The Breakdown | Modern Test margins can be wafer thin but winners and losers are clear

The Springboks are head and shoulders above the chasing pack and the Autumn Nations Series has raised the stakes

First among equals There is still the small matter of Ireland v Australia on Saturday but that is not going to alter this autumn’s unavoidable fact: South Africa remain the best team in the world. Or, to boil it down to its essence, the hardest to beat. They can bash teams up, slice them open out wide, kick them to death or simply outlast them: in short, they have every angle covered. The outstanding Pieter-Steph Du Toit was a deserving winner of this year’s men’s World Player of the Year award in Monaco on Sunday but, in truth, it could have been any one of several Springboks. Eben Etzebeth and Ox Nché were right on Du Toit’s tail and Cheslin Kolbe and Siya Kolisi, among others, finished the year in splendid form. France were the other unbeaten autumn side, beating the All Blacks, Argentina and Japan, but Ireland’s sub-par home defeat by New Zealand raised some uneasy questions with Andy Farrell about to switch his focus to the 2025 British & Irish Lions.

Winners and losers Modern Test margins can be wafer thin, as England can testify. But the two sides who have made unquestionable strides since the summer have been Scotland and Australia. The Scots have been building a decent squad for a while, without nailing down all the results they would have wanted. Sunday’s convincing victory over the Wallabies showcased the growing depth and composure of Gregor Townsend’s side; had it not been for a couple of belated Wallaby tries it could have been an even more emphatic statement. Australia, though, were good value for their thrilling win against England and, in the nick of time, have raised hopes of a highly competitive Lions series next year. The biggest losers? Look no further than Wales who have just completed their first winless calendar year since 1937. There is no shame in losing to a team as strong as South Africa but Saturday’s 45-12 home defeat in Cardiff starkly illustrated the issues now facing the Welsh game.

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Warren Gatland is turning into the fall guy for all the failings of Welsh rugby | Andy Bull

Kiwi coach isn’t making the best out of this Wales team, but his troubled reign could finally force the country to confront the state they are in

Two years, four months, and a lifetime ago, a Wales team not so very different from the one that will be on the field on Saturday beat the Springboks 13-12 in Bloemfontein. A lot of good Welsh sides have tried and failed to win in South Africa in the 60 years they’ve been touring. That team, coached by Wayne Pivac, and captained by Dan Biggar, were the first and only one to do it. They might even have won the series except the ifs and buts went against them in the first Test at Loftus Versfeld the previous week, when they lost 32-29 after Damian Willemse kicked a penalty in the final minute.

Wales have fallen a long way in very little time. This time last autumn, or near enough, they were 10-6 up against Argentina at half-time in the quarter-finals of the World Cup. They lost 29-17, and haven’t won a Test since bar an-end-of-season match against the Barbarians. That’s 11 straight defeats. Almost everyone reckons it will be 12 by the time of the final whistle in their match against South Africa on Saturday. A couple of bookmakers have the Springboks at 100-1 on, which is a consequence of the funereal gloom that surrounds Welsh rugby now.

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Borthwick faces up to South Africa in defining test of England’s character | Robert Kitson

A win would resurrect the autumn but a heavy defeat by the world champions could see his team equal an all-time low

Not for the first time in rugby union’s turbulent professional history there is a lot happening. A mooted breakaway global league is the latest curveball threatening to destabilise the sport with even the newly elected chair of World Cup suggesting rugby’s financial sustainability is “at crisis point”. No one, from the top down, can be entirely sure how the medium-term future will pan out.

Much the same, frankly, can be said about England as they prepare to face the double world champions South Africa. A morale-lifting win, by whatever means, would transform an uncertain current narrative and cast their recent string of near misses in a relatively more flattering light. A proper pummelling by a strong Springbok side, on the other hand, could result in them dropping to the equal lowest world ranking in red rose history.

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Rugby’s ‘escort’ crackdown prompts disgruntled Borthwick to change tack | Robert Kitson

Shape of the game has tilted significantly since the latest law tweak that risks tactical monotony and a lack of charm

Steve Borthwick does not normally vent in public so when he does it means he is properly hacked off. “I don’t think any of us want rugby union to turn into Aussie rules,” muttered England’s head coach, not even bothering to downplay his distaste for the new refereeing crackdown on kick chase “escort” defenders that he fears will drag the sport down a path it regrets. “I am not sure everyone wants to watch more kicking and more scrums.”

Slightly ironic, perhaps, coming from a coach whose side barely played any expansive rugby for much of his first year in charge. On  this occasion, though, Borthwick is absolutely within his rights. Inside the last fortnight the shape of the game has tilted significantly, with the odds now in favour of athletic kick chasers who have greater freedom than ever to make life a misery for full-backs underneath high balls.

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Rassie Erasmus expects aerial attack from Borthwick’s struggling England

  • South Africa coach predicts hosts’ Steward selection
  • Boks make 12 changes from team that defeated Scotland

Whatever else South Africa are expecting from England, it’s not a surprise. The Springboks head coach Rassie Erasmus says they picked the team three weeks ago, during a training camp in Jersey. Nothing he’s seen in the way England played against New Zealand and Australia seems to have changed his mind. If anything, the two defeats only confirmed what he already suspected.

“You know, when you lose two games, even if it’s by a point or last-minute try, the pressure does start to build,” Erasmus said, “I’ve been there. I certainly know how quickly it can get to you. And when that happens you normally fall back on to what works for you.”

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Borthwick insists he can handle pressure after Erasmus raises the heat

  • Boks coach suggests Borthwick is under the pump
  • Steward returns as England make four changes

Steve Borthwick has insisted he is well equipped to block out the ­pressure of England’s current plight after Rassie Erasmus suggested he is under the pump and may feel like he “has a gun against his head”.

A number of ex-England ­stalwarts, including Clive Woodward and Will Carling, have taken aim at ­Borthwick after Saturday’s last-gasp defeat by Australia extended his side’s ­losing run to four. He retains the Rugby Football Union’s “100% ­support” but England could slip to eighth in the world rankings should they fail to arrest their ­losing streak against Erasmus’s ­Springboks on ­Saturday in the first meeting between the sides since last year’s ill-tempered World Cup semi-final.

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England will not ‘shut up shop’ against South Africa, insists Henry Slade

  • Slade says squad won’t change mindset on Saturday
  • England have slipped to seventh in world rankings

England are looking to banish their autumn frustrations at South Africa’s expense this Saturday and have vowed “not to shut up shop” against the reigning world champions. Successive defeats by New Zealand and Australia have dropped Steve Borthwick’s side to seventh in the world rankings but the players insist they can confound expectations and turn their month around.

Rather than ditching the high-risk defensive system that has so far conceded eight tries in two games this month, England intend to double down and be even more aggressive with and without the ball in their first rematch against the Springboks since last year’s agonising World Cup semi-final defeat.

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Rassie Erasmus calls on doctor to deliver his message: the Boks are ready

Despite having one day less than England to prepare, South Africa hope Bomb Squad can give impression of strength

When Rassie Erasmus does something out of the ordinary it is usually for a reason, so his surprising decision to put the team doctor up to face the press on Tuesday was no doubt a calculated move. The message was clear, and has been since full-time against Scotland: the Springboks are fresh. And they evidently want everyone to know it.

Equally, you suspect they are not very happy about having a six-day turnaround before facing England. New Zealand made light work of theirs last week but as the all-conquering back-to-back world champions, perhaps it is necessary to engineer perceived slights against yourselves.

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Tommy Freeman vows England will take the fight to ‘human’ South Africa

  • ‘We are going to go properly after them,’ insists wing
  • Springboks are world champions but ‘not unbeatable’

The England wing Tommy Freeman has insisted that all-conquering South Africa are only human and vowed Steve Borthwick’s side will take the fight to the Springboks on Saturday.

After four straight defeats and six in seven against tier-one opposition, England face the daunting task of welcoming the back-to-back world champions to Twickenham. England’s last-gasp defeat by Australia saw Borthwick’s side slip to seventh in the world rankings while the Springboks returned to the summit after their 32-15 win over Scotland.

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Rassie Erasmus preps South Africa for challenge of ‘desperate’ England

  • Springboks head coach expects ‘very, very tough game’
  • England looking for first win of Autumn Nations Series

Rassie Erasmus expects England to bring a sense of frustration to their match against South Africa on Saturday and labelled them “desperate” for a win after two defeats from two in their autumn campaign.

Erasmus’s world champions returned to the world No 1 ranking with a patchy 32-15 victory over Scotland on Sunday as they kicked off their own run of Tests in the northern hemisphere. They now travel to Twickenham to take on Steve Borthwick’s side, who are reeling after suffering two late losses to New Zealand and Australia, 24-22 and 42-37, respectively, having expected to win both on home soil.

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Springboks fail to win hearts with brutal brand of rugby facing Scotland

There will be no love lost between rivals in reruns of World Cup pool matches also including Wales against Fiji

A 50-point frolic against the Fiji second team this will not be. Scotland welcome the Springboks, champions of the southern hemisphere, champions of the world, champions of the sort of rugby to make grown men cower, to Edinburgh on Sunday – and they know this is when it gets ­horribly serious.

It has been faintly amusing, faintly absurd, to watch South Africa’s head coach, Rassie Erasmus, try to mount a charm offensive during the week, all touchy-feely, we-want-to-be-loved one minute, all seven-one-split-on-the-bench, hear-our-roar the next. The Springboks know how to win rugby matches; it seems winning hearts is their next directive.

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Rassie Erasmus: ‘Springboks aren’t the bad guys – but it’s always personal’

Admiration rather than adulation follows South Africa but their controversial coach is launching a charm offensive

South Africa are mounting a charm offensive this autumn. They have won the last two World Cups, their 2021 series against the British & Irish Lions and, in September, clinched a first Rugby Championship title since 2019. Listen to Rassie Erasmus, however, and it is clear the Springboks believe hearts and minds still elude them.

Outside of South Africa, at least. At home they are deified, most of all Erasmus, but the head coach believes that, in the eyes of the rest of the watching world, they are tarred as the villains of the piece. “It has been years, from the Bakkies Botha era, that we are bullies who don’t really care what people think,” he says. “But we do. I care what people think about the players because they are very good guys.”

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