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It's another full slate of games across the Majors, and I've pinpointed three quality picks in my MLB player props analysis. 

I'm eyeing Martin Perez to carve up a divisional rival, while Jacob deGrom should find his best once again in Arlington, and Alex Bregman also gets a solid matchup as he looks to keep swinging a hot bat.

Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, Sep. 5. 

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Martin Perez	Under 2.5 earned runs	-122
Jacob deGrom	Under 1.5 earned runs	+111
Alex Bregman	Over 1.5 total bases	+131

Martin Perez Under 2.5 earned runs (-122)

Atlanta Braves lefty Martin Perez has been holding it down lately. While his underlying metrics suggest otherwise, the veteran owns a 1.86 ERA across his last two starts. 

In fact, he's also allowed one earned run or fewer in five of his last six appearances. One difficult outing during that span inflated his xERA, but Perez has looked dominant in recent starts. 

Perez has allowed minimal barrels, and he already tossed six scoreless innings against the Philadelphia Phillies earlier this season. 

Play up to -140. 

• Time: 6:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: BravesVision, NBC Sports Philadelphia

Jacob deGrom Under 1.5 earned runs (+111)

Jacob deGrom has had issues at times this season, but when he's at home, the righty has been utterly dominant. The Texas Rangers starter owns a 2.13 FIP at Globe Life Field this season. 

Two of deGrom's last three home outings were scoreless gems, and he also allowed just one earned run in the other. The former Cy Young winner will now face a Tampa Bay Rays lineup that is in very poor offensive form, compiling an 85 wRC+ across the last week. 

Expect another gem from the 38-year-old. 

Play down to +100. 

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Rays.TV, RSN

Alex Bregman Over 1.5 total bases (+147)

The Chicago Cubs' offense is hot in general, and Alex Bregman is playing a massive part. The third baseman has a ridiculous .692 ISO and .423 average over his last six contests.

Of his 11 hits during that span, eight have been for extra bases. He's smacked three doubles and five home runs. Bregman has cashed the Over in total bases in four of his previous five games.

Bregman faces Ryan Gusto tonight, who has a vulnerable 4.54 xERA over the last month. The Miami Marlins pen is also shaky at the moment. 

The slugger will stay hot. 

Play down to +110. 

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marlins.TV, Marquee Sports Network

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Two months ago, Charlie Condon (No. 2 PuRP) looked close to running out of things to prove in Triple-A.

Condon was coming off a June in which he hit .337/.462/.814 with 10 home runs in 106 plate appearances.

The power expected from the third-overall pick in the 2024 draft had arrived without Condon abandoning the patience that carried him through a quieter start to the season.

Eventually, though, pitchers found a response.

After posting a 1.276 OPS in June, Condon fell to .758 in July and .695 in August. Ten home runs in one month became four over the next two.

Condon has not homered since Aug. 6.

The downturn has been even sharper recently. Over the last 30 days, Condon is hitting .200/.330/.300 with a 56 wRC+. Even so, his full Triple-A season still sits at .267/.387/.496 with a 113 wRC+.

This is still the best power season of Condon’s professional career. His 22 home runs, .496 slugging percentage and .883 OPS are all career highs, as are his 117 games and 446 at-bats. He is also playing deeper into a season than he ever has as a professional.

So, what changed?

Condon made the first adjustment

The June breakout did not come from a major change in how pitchers attacked Condon.

Through May 22, he was hitting .239/.369/.377 with four home runs in 195 plate appearances. From May 23 through the end of June, he hit .351/.474/.865 with 14 home runs in 137 plate appearances.

His zone rate moved only from 47.6% to 49.5%, while breaking-ball usage barely changed.

Condon changed.

He chased less, missed less and elevated more of the contact he did make.

Early in the season, nearly half of Condon’s tracked balls in play were on the ground. During the power surge, that fell to roughly one-third. His contact got harder at the same time, and his barrel rate nearly tripled.

The recent downturn has not fully undone that adjustment. Condon’s ground-ball rate remained between 34.0% and 38.5% in July and August, while his average launch angle stayed near 14 degrees.

He is still lifting the ball. The pitches available for him to drive have changed.

Pitchers stopped giving him as many strikes

The response was not a wholesale change in pitch selection.

Breaking balls accounted for 36.8% of the pitches Condon saw in June and 39.5% in August. Their usage with no strikes was identical in both months.

The difference became more pronounced later in the count. With two strikes, breaking-ball usage increased from 36.1% in June to 45.6% in August.

The bigger change was location.

Condon saw 49.0% of all pitches in the strike zone during June. That fell to 42.1% in August.

The decline appeared at every stage of the count. August’s zone rate fell to 45.8% with no strikes, 40.9% with one strike and 37.7% with two.

It also cut across the pitches Condon saw most often. The zone rate on four-seamers fell from 50.4% in June to 41.1% in August. Sliders dropped from 44.3% to 38.4%, while sinkers went from 66.7% to 47.5%.

The adjustment shows up in repeat matchups.

On June 21, Ryan Weiss gave Condon a first-pitch four-seamer in the zone. Condon hit it at 97.9 mph for a single. In his three later plate appearances against Weiss, Weiss threw only one four-seamer, located it outside the zone and started Condon with three different pitches. Condon went 0-for-2 with a walk.

Brandon McPherson followed a similar path. Condon hit an in-zone four-seamer 101.7 mph for a single in June. When they met again in August, McPherson threw only five of 14 pitches in the zone and finished an eight-pitch strikeout with a cutter below it.

The 10 pitchers Condon faced in June and again in July or August reduced their collective zone rate from 49.3% to 43.3%. Their four-seam zone rate fell from 55.0% to 37.5%.

Condon followed them.

His chase rate climbed from 15.0% in June to 24.5% in August. That is not an extreme rate on its own, but the nearly 10-point increase came as pitchers were giving him fewer strikes.

Fewer opportunities were only part of it

If pitchers had merely stopped giving Condon hittable pitches, his decline could mostly be explained by opportunity.

His contact quality declined, too.

His average exit velocity on balls in play fell from 91.7 mph in June to 86.7 mph in August. His hard-hit rate dropped from 52.4% to 27.7%.

Four-seam fastballs remain the pitch Condon has handled best.

Although Condon’s hard-hit rate against them declined, his expected slugging on four-seam contact remained strong. He can still hurt the pitch. He simply received fewer four-seamers in the strike zone.

The sharper deterioration came against sliders and changeups.

Condon’s hard-hit rate against sliders fell from 46.2% in June to 20.8% across July and August. Against changeups, it dropped from 71.4% to 18.8%, while his whiff rate more than doubled.

The June changeup sample included only seven balls in play, so the exact size of the decline should be treated carefully.

Condon’s issues against secondary pitches are not limited to one shape.

Condon’s swing-and-miss stands out less because of one extreme weakness than because it remains elevated across the board. His whiff rate sits between 37.0% and 40.6% against sliders, changeups, sweepers and curveballs.

Across a comparison group of 20 Triple-A hitters, the average whiff rates were 32.6% against sliders, 30.7% against curveballs, 30.1% against sweepers and 29.1% against changeups. Condon sits roughly eight to 11 percentage points higher against all four.

Individual hitters in that group showed worse numbers against particular pitches, but many had considerably more variation from one secondary pitch to another. Condon does not.

The hard-hit comparison is less concerning against most secondary pitches. Condon is only a few points below the group against sliders, changeups, and sweepers. Against sliders, his .375 xwOBA and 34.4% hard-hit rate show that he can still do damage when he connects. Curveballs stand apart, producing a .195 xwOBA and no hard-hit balls in the tracked sample.

Overall, the issue was not simply more breaking balls. Pitchers changed where and when they used them. They reduced the number of hittable four-seamers he saw, leaned on secondary pitches to change the shape of the at-bat and increasingly forced him to deal with pitches he was less likely to drive.

The path back to harder contact likely starts with pitch selection. As Condon expanded more often, he put more difficult pitches into play — pitches he could reach, but not necessarily drive.

That will not solve everything. He also has to do more damage against the sliders and changeups that do enter his hitting window.

The next adjustment

Pitchers have changed how they attack Condon.

For much of July and August, it worked.

That does not erase the adjustment Condon made earlier in the season. His launch-angle gains have largely held even as the quality of his contact declined. That decline has carried into September. Through his first four games of the month, Condon is 2-for-15 with seven strikeouts.

Thursday offered one encouraging sign. Condon lined a slider to center field at 103.9 mph for his 22nd double, providing a reminder that he can still punish the pitch when he gets one to hit. It does not mean he has adjusted back, but it gives him something to build on over the final weeks of the season.

There will be plenty of time this offseason to speculate about where Condon fits into the Rockies’ plans for 2027 and beyond.

For now, the more immediate question is simpler.

Pitchers adjusted to him.

The rest of September gives Condon a chance to start adjusting back.

On the farm

Triple-A:Albuquerque Isotopes 11, Tacoma Rainiers 6

The Albuquerque Isotopes (66-70) erased a 3-2 deficit with five runs in the fifth inning and pulled away for an 11-6 win over the Tacoma Rainiers (65-71) on Friday night. Tyler Freeman delivered the go-ahead blow with a two-run single, and Braxton Fulford followed with a three-run homer that stretched the lead to 7-3.

Fulford added a solo homer in the seventh to finish 2-for-4 with two home runs and four RBI. Drew Avans went 4-for-5 with four runs scored and a homer, Roc Riggio collected three hits with two doubles, and Sterlin Thompson went 2-for-4 with a double, walk, RBI and stolen base. Freeman drove in two, while Charlie Condon went 0-for-4 with a walk and two strikeouts.

Eiberson Castellano earned the win after allowing three runs on seven hits and two walks over five innings while striking out four. Albuquerque’s bullpen allowed three runs over the final four innings, with TJ Shook recording the final five outs without allowing a run. The Isotopes finished with 14 hits, four home runs and went 4-for-9 with runners in scoring position while leaving just five men on base. Tacoma went 4-for-17 with runners in scoring position, stranded 11 runners and struck out seven times.

Double-A:Hartford Yard Goats 4, Reading Fightin Phils 3

The Hartford Yard Goats (63-66) walked off the Reading Fightin Phils (65-64), 4-3, after surrendering the tying run in the top of the ninth. Zach Kokoska opened the bottom of the inning with his second double of the night, moved to third on Jimmy Obertop’s sacrifice bunt and scored the winning run when Jared Thomas was hit by a pitch with the bases loaded.

Kokoska went 2-for-3 with two doubles, three runs scored, an RBI and a walk, and was at the center of Hartford’s offense throughout the night. His RBI double tied the game 2-2 in the seventh before Kyle Karros followed later in the inning with an RBI double to put the Yard Goats ahead. GJ Hill also doubled home a run, while Jack O’Dowd went 0-for-4. Hartford finished with seven hits, went 2-for-9 with runners in scoring position and stranded nine.

Konner Eaton turned in a strong start, allowing one run on four hits and two walks over six innings while striking out five. Hunter Mann followed with five strikeouts of his own in two innings, allowing one run, before Fidel Ulloa worked the ninth. Ulloa surrendered Caleb Ricketts’ game-tying solo homer but struck out two and picked up the win after Hartford answered in the bottom half. Yard Goats pitching combined for 12 strikeouts and held Reading to 1-for-10 with runners in scoring position, although the Fightin Phils left eight runners on base.

High-A:Spokane Indians 7, Everett AquaSox 6

The Spokane Indians (57-72) erased a five-run deficit and walked off the Everett AquaSox (66-64), 7-6, with two runs in the ninth. Everett led 6-1 after four innings, but Spokane chipped away with a run in the sixth and three more in the eighth before Ethan Hedges tied the game with an RBI single in the ninth. Wilder Dalis followed with a sharp single to left to bring home Max Belyeu with the winning run.

Alan Espinal helped fuel the comeback, going 1-for-4 with a two-run triple in the eighth that cut the deficit to 6-4. Kelvin Hidalgo followed with an RBI groundout to make it a one-run game. Dalis finished 2-for-5 with a double and the walk-off RBI, while Tommy Hopfe went 2-for-3 with two doubles and a walk. Hedges added a hit, walk and RBI, and Jacob Hinderleider went 2-for-4. Spokane finished with 10 hits, went 4-for-10 with runners in scoring position and left eight men on base.

Angel Jimenez struggled through five innings, allowing six runs on eight hits and two walks while striking out three. The bullpen kept Spokane in it from there: Alberto Pacheco worked two scoreless innings, Austin Emener added a scoreless eighth, and Seth Clausen struck out all three batters he faced in the ninth. Spokane pitching combined for seven strikeouts, while Everett went 4-for-11 with runners in scoring position and stranded eight.

Single-A:San Jose Giants 8, Fresno Grizzlies 5 (10 innings)

The Fresno Grizzlies (69-61) rallied from an early three-run deficit and forced extra innings, but the San Jose Giants (82-48) scored four times in the 10th to pull away for an 8-5 win.

Daniel Jackson continued his strong debut season, going 2-for-4 with a walk, a stolen base and a run scored. He singled and stole second in the fourth before scoring on a Cort MacDonald single, then added another hit in the 10th. Cristian Arguelles went 2-for-5 with two doubles and an RBI, Ashly Andujar collected two hits, and Jack Natili drove in Fresno’s final run with a sacrifice fly in the bottom of the 10th. The Grizzlies finished with 10 hits, went 3-for-13 with runners in scoring position and left nine men on base.

Brady Parker gave Fresno six innings, allowing three runs on five hits and one walk while striking out seven. Manuel Olivares covered the final four innings and struck out six, but San Jose got to him for five runs, four earned, including four in the 10th. Fresno pitching combined for 13 strikeouts and just two walks, but the late damage was enough to spoil the comeback.

Veteran Catcher Providing ‘Good Vibrations’ for Rockies in Last-Place Year | SI.com

Ryan Boman of Sports Illustrated profiles Brett Sullivan’s long road to the Rockies, the veteran presence he has brought to the clubhouse and whether he could stick around beyond this season. With Hunter Goodman established as the starter, Sullivan has still carved out value as a backup catcher and steady, upbeat voice on a young team.

Baltimore Orioles Manager Craig Albernaz Drops Blunt Quote After Series Loss To Rockies | heavy.com

Scott Roche of Heavy looks at Baltimore’s frustration after dropping two of three to the Rockies, including Wednesday’s 11-inning walk-off loss. Orioles manager Craig Albernaz called the defeat “very disappointing” as Baltimore missed a chance to gain ground in a crowded AL Wild Card race.

Gabriel Hughes still in search of first MLB win | purplerow.com

Duane DaPron of Purple Row looks at Gabriel Hughes’ continued search for his first major-league win after another encouraging outing against Baltimore. Hughes allowed just one run over 4.2 innings, and DaPron examines both the progress Hughes has shown and the lessons the rookie is taking from a difficult August as he tries to establish himself in the rotation.

All 30 teams set to open Spring Training 2027 on same day | MLB.com

Brent Maguire of MLB.com breaks down the newly released 2027 Spring Training schedule, with all 30 teams set to open play on Feb. 19. The schedule also includes several exhibition games at MLB parks before the regular season begins March 24.

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks! 

A few months after Mark Walter became the chairman and majority owner of the Dodgers, he was told a fan in one of Dodger Stadium’s upper decks was upset about a mix-up with his tickets.

On most days, that would be an issue for an usher to handle. Not on this day.

Walter and team president Stan Kasten decided to address the problem, climbing the narrow stairwell to the top level where they found the fan and listened to his complaint.

“Obviously the guy was floored just to see me, let alone to see Mark,” Kasten said. “Mark, he’s incredibly comfortable around people. Not just his peers, but average fans. Because he considers himself an average fan.”

The Dodgers’ billionaire owner, hardly an average fan, is under intense scrutiny these days, following the sale of his controlling interest in the Lakers and a federal investigation into his business dealings. The drama has come as a surprise to some who know Walter, who has earned respect for his financial acumen and, despite his purchases of high-profile sports teams, has tended to dodge publicity.

He put together the ownership group that bought the Dodgers in 2012. Since the purchase, the team has played in five World Series, winning three, and finished first in the National League West 12 times in 14 seasons. It’s the greatest sustained run of excellence in baseball in more than a generation.

If the Dodgers win a third straight World Series this fall, they will become the first team to three-peat this century. And much of the credit for that would go to Walter, who has funded a front office that consistently has outspent the rest of Major League Baseball, signing seven players to contracts worth more than $2 billion combined in the last six years alone.

Now Walter faces questions about his future owning the Dodgers. Last month, his companies became the focus of two federal inquiries and a Delaware insurance regulatory review.

He is helping pay off some of his companies’ loans and sold the Lakers at a record valuation of $12.5 billion, a deal Walter’s holding company, TWG Global, says was not forced by the inquiries. Still, the sale raised questions about whether he will sell his ownership stakes in other sports properties, including English soccer club Chelsea, the Cadillac Formula One racing team, the WNBA’s Sparks and the Professional Women’s Hockey League.

Walter declined to comment for this article.

Kasten insists Walter has no plans to divest from the Dodgers. “The sports portfolio is going to remain intact,” Kasten said. “It’s important to Mark. I can’t tell you how important the Dodgers are to him.”

Still, Kasten acknowledges the decision to sell the Lakers to former Disney chief executive Bob Iger and venture capitalist Joshua Kushner just 14 months after agreeing to buy the team “was not a planned thing,” either.

Like most of the middle-class kids in the class of 1978 at Jefferson High in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, Walter worked in high school.

“He pumped gas and he played golf,” recalled Cathy Boland Polito, Walter’s date for the senior prom who is now a retired medical technologist living in Oro Valley, Ariz.

Walter hardly stood out in his graduating class of about 350 students. He was athletic but not a stud. He was a good student, especially in math, but not a nerd.

“He was friendly. He was nice,” Polito said. “Everybody sort of knew him.”

Walter went to Creighton University , where he studied accounting and business while playing intramural sports and participating in the philosophy society. Three years later, he earned a law degree from Northwestern.

Walter met his wife, Kimbra, in Chicago, where they raised their daughter, Samantha.

After a decade split between a Chicago law firm and First Chicago Capital Markets, a financial services and securities brokerage, Walter founded an investment firm, Liberty Hampshire Co., in 1996. While there he met J. Todd Morley, who connected him with the Guggenheim family fortune. The introduction quickly led to the formation of Guggenheim Partners, an investment and advisory financial services firm that works with insurance services, among other assets, and one that has a Wall Street reputation for being low-key but aggressive.

Before the COVID-19 pandemic closed Guggenheim’s offices, the lobby of the firm’s Chicago headquarters on the 49th floor of the AT&T Center boasted one of Monet’s “Water Lilies” paintings, which hung behind the receptionist’s desk inside a glass case with an alarm. A Picasso brightened another office upstairs.

A company insider not authorized to speak publicly told The Times in 2012 that Walter was a disciplined, focused and careful investor.

“He is a guy with one of the great financial minds of our time,” the person said.

For Walter, 66, who grew up playing youth baseball about 50 miles from the Iowa cornfield that became Kevin Costner’s “Field of Dreams,” that financial success was all well and good. But the longtime Chicago Cubs season-ticket holder really was a die-hard baseball fan whose dream was to own a sports franchise.

Walter first explored a purchase of the Houston Astros, who eventually were sold to Houston businessman Jim Crane for $615 million ahead of the 2012 season. So Walter pivoted and formed Guggenheim Baseball Management, a group that included Kasten, Lakers Hall of Famer Magic Johnson, movie producer Peter Guber and investors Bobby Patton and Todd Boehly, to buy the Dodgers for $2.15 billion, a record at the time, in March 2012. Part of the money Walter invested in the deal came from the insurers he controlled, although that deal was vetted by state insurance regulators.

MLB engineered the sale of the Dodgers after previous owner Frank McCourt filed for bankruptcy.

“The market drove the price,” Walter told The Times after the sale closed, calling the investment “a multigenerational thing my daughter’s granddaughters will own.” Walter’s daughter, who grew up joining family trips to Los Angeles for Dodgers games, is a marketing manager at TWG Global.

Today, the team is the most lucrative in the sport and is on pace to become just the second this century to draw more than 4 million fans in consecutive seasons. The Dodgers could be sold for a valuation of $10 billion to $13 billion — at the higher end, three times as much as the record sale price for a major league team — an industry source told The Times on the condition of anonymity.

Through it all, Walter mostly has shunned attention. The exception is participating in on-field championship celebrations and joining the team for trips to the White House during the Trump and Biden administrations.

His smooth run was interrupted during the Dodgers’ run to the 2024 World Series when Walter suffered a stroke that kept him from the victory celebration. His recovery reportedly was arduous; Walter struggled to speak clearly for months and didn’t return to public view until the Dodgers’ season-opening series in Japan the following spring.

Walter didn’t publicly step down from any roles after the stroke, holding on to control of a vast portfolio. Since buying the Dodgers, he has invested in European soccer, women’s hockey and basketball, squash and auto racing. He also bought several historic buildings in the resort town of Crested Butte, Colo., where he and his philanthropist wife own a home. In 2013, the couple purchased the Wild Oak Plantation, a 17,000-acre wildlife preserve in northeast Florida, where the Walters now spend most of their time.

Kimbra has served on the boards of Chicago’s Lincoln Park Zoo, OneGoal nonprofit and Goodman Theatre and is active in the family’s charitable organization, TWF Causes, which focuses on social impact and conservation work, including owning or supporting several major conservation and private reserve properties in Africa.

The family has a limited political footprint, with Walter donating to the Democratic National Committee and the campaigns of then-presidential candidate Barack Obama and then-Chicago mayoral candidate Rahm Emanuel. The majority of their donations, however, run through their family foundation and the Dodgers Foundation.

“For us, my wife and I, and all of my partners believe that corporations have to be corporate citizens, and individuals who benefit from them, or who have built them, need to give back,” Walter told ESPN soon after buying the Dodgers. “You can’t take it with you, and you ought to do something philanthropic with it.”

But while he’s put money into charitable projects, he’s invested his heart and soul in the Dodgers, Kasten said.

“He cares deeply about it,” the Dodgers president said. “He’s living through every play, every out, every at-bat.”

However much longer Walter remains invested in the Dodgers — financially, at least — could come down to math.

Justice Department prosecutors, the Securities and Exchange Commission and a Delaware insurance regulator are investigating whether Walter funneled as much as $21 billion from the portfolios of two insurance companies he owns into private credit for loans to other companies he also controls while reporting just a fraction of the loans’ value. The Wall Street Journal and the Athletic reported Walter used billions of dollars of those insurance premiums to buy sports teams.

Such “related party transactions” are legal, within limits, but are required to be reported to guard against conflicts of interest and to protect clients.

In Walter’s case, the related-party loans f initially were reported at between $1 billion and $1.4 billion when the true total actually was between $16 billion and $21 billion. The reclassification meant the affiliated investments jumped from 2% of one insurer’s portfolio to about 40%, according to Fitch Ratings.

No formal charges have been filed, and TWG Global, the multinational holding company led by Walter, is cooperating in the investigation. Walter has declined to be interviewed or to respond to written questions about the investigation, but his representatives have strongly denied any improper behavior, describing reports of the probe as “substantial speculation and misinformation” advanced by “unnamed sources and self-serving interests.”

“It does not inspire confidence to know that this kind of wild understatement happened,” said Andrew Granato, a law professor at the University of Texas at Austin who specializes in corporate finance and insurance. “It also doesn’t inspire very much confidence in the system of insurance regulation we have, that there could be this big of a mess that was not caught for years.”

Walter hired veteran Goldman Sachs lawyer David Markowitz to be his chief legal officer and reportedly is exploring the sale of his 12.8% stake in the Chelsea soccer club to Clearlake Capital, a Santa Monica-based private-equity firm whose Puerto Rican-born co-founder, José E. Feliciano, recently bought the San Diego Padres.

A source close to Walter not authorized to discuss it publicly told The Times he has an interest in selling Chelsea if the terms are right but insisted there is no desire to sell the Sparks, the PWHL, his investment in professional squash or, more prominently, his stake in the Dodgers.

While Kasten and TWG Global officials insist the Dodgers aren’t for sale, uncertainty likely will linger at least until all investigations are completed.

Times staff writer Mirjam Swanson contributed to this report.

Sign up for more Dodgers news with Dodgers Dugout. Delivered at the start of each series.

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

Today’s Reflections

What an interesting pair of games. In one, the Cubs faced the NL Cy Young favorite, chased him by scoring five runs in four innings — and lost. And in the other, the Cubs’ offense was smothered by yet another up-and-coming Brewer SP, balanced by an elite Cub SP performance. Yet, the Cubs had to depend on two struggling RPs to achieve the win — and they did so two perfect innings for the win.

The second game allowed the Cubs to split the four-game series. It wasn’t the hopeful outcome, but the team avoided losing the series and kept pace with the Brewers in the NL Central.

Kevin Gausman came through with an Ace-level performance Thursday, having gone seven innings, allowed five hits and a walk with nine strikeouts. His lone blip was his lone run allowed — the dreaded *CSPSHR*, but that makes him a true Cubs SP!

For the final two innings, the Cubs had to turn to a pair of inconsistent relievers to close out the game. Ryan Zeferjahn has had a short, rocky stint as a member of the Cubs. Ryan Rolison was a stud for several weeks in the Cubs’ bullpen, but he has suddenly become inconsistent. But the short-term closing options available were extremely limited at best.

The duo took to the mound, with the vocal support of the Wrigley crowd, and pitched a perfect inning each to secure the win.

That made the only offense by Chicago stand. In the third inning, a Carson Kelly single and a Pete Crow-Armstrong two-run blast to centerfield for his 39th home run of the year led the way for the 2-1 win.

That was part of PCA’s two-game performance, as he went 2-for-7 with two walks and three runs. The only other performance over the two games that stands out is Alex Bregman’s 3-for-7 with a double, home run and four RBI.

Bregman was the impetus for the Cubs to chase Jacob Misiorowski from the mound, as his two-RBI home run and two-RBI double in the first two innings gave the Cubs a 5-3 lead. However, David Peterson was even worse than Misiorowski — Peterson went 3.2 innings, allowed six runs on seven hits and four walks with a *CSPSHR*. That included the key swing in the fourth inning, where Peterson’s three runs allowed turned a 5-3 Cubs lead to a 6-5 Brewer lead on the way to a Milwaukee win.

*Complimentary Starting Pitcher Solo Home Run*

*means autoplay on, (directions to remove for Firefox and Chrome). {$} means paywall. {$} means limited views. Italics are often used on this page as sarcasm font. The powers that be have enabled real sarcasm font in the comments.

Thursday Night’s Game Stories:

• Jordan Bastian (MLB.com): Gausman (9 K’s), bullpen shut down Brewers’ bats in Cubs’ win. “Tasked with avoiding a series loss against the rival Brewers, Kevin Gausman took the hill at Wrigley Field and delivered a vintage performance to lead the North Siders to the win column.”

• Vinnie Duber (Chicago Sun-Times): Pete Crow-Armstrong fuels Cubs’ win in front of fellow sports stars: ‘Chicago’s got a lot to look forward to’. “Crow-Armstrong did his thing Thursday, homering to drive in the Cubs’ only runs in a 2-1 victory that gave them a series split with the rival Brewers. But doing it in front of Bears quarterback Caleb Williams and Bulls stars Matas Buzelis and Caleb Wilson made it more special for him.”

• Andy Martinez (Chicago Tribune {$}): Caleb Williams has front-row seat for PCA’s 39th HR and Kevin Gausman’s strong start in Chicago Cubs’ 2-1 win. “The quartet was seated in the first row behind the home dugout down the third-base line and donned Cubs jerseys.”

Wednesday Night’s Game Stories:

• Meghan Montemurro (Chicago Tribune {$}): Chicago Cubs waste 5 runs off Milwaukee Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski in a 9-5 loss. “The Cubs forced Misiorowski to throw 92 pitches in four innings and tagged him for a season-high five earned runs on five hits and four walks.”

• Jon Greenberg (The Athletic {$}): Cubs’ roller-coaster season continues against Jacob Misiorowski and Brewers. “Cubs squander early lead off Misiorowski and Brewers, taking another hit to their fading wild-card hopes.”

• Vinnie Duber (Chicago Sun-Times): Even on night bats bash Jacob Misiorowski, eyes on bullpen as Jacob Webb takes liner off arm in Cubs loss. “The Cubs dealt the Brewers’ Cy Young favorite his worst start of the season, but all eyes were on what the team’s pitchers couldn’t do in a 9-5 loss that saw Webb knocked out late.”

Assorted Pitching Stories:

• Jordan Campbell (Cubbies Crib): Cubs signal they’re ready to correct Javier Assad mistake that never should have happened. “He’s nearly back.”
• Paul Niemiec (North Side Baseball): Gauging Cubs’ Backup Plans If Shota Imanaga Can’t Reverse Home Run Trend Before Playoffs. “Shota Imanaga leads baseball in home runs allowed, mirroring the problem that haunted him last year. Should the Cubs trust him with a postseason start?”
• Jordan Campbell (Cubbies Crib): Cubs’ 2027 option decisions look straightforward but Clay Holmes needs to be priority. “An early look at the first offseason decisions that will need to be made.”
• Vinnie Duber (Chicago Sun-Times): With Ben Brown out for season, Cubs focus on current arms rather than count on rehabbing possibilities. “Brown won’t pitch again this season after experiencing a setback in his rehab last week, eliminating perhaps the most likely of the team’s recovering pitchers to make a potential impact out of the bullpen this season.”
• Jordan Bastian (MLB.com): Brown to miss rest of season after rehab setback. “Ben Brown was trying to do everything in his power to make a comeback this season to help the Cubs’ pitching staff down the stretch and into October.”
• Jake Misener (Cubbies Crib): Craig Counsell speaks a hard truth when it comes to Daniel Palencia, struggling Cubs bullpen. “Another lackluster showing from the bullpen rattled fans on Tuesday.”
• Vinnie Duber (Chicago Sun-Times): Cubs need to lose bullpen blues to be best version of themselves come October: ‘These are guys we count on’. “It’s been a rough stretch for the Cubs’ relief corps, and while such stretches aren’t uncommon during a 162-game season, this one is coming at a bad time, as the lights are getting brighter and the playoffs approach.“
• Jordan Campbell (Cubbies Crib): Cubs pitching coach reveals how Edward Cabrera is preparing for sudden role change. “Will it work?”
• Zach Sweet (MLB.com): Cabrera takes first step toward returning as reliever with rehab outing. “Cabrera began his rehab assignment with Triple-A Iowa by allowing a solo homer to the first batter he faced before retiring the next three, including two by strikeout.”

Assorted Hitting Stories:

• Jacob Zanolla (Bleacher Nation): Tyrone Taylor Is Already Exceeding Expectations, Hitting His Way Into an Everyday Role. “Along with the pitching problems was a need for a bench bat that did well against left-handed pitching.”
• Conor Liguori (Sporting News): Cubs catcher in ‘strong position’ to land excellent free agent contract. “Kelly is an 11-year veteran who has been a good source of power for a catcher throughout his career.”
• Sam Caulder (North Side Baseball): The Cubs May Not Have a Place for Pedro Ramírez This October. “The Cubs have found a valuable young contributor in Pedro Ramírez. For 2026, however, finding him a spot in the postseason lineup may be easier said than done.”
• Meghan Montemurro (Chicago Tribune {$}): How the Chicago Cubs’ outfield approach is helping them lead MLB in preventing extra bases. “Preventing runners from advancing an extra base on balls hit to the outfield impacts game outcomes, and the Chicago Cubs’ outfielders have been the best at limiting those attempts.”
• Vinnie Duber (Chicago Sun-Times): Craig Counsell’s reunion with ex-Brewer Tyrone Taylor fruitful for Cubs: ‘I knew he’d fit in really well’. “Counsell requested a right-handed hitting outfielder he could bring off the bench at the trade deadline and suggested Taylor, who he managed in Milwaukee. It’s turned out to be a heck of a reunion, with Taylor bringing a 1.027 OPS as a Cub into Wednesday.”
• Paul Sullivan (Chicago Tribune {$}): Column: A must-wand game for the White Sox, Cubs SS Dansby Swanson is going stir crazy and other takeaways. “Stir crazy at Wrigley.”

Assorted Stories:

• Evan Altman (Cubs Insider): Quantifying Hope: Cubs Survive Brewers Series, Maintain 99% Playoff Odds. “It wasn’t always pretty, but the Cubs managed to split with the Brewers at Wrigley to avoid losing ground in the division.”
• Lamond Pope (Chicago Tribune {$}): Chicago baseball report: BJ Murray Jr.’s ‘long journey’ to Cubs — and a ‘cool’ honor for Sox’s Tristan Peters. “As the Sept. 1 expanded rosters loomed, infielder BJ Murray Jr. had no idea the Cubs viewed him as their choice for the extra position player.”
• Zoe Grossman (Chicago Cubs On SI): Cubs Injuries: Bad News on Ben Brown, Better News on Jacob Webb, Dansby Swanson. “The Cubs had a mixed bag of injury updates ahead of Thursday’s series finale against the Brewers.”
• Alexander Rosquez (LastWordInSports): Cubs Wild Card Position Keeps NL Central Deficit in Perspective. “The defeat was costly in the NL Central race, but the Cubs remained just one game behind the top Wild Card position entering the next day of the series.”
• Vinnie Duber (Chicago Sun-Times): Bears’ Caleb Williams, Bulls players lead PCA cheering section. “Williams wore a pinstriped Pete Crow-Armstrong jersey at Wrigley Field on Thursday night.”
• Paul Sullivan (Chicago Tribune {$}): Column: It’s hard to call Milwaukee Brewers a surprise when they keep finishing ahead of Chicago Cubs. “It’s difficult to explain exactly why the Brewers are so much better than the Cubs, especially when you look at their lineup and see only one player with a bWAR above 3.2.”
• Matthew Trueblood (North Side Baseball): The Cubs’ Base Coaches Are Two of the Team’s Most Lethal Weapons. “They’re in your glove, and even if they’re not in your glove, they’re in your head. They’re force multipliers for the league’s best outfield defense and its best baserunning unit. Quintin Berry and Jose Javier might be the Cubs’ two best acquisitions in years.”

Food For Thought:

Blues singer, guitarist, and bandleader Theodis Ealey has earned his nickname as “the Bluesman Lover.” Ealey first made his name working with some of the best names in the blues, but he’s also won an avid following for his ribald R&B tunes about love and lovemaking. Ealey was born in Natchez, Mississippi in 1947. One of 11 children, Ealey learned to play guitar when he was four years old, after his older brother Y.Z. Ealey gave him his first lessons. About ten years later, the brothers were playing together in a band called Y.Z. Ealey & the Merrymakers, with the younger Ealey on bass and a third brother, Melwin Ealey, also in the lineup. About a year later, Ealey traded in the bass for a guitar and joined Eugene Butler & the Rocking Royals, another group that played in the Natchez region.

He became a journeyman guitarist, and as his reputation grew, Ealey landed gigs backing up Little Milton, Richard “Dimples” Fields, Charles Brown, and Johnny Clyde Copeland. Now known as a first-class sideman, Ealey began stepping out as a frontman. It wasn’t long before Ichiban Records took notice of Ealey’s musical skills and signed him to a deal

Please be reminded that Cub Tracks and Bleed Cubbie Blue do not necessarily endorse the content of articles, podcasts, or videos that are linked to in this series.

The lights are always a little brighter when the Astros play nationally on Fox. Today we’re treated to an exclusive conversation at The Crawfish Boxes with Fox 26 Houston’s long time sports personality, Nate Griffin.   

Q: Nate, does something just feel “right” about the Astros playing a meaningful game in September on Fox?

A: Absolutely. You know, if the Astros are not in the postseason, it seems a little strange. The Astros had a magical run from 2017 to 2024. It’s easy to assume that the ship will keep sailing but thanks to injuries, free agency, a weakened farm system, etc., the “Astros Run” came to a bitter end in 2025. Saturday should be fun.    

Q: Do you think we total it all up in a few weeks that 83 wins might be enough to win this division?    

A: The A.L. West is the weakest division in baseball. Never thought we’d see such a struggle within the entire division. The Astros can’t seem to find the consistency to pull away. Their longest win streak this season is 6 games. Longest win streak for the Rangers is 4 games. Longest win streak for the Mariners is 8 games. The Astros longest win streak in 2017 was 11 games. But that seemed to give them the confidence they needed to finish strong at the end and they also had better pitching.

Q: If we’re sitting here a month from now and the Astros are playing in October, should Joe Espada return as manager?

A: The Astros could get on a hot streak in October, but I honestly don’t think it’ll be enough to bring Espada back. Seems to be a foregone conclusion that he is only with the team until the end of the season. It is believed that management is going to move forward without him.

Q: What’s been the biggest disappointment for you?    For me, it’s been Imai.     

A: There have been several disappointments in 2026. The Astros still seem to have challenges keeping their key players healthy. Hunter Brown wasn’t completely healthy to start the season. Christian Javier has not been himself since 2024. Carlos Correa wasn’t able to stay healthy this season. Tough to win. And the Astros expected more from Imai; didn’t get it. Also, not sure how the Daulton Varsho trade had helped the Astros. He’s currently hitting .172.

On Friday, the San Francisco Giants announced their tentative 2027 Spring Training schedule. “Tentative” is not their word choice. They just opted for a straight up Spring Training schedule.

“Tentative” is my word choice, because friends … there probably ain’t gonna be a Spring Training. Or at least, it probably won’t be in spring.

A lockout is looming, and I’ll (happily) eat my shoe if it’s resolved in time for there to be a standard, as scheduled Spring Training. The caveat to there is that you all have to pay me to watch me eat said shoe, or else it ain’t happening. $10 a ticket, and at least 25 of you have to show up. Also, the shoe might be made out of cake. Who’s to say.

Anyway, if you’re in the business of planning trips that you’ll probably have to cancel in advance, the schedule is here.

Only 167 days until a hopefully less-awful Giants season gets underway. Just book refundable hotels, folks. And thank me later.

Ima Gun-Di. Garielvin Silverio. Jace Mataczynski. Salacious B. Crumb. Tobias Beckett. Jedixson Paez. Half of these are characters from the Star Wars universe; the other half are Boston Red Sox prospects. That doesn’t have much to do with the rest of this piece, but recent Red Sox call-up Jedixson Paez’s name starts with “Jedi” and sounds really cool, so my mind went to Star Wars. (Note: it’s pronounced Head-Ick-Son).

Paez hails from Venezuela, whose rate of pumping out baseball players rivals Tatooine’s rate of pumping out jedis. Was Obi-Wan Kenobi from Tatooine, or did he happen to live there when Luke was a kid? For a nerd who has seen the Star Wars movies too many times, I weirdly don’t know much of the lore beyond what’s depicted on screen. The Pod on Lansdowne crew is going to hate this.

Paez, much like Luke Skywalker, left his home planet of Boston in the 2025 Rule-5 Draft and was taken to Alderaan Chicago to learn the ways of the Force White Sox. This is where the metaphor ends, because Luke doesn’t go back to his home planet for another two movies, and Paez only made three appearances with the White Sox before being designated for assignment and returning to the Red Sox organization.

Over those three outings, Paez failed to record a strikeout, walked three of the 16 batters he faced, and surrendered two home runs to combine for an 18 ERA. On Tuesday, with the rotation being held together by duct tape and Payton Tolle, the Red Sox were in need of a spot start and called upon Paez.

I’ll cut to the chase — the start went poorly. Paez surrendered eight runs over 3.2 innings. He gave up 10 hits, walking two and striking out three. He was booed on multiple occasions throughout the evening. Trevor Story tossed his first career strikeout ball into the stands at the end of an inning. It was an all-around a rough team debut for the rookie.

I want to look at the second inning. Paez was tagged for five earned runs in the frame, but I don’t think he was as bad as the line looks. Josh Naylor started the inning with a double to deep right-center field on a sinker that was on the edge. It was a good swing by Naylor on a pitch that was well-located, but probably doesn’t need to be thrown much against lefties. After that, Cole Young hit a jamshot single on a cutter in a good location. Paez walked the next batter as he lost the zone a bit, and then gave up a sacrifice fly. The next batter hit a chopper over first base that went for an infield single. After that, he left a pitch over the middle of the plate to Randy Arozarena, who hit it one million feet for a three-run home run.

He threw two meatballs that went for home runs in the evening, the second of which capped off the five-run inning. While the inning was far from a masterpiece, to me, it was more a case of a few bad pitches and some bad batted-ball luck that snowballed on a young pitcher. He was put in a tough spot against a good lineup and wasn’t up for the challenge.

That doesn’t mean it’s all bad, though. I saw a few things during the start that can be building blocks. First, his fastball shape. The height-adjusted vertical approach angle came in at 1.1 degrees, a solid mark that should help miss bats and mask poor locations. He also averaged 92 miles per hour with 6.7 feet of extension. The velocity mark is hardly eye-catching, but he throws with such relaxed mechanics and has room to add muscle. The Red Sox have had success in helping pitchers add velocity, and Paez is a prime candidate for offseason improvement.

He also flashed a curveball that doesn’t jump off the page, but his ability to flip it in the zone for free strikes was impressive. He generally kept it down, though a few popped out of his hand and landed above the zone. Through the minors, Paez has been a solid strike-thrower with his fastballs. On a night when his fastballs weren’t there, the curveball gave him a strike-getter and is another arrow in his quiver that he can command well and help him jump in front of hitters.

Speaking of strike-getting weapons, Paez threw a cutter for 90% strikes as well. Given the rest of his arsenal, the cutter is a big pitch to use against right-handed hitters. On Tuesday, he went 6/6 with it, though the locations were poor. At 85 mph with positive horizontal movement, it should work with the right locations.

The real attraction, however, is the changeup. It’s not the typical arm-side running changeup that most pitchers feature, but more of a straight-change. Anecdotally, I find that straight changes are typically more platoon-neutral and can survive better in the zone. Through a short major-league career, the pitch has shown bat-missing ability, registering a 17% swinging strike rate. Even as he struggled on Tuesday, he was able to induce four whiffs with the pitch.

Paez’s stuff isn’t overwhelming, but he has a deep arsenal of pitches that shouldn’t be destroyed when they’re commanded. “Have better command” is easier said than done, but he’s shown elite command in the minor leagues. He has minuscule walk rates in each of his minor league stops. In his brief time in Worcester, each of his pitches has a strike rate over 60%. They’re also generally commanded where they’re supposed to be (featuring my MS Paint handwriting because I was too lazy to pull up Photoshop).

The changeups and sinkers are on the arm-side. The cutter is on the glove side. The four-seam fastballs are generally up in the zone as well. The curveball probably caught too much of the plate, though that might be primarily early in counts to steal strikes. Given his minor league command, I’d expect him to rein it back in once his feet are under him.

Paez was sent back down to Worcester to work on his craft, and potentially stay ready for another spot start if the rotation needs reshuffling. The big league club has an off day each of the final three weeks of the season, so they may be able to shift things around without requiring an extra arm. If Paez is called upon once again, there’s reason to believe he can throw a few solid innings. If we don’t see him again this year, that’s okay too. He’s 22 years old, big, and has a deep arsenal. There’s plenty of time for the Padawan to become a full-fledged Jedi.

Triple-A: Syracuse Mets (70 – 64)

ROCHESTER 5, SYRACUSE 0 (BOX)

In game one of the double-header, the Mets mustered only three hits against the Red Wings. Jack Wenninger went four, striking our five, allowing two runs on four hits and three walks. Dan Hammer didn’t help, allowing three runs in one and a third innings pitched.

• CF D’Andre Smith: 0-3, 2 K
• 2B Émilien Pitre: 1-3, K, SB, E
• SS Ronny Mauricio: 0-3, 3 K
• RF MJ Melendez: 1-2, 2B, BB
• DH Eric Wagaman: 0-3
• 3B Vidal Bruján: 0-3, K
• LF Ryan Clifford: 0-2, K
• 1B Nick Lorusso: 0-2
• C Hayden Senger: 1-2, K
• P Jack Wenninger: 4.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
• P Dan Hammer: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
• P Saul Garcia: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Triple-A: Syracuse Mets (71 – 64)

SYRACUSE 7, ROCHESTER 4 (BOX)

Zach Franklin (acquired for Huascar Brazobán) continued his success in Triple-A, tossing two scoreless innings, allowing two hits with one strikeout. On the alternate spelling tip, Zack Short hit an RBI double. Vidal Bruján drove in two runs on a double and Hayden Senger drilled a three-run, pinch hit home run.

• LF-RF D’Andre Smith: 1-4, K
• 3B Vidal Bruján: 1-4, 2B, 2 RBI, K
• 2B Ronny Mauricio: 1-3, BB, 2 K
• RF MJ Melendez: 0-1
• LF Ryan Clifford: 0-3
• 1B Eric Wagaman: 0-4, R
• DH Nick Lorusso: 1-4, R, 2B, 2 K
• CF Jose Ramos: 1-3, 3 R, 2 K
• C Kevin Parada: 0-2, RBI, K
• PH Émilien Pitre: 0-1, K
• C Hayden Senger: 1-1, R, HR, 3 RBI
• SS Zack Short: 1-2, R, 2B, RBI, BB
• P Jack Weisenburger: 2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 1 K
• P Zach Franklin: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• P Matt Turner: 1.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
• P Ben Simon: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
• P Dylan Ross: 1.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• P Brian Metoyer: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Double-A: Binghamton Rumble Ponies (59 – 71)

BINGHAMTON 2, NEW HAMPSHIRE 0 (BOX)

Mitch Voit drove in both Bingo runs on a double, which accounted for just all the offense for the Rumble Ponies, aside from a single by Eddinson Paulino. The Binghamton pitching staff allowed just four baserunners all night, stirking out ten and walking none.

• SS Mitch Voit: 1-4, 2B, 2 RBI, K
• 3B Jefferson Rojas: 0-2, 2 BB, K, SB
• DH Jacob Reimer: 0-4, 2 K
• C Chris Suero: 0-4, 2 K
• CF John Bay: 0-3, K
• LF Corey Collins: 0-3, 2 K
• RF JT Benson: 0-0, R, 2 BB, 2 SB
• 1B Jamari Baylor: 0-2, R, BB, K
• 2B Eddinson Paulino: 1-2, K
• P Luke Gabrysh: 5.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K
• P Bryce Jenkins: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
• P Carlos Guzman: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• P Garrett Stratton: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

High-A: Brooklyn Cyclones (57 – 72)

FREDERICK 9, BROOKLYN 5 (BOX)

John Spikerman had himself a night in the Brooklyn loss: two walks, three stolen bases, three runs scored, a home run, and two RBI. Sadly, Joe Scarborough gave up six runs in just an inning and a third of work, leading to the loss.

• SS Sammy Stafura: 1-1, BB
• PH-SS Antonio Jimenez: 1-3, 2 K
• CF Aidan Smith: 0-5, 2 K
• RF Aiden Robbins: 0-3, BB, 2 K
• 3B Cole Mathis: 0-4, 2 K
• 2B Yonatan Henriquez: 1-4, R, 3B
• 1B Ronald Hernandez: 0-4, 2 K
• LF John Spikerman: 2-2, 3 R, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 3 SB
• DH Daiverson Gutierrez: 0-3, BB, 2 K
• C Alejandro Urias: 1-4, R, HR, 2 RBI
• P Jose Chirinos: 4.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K
• P Juan Arnaud: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• P Hunter Hodges: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
• P Joe Scarborough: 1.1 IP, 4 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 0 K

Single-A: St. Lucie Mets (57 – 72)

ST. LUCIE 10, JUPITER 6 (BOX)

Yovanny Rodriguez hit two solo home runs, and Kuhio Aloy and Branny De Oleo added home runs of their own en route to the St. Lucie dub. The St. Lucie staff struck out 17 and walked six.

• SS Boston Baro: 2-5, 2 R, RBI, K
• RF Branny De Oleo: 1-3, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI, BB, K
• C Yovanny Rodriguez: 2-3, 3 R, 2 HR, 2 RBI, BB, K, 2 E
• LF Kuhio Aloy: 1-3, R, HR, 4 RBI, BB, K, SB
• DH Jack Toomey: 0-4, K
• 1B Julio Zayas: 0-4, 2 K
• 3B Jeremy Rodriguez: 0-2, 2 R, 2 BB
• CF Vladi Gomez: 0-3, BB, SB
• 2B Yunior Amparo: 1-3, RBI, BB, K
• P Peyton Prescott: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• P Shane Sdao: 1.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
• P Aidan Keenan: 2.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
• P AJ Krodel: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• P Nate Isler: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• P Tyler McLoughlin: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
• P Zack Mack: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

STAR OF THE NIGHT

John Spikerman

GOAT OF THE NIGHT

Joe Scarborough

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Our Saturday MLB moneyline predictions feature a strong mix of large underdogs and short favorites in solid individual and team matchups across the 15-game slate.

Read on for my MLB moneyline predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, Sept. 5.

MLB moneyline picks for September 5

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Matchup	Pick
SF vs NYM	38%
CHC vs MIA	55%
ATL vs PHI	59%
DET vs CLE	58%
LAA vs PIT	35%
MIL vs CIN	38%
BOS vs BAL	58%
TB vs TEX	48%
TOR vs KC	48%
MIN vs CWS	47%
AZ vs HOU	52%
NYY vs SD	53%
STL vs COL	53%
WSH vs LAD	28%
ATH vs SEA	35%

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of September 5.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for September 5

Unless otherwise noted, all stats are from FanGraphs and are from the last 14 days. 

Giants vs Mets: San Francisco Giants

Giants win probability: 38%

New York is priced too high, despite scuffling with a 91 wRC+ over the last two weeks. San Francisco’s offense sits comfortably above league average (109 wRC+), giving Anthony Molina solid run support. At this price, you are getting generous plus-money against a slumping Mets lineup.

Cubs vs Marlins: Chicago Cubs

Cubs win probability: 55%

Chicago is the hottest offense in baseball over the last 14 days, pacing MLB with a 151 wRC+ and .917 OPS. Ryan Gusto faces a relentless lineup, and while Chicago’s bullpen can be volatile, Miami’s 93 wRC+ and 4.38 relief SIERA lack the firepower to capitalize on late-inning mistakes.

Braves vs Phillies: Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies win probability: 59%

Zack Wheeler gives Philadelphia a clear starting pitching edge over Martín Pérez. Atlanta's bullpen ERA (2.18) is an illusion propped up by an unsustainable 82.7% strand rate against an underwhelming 4.27 SIERA. Philadelphia’s bullpen ranks second in baseball (3.19 SIERA), providing the late-inning stability needed to cash at the window.

Tigers vs Guardians: Cleveland Guardians

Guardians win probability: 58%

Detroit’s offense is completely dead, ranking dead last in baseball with an abysmal 55 wRC+ and .187 batting average. Even with Framber Valdez starting, the Tigers’ 4.66 relief SIERA cannot hold leads. Cleveland brings a league-best bullpen (3.03 SIERA) and a 105 wRC+ offense at a very reasonable and playable price.

Angels vs Pirates: Los Angeles Angels

Angels win probability: 35%

Pittsburgh is priced like a heavy favorite despite an anemic offense that has produced a 74 wRC+ and a .094 ISO. Braxton Ashcraft does not warrant laying that kind of price against anyone. Yusei Kikuchi gives the Angels enough competent starter innings to make this massive underdog worth taking.

Brewers vs Reds: Cincinnati Reds

Reds win probability: 38%

Milwaukee is laying steep chalk at -164 that violates value rules. Cincinnati’s lineup ranks seventh in baseball over the last two weeks (111 wRC+, .194 ISO), bringing genuine power against Dustin May. Backing Andrew Abbott at big-dog money offers tremendous leverage against a Milwaukee bullpen sporting a 4.49 xFIP.

Red Sox vs Orioles: Boston Red Sox

Red Sox win probability: 58%

Sonny Gray gives Boston the early advantage against Chris Bassitt. Boston's offense has remained steady with a 109 wRC+ and minimal swing-and-miss (18.8% K%), whereas Baltimore’s lineup sits near the bottom third with a 94 wRC+. Gray should work deep enough to hand Boston a lead at a fair price.

Rays vs Rangers: Texas Rangers

Rangers win probability: 48%

Texas is swinging the bats at an elite level, ranking second in MLB with a 124 wRC+ over the last fortnight. Jacob deGrom at home as a plus-money underdog against a flat Tampa Bay offense (84 wRC+) is the clearest form-versus-price discrepancy on the entire Saturday slate.

Blue Jays vs Royals: Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays win probability: 48%

This will likely become a pitcher's duel between Max Scherzer and Seth Lugo, but late-inning profiles separate them. Kansas City’s bullpen is generating almost no whiffs (16.4% K%, 4.49 SIERA). Toronto’s relievers are striking out 27.1% of batters with a 3.56 SIERA, giving the Blue Jays the clear advantage at plus-money.

Twins vs White Sox: Minnesota Twins

Twins win probability: 47%

Minnesota's lineup is driving the ball with authority, posting a 111 wRC+ and .191 ISO with an exceptionally low 17.1% strikeout rate over the last two weeks. Anthony Kay is prone to hard contact, giving Taj Bradley and the Twins solid value as live road underdogs, and the Twinkies are ripe for the picking.

Diamondbacks vs Astros: Houston Astros

Astros win probability: 52%

 At near pick'em odds, Houston has the decisive bullpen advantage. Houston relievers have dominated with a 3.02 FIP and 3.55 SIERA over the last two weeks. Arizona’s offense is sputtering down at an 84 wRC+, making Ethan Pecko and the Astros' superior bullpen the correct side tonight.

Yankees vs Padres: New York Yankees

Yankees win probability: 53%

Carlos Rodón and Robbie Ray should duel, but New York holds the offensive edge. The Yankees boast a 112 wRC+ over the last 14 days, compared to San Diego’s sluggish 91 wRC+. With pricing set essentially at pick'em, back the lineup producing extra-base hits at a higher rate.

Cardinals vs Rockies: St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals win probability: 53%

Colorado’s bullpen is the worst in the show over the last two weeks, posting an awful 6.1% K-BB% and 4.79 SIERA. While Coors Field is always a wild card, Matthew Liberatore faces a Colorado offense with an 86 wRC+. Laying the modest juice against Colorado's leaky bullpen is a solid play.

Nationals vs Dodgers: Washington Nationals

Nationals win probability: 28%

The Dodgers are entirely unplayable at this big a number, especially with an offense slugging just .324 (93 wRC+) over the last two weeks. Cade Cavalli has live stuff, and while Tyler Glasnow is dominant, paying a 72% implied price tag on a slumping Dodgers lineup provides zero mathematical cushion. 

Athletics vs Mariners: Athletics

Athletics win probability: 35%

Seattle's price is far too high. Seattle's bullpen has been a disaster over the last two weeks with a 6.94 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. Meanwhile, the A’s offense is quietly raking with a 113 wRC+ and a .276 average. Jeffrey Springs gives Oakland a live upset chance and a massive payday.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Detroit Tigers were swept in their Friday doubleheader against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field, coughing up leads in both games, resulting in walk-off losses. These defeats just seem to get more and more brutal as the season mercifully wanes.

Getting the start for the Motor City Kitties on Saturday evening is left-hander Framber Valdez, who is coming off two straight six-inning quality starts to end August. However, the 32-year-old’s numbers over his last 12 innings of work are hardly impressive, posting a 4.50 ERA and 5.18 FIP on 14 hits (two home runs) and three walks while striking out just five over that span, earning a pair of losses along the way.

Valdez has faced Cleveland twice this season, with both resulting in losses thanks to a 6.75 ERA and 6.25 FIP over 10 2/3 innings of work, coughing up 11 hits (one home run) and nine walks while striking out six and hitting a batter.

For the Guardians, American League Rookie of the Year candidate left-hander Parker Messick will take the mound amidst a stellar debut campaign. The 25-year-old was particularly effective in August, putting up an impressive 2.02 ERA along with a tidy 2.68 FIP stretching over six games and 35 2/3 frames, giving up 27 hits (three home runs) and seven walks while striking out 39 batters, along with a hit-by-pitch and wild pitch.

However, the Tigers have challenged Messick a wee bit this summer in the two times they have faced each other, working him for a reasonable 3.38 ERA but a bloated 5.17 ERA on seven hits (two home runs) and five walks against 12 strikeouts and a HBP over 10 2/3 frames of work. He took a no-decision in a win at Detroit back in May while earning a loss in August, also at Comerica Park.

Here is a look at how the two match up for Game 3 of the four-game series on Saturday.

Detroit Tigers (64-77) vs. Cleveland Guardians (72-70)

Time (ET): 6:10 p.m.
Place: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio
SB Nation Site:Covering the Corner
Media: Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network

Game 142: LHP Framber Valdez (8-10, 4.36 ERA) vs. LHP Parker Messick (11-8, 2.46 ERA)

VALDEZ

MESSICK

Good morning Birdland,

You would have thought that Colton Cowser’s catch in Colorado a few days ago would have been the exact kind of jet fuel the Orioles needed to really go on a run and take the AL’s final wild card for themselves. Instead, they have now lost four in a row since that moment and have fallen to three games out of the playoff picture. They have just 20 games left to make up the ground, and the odds that they manage to do it aren’t great.

Losses like last night’s 1-0 defeat at the hands of the Red Sox are so demoralizing. Shane Baz was about as good as you could have asked. He gave up one run, a solo homer in the very first inning. And the bullpen was great behind him. But the Orioles offense did absolutely nothing. That sort of summary is all too familiar at this point.

They collected six hits, all singles, and one walk. They managed to create just three at-bats with a runner in scoring position. In those situations, they were hitless. Blaze Alexander alone was responsible for three of the team’s hits. The rest of the lineup was a combined 3-for-27 with a walk and four strikeouts. Ugh.

Alexander did create a bit of a spark in the eighth inning, when he started jawing with Trevor Story after attempting to break up a double play. The argument emptied the bullpens and the benches. While Alexander was being pulled from the interaction he started throwing his hands up in the air to encourage the home crowd to start cheering. It did create a buzz, but the Orioles did nothing with it.

That is the sort of fire that this Orioles team could use more of. And Alexander should have the latitude to make it happen. He has been the team’s best contact hitter pretty much all season long, and has picked right back up where he left when he hit the IL back in July. If the Orioles are going to make the postseason this year, they need to get hot right now. Maybe Alexander’s energy helps them do that.

This four-game set will continue on Saturday night in Baltimore. Chris Bassitt (6-4, 4.97) has the first pitch at 7:05. He will be opposed by Sonny Gray (16-4, 2.82 ERA).

Links

Blaze’s fire empties benches, but can’t spark slumping Orioles | Orioles.com
I will be honest that I was not a huge fan of the move for Alexander, but it has been a nice bit of business. If he finishes the season as this type of hitter (127 OPS+), then I think the Orioles need to find an everyday role for him somewhere on the diamond in 2027. If he can settle into a position, we might see his defensive metrics bounce back as well.

Sanders finds much in common with father, leftovers on Baz | Roch Kubatko
The O’s might have found themselves something with Cam Sanders. As explained here, he has the background of his dad being a big leaguer, which may have helped him navigate some early-career struggles. The talent is obvious. He has certainly pitched well enough to be considered for the 2027 Orioles bullpen. Whether he can duplicate what he has done to this point with the Birds moving forward is something else.

Diamondbacks To Activate Corbin Burnes On Tuesday | MLB Trade Rumors
Not really Orioles related anymore, but it can be fun to keep tabs on old friends. Burnes hasn’t pitched in a big league game since last June. On top of the Tommy John he also suffered a teres major strain, which elongated his rehab. The Diamondbacks only gave him one minor league start, which last two innings at the end of August. He will essentially continue his rehab at the major league level, tossing around 60 pitches for Arizona on Tuesday. The team is half of a game out of the NL’s final wild card spot.

Orioles birthdays

Is it your birthday? Happy birthday!

• Calvin Maduro turns 52 today. He pitched in parts of three seasons with the Orioles from 2000 through 2002.
• Jimmy Haynes is 54 years old. His career began in Baltimore, where he appeared in two seasons with the Orioles from 1995-96. The following season he was traded to the Athletics for outfielder Gerónimo Berroa.
• The late Tom Patton (b. 1939, d. 2025) was born on this day. He pitched in one MLB game, which came with the Orioles in 1957.

This day in O’s history

1995 – Cal Ripken Jr. ties Lou Gehrig by appearing in his 2,130th consecutive game. The Orioles beat the Angels 8-0 as Scott Erickson tosses a complete game and Ripken has three hits.

2010 – The Orioles beat the Rays 8-7 despite allowing four home runs. Corey Patterson leads the O’s lineup with a homer of his own and three rBI.

The streak is now over for Bryce Harper. His on base streak ended last night after 35 games, a testament to how well he has done in the past month plus. Coincidence that he didn’t get on base and the Phillies lost the game? I think not.

On to the links.

Phillies news:

• The lawsuit brought against his parents by Alec Bohm has been settled out of court ($). An end to a sad series of events.
• To get the trade for Luis Arraez done, the club needed buy in from Bryce Harper to switch positions. So far, so good I’d say.

MLB news:

• Now that the sale of the Angels is starting to see a finish line, the stories of Arte Moreno’s ownership are going to start coming to the fore.
• Even though I would contend it’s still too early to write something like this, here are trade deadline winners and losers, one month later.
• Stop me if you’ve heard this before: an owner gets a new stadium deal, then says it will lead to more money being spent on players. I’ll believe it when I see it.