The Braves return to action tonight at Truist Park to begin a three-game set against the Texas Rangers. We’re hoping they’re well-rested and ready to come out of the All-Star break hot. Or at least playing better than .500 ball, like how they began July.

We can afford to be optimistic knowing the players that are set to return and make an impact in the second half. It’ll be like making a trade…

Among those are Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ha-Seong Kim, who began their rehab assignment on Monday with the FCL Braves. They will now continue their rehab in Triple-A with the Gwinnett Stripers (alternatively, acronyms abound: RAJ and HSK join AJSS in AAA).

In three games with the FCL Braves, Acuña Jr. was 1-for-7 with two walks, but that one hit was a grand slam yesterday.

In his three games, Ha-Seong Kim was 2-for-6 with a homer and three walks.

The Stripers begin a series against the Mud Hens in Toledo tonight before returning home on Tuesday, July 21. We’ll likely hear more from Walt Weiss about their estimated timeline to return to the big club before tonight’s game.

The Pittsburgh Pirates were making moves on the last day of the All-Star Break, acquiring former top prospect Robert Hassell III from the Washington Nationals on Thursday for cash or a player to be named later.

The 24-year-old Hassell was a first round draft choice of the San Diego Padres in 2020 and was regarded as a top 40 prospect in 2022 and 2023 before failing to progress any further.

Hassell, an outfielder, was playing in Triple-A this season and was hitting an underwhelming .215 with just 2 homers and 15 RBIs. He did play 70 games with the Nationals varsity last season, finishing the year hitting .223 with 3 homers and 18 RBIs on 197 at-bats.

Obviously, the Bucs are taking a flyer on some unfulfilled potential with Hassell, and they have a need for some depth in the outfield, but the Nationals were do desperate to get rid of him that they traded him to the Bucs for future considerations.

But who knows? Should he turn it around, he would be far from the first player to go to new team and find success, so for the light price that it cost the Buccos, it’s worth the chance.

Welcome to the club, Robert!

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The Minnesota Twins and Chicago Cubs begin a three-game set tonight, with Chicago's offense looking to take advantage of Bailey Ober's road struggles. 

My Twins vs Cubs predictions and MLB picks are eyeing the hosts to take the series opener behind a solid outing from Colin Rea. 

Who will win Twins vs Cubs today: Cubs moneyline (-133)

The Chicago Cubs will face Minnesota Twins right-hander Bailey Ober in the series opener. He's made just one start since late May, but Ober's numbers on the road are alarming.

Away from Target Field, the 31-year-old owns a 7.11 FIP. That's compared to a 3.76 mark at home. 

As for Colin Rea, he's posted a respectable 4.45 FIP across his last four starts while surrendering just 0.87 HR/9. He's also held opponents to a 36.9% hard-hit rate during that span. 

Neither starter is absolutely lights out right now, but Ober's poor away form presents an opportunity for the Cubbies to score runs.

After all, their wRC+ sits at 120 at home compared to 99 on the road. 

I'll play this pick up to -150. 

COVERS INTEL: Ober has allowed 2.92 HR/9 on the road compared to just 0.96 at Target Field. 

Twins vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Under 10.5 runs (+109)

Tonight's game has an incredibly high total of 10.5 runs, and there’s still a path to the Under.

While Ober may give up his share of damage, the Twins bullpen has been solid lately, owning a 3.49 FIP over the last two weeks while surrendering just 0.64 HR/9.

Chicago's relief corps is the concern, posting a 5.74 FIP during that span while struggling with home runs. However, Rea typically works into at least the fifth, which should limit how early the Cubs need to lean on that group.

Both offenses are in good form, but 10.5 is still too high for me.

I'll play this pick up to -110.

Twins vs Cubs weather

Conditions will be warm at Wrigley Field tonight, with temperatures around 87 degrees at first pitch before falling into the low 80s. Winds sit around 9 mph throughout the game, while rain chances drop from 24% to 11%. Warm air could help carry slightly, but weather shouldn’t create a major edge overall.

Twins vs Cubs odds

• Moneyline: Twins +127 | Cubs -133
• Run line: Twins +1.5 (-150) | Cubs -1.5 (+144)
• Over/Under: Over 10.5 (-122) | Under 10.5 (+113)

Twins vs Cubs trend

The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.30 Units / 34% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Cubs.

How to watch Twins vs Cubs and game info

Twins vs Cubs latest injuries

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When the Nats traded for Harry Ford this offseason, the expectation was that he would be in the big leagues before July 17th. However, due to Keibert Ruiz’s resurgence and his own uneven performances, he has had to wait. With Drew Millas going down though, Ford will be getting the call.

It has been an interesting 2026 to say the least for the 23 year old catcher. After the Nats acquired him for Jose A. Ferrer, many including myself thought he would be the starting catcher either at Opening Day or quickly after that. Ford was coming off a great season in AAA where he hit .283 with an .868 OPS. He made his big league debut and even made the playoff roster last year.

However, with Cal Raleigh entrenched in the catcher spot long term, Ford became trade bait. It seemed like a great pickup when the Nats acquired Ford. The results this year have not been amazing, though they are trending in the right direction. For the season, Ford is hitting .223 with a .705 OPS that is mainly driven by his ability to draw walks. 

Those numbers don’t exactly scream big league call up, but Ford has been getting better every month. He was 0 for 7 in March and then posted a dreadful .531 OPS in April. However, as the weather has warmed up in Rochester, so has Ford. He had a .716 OPS in May, an .841 in June and a 1.028 so far in July. Since May 1st, Ford has an .817 OPS.

As you can see from this graph, Ford’s super power is his swing decisions. He rarely ever leaves the zone, which provides pitchers with real challenges, especially if they struggle with command. The biggest thing Ford will have to prove in the big leagues is that he can punish pitchers for attacking him in the zone.

This season in AAA, he has not done a great job of that. His exit velocities are down from last year, and so are the power numbers. Ford hit 16 homers in 97 games last year, but only has 4 in 58 this year. Right now his offensive profile is extremely reliant on walks. If he can’t punish mistakes, those walks will be harder to come by in MLB.

It is worth noting that Ford has been showing some more juice lately. He already has a homer and three doubles in 8 July games. The most XBH Ford has had in a month is only five, which he was on pace to easily beat this month. Hopefully that trend can continue as he gets promoted.

I would expect Ford to be matched up a good amount against left handed pitching. On the season, Ford has an .854 OPS against lefties and a .664 mark against righties. This could be a bit of a wonky fit, as Keibert Ruiz has also been better against left handed pitching.  I trust Blake Butera to put these guys in the best positions to succeed. He has been doing that all season with his lineups, and that is unlikely to stop now. 

On the defensive side of the ball, Ford has the tools to be a solid defender, but has been up and down in his career. With Bobby Wilson, who helped fix Keibert Ruiz’s defense, he will have a great catching coach to lean on.

Nats fans should expect a very patient hitter who works good at bats and can run into an occasional homer. Ford does have some strikeouts issues, but they are not out of control. Ideally, Ford will take this chance and run with it, displacing Drew Millas as the Nats second catcher.

Despite an uneven season, the 23 year old still has plenty of upside. He does not project to be a superstar, but Ford could be a starting catcher who gets on base a ton and plays solid defense. I am very curious to get a look at Ford in the big leagues. It has been frustrating to watch Jose A. Ferrer flourish in Seattle while Ford toils away in AAA. Now, we will get to see the impact of that trade at the big league level.

Listen, I know many of you reading this read the title and think you already know the answer.

“No!” is the most likely refrain were I to post somewhere else, looking to spark discussion or creating some kind of snap poll that looked for a majority vote. Based on his performance this year where it matters, I’m not sure that I would blame you. A 6.82 ERA thanks to his allowing 26 runs in 33 innings are not numbers one wants to see from one of it’s supposed high leverage relievers.

Yet I am here to tell you, dear reader…..Jose Alvarado has indeed stunk up the ballpark in 2026. He’s allowing a ton of runs, walking too many hitters and falling behind in too many counts as to make at bats uncompetitive for him before they’ve really even begun. There really is no way to dance around these facts. It leads to the question of, can he and his season be salvaged to let him be something important down the line in the season?

There was a question that was asked of Justin Verlander this All-Star weekend where his answer really interested me.

What Verlander is saying is something we should be thinking more about as the game moves forward. Stuff models are very useful in the modern game as they are the ways pitchers learn new pitches, refine what they have already, basically all the ways they can get better at their craft. His point about hitters being able to tell a pitcher information about his pitches is getting a little lose along the way makes sense and is further broadening the divide between baseball purists and “the nerds”.

Alvarado is a great case here as his under the hood stuff, according to Baseball Savant, his season hasn’t been too bad. Take a quick peek at it and there is a lot of red going on, a good thing for a pitcher to have as it means a lot of what we are looking for in pitcher effectiveness is in the top percentiles.

He’s doing a lot of things the team wants him to do well, he’s just not seeing the results in the counting stats we see on a scoreboard. Looking at if from a subjective point of view, it’s something that everyone can see plain as day, that he is giving up a ton of runs in a few innings. Whatever trust there was to bring him into high leverage situations seems to be evaporating quickly. Which begs the question: why does the team continue to put him into high leverage situations? Is his stuff that good that he continues to warrant looks in those situations?

It really does depend on what you think of how people evaluate “stuff”. Fangraphs takes Stuff+ for each pitcher and ranks them for each pitch they throw. If we narrow the leaderboards to 20 innings pitched to make sure that Alvarado is included, he has some of the best pitches in the game:

• sinker: 120 Stuff+ (t-15th among 339 pitchers that have thrown the pitch)
• curveball: 147 Stuff+ (2nd among 208 pitchers that have thrown the pitch)
• cutter: 115 Stuff+ (6th among 203 pitchers that have thrown the pitch)

From this model, Alvarado has some of the best stuff in the majors as a reliever and is a great choice to be brought into a game when it is tight. Yet, how can he be so bad when his stuff is this good? This is where the hitters telling a pitcher if his pitch is any good comes into play. Hitters this season have a .481 slugging percentage against his sinker and a . 444 slugging against the cutter. They are simply hammering the good stuff he is pitching with. This is backed up by his Location+ number, especially for the sinker.

• sinker: 93 Location+ (t-244th among 339 pitchers that have thrown the pitch)
• curveball: 66 Location+ (200th among 208 pitchers that have thrown the pitch)
• cutter: 101 Location+ (108th among 203 pitchers that have thrown the pitch)

The location he has with his pitches is simply horrendous, which leads to hitters being able to hit the ball better, which leads to worse results no matter how good your stuff is according to the pitch models. Until Alvarado can start to locate his stuff better, he’s going to continue getting hit hard. So there’s no hope in his being able to turn it around, right?

Not necessarily.

There is also the argument for Alvarado being unlucky, an argument that can be made by looking at his BABIP. That number right now is an unsightly .440, twenty-three points higher than the next closest pitcher according to Fangraphs. When I first looked at that, it seemed abnormally high, even for a team with the defense the Phillies currently has. If you wanted to know if that was unprecedented or not, using Stathead, I looked up how many pitchers have had a BABIP of .425 or higher and thrown at least thirty innings as a reliever only in a season over the past forty years.

There are four.

And Alvarado has the highest BABIP of them quartet.

It doesn’t help that he has that pretty terrible defense behind him, which has to be taken into account a bit when considering that number, but there is an amount of unlucky-ness that occurring when he is on the mound that is leading to the results he has. You can see it in the quality of contact he has running with.

Listen, Alvarado has not been very good this season. Using “bad” might be a little strong in arguing about it, but I wouldn’t argue too much were you to go that route. However, I’d also ask that we pause before writing him totally off for the season. Alvarado is working with some good stuff as we can see based on different pitch models. That’s a great foundation from which to be a reliever. Where he’s throwing it needs work, an issue that has dogged Alvarado his whole career. If he’s able to reign in the command even a bit the rest of the way, there is the chance that either he starts getting a little luckier with balls put in play, or he’s able to strike hitters out a little more often and not have to involve his defense as much.

Can he be salvaged? Sure.

It’ll all depend on him.

Welcome to the second half. The Red Sox are 46-48 after a nine-game winning streak to close out the first part of the season. Now the team races towards the trade deadline with eyes on being buyers rather than sellers.

Willson Contreras doesn’t’ want to leave.

So it’ll be up to him, Sonny Gray, Aroldis Chapman and the rest of the team to really force Craig Breslow’s hand. This was, after all, the original plan entering the season. To compete. To win. To reach October.

After running wild in April and May, the Rays fell back to earth with a .500 June – including a 3-game sweep of the Sox – but are 7-5 so far in July.

Griffin Jax started one of those games in June and went 4.0 innings while allowing 3 runs (2 earned). That was his season high at the time but he’s since made nine starts of at least 5.0 innings including one 6.0 inning appearance. He’s not going deep in terms of pitch counts. just innings. Over 6.0 he just 71 pitches. In recent 5.0 inning starts he’s used as many at 88 but as few as 69. They’re clearly working him along in s specific way. Jake Bennett is coming off an excellent start against the Chicago White Sox. 7.0 shutout innings with 4 strikeouts and 1 walk? Can’t ask for more.

Game two doesn’t have announced starters yet, which leans towards the Sox pushing Payton Tolle into the next series to give him some extra rest. Eduardo Rivera and Brayan Bello are both available though…that just worked well against the Mets. Not that the Rays up the LOLMets.

The Ian Seymour experiment hasn’t gone as well as Jax. He was a pure reliever, then did some opening, and now has made three straight starts. The last was against the Seattle Mariners where he allowed 6 wins in 3.1 innings. His start against Boston was 4.0 innings and he allowed a single run: a homer by Marcelo Mayer. Patrick Sandoval is making his second start for the Red Sox. His first in two years was solid enough: 4.1 innings, 1 run, 5 Ks. With Ranger Suarez on the IL a few more days at least, Sandoval arrived at the right time.

Shane McClanahan is also back from a long absence for 2026. But he’s 17 starts into his return. The Sox missed him the last time. He held the Yankees scoreless over 6.1 last time out. And didn’t allow a run to KC the previous start. Sonny Gray is coming off a restful All-Star Break as he didn’t get selected for the game itself. He’s taking all comers ans shutting down their offenses. He’s been every bit the number two Breslow promised.

Junior Caminero was hit in the hand during the All-Star Game and could be out? He’s having a terrific year: 28 homers so far.

Chandler Simpson has 22 steals and has been caught 11 times, which leads the league.

Jonathan Aranda is posting a .394 OBP.

Yandy Diaz leads baseball with 11 hits.

Probable Pitching Matchups

Friday, July 17: Griffin Jax (2.61 ERA / 4.42 FIP) vs. Jake Bennett (2.64 ERA /3.02 FIP)

Friday, July 17: TBD (—ERA / — FIP) vs. TBD (— ERA /— FIP)

Saturday, July 18: Ian Seymour (4.59 ERA / 4.09 FIP) vs. Patrick Sandoval (2.08 ERA / 1.49 FIP)

Sunday, July 19: Shane McClanahan (2.83 ERA / 3.15 FIP) vs. Sonny Gray (2.54 ERA / 3.53 FIP)

When/Where to Watch

Friday, July 17: 1:35 PM ET on NESN

Friday, July 17: 7:10 PM ET on NESN

Saturday, July 18: 4:10 PM ET on NESN

Sunday, July 19: 1:35 PM ET on NESN