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Consistency should not lower appreciation for what the Yankees have accomplished over the last decade-plus, and there is no better time than in a late-season series against the Mets to point that out. The Mets have been throwing money at their problems for a few years now, and somehow new problems keep coming up. That advantage that benefits both of these teams only goes so far, and if we look back on their campaigns in 2026, it’s interesting to see how each team handled the absence of their top player.

Juan Soto and Aaron Judge have combined to miss 136 games this season, a total of 51 for Soto and a whopping 85 for Judge. Although each offense is unique, it is reasonable to argue that the burden of the team’s production placed on these two is relatively similar. Judge theoretically should mean as much to the Yankees’ attack as Soto means to the Mets.

Before getting into the details, the one number that actually counts leans heavily in favor of the Yankees, as they went a very respectable 46-39 without Judge on the field in 2026. Meanwhile, the Mets basically owe their status as a below-.500 club and complete irrelevance in the NL playoff picture to Soto’s absence, possessing a putrid 20-31 record without their star hitter.

Strictly speaking, in terms of pure offensive production, the gap between these two teams in 2026 is not as large as the one that their record would seem to indicate. The Mets entered play on Saturday with a 97 OPS+, slightly worse than the Yankees’ 100 mark. Accounting strictly for the time without these gigantic hitters, the Yankees had a .684 OPS without Judge, while the Mets were at .673 without Soto. Part of what has hindered the Mets’ season even further is that Francisco Lindor has also missed a healthy chunk of time, playing only 90 games to this point — although we should note that this doesn’t create an incredible disparity in the comparison between the time without Judge and Soto since there was minimal overlap in the missed time of the two Mets stars.

It’d be a neat narrative if we could come here and talk about how the Yankees’ offense dealt with missing Judge in a far superior manner than the Mets handled Soto’s absence. That isn’t necessarily the case, even with the best efforts of Ben Rice. The Yankees’ offense without Judge had to lean heavily on their pitching staff to get those wins, often scoring just barely enough to make it. Only one of these pitching staffs possesses the tools to take over and carry a team, and the numbers back that up. It’s not the full picture, but the Mets accumulated a 4.24 ERA in the 51 games Soto didn’t appear in while the Yankees had an earned run average a full run lower at 3.22 when Judge was out.

Even with Soto potentially available for all of their games, the Mets probably didn’t have enough for a meaningful fight in the National League — and the Yankees possibly could have found their way to the postseason even without Judge for a single game. The discrepancy in these two teams’ records would seem to suggest that at least for 2026, the Mets are more reliant on Soto than the Yankees are on Judge. That’s not to say they shouldn’t be happy to have number 99 back; we shouldn’t lose sight of what this team accomplished in his absence and how much worse it could’ve been. After all, just look at the Mets.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (71-71) lost 3-2 (BOX SCORE)

Hendrickson started for Sugar Land and went 7 innings allowing 3 runs, all in the third, while striking out 7 batters. The Sugar Land offense got on the board in the 5th inning on a Ferreras 2 run single. Roa tossed a scoreless 8th inning but the offense was unable to score again and Sugar Land fell 3-2.

Note: Ferreras is hitting .319 in Triple-A.

• Pascanel Ferreras, SS: 1-for-4, 2 RBI
• Joey Loperfido, LF: 2-for-4
• Zach Cole, RF: 1-for-4, 2B
• Ray Delgado, 2B: 0-for-3, R, BB

• Josh Hendrickson, LHP: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 7 K
• Christian Roa, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 3 K

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (62-75) lost 6-1 (BOX SCORE)

Hicks got the start for the Hooks and went 4.2 innings but struggled allowing 6 runs on 9 hits. The Hooks offense got on the board in the 5th inning on a Bush solo home run. The bullpen tossed 3.1 scoreless innings but the offense was quiet the rest of the way as the Hooks fell 6-1.

Note: Bush has 13 home runs this season.

• Hector Salas, 2B: 1-for-3, BB
• Will Bush, C: 1-for-2, R, HR, RBI, BB

• James Hicks, RHP: 4.2 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
• Alejandro Torres, RHP: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• Max Martin, RHP: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, o ER, 0 BB, 1 K

A+: Asheville Tourists (43-87) SEASON OVER

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (2-0) OFF

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: TBD – 2:05 CT

CC: Trey Dombroski – 1:00 CT

AV: SEASON OVER

FV: TBD – 4:05 CT

When you’re far back in the standings and looking to next year, the last few weeks of the season can be an audition of sorts. The Royals have brought in a number of different pitchers in the last two months, finding success with guys like Randy Dobnak, Nate Pearson, Craig Kimbrel, and Anthony Gose. On Saturday, they added to their tryouts by announcing they have claimed pitcher Spencer Bivens off waivers from the Giants, and had optioned him to Triple-A Omaha.

The 32-year-old right-hander has spent parts of the last three seasons with the Giants. He has made 85 appearances, all in relief, with a 4.08 ERA. He has a low strikeout rate of just 7.1 per-nine-innings in his career, with a decent walk rate of 2.7. He spent most of this year in the minors, with a 4.92 ERA in 75 innings at Triple-A, making just four appearances with the Giants where he gave up ten runs in five innings.

Bivens had a long road to get to the big leagues. He grew up in State College, Pennsylvania, and after a stint at Louisburg College, he transferred to Penn State. He was kicked off the team for failing a drug test however, and ended up at Rogers State. He played in several independent leagues after college, including some time in France. In 2022, he signed with the Giants and made his MLB debut in 2024. In 2025, he made the Opening Day roster and pitched in 54 games with the team, posting a 4.00 ERA. The team designated him for assignment last week to claim pitcher Duncan Davitt off waivers from the Braves.

Bivens is a sinker/slider pitcher with a 52.8 percent groundball rate last year. In 2025, he tied for the 12th-most multi-inning relief appearances in baseball with 26.

Bivens takes up the last open spot on the 40-man roster, so no other move is necessary. He has one more option year after 2026.

Good Sunday morning, Purple Row!

In the final game of a road trip that can only be described as “disastrous,” today, the Colorado Rockies (55-93) will look to take the final game of a three-game stand against the Detroit Tigers (69-79).

Colorado has gone 25-52 on the road this season, the worst road record in the Majors. The Rockies have lost six straight games, one shy of their longest losing streak of the season (Aug. 17-24).

In addition,  Colorado is in the midst of a 13-day stretch without an off-day, going 0-5 in the stretch so far. The Rockies need to go 8-6 in the remaining 14 games to avoid their fourth consecutive 100-loss season.

But to the game at hand.

Starting for the Rockies is Gabriel Hughes. This will be his 13th start for the Rockies in 2026.

The righty has a 5.81 ERA in 57.1 IP. He’s struck out 48, walked 21, and given up five home runs. Hughes has a 1.38 WHIP. Notably, Hughes is still in the hunt for his first MLB win.

Taking the mound for the Tigers will be RHP Jackson Jobe.

Currently, he has an ERA of 4.45 in 28.1 IP. He’s struck out 26 while giving up 12 walks and five home runs with a 1.41 WHIP.

And now to the details.

First Pitch: 10:10 pm AM (You read that correctly.)

TV: Rockies TV

Radio: KOA 850 AM/94.1 FM; KNRV 1150 (Spanish)

Tigers SB Nation: Bless You Boys

Lineups:

For the visiting Rockies:

And the home Tigers:

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

It’s been a good season for Aaron Nola. Especially in the second half, he’s looked solid and reliable; a comforting return to form, like a rerun of a favorite TV show. There is one thing that’s still plagued him, though, a thorn that he can’t quite pull out of his paw: the homers. The home run has seemed like an almost ubiquitous part of the Nola start. His 34 gopher balls surrendered are the most league-wide, tied with Jeffrey Springs, and one ahead of Shota Imanaga. The homer problem (the downtowner dilemma, the tater trouble, the four-bagger fretting), has gone on for far too long to be dismissed as happenstance. It is, unfortunately, as real as the Phanatic’s green fur. Case in point: I drafted this article on Friday afternoon, just prior to Nola’s start, hoping I wouldn’t have to rewrite any of it; it is now Saturday evening and I am rewriting it to account for the two homers he surrendered. That being said, what if he’s been at least a little unlucky?

Nola has allowed 34 homers this season, but per Statcast’s numbers, his expected number of homers allowed is 27.3 (that’s with the adjusted model, which accounts for environmental variables, and which we’ll use elsewhere in this article; it’s 30.4 if you’re accounting for trajectory only). That puts him at 6.7 homers above expected in 2026, second-most league-wide. Even if his actual homer total was identical to the expected, he’d still be one of the most-homer prone pitchers in baseball this season; he’d just rank fourth instead of first. Still, that might suggest that the homer problem isn’t quite as bad as it’s seemed in 2026.

Then again, if you look at the one pitcher who has a a greater gap between his actual homers surrendered and expected homers surrendered, it’s Springs, who’s allowed the same number of actual homers as Nola. And the pitcher who’s got the third-biggest gap in that regard is Imanaga. That stands to reason: the more prone you are to surrendering the sort of long ball that can become a homer, the more prone you’ll be to surrendering the sort of borderline ball that might become a homer and might not become one, with the vagaries of ballpark design and environment determining its fate. So while we can say that Nola’s been a little unlucky, homer-wise, I don’t think it’d be quite right to suggest that the gap between his expected and actual homer stats is purely or even primarily the result of misfortune. He really does have a genuine homer issue.

(It’s perhaps worth noting here that of all the pitchers who have allowed at least 20 dingers this season, Nola has the lowest percentage, 2o.6, of what Statcast refers to as No Doubters— homers that would be homers no matter which ballpark they’re born in. Compare to Imanaga’s 29.4%, or Springs’ 42.4%. I’m not convinced that it’s a terribly meaningful fact, but I do find it curious).

That being said, there is one way in which Nola is arguably unlucky: he plays half his games at the third homer-happiest park in baseball, per Park Factors, and the one most prone to allowing homers to the lefties who already have the platoon advantage over him. It’s not just the dimensions of CBP, either: per Statcast, Citizens Bank Park ranks ninth among MLB ballparks for extra distance added to balls by the effects of the weather, environment, etc.

I say this is arguably unlucky because this wasn’t really luck; he chose to resign with the team that calls Citizens Bank Park home. Then again, I suppose you could argue that luck was involved given that he had no say in where he was drafted, which eventually set up the sequence of events that led to him choosing to resign with the incumbent club. But that’s getting awfully philosophical. Speaking of philosophical, let’s imagine some hypotheticals.

Imagine an alternate world in which Nola pitches every one of his starts in Boston (perhaps a dystopian future in which only Boston remains, perhaps a world in which some sort of New England envy results in every ballclub directly copying the dimensions and environment of famed Fenway, it doesn’t matter). That hypothetical Boston Nola would have allowed only 15 homers this year. Now imagine if only Philadelphia existed. Most people, we can all agree, would be happier in such a world. But Aaron Nola would not: he’d have allowed 35 homers in this alternate All-Philly 2026, one more than he actually has. And that is the only park that would produce such an effect: place all his starts in any other ballpark, and he allows fewer gopher balls than the real Nola has. Citizens Bank Park is a wonderful place for everyone, except for Braves fans, Mets fans, and homer-prone pitchers.

As an example: take this homer Jake Burger hit against Nola in his first start of the season:

That’s obviously an unlucky break for Nola: just a few inches to the left and it would be foul, with no harm done other than some induced heartburn. But it’s even more unlucky than it appears: if it had been hit in any other ballpark in baseball, it wouldn’t have been a home run (although that’s by Statcast’s environment-adjusted model; per the trajectory-only model it would’ve been a dinger in 17 of 30 parks).

And this one, hit by Francisco Alvarez back in July, was even more unlucky for Nola.

It barely cleared the wall at CBP, and it wouldn’t have been gone at any other park. Even if we use the trajectory-only model, it still would’ve been gone in only two other parks.

But the most unlucky homer of all was probably this one, hit by Luke Keaschall at the Field of Dreams game:

If that game was played at any standard big league ballpark, that ball stays in the yard rather than finding a happy home in the corn.

Any pitcher in the league, of course, has similar stories, of homers that would’ve ended as harmless fly balls if the location had been different, or if it had been a few degrees cooler, or if the wind hadn’t been blowing in quite that direction. Betteridge’s Law of Headlines applies here: Nola’s homer problem isn’t the result of bad luck. Misfortune may have resulted in it looking slightly worse than it really is, but the underlying problem is real. But so is Nola’s return to form this season, and what he’s done for the 2026 Phils. We ought to feel lucky to have him.

We all know that Cade Cavalli is a top of the rotation arm who offers Nats fans a glimpse of what quality pitching looks like. However, there is another arm that is emerging behind him that is doing that as well. Andrew Alvarez is not Cade Cavalli, but he has been rock solid and is only getting better as the season goes along.

Yesterday, Alvarez had the best start of his career and made a statement that he should be in the rotation next year. The 27 year old lefty threw 7 scoreless innings, allowing 1 hit while striking out 8 and walking 4. It was the first time he completed 7 innings in his MLB career and a continuation of the great work he has done lately.

Honestly, we saw everything that makes Alvarez an effective pitcher. Against an all right-handed lineup, Alvarez’s curveball was superb. He got 10 whiffs on 20 swings with his curve and when batters did make contact, it was not very hard. The curveball was the signature piece of his arsenal, but showed his fastball enough to keep hitters honest.

There were times where he was nibbling too much early in the game. In fact, all four of his walks came in the first two innings. However, the southpaw settled in and started dominating the Halos lineup. He is proving that he belongs in the rotation moving forward.

Alvarez was not a hyped prospect at all, which makes his success even more remarkable. Across 102 innings this season, Alvarez has a 3.35 ERA with 99 strikeouts. He has also racked up 2.3 fWAR and 2.4 bWAR. Both of those numbers are actually better than Jake Bennett, who the Nats infamously traded away last offseason. Alvarez has not gotten the hype that Bennett has but he has arguably been more effective.

Like Cavalli, we are also seeing Alvarez improve down the stretch. Since the start of August, Alvarez has a 2.44 ERA in 44.1 innings across 8 starts. For me, the most encouraging part is the innings total. In this stretch, he is averaging over 5.5 innings per start. A big concern with Alvarez is that he does not go deep into games, but he is answering those questions.

Moving forward, what should we expect from Alvarez? Well, the advanced stats are somewhat split on the lefty. His FIP is actually lower than his ERA at 3.27. However, his xERA of 4.16 is slightly less encouraging. His xFIP sits somewhere in the middle at 3.80. 

If Alvarez can settle in as a back of the rotation arm who has an ERA somewhere in the high 3’s, that would be a big organizational win. With the quality of his breaking balls, there is certainly a path to doing that.

The walks are the one thing I am concerned about though. Alvarez really emphasizes avoiding the middle of the plate. However, that can lead to nibbling. His 11% walk rate is proof of that. While this approach does lead to walks, it does help him keep the ball in the yard. Alvarez has allowed just 5 homers in 102 innings, which is very low.

We will have to see if he can sustain this level of home run avoidance over a larger sample, but he does things that suggest he can somewhat maintain this. His ground ball rate of 49.3% is in the 83rd percentile and his 5.4% barrel rate allowed is in the 84th percentile. Keeping the ball on the ground and off the barrel leads to fewer homers.

With how he has pitched, I think Andrew Alvarez has locked up a rotation spot. We still have to see if he can keep it long term, but he will be one of the team’s 5 best options next year. He is just too crafty and too effective.

Guys like Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker make me slightly hesitant to go all-in on Alvarez, but you have to love what you are seeing. To be fair to Alvarez, Irvin and Parker never had seasons quite like this either. 

I do not think Alvarez has the fastball quality to be in the front 3 of a rotation. However, you can do a lot worse than him in the back of a rotation. His breaking balls are so sharp and he keeps the ball in the yard. He can give you 5 solid innings on a consistent basis, and lately he is showing that he can go further than that as well.

It has not been a pretty year for Nats pitching, but we have found a couple answers in the rotation. Cade Cavalli looks like a top of the rotation starter and Andrew Alvarez is now emerging as a number 4. I have always had some lingering doubts about Alvarez, but he just keeps proving me wrong. 

Mike Rizzo, the man who built the Washington Nationals into a power and led them to the 2019 World Series championship, recently had a formal interview with the Athletics for their vacant GM position.

The Athletics, who have also interviewed assistant GM Billy Owens, and have identified James Click, vice president of baseball strategy with the Toronto Blue Jays as a strong candidate, would like to make their hire before the season’s conclusion.

Rizzo, who lives in West Palm Beach, Fla., also has strong interest in the Houston Astros’ GM vacancy, but the Astros aren’t expected to begin their interview process until after their season concludes.

The Athletics also made wholesale firings on their minor-league development staff.

There have been rumblings in the industry about manager Mark Kotsay’s future, but he has a contract through 2028 and is considered safe.

The club is relocating to Las Vegas for the 2028 season, currently playing the second of three years in a minor-league ballpark in West Sacramento, California.

The Mariners traded for one of the league’s streakiest player, and then he took a big slump.

I wrote about Randy Arozarena a few months ago. I’d often referred to him as a streaky hitter and wanted to know how much to hedge against his red-hot start to 2026. I crunched some numbers and found out Randy isn’t actually that streaky. Yes, sometimes he gets super hot, but he rarely gets that cold, because Randy is simply one of the 10 best hitters ever to play in Seattle. And hey, what do you know, Randy never slumped in 2026, and delivered his best-ever season.

While doing that analysis, I came across some very streaky batters. The streakiest just so happened to be Taylor Ward. I didn’t think anything of it at the time because Ward was hardly relevant in Seattle (beyond his modest performance in Anaheim for years). That’s obviously changed. Ward joined the Mariners as one of the best batters moved at the trade deadline, and has since posted a 20 wRC+ and -0.8 fWAR. He’s behind only Rob Refsnyder, Leody Tavares, and Kolten Wong as the worst Mariners of the decade by WAR.

The method I used to define streakiness back then was fairly simple. I found every batter’s rolling wOBA over 100 plate appearances dating back to 2021, then found the standard deviation (and coefficient of variation) of those rolls. Basically, this identified batters with the largest changes in performance over this stretch.

I figured I’d try something more nuanced this time around using a process known as permutation sampling. I shuffled each batter’s plate appearances into a random order, found the rolling wOBA from that order, and took the standard deviation of that roll. I did this 200 times for each batter. I then compared the average of the 200 samples to the batter’s actual, chronological sample. Batters whose actual performance goes up and down more than a random sample could thus be considered streaky.

Here I found Ward to be the fifth streakiest player overall since 2021. The names in front of him are Michael Harris II, Aaron Judge, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and CJ Abrams; the names behind him are Justin Turner, Steven Kwan, Trea Turner, Josh Rojas, and Mookie Betts. It seems being streaky (by this measure) isn’t inherently good or bad, as there’s a nice mix of Hall of Famers, All-Stars, fringe Major Leaguers, and even TOOMGIS himself.

Still, we can say that Ward has been streakier than most batters this decade. The Mariners just so happened to pull the trigger on acquiring him right before he experienced his one of his annual plummets: 

Ward was a slugger for a long time. He hit 36 homers in 2025 for Anaheim, but his approach wasn’t very good. He posted a mere 118 wRC+ despite all the power. Ward joined the Orioles in 2026 and made drastic changes to that approach. He started drawing walks (17.2% through July), but that came at the expense of power (seven home runs). He wound up with a nearly identical 117 wRC+ in Baltimore.

Then he was traded to the Mariners. Ward hasn’t changed too much from Baltimore to Seattle. He just hasn’t been as good at whatever it is he’s trying to do. He’s now swinging out of the zone quite a bit more, leading to fewer walks and worse contact. That seems to hold up, as Ward’s walk rate has dropped back to career norms, but the power he sacrificed for those walks hasn’t returned.

I don’t know that I have a ton else here. I just thought this was neat. I think the point is this isn’t that weird a stretch for Ward, even if it’s a bit extreme. Were the Mariners wrong to make the deal? Eh, I don’t know. I mean, obviously it’s been a tremendous failure. But Ward’s streakiness could have gone in the other direction, too. There’s some timeline where he came to Seattle and hit like a top five batter in the majors for two months — he’s done that several times before. It’s also hard to lose a deal when the price is a few middling relievers. Still, the Mariners technically would have been better off giving up those relievers for Piggy Ward, an Orioles right fielder who’s been dead for more than 100 years.

Good morning, folks…

The Texas Rangers beat the Arizona Diamondbacks last night by a score of 6-2.

Josh Jung and Nathan Eovaldi were each activated prior to the game.

Joc Pederson and Nicky Lopez are each being evaluated after leaving last night’s game due to a hit by pitch and hamstring issue, respectively.

X-Rays on Pederson’s hand were negative.

Evan Grant writes that Evan Carter’s offensive struggles resulted in him sitting yesterday.

David Laurila has his Sunday Notes column up at Fangraphs.

Saturday saw two strong outings by the starting pitchers in the Atlanta Braves organization. Both Cedric De Grandpre and Luke Sinnard threw excellent outings, though both came up short as the offense wasn’t able to support either. Combined Sinnard and Cedric struck out 15 in nine and a third innings of work.

Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp 2, Gwinnett Stripers 0

Box Score

Statcast

• David McCabe, 1B:2-4, 2B, .309/.354/.559
• Cedric De Grandpre, SP: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 8 K, 4.03 ERA
• Luis Vargas, RP: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 1 K, 4.15 ERA

A pitchers duel took place on Saturday night in the form of a 2-0 game. Cedric De Grandpre pitched five exceptional innings, with just two mistakes coming via a pair of solo homers. In total he allowed those two runs on four hits and a walk with eight strikeouts and 13 whiffs. After a scoreless inning from Ricky Vanasco, Luis Vargas went two scoreless innings to finish the game off. In total Gwinnett pitchers allowed two runs on four hits and four walks with 10 strikeouts.

The pitchers duel went both ways as the Stripers were shut out and held to four hits and one walk. David McCabe, who singled and doubled, had half of the hits for the team, while Luke Williams and Chuckie Robinson had the other two Stripers singles. The lone walk came by Jordan Groshans. Jim Jarvis and Lizandro Espinoza were both hitless on the day.

Montgomery Biscuits 5, Columbus Clingstones 4

Box Score

• John Gil, 2B: 1-5, RBI, .317/.389/.432
• Eric Hartman, LF: 1-5, RBI, .188/.320/.273
• Luke Sinnard, SP: 4.1 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 0 BB, 7 K, 4.15 ERA

Luke Sinnard had a very strong outing on Saturday, going four and a third and allowing four runs on eight hits and no walks. He did strike out seven and whiff 15 as well. He had seven strikeouts on just 35 pitches through three scoreless innings before allowing two runs apiece in the fourth and then again in the fifth before recording just one out there. In total he threw 59 pitches and had those 15 whiffs. Ian Mejia went the next two and two thirds scoreless, followed by two more from Owen Hackman, before Isaac Gallegos allowed the final Montgomery run in his one third of an inning.

The Columbus offense didn’t manage much in this game, though a two-run homer by Carson Taylor helped to get this game into extra innings. Still the team managed just six hits, half by the bottom of the order with Luke Waddell picking up a pair of singles. Eric Hartman and John Gil each went one for five with a run batted in, while Alex Lodise also went one for five and stole a base.