10 takeaways from a messy but controlled win over Portland

Turnovers nearly flipped the script, but Boston’s defensive choices, smart answers to pressure, rookie energy, and late-clock execution were enough to survive a young and aggressive Blazers team.

#1 – Turnovers battle

Going into the game, there was one certainty: this game would be about turnovers and taking care of the ball. While the Boston Celtics are among the very best teams at protecting the basketball, the Portland Trail Blazers are the team with the highest turnover rate in the league.

Nonetheless, they are also very aggressive and have shown throughout the season that they can force teams to lose focus and turn the ball over more often than usual. And that is exactly what happened last night at the TD Garden. The Celtics posted their fourth-worst turnover rate of the season, at 17% – back in December in Portland, they had the same issue with a 19% turnover rate. But this time, they were able to get the W despite their turnover problems.

What helped is that the Celtics also did a very good job of punishing Portland’s inability to protect the ball, forcing 18 turnovers from the young team while allowing only 17 assists. The Celtics’ defense was on point last night, and it all started by daring the Blazers to make their jump shots.

#2 – Making the most of the lack of shooting

Very early in the game, the Celtics decided to live with shooting variance and dare the Blazers to make their shots – or to drive into a crowded paint.

That approach forced a different shot profile than usual for the visitors. Usually, they are among the teams with the highest volume of shots at the rim (34% rim frequency). Yet last night, Boston took the rim away from them, and the Blazers’ lack of shooting made that easier, as they are dead last in three-point percentage at 33.7% since the start of the season.

Overall, this worked out pretty well on the defensive end, with only 94 points allowed, as the Blazers made just 25% of their attempts from deep. On the other side of the court, the defensive coverage was quite different.

#3 – How to deal with aggressive coverage

Similarly to what the Brooklyn Nets tried a few nights ago, Portland chose to be aggressive on the ball-handler in pick-and-roll situations. Often, the goal was to force Jaylen Brown to give up the ball and slow down the offense.

Against such coverage, the Celtics decided to go with Sam Hauser as a screener. This created a trap for the Portland defense because, as they sent two players at the ball-handler, it freed Hauser just a few meters from the ball – and he loves to convert from these situations.

Because of those consequences, the Blazers adjusted. Instead of sending two players straight away, they waited a little before committing the second defender, making the pass to Hauser impossible. And this is where Boston’s team IQ comes in. Because Hauser knows he can reach the ball, he runs to the free-throw line to give Brown an easier pass against the trap.

From that situation, the Celtics create a four-against-three advantage, and that leads to another open shot for Mazzulla’s team.

#4 – Living with the mid-range against the drop

While the Celtics generated great shots against aggressive coverages, I had more mixed feelings about their approach against drop coverage. The Celtics took 26 mid-range shots in the second half of the game and made only eight of them.

Yes, the Celtics like these short and long mid-range zones, but it can be a trap. These shots are less efficient than drives to the rim and do not generate free throws. It also sometimes felt like Portland were dictating where the shots were taken, rather than the opposite.

This, combined with the high number of turnovers, helped the Trail Blazers stick around until the end.

#5 – Rookie push

Yet, despite some trouble on offense, the Celtics could always count on the push from their high-energy rookies. Hugo Gonzalez and Amari Williams brought the juice needed to impact the game on both ends. On this first play, they saved the possession after Jaylen Brown struggled to keep the ball alive.

On the very next possession, they forced a jump ball that was won by JB, allowing Boston to get the ball back quickly.

As usual, Hugo brought the energy on the offensive glass and forced offensive fouls, but Amari also made his mark. On this play, he protected the rim, triggered a transition, ran the floor to offer an option below the rim, and scored the and-one. A five-point swing within a few seconds – instant impact.

But Amari wasn’t the only one who created a five-point swing within a few seconds.

#6 – +5 in the last seconds of quarters

Against an aggressive opponent at the end of the first quarter, Anfernee Simons drove to his right and triggered Toumani Camara’s stunt, leaving Pritchard alone. The help from the corner was too far away to disrupt PP’s quick release, and that was the first buzzer-beater of the night.

Twelve minutes later, Payton hadn’t scored another bucket since his buzzer-beater in the first. With only a few seconds remaining before halftime, he quickly pushed the ball up the floor and didn’t hesitate to drive… almost lost the ball, but secured it just in time to fade away for another buzzer-beater.

A five-point addition in the final seconds of both quarters, in a game decided by fewer than 10 points – a game changer.

#7 – Fighting back in transition

Those buzzers weren’t the only illustration of the Celtics’ willingness to fight for that win last night. While their transition defense can sometimes be sloppy, that wasn’t the case against Portland. The Celtics were able to contain the young team’s desire to run and limited them to just 1.05 points per possession in transition, compared to 1.53 points per transition possession for Boston’s offense.

One of the leaders of that effort was Simons, despite being targeted every time he was on the court.

#8 – Portland attacking Simons

Maybe it was ego, maybe it was tactical, but Simons’ former teammates definitely went after him when he was on the court, especially in the second half with Jerami Grant.

Yet Simons made sure to show his former team that, despite his smaller frame, he is becoming a much better defensive player in Boston. He fought well through screens and did his best to stay in front of his matchup, even against bigger players. In the end, the Trail Blazers scored a few baskets and got to the free-throw line by targeting him, but Simons’ efforts were impressive.

#9 – White saving the day

Despite losing the ball on nine possessions throughout the game, it was Derrick White who saved the day against the Trail Blazers. First, with a three, then after another smart action from Hauser, who asked for the ball at the free-throw line to swing it to White for the dagger.

Then came the steal to seal the deal. Notice how the Celtics’ coaching staff matched him up with Williams, knowing he would be involved in the play, either as a passer or a screener.

#10 – Thank you Jrue

A very well-deserved standing ovation for Jrue Holiday was the least Boston could do to celebrate the man – and the player – that he is. On and off the court, Jrue had a huge impact on the Celtics and was one of the keys to banner 18.

Celtics’ Amari Williams unveiled ‘exceptional’ potential against Trail Blazers

BOSTON — Before Monday night, Celtics rookie Amari Williams had limited NBA minutes to his name, spending most of this year with the team’s G League affiliate in Maine. When the opportunity finally arrived against the Trail Blazers, the 23-year-old made the most of it.

Williams logged a career-high 25:53 minutes in Boston’s 102-94 win over Portland, leaving a strong impression in the process.

“I thought Amari did a great job today,” Jaylen Brown said. “I thought he looked exceptional. He came out, protected the rim, and was where he was supposed to be for the most part. Amari made it easy for us tonight, but any given night — depending on how the team is playing us — that communication has to be great.”

Originally, the Celtics rolled with Neemias Queta at starting center. But coach Joe Mazzulla made the substitution at 7:27 in the first quarter, swapping Queta out for Williams. Two minutes and 38 seconds later, Williams ran a pick-and-roll with Derrick White, cut, and found an easy two-handed dunk without a Trail Blazers defender in sight.

Gradually, through each passing possession, Williams grew more and more comfortable. He attacked the rim, challenged Portland’s Donovan Clingan and Robert Williams III for rebounds, and walked away having nearly notched a double-double, with nine points and seven rebounds. Teammates, both on the floor and watching from the sideline, got a glimpse of what Williams could bring to the table, and they were impressed.

“His rebounding and boxing out, protecting the rim — and we got to use Amari more for his passing ability because he can really pass,” Payton Pritchard said.

Pritchard mentioned that limited practice runs with Williams make it difficult to get him up to speed. That makes his acclimation process a two-way street, as the weight doesn’t lie solely on Williams; it’s also on everyone in the locker room to adapt and help maximize Williams’ usage on the floor. Sometimes that looks like running pick-and-rolls to catch opposing defenses sleeping. Other times, it’s Williams hovering around the paint to generate offensive looks without ever touching the ball.

For someone who hasn’t spent most of the season with the team, it could be overwhelming. The Celtics understand the position that puts Williams in.

“We’re gonna have to learn on the fly when he gets in, but it should be quick,” Pritchard said. “He reads the game really well, so it’ll be fun playing with him.”

Then there’s the coaching factor. For Mazzulla, it comes down to doing what’s best for Williams from a perspective his teammates can’t provide. We’ve seen it at times with fellow rookie Hugo González and veteran Josh Minott. If Mazzulla spots a miscue he deems inexcusable, he’ll hold the Celtics culprit accountable, often with trips to the bench, animated earfuls, or both.

So with Williams, it’s about finding that sweet spot of trusting the process and establishing a standard.

“It’s keeping the patience on the stuff that you have to teach, and losing your patience on the stuff that has to be non-negotiable,” Mazzulla said. “Regardless of whether you’re playing out in the park or playing in the NBA, it shouldn’t matter. It’s just understanding that the differences are in that.”

Balancing those two sides of patience isn’t easy.

“One of the greatest gifts you can give young players is coaching them hard, because you get into a situation where they may not get that all the time,” Mazzulla said. “I think holding them to the highest standard is something they should want. So I don’t know if it’s impatience as much as it’s, ‘Regardless of who you think you are, I still think there’s a standard we can get to, and we’ve got to do it. That’s just how it goes.’”

The way Mazzulla views the team is the same way he views the roster: it’s about getting the most out of everyone, both collectively and individually. That outlook comes with a caveat — if someone isn’t pulling their weight, Mazzulla won’t hesitate to look elsewhere on the bench for a contributor to get the job done. Against the Trail Blazers, Williams embodied the principles that come with that mentality, doing a little bit of everything while adding an assist, a steal, and two blocks to his stat line.

In January, Williams averaged just over seven minutes across four games. His playing time against Portland nearly matched his combined total (29 minutes) from his first six career appearances over the season’s first three months. Even in a season when Mazzulla has been at his most experimental with lineups and rotations, Williams has had to wait his turn at the table.

Through 10 games with the Maine Celtics, he has averaged 12.1 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 5.1 assists, along with 1.8 blocks, while shooting 60.5% from the field.

Williams, the most recent center drafted by the Celtics, at times even outshone Robert Williams III, the last center Boston selected before him in the 2018 NBA Draft.

Mazzulla admitted that juggling the priority of winning can also heighten the degree of difficulty in player management, which trickles down throughout the entire coaching staff — not just Mazzulla.

“Yes, we do have to win the game, but that doesn’t mean we’re not going to play the guys who give it everything they’ve got every single day,” Mazzulla said. “… It just validates the work because if you don’t give them chances to validate them, then they’re not going to work hard. And I think it validates the staff because at the end of the day, I have to speak to Amari knowing that, up until the point he checks into the game, there’s a full level of trust in everything the staff is telling him.”

Sixers host Giannis-less Bucks to close back-to-back

Just over 24 hours removed from being absolutely demolished by the Charlotte Hornets, the Philadelphia 76ers are back in action on Tuesday night to host the Milwaukee Bucks sans Giannis Antetokounmpo.

It’s a good thing there’s a quick turnaround here. I don’t think the Sixers want more time to dwell on their last contest. On Monday afternoon, Philadelphia put up a pathetic display for one of their worst losses all season falling to Charlotte 130-93. The Sixers even trailed by 50 at one point in the game. Joel Embiid and Paul George did not play (left knee injury management), but still. Just truly pathetic.

Fortunately, the Sixers will have to quickly flush that one from their memory with another game ahead on Tuesday.

This is the squad’s ninth back-to-back of the season so far with seven more ahead. In zero-days rest games, the Sixers are 5-3 this campaign. They will have had a few more hours of rest than a typical back-to-back, though. Philadelphia’s game on Monday in Charlotte was moved up to 3 p.m. ET (originally 7 p.m.) to give the Sixers more time to get back home in the wake of the winter storm that ripped through the East Coast this past weekend.

The Sixers’ injury report will not be made available until this afternoon. That being said, both Embiid and George did not play yesterday against the Hornets. Based on the pattern of the duo simply not playing both ends of back-to-backs, it would not be surprising to see both Embiid and George back available for today against the Bucks.

Per usual, we will keep you posted on everyone’s official statuses once they are available.

We do know that the Bucks will be without Giannis, who currently has no timetable for return after being diagnosed with a calf strain. It goes without saying that Milwaukee is a completely different team without Giannis, who is averaging 28 points and 10 rebounds per game in 30 contests this season. The Bucks are 3-11 this season when Giannis is sidelined.

Kevin Porter Jr. is also out with an oblique strain and Taurean Prince remains out recovering from neck surgery.

The last time the Sixers and Bucks faced off was also the second leg of a back-to-back for Philadelphia. Strangely, three of the four times the Sixers play the Bucks this season are second legs of back-to-backs. NBA brilliant scheduling at work!

But I digress. The Sixers are 2-0 against the Bucks this campaign. The squads had their most recent matchup back on Dec. 5, 2025, in Milwaukee with both Giannis and Embiid absent. The Sixers won 116-101 thanks in no small part to Quentin Grimes leading the team with 22 points off the bench on 7-for-9 field goal shooting (6-for-7 from long range) with five assists. Frankly, it was one of the last good (or even decent) Grimes performances, with the guard struggling mightily as of late to say the least.

In the teams’ first matchup back on Nov. 20, 2025, Tyrese Maxey put up a career-high 54 points on 18-for-30 field goal shooting (6-for-15 from three-point range) with nine assists, three steals and three blocks in a truly dominant performance. No Embiid nor Giannis for that one either.

The biggest thing this game provides for the Sixers is an opportunity to get momentum on their side. It feels like every time this team wins a good game, such as their overtime win over the Houston Rockets on Jan. 22, they follow it up with a big stumble into a loss or losing streak. That’s simply not going to cut it in a tight Eastern Conference. The Sixers haven’t been able to string four or more wins together since starting the season 4-0.

With a Giannis-less Bucks team ahead followed by meetings with the 12-win Sacramento Kings and 12-win New Orleans Pelicans, there’s not much excuse for not getting the ball rolling in their favor here.

The Sixers and Bucks tip off in South Philadelphia at 8 p.m. ET.

Game Details

When: Tuesday, January 27, 8:00 p.m. ET
Where: Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, PA
Watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia
Radio: 97.5 The Fanatic
Follow: @LibertyBallers

Tuesday Morning Texas Rangers Update

Good morning.

Kennedi Landry has more on the prospect cost that the Texas Rangers shipped out to Washington to land left-hander MacKenzie Gore.

Shawn McFarland writes about Evan Carter’s health and how much the Rangers are counting on him becoming an everyday contributor.

And, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel unveiled his top 100 prospects list with Sebastian Walcott near the top and Caden Scarborough sneaking in at the bottom.

Have a nice day!

Signing Framber Valdez would create a battle for the Orioles’ last starting spot

Eight weeks ago, I broke down the possible paths the Orioles might go down to have a successful offseason. One of the possibilities I laid out was some combination of Framber Valdez or Ranger Suárez and a big bat like Kyle Tucker, Kyle Schwarber or Pete Alonso. That possibility seems set to come to fruition, with reports that Baltimore is the frontrunner to sign the former Astro, Valdez.

Should the Orioles secure the 32-year-old lefty from the Dominican Republic, it would not only transform the top of the O’s rotation but also create an interesting competition for the No. 5 spot. Depending on how new manager Craig Albernaz wants to structure his rotation, you’d expect Valdez, Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers to fill in the top three spots in some order. Then, high-risk, high-reward acquisition Shane Baz will likely slide into the No. 4 spot. With four potential options to round out the rotation, filling that No. 5 spot will be one of the hardest decisions facing Alby and the new coaching staff.


Option 1: RHP Dean Kremer

2025 stats: 11-10, 4.19 ERA, 171.2 IP, 142 Ks, 1.21 WHIP

I’ve consistently thought of Kremer as a pitcher you’d be happy to have as your No. 5 starter. Too often in the past, the Orioles have been forced to have Kremer take on a more important role in the rotation. In 2023, he was the Game 3 starter in the Orioles’ playoff series against Texas. In 2024, he was third in total starts and innings pitched and probably would’ve taken the ball in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series had the O’s made it that far. Last year, Kremer was the Orioles’ most consistently available starter, leading the team in innings pitched and strikeouts while making 31 appearances.

Heading into the 2026 season, Kremer finally has a chance to fill the role he was destined for. Given the other three options’ struggles with injuries (and on-field performance) in 2025, Kremer would come into spring training with the inside track on landing the final spot in the rotation. He should be the most stretched out of all Orioles pitchers, as he starts his competitive season earlier than most, headlining Team Israel’s rotation in the 2026 World Baseball Classic.

And not only would the fifth-starter role better fit Kremer’s “consistent, but rarely spectacular” brand of baseball, but it also may help Kremer avoid the early-season struggles that have plagued him in the past. Due to some extra rest days in the first month of the season, the fifth starter often doesn’t get a full complement of starts. That’d suit Kremer just fine, who sports a 6.24 ERA in March/April and a 3.88 ERA across all other months.

Option 2: RHP Zach Eflin

2025 stats: 6-5, 5.93 ERA, 71.1 IP, 50 Ks, 1.42 WHIP

While Kremer represents the steady, dependable option for the Orioles’ fifth starter, Eflin is the higher upside option. After a nine-start cameo in 2024 that saw him pitch to a 2.60 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 55.1 innings, Eflin came into last season as the Orioles Opening Day starter and de facto ace.

The first nine outings of his 2025 season were similarly encouraging. Eflin pitched to a 4.08 ERA, which went down to 3.02 if you removed an eight-run blow-up against the Nationals. Eflin then crumbled as he tried to gut through the effects of the back injury that ultimately ended his season. Over his final five outings of last season, Eflin put up an 11.29 ERA while allowing 37 hits and eight home runs over 18.1 innings.

The Orioles may choose to be cautious with the 10-year MLB vet, as he looks to bounce back from the fourth major back injury of his career. If the O’s slow play his build-up in the spring, he may fall behind Kremer in the early-season pecking order. However, if Eflin is fully healthy when the team leaves Sarasota in two months, he may get the nod based on his contract. Eflin is set to make $10M in 2025, compared to $5.75M for Kremer.

Option 3: LHP Cade Povich

2025 stats: 3-8, 5.21 ERA, 112.1 IP, 118 Ks, 1.50 WHIP

Povich was in a similar position last year and ended up breaking spring training as the Orioles’ No. 5 starter. What happened after that was a bit of a trainwreck for the 25-year-old southpaw. In Povich’s first 13 starts of the season, the lefty they call Slim posted a 5.15 ERA, gave up a .286 average against, and overall, struggled to string together decent outings.

Povich missed six weeks in the middle of the season with a hip injury and wasn’t much better when he came off the IL. In nine starts down the stretch, his ERA grew to 5.29, his batting average against remained in the .280s and he continued to give up home runs at an alarming rate. In fact, Povich’s 1.4 HR/9 rate would have been one of the 10 worst in all of baseball if he had enough innings to qualify.

The former Nebraska Cornhusker does have two factors in his favor: youth and strikeout upside. Povich is at least four years younger than any of the other pitchers he’s competing against, meaning Albernaz and the new staff may want to give him another opportunity to maximize his upside. The coaching staff may also want another pitcher with swing-and-miss stuff. Outside of Bradish, Povich was the only starter last year who posted a K/9 greater than nine.

Option 4: RHP Tyler Wells

2025 stats: 2-1, 2.91 ERA, 21.2 IP, 18 Ks, 0.88 WHIP

Wells is the ultimate wild card, as the Orioles could choose to use him in rotation, the bullpen or a hybrid, Albert Suárez-type role. The towering righty from Oklahoma has only pitched 27 innings over the last two seasons due to a UCL injury that required surgery, though not a full reconstruction. The fact that he moved back into the rotation last year upon his return from injury was a bit surprising, but his results justified it.

In four starts at the end of last season, Wells had two quality starts, limited opponents to a .213 batting average and only issued two walks in 21.2 innings. Home runs were a problem for him—he allowed a home run in each of his starts—but overall, he looked like pre-All-Star break, 2023 Tyler Wells again. If that’s the type of pitcher he can be over 25+ starts, he jumps to the front of the line for the Orioles fifth starter spot.

However, Wells’ biggest problem has always been his durability. After throwing 104.2 innings in the first half of 2023, he faded after the All-Star break. The former Rule 5 draft pick hit a wall in the second half, ultimately being demoted to Double-A midseason before being brought back as a reliever. Wells has never thrown 120+ innings in a season, and asking him to be a full-time starter may simply not be the best use of the innings the Orioles can get out of him.

What will Spencer Strider produce in 2026?

Sigh, this is a depressing one of these to do. Everything about Spencer Strider was, in theory, so awesome, that it didn’t seem like a little thing like a year-long layoff due to elbow troubles was going to derail his career. Surely someone so diligent in being in tune with his body and mechanics could hit the ground running, right? Well, not exactly. After an uneven 2025, Strider’s outlook is uncertain, and pretty fraught.

Career-to-date, status

Drafted in the fourth round of the shortened 2020 MLB Draft, Strider pitched at five different levels (including MLB) in his first professional season. He started 2022 in the big league bullpen, but transitioned to the rotation at the end of May, and well, it seemed like the rest would be history. A hilariously dominant 2022 season could’ve earned him Rookie of the Year honors had his teammate, Michael Harris II, not taken that piece of hardware. (Strider actually had barely more fWAR than Harris, 4.9 to 4.7, though he was pitching in the bullpen while Harris was in the minors.) Strider then spent a full year in the rotation in 2023, and “hilariously dominant” still applied. His 5.5 fWAR that year was second only to Zack Wheeler’s 5.9. All in all, including his time in the bullpen, Strider put up 10.3 fWAR in 318 1/3 innings in 2022-2023, with a 79 ERA-, 59 FIP-, and 63 xFIP-. While perhaps not video game numbers, they were essentially dominant reliever numbers, but from a guy who was close to six innings a game as a starter.

Disaster struck fairly quickly after that, though. Strider looked like himself in his first start of 2024, but not so much in the second, and then missed the rest of the year with an elbow issue that let him avoid Tommy John Surgery, but not missing about a year of action anyway.

Even before his 2023 gave serious credence to the possibility of him being the best starter in the game, the Braves inked him to a $75 million, six-year extension in October 2022. It was, at the time, the highest average annual value for a player with between one and two years of service time. The extension gave Strider relatively low salaries through 2025, but bumps his pay up to $20 million for 2026 and $22 million for the two years thereafter, along with a $22 million club option for 2029 with a $5 million buyout. At the time, it was a move in line with the exuberance of the moment. In 2023, the only concern was that he might eventually get injured. In 2024, well, he got injured. What came after has basically become the antithesis of that exuberance.

Recent performance

2025 was a problem for the Braves, and with regard to Strider’s outlook even moreso than just the mess that was that calendar year for the organization. The main problem, as I’ll get into a bit below, wasn’t that Strider was rusty — it was that rather than improving, he more or less fell apart as the season went on. Maybe it’s not right to have expected rust removal or improvement with experience post-elbow procedure, but given that the proverbial ship seemingly unrighted itself after he had regained a level of decent performance, there are certainly a lot of concerns for Strider heading into 2026.

To be more specific, Strider struggled a fair bit in his first five starts back, though this was not surprising given the layoff and the fact that a hamstring injury actually forced him to take another monthlong break from active duty after his first start of the year. He then reeled off a seven-start stretch where no one would fault you for thinking that Strider was back: in 42 2/3 innings, he put together a 60 ERA-, 61 FIP-, and 66 xFIP-. Nor was this an artifact of facing weak teams, as five of those seven games came against teams that finished in the top ten in wRC+, including the top-finishing Yankees. (Even without the Rockies, the line goes to 70/74/76.) Unfortunately, and here’s the rub: he didn’t keep it going.

There was a two-homer game against the Giants, a poor-peripherals game against the Royals, and then another two-homer game against the Brewers. Whether you want to include those in the “Strider was fine/good” or “Strider was bad” column isn’t really the point, because after that, things just got awful. Strider’s final eight starts of the season featured eight homers, but leaving HR/FB concerns aside, he had a garbage-quality 124/133/125 line. I’m not going to use this projections post to talk about the specific issues he had (see his season review, among other things, for that), but the point is that Strider got worse and never really showed he could un-get worse after those dreadful seven weeks.

All in all, his 2025 involved 0.9 fWAR over 125 1/3 innings with a 105/111/102 line; the okay-ish xFIP could be offset by the fact that his xERA was much worse than his xFIP, assuming you give any weight to xERA as a measure of pitching effectiveness.

Forecasting

Same brief disclaimer: once upon a time I built a projection system to try to mirror/get at the workings of Steamer and ZiPS. I called it IWAG. You can figure out what that means, maybe. I’m bringing it back for this series of posts. Here’s Strider, for 2026.

This is probably the most fraught point estimate of this series. It makes Strider out to be an above-average starter with health issues. But… we know things are a little different. Namely, this is an average of his possible divergent outcomes, with some discounting of his availability given that he missed quite a lot of time in 2024-2025.

Steamer has Strider at around 3.4 WAR per 200 innings, with a point estimate of 161 innings and 2.7 WAR. ZiPS is at 3.2/200 and a point estimate of 2.2 WAR in about 138 innings. IWAG is more conservative on all fronts, but not really all that different (which makes sense because it was built to understand Steamer and ZiPS). So, no discrepancy, but…

Is Strider good or not? I don’t know. I’m not sure anyone knows. Maybe he’ll go back to pre-injury form. Maybe he’ll look like 2025. It’s possible he ends up somewhere in the middle, I guess, but we haven’t seen much middling performance from him at any point, so I’m not sure where that would come from. One of the two poles seems more likely at this point. And, there’s a huge competitive swing for the Braves depending on which of the two you get. I have a headache now. Who’s next on the list? Jurickson Profar? Well… that’s only somewhat less fraught. What a stretch of guys with variable performance we’ve been privy to.

Your turn

Alright, I’ve given you the info. Well, some info. You may have your own info. With that, I ask you:

  • Rounded to the nearest fWAR, how much will Spencer Strider produce in 2026? (If you ignore this and provide a partial fWAR, I will round it for you, and your scoring will not be based on 1 WAR around your point estimate, but 1 WAR around the rounded number.)
  • How confident are you in your choice? Go with a scale from 1-5, where 3 is “I dunno, reasonably confident,” 5 is certain, and 1 is “I am participating but have no confidence in my choice and don’t want the fact that it will likely be incorrect to affect my place in any theoretical standings all that much.”

SnakeBytes 1/27: Some WBC Roster Surprises

Diamondbacks News

D-backs’ newest 3B Nolan Arenado joins Team Puerto Rico for WBC by Wendy Lopez [Burn City Sports]

The move marks a major shift from the 2023 tournament, when Arenado played for Team USA, as he now looks to represent his heritage after previously competing for his home country. The Diamondbacks’ third baseman has Puerto Rican heritage through his mom’s side and now has the opportunity to represent his roots on baseball’s biggest international stage.

Diamondbacks Heavy Lifting Done for the Offseason by Michael McDermott [D-backs Under Review]

With a little bit of hindsight, it was pretty obvious from the onset that the Diamondbacks were handicapped financially entering the offseason. Injuries to Corbin Burnes, Justin Martinez, A.J. Puk, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. limited what they could do. The quartet combined for $53.6 million of Arizona’s 209.2 million payroll for 2026 (Cots), or 25.6%.

With injuries completely decimating the pitching staff, which will linger into 2026, D-backs GM Mike Hazen had some tough decisions to make. He chose to address the rotation and third base this offseason, at the expense of the bullpen.

MLB Admits What D-backs Fans Already Know About Ketel Marte by Alex D’Agostino [SI]

There’s no denying Marte, from a statistical standpoint, holds the advantage over the rest of MLB. He led all qualified second basemen in OPS (.893) in 2025 — a full 80 points above Jazz Chisholm in second place. 

Despite missing a decent chunk of time with an injury, and finding himself in the middle of some mid-season drama, he also managed the third-most homers (28) and fourth-most doubles (also 28), while slashing an immense .283/.376/.517 and posting a 145 wRC+ (45% above league average) per FanGraphs.

Around the League

Astros Forbid Jose Altuve From World Baseball Classic by Justin Carlucci [Heavy]

The Houston Astros have made their position clear. Jose Altuve will not represent Venezuela in the 2026 World Baseball Classic, and the decision came from the organization, not the player. According to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, the Astros requested that their 36-year-old second baseman skip the tournament to focus on spring training preparation.​​

The club hasn’t officially confirmed the news, but Altuve’s comments from Saturday’s FanFest made the situation obvious. “I signed the paper that I’m willing to go play like I did the last two WBCs,” Altuve told reporters. “Always an honor to represent my country. I played in the last one and the one before, and I’m trying to do it in this one. I don’t know what’s going on behind the scenes, but it seems this year is not up to me. Hopefully everything clears up, and I’ll be able to go.”​

Zac Gallen’s keys to a bounce back in 2026 by David Adler [MLB]

Zac Gallen is a workhorse starting pitcher with two top-five Cy Young finishes in the past four years who’s still just 30 years old. Sounds like a top-tier free agent.

But instead, he’s a polarizing one because of his rocky 2025 season. Gallen still pitched 192 innings and recorded 175 strikeouts for the D-backs, but his ERA spiked to 4.83, one of the highest among qualified pitchers, and he just didn’t look the same as the ace-level Gallen of 2022-23.

The Most Baseball a Baseball Town Can Be by Amanda Vogt [FanGraphs]

This is Irmo, South Carolina, the most baseball a baseball town can be. 

Irmo is so baseball that last year it sent not one, not two, not three, but four teams in different divisions to the Little League World Series — baseball teams of up to 12-, 13- and 16-year-old boys, along with a girls softball team. Little League has seven divisions, each of which holds a national tournament of top teams every year, the World Series. Do the math: One community sent clubs to more than half the national competitions.

Irmo is so baseball that championship jerseys hang in local restaurants as relics of pride with signatures of the ball players, who are treated as local celebrities.

MLB’s top 5 breakout teams for 2026 by Bradford Doolittle [ESPN]

Last year, there were three teams that beat their baseline win figure by at least 10, all in the American League: the White Sox, the Athletics and the Toronto Blue Jays.

Breaking out means different things for different teams. For the White Sox, it meant being less terrible than their record-setting 2024 collapse. For the Athletics, it meant a return to respectability, laying the foundation for a possible playoff run in 2026. For the Blue Jays, it meant falling inches shy of a World Series championship.

Giants Sign Harrison Bader by Steve Adams [MLB Trade Rumors]

The Giants have a notable upgrade to their outfield defense in place, reportedly agreeing to a two-year, $20.5MM contract with free agent outfielder Harrison Bader. The Vayner Sports client can earn an additional $500K via incentives, bringing the deal’s maximum value to $21MM.

Bader, 31, has been a free agent for three consecutive offseasons but now lands the multi-year deal that’s previously eluded him. He signed one-year deals with the Mets and Twins, respectively, over the past two winters. Bader turned in a career-best performance in Minnesota and was red hot for the Phillies down the stretch after joining them in a deadline swap, and the market has rewarded that strong 2025 performance.

Red Sox pitcher Payton Tolle not letting trade rumors faze him

Good morning! We fans probably downplay the effect a trade has on a baseball player. Could you imagine how disrupting it would be if your employers could force you into a different job in a different city in an instant? But Payton Tolle isn’t too fazed by the trade rumors, which is just one thing he discussed during this great interview on MLB Network.

Talk about what you want, keep digging out from that snow, and be good to one another.

Trail Blazers vs Wizards Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

The Portland Trail Blazers look to snap a two-game losing streak when they visit Capital One Arena to face the Washington Wizards tonight. 

With neither team producing consistent offense, my Trail Blazers vs. Wizards predictions expect a low-scoring game in the nation’s capital.

Read on for my NBA picks for Tuesday, January 27. 

Trail Blazers vs Wizards prediction

Trail Blazers vs Wizards best bet: Under 232.5 (-110)

The Portland Trail Blazers are on the second night of a back-to-back, a spot that often leads to tired legs, a slower pace, and fewer clean looks late in games. 

The Washington Wizards offense remains inefficient and relies on heavy minutes from a short rotation, regularly leading to turnovers, rushed shots, and prolonged scoring droughts. 

While both teams rank among the league leaders in pace, their last five games have featured far fewer possessions. Add declining offensive efficiency into that mix, and we have a low-scoring affair tonight. 

Trail Blazers vs Wizards same-game parlay

Deni Avdija missed last night's clash with back issues. The line suggests he will play tonight, but he’s failed score more than 26 points in three of his previous four games.

The Trail Blazers defend the arc well, and Kyshawn George has failed to knock down three or more triples in six of his previous seven games.

Trail Blazers vs Wizards SGP

  • Under 232.5
  • Deni Avdija Under 26.5 points
  • Kyshawn George Under 2.5 made threes

Our "from downtown" SGP: Clingan to Relevance

Donovan Clingan has snagged 12 or more rebounds in four of his previous six games and meets a mediocre Wizards squad, allowing the second-most boards per game. 

The Blazers defend at a higher level and control tempo. Washington remains unsettled after trading CJ McCollum, leaving a young roster still searching to find its bearings. 

Trail Blazers vs Wizards SGP

  • Under 232.5
  • Deni Avdija Under 26.5 points
  • Kyshawn George Under 2.5 made threes
  • Donovan Clingan Over 11.5 rebounds
  • Trail Blazers moneyline

Trail Blazers vs Wizards odds

  • Spread: Trail Blazers -7 (-110) | Wizards +7 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Trail Blazers -260 | Wizards +210
  • Over/Under: Over 232.5 (-110) | Under 232.5 (-110)

Trail Blazers vs Wizards betting trend to know

The Under is 7-3-0 in the Portland Trail Blazers' previous 10 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Wizards.

How to watch Trail Blazers vs Wizards

LocationCapital One Arena, Washington, DC
DateTuesday, January 27, 2026
Tip-off7:00 p.m. ET
TVKUNP, MNMT

Trail Blazers vs Wizards latest injuries

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This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

Atlanta Braves News: Cam Caminiti, Bounce Back Braves, More

If it is late January on the the MLB Calendar, that means it is prospect lists galore. And for Cam Caminiti, it is further validation that he is emerging as one of the best young pitching prospects on the game. Both Keith Law and MLB Pipeline see the young southpaw as the Braves best prospect, and an arm that is moving up top 100 lists across baseball. It could really be a huge year for Caminiti, who is clearly the prize of the Braves farm.

Braves News

ESPN tabbed the Braves as being the most likely team to “bounce back” to contention in 2026. This prediction has some merit, as many projection systems still see the Braves as one of the top teams in baseball. Health and a return to normal production for many players is the key.

Jose Suarez was once again claimed by the Braves from the Orioles.

MLB News

Harrison Bader signed a two year deal with the San Francisco Giants.

Mets Morning News: Thawing out until Opening Day

Meet the Mets

Tim Britton and Will Sammon made their predictions on how the Mets’ roster will look.

Brian Murphy explained why Bo Bichette is not new to Carlos Mendoza, despite being new to the Mets’ organization.

Four Mets ended up in The Athletic’s Top 100 prospects list, including two guys in the Top 20.

Sam Dykstra picked out some Mets prospects who could end up cracking the Top 100.

Around the National League East

The Braves claimed reliever José Suarez off waivers and designated George Soriano for assignment to make room on the roster.

There could be a change to the Phillies’ lineup this year, specifically with where Bryce Harper is hitting.

Around Major League Baseball

Manny Randhawa listed the ten best games from the 2025 season.

Brian Murphy looked at 18 players who are on the rise in 2026, based on where they ranked on the list of Top 100 players.

Will Leitch ranked the 13 All-Stars on the Dodgers’ roster.

Bradford Doolittle explored five teams that could be poised for a break out in 2026.

David Adler outlined four keys to a bounce-back season for free agent starter Zac Gallen.

Many teams appear interested in free agent Lucas Giolito.

Old Friend Harrison Bader, who has played for both the Mets and Yankees, is signing with the Giants on a two-year deal.

Joe Ryan and the Twins agreed to a contract to avoid arbitration.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Lukas Vlahos graded the team’s acquisition of Luis Robert Jr.

Ryan Clifford came in at number 8 on the Amazin’ Avenue list of Mets’ prospects list.

This Date in Mets History

The Mets dealt Steven Matz to the Blue Jays for a package that featured Sean Reid-Foley, Josh Winchowski, and Yennsy Diaz on this date in 2021. On the same day, they signed Aaron Loup, who pitched in one season for New York and set a franchise record for fewest earned runs allowed (six) with at least 50 innings pitched.

Coco Gauff unhappy after racket smashing video at Australian Open goes viral

  • American vents frustration after quarter-final loss

  • Gauff believed she was letting out anger in private

Coco Gauff has expressed her disappointment after video of her smashing her racket at the Australian Open was picked up on camera.

The American was well below her usual high standards during her 6-1, 6-2 defeat by Elina Svitolina on Tuesday. Gauff had trouble with her forehand and serve throughout the match - she double-faulted five times in the first set alone – and hit 26 unforced errors to just three winners, losing in just 59 minutes. She also appeared to believe there was something wrong with her equipment as she struggled with her control, and had three of her rackets restrung in the opening set.

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Time to believe in Arizona? No. 1 Wildcats give reason to hope — and worry vs. BYU

There’s something different about Arizona this season.

On the surface, it looks like the typical Tommy Lloyd team. The Wildcats started the season with impressive wins, rolling into the new calendar year playing a fast, fun brand of basketball that puts them in the upper echelon of title contenders.

It always seems smart to buy stock in the top-ranked Wildcats. The only issue is it has gone to waste in March. The same vibe has existed during this season, and you may be hesitant to buy-in again given the recent postseason history. Maybe you need to see more — or just avoid it entirely.

But there’s something different about these Wildcats. This team looks like it can be legit and break the Final Four curse; Arizona got through its first major test of 2026 with a road win at Brigham Young — just not in the prettiest of fashion.

Arizona Wildcats guard Brayden Burries (5) drives while being defended by BYU Cougars forward Kennard Davis Jr. (30) during the second half at Marriott Center.

For the majority of the night on Monday, Jan. 26, Arizona looked like it was the best team in the country. It went into a hostile Marriott Center — where 13th-ranked BYU hasn’t lost in nearly a year — and silenced more than 18,000 people. 

The Wildcats dominated both sides of the ball, and answered everything the Cougars tried. Brayden Burries and Jaden Bradley were slicing and dicing while BYU star AJ Dybantsa struggled to find a rhythm after dropping 43 points just two days before

It was a 19-point game with just under 11 minutes to go and we were ready to declare Arizona was no longer the team that can’t get it done when the lights are brightest. That was until the Wildcats showed part of that identity isn’t gone yet.

Arizona let BYU hang around and the Cougars made a late push, all while the Wildcats were falling apart. Not defending the perimeter. Collapsing on the boards. A flagrant foul. Turnovers.

BYU made a 12-2 run in the final minute to make it a one-point deficit with 16 seconds left, and the Cougars had a chance to steal the win, only for Burries to save the day with a block from behind.

In what was looking like an emphatic statement to the rest of the country, Arizona instead showed it isn’t invincible. Yes, they deserve to be the unanimous No. 1 team in the country with a 9-0 Quad 1 record, tied for most wins in the category with Duke.

Yet the game in Provo, Utah was eerily similar to how the season goes: fantastic start, but fall apart at the end. Arizona has looked so dominant recently, mostly because it hasn’t been tested in some time. 

After beating Connecticut, Alabama and San Diego State all before Christmas, the competition has been easy to start Big 12 action. Five of the first seven games came against the bottom half of the conference, all mostly blowout victories.

We want to see how this Arizona team stacks up against other elite teams before it’s worth investing in. It passed the first test, but plenty more are on the horizon.

BYU was just the start of a 10-game stretch where Arizona will play six ranked teams, all of which are in the top 14 of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll. Trips to Kansas and Houston? Good luck with that.

This will be the time for Arizona to prove its legitimacy. It certainly is capable of doing so. What’s scary about the Wildcats is they are lethal in numerous ways. Opponents walk into the arena and don’t know who will be the deadly assassin, mostly because it’s a team full of them.

One night it’s the guards in Burries, Bradley or Koa Peat, the next it’s the veteran big man Motiejus Krivas, and so on. Like against BYU, it can be multiple of them, which shouldn’t give teams much of a chance. 

This Arizona team has all the makings of being the one that gets back to the Final Four for the first time since 2001. It has the tools and recipe to be cutting the nets by then.

But then we remember how the end always goes, where this mighty looking ship gets taken out by an iceberg that should have been avoidable. This upcoming stretch will show if Arizona is done sinking, and ready to finish the voyage.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Arizona is the No. 1 team in the country, but can't be trusted fully yet

Red Sox News & Links: Sox still interested in Isaac Paredes; no deal imminent

Yesterday, we told you about the four Red Sox prospects who made their way into MLB Pipeline’s top-100 list: Payton Tolle, Franklin Arias, Connelly Early, and Kyson Witherspoon. Today, we have a new prospect ranking — this one from the Athletic’s Keith Law. The same four players are on it, though Law is comparatively lower on Tolle (he has him 40th compared to Pipeline’s 19, admitting that he wasn’t high on him to start last season) and comparatively higher on Arias, who he has at number 12 compared to Pipeline’s 31. (Keith Law The Athletic)

But is it risky to get too attached to any of those guys? According to a new report, the Red Sox remain interested in infielder Isaac Parades of the Astros, though no deal is particularly close. (Chandler Rome, The Athletic)

Though the fact that no deal is particularly close right now doesn’t mean that a deal can’t come together quickly, as evidenced by the Ranger Suárez signing. In this piece that dives into the pursuit of the pitcher, we learn that the Red Sox met with Suárez way back at the start of the offseason after deciding he was the best fit among this year’s class of free agent pitchers. But that was as far as things went until the Sox were forced to pivot quickly following the Alex Bregman departure. (Alex Speier, Boston Globe)

Speaking of the Alex Bregman departure, it’s a little unsettling that we still have no idea who is going to play third base for the 2026 Red Sox— or second base for that matter. But Marcelo Mayer is going to be prepared either way: “I’m doing everything I can, taking reps at third and at second base, and I feel really good at both. So wherever they need me is where I’m gonna play, and I’m gonna do my best out there.” (Ian Browne, MLB.com)

As for who will play whichever position Mayer doesn’t man, can I interest you is some Dylan Moore?

Moore is 33 years old and hit .201 for two MLB teams last year, so if your answer to that question is “no,” I don’t blame you.

Grading the Mavericks: Max Christie should be a part of the future

The Mavericks were 1-1 this past week and remain locked into 12th place in the West. They played both games at home, beating Golden State (123-115) and losing to the Los Angeles Lakers (116-110). Dallas was supposed to fly to Milwaukee for a game on Sunday, but due to inclement weather, the game was postponed. Naji Marshall led the team in scoring with 25.5 points per game. Kyrie Irving (knee) and Anthony Davis (finger) remain out.   

Grade: C+

The Mavericks had a good win against the Warriors. They survived an onslaught from Steph Curry, which, frankly, was breathtaking to witness. Curry had 38 points on 8-of-15 from deep, and each subsequent shot was more incredible than the last. Still, Dallas was able to mitigate the “other guys” and likely got saved from a massive night from Jonathan Kuminga when he exited with an injury after scoring 10 points in nine minutes. Naji Marshall, Max Christie, and Cooper Flagg were all really good, and had the fourth quarter of the Lakers game not happened, this might have been an A+ week.

But the Mavericks get a C+ instead. And yes, that fourth quarter was so bad, it cost them two grades. With 9:38 remaining in the game, the Lakers had put together one of the worst 14.5-minute stretches of basketball I have ever seen to begin the second half. They had scored 14 points until then, and Dallas held a 93-79 lead. From that point forward, Los Angeles outscored the Mavericks 37-17 in just over 9.5 minutes of game time. If you don’t want to do the math, that’s a pace of 187 points per 48 minutes the Mavericks allowed to close the game.

Their defense was putrid, they got stagnant on offense, and head coach Jason Kidd refused to shake things up. Brandon Williams had an excellent run to close the third and was a big reason why Dallas held that lead. But his magic ran out quickly in the final frame, and yet Kidd stuck with him until the clock hit zero. Cooper Flagg was passive and settled. P.J. Washington was in the game, but you could not tell. The lack of a point guard on this team was never more obvious than when Dallas could not get a good shot for what seemed like hours while the Lakers got bucket after bucket on the other end.

And, as horrible as the Lakers’ (and specifically Luka Doncic) defense was in the first three periods, they were just as lights out defensively in the fourth. It was the kind of loss that would have driven everyone mad if the Mavericks were playing for a playoff seeding. With three games in four days this week, they need to flush that collapse and build on the seven quarters they played at a very high level.

Straight A’s: Max Christie

I could have given Naji Marshall A’s this week, too, but Marshall is just doing what he has done all year. Christie, on the other hand, has added things to his game that he did not have last season, and maybe not even earlier this year. Everyone knows about the shooting: 45.5 percent from 3-point range on 5.8 attempts per game. But what I have been most impressed with is his two-point shot diet. He shot 50 percent on 12 twos this week and showed off some moves that were very mature. One stands out against the Lakers, where he caught the ball in transition, pushed, and used his body effectively on a slow euro-step to go into Jake LaRavia and draw a foul:

He has rapidly improved in his time in Dallas. Christie is just 22 and making under $9 million for the next two seasons. He may be playing well enough to bring in a serious return in trade, but I think it is in Dallas’s best interest to retain him as part of their young core. Much like how I felt about Quentin Grimes, it is important to actually keep some of the young, talented guards you have instead of trading them for cost control purposes. Christie certainly falls in that category and is an excellent complementary piece for a rebuild around Cooper Flagg. 

Currently Failing: P.J. Washington

Washington has not been the same since injuring his ankle against Houston earlier this month. In the three games he has played since, he has scored just 24 points in 79 minutes while shooting 33 percent from the floor. His impact has been overwhelmingly negative, and he just looks off. His head is not there right now, and you can tell by the way he is moving on offense. Every dribble and push shot or floater looks a step slow, and you can see his brain over-analyzing what to do in real time. It’s not a matter of talent, because we all have seen what he can be. Washington just needs to refocus and stop thinking as much when he is out there. With all the trade talk surrounding Dallas, it is probably a good thing for Washington that he cannot be dealt this season. It is in his best interest to focus on playing for the rest of the year without distractions and finish strong.

Extra Credit: Luka Doncic

Before Saturday’s game against the Lakers, former Dallas Mavericks point guard Luka Doncic reached out to 22 online personalities to invite them to the game for a meet-and-greet, as well as a chance to sit in his suite for the action: 

This group included our very own editor-in-chief, Kirk Henderson, who brought his son with him for an experience they will both remember for the rest of their lives. It was an awesome gesture by Doncic, and one that he absolutely did not have to do. In talking with people who were invited, everyone agreed that he could not have been nicer. 

Doncic will always be loved in Dallas. He will never look normal in purple and gold. We don’t know if he has had thoughts about returning to play for the Mavericks one day, but it is clear that he still thinks about the city and the fans regularly.