Michael King, like his last time out, was hurt by the long ball when he and the San Diego Padres played the Chicago White Sox at the Peoria Sports Complex on Thursday. Fortunately for King, the Padres had their full compliment of All-Star players in their lineup, and they were able to overcome the White Sox and earn a 13-6 win.

King allowed three runs in the first inning, two of which came on a two-run home run by Lamonte Wade Jr., a run in the second inning on a sacrifice fly and two runs in the fifth inning which came on back-to-back home runs by Curtis Mead and Wade Jr., and left the game after five innings of work with the score tied 6-6.

San Diego exploded for seven runs in the bottom of the eighth inning. Jake Cronenworth hit a bases clearing double after three consecutive walks to start the inning and Jackson Merrill followed two batters later with a ground-rule double to put the Padres up 10-6. Ty France followed Merrill and with two runners on, he again cleared the bases with a three-run home run to give San Diego a 13-6 lead en route to the win.

The Padres return to action today with a meeting against the Los Angeles Dodgers at 6:05 p.m.

Padres News:

• With Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mason Miller back at the Peoria Sports Complex after their time with their World Baseball Classic teams, both players were asked about the matchup that could have happened when the Domincan Republic faced the US in the semi-final. Miller got the third and final out of the game while Tatis stood in the on-deck circle leaving everyone to wonder, “What would have happened?”  

• Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune focused his report on Padres reliever Jeremiah Estrada and the motivation he has to be successful with San Diego after his departure from the Chicago Cubs.

• Padres.TV color analyst Mark Grant signed and extension with the San Diego organization that will ensure he and play-by-play announcer Don Orsillo remain in the booth, together, for years to come.

Baseball News:

• The Spring Breakout Series started Thursday and several games were played, giving top prospects a chance to showcase their abilities. One of those players delivered a 101-mph fastball, at 18 years old, to the No. 5 MLB prospect.

• Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Trey Yesavage, who burst onto the scene in the 2025 playoffs, is set to open the season on the IL.

• The 2026 WBC final between the US and Venezuela was the most-watched final in the history of the tournament.

• The Pittsburgh Pirates made the obvious a reality by announcing Paul Skenes as their Opening Day starter.

Analytics has any number of practical uses, but the best and original use is to verify feelings that we may have when we watch the games. Emotional responses are often rife with bias. We often remember what we want to remember and forget what we want to forget so that we can forward the narrative we have built up in our minds. As you can see by the title, we are looking at Astros efficiency. So, what exactly is efficiency?

To explain it simply, it is the percentage of runners that end up crossing home plate. However, one of the things we have neglected when looking at efficiency is the pitching end of it. The best numbers are numbers that serve as a mirror image of each other. If it is good for a high percentage of runners to score then it is also good if we prevent a high percentage of runners from scoring.

We call this segment the lab because the numbers are what they are, but the key comes in how we interpret them. So, we end up running a bit of an experiment where we set up a hypothesis and test it. In this case, we would postulate that good teams plate a higher percentage of their runners and prevent a higher percentage of the other team’s runners. For our purposes, base runners can be interpreted as hits + walks + hit by pitches. Obviously, we have situations where runners also reach on errors and fielder choices, but it is usually best to keep this as simple as possible.

So, if our hypothesis is correct then the teams with the highest run differentials would also have the positive gaps in efficiency. So, we will set up our table with runs scored and runs allowed, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, and run and efficiency differential. We know that teams with higher run differentials are the better teams. Will they also have higher positive differentials in efficiency? Let’s find out.

Offensive vs. Defensive Efficiency

If you felt like the Astros were leaving a small village on base last season then your perceptions were backed up by the numbers. Their .358 efficiency rating was the worst in the World Series era. This becomes particularly acute when you look at the aggregate numbers over the time period. The pitching side saw worse years than last year, but the net result had the first negative differential in the time period.

Our hypothesis was that the best teams would have the best efficiency differential. There wasn’t a perfect correlation here because there never are in human endeavors. However, the club had four seasons with a +200 or better run differential. Three out of four of those seasons also were amongst the four best efficiency differentials. The notable exception was 2017 which saw the fourth best efficiency differential, but the fifth best run differential. That’s still pretty damn close.

The null hypothesis would suggest that efficiency is more or less dumb luck. It would be the intellectual equivalent of Lou Brown (from “Major League”) uttering, “I know he hasn’t done much against this guy, but I gotta hunch he’s due.” Serendipity is certainly a thing, but it also is not an action plan. The more intelligent fan out there would call that regression to the mean. In essence, as an analyst I have always considered intangibles to be something we haven’t figured out how to measure yet.

We used to consider clutch hitting an intangible. We used to consider pitch framing an intangible. Over time we figured out how to measure it. In short, the more you can measure the less uncertainty there is. When you can minimize the unknown you can also minimize risk. As the correlation above shows, you can’t completely eliminate it, but you can minimize it.

What do these numbers mean?

I start by looking at the hitting and pitching numbers independently. Do we see any patterns? The offensive numbers have more patterns than the pitching numbers. They simply fell off the side of the cliff the last two seasons. This is probably the main reason why the hitting coaches were jettisoned. The hope is that new voices can make them more efficient.

On the pitching side, the numbers were more scattershot. 2018 and 2022 stick out like a sore thumb in a positive sense. 2018 was the single best pitching season for any American League team since the DH was instituted in 1973 up to that point. 2022 was obviously both even better and the World Series season with the best bullpen in franchise history. The other seasons saw them give up 640 or more runs and all of them had efficiency ratings between a .352 and .383 in efficiency.

Given those parameters, the 2025 staff exists at around the midpoint. The staff loses Framber Valdez, but hopes to be better with better health and more depth. I hate to keep beating this drum, but the key to the season will come at the plate. The aggregate in the time period for offensive efficiency was .394. That seems like a tall order to get to, but if the team can get back to a ,375 efficiency then that would have been 718 runs scored with the same number of base runners. That is an extra 32 runs on the season. Most sabermetricians look at ten runs as being the win mark, So, that’s an extra three wins. The Astros win the AL West with three wins. That’s especially true if one of them comes against the Mariners. Obviously, it’s a lot easier said than done. Ultimately, we are simply explaining something mathematically that we see with our own eyes and feel emotionally. Will the Astros get back on the right side of the efficiency battle? What do you think?

Good morning, LSB.

Kennedi Landry writes that Andrew McCutchen has shown he’s still got it and is on his way to making the team.

Jeff Wilson says the battle for the Rangers 5th rotation spot pits stuff vs. the little things.

Shawn McFarland has observations in which Jake Latz made his final start of spring training.

Josh Jung appears to be ready to go for opening day.

Yolfran Castillo is No. 5 on the Rangers’ prospect countdown.

And the latest guest on Evan Grant’s SportsDay Rangers podcast is one Ian Michael Kinsler.

That’s all for this morning. Happy Friday.

The Detroit Tigers have gone a long time without finding a big time player in the international free agent market. There have been signs of life from Wenceel Pérez and Keider Montero, and fourth ranked prospect Josue Briceño, but they’re still waiting for a star player to emerge. Teenaged outfielder Cris Rodriguez may be be their best hope.

The Tigers inked Rodriguez to a $3,197,500 contract as the lead member of their January 2025 signing class. The Dominican native had just turned 17 years old, yet he went out to the Dominican Summer League last year and had a really good season. Since Al Avila starting committing serious dollars to top IFA talent late last decade, most of the big names have been disappointments. Scott Harris and his staff have built an outstanding track record in the draft of snatching up the top prep hitters and proving correct, so times have changed. Hopefully, Rodriguez will prove another example of their prowess in evaluating teenaged hitters.

As a 17-year-old, Rodriguez hit 10 home runs in 50 games in the DSL, striking out a very reasonable 22.3 percent of the time. He didn’t walk much and he chased a lot, so there’s a long way to go. Rodriguez has the same power potential as a Junior Caminero but isn’t tracking as a hitter to the same degree. At least it’s comforting that Caminero was a pretty aggressive free-swinger at that age as well. Still Rodriguez’s well advanced raw power and sound swing with natural loft were death to fastballs, and he hit the ball very hard, very often. The young outfielder is already a pretty strong 6’3”, 203 pounds, but he’s still fairly lean with the frame to add another 20 pounds of good muscle. There’s a good chance he’ll boast 70 grade raw power by the time he’s in his 20’s.

In the outfield, Rodriguez can handle center field, but his speed is pretty average and he may lose a step as he fills out. Reports suggest that he has work to do to improve his jumps and route running, but that he’s a pretty sound defender who closes on the ball well and makes plays. That’s a pretty good foundation at his age. His plus arm makes him a good fit in right field, and that seems like his natural position. There’s a good chance that he’s at least an average corner outfielder in a few year’s time even if he ends up losing a little speed.

Per FanGraphs, Rodriguez EV90 in the DSL was 108 mph, which is pretty wild. His ten percent best balls in play by exit velocity averaged similar numbers to the hardest hit balls of Kerry Carpenter’s career, and again, he was 17 years old at the time. Rodriguez hit a ball 113 mph at his best last summer. The lack of an approach at the plate gives one pause, but it’s a big advantage just in pure hitting terms to have level of batspeed with the potential for more to come.

As with all young hitters, the issues to track in the years ahead are plate discipline, ability to recognize spin and offspeed, and development of his swing. Rodriguez chased out of the zone a whole lot in the DSL despite all the damage he did, and that’s going to have to improve rapidly as he plays Complex League ball this season. He’s still going to be facing a lot of wild young pitchers, and a 5.9 percent walk rate again would be pretty egregious. He hasn’t faced too much in the way of quality breaking stuff either, but that’s just par for the course at his age. It just means he’s young, and a long way from the major leagues.

We haven’t seen him other than a few game clips and BP sessions, so it’s hard to say how he looked at the plate in the DSL overall. FanGraphs notes that his hands fire from a dead stop and as a result he takes a little time to gather power. I take this to mean that he’s still something of a BP swinger without a lot of developed hitting rhythm in game. He’s certainly upright and a little stiff-legged in the box, and will benefit from more strength and flexibility through his hips and legs. Hopefully we’ll get some looks at him this summer if he gets to Single-A, and plenty of eyes will be on him as he makes his stateside debut today in the Spring Breakout game.

It’s hard to say much more. Rodriguez has enormous power potential and he already shows signs of being a pretty good fastball hitter. Obviously learning to handle guys with multiple plus pitches and good command is another matter, but that’s enough to be pretty excited about him already. It doesn’t hurt that he’s athletic and a good runner for his size even if that speed figures to diminish as he fills out, either. He should be a solid defensive presence, and if he gets to enough power the Tigers will have a pretty good player here. He has future star potential to a degree most prospects do not, so it’s worth ranking him pretty highly already.

Look for a good debut in the Complex League, where he shouldn’t have too much trouble, and a full season move to Single-A ball in 2027. It will be a bit of a treat for prospect watchers to see him in the Spring Breakout game where a lot of the Tigers’ current crop of top hitting prospects have burst onto the scene in the past few years.

After a sojourn as not-quite world conquerors, Logan Webb re-donned the orange-and-black on Thursday, taking the mound in what should be his last Cactus League start before 2026’s Opening Day.

It wasn’t the glorious, dominant return he may have envisioned for himself. Webb stifled international talent across two starts (allowing 1 ER over 8 2/3 IP) on the global stage and earned a nod to the All-WBC team for his efforts, but back in the desert, the Rockies bats bugged and sweated him to no end.

Webb needed 86 pitches to record 13 outs, including a 2nd inning respite, and was bitten for 6 earned runs on 8 hits, a walk, and just 3 strikeouts. In true Webb fashion, 6 of those 8 hits were singles. The two extra-baggers came courtesy of new Western Division addition, Willi Castro, who doubled, then launched a game-tying solo shot in the 6th on the tenth pitch of the at-bat. Rising star Ezequiel Tovar (also named to the All-WBC Tournament team, representing world conquering Venezuela) ended Webb’s night by working an 8-pitch base-on-balls. Expectations are not mile-high for Colorado, but those types of nagging at-bats portend much hair-pulling and frustrated muttering to come for Giants pitchers. Something to look forward too…  

But don’t worry! This isn’t the first time Webb has stumbled off the Spring Training mound only to find his legs in the regular season.

In 2024, his final game in the Cactus League was a 9 ER blow-out against the Cubs, ballooning his ERA to 10.97. Exactly three years prior to Thursday’s start, he gave up 4 runs on 6 hits, including 2 homers, against the Angels. And in his final start before the 2022 regular season, Milwaukee got him for 4 runs on 6 hits again over 4 innings pitched. No alarm bells should be ringing. Nothing out of the ordinary here. If anything Webb seemed to pitch a bit off script, especially in the first couple frames, with a custodial concern for his down-ballot offerings. We saw more cutters and four-seams than you’d expect to see from him (both pitches accounted for 8% of Webb’s mix in 2025), including a first-pitch cut right down the middle to Castro in the 1st. Those pitches are used to raise the eye-line of the batter. They are not standalone features but splashes of color in the bouquet.

Colorado’s elevated rate of contact could be explained too by Webb’s average velocity being down across the board. Not sure why this was the case — perhaps the heat, or if this was by design. But it’s also a helpful reminder that despite his rise-to-prominence as a K-King last year, Webb relies on eliciting certain contact. With that approach, there’s always the risk of an inning like Colorado’s 2nd, in which four consecutive balls in play find holes in the infield and compound into an ugly crooked number. It’s all part of the experience. And if you’re still bothered by the final pitching line, perhaps there’s some solace to find in the fact that two of those six earned runs came when reliever R.J. Dabovich took the mound with two outs in the 2nd. It wasn’t all Webb’s fault! 

Overall, it was a hit-happy kind of day in Arizona. Despite less than ideal pitching and some unfortunate defense in the later innings, the Giants slugged their way to a 14-11 win over the Rockies.

Leadoff man Drew Gilbert got into the swing of things with a 3-hit day including a triple off John Brebbia. Back-up catcher Daniel Susac launched his second homer of Spring off Brebbia in the 4th, and Christian Koss tacked one on later in the frame with his first longball.

Jerar Encarnacion continued to scorch the ball, collecting two hits, including a double and a pair of RBIs. Non-roster invitee Victor Bericoto continued to force the issue of his presence, as he’s done all Spring, with another 2-hit day while bagging his 14th RBI on a 2-out double in the 5th.

Has any young pitcher generated more hype this spring than Carlos Lagrange? The Yankees’ 22-year-old right-hander came into the spring as the organization’s top pitching prospect (or number two, behind Elmer Rodríguez), with MLB Pipeline ranking him 79th, Baseball Prospectus at 61st, and FanGraphs at 73rd. And yet, as spring training winds down, those rankings have begun to look at least somewhat conservative.

2025 Stats (Single-A, Double-A): 24 games (23 starts), 11-8, 3.53 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 120 innings, .353/.457/.441 (159 wRC+), 33.4% K%, 12.3 BB%, 1.20 WHIP

Signed out of the Dominican Republic for just $10,000 in 2022, Lagrange steadily climbed through the Yankees’ farm before breaking out in a big way in 2025. Between eight games in High-A Hudson Valley and 16 with the Double-A Somerset Patriots, he posted a career high in strikeout percentage and innings pitched, along with a career low in walk rate. As the spring began, he drew comparisons to Cam Schlittler, who had a similar breakout in 2024 before emerging as arguably the Yankees’ best starter down the stretch last season.

Then, on the first day of spring training, he struck out Aaron Judge with a 102.6-mph fastball during live BP.

That would be a sign of things to come. In 13.2 innings across four outings (including one start), Lagrange has allowed just two runs on six hits, striking out 13 and walking just four. He has drawn praise from, well, everybody who has seen him. ESPN Jeff Passan wrote late last week, “It wouldn’t surprise me if … Carlos Lagrange is pitching meaningful innings for the Yankees by September — if not sooner.” Dellin Betances, to whom the 6-foot-7 hard-throwing righty has been often compared, believes he “has the ability to be one of the best starters in the game if he continues to work on his craft.”

Judge agrees with that sentiment, and I’m pretty sure if Gerrit Cole had his way, Lagrange would start the season in the Yankees rotation. For his part, Lagrange thinks he would be “ready to compete” and following his most recent outing on Wednesday, catcher Austin Wells affirmed “I don’t have any doubts he could help us right now.”

Obviously, that’s not going to happen. Lagrange will begin the season in the minor leagues, either returning to Dougle-A Somerset or earning a promotion to Triple-A Scranton. The Yankees think very highly of this young righty and they don’t want to rush his development just to get him onto the Opening Day roster. As is common with pitchers of his stature, he is still a bit wild on the mound; as Eric Longenhagen and Brendan Gawlowski of FanGraphs notes, his delivery “features lots of head movement and spinal tilt,” which makes it a bit difficult to find the zone with consistency. The Yankees have enough pitching depth both in the rotation and in the bullpen (even if, as Josh notes, there’s quite a bit of uncertainty in the latter) that there’s no real need to rush Lagrange to start the season; and if they need to tap into their prospect depth for starting pitching, well, Rodríguez is going to get first crack, anyway.

Even so, if all goes well, I would expect Lagrange to get the call to The Show at some point this summer. Ideally, he tightens up his control, reduces his walk rate, and allows his electric stuff — which is already MLB-quality, according to most metrics — and forces the organization to find a spot for him in the rotation some time this summer. But should the summer roll around without a spot in the rotation open, well, the organization hasn’t ruled out using Lagrange as a bullpen weapon down the stretch.

And while that might scare Yankees fans who fear Lagrange following the career arc of Joba Chamberlain, pitching development league-wide has come a long way since then, and Chris Sale, Garrett Crochet, and Michael King are just a few of the numerous starters who completed their development into top-of-the-rotation starters while also working out of the big-league bullpen at to,es. Only time will tell if Lagrange might just join that group.

See more of the Yankees Previews series here.

The Braves have been killing it in Spring Training, but the roster still looks like it could use some upgrades. Some of those upgrades might even come courtesy of players still in other camps at the moment — provided the Braves find something they like.

This hasn’t been a huge source of contribution in years past for this Front Office, but Anibal Sanchez is the big one here. (Also, Jesse Chavez.)

In any case, I realize that the answer to this question depends on whom, exactly, other teams cut, and whether the Braves find those guys of interest, but here’s your chance to make a binary guess as to whether the Opening Day roster includes the likes of Brett Wisely, Kyle Farmer, or Dominic Smith… or whether the Braves ultimately make a move for perhaps a more recognizable name that had little to do with their Grapefruit League success.