Category: Baseball

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It’s Paul Skenes Day, and that means the odds have lost their bearings. With the Pittsburgh Pirates starting their most well-known player since a much smaller Barry Bonds was in Pittsburgh, plenty of casual bettors are backing the Bucs.

That means the better team is a heavy underdog, which means a chance to cash in. It’s why my Braves vs. Pirates predictions and MLB picks are calling for an Atlanta win.

Who will win Braves vs Pirates today: Braves moneyline (+132)

Even at the height of his powers, Paul Skenes shouldn’t make the Atlanta Braves +132, and he’s far from his height.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have lost their last nine starts. It’s not merely a lack of run support — Skenes has a 5.36 ERA over his last nine games, and he’s coming off a career-worst day — eight runs and two homers in four innings.

It doesn’t guarantee a Braves win, but it’s the smart-money play if the Braves are heavier than +120. Atlanta is seven games better, has a run differential 62 runs higher, and is better on the road than Pittsburgh is at home.

COVERS INTEL: Paul Skenes' four-seamer and sinker have both lost almost one full MPH from last season and are spinning 90 revolutions less. His whiff rate on the sinker is 8.8%, about half of last season’s. His changeup is the same speed as before, and the lack of difference between that and his fastballs is affecting that pitch as well. Batters are hitting 100 points higher against the change this year.

Braves vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+109)

Skenes is affecting these odds as well. However, he's not pitched in the seventh inning in his last nine starts and has failed to complete six in six of them. Pittsburgh’s bullpen has a 6.75 ERA in the last three games, in which they’ve pitched a total of 16 of the 27 innings.

Both teams are stroking the ball. Pittsburgh has scored five or more in each of the last five games. Atlanta has done one better, scoring a total of 44 in the last six.

The Braves start Hurston Waldrep, who's making just his third appearance since returning from February arm surgery.

Braves vs Pirates weather

Braves vs Pirates odds

• Moneyline: Braves +144 | Pirates -150
• Run line: Braves +1.5 (-144) | Pirates -1.5 (+133)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+117) | Under 8.5 (-122)

Braves vs Pirates trend

The Pirates have cashed the Over in 30 of their last 45 home games for +13.8 units and a 28% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Pirates.

How to watch Braves vs Pirates and game info

Braves vs Pirates latest injuries

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Quick Background of Michael Soroka.

The Braves drafted him in the first round of the 2015 draft. 

Perhaps, 2019 was the best season of his career (All-Star, received votes for rookie of the year and Cy Young awards).  In 2020, he was the Braves’ youngest opening-day starting-pitcher in the team’s modern history.

A series of injuries over several years kept him from achieving his potential.  In 2025, he started games for the Nationals, then was a reliever (with one game as opener) for the Cubs. 

Why did the Diamondbacks acquire him?

Mike Hazen said Soroka had a combination of stuff, bounce-back potential, and upside to make him a good fit for the Diamondbacks.  What he did NOT say (but is likely true) is that the acquisition was risky (both under-performance and injury were possible), but with risk limited by a one-year contract.

Perhaps the Diamondbacks knew about his new pitch before they signed him. In 2026, he added a cutter to his arsenal so batters would be concerned with the other half of the plate.  In 2026, it was 11-12% of pitches to each of left-handed batters and right-handed batters. 

One aspect of Michael Soroka’s mental attitude is shown in the following quote:

“It’s all about getting out there and getting the next out.” — Michael Soroka, May of 2026

Concerns about injury risk were expressed by AZ Snakepitters in a roundtable.

• “Mike Hazen and his staff are mad if they think Soroka is going to be able to provide 120 IP out of the rotation. He might not even reach 80 IP.” —  James Attwood
• “…That’s not to say ERod hasn’t had the better career thus far, but if I’m going for ceiling and floor, I’m riding the potential of Soroka knowing he’s only good for 20 starts at most….” —  Spencer

Soroka pitching for the Diamondbacks was outstanding.

An immaculate inning is rare (only 121 times in MLB).  It requires striking out three consecutive batters with exactly 9 pitches (the least possible pitches).

“On March 30, 2026, in his first start with the Diamondbacks, Soroka threw the 120th immaculate inning in MLB history against the Detroit Tigers.” — Wikipedia

This season, his best stat is 5.1% walks (94th percentile).  Two other Baseball Savant stats of note: 

• His 33.6% Chase is at the 81st percentile.
• His 34.1% hard hits is at the 79th percentile.   

My view is that for the Diamondbacks, there are two more general stats that will indicate the teams winning chances:

• Percentage of Quality Starts (at least 6 innings with 3 or less earned runs).
• Percentage of games with 3 or less earned runs.

The following table looks at those two stats for all the Diamondbacks starters except Cabrera and Bratt (who together have accumulated 4 games started through 5 July).  Based on the table, my view is that Soroka is the second best pitcher in the Diamondbacks rotation.

Soroka was injured, but is expected back soon.

Soroka injured his left glut on 19 June (after 15 starts, 82 innings pitched). Although some might say I told you so, it was a relatively minor injury and he is expected back this season.

“That glute injury is fairly asymptomatic, so he’s going to begin his throwing program, bullpens, etc., and building up as best he can, as fast as he can to return to us.” — Torey Lovullo

“It’s a fast turnaround.  Once he gets back on the bump, and starts that progression we want to be as quick as possible.” — Torey Lovullo

Outlook for 2027 and 2028.

My view of the Diamondbacks’ starting pitchers who could be part of the rotation is summarized in the following table.

One view is that next season’s return of Corbin Burnes will cover the loss of Soroka, and at least one of the other pitchers will be ready to cover for the loss of Gallen. In that view, there is no reason to extend Soroka.

My view is that at least seven starters will be needed in each of the next two seasons. Subject to changes made via trades and off-season acquisitions, the quality of Diamondbacks pitching would be significantly improved by acquiring one additional starting pitcher for each of 2027 and 2028. Therefore, extending Michael Soroka would fill a need. Let’s look at whether it would be a good move.

Four reasons to extend Michael Soroka.

This season, his performance in percentage quality starts is better than all the other Diamondbacks starters except Rodriguez.

The Diamondbacks have made some bad signings of starting pitchers, such as Madison Bumgarner. That stands in stark contrast to Soroka’s signing, which helped the Diamondbacks. 

Next season would be Soroka’s second season with the Diamondbacks. That is significant because this AZ Snake Pit article found data that showed that newly acquired starters (age 30 and older) tend to perform better their second year with a new team.

Soroka is a known quantity, reducing acquisition risk tremendously. 

Summary.

The Diamondbacks acquired Michael Soroka because he had a combination of stuff, bounce-back potential, and upside to make him a good fit for the Diamondbacks.  The acquisition was risky (both under-performance and injury were possible), but the risk was limited by a one-year contract.

For the Diamondbacks, Michael Soroka’s pitching was outstanding. His excellent stats included percentage walks, chase percentage, and hard hit percentage. His percentage of quality starts ranked second best in the Diamondbacks rotation.

On 19 June, after starting 15 games, Soroka was injured. He is expected back soon.

Looking at the rotation in the next two seasons, my view is that the Diamondbacks would benefit from extending Soroka’s contract. Reasons include high percentage of quality starts, my expectation of improved performance in his second season with the Diamondbacks, and he is a known quantity which reduces risk.

The last year has been a whirlwind for 19-year-old Dominican second baseman and center fielder Roldy Brito. After a solid–if unremarkable–2024 season in the Dominican Summer League, the unranked and relatively unknown prospect saw his stock and national recognition explode after a standout 2025 campaign.

Brito was named the Arizona Complex League MVP after hitting .368/.445/.555 with 13 doubles, six triples, three home runs, 21 RBIs, and 22 stolen bases over 51 games with the ACL Rockies. He then handled the transition to affiliated minor league baseball by putting up a fantastic debut with the Low-A Fresno Grizzlies. With the Grizzlies he hit another seven doubles, a triple, a home run. In addition, he had 17 RBIs and stole another 13 bases while slashing .375/.442/.463 over 33 games to finish the season.

For his efforts, Brito rocketed up the prospect rankings.

He is now the Rockies’ no. 3 organizational prospect per MLB Pipeline, no. 71 in the MLB Top 100, and our no. 11 PuRP in Purple Row’s pre-season rankings.

Brito was re-assigned to Low-A Fresno to start the 2026 season, where he has continued to build on his previous season. Through 76 games, he is hitting .325/.388/.492 with 20 doubles, eight triples, six home runs, 63 RBIs, 16 stolen bases, and a solid 2:1 ratio of strikeouts to walks.

“A lot has happened in this last year, but I think it’s been awesome to be a part of,” Brito said in a recent media availability through interpreter Edwin Perez. “I think it’s been a good start to my career, something that I’ve put on myself as a player to achieve the goals that I have achieved.”

Brito described how grateful he has been for his experiences over the last year.

“I’m thankful to God that I’ve been given this opportunity, and it’s been exciting to be a part of this journey,” he said. “This year, just being able to grow in the game and continue to rise, but it’s not something that I take for granted. I’m thankful to God. I’m thankful to be able to be in this place.”

Brito credits his dad, whom he has described as not only his biggest supporter but also his manager and his best coach, for helping him keep his head down and continue to work and find success.

“He’s given me good advice ever since I was a kid,” Brito said. “About my game, about when things go wrong or right, he’s the one that tells me the adjustments that I need to make when I’m going through a bad hitting streak or a bad streak overall in my game. He’s the one who puts his hand on me and tells me what I need to fix, what needs to get right.”

He continued to express gratitude for his father.

“I think my dad’s just been the biggest rock in my life and the biggest support ever since I was a kid. He will keep it real when he needs to keep it real about me and what I need to do. I’m thankful for every day that he’s helped me improve as a player.”

Brito has also praised members of the Rockies organization and his coaches in Fresno for their work with him.

“All the hitting coaches here and all the coaches overall in Fresno have been such a huge help for me,” he said. “It’s been a huge learning experience for me down at this level because every day we’re looking at every aspect of the game. how I can improve as a player, how can I avoid mistakes when I go up in my future. But also, I give a big shoutout to Rolando Fernandez (the Rockies vice president of international scouting and development) because without him, I would not have had the opportunity to sign with this organization.

Brito described the significant influence Fernandez has had on him since the young player signed with the organization as part of the 2024 international class.

“He’s been just an overall huge help getting me in the door, but also on me as a player and as a person off the field,” Brito said. “He’s been just a huge support, but also understanding that he wants me to have success. He’s been big in that aspect.”

Brito also heaped praise on his fellow teammates with the Grizzlies.

“It’s a group that I’m thankful to be a part of,” he said. “We truly have the best intentions for each other. We want to grow as a group. It’s like a family. We’re supporting each other every day, every at bat. It’s sad when someone leaves us — we lost [Ethan] Holliday, we lost [Jack] O’Dowd, we lost [Tanner] Thach, it’s sad when those guys go. But it’s a group that we’re truly friends outside of the field. But when we’re on the field, we’re playing for each other. We’re not just playing for ourselves.”

Brito has enjoyed immense success with his newfound family in Fresno. However, he also recognizes his need to continue to grow and push towards the future in his professional career.

“I’m not looking just at the past,” he said. “I want to keep it going. I want to have the courage, I want to continue to have the faith and trust in myself that I can keep doing this stuff. And trust me, I’m not done. I’ve put so much on myself to accomplish this year—and obviously this Futures Game is one of them, but I have more to accomplish, and I’m excited for it. It’s been an awesome journey, a marvelous journey for me, and I can’t wait to see what’s next.”

What’s next for Brito will bring him even more national recognition. He was selected—along with fellow top prospect Charlie Condon (no. 1 PuRP)—to represent the Rockies at this year’s All-Star Futures Game.

“I’ve always wanted to get selected to an important game such as this,” Brito said. “I think it’s going to be something that’s going to be very beautiful. It’s going to be a game that I’m just going to go out there playing and enjoy it. I’m really looking forward to the opportunity that I have.”

Brito is one of just three players currently playing in Low-A to be selected for the Futures Game rosters. He’s also the fourth-youngest representative on a Futures Game roster this year.

“It feels very good to be a part of it, one of those three that were able to do so at this kind of level,” he said. “I put it on myself that I want to be part of this kind of thing, and I’m able to be part of it. I think it’s just special for me, so I’m excited for the opportunity.”

Not only does the Futures Game and increased national attention come with the opportunity shed positive light on both Brito and the Rockies organization, it also gives Brito the opportunity to show the world just who he really is.

“This last year, people are paying more attention. This last year has been beautiful as a whole just to experience it,” he began. “For me, on the baseball side, I want them to focus on that I’m aggressive. When I’m out there playing, I’m going to give it my all. I’m not just focusing on the bat. Sometimes you can see the numbers and think ‘they’re just focusing on the bat,’ but I don’t think that’s the case for me. I’m also working on my fielding, I’m working on my running game, I’m working to improve on every aspect of the game. I’m not just a bat and a guy that can swing it well.”

Off the playing field, Brito also expressed how he wants to be seen as a person—especially when it comes to working with his found family in the Rockies’ minor leagues.

“I think the personality that they’re going to see is just a friendly guy. A guy that no matter what a teammate or a person needs around me, a staff member, whatever, they’re going to get that on me,” Brito said with a smile. “Whatever I can do to help someone out, that’s the person I want to be. I want to be that person that can be helpful to everyone. I want to be that upbeat guy that, if someone’s going through a bad stretch or anything like that, I can be the upbeat guy that can help them keep their heads up high. Just an overall friendly guy that they can trust.”

The 2026 All-Star Futures Game will take place on Sunday, July 12th at 10:00 AM MDT to kick off All-Star Week in Philadelphia.

Weekly Pebble Report: June 29th- July 5th

Triple-A: Albuquerque Isotopes (3-3, 45-42 Overall)

Albuquerque’s road week at Round Rock (Texas Rangers) was a study in whiplash. The Isotopes let leads slip late in each of their first two losses — a grand slam surrendered in the eighth, then a walk-off, two-run homer in the ninth the next night — before steadying themselves to win three of the last four. The bats never went quiet, but the bullpen made several nights harder than they needed to be. Albuquerque holds third place in the second-half PCL East standings with a record of 6-6

⬆️ Stock Up: Condon Keeps Raking

There’s no slowing Charlie Condon (No. 1 PuRP). For the second week in a row, the 23-year-old was the best hitter in the lineup, going 10-for-22 (.455) with three home runs, a triple, two doubles, and a hit in four of the five games he played. His power has become a nightly expectation, and the sustained tear has pushed his season slugging past the .600 mark. Whatever adjustments Triple-A pitchers are trying, none of them are working.

⬆️ Stock Up: Shawver Slams the Door

Evan Shawver was a quiet source of order in a chaotic week for the pitching staff. Across two outings, the left-hander tossed four scoreless innings, striking out five without issuing a walk and allowing just four hits. On a week when several arms struggled to hold leads, Shawver simply attacked the zone and got outs — the kind of steady, no-drama relief work that’s easy to overlook until you tally it up.

Upcoming

The Isotopes stay on the road for a six-game series against the Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Houston Astros).

Double-A: Hartford Yard Goats (3-3, 44-36 Overall)

Hartford’s week in Somerset (New York Yankees) started rough and finished strong. The Yard Goats lost three of the first four, before salvaging a split in the final two — including back-to-back gems from Jack Mahoney and Jackson Cox, the latter tossing six no-hit innings to key a shutout finale. Hartford sits in fourth place in the Eastern League Northeast second-half standings at 5-7.

⬆️ Stock Up: Riggio Runs the Show

Roc Riggio (PuRP No.14) set the table and cleared it all week. The second baseman hit .409 (9-for-22) with three home runs, two doubles, four RBIs, and a team-high eight walks, reaching base at a clip that made him a consistent headache at the top of the order. He homered in the series opener, again the next night, and once more in the finale — a steady power-and-patience combination that lifted his season slash line and anchored an offense that came and went around him.

⬇️ Stock Down: Longwell Goes Quiet

Aidan Longwell couldn’t get untracked, managing three hits in 20 at-bats (.150) with seven strikeouts across five games. Two of those knocks were doubles, so the pop wasn’t entirely gone, but the swing-and-miss piled up and the production dried up, dropping his season average to .240. A reset over the coming week would go a long way heading into the All-Star break.

Upcoming

The Yard Goats return home for a six-game series against the Binghamton Rumble Ponies (New York Mets)

High-A: Spokane Indians (6-0, 40-41 Overall)

The Indians ran the table at Hillsboro (Arizona Diamondbacks), sweeping all six on the road behind pitching that rarely gave an inch. Spokane threw two shutouts — including a 1-0 nail-biter — and edged the Hops in a 5-4 game before closing with a 5-3 romp, a staff ERA under 2.00 for the week doing most of the heavy lifting. The sweep lifted the Indians to the top of the Northwest League second-half standings at 11-4. They’ve now won nine in a row.

⬆️ Stock Up: Hopfe Stays Hot

Tommy Hopfe kept his season-long roll going, hitting .400 (10-for-25) with two home runs, two doubles, three steals, and a hit in every game. He scored a team-high seven runs and gave the Indians a spark at the top of the order night after night. There’s no cold stretch in sight for one of Spokane’s steadiest bats.

⬆️ Stock Up: Herrera Deals

Yujanyer Herrera (PuRP No.22) bookended the sweep with two dominant starts. He opened the week with six shutout innings and six strikeouts in a 2-0 win, then returned in the finale to fire five more strong frames. All told: 11 innings, one earned run, nine strikeouts, and a single walk. On a week defined by Spokane pitching, Herrera was the tone-setter at both ends.

Upcoming

The Indians stay on the road for a six-game series against the Eugene Emeralds (San Francisco Giants).

Low-A: Fresno Grizzlies (3-3, 44-37 Overall)

Fresno split six at home with the Ontario Tower Buzzers in a week of wild swings. The Grizzlies piled up runs in a 13-4 rout and a 10-9 walk-off, but absorbed lopsided losses on the other side, closing the series with a 13-0 shutout defeat. The offense mashed, and the pitching wobbled — a fitting summary of a .500 week that keeps Fresno tied for third in the California League with an 8-7 record in the second half.

⬆️ Stock Up: Brito Won’t Make an Out

Roldy Brito (PuRP No.11) turned into an on-base machine. He hit .529 (9-for-17) and reached base at a staggering clip, drawing nine walks and getting hit three times on top of the hits — a triple, a double, and a steal mixed in for good measure. Brito rarely gave the opposition a free out all week, and the .325 hitter did as much as anyone to keep the Fresno lineup churning even in the losses.

⬇️ Stock Down: Kelly Roughed Up

Riley Kelly (PuRP No. 27) couldn’t find any traction in either of his two starts, taking the loss both times. He surrendered 12 earned runs over eight innings (13.50 ERA), gave up 16 hits and three home runs, and exited early in each outing. The strikeouts were there — nine on the week — but the hard contact kept coming, and his season ERA climbed to 6.39.

Upcoming

The Grizzlies stay home for a six-game series against the Stockton Ports (Athletics)

ACL: ACL Rockies (3-2, 33-13 Overall)

The ACL Rockies kept rolling, taking three of five. The offense did the heavy lifting all week — Colorado posted 13, 11, and 13 runs in its three wins — while the pitching had a harder time keeping pace, surrendering nine-plus runs on multiple occasions. The league’s hottest team stays comfortably atop the ACL East at 33-13.

⬆️ Stock Up: Ugarte Powers the Offense

Ronny Ugarte was the engine of the loaded lineup, hitting .400 (8-for-20) with two home runs, a triple, and a team-high nine RBIs across all five games. He drove in runs in bunches and rarely gave away an at-bat, pushing his season line to a robust .357 clip. In a week where the Rockies’ bats carried the club, Ugarte’s was the loudest.

⬇️ Stock Down: Cubilla Clipped

Efrain Cubilla ran into trouble in his lone outing of the week, a relief appearance in the game against the Giants. He was charged with six runs on eight hits over two innings, unable to find the strike zone’s edges as the Giants teed off. It was a single rough night rather than a trend, but it was a costly one, briefly threatening a game the Rockies would go on to win.

DSL: DSL Colorado (4-1) & DSL Rockies (4-0)

Both Dominican Summer League affiliates had strong weeks. DSL Colorado won its first four before dropping a 12-9 slugfest to DSL NYY Yankees in the finale, holding first place in the DSL Southeast at 16-9. DSL Rockies, meanwhile, ran the table — four straight wins, capped by an 8-7 walk-off over the DSL Tigers 2 — to climb to 11-13 and up to fourth in the DSL East.

⬆️ Stock Up: Montiel Mashes (DSL Colorado)

Adafel Montiel was the centerpiece of Colorado’s offense all week, hitting .471 (8-for-17) with a team-high seven RBIs, two steals, and a hit in nearly every game. His biggest blow came in the opener, a grand slam that keyed a 15-run rout of the DSL NYY Bombers. Now up to .362 on the season, Montiel supplied both the power and the consistency of a first-place lineup.

⬆️ Stock Up: Cancro Rakes (DSL Rockies)

Danny Cancro carried the bat for a Rockies club that won all four of its games. He hit .545 (6-for-11), reaching base in every game and delivering four RBIs while striking out just once. The .346 hitter has become a dependable table-setter, and his steady contact helped power an offense that overwhelmed its opponents throughout an unbeaten week.

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The St. Louis Cardinals will have their work cut out for them in game 1 of a day/night doubleheader against the Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday. The St. Louis Cardinals have announced they’re starting Matt Svanson in game 1 while the Milwaukee Brewers are sending likely All-Star game starter Jacob Misiorowski to the mound. First pitch is scheduled for 1:15pm central time at Busch Stadium.

The Cubs enter this series just 9-14 vs. American League teams. Just five of those 23 games have been against AL East teams, and the Cubs are 3-2 in those (2-1 over the Rays and splitting a pair with the Blue Jays, with the third game of that series rained out and to be made up next month).

So perhaps they can improve on that mark with this visit to Camden Yards, home of the Baltimore Orioles.

For more on the Orioles, here’s Mark Brown, manager of our SB Nation Orioles site Camden Chat.

The Orioles were supposed to find a way to improve on last year’s 75-87 record and all they’re managing to do is be a disappointment again. They enter this series on pace for that exact same record. Almost every player on the roster has shouldered some of the blame for that at some point during the season, with many fans also pointing fingers at first-year manager Craig Albernaz as well as president of baseball operations Mike Elias.

A lot of things have gone wrong. One that stands out to me is that these guys just aren’t hitting left-handed pitchers. That’s good news for the Cubs, since two of your three scheduled pitchers are lefties. The Orioles are also struggling to hit away from Camden Yards, less relevant to this coming series in Baltimore. Everyone’s hoped-for return to superstar status for shortstop Gunnar Henderson has not happened. He brings an OBP under .300 into this series and is a below league-average hitter overall this season. It was supposed to be better.

So was the starting rotation! Elias made a big swing on a trade with the Rays that brought Shane Baz to the Orioles, gambling that there was top-of-the-rotation stuff in there after Baz had a 4.80 ERA last year. The O’s also gave Baz a contract extension — the first Elias has given to a pitcher — before the season even began. They’re not getting No. 1 or No. 2 stuff from Baz; he has a perfectly average 100 ERA+. Thursday’s starter Trevor Rogers is not repeating his magical 2025, though he’s looked better lately after some early season struggles. Expensive veteran starter signings didn’t work out. The bullpen is mostly not working out. Nobody’s ERA is helped by the defense being an absolute mess on a regular basis.

All of this has added up to the Orioles not managing to win more than three games in a row at any point this season. They are 6-14 in one-run games. This team ain’t got it. The weird shape of the American League this year means they’re only 3.5 games out of a wild card spot. If they can ever find that winning streak, they’ll be right there in the mix.

Fun facts

Since 1876, first season of the National League, the Cubs have played 128 games against the Baltimore Orioles — but only 25 against THESE Orioles, who began play in 1901. The earlier 103 were against an NL version of the Orioles, in 1892-99.

The Cubs were just 14-32 at Baltimore vs. the 19th Century Orioles. They are 9-2 there vs. the current flock, having won two of three games in 2003, sweeping three in 2017, splitting two in 2022 and sweeping three again in their last visit, two years ago. In that visit, the Cubs held the Orioles scoreless through the final 24 innings, as they won by 9-2, 4-0 and 8-0.

Last year, at home, the Cubs posted a third straight shutout, 1-0, then blanked the Orioles for seven more innings, for a total of 40 in a row, before giving up four in the eighth and losing, 4-3. The Cubs won the rubber game, 5-3, on Justin Turner’s walk-off homer in the ninth, to make the Cubs’ 17-8 in all games vs. the current Orioles.

(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

Probable pitching matchups

Tuesday: Matthew Boyd, LHP (3-1, 5.08 ERA, 1.396 WHIP, 3.44 FIP) vs. Shane Baz, RHP (4-8, 4.19 ERA, 1.366 WHIP, 3.79 FIP)

Wednesday: Colin Rea, RHP (6-5, 4.74 ERA, 1.433 WHIP, 4.86 FIP) vs. Dean Kremer, RHP (1-1, 3.18 ERA, 0.882 WHIP, 5.11 FIP)

Thursday: David Peterson, LHP (4-7, 6.75 ERA, 1.668 WHIP, 4.09 FIP overall; 1-1, 11.57 ERA, 1.821 WHIP, 5.79 FIP in two starts with Cubs) vs. Trevor Rogers, LHP (6-7, 4.70 ERA, 1.316 WHIP, 4.02 FIP)

Times & TV channels

Tuesday: 5:35 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Wednesday: 5:35 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Thursday: 5:35 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Prediction

The Cubs were 34-34 after losing to the Rockies June 10. Since then they’re 16-6, the best record in MLB. Meanwhile, the Orioles took two of three from the Reds over the weekend (thanks Orioles!) but overall have lost seven of their last 11.

Two of three.

Up next

The Cubs travel to Cincinnati for a three-game series against the Reds that begins Friday evening.

Fresh off a sweep of the Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim) the Boston Red Sox head to Chicago to take on a rejuvenated White Sox team. Possibly outsmarted by (checks notes) Chris Getz, Craig Breslow’s team has been taking a step back while the other Sox skipped the “improve’ step of the rebuilding process and went right to Division Leader.

Chase Meidroth is hitting .268/.339/.378 with 7 homers.

Brandon Montgomery is at .233/.309/.395 with 2 homers.

Kyle Teel has missed most of the season but in the 11 games he’s played he’s put up a .220/.304/.390 slash line with 2 homers.

Garrett Crochet, who the Sox got for this haul, hasn’t done much in 2026.

So, the White Sox owe a little “thank you” to Boston for their bounce back.

Payton Tolle was ambushed by the Washington Nationals for 6 runs in just 3.0 innings. He wasn’t throwing hard. It was almost 100 degrees. Hopefully he bounces right back with Connelly Early and (probably) Ranger Suarez joining Crochet in the IL void. Mass Pike is opposed by Noah Schultz. A 22-year-old southpaw, Schultz is in his first major league season. In 9 starts he’s tossed 43 innings while striking out 40, walking 26, and allowing 29 runs (28 earned).

Another one of the Sox young lefty starters, Jake Bennett has been cruising. His outing against the Angels was 7.2 innings of two-run ball with 6 Ks against 0 walks. You might say “well that’s the Angels” and he was basically as good against the Yankees. Regardless of opponent right now, Bennett looks like a promising major league starter. Righthander David Martin has been a real gem for the White Sox, but not without his struggles. Two of his last five starts have been 3.1 innings including his most recent. He can struggle with walks in his down outings but overall doesn’t walk many people. So patience might be a good plan for Boston batters.

The finale is currently TBD but that’s likely to be Patrick Sandoval. The lefty was last seen in 2024 when he needed Tommy John surgery and missed the entire 2025 season. Finally healthy, across two levels in the minors during his rehab, Sandoval put up a 3.42 ERA over 23.2 innings. He’s struck out 22 against 13 walks. His best year was 2022, so it’s been a minute since he was both healthy and good and 25. Now 29 what does he have left? OTM’s own Jake Roy answers that question in detail. With starts dropping like flies and Sonny Gray possibly on the trade block, we’re about to find out. Anthony Kay, a lefty who spent the last two years in Japan, has been a bit better than he was during his first five major league seasons in MLB. But he’s still not great. He’s leading the league HBPs. He has 67 Ks over 84 innings against 33 walks.

Munetaka Murakami hit 20 homers before hitting the IL.

Old friend Andrew Benintendi is still in Chicago hitting .240/.298/.424 with 10 homers.

Probable Pitching Matchups

Tuesday, July 7: Payton Tolle (3.39 ERA / 3.53 FIP) vs. Noah Schultz (5.86 ERA / 4.85 FIP)

Wednesday, July 8: Jake Bennett (3.10 ERA / 3.13 FIP) vs. Davis Martin (3.08 ERA / 3.08 FIP)

Thursday, July 9: TBD (— ERA / — FIP) vs. Anthony Kay (4.39 ERA / 4.93 FIP)

When/Where to Watch

Tuesday, July 7: 7:40 PM ET on NESN

Wednesday, July 8: 7:40 PM ET on NESN

Thursday, July 9: 2:10 PM ET on NESN

After two tough losses in a row, the Atlanta Braves will head to PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Tonight’s matchup will feature newly returned Hurston Waldrep against reigning Cy Young Award winner, Paul Skenes. Both pitchers have something to prove. Waldrep is likely looking to show he is fully good to go, and Skenes is looking to prove his 3.62 ERA is a fluke.

Skenes is clearly having a down year by his standards when comes to ERA. In his previous two seasons his ERA stayed within 0.01 point of each other with a 1.96 and 1.97 respectively. However, it does appear that he has been a bit unlucky. If you look at his expected ERA (xERA) of 2.76 it is not far off from his previous two seasons of 2.65 and 2.50.

Skenes has been plagued by a terrible left on base percentage. In his previous two seasons his strand rate was 82.4 percent in 2025 and 85.6 percent in 2024. This season his strand rate is 65.8 percent. Odds are we could see his ERA go down just based on that.

One area that could be good for the Braves is that Skenes’ fastball velocity has dropped every single month this season. In April his average fastball was 97.4 MPH and so far in July it has been 96.3. If we go back to the start of his career his velocity has gone down every season. In 2024 there were months when he was averaging 99.3 MPH.

It should be no shock the Braves have struggled against Skenes in their limited sample sizes against him. Five players on the roster have faced Skenes before and none of them have faced Skenes more than three at-bats. Albies has one hit in two at-bats, and Olson has one hit in three. Riley, Smith, and Yastrzemski are all hitless.

Waldrep will be making his third appearance and second as a starter this season. In his last start he lasted 5.1 innings where he gave up five hits to include a HR, three earned runs, a walk, a HBP, and accumulated four strikeouts. It should be noted that all three of those runs happened in the first inning and he was able to settle down and have a solid start overall. In his lone relief appearance, he went 2.0 innings and struggled with command, giving up four walks, but did not give up a run.

The only player on the Pirates that Waldrep has faced in the past is Brandon Lowe, and surely, he remembers it because it was only one at-bat and Lowe took him deep for a solo shot.

On paper it appears that the Pirates have the upper hand as they usually do with Skenes on the mound, but Skenes just came off of his worst start of his career where he gave up seven earned runs in 4.0 innings against the Phillies, and he gave up four earned runs in the start before that. If the Braves were to ever want to face Skenes, now is the time.

Waldrep is going to have to be on his A game. The Pirates have scored the fourth most runs in MLB since the start of June, and the fourth most in the last two weeks. They are staying steady as an offensive force.

First pitch is at 6:40 EDT.

Game Info

Game Time: Tuesday, July 7th, 6:40 pm EDT

Location: PNC Park, , Pittsburgh, PA

Watch: BravesVision, Gray TV

Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

Injuries are a real party pooper. Just like with the major league roster, the Yankees’ top prospects are dropping like flies. With several top hitters and pitchers injured, the guys on the periphery are going to get a chance to shine, and there’s one guy in particular who’s starting to gain some real helium down in Tampa.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Record: 7-4 (44-41), 2 GB in the International League East after a 4-1 week against the Norfolk Tides (Orioles)

Run differential: +13 (+16)

Coming up: Away @ Buffalo Bison (Blue Jays)

It was a good start to July for the RailRiders in the win column, bouncing back from a loss on Tuesday to win four straight to close out the week. Saturday’s game was postponed due to rain and was never made up, as only one game was barely squeezed in on Sunday. But while they picked up some wins, this level’s prospect pedigree is shrinking fast.

George Lombard Jr. should be back soon, though probably not until after a Futures Game he’ll likely miss. Garrett Martin went on the injured list a week ago. Brendan Beck filled in for the big league club on the Fourth of July due to Carlos Rodón’s injury, and while he was optioned shortly after, you’d expect Elmer Rodríguez to get promoted in his place for this week. The big kicker, though, is Carlos Lagrange’s season potentially being over because of a shoulder injury. He’s in no-throw for six weeks, which makes a September return the best-case scenario. So much for a 2026 big league debut…

In a depleted lineup that will, at least, welcome back Spencer Jones this coming week, there’s not too much to write home about. JC Escarra has been good as he stays ready for his next big league opportunity, while Ernesto Martinez Jr. and Marco Luciano have hit well. The team’s most reliable hitter, though, has been Jonathan Ornelas, as the 26-year-old journeyman has been hitting over .300 all season long and came through with a walk-off grand slam on Sunday.

Beck’s emergency promotion thinned the rotation. Dom Hamel allowed six runs in six innings, Alexander Cornielle didn’t finish the fourth in a choppy outing on Friday, and Adam Kloffenstein pitched well on Tuesday. Rodríguez tossed a quality start on Wednesday, getting through 6.2 innings, but the main storyline was the promotion of former third-round pick Kyle Carr, who didn’t allow an earned run in 5.2 innings on Sunday in his Triple-A debut.

The Scranton Shuttle keeps on shuffling the bullpen. Jake Bird and Angel Chivilli are up, while Yovanny Cruz is back down and has really strung together some good outings to get out of a minor funk he had prior to his second promotion. Outside of him, Danny Watson and Zach Messinger have remained under-the-radar, low-velocity arms that have been effective in their roles.

Players of Note:

George Lombard Jr.: .231/.381/.385, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 16 XBH, 8 SB, 109 wRC+ (injured)
Garrett Martin (AA/AAA): .270/.337/.570, 24 HR, 64 RBI, 18 SB, 135 wRC+ (injured)
Brendan Beck: 7-2, 3.07 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 1.02 WHIP, 18.1 K-BB% (88 IP)
Elmer Rodríguez: 4-3, 2.93 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 11.4 K-BB% (61.1 IP)
Carlos Lagrange: 1-4, 4.55 ERA, 4.84 FIP, 1.36 WHIP, 17.8 K-BB% (63.1 IP) (injured)

Double-A Somerset Patriots

Record: 5-7 (42-39), 3 GB in the Eastern League Northeast after a 3-3 week against the Hartford Yard Goats (Rockies)

Run differential: -1 (+35)

Coming up: Home vs. Reading Fightin’ Phils (Phillies)

It was a week of inconsistency down in Somerset, as two early-week victories weren’t able to yield anything other than a split after they scored just one run on Saturday and Sunday combined.

Because of promotions, the offense is a shell of what it was when they dominated the Eastern League with gaudy power numbers for the first two months. They’re leaning on Jace Avina and Coby Morales right now for production, with DJ Gladney and a resurgent Jackson Castillo helping out. They really need some other bats to step up, but where will it come from? The catching room is depleted, Connor McGinnis has been so-so in the infield, and others haven’t picked up the slack.

It was a tale of two starts for Cade Smith, who got a rare double this week. He was great on Tuesday with six strong innings, but didn’t record a strikeout in five rough innings on Sunday. Xavier Rivas lasted just two innings after struggling with the ridiculous heat on Wednesday night, Jack Cebert (6 IP, 2 R, 6 K) tossed a quality start on Thursday, Chase Hampton tossed four shutout innings, and Ben Hess allowed three runs in four innings.

The bullpen welcomed back a key piece from injury in Geoffrey Gilbert, but they continue to rely on Tony Rossi to throw big innings, in which he’s been up and down. Harrison Cohen has been good in relief since he was sent back down, while Ben Grable finally allowed a run on Thursday, but continues to be the man to watch in that bullpen. Hayden Merda also bounced back big time with a five-strikeout outing.

Players of Note:

Jace Avina: .272/.360/.540, 16 HR, 44 RBI, 34 XBH, 28.3 K%, 137 wRC+
Jackson Castillo: .273/.355/.424, 4 HR, 33 RBI, 7 SB, 112 wRC+
Coby Morales: .278/.359/.513, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 12 SB, 131 wRC+
Xavier Rivas: 4-3, 4.82 ERA, 4.95 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 22.4 K-BB% (52.1 IP)
Ben Grable (A+/AA): 3-1, 2.70 ERA, 2.75 FIP, 0.80 WHIP, 30.5 K-BB% (30 IP)

High-A Hudson Valley Renegades

Record: 7-8 (38-42), 4 GB in the South Atlantic League North Second Half after a 3-3 week against the Wilmington Blue Rocks (Nationals)

Run differential: +8 (+17)

Coming up: Home vs. Rome Emperors (Braves)

The Renegades basically had the exact opposite week as Somerset. They got off to a bad start, going 1-3 heading into the weekend before back-to-back wins on Fourth of July weekend to salvage a sweep. Sunday’s game was especially thrilling, as Hudson Valley blew a 4-3 lead in the ninth, but rallied to come back on a massive walk-off homer by Kyle West.

Wilson Rodriguez, a former 18th-round pick out of Puerto Rico, has silently become their best and most consistent hitter, carrying an offense that’s struggling. Kaeden Kent is still around .300, but he’s not slugging much and just hit the shelf with an injury. Enmanuel Tejada has struggled of late, Kyle West hasn’t made enough contact around his light-tower power, and guys like Roderick Arias and Camden Troyer are the human embodiment of hot and cold.

Bryce Cunningham (5.2 IP, 5 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 1 K) took a step back in his Tuesday start, struggling with command. Luis Serna and Allen Facundo had identical starts, each allowing four runs over six innings. Franyer Herrera and Sean Paul Liñan scuffled, but there was some progress in one regard this week as 2025 sixth-round pick Rory Fox allowed just one run in 5.2 innings in another strong start.

The bullpen was good all week. Wilmy Sanchez and Bryce Warrecker got big outs, with the latter continuing a terrific season that’s seen him pitch to a 1.64 ERA in 22 innings across two levels. A few of them got screwed over with shoddy defense, like with what happened to Jack Sokol on Sunday when he “blew” the ninth inning with three unearned runs.

Players of Note:

Kaeden Kent: .302/.359/.433, 6 HR, 43 RBI, 28 XBH, 20 SB, 107 wRC+
Core Jackson: .248/.344/.452, 10 HR, 37 RBI, 23 SB, 106 wRC+
Wilson Rodriguez: .262/.381/.437, 8 HR, 42 RBI, 18 SB, 116 wRC+
Luis Serna: 3-4, 4.18 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, 16.4 K-BB% (71 IP)
Bryce Cunningham: 2-4, 4.19 ERA, 5.44 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 9.3 K-BB% (43 IP)

Single-A Tampa Tarpons

Record: 11-4 (46-35), 2.5 GA in the Florida State League West after a 5-1 week against the St. Lucie Mets (Mets)

Run differential: +21 (+44)

Coming up: Home vs. Clearwater Threshers (Phillies)

Tampa keeps cooking. They won three games via shutout and dominated from Tuesday to Saturday with five consecutive wins before a bullpen collapse spoiled the sweep on Sunday. They led 5-1 after seven before allowing nine runs in two innings.

They’re doing it mostly with pitching, but don’t confuse that with bad offense. Sure, they’re no longer getting carried by the likes of Jackson Lovich and Hans Montero while Luis Escudero’s hot bat is on the shelf. It’s the depth of the lineup with guys like Luis Puello behind the plate, JoJo Jackson in the outfield, Logan Maxwell returning from injury, and a blistering hot bat from 2025 UDFA David McCann:

Onto the pitching, which is downright incredible. Justin West got things started with 5.2 shutout innings on Tuesday, followed by Thatcher Hurd (5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K) completing five innings for the first time as a pro on Wednesday. JT Etheridge followed up Wyatt Parliament’s mediocre start on Thursday with four shutout innings as a piggyback; Henry Lalane continued to be incredible on Friday; Tyler Boudreau tossed a quality start on Saturday, and Brennan Stuprich tossed four strong innings on Sunday.

The bullpen was inconsistent. Jose M. Rodriguez continued to impress, now holding a 2.51 ERA in 32.1 innings with 45 strikeouts, but a blowup on Sunday soils a lot of numbers for his teammates. Brian Hendry continued his rehab with 1.1 innings on Wednesday, and I’m curious what the team’s plan is for him. He’s already 26 but has dominated in the limited time he’s been on the mound. I’d compare him to Brendan Beck from a few years ago, but his stuff is quite a bit better.

Players of Note:

Jackson Lovich: .284/.357/.513, 14 HR, 52 RBI, 30 XBH, 20 SB, 127 wRC+
Bryce Martin-Grudzielanek: .258/.368/.413, 9 HR, 37 RBI, 25 SB, 112 wRC+
Hans Montero: .238/.363/.426, 8 HR, 40 RBI, 27 XBH, 21 SB, 114 wRC+
Tyler Boudreau: 4-2, 3.31 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 1.09 WHIP, 19.7 K-BB% (68 IP)
Henry Lalane: 4-1, 2.74 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 0.99 WHIP, 23.9 K-BB% (62.1 IP)

FCL Yankees

Record: 23-24, 7 GB in the FCL North after a 2-3 week.

Run differential: +14

The FCL Yankees are all but dead in the playoff race, sitting five games behind the wild-card spot occupied by the FCL Orioles with just 13 games to go. The bats cooled off this week, but Wilberson De Pena and Dexters Peralta continue to be the two most prolific home run hitters in all of rookie ball.

Blake Gillespie’s season is likely over due to injury, so the rotation is just a hodgepodge right now. Jerson Alejandro, a mountain of a man at 6-foot-6, 255 pounds, has re-emerged after injuries but is struggling. Sabier Marte continues to slowly improve, while Austin Breedlove and Edinzo Marquez are dominating in the bullpen.

Players of Note:

Wilberson De Pena: .342/.399/.663, 13 HR, 53 RBI, 31 XBH, 18 SB, 148 wRC+
Jose Castro: .297/.492/.538, 6 HR, 24 RBI, 25 SB, 158 wRC+
Richard Matic: .309/.427/.481, 20 XBH, 27 RBI, 14 SB, 126 wRC+
Sabier Marte: 34.1 IP, 5.77 ERA, 4.85 FIP, 1.46 WHIP, 16.3 K-BB%
Austin Breedlove: 21 IP, 1.71 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 18.0 K-BB%

DSL Yankees & Bombers

DSL Yankees:
Record: 15-10, 0.5 GB in DSL East after a 3-2 week
Run differential: +94

DSL Bombers:
Record: 11-15, 6 GB in DSL Southeast after a 2-4 week
Run differential: -26

Did you know the DSL Yankees have the best run differential of any Dominican affiliate? They’ve won by some truly comical margins with a ferocious offense powered by Isaias Castillo and Juan Torres, but have lost some brutal close games. That first week of the season where they seemed to choke every other game away in the late innings hurts.

Not much is going on with the Bombers, who have seven-figure prospect Mani Cedeno struggling. It’s still early in his pro career, but the more the last few classes of international prospects struggle, the more you understand why Danny Rowland was canned when he was, sacrificing the most recent international class.

Players of Note:

Isaias Castillo: .330/.444/.699, 8 HR, 27 RBI, 20 XBH, 10 SB, 159 wRC+ (124 PA)
Juan Torres: .373/.436/.686, 5 HR, 33 RBI, 20 XBH, 11 SB, 151 wRC+ (117 PA)
Stiven Marinez: .289/.420/.567, 5 HR, 30 RBI, 18 SB, 145 wRC+ (119 PA)
Fredy Penuelas: 20.1 IP, 0.44 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 1.03 WHIP, 26.8 K-BB%
Yunior Jerez: 20.2 IP, 3.05 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 0.87 WHIP, 17.7 K-BB%

Prospect of the Week: Henry Lalane

Weekly Stats: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 11 K
Season Stats: 4-1, 2.74 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 0.99 WHIP, 23.9 K-BB% (62.1 IP)

This is now the third time in the last month and a change that we’ve had Lalane as Prospect of the Week, and for good reason. In his most recent dominant start, he was absolutely untouchable in the early innings, eventually racking up 11 strikeouts in another walk-less start. Since May 17, he’s allowed just five earned runs in 42.1 innings with 61 strikeouts to just 10 walks. This is phenomenal stuff.

It’s getting to the point where I actively question if he might be the team’s best starting pitcher prospect. Hess, Cunningham, and Hampton’s stocks are all down this year. ERC is going to graduate in the coming weeks. Lagrange is in the bullpen. There’s real runway to get to Top 100 prospect status with a strong summer from Lalane.

Monday night was a notable game in franchise history for the Dodgers, and not just because the team played their first extra-inning game of 2026, snapping a 91-game stretch that was the second-longest to open a season without playing past nine innings, seven games behind the 2005 Boston Red Sox.

The series opener against the Colorado Rockies was more historical, encompassing the entirety of 143 years as a franchise. Between the regular season and postseason combined, the Dodgers in Brooklyn played 11,109 games. Monday night was the Dodgers’ 11,109th such game since moving to Los Angeles.

The franchise started in Brooklyn in 1884 in the American Association, where they would play for six seasons before joining the National League in 1890.

The World Series as we know it didn’t begin until 1903, but earlier attempts to determine a champion were less series. For example, the Dodgers won the National League in 1890 and played the American Association-champion Louisville Cardinals in the “World’s Championship Series,” but the series ended in a tie (3-3-1) and was never settled. The Dodgers’ only other 19th century postseason was in 1889, when they lost in the postseason to the NL-champion New York Giants, six games to three.

Brooklyn also finished first in the National League in both 1899 and 1900, but had no postseason to play.

In the modern era, the Brooklyn Dodgers played in nine World Series, totaling 56 games. Since moving to Los Angeles, the Dodgers have played in 14 World Series and 79 Fall Classic games, but also 174 other postseason games.

At the moment, 143 years of Dodgers history is perfectly balanced between Brooklyn and Los Angeles.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Orioles fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

More than halfway into the 2026 season, the Orioles have not yet emerged from the disappointing rut they fell into early on. They have avoided the kind of disaster that destroyed their season early last year. That’s something. However, they still have to actually find success. As we experience weekly, they just can’t manage to do this consistently.

In this week’s survey, the question is very simple. Are the Orioles going to figure this thing out and make it into the postseason? Vote below:

The odds are not in their favor as they sit 3.5 games out of the third AL Wild Card spot. At Baseball Reference, the team has a 10.9% chance of getting into the playoffs. FanGraphs currently gives the Orioles a better, but still bad, 19.9% chance of making it. No one would want to have their life or any meaningful amount of money staked on odds ranging from 5-1 to 9-1.

Even after three months of watching these doofuses, and even considering my inherent pessimistic streak, it’s still hard to avoid wondering what this team could look like if just a couple more pieces fall into place. Gunnar Henderson starting to hit like a star again would be the biggest help. Maybe ahead of the trade deadline, Mike Elias will acquire someone useful, sorry, he won’t, I don’t know why I even said that.

The vibes remain confusing. How are you feeling now? Let us know in the comments below.

Following a fantastic 5-1 homestand, the Mariners head to Florida for a six-game road trip during the final week of play before the All-Star break. If they win both of these series, Seattle will effectively match their first-half record from last year — they were 51-45 at the break in 2025. For a season that’s felt so up and down, the M’s really aren’t in such a bad position. They definitely haven’t played up to their talent level, and they’re benefitting from a thoroughly mediocre American League, but FanGraphs gives them the highest odds to win their division of any of the division leaders around the league.

The Marlins were the best team in baseball in the month of June, running a 20-6 record that vaulted them into the thick of the NL Wild Card race. Their pitching staff was characteristically fantastic, allowing just 3.1 runs per game last month. The real surprise has been the offense; they scored 5.1 runs per game in June and their lineup now has a 103 wRC+ on the season. That would be the highest mark in franchise history, and two of the four times the team has had a wRC+ of 99 or higher, it won the World Series. No big deal.

The Marlins don’t have a superstar anchoring their lineup. Instead, they’re benefitting from breakouts from a bunch of their young role players all at the same time. Liam Hicks, Otto Lopez, and Xavier Edwards are the core trio that have been driving the production all season long. The thing all three of them have in common is an excellent approach at the plate and elite bat-to-ball skills. They may not produce the loudest contact, but they rarely strikeout, take their walks, and maximize every ball they put in play. For the loud contact, the Marlins turn to Kyle Stowers. He enjoyed a huge breakout last year but injuries caused him to get off to a slow start this year. Since the beginning of June, he’s posted a 159 wRC+ with eight home runs.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Max Meyer was the Marlins’ number three overall pick in the 2020 draft but has had to overcome a bunch of obstacles en route to his breakout season this year. Tommy John surgery cost him two years of development and he’s struggled with inconsistency and additional injuries since returning from that elbow surgery. He added a sweeper and a sinker to his pitch mix last year, but he’s finally found a feel for that new breaking ball. It’s become his primary pitch alongside his sharp gyro slider and that’s made all the difference. 

The Marlins have essentially been using a four-man rotation for the past month after Janson Junk and Robby Snelling went down with injuries in May. Junk is finally close to returning — he completed a three-inning rehab outing on Saturday — though Miami hasn’t officially announced a starter for Wednesday’s game yet. Junk enjoyed a small breakout last year by honing his command to an elite level; his 2.9% walk rate led all starting pitchers with at least 100 IP last year. He doesn’t really possess a swing-and-miss weapon, though the development of a new changeup this year has given him something to build on.

Tyler Phillips bounced around a few organizations before landing with the Marlins as a multi-inning reliever last year. He saw a little bit of high-leverage work, but was mostly used as a fireman who could eat up a couple of innings before giving way to the setup men or closer. This year, Miami has used him more frequently as a bulk reliever operating behind an opener, though seven of his last eight outings have been traditional starts. He’s got a really weird profile: he has three bat-missing weapons in his two breaking balls and a splitter but he relies too heavily on a mediocre sinker instead of featuring those secondary pitches. The result is far too many balls in play early in the count before he can finish off batters with one of those swing-and-miss pitches.

The Big Picture:

The Rangers wound up dropping the final two games of their series against the Tigers to fall to 1.5 games back in the division; they’ll host the Angels for three games this week. The Astros managed to win their series against the Rays last weekend but dropped the first game of a series in Washington yesterday; they’re now three games back in the division and just 1.5 games back in the Wild Card race. The Athletics are on the verge of dropping entirely out of the playoff picture — they were swept by the Marlins over the weekend and head to Detroit to face the Tigers this week.

One last road trip on deck before the All-Star break, and the Braves are making some roster moves ahead of tonight’s opener in Pittsburgh.

Yesterday it was Eli White, and now reliever Tyler Kinley will hit the paternity list as he welcomes a new addition to the family. Congratulations, Tyler! May the paternal powers bless you and Eli both as they have Michael Harris II and Dylan Lee this season thus far.

The Braves have recalled righty James Karinchak in Kinley’s place. Optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett on Friday, July 3, he had a 2.08 ERA in 8 games with the Braves since having his contract selected on June 10.

Karinchak will share Gwinnett shuttle to the airport with LHP Connor Thomas. A Georgia native and Georgia Tech alum, he was signed to a minor league contract this offseason. Thomas debuted last year and pitched in two games with the Milwaukee Brewers before spending some time on the IL with left elbow arthritis. He began the season on the IL with the Stripers before heading on a rehab assignment in Rome. He has a 1.14 ERA in 10 games / 23.2 innings pitched with Gwinnett. Farewell to Daysbel Hernández, who was released in order to open up the spot on the 40-man.

Owen Murphy’s call-up resulted in a kind of nightmarish scenario last night – he entered in the 10th inning tasked with keeping the game tied with the ghost runner lurking on second base. He got two quick outs, but a double by Luis Torrens drove in the aforementioned ghost runner and a Met he’d clipped with a pitch. The Braves only getting one run back in the bottom of the tenth and leave Murphy on the hook for the loss. A valiant effort by the rookie in a tough situation. But he’s Gwinnett-bound after being optioned in the other side of the move for Thomas.

What will be next on the carousel of arms?

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Tuesday's full MLB schedule offers no shortage of betting opportunities, but not every favorite is worth backing.

After breaking down every matchup, I've narrowed the slate to my favorite MLB picks for July 7, targeting teams with the strongest pitching edges, matchup advantages, and paths to victory.

MLB moneyline picks for July 7

Matchup	Pick
Brewers vs Cardinals	-190
Brewers vs Cardinals	+122
Cubs vs Orioles	-106
Athletics vs Tigers	+190
Braves vs Pirates	+135
Mariners vs Marlins	-115
Yankees vs Rays	-111
Astros vs Nationals	-113
Royals vs Mets	-138
Phillies vs Reds	-160
Guardians vs Twins	-108
Red Sox vs White Sox	+115
Angels vs Rangers	-152
Diamondbacks vs Padres	-113
Blue Jays vs Giants	+104
Rockies vs Dodgers	+245

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 7-7.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 7

Brewers vs Cardinals: Brewers (-190)

Brewers win probability: 66%

I am not getting in the way of a Jacob Misiorowski start in the year of our lord 2026. The man has been absolutely dominant, posting a 0.109 ERA and 0.76 WHIP over his last 5 outings.

On top of that, the Brewers offense has been rolling, producing a 120 wRC+, .344 wOBA, and .783 OPS over their last 12 games.

Give me Milwaukee on the run line. I’m not stepping in front of this train right now.

Brewers vs Cardinals: Cardinals (+122)

Cardinals win probability: 45%

For game two, I will bite on the Red Birds. Their offense has been solid as of late, but I would much rather back them when they are not facing the Brewers ace.

Despite the tough matchup, St. Louis has been swinging a hot bat, posting a 123 wRC+, .344 wOBA, and .781 OPS over their last 6 games.

I think this is a spot where the Cardinals can take advantage of Robert Gasser at home and sneak out a win in the second game of the series.

Cubs vs Orioles: Cubs (-106)

Cubs win probability: 52%

Two pitchers I have no respect for, give me the much hotter offense, which happens to be the Chicago Cubs.

The Orioles have been ice cold at the plate, posting an 82 wRC+, .289 wOBA, .125 ISO, and .640 OPS over their last 12 games. Meanwhile, the Cubs have been absolutely rolling, producing a 132 wRC+, .346 wOBA, and .825 OPS over their last 21 games.

When I do not trust the arms, I will gladly back the hotter lineup. Give me the Cubs in this spot.

Athletics vs Tigers: Athletics (+190)

Athletics win probability: 35%

“But it’s Tarik Skubal Day, but it’s Tarik Skubal Day!!”

I DO NOT CARE!!

I want no part of trusting an offense that has been beyond inconsistent on a day-to-day basis. I would much rather take the value on one of the best offenses in baseball at plus money than hope Skubal can hold them to 1 or 2 runs and pray the Tigers lineup can scrape together enough offense.

Give me the Athletics. Please.

Braves vs Pirates: Braves (+135)

Braves win probability: 42%

Sure, it is Paul Skenes Day, but that is usually the day the Pirates offense decides not to show up.

Meanwhile, the Braves are starting to turn things around at the plate. Over their last 6 games, Atlanta owns a 128 wRC+, .353 wOBA, and .800 OPS.

I am leaning on the trend of the Pirates’ offense disappearing on Paul Skenes Day and backing the Braves in this spot.

Mariners vs Marlins: Marlins (-115)

Marlins win probability: 54%

First off, the Marlins are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now, while the Mariners are ICE COLD.

Over their last 21 games, Seattle owns a .114 ISO, .617 OPS, and an 80 wRC+. On the other side, Miami has been rolling, posting a 139 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .217 ISO, and .849 OPS during that same stretch.

Max Meyer should be able to do enough on the mound, while the Marlins’ offense continues to take advantage of a struggling Mariners lineup and get on top of Bryan Woo.

Yankees vs Rays: Rays (-111)

Rays win probability: 48%

I am still riding the Yankees fade wagon until further notice. They have been an absolute ice cube, posting a 50 wRC+, .550 OPS, and .247 wOBA over their last 6 games.

On top of that, Will Warren has struggled over his last 5 starts, owning a 5.13 xERA and 1.64 WHIP.

Meanwhile, the Rays are playing some of their best baseball and offer value in this spot. Give me Tampa Bay.

Astros vs Nationals: Nationals (-111)

Nationals win probability: 52%

A lot of people think this is going to be another spot where Astros right-hander Tatsuya Imai shoves, especially with the elevated strikeout numbers he has posted in his most recent starts.

However, the underlying numbers still raise concerns. Over his last 5 outings, Imai owns a 7.11 ERA while allowing a 43.48% hard-hit rate and 13% barrel rate.

The Nationals' offense has been producing plenty of hard contact and has been swinging the bat extremely well. I will continue riding with the hometown team in this spot.

Royals vs Mets: Mets (-138)

Mets win probability: 58%

After the Royals finally came out of their coma and took apart Cristopher Sánchez yesterday afternoon, I want no part of them in this matchup against the Mets.

Two questionable arms take the mound, and in a spot like this, I am going to side with the clearly better offense. New York has been rolling over their last 21 games, posting a 110 wRC+, 10% walk rate, and .323 wOBA.

When the pitching matchup does not separate the teams, I will back the lineup I trust more.

Give me the Mets.

Phillies vs Reds: Phillies (-160)

Phillies win probability: 62%

One of the most swing-happy teams in baseball takes on one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game, and I will gladly ride with the Phillies after a brutal Monday afternoon.

The Reds send out Andrew Abbott, who owns a 4.75 ERA at home, against a powerful Phillies lineup that can punish mistakes. With Abbott on the mound in a hitter-friendly park, I fully expect some baseballs to leave the yard this evening.

Give me Zack Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies to bounce back.

Guardians vs Twins: Twins (-108)

Twins win probability: 52%

Despite Taj Bradley being the easiest punching bag known to man, he is still a very good strikeout pitcher, and the Guardians have been way too swing-happy as of late.

Over their last 6 games, Cleveland owns a 27% strikeout rate as a team while generating just a 6% barrel rate and 36.8% hard-hit rate.

Meanwhile, the Twins offense has been absolutely howling, posting a 137 wRC+, .366 wOBA, and .842 OPS over their last 21 games.

I think Minnesota is the far better team in this matchup.

Red Sox vs White Sox: White Sox (+115)

White Sox win probability: 46%

Death. Taxes. Take the White Sox at plus money.

Sure, Noah Schultz has not been lights out this season, but neither has Payton Tolle, who has been allowing a ton of hard contact while giving hitters plenty of opportunities to elevate the baseball.

The difference here is the offense. The White Sox have been the better lineup, producing plenty of hard contact and barrels over their last 21 games.

At plus money, I am backing the hotter offense and riding with Chicago.

Angels vs Rangers: Rangers (-153)

Rangers win probability: 60%

Another ice-cold team, the Los Angeles Angels, bring an offense that has completely disappeared lately. Over their last 12 games, they own a 69 wRC+, .266 wOBA, and .593 OPS.

On top of that, José Soriano has fallen off a cliff since May, creating a tough spot against a Rangers lineup that has started to find its rhythm.

Meanwhile, Jacob deGrom takes the mound for Texas and has been nails at home. With the better pitcher and a hotter offense, I will gladly back the Rangers in this matchup.

Diamondbacks vs Padres: Padres (-113)

Padres win probability: 53%

Zac Gallen is on the mound. Give me the Friars.

Gallen has been getting crushed over his last 3 starts, posting an 11.02 ERA, 8.24 xERA, and 1.71 WHIP while allowing a 15.38% barrel rate to opposing hitters.

Meanwhile, San Diego’s offense has been humming over the last week, and I fully expect them to take advantage of Gallen’s recent struggles.

Give me the Padres to get all over his offerings this evening.

Blue Jays vs Giants: Giants (+104)

Giants win probability: 49%

I am not the biggest believer in the Giants, but with Patrick Corbin on the mound this evening for the Blue Jays, who have been a walking corpse over the last few weeks, I have to back San Francisco.

The Giants have been the more efficient offense over the last month, and they also hold the advantage on the mound in this matchup.

Better lineup, better arm, give me the Giants.

Rockies vs Dodgers: Rockies (+245)

Rockies win probability: 29%

Purely off price, nobody should be laying -251 in this spot. Are the Dodgers a better team than the Rockies? On paper, absolutely. But at that number, the value is gone.

Over their last 6 games, Colorado’s offense has actually been performing at a much higher rate statistically. On top of that, left-hander Justin Wrobleski has shown a tendency to allow hard contact, creating opportunities for the Rockies lineup.

At +245, I think Colorado is a very live underdog and worth a look.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Let me say, before you read any further, that this is definitely a first world problem, not that big a deal in the grand scheme of things.

And I’ve written about this before, most recently in April 2025.

The scoreboard photo above brought this idea back to me. This is how the “AMERICAN” side of the board looked on Monday, June 29, the first day of the Cubs series against the Padres last week.

If you are reading this article on a computer, you can probably see the difference between “LOS ANGELES (NL)” and “LOS ANGELES (AL)”. But if you’re on your phone — or, more importantly, sitting 400+ feet away from the board at Wrigley Field, you probably can’t tell which L.A. team was playing at the A’s, and which one was at the Mariners.

I’m a bit closer to the board than most at Wrigley from my perch in the left field bleachers and even I had to enlarge that photo before I figured out that the Dodgers were playing in West Sacramento and the Angels were at Seattle.

And as you can see, there’s already a team name there (“ATHLETICS”). The Cubs, as the home team at Wrigley, also have their team name on the board. In fact, this is how the bottom left of the board looked in early June when the Cubs hosted the A’s:

Most websites and apps now show MLB teams with their team names instead of the cities. Here, for example, is the top of the scoreboard page on the MLB app for today’s games:

So get with the program, Cubs. Next time the board is painted, replace city names with team names. It’s cleaner looking, will clearly identify the Los Angeles (and New York) teams and matches what most fans see in other places.

Oh, and one more thing. What on Earth is this?

And by “this,” I mean — why is there a serif on the “1” indicating the starting pitcher? At no other place on the board do any of the number “1”s have a serif. This was added when the board was re-painted a year ago. It looks like a mistake to me. While you’re changing to team names, Cubs, get rid of that serif.

That concludes my TED talk for today. Carry on.

The Boston Red Sox have been the beneficiary of superb starting pitching in 2026.

Ranger Suarez has a 3.15 ERA and was just named to the group’s lone 2026 MLB All-Star. Sonny Gray should and probably will be joining him, but can take solace in the fact that he has a 2.61 ERA. Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, and Jake Bennett, three rookies who have exceeded any and all expectations placed upon them, are rocking respective 3.39, 3.34, and 3.10 ERAs.

If you’ve been paying attention, though, you would know that the club’s current five-man rotation isn’t going to last much longer…

I’ve decided to take a look at each of the five men who are currently pitching their balls off for the hometown club and figure out what their next steps are — with several approaching uncharted waters, others currently dealing with injuries, and one likely to be the most coveted arm at the trade deadline.

SONNY GRAY

Gray has been absolutely phenomenal, as he is currently riding a streak of seven consecutive quality starts and hasn’t allowed more than three runs since April 14 against the Minnesota Twins.

GOOD!

Gray is also going to be the most coveted arm on the trading block.

NOT GOOD!

ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan included him at No. 11 on their list of players most likely to be moved at the trade deadline, though they admitted: “Gray’s restructured contract after his trade from St. Louis to Boston includes a $10 million buyout on a $30 million mutual option for 2027. Considering mutual options don’t get picked up, that is a pricey deadline acquisition, leaving Boston somewhat hamstrung unless it’s willing to pay down a significant portion and convince Gray to accept a deal.”

RANGER SUAREZ

Suarez is sticking around, though he might soon be spending time on the injured list, having left his start against the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday. The Red Sox have already started to prepare for his potential absence, activating Patrick Sandoval from the injured list on Monday — with the expectation that he’ll start on Thursday.

CONNELLY EARLY

Early is already on the injured list, and will get a second opinion this week will be with Dr. Keith Meister in Arlington, Texas.

JAKE BENNETT

Bennett is the most interesting case on the list, as he has been phenomenal since getting the call to the big leagues but just hit a career-high in innings pitched, as he is sitting at 80.0 across his time with Triple-A Worcester and Boston — recently surpassing the 75.1 he finished with in 2025.

Bennett is just two years removed from suffering an elbow injury that required him to undergo Tommy John surgery in mid-September 2023.

If they view him as a long-term option, they might want to make some difficult decisions.

PAYTON TOLLE

Tolle, too, is hovering around a career-high in innings pitched — with the flamethrowing left-hander sitting at 89.1 in 2025 after finishing with 91.2 in 2026.

Boston probably isn’t rushing to shut him down, but perhaps they start working in extra rest days in order to help him last the entire season.