Last offseason, when the Pistons and Jalen Duren discussed a contract extension, he thought they underestimated his value, and the result was that the sides did not agree to a new deal. Then Duren went out this season and showed them what he was worth: 19.5 points a game on 65% shooting, plus 10.5 rebounds while playing elite defense (he was on some Defensive Player of the Year ballots). He is almost certainly going to be an All-NBA player. That led to the expectation Durent had earned a max contract extension this summer, a five-year deal worth at least $239 million, and up to $287 million with that All-NBA nod.
Then the playoffs started.
Duren has struggled this postseason, averaging 10.1 points and 8.3 rebounds per game when the team needs him most, while his lack of outside shooting has helped clog up the Pistons' offense at times. Things got so bad that coach J.B. Bickerstaff played Paul Reed over Duren during the fourth quarter and overtime of a critical Game 5.
Which begs the question, is Duren still worth a max contract? Here is what one front office executive told Brian Windhorst of ESPN:
"He's not a max player, but they're probably going to have to give him the max," an East executive said of Duren. "Because now [cap space] teams like Chicago or Brooklyn might see him as someone they could get with a max offer sheet and Detroit will have to match.
"With the new apron rules, it might come back to bite [the Pistons], and it's just another example of how the CBA crushes team building."
The Pistons need to re-sign both Duren and Ausar Thompson this offseason, two key defenders and part of the culture built in Detroit, but also two non-shooters who have led to spacing problems in the playoffs as Orlando and then Cleveland have thrown multiple defenders at Cade Cunningham and dared anyone else to beat them. If both get huge deals (Thompson will likely get a contract similar to the $25 million a season that Dyson Daniels agreed to in Atlanta), the Pistons lose flexibility to add another shot creator and/or more shooting the team needs.
Can the Pistons get Duren to take the 25% max ($239 million over five years) and not more? If the Pistons try to get him to take less than that, could a team with cap space in need of a center — Chicago and the Los Angeles Lakers both check those boxes — swoop in and try to poach him (Detroit has the right to match any offer).
As the executive quoted by Windhorst suggests, one of the consequences of the tax aprons in the CBA is that teams CANNOT miss on max contracts, or they quickly become anchors. Duren has earned the right for the Pistons to back the Brinks truck up to his home, he deserves the massive contract coming. How massive, and can he continue to play at this level, are the questions. And there are no easy answers.
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