With the playoffs expanded to six teams, it’s not surprising for the final spot to go to a team near .500. Just last year, the Cincinnati Reds won a tiebreaker over the New York Mets to grab the final spot at 83-79. In the good old days (before 2022), the San Diego Padres would have had the final spot at 90-72. The 88-90 win range just feels like an appropriate cutoff. Back in May, Matt outlined why the sixth playoff spot is “an abomination” and why the Red Sox were still very much in the playoff race.

Since May 21st, when this was written, the Sox have fallen from five-under .500 to eleven-under .500 after losing two of three to the Washington Nationals. They are 37-48 with 77 games to play. Out of context, that’s an insurmountable number of wins to make up from Independence Day forward. However, the fact that four of the six playoff spots in the American League are currently on pace for 85 wins or less is making this a wildly unique and extreme scenario.

• Chicago White Sox: T-1st AL Central – 45-41, .523 (Pace: 85-77)
• Cleveland Guardians: T-1st AL Central – 46-42, .523 (Pace: 85-77)
• Texas Rangers: T-1st AL West – 45-43, .511 (Pace: 83-79)
• Seattle Mariners: T-1st AL West – 45-43, .511 (Pace: 83-79)

Beyond that, the only two teams that feel like “a threat” are the Houston Astros (43-46, Pace: 78-84) and the Toronto Blue Jays (41-46, Pace: 76-86).

If there were only one playoff spot up for grabs that felt attainable, you’d have to assume that some team would go on a “19-and-4 in September” style run in the second half to make that spot unattainable like the Guardians did a year ago. The multiple spots available have somehow still kept the Red Sox projected playoff odds at 14%, according to Fangraphs. They are projecting the White Sox and Astros to tie for the final wild card spot at 79-83! Their projected win total for the Red Sox is 77-85, two games off of that pace.

If we go off of the current pace, the Red Sox would need to get to 83 games to tie, and 84 games to win the final playoff spot. It would take a record of 47-30 to get to those 84 wins. Of course, outside of a four-game sweep of the Yankees last weekend, there hasn’t been a single week this season that the team has given us reason to think that they could go on a run like that. Perhaps a road trip against the (slightly more) pathetic Angels and Mets can be a catalyst going into the All-Star Break.

In terms of the “worst” teams to ever make the postseason, MLB.com did a great recap a year ago of all of the teams that have made it with 85-wins or fewer. Never forget the 2006 Cardinals, who won their division with 83 wins back when only four teams made the playoffs in each league, and then went on to win the World Series.

Discuss in the comments, be good to each other, and Happy Fourth!

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Pitching will be the focus in my MLB same-game parlay predictions for tonight's action. 

I'm expecting both Trevor Rogers and Jake Bennett to throw gems, while Trevor Larnach should stay hot at the dish against the New York Yankees. 

Read more inn my MLB picks for Friday, July 3. 

Today's best MLB SGP picks

Game	SGP Odds
MIN vs NYY	+264
BAL vs CIN	+500
BOS vs LAA	+260

Twins at Yankees SGP: Larnach Steals The Show

Minnesota Twins outfielder Trevor Larnach is hitting .417 over the last week, and he's came across the plate in four of his last six games. The Twins' leadoff hitter is a sparkplug, and he's reached base safely in six straight contests as well. 

Larnach is coming off a three-hit performance, and, for what it's worth, the 29-year-old is also 2-for-7 lifetime against Gerrit Cole with a home run. The Twins also have 113 wRC+ over the last week. This lineup is producing, and Larnach is consistently putting himself in scoring position.  

As for Cole, he hasn't been great since returning from injury, but the veteran consistently pounds the strike zone. He's cashed the Under in walks allowed in back-to-back outings.

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: YES, Twins.TV

See full analysis of this game in our Twins vs. Yankees predictions.

Orioles at Reds SGP: Another Gem From Rogers

Baltimore Orioles starter Trevor Rogers is really settling in lately after a rough start to the season. The left-hander owns an impressive 2.52 FIP across his last five outings. During that span, Rogers has allowed just 0.29 HR/9 and 1.76 BB/9. He's consistently pounding the strike zone and inducing weak contact. 

Rogers has cashed the Under in earned runs allowed in three straight appearances, and he's up against a Cincinnati Reds offense that is hitting just .230 over the last two weeks. Rogers also has hit the Under in hits surrendered in three straight outings. 

Brady Singer is coming off a start where he allowed nine hits, and Gunnar Henderson enters this matchup swinging the bat well with two multi-hit games in his last three contests.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MASN, Reds.TV

See full analysis of this game in our Orioles vs. Reds predictions.

Red Sox vs Angels SGP: Bennett Dominates Halos

Boston Red Sox rookie Jake Bennett has impressed since earning his call-up, posting a 3.27 ERA while compiling a stellar 1.51 xERA across his last two starts. Bennett hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in three consecutive outings. 

He's also consistently limiting hard contact. The southpaw has allowed Under 4.5 hits in three straight, and opponents have just a 29% hard hit rate against him over the last month. 

His ability to consistently pound the strike zone has also allowed the youngster to work deep into games, tossing six innings in back-to-back starts. He'll face a Los Angeles Angels lineup with just 67 wRC+ over their last six games and a poor .268 wOBA. 

• Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NESN, ABTV

See full analysis of this game in our Red Sox vs. Angels predictions.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Good morning, LSB.

The Rangers beat the Tigers last night, 10-4.

Shawn McFarland says the Rangers finish their 15-games-in-15-days stretch by winning 10 of them.

It was another night of Texas’ unsung heroes leading the way to a win, writes Kennedi Landry.

In other news Brandon Nimmo is OK after slamming into the wall the other day and expects to play this weekend.

Newest Ranger Ben Peoples had a hectic week that finally saw him land in Arlington.

Jordan Montgomery and Cody Bradford, the elbow surgery bros, continue to progress.

The Socceroos took over the ballpark last night.

And Bobby V is the latest guest on Evan Grant’s Rangers podcast

That’s all for this morning. The Rangers are weirdly off today so have a nice baseball free Friday.

The Mets open a three-game series against the Braves on Friday night at 7:15 p.m.

Mets Notes

• Christian Scott owns a 3.18 ERA with 38 strikeouts over his last seven starts, including six against the Phillies last time out on June 27
• Francisco Lindor has homered twice in his last three games as he looks to get back on track since returning on June 24
• A.J. Ewing is hitting .304 over his last seven games with four RBI and three walks

Today's Lineups

As Dodgers third baseman Max Muncy moved fluidly through a chopper at the edge of Camelback Ranch’s infield grass and made a running throw to first, his offseason work started to snap into place.

He wasn’t thinking about the angle he took to the ball, or how to get into the right position to throw — or anything, really. He was just moving instinctively.

“That’s how I like to field it in my work, is not necessarily traditionally,” Muncy told The Times on Thursday. “I like to field it one-handed, sometimes off the wrong foot, sometimes off balance, and that’s what works for me really, really well. I just couldn’t get that into the game. And finally getting those first couple of balls [this spring] to go that way just made everything click in my head and gave me the freedom to know that I can do it when it matters.”

Muncy has put together an impressive all-around first half. His .871 OPS through Thursday leads NL third basemen. He’s on pace for his highest slugging percentage (.513) in five years. But he’s most proud of the work he’s put in on the defensive side.

Read more:Dodgers overcome Roki Sasaki's poor performance to rout Padres

“I felt like I would show flashes of this, but never the consistency,” Muncy said. “And so to be able to just do it on the consistent daily basis that I’ve been doing this year, that’s easily what I’m most proud of.”

Now, with that well-rounded body of work, he’s in position to claim the third All-Star selection of his career and first since 2021.

Muncy entered Stage 2 of All-Star fan voting this week as the favorite to claim the starting nod at third base, up against fellow finalist Alec Bohm. But voting totals reset, adding some unpredictability to the process. The All-Star starters are set to be revealed Saturday at 4:30 p.m. on Fox.

“In total, the player, the defense, the hitting, the slugging, I think this is the best version of Max,” manager Dave Roberts said. “I’m so happy that he’s leading the All-Star voting.”

Not only is this shaping up to be Muncy’s best offensive season since 2021, it’s the best defensive season of his career, regardless of position.

Entering this weekend’s series against the Padres, he had a fielding run value of plus-five runs, tied with the Giants’ Matt Chapman for the highest mark among third basemen, according to Statcast.

“He’s always been a hitter,” first-base/infield coach Chris Woodward told The Times. “And I think he took it upon himself to say, ‘I’m going to prove to everybody that I’m a really good defensive player,’ which he has been in his time here, but he’s just never had the opportunity to play one position.”

Though Muncy is in his 11th major-league season, and has played all around the infield for most of it, 2022 marked his first season making the majority of his appearances at third base. And 2023 was his first season moving there full time.

He was also limited by injuries in that span. For years, he still felt the effects of the elbow injury he suffered toward the end of 2021. And he strained his right oblique in each of the last two seasons.

“Third base was just a new position for me, and it just took time to learn it,” Muncy said. “And so just trying to get my work to translate into the game is a tough thing to do, and that’s kind of the secret to every aspect of baseball.”

Read more:Dodgers let Charlie Barnes get shelled while they prepare for the Padres

Each infield position is unique, with its own quirks in footwork, angles and timing. Each has plays — like a slow-roller up the third baseline that requires a quick throw across the diamond — that no other position will encounter.

“When a righty gets around the ball, it comes off the bat a lot different than when a lefty gets around the ball,” Muncy said. “And it’s weird how that works, and it’s hard to explain, but that’s just the way it is.”

For much of Muncy’s baseball life he played on the right side of the infield, fielding pull-side contact from left-handed hitters and opposite-field contact from right-handed hitters. That was second nature.

“You have to completely flip that,” Muncy said of playing third base, “and understand which way it’s going to bounce, how it’s going to bounce, how it’s going to get to you. It just took years of experience to finally get to that point.”

Woodward has always been impressed by Muncy’s agility, surprised when the Dodgers first promoted him in 2018 (as he returned to the big-leagues for the first time since being released by the A’s the previous spring) and by how he moved at second base, despite an atypical build for a middle infielder.

Now, after an offseason with a new diet and training program, he may have leveled up that part of his game — even at 35 years old.

“In the past it was a good first step, and he couldn’t sustain his speed,” Woodward said. “And this year I think he can sustain the speed through the ball.”

Said Muncy: “I’m still beating the age curve for now.”

Woodward also noted how good Muncy is at staying on top of the mental side of the game, knowing how specific pitches to different types of hitters should change his positioning. That, along with regular communication, are some of the details that make the Dodgers infield look like it’s moving as a unit — or, as Woodward put it, an “NFL defense” because of the way they swarm to the ball.

The Dodgers’ infield defense as a whole has improved even from last season (No. 6 in fielding run value) to sit in the No. 3 spot in the majors (plus-17 runs) a little past the halfway point of the season.

Read more:Dave Roberts gets his 1,000th win as manager in Dodgers' victory over Athletics

Muncy unlocking even more potential in the hot corner is a big part of the Dodgers raising their defensive ceiling. That’s helped the Dodgers, who own the best record in the majors, create separation in the standings. But it’ll be even more vital in the postseason, when the margin for error is at its thinnest.

In All-Star voting, defense won’t be the determining factor. Muncy’s increased power at the plate is the far flashier aspect of his case to start the Midsummer Classic. But a well-rounded resume doesn’t hurt.

Muncy can picture it: his three children — Sophie Kate, who turns 5 this month, Wyatt James, 3, and Macie Grace, who was born in January — taking in All-Star weekend in Philadelphia, watching their dad represent the National League.

“Being able to have my kids experience the whole ordeal with me would mean everything to me,” Muncy said. “My oldest is kind of old enough now to remember these types of things, and so I think it’d be really special to just share that moment with them.”

Sign up for more Dodgers news with Dodgers Dugout. Delivered at the start of each series.

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

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The Milwaukee Brewers are sizable -155 favorites in their series opener against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

With Kyle Harrison on the mound, my Brewers vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks are backing the Brew Crew to pick up a low-scoring victory.

Who will win Brewers vs Diamondbacks today: Milwaukee Brewers (-155)

Kyle Harrison gives the Milwaukee Brewers a pitching advantage almost every time on the bump. His consistency has been almost shocking, with the talented lefty conceding more than two earned runs once all season – in an extreme hitter-friendly park against the Athletics.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are excellent against lefties and yet it likely won’t matter. Harrison has allowed two or less in five of six games vs. Top-10 teams in OPS against lefties.

The Brewers rank fifth in wOBA vs. righties and Jose Cabrera’s indicators are worse than his counting stats. Harrison should get run support.

Back Milwaukee to -165.

COVERS INTEL:The Brewers own a 35-22 record vs. right-handed starting pitchers, trailing only the Dodgers.

Brewers vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Under 9.0 (-120)

Harrison ranks in the 93rd percentile in Pitcher Run Value and has held opponents to two or less in 14 of 15 starts. 

He has a solid, right-handed heavy bullpen behind him. That is important as the Diamondbacks are much more potent against left-handed pitching.

The Brewers are well-equipped to slow the Diamondbacks down. They will likely need a ceiling offensive performance to push this total Over the number, and we haven’t seen that as often of late – Milwaukee is tied for 20th in runs scored over the past two weeks.

Play the Under to -130.

Brewers vs Diamondbacks weather

Arizona plays in a rarely opened dome so the weather has little to no impact.

Brewers vs Diamondbacks odds

• Moneyline: Brewers -155 | Diamondbacks +135
• Run line: Brewers -1.5 (+105) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-125)
• Over/Under: Over 9.0 (+100) | Under 9.0 (-120)

Brewers vs Diamondbacks trend

Milwaukee has hit the moneyline in 34 of the last 50 games (+12.05 units, 16% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Diamondbacks.

How to watch Brewers vs Diamondbacks and game info

Brewers vs Diamondbacks latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Among a flurry of moves the New York Yankees made Thursday involving the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders, one jumped off the page:

Right-handed pitcher Carlos Lagrange placed on the seven-day injured list.

Lagrange is the Yankees’ No. 4-ranked prospect according to MLB Pipeline. He has spent the last month transitioning from the starting rotation to the bullpen with New York considering him as a possible big-league relief addition. Now, that has been put on hold with his trip to the IL.

Various reports indicate that Lagrange is dealing with a shoulder injury and set for an MRI. But after Thursday’s game against the Norfolk Tides at PNC Field in Pennsylvania, RailRiders manager Shelley Duncan said he didn’t think it was anything serious.

“With a guy like Lagrange, anything pops up, you’re protective of the guy,” Duncan said. “I don’t know the details, the little ones. But it’s nothing alarming.”

During the first two months of the season, Lagrange made 11 starts and had an 0-3 record with a 4.41 ERA]. He allowed 25 runs (24 earned) and 40 hits in 49 innings with 25 walks and 63 strikeouts. He impressed with a fastball that could reach 100 mph.

Lagrange was moved to the bullpen in June and the process of making him a reliever began. He earned his first Triple-A win at Syracuse on June 3rd, pitching four shutout franes with one hit, two walks, and seven strikeouts. He notched his first Triple-A save at Indianapolis on June 25th, working the final 1.1 innings and allowing one hit with two strikeouts.

However, in his last relief outing, also at Indianapolis on June 28th, Lagrange entered the game in the bottom of the seventh inning and the RailRiders leading, 4-1. He recorded just two outs and gave up five runs and four hits with two walks and one strikeout and took the loss, 6-5.

In seven relief appearances, Lagrange was 1-1 with one save and a 5.02 ERA. He allowed 12 runs (eight earned) and 13 hits in 14.1 innings with 8 walks and 20 strikeouts. Overall this season, he is 1-4 with a 4.55 ERA and 83 strikeouts in 63.1 innings. That K total ranks fifth in the International League.

Throughout the month, the Yankees and RailRiders were careful to space out Lagrange’s appearances. He pitched June 3rd, June 9th, June 14th, June 18th, June 21st, June 25th, and then June 28th. Duncan wasn’t sure if that contributed at all to his injury.

“It could be, but we don’t know,” Duncan said. “I’m sure it’s some we’ll dig into. When you transition from starter to bullpen, bullpen to starter, you have a different routine, different things. But we don’t know. We’ll look into it.”

Duncan also provided an update days earlier on the status of infielder George Lombard Jr. The Yankees’ top prospect has been on the injured list since June 18th. During a game June 16th in Columbus, he reached for a throw into a sliding runner on a stolen base attempt and suffered two sprained fingers on his left (catching) hand.

“It’s day to day,” Duncan said. “It’s nothing bad, but we don’t want to bring him back when it’s still sore and lingering. We want to bring him back when he’s 100 percent. So we’re taking our time with that and letting him go at his own pace.”

It remains to be seen how the injuries to Lagrange and Lombard will affect their status for the All-Star Futures Game on July 12th at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. Both players were selected to the American League squad on Wednesday.

Elmer Rodríguez, the Yankees’ No. 2 prospect, had one of his best outings of the season Thursday night at PNC Field. He threw 6.1 quality innings and allowed three runs on eight hits with two walks and six strikeouts. He threw 93 pitches, 60 for strikes. Backed by four home runs, he earned the win, 7-3.

“I felt good from the start. I felt like I was attacking the hitters, comfortable throwing every single pitch,” Rodríguez said. “Obviously they got some hits and some tough spots, I kept attacking and feel like I got some good results.”

With two outs in the top of the third, Norfolk put together three consecutive singles to score its first run. The first two hits were slow rollers that found holes before Heston Kjerstad lined a hit to center field to knock in Enrique Bradfield Jr. and make it 3-1. But Kjerstad was thrown out trying to advance to second on the play to end the inning.

In the top of the sixth, Kjerstad hit the first pitch from Rodríguez out to center field for a home run to cut the Tides deficit to 3-2. Rodríguez then walked Ryan Noda with one out and allowed a two-out single to Mike Siani. But he came back and struck out Silas Ardoin on three pitches to end the threat.

“That leadoff home run in the sixth, sometimes you have to tip your cap to the hitters,” Duncan said. “That’s not easy to do. He’s aggressive in the strike zone first pitch, doing what we wanted to do to get ahead and he got a good piece of wood on it. It happens.

“But if you look at (Rodríguez’s) performance overall, he was attacking the strike zone, finishing hitters when he got to two strikes. That’s a recipe for success right there. He had good command of his fastballl tonight, breaking balls were pretty nasty. Excellent finishing pitches tonight. That was one of the best performances we’ve seen out of him, stuff-wise and command matched together. He had a real good outing.”

Rodríguez improved to 4-3 with a 2.93 ERA.

As we inch closer to the All-Star Break, we continue our 40-year anniversary of the game’s 57th Summer Installment which took place at the iconic Houston Astrodome on July 15th, 1986, in front of a capacity crowd of 45,774.    

Don Aase would come on for the American League and notch the save on this night.    Don reflects with us exclusively at The Crawfish Boxes.   

Q:  I went back and watched this game in its entirety, and it appears that Willie Hernandez thinks that he’s actually going in to close out the game when manager Dick Howser makes the move.  What happened there exactly?    

A:  Yeah, it was funny.  Willie went to go running in there and then he stopped, dead in his tracks. It was mix up, kind of strange there, but I went in and did the job.

Q:  So, you earn the save in your only All-Star appearance.  What did that night at the Astrodome mean to you personally?

A:  Oh man, that was something that you can only dream about.  I couldn’t believe I got a save in that situation.   I don’t know if anything can ever beat that feeling.  That was a high point of my career.    

Q:  What did you think of Roger Clemens outing that night?  He had a little extra going on being back home and it being his first ever ASG appearance.  

A:  He had it going no doubt.  You know, all of the pitching was really good.  I remember Fernando also doing his thing.  It was just a great thing to watch really, and it got extra exciting towards the end.    

Q:  You were on fire to get there.  You posted 23 saves in the first half of the 1986 campaign and the O’s weren’t even a legit contender that season.  What do you remember most about that season?    

A:  We were in a ton of games early on and they were all close and we started off well and I was closing games it felt like daily.   We tailed off because I hurt my back and I had to miss a few weeks.   I still think about that and the season we could’ve had.

Q:  What do you think about the closers today?

A:  It’s just really amazing how big and strong these guys are now.  This is coming from somebody who spends most of his time these days watching the grandkids, but it’s impressive seeing how hard everyone throws these days.  It seems like everyone today throws it 10 mph faster than we did.

Happy Friday A’s fans,

Earlier this week, the Athletics began a six-game stretch at home by losing two of three to the two-time defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers. Tonight, they welcome the Miami Marlins for the opener of a three-game series. The Marlins, who have an even lower payroll than the A’s, posted an MLB-best 20-6 record in June to jump into the National League Wild Card picture.

Miami’s pitching staff, which has the 11th best ERA in the sport, played a major role in the club’s stellar performance over the past few weeks. While the A’s will not have to face standout right-hander Max Meyer, they’ll still draw the Marlins’ Dominican duo of Sandy Alcántara and Eury Pérez on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

Meanwhile, only the Colorado Rockies have a higher ERA and have given up more runs than the Athletics’ much-maligned pitching staff. Yes, the team is playing in a hitter-friendly minor league park for a second straight season. However, that does not change the fact that these are major-league pitchers league pitchers who have earned their way to baseball’s highest level. As a result, they should be capable of making the necessary adjustments to limit the damage in a hitter-friendly environment.

Currently, it seems like the Athletics can only count on J.T. Ginn and Gage Jump to consistently deliver quality starts. On Wednesday night, Ginn shut down the Dodgers for six innings, helping his team avoid the series sweep.

Two nights prior, Jump endured his first rough outing against a Dodgers’ lineup loaded with star power, so the result was not entirely surprising. The promising rookie left-hander will look to bounce back in Sunday’s homestand finale. Before that, the A’s will turn to right-handers Jack Perkins and Aaron Civale to start tonight and tomorrow night.

Offensively, the Marlins are the opposite of the Athletics. Miami relies on speed to manufacture runs, leading the majors with 94 stolen bases this season. In contrast, the A’s have some speed, most notably center fielder Henry Bolte, but their offense is still driven primarily by the long ball.

The Marlins won’t make it easy, but there would be no better way for the Athletics to celebrate the Fourth of July than by putting their June struggles behind them and taking the series.

A’s Coverage:

• Three Things To Watch For The Athletics In July
• Julyeball Scout Report As Hopes, Like The Sun, Sink Slowly In The West
• Thoughts And Well Wishes For A’s Prospect Ryan Lasko
• A’s Take Series Finale, Beat Dodgers 7-1
• Dodgers Overwhelm A’s Once Again
• A’s roster moves: Massive Shakeup
• A’s To Trade Brett Harris To Red Sox
• It’s Harder To Win When You Don’t Understand Your Own Personnel
• Fun Parallels To 2012 Emerging
• What Kade Morris’ Role Will Look Like for A’s in Future
• Some Easy Fixes Rocket Science Aren’t
• Athletics’ Devin Taylor Emerges As All-Around Talent
• From celebratory pool dip to the A’s, Meneses’ journey back to Majors a memorable one
• Athletics Could Deal Hottest Triple-A Bat This Summer
• Status Report: Uncertainty Persists In 5 Places On The Diamond

MLB News and Interest:

• How will the logjam in AL postseason race impact Trade Deadline?
• MLB 2026: Player every team should trade or trade for in July
• MLB’s Labor Philosophy: A Reader’s Guide
• The Draft Top 250 is out! For the 1st time all year, there’s a new No. 1
• The Draft is just over a week away! Find out if the landscape has changed with our latest mock
• Rangers’ Corey Seager back on IL with lower back inflammation
• Red Sox Place Connelly Early On Injured List
• 2026 All-Star Futures Game rosters revealed
• Mets owner says changes need to be made, but Stearns is staying
• MLBPA seeks larger roster sizes, demotion protection in proposal
• Trade rumors: Skubal, Angels, Yankees, starting pitchers
• Dodgers’ Dave Roberts fastest manager to reach 1,000 career wins
• Cavalli, Contreras receive 7-game suspensions after benches-clearing incident
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

Ryan Lasko injury update:

Funny exchange between these two A’s players. Lawrence Butler would greatly benefit from listening to Shea Langeliers’ advice as Butler’s batting average is still below the Mendoza line.

The American League West remains up in the air with only the Los Angeles Angels out of the divisional race at this point in the season.

Injuries have taken a toll on this team and could be one reason behind its June swoon. The return of several key players over the next two months could fuel a rise back up the standings.

It’s been a dream of a past week for Owen Carey, who is showing power we’ve never seen from him before while maintaining an lengthening hitting streak. The pitching on the minor league side also had much intrigue, with Garrett Baumann pitching in Gwinnett and Lucas Braun posting his best start of the season for Columbus. Add in yet another home run from Alex Lodise and the day was full of exciting moments and big performances.

(42-41) Gwinnett Stripers 3, (35-49) Durham Bulls 6

Box Score

Statcast

• DaShawn Kiersey Jr., RF: 3-5, 2B, .262/.311/.373
• Garrett Baumann, SP: 5 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 11.49 ERA

Even with a rough start from Garrett Baumann and a lackluster performance by the offense the Stripers still had a sniff of a chance to steal this game late, but always came up just short with two-out RBI chances. The Stripers left 11 men on base in this game, but that doesn’t fully encapsulate that eight of those came in just the final three innings of this game. With the bases loaded in the eighth inning the Stripers, by some miracle, had a chance to tie the game, but Jair Camargo flew out lazily to end that opportunity. An error in the ninth inning put Adam Zebrowski on base, kicking off a rally that saw the Stripers fall tantalizingly short. DaShawn Kiersey hit a bouncer off of the back of the pitcher that would go for a single, but as the ball trickled into left field Zebrowski tried to score from second and a combination of his sub-20 speed and an admittedly impressive play from Carson Williams to get to the ball in shallow left field saw Zebrowski cut down trying to score. It probably wasn’t smart to send him, and after a single, a hit batter, and a walk scored Kiersey and left the bases loaded with two outs it seemed even worse in retrospect. Jose Azocar finished off the game with a grounder straight at Williams that would have been a routine double play if there were only one out, stranding the bases loaded for the second straight inning.

All six of the runs Garrett Baumann allowed in this game were driven in via home runs, which is an issue that has exploded over the past three outings for him. Baumann allowed seven home runs in his first 12 starts this season (11 COL, 1 GWN) but in the past three outings has allowed eight of them. While the Bulls hitters took advantage of the mistakes Baumann made and he left a few too many pitches over the plate, he didn’t really pitch that poorly. He made good pitches with his splitter, located his fastball at the top of strike zone fairly consistently, and mixed his pitches well. He ran out of steam a bit in the final inning which contributed to the middle-middle fastball that got hit for his third home run, but overall he wasn’t glaringly bad in any particular way. He got beat a few times by hitters making good swings, but this was not nearly on the level of his prior two starts when he was making too many mistakes with his command. He looked better in this outing even if the results weren’t there, and if he comes out in future outings and pitches like that the results should follow.

Swing and Misses

Garrett Baumann – 16

Connor Thomas – 5

(33-40) Columbus Clingstones 0, (45-33) Knoxville Smokies 1

Box Score

• Patrick Clohisy, CF: 0-3, BB, .264/.337/.448
• Lucas Braun, SP: 8 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, 3.30 ERA

With the run environment up across minor league baseball there haven’t been too many of these true pitchers’ duels, but we got one in Tennessee on Thursday night and it was a masterpiece from Lucas Braun. It didn’t immediately look like it was going to be one of those nights for Braun. He struggled with his command to the first couple of hitters and gave up hard contact, including throwing a sinker middle-middle in a 2-0 count that got hit off of the wall in the deepest part of the park for a double. He fell behind 3-1 to the next guy before getting him to pop out and then got a ground out on a slider he hung, but after catching a series of breaks he locked in and started putting in good work. He dialed the slider in with a swinging strikeout to end the second inning, then started to dot the fastball up, slider down sequence to great success. That was the formula for the rest of the game, and his combination of being on with his command and the Smokies being willing to chase on sliders below the zone gave him the tools to get through eight scoreless innings.

The Smokies managed to match Braun with zeroes, and the Clingstones running up strikeouts undid the advantage they had with getting runners on base. Heading into the bottom of the ninth inning Columbus had gotten ten runners on base to the Smokies two, but thanks to strikeouts in key moments with runners in scoring position and a couple of outs on the basepaths they never managed to push anyone home. Shay Schanaman had an unfortunate bit of luck when he jammed the leadoff hitter but gave up a single on a slow roller to third base, but he also struggled to throw strikes. He walked two hitters to load the bases up with only one out in the inning, then gave up a walkoff single on a hard hit ball that went off of the glove of Jordan Groshans at third base.

Swing and Misses

Lucas Braun – 16

Shay Schanaman – 3

(38-38) Rome Emperors 8, (28-49) Jersey Shore BlueClaws 4

Box Score

• Tate Southisene, SS: 1-4, 2B, BB, .205/.340/.361
• John Gil, 2B: 1-4, BB, .263/.357/.418
• Eric Hartman, LF: 0-3, 2 BB, .291/.361/.557
• Owen Carey, DH: 1-4, HR, BB, .269/.336/.471
• Zach Royse, SP: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 4.96 ERA

The Owen Carey fan club is eating well these days. Carey only had one hit in this game to extend his hitting streak to nine games, but he did it in a big way with a missile for a home run in the fifth inning. Carey has three home runs in his past four games with that hit, and already has beaten his total for home runs last season in just 37 games. Carey is really making solid contact in the air on the pull side early in this season, which was the biggest criticism you could have of him last season. He is maintaining his ability to hit hard line drives all over the field and make contact at a high rate while adding to his power output, and the Emperors have yet another breakout candidate making waves for them. Overall this offensive performance was mostly not driven by the elite-tier prospects for the Braves, though they’ll certainly be happy to see Dixon Williams add another to his total. Williams had a no-doubt shot in the first inning to put Rome up 3-0, banging the ball off of a billboard well past the fence in left field. Williams has homered in two straight games, and after that nasty slump he has really been crushing the ball over his past 15 games. He has five home runs and a .321/.415/.661 slash line during that timeframe, though his poor contact rates do remain a red flag.

Zach Royse had a couple of poor games in his adjustment to High-A, where he was not missing bats at the rate he was in Single-A, but this game was a quick reversal of trends as he looked strong once again. Royse’s slider was on full display as he kept going back to it until each individual hitter proved they could hit it, and some of the guys in the lineup never showed that they could. Royse’s only issue in the game is that he had a whole lot more trouble commanding his fastball, but he was able to work around that the first time through the order. The next time through the BlueClaws had a better feel for him and his velocity really started to drop off, so the earlier success he had at getting whiffs didn’t carry over. Royse did enough and his slider was good enough that Jersey Shore never got comfortable in the game, but the velocity dip and the command of his fastball are more fuel to the opinion that Royse’s future is likely in the bullpen. The quality of that slider is good enough to carry a major league middle relief pitcher’s career, but there’s certainly no reason to move him out of the starting role just yet even if it’s just to give him extra reps.

Swing and Misses 

Zach Royse – 15

Jacob Kroeger – 5

(44-34) Augusta GreenJackets 10, (30-47) Salem RidgeYaks

Box Score

• Luis Guanipa, CF: 2-5, 2B, 5 RBI, .320/.378/.483
• Conor Essenburg, RF: 0-5, .253/.385/.442
• Alex Lodise, SS: 2-5, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, .254/.342/.369
• Jeremy Reyes, SP: 4.2 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 3.25 ERA

It was a disappointing outcome for the GreenJackets on Thursday night, but they still received big contributions from the top prospects in the lineup, especially from Alex Lodise. Lodise has yet again hit a spell where the strikeouts are piling up — he has nine over the past six games — but it hasn’t slowed down his power production one bit. He hit his 16th home run of the season and eighth over the past 14 games while adding in a double. Most of the damage Lodise has done during this hot streak has come with him lighting up the lower half of the strike zone, but this time he took a fastball in the upper half and hit it the other way. Early in this game Augusta went on a run at the plate that allowed them to open up a 6-1 lead, and a big part of that came courtesy of the Carolina League batting leader Luis Guanipa. With the bases loaded in the second inning Guanipa shot an inside sinker into the opposite gap for a bases-clearing double, netting him the first three of five RBI on the day. In another bases-loaded chance in the fifth inning Guanipa again came through with an opposite field single, helping Augusta open up a lead of 9-6 that would also eventually get blown by the pitching staff. While Guanipa has maintained his contact numbers throughout this season he hasn’t seen the home run power that he showed earlier in the season and that double in the first inning is an example of a pitch we were seeing him drive to the pull side in April and May. Guanipa’s bat speed makes it so he tends to never get beaten on the inner half, but he has shown a tendency to drift back towards getting his front foot down a bit late and shooting pitches the opposite way, which has robbed him of some of the impact he showed in the early months. Conor Essenburg added an 0-5 performance to his recent struggles, and has been locked in his worst stretch of the season for the past couple of series.

With his recent demotion you would hope for better results from Jeremy Reyes, but right now what Reyes is putting on the field is concerning for his future. His velocity is down significantly and he just doesn’t have the command to overcome that limitation, and even though his slider has had success generating whiffs at the Single-A level there just isn’t much indication of growth from him. Should the velocity return to his baseline there is a chance for him to fit in as a relief arm, but the electric potential he showed last season has not been there at all in 2026. He’s getting hit hard right now in addition to not being able to throw strikes consistently, and it’s hard to see that changing anytime soon when his sweeper is the only thing showing anything right now and that’s a pitch he can’t land near the strike zone consistently.

Swing and Misses

Jeremy Reyes – 13

Kendy Richard – 6

The Orioles are rapidly approaching the point where they need to go on a stretch of solid baseball to re-establish themselves as real contenders for the wild card. Between now and the All-Star break is the time where they are going to need to do it. Inching along at 5-4 might drag it out for longer. Worse comes close to putting them out of the picture entirely.

With this in front of them, they are in Cincinnati to match up for three games with the Reds over Independence Day weekend. The Reds had themselves an excellent April and have been on a bad run since, dropping a 10-17 May before a 9-17 June, with one game played and lost so far in July. It’s not too hard to figure out their problem. They’re a bad hitting team, mustering just a .228/.309/.389 batting line for the season. This quartet is carrying the offense: Elly Da La Cruz, Sal Stewart, JJ Bleday, and Nathaniel Lowe. The rest of the guys are in “slightly worse than Leody Taveras” territory.

Add to that a pitching staff that’s bottom 10 for both starter and reliever ERA and that’s a tough way to be a contender. The rotation is bad in spite of 23-year-old righty Chase Burns showing as a genuine Cy Young contender so far this season. Burns entered Thursday with a 2.36 ERA in 14 starts. Unless something weird happens, Burns won’t face the Orioles in this series because he pitched against the Brewers on Thursday. Three guys in the Reds rotation have an ERA over 5 and their notional closer has an ERA over 6. That’s a tough recipe for contention.

The Orioles have to actually play better than the Reds for any of this stuff to matter. We’ve seen quite recently as they faced the otherwise-woeful Angels that they can blow it against an obviously bad team. The Reds bring a comparable record to the Orioles into this series, so it’s not like the O’s are even “supposed” to be better than these guys. They’re in the same muck, just in different leagues. A three-game series means one of these teams is guaranteed to exit it feeling a little better about themselves. If it’s not the Orioles, the available path back to contention will have shrunk yet again.

Here’s how they’re matching up in each game of the series.

Friday: 7:10pm Eastern

• BAL starter: Trevor Rogers – 4.99 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.311 WHIP in 15 games
• CIN starter: Brady Singer – 5.12 ERA, 5.82 FIP, 1.539 WHIP in 16 games

Rogers is fresh off a month of June where, across five starts, he pitched like it was last year again. Opponents hit to just a .510 OPS off of him in those games and he had a 2.05 ERA. Yeah, that will play. However, though the Reds have a disappointing offense, they are much better against lefties than righties, with a .758 OPS against southpaws. It seems that their righty batters are actually hitting lefties. Some guys on the Orioles should try out that concept.

Singer pitched 169.2 innings a season ago and allowed 19 home runs. He’s already allowed 19 homers so far this season in not even half as many innings. It’s not only homers that are his problem. Batters are hitting .294 against Singer. He is also coming off of an improved June, though, so like Rogers, the overall season number isn’t impressive but there’s a trajectory of improvement. Also, Singers has a 3.25 ERA at home, so that tilts in his favor.

Saturday: 7:10pm Eastern

• BAL starter: Brandon Young – 3.11 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 1.300 WHIP in 13 games
• CIN starter: Hunter Greene (season debut after spring training surgery for bone chips in elbow)

Elsewhere on the site, I’ve noted within recent days that the only thing standing between the Orioles and complete disaster this season has been Young. The team is 10-3 in his starts and the way he’s pitched has had a lot to do with that being the case. It’s quite a stark contrast to the results he got in his first introduction to the majors last year. We have to hope that maybe Trey Gibson can find something like this after a similarly-unimpressive set of debut starts. They are going to need Young to keep pitching well.

Greene was one of the game’s great young starting pitchers in each of the past two seasons. He hasn’t had the opportunity to show whether he can continue that yet this year due to that spring training arthroscopic surgery. He destroyed Triple-A batters over his rehab outings, finishing with a 6.1 inning start that saw him throw 82 pitches. Maybe the Reds won’t push him too hard towards 100 pitches, and if so, maybe the Orioles hitters can work some counts and take advantage of this to get into that bullpen.

Sunday: 1:05pm Eastern

• BAL starter: Kyle Bradish – 3.77 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 1.452 WHIP in 17 games
• CIN starter: Nick Lodolo – 5.05 ERA, 5.30 FIP, 1.471 WHIP in 10 games

Note: This game will be televised only on Peacock. If you do not have access to Peacock, you will not have access to the video broadcast.

In the final game of this series, the Orioles batters will finally have to face a left-handed starting pitcher. Believe it or not, the O’s have rebounded from their horrible early record against lefty pitchers, and currently sit with a 10-15 record when facing a southpaw. That’s still bad, it’s just better than it was; they’ve gone better than .500 against lefties after losing the first several.

Lodolo has not been a good lefty this year, but as we know, that doesn’t matter for the Orioles offense. They will stink against anyone, any time, anywhere. They will make sure that you never doubt their ability to do this.

Is Bradish back or not? He’s been see-sawing between pre-surgery great results and rough ones, including his most recent start where he walked five guys in only four innings against the Nationals. Three of Bradish’s five June starts saw him pitch just four innings, and he gave up a total of 14 runs in those three starts. He was also great in two other starts, allowing just one run in 15.2 innings. Which will show against the Reds on Sunday? Your guess is as good as mine.

**

What do you think? Can the Orioles look like a good team in this series or not? Stay cool, wherever you are!

Good morning everyone and happy Friday!

Last night, the Mariners completed a sweep of the Angels in a 1-0 series finale win thanks to another dominant performance from Bryce Miller, who took a no-hitter into the 7th inning.

Now the question becomes: Do you think Miller has done enough in his limited time to earn an All-Star Game nod?

In Mariners news…

• Julio Rodríguez is set to be evaluated today after he was removed from last night’s game when he was hit in the back of the helmet by a throw.
• As Brendan Donovan progresses through his injury rehab, he’s receiving help from an unusual source — Ichiro.
• Travis Sawchik dug into the numbers to figure out what’s going on with Cal Raleigh this year.

Around the league…

• Major League Baseball issued suspensions to Cade Cavalli (7 games), Miles Mikolas (5 games), Willson Contreras (7 games), and Nate Eaton (3 games) for their roles in Tuesday’s brawl between the Nationals and Red Sox.
• Brent Stecker at Seattle Sports covered the local angle of the MLB Futures Game with Seattle-native Astros prospect Xavier Neyens being named to the American League squad at just 19 years old.
• Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic made his predictions for this year’s All-Star Game rosters. ($) The rosters will be unveiled on Saturday afternoon at 4:30pm PT.
• Jay Jaffe at Fangraphs outlined the worst defensive situations among playoff contenders.
• Craig Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus critiqued the league’s approach to marketing their CBA proposals to the greater public.
• That’s former Mariner Brett de Geus to you!