Worldwide Sports News

The Twins welcomed the Dodgers and the Rockies to Target Field this past week, and it went pretty much how any fan would have expected. The Twins had some of the highest-attended games, with a sellout crowd on Wednesday of 39,853 to watch Shohei Ohtani duel Joe Ryan. Ironically, the team was woefully unprepared for the number of fans who showed up, with lines of people waiting outside until about the 3rd inning to get into the stadium (Source: me). That game was the final loss in a three-game sweep, despite the Twins tagging Ohtani for two runs early in the start. The Rockies then arrived over the weekend, which included a Ludacris postgame concert, and the Twins were able to get a 2-1 series win. The team is now 40-45, still only two games out of the final wild card spot.

The Past Week on Twinkie Town:

• Check out The Feed, where you can add your discussions about the Twins!
• We’re starting a new segment called Daily Questions! Provide your opinion on the Twins and debate with the community!
• Game threads and recaps are back! Commiserate with your fellow fans as we experience the season together.
• Zach Koenig looks back at June 2006 and the resurgent Twins after a certain lefty starter made his way to the majors.
• Aidan Thomas explains why Walker Jenkins is an exciting prospect.

Elsewhere in Twins Territory:

• Cody Christie at Twins Daily checks in on the Twins’ attendance numbers this season – and why things are not looking good for the team.
• LaVelle E. Neal III at the Star Tribune recaps rookie Connor Preliepp’s excellent start on Sunday.
• Theo Tollefson at Zone Coverage looks at how Andrew Morris has grown this season, especially after settling into a new role in the bullpen.
• Dan Hayes at The Athletic discusses Marco Raya’s development in St. Paul this season, leading to his promotion to the big leagues last week.

In the World of Baseball:

• The Rays and Yankees are still battling for the top spot in the AL, with the Rays holding onto a one-game lead. The White Sox and the Guardians are now tied for the AL Central lead, although the White Sox have played two fewer games, while the Rangers have now managed to leap frog the Mariners and lead the AL West by half a game.
• The Dodgers took full advantage of their series against the Twins by jumping out to a 2.5-game lead over…the Brewers? Yup, Atlanta dropped a few additional games last week, and now what seemed like a pretty big lead in the NL East has now come down to three games over the Philles (remember when they sucked?). The Cubs and Cardinals round out teams #5 and #6 in the NL Wild Card race.
• There were several firings last week, with the Mets letting go of manager Carlos Mendoza and the Angels parting ways with GM Perry Minasian.
• David Purdum and Jeff Passan at ESPN reported on a new proposal introduced by the MLBPA in recent CBA discussions, which would ban prop betting on individual players.
• Jesse Rogers at ESPN covers the new proposal from the owners that would limit contract length for free agents.
• MLB owners recently proposed a dramatic change to how the amateur draft would work, restricting eligibility to players who are 20 years old and two years out of high school. Michael Baumann at Fangraphs looks at the implications of that change.

You stand alone in front of the growing crowd, their collective voices rising in a crescendo, feeding off of one another. 

“Piggyback!” yells one.

“Piggybackburner!” yells another.

“Dan’s in way over his head!” someone hollers, and then your body jolts back as the force of a ferry boat’s worth of garlic fries pummels your front.

“Fire the hitting coaches!”

“No! Fire the whole Front Office!”

That last one is accompanied by a splash, as seemingly-coordinated cups of beer are hurled at you from multiple directions.

“The bullpen sucks!”

“The offense sucks more!”

“It’s the Mariners – everything about them is bad and they always will be!”

You begin to be pummeled with small, stuffed versions of Humpy. It doesn’t seem too bad at first, but there are so many of them that they start to subsume the stage. You lose your balance and fall over, and before you can lift yourself up there are Humpys heaped all over you, weighing down your body and muffling your face. Your breathing grows shallow.

Off to the side, down a step and shrouded behind the curtain, someone cups their hand over their mouth and whisper-shouts “It’s okay! Their division is still really bad, and they’ve been hurt, and they have one of the lowest BABIPs in the league. Plus, they play the Angels this week!”

I do not say this lightly, but thank goodness for the Angels. They’ve recently jettisoned former GM Perry Minasian (unrelated to this author), but it seems unlikely that any true franchise change will happen while Arte Moreno still rules with his lumpy little fist. Based only on the small mercies of the Midwest, they are not the worst team in the American League, but they’ve been flirting with the title all season.

Mike Trout had a torrid start to the season, but will miss the Mariners this series due to a hamstring strain that put him on the IL back on June 18. Zach Neto continues to be deeply annoying and productive, and then there’s…uh, well…you can see the chart. I think that’s probably enough for everyone.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

From a previous series preview:

Ryan Johnson is a perfect encapsulation of everything wrong with the Angels current player development philosophy. He was drafted in the second round in 2024 after dominating in college ball at Dallas Baptist. He made the Opening Day roster in 2025 as a reliever, skipping the minor leagues entirely. After a month and a half and a 7.36 ERA, the Angels pulled the plug and sent him to High-A to continue his development as a starter. He made 12 starts in the minors and looked really good. Fast forward a year and Johnson had a solid, but not outstanding, spring training and Los Angeles opted to start the season with Johnson on the big league roster again. His first start of the season did not go well; he lasted just 3.1 innings against the Cubs, allowing six runs on seven hits and four walks while striking out just two. It’s really too bad because Johnson has a really intriguing profile, and obviously has some raw talent, but the games the Angels have played with his development pathway have really hurt his ability to grow.

Johnson didn’t actually make his scheduled start against the Mariners back in early April — he was placed on the IL and missed his turn in the rotation. The Angels still haven’t committed to a development plan for him either. He made three appearances out of the bullpen once he returned from his IL stint but the team sent him back to the minors to get stretched out as a starter again. 

José Soriano is a weird pitcher. He throws extremely hard, he has three pitches with elite whiff rates, and his groundball rate is among the highest in baseball. Last year, his ERA outpaced his FIP by more than half a run. This year, the script is flipped; his ERA is nearly a full run lower than his FIP. Maybe he read my profile of his issues from last summer because, all of a sudden, he’s striking out a bunch more batters. He’s reduced the usage of his sinker in favor of his four-seamer and splitter, but his command hasn’t improved with the pitch mix change. The result is more punchouts, but also a lower groundball rate, a high walk rate, and more damage on contact allowed.

If you were just loosely throwing out comps for Walbert Ureña, José Soriano would be pretty high on the list. Like his teammate, Ureña throws really hard, relies on a sinker to generate groundball contact, has two pitches with high whiff rates but a low-ish strikeout rate, and doesn’t have great command of his arsenal. He’s just 22 with four years of professional experience under his belt, he’s still learning the ins and outs of pitching and his raw stuff is still a work in progress. He’s made some big strides forward this year and has quickly earned a solidified role in the Angels rotation. 

The Big Picture:

They should be better than this, but so far they haven’t been. In some ways, it’s a relief that they’ve fallen out of first place, because it does at least reflect their actual performance and overall vibes right now. Perhaps it’s old-fashioned of me, but I don’t think teams playing under .500 ball should get to win their divisions. The Rangers and Astros each embark on their own Midwestern ramble, playing the Guardians and Twins, respectively, while the Athletics begin an NL onslaught with three games against the Dodgers.

As the calendar prepares to roll over to July, it is officially time to start diving into trade rumors and focusing some energy on how to fortify the roster. Before the season began, and after the “hot” stove this past winter, the Yankees front office repeatedly pushed the narrative that they approached last year’s trade deadline looking not only to add the missing pieces for the 2025 club that fell short of a championship, but also to build the foundation for this year’s roster.

Soon we will find out what Brian Cashman makes of this edition of the team after another half season of data. Predicting trades is always just a best guess because so many factors go into the equation, none more important than the fact that we have no idea how other executives truly value the Yankees’ prospects. Making a deal involves finding a dance partner who not only fits your needs, but also likes what you have to bring to the table. So without getting to far into the weeds, what will the Yankees’ priorities be at this upcoming trade deadline?

Before taking a deep dive into splits, performances to date, and how those data points compare to league averages, a few things stand out to the naked eye. The first is the Yankees’ depth at starting pitcher.

Max Fried is still on the injured list, but he is making his way back and, knocking on wood, the rest of the rotation has either remained healthy or worked its way back as well. Starting pitching simply does not appear to be a priority. That is not to say the Yankees would not add a starter if the price were right, but it feels much more like a cherry-on-top scenario than an organizational need.

The other thing that stands out is the injured list. Cashman has long believed that getting an injured player back can be just as valuable as making a trade. Using that logic, the Yankees, in addition to a starter in Fried, will eventually be adding a right fielder, a center fielder, and a designated hitter over the course of the summer.

Between that and the inexpensive production they have received from Jasson Domínguez and Spencer Jones as the next men up, the Yankees are probably out of the outfield market unless someone unexpectedly falls into their lap or another injury, or bad recovery news, changes the equation.

It should also be assumed that most positions addressed either at last year’s deadline or this past offseason are viewed as lower priorities. Whether fans agree or not, that likely includes third base with Ryan McMahon and Amed Rosario, and left field with Cody Bellinger. I also have to think the idea of José Caballero spending more time at third base, once some of the banged-up outfielders return, has crossed the minds of the executives making these calls.

So what are the priorities? Diving into the numbers, outside of health, the Yankees currently have two Achilles’ heels: catcher and the bullpen, particularly its effectiveness against left-handed hitters.

Entering Sunday, Yankees catchers owned a .510 OPS. The major league average for catchers sits at .674. I like to think of OPS as the closest thing baseball has to a report card for hitters. Essentially, Yankees catchers are getting about a 51 on the test, while the rest of the league is averaging a D+. Neither of these are great, but if the Yankees could simply get the league average from this spot it would only further aid one of the better offenses in baseball.

Catcher, however, is one of the most difficult positions to address at the trade deadline. Half of the job is handling the pitching staff, so acquiring a catcher assumes he can quickly build chemistry with a new group of pitchers while continuing to produce offensively. It is not easy.

Unless you have been living under a rock, you know the Yankees have been heavily linked to Ryan Jeffers all season long. In this case, many of the concerns about acquiring a catcher are somewhat eased because Jeffers developed under current Yankees catching coach Tanner Swanson. In theory, that familiarity should help smooth the transition, but like an ogre there are extra layers to adding a catcher.

That brings us to the bullpen. As beloved as Tim Hill is, and despite Brent Headrick putting together a career year, the Yankees sit squarely in the middle of the pack when it comes to retiring left-handed hitters once the game reaches the bullpen.

The writing on the wall is that when Fried returns, either Ryan Weathers or Will Warren could move into a relief role. However, neither has been particularly dominant against left-handed hitters this season, allowing OPS figures of .741 and .731, respectively.

Unfortunately, the Yankees also rank among the league leaders in blown saves. Does more need to be said? Then again, when was the last time a legitimate contender did not spend the summer looking for bullpen help? The bullpen is far from bad, but it is clearly an area where an upgrade is both needed and realistically attainable at different cost points each season.

This deadline should be a fascinating one. Will the Yankees push all of their chips into the middle of the table? What would that even look like given the current state of the farm system? My expectation is that Cashman will prioritize a move that addresses the catcher and the bullpen at once or toss several stones at bullpen arms hoping a wide net yields the desired catch. Only time will tell what deals are made and, more importantly, whether those moves ultimately bring the Yankees to the goal of a championship. What do you have as the priority?

The Mets aren't in denial about where they are -- and where they're likely headed.

Following the firing of manager Carlos Mendozathis past Friday, president of baseball operations David Stearns was somber and clear-minded about the potential fate of the 2026 team.

"We all remain very focused on doing everything we can to win as many games as we can this year, while recognizing where we are in the standings," Stearns said Friday afternoon at Citi Field.

The Mets then went out and lost two of three to the Phillies over the weekend, with Sunday's 5-4 defeat being managed more like an audition for Kodai Senga's future than a must-win for a team that is starved for victories. 

Ahead of a seven-game road trip that opens on Monday in Toronto, the Mets are 35-49 and 9.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. They have lost eight of their last 10 games, and would likely need to finish on a 50-28 clip (or better) to have a chance to reach the postseason.

That means that barring a very hot stretch over the next month, the Mets will be selling ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline -- something that felt unfathomable when the season started.

But New York's task likely now becomes deciding just how big their sell-off will be, and how many true keepers they have for 2027 and beyond.

Here's how we would go about things...

KEEPERS

Juan Soto
Francisco Lindor
Carson Benge
A.J. Ewing
Nolan McLean
Christian Scott
Francisco Alvarez
Luis Torrens

There have been some wild suggestions about the future of Soto, who is under contract for the next 13 seasons after this one. But despite how awful the end of last season was and how demoralizing the first half of this season has been for the Mets, there is no reason for them to even begin to think about trading Soto -- a 27-year-old hitting savant who is leading the NL in OPS. 

Lindor, who did not seem off-limits this past offseason, has finished in the top-10 in MVP voting each of the last four seasons, plays through discomfort, is always accountable, and is one of the things that is actually good about this team.  

The rookies Benge and Ewing, who have established themselves as possible difference-makers on both sides of the ball, are obvious keepers. As are McLean and Scott.

There is sure to be some consternation regarding Alvarez's inclusion here, but he's been above average offensively over the last three seasons (108 OPS+) and has plus power. Perhaps his future is as someone who is the designated hitter five times a week and catches twice, but he should be part of the plan.

The same goes for Torrens, who recently signed an extension and is one of the best defensive catchers in baseball.

AVAILABLE

Freddy Peralta
Luis Robert Jr.
A.J. Minter
Brooks Raley
Tyrone Taylor

The five players above are all set for free agency after the season, meaning they will all certainly be very available.

Peralta has struggled this season, which could impact the return, but he has a history of pitching near the top of a rotation. Beyond that, the Mets just got a legitimate prospect from the Cubs for David Peterson (who had an ERA above 6.00 when he was traded), meaning New York should be able to pry something of serious value from a pitching-needy team in exchange for Peralta.

Robert is a tricky one, since he is still rehabbing his back injury. But if he makes it back in time, he could be of interest to a team searching for a plus defensive center fielder with pop. There is close to zero shot the Mets will exercise their team option on Robert for 2027, which should make this an easy call for them.

Minter and Raley have both been terrific this season, and should net relatively strong returns in a market that has 22 teams at various levels of contention.

SEE IF SOMEONE BITES

Brett Baty
Mark Vientos
Huascar Brazoban

Baty has had a very disappointing season after posting a career-best .748 OPS in 2025. He carried a .589 OPS and just three homers into play on Monday. And given that this is his fifth year in the majors, it feels like his chance to prove he's part of the Mets' future as a lineup regular is nearing its end. If he sticks around, Baty could fit as a versatile bat off the bench in 2027.

Vientos has a .680 OPS over the last two seasons, and has not been able find any consistency (his OBP this season is .253). Add to that his defensive shortcomings and the presence of Jorge Polanco (who is under contract through 2027 and is best-suited as a DH), and it makes sense to see if there's interest in Vientos.

As far as Brazoban, the Mets should try to capitalize on his impressive season. If the offers aren't to their liking, they can simply keep Brazoban -- who is under team control through 2029.

VERY HARD TO MOVE

Sean Manaea
Kodai Senga
Jorge Polanco
Marcus Semien

Manaea (owed $19.2 million for 2027), Senga (owed $15 million), and Polanco (owed $23 million) will all be entering the final guaranteed year of their respective deals next season, but they'll be close to impossible to move.

Manaea has showed flashes lately, but likely not enough to garner interest. Senga has been moved to the bullpen, and Polanco hasn't played since the middle of April.

Semien is under contract through 2028, and was ineffective offensively and defensively (.612 OPS, -5 OAA) before landing on the IL with a hip injury.

Aside from Polanco, who could be a legitimate DH option if he's healthy, the Mets are probably going to have tough decisions to make about these players when it comes to their expected contributions next season.

THE COMPLICATED CASES

Bo Bichette
Clay Holmes
Luke Weaver
Devin Williams

If Bichette is planning to opt out of his three-year deal after this season, it would be a no-brainer for the Mets to make him available. But even though Bichette has been much better lately (.878 OPS since May 18), his uneven season and uncertain future could make a trade difficult to pull off.

When it comes to Holmes, who is working his way back from a freak leg injury, it seems all but certain he'll decline the $12 million player option he has for 2027. If I'm the Mets, I approach him now with an extension offer. If those talks don't progress, make him available.

Weaver, who is under contract through 2027, has been a revelation this season and is comfortable in the New York market. The Mets should only trade him if they're overwhelmed by an offer.

The same goes for Williams, who is signed through 2028. His performance this year (Williams' 2.81 FIP is much more indicative of how he's looked than his 4.28 ERA) has been largely dominant since April 26 -- 2.21 ERA in 20.1 innings.

Major League Baseball and the MLB Players’ Union have been releasing some proposals for the new collective bargaining agreement, as the old one is set to expire following this season. The proposals have been extreme and unlikely to end up in the new CBA, but a recent idea could end up impacting college baseball in a positive way, in the unlikely scenario it makes it in the final cut.

Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that MLB owners want to disallow high school players from being eligible for the MLB draft, among other things, outside the purpose of this discussion. They write:

High school players would be ineligible for the domestic draft and need to be at least two years removed from graduation to be selected

The domestic draft, currently 20 rounds, and international draft both would last 12 rounds

College baseball, which MLB in a statement called “an increasingly important pathway,” would receive an influx of high-end talent annually and serve as a mandatory stop in the domestic development pipeline

The proposal itself is pretty straightforward. All high school players need to wait at least two years to be drafted by MLB teams. This will result in most of those players attending college or junior college, although perhaps some will go to play somewhere internationally. However, if the NBA is any indication, that will be more the exception rather than the rule. Also of note, with a smaller draft, fewer players will be selected, which means players who were projected to go in the back half of the draft will opt to remain in school to continue their baseball careers. They wrap it all up by summarizing that the college level will become mandatory and increase the talent pool for those programs.

That selfish decision by MLB owners is obviously where college baseball programs can benefit.

With more talented high school players attending college to play baseball, the overall talent pool of college baseball gets better. Similar to football and basketball, the top programs will benefit the most, with the rest of the talent trickling down, but it should benefit everyone.

Teams like Oregon State will still secure many of the top players out west. However, the higher the number of great players available, the more likely it is that more of them will come to programs such as San Diego State, Nevada, or Grand Canyon. It could bring the overall level of talent up in the Mountain West or Pac-12 conference.

While it’s true that if the entire D1 talent pool increases for baseball, then the gap between top programs and mid-majors will still remain. That being said, if the mid-major programs get talented players who aren’t the stars, the ones who are often going to college out of high school regardless, they may be less likely to get drafted in this proposed system. Or at the very least, less likely to get drafted until their junior or senior seasons. If those players use most of their college eligibility, it could lead to better teams and better competition in the Mountain West and Pac-12.

Again, there is no sense dwelling on this because of how unlikely it is to happen. But what would end up being a loss for minor league baseball could end up as a significant win for the mid-major college baseball programs out west.

The Phillies took care of business against the Mets. By taking care of business, they just kind of got out of the Mets’ way and let them find ways to lose, but a win is a win, and the Phillies won two games in a stadium where they don’t often do so. Now, they’ll return home to face a Pirates team that got off to a good start, but has a losing record in June and is now down to a .500 record.

Opposition research: Brandon Lowe

Brandon Lowe’s career got off to a great start. As a rookie with the Rays, he made the All-Star team and finished third in Rookie of the Year voting. The next two years, he was in the top 10 of AL MVP voting, including a 39-home run season in 2021.

But he never took the next step to superstardom, and settled in as a good, but not great player. He’ll hit 20+ home runs every season (31 in 2025) but an unexceptional on-base percentage, and increasingly poor defense at second base made the Rays deem him expendable. He was part of a three-team trade this offseason, and started the season as the Pirates’ second baseman.

The change of scenery has seemed to agree with him. He’s already hit 20 home runs, and his defense has graded out much better.

It’s possible that he makes his second All-Star team, although Phillies fans can help prevent that if they stuff the ballot box for Bryson Stott.

He’s going to be a free agent at season’s end, meaning the Pirates have a decision to make. It seems dangerous for a team with such a limited payroll to commit to a guy having a career best season at age 31.

Remembering a guy who played for the Pirates and Phillies

Andy Van Slyke is best remembered for his time with the Pirates. In eight seasons with the team, he made three All-Star games, two Silver Slugger awards, and five Gold Gloves in center field. After 1994, with Van Slyke seemingly in decline, the Pirates allowed him to leave as a free agent.

He signed with the Orioles for the 1995 season, but struggled, batting .159 in 17 games. The Phillies, needing outfield help, traded for him, putting him in center field, and shifting Lenny Dykstra to left.

Van Slyke had a successful debut with the Phillies, hitting a home run in a win over the Mets. Unfortunately, he then got injured in his second game and ended up missing almost a month. He struggled greatly after his return, and ended up batting just .243 in 63 games as the Phillies had an awful second half of the season.

Hating on the Pirates

Why hate on the Pirates when team ownership does such a good job of it themselves? They run the team like a minor league franchise, and it feels like a matter of when, not if, that Paul Skenes is pitching somewhere else.

They pick near the top of the draft just about every year, but very few blue-chip talents ever seem to reach the major league team. They already handed a bag to prospect Konnor Griffin and based on how the past few decades have gone for the Pirates, it seems just as likely that he’ll go the way of Scott Kingery.

Additional thought about the series

Wednesday’s pitching matchup of Zack Wheeler vs. Skenes is a great one on paper, although the earlier matchup between the two didn’t turn out to be much of a pitchers’ duel. Wheeler was terrific, throwing seven shutout innings, but Skenes was clearly not at his best, giving up five runs in five innings.

Somehow, the Pirates are still using Gregory Soto as their closer. He has four blown saves on the season, including one against the Phillies. Last time, I predicted that he’d blow one, and really, it wasn’t that difficult of a prediction. In a four-game series, it feels like he’s got another bad outing in him.

We have the latest round of results from MLB Reacts. The first question has to do with which division leader needs to have the most urgency at the deadline:

Since this poll went out, the Yankees have been surpassed in the American League East by the Tampa Bay Rays, the Mariners are now a half game back of the Rangers for first in the American League West, and the Guardians are tied with the Chicago White Sox for first in the A.L. Central.

In a vote of which contenders need to have the most urgency, Cleveland is not included, and so Seattle takes the top spot.

The Home Run Derby has gone to a “number of swings” system, which the majority of respondents think is a good thing:

And when asked which accomplishment they’d most like to see in person, watching a no-hitter was the clear favorite over the rest of the field:

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Our MLB expert picks for Monday, June 29 feature two plus-money plays!

See why the Cubs should beat the Padres in a rout, and why the total is too tall in a Golden State showdown tonight.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Neil Parker: CHC -1.5	+129
Joe Osborne: LAD/ATH u10.5	+100

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Neil Parker's expert pick: Cubs -1.5

Price: 44¢ (+129) at Polymarket

The wind is forecast to be blistering out at Wrigley Field, and the Chicago Cubs have paced the majors with 6.6 runs per game during their 12-4 heater while also ranking fourth in wOBA and seventh in xwOBA.

So, with the San Diego Padres sending righty Griffin Canning to the bump tonight, I’m anticipating another big night from the Chicago lineup.

Canning has surrendered a 52.1% hard-hit rate, which is tied for the lowest mark in the majors among pitchers with 40 innings, after all.

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Padres.TV, MARQ

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Dodgers vs A's Under 10.5

Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket

Eric Lauer has settled nicely into the Los Angeles Dodgers rotation, posting a 2.82 ERA in four appearances since coming over from Toronto. He's catching the Athletics at the right time, as they rank 27th in OPS over the past week.

On the other side, Gage Jump looks like a future ace, carrying a 2.04 ERA through six starts while coming off back-to-back scoreless outings. All six of his starts have resulted in the game total going Under.

The rookie draws a Dodgers lineup that's been shockingly bad against left-handed pitching, ranking 23rd vs. southpaws over the past month.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: SNLA, NBCSCA

More MLB best bets for today

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The New York Yankees are -133 home favorites against the Detroit Tigers on Monday night, but my Tigers vs. Yankeespredictions are taking the better starter at a plus-money price.

Read on for my free MLB picks for June 29.

Who will win Tigers vs Yankees today: Tigers moneyline (+119)

Despite nearly pulling off a dramatic late comeback last night, it's hard to back the New York Yankees right now.

Their offense is anemic, and the pitching hasn’t been great. I'm backing the Detroit Tigers tonight and would play them to -110.

Casey Mize gives Detroit the pitching edge over Ryan Weathers. Mize’s 3.16 xERA, .225 xBA allowed, and 36.1% hard-hit rate match up well against a Yankees lineup hitting .190 over its last 11 games.

Weathers may generate more swings-and-misses, but his 4.50 xERA, .459 xSLG allowed, and 11.7% barrel rateincrease damage risk.

COVERS INTEL:Mize has allowed a .279 expected wOBA, well below the MLB average of .316.

Tigers vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 8 (-115)

I’m playing the Under because the Yankees’ season-long run production is not matching their current form.

The Bronx Bombers nearly got no-hit last night in the midst of a sweep by the Red Sox, scoring just nine runs in four games while consistently leaving runners stranded.

Detroit has not been much cleaner, going 3-for-21 with runners in scoring position over its past two games.

Weathers is the risk because he gives up barrels, but Mize can suppress the better offense long enough to keep this game inside 8. My model makes this closer to 7.4 runs.

Tigers vs Yankees weather

The warm, 81-degree weather makes hitting conditions somewhat favorable, but there's little wind to speak of, and it's blowing right-to-left.

Tigers vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Tigers +120 | Yankees -133
• Run line: Tigers +1.5 | Yankees -15
• Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8

Tigers vs Yankees trend

The Tigers have hit the F5 moneyline in 17 of their last 30 games (+8.40 Units / 22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Yankees.

How to watch Tigers vs Yankees and game info

Tigers vs Yankees latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

After Luis Garcia Jr. had what seemed like a breakout season in 2024, where he posted a 110 wRC+ and played above average defense at second base for the first time in his career, resulting in a 3.0 fWAR year, his numbers came crashing back down to Earth in 2025, posting a 91 wRC+ and playing subpar defense at second base, resulting in 0.7 fWAR over the full season. Entering 2026, his 7th season in the big leagues, many fans hoped he could at least come close to recreating the magic he had in 2024, or else his future with the Nats was in question with a new front office in town.

Things didn’t click for Garcia Jr. right away this season, as he posted a 76 wRC+ through March and April while struggling at his new home defensively, first base. Some frustrated fans, including myself, called for him to either be benched or DFA’ed, believing there were options in Triple-A for the Nats who could provide more value than Garcia Jr. was. Things started to click, however, in May for him, posting a strong 123 wRC+ and hitting 4 home runs, and he has gone ballistic in June, with a staggering 207 wRC+ and 11 home runs for the month.

So here we are in late June, and Luis Garcia Jr. has a 131 wRC+, the 33rd highest in all of baseball, 10th highest amongst first basemen, and 3rd highest on the Nats, behind only James Wood (143) and CJ Abrams (138), whom he has become within range of passing soon. How has Luis Garcia Jr. found another gear offensively in his 7th season in the major leagues? By not centering his game around hiding his weaknesses, but around exemplifying his strengths.

Luis Garcia Jr. has, and likely will always be, a chase hitter, running a below-average chase rate his entire career, often in the bottom 10th percentile among all big league hitters. Counter to what you may expect, however, some of the best seasons of Garcia Jr’s career have come when his chase rate is at its highest, with a 9th percentile chase rate during his breakout 2024 campaign and a 6th percentile chase rate this season.

Garcia Jr’s chase rate has risen 3% from 2025 to 2026, and his walk rate is a 4th percentile 4.1%, but what he is doing is swinging the bat harder, with his average bat speed rising 1 MPH, hitting the ball harder, with a 91st percentile average exit velocity of 92.4 MPH, and lifting the ball more than ever, with his average launch angle rising from 9.2 to 11.6. Rather than trying to plug one of the holes in his game, and hurting his skillset as a result, Garcia Jr. has made swinging hard and doing damage to the pull side his focus in 2026, and it is paying off in the form of a career year.

So what is the next step for Luis Garcia Jr.? Offensively, if there is a way for him to draw more walks while still providing the same power output he is currently, that would be ideal, but I wouldn’t dare mess with what he has going on right now. Defensively, Garcia Jr. has work to do at first base, as his -4 OAA ranks in the 13th percentile among all first basemen, and getting to even league average would help out both the Nats and Garcia Jr. himself tremendously.

With just a year and a half of service time remaining, Garcia Jr. may be a trade piece for Paul Toboni and the front office if they decide selling is best for the future this trade deadline. If we’re nearing the end of his tenure as a Nat, it has been a pleasure to see him develop and grow, from when he was a fresh-faced 20-year-old debuting in front of zero fans in 2020, to a slugging first baseman on the best Nationals club of his big league career. Whether he’s a Nat or not moving forward, he will be a player I look back on fondly when I look back on the 2020s as a decade for the Washington Nationals.