Worldwide Sports News

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

Yordan Alvarez is arguably the best hitter in baseball right now, but he doesn't force the issue and will take what's given to him.

With a 97th percentile walk rate, and a matchup against a pitcher he is 12-24 against in his career, Alvarez headlines my MLB player props and MLB picks for Thursday, Sept. 3.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Yordan Alvarez	Over 0.5 walks	-117
Lawrence Butler	Over 0.5 singles	+133
Jake Bauers	Over 0.5 hits	-156

Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 walks (-117)

Yordan Alvarez is someone pitchers need to tread with caution against at the best of times. That holds even more true in today’s matchup against Luis Castillo.

Alvarez has hammered Castillo over the years, going 12-24 with five home runs and just two strikeouts.

The Houston Astros are not hitting well as a whole, making pitching to Alvarez an even more unnecessary risk than usual.

Alvarez has walked in 58% of games he faced a right-handed starter sitting in the 40th percentile or worse in K-BB%.

I’d play this up to -130.

• Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CHSN, SCHN

Lawrence Butler Over 0.5 singles (+133)

Lawrence Butler is sporting a .294 average over the last 30 games, and has reached safely in 16 of his past 17.

While his season numbers against lefties are nothing to write home about, he has quietly hit fastballs and sliders – which happen to be Kade Anderson’s two primary pitches.

Butler owns a .292 average facing LH fastballs, and .263 against the slider. Anderson throws one of the two pitches more than 87% of the time vs. lefties.

Nearly 71% of Butler’s hits against lefties were singles, and I like his chances of getting one today. 

Play to +110.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSCA, SEAM

Jake Bauers Over 0.5 hits (-156)

Jake Bauers has hit .268 against right-handed pitching this season, and that number has climbed to .290 over the past 30 games.

Kevin Gausman ranks in the 27th percentile in batting average allowed to left-handed hitters, making this an appealing spot for Bauers to pick up a knock.

What really makes Bauers an attractive buy is how he’s handled the fastball-splitter combination.

Bauers has hit .330 or higher against both of those pitches, and they account for nearly 95% of what Gausman throws to lefties.

I’d back Bauers to -185.

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: FOX

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Team News

Diamondbacks bullpen has finest hour in shutout vs. Phillies: ‘We take pride in what we do’

Taylor Clarke, Derek Law, Kevin Ginkel, Jose Cabrera, Brandyn Garcia, Jonathan Loaisiga and Juan Morillo stymied the Phillies for three hits and two walks. It was the most pitchers used in a nine-inning shutout win in franchise history.

“It was cool to see everybody piece it together,” Garcia said. “I think that we’re just really close as a group.”
https://arizonasports.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks/diamondbacks-bullpen-has-its-finest-hour-in-shutout-win-over-phillies

McCann’s first-pitch go-ahead HR in 8th snaps D-backs’ 3-game slide
McCann knew Painter had gotten him out on breaking pitches in his previous two at-bats, but wasn’t necessarily sitting on a breaking ball in the eighth. He knew that Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto is an excellent game-caller, so he was prepared for anything they might throw his way.

“It was definitely one of those games where really either way — they come up with a big hit and the momentum shifts in their favor, we come up with a big hit and [it shifts in] our favor,” McCann said. “That’s a good quality team over there. It was a great series.”

https://www.mlb.com/dbacks/news/james-mccann-hits-go-ahead-homer-in-diamondbacks-win

How D-backs Pulled Off Improbable Bullpen Game Shutout Over Phillies
https://www.si.com/mlb/diamondbacks/onsi/how-diamondbacks-improbable-bullpen-game-shutout-phillies

D-backs Give New Injury Update on Gallen, Burnes, Soroka and Morehttps://www.si.com/mlb/diamondbacks/onsi/diamondbacks-new-injury-update-gallen-burnes-soroka-more

Other Baseball

The FBI investigation of Mark Walter, no matter the outcome, will have a negative impact on the perception of the Dodgers

https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/article/the-fbi-investigation-of-mark-walter-no-matter-the-outcome-will-have-a-negative-impact-on-the-perception-of-the-dodgers-214433120.html

New Rays Owner: Stadium Deal Should Lead To Significant Payroll Increasehttps://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/09/rays-rumors-top-15-payroll-new-stadium.html

Pirates, Jose Herrera Agree To Minor League Contracthttps://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/09/pirates-jose-herrera-agree-to-minor-league-contract.html

Ranking the 10 most impactful Trade Deadline moves, one month later
https://www.mlb.com/news/best-mlb-trade-deadline-moves-2026

Crew bats back up Miz after streak of 3 ER or less ends at 25
https://www.mlb.com/brewers/news/jacob-misiorowski-five-earned-runs-brewers-cubs

Stewart a lock for NL Rookie of the Year? The numbers back it up
https://www.mlb.com/reds/news/sal-stewart-legendary-rookie-season-reds

Acuña Jr. fastest in MLB history to reach 200 HRs and 200 SBs
https://www.mlb.com/braves/news/ronald-acuna-jr-fastest-to-200-homers-and-200-stolen-bases

Anything Goes

This day in history:

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/september-3

This day in baseball:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/September_3

25% of the oxygen we breathe is used by the brain.

This oxygen is used to help blood cells circulate the brain and allow it to function normally. The brain also uses three times as much oxygen as the muscles in the body do. 

Giraffes cannot swim.

A giraffe can maintain its balance on land due to its gait. However, research has shown that this balance is ineffective in the water. This makes them one of the worst swimmers in the animal kingdom.

Pepsi is named after indigestion.

When Caleb Bradham created Pepsi in 1965, he named it after the word “dyspepsia,” or indigestion. Bradham believed that his fizzy drink would help cure indigestion, hence the name, Pepsi. 

Two years ago if one said David Stearns would miss the playoffs two consecutive seasons there is no chance he would be still employed. What are the fans missing that he still has a job? Minor league development hasn’t been all that great either. -- @AndrewLiv

I don’t think fans are missing anything in the sense that in some markets, Stearns would be out of a job. I do think fans might be underestimating Steve Cohen’s patience and his willingness to give Stearns time to realize his vision -- I certainly underestimated that, to be honest.

More than anything, though, I think Cohen is deeply reluctant to duplicate the kind of front office churn he experienced in his early years. He wants to make the Mets a destination for smart baseball people, and he knows that smart baseball people believe growing an annual juggernaut takes time. 

Firing Stearns this year, or even last, would have signaled to anyone considering a job here that their leash is short and their process must work immediately. Whether fans agree with that argument is another thing. I think it’s fair to wonder whether, given this franchise’s budget, a head of baseball operations should be able to turn things around quickly.

Still, if Cohen deemed two down seasons and one miracle postseason was too quick a hook, I wouldn’t be surprised if he decides three amounts to leaving the starter in too long. If the Mets struggle to start next year and endure another mediocre summer, I expect Cohen to move on, but he has surprised us all with his patience before.

What the heck are the Mets gonna do at 2B for next season? -- @MichaelTConte

I know this is the underlying premise of the question, but I want to make sure I say it: Marcus Semien has been a good and durable player for a long time. He is as professional and tough as they come. But only one player in baseball has a lower OPS (.652) than he does since the start of last season, and the defensive metrics suggest the 35-year-old’s defense is diminishing, too.

That said, the Mets still owe Semien $26 million for 2027 and $20 million in 2028. I do not expect them to eat that money without first trying to get something out of him in those years -- so here’s what I expect:

I expect Semien enters spring training with a chance to be the starting second baseman, but I expect prospects like Jefferson Rojas, Mitch Voit, and Emilien Pitre to be in camp with him. I would expect Semien to split time at second, maybe with someone like Baty, until either one of them or one of the young guys seizes the playing time moving forward.

And whenever the Mets decide someone other than Semien should be starting at second base every day, I expect they will move him to a bench role because he has experience all over the infield, has played in big games, and is a sturdy veteran whose work ethic sets a tone. 

I wouldn’t be stunned if the Mets end up buying out his contract, but I also wouldn’t be stunned to see him finish it out -- particularly if more limited playing time improves his health, range, and offensive production.

Will Brett Baty flashes mean the Mets give him another year? Vientos a goner? Alvarez ever gonna fulfill his promise? -- @jimmyzcb1

I think Brett Baty gets another year, yes. I think the new coaching staff threw some things at him offensively that they are hoping will click, and I think his defensive versatility is treasured by Stearns and Co.’s models. He can be valuable to a winning team off the bench. I do not necessarily think he gets another year penciled into the starting lineup, however.

Vientos is a tough read. I think Andy Green’s firm words about his future recently -- implying, basically, that they aren’t going to clear a path for him to stay here and he’s going to have to clear one himself -- signal frustration. 

Even with uncertainty at first base next year, I do not see a path for him there. And if he is a right-handed power option off the bench, he probably won’t get enough at-bats to establish himself.

I think Vientos is a non-tender candidate this winter, though their loyalty to this generation of young Mets always exceeds my expectations. At least a few people I’ve talked to about Vientos think he could find more regular success elsewhere. Of the three guys mentioned in this question, I think he is most likely to depart this winter.

As for Alvarez, he is frustrating because he is so close to being a superstar -- he cares about what he does, his power is incredible, but he just can’t seem to: a) find offensive consistency, b) lay off the high fastball enough to make opponents change their plans against him.

I am not sure he will become a superstar, I think he will become a more valuable big-league catcher, in part because the Mets do not need him to carry a heavy workload while they have Luis Torrens. 

If Alvarez can be consistent enough to play four times a week and hit 15-20 homers while not being a liability defensively, that’s a valuable player. It might not be the player everyone wanted him to be, but in a league light on power-hitting catchers who can actually handle duties behind the plate, it’s not nothing. 

And maybe he still figures it out and pushes himself into a different tier of player, the talent is certainly still there.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (68-65) lost 2-1 (BOX SCORE)

Sugar Land went with a bullpen game as King got the start and tossed a scoreless first. The offense got on the board in the third on a Brooks RBI groundout. Weiss went 3 innings in relief allowing one run. The rest of the pen was solid too but the Aces picked up a run in the 8th. The Sugar Land offense was unable to get anything else going as they fell 2-1.

Note: Ferreras is hitting .318 in Triple-A.

• Trenton Brooks, DH: 0-for-2, RBI, BB
• Pascanel Ferreras, 3B: 2-for-4, 2 2B
• Lucas Spence, CF: 1-for-4, R, 2B

• Bryan King, LHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Ryan Weiss, RHP: 3.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
• Nic Swanson, RHP: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
• Logan VanWey, RHP: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• Michael Knorr, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (59-69) won 4-0 (BOX SCORE)

Schiavone got the scoring started early with a 2 run home run in the first inning. Hertzler started for the Hooks and was solid tossing 3 scoreless innings with 4 strikeouts. The offense added a Janek solo home run in the 3rd and a Whitaker RBI double in the 4th to extend the lead. The bullpen was great tossing 6 scoreless innings as they closed out the 4-0 win.

Note: Schiavone has 31 home runs this season.

• Tyler Whitaker, CF: 3-for-4, R, 2B, RBI
• Jason Schiavone, DH: 1-for-3, R, HR, 2 RBI, BB
• Walker Janek, C: 1-for-4, R, HR, RBI
• Alberto Hernandez, SS: 1-for-4, 2B
• Marcus Brown, 2B: 0-for-2, R, BB, SB

• Cole Hertzler, RHP: 3.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
• Joey Mancini, RHP: 3.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K (WIN)
• Colby Langford, LHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• Andrew Marrero, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Amilcar Chirinos, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

A+: Asheville Tourists (42-84) lost 4-2 (BOX SCORE)

Perez starter for Asheville and pitched well allowing 1 run over 6 innings with 6 strikeouts. The offense got on the board in the 2nd inning on a Monistere solo home run. In the third, Fielder connected on a solo home run to give Asheville the lead. Cruz relieved Perez but allowed 3 runs as the Grasshoppers took the lead. The offense was unable to respond as Asheville fell 4-2.

Note: Perez has 132 strikeouts over 110 innings this season.

• Nick Monistere, 2B: 1-for-3, R, HR, RBI
• Jadyn Fielder, LF: 1-for-3, R, HR, RBI

• Javier Perez, RHP: 0.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• Anthony Cruz, RHP: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
• Max Martin, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (71-55) lost 5-4 (BOX SCORE)

Fraide started for the Woodpeckers and was solid allowing 2 runs, both unearned, over 4 innings while striking out 6. Fraide was relieved by Serrano who allowed 3 runs over 4 innings. The offense got on the board in the 6th on a Hughes RBI single. They scored 3 more runs in the 7th on Galloway RBI single, passed ball and a run on a double steal. The offense was unable to score again though as they fell 5-4.

Note: Hughes is hitting .333 this season.

• Logan Hughes, 1B: 2-for-4, RBI
• Ben Tryon, DH: 1-for-3, R, 2B, BB
• Rashawn Galloway, C: 1-for-1, R, RBI

• Juan Fraide, RHP: 4.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
• Jose Serrano, RHP: 4.0 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Jason Alexander – 7:05 CT

CC: Alonzo Tredwell – 6:35 CT

AV: Adam Shoemaker – 5:35 CT

FV: TBD – 6:00 CT

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

It's a quiet nine-game slate across the majors today, and I've pinpointed my best MLB moneyline picks for every single matchup. 

See it all in my MLB picks for Thursday, Sept. 3. 

MLB moneyline picks for September 3

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Matchup	Pick
Giants vs Pirates	60%
Blue Jays vs Guardians	50%
White Sox vs Astros	61%
Red Sox vs Orioles	56%
Brewers vs Cubs	52%
Marlins vs Royals	52%
Rays vs Rangers	47%
Athletics vs Mariners	66%
Cardinals vs Dodgers	73%

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 9-3.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for September 3

Giants at Pirates: Pirates

Pirates win probability: 60%

Pittsburgh has the cleaner full-game profile with Lake Bachar opening and a bullpen that’s been excellent lately, posting a 3.27 FIP over the last week with no homer damage.

San Francisco’s lineup has lacked power, while Blade Tidwell’s recent 5.81 FIP and 2.53 HR/9 give the Pirates a clear scoring path at PNC Park.

That makes Pittsburgh the side.

Blue Jays at Guardians: Blue Jays

Blue Jays win probability: 50%

Both starters here are in good form. Tanner Bibee sports a 3.35 FIP across his last two starts, while Jose Soriano owns a 3.51 FIP during that same span. 

However, Toronto's offensive form gives them the edge. The Jays have a 117 wRC+ over the last week, while the Guardians have struggled at the dish, posting an 86 wRC+. 

I'll comfortably side with Toronto. 

White Sox at Astros: Astros

Astros win probability: 61%

You can't ignore Luis Castillo's form right now. The White Sox trade deadline acquisition has a horrendous 11.05 FIP across his previous two appearances, allowing 5.40 HR/9 and a 51.6% hard-hit rate. 

Hunter Brown, meanwhile, is dealing for the Astros, compiling a 2.85 FIP over the last two weeks. Houston isn't thriving offensively lately, but Castillo's vulnerability is the perfect opportunity for them to wake up, and they're around the league average at home. 

Lock in the Astros. 

Red Sox at Orioles: Red Sox

Red Sox win probability: 56%

Jake Bennett is lights out for the Red Sox, carrying a 2.33 FIP into tonight's outing over the last two weeks. He's also given up minimal home runs while consistently pounding the strike zone. 

Brandon Young is in much worse shape, collecting a 4.99 FIP during that span with 1.42 HR/9 allowed. Boston's 103 wRC+ is 30 points higher than Baltimore's across the last seven games, too. 

The Red Sox are the clear pick. 

Brewers at Cubs: Brewers

Brewers win probability: 52%

The Brewers will be feeling confident with Logan Henderson on the bump tonight against the Cubbies. He has a 2.87 FIP across his last 13 innings of work, allowing minimal walks and home runs. 

That will be key against a red-hot Chicago offense, which has posted a ridiculous 180 wRC+ in the last week. But Henderson is in the type of form that can slow them down, even if it might not be a flawless outing. 

Kevin Gausman has shown vulnerability lately, collecting a 4.10 FIP with 1.61 HR/9 over the last month. Milwaukee is also crushing baseballs with a 137 wRC+ in its previous seven games. 

We could see lots of runs here, but the Brewers have the slight edge on the hill. 

Marlins at Royals: Royals

Royals win probability: 51%

Kansas City's offensive form is the decider tonight. The Royals have a 125 wRC+ in the last week, and although Sandy Alcantara has been impressive lately with a 2.40 FIP, he has struggled at times on the road, posting a 4.41 FIP this season. 

Michael Wacha owns a 2.37 xERA recently with minimal home runs allowed, and the Marlins are right around the league average offensively at the moment. 

Take the hosts. 

Rays at Rangers: Rangers 

Rangers win probability: 47%

Shane McClanahan has looked decent, but I really like the Rangers' offensive profile in this matchup. They're one of the few lineups that thrive against left-handed pitching, posting a 112 wRC+ this season. 

Cal Quantrill has also been fantastic lately for Texas, and his 2.93 FIP over the last two weeks will be sufficient to contain the Rays tonight. 

Texas is the play. 

Athletics at Mariners: Mariners

Mariners win probability: 66%

The Mariners are swinging it with authority, carrying a 109 wRC+ and 10% barrel rate over the last week into tonight's contest. They will face Jack Perkins, who has a 6.20 FIP recently, with major command and home run issues. 

Kade Anderson has had his problems as well lately, but his 2.29 xERA suggests he's been better than the numbers say, and he's limited opponents to a 32.1% hard-hit rate in his last two appearances.

Seattle will keep flourishing. 

Cardinals at Dodgers: Dodgers

Dodgers win probability: 73%

Obviously, the win probability doesn't scream value here, but you simply cannot go against Tarik Skubal. He sports a ridiculous 0.56 FIP over his last two starts with the Dodgers, not allowing a single home run. The Cardinals are right around the league average offensively lately, but Skubal's dominance is hard to ignore. 

Quinn Matthews has held his own as well with a 3.56 xERA recently, but his 40% hard-hit rate over the last two weeks shows vulnerability, and the Dodgers have an impressive 105 wRC+ against left-handed hurlers. 

Another win for L.A. here. 

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

The Houston Astros beat the Chicago White Sox last night, and my White Sox vs. Astros prediction expects another win for H-Town.

Find out why in my MLB picks for Sept. 3, with first pitch set for 2:10 p.m. ET at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas.

Who will win White Sox vs Astros today: Houston Astros (61%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Hunter Brown has looked more like Hunter Brown over the past month, pitching to a 3.18 ERA and 3.28 xERA. 

That should continue against the Chicago White Sox, who rank 24th in batting average vs. right-handed pitching this season.

Brown has posted a clean 2.78 ERA over seven starts against opponents ranking Bottom 10 in batting average against RHP. He’s set up for success.

Luis Castillo has allowed at least three earned runs in seven of his past eight, and offers the Houston Astros an opportunity to jumpstart their offense.

Back Houston to 63%.

 COVERS INTEL: Luis Castillo has allowed a 46.1% hard-hit rate over the past month, second-highest among today's projected starters.

White Sox vs Astros Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (49%)

One area the Astros excel in is drawing walks. They sit 10th in walk rate against right-handed pitching, and that allows them to generate traffic even when the bats aren’t hot.

The Astros have already faced Castillo twice this season and caused him a world of problems. They scored 10 runs over nine innings of work while drawing four walks.

Brown is a very good pitcher but he has struggled with control, sitting in the seventh percentile in walk rate. That will lead to some extra baserunners and help Chicago chip in.

Play to 53%.

White Sox vs Astros home run prediction: Yordan Alvarez (27%)

Castillo allows a lot of power to left-handed hitters. He ranks in the 14th percentile in HR/9 and 12th percentile in SLG, which should have Yordan Alvarez chomping at the bit for this matchup.

Alvarez has hit .359 with a .369 ISO and .728 SLG against right-handed starters who sit in the 30th percentile or worse in those two categories.

His already ridiculous season outputs level up further, making him that much more enticing of a target.

White Sox vs Astros market trends

Here is how the smart money from Polymarket traders is coming in on this afternoon's White Sox vs. Astros matchup, with the Astros as the heavy favorite.

White Sox vs Astros weather

This game will be played indoors.

White Sox vs Astros odds

• Moneyline: White Sox 40% | Astros 61%
• Run line: White Sox +1.5 (59%) | Astros -1.5 (42%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (49%) | Under 8.5 (52%)

White Sox vs Astros trend

Chicago owns a 78-61 O/U record this season. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Astros.

How to watch White Sox vs Astros and game info

White Sox vs Astros latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

Today's baseball slate is a short one, but our MLB expert picks are ready to dive in anyway.

One analyst is bullish on the Baltimore Orioles to beat the Boston Red Sox straight up, while another likes both offenses to light up the scoreboard on Thursday, Sept. 3.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Probability
Josh Inglis: ATH/SEA u7.5	56%
Jon Metler: BAL ML	47%
Neil Parker: BOS/BAL o8.5	50%
Joe Osborne: STL/LAD o7.5	53%
Dustin Saracini: TOR ML	50%

Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: A's at Mariners Under 7.5

Price: 56¢ at Polymarket

This is about as tough a schedule spot as you can get for the Seattle Mariners offense today.

The Mariners were just in Boston yesterday and now open a weekend set with the Athletics at home. Returning home after a two-series East Coast trip with no day off works against the home side, and it's just enough to slow down an average offense coming off its best three-game offensive output.

Seattle gets Jack Perkins, who has allowed just two earned runs over his last three starts, while the Mariners should have a favorable matchup against the A's and their league-worst road scoring offense.

Twenty-two-year-old first-rounder Kade Anderson starts for Seattle and has struck out 135 batters in 93 minor-league innings this year. Neither bullpen has restrictions today, and the projections give this a 56% fair probability.

The schedule spot and the worst road offense are pushing this total down to a flat 7.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: NBC Sports California, Mariners.TV

Jon Metler's expert pick: Orioles moneyline

Price: 47¢ at Polymarket

The biggest reason I like the Baltimore Orioles in this matchup is the probability. The Orioles are trading at 47% on Polymarket, but I make them closer to a 51% favorite.

We typically look to exploit edges of just 2-3%, so a 4% difference is certainly worth our attention. The Boston Red Sox will send left-hander Jake Bennett to the mound. While he's dominated left-handed hitters this season, he has been more vulnerable against right-handed bats.

That sets up well for an Orioles lineup with plenty of right-handed power from spots two through six, including Luis Robert Jr., whom Baltimore acquired on Aug. 31.

Small details can create an edge in these markets, and Robert's addition is particularly important here. He has historically hit left-handed pitching better than right-handed pitching, and his presence gives Baltimore another right-handed bat that profiles well against Bennett.

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• How to watch: FOX

Neil Parker's expert pick: Red Sox at Orioles Over 8.5

Price: 50¢ at Polymarket

The Red Sox and Orioles rank fourth and fifth in xwOBA over the past 30 days while averaging 5.3 and 4.6 runs per game, respectively, and Camden Yards will have ideal hitting conditions tonight.

Additionally, Baltimore righty Brandon Young’s underlying 4.36 xERA and 4.47 xFIP are way above his 3.38 ERA, and the Orioles, as my colleague Jon Metler alluded to, have multiple impact right-handed hitters to counter Bennett.

Neil Parker breaks the matchup down further in his Red Sox vs. Orioles predictions.

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• How to watch: FOX

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Cardinals at Dodgers Over 7.5

Price: 53¢ at Polymarket

The Over is the play in Los Angeles, with the St. Louis Cardinals on a 11-2 Over tear.

Tarik Skubal has been solid for the Los Angeles Dodgers, but he hasn’t reached the unhittable level he displayed in Detroit, and the Cardinals rank fourth in OPS against left-handed pitching over the past month.

The bigger mismatch comes on the other side. Rookie Quinn Mathews brings a 5.03 ERA and 1.58 WHIP into just his fifth career start against a dangerous Dodgers lineup desperate to break out of a 2-6 slide.

With St. Louis’ bullpen posting a brutal 6.47 ERA over the past two weeks and winds blowing eight mph straight to center, Over 7.5 has plenty of paths to come through.

• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Cardinals.TV, SportsNet LA

Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Blue Jays moneyline

Price: 50¢ at Polymarket

If the Toronto Blue Jays want to build momentum after their 11-0 win last night, Jose Soriano is the right man to do it.

Across 46 plate appearances (we love a good sample size), the Cleveland Guardians own just a .213 xBA and .332 xSLG against the righty, which includes limiting Steven Kwan to a .159 xBA.

His elite ground-ball rate is perfect for a contact-first team like Cleveland and should allow him to work deep into the ballgame. On the other side, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. might've finally woken up last night after going 3-for-4 with five RBI and a homer. He won't be slowing down today, either, rocking a .744 xSLG against Tanner Bibee.

All the numbers point toward the Jays in a must-win game here. I'd play this up to 55 cents at Polymarket.

Dustin Saracini has more analysis for this game in his Blue Jays vs. Guardians predictions.

• Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Sportsnet, Guardians.TV

More MLB best bets for today

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

At one point, leading by a dozen runs in what was a blowout win over the Captains, the Loons had a magnificent day at the plate, which naturally included our Player of the Day.

Player of the Day

Even in the middle of an outstanding campaign, Emil Morales had an individual performance that stood out, recording five hits for the first time in his career, one of them a home run—his 20th in 78 games at the High-A level, 26 overall this season.

Adjusting seamlessly to the demands of a higher level, the teenage shortstop has been the star of the show for the Loons since his call-up, crushing baseballs alongside the likes of Charles Davalan and more recently promoted Eduardo Quintero.

Triple-A Oklahoma City

Both sides couldn’t record more than a single hit with a runner in scoring position; the difference was that the Loons left over twice the number of runners on base, needing an 11th-inning rally to beat the Express by a score of 7 to 3.

Although he recorded an RBI, James Tibbs III had what could be described as a nightmare performance from the leadoff spot, striking out five times in six at-bats. Alek Thomas was the reason the Comets had the opportunity to win in extras in the first place, hitting two solo shots in the third and seventh innings.

The rally in extras to take the win was started by Zach Ehrhard, who hit his third triple of the season before the bottom of the order joined in on the fun. Lastly, Jake Cousins, on his first rehab assignment, and Bobby Miller were involved as part of a five-inning scoreless effort from the Comets’ bullpen.

Double-A Tulsa

It’s a rare feat to see your opponent record more than three times your number of hits and still find yourself on the winning side of a close matchup. Three hits were all the Drillers needed to beat the Wind Surge’s 10 in a 5-4 game.

Multiple errors by the Wind Surge defense in the third allowed the Drillers to score a pair of runs. Elijah Hainline secured a game-tying sacrifice fly in the seventh before Jake Gelof had the decisive knock of the game, a two-run shot in the eighth, his 30th long ball of the season—it was the only extra-base hit that Tulsa would record in this one, and the only one that they’d need.

High-A Great Lakes

The Loons hammered the Captains in a 13-7 win, with shortstop Emil Morales coming a triple shy of hitting for the cycle, securing a team-high five hits and four RBI. Morales took full advantage of a top of the order in Charles Davalan and Eduardo Quintero, who reached base in front of him consistently, three times each.

It was an even bigger win than the final score would suggest, given that when the Loons scored their 13th run, they led by a dozen. Since Will Gagnon only covered four innings in which he struck out seven, the win was given to Maddux Bruns. The young left-hander had the odd achievement of striking out more players (5) than outs he recorded (4) since one of them reached base on a wild pitch.

Class-A Ontario

The quickest path to overcoming defensive errors is to score a boatload of runs, something the Quakes did in a 10-7 win over the Tower Buzzers, moving past their three defensive mistakes to Ontario’s one. While starter Paul Nieves didn’t have a particularly dominant outing, he was solid enough to be in the lead after four; the real troubles came when reliever Dailoui Abad took the mound, as he was picked apart in a five-run sixth, overall allowing seven runs in just two innings of work.

There was a comeback spark in the ninth when Oswaldo Osorio hit a two-run shot before an out was recorded—the Tower Buzzers’ second homer of the game alongside a first-inning bomb from Ching-Hsien Ko—but the following three hitters were retired to keep the game from any real drama. While Osorio reached base all five times, the hitter behind him, catcher Conner O’Neal, finished the game with a golden sombrero.

Transactions

The Great Lakes Loons activated right-handed pitcher Alek Makarewich off the injured list and transferred fellow right-handed pitcher Reynaldo Yean to the development list. Lastly, Jake Cousins began a rehab assignment with the Oklahoma City Comets.

Wednesday’s scores

• Round Rock 3, Oklahoma City 7
• Tulsa 5, Wichita 4
• Lake County 7, Great Lakes 13
• Ontario 7, Rancho Cucamonga 10

Thursday’s schedule

• 1:00 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Sean Patick) at Lake County (Jackson Humphries)
• Game 2: Great Lakes (Brooks Auger) vs. Lake County (Will McCausland)
• 4:45 p.m. PT: Oklahoma City (Jackson Ferris) at Round Rock (Blake Townsend)
• 5:00 p.m. PT: Tulsa (Aidan Foeller) vs. Wichita (Cory Lewis)
• 6:35 p.m. PT: Ontario (TBD) vs. Rancho Cucamonga (Derek Clark)

Rise and shine A’s fans! We got a brand new series to get started today up in Seattle.

The organization has had some massive hits in the first round of recent MLB Drafts. The team’s 2019-2024 picks have all made it to the major leagues with varying success but they really hit it big in recent years with Tyler Soderstrom, Jacob Wilson, and Nick Kurtz. Those three are anchor players among the position player side of things.

While the team has done well drafting position players, they’ve lacked in the pitching department due to a lack of trying. The Athletics did not select a pitcher with their first round pick in the last nine years. No wonder the big league squad has had pitching problems.

That nearly decade-long streak was snapped last year when the club selected southpaw Jamie Arnold, the first pitcher selected with the A’s top pick since another lefty in A.J. Puk way back in 2016. A product of Florida State University, Arnold was widely considered one of the top pitching prospects and one that could move through the system quickly.

Arnold has looked as advertised so far and his ascent up the minor league ladder has been quick. He didn’t pitch after getting drafted last year and began his professional career at Double-A, where he’s spent most of the year. In 23 starts he posted a 3.27 ERA but he was especially dominant in four August starts where he allowed just four runs in 23 innings. That earned him a promotion to Triple-A, where he made his Aviators debut a couple days ago.

Now 23, the left-hander has now arrived at the final stop of the minor leagues and he looked like he hasn’t skipped a beat. Facing Triple-A hitters for the first time Arnold pitched five shutout frames while allowing just four hits. He also punched out five batters compared to just two walks. It doesn’t get much better than that for a top prospect reaching that level for the first time.

That’s now put him on the radar of a possible promotion over the final month. The A’s have been aggressive in recent years with some of their youngest players and if Arnold continues to look comfortable in Triple-A, then the A’s could feel comfortable getting his feet wet in the big leagues in a relief role, or heck even a start before the year is up. That sure would give A’s fans something exciting to watch.

The more likely scenario is that Arnold wraps the year where he is and contends for a spot in the rotation next Spring. As of right now he’d have a decent shot to crack that top five but we’ll have to wait and see what the A’s do to bolster the starting rotation this offseason. Either way, it’s not much longer before we see Arnold donning the Green & Gold in a regular season game.

Have a great Thursday everyone.

A’s Coverage:

• A’s Rally Too Late in 8-5 Loss to Rangers
• A’s Designate José Suarez For Assignment
• White exits with back tightness as A’s injury woes continue
• Your 2026 Hacktastic A’s
• Losing Streak Hits Four, A’s Lose To Rangers 8-1
• Athletics Considering James Click For GM Vacancy
• Get the best of Athletics Nation on the new SB Nation app
• How defensive whiz Clarke’s return will impact A’s
• How A’s catcher Bruce Maxwell brought taking a knee to MLB and what happened afterwards
• A’s Plan to Test Top Pitching Prospect Jamie Arnold at Next Level
• A’s Take Series With Finale Win Over Twins 7-4
• Separating The Wheat From The Chaff Not So Easy
• Amidst The Despair: The Position Player Talent Is There
• What Are The Next Steps For The A’s? ($)
• Where Each A’s Player’s Contract Stands Entering Offseason
• Why Athletics Will Have Scary Offense in 2027
• Red-hot Bolte looking to build on lessons from rookie season
• ’Kid has been grinding’: Butler’s resurgence, leadership fuel A’s
• Underdog Athletics prospect Cole Conn playing like a big dog for Aviators
• Behind the Plate, the A’s Face an Offseason Reckoning
• Why The New GM Needs To “Clean House”
• A Seemingly Rock Bottomless Glass
• MLB Trade Grades: A’s Have Quiet Trade Deadline
• This key change(up) could unlock big success for A’s prospect
• Fustercluck 2026: The Real Reasons For A Disappointing Season

MLB News and Interest:

• Rookie of the Year races in AL, NL coming to conclusion as favorites pull away
• New Rays Owner: Stadium Deal Should Lead To Significant Payroll Increase
• Dodgers get Will Smith, Rushing, Wrobleski back from IL
• Mike Trout on ‘needed’ sale of Angels: It’s a ‘fresh start’
• Angels Notes: Stadium, Trout, Front Office
• Rays, Austin Slater Agree To New Minor League Deal
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

Arnold wasn’t the only one with a recent promotion to Triple-A:

Looking like it so far:

Very!

The injuries don’t stop: