The 2026 MLB Draft is over. The Texas Rangers have made their selections and started signing players. Deals for their top few picks should be announced in the next few days, with the deadline for signing most drafted players being ten days from now, at 4 p.m. on Monday, July 27, 2026.
Its a far cry from the days of old, when first round picks didn’t sign until weeks — sometimes months — after they were drafted, when there were staring matches, games of chickens, where the deadline was when classes started for the school a drafting player would be attending in the fall if he didn’t sign (assuming that the player in question opted to set foot on campus, rather than not going to school and continuing negotiations into the fall and winter). The assumption is that, barring something extraordinary, a team is going to sign the players it picks in the first ten rounds, with the only real question being which players in rounds 11-20 will be inked to deals before the window for negotiations close.
The Rangers’ 2026 draft class is an unusual one, noted by many of the commentariat as being a boom-or-bust type draft, being top heavy, with their first three picks — who will likely consume the vast majority of the team’s draft bonus pool — being of the high-risk, high-reward variety. After years of swinging for the fences in the draft, the Rangers, in 2019, began orienting more towards lower-risk, safer college picks, with a particular focus on landing batters with a track record of success and good contact skills.
In 2025, the Rangers went in a somewhat different direction in the draft, using their first round pick on prep infielder Gavin Fien — the first high schooler they had picked in the first round since Cole Winn in 2018 — and splitting their first six picks, and the bulk of their draft pool, between three prep infielders* and three injured college pitchers. They didn’t take a college hitter until the seventh round, when they popped Penn State outfielder Paxton Kling — and Kling fit more in the toolsy, athletic category than the polished, advanced skills category.
* Or, if you prefer, two prep infielders and Josh Owens, a prep infielder who also pitches, and who was announced, and being used this season, as a two way player.
This past weekend, the Rangers seemingly came full circle, using their first three selections on high school players for the first time since 2018, including high-velocity lefty pitchers with two of their first three picks. As the industry as a whole has shifted more and more towards college players — nine of the first 11 picks in 2026 were from four year schools — and with a particular focus on college hitters with strong contact ability, the Rangers have put their eggs in a three player basket of guys who were attending high school two months ago.
I don’t know, though, if this is inherently a philosophical shift so much as the team seeing opportunities in regards to players that were on the board when they picked that didn’t necessarily fit their usual mode. The reports heading into draft day had the Rangers’ connected with a number of players prior to the draft, with various mock drafts having the Rangers going both position player and pitcher, both prep and college, with their top pick.
Gio Rojas, taken by the Rangers at #16, was the first high school pitcher selected in the draft, and one of only two high school pitchers taken in the “true” first round, versus the competitive balance pick round after the first round. He’s someone who was seen at one point as likely being off the board before the Rangers picked, a tall, athletic lefty who touches 98 and is expected to be able to hit triple digits when he fills out, a high spin guy who also has a quality slider and feel for a changeup. That profile even a few years ago would have him a lock to go in the top 10.
The flameout rate for high school pitchers has resulted in them dropping on draft boards in recent years, and with good reason. One can go back and look at the failure rate for high school pitchers taken high in the draft and see how often they don’t make it.
But while you are going to adjust where you put high school pitchers on your draft board as a result of that, you aren’t going to remove them from your board altogether. You aren’t going to want to take a high school pitcher first overall, sure…and a high school pitcher hasn’t gone first since Brady Aiken infamously was picked #1 in 2014 by the Houston Astros, who then didn’t sign him due to medical concerns. The only other high school pitchers taken first overall in the history of the draft are Brien Taylor, who went first overall in 1991 to the Yankees and never made the majors, and David Clyde, whose story you are all familiar with.
At some point, though, you’re going to reach a point in the draft where the risk of a high school pitcher is outweighed by the potential value that a particular high school pitcher offers at that point. For the Texas Rangers, this year, that point was the 16th pick the draft, with Gio Rojas.
Rojas, though, wasn’t necessarily the only prep pitcher the Rangers viewed as worthy of snagging with the 16th overall pick. They also were linked with Brody Bumila, a huge lefty out of Massachusetts who throws 100 with great extension, but who has a lot of work to do with his secondaries. The notion of taking Bumila at #16 went out the window when the pre-draft medicals showed that Bumila — who underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow 14 months ago — had a damaged UCL, likely necessitating another surgery.
The injury knocked Bumila out of the first round, and saw him drop all the way to the third round…where the Rangers grabbed him, reportedly with an agreement to pay him first round money. Going way over slot to get a first round talent in the later rounds isn’t unusual. Doing it for a high schooler who may not be ready to step on a mound until the end of 2027 because of a second elbow surgery is, however. Its the organization betting, not just on Bumila’s upside, but on his, and the team’s medical staff, being able to get him back to full strength.
If Bumila does, he’s a steal in the third round. If he doesn’t, well, you’ll be hearing comparisons to Michael Matuella.
In between Rojas and Bumila, the Rangers went prep hitter with Connor Comeau. Like last year’s first rounder, Gavin Fien, Comeau is a high school shortstop with an advanced hit tool who will almost certainly have to move off of shortstop. Unlike Fien, Comeau is one of the youngest players in his draft class, not turning 18 until August, and is a tall, gangly fellow who lacks speed and athleticism, but whose swing, approach and build allows him to be projected as a potential impact hitter as he fills out.
None of the Rangers’ top three picks are cheap signs. Texas isn’t going underslot with them to sign guys who slid to the later rounds. The team said after the draft that Bumila unexpectedly reaching them in the third round scrambled their draft board, as signing him would necessitate them devoting most of their excess bonus pool money to him.
And so in the fourth round, took a junior reliever out of Ole Miss in Hudson Calhoun, who may be below slot, and almost certainly won’t be above slot. In the fifth, they took Michael Anderson out of Penn State, who has already signed for $172,500, significantly below slot. The team’s sixth, seventh, ninth and tenth rounders have all signed for nominal $2500 bonuses, providing savings that will go to Bumila. Their eighth rounder, Georgia shortstop Kolby Branch, is a senior, and a good enough prospect he will likely not sign for $2500, but who will not cost a lot to lock up.
We don’t know yet how much the guys taken in the top 10 rounds will cost to sign, how much pool money will be left over to apply to potential above-$150,000 bonuses for players taken after round 10. There are interesting players the Rangers picked in that range, guys who have the potential to be legitimate prospects as they develop. We will have a fuller picture of the entire draft class in ten days.
But the big bets were in the first three rounds, when the Rangers were opportunistic in grabbing high risk, high reward guys who fell in their laps.