Category: Sports News

In the top of the third inning during the Red Sox’s victory in Miami Monday night, Ceddanne Rafaela watched a 2-2 sinker blow right past him for a called third strike with runners in scoring position. Wanting to extend the AB, Ceddy tapped his helmet and called for a challenge of what was very clearly a pitch that landed in the zone. The automatic ball-strike system confirmed it, and Boston was down a challenge on the night. It didn’t come back to hurt us, of course, but still: not ideal.

In that moment, I thought, “Hmm, Ceddanne isn’t really good at this ABS thing yet, huh?” None of that is to criticize Rafaela’s game; he should get down-ballot MVP votes by the time the season is over. He’s made great strides on offense and his defense is, as usual, stellar. It’s just that he’s gotta work on the challenge thing. None of us are perfect, right? I gotta lay off the carbs and get more active, we all have things we want to improve about ourselves. My doctor would probably tell me that myissue is “more important” than a professional baseball player’s ability to challenge a ball/strike call, but I digress.

That incident (and less so Wilyer Abreu’s successful challenge last night) got me wondering how the Red Sox have statistically fared in this brave new ABS world. Anecdotally, I feel like I’m not the only one who’s felt that we’ve been behind the eight ball basically from the jump this season when it comes to challenging pitches, but I wanted to see for certain. We’re about five months into the campaign now; that sample size is more than big enough to see how we’re doing.

If I could only use one word to describe the Red Sox’s 2026 ABS performance entering Monday’s games, it would be “fourteenth.” According to Baseball Savant, Boston as a team has the 14th most successful challenge rate in MLB for hitters as well as defenders (so, pitchers and catchers combined—though catchers take up the lion’s share of those challenges, with 4,398 catcher challenges leading into Monday across the bigs versus just 144 for pitchers). They’ve had a success rate at the plate of juuuuuuuust under 50% (63 won and 64 lost prior to Monday, and we went 1/2 on those offensive challenges in Miami last night) along with a 60% success rate in the field. The league-wide averages for those rates has been 48% and 58%, respectively.

The Sox are a bit more gun-shy than most when it comes to actually pulling the trigger on an ABS challenge. Their 4.4% challenge rate on offense leading into Monday’s action was the 15th highest in the league—so, right smack in the middle of the majors—while their 2.1% defensive challenge rate is the 10th lowest in baseball. Boston’s actual run value on overturns on their challenges minus their expected run value was -1.7 leading into play on Monday (can I stop prefacing all of these stats with the fact that they weren’t updated after game one in Miami? I think you get it by now), which is 23rd best in baseball. How they calculate that exactly, I’m not sure, but I feel like it’s worth mentioning.

As for specific players, your mind has not been playing tricks on you if you had the same thought I did regarding Mista Rafaela. He is, statistically speaking, the worst ABS challenging hitter on the team by a considerable margin. His net run value versus expectation (again, not 100% sure how you calculate that, but it’s late and I’m tired) is -2.1. Hell, that might be worse by the time the list on Savant updates in the morning. The two next closest guys at the bottom of the list are Willson Conteras (-1.6) and Andruw Monasterio (-1.0). Mona’s only challenged six pitches (and he’s lost five), while Contreras is rocking a 7-13 W-L record on ABS challenges at the plate. Ceddy’s got six wins and 18 (!!!!) losses—yikes.

The good news is that basically everybody else on the roster is above average when it comes to challenging balls and strikes. Mickey Gasper, Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran, Nick Sogard, Wilyer Abreu, Anthony Siegler, and Caleb Durbin are all guys who have tapped their helmets at least four times and have come out with a success rate higher than the league average of 48%. Durbin specifically seems to be awesome at this; he’s 13/20 on ABS calls. It’s just Ceddy’s 23 challenges and Contreras’ 20 challenges bringing the success rate down.

Durbin actually ranks in the top 10-in baseball for net ABS overturns versus expected with 5.7. Rafaela in that very same metric, meanwhile, ranks………..well, dead fuckin’ last in MLB with -10. Not to be totally outdone: Contreras is fifth-worst in baseball there with -7.3.

For what it’s worth: no one else on the team besides Durbin, Rafaela, and Contreras has double-digit offensive challenges.

With the catchers behind the plate: Connor Wong has a 64% success rate on 39 challenges (-1.6 overturns over expected), while Adley Rutschman has a 69% (nice) success rate on 13 challenges (1.8 overturns over expected) during his time in Boston.

That clearly doesn’t tell the full story about Rutschman, though, since he’s in the top-10 in the league in that expected metric. While in Baltimore, Adley had 10.5 overturns vs. expected; his 12.4 ABS overturns over expectation has been good for sixth in baseball. One thing to keep an eye on as the season winds down: Rutschman’s challenge rate in Baltimore was 1.3% (almost a full percentage point below what would be his expected challenge rate), while his challenge rate within his small Boston sample size had been 3.3% prior to Monday (almost a full percentage point above the expected rate). Maybe the Sox brain trust is persuading Adley—who we already know is a very capable defender—to trust his judgement of the zone more often?

The entire Red Sox pitching staff has challenged exactly four (4) pitches from the mound in 2026. Ryan Watson won one challenge, Sonny Gray is .500 on his two challenges, and Ranger Suarez lost one challenge. It is not even worth diving into that sample size to try and make a point about it, but I just thought it was funny that we’ve only got four instances of that happening to us.

So, what does this ABS data tell us? What are we able to deduce from the 1,000+ words that I just wrote and you just read?

Uh…………………..don’t let Ceddy and Willson touch their heads as often, I guess? Or let Adley and Caleb touch their heads more often? You tell me in the comments below.

One more thing before I sign off here: I’m in on ABS now. I think I’ve said that before on OTM, but I want to say it again. I was quite skeptical at first, but I like the current system in place as is. Limit the challenges, make it strategic in that sense, but keep this for the long haul. Let me know what you think about ‘em, but I’m a fan.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Rockies fans and fans across the country.

Kyle Freeland has been a member of the Colorado Rockies since he was drafted eighth overall in 2014 out of the University of Evansville. The Denver native made his MLB debut on April 7, 2017, against the Los Angeles Dodgers and has seen ups and downs during his tenure.

Freeland is in the final year of a five-year, $64.5 million contract and was just placed on the 15-day IL with cervical radiculopathy (a pinched nerve in his neck). It was unlikely that his 170-inning option was going to vest, but now that is all but impossible.

So our question to you is this: Where will Kyle Freeland pitch in 2027? Will he stay with the Rockies? Will he pitch with another MLB team? Might he go to an international league, such as the NPB or KBO? Or will he retire?

Let us know your thoughts!

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

The Royals have won eight in a row, and although its probably too late to make a real run, it can offer some hope for fans. There are, of course, plenty of reasons to be skeptical about the Royals’ second-half surge. There is nothing to play for, so these games can be downplayed a bit. But historically, teams that have gone from this bad in the first half to this good in the second half have often had something real going on. So I went looking at how often these dramatic turnarounds have translated into success the following season.

It may seem like the Royals frequently play well once they’re well out of the race and its meaningless, but that isn’t necessarily the case. David Lesky wrote about this popular presumption three years ago:

Since 1995, there have been 27 seasons with a first half and a second half. So I’m excluding 2020 here. Of those 27 seasons, the Royals in the second half have posted a winning percentage of .450+ and had a second-half winning percentage that was at least 40 points higher than the first half a total of SIX times. Two of those six were in 2013 and 2014 and they actually did mean something.

And to take that even further, this year’s Royals team is not just playing better than they did in the first half, they have improved more than almost any other team in club history. Only nine Royals teams had a losing record at the All-Star break, and winning record in second-half games. This year’s Royals have the third-best record in the second half out of all of those teams.

One team made the playoffs due to a hot second half – the odd split-half post-season of 1981, where the team was allowed to reset after a terrible start. Three teams made the playoffs the following season – 1979, 1984, and 2013. the two teams who couldn’t sustain their success are the 2021 team that regressed to lose 97 games the next year under Mike Matheny, and the 1996 team that lost 97 games the next year despite adding veterans Jeff King, Jay Bell, and Chili Davis.

How does this hot second half compare to all MLB teams? I looked at splits since 2000 – 30 teams before this year had a losing record in the first half, and went on to have a .560 winning percentage or better in the second half. The Royals and Red Sox are both achieving that mark this year.

Does the hot second half carry over into the next season? Of the 30 prior teams, 22 would have a winning record the next season, and 14 made the playoffs (the Guardians got better in the second half of 2025, we will see if they can make a run this year). Notably, the 2013 Royals went 43-49 in the first half, but played .614 ball in the second half. They made a late run and nearly made the playoffs with a young team that included Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, and Alex Gordon. The core of that team took the momentum into next season, winning their first pennant in 29 years.

As you can see, the Royals are on pace to become just the fourth team since 2000 to play worse than .400 in the first half, and better than .560 in the second half. The other three:

• The 2000 Astros had the “Killer B’s” (Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, and Lance Berkman) and a fearsome lineup, but one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball that caused them to go 30-57 in the first half. They underperformed their run differential that season, so their second half was likely them playing up to their true talent level. The next season they won 93 games and took the division with a much improved pitching staff.
• The 2002 Blue Jays fired manager Buck Martinez after a 20-33 start and didn’t really take off under new manager Carlos Tosca until late August. They won 25 of their final 36 games and finished 78-84. Carlos Delgado was one of the best hitters in baseball in the second half, and the pitching went from god awful (despite an All- Star season from Roy Halladay), to not-totally-terrible. The Jays carried over that hot month to win 86 games the next year, but missed the playoffs under Tosca.
• The 2012 Padres went on an eight-game winning streak in August (sound familiar?) and got a monster second-half from Chase Headley, who became an MVP candidate. Carlos Quentin was healthy in the second half and hit, and Yonder Alonso went on a late surge. The Padres couldn’t follow up the success however, they got off to another poor start in 2013 and finished 76-86.

All of this comes with some caveats. The Royals have played just 35 second-half games, still a bit of a small sample size. Just a week and a half ago, they had a losing record in the second half. They have gone on a hot stretch against three teams with losing records – the Angels, Athletics, and Tigers.

But if the Royals can continue to play this well, it could portend good things for next year. A lineup with Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Jac Caglianone, and Carter Jensen can be pretty dangerous. Noah Cameron may have figured something out. Michael Wacha is still steady. Randy Dobnak may be a real find. The bullpen….well, let’s address that next year.

None of this guarantees the Royals will suddenly become a contender in 2027. But the history suggests this kind of turnaround is worth paying attention to, and the Royals have enough young talent that there are reasons to believe this might not just be a hot streak.

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Cal Raleigh came alive last night to mash not one, not two, but THREE home runs. With the Philadelphia Phillies trotting out home run machine Aaron Nola, more fireworks are expected in Seattle tonight.

Josh Inglis is targeting the Over in that game as one of our three MLB expert picks for Tuesday, Aug. 25.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: PHI/SEA o7.5	+100
Jon Metler: LAD ML	-150
Dustin Saracini: TOR ML	-122

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Phillies vs. Mariners Over 7.5

Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket

This Over is trading at 50 cents on Polymarket but is much shorter at traditional books. Even then, it still isn't enough at this total. The fair price is 60 cents, and I wouldn't be surprised if this number moves to a flat 8 before first pitch.

This might be the best pitching matchup in the series to target the Over. Aaron Nola remains one of the hardest-hit pitchers in baseball and is coming off a 100-pitch outing, his highest workload in 21 starts. He's also allowed more home runs than any pitcher in baseball this season.

George Kirby hasn't been much better lately, allowing 19 runs over his last five starts while failing to record 16 outs in four of them.

Cal Raleigh has an offensive pulse after three dingers last night, and only the Red Sox have scored more runs in August than the Philadelphia Phillies. 

THE BAT is projecting 9.35 runs tonight in Seattle.

Todd Cordell has a full breakdown waiting with his Phillies vs. Mariners predictions.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Mariners.TV

Jon Metler's expert pick: Dodgers moneyline

Price: 60¢ (-150) at Polymarket

This series is worth keeping an eye on, with two of the National League's top teams potentially giving us a preview of a postseason matchup.

Bryce Elder gets the ball for the Atlanta Braves, and the matchup sets up well for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Elder relies heavily on his sinker at the bottom of the zone to generate ground balls and get outs, but that's a difficult pitch to live on against this lineup.

Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy are three of the most dangerous left-handed bats in baseball, and they all have swing paths designed to elevate pitches down in the zone. If Elder misses his spot and the sinker leaks over the inner half, the Dodgers can turn that mistake into damage.

The Dodgers are trading at 60 cents on Polymarket, but I price them closer to 63 cents, giving us a meaningful edge at the current number.

Check out Jason Wilson's Dodgers vs. Braves predictions for an opposing take.

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• How to watch: TBS

Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Blue Jays moneyline

Price: 55¢ (-122) at Polymarket

If the Toronto Blue Jays want to earn the second Wild Card — they're currently 2.0 games back — they need to beat teams like the Kansas City Royals.

While the Royals have won eight straight, the Jays are catching them with the struggling Seth Lugo on the bump tonight. The former ace has allowed five earned runs in three of his last four starts and is in the middle of the worst season of his career, sporting a career-high 5.18 xERA and .280 xBA.

He's simply not missing bats, and the Jays are about to take advantage at home.

I'd play this up to 58 cents at Polymarket, and ride with a bounce-back performance from Max Scherzer.

For a thorough look at this game, consult Dustin's complete Blue Jays vs. Royals predictions.

• Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Royals.TV, Sportsnet

More MLB best bets for today

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in White Sox fans and fans across the country.

It might not be the best time to ask this, as the White Sox have been just a 50/50 team so far in the second half, but this week we’re looking ahead to where the team finishes in the playoff race. As of now, the White Sox are sitting pretty, 2 ½ games up in the AL Central. And by virtue of the AL West being dog food, that first-place positioning means the White Sox are the AL’s No. 2 seed despite only the fourth-best record.

But, with 31 games remaining, will the White Sox be able to keep their loftly placement? Everything (but, realistically, getting hot and taking over the No. 1 seed) is on the table:

For most of this season, the only National Leaguers who seemed to be getting any play when it came to the Rookie of the Year talk were Cardinals second baseman JJ Wetherholt and Reds catcher Sal Stewart.

They were the ones who started hot, were being covered the most, and whose betting odds were far and away the best.

We wrote last week about why that was curious, as we detailed the serious candidacy of Mets right fielder Carson Benge, who has remained on fire in the week since. 

On Aug, 18, Benge's odds to win the award (via BetMGM) were +1400. Now, his odds are up to +650. He's still not being properly recognized, but that's an argument for another day.

Today's argument is for Mets right-hander Nolan McLean, who has surged into the conversation -- perhaps because it became apparent that two uncharacteristically bad starts three months ago shouldn't define his season.

McLean is still tinkering with his pitch mix while working to harness his otherworldly stuff. His arsenal includes three fastball variations, a curve, a changeup, and a sweeper, and he has fought himself at times this season as he works his way into games. 

As he decides which of his pitches to rely on most, McLean's two-seam and four-seam fastball usage has ticked up while he has used his sweeper much less often (throwing it 13.2 percent of the time this season after using it 25.7 percent of the time in 2025). And a look at his advanced stats via Baseball Savant show that McLean's fastball run value is in the 98th percentile, which is near the very top of the league. 

As part of the learning process, McLean has sometimes found himself on the ropes early before locking in and shutting down the opposition.

In his two most recent outings, McLean gave up just one run in 12.0 innings but worked around plenty of traffic on the bases -- due in large part to walking four batters in each start.

But when you put it all together, McLean has been nails. And he is in rarefied air when it comes to rookie starting pitchers.

Over his first 26 starts of the season, here's how the numbers look:

IP: 148.2
ERA: 3.21
WHIP: 1.14
K's: 168 (10.2 per nine)
H/9: 6.8
BAA: .208
HR/9: 0.9
BB/9: 3.5

McLean, who has moxie and a bulldog mentality to go along with his phenomenal stuff, has also been pitching deeper into games as the season has gone on, completing 6.0 innings or more in 11 of his last 12 starts. Overall this year, McLean has gone 6.0 innings or more 17 times.

What he's doing is impressive enough when you single him out as a rookie, but McLean's numbers also handle scrutiny when you remove him from that category.

Here's how McLean ranks in the NL when it comes to all qualified starting pitchers:

BAA: 3rd
H/9: 4th
K's: 6th
ERA: 7th
IP: 8th

The only starting pitchers in the NL who have a better BAA than McLean? Jacob Misiorowski and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

The only starting pitchers in the NL who have allowed fewer hits than McLean? Misiorowski, Yamamoto, Chris Sale, and Chase Burns.

The only starting pitchers in the NL who have struck out more batters than McLean? Misiorowski, Jesus Luzardo, Cristopher Sanchez, Paul Skenes, and Cade Cavalli.

So while McLean's Rookie of the Year case is strong, his case as simply one of the best and most dominant pitchers in the NL is also legitimate.

Given how Wetherholt and Stewart's candidacies have been viewed for a while, and factoring in how highly a large swath of the voters still value RBI (Stewart is currently leading the league with 98), it will likely be an uphill battle for either McLean or Benge to nab the award.

But both of them have a serious case over Stewart (who plays half of his games in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball) and Wetherholt (who has a .681 OPS since May 1).

For McLean to nab the award, he would probably have to be dominant from now through the end of the season, pushing his ERA under 3.00 as his strikeout totals continue to open eyes.

But when you consider that McLean has a 1.97 ERA in 59.1 innings over his last 10 starts dating back to June 30, him spinning a bunch of gems between now and when the regular season concludes on Sept. 27 wouldn't come as a surprise.

1913
The White Sox purchased the contract of a future Hall-of-Famer, pitcher Urban “Red” Faber, from Des Moines for $3,500. Faber would go on to win 254 games, with four seasons of 20 or more wins with Chicago. In the 1917 World Series win over the Giants Faber went 3-1, throwing 27 innings, with two complete games and a 2.33 ERA. 

1940
Playing in front of 70,740 fans in New York, the White Sox split a Sunday doubleheader at Yankee Stadium. Ted Lyons won the opener with a masterful, 1-0 shutout over Red Ruffing, the deciding run scored at the beginning of the ninth inning thanks to a Luke Appling single and Taffy Wright double. The White Sox were held to just five hits in the nightcap, losing, 3-1.

The crowd remains the sixth-biggest the White Sox have played in front of during the regular season.

Interestingly, the series finale that Tuesday drew only 6,942 fans.

1959
The White Sox acquired first baseman Ted Kluszewski from the Pirates for Harry Simpson and minor-leaguer Bob Sagers. “Big Klu” helped provide hitting down the stretch (.297 in 31 games) for the pennant, and hit .391 with three home runs and 10 RBIs in the six-game World Series loss to the Dodgers, with five of those RBIs coming in an 11-0 Game 1 rout.

1967
After criticizing A’s owner Charlie Finley, power hitter Ken “Hawk” Harrelson was waived by Oakland, making him a free agent — an utter rarity for the era.

With the White Sox in the middle of a four-team race for the pennant, later that same day White Sox GM Ed Short called Harrelsonin his Baltimore hotel room and offered him a one-time contract for $100,000. Short said it was a “take it or leave it” offer because he did not want to get into a bidding war. Manager Eddie Stanky also got on the phone, trying to talk Harrelson into joining the White Sox.

Harrelson turned down the offer, saying in his autobiography that he just wanted more time to consider his situation. He would later agree to a deal with the Red Sox for $118,000, officially signing on August 28. Boston would go on to win the pennant and lose the World Series in seven games to the Cardinals.

Harrelsoneventually made his way to the White Sox, joining their broadcasting team for the 1982 campaign and spending almost 40 straight years in some capacity on the South Side.

1968
The tensions surrounding the Democratic National Convention in Chicago spilled over to Comiskey Park. During a game against the Twins, supporters of Alabama Governor George Wallace and Minnesota Senator Eugene McCarthy got into an altercation in the lower left-field seats after some of the Wallace supporters were accused of shouting racial slurs at White Sox left fielder Tommy Davis. Security quickly separated the groups and averted a larger brawl. 

1981
White Sox pitcher Dennis Lamp carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning of a night game against the Brewers in Milwaukee. Robin Yount led off that inning with a bloop double to left, breaking it up. The Sox won the game, 5-1, as Lamp settled for a one-hitter, punching out six and walking one.

1986
Jack Perconte was a sold second baseman/utility player for six years before coming to the White Sox in the 1986 season. His debut with the team came on this night at Comiskey Park, in a 2-0 loss to the Royals.

It was a memorable one in one respect … the name on the back of his jersey was spelled wrong: “Preconte,” instead of the proper spelling!

Jack went 0-for-2 on the night with a walk. For the year, he hit .219 in 24 games for the White Sox before being released at season’s end. He played the full year of 1987 at Triple-A in the Dodgers system, but Perconte would never again play in the majors.

2013
It was a feat that hadn’t been achieved since 1947: Jordan Danks homered in a game his brother, John, won. John went six innings in a 5-2 win over the Texas Rangers to improve his record to 4-10 on the season. Younger by just 16 months, John cracked his third home run of the season, in the fourth inning of the win.

It wasn’t even set up to happen this way. Avisaíl García started the game in right field, but was injured crashing into the wall as he tracked Jeff Baker’s home run in the fourth inning. Jordan entered the game as a defensive replacement, and in the bottom half of the same frame, cracked a massive home run to right. In his next at-bat, Jordan singled, and finished the day 2-for-3 with bragging rights, for once, over his big brother.

2020
In surreal surroundings — no fans at Guaranteed Rate Field due to the pandemic — White Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito no-hit the Pirates, 4-0. Giolito allowed only one base runner, on a walk in the fourth inning. He struck out 13 hitters on 101 pitches, one of the most dominating performances in no-hitter history. 

Tim Anderson (seventh inning) and Adam Engel (two outs in the ninth inning) made terrific defensive plays to save the no-hitter.

It was the 19th no-hitter in franchise history, making the White Sox the all-time American League leader in that category.

2022
Over the decades the most incredible, strange, bizarre things seem to happen to the White Sox in Baltimore. Case in point once again, a night game in Baltimore on this date.

The Sox led the Orioles, 3-2, with two out and the bases empty in the last of the ninth inning. Sox closer Liam Hendriks was working on his 20th consecutive save. Baltimore outfielder Kyle Stowers sliced a fly ball that drifted into foul ground in left field, apparently ending the game.

White Sox outfielder Adam Engel ran to the area, put his glove up … and dropped the ball.

The error gave Stowers a second chance, and he promptly hammered a flat curve from Hendriks into the seats for a game-tying home run. Baltimore wound up winning the game, 4-3, in 11 innings.  

2024
A 9-4 loss to the Tigers at Guaranteed Rate Field gave the White Sox 100 losses for the 2024 campaign. It marked the first time in franchise history the Sox lost 100 or more games in consecutive seasons. In 2023, the Sox lost 101 games.

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With all 30 teams on the schedule today, that's a big crop of pitchers to dig into for MLB player props and punchouts, and it's been a great run in August to date.

Jackson Jobe has a growing leash that might not be priced into his short strikeout prop, Tyler Glasnow is coming back from a lengthy injury with plenty of paths for his plus-money Under, and Aaron Nola is still a pitcher to fade every five days.

These are my favorite pitcher and strikeout props for Tuesday, Aug. 25.

Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today

Player	Pick	Odds
Jackson Jobe	Over 3.5 strikeouts	+104
Tyler Glasnow	Under 5.5 strikeouts	+124
Aaron Nola	Under 17.5 outs	+100

Strikeout prop: Jackson Jobe Over 3.5 strikeouts (+104)

Jackson Jobe is getting a longer leash after three starts, going from 71 to 74 to 86 pitches in that stretch. He could push 90 pitches today, and his 15.5-out market is juiced to the Over, suggesting more than 15 outs is expected at home against the Rays.

He isn't a K/inning guy, but getting to four punchouts at plus money isn't a big ask. He projects for 87 pitches and 3.97 strikeouts today, putting the fair price around -135. He's hit this Over in two of his three starts and is backed by a bullpen with little trust and the fifth-worst FIP in August, which only helps his leash.

The projections already like the Over, and that's based on a pitch count that still has room to climb today. His Over is making the MLB picks page.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Detroit SportsNet, Rays.TV

Strikeout prop: Tyler Glasnow Under 5.5 strikeouts (+124)

This is a big price for a pitcher who hasn't pitched in the MLB in four months on a roster that is handling its pitching staff very carefully with the postseason in sight.

Tyler Glasnow is coming off the IL with a back injury that has sidelined him since early May. He built up to 77 pitches in his rehab outings, but the Dodgers have no reason to push the right-hander today, making the projected 87-pitch workload feel aggressive. The Under is already showing value at this number.

Covers' MLB prop projections have Glasnow at 5.51 Ks on 87 pitches, which feels high to me. The Dodgers were off yesterday, so the bullpen is fully rested and ready to pick up the slack. The fair price based on those projections is around -115.

Glasnow is an elite pitcher, but this is the spot to fade him. I see a shorter leash and fewer outs than the market is pricing in.

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: BravesVision, SportsNet LA

Pitcher outs prop: Aaron Nola Under 17.5 outs (+100)

Aaron Nola hasn't pitched terribly of late, but this is still a pitcher on the downswing of his career who remains one of the hardest-hit pitchers in baseball. Only nine other MLB starters have a worse BlastContact% than the Philadelphia right-hander.

Nola is also coming off a 100-pitch outing, something he hadn't done in 20 straight starts. That extra workload could negatively affect his efficiency today, and it's not like he has been regularly getting to 18 outs. He's 4-11 O/U on this number across his last 15 starts.

It's a road start against a Mariners team that finally got Cal Raleigh going, while the Phillies have all three of their left-handed reliever options available today. Fading Nola is a no-doubt look.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Mariners.TV, NBCSP

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A full slate blesses us today, with matchups kicking off later tonight.

Here are my MLB moneyline predictions for tonight's slate, which include backing a lot of pricey favorites on Tuesday, Aug. 25

Before we dive in, be sure to check out our MLB picks to see where our experts see value!

MLB moneyline picks for August 25

Matchup	Pick
TB at DET	-126
BOS at MIA	-155
COL at WSH	-148
HOU at NYY	-142
KC at TOR	+114
MIL at NYM	-155
LAD at ATL	-155
TEX at CWS	+140
BAL at STL	-126
CLE at LAA	+129
CHC at ARI	+101
PIT at SD	-121
MIN at ATH	+134
PHI at SEA	-103
CIN at SF	-107

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 8-25.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for August 25

Rays vs. Tigers: Rays (-126)

Rays win probability: 55%

No chance I take a risk backing the Detroit Tigers at plus money at home. Their bats are frozen, sporting a 63 wRC+ over their last six games.

Meanwhile, right-hander Jackson Jobe has been shaky since returning, posting a 5.49 xERA while allowing a 12% barrel rate to opposing hitters.

Ian Seymour has been solid over his last five starts, making the Tampa Bay Rays the more trustworthy option in this matchup.

Red Sox vs. Marlins: Red Sox (-155)

Red Sox win probability: 60%

Sox or nothing here. Pay the juice; Payton Tolle is good for it, and so should the Boston Red Sox bats. 

One of the most exciting under-the-radar pitchers this season has easily been the Boston southpaw, who has a 2.58 xERA and 1.09 WHIP on the year.

Over the BoSox's last 12 games, their bats have started to heat back up, owning a 131 wRC+, .363 wOBA and .828 OPS. On the other side, the Miami Marlins' bats have gone cold — owning a 92 wRC+, .301 wOBA and .657 OPS over their last six. 

Rockies vs. Nationals: Nationals (-148)

Nationals win probability: 58%

Keep the favorite leans rolling, as the Washington Nationals are the side worth being on this evening.

Sure, both lineups have been pretty chilly as of late, but Washington has not been striking out and has been drawing a ton of walks. Back the lineup that has been getting on base more over their last six games.

Plus, Andrew Alvarez has been very solid in his last five starts, posting a 2.36 ERA and 1.01 WHIP while limiting hard-hit and barreled balls.

Astros vs. Yankees: Yankees (-142)

Yankees win probability: 58%

Both lineups have been cold over the last month, but the New York Yankees' wRC+ has finally crept above triple digits for the first time in over two months. They are now generating more hard-hit balls and winning the games they should.

Even with Will Warren's recent struggles, the Yanks are the side to be on with how cold the Houston Astros' bats have been.

Royals vs. Blue Jays: Royals (+114)

Royals win probability: 46%

Such a tough spot with how well Max Scherzer has been in his most recent starts. The future Hall of Fame right-hander owns a 3.04 xERA and 1.26 WHIP while limiting hard-hit and barreled balls over his last three starts. On the other side, Seth Lugo has posted similar numbers in his most recent outings.

Both offenses have been on a tear, so taking the underdog against a guy going toe-to-toe with Father Time is the move here.

Brewers vs. Mets: Brewers (-155)

Brewers win probability: 60%

Yes, another favorite lean.

It is extremely tough to look at the Milwaukee Brewers' numbers over their last six games and ignore their 144 wRC+, .377 wOBA, and .863 OPS. Meanwhile, the New York Mets have posted just a 104 wRC+, .315 wOBA, and .175 ISO over that same stretch.

Milwaukee left-hander Kyle Harrison has some strong underlying metrics across his last five starts, making him a very trustworthy arm this evening.

Dodgers vs. Braves: Dodgers (-155)

Dodgers win probability: 60%

I'm not sure how we can even trust the Atlanta Braves when their team has been a complete corpse for weeks. Atlanta has a 91 wRC+, .300 wOBA, and .680 OPS over its last 21 games. The Braves are also generating just a 4% barrel rate over their last six games.

We know what the Dodgers are capable of. Pay the juice. (Again).

Rangers vs. White Sox: White Sox (+140)

White Sox win probability: 48%

After getting blown out, the Chicago White Sox will look to bounce back against Jacob deGrom, who has been allowing a concerning amount of hard contact in his most recent starts.

Across the veteran's last three outings, he is allowing a 56% hard-hit rate and 12% barrel rate to opposing hitters.

The White Sox are always due to boom, and they have plenty of bats capable of producing hard contact. At +140 to bounce back, this price is worth taking.

Orioles vs. Cardinals: Cardinals (-126)

Cardinals win probability: 54%

Real simple, Chris Bassitt has been horrible in his most recent outings and on the road this season. The veteran right-hander owns a 7.28 ERA and 1.96 WHIP on the road — with just a 10.96% strikeout rate and 11.64% walk rate.

St. Louis Cardinals southpaw Matthew Liberatore has struggled a bit in his last few starts, but his underlying numbers point toward improvement, as he sports a 2.94 xERA over his last five starts.

With the Baltimore Orioles' bats starting to cool off, the Cardinals seem to be in a better spot this evening.

Guardians vs. Angels: Angels (+129)

Angels win probability: 43%

Getting a little frisky here backing a lineup that has been lifeless for over a month, but they send out right-hander Walbert Urena, who has been very solid for the Los Angeles Angels this season.

Over his last five starts, Urena owns a 2.84 ERA and 1.03 WHIP while limiting hard-hit and barreled balls.

Gavin Williams has been a strikeout machine as of late, but he does own a sub-1.50 WHIP over his last three starts while allowing a barrel rate over 13%.

Cubs vs. Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks (+101)

Diamondbacks win probability: 49%

I am snagging the Arizona Diamondbacks as a home underdog while Brandon Pfaadt is playing some of his best ball of the season in his most recent starts. 

Yes, the Chicago Cubs have been on a complete tear over the last few weeks. However, the Diamondbacks have been hitting the ball very well too. Over their last 12 games, they own a 117 wRC+, .786 OPS, and .342 wOBA.

Trust Pfaadt!

Pirates vs. Padres: Padres (-121)

Padres win probability: 54%

Quick and simple, there is no reason to back the Pittsburgh Pirates with Paul Skenes on the mound until further notice. He has completely fallen off this season and cannot be trusted right now. 

The Pirates star has a 6.56 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, allowing 44.64% hard hit and 12.07% barrel rate in his last five starts.

Twins vs. Athletics: Athletics (+134)

Athletics win probability: 42%

The desire to trust Taj Bradley is there, but not in Sacramento, where the weather is always great for hitting. Plus, Bradley is a heavy fastball pitcher who gives up a ton of hard-hit balls.

He does have great underlying metrics over his last five outings, but he still owns a near-5.00 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over his last five starts.

The Athletics have a 118 wRC+, .339 wOBA, and .761 OPS over their last 12 games. Tonight, they should get on top of everything Bradley puts over the plate.

Phillies vs. Mariners: Phillies (-103)

Phillies win probability: 50%

After getting completely dominated, the Philadelphia Phillies will look to return the favor this evening as they draw struggling right-hander George Kirby. The Seattle Mariners starter owns an 8.31 ERA and 2.15 WHIP over his last three starts.

Meanwhile, Aaron Nola has been very sturdy in his most recent outings, sporting a 2.51 ERA across his last five starts.

The Phillies should even the series this evening.

Reds vs. Giants: Giants (-107)

Giants win probability: 51%

Death. Taxes. Never trust the Cincinnati Reds.

Brady Singer takes the mound this evening for Cincinnati, owning a 5.00 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and 12.7% barrel rate over his last three outings.

The Giants send out Adrian Houser, who has been very consistent as of late, posting a sub-1.00 ERA and 1.05 WHIP while limiting barreled balls over his last five starts.

Both lineups are frozen, so back the better pitcher in the matchup. Go Giants.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Phillies have been hot. Winners of nine of their last ten, they have vaulted themselves back into the National League East race to at least make things interesting there while also tightening their grip on a wild card position. There is still plenty of time to go in the season and a lot can still happen, but their recent play has at least made it plausible that they can still be playing baseball once the calendar flips to October.

What has been interesting of late has been that this recent brand of winning baseball has been led not by the bedrock of their roster construction plan, the starting rotation, but by a lineup that has suddenly become deep and dangerous. Once a group that has been allergic to getting on base with any kind of regularity, they have now shown that they can do so at any point in the game. Since the All-Star break, as a team, they are fifth in the game with a .340 on base percentage, sixth in batting average with a .261 mark and have the fourth best strikeout rate with an 18.9% mark. They aren’t striking out as much, they are hitting the baseball and they are getting on base.

Weird how that can actually work, right?

That begs the question though: is this just a hot streak, or a legitimate change that can be depended on once the chips are down?

We all know that this type of play is all well and good for the regular season as it lets them be able to even entertain the thought of playing in October, but the real test will come once the quality of pitching is at its peak. When they are facing the best pitching staffs in the game when the playoffs are on the line, will this approach continue to aid their winning baseball games?

What say you?

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Phillies fans and fans across the country.

There is a certain type of guy that just sticks around. For about a half-decade, Adam Warren was just that for the New York Yankees. That doesn’t just happen either, as highly competent pitching has a way of sticking around, and for a while, Warren was a certified Guy On The Team. In three different stints in New York, Warren was often very effective on the mound, and an important piece in the relief corps in parts of six seasons.

On his 39th birthday, let’s take a look at the career of pitcher who did plenty of dirty work, and did so well enough to stick around longer than most.

Adam Warren
Born: August 25, 191987 (Birmingham, AL)
Yankees Tenure: 2012-15, 2016-18

After playing his high school and college baseball in North Carolina, Adam Warren was initially drafted in the 36th round of the 2008 draft, before finding a better spot in the ‘09 draft, when the Yankees scooped him up in the fourth round.

Warren spent three seasons climbing the ranks in the Yankees’ minor leagues, working his way up to a full season in Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in 2011. In June of 2012, the right-hander made his Major League debut, in what turned out to be a real clunker against the White Sox. Warren started the game and surrendered six runs on eight hits across just 2.1 innings. It was a rough welcome to the bigs, and was his only appearance in 2012, but he’d obviously make a return.

When the 2013 season rolled around, Warren found a much better spot for himself, and played a significant role for the Yanks that season. Primarily working out of the ‘pen, starting just two of his 34 games, the then-25-year-old managed a solid 3.39 ERA in 77 innings of work. Working multiple innings in many of his outings, Warren provided some real stability in a sometimes challenging role. His importance that season began a multi-year run of Warren’s presence in the Bronx.

In 2014, the righty was even better in 78.2 innings, posting a sub-3 ERA and improved strikeout and walk rates in a new career-high work load. A season later, he set a new high-water mark for himself. In a new-found role, spot starting and still often pitching in relief, Warren pitched in 43 games, which included 17 starts, resulting in a significant career-high in innings with 131.1. Being asked to wear several different hats on the mound, Warren didn’t blink an eye, maintaining his same solid production in his most prevalent year yet.

After the 2015 season ended, the Yankees capitalized on Warren’s value at the time by trading him to the Cubs in the deal that brought Starlin Castro the New York. After a rough half-season in Chicago, he was actually shipped back to the Yankees, along with Gleyber Torres, when the Cubs acquired Aroldis Chapman. He pitched much better in the second half once he returned to the Yankees, and rolled that performance right into another excellent season in 2017.

That year, he posted a career-low 2.35 ERA in his 46 appearances, in a role that once again saw him recording more than three outs fairly often. Warren also got some work in the exciting 2017 postseason run, where he allowed a run in 4.1 innings of work, including 3.1 scoreless frames in the ALCS against the Astros.

Despite his continued good work out of the bullpen, he was shipped out once again, this time in a deal that sent him to Seattle. After the 2018 season, Warren inked a deal with the Padres, which would turn out to be his final stop in an eight year Major League career.

Between 2019 and ‘20, Warren actually re-signed with the Yankees a couple of times, but was unable to climb his way back to the big club. In just shy of 500 Major League innings, across eight seasons, Warren managed a solid 6.6 bWAR and a 117 ERA+ for his career. Always a valuable long reliever, and at times a vital part of the bullpen, Warren certainly made a mark with the Yankees in his time there, while also being part of several high-level trades.

Here’s to a happy 39th for the former bullpen stalwart!