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Injuries are a real party pooper. Just like with the major league roster, the Yankees’ top prospects are dropping like flies. With several top hitters and pitchers injured, the guys on the periphery are going to get a chance to shine, and there’s one guy in particular who’s starting to gain some real helium down in Tampa.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Record: 7-4 (44-41), 2 GB in the International League East after a 4-1 week against the Norfolk Tides (Orioles)

Run differential: +13 (+16)

Coming up: Away @ Buffalo Bison (Blue Jays)

It was a good start to July for the RailRiders in the win column, bouncing back from a loss on Tuesday to win four straight to close out the week. Saturday’s game was postponed due to rain and was never made up, as only one game was barely squeezed in on Sunday. But while they picked up some wins, this level’s prospect pedigree is shrinking fast.

George Lombard Jr. should be back soon, though probably not until after a Futures Game he’ll likely miss. Garrett Martin went on the injured list a week ago. Brendan Beck filled in for the big league club on the Fourth of July due to Carlos Rodón’s injury, and while he was optioned shortly after, you’d expect Elmer Rodríguez to get promoted in his place for this week. The big kicker, though, is Carlos Lagrange’s season potentially being over because of a shoulder injury. He’s in no-throw for six weeks, which makes a September return the best-case scenario. So much for a 2026 big league debut…

In a depleted lineup that will, at least, welcome back Spencer Jones this coming week, there’s not too much to write home about. JC Escarra has been good as he stays ready for his next big league opportunity, while Ernesto Martinez Jr. and Marco Luciano have hit well. The team’s most reliable hitter, though, has been Jonathan Ornelas, as the 26-year-old journeyman has been hitting over .300 all season long and came through with a walk-off grand slam on Sunday.

Beck’s emergency promotion thinned the rotation. Dom Hamel allowed six runs in six innings, Alexander Cornielle didn’t finish the fourth in a choppy outing on Friday, and Adam Kloffenstein pitched well on Tuesday. Rodríguez tossed a quality start on Wednesday, getting through 6.2 innings, but the main storyline was the promotion of former third-round pick Kyle Carr, who didn’t allow an earned run in 5.2 innings on Sunday in his Triple-A debut.

The Scranton Shuttle keeps on shuffling the bullpen. Jake Bird and Angel Chivilli are up, while Yovanny Cruz is back down and has really strung together some good outings to get out of a minor funk he had prior to his second promotion. Outside of him, Danny Watson and Zach Messinger have remained under-the-radar, low-velocity arms that have been effective in their roles.

Players of Note:

George Lombard Jr.: .231/.381/.385, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 16 XBH, 8 SB, 109 wRC+ (injured)
Garrett Martin (AA/AAA): .270/.337/.570, 24 HR, 64 RBI, 18 SB, 135 wRC+ (injured)
Brendan Beck: 7-2, 3.07 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 1.02 WHIP, 18.1 K-BB% (88 IP)
Elmer Rodríguez: 4-3, 2.93 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 11.4 K-BB% (61.1 IP)
Carlos Lagrange: 1-4, 4.55 ERA, 4.84 FIP, 1.36 WHIP, 17.8 K-BB% (63.1 IP) (injured)

Double-A Somerset Patriots

Record: 5-7 (42-39), 3 GB in the Eastern League Northeast after a 3-3 week against the Hartford Yard Goats (Rockies)

Run differential: -1 (+35)

Coming up: Home vs. Reading Fightin’ Phils (Phillies)

It was a week of inconsistency down in Somerset, as two early-week victories weren’t able to yield anything other than a split after they scored just one run on Saturday and Sunday combined.

Because of promotions, the offense is a shell of what it was when they dominated the Eastern League with gaudy power numbers for the first two months. They’re leaning on Jace Avina and Coby Morales right now for production, with DJ Gladney and a resurgent Jackson Castillo helping out. They really need some other bats to step up, but where will it come from? The catching room is depleted, Connor McGinnis has been so-so in the infield, and others haven’t picked up the slack.

It was a tale of two starts for Cade Smith, who got a rare double this week. He was great on Tuesday with six strong innings, but didn’t record a strikeout in five rough innings on Sunday. Xavier Rivas lasted just two innings after struggling with the ridiculous heat on Wednesday night, Jack Cebert (6 IP, 2 R, 6 K) tossed a quality start on Thursday, Chase Hampton tossed four shutout innings, and Ben Hess allowed three runs in four innings.

The bullpen welcomed back a key piece from injury in Geoffrey Gilbert, but they continue to rely on Tony Rossi to throw big innings, in which he’s been up and down. Harrison Cohen has been good in relief since he was sent back down, while Ben Grable finally allowed a run on Thursday, but continues to be the man to watch in that bullpen. Hayden Merda also bounced back big time with a five-strikeout outing.

Players of Note:

Jace Avina: .272/.360/.540, 16 HR, 44 RBI, 34 XBH, 28.3 K%, 137 wRC+
Jackson Castillo: .273/.355/.424, 4 HR, 33 RBI, 7 SB, 112 wRC+
Coby Morales: .278/.359/.513, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 12 SB, 131 wRC+
Xavier Rivas: 4-3, 4.82 ERA, 4.95 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 22.4 K-BB% (52.1 IP)
Ben Grable (A+/AA): 3-1, 2.70 ERA, 2.75 FIP, 0.80 WHIP, 30.5 K-BB% (30 IP)

High-A Hudson Valley Renegades

Record: 7-8 (38-42), 4 GB in the South Atlantic League North Second Half after a 3-3 week against the Wilmington Blue Rocks (Nationals)

Run differential: +8 (+17)

Coming up: Home vs. Rome Emperors (Braves)

The Renegades basically had the exact opposite week as Somerset. They got off to a bad start, going 1-3 heading into the weekend before back-to-back wins on Fourth of July weekend to salvage a sweep. Sunday’s game was especially thrilling, as Hudson Valley blew a 4-3 lead in the ninth, but rallied to come back on a massive walk-off homer by Kyle West.

Wilson Rodriguez, a former 18th-round pick out of Puerto Rico, has silently become their best and most consistent hitter, carrying an offense that’s struggling. Kaeden Kent is still around .300, but he’s not slugging much and just hit the shelf with an injury. Enmanuel Tejada has struggled of late, Kyle West hasn’t made enough contact around his light-tower power, and guys like Roderick Arias and Camden Troyer are the human embodiment of hot and cold.

Bryce Cunningham (5.2 IP, 5 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 1 K) took a step back in his Tuesday start, struggling with command. Luis Serna and Allen Facundo had identical starts, each allowing four runs over six innings. Franyer Herrera and Sean Paul Liñan scuffled, but there was some progress in one regard this week as 2025 sixth-round pick Rory Fox allowed just one run in 5.2 innings in another strong start.

The bullpen was good all week. Wilmy Sanchez and Bryce Warrecker got big outs, with the latter continuing a terrific season that’s seen him pitch to a 1.64 ERA in 22 innings across two levels. A few of them got screwed over with shoddy defense, like with what happened to Jack Sokol on Sunday when he “blew” the ninth inning with three unearned runs.

Players of Note:

Kaeden Kent: .302/.359/.433, 6 HR, 43 RBI, 28 XBH, 20 SB, 107 wRC+
Core Jackson: .248/.344/.452, 10 HR, 37 RBI, 23 SB, 106 wRC+
Wilson Rodriguez: .262/.381/.437, 8 HR, 42 RBI, 18 SB, 116 wRC+
Luis Serna: 3-4, 4.18 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, 16.4 K-BB% (71 IP)
Bryce Cunningham: 2-4, 4.19 ERA, 5.44 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 9.3 K-BB% (43 IP)

Single-A Tampa Tarpons

Record: 11-4 (46-35), 2.5 GA in the Florida State League West after a 5-1 week against the St. Lucie Mets (Mets)

Run differential: +21 (+44)

Coming up: Home vs. Clearwater Threshers (Phillies)

Tampa keeps cooking. They won three games via shutout and dominated from Tuesday to Saturday with five consecutive wins before a bullpen collapse spoiled the sweep on Sunday. They led 5-1 after seven before allowing nine runs in two innings.

They’re doing it mostly with pitching, but don’t confuse that with bad offense. Sure, they’re no longer getting carried by the likes of Jackson Lovich and Hans Montero while Luis Escudero’s hot bat is on the shelf. It’s the depth of the lineup with guys like Luis Puello behind the plate, JoJo Jackson in the outfield, Logan Maxwell returning from injury, and a blistering hot bat from 2025 UDFA David McCann:

Onto the pitching, which is downright incredible. Justin West got things started with 5.2 shutout innings on Tuesday, followed by Thatcher Hurd (5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K) completing five innings for the first time as a pro on Wednesday. JT Etheridge followed up Wyatt Parliament’s mediocre start on Thursday with four shutout innings as a piggyback; Henry Lalane continued to be incredible on Friday; Tyler Boudreau tossed a quality start on Saturday, and Brennan Stuprich tossed four strong innings on Sunday.

The bullpen was inconsistent. Jose M. Rodriguez continued to impress, now holding a 2.51 ERA in 32.1 innings with 45 strikeouts, but a blowup on Sunday soils a lot of numbers for his teammates. Brian Hendry continued his rehab with 1.1 innings on Wednesday, and I’m curious what the team’s plan is for him. He’s already 26 but has dominated in the limited time he’s been on the mound. I’d compare him to Brendan Beck from a few years ago, but his stuff is quite a bit better.

Players of Note:

Jackson Lovich: .284/.357/.513, 14 HR, 52 RBI, 30 XBH, 20 SB, 127 wRC+
Bryce Martin-Grudzielanek: .258/.368/.413, 9 HR, 37 RBI, 25 SB, 112 wRC+
Hans Montero: .238/.363/.426, 8 HR, 40 RBI, 27 XBH, 21 SB, 114 wRC+
Tyler Boudreau: 4-2, 3.31 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 1.09 WHIP, 19.7 K-BB% (68 IP)
Henry Lalane: 4-1, 2.74 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 0.99 WHIP, 23.9 K-BB% (62.1 IP)

FCL Yankees

Record: 23-24, 7 GB in the FCL North after a 2-3 week.

Run differential: +14

The FCL Yankees are all but dead in the playoff race, sitting five games behind the wild-card spot occupied by the FCL Orioles with just 13 games to go. The bats cooled off this week, but Wilberson De Pena and Dexters Peralta continue to be the two most prolific home run hitters in all of rookie ball.

Blake Gillespie’s season is likely over due to injury, so the rotation is just a hodgepodge right now. Jerson Alejandro, a mountain of a man at 6-foot-6, 255 pounds, has re-emerged after injuries but is struggling. Sabier Marte continues to slowly improve, while Austin Breedlove and Edinzo Marquez are dominating in the bullpen.

Players of Note:

Wilberson De Pena: .342/.399/.663, 13 HR, 53 RBI, 31 XBH, 18 SB, 148 wRC+
Jose Castro: .297/.492/.538, 6 HR, 24 RBI, 25 SB, 158 wRC+
Richard Matic: .309/.427/.481, 20 XBH, 27 RBI, 14 SB, 126 wRC+
Sabier Marte: 34.1 IP, 5.77 ERA, 4.85 FIP, 1.46 WHIP, 16.3 K-BB%
Austin Breedlove: 21 IP, 1.71 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 18.0 K-BB%

DSL Yankees & Bombers

DSL Yankees:
Record: 15-10, 0.5 GB in DSL East after a 3-2 week
Run differential: +94

DSL Bombers:
Record: 11-15, 6 GB in DSL Southeast after a 2-4 week
Run differential: -26

Did you know the DSL Yankees have the best run differential of any Dominican affiliate? They’ve won by some truly comical margins with a ferocious offense powered by Isaias Castillo and Juan Torres, but have lost some brutal close games. That first week of the season where they seemed to choke every other game away in the late innings hurts.

Not much is going on with the Bombers, who have seven-figure prospect Mani Cedeno struggling. It’s still early in his pro career, but the more the last few classes of international prospects struggle, the more you understand why Danny Rowland was canned when he was, sacrificing the most recent international class.

Players of Note:

Isaias Castillo: .330/.444/.699, 8 HR, 27 RBI, 20 XBH, 10 SB, 159 wRC+ (124 PA)
Juan Torres: .373/.436/.686, 5 HR, 33 RBI, 20 XBH, 11 SB, 151 wRC+ (117 PA)
Stiven Marinez: .289/.420/.567, 5 HR, 30 RBI, 18 SB, 145 wRC+ (119 PA)
Fredy Penuelas: 20.1 IP, 0.44 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 1.03 WHIP, 26.8 K-BB%
Yunior Jerez: 20.2 IP, 3.05 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 0.87 WHIP, 17.7 K-BB%

Prospect of the Week: Henry Lalane

Weekly Stats: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 11 K
Season Stats: 4-1, 2.74 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 0.99 WHIP, 23.9 K-BB% (62.1 IP)

This is now the third time in the last month and a change that we’ve had Lalane as Prospect of the Week, and for good reason. In his most recent dominant start, he was absolutely untouchable in the early innings, eventually racking up 11 strikeouts in another walk-less start. Since May 17, he’s allowed just five earned runs in 42.1 innings with 61 strikeouts to just 10 walks. This is phenomenal stuff.

It’s getting to the point where I actively question if he might be the team’s best starting pitcher prospect. Hess, Cunningham, and Hampton’s stocks are all down this year. ERC is going to graduate in the coming weeks. Lagrange is in the bullpen. There’s real runway to get to Top 100 prospect status with a strong summer from Lalane.

Monday night was a notable game in franchise history for the Dodgers, and not just because the team played their first extra-inning game of 2026, snapping a 91-game stretch that was the second-longest to open a season without playing past nine innings, seven games behind the 2005 Boston Red Sox.

The series opener against the Colorado Rockies was more historical, encompassing the entirety of 143 years as a franchise. Between the regular season and postseason combined, the Dodgers in Brooklyn played 11,109 games. Monday night was the Dodgers’ 11,109th such game since moving to Los Angeles.

The franchise started in Brooklyn in 1884 in the American Association, where they would play for six seasons before joining the National League in 1890.

The World Series as we know it didn’t begin until 1903, but earlier attempts to determine a champion were less series. For example, the Dodgers won the National League in 1890 and played the American Association-champion Louisville Cardinals in the “World’s Championship Series,” but the series ended in a tie (3-3-1) and was never settled. The Dodgers’ only other 19th century postseason was in 1889, when they lost in the postseason to the NL-champion New York Giants, six games to three.

Brooklyn also finished first in the National League in both 1899 and 1900, but had no postseason to play.

In the modern era, the Brooklyn Dodgers played in nine World Series, totaling 56 games. Since moving to Los Angeles, the Dodgers have played in 14 World Series and 79 Fall Classic games, but also 174 other postseason games.

At the moment, 143 years of Dodgers history is perfectly balanced between Brooklyn and Los Angeles.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Orioles fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

More than halfway into the 2026 season, the Orioles have not yet emerged from the disappointing rut they fell into early on. They have avoided the kind of disaster that destroyed their season early last year. That’s something. However, they still have to actually find success. As we experience weekly, they just can’t manage to do this consistently.

In this week’s survey, the question is very simple. Are the Orioles going to figure this thing out and make it into the postseason? Vote below:

The odds are not in their favor as they sit 3.5 games out of the third AL Wild Card spot. At Baseball Reference, the team has a 10.9% chance of getting into the playoffs. FanGraphs currently gives the Orioles a better, but still bad, 19.9% chance of making it. No one would want to have their life or any meaningful amount of money staked on odds ranging from 5-1 to 9-1.

Even after three months of watching these doofuses, and even considering my inherent pessimistic streak, it’s still hard to avoid wondering what this team could look like if just a couple more pieces fall into place. Gunnar Henderson starting to hit like a star again would be the biggest help. Maybe ahead of the trade deadline, Mike Elias will acquire someone useful, sorry, he won’t, I don’t know why I even said that.

The vibes remain confusing. How are you feeling now? Let us know in the comments below.

Following a fantastic 5-1 homestand, the Mariners head to Florida for a six-game road trip during the final week of play before the All-Star break. If they win both of these series, Seattle will effectively match their first-half record from last year — they were 51-45 at the break in 2025. For a season that’s felt so up and down, the M’s really aren’t in such a bad position. They definitely haven’t played up to their talent level, and they’re benefitting from a thoroughly mediocre American League, but FanGraphs gives them the highest odds to win their division of any of the division leaders around the league.

The Marlins were the best team in baseball in the month of June, running a 20-6 record that vaulted them into the thick of the NL Wild Card race. Their pitching staff was characteristically fantastic, allowing just 3.1 runs per game last month. The real surprise has been the offense; they scored 5.1 runs per game in June and their lineup now has a 103 wRC+ on the season. That would be the highest mark in franchise history, and two of the four times the team has had a wRC+ of 99 or higher, it won the World Series. No big deal.

The Marlins don’t have a superstar anchoring their lineup. Instead, they’re benefitting from breakouts from a bunch of their young role players all at the same time. Liam Hicks, Otto Lopez, and Xavier Edwards are the core trio that have been driving the production all season long. The thing all three of them have in common is an excellent approach at the plate and elite bat-to-ball skills. They may not produce the loudest contact, but they rarely strikeout, take their walks, and maximize every ball they put in play. For the loud contact, the Marlins turn to Kyle Stowers. He enjoyed a huge breakout last year but injuries caused him to get off to a slow start this year. Since the beginning of June, he’s posted a 159 wRC+ with eight home runs.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Max Meyer was the Marlins’ number three overall pick in the 2020 draft but has had to overcome a bunch of obstacles en route to his breakout season this year. Tommy John surgery cost him two years of development and he’s struggled with inconsistency and additional injuries since returning from that elbow surgery. He added a sweeper and a sinker to his pitch mix last year, but he’s finally found a feel for that new breaking ball. It’s become his primary pitch alongside his sharp gyro slider and that’s made all the difference. 

The Marlins have essentially been using a four-man rotation for the past month after Janson Junk and Robby Snelling went down with injuries in May. Junk is finally close to returning — he completed a three-inning rehab outing on Saturday — though Miami hasn’t officially announced a starter for Wednesday’s game yet. Junk enjoyed a small breakout last year by honing his command to an elite level; his 2.9% walk rate led all starting pitchers with at least 100 IP last year. He doesn’t really possess a swing-and-miss weapon, though the development of a new changeup this year has given him something to build on.

Tyler Phillips bounced around a few organizations before landing with the Marlins as a multi-inning reliever last year. He saw a little bit of high-leverage work, but was mostly used as a fireman who could eat up a couple of innings before giving way to the setup men or closer. This year, Miami has used him more frequently as a bulk reliever operating behind an opener, though seven of his last eight outings have been traditional starts. He’s got a really weird profile: he has three bat-missing weapons in his two breaking balls and a splitter but he relies too heavily on a mediocre sinker instead of featuring those secondary pitches. The result is far too many balls in play early in the count before he can finish off batters with one of those swing-and-miss pitches.

The Big Picture:

The Rangers wound up dropping the final two games of their series against the Tigers to fall to 1.5 games back in the division; they’ll host the Angels for three games this week. The Astros managed to win their series against the Rays last weekend but dropped the first game of a series in Washington yesterday; they’re now three games back in the division and just 1.5 games back in the Wild Card race. The Athletics are on the verge of dropping entirely out of the playoff picture — they were swept by the Marlins over the weekend and head to Detroit to face the Tigers this week.

One last road trip on deck before the All-Star break, and the Braves are making some roster moves ahead of tonight’s opener in Pittsburgh.

Yesterday it was Eli White, and now reliever Tyler Kinley will hit the paternity list as he welcomes a new addition to the family. Congratulations, Tyler! May the paternal powers bless you and Eli both as they have Michael Harris II and Dylan Lee this season thus far.

The Braves have recalled righty James Karinchak in Kinley’s place. Optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett on Friday, July 3, he had a 2.08 ERA in 8 games with the Braves since having his contract selected on June 10.

Karinchak will share Gwinnett shuttle to the airport with LHP Connor Thomas. A Georgia native and Georgia Tech alum, he was signed to a minor league contract this offseason. Thomas debuted last year and pitched in two games with the Milwaukee Brewers before spending some time on the IL with left elbow arthritis. He began the season on the IL with the Stripers before heading on a rehab assignment in Rome. He has a 1.14 ERA in 10 games / 23.2 innings pitched with Gwinnett. Farewell to Daysbel Hernández, who was released in order to open up the spot on the 40-man.

Owen Murphy’s call-up resulted in a kind of nightmarish scenario last night – he entered in the 10th inning tasked with keeping the game tied with the ghost runner lurking on second base. He got two quick outs, but a double by Luis Torrens drove in the aforementioned ghost runner and a Met he’d clipped with a pitch. The Braves only getting one run back in the bottom of the tenth and leave Murphy on the hook for the loss. A valiant effort by the rookie in a tough situation. But he’s Gwinnett-bound after being optioned in the other side of the move for Thomas.

What will be next on the carousel of arms?

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Tuesday's full MLB schedule offers no shortage of betting opportunities, but not every favorite is worth backing.

After breaking down every matchup, I've narrowed the slate to my favorite MLB picks for July 7, targeting teams with the strongest pitching edges, matchup advantages, and paths to victory.

MLB moneyline picks for July 7

Matchup	Pick
Brewers vs Cardinals	-190
Brewers vs Cardinals	+122
Cubs vs Orioles	-106
Athletics vs Tigers	+190
Braves vs Pirates	+135
Mariners vs Marlins	-115
Yankees vs Rays	-111
Astros vs Nationals	-113
Royals vs Mets	-138
Phillies vs Reds	-160
Guardians vs Twins	-108
Red Sox vs White Sox	+115
Angels vs Rangers	-152
Diamondbacks vs Padres	-113
Blue Jays vs Giants	+104
Rockies vs Dodgers	+245

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 7-7.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 7

Brewers vs Cardinals: Brewers (-190)

Brewers win probability: 66%

I am not getting in the way of a Jacob Misiorowski start in the year of our lord 2026. The man has been absolutely dominant, posting a 0.109 ERA and 0.76 WHIP over his last 5 outings.

On top of that, the Brewers offense has been rolling, producing a 120 wRC+, .344 wOBA, and .783 OPS over their last 12 games.

Give me Milwaukee on the run line. I’m not stepping in front of this train right now.

Brewers vs Cardinals: Cardinals (+122)

Cardinals win probability: 45%

For game two, I will bite on the Red Birds. Their offense has been solid as of late, but I would much rather back them when they are not facing the Brewers ace.

Despite the tough matchup, St. Louis has been swinging a hot bat, posting a 123 wRC+, .344 wOBA, and .781 OPS over their last 6 games.

I think this is a spot where the Cardinals can take advantage of Robert Gasser at home and sneak out a win in the second game of the series.

Cubs vs Orioles: Cubs (-106)

Cubs win probability: 52%

Two pitchers I have no respect for, give me the much hotter offense, which happens to be the Chicago Cubs.

The Orioles have been ice cold at the plate, posting an 82 wRC+, .289 wOBA, .125 ISO, and .640 OPS over their last 12 games. Meanwhile, the Cubs have been absolutely rolling, producing a 132 wRC+, .346 wOBA, and .825 OPS over their last 21 games.

When I do not trust the arms, I will gladly back the hotter lineup. Give me the Cubs in this spot.

Athletics vs Tigers: Athletics (+190)

Athletics win probability: 35%

“But it’s Tarik Skubal Day, but it’s Tarik Skubal Day!!”

I DO NOT CARE!!

I want no part of trusting an offense that has been beyond inconsistent on a day-to-day basis. I would much rather take the value on one of the best offenses in baseball at plus money than hope Skubal can hold them to 1 or 2 runs and pray the Tigers lineup can scrape together enough offense.

Give me the Athletics. Please.

Braves vs Pirates: Braves (+135)

Braves win probability: 42%

Sure, it is Paul Skenes Day, but that is usually the day the Pirates offense decides not to show up.

Meanwhile, the Braves are starting to turn things around at the plate. Over their last 6 games, Atlanta owns a 128 wRC+, .353 wOBA, and .800 OPS.

I am leaning on the trend of the Pirates’ offense disappearing on Paul Skenes Day and backing the Braves in this spot.

Mariners vs Marlins: Marlins (-115)

Marlins win probability: 54%

First off, the Marlins are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now, while the Mariners are ICE COLD.

Over their last 21 games, Seattle owns a .114 ISO, .617 OPS, and an 80 wRC+. On the other side, Miami has been rolling, posting a 139 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .217 ISO, and .849 OPS during that same stretch.

Max Meyer should be able to do enough on the mound, while the Marlins’ offense continues to take advantage of a struggling Mariners lineup and get on top of Bryan Woo.

Yankees vs Rays: Rays (-111)

Rays win probability: 48%

I am still riding the Yankees fade wagon until further notice. They have been an absolute ice cube, posting a 50 wRC+, .550 OPS, and .247 wOBA over their last 6 games.

On top of that, Will Warren has struggled over his last 5 starts, owning a 5.13 xERA and 1.64 WHIP.

Meanwhile, the Rays are playing some of their best baseball and offer value in this spot. Give me Tampa Bay.

Astros vs Nationals: Nationals (-111)

Nationals win probability: 52%

A lot of people think this is going to be another spot where Astros right-hander Tatsuya Imai shoves, especially with the elevated strikeout numbers he has posted in his most recent starts.

However, the underlying numbers still raise concerns. Over his last 5 outings, Imai owns a 7.11 ERA while allowing a 43.48% hard-hit rate and 13% barrel rate.

The Nationals' offense has been producing plenty of hard contact and has been swinging the bat extremely well. I will continue riding with the hometown team in this spot.

Royals vs Mets: Mets (-138)

Mets win probability: 58%

After the Royals finally came out of their coma and took apart Cristopher Sánchez yesterday afternoon, I want no part of them in this matchup against the Mets.

Two questionable arms take the mound, and in a spot like this, I am going to side with the clearly better offense. New York has been rolling over their last 21 games, posting a 110 wRC+, 10% walk rate, and .323 wOBA.

When the pitching matchup does not separate the teams, I will back the lineup I trust more.

Give me the Mets.

Phillies vs Reds: Phillies (-160)

Phillies win probability: 62%

One of the most swing-happy teams in baseball takes on one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game, and I will gladly ride with the Phillies after a brutal Monday afternoon.

The Reds send out Andrew Abbott, who owns a 4.75 ERA at home, against a powerful Phillies lineup that can punish mistakes. With Abbott on the mound in a hitter-friendly park, I fully expect some baseballs to leave the yard this evening.

Give me Zack Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies to bounce back.

Guardians vs Twins: Twins (-108)

Twins win probability: 52%

Despite Taj Bradley being the easiest punching bag known to man, he is still a very good strikeout pitcher, and the Guardians have been way too swing-happy as of late.

Over their last 6 games, Cleveland owns a 27% strikeout rate as a team while generating just a 6% barrel rate and 36.8% hard-hit rate.

Meanwhile, the Twins offense has been absolutely howling, posting a 137 wRC+, .366 wOBA, and .842 OPS over their last 21 games.

I think Minnesota is the far better team in this matchup.

Red Sox vs White Sox: White Sox (+115)

White Sox win probability: 46%

Death. Taxes. Take the White Sox at plus money.

Sure, Noah Schultz has not been lights out this season, but neither has Payton Tolle, who has been allowing a ton of hard contact while giving hitters plenty of opportunities to elevate the baseball.

The difference here is the offense. The White Sox have been the better lineup, producing plenty of hard contact and barrels over their last 21 games.

At plus money, I am backing the hotter offense and riding with Chicago.

Angels vs Rangers: Rangers (-153)

Rangers win probability: 60%

Another ice-cold team, the Los Angeles Angels, bring an offense that has completely disappeared lately. Over their last 12 games, they own a 69 wRC+, .266 wOBA, and .593 OPS.

On top of that, José Soriano has fallen off a cliff since May, creating a tough spot against a Rangers lineup that has started to find its rhythm.

Meanwhile, Jacob deGrom takes the mound for Texas and has been nails at home. With the better pitcher and a hotter offense, I will gladly back the Rangers in this matchup.

Diamondbacks vs Padres: Padres (-113)

Padres win probability: 53%

Zac Gallen is on the mound. Give me the Friars.

Gallen has been getting crushed over his last 3 starts, posting an 11.02 ERA, 8.24 xERA, and 1.71 WHIP while allowing a 15.38% barrel rate to opposing hitters.

Meanwhile, San Diego’s offense has been humming over the last week, and I fully expect them to take advantage of Gallen’s recent struggles.

Give me the Padres to get all over his offerings this evening.

Blue Jays vs Giants: Giants (+104)

Giants win probability: 49%

I am not the biggest believer in the Giants, but with Patrick Corbin on the mound this evening for the Blue Jays, who have been a walking corpse over the last few weeks, I have to back San Francisco.

The Giants have been the more efficient offense over the last month, and they also hold the advantage on the mound in this matchup.

Better lineup, better arm, give me the Giants.

Rockies vs Dodgers: Rockies (+245)

Rockies win probability: 29%

Purely off price, nobody should be laying -251 in this spot. Are the Dodgers a better team than the Rockies? On paper, absolutely. But at that number, the value is gone.

Over their last 6 games, Colorado’s offense has actually been performing at a much higher rate statistically. On top of that, left-hander Justin Wrobleski has shown a tendency to allow hard contact, creating opportunities for the Rockies lineup.

At +245, I think Colorado is a very live underdog and worth a look.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.