It was a cool morning in Jupiter, Florida, this past February, and as was his custom, Brant Brown had arrived at the Cardinals training facility early enough to get in a workout before the chaos of spring training ensued. As Brown was about to enter the team’s redesigned weight room, he heard a faint thud in the distance. He stopped to listen and there it was again… An uneasy feeling washed over Brown as he set down his gym bag and cautiously made his way toward the mysterious sound. It seemed to be coming from the batting cages. As he got closer, the sound got louder and more distinct. Wishhhhhh, thud…. Then about 8 seconds of silence and another wishhhhh, thud.
As Brown turned the corner, he was relieved to see the familiar face of Ivan Herrera standing in the batting cages facing the pitching machine. Before Brown could alert Herrera to his presence, another pitch was whistling toward Ivan. To Brown’s shock and dismay, the ball, traveling at over 90 MPH, slammed into his star pupil’s shoulder, producing that thud sound that had been echoing through the abandoned training facility.
“Ivan!” Brown shouted. “Are you ok, man?”
Herrera, obviously thinking he was alone, startled at the sight of the still sleepy bald man rushing toward him. “Oh, hey, coach,” he said, once he recognized it was Brown who was the cause of the interruption. “I didn’t hear you coming. Just trying to get some work in before the boys get here.”
Brown, relieved that Herrera was ok, said, “My bad, I didn’t mean to sneak up on you. You aren’t cleared for BP yet. If Oli and the training staff find you in here, you are gonna be in big trouble!” It was then that Brown had a chilling realization… Herrera wasn’t even holding a bat and did not seem to have even brought one with him to the cages. Brown felt a cold shiver run up his spine and instinctually took a step backward, wanting to put a little distance between himself and the now slightly menacing-looking slugger.
“Are you in here practicing letting pitches hit you?” Brown asked, incredulous.
Herrera stood silently for a moment like he was trying to think of a way out of this conversation. The seconds ticked by and finally, Herrera spoke. “Not practicing exactly… I…. I enjoy getting hit by pitches.” Seeing the look of confusion and concern on his coach’s face, Herrera continued. “When I was a kid, all my friends wanted to be major league baseball players. Some dreamed of hitting a walk-off home run in the World Series. Some dreamed of throwing no-hitters. All of them wanted to be stars in the big leagues. I never cared about any of that. I loved, and I mean, LOVED, getting hit by pitches. It didn’t matter if it was a fastball, slider, curveball, whatever. The feeling of getting a free base and knowing that my wRC+ was going up was all I thought about. The only reason I even wanted to keep playing baseball was the thought that one day I could get hit by the fastest fastballs and the wickedest breaking balls in the world…”
Herrera’s voice trailed off and Brown noticed that tears had started to form in his eyes… Tears of joy. Herrera had a far-off look in his eyes as he quietly wept, thinking about all the baseballs that would hit him in the upcoming season.
Brown was so shaken by the conversation that he could not formulate a response. He slowly turned and started walking back to the gym. As he left, he heard that sound again. Wishhhh, THUD.
Ok, now that I have that out of my system, let’s get to the nonfiction portion of today’s program.
Ivan Herrera is getting hit by pitches at an absurd rate. His 22 HBPs is six more than the next highest player in baseball. He is currently on pace for 45 HBPs, which would place him fifth all-time and second since 1900. The Cardinals’ record is 31 (as a reminder it is still June). Herrera’s mark is already the tenth most in a single season for any Cardinals player.
The major league record for hit-by-pitches in a season is 51, set in 1886 by Hughie Jennings, and the post-1900 record is 50 by Ron Hunt of the Montreal Expos in 1971. While these lofty totals may be out of reach, Herrera is getting hit A LOT.
What is the impact of Ivan’s hit-by-pitches on his production? Currently, his xwOBA of .371 ranks 24th in baseball. If you were to normalize his HBP rate to the league average, it would drop to .356, which would rank 44th in MLB.
Setting aside Herrera’s other wonderful qualities as a ballplayer and a human being, his willingness to endure this battering makes him one of my favorite players. As a fan, it is enraging to watch a batter dance out of the way of a pitch with the game on the line and the team badly needing a baserunner. Now, this isn’t a moral judgment against players who make more of an effort to avoid projectiles hurled at their bodies. Obviously, beyond the pain, getting hit introduces the risk of injury, so it is not a free lunch. I am not saying that my fondness for players who are willing to “wear it” is totally rational, but it is what it is.
Appreciating the fact that Ivan gets hit so often is not sufficient. I want to know if there is an obvious reason as to why he is drawing so many HBPs. Perhaps he crowds the plate more than normal? Are pitchers throwing him an inordinate amount of pitches inside? Or maybe something with his exaggerated stance and stride toward the pitcher makes it harder for him to get out of the way?
Baseball Savant has some very granular data on batters’ positions in the box that you can play with here. Looking at this data, there are a few things to note. Herrera starts with the third most open stance of any right-handed batter in baseball at 48 degrees. As he loads, his front foot goes from the back chalk of the batter’s box to hovering over the front chalk closest to the plate and then he strides forward opening back up to become almost perfectly square to the pitcher. He is essentially diving toward the plate as the ball approaches. The combination of a high leg kick and momentum coming toward the plate could make it harder for him to back away from pitches running inside.
Baseball Savant also tracks batters’ distance from the plate defined by where each player’s center of gravity is while in their stance. On average, right-handed hitters stand 27.8 inches from the plate. Herrera is a little closer at 26.7. This is the 111th closest (out of 354 batters) among righties, so he crowds the plate a little but not in some outlier fashion. All things considered, Herrera’s setup and approach might have a little something to do with his HBP total, but it definitely isn’t the whole story.
What about how pitchers are attacking him? Is he simply being pitched inside at a ridiculous clip? Fortunately for us, there is a wealth of data available at Baseball Savant that breaks down the exact location of each pitch.
Location Matrix
This location matrix is from the catcher’s perspective so the left side is inside to a right-handed hitter. The Heart zone (1-9), as you would expect, are pitches in the middle of the plate. The Shadow zone (11-19) includes pitches just on or just off the plate. Chase and Waste are self-explanatory.
I pulled all pitches thrown to right-handed batters that were inside in the Shadow, Chase, and Waste zones. Ivan Herrera has seen the fourth most pitches of any right-handed batter in these zones so far this year. Here is how the top five rank with HBPs added for context.
20.5% of the pitches Herrera has seen this season have been in the inside zones compared to the leaguewide average of 16.2% (again, righties only). While Herrera has gotten more than his fair share of inside pitches, comparing his HBP totals to the other top-five players shows the stark contrast. Junior Caminero somehow avoiding a single HBP is truly impressive. He stands about 2.5 inches farther off the plate than Herrera, but his dodging ability is still truly remarkable.
All right, let’s go a level deeper and see which specific zones are hotspots for HBPs and if Herrera is just being pitched in those zones more aggressively. To do this, I looked at all 33,821 pitches that have been thrown in the inside zones to righties this year and calculated the percentage of pitches that resulted in the 576 HBPs that they absorbed. Here is what the breakdown looks like:
Percentage of pitches that hit batter
There are virtually no HBPs in the Shadow zone, although shoutout to Mike Trout who accounts for the .01% in the middle Shadow zone by virtue of being hit by a pitch that was actually a strike. In total, 14 HBPs have occurred in the Shadow zone. The Chase zone accounts for 135 HBPs with the majority coming on pitches up and in. As you would expect, the majority of hit batsmen are on pitches in the Waste zone where 427 have occurred.
Here is how Herrera stacks up.
Percentage of pitches that hit Ivan Herrera
I have included Ivan’s total HBPs by zone in parentheses. Like the rest of the league, he is racking up most of his HBPs on pitches up and in. He has not done anything heroic like leaning into the Shadow zone, but on wasted pitches inside, he is getting hit two to six times more frequently than the league average. Just to be sure, I checked the types of pitches he is being attacked with, and the mix is essentially in line with the rest of the league.
I will leave you with one statistic that quantifies just how much Ivan likes a free base. If you apply the league average HBP rate by zone to the number of pitches Ivan has seen in each zone, you get an expected HBP total of… 6.7. There you have it. Ivan Herrera is a certified lunatic.
