The conventional wisdom holds that Dec. 15 marks the unofficial opening of the NBA trade season, because that's when many players who signed new contracts or extensions this past summer become eligible to be traded. The reality is that it will be Dec. 19-22 in Orlando — when the NBA G League Winter Showcase takes place — that talks really start to ramp up. It's when the GMs and front offices of all 30 teams gather together, ostensibly to watch the best G-League players, but it's an event without fans (just basketball people and some media), and you can watch as certain GMs peel off and start side conversations just 30 feet from the court. It's where business starts to get done.
Heading into all of that, here are the latest NBA Trade rumors, starting with the biggest name potentially on the board.
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Antetokounmpo being off the court for 2-4 weeks with a calf strain is not about to slow the trade rumors surrounding him, or the fake trades we are all seeing, after he reportedly restarted talks about his future with the Bucks front office. Here are a few updates.
• Milwaukee may find it hard to land a lot of first-round picks. Antetokounmpo's performance is not in question, he has been playing at an MVP-level this season. However, he turns 31 on Saturday and is looking for a massive contract extension that will start in the 2027-28 or 2028-29 season, his age-33 or age-34 season (he has a $62.8 million player option for 2027-28). The recent history of teams giving up a massive haul of first-round picks for players entering their mid-30s — even elite players — has them pausing and seriously considering how many picks they would trade for Antetokounmpo. Brian Windhorst of ESPN put it this way on his Hoop Collective Podcast:
"What I'm telling you is that when I talk to executives and these executives are not in trade talks with the Bucks or another for a star player right now, the mood in the NBA right now is not give up four first round picks for anybody ... All these teams are worried about getting into apron trouble where they can't reset their rosters...
"This is how teams are thinking right now. They're a little freaked about the aprons. There ain't going to be no five first round pick trades. I know that we saw those for a while. That's just not to happen."
• The Pelicans' 2026 draft pick could determine where Antetokounmpo lands. Antetokounmpo may have New York at the top of his wish list, but talking to league sources the last 48 hours, three teams come up as being able to put together better offers and may be places Antetokounmpo would be open to: Atlanta, San Antonio and Houston.
Atlanta is the team I hear the most (assuming Antetokounmpo wants to stay in the East). It can make a trade based around Trae Young and recent No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher, but the biggest prize would be the Pelicans' first-round pick in next June's draft (which Atlanta controls because Joe Dumars traded it away to move up last June and select Derik Queen in a head-shaking move). NBA insider Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report and The Stein Line said he had been told all season there was no way the Hawks were surrendering what could be a very high pick in a deep draft at the top, but then added that landing Antetokounmpo in his prime and just going for it — with a team that has gone 11-7 while Young is out injured and has had a much improved defense — has to have the Atlanta front office rethinking that stance.
• The Oklahoma City factor. While Oklahoma City has the picks and players to make a serious offer for Antetokounmpo if they wanted to, why would they? At 21-1 with a record point differential and a locker room that gets along well, OKC looks like a juggernaut this season.
OKC's dominance is something Houston and San Antonio have to take into consideration, as Zach Lowe of The Ringer discussed on his podcast. Do the Spurs look at this season's Thunder, then look at how young their roster is, and decide to be patient and take their swings at OKC in a couple of years, when their roster is peaking, and the luxury tax is forcing changes to the Thunder? Same thing with Houston, which looks like a contender now, although Kevin Durant being on that team does somewhat change the equation. The bottom line is that both of those teams may look at the big picture and step back.
• The two big questions about an Antetokounmpo trade. In talking to league sources about the trade, two big themes and questions emerged:
1) Will Antetokounmpo (through his agent) actually demand a trade this time? He has danced up to this line but stepped back, not wanting to come off as the bad guy forcing his way out of Milwaukee (a tactic that has worked; the Bucks have upgraded their roster as best they could each time). Yes, Antetokounmpo asked the Bucks to explore a trade with the Knicks last summer, but by the time he did there was no deal to be made. This would be different. It also feels different on Antetokounmpo's end this time.
2) If Antetokounmpo is available via trade, will the Bucks work with the two-time MVP to get him where he wants to go (presumably New York, although maybe another city or two is on the list), or will they look for the best offer regardless of destination? Antetokounmpo has some leverage because he can be a free agent in the summer of 2027, but plenty of teams would be willing to take the risk on him for a year at the right price.
Anthony Davis
Davis getting traded feels more like an offseason move than one that happens during the season, especially since the team has looked better of late, winning three straight (games against Oklahoma City and Houston in the coming days are good measuring sticks).
When ESPN’s Windhorst was talking about teams not wanting to give up many first-round picks in a trade, that was aimed more at Anthony Davis and the market for him than at Antetokounmpo. Davis is 32, with a history of nagging injuries, and also is up for a contract extension this summer — a potentially massive one — which has teams a little hesitant. Is an aging Davis going to be worth the money he is asking? Windhorst added this on his podcast.
"When I have heard what people are saying Anthony Davis' trade value is right now, not because of him as a player, to be clear, not because he's diminished as a player, but because of the idea of paying an injury-prone mid-30s guy $50, $60 million dollars in the apron era is unpalatable."
James Harden, Kawhi Leonard
The Clippers have never hit the fact that they are built to pivot in 2027, when everyone except Ivica Zubac comes off the books. However, after a dreadful start to this season, could the Clippers accelerate that timeline by trading James Harden or Kawhi Leonard?
Good luck with that. Especially with Leonard, who is making $50 million this season and is guaranteed the same next season, and comes with a lengthy injury history. Harden, playing like an All-Star at a more reasonable $39.2 million (with a player option for $42 million next season), might be a different story, as Tim Bontemps wrote at ESPN.
"The feedback from league insiders has been that, while a team would take on Harden, it may be more difficult to find a landing spot for Leonard because of his injury and the Aspiration case still ongoing. "James has maybe neutral value," an East scout said. "Kawhi Leonard has negative value."
Trae Young/LaMelo Ball/Ja Morant
This group of point guards is who I am watching most closely heading into the trade deadline, thinking that one of their teams might decide it's time to make a major pivot and move on if the right deal comes along.
Except that deal is unlikely to materialize, as ESPN’s Tim MacMahon and Bobby Marks wrote. They said these comments summed up the prevailing opinion on all three.
"I wouldn't want any of them," a Western Conference general manager told ESPN.
"They all might have negative value," an Eastern Conference executive said.
When we get to next offseason that may change for at least one and maybe all three of them, but don't bet on a deadline deal.
