This early part of the season is the most crucial for waiver wire pick-ups.
First, because adding a player now gives them practically the entire season to accumulate stats and help your team. Also, because we are in a sweet-spot where we have the opportunity to learn a lot about fringey players very quickly.
Important pieces of data like playing time trends, new skill growth, and player adjustments are only just beginning to form and spotting any of them first will give you a huge advantage over the rest of your league.
Here are three players that are under 40% rostered on Yahoo leagues that you should strongly consider adding.
If you want a larger list, Eric Samulski wrote his extended waiver wire piece on Sunday.
Mookie Betts has bounced back from illness, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. is in a great spot with the Yankees.
Lars Nootbaar OF, Cardinals
(31% Rostered on Yahoo)
An eternal breakout pick, Nootbaar may finally be turning the corner. He is 6-for-13 through four games with two home runs, five RBI, and five runs scored as the Cardinals’ lead-off hitter. He’s set the table beautifully from that spot too with five walks to just one strikeout.
Possibly most importantly for Nootbaar is the trust his manager has shown in him. In the past, Nootbaar regularly sat against left-handed pitchers as a left-handed hitter despite very marginal platoon splits (.787 career OPS vs. RHP and .751 OPS vs. LHP).
I mentioned he’d been hitting lead-off. It was assumed these platoons would continue to some degree this season either by him sitting against lefties or at least moving down in the order, each of which had happened in the past.
That was not the case on Monday when he hit lead-off against left-hander Tyler Anderson. He quickly rewarded that trust in him with a lead-off home run.
If he’s not being platooned AND hitting lead-off every day there’s no reason his rostership should be this low. Nootbaar has the skill set to hit 25 homers with a decent batting average, huge counting stats from the lead-off spot, and 10 or so stolen bases. That’s a highly useful player in any format.
The one key for Nootbaar that could make him a true breakout and finally cash in on years of being an advanced stats darling is simply swinging more often. He gets a lot of credit for having one of the lowest chase rates in the league. That’s partially due to his discerning eye, but also because few players swing less often than him. Sometimes that approach helps him, sometimes it severely limits his potential production.
So far this season – in a very small sample – he’s swinging more often across the board. So he’s chasing more while also taking more hacks at pitches in the zone. It would probably be good for Nootbaar to be a bit more reckless with his swing decisions since he has legitimate power and often does damage when he makes contact.
There’s too much upside here with too stable of a floor for him to be available in nearly 70% of leagues.
Kris Bubic SP, Royals
(18% Rostered on Yahoo)
Bubic made a triumphant return to the Royals’ rotation Monday after a long recovery from Tommy John surgery and an impressive run towards the end of last season as a reliever. He started his day by striking out Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich, and William Contreras consecutively and never looked back.
In the end, he worked six innings, struck out eight, and didn’t allow a single run. It was a fantastic start for Bubic and one that looked like it could lead to a great season.
Entering the play, Bubic had a career 4.99 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and 20.1 K% as a starting pitcher. In that time, opposing hitters had a .282 batting average, .358 on-base percentage, and .463 slugging percentage against him. That’s nearly an identical slash line to what William Contreras did last season.
Those horrific numbers weren’t a surprise either. He mixed a pedestrian fastball that sat in the low 90s with a changeup that didn’t miss any bats and an inconsistent curveball. It was not a good repertoire… at all.
Bubic worked hard during his rehab to improve that fastball though. It always had potential with his low release point and relatively flat release angle as a somewhat sidearming lefty. He also had above average extension. The foundation for a plus fastball was there.
When he returned last season, that fastball had 17 inches of inverted vertical break (aka IVB or ‘rising’ action) which was about two inches better than his career average. By the end of the season, that was up over 18 inches.
On Monday his fastball averaged 19 inches of IVB and touched 95 MPH. That’s firmly an above average fastball for a left-handed starting pitcher based on movement and velocity.
It’s impressive he was able to not only carry those improvements he made pitching in relief to the rotation, but once again improve his fastball characteristics. It resulted in a whopping 11 fastball whiffs and proved that pitch can be the star in what’s quickly become an above average arsenal.
Also, Bubic worked in a tight, gyro slider or cutter type pitch. He has never thrown anything in his career with characteristics similar to it before and it forced plenty of soft contact. That plus his sweeper and changeup will be great compliments to what’s now a plus fastball and has me adding Bubic anywhere he’s available.
Tylor Megill SP, Mets
(12% Rostered on Yahoo)
Hello darkness, my old friend.
I've come to talk with you again.
Because a vision’s softly creeping.
Left its seeds while I was sleeping.
And the vision that was planted in my brain.
Still remains.
Leave it to Simon & Garfunkel to perfectly encapsulate how I am feeling about Megill right now despite that song being released 32 years before I was born. Alas, another strong spring for the big right-hander gave way to an impressive start last Friday against the Astros and has me believing in his potential once again.
In his season debut, Megill allowed three hits, one walk, one earned run, and struck out six batters over five-plus innings. That’s a fine start against a good lineup in a difficult park to pitch in. Yet, my confidence comes more from how he looked than how his line wound up.
Megill has always leaned on his explosive fastball. It can get up near triple digits with solid life and provides a valuable foundation for the rest of his repertoire. The only problem, he’s never been able to develop the rest of that repertoire.
He’s experimented with a handful of different slider shapes, changeups, a cutter, some curveballs, and even tried to learn Kodai Senga’s patented ghost fork ahead of last season. It all amounted to a big nothing.
Then, last season in triple-A, Megill got the hang of a sinker. It stretched to the upper 90s and had a plus movement profile, just like his fastball.
That set him up for a nice six-start run down the stretch where he had a 2.32 ERA and 28.1 K% over 30 innings as the Mets were scratching and clawing their way into the playoffs. They wouldn’t have gotten there without Megill’s strong September.
It was still a very fastball/sinker heavy approach though. Those two pitches accounted for nearly two thirds of Megill’s offerings during that run. It worked for a little while, but he still needed to figure out a consistent breaking ball in order to take the next step
On Friday, against the Astros, he showed a new slider variant that finally looks like it could stick. He took a tick off it compared to last season and it had five more inches of vertical drop on average.
That added depth with very little horizontal movement makes it likely this pitch will be effective against hitters from both sides of the plate. The Astros swung and missed at it five times and often looked silly doing it.
He was confident and imposing on the mound too. I mean, he is six feet, seven inches tall and pushing 240 pounds with a blazing fastball. Would it really be shocking if it all came together for him a little bit later than most?
This is a starting pitcher with above average stuff who plays for a great team with a great defense and great home park to pitch in. That’s a far sturdier foundation than his low rostership would indicate. Now, it’s just about consistency and execution for Megill to become a true top-50 type pitcher.
Matthew Pouliot