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This past Saturday was Andrew Painter’s second start of the spring and if you looked at a box score, you’d be rather happy with the results. Three innings pitched in which he gave up no runs, even against a depleted Blue Jays lineup, is cause for optimism that corners are being turned in his development. However, scour the various pitch modeling “experts” that exist and you’d come away with a different point of view of what he pitched like.

Even with the results that showed Painter didn’t excel with under the hood metrics, he still did not allow a run, the ultimate goal of pitching. Yet pair that with his first spring start and you’ll start to see a pattern forming.

Postgame, Painter talked about his outing and noted that his fastball command was not there during his start, nor were many of his pitches.

“I didn’t have my best stuff today,” Painter said. “Four-pitch walk to start, kind of go into a hole, but you’ve got to go out there and compete and get yourself out of it. I thought I made some good pitches. I thought the spin was good. I would love to get the changeup going a little bit, but you’ve got to take what you’re given that day and work with it.”

It’s part of his maturation as a starting pitcher in the major leagues, that he would be able to go through situations like that and be able to come out on the other side with a decent outing. For a spring start, that’s both encouraging and concerning at the same time. Going back to those pitch modeling “experts”, both posts that are given talk about Painter’s lacking good fastball “shape”, something that could be a death knell for some pitchers. This is where, despite his putting up another shortened start of 0’s on the board, there is an underlying concern with his season might unfold. But what exactly are they talking about when it comes to Painter’s “fastball shape”? Let’s explore.

The first thing to understand is that when people are talking about said shape, they’re focusing more on the four seam fastball. Induced vertical break (IVB) is a fastball’s vertical movement, only without gravity, “rising” as it approaches the plate even though we know that the concept of gravity will not allow that. Pitches with good IVB are going to arrive at home plate from the vantage point of looking like it is not moving downwards as it is supposed to and induces more swings either underneath or on the bottom half of the ball, leading to whiffs or easily caught fly balls. Fastballs that have an IVB of 16 inches would be something we would consider average, so anything above is great, anything below is going to be an issue. That may not seem like a lot, but as the old axiom goes, baseball is a game of inches. One of Andrew Painter’s biggest strengths as a prospect was that he was able to combine upper tier fastball velocity with above average IVB to create an elite fastball that he could use in the upper quadrants of the strike zone, meaning he missed barrels and bats.

Post-Tommy John surgery, that pitch and the form that it was in is now missing. Seeing these pitch model experts talk about fastball shape concern with Painter might be startling at first, but it’s nothing new that it’s current shape is something that is now a bug in his pitching profile’s ointment. Matt Winkelman noted this in his write up this offseason:

The problems start with Painter’s four seam fastball. Once an elite pitch before the injury, it was a liability by the end of the season. Predictably for a pitcher ramping back up from not pitching for two years, he gradually lost a little bit of velocity month over month. His arm slot also changed, and it led to less vertical movement. Since Painter’s height is never going to give him good attack angle on the pitch, the loss of movement led to it being very hittable in the strike zone.

It’s also something that Jarrett Seidler noted when doing his writeups on the Phillies’ system for Baseball Prospectus:

His fastball shape is just straight up worse; he’s lost nearly an inch and a half of vert while his release traits have been all over the place, and ultimately got more generic as the season went along. He doesn’t spot the pitch nearly as well as he used to or scrape triple digits as much, and the pre-surgery vs. post-surgery differences in whiff generation are drastic. Based solely on 2025, he looks like a sinker-primary candidate, and the old reports of a guy with a 70 four-seamer don’t match up.

Again, these are reports one does not want to see when discussing the team’s top pitching prospect and likely candidate for a rotation spot in 2026. Both of them talk about Painter’s changes from when he was actually pitching, but without some numbers to look at and compare ourselves, it can be difficult to just accept as gospel. So, it’s best to compare apples to apples and look at Painter pre- and post-surgery.

Using Robert Orr’s amazing work, we can compare Painter’s fastball shape from when he pitched in Clearwater in 2022, when we have available Statcast data for him, and the majority of his season in 2025 in Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

This is what we call confirmation of the scouting reports. While the maintaining of velocity, or at least his getting back to his pre-surgery levels is great, there are two things that jump out. The first is the loss of the ability to induce swinging strikes with the pitch. Even with a fastball that averages in the upper nineties, touching 100+, even Triple-A hitters are going to be able to square it up if it is flat. This leads to the aforementioned concerns both from the scouting reports and the data from which they are partially based: the loss of vertical movement is very real and very much an issue. Without getting that ride on his fastball that he used to such success when he started pitching professionally, he’s going to start seeing major league hitters take that pitch and do more damage with it.

Now, when using that earlier data point of 15 inches of IVB being average, this may not seem like a big deal. After, with that starting point in mind, the IVB on Painter’s fastball seems like something that we would consider to be decent. Yet let’s consider some major league data. Using Baseball Savant, we can do a league-wide search for pitches that have Painter’s current velocity and shape from the spring and see how batters fared against them in 2025. So, let’s set the parameters: fastball velocity between 95 and 97 miles per hour with vertical movement that is between 15 and 17 inches.

The average wOBA against that type of pitch in 2025: .379.

Were Painter to be able to add even a few tenths of an inch of induced vertical break, changing the search to between 17 and 18 inches, maintaining the same velocity, the average wOBA against that type of pitch is much more palatable: .317.

To put it into player terms, that’s the difference between the batter being Juan Soto and Trevor Larnach.

Another thing that was pointed out to me by Matt Winkelman was the loss of cut on his fastball as well. We were discussing this topic and he noted that at it’s best, Painter’s four seam fastball has cutting action to it as well as near elite IVB. Both of those things went backwards, hence the concern for what that fastball shape is looking like these past two starts. He also noted that at times, Statcast is thrown for a loop by classifying his sinker as a four-seam as well, causing some of the data to be a bit wonky, but I wonder if that happened enough to influence the numbers that much.

The lack of induced vertical break on his four-seam fastball, or at least the drop in Painter’s data, and loss of the natural cut he was leaning towards having is going to be an issue for him once he finally does ascend to the major leagues. A fastball with these characteristics is akin to the one that needs above average to elite secondaries to let him get away with it and Painter simply is not there yet. We can douse some of this panic by understanding that we basing all of this concern on two spring starts, lest people get too overly worried. The team was focusing a lot this offseason on making sure that Painter’s arm slot was getting back to where it was, which may have led to some of the issues he had with his fastball in 2025. If that gets “fixed”, and by the sounds of it, it has, the team can then move on to the next part of concern that surrounds his fastball and see if they can get that pitch to jump a little bit more. Because as the numbers show, if his fastball continues on with its current shape and form, he’s going to have to rely either more on his sinker (which isn’t really that much better) or his secondaries to consistently get major league hitters out.

Not exactly the news one wants to hear about their top pitching prospect.

Ryan Perry Rolison was born in Jackson, TN 28 years ago. The 6’2” left-hander toiled for Colorado for four years before joining the Cubs, making little impact in the Major Leagues prior to coming to Chicago.

The data from three innings of Spring Training ball don’t point to his continuing any further north than Des Moines in the near future — he’s given up a home run and six earned runs so far. He’ll likely get more mound time but the signs are not auspicious at present.

This is in line with his career so far. He was a first-round pick (#22), too, by the Rockies in 2018. The Cubs are the third team to acquire Rolison over the winter, as he was previously acquired from Atlanta by the White Sox.

Rolison pitched 42.1 innings for the Rockies in 2025. His 7.02 ERA attests to his habit of throwing the gopher ball. He allowed 11 long flies in those 42.1 innings.

He has a good arm but I’m not sure what the Cubs expect from him. His numbers are alarmingly bad. He gives up a ton of hits, walks more men than most pitchers.

It wouldn’t be a complete surprise if he was DFA’d. But Iowa needs pitching, too. He has the four pitches — fastball, slider, curve, change, and his mid-90s FB velocity is not so bad. But something clearly is ‘off’.

If you’re a hardcore baseball fan in the 21st century, then you probably frequently find yourself in the position of being a baseball defender.

Baseball doesn’t actually need defending. It’s one of the world’s great global games and is enjoyed in various forms by hundreds of millions of people every year. It’s going to outlive all of us, I promise. But because of baseball’s historical and cultural position in America, it is constantly subjected to a weird kind of forensic analysis that isn’t usually applied to other sports: is it dying?¹ Is it too slow?² Do the zoomers watch it?³ Are baseball players even athletes?⁴ Is it somehow a bad thing that one of its teams is good and rich and popular?⁵ The questions get asked and the baseball defenders are forced to answer them.

I have played the role of baseball defender for most of my life. And I probably will continue to do so. I love baseball and I have a penchant for arguing; it’s only natural that these two things are going to collide like a third baseman and left fielder under a pop-up. But, after watching the taut Cuba-Puerto Rico game last night and physically feeling the joy coursing through my veins while watching Alfredo Despaigne chug his way into second base with a double, I’ve decided there’s one baseball fight I’m going to drop: I’m going to stop arguing with people who tell me that baseball players are fat.

As a fan of David Ortiz, I’ve found myself in this argument a lot. And, to be clear, I still maintain what I’ve always maintained: that the vast majority of baseball players (non-Pablo Sandoval division) commonly thought of as “fat” do not actually fit that word as it is typically used. I have spent years explaining to people that the baseball uniform itself makes the players look far more rotund than they actually are. If you saw David Ortiz walk by you in street clothes, you wouldn’t say “Hey, look at that fat guy.” You would say “Holy shit, the bull from Ferdinand learned how to walk upright. And also spends a lot of money on sunglasses.“

But I’m done with that now. Because what I accepted last night is that, even if they may not actually be fat compared to the rest of us, there are, of course, many baseball players who are fatter than literally any player in the NBA or Premier League. And not only is that perfectly fine, it’s actually a great thing.

Sports reflect society. And we are one fat ass society, folks. Our food is garbage, we automate every kind of physical labor we can, and we’ve physically built most of the American landscape in way that not only discourages walking, but makes it actively dangerous to do so. Who needs a nice, pleasant twenty-five minute commute on the sidewalk when we can instead move from our house stuck in some hellscape of suburban sprawl to our jobs in some hellscape of an office park without taking more than a hundred steps in a row at any given time?

We are fat and we’re getting fatter. Pixar’s Wall-E no longer looks like satire. But we’re still capable of doing some amazing things. And it is cool as hell that Alfredo Despaigne, despite being 39-years-old and possessing the body of a suburban dad who wears a shirt at the beach, is still capable of doing this to 98 MPH heat at the top of the zone:

Sports, at their best, are celebrations of what it means to be human. And it is a wonderful thing that baseball has room for a wider variety of humans (literally) than any other sport. Alfredo Despaigne isn’t a great athlete despite his body. He’s a great athlete with his body. And baseball is better for it.

Keep on chugging, Alfredo — all the way around the bases.

The answers to the questions posed above: (1) No. (2) It is slow, but we need more slow things in our lives right now. (3) I have no idea. They never leave their apartments so I can’t ask them. (4) If this is what people actually cared about, then track and field would be a lot more popular than it is. (5) Obviously not for anyone who thinks about the salary cap debate for more than five seconds.

The United States won a showdown with Mexico on Monday night, and Puerto Rico clinched a berth in the quarterfinals, highlighting Dodgers-related action at the World Baseball Classic.

Neither Will Smith nor Clayton Kershaw played on Monday, but Team USA beat Mexico 5-3 to improve to 3-0 in Pool B in Houston. The U.S. hasn’t yet clinched a quarterfinal spot just yet, but can win the pool on Tuesday against Italy, which is 2-0 thus far.

There still exists a possibility for a three-way tie at 3-1 between Team USA, Italy, and Mexico. In that scenario (Italy beats USA Tuesday, Mexico beats Italy on Wednesday), the next tiebreaker is based on defensive runs allowed, and how Korea advanced in a three-way tie at 2-2 in Pool C in Tokyo:

The tied teams shall be ranked in the standings according to the lowest quotient of fewest runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in the games in that round between the teams tied.

We’ll delve into the tiebreaker scenarios later, if Team USA loses Tuesday to Italy. But for now they are 3-0.

Puerto Rico clinched a spot in the quarterfinals on Monday with a .. win over Cuba, and is now 3-0 in Pool A in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Edwin Díaz pitched a perfect ninth inning with two strikeouts to earn the save.

In two games thus far in the WBC, Díaz has pitched two scoreless innings with one hit allowed, and five strikeouts in his seven batters faced.

Puerto Rico plays Canada on Tuesday and can clinch Pool A with a win. If Puerto Rico wins Pool A, they will play the Pool B runner-up on Friday in Houston. If Puerto Rico finishes second in Pool A, they play the Pool B winner on Saturday.

Japan finished off Pool C at 4-0 with a 9-0 win over Czechia on Tuesday morning. Because Japan already clinched the pool in three games, Shohei Ohtani did not play in this game, though he did warm up the right fielder during the game, and gave a baseball to a fan.

Ohtani in his three WBC games so far had five hits, including two home runs and a double, in nine at-bats, plus four strikeouts, hitting .556/.692/1.333.

Thus far, five of the eight quarterfinal teams are known. Japan won Pool C, and Korea was the Pool C runner-up, and Puerto Rico is in. Pool D will be decided on Wednesday, with 3-0 Dominican Republic facing 3-0 Venezuela. Both teams have already clinched a spot in the quarterfinals.

Tuesday schedule

• 4 p.m. PT: Puerto Rico vs. Canada (Tubi)
• 4 p.m.: Netherlands vs. Israel (Fox Sports app)
• 6 p.m.: United States vs. Italy (FS1)

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Orioles fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

If nothing else changes with the health of their starting pitchers between now and the start of the regular season, the Orioles have six experienced major league starters ready to go: Chris Bassitt, Shane Baz, Kyle Bradish, Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer, and Trevor Rogers. Basic math tells us that’s one more starter than the five-man rotation that’s been standard in baseball for decades now.

Every one of those six guys has enough of a major league track record that it would be a surprise to see them shunted into the bullpen, or even the minors for those who can still be sent there. Bradish and Rogers certainly aren’t going anywhere based on recent performance. Bassitt and Eflin are on $10+ million contracts. The Orioles traded four prospects for Baz. Then there’s Kremer, who isn’t the most high-ceiling of this bunch but has a perfectly fine set of career numbers.

This week’s survey is a simple question: Do you think the Orioles should go for a six-man rotation with this group?

Over a full season, a six-man rotation means every starting pitcher would end up with 27 starts rather than the 32-33 starts that pitchers in a five-man rotation typically get. On one hand, it’s not good for the Orioles if they’re diluting the number of games for Bradish and Rogers to potentially dominate. On the other hand, given that those guys aren’t guaranteed good health, it’s not a bad way to limit their innings and give a little extra rest.

The only price paid by a six-man rotation is there’s one fewer pitcher in the bullpen, and it’s not like the Orioles have so many great relief options that the idea of trimming one of them is unappealing.

Results will be posted later in the week.

On March 9, 2025, long-time Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Julio Teheran announced his retirement. In the midst of the World Baseball Classic, Spring Training and the seemingly never-ending stream of injuries to Atlanta Braves starting pitchers, it is unfortunate that it was a shoulder issue that caused Teheran to miss his scheduled start for Columbia against Canada two days prior to his announcement.

The right-handed Teheran, who just turned 35 six weeks ago, made only 22 starts after departing Atlanta following the 2019 season. He last pitched in the big leagues in 2024 – ironically enough, making a start against the Braves on April 8 of that season – but injuries and ineffectiveness stymied any additional big league appearances.

The last five years were in stark contrast to his time as a starting pitcher in Atlanta. Teheran was a two-time All-Star with the Braves in 2014 and 2016 and made six-consecutive Opening Day starts for the Braves from 2014 through 2019. He made his big league debut in 2011 at age 20 but didn’t stick in the rotation until 2013.

Teheran made 30 starts in ‘13, the first of seven-straight years he made 30-or-more starts in the Atlanta rotation. He was the team’s top starter during what were some lean seasons in Atlanta from 2014 through 2017, when the Braves never won more than 80 games in a season and failed to win 70 games twice.

During his nine seasons with Atlanta, he pitched in 229 games – starting 226 times – tossing 1,360 innings for the Braves and leading the National League in starts in 2015. He was never dominant – he struck out just north of 20-percent of the batters he faced for most of his Atlanta run, with three years of a great walk-rate – but he was always solid. He did struggle a bit more during his final seasons with the Braves, when his average innings per start also dipped.

Teheran had the productivity of a productive third or fourth starter during his Atlanta tenure, but spent time at the top of the Braves’ rotation for most of his career. While that may have seemed frustrating at the time, a decade later, it is easy to have a greater appreciate of the workman-like way at which Teheren made his starts and “gave the Braves a chance to win every time out”.

Three seasons of Teheran’s career stand out above the rest. In 2013, 2014, and 2016, Teheran had an ERA of 3.21 or better and gave the Braves between 185.2 and 221 innings. His fWAR numbers come in lower than his bWAR ones, but those two services see those three seasons as three of his four best – with bWAR liking his 2019 better than 2013, although fWAR does not. FanGraphs never gave a single season of his better than 3.4 fWAR (Baseball Reference topped him out a 4.7 bWAR).

If Freddie Freeman was the bridge between two different Braves eras as a position player, Teheran was the same for the pitching staff. When Teheran made his big league debut in Philadelphia against the Phillies on May 7, 2011, the position players in the line-up included Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Martin Prado, Jason Heyward, Dan Uggla and Freeman. The Braves won 89 games that season and followed it up with 94 and 96 wins.

When Teheran made his final regular season start with Atlanta on September 24, 2019 against the Royals in Kansas City, Ronald Acuńa, Jr., Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley and Dansby Swanson were all in the line-up, as was McCann, during his return engagement with Atlanta. The Braves won 90 games in 2018 and 97 in 2019.

Teheran’s six consecutive Opening Day starts tie him with inner-circle Hall of Famer pitcher Warren Spahn. But as his career comes to a close, the Braves pitcher with whom he most closely relates is Rick Mahler, the Atlanta starter for most of the 1980’s who made five starts on Opening Day and whose career numbers are quite similar when adjusted for era to Teheran.

The Braves signed Teheran as an international free agent out of Columbia in 2007, and his 13-year MLB career was that of a solid starter whose heavy usage in his 20’s see his career detail at age 29.

For his career, he made 248 starts in 255 career games pitched with five complete games and had three shut-outs. He ended his career with an 81-82 record and 3.85 ERA. With Atlanta, his career record was 77-73 with a 3.67 ERA.

Here’s hoping he makes his way back to Atlanta this season for a warm welcome and a return to the organization where he spent the majority of his professional career.

His retirement announcement can be seen in the video embedded below (except for Apple News).

Happy trails.

Diamondbacks News

Diamondbacks honored by state of Arizona for charitable giving milestone by Alex Weiner [Arizona Sports]

March 9 is a foundational day on the calendar for the Arizona Diamondbacks, as on this day in 1995, Major League Baseball awarded an expansion franchise to Phoenix.

Thirty-one years later, Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs proclaimed March 9 will be “D-backs Give Back Day” annually to honor the baseball franchise for hitting $100 million in charitable giving.

Diamondbacks’ 2026 Closer Plan is Painfully Obvious by Alex D’Agostino [SI]

The Arizona Diamondbacks have yet to name their closer, and it’s beginning to look more and more likely that it will be a closer-by-committee approach this season, with a combination of veterans like Paul Sewald, Ryan Thompson or Kevin Ginkel taking turns in the ninth inning.

And with Sewald’s track record of closing games, it feels most likely that he will be the one presented with the majority of the save opportunities, though the D-backs have been known to choose their closer based on specific-game matchups in recent seasons.

Diamondbacks’ ‘amazing young man’ Carroll continues to clear hurdles by José M. Romero [AZ Central]

Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll could start playing in major league spring training games as soon as this week, manager Torey Lovullo said before the team played the Seattle Mariners on Monday, March 9, at Salt River Fields.

Carroll, rapidly recovering from a fractured hamate suffered almost a month ago, is getting live at-bats on back fields at the Diamondbacks’ spring training facility.

Around the League

Superstars shine as USA holds off Mexico in thriller by David Adler [MLB]

In an electric atmosphere at Daikin Park on Monday night, the United States defeated Mexico, 5-3, in a thrilling showdown of undefeated World Baseball Classic rivals.

The superstars came through for the U.S., which got a dominating start from Paul Skenes and a big game by captain Aaron Judge. Skenes pitched four shutout innings with seven strikeouts in his WBC debut. Judge hit his second home run of the Classic and had a clutch outfield assist. Roman Anthony also crushed a huge three-run homer that proved to be the difference-maker.

With the win, Team USA seized control of Pool B of the 2026 Classic and exorcised some demons against a Mexican team that’s had its number in the WBC.

Dominican Republic, Venezuela, S. Korea into WBC quarters [ESPN]

Fernando Tatis Jr. hit a grand slam and drove in six runs, and the Dominican Republic clinched a spot in the World Baseball Classic quarterfinals with a 10-1 win over Israel on Monday in Miami.

Tatis homered in the second inning on a 78.5 mph changeup off Ryan Prager, standing at home plate and admiring his no-doubt drive over the left-field wall, then added a two-run single in the seventh. Geraldo Perdomo had put the Dominicans ahead with a bases-loaded walk.

Tatis’ six RBIs tied Adrian González in 2009 for second most in a WBC game, one behind Ken Griffey Jr.’s record in 2006.

The Dominican Republic’s Hitters Are Dangerous, But They Haven’t Really Been Tested Yet by Matt Martell [FanGraphs]

Through the first two games of the World Baseball Classic, the Dominican Republic had scored 24 runs, recorded 22 hits, and drawn 18 walks. Fifteen of those 24 runs had come on the team’s seven home runs. Collectively, the Dominican hitters were slashing .361/.506/.754; their 1.260 OPS was two points better than Babe Ruth’s was in 1927. They couldn’t possibly keep this up.

They cooled off some in Monday afternoon’s 10-1 win over Israel, lowering that slash line to a pedestrian .319/.488/.692. Those slackers.

Phillies, Jesús Luzardo Agree To Extension by Darragh McDonald [MLB Trade Rumors]

The Phillies and left-hander Jesús Luzardo have agreed to an extension, according to various reports. He was previously slated for free agency after 2026. It’s reportedly a five-year pact starting in 2027, which guarantees the Roc Nation Sports client $135MM. There is also a $32.5MM club option, though Luzardo can boost that by $2MM with each top five Cy Young finish, giving him a chance to potentially raise it as high as $42.5MM. He will receive a $1MM assignment bonus each time he is traded until he reaches 10-and-5 rights.

Something that Colorado Rockies president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta said at Rockies Fest has stayed with me. I’m paraphrasing, but he told fans to expect to see players in spring training games playing positions they have not generally been associated with.

We’ve discussed this notion of “optionality” quite a bit. (See here and here.) And we’ve seen it in action this year as Ryan Ritter leaves the dirt for the grassy plain of left field.

As a fan, I’m all for it.

One needn’t watch many Dodger games to understand the value of players like Mookie Betts and Max Muncy who comfortably move to whatever hole needs plugging in any given game.

As a writer at Purple Row, however, it creates a quandary.

You see, “The State of the Position” is a series that evaluates positional preparedness and depth based on the players in those positions. After all, the Rockies have traditionally been a fairly “position-locked” organization. A player became a positional specialist and spent their career at that spot.

But the DePodesta/Byrnes Rockies are becoming a considerably more fluid bunch, which means I’m put in the position of speculating where I think a player will play and how good I think he’ll be there.

I’m happy to give it give it the old college try, but bear in mind that just as the Rockies are rebuilding, some of the pieces we write at Purple Row will require some rethinking until the plan becomes clearer.

The locks

Despite all my meandering in the previous section, the four primary outfielders seem clear:

• Jake McCarthy (LF)
• Brenton Doyle (CF)
• Jordan Beck (RF)
• Mickey Moniak (CF & RF)

Doyle’s elite defense is unquestioned. Look, Rawlings doesn’t give Gold Gloves out to just anyone, and Doyle has two of them on his mantle at home. It’s clear that 2025 was not the year he wanted, due both to injuries and personal matters. But those breath-taking Doyle robberies never get old.

McCarthy, then, will assume Beck’s spot in left — manager Warren Schaeffer has been clear about this. Due to his speed and athleticism, McCarthy is suited to covering the ground out there, and in every interview, he’s made clear that he’s confident of his ability to be effective at Coors.

That said, Beck’s defense remains a work in progress. The athleticism is unquestioned, but he’s still learning the job. He told me late last season that he worked with the Rockies body mechanics person on his defense, and it was helpful. How it plays in 2026 remains to be seen, but he’s probably got the starting job in left.

That leaves Mickey Moniak as the fourth outfielder. Moniak’s miserable defense received attention last season, and he will probably see fewer defensive innings than he did last year. But he should be viewed as the fourth outfielder.

Or should he?

Utility outfielders

Here’s where things get complicated.

The Rockies have a number of players who could easily spend significant time in the outfield:

• Tyler Freeman
• Willi Castro
• Ryan Ritter
• Troy Johnston

How much time will they spend in the outfield? We have no idea. Frankly, Schaeffer probably has no idea. Rather, these players should be seen as outfield options who can fit in — think of it as Garanimals roster construction — should the need arrive.

We know that Freeman has struggled in the outfield. Actually, he’s struggled in RF. He said last season that playing center is much easier because of the angles. Willi Castro is a very capable outfielder, though he’s never done that at Coors Field. And Ryan Ritter’s outfield skill remains to be seen, as does whether Johnston breaks camp with the Rockies.

But it’s easy to see — already — how much more versatile these outfield options are.

Remember back on August 25, 2021, when the Rockies ran out of outfielders and played Kyle Freeland in the outfield in the 10th inning of a game against the Chicago Cubs?

Yeah, that’s not happening again.

The farm

The Rockies outfield smorgasbord has been a topic of conversation for a while. This year should see some of those questions answered. For example, Yanquiel Fernández is no longer with the Rockies.

Now to the players who appear to be on the cusp:

• Zac Veen (No. 9 PuRP)
• Cole Carrigg (No. 4 PuRP)
• Charlie Condon (No. 1 PuRP)
• Sterlin Thompson (No. 13 PuRP)
• Jared Thomas (No. 5 PuRP)
• Robert Calaz (No. 6 PuRP)
• Roldy Brito (No. 11 PuRP)

Veen, Condon, Carrigg, and Thomas appear closest to MLB ready.

But even then, Condon and Carrigg come as versatile players with positional optionality. Is Condon in the outfield or at first? Is Carrigg the Rockies version of Mookie Betts? There’s too much we don’t know — in a good way.

One thing worth noting, however, is that this year is probably it for former first-round draft pick Benny Montgomery, who has yet to get to Triple-A Albuquerque and has struggled to stay healthy. If he’s not on the field and making progress, he may be seeing his last days with the Rockies.

Closing thoughts

This year’s outfield promises to be especially interesting as fans search for the answers to a number of questions: Which players will move between the infield and the outfield? Will Schaeffer’s emphasis on using data and body mechanics translate to improved defense? Will Brenton Doyle be back in his 2024 form — and will he finish the season with the Rockies given all the rumors about other teams being interesting in him.

(Early prediction: I do not think we will see him in purple come August.)

But the exciting thing is that if Doyle is, in fact, traded, there are other players prepared to slide into center — or any number of positions.

The outfield is a position of depth for the Rockies. Now we wait to see how the new configurations work.

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

Last weekend, my youngest son did something that amazed me so much that I decided to write this column.

In our kitchen, we have this block calendar—it has two numbered block that you can use to count down to some event. It has options for months, weeks, and days, too. We don’t always use it, but we will when it’s getting close to summer vacation, Christmas, or a vacation.

While I’m working on dinner, the youngest—he’s six—comes in and starts messing with it. “Hey, Dad.”

“Hmmm?”

“Hey, Dad, look.”

I look. He has the calendar to 95 weeks until break.

“Oh, cool,” I said, shifting back to cooking.

“Did you see?”

“Yep. What’s in 95 weeks?”

“Christmas.”

“Ha. Okay, buddy.”

We have an Amazon Echo in our kitchen, so I asked Alexa, “What’s the date 95 weeks from today?”

Wouldn’t you know it—December 25, 2027.

I said, “You’ve gotta be kidding me,” while my son gloated and laughed. Deservedly so, albeit maniacal.

In that spirit, I’ve decided to take my shot at some oddly specific predictions, but of course, this is a Kansas City Royals blog, sir and madam, so I’m incorporating them.

Now, unlike Child #2, I put some thought into my predictions. This little project took much longer than anticipated. I looked at stats, projections, the schedule, etc., and not just for the Royals. I created my own little world of which I will only provide a snippet. Trust me: consuming the whole thing wouldn’t be healthy. There’s a point to that story about Pandora.

But these predictions are safe to share. These are my 26 oddly specific predictions for the 2026 Kansas City Royals.

1. The Royals will win their first game of the season in their second game before taking the series from Atlanta that Sunday.
2. Maikel Garcia will hit the first home run of the year for the Royals in his first at-bat of the second game of the season.
3. The Royals will finish the regular season 2-4 against the Yankees, with one victory coming on April 18 in New York and the other occurring on May 26 in Kansas City.
4. On June 17, Lucas Erceg will officially supplant Carlos Estévezas the team’s closer.
5. On July 2, during a home game against the Tampa Rays, Salvador Perez will hit career home run #318, surpassing George Brett as the Royals’ all-time home run leader. The home run will come against pitcher Garrett Cleavinger.

6. With the No. 6 pick in the draft, the Royals will select Tyler Spangler, SS, De La Salle (Concord, California).
7. These five Royals will make the All-Star game: Bobby Witt Jr., Cole Ragans, Maikel Garcia, Lucas Erceg, and Vinnie Pasquantino.
8. Before the trade deadline, the Royals will trade two pitchers who have started at least one game for them between 2025 and 2026, and neither of those pitchers will be Kris Bubic.
9. On August 1, the Royals will lose to the Colorado Rockies.
10. Cole Ragans will throw his second career complete game on August 4 against the Minnesota Twins.
11. In 2025, the Royals were shut out 15 times while shutting out their opponent 10 times. In 2026, the Royals will be shut out 10 times while shutting out their opponent 15 times.
12. Starling Marte will appear in exactly 100 games.
13. Eight Royals will finish the season with at least 10 home runs.
14. Seth Lugo will lead the team in innings pitched with 193-and-1/3.
15. In 2025, the Royals bizarrely managed to finish 26-26 against fellow American League Central teams. In 2026, against those same opponents, the Royals will finish 33-19 (11-2 against Chicago, 7-6 against Cleveland, 6-7 against Detroit, and 9-4 against Minnesota).
16. The Royals will win the American League Central by one game.
17. The Royals hit 159 home runs in 2025, ahead of only four other teams. The Royals will increase that total to 183 home runs in 2026, led by…
18. Jac Caglianone, who will knock 35 homers.
19. Matt Quatraro will be named a finalist for American League Manager of the Year, but will not win.
20. Carter Jensen will finish second in voting for American League Rookie of the Year.
21. Cole Ragans will finish second in the American League in strikeouts with 216.
22. He will also finish second in the American League Cy Young voting.
23. Vinnie Pasquantino will capture his first Silver Slugger.
24. Bobby Witt Jr. will record his third career 30-30 season with 33 home runs and 31 stolen bases.

25. He will also finally win his first American League MVP award.
26. The Royals will end on their 2026 season on the road with a two-run loss.

Happy Tuesday! The Mariners fell just short in a 1-2 walkoff loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks yesterday, but starter Bryan Woo impressed through four innings with three hits, no walks, and four strikeouts. The Mariners will face the Kansas City Royals at 1:10 PM this afternoon as RHP Cooper Criswell takes the mound.

With another exciting day of World Baseball Classic play, commenter Sam206 posted a great question in yesterday’s Moose Tracks comments that deserves a larger discussion: “How do you guys feel about Julio’s performance in the WBC so far? Optimistic for him to have a faster start this season? Or is it just a good WBC performance against inconsistent national team pitching?”

In Mariners news…

• With George Kirby now calling some of his own pitches, Ryan Divish at The Seattle Times wrote that Logan Gilbert has followed suit. Could it be a new trend for the starting rotation, or just some fun while Cal is away?
• Our own Ryan Blake took a fascinating deep dive into RHP Kade Anderson’s fastball movement.
• Mariners top infield prospect Michael Arroyo was highlighted as one of the WBC’s top performers so far as he leads Colombia in runs and steals.

In the World Baseball Classic…

• Korea’s emphatic 7-2 win over Australia has advanced them to the second round of the WBC for the first time in 17 years. The win created a three-way tie in Pool C for second place that was decided by the number of runs each team scored in pool play, and Australia was eliminated after falling just one run short.
• Colombia defeated Panama 4-3 to both get their first win of the tournament and eliminate Panama from contention.
• Another dominant Dominican Republic game featured a 10-1 win over Israel. The scoring was started by a monster Fernando Tatis Jr. grand slam, and Israel was eliminated from contention in the process.
• In a battle of two eliminated teams, Great Britain finished strong with an 8-1 win over Brazil.
• Venezuela has already clinched a spot in the WBC quarterfinals but remains undefeated after a 4-0 win over Nicaragua.
• Puerto Rico won the battle of unbeaten teams against Cuba 4-1 and clinched a quarterfinal spot in front of their home crowd.
• In perhaps the most anticipated game of the night, Team USA defeated Mexico 5-3 in an electric showcase of some of the leagues biggest stars.

Around the league…

• RHP Jesus Luzardo has agreed to a five-year/$135 million extension with the Philadelphia Phillies.
• Atlanta Braves LHP Joey Wentz has torn his ACL in his right knee and will miss the entire 2026 season.
• Colorado Rockies RHP RJ Petit has been diagnosed with a UCL sprain and will undergo further evaluation.
• The San Francisco Giants have re-signed LHP Joey Lucchesi to a minor league deal that will earn him $1.15 million if he makes the big league roster.

As has been the case with all of our coverage surrounding young starting pitchers for the Yankees, their importance to the club early in the year would be hard to overstate. With each of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, and Clarke Schmidt on the shelf to begin the season, depth in the rotation will be vital, with several young arms being asked to step up in their absence and perhaps beyond.

Ryan Weathers, a 26-year-old lefty who was acquired in a deal this offseason, will almost certainly be one of them. He has yet to post a full season as a starter in the majors, but as Peter outlined shortly after the trade, he has impressive raw tools, which have drawn plenty of eyes this spring. What his role will be come September or October could be anyone’s guess, but for now, he will likely be leaned on for some legitimate work to begin the year.

2025 Stats (with Marlins): 8 starts, 38.1 IP, 2-2, 3.99 ERA (111 ERA+), 4.60 FIP, 4.03 xFIP, 22.3% K%, 7.2% BB%, 1.64 HR/9, 1.28 WHIP, 0.2 fWAR

2026 FanGraphs Depth Charts projections: 37 appearances (19 starts), 118 IP, 7-7, 4.14 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 22.0% K%, 8.5% BB%, 1.18 HR/9, 1.29 WHIP, 1.2 fWAR

The much-celebrated son of 1996 Yankees World Series champion reliever David Weathers, Ryan was originally drafted with the seventh overall pick by the Padres back in 2018 out of a Tennessee high school, and quickly ascended through the minor leagues. So quickly, in fact, that he achieved the rare feat of making his MLB debut during the postseason, in the 2020 NLDS.

Weathers made 30 appearances in his first regular season stint in ‘21, in what we’ll call an unimpressive run. Eighteen of those games were starts, and his 94.2 innings of work are still the most he’s seen in any season in the big leagues, despite his troubling ERA and FIP marks well above five.

Weathers only pitched once during the 2022 season, and when given a bigger opportunity a year later (15 games, 12 starts), the lefty was even worse, posting an ERA approaching seven and walking more than 10 percent of opposing batters. He was traded mid-year to the Marlins during that season, and although it wasn’t immediate, his time in Miami would be much more fruitful.

After arriving in South Florida, Weathers did all the right things: he walked far fewer guys, and struck out more. The impacts to his surface-level production were obvious. Over the last two combined seasons, 24 starts for Weathers, he has maintained a much more manageable 3.74 ERA while striking out 22 percent of batters with walk rates well below what he was putting up in San Diego. All things considered, the Yankees acquired the lefty in an upswing, and hope to cash in on the skills that helped him be drafted early in the first round.

In just his two outings to this point in the spring, we have seen the two sides that Weathers has to offer. In his first, the 26-year-old was terrific in 3.2 scoreless innings against the Nationals, when he allowed just one hit, avoided any walks, and struck out five.

In his second, against the Mets, he allowed five earned runs on seven hits over the course of just two innings. There were good moments, but his simply gave up too much hard contact in his brief outing. Spring is obviously for tune-ups, primarily, but the less of that Weathers that the Yankees see, the better.

The talent is fairly clear, as his plus-velocity fastball can get him places, as long as the control stays in check. Although Weathers’ time in The Show has been mostly troublesome, he has been better of late, and if the Yankees are able to unlock something in his 4-5 pitch mix, it would not be surprising to see him making starts for much of the season. Until he’s able to prove that, and that he can handle a starter’s workload, he remains one of the most glaring question marks in the Yankees projected rotation, and on their roster as a whole.

See more of the Yankees Previews series here.