BALTIMORE, MD - MAY 26: Taylor Ward #3 of the Baltimore Orioles warms up against the Tampa Bay Rays during the sixth inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on May 26, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) | Getty Images
I definitely can recall a time, back in the cooler days of spring, when I used to forget that Taylor Ward was in the lineup. Acquired last November for Grayson Rodriguez to Anaheim, I was pretty uninterested in Taylor Ward, and I felt bad for Rodriguez. In general, the trade felt to me hasty, a little wasteful, and cruel to a homegrown arm.
Well, that take has aged pretty badly, because Ward has quietly become a reliable leadoff man, and one of the most interesting hitters on the team. (If you were wondering about Rodriguez, by the way, here.) The moral: I guess we should read the transaction wire more carefully.
The raw numbers are solid without being flashy, brought down of late by an 0-for-14 skid. But a batting average hovering around .252 with an OBP north of .400, MLB-Top 3 walk totals, and a thoughtful approach at the plate has been a genuine asset at the top of a lineup that’s sorely lacked in consistency. In early May he set an O’s record with 40 walks through his first 40 games (topping the previous mark of 39 set by Albert Belle). The power, though, has been nearly absent—or at least diminished: after posting a career-high 36 home runs with the Angels a year ago, Ward has cleared the wall only twice this season. The homers have turned into doubles: 16, tied for fourth in the AL.
What’s changed for Ward at the plate?
Discipline metrics tell much of the story. The headlining number is Ward’s walk rate: 19.2%, a career high by a wide margin, and third among all 163 qualifying hitters in baseball, trailing only Mike Trout and the Athletics’ Nick Kurtz. A walk rate that extreme does not happen by accident, and the underlying swing data reveal a player who has fundamentally remade his approach.
Ward’s Swing% sits at 31.1%, a career low, meaning he is offering at far fewer pitches than at any point in his career. His O-Swing% (swings at pitches outside the zone) is 12%, the only time in nine seasons it has not exceeded 20%. His Z-Swing% (swings at pitches inside the zone) has fallen to 50.8%, another career low. In other words, Ward is not even chasing good pitches unless they are precisely what he is looking for. And when he does pull the trigger on pitches in the zone? He is making contact at a 90.8% clip — a career best.
The profile that emerges is of a hitter who is extraordinarily choosy but, when he has identified the pitch he wants, is not missing it. And he’s not selling out for power, either. Alongside a strikeout rate near its career low, his launch angle is at a career low, too, and his average exit velocity is unspectacular. Ward is taking walks. Or he’s finding the gap. He’s not swinging for the fences.
What explains the transformation? The change is intentional, as you’d guess. Ward himself cites three factors: offseason mechanical work to produce a line-drive approach, more intensive pregame prep on how pitchers plan to nibble outside the zone, and the new Automated Ball-Strike challenge system, which he says has encouraged umpires to stay closer to the true zone all season. Let’s dwell on that last point for a second.
The ABS system, new in 2026, uses Hawk-Eye cameras and a slightly hitter-friendly strike zone calibrated to each player’s height. One big implication is that pitches that clip the outer edge at the front of the plate and then dive out of the zone are no longer called strikes. And new hitting coach Dustin Lind has a documented track record of reducing chase rates wherever he has worked: he helped the Giants drop their chase rate from 31.2% to 24.2% between 2019 and 2021, and brought a similar philosophy to the Phillies in 2024.
One further downstream effect of Ward’s extreme selectivity is that it forces pitchers to throw strikes. When a hitter lays off breaking balls and borderline pitches with Ward’s consistency, opposing pitchers face an uncomfortable choice — walk him or attack him with fastballs. This season, fastballs have constituted 59.3% of the pitches Ward has seen, and he is hitting .309 against them. Ward’s choosiness, in other words, is producing, not just walks, but also an advantageous pitch mix. He is laying off the curveball, getting the heater, and doing something productive with it. (Now, can Colton Cowser do the same?)
So there you have it: Taylor Ward, a player we were all mostly uninterested in, showed up to town in his ninth big-league season, at age 32, with a brand-new skill set. Granted, he arrived in Baltimore with a reputation for power, and that power is somewhat dormant, unless you really like doubles. (For the record, I do like doubles.) Ward may or may not be a household name in Birdland, but he is on this team—and, in fact, batting leadoff most nights—and he has been one of the most quietly excellent hitters in the American League all season. Time to start paying attention.
Jun 3, 2026; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Texas Rangers third baseman Josh Jung (6) is congratulated by first base coach Travis Jankowski (96) after hitting a one run single against the St. Louis Cardinals during the third inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images | Jeff Curry-Imagn Images
In the top of the seventh inning Thursday night at Wrigley Field, I was sitting around thinking sad thoughts, after Shōta Imanaga had given up two more home runs, totaling four long balls allowed on the evening, and the Cubs trailed the Athletics 6-1. At that point — and come on, you were thinking this too — it felt like it might as well have been 60-1, the way the Cubs have been hitting recently.
Well. All of us were wrong as the Cubs put together an almost-unbelievable ninth-inning rally, coming from three runs down in the ninth for the first time since David Bote’s ultimate grand slam in 2018. The 7-6 win over the A’s ended a three-game losing streak, but perhaps more importantly, might give this team the boost they really need after a long, long stretch of losing baseball.
Let’s begin at the beginning.
Imanaga breezed through the first two innings. Meanwhile, the Cubs were adding to their RISP frustration. Pete Crow-Armstrong was hit by a pitch and stole second. All that led to was going 0-for-3 with RISP, three strikeouts with a Michael Busch walk in the middle. Then Moisés Ballesteros singled with one out in the second, but Dansby Swanson hit into a double play.
This is going swimmingly well, right?
With two out in the fourth, A’s DH Shea Langeliers hit a ball that bounced in and out of the right-field basket for a home run (confirmed on review). Okay, the wind’s blowing out and that one just barely made it, not totally Shōta’s fault. Meanwhile, the Cubs went down 1-2-3 in the third, fourth and fifth.
The A’s plated another run in the sixth on a one-out walk and double.
You could tell right away that PCA had no idea where that ball was. He didn’t lose it in the lights — right around that time was dusk, not quite sunset, and it’s really hard to see the ball against that kind of sky. I lost track of it too — until it landed about 70 feet behind PCA near the warning track. Langeliers circled the bases for a two-run inside-the-park home run, making it 4-0.
That led to this fun fact. Well, not so fun for the Cubs, but interesting regardless (Bluesky link):
It’s 4-0 now and it felt like 40-0, the way the Cubs were hitting (one hit over the first five innings).
Okay, 4-1 in the sixth gives the Cubs a sign of life.
Craig Counsell allowed Imanaga to start the seventh. This kind of made sense as the first hitter was left-handed, Tyler Soderstrom. Whoops, Soderstrom goes deep. Surely Counsell will take Shōta out now, with switch-hitter Jonah Heim due up? Nope, Imanaga stays in. Heim also goes deep (this from a guy who came into the game batting .194/.263/.361) and now it’s 6-1, which is where we came in, with me thinking those sad thoughts.
Trent Thornton, who’s been solid out of the pen since being recalled, did issue a couple of walks and gave up a hit after relieving Imanaga, but got out of the inning with a foul popup by Langeliers.
The 446-foot homer, Happ’s team-leading 14th, was the longest by any Cub so far this year (previously: 444 feet by PCA last Saturday in St. Louis).
More on the two Cubs homers from BCB’s JohnW53:
The Cubs’ two home runs tonight, coming after two on Tuesday, gave them back-to-back games with multiple homers for the first time in 16 games, since May 15-16 on the South Side vs. the White Sox.
Those were their first in 20 games, since five in a row, April 21-25 (first three at home vs. Phillies, last two at Los Angeles vs. Dodgers).
So, the Cubs have hit multiple homers in back-to-back games twice in their last 37 games. And had lost all of the back-to-back games — until this one.
Okay, it’s 6-3. This… might be doable.
Thornton and Ryan Rolison got through the eighth 1-2-3, but the Cubs also went down in order in the bottom of the inning. Rolison, who’s also been a useful reliever this year, retired the A’s 1-2-3 in the ninth.
Three runs down. Three outs left. A difficult task.
That came really close to ending the game, but neither A’s middle infielder could handle Ballesteros’ grounder. Now it’s 6-5. One run down, one out still remaining, the tying run on first now represented by Kevin Alcántara, who ran for Ballesteros.
Seiya Suzuki, who was given a break from starting in this game, batted for DH Pedro Ramirez. Suzuki singled, with Alcántara stopping at second. Now the tying run is in scoring position.
That brought up Dansby Swanson, who had looked pretty bad at the plate in this game, with a fly out, strikeout and ground out.
Really happy for Swanson, who has needed something to get him back on track. Maybe this hit will start something good for him. Suzuki took third on Swanson’s hit, the winning run 90 feet away, still with two out.
PCA, who’d had an, um, interesting night with his misplay in the field and a home run, had the crowd behind him, loudly chanting his name.
It was, as noted above, the first Cubs walk-off win down three in the ninth in nearly eight years, since the famous Bote grand slam. In some ways this one was more amazing, since they did it without a home run — two doubles and five singles. After going 0-for-3 in the first inning with RISP, the Cubs were 6-for-7 with RISP the rest of the game — Happ’s home run and five of the seven hits in the ninth. Don’t forget to give credit to Thornton and Rolison for keeping the A’s at six runs, allowing the hitters to make this comeback.
Will this give the Cubs any “momentum”? I put that in quotes because the old saying is, “Momentum is only as good as your next day’s starting pitcher.” But if the Cubs do go on a run, and somehow claw back to the top of the NL Central, I think we can look back at this game as where it all started.
The Cubs open a three-game series against the San Francisco Giants Friday afternoon at Wrigley Field. The Giants just split a four-game set against the Brewers, losing one game 16-2 and winning another 12-9. Let’s hope the Giants left all their offense in Milwaukee. Edward Cabrera will be activated from the injured list to start Friday for the Cubs. Robbie Ray will go for San Francisco. Game time is 1:20 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network (and MLB Network outside the Cubs and Giants market territories).
Felix Reyes of the Lehigh Valley IronPigs hits the ball during a Minor League Baseball game at Coca-Cola Park in Allentown, United States, on May 23, 2026. (Photo by Dan Squicciarini/NurPhoto via Getty Images) | NurPhoto via Getty Images
Felix Reyes was a surprise call-up back in early May and made a strong first impression. He homered off of Chris Sale in his first at-bat, but he couldn’t carry that momentum forward, as he hit just .158 with a paltry .421 OPS through 38 MLB plate appearances across 12 games.
Reyes was sent back to Triple-A on May 19th and has been on fire ever since. As of June 2nd, Reyes is hitting .321 with nine extra-base hits including six home runs across 13 games at Lehigh Valley since his demotion. He’s stuck out 10 times and has walked five times across 62 plate appearances.
Despite this impressive production, Reyes’ short time in the Majors and his status as a non-highly touted prospect makes it appear likely that he is your typical AAAA player, meaning a player too good for Triple-A and not good enough for the Majors. It may be too early to declare that definitively, but it is certainly trending that way.
But the Phillies are in need from some offense somewhere, especially in one of Reyes’ positions. Adolis Garcia has been abysmal at the plate this season, particularly in the month of May. He hit .125 in the month with a miniscule .400 OPS and a gigantic 37.6% strikeout rate. It’s probably too early for the Phillies to consider releasing Garcia, and his stellar defense in right field does carry some weight, but it’s at least time to consider something else.
When Reyes was first up, he was primarily used as a platoon option and therefore spent most of his time on the bench. It’s hard for anyone to get into a rhythm that way, but it’s especially difficult for someone getting their first taste of MLB pitching. That doesn’t mean that more regular at-bats will turn Reyes into a serviceable hitter, but it’s at least something the Phillies haven’t tried yet. If he were to be recalled again, perhaps he could get some more runway as the starting left fielder while Garcia receives playing time either platooning with Brandon Marsh with Marsh starting in right when Reyes plays or platooning with Justin Crawford with Marsh starting in center.
This is admittedly just a theory, as the Phillies have not publicly expressed any desire to cut back on Garcia’s playing time. But maybe they should start. Reyes is not a permanent solution by any means, but maybe they could catch lightning in a bottle for a few weeks. It may seem desperate, but the Phillies have a lot of questions offensively and not many answers.
So, is it time for the Phillies to try Felix Reyes again?
Apr 30, 2026; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Detroit Tigers pitcher Framber Valdez (59) pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
Like so much of the Detroit Tigers’ 2026 season, Framber Valdez hasn’t exactly worked out as planned. Signed to a backloaded 3 year, $115M deal with an opt out after 2027, Valdez was supposed to stabilize a rotation that had Reese Olson injured and Jack Flaherty a total wildcard coming into the season. More importantly, in the face of Casey Mize’s and Tarik Skubal’s upcoming free agency, Valdez was meant to anchor the 2027 rotation while reinforcements like Troy Melton and – eventually – Jackson Jobe established themselves in the majors.
So far, Valdez has been more decent than great, and his struggles while Skubal and Mize have been injured of late have left the rotation without a dominant arm. His 4.39 ERA is his worst since he established himself as a capable postseason arm back in 2020, and his 18.3% strikeout rate is outright the lowest of his career. He’s not even compiling innings, as his 5.6 IP/game is his lowest since he joined the rotation full time. This is a meaningfully reduced version of Valdez at probably the most inopportune time.
What’s going wrong is pretty obvious, in part because Valdez is a very simple pitcher whose gameplan has never been a secret. He bullies opposing hitters with a bowling ball sinker, racks up league high groundball rates, strikes out about an average number, and is OK walking a few too many hitters or giving up some hard contact because all of those groundballs means a lot of double plays and quick innings. As they say, it’s hard to slug on the ground.
This year, though, that groundball rate is only 44%, which isn’t low in a league-wide context, but it’s very low when groundballs are the only way you’ve succeeded in 7 years as a major league pitcher. It’s especially low when all those hard groundballs get exchanged into hard fly balls, and well, now we know why 2026 Valdez has his highest HR/9 of the 2020s despite exchanging Minute Maid/Daikin for Comerica.
Why his groundball rate has dropped seems straightforward enough. Valdez is isn’t getting his sinker down enough. Seriously, here’s heatmaps of his 2022 sinker (which was, for my money, his best season) and his 2026 sinker. See how that cloud around the bottom of the zone and a bit below goes away in 2026 in the image on the right? That’s bad. Sinkers over the middle can work, but only if the batter thinks they’ll be at the bottom of the zone. Right now, Valdez isn’t giving hitters enough of a reason to worry about that sinker on the bottom rail, so they’re teeing off on the elevated ones.
That’s the bad news, obviously. Valdez is throwing a ton more hittable sinkers. The good news, however, is that other than the general location being a bit up, nothing’s all that different about the sinker. Valdez still throws the pitch about 50% of the time, gets about 25 inches of drop, and his average velocity is still exactly 93.9 mph. It isn’t working as well, but the pitch itself isn’t fundamentally broken. In theory, setting your sights 6 inchers lower could get the whole operation back on track.
The issue doesn’t appear to be his catchers either. He’s gotten more balls called strikes at the bottom of the zone than the reverse, and while Jake Rogers, who usually catches Valdez, grades out a -1 framing runs at the bottom of the zone, he doesn’t appear to be costing Valdez strikes specifically.
Of course, I’d be remiss to mention the edges of the strike zone and leave ABS out of the equation. Is a pitcher like Valdez, who generally relies on that bottom rail, getting burned by ABS?
The answer is seemingly a yes, but likely not how you expect. So far, Valdez isn’t a victim of challenges. Batters have only made 3 challenges against Valdez this year, and only one was overturned from a strike to a ball. If ABS is impacting Valdez, it isn’t because a hitters are challenging his fringe strikes and forcing him up in the zone. But ABS resulted in two major changes to how the strike zone works. One was by introducing challenges. Less advertised is that ABS also changed the zone that umpires are supposed to call.
By standardizing the minimum height, ABS made the zone smaller and raised the bottom higher off the ground. This is how ABS impacts Valdez, not challenges. Since the dimensions of last year’s strike zone are still remembered, sites like FanGraphs offer statistics about both the current and ‘Legacy’ strike zone. In 2026, 48.4% of Valdez’ pitches have been in the 2026 zone, but 50.4% would have been in the ‘Legacy’ zone. That means 2% of his pitches used to be strikes and now aren’t, and I have to imagine – I unfortunately don’t have the tools to prove this right now – that the majority are sinkers down in the zone.
So, we have a groundball, sinker pitcher whose sinker is doing all the same things, but not working how it should. And we have a strike zone that’s slightly smaller, especially at the bottom of the zone where Valdez needs it most. Put those together and we go from Framber Valdez: Borderline Ace to Framber Valdez: Just OK, which is not what Detroit invested in. To get back on track, he’ll have to adapt to this new zone and start pounding the real bottom rail again.
Head to NBC and Peacock this Sunday, June 7, for an exciting day of MLB coverage. First, at 3:00 PM ET, the Washington Nationals take on the Arizona Diamondbacks in an MLBSunday Leadoff matchup on Peacock. Later, at 8:00 PM ET, the San Francisco Giants face the Chicago Cubs on Sunday Night Baseball. See below for additional information on how to stream both games.
The Washington Nationals have had six straight losing seasons since winning the 2019 World Series. The organization made major changes to its front office this offseason, hiring manager Blake Butera, President of Baseball Operations Paul Toboni, and new hitting coach Matt Borgschulte, along with his two assistants, Andrew Aydt and Shawn O’Malley. The Nationals look to establish a new foundation for sustained success in 2026.
The Diamondbacks have missed the playoffs in the last two seasons and look to reach the postseason for the first time since losing the World Series to the Rangers in 2023.
Former Washington infielder Kevin Frandsen, five-time All-Star outfielder Luis Gonzalez, and reporter Caroline Pineda will join play-by-play voice Dave Flemming on this week’s MLB Sunday Leadoff announce team.
How to watch the Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks:
MLB Sunday Leadoff is a weekly Major League Baseball showcase featuring live Sunday daytime games. It highlights marquee matchups throughout the regular season and streams primarily on Peacock, with some games also airing across NBC Sports and NBC.
MLB Sunday Night Baseball is a weekly primetime Major League Baseball showcase, featuring marquee matchups each Sunday night during the regular season. The games air on NBC and Peacock and anchor NBC Sports’ Sunday night programming lineup.
On Sunday, July 5, all 15 MLB games will be presented nationally across Peacock and NBC as part of a special all-day “Star-Spangled Sunday” showcase.
NBC Sports will also stream one out-of-market game each day of the 2026 MLB season nationally on Peacock. Telemundo Deportes will present all NBCUniversal-produced MLB games in Spanish, with Universo televising all games broadcast on NBC.
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Judge missed the three-game set against the Guardians this week and the offense was anemic, to say the least. They scored 10 runs in the series, and only two in the finale to salvage a game.
Against the Red Sox, the Yanks may not need so many runs against a struggling Boston team, but they will have to score enough against some notable names.
After Sonny Gray on Friday, the Red Sox will deploy Ranger Suarez and Connelly Early to round out the weekend series.
Rice rising
In Judge's absence, Ben Rice is the clear best hitter in the lineup. While it may not be fair to the youngster, the Yankees will need Rice to come up big in this series.
It'll be a tall task for Rice as he'll go up against Suarez and Early, a couple of tough southpaws, but Rice is hitting .306 against left-handers with five home runs this season.
Rice had a seven-game hitting streak going before it was snapped Thursday.
Can Schlittler bounce back?
Schlittler is one of the frontrunners for the AL Cy Young, but he's coming off his worst start of the season.
Against the Guardians, Schlittler allowed five runs (four earned) in the loss. Not to beat a dead horse, but if Judge is not going to be in the lineup, the formidable starting pitching needs to step up alongside the other hitters.
Jun 2, 2026; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees pitcher Cam Schlittler (31) delivers a pitch during the second inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Yankee Stadium. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
Schlittler has two career starts against the Red Sox. He allowed one run in eight innings in Boston in late April this year and also faced them in his coming out party last October, when he pitched eight shutout innings while striking out 12 batters in the Wild Card Series.
Will Schlittler continue to dominate his childhood team?
Getting to Early....early
On the opposite side of that game in the Wild Card Series was young Connelly Early.
The talented southpaw has two career starts against the Yanks, the aforementioned playoff game and back on April 21 in Boston. In the Wild Card Series, Early allowed four runs in the loss but looked impressive, matching Schlittler's zeroes with three scoreless before Boston's defense betrayed them in a four-run fourth inning that cost them the season.
In April, Early was effective, allowing three runs across 5.1 innings while walking three and striking out four.
Against the current Yankees lineup, Jazz Chisholm Jr. has the most success against Early. He's 2-for-4 against Early, and the only Yankee to have multiple hits against the 24-year-old.
AL East scoreboard watching
Despite their best efforts this week, the Yankees made up ground on the Rays.
Although they went 1-2 against the Guardians, the Rays were swept by the Tigers and Tampa's hold on the AL East sits at a half game heading into play Friday.
Tampa is 2-8 over its last 10 games and will take on the Marlins in Miami this weekend. If the Yankees take care of business, they can find themselves in first place by the end of play on Sunday.
Predictions
Who will the MVP of the series be?
Ben Rice
The young slugger continues his tear.
Which Yankees pitcher will have the best start?
Cam Schlittler
Schlittler seemingly pitches his best against Boston.
Which Red Sox player will be a thorn in the Yankees' side?
Willson Contreras
Contreras is having one of the best seasons of his long MLB career. He enters play Friday with 12 home runs and is hitting close to .300.
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - JUNE 14: Boston Red Sox mascot Wally the Green Monster holds up a sign after a game against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park on June 14, 2025 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Brian Fluharty/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Another series at home, another series loss.
Now the Red Sox travel for six games against the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays, only the two best teams in the American League. Starting in the Bronx. No sweat.
Since sweeping Boston, the Yankees have gone 21-18. Boston meanwhile has gone 17-18. That initial 10-17 start continues to haunt the Red Sox. As a reminder of those Yankees games, while the sweep sure hurt it wasn’t actually that bad, all things considered. The three games were losses of 4-0, 4-1 and 4-2. You’d hope the offense now might have made those more competitive. Although they were still played at Fenway, so perhaps not. But, thankfully, this is a road series for the Red Sox.
Sonny Gray has gone 6.0 innings while allowing exactly 1 run in three of his last four starts. The one exception was his last start against the Minnesota Twins. The veteran didn’t face the Yankees the first meeting this season but did face them once in 2025 and gave up 6 runs in 5.0 innings. Ryan Weathers, a southpaw, missed Boston in Fenway Park and has been a solid contributor for New York. He hasn’t tossed fewer than 5.0 innings in any start since April 4th. He’s coming off a 5-run, 6.2 inning outing against the Athletics. He struck out 10 for the second time this season.
Ranger Suarez had been on a roll entering May but has been in a funk since then. His last five starts have lasted 4.0, 5.1, 4.1, 5.0, and 5.0 innings. He did strike out 10 Guardians though, so maybe he’s getting back on track. His start against the Yankees in Fenway Park was forgettable. Will Warren has been on a roll for the last month since a 4.0 inning, 6-run outing against the Texas Rangers.
The matchup of the two promising young pitchers is saved for last. Connelly Early didn’t have his best stuff against the Baltimore Orioles last time out but did still settle down enough to last 5.1 innings. The 4 runs he allowed early were enough for Baltimore to cruise to victory. Early faced New York in April and, of course, last October. He allowed 3 runs in 5.1 in that meeting in 2026 and the Yankees would win 4-0. The Sox have scored at least 2 runs in his other 11 starts. The Guardians figured out something against Cam Schlittler, knocking him around for 5 runs (4 earned) in 4.1 innings. Hopefully the Sox advance team can follow whatever Cleveland was doing.
Ben Rice has 17 home runs, tied with Aaron Judge. And, guess what? Aaron Judge is hurt. Here’s your 4-6 weeks at least to gain some ground, Red Sox!
Trent Grisham is hitting just .206/.328/.371 after his big 2025.
Giancarlo Stanton is still on the IL. He went on the IL 2 days after playing Boston. Not having him in the lineup is a win.
Probable Pitching Matchups
Friday, June 5: Sonny Gray (3.06 ERA / 3.52 FIP) vs. Ryan Weathers (3.52 ERA / 3.88 FIP)
Saturday, June 6: Ranger Suarez (3.38 ERA / 3.12FIP) vs. Will Warren (3.22 ERA / 3.27 FIP)
Sunday, June 7: Connelly Early (3.26 ERA / 4.62 FIP) vs. Cam Schlittler (1.99 ERA / 4.85 FIP)
I make no bones about the fact that “Major League” is probably my favorite baseball movie. Half of my fantasy baseball teams have the name “Jobu’s Rum.” There are other good ones to be sure. “The Natural” is a good one. “Bull Durham” is a classic. “Eight Men Out” is another one. There are probably more including “Field of Dreams” that get you in a soft spot, but Major League has so many lines that I can recite from heart. One of my favorite exchanges is below.
Lou Brown: That’s Jake Taylor. He was an all-star in Boston right?
Charlie Donovan: Yeah, he wound up in the Mexican Leagues because he had trouble with his knees.
Pitching Coach: Wish we would have had him two years ago.
Donovan: We did.
Pitching Coach: Four years ago then.
I’m not saying Wade is Jake Taylor, but that scene always comes back to me when teams sign guys like Wade. He was a really good player back in 2021 and 2022. However, it was short-lived as these things usually are. However, there is a difference between the basic numbers and the underlying numbers. So, let’s take a look at both and see what the Astros are getting.
AVG
HR
Runs
RBI
2021
.253
18
52
56
2022
.207
8
29
26
2023
.256
17
64
45
2024
.260
8
45
34
2025
.167
2
19
18
Observant readers will notice that the 2026 numbers are missing. That is because he has not been at the big league level yet this season. He was toiling in the International League with the White Sox’ triple A affiliate. In just over 200 plate appearances he has a .250 average, seven home runs, and 26 RBI. Of course, just looking at these numbers buries the lede. If you look at the ratios and BABIP it begins to make more sense.
SO%
BB%
Hardhit
BABIP
2021
23.4
8.7
41.7
.289
2022
20.3
10.4
34.3
.233
2023
18.3
14.6
39.8
.290
2024
22.4
15.5
44.1
.331
2025
24.0
11.2
31.8
.220
As you can see, some of the underlying numbers look a lot better than the basic numbers. In particular, he seems to fit in with the new approach by the hitting coaches. He takes more pitches and therefore takes more walks. His swing percentages are consistently in the same neighborhood as Isaac Paredes. His chase rates never went above 23 percent and sit at 19.5 for his career. Those make him perhaps the most selective player on the Astros roster.
He is normally a neutral fielder in left field, but has spent most of his time playing right field and first base. He has -5 defensive runs saved in over 1300 innings in the outfield. He has -1 DRS in almost 2400 innings at first base. So, you have a guy that can play three different positions at almost league average ability. Ostensibly, he is taking Joey Loperfido’s spot on the roster, so let’s take a look at his periherals.
SO%
BB%
Hardhit
BABIP
2024
36.3
5.0
34.7
.331
2025
26.0
3.8
37.1
.431
2026
28.8
9.1
40.0
.400
When you look at the Astros bench, it looked like they were a little heavy on the strikeouts. The Astros sent Zach Cole down, but before he went down he had a strikeout rate of nearly 40 percent. Zach Dezenzo has a strikeout rate near 35 percent. Brice Mathews looks like a contact fiend compared to them. His K rate is “only” 32.9 percent. Suffice it to say, when you add in the substitution of Collin Price for Cesar Salazar and it looks like the Astros are trying to beef up their bench.
In 1996, Gerry Hunsicker (then the Astros general manager) signed veteran pitcher Terry Clark mid season to join the bullpen. At the time, Hunsicker said he was trying to “catch lightening in a bottle.” Clark would go onto have an ERA over 11,00 in five games with the Astros. Clearly, the lightening came nowhere near the bottle. Wade is no Clark, but this feels like a similar gamble. In AAA this season he has been the same guy he always was as he has drawn more than 40 walks. If we look at the statcast numbers we can see that Wade has been an underrated hitter throughout his career.
What statcast does is look at the expected numbers across the board depending on the quality and rate of contact by the hitter. Including in that is an adjustment for Fangraphs’ weighted on base average (wOBA) they call xwOBA. If we look at that along with the career numbers we can see what might be possible for Wade in Houston.
wOBA
xwOBA
xAVG
xOBP
xSLG
2021
.343
.344
.249
.322
.475
2022
.298
.320
.216
.314
.417
2023
.347
.360
.258
.375
.456
2024
.337
.356
.253
.373
.437
2025
.241
.281
.205
.309
.321
Career
.322
.338
.241
.341
.428
Weighted on base percentage is a number most fans are not familiar with. It mimics OBP but it includes a slugging element to it. A career .322 wOBA is actually pretty close to league average. As you can see, the expected numbers are better than that across the board. So, he is not a gas can like Terry Clark was, but there is a calculated gamble here. The gamble is that there will be some regression to the mean. The downside is that he might be on the way down.
Of course, a league minimum salary is not that much of a gamble. The Astros officially activated Joey Loperfido and optioned him to Sugar Land. The worst that can happen is that Wade isn’t the next Jake Taylor. If that happens then you cut him and bring Loperfido back up. What do you think? Are you excited about the Astros adding Wade?
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - APRIL 3: Jabari Walker #33 of the Philadelphia 76ers looks on before the game against the Minnesota TImberwolves at Xfinity Mobile Arena on April 3, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Images) | Getty Images
By any objective measure, Jabari Walker’s first season with the Philadelphia 76ers was a success. Signed last July to a two-way contract after spending three seasons with Portland, Walker ended up playing an important role for a Sixers team that often found itself thin in the frontcourt. He appeared in 64 regular-season games for Philadelphia, averaging 4.3 points and 3.0 rebounds. Walker’s efforts earned him a standard NBA contract in mid-February; he is now set to make $2.58 million for the upcoming 2026-27 season, with $250k guaranteed and the deal fully guaranteed on Jan. 10, 2027.
Jabari’s calling card would have to be his rebounding, which was useful on a Sixers team that struggled mightily in that area. His mark of 9.1 rebounds per 36 minutes ranked 43rd across the entire NBA. With his work on the glass and ability to guard a couple positions, you see the makings of a glue guy in Walker. However, there are some holes in his game that bear examination.
First, Walker is not a shot blocker. He only blocked 13 shots total during the regular season and has never averaged even 1.0 block per 36 minutes across his NBA career. Nick Nurse played some minutes with Walker as a small-ball five, but if he’s not going to offer any rim protection, that can’t be anything more than a change-up option for limited minutes.
The likelier path forward for Walker is as a 3-and-D big at the power forward position, with particular scrutiny on the “3” part of that equation. Jabari was neither an effective, nor high volume shooter from deep during his season as a Sixer, shooting 32-of-95 (33.7 percent) in total. The team believes in him in that area and could point to a couple random successful nights during the season (4-of-8 against Milwaukee in December or 4-of-7 against Utah in March). However, Walker needs to be a lot more consistent from behind the arc, both in shooting it slightly better and pulling the trigger enough that opposing defenses won’t completely play off him and clog the lane to stymie his teammates’ attacks.
Finding Walker as a two-way guy on the proverbial NBA scrap heap undoubtedly counts as a win for former Sixers lead executive Daryl Morey. Having someone on a minimum contract capable of giving you reliable minutes in a pinch has real value for an NBA club. Mike Gansey and new decision makers will be in the front office, though, and might have a different opinion on Jabari’s value in Philadelphia. With only a partial guarantee next season, it’s no sure thing that he sticks around. It will be up to Walker to prove his worth and do more to remain with the Sixers and maybe progress towards being a full-time rotation player.
What did you think about Walker’s first season in Sixers’ red, white and blue? Are you excited to see more from him in the fall or ready to turn the page and find the next diamond in the rough? Let us know in the comments.
SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS - JUNE 03: Jalen Brunson #11 of the New York Knicks shoots the ball against Victor Wembanyama #1 and De'aaron Fox #4 of the San Antonio Spurs during the fourth quarter in Game One of the 2026 NBA Finals at Frost Bank Center on June 03, 2026 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) | Getty Images
After a Game 1 Finals loss that felt all too familiar in more ways that one, I continue our fourth installment of Fraternizing with the Enemy with the editor-in-chief of our Knicks sister site, Posting and Toasting, Russell Richardson. The Spurs didn’t look anything like themselves, but the good news is they have shown they can make adjustments and flip the switch after poor performances in each of the previous three rounds. The bad news is the Knicks were far from the greatest version of themselves and have plenty of room to improve as well, so we discuss what to expect from both teams in what will be a vital Game 2, particularly for the Spurs.
Click the link if you missed part 1 and would like to catch up.
J.R.
After one game, we’re a lot closer to your prediction than we are mine. If San Antonio doesn’t fix the problems I’m about to address, you’re in a great position to see Wilco with your wife without having to miss a Finals game. Great performances from your team. Truly. And not a very good showing from the hometown boys, which was not at all what I was expecting. In some ways it looked like San Antonio didn’t prepare any kind of Knicks-specific approach to the game. Which seems puzzling.
So puzzling that I’m reminded of the last time I was puzzled like this, Game 1 of the 2017 playoffs second round series against Houston. The Spurs didn’t cater their standard game plan to the Rockets. They came out with a plain-vanilla offense and defense, and got absolutely trucked. Lost by almost 30. Do you remember Mike D’Antoni’s, “three is more than two” press conference? That was after Game 1. The overwhelming narrative leading up to Game 2 was the antiquated nature of the Spurs system and how inevitable Houston’s victory was.
Then Gregg Popovich made adjustments based on what he saw after Game 1 and the Spurs won four of the next five games, with an overtime win in Game 5 that ended with Manu Ginobili’s over-the-back block of James Harden‘s three-point attempt and led to a Game 6 in which Harden failed to show up in any meaningful way. (You may experienced something like that from Harden yourself.) So San Antonio has had this kind of weird series start before, and they’ve come out smiling.
While I have no insight to the adjustments being cooked up by Mitch’s Coaching Staff (MCS?), here are the things I noticed that I would like to see addressed.
First, Victor had his first truly disappointing game of the playoffs. Some people would say that Game 5 of the WCF qualifies, but for me that was passive Wemby and Wednesday night was … I dunno what to call it. Hyperactive Wemby? Whatever it was, it can’t happen again if SA wants to win. Since February 1, there have only been three games in which Wemby has been a minus in his minutes on the court. And two of those have come against the Knickerbockers, which is not very confidence-inducing when all of the games for the rest of the season are against the same team. Expect angry-but-composed Wemby for Game 2.
Second, in a game-on-the-line, clutch situation, your go-to play can’t be a Wemby isolation from outside the 3 point line. A couple of hours before the game I was talking with one of my writers, and I said that Wemby’s favorite play is probably freelancing. Well, if you default mode is letting him have his favorite play, that’s fine. He can have it for 43 minutes of the game. But when it comes down to the final 5 minutes of a nip and tuck Finals game, how about we run some kind of action; some kind of pet play that we like our chances with? Expect a firm let hand from Mitch in these situations going forward. Or at least expect the guys to get an earful and handle it differently next time.
Third, against a lineup without OG, the Spurs allowed Brunson and Shamet to stay on the floor without running any offense at them. That should probably not be allowed to stand. There are so many ways to get them involved in actions that it’d be silly to even start a list. Either play Shamet off the court or tire him out. Force Jalen to exert himself in his own end and even if he’s still fresh as a daisy in crunch time, at least you’ll be scoring points along the way which would be a far cry from posting 18 in the fourth like in G1. Expect SA to do more targeting of NY’s weaker defenders.
Fourth, more Harper, and a greater range of actions run for him during said more. What did the kid try to do in his Finals debut that he couldn’t do? I can’t think of anything realistic that could’ve asked of a player that he didn’t deliver on. I could go on, but that’s over 600 words already and I don’t want to try your patience.
What did you see that you liked from the first Finals game, and what concerns you?
R.R.
It was a thrilling Game One, from our vantage at least. We thought San Antonio played well enough to win, especially given how rusty the Knicks were on offense. After a promising start, we didn’t expect them to finish the first quarter with 19 points. They had played eight games in 23 days, and it showed in the halftime numbers.
Nor did we think this game would so closely resemble the NBA Cup Final, in which New York rallied from a double-digit third-quarter deficit and held the Spurs to 19 points in the fourth to win. Uncanny similarities!
I agree that the series is far from over, if San Antonio makes your recommended adjustments. I was surprised at how underutilized Harper was in the second half, and that Brunson wasn’t hunted more — especially when he was initially injured. Shamet’s a better defender than his reputation suggests, but admittedly one of the weaker links in the chain. Targeting him makes sense.
As for Wemby, we agree again: bombing threes late in a tight game (or freelancing, as you say) seems a suboptimal use of his talent. Keep sending that big fella to the cup! He’s more likely to get three points that way (with an and-one) and stop the clock.
Tell me, do you communicate suggestions to Mitch Johnson by text or email? For Thibs, I used to hide video messages on VHS tapes, mislabel them (randomly, e.g., “Portland vs. Pacers, Jan. 5, 1982”), and leave them on the sidewalk outside the practice facility. VHS is Thibs’ catnip.
Regrettably, Mike Brown has a restraining order against me.
We liked plenty of what we saw in this first contest. New York remains confident and resilient. It’s reassuring to know Captain Clutch still has his mystical powers. KAT was pretty sweet, too. When New York runs the Towns-Brunson pick-and-roll, it opens multiple scoring options for them. Why they don’t spam it 100 times per game baffles me. That said, the Spurs had real trouble containing Towns whenever Victor rested. Come to think of it, Wemby didn’t do much to slow him, either.
Bridges and Hart combining for 12 points wasn’t too concerning. I wrote about Josh in the postgame piece:
“By the end of the game, Josh would have three points on 1-of-5 shooting, which looks bad. But run your eye across the stat line and let the truth reveal itself: 14 rebounds, six assists, four steals, a block, and a team-high +22 in his 27 minutes. His relentless energy rescued this game from the loss column.”
New York won’t have many more off-shooting nights in the series. Wait till you see these guys really cook with gas! Not only has New York won 12 games in a row, but 11 of those were by double digits. Impressive stuff from a team that’s considered the underdogs.
Brunson’s shooting reminded me of 1994’s Game One. In that tilt, Patrick Ewing went 10-for-26, and in this one Brunson shot 12-of-31. Same stinky, different outcomes. Even after a janky shooting performance by Jalen, we can sing his praises. Yet again, his shots fell in the clutch.
The Knicks have so many weapons that when Brunson is cold, someone else can step into the void. You saw it in Game One. KAT carried the team through the middle of the game. Anunoby was kind of a dud through three quarters, then knocked down eight points to swing the game. Another night, Bridges will drop 20 points on eight shots. Or Shamet might go 5-of-9 from yard, or Clarkson contributes 15. Mike Brown has a lot of cool toys!
Were you surprised by the contributions of your supporting cast, namely Fox, Vassell, and Johnson? I see they combined for 19 points. Also: Champagnie loves shooting three-pointers against the Knicks, making 18-of-34 in four games against NY this season. Finally, at last, Mike Brown schemed to stop this kid, limiting him to one point post-intermission. You’ve watched more of him than I—does he just go gonzo for Knicks games, or is he a ‘for real’ gunslinger? (I could look this up on Basketball-Reference, but stats can be suspicious…and I’m falling asleep.)
J.R.
The last time I had a mode of secret communication with a Spurs coach, it was Bob Hill. And I don’t need to tell you how that turned out. Suffice to say that there was nothing else for it but to work my way into the blogging business and lob my thoughts to the team that way.
In the game, San Antonio has a lead and loses a lead because they only score 19 in the fourth while Brunson goes off; I can’t tell whether I’m talking about Wednesday night or NBA Cup Final. That’s far too uncannily similar, but I have a solution. We need more cans in this series asap! Now, I just need to figure out what a can is in this context, and we’d have something. I know! I’ll make a VHS tape and — my wife is shaking her head … apparently I don’t have a camcorder anymore. That’s unfortunate.
Instead, let’s talk about Wemby’s defense on Towns (besides a few choice words I have that I won’t share here — suffice to say they aren’t complementary). I’d love to see Vic never leave his defensive stance while guarding a shooter on the perimeter unless his man is already off the ground in the middle of his jump shot. It’s not that Wemby can’t block three pointers, it’s that it’s just so rare that anyone does. In the meanwhile the number of times he’s been blown by for a layup this season is measured in the dozens! I don’t see anything of value being accomplished by Vic hunting blocks so far from the basket when he gives up far more total points when his timing isn’t perfect and he jumps too soon. I’d love to see what KAT can accomplish if Wemby simply plays solid perimeter defense on him. If he still goes off, then something structurally will need to change, but I doubt that. And it seems like Victor agrees because one of his post game quotes was about how he needed to just make normal plays.
Next to Brunson, who I will get to in a minute, I thought Hart was the MVP for New York. Relentless energy isn’t enough to explain Hart’s impact. Plus/minus isn’t enough either. He’s got that thing. The one where you know when you see it. It jumps off the screen as you watch on TV and it smacks you in the face when you’re viewing in person. Alex Caruso has it too. After seven games of seeing a one of Those Guys in the right place at the right time with the exact play, maybe the only play, that would stop the Spurs’ score or play or run, San Antonio fans have run right into another! Hart is a guy you hate but would love him in an instant if he was on your team and I don’t want to say another word about it right now.
Jalen’s late hot streak cures all — you can shoot as bad as possible IF you’re able to can the looks that matter. (There’s another “can.” I told you they were important!) Shooting is important too, and by the time your guys are cooking with gas, then Wemby will need to be operating at fully operational arrow station levels, or it’ll get ugly.
I wasn’t surprised by the inability of Fox, Vassell and Johnson to score more. Fox will have a bad game even when he’s healthy, and his ankle is obviously still limiting him. He bounces back regularly though. Vassell has played great in the playoffs and while he had an off night from deep (1-6) he hit 3 of 5 from the field, dished 3 assists and grabbed 9 huge boards. I’m not concerned about him. Johnson’s the one that’s weird to me. He only saw 8 minutes of play time and I didn’t see much of a reason for that. Sure he was 1-4, but he was the lone Spur with a positive +/-. Mitch obviously saw something he didn’t like. Gotta hope that turns around.
Which brings us to Julian Champagnie, who doesn’t just like shooting against the Knicks. Julian is now a certified flamethrower, and while he had a cold spell during the season and an early lull against OKC, he’s firing on all cylinders and will need to occupy a good amount of New York’s defensive attention.
R.R.
I’m glad you ‘can’ (ouch) maintain your humor after the opening loss. Surely the Spurs will reward your confidence soon. Despite their 12-game win streak, I still doubt New York will sweep. There’s too much talent on your side of the court.
The mismatch tortured us the last time these two fought in the Finals, back in 1999. Compared to then, this is already basketball nirvana. Cynicism aside, it is pretty cool that the NBA will have a different champion for the eighth straight year.
Your comparison of Caruso to Hart is dead on. I feel the same about Caruso (and used to about Jose Alvarado): that stinker is insufferable until he’s on your team, when he becomes your favorite player. Whether that holds true for Dillon Brooks, we’d have to ask a Phoenix or Memphis fan. And I stand by my solemn vow not to root for any team that employs the services of Kelly Oubre Jr. It’s an irrational dislike, but real.
I don’t know what to make of Keldon Johnson. He must have played some great games this season to earn Sixth Man of the Year honors, but he’s underwhelmed in the small sample size I’ve witnessed. Vassell impresses me more, and I’m bracing for him to perform better in his second chance. Your comments about Wemby seem to point to the immaturity of youth. The more he hangs out with the monks, the more disciplined he’ll become, and then the league will really be screwed.
A note about Champagnie. We are spoiled to have Mike Breen and the great Walt “Clyde” Frazier as our commentators for Knicks games. Clyde is in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame twice, as a player and broadcaster, and our SB Nation site is named after one of his colorful colloquialisms. One of his most endearing qualities is his singular ability to mangle names. To hear him say “Julian Champagne-y” is one of life’s joys.
We were glad that Knicks superfans Ben Stiller and Spike Lee made it to Texas. There may still be time for me to buy a ticket, fly to San Antonio, rent a hotel room, grab a secondary-market seat, and attend Game Two. Sadly, the grand total would be cheaper than trying to get into MSG for Games Three or Four. New York has two strata of fans: the wealthy set who can afford astronomical ticket prices, and the unwashed masses who watch from home or behind barricades on the street outside MSG. I proudly represent the latter, although, admittedly, sometimes the greed at the Garden is a nagging stone in my shoe.
Along those lines . . . as a fan, how does it feel when so many at Frost Bank Center are cheering MVP! for Brunson at the free-throw line? Poor Donovan Mitchell may never recover from that particular torment.
Here’s a true, unflattering story to wrap this up. Around the eight-minute mark of the second quarter, my wife texted from the bedroom to ask for help removing a splinter from her foot. Since she’ll never read this: I absolutely considered pretending to miss the message because the game was so good. Luckily, Mitch Johnson called a challenge timeout that allowed me to fulfill my husbandly duties.
Later, Jen texted that she was now streaming the game on her laptop because “everyone is talking about the game.” Hence, down the stretch, I was shouting in the living room, she was shouting from the bedroom, and our house must have sounded bananas from the sidewalk. I imagine things were equally wild at La Casa de Wilco. Let’s hope for more of the same great basketball in Game Two. Good luck to you (but Go Knicks, obviously).
Jun 2, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Kyle Harrison (52) gets doused by center fielder Garrett Mitchell (5) after beating the San Francisco Giants at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images | Benny Sieu-Imagn Images
It’s June 5, roughly two-and-a-half months into the baseball season. The current ERA leaderboard (and Cy Young Award shortlist) is:
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI): 1.46 ERA, 1.089 WHIP, 4.7 WAR, 13 GS, 7-2 record, 86 1/3 IP
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL): 1.65 ERA, 0.789 WHIP, 3.0 WAR, 12 GS, 6-2 record, 71 IP
Cam Schlittler (NYY): 1.89 ERA, 0.865 WHIP, 2.9 WAR, 13 GS, 7-3 record, 76 1/3 IP
As tempting as it would be to turn this into another Jacob Misiorowski article, we’ve already covered his dominance at length. Instead, let’s compare those three pitchers to Brewers’ No. 2 starter Kyle Harrison:
Kyle Harrison (MIL): 1.57 ERA, 1.029 WHIP, 2.7 WAR, 11 GS, 7-1 record, 57 1/3 IP
Harrison hasn’t quite thrown enough innings to qualify, but his ERA would rank second in baseball — behind only Sánchez. He’s already been worth almost three full wins above replacement (WAR), comparable to Misiorowski and Schlittler, and has a lower WHIP than Sánchez. It’s not exactly hyperbolic to say that through his first 11 starts as a Brewer, Kyle Harrison has been one of the best pitchers in baseball.
A little over three months ago, when the Brewers traded for Harrison, I wrote an article explaining why Brewers fans should be more excited about him. He was once a top prospect, highly regarded enough to be the main piece in a trade for Rafael Devers, but his development had stalled out a bit in major league stints with the Giants and Red Sox.
Knowing the Brewers would likely overhaul his arsenal — as they often do with young, developing pitchers — that article was my attempt to predict how they might mold Harrison into a more effective starter. Now that he has enough innings under his belt for a meaningful evaluation, we can look back at that article and see how close it came to what the Brewers actually did. In the process, we’ll examine the adjustments that have helped fuel Harrison’s breakout season.
So, what’s changed?
Harrison’s arsenal has always been anchored by his late-rising fastball — the best pitch in his arsenal — but for most of his career, his main secondary options (changeup and slurve) were somewhat lacking. Looking back, the first article did a pretty good job of identifying the adjustments he needed to make:
“What does Harrison need to live up to his potential? Simply put, he needs better shape on his secondary pitches and a go-to secondary offering.”
As it turns out, those two improvements are exactly what fueled his breakout.
Harrison’s Changeup
In 2024, Harrison threw a changeup 19.8% of the time. Opposing batters weren’t particularly fazed by that iteration, hitting .287 with an xSLG (expected slugging percentage) of .461. This year, opponents are hitting .292 against the pitch, but with an xSLG of only .385. While his changeup hasn’t exactly become Airbender-esque, he’s limiting hard contact and forcing hitters to respect it.
Much has been made of Harrison adopting a new changeup grip, the “kick change,” from former Giants teammate Hayden Birdsong. Birdsong’s changeup is notable for its unusually low spin rates, often registering in the 1,200 rpm (rotations per minute) range. Harrison’s changeup in 2024 averaged 1,946 rpm. This year, it’s all the way down to 1,233 rpm.
Changeups with lower spin rates usually drop more as they reach the plate. Implementing the kick change has fundamentally changed the shape of Harrison’s changeup:
His changeup actually breaks less overall than it did in 2024, yet it’s been more effective because its shape complements the rest of his arsenal. Every fastball-oriented pitcher can benefit from an effective changeup, as the two pitches are typically thrown from a similar arm slot with comparable arm speed and release points. Harrison’s best pitch is his rising fastball, and the changeup plays off it beautifully. Thrown from the same arm slot and with a similar release to his fastball, his changeup arrives slower and breaks down instead of up, making it much more difficult for hitters to square him up.
The other reason Harrison’s changeup has been more effective? He’s throwing it less often. In 2024, he threw the pitch 19.8% of the time. This year, that figure is down to just 10%.
That might sound counterintuitive, but not every pitch benefits from being featured heavily. Harrison’s changeup is a useful complementary offering, yet it’s clearly his third-best pitch. By reducing its usage, he’s able to lean more heavily on his fastball and slurve while still keeping hitters honest.
That said, there is a point where a pitcher can become too predictable. Harrison has thrown just 11 changeups over his last two starts, good for only 5.5% of his total pitches. The changeup’s value doesn’t come from being a wipeout pitch; it comes from forcing hitters to respect a third option. If hitters stop expecting it altogether, some of that value disappears.
Harrison’s Slurve
One of the things Harrison was reportedly working on in his time with the Red Sox was developing a higher-velocity version of his slurve, which had potential but wasn’t consistently effective. Opponents had an xSLG of .471 against the pitch in 2024 and .518 in 2025.
In the February article, I mentioned that Harrison was throwing his slurve nearly two mph faster in 2025 and getting an extra 1.6” of vertical break. Previous articles on Harrison had noted that a slightly harder breaking ball might be the answer, which I brought up as something that the Brewers could “have already pinpointed.” It looks like they have:
2024: 80.6 mph, 8.7” break, 4.6” drop
2026: 82.1 mph, 10.9” break, 3.8” drop
As you can see, with the increase in velocity has come a change in shape. Harrison’s slurve has 2.2 more inches of horizontal break while dropping almost an inch less. This year, opponents have hit .115 with a .222 xSLG in 64 plate appearances against the slurve. In 2024, before he’d started implementing the new version, opponents hit .274 with a .471 xSLG.
Harrison is throwing the slurve more than he ever has (29.2% of pitches), and with better results. He’s not getting more spin on the ball, or more extension, but that small increase in velocity has given it a much more effective shape and turned it into what looks like a true go-to secondary offering.
Harrison’s Fastball
Because his secondary pitches historically haven’t been that effective, and because it’s his best pitch, Harrison has always thrown his fastball a lot — like, almost 60% of the time. His fastball’s best quality is its shape rather than its velocity, but when velocity declines, so does movement. Lower velocity also gives hitters more time to recognize the pitch and square it up.
With all that said, it’s not a surprise that his success has been pretty directly correlated to his fastball velocity:
His best season in terms of fastball velocity has also been his best overall season so far, his second-best velocity year was his second-best overall season, etc. You get the idea.
Unlike his changeup and slurve, Harrison hasn’t significantly altered his fastball or its usage rate. Instead, the pitch has benefited from two developments: increased velocity and a stronger supporting cast. Hitters have less time to react, and they’re less able to gear up for the fastball because Harrison’s secondary pitches now demand respect.
Harrison’s Delivery
Another big change, one that I didn’t predict, is Harrison’s positioning on the rubber. He used to pitch from the third-base side, but this year he’s been working from the first-base side. The adjustment gave him a different angle of attack against hitters and changed the way each of his pitches played, especially the slurve.
As explained in this great breakdown, Harrison’s slurve breaks away from left-handed hitters, so moving to the first-base side of the rubber allows him to release it from a more deceptive angle. The pitch appears closer to the hitter out of his hand, making it more difficult to track and judge whether it will finish in or out of the strike zone. Against right-handed hitters, the slurve starts farther outside, increasing the likelihood that hitters either give up on it too early or recognize too late that it’s going to clip the zone.
Harrison’s Arm Angle
The final change, and another that I didn’t bring up in the first article, is Harrison’s arm angle. Harrison raised his arm angle from a low three-quarters arm slot to more of a true three-quarters release. His release point, as you can see below, also moved further toward first base.
One of the biggest changes behind Kyle Harrison's breakout has been a significant shift in his release. His arm angle increased from roughly 27° to 33°, while his release point moved both higher and farther toward first base.
While Harrison’s new arm slot accentuates the benefits of moving to the first-base side of the rubber, it also comes with advantages of its own. A higher release point allows pitchers to get more on top of the baseball, which can increase spin. Harrison’s fastball spin rate has jumped from 2,203 rpm in 2024 to 2,359 rpm in 2026, and he’s getting about three more inches of vertical break.
The other piece of the puzzle is his vertical approach angle (VAA). Milwaukee has long favored pitchers with flatter VAAs because they create a deceptive effect, making fastballs appear quicker and causing hitters to swing underneath them.
Harrison has historically had a very flat VAA because of his lower arm slot, and because it accentuates the effect of his rising fastball. In order to keep the advantages of a flat VAA without losing the benefits of a higher arm slot, Harrison — as Matthew Trueblood detailed here — has introduced mechanical adjustments, getting lower into his delivery before release to keep his pitches flatter.
When you dive into the tweaks Kyle Harrison has made this year, it’s no surprise that he’s turned into one of the best pitchers in baseball. The talent was always there. Harrison always had the raw ingredients to become a solid major league starter; he just needed better secondary pitches and a few mechanical adjustments that maximized his strengths.
Now, he has both. His revamped arsenal and refined delivery have transformed him from a pitcher with intriguing upside into one who is beginning to realize it. If these changes continue to hold, Harrison’s ceiling looks much higher than “solid.”
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - JUNE 02: Jarren Duran #16 of the Boston Red Sox catches a fly ball for the second out of the fifth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Fenway Park on June 02, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jaiden Tripi/Getty Images) | Getty Images
After a week out west, the Yankees returned home on Tuesday for a series against the Guardians that could’ve gone better. The Yankees dropped the opening two games of the series, before eking out a 2-1 win in the finale. Looming over the proceedings is the fact that Aaron Judge is about to hit the injured list with a rib stress fracture that seems likely to keep him out of action until August at the absolute earliest.
However, now is not the time for the Yankees to wallow, as they’re set to welcome an old foe to town. Starting tonight, the Yankees will host the Red Sox in a three-game series in the Bronx. Boston has had a substandard season so far, and they just demoted the extended Brayan Bello after losing two out of three to the Orioles. But you know they’d love to rub the Yankees’ nose in it and beat them this weekend in the Bronx anyway. Note that they’re missing some familiar faces, as Garrett Crochet, Roman Anthony, Trevor Story, and Garrett Whitlock are all on the IL.
Before things get going tonight, here’s a look at the probable pitchers for the next couple days.
Friday: Ryan Weathers vs. Sonny Gray (7:05 pm ET)
Following a couple nice starts in a row, Weathers had a down outing last weekend in Sacramento against the Athletics. His stuff still looked pretty decent, as he ended up striking out 10 batters, but he gave up three home runs to doom him to a subpar start. This will also be his first venture into the rivalry as a member of the Yankees, and also his first appearance in general versus Boston.
The former Yankee Gray was traded to Boston over the offseason, and has had a pretty good run of things so far. Since the beginning of May, he has a 2.00 ERA and a 2.73 FIP in 27 innings, having struck out 28 batters. He did not have much success in this rivalry while a member of the Yankees, but frankly there’s a lot about his time in New York that the Yankees could’ve handled better.
Saturday: Will Warren vs. Ranger Suarez (7:35 pm ET)
In his last appearance, Warren was on the mound for that weird 13-8 win over the A’s last weekend. He gave up three runs that day, but all of them technically went down as unearned. Warren’s been pretty bad against the Red Sox for his career, though Boston hasn’t faced the 2026 version of Warren, which has been very successful. Warren has a 9.42 ERA against Boston in 14.1 innings, as Boston’s tee’d off to a tune of a 1.029 OPS.
Boston’s offseason acquisition in Suarez has numbers that grade out pretty well on the season as a whole, but he has been a bit up and down. Of late, he’s been down, as he’s been gotten for nine runs in 10 combined innings over his last two starts. On the other hand, he allowed just one in 21.2 innings over the three starts prior to that.
Sunday: Cam Schlittler vs. Connelly Early (1:35 pm ET)
Last time out, Schlittler had arguably the worst start of his young career so far against Cleveland. The Guardians got him for four runs in just 4.1 innings earlier this week. The good news is, the last time he took the mound in a headline game against the Red Sox in the Bronx, he was pretty good.
Opposite Schlittler will be the same man who opposed him in that Wild Card Series Game 3: Connelly Early. Much was made of the rookie vs. rookie matchup that day, and Schlittler decisively won it, although Early wasn’t a total disaster. Honestly, his defense betrayed him in the four-run fourth inning more than anything else. He’s also been pretty decent so far this year, although he has given up six home runs over his last four games.
Sunday Night Baseball returns to Wrigley Field this week where the San Francisco Giants take on the streaky Chicago Cubs at 7:20 p.m. ET in a game which can be seen on NBC and Peacock.
Somehow, 10 years have passed since the Cubs defeated Cleveland in the unforgettable 2016 Fall Classic, ending the club’s 108-year championship drought. Somehow, Anthony Rizzo is now on NBC’s team and will be back in Wrigley this weekend.
And despite a 10-game losing streak at the end of May, there remains hope for Chicago’s pennant hopes. Winners of 92 games and a playoff series last year, the team offset losing Kyle Tucker by signing Alex Bregman (Five years, $175 million) and trading top prospect Owen Caissie to Miami for Edward Cabrera.
Those moves haven’t panned out as planned, at least not yet. Cabrera has thrown 10 uninspiring starts and 54 innings and will return soon from a stint on the injured list due to a blister on his right middle finger. Bregman has hit just five home runs (1.8% HR%), but his power is coming back. He slugged a home run last Sunday and had one called back on replay the night prior. There’s every reason to believe Cabrera and Bregman will return to form.
And there’s hope that outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, now in the leadoff spot for Chicago,will shake off his slow start. Opening Day starter Matthew Boyd is close to returning from his stint on the injured list after a knee injury cost him five starts. Picking up for the injured starters, Ben Brown (1.92 ERA through 51.2 IP) has been sensational.
May 14, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher Ben Brown (32) throws against the Atlanta Braves in the third inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images
Brett Davis-Imagn Images
It hasn’t been a great season yet, but there’s plenty of time. Through 60 games, the Cubs were still on pace to win 86 games and very much in the playoff hunt.
On March 25, the day before the season started, the Dodgers were the odds-on favorite to win the World Series, priced at +210 on FanDuel. The Yankees were next at +1000.
But there were a host of strong N.L. challengers, with the New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, and Philadelphia Phillies all set to field strong challenges.The Mets have already suffered through a 12-game losing streak, the Phillies through a 10-game losing streak, and the Cubs a 10-game losing streak.
The Cubs entered the season +1800 to win the World Series, the fourth-longest World Series odds in the N.L, but they entered as a favorite to win their division (and possibly with a bye as one of the two top division winners). +1800 is the same as 18-1, or a little better than a 5% chance of winning the World Series.
On Thursday, June 4, FanGraphs gives the Cubs a 44% probability of making the postseason, a 9.1% probability of winning the N.L. Central, and a 1.5% chance of winning the World Series.
That’s not nothing.
As the late Cubs’ legendary announcer Harry Caray—or Jim Carrey’s character Lloyd Christmas might say from the 1994 comedy Dumb and Dumber “So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”
Yes, there’s a chance—and with starting position players Bregman, Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki, and Ian Happ all on the wrong side of 30, their slim window may be closing quickly. Despite losing 14 of 17 entering play Thursday, the team is only one game out of a Wild Card spot.
A better story is breaking out on Chicago’s South Side, where the White Sox are also challenging for a postseason spot.
Last season, the White Sox were 60-102. In 2024, they were 41-121. In 2023, they were 61-101. In 2024, the White Sox won their 33rd game on September 8 (to make their record 33-111). The ChiSox won their 33rd game this season on June 3 (to make their record 33-29).
Something was brewing late last season on the South Side. In the second half of the season, the ChiSox had a positive run differential (scoring 315 and allowing 312). It’s a prime reason that according to the Pythagorean Theorem, the Pale Hose should have finished 71-91, and not 60-102.
And Senior V.P. and GM Chris Getz “gets” it. He had a strong offseason, despite trading Luis Robert Jr. The two main additions were Japanese power infielder Munetaka Murakami (two years, $34M) and closer Seranthony Dominguez (two years, $20 M).
Munetaka is on the IL with a hamstring injury, but the ChiSox have shown plenty of power even without him. Miguel Vargas is up to 15 homers, just one shy of his season total last year. The White Sox are fourth in the majors with 84 home runs. Last year, the White Sox were 23rd in HR with 165.
Jun 1, 2026; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Chicago White Sox third baseman Miguel Vargas (20) reacts to hitting a two run home run during the fifth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images
Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images
Through the first 60 games of the season, the Cubs and White Sox had the same record (32-28). That’s a pace for each to win 86 games.
There aren’t many seasons in history where both teams have won a minimum of 86 games each.
It’s happened nine times—but that includes 1904, 1905, 1906, 1907, 1908, and 1937.
Seasons where Cubs and White Sox both won 86+ games since 1938:
1967 (Cubs 87 wins, White Sox 89)
2003 (Cubs 89 wins, White Sox 86)
2008 (Cubs 97 wins, White Sox 89)
2008 is the only season besides 1906 that both made postseason. In that season, Lou Piniella led the Cubs to 97 wins only to lose in the Division Series. Ozzie Guillen led the White Sox to 89 wins only to lose in the Division Series.
Still in play this year: both teams can win 90-plus games. That’s happened exactly twice: 1906 and 1905.
The other two-market regions (New York, Los Angeles, until recently the Bay Area) have all had much more success.
Seasons where both teams both won 86+ games
Years w/both teams winning 86+
Years w/both teams winning 90+
Years w/both teams making it to World Series
Giants/Athletics
14
9
1989
Mets/Yankees
16
5
2000
Dodgers/Angels
11
5
-
Cubs/White Sox
9 (3x in 87 yrs)
2 (not since 1906)
1906
Note: Giants/Athletics only counts the seasons the Giants and A’s played in the Bay Area.
While the Dodgers and Angels never met in the World Series, both teams made it to the League Championship Series in 2009. The Angels lost the ALCS to the Yankees, while the Dodgers lost to the Phillies. That denied us all Joe Torre managing in the World Series against the Yankees.
The good thing about baseball fandom is that it is not a zero-sum game. North side fans in Wrigleyville can root for the Pale Hose. The Cubs’ real rivals are in St. Louis and Milwaukee. And White Sox fans (even the world’s most famous White Sox fan, Pope Leo XIV) can root for the Cubbies.
We have a chance for a rare year where both Chicago teams have winning records. Fly the “W” for both teams this year.
Editors’ Note: Elliott Kalb - dubbed “Mr. Stats” decades ago by Marv Albert and Bob Costas - is the former Senior Editorial Director at MLB Network and a longtime contributor of research and information to NBC Sports’ telecasts.
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - JUNE 04: Max Muncy #13 of the Los Angeles Dodgers walks off the field with a team trainer after a collision with Ildemaro Vargas (not pictured) of the Arizona Diamondbacks at first base during the fifth inning of the MLB game at Chase Field on June 04, 2026 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) | Getty Images
14 days ago against the Milwaukee Brewers, Max Muncy was forced to exit the game after taking a fastball to his wrist. Muncy found himself in another painful situation on Thursday, this time colliding head-first into Diamondbacks first baseman Ildemaro Vargas, forcing him to leave the game in the top of the fifth inning.
The Dodgers announced that Muncy was removed due to both shortness of breath and a possible concussion, as Muncy was visibly bleeding from his nasal bridge. Fortunately for the Dodgers, Muncy was able to both walk off the field under his own power, but Dave Roberts noted that he will miss tomorrow’s opener against the Angels as he spoke with Kirsten Watson of SportsNet LA following the 3-2 walk-off defeat.
“That was probably the main thing, just trying to make sure that he was ok. It was pretty violent… sore nose; there was some blood on his nose. He said he had some clarity when he got up and got into the clubhouse. He’ll be down tomorrow, which we intended anyway, but I think that he’ll be available over the weekend.”
“As I’m running down the line, I saw [Vargas] in foul territory, so I got to the inside of the bag and I thought he was going to stay on that side. It felt like neither of us knew which direction we were going to go, and then we both went the wrong direction, and, bang… I’m doing alright— a little banged up but we’re doing alright.”
Tanner Scott couldn’t keep the game tied in the bottom of the ninth inning on Thursday, as he allowed a walk-off home run to Ketel Marte resulting in his second losing decision over the Dodgers’ last six games.
Scott spoke with Watson following the walk-off, crediting Marte for squaring up a pitch that he didn’t think was a mistake.
“You gotta tip your cap. He’s a good hitter… I knew he was going to be aggressive.”
Here’s hoping that Scott doesn’t receive anymore death threats this time around. Once is already too much.
The Dodger bullpen spoiled what was a dominant performance from Justin Wrobleski, as the southpaw followed up Shohei Ohtani with six scoreless innings on Thursday, allowing six hits and striking out four. Despite earning a no-decision, Wrobleski felt pleased with both his game plan and his execution on the mound against Arizona, as he spoke with Kirsten Watson following the game.
D.J. Short
