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I am no scout, though I’m pretty sure by this point I can tell the difference between a good baseball player and a bad baseball player. Projecting which players will be good, though, simply by watching workouts and game action and coming away with knowing what I’m talking about is still a science I don’t full grasp. It’s every season where I hear about something that still makes me appreciate those that can do it and do it with pretty good accuracy.

Rarely have I watched the Arizona Fall League at any point in a season, mostly because my baseball focus was solely on the Phillies and how they were faring in the playoffs. That has of course changed with the Phillies currently at home for the offseason and some of their better prospects getting some run down Arizona. It’s because of those prospects that more attention should be given to those games as they are going to have some say in how the Phillies approach their offseason plans. Maybe they aren’t going to chart the ultimate course of action the team decides to take, but several of the players that are there will have some bearing on what the Phillies plan to do.

Aidan Miller

The highest profile name the Phillies have sent there, Miller’s performance is likely going to play a part in several decisions the team makes. As you already know, Miller did miss most of the 2026 season with a back injury that needed some kind of procedure done, but he returned healthy enough to get a week’s worth of games in at the end of the regular season before helping Reading win the Eastern League championship. When he did return, there was rust on his frame, but there were glimpses!

How he performs in Arizona will probably not determine if he makes the major leagues out of spring training or not, but it will likely influence the roster on the fringes. He’s on a team that also includes Sebastian Walcott on the roster, arguably the top hitting prospect in the game today, so getting Miller every day at bats in Arizona will be a challenge. Let’s say he shows that he’s still one of the better hitting prospects in the game in these few weeks. Does the team decided to prop open the door for him to win a spot in Clearwater? Do they move Trea Turner in deference to his impending arrival? Do they sign someone as a stopgap in order to not block him at shortstop? Is shortstop even his final home or is a move to third base already in the cards? He’s played only one game so far and that came at third to make room for another shortstop there, Welbyn Francisca from the Guardians system.

Of course, the entire thing will depend on how Miller ultimately holds up healthwise. The team is likely just hoping he has a good, solid six weeks of health and plate appearances to make up for some of the time he lost this year. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if he was held back a bit by the team to make sure there is nothing going wrong. You can imagine that the slightest tweak of anything and he is going home for the winter.

Realistically, it would be unfair to place too much stock in how he performs and let that influence the team’s decision making. He just needs to get the work in, not worry about how it’ll set his place for 2027. He’s going to make his debut next year at some point. It’ll just depend on next year more than anything he does in Arizona. Still, he’s easily the most interesting watch they have.

Aroon Escobar

Escobar was arguably the team’s best hitting prospect besides Miller coming into 2026 and he flat stunk the joint up. Pretty much everything that he was good at took a step backwards this year, lowering his stock within the organization quite a bit. There was a time when his name would come in trade discussions about how he was the best prospect the team could move at the deadline while getting something real back in return. Now, that idea seems too foreign to actually occur.

The team will need to make a decision on whether or not to place him on the 40 man roster this offseason, a decision that was pretty easy prior to this year. It still is thanks to the dearth of hitting prospects this team has, but if he isn’t going to take some steps back in the right direction, the team may want to think twice before taking the plunge on the roster spot. He needs to have a good showing in Arizona to show that he is worthy of a roster and/or worth another team taking a shot on him in a deal this offseason.

Dante Nori and Kehden Hettiger

Speaking of falling stock…

Neither Nori nor Hettiger would be something teams would classify as a “top prospect”. Pay no mind to the fact that Nori is a first round draft pick. He wasn’t considered one then by people on the outside and really hasn’t done anything to sway that opinion since.

Think Justin Crawford, only worse.

Yet within the Phillies farm system, he is still seen as someone who might potentially fit a role with the team. That speaks more to their lack of actual hitting prospects than anything else, but finding competent role players from within the organization is one of the biggest reasons the Phillies have started to show more cracks in the armor at the major league level. Nori’s performance in Arizona won’t go very far in determining if he can earn a starting position as that’s not really on the table. His ever being penciled into a big league lineup with regularity is likely off the table. But consider that Felix Reyes was batting cleanup at one point this year. Gabriel Rincones was given lots of chances to see what he could do. Heck, even Otto Kemp was touted as an option in the outfield for the team. The chances are there for minor league players to earn playing time in this outfield. Nori needs to start putting things together if he wants to be among the many that are given that chance.

The very same could be said about Hettiger. The team has very few catching prospect in their farm system and willingly gave playing time to Garrett Stubbs and Rafael Marchan. They are begging for players within the organization to take a step forward to claim a backup role on the team. There might even be some chances to start games!

Marchan started games.

Stubbs was on a playoff roster…on purpose!

Opportunities abound if only players take it and seize it. Hettiger finished the year in Reading, making it unlikely that he’s going to reach Philadelphia any time soon. Yet good performances can sometimes springboard a player into having a good season the following year. Perhaps he can gain a better standing with the team by showing that there is still a good prospect in there, somewhere.

The Arizona Fall League isn’t the greatest baseball being played. Pitchers don’t pitch long, players leave at the slightest sign of injury and generally, it’s played during the MLB playoffs, meaning our focus is elsewhere. Yet the Phillies have some interesting guys at play this year. How they do can help answer some questions about this team’s future.

The Royals have a stadium to sell, a payroll to explain, and a lot of confidence about both. The numbers have not exactly gotten the memo. Jacob Milham and Jeremy Greco go through John Sherman’s latest answers on spending and the stadium timeline, and the gap between the pitch and the math is where this episode lives.

Jeremy brings the skepticism, starting with why the stadium district report feels more like a sales job than a breakthrough. Then he turns it on J.J. Picollo’s first four years, where he spots a pattern that keeps repeating: the Royals hold on to players long after the value is gone. Jacob counters with the labor angle, and a TV rights window that may make a lockout far less likely than the doom talk suggests.

October gets its turn too. The Padres’ supposedly elite bullpen cracked under pressure, and the Brewers, Braves, and Dodgers have made some decisions that deserve a second look. It is a good reminder of how often playoff theater and playoff truth are two different things.

If you want the version of the Royals offseason that comes with receipts, this one is for you. Stream the full episode, then tell us whether the stadium math adds up for you.

For the reporting on the 60-game threshold regarding MLB broadcasts, check it out here.

Find all the Arizona Fall League live stream information here.

Need your Royals fix? Head to royalsreview.com for news, analysis, and to engage with Royals fans around the world! Follow us online:

BlueSky
– Jeremy Greco: @hokius.fromthehawkseye.com
– Jacob Milham: @jacobmilhkc.bsky.social

Twitter / X
– Podcast: @RoyalRundownPod

For game three in Chicago, I’d like to see the Guardians try a bullpen game with an all-hands on deck approach.

By including Foster Griffin and Tanner Bibee on the roster, the Guardians indicated a willingness to throw the kitchen sink at the White Sox. So, let’s do it.

It’ll be a wild atmosphere to open the game, so you want to open with a steady hand. I wouldn’t be opposed to Shawn Armstrong in this role given his excellent performance in game 2. People are going to hate this, but I also wouldn’t oppose Erik Sabrowski or Tim Herrin in the role. Give them a clean inning and see if Venable will put in his Grichuk and Pham pieces before going immediately to a right-hander at the first sign of trouble or to start the second if Sabrowski or Herrin get through a clean first.

So, say, Herrin for the first. Then, Daniel Espino for one, Foster Griffin for one, Tanner Bibee for one, Joey Cantillo for two. Then, you have Shawn Armstrong, Hunter Gaddis, Erik Sabrowksi and Cade Smith to finish off the game. You also have each arm available to plug in as need be if someone listed above gets in trouble. I would be willing to give Griffin a couple innings (centered against a heavily LHH-portion of the White Sox lineup), but I would give Bibee the bottom of the order in a middle inning and nothing more. I think this set-up has the best chance at keeping the White Sox off balance for a game.

In regards to the hitters, I don’t expect this to happen, but I’d like to see Daniel Schneemann get the start over Angel Martinez. Aside from the fact that Angel is chasing disastrously (as might have been predicted looking at his season rates), I am afraid this is a vibes move. Schneemann has been great at being plugged into a lineup and getting a random hit or home run. I want to see White Sox fans tweeting “SCHNEEMANN? WHO THE BLEEP IS SCHNEEMANN?” Also, Schneemann provides some defensive excellence in left field.

Give me this lineup:
1. Kwan CF
2. Jose 3B
3. DeLauter RF
4. Lowe 1B
5. Adell DH
6. Bazzana 2B
7. Schneemann LF
8. Bailey C
9. Rocchio SS

And bullpen chaos/all-hands on deck and let’s try to push this thing to game four.

Welcome to Tuesday everyone!

The Athletics suffered massive injury issues this year with the majority of their starting lineup spending time on the injured list. No team can survive the onslaught of bumps and bruises that the team had this year and it showed in the final standings. If the team can’t stay healthy next year we’re looking at a repeat of 2026.

The injury bug hasn’t quite fallen asleep for the winter. Right-handed pitcher Seth Johnson has undergone surgery on his left knee, fixing an issue that apparently hampered him all year long:

The right-hander’s first look with the A’s didn’t go all that well. He pitched in 12 games for the A’s after his mid-season trade from Philadelphia and allowed a whopping 12 runs in just 17 1/3 innings of work. Not what the team was hoping for when they acquired him for Colby Thomas at the trade deadline. Johnson has yet to really have any sort of success at the big league level since making his one-game big league debut in 2024, with a total of 39 appearances over the past three years.

Still, he was highly regarded enough for the A’s to trade Thomas, who was only two years ago considered one of the top prospects in the Athletics’ system. His numbers in Triple-A indicate that he could have success in the big leagues if he’s able to really put it together. Maybe the knee was holding him back this year. It is the one he plants on when he pitches after all. Either way, next season will be a big one for the 28-year-old, who will have an excellent chance to make his first Opening Day roster if he has a big spring training. For now, he’ll be focused on rehabbing that knee and getting as strong as possible before camp.

As for today’s playoff slate, we’re back in the National League after watching the AL matchups last night. The #2 seeded Dodgers let Game Two slip through their fingers and now head to Atlanta with the series tied 1-1. This Dodgers squad has looked old and beatable at times this year and Atlanta is giving it their best shot. This could end up going the full distance.

The Brewers meanwhile, even though they’ve had plenty of regular season success, have only made the NLCS once in that same time period. In fact, the last time they made the NLCS was in 2018, when they lost to…. the Dodgers. Milwaukee would love to avenge that loss nearly a full decade ago. It’s the matchup baseball wants and the one the fans need to see. Unless the Braves have something to say about that. It’ll be Yamamoto versus Sale in the Dodgers-Braves game, and Dustin May against Nick Pivetta in the nightcap between the Brewers and Padres.

First pitch between the Dodgers and Braves is at 6 PCT. Have a good one A’s fans.

A’s Coverage:

• ‘Be a sponge’: No. 19 prospect leads A’s Fall League group with do-it-all mentality
• Zack Of All Trades Tries To Get One More Win: In Court
• Important Dates For The Athletics This Offseason
• A’s part ways with assistant hitting, quality control coaches
• After an outfield collision left him paralyzed, every gain in rehab is a big win for A’s Ryan Lasko
• Athletics’ Zack Gelof sues Tigers after hitting metal fence
• A’s Las Vegas ballpark cost rises to $2.1B, public funding delayed
• 2026: Year Of The “Didn’t See That Coming!”
• A’s Hoping Luis Severino Chooses to Stay
• Where the A’s Plan to Use Zack Gelof in 2027
• A’S OPEN TO MOVING LUIS MEDIA BACK INTO ROTATION 
• Last MLB game in West Sacramento? Why A’s 2026 season deserves a eulogy
• Perkins finishes intriguing season with another flash of potential
• ‘Road Trip Mike’ on the move to wherever his beloved A’s go
• Wheat/Chaff Updates As Season Winds Down
• Paralyzed A’s prospect Lasko released from rehab facility to ovation from staff
• Devin Taylor: Athletics 2026 Minor League Player Of The Year
• Henry Bolte Is the A’s Next Budding Star
• Determining Athletics’ Offensive MVP for the 2026 Season
• Notes From Star-Studded Rockies-A’s Instructional League
• Injuries Out Of Control, But Why?
• 2027 Infield Landscape Ever Changing
• “Fast Movers” Might Be Key To Contention
• Billy Beane comments on the job Mark Kotsay has done this season.
• Should Mark Kotsay return in 2027? A’s Players Weigh In
• What the A’s Hiring Mike Rizzo would Signal and the Questions it Would Raise
• Athletics Considering James Click For GM Vacancy
• Get the best of Athletics Nation on the new SB Nation app

MLB News & Interest:

• Less than 2 years later, Crochet trade return trio paying huge dividends for Chicago
• Padres Activate Walker Buehler Onto NLDS Roster
• Was Miller tipping pitches? Closer — and Brewers’ skipper — both say no
• Mariners Announce Surgeries For Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor
• First home playoff clincher in 120 years? White Sox on cusp of making it happen
• Breslow, Tracy: Red Sox not overly reliant on analytics
• Roman Anthony Expected To Avoid Offseason Surgery
• Red Sox View Curtis Mead As Early Favorite For Second Base Job
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

Very possible, if he’s still in the organization by then:

Crazy Yankees stat:

Tough to see Miller struggling on the biggest stage:

Despite only being in the job for a year, Paul Toboni has already made plenty of moves. He is an active GM who leaves no stone unturned when it comes to trying to make his team better. However, there is one trade I will discuss that has not aged well so far.

Back in Mid-December Paul Toboni made a rare prospect for prospect swap. He made a deal with his old boss Craig Breslow that sent LHP Jake Bennett to the Red Sox in exchange for RHP Luis Perales. It was a fascinating trade because of the one for one nature and the fact that Perales and Bennett are such different pitchers.

The Red Sox went after a polished lefty with great command in Bennett. Meanwhile, the Nats got a high upside flame-thrower in Perales. It was a classic case of stuff vs command. In year one, the command specialist easily won the day.

While Perales was the more well-known name, Bennett was the one who burst on to the scene in 2026. Entering the year, it was difficult to see how Bennett could break into a crowded Red Sox rotation. However, things changed after Garrett Crochet went down and Bennett dominated in AAA.

Bennett was impressing Red Sox fans as early as Spring Training with improved velocity to go with his already elite execution. He did not make the team out of camp, but after a few starts in the minors, it was clear that the lefty was big league ready. Bennett posted a 1.60 ERA in nine AAA starts.

Once injuries hit the Red Sox rotation, he was the next man up. When he arrived, Bennett made the most of his opportunity. In 113.1 innings, Bennett posted a 3.65 ERA with 91 strikeouts to just 21 walks. He became a stabilizing force in the Red Sox rotation and played a key role in turning their season around.

In fact, Bennett was so good that the Red Sox were willing to trade the more highly touted Connelly Early for offensive help, ironically to the Nats. That 3.65 ERA was no mirage either. Bennett’s FIP was 3.51, his xERA was 3.42 and his xFIP was 3.81. He is tracking like a quality number 3 starter for years to come.

Jake Bennett does not have electric stuff, but he makes up for it with phenomenal command and deception. Bennett only walked 4.6% of hitters and generated a 37.4% chase rate. Those are both extraordinary numbers. His fastball and changeup were absolute weapons this season.

It is worth noting that Bennett posted a 4.66 ERA in his last 7 outings. However, his strikeout and walk numbers were actually better in that time. I think that 3.65 ERA number is pretty representative of his true talent. The lack of dominant stuff holds him back from being a top of the rotation guy, but Jake Bennett is rock solid.

In exchange for Bennett, the Nats got Luis Perales, who could not be any more different as a pitcher. While Bennett throws in the 92-94 MPH range, Luis Perales averages 99 on his heater. To go with that heater, Perales has a 93 MPH cutter and a nasty splitter that just falls off the table.

If you are just looking at pure stuff, Perales is world’s better than Bennett. His fastball gets a lot of carry and his splitter drops a lot. However, there is more to pitching than just raw stuff and the Nats are learning that the hard way in this trade.

Like Bennett, Luis Perales started the season in AAA. However, he did not have the same success early on. He really struggled with command out of the gates, and that became a trend. While things got better, and the ERA was not bad, there were some red flags in his profile.

Speaking of that ERA, if that was the only thing you looked at, his AAA season would seem pretty strong. He posted a 3.64 ERA in Rochester over 96.1 innings. However, the underlying numbers told a different story. Perales had a FIP of 4.63, almost a full run higher than his ERA. His xERA was 4.12 and his xFIP was 4.86. Perales walked over 13% of hitters in the minors this year. 

While his strikeout numbers were good, they were not elite. A 23.5% K rate is not enough to make up for all those walks. The reason his ERA was so low is due to a .243 BABIP, which is very low. Perales was getting lucky in Rochester.

As the season finished, Perales was moved to the bullpen so he could get a shot in the big leagues. He actually looked good in that role in Rochester. Perales made three relief appearances in the minors and dominated. In 6 innings, Perales allowed 0 runs, struck out 12 and only walked two batters. That relief role seemed like a great fit for him.

However, things took a turn for the worst once he reached the majors. In his first outing, Perales allowed a grand slam, and that really set the tone. Perales made 6 appearances and tossed 11 innings. In those outings, Perales allowed 14 runs, walked 13 hitters, gave up 15 hits and surrendered 5 homers. It was a complete disaster and Perales did not look big league ready in the slightest. Despite throwing over 100 fewer innings, Bennett walked just 8 more hitters than Perales.

There were some major problems that were easy to identify. The first one is just the command. So many of Perales’ pitches are either uncompetitive misses or right down the middle. He just does not execute at an MLB level, especially with his fastball. In a lot of outings, Perales just had to abandon his triple digit heater because he can’t command it.

Perales’ best pitch is his splitter. When he actually finds a way to get ahead in the count, the pitch is filthy. It generated whiffs at a 48.9% clip and batters hit just .063 on the pitch. However, his splitter is a chase pitch. Unless he is ahead in the count, hitters can just lay off the pitch.

The one pitch he can consistently throw in the zone is his cutter. Unfortunately, his cutter is the one pitch that just is not very impressive stuff wise. Hitters just teed off on his cutter and 4-seamer. Perales’ pitch mix and command just does not work in the MLB right now.

I still believe in the raw stuff and I think he has a chance to be a good reliever with further development. We will see how that development goes because there is a dark cloud looming. Right now, Perales is out of options meaning he will have to stick on the big league roster moving forward. However, there is a strong chance he could get an extra option year due to missing almost all of last season with Tommy John.

We better hope Perales gets that option year because he is not big league ready right now. It would be tough to carry a pitcher this raw on an MLB roster and it would also be a disaster if he were DFA’d.

On the season, Perales posted -0.5 fWAR while Bennett compiled 2.3 fWAR. So far this has been a story of command being more important than stuff. The funky lefty who knows how to pitch is way better than the flamethrowing righty with bad command.

It is worth noting that this was Perales’ first year back from Tommy John. As he gets further removed from the surgery, I hope he regains some sharpness. The stuff is all the way back, but the command still has a long way to go. Control had always been a question for Perales, but prior to the surgery he was headed in the right direction. This season has been a big step in the wrong direction though.

We will continue to go over some of Paul Toboni’s moves as we get deeper into the offseason, but so far this looks like the worst one. Right now, Bennett looks like a mid rotation starter while Perales needs a lot to go right for him to even become an effective reliever.

There is a chance this trade looks better after another year, but so far this has been a big swing and a miss. Toboni’s old boss seems to have got one over on him here. This trade gives us an important reminder that while stuff is very important, it is not everything. Pitchers still need to be able to execute and throw quality strikes. Jake Bennett is a master in that regard while Luis Perales is well below average. Let’s hope Perales can figure it out moving forward because this is not looking good right now.

Hello and happy Tuesday, folks. Hope your week’s off to a good start.

Believe it or not, there’s no Red Sox game on today. Or tomorrow. Or any day for the foreseeable future, actually. That means we’ve got a good amount of free time on our hands.

My question to you: How have you been spending that time over the last few nights? It’s almost been a week since the Sox got bounced by the Yankees. Have you been locked into the rest of the MLB playoffs? Are you and baseball on a break? Something in between? Catch any good movies lately? Gotten into pottery or another art/craft? Let us know in the comments below. God, writing this instead of watching the Sox sucks.

Be good to each other and go Sox.

Yesterday saw another Atlanta Braves prospect show up in the Arizona Fall League, as Isaiah Drake got the start in left field for the Glendale Desert Dogs.

Surprise Saguaros 8, Glendale Desert Dogs 7

Isaiah Drake, LF: 1-4, SB

Boxscore

Isaiah Drake had four at bats in this game, which ended with a walkoff in the ninth. In the second inning he reached base because of an error by the second baseman, and went on to steal second base – already his second stolen base of the AFL season. Then there was a fly out in the fourth and a strikeout in the sixth for his next two at bats. He came back up in the eighth and hit an infield single to the third baseman. Drake would be the only Braves prospect to appear in this one.

The Royals’ Single-A affiliate, the Columbia Fireflies finished the season with a record of 64-65, almost winning the division in the first half of the season. There was plenty of good and bad throughout the season, so let’s dive into it.

The good from the position players:

Josh Hammond, the Royals’ first round pick in the 2025 draft out of Wesleyan Christian high school in North Carolina, was great in his first season of pro ball. He just turned 20 two weeks ago, young for his level. In 437 at bats, the shortstop slashed .286/.354/.389 with 24 doubles, 3 triples and 5 homers. He walked 46 times and stole 25 bases in 30 attempts. He moved between shortstop and third base, and had 24 errors on the season, so that’s something he can work on, but again, for a guy that was 19 all season, I think it was a good first step.

Sean Gamble, the Royals’ other first round pick in 2025, finished strong in the second half. The 19-year-old outfielder got off to a very slow start, and was hitting just .114 by May 21. He was able to turn it around after that, hitting .254/.375/.398 over his last 75 games, finishing at .203/.315/.310. On the season, he hit 17 doubles, 3 triples and 7 homers. He stole 38 baseas and was really good in centerfield defensively.

JC Vanek is a lesser heralded guy, he was a 14th round draft pick in the 2025 draft, out of Chipola Junior College. The now 22-year-old first baseman hit .255/.399/.446 over 298 at bats this season, with 14 homers and 20 stolen bases, mostly playing first and left field. Vanek is someone who could be a late bloomer throughout the organization and someone to watch.

Yandel Ricardo is a 19-year-old shortstop who the Royals signed out of Cuba in January of 2024. He hit .266/.351/.398 in his first full season in Columbia, with 17 doubles, 7 triples and 7 homers, with 27 steals. He also worked 48 walks in 109 games. He played a good mix of second base and shortstop defensively and was good at both.

Brooks Bryan, the Royals’ eighth-round pick in the 2025 draft out of Troy University, was phenomenal in 119 at-bats. Battling through injuries, Bryan slashed .319/.406/.496 and hit three homers. He’s another guy I think might be a late bloomer who is worth keeping an eye on in the organization.

The good from the pitching staff:

Jose Gutierrez, a 23-year-old right-hander from Venezuela, was probably the most consistent starter for the Fireflies this season. He went 9-4 on the season, with a 3.62 ERA in 114.1 innings pitched. He struck out 98 batters, with a 1.32 WHIP and .256 opponents’ batting average. He grinded through the Royals DSL systems and is coming into his own now, and could start in Quad Cities next season.

Michael Lombardi, the Royals’ second round draft pick in 2025 from Tulane, had a good season. Lombardi threw 88 innings this season, posting a 3.68 ERA, but striking out 124 hitters. He did walk 52 batters in those 88 innings, but opponents hit just .223 off him.

Randy Ramnarace is a 22-year-old right hander from New York that the Royals selected the 16th round of the 2025 draft. He posted a 3.68 ERA in 44 innings pitched this season. He struck out 41 batters, but did walk 44, so that’s something he will have to work on, but opponents hit just .206 this season.

Darwin Rodriguez is a 23-year-old left-hander, from Venezuela who threw 115 innings, allowing a 3.83 ERA. He struck out 114 hitters. He posted a 1.37 WHIP, opponents did hit .262 off him.

Hiro Wyatt dealt with injuries but was solid when healthy. The Royals’ 3rd round pick in 2023, now a 22-year-old right-hander, started 7 times, going 28 innings, posting a 3.21 ERA. He struck out 24 hitters, with a 1.46 WHIP and .248 opponents’ batting average. If healthy next year, easily a guy that could be at Quad Cities and Northwest Arkansas.

The pitching list isn’t as long, but a good amount of those guys ended up in Quad Cities, who we will talk about next week, so don’t fret. Overall, the Royals Single-A affiliate, the Columbia Fireflies had a lot of positives.

One full season of ABS challenges by batters, catchers and pitchers is in the books, so I thought it would be interesting to have a look at the results. Of course, the system continues through the postseason — and we already have had a postseason game end on an ABS challenge! — but we have quite a bit of data after one season.

There were 714,483 pitches made during the 2026 regular season. Of those, 2,172 were thrown by position players (not including Shohei Ohtani, who’s considered a pitcher for the sake of this argument). By rule, ABS challenges cannot be made on pitches thrown by position players, so that reduces the challengeable total to 712,311. Of those, 10,557 pitches were challenged.

Thus, about 1.5 percent of all challengeable pitches were actually challenged. Of those, 5,685, or 53.9 percent, were overturned. That’s about eight-tenths of one percent of all challengeable pitches.

So the general lesson learned here is: Umpires are pretty good at making ball-and-strike calls. Of course, there were some challengeable pitches not challenged for a number of reasons:

• In general, players were discouraged from challenging in early innings
• Some potentially challengeable pitches were let go because they were deemed situationally unimportant by players who could have challenged them, and
• Teams were out of challenges on certain pitches they could have challenged

In general, then, I think the system worked well and as the season went on, players did appear to get better at figuring out situational challenging and getting them right.

In addition, though pitchers are allowed to challenge pitches, early in the season it became clear that they were not very good at it and many teams discouraged pitchers from challenging or even flat out told them not to do it. Of the 10,557 challenges, only 182 (1.7 percent) were made by pitchers and of those, only 72 were overturned (39.6 percent of the 182). Hitters made 4,766 challenges and were correct 2,328 times, or 48.8 percent, and catchers turned out to be best at this, making 5,609 challenges and getting 3,285 overturned, or 58.6 percent.

Now let’s take a look at how the Cubs did.

The Cubs ranked 17th among MLB teams with 338 total challenges (the Twins were first with 450). Of the 338, 162 were made by Cubs hitters and those were 51.9 percent correct. Cubs catchers made 174 challenges and were correct 66.9 percent of the time, which was third-best of any team’s catchers (behind the Phillies at 72.7 percent and Reds at 68 percent). Just two Cubs pitchers challenged pitches this year and only one of those was correct.

Matthew Boyd was responsible for that incorrect pitcher challenge and it could have had an effect on where the Cubs finished this year — no kidding. Here’s that challenge, made April 27 against the Padres [VIDEO].

There’s an early season example of 1) why pitchers shouldn’t challenge and 2) why you shouldn’t challenge in the first inning. More on what happened there from Jordan Bastian at MLB.com:

The first domino was the errant first-inning challenge by Boyd. The pitch in question was a 2-1 heater that was shown to be 0.7 inches off the edge of the zone, per the Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) Challenge System. Boyd then missed with another fastball to issue a leadoff walk to [Ramon] Laureano.

“You never know how it’s going to shake out,” Boyd said. “But it’s putting our hitters and our team in a hole when you do something like that in that situation, so early in the game. It was not a smart move on my part. I regretted it. I’ll do my best to not make that mistake again.”

Two batters later, Boyd surrendered a run-scoring single to Jackson Merrill. The lefty later walked Miguel Andujar before giving up a two-run double to Ty France that capped off a three-run push for the Padres in that opening frame.

So who knows? Maybe that mistake rattled Boyd. The Cubs lost that game 9-7 and if they had won it, the Wild Card Series would have been at Wrigley Field. Maybe that wouldn’t have made a difference, but who knows?

The only other Cubs pitcher to challenge a pitch all year was Edward Cabrera. Here’s that challenge, April 11 vs. the Pirates [VIDEO].

As you can see, Oneil Cruz stole second and took third on an error. The pitch was overturned to make the count 2-2 instead of 3-1, but Cabrera walked Brandon Lowe anyway. The Pirates didn’t score in the inning and the Cubs eventually lost the game 4-3 in 11 innings.

After the Boyd mishap, it seems clear the Cubs told their pitchers to leave defensive challenges to their catchers.

And Cubs catchers were very, very good at ABS challenges.

Carson Kelly made 93 challenges and was correct on 68.8 percent of them, quite a bit better than the 58.6 percent league average for catchers. Kelly’s correct percentage was third-best among all catchers who made more than 50 challenges, behind J.T. Realmuto (86 challenges, 81.4 percent) and Salvador Perez (65 challenges, 70.8 percent).

Miguel Amaya made 76 challenges and was correct on 64.5 percent, which ranked ninth among catchers with more than 50 challenges.

The rest of the Cubs catcher challenges were made, before he was traded to the Angels, by Moisés Ballesteros, who made five and got two correct. Ballesteros caught quite a bit with the Angels and made 32 challenges there, getting 20 correct (62.5 percent).

Cubs hitters ranked eighth among all MLB teams in overturn percentage, 51.2 percent. If that doesn’t sound like much, the Diamondbacks were first at 56.9 percent and the Mariners and Braves tied for last at 41.7 percent. It seems clear that catchers are far better than hitters at ABS challenges.

Alex Bregman made the most ABS challenges of any Cubs hitter, 29, and he was just above the team average at 51.7 percent. The best Cubs hitter (15 challenges or more) was Seiya Suzuki, who made 17 and got 12 correct (70.6 percent). The worst (again, 15 challenges or more) was Michael Busch, who made 20 and got only seven correct (35 percent).

Overall, this system has to be regarded as a success. It’s corrected some of the most egregiously bad ball-and-strike calls, and as players got better at it, even some pitches that were closer calls were overturned. I know some here would like MLB to go to full ABS, but as I wrote here earlier this year, MLB likes the current system for a number of reasons. So do I, as it gets fans involved at the ballparks, cheering when their team is successful in a challenge. I like that. The only thing I might change is to give teams a third challenge. That might open things up to have some more challenges made in the early innings, although per this chart, there seems to be a fairly even balance on challenges made per inning.

All the data in this article is from baseball-reference.com, though you can also find detailed ABS data at Baseball Savant.

Diamondbacks News

Diamondbacks moving on from longtime broadcast Steve Berthiaume by Alex Weiner [Arizona Sports]

The Arizona Diamondbacks will not retain longtime television play-by-play broadcaster Steve Berthiaume, the team confirmed to Arizona Sports on Monday.

Nick Piecoro of AZCentral.com first reported the decision, as Berthiaume’s contract with the club is up. The team has not decided who will take over as the lead TV play-by-play commentator.

Chris Garagiola has been the radio voice of the Diamondbacks since Greg Schulte retired after the 2023 playoffs, and Piecoro reported that he will be considered.

D-backs Reportedly Parting With Longtime Play-by-Play Broadcaster by Alex D’Agostino [SI]

Berthiaume, according to Piecoro’s report, was caught off guard by the news. He told the Arizona Republic he was both “surprised and disappointed” by the decision. 

“I’m very appreciative to have had the opportunity to connect with our fan base these past 14 years,” Berthiaume also told the Republic. “I’ve always tried to put the club first. I enjoyed my Arizona experience and I’m grateful to all my friends and colleagues in our broadcast group.”

D-backs lefty pitching prospect Ariola brings elite K rate to Arizona Fall League by Jesse Borek [MLB]

There were 2,402 pitchers who accrued at least 30 innings this season across the Minor Leagues — and nobody struck out a higher percentage of hitters than the D-backs’ Joe Ariola (45.8%).

The 6-foot-2 southpaw doesn’t throw in the triple digits. He doesn’t spin the ball at an astronomically high rate. His extension is solid but not particularly notable. But he’s intrinsically focused on winning the battle with two strikes in the count. Once there, he goes for the punchout.

“How fast can I get to two strikes? Because my pitches played best in those counts,” Ariola said of his mindset. “I know my two weapons [fastball and curveball] have some swing-and-miss potential. But if you’re not in the right counts to get the swing-and-miss, they’re not going to happen.

Around the League

First home playoff clincher in 120 years? White Sox on cusp of making it happen by Scott Merkin [MLB]

Where were you in 1906?

Since anyone born in that magical time would be a robust 120 years old at this point, clearly nobody was around. But it was that year, on Oct. 14, to be exact, when the White Sox toppled the Cubs at South Side Park to win the World Series in six games.

That was the last playoff-clinching victory for the White Sox at home. Until now, it was their only potential playoff clincher at home. But that statistic could be updated Wednesday at Rate Field.

Relentless Rays give Schlittler fits in 4-run 5th, move 1 win from ALCS by Adam Berry [MLB]

The Rays knew they were in for a challenge against American League Cy Young Award favorite Cam Schlittler on Monday night at Tropicana Field. The Yankees’ ace has shown in a short time that he’s made for big moments, especially in unfriendly environments, and he was as tough to hit as just about any pitcher in baseball.

So, what was Tampa Bay’s plan heading into Game 2 of the American League Division Series?

“Just kind of do what we’ve been doing all year,” shortstop Taylor Walls said.

Another playoff roof ball?! Rays record out after Jones’ fly dings Trop catwalk by Matthew Leach[MLB]

In the second inning of Monday’s ALDS Game 2, Yankees outfielder Spencer Jones hit a high popup into shallow right-center field. And then … the waiting. Four Rays converged on a spot in the Tropicana Field outfield and waited.

For 10 seconds.

Finally, the ball came down, Mesa made the catch and Jones was out. The ball had hit one of the catwalks under the roof of the Trop — specifically the B-ring — and by rule it was in play. The Rays’ fielders kept their cool, and Mesa recorded the out.

Padres deny Miller was pitch-tipping, might limit him to 1 inning by Alden Gonzalez [ESPN]

Side-by-side still shots posted on social media appeared to show Miller’s hand placement in his glove from the set position being slightly different based on whether he was throwing a fastball or a slider, something a runner on second base might notice and relay to the hitter. The Brewers got a runner on second base early, when Yelich drew a one-out walk and succeeded on an attempted steal.

Stammen did not indicate one way or another, but he also dismissed the thought.

“We’ve got a crew of people that are dedicated to that every single day,” Stammen said. “That is their sole job. We’re well aware of what’s going on with our pitchers, well aware of what’s going on with the Brewers’ pitchers and how they do things. It’s part of our daily acumen. The internet can go crazy and take things farther than they need to go. We feel good about our process within that situation.”

Padres Activate Walker Buehler Onto NLDS Roster by Anthony Franco [MLB Trade Rumors]

It remains to be seen if Buehler will be a factor. The Padres have tabbed Nick Pivetta to take the ball in Game 3, the first of what they hope will be three straight must-win games. The Brewers are countering with Dustin May. Neither team has announced plans for a potential Game 4 if the Padres stave off elimination.

San Diego manager Craig Stammen told reporters (including Jared Greenspan of MLB.com) that Buehler is an option for the start in Game 4 but will be available in relief tomorrow. It’s an all hands on deck approach for the Friars with their backs against the wall. Buehler turned in a 4.63 ERA with a slightly below-average 20.1% strikeout rate over 32 starts this year, ranking second on the team in innings. He struggled early but had a solid 3.62 ERA after the All-Star Break.