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Late Friday, MLB Trade Rumors posted their annual salary projections for arbitration-eligible players for next year.

It will be interesting to see how many of these players wind up being signed before the owners’ lockout, which will almost certainly happen after the Dec. 1 expiration of the MLB/MLBPA collective bargaining agreement. It seems likely that teams will want some cost certainty with arb-eligible players before the lockout. For example, we don’t know what the MLB minimum salary will be under any new CBA, as well as uncertainty about salaries in general.

As always, we await developments. In the meantime, here are the MLBTR projections for the 12 Cubs players who are arb-eligible for 2027, listed in the order they are posted in the MLBTR article.

Justin Steele: $6.8 million

Steele made $6.55 million for four starts in 2025 before his Tommy John surgery ended that season. Then he was paid $6.775 million this year and didn’t throw a single MLB pitch.

2027 will be Steele’s final arb-eligible season, but I don’t see the Cubs paying him even that relatively small sum, not after missing nearly two full seasons. Instead, I would guess they will non-tender him and come to some sort of agreement on a two-year deal that would have incentives in the first year and a vesting option for the second year.

Edward Cabrera: $4.8 million

Cabrera made $4.45 million in 2026 and had a really bad year. Nevertheless, he has talent and two years of team control remaining. This doesn’t seem an unreasonable number.

Braxton Garrett: $1.6 million

Garrett was paid $1.53 million in 2026 as he returned from TJS. He could be a really good under-the-radar rotation guy next year. This seems a very reasonable figure.

Javier Assad: $2.3 million

Assad was paid $1.8 million and the team has a $3.3 million option on him for 2027. He’s under team control through 2028. I would guess the Cubs would rather pay him the $2.3 million figure.

Tyler Austin: $1.3 million

Austin did not play a single game anywhere in 2026. He was expected to back up Michael Busch at first base after hitting well (.293/.377/.568) in six years in NPB.

The Cubs can do better, I think. He’ll likely be non-tendered.

Miguel Amaya: $1.7 million

2027 is Amaya’s first arb-eligible season. Pay the man.

Gabriel Arias: $1.3 million

2027 is Arias’ first arb-eligible season, but this is a tough one. He barely played for the Cubs (seven games, all but one as a pinch-runner/defensive replacement. He’s useful in that role, but perhaps the Cubs can find a minimum-salary guy who can do the same.

Ryan Rolison: $1.1 million

Again, here’s a first-time arb-eligible guy. He had a good season and could be a useful lefty out of the pen for another few years. Pay the man.

Ethan Roberts: $800,000

Roberts finished the year at Triple-A Iowa, where he was optioned after his rehab assignment ended. $800,000 is on the very low end of arb salaries, but Roberts is 29 and hasn’t really shown much at the MLB level. I could go either way on this — pay him, or non-tender him.

Michael Busch: $5.4 million

Here’s another Cub who is first-time arbitration eligible. While his performance declined somewhat from his very good 2025 season, he plays a solid first base and has power. This amount doesn’t seem unreasonable. Busch has three years of team control remaining.

Ben Brown: $1.3 million

There is some uncertainty about Brown’s recovery from his neck injury, but this amount doesn’t seem too much to keep him.

Daniel Palencia: $1.2 million

Pay the man.

For the second time in the National League Division Series the San Diego Padres have seen one of their top relievers surrender the lead and the game which has them on the brink of elimination.

Mason Miller was called on for a six-out save and he was one out away from securing a 3-2 win in the second game of the series, but the San Diego closer walked the bases loaded and then allowed a game-winning single to Jackson Chourio, which gave Milwaukee a 4-3 win and a 2-0 lead in the five-game series. Miller was not sharp in his outing but he had done enough to get through the bottom of the eighth and into the bottom of the ninth. The right-hander got a groundout to open the final frame, but then allowed back-to-back walks to Christian Yelich and Sal Frelick. Miller got Andrew Vaughn to fly out and the Padres were one out away from heading home with the series tied, 1-1. Gary Sanchez was called on to pinch hit and he too drew a walk off Miller to load the bases.

Chourio got an opportunity to win the game with a hit and on the sixth pitch of the at-bat, a 101 mph four-seam fastball, he hit a single just beyond the dive of second baseman Jake Cronenworth, which rolled to Jackson Merrill in center field. Yelich scored easily from third and Merrill threw home, but Frelick was able to slide in ahead of the throw and tag to give Milwaukee a come-from-behind walk-off win.

It was a crushing defeat for San Diego who saw Adrian Morejon surrender what proved to be a game-winning solo home run to William Contreras in the seventh inning of Game 1. Ty France had what looked like a go-ahead home run clang off a stadium truss which resulted in the ball being caught by Chourio and the Padres suffered a one-run loss.

After the result on Friday night, it was imperative that San Diego got a win and split the two games in Milwaukee. In an effort to to do so, Michael King started on the mound for the Padres and he delivered a solid performance that saw him go five-plus innings, where he allowed a run on three hits with no walks and six strikeouts. Yuki Matsui pitched 1.1 innings and allowed a run and was followed by Bradgley Rodriguez who pitch 0.2 innings without allowing a run.

The San Diego offense was held to just five hits with France accounting for two of those. Merrill, Luis Campusano and Samad Taylor accounted for the other three. The Padres left eight runners on base and were 2-for-9 with runners in scoring position. Two of the three runs scored by San Diego were unearned thanks to three Milwaukee fielding errors.

The Padres have an off day today before returning to Petco Park for what is now an elimination game on Tuesday. San Diego will try to keep its season alive with the help of the Friar Faithful on Tuesday at 6:30 p.m.

Padres News:

• Nick Pivetta will take the ball for the Padres in must-win Game 3.

• Ty France was just what the Padres needed right when they needed it to save their 2026 season.

Baseball News:

• The Atlanta Braves topped the Los Angeles Dodgers to pull even in their series.

• The Chicago White Sox and the Cleveland Guardians will meet today in Game 2 of their series.

• The New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays will meet today in Game 2 of their series.

Because the Mets traded or waived nearly all of their pending free agents (Brooks Raley, David Peterson, A.J. Minter, Freddy Peralta, Clay Holmes, and Luis Robert Jr.), the only notable pending free agent is Frankie Montas, whose two-year deal blew up due to a mix of injury and ineffectiveness.

Beyond that, it's possible Bo Bichette will opt out of his contract. But it would be an upset, considering that Bichette would be leaving $84 million on the table ($42 million each of the next two seasons) after posting a 97 OPS+ in order to join a free agent market that could be impacted by an expected lockout.

That means if the Mets are going to move on from any key pieces of their offense this offseason, it will almost certainly mean doing so via trade.

With that as a backdrop, a possibility exists where New York could consider dealing one of its catchers -- something there were rumblings about ahead of the trade deadline.

Francisco Alvarez is still very young (set to enter his age-25 season in 2027) and is under team control via arbitration for three more years.

Luis Torrens signed a two-year, $11.5 million extension during the 2026 season and is under contract through 2028.

With Torrens in tow, could Alvarez be dangled this winter? Should he be?

WHY IT COULD MAKE SENSE TO TRADE ALVAREZ

Alvarez remains wildly inconsistent both at and behind the plate.

After posting a career-best .787 OPS over 76 games in 2025, Alvarez appeared to be reaching a new level this past season. But then things took a turn for the worse.

The backstop entered play on Aug. 11 with a .786 OPS, but faltered badly for the remainder of the season. Over his last 31 games, Alvarez slashed .176/.224/.296 (.520 OPS) and struck out 48 times as he had serious issues laying off pitches out of the strike zone. 

Overall, Alvarez fanned 129 times in 113 games in 2026. That isn't an outrageously high number for someone who often sells out for power, but it was the worst strikeout rate (30.7 percent) of his career.

Alvarez's chase rate was in the 35th percentile (via Baseball Savant), while he was near the bottom of the league in both whiff percentage and strikeout percentage.

His ability to block balls in the dirt was also near the very bottom of the sport, with Alvarez in the first percentile. 

Meanwhile, Alvarez was limited to 113 games due to a meniscus tear in his right knee. But he also returned from that injury well ahead of his estimated timeline -- something that has been a trademark of sorts for him since reaching the majors. 

WHY IT COULD MAKE SENSE TO KEEP ALVAREZ

While Alvarez can be a frustrating player at times, his potential remains tantalizing.

He is a player in his mid-20s with light-tower power, an incredibly strong work ethic, and a relaxed, effervescent personality.

And even though he has a tendency to swing and miss (and his strikeout rate bears watching) Alvarez seriously impacts the baseball. This past season, his barrel percentage (96th percentile), hard hit percentage (86th percentile), and average exit velocity (80th percentile) were all elite, with his bat speed (74th percentile) well above average.

Following the season, Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns referred to Alvarez's season as "probably up an down," but he praised the improvements he made defensively.

"The second half, Francisco behind the plate was really encouraging," Stearns explained. "I think his defense took a step forward behind the plate. His command of the pitching staff and game-calling took a step forward in the second half. Really a credit to him for not getting down and frustrated, and a credit to our coaching staff for getting him there."

The numbers bear out what Stearns noted, with Alvarez solidly above average in 2026 when it came to pitch-framing, pop time, and caught stealing above average. 

There's also the contract status factor, with Alvarez under team control through 2029.

Entering his second year of arbitration, Alvarez will get a solid raise from the $2.4 million he made in 2026. But he will still be an absolute bargain. 

VERDICT

Giving up on a player like Alvarez at this point would seem like a knee-jerk reaction to his end-of-season swoon.

Sure, the Mets have a very capable backup in Torrens, who is a terrific defensive catcher and would profile as a starter for a handful of other teams. But there's just no reason to shake things up. 

But with the Mets having a long list of needs to address this offseason, it would seem counterintuitive to open up a hole behind the plate.

It also needs to be noted how difficult it is to find catchers who produce like Alvarez has.

Despite his inconsistencies, Alvarez is an above average hitting catcher with the upside to develop into much more.

In a world where the Mets traded Alvarez, the backup to Torrens would likely be Hayden Senger -- meaning New York could roll with Senger (career 21 OPS+ in limited big league action) or find an Alvarez replacement in free agency or via trade.

Or they could just keep Alvarez, which should be a relatively easy call. 

The Dodgers and Braves shift their National League Division Series to Atlanta, tied at one game apiece. On the off day Monday, let’s look back a little more at the disappointing Game 2 loss by Los Angeles.

Blake Snell got only 11 outs on 90 pitches, and though he only allowed one run, the Dodgers used six relievers to cover the final 5 1/3 innings on Sunday. The Dodgers felt it was more rust than any lingering effects from the left groin discomfort that caused Snell to leave his start early on September 16 in Cincinnati.

From Sonja Chen at MLB.com:

“He just was fighting himself with his delivery all game,” Roberts said. “I think, in total, didn’t have fastball command, didn’t have slider command and the changeup wasn’t there. … It wasn’t the groin. He just wasn’t sharp tonight.”

All five runs the Dodgers scored in Game 1 came on home runs — two-run shots by Teoscar Hernández and Kyle Tucker, plus a solo shot by Mac Muncy. Then in Game 2 the Dodgers’ only two runs were on solo home runs from Freddie Freeman and Muncy. From Kevin Baxter of the Los Angeles Times:

“We’ve to find a way to score some runs without hitting a home run,” added Freddie Freeman, who homered Sunday and has three hits in the series. “That’s our biggest thing right now. So keep getting guys on base and get that big hit.”

Freeman said the Braves have done a good job keeping the Dodger hitters off-balance by emptying their bullpen, sending in a fresh pitcher every couple of innings.

“It’s tough because you’re facing a different arm every single time you’re going up there,” Freeman said. “It’s different angles, different velocities, different things. So stringing hits together is very hard.

More from Roberts on Braves reliever Didier Fuentes, who retired 11 straight batters before Muncy homered in the ninth to pull the Dodgers within a run , from Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register:

“I think it was just the fastball,” Roberts said of Fuentes, who threw two scoreless innings against the Dodgers during the Braves’ three-game sweep in Atlanta in August. “Tonight you could see the fastball, it was 99, 100. There was a lot of balls we were just missing as far as lazy fly balls, and we just couldn’t hit the ball flat against him. Then he was mixing in his split once in a while.

“Tip my hat to him, two days off (since pitching in the Wild Card Series) and doing what he did was pretty impressive.”

In some ways, it feels weird to re-litigate this after the Braves won in Game 2 without Chris Sale starting, but what happened feels so weird that I still can’t wrap my head around it.

We basically have two things in play:

First, Chris Sale has gotten extra rest ahead of many of his starts this season. He hasn’t started on the standard four days’ rest very much.

Second, Chris Sale appeared out of the bullpen to finish off the NL Wild Card Series win over the Phillies.

There was a logical world where that appearance functioned as a normal bullpen session, and Sale would’ve started on regular rest twice, once in NLDS Game 2, and once in NLDS Game 5, if needed. That seems like kind of a big deal, given that A) Sale is really good, B) Tyler Mahle would only appear once in the NLDS given the schedule, and C) the Braves don’t have any other starters.

But then, Sale didn’t start Game 2. A lot of discussion was focused on his bullpen appearance, and whether that was the culprit for knocking him back a game. Is that what happened? I have no idea. Or, would the Braves have knocked him back a game anyway for reasons that we aren’t privy to?

From reporting, it seems like it was a Braves decision and not a Chris Sale decision, which is not at all a surprise to me. There’s also some reporting that Sale wasn’t 100 percent heading into Sunday’s Game 2, but… it’s also unclear to me whether that would’ve been the case for him facing normal rest irrespective of the relief appearance.

Basically, I don’t expect anyone or anything to resolve this, but there seems to be this lack of a throughline between “Sale appeared out of the bullpen” and “Sale isn’t starting Game 2.” Maybe that throughline exists, or maybe Sale was going to get extra rest anyway.

The whole situation is just weird. In theory, the Braves’ odds of advancing are pretty dependent on how many Sale appearances they can cram into their remaining games. But, in practice, they could just out-slug the opposition, or even pull an NLDS Game 2, where they probably shouldn’t have won but did anyway.

(Game 2, Dodgers: .281 wOBA, .286 xwOBA | Game 2, Braves: .309 wOBA, .276 xwOBA)

The 2026 version of Yennier Cano was one we thought we might not see again. After a brutal 2025 season in which Cano was optioned to Triple-A Norfolk in late June and ultimately had a 5.12 ERA in 65 games, it looked like Cano’s run as an effective reliever might be over. But a resurgent 2026 put him back on track and even earned him a contract extension.

When Cano allowed the losing run in relief to the Texas Rangers in the second series of the season, it felt like an omen that Cano would suffer a similar fate in 2026 as he did in 25. But the omen wasn’t reliable, as he went on to allow just one run on four hits over his next 18 games. In fact, over his first 21 games, Cano pitched to a 1.06 ERA and allowed just seven hits and three walks in 17 innings. In a bullpen that suffered from injuries and ineffectiveness, a resurgent Cano was a welcome sight.

At the end of May, Cano had two consecutive rough games, including on May 29th when he coughed up two runs to blow a game that the Orioles had once led 5-0. But after that blip, he went right back to what he’d been doing so far in the season. He was aided by a ground ball rate of 62%, back up where it was before his unfortunate 2025 (and among the best in baseball). He also allowed just two home runs, which allowed him to get out of many jams. He cut his walk rate by over 3%; at 6.4%, it was the lowest since his outstanding 2023 season.

Just ahead of the trade deadline, Cano was rocking a 2.15 ERA and had re-established himself as one of the core members of the bullpen. Just days before the Orioles traded his bullpen mate Tyler Wells, they went a different direction with Cano. On July 31st, the Orioles signed Cano to an extension that covered his final two years of arbitration and gave the Orioles a club option for the 2029 season. The move gave Cano stability while giving the Orioles the ability to keep him longer if they desired.

Cano’s numbers after the trade deadline look pretty bad, but that all came down to back-to-back appearances against the Rays in which he allowed three runs in each. In one, the three runs he allowed were the difference in a loss. In the other, the team held on to win despite his three runs allowed. Cam Sanders had to relieve him to get the final out.

Over the years, the Orioles have tried Cano in the ninth inning and it has never worked out. In his career, Cano has a 5.27 ERA in 54.2 innings pitched. He’s been much more effective in the seventh or eighth innings, where he’s logged the most innings. In 2026, Cano allowed seven runs in 13 games in the ninth inning. Which is a lot! But all seven scored in three games.

Bottom line, it’s worth keeping Cano out of the ninth inning if possible. That is fine, because he thrives as a setup man. He held opponents to a sub-.550 OPS in those innings this year. What would be best for the Orioles is to build the 2027 bullpen around the idea that Cano can be a late-inning guy. I expect that Ryan Helsley will exercise his player option for next year. His presence (and hopefully that of Félix Bautista) will keep Cano where he has thrived.

Relief pitchers are volatile, and it’s hard to know what to expect from Cano going forward. But this season was a reassuring step in the right direction after a tough 2025. The Orioles showed faith in him with the extension with a 2.90 ERA in 68 games. A repeat performance in 2027 would be a welcome sight as the Orioles try to get back into contention.

Baseball brings both horror and odd silver linings from unexpected places. In just the last handful of days, Roman Anthony’s been handed both.

The first is the most obvious as the hand injury Anthony battled all year resurfaced and wrecked his first playoff appearance in merciless fashion. He now faces a long offseason of rehab and questions he won’t be able to answer for multiple months. In almost every way, the ending to his 2026 is cruel, harsh and final.

But leave it to the baseball gods to follow up that nastiness with an odd, but also rather ideal ray of hope. Enter Jackson Chourio, who yesterday came up in the bottom of the ninth inning of Game 2 of the NLDS with the bases juiced and Mason Miller on the mound. After a highly entertaining battle, Chourio came through on a 2-2 pitch with this game-winner that sent the Brewer crowd into bedlam:

So what does that have to do with Roman Anthony? Well, just one year ago, Chourio faced a very similar set of frustrating circumstances that largely mirror what Anthony is dealing with today.

The curious correlations started back in July of 2025, when Chourio suffered a right hamstring injury on this triple against the Cubs:

Chourio was initially listed as day-to-day (that should sound familiar), but ended up missing several weeks (that should also sound familiar).

Now so far, the similarities are very rudimentary. Anthony, like Chourio, is a 22-year-old hitting stud born in 2004. Anthony, like Chourio, is an outfielder who plays predominantly in left but can move to other slots when the team needs it. Anthony, like Chourio, signed an 8-year contract extension. And Anthony, like Chourio, suffered a frustrating injury that started as day-to-day and then became something much, much more.

But here’s where the similarities get crazy. Do you know what happened shortly after Chourio went on the IL last year? His team went on a 14-game winning streak, which is wildly similar to the 15-game winning streak the Red Sox went on this summer.

Do you know the date Chourio came back from his injury last year? August 30th. Do you know the date Anthony came back from his injury this year? August 30th. Both Anthony and Chourio then proceeded to play in exactly 25 regular season games upon returning, and then had their old injury resurface in Game 1 of the postseason, where they each had to leave early. Here’s the Brewers announcing Chourio’s departure 12 months ago.

Now the difference is the 2025 Brewers went much deeper into the postseason than the 2026 Red Sox. So Chourio was actually in the lineup again in the NLCS, where he unfortunately had to leave another game with that reoccurring hamstring injury.

Either way, if you check the social media archives, you’ll find hundreds of comments from dimwitted imbeciles calling Chourio soft, made of glass, uncompetitive, and questioning if he had anything to play for after the Brewers gave him an an 8-year, $82 million contract extension. Basically, you’d be reading the same trash many people are saying about Roman Anthony right now, which is suddenly oddly comforting in an extremely bizarre way after what Chourio did on Sunday.

Now unfortunately, there’s no guarantee the story keeps following the same set of parallel tracks, and even if it does, we have to wait a year to get the payoff. For now, Roman Anthony, Red Sox fans, and potentially the entire sport face a long, grueling winter ahead, and maybe even a delayed start to next season. (Chourio by the way also had a delayed start to his next season, but that was for a fractured hand, which given everything else here is kind of nuts.)

But at the very least, it’s nice to know the pot of gold is sitting out there somewhere. Chourio’s heroics provide a beacon of light in a moment filled with uncertainty and darkness. So even though it’s a million miles away and there’s no guarantee we ever get there, it can serve as our north star for the time being. Who knows? Maybe a year from now we can circle back and note one more satisfying similarity in this silly string of surrealness.