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Reynaldo López (3.50 ERA) is looking to add another win for the Atlanta Braves to this four-game series against the San Diego Padres. After a low-scoring win to kick off the series in yesterday’s matchup, the Braves will need to step up on offense if paired with a quality defense on the pitcher’s mound.

López has been a pretty consistent arm, despite getting stunned by the St. Louis Cardinals. It was the first time since June 4 that he allowed more than two runs in his outing. On the upside, his showings at home have been better.

As opposed to López’s opponent, Walker Buehler (5.36 ERA), his outings on the road have been less than subpar. In his last seven games, he’s given up a total of 24 runs and 15 walks, and has consistent trouble landing his pitches in the zone, resulting in hard contact from his opponents.

With the way Atlanta has been hitting the ball, they have a high probability of securing this win. They’re outscoring the Padres offense on a constant basis, and they’ve already built momentum with yesterday’s win.

Can they start a new streak with three in a row? Only one way to find out.

First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET.

Game Info

Game Time: Tuesday, July 21, 7:15 pm EDT

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

Watch: BravesVision, Gray TV

Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

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Let's dive into my favorite MLB player props, best bets, and MLB picks to attack on July 21.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Elly De La Cruz	Over 1.5 H/R/R	-117
Matt Olson	Over 1.5 total bases	+116
Griffin Conine	Over 1.5 H/R/R	+117

Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (-117)

Cincinnati Reds superstar Elly De La Cruz enters Tuesday’s matchup against Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo with an elite rating on Batters-Box, while carrying 100% arsenal coverage against Castillo’s entire pitch mix.

In 144 elite-rated games dating back over the last three seasons, De La Cruz has gone over this prop 55% of the time.

Across his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers, he owns a .370 batting average, .667 slugging percentage, 1.100 OPS, and .297 ISO, while generating a 60.9% hard hit rate and 8.7% barrel rate.

On the other side, Castillo has struggled against left-handed hitters lately. Over his last 30 left-handed hitters faced, they have produced a 50% hard hit rate, 12.5% barrel rate, and 58% elevation rate. Those hitters also own a .344 expected batting average and .645 expected slugging percentage.

I would play this down to -125 if I had to, or take his bases for plus money.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Reds.TV, Mainers.TV

Matt Olson Over 1.5 total bases (+116)

The pride of the Braves, Mr. Matt Olson, finds himself in a boom spot at the dish this evening against Padres right-hander Walker Buehler.

Olson enters Tuesday with one of the highest ratings on the slate over on Batters-Box, where he also carries an 83.5% arsenal coverage against Buehler’s entire pitch mix.

So far this season, in 17 elite ratings, Olson has gone over this prop 47% of the time, while leaving the yard nearly 30% of the time as well.

Across his last 60 at-bats against right-handed pitchers, he is generating nearly 53% hard hit and a 20% barrel rate. On top of that, he owns a 1.014 OPS and .392 ISO.

On the other side, Buehler has been getting crushed by left-handed hitters. Over his last 30 left-handed hitters faced, they have produced a 50% hard hit rate, 15% barrel rate, and 60% elevation rate. Those hitters also own a .527 xSLG and .263 xBA.

I would not pay juice for this prop, so look for the best price possible.

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: BravesVsn, SPA

Griffin Conine Over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (+117)

Mr. Marlin’s son, Griffin Conine, finds himself in a strong spot this evening against Astros starter Tatsuya Imai, who owns one of the worst pitcher ratings on the slate over on Batters-Box.

Imai has been getting lit up by left-handed hitters, allowing a 55% hard hit rate, 20% barrel rate, and 70% elevation rate. Those hitters also own a .446 xBA, .457 xSLG, and .498 xwOBA.

Conine has been on a tear over his last few games. In his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitchers, he owns a .310 BA, .759 SLG, 1.092 OPS, and .449 ISO, while generating a 50% hard hit rate and 16.7% barrel rate.

Conine also enters today with an elite rating while covering nearly 100% of Imai’s pitch mix. Getting an elite-rated hitter to surpass 1.5 HRR at plus money is always a steal. Do not pay juice for this one.

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SCHN, MIAM

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Yankees’ Tuesday night matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for 7:05 p.m., has been postponed due to inclement weather.

The game will be made up on Wednesday as part of a split doubleheader, with the first game at 1:05 p.m. and the second game at 7:05 p.m.

The Yankees had been scheduled to have Will Warren start on Tuesday night against Bubba Chandler, with Gerrit Cole then facing Mitch Keller on Wednesday.

The Yankees haven’t yet confirmed their plans, but it’s fair to think that Warren and Cole will pitch on Wednesday, in some order.

As the Detroit Tigers entered the All-Star break in 2026, they had salvaged what started out to be a terrible season, falling 16 games under .500 and 11.5 games behind the division lead. But since June 1st, they have been as good as any team in the league and pulled to within 4.5 games of a playoff spot as of Tuesday, and seem poised to challenge for a division title.

We have seen the Tigers go on a magical run and make the playoffs against all odds, and we’ve seen them make a historical collapse, blowing the biggest division lead ever blown in major league history. That’s just the past two seasons. But the bottom line is that they have themselves in contention, raising questions about whether they will try to trade the reigning two-time Cy Young winner, Tarki Skubal.

We have analyzed the cost of extending Skubal and come up with a starting point of at least $350 million over 8 years. That would be the highest contract ever given to a pitcher in terms of both total dollars and average annual salary.

We have also been reading the gossip that the Tigers are unlikely to trade Skubal before the Aug. 3 deadline. Here, we will examine the trade and non-trade scenarios, without getting into speculation about specific players being acquired in a deal.

In Favor of a Trade

A strong argument can be made that the worst possible outcome would be that the Tigers keep Skubal for a failed playoff run, or an early playoff exit, and then Skubal leaves as a free agent, with the Tigers receiving only a supplemental first-round draft pick as compensation.

One could also make the case that the Tigers could actually improve their roster in both the short term and the long term by making a trade. The Tigers have some depth in their starting rotation, with Casey Mize, Framber Valdez, Troy Melton and Jack Flaherty behind Skubal. Justin Verlander is due to return shortly, and Jackson Jobe is expected back before too long. Keider Montero was one of their best starters but has been pushed to the bullpen.

In a shortened postseason rotation, the Tigers would be replacing Skubal with one of those mentioned above instead of pushing them to the bullpen or off the playoff roster entirely. It’s a downgrade, but they’d be in position to demand an impact bat in return.

Skubal’s Trade Value

Needless to say, Skubal’s value to a new team would be greater if they are able to sign him to a long-term contract. That would significantly reduce the number of teams that could afford him.

But in that scenario, a team would have to give up both trade value in the form of prospects or younger players, AND his lucrative salary, which we’ve pegged at $350 million plus. And if Skubal and his agent, Scott Boras, are determined to hit the open market, the Tigers have only the rest of this season’s value to deal with.

The alternative is to trade Skubal as a rental, for the last two months of the 2026 season plus the playoffs this season. It would still take a major haul for the Tigers to trade their ACE. They would be looking for one starting pitcher to replace Skubal in the rotation, plus young players or prospects who are sure to make an impact at the major league level in the short term.

Here are some comps for players in similar situations as Skubal, and some scenarios that Tigers’ fans will find familiar.

Garrett Crochet

By comparison, perhaps the second-best pitcher in the American League in 2025 was traded prior to the 2025 season when the Chicago White Sox dealt their ace, Garrett Crochet, to Boston for four prospects.

In exchange for Crochet, the Red Sox sent catcher Kyle Teel, outfielder Braden Montgomery, infielder Chase Meidroth, and right-handed pitcher Wikelman Gonzalez to Chicago. The Red Sox then signed a six-year extension with Crochet for $170 million, an AAV of $28.333 million.

That was a record for a pitcher with four years of service time. Skubal now has five-plus years, with two months to go before free agency.   The prospects included the 25th- and 54th-overall ranked according to MLB Pipeline.

Teel graduated from prospect status after debuting in 2025 and has become Chicago’s primary catcher. Meidroth also graduated after reaching the majors in 2025. His on-base skills and defensive versatility have made him a regular part of the White Sox infield. Montgomery opened 2026 at Double-A, earned a quick promotion to Triple-A, and was promoted to the White Sox in June after hitting his way through the system. González remains in the organization as a pitching prospect and has not yet established himself in the major leagues.

Crochet was traded as a pitcher with two years of control remaining. Skubal has just this season. Skubal has two Cy Young seasons; Crochet has one runner-up season. Perhaps these factors somewhat offset each other, but the four prospects, two in the top 100 or top 54, are an indicator of what the Tigers could ask for in a trade.

Another indicator is the fact that Crochet was traded to one of the bigger-spending clubs in the game.  One that could afford a $170 million extension.  Any club hoping to acquire and extend Skubal will need a bigger checkbook.

Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander was traded by Detroit to Houston in July 2017, with a season and a half remaining on a seven-year contract. Verlander waived a player option that would have paid him below market for the 2020 season as part of the deal. Detroit also picked up $17 million of the remaining salary, bringing the cost to Houston in the range of $20 million per year. 

In exchange, the Tigers received prospects Franklin Perez, Daz Cameron, and Jake Rogers. While Cameron surfaced in the major leagues, Perez was a bust due to injuries, leaving Rogers, now a backup catcher, as the only valuable player in the deal. What we learn from this is that the Tigers dealt one of the best pitchers in the game at the time in order to receive prospects, and they were willing to pay salary to get them.

Obviously, they hoped to get greater value from the prospects, but look to how the prospects were valued at the time of the trade, rather than how or whether they panned out. This was early in the Chris Ilitch ownership years.

Verlander would go on to win a World Series with the Astros, sign a two-year extension with Houston that was the highest ever for an MLB pitcher at $33 million per season, and then break his own salary record by signing with the Mets for $43.333 million. 

Max Scherzer

Some say that the worst-case scenario would be for the Tigers to hang onto Skubal for another title run in 2026, and then let him walk for nothing but a draft pick as compensation, assuming there is any compensation after the ‘26 season (likely there will be, as the qualifying offer will have been made before any lockout).

Scherzer was the top prospect acquired by Detroit in a trade that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees and Edwin Jackson to Arizona prior to the 2010 season. The Tigers also acquired Austin Jackson, Dan Schlereth, and Phil Coke in the deal. He had made his MLB debut with the Diamondbacks and would become a fixture in the Tigers’ rotation for the duration of his control years, winning a Cy Young Award in 2013.

The Tigers reportedly made Scherzer a contract offer of $144 million over six years, or $24 million per season, which he declined. His gamble paid off, as he signed a seven-year contract worth $210 million with the Washington Nationals, where he won a World Series title, two Cy Young awards, and five top-five Cy finishes.

The Tigers were in the midst of what would be their fourth consecutive division title, with a star-studded pitching rotation that included Cy Young winners Verlander, Scherzer, and David Price, along with future Cy winner Rick Porcello, 2013 ERA champion Anibal Sanchez, and Drew Smyly. The failure to get any return for Scherzer, at least in the form of prospects if not some offensive punch, may have set the club on a course for rebuilding, which they ultimately did beginning in 2015. The team would eventually be swept in the playoffs by the Baltimore Orioles, and did not return to the postseason for another decade.

There is a difference between where the Tigers were in 2014 and where they are now. Owner Mike Ilitch was in his golden years, to say the least, and desperate for a winner. The Tigers were going all in, and they weren’t about to trade the reigning Cy Young winner as the playoffs approached.

It took some serious convincing to get him to sell at the trade deadline in 2015, as a number of players approached free agency and the team’s playoff hopes were circling the drain. He even doubled down the following winter, pushing payroll into luxury tax territory under new GM Al Avila for the next two seasons.

The 2026 Tigers are contenders, for sure. But they also have several prospects in the pipeline who could be part of a nucleus that they expect to help them contend for years to come. They have one of the highest-rated farm systems in the game. If they could cash in their ACE for a haul of major league-ready prospects, they might be able to contend in 2026 and extend that window for another four or five years.

David Price

We can look at two trades involving David Price and the Tigers. One is when they acquired him from Tampa Bay at the trade deadline in 2014 and again when they traded him to Toronto in 2015.

The Tigers acquired David Price at the trade deadline in 2014 in a three-way deal that sent Austin Jackson to Seattle, and Drew Smyly along with Willy Adames to Tampa Bay. Price had one more season remaining before free agency.  

Jackson was Detroit’s starting center fielder and Smyly was an effective pitcher both as a starter and reliever. Adames broke in with the Rays, but went on to become one of the premier shortstops in the major leagues. Again, look at the value at the time of the trade.

Price trade II: When things were not going as well for the Tigers in 2015, they were on track to miss the playoffs after four years as division champions and Price was set to become a free agent after the season, Detroit cashed in his chips at the trade deadline, moving him to the Toronto Blue Jays for three pitchers- Matthew Boyd, Jairo Labourt, and Daniel Norris.

Price was a pure rental at the time of the latter trade, which Skubal is this season, and it’s fair to say that the return was a very nice one for Detroit.

Rental Value

If Skubal and his agent are hell-bent on testing the waters of free agency, unleashing a bidding war between teams to sign him, then he would only be traded as a “rental” for the remainder of the 2026 season and the ensuing playoffs. Here are the most notable trades for free agent starting pitchers at the MLB trade deadline. Arguably none of them had as much value as a two-time defending Cy Young winner.

If you’re looking at starting pitchers who were pure rentals—acquired at the deadline with only a few months of team control remaining before free agency—the benchmark deals are these:

CC Sabathia (2008)

Traded from Cleveland to Milwaukee for Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, Zach Jackson, Rob Bryson.

This is probably the closest comparison to what a healthy Tarik Skubal rental would bring. Sabathia was traded in July 2008, then went on one of the greatest deadline runs ever: 11-2 record, 1.65 ERA, 7 complete games in just 17 starts (that’s almost as good as Doyle Alexander!), carrying Milwaukee to its first playoff appearance since 1982.

The Brewers surrendered a package headlined by Matt LaPorta (then a top-20 prospect in baseball) and Michael Brantley, who eventually became a four-time All-Star.

Sabathia is the closest analog because he was a true ace, impending free agent, and acquired specifically to carry a contender through a pennant race—exactly how a future Skubal rental would be viewed.

Cliff Lee (2010)

Traded by Seattle to Texas for Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke, Matt Lawson. All prospects.

David Price (2014)

Traded by Tampa Bay to Detroit in a three-way deal. The Rays received Austin Jackson, Drew Smyly, Willy Adames and Nick Franklin. Price actually had 1.5 seasons of control remaining, so it’s not a direct comparison, but you have to like the return!

David Price (2015)

Traded by Detroit to Toronto for Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd, Jairo Labourt.

This might be the most relevant recent example of a pure rental starting pitcher traded at the deadline. At the time, Norris was considered a premium prospect, and Boyd turned into an All-Star and the Tigers’ best pitcher for a while.

Zack Greinke (2012)

Traded by Milwaukee to the Angels for Jean Segura, Johnny Hellweg, Ariel Peña

Randy Johnson (1998)

Traded by Seattle to Houston for Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillén, John Halama.

This might be the best return for a rental with the benefit of hindsight. Garcia and Guillén were multiple time All stars and Halama was a reliable starter.

Skubal’s trade value

Assuming he is healthy and still performing at his normal star level, as he has been since returning from surgery this season, the Tigers could expect to receive:

• One elite prospect
• One additional Top-100 type prospect
• One or two secondary pieces

We might extract from how far back we must go to find comps for trading a high-value starting pitcher at the trade deadline, and teams don’t surrender four or five premium prospects for a pure rental, no matter how good the pitcher is. The Sabathia, Price, Greinke, Lee, and Johnson deals all generally fit that pattern.

If they are looking for a player who will make an immediate impact, that may lessen the value of the prospects, since they’re trading strictly with teams who are contending.

We could get creative and start adding in other players who are due for free agency, such as Casey Mize, Gleyber Torres, or Drew Anderson.

The Catch 22

So, should the Tigers trade Skubal for a haul of prospects while they are still contending for a playoff spot, surely the fan base would be upset, but they have to understand that the club is attempting to maximize their assets in a way that will provide them with a nucleus of players that allows them to contend for years to come.

If they hang onto Skubal and make the playoffs, but he walks at the end of the season without the club getting anything for him, keeping the playoff run going could be even more challenging. If they’re going to go all in, then they’d better go ALL in and win a World Series.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Cubs fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

The MLB Trade Deadline (and yes they now want it to be Capitalized) comes up in just 13 days, Monday, Aug. 3.

The Cubs will make a deal, or more than one. How do I know this? Well, I don’t. I don’t have any inside info so I’m guessing like the rest of you are, but the Cubs have clear needs to add starting pitching and probably relief pitching as well, especially with the uncertain status of Trent Thornton, who took a ball off his ankle Monday night.

This article isn’t intended to promote any specific trade or trades, though you can certainly discuss your ideas in the comments.

What I’d like to know in this week’s SB Nation Reacts survey is which of six top Cubs prospects would you not give up in any deadline deal?

The Cubs might wind up trading major league players too, including Matt Shaw, who’s been involved in multiple rumors. But here, I want to know, as the survey says, which prospect is untouchable. (I know who I’m voting for, but I won’t post that here because I don’t want to influence your vote.)

Vote in the survey and we’ll have the final results here later in the week.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Yankees fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

The Yankees have a rich tradition of game-changing midseason additions. From Cecil Fielder and David Justice to Bobby Abreu and the 2017 White Sox haul, there have been no shortage of impactful Trade Deadline moves in franchise history (and that’s just naming a few). The Yankees have been active around this time for much of the past decade as well, including bringing aboard closer David Bednar, third baseman Ryan McMahon, and shortstop José Caballero last year.

If the Yanks are in the playoff race, the smart money has them making a move or two to improve the roster. So for 2026, if you could only bolster one area of the team, which would it be? Fans are likely in a relative consensus that more than one trade is needed to get this team to championship-caliber, but just for the sake of the exercise, pick one!

• Catcher (Austin Wells has been in a season-long slumber and the backups haven’t hit either)
• Infield (Caballero has slumped after a hot start and McMahon, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Anthony Volpe have gone through varying rough patches)
• Outfield (Aaron Judge has slumped, Cody Bellinger has gone cold, and Jasson Domínguez hasn’t capitalized on his opportunities)
• Rotation (Max Fried and Carlos Rodón have both spent time on the shelf, Gerrit Cole is coming off Tommy John surgery, and the back of the rotation has been so-so)
• Bullpen (There is always an opportunity to improve middle relief, especially given Camilo Doval’s disastrous season and Tim Hill’s fade)

Cast your votes in the Feed poll below (or on the homepage), and we’ll check out the results in a few days.

Inspiration.

So far this season (at the All-Star break), Eduardo Rodriguez has a career low 2.29 ERA and a career best ERA+ of 188.  That’s great!  He is in his age 33 season.  That’s awesome!

Years ago, the AZ Snake Pit discussed Bartolo Colon.  He pitched through his age 45 season, truly a great example of an iron man pitcher.

What will Eduardo Rodriguez’s pitching look like as he ages?

Let’s look at pitchers who were excellent at age 33 and beyond.

My metric of choice is Adjusted ERA+.

For pitchers at each age level, let’s consider the best five as measured by ERA+.  This data is found in Baseball Reference.

“ERA+ takes a player’s ERA and normalizes it across the entire league. It accounts for external factors like ballparks and opponents. It then adjusts, so a score of 100 is league average, and 150 is 50 percent better than the league average.” – Editorial staff of MLB com.

Eduardo Rodriguez has a historic season.

At the All-Star break this season, looking at pitchers in their age 33 season regardless of the year they pitched, Eduardo Rodriguez’s 188 ERA+ is one of the five best ERA+s in baseball history.

What are the chances that Rodriguez will continue to pitch well as he ages?  I found six pitchers who continued to reach top-5 in their age group.  They are as follows:

• Randy Johnson, ages 33, 35, 36, 37, 38, 40
• Nolan Ryan, ages 34 and 43
• Cy Young, ages 34 and 41
• Bill Byrd, ages 33 and 40
• Lefty Grove, ages 36, 37, and 39
• Rich Hill, ages 36 and 39*

Realistically, those examples show that Eduardo Rodriguiez has a chance to continue pitching well for the next 6 to 10 seasons. 

Pitchers are throwing harder every season.  Despite that trend, I found seven pitchers (age 33 and older) in the top-5 since the 2000 season.  They are as follows:

• Randy Johnson, 2000-2004 (as a Diamondback)
• Ellis Kinder, 2002
• Roger Clemens, 2005
• Max Scherzer, 2022 (former Diamondback)
• Justin Verlander, 2022
• Nathan Eovaldi, 2025
• Eduardo Rodriguez, 2026

This season, Eduardo Rodriguez showed his pitching skill.

World Baseball Classic. Eduardo Rodrigez pitched 4.1 scoreless innings (one hit, four strikeouts, and one walk) against team USA, helping to win Venezuela its first ever WBC title. That performance was very impressive! 

All Star Game. In this season’s All-Star game, Eduardo Rodriguez pitched a scoreless second inning.  It was three batters up, three batters down, on two infield grounders, and one fly ball.  All three batters were above average, with regular season OPS+ of 102, 144, and 193.   That performance was outstanding!

Leaderboards. Among starting pitchers this season, Eduardo Rodriguez is on many leaderboards.  A few statistics (starting pitchers with a minimum 90 innings pitched) that show excellence follow:

• 188 Adjusted ERA+, ranked #4.  His overall pitching was outstanding.
• 63.2% Quality Starts, ranked #10.  He gave the Diamondbacks winning chances.
• 87.8% Runners Left on Base (LOB), ranked #2.  He got the third out, thereby stranding runners.
• .247 BABIP, sixth lowest.  When batters put the ball in play, their hits were below average.
• One of only 5 pitchers with zero sacrifice flies allowed. He prevented strong contact when it was important.
• One of only 2 pitchers with zero wild pitches AND zero hit batters.  His excellent pitch command had very few outliers.

Summary

At the All-Star break this season, looking at pitchers in their age 33 season regardless of the year they pitched, Eduardo Rodriguez’s 188 ERA+ is one of the five best ERA+s in baseball history.

Similar to 6 other pitchers, Eduardo Rodriguez could continue pitching well for 6 to 10 seasons, proving he is an iron man of pitching.

This season, Eduardo Rodriquez’s pitching was impressive. He pitched outstanding in the World Baseball Classic and in the All Star game. At the All-Star break, he was on many leaderboards. Most impressive were adjusted ERA+, quality starts, runners left on base, BABIP, no sacrifice flies allowed, no wild pitches, and no hit batters.

At 48-54 with 13 days until the trade deadline, the Houston Astros find themselves in a historically unusual position: they are farther away from .500 (6 games) than they are from the AL West division lead (3.5 games).

So far, nothing about this team says playoffs, yet their proximity to the playoffs and their owner’s unyielding desire to make the playoffs cannot be discounted.

In an appearance on AREA 45 on SportsRadio 610 yesterday, longtime MLB insider Bob Nightengale reiterated that desire is still coming from Houston. Jim Crane is highly competitive and wants to be in the postseason. GM Dana Brown has maintained his belief in the team and his stance that the team will be buyers at the deadline.

Despite that, it is hard to ignore the emerging market. There will not be a lot of sellers, there will be a lot of buyers, creating a seller’s market. Nightengale asserted in his interview last night that there will be a premium on top talent available because there won’t be a lot of it, and the top talent available will be in high demand.

With that in mind, there is far more value in being a seller than being a buyer this deadline. With the looming work stoppage that is widely expected, it is unclear when the offseason in MLB will actually begin, let alone when baseball will actually be played.

Top prospects are at an even greater premium this deadline as well, due to the expected lockout.

This brings us to 3 realistic paths forward for the Houston Astros at the deadline: full buy, change-up, and full sell.

The Full Buy:

Houston goes all in on the postseason, and spares no expense. No one is off limits from the minors, and they go for an impact starter, a leverage pen arm and lefthanded outfield bat that can be a legit consistent contributor to the lineup.

Examples: Robbie Ray/Clay Holmes (SP). Luke Weaver (RP), Jake McCarthy/Mickey Moniak (OF)

The Change-Up:

Houston reallocates it’s spending to different positions. This is likely the hardest to pull off because it requires the most moving parts.

It would involve trading players from the major league roster to acquire different players of different skill sets and positions:

Example: Trading Christian Walker in one deal (likely for a reliever), and acquiring Luis Arraez (to play 1B) in another.

Moving AJ Blubaugh (whose role may be filled by Kai-Wei Teng) as part of a deal to acquire an established starter (Joe Ryan, Clay Holmes) or outfielder (Jung Hoo Lee, Seiya Suzuki)

Moving Bryan Abreu (who has lost his role as a leverage reliever but whose numbers since June 1: 2.66 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 26K in 23.2 IP indicate improved play) in deal for OF (McCarthy, Moniak, Lars Nootbaar)

The Sell Off:

This would be taking advantage of the market inefficiency for buyers and lean into what should be a big seller’s market:

They would make nearly anyone not named Yordan Alvarez and Hunter Brown.

They would look to get huge returns on Jeremy Pena, Josh Hader

They would look to get best possible returns on: Isaac Paredes, Christian Walker (with the preference to move Walker over Paredes), Steven Okert, Bennett Sousa, Bryan Abreu, Peter Lambert, Yainer Diaz

It’s a full out prospect grab with the intent of keeping some of those prospects to build with and then moving others to re-tool the team in the offseason by trading for imapct talent.

It would also take advantage of the money now off the books next season ($19M for Hader, $20M for Walker, approx $16M for Pena, approx $9.5M for Paredes, $5.75M for Abreu, approx $3M for Okert/Sousa combined = approx $73M) to re-tool in the offseason in free agency.

While it is currently unknown if there will be a salary cap for the next season, we know owners have dug in harder than ever to obtain this and seem willing to not play to get it. It is also unknown if teams will be required to get under the cap immediately or if there will be a grandfathering of contracts.

If teams had to get under immediately, there could be a number of “distressed assets” hitting the market as some teams would be forced to make decisions on which of their high priced talent they would need to move on from in a hurry. In that situation, just like in the market, cash is king.

As for which kind of path the Astros ultimately take, it may very well be a matter of how well they play the next 10 days. If they rattle off a 7 game win streak and get back to .500, could well be a buying path. If they fall back closer to 10 games under, it would make more sense to sell.

Which way do you think they will go? Let us know in the comments below.

Yesterday, Chad Tracy announced that Ranger Suarez would come off the IL and make tonight’s start against the Orioles as the club goes for its franchise record tying 15th straight win. However, as of this afternoon, there’s been a change of plans.

The good news is this doesn’t appear to be injury related.

That reasoning is obviously fishy. The club easily could’ve known they wanted to give Suarez an extra day after pushing him the last few when they announced his start last night. Instead, the real reason they’re pushing this start back is likely because of weather, which threatens to upend tonight’s game at Fenway Park. Here’s what the latest HRRR model is showing in a simulated radar from 5:00pm to just after midnight:

The general trend here will be thunderstorms all over the place early in the evening, and then then a gradual thinning in their coverage as they slowly fall apart the deeper we go into the night. It will almost certainly rain, and rain heavy, but it won’t rain all night long, so there’s a shot they get this game in late if they push it.

Knowing this uncertainty, the Sox probably think it’s a better idea to go with a bullpen game started by Rivera with Brayan Bello backing him up. It takes Suarez out of the messy weather, it gives the other starters more rest when Suarez does slot back in, and it also means that any potential starts and stoppages within the game won’t impact the Sox as much because they’re largely going with a bullpen game anyway.

We could be an incredibly whacky night at the ballpark given all the dynamics in play between the pitching, the weather, and the win streak. Stay tuned!

Garrett Crochet: ‘Tough to say' if missing rest of Red Sox season is possible originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

When the Red Sox placed Garrett Crochet on the injured list at the end of April, it was not supposed to be a long stay.

Yet with the calendar now closer to August than June, Crochet’s still nowhere near a return to the mound. And when asked Tuesday (prior to the game being postponed) if it’s possible that he might not pitch at all for the rest of the season, Crochet could not give a definitive answer.

“I mean, it’s tough to say. I mean, I’m not gonna make a claim like that,” Crochet said when asked if missing the rest of the season is a possibility.

Considering the diagnosis in April, Crochet lamented the current reality of his situation.

“It sucks,” he said. “Like, I understand why you asked the question. It sucks, though, because I remember when I went on the IL originally, I was like, maybe I’ll just miss one start. And then the way that the injury just kind of matured, especially with the setback following the first ramp, it just, it matured to a place where, like I said, it’s just completely different from the original diagnosis, which sucks. But the shoulder is complex like that.”

Crochet has recently ramped down his activity, with the lefty no longer throwing plyo balls as part of his recovery efforts. The 27-year-old said that he was “not making the progress that we were hoping to see” and had plateaued in the rehab, leading to the decision to remove throwing from his program.

Crochet was the runner-up for the American League Cy Young Award last season, his first in Boston, when he went 18-5 with a 2.59 ERA in 32 starts. He led the AL in innings pitched (205 1/3, which was only 13 2/3 fewer than the number of innings he pitched combined in the five previous seasons) and led the majors in strikeouts (255).

This year, Crochet posted a 7.36 ERA across four spring training starts before pitching a gem (six shutout innings, eight strikeouts, two walks, three hits) in an Opening Day victory in Cincinnati. Crochet then went 2-3 in his next five starts, posting a 7.88 ERA and 1.625 WHIP. That stretch included a stunning start in Minnesota, when Crochet allowed 11 runs (10 earned) in just 1 2/3 innings against the Twins. Crochet allowed five runs (all earned) in five innings his next time out, but he did pitch six scoreless innings in late April in Baltimore (which happened to have been Alex Cora’s final game as Boston’s manager).

After being placed on the IL, Crochet said he needed to build up strength in his shoulder. On Tuesday, he said the diagnosis remains the same.

Yet when it comes to when the training staff might feel comfortable with letting him throw again, Crochet couldn’t venture a guess.

“To be honest, I don’t really have an idea,” he said. “Just with the setbacks that I had in the past, we’ve been rightfully cautious. For me, I’m just kind of doing what I’m asked.”

And while Crochet was a fixture in the Red Sox’ dugout throughout the month of May and the early part of June, he’s been absent during this current run of success (14-game winning streak, wins in 19 of the last 21 games). Crochet said that his absence was initially due to some of his rehab work taking place during games, so that he could stay out of the way of the players who were actually active.

“And then it was like, man, we kind of got a good thing going here,” Crochet said. “And then I finished my work the other day in like the seventh inning and I was like, let me finish this inning in here and maybe I’ll go out. And then Wilyer [Abreu] hit the homer and I was like, ooh, I gotta stay inside.”

While superstition will always be present in baseball, Crochet admitted that he’s just doing what he can to help the streak while he remains on the IL.

“I think that there’s enough confidence amongst the group where they don’t really feel the need to press like that,” Crochet said. “But, you know, I’m gonna do my part.”

So I thought I’d go through this little exercise just for my own sense of ‘what the hell is going on’.

Over the last 22 games, four weeks (with the All Star break in there), the Jays are 7-15. They’ve averaged 3.5 runs a game. Quite the stretch run. The batters are hitting .214/.272/.337….which makes me wonder how they scored 3.5 runs per game.

Hot

Ernie Clement: Played in 21 games, starting 20. Hitting .316/.353/.392 with 1 home run, 3 doubles, 4 RBI, 1 steal, 4 walks and 5 strikeouts.

I mean, hot is overstating it, his OPS over the last month is .745 and his season number is .751. But I wanted someone on this side of the board. He is keeping to his one walk a week thing. I wish he would chase less, but this is the guy he is and it works for him. They aren’t going to be able to change him. I am worried that he won’t age well as a batter. Generally batters who age well control the strike zone. But we’ll see, he’s 30 now, and was an All-Star.

Cold

Brandon Valenzuela: Played in 10 games, starting 8. Hitting .129/.206/.226 with 1 home run, 2 RBI, 3 walks and 12 strikeouts.

Well, he was good earlier in the season. Brandon started one game at DH. He also played some first base. He caught 1 of 3 base stealers.

Vladimir Guerrero: Started 21 of 22 games. Hit .183/.264/.293 with 1 double, 2 home runs, 9 RBI, 9 walks and 21 strikeouts, with 2 stole bases.

DHed four times. Who would have thought he’d be a glove first first baseman. 21 strikeouts in 21 games isn’t what I expect from him. Bat speed is still great (92 percentile). But he’s not hitting the ‘sweet spot’ (17th). Expected batting average is still high (91st percentile). The fielding is still good, 4 outs above average but Savant says his arm strength isn’t what it used to be (17th percentile). And his chase rate, which was 89th percentile last year, is 40th this year. The commentators like to use the line chasing hits, and that’s likely fair. I often see people say what he should be doing, and I’m always thinking ‘If it was something that easy, you don’t think they’ve tried it.‘ I was hoping the All-Star break would help him out. Give him a few days to stop thinking about things. But that didn’t help. Right now, I’m hoping the off-season clears whatever is going on.

Andrés Giménez: Played in 20 games, starting 17. Hit .204/.246/.278 with 4 doubles, 5 RBI, 1 steal, 3 walks and 8 strikeouts.

Yeah, he’s not hitting. He is a plus 11 OAA, second in the AL to Bobby Witt. FanGraphs has him at a 1.4 WAR but we really need to score occasionally. Ok, more occasionally. The hope was that he would get back to what how he was hitting in 2022, but he’s gone the other way.

Kazuma Okamoto: Started in 21 games. Hit .215/.303/.418 with 1 double and 5 home runs, 16 RBI, 8 walks and 21 strikeouts.

He’s played third in all 21 games.Maybe a day off or a DH day, here and there, wouldn’t be a bad idea. He has 2 hits in the last 6 games and none since the All-Star break. His defense, minus the error the other day, has been fine. Fangraphs has him at a -1 outs above average.

Daulton Varsho: Played in 21 games, starting 20. Hit .189/.221/.284 with 1 double, 4 RBI, 3 steals, 3 walks and 15 strikeouts.

He’s costing himself a lot of money, he was set for a big payday in free agency but it isn’t going to happen now. FanGraphs has him at a plus 5 outs above average, not as good as he has been in the past. It seems like he has been better defensively of late.

George Springer: Started 13 games. Hitting .208/.263/.358 with 1 triple, 2 home runs, 4 RBI, 1 steal, 4 walks and 15 strikeouts.

He’s been better in his last three games.364 BA with a home run. Hopefully that will continue. He did play that one game in left field and didn’t look out of place. I wonder if anyone will want him at the deadline for his leadership or playoff experience.

Myles Straw: Played in 20 games, starting 7. Hit .147/.143/.265 with 1 double, 1 home run, 6 RBI, 1 strikeout.

A fast runner, whose OBA is lower than his BA. Someone ought to explain to him that getting on base is the way to use that speed. Oh well. His glove has been good, a +3 outs above average. He was a +9 last year, in less than double the innings of last year.

Alejandro Kirk: Played in 18 games, starting 15. Hit .204/.306/.296 with 2 doubles, 1 home run, 4 RBI, 8 walks and 6 strikeouts.

He’s actually done well in his last 8 games, hitting .286/.423/.381 so hopefully that’s a turn around point. And he’s thrown out 4 base stealers of the last 17 (24%) in this period.

Sean Keys: Played in 11 games, 10 starts. Hit .176/.200/.294 with 1 double, 1 home run, 5 RBI, 1 walk and 13 strikeouts.

He hasn’t exactly torn the cover off the ball since coming up. It is tough when you aren’t playing regularly, but that’s the role he’s in.

Yohendrick Pinango: Played in 8 games. Hit .176/.200/.294 with 1 home runs, 1 walk and 7 strikeouts.

He’s back in Buffalo. He is hitting .263/.349/.474 this month in Buffalo.

Inbetween

Nathan Lukes: Played in 21 games, starting 19. Hit .264/.329/.389 with 3 home runs, 4 RBI, 6 walks and 10 strikeouts.

Not hot….not cold. He’s been good since the All-Star break. I liked him in the leadoff spot.

Also Played:

Davis Schneider: Played in 4 games, starting 2. Hit .000/.000/.000 with 1 RBI, with 4 strikeouts.

He has hit 317/.473/.659 in Buffalo in July, which suggests he might be back soon.

IL

Jesús Sánchez: Should start a rehab stint soon.

Anthony Santander: I doubt he’ll be back this year.

Addison Barger: If he comes back this year, it won’t be until September.

The trade deadline is of course the hottest topic around the Phillies today. It’s a constant source of chatter since the needs the team has are seemingly obvious. That makes this question kind of easy:

Saying that the team needs all of these things is easy. Actually executing the deals is another thing altogether. Dave Dombrowski has the task ahead of him to make sure that the team is getting better by adding pieces to it, but will he be able to do so?

That’s the question.

The team’s lack of enviable talent in their minor league system means they probably don’t have the necessary ammunition to make all the trades they have to in order to plug the leaks in the team boat. He might be able to pull off one deal, maybe two. But adding all three pieces that are needed? Color me skeptical.

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