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It wasn’t exactly the Mets’ season in 2026, was it? As of August 27, they sit 14 games under .500, 12 games out of a Wild Card spot, and 19 games out of the division lead in the NL East.

But while it’s a bit too late to say “never say never” regarding any 2026 playoff aspirations, it’s never too early to say “there’s always next year.” Luckily for Mets fans, there are quite a few intriguing storylines to watch as this season winds down, from rookies chasing history to prospects gaining power to unexpected names vying for a spot in the Mets’ future plans.

Here are the 10 most important questions for the month of September as the Mets look ahead to 2027.

Note: All stats as of August 28

WILL THE YOUNG STARTERS TIRE?
Nolan McLean, Christian Scott, and Zac Thornton have each put together promising seasons, but all three are either approaching or have already surpassed their previous career highs in innings pitched. The Mets don’t appear interested in fully shutting down any of their young starters, so seeing how they respond when pushed into uncharted territory (something Andy Green will surely monitor from a player development standpoint) will be an indicator of just how much volume to expect from the trio in 2027.

WHO IS LINDOR AT SHORT?
For all the factors that have contributed to the Mets’ 2026 downward spiral, Lindor’s absence–and his defensive regression while on the field–has surely been one of the most critical pieces. Each of the previous four seasons, he posted an OPS+ over 120 with an Outs Above Average in the 89th-percentile or better. This season, while his offensive numbers have dipped (109 OPS+), his defensive numbers plummeted, falling to the 30th-percentile in OAA. He also made a number of uncharacteristic mental mistakes early in the season. But if he continues to flash the leather down the stretch (as he did in the ninth inning against the Brewers on Tuesday night), perhaps he can prove those metrics an aberration rather than a new norm for the former Platinum Glove Award winner.

HOW FAR WILL CARSON BENGE GO?
This entry could have also been titled, “How hard will Carson Benge throw?” But part of the fun of watching Benge this next month will be seeing just how many benchmarks he can reach on all sides of the ball. Will he become the first Mets rookie to record a 20/20 season? Will he overtake Mookie Wilson’s long-held franchise record of 24 stolen bases as a rookie, and if so, will he actually hold the new record (or will that honor go to A.J. Ewing)? Will he make any more history with his dazzling outfield assists, or will teams learn to stop running on him? Perhaps most intriguing, will any of it be enough to make up for the WAR deficit between him and JJ Wetherholt, earning him the National League Rookie of the Year Award and earning the Mets a 2027 draft pick via the Prospect Promotion Incentive?

LAST CALL FOR A PAIR OF BABY METS?
Mark Vientos and Brett Baty, the bell may toll for thee. There have been glimpses of greatness from both former prospects. Vientos went on a legendary tear during the team’s magical 2024 surge to a playoff spot before clubbing five homers in the postseason. Baty put up 3.0 bWAR in 2025 with above-average offensive production and above-average defense at third base. But consistently continues to elude them both. It hasn’t been easy for either player this season, with Vientos battling injuries and Baty being asked to learn several new positions after finding a comfortable home at third last season. But the bottom line is, in over 650 combined plate appearances this season, the duo’s OPS+ is below 80. It’s not inconceivable one or both of them could break out next season, but barring a massive September showing, there’s every chance the Mets part with the homegrown pair this offseason.

WHICH RELIEVERS PITCH INTO ’27 PLANS?
Nate Lavender. Jefry Yan. Daniel Duarte. You probably didn’t know their names a month ago, but after a bullpen shuffle at the Deadline, the Mets have received surprisingly stellar relief pitching from a corps of up-and-comers. Aside from Devin Williams and Reed Garrett, the Mets essentially have no established relievers under contract through 2027, leaving the bullpen wide open for any number of these new names to secure a spot if they keep rolling through September.

JARED YOUNG, IS THIS FOR REAL?
If I told you on Opening Day that the Mets’ primary first baseman would post a 114 OPS+ and neutral Fielding Run Value of 0, you’d probably say, That’s a slightly disappointing but decent season from All-Star signing Jorge Polanco, who is making $20 million this year. But by gosh, those are Jared Young’s numbers! He’s 31 years old, had played in only 44 major league games prior to this season, and is under team control through 2031. Have the Mets hit the jackpot with a reliable left-handed bat for the middle of their order? Or has this stretch from Young been something of a mirage? He’s hitting .303 with an .807 OPS in August, so he’s only getting better with time, but the way he finishes may determine how he factors into the Mets’ 2027 plans.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR TONG?
This season hasn’t quite marked the step forward some were hoping for Jonah Tong. After winning the Minor League Pitching Prospect of the Year award in 2025, Tong has pitched to a 4.86 ERA in Syracuse, seeing his once-otherworldly K/9 drop to 10.6 and his BB/9 rise to 5.1. But he’s still only 23 years old, and when the Minor League season comes to a close in early September, he could be called upon for another cup of coffee in the majors to absorb more big-league experience. The Mets could place Tong in Robert Stock’s rotation slot, or keep both in a six-man rotation – potentially a way to ease the innings burden on their other young starters, as previously discussed.

IS SENGA A CLOSER?
After three years of tinkering with his mechanics and his pitch distribution, did the Mets and Kodai Senga finally strike gold? Did they uncover the answer? Was he secretly a wipeout closer this whole time? It’s not such a crazy idea. The fastball and forkball can be a devastating 1-2 punch, and if he’s only throwing to batters once per game, two pitches might be all he needs. If Senga gets comfortable in the role over the next month and “Beat It” becomes a ninth-inning mainstay at Citi Field, the question of the back-end of the bullpen since Edwin Díaz’s departure – as well as the multi-year question of Senga’s trustworthiness as a valuable member of the pitching staff – might be answered entering the offseason.

ARE YOU OPT-IN OR ARE YOU OPT-OUT?
The Mets might as well host a “The Bachelor”-style rose ceremony in November. Bo Bichette, do you give this rose to David Stearns? David, do you give this rose to Luis Robert Jr.? A pair of All-Stars who just an offseason ago were blockbuster acquisitions could be on their way out – or returning to Flushing – depending on how the contracts are settled. Bichette would be opting out of $84 million over the next two years, and given recent reporting about his bonds with the Mets rookie outfielders, perhaps the salary and company will entice him to stay in New York despite the team’s relatively gloomy season. As for Robert, the choice belongs to the Mets, who have a club option for $20 million to retain the outfielder through the 2027 season. Robert has shown off his power this year, but he’s also shown his injury proneness. With Soto, Ewing, and Benge undoubtedly set to occupy the starting outfield next season (though there’s certainly a case to be made that Soto should shift to a full-time DH role sooner rather than later), will Robert prove he still has a place on the team?

WHICH PROSPECTS RISE TO THE TOP?
Between hot-hitting draftees and high-profile Deadline acquisitions, the Mets’ minor league system appears to have an influx of talent. Currently, their No. 1 prospect according to MLB Pipeline is Jefferson Rojas, acquired from the Cubs in the Tyrone Taylor/Clay Holmes trade, with southpaw Jonathan Santucci, 18-year-old Elian Peña, and 2025 first-rounder Mitch Voit trailing right behind. Die-hard Mets fan Sammy Stafura, acquired from the Pirates in exchange for Luke Weaver, sits at No. 8, Canadian second baseman Émilien Pitre is listed at No. 11, and Billy Amick – currently seventh among all minor leaguers with 33 home runs – isn’t even ranked in the Top 30. It will be fun to watch how these potential future Mets – the homegrown ones and the newly-added ones – perform over the final weeks of the minor league season as they attempt to separate themselves from the crop entering next year.

The New York Mets (61-76), who seemingly only play first-place clubs nowadays, continue that trend as they travel to Tampa for a three-game set with the AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays (82-54). The two teams last squared off in June 2025, with the Rays sweeping the series at Citi Field. The Rays also swept the 2024 in May 2024 at Tropicana Field, which was well before the Mets used the power of Grimace and OMG to forge their unforgettable comeback and postseason run.

For the third straight series, the Mets took on a first place club, and for the third straight series. After dropping two out of three to the AL Central-leading White Sox in Chicago and two out of three to the NL Central-best Brewers, the Mets could not best the AL West-leading Astros despite their mid record. The Mets bookended the series with losses, falling in 3-1 on Friday night and 6-3 on Sunday afternoon. They came away with a 6-2 win on Saturday thanks to Nolan McLean’s brilliance and a terrific offensive performance from Jared Young, who drove in three of the team’s runs and contributed three of their hits.

In total, the Mets struggled with hitters in scoring position in the series. They went 0-for-11 in their two losses while going 4-for-12 in their win, making them a combined 4-for-23 against Houston in the series loss. The Mets ended up leaving 16 on base across the series. They did get an offensive boost with the unexpected return of Juan Soto, who did not need a rehab assignment after missing 31 games with a grade 2 strain in his left calf. He picked up the go-ahead hit in Saturday’s win, which came after he fouled a ball off his calf. Then on Sunday, he hit a home run in the first inning immediately following Francisco Lindor’s lead-off homer. In all, he went 2-for-7 with a walk and two runs batted in. While it’s too late to mean anything in the standings, we can all agree watching the Mets with Soto playing is preferable to the alternative.

For those who care about team history and the home run standings in franchise history, Lindor’s home run on Sunday was the 155th of his career as a Met, pushing him past Dave Kingman for sixth on the all-time franchise list—he previously tied Kingman with his home run in Tuesday’s win against the Brewers. Next up in Lindor’s path is Howard Johnson, who hit 192 home runs as a Met. Assuming he remains a Met (which should happen and seems extremely likely), it’s hard to imagine Lindor surpasses HoJo next season, barring a terrific conclusion to his season and a healthy (and power-heavy) 2027 campaign—this also assumes a full season that isn’t affected by a potential lockout. More likely, assuming he plays out his contract in New York, he’ll end up in the top 5 of the team’s home run rankings some time during the 2028 season. With five years left on his contract, it’s easy to imagine Lindor at least gets by HoJo and, eventually Mike Piazza’s 220 dingers, but this again depends on health and other circumstances beyond anyone’s control.

The Rays enter this series on a high after sweeping the Padres in Tropicana Field to extend their winning streak to four games. The victory helped them extend their lead over the Yankees to 4.5 games as they look to hold off the Bronx Bombers, who have been on the comeback trail as of late. The Rays are tied with the Braves and Dodgers for the second-most wins in baseball, trailing only the Brewers in that respect. They are one of only two teams, along with Milwaukee, to sport a .600+ winning percentage this year (thanks to having 54 losses, compared to Atlanta and L.A.’s 55).

The Rays are led primarily by their offense, which has the best OPS (.733) and wRC+ (105) in the American League. They don’t really hit a lot of home runs, as their 142 dingers are 10th among AL squads), and they don’t score a ton, as their 616 runs scored is sixth among AL teams. However, they do not strike out a lot, as their 18.6% K% is the best in the AL. Their rotation also sports a 3.57 ERA, which is third int he AL, with a 3.78 FIP, which is fourth among AL squads. Their bullpen is their weak spot, boasting a 4.06 ERA at the start of play today, which is eighth in the AL and squarely middle of the pack.

The Mets just got done seeing Yordan Alvarez, who is going to run away with the AL MVP award. However, Junior Caminero will not be far behind him in the voting, and in fact is on his tail in two of the three Triple Crown categories. Caminero enters play with 37 homers and 87 RBI (second and third in the AL, respectively) while hitting .282/.369/.539 with a 149 wRC+ and 4.3 fWAR in 136 games. He’s been, by far, the best hitter on the Rays this year. His teammate, Chandler Simpson, has also been chasing Alvarez for the AL batting title. Simpson currently finds himself second to Alvarez with a .309 average in 128 games played. He’s slashing .309/.338/.363 and has not hit a homer, though he uses his speed to his advantage, leading the AL with 37 stolen bases. Yandy Díaz is not far behind Simpson, placing third with a .303 batting average while slashing .303/.371/.465 with 20 homers and a 134 wRC+ in 131 games. Former friend Cedric Mullins also calls the Rays home this year and is hitting .206/.297/.355 with 14 homers, 18 stolen bases, and an 80 wRC+ in 119 games.

Monday, August 31: Robert Stock vs. Ian Seymour, 6:40 PM EDT on SNY

Stock (2026): 20.2 IP, 21 K, 13 BB, 2 HR, 7.40 ERA, 4.63 FIP, 182 ERA-

Stock got knocked around in his last start, but even with Johan Tong coming close to a seven-inning no-hitter in the minors, he still kept his rotation spot for another turn. The Brewers knocked him around early and often, and the right-hander was tattooed for seven earned runs on a season-high 10 hits over four innings. In the loss, he struck out two, walked two, and allowed one home run. His days in the rotation appear numbered, unless he can bounce back quickly, beginning with his Monday night start.

Seymour (2026): 107.0 IP, 128 K, 32 BB, 19 HR, 4.21 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 100 ERA-

Seymour will make his 12th start of the season to go along with his 30 relief outings. The left-hander is coming off an outing in which he entered in the eighth and finished the game for Tampa Bay, picking up the loss against the Tigers after allowing four runs (three earned) on seven hits over 5 2/3 innings. He did not issue a walk, struck out five, and surrendered a home run as he picked up his fifth loss of the year.

Tuesday, September 1: Sean Manaea vs. Freddy Peralta, 6:40 PM EDT on SNY

Manaea (2026): 122.2 IP, 120 K, 40 BB, 20 HR, 4.55 ERA, 4.57 FIP, 112 ERA-

Manaea, who had been so good in his previous two starts until he got to the third time through the opposing team’s lineup, was hit early and often in his last start against the Brewers. He was charged with six earned runs on eight hits, with three strikeouts and one walk over 5 2/3 innings. He did well to make it to the sixth considering how badly he was hit around early in his start, which helped save the pen a bit. Still, it represented the first time since July 18 that he failed to complete six innings, a span of six starts. Manaea has been a bright spot of late given how he started the year, and he’ll look to end the season strong, especially to build some positive momentum heading into the final year of his contract in 2027.

Peralta (2026): 141.0 IP, 133 K, 54 BB, 22 HR, 5.11 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 125 ERA-

If you can believe it, Peralta has actually had a tougher time since leaving the Mets, which has added to the pain of his 2026 campaign. The former Met has made five starts since the trade to Tampa Bay and has a 5.60 ERA and a 4.88 FIP across 27 1/3 innings. He is, however, coming off his best start with his new club, a six inning shutout performance against the Tigers that earned him his sixth victory of the season and his first with the Rays. In the winning effort, he scattered two hits, struck out four, and did not walk a batter. In his prior start, he did go seven innings against the Orioles but he allowed five earned runs on seven hits and suffered the loss.

Wednesday, September 2: Christian Scott vs. Shane McClanahan, 6:40 PM EDT on SNY

Scott (2026): 94.2 IP, 113 K, 44 BB, 10 HR, 3.80 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 93 ERA-

Scott put together a solid effort through five innings against the Astros, but unfortunately rank into a brick wall in the sixth and ended up being saddled with the loss. Through five innings, he surrendered just one hit, walked two, and did not allow a run. Then in the sixth after recording the first out, he issued three straight walks, which ended his night. Nate Lavender came in to relieve the right-hander and allowed all three inherited runners to score, which hurt Scott’s numbers. In the end he walked five batters, and he has now walked nine over nine innings in his last two starts, which is not what you want from the younger. He had a really rough August, finishing, finishing the month with a 6.04 ERA and a 4.54 FIP in 25 1/3 innings.

McClanahan (2026): 113.0 IP, 103 K, 38 BB, 9 HR, 3.19 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 76 ERA-

It has been a long road back for McClanahan, who underwent Tommy John Surgery in August 2023 and missed all of 2024, and then missed the entire 2025 season with major nerve irritation that prevented him from pitching. The left-hander enters play with a 3.19 ERA and a 3.41 FIP, both of these are well within his career norms, and his ERA is ninth among AL starting pitchers with at least 110 innings pitched. He picked up a win in his last start against the Padres after allowing four runs (three earned) on three hits in 5 2/3 innings.

There are 25 games remaining to the Orioles and they get to play the next three of them against the team with the worst record in all of MLB. That’s the Colorado Rockies, a team that has been down and out for quite some time. They haven’t had a winning season from 2019 to the present and they’ve lost 100+ games in each of the last three seasons. At 52-84, they’ve already won more games than they did a year ago. They might manage to avoid 100+ this year.

The Orioles are fresh off taking care of business against the Athletics, another pretty bad team. Their road trip continues into the Mile High City. They need to continue playing well and make the most of this opportunity. Their next ten games after this, and 19 of their remaining 25 games, come against teams that are in or strongly contending for a postseason spot. They’ve blown too many games already this year, putting them in a position where they cannot afford to blow these.

It’s been easy to lose sight of this because they have played a whole lot of stupid games that they lost in this time, but in fact, from July 9 to now, the Orioles have gone 26-18. That’s real, actually-good baseball over quite a decent stretch of the season. They’ve played to a .591 winning percentage for a month and a half now. It’s just that this might not end up meaning all that much if they don’t play close to that pace for the final 25 games too. They are a game back of a playoff spot right now and these next few days are their chance to get themselves back into that position.

Note on the Orioles starting pitchers for the series: As of this writing, the Orioles have not listed any starting pitchers. It’s TBD all the way down. Cade Povich was supposed to start Sunday’s game for Triple-A Norfolk and then did not do so. This may turn out to be connected to the TBD situation. I don’t want to think about Povich pitching in Coors Field.

If the Orioles rotation proceeds with its already established order, then it will end up as Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, and Brandon Young in this series. The Orioles are capable of being weirdos who list out a bunch of TBDs and then just line up the guys anyone would have guessed they’d line up. This could turn out to be nothing.

Game 1: Monday, 8:40pm Eastern

• BAL starter: TBD
• COL starter: Tanner Gordon – 5.38 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 1.434 WHIP in 19 games (7 starts)

In the entirety of my life between my birth and the time I sat down to start writing this article, I have not once had occasion to contemplate the person of Tanner Gordon. I trust that he is a real major league player since he has a player page on Baseball Reference. Let’s learn about him together. He’s a 28-year-old righty who is in his first major league season; this is the first of those seasons where he had a positive bWAR.

Just about everything is bad on Gordon’s Statcast page except for his walk rate. Gordon has walked just 4.1% of batters faced this season. That’s pretty good, so much so that if you doubled his walk rate you’d still look at it and think that’s fine. Will the Orioles be able to do anything against this strike-thrower? Maybe! On the other hand, Gordon’s best pitch grades out as his changeup, so maybe he will end up destroying the Orioles as they flail around and look like they’ve never consulted a scouting report in their lives. We’re both picturing the exact same Colton Cowser swing right now.

Game 2: Tuesday, 8:40pm Eastern

• BAL starter: TBD
• COL starter: Gabriel Hughes – 6.61 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 1.448 WHIP in 10 games (9 starts)

Just process this dread right now: Hughes has yet to win a game as a major leaguer. The 25-year-old rookie was a first round pick by the Rockies four years ago and he’s steadily worked his way up to be thrown into the meat grinder that is the Colorado rotation, and here he is. He’s 0-6, he’s only pitched more than five innings three times, he’s never struck out more than seven batters in a game, and he just had a 10.03 ERA in five starts in the month of August.

I mention all of this because if you’re reading this, you probably know this is precisely the sort of guy against whom the Orioles will inexplicably do horribly. They just faced a parade of those pitchers when they played the Athletics and they did not do great against them overall even as they managed that sweep.

Game 3: Wednesday, 3:10pm Eastern

• BAL starter: TBD
• COL starter: Tomoyuki Sugano – 5.23 ERA, 5.45 FIP, 1.361 WHIP in 25 games

Hey, we know that guy! It’s a rough-looking ERA on the surface for Sugano. Don’t forget about the Coors Field effect, though. Sugano’s 5.23 ERA is good for a 93 ERA+, which is actually a bit better than the 86 ERA+ that he had with the Orioles a year ago. Batters are hitting .282/.320/.528 in 12 home starts for Sugano this season. The Orioles have to find a way to do this thing.

Shane Baz looks on Sugano with envy. Even with that ERA/FIP situation, Sugano has a 12-8 record for the season. Colorado lost four of his five starts in August, though. Sugano really struggled as the season went along last year, with an OPS allowed over 1.000 in four September starts. We’d all like to see the 2026 Orioles send him towards a similar late-season result.

**

What do you think is going to happen in this series? Will the Orioles keep their foot on the gas or will they flop on their faces now that they’ve gotten close again? Let us know in the comments below.

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The Los Angeles Angels own an abysmal 20-55 record against teams over .500, and things are unlikely to get any better against the New York Yankees (54%).

New York leads the majors in team ERA, and its strong pitching gives it a big edge over an ice-cold L.A. offense.

Let's break down my Yankees vs. Angels predictions and MLB picks for Monday, Aug. 31, with first pitch coming to you from Angel Stadium at 9:38 p.m. ET.

Who will win Yankees vs Angels today: Yankees (54%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The Los Angeles Angels are toothless at the plate. They rank dead last in wOBA vs. right-handed pitching in Aug., and their xwOBA is actually lower than the results they’ve garnered. 

Elmer Rodriguez should hold up early, and the New York Yankees have a strong bullpen to turn to when he departs.

Walbert Urena is an excellent pitcher but more vulnerable against left-handed hitters, and the Yankees have plenty of good ones to throw at him in Ben Rice, Luis Garcia Jr., and Cody Bellinger, among others.

Back the Yankees to 58%.

COVERS INTEL:The Angels rank 29th with 21 barrels against right-handed pitching in August, giving them no power to compensate for a putrid .290 OBP.

Yankees vs Angels Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (54%)

I love the Under here.

The Angels are hitting .214 against righties in Aug. and have produced very little power. Scoring runs is like pulling teeth, and it will only get more difficult as the game progresses.

It’s all or nothing for the Yankees at the dish. They rank 26th in average vs. righties this month but have produced because they sit seventh in ISO.

Urena’s 87th percentile ranking in barrel rate sets him up well to limit their power, and the Angels have a sneaky-good bullpen backing him up.

Play to 56%.

Yankees vs Angels home run prediction: Luis Garcia Jr. (16%)

Garcia Jr. is my favorite power source to target here. 

He has hit .341 with a .293 ISO and 15.2% barrel rate against Urena’s pitch mix over the last 25 games, leading the Yankees in all but the latter.

Urena’s walk rate is nearly double against lefties, indicating struggles with control. 

Garcia Jr. is a very difficult hitter to navigate if trailing in the count, and he’s also a free-swinger more likely to chase power on anything close than try to earn a free pass.

Yankees vs Angels weather

With temperatures in the mid 70s and slight wind blowing out, the impact on scoring should be neutral.

Yankees vs Angels odds

• Moneyline: Yankees 57% | Angels 44%
• Run line: Yankees -1.5 (44%) | Angels +1.5 (57%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (47%) | Under 8.5 (54%)

Yankees vs Angels trend

Los Angeles has hit the game total Under in 29 of its last 40 home games (+16.85 units, 38% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Angels.

How to watch Yankees vs Angels and game info

Yankees vs Angels latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The strange journey of the 2026 Orioles season continues, now with the team just one game back of .500 for the first time since the end of April. A whole lot of baseball has happened between now and then. A lot of that baseball was bad in May and June. Things have gone a bit better starting around mid-July, and now the Orioles have won five of their last six to keep themselves in a decent position.

In this week’s episode of the podcast, I’m trying not to get too excited about the Orioles having just swept the Athletics. After all, those were all ugly wins, and there are still concerns to be had about a big chunk of the lineup on a nightly basis, to say nothing else of other problems that are either ongoing or could flare up at any moment. Nothing is settled, except that with 25 games left, the Orioles have about a 25% chance to make it. That’s better than it looked like this season would go a few months ago.

I also go into the mailbag for some thoughts on the motivations behind trading Adley Rutschman. It’s easier to talk about now that close to a month has passed and the fresh feeling of shock has faded. Plus, y’know, he really hasn’t looked good yet for the Red Sox. I feel bad for him but I don’t feel bad for the Red Sox.

Check out the latest episode here:

If the above player isn’t displaying, view this article in Incognito Mode or check it out on the show’s page.

This is my weekly podcast about whatever is going on lately with the Orioles. If you enjoyed this episode, please make sure to subscribe. You can get the show on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you prefer to access your podcasts.

How are you feeling about the way things are going with the Orioles right now? Answers could make it into the mailbag section of a future episode of the podcast.

For the second time in as many appearances, San Diego Padres closer Mason Miller allowed a home run that changed the outcome of a game. Last week, he allowed a solo home run to Oneil Cruz which allowed the Pittsburgh Pirates to get a 1-0 win over the Padres. Miller allowed a two-run home run to Jonny DeLuca on Sunday which allowed the Tampa Bay Rays to tie the game in the ninth. The end result was a 5-4 extra-innings loss for San Diego, resulting in a three-game sweep at the hands of Tampa Bay.

Miller came into the game in the bottom of the ninth inning and allowed a single to Junior Caminero. That in and of itself was no big deal, the Padres had a two-run lead with their All-Star closer on the mound and after all, it was just a single. Miller bounced back to strikeout Liam Hicks and got Chandler Simpson to line out to put San Diego one out away from avoiding a sweep. DeLuca made the sweep a possibility with a fly ball to the left field corner that was actually caught by Samad Taylor before he crashed into the short outfield wall and the ball broke free from his glove and went over for a game-tying two-run home run. Miller struck out Jorge Mateo to end the inning one batter later, but the game was tied 3-3 and was heading to extra innings.

Bunting issues became prevalent yet again for the Padres in extra innings when Jake Cronenworth led off the top of the 10th inning with a failed bunt attempt that resulted in a pop out. The automatic runner Jase Bowen was then thrown out trying to steal third and Manny Machado struck out to end the inning, giving the Rays a chance to win in the bottom of the 10th.

Yuki Matsui continued his recent run of success and came up with a clutch scoreless inning to send the game to the 11th. Matsui struck out Cedric Mullins and then Mateo, the automatic runner stole third base. Matsui then struck out Taylor Walls for the second out of the inning. He walked Yandy Diaz to put runners on the corners but then got Jonathan Aranda to fly out to Jackson Merrill in center field to keep the game tied, 3-3.

In the top of the 11th, San Diego took advantage of a wild pitch, which allowed Manny Machado to advance to third base with no outs in the inning. Ty France brought him home on a sacrifice fly and the Padres took a 4-3 lead. Merrill and Xander Bogaerts each struck out to end the inning, but San Diego was in line for the second time in the game to win if they could prevent Tampa Bay from scoring in the bottom of the inning.

David Morgan replaced Matsui and struck out Caminero to start the bottom of the 11th. He then allowed a single to Liam Hicks to put runners on the corners with one out. Kenny Piper came in the run for Hicks and promptly stole second base to put two Rays in scoring position. Morgan intentionally walked Simpson to load the bases, but then a fielding error on a ground ball to Bogaerts on the turf in front of shortstop allowed the tying run to score and keep the bases loaded. With the game tied 4-4, Morgan allowed Mateo to hit a line drive to left field, which got over the head of Taylor to give the Padres their third consecutive loss, the second of the series where they had the lead late in the game. It would not have made a difference if Taylor were to have caught the liner rather than have it go over his head, the runner from third would have been able to tag up on the play and score.

San Diego will lick its wounds from a disappointing weekend in Tampa Bay as the Padres head to Cincinnati to take on the Reds today at 3:40 p.m.

Padres News:

• Padres right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. and manager Craig Stammen were ejected from the series finale with the Rays after Tatis was called out for running out of the baseline. It was a call the certainty impacted the game and resulted in the second career ejection for Tatis.

• Nick Pivetta looked dominant in his latest rehab start for the El Paso Chihuahuas in Oklahoma City.

• Luis Rengifo and Gavin Sheets were sent to the IL before the final game against the Rays. Samad Taylor and Sung-Mun Song were called up to the big-league club.

Baseball News:

• Pete Crow-Armstrong stays hot but cannot lead the Chicago Cubs to a win over the Cincinnati Reds.

• The New York Yankees took the season series over the Boston Red Sox with a blowout win.

• The Atlanta Braves walked off the Colorado Rockies to win their seventh in a row.

• The Los Angeles Dodgers got a series win over the Detroit Tigers.

• Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler delivered a 5-2 win over the Los Angeles Angels.

• Curacao won the Little League World Series title.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks (47%) have been one of the most successful home teams in the majors, winning 40 of 69 games at home.

My Phillies vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks expect their home cooking to continue in tonight's series opener on Aug. 31.

First pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field.

Who will win Phillies vs Diamondbacks today: Diamondbacks (47%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Aaron Nola’s improved results over the past six starts coincide with a steep decrease in opponent quality. 

Each team he faced is sub .500 and on the outside of the playoff picture. He has faced only three playoff teams since June 6, and they've scored 13 runs over just 14 1/3 innings.

The Arizona Diamondbacks represent a step up in class from what Nola has seen of late. They’re nearly 10 games over .500 and sit ninth in xwOBA vs. righties this month.

They should provide Brandon Pfaadt enough support to pull off the upset. Play to 51%.

COVERS INTEL:Pfaadt has allowed 0.82 HR/9 at home. His strong power suppression will be very useful against a Phillies squad sitting 11th in homers.

Phillies vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (53%)

Pfaadt has gotten touched up the last couple of starts, but his underlying profile remains very strong.

He’s allowed hard contact just 27.3% of the time over the past 30 days. He has also posted a 4.3% barrel rate, both of which rank him second among today’s starting pitchers.

His ability to limit quality contact will serve him well against a powerful Philadelphia Phillies lineup. While Nola has benefited from a soft schedule, he has taken full advantage with a 3.14 SIERA in his past five starts.

The pitching should be good, making the Under an appealing buy to 55%.

Phillies vs Diamondbacks home run prediction: Corbin Carroll (16%)

Nola has allowed more power to lefties than righties, and Corbin Carroll is well equipped to do damage against what he throws.

Nola relies most heavily on the knuckle curve, also throwing fastballs and changeups at a healthy rate.

Carroll has a .300 ISO and 50% hard-hit rate against the knuckle curve — albeit over a small sample — and ISOs above .230 facing the other two pitches.

Carroll’s average exit velocity and barrel rate against Nola’s mix have also risen over his last 25 at-bats.

Phillies vs Diamondbacks weather

Game will be played indoors.

Phillies vs Diamondbacks odds

• Moneyline: Phillies 54% | Diamondbacks 47%
• Run line: Phillies -1.5 (40%) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (61%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (48%) | Under 8.5 (53%)

Phillies vs Diamondbacks trend

Arizona has hit the moneyline in 27 of the last 45 games (+11.40 units, 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Diamondbacks.

How to watch Phillies vs Diamondbacks and game info

Phillies vs Diamondbacks latest injuries

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The dominant Tampa Bay Rays lineup draws a dream spot against a struggling Robert Stock when the New York Mets visit Tropicana Field, with first pitch set for 6:40 p.m. ET

Tampa is a heavy favorite at a 62% implied probability on the moneyline, and the pitching mismatch shapes my Mets vs. Rays predictions.

Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, Aug. 31.

Who will win Mets vs Rays today: Rays -1.5 (43%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Robert Stock gives the Tampa Bay Rays a clear path to winning by multiple runs, and at 43%, I prefer the Rays run line to paying 62% on the moneyline. Stock has been dreadful this season, carrying a 7.40 ERA while opponents hit .307 against him.

His 4.90 xERA suggests he’s pitched a bit better than that ugly number, but even the kinder mark leaves a wide gap behind a locked-in Ian Seymour and a Tampa Bay staff that has been dominant lately.

If Seymour and the bullpen keep the New York Mets around two or three runs, Stock hands the Rays a clean path to the 5-2 or 6-3 result we need. 

I’d play Tampa Bay -1.5 to 46%.

COVERS INTEL:  Ian Seymour has settled into a groove, posting a 3.20 ERA with 49 strikeouts across 39 1/3 innings over his last seven appearances.

Mets vs Rays Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (55%)

The Under at 8.5 is the play, built on the Rays’ pitching edge and a Mets offense that hasn’t done enough lately. New York is batting just .242 with 8.2 hits per game over its last 10, and while it has shown some pop, it hasn’t strung together the sustained scoring a big number requires.

The other side of the handicap is Tampa Bay’s own bats, which have cooled. The Rays are hitting .234 with a .347 slugging and 7.7 hits per game over their last 10, so something like five or six Rays runs is more likely than an eight-run outburst.

The market context is useful, too. The broader market has this game at 8.0 runs, so the 8.5 we’re getting is a meaningful extra half-run, especially when the likeliest Tampa Bay-winning scores are 5-2, 5-3, or 6-2.

I’d play the Under to 57%. At 8.0, I’d pass.

Mets vs Rays home run prediction: Junior Caminero (24%)

Junior Caminero hit his 37th home run on Sunday — pushing his hitting streak to 13 games — and he’s been Tampa Bay’s hottest bat, hitting .378 over his last 10 games. 

His contact profile backs the power, headlined by a 93.0 mph average exit velocity and a 13.1% barrel rate. Caminero can attack Stock’s cutter, four-seamer, and sinker, which make up roughly 79% of his arsenal.

At 24%, we’re paying for Caminero’s status as Tampa Bay’s premier power threat, but the matchup justifies making him the selection over a longer shot.

I’d play Caminero to 26% for a quarter unit.

Mets vs Rays weather

Tropicana Field is a fixed-dome ballpark, so weather is a non-factor tonight. 

Mets vs Rays odds

• Moneyline: Mets 39% | Rays 62%
• Run line: Mets +1.5 (56%) | Rays -1.5 (43%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (46%) | Under 8.5 (55%)

Mets vs Rays trend

Tampa Bay’s pitching staff owns a 2.80 ERA over its last 10 games, a run of dominance that backs both the Rays run line and the Under. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Rays.

How to watch Mets vs Rays and game info

Mets vs Rays latest injuries

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With their 8-5 win over the Athletics on Sunday afternoon, the Orioles improved to just one game under .500 for the first time since April 30. The four months in between have included a tumble down the standings, a roster sell-off, and now a renaissance on the field. It remains to be seen whether the Orioles can come all the way back, earn themselves a winning record, and eventually a spot in the playoffs. But regardless, their recent form has at least given us a glimpse of what they were supposed to be all summer long.

Back at the end of June, the Orioles were 39-48, fives games back of the final wild card spot in the American League. They needed to leapfrog five teams in order to get back into a playoff position.

Since then, the team is 29-21, outscoring opponents by 20 runs in total, and closing the gap in the wild card race to just one game. Nine of the 25 games left on their schedule will come against the Guardians and Blue Jays, the two teams closest to them in the standings, placing the Orioles firmly in control of their own fate. That alone is a surprising accomplishment given where they once sat in the junior circuit hierarchy.

Just about every aspect of this Orioles team has turned around in the last two months, starting with the lineup.

The team’s 104 wRC+ in that time is sixth in MLB, which has been helped by the 68 home runs (sixth in MLB) they have hit. Pete Alonso has been one of the sport’s best hitters, leading the team with a 168 wRC+ and 13 home runs. Coby Mayo may have turned the corner, boasting a 147 wRC+ with nine home runs. And Christian Encarnacion-Strand has been a lifesaver with his 122 wRC+ and seven homers. Slight improvements from Gunnar Henderson (103 wRC+) and Colton Cowser (101 wRC+) have also helped, as has Craig Albernaz’s openness to switching up his lineup with more regularity in recent weeks. The offense is more dynamic, less predictable, and generally more productive.

Looking at August alone, some of the individual performances have been even more impressive. Alonso (193 wRC+), Cowser (148 wRC+), Mayo (143 wRC+), and Henderson (140 wRC+) have been on fire, as has Dylan Beavers (128 wRC+). But the overall offense has been slightly worse (101 wRC+) due to dips in form from Encarnacion-Strand and Jackson Holliday, among others.

The 2026 Orioles were built with an expectation that the offense would carry the load most days. That has not come to fruition, not even with their improved recent play. But, if Alonso and Henderson continue to play up to their expected level, Mayo, Cowser, and Encarnacion-Strand can be quality depth, and the likes of Holliday, Beavers, Samuel Basallo, and Blaze Alexander can rediscover some of their earlier form, then this is going to be a lineup that is tough to beat the next four weeks.

Meanwhile, the pitching staff is also rounding into form, both in the rotation and the bullpen.

Since the start of July, Orioles starting pitchers are 12th in MLB in fWAR (4.3), 18th in ERA (4.18), 13th in FIP (3.97), and ninth in xFIP (3.84). Those numbers are not incredible, but they are competent. That’s exactly what a wild card hopeful needs down the stretch.

More crucially, if the Orioles are going to be a playoff team, is that they have three or four starting arms that you feel comfortable turning to for at least five innings a pop. That seems to be the case right now. Shane Baz (2.60 FIP since July 1), Trevor Rogers (3.36 FIP), and Kyle Bradish (3.92 FIP) each have Cy Young upside that they have flashed on occasion. Not to be forgotten, Brandon Young (3.72 ERA since July 1) consistently turns in solid outings, and is tied for the team lead in wins.

There are certainly better rotations out there, including some of the teams that the Orioles will be battling for a playoff spot down the stretch. But this team’s depth in the starting staff is enviable and puts them in position to be a tough out should they get to the playoffs.

What could act as a multiplier for the rotation is their support staff in the bullpen. Somehow, the Orioles have built out one of the hottest relief groups in baseball. Since the start of July, they rank in the top four of MLB in ERA (3.10), xERA (3.13), and FIP (3.50). The key to their success has been keeping the ball in the park. Their 0.59 home run per nine inning rate is the best in MLB since July 1.

It’s an unconventional group. With both Ryan Helsley and Félix Bautista on the mend, as well as the trading away of Tyler Wells in the beginning of August, the Orioles lack an obvious closer. Andrew Kittredge has stepped into the role most often, but Cam Sanders, Rico Garcia, Yennier Cano, Grant Wolfram, and Alex Hoppe each have at least one save in recent weeks.

A club that can throw so many different arms at you in late innings can be a tough one to match up against. Opposing teams can’t be sure of which reliever they will get in a given scenario. Albernaz has committed to riding the hot hand and finding favorable matchups. Lately that has meant an outsized role for someone like Hoppe or the recently-recalled Anthony Nunez, but nothing is written in stone.

The potential returns of Helsley and Bautista add another wrinkle. Should they be deemed ready, it won’t necessarily feel right for the Orioles to anoint either one as the unquestioned ninth inning arm. But being able to turn to two proven, veteran closers late in games isn’t something that many other bullpens have the option of doing.

The Orioles still have a lot of work to do. They have dug themselves quite a hole, and there is no guarantee that they will successfully dig all the way out it. But their turnaround is not confined to this recent 7-2 stretch that has seen them win series against the Rays, Cardinals, and now Athletics. It goes back two months, seen them survive a disappointing trade deadline, and come out on the other side with a little more swagger and the chance to right all of the wrongs they have dealt with throughout the regular season. You can’t ask for much more from a season that, at one point, seemed like it was headed off a cliff. Instead, these Orioles will be playing meaningful baseball deep into September at least.