SAN DIEGO – The San Diego Padres may catch waves on the beach in their free time, down some fresh home-made margaritas in Old Town and watch the sights on the boardwalk, but they’re not naive, and certainly not stupid.
They know what’s up.
They know that they trail the Milwaukee Brewers 2 games to 0 in the best-of-five National League Division series, and the odds are severely stacked against them. Since 1969, only 10 of 93 teams (11%) have lost the first two games and come back to win a best-of-five series. The Padres not only have to win three games in a row, beginning Tuesday, Oct. 6 at Petco Park (9:30 p.m. ET, FS1), but they’re going to have to do it against the same team that won more games than any team in baseball this year.
The Brewers won a franchise-record 103 games this season, including seven victories in a row, and 17 of their last 20. They haven’t lost three games in a row since, well, being swept by these same Padres in August.
So, you’re saying there’s a chance?
This is why the Padres refuse to cower in fear.
This is why they won’t be intimidated.
This is why they won’t back down.
And this is why they still believe.
They won’t need bulletin board material to hype them up, almost laughing at Hall of Famer David Ortiz mocking them on TV saying they are done.
Maybe, the Padres say, Big Papi forgot that he was on that Boston Red Sox team in 2004 that came back from a 3-0 deficit to the New York Yankees, when everyone said they were done, and won the ALCS.
Maybe folks forget that the San Diego Padres were down 2-games-to-0 in the best-of-five NLCS in 1984, losing the first two games in Chicago, and came back to win the National League pennant.
Please, it’s not as miraculous a comeback as if they lost 121 games two years ago, and made the playoffs, like some team they know on the south side of Chicago.
“Listen, man, sports is a crazy game," Padres veteran third baseman Manny Machado said. "A lot of crazy things could happen, especially this time of the year ... It's been done before, '84, Big Papi, right, down 3-0, impossible.
"It's sports, right? It's sports. Anything is possible in this game. You've just got to go out there and leave it on the field, compete. This group has been doing it all year, and we're going to continue to do it. I believe in the group that we have in there. They're a resilient group that loves to fight, that loves to compete.
“We're going to leave it out there until we can't anymore."
While no one outside the 619 area-code is giving the Padres a shot, few gave them much of a chance to be in the postseason in the first place. They were muddling along with a 50-53 record in mid-summer with a 7.4% chance to make the postseason, according to FanGraphs. Their starting rotation consisted of Michael King, tape, gauze, and different relievers each week. They were fighting for their lives until the final week of the season just to qualify for the postseason.
“Fuel, we knew what type of group we had," Machado said. “We knew what type of baseball we were playing, which was not great, but we knew we were better than that. The outside noise: 'We're not going to make it. You’re not going to do this. The Padres suck.’ …It's been all year from everyone.
“We knew that was all fake and not reality. As a group, we just took that to fuel, and we ran with it, and we got better. We performed. We stepped up, and here we are today. It's nothing different.’’
The Padres will turn to veteran Nick Pivetta, whose season looked as if it would be over in mid-April when he went down with a right elbow flexor strain, but he came back in August, and will be making his sixth start Tuesday to save their season. He hasn’t gone longer than five innings, and lasted just 3 1/3 innings in his postseason start against the Chicago Cubs, but relishes the opportunity.
“I think if you look back at it, when I was really grinding on my rehab process and wondering if I was going to be able to pitch again this year," Pivetta said, “I look forward to these moments. I'm very grateful to be able to be the pitcher out there, to do this, to start it off...
“I'm never going to shy away from the moment or shy away from what's at stake. Like I said, I'm just grateful to be in these moments, and try to help us accomplish our goal. To be able to pitch in these moments is very special to me."
The Padres could badly use a starter to give their bullpen a breather. They had the day off Monday, but still, their heavy workload has worn them down. It was left-handed reliever Adrian Morjeon, perhaps the best left-hander in the game, who coughed up a game-winning homer to William Contreras in the seventh inning of Game 1. And it was Mason Miller, perhaps the best closer in the business, who blew the save in the ninth inning of Game 2 on Jackson Chourio’s two-out, two-strike, two-run single, while trying to record a six-out save for only the third time this season. Miller was left in to throw a season-high 40 pitches.
“I never second-guess myself," Stammen said. “That's for everybody else to do."
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The rookie manager has been second-guessed most of the season when they were battling for their lives, so it’s nothing new. Besides, every time the Padres were counted down and out, they kept battling back, a trait that has defined the Padres’ character.
“We've been resilient all year," Stammen said. “We've had our backs against the wall several times. Players individually have had their backs against the wall. For us, it's just another day in Padres Land.
“But it’s an exciting challenge.’’
So, fatigue or not, the Padres aren’t going to change their game-plan now utilizing their high-leverage relievers. They will still count on Morejon for multiple innings. They still might ask Miller to go longer than an inning. It’s October. They’ll have all winter to rest.
And, perhaps one last time Tuesday, the Padres will try to silence the critics who believe it’s impossible to overcome their deficit, and beat the powerful Brewers for a trip to the NLCS.
“Not the ideal position you want to be in," Machado said, “but these boys, this group, we've been up against the wall all year. A lot of people didn't think we would be in this position to begin with, and here we are. We've overcome a lot as a group, and we've learned a lot throughout the season.
“To believe in a group that could overcome this are the 26 guys in there that fought all year to be in this position.’’
The Padres will play hard. They’ll play loud. They’ll have a packed house at Petco Park behind them.
Really, what do they got to lose?
“Here we are once again with our backs against the wall,’’ Machado said. “We've overcome it once, and we can do it again.
“And we are going to do it again."
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Padres believe comeback is still possible despite 2-0 hole vs. Brewers
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