WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 19: James Wood #29 of the Washington Nationals is doused with water by teammates Andres Chaparro #87, Luis García Jr. #2 and CJ Abrams #5 after the game against the New York Mets, in which Wood hit an inside the park grand slam home run at Nationals Park on May 19, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It has been a long time coming, but it finally feels like the Washington Nationals have an identity as a team. They are a young and hungry group that can mash and play the game hard. This is also one of those teams that is never out of a game, no matter the deficit.
In the past week, the Nats have erased two 5-0 deficits and have come back to win both games. That never say die attitude has become a staple for this team. Sure, the pitching can be rough at times and they can make some frustrating mistakes in the field, but they can always make up for it with the bat. They are also a hard charging and aggressive team on the bases.
If an opponent is not on their A game, the Nats can make team’s lives miserable. We saw that last night against the Mets. The Nats aggression and tenacity caused the Mets to make multiple mistakes in the field. Nats base runners and hitters were putting pressure on the Mets defense, and eventually they cracked. On another night, the Nats aggression could have bit them and been seen as reckless, but that is just who they are as a team.
After the stench of last season, it is fun to have an identity again. There were times in 2023 and 2024 where it felt like the Nats were beginning to build an identity, but it never stuck. I have faith that this identity can stick. The Nats have a whole new staff and braintrust now. Also, those other teams were never leading baseball in runs scored.
It is wild that we are sitting here on May 20th and the Washington Nationals are leading baseball in runs, and it is not even close. The Nats have scored 271 runs, and the next closest team only has 258. These Nats are scoring over 5.5 runs per game, which is absolutely bonkers.
I remember worrying about the Nats offense when they hit .194 in Spring Training. Little did I know that there was absolutely nothing to worry about with this offense. The duo of James Wood and CJ Abrams has been one of the best in the league and the two youngsters have been the engines of this elite offense.
Speaking of Wood, he had a monster night at the plate. Of course, his signature moment was when he hit an inside the park grand slam in the second inning. That was the moment where the game turned. The game went from a comfortable 5-0 lead for the Mets to a 5-4 ball game. It felt like the Mets clenched up after the Nats immediately erased their big lead. This was Wood’s first grand slam, and he made it an exciting one.
Wood tends to be a pretty even keeled guy, but he was all smiles after that. You could tell when talking to him at his locker that he was in a great mood. He was smiling ear to ear talking about his inside the park grand slam. Wood does not show emotion too much, so it is very exciting when he does come out of his shell like he did last night.
While Wood is not the most emotional guy, part of the Nats identity is based on emotion. You saw it when Richard Lovelady closed out the game. Another time you saw it was when Daylen Lile hit a go ahead homer in Cincinnati last week. This team is young, hungry and having a great time right now. Last season, especially in the second half, this was not a team having a lot of fun. They were beat down after a long season, but they have been rejuvenated by this new staff.
Another part of the Nats offensive identity is their power hitting. They are in the top 10 in home runs after ranking towards the bottom of the league the last few years. Obviously, Wood and Abrams are leading the way there, but it is not just them. Jacob Young is showing power we have not seen from him before. Curtis Mead and Keibert Ruiz are also showing increased pop. Jose Tena is another guy who has been hitting lasers, and we saw that tonight when he went deep.
Despite having that home run power, this is not a home run reliant offense either. This team has mastered the art of the double this season. They have 98 doubles this season, which is the most in all of baseball. Under new hitting coach Matt Borgschulte, Nats hitters have loved shooting gaps and driving guys in via the double.
Obviously, they lost due to a 12th inning implosion the other night, but that was a great example of the Nats double heavy offense. They were able to score plenty of runs without homering. This was able to happen because the Nats hit six doubles, all from different players. James Wood, CJ Abrams, Daylen Lile and Keibert Ruiz all have at least 10 doubles on the season.
For a young, fast team, it is fitting that doubles are a part of their identity. The Nats play such an exciting brand of baseball. Obviously it is not a perfect brand of baseball, and as this team matures, they need to clean some things up. However, as a Nats fan, all I could ask for this year is a team that is fun to watch. That is what we have been given in Blake Butera’s first year as manager. They are not a great, or even good team yet, but the Washington Nationals are an exciting team to watch and have a clear identity.
The Knicks seemed dead in the water. After a cold shooting night and an out-of-sorts defensive performance through three-and-a-half quarters, the Knicks were down 93-71 to the Cleveland Cavaliers with just 7 minutes and 52 seconds remaining in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals.
After the wondrous comeback, there are three keys to think about ahead of Game 2 on Thursday.
Brunson Burner
What else is there to say about Brunson? The Knicks' All-Star had 38 points, five rebounds, and six assists in Game 1. He took over the fourth quarter and overtime, scoring 17 points.
As he hunted James Harden to defend him on switches, Brunson became the conductor, directing where everyone was on the court. By the final possessions of the fourth quarter, he forced Cleveland to double-team him, leading to three-pointers from Mikal Bridges and Landry Shamet.
Though there’s always been some criticism toward his defense, and his reliance on isolation basketball, it’s clear that Brunson is still one of the best shot-creators in the NBA. His excellent footwork and dribble moves are impressive. And he has great touch.
Everything went wrong for the Knicks in this game. They couldn’t knock down a three for much of it, Karl-Anthony Towns struggled to find a rhythm, and the defense waxed and waned. But Brunson’s performance was an example of how a star can steer a team to a win regardless of the situation.
Bad blitz
The Knicks have often benefited from an aggressive defensive style during these playoffs. In the first round against the Atlanta Hawks, blitzing CJ McCollum proved to be the ultimate trump card. In the second round, New York slowed down guard Tyrese Maxey with the strategy.
But the Conference Finals might be the time for the team to dial back the overhelping. Cleveland’s guards Harden and Donovan Mitchell were both ready for the blitz, throwing pocket passes to the screener, who then would often find an open shooter from three.
Cleveland didn’t overwhelm the Knicks from outside, shooting just 16-for-50 (32 percent) from the three-point line. Still, the Cavs have a dangerous pairing of outside shooters in Max Strus and Sam Merrill. Giving those players and the likes of Evan Mobley wide open three-point looks seems like a recipe for disaster.
New York went to the blitz less after the disastrous third quarter. How the Knicks defend Mitchell and Harden in the pick-and-roll will be a must-watch for Game 2.
Less Hart
Josh Hart is the heart and soul of the Knicks, but this might be a series where we see less of the wing. Hart’s role in this series was always going to be a major question. As expected, Cleveland had center Jarrett Allen defend him for much of the contest.
That strategy mucked up the paint for the Knicks. Hart was a -23 in 31 minutes on Tuesday night. He did have 13 points, but he was just 1-for-5 from the three-point line. Allen lurked on the backline as a rim-protector all night.
New York’s run in the fourth quarter and overtime happened mostly with Hart on the bench, though he did step in for a couple of defensive possessions.
Hart has been an important piece to this Knicks team the last few years, but it makes sense to go with high-volume three-point shooters Shamet or Miles McBride, who garner more respect on the perimeter.
"I like to hold my timeouts," Atkinson said after the game. "I didn't want to have one timeout at the end of the game, one- or two-point game. I tried to hold them.
"They hit some really tough shots in that fourth quarter. We got a little unlucky, quite honestly.
"My only regret, and this can happen when you get a little fatigued, I think it just stopped moving. We were pinging the ball all over the place, great ball movement, and then it just got a little stagnant."
The Cavaliers led 93-71 with 7:50 left in the fourth quarter. During the next 12 minutes of action, Cleveland scored a grand total of 11 points.
Even with a near-historic collapse, Cavaliers star guard Donovan Mitchell doesn't seem to be worried about it and insists the team will be ready for Game 2 on Thursday, May 21.
"It's the same. It's one loss," Mitchell said. "We've had some tough ones, but it's one loss. It's not like that loss gives them two or three games, right? It's one. So we have an opportunity to come back here in two days and steal one here, and that's really all it is.
"If you allow yourself to go down that path, you won't be ready for Game 2. So that's pretty much the mindset."
TORONTO, CANADA - MAY 08: Aerial view of the Toronto skyline with CN Tower, Rogers Centre and downtown skyscrapers on May 8, 2026 in Toronto, Canada. (Photo by Florian Gaertner/Photothek via Getty Images) | Photothek via Getty Images
Hickory starter Moises Morales allowed five runs in six innings, including three home runs, striking out two and walking one. Michael Trausch threw a scoreless inning, striking out two and walking one.
Josh Springer was 4 for 5 with two doubles. Yolfran Castillo was 2 for 5 with a homer. Paulino Santana doubled. Hector Osorio doubled and homered. Marcos Torres had a hit and a walk. Dewar Tovar was 3 for 4 with a homer. Daniels Flames had a hit.
Aidan Curry had an excellent start for Hub City, going six shutout innings with nine Ks and three walks. Joey Danielson struck out one in a scoreless inning.
Malcolm Moore’s hot streak continued, as he doubled twice and homered. Paxton Kling and Yeison Morrobel each had a pair of hits.
Frisco starter Josh Trentadue had another rough outing, giving up three homers in three innings, and seven runs overall, while striking out three and walking one.
Dylan Dreiling was 2 for 4 with a walk and a stolen base. Arturo Disla doubled and homered.
For Round Rock, Alexis Diaz struck out two in a scoreless inning. Emiliano Teodo threw a scoreless inning, with 11 strikes out of 19 pitches, striking out one, walking one and allowing two hits.
Cam Cauley had two walks and a stolen base. Aaron Zavala tripled and drew two walks.
It's a getaway slate with lots of potential rain spots on the board. The hot weather has come and gone, so digging for some home run gems and MLB player props means circling the few HR-plus matchups.
The HR potential in Anaheim today might be the best on the board, with both offenses - highlighted by Mike Trout and Nick Kurtz - needing a piece of the HR pie.
These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Wednesday, May 20.
UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
Player to hit a HR
Odds
Mike Trout
+316
Willy Adames
+557
Nick Kurtz
+340
💲Today's HR parlay
+10466
Home run pick: Mike Trout (+316)
I'm kicking myself for avoiding Mike Trout yesterday in a good spot, but at a sub-300 pricetag, it was a pass. That won't be the case today at +316 with a fair price at +280. Trout snapped a 12-game HR drought last night in Anaheim, and his swing speed is not dropping as we enter the Summer months of the season, which can be a worry for the oft-injured outfielder.
Trout gets Aaron Civale, who is a bottom-25 starter in BlastCont% and a pitcher he has already taken deep in a small six-at-bat sample. He isn't the only Halo projecting +EV, as Zach Neto (+433) and Jo Adell (+399) are also on the list. Neto has been crushing, and I bet Adell in yesterday's MLB picks, so the day-after theory is in full effect.
With a lot of rain on the slate, 6-mph winds blowing out to center with mid-70-degree temperatures are creating one of the better hitting environments with a pair of bad bullpens.
Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
Where to watch: ABTV, NBCSCA
Home run pick: Willy Adames (+557)
I have Merrill Kelly ranked as one of the worst starters on the board today. He gets hit hard, his fly balls leave the yard, and the expected metrics suggest the damage is fully deserved. He’s also coming off a complete game, and that recent two-start stretch against weaker offenses feels due for a hard correction. Just three starts ago, he was carrying a 9.95 ERA with six home runs allowed over a 19-inning span.
Willy Adames is the target today, and Rafael Devers was unfortunately left off the card yesterday despite getting plenty of consideration. Adames has logged 25 at-bats against Kelly, which is a meaningful sample and gives the hitter a sizeable information edge. He’s already taken him deep twice and owns a .946 OPS in the matchup.
Adames has homered in back-to-back games and has an extra-base hit in four of his last five. I’m backing the hot bat in what could be the best starting pitcher matchup on the board, especially with potential weather concerns hanging over the Zack Littell spot.
Time: 3:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: DBACKS.TV, NBCS BA
Home run pick: Nick Kurtz (+340)
Nick Kurtz is climbing the AL MVP odds board and now sits as the No. 5 betting favorite at +2200. Over the last two weeks, he owns the third-fastest swing speed in baseball behind Junior Caminero and Jordan Walker, while also ranking inside the Top 20 in both ISO and slugging percentage. He’s coming off a 3-for-5 game in Anaheim and should get a full nine innings against some of the worst pitching in baseball.
Jack Kochanowicz is a pitch-to-contact arm with poor BlastContact numbers and is coming off a three-home-run outing at home against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
His bullpen is also a massive target, carrying the second-worst ERA in baseball over the last two weeks while dealing with closer issues. The Athletics piled up 15 hits yesterday, including six extra-base knocks.
Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
Where to watch: ABTV, NBCSCA
Josh Inglis' 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 13-80 SU, -12.94 units
Today’s HR parlay
Mike Trout
Bet Now +10466
Willy Adames
Nick Kurtz
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
DETROIT, MI - MAY 17: Gage Workman #99 of the Detroit Tigers looks on during the game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Comerica Park on May 17, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. The Blue Jays defeated the Tigers 4-1. (Photo by Mark Cunningham/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Happy Wednesday, everyone. While there might not be much to celebrate if you’re looking at the Tigers’ place in the standings, we have a little good news to temper the bad in today’s links. For starters, Tarik Skubal is already throwing bullpens, which has to give anyone a glimmer of hope. Plus, the Tigers have played community heroes by visiting a few charities to show support. I’m leading with the good, because Sports Illustrated also wrote an entire article highlighting how the Tigers have become one of the worst teams in baseball, and while we want to be defensive, they raise some valid points.
We also take a look at news around baseball, including the return of Gerrit Cole to the Yankees, and a look at one of the hardest-throwing pitchers in baseball. All that and more in today’s post, so let’s get right into it.
Colt Kieth is having a strong year fueled by a .293 batting average. Yet he hasn’t homered the entire year and has six RBIs in 43 games. Spencer Torkelson, already sent down to the minors once in his career, is carrying a .191 average with 61 strikeouts. Meadows, though injured, hasn’t matured into the player the organization thought he could be and Carpenter has taken a step back from solid production last season.
“Coming to something like this, it transcends baseball.”⁰⁰Former high school teammates Matt Vierling and Jake Burger spent a morning at Gigi's Playhouse Detroit during the Tigers-Rangers series. pic.twitter.com/dfAJ0LM5hW
— Tigers Community (@TigersCommunity) May 18, 2026
"It's incredible to see their resilience and their attitude toward it. Trying to help impact their day in a positive way is special for me."
The Tigers visited survivors at the Children's Hospital of Michigan to meet some of the strongest fans in the game. pic.twitter.com/Jvg9Wv9tsY
CLEARWATER, FL - MARCH 21: Gage Wood #41 of the Philadelphia Phillies pitches during the game between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Philadelphia Phillies at BayCare Ballpark on Saturday, March 21, 2026 in Clearwater, Florida. (Photo by Nathan Ray Seebeck/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The Phillies have gauged Gage’s progress, and they have found much to be impressed with. The young hurler, less than a year removed from his selection in the first round of the draft, has been sent straight from Low-A Clearwater to Double A Reading. That’s a ringing endorsement from the organization. He had been talked about as a potential fast-mover when he was drafted, and the promotion seems to bear that out. He’s two promotions away from joining the Show, and those promotions could come fast.
Today’s question is: WillGage Wood play for the Phillies this season?
Cheering for a lousy baseball team can be a real drag. As the season progresses, the margin for error shrinks. Outcomes become more crucial as the trade deadline creeps into the picture. It’s an unpleasant scenario where wins provide relief instead of joy. Each defeat hurts more and more as the season evolves into death by 1,000 cuts.
Is that a little dramatic? Maybe. But that’s how it felt last season when the Orioles fired Brandon Hyde after a 15-28 start. The team sunk its season by the end of May, and fans were left with a long wait for another chance to compete in 2026.
The Orioles have yet to completely squander another season, but things don’t look great. The heightened frustration comes with a panic that the winning window could be closing before Baltimore achieves any success in the postseason. The Rays and Yankees appear destined for a competitive division race, and the Blue Jays—not the Orioles—feel like the struggling team that could eventually make a run.
It’s times like these when searching for the positives feels like grasping at straws. The Orioles need some real changes if they’re going to recover from a disappointing start. What exactly could those changes be?
Jackson Holliday made his first start of the season last night. Camden Chat’s John Beers asked yesterday if Jackson Holliday can make this team better. While Holliday probably won’t make a drastic immediate impact, he represents the sole infield reinforcement with Jordan Westburg officially out for the season.
Holliday is a former number one overall draft choice with plenty of untapped potential. The 22-year-old will likely need to shake off a little rust, and the hamate procedure could rob the young infielder of his power for an extended period. Still, Holliday could breakout as a talented table setter if he manages to find the outfield grass more than Jeremiah Jackson and Blaze Alexander.
Any significant change in fortune would require significant improvement from the starting rotation. Trevor Rogers has been getting absolutely shelled to the point that many are wondering if he’s tipping his pitches. Rogers inability to put away hitters, especially after his level of dominance last season, doesn’t compute.
Rogers will be a free agent at the end of the season. Last year, he looked like a player that the Orioles could not afford to let walk. He’s been a below replacement level player in 2026.
Speaking of replacements, the rotation has needed a few. Injuries to Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer and Cade Povich have already carved out a spot for Brandon Young. Young and Povich were the guys penciled in as pitching depth this season. Povich recently received a cortisone injection, and the Orioles have yet to provide a timetable for a return. The lack of additional depth has shifted more youngsters into the picture.
Trey Gibson already made his major league debut. Gibson, Baltimore’s second best pitching prospect according to MLB Pipeline, already has two short big league stints under his belt. The 24-year-old is not currently on the 26-man roster, but he’ll be back at some point with a chance to make an impact. Unfortunately, even replacement-level pitching from Gibson or another Norfolk starter would represent an improvement of Rogers or Chris Bassitt.
There are other Norfolk starters by the way. Nestor German and Levi Wells both rank in the team’s Top 15 prospects. German and Wells look slightly less polished than Gibson, but the trio represent the latest wave of starting pitching hope with guys like Luis De León, Joseph Dzierwa, and Juaron Watts Brown still another click away.
I always find myself looking to these pitching groups when searching for optimism. Dreaming on pitching prospects is a right of passage for struggling teams. It’s more difficult when the team does not prioritize pitching in the draft, but that’s a conversation for another day.
Prospects like Gibson, German and Wells could make a positive impact at some point, but they can’t save the Orioles season. Vintage Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander aren’t walking through that door either. If this team wants to win, the guys already here need to play better. Gunnar Henderson and Pete Alonso have to perform like stars. Rogers and Shane Baz need to pitch to their “Cy Young potential.” Coby Mayo and Colton Cowser have to find a way to hit above the Mendoza line. It really seems to be that simple.
The Orioles are 21-28 with a -57 run differential. I refuse to completely throw in the towel before Memorial Day for the second consecutive year, but the search for optimism continues to be a struggle.
DENVER, CO - MAY 03: Jonah Heim #20 of the Atlanta Braves celebrates while rounding the bases after hitting a two-run home run in the second inning during the game between the Atlanta Braves and the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on Sunday, May 3, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Ray Bahner/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
I’ve created a bit of a dilemma for myself. (Not Jonah Heim related.)
I’m at least reasonably committed to doing the Big Board… but all the questions that I’ve come up with, and that people submitted responses and confidence ratings to, are all scored at the end of the year — except the Braves’ manager one, which is the only one to assign points so far. I’ve wanted to do in-season questions that are resolved and scored sooner, but the 2026 Braves season, as great as it has been, hasn’t lent itself to that for whatever reason. With the Braves dominating, there just hasn’t been much worthwhile, meaty debate on stuff that should or could happen. (I also have a separate dilemma about the best way to score certain things, but… that will be its own series of posts as we get closer to the end of the season and the need for scoring things.)
With that said, I do think Drake Baldwin’s injury and the Braves’ current catching situation lends itself to an in-season question… but, unfortunately, it’s another one that can really only be resolved at the end of the year. Anyway, here goes…
As the Braves waited for Sean Murphy to recover from hip surgery, they signed Jonah Heim to a low-cost ($1.25 million) MLB deal. Heim was an elite defensive catcher from 2021-2023, and the Rangers’ title run coincided with him starting to hit a bit, too, garnering a 4 fWAR season in the process. However, his career fell apart afterwards. Maybe it was the wrist injury he suffered in 2023. Maybe it was something else less overt. But, he went back to not hitting, and more damningly, he went from a cream-of-the-crop defensive catcher to a below-average one. Despite playing for 400+ PAs in both 2024 and 2025, he clocked in below replacement, tallying a combined -0.6 fWAR in the process. His time with the Braves before he was traded was similar despite the small sample of 45 PAs: a .275ish xwOBA, and well below average defensive play. The only reason Heim ended up at +0.1 fWAR in that sample was because he massively outhit his xwOBA in those 45 PAs.
So, that’s Jonah Heim. But, with both Murphy and Baldwin down, the Braves’ other options are… also bad.
Sandy Leon is a 37-year-old veteran of 14 major league seasons who is about as replacement-level as they come. He has a .250ish career xwOBA, and was consistently below replacement from 2019-2025 because he simply can’t hit enough despite the decent defense he sometimes provides. He has a career 0.3 fWAR in 1,752 PAs. He also hasn’t actually provided useful defensive value since 2019, either. It’s not clear why the Braves really wanted Leon rather than some other option, enough to fish him out of the Mexican League when Murphy got hurt again, but here we are.
Chadwick Tromp is 31 years old and is largely a Quad-A catcher. His career xwOBA is even worse than Leon’s (in the .230s). He’s generally gotten positive defensive marks when he’s played enough to accrue them, but he only has 179 career PAs at the big league level. His 0.4 fWAR in that span kinda suggests that he might actually be a serviceable MLB backup catcher, but the problem is that he has a .264 wOBA / .234 xwOBA over those 179 PAs, and if he had a .234 wOBA instead, that positive value probably evaporates. Tromp hasn’t even hit in the minors since 2024. The upside is unclear, if it exists.
The Braves could go outside the organization for temporary help. Unfortunately, there don’t seem to be a lot of options. Guys like Austin Wynns have been on the waiver wire recently, but they’re basically Leon-esque, no hit, some field, veteran options. Heim hasn’t been good in a while but was at least useful once; many of these waiver wire options have rarely gotten MLB exposure and haven’t done much when they have, even if they’ve been around the game for a decade or more.
So, here’s my question to you:
There are two “buckets” of production, for which we’ll use fWAR.
Bucket One is Jonah Heim, since the Braves traded him. (Irrespective of whether he goes anywhere else.) Right now, he has -0.2 fWAR in 20 PAs, which is a bizarrely hilarious -6 fWAR/600 PAs. This bucket consists of that -0.2, plus whatever else Heim does for the rest of the season.
Bucket Two is every non-Baldwin, non-Murphy player the Braves use at catcher this year. This includes Leon, Tromp, and anyone else they use as a stopgap. Leon is currently at -0.1 fWAR (-5.5 fWAR/600, in all of 11 PAs). Tromp had a single in his only PA yesterday, so he’s at 0.1 fWAR in 1 PA. (I’m not pro-rating that, el-oh-el.) This bucket consists of everything Leon, Tromp, and any other guys the Braves acquire to catch do for the team over the course of the season.
Your choices are as follows:
In the below, production means “taking Heim’s rate basis production and applying it over the set of PAs accrued by non-Baldwin, non-Murphy Braves catchers for the rest of the year.” Yes, this is subject to insane variation depending on how much Heim plays. But, there isn’t a better way to do this, I don’t think, because with Heim barely playing for the Athletics, while the Braves are forced to use multiple catchers due to injury, doing a straight-up fWAR basis wouldn’t work.
A: Bucket One (Heim) outproduces Bucket Two (Leon, Tromp, anyone else) by at least 1.0 fWAR. In other words, this is a meaningful difference.
B: Bucket One outproduces Bucket Two, but only by 0.5 to 0.9 fWAR. In other words, yeah, better production, but not really enough to swing anything.
C: Bucket One outproduces Bucket Two by less than 0.5 fWAR, which includes Bucket Two producing more than Bucket One.
Note that due to the quality of player we’re talking about here, “outproduce” can definitely mean less negative.
As usual with these, please assign a confidence score, where 5 is “I am absolutely certain this will occur” and 1 is “I have no idea but feel like participating in this anyway.” So, an answer would be something like A1 (you think it’d be funny if Heim was more productive but you aren’t staking much on it) or C5 (you are certain that the Braves won’t regret shipping Heim off). I kind of imagine that based on the types of people that have participated in these Big Board-soliciting questions, this will be heavily C3 through C5 rather than any As or Bs, but if you truly believe in Heim, here’s your chance to get some Big Board points and gloat later.
Just remember this old adage when thinking about the Cubs’ 5-2 loss to the Brewers and the current four-game losing streak: No team is as bad as it looks when on a losing streak. (Conversely, no team is as good as it looks when on a winning streak, and that includes this year’s Cubs.)
So exactly what sort of team is this Cubs team? A team that needs better starting pitching, for one. A team that needs a couple of key hitters to start hitting like they’re capable of. And a team that needs shutdown relief.
All of those things were in evidence Tuesday evening at Wrigley Field.
Everyone knew this was not going to be an easy game with Jacob Misiorowski throwing for Milwaukee. His numbers coming in were ridiculous: Of 202 batters faced before Tuesday, he’d struck out 80 of them — a 39.6 percent strikeout rate. And the Cubs couldn’t do anything with him for the first five innings, even while the first two Cubs hitters of the game reached base. Nico Hoerner walked and Michael Busch reached on an error. All that led to was an 0-for-3 with RISP — just for that inning alone. But the Cubs did make Misiorowski throw 26 pitches in the first inning, and that’s not a bad game plan against the Brewers fireballer — see if you can run up his pitch count and get him out of the game early.
It didn’t work, because over the next four innings, Misiorowski dispatched the Cubs on just 40 total pitches. They managed a single by Seiya Suzuki in the fourth and another single by Dansby Swanson in the fifth. Swanson was erased on a double play.
Meanwhile, Ben Brown didn’t have a terrible start. It wasn’t quite as good as his first two. He allowed seven hits and three runs in five innings, striking out six. The key to both the innings in which the Brewers scored, the first and third, were walks. A one-out walk in the first turned into a manufactured run for Milwaukee. A two-out walk in the third led to another such run, and the other run off Brown was on a wild pitch.
Basically, Brown had to be as good as Misiorowski to give the Cubs a chance, and he wasn’t. That’s not a knock on Brown, who looked decent enough. It’s just that the Cubs couldn’t do anything against Misiorowski. Hoerner, in the first inning, was the only Cubs runner past first base through six.
Jacob Webb threw a scoreless sixth and Caleb Thielbar, just returned from an IL stint, threw a scoreless seventh. So that’s good; perhaps the pen is stabilizing a bit.
Or, maybe it was before Trent Thornton threw the eighth. He allowed a one-out walk and after recording the second out, served up a home-run ball to Brice Turang.
At 5-0 entering the bottom of the eighth, this one appeared hopeless, but the Cubs did put together a rally. Pete Crow-Armstrong led off with a single and took third when Miguel Amaya doubled into the ivy in left-center.
So the bases are still loaded and the tying run is on base. Moisés Ballesteros, back in the lineup at DH, is the scheduled hitter against lefty Aaron Ashby. Craig Counsell sent Matt Shaw up to bat for Ballesteros, knowing that Pat Murphy would counter with a right-hander, which he did, calling Chad Patrick into the game.
Michael Conforto was sent up to bat for Shaw, which is obviously the matchup Counsell wanted. And Conforto, as you know, has had a flair for the dramatic lately.
Not this time, unfortunately. Conforto hit into a force play to end the inning.
Phil Maton entered the game to throw the ninth and that created visions of this 5-2 game becoming a 7-2 game or worse, given Maton’s recent failures. But Maton retired the Brewers 1-2-3. That provides at least a bit of hope that Maton can become a useful part of the Cubs bullpen.
The Cubs went down 1-2-3 in the bottom of the ninth to end it. Swanson thought he had led off with a walk, but Brewers catcher William Contreras challenged the pitch and it wound up strike three [VIDEO].
With the loss and the Cardinals defeating the Pirates, the Cubs drop to third in the NL Central, virtually tied with St. Louis but a few percentage points behind. Both teams are half a game behind the Brewers.
So again… no team is as bad as it looks when on a losing streak. They just ran into a really good pitcher in this one (Bluesky link):
The Cubs are better than this, and they will win again. Many times. Hopefully, starting tonight at Wrigley Field when they attempt to avoid a sweep. Edward Cabrera will start for the Cubs and Kyle Harrison goes for the Brewers. Game time is again 6:40 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network.
On a long enough timeline the survival rate drops to zero. Water finds its level. Everything regresses to the mean. Insert your euphemism here. One of the things we notice with numbers is that over time they usually approach what we would have expected. Unfortunately for the Astros catchers, they are left with Christian Vazquez getting regular starts with Yainer Diaz out.
On Monday, we looked at the league average BPO and discovered that is currently sits at .663. Please feel free to go back and read that piece for a primer on bases per out. What we did there is look at the league average BPO, so that we can calculate and BPO+. Since we are introducing a new stat, I will also include OPS+ just to compare the two.
Obviously, that includes a ballpark adjustment for the three catchers as well. The Astros wound up with a 101 overall park factor so far on the season, so we multiply each player’s BPO by .995 (since half of their games are on the road) to get their BPO+. Obviously, some positions will naturally have more production than others. Let’s get this thing started.
Catcher BPO
TB
BB
SB
HBP
Outs
BPO
BPO+
Yainer Diaz
35
3
0
0
83
.458
69
Christian Vazquez
33
7
0
0
65
.615
92
Cesar Salazar
1
2
0
0
10
.300
45
Combined
69
12
0
0
158
.513
77
One of the things we do to measure the efficacy of numbers is to compare them with other numbers we know have value. Yainer Diaz has a 69 OPS+, Vazquez has a 98 OPS+, and Salazar has a -5 OPS+. It is important to note how OPS and BPO are different. OPS is a nice, quick reference for offensive production (it explains approximately 90 percent of the variance in run production), but it has some significant holes.
The primary hole is a math problem that is difficult to get around. A player like Ty Cobb will have a .360 batting average. That means he will have at least a .360 OBP and a slugging percentage of at least .360. That’s a .720 OPS before we have even accounted for anything outside of batting average. Granted, there are no Ty Cobb’s running around, but there is Luis Arreaz of the Giants.
He has a 132 OPS+ due in large part to a .328 average through May 17th. His .807 OPS is not that impressive when you consider that .656 of it is tied up in batting average. His BPO+ is actually 113. I would still rather have him on my team than not, but one is reminiscent of an all-star and the other is reminiscent of a solid regular. That is because one counts batting average twice and the other does it once.
Vazquez’s numbers in April were unsustainable. Every predictive stat told us that. Part of that is that the power numbers just didn’t match the quality of the contact. The other part is that he is a 35 year old catcher that is suddenly playing five games a week. Even those of us that were souring on Diaz ideally wanted a work share between them.
Critics would correctly point out that you can’t have an all-star at every position and these numbers do not account for the defensive contributions of the player. This is where I would point to another feature I write over Battle Red Blog called “The Value of Things.” The concept is the same as the lab. Every player has an appropriate value and when players get their appropriate value then teams are usually able to afford more reinforcements.
Thankfully, Dana Brown did not extend Yainer Diaz like we would have liked to have seen him do after 2023 and 2024. I’d imagine that he will not end up at a 69 BPO+ when the season ends. His OPS+ last season was a 93 and that seems like a reasonable target for him. His OPS+ has dropped every year from 2023 on and it might very well drop to 85 or 90 this season.
From 1980 to 1988, the Astros kept throwing Alan Ashby out as their primary catcher. Each year they kept telling themselves he would only be the guy until they found someone better. In ten seasons (counting 1979) as the primary catcher, Ashby sported a 101 OPS. Diaz will end up being very similar and when you consider the defensive issues, the Astros will continue on with Diaz much the same way they continued on with Ashby all of those years.
Diaz will only be the guy as long as he is affordable and there is no one else better. Once one of those two things ceases to be the case, he will no longer be the regular catcher. With Walker Janek getting off to a rough start in Corpus Christi, there might not be any reinforcements any time soon. Vazquez and Salazar are here as long as they are cheap. That leaves the expansive world outside of Houston to shop for an improvement.
The last consideration will be the collective bargaining agreement. There will almost certainly be changes to the service time issue and that could also come with changes to arbitration and free agency. Diaz currently makes 4.5 million in arbitration. No one gets a pay cut in arbitration. So, Diaz could end up being a non-tender candidate if things don’t improve drastically. Otherwise you are looking at likely six or seven million for a below average catcher. Based on what you see, what are your recommendations?
The Arizona Diamondbacks look to complete the sweep this afternoon against the San Francisco Giants, with first pitch scheduled for 3:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field.
My Giants vs. Diamondbacks predictions are targeting Arizona to get the job done in the series finale, with the improving Merrill Kelly taking the hill.
Who will win Giants vs Diamondbacks today: Diamondbacks moneyline (-127)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have looked solid in this series, winning the opener 12-2 before a 5-3 victory on Tuesday evening. The D-Backs own a 14-9 record at home, and they've gone 5-1 across the last six meetings with the San Francisco Giants.
Merrill Kelly takes the mound for the hosts, and while his 5.91 ERA is concerning, he's been better lately. The right-hander has only allowed two earned runs across his previous two starts, and Kelly even threw a complete-game shutout last week against the Colorado Rockies.
On the other side, Tyler Mahle owns a 1-5 record and 5.59 ERA, and he's given up nine earned runs across his last two outings. Also, Mahle has an alarming 8.38 ERA on the road.
COVERS INTEL: Mahle isn't fooling anyone, with chase and whiff rates that rank in the 25th and 26th percentiles, respectively.
Giants vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+105)
I don't expect either starter to be completely lights out, but I also don't see the rubber match being high-scoring. Five of their last seven meetings have cashed the Under, and we saw only eight runs scored on Tuesday.
You'll see another Arizona-heavy offensive performance here, similar to the rest of this series. Both bullpens, which have pitched well lately, will hold it down after the starters exit.
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 12-11 +2.26 units
Over/Under bets: 14-9, +3.16 units
Giants vs Diamondbacks odds
Moneyline: Giants +113 | Diamondbacks -136
Run line: Giants +1.5 (-186) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+153)
Over/Under: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-120)
Giants vs Diamondbacks trend
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+10.50 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Giants vs Diamondbacks and game info
Location
Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Date
Wednesday, May 20, 2026
First pitch
3:40 p.m. ET
TV
NBC Sports Bay Area, Diamondbacks.TV
Giants starting pitcher
Tyler Mahle (1-5, 5.59 ERA)
Diamondbacks starting pitcher
Merrill Kelly (3-3, 5.91 ERA)
Giants vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Giants vs Diamondbacks weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
UPDATE: Added a +195 anytime goal scorer pick & who will win prediction!
Goaltender Jakub Dobes was a big reason why the Montreal Canadiens survived a pair of Game 7s to earn a spot against the Carolina Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference finals.
My Canadiens vs. Hurricanes predictions and NHL picks expect Dobes to be thrown into the fire tonight, facing all kinds of rubber from Carolina on Thursday, May 21.
Puck drop is set for 8 p.m. ET from the Lenovo Center in Raleigh, with the game airing on Sportsnet and TNT.
Canadiens vs Hurricanes Game 1 prediction
Who will win Canadiens vs Hurricanes Game 1?
Carolina Hurricanes: There are massive mismatches in the underlying five-on-five metrics, with Carolina ranking second in Corsi For percentage and expected goals, while Montreal respectively checks in 13th and 14th.
Additionally, the Hurricanes have a huge rest advantage, having last played May 9, and No. 1 goalie Frederik Andersen has an elite 1.250 goals saved above expected per 60 minutes.
Canadiens vs Hurricanes best bet: Jakub Dobes Over 28.5 saves (-105)
Montreal Canadiens goalie Jakub Dobes sports a solid .910 save percentage with 12.17 goals saved above expected across his 14 postseason starts, and he’s about to be busier than ever in Game 1.
The Carolina Hurricanes have recorded a playoff-high 30.9 shots per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 while ranking second in Corsi For percentage, and they also finished the regular season with the second-most shots per game (32.2) and highest CF% at 5-on-5.
So, with Montreal finishing 23rd in CF% at 5-on-5 during the regular season and now sitting 13th in the metric among the 16 postseason teams, Dobes is set to face more than enough rubber to record 29 or more saves in the series opener.
Montreal linemates Ivan Demidov and Alex Newhook tilted the ice in their favor in Round 2 with a 58.2% shot rate at 5-on-5 while combining for 37 shots. Additionally, Demidov recorded two or more in four of seven games, and Newhook had at least two shots six times.
Carolina has won 20 of its last 25 games (+14.40 Units / 37% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Hurricanes.
How to watch Canadiens vs Hurricanes Game 1
Location
Lenovo Center, Raleigh, NC
Date
Thursday, May 21, 2026
Puck drop
8:00 p.m. ET
TV
Sportsnet, TNT
Canadiens vs Hurricanes latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLAHOMA - MAY 18: Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs drives to the basket against Chet Holmgren #7 of the Oklahoma City Thunder during the fourth quarter in Game One of the NBA Western Conference Finals at Paycom Center on May 18, 2026 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images) | Getty Images
After a classic Game 1 in which the Spurs led most of the time over the Thunder despite no De’Aaron Fox but had to overcome their own mistakes and ride some Wemby Magic to a double-overtime victory, we continue our third Fraternizing with the Enemy series of these playoffs with Cray Allred of the Daily Thunder. As a reminder, this round is in honor of the late great J.A. Sherman: friend and former manager of Welcome to Loud City, who passed away last year at the age of 49.
J.R.
I don’t know that I’m equipped to adequately respond to Game 1. I’ve never noticed my heart rate so high for a game I wasn’t playing in. I went ahead and recorded it as a workout on my Apple Watch because it was over 120! And that was just regulation. I’m not sure that’s healthy.
There were so many moments worthy of focusing on, but the one that I can’t let go of is this: I’ve never seen a team up by two practically let the other team score at the end of regulation while completely selling out to avoid giving up a game winning three in order to play for overtime WHILE ON THE ROAD!? I always heard that was a cardinal sin. But apparently Mitch Johnson was concerned enough by the thought of Chet hitting a wide open three that he had Wemby stay home. After I recovered from the shock, I could see the logic.
It’s bad enough to lose a game, but the lift OKC would get from hitting a buzzer-beating game-winner would be worse than any other outcome. So he trusted his team, tired as they were, and rolled the dice into overtime, even though that didn’t work.
I mean, overtime worked in staving off a loss in regulation, but it didn’t stop the Thunder’s momentum and San Antonio was down three with less than half a minute left when Wemby decided to play Steph Curry and shoot what the play-by-play calls a “27-foot running jump shot,” which I wouldn’t call completely accurate but I’m not in the mood to argue about. From that point, the Spurs rode the momentum from Wemby’s audacious shot into the second overtime period and won it 14-7 for a 1-0 series lead.
I realize that I haven’t even scratched the surface of this game. I haven’t discussed the first three quarters at all. Haven’t given credit to Chet for his game-saving block to end regulation. Haven’t praised Coach Daigneault for sticking to his non-traditional 11-man (eleven?) rotation to keep his guys fresh for a 58 minute contest. Haven’t done a lot, but before I take to babbling incoherently, I want to throw it to you. What was your immediate response and what is your main takeaway from that epic series opener?
Cray:
What. A. Game.
It was so intense, so action-packed, and long as hell that we could probably both dissect a half dozen coach and player decisions from our teams apiece. On the one hand, a little better shotmaking from the Thunder’s best players would’ve swung this to a victory. On the other, Oklahoma City had the overall turnover, transition, and shooting (thanks, Alex Caruso) that have produced blowout wins the last two season — and it wasn’t enough for a close win against San Antonio. I don’t know what to think, as eager as I am to overreact. If PtR sickos readers enjoy listening to sad Thunder fans do just that for 90 miserable minutes, they should check out Daily Thunder’s Game 1 podcast recap.
Your questioning of that Wemby-corner assignment echoes what we’re all second guessing on the other end for OKC. As admirable a job Crazy Little Caruso has done going to war with Nikola Jokic and now Wemby in the paint, I don’t know that the battle is even worth fighting. Chet’s aggressive help from the corner when the Spurs get the ball inside to Victor is typically too little, too late. And that simultaneously opens up more of those corner threes that San Antonio has torched the league with all year. (As expected, my enjoyment of Devin Vassell has reached its conclusion.)
Correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems pretty clear that Wemby loves dunking on wings and going Kobe against bigs. That Steph-mode three notwithstanding, I would rather see Wemby shoot threes at around his 5+ attempt, 34% average than watch this chart get worse throughout the series.
Matter of fact, I’d rather stab my eyes out than watch him feed that chart with infinity more dunks on the head of Jalen Williams.
Two questions for you:
1. Are the Thunder playing into the Spurs’ hands with their scheme, or would you find a straight up Chet matchup to be even more in your favor?
2. You mentioned Mark Daigneault’s remarkably deep rotation. Mitch Johnson was the polar opposite. After the half, Johnson played all but one of his starters more than their regular season average for entire games (per Mike Shearer). Which contrasting rotation approach will work out better for the duration of the series, assuming both coaches stick to their guns?
J.R.
First, I think that any single scheme isn’t going to be sufficient to stop the Frenchman. That’s not because there is no scheme capable of stopping or slowing down Victor, that’s been done before even if it hasn’t been done recently or frequently. No, the reason no one scheme is enough is because San Antonio isn’t using a single scheme against SGA, and Wembanyama is at the point where he needs to be game-planned like one of the league’s elite offensive players.
It’s not going to be good enough to have a plan for Wemby while rotating defenders in and out to execute that scheme. You need to throw a different look at him as often as you can. Sean Sweeney mixed up defenses continually throughout Monday’s game. Shai isn’t sure what defense he’s looking at on a possession to possession basis. I see him just across half court wondering if it’s a soft trap or a zone, or whether he’s going to be blitzed as soon as he puts the ball on the floor. And the time he has to spend figuring it out means fewer chances to make plays.
If MD and his staff have eight options but none of them are working very well, pick the five they hate the least and cycle through them while giving him a merry-go-round of defenders to execute them. The Alien is impossible to defend straight up but he still has to process what he’s facing. Your best chance is to make him work hard mentally at the same time you’re testing him physically, otherwise his shot chart will keep looking like this (which is possibly the least Wemby graphic I’ve ever seen):
As to the rotations, it’s a good question but I don’t know if I can grant your condition. Joe and Wiggins combined for five minutes, and even though he got twelve in Game 1, I don’t think this is the series for Hartenstein. That’s not a knock on him, Rudy freaking Gobert was largely benched by the end of the last series. That player prototype doesn’t seem to be compatible with winning basketball while Wemby is in the game. Which means that both teams are essentially in the same place: as usually happens when the best teams meet in a series, all roads lead toward that ubiquitous nine man rotation.
As for the series as a whole, nothing has been decided yet, although things are beginning to take shape. Oklahoma City’s path to the finals exists, but it’s along the margins and the improvements are mainly required on offense. SGA needs to improve his shooting a little bit. Mitchell needs to make a couple more plays per half. The Thunder need to find a handful more successful offensive possessions that don’t involve a mediocre shooter taking an uncontested three. Someone needs to take Chet Holmgren aside, give him a big hug, and convince him that everyone that knows him loves him and believes in him. And finally, for crying out loud, the medical staff needs to find a way to keep JDub healthy. Please!
How about you? When your inner optimist imagines the Thunder’s Game 2 response, what do you see and how does it go?
Cray:
Yeah, Shai has been tested all postseason by doubles, triples, and overloaded zones, but the Spurs have the personnel to turn every possession into a pop quiz. OKC did mix up their sets and actions throughout the game on and off ball, weak and strong side, high and low, etc., but the window of opportunity to read and react to your advantage is so tiny with Wemby and the San Antonio scramblers. SGA has taken a leap as a playmaker this season, but he’s still not the snappiest decision maker with the ball.
Per CourtSketch, the most balanced minutes were those featuring Alex Caruso alongside Shai against Wembanyama. Caruso is about as trustworthy a postseason shooter as OKC has on the roster. With Wemby giving him the Tony Allen treatment, the heady Caruso drifted around the arc as a capable release valve when Shai drove through traffic. The game was even through the first overtime when that duo and Wemby shared the floor, with both Thunder players outscoring the Frenchman across 27 minutes in total. Of course, Victor won that matchup in the second OT going away.
I expect Daigneault and Shai to unlock more of what worked from the playbook, and for him to speed up his reads as they get acclimated to the Spurs. As nice as sweeping the Suns and Lakers in the first two rounds was for OKC, it wasn’t great preparation for the storm they ran into in the conference finals. But Caruso isn’t going to nail 8 threes every night. Shai will need to bang home a lot more of his own — they will remain difficult looks, but he’s one of most efficient tough shotmakers in league history — and he will need help from secondary playmakers to cut, drive, and shoot in those momentary creases that open when he draws Spurs defenders.
Caruso can be an opportunistic scorer, and he managed to shake Wemby a few times. That’s not enough to lift the offense above “good enough”. You’re right to name Ajay Mitchell in this context. He never lacks aggression, but he took the wrong shots (and floaters, ugh) all night. And if Wemby can really play this heavy of a load with full energy, they’ll need someone outside of Caruso to bother him on both ends.
That’s JDub’s music. He was awesome in the most brutal game imaginable for returning from an extended injury. But he didn’t have the oomph to stand up Wemby, and might not get there this series. Like you said, hopefully he stays healthy enough to keep trying.
That brings me to De’Aaron Fox. I was bummed he missed Game 1, and really hope he’s back for Game 2. The Spurs could absolutely use his minutes; I’m curious if you are itching for him to get back into the starting lineup, though. I was terrified of Dylan Harper getting plugged in with the starters before Fox’s injury was announced. Considering Harper showing out, would you want Mitch to roll with the rookie or bring him off the bench when Fox is back?
J.R.:
Do you know how when you’re watching a great movie or reading an excellent novel, you’ll be so engaged and involved with the characters until the scene ends and the action jumps to a different character’s thread of the story and you get that feeling of loss because you want to know what happens next with the characters that you were just with? And then the exact same thing happens the next time the scene breaks to rejoin the characters that you were initially upset at leaving?
That’s what it’s like for me every time one of the Spurs’ three guards leaves the game. “Oh no!” I’ll think, “Harper was just playing so well, and now he’s being replaced.”Then Castle will hit a three, steal the ball and get a breakaway dunk, and then block the opposing team’s center, and I will berate myself for being upset that he came into the game.
So I’m both excited that Harper got to start and play so much, while also being upset that Fox wasn’t available to come into the game and sub for Castle when he was spraying turnovers like a vaudeville actor doing a spit take.
The bottom line with Fox is that I want him to come back, but I would rather wait until game three if it means, he’ll be truly healthy and can play the rest of the series without being concerned about his ankle. And if I know the Spurs training staff, they will err on the side of safety. But when he comes back, he’s absolutely got the starting job. I can’t imagine Mitch starting Harper over the veteran for more than one game.
The thing about a playoff series is that no matter who has won the previous game, sometimes it’s hard for me to imagine the other team ever winning. When Minnesota took Game 1 of the second round, it felt like the Spurs might never win. After San Antonio won the next two, it felt like they would never lose again. Do you get that too, and do you feel like Wednesday’s game is a must win for OKC?
Cray:
That casting change analogy totally resonates with me. This season, at their best, the Thunder have always trimmed the rotation down to the most predictable and trusted combination of veteran players. That’s typical of all contenders when the playoffs unfold and the 82 game players fade from view. But my cliche this season has become “pinch yourself”, writing about how it feels watching actually good players like Mitchell and Caruso and even Jared McCain subbing in for the stars.
NBA fans are pinching themselves, too, ready for the sequel to Game 1: Clash of the Titans. We should feel good being fans of teams putting together this masterpiece. Everyone is asking how any other franchises have any hope of matching the defensive intensity, advanced strategy and tactics, and stable of young, hungry, excellent players suiting up for Oklahoma City and San Antonio on the NBA’s biggest stage. Who cares if these teams are likeable, stylish, popular, or hated? They’re the best, and they’re ours. Timberwolves fans can enjoy all the Ant ads they want while our guys are catching a breather during commercial breaks.
For the Thunder, it’s absolutely a must win (we might need to start tallying how many “must-wins” we flag throughout the series). The pressure is on, their backs are against the wall, the lights are bright…all the cliches apply for an OKC team fighting for a title repeat. I’m nervous but confident about their fate. One, because they’ve stared down these moments before, always harnessing the competitive fire of a champion. Two, because I anticipate a bit of a letdown. Even the most epic series feature more lopsided contests mixed in with the nail biters, and Game 2 for #1 seeds down 0-1 tend to even out relatively comfortably. Even if the Spurs are super fresh and unbothered by the heavy minutes from the other night, it would be really, really tough to avoid any emotional letdown and keep the edge for another 48 minutes in Loud City (although I am not putting it past them).
Cheers to Fox’s likely return, and to another great chapter in the league’s best rivalry.
Mike Trout
Willy Adames
Nick Kurtz
COVERS INTEL: Mahle isn't fooling anyone, with chase and whiff rates that rank in the 
