sox. 

With Ranger Suarez at the top of his game and backed by an elite bullpen, my Red Sox vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks believe the value lies with the road team.

Who will win Red Sox vs Dodgers tonight: Boston Red Sox (+105)

Ranger Suarez has pitched at an elite level this season. He ranks in the 94th percentile in Pitcher Run Value, the 93rd percentile in average exit velocity, and is striking out 9.72 batters per nine innings – the best mark of his career.

There’s every reason to believe he can hold up against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who surprisingly rank 20th in OPS during the month of July.

I give the Boston Red Sox a 54% chance of winning this game, and am happy to take the plus-money price. Bet to -115.

COVERS INTEL:Suarez owns a 2.17 FIP on the road this season, the best mark among today's projected starters.

Red Sox vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+100)

Suarez (3.02 ERA, 3.19 xFIP) has posted excellent run suppression numbers and deservedly so.

He has not only done a great job of limiting fly balls, but also homers. Suarez has allowed 0.47 homers per nine innings, and 0.36 HR/9 on the road.

The Dodgers aren't in great form offensively, and that's not handedness specific. Los Angeles slots 18th against lefties in wOBA this month.

I don't see the Red Sox, who are 16th in wOBA vs. righties in July, lighting up the Dodgers bullpen, and that's probably necessary to go Over.

Play the Under to -120.

Red Sox vs Dodgers weather

The forecast calls for temperatures hovering around 80 with winds blowing out. Bats will see a boost.

Red Sox vs Dodgers odds

• Moneyline: Red Sox +100 | Dodgers -120
• Run line: Red Sox +1.5 (-200) | Dodgers -1.5 (+165)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)

Red Sox vs Dodgers trend

Los Angeles has hit the Game Total Under in 30 of its last 50 games at home (+815 units, 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Red Sox vs Dodgers and game info

Red Sox vs Dodgers latest injuries

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Today’s news and notes will be combined with a series preview since I am short on time headed to the Trade Deadline.

Tonight, the Guardians begin a weekend series with the Arizona Diamondbacks leading up to Monday’s MLB trade deadline. Tonight’s forecast looks wonderful but Saturday and Sunday MAY be challenges with thunderstorms rolling in.

The Diamondbacks are tied with Cleveland in team wRC+ at 93, and their starting pitching is 14th in ERA while their relief pitching is 17th. They are somehow 57-52 with a 0 run differential, though, and in second place in the NL West. Teams are hoping to trade for players from Arizona, but I’d guess the DBacks will be buying.

Pitching Matchups: Friday, 7:10PM ET, Bibee RHP, 3.89 ERA vs. Bratt LHP, 6.32 ERA; Saturday, 7:15PM Messick LHP, 2.59 ERA vs. Drake LHP 5.00 ERA; Sunday, 1:40PM Williams RHP 3.71 ERA vs. Kelly 4.66 ERA. Sure would be nice to see the Guardians dominate a National League team this weekend with favorable pitching matchups on deck.

AROUND MLB:

The White Sox and Twins won in walk-offs and the Twins added lefty reliever A.J. Minter from the Mets. None of those items of news are positive for us.