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The Los Angeles Dodgers (-170) aim to even a four-game series as they host the Milwaukee Brewers (+163) on Sunday. 

Logan Henderson vs. Tarik Skubal represents a fascinating starting pitching matchup for this potential playoff lookahead.

See why my Brewers vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, Aug. 16 are backing Skubal and the Boys in Blue.

Who will win Brewers vs Dodgers today: Dodgers -1.5 (+124)

The best roster in baseball, arguably the best starting pitcher in the sport, and plus money available on the run line? I'm game. 

Tarik Skubal (2.80 FIP) should dominate against a Milwaukee Brewers lineup that struggles against lefties (93 wRC+) and has been in poor form all month (76 wRC+). The bullpen is in a great spot for run suppression after using a single reliever in Saturday's contest.

Logan Henderson's numbers are terrific (2.69 xERA, 109 Pitching+), but that's making him overvalued in the market after such a small sample size (56 1/3 IP), and his flyball tendencies are an issue given the weather.

I'd play the Los Angeles Dodgers down to +115 on the run line.

COVERS INTEL: Henderson runs a fifth percentile ground-ball rate. That's a concern given the weather (low 80s, winds up to nine mph blowing out to center field), especially with his 8.9% barrel rate.

Brewers vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-126)

Both starting pitchers have certifiably elite metrics. Skubal (121 Pitching+) has superb numbers against this Milwaukee lineup (.483 OPS), and although Henderson is live to give up a long ball, his 26.9% K-BB% is no joke. 

For two playoff contenders, neither team is hitting like you'd expect. Both rank in the Bottom 10 in wRC+ this month, so a crooked number against great pitching would come as a surprise. 

Both teams like where they're at in the bullpen for this contest. Milwaukee has been lights-out in relief this month (1.97 ERA, 2.65 FIP), while all of L.A.'s best arms are available after being rested a day ago.

Brewers vs Dodgers home run prediction: Shohei Ohtani (+262)

Nine of the 12 home runs Logan Henderson has allowed in his career have been to left-handed hitters, who tag him for an 11.2% barrel rate. 

The 24-year-old throws either his fastball or his changeup 82% of the time to lefties, and that could be a recipe for disaster against Shohei Ohtani.

The four-time MVP's 8.6 runs above average against changeups is a full run higher than the next-closest hitter, and he has a career 173 wRC+ against heaters.

Brewers vs Dodgers weather

It's warm, and the wind is blowing out to center, which could help home-run hitters.

Brewers vs Dodgers odds

• Moneyline: Brewers +163 | Dodgers -170
• Run line: Brewers +1.5 (-133) | Dodgers -1.5 (+127)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+117) | Under 7.5 (-122)

Brewers vs Dodgers trend

The Brewers are 3-8 O/U when Logan Henderson starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Brewers vs Dodgers and game info

Brewers vs Dodgers latest injuries

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It's Dylan Cease bump day, which means I'm all over Toronto as part of my Blue Jays vs. Yankees predictions.

The Toronto Blue Jays come into today in a Wild Card spot, and are looking to sweep the New York Yankees as -125 favorites at BET99.

Let’s dive into my MLB picks for Sunday, Aug. 16 and cash a same-game parlay, shall we?

Yankees vs Blue Jays predictions

Yankees vs Blue Jays best bet: Blue Jays moneyline (-125)

If the New York Yankees want to steal a game in Toronto, they're in for a tough time against AL Cy Young odds candidate Dylan Cease, who's allowed just four earned runs across his last 27 innings pitched.

Cease has the highest strikeout percentage of his career (36%), and is going up against Ryan Weathers, a lefty the Blue Jays have owned (13-for-37, four homers) over the last couple of seasons. Let's back them to do just that this afternoon.

I'd bet this up to -135.

COVERS INTEL:George Springer has the hot hand against Weathers, going 3-for-5 with two home runs while rocking a .403 xBA. If the Jays win today, he'll be at the center of it.

Yankees vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)

Brett Bateman might be the most consistent hitter on the Blue Jays, and I won't stand by and watch him cash this bet once more without me being in on it (he's cashed this wager in three of his last four games).

Elsewhere, I'm expecting Cease to be good in one of the biggest games of the season. Don't overthink this one.

Yankees vs Blue Jays SGP

• Blue Jays moneyline
• Brett Bateman 2+ H/R/RBI
• Dylan Cease Under 1.5 earned runs

Yankees vs Blue Jays home run pick: George Springer (+525)

If you're looking for one player to go yard today, look no further than Springer.

He's hit two home runs in just five at-bats against Weathers in his career and is rocking an astronomical 1.118 xSLG. Sometimes the numbers don't lie.

He hasn't hit a bomb in nearly a month, but today feels like the day.

Yankees vs Blue Jays odds

• Moneyline: New York (+125) | Toronto (-120)
• Run line: New York +1.5 (-215) | Toronto -1.5 (+175)
• Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-120) | Under 6.5 (+100)

Yankees vs Blue Jays trend

The Under is 8-2 in the Blue Jays' last 10 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Blue Jays.

How to watch Yankees vs Blue Jays and game info

Yankees vs Blue Jays latest injuries

Yankees vs Blue Jays weather

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We asked a question about the Phillies promoting Alex McFarlane and here were the results.

Crazy enough, the Phillies promoted McFarlane that exact day the poll went live, so maybe the fans know what they are talking about.

The idea of keeping McFarlane down as long as they did was probably married to needing a long reliever in the bullpen. Starters weren’t going long in starts and someone had to lock up a few innings here and there, meaning it couldn’t be a bullpen full of one inning guys. Alan Rangel came up when needed and gave the team a few innings, after which McFarlane was summoned.

However, there were several games in which McFarlane was a better option than, say, Chase Shugart or Kyle Backhus during this season. The stuff is clearly better, yet the team continued to prefer he hone his craft in the minor leagues. That craft is likely due to shoddy command, as evidenced by his rolling out walk rates consistently over 11% in the minors. By this point, the team seems to just rather his electric stuff be used in the major leagues, living with the occasional walk if needed, but working with the major league pitching staff to maybe help with that particular issue.

This post brought to you by FanDuel.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (63-55) won 3-1 (BOX SCORE)

Sugar Land got on the board in the 2nd inning scoring a run on a Brooks solo home run. Mayer got the start for the Space Cowboys and pitched well allowing one run over 6 innings. Sugar Land got a run in the 7th on a wild pitch and another in the 8th inning on an Alexander RBI double. The pen tossed 3 scoreless innings as they closed out the 3-1 win.

Note: Mayer has a 3.12 ERA overall this season.

• Ray Delgado, 3B: 1-for-3, R, 2B, BB
• CJ Alexander, RF: 1-for-3, 2B, RBI, BB
• Trenton Brooks, 1B: 2-for-4, 2 R, HR, RBI

• Bryce Mayer, RHP: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K (WIN)
• Michael Knorr, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
• Logan VanWey, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Roddery Munoz, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K (SAVE)

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (53-60) won 10-6 (BOX SCORE)

The Hooks got on the board in the 2nd inning on a Hernandez 2 run home run. Taylor started for the Hooks and pitched well allowing 2 runs over 5 innings while striking out 5 batters. The offense rallied for 6 runs in the 6th inning on a Schiavone RBI single, wild pitch, Hernandez RBI single, Austin walk and Janek 2 run single. The offense added 2 more runs in the 8th on an Austin RBI single and Janek groundout. Mancini allowed a few runs in relief but Chirinos was able to close the door as the Hooks won 10-6.

Note: Taylor has a 2.05 ERA since returning from the IL.

• Alejandro Nunez, 2B: 0-for-4, R, BB
• Trevor Austin, LF: 1-for-4, R, RBI, BB
• Walker Janek, C: 3-for-5, R, 3B, 2 RBI, SB
• Will Bush, 1B: 1-for-3, R, 2 BB
• Jason Schiavone, DH: 1-for-5, R, RBI
• Max Holy, SS: 0-for-4, R, BB, SB
• Chase Call, RF: 1-for-4, BB, SB
• Alberto Hernandez, 3B: 2-for-4, 2 R, HR, 3 RBI
• Kenni Gomez, CF: 1-for-4, 2 R, 2B

• Andrew Taylor, RHP: 5.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K (WIN)
• Railin Perez, RHP: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
• Ramsey David, RHP: 0.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• Joey Mancini, RHP: 0.2 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• Amilcar Chirinos, RHP: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K (SAVE)

A+: Asheville Tourists (38-73) lost 19-6 (BOX SCORE)

Smith started for Asheville and struggled allowing 9 runs over 4 innings of work. The offense got a run in the first inning on a Moss RBI single. The pen for Asheville struggled big time allowing another 10 runs. Asheville did get 3 runs in the 7th inning on a Garcia RBI double, Newman RBI single and Powell RBI double. In the 8th, the offense scored 2 runs on a Daudet RBI single and Newman groundout but that was it from the offense as they fell 19-6.

Note: Moss is hitting .364 in Asheville.

• Justin Thomas, CF: 0-for-3, R, 2 BB
• Caden Powell, DH: 3-for-5, 2B, RBI
• Jack Moss, 1B: 3-for-5, RBI
• Anthony Huezo, RF: 0-for-4, R, BB, SB
• Nick Monistere, SS: 0-for-4, R, BB
• Zach Daudet, 3B: 1-for-4, RBI, BB
• Kyle Walker, 2B: 1-for-4, R
• John Garcia, C: 1-for-3, R, BB
• DJ Newman, LF: 2-for-4, R, 2 RBI

• Parker Smith, RHP: 4.0 IP, 10 H, 9 R, 9 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• Jose Varela, RHP: 3.0 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 1 K
• Joan Ogando, RHP: 1.2 IP, 2 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 6 BB, 2 K
• Yosweld Vasquez, RHP: 0.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (57-52) won 13-11 (BOX SCORE)

The Woodpeckers got on the board in the first inning on a Luciano RBI single. They scored 2 more runs in the third inning on a Hughes RBI single and a run on a wild pitch. Ardines got the start and was pitching well but then allowed 4 runs in the 4th inning. The offense responded with 3 runs on a Cauro RBI double, a wild pitch and a Hughes RBI double. The Woodpeckers put the game out of reach scoring 5 runs in the 8th inning on a Piasecki 2 run double and Durnin 3 run home run. The pen was solid getting 1.1 scoreless from Estridge and 4 scoreless from Carrera as he closed out the 11-4 win.

Note: Hughes is hitting .389 through four games.

• Kam Durnin, SS: 2-for-4, 3 R, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB, SB
• Logan Hughes, DH: 2-for-3, 2 R, 3B, 2 RBI, 3 SB
• Waner Luciano, 3B: 1-for-3, RBI, BB, SB
• Owen Nowak, CF: 0-for-3, R, BB
• Luis De Leon, C: 1-for-4, R
• Jadyn Fielder, LF: 0-for-3, R, BB
• Carlos Cauro, 1B: 1-for-3, 2 R, RBI, BB
• Aaron Piasecki, 2B: 2-for-4, R, 2B, 2 RBI

• Adrian Ardines, RHP: 3.2 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
• Carson Estridge, RHP: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K (WIN)
• Jesus Carrera, RHP: 4.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K (SAVE)

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Ethan Pecko – 1:05 CT

CC: James Hicks – 1:05 CT

AV: Dylan Howard – 12:05 CT

FV: TBD – 4:05 CT

Today, on August 16th, it feels like the Yankees’ offense is in such a hole that the prospect of a deep postseason run—this team’s ultimate goal—is as unlikely a proposition as one could hope for. Ultimately, though, no matter how real these issues are, we know that there is an element of a local low in a 162-game season that won’t last. In the meantime, these struggles could easily snowball into problems for the few healthy standouts in the Yankees lineup this season. Specifically speaking, Ben Rice and George Lombard Jr.

Carrying on the success of last season’s breakout campaign, Rice is now indisputably one of the more powerful hitters in the American League in 2026. Early in the year, with a fully healthy lineup, Rice was legitimately producing like one of the MVP candidates, but that has changed since the start of June. As much as we could dive into those struggles, assuming we’re confident of his long-term abilities, the focus here is on addressing a change in expectations and need.

Inadvertently suffering from the absence of Aaron Judge and the way pitchers can attack him because of it—from a psychological standpoint—Rice, for the first time in his career, is dealing with the pressure of anchoring a lineup. He is the one, in the current situation, the only one, in this lineup that opposing teams single out to create a plan of attack.

While the worst performers in this lineup seem to test the limits of this theory, frustration may only come from a place of expectation. Having seen what Rice can do at his best, a 4-for-40 run with which he starts August all of a sudden is under a microscope that it otherwise wouldn’t have been had the team not been slumping this badly, offensively.

Sure, Rice is the type of hitter that could go on a tear at any moment; in fact, we saw that right around the All-Star Break, but his production shined the most when inserted into a context completely different from the one he is currently in. A potential failure to raise his game even further in this moment should not be held against him, especially when you address that on paper, this lineup, even in its current construction, should not be struggling this much. Asking Helliot Ramos to mash lefties, Trent Grisham to get on base often, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. to do something are all far more reasonable requests than having Rice carry the lineup on his back. Yes, fairness is often brushed to the side in the cruel reality of high-level sports, but the healthiest course of action for this team’s success moving forward lies in acknowledging all of this.

Moving further down the lineup, another hitter who is in a separate but comparable place to Rice is George Lombard Jr. The new darling of this team, Lombard almost instantaneously made his way into the hearts of Yankees fans everywhere not only for all that he does on both sides of the ball but also in comparison with his predecessors. Already, a couple of weeks into his MLB career, Lombard probably deals with a level of expectation that’s ridiculously high even for a prospect of his caliber. As the games get more and more important, there is a balance to strike between capitalizing on what you’re receiving from this youngster and not overexposing him—not leaving the shortstop more vulnerable to the ups and downs that are natural with a rookie.

Saturday’s loss against the Jays is a good example of this, as Lombard had a fine game, reaching safely multiple times, but that didn’t generate all the action it could due to the struggles of the hitters behind him—number eight and nine in the order. There’s only so much one player, a rookie no less, can do.

Lombard will slump at points as he adjusts to major league life, and as top-flight pitchers adjust to him. Rice has more of a track record, but even he shouldn’t be expected to carry an elite offense all on his own. But the current state of the Yankee offense has shifted expectations, and it’s important to not let that blur our evaluations of two players who look like cornerstones for the Yankees.

Meet the Mets

The Mets came from behind to walk off the Nationals in a thrilling 5-4 victory. Sean Manaea provided desperately needed length, the bullpen held firm, and the Mets mounted a ninth inning rally that culminated in a Francisco Alvarez game-tying double and a Francisco Lindor walk-off knock to win it.

Choose your recap: Amazin’ Avenue, MLB.com, Newsday, New York Daily News, New York Post

Given the disaster the Dodgers are dealing with right now, it is increasingly looking like the Mets made the right decision when it comes to Edwin Díaz.

The Mets are evaluating their infield options for 2027, writes Will Sammon of The Athletic.

In rock bottom, perhaps the 2026 Mets have found some fun, writes Laura Albanese of Newsday.

Around the National League East

The Marlins put together a four-run eighth inning to help notch a come from behind victory over the Reds 8-4.

A seven-run fifth inning powered the Phillies’ 9-1 rout of the Twins.

The Phillies signed right-hander Casey Lawrence to a minor league contract.

It was a rough night at the office for Grant Holmes, as the Braves fell to the Diamondbacks 10-3.

Around Major League Baseball

Yesterday, Cardinals prospect Joshua Báez became the first player in baseball history to homer in his first three big league at-bats.

Mike Trout received the 2026 Heart and Hustle Award.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been placed on the 7-day concussion IL after an awkward play at third base on Friday night when George Lombard Jr. of the Yankees was reaching for a wild throw when his knee collided with the left side of Guerrero’s head. Guerrero was able to scamper home and score, but was immediately removed from the game after that.

Aaron Judge played catch yesterday, as he continues to rehab from a fractured right rib.

Shohei Ohtani, who is hitting but has not pitched since July 3, threw a bullpen on Friday as he progresses closer to a return to the mound.

Jared Greenspan of MLB.com spoke to some of the pitchers with the lowest arm angles in the game about how their unconventional motion began and how they’ve been successful with it.

Brent Maguire of MLB.com wondered if one or more notably struggling stars could turn things around and help lift his team during the stretch run.

The Milwaukee Brewers acquired Jonathan Ornelas from the Athletics yesterday for cash considerations.

This Date in Mets History

On this date in 1987, the Mets scored 23 runs against the Cubs with Darryl Strawberry having a huge day at the plate with 11 total bases.

Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Miguel Rojas says he’s thinking about changing his mind on retiring, and that it’s possible he’ll stick around for another year before he plans to enter into a hybrid coaching/front office role.

“I want to help young players," Rojas told USA TOAY Sports' Bob Nightengale, “any way I can. And one day I want to manage. I believe I can do it."

Rojas, 37, played hero for the Dodgers in Game 7 of the 2025 World Series with a game-tying home run in the ninth inning, forcing the game to extras. Los Angeles won it in the 10th inning, the team's second consecutive championship.

“No one expected Miguel Rojas to hit that home run," Dodgers manager Dave Roberts says. “No one."

Said third baseman Max Muncy: “(Rojas) is one of the best teammates I ever had, and just one of the best people in baseball."

Nightengale's Notebook: Latest MLB rumors

During the first half of the season, Justin Wrobleski was one of the most reliable pitchers in the Dodgers rotation, earning him the first All-Star selection of his career. Since the beginning of the second half of the regular season, Wrobleski has not been able to carry over the same success he had in the first half.

Over his last four starts, Wrobleski has allowed 19 earned runs over 19 2/3 innings and his ERA has shot up from 2.62 to 3.56 over that span. After allowing just eight home runs over his first 16 starts, the southpaw has allowed 11 home runs since July 28, including two consecutive starts of allowing four home runs against both the Seattle Mariners and Chicago Cubs.

Although Wrobleski allowed another two home runs in Saturday’s loss to the Milwaukee Brewers, he was able to go a full six innings while walking just one hitter and striking out six. Despite the loss, both Wrobleski and Dave Roberts noted that the left-hander had a decent outing outside of the home run pitch to Joey Ortiz, per Joaquin Ruiz of the Los Angeles Times.

“I even told him … it was one bad pitch for me, the Ortiz pitch,” Roberts said. “I thought he did a really nice job.”

Tyler Glasnow is reaching the last legs of his rehab assignment after tossing 3 2/3 scoreless innings with Oklahoma City on Friday, and the right-hander will need just one more rehab start before he’s set to rejoin the big league squad, reports Dylan Hernandez of the California Post.

“It was a good one yesterday,” Roberts said. “I think our thought is going to do another one, five (innings) and 75 (pitches), and then he’ll join us.”

Tarik Skubal is set to make his second start at home with his new team on Sunday, and he will be facing right-hander Logan Henderson. Those same two pitchers found themselves in trade talks for each other just weeks ago, as both Sonja Chen and Adam McCalvy of MLB.com discuss the trade conversations between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Detroit Tigers that ultimately fell by the wayside.

“It’s funny how that works out,” Henderson said.