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Four games, all decided by six or more runs. It was a day of blowouts in the Dodgers minor league system.

Player of the day

With a double and a pair of singles, Zach Ehrhard took advantage of the opportunities presented to him, being the protagonist of a Comets 9-2 win at home.

Ehrhard, who came into the game with the same number of RBI (65) he had last season, added four more, delivering a terrific campaign in Triple-A.

Triple-A Oklahoma City

Timely hits with a better than .500 display across 11 at-bats with runners in scoring position led to a blowout win over the Aviators. Chuckie Robinson continues to hit long balls in Triple-A, but his was the only home run that the Comets needed.

Each with three hits at the top of the Comets order, Alek Thomas and Zach Ehrhard came through in the biggest spots; the pair combined for seven of the team’s nine RBI. Pitching-wise, it was a collective effort with four different relievers covering eight innings after Carlos Duran allowed a run in the first inning, the only one he pitched in.

Double-A Tulsa

Leading six to nothing after just three innings, the Drillers were never threatened by the Naturals in a 9-to-3 win. Jake Gelof, who had been phenomenal in the previous two games, recorded one RBI in what was more of a team effort this time around. First baseman Chris Newell had your standard three-true outcome game, with a homer, a walk, and three punchouts—the other Drillers home run came from ninth-hole hitter Sam Mongelli.

Part of what made this win especially comfortable for the Drillers is that starter Adam Serwinowski delivered a terrific performance on the mound, allowing just one run on a single hit, a solo shot. Serwinowski now moves to an 8-4 record.

High-A Great Lakes

Eleven runs on nothing but singles, walks, and errors from the opposing defense in yet another blowout win in the Dodgers’ minor-league system, with the Loons putting 11 past the TinCaps. Emil Morales was the most effective hitter of the game, reaching safely in all but one of his five plate appearances and scoring a team-high three runs.

Pitching at a higher level for the first time this season, starter Hyun-Seok Jang did better than anyone expected, with six scoreless innings, striking out eight, much different from the pitcher who had a near 6.00 ERA with the Tower Buzzers.

Single-A Ontario

Evidently, blowouts were the theme of the day, as the Tower Buzzers suffered the only loss of these four teams, giving up a dozen runs in a game in which the bullpen was disastrous late on. Over half of those runs came after the seventh inning, when Jose Vasquez and Peter Bonilla combined to allow seven in just two frames.

Avoiding the loss might’ve been too big a task, but the Tower Buzzers had chances to make this score respectably close, eleven of them to be precise. Yes, the Tower Buzzers went a combined 0 for 11 with runners in scoring position. Mairoshendrick Martinus and Kellon Lindsey reached base four times each, and neither scored a run.

Transactions

Right-hander Hyun-Seok Jang was sent to the Great Lakes Loons.

Thursday’s scores

• Oklahoma City 9, Las Vegas 2
• Tulsa 9, NW Arkansas 3
• Great Lakes 11, Fort Wayne 1
• Ontario 2. Fresno 12

Friday’s schedule

• 4:05 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Brady Smith) vs. Fort Wayne (TBD)
• 5:00 p.m. PT: Tulsa (Zach Root) vs. NW Arkansas (Steven Zobac)
• 5:05 p.m. PT: Oklahoma City (TBD) vs. Las Vegas (TBD)
• 6:35 p.m. PT: Ontario (TBD) vs. Fresno (Bryson Van Sickle)

Hello everyone, and happy Friday!

The Mariners closed out their road trip with a whimper, dropping the series finale to the Dodgers 6-2.

The team is in a rut, so I’m not going to ask you about them. Instead: what do you have planned for this upcoming weekend?

In Mariners news…

• In case you missed it, the Mariners are hosting a special “Jimothy Night” on August 7th. For every ticket sold, the team is donating $2 to the Ballard Food Bank.
• Despite the Mariners’ recent slide, Cal Raleigh gave his pitch for the team to buy at the deadline.

Around the league…

• The Twins are officially buyers, trading for Mets left-handed reliever A.J. Minter for a pair of prospects.
• In a surprise pre-deadline move, the Tigers are calling up top outfield prospect Max Clark.
• The Diamondbacks are pulling old friend Paul Sewald from the closer role and moving to a committee approach to the 9th inning moving forward.
• This is about as come-from-behind as it gets in just one swing.

• The New York Mets are the first MLB team to sign an exclusive rights deal with a prediction partner, agreeing to terms with the startup Novig.
• Funny thing about that partnership…

• A Florida collector pulled a 1-of-1 Shohei Ohtani card and immediately sold it for more than $10M.
• Michael Baumann at Fangraphs opines that the Brewers and Rays are under the most pressure to acquire left-hander Tarik Skubal.
• Baseball Prospectus has developed an injury recovery tool to help you understand how long a player is expected to be out of action depending on the type and severity of injury.
• It’s interesting that the Mariners are seen as the most reactive on this chart. This to me is an example of the “Trader Jerry” moniker sticking around in the industry even though he has substantially cooled off in his twitchiness since his first few years.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers are -120 favorites Friday night as they play host to the hottest team in baseball, the Boston Red Sox. 

With Ranger Suarez at the top of his game and backed by an elite bullpen, my Red Sox vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks believe the value lies with the road team.

Who will win Red Sox vs Dodgers tonight: Boston Red Sox (+105)

Ranger Suarez has pitched at an elite level this season. He ranks in the 94th percentile in Pitcher Run Value, the 93rd percentile in average exit velocity, and is striking out 9.72 batters per nine innings – the best mark of his career.

There’s every reason to believe he can hold up against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who surprisingly rank 20th in OPS during the month of July.

I give the Boston Red Sox a 54% chance of winning this game, and am happy to take the plus-money price. Bet to -115.

COVERS INTEL:Suarez owns a 2.17 FIP on the road this season, the best mark among today's projected starters.

Red Sox vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+100)

Suarez (3.02 ERA, 3.19 xFIP) has posted excellent run suppression numbers and deservedly so.

He has not only done a great job of limiting fly balls, but also homers. Suarez has allowed 0.47 homers per nine innings, and 0.36 HR/9 on the road.

The Dodgers aren't in great form offensively, and that's not handedness specific. Los Angeles slots 18th against lefties in wOBA this month.

I don't see the Red Sox, who are 16th in wOBA vs. righties in July, lighting up the Dodgers bullpen, and that's probably necessary to go Over.

Play the Under to -120.

Red Sox vs Dodgers weather

The forecast calls for temperatures hovering around 80 with winds blowing out. Bats will see a boost.

Red Sox vs Dodgers odds

• Moneyline: Red Sox +100 | Dodgers -120
• Run line: Red Sox +1.5 (-200) | Dodgers -1.5 (+165)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)

Red Sox vs Dodgers trend

Los Angeles has hit the Game Total Under in 30 of its last 50 games at home (+815 units, 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Red Sox vs Dodgers and game info

Red Sox vs Dodgers latest injuries

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Today’s news and notes will be combined with a series preview since I am short on time headed to the Trade Deadline.

Tonight, the Guardians begin a weekend series with the Arizona Diamondbacks leading up to Monday’s MLB trade deadline. Tonight’s forecast looks wonderful but Saturday and Sunday MAY be challenges with thunderstorms rolling in.

The Diamondbacks are tied with Cleveland in team wRC+ at 93, and their starting pitching is 14th in ERA while their relief pitching is 17th. They are somehow 57-52 with a 0 run differential, though, and in second place in the NL West. Teams are hoping to trade for players from Arizona, but I’d guess the DBacks will be buying.

Pitching Matchups: Friday, 7:10PM ET, Bibee RHP, 3.89 ERA vs. Bratt LHP, 6.32 ERA; Saturday, 7:15PM Messick LHP, 2.59 ERA vs. Drake LHP 5.00 ERA; Sunday, 1:40PM Williams RHP 3.71 ERA vs. Kelly 4.66 ERA. Sure would be nice to see the Guardians dominate a National League team this weekend with favorable pitching matchups on deck.

AROUND MLB:

The White Sox and Twins won in walk-offs and the Twins added lefty reliever A.J. Minter from the Mets. None of those items of news are positive for us.

Hi there!

As you know, Thomas Smith is away on vacation.

To keep this feature going, I’m going to post simply the WPA numbers and plays of the game, and a poll so you can vote on your choice for Player of the Game. Thomas will update the Rizzo Award standings when he returns.

Game 109, July 30: Cubs 4, Cardinals 2 (62-47)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Jacob Webb (.213). 1.1 IP, H
• Hero: Alex Bregman (.209). 2-4, 2 2B, 2R
• Sidekick: Aaron Civale (.116). 0.2 IP, K, SV

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Michael Conforto (-.157). 0-4.
• Goat: Caleb Thielbar (-.145). IP, R, HR
• Kid: Carson Kelly (-.133). 1-4.

Ian Happ’s RBI double in the 10th has him at .102, good for fourth place for this game.

WPA Play of the Game: JJ Wetherholt’s game-tying homer off Caleb Thielbar in the seventh (.243).

Cubs Play of the Game: Michael Busch’s RBI single in the top of the seventh (.191).

The two plays above were the top two WPA plays of the entire game. Bregman’s RBI double in the 10th was next at .165.

Up next: The Yankees visit Wrigley Field. Shōta Imanaga will throw the series opener Friday against Yankees right-hander Will Warren.

As Thomas would say: Keep stacking wins.

Welp, it looks like the Yankees offense is back in the toilet after a promising start to their series against the White Sox. They have failed to score in 28 of their last 32 innings played, scoring just two unearned runs in their last 22 innings. With just one dependable hitter in their lineup in Ben Rice, you just don’t seen an avenue toward improvement until the likes of Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Giancarlo Stanton return from injury as it remains highly improbable that they add multiple impact bats before the MLB Trade Deadline on Monday. Instead, their pitching staff will have to continues to shoulder the load while they await the returns of their big boppers.

Tampa Bay Rays (64-44) 3, Texas Rangers (55-54) 2

Looking at the starting pitching matchups — the Rangers opting for a bullpen game while the Rays threw out their ace Shane McClanahan — you wouldn’t have thought this would have finished as close as it did. Part of that is down to the performance of the Rangers’ opener and bulk reliever, Cole Winn and Marco Gonzales combining to throw four innings of one-run ball. The other part is down to the misfortune suffered by Shane McClanahan.

Despite pitching a no-hitter through the first three innings, McClanahan’s velocity dropped precipitously when he came back out for the fourth and his command abandoned him. He plunked Ezequiel Duran and walked Brandon Nimmo to open the frame, prompting the trainer to come out and check on him, McClanahan immediately exiting the game. The injury is described as mid-back tightness, which is notable given McClanahan endured IL stints in 2021 and 2023 with back tightness and missed the entirety of the 2024 and 2025 seasons to Tommy John surgery and left triceps surgery, respectively. The Rays were already rumored to be one of the four teams most aggressively pursuing Tarik Skubal alongside the Dodgers, Brewers, and Braves, and you wonder whether this injury creates further impetus for Tampa to pull off that blockbuster despite it running counter to the way they normally conduct business.

Back to the game, the Rays opened the scoring in the third as Hunter Feduccia reached on a two-out double and Yandy Díaz plated him with a single. They would load the bases from there on a Jonathan Aranda single and Junior Caminero walk, but Gonzales got Cedric Mullins to ground out to strand all three in place. After McClanahan departed with a pair on and no outs in the fourth, Duran advanced to third on a Jake Burger fly out and scored on a fielding error by Taylor Walls on a Joc Pederson grounder.

Wyatt Langford grabbed a lead for his team the following inning with an RBI double after Alejandro Osuna reached on a one-out single. However, the Rays bullpen was shutdown from there, allowing Jonny DeLuca and Mullins to complete the comeback. DeLuca tied the game with a solo shot in the sixth and Mullins got just enough of a first-pitch fastball from Ben Peoples for the game-winning solo shot with two outs in the eighth. With the win and Yankees loss, the Rays extend their lead in the division to 3.5 games.

Other Games

Boston Red Sox (57-51) 5, The Athletics (45-64) 4

Sonny Gray did manage to give the Red Sox seven innings, though he did surrender four runs on seven hits and two walks in the process. The Athletics meanwhile got five innings of three run ball from rookie Mason Barnett. The A’s jumped out to an early lead, opening the scoring on a third inning RBI single from Jacob Wilson before adding two more in the fourth on an RBI double from Lawrence Butler and an RBI single from Donovan Walton, the A’s then loading the bases only for a Wilson pop out to end the inning.

Boston immediately made them pay for stranding those three runners by scoring three in the top half of the following frame. Andruw Monnasterio hit an RBI single and Ceddanne Rafaela a two-run double, the Red Sox aided by a pair of errors in the inning. Carlos Cortes grabbed the lead back for the A’s in the sixth with a sac fly after Butler led off with a double. However, Wilyer Abreu and Willson Contreras called game in the eighth, leading off the inning with back-to-back home runs as the win takes the Red Sox within 3.5 games of the Yankees for second place — just as close as the Yankees are to the first-place Rays.

Los Angeles Dodgers (69-40) 6, Seattle Mariners (53-57) 2

Bryan Woo made the shortlist of several publications’ preseason Cy Young candidate rankings, but his nightmare season continued tonight with five runs allowed on five hits and two walks in five innings. Meanwhile, Roki Sasaki continued to enjoy improved velocity and an uptick in strikeouts with 5.1 innings of two-run ball, striking out seven. Mookie Betts struck in the first with a two-out, two-run double after the first two batters reached. Dalton Rushing added three more in the fourth with a three-run tank after Kyle Tucker walked and Teoscar Hernández singled. Seattle broke up the shutout in the sixth, Cole Young leading off with a triple and scoring on a Randy Arozarena double before a Cal Raleigh walk with the bases loaded brought Arozarena home, the Mariners going on to strand three ducks on the pond. Teoscar wrapped up the scoring with a solo shot in the seventh.

JP Sears got the start for the San Diego Padres and allowed three runs on seven hits over 3.2 innings. The 3-0 deficit after an inning-and-a-half proved to be too much for the Padres to overcome as they suffered a 4-1 loss to the San Francisco Giants in the series opener at Petco Park on Thursday night.

Sears got Luis Arraez to pop out for the first out of the game but then issues a walk and allowed a single to put runners at first and second for the Giants. With runners at first and third, Sears allowed a sacrifice fly, which was really a home run robbery by Fernando Tatis Jr. at the wall in right-center field, to Rafael Devers which gave San Francisco a 1-0 lead just four batters into the game. Sears got out of the inning one batter later on a ground out, but San Diego was playing from behind before the first turn at-bat.

The top of the second inning started worse for Sears as he allowed a leadoff single to Willy Adames before allowing a two-run home run to Daniel Susac that put the Giants ahead 3-0. Sears bounced back to retire the next three batters. The Padres responded with a run in the bottom of the second inning when Xander Bogaerts hit a two-out RBI-single to cut the deficit to 3-1.

That was all the San Diego lineup was able to get off San Francisco starter Robbie Ray. The left-hander completed six innings and allowed one run on four hits with one walk and six strikeouts. The Padres were only able to manage one additional hit off Giants relievers. San Francisco was able to add another run in the top of the fifth inning when Susac collected his third RBI on a sacrifice fly to center field which allowed Devers to score to put the Giants ahead, 4-1.

The Padres will try to get back to their winning ways tonight when they take on the Giants for the second game of the series at 6:45 p.m.

Padres News:

• Dennis Lin of The Athletic says the Padres have played themselves back into playoff contention thanks to their recent five-game win streak.

• The Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks are two teams scouting New York Mets starter Freddy Peralta according to a report from MLB Trade Rumors.

Baseball News:

• The Chicago White Sox walked off the New York Yankees for the second day in a row.

• Alex Bregman led the Chicago Cubs to an extra-innings win over the St. Louis Cardinals.

• The Atlanta Braves knocked off the Washington Nationals.

• The Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Seattle Mariners, 6-2.

• Elly De La Cruz led the Cincinnati Reds over the Pittburgh Pirates.

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The first-place Tampa Bay Rays open their series against the Chicago White Sox tonight as -144 favorites at home, with veteran right-hander Nick Martinez getting the start.

Martinez has been one of Tampa Bay's most reliable arms this season, and my White Sox vs. Rays predictions back the Rays to extend their winning streak to three games.

Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, July 31. 

Who will win White Sox vs Rays today: Rays moneyline (-142)

The Tampa Bay Rays continue to play well, and they will be confident with Nick Martinez on the hill. The righty is in impressive form, posting a 3.21 xERA across his last four appearances.

During that span, he's allowed just 1.19 BB/9 and 0.79 HR/9 while limiting opponents to a 27.4% hard-hit rate. The Chicago White Sox aren't exactly thriving offensively either, posting a 92 wRC+ over the last week. 

As for Erick Fedde, he is having real trouble lately. Fedde sports a 7.78 FIP in his previous two outings, giving up an alarming 4.32 HR/9. The Rays aren't lighting it up at the dish right now, but their home wRC+ sits at 114, compared to a 97 mark on the road. 

Martinez throws another gem, and the Rays capitalize on Fedde's vulnerabilities. 

I'll play this pick up to -160, but no higher. Given Fedde's issues with the long ball, the runline offers value as well. 

COVERS INTEL: Erick Fedde has allowed a 55.6% hard-hit rate over the last month, compared to his season average of 40.5%. This is a clear opportunity for the Rays to jump on him. 

White Sox vs Rays Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 runs (-116)

The Under feels like the logical play tonight. Even though the Rays swing it much better at home, they have produced just a 92 wRC+ over their last six games, matching Chicago’s recent mark. Both bullpen profiles also point to fewer late-game runs once the starters depart.

The Tampa Bay relief corps owns a solid 1.88 xERA over its previous 25.1 frames while holding opponents to a mere 1.6% barrel rate. As for the White Sox pen, it has posted a 3.85 FIP over the last week while surrendering just 0.56 HR/9.

I do expect Fedde to give up some runs, while Martinez should keep Chicago quiet. But once both starters exit, runs could be difficult to come by considering the current form of these bullpens.

I’ll play this pick up to -130.

White Sox vs Rays weather

Outside conditions around Tropicana Field look warm and humid tonight, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-80s. There is some shower risk in the area, but Tropicana Field’s indoor setup means weather should not affect scoring, ball carry, or delay risk.

White Sox vs Rays odds

• Moneyline: Chicago +133 | Tampa Bay -138
• Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-156) | Tampa Bay -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+108) | Under 8.5 (-113)

White Sox vs Rays trend

The Under is 5-0 in Rays' last 5 games as a home favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Rays.

How to watch White Sox vs Rays and game info

White Sox vs Rays latest injuries

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The Nats are now 110 games into the season, and sit at an even 55-55. As we all know, the offense has been electric, even if they have struggled late in games lately. However, the pitching staff, especially the bullpen has been holding this team back. When you add it all up, you get a perfectly average team.

With the third Wild Card in place, being mediocre means you are right in the middle of the playoff race. Before last night’s loss, the Nats were only two games out of a Wild Card spot. With everyone around them losing, the Nats are still only 2.5 games out, in a cluster of five teams that are all within a game of each other.

Should the Nationals put their chips in with the goal of claiming that third Wild Card spot, or should the front office continue to build for the future? Right now, prognosticators give the Nats around a 10% chance of making the playoffs. However, this next week will give us a lot more clarity.

Between the deadline and this 8 game run against the Braves and Phillies, we will learn a lot about where the Nats truly stand. The Nats certainly have a chance to make the playoffs, but this is definitely not a year where I would go all in. There are so many teams clustered together, and the Nats will have to play better than all of them down the stretch to make it in. Is that possible? Sure, but I do not think it is very likely.

There are experienced teams like the Padres, D-Backs and Phillies that the Nats will have to contend with. History tells us that it takes somewhere between 83 and 89 wins to get that third Wild Card spot. Right now, the Phillies and D-Backs are on pace for 85. It is worth pointing out that the Nats have the tiebreaker over the D-Backs.

To get to that mark, the Nationals will need to truly make a run down the stretch. With their offense, you would think that they have the capability to do that. After all, this team does lead all of baseball in runs, homers and steals, joining an illustrious group.

However, the Nats have not really shown the ability to go on long win streaks. The longest win streak of the season is only 4 games, and they only have one sweep all year. This just feels like a team that will hover around .500, but never go on that run because that is who this team has been all season long.

After years of terrible teams, a mediocre one looks amazing in contrast. However, this still is a deeply flawed baseball team. For one, the pitching is not where it needs to be. While the Nats could make moves at the deadline for pitching, this staff is more than just one arm away. There has also been plenty of talk about the Nats trading one of their best arms in Foster Griffin.

While you can make a very strong argument that trading Griffin is good process, it would also be waving the white flag. We have seen how vital Foster Griffin is to this team. He is not someone who can easily be replaced, especially in this pitching starved organization.

This will be something Paul Toboni has to keep in mind at the deadline. There have been conflicting reports on a Foster Griffin extension, but if that could happen, it would be fantastic. However, if that cannot be done, it is likely that Griffin is moved, and it would probably be the right move if you get a good return.

These last four games have shown us that the Nats are just probably not quite ready to go on a run. They are still too young and green. The pitching has not even been the biggest problem in this stretch. Lately, the Nationals have been putrid in high leverage situations and have not been playing clean baseball.

It is probably too premature to say this outright, but last night was a strong indication that this team does not have what it takes to make the playoffs. They were too sloppy, not good enough with RISP and got outfoxed by the Braves. It really looked like a veteran team who has seen it all against a group of green youngsters.

At just 2.5 games back, the Nats are still in the hunt. However, they need to start winning games again, or they will play themselves out of the race. It is painful, but the Nats should trade pieces such as Foster Griffin and Luis Garcia Jr. if the right offer presents itself. If the Nats can snag a controllable reliever though, I would be for that in addition to selling.

I would not trade CJ Abrams though. The goal for this front office should be to do whatever it can to win in 2027 and 2028. This season has shown us that the Nats are close. They just need a lot more pitching and a little bit more experience. Once the offseason rolls around, it is time for the Nats to start going all in.

 However, it is starting to look like buying could be a futile exercise in 2026. 2.5 games does not seem like a lot, but with all the teams the Nats need to pass, it is harder than it looks. 2026 is just the appetizer, these next few years will be the entree.