A’s 8, Rangers 1

• My thought about this game is that I don’t want to think about it.
• Nathan Eovaldi hit 95.9 mph on his fastball, averaging 95.1 mph. Cal Quantrill hit 94.4 mph with both his fastball and his sinker.
• Corey Seager had a 106.4 mph double. Brandon Nimmo had a 105.5 mph fly out. Josh Jung had a 105.3 mph double. Josh Smith had a 103.9 mph single. Kyle Higashioka had a 102.5 mph line out. Alejandro Osuna had a 102.2 mph line out.
• On to the next game.

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The New York Yankees are hot once again, winners of four straight, and will look to make it two in a row over the Houston Astros tonight.

With a pitching matchup that tilts the Bombers' way, it's hard to look past the value on them here.

My Yankees vs Astros MLB predictions and MLB picks are taking a plus-money bet on New York on April 25, 2026. 

Who will win Yankees vs Astros today: Yankees -1.5 (+110)

This is a rough spot for Houston Astros pitcher Mike Burrows, as the New York Yankees are built to punish the exact pitching arsenal that he relies on. 

New York ranks 11th in baseball in barrels and hard-hit rate, sits well below the league average in chase rate, and generates elite exit velocity when they make contact.

For starters, I don't need to tell you that this Yankees lineup is elite against the fastball, but it's a story here given how much Burrows throws it. Perhaps a bigger story?

Burrows posted a chase rate in the 78th percentile of baseball, and New York had one of the lowest chase rates in the sport. This is a direct strength versus a strength, and I'll take the Yankees' bats in that fight more often than not.

COVERS INTEL:The Yankees have one of the lowest chase rates in the majors at 26%, with the league average nearly 30%. 

Yankees vs Astros Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+115)

The Astros rank 29th in overall Statcast hitting and have below-average hard-hit rates. So far, they've been a contact-first offense that doesn't do a ton of damage even when they put the ball in play.

I'm inclined to buy into that at least to some extent. 

Ryan Weathers' breaking ball has given him a strong putaway pitch, and I think it shows up again tonight. His last outing was dynamite, and I think his chase rate and whiff rate, which both rank in the top 70% of baseball, will play well against an offense that has struggled in 2026. 

While I expect the Yankees' bats to succeed against Burrows, I also expect they'll cool off to some degree and revert to their 2025 swing-and-miss metrics..

Yankees vs Astros odds

• Moneyline: Yankees -131 | Astros +119
• Run line: Yankees -1.5 (+105) | Astros +1.5 (-125)
• Over/Under: Over 9 (-120) | Under 9 (+100)

Yankees vs Astros trend

The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.65 Units / 27% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Astros.

How to watch Yankees vs Astros and game info

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The Detroit Tigers dropped their series opener against the Cincinnati Reds, 9-8, in a walk-off on Friday night after building an early lead and sitting through a two-hour rain delay.

On Saturday, they turn to right-hander Framber Montero to even things up in the Queen City against their NL foes. The 25-year-old hurler has been a godsend for the Motor City Kitties after replacing an aged Justin Verlander in the rotation, having already accumulated a full win above replacement (Fangraphs) in just four games.

Montero has faced the Reds just once before — a five-inning effort last year that saw him allow two runs on seven hits (two of them solo home runs) and a walk while striking out four in an 11-5 home victory.

Opposite him is fellow righty Brett Lowder, who has been solid so far in his second season of action. The 24-year-old will be facing the Tigers for the first time in his young career on Saturday.

The game will be broadcast nationally on FOX. Here is a look at how those two pitchers match up.

Detroit Tigers (14-13) vs. Cincinnati Reds (17-9)

Time (ET): 1:40 p.m.
Place: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio
SB Nation Site:Red Reporter
Media: FOX, Tigers Radio Network

Game 29: RHP Keider Montero (1-2, 3.68 ERA) vs. RHP Rhett Lowder (3-1, 3.10 ERA)

MONTERO

LOWDER

Worcester: L, 0-3 (BOX SCORE)

The Mets pitching staff pulled off a fantastic bullpen game on the uninspired WooSox offense. Worcester got just two hits on the night on the six pitchers Syracuse marched out, which totally upstaged whatever goodwill the Worcester staff got by allowing just one extra base hit on the night. There wasn’t much to write home about in this game, but kudos to the bullpen for not making the result even worse as well as Anthony Seigler for being the only WooSox bat on the night to reach base more than once. Hard to win games when hits are so tough to come by.

Portland: L, 1-5 (BOX SCORE)

No, Franklin Arias did not get a home run last night against the Yard Goats (Rockies AA). He actually didn’t even get a hit, failing to reach base for just the second time all season and seeing his OPS drop to a paltry, lackluster 1.340. His batting average is now just .408. The offense wasn’t found elsewhere in the Sea Dogs lineup, as they got just three hits on the night and only one off each pitcher Hartford marched out. The two runs the Sea Dogs allowed in the first innings ended up sealing the game, but no one knew it yet. Maybe Arias is a catalyst for the rest of this lineup…

Greenville: W, 9-6 (BOX SCORE)

The Drive had two guys mash their fourth home runs of the season, Mason White and Yophery Rodriguez. Rodriguez hit a go-ahead home run in late innings for the second time in a week. The Tourists (Astros High-A) couldn’t hit Greenville reliever Devin Futrell, as many on the year have struggled to do. Through 17 2/3 innings having already recieved a promotion, he just allowed his first run tonight, but he remained strong through more than four innings and gave those home runs a chance to elevate Greenville to a win.

Salem: : L, 4-14 (BOX SCORE)

The RidgeYaks jumped ahead of the Nationals with runs in each of the first two innings, but the lead wasn’t held for too much longer and they fell victim to their three errors on the night. Soon, that 2-0 lead was a 6-2 deficit, and it only got worse from there as Salem, on top of their defensive woes, also went hitless in nine attempts with guys in scoring position. When you allow extra bases with errors and allowing nine walks, you’re more apt to lose games.

Have a draftySaturday!

There’s something special about this Cubs team. Do you feel it?

Utterly dominated by Dodgers right-hander Emmet Sheehan for six innings, trailing 4-0 heading to the seventh, the Cubs cut that to 4-3 thanks in part to a triple (!) by Dansby Swanson. Then an Alex Bregman homer tied the game in the eighth, and Swanson’s two-run homer in the ninth gave the Cubs their 10th consecutive victory, 6-4 over the Dodgers.

Did I mention that two relievers who weren’t even on the radar when the season started threw four innings of two-hit relief against the tough Dodgers lineup?

Let’s begin at the beginning.

Jameson Taillon matched Sheehan for two innings, then gave up a single and walk leading off the third. Taillon struck out Shohei Ohtani and got Freddie Freeman on a line drive to center.

Unfortunately, Will Smith then smashed a three-run homer off Taillon. That’s been an issue for Jamo since Spring Training, when he allowed 10 homers in 13.1 innings. Now he’s allowed seven in 27.2 innings this season. It’s definitely a concern.

Former Cub Kyle Tucker might have made it back-to-back off Taillon, but Seiya Suzuki stole a homer from his ex-teammate [VIDEO].

The Cubs had a chance to score in the fourth. With one out, Michael Busch bounced one into the seats for an automatic double.

Then this happened [VIDEO].

I thought that was a bad send by Quintin Berry. The hit by Alex Bregman wasn’t that deep, it moved quickly and Dodgers center fielder Andy Pages charged it. True, it took a perfect throw to get Busch, but if he had stayed at third, the Cubs would have had first and third with one out. Instead, there were two out with Bregman taking second on the throw. Ian Happ popped up to end the inning.

The Dodgers scored in the bottom of the fourth to make it 4-0.

It was still that score in the sixth when Tucker got robbed again by a Cubs fielder, this time Swanson [VIDEO].

And Sheehan continued to mystify Cubs hitters. He struck out 10. More on Sheehan’s night from BCB’s JohnW53:

Emmet Sheehan is the first pitcher to record double-digit strikeouts vs. the Cubs this season. Two did it last year: Jesus Luzardo of the Phillies (10 in 6.0 IP) and Nolan McLean of the Mets (11 in 5.1). Six did it in 2024, five in 2023 and 17 (!) in 2022. The most whiffs by any of them was 12.

The Cubs finally got to him, and Dodgers relievers, in the seventh. Moisés Ballesteros singled off Sheehan with one out and that brought left-hander Alex Vesia in to face Carson Kelly, who flied to right. Then Vesia walked Pete Crow-Armstrong.

That brought up Swanson [VIDEO].

Swanson’s first triple of the year put the Cubs on the board. Now it’s 4-2 and Nico Hoerner made it 4-3 with this RBI single [VIDEO].

Well. Now we’ve got a ballgame! Hoerner likely wasn’t running here, but Vesia threw over to first three times and didn’t get Nico the third time. That’s a disengagement violation and Hoerner was awarded second base. I don’t recall that happening to the Cubs since that rule went into effect three years ago. There were only 35 such violations in all of MLB in 2025. Hoerner was stranded, though, when Busch struck out.

Nico then flashed some glove with this terrific heads-up play in the bottom of the seventh [VIDEO].

That’s not only an excellent play by Nico, but also give credit to reliever Ryan Rolison for alertly getting to first base when it was clear Busch wasn’t going to make it.

Blake Treinen relieved Vesia in the eighth. Bregman sent Treinen’s second pitch into the Dodger Stadium seats to tie the game [VIDEO].

The Cubs had a chance to take the lead later in the inning. Happ singled and one out later, Ballesteros doubled and Happ tried to score [VIDEO].

Now that one, I thought was a good send. You’ve got that chance to take the lead, and it would take two perfect throws to get Happ — and the Dodgers accomplished that. Hat tip to Pages and Hyeseong Kim for those two throws.

So the game remained tied to the bottom of the eighth. Rolison retired the side in order. Can’t say enough about Rolison, who entered 2026 with a 7.02 career ERA. He threw three shutout innings, allowing just two hits.

Then the Cubs scored what would be the decisive runs in the ninth. PCA led off with a single.

Swanson launched this baseball deep into the SoCal night [VIDEO].

Look where that pitch was — right down the middle of the zone. Swanson did not miss it!

That ball was absolutely demolished [VIDEO].

The next three Cubs were retired in order, so they went to the bottom of the ninth with a two-run lead. On to save the game was… Corbin Martin, another reliever with a career ERA north of 6. The Cubs signed him to a minor-league deal in January and assigned him to Triple-A Iowa to start the season. He’s only in the big leagues because, well, you know about all the pitching injuries.

Martin calmly dispatched the Dodgers 1-2-3 on 14 pitches — a strikeout of Teoscar Hernández, a fly ball to PCA by Max Muncy, and this fly ball to center by Pages to end the game [VIDEO].

A note on this comeback from John:

The Cubs now have erased 10 deficits this season, each in a different game. They eventually lost the first two, Opening Day (March 26) vs. the Nationals and April 11 vs. the Pirates. They have won all eight since then, including each of the last three days.

Last year, the Cubs erased 68 deficits in 60 games. Of those 60, they eventually won 32 and lost 28.

Here are some postgame comments from Swanson [VIDEO].

I’ll say it again:

There’s something special about this Cubs team. Do you feel it?

I think the players feel it. Everyone steps up, every single member of the 26-man roster including the guys added to it because of injury. So many Cubs contributed to this win, including Rolison and Martin, neither of whom were on this roster a couple of weeks ago — and Rolison hadn’t pitched in 10 days.

The last time any Cubs team won 11 in a row was July 31-Aug. 12, 2016. This year’s Cubs will try to match that when they take on the Dodgers this evening in the second of this three-game series. Colin Rea will start for the Cubs and Roki Sasaki goes for the Dodgers. Game time is 6:15 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Fox-TV (regional — coverage map). A reminder that if you subscribe to MLB.TV or MLB Extra Innings, you can watch this game via those services even if it’s not on the Fox affiliate in your market.

Triple-A: Norfolk Tides 1, Memphis Redbirds (Cardinals) 0 — 10 inn.

Runs were hard to come by in this one, as nobody scored until the Tides walked it off in the bottom of the 10th. Christian Encarnacion-Strand did the honors with a bases-loaded single to right to drive in Maikol Hernández and send the Tides fans home happy. Encarnacion-Strand had two of Norfolk’s six hits, and Creed Willems had two others. All six hits were singles. Leadoff man Jud Fabian reached base thrice on a hit and two walks.

Six Tides pitchers combined for the 10-inning shutout. Starter Cameron Weston handled the first 3.2 innings, striking out six, and five relievers each worked at least one scoreless inning. That group included rehabbing O’s lefty Dietrich Enns, who tossed a perfect sixth. Southpaw Josh Walker earned the win with two scoreless frames, stranding the go-ahead run at third base with nobody out in the 10th.

Box score

Double-A: Akron RubberDucks (Guardians) 10, Chesapeake Baysox 8

In stark contrast to the Tides, the Baysox played a game that featured 18 runs and 28 baserunners. The Baysox fell behind by five runs after a six-run Akron fourth inning, then stormed back with seven unanswered to take an 8-6 lead, only to let the RubberDucks score the game’s final four runs to conclude a roller coaster of a game.

Chesapeake got no help from the top of the lineup — with #1 and #2 hitters Brandon Butterworth and Aron Estrada going 0-for-9 — but plenty of production from the bottom. The #8 hitter Tavian Josenberger was 2-for-3 with a double, three runs, and two RBIs, and #9 man Frederick Bencosme was 2-for-4 and drove in three.

All four Baysox pitchers allowed at least one run, but they have their defense to blame for a lot of it. Akron scored six unearned runs thanks to three Baysox errors. Both the second baseman Estrada and third baseman Carter Young committed errors in the top of the ninth that led to Akron’s tie-breaking two-run rally. Earlier, a miscue by Butterworth at short cost starter Sebastian Gongora three unearned runs. Jose Espada, just sent down from the Orioles’ bullpen yesterday, pitched 1.1 innings for Chesapeake and gave up two runs.

Box score

High-A: Wilmington Blue Rocks (Nationals) 7, Frederick Keys 3

What a performance by Frederick starter Juaron Watts-Brown, the Orioles’ acquisition in last year’s Seranthony Domínguez trade. The right-hander pitched five scoreless, hitless innings with eight strikeouts, retiring 15 of the 16 batters he faced. Watts-Brown is on a rehab assignment from Chesapeake, and he sure looks like he’s about ready to head back to Double-A.

Unfortunately, as soon as Watts-Brown left the game, things spiraled quickly. Towering lefty prospect Boston Bateman got blasted for seven runs (five earned) and nine hits in just 2.1 innings. He also committed two balks. Ugly.

It wasn’t a banner day for the Frederick offense overall, with 11 strikeouts and just one walk, but the two highly touted 2025 draft picks — Ike Irish and Wehiwa Aloy — each homered. Orioles fans could get used to seeing that. Vance Honeycutt took an 0-for-4 with two strikeouts. Nate George did not play.

Box score

Low-A: Delmarva Shorebirds 7, Wilson Warbirds (Brewers) 2

This marked the professional debut for left-hander Caden Hunter, the Orioles’ sixth-round pick last year, and he had his ups and downs. In 2.2 innings, he held the Warbirds to one hit, but also walked three. The only run on his ledger was an unearned one. Christian Rodriguez picked up the win with 3.2 innings of long relief, striking out seven and giving up just an unearned run.

Catcher Johnny Tincher, signed as a minor league free agent earlier this week, made his organizational debut and smacked a home run and drove in four. Not a bad first impression. His dinger was Delmarva’s only extra-base hit, but the Shorebirds made the most of their six singles, five walks, and four stolen bases to tally a seven-run game.

Box score

Saturday’s scheduled games:

• Norfolk: vs. Memphis, 6:35 PM. Starter: Cade Povich (0-1, 5.40)
• Chesapeake: vs. Akron, 2:05 PM. Starter: Christian Heberholz (0-1, 9.39)
• Frederick: vs. Wilmington, 6:00 PM. Starter: Twine Palmer (0-1, 6.75)
• Delmarva: vs. Wilson, 7:05 PM. Starter: Kailen Hamson (0-2, 11.25)

Heading into Friday’s game, the Cardinals’ record stood at 14-10. Extrapolate that winning percentage over a full season, and we are looking at a 95-win pace! The Cardinals are back, let the good times roll! OK, a 95-win pace might be a little optimistic… Over at FanGraphs, their projection system actually likes the Cardinals LESS than when the season started and is projecting them to win only 45.6% of their remaining games (down from 46.4% on Opening Day).  Maybe we shouldn’t start planning a parade just yet. I will fully admit that we still do not really know who these 2026 Cardinals are, but as they continue to bank wins, Chaim Bloom has to be considering the possibility of a more complicated trade deadline than originally anticipated. Since we do not know if the Cardinals are real, the only reasonable solution I can think of is to flip a coin (or a few million) and try to predict if Chaim Bloom will get to take a summer vacation or will be glued to the phone lines come August 3rd. 

Before we start flipping coins, let’s set the stage. The Cardinals have played 24 games and have 89 more to go until the trade deadline. The NL Central is shaping up to be an absolute dogfight with all five teams currently over the .500 mark, but with the advent of the third wild card in 2022, there are an increasingly large number of teams that remain in contention later into the summer. So, with 14 wins in the bank, how many of the 89 games remaining until the deadline would the Cardinals need to win to be considered a proper contender and perhaps force Chaim to hang onto his expiring contracts or even consider adding players? To answer this question, I went back and looked at all teams with a record better than .500 on August 3rd of the last four seasons and averaged their odds of making the playoffs at that point in time. 

This does not come close to capturing all the context of team quality, strength of schedule, and divisional situation, but it gives a directional reference point as to what kind of a record is needed to be considered “in contention” at the trade deadline. Nine of the ten teams between 7-9 games over .500 at the last four deadlines have had playoff odds greater than 50%, so that seems like as good a place as any to draw the contention line. 

Using a random number generator, I simulated 100,000 sets of the 89 individual games remaining until the deadline to see how often the Cardinals landed at a 60-53 record or better by August 3rd. For the first run, I slightly weighted the coin to give the Cardinals a 45.6% chance to win each game to reflect their current rest-of-year projected winning percentage. Here are the results:

So if we assume the projection systems nailed the Cardinals’ team quality and the first 24 games were just lucky, the hot streak has given them a 15% chance to be squarely in contention with another 19% chance of being over .500 but more on the fringes of the race. This raises the question, what were the chances going into the season that the Cardinals would be in contention at the deadline, if we assume the projected 45.6% winning percentage is accurate? I re-ran the simulation for the full pre-deadline 113-game sample size without giving the computer knowledge of the first 24 games. Out of 100,000 runs, only 6.5% of the stretches ended with a record of 60-53 or better, less than half of what the simulation spits out now. 

Now, what if you are on the more optimistic end of the spectrum and the first 24 games have convinced you that the Cardinals are a true-talent .500 ballclub and have roughly even odds in each game? Once again, I ran 100,000 sets of the remaining 89 pre-deadline games and saw a dramatic increase in complicated trade deadline scenarios. The results: 

There you have it: if you accept the premise that 7 games over .500 at the trade deadline is fully “in contention” AND you believe the Cardinals are a .500 talent team, there is a 42% chance of a trade deadline that will have Chaim tossing and turning. 

The real question I was trying to answer with this article was how impactful early-season wins can be in setting the stage for one of the largest front-office decision-making points each season. Obviously, the front office will have a more robust algorithm than “7 games over .500 we buy or hold, anything worse, we sell.” The standings at that point in time will be a real factor, as will the internal assessment on how “real” the team’s record is. Still, this framing does give a directional sense of what it means to bank early-season wins. If the Cardinals continue at this pace for another month, or stumble into a seven-game winning streak, the team’s position could force Chaim into making an uncomfortable decision.

What would the Cardinals’ record need to be for you to support the unthinkable, adding at the deadline? Should Bloom continue to stay the course of deferred gratification and trade all the expiring contracts no matter what? I am not sure how I would answer either of these questions, but I would love to wrestle with them for another couple of months, if the Redbirds want to keep on winning for a bit. 

Each day I drive to work, it’s a decent drive. 35 minutes one way doesn’t sound like much until you actually have to do it each time. During those drives, I listen to a lot of podcasts and yesterday, I caught the latest episode of “Phillies Therapy”. If you’ve listened to it, you know that Matt Gelb and former TGPer Paul Boye are two of the best to talk about the team (shoutout to John Stolnis as well!). On the episode, Gelb talked about the possibility that the team has already lost the division and April isn’t over.

That brings us to our question of the day: have the Phillies already lost the division before May has even begun? As Gelb reminded us, the old adage about how a division can’t be won in April, but it can sure be lost seems to be able to be applied here. The losing streak has plunged them into a hole that they may not be able to get out of, either for the division or a playoff spot.

Everything about Grant Holmes just says reliever. The heavy fastball-slider usage, the pitches that seem to come and go, the 2 times through the order numbers, the stache, the long hair. Yet he’s grabbed 33 starts with Atlanta in the last 3 years. This year’s 2TTO numbers weren’t bad coming into this start. Though they were not great last night and his 1TTO and 2TTO FIP are probably close to equal now for the season. (I mean, it’s late as I’m writing this so I ain’t mathing it. I’m not AI, or at least the prompt Ivan used to create me compels me to deny it.)

These numbers (coming into last night) are pretty damning for a starter. The FIP increases by 2.24; the OBP by .109; the SLG by .187. So why do the Braves have him starting? Well, the answer to that question is answered by two others? One, when are Spencer Schwellenback and Hurston Waldrep coming back? And two, is one of his offerings going to become a reliable third pitch?

He’s yet to find consistent results with any of his offerings. The curveball is flattening out. The changeup is meh. But the slider and fastball has been good. So maybe he and Chris Sale can put their heads together and come up with a new approach. Or he could grow half a foot to Sale’s level. That would make his arsenal dance.

To the Schwellenback and Waldrep question, I don’t know. I haven’t heard anything about their progress lately. Availability is the best ability and all that. Grant has a decent fastball. So there you go, I guess. He’s been fine, but matchups with the Tigers, Dodgers and Cubs are looming.

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Saturday is littered with Major League Baseball, with 15 games on tap.

That means plenty of MLB player props to choose from, including a hot-hitting Randy Arozarena looking to do some damage against lefty Matthew Liberatore in St Louis.

Read below for the rest of my favorite MLB picks for Saturday, April 25

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Randy Arozarena	Over 1.5 Hits	+210
Kevin Gausman	Over 5.5 strikeouts	+126
Ronald Acuna Jr.	2+ Total Bases	+105

Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 hits (+210)

Randy Arozarena doubled and scored a run in Friday’s 3-2 series opening win over the St. Louis Cardinals, which gives him hits in 10 of his last 13 games.

Of those games, six have been multi-hit efforts, and he draws a favorable matchup Saturday against Matthew Liberatore. In just five at-bats, Arozarena has two hits against him, including a homer and four RBI.

The Seattle Mariners’ left fielder is hitting .364 against lefties on the season (8-for-22) with a home run, a double and two RBI.

• Time: 2:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Mariners.TV, Cardinals.TV

Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 strikeouts (+126)

After back-to-back 10+ strikeout performances to start the season, veteran Toronto Blue Jays righty Kevin Gausman has been Under six strikeouts the next three starts.

But the Cleveland Guardians are a good matchup for him, as this current edition is hitting just .196 in 92 at-bats, with Gausman striking out 25.

In both starts against the Guardians in 2025, he was on point: Gausman pitched six innings of shutout ball allowing just one hit on May 3, striking out nine.

He followed that up on June 26 by going 8.0 scoreless innings, giving up two hits and fanning six.

• Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: FS1

Ronald Acuna Jr. 2+ total bases (+105)

Ronald Acuna Jr. is coming off just his second homer of the year in their series opening win over the Philadelphia Phillies, giving him hits in 14 of his last 17, grabbing at least two total bases in seven of them.

He’ll face Zack Wheeler Saturday, and he’s shown some pop against the veteran righty, going 12-for-49 (.245), with four doubles, four home runs and seven RBI.

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSP, BravesVision

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