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Worcester, Game 1: W, 3-2 (F/7) (BOX SCORE)

The doubleheader against Jacksonville (Marlins AAA) could not have been a more night and day tale of two games. This game made the most of some Vinny Capra and Kristian Campbell RBI knocks in the fourth and Blake Wehunt overcame giving up a first inning home run to have a solid, if short, start. He’s impressed thus far in Worcester, and I’d imagine we could see him in some mop-up capacity in Fenway going down the stretch. As a whole, the six hits Wehunt allowed were the only ones Jacksonsville got and the WooSox slammed the door.

Worcester, Game 2: W, 13-12 (F/7) (BOX SCORE)

Just seven innings, and the two teams combined for twenty five hits, sixteen walks, twenty three at-bats with runners in scoring position, and three home runs, again showcasing a Kristian Campbell RBI opportunity in the fourth to pull the team ahead. Jacksonville was absolutely trying to preserve its pen as they let their starter wear it through almost four innings, and Campbell’s home run would end his outing. The WooSox used five pitchers and just grinned and beared it through the power of their offense. Let me be clear: the headline is a tad deceiving. Without Campbell’s home run, the actual heroic moment Mickey Gasper had in the bottom of the seventh would have had no chance to happen. Campbell did score on that bases-clearing walk-off knock Gasper had by sticking out a gutsy walk, but when the team scores 13, you have to hand it to everyone on the offense.

Portland: L, 1-2 (BOX SCORE)

Hayden Mullins was a victim of circumstance; he struck out eight through five scoreless innings, allowing just two base runners, but did not get a decision due to the team going hitless with runners in scoring position. Matt Frazier and Brooks Brannon each took the Rumble Ponies (Mets AA) for doubles; neither scored, and those were the only extra-base hits to speak of.

Greenville: W, 13-6 (BOX SCORE)

Greenville’s blistering start saved what could have been a bullpen meltdown by Joe Vogatsky, and Calvin Bickerstaff shoved for thirteen scoreless outs to give the Drive enough of a chance to pull further ahead, a lead that Spartanburg (Astros High-A) could not recover from. But Justin Gonzales and Yoelin Cespedes pulled the Drive wayyy ahead early with some of what would end up being three hits a piece, including Cespedes’ 17th home run of 2026 and Gonzalez’s 13th. The Drive would be up 10-0 after 3 and even the Spartanburgers putting 6 runs on the board in the next two frames was the closest they got to making it interesting.

Salem: W, 9-3 (BOX SCORE)

See, if you give Kleyvar Salazar the chance to come up to the plate, he’ll hit a home run. The catcher was at the plate when Tuesday’s game was called due to rain during a rally for the ages, and all he did was go 3-for-4 with 4 RBI’s on Wednesday; he was a key factor in this win against Greensboro (Braves A) in which the team also enjoyed a two-home-run eighth-inning to put the game comfortably enough out of reach.

The Royals recently added their newest draft picks to the organization, so it seems like a good time to look back and how their past draft classes have fared. Five years later, how are their 2021 draftees performing?

Unlike drafts in the NFL and NBA, the MLB Draft isn’t simply a matter of taking the best player available. Every pick in the first ten rounds comes with an assigned slot value, and each club has a capped bonus pool to sign its entire draft class. Teams can pay draft picks the full slot value, or they can allocate the funds in uneven ways with some draft picks getting less than slot value and others getting much more.

This strategy is called drafting a player “underslot.” By selecting a player willing to sign for below the slot value of your first-round pick, a team can free up bonus pool money to spend later in the draft. That extra money can be used to entice hard-to-sign prospects, usually high school players who can use college as leverage if they don’t receive an acceptable offer, to sign for well above the slot value of where they are selected. The strategy can be especially effective in draft classes without a clear-cut top prospect but with considerable depth, allowing teams to spread their resources across multiple high-upside players rather than concentrating them in a single pick. It is similar to the strategy of “trading down” in other drafts, but since MLB does not allow teams to swap picks, they instead use the underslot strategy.

That was the strategy the Royals employed in 2021 when they had the seventh overall pick. There was no consensus top pick that year, with Louisville catcher Henry Davis, Vanderbilt pitchers Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker, high school pitcher Jackson Jobe, and prep infielders Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawlar, Khalil Watson, and Brady House among the top names. With no clear dichotomy between tiers, it seemed the Royals were in a good position to land a talented player at pick #7.

“The beauty of the opportunity we’re in is that there are going to be several options in front of us,” scouting director Lonnie Goldberg said.

Leading up to the draft there was a lot of buzz linking the Royals to Rocker, who had wowed scouts pitching for the Commodores in the College World Series. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel wrote Rocker-to-the-Royals was “looking like one of the more likely picks in the mock.”

However he had some fluctuations in velocity that spring and his advisor Scott Boras refused to submit Rocker to pre-draft MRI testing. Rocker fell to the Mets at #10, and failed to sign after the Mets did not make an offer after his physical. Rocker would be selected by the Rangers third overall the next year and is currently in their starting rotation.

The Royals were also connected to many of the prep infielders, with Jim Callis at MLB Pipeline writing that the team was “believed to prefer a hitter.” They were said to be interested in Lawlar and Watson, but the buzz was about House, a prep infielder from Georgia, who Keith Law of The Athletic characterized as having “sort of been the Royals’ guy.” There was also some buzz the Royals could take infielder Will Taylor, a speedy high school outfielder from South Carolina whom most observers ranked outside the top ten.

The draft got off to a surprising start with the Pirates bypassing Mayer to take Davis, the Louisville catcher. The Rangers snagged Leiter, and the Tigers took a gamble on Jobe. The Red Sox pounced on Mayer, and the Orioles went with an underslot selection by taking Sam Houston State outfielder Colton Cowser. Arizona took Lawlar, leaving the Royals with several options they were connected to, including Rocker, House, and Watson.

The Royals zagged and took Connecticut high school pitcher Frank Mozzicato, who Baseball America ranked as the #42 prospect in the draft. David Schoenfield at ESPN wrote that the selection “certainly qualifies as the most surprising pick so far.” Mozzicato had pitched in the Northeast, generally not a hotbed of baseball talent, and had avoided national tournaments. His fastball sat in the upper 80s, but scouts were wowed by a plus curve that helped him throw four no-hitters. Ben Badler at Baseball America wrote that while it was “surprising to see him go this high,” he loved Mozzicato’s upside and that the lefty had a “ton of projection arrows pointing the right way.”

The Royals selected him because he would take an underslot deal, allowing them flexibility later in the draft. Mozzicato would sign for $3.55 million, well under the $5.43 million slot value.

“We felt that going into this particular Draft,” general manager Dayton Moore said, “if it fell the way it did up top, with the first six picks in front of us [and] with the fact that it’s only 20 rounds and the value that a lot of players put on themselves economically, that it may be a wise strategy to not only look at taking the best upside player or pitcher available, but also be able to maximize what we could do later on with the other 19 selections. That’s part of what we have to consider going forward.”

The Royals went to work using that financial flexibility to take a pair of local kids in the next two rounds. In the second round, they selected pitcher Ben Kudrna out of Blue Valley Southwest in Overland Park, Kansas, ranked #47 by Baseball America. In round three they chose #82-ranked prospect catcher Carter Jensen out of Park Hill High School in Kansas City. Kudrna signed for $3 million, well over his $1.73 slot value, while Jensen signed for $1.1 million, more than his $793,000 slot value. The Royals also went overslot the next round with prep pitcher Shane Panzini, giving him nearly $1 million. They even went overslot on some later picks, like college pitcher Eric Cerantola and college catcher Luca Tresh.

The gambit was criticized as an “exercise in hubris”, as argued by Matthew LaMar on our site.

It is dangerous to think you’re smarter than the consensus. Beyond that, it is dangerous to draft high school pitchers, especially if your organization has a long and putrid track record of doing so successfully. For the Royals to double down on that is frustrating.

Mozzicato never really added the velocity scouts hoped for, and while his curve fooled hitters at lower levels, he struggled with his control at Double-A. Rocker’s medicals and bonus demands perhaps caused the Royals to pass, and while he did need Tommy John surgery, he now seems to be developing into a solid starter. House and Watson both reached the majors, although neither has developed into much of an offensive force. It’s difficult to argue either would have transformed the Royals, but they would have provided considerably more value than Mozzicato has to date.

The Mozzicato deal did allow them to grab Carter Jensen, who has 14 home runs, fifth among all rookies, and has been an above-average bat. Kudrna had a promising career until he hit Triple-A, and he underwent elbow surgery this year that will keep him out for a while.

The Royals also did well with another local kid later in the draft, with Noah Cameron in round seven. The St. Joseph native was an underrated prospect out of the University of Central Arkansas, but he rose through the ranks and had an impressive rookie season in 2025 in the Royals starting rotation.

Much of the rest of the draft class is already out of baseball. Peyton Wilson is a utility infielder at the Triple-A level who was recently passed over in favor of older vets, so there may not be a future for him with the Royals. Tyson Guerrero was on the cusp of a potential call-up until he started experiencing injury issues. Tresh has been a solid bat at the Triple-A level and could be a backup catcher someday.

The 2021 draft illustrates both the promise and the peril of the underslot strategy. The Royals turned one unconventional first-round pick into the financial flexibility to sign several talented high school prospects, and that approach helped land Carter Jensen, who has emerged as one of the best players from the class. But the strategy also hinges on identifying the right player with that first pick.

It is fine to reach for a player the rest of the market is overlooking, but you have to be right. Mozzicato does not seem likely to be a worthwhile pick and is a miss for evaluators that overlooked his slight frame and lack of competition. Fortunately, the Royals did find a few gems in their backyard to make this a decent draft class, but a small market team cannot afford to miss the mark on top-ten picks.

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The Detroit Tigers head into tonight's series opener with the Kansas City Royals as a heavy -203 moneyline favorite. 

Those odds are warranted, and with Troy Melton on the hill, my Royals vs. Tigers predictions expect the hosts to win this contest comfortably. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Thursday, July 23. 

Who will win Royals vs Tigers today: Tigers -1.5 (-107)

The Kansas City Royals send Randy Dobnak to the mound tonight. While he hasn't allowed a ton of runs lately, the underlying metrics are concerning. Dobnak has a 5.63 xERA over his last three appearances.

More importantly, Dobnak rarely pitches deeper than the fourth or fifth inning, which could expose a Royals bullpen in horrible form. Kansas City's relief corps owns a 7.63 FIP over the last week while allowing 3.10 HR/9.

As for the Detroit Tigers, they counter with Troy Melton. He has been dominant, posting a 1.78 FIP across his previous four outings.

Detroit takes advantage of KC's pitching issues, and Melton continues to deal. I'll play this pick up to -130.

COVERS INTEL: The Royals bullpen has also given up 3.13 HR/9 over the last two weeks. That's substantially worse than their season average of 1.53 HR/9.

Royals vs Tigers Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+105)

This total sits at 8.5, and there are enough bullpen concerns to lean toward the Over. Dobnak won't be in there long, which could expose the Royals' pen early. 

Detroit’s bullpen hasn’t been phenomenal either, posting a 4.71 xERA over its last 21 innings. Kansas City has been productive lately with a 106 wRC+ over its last six games, while the Tigers have shown some power with a .194 ISO during that same span.

Melton can limit damage early, but the bullpen inconsistencies create scoring paths late.

I’ll play this pick up to -120.

Royals vs Tigers weather

Conditions should be excellent at Comerica Park tonight, with clear skies and temperatures falling from the upper 70s to the low 70s during the game window. There is no rain concern, and conditions should stay calm overall. Weather should have minimal impact on scoring and ball carry.

Royals vs Tigers odds

• Moneyline: Royals +194 | Tigers -203
• Run line: Royals +1.5 (-104) | Tigers -1.5 (-100)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+108) | Under 8.5 (-113)

Royals vs Tigers trend

The Royals have hit the Over in 21 of their last 35 away games (+5.75 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Tigers.

How to watch Royals vs Tigers and game info

Royals vs Tigers latest injuries

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It’s an early one for this series finale. Let us know what you’re having for lunch (or breakfast, PT folks) as we gear up for a 12:15 pm ET first pitch.

ICYMI

Pitching preview

Lineups

2026 MLB Draft Tracker

Three players the Braves need to acquire before the 2026 trade deadline

On August 22, 1952, the Red Sox sold the contract of a 35-year-old swingman to their arch rivals. “He was no help to us,” said Lou Boudreau, Boston’s manager, bitterly. “I gave him plenty of chances to start and relieve and he didn’t come through.”

In the midst of a pennant race, the mighty Yankees were adding a past-his-prime hurler to help eat some innings. If Boudreau, a future Hall of Famer, was correct in his analysis, the Yankees were hoping to draw blood from a stone. They’d end up getting some of the best pitching of Ray Scarborough’s career.

Ray Wilson Scarborough
Born: July 23, 1917 (Mount Gilead, NC)
Died: July 1, 1982 (Mount Olive, NC)
Yankees Tenure: 1952-53

Ray Scarborough grew up in North Carolina, the son of Oscar, a general store operator and cotton broker, and Bina. He graduated from Wake Forest University in 1942 and began work as a science teacher. But his right arm was promising enough that he also played for semipro teams in the area. Joe Engel, the legendary scout who also inked deals with Hall of Famers Joe Cronin and Goose Goslin, saw enough to sign Scarborough to play in the Senators’ system.

After winning 21 games and setting a league record with 220 strikeouts at Class-B Selma in 1941, he began the following season at Class-A Chattanooga before getting the call to the bigs on June 26, 1942. The 24-year-old made 12 relief appearances for Washington before drawing his first start in the second game of a doubleheader on September 3. Scarborough held the White Sox off the board and went the distance, earning a shutout victory and a spot in the rotation the rest of the way. Shirley Povich, the legendary sportswriter who spent 65 years at the Washington Post, reported that the rookie had “pitched a beaut.”

Scarborough pitched to a 2.83 ERA in 86 innings in 1943 before reporting for duty with the Navy. He spent all of 1944 and ‘45 in the service, returning for the 1946 season. Scarborough had a career year in 1948, winning 15 games for the 97-loss Senators while recording a 154 ERA+.

That breakout campaign made him a hot commodity around the league, as no less than five teams attempted to poach him via a trade with the lowly Senators. Among them was the Red Sox, who’d finished a game back of Cleveland for the pennant in 1948 following a one-game tiebreaker playoff. Scarborough had held Boston to two runs in a complete-game victory on September 28th, an outing widely blamed for their ouster.

Scarborough stayed in Washington for the ‘49 season and, while he had a bit of a down year, he once again played spoiler, pitching a one-run complete game to beat the Red Sox 2-1 a year to the day after he’d last doomed them. Boston finished one game shy of the pennant once again, this time behind the Yankees. “It wasn’t the Yanks, it was Ray Scarborough,” wrote Ted Williams years later. “Scarborough was just one of those pitchers that baffled us.”

In 1950, it looked like the Red Sox might finally get their white whale. “Both Red Sox, Yankees Vie for Washington’s Ray Scarborough: Veteran Probably Could Win Pennant for Either,” read one comically optimistic headline from a Boston sportswriter. Instead, he ended up flipped to the White Sox, where he struggled, posting a 5.30 ERA in 27 appearances. That December, the Red Sox finally swung a trade to acquire their longtime foe.

As Boudreau lamented, Scarborough’s time with Boston was not nearly as productive as his time pitching against them. After his ERA surpassed 5.00 in a year and a half there, the Red Sox cut bait, putting him on waivers and selling his contract to the Yankees. At 35, he pitched like a man reborn for Casey Stengel. Splitting time between the rotation and bullpen, he pitched to a 2.91 ERA in nine appearances down the stretch. He earned the victory in five of the Yankees’ final 28 games, playing a key role as they edged Cleveland for the pennant by two games.

When asked about this sudden turnaround, the veteran was magnanimous. “I never realized Yogi Berra was such a smart catcher,” he offered by way of explanation. The man who’d wallowed on bad Washington teams most of his career even got the chance to pitch in the World Series, allowing one run in an inning of work in the opener as the Yankees beat the Dodgers in a seven-game classic, securing their fourth consecutive title.

Scarborough stuck around in the Bronx for the 1953 campaign, pitching reasonably well (3.29 ERA in 54.2 innings) before getting released to make way for younger talent as the Yankees won yet another championship. His 3.15 ERA as a Yankee — albeit in a much smaller sample than his seven years in Washington — would be his best mark with any team. After a brief stint with the Tigers, he retired at the age of 36.

After his retirement, Scarborough returned home to Mount Olive, NC, running an oil and supply company while staying involved with the game of baseball. He had stints with multiple organizations over the years, serving as both a coach and a scout.

Ray Scarborough died of a heart attack on July 1, 1982, three weeks before his 65th birthday. His impact on the Yankees organization runs far deeper than his brief tenure with the team. Between his excellent run down the stretch in 1952 and his confounding of the Red Sox in 1949, he was a significant force in securing two Yankees pennants — something many far more decorated players cannot say.

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

The Phillies may have the best record in baseball since Don Mattingly took over as manager, but they haven’t looked particularly prepared to play the last two nights.

Philadelphia ran itself out of an inning again during this painful series against the Dodgers, with second baseman Bryson Stott running on contact with one out in the fifth inning of the 9-5 loss Wednesday.

Despite the ball being hit in front of him, Scott ran right into the waiting arms of third baseman Max Muncy for the second out in a 3-3 game.

The Phillies did not score again in the inning.

“Down to third to [Max] Muncy and Stott runs into an out,” the Dodgers broadcaster Joe Davis said on the call. “What are these guys doing?”

“No clue,” color analyst Orel Hershiser responded.

The Phillies own an impressive 47-28 record since Mattingly took over as the team’s manager after Rob Thomson was fired following a 9-19 start, but this baserunning over the last two nights has cost them.

Philadelphia lost two of three from the Dodgers, and the Phillies broadcast team wasn’t happy either when they lost Tuesday’s one-run game on a game-ending 5-2-6-4 double play.

Stott normally would not be be running on contact on this play, as he’s already in scoring position, so running into an out at third base is a terrible move considering he should be able to score on a hit.

Players are also not supposed to run to third when the ball is hit in front of them.

Making it even worse for the Phillies, their best hitter, Kyle Schwarber, was on deck, although he ultimately popped out to end the threat.

Mattingly was never viewed as a bad manager with the Dodgers and Marlins for struggles with his teams on the basepaths; rather, he was known for poor bullpen management and over-reliance on small ball.

San Diego Padres (50-52) at Atlanta Braves (59-42), July 23, 2026, 9:15 a.m. PST

Watch: Padres.TV

Location: Truist Park – Atlanta, GA

Listen: 97.3 The Fan

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The Cleveland Guardians have a good problem in a star shortstop prospect who is knocking on the door of the big leagues.

In case you’ve missed it, Angel Genao is a 22 year-old switch-hitting shortstop prospect currently in Columbus for the Guardians’ Triple-A team. In 61 games, Genao has a 130 wRC+, 14.1/12.5 K/BB%, with a .303/.391/.469 slashline and 6 stolen bases. His splits are roughly even over the past two years, with his right-handed hitting his slightly stronger side. He is also an excellent defender and at Triple-A has played 44 games at shortstop, 10 games at third base, and 6 games at second base. Also, his name is not Genoa so please update your autocorrects, accordingly.

Genao is a hot streak away from really proving he needs a major league chance, but his numbers already stand out. Since 2017, these are the top five shortstop hitting performances at Triple-A for players 22 years and younger:

JJ Wetherholt, 22 years old, 164 wRC+

Elly De La Cruz, 21-22 years old, 151 wRC+

Wander Franco, 20-21 years old, 151 wRC+

Gunnar Henderson, 21-22 years old, 140 wRC+

Angel Genao, 22 years old, 131 wRC+

Genao does hit way too many groundballs at 55%, but his 90 mph average exit velocity and 45% hard-hit rate helps minimize the launch angle issues. If you see Genao left in Columbus or traded in a big deal, it will be because he pounds the ball into the ground. But, hitting the ball hard and pulling it as he does effectively (50%) should give him a chance to make a less than ideal launch angle work if he can even see a 5-10% reduction on groundballs moved to line drives and fly balls.

I think there is a chance that bringing Genao up to play second base and temporarily moving Travis Bazzana to DH, then playing Bazzana at second base and Genao at third when Jose DH’s may become the Guardians’ ideal lineup at some point, perhaps near to today. Bazzana’s future defensive home may be in left field or at second base, but his work at second is a negative right now.

It is possible that Genao may be a piece in a big trade for a right-handed slugger or for a starting pitcher. But, given his production and age, that could be a mistake for the Guardians. They may want to try Genao in centerfield if they think Bazzana can stick at second, but some plans should be forming to get another Guardian Angel on this team soon.

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It's a small slate Thursday with fewer pitchers to fade and MLB player props to dig into, but there are certainly some dingers showing value on the board.

Shane Bieber is the best home run target today, and some left-handed bats have a big bump with no good left-handed arms in the Jays' bullpen. Bieber's reverse splits are also making Junior Caminero and that swing very appetizing at his current odds.

In the late game, there is another reverse-split matchup with Dillon Dingler that is showing legit value.

These are my favorite home run props for Thursday, July 23.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Victor Mesa Jr.	+563
Junior Caminero	+245
Dillon Dingler	+569
💲Today's HR parlay	+12839

Home run pick: Victor Mesa Jr. (+563)

Eight home runs in just 38 games and 120 plate appearances is pretty impressive for the rookie outfielder, and he's heating up in a hurry with three homers since Saturday, including two in this series against Toronto.

Victor Mesa Jr. is a left-handed bat, but the pinch-hit risk is minimal today with Toronto likely having just one lefty available in the bullpen — Brendon Little and his 17.61 ERA.

He'll open the game against Shane Bieber, who is coming off a strong outing against the White Sox, but the underlying numbers are still ugly. Bieber ranks in the Bottom 10 among starters in both HR/9 and HR/FB rate, and no starter owns a worse BlastContact% this season.

Seven of the 29 hits he's allowed have left the yard through just five starts. The walks are climbing, and the meatballs keep getting crushed.

One stat that really stands out is the swing speed against Bieber. No starter has a higher average swing speed against at 74.1 mph, and 48.6% of swings against him qualify as "fast swings" of at least 75 mph. Hitters are taking absolute hacks against him.

The Tampa bats project well today, and Mesa is a buy for me down to +500.

• Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Sportsnet, Rays.TV

Home run pick: Junior Caminero (+245)

Let's keep picking on Bieber, but this time I'm going to the right side because the reverse splits are very real.

Right-handed hitters are batting .396 against Bieber this season compared to just .208 for lefties. There are a few appealing Tampa Bay right-handed bats today, but I'm not getting cute.

Junior Caminero owns the fastest average swing speed in baseball at 79.8 mph, and 88% of his swings register at 75 mph or higher. You can't cheat that kind of bat speed, and it's a big reason why his underlying hitting metrics are among the league's best.

The matchup couldn't be much better. Bieber allows the fastest average swing speed against of any MLB starter, meaning hitters are loading up and taking full cuts against him. That's exactly the profile you want for a power hitter like Caminero.

Reverse splits aren't always fully priced into the market, so there's still value here. The break-even price should be around +225.

• Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Sportsnet, Rays.TV

Home run pick: Dillon Dingler (+569)

Dillon Dingler continues to offer value against right-handed pitching because he's a true reverse-splits hitter who crushes righties. He owns a .928 OPS against RHPs this season, and 18 of his 22 home runs have come against them.

He's also in the middle of a power binge after launching three homers in the Cubs series while going 7-for-12 with a ridiculous 2.032 OPS at Wrigley.

Detroit gets Triple-A arm Randy Dobnak, whose 1.93 ERA paints a much prettier picture than his underlying numbers. His 5.61 xERA and 5.68 FIP suggest regression is coming, and his LOB% and BABIP have been carrying him.

This is a great home run price for a reverse-splits hitter in excellent form against a pitcher who has been living on borrowed time.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Royals.TV, DSN 

Today’s HR parlay

Victor Mesa Jr.	Bet Now +12839
Junior Caminero
Dillon Dingler

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