FORT MYERS, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 13: Connelly Early #71 of the Boston Red Sox reacts with Payton Tolle #70 of the Boston Red Sox during a workout at JetBlue Park at Fenway South on February 13, 2026 in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It’s pitching preview time, ladies and gentlemen. Over the next several days, I’ll be writing 10,000 words or so about everyone you might see pitching for the Red Sox to start the season. I’ve put the team’s starting options into tiers because that’s how my brain works. Don’t think of them as rankings, but rather buckets based on some similarities I see.
This is where I remind you that these tiers aren’t rankings, but groupings of similar players. Payton Tolle or Connelly Early could end up starting game two or three of a playoff series for the Red Sox and I wouldn’t be overly surprised. With too many options for too few spots, at least one of these two likely starts the season in Worcester.
Payton Tolle
2025 in a sentence: Tolle’s debut set the world on fire, but the rest of his season failed to live up to those heights.
Unless you’re brand new to Red Sox baseball and are truly using this piece to get up to speed on the roster, you probably already have thoughts about Payton Tolle. Everyone who’s followed the offseason knows that Tolle has a great fastball, and nothing else. In his second start, the Arizona Diamondbacks knew that he had nothing else, waited for fastballs, and hit the snot out of them.
Two things can be true at the same time: Tolle has an excellent fastball, and Tolle can’t throw his fastball 65% of the time. While the pitch is outstanding – 97 mph with a flat approach angle and 7.5 feet of extension – it was hit because opponents knew he had to throw it.
In 2024, Garrett Crochet put together a solid season using 54% four-seams and 28% cutters. He mixed in other pitches as well, but the two fastballs accounted for most of his arsenal. You can succeed with just two pitches, but you have to be able to locate them. Crochet spotted his cutter inside to righties and away from lefties consistently. Tolle’s cutter heatmap looked more like a Rorschach test than a game plan. Against righties in particular, Tolle’s cutters found the middle of the plate far too often. If he wants to live with two pitches, he has to locate them well.
Based on Tolle’s quotes this offseason, he doesn’t seem content trying to live with two pitches. He’s mentioned improving his changeup on more than one occasion and said he was throwing a curveball as well. I’ve told everyone willing to listen that he should add a sinker to his mix, and he appeared to be toying with that based on some Trackman live batting practice outputs.
Tolle set the bar for himself impossibly high with his debut against the Pirates. He rose to the majors so quickly that it’s easy to forget that 2025 was his first professional season. He didn’t even have a Wikipedia page at the time he was called up. If Oviedo is a sculpture waiting on the finishing touches, Tolle is a ball of clay that was just harvested from a riverbank or wherever they get clay. Do you harvest clay? Collect it? Is clay even the most common sculpting material? I don’t know. I’m a baseball nerd, not an art geek. Regardless, Tolle can go a million different directions with his arsenal and still has plenty of time to figure it out. The sky’s the limit for the rookie.
2025 in a sentence: Early came out of nowhere and really impressed in a short cameo down the stretch.
Connelly Early started a do-or-die playoff game for the Red Sox last season. I didn’t even include him in last year’s starting pitching preview. I was a nervous wreck before the game, but prime Pedro could have been on the mound, and I still would have been nervous because there’s something wrong with me. The point is, Early was far from the source of my stress, which speaks to how rapid his ascent was.
Early’s debut was equally as impressive as Tolle’s, but it took place in Sacramento at 10 pm EST on a Tuesday, so responsible people were in bed. I was watching and went to bed with my expectations for Early shattered as he struck out 11 over five innings. A week later, he faced the same lineup in Fenway Park and allowed one run over 5.1 innings with a different plan of attack. In his first start, he didn’t throw a single sinker to a right-handed hitter. In the rematch, it accounted for 25% of his arsenal. That level of pitchability from a 23-year-old was surprising, to say the least.
Early faced 22 lefties over his four regular-season starts, surrendering hits to three, walking one, and striking out 13. He also hit one batter. He used a pretty standard approach, throwing sinkers inside and breaking balls away. His sweeper was particularly devastating to lefties, generating ten whiffs on 20 pitches. If there’s a knock on Early against lefties, it’s that he left his four-seam fastball over the plate too frequently. At 94 mph with seven feet of extension and a flat approach angle, he has some room for error, but good hitters will punish these mistakes should they persist.
Righties had more success, hitting .259 and striking out 28.1% of the time as opposed to the 59.1% lefties did, but they still only managed one extra-base hit against the lefty. Early used his four-seam against righties 33% of the time, and it was effective. The 61% strike rate was on the low side for a primary offering, but the 12.5% swinging strike rate and 25% ideal contact rate were each excellent. He was also able to spot first-pitch sliders on the glove side for early strikes. Ahead of righties, he turned to his curveball and changeup. Each pitch generated chases at a high rate, but it was the curveball that got more whiffs. His changeup was the pitch evaluators were most impressed by, but the out-of-zone contact rate was high at 76.5%. The pitch shows great velocity and movement separation from his fastball, so I’d expect that number to fall in a larger sample. A lefty with big extension, a good changeup, and multiple breaking balls he can throw in and out of the zone is basically the ideal pitcher. It’s only a four-game sample, with two games against the A’s, but it’s hard to be anything but excited about Early.
While all of the numbers are impressive, and Early passed the eye test, I do want to pump the brakes a little bit. The lefty has struck out hitters at every level, but he’s also walked them. He walked only four of the 79 hitters he faced in the majors (5.1%), but his much longer minor league career walk rate is 9.1%. The stuff is there, and his command looked refined in his late-season cameo, but don’t be surprised if there are some growing pains in year two.
CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA - FEBRUARY 20: Kon Knueppel #7 of the Charlotte Hornets shoots the ball over Dean Wade #32 of the Cleveland Cavaliers during the second half of the basketball game at Spectrum Center on February 20, 2026 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by David Jensen/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Former Blue Devil Kon Knueppel passed Donovan Mitchell for the second-most threes made by a rookie in an NBA season with 185. Coincidentally, the three that pushed him past Donovan was made…over Donovan.
Keegan Murray holds the record with 206, set in 2023.
Charlotte has 25 regular season games left and Knueppel is averaging 3.4 threes per game. If he keeps that pace, he’ll shatter that record with 272-273 made threes.
He’s also averaging 18.8 points and 5.5 rebounds while shooting 43.2% on three-point attempts. The only players in NBA history to average at least 15 points and five rebounds per game while shooting over 40 percent from 3-point range were Larry Bird and Paul Pierce, which puts Knueppel in some pretty elite company – and he’s just a rookie!
GOODYEAR, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 19: Chase DeLauter #24 of the Cleveland Guardians poses for a portrait during photo day at Goodyear Ballpark on February 19, 2026 in Goodyear, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) | Getty Images
We all know that Spring Training results don’t matter, but which players are you most interested in following until Opening Day?
Is it Chase DeLauter and his messianic outfield bat?
Is it Daniel Espino and his inspiring comeback story?
Is it Travis Bazzana and his attempt to justify the Guardians choosing him 1.1?
Is it one of the six starting pitchers competing for a role in the Opening Day rotation?
Is it Peyton Pallette and his Rule 5 selection?
Is it Stuart Fairchild, the Guardians one offseason outfield addition?
Is it David Fry coming back from getting TJ and then getting hit in the face?
Or, is it someone else? Let us know in the comments below!
1998, Flushing, NY, USA; FILE PHOTO; New York Mets pitcher John Franco in action on the mound at Shea Stadium during the 1998 season. Mandatory Credit: RVR Photos-Imagn Images
This post is part of a series of daily questions that we’ll ask the community here at Amazin’ Avenue throughout the month of February. We hope you find the questions engaging and that our prompts can spark some fun conversations in the comments. We’ll see you there and plan to have staff chiming in, too.
How do you feel about Steve Cohen not wanting a captain on the Mets?
We’re all coming around on the Brooklyn Nets’ 2025 NBA Draft, so widely mocked that the Phoenix Suns didn’t mind gasping at it on social media. The Nets themselves are probably feeling better about their draft too, if you believe last summer’s rumors that Brooklyn tried to trade one or two of their five first-round picks, but couldn’t find a suitor. Since then, Egor Demin hasn’t missed a three, and there have been flashes from the others too.
I know I feel a bit better about it, though it hasn’t been all smooth sailing. On January 23rd, I posted this: “32 rookies have taken 50+ two-pointers. Bottom three in 2P%: Danny Wolf, Egor Dëmin, Nolan Traore.”
For good measure, Wolf had the lowest 2P% among any NBA player 6’11” or taller, and Traore was tied for the lowest 2P% in the league. The case against the Flatbush Five was still very easy to make, and it wasn’t that they had redundantskillsets. That analysis was always lame.
Rather, Brooklyn drafted guys that struggled with either physicality, explosiveness, or both, and the one plus-athlete they did draft almost never handled the ball. That was a tough pill to swallow, particularly after watching the incredible physicality of last year’s playoffs. It’s a motor league.
It's a motor league.
-Speed and Distance -Depth for maintain 48min physical energy. -Sum of all ball-pressure by hand for detering pass/drive. -Bumping capability of both ends.
But two-thirds of the way through this season, none of Brooklyn’s selections look particularly egregious. I’m still concerned about their high-end outcomes — how much ball-handling will Egor Dëmin provide in a playoff setting? how much can Danny Wolf compensate for a lack of vertical pop around the rim? — but we’re not talking about high-end outcomes just yet.
Not every member of Brooklyn’s 2025 NBA Draft class will become a valuable rotation player. Some may never crack a playoff rotation. But all of them still have a chance. All of them have shown something to put faith in.
Egor Dëmin
This is most true for Egor Dëmin and his 3-point shooting. At BYU, he shot 27.3% from deep on 10 3PA per 100 possessions. Through 48 games in Brooklyn, he’s shooting 38.8% from deep on nearly 13 3PA per 100 possessions. This just doesn’t happen. It doesn’t make sense.
Yes, his stroke always looked better than those numbers did, and yes, he played through a knee injury at BYU, and yes, his pre-NCAA shooting numbers were better. It’s still unfathomable. Given his pre-draft profile, Dëmin may be in the midst of the most miraculous 3-point shooting season a rookie has ever put forth.
Get to know Dëmin, though, and it makes sense. The baby-faced Russian teenager will talk your ear off about his cat, or about English words he’s struggling to pronounce, or why roasting marshmallows around the campfire at BYU beats tapping the keg anywhere else, everything except his unprecedented shooting turnaround. Only then will Dëmin revert to a cliché, shrug his shoulders, and cite the work he’s put in. He really isn’t surprised by this.
It’s enough to warm a cynic’s cold heart, to believe that this cherubic sniper will take over the NBA with overwhelming levels of being dope, having fun, smiling, etc…
No rookie has changed their perception more than Dëmin through 50-something games. Sure, he makes a cool extra pass here and there and an intriguing kick-out with the snap of a wrist, but my man was getting Josh Giddey comparisons last summer. He is not a jumbo-handler, nor a primary ball-handler with excellent vision. Dëmin is a catch-and-shoot threat with everything else to work on, and while his worst games — when the shots don’t fall — are indeed worrisome, Nets fans don’t have to panic too much about that yet.
Look at this, man…
tough night vs OKC but Egor's shooting season is crazy
thinks about going to get the handoff, split-second decision to C&S instead, cashes it pic.twitter.com/xAE46P9XnM
Every live-game rep is valuable. And you can trust Dëmin, universally praised for his work ethic and attention to detail, to make the most of them. But in terms of analysis, we don’t need to see much more from him this season. Are there really going to be ball-handling/driving improvements before he spends much more time in the weight room over the next couple years?
At 6’9”, his block/steal/deflection rates are all average, giving him something of a defensive floor. He often guards opponents’ low-usage wings — against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Thursday night, he started on Dean Wade.
I find his processing/playmaking to be most intriguing. The common refrain, for now, is that we don’t get to see his high-level passing much because he can’t get downhill, and while that’s partly true, it’s also an oversimplification. Dëmin has tossed some dimes as a spot-up guy, taking advantages of defenses rotating over to him — he loves looking off help defenders — but I think he’s also missed high-level opportunities. Ziaire Williams should probably have a layup here…
Dëmin has tossed just 54 rim assists in 1205 minutes, per PBP Stats, or one every 22.3 minutes. That matches, almost exactly … Cam Thomas. There’s no doubt Dëmin is a willing passer, particularly hungry to make kick-outs, but I’m most curious to see how his playmaking progress over the next season or two.
The Brooklyn Nets drafted a weird player at #8 overall, but that’s not an inherent negative. Egor Dëmin is a certified sniper and a powerfully optimistic young man. He scares the hell out of me sometimes, given how reliant he is on spot-up threes, but I’m rocking with him.
Nolan Traore
Nolan!! He was so bad early on. Teenage point guards are rarely productive, but it seemed like Traore was two years away from being two years away. On January 23rd, he was shooting 33.3% inside the arc. As I mentioned up top, that was tied with the minuscule Rob Dillingham for the worst mark in the league. Turns out my reverse jinx worked.
That night, he had the finest game of his career to date, putting up 21 points in that double OT loss to the Boston Celtics. With the necessary caveat that the stretch run before All-Star Weekend marks the true dog days of the NBA, Traore hasn’t looked back since.
The French teenager is 40-of-75 from two since January 23rd; he’s now shooting 44.4% on the season. At this rate, he could clear 50% by daylight savings time. What the hell happened?
First, Jordi Fernández gave him some tough love after a big loss to the Washington Wizards: “I need him to use his superpowers and touch the paint. It felt like he got caught shooting the unders. And a lot of times they’re going to go under because that’s what they want you to do. And if you keep shooting it, missing them, you know, sometimes if you keep doing the same thing and seeing the same results, I think that’s the definition of insanity … I’m okay with a pull-up three, [but] I don’t love it because he hasn’t shown that he can make it consistently.”
And here’s what that adjustment looks like for Traore…
Fernández is right: Per Synergy Sports, Traore is scoring just 0.79 points per off-the-dribble jumper, a 26th percentile mark league-wide. (Compare that to his 1.03 points per catch-and-shoot jumper, 38th percentile league-wide.)
But when Traore is using a screen, then a re-screen, then finding an angle to attack, you see his prodigious speed in action. Of course, he looks so much more comfortable than he did at season’s beginning, putting defenders in jail and getting to two feet to pivot around. His assist-to-turnover ratio is nearing 2:1, and those jump-stops in the lane are a big reason why.
Other than patience and poise, the big key for Traore is how far he can probe into the lane with a live-dribble. That was the most worrisome part of his prospect profile to me — here was a speedy, penetrating guard whose handle was suspect in tight spaces. Traore has done a much better job lately extending his dribble, though old habits still rear their ugly head from time to time. You can see the difference in these two plays:
Is Traore bendy/crafty enough to excel with his skinny frame? We’ll see. But this past month of play has been thrilling. Perhaps he’s not two years away from being two years away.
Drake Powell
I don’t really have a ton to say about Drake Powell because he doesn’t really do a ton on the court. He’s fallen below 15% usage, though that shouldn’t be a shock for a first-round pick with one of the lowest usage-rates of all time in his pre-draft year.
That by itself isn’t particularly worrying, though after some early season performances like his 15/3/3 game against the New York Knicks, where he moonlighted as lead ball-handler for the second unit, I thought we’d avoid Kris Dunn-level offensive responsibility. I mean, the flashes are there, including his 47% conversion rate on mid-range shots, per Cleaning the Glass…
Alas, the handle/processing is pretty far away from being able to shoulder any real offensive burden. Oh well.
I’m more concerned about Powell’s catch-and-shoot deficiencies: After scoring 1.18 points per shot on catch-and-shoot jumpers at UNC, he’s down to 0.87 points per possession (16th percentile) in the pros. Small sample, rookie year, I get it. But if defenses don’t feel the need to close out to Powell, it gets a little spooky.
Not to pile on, but the defensive creation hasn’t been there either. Low block/steal rates, and he’s tied with Danny Wolf and Michael Porter Jr. in deflections per minute, toward the bottom of the team. The rebounding numbers are low, too. So right now, the question is simply: What does Drake Powell do?
I don’t know yet. He probably needs to put on some real muscle this summer and next, but before then, Powell can keep taking advantage of Brooklyn’s increased pace. The Nets are no longer one of the slowest, fastbreak-avoidant teams in the league, and that should grant Powell more opportunity to explore.
Thanks to his archetype, raw athleticism, and flashes of on-ball defense, coaches and front offices will keep giving him the benefit of the doubt. That includes Jordi Fernández. But over the final third of this season, I’d like to see one consistent skill from Powell, whatever that may be.
Danny Wolf
Danny Wolf is no longer shooting the lowest 2-point% of any player 6’11” or taller, minimum 50 attempts. Hooray! (That’s because, since January 23rd, Christian Koloko and Hansen Yang have qualified. Wolf hasn’t passed anybody.)
Wolf had a couple strong games against a couple really bad teams before All-Star Weekend, where Fernández put the ball in his hands a bit more. He opened up about the experience: “The last month, two months, it’s a lot of learning. I was playing off the ball, and for me, it’s just like, I felt a little bit too sped up. But there’s gonna be games where that’s my role. And then when coach does give me the ball and trusts me with it, it’s on me to make the right play. I think for me, it was just — I know I’m a work in progress, especially off the ball.”
Wolf will have to make 3-point shots; only time will tell if he’s capable. But now that he’s not shooting 50% from three anymore, like he was when he burst onto the scene, it’s been pretty rough going on offense. Some of it certainly is being too sped up — you can see it when he tries to dribble through a crowd — but so much of it is a lack of vertical pop.
He gets fouled here, but at 6’11” with a full head of steam and taking off from the restricted area, you gotta try and dunk this or something…
So yeah, I’m pretty worried about his scoring profile. Not much else to say there.
That being said, Wolf’s defense in isolation has been a pleasant surprise of his rookie year. Anytime a (non-Jimmy Butler) player tries to size him up, it typically does more to stunt the offense rather than truly expose Wolf. Considering his above-average block/rebound numbers in a beefy front-court next to Day’Ron Sharpe, I’d say that end of the floor has been a positive in his rookie year.
Elsewhere, his assist:turnover ratio is also nearing 2:1, and as we saw at Michigan, many of his best passes go to Day’Ron Sharpe or Nic Claxton as pick-and-roll lobs or dump-offs around the rim. Given his 3-point heavy shot diet and particular passing strengths, I think it’s safe to say the Nets have a position in mind for him going forward.
Over the final third of the season, I’d love to see Wolf either sweep his arms through the lane and draw some more fouls á la Noah Clowney, use more deceleration driving to the rim, or get to two feet and create more kick-out opportunities.
Alas, Danny Wolf has to score to reach his high-end outcome. That’s his sell. Bully little guys and embarrass the oafs. The defensive flashes and occasional spot-up three (though he needs to improve his %s there) are cool, but let’s hope to see some more reliable finishing over this final third of the season.
Ben Saraf
Ben Saraf may be the true dud of the bunch, but it’s too early to be sure. He was picked #26 overall, and has struggled with both Long Island in the G League and with the Brooklyn Nets. However, he did just go for 18/6/8 in Long Island’s most recent game.
Saraf is shooting just 25% from deep with the big league club, and the stroke doesn’t look great either, though he’s in the mid-30s with Long Island. Either way, it’s an incredibly small sample that’s tough to draw conclusions from, but of all Brooklyn’s rookies, Saraf is the one who desperately needs to show some shooting improvement next season, if not right now.
He’s simply lacking confidence, especially when he’s up with Brooklyn. Perhaps this G League stint will do him well, as it did Traore before him, but right now, he’s not showcasing his strengths. Saraf’s drives are wayward; he was never the most explosive athlete, but he had more counters than this…
Where’s the behind-the-back, the spin, the jump-stop and pivot? Watch a couple highlights of Saraf as a prospect, and you’ll know it’s in there somewhere. He might not be an NBA-level scorer — Saraf is shooting just 38.7% from the floor in the G League, despite nailing some threes — but he’s gotta die trying.
Hey, eight assists per 100 possessions ain’t so bad.
Alright, maybe I’m not as high on this rookie class as I thought I was.
It’s still early, though. And Egor Dëmin has stones no spreadsheet can quantify; just look at the end of that Orlando Magic game. And Nolan Traore is improving, while Drake Powell just threw down a huge dunk…
Since I harped on his 2-point scoring here, Danny Wolf will probably just 10-of-10 next game out, same for Saraf.
The Flatbush Five are entering the home stretch of their rookie season. They may not save the Brooklyn Nets in one fell swoop, but such a drastic rebuild was never going to be easy. Plus, you can’t discount how they might improve playing next to the blue-chip talent the Nets hope to add in the 2026 NBA Draft…but it’s too early to talk about that.
For now, Egor Dëmin, Nolan Traore, Drake Powell, Ben Saraf, and Danny Wolf are all just trying to make it work. Their next opportunity to show out comes on Sunday afternoon as the Brooklyn Nets face the Atlanta Hawks with tip-off scheduled for 3:30 p.m.
JUPITER, FL - MARCH 14: JJ Wetherholt #7 of the St. Louis Cardinals is seen in the dugout during the game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Miami Marlins at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on Friday, March 14, 2025 in Jupiter, Florida. (Photo by Jared Blais/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Baseball is back! Spring training opening day has arrived for the Cardinals, which is the perfect time to suspend reality and indulge ourselves in some good old-fashioned optimism. Expectations for the team are at an all-time (or at least this century) low. It is easy for national media types and casual fans to look at the Brendan Donovan, Sonny Gray, and Willson Contreras trades and mentally bucket the Cardinals into a rebuilding tier with the Nationals and Angels, or even the White Sox and Rockies as teams that aren’t trying this year. The Cardinals do not belong in that group. This perception of the team has the Cardinals perfectly positioned to shock the baseball world with a few lucky breaks in 2026.
What would constitute shocking the baseball world? Let’s keep it simple and set our eyes on making the playoffs. For a refresher, here are the wins required to make the playoffs since the three-team wild card era began in 2022.
Every team to win 90+ games over the last four seasons has wound up playing October baseball. Arizona won 89 games in 2024 but lost the tiebreaker to the 89-win Braves and Mets. Cincinnati last year is the lone 83-win team to win a wild card spot since 2022. Ten of the 14 teams to win between 84 and 88 games have made the playoffs. Most projections have the Cardinals win total close to the mid-70s (PECOTA notwithstanding), so let’s keep it simple and say that overachieving by about 10 wins will put the Cardinals in a prime position to grab a spot in the postseason tournament.
What Does a Lucky Cardinals Team Look Like?
Before we get into the fantasy portion of today’s proceedings, I wanted to look at how much hope we should have just based on luck. As we are all acutely aware, random variance, unquantifiable dynamics, and supernatural intervention play a huge role every season. The best high-level statistic we have to understand team quality is Wins Above Replacement (WAR). WAR is set to 1,000 across baseball each year, so a .500 team would be expected to accrue 33.3 WAR. Conveniently enough, last season, the Cardinals team WAR was 30.4, three less than an average team, which tied out exactly to their 78-win total.
The table below outlines how often, since 2001, teams have over and underperformed their “deserved” win total based on team WAR.
*2020 excluded
68% of the time, a team’s win total has been within five wins in either direction of their expected win total based on WAR. The Cubs have had the single biggest underperforming season winning 67 games in 2002 with a roster led by Sammy Sosa, Matt Clement, and Kerry Wood that produced WAR to support an 82-win team. On the other end of the spectrum, the 2016 Rangers overperformed by 18 wins on the way to a 95-win season.
If the Cardinals are a true talent 75-win team, they should have around a 3% chance of winning 85+ games just based on normal baseball chaos. If you think they are closer to an 80-win team, the chances of random variance increase their odds of winning 85+ games to 16%. As a quick aside, here are the Cardinals over/underperformances over the last 25 years.
The Cardinals’ 50-win overperformance is second in baseball to the Angels at 71 over this timeframe. The Cubs are tied for last at 57 actual wins less than their deserved WAR wins.
What Does a Good Cardinals Team Look Like?
What do the Cardinals look like if they are a legitimately good team in 2026? Every player overperforming or improving by 15% would do the trick… So would Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman combining for 80 home runs and getting MVP votes. These scenarios are too boring and too unlikely, respectively, to spend too much time thinking about. What are some slightly more plausible scenarios that could lead to a summer of competitive baseball? The following aren’t predictions but my best guesses as to what the primary catalyst will be if we find the Cardinals competing for the postseason this September.
In each scenario, I am assuming the rest of the team plays generally as expected.
Scenario 1 – Starting Rotation has the Right Stuff+
Stuff+, a metric that measures a pitcher’s effectiveness based on velocity, movement, release point, etc., ranked the Cardinals starters second to last in baseball at 93 in 2025. Chaim Bloom’s general approach to the pitching staff seems to be geared specifically toward improving this metric. In 2026, Dustin May puts it all together and has a true breakout season. His career Stuff+ is 111, which would have ranked tied for fourth among qualified starters last season. Kyle Leahy continues his trend of improving every year and bursts onto the scene with above average stuff and command to take over as the undisputed number 2 starter behind May. Richard Fitts (103 Stuff+) and Hunter Dobbins (98) replace the abysmal Miles Mikolas (89) and Erick Fedde (91) innings with breakout seasons, combining for 5-6 WAR between them. Michael McGreevy and Matthew Liberatore build on solid 2025 seasons and complete one of the deepest rotations in baseball.
Scenario 2 – Mini MV3
Masyn Winn, JJ Wetherholt, and Ivan Herrera are the best projected players on the position player side of things with a combined 8.5 projected WAR (ZiPS). That is not going to cut it in this version of reality. Winn combines his 2025 defense with a mini offensive breakout to put up 5.5 WAR. Ivan Herrera sticks at catcher while getting plenty of DH at-bats and delivers a 5 WAR season. JJ Wetherholt hits his stride early and often, getting to 4.5 WAR en route to the NL Rookie of the Year award.
Scenario 3 – The Outfield is Really Good
Even the most optimistic current projection system sees the Cardinals as having a bottom 5-10 outfield in baseball. Lars Nootbaar comes back more quickly than expected with his fresh heels and makes his dwindling believers look smart with a 4.5 WAR season. Victor Scott II quietly makes incremental gains in every aspect of his game while getting 600 plate appearances and puts up 3.5 WAR in center field. In right field, Jordan Walker improves to closer to replacement level, but with the Cardinals off to an excellent start, he is replaced as the primary right fielder by Joshua Baez. Baez goes on to hit 26 home runs and challenges Wetherholt for the Rookie of the Year award.
Scenario 4 – Prospects Arrive Early and Often
Quinn Mathews and Joshua Baez make their big league debuts surprisingly early and help keep the Cardinals within shouting distance of the wild card through June. As the deadline approaches and the Cardinals are a few games under .500, Chaim Bloom stays true to his steely-eyed vision and trades Dustin May, Lars Nootbaar, and Jojo Romero. Tink Hence and Cooper Hjerpe are called up to fill innings and immediately supercharge the pitching staff with strikeouts. As September approaches and the Cardinals climb to ten games over .500, the gloves come off with a series of prospect promotions starting with Liam Doyle and finishing with Brandon Clarke and Jurrangelo Cijntje. This scenario sounds the craziest when you try to pick the actual names, but swap any of them out for Blaze Jordan, Chen-Wei Lin, Leonardo Bernal, Ixan Henderson, Luis Gastelum, or any of the deep list of prospects expected to start in Double-A or Triple-A.
Which of these scenarios, or combination of scenarios, do you think is most likely? Is there another you could see being the catalyst to a surprising season? Let’s play ball.
CLEVELAND, OH - OCTOBER 02: Logan Allen #26 of the Cleveland Guardians reacts to the camera prior to Game Three of the American League Wild Card Series between the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on Thursday, October 2, 2025 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Grace Hoppel/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
After roughly four months of no Guardians baseball, we will now gorge ourselves on two Cleveland spring training games today.
Logan Allen will pitch an inning or two against the Reds and Chase Burns at 3:05PM ET and Joey Cantillo will do the same against Garrett Stallings and the Brewers at 3:10PM ET in split-squad action. We will be doing Spring Training game threads this year so you can discuss both games together here starting at 3PM ET. You can listen to the Guardians-Reds game on Guardians’ radio.
Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Travis Bazzana joined Rosey on Guardians’ Weekly.
Angels’ owner Arte Moreno told the public that winning isn’t one of the top five things Angels fans care about, as fan surveys indicate. Reminds me of “Fan surveys indicate fans want GuardsFest every three years, not annually.” Just lies and gaslighting.
Feb 11, 2026; Clearwater, FL, USA;Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Cristopher Sanchez (61) runs a drill during spring training during spring training at BareCare Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images | Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images
Today is the day. There will be actual baseball on our TV screens (if you’re lucky enough) and we can commiserate together on what the team’s 47th ranked relief prospect looks like in the 8th inning of a spring training game.
Jon Rahm’s Ryder Cup future is in serious doubt after the Spaniard failed to join his teammate Tyrrell Hatton in settling a dispute over a seven-figure fine with the European Tour Group over participation in LIV Golf.
Hatton is one of eight golfers who have agreed to settle all outstanding fines due in Europe and withdraw any appeals in return for releases to play on LIV tournaments in 2026. Luke Donald, who is expected to remain in office for a third stint as Europe’s Ryder Cup captain, wanted the situation with Hatton and Rahm resolved. Donald has only partly got his wish, with Adare Manor in 2027 looming ever closer.
Nov 16, 2025; San Antonio, Texas, USA; Sacramento Kings guard DeMar DeRozan (10) dribbles against San Antonio Spurs forward Carter Bryant (11) in the first half at Frost Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images | Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images
The post-trade deadline time can be a strange one in the NBA. The teams that didn’t make many moves are trying to get ready for the playoffs, hoping to peak at the right time. The ones that shook things up are looking to rediscover an identity or form one for the first time. And then some franchises want the season to mercifully end, like the Kings.
Sacramento came into the season with play-in hopes, loaded up with veterans and a few young pieces. To say that they fell short of expectations would be an understatement. The Kings are last in the West, and unlike other bottom-dwellers, they find themselves there despite trying to win.
At least they were earlier in the season. After the deadline, they shut down Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine, and deadline acquisition De’Andre Hunter, as they all underwent season-ending surgeries. One of their feel-good stories of the season was the emergence of rookie Dylan Cardwell, but he will be out for a month. Russell Westbrook and DeMar DeRozan are still there, but those two couldn’t do much in Sacramento’s 37-point loss to the Magic on Thursday. They have some interesting young players that they need to develop the rest of the way, but no one who stands out as a cornerstone. The lottery can’t come soon enough for De’Aaron Fox’s previous team.
The Spurs are in a completely different situation. They have exceeded expectations and have the second-best record in the West, with a realistic chance to catch up to the injury-riddled Thunder. They did nothing at the deadline, so the chemistry they built remains intact, as shown in their convincing victory over the Suns after the All-Star break. All their rotation players are healthy and should be well-rested after not needing to be on the floor for heavy minutes to dispatch Phoenix in their first Austin game. And they looked locked in from the start and dominant the entire night, proving they are hungry as they prepare for the franchise’s return to the playoffs.
Late February and March basketball offers matchups between teams that have opposite goals and realities. The Spurs should prevail easily against a Kings team that wouldn’t mind another loss to keep the other tankers at bay. But there’s a reason they play the games, so San Antonio should come out focused and take care of business.
Spurs Injuries: Mason Plumlee – Out (Conditioning), Lindy Waters III – Questionable (Knee).
Kings Injuries: Domantas Sabonis – Out (Knee surgery), Zach LaVine – Out (Hand surgery), Dylan Cartwell – Out (Ankle), De’Andre Hunter – Out (Eye).
What to watch for:
The battle of the French centers. With Sabonis out, rookie Maxime Raynaud has been starting for the Kings and putting up some solid numbers. The big man has averaged 117 points and 8.4 boards when he’s been on the floor at tip-off, and in his last five games, he’s averaged 14.2 points and 9.8 boards. Wembanyama should dominate the matchup, but it should be fun to see him go against a talented 7’1 center who happens to be his friend.
The Spurs, finding their killer instinct. One of the few disappointing things about this iteration of the Silver and Black has been the team’s propensity to play down to its competition, resulting in too many close games. Against the Suns, that wasn’t an issue, as they started well and never relented on their way to an easy win. The same should happen against the lowly Kings, as the talent disparity is massive. Blowing out inferior or shorthanded teams not only allows for less wear-and-tear but is also typically a sign of a mature group. Let’s see if the young Spurs are making progress there.
Former Spurs vs. Former Kings. De’Aaron Fox and Harrison Barnes combined for 48 points in the first matchup with his former team this season. Fox also had 11 assists. DeMar DeRozan had 27 in just 15 shots in the losing effort, and Drew Eubanks played 11 minutes off the bench. The former Spurs and the former Kings could once again play a part in determining the winner. DeRozan would need to fuel the offense for Sacramento to have a chance, and Eubanks would need to provide solid minutes against Wembanyama. For San Antonio, Fox’s scoring and Barnes’ shooting are not as necessary, but always welcomed. And if things get out of hand, we might even get to see Doug McDermott in garbage time.
If you’d like to, you may follow along with the game on our Twitter profile (@poundingtherock) or visit our Game Thread!
FORT MYERS, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 29: Jordan Montgomery #47 of the New York Yankees delivers a pitch against the Boston Red Sox during a Grapefruit League spring training game at JetBlue Park at Fenway South on February 29, 2020 in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Spring games are underway, and the Yankees will take the field with the majority of their full squad for the first time this year. It won’t be for long, of course, but those first couple of innings broadcasting on YES are bound to bring some serotonin with them. With that comes the caveat that backups will take their place shortly thereafter, with sprinklings of prospects getting a look here and there. On the road it’ll be even more sparse to see the starters, as the season opener showcased, which begs the question: just how much of spring actually catches your attention?
For most, spring is a ball of excitement for a couple of days and then the monotony sets in and pleas are made to fast forward time just a little bit to get to games that matter. It’s hard to invest totally into exhibitions even for the most plugged-in and invested fans when the stats won’t matter, the results are skewed by varying talent levels on a given day’s roster, and most players are working more on timings and pitch adaptations than trying their hardest to win.
For some, this is part of the fun of it all — baseball is a marathon, not a sprint, and the contributions of guys slotted to start in Double-A at the start of the year can be surprisingly consequential depending on if things go really well for them or really, really bad for the big leaguers. Getting to see guys that won’t get the spotlight right away can be a breath of fresh air, and there’s always a name or two that catches people’s eyes with a highlight spring even though they’re nowhere near the majors yet. Building the hype early can lead to an enormous payoff in a year or two when the same kid comes back to camp ready to take on a role at the highest level.
There’s even a few who won’t care at all about spring — until the Yankees are playing in the Bronx, it just doesn’t matter to ‘em. What camp do you fall in, and what’s your reasoning for it? Personally, I’m always at least a little invested throughout spring, as it can lead to guys like Jordan Montgomery turning enough heads to take a rotation spot when they were far down on the depth chart to open camp. It’s harder to see splashes like that with a roster like this year’s team, but there’ll be a dark horse somewhere, I’m sure of it.
We’ve got just a couple of things to note before we get ready for the Yankees’ spring home opener. Nolan takes a look at Elmer Rodriguez’s promising start in the Grapefruit League season opener after the top pitching prospect tossed three scoreless innings, and then Nick wishes a happy birthday to a Yankee that came up for a brief stint with the 1990 Yankees and delivered a shot of adrenaline to a down-on-their luck team: Oscar Azócar.
The No. 3 Blue Devils (24-2) and No. 1 Wolverines (25-1) are set to play for the first time in 13 years when they take the court at 6:30 p.m. ET, not from Michigan's Crisler Center or Duke's Cameron Indoor Stadium, but from Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C., in The Duel in the District.
This will mark the 31st meeting between the programs and the seventh in a neutral site, which includes three meetings in the NCAA Tournament.
The last meeting between Duke and Michigan occurred in 2013 in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, when the Blue Devils took down the Wolverines 79-69 at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, North Carolina.
Here's what you need to know about the "Duel in the District" between Duke and Michigan on Saturday:
Why are Duke-Michigan playing nonconference game in February?
The "Duel in the District" game between Michigan and Duke was announced on June 24, 2025. Capital One Arena is the home of the NBA's Washington Wizards, the NHL's Washington Capitals and the Georgetown Hoyas men's basketball team.
The matchup is set to take place at the arena, which hosts several high-profile NCAA events in the coming years, including the 2026 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball East Regional, the 2027 Division I Men’s Ice Hockey Championship and the 2028 Division I Women’s Basketball Regional.
Michigan makes its way back to the nation's capital for the first time since participating in the Coaches vs. Racism matchup against Prairie View A&M on Nov. 13, 2021. The Wolverines play in Capital One Arena (then the Verizon Center) for the first time since winning the Big Ten Tournament there in 2017.
Duke played in the 2024 ACC Men’s Basketball Tournament at Capital One Arena, falling to eventual tournament winner North Carolina State in the quarterfinals.
Duke-Michigan basketball history
Series record: Duke leads 22-8
Duke and Michigan have faced off 30 times prior to Saturday's game. That includes three meetings in the NCAA Tournament (1992 national championship, 1964 Final Four and the 2011 second round) between the programs.
Here's a look at entire history between the programs:
Feb. 21, 2026 (Washington, D.C): No. 3 Duke vs. No. 1 Michigan
Dec. 3, 2013 (Durham, N.C): Duke 79, Michigan 69
Nov. 22, 2011 (Lahaina, Hawaii): Duke 82, Michigan 75
March 20, 2011 (Charlotte): Duke 73, Michigan 71 (Round of 32)
Dec. 6, 2008 (Ann Arbor, Michigan): Michigan 81, Duke 73
Nov. 21, 2008 (New York): Duke 71, Michigan 56
Dec. 8, 2007 (Durham, N.C.): Duke 95, Michigan 67
Dec. 7, 2002 (Durham, N.C.): Duke 81, Michigan 59
Dec. 8, 2001 (Ann Arbor, Michigan): Duke 104, Michigan 83
Dec. 9, 2000 (Durham, N.C.): Duke 104, Michigan 61
Dec. 11, 1999 (Ann Arbor, Michigan): Duke 104, Michigan 97
Dec. 12, 1998 (Durham, N.C.): Duke 108, Michigan 64
Dec. 13, 1997 (Ann Arbor, Michigan): Michigan 81, Duke 73
Dec. 8, 1996 (Durham, N.C.): Michigan 62, Duke 61
Dec. 9, 1965 (Ann Arbor, Michigan): Michigan 88, Duke 84
Dec. 10, 1994 (Durham, N.C): Duke 69, Michigan 59
Dec. 11, 1993 (Ann Arbor, Michigan): Duke 73, Michigan 63
Dec. 5, 1992 (Durham, N.C.): Duke 79, Michigan 68
April 6, 1992 (Minneapolis): Duke 71, Michigan 51 (national championship)
Dec. 14, 1991 (Ann Arbor, Michigan): Duke 88, Michigan 85
Dec. 8, 1990 (Durham, N.C.): Duke 75, Michigan 68
Dec. 9, 1989 (Ann Arbor, Michigan): Michigan 113, Duke 108
Dec. 7, 1970 (Durham, N.C.): Duke 95, Michigan 74
Dec. 10, 1969 (Ann Arbor, Michigan): Duke 73, Michigan 68
Dec. 9, 1968 (Durham, N.C.): Michigan 90, Duke 80
Dec. 6, 1967 (Ann Arbor, Michigan): Duke 93, Michigan 90
Dec. 3, 1966 (Durham, N.C.): Duke 96, Michigan 75
Dec. 21, 1965 (Detroit): Duke 100, Michigan 93
Dec. 5, 1964 (Durham, N.C.): Michigan 86, Duke 79
March 20, 1964 (Kansas City): Duke 91, Michigan 80 (Final Four)
Dec. 21, 1963 (Ann Arbor, Michigan): Michigan 83, Duke 67
The Pittsburgh Penguins should be looking to improve their defensive depth ahead of the 2026 NHL trade deadline. It is clear that they could use at least one more bottom-pairing defenseman, and the Toronto Maple Leafs have a potential option for them to consider in blueliner Simon Benoit.
With the Maple Leafs having a down year and several NHL-caliber defensemen, Benoit has been the subject of trade rumors this season. If the Maple Leafs officially listen to offers for him, the Penguins should consider making a push for him.
If the Penguins acquired Benoit, they would be bringing in a gritty stay-at-home defenseman who can play both sides. With this, the 27-year-old defenseman could be a nice fit on the Penguins' bottom pairing. However, even if he served as their seventh defenseman, his versatility would undoubtedly make him a useful player for Pittsburgh to have around. This is especially so for when injuries arise.
Benoit would also be more than a rental for the Penguins if acquired, as he has a $1.35 million cap hit until the end of next season. With the Penguins focused on both the present and the future, Benoit having term on his deal could add to his appeal.
Nevertheless, with the Penguins in need of another solid defensive defenseman, Benoit would make a lot of sense for them to target. It will be interesting to see if the Penguins pursue the 6-foot-4 defenseman from here.
SACRAMENTO, CA - FEBRUARY 7: A close up shot of the hair belonging to Jarrett Allen #31 of the Cleveland Cavaliers prior to the game against the Sacramento Kings on February 7, 2026 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
The Cavs need Jarrett Allen to play at this level. He’s shown these past few weeks that this team is at its very best when he’s actively involved in the offense. That came through once again as he put up 26 points on 11-15 shooting to go along with 14 big rebounds.
Additionally, it’s common for stats like this to be misleading. For example, football teams typically have a worse record when they attempt more than a certain number of passes. This isn’t because passing is ineffective or bad. It’s just that teams that are behind in a game have to pass more often than those that are winning. This leads to stats like this being skewed.
That’s how I’ve typically viewed Allen’s production numbers. And I was wrong for doing so.
Allen’s rim pressure just opens up the offense for everyone. This was clear in the string of games before they got James Harden. Now, it’s even harder to ignore after they traded for one of the best pick-and-roll distributors of all-time.
The Cavs’ biggest problem was not getting Allen involved enough. That hasn’t been an issue with Harden. Passes like this force Allen to be aggressive. He simply has no other choice.
When Allen is beating you like this, defenses can’t send two to the screen and hope the rotation stops the roller. However, not doing so opens up looks for the ball handler, like this clean pull-up three for Harden.
Allen is the big the offense should prioritize first.
Evan Mobley being in the lineup has the potential to make things more difficult, even though that didn’t happen on Thursday against a bad Brooklyn Nets team. He’s another center who needs to be fed in a similar way to be effective offensively.
That said, Allen should be the main target over Mobley. His screening and the rim pressure he provides — as we’ve seen these past several weeks — are much more valuable offensively. There’s simply no excuse for ignoring Allen after this many strong showings.
Outside shooting teams like the Hornets can give the Cavs problems defensively. Charlotte head coach Charles Lee came from the Boston Celtics, and a lot of his team’s offensive philosophies trace back to his time in Boston. How Charlotte and Boston generate threes is different, but the amount they take and how they do a good job of rebounding misses is similar.
The Cavs didn’t do a great job of defending the three-point line. The Hornets got back into this game by going 8-15 from distance in the third quarter. They were able to generate open outside shots with simple guard screening actions or by forcing the defense to collapse and then found the open shooter as a result.
Cleveland’s defensive philosophy is predicated on defending the basket. This is a sound strategy and ultimately the right one. Scoring in the restricted area is still the most effective way of doing so. And in this game, the Cavs did a great job of keeping the Hornets from getting there as Charlotte converted just 43.5% of their shots at the rim (1st percentile).
That said, teams like Charlotte and Boston don’t necessarily attack the basket because they want to score. They do so because they want to create in rhythm threes.
This is an area where the starting backcourt of Donovan Mitchell and Harden are suseptable. Neither is good at keeping their defensive assignment in front of them. Their teammates know this and are ready and prepared to rotate over to help, which can lead to open shooters on the perimeter.
Charlotte lost this game because they went cold in the fourth quarter and ended up converting just 35.7% of their 56 three-point shots. However, many of those misses were more due to shot variance than anything the Cavs were doing defensively.
The Cavs have struggled on the glass against teams that know how to rebound their missed threes.
Charlotte racked up 23 offensive boards. Nine of those were due to Ryan Kalkbrenner being an immovable object inside. There’s not much you can do about someone that big. However, they also retrieved a fair amount of their missed threes that didn’t have as much to do with him. That’s more of a concern.
Missed threes can bounce further off the rim. If you want to grab those, a good place to run is to the free-throw line. Kenny Atkinson, when he has been asked about this in the past, has said that you need good rebound spacing against teams that shoot this many threes. The Cavs didn’t have that.
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The Hornets were rewarded for their efforts on the glass with 37-second chance points.
These two concerns are why the Celtics are the worst playoff matchup for the Cavs. Boston also hunts threes and prioritizes offensive rebounding, but they’re overall more talented on both sides of the ball. On top of that, they have one of the best coaches in the league. I don’t want to get too derailed by this tangent, but it’s worth pointing out after a game like this.
Harden and Sam Merrill have developed great chemistry. Merrill hit four shots against Charlotte, and three of them were assisted by Harden.
Like Allen, Merrill was seemingly created in a lab to play with Harden. He’s a smart off-ball mover who knows where to be to create the best angle for a pass. He’s also great at attacking off screens. Throw in Harden’s ability to make every pass and process the game at a high level, and you have a formidable duo.
The Hornets tried to force the ball out of Harden’s hands late. He accepted the double, found the outlet in Mitchell, and then this led to an open three for Dean Wade. This was a great and well-executed sequence from Cleveland’s perspective.
The Cavs have consistently handled Harden being trapped well. They’ve properly spaced the floor, and Harden has made the right play seemingly every time.
Keon Ellis is incredibly entertaining to watch defensively. Few players have his energy, lateral quickness, and nose for the ball. This combination creates someone who’s both a sound man defender and is also a chaos agent who can seemingly come out of nowhere to completely blow up a play.
So far, Ellis has registered at least two stocks (blocks and steals) in the six games he’s played with the Cavs. On Friday, he collected two steals by baiting his opponent into a pass that he knew he could take away.
Players who gamble for steals and blocks like this don’t always lead to their team playing better defense. Typically, you need to gamble too much to do so. But it isn’t a gamble for someone who has Ellis’s length and quickness.
Not counting Friday’s game, Cleveland has registered an impressive 108.9 defensive rating with Ellis on the floor, which is only going to get better after the Cavs had an 87.5 defensive rating in the 24 minutes Ellis played in Charlotte.
“He’s maybe the most unique player,” Atkinson said after the game. “[He’s] totally not what I thought. [He’s a] unique, unique player. Sometimes he gets a deflection, and you don’t even see how it happens. His hands are so fast. … He’s a quick jumper off the floor to get contests. … Man, what a unique player. Really a game changer.”
WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 20: Alondes Williams #31 of the Washington Wizards dunks the ball during the game against the Indiana Pacers on February 20, 2026 at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
The Wizards returned from the All-Star break with disastrous back-to-back wins in a tête-à-tête against the Indiana Pacers. In the one last night, the Wizards rallied from a 15-point second quarter deficit to win by 13.
In the NBA’s 2026 race for the bottom, Washington has fallen to fifth behind the Sacramento Kings, New Orleans Pelicans, Indiana, and the Brooklyn Nets. The Utah Jazz — an annual leader in tanking shenanigans — is lurking.
Alondes Williams poured in points during the team’s win over the Indiana Pacers. | NBAE via Getty Images
I sympathize with Wizards head coach Brian Keefe and general manager Will Dawkins. Alex Sarr and Kyshawn George sat. They traded away productive to semi-productive veterans for Anthony Davis and Trae Young — neither of whom has played even a second for the Wizards.
Justin Champagnie, who produces when he plays, departed last night’s game after just 11 minutes with a sore knee.
Keefe is left with no choice but to play kids, and what’s making The Tank a bit of a challenge is that some of those kids are playing pretty well — at least when going up against a Pacers team missing virtually every useful NBA player in the organization.
Kids playing pretty well, even against what amounts to a G League squad, isn’t bad. The Wizards need to lose enough to keep that first round pick, so things could get downright debaculous in the near future. Just to be clear, I want Dawkins to know that I can help. I have enough vacation time to become the NBA’s oldest ever rookie on a 10-day contract. Maybe two.
I mean, yeah my body might not hold up for more than a game or two (if that), but I will brick lots of threes, be easy pickings on defense, and consistently fail to get back on defense.
Also, if Anthony Gill serves as the team dad, I can (briefly) be the team’s granddad.
Thoughts & Observations
Full disclosure: I was on work travel and did not watch either of these games, so these observations are strictly from the numbers.
Amazing to think that the Wizards had a 61.1% effective field goal percentage, and the Pacers clocked in at 57.8% and the teams combined for a slightly subpar offensive night. Both teams committed loads of turnovers. Neither got to the free throw line or gathered offensive rebounds.
If the teams had combined for an average night offensively, they would have totaled 252 points. They tallied 249. Not a huge difference, but again — amazing considering the high shooting percentages from the floor.
Even more amazing: the Wizards shot 61.1% from the floor (eFG%) while also hitting just 6-29 — 20.7% — from three-point range. That’s because they hit 74.2% on twos. Yowza.
Washington’s ability to get inside was determinant — they outscored the Pacers 78-46 in the paint.
Kudos to Alondes Williams for having a great game halfway through a 10-day contract — 25 points, 10 rebounds, 4 assists in 30 minutes.
More kudos to Kadary Richmond, also on a 10-day contract, for producing 6 steals in 31 minutes.
Even more kudos to Sharife Cooper — on a two-way contract — for notching 18 points and 5 assists in 27 minutes.
Yet more kudos to Keefe for giving 55% of the game’s minutes to guys on two-way contracts and 10-day contracts.
Four Factors
Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).
The four factors are measured by:
eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)
FOUR FACTORS
PACERS
WIZARDS
LGAVG
eFG%
57.8%
61.1%
54.3%
OREB%
19.1%
24.4%
26.1%
TOV%
19.3%
15.6%
12.8%
FTM/FGA
0.156
0.158
0.208
PACE
109
99.4
ORTG
108
120
115.4
Stats & Metrics
PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).
PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.
POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.
ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average so far this season is listed in the Four Factors table above. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.
USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.
ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.
+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 115, the league — on average — would produced 23.0 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -3.0.
Players are sorted by total production in the game.
