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Monday's MLB card is loaded with star power, and a few of baseball's biggest bats find themselves in favorable matchups.

Before locking in your MLB player props, here are my MLB picks I'm targeting to leave their mark tonight.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
James Wood	+250
Michael Harris	+436
💲Today's HR parlay	+5875

Home run pick: James Wood (+250)

I think I am still out of breath from running to bet on this prop.

Washington Nationals star James Wood finds himself in the spot of all spots, as he draws Houston Astros right-hander Mike Burrows. Over his last 30 left-handed hitters faced, Burrows is allowing just a 17.4% ground ball rate. 

Yes, that means hitters are elevating the baseball 82.6% of the time. During that span, they are also generating a 43.5% hard-hit rate and an 8.7% barrel rate, while posting a .589 xSLG and a .355 xwOBA.

Wood may only have a .208 BA over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, but he also owns a .500 SLG, .867 OPS, and .377 wOBA, while producing an 86.7% hard-hit rate and a 13.3% barrel rate.

Yeah, give me the nuke.

• Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Nationals.TV, Space City Home Network

Home run pick: Michael Harris (+436)

We are backing dad strength in this one, Michael Harris to go yard against New York Mets starter Freddy Peralta.

The Atlanta Braves outfielder has been one of the few bright spots for Atlanta over the last month. The sparkplug is batting .268 with a .464 SLG and .781 OPS, while posting a 53.5% hard-hit rate and a 13.9% barrel rate in his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.

Harris enters Monday with an elite rating on Batters-Box’s current season metrics, with nearly 90% arsenal coverage against Peralta. The right-hander also owns a poorly rated matchup in ISO, wOBA, and hard contact on Batters-Box.

On the road, Peralta is allowing 69.4% elevation and a 36.1% hard-hit rate to lefties. Those hitters have produced a .571 SLG and .384 wOBA, and over his last 60 faced, he is allowing a 2.84 HR/9 with a .497 xSLG.

The Braves are slowly turning it around, and with Harris leading the way, they can keep building toward the form they showed two months ago.

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: BravesVision, SportsNet New York

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Start the week off right with my favorite MLB same-game parlay predictions for Monday's eight-game slate.

My top MLB picks begin with the Mets pulling off a road upset over the favored Braves (-132) and wrap up with the Dodgers pulling away from the Rockies in the nightcap.

Today's best MLB SGP picks

Game	SGP Odds
NYM vs ATL	+410
MIL vs STL	+410
COL vs LAD	+315

Mets vs Braves SGP: New York upsets Atlanta

The Atlanta Braves have dropped to 29th in wOBA and 27th in xwOBA through 21 games without star Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), while the New York Mets comfortably sit 16th and eighth in the two metrics. 

I also expect New York righty Freddy Peralta to pitch well. He’s held opposing hitters to the sixth-lowest barrel percentage among pitchers with at least 75 innings to pave the way for a respectable 3.78 xERA that’s way below his 4.81 ERA. Still, he’s failed to register 6+ strikeouts in seven of his past nine starts with a pedestrian 19.8 strikeout percentage.

The final leg of this SGP turns to Mets star Juan Soto, and with him ranking fourth in the majors in both wOBA and OPS against right-handed pitchers since the beginning of the 2024 campaign, I see value in the SGP down to +375.

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: BravesVsn, SNY

Brewers vs Cardinals SGP: Busch isn't light on runs tonight

The Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals rank first and third in xwOBA across the past 30 days while averaging 5.1 and 5.2 runs per game, so I’m anticipating both offenses putting runs on the board tonight.

Brewers lefty Shane Drohan has allowed an above-average .338 wOBA while pitching to a mediocre 4.09 ERA across 33 innings as a starter this season, and Cards righty Dustin May has surrendered a healthy 46.3% hard-hit rate, after all.

I recommend this SGP down to +390.

• Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CARD, BREW

Rockies vs Dodgers SGP: L.A. tees off on Freeland

There’s nothing pretty about Colorado Rockies starter Kyle Freeland’s underlying numbers, with his 18.5 blast-contact percentage and .394 wOBA allowed both sitting among the worst marks in baseball. Additionally, the Los Angeles Dodgers are fifth in wOBA against lefties this season and first in xwOBA across the past 30 days.

I also have confidence in L.A. lefty Eric Lauer. He’s limited opposing bats to a minuscule 25.3 squared-up contact percentage and 9.1 BlastCon% across five starts with the team, and the Rockies have the highest strikeout percentage against southpaws while also ranking below average in wOBA.

Dodgers outfielder Teoscar Hernández rounds out the SGP, and he’s recorded a rock-solid .268 batting average against lefties across the past three years. Hernandez is also ripe for a breakout game after going just 3-for-22 at the plate across six games since returning from a hamstring injury.

This SGP is in play down to +300.

• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SportsNet Los Angeles, COLR

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The Detroit Tigers opened July with three wins in four tries while going 5-1 on their road trip after securing a 6-3 win over the Texas Rangers in Arlington on Sunday afternoon. Riley Greene paced the offense with a three-hit day, falling just a double short of the cycle, while Casey Mize threw his second straight quality start en route to the victory.

This week, the Motor City Kitties return home for a six-game home stand heading into the All-Star break, starting with a trio against the Athletics beginning on Tuesday night. Left-hander Tarik Skubal will get the start in the opener looking to build upon his best outing since returning from the disabled list.

Last time out in the Bronx, the 29-year-old allowed two runs (one earned) on just one hit — a solo home run — and zero walks while striking out nine New York Yankees plus a hit batter over six innings of work en route to his fourth win of the 2026 campaign in a 9-3 triumph for the Tigers.

Up against Skubal for the Athletics will be right-hander J.T. Ginn, who also had a strong outing last time out after experiencing a rough June. The 27-year-old threw six frames of one-run ball on three hits (one home run) and five walks while striking out four Los Angeles Dodgers to earn his seventh win of the season in a 7-1 final.

Here is a look at how the two match up in Tuesday’s evening opener at Comerica Park.

Detroit Tigers (40-50) vs. Athletics (41-49)

Time (ET): 6:40 p.m.
Place: Comerica Park, Detroit, Michigan
SB Nation Site:Athletics Nation
Media: Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network

Game 91: LHP Tarik Skubal (4-4, 3.15 ERA) vs. RHP J.T. Ginn (7-4, 3.04 ERA)

SKUBAL

GINN

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (40-46) lost 8-2 (BOX SCORE)

Pecko started for Sugar Land but struggled a bit allowing 4 runs over 3 innings. Sugar Land got on the board in the 4th inning on a Salazar 2 run single. Knorr allowed 3 runs in relief as OKC extended their lead. The bullpen allowed one more run and the offense was quiet the rest of the game as they fell 8-2.

Note: Biggio has a .889 OPS this season.

• Cavan Biggio, 1B: 1-for-2, 2B, 2 BB
• Trenton Brooks, LF: 1-for-3, 2B, BB
• Lucas Spence, RF: 1-for-3, R, BB
• Cesar Salazar, C: 1-for-3, 2 RBI

• Ethan Pecko, RHP: 3.0 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
• Michael Knorr, RHP: 1.0 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Bennett Sousa, LHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• Brandon McPherson, RHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Christian Roa, RHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (37-43) won 3-2 (BOX SCORE)

Wesneski made a rehab start for the Hooks and pitched well allowing 1 run over 4 innings. The Hooks got on the board in the 5th inning on an Encarnacion 2 run home run. In the 8th, Rosario added a 3 run home run to extend the lead. Gillis went the final 5 innings allowing 1 run as he closed out the 5-2 win.

Note: Gillis has a 3.33 ERA this season.

• Joseph Sullivan, RF: 1-for-3, R
• Yamal Encarnacion, 2B: 1-for-3, R, HR, 2 RBI
• Tyler Whitaker, CF: 1-for-3, BB
• Max Holy, SS: 0-for-3, R, BB
• Jax Biggers, 3B: 1-for-4, R
• Hemmanuel Rosario, DH: 1-for-4, R, HR, 3 RBI, BB

• Hayden Wesneski, RHP: 4.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
• Brett Gillis, RHP: 5.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K (WIN)

A+: Asheville Tourists (27-53) won 11-8 (BOX SCORE)

Howard started for Asheville but struggled allowing 6 runs over 3.2 innings. Asheville got on the board in the 2nd inning on a Call solo home run. The offense rallied in the 3rd scoring 6 runs on an Ochoa 3 run home run, Nunez RBI double and Trujillo 2 run single. They got another run in the 4th on a Moss sac fly and one more in the 6th on a Hernandez RBI single. After Hub City got 2 in the 8th, Asheville responded with a Daudet 2 run double in the bottom of the inning. Wells closed it out with a scoreless 9th inning as Asheville won 11-8.

Note: Ochoa has a .896 OPS in High-A.

• Kyle Walker, SS: 0-for-4, R, BB
• Caden Powell, LF: 1-for-4, 2 R, BB, SB
• Nehomar Ochoa, CF: 3-for-5, 3 R, 2B, HR, 3 RBI
• Chase Call, RF: 2-for-4, 2 R, HR, RBI, BB
• Jack Moss, 1B: 0-for-2, RBI, 2 BB
• Cesar Hernandez, DH: 1-for-5, R, RBI
• Zach Daudet, 3B: 2-for-2, R, 2B, 2 RBI, BB, 2 SB
• Alejandro Nunez, 2B: 1-for-3, R, RBI, 2 BB, SB
• Keduar Trujillo, C: 1-for-4, 2 RBI, BB

• Dylan Howard, RHP: 3.2 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
• Raimy Rodriguez, RHP: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K (WIN)
• Anthony Cruz, RHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
• Bryce Collins, RHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
• Jackson Wells, RHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K (SAVE)

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (41-39) won 10-9 (BOX SCORE)

The Woodpeckers got on the board in the first inning on an Alvarez RBI single. They rallied in the 5th for 4 runs on Ramirez sac fly, Wakefield 2 run home run and Luciano RBI double. Smith got the start and was solid tossing 5 no-hit innings, though he walked 5 and allowed a run. Saunier allowed a few runs in relief but in the 7th, Luciano connected on a solo home run to extend the Woodpeckers’ lead. The Howlers took the lead with 4 runs in the 7th, but the Woodpeckers rallied again scoring 4 runs in the 8th on a Wakefield RBI single, Cauro walk, Flores walk and a run scoring on a wild pitch. Cassedy tossed a scoreless inning to close out the 10-9 win.

Note: Luciano has a .844 OPS this season.

• Josh Wakefield, LF: 3-for-5, 3 R, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB
• Xavier Neyens, DH: 1-for-3, R, 2B, BB
• Kevin Alvarez, CF: 1-for-6, RBI, SB
• Waner Luciano, 3B: 2-for-3, 2 R, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, SB
• Carlos Cauro, C: 1-for-4, 2B, RBI, BB
• Arturo Flores, 1B: 0-for-4, RBI, BB
• Hector Salas, 2B: 1-for-4, R, 2B, BB
• Kenni Gomez, RF: 0-for-3, 2 R, 2 BB, 2 SB
• German Ramirez, SS: 2-for-4, R, 2B, RBI, BB

• Aubrey Smith, RHP: 5.0 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 5 BB, 1 K
• Grayson Saunier, RHP: 1.0 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 1 K
• Jackson Wells, RHP: 2.0 IP, 3 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 4 BB, 0 K (WIN)
• Brandon Cassedy, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K (SAVE)

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: OFF

CC: OFF

AV: OFF

FV: OFF

The Washington Nationals finally had a reliever that looked good, and they sent him down. Well, that is quite the oversimplification, but I do wish Eddy Yean got to stay with the team after his electric debut. However, he threw 28 pitches, so he was not going to be available for a few days.

Now that he is on the 40-man roster and made that kind of first impression, there is no doubt that Eddy Yean will be back. I just hope it is sooner rather than later. The big right hander made his debut in a tough spot. Cade Cavalli just did not have it today, so Yean had to come in during the third inning with two on. He was able to stop the bleeding in that inning, and things just went from there.

Yean came in the ball game and attacked with his power stuff. That was a breath of fresh air for this bullpen. Yean’s heater averaged 97.8 MPH yesterday. The Nats bullpen just does not have that kind of velocity in it. I take a liking to big fireballers out of the bullpen, and Yean certainly fits that description. Seeing a guy who looks like a defensive tackle flirt with triple digits is pretty awesome if you ask me.

While Yean’s fastball is in the upper 90’s, his primary putaway pitch yesterday was his changeup. All three of his strikeouts came on the change, which has also been his primary whiff pitch in the minors. The pitch looks and moves a lot like his sinker, it just comes in about 8 to 9 MPH slower. That makes things really tough on hitters.

That first strikeout is a really good example of how his changeup plays. It does not have insane movement, but hitters are just out in front of the pitch. That leads to whiffs or ground balls. Those ground balls are a big part of Yean’s game. In the minors, his GB rate was 54.1%. Yesterday, Yean got a couple ground ball outs as well. Despite the big velocity, he projects more as a ground ball artist than a guy who gets a ton of strikeouts.

It was not just Yean’s performance on the mound that endeared him to fans though. The righty made a grand entrance on the bullpen cart to start his big league career. With how hot it was yesterday, I would have done the exact same thing. He is a big boy, and you don’t want him wasting any energy on things that do not involve pitching. It is also very cool and funny when guys take the bullpen cart.

Honestly, Eddy Yean was giving off a lot of Fernando Rodney energy yesterday. Between the Dominican heritage, the beefy build, the nasty changeup and big velocity, there are a lot of similarities there. Yean even had a flat-billed cap like Rodney, but it was not sideways.

Yean really seems like a charismatic presence, and could become a fan favorite with a few more good outings. I understand the process of sending him down, but I wish they rewarded good performances more than they do. It is also not like Yean threw 50 pitches like Carson Palmquist did in his Nats debut. 

This is really just a nit pick though because Yean is almost certainly going to be back soon. The bullpen is simply not good enough to have a guy with an upper 90’s heater and nasty changeup just sitting in the minors. Frankly, Yean should have been given a shot sooner than he was. You need velocity and stuff in the bullpen, and that is what Yean can provide.

Sometimes finding bullpen help can be simple. Just call on the big Dominican right hander who throws 99. Eddy Yean did not look scared or overwhelmed at all in his big league debut. Why would he feel scared, even in the big leagues, his velocity and stuff plays. I can’t wait to see more of the 25 year old righty.

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The San Diego Padres snapped an eight-game losing streak against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday Night Baseball.

They are -115 favorites to follow it up and win their series opener against Arizona, and my Diamondbacks vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks expect them to do just that.

Who will win Diamondbacks vs Padres today: Padres moneyline (-115)

Walker Buehler was blown up in his most recent start. Otherwise, it’s been smooth sailing for him with the San Diego Padres.

He's allowed two runs or fewer in eight of his past 10, and he’s been lights out at home all season — posting a 3.13 ERA and strong 50.4 GB%.

The Arizona Diamondbacksrank dead last in OPS against righties. They’re not a team that should give Buehler much trouble.

Look for the Padres, who are up to 16th in wOBA vs. RHP over the last month, to provide run support against Brandon Pfaadt. Bet this to -125.

COVERS INTEL:Brandon Pfaadt ranks in the 20th percentile in pitcher run value and allowed four runs over three innings against San Diego back in April.

Diamondbacks vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-110)

This total is a little high. Buehler hasn’t allowed more than three runs at home all year, and he has held Bottom-15 opponents in OPS to two runs or fewer in all four starts in San Diego.

The Diamondbacks are hitting .209 with a .285 wOBA against right-handed pitching over the past month. It’s tough to envision them doing much damage against Buehler in a pitcher’s park.

Although the Padres have improved offensively of late, it’s important to remember they rank dead last in runs, batting average, and OPS. They’re not a team that runs it up.

I'd play this to -120.

Diamondbacks vs Padres weather

Temperatures in the low 70s are expected with winds blowing southeast. Boost to the pitchers.

Diamondbacks vs Padres odds

• Moneyline: Diamondbacks -105 | Padres -115
• Run line: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+160) | Padres +1.5 (-190)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)

Diamondbacks vs Padres trend

The Padres have cashed the Under in 16 of their last 25 home games for +6.15 units and a 23% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Padres.

How to watch Diamondbacks vs Padres and game info

Diamondbacks vs Padres latest injuries

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Pitching is the currency of baseball, and if you’re drafting, college pitchers tend to be a safer bet than high school pitchers. The Royals have had some recent success drafting college arms like Brady Singer, Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch IV, and in the later rounds, Noah Cameron. If the Royals are looking for a college pitcher with the ceiling of a frontline starter, few prospects can match Jackson Flora. The UC-Santa Barbara right-hander has emerged as the consensus top college arm in a draft class considered light on pitching, combining premium velocity with one of the deepest repertoires available.

Jackson Flora, RHP, UC-Santa Barbara

Bats: Right

Throws: Right

Draft rankings:

• The Athletic: #3
• Baseball America: #4
• ESPN: #4
• MLB Pipeline: #5
• Perfect Game: #4

Flora broke out in 2026 after serving as the #2 starter for the Gauchos the previous season. The 6’5”, 205-pound right-hander dominated opposing hitters, posting a 1.05 ERA, striking out 133 hitters in 102 innings. He features a blazing fastball that a sits comfortably in the mid-to-upper 90s, generally working at 94-98 mph and frequently touching 100. Scouts praise its carry, riding life, flat approach angle, elite spin characteristics and above-average extension, all traits that make it a nightmare for hitters to square up. Baseball America grades it as a 65 on the 20-80 scouting scale, while Keith Law believes it has true 70-grade velocity and life. Flora does have trouble locating the pitch consistently, and will need to refine it to reach his full potential.

What separates Flora from most college pitchers is that he is no longer simply a hard thrower. After relying primarily on a fastball-slider combination during his first two collegiate seasons, he spent the offseason refining his secondary pitches, giving him a much more complete arsenal. Law calls Flora’s changeup a 70-grade offering and describes it as one of the best in the draft. Thrown at 86-90 mph, it mirrors his fastball out of the hand before fading away from left-handed hitters. The deception is exceptional, producing whiffs on nearly half the swings against it this season. Baseball America notes that the pitch became his primary weapon against lefties after significant offseason development, giving him an answer for opposite-handed hitters and eliminating concerns about platoon splits.

Flora also gives hitters multiple breaking-ball looks. He features both a harder, upper-80s slider with cutter-like characteristics and a sweeping slider in the low 80s with significant horizontal movement. MLB Pipeline notes both versions can flash plus, while Law particularly likes the sharper slider with late downward break that generates empty swings. Flora also throws a slower curveball, although both Law and Baseball America view it as his least effective secondary pitch and more of a change-of-pace offering than a true weapon.

Scouts generally agree Flora projects comfortably as a major league starter, though opinions differ slightly on his ultimate ceiling. Baseball America see him as a mid-rotation starter, noting that while Flora possesses premium stuff and solid control, he remains somewhat raw for a top college arm. MLB Pipeline similarly praises his combination of size, power stuff and durability.

Law is the most bullish evaluator. While acknowledging some effort in the delivery and occasional inconsistencies with his release point, Law writes that Flora has “no worse than mid-rotation” potential and could eventually develop into a true ace if he sharpens his fastball command or adds a two-seam fastball.

Royals scouting director Brian Bridges took a pair of college arms early in last year’s draft, selecting Justin Lamkin out of Texas A&M and Michael Lombardi out of Tulane. Jim Callis at MLB Pipeline reports the Royals are “most likely to not take a top six player”, although he notes he has also heard they like Flora.

Baseball America writes that the college pitching depth isn’t great after Flora, so this could be the opportunity to grab a high-ceiling, high-floor arm. There is a decent chance Flora is off the board by the time the Royals select at #6, but if he somehow falls, they may have little choice but to grab him as a potential steal.

America’s Ace is headed back to the Midsummer Classic.

For the third time in his young Major League career, former LSU star Paul Skenes is headed to the MLB All-Star Game as a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates and the National League.

The 2023 Dick Howser Award winner has a 3.62 ERA and 1.01 WHIP so far in 18 starts in 2026, along with 119 total strikeouts.

Skenes is the 14th Tiger to make an All-Star Game, and the Tigers have now been represented 13 times in the Midsummer Classic since 2015.

For his career, Skenes has a 2.35 career ERA in three MLB seasons with 505 strikeouts in 417.2 innings.

While with the Purple and Gold, he helped lead the Tigers to the 2023 National Championship while being the best pitcher in baseball with 209 strikeouts and a 1.69 ERA in 19 starts. He was charged with only 23 earned runs and 20 walks in that magical season, leading him to be selected 1st overall by the Pirates. His teammate, Dyland Crews, was selected second by the Washington Nationals, the first time the top two picks have come from the same program.

The All-Star Game is set for Tuesday, July 14 at 7:00 on Fox.

Another week of series comes to a close on the farm for the Phillies. Here’s a look at yesterday’s action.

Lehigh Valley 5, Rochester 3

Where it pertains to the Phillies, Brad Keller had another appearance with the IronPigs, throwing a scoreless innings, striking out one. The stuff looked better, which may mean he’s close to returning. With the kids, Robert Moore had two RBI to lead the offense, Payton Henry had two hits, all of which was backed up with a solid start from Drake Fellows (5 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 K) and good bullpen work.

New Hampshire 5, Reading 3

Raylin Heredia, have a day. The young outfielder went four for four with a walk and a run scored to lead an offense that couldn’t do much more. Heredia interests me since he seems to be putting up numbers each time we write these up and indeed, he has an .840 OPS with 16 home runs on the year. Alas, he also swings at virtually everything, evidenced by a walk rate that falls below 5%. In his latest prospect rankings, Matt Winkelman did not list him among his top thirty Phillies prospects. Hey, you never know, maybe he’ll discover some plate discipline and turn himself into something useful.

Rome 2, Jersey Shore 0

It’s a little concerning that the BlueClaws team is basically the desert of the Phillies’ farm system. There is barely a top prospect there and they are performing as such, Sunday’s game a microcosm. There was a decent start from Tanner Gresham (5 IP, 4 H, 2 R) that was wasted by nothing coming from the offense. I read an article this weekend about the owners’ proposal to continue outsourcing minor league development somewhere else and how it’s being felt on rosters around the minor leagues. Maybe this is the example in the Phillies’ own system, where Jersey Shore struggles to field decent rosters. At least they have Ramon Marquez (and Cody Bowker, to a smaller extent).

Clearwater 6, Ft. Myers 2

I think we need to start paying more attention to Juan Villavicencio. Having another good day where he’s 2 for 4 with an RBI double continues to raise his profile. Matthew Ferrera had a double and three RBI, Will Vierling had a two-run home run and the offense showed a pulse. There seems to be something bubbling down in Clearwater.

The Yankees have done an excellent job of sucking all the fun from baseball the past two weeks. It feels like an entire June Swoon’s worth of misery has been stuffed into the past 10 days. Unfortunately, I am extremely skeptical we are out of the woods.

The situation could be more dire, however. Thankfully, the Astros made themselves useful this weekend. A day after Yordan Alvarez burnished his MVP candidacy at the dish, outstanding pitching led Houston to another win, thereby handing the Rays a series loss and preventing Tampa from building a daunting AL East lead as the Yankees fester in their own bumbling ineptitude.

Tampa Bay Rays (52-35) 0, Houston Astros (45-47) 2

Today was far from an offensive outburst for either club. But Houston had just enough juice in their bats to eke out the win. First, Christian Walker launched a solo home run in the fourth, his 20th dinger of the season. What a difference a year makes: On this day in 2025, Walker’s season-long slump had him with a .673 OPS and a sub-.400 SLG while today, those numbers are .781 and .470, respectively.

Isaac Paredes followed with a solo shot of his own in the sixth, his 12th. That was enough offense, as the ‘Stros completely shut down Tampa. Peter Lambert continued his strong first half now that he has escaped Coors Field tossing 5.2 shutout innings before handing it over to the ‘pen. A pair of relievers got the game to the ninth, where Josh Hader loomed. Hader walked Junior Caminero (probably smart) to start the frame prior to retiring the next three Rays he saw to seal the game and series.

Other Games

Toronto Blue Jays (42-48) 0, Seattle Mariners (47-44) 4: At least the Yankees scored a run Sunday. That’s more than Tampa and Toronto can claim. Emerson Hancock took the ball and completely stifled the Jays offense. Hancock tossed seven shutout before the M’s ‘pen took over and notched the final six outs. At the plate, a Seattle backstop hitting south of the Mendoza Line was the hero. No. Not “The Big Dumper.” Mitch Garver clubbed a two-run home run, though Cal Raleigh did manage an RBI on a sac fly. Man. Has anyone had a worse follow-up season after an historically good one?

Cleveland Guardians (47-44) 6, Chicago White Sox (47-42) 7: Early, this one looked like it might be a barn burner. Five combined runs in the first. Chicago scored in each of the opening innings. First team to 10 wins? After Cleveland tied it at six in the home fifth on a Gabriel Arias three-run bomb, that looked possible. But you can’t predict baseball. The White Sox reclaimed their lead in the sixth then both clubs’ bats went silent. The ChiSox bullpen got the final nine outs, allowing only two baserunners. This is a genuinely fun turnaround for a team that was historically awful in 2024. Hopefully they can keep it up.

Daily perspective: Four teams with more wins than the Cubs. The Cubs are on a perfect 90-win pace. 72 games remaining. The Cubs managed one win from the Cardinals. A disappointing weekend, but a good homestand winning four of six. Fangraphs has the Cubs at 71 percent for a postseason spot. The Cubs have an off day Monday before a six-game road trip to Baltimore and Cincinnati. The early Fangraphs projection of those matchups has the Cubs somewhere between a small and medium favorite for the first five of those six games and an underdog in the sixth. An off day, then six road games, then the All-Star break provides a somewhat unusual opportunity to be a little more aggressive with bullpen usage. Matthew Boyd is in line for the two start week. I’m not sure there is per se a better option right now. I haven’t followed injury notes, but Fangraphs thinks Jameson Taillon takes the Saturday start (and no starts for Javier Assad). Taillon threw 3.1 innings in a rehab start for South Bend Sunday, allowed one run, struck out two and threw 45 pitches. So he and Assad could possibly piggyback on Saturday.

Enough perspective for one day. That feels like it at least could be a decent trip. So it’s a good thing the Cubs didn’t spoil the homestand by getting swept. Four of six feels pretty good against two teams that Fangraphs thinks have 41.5 percent and 12.5 percent likelihood of being in the playoffs. Putting a nail in a in no way sealed coffin for the Padres was terrific. That team might be in some amount of disarray right now, but with their bullpen and some of the bats they have there, that’s a team that has a puncher’s chance in a series.

The Cardinals have a tough road ahead and appear to be the third (or fourth) best team in their own division. That’s a tough, though clearly not impossible, road to the playoffs. I think if I could flat out pick where the wins fell, I’d have chosen two in each series, but I really don’t mind the 3/1 split. This is not a year where I feel it totally needed to be 3/1 with the Cardinals being the three.

What went right on Sunday? Javier Assad had a decent start, though he didn’t finish five, using 80 pitches to get two outs into the fifth. He allowed two hits and two walks. The Cubs rode two Cardinals errors in the decisive sixth inning to put together a four run inning. A walk and two hit by pitches in the first inning by Cardinal pitchers also helped the Cub offense.

Long story short, the Cubs were better on Sunday, but they really won this one because the Cardinals were pretty sloppier. Drew Pomeranz returned to the team and appears to be a potential contributor. We’ll see how spotty that will be. But obviously this team had a lot of familiarity with him and a ton of need. The team continues to keep their eyes open. There are a couple of more veteran relievers throwing innings in Iowa for the organization, as the team looks to try to float their injuries until some of the plethora of injured Cub pitchers start working their way back.

I will hat tip that the Cubs led 6-3 after six and ultimately won a game. I’ve belabored a lot that the Cubs really haven’t been involved in games like this, games where the team leads after six and turns it over to the pen to nail it down. I’m not sure how often they can throw Jacob Webb for two innings to nail down a save like this, but he hadn’t thrown all weekend and won’t be needed Monday, so it was a spot where this was an option. Webb has looked better, but knowing they wanted him to get six outs while also knowing he had a three-run lead to work with, this was a fine performance.

Webb now has three saves, matching Daniel Palencia for the team lead. It was a rare three-save week for the Cubs. And true to form for this team, the saves were recorded by three different pitchers. An interesting question is what will the Cubs end up with more of: Different pitchers with saves or walk-off wins? With 10 different players already having saves, you’d knee jerk that it’s going to be hard to find too many other guys to get saves. Pomeranz comes to mind right away. Phil Maton is the only other semi-obvious candidate. But I’ll eat my hat if the Cubs don’t trade for at least one reliever later this month. Then there are also those two veteran arms working at Iowa. Walk-offs are not a thing that are guaranteed to happen. I would probably say walk-offs are at least a 60-40 favorite.

Three Positives:

• Nico Hoerner had two plate appearances in scoring opportunities and had a sacrifice fly and an RBI-single, scoring two of six runners he batted with on base on the day.
• He had all of those opportunities because Michael Busch (single, two hit by pitch) and Carson Kelly (single, two walks) kept getting on base. Each scored a run.
• A hat tip to Jacob Webb for six outs even though he allowed a hit and a walk and an inherited run.
• Obligatory PCA update: two singles, hit by pitch, two stolen bases and a run scored. Pete is now on pace for a 30/40 season with 74 walks, 88 RBI and 101 runs. His ascendency to Superstar has been so much fun to watch.

Game 90, July 5: Cubs 6, Cardinals 4 (50-40)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Javier Assad (.252). 4.2 IP, 17 BF, 2 H, 2 BB, 0 R, 2 K
• Hero: Michael Busch (.204). 1-2, 2 HBP, R
• Sidekick: Dansby Swanson (.158). 1-4, R

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Tyler Ferguson (-.336). 0.2 IP, 3 BF, H, ER
• Goat: Ian Happ (-.089). 0-3, HBP (Cards hit four Cubs).
• Kid: Seiya Suzuki (-.072). 0-4

WPA Notes: Despite Ryan Rolison starting the sixth inning meltdown for the Cub pen, most of the WPA falls on Ferguson because they scored while he was pitching. Webb gets knocked for allowing the inherited runner to score. Absent that run, he slips past Dansby for third. Nico’s day doesn’t land higher because his RBI-single didn’t really massive move the needle on expected scoring. Run expectancy thought the Cubs would score 1.83 more runs in the inning before Hoerner’s single and after his RBI-single, total run expectancy for the inning was 2.48.

WPA Play of the Game: Jordan Walker’s three-run homer off of Tyler Ferguson with one out in the sixth turned a two run deficit into a one run lead. (.370)

Cubs Play of the Game: Dansby Swanson batted with runners on first and second with one out, scored tied in the sixth. He grounded to third, but Jose Fermin’s error led to a run and runners on second and third. (.198)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 89 Winner: Pete Crow-Armstrong received 83% of 36 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong +21
• Carson Kelly +14.5
• Michael Busch +14
• Ben Brown +13.5
• Trent Thornton +12.5
• Dansby Swanson -9
• Edward Cabrera -9.5
• Phil Maton -10
• Caleb Thielbar -13
• Seiya Suzuki -13.5

Up Next: That off day Monday. Matthew Boyd (3-1, 5.08) is scheduled for the first game of the trip. He’s 1-0 with three runs allowed in 9.2 innings since coming off of the IL. He threw 76 pitches in each of the two starts. I’d imagine at this point situation would dictate possibly going a little farther than that going forward.

The 42-49 Orioles have lost six of 10 and have a -28 run differential. They feel like the fifth best team in a division with two titans in it (though the Yankees are free falling right now). 27-year-old right Shane Baz (4-8, 4.19) will get the start. I know him best for his four years here in Tampa with the Rays, though he was the 12th overall pick of the Pirates back in 2017. He had a good start last time against the White Sox in Baltimore, allowing two runs over seven innings. He’s got a 3.30 ERA over his last seven starts (43.2 IP), so this is definitely no gimme.

The Orioles are 12th in runs scored in MLB. Their issue is the eighth most runs allowed. They are 13th in runs allowed by relievers, so the starters have been the problem. If you follow that set of stats around the circle, this is a decent chance for the Orioles to win a game.