For about three weeks this spring, Jeremiah Jackson was the best story on the Orioles. Through 18 games he was hitting .317 with five home runs, a team-leading 17 RBI, and a .923 OPS. On April 13 against Arizona he hit two homers, one of them the first grand slam of his career. A few days later his three-run homer in the eighth gave the O’s a 6-4 comeback win over Cleveland. “Right now, I don’t think there”s anyone in baseball feeling better than him,” Coby Mayo said. Craig Albernaz called him “a great example of a player putting in the work.”
Alas, I guess working hard is no guarantee of success in the Big Leagues. Jackson’s final line this season looked nothing like April. In 102 games and 293 plate appearances he hit .217/.247/.365, with 10 homers and 45 RBI. Baseball-Reference puts his OPS+ at 72 and his WAR at 0.1. FanGraphs is harsher: a 67 wRC+ and -0.3 WAR. With Jackson still in pre-arbitration, he wouldn’t be a costly retention on next year’s roster, but with lots of promising infielders around yet, it’s not clear the value is still there.
Jackson came to the Orioles in the way many players (too many?) come to the Orioles: as another team’s castoff. In 2018, the Angels took the infielder in the second round out of Mobile, Alabama. The next season, he tied the Pioneer League record with 23 home runs, but then he stalled. Injuries cost him time, and after languishing several season in the Angels organization, he was traded to the Mets in 2023. He’d hit a paltry .205 at Double-A Binghamton in 2024 before reaching free agency, where the Orioles signed him to a minor-league deal that November.
Last season, hopefully you’ll recall, Jeremiah Jackson exploded as a hitter, posting numbers in Triple-A Norfolk that forced the big-league front office to take notice—a .377 average with 11 homers in 40 games—and a successful stint in the big leagues after his debut at Chicago’s Wrigley Field on August 1, hitting .276/.328/.447 over 48 games.
None of this meant Jackson was guaranteed a roster spot again this spring. But he earned it once more, hitting .314 in Grapefruit League play to beat out a crowded field—Luis Vázquez, Bryan Ramos, Weston Wilson, and Thairo Estrada—for the last bench spot. Soon after that, Jackson Holliday’s hamate fracture and Jordan Westburg’s multiple injuries made Jeremiah Jackson the O’s everyday second baseman.
Alas, the experiment didn’t work. After April, Jackson’s offensive numbers cratered. He’d hit .209 in 17 games in May, then see his playing time dry up by early June. Jackson was optioned to Norfolk on June 28 and called back up five days later. He went 1-for-29 after the All-Star break, and on August 19 he went back down to make room for Samuel Basallo. He returned when rosters expanded on September 9, but he hit just .163 in 10 games.
What went wrong? Well, being a free swinger was one issue. Jackson’s season-long walk rate of 3.4%, down from 6% last season, proved a real liability, as pitchers stopped giving him hittable pitches early in counts.
To be fair, he had some bad luck. As of late in the season, Statcast had his expected wOBA (.284) a good deal above his actual wOBA (.265), and his 38 percent hard-hit rate is respectable. Plus his expected average (.236) was actually higher than last season’s (.222). And his strikeout rates didn’t skyrocket, either (in fact, his K% dropped a couple points from last season).
But this is still average to below-average output from even a bench bat, and Jeremiah Jackson was supposed to have the thump to do a lot more. Not to mention that the glove was just average. Most of his time came at second base (80 games), with a handful in left field and single games at third and right. He looked good there early, with some diving plays and a +2 DRS in April. Over the full season, though, the defensive numbers settled at around average. That’d be fine but for the .611 OPS. A utility man should either hit or be a defensive plus, and in 2026 Jackson wasn’t consistently either.
In sharp contrast, Blaze Alexander, another typical Orioles diamond in the rough, added obvious value in his 93 games, hitting .303/.358/.414 while flashing the wheels and plugging in all over the field. I mention this because if the Orioles are looking for “bench bat who can play all over,” it’s not clear there will be room for Jeremiah Jackson on the roster come next season, especially not with hitters like Alexander, or even the slugging Christian Encarnacion-Strand, both of whom did it far better in 2026.
Because Jackson is pre-arbitration, the Orioles don’t face a big salary decision with him. If he stays on the 40-man roster, he’ll make close to the league minimum. But the question still remains: amidst a crowded infield that includes a returning Jordan Westburg, a slugging Coby Mayo, a surprising Encarnacion-Strand, a versatile Blaze Alexander, Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holiday, is there still a spot on the roster for Jeremiah Jackson?
TORONTO, CANADA - OCTOBER 13: A logo is seen on the net as players take part in warm ups ahead of their preseason game between the Toronto Raptors and the New York Knicks at Scotiabank Arena on October 13, 2026 in Toronto, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Cole Burston/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Greetings, Knickerbocker fans. As the 81st NBA season draws near, the Posting and Toasting crew has assembled to answer questions and offer predictions as the defending champions pursue a repeat under sophomore skipper Mike Brown.
Commence the speculation!
1) Where will the Knicks finish in offensive and defensive rating, and what will drive the biggest change?
Antonio Losada: Let’s do something not-so-fun and revisit last year’s takes, carrying 53 years (well, not so many in my personal case) of suffering with them. I had the Knicks finishing with both a top-six offense and defense last season, and I nearly got it right, as they posted the third-best ORtg and seventh-best DRtg. Nothing other than losing Mitchell Robinson has changed, I don’t expect anything to deviate a lot from what we saw last postseason, and everybody — including Mike Brown — has been together for a full season, so I’ll ramp up my prediction for a top-three finish in both cats this campaign.
Michael Zeno: As Antonio said, the Knicks gave us a good baseline with third and seventh in offensive and defensive rating, respectively, so my answers will be pretty similar. I’m not sure if they can achieve Celtics-esque offensive harmony from behind the arc, but this offense will reach a new level with their new playmaking hub in the middle. On defense, I wonder if Andre Drummond will be a steep drop-off from Mitchell Robinson, but also if the strides Karl-Anthony Towns made in the postseason will carry over. Whaddya know, the man angling for a max extension is the X-factor for both. I’ll say third and ninth.
Moritz Wollert: If they really wanted to I could see them finishing top three in both categories. The people in Atlanta, Philly, Cleveland and down there in Texas surely remember how dominant this Knicks group can be, even if they lost Mitchell Robinson over the summer. For a veteran championship team like our Bockers (damn, it feels good to type that) though of course there are many things a lot more important than statistical milestones. So I could see them pacing themselves, trying out some things over the course of the year and finish comfortably 5th on O and 8th on the defensive end.
Kento Kato: The Knicks have the roster and ability to be a top three team on both ends of the floor, especially if they play the way they did in the postseason. While they did lose Mitchell Robinson, a full regular season of Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, and Mikal Bridges playing they way did en route to a championship could see them absolutely dominate the regular season. That being said, I do think some early season regression and complacency is natural, even with this group of motivated and focused core. That, along with an improved conference and the fact that teams can’t possible continue putting their centers on Towns like they did at the beginning of last season makes me believe that they’ll be a top five offensive team and top ten defensive team, but not quite top five in both.
Russell Richardson: I hate this question and I wrote it. Prediction: Top 15 defense, top 10 offense . . . like ninth. The loss of Mitch’s gravity drops them defensively (see my A to Q6 below), and I expect Brown to limit the mileage on his best offensive players: they’ve already played a lot of basketball this year and this is an older team. Unless the plan is to burn through them this season and start rebuilding soon after, Mike’s gonna try to keep them fresh. Which would affect the win total (also see below).
2) Which Knick will take the biggest step forward, and who could have trouble matching last season?
Losada: The fact that everybody is familiar with the system, how Brown guides his pupils, and what everyone can and can’t do, I think we’re facing a very real possibility of watching these Knicks level up once again. If I have to pick someone taking a step forward, that’d be Mikal being confident from game one through 82 and beyond. Someone we might start to worry about sooner rather than later is Josh Hart, if only because of what he’s great at — never-tiring chaos causing — and his wheels getting so much run. Talking strictly about performance, I don’t see any clear candidate to regress, roles factored in.
Zeno: I also think a big season is coming for Mikal Bridges. If anyone can benefit from the weight being lifted off his shoulders after a title, it’s Mr. F— Them Picks. OG Anunoby is getting the early hype for All-Star consideration, but why can’t Mikal do it if he can finally blend his scoring and defense? As for regression, it’s either Jose Alvarado or Landry Shamet, just because the two were so incredible last year. I’ll lean Shamet, not because I don’t think he’s a great bench piece for this team, but because he set some lofty expectations in the playoffs.
Wollert: I agree with Michael that Shamet could have trouble matching last season since it’s hard to be a bench superstar for multiple years. My ultimate vote goes to KAT though with his contract situation lurking in the background and the reality that it is hard to keep your focus for an entire season. He gave the Knicks so much mentally in the playoffs and I have a tough time seeing that commitment in January against the Sacramentos of the world. On the other end of the spectrum I really hope Mo Diawara keeps his trajectory going upwards. So many of the other players were so close to their optimum at the end of last year that I could see him being the one guy who can really give more with a more defined role.
Kato: I’m tempted to go with Diawara just because he has arguably the most room to grow of any of the rotation players. And even though I think he’ll be fine, he has had a relatively inconsistent series of exhibition games between Summer League and preseason. I also think Bridges is a fun answer given the confidence boost and the lack of worry he may be playing with. As is Towns, who is coming off of a triumphant postseason run that proved just how impactful he could be on both sides of the ball. That being said, I think Bridges is still going to more or less be the same player in the regular season. And I do think it will be difficult for Towns to be the postseason version of himself for the entirety of the regular season. My vote goes to Anunoby, who we’ve seen be pretty aggressive in preseason. If he can up his free throw rate like he started off preseason doing, and continues to get on-ball initiation reps, I can see him making his first All-Star appearance.
Richardson: OG will have a few more thirty point games this season, so maybe that qualifies for a leap? And Cap will have a hard time. His skills and discipline remain unchanged, but living up to expectations after a championship is a major weight. No NBA player has a bigger target on his back. And I pray every night for his ankles.
3) Which reserve will matter most to the title defense? Who needs a bigger role before the playoffs?
Losada: So much has been made of the third-string center, but right now I’d care the same about having James Wiseman or placing a broomstick on the bench. It’s a clear-cut name here for me, and that’s Deuce McBride. Yes, the Knicks won it all with a poor postseason run from McBride, but I don’t think that can repeat itself, and hey, the better he plays, the better package the Knicks will do in return for him at the deadline, also boosting their title-defense chances! No bigger roles for nobody, status quo on the rotation.
Zeno: Yep, Deuce. I do not care how rough he looked for much of the playoff run. He barely got his conditioning back from a multi-month core injury before ramping up to high-stakes playoff games. He’s a guy who needs to prove he’s worth the $15 million a year that a player of his archetype deserves, and while I’m very skeptical he will be a Knick beyond this year, he is the player who can most expand this team’s ceiling.
Wollert: It clearly is Jordan Clarkson with his voodoo like abilities that healed OG and kept almost the entire team healthy throughout the postseason. No matching that for any opponent. On a serious note I really hope Andre Drummond can give the Knicks a little something of what Mitch gave them off the bench for years. Not only the rebounding but a physical, gigantic presence with elbows, bumps and bruises for the opponent. If he can’t provide it there probably isn’t anyone else who can.
Kato: The backup center position is noteworthy. But one, Robinson wasn’t necessarily a force to be reckoned with in the Finals, and two, the backup center in the postseason may not even be on the roster right now. I still agree with the others and lean McBride. I know the Knicks won it all despite a poor offensive showing from him last Finals, but he’s still so valuable and has the ability to raise the ceiling of the guys he shares the floor with and ultimately, the team, unlike any other reserve.
Richardson: Landry Shamet will get votes for sixth man of the year. But I believe the most important bench player is not yet on the team. (Dun dun dunnnnnhhh)
4) Which Eastern Conference opponent poses the biggest threat, and what about that matchup worries you?
Losada: I will never not fear the Celtics the same I will never trust the Sixers to keep the puzzle together for more than short stretches of games, let alone a playoff series. Perhaps watching Toronto in the last preseason game and how tight things were, the Raps have something big in store for these Knicks when the postseason comes. KAT ate the Raptors alive on Thursday, but not the only one that matters in Scottie Barnes, so we’ll see how that goes when the bright lights are on.
Zeno: If the Sixers somehow find the magic elixir that keeps LeBron youthful and gives Embiid some fresh knee cartilage, it’s them, but they’ll be starting Adem Bona by playoff time most likely. If Kawhi stays healthy (not as much of a guarantee as some seem to believe), the Raptors could move the needle. Maybe if the Celtics’ shooting gets hot in the playoffs, or Miami gets enough from Klay Thompson and Tim Hardaway Jr. You know what? It’s the Pacers. It’s a WWE-esque storyline that’s setting up here if these two meet for a third time in four years. The only team in the last three years to beat the Knicks in a playoff series will have that confidence every time they play them this season.
Wollert: Pacers are a good pick, even if they look vastly different this time around. Philly only worries me because the world is unfair and could have us losing to that group of not exactly likable fellas. From a pure matchup standpoint there isn’t one team in the East that the Knicks can’t handle, they all have major weaknesses and question marks. New York has them aswell obviously but certainly with this group have provided a lot more answers than anybody else.
Kato: The scary and the fun part about the eastern conference this season is that you can argue that eight, maybe nine, teams will consider anything short of a conference finals appearance a failure. But for, the only one I that I think has not just the talent, but the matchup, to beat the Knicks four our of seven times is the Pacers. Maybe it’s just because of recency bias that I feel that way. But I can’t fully trust the 76ers’ ability to stay healthy, defend, or get collective buy in to sacrifice. The Raptors are scary defensively, but do they have enough offensively? The Heat are likely a year or a couple pieces away. The Pistons are still flawed for postseason basketball in my eyes. And the Cavaliers, well, they just aren’t beating the Knicks in a playoff series anytime soon for a myriad of reasons.
Richardson: Everybody’s sleeping on Charlotte, huh? Make mine teal!
5) What is your boldest Knicks prediction for 2026–27? Give us something we can hold against you in April.
Losada: Knowing Leon Rose and writing this against the backdrop of the Dolan-second apron summer, I’m going to go bold and say Rose completes a trade we don’t ever see coming. And no, I’m not talking about the likes of Dadiet, Diawara, or Kolek. Not talking about landing a first-round pick. I’m talking about a foundation-shaking deal, involving one or multiple of KAT, OG, Hart, and Bridges.
Zeno: Josh Hart finishes the season coming off the bench. This starting lineup has been together for two years under two different coaches, has played thousands and thousands of minutes together, and has found a groove in the playoffs. That said, there are limitations, and an injury to Hart (or some complications with his gnarly finger) could push him to the bench for Shamet or McBride.
Wollert: James Wiseman will become an important rotation piece and is a major contributor come playoff time. Opponents will fear him on the offensive glass and have no answers for him as a lob threat – atleast not with their second units. Yes, that preseason kool-aid is still tasting like magic. If it ever wears off in the next few days I’d join Antonio in the “KAT might get traded” camp. Not because they don’t value him but because they don’t want to lose him for nothing down the road. His value is at an all time high too.
Kato: I know the Knicks recently announced that they wouldn’t be negotiating extensions until later in the season. The uneasiness of hearing that have lead many fans to take that as the team saying they won’t be negotiating at all this season. My prediction is that a Towns negotiation happens at some point this season. As I’ve done in the past in pregame and preseason predictions, this is another instance of me trying to speak something into existence. But I do think that the two sides will budge a bit and realize that they not like like each other, but are good for each other, and get some sort of deal done.
Richardson: The NBA goes on strike, not to fight for more equitable treatment of mid-tier employees, but to screw the Knicks out of their repeat bid.
6) What will the Knicks’ final record and playoff seed be, and how will their season end? Would anything short of a repeat feel disappointing?
Losada: I stopped taking John Hollinger seriously or reading his content a few years ago, but I tend to agree with his prediction for the Eastern Conference’s regular season. I see as many as six teams ending within two or three games’ distance, and perhaps none of them winning even 50 games. The Cavaliers or the Pistons will win the 82-game circuit because that’s all they win, if anything, and the Knicks will likely take it easy and finish in the 4-6 seed. Give me a 49-33 record for New York and a first-round matchup against the Raptors or the Celtics. Regarding the back-to-back title: I’m set for life with last year’s chip. That’s it for me.
Zeno: No idea. The East is stacked; this team is built for the playoffs, and they don’t seem to be as gung-ho in the regular season. I have a hard time believing this team will regress that much from their pre-KAT hub days as a 53-win team, but what if someone gets hurt? All bets are off. I’ll stake my claim on 51-31, a No. 3 seed, and a trip to the NBA Finals, where the grown-up Spurs get revenge. I will not be mad if this team doesn’t repeat, especially when I spent much of my life thinking they’d never win one, but if they lose to someone like Indiana or Philly or even Boston? I’ll be annoyed.
Wollert: Top seed in the East, baby, 55 wins and not looking in the rearview mirror. I’ve never been as pleased and happy going into a season, just cool, calm and collected. In due time that will wear off, plenty of things will go wrong and the all out pessimist in me will kick the little angel off my shoulder. But before it’s pitchfork time I believe that these Knicks can do no wrong, will get back to the Finals and beat the Spurs for the repeat. If they fall short I definitely will be dissapointed but will surely get over it quicker than in the past. I should, right? Maybe? No, it will still be awful.
Kato: The east is back to being a beast. The team is one year older and coming off of a championship. And they lost Robinson. I do think a lot of that will be offset with the fact that they unlocked a level of basketball perfection that the team had never previously sniffed. But it’s hard to keep that up for all 82 games, especially when finishing first in the regular season does not mean much for them. They’ve proven they relish playing on the road, and I can see them coming out the gates a bit slow, and taking the regular season slightly lightly. They’ll still be great, but I expect them to win 51 games and finish as a third or fourth seed after the 76ers, Celtics, and maybe the Pistons.
Richardson: Under 50 wins, sixth seed. A winner hasn’t repeated in seven or eight years, and this team won’t break the streak. NY was blessed with health last season. Making Towns an offensive hub in the playoffs added a complexity that opposing teams had no time to prepare for. Mitch was more important in five minute stints than we fully understand. And by confronting the team about their petty dislikes, Brown got everyone pulling in the same direction for the playoffs. Staying healthy is hard, especially with a so-so second unit forcing the starters to play longer; rival teams have added players to counteract NY’s offense; Drummond is good, but will not alter opposing strategies the same way Mitch does; and winning has a way of distorting egos. I could see an ECF. I can’t see the Finals again. And based on my optical prescription, it’s clear I can barely see at all.
Wizards rookie AJ Dybantsa could be the team’s franchise player in a few seasons. | Getty Images
For the first time since the 2022-23 season, the Washington Wizards will be trying to win games. That’s not an innovative endeavor in professional sports, though it’s not one the franchise has successfully implemented for…well…decades.
The team made a series of moves during the 2025-26 season and in the offseason to boost the overall talent level. The big additions are Trae Young (who appeared in five games last season before getting parked), Anthony Davis (zero games last season), and AJ Dybantsa, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.
Those three are — at least theoretically — massive talent upgrades. I say “theoretically” because of the health histories of Young and Davis and the perfectly normal “how soon does he get it?” questions about any 19-year-old, even enormously gifted ones like Dybantsa.
They further improved their big man rotation by trading for Deandre Ayton.
The front office made sure they had strong veteran leaders by bringing back Khris Middleton and Anthony Gill. And they shuffled some names at the end of the bench with a trade to absorb the contract of Tre Mann and the selection of Felix Okpara in the second round.
The roster is…interesting. In Davis, Young, Ayton, and Middleton they have a group that might have formed the nucleus of a good team 3-5 years ago. In Dybantsa, Alex Sarr, Kyshawn George, Bilal Coulibaly, Tre Johnson, and Bub Carrington they have a group of youngsters who could form a good team 3-5 years in the future.
The new try to win strategy will increase scrutiny on Brian Keefe, who sports one of the worst winning percentages in league history. The team made some changes to the coaching staff, promoting Adam Caporn (well respected around the league, and also coach of the Australian national team) to lead assistant, Cody Toppert from his role coaching the Capital City Go-Go, adding Patrick Ewing as a big man coach, and former NBA head coach Steve Clifford as an advisor.
David Vanterpool, who’d been the lead assistant the past three seasons, moves into a front office job.
A Few Words on Minutes
This year’s forecast presented some unique challenges. Biggest of these was guesstimating minutes. For the holdover Wizards, past may not be prelude. More productive youngsters (Sarr, Coulibaly, George) likely missed games and saw reduced minutes because of the team’s commitment to losing — not because the various injuries and ailments would have kept them out of games if they’d been trying to win.
On the other hand, Carrington played more than 2,200 minutes (and all 82 games) in each of his first two seasons. Odds of him playing another 2,000+ minutes this season are minuscule.
Veterans like Young and Davis have missed time throughout the past few seasons due to injury, including huge chunks of last season. Both could have played more last season…if the Wizards had been trying to win. Both have fairly recent seasons with high minutes.
Davis played 2,700 regular season minutes in 2023-24. But he’s missed a lot of time since. Compounding the challenge is that he’s 33-years-old, which is when NBA players typically do two things: get injured and get worse. So, while I anticipate Davis will play more than he has the past couple seasons, I’d be surprised if he cracks 2,000 minutes. My guesstimate for him is 1,650.
Young, on the other hand, has been reasonably healthy. He played 2,739 minutes in 2024-25, and has appeared in less than 2,000 minutes just twice in his career. In one of them, he played 1,942 minutes. He surely would have played much more last year if wasn’t for The Tank. Bottom line: Young has been reasonably healthy throughout his career, and can probably be counted on to be available. I have him guesstimated at 2,375 this season.
2026-27 Player Forecasts
These forecasts use my Player Production Average (PPA) metric. PPA is an all-around rating tool that credits players for things they do that help a team win, and debits for things that don’t — each in proportion to how individual players contribute to NBA wins and losses. PPA is pace neutral and includes accounting for defense, role and the level of competition a player faces when he’s on the floor. In PPA, average is 100, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.
Below are results from four different forecast approaches: one using my Statistical Doppelgänger Machine (DOPP), another using a predicted PPA based on an age-adjusted career curve (dubbed MILK in honor of sports economist David Berri, who wore that NBA players, “…age like milk…”), a simple weighted three-year average PPA (SIMP) and another that applies an aging adjustment to that weighted three-year average (SAGE).
I estimated minutes by using a weighted average of each player’s minutes in recent seasons, as well as my best guess at each player’s role in the team’s rotation this season.
Key
Last PPA = PPA last season
DOPP = forecasted PPA using the Doppelgänger approach
MILK = forecasted PPA using last season’s PPA and an age adjustment
SIMP = forecasted PPA using a “simple” weighted three-year average PPA
SAGE = forecasted PPA using a “simple” weighted three-year average and an age adjustment
BLEND = forecasted PPA using an average of the four approaches above
The *** represents my best guess of which forecast is most probable for each individual.
Before getting into the forecasts, I’m dubious about the SIMP and SAGE approaches, at least for younger players. The SIMP approach (weighted three-year average) forecasts lower scores for young guys, who typically play their worst as rookies and then improve. The age adjustment in the SAGE method improves that estimate somewhat, but still has the same underlying issue.
My feeling based on having done these for a few years is that DOPP and MILK are probably going to be better for players in their first 3-4 seasons, and that SIMP and SAGE will be applicable to established veterans.
Trae Young
Sublime and inventive passer with a ton of skill and craft across his offensive game. Young’s penchant for jacking up long threes is something of a drain on his offensive efficiency, and his adventurous passing leads to a lot of turnovers. Still, he’s a dynamic offensive player, who has a history of generating a high number of trips to the free throw line.
He’s been one of the NBA’s worst defenders for eight seasons because he’s small, slender, and hasn’t played with much alertness or effort on that end. In Washington, he says he’s going to work harder, which seemed to be the case in preseason.
Last PPA: 137
DOPP: 131
MILK: 134
SIMP: 137
SAGE: 134
BLEND: 134***
Kyshawn George
Skillful and competitive player, who improved his shooting last season. He tries hard on defense, and he’s huge — at least 6-8 and getting stronger because of a borderline psycho offseason regimen.
The competitiveness has led to excessive fouling and turnovers, which have undermined his overall impact. He was named a starter at the beginning of trainging camp, and he had a great preseason.
Players most like George tended to improve at this point in their careers, though the improvement was somewhat modest. George seems primed for a major leap, however.
Last PPA: 87
DOPP: 88
MILK: 100***
SIMP: 68
SAGE: 78
BLEND: 84
AJ Dybantsa
The uber talented, hyper-athletic forward was Washington’s prize for sustained losing. He was the No. 1 overall selection in a historically good draft, and he has all the tools to be an elite scorer for the next dozen years.
The Wizards may have to wait to see him in regular season action — he turned an ankle in the final preseason game and is listed as day-to-day. (My guess: he plays. He’s 19-years-old and is probably already fully healed.)
For forecasting rookies, I use a system based on production over the past decade from players in a similar draft position.
Forecasted Rookie PPA: 121
Anthony Davis
Davis has been a great player, especially on the defensive end in the postseason. His regular season defensive impact has been more hit or miss, which could be said of his shooting away from the basket (though more miss than hit). And he’s tended to get hurt a lot. And he’s aging. And he wants a massive contract extension.
My guess is he’ll miss time again, though not as much as previous seasons. I don’t think he’ll appear in enough games to qualify for awards. The hope is that he’s healthy enough for long enough that Sarr and the other youngsters can learn from his defensive communication.
Don’t be shocked if he’s elsewhere by the trade deadline.
Last PPA: 157
DOPP: 143
MILK: 130
SIMP: 169
SAGE: 140
BLEND: 146***
Alex Sarr
The No. 2 overall selection in the 2024 NBA Draft, Sarr is another of Washington’s tanking prizes. After one of the least efficient offensive seasons in NBA history as a rookie, Sarr improved significantly at that end. He showed off a much improved post game, better shooting from everywhere, and even some passing chops.
His strength seemed to be on defense, where he held his own switching onto perimeter players and was a busy and effective rim protector. The presence of Davis and Ayton should alleviate some of the burden he had to shoulder, which could result in a more efficient and effective player.
Still just 21-years-old, Sarr could develop into a truly great player over the next few seasons. The next two are when NBA players typically make their biggest leaps.
Last PPA: 132
DOPP: 140
MILK: 191
SIMP: 116
SAGE: 168
BLEND: 154***
Bilal Coulibaly
This is a make or break season for French wing. Coulibaly is long, quick, fast, and bouncy, which helps make him into an effective and disruptive defender.
His offensive game has been an adventure. Passive at times, over-aggressive at others. His three-point shooting has been deficient, though defenders have had trouble staying in front of him when he decides to drive.
He’s improved each season of his career and is at a crossroads — he’s a restricted free agent at the end of the season, unless he unexpectedly reaches an agreement on an extension.
Last PPA: 101
DOPP: 112***
MILK: 131
SIMP: 88
SAGE: 114
BLEND: 111
Deandre Ayton
Acquired to be a backup big and an insurance policy against Davis’ frequent outages, Ayton is also at a career crossroads. He’s talented and fairly productive, and his teams keep wanting to get rid of him.
In Washington, he’ll primarily come off the bench for the first time in his career (assuming Davis plays) but should get plenty of minutes. If he buys in and produces, he’ll likely command at least an MLE-level deal going forward. If not, he could be relegated to minimum salary deals.
Last PPA: 144
DOPP: 140
MILK: 141
SIMP: 137
SAGE: 134
BLEND: 138***
Bub Carrington
Carrington has yet to miss a game in his two NBA seasons. He’s competitive and shot above 40% on threes last season. He’s likely to play less this season, and probably wouldn’t have played so much on a better team.
The quality of his play didn’t tick up despite the better shooting. He’ll need to get better at both ends to maintain a spot in the rotation.
Last PPA: 61
DOPP: 77***
MILK: 88
SIMP: 60
SAGE: 87
BLEND: 78
Tre Johnson
Good-maybe-great shooter. The question on Johnson is whether he can show more dimension to his game — some playmaking, a few more rebounds, better defense. It wouldn’t hurt to get a lot stronger, which may take some time since he’s still just 20-years-old.
Last PPA: 61
DOPP: 74***
MILK: 67
SIMP: 61
SAGE: 67
BLEND: 67
Khris Middleton
Entering his age 35 season, Middleton figures to be at the end of the team’s rotation. He’s the team’s elder statesman, and he’s seen it all — winning a title with the Milwaukee Bucks, missing huge chunks of seasons with a series of injuries, battling back to be productive even as he’s aged.
Odds are, Middleton’s days as a productive player are in the rearview mirror. He still has a lot of veteran savvy to contribute, and there will probably a game or three or five where he comes through big time for the team.
Last PPA: 67
DOPP: 67
MILK: 50
SIMP: 90
SAGE: 50
BLEND: 64***
Justin Champagnie
Good player the past couple seasons, but he appears to be the odd man out of the rotation — at least to start the season. My guess is he’ll still get more than a thousand minutes this season, and that he’ll be pretty good again. I would not be surprised to see him end up elsewhere as part of a multi-player and draft pick trade.
Last PPA: 105
DOPP: 106***
MILK: 108
SIMP: 104
SAGE: 107
BLEND: 106
2026-27 Prediction
The good news: this year’s Washington Wizards will be more competitive this season. At least some of the youngsters will improve — perhaps significantly — and the team has some skilled veterans with histories of high-level performances.
The bad news: they’re still not ready to be good. The youngsters are still a few years from their primes. The oldsters are likely past their primes already. That’s a statement that includes Young and Ayton, who are both entering their age 28 season, by the way.
The years of tanking have given the Wizards two potential stars in Dybantsa and Sarr, though both are likely several seasons from achieving that status. George and Coulibaly seem like probable rotation-level players. Davis, Young, and Ayton will outproduce guys previously on the roster, even if they fall short of their previous heights.
The various forecasting approaches yield the following forecasted wins totals:
DOPP: 32.2 (last season’s forecast 15.6)
MILK: 34.3 (15.2)
SIMP: 28.3 (14.8)
SAGE: 31.8 (15.2)
BLEND: 32.3 (15.8)
While the above feels kinda disappointing, even the worst of these would mark significant improvement for the Wizards. Last season, they managed just 18 wins.
If everyone reaches their best-case forecast, I guesstimate the team could reach 36 wins. In an all-peaks scenario, they could get to 41.
My prediction is a season of significant improvement. I anticipate the older players will be good, though well short of their previous peaks and that the youngsters will continue improving. I would not be surprised to see a veteran or two departing midseason as the front office tries to position the team to arrive in the postseason as a contender.
Final Prediction: 34-48 and 11th in the Eastern Conference.
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - SEPTEMBER 23: Colton Cowser #17 of the Baltimore Orioles walks back to the dugout out during game one of a baseball doubleheader against the Toronto Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 23, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Orioles had a bottom 10 outfield by public defensive metrics. Even worse, they had the lowest slugging percentage of all 30 MLB teams for their outfielders. Mike Elias’s plan of getting power out of his outfield with his free agent signing Tyler O’Neill, his trade acquisition Taylor Ward, and his draft picks Colton Cowser and Dylan Beavers, was a total bust. Between injuries and poor performances, there was a rotating cast of players, some of whom were just… so bad.
In contrast to last week’s episode, where the Orioles relievers were better than expected, this outfield group was just so much worse than expected. Anybody could have guessed there were going to be defensive liabilities from the group going into the season. Even so, the magnitude was so much greater, and they sure didn’t get the power trade-off that Elias was probably imagining.
Check out this week’s episode where I run through all of the outfielders, who was good (was anyone?) and who wasn’t:
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This is my weekly podcast about whatever is going on lately with the Orioles. If you enjoyed this episode, please make sure to subscribe. You can get the show on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you prefer to access your podcasts.
How are you feeling about the way things are going with the Orioles as we head towards the beginning of the offseason? Answers could make it into the mailbag section of a future episode of the podcast.
The start of the 2026-27 NBA regular season is less than 48 hours away, and the first game is an exciting matchup between the Boston Celtics and Detroit Pistons.
The Celtics had a very busy offseason, highlighted by the blockbuster trade that sent Jaylen Brown to the rival Philadelphia 76ers in exchange for Paul George and two first-round draft picks.
The C’s also signed center Mitchell Robinson and point guard Mike Conley Jr. in free agency, while re-signing Neemias Queta, Ron Harper Jr. and Jordan Walsh. Payton Pritchard reportedly signed a two-year extension last week.
So, the roster will definitely look a bit different for Tuesday’s season opener. Despite the loss of Brown, a lot of experts are bullish on the Celtics’ ability to be a top-three team in the Eastern Conference standings again.
But can the Celtics make a surprise run to the 2027 NBA Finals?
Our friends at Sim Station simulated the entire 2026-27 campaign. Let’s take a look at the results below.
Celtics stats
NBC Sports Boston
Jayson Tatum put up solid all-around stats, but his numbers wouldn’t be good enough to return to first-team All-NBA status.
Part of the reason for Tatum’s lower-than-expected scoring average could be the fact that Paul George averaged just under 18 points per game and Derrick White scored a career-high 17.3 points per game.
Jaylen Brown’s Sixers debut
NBC Sports Boston
Jaylen Brown finished third on the Sixers in scoring with 25.2 points per game.
It would be his third career season averaging 25-plus points per contest.
NBA Cup
NBC Sports Boston
The Celtics finished atop East Group C with a 3-1 record.
They beat the Cleveland Cavaliers in the quarterfinals of the NBA Cup tournament before eliminating the Detroit Pistons in the semifinals.
The Celtics’ rivalry with the Los Angeles Lakers is re-ignited in the NBA Cup final, where L.A. wins its second in-season tournament crown.
Eastern Conference standings
NBC Sports Boston
The Celtics finished with a 47-35 record, good enough for third in the Atlantic Division and fourth in the conference.
They tied the 76ers but owned the tiebreaker, therefore earning homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
Two of the best stretches of the season for the C’s were a seven-game win streak from Jan. 16 through Jan. 27. They also went 14-4 from Feb. 9 through March 21.
Awards and leaders
NBC Sports Boston
Oklahoma City Thunder point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won NBA MVP for the third straight year. He becomes the first player to win three straight MVPs since Celtics Hall of Famer Larry Bird in 1984 through 1986.
Utah Jazz guard Darryn Peterson wins Rookie of the Year.
The scoring champion is Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Doncic, who averages 32.4 points per game.
2027 NBA Playoffs
NBC Sports Boston
The Celtics get their revenge on the Sixers. Philly beat the Celtics in Game 7 of the first round last season, but in this simulation, it’s Boston advancing in a first-round sweep.
The Celtics meet the Pistons in the conference semifinals, re-igniting a rivalry that hasn’t had a playoff series since the 2008 conference finals. The C’s survive by winning Game 7 on the road in Detroit.
Another rivalry series awaits in the Eastern Conference finals, where the Celtics end the Knicks’ title defense in a short five-game series. The C’s advance to the NBA Finals with a Game 5 victory at Madison Square Garden.
For the first time, despite both teams making a combined 11 NBA Finals appearances since 1999, the Spurs and Celtics finally meet with a championship at stake.
After losing to the Knicks in five games in last season’s Finals, the Spurs prevail and win their sixth championship with a dramatic Game 7 victory in San Antonio.
Spurs superstar Victor Wembanyama wins Finals MVP after averaging 26.4 points per game in the series, including a stellar Game 4 performance in which he scored 36 points with 17 rebounds.
Nimmo's deal runs through 2030, with Semien's ending after the 2028 season.
While Nimmo was still an above average offensive player at the time of the trade, his defense had regressed in a big way. It continued to trend down in 2026, with Nimmo in the 12th percentile in OAA, via Baseball Savant.
Meanwhile, trading Nimmo allowed the Mets to shift Juan Soto to left field, use Carson Benge in right field, and promote prospect A.J. Ewing from Triple-A on May 12 -- with Ewing quickly becoming the regular center fielder and key contributor on both sides of the ball.
The hope with Semien, who had just won a Gold Glove award at second base for the Rangers in 2025, was that he would provide stellar up-the-middle defense while possibly rebounding at the plate.
Neither of those things happened, and the Mets are now facing an early crossroads with Semien, who is owed $26 million in 2027 and $20 million in 2028 (with a payroll hit of $24 million annually for luxury tax purposes).
Given the developing situation with Semien, who should New York's second baseman be in 2027? Let's break down the likely options...
Semien's offensive struggles worsened in 2026, as he went from being a bit below average (93 OPS+ in 2025) to one of the least productive everyday players in the sport (74 OPS+).
His last average or better season with the bat came in 2024, when he had 23 homers and a 103 OPS+ in his age-33 season.
More alarming than Semien's offensive futility were his difficulties defensively.
Jul 29, 2026; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets second baseman Marcus Semien (10) attempts to turn a double play after forcing out Atlanta Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies (1) during the fifth inning at second base at Citi Field. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
A hip issue he played through early in the season might have impacted things, but the overall numbers were ugly, with Semien in the fifth percentile in OAA (worth -9).
Given Semien's prowess as an elite defensive second baseman from 2021 through 2025, there should be at least some hope he can recapture that form. But even if he does, the offensive issues could do him in.
Asked during his end-of-season news conference at Citi Field whether he was ready to declare Semien the Mets' starting second baseman in 2027, president of baseball operations David Stearns was non-committal, potentially foreshadowing a quick changing of the guard.
In the same news conference where he addressed Semien's shaky hold on the position, Stearns talked up Baty.
"I think Brett showed us for the last four-to-six weeks of the season what his ceiling looks like," Stearns noted. "And as I said, we need him to get to that ceiling more consistently."
About that hot finish Stearns was referencing: Baty slashed .352/.427/.592 (1.018 OPS) in 82 plate appearances over his final 30 games of the season. Overall in 2026, Baty hit just .236/.309/.371 (.681 OPS) in 143 games, which was a step back from the career-best .748 OPS he put up in 2025.
While Baty has upside with the bat and provides versatility defensively, he has a career .671 OPS (.91 OPS+) in parts of five big league seasons. So the time to find consistency would be now.
If Baty can't turn the corner offensively as a starter, his best fit could be as a super utility player who can handle third base, second base, first base, and both corner outfield spots.
The Mets were able to pry Rojas from the Cubs in the trade deadline deal that sent Clay Holmes and Tyrone Taylor to Chicago, and the 21-year-old shot straight to the top of SNY's top 30 Mets prospects list.
After joining the Mets organization, Rojas caught fire, smacking nine homers and posting a .929 OPS in 29 games for Double-A Binghamton before a late-season promotion to Triple-A Syracuse. In 29 plate appearances over six games with Syracuse, Rojas hit .308/.345/.692 -- homering in his first three games at the level.
/ Knoxville Smokies infielder Jefferson Rojas (2) scores a run during a Minor League baseball game between the Knoxville Smokies and Birmingham Barons at Covenant Health Park in Knoxville, Tenn., on June 2, 2026.
Rojas can play third base in addition to second base, so he could be an answer for the Mets at the hot corner in the unlikely event Bo Bichette doesn't opt in to his contract for 2027, which would pay him $42 million.
If Bichette opts in as expected, Rojas should be in pole position to take over as the starting second baseman sooner rather than later.
Rojas isn't the only top Mets infield prospect who is getting close to the majors.
Voit, who put up a very respectable .745 OPS in 76 games for A-level Brooklyn while playing his home games in a really tough environment for hitters, erupted after being promoted to Binghamton, hitting .347/.430/.517 in 29 games.
Entering his age-22 season in 2027, Voit will likely start the year back with the Rumble Ponies. But he should be knocking on the door soon enough.
Along with Rojas and Voit, Émilien Pitre -- whom the Mets acquired from the Rays in the Freddy Peralta trade -- could be another second base option in the near future.
The 24-year-old Pitre doesn't hit for much power, but he has gotten on base at a prolific rate in three minor league seasons, with a .389 OBP. Pitre's OBP across three levels for the Rays and Mets in 2026 (he finished the season with Syracuse) was .420.
***
Using spring training (whenever that is, given the uncertainty surrounding the CBA) to see how Semien looks makes sense. And it wouldn't be illogical to give Semien a shot when the bell rings to show his 2026 was an aberration.
But if Semien looks similar to the player he was this past season, the Mets should be quickly prepared to turn to Rojas as the starter at second base. And given Stearns' comments about the situation at the end of the season, that seems to be a likely scenario.
Welcome to our weekly Monday Morning NBA notebook, a quick hit of NBA news and injuries from around the league to catch you up on what happened in the past week. If you've been focused on football — or going to a Doja Cat concert, or just enjoying life — and not been paying much attention to the NBA, we've got you covered. Here's what you need to know.
Simmons was out of the league last season, focusing on getting his body healthy — after years of lingering back issues and multiple surgeries — and his mind in a good place. It appeared to have worked. Reports out of Sacramento had been overwhelmingly positive, and Simmons, 30, averaged 10.5 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists in 17.4 minutes per preseason game. He was expected to be a starter. Now a fluke injury has sidelined him.
It also leaves Kings' coach Doug Christie scrambling to round out his rotations.
Stephen Curry sprains ankle
Golden State's Mr. Everything Stephen Curry gave everyone a scare when he limped straight to the locker room during a public practice on Sunday.
Steph Curry limps off the court at open practice and he just went back to the locker room @NBCSWarriors
After practice, coach Steve Kerr said Curry was “fine” and downplayed it as a tweaked ankle. Officially, the Warriors have said it's a sprain, although it doesn't appear to be severe.
The Warriors open the season on Wednesday against the Lakers. Curry's status will be worth monitoring.
Kristaps Porzingis still away from Warriors
Warriors big man Kristaps Porzingis came in this week and met with general manager Mike Dunleavy and vice president of player health & performance Dr. Rick Celebrini about his still-undisclosed ailment. There is no timeline for his return, but Porzingis said he is improving, is frustrated, and shot down some of the most ridiculous (but somehow gaining traction) speculation among Warriors faithful.
This is a good bit of work by both sides. The Oklahoma City Thunder lock up now-starting guard Cason Wallace with a five-year, $139 million contract extension. With that, the Thunder now have their starting five, plus bench star Alex Caruso, under contract for multiple years.
Wallace, 22 and Second Team All-Defense last season, will step into a larger role as a starter for the Thunder this season, stepping into Lu Dort's role (Dort was traded to Atlanta in a cost-cutting move). Wallace could have bet on himself and a big restricted free agent market next summer, but surveyed the landscape and decided to stay with the only team he has known on a healthy contract.
NBA season tips off Tuesday
Welcome to the start of the NBA season — and it all begins with an epic triple-header on NBC and Peacock.
• Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons, 3 p.m. Eastern. For all the focus on other teams in the East, these were the top two seeds in the conference a year ago and with Jayson Tatum and Cade Cunningham, they are going to be back near the top again. • Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks, ring ceremony at 6:30 p.m., game at 7 p.m. Eastern. Newcomers LeBron James and Jaylen Brown lead Philadelphia into Madison Square Garden as the 76ers look to spoil ring night for Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns and the rest of the Knicks. • Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs, 9:30 p.m. Eastern. Game 8 of last year's epic Western Conference Finals, with a showdown between two MVP favorites: Victor Wembanyama and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
You can catch all the games on NBC or stream them on Peacock.
Other NBA news, notes
• Nuggets wing Julian Strawther suffered a sprained left knee and is out indefinitely, he will be re-evaluated in six weeks. Strawther suffered the injury in a preseason game against the Clippers, and it looked worse than it turned out to be. With Peyton Watson no longer in Denver, Strawther, the 24-year-old fourth-year player out of Gonzaga, is poised to take on a bigger role with the team, but that is now on hold.
• The New York Knicks waived veteran guard Bruce Brown. As reported a few days before, the Knicks coaching staff and front office wanted to keep Brown on the roster this season, but to do so and stay under the second apron of the luxury tax — as mandated by owner James Dolan — they would have needed to trade Pacome Dadiet or Tyler Kolek, and no deal was available, so Brown was waived. Reserve big man James Wiseman gets the final roster spot. Don't expect Brown to be out of a job for long.
• The Philadelphia 76ers are keeping fan favorite, 7'6" Tacko Fall around on a two-way contract to start the season. For a team with depth questions at center, there are good basketball reasons for this, but it just makes a lot of fans happy to see him play.
• The good news for the Kings was that reserve center Maxime Raynaud suffered "only" a right patellar subluxation that will keep him out a couple of weeks. It looked a lot worse when it happened. While there is no timeline for a return, Raynaud — Second Team All-Rookie last season — should be back early in the season.
On top of that, another Kings center, Dylan Cardwell, suffered a left calf strain and will miss a couple of weeks at the start of the season. That leaves the Kings thin at center. Domantas Sabonis will start at the five, but after him it's now Precious Achiuwa (more of a four) and two-way player Jonathan Mogbo.
• The Charlotte Hornets chose to waive veteran guard Pat Connaughton — who was on a non-guaranteed contract — which means they keep former No. 6 pick Tidjane Salaun (current GM Jeff Peterson's first pick).
• The Clippers' Brandon Ingram is back to doing on-court work and getting closer to a return, but he is still going to miss the start of the season and there is no timetable for his return. The Clippers need his shot creation.
• Also with the Clippers, they waived Cam Christie, but then brought him back on a two-way contract. For two seasons after the Clippers drafted him in the second round, Christie — brother of Dallas' Max Christie — has teased fans and the organization with his potential, but he never seemed to develop. The Clippers had to make roster cuts, and after a rough preseason Christie was the guy not making the final 15, but keeping him around is smart.
• Thunder rookie Otega Oweh, the No. 41 pick in last June's NBA Draft out of Kentucky and on a two-way contract, suffered a torn Achilles and is out for the season.
• The Suns and young center Oso Ighodaro agreed to a three-year, $29 million contract extension that will keep him with the team through 2031. Ighodaro played 82 games with Phoenix last season, was solid, and will have a real opportunity to grow that role this season.
The New York Islanders have suddenly and quickly played 10% of their season, with the exact figure sitting just over 9.5%.
As soon as the first period Tuesday night against the Anaheim Ducks is concluded, that'll be 10% of the season done and dusted.
Through eight games, the Islanders are 4-3-1, good for nine points. That leaves the Islanders one point adrift of both the Washington Capitals for third in the Metropolitan Division and the Buffalo Sabres for the final wild-card playoff spot.
Washington has only played eight games, same as the Islanders. Buffalo, however, sits with nine played.
By points percentage, if the season ended today, the Islanders would be headed to the playoffs for the first time in three years.
Moneypuck.com makes it all look rather simple by their odds.
That's the Islanders' competition right there, point-blank.
The Pennsylvania teams, the Philadelphia Flyers and Pittsburgh Penguins, both are well below .500 and have had big trade rumors swirl around their clubs two weeks before Halloween.
The Columbus Blue Jackets remain wildly inconsistent, and look further from a playoff spot than they were last year.
That then leaves the Islanders, Devils, and Rangers.
The Islanders have an extremely clear X-factor:
Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov, emphasis on Sorokin.
The Devils goaltenders? Jake Allen and Nico Daws. The Rangers lost Igor Shesterkin for the year due to a lower-body injury. Right now, they've got rookie Dylan Garand and journeyman Spencer Martin as their duo, with Joonas Korpisalo expected back from injury in mid-November.
Ilya Sorokin is the standout goalie in the Metropolitan Division, with Logan Thompson the only healthy goalie that comes anywhere close.
It's the Islanders' biggest X-factor against any team, and it's plain to see, especially when you look at the state of the Devils' goaltending. It's hard to see a path to true contention for the Devils unless they make a massive in-season trade for a goalie.
That leaves the Islanders and the Rangers for the final playoff spot. The Rangers hold a four-point edge over the Islanders right now.
Had the Islanders beaten the Rangers at Madison Square Garden in the second week of the year, the Islanders would sit tied for second in the Metropolitan Division, with the Rangers.
That's how narrow the gap is right now, with Washington in the middle but expected to finish second behind the perennial division champs, the Carolina Hurricanes.
The next six months look set to become an incredible chapter in the Islanders and Rangers rivalry.
Huascar Brazobán’s Mets tenure was undeniably a highly successful one. Acquired for a pittance at the 2024 deadline from the Marlins ($10 for you if you can name the prospect the Mets gave up in that deal without looking it up), the 36-year-old posted 135.2 innings of 3.45 ERA ball in Queens. He was a good soldier, too, functioning as a setup guy, an opener, a multi-inning fireman, and even an up-and-down option at times as the Mets’ bullpen went through several iterations during his tenure.
The first half of Brazobán’s 2026 was arguably the best performance of his major league career, with 52.2 innings of 2.56 ERA ball. There was even a shiny 2.75 xERA underlying that performance, which might suggest that this was somewhat sustainable. That mark could even an argument to hold Brazobán beyond the deadline given that he remains under team control until 2030the trade deadline.
In reality, this was a mirage. Brazobán, like countless relievers before him and countess after him, was succeeding on a unsustainable stretch of favorable contact suppression numbers. His K-BB% remained below average at 12.6%, his stuff pedestrian, and the top-line figures more dependent on a .206 BABIP in New York than an actual breakout at age 36. With this information in mind, the Mets made the prudent decision to sell high at the deadline, shipping Brazobán out to the south side of Chicago.
Brazobán then posted a 4.40 ERA (7.24 xERA) down the stretch, missing time with a lat injury. Yes, the White Sox will have him under control for multiple seasons, but that’s hardly the help they were looking for as they looked to make a deep playoff push. Meanwhile, the prospects the Mets got back are already paying dividends. Gabe Davis was widely regarded as a promising-but-poorly-optimized arm in the Chicago system (he had an ERA over 8 this season), then posted a 2.53 ERA in Binghamton while doing stuff like this every time he took the ball. Zach Franklin probably has better present stuff than Brazobán right now, and the odds he’s the better major league arm in 2027 are much closer to even than you’d think. Both Davis and Franklin are likely to be 2027 contributors.
If this story sounds nearly identical to that of Brooks Raley, you’d be right. The Mets did quite a good job of maximizing their veteran bullpen arms in the first half, then did an even better job of selling high and picking up solid prospects in return. We should all have some doubts about the Mets’ front office at this point, but this particular maneuver is one they’re executing better than just about anyone else right now. Hang your hat on what you can.
SAN FRANCISCO – A collective sigh of relief can be felt throughout the Bay Area and the entire basketball world from Steph Curry avoiding a serious injury on Sunday during Warriors open practice when he limped off the court.
The news got even better the next day.
Warriors coach Steve Kerr said Monday that Curry will be good to go for Wednesday’s regular-season opener against the Los Angeles Lakers at Crypto.com Arena. Curry has a sprained right ankle but was a full participant in Monday’s practice.
“I’m always concerned when Steph limps off,” Kerr said Monday. “But I went down and checked on him and he told me immediately he was fine.”
Curry rolled his right ankle trying to make a move on De’Anthony Melton as part of Sunday’s light scrimmage in front of thousands of fans. He bounced the ball hard twice in frustration, flapped his arms and limped to the sidelines, where he then continued limping down the hallway and to the Warriors’ locker room.
Steph Curry limps off the court at open practice and he just went back to the locker room @NBCSWarriors
Curry missed 43 games last season, including more than two months to runner’s knee. He averaged 13 points per game in the preseason in a little under 18 minutes a night, shooting 41.9 percent from 3-point range.
While Curry appears ready for the regular-season opener, the already shorthanded Warriors continue to battle the injury bug. Brandin Podziemski and Charles Bassey both didn’t participate in Sunday’s open practice, and both are questionable for Wednesday’s game in LA.
Bassey had his right knee wrapped in ice Sunday and is dealing with tendinitis. Podziemski has lower back soreness he sustained on the practice court ahead of open practice. Neither practiced Monday.
Kerr is considering them each day-to-day right now. The Warriors will practice Tuesday ahead of their flight to LA and conduct a shootaround Wednesday morning prior to playing the Lakers.
CLEVELAND, OHIO - OCTOBER 18: Chandler Simpson #14 of the Tampa Bay Rays celebrates hitting a double during the third inning against the Cleveland Guardians in game five of the American League Championship Series at Progressive Field on October 18, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Meet the Mets
Mets relief prospect Ryan Lambert is off to a strong start in the Arizona Fall League.
Around the National League East
Washington Nationals CFO Ted Towne is leaving the organization to become CFO of the NHL’s Pittsburgh Penguins, per a report from the Washington Business Journal. Chief Revenue Office Chris Zaber and vice president of events at Nationals Park Jonathan Stahl are also departing the Nationals’ front office.
Around Major League Baseball
The Rays defeated the Guardians 3-1 in Cleveland in Game 5 of the ALCS to go ahead in the series three games to two. Rays ace Drew Rasmussen held Cleveland to just one run on four hits in seven innings with strong defense behind him helping him out. Freddy Peralta will now take the mound for the Rays in Game 6 with a chance to help punch their ticket to the World Series.
Rays leadoff hitter Yandy Díaz, who got three hits in support of last night’s victory, certainly thinks the Rays are going to do just that. “We’re going to win tomorrow,” he said.
If the Rays do advance to the World Series, they will match up against the Brewers, guaranteeing that whoever wins will be a first-time champion. Brewers owner Mark Attanasio wants it very badly for a fanbase and a community that has been waiting a long time.
The league’s stance on the salary cap took a big hit when the Brewers swept the Dodgers in the NLCS, writes David Lennon of Newsday.
Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue
Lukas Vlahos took a look back at Brooks Raley’s 2026 season, in which he was part of a bullpen that was one of the few bright spots of the 2026 Mets, but struggled after being traded to the Phillies despite being the same pitcher, indicating a regression the Mets perhaps saw coming.
This Date in Mets History
October 19 is not a good day in Mets history. It marked the end of the line in the NLCS for both the 1999 Mets and the 2006 Mets. Even the eventual World Champion 1986 Mets lost on this date in Game 2 of the World Series.
NORTH PORT, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 20: Jurickson Profar #17 of the Atlanta Braves poses for a photo during Spring Training photo day at CoolToday Park on February 20, 2026 in North Port, Florida. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) | Getty Images
While the offseason has started for 27 of 30 MLB teams, not much news is out there as teams can only currently focus on business with players on their roster. And though he is under contract, one player the Braves will need to focus on is Jurickson Profar. As reported over the past few days, Profar will play winter ball in Venezuela in the coming months. This is important as it is the first baseball Profar will have played since before the 2026 season started. It will be interesting to see what the team decides to do with Profar before the 2027 arrives.
MLB News
The Rays were able to win in their usual small ball fashion on Sunday, and now are one win away from the World Series as they lead the Guardians 3-2 in the ALCS.
Former Mets manager Carlos Mendoza was reportedly a candidate for the Mariners managerial position. However, Mendoza joined the Phillies as their new third base coach over the weekend.
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 16: Head coach Steve Kerr of the Golden State Warriors talks to Draymond Green #23 and Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors during the first half of their preseason game against the Portland Trail Blazers at Chase Center on October 16, 2026 in San Francisco, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Five years ago, the Stephen Curry led Golden State Warriors won a fourth title together over the Boston Celtics. Steve Kerr, Draymond Green, and Curry are all still in place, and yet these Warriors are perhaps as far off as they’ve ever been from their championship winning days. Father time is undefeated, and often times the end of an era can be a bit unceremonious. The Warriors are a dying dynasty at best, or in reality, a dynasty that’d been dead for a few seasons now. As they look to what’s next, can they give the Curry era an ending that it deserves?
PHOENIX, AZ – APRIL 17: Stephen Curry #30, Draymond Green #23 and Steve Kerr of the Golden State Warriors huddle up after the game against the Phoenix Suns during the SoFi NBA Play-In Tournament on April 17, 2026 at PHX Arena in Phoenix, Arizona. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Jim Poorten/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Golden State Warriors: Over/Under 36.5 regular season wins (-110/-115)
To win Pacific Division: +430
To win Western Conference: 35/1
To win NBA Finals: 75/1
Last season: 37-45, lost in second play in game
Key additions: Yaxel Lendeborg (12th pick in Draft), Brandon Williams (Dallas)
Key losses: Jonathan Kuminga (Minnesota), Quentin Post (Memphis), Pat Spencer (Phoenix)
The Warriors have pretty clearly reached the place that no NBA franchise wants to be. They are stuck in the middle, with a clear ceiling and a floor that make you wonder exactly what the plan is here. Jimmy Butler is still working his way back from a knee injury he suffered last year, and Steph, Draymond and Al Horford aren’t getting younger. Beyond that, Kristaps Porzingis still has a mystery illness, apparently.
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – OCTOBER 10: Yaxel Lendeborg #1 of the Golden State Warriors walks on the court during the first half of the preseason game against the Sacramento Kings at Chase Center on October 10, 2026 in San Francisco, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Godofredo A. Vásquez/Getty Images) | Getty Images
When you look at the roster to try and find the next generation of guys who will try and get the Warriors back to making deep runs in the playoff, they’re banking on Yaxel Lendeborg being that guy. Of course, Lendeborg won a national title at Michigan with Dusty May, Morez Johnson Jr. and the rest of their group, so he knows how to be a part of winning basketball. I just wonder what the long term path is here. I get giving Curry all the tools he deserves to give it an earnest shot, but there is very little in the way of future assets to build around. In the immediate, the Warriors figure to be around the same as they were last year. But in the long term, there’s many reasons to be concerned about the long term viability of this franchise.
TOKYO, JAPAN - MARCH 19: Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Dodgers waves to the crowd as he exits the field after the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Chicago Cubs at Tokyo Dome on Wednesday, March 19, 2025 in Tokyo, Japan. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Waking up on a Monday morning knowing we’ll know the full World Series matchup. The Tampa Bay Rays return home up three games to two on the Cleveland Guardians, with Game 6 on Monday night at Tropicana Field. Game 1 of the World Series is Friday night in Milwaukee.
Here are a few Dodgers-related and Dodgers-adjacent stories to start your morning.
A jersey worn by Shohei Ohtani during the Dodgers’ season-opening Tokyo Series against the Chicago Cubs in 2025 was sold at auction on Saturday for just over $2 million. Larry Holder at The Athletic has more.
The Savannah Bananas last week announced their 2027 schedule, which includes a game on Saturday, April 24 at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers are scheduled that day to be on the road, facing the Washington Nationals.
Then again, with the lockout coming on December 1, the actual start of the 2027 season is still in many ways to be determined, depending on how long it takes for major league owners and players to hammer out a new collective bargaining agreement.
That uncertainty was reminded to me when reading the Dodgers’ offseason primer from Beth Harris at Associated Press, which included, “A work stoppage would give Ohtani extra time to heal, although during such time the Dodgers would be cut off from communicating with any player, leaving Ohtani to rehab either from possible surgery or from his injuries on his own.” Emphasis mine.
DENVER, COLORADO - OCTOBER 16: T.J. Hughes #13 (left) celebrates with Nazem Kadri #91 of the Colorado Avalanche after Hughes scored his first NHL goal in the second periodof the game against the Pittsburgh Penguins at Ball Arena on October 16, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Ashley Potts/NHLI via Getty Images) | NHLI via Getty Images
Three Avalanche forwards will miss upcoming two-game road trip. [Colorado Hockey Now]
The Avalanche are rolling offensively, while the Flyers just snapped their winless start—now Philadelphia gets to find out whether one win can fix all its problems. [The Hockey News]
The Colorado Avalanche Hockey Club announced today that Brett McLean has been named Assistant Coach, replacing Dave Hakstol who accepted a head coach position with the NCAA’s Arizona State University men’s hockey program. [NHL]
T.J. Hughes scores his first goal at a key moment. [Denver Post]
‘My decision’: Why Gavin McKenna was benched in Maple Leafs’ loss to Sabres. [Sportsnet]
Brady Tkachuk’s return to face Senators recalls some the NHL’s most hostile homecomings. The former Ottawa Senators captain has tried to tell anyone who will listen that Canada’s capital will always mean a lot to him. [Ottawa Citizen]
Still awaiting trade, Connor Hellebuyck could rejoin Jets when suspension end. [ESPN]
‘Like a big brother’: Austrian duo makes history with Halifax Mooseheads. [CBC]
Sunday Scramble: Will thousands of empty seats at Rogers Place get the Oilers attention? [Oilers Nation]
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