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Mariners 4, Rangers 3

• I’m bummed. So bummed.
• This game…sigh.
• Jacob deGrom was, so, so good.
• 19 batters faced. 12 fanned. Just one hit, on a ball that goes for an out if he doesn’t get his glove on it.
• Everything seemed set up for the Rangers to take the finale and keep up in the playoff hunt.
• And then…
• Everything comes crashing down.
• The bullpen, which has been the source of so many problems of late, was to blame.
• But this time, it was one of the reliable guys, one of the pitchers we haven’t had cause to complain about.
• Jakob Junis, someone who feel good about, someone who we think, if we can just get the game to him and Jacob Latz, we are in good shape.
• A hit batter. A slow roller the other way that snuck through the infield. A single. And then a Julio Rodriguez blast.
• And like that, in a span of four batters, the game, and the Rangers season, has turned around.
• The Rangers had an uphill battle to make the playoffs even with a win in Seattle. The odds were against them.
• But I felt like they could do it. They could make it to the postseason. Not that they would, necessarily, but they could.
• Now? Now, it feels like the season is over.
• And we can think about all the games the Rangers could have won this year, but didn’t, all the missed opportunities.
• Or we can just think about this one game, about the ball caroming perfectly off the backstop to Cal Raleigh to tag out Nicky Lopez on what seemed at first to be a no-doubt run scoring wild pitch, about Wyatt Langford being tagged out at home two innings later on an inning-ending wild pitch, about the tying and go-ahead runs being on base in the ninth, only to be stranded.
• It makes me sad.
• I want to make myself set that aside, and appreciate instead the greatness of Jacob deGrom, appreciate what he did in this game, say that his excellence stands apart and can be enjoyed and embraced without regard to the final outcome of the game. That would be the rational thing to do.
• But sports fandom, and sports feelings, aren’t rational, are they?
• Jacob deGrom’s fastball topped out at 99.6 mph, averaging 98.3 mph. Jakob Junis reached 94.0 mph with his fastball. Robert Garcia’s fastball maxed out at 95.0 mph. Robby Ahlstrom touched 95.2 mph with his fastball.
• Ezequiel Duran had a 108.2 mph ground out. Joc Pederson had a 102.3 mph home run. Danny Jansen had a 101.6 mph single.
• Baseball continues, whether we want it to or not. On to Arizona.

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The New York Mets and New York Yankees enter play in strong form, both cracking the Top-5 in wins over the last 30 games.

I trust Nolan McLean more than Carlos Rodon, making the underdog an appealing target with my Mets vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for the Subway Series opener.

Who will win Mets vs Yankees today: New York Mets (46%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The New York Mets have had a solid process against southpaws the past 30 days, ranking 10th in xSLG and 16th in xBA.

They should have an easier time turning those outputs into results against Carlos Rodon. His xERA is more than two runs higher than his ERA over the last month, and he’s given up a ton of barrels (10.9%) and hard contact (45.7%).

Nolan McLean has done an exceptional job neutralizing power, allowing zero homers and two barrels during that span.

He’ll give the Mets a real chance of pulling off the upset.

Play to 49%.

COVERS INTEL:Nolan McLean's 86th percentile ranking in xSLG will make it difficult on a power-dependent Yankees offense to produce.

Mets vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (55%)

The Mets have shown signs of improvement under the hood, but the reality is their offense hasn’t produced much vs. lefties.

They sit 27th in BA, 26th in OBP, and 22nd in OPS. Rodon is poised to take a step back, but the Mets are an unlikely candidate to put forth a true ceiling performance against him.

McLean has posted an impressive 2.39 ERA and 2.70 xERA on the road this season, and given up next to no power of late. He’ll make it tough on a New York Yankees offense that relies heavily on the long ball.

Back the Under to 56%.

Mets vs Yankees home run prediction: Carson Benge (13%)

Rodon leans heavily on the fastball-slider combination, and that’s what Carson Benge hits best against lefties.

He owns a .398 wOBA, .254 ISO, and 18.2% barrel rate when facing fastballs or sliders thrown by southpaws this season. All of his home runs vs. lefties have come against those two pitches.

Benge has only had two at-bats against Rodon in his career but did take him for extra bases in one of them.

Don’t be surprised if he leaves the park this time around.

Mets vs Yankees weather

Neutral impacts are expected for hitters with temperatures hovering in the high 70s and winds blowing left to right.

Mets vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Mets 45% | Yankees 56%
• Run line: Mets +1.5 (63%) | Yankees -1.5 (38%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (48%) | Under 8.5 (53%)

Mets vs Yankees trend

New York has hit the moneyline in 16 of the last 25 away games (+9.55 units, 37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Yankees.

How to watch Mets vs Yankees and game info

Mets vs Yankees latest injuries

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Two teams in the thick of the Wild Card race in their respective conferences open a crucial 3-game set Friday, when the Texas Rangers visit the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Prediction markets favor the home team, giving the D-Backs a 54% probability.

With Arizona playing better ball – winning four of its last five – my Rangers vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks will back the home team on Friday, September 11.

Who will win Rangers vs Diamondbacks today: Diamondbacks ML (55%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are a half-game behind San Diego for the NL's final Wild Card, winning their last two series behind a staff posting a 2.73 ERA over the past week.

The Texas Rangers (2.0 games behind Cleveland in the AL Wild Card) have lost four of six, scoring three or fewer runs in three losses, and rank seventh worst in MLB at 4.15 runs per game on the road.

The Rangers have also dropped three of four in Arizona, averaging just 3.0 runs per game.

With Arizona pitching well and Texas struggling to score, I'd back the Diamondbacks moneyline up to a 60% probability.

COVERS INTEL: Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte is on a nice run, picking up at least a hit in eight straight games and 12 of his last 14. During that time, Marte has added nine runs scored and eight runs batted in.

Rangers vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (56%)

We've already discussed Texas' pop-gun offense on the road, where they've dropped six of nine, scoring three runs or less in five of those losses.

Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly has struggled this year with a 5.06 ERA, but he's kept the opposition to three runs or fewer in each of his last three starts.

Arizona isn't exactly lighting it up at home, ranking middle of the pack at 4.43 runs per game.

While Kumar Rocker has struggled to a 5-11 record and a 4.61 ERA, Arizona is hitting just .176 against him – though in a very small sample size.

The Diamondbacks have also been an Under magnet of late, going Under the total in seven straight games.

Play this to 50%. 

Rangers vs Diamondbacks home run prediction: Joc Pederson (23%)

Rangers DH Joc Pederson has traditionally hit Kelly hard, though he's yet to homer off him in 28 career at-bats.

Pederson, who leads the Rangers in homers with 26, is hitting .286 against Kelly, picking up two doubles and two triples in his eight hits.

Rangers vs Diamondbacks weather

It will be a warm and humid night, with slight winds blowing out to center field. 

Rangers vs Diamondbacks odds

• Moneyline: Rangers 46% | Diamondbacks 55%
• Run line: Rangers +1.5 (34%) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (38%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (56%) | Under 8.5 (46%)

Rangers vs Diamondbacks trend

Arizona has the third-best moneyline record in baseball, at 38-22-0. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Diamondbacks.

How to watch Rangers vs Diamondbacks and game info

Rangers vs Diamondbacks latest injuries

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Leave it to the Orioles. With just fifteen games left in this season, and the postseason most probably out of reach, this team has come up with one new, creative way to make headlines: on September 10, word came down that Matt Blood, vice president of player and staff development (and one of Mike Elias’s longest-tenured and most trusted lieutenants), was out. The Sun’s headline called it a “mutual” parting. MASN reported that Blood was at the ballpark for Wednesday’s homestand, and now today, he’s gone.

So what happened? Nothing is on the record just yet. But there are several possible explanations (plus other likely ones I haven’t thought of).

Recall that Matt Blood was one of Elias’s first hires back in September 2019. Seven years a scout with St. Louis, Blood brought in to run the minor leagues from the ground up. He was promoted in October 2023 to vice president of player development and domestic scouting, and again in November 2025 — less than a year ago — to vice president of player and staff development, a title that explicitly expanded his job to include supporting new manager Craig Albernaz and overseeing major-league staff development, not just the farm system. That is a potentially relevant detail: as recently as last winter, Blood was getting promoted, an expression of trust in his judgment, not a demotion. So, something may have changed in ten months.

Was the front office unhappy with the farm system? This doesn’t seem to hold water. Yes, Baltimore’s system tumbled from No. 1 for three straight years (2022–24) to 14th by last season. But arguably that’s the life cycle of a loaded system finally cashing in on its prospects—Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers, Joey Ortiz, Caden Bodine, Slater de Brun, and others shipped out in trades—not to mention guys like Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, Coby Mayo, and Cade Povich all aging out of prospect eligibility.

Besides, not much has happened in the span of this season to give a reason to think Blood lost favor for that—if anything, the farm system has gotten healthier at the last two trade deadlines, with last year’s deadline bringing new faces like Boston Bateman or the power-hitting Victor Figueroa, and this year’s Rutschman trade bringing in prospects like Anthony Eyanson, who immediately became Baltimore’s new No. 1 prospect, and Enddy Azocar. A thin farm system just isn’t the smoking gun.

Was the front office unhappy with player development, full stop? This could have some merit. Blood’s November 2025 promotion tied his name directly to the major-league product for the first time—and in the last two seasons, that product has looked rather suspect.

Currently Baltimore sits 71-76, 16.5 games back of the first-place Rays, looking likely to miss the playoffs for the second year in a row. It’s not just bad luck; all season we’ve been complaining of recurring lapses on the bases and in the field, plus the fact that plenty of former top prospects aren’t hitting (Gunnar and Colton Cowser come to mind), and that Elias’s administration has yet to develop a homegrown starter other than Brandon Young. If ownership was looking for someone to answer for any of that, it could have been Blood.

Could the split be about Blood himself—friction with the new staff, or wanting a different job than the one he got? I can’t verify this hunch either way, and neither has anyone else writing about it so far. The “mutual” framing in the Sun’s headline could cover everything from an amicable split to a forced-out executive being handed a soft landing.

Was this just fallout from a miserable, dissent-filled season? The organizational mood certainly supports it. This was the summer the Orioles looked at a roster sitting 2½ games from a Wild Card spot and sold anyway: Adley Rutschman to Boston, Dean Kremer to Minnesota, Taylor Ward to Seattle, Tyler Wells to Tampa Bay. Elias himself called the moves ones that “require some short-term heartache,” and said he wished “some of these seasons hadn’t gone the way that they had.” National graders were harsher: CBS Sports handed the deadline a C and suggested Elias’s own job security was now in question. The sell-off felt like an admission of sorts that Plan A had failed, and that seemed an indictment of the Orioles leadership.

None of this tells us definitively why Matt Blood is gone. But it tells us the Orioles may have a real morale problem in the back of the house. In sum, the team enters the 2026–27 offseason with a GM under pressure for the first time in his tenure, a roster that can’t crack the playoffs ceiling, and a player-development pipeline about to be led by someone other than the person who ran it for seven years. Whatever is going on in the Orioles organization, we’ll probably find out the same way we found out about this—quietly, unofficially, and only once someone else is already gone.

Today is a big day for me. Well, not for me but in my orbit. It’s the first time in seven and a half years that both of my spawn are at some semblance of school. It means that I can sit and write this post without someone trying to crawl over me. It’s a feeling akin to not knowing what to do with your hands when someone is taking a photo of you, but more relaxing. Anyway…

Today is also a big day for the Braves. Kinda. After splitting four games in Philadelphia last weekend such that a four-game lead stayed a four-game lead… albeit with four games off the dwindling calendar and the tiebreaker secured (which is kind of like a one-game lead in and of itself), the Braves now take on those same Phillies at home in a three-game set. Even if they get swept, they’ll retain a one-game (but kinda two-game) lead. If they win a game, it’s a three-game (but kinda four-game) lead. If they win or sweep the series, well, that’ll be even more metaphorical weight off our shoulders.

On the flip side, the current playoff format renders the three and four seeds pretty similar, in that both host a three-game series at home. Sure, you’d probably play the Diamondbacks or Padres rather than the Cubs, but in three games, the difference between those teams (and really any teams in MLB) isn’t very large in terms of what you should expect as far as advancement likelihood. So even if the Braves do somehow collapse out of the division lead, it’s functionally not very different, just kind of annoying.

Both the Braves and the Phillies are 4-5 so far in September. The Braves are once again June-ing, albeit in a different way, with the league’s worst offensive and position player performance by both outputs and inputs over these nine September games. But, the Phillies aren’t really much better, as they’re bottom ten in both inputs and outputs, and fourth-worst once you add defense into the mix in terms of value. The pitching is one place these teams are differentiated — the Phillies are sixth in fWAR in September, while the Braves are 23rd. (Phillies are fourth by xFIP-, Braves are 16th.) But, all of that just gets to the point where, again — the Braves keep winning mucho games on and above their production. If they keep doing that — and they haven’t stopped yet — they’ll probably coast to the division title, though it won’t look pretty.

One thing that might make you feel better is that the Braves lined up Chris Sale and Tyler Mahle for this series, while the Phillies had to use Cristopher Sanchez and Zack Wheeler in their prior series. The Braves will still have to contend with Jesus Luzardo, who dominated on Monday, and I hope they’re cooking up a completely different approach against him than anything they’ve tried while he’s been in his Phillies uniform.

Me, I’m hoping they actually turn around the offense in a way they can build on going forward, but that’s unlikely to happen considering they’ve spent the last three-ish months wandering in the proverbial wilderness of offensive strategies, and their most recent win came as a result of bleeders through the infield while they got outhomered.

But, all that said, how are you feeling about this series?

Earlier this week, ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote about the possibility of MLB expansion, noting that there are already a few cities in the lead to possibly receive new franchises. Those cities are Salt Lake City, Nashville, Raleigh, Portland, Orlando, and Montreal. 

Of course, the impending fight over a new collective bargaining agreement will be an obstacle to expansion, but it’s something that both the owners and players likely align on. More teams means more revenue for the league and more job opportunities for players. The rest of the CBA will be contentious, but this plank feels like something that could be agreed upon quickly. 

Passan notes that commissioner Rob Manfred has stated that he wants two new expansion teams, one on the East Coast and one on the West Coast, before his planned retirement in January of 2029. That means the process would likely begin in earnest as soon as a new CBA is ratified. 

Each of the six cities listed above have their own unique case for why they should receive a team, but Nashville is one that should particularly be of interest in regard to the Phillies. If you remember, Dave Dombrowski was a large part of an effort to begin building a baseball infrastructure in Nashville before he was hired to be the Phillies president of baseball operations. It’s likely that Dombrowski will receive a new contract with the Phillies soon, as his current one expires following 2027. However, one cannot be sure that he won’t feel the pull of building something completely new again if Nashville does indeed win the expansion sweepstakes. 

In any case, it certainly appears as though we will see two new MLB teams in our near future. So, where do you think the possible expansion teams will be?

The Mets open a three-game Subway Series against the Yankees in the Bronx on Friday night at 7:05 on PIX11.

Mets Notes

• To honor the 25th anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks, the Mets and Yankees will wear first responder caps with team logos during batting practice and in the game
• A.J. Ewing is hitting .424/.474/.606 with a homer and three doubles in 38 plate appearances over his last nine games
• Nolan McLean has a 1.87 ERA in 72.1 innings over his last 12 starts

Today's Lineups

Meet the Mets

Tyler Kepner wrote about how the Mets have kept their 9/11 promise 25 years later.

Mike Lupica discussed how the lifeline the Mets and Yankees threw New York City after 9/11 is a powerful, indelible memory.

Matt Monagan shared the story of a Mets shirt flying from a 9/11 memorial in Ireland.

Will Sammon spoke with those who shared the booth with Howie Rose to find out what they learned from the radio legend.

Jon Heyman explained why the Mets’ managerial search could hinge on the Phillies’ World Series chances, as Don Mattingly could be a person to watch.

Jonathan Santucci turned in his best start at the Triple-A level to reclaim a share of the Minors K lead.

The Mets released Joe Jacques.

“When America Took the Field”, which was produced by MLB Network and former Met Todd Zeile, debuted last night on MLB Network. The two-hour documentary is also streaming on MLB.tv and MLB+.

Around the National League East

The Braves scored three in the eighth and held on to beat the Rays 3-1, which helped them cushion their lead in the NL East race.

The Phillies fell 2-1 to the Astros, as their chase habits led to their untimely series loss to Houston.

Around Major League Baseball

Major League Baseball will mark the 25th anniversary of September 11th with tributes and services.

Jeff Passan provided some early MLB free agency intel. Among the tidbits in his article, he thinks Bo Bichette will opt out, but thinks it’s a coin flip.

The Dodgers have placed Shohei Ohtani on the injured list to rest his left knee and right biceps injuries. To take his place, Los Angeles is calling up top prospect Josue De Paula.

The Yankees are placing Jazz Chisholm on the IL and calling up Anthony Volpe.

Mark Feinsand looked at 11 intriguing trade candidate for the offseason.

Dennis Lin analyzed how Fernando Tatis Jr. found his swing, which could prove to be the difference for the Padres come October.

The Cubs have the best hitting and best defense in baseball, but Mike Petriello wonders if it’s enough to overcome their pitching, which is their biggest weakness.

Brandon Sproat was sent back down to Triple-A after he allowed four runs in the ninth inning against the Cubs.

Salvador Perez is going “year by year” with his meajor league career.

Jacob deGrom turned in a vintage performance, striking out 12 over six one-hit innings, but the Mariners came back to beat the Rangers 4-3.

The Yankees put up a six-spot in the seventh to defeat the Rockies 10-3 and complete a sweep. Volpe, who was in the Yankees’ lineup when he was unsure if he would ever make it back, had a grand return.

The Pirates blanked the White Sox 2-0. After getting punched in the mouth by Pittsburgh in the form of a three-game sweep, the White Sox, who have seen their AL Central lead shrink to 1.5 games over the surging Guardians, are prepared to fight back.

This Date in Mets History

John Olerud hit for the cycle on this date in 1997.

Good teams win the games they should win, and the Yankees certainly looked the part early this week. In a three-game set against the lowly Rockies, New York swept ‘em winning by multiple runs in all three contests. Solid ball over the last month has allowed the Yankees to stay within striking distance in the East, and maintain a healthy lead in the American League’s crowded wild card race.

After their set with the last-place squad in the NL West, they’ll continue a gettable stretch by hosting the fourth-place team in the East, the Mets. While the Mets have been playing better baseball of late, the Bombers will have every chance to take a couple of games in the Subway Series.

Friday: Carlos Rodónvs. Nolan McLean (7:05 p.m. EST)

The series opens with the Yankees sending Carlos Rodón to the bump, set to make his 14th start of the 2026 season. After a bumpy patch through the middle of June, the lefty has been excellent since returning on August 18th, a stretch that has seen him pitch to the tune of a 2.55 ERA in four starts, while striking out 18 batters in 17.2 innings. On the whole, the 33-year-old has put together a very solid fourth season in pinstripes when healthy, and will undoubtedly be a significant part of his team’s October run. He’ll look to continue his solid post-injury run on Friday.

He’ll square off with the Mets’ excellent rookie Nolan McLean. After an impressive eight-start debut in 2025, the righty has backed it up with a 3.06 ERA in over 160 innings this season. Relying mostly on his sinker and a pair of breaking balls to get the job done, the righty has been dominant over his last five outings, allowing just four earned runs in 31 stellar innings of work. He has also completed at least six innings in 13 of his last 14 outings, so the Mets will likely be leaning heavily on their talented young starter in this one.

Saturday: Gerrit Cole vs. Zac Thornton (1:35 p.m. EST)

Saturday will see Gerrit Cole taking the mound, hoping to bounce back from what has been a rough few starts. He still is posting a respectable season, despite missed time to start the year, with a 3.70 FIP in 11 innings. But, over his last three outings, the six-time All-Star has surrendered 10 earned runs in 18.1 innings. His most recent was the worst of the bunch, a seven-inning start in which he gave up four solo homers to the Padres. The Cole Train will look to get back on the rails in the second game of the series.

The Mets are slated to start a second consecutive rookie this weekend, with lefty Zac Thornton getting the nod on Saturday. He made his debut on May 20th this season, and has been a solid addition to the rotation much of the way through. His worst outing, however, was his latest, when he gave up six earned runs to the Giants, including four long balls. Both starters on Saturday will be trying to shake the homer bug.

Sunday: Cam Schlittler vs. Christian Scott(1:35 p.m. EST)

The Subway Series will conclude with Cy Young favorite Cam Schlittler on the mound. As if the righty needed much to bolster his case, he’s allowed one run or less in each of his last six starts, and with another good outing on Saturday, could drop his ERA below 2.00 for the season. Schlittler has been a treat to watch in 2026, and he’ll be in prime position to keep the good times rolling to close out the season. He most recently struck out ten in seven strong innings against the Rockies.

Right-hander Christian Scott will close things out for the Mets on Sunday. In his most substantial big league season to date, he’s been good, striking out nearly 28 percent of opposing batters across 21 starts for the Metropolitans. In his most recent outing, against the Giants, Scott failed to complete five innings, allowing a pair of earned runs to score, though he did strike out seven in the start. With Judge back and the Yankees coming off of a sweep Scott and the entire Mets staff could very well have their hands full in the weekend series.

Atlanta Braves outfielder Lane Thomas was scratched from Thursday’s lineup and is headed to the injured list. Manager Walt Weiss called it an intercostal strain and noted that Thomas could be out for the remainder of the season. 

Thomas, who has averaged .171 for Atlanta in 21 games, makes the second Brave to hit the injured list this week. Thomas’ absence could lead to some playing time for Brewer Hicklen as the Braves navigate the final stretch of the regular season.

More Braves News:

The Braves avoided a sweep from the Tampa Bay Rays after Thursday afternoon’s 3-1 win.

Brett Sears recorded a 10-strikeout night for the Gwinnett Stripers on Wednesday. More in the minor league recap. 

The Braves reportedly discussed going after Jacob deGrom in exchange for Spencer Strider.

MLB News:

The Pittsburgh Pirates placed right-hander Braxton Ashcraft on the 15-day injured list due to arm discomfort. The move is retroactive to September 7.

Cleveland Guardians righty Andrew Walters underwent an internal brace procedure and may miss the entire 2027 season.

The New York Yankees have officially placed Jazz Chisholm Jr. on the injured list with a thumb sprain. The move is retroactive to September 9.

From the Feed:

How many games do you think the Braves will win over the Phillies in their final clash of the regular season?

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The first-place Atlanta Braves are priced as a massive 63% favorite tonight against their NL East rivals, the Philadelphia Phillies, in the series opener at Truist Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. 

Chris Sale has already carved up Philly several times this season, so my Phillies vs. Braves predictions back the hosts to take the first game of this three-game set. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, Sep. 11. 

Who will win Phillies vs Braves today: Braves (64%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Aaron Nola has been solid lately, posting a 3.10 FIP over the last month, but his road profile is more vulnerable with a 4.60 FIP this season.

The Atlanta Braves also have plenty of familiarity, hitting .285 across 410 at-bats against him, and tagged him for six earned runs earlier this year.

Chris Sale gives the Braves the stronger starting edge. He owns a 2.36 FIP at home and a 2.77 xERA over his previous four outings with minimal home-run damage.

Sale also has a 1.42 ERA against the Philadelphia Phillies in 2026 across three starts and has held current Phillies hitters to a .221 average over 154 career at-bats.

Take Atlanta. Play up to 65%, but look to the run line if it moves higher.

COVERS INTEL: Sale has allowed just 0.33 BB/9 over the last month. That's compared to his season average of 1.74 BB/9. The left-hander is consistently pounding the strike zone. 

Phillies vs Braves Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (48%)

I expect both starters to hold their own, but the bullpen profiles are hard to ignore.

While the Phillies and Braves aren’t exactly flourishing at the plate — Atlanta’s wRC+ sits at 45 over the last week, while Philadelphia’s is at 82 — both bullpens are struggling.

The Braves’ bullpen has a 5.23 FIP over its last 24 frames with 2.22 HR/9 allowed. Philadelphia’s pen also owns an FIP above five over the last seven days with significant home-run damage.

It’s not a slam-dunk angle because of the offensive form of these two teams, but the late-game pitching vulnerabilities are difficult to overlook.

Play this pick up to 50%.

Phillies vs Braves home run prediction: Kyle Schwarber (24%)

Sale may be dominant, but Kyle Schwarber has four homers in his last seven games, and the slugger also has two career home runs off the left-hander.

Atlanta’s bullpen has been vulnerable lately as well, giving Schwarber another path once Sale exits.

Schwarber’s ISO sits at .444 over the last week, supported by a 50% hard-hit rate and 20% barrel rate. He may not be hitting for average right now, but the quality of contact remains elite.

Play this pick up to 25%.

Phillies vs Braves weather

Weather could be a factor tonight at Truist Park, with warm, humid conditions and possible thunderstorms around first pitch. Rain chances sit around 50% early on, before gradually easing later in the evening, so there is some delay risk. Winds look fairly light, limiting any major carry impact.

Phillies vs Braves odds

• Moneyline: Phillies 38% | Braves 63%
• Run line: Phillies +1.5 (57%) | Braves -1.5 (44%)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (49%) | Under 7.5 (52%)

Phillies vs Braves trend

The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 50 away games (+10.40 Units / 19% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Braves.

How to watch Phillies vs Braves and game info

Phillies vs Braves latest injuries

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The Rays have to figure it out against left-handed pitching or with the bases loaded, ideally both, or it will be another quick exit in October.

With how well Tampa Bay right-hander Nick Martinez threw today, going 6.1 IP and only allowing two hits and no runs, the offense appeared to have had too much Waffle House before the matinee in Atlanta.

In the top of the first, the Rays offense had their chance at an All-Star Special early on Braves lefty Martin Perez. 

Bases loaded, one out, and Chandler Simpson grounds out into a rare 3-2-3 double play to end the inning.

From the bottom of the first through the bottom of the fifth, both the Rays and Braves traded off frames of five batters or less with nothing to show for it. Scoreless and steamy on an 83-degree, partly cloudy day in Cobb County, we fast forward to the eighth.

Good old-fashioned BABIP luck came to bite Kevin Kelly, as an Ozzie Albies triple and an Austin Riley backside single gave the Braves a 1-0 lead, and who other than Ha-Seong Kim to provide the insurance with a two-run RBI single.

Tampa Bay would threaten in the ninth with a Victor Mesa Jr. solo shot off Raisel Iglesias followed by a Chandler Simpson walk, but it went all for naught as the Rays drop the finale from Truist Park.

Tampa bay returns home to face the AL West-leading Astros with a magic number of 1 to clinch a playoff spot.