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The Cubs wrapped up their first series against the Nationals at home over the weekend. It didn’t go as planned with the North iders dropping two of three games after both Matthew Boyd and Shōta Imanaga had some trouble with the long ball. But the big news last week wasn’t the opening series, it came in terms of contract extensions, with Jed Hoyer and company wrapping up one big deal on the eve of Opening Day extending centerfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong through the 2032 season and completing another with second baseman Nico Hoerner at the end of the week. Today, let’s take a closer look at the numbers behind PCA’s deal. You can see the basic structure of the deal by year per Jon Heyman below:

The deal does not include a team option which ESPN’s Senior MLB Insider, Jeff Passan noted is rare for an extension of a young player under team control:

Obviously the money matters a lot here. Buying out PCA’s arbitration years at $55 million, followed by $30 million a year guaranteed in free agency says that the Cubs believe PCA will be a star. The fact that this is a six year deal rather than a longer deal like the fully guaranteed 12-year contract Julio Rodríguez signed for a guaranteed $209 million or a pre-debut deal like eight year contract Jackson Chourio signed for a guaranteed $82 million tells you a little bit about where the Cubs see PCA relative to two other young, star outfielders. Unlike PCA’s deal, both of those deals have options. Like PCA’s deal, both of those deals have escalators that can push the value of the contract far higher than its guaranteed rate, in PCA’s case adding potentially $18 million to the deal.

Pete Crow-Armstrong gets the benefit of being assured he’ll hit free agency before his age-30 season. That’s an interesting nugget in this deal given that the biggest question mark in terms of PCA’s long-term value is his ability to control (or not) the the strike zone. A skill that he could continue to improve on marking last year’s gains or one that could fall apart entirely as he ages. From FanGraphs’ write-up of the extension:

That’s decent, but I don’t know if I’d call it plus power or anything; Crow-Armstrong’s EV90 in 2025 was 81st out of 145 qualified hitters. That’s where the other two changes come in. As a rookie, PCA had a 79.2% Z-Contact%. Anything below 80% in that mark is survivable, but it’s hard to thrive in that range without truly elite power. In 2025, he raised his in-zone contact rate to 83.8%.

Third: He is getting the absolute maximum out of what contact he makes. The most valuable batted balls, in general, are hit in the air and to the pull side. In 2024, Crow-Armstrong put 19.3% of his batted balls in that direction, which is above average, even good. In 2025, that number was 30.2%, which was the seventh-highest figure out of 251 players on Baseball Savant’s leaderboard.

Crow-Armstrong hit 31 home runs last year because he got the absolute maximum out of his plate discipline and quality-of-contact numbers. Add in the defense and the baserunning, and I think this might literally be the best all-around baseball player you could have with a 4.5% walk rate and a .247 batting average.

But he’s still a player with a .247 batting average and a 4.5% walk rate. Or, to use the more legible figure I mentioned above, a .287 OBP. Last year, Crow-Armstrong made more outs per plate appearance than Nick Castellanos, Lenyn Sosa, and Ke’Bryan Hayes. Is it possible to be a franchise player if that’s true? We’ll find out.

To put this slightly differently, there are question marks about whether PCA will age like Javy Báez or Castellanos — both players who had above average contact skills, right until time caught up to them and then they didn’t.

In that sense, this deal is timed perfectly for both the Cubs and PCA. The Cubs will get a chance to see how that contact tool develops (or doesn’t) over the next six years. If it looks like it will age poorly, they locked down the very best years of PCA in centerfield at Wrigley Field and he should still be a valuable enough player to command additional years of service with another team. If it looks like that tool has improved, they can attempt to negotiate another extension that would make PCA a Cub for life. You can get a sense of the variability in PCA’s hit tool from this 15-game rolling wOBA chart through the 2025 season:

Even with some concerns about a contact tool that may provide some high-highs and low-lows similar to last season, his defense should provide a floor that makes the deal well worth the guaranteed $115 million. PCA is already one of the best defenders in the league. According to Statcast, he saved 22 runs in centerfield during the 2025 season and was tied with Bobby Witt Jr. for the league lead in outs above average with 24. The value of his run-prevention in centerfield alone makes this a smart extension for a Cubs team that tends to sign pitchers who pitch to contact.

And then there’s the chance that PCA finds the level he hit in the first half of 2025 consistently and puts up multiple 30-30 seasons during the lifetime of his extension. If PCA can be a perennial 30-30 guy in addition to the value his glove provides, this deal could wind up being a steal for the Cubs.

Milwaukee has acquired Venezuelan outfielder Luis Matos from the San Francisco Giants in exchange for cash considerations. To make room on the 40-man roster, LHP Sammy Peralta has been designated for assignment.

Matos, the Giants’ No. 7 prospect heading into the 2023 season, made his major league debut in May of that year and recorded at least 150 at-bats in each of the last three seasons. He mashed in the minors, posting an .837 OPS in Triple-A last season, but so far that production has failed to translate to the majors. He had the best season of his career in 2025, but his .690 OPS mark was still below-average.

Matos, who’s still just 24, was DFA’ed by San Francisco last week despite slashing .260/.327/.440 in 50 at-bats this spring. He figures to play a depth role in Milwaukee’s outfield as a right-handed option after the injuries to Andrew Vaughn and Jackson Chourio in the last week. The team has not announced a corresponding move to open a spot on the 26-man active roster.

Also of note: Matos is a certified Brewer killer, with a career 1.255 OPS in 20 at-bats against Milwaukee. If you can’t stop ‘em, get ‘em.

Peralta, 27, was claimed off waivers from the Angels over the offseason. In parts of three MLB seasons with the White Sox and Angels, the lefty has made 30 relief appearances, with a 5.12 ERA, 4.29 FIP, and 37 strikeouts across 45 2/3 innings. He made six appearances this spring, allowing six runs (five earned) with three strikeouts over six innings of work. Sent to Triple-A Nashville to begin the season, he’ll now head back to waivers.

Baseball returns to Kansas City today as the Royals host the Twins for their 2026 home opener. After going 1-2 over the weekend against the Braves, the Royals will look for a win today to reach .500, as sort of meaningless as it is this early in the season.

Max has you covered on the series preview, as usual, which you can find here. He also has you covered on some of the logistics of opening day.

For today’s game, Kris Bubic takes the hill for the first time this season. We last saw him start a game during the regular season on July 26th, 2025, before he was injured and shut down for the season. He was in the midst of an excellent season in which he threw for a 2.55 ERA / 2.89 FIP / 3.3 fWAR. There was a lot of trade speculation during the offseason since he is entering the final year before free agency, but a trade never materialized. I imagine that speculation will restart in June/July depending on how the Royals are positioned in the playoff race. In the meantime, I just hope to see him healthy.

The Twins send Simeon Woods Richardson to start. He’s a big right-handed pitcher who throws roughly five pitches – a four seam fastball, slider, curveball, split-finger, and changeup. To me, the split-finger and changeup share a similar movement profile; his changeup is just slower. His fastball sits about 93 on average, so he doesn’t bring any overpowering heat and does not get a ton of strikeouts.

Woods Richardson pitched to a 4.04 ERA / 4.52 FIP / 1.2 fWAR in 23 appearances last year across 111.1 innings. He’s definitely hittable. It will be interesting to see if the new fence line at Kauffman will make itself known in the first game. It will be a warm opening day – the ball may carry more than usual for a March game, and Woods Richardson is a fly ball pitcher. The ingredients are here for some fun.

The game starts at 3:10pm US Central time. You can watch the game on Royals.TV, or if you are local to Kansas City, it will be available over-the-air on KCTV5/KSMO. You can listen on 96.5 The Fan or the Royals Radio Network.

Lineups:

The San Francisco Giants head south to take on their division rival San Diego Padres tonight at Petco Park.

Taking the mound for the Giants will be right-hander Landen Roupp, who completed the 2025 season with a 3.80 ERA, 3.91 FIP with 102 strikeouts to 45 walks in 106.2 innings pitched.

He’ll be facing off against Padres right-hander Walker Buehler, who completed the 2025 season with a 4.93 ERA, 5.66 FIP with 92 strikeouts to 61 walk in 126 innings pitched between the Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies. Buehler, of course, is a familiar face in the NL West, having played the majority of his career thus far with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Game #4

Who: San Francisco Giants (0-3) vs. San Diego Padres (1-2)

Where: Petco Park, San Diego, California

When: 6:40 p.m. PT

Regional broadcast: NBC Sports Bay Area

National broadcast: Fox Sports 1

Radio: KNBR 680 AM/104.5 FM, KSFN 1510 AM

First Pitch (CT): 3:10 PM
TV: Twins.TV
Radio: TIBN/830 WCCO/102.9 The Wolf /Audacy App
Know Yo’ Foe: Royals Review

After a back-and-forth game against the Orioles, the Twins are back in action this afternoon against Bobby Witt Jr. and the Kansas City Royals. The Royals are running back largely the same squad as 2025 and banking on better health from their pitchers and continued improvement from former Top 100 prospects Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen. If that sounds similar to the Twins, you would be absolutely correct!

The Royals are sending lefty Kris Bubic to the mound for his first start of the season. Bubic was phenomenal in the first half last season, leading to an All-Star nod, but faltered down the stretch as fatigue and injuries kept him off the field. The Twins will run out the same lineup they did on Opening Day vs fellow lefty Trevor Rogers, though they’ll need Luke Keaschall and Ryan Jeffers to show some life if they want to get some traction.

Lineups

As the Colorado Rockies MLB and Triple-A teams move into action, rosters are becoming available for the rest of the organizations farm system.

Triple-A Albuquerque

The Albuquerque Isotopes will field the following roster to start the season:

For the Isotopes, the name of the game is tested depth.

Very few players on this roster are making their Triple-A debut. Instead, the Rockies brought in a group of versatile veterans, and some of them young players. The focus will be letting roster progression happen naturally using that depth rather than promoting players before they are ready.

Charlie Condon (No. 1 PuRP) and Cole Carrigg (No. 4 PuRP) are the position players to watch. On the pitching side, LHP Welinton Herrera (No. 17 PuRP) is the big bullpen name. Then of course the roster features two starters on the cusp of promotion: RHP Gabriel Hughes (No. 12 PuRP) and LHP Sean Sullivan (No. 8 PuRP).

Double-A Hartford

This year, the Yard Goats will begin the season with the following roster:

Things become a bit more complicated when looking at the Yard Goats roster.

There are a number of repeat assignments, some of which are clearly warranted. The Rockies decision to send Victor Juárez (No. 44 PuRP) back to Hartford after ending last season in ABQ is an interesting move.

However, there are also a few aggressive promotions, like Jimmy Obertop (who wasn’t impressive in Spokane to end last season). The decision to send Braylen Wimmer (No. 40 PuRP) going back to Hartford is notable. He spent 45 games there last season and to go back to playing at a high level so soon after his brain surgery shows he believes in himself and the organization believes in him as well.

Look for LHP Griffin Herring (No. 10 PuRP) and INF Roc Riggio (No. 14 PuRP) to be in Albuquerque by the end of the season.

That said, that fact that Dyan Jorge (No. 21 PuRP), Zach Kokoska (No. 53 PuRP), and Benny Montgomery (No. 43 PuRP) are still not able to bust past Double-A is a concern.

High-A Spokane

The Spokane Indians will begin the season with the following players:

Here’s where things get interesting.

The Rockies were very aggressive with the pitching staff assignments. Having RHP Yujanyer Herrera (No. 22 PuRP) and RHP Jordy Vargas (No. 21 PuRP) healthy and pitching right out of the gate is excellent, and the organization finally letting RHP Jackson Cox (No. 16 PuRP) off the leash after being overly cautious with him in Fresno last season.

RHP Brody Brecht (No. 3 PuRP) clearly has earned the promotion, and Antoine Jean (No. 46 PuRP) has received an aggressive assignment for his first affiliated professional ball. Everett Catlett is a repeat assignment, but he was solid in Spokane last year and he’ll no doubt be in Hartford at some point this season.

The rotation in Spokane will be one to watch.

The position players to watch are Max Belyeu (No. 15 PuRP) and Ethan Hedges (No. 29 PuRP), both on repeat after short assignments after the draft last year. The Rockies have also promoted Robert Calaz (No. 6 PuRP), who probably should have been in Spokane at some point last season.

Other than that, lots of familiar faces from Fresno getting the bump up to High-A.

The most notable omission? Ethan Holliday, who will start the season in Fresno.

Low-A Fresno

We’ll update the roster when it becomes available.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers welcome a postseason team from last season, the Cleveland Guardians, to Chavez Ravine for a three-game set.

Game 1 sees Roki Sasaki make his first start since last May, while Cleveland counters with prospect Parker Messick. 

That’s part of why my Guardians vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks expect the Over to hit in this interleague matchup, with first pitch at Dodger Stadium scheduled for 10:10 pm ET on Monday, March 30.

Guardians vs Dodgers predictions

Guardians vs Dodgers best bet: Over 8.5 (-120)

The Los Angeles Dodgers lineup is even more ridiculous with Kyle Tucker in the middle of it, as they scored 16 runs over the weekend. 

They face Parker Messick, a lefty making just his seventh career start. Messick isn't a hard thrower, and if he misses his spots against this Dodgers lineup, he could be in trouble.

Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians look like they finally might have another bat to support Jose Ramirez in Chase DeLauter, who’s already hit four dingers.

It’s hard to know what L.A. will get out of Roki Sasaki as a starter, so expect some runs.

COVERS INTEL: The Dodgers ranked third in OPS and fourth in wRC+ when facing left-handed pitching last season.

Guardians vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)

Tucker is off to a solid if unspectacular start with his new team. He's 2-for-11 with two RBI and three runs scored.

I like this matchup for him tonight. He’s a lefty who always hits southpaws as well as he does right-handers, so we’re almost always getting value when he’s got a lefty-lefty matchup.

On the other side, no one’s had a hotter start to the season than Chase DeLauter. The rookie phenom has already slugged four home runs with a 1.412 OPS.

Guardians vs Dodgers SGP

• Over 8.5
• Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 RBI
• Chase DeLauter Over 0.5 RBI

Guardians vs Dodgers home run pick: Mookie Betts (+440)

Mookie Betts is my favorite value to go yard at Chavez Ravine tonight at this price. Betts had a terrible, slow start to last season and ended up with just 20 home runs. Still, seven of those came against left-handers in nearly 300 fewer at-bats.

Betts had a .750 OPS vs. lefties last season and has a career .897 OPS against them. He’s also gone deep once already this season, so I’m betting another early-season slump is unlikely.

Guardians vs Dodgers odds

• Moneyline: Cleveland +154 | Los Angeles -184
• Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-132) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+110)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Guardians vs Dodgers trend

The Dodgers have hit the team total Over in 22 of their last 35 games, good for +8.80 Units and a 22% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Guardians vs Dodgers and game info

Guardians vs Dodgers latest injuries

Guardians vs Dodgers weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

This week we have another fantastic episode for you “Birdo” brains! Joe Doyle of http://overslotbaseball.com/ joined Jake and Scott to talk all things MLB draft! The Cardinals own 6 of the top 86 picks in the 2026 MLB draft cycle. We will be covering all of the elements of that in the lead-up to one of the most consequential drafts in Cardinals history!

To follow along with all of Joe’s great insights and his podcast episodes with scouting directors and high-ranking executives, you can subscribe to his Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/cw/Overslot/membership

Follow Joe on X: https://x.com/JoeDoyleMiLB

This week, we talked about the upcoming CBA negotiations that could affect the lower levels of the minor leagues, the Cardinals’ new “type” and players who fit what they’re looking for now (hint: it’s no longer 92 MPH sinkers), players who are projecting in that 13 spot range, JJ Wetherholt and what Joe saw coming out of West Virginia, and much more! Oh, and this week is only 30 minutes so, for those of you who prefer a shorter episode, this ones for you!

Next week we will be doing our first “reader mailbag” episode of the season!

-Thanks for listening

Welcome back to Monday Stat Party, a weekly series showcasing the most curious and nostalgia-inducing statistical developments from the past week of Mets baseball. These can be as high-profile as becoming the youngest MLB player to homer, steal, and walk on Opening Day, or as obscure as setting a team record for the most double-digit strikeout games on Opening Day over the past thirteen years — both of which are included in today’s list. What unites each entry is the sense of intrigue which they aim to spark, and the unbridled love of the game’s anomalies from which they arise. So without further ado, let the stat party begin…

THURSDAY

Brandon Lowe’s early home run marked only the second time in 21 years that the Mets have surrendered a run in the first inning on Opening Day. In 2016, an Eric Hosmer single put the Royals up 1-0 against Matt Harvey in the first.

Pirates starter Paul Skenes was relieved after just 0.2 innings pitched, marking the shortest start for an opposing pitcher on Opening Dayin Mets history. Since 1983, only two other Opening Day starters (José Berrios in 2022 and Kyle Gibson in 2021) have failed to complete an inning of work.

The Mets’ pitching staff recorded double-digit strikeouts on Opening Day for the ninth time in the past thirteen seasons. No other National League team has done so more than seven times in that span.

The Mets scored eleven runs on Opening Day for the third time in franchise history, having done so previously in 2013 against the Padres and 1994 against the Cubs.

The Mets scored five runs in an inning on Opening Day for the fifth time in franchise history. They most recently did it back-to-back years in 2017 against the Braves and 2018 against the Cardinals.

The Mets hit multiple home runs on Opening Day for the first time since 2014, when Andrew Brown, Juan Lagares, and David Wright went deep against Stephen Strasburg, Tyler Clippard, and Jerry Blevins, respectively.

Carson Benge and Francisco Alvarez gave the Mets their first back-to-back homers on Opening Day since 1994, when José Vizcaíno and Todd Hundley went deep in the top of the third inning at Wrigley Field. Darryl Strawberry and Kevin McReynolds also accomplished the feat in 1988 at Montreal, with Strawberry’s legendary homer hitting the roof at Olympic Stadium.

Benge is one of only two Mets to homer in their MLB debut on Opening Day, joining Kaz Matsui in 2004. Benge is one of just nine Mets to reach base three times in their MLB debut, and the first since Steven Matz in 2015.

Benge is the only player to homer, walk, and steal a base in their MLB debut on Opening Day. Benge is one of just three players in the modern era to homer, walk, and steal a base in their MLB debut, joining Weston Wilson (2023) and Bert Campaneris (1964). 

Benge is also the youngest player to homer, walk, and steal a base on Opening Day, coming in just ahead of Bryce Harper and Barry Bonds. (credit: Metsmerized’s Mathew Brownstein)

Eight players made their Mets debut, marking the most in a given game since Opening Day in 1995. (credit: MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo)

For the fifth straight season, the Mets had an Opening Day starting pitcher who had never started on Opening Day for them before (Tylor Megill, Max Scherzer, Jose Quintana, Clay Holmes, Freddy Peralta). That’s only happened one other time in Mets history, from 2013-2017 (Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, Bartolo Colón, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard).

The Mets improved to 42-23 on Opening Day, with a .646 Opening Day winning percentage that ranks first among the 30 current major league clubs.

SATURDAY

The Mets remained locked in a 0-0 tie through nine innings for the first time since April 1, 2024, when they lost to the Tigers to fall to 0-4 on the season.

Luis Robert Jr. became the fourth player in Citi Field history to notch their first Mets homer in walk-off fashion, joining Henry Blanco (2010), Eric Young Jr. (2013), and Jesse Winker (2024).

Robert hit the Mets’ first walk-off home run while trailing in the eleventh inning or later since Dominic Smith did it on the final day of the 2019 season against the Braves. Just over two hours after Robert’s home run, Smith hit a walk-off grand slam in his first game as a member of the Braves. (credit: SNY’s Mets Pregame show)

SUNDAY

Starter Nolan McLean and right fielder Carson Benge were teammates at Oklahoma State, where McLean had more homers than Benge and Benge had more strikeouts than McLean. (credit: MLB on X)

In the first two innings, McLean threw three pitches over 98 mph. During his eight starts in the majors last season, McLean threw just one pitch over 98 mph.

McLean has recorded 65 strikeouts through his first nine career starts. That ties him with Al Leiter and Mark Prior for tenth all-time. Former Mets Dwight Gooden (73) and Nolan Ryan (71) rank sixth and eighth, respectively, while Thursday’s starter Paul Skenes (70) ranks ninth.

Luis Robert Jr. is one of only four Mets to record five RBI and reach base eight times in a season’s first three games, joining David Wright (2008), Mike Piazza (2004), and Bobby Bonilla (1995). He is also the fifteenth Met to record five RBI and five hits in a season’s first three games, and the first to do it since John Buck in 2013.

The Mets have now played extra innings in two of their first three games for the fourth time in franchise history, joining 1965 (Astros), 1985 (Cardinals), and 1991 (Phillies). All four instances have occurred with the Mets as the home team.

Miscellaneous Mets stat of the week:

Only three Mets have made 10+ Opening Day starts: David Wright (12), Tom Seaver (11), and Bud Harrelson (11).