With the recent signing of Shane Pinto, the Ottawa Senators have done a fine job of locking up the bulk of their core for the next few years, the ones they believe are part of their eventual Stanley Cup formula. Here's a list of some of their top players who are signed for the next three years, along with the year their contract expires.
Tim Stutzle: 2031
Brady Tkachuk: 2028
Jake Sanderson: 2032
Thamas Chabot: 2028
Dylan Cozens: 2030
Shane Pinto: 2030
Fabian Zetterlund: 2028
Ridly Greig: 2029
Linus Ullmark: 2029
So, it would seem like this group's window of opportunity is here, and according to Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman, GM Steve Staios appears ready to do something big to crank it wide open.
While referring to the NHL trade market in his latest 32 Thoughts column, Friedman wrote, "The Senators are lurking, looking to hit a home run."
Given his druthers, Staios would probably prefer that his trade discussions weren't described as lurking, but it is interesting to hear that, according to Friedman, Staios is in the batter's box and looking to go yard.
If nothing else, it shouldn't be a surprise that Stais is out there laying the groundwork for a big swing between now and the deadline, as he's done in the past.
But identifying the proper time to push your chips all-in can be a risky business. For example, Pierre Dorion's timing was badly off with his go-for-broke deals, such as they were.
The season after the Sens' run to the Eastern Final in 2017, Dorion acquired Matt Duchene from Colorado in a costly blockbuster trade involving Nashville. The Senators completely fell apart after that, finishing second-last in the league, sparking a long rebuild. Meanwhile, the Avalanche went from last place the previous season to making the playoffs, sparking a run of excellence they're still on.
In that deal, the Sens had to surrender the 4th overall pick in 2019, which they could have used to take a player like Mo Seider, Matt Boldy, or Cole Caufield, who went 6, 12, and 15, respectively. Any one of whom could now be helping the Senators' cause mightily.
Dorion also went out and got players like Alex DeBrincat and Jakob Chychrun. Neither of them moved the needle, neither of them stayed long, and even after they were flipped, their acquisition damaged the overall quality of Ottawa's assets.
So is now the right time for Staios to make a home run trade? In general terms, the answer is yes, but it obviously needs to make sense.
Last spring, the Sens finally shook off a seven-year playoff drought, and with the group now a little older and wiser, with new lessons learned from their playoff christening, they do appear to be on the doorstep, where supporting the troops with another big-time player or two finally makes sense.
But if Staios chooses that path, whether it's the tough-as-nails defenseman or a proven NHL scorer, his trade partner will likely be a lower-end team that's out of the playoff mix. And at the quarter turn, which team is that, exactly? The season is starting to get away from Calgary, Nashville, and St. Louis, but after that, every other NHL team is within 4 points of a playoff spot. So there aren't many sellers or surrenders yet.
But that will change in the new year, as it always does, and like many people after Christmas, Staios doesn't have as much to spend as he'd like. But he can still do some things.
At first glance, pulling someone off the existing roster would seem counterproductive, but in the name of improving through rebalancing, Staios certainly hasn't been shy to do it. In the past year and a half, he's shipped out Josh Norris to get Dylan Cozens and Jakob Chychrun to get Nick Jensen. Is there another deal like those to be made?
On the other hand, Staios could choose to deal away picks or prospects. But they don't have a first-round pick next summer. Would they deal their top pick in 2027 or 2028? Would they ship out former first-rounders like Carter Yakemchuk or Logan Hensler?
They certainly could, but that comes with its own long-term pitfalls, which is true of any team that gambles away some of its future to take a shot now. But the Sens have already parted with a lot of their future to make some of their ill-advised (and poorly communicated) trades of the past.
If they peddle away much more in the name of taking their shot, things could get ugly when this current Cup-or-bust window closes, and the Senators might find themselves in a rebuild that's even uglier than the one they just emerged from.
The good news for Sens fans is that, when it comes to trades, Staios' batting average has been pretty good so far. As he lurks near the plate, it will be fascinating to see if he gets another pitch he likes this season.
By Steve Warne
The Hockey News Ottawa
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