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The Knicks and Raptors haven’t been good at the same time very often. In the late ’90s, when the Knicks made regular appearances deep into the playoffs, the Raptors were a young expansion team getting their feet wet, focused on building a foundation and a fan base. When they started to take off and Vince Carter elevated them into one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference, the Knicks had begun what would become a decade-long spiral of suffering, losing, and ineptitude. In the 2010s, the Raptors won the ninth-most games in the NBA and captured an NBA championship. The Knicks, meanwhile, were busy failing to put together competent teams around Carmelo Anthony, only to fail to capitalize on Kristaps Porzingis’ breakout career.

The trend of at least one of the two franchises struggling will change this upcoming season, though. LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo were the only superstars expected to swap teams this offseason, but Kawhi Leonard has joined them in what has turned into a very fun offseason filled with surprising twists. With Leonard heading to Toronto, both teams will be good. Very good. But can the Raptors challenge the Knicks? And if so, are they the biggest threat in the conference?

The answer to the first question is yes. A defensive frontcourt consisting of Leonard, Scottie Barnes, and Collin Murray-Boyles has a very strong case to be the best in the league. That’s a very athletic and strong defensive trio with plenty of versatility, size, and length. No offense will enjoy playing against them. Even a Knicks team that solved the Victor Wembanyama problem that so many had struggled to answer will undoubtedly struggle at times.

This past season, while the Knicks dominated the season series against the Raptors, the latter held up defensively for much of each game. Adding one of the best defenders in the league to what was already a strong group while subtracting its weakest defender in Brandon Ingram makes them an immediate threat. Assuming they stay relatively healthy, it’s not unreasonable to expect them to be a top-three defense in the league alongside the Thunder and Spurs.

This trade also gives them a significant offensive upgrade. Ingram is no slouch as a scorer, but his shot profile isn’t an ideal one in today’s NBA. He is a 2000s-esque player who does a lot of his damage in the midrange and doesn’t get to the free-throw line much. While Leonard is just as deadly from the midrange, he gets to the line more frequently and is a much better, more willing three-point shooter. One of the areas where the Raptors struggled most last season was their lack of three-point shooting, particularly off the dribble.

On many nights, the Raptors simply lost the mathematical battle because opposing teams took and made significantly more outside shots. In fact, Leonard alone averaged 4.0 pull-up three-point attempts per game last season, while the Raptors averaged 4.9 per game as a team.

I’d also say that the answer to the second question is yes. Part of that is because the Raptors, for all the reasons mentioned above, are a much better team. But part of it is also due to how the offseason has unfolded for the other Eastern Conference teams. The Celtics may be losing Jaylen Brown, and Derrick White will be one year older and is coming off a poor shooting season. As they are currently constructed, I don’t think they have the defensive capability to slow down the Knicks.

The Boston Celtics have officially begun their work in free agency. 

According to ESPN’s Shams Charania, Boston has agreed to deals with veteran guard Mike Conley and center Mitchell Robinson. 

Conley is reportedly signing on a veteran minimum contract, while Robinson, fresh off an NBA championship with the New York Knicks, has landed a lucrative deal worth just over $15 million annually. The contract is reportedly for three years and includes a player option for the final season. While I don’t think it’s particularly likely, one detail worth monitoring is whether Robinson’s contract includes games-played incentives. We’ve seen this structure used before, most recently when the Portland Trail Blazers included similar incentives in old friend Robert Williams III’s extension to account for his injury history. 

One important aspect of the Robinson signing though is its financial impact on the Celtics. 

Boston used its non-taxpayer mid-level exception to sign Robinson, a move that automatically triggers a hard cap at the NBA’s first apron, set at approximately $209 million. When a team is hard capped, they are prohibited from exceeding that salary threshold for the remainder of the league year. 

As things stand right now with the additions of Conley and Robinson, Boston has all 15 standard contract roster spots filled and are $5.1 million under the first apron but now $3.5 million over the luxury tax.  

With Mitchell Robinson and Mike Conley in the fold, the Celtics are at 15 players on standard contracts (including Chris Cenac). I've got Boston at $3.5M over the tax and $5.1M under their first-apron hard cap (triggered by signing Robinson with the NTMLE).

That's enough…

— Keith Smith (@KeithSmithNBA) July 1, 2026

I am very curious if this means other moves, whether big or small, will come down the pipe eventually. The Celtics have traditionally preferred to carry an open roster spot into the regular season, giving themselves flexibility as the year unfolds. On top of that, we saw just how committed the front office was to managing its tax bill last season, making a flurry of deadline deals to duck below the luxury tax threshold. With Boston now operating under the first-apron hard cap, that same emphasis on financial flexibility could once again shape the team’s next moves. 

One name that consistently surfaces in salary-clearing discussions is Sam Hauser, who is set to earn $10.8 million this season. The more likely move, in my view, is parting ways with Dalano Banton to free up a roster spot. The Celtics exercised Banton’s team option before the deadline, but his salary remains non-guaranteed. That gives Boston the flexibility to waive him with minimal financial consequences if the front office decides it needs another opening on the 15-man roster. 

What cost saving moves do you think the Celtics should/will make if any?  

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Prediction market customers are taking a strong interest in LeBron James' basketball future. The 41-year-old is mulling his next team options now that NBA teams are allowed to negotiate contracts with free agents.

Roughly $27 million in contracts have been traded at leading operators Kalshi and Polymarket on the superstar's next destination.

Key Takeaways

• Trading volume has spiked since James announced his departure from the Los Angeles Lakers.
  
  
• Golden State is the leading destination at Kalshi and Polymarket.
  
  
• Polymarket customers are also showing strong support for Miami.

ESPN’s David Purdum shared Tuesday evening that more than $12.8 million in prediction market contracts related to James’ next team had been traded at Kalshi in the preceding two days. That pushed the overall total over $17 million.

The trading volume surpassed $23 million as of Wednesday morning.

The LeBron James next team odds show that the Golden State Warriors are the favorite (38% at Kalshi, 34% at Polymarket). Traders at both platforms also believe the Cleveland Cavaliers are the next most-likely team (34% at Kalshi, 33% at Polymarket), and there’s a sizable discrepancy after them.

The Warriors climbed as high as 58% on Polymarket and 50% on Kalshi within the last week after reports suggested that Golden State was hoping to pair James with Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. 

If there is a team that is going to challenge the Warriors and Cavaliers, it appears to be the Miami Heat (21% at Polymarket, 18% at Kalshi). James won two championships with the franchise in 2012 and 2013 and would have the chance to play with Bam Adebayo and the recently acquired Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The Heat had less than a 1% chance on Polymarket of landing James as recently as Monday. Kalshi never dropped them that low, but did have them at just 5% a week ago.

Where is the money going?

Kalshi does not show trading volume for individual outcomes on its platform, but Polymarket does.

Polymarket customers have bought a hair under $4.7 million in trades. The Los Angeles Lakers – who already announced James’ departure – have the highest trading volume at $776,706 (16.6% of the total volume).

The Heat lead the top three contenders with $407,443, which is 8.7% of the total volume. The Warriors are next with $359,374 (7.7%) in trades, followed by the Cavaliers’ $184,356 (3.9%).

The San Antonio Spurs are fourth in probability to sign James at Kalshi and Polymarket, although they have not been linked to him by prominent reporters. The Minnesota Timberwolves (3% at Kalshi, 2% at Polymarket) and Washington Wizards (3% at Kalshi, 1% at Polymarket) have.

Polymarket reported $128,654 (2.8%) of trades backing the Timberwolves and $112,492 (2.4%) supporting the Wizards.

NBA Finals probabilities

With heavy player movement, NBA Finals odds and probabilities are constantly changing. However, Kalshi and Polymarket share a common view of the favorites to lift the Larry O'Brien Trophy in 2027.

The Oklahoma City Thunder (25% at Kalshi, 21% at Polymarket) and San Antonio Spurs (21% at Kalshi, 18% at Polymarket) are separated from the rest of the league. The defending-champion New York Knicks are third at 11% on both platforms, followed by the Boston Celtics (10% at Kalshi, 8% at Polymarket).

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Golden State Warriors are looking to make a splash in free agency or through trades this offseason, but first things first: they have to make sure to keep some of their own key players. And so, two days after agreeing to an extension with Kristaps Porziņģis, the Warriors have reportedly re-signed guard De’Anthony Melton.

According to ESPN’s Shams Charania, Melton’s new deal is for two years and $11 million, with a player option in the second year. It’s a pay bump of a few million for Melton, who had just declined a player option that would pay him $3.3 million in the upcoming season.

Melton has been open about enjoying his time with the Warriors and hoping to stay long term. He first signed with the team ahead of the 2024-25 season, but suffered a season-ending ACL injury early in the year, and was later traded. Despite that, he returned to the Warriors a year ago, and fit right in, averaging 12.3 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.6 steals per game, in 23.0 minutes. Melton’s three-point stroke fell off dramatically last year (he shot 29.4% from deep, after entering the year with a career 36.9% mark), but he did a wonderful job of running the team when Steph Curry was on the bunch (or sidelined with an injury).

During a hot stretch late in the year, it looked like Melton had played himself well out of the Warriors price range. But a cold stretch to end the season, mixed with his injury concerns, kept him at a price that the Warriors could afford. Given his skills, veteran reliability, and respect within the locker room, Steve Kerr and Mike Dunleavy Jr. have to be thrilled that Melton is returning.

Of course, the Warriors bringing back two of their older, oft-injured players, does nothing to change the biggest issue facing the team: age and injuries. But there’s plenty of time left in the offseason to address that.

Editor's note: Find July 1 live updates from NBA free agency here.

As LeBron James enters the free agent market as the most accomplished 41-year-old in NBA history, teams with championship aspirations are no doubt inquiring about his availability as he and agent Rich Paul scope out the lay of the land as teams chase and sign players in order to dethrone the champion New York Knicks.

With James, this decision isn't about money; if it were, he would have immediately re-signed with the Los Angeles Lakers, who were told to plan to play their 2026-27 season without the NBA's all-time leading scorer.

Loads of money for LeBron: Lakers, Nets, Bulls and Pistons

James is a Bird Rights free agent, meaning Los Angeles could have given him the value of his cap hold, which is $57.75 million for the upcoming season. A two-year deal with a player option could have been an option as well, in case he wants to retire after one more season.

There are few teams with the cap space to sign James, including the Brooklyn Nets, who are in total rebuild mode, putting them at a distinct disadvantage.

The 2026-27 NBA salary cap was set at $164.961 million, so the Chicago Bulls and the Detroit Pistons can easily create cap space by waiving or trading players to get those salaries off the books.

Mid-level exception contenders: Warriors, Celtics, Heat and more

Golden State, which has been rumored to covet James' services, will need to jump through some hurdles to acquire him. The Warriors are among nearly half the league that can offer a full mid-level exception. That list of teams also includes the Boston Celtics, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, and Dallas Mavericks.

This year's mid-level exception is set at $15.044 million, and, of course, James must decide if an opportunity justifies getting maximum value for his services, but ESPN.com reported that he is willing to accept a minimum contract to play for a contender.

Veteran minimum or bust: Cavaliers, Nuggets, Thunder

Speaking of the minimum, there are three teams that can offer James exactly that: The Cleveland Cavaliers, Denver Nuggets, and Oklahoma City Thunder. The Cavaliers, of course, would be a homecoming for James, as he spent 11 of his 23 seasons with the team and led them to their only championship in 2016. Cleveland is coming off a thumping in the East finals by the Knicks, and a third act of James would immediately put them as the conference favorite.

But for those teams to make room for James, they would not only have to offer him the minimum but also decide whether going further into another tier of salary cap space hell, known as the apron, is worth it. The Thunder seem content with where they are after signing their stars, including NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, to long-term extensions last year.

Wherever James ends up playing will be a fascinating case study in how he fits with a new roster and whether he immediately puts a team over the hump to get his elusive fifth championship ring.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: In LeBron James free agency, these teams have the most, and least, money to spend