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Welcome to week 25 of our 2026 NL Central Power Rankings — let’s rank some teams!

1. Milwaukee Brewers (93-57); 5-1 this week; 100.0% chance to make postseason (FanGraphs)

The Brewers locked up their postseason spot and have a magic number of just two to clinch the NL Central after they swept the Cubs and took two of three from the Reds in a strong homestand.

William Contreras led the offense with three homers and 12 RBIs, while Jake Bauers, Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, and Brice Turang added two homers each. Chourio also led the team with 13 hits overall, including three doubles.

Most of the Brewers’ rotation had a strong week, as Robert Gasser, Logan Henderson, Jacob Misiorowski, and Dustin May combined for 27 innings across five starts (Gasser made two), allowing just three earned runs and striking out 31. Garrett Stallings picked up a save with three shutout innings in Milwaukee’s 20-0 win over the Reds, while JoJo Romero, Chad Patrick, and DL Hall also turned in scoreless

Milwaukee now departs for their last road trip of the season, as they’ll visit the Pirates, Orioles, and Phillies for three games each over the next week and a half.

2. Chicago Cubs (83-67); 2-4 this week; 99.0% chance to make postseason

The Cubs are hanging in the fight for the top NL Wild Card spot, as they’re currently tied with the Phillies at 83-67 this season. Chicago was swept by the Brewers to begin the week but bounced back to take two of three at Wrigley against the Pirates.

Pedro Ramírez led the offense with two homers and two doubles this week, while Alex Bregman led the team with eight hits, including a homer and three doubles. Michael Busch, Miguel Amaya, and Pete Crow-Armstrong also homered.

Shota Imanaga had the only quality start of the week, going six innings with two runs allowed and four strikeouts. David Peterson went 4 1/3 innings with one run allowed and four strikeouts, while Javier Assad, Aaron Civale, Colin Rea, Ryan Rolison, and Trent Thornton combined for 11 1/3 scoreless innings for the bullpen, striking out 11.

Chicago now hosts the Braves for three games before visiting the Reds for three games over the weekend.

3. Pittsburgh Pirates (75-75); 4-2 this week; 0.1% chance to make postseason

The Pirates had a solid week as they’re on pace to finish at (or above) .500 for the first time since 2018. They spent the entire week in Chicago, sweeping the White Sox and dropping two of three against the Cubs.

Five players had a homer this week, including Oneil Cruz, Rafael Flores, Ryan O’Hearn, Bryan Reynolds, and Esmerlyn Valdez. Cruz led the team with nine hits and drove in five, while Flores added eight hits.

Jared Jones turned in another strong start, going seven scoreless with just a hit and two walks allowed, striking out eight. Lake Bachar continues to function as an opener, going 1 2/3 scoreless innings, while Paul Skenes went seven frames, allowing two runs and striking out four. Mason Montgomery led the bullpen, picking up three saves over three scoreless innings.

Pittsburgh now returns home for their final homestand of the season, hosting the Brewers, Royals, and Cardinals for three games each over the next week and a half.

4. St. Louis Cardinals (74-76); 2-4 this week; 0.0% chance to make postseason

The Cardinals had a rough week, as they were swept by the lowly Giants in San Francisco before taking two of three from the White Sox at home.

Leo Bernal led the squad with two homers as part of a six-hit week, adding a double and driving in seven. Alec Burleson had the only other homer, also doubling twice and driving in six. Joshua Báez and Nathan Church each added three doubles.

Michael McGreevy made a pair of solid starts, spanning 12 2/3 innings with four runs allowed (three earned) and 10 strikeouts. Quinn Mathews went six innings with two runs allowed and four strikeouts, Andre Pallante went five innings with one run allowed and four strikeouts, and Kyle Leahy worked three scoreless innings with four strikeouts. Luis Gastelum, Gordon Graceffo, and Ryne Stanek combined for 11 scoreless innings for the bullpen, striking out 11.

St. Louis wraps up their last homestand of the year this week, as they’ll host the Giants and Nationals for three games each.

5. Cincinnati Reds (70-79); 1-5 this week; 0.0% chance to make postseason

The Reds had another rough week, as they were swept by the Dodgers in Los Angeles and dropped two of three against the Brewers in Milwaukee, salvaging the series finale on Sunday.

Elly De La Cruz and Eugenio Suárez each slugged three homers this week, with De La Cruz adding three doubles as part of a nine-hit week. Juan Brito also homered, and Sal Stewart added seven hits (all singles).

Chase Burns was just about the only bright spot for the rotation, making a pair of starts totaling six innings with two runs allowed and 10 strikeouts. Tejay Antone, Brock Burke, and Emilio Pagán combined for six scoreless innings out of the bullpen, striking out four.

Cincinnati now heads home for the last time in 2026, as they’ll host the Dodgers for four games and the Cubs for three games.

Good morning, baseball fans!

A new week of San Francisco Giants baseball starts today, with the team heading back out on the road for the last time this season.

First up is a three-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals, followed by a day off on Thursday and then a three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

I would usually pick a Dodgers series for the one that I’m most interested in this week. But given the way things are going, and the way things went against the Cardinals last week, I’m picking that series.

Which series are you most interested in this week?

What time do the Giants play today?

The Giants begin this series against the Cardinals this afternoon at 4:45 p.m. PT.

Good morning, Purple Row!

Today and tomorrow, we are trying something a little different with our morning lineup. Rather than having one singular Rockpile that contains a feature story, minor league recap, and links to Rockies news, we’re going to split it into three parts:

• Scaling the Rocks at 6am MT: Links to Rockies and MLB News
• Rockpile at 10am MT: Daily feature story
• Daily Pebble Report at 12pm MT: Minor league recap from the night before
  • We will still have the weekly Pebble Report feature story on Tuesdays, but that will be renamed the “Pebble Report Spotlight.”

You’ll still get the same information, but it’ll be broken into smaller chunks instead of one long thread.

This is not something we’ll run regularly at this time, as we’re still in the experimentation phase, but we just wanted to make you aware.

But on to what’s happening!

Country Roads, Take Me Home

Yesterday, the Rockies lost once again, pushing their losing streak to seven games as they went 0-6 on their road trip and were outscored 46-17.

Today, they embark on their final homestand of the season. They will play four against the San Diego Padres, three against the Arizona Diamondbacks and three against the Seattle Mariners. Then, they will embark on a quick three-game road trip to end the season against the Chicago White Sox.

The quest for 63 wins is still alive, but it is exponentially more challenging than it was a few weeks ago. The Mariners are the only team not in the thick of a playoff race, so it will be a brutal push to the end.

Rockies News & Links

• Hill’s calm demeanor has roots in pee-wee football | MLB.com — Jaden Hill has been a stalwart in the Rockies bullpen this year, and Thomas Harding asked him about his origin story. For Hill, it came from growing up playing pee-wee football and learning how to not only find weaknesses in his opponents, but also stay calm in the face of danger.
• With Goodman raking, but Rox reeling, backstop focused on bigger picture | MLB.com — The Rockies lost 11-7 after a spectacular late-inning bullpen implosion. In the midst of it, though, Hunter Goodman hit his 38th home run of the season. Thomas Harding asked Goodman to shed light on his accomplishment, and how the team is dealing in the midst of a streak that has seen them lose seven in a row, 11 straight on the road, and 19 of their last 24.
• Rockies GM Byrnes talks ups and downs of Colorado’s season | MLB.com — Rockies GM Josh Byrnes was in Detroit over the weekend and offered his insights on the current Rockies situation, as well as their 2026 season as a whole. He identified three shortcomings (offense, defense, pitching) and one strength (Warren Schaeffer).
• Ryan McMahon’s reunion ‘normal baseball, while Gabriel Hughes faces off with Aaron Judge | Denver Gazette ($) — Kevin Henry traveled with the Rockies to New York when they faced the Yankees last week. He was able to connect with old friend Ryan McMahon, who was facing his old team for the first time since being traded at the 2025 deadline. Additionally, he asked Gabriel Hughes about facing Aaron Judge, who had just been activated off the IL on Tuesday, and Connor Norby about what makes for a stellar batting practice (something that helped Norby get in the starting lineup on Tuesday).

Around Baseball

• Diamondbacks designate Lourdes Gurriel Jr. for assignment | Arizona Sports — The Diamondbacks are pushing for a playoff spot, and cut ties with Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who was a key player in their 2023 World Series run. However, since then, he’s been injury-prone — including an ACL tear in 2024 — and the Snakes decided it was time to move on.
• The perks and heartaches of being a dad and an MLB player | The Athletic (Gift Link) — Stephen Nesbitt writes an excellent article about the joys and challenges of being a big leaguer and a dad. He spoke with 15 players about their experiences, including old friend Trevor Story.
• WPBL Takes Adaptability to the Next Level | Kick the Concrete — Purple Row’s own Joelle Milholm covered the WPBL this season for Kick the Concrete. This is her third article in the series, and she talks about the positional versatility of all the players. You can read her other articles here and here, as well as a feature she wrote for SB Nation.

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

Seth Lugo got back in the win column on Friday, writes Jaylon Thompson.

Lugo threw his four-seamer 38% of the time during his first trip through the order. The pitch also registered 6-of-9 first-pitch strikes, per Baseball Savant.

“I think, you know, it makes the hitters be a little more aggressive,” Lugo said. “So then, the spin and off-speed pitches tend to work better when they’re trying to hit fastballs. So we were trying to challenge early in the count and make sure they are quality pitches.”

Noah Cameron looked good in Sunday’s loss, writes Ken Powtak at MLB.com.

“He battles, that’s probably his Number 1 characteristic,” Quatraro said. “He’s exceptionally competitive and he’s been on a really good run here lately the way he throws the ball. He has a lot of confidence and we have a lot of confidence in him.”

Overall, Cameron threw 85 pitches, 57 for strikes, relying a bit more on his slider than usual.

“Obviously, a long first inning. I was thankful to get out of there,” he said.

Carter Jensen tied a Royals rookie record with his 24th home run.

“That’s a phenomenal record,” Royals manager Matt Quatraro said. “We know that he’s been on a tear here offensively as of late. So good for him. Not only that, but it tied the game.”

Jensen has 13 hits, five home runs and 10 RBIs in September. He leads all American League rookies in extra-base hits (57) and doubles (31). He also ranks second with 71 RBIs, and third with 24 home runs.

“He’s swinging the (expletive) out of it,” Royals starter Randy Dobnak said. “He can do it pretty well. And what he’s been doing is what he’s been doing all year. I mean, this month, he has four or five pumps. Just swinging it really well.”

And Bobby Witt Jr. is reaching milestones with his legs.

Witt began his day by beating out an infield hit before he stole second base for his 40th bag of the season. The All-Star shortstop, who reached that number for the second time in his career (49 in 2023), is one of just five players in franchise history with multiple 40 stolen-base campaigns. 

With 13 games remaining in the regular season, Witt is just two homers shy of the third 20 HR/40 SB season in franchise history. His 2023 campaign (30/49) and Carlos Beltran’s 2003 performance (26/41) are the only two to date.

Jac Caglianone returned to the lineup on Sunday.

“Yeah, definitely feel better,” Caglianone said pregame. “You know, with these, it’s different for everybody going through them. So I’m glad there was no IL (injured list) or anything like that. Still a few games left in the year, so I’m excited and very happy to be back.”

Kevin O’Brien at Royals Keep writes that Jensen is becoming a long-term star for the Royals.

Payton Tolle had an immaculate inning in the first against the Royals.

The Quad Cities River Bandits win Game 1 of the Midwest League Championship Series.

Former Royals pitcher Matt Strahm has knee surgery.

The Brewers and Rays clinch playoff spots.

Giants slugger Rafael Devers is out for the year with a core muscle injury.

The Diamondbacks designate outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. for assignment.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits his first home run in Toronto this year.

Is the decline of starting pitcher innings bad for baseball?

The Tigers plan to have Justin Verlander start one more time this year.

Can Jose Altuve reach 3,000 career hits?

The Athletics interview Mike Rizzo and Billy Owens for their GM job.

The Giants ownership situation is complicated.

How the system traps and exploits Dominican baseball players.

Alexander Zverev beats Ben Shelton to win the US Open.

USA wins its fifth consecutive women’s FIBA World Cup title.

This could be a good week to see the “false dawn.”

Prediction markets are becoming professionalized and harder to beat.

Burning Man is facing a midlife crisis.

Your song of the day is The Orwells with Who Needs You.

Triple-A: Memphis Redbirds (STL) 3, Norfolk Tides 2

The Tides fell, with starter Juaron Watts-Brown taking the loss. He didn’t pitch too badly, though, giving his team five innings with three runs allowed on six hits and two walks. The righty, acquired from the Blue Jays in 2025 in exchange for Seranthony Dominguez, had a 5.76 ERA in Double-A, but struggled to a 9.26 ERA in Triple-A over six starts. After JWB, Yaqui Rivera, Albert Suárez and Yosver Zulueta threw three scoreless.

The Tides scored their two runs in the sixth inning, courtesy of one big swing. Jud Fabian singled, ahead of one Creed Willems, who happily got a hanging curveball and went yard. It was the catcher’s eighteenth four-bagger this season. Other Tides batters who recorded hits were Christian Franklin, Silas Ardoin and Tavian Josenberger.

Box Score

Double-A: Chesapeake Baysox 3, Richmond Flying Squirrels (SFG) 1

On their last day of the season, the Baysox pulled off a win with a three-run comeback in the eighth. But first we’ll start with pitching. Starter Patrick Reilly, reinstated in late July after Tommy John, posted a clean 5.2 one-run innings, bringing down his season ERA at Double-A to 3.63 ERA in eight starts. Reilly also struck out seven. Afterwards, 3 1/3 scoreless were tossed by a combination of Richard Guasch, Keegan Gillies, Alex Pham and Brock Moore.

This game was 1-0 Richmond until the top of the eighth, when the Baysox strung together the winning three-run rally. Griff O’Ferrall singled, Frederick Bencosme walked and then, with two outs, Wehiwa Aloy brought them all home with an Earl Weaver Special. That was all the offense the Baysox would get, and it’d be all they needed. O’Ferrall, Estrada and Aloy finished with two hits apiece.

Chesapeake ends its season 67-68, fifth in the Eastern League’s Southwest division.

Box Score

Today’s Schedule

• The Tides are off today, but they’ll pick back up on Tuesday, against the Charlotte Knights.

Fret not with that hovering malaise permeating from St. Petersburg’s aftermath. The ambient rawness of a series loss in Tampa is still fresh, but we have the perfect cure. It’s time to unveil my “All October Squad” throughout the various decades.

This might be the only list you’ll ever find without the likes of Bagwell and Biggio. Bagwell in 106 post season plate appearances, hit only .226 with a pair of home runs. Biggio also had two longballs over 167 at-bats, hitting just .234.   

The lineup card has been submitted to the home plate ump, so sit back and enjoy. Without further ado, here’s the best to do it for the Astros in October:

1.         George Springer.                                     CF.

Admit it, you miss hearing “Springer Dinger!” George’s epic 2017 Series in which he launched five home runs off Dodgers pitching is the stuff of legend. All told, he’d accumulate 19 HR, 38 RBI along with 43 runs across 63 post season games as an Astro.

2.       Alex Bregman.                                         3B.

88 hits in the postseason.    Enough said!

3.      Yordan Alvarez.                                         DH

The intimidation factor will always be there, as will stunning 3 run blast against Seattle in the 2022 ALDS.

4.      Jose Altuve.                                               2B.

Not surprising, the newly minted member of the 2,500 club, leads all Astros with 118 post season hits.   

5.      Carlos Correa                                       SS

Clutch. 18 home runs in 79 postseason games, with an engagement proposal on one knee to boot.

6.      Michael Brantley.                                LF

On his tombstone, it will say, “professional baseball hitter” Believe it or not, he actually has more postseason hits than Yordan, even with injuries cutting him short.

7.       Yuli Gurriel                                         1B

87 hits in 85 post season games.      

8.      Jason Castro                                      C

Go back and watch the 2021 postseason. Castro was clutch off the bench, registering a monster 1.159 OPS over 6 games.    

9.      Billy Hatcher                                   RF

Billy’s game tying solo home run in the 14th inning against the Mets is legendary. Every Astros fan remembers the left field foul pole shot! He also had 7 hits in that series with New York.    

SP     Mike Scott

Yes, Verlander has 10 wins in a Houston uniform, but Scott made his lone post-season appearance in 1986 count, so much so that he was named NLCS MVP even in the series loss. Scott’s combined stats from Games 1 & 4 are insane. Two complete games, 1 run allowed and 19 K’s.    

Closer:       Ryan Pressly

Shakira’s hips don’t lie and neither do the stats for Pressly. Simply put, he has the most saves in October for the Astros all-time with 14.    

Let us know your all-time Astros October lineup in the comments.

On September 6th, both the Palm Beach Cardinals and the Peoria Chiefs played their last game of their seasons. Palm Beach ended with a 13-5 win, finishing with a 67-65 record. This was not good enough to make the playoffs. The Chiefs ended their season with a 3-2 loss and a 63-68 record. Obviously this was not good enough to make the playoffs. The Springfield Cardinals season ended yesterday, however they were good enough to make the playoffs. For some reason, minor league playoff stats don’t count which I think is dumb, but I will still wait to share the Springfield stats for the end of the Memphis Redbirds season, which doesn’t end until the 24th. In case you missed it, I covered the rookie leagues earlier this month.

Palm Beach Cardinals

Yairo Padilla, SS – 29 G, 128 PAs, .281/.354/.474, 10.2 BB%, 18.8 K%, .193 ISO, .333 BABIP, 118 wRC+

Padilla got off to a very late start since his season didn’t start until late June. Technically, I could put Padilla in the Peoria section, because that’s where he ended his season, but he only played in 4 games and the stats weren’t good, so felt more appropriate for him to be in this section. Nice thing is that, although the injury was inconvenient, I’m not sure it actually delayed his progress much. I don’t think he’s promoted after just 128 PAs if he never got injured. I’m not sure he would have gotten promoted a whole lot quicker and he’s still starting next season in High A next season.

Ryan Mitchell, OF – 19 (VEB’s #20 prospect)

Stats: 107 G, 496 PAs, .231/.389/.365, 20.2 BB%, 33.1 K%, .135 ISO, .353 BABIP, 112 wRC+

There are very few batting lines you could conjure up that are a less exciting 112 wRC+ than what Mitchell has put together. With that said, context is important. For starters, I imagine most players in his position get a trial run in the complex leagues first. I don’t know how many games are in a high school season, but it is a lot, lot less than 107 games. The Cardinals threw him into the fire and he came out with an above average hitting line. I would say there’s a fairly good chance the Cardinals will repeat him at this level. If he looks like a different hitter, a quick promotion may be in order, but I’d certainly want him to strike out less than 33% of them before a promotion.

Alexander Frias, OF – 18 (acquired in Dustin May trade)

Stats (CPX): 32 G, 137 PAs, .441/.518/.678, 11.7 BB%, 15.3 K%, .237 ISO, .516 BABIP, 189 wRC+

Low A: 236 PAs, .240/.339/.397, 11 BB%, 23.7 K%, .157 ISO, .301 BABIP, 96 wRC+

It probably goes without saying, but his complex league stats were with the Brewers and a little more than half of his Low A stats were with the Brewers as well. I didn’t feel the need to separate his Low A stats with the Brewers and Cardinals because I really don’t think the Cardinals made any changes in the middle of the season. But he was both better and worse as a Cardinal. Better, because his 101 wRC+ was an improvement over the 92 wRC+. Worse, because he struck out more (27.3%) and had less power (.129), but did carry a much higher BABIP. So BABIP was the only reason he was better here. It’s all a small sample size anyway, and I’ll much less certain of his placement to begin next season than I am for Mitchell.

Trevor Condon, OF – 18 (1st round pick, 13th overall, 2026 draft)

Stats: 7 G, 31 PAs, .321/.387/.536, 9.7 BB%, 19.4 K%, .214 ISO, .214 ISO, .381 BABIP, 142 wRC+

Well alrighty then. If you’re like me, this is the first time you were aware of how Condon did in Low A. It’s weird, because I knew he was down there, and yet I never checked his progress. Honestly, kind of unfortunate that the season has ended in his case, I want more. Very, very good start though. Probably not good enough to start next year in High A, because you know it’s seven games, but can’t ask for more.

Dee Kennedy, 2B – 21 (4th round, 2026 draft)

Stats: 21 G, 92 PAs, .143/.283/.208, 14.1 BB%, 21.7 K%, .065 ISO, .179 BABIP, 47 wRC+

Not the greatest start I’ve ever seen, but given the small sample, that Kennedy was playing more baseball than he’s ever played in his life and that his K/BB numbers were still really good, I don’t think we can read anything into this. I also have no idea how to handle super low BABIPs in the minors, especially with less than 100 PAs. For what it’s worth, his xwOBA was .284 which suggests he was unlucky, though still not great.

Owen Henne, IF – 21 (6th round, 2026 draft)

Stats: 16 G, 67 PAs, .218/.358/.509, 13.4 BB%, 16.4 K%, .291 ISO, .200 BABIP, 127 wRC+

I let the stats surprise me and I transcribe them the way you read them, so I first saw that Henne was batting .218 and then saw the .358 OBP and thought, okay another high BB guy with no power. Then I saw the slugging percentage. Probably not gonna have a player’s stats surprise me as much as this. He hit 4 homers in 16 games. He didn’t have a set position, so I think he just kind of played his way into playing as much as he did.

Jayden Lobliner, C – 22 (9th round, 2026 draft)

Stats: 14 G, 54 PAs, .220/.278/.460, 5.6 BB%, 44.4 K%, .240 ISO, .318 BABIP, 89 wRC+

Okay, I stand corrected. Immediately. Lobliner’s batting stats are a real rollercoaster. He hit four homers in 14 games, but unlike Henne, he didn’t walk. Also he struck out almost half the time. This is a line you can only get when you have a 14 game sample. His college stats suggest he’s not much of a walker. Feels like he was probably drafted for his defense.

Jacob Haley, RHP – 20 (11th round, 2026 draft)

Stats: 5 G (3 GS), 11 IP, 18.8 K%, 18.8 BB%, 35.7 GB%, .148 BABIP, 4.91 ERA/8.13 FIP/6.57 xFIP

Haley presumably pitched, unlike most other pitchers drafted, because he threw just 27.2 IP between his college season at South Alabama and in a summer league. The year before, he threw 33.1 IP. So his 11 innings gives him a career high of 37.2 IP, and I’m not entirely sure if the Cardinals want to attempt a starter route with him, but clearly next year would still be more of a first time through the order approach anyway. He can probably throw 60-70 innings next season, whether entirely in relief or not.

Dallis Moran, RHP – 21 (16th round, 2026 draft)

Stats: 9 G, 13.2 IP, 22.4 K%, 17.2 BB%, 37.1 GB%, .176 BABIP, 3.29 ERA/5.01 FIP/6.02 xFIP

Moran missed pitching in live games entirely in 2025, and pitched 28 innings in his collegiate season. Whatever formula the Cardinals used, they determine Moran could throw about 40 innings this season, which is why his season continued. Like Haley, he wasn’t very good, but I suppose it would be stranger for a 16th rounder to dominate right away (or at all).

Andrew Dutkanyvch, RHP – 22

Stats: 11 G (7 GS), 40.2 IP, 26.7 K%, 13.6 BB%, 39 GB%, .293 BABIP, 5.09 ERA/4.41 FIP/4.73 xFIP

I’m ignoring his complex league stats, which are absolutely dreadful, but I’m pretty sure those are rehab appearances, which are just about making sure your arm doesn’t fall off. With that said, I am comfortable calling this a step back for Dutkanych, a player some VEBers wanted to put in the top 20. I kind of thought he already figured out Low A last season, but these are worse stats than last year. The one positive is that his innings did jump from 17.2 IP to 46 IP, so from an innings standpoint, he’s probably on track. I’m hoping he’s in Peoria next year though.

Sebastian Dos Santos, SS – 18

Stats: 55 G, 255 PAs, .246/.400/.437, 17.3 BB%, 23.5 K%, .191 ISO, .295 BABIP, 129 wRC+

Dos Santos began his season in the complex league and dominated there for a 142 wRC+. I only shared Frias’ stats because he was in the Brewers system. You already knew Dos Santos dominated the complex league. It’s pretty cool how many teenagers I’ve covered in full season ball. Not just teenagers either, these are teenagers who will certainly be on next year’s top 20 list.

Jonathan Mejia, 2B – 21

Stats: 76 G, 321 PAs, .220/.368/.424, 18.4 BB%, 27.4 K%, .204 ISO, .277 BABIP, 114 wRC+

Unfortunately, Mejia’s season ended about a month early, as he played in his last game on August 5th. Though it has taken him much longer than I think the Cardinals hoped for when they first promoted him to Low A back in 2023, Mejia has played well enough to be in Peoria next season finally.

Miguel Hernandez, SS – 18

Stats (CPX): 49 G, 191 PAs, .270/.435/.534, 20.4 BB%, 20.9 K%, .264 ISO, .313 BABIP, 137 wRC+

Low A: 25 G, 103 PAs, .304/.466/.494, 19.4 BB%, 26.2 K%, .190 ISO, .440 BABIP, 163 wRC+

In Hernandez’s case, I’m pretty sure he hadn’t been promoted to Low A the last time I did a minor league update, so you get his complex league performance too. Happily though, you can see that he hit much better after being promoted, albeit entirely BABIP-related. So I’m pretty sure he’ll still be in Low A when next season starts, although it will be an extremely good sign if the Cardinals deem him ready for High A right at the start.

Ethan Young, RHP – 22

Stats: 10 GS, 31 IP, 25.3 K%, 11.3 BB%, 35.2 GB%, .407 BABIP, 7.26 ERA/4.32 FIP/4.79 xFIP

Young’s season got derailed very early on in the season. He got injured midseason, not pitching in a game from May until late August. He only pitched in two games at the end of the season. Who knows how long he pitched injured and he didn’t pitch particularly well in his last two games either. So it’s very nearly the same as if he missed this entire season to injury.

Payton Graham, RHP – 22

Stats: 16 (15 GS), 53.2 IP, 21.6 K%, 12.7 BB%, 35.7 GB%, .320 BABIP, 5.70 ERA/5.28 FIP/5.64 xFIP

Graham did not pitch particularly well, although he showed flashes, but I imagine from the Cardinals’ perspective, the fact that Graham stayed healthy all year is the most important thing. If you remember, the Cardinals drafted Graham last season knowing he was, at the time, recovering from Tommy John surgery. He had thrown just one game in college before getting injured. He threw an additional 9.2 IP in the complex league, utterly destroying the competition, so he threw 63.1 IP in all this season.

J.P. Cabrera, C – 19

Stats (CPX): 39 G, 136 PAs, .257/.341/.363, 9.6 BB%, 19.1 K%, .106 ISO, .315 BABIP, 76 wRC+

Low A: 25 G, 100 PAs, .213/.278/.315, 7 BB%, 22 K%, .101 ISO, .273 BABIP, 61 wRC+

I honestly probably didn’t even share Cabrera’s stats in the last update, because they most likely didn’t stand out to me. I don’t like to share bad stats. But the fact that this 19-year-old catcher was promoted to Low A despite poor hitting stats is worth pointing out. They clearly think highly of his defense.

Brannelli Franco, RHP – 19

Stats CPX: 9 G (5 GS), 22 IP, 16.7 BB%, 21.7 K%, 51.5 GB%, .426 BABIP, 10.64 ERA/8.14 FIP/7.28 xFIP

Low A: 4 G (2 GS), 15 IP, 22.7 K%, 7.6 BB%, 46.7 GB%, .256 BABIP, 3.00 ERA/5.50 FIP/5.00 xFIP

This is… confusing! Franco was unimaginably bad in the complex league, not missing any bats and walking a ton. His one positive was that he induced groundballs, but he probably allowed a lot of hard contact. Behind-the-scenes though, the Cardinals saw something shift in him, and he was promoted to Low A and… he pitched fairly well! The groundballs stayed and the K/BB significantly improved. No idea how this happened.

Jake Shelagowski, RHP – 22

Stats: 11 G (2 GS), 34.2 IP, 24.7 K%, 11 BB%, 43.8 GB%, .344 BABIP, 5.71 ERA/4.12 FIP/4.95 xFIP

Last year’s 13th round pick, Shelagowski pitched okay, actually pretty damn close to how I imagine a 13th round college pick to perform in Low A. Given his age, you’d hope for better though. He is currently injured.

Peoria

Leonel Sequera, RHP – 20

Stats: 18 GS, 79.2 IP, 23.8 K%, 10.2 BB%, 49.8 GB%, .366 BABIP, 7.23 ERA/5.91 FIP/4.59 xFIP

Well I certainly don’t know what to make of this line. He’s actually striking out more batters than last season and though he has more walks, it’s not a lot more. He’s getting a smiliar amount of groundballs. However, he did not allow homers last year. He allowed a ton this year. He allowed 17 homers in his 18 games pitched, with 25.8% of flyballs turning into a homer. He was a victim of the home run insanity that occurred in the minors this season.

Cade Crossland, LHP – 22

Stats Low A: 20 G, 72 IP, 34.3 K%, 17.9 BB%, 38.8 GB%, .324 BABIP, 5.38 ERA/4.49 FIP/4.55 xFIP

High A: 5 GS, 25.1 IP, 29.3 K%, 12.1 BB%, 41.1 GB%, .268 BABIP, 1.42 ERA/3.20 FIP/4.92 xFIP

Crossland seems to be following the Braden Davis track. Don’t ever allow hitters to make contact, even if it means you will walk a lot of batters. Granted, significant improvement in his five starts at the High A level in terms of walks, even if you want it still lower. I’m not sure how positively I’d look at his season without those 5 starts, but well it’s a harder level and he acted like it wasn’t.

Jack Martinez, RHP – 23 (Acquired in Nolan Arenado trade)

Stats (Low A): 16 GS, 60.2 IP, 32.6 K%, 12.9 BB%, 30.8 GB%, .280 BABIP, 4.30 ERA/4.03 FIP/4.76 xFIP

High A: 8 G, 33 IP, 23.2 K%, 11.3 BB%, 34.1 GB%, .273 BABIP, 5.18 ERA/6.07 FIP/5.88 xFIP

Now this, this is what I expect when someone gets promoted to a higher level. I will commend Martinez for also improving upon his walk rate, but he missed a lot less bats and didn’t get better results. Martinez is a bit like found money though as I really didn’t envision a future MLB player in return for Nolan Arenado with his contract.

Brayden Smith, OF – 22 (acquired for Nic Raquet)

Stats (Low A): 81 G, 356 PAs, .247/.363/.402, 14 BB%, 26.1 K%, .155 ISO, .328 BABIP, 109 wRC+

High A: 24 G, 101 PAs, .261/.327/.457, 7.9 BB%, 32.7 K%, .196 ISO, .375 BABIP, 98 wRC+

Raquet was released by the Orioles two weeks ago, so even though Smith might not become anything, I think the Orioles wish they could take this trade back. It does sort of seem like strikeouts will be a problem, maybe his biggest problem to making the majors.

Andrew Williamson, OF – 20 (2nd round, 2026 draft)

Stats: 20 G, 88 PAs, .189/.295/.419, 11.4 BB%, 29.5 K%, .230 ISO, .200 BABIP, 78 wRC+

Sort of a mixed debut pro season for Williamson, who was rather aggressively placed in High A to begin his career. He had plenty of power with 5 homers in his 20 games. But BABIP was very much not his friend, resulting in a well below average line. This was considered his age 20 season, but he did turn 21 on July 11th, so he’s among the oldest “20”-year-olds.

Caden Ferraro, OF – 21 (3rd round, 2026 draft)

Stats: 21 G, 85 PAs, .216/.306/.405, 10.6 BB%, ,22.4 K%, .189 ISO, .245 BABIP, 80 wRC+

Oddly similar to Williamson, but not as much power and a higher BABIP. But the same general concept is there. Ferraro had power and actually didn’t strike out that much, but lots of baseballs found gloves.

Jacob Odle, RHP – 22

Stats: 15 GS, 33 K%, 17.6 BB%, 39.1 GB%, .283 BABIP, .283 BABIP, 3.86 ERA/5.37 FIP/5.11 xFIP

Odle also made 9 appearances in Low A at the beginning of this season, striking out 36% of batters with a 1.91 ERA. The walks kind of exploded in High A and he sort of stopped getting grounders, but he still struck out a third of the hitters he faced. Better yet, he increased his innings from 51.2 IP to 96 innings, putting him in a good position by the time he’d be ready for the big leagues.

Brian Holiday, RHP – 23

Stats (Three Levels): 19 G (17 GS), 26.4 K%, 5.1 BB%, 48.3 GB%, .302 BABIP, 4.95 ERA/4.76 FIP/3.86 xFIP

Holiday pitched in 12 of those 19 games at Low A, and an additional four games in the complex league, and his stats are actually fairly similar at those two levels. The rookie league stats are a bit better, but it’s close. And he finished with three games at High A, which are a step down, although he still carries a low walk rate. I didn’t feel like listing the stats to three different levels, just know the High A stats drag it a down a bit (although he had a 3.94 ERA)

Josh Kross, C/1B – 23

Stats: 86 G, 375 PAs, .252/.341/.438, 10.9 BB%, 25.1 K%, .185 ISO, .314 BABIP, 99 wRC+

Kross’ season actually ended in early August to injury and he hasn’t played since. If you’re wondering how much he played at catcher, he started 31 games. 38 games were at 1B and 16 games were at DH. Given his defensive status, I suspect he’ll have to hit better than this.

Ryan Weingartner, IF – 21

Stats. (Low A): 85 G, 382 PAs, .226/.366/.384, 16.5 BB%, 22 K%, .158 ISO, .269 BABIP, 108 wRC+

High A: 15 G, 52 PAs, .182/.308/.227, 15.4 BB%, 25 K%, .045 ISO, .258 BABIP, 51 wRC+

Last year’s 8th round pick is on schedule even with his struggles at Peoria. His performance at Palm Beach wasn’t terribly exciting, but it was an overall good showing and you hope that the low BABIP was partially unlucky, because that line with a good BABIP would actually be an exciting batting line.

Patrick Galle, RHP – 22 (acquired in the trade for Sonny Gray)

Stats: 37 G, 41.2 IP, 20.9 K%, 18 BB%, 40.2 GB%, .339 BABIP, 6.91 ERA/5.51 FIP/6.55 xFIP

Well his utter dominance in Low A did not really carry over to Peoria, although you can’t blame the Cardinals for promoting him. He struck out 60% of batters and that is not a typo.

Ty Van Dyke, RHP – 22

Stats: 16 G, 70.2 IP, 23.2 K%, 11.3 BB%, 39.3 GB%, .332 BABIP, 5.60 ERA/5.10 FIP/5.35 xFIP

Van Dyke was last year’s 10th round pick and he actually had zero issues at Palm Beach, throwing in 5 games to end last season and 7 starts to begin this season. In his second attempt, he managed to strike out a bunch of hitters. As you’ve probably picked up, the offensive environment is rather high, so his stats are not as discouraging as normal.

Sammy Hernandez, C – 22

Stats: 65 G, 253 PAs, .279/.411/.529, 17 BB%, 18.6 K%, .250 ISO, .311 BABIP, 140 wRC+

A season after posting a .064 ISO all year, Hernandez hits 11 homers and 18 doubles in 65 games this season. I don’t know what to make of this dude, because the Cardinals refuse to promote him. He seemingly excelled in 2024 at the Low A level, but then repeated the level in 2025. Then his power disappeared. Confusingly, he saw High A both at the end of 2024 and 2025. So I would assume he’s in Springfield next year, but maybe not!

And I’m going to stop there. Even with a more expansive list, I know I’ve chosen to omit some players who could be posted, but at a certain point, I have to pay attention to the clock.

Happy Monday, everyone! Hope you had a great weekend. Some players might not be feeling so good this week, as they are seeing their seasons end early as the need for rest or surgery has forced them into an early offseason. As we’ll read below, both Byron Buxton and Rafael Devers are out for the remainder of their seasons due to injury. We’ve also recently seen superstar Shohei Ohtani hit the bench to hopefully recover so he can help the Dodgers in the postseason. This is not a general statement on the grind of baseball, or how players are pushing themselves too hard, but it is always interesting to see players wait until their teams are out of postseason contention before allowing themselves to be taken off the roster for much-needed recovery or surgery.

We look at that and more below, including how one injured player — Justin Verlander — is hoping to come back in time to pitch one last time before he retires.

So let’s get into today’s links!

• Jay Jaffe looks at the timely revival of Teoscar Hernandez.
• Keegan Matheson shares that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has finally gotten his first home run at home for the season. It just took until September.
• Molly Burkhardt reports that Willson Contreras has been activated from the IL by the Red Sox.
• David Schoenfield looks at the 10 players who made the biggest positive difference for their team.
• Dan Hayes reports that Byron Buxton will undergo season-ending hip surgery. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• Love to see things like this.

• Former MLB player Jonathan Schoop has been sentenced to 30 months for illegal possession of firearms and ammunition. (Curaçao Chronicle)
• Five things Ben Clemens liked (or didn’t like) this past week.
• Brent Maguire shares the six teams who most defied expectations this season… for better or worse.
• Karl Rasmussen looks at which players have been the most disappointing this season.
• Rafael Devers’ season is over due to a core muscle injury. (AP)
• Tyler Kepner assesses why Walt Weiss deserves to be manager of the year. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• I don’t think he intended for this to work so well.

• White Sox scouting director Mike Shirley has resigned amid verbal harassment allegations. Story by Brittany Ghiroli and Keith Law. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• David Laurila talks to several starting pitchers about the decline in starting innnings and what it means for baseball.
• Max Ralph shares that the Diamondbacks have designated Lourdes Gurriel Jr. for assignment.
• Stephen J. Nesbitt talks to MLB players about the positives and negatives of being a father while also being a professional ballplayer. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• Ryan Phillips revisits the trade deadline five weeks later.
• Tigers’ starter Justin Verlander is on the path to make at least one final start before he retires. (AP)
• Brendan Kuty looks at how the Yankees honored 9/11 during the Subway Series. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• A really touching moment.

And tomorrow will be a better day than today, Buster. Make it so.

Tanner Houck’s last appearance for the Boston Red Sox was July 9, 2025.

That was more than 14 months ago. A month after that start, he underwent hybrid right-UCL reconstruction and flexor tendon repair—Tommy John surgery, with the flexor tendon thrown in on top. That’s the kind of procedure that doesn’t just end your season, it rewrites your timeline entirely. Pitchers come back from Tommy John. They come back from flexor tendon repairs. Coming back from both at once is its own thing, and doing it in a little over a year is fast.

The plan from here: two more rehab outings on Tuesday and Saturday, and a potential activation window around the Cubs series to close out the regular season. If that holds, Houck gets back on a big-league mound sometime in the last week of September—maybe two appearances before October.

So the question isn’t whether Houck is coming back. It’s what the Red Sox actually do with him when he gets here.

The case for being careful

This is a pen that has worked. Erik Miller, Garrett Whitlock, Justin Slaten when healthy, Greg Weissert (begrudgingly), and Aroldis Chapman give you everything you need at the back of a bullpen. Alec Gamboa and Jovani Moran soak up the slop innings, Wyatt Olds pops up when needed. The roles are defined, the trust chart makes sense, and hitters have no idea what’s coming next. You don’t throw a new arm into that mix without thinking about it, especially when he hasn’t thrown more than 50 pitches in a professional game since the All-Star Break of last season.

And Houck himself is a factor. He’s been through a brutal rehab to get back to this point. The last thing you do to a pitcher in that situation is drop him into a tie game in the seventh inning of a September game that actually matters, with no ramp-up, no rhythm, no feel for what he has right now. One bad outing at the wrong time can get in a pitcher’s head in ways that outlast the outing itself. The Sox don’t need that.

The case for using him

An extra arm is always better than not having an extra arm. That’s just true, especially this late. And Houck isn’t some random September call-up—he’s a legitimate starting-caliber pitcher coming back with something to prove and a reason to be sharp. Whatever version of him shows up, he’s still Tanner Houck.

The Cubs series also isn’t nothing. Chicago is 81-62 and fighting for NL Wild Card position. They’ll be playing real baseball in those three games. Getting Houck live innings against a good team in meaningful contexts—not a blowout, not a dead game—is exactly the kind of tuneup you want going into October.

The right way to use him

There are two spots where Houck fits, and neither of them require forcing it.

First: open for Brayan Bello. Two or three innings, hand it off. Reliever Bello is one of the best pitchers in baseball and having a competent opener for him is just as important. Houck gets his legs under him in a real game, and the workload splits naturally.

Second: long reliever when Patrick Sandoval starts. Sandoval has a habit of looking decent through four innings and then hitting a wall. When that happens, you’re burning three or four bullpen arms to get through the game. Plug Houck in for innings five through seven and suddenly those guys are available for something that actually matters. In September and October, that’s a big deal.

These aren’t mutually exclusive. Both roles make sense. And frankly, the question of whether Sandoval even makes the playoff roster is still open—which would solve some of this on its own, but also makes Houck’s value as a multi-inning arm even more obvious.

The other piece: Houck was a starter before the surgery, and he’ll go back to being a starter this offseason and into 2027. What he’s doing right now—coming out of the pen, staying in the 50-pitch range—is about getting back on a mound, not reinventing his role. Don’t mistake this for his ceiling or his future. He’s a starter who’s doing what makes sense for the moment.

Handle it the right way and the Red Sox enter October with one more quality arm than they had a week ago, Houck’s confidence intact, and a bullpen that just got deeper. Don’t overreach and blow it.

That’s the whole ask.

Six divisions, four runaways, one battle to see which club proves less feeble.

Thank goodness for the American League Central.

Never thought you’d be hearing that, eh? Yet, that’s where most of the tension will be focused over the final two weeks of this Major League Baseball season – beginning with a long-anticipated head-to-head battle.

The surprising Chicago White Sox are hanging by a thread, taking a half-game Central lead to Cleveland where the always-resilient Guardians aim to steal off with their third consecutive division title.

The clash on the Cuyahoga highlights four series with significant playoff ramifications this week:

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians

When: Monday-Wednesday, Progressive Field

Key matchup: Tuesday – White Sox RH Davis Martin vs. Guardians LH Foster Griffin

Outlook: A consequence of the more-balanced schedule that features beaucoup interleague play is that division rivals often do not play each other in September. Not this time, baby!

The White Sox have held at least a share of the AL Central lead since July 4, with the Guardians yapping at their heels the whole time. Now, the dog has caught up to the car: Chicago holds just a half-game lead entering this tussle. And on paper, all the pitching matchups favor Cleveland.

Lefty Sean Newcomb will try to battle Cleveland right-hander Gavin Williams, whose 228 strikeouts are tied for the major league lead, on Monday, Sept. 14. The Martin-Griffin matchup is also intriguing; they strike out 7.6 and 8.1 batters per nine, respectively, and require exquisite command to be effective. Not much margin for error.

Parker Messick, the Guardians left-hander who’s a worthy Rookie of the Year candidate, will face a TBD White Sox starter in the Wednesday afternoon finale (ESPN). The Guardians would need a sweep to win the season series, which of course may loom large.

If the season ended now – and it does not – both teams would make the playoffs; Cleveland has a one-game lead over the Toronto Blue Jays for the final wild card spot. The Guardians also lost the season series to the Blue Jays. Speaking of which…

Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers

When: Friday-Sunday, Globe Life Field

Key matchup: Friday – Blue Jays RH Dylan Cease vs. Rangers RH Kumar Rocker

Outlook: Ah, isn’t this the life: A 75-75 team just a game out of a wild card spot, and a 74-76 squad just a game out of the division lead. Welcome to Blue Jays-Rangers, where a winning record may not be a prerequisite to make the playoffs.

The Blue Jays, at least, are trending positively, not only winning a de facto elimination series against Baltimore but also learning that 2025 playoff hero Trey Yesavage will likely return to the rotation this week – probably Tuesday – after August arthroscopic knee surgery. That will be a big boost to their rotation as they can likely skip Spencer Arrighetti’s turn.

Either way, the Rangers will get both Cease and trade deadline prize José Soriano, giving Toronto a significant edge in this series. The Blue Jays haven’t been two games over .500 since April 1, the Rangers since July 28. The odds are stacked against Texas this week, with the Red Sox preceding the Blue Jays into Arlington.

MLB POWER RANKINGS: Can Vlad Jr., Blue Jays wake up in time for playoffs?

Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros

When: Friday-Sunday, Daikin Park

Key matchup: Friday – Braves LH Chris Sale vs. Astros RH Hayden Wesneski

Outlook: There’s a chance the Braves may soil the carpet in the visiting clubhouse with champagne this weekend, as they take a magic number of four to clinch a playoff berth and seven to clinch the NL East into this week. It’s more likely they’ll wrap up the playoff spot at Wrigley Field, while the division may have to wait until early next week. That said, the Braves could be closing in on a marginally competitive situation: The division salted away and a first-round bye too far out of reach.