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Despite multiple additions early in Spring Training, the San Diego Padres took a step back in 2026 projections according to both FanGraphs and PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus). In January, the numbers projected significant steps back for multiple players on the team but the lack of adding any higher tier talent seems to have negatively affected how the analytics view the Padres for the upcoming season.

At this point, FanGraphs projects a 79-83 record and fourth place finish in the NL West for the Friars. PECOTA is only slightly better at 80-82. While noting the loss of Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez, Yu Darvish and Robert Suarez, the poor projections for the remaining team from last year drags down any possible upside their additions could give the rankings.

Last season’s lack of power continues

The only player projected to have a better season than last year is Jackson Merrill. Every other position player is worse or about the same in assessing their performance. While projecting Luis Campusano, Nick Castellanos, Sung-Mun Song and Bryce Johnson as the bench players, none of them have an fWAR above 0.8.

Miguel Andujar is the platoon partner for Gavin Sheets or the DH and his fWAR is 0.6. No Padre position player has an fWAR above 5.4 (Fernando Tatis Jr.) while many are between 0.5 and 1.5. Tatis Jr. is projected to lead the team with 30 homers.

Pitching woes

The starting pitchers fair no better. Michael King will only get 161 innings with a 3.68 ERA. Nick Pivetta takes a big step back with a 3.92 ERA and Joe Musgrove gets a 3.89 ERA projection. There is no belief in Randy Vasquez at 4.79 and Germán Márquez is the projected fifth starter with a 5.03 ERA.

The bullpen also gets very little love with lefty Adrian Morejon, who is widely considered a top reliever and was recently listed by MLB Network as a top 10 reliever in baseball, given an fWAR of 1.1 and a 3.40 ERA. Only Mason Miller gets any respect with a 2.44 ERA and fWAR of 2.3.

Playoff miss

The Los Angeles Angels, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Guardians, Athletics and Cincinnati Reds are all listed as having better odds of making the playoffs than the Padres. With the Dodgers listed at 94% to win the division and 99% to make the playoffs, the Padres come in at 1.2% to win the division and 22.1% to make the playoffs.

The San Francisco Giants come in at 37.4% to make the playoffs and the Arizona Diamondbacks are at 32% to make the playoffs. The Padres got the benefit of the doubt for much of the offseason with multiple projections listing them as the second or third best team in the NL West. That is no longer the case.

The only way to get national respect for this team in 2026 was if A.J. Preller agreed with the media around the league and traded away Tatis Jr. in order to acquire a power bat and top-tier starter. Trading the organization’s best player doesn’t seem like a good way to improve a team that finished with 90 wins last season. Preller made it clear early on that was not an option and he recently stated that shedding salary was not a priority.

Adding in the margins

While Preller has backloaded the team with starters returning from injury to compete for the fifth spot in the rotation, Randy Vasquez is facing a pivotal season in his career. Vasquez is out of options and must make the staff or be off-loaded at the end of spring. Reports from pitching coach Ruben Niebla and manager Craig Stammen has reflected that Vasquez has made the effort to take that step forward and has held onto the advances made at the end of last season.

The bats added, Castellanos and Andujar as 1B/DH options and Ty France as more of a defensive option, don’t deliver the power that fans had hoped. This puts the burden on the current roster to step up their game.

Heart and character matter

None of this goes into the projections seen on FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. They use algorithms and underlying metrics as well as aging statistics to determine their estimates. As fans who watch this team and know the players character and motivation, we can argue the numbers listed in these projections are devoid of the determination that we know these players exhibit.

Will the heart and character of the players play a role in helping the Padres outperform these numbers?

Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado can’t avoid the inevitability of aging. But not every player ages the same way and there are plenty of examples of good performances well into some athletes 30s. It is true that neither of them will play their pivotal positions for much longer, but the math used for these numbers doesn’t take into account the uniqueness of each player.

Proving them wrong

If just a few of the players play to the same level they did last season; if Tatis Jr. finds more power and Merrill stays healthy and takes another step forward; if Machado and Bogaerts stay relatively healthy and don’t regress as much as expected; then the offense should be fine. No matter if Andujar and Castellano aren’t big power hitters, both are improvements over Jason Heyward and Yuli Gurriel.

The Padres won’t have as many singles with Luis Arraez gone but Tatis Jr. will have better lineup protection with Merrill (or Bogaerts?) hitting behind him. The bottom of the lineup has little power as it presently stands unless Castellanos breaks out, Gavin Sheets plays above last year or another bat is added. But all of these issues were much worse last year and somehow this team finished three games behind the Dodgers.

Preller may not be done, there is lots of time left for more moves and still plenty of decent players looking for jobs. The trade market will still be busy for another few weeks and I don’t know that we have ever seen Preller go a whole offseason without a trade.

With just a little luck, maybe the Padres can surprise some people. A snake-in-the-grass isn’t always a bad thing.

It’s Wednesday night here at BCB After Dark: the coolest club for night owls, early risers, new parents and Cubs fans abroad. We’re so glad you decided to stop by tonight. It’s always good to see a friendly face. There’s no cover charge. If you have anything to check, let us know. The hostess will seat you know. Bring your own beverage.

BCB After Dark is the place for you to talk baseball, music, movies, or anything else you need to get off your chest, as long as it is within the rules of the site. The late-nighters are encouraged to get the party started, but everyone else is invited to join in as you wake up the next morning and into the afternoon.

Last night I asked you to pick your favorite bobblehead among the Cubs promotional giveaways in 2026. It came as no surprise to me that the Ryne Sandberg bobblehead was your favorite with 34 percent of the vote. It’s probably not a surprise either that the Ron Santo version finished second with 20 percent.

Sorry there’s a guy in a Brewers uniform up there. But it’s Colin Rea, so you know it’s one of the good guys.

Here’s the part where we talk movies and listen to music and tonight we’re finishing up our BCB Winter Science Fiction Classic. So you don’t want to miss that. But if you do, you can skip ahead to the baseball stuff now.

There’s a new Bill Evans biopic out that I’m sure will land at some small arthouse theater near you before going to streaming where I’m sure 95 percent of us will see it. So in honor of that, I thought I’d play you some Bill Evans. This is arguably Evans’ signature tune “Waltz for Debby.”

You voted in the second semifinal of the BCB Winter Science Fiction Classic and Terminator 2: Judgment Day advanced to the finals over Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan.

So that sets up our final match for the title between Terminator 2 and 2001: A Space Odyssey. But before we get to that, let’s take a look back at the entire tournament.

2001: A Space Odyssey (1968) Directed by Stanley Kubrick. Starring Keir Dullea and Gary Lockwood.

Here’s what I originally wrote about 2001.

And here’s the trailer for the 4K restoration of 2001.

Terminator 2: Judgment Day (1991). Directed by James Cameron. Starring Arnold Schwarzenegger, Linda Hamilton and Robert Patrick.

Here’s what I originally wrote about T2.

And here’s a trailer for the restored re-release of Terminator 2: Judgment Day.

I feel like I should say something about this matchup, but I’ve tried very hard not to put my finger on the scale when I present the polls. In any case, doing so might very well backfire on me, since I’ve made it clear that even though I don’t think it’s a bad film, I didn’t think that Back to the Future had any business being in this tournament and you folks ended up putting it in the final eight. Some of you are going to vote against me just to torment the teacher.

But I will say that T2 is a terrific action/adventure film with heart and humor. It’s not anywhere near my favorite, but there was never any question that it was going to be in the tournament. (Well, never any question after I decided to include it rather than the first The Terminator film, now known as T1.) It’s special effects are top-notch and hold up nicely 35 years later. In fact, the film may be more timely today than it was in 1991 with the menace of artificial intelligence.

2001: A Space Odyssey, on the other hand, was the film that I immediately decided was the number-one seed when we agreed to do a science fiction tournament. This is a film that redefined what a film could be. Even though it’s nearly sixty years old now and had no access to computer graphics, it still looks fantastic today. I get some of the criticism that it’s too artsy and esoteric. But one sign of a great film is when you leave with more questions than you walked in with. When the answer to one question just raises two more. There’s a reason that in the most recent BFI Sight and Sound critics poll of the greatest films of all-time, 2001 finished sixth.

But you get your say now. Which film should win the BCB Winter Science Fiction Classic?

Welcome back to everyone who skips the non-baseball stuff.

The Giants did some big outside-the-box thinking this past winter when they hired Tony Vitello to be their new manager. It was shocking because Vitello had been the head coach of the Tennessee Volunteers. He had no experience as a professional coach. Heck, he had no experience as a professional player. While it is quite common in football or basketball to hire out of the college ranks, no team in the history of the sport has ever hired a college coach to manage with no previous professional experience.

To be clear, Vitello was a very successful college coach. He took an ordinary mid-table SEC program and turned it into a powerhouse in his seven years as the Volunteers head coach. He won the school’s first College World Series title in 2024. So he knows the game.

But there are real cultural differences between the college and professional ranks in baseball. There were some worried Giants fans this week when, in the first week of Spring Training, Vitello criticized the media for reporting that he had been offered the Giants job before he had a chance to talk with his players at Tennessee. Or, according to him, even make up his mind to take it. Publicly picking a fight with the media is rarely a good call in MLB. Our brothers and sisters at McCovey Chronicles called it “an unforced error.” I’d add that if you can’t go a week without fighting with the relatively-tame Bay Area sports media (at least compared to the national writers and those in New York, Boston, Philly and even Chicago), you may not be ready for the Show.

But Vitello can learn from that and move on. And besides, it’s not even what I’m asking about tonight. Many of the cultural differences between the professional and college game come on the field. We all know about metal bats. But tonight’s topic is pitching or, more specifically, who decides what pitch is thrown? We all know how this works in the majors. The pitcher, catcher and coaching staff come up with a plan before the game, but once the game starts, the catcher puts down a finger (or he used to, more on that in a minute) and the pitcher either shakes him off or throws what the catcher asked for.

But in the college game, the catcher looks over at either the head coach, the pitching coach or someone else designated to relay the signal. The catcher then gets that signal from the coaching staff and signals it to the pitcher. The pitcher then throws that pitch. There isn’t much, if any, “shaking the catcher off.” At least not if the pitcher wants to remain a pitcher for long. You throw what the coaches tell you to throw.

Vitello has been asked about that change in the way pitching works and he said he’s “open” to the idea that MLB pitches should be called from the dugout. (The Athletic sub. req.) To be clear, Vitello hasn’t said he’s going to do it. For one, he’s got one of the best defensive catchers in the game with Patrick Bailey and there may not be any need to take pitch calling duties away from him. He seems to be doing a good enough job on his own. But he’s leaving open the possibility that he may do it sometime in the future, maybe when someone other than Bailey is behind the plate.

The argument for having coaches call the pitches is clear. For one, the coaches have all the charts right in front of them and don’t have to remember them in the heat of an at-bat. (Or check a chart on their wrist.) Also, catchers have a heck of a lot on their plate as it is. Even if you take pitch-calling duties away, they still have to set a target, block pitches, field the position and keep an eye on the pitcher to see if they’re losing their edge. On top of that, this year MLB is adding in that catchers have to be able to decide when to challenge a pitch that’s been called a ball. With a limited number of misses per team, that’s an important task.

(Yes, pitchers are also allowed to challenge a pitch with the ABS system, but I’m guessing that, like in the minors, most teams will forbid their pitchers from challenging a call. The biggest reason is that pitchers have traditionally been bad at it. One reason is that most pitchers think every borderline pitch they throw is a strike.)

The biggest reason against letting coaches call pitches is that it simply isn’t done in the pros. It’s tradition. Of course, there may be an argument that some catchers have a much better feel for their pitchers than the coaches have and can call a better game bases on how that pitcher’s stuff is working that day. I have no doubt that may be true for some catchers, but is it true for every catcher? There’s no way.

To be clear, the linked-to article above notes that the Giants aren’t the only team considering this. The Rockies plan to call some pitches from the dugout this year and if you’re the Rockies, I don’t see how trying something different could hurt. And for the final week of last season, the Marlins called all of their pitches from the dugout and that’s an experiment that they intend to continue this year, although I don’t think they’re planning to do it in every game.

Right now, the biggest barrier to having coaches call pitches is the pitch clock. Relaying signs doesn’t take much time, but it does take some time. And every second counts when you’re trying to avoid getting an automatic ball called. But as I noted above, catchers don’t stick their fingers down anymore, except in rare situations. The PitchCom system is now universally accepted. There’s no reason that coaches couldn’t signal the pitches from the dugout with PitchCom.

Except that there is a reason. It’s against the rules. As it stands now, only on-field personnel are allowed to use the PitchCom. So it’s OK for the shortstop to know what pitch is coming, but the manager is kept in the dark.

But should it be? Should managers be allowed to use the PitchCom system to call pitches? If one of the points of PitchCom is to speed up the game, then having the manager or pitching coach call the pitches from the dugout would probably help. They could get that call in much faster than the catcher, who may have to re-adjust his cup after a foul ball. (OK, they get time out for that. But you get my point)

So should the coaching staff be allowed to call pitches with PitchCom from the dugout? To be clear, no one is saying that a manager has to call pitches from the dugout with the PitchCom system. Only that they be given the opportunity should they choose to. Maybe some managers would call the pitches when a rookie catcher is out there but not when their two-time All-Star is behind the plate. Maybe some coaches would call all the pitches. And maybe some would call none. But putting a PitchCom in the dugout makes it easier and would likely make it smoother for teams that want to.

Thank you for stopping by tonight and all week. It’s good to get together again as baseball gets underway again. Please get home safely. The season starts soon and we want you around for it. Recycle and cans and bottles. Tip your waitstaff. And join us again next week for more BCB After Dark.

Well barring a last minute blockbuster trade, it really seems like the Opening Day rotation will look like Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Reynaldo Lopez, Grant Holmes, and the winner of the competition between Bryce Elder, Joey Wentz, and perhaps some other options, if they can all make it there healthy. You will note that Sale has had an extensive injury history, Strider is still looking to fully recover from his UCL internal brace surgery, Lopez missed most of last season, and Holmes rehabbed a partial UCL tear this offseason. Projecting productivity and health for those four to last until at least mid-season until we could perhaps see returns from young arms like Schwellenbach, Waldrep, and AJ Smith-Shawver is a risky proposition, though perhaps some farmhands can also play a role, such as top prospects Didier Fuentes, JR Ritchie, Owen Murphy, and others. It is really not good to be this deep into your starting pitching depth in mid-February.

Braves News

We got injury updates that did not sound very optimistic on Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep, as they both required surgery.

The Braves are seemingly sticking with internal options to fill out their rotation, even with Schwellenbach and Waldrep unavailable for a while. That is a risky proposition.

Fangraphs released a WAR-based OOPSY projection system top 100 prospect list, featuring Braves’ Didier Fuentes and John Gil.

MLB News

MLBPA elected a new interim executive director, Bruce Meyer, who had been the deputy executive director and will lead the new CBA negotiation.

Brusdar Graterol will not be ready to start the season for the Dodgers, as he recovers from shoulder surgery.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan charted what the direction needs to be for the MLBPA post-Tony Clark.

MLB.com | Bryan Hoch: Anthony Volpe will start the season on the IL as he continues to recover from labrum surgery over the offseason. In his first few days in camp though, the Yankee shortstop appears to be in high spirits and has been able to participate in most defensive drills. Volpe started dry swings yesterday, and could potentially start taking live BP within the next couple of days. A minor league rehab assignment (and maybe more!) is still on the way, but there’s at least room for that perpetual spring optimism.

The Athletic | Patrick Mooney & Brendan Kuty ($): The Yankees used to be a premier destination for international free agents coming to MLB from Asia, with multiple successful pursuits of Taiwanese and Japanese stars. They’ve not quite been as successful in recent years, and the org seems to recognize they’re leaving a lot of potential talent on the table. Thus, they’ve brought in Nao Masamoto into their front office, fresh from running an international strategy with the Cubs that helped Chicago land Seiya Suzuki and Shōta Imanaga.

New York Post | Greg Joyce: The tumult that the MLBPA has gone through all week after Tony Clark’s resignation certainly hasn’t instilled confidence in the union’s ability to stand up to MLB with labor talks upcoming. Internally though, the players themselves seem to believe in themselves, with Yankee labor rep Austin Wells having a meeting with the team yesterday and doubling down on a message of solidarity and strength.

Deputy director Bruce Meyer was just given the job as head honcho, but all the same, the player reps and eight-man Executive Committee will still drive most of the PA’s decisions, making Wells an outsized leader on the field and off.

The Jays have claimed Ben Cowles off waivers from the Cubs. The Cubs DFAed him Sunday. The Jays put Bowden Francis on the 60-day IL to make room on the 40-man roster. Francis is going to be out all season.

Cowles has two options.

He’s a right-handed-hitting infielder, 26 years old. He hasn’t played in the majors yet. Last year he hit .235/.300/.371 with 9 home runs in 128 games in Triple-A

Duane Pesice, at Bleed Cubbie Blue, has a profile on him here.

He’s a lifetime .268/.365/.426 in four seasons of Minor League ball, with 30 home runs and 158 RBI in 1,128 at-bats. Not great, but not too shabby. He could hit 1-15 dingers in The Show, hit .250 or so, walk enough to be .300+ OBP man. He’ll take a bag if he can. Cowles is a slightly-less-effective Nico Hoerner type. He’ll back up or start at short/second in Iowa.

His contact bat helps his cause, but Cowles just doesn’t bring enough to the table to beat out the people in front of him. But he’s a fine platoon partner with Triantos and backup at second and short, and can play third in a pinch.

He was #14 on Baseball America’s top Cubs prospect list last year

Baseball Prospects says:

Prospects TLDR: Cowles’ Double-A stats are a bit of a mirage, but he’s a capable shortstop defender who provides enough offense to consider him a low-impact bench infielder.

It looks like he will be battling Leo Jimenez for the utility infielder role this spring.