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The Boston Red Sox visit the Baltimore Orioles for a key four-game series in the American League Wild Card race beginning Thursday, Sept. 3.

Boston is a 54% favorite ahead of the opening pitch at 7:15 p.m. ET, and my top Red Sox vs. Orioles predictions and MLB picks call for the BoSox to come through with the win at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland.

Who will win Red Sox vs Orioles today: Red Sox moneyline (54.3%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Baltimore Orioles righty Brandon Young has outpitched his underlying numbers this season with his 4.36 xERA and 4.47 xFIP well above his 3.38 ERA, and he’s thrown a career-high 147 innings including his 16 2/3 frames with Triple-A Norfolk.

The workload is catching up, too, with Young’s numbers skyrocketing to a 5.15 xERA and 4.77 xFIP while allowing a healthy .366 wOBA and .205 ISO across his past six starts.

As a result, I like the Boston Red Sox to succeed at the dish, given they’ve averaged 5.3 runs per game while ranking fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, and I'd back them to 56%.

COVERS INTEL: The Baltimore Orioles rank 29th in on-base percentage with the seventh-highest strikeout percentage across the past two weeks.

Red Sox vs Orioles Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (51%)

The Orioles are also running hot at the plate with a fifth-ranked xwOBA and an average of 4.6 runs per game over the past 30 days, and their lineup features a number of impact right-handed hitters to counter Boston lefty Jake Bennett. 

There are also ideal hitting conditions forecast at Camden Yards tonight, and in addition to the highlighted favorable matchup for the Boston lineup, the Red Sox have hit the Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.90 Units / 27% ROI).

This Over 8.5 is in play to 53.5%.

Red Sox vs Orioles home run prediction: Wilyer Abreu (22.2%)

Red Sox outfielder Wilyer Abreu has six extra-base hits across his past seven games for a .321 ISO, and he also sports a .214 mark against righties for the season.

With Abreu already taking Young deep once this season, and with the righties struggling, the Boston star has my attention tonight.

Red Sox vs Orioles weather

The forecast calls for a hot and humid evening (89 F at first pitch) with a mild 5 to 6 mph wind blowing out to right field for favorable hitting conditions.

Red Sox vs Orioles odds

• Moneyline: Red Sox 55.6% | Orioles 51.2%
• Run line: Red Sox -1.5 (%43.5) | Orioles +1.5 (60%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (52.4%) | Under 8.5 (52.4%)

Red Sox vs Orioles trend

The Boston Red Sox have won 27 of their last 45 away games (+7.10 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Orioles.

How to watch Red Sox vs Orioles and game info

Red Sox vs Orioles latest injuries

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You don’t need me to tell you how good Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong has been all year, but he really turned things on in August.

Even after going just 1-for-5 during the Cubs’ home run onslaught on the last day of the month without adding to that home run total, PCA batted .280/.366/.703 (33-for-118) during August with six doubles, a triple, 14 home runs, 28 RBI and 29 runs scored.

For that great performance, PCA was today named National League Player of the Month for August. It’s the second time this year he’s been given this honor, as he also won it for the month of June. The Player of the Month award has been given out for almost 70 years, since 1958. PCA is the first Cub ever to win this honor twice in one season. The last Cub to win more than one, period, was Derrek Lee, for April 2005 and September 2009. (Cody Bellinger won twice, once as a Cub in 2023 and once as a Dodger in 2018.)

Since PCA began his hot streak May 26, he is batting .316/.412/.693 (107-for-339) with 22 doubles, five triples, 32 home runs, 68 RBI, 72 runs scored, 20 stolen bases and 51 walks — in 84 games, just a bit more than half a season.

Congratulations to PCA on this award. This season has been absolutely amazing for him — remember watching all this, because it’s one of the greatest years in Cubs franchise history. Hopefully, it will wind up in PCA crushing it during the postseason, and then following it up with the NL MVP award.

Major League Baseball announced today that Astros LHP Josh Hader has been named the American League Reliever of the Month for August. It is Hader’s ninth career Reliever of the Month Award and his third with the Astros, also winning in August 2024 and June 2025. His nine career Reliever of the Month honors are the second-most since 2005 when the award was established, trailing only RHP Edwin Díaz (10).

Hader was scoreless through his 13 appearances and 14.1 innings pitched in August, recording a .085 opponent batting average (4×47), a 0.35 WHIP and 15 strikeouts to just one walk. He also converted all seven of his save opportunities and picked up one win. Among AL pitchers with at least 14 innings pitched last month, he ranked first in ERA, opponent batting average and WHIP, and ranked tied for fifth in strikeouts. Hader also ranked tied for third among AL relievers in saves.  

Hader carries an active scoreless streak of 19 appearances and 20.0 innings, which began on July 21 vs. MIA and is the second-longest active scoreless streak in the Major Leagues (by innings and appearances). In August, Hader also finished out a streak of 35 consecutive batters retired from July 21-Aug. 14, which was the longest hitless streak by an Astro since LHP Framber Valdez went 39 consecutive batters without allowing a hit from July 31-Aug. 6, 2024. Additionally, Hader made his 500th career appearance on Aug. 19 vs. LAA. 

The 32-year-old, six-time All-Star has been spectacular since making his season debut on June 3 following a stint on the Injured List. In 38 appearances this year, Hader owns a 0.72 ERA (3ER/37.1IP) with 49 strikeouts, a 0.67 WHIP and a .111 (14×126) opponent average. He has also converted all 22 of his save opportunities and has recorded four winning decisions. Among AL relievers since June 2, he ranks first in opponent batting average (.111), second in ERA and third in SO/9 (11.81) (min. 35 IP).

Hader becomes the third Astros player to win a monthly award this season, with OF Yordan Alvarez winning AL Player of the Month in March/April and July and RHP Spencer Arrighetti winning AL Pitcher of the Month in May.

Today marks the one-month mark since the 2026 MLB trade deadline. The Phillies were very active at the deadline, as they acquired Luis Arraez, Caleb Kilian, and Brooks Raley. So far, the results have been a mixed bag. Arraez is obviously the biggest name, and although he’s been rather pedestrian, hitting .280 with a .678 OPS through his first month in a Phillies uniform, the lineup itself has excelled since his arrival. The Phillies offense ranked first in on-base percentage for the month of August, a dramatic difference from their dead last ranking from April through the end of July. How much of that which can be directly or indirectly attributed to Arraez is up for interpretation, but the numbers show the team has improved since he was inserted into the lineup.

The two new pitchers the Phillies acquired are a different story. Raley has been fine, but he’s regressed heavily from his previous numbers with the Mets this season. Kilian appeared in just four games before suffering an oblique strain and being placed on the injured list on August 10th. It’s quite possible he does not pitch again this season. For the rotation, the Phillies opted not to acquire another starter, choosing to give Andrew Painter another run at the fifth spot. That decision was maligned at the time, but it looks to have been a shrewd one, as Painter looks like a completely different pitcher since returning from his mid-season demotion to Triple-A.

But we’re not here to talk about who the Phillies DID trade for. So, let’s look at how some of the names connected to the Phillies whether by insider rumor or fan speculation have fared over the last month.

Taylor Ward

Ward has been a constant in the rumor mill surrounding the Phillies for the last few seasons. He was finally moved from the Angels in the offseason, heading to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for Grayson Rodriguez. While with the Orioles, Ward’s previous power numbers from his past two years cratered, but his OBP jumped to what would have been a career-best .383. The 32-year-old found himself on the move again at this past deadline, this time heading to the Mariners in exchange for reliever Alex Hoppe and minor leaguers Brock Moore and Harrison Kreiling. The package Baltimore netted for Ward appeared very light on the surface, leading to much consternation among the Phillies fanbase and others over why he went for so little.

Well, it looks as though the Orioles are actually the favorites to come out ahead of that deal, as Ward has been abysmal for Seattle. He’s hitting just .121 through 19 games with 21 strikeouts. Ironically, the Mariners have trended downward since the deal and are fading from the AL postseason picture while the Orioles are trending up and remain firmly in the mix for the third Wild Card in the mediocre AL.

Luis Robert Jr.

Robert is yet another name that has been oft linked to the Phillies over the past few seasons. The White Sox finally moved on from their former center fielder over the winter when they sent Robert to New York as part of Daniel Stearns’ offseason makeover of the Mets. But Robert was a total bust for the Mets, as he appeared in 27 games before suffering a lumbar disc injury on April 30th that kept him out of action until July 20th. His name floated around rumors at the deadline as part of the Mets’ sell-off, but New York did not or could not move him before the deadline passed.

Flash forward to August 29th, and Robert was waived by the Mets in an attempt to move off of the remaining $5M of his deal, assuming he would require the $3M buyout and his $10M option would be declined. The Orioles claimed Robert on August 31st, officially ending his tenure with the Mets after 58 games with a .223/.303/.399 batting line and 0.8 WAR.

Jo Adell

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Adell is another right-handed hitting outfielder that has seen his name connected with the Phillies at the last two trade deadlines. The 27-year-old saw a drastic drop in production from his career year in 2025, as he had a .682 OPS with Anaheim this year after posting a career-best .778 last season. Like his former teammate Ward, the Angels finally found a deal they liked for Adell, sending him to the Guardians at the deadline in exchange for catching prospect Jacob Cozart.

Unlike the previous two names so far on this list, Adell has been a boon for his team post-deadline. He’s hit .258 with an .815 OPS in 24 games with Cleveland and has seen his walk rate jump from a miniscule 3.5% to a more respectable 9.8%. Adell has been a huge addition for the Guardians as they try to chase down the White Sox in the AL Central.

Kevin Gausman

Gausman was a somewhat surprising addition to the deadline trade market, as the Blue Jays were coming off of a shocking World Series run that saw them come within literal inches of winning a championship in Game 7. But the magic quickly wore off in 2026, as Toronto found themselves 53-60 on August 3rd and 4.5 games out of a postseason spot. So, the Blue Jays opted to dismantle some of that AL pennant winning club, with Gausman’s name emerging as a possible option for clubs seeking rotation help, such as the Phillies.

The 35-year-old Gausman was in the midst of a down year himself when he was sent to the Cubs in exchange for outfielder Brett Bateman and infielder Ty Southisene. Gausman is in the final year of a five year, $110M deal and had a no trade clause that blocked a move to all but eight teams. One of those teams where he could have been traded without his consent was the Phillies, but they opted to let him go to Chicago. The Cubs were hoping that Gausman could shake off the 4.38 ERA he had in 23 starts with the Blue Jays and recapture his form as a front of the rotation playoff caliber starter. That has yet to happen so far, as Gausman has a 5.14 ERA in five starts since the trade and has already allowed five home runs.

Clay Holmes

Holmes matches two ongoing themes of the trade deadline in that he was a starting pitcher that went to the Cubs as well as being a part of the Mets’ selloff. The converted reliever excelled in his first season as a full-time starter with the Mets in 2025, finishing with a 3.53 ERA across 165.2 IP in 33 games (31 starts). Holmes looked to have been off to an even better start to 2026, posting a 2.39 ERA across his first nine starts, but a tibia fracture suffered on May 15th shut him down until the middle of July when he began rehabbing in the minor leagues.

At the time of the deadline, Holmes was one of the more intriguing non-Tarik Skubal options on the market. His three year, $38M signed prior to last season includes a player option after this season, meaning that Holmes can once again test free agency following 2026. Considering his performance over the last year plus when healthy, Holmes is likely to exercise that option. That along with the uncertainty of his injury status at the time of the deadline (he had only appeared in rehab games to that point) made sure there was non-insignificant risk in acquiring him. The Phillies clearly chose not to take that risk while the Cubs did, and Chicago has reaped the benefits of it. Holmes has picked up right where he left off prior to injury, as he has a 1.55 ERA in five starts since the trade. His chances of opting out have likely increased even more, but the Cubs will be happy to employ him in the meantime.

Robbie Ray

Ray was yet another solid rotation option available in a trade at a time when the Phillies rotation was very much in flux. The 34-year-old was in the midst of a second straight renaissance season pitching in pitcher friendly Oracle Park in San Francisco, as he was pitching to a 3.08 in 22 games (21 starts) with the moribund Giants. The trifecta of Ray pitching well, his status as a rental still being owed a little more than $4M, and the Giants being long out of the race, made him ripe for a change of address at the deadline.

The Padres ended up being the ones to acquire Ray’s services, sending two prospects in Miguel Mendez and Joniel Hernandez to San Francisco with the Giants also agreeing to pay part of Ray’s salary. The lefty has been a good pickup for San Diego, as he’s made five starts and sports a 3.42 ERA as the Padres look to chase down the Phillies and others for an NL Wild Card spot.

That was one of the more frustrating games of the year. That’s a reasonably high bar too as there have been a lot of lousy, frustrating games. Watching the Cubs rally on two different occasions after Jacob Misiorowski was given the lead by the Brewers offense only to eventually come up (well) short. Just another frustrating day at the ballpark. The Cubs were 74-53 after taking the first two games of the series versus the White Sox on August 18. They are 4-9 since. Not the worst stretch of the season for the Cubs, but definitely one of them.

This one was frustrating on multiple levels. I made a reference to a game feeling like a rerun the other day. This is one of those games that happens a handful of times every year. The Cubs hit the ball hard it finds a glove. The Brewers hit the ball soft, it finds grass. It was pretty clearly a difficult night to pitch at Wrigley Field, particularly early in the game. The Brewers relievers were more less able to figure it out, the Cubs relievers were more or less not. Though in fairness, all of the runs that lost the game were charged to starter David Peterson.

I always know that I’ve just about hit peak frustration with this team when I get to the point where they lose a game and my brain has a sour grapes response. As in, maybe this team shouldn’t make the playoffs, I wouldn’t enjoy it anyway. Yeah, that’s where I’m at right now. It all feels fatalistic.

I think it was right about that 13 games ago that I got comfortable with this team. I felt like they’d reached the point where they were kind of high functioning with all of their limitations. Like no lead was ever going to really be safe with the pitching staff. But also, they score a ton of runs so often that it’s just kind of okay.

I like to think of baseball sometimes as an X/Y axis with one axis being offense is bad/offense is good and the other axis is pitching is bad/pitching is good. Every team is dominant when you get good/good performance. Every team is putrid when you get bad/bad performance. So the first measure of how good your season is comes from having more games in the good/good section than in the bad/bad section. The Cubs have been very good at that.

The second measure of how good your season is comes from how well you do in the good/bad section and bad/good section. The Cubs do reasonably well when the offense is good but the pitching is rough. There aren’t a lot of pitching was good, offense was bad wins for this team. The whole saving grace for the team has been that the offense has been so good that the team is on the right side of the offense axis so consistently.

This funk right now arises from too many games when the pitching is rough. That contrasts earlier in the year when the team had that 10-game losing streak. The pitching didn’t do a ton of favors, but that streak largely saw the offense sputtering. They scored just 25 runs during that 10-game skid and eight of those were in one game (and five in another). They have 91 runs in this 13-game stretch. The problem is that it is massively stratified. 60 runs in the four wins in that stretch and 31 runs in the nine losses.

Long story short, not good enough.

Three Positives:

• Alex Bregman had two hits, one a homer, and drove in four runs.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong had a single and drew two walks. He scored twice.
• Ryan Rolison faced five batters and got five outs. He and Caleb Thielbar were the only two effective Cub pitchers on the night.

Game 140, September 2: Brewers 9, Cubs 5 (78-62)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Alex Bregman (.290). 2-4, HR, 4 RBI, R
• Hero: Ryan Rolison (.209). 1.2 IP, 5 BF, K
• Sidekick: Caleb Thielbar (.030). IP, 3 BF, 2 K

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: David Peterson (-.501). 3.2 IP, 23 BF, 7 H, 4 BB, 6 R, 4 K (L 4-2)
• Goat: Michael Busch (-.109). 0-4
• Kid: Nico Hoerner (-.096). 0-4

Note: Peterson’s WPA is 10th worst WPA game score of the season by a Cub. Year over year, those are mostly relievers, but occasionally a position player or starter will get in there. But this year all 10 of these are relievers. Recent reference, it was eight relievers and two starters in 2025. In 2024 it was three starters and seven relievers.

WPA Play of the Game: Alex Bregman’s two-run single in the second gave the Cubs a two run lead with two outs. (.185)

Cubs Play of the Game: William Contreras had an RBI-single with one out in the fourth, giving the Brewers a 6-5 lead. (.120)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 139 Winner: Tyrone Taylor received 43 of 65 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Alex Bregman +27
• Pete Crow-Armstrong +25
• Ben Brown +13.5
• Javier Assad +12
• Carson Kelly +10.5
• Nico Hoerner -12.5
• Edward Cabrera -12.5
• Jameson Taillon -13
• Dansby Swanson -17
• Caleb Thielbar -17.5

Scoreboard Watching: Padres lose (five back of Cubs). Braves win (five up). Phillies lose (one up). Diamondbacks win (four back). Brewers win (nine up, magic number 14). Dodgers lose (four up).

Up Next: The last of the four-game set with the Brewers. The Cubs will look to salvage a split. They are 2-4 to start this stretch of 13 games in 13 days. Kevin Gausman (8-11, 4.52) starts for the Cubs. He is 3-1 with a 5.14 as a Cub. Last time out, he won despite allowing five runs in five innings against the Reds. The Brewers scored three in five innings against him in April in Toronto.

24-year-old righty, Logan Henderson (9-2, 2.48) starts for the Brewers. He’s rolling, winning six of his last seven starts with a 2.09 ERA (43 innings). He last lost on August 10 at San Diego and had a quality start in that one (3 runs over 6.1 innings. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his 19 career starts. He only threw as many as six innings once before August, but then did so in all five August starts.

Once again, the matchup doesn’t look great on paper. Hopefully, Gausman keeps the team in the game. Many of the Brewers leverage relievers have now thrown in back-to-back games.

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Yordan Alvarez is arguably the best hitter in baseball right now, but he doesn't force the issue and will take what's given to him.

With a 97th percentile walk rate, and a matchup against a pitcher he is 12-24 against in his career, Alvarez headlines my MLB player props and MLB picks for Thursday, Sept. 3.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Yordan Alvarez	Over 0.5 walks	-117
Lawrence Butler	Over 0.5 singles	+133
Jake Bauers	Over 0.5 hits	-156

Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 walks (-117)

Yordan Alvarez is someone pitchers need to tread with caution against at the best of times. That holds even more true in today’s matchup against Luis Castillo.

Alvarez has hammered Castillo over the years, going 12-24 with five home runs and just two strikeouts.

The Houston Astros are not hitting well as a whole, making pitching to Alvarez an even more unnecessary risk than usual.

Alvarez has walked in 58% of games he faced a right-handed starter sitting in the 40th percentile or worse in K-BB%.

I’d play this up to -130.

• Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CHSN, SCHN

Lawrence Butler Over 0.5 singles (+133)

Lawrence Butler is sporting a .294 average over the last 30 games, and has reached safely in 16 of his past 17.

While his season numbers against lefties are nothing to write home about, he has quietly hit fastballs and sliders – which happen to be Kade Anderson’s two primary pitches.

Butler owns a .292 average facing LH fastballs, and .263 against the slider. Anderson throws one of the two pitches more than 87% of the time vs. lefties.

Nearly 71% of Butler’s hits against lefties were singles, and I like his chances of getting one today. 

Play to +110.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSCA, SEAM

Jake Bauers Over 0.5 hits (-156)

Jake Bauers has hit .268 against right-handed pitching this season, and that number has climbed to .290 over the past 30 games.

Kevin Gausman ranks in the 27th percentile in batting average allowed to left-handed hitters, making this an appealing spot for Bauers to pick up a knock.

What really makes Bauers an attractive buy is how he’s handled the fastball-splitter combination.

Bauers has hit .330 or higher against both of those pitches, and they account for nearly 95% of what Gausman throws to lefties.

I’d back Bauers to -185.

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: FOX

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Team News

Diamondbacks bullpen has finest hour in shutout vs. Phillies: ‘We take pride in what we do’

Taylor Clarke, Derek Law, Kevin Ginkel, Jose Cabrera, Brandyn Garcia, Jonathan Loaisiga and Juan Morillo stymied the Phillies for three hits and two walks. It was the most pitchers used in a nine-inning shutout win in franchise history.

“It was cool to see everybody piece it together,” Garcia said. “I think that we’re just really close as a group.”
https://arizonasports.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks/diamondbacks-bullpen-has-its-finest-hour-in-shutout-win-over-phillies

McCann’s first-pitch go-ahead HR in 8th snaps D-backs’ 3-game slide
McCann knew Painter had gotten him out on breaking pitches in his previous two at-bats, but wasn’t necessarily sitting on a breaking ball in the eighth. He knew that Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto is an excellent game-caller, so he was prepared for anything they might throw his way.

“It was definitely one of those games where really either way — they come up with a big hit and the momentum shifts in their favor, we come up with a big hit and [it shifts in] our favor,” McCann said. “That’s a good quality team over there. It was a great series.”

https://www.mlb.com/dbacks/news/james-mccann-hits-go-ahead-homer-in-diamondbacks-win

How D-backs Pulled Off Improbable Bullpen Game Shutout Over Phillies
https://www.si.com/mlb/diamondbacks/onsi/how-diamondbacks-improbable-bullpen-game-shutout-phillies

D-backs Give New Injury Update on Gallen, Burnes, Soroka and Morehttps://www.si.com/mlb/diamondbacks/onsi/diamondbacks-new-injury-update-gallen-burnes-soroka-more

Other Baseball

The FBI investigation of Mark Walter, no matter the outcome, will have a negative impact on the perception of the Dodgers

https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/article/the-fbi-investigation-of-mark-walter-no-matter-the-outcome-will-have-a-negative-impact-on-the-perception-of-the-dodgers-214433120.html

New Rays Owner: Stadium Deal Should Lead To Significant Payroll Increasehttps://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/09/rays-rumors-top-15-payroll-new-stadium.html

Pirates, Jose Herrera Agree To Minor League Contracthttps://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/09/pirates-jose-herrera-agree-to-minor-league-contract.html

Ranking the 10 most impactful Trade Deadline moves, one month later
https://www.mlb.com/news/best-mlb-trade-deadline-moves-2026

Crew bats back up Miz after streak of 3 ER or less ends at 25
https://www.mlb.com/brewers/news/jacob-misiorowski-five-earned-runs-brewers-cubs

Stewart a lock for NL Rookie of the Year? The numbers back it up
https://www.mlb.com/reds/news/sal-stewart-legendary-rookie-season-reds

Acuña Jr. fastest in MLB history to reach 200 HRs and 200 SBs
https://www.mlb.com/braves/news/ronald-acuna-jr-fastest-to-200-homers-and-200-stolen-bases

Anything Goes

This day in history:

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/september-3

This day in baseball:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/September_3

25% of the oxygen we breathe is used by the brain.

This oxygen is used to help blood cells circulate the brain and allow it to function normally. The brain also uses three times as much oxygen as the muscles in the body do. 

Giraffes cannot swim.

A giraffe can maintain its balance on land due to its gait. However, research has shown that this balance is ineffective in the water. This makes them one of the worst swimmers in the animal kingdom.

Pepsi is named after indigestion.

When Caleb Bradham created Pepsi in 1965, he named it after the word “dyspepsia,” or indigestion. Bradham believed that his fizzy drink would help cure indigestion, hence the name, Pepsi. 

Two years ago if one said David Stearns would miss the playoffs two consecutive seasons there is no chance he would be still employed. What are the fans missing that he still has a job? Minor league development hasn’t been all that great either. -- @AndrewLiv

I don’t think fans are missing anything in the sense that in some markets, Stearns would be out of a job. I do think fans might be underestimating Steve Cohen’s patience and his willingness to give Stearns time to realize his vision -- I certainly underestimated that, to be honest.

More than anything, though, I think Cohen is deeply reluctant to duplicate the kind of front office churn he experienced in his early years. He wants to make the Mets a destination for smart baseball people, and he knows that smart baseball people believe growing an annual juggernaut takes time. 

Firing Stearns this year, or even last, would have signaled to anyone considering a job here that their leash is short and their process must work immediately. Whether fans agree with that argument is another thing. I think it’s fair to wonder whether, given this franchise’s budget, a head of baseball operations should be able to turn things around quickly.

Still, if Cohen deemed two down seasons and one miracle postseason was too quick a hook, I wouldn’t be surprised if he decides three amounts to leaving the starter in too long. If the Mets struggle to start next year and endure another mediocre summer, I expect Cohen to move on, but he has surprised us all with his patience before.

What the heck are the Mets gonna do at 2B for next season? -- @MichaelTConte

I know this is the underlying premise of the question, but I want to make sure I say it: Marcus Semien has been a good and durable player for a long time. He is as professional and tough as they come. But only one player in baseball has a lower OPS (.652) than he does since the start of last season, and the defensive metrics suggest the 35-year-old’s defense is diminishing, too.

That said, the Mets still owe Semien $26 million for 2027 and $20 million in 2028. I do not expect them to eat that money without first trying to get something out of him in those years -- so here’s what I expect:

I expect Semien enters spring training with a chance to be the starting second baseman, but I expect prospects like Jefferson Rojas, Mitch Voit, and Emilien Pitre to be in camp with him. I would expect Semien to split time at second, maybe with someone like Baty, until either one of them or one of the young guys seizes the playing time moving forward.

And whenever the Mets decide someone other than Semien should be starting at second base every day, I expect they will move him to a bench role because he has experience all over the infield, has played in big games, and is a sturdy veteran whose work ethic sets a tone. 

I wouldn’t be stunned if the Mets end up buying out his contract, but I also wouldn’t be stunned to see him finish it out -- particularly if more limited playing time improves his health, range, and offensive production.

Will Brett Baty flashes mean the Mets give him another year? Vientos a goner? Alvarez ever gonna fulfill his promise? -- @jimmyzcb1

I think Brett Baty gets another year, yes. I think the new coaching staff threw some things at him offensively that they are hoping will click, and I think his defensive versatility is treasured by Stearns and Co.’s models. He can be valuable to a winning team off the bench. I do not necessarily think he gets another year penciled into the starting lineup, however.

Vientos is a tough read. I think Andy Green’s firm words about his future recently -- implying, basically, that they aren’t going to clear a path for him to stay here and he’s going to have to clear one himself -- signal frustration. 

Even with uncertainty at first base next year, I do not see a path for him there. And if he is a right-handed power option off the bench, he probably won’t get enough at-bats to establish himself.

I think Vientos is a non-tender candidate this winter, though their loyalty to this generation of young Mets always exceeds my expectations. At least a few people I’ve talked to about Vientos think he could find more regular success elsewhere. Of the three guys mentioned in this question, I think he is most likely to depart this winter.

As for Alvarez, he is frustrating because he is so close to being a superstar -- he cares about what he does, his power is incredible, but he just can’t seem to: a) find offensive consistency, b) lay off the high fastball enough to make opponents change their plans against him.

I am not sure he will become a superstar, I think he will become a more valuable big-league catcher, in part because the Mets do not need him to carry a heavy workload while they have Luis Torrens. 

If Alvarez can be consistent enough to play four times a week and hit 15-20 homers while not being a liability defensively, that’s a valuable player. It might not be the player everyone wanted him to be, but in a league light on power-hitting catchers who can actually handle duties behind the plate, it’s not nothing. 

And maybe he still figures it out and pushes himself into a different tier of player, the talent is certainly still there.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (68-65) lost 2-1 (BOX SCORE)

Sugar Land went with a bullpen game as King got the start and tossed a scoreless first. The offense got on the board in the third on a Brooks RBI groundout. Weiss went 3 innings in relief allowing one run. The rest of the pen was solid too but the Aces picked up a run in the 8th. The Sugar Land offense was unable to get anything else going as they fell 2-1.

Note: Ferreras is hitting .318 in Triple-A.

• Trenton Brooks, DH: 0-for-2, RBI, BB
• Pascanel Ferreras, 3B: 2-for-4, 2 2B
• Lucas Spence, CF: 1-for-4, R, 2B

• Bryan King, LHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Ryan Weiss, RHP: 3.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
• Nic Swanson, RHP: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
• Logan VanWey, RHP: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• Michael Knorr, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (59-69) won 4-0 (BOX SCORE)

Schiavone got the scoring started early with a 2 run home run in the first inning. Hertzler started for the Hooks and was solid tossing 3 scoreless innings with 4 strikeouts. The offense added a Janek solo home run in the 3rd and a Whitaker RBI double in the 4th to extend the lead. The bullpen was great tossing 6 scoreless innings as they closed out the 4-0 win.

Note: Schiavone has 31 home runs this season.

• Tyler Whitaker, CF: 3-for-4, R, 2B, RBI
• Jason Schiavone, DH: 1-for-3, R, HR, 2 RBI, BB
• Walker Janek, C: 1-for-4, R, HR, RBI
• Alberto Hernandez, SS: 1-for-4, 2B
• Marcus Brown, 2B: 0-for-2, R, BB, SB

• Cole Hertzler, RHP: 3.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
• Joey Mancini, RHP: 3.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K (WIN)
• Colby Langford, LHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• Andrew Marrero, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Amilcar Chirinos, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

A+: Asheville Tourists (42-84) lost 4-2 (BOX SCORE)

Perez starter for Asheville and pitched well allowing 1 run over 6 innings with 6 strikeouts. The offense got on the board in the 2nd inning on a Monistere solo home run. In the third, Fielder connected on a solo home run to give Asheville the lead. Cruz relieved Perez but allowed 3 runs as the Grasshoppers took the lead. The offense was unable to respond as Asheville fell 4-2.

Note: Perez has 132 strikeouts over 110 innings this season.

• Nick Monistere, 2B: 1-for-3, R, HR, RBI
• Jadyn Fielder, LF: 1-for-3, R, HR, RBI

• Javier Perez, RHP: 0.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• Anthony Cruz, RHP: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
• Max Martin, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (71-55) lost 5-4 (BOX SCORE)

Fraide started for the Woodpeckers and was solid allowing 2 runs, both unearned, over 4 innings while striking out 6. Fraide was relieved by Serrano who allowed 3 runs over 4 innings. The offense got on the board in the 6th on a Hughes RBI single. They scored 3 more runs in the 7th on Galloway RBI single, passed ball and a run on a double steal. The offense was unable to score again though as they fell 5-4.

Note: Hughes is hitting .333 this season.

• Logan Hughes, 1B: 2-for-4, RBI
• Ben Tryon, DH: 1-for-3, R, 2B, BB
• Rashawn Galloway, C: 1-for-1, R, RBI

• Juan Fraide, RHP: 4.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
• Jose Serrano, RHP: 4.0 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Jason Alexander – 7:05 CT

CC: Alonzo Tredwell – 6:35 CT

AV: Adam Shoemaker – 5:35 CT

FV: TBD – 6:00 CT

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It's a quiet nine-game slate across the majors today, and I've pinpointed my best MLB moneyline picks for every single matchup. 

See it all in my MLB picks for Thursday, Sept. 3. 

MLB moneyline picks for September 3

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Matchup	Pick
Giants vs Pirates	60%
Blue Jays vs Guardians	50%
White Sox vs Astros	61%
Red Sox vs Orioles	56%
Brewers vs Cubs	52%
Marlins vs Royals	52%
Rays vs Rangers	47%
Athletics vs Mariners	66%
Cardinals vs Dodgers	73%

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 9-3.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for September 3

Giants at Pirates: Pirates

Pirates win probability: 60%

Pittsburgh has the cleaner full-game profile with Lake Bachar opening and a bullpen that’s been excellent lately, posting a 3.27 FIP over the last week with no homer damage.

San Francisco’s lineup has lacked power, while Blade Tidwell’s recent 5.81 FIP and 2.53 HR/9 give the Pirates a clear scoring path at PNC Park.

That makes Pittsburgh the side.

Blue Jays at Guardians: Blue Jays

Blue Jays win probability: 50%

Both starters here are in good form. Tanner Bibee sports a 3.35 FIP across his last two starts, while Jose Soriano owns a 3.51 FIP during that same span. 

However, Toronto's offensive form gives them the edge. The Jays have a 117 wRC+ over the last week, while the Guardians have struggled at the dish, posting an 86 wRC+. 

I'll comfortably side with Toronto. 

White Sox at Astros: Astros

Astros win probability: 61%

You can't ignore Luis Castillo's form right now. The White Sox trade deadline acquisition has a horrendous 11.05 FIP across his previous two appearances, allowing 5.40 HR/9 and a 51.6% hard-hit rate. 

Hunter Brown, meanwhile, is dealing for the Astros, compiling a 2.85 FIP over the last two weeks. Houston isn't thriving offensively lately, but Castillo's vulnerability is the perfect opportunity for them to wake up, and they're around the league average at home. 

Lock in the Astros. 

Red Sox at Orioles: Red Sox

Red Sox win probability: 56%

Jake Bennett is lights out for the Red Sox, carrying a 2.33 FIP into tonight's outing over the last two weeks. He's also given up minimal home runs while consistently pounding the strike zone. 

Brandon Young is in much worse shape, collecting a 4.99 FIP during that span with 1.42 HR/9 allowed. Boston's 103 wRC+ is 30 points higher than Baltimore's across the last seven games, too. 

The Red Sox are the clear pick. 

Brewers at Cubs: Brewers

Brewers win probability: 52%

The Brewers will be feeling confident with Logan Henderson on the bump tonight against the Cubbies. He has a 2.87 FIP across his last 13 innings of work, allowing minimal walks and home runs. 

That will be key against a red-hot Chicago offense, which has posted a ridiculous 180 wRC+ in the last week. But Henderson is in the type of form that can slow them down, even if it might not be a flawless outing. 

Kevin Gausman has shown vulnerability lately, collecting a 4.10 FIP with 1.61 HR/9 over the last month. Milwaukee is also crushing baseballs with a 137 wRC+ in its previous seven games. 

We could see lots of runs here, but the Brewers have the slight edge on the hill. 

Marlins at Royals: Royals

Royals win probability: 51%

Kansas City's offensive form is the decider tonight. The Royals have a 125 wRC+ in the last week, and although Sandy Alcantara has been impressive lately with a 2.40 FIP, he has struggled at times on the road, posting a 4.41 FIP this season. 

Michael Wacha owns a 2.37 xERA recently with minimal home runs allowed, and the Marlins are right around the league average offensively at the moment. 

Take the hosts. 

Rays at Rangers: Rangers 

Rangers win probability: 47%

Shane McClanahan has looked decent, but I really like the Rangers' offensive profile in this matchup. They're one of the few lineups that thrive against left-handed pitching, posting a 112 wRC+ this season. 

Cal Quantrill has also been fantastic lately for Texas, and his 2.93 FIP over the last two weeks will be sufficient to contain the Rays tonight. 

Texas is the play. 

Athletics at Mariners: Mariners

Mariners win probability: 66%

The Mariners are swinging it with authority, carrying a 109 wRC+ and 10% barrel rate over the last week into tonight's contest. They will face Jack Perkins, who has a 6.20 FIP recently, with major command and home run issues. 

Kade Anderson has had his problems as well lately, but his 2.29 xERA suggests he's been better than the numbers say, and he's limited opponents to a 32.1% hard-hit rate in his last two appearances.

Seattle will keep flourishing. 

Cardinals at Dodgers: Dodgers

Dodgers win probability: 73%

Obviously, the win probability doesn't scream value here, but you simply cannot go against Tarik Skubal. He sports a ridiculous 0.56 FIP over his last two starts with the Dodgers, not allowing a single home run. The Cardinals are right around the league average offensively lately, but Skubal's dominance is hard to ignore. 

Quinn Matthews has held his own as well with a 3.56 xERA recently, but his 40% hard-hit rate over the last two weeks shows vulnerability, and the Dodgers have an impressive 105 wRC+ against left-handed hurlers. 

Another win for L.A. here. 

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