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Another week of series comes to a close on the farm for the Phillies. Here’s a look at yesterday’s action.

Lehigh Valley 5, Rochester 3

Where it pertains to the Phillies, Brad Keller had another appearance with the IronPigs, throwing a scoreless innings, striking out one. The stuff looked better, which may mean he’s close to returning. With the kids, Robert Moore had two RBI to lead the offense, Payton Henry had two hits, all of which was backed up with a solid start from Drake Fellows (5 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 K) and good bullpen work.

New Hampshire 5, Reading 3

Raylin Heredia, have a day. The young outfielder went four for four with a walk and a run scored to lead an offense that couldn’t do much more. Heredia interests me since he seems to be putting up numbers each time we write these up and indeed, he has an .840 OPS with 16 home runs on the year. Alas, he also swings at virtually everything, evidenced by a walk rate that falls below 5%. In his latest prospect rankings, Matt Winkelman did not list him among his top thirty Phillies prospects. Hey, you never know, maybe he’ll discover some plate discipline and turn himself into something useful.

Rome 2, Jersey Shore 0

It’s a little concerning that the BlueClaws team is basically the desert of the Phillies’ farm system. There is barely a top prospect there and they are performing as such, Sunday’s game a microcosm. There was a decent start from Tanner Gresham (5 IP, 4 H, 2 R) that was wasted by nothing coming from the offense. I read an article this weekend about the owners’ proposal to continue outsourcing minor league development somewhere else and how it’s being felt on rosters around the minor leagues. Maybe this is the example in the Phillies’ own system, where Jersey Shore struggles to field decent rosters. At least they have Ramon Marquez (and Cody Bowker, to a smaller extent).

Clearwater 6, Ft. Myers 2

I think we need to start paying more attention to Juan Villavicencio. Having another good day where he’s 2 for 4 with an RBI double continues to raise his profile. Matthew Ferrera had a double and three RBI, Will Vierling had a two-run home run and the offense showed a pulse. There seems to be something bubbling down in Clearwater.

The Yankees have done an excellent job of sucking all the fun from baseball the past two weeks. It feels like an entire June Swoon’s worth of misery has been stuffed into the past 10 days. Unfortunately, I am extremely skeptical we are out of the woods.

The situation could be more dire, however. Thankfully, the Astros made themselves useful this weekend. A day after Yordan Alvarez burnished his MVP candidacy at the dish, outstanding pitching led Houston to another win, thereby handing the Rays a series loss and preventing Tampa from building a daunting AL East lead as the Yankees fester in their own bumbling ineptitude.

Tampa Bay Rays (52-35) 0, Houston Astros (45-47) 2

Today was far from an offensive outburst for either club. But Houston had just enough juice in their bats to eke out the win. First, Christian Walker launched a solo home run in the fourth, his 20th dinger of the season. What a difference a year makes: On this day in 2025, Walker’s season-long slump had him with a .673 OPS and a sub-.400 SLG while today, those numbers are .781 and .470, respectively.

Isaac Paredes followed with a solo shot of his own in the sixth, his 12th. That was enough offense, as the ‘Stros completely shut down Tampa. Peter Lambert continued his strong first half now that he has escaped Coors Field tossing 5.2 shutout innings before handing it over to the ‘pen. A pair of relievers got the game to the ninth, where Josh Hader loomed. Hader walked Junior Caminero (probably smart) to start the frame prior to retiring the next three Rays he saw to seal the game and series.

Other Games

Toronto Blue Jays (42-48) 0, Seattle Mariners (47-44) 4: At least the Yankees scored a run Sunday. That’s more than Tampa and Toronto can claim. Emerson Hancock took the ball and completely stifled the Jays offense. Hancock tossed seven shutout before the M’s ‘pen took over and notched the final six outs. At the plate, a Seattle backstop hitting south of the Mendoza Line was the hero. No. Not “The Big Dumper.” Mitch Garver clubbed a two-run home run, though Cal Raleigh did manage an RBI on a sac fly. Man. Has anyone had a worse follow-up season after an historically good one?

Cleveland Guardians (47-44) 6, Chicago White Sox (47-42) 7: Early, this one looked like it might be a barn burner. Five combined runs in the first. Chicago scored in each of the opening innings. First team to 10 wins? After Cleveland tied it at six in the home fifth on a Gabriel Arias three-run bomb, that looked possible. But you can’t predict baseball. The White Sox reclaimed their lead in the sixth then both clubs’ bats went silent. The ChiSox bullpen got the final nine outs, allowing only two baserunners. This is a genuinely fun turnaround for a team that was historically awful in 2024. Hopefully they can keep it up.

Daily perspective: Four teams with more wins than the Cubs. The Cubs are on a perfect 90-win pace. 72 games remaining. The Cubs managed one win from the Cardinals. A disappointing weekend, but a good homestand winning four of six. Fangraphs has the Cubs at 71 percent for a postseason spot. The Cubs have an off day Monday before a six-game road trip to Baltimore and Cincinnati. The early Fangraphs projection of those matchups has the Cubs somewhere between a small and medium favorite for the first five of those six games and an underdog in the sixth. An off day, then six road games, then the All-Star break provides a somewhat unusual opportunity to be a little more aggressive with bullpen usage. Matthew Boyd is in line for the two start week. I’m not sure there is per se a better option right now. I haven’t followed injury notes, but Fangraphs thinks Jameson Taillon takes the Saturday start (and no starts for Javier Assad). Taillon threw 3.1 innings in a rehab start for South Bend Sunday, allowed one run, struck out two and threw 45 pitches. So he and Assad could possibly piggyback on Saturday.

Enough perspective for one day. That feels like it at least could be a decent trip. So it’s a good thing the Cubs didn’t spoil the homestand by getting swept. Four of six feels pretty good against two teams that Fangraphs thinks have 41.5 percent and 12.5 percent likelihood of being in the playoffs. Putting a nail in a in no way sealed coffin for the Padres was terrific. That team might be in some amount of disarray right now, but with their bullpen and some of the bats they have there, that’s a team that has a puncher’s chance in a series.

The Cardinals have a tough road ahead and appear to be the third (or fourth) best team in their own division. That’s a tough, though clearly not impossible, road to the playoffs. I think if I could flat out pick where the wins fell, I’d have chosen two in each series, but I really don’t mind the 3/1 split. This is not a year where I feel it totally needed to be 3/1 with the Cardinals being the three.

What went right on Sunday? Javier Assad had a decent start, though he didn’t finish five, using 80 pitches to get two outs into the fifth. He allowed two hits and two walks. The Cubs rode two Cardinals errors in the decisive sixth inning to put together a four run inning. A walk and two hit by pitches in the first inning by Cardinal pitchers also helped the Cub offense.

Long story short, the Cubs were better on Sunday, but they really won this one because the Cardinals were pretty sloppier. Drew Pomeranz returned to the team and appears to be a potential contributor. We’ll see how spotty that will be. But obviously this team had a lot of familiarity with him and a ton of need. The team continues to keep their eyes open. There are a couple of more veteran relievers throwing innings in Iowa for the organization, as the team looks to try to float their injuries until some of the plethora of injured Cub pitchers start working their way back.

I will hat tip that the Cubs led 6-3 after six and ultimately won a game. I’ve belabored a lot that the Cubs really haven’t been involved in games like this, games where the team leads after six and turns it over to the pen to nail it down. I’m not sure how often they can throw Jacob Webb for two innings to nail down a save like this, but he hadn’t thrown all weekend and won’t be needed Monday, so it was a spot where this was an option. Webb has looked better, but knowing they wanted him to get six outs while also knowing he had a three-run lead to work with, this was a fine performance.

Webb now has three saves, matching Daniel Palencia for the team lead. It was a rare three-save week for the Cubs. And true to form for this team, the saves were recorded by three different pitchers. An interesting question is what will the Cubs end up with more of: Different pitchers with saves or walk-off wins? With 10 different players already having saves, you’d knee jerk that it’s going to be hard to find too many other guys to get saves. Pomeranz comes to mind right away. Phil Maton is the only other semi-obvious candidate. But I’ll eat my hat if the Cubs don’t trade for at least one reliever later this month. Then there are also those two veteran arms working at Iowa. Walk-offs are not a thing that are guaranteed to happen. I would probably say walk-offs are at least a 60-40 favorite.

Three Positives:

• Nico Hoerner had two plate appearances in scoring opportunities and had a sacrifice fly and an RBI-single, scoring two of six runners he batted with on base on the day.
• He had all of those opportunities because Michael Busch (single, two hit by pitch) and Carson Kelly (single, two walks) kept getting on base. Each scored a run.
• A hat tip to Jacob Webb for six outs even though he allowed a hit and a walk and an inherited run.
• Obligatory PCA update: two singles, hit by pitch, two stolen bases and a run scored. Pete is now on pace for a 30/40 season with 74 walks, 88 RBI and 101 runs. His ascendency to Superstar has been so much fun to watch.

Game 90, July 5: Cubs 6, Cardinals 4 (50-40)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Javier Assad (.252). 4.2 IP, 17 BF, 2 H, 2 BB, 0 R, 2 K
• Hero: Michael Busch (.204). 1-2, 2 HBP, R
• Sidekick: Dansby Swanson (.158). 1-4, R

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Tyler Ferguson (-.336). 0.2 IP, 3 BF, H, ER
• Goat: Ian Happ (-.089). 0-3, HBP (Cards hit four Cubs).
• Kid: Seiya Suzuki (-.072). 0-4

WPA Notes: Despite Ryan Rolison starting the sixth inning meltdown for the Cub pen, most of the WPA falls on Ferguson because they scored while he was pitching. Webb gets knocked for allowing the inherited runner to score. Absent that run, he slips past Dansby for third. Nico’s day doesn’t land higher because his RBI-single didn’t really massive move the needle on expected scoring. Run expectancy thought the Cubs would score 1.83 more runs in the inning before Hoerner’s single and after his RBI-single, total run expectancy for the inning was 2.48.

WPA Play of the Game: Jordan Walker’s three-run homer off of Tyler Ferguson with one out in the sixth turned a two run deficit into a one run lead. (.370)

Cubs Play of the Game: Dansby Swanson batted with runners on first and second with one out, scored tied in the sixth. He grounded to third, but Jose Fermin’s error led to a run and runners on second and third. (.198)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 89 Winner: Pete Crow-Armstrong received 83% of 36 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong +21
• Carson Kelly +14.5
• Michael Busch +14
• Ben Brown +13.5
• Trent Thornton +12.5
• Dansby Swanson -9
• Edward Cabrera -9.5
• Phil Maton -10
• Caleb Thielbar -13
• Seiya Suzuki -13.5

Up Next: That off day Monday. Matthew Boyd (3-1, 5.08) is scheduled for the first game of the trip. He’s 1-0 with three runs allowed in 9.2 innings since coming off of the IL. He threw 76 pitches in each of the two starts. I’d imagine at this point situation would dictate possibly going a little farther than that going forward.

The 42-49 Orioles have lost six of 10 and have a -28 run differential. They feel like the fifth best team in a division with two titans in it (though the Yankees are free falling right now). 27-year-old right Shane Baz (4-8, 4.19) will get the start. I know him best for his four years here in Tampa with the Rays, though he was the 12th overall pick of the Pirates back in 2017. He had a good start last time against the White Sox in Baltimore, allowing two runs over seven innings. He’s got a 3.30 ERA over his last seven starts (43.2 IP), so this is definitely no gimme.

The Orioles are 12th in runs scored in MLB. Their issue is the eighth most runs allowed. They are 13th in runs allowed by relievers, so the starters have been the problem. If you follow that set of stats around the circle, this is a decent chance for the Orioles to win a game.

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The Tampa Bay Rays are short home favorites against the New York Yankees, but I’m taking the near-pick’em road side.

Griffin Jax’s contact profile gives New York a buy-low power matchup, while Cam Schlittler gives the Yankees an edge.

Here are my Yankees vs Rays predictions and MLB picks for July 6.

Who will win Yankees vs Rays today: Yankees Moneyline (-101)

I’m betting the New York Yankees for 2 units and would play them down to -135.

Cam Schlittler is coming off a rough start against the Detroit Tigers, and New York is in its worst stretch of the season, but this price has overcorrected.

My projection is well off the market (around -150), and Tampa Bay Rays starter Griffin Jax gives the Yankees the right rebound matchup. Jax has allowed a 10.7% barrel rate and .483 xSLG, while New York still owns a 9.9% team barrel rate.

With Schlittler’s starter edge, I’m buying the dip. 

COVERS INTEL:Jax’s 5.37 expected ERA is the hidden concern. His 3.45 ERA looks playable, but it's a screaming signal for overdue regression.

Yankees vs Rays Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (+105)

I’m playing the Over because this number is low enough to buy a Yankees offensive rebound against the right starter. Jax's barrel rate is a problem against an offense that still ranks in the top three of the sport in barrel rate and hard-hit rate. 

This enables at least one crooked number inning, and that may be all you need.

Schlittler is the better arm, but asking the Rays to score around 3 runs isn't out of reach. I'd play this down to -130, with an 8.2-run projection.

Yankees vs Rays weather

Excessive heat with a chance of showers is expected in the Tampa Bay area tonight. 

Yankees vs Rays odds

• Moneyline: Yankees +100 | Rays -120
• Run line: Yankees +1.5 | Rays -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Yankees vs Rays trend

The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 away games (+3.70 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rays.

How to watch Yankees vs Rays and game info

Yankees vs Rays latest injuries

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The Philadelphia Phillies and Kansas City Royals wrap up a three-game set this afternoon, with Cristopher Sanchez taking the mound for the visitors.

My Phillies vs. Royals predictions and MLB picks lean toward Philly taking the finale, given their ace's recent dominance. 

Who will win Phillies vs Royals today: Phillies -1.5 (-126)

Philadelphia Phillies lefty Cristopher Sanchez has been brilliant this season, compiling a 2.00 ERA overall. That success hasn't stopped lately, either. Sanchez sports a 2.69 FIP across his last two outings, allowing just 0.75 HR/9. 

On the other side, the Kansas City Royals send Noah Cameron to the hill. He owns an alarming 9.38 xERA over the last two weeks. He's allowed 11 earned runs across his previous two outings. 

Cameron's recent struggles are a recipe for disaster against a hot Phillies offense. They own a .211 ISO over the last six contests and a 44% hard-hit rate as a lineup during that span. 

Sanchez deals, and the Phillies jump on Cameron. 

I'll play this pick up to -140. 

COVERS INTEL: Cameron has surrendered 2.08 HR/9 and walked 6.23 hitters per nine over his last two outings, compared to 1.08 HR/9 and 2.68 BB/9 overall this season.  

Phillies vs Royals Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+101)

I expect the Phillies to do the majority of the scoring off Cameron, but Sanchez doesn't need to have a poor outing for this game to reach the Over. Even a couple of runs from Kansas City before the bullpens take over would put this total in a favorable position

When it comes to the bullpens, Kansas City's relievers have posted a 4.50 FIP over the last week, allowing a 42.6% hard-hit rate. They've held their own, but the bullpen hasn't been unstoppable, either. As for the Phillies pen, they've compiled a 3.86 FIP over that same span, walking 4.85 hitters per nine. 

With a relatively low total and the Phillies offense capable of putting up five or six runs of their own, a 7-2, 8-3 scoreline seems realistic here. 

I'll play this pick up to -110. 

Phillies vs Royals weather

Conditions should be favorable for offense this afternoon, with temperatures climbing into the mid-80s under mostly clear skies. Winds are expected to remain light at around 5–6 mph. The warm weather could help well-hit balls carry a bit farther, giving hitters a slight boost, though the starting pitching matchup will likely remain the biggest factor in determining the outcome.

Phillies vs Royals odds

• Moneyline: Phillies -194 | Royals +186
• Run line: Phillies -1.5 (-122) | Royals +1.5 (+117)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+108) | Under 8.5 (-113)

Phillies vs Royals trend

The Phillies have cashed the team total Over in 10 of their last 14 games for +5.85 units and a 36% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Royals.

How to watch Phillies vs Royals and game info

Phillies vs Royals latest injuries

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After eight grueling games the San Diego Padres have ended their losing streak with a 5-2 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the final game of their four-game series at Dodger Stadium. Not only was it the end of the losing streak, but it was also the end of the San Diego road trip that saw them get swept by the Chicago Cubs in three games and drop the first three games to Los Angeles.

JP Sears was the unlikeliest of heroes for the Padres, making his third start since being called up from Triple-A El Paso. The left-hander completed five scoreless innings and allowed just one hit with two walks and five strikeouts. Sears actually had a no-hitter into the fifth inning but allowed a two-out single to Miguel Rojas before finishing the inning with a strikeout of Alex Freeland. Sears recorded three of his five strikeouts in his final inning of work.

San Diego gave Sears a 1-0 lead in the top of the fourth inning after a Manny Machado walk and a Gavin Sheets single. Jackson Marrill came to the plate with runners at first and second and two outs in the inning. He then hit a sharp ground ball through the right side of the infield which allowed Machado to score from second base to give the Padres the lead. San Diego added to its total in the seventh when Sung-Mun Song walked and stole second before Luis Campusano singled to open the inning. Fernando Tatis Jr. beat out an infield single and Song came into score to give the Padres a 2-0 lead. Miguel Andjuar followed Tatis with a flyball out, which brought Machado to the plate with two on and one out. The third baseman connected on a ball that went out over the center field wall to push the San Diego lead to 5-0.

Los Angeles responded in the bottom of the seventh inning after a leadoff walk to Teoscar Hernandez. Alex Call struck out for the first out of the inning and Kyle Tucker singled to right field off new reliever Adrian Morejon. Freeland followed with a single that allowed Hernandez to score to get the Dodgers on the board, 5-1. After a strikeout of Tommy Edman, Morejon allowed a single to Shohei Ohtani, and the Padres lead was cut to 5-2. Morejon ended the threat and the inning with a three-pitch strikeout of Andy Pages.

San Diego mounted another scoring threat in the top of the ninth with two on and one out but a groundout from Sheets and a flyout from Ty France left the runners at second and third and gave Mason Miller an opportunity to come in for the save in the bottom of the ninth. The right-hander made quick work of his inning and struck out Tucker before getting Freeland and Dalton Rushing to flyout.

Jake Peavy said it best on the NBC broadcast, for the Padres to get back into the playoff picture their stars have to star and that is what Tatis and Machado did in the final game against the Dodgers. Tatis finished 3-for-5 with an RBI and a run scored, while Machado finished 1-for-2 with three walks, three RBI and two runs scored. Of course, the biggest contribution was the three-run home run from Machado in the seventh which proved to be a game winning home run.

San Diego returns to Petco Park to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks today at 6:40 p.m.

Padres News:

• Two members of the San Diego coaching staff, including manager Craig Stammen, were ejected just three pitches into the game against Los Angeles on Sunday.

• The Padres damaged their playoff chances with their long losing streak, which means they now have to play catchup according to Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

• El Paso got an 11-2 win thanks to home runs from Marcos Castanon and Nick Schnell.

Baseball News:

• Eury Perez pitched seven perfect innings for the Miami Marlins before he was taken out of the game in their 9-8 win over the Athletics.

• Joe Ryan dominated the New York Yankees and the Minnesota Twins got a series win.

• The Chicago Cubs solved the St. Louis Cardinals and earned a 6-4 win over their rival on Sunday.

• The Milwaukee Brewers edged the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 3-2 win.

• Pittsburgh Pirates rookie Konnor Griffin showed why he was the MLB’s top prospect with two stellar defensive plays against the Washington Nationals in Pittsburgh’s 11-5 win.

• The New York Mets almost squandered a seven-run ninth inning lead, but held on for a one-run win over the Atlanta Braves.

• Kyle Karros hit an eighth inning home run to lead the Colorado Rockies past the San Francisco Giants.

I might be one of the few writers here that has no experience in radio, but I remember my old journalism classes and one of the things they taught us is that the average audience turns over every 15 to 20 minutes. That was literally in the last century and I’m sure that ballpark has changed some, but the concept is still very much the same. I try to take the same concept to the writing game. There will be new readers all the time, so it pays off to revisit concepts every now and then.

Offensive efficiency is a very simple stat. You simply take the total percentage of base runners that have crossed home plate. Obviously, it’s not absolutely perfect. You get hitters that reach on an error and baseball-reference.com doesn’t keep track of those. It is what we in the stats world would call noise where we assume it is fairly constant throughout the 30 teams and simply move on. So, you add up hits, walks, and hit by pitches and then divide runs into that.

The results are important, but the why is probably more important. The main reason we do it is to guard against what we might call regional bias. In other words, we watch the Astros and mainly the Astros. So, it often seems they are bad at leaving runners on base and on third with less than two outs in particular. Are they really bad in comparison with the rest of the league? That’s where offensive efficiency comes in.

Of course, tracking this data tells us many other things. Where do the Astros rank in total base runners? Where do they rank in walks? Is this a good offense overall? They were one of the worst offenses in the AL last season and that was particularly true in terms of offensive efficiency. They ranked 13th out of 15 AL teams in that department and it got both hitting coaches fired. So, are the new hitting coaches doing any better? The stats below are the team stats coming into the fourth of July.

The average is pretty telling here and we can break this down with all kinds of regression analysis, but we should probably pair this down and keep it simple. The Astros have an above average offense in the American League. They are above average in runs scored, hits, total base runners, and offensive efficiency. They only really lag in one major category and that is walks. Of course, lagging needs to be put in air quotes. They are more or less league average in that category.

Numbers are always the easiest part of statistical analysis. The whys and what fors are the hardest. Are the gains primarily because of the hitting coaches or are they because Yordan Alvarez is healthy and playing the best baseball of his career? Most would probably point towards the latter. In fact, if you do nothing but look at Alvarez and Christian Walker then you probably have seen all of the gains the Astros have made between 2025 and 2026.

Do the hitting coaches deserve credit for that? That’s a harder question. Is Walker’s resurgence due to adjustments he has made or simple regression to the mean? It’s always some of both in these instances. In other words, Walker was probably not going to be as bad regardless of who the hitting coach was. Suffice it to say, this is the Walker the Astros thought they were signing. When you couple that with Alvarez and a healthy Isaac Paredes and you have the bulk of your offense right there.

Our default expectation is always a regression to the mean. In other words, teams will eventually tighten and get closer to the average. In the Astros case, the expectation is some form of slowing down. Of course, the components can change and if they do then the results can change. Adding Lamont Wade and Taylor Trammel to the starting lineup could change that some. A trade down the line could change that some as well. Getting Jeremy Pena back and hitting the way he was before he went on IR could change that calculus some.

The worry is that both the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners are due for positive regression. The Astros have worked very hard to get back into the race, but their finish depends not only on their ability to keep their head above water but on the other teams in the AL West continuing to struggle. A large part of that is going to be to see what the other teams in the division do at the trade deadline.

Next time around we will look at the pitching side of this equation. We know (or think we know) that the Astros are one of the worst pitching teams in baseball. Is that simply a function of allowing too many base runners or have they been inefficient in limiting those base runners from crossing home plate? Stay tuned for the next lab. In the meantime, what do you think is the best way to avoid falling back to the pack? What changes would you make?

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A fresh week of Major League Baseball is loaded with plenty of opportunities to keep things green, is in front of us, with eight MLB contests to keep us busy on this fine Monday. 

Here are my favorite MLB picks for tonight’s MLB slate.

MLB moneyline picks for July 6

Matchup	Pick
Phillies vs Royals	-199
Yankees vs Rays	-108
Astros vs Nationals	+108
Mets vs Braves	-120
Brewers vs Cardinals	-111
Diamondbacks vs Padres	-106
Blue Jays vs Giants	+102
Rockies vs Dodgers	+203

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 7-6.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 6

Phillies vs Royals: Phillies (-199)

Phillies win probability: 66%

It is hard to justify laying nearly 2/1 odds, but aside from Bobby Witt Jr. and Jac Caglianone, the Kansas City Royals' lineup has been lifeless. Over their last 12 games, they own a 71 wRC+, .269 wOBA, and .608 OPS. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Phillies send their ace to the mound and continue to swing the bats well. Lay the run line.

Yankees vs Rays: Rays (-108)

Rays win probability: 52%

I do not give a single hoot that Cam Schlittler is on the mound tonight for the New York Yankees. Their offense owns a 49 wRC+ over its last 12 games. Forty-nine.

There is no more lifeless offense in baseball right now than the Yankees'.

This could end up being one of my biggest misreads; it certainly would not be the first. But the Tampa Bay Rays are one of baseball's hottest offenses, and the -108 odds feel like an absolute steal.

Astros vs Nationals: Astros (+108)

Astros win probability: 48%

This sets up as a battle between two very mediocre starting pitchers in Mike Burrows and Miles Mikolas. Of the two, Mikolas has been the worse arm, both on the season and over his last three starts.

The Washington Nationals' offense has been humming lately, but the Houston Astros have been swinging it well too. When both starters are this shaky, I will gladly take the plus money with the better value.

Mets vs Braves: Braves (-120)

Braves win probability: 55%

They are finally awake. The Atlanta Braves are finally turning things around.

Now they draw a struggling Freddy Peralta, who owns a 10.95 ERA over his last three starts. Meanwhile, Atlanta's offense has posted a 111 wRC+, .329 wOBA, and .743 OPS over its last six games. Take the Braves to beat the New York Mets. 

Brewers vs Cardinals: Brewers (-111)

Brewers win probability: 52%

Is there a world where Dustin May holds it down for 5-plus innings against the St. Louis Cardinals? Sure. But we do not live in that world.

May owns an 8.49 ERA over his last three starts and a 5.40 ERA across his last five.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee Brewers southpaw Shane Drohan has been nails over his last five outings, and Milwaukee's offense has been right there with him, posting a 132 wRC+, .362 wOBA, and .819 OPS.

Brew Crew!

Diamondbacks vs Padres: Padres (-106)

Padres win probability: 52%

The Arizona Diamondbacks' offense is still frozen solid, posting an 82 wRC+, .292 wOBA, and .652 OPS over its last 12 games. Meanwhile, the San Diego Padres have been humming, posting a 130 wRC+, .354 wOBA, and .806 OPS over their last six games.

With Brandon Pfaadt on the mound for Arizona, this is a great spot for the Padres to feast.

Blue Jays vs Giants: Giants (+102)

Giants win probability: 50%

Yet another frozen offense that needs to be faded. The Toronto Blue Jays have gone ice cold across the board, posting just a 48 wRC+, .237 wOBA, and .522 OPS over their last six games.

Kevin Gausman is on the mound, and he owns a 9.00 ERA over his last three outings. Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants have been seeing the ball extremely well over the last week.

Give me the plus money.

Rockies vs Dodgers: Rockies (+203)

Rockies win probability: 33%

Chase the value!!!!

The Colorado Rockies' offense has caught fire over the last two weeks, so getting them at better than 2/1 feels like a fun sprinkle. The Los Angeles Dodgers send left-hander Eric Lauer to the mound, and he owns a 5.63 ERA at home this season.

Meanwhile, the Rockies counter with Kyle Freeland.

It will be sweaty, but I think chasing the value on the Rockies is worth the sprinkle.

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With three wins in their last 15 games, the Mets have all but sealed their fate as sellers at this year’s trade deadline. At this point, they need a miracle to revive their postseason hopes, and the chance for a present-day miracle is not worth surrendering the chance at a more functional future. So the Mets will sell, which is not exactly news.

But what exactly selling looks like for this high-priced bunch is still unclear. Are they tearing this down? Will they start sooner than later? Who will be key to a brighter future and whose departure will clear the way for it?

SNY talked to multiple people familiar with the front office’s thinking to get some answers to these and other questions that will hover around the Mets between now and next month’s trade deadline. The answers, in most cases, appear to be both rational and evolving.

How far will this sell-off go? Are the Mets tearing this down completely?

The Mets plan to contend next year, so they are not approaching this deadline as the first domino to fall in a lengthy rebuild. They are not determined to trade everyone, but they will listen to offers on almost everyone. Players on expiring contracts -- Freddy Peralta, Clay Holmes, Brooks Raley, A.J. Minter, and Tyrone Taylor – will be available, unless something changes their long-term status with the club.  Should the Mets pitch Holmes on an extension, for example, that could obviously change their plans.

As for those players under control beyond this season, the Mets will listen to any offers that might help them long-term without any pressure to accept them. Carson Benge, A.J. Ewing, Nolan McLean, Christian Scott, and other rookie-aged players are all but completely untouchable, given that those are precisely the type of assets a team intending to contend next year would be seeking in deadline deals. But outside of the true youngsters, everyone from Luke Weaver (under control through next season) to Francisco Alvarez (under control for three more seasons) could draw interest in a market that currently looks like it might have more buyers than sellers.

What will the Mets be prioritizing in return?

The Mets are going to chase the best talent available regardless of position, minor league level, or major league readiness, according to people familiar with their thinking. They will not be prioritizing major league needs (like, say, controllable starting pitching) or any specific position, which does not mean they might not find themselves acquiring it if that is the best talent offered them. A top prospect is as valuable to them long-term as it could be to a potential trade partner as the Mets try to improve their major league roster this offseason. 

This approach is emblematic of the way the Mets seem to be thinking about this deadline and roster more broadly: they are not going to overreact to a bad season by giving up on pieces that contributed to it at a discount, and they are not trying to fix all their problems in August knowing how different things could be for them and others by the time the calendar hits November.

Will they try to trade Juan Soto and/or Francisco Lindor?

Steve Cohen told the New York Post last week that he does not anticipate trading Soto or Lindor, and that he is happy to have two superstar players to build around. Toss in the money they’re making and the fact that they are two of the most productive players on an unproductive roster, and deals for either seem even more unlikely than a 2026 Mets turnaround – which is to say, highly unlikely, but it is always safest not to rule out anything completely.

Could they trade Bo Bichette?

People familiar with the Mets' thinking say they still do not have a sense of whether Bichette will opt out of his three-year, $142 million deal after this year. If he finishes strong, he will probably want to take advantage of a weak free agent hitters’ class. If he doesn’t, he will probably want to stay and prove he deserves a long-term deal. In either case, he is an asset on what might be an expiring contract, which means it is fair to ask whether the Mets will explore trading him.

The answer seems to be somewhere between probably and definitely not, though the Mets seem willing to listen on just about anyone in case the market yields unexpected value. But with the money Bichette is making and the fact that he is a former American League batting champ who could remain under control for two more seasons, he is not the kind of player the Mets will feel needs to be moved urgently – particularly when they have not yet seen him at his best for an extended period.

Will they tear down the bullpen?

The bullpen has been the Mets’ best unit by far, and it is loaded with pitchers contenders would love to have. Raley is having one of his best seasons. Weaver is, too. And before his blow-up Sunday, Huascar Brazoban was quietly establishing himself as the kind of versatile, swing-and-miss-capable type that all bullpens would love to have.

Since he has multiple years of team control remaining, Brazoban could be a coveted asset for contenders hoping to bolster their bullpen without making the financial investment in more expensive back-end types. Weaver, too, could be one of the better relievers available if the Mets are willing to part with him. Devin Williams would, too, though two years remaining at roughly $17 million each might scare some teams away.

But as of this week, it seems that while the Mets are open to moving controllable relievers like Brazoban or even Austin Warren, they are not necessarily comfortable starting from scratch in the bullpen in 2027. It seems more likely that one or two of those under team control beyond this season would go, rather than all of them.

Are there any potential trade candidates on the roster flying under the radar?

As much as Mets fans might wish they could offload struggling young players like Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Ronny Mauricio in exchange for future Mets saviors, none of those three is likely to yield a substantial return. That does not mean they are untradable, and in fact, multiple people with rival organizations said Mauricio’s name was brought up in trade discussions as recently as earlier this season.

Still, some within the Mets front office still believe Baty will emerge as a lineup staple, which means they will not part with him for nothing. Mauricio still hasn’t gotten enough major league playing time to render a final verdict. He could certainly entice another team to take a chance. Vientos has been the most confounding member of that trio. Maybe a change of scenery could help him if someone is willing to take the chance.

But the most likely member of that baby Mets generation to be traded might be Alvarez, who has demonstrated an ability to produce as a designated hitter even if his catching has not necessarily evolved into a defensive asset. Given how rare power-hitting catchers are these days, and particularly in this year’s market, Alvarez would represent a cost-controlled asset to a contending team that could pair him with a better defensive catcher and maximize his at-bats as a designated hitter.

Similarly, Luis Torrens is widely respected as one of the game’s most steady defensive catchers and is now under control through the 2028 season after the Mets signed him to a very reasonable $11.5 million extension earlier this season. Obviously, he would be an asset to a contending 2027 Mets team, too. But if a 2026 contender is willing to overpay, the Mets will listen.

When will the Mets start selling?

While the Mets are no longer within striking distance of a winning record by the trade deadline, they do not seem to be in a rush to start trading away players, either. They, like other teams, are inundated with draft preparation ahead of that event next weekend. Once the draft passes, they anticipate the trade market to solidify and the phone calls to pick up.

In other words, while it is not impossible that the Mets will start trading players prior to the All-Star Break, it would qualify as a surprise. But once the draft is behind them and their competitors, expect the move-making to begin.