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The Pirates went from one of the worst offenses in the game last year to having the most runs scored at the All-Star break. That’s a massive upgrade from last year and a big reason because of that is the power.

In 2025 Pittsburgh finished last in numerous categories, including in runs scored (583), RBI (561), home runs (117), slugging percentage (.350) and OPS (.655). 

A lot of those numbers have been increased this year, like home runs with 125. They rank amongst the best in the other categories, such as first in RBI and hits. The Bucs are also second in OPS and third in slugging percentage.

Pittsburgh already having eight more home runs than they did last year is a big reason why they are 50-47 and in the wild card playoff race. The Pirates are able to help out their pitching depth this year which is something they were not able to do last year.

The Pirates adding players like Brandon Lowe and Ryan O’hearn has been a huge reason as to why their offense has been such an improvement. Lowe leads the team with home runs (20) and in RBIs (64). While O’hearn has 16 home runs and 63 RBIs which are both second on the team.

The Pirates become just the second team in league history that went from scoring the least amount runs in one season and then leading the league in runs the following season. The St. Louis Cardinals did so, going from worst in 1986 to first in 1987, where they made the World Series.

What has made this first half really impressive is that the Pirates are putting up these numbers with some important injuries. The players being center fielder Oneil Cruz, first baseman Spencer Horwitz, rookie shortstop Konnor Griffin and catcher Endy Rodrguez, all of whom have been great themselves.

Rookie Esmerlyn Valdez has been helping the offense a lot with 10 home runs in 27 games. Other players have stepped up as well, making this a top and formidable lineup in baseball.

If the Bucs want to stay in the race and snap their decade long playoff drought, the offense will need to continue to keep that pace. 

All-Star week in Philadelphia has come and gone, which means it’s time to prepare for the unofficial second half of the season. The Phillies had a good first half considering they experienced a ten-game losing streak and fired their manager in April. They come into their second half opening series with the New York Mets two games behind the Atlanta Braves in the National League East with a record of 54-43. They currently occupy the second NL Wild Card spot and have a three-game lead for a spot in the postseason field. There is work to be done, but the Phillies have placed themselves right in the thick of the NL postseason picture.

That doesn’t mean there aren’t glaring weaknesses in this Phillies team though. The upcoming trade deadline will be the biggest chance to improve the roster, but thanks to the Phillies limited trade capital, they will also have to look inward for improvements. There’s no shortage of underperformers on the roster, but these are three that could make a real impact if they find a way to improve.

Trea Turner

Turner was one of the Phillies best players in 2025 when he won the batting title and dramatically improved his defense resulting in a 5.4 WAR season. He has regressed heavily in each aspect, as he’s hitting .236 and has the fifth most errors (12) of any shortstop in baseball which has resulted in a negative WAR total. His strikeout rate has spiked, up to 22.2% from 16.7% last season. His chase rate is back up in conjunction with that, up over 35% after cutting it down to 31.2% last season.

Defensively, Turner has lost all of the gains he made last season. He already has more errors than he had all of last season (8) and is on pace to come close to his brutal 2023 season when he led the majors with 23 errors. It’s even worse if you go by defensive metrics, as his -9 defensive runs saved are tied for second worst in baseball and his -6 defensive run value is fourth worst.

The good news is that Turner has begun to show a pulse offensively for the better part of the last month. Since June 15th, Turner is hitting .286 with a .759 OPS across 106 plate appearances. He started off July well but is currently 1 for his last 13 entering the break. The Phillies need Turner to rediscover some of what made him a batting champion in 2025, because it’s beginning to look like his strong defensive season last year may be an aberration.

José Alvarado

Alvarado looked to be having a renaissance in 2025 before a PED suspension and injuries completely derailed his season. The Phillies elected to pick up his club option for 2026 anyway, believing that he would rebound after a full offseason reset. That decision is not looking wise, as Alvarado is in the midst of the worst season of his career with a 6.82 ERA through 39 games. Opponents are currently slashing .307/.394/.464 against Alvarado. Yordan Alvarez and Yandy Díaz are the only qualified hitters with at least that slash line overall this season.

Despite a walk rate of 8.7% that is right around league average, Alvarado has struggled to throw strikes consistently. The in-zone rates of his two best pitches in the sinker and cutter are both down from his previous few seasons, with the sinker seeing a dramatic drop from three straight seasons over 60% to 53.3% in 2026. Opponents are also not swinging and missing at the cutter at the same rate as they have in years past while they are demolishing the sinker to the tune of a .342 AVG and .481 SLG.

However, there are signs that at least some of Alvarado’s struggles have been due to bad luck and, perhaps more astutely, poor defense. His 11.7 hits per nine is tied for the worst among all relievers with at least 30 IP and it would be the second worst among all pitchers if Alvarado qualified. His .440 batting average on balls in play is the highest in baseball and would be by far the highest in MLB history for a full season, surpassing the .364 BABIP Kevin Gausman posted in 2022. Alvarado’s FIP of 3.25 being almost half of his 6.82 ERA is the biggest evidence that he’s been victimized by the Phillies poor infield defense.

Where the ball goes when hitters make contact is largely outside of his control, but Alvarado can still control the part of his struggles that includes throwing more strikes and limiting contact. He has roughly over two weeks to find some way to improve before the Phillies will be forced to acquire a different left-handed reliever at the deadline.

Aaron Nola

This may seem to be the most obvious one of all and yet the one most people believe has the least chance of actually happening. Nevertheless, the Phillies are in desperate need of back of the rotation pitching and Aaron Nola isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, so the easiest path forward would be for Nola to occupy that role. It is much easier said than done of course, as Nola is having yet another nightmare season with a 3-6 record and a 5.76 ERA through 19 starts. His 20 home runs allowed are the third most in baseball despite Nola only logging 97 innings pitched. For context, Bert Blyleven holds the dubious MLB record of allowing the most home runs in a season with 50, but he did it in 271.2 innings. Nola is currently on pace to approach that despite being projected to throw under 200 innings. All of this has been the continuation of a trend of him being one of the worst qualified starting pitchers in baseball.

Nola has shown some signs recently that he may have gained some sort of footing, as in his last two starts, he’s thrown 5 IP with 2 runs and 7 IP with 3 runs allowed. Of course, those two starts were following one of the worst starts of Nola’s career when he blew a 5-0 lead and allowed 8 runs in 4.1 IP. The Phillies don’t need Nola to be an ace or even a mid-rotation starter at this point. What they need him to be is an innings eater that keeps you in games and saves the bullpen. The contract is likely going to go down as a net negative, but that doesn’t mean that the Phillies and Nola can’t salvage some value out of it.

The Phillies are 40-14 in games started by Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler, and Jesús Luzardo. They are 14-29 in games started by anyone else, including 9-10 in games started by Nola. They are 5-21 in games started by the fifth spot in the rotation that has been a smorgasbord of Andrew Painter, Taijuan Walker, Alan Rangel, and openers. Nola is no longer the same pitcher he was when he signed his seven year, $112M contract and is certainly no longer the pitcher that placed in the top 11 of Cy Young voting four times. But it would be a boon to the Phillies if he can stabilize himself as a quality back of the rotation starter as it would remove one of the question marks from the rotation.

Sitting in position for a postseason spot, the Tampa Bay Rays will look to supplement their roster at the trade deadline. Of course, they’ll do some buying and selling, but at the major league level they will primarily be buyers. The moves they make will be determined by a few key things early this month.

What does OF Jake Fraley look like in his return from the IL?

Fraley is a steady veteran who owns a career 110 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. While this isn’t an outlier level of production, it does represent a meaningful improvement over Victor Mesa Jr. (career 83 wRC+ vs RHP) and Chandler Simpson (career 94 wRC+ vs RHP). However, his lengthy injury history makes it difficult to count on that production over the final two months – especially when considering he was recently removed from his rehab assignment.

Should Fraley give the Rays a reason to explore other left-handed outfield options, they would first look internally. Jacob Melton was a major acquisition this winter, but unfortunately he got hurt in late April and missed a large chunk of the season. He’s unproven at the major league level so there’s some risk. However, his near 70-grade power, plus speed, and plus defense at all three outfield spots gives him significant upside. Melton’s underlying data have taken a real step forwards this season so he may be ready for a role in the majors.

If the Rays decide to take a conservative approach and keep Melton in AAA, there are plenty of affordable left-handed outfielders. I’ve already written about Lars Nootbaar, but here are a couple more names:

• MIN OF Matt Wallner (career 137 wRC+ vs RHP); recent struggles may have lowered the acquisiton cost
• COL OF Troy Johnston (career 137 wRC+ vs RHP); plus hitter but comes with defensive questions
• MIN INF/OF Kody Clemens (career 96 wRC+ vs RHP); 117 wRC+ against righties in his last 500 PAs

What does 2B Gavin Lux look like in his return from the IL?

Lux is feeling the best he has felt all year and is rehabbing in Durham. Similar to Fraley, Lux brings a steady veteran presence with him to a lineup. His 109 wRC+ vs righties for his career represents a real upgrade over what Palacios (92 wRC+ vs RHP) and Williamson (82 wRC+ vs RHP) are currently providing. I think Williamson’s best baseball is still ahead of him and moving him to short-side platoon work at 2B and back-up duties at SS could help him get into more optimal match-ups that improve his production.

As with Fraley, there’s a chance that Lux doesn’t get healthy or his production isn’t what the Rays need it to be. In that case, there aren’t really any internal candidates to come in and hold down bulk platoon work at 2B. Brayden Taylor could be that guy if he wasn’t still in AA. His performance this year has restored his prospect status following a swing adjustment late last season, but there’s a lot of risk in bringing him up to play most days without him having any AAA experience.

It looks like the Rays would explore an external candidate if Lux is unable to regain his form. Luis Arraez would be an ideal acquisition given his track record (126 wRC+ against RHP for his career), and his defensive improvements that have allowed him to play a solid 2B. Some other names they could explore are:

• PIT 2B Brandon Lowe (career 134 wRC+ vs RHP); proven track record, but comes with injury risk
• MIN INF/OF Kody Clemens (career 96 wRC+ vs RHP); 117 wRC+ against righties in his last 500 PAs
• ATH INF/OF Zack Gelof (career 114 wRC+ vs RHP); reverse splits, but he’s currently injured

How will starter workloads be managed?

The Rays have several members of their rotation who will have varying degrees of innings limits. Nick Martinez is the only starter likely to reach 170-180 innings this season.

There are a couple internal options in AAA who could come up and cover innings in spot starts or bulk roles out of the bullpen:

• Mason Englert; being stretched out and working as a starter after working in the bullpen for his ML career
• Ty Johnson; throws only two pitches, but could be reliable as a bulk pitcher or multi-inning reliever
• Michael Forret; strike throwing is inconsistent, but could be reliable as a bulk pitcher or multi-inning reliever
• Joe Boyle; working in the bullpen for the rest of the season, could be impactful as a multi-inning reliever
• Michael Grove; long-term plan is for him to start, but he could be effective in a multi-inning role for now

Brody Hopkins is still learning to pitch with the AAA baseball and he underwent some mechanical changes that will take time to get used to so I don’t anticipate him providing many meaningful innings in the majors this season.

The Rays don’t have enough impact pitching ready to contribute in the majors this season, so they’ll likely explore an external addition. I’ve already written about Tarik Skubal, Joe Ryan, and Freddy Peralta. All three have strong track records and could help the Rays in the top half of their rotation. Given the way baseballs are flying off the bat similar to 2019, a groundball pitcher like Sandy Alcantara could also be a good fit if the Marlins fall out of contention in the next few weeks. Jose Soriano, Sonny Gray, and Landon Roupp also fit this mold. The biggest barrier to acquiring a high-end starter at the deadline will certainly be the cost. The Rays have the prospect capital to afford a big name to add to their rotation without depleting their farm system.

Which Rule 5 eligible prospects will need protection?

No doubt the Rays will be looking to get ahead of their annual Rule 5 crunch this summer. They already dealt Ty Cummings for Casey Legumina, but they still have over 50 players who will be Rule 5 eligible. Not all of them will need protection, but some of the names in the upper levels include:

• C Tatem Levins
• 1B Tre’ Morgan
• INF Cooper Kinney
• OF Homer Bush Jr.
• RHP Brody Hopkins
• RHP Ty Johnson
• RHP Michael Forret
• RHP Owen Wild
• DH/1B Xavier Isaac
• INF Brayden Taylor
• RHP Jackson Baumeister
• RHP Santiago Suarez
• RHP Gary Gill Hill
• RHP TJ Nichols

There’s a chance that the Rule 5 Draft may not happen given the expiring CBA after this season, and that would certainly benefit the Rays because then they wouldn’t have to make a decision on these players. However, it would still be wise to look to move some of these prospects as part of a deal for help in the majors or for lower level prospects – like when Duncan Davitt and Ben Peoples were part of the package for Adrian Houser last season. The Rays could also look to move some of these Rule 5 eligible guys for a prospect in the lower minors – like when they traded Tobias Myers for Junior Caminero a few years ago.

The Rays’ deadline priorities will ultimately depend less on what other clubs make available than on the health of Fraley and Lux over the next few weeks. If both return and perform, Tampa Bay can focus almost entirely on adding rotation help and consolidating their minor league rosters ahead of a potential Rule 5 crunch. If either Fraley or Lux struggles/suffers another setback, the front office has enough prospect capital to address those needs externally while still pursuing an impact starter.

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This might be the most overanalyzed game of the MLB season, but that's not stopping me from betting on dingers with Christian Scott and Aaron Nola on the mound. Home runs and MLB player props are all live Thursday night on the standalone game.

Despite one of the shorter prices on the board, Juan Soto is still projecting +EV to go deep vs. Aaron Nola, who's one of the best home run matchups in baseball. On the other side, lefty bats have the edge vs. Christian Scott, and Brandon Marsh at +400 or better is making the card.

These are my favorite home run predictions for Thursday, July 16.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Juan Soto	+234
Brandon Marsh	+433
💲Today's HR parlay	+1400

Mets home run pick: Juan Soto (+234)

I don't venture into this price range too often, but on a smaller card, with a +EV number and a ton of familiarity in the matchup, Juan Soto is making the card today.

He projects for nearly the same home run probability as Kyle Schwarber, but at a price roughly 50 points longer, according to Covers projections powered by THE BAT.

Soto has also seen plenty of Aaron Nola over his career, facing him 42 times and taking him deep five times. One homer every eight at-bats is an elite home run rate against any pitcher.

Nola has been a punching bag for hitters this season, ranking second-worst among qualified starters in HR/9, fourth-worst in HR/FB rate, and fourth-worst in BlastContact%. Since the start of 2024, left-handed hitters have accounted for 65% of the home runs he's allowed.

I'm playing this down to +200.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ESPN

Phillies home run pick: Brandon Marsh (+433)

Lefties have done the most damage against Christian Scott, which gives us plenty of Phillies bats to choose from. For the price, it's tough to ignore Brandon Marsh at +400 or better. Kyle Schwarber's and Bryce Harper's numbers have been bet down too far, while left-handed hitters have accounted for 11 of Scott's 15 home runs allowed.

Marsh is a .300 hitter who was batting .335 to begin June. His BlastContact% sits just behind the big boppers in Harper and Schwarber, and he's not a guy looking to take a free pass with just a 5.2% walk rate. When he steps into the box, he's swinging.

He faced Scott back in late June, and his only ball in play was a hard-hit single. Half of the balls put in play against Scott that day were hit at 95 mph or harder.

Marsh has treated me well all season, and this is the price at which I'm jumping back in while everyone else is piling onto Schwarber and Harper.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ESPN

Today’s HR parlay

Juan Soto	Bet Now +1400
Brandon Marsh

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The St. Louis Cardinals had plenty to be excited about over the past week or so. With JJ Wetherholt inking an extension and Jordan Walker making history, the draft almost took a back seat to everything else over the All-Star break. That could have been the case if it were not for the Cardinals receiving rave reviews from experts everywhere for Chaim Bloom and Randy Flores’ work on the 2026 MLB Draft.

With the draft complete and the signing period underway, the Cardinals began opening up roster spots and moving people around to different levels. I will do my best to summarize them below, but I wanted to shout out MILBToday.com where I have been getting a lot of my St. Louis system trends and stats. Take a look over there and give a follow on Twitter if you like what the site does.

Chase Davis and Jurrangelo Cijntje promoted, others released amid organization roster shuffle

In good news, Chase Davis was activated and promoted to Triple-A Memphis as the former first rounder looks to get back on the organization’s radar. He is joined by Jurrangelo Cijntje, who the Cardinals have been more aggressive with promoting that most of their other pitching prospects. These spots came to be vacant after multiple releases and opt outs were triggered among the Memphis roster. Mason Molina has also steamrolled his way into Memphis and is definitely causing some intrigue for me.

Doubleheader savior Bruce Zimmerman officially elected free agency and Scott Blewett is planning to exercise his opt-out clause. Zimmerman was an expected loss after his solid season debut, but losing Blewett could be a bummer for a bullpen that will be undergoing some shuffling in the next couple weeks. He was putting together a solid season but the other pitching prospects around the veteran and the Cardinals needing roster spots, Blewett will look to catch on elsewhere.

Also getting removed from the roster was Bligh Madris, who will be going to the KBO, Jeremy Rivas, Jason Savacool, and feel-good outfielder Matt Koperniak who were all released from Memphis. So far, Brody Moore has been called up to fill one of those spots but other promotions are likely to follow.

Elsewhere, Zach Levenson is back in Springfield and maybe most excitingly, Brandon Clarke is in the FSL getting some mound work in. Clarke underwent surgery for a shoulder aneurysm early in the year and was left without a clear timetable, so this news is definitely welcomed. On the rehab front, it appears that Ixan Henderson is also back on the bump and will hopefully build off his great 2025 season when he is back to full health.

There may be plenty more that I missed or that will be coming up shortly, so feel free to drop in the comments and let us know! Also, feel free to add your exciting second half prospects to watch!

Thanks as always!

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The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies kick off the second half of the season tonight, and I've found value in the MLB player props. 

Tonight's Mets vs. Phillies props are highlighted by J.T. Realmuto, Juan Soto, and Bryson Stott. 

Read more in our Mets vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, July 16, and don't miss first pitch at 6:10 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Mets vs Phillies props for July 16

Pick	Odds
J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 total bases	+155
Juan Soto to hit a home run	+220
Bryson Stott Over 0.5 singles	-120

Mets vs Phillies player prop picks

J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 total bases (+155)

J.T. Realmuto may be hitting just .250 over his last six games, but he's showcasing gap-to-gap power. The catcher has a .250 ISO during that span, and a 42.9% hard-hit rate.

Realmuto has cashed the Over in total bases in three of his last four contests, and he has multi-base hits in back-to-back games.

New York Mets starter Christian Scott has a 4.90 FIP over the last month, and he's allowed a 46.7% hard-hit rate over his last three outings. He's also given up 2.03 HR/9 over that span. 

I'll play this pick up to +100. 

Juan Soto to hit a home run (+220)

I don't like to lean into the matchup too much, but it's hard to ignore here.

Juan Soto has faced Aaron Nola 45 times and recorded 12 hits. Five of those hits have been home runs, so he's consistently shown power against Nola. 

The right-hander is also struggling to limit the long ball. Over the last month, Nola has allowed 2.61 HR/9 while posting a 5.65 FIP. 

Soto owns a .302 ISO over the last two weeks, and he's gone deep four times in his last 13 games while posting an impressive 16.7% barrel rate. If Nola continues to make mistakes, Soto could very well punish him. 

I'll play this pick up to +200. 

Bryson Stott Over 0.5 singles (-120)

Bryson Stott is a base-knock type of hitter, and he was finding a rhythm before the All-Star break. The infielder has four hits across his last two games, and three of those were singles.

Stott has a .291 xBA across his previous seven games, and again, Scott has been vulnerable to hard contact lately. His primary offering is the four-seamer, and Stott owns a 46.9% hard-hit rate against the fastball this season. 

I'll play this pick up to -140. 

How to watch Mets vs Phillies and game info

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Welcome back, folks! Here's to the second half of the MLB season, which kicks off with Aaron Nola and the Phillies hosting Christian Scott and the Mets tonight. 

ESPN has live coverage starting at 6:10 p.m. ET.

Let's dive into my Mets vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, July 16, where I see New York offering value as a +118 moneyline underdog.

Who will win Mets vs Phillies today: Mets moneyline (+118)

Despite the first game back from the All-Star break being in the City of Brotherly Love, I think this is a letdown spot for the Philadelphia Phillies. Especially with Aaron Nola on the mound, as he owns a 6.61 ERA over his last three outings.

Meanwhile, New York Mets right-hander Christian Scott has been more than serviceable over his last three starts, posting a 3.38 ERA, 4.14 xERA and 1.13 WHIP. Before the break, the Mets were on a tear, sporting a 117 wRC+, .334 wOBA, .172 ISO, and .757 OPS over their previous 12 games. 

With all the theatrics and hype around the city over the last few days, this feels like a prime letdown spot for the Phillies. Pair that with the way Nola has been pitching lately, and the Mets should be in a great position to feast.

COVERS INTEL: The Phillies have managed just a 93 wRC+, .135 ISO, and .684 OPS over their last 12 games.

Mets vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (-103)

With how poorly Nola has pitched this season and how hot the Mets offense was heading into the break, I want to be on the over.

Batters-Box projects six combined elite-rated bats and three more with strong ratings. Scott owns a poor rating in the default settings, while Nola carries a poor rating in the current season dataset. Both pitchers also grade out poorly in matchup hard contact, wOBA, and ISO.

I think most of the damage comes from the Mets, but Scott is due to give up a few runs as well.

Mets vs Phillies weather

This evening in Philadelphia should be a scorcher, with temperatures around 93 degrees at first pitch and winds blowing out to left field at 11 mph. There's a 28% chance of precipitation, but the game should be just fine.

The heat should definitely give the long ball a boost tonight.

Mets vs Phillies odds

• Moneyline: Mets +118 | Phillies -122
• Run line: Mets +1.5 (-160) | Phillies -1.5 (+156)
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-102) | Under 9.5 (-100)

Mets vs Phillies trend

The Mets have covered the run line in nine of their last 16 games for +2.85 units and a 15% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies.

How to watch Mets vs Phillies and game info

Mets vs Phillies latest injuries

Mets: Luis Robert (Out), Marcus Semien (Out). 
Phillies: No key injuries to report.

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If the A’s have a terrific second half reversing all bad trends, we will be able to look at this “unauthorized coaching” article as the springboard that vaulted the team back to relevancy. Obviously, if the team continues to sputter it’s not my fault — who reads junk on the internet anyway?

The All-Star break offers a natural “reset” and no team could use one more than the A’s, who limped, tripped, and plunged into a well even Lassie couldn’t help with, dropping 9 in a row and 17 of 20 to achieve the impossible: falling off the radar in the AL West.

Hopefully, Zack Gelof’s and Nick Kurtz’ IL stints will be minimal and soon the A’s will be at least near full strength again in terms of their roster. But how to squeeze more out of a roster that struggled to hit (on the road), pitch (at home), and led for 6 pitches on the last 6 game road trip.

Here’s some of how (if you know these folks feel free to pass these pearls along)…

Henry Bolte

For whatever reason, possibly involving head movement and/or swinging too much with the top half and not properly aligning the bottom half, most every time Bolte pulls the ball it’s on the ground. This worked fine for a while as he beat out a bevy of weak bouncers and some of the harder ones got through the infield, but it is not a sustainable profile.

This was shown in the slump Bolte took into the All-Star break, 6 for his last 50 with just one extra base hit (a HR). That a .120 BA and .180 SLG.

The solution: Even if he can’t adjust your mechanics easily mid-season, simply a change in approach can allow Bolte to return to being an offensive force in the 2nd half. During his epic 12 for 12 XBH-a-palooza at AAA just before being called up, Bolte was rifling balls to RF and right-center. This has always been, and continues to be, his best swing.

Pitchers are exploiting Bolte’s desire to “turn on pitches” by running a lot of fastballs in on the hands and Bolte is responding by chopping a lot of weak ground balls to 3B and SS. Sliders and changeups away, unless hung, have never been good pitches to try to pull.

Bolte should embrace his strength and think “right-center”. This will have many positive repercussions all at once. One is that he will naturally become less interested in pitches that are in off the plate, curing him of one way pitchers are getting him out a lot lately. Another is that an off-field swing/approach allows hitters to see pitches that fraction of a second longer, resulting in generally better swing decisions. A third is that it plays to Bolte’s inherent strength rather than trying, in real time, to master a part of his game that does not come easily.

The beauty is that when you focus on your strength and it results in a lot of hard contact, more slugging, increased success, not only is it a confidence booster but pitchers lose a “way to get you out” and are forced to throw more strikes to the inner half (if you are routinely mashing strikes on the outer half). And with that increased confidence, perhaps without being so self-conscious or effortful about it, you might turn on some inside fastballs or spin left up and hit the line drives and fly balls to LF that are so hard to produce now.

If Bolte emphasizes a “right center field first” approach he will be in company with some truly great hitters, such as Miguel Cabrera, Edgar Martinez, and Michael Young. And it doesn’t have to be forever, but it absolutely should be for right now.

Jacob Wilson

I’ve made much of this in game thread comments but it warrants its own paragraph here. Wilson suffers for his own ability and confidence: he is sure he can “get to” any pitch and he has a gift for sometimes turning pitches off the outside corner or down at the ankles into base hits.

The problem is, just because you can hit a pitch doesn’t mean you are well served to put it in play. The reality is that Wilson has, many many times, been gotten out (or you could say gotten himself out) on two pitches: well in off the plate and very high out outside. These are pitches that when you do put them in play, it’s going to be a pop-up or a lazy fly ball.

My belief is this: yes, Wilson can be a decent hitter swinging at a lot of junk. He has a unique gift that might allow him to hit .280 with this flawed approach. Trouble is, as a .280 hitter Wilson’s value is compromised since he rarely walks and his slugging is not especially high. A .280/.320/.400 hitter is ok but not special.

The solution: My other belief is that if Wilson will just commit to an approach of “hunting strikes” he can hit .320, which in this day and age is elite. He has even demonstrated that for long stretches (2-3 months) he is capable of hitting at that level. Bump his BA .040 and suddenly we’re talking about a .320/.360/.440 hitter who plays a solid SS. Now that’s the player the A’s signed to an extension.

Jacob, we know you can hit a lot of bad balls and even poke some of them for hits. But if you truly “hunt strikes” and commit to trying to lay off pitches you can hit but are balls, you can be the player who earned the All-Star starting gig just one year ago.

Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom

Both Langeliers and Soderstrom have had excellent stretches this season and bad stretches. For Soderstrom he struggled mightily early before turning it on lately, and Langeliers has been in a funk since an incredible April. Both are essential cogs in the A’s hopes of having a plus lineup with depth and ample power. But neither has been as consistent as you would want.

The solution: Stop guessing, start reacting. Soderstrom and Langeliers share that too many times that are caught looking for a pitch and either looking foolish swinging at what they’re not being thrown or, just as often, watching a called third strike they could have mashed if only they had known it was coming.

To my eyes, both hitters are at their best when they simply react to each pitch as best they can and are at their worst when they anticipate one pitch only to be vulnerable if and when they guess wrong. Most recently we saw this in action during the White Sox series that was so forgettable for Langeliers, culminating in a critical at bat (runner at 3B, one out, 1-0 in the 8th) when looking fastball Shea was frozen by a curve center cut that he wasn’t looking for, then tried to swing at a fastball that turned out to be a chase slider. Resolving not to swing at another chase slider, Langeliers stepped back in…and watched a belt fastball that caught a lot of the plate.

These two hitters will take off if they get back to basics, a version of “see ball, hit ball”. Just react so that every belt high curve, every elevated slider or changeup, every fastball in your happy zone, gets properly punished. Of course you won’t recognize correctly every pitch, so you’re going to wave at some sliders in the dirt or get way out of in front of some changeups, but overall you will be much better off and so will the A’s.

Basic Hitting Strategies

There is one tendency that drives me crazy, because even as I watch game after game for decades I still don’t get it. It’s the compulsion to swing at high fastballs well above the top of the strike zone.

The solution: There is a very basic principle that can prevent hitters from falling into this trap. It’s a “truth” that should be ingrained in every hitter: if you have to raise your hands significantly to swing, you’re not swinging at a strike. This was actually taught to me years and years ago by the great Cal baseball head coach, Bob Milano.

He was right. The moment you feel yourself start to raise your hands, you are about to swing at a ball. That’s because every hitter’s hands set up no lower than the top of the strike zone, certainly at the point where they are actually swinging. So don’t raise your hands to go after a pitch and you have stopped swinging at a key chase pitch: the high fastball out of the zone.

Put Players In The Best Position To Succeed

Ideally, every player should be able to thrive under any conditions, but in reality this is just not the case. Recently the A’s have walked into some unnecessary trouble, giving Jeffrey Springs not one but two starts on a 6-game homestand in Summerlin, and last week moving JT Ginn up while he was battling a 2-week illness to both start and finish the 6-game road trip.

Opportunities to shuffle personnel in their best interests don’t always present themselves, but here’s an easy example in front of Mark Kotsay and his wacky coaching crew. The A’s have a brief 3-game homestand coming out of the All-Star break, a 4-day hiatus that allows teams to reshuffle their rotations as they please.

The SP you clearly want to minimize starts at Sutter Health Park is the lone remaining veteran, Springs. Starting Springs against the Nationals over the weekend would be yet again asking for trouble, whereas the rotation is so flexible at this moment that Springs could easily be penciled into the #4 spot opening the road trip to Arizona, a hitter’s ballpark but nothing like West Sacramento where Springs has an unsightly 6.79 with 16 HR in 54.1 IP.

The solution: So here’s one easy move the A’s could make coming out of the ASB: Let 3 of the young guns, e.g., Jump, Perkins, and Ginn, get the ball for the 3 home games and then trot Springs out there against the Diamondbacks — and focus on fastballs down and away. Why? Because one thing about that pitch and location is it rarely gets hit out of the ballpark. And lord knows that should be the first, second, and third emphasis for Springs, who leads the planet in HRs allowed.

Leave it to the A’s to wait until it’s too late to make necessary changes and then start playing good baseball. But better late than never and in the mediocre AL West, a suburb of the mediocre AL, string a few wins together and as the Red Sox can tell you, you never know when you might even find yourself being relevant again.

Go do all these things, A’s, and godspeed to you. If you can lose 9 in a row then you can win 9 in a row, and I highly recommend it. Let’s face it: if the team only loses 55 games this season, it’s probably going to be a fun ride after all.

Not every player that makes the major league is going to become a Hall of Famer. Not every player that makes it is going to be an All-Star. Not every player that makes it will even have a semi-long career. There are plenty of guys who have a brief cup of coffee and then never make it back. However, those guys still all have stories.

Tom Metcalf was one of those guys, and he has some quite interesting tidbits about his story.

Thomas John “Tom” Metcalf
Born: July 16, 1940 (Amherst, WI)
Yankees Tenure: 1963

Metcalf was born and raised in Wisconsin, attending Lincoln High School in Wisconsin Rapids. He was a three sport star in high school, leading the Lincoln team in baseball, football, and basketball. Baseball is what got him a scholarship to Northwestern University, but he even played a bit of basketball there too.

After looking like a star on the mound for Northwestern, he was struck by a ball while watching teammates take batting practice. That kept him off the field for a while, and in the meantime, he let his grades drop below the level of being academically ineligible. During that time, pro scouts started to circle, and the Yankees eventually came in and outbid others to land the pitcher.

Starting his pro career in 1961, Metcalf fairly quickly rose through the Yankees’ minor league ranks. While he began his tenure in the system as a starter, the Yankees switched him to a reliever, and by 1963, he was already up in Triple-A. To start the ‘63 season, he had posted a 2.69 ERA in 67 innings and then got the call to the big leagues, joining a dynastic club that had won the 12 of the last 14 AL pennants and 10 of the past 14 World Series titles (including the most recent couple years in a row from 1961-62).

Metcalf debuted on August 4th in the first game of a doubleheader against the Orioles. He allowed three runs in two innings, but did retire future Hall of Famer Brooks Robinson and future MVP Boog Powell as part of his outing.

Playing time proved to be a little sparce for Metcalf, though. His next appearance didn’t come until August 14th, as the Yankees were still trying to claim the AL pennant. Metcalf would go on to pitch 13 innings across eight games, posting a very solid 2.77 ERA. The Yankees did also clinch the pennant, advancing to the World Series against the Dodgers.

His cameo down the stretch was good enough for Metcalf to get named to the Yankees’ World Series roster. He wouldn’t get a chance to pitch, though that would be the fate of several Yankees as the team got swept away. The story of the series was that the Yankees’ offense scored just four runs in total against Sandy Koufax and company, as the Dodgers dominated.

However as things played out, that ended up being it for Metcalf’s MLB career. The following spring, Metcalf lost out on the final bullpen spot, as new manager Yogi Berra preferred Pete Mikkelsen. Metcalf returned to Triple-A, but couldn’t replicate his previous numbers. He spent another season in the minors in 1965 and similarly couldn’t crack the big leagues. In spring training 1966, the Yankees were set to sell Metcalf to Cleveland, but the pitcher decided he was through with baseball and was returning back to his native Wisconsin.

Since leaving baseball, Metcalf went and got into the lumber business. If you’re looking for lumber somewhere in Wisconsin or that general area, perhaps check out Metcalf Lumber. He still lives in the Wisconsin Rapids area and is probably somewhere celebrating his 86th birthday as you read this.

Metcalf had quite a ride for a reliever who only had one major league season. According to his SABR bio (a wonderful resource for this particular article), he briefly dated future actress Ann-Margaret, who attended Northwestern at the same time. Upon going to LA while with the Yankees in the 1963 World Series, he tried to get back in contact, only to be rebuffed as she was then in a relationship with a certain Elvis Presley. What a world.

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Good morning everyone, and happy Thursday!

It’s the final day of the All-Star Break, and hope springs eternal for the second half. What are your expectations for the club the rest of the way?

In Mariners news…

• Brendan Donovan officially kicked off his rehab assignment in the Arizona Complex League last night.
• Carlos Collazo at Baseball America gave a full breakdown of the Mariners’ 2026 draft class. ($)
• Zac Hereth at Seattle Sports outlined some critical second half series for the Mariners’ playoff hopes, specifically as they pertain to possible tiebreaking scenarios.
• Daniel Kramer provided a primer for the trade deadline, which is now just a couple of weeks away.

Around the league…

• The Astros cleared some payroll off their books by sending right-hander Lance McCullers, Jr. to the Brewers for left-hander Colton Gordon.
• The Athletics are calling up infielder Tommy White in advance of their upcoming series against the Nationals.
• Maybe this helps explain how the Nationals have surpassed expectations this year. Though, this specific injury has cleared the way for Harry Ford to make it up to D.C. for the first time this year.

• Ten years later, we’ve learned that FOX Sports tried to convince MLB to postpone the ending of the rain-delayed Game 7 of the 2016 World Series to the following day.
• Get to know soon-to-be Athletics ace Gage Jump through his insightful conversation with Fangraphs’ David Laurila.
• Rob Mains at Baseball Prospectus bemoaned the loss of diversity among scorebugs on baseball broadcasts. ($)
• Alexandra Tey at Defector recapped a fun day at the ball yard for “trans girl baseball,” and explained why this fun tradition among friends has made such an impact on her life.

The 2026 MLB season resumes later today.

That means we’ve got a bit less than half a season remaining, plus the postseason, until the collective bargaining agreement between MLB owners and players expires Dec. 1 and we will almost certainly experience another lockout by owners at that time.

What happens after that is really anyone’s guess. The game is at a high point in popularity and talent and almost everyone agrees that interrupting that with a season of missed games would be a bad thing. And yet, we could be headed that way.

Here’s where players and owners stood as we hit the All-Star break, per this article by Evan Drellich in The Athletic.

Owners:

“I do know this: I think that I have an ownership group that is more united than any group in my entire time in baseball,” said Manfred, who started working with MLB as outside counsel in the late 1980s. “I think they are a group that believes in what I have been arguing for, and that is listening to our fans, trying to make changes to produce the best possible game that we can produce.”

Those changes, of course, are primarily connected to a salary cap, which owners have been trying to impose on players for nearly half a century. It’s what killed a third of the 1981 season and what killed the 1994 postseason. And they’re still at it. Commissioner Rob Manfred’s statement hints that fans want a salary cap, which… well, it’s true if you listen to carefully curated fan polls which had questions carefully crafted to the owners’ benefit. Which should not surprise you.

Players:

“Our union, the MLBPA, has been the most successful of the unions in professional sports,” said interim union head Bruce Meyer, who, like Manfred, spoke to members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America on Tuesday prior to the All-Star Game. “The other unions look to the MLBPA. I sometimes get asked about a salary cap, ‘Why does baseball not have one? Why is it the only one that doesn’t have one?’ The answer is very simple. It’s because our union has been the strongest.”

This is also true. I don’t think I have ever seen the MLBPA as united as it is right now against a salary cap. The cap isn’t designed to have a more “level playing field,” as owners claim. It’s designed to keep more of baseball’s $12 billion annual revenues in the hands of owners.

Players are the game. They are the ones who provide entertainment, thrills and the loyalty we feel as fans of a particular team, in our case, the Cubs. They should get paid commensurate with that. No one goes to a baseball game, or watches one on TV, to see owners own teams.

In fact, players were just as unified five years ago, when the last negotiations took place:

“What I think gets forgotten is — and I know the league leaves this part out — is that we started negotiating in April or May (2021),” Meyer said. “In our view, we didn’t get serious proposals from the league until February (2022). At the end of the day, in February, they started making real moves.

“At one point, they said … ‘We are going to miss games. That’s it.’ At that point, our players unanimously, the entire executive board, all 38, said that deal is not good enough.

“The league went back and they made their offer better. And again, they said, ‘All right, this time we mean it. If you don’t agree, then we’re going to miss games. That’s it. It’s too late.’ Again our players, and again unanimously — all 38 — rejected it.”

The third time, the owners’ offer had grown sufficiently, in Meyer’s view. He also said he did not recommend turning down the deal that turned into the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement that’s about to expire.

“My point is, the players were completely unified and willing to miss games up until the point where the league finally put enough on the table,” Meyer said. “Some of the narrative leaves out the two steps before that, where all 38 were unanimous in saying, we are willing to miss games unless you make the deal better.

The same thing is happening now. As I wrote here two months ago, players and owners had already begun exchanging proposals in around the same time frame they did in 2021. As is often the case for negotiations like this, none of the early proposals from either side is likely to be adopted. A lot of early bargaining in these cases is posturing. As many of you know, I was a TV director and a member of the Directors Guild of America. I once sat in on a negotiating session between DGA representatives and reps of the producers and TV networks who the DGA’s contracts are with. At one point the lead DGA negotiator said, “This is the most insulting offer in the history of collective bargaining.” Hyperbole, of course, but you can see that’s the sort of thing that happens in these types of negotiations. I can tell you that no DGA-represented worker ever missed a single day due to strike or lockout. The deals were always hammered out — sometimes a bit after the last minute.

And that’s what we all hope happens here, in time for no games to be missed in 2027. It would, as I wrote earlier, be the worst thing that could happen to a sport that seems on the upswing — especially with MLB’s national TV contracts coming up for renewal after 2028, and Manfred’s professed desire to perhaps have most, or all, local TV rights bundled with the national deals to make more money. A lockout that costs games in 2027 would almost certainly cost MLB owners a lot of money on those TV deals. And they know that.

Let’s hope they can reach a deal where the 2027 season goes off as scheduled, with no games lost.

And speaking of 2028, that is when the next Olypmics will be held, hosted in Los Angeles. And there’s been much talk about MLB players participating, which would obviously raise the Olympic baseball competition to a very high level.

Drellich writes in The Athletic that MLB has proposed penalties for players who are chosen for Olympic baseball teams but who later back out:

In a May proposal to the union, Major League Baseball said it wants big leaguers to face an effective suspension longer than three weeks — a period that would last into the second half of the regular season — if they are chosen to participate in the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles but skip out without an approved excuse.

From as early as July 10 through Aug. 3, 2028, players who choose not to play in the Summer Games would be on the restricted list without pay or service time, per a copy of the proposal reviewed by The Athletic. Placement on the injury list would technically be an approved excuse, but with a wrinkle: such players would get pay and service time, but would not be able to return to regular-season action until after the same day, Aug. 3.

Bruce Meyer, the head of the Players Association, on Tuesday called the league’s proposal “extreme.” MLB commissioner Rob Manfred, meanwhile, said the proposal was made on the premise that the 2028 Summer Games are “a unique opportunity to market the sport with our very, very best players.”

Again, as you can see, there’s a lot of posturing going on. Meyer’s comment isn’t entirely wrong, but calling it “extreme” isn’t going to push owners to come any closer to a deal on this.

Here’s how the proposed Olympic baseball competition would work with MLB players:

To accommodate the baseball portion of the Olympics, which is set to run from July 13-19, 2028, the usual midseason All-Star break would be extended. The first half of the regular season would wrap up July 9, and the All-Star Game is then set to be played July 11, likely in San Francisco. The regular season would resume on July 21.

So that would make the extended All-Star break 11 days, instead of the current four, but seven of those days would have Olympic baseball, which presumably would be of high interest. It would be like the World Baseball Classic, only compressed into one week instead of more than three, and with players who are in mid-season form instead of guys still trying to get ready for the season in March. Could be a lot of fun. Also, this is the first time I’ve seen any mention of the All-Star Game site for 2028. It should be noted that the Cubs have supposedly been told that if the 2027 season misses enough games due to a labor stoppage that the Wrigley Field All-Star Game wouldn’t happen next year, that the Cubs would host in 2028 instead.

Here’s what will happen next on this topic, per Drellich:

An MLB official who was not authorized to speak publicly said the union has not responded to the league’s participation proposal. A union official who was not authorized to speak publicly said that the MLBPA has informed the league that it would respond once players have a broader set of proposals on all the other issues.

A slew of additional things need to be worked out, including player accommodations and compensation for participation, as well as how many tickets are available to players and their guests. In the union’s proposal on those matters, it pushed for big leaguers to have many of the same accommodations that National Hockey League players are afforded for their participation in the Olympics.

The negotiations are complicated by the number of parties at the table: beyond just MLB and the MLPBA, the International Olympic Committee and LA28 are involved as well. The World Baseball Softball Confederation is also part of the process.

So there are a lot of moving parts here, and of course this discussion is going on at the same time as labor negotiations, so everyone’s got a full plate.

Lastly, here’s an early look at which countries would participate in Olympic baseball:

The U.S., the Dominican Republic and Venezuela have already secured spots in the 2028 Olympics’ baseball tournament. The latter two clubs qualified during the WBC, and the U.S. has an automatic bid as the host country. The last three spots will be determined at upcoming tournaments.

It’s not clear which tournaments these are, but I would imagine Japan would be one of the other countries who would come out of any qualifying tournament. Presuming MLB players participate, that would add huge star power to Olympic baseball.

Again, as always, we await developments.