FORT MYERS, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 15: Jarren Duran #16 and Roman Anthony #19 of the Boston Red Sox run during the first full squad workout at JetBlue Park at Fenway South on February 15, 2026 in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The 2026 Major League Baseball season will reportedly begin tomorrow, March 25th, when the San Francisco Giants take on the New York Yankees in the hallowed grounds of the Bronx. (We all know the season doesn’t really begin until the next day when the Cincinnati Reds play host to the Boston Red Sox at Great American Ball Park, but we’ll let that slide for the time being.)
That means we’re about to engage upon six-plus months of some serious baseball, and we’re going to see plenty of remarkable things along the way. Some will be predictable – Jose Ramirez, per usual – and some will come completely out of nowhere. There will be amazing plays, incredible streaks, and plenty of dumbness for all to enjoy.
With the looming 162 game grind in mind, here are Five Dumb Predictions for the 2026 MLB season.
Shohei Ohtani wins the NL Cy Young Award
It’s going to happen, right?
The greatest baseball talent the world has ever seen has done pretty much every single thing ever already, and the rewards for such prowess have stacked up, too. He’s been a Rookie of the Year. He’s been named MVP four times (including in both leagues). He’s been an All Star five times, a World Series winner twice, the NLCS MVP. He’s led the league in homers (twice), triples once, arby-eyes once, and even swiped 59 bags in a single season (while only being thrown out four times).
He’s done it all offensively, enough to make his 16.1 career bWAR from the mound seem almost an afterthought. Perhaps that’s because so much of what he’s done offensively came as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, something that sounds as ridiculous as it is. All he’s done on the mound lately is pitch to an absurd 6.89 K/BB, 2.87 ERA, and 1.90 FIP in 47.0 IP in 2025 after not pitching at all in 2024, but you don’t have to go too far back to see his 4th place finish in the 2022 AL Cy Young Award, either.
I think the Los Angeles Dodgers superstar is going to look around and realize that his club needs him this year, more than ever, as their ace, and in typical Ohtani fashion I think he rises to that occasion. Yeah, he’s still going to hit the crap out of the ball, but maybe he just won’t run and slide so much. On the bump, though, I see a return to a more full season of work, and topping 150 IP with scintillating peripherals will win him the award that will truly cement his legacy as the greatest overall player of all time.
Ronald Acuña wins his 2nd NL MVP
Acuña’s 2023 win of the award came as he led all of Major League Baseball in hits (217), steals (73), OBP (.416), and total bases (383), the superstar ripping off an absurd .337/.416/.596 line in 159 games. He swatted 41 homers to fabricate the 40/70 club, but a torn ACL set him back significantly the very next year.
In 2025, we saw the Acuña at the plate we’re accustomed to seeing, as he hit .290/.417/.518 when healthy, though he didn’t stay perfectly healthy all year (and barely ran when he did). In 2026, though, I think we get the full package back once again, and that’s going to be electric enough for him to claim this award for the second time.
It may seem like he’s been around forever already, but he just turned 28 years old in December. He’s almost two weeks younger than Spencer Steer, for reference. Yeah, there’s an infinite amount left in his tank, and he’s going to show it again in 2026.
Wyatt Langford leads the AL in dingers
Texas Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford is going to finish the 2026 season with more dingers than anyone else in the American League. Not Aaron Judge, not Cal Raleigh, Wyatt Langford – the 24 year old with 38 career homers under his belt.
Big time breakout year for this guy incoming. I’m going to say he ends up with 46, and that does the trick.
Buy, buy, buy while you can!
5+ WAR season, 35+ homers for Seattle’s Randy Arozarena
Contract years are incredible catalysts in a sport that hands out quarter-billion dollar contracts like hotcakes. So, when a player who’s shown consistent ability to be among the league’s elite at multiple skills reaches one, it’s hard not to think there’s going to be an effort to align the stars into a career year.
That’s not to imply that Arozarena has done anything other than give his absolute best throughout his rock solid career to-date. It’s just an acknowledgement that players, particularly when they reach their age-31 season at the very same time, surely know when they’ve got a platform year in front of them (see: Kyle Schwarber last year).
Randy’s got a chance to jump to the top of the free agent class with a year like that in 2026, and I think he will rise to the occasion because of it. He’ll top the 27 dingers that sits as his career high to date (established just last season), and another 30+ steal season with perhaps some better defense would vault him firmly into 5+ WAR territory.
I think he does it!
The Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series
Reds fans are going to get the first taste of just how filthy Garrett Crochet is going to be this season when he takes the mound in GABP on Thursday for Opening Day. Boston’s resident ace is poised to show his first season in Boston – a brilliant one in 2025 after coming over from the White Sox – was just the tip of the iceberg, and I think he leads a revamped pitching staff to the upper echelon of the league.
With the bats, though, it’s Roman Anthony who takes a giant step forward in 2026, and I think the Willson Contreras addition has gone completely under the radar – he’s going to beat the crap out of the green monster all year long. It’s a lineup that’s deep and versatile, and I think it’s on the cusp of taking completely off.
Not to mention that it just seems very Red Socky for them to jump up and seize a title in a year where the Dodgers and Yankees sit atop most every projection system – that’s just their style.
Jun 1, 2025; Oxford, MS, USA; Mississippi Rebels catcher Austin Fawley (24) hits a home run during the second inning against the Murray State Racers. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
After a 3-1 record last week and a series win over Kentucky, Ole Miss hopped back into the nation’s top 25 just in time for a road trip to Memphis in the midweek.
The No. 18 Rebels (19-6, 3-3 SEC) will faceoff with the Tigers (6-16, 1-2 AAC) at FedEx Park with a first pitch set for 6 p.m. CT. Ole Miss defeated Memphis a few weeks ago in Oxford in a 7-1 final.
Things did not get easier for the Tigers after that loss with the program piling up losses in non-conference and conference play this season. The Rebels meanwhile have been surging of late and need to get past the Tigers tonight to focus in on the massive in-state series with Mississippi State in Oxford this weekend.
PROJECTED PITCHING MATCHUP
Ole Miss: RHP Owen Kelly (1-0, 3.68 ERA)
Memphis: LHP Logan Rushing (0-1, 7.71 ERA)
Owen Kelly will start on the mound for Ole Miss after a nice outing last week against Austin Peay where he went 2 IP with no earned runs. Kelly pitched against Memphis in the aforementioned game going 4 IP with one earned run and five strikeouts in his longest outing of the year.
Memphis will counter with lefty senior Logan Rushing whose last outing was against Eastern Illinois going 1.1 IP with no earned runs in a loss. Rushing has not had an appearance longer than two innings this season or topped 50 pitches in action.
The Rebels on paper should win this game every time, but anyone who knows this rivalry knows the Memphis squad is made up of local travel ball players who know plenty about the Ole Miss lineup and its tendencies. The 7-1 final from a few weeks back will either serve as a chip on their shoulder or a nightmare it can’t awake from when the first pitch flies at 6 p.m. tonight.
The game will be livestream on ESPN+ and the ESPN app.
HOUSTON, TX - MARCH 21: Kevin Durant #7 of the Houston Rockets shoots a three point basket during the game to pass Michael Jordan for 5th on the NBA All-Time scoring list during the game against the Miami Heat on March 21, 2026 at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Logan Riely/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Taking care of business against the Utah Jazz and Sacramento Kings has given the Sixers a shot at new life. It may not be likely that they’re able to climb out of the Play-In tournament in the Eastern Conference, but it’s a lot more possible than it was a week ago.
It’s good to have something to root for other than draft positioning this time of year. The Houston Rockets managed to have a week that helped both the first-round pick they owe the Sixers, as well as Philly’s standings in the Eastern Conference.
Houston had another middling week with two wins sandwiched in between two losses. Crucially, those two were against the Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat, two teams bunched right up with the Sixers in the standings. That’s kept Philly just a game out of the sixth seed.
After knocking off those two opponents, the Rockets surprisingly dropped a game to the tanking Chicago Bulls, dropping their pick all the way down to 21 in the process. That area remains as close as ever — the Rockets are just a half game up on the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves for that 21st spot.
The Rockets will see those Wolves in a nationally televised bout for their next contest. Their week gets easier after that though as they’ll head to Memphis to take on the Grizzlies.
There are still plenty of draft prospects to watch as the NCAA Tournament progresses to the Sweet-16 and Elite-8. Alabama and Houston are still alive with multiple guys that have gone to the Sixers in different mock drafts.
Michigan’s center Aday Mara put up 19 and 16 points in his first two games of the tournament, respectively. Wolverines forward Morez Johnson Jr. put up 21 and 15.
Iowa State is still rolling as well, although there hasn’t really been a chance to get a look at Joshua Jefferson in the tournament. Jefferson hurt his ankle early in the round of 64 and missed the next round. The team is hopeful he can return for the tournament, but that is very much up in the air.
Feb 19, 2026; Port St. Lucie, FL, USA; New York Mets pitcher Luke Weaver (30) poses for a photo during media day at Clover Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Outside of Edwin Díaz, the Mets’ bullpen proved to be volatile last year. While a number of factors contributed to that reality, one of David Stearns’ goals this offseason was to strengthen the relief corps. He started that process when he signed closer Devin Williams to a three-year deal, but he followed that up a few weeks later when he signed Luke Weaver—the former setup man to Williams with the Yankees—to a two-year deal. Weaver also stepped into the closer’s role on occasion last year and picked up eight saves along the way.
Unfortunately for the righty, it was a tale of two seasons in 2025. He was dominant until a hamstring injury sidelined him in June. Before the injury he had a sparkling 1.05 ERA in 25.2 innings, which was the lowest on the team. All eight of his saves came during that time period, as Williams was struggling at the time.
Once Weaver returned in late June he wasn’t the same pitcher as the beginning of the season. His ERA after his return ballooned to 5.31 in 39 innings pitched. He blew three saves in that time, whereas he had blown just one before that. All told, he went 4-4 with a 3.62 ERA in 2025. The Mets are hoping that they’re getting the dominant Weaver from the first half.
Should they stay healthy ,the duo of Weaver and Williams should form a formidable one to close out games. It didn;t quite work out with the Yankees since they both struggled at different times during the season, but they both have the opportunity to redeem themselves with their new organization.
With injuries and under-performance in the Mets’ bullpen last season, it was an adventure getting to Díaz to close out games. The team now has a true setup man in Weaver, which should bring better stability to that part of games this year.
George "Rube" Foster, Carl Mays, Ernie Shore, George Herman "Babe" Ruth, Hubert Benjamin "Dutch" Leonard, full-length Portrait in Boston Red Sox Baseball Uniforms, Underwood & Underwood, 1915. (Photo by: Universal History Archive/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)
Baseball history is full of great players. It is also full of players whose stories become intertwined with legends so large that they never quite stand on their own.
Ernie Shore just happens to be one of those players.
The former Yankee celebrates his birthday today, and while his career deserves recognition on its own, it is nearly impossible to tell his story without telling it alongside the one and only Babe Ruth. At almost every turn of Shore’s baseball life, Ruth was there.
Ernest Grady Shore Born: March 24, 1891 (East Bend, NC) Died: September 24, 1980 (Winston-Salem, NC) Yankees Tenure: 1919-20
Shore’s journey to the major leagues began far from the spotlight that would eventually follow him. Born in North Carolina in 1891, he developed a country-strong frame on his family’s farm and an arm that caught the attention of professional scouts early. He graduated from Guilford College in 1914 and even returned during the offseason to serve as a math professor, but his professional path had already begun to take shape before that.
In 1912, the New York Giants brought Shore in on trial, a reminder of just how different the game looked at the time. Shore made his professional debut on June 20 as a reliever, but when the Giants attempted to option him, he refused and returned to college. He was later required to pay a fine to be reinstated before continuing his professional career.
Like many players of his era, his path back to the majors ran through the minor leagues, where he refined his command and established himself as a dependable arm rather than a headline-grabbing prospect. That reliability made him valuable. By the time he reached the Baltimore Orioles of the International League, Shore had developed into one of the more promising pitchers in high-level minor league baseball. Baltimore was one of the premier pipelines to the majors, and it just so happened that another young player was coming through that same system.
George Herman Ruth.
In 1914, both Shore and Ruth were part of the deal that sent them from a financially struggling Baltimore franchise to the Boston Red Sox. It was the first time their careers crossed, and it would not be the last. The two even roomed together early in their Boston days, until Shore reportedly requested a different roommate due to their vastly different lifestyles and habits.
In Boston, Shore quickly proved he belonged. While Ruth was still being used primarily as a pitcher, Shore emerged as one of the most reliable arms on a loaded Red Sox staff. From 1914 through 1917, he compiled a 58–33 record with a 2.12 ERA and played a key role in helping Boston capture World Series titles in 1915 and 1916. He was not flashy, but he was effective, the kind of pitcher teams relied on to win games consistently.
Ruth, meanwhile, was becoming something else entirely. Even then, the contrast was clear. Shore was steady and dependable. Ruth was becoming a phenomenon. Much like their personalities, they were two very different types of players.
That contrast reached its peak on June 23, 1917, in one of the strangest and most famous games in baseball history. Ruth started that day and immediately walked the first batter. What followed felt more like chaos than competition. After arguing the strike zone, Ruth was ejected and, in a moment that only adds to the legend, reportedly punched the umpire on his way out.
Shore entered the game in relief, despite having pitched just a few days earlier. The runner Ruth had allowed on base was caught stealing, and from that moment on, Shore was perfect. He retired the next 26 batters in order, recording 27 consecutive outs without allowing another baserunner.
For years, the game was considered a perfect game. Today, it is officially recognized as the first combined no-hitter in Major League Baseball history, credited to both Ruth and Shore, further cementing their connection in baseball history.
But that designation has always felt a little incomplete. Shore did everything a pitcher could possibly do. He faced 26 batters and retired all 26. His performance alone met every standard of perfection. The only thing separating him from a perfect game was the fact that Babe Ruth had already walked a batter.
In a single afternoon, Shore’s greatest achievement became inseparable from Ruth’s most chaotic moment. That was not a one-time occurrence. It was the pattern of his career.
Shore continued to pitch effectively for Boston, but his career was soon interrupted by military service during World War I. He missed the 1918 season, and when he returned, he was not quite the same pitcher. The timing was significant. As Shore worked his way back, Ruth was transforming into the most dominant offensive player the game had ever seen.
Once again, their paths crossed. Shore was eventually traded to the Yankees, reuniting him with Ruth in New York just as Ruth’s legend was exploding. This time, however, they were no longer peers on parallel tracks. Ruth was becoming the face of baseball. Shore was nearing the end of his career.
He appeared in parts of the 1919 and 1920 seasons with the Yankees, contributing as a veteran arm on a roster that was beginning to take shape around Ruth’s larger-than-life presence. Even in New York, their connection extended beyond the field.
One story that has followed Shore through history involves an incident during a Yankees exhibition game, when Ruth went into the stands to confront a heckler. Accounts vary, as they often do with stories involving Ruth, but the situation reportedly escalated to the point where the fan pulled a knife. Shore was among those who intervened, helping to defuse the situation and potentially prevent serious harm. For Shore, it was just another instance of helping the hot-headed Ruth out of a jam.
In a career filled with moments tied to Ruth, even that story fits. On the field, Shore once followed Ruth and delivered perfection. Off the field, he may have helped protect him.
Shore’s major league career came to an end shortly thereafter, finishing with a 65–43 record and a 2.47 ERA across seven seasons. Those numbers reflect a pitcher who was far more than a footnote. He was a key contributor to championship teams, a reliable starter, and a player capable of one of the most remarkable pitching performances the game has ever seen.
After baseball, Shore returned to North Carolina, where he lived a far different kind of life. He served as a sheriff for many years, becoming a respected figure in his community. In contrast to Ruth’s life of fame and spectacle, Shore’s post-baseball years were defined by stability, service, and a quieter form of impact.
It is a fitting contrast. Because while Babe Ruth became one of the most famous athletes in history, Ernie Shore remained something else entirely: a great pitcher whose legacy is forever intertwined with the biggest name the game has ever known.
Some players are remembered for what they did. Others are remembered for who they did it alongside. Ernie Shore will always be both.
Happy birthday, Ernie.
See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - JUNE 14: George Kirby #68, Logan Gilbert #36, Bryce Miller #50 and Bryan Woo #22 of the Seattle Mariners interact with the Seattle Mariners mascot "Moose" before the game against the Texas Rangers at T-Mobile Park on June 14, 2024 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The next step in profiling Seattle’s shot at defending their AL West throne, and a potential American League pennant bid, comes on the other side of the ball. Seattle’s pitching staff has the easiest task in the sport, in the sense that their hitters face the toughest task. T-Mobile Park, with its predictable dimensions, chilly climate, and SABR-worthy peculiarities in eye of the batting beholder, is a welcoming place for hurlers. But make no mistake, this projects as a worthy group in their own right, as Seattle is joined by only the Dodgers and Blue Jays to have both hitters and pitchers projected in the top-7 of the sport by FanGraphs wins above replacement.
Anchors (complimentary) of the 2021-2024 Seattle Mariners, in 2025 the starting rotation was at times an anchor (derogatory) to the club’s efforts. While a 3.97/4.02/4.03 ERA/FIP/xERA is no great catastrophe as a starting staff, plenty of the club’s numbers fell short of the standard set by this group. A drop of over 60 innings pitched was most damning, with all but Luis Castillo missing time with injury at one point or another among the top five arms from 2024. Bryce Miller will almost certainly open the season on the injured list, and Logan Evans is sidelined with Tommy John to chip into the depth further.
I’ll skip the panic brake pumping and slam the pedal down here, however. Seattle’s rotation is a huge strength, and is poised for a better showing than a season ago to pair with the improved lineup. Bryan Woo’s breakout was a blessing for the M’s, not only for his excellence but an astounding rate of efficiency. The buttery righty is poised to glide through bats once more in his age 26 campaign, even if he’ll likely face a bit more batted ball fortune on occasion than his lifetime .246 BABIP to this point in nearly 400 innings… right? While George Kirby sought to diversify his targets somewhat, Woo relentlessly pounded the zone at a rate surpassing his famously walk-thrifty teammate. Kirby’s biggest question mark is largely superficial: what impact does his lower arm slot have? The righty seems intent on working the edges more, forcing hitters into disadvantageous swings instead of relentlessly pounding the zone. This is a pathway to more strikeouts and, hopefully, better performance away from T-Mobile Park for Kirby in particular, but it’s likely we’ll see an uptick in free passes, albeit hopefully worth the added K’s.
Castillo and Gilbert have the least to alter headed into 2026. For The Rock, it’s mostly a battle against time and a workload that is an outlier in this era. No longer needed to be the ace, Castillo is a lynchpin for Seattle’s efforts all the same, as his capacity to deliver six quality innings every fifth game eases the burden on the bullpen and is a luxury few clubs can boast. Gilbert, despite a halting campaign at times a season ago, is pursuing the same goal as Kirby from the opposite end. Despite great velocity, Gilbert’s four-seam fastball is a get-ahead offering but not a strikeout one. His splitter took over the slack for the deterioration of his slider, seemingly a side effect of his injury issues in 2026. Now sporting the slider and a refreshed cutter, Gilbert’s target is the 200 inning mark he eclipsed in 2024.
The depth will receive some greater shine tomorrow, but suffice to say Emerson Hancock cannot be given much chance in the bullpen as he was late in 2025. While the Georgia righty saw some promise there in short stints, if the M’s hope to avoid the return of the likes of Luis F. Castillo, they’ll hope Hancock can fill in most ably. He is, particularly at home, a fine option in a pinch. Too much, however, and the bullpen could be strained.
That bullpen’s capacity for strain will look familiar at the season’s outset, although more hale than this time a year ago. The back five of the ‘pen introduce southpaw Jose A. Ferrer, the return in the Harry Ford deal with the Nationals whose knack for groundballs will be a test for a Mariners infield that’s not prioritized defensive prowess in its construction. Still, joined by Speier, Bazardo, Brash, and Muñoz, the M’s can boast one of the better pathways from the 6th-9th in MLB. Likely, Seattle hopes to get to bounce back and forth on days between their five most potent arms, keeping 2-3 fresh per night as often as possible.
The presumed final three also serve that purpose in the inverse. Carlos Vargas, Casey Legumina, and Cooper Criswell all lack minor league options, hence their inclusion on this list, but only Criswell seems assured his role given his capacity for long relief and strong showing this spring.
Vargas and Legumina have been given ample opportunities in Seattle but have found mixed results, leaving hard-throwing righties Cole Wilcox and Yosver Zulueta windows to crack the club. Both hurlers, as well as the M’s bevy of 40-man relievers, have minor league options remaining, leaving them likeliest to begin the season in Triple-A Tacoma as a tiebreaker.
For Seattle to repeat as AL West champions, the pitching staff will need to improve upon a season ago. The most straightforward path is greater durability and performance from the rotation, easing the load on arms like Bazardo whose workload was, particularly by the end of the playoffs, Herculean. The M’s are positioned to be among the best in baseball on both sides of the ball. That’s what good teams do, and your Seattle Mariners are a good team.
CLEARWATER, FLORIDA - MARCH 13, 2026: Andrew Painter #76 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws a pitch during the first inning of a spring training game against the Baltimore Orioles at BayCare Ballpark on March 13, 2026 in Clearwater, Florida. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
The Phillies’ starting rotation was very good in 2025. They led the majors in wins above replacement and had the second lowest ERA (with the lowest FIP). They also had quality depth, as they were able to withstand injuries to Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola that caused them to miss large chunks of the season. But heading into camp this year, there were reasons to believe they wouldn’t be able to match that performance in 2026, and the rotation might actually turn out to be a weakness.
There was plenty of confidence in the top of the rotation where Cristopher Sanchez has established himself as an ace and Jesus Luzardo looks like a very capable number two, provided that he’s past his injury history. (Based on the extension the Phillies gave him, they certainly seem to think so).
After that, things started to get a little murky. Wheeler won’t be ready for the start of the season, and Ranger Suarez took a hefty payday and went to Boston. (Good for him, but I was okay with not paying him since he can’t seem to get through a full season healthy.) That left the Phillies with Nola, Andrew Painter, and Taijuan Walker in the Opening Day rotation, and there was uncertainty about all of them.
Nola had an awful 2025, spending much of it on the Injured List, and wasn’t very good most of the time when he did pitch. Painter, in his return from Tommy John surgery had poor numbers in the minors. And Walker is Walker: While he pitched adequately in 2025, he was one of the worst pitchers in baseball the year before.
Even more troubling was the lack of depth. With the trade of Mick Abel last year, there doesn’t appear to be anyone in the minors ready to step up and pitch well if the need arises. (To be fair, at this time last year, Abel looked like a failed prospect himself.)
While we should only place so much stock in what we see during the spring, there are signs that things are breaking in the Phillies direction.
Nola came into camp with increased velocity and pitched well in the WBC. If you buy into the “even year Nola” phenomenon, then we could see Nola pitch like he did in 2024 when he received Cy Young Award votes.
The last few starts from Aaron Nola have been incredibly encouraging.
The uptick in velocity looks legit, his body's moving a bit more efficiently and truly commanding every pitch. His arm slot has changed a bit: dropped it a bit/releasing further from his body/lower rel.… pic.twitter.com/3iEAnp0xak
Painter hasn’t yet looked like the future ace we were once promised, but his Spring performance has at least indicated that he can be a viable part of a good rotation this season. There are still questions about his ability to pitch deeper into games, but that’s the case for most pitchers in April these days. He likely won’t see past the fifth inning much -if at all – in the early part of the season.
Walker has looked great this spring, giving up just one run across three appearances, and an additional three scoreless innings pitching for Mexico in the WBC. Given his track record, it’s tough to expect too much from him, but he at least looks like he can once again be a serviceable starter when the team needs him.
In perhaps the best news of the spring, Wheeler has reportedly made great progress in his return from surgery. He’s ahead of schedule and might be back in the Phillies’ rotation in May.
Things are going so well that Phillies will put Zack Wheeler on an official rehab assignment Saturday with Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Three innings.
There’s obviously a lot that could go wrong: Nola might go back to having frequent mid-inning meltdowns and giving up multiple home runs in every start. (To be fair, he gives up a fair share of home runs in his good seasons too.) Painter might be Spencer Howard 2.0 in that he can’t maintain top velocity for more than a couple of innings. Walker might not be able to overcome his lack of stuff and revert to being one of the worst pitchers in baseball. And even if he makes it back to the majors, Wheeler might never regain his form that made him one of the best pitchers in the game.
That doesn’t even get into the inevitable injuries that can – and likely will – happen. An injury to either Sanchez or Luzardo would be tough to overcome, and the thought of seeing the likes of Bryse Wilson or Alan Rangel making multiple starts is not a comforting one.
But don’t forget that there’s also a lot that can go right, and based on what we’ve seen this spring, there’s reason to believe that the Phillies will once again have one of the best rotations in baseball.
WASHINGTON, DC - APRIL 04: Josiah Gray #40 of the Washington Nationals pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the fifth inning at Nationals Park on April 04, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images) | Getty Images
In a really sad piece of news, the Nationals announced that Josiah Gray has been placed on the 60-Day IL with a Flexor Strain. This is a crushing setback for Gray, who has missed pretty much all of the last two seasons due to Tommy John. Now, the right hander is dealing with yet another arm injury.
The Nationals have made the following roster moves:
-Selected the contract of LHP Cionel Pérez -Placed RHP Paxton Schultz on the 15-day IL (retro to 3/22) with right elbow inflammation -Recalled RHP Josiah Gray and placed Gray on the 60-day IL (retro to 3/22) with a right flexor…
— Nationals Communications (@NationalsComms) March 23, 2026
After being sent to Triple-A, and seemingly being healthy, the Nats dropped this bomb on us yesterday. The team’s 2023 All-Star will be back on the shelf until at least late May due to this injury. At this point, you have to worry about Gray’s future after all of these injuries.
Before this Tommy John Surgery, Gray was relatively durable in the minors and his early big league career. He made 28 starts in 2022 and 30 in 2023. However, he has only made two starts since then.
A Flexor Strain was actually what started all of this. That was Gray’s original diagnosis when he went down in April of 2024. However, he eventually had to go under the knife and missed the rest of that season and all of 2025. Now, he is facing a brutal full circle moment.
Hopefully, this Flexor Strain does not lead to another big surgery and is just a relatively minor set back. If you want to be optimistic, we saw Cade Cavalli have a bumpy Tommy John recovery and now he is starting on Opening Day. Hopefully, we can see that sort of come back from Gray.
It is a real bummer for Gray, who was clearly so happy to be back on the field. He said he felt healthy for most of this spring, despite his velocity not being at pre-surgery levels. Maybe that drop in velocity should have been more of a red flag, but the rest of his arsenal looked sharp. Gray also seemed confident that the velocity would eventually come back.
The Nationals have placed Josiah Gray on the 60-day IL with a right flexor strain. Gray, who hasn’t pitched since April 2024, was healthy this spring and optimistic after being optioned to AAA last week. This has to be a crushing blow to him.
The hope is that Gray can come off the IL after the initial 60 days, but even if he does, the road back to the big leagues will be long. He was going to start the year in AAA anyway, but now he will need even more reps in the minors after the injury setback.
At this point, you have to wonder if we will ever see that 2023 version of Gray ever again. He is going to miss basically two and a half years at this point. Between the wear and tear on the arm and the rust, it will be a tough road back for the righty. Gray seems like a high character guy, so I have faith that he will put the work in.
However, this news makes that Max Scherzer/Trea Turner trade look even worse. In hindsight, that move set the Nats back at least five years. They traded two franchise cornerstones for Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz. Between the injuries to Gray and that unfortunate extension to Ruiz, that deal is aging like milk.
Even if the Dodgers did not win a championship with those two, they easily won that deal. Scherzer was fantastic for them down the stretch and Turner played some of the best ball of his career in LA. That trade kicked off the Nats rebuild, and immediately put things on the wrong foot.
You can pin some of that on injuries to Gray and Ruiz, but they also just were not as good as they were expected to be. Both seem like high character guys, but the production just has not been there. Maybe, the Nats should have been more honest with themselves and went for higher upside guys who may have been further from the big leagues. Instead, they tried to get big league ready players with hopes of a quick retool.
Now, the Nats have to rebuild the rebuild. This trade is one of the biggest reasons why that is happening, along with poor drafting. I am gutted for Gray, but there is some symbolism in this move. Hopefully, Josiah Gray can bounce back and become a cog in the middle of the Nats rotation again.
TORONTO, CANADA - NOVEMBER 8: Morgan Geekie #39 of the Boston Bruins celebrates after scoring a goal during the first period against the Toronto Maple Leafs at the Scotiabank Arena on November 8, 2025 in Toronto, ON, Canada. (Photo by Kevin Sousa/NHLI via Getty Images) | NHLI via Getty Images
William Nylander: 24G-41A-65PTS; John Tavares: 25G-32A-57PTS; Matthew Knies: 18G-39A-57PTS
Joseph Woll: 14-13-6, 3.17 GAA, .905 save percentage
Game notes
The Maple Leafs head into TD Garden losers of three games in a row, with one (or both) eyes on the merciful arrival of the end of the 2025-2026 season, which can’t come soon enough for Toronto.
With the B’s in the thick of the playoff hunt and points at a premium, you need a win tonight. However, it might behoove the Bruins to someone win beyond regulation, giving the Maple Leafs a point in the process to keep them from retaining their 2026 first-round pick. Two points would be a fine result, but two+plus one would be a win-win. I probably shouldn’t get greedy though.
The Bruins are 2-0-0 against the Leafs this season, with both wins coming by a 5-3 score (one at home, one in Toronto).
In case you missed it, Auston Matthews is out for the season after suffering a knee injury via Radko Gudas. Given the team’s collective lack of response to the hit and the general malaise around the organization, some columnists are starting to wonder how long Matthews has left in Toronto. What a shame.
Anthony Stolarz missed his scheduled start against Ottawa on Saturday night and ended up in the hospital instead after he was hit in the neck by a William Nylander shot in warm-ups. He has since been released from the hospital, but it’s unclear if he’s ready to play. Joseph Woll started that Ottawa game instead; he has lost his last four starts, with two of those coming beyond regulation.
After snapping his brief goal-scoring drought, David Pastrnak continues to lead the way for the Bruins. He has 4G-4A-8PTS in his last five games. He has been a nightmare for the Maple Leafs over the course of his career, putting up 27G-20A-47PTS totals in 34 regular season games.
After a stellar performance on Saturday night, it might make sense to give Jeremy Swayman another start tonight. However, the Bruins will be in Buffalo on Wednesday night, so you could make the argument you’d rather have him available for that higher-caliber game. If it were up to me, I’d probably start Joonas Korpisalo tonight and give Swayman the Buffalo game.
With points in eight of their last ten games, you’d think the Bruins would have solidified their grip on a playoff spot, but it remains tenuous thanks to the play of teams chasing them. The B’s are currently in the first wild card spot, two points ahead of Detroit (who dropped out behind the Islanders). However, the Blue Jackets (6-1-3 in their last ten), Senators (8-2-0), and even the Flyers (7-2-1) remain on the heels of the Bruins and others.
Games tonight with playoff implications for the Bruins include Montreal vs. Carolina, a “just don’t go to overtime” game of Ottawa vs. Detroit, Chicago vs. the New York Islanders, and Columbus vs. Philly.
Mar 22, 2026; New York, New York, USA; Washington Wizards guard Sharife Cooper (13) dribbles against New York Knicks forward Jeremy Sochan (20) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
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Right now, the Washington Wizards have lost 16 games in a row and have a 16-55 record. With 71 regular season games done this season, the Wizards, in theory, could lose out and finish with a 16-66 record. That would mean that Washington could lose 27 games in a row to finish the 2025-26 season. Then, if the Wizards start out the 2026-27 season 0-2, that losing streak, combined with the 27 game losing streak to end the 2025-26 season, will give the Wizards a 29 game losing streak, the longest in NBA history?
Mar 23, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker (7) dribbles the ball against the Memphis Grizzlies during the second half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
The Atlanta Hawks returned to winning ways — and an 11th consecutive victory at home — with a lopsided 146-107 victory over the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday night at State Farm Arena.
The Hawks — without Jalen Johnson — were led by Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s 28 points, while Onyeka Okongwu and Jonathan Kuminga both added 16 points. For the Grizzlies — who are injury hit/running for the lottery — GG Jackson scored 26 points with Tyler Burton adding 20 points.
We’re at a point in the season where teams who are gunning for the playoffs, jostling for playoff seeding, meet teams whose have a very different objective at this time of the year — and there’s more teams than usual who fit this criteria this season. As a result, some games are more so formalities than contests; box-ticking exercises.
In this case: did the Memphis Grizzlies show up to the game? Yes, yes they did. They took a 5-0 lead, hung around in the first quarter (trailing by just 10 points to end the first quarter), and that was their general team contribution to this game.
The Hawks — who by no means played a sexy first quarter (eight turnovers, forcing passes that were a bit too far out of reach) — were extremely comfortable in this game, and while this game was never really a contest (leading by double digits in the first quarter, running the lead to 26 points in the second quarter, 30 points — and quickly 40+ points — in the third quarter) the Hawks remained professional throughout, and their first quarter play was a microcosm for how the rest of the game essentially unfolded, so we’ll look at some of the plays from last night.
From the outset, the Hawks’ ball movement was excellent, this three-pointer finished by CJ McCollum one such example of the Hawks’ willingness to pass, move, relocate, and find the open man:
Even when the Hawks were absolutely blowing the Grizzlies out in the third quarter, they still committed to this style of play when the ball moved around to find Gabe Vincent for a three-pointer with 1:41 remaining.
The Hawks tallied 37 assists and would only register three more turnovers for the remainder of the game following their eight turnovers in the first quarter.
“That’s the possession game,” said Hawks head coach Quin Snyder of cleaning up the turnovers. “The fact that we did that to be able to clean that up against a team that was denying passes and trying to extend pressure up the floor. I thought our guys settled into that and were much more secure with the ball, and that takes more than just one player. You’ve gotta work to get open, sometimes you’ve got to ball fake, you got to be spaced if someone needs help. It was good to see.”
Alexander-Walker scored 13 points in the first, and with Memphis’ lack of size inside the paint Alexander-Walker was able to consistently get to the rim and finish.
The Grizzlies did their share to help the Hawks at times, and a breakdown on the switch with Taylor Hendricks allows Alexander-Walker to turn the corner, attack the paint where he takes the bump, adjusts, and finishes for the ‘and-1’ play:
Coming off the curl from the corner and off the dribble hand-off from Jock Landale, Alexander-Walker is able to burst into the paint where he is uncontested for the dunk:
And, of course, the pick of the bunch. Kuminga intercepts the pass, does well to twist and turn to get the ball to the streaking Alexander-Walker, who charges to the rim and finishes the left-handed poster dunk, plus the foul:
“From when I got the ball, I could see the defender was timing me,” said Alexander-Walker of the play. “So, I knew I had to go aggressively. If I tried to lay it up, I think like the more aggressive guy wins in that situation. For me, it was just like, ‘All right, let’s just go for it,‘ mentality. I wanted to battle that one. I was just surprised. It’s funny because the guys get on me to dunk all the time. I tell them, like, ‘That’s just not what I like to do,’ you know. For me to go get one in that fashion was pretty funny.”
This play — and the Kuminga three the possession prior to this — were a big swing to end the first quarter as the Hawks had allowed Memphis to creep back towards them after a sloppy first quarter. With these two plays, the Hawks never really looked back.
Memphis did their best to help the Hawks with their turnovers and shot selection, such as this turnover where DeJon Jarreau loses the handle for the turnover:
On the drive, Walton Clayton Jr. attempts to throw a lob for Hendricks, only for Hendricks to have already fanned out to the corner, resulting in a turnover:
Memphis’ shot selection, however, was their greater issue. The early recipe to try attain a foothold in this game was Ty Jerome, and from the early exchanges this did yield success.
Jerome is well defended on the drive by Dyson Daniels, and forces him to take a turnaround jumpshot, which is short:
In transition, the Grizzlies find Clayton Jr. in the corner, but with 18 seconds remaining on the shotclock there’s likely a better shot than a fading three-point attempt in the corner:
The Hawks did their part to limit the Grizzlies, too, with some good Alexander-Walker defense preventing Clayton Jr. fro getting to the rim, and forcing a tough turnaround airball:
The Grizzlies would take many jumpshots in this game, indicative of both the Grizzlies’ lack of quality to create offense and the Hawks’ ability to limit penetration (and defend the rim when the Grizzlies got there) and keep Memphis in front of them.
Looking at some other team stats, the Hawks scored a whopping 39 points off of 23 Memphis turnovers, which also contributed to 26 fastbreak points. Nickeil Alexander-Walker pointed to the team’s defense in contributing to the Hawks’ fastbreak scoring, crediting Mo Gueye for his contributions (starting in place of Jalen Johnson).
“Just defense, active gaps,” said Alexander-Walker postgame of the fastbreak scoring. “Mo Gueye has been tremendous in terms of bringing activity for us, deflections. If you notice, he always racks them up whenever he’s playing. I think that’s just been big for us, what he has been able to do defensively. Dyson’s going to be him, he’s going to be disruptive, challenging passing lanes for everybody. I think it was a collective unit; we felt like we were on a string with rotations, with shifts, cycles, etc.”
The Hawks enjoyed a rare advantage on the offensive glass, grabbing 12 offensive rebounds leading to 19 second chance points; an efficient conversion. Efficient would be a good adjective to describe the Hawks in this game: 53% shooting from the field, 46% from three (making 25 in total), and shooting 23-of-25 from the free throw line.
The Hawks took care of business, which was the theme of the night in the postgame availability.
“I think it’s a collective thing where guys are just putting the team first,” said Snyder when asked about the maturity of his side taking care of business.“ When you say that, the things that those guys are doing right now demonstrate that. That’s got to be our focus, and when it is we’re crashing the offensive glass, we’re sharing the ball, getting in the lane, breaking the paint, and then sharing the ball. The focus on the defense is the most important thing when you see everybody bought into that, that says a lot about the guys in our locker room. Their maturity, but also just their focus. Whether you’re 22 or 32.”
Nickeil Alexander-Walker, as ever, summed up the matter very eloquently, saying the Hawks were very much aware of who they are playing, and who they should beat.
“I think as a group, we’ve been professional and that’s what it’s about, doing your job,” said Alexander-Walker. “It doesn’t matter who they put out in front of you. We were very conscious of who we were playing against tonight. We’ve seen the Boston game, we’ve seen the Denver game, and those are teams playing their full roster. Those are teams trying to get wins for seeding in the playoffs. Those guys, they’re winning games. One thing I learned is that if you lose to a team like that, it’s bad. If you beat a team like that, ‘Oh, you’re supposed to blah, blah, blah, blah’. You don’t really win in that situation. So, you kind of got to drown out the noise. You just got to be professional. It’s my job to play the game, it’s my job to play hard, it’s my job to try to win and do what I need to do for the team. Everyone showed up tonight to do that, and I think that’s been the one consistent thing that’s shown over time.”
“At the end of the day, these are the 450 best players in the world,” added Onyeka Okongwu. “Those guys over there, the Grizzlies, are dealing with a lot of injuries, a lot of guys in and out of the lineups. Those guys are just getting opportunities; you see guys like Prosper and Hendricks, they’re all just playing so hard and giving their all. Still got to respect it, but we still do what we do and take care of business at the end of the day.”
Aside from taking care of business, Snyder was pleased with the Hawks’ ball movement, crediting CJ McCollum’s contributions in the first quarter in setting the standard early, then Alexander-Walker’s efforts in the third quarter.
“It’s terrific. I thought CJ set the tone early, where he was just in the lane, had his eyes out finding people,” said Snyder of the Hawks’ unselfishness. “Then, Nickeil had a stretch, beginning the third quarter, where those guys playing that way, it raises everybody’s level, it sets a tone. It wasn’t just the two of them but, to me, they stood out because they’re both capable scorers and they get in there too. For them to be looking for their teammates, and they do. but it was noticeable tonight in those two situations, I thought, in a very obvious way. We were obviously unselfish, which I like to be able to say that.”
The nature of this game meant there was a lot of garbage time in the fourth quarter, and every player who checked into the game scored for the Hawks, including eight players in double-digit scoring. Alexander-Walker led the way with 26 points on 8-of-11 shooting from the field, and 4-of-6 from three, scoring 22 points in the first half. Jonathan Kuminga enjoyed a stronger game, also hitting four threes en route to 16 points off the bench, while Okongwu was an ever-present threat inside the paint on both ends of the floor.
Perhaps the most encouraging takeaway was a second consecutive game where Dyson Daniels hit multiple three-pointers in a game, shooting 2-of-3 from behind the arc.
“He’s done that before,” said Syder of Daniels’ shooting. “If you look, maybe not as much this year, but that’s who he is, and we don’t want him to not be aggressive in any situation. His aggressiveness offensively can manifest itself a lot of ways, just being prepared to shoot. I’ve talked to you guys before about just space, and then read, and if he’s got the shot, take the shot. He’s pretty good getting in the paint, too.”
As Snyder said, this is not new for Daniels overall — and those threes he took and hit last night looked like the threes he made last season — but for this season, it is an enormous boost. In 10 games in March so far, Daniels is shooting 31% from three; obviously not a high percentage but in the context of Daniels’ season it’s an enormous step forward.
All-in-all, a very professional game from the Atlanta Hawks, who won with ease in a spot where victory was expected. What was most impressive was the how the Hawks didn’t ease off the throttle in the third quarter, playing in a similar manner than in the first quarter with their ball and man movement when they could have easily began to ease up and play in a carefree manner. It speaks to a focus and a recognition of the seriousness of where the Hawks are in their season, now with a clear opportunity to make the top-6 in the East.
It was a very good night in that regard; Orlando inexplicably broke the Pacers’ 16 game losing streak, while Miami and Philadelphia suffered heavy home losses against the top two in the West. The Hawks need as much margin as they can get, as they have the fourth most difficult schedule remaining in the NBA.
The Hawks (40-32) are back in action on Wednesday, when they’ll take on the Detroit Pistons at Little Caesars Arena.
The Pistons will be without Cade Cunningham, and while it’s a great time to play the Pistons in that sense, they should not be underestimated having just snapped the Lakers’ nine game winning streak without Cunningham.
TAMPA, FL - MARCH 21: Garrett Baumann #90 of the Atlanta Braves pitches during the game between the Atlanta Braves and the New York Yankees at George M. Steinbrenner Field on Saturday, March 21, 2026 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Carlson/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
With the 2026 Spring Breakout Series coming to an end, MLB Pipeline released their All-Spring Breakout Teams, with a pair of Atlanta Braves prospects making the first team. John Gil made it as the third baseman, which is the position he played in the game, while Garrett Baumann was one of six pitchers selected to the first team.
Gil, who went one for three with a homer, walk, and hit by pitch, scored twice and batted in a pair of runs against the Yankees team. Baumann went three innings without allowing a hit or walk and struck out five on just 31 pitches on Saturday night.
This honor for Gil and Baumann comes after both players enjoyed strong springs that have given them a slight up arrow on their prospect status heading into their 2026 seasons. Both of these guys are candidates to open the season in Double-A, and with strong seasons could potentially earn the right to make their big league debuts in the near future.
CLEVELAND, OHIO - SEPTEMBER 26: Cody Freeman #39 celebrates with Alejandro Osuna #19 of the Texas Rangers after Osuna hit a three-run homer during the first inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on September 26, 2025 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) | Getty Images
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Okay folks…spring training is over, Opening Day is two days away, the season is about to kick off.
We are doing one last win total poll heading into the season.
How many regular season games will the 2026 Texas Rangers win?
Oct 28, 2024; New York, New York, USA; New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman walks on the field before game three of the 2024 MLB World Series between the New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Dodgers at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images
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It’s crazy how time flies. I can remember pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training like it was yesterday, and now we’re on the eve of Opening Day! Furthermore, it feels like just last week that we asked the fanbase to evaluate general manager Brian Cashman and the offseason moves that he oversaw, when it fact it’s been a month-and-a-half since we ran our offseason grading poll.
Sitting on the doorstep of the 2026 season, we felt it was the perfect opportunity to take the fanbase’s temperature one last time before meaningful games get underway.
This was one of the busiest spring training periods in recent memory between the World Baseball Classic and normal Grapefruit League schedule. The tournament was a resounding success, with Venezuela narrowly defeating Team USA to secure their first ever WBC crown. Attendance and broadcast records were smashed, with several Yankees representing their nations, including Aaron Judge as captain of Team USA.
There were plenty of developments at the spring training complex as well. Much of the noise coming out of Tampa centered on a trio of exciting prospects. Spencer Jones continued his habit of demolishing spring training pitching, slashing .333/.429/.917 with four home runs, eight RBIs, three stolen bases, a 14.3-percent walk rate and encouraging 28.6-percent strikeout rate, and 227 wRC+ in 28 plate appearances spanning 11 games. Top pitching prospect Elmer Rodríguez affirmed that he is the most polished of the Yankees’ farm arms, making a pair of starts and allowing two runs in six innings without giving up a home run and showcasing his command of a deep arsenal.
However, it was electric pitching prospect Carlos Lagrange who stole headlines, emerging as one of if not the most exciting pitching prospects in all of baseball. He largely dominated opposing major league hitters with his high octane fastball that touched as high as 103 mph, displaying the improvements in command he’s made over the last year. Shelling at the hand of the Cubs notwithstanding, Lagrange’s performances caught the eye of the major league coaching staff, and it’s not out of the question that he could impact the big league club this year. All three prospects were optioned to minor league camp, but their strong springs have positioned each for a potential call-up should reinforcements be needed.
The last week has seen the team finalize the active roster. Jasson Domínguez and Oswaldo Cabrera were optioned to Triple-A while non-roster invitee Randal Grichuk was tendered a major league contract and Rule 5 draftee Cade Winquest still has a chance to break camp with the team. The Yankees acquired Angel Chivilli and Max Schuemann to provide depth in the bullpen and infield, respectively, but promptly optioned the pair to the minors as they give reps at shortstop to Ryan McMahon and are pondering the selection of Brent Headrick’s contract.
The biggest story in terms of roster construction in recent days, however, concerns the starting rotation. Aaron Boone hinted at the possibility of a four-man rotation for the first two turns with the Yankees having four offdays in the first two weeks, including reaffirming their commitment to offseason trade acquisition Ryan Weathers as a member of the rotation despite his rocky spring. This opens the door to the Yankees optioning Luis Gil to Triple-A to open the year, the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year hitting the lowest of lows and highest of highs in his final two spring starts.
Speaking of the rotation, there is plenty of reason to be encouraged. Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón are on time if not ahead of schedule with their throwing programs, the former even making a spring start and reaching as high as 99 mph with his fastball. Will Warren looks to have taken a massive step over the offseason following an up-and-down rookie campaign and was the Yankees’ most consistent starter in spring. Cam Schlittler emerged from an early spring injury scare to look like the pitcher who dominated after his second half call-up.
As for the offense, it’s the exact same group that finished last season. The Yankees kept their starting outfield intact in retaining Trent Grisham on the qualifying offer and bringing Cody Bellinger back into the fold for five years and $162.5 million. It’s fair to criticize the Yankees’ lack of ambition in running it back with the same starting nine, but this was the best offense in baseball last year by runs per game and wRC+ and projects to place in the top-five in terms of runs scored and offensive wins.
It is therefore no surprise that a pair of projection systems have the Yankees as one of the two or three best teams in the AL. FanGraphs projects that they will win the division with the second-most wins (87) in the AL behind the Mariners and the third best playoff odds (70.2-percent) behind the Mariners and Tigers. PECOTA predicts that they will finish second behind the Blue Jays, but still with the third-most wins (88) and third-best playoff odds (67.3-percent) behind Toronto and Seattle.
So now I would like to turn it over to you. How far do you think the Yankees will go in 2026? Can they make it back to the World Series after their early postseason exit last year? Will they miss out on the playoffs entirely? Additionally, we ask that you let us know whether you approve of the job Yankees GM Brian Cashman has done this spring in finalizing the roster. Vote in our polls below:
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - AUGUST 15: Francisco Alvarez #4 of the New York Mets celebrates his three run home run against the Seattle Mariners at Citi Field on August 15, 2025 in New York City. The Mariners defeated the Mets 11-9. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Linda Surovich: Carson Benge wins ROTY
During the offseason, David Stearns announced that Carson Benge would be given a chance to compete for a spot on the major league roster during spring training. A spot cleared on the roster for him with Brandon Nimmo’s departure and Juan Soto moving to left field this season. The stars were aligning for Benge to seize a roster spot and, so far, he has done nothing to cast doubt in anyone’s mind that he belongs on this team. All he has done is hit and it is his elite hit tool that has earned him the status as the team’s top offensive prospect. Of course, the number one prospect in the organization is Nolan McLean who will also undoubtedly be in the running for Rookie of the Year, but I am predicting that all of Benge’s tools, both offensively and defensively, will be enough to take McLean down for the award.
Brian Salvatore: Kodai Senga posts an ERA below 2.50
One of the biggest follies in baseball prediction is presuming past performance will repeat despite recent examples to the contrary. 2023 Kodai Senga was a revelation for the Mets: 2nd place in the NL Rookie of the Year, some down ballot Cy Young votes, and an All-Star selection in his first MLB season.
But then came 2024, and injuries limited Senga to just one regular season appearance and three mostly ineffective postseason appearances. 2025 started off strong, but another injury caused by trying to cover first base led to missed time and, more importantly, Senga never looked the same once he returned. But before the injury, Senga made 13 starts, putting up a 1.74 ERA in 73.2 innings pitched. Yes, his FIP was more than a run higher, so maybe there was some luck present, but Senga looked much more like the rookie than he did in his frustrating late-2024 appearances.
With stronger up the middle defense, a potential six-man rotation, and a coaching staff more aligned with the front office, things seem like they may be working in Senga’s favor. Already this spring, Senga’s velocity is back up to the high 90s, and his ghost fork is diving out of the strike zone like it did in ‘23. If he can stay healthy, Senga is poised to have a monster season.
My initial bold prediction for Senga was a sub-3.00 ERA, but that’s not bold enough. In 2023, he did just that. In 2025, even with a month and a half of general ineffectiveness, his ERA only topped out at 3.02. So let’s be bolder: Kodai Senga’s ERA will be lower than 2.50 for 2026.
Michael Drago: The Mets will have the best OF in baseball by fWAR
Last year’s outfield – despite having added one of the best players in the game over the past winter – was somewhat frustrating. Juan Soto was every bit as good with the bat as advertised, but he did have some horribly unlucky clutch numbers, and was unsurprisingly terrible in right field. Brandon Nimmo, while not quite fully cooked, certainly showed signs of continued skill degradation. And the less said about the team’s production (or lack thereof) in center field, the better.
But of the many things that will hopefully go better for the 2026 Mets, I’m going to bet on the team’s overall outfield production to be one of the biggest improvements. Soto will have an MVP-caliber season (and might even win it if the voters get tired of giving it to Ohtani every year), as his numbers in clutch situations will revert back to the mean while his shift to left field will result in his defense not being TOO detrimental. Luis Robert Jr. will reclaim his offensive skills and be, at a bare minimum, a solid bat after freeing himself from the stink of the White Sox vibes/coaching staff, and that combined with his elite center field defense will make him a significant improvement over what the Mets got out of the position last year (and of course, the potential for him reaching his previous MVP candidate peak remains there). And in right field, Carson Benge – whether it be at the start of the season or shortly thereafter – will establish himself as a long-term piece for the Amazin’s, providing a well-rounded offensive game along with a strong glove in right field (and meanwhile, Mike Tauchman will either be a serviceable placeholder for Benge or a solid bench piece). It will all add up to being one of the stronger outfield units the Mets have had in recent memory, and it will be the envy of just about every other team in baseball.
Allison McCague: Tobias Myers will stick in the Mets’ rotation
One big difference between this current Mets team and the Mets of one year ago is that their starting pitching is remarkably healthy as we tick closer to Opening Day. I am knocking on all of the wood as I type this; as of this writing, Nolan McLean still has to pitch in the World Baseball Classic final and everyone else has a Grapefruit League appearance or two left before the regular season gets underway. But as of now, the Mets have a full six-man rotation’s worth of healthy major league caliber pitchers (Freddy Peralta, Nolan McLean, Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, David Peterson).
That pushes Tobias Myers, also acquired from the Brewers in the Freddy Peralta trade, to the bullpen as the swingman. But I think it won’t be long before Myers finds himself in the rotation full-time and I predict that once he’s there, he’ll stick there. The obvious reason this prediction may not seem that bold on its face is that, well, pitchers break. Even though the rotation is healthy right now, it may not stay that way and we don’t need to look any further than last year’s team or at any other team around the majors to see how important pitching depth is to an organization. Last year, Griffin Canning was an excellent example of the Mets maximizing on a guy’s talent and transforming him into a cromulent fill-in guy when injuries took their toll until injury took him down as well.
The part that is bold here is that I don’t think it will even necessarily take injuries for Myers to force his way up the depth chart. I think Myers is already the third or fourth best starting pitcher the Mets have and that will crystalize sooner rather than later. Sean Manaea’s velocity has been down this spring. Neither the Mets nor Manaea expressed concern about this and it could be nothing, but if he is ineffective in his first few starts, that is already reason enough to limit his innings and give Myers more of a shot. Holmes and McLean are both adjusting to full season workloads. If you put any stock in spring training performance, Myers has been excellent, posting a 1.08 ERA in 8 1/3 innings with nine strikeouts and an increased induced vertical break on his fastball. The Mets are making changes with his arm angle, grip, and pitch mix that make one optimistic we could see a huge performance spike from him this year, which is why I think he’s going to earn a spot in the rotation sooner rather than later and not relinquish it once he does.
Linus Lawrence: Brett Baty posts more than 4.5 WAR in 2026
I think Brett Baty is going to be very good. Not great. He’s not going to win an MVP or anything. But he’ll be really, pretty, very good. My evidence? Here are his WAR/162 rates from each of his four big league seasons thus far:
2022: -4.4 2023: -1.1 2024: 0.9 2025: 3.8
Now I’m no statistician, but that looks to me like a fairly reliable incline. If the pattern continues, he’d be due for ~6 WAR this season. That’s a starling number, and one he’s highly unlikely to reach, especially if his playing time comes more from first base and left field than third base this season. But he’s only 26 years old, a former first-round pick and top prospect, and nowhere near finished developing as a ballplayer. With the Mets’ previous homegrown core of Nimmo, Alonso, and McNeil a thing of the past, it’s time for the baby Mets — Baty, Alvarez, and Vientos — to become the new old guard. David Stearns believes in him. Billy Eppler believed in him. Heck, Brodie Van Wagenen believed in him. So should we.
Thomas Henderson: Jorge Polanco is more valuable than Pete Alonso in 2026 by WAR
One of the more controversial moves, according to a lot of the online fan base and the media at large, was the Mets’ decision to let Pete Alonso take his talents to Baltimore, Maryland, and the subsequent choice to replace him with longtime middle infielder Jorge Polanco. So, since it’s bold prediction season after all, what better way to really dive into that than to make a prediction about both of them?
So, my bold prediction is that Jorge Polanco will have a higher fWAR than Pete Alonso.
It sounds kind of outrageous on its front, as Alonso has a huge reputation and Polanco’s reputation is more of a secondary player. However, I think they are closer than one may think, especially with the impending move to first base for the latter.
Since the 2021 season began, Alonso has amassed a 15.8 fWAR, good for 44th in all of baseball, and Polanco comes in a fair bit lower, with 10 fWAR, making him the 92nd best player in baseball over that same stretch. However, I think the defense will be key for this bold prediction.
Even the most ardent Alonso fan will likely admit he’s never been a gold glove defender, but his Outs Above Average numbers paint a dire picture for the Polar Bear. His -9 OAA ranked as 14th worst in all of baseball last year, and I personally find it hard to believe that it will improve, considering his age and, frankly, his already middling defensive skillset.
On the other hand, Polanco has a much better chance to improve on his middling defensive numbers. He was never a truly excellent defender as a (mostly) middle infielder, but there is historical precedent for a player moving to first base and taking to it.
If you look at last year’s OAA first base leader board, there are plenty of first base converts on that list. Ty France, Willson Contreras, Jonathan Arranda and Bryce Harper are all players who moved to first base, and ended up in the top twelve of first basemen according to OAA. That doesn’t even mention Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who went from a truly awful third baseman—we’re talking like -19 OAA in 2019—to a mostly bang average first baseman. It stands to reason that Jorge Polanco, a below-average to bad middle infielder, can improve his defensive statistics enough to shorten the gap between him and Alonso, according to fWAR. As long as their bats remain similar, and over three of the last four seasons they roughly are, save for a brutal 2024 for Polanco, and it’ll be interesting to see how the defensive side of things comes along for Polanco.
Vasilis Drimalitis: Francisco Alvarez stays healthy and is an NL All-Star
I was initially planning to go intentionally vague with my prediction and say Alvarez will have an “All-Star caliber season”, but that feels like a cop out, so I’m going to go a little bolder than I initially intended. The main point here is that I believe Alvarez finally has the season that Mets fans and the organization have been waiting for. What that means may vary from person-to-person, but first and foremost he stays healthy, puts up elite offensive production for a catcher, and becomes an impact bat, which helps make the bottom half of the Mets’ lineup look considerably better. And let’s put the cherry on top and predict that he’s named to the NL All Star team, for good measure.
Since being ranked the top prospect in all of baseball in 2022, Alvarez has failed to live up to those sky-high expectations. He played 123 games and hit 25 games in 2023, which is the best the Mets have seen from him over the course of a full season. He posted a wRC+ of 96 in 2023, 101 in 2024, and 124 in 2025. Injuries, including many that really boil down to bad luck, have held him back—last year alone, he fractured his left hamate bone during spring training, suffered a UCL sprain in his thumb, and fractured his left pinky after being hit by a pitch during a rehab assignment. That all comes after he tore a ligament in his thumb, costing him two months in 2024. All of that sapped his power, resulting in just 22 home runs combined over the past two seasons.
The second half of his season last year is what really makes me think Alvarez is going to be one of *the guys* for the team. After his return from the minors in the second half of the season, he posted a 157 wRC+ and hit eight homers and nine doubles over 40 games. He slashed .276/.360/.561 and was one of the best hitters on the club. Among all National League catchers with a minimum 100 plate appearances in the second half of the 2025 season, Alvarez had the best wRC+ (157) and the fourth-best fWAR (1.5), proving that, at his best, he can be ranked among the best NL catchers. I expect that to carry over into the year. His luck is also bound to turn around at some point, and this is the year that will happen for Alvarez, keeping him on the field for 110-120 games.
Alvarez’s career-best fWAR is 3.0 in 2025, so I’m going to predict that he surpasses that and finishes top-5 among NL catchers. With the hand and arm injuries behind him, I’ll predict that he also eclipses the 20 home run mark for the second time in his career. Lastly, I’ll say that Alvarez sets a career best mark in wRC+, topping last season.
Lukas Vlahos: The Mets finish 2026 with at least seven top-101 prospects
Per Baseball Prospectus, the Mets currently have seven prospects in the top 101: Nolan McLean, Carson Benge, Jonah Tong, A.J. Ewing, Jacob Reimer, Ryan Clifford, and Will Watson. Three of these are near locks to graduate – McLean, Benge, and Tong – while Clifford has already seen Triple-A and the others are not far behind. It’s within the realm of possibility that five or more of these players graduate.
I’m betting that doesn’t come to pass, that the major league roster will be good enough to prevent all of Ewing, Reimer, Clifford, and Watson from cracking the big leagues for long enough to lose rookie eligibility. Tied to that, I’m also betting that none of them see a significant decline in their prospect stock, nor that any will be traded. The first half of that is born out of conviction in all of these players. The latter half is an estimation that no player worth trading one of these players for will become available at the trade deadline.
That’s only four names though, how do we get the Mets top-101 count back up to seven? Mitch Voit is the obvious addition, even if his post-draft debut was shaky. I’m betting that at least one player from the group of Elian Peña, Eli Serrano (my personal favorite), Jack Wenninger, Jonathan Santucci, and Zach Thornton are in this conversation as well. And beyond that, I’m making a broader bet on Mets development to continue drastically increasing the stock of prospects that are more off the public’s radar to add one final name here. Maybe it’s Antonio Jimenez. Maybe it’s Peter Kussow. It could be Carlos Guzman. Who knows.
There are so many potential paths here and I have such strong conviction in the Mets’ development apparatus at this stage that I am confident they will have at least seven top-101 names once again next offseason.
