With the conclusion of Kevin Gausman’s 5-year, $110 million contract that he signed with the Toronto Blue Jays after the Giants left him on read following the 2021 season, we can now see if the gamble to replace him in the aggregate as the team’s co-ace or, simply, the #2 starter to pair with Logan Webb, worked out as well as ownership expected it to after Farhan Zaidi no doubt offered his recommendation.

It’s important to keep in mind that after the Barry Zito, Jeff Samardzija, and Johnny Cueto deals ($346 million for 21.7 fWAR across 2,407 IP) and the Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain extensions ($153 million for 1 fWAR across 781 IP), the team’s ownership group decided that long-term pitching contracts weren’t good investments anymore and effectively banned them.

Sure, the Giants did wind up signing Logan Webb to a 5-year, $90 million extension back in 2023, but that caught a pitcher just as he was entering his prime rather than pay a premium to get (mostly) the downside of a guy’s career. I’ve already written about how Webb might already be at that point, but the Giants only have two years left on that deal. Kevin Gausman’s free agency started with a big red flag: year 1 of the deal would be his age-31 season. Instead, the team opted to go with short-term solutions while they waited for the farm system to produce the next crop of Logan Webbs or Matt Cains. Did the gambit pay off?

I’ve already checked in on the strategy a few times over the years, including a Giants-Blue Jays Series Preview from July, but that was before the deadline. That post included this graphic, which covered nearly the whole topic —

But now, with the season having concluded and Gausman’s Cubs team eliminated from the postseason, we can now look back and see how the entire strategy played out. AND, also, that this graphic was missing a VERY important pitcher, who I’ll get to in a moment.

Gausman wound up making all of his starts in his 5-year deal, allaying the injury concerns. From 2022-26, he threw 911.1 innings in 157 starts, went 57-53 with a 3.68 ERA (3.93 FIP), 9.65 K/9, 2.33 BB/9, and 1.00 HR/9.

The #2 starter trio of Carlos Rodon (2022), Alex Cobb (2022-2023), Robbie Ray (2024-2026), and Blake Snell (2024) threw 918.2 innings in 167 starts, went 57-42 with a 3.69 ERA (3.31 FIP), 9.8 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 0.9 HR/9. Here’s that graphic, refreshed:

Well, by every measure, Gausman won the move. Even in in the traditional counting stats. The Giants saved themselves $1.9 million and lost 6.1 wins above replacement over the last 5 years. Those 5 theoretical wins wouldn’t have amounted to very much in the grand scheme of things — the Giants would still be 391-419 since the start of the 2022 season — but on a weekly or monthly level, Gausman pitching consistently might’ve had a positive knock-on effect with the rotation and then bullpen.

Or, he could’ve gotten injured.

And, of course, the other way the Giants might have eked out a win with this strategy is in the returns they got for Cobb (who was on the IL at the time and hadn’t pitched an inning for the team in 2024) or Ray (to division rival San Diego). But they held on to Rodon and Snell at those respective deadlines. Of course, Snell then threw a no-hitter in his first start after the deadline, but the Giants never seemed all that interested in keeping him at all costs. And the return for Gausman (I know I misspelled Tyl Southisene’s name, but I’m not editing that image again) seems like it could be solid for Toronto as much as the Giants’ returns could be; though, they obviously win by that comparison based on volume alone or simply because they got Jacob Bresnahan.

Now, you could argue that there was a tweak in the strategy starting in 2024, when the team knew Alex Cobb wouldn’t be healthy enough to start the season, and possibly miss a decent chunk of the year. So, they hedged a bit by trading for Robbie Ray (and alleviating some of the dead money owed to Mitch Haniger) and setting themselves up for the next couple of years. They also stayed engaged with Blake Snell until they landed him (perhaps to his and the team’s detriment). So, at some point, the team recognized that money had to be spent on the rotation. But, wow, nearly $34 million for 3 extra wins above replacement across 5 seasons.

To be fair, although the Giants let their fear of age and injury prevent them from committing five years to Kevin Gausman but instead give out shorter terms to four pitchers with age and injury decline in their profiles, they did aim very high and succeeded in bringing in two Cy Young winners and another who was both not 30 and had garnered Cy Young votes the previous year (Rodon). So, it’s not like they pivoted from Kevin Gausman to Adrian Houser and Tyler Mahle.

And you might quibble that Cobb doesn’t belong in this conversation at all. That he doesn’t amount to a co-ace or even a #2 starter. I don’t think that’s true, though. The reporting at the time suggested this was exactly the case. The Giants already knew they had a great one in Logan Webb, and so pairing him with a player of a similar profile helped him get better. So, Cobb belongs in the conversation. And he pitched well in the two seasons he managed to give them (he was an All-Star in 2023).

By the way, Cobb’s All-Star appearance wasn’t the only one of the group’s. Robbie Ray was an All-Star for the Giants last season. Carlos Rodon was an All-Star and got Cy Young votes in his lone Giants season. Blake Snell pitched a no-hitter. No postseason appearances, though, because the Giants weren’t good enough to make it into the lowered standard of the third Wild Card.

Gausman had Cy Young votes in the first two seasons of the five-year deal and was an All-Star in 2023. He didn’t throw a no-hitter, but he did have 3 complete games including 2 shutouts. He also made 8 starts in the postseason (and one relief outing) for Toronto and Chicago, posting a 4.12 ERA in 43.2 IP.

Spending $143.9 million over 5 years to come away with no positive memories but maybe 5-7 years of Jacob Bresnahan dominating at the major league level doesn’t feel like this strategy worked. The Giants seemed to have paid more than it paid out. At the end of the day, that was the concern once it became clear this was the team’s plan, and just because it’s come to pass doesn’t mean it should be shrugged off. But it also shouldn’t be totally condemned, either.

No, not because Cobb, Ray, and Snell spent a lot of time on the IL — injuries are a terrible excuse for sustained poor performance — but because it kinda worked? The Giants basically signed these guys in a pocket of high performance and got out maybe a season too soon rather than be stuck with a long-term contract that’s hard to move… not trying to compare that to Chapman/Adames situation the team now finds itself in, but it is interesting to note.

Wow. I can’t believe I’m not going to talk about the Giants’ decision to move on from Kevin Gausman ever again (unless they bring him back in free agency this offseason). But what do you think? In the final analysis, was ditching Kevin Gausman the right move?

Good afternoon everyone, we’re back for the latest edition of the mailbag, our first since the end of the Yankees season. Remember to send in your questions for our weekly call by e-mail to pinstripealleyblog [at] gmail [dot] com.

jmack175 asks: What are the chances MLB changes the postseason format and re-seeds after the wild card round? Kinda dumb that the top two teams are playing each other after the wild card round is finished. A Tampa vs. Yankees series would be better as the final battle for the AL in a 7-game series.

I agree that the current format leaves a lot to be desired, with one of the glaring flaws being that in years such as this, when talent is so heavily concentrated in one division at the expense of the other two divisions in a particular league, you end up with the best teams all on one side of the postseason bracket, while the teams that made it in by default on the other side duke it out for a pass to the ALCS.

I’d imagine there are quite a few fans that would like to see change, and well, it seems like the league agrees. MLB’s latest proposal to the MLBPA reportedly includes a 154-game season, a seven-game division series, and allowing the higher seeds in each league to choose their opponents. Under this system, the three seed would get to choose their Wild Card round opponent, and then the number one seed would get to choose its division series opponent between the two Wild Card winners. This format isn’t at all perfect; if it was in place this year, for example, the third-seeded 81-81 Astros would’ve gotten to choose their first round opponent, and the Yankees still would’ve likely been left to play the Red Sox in the opening round. However, such a format also would have probably led the Rays to choose the White Sox as their Division Series opponent, letting the Yankees face the Guardians, and leaving the possibility of the Rays-Yankees ALCS that would’ve felt much more fitting given those were the top two teams in the AL all year.

Though I think this proposal would be a step in the right direction, I’d prefer the league go even further, and just seed the playoffs in order of record. It felt pretty silly to see the literally .500 Astros earn a higher playoff seed than a Yankees team that won 12 more games during the regular season. You could structure this in a way that still preserves some of the sanctity of the divisions themselves, by allowing the three division winners in, plus the three Wild Cards, and seeding those six teams by record. If MLB is to let 12 teams into its postseason tournament, I think this is the best way to seed it. 

Don Hood writes in:What has bothered me the most all season long is the lineup. I wrote into Pinstripe Alley several weeks ago remarking how I thought Lombard should be installed as the leadoff hitter. He gets on base, can steal a base, can cause distraction for the opposing pitcher, is fast at taking the extra base, etc. Last night, in the elimination game, Grisham, a horrible example of a leadoff hitter, went 0-5 with three K’s. Lombard, on the other hand, had two hits and a walk, on base three times. Absolutely time for change.

You’ll be hard-pressed to find anyone that agreed with Aaron Boone’s decision to move Trent Grisham to the leadoff spot in the order. I’m something of a Grisham apologist, and I’ll note that before he got hurt in June, Grisham had a .332 wOBA a robust .360 expected wOBA, but it was clear before Boone penciled his name on top of the card on Wednesday night that that version of Grisham was nowhere to be found.

But the other half of Boone’s decision in Game 3, that of moving Ben Rice into the two slot out of the leadoff spot, made sense. Without Aaron Judge, Rice is the Yankees’ best hitter, and though it’s tempting to just bat your best hitter first to guarantee the most at-bats, you need to balance that desire with actually getting your best hitter in position to do maximum damage. To wit, Rice hit two home runs in Game 2, but with no on base. That game could’ve gone completely differently if men were on when Rice went deep, and the odds of the Yankees getting runners on ahead of Rice were higher with him hitting second behind a competent hitter.

Of course, a compromised Grisham does not look like a competent hitter, so that all leads to another question: who should have batted lead off? As Don notes, George Lombard Jr. could’ve been a reasonable option. Lombard has speed, and though it was just five games, he got on base at an excellent .368 clip in the playoffs.

That said, Lombard’s overall offensive numbers this season were nothing special, and it’s a lot to ask of the rookie to slot into the leadoff slot, especially without the platoon advantage, as he was on Wednesday (though for my money, I think Lombard might be a quality choice to lead off against lefties as soon as next Opening Day). Elsewhere, the choices still aren’t clear. Luis García Jr. is an excellent hitter against righties, but he’s not a guy who gets on base, and is better served lower in the order. The likes of Anthony Volpe and Jose Caballero have speed but just not nearly enough offensive juice to warrant hitting leadoff.

I think there’s a safe choice, and then a wild card choice here. Cody Bellinger is either the Yankees’ second or third-best hitter with Judge out, and has the inverse skillset as García; Bellinger gets on base at a solid rate and has less power than Garcia. I would’ve likely penciled Bellinger in ahead of Rice on Wednesday. I do, however, want to highlight a sneaky option… Austin Wells. Though he made the baserunning blunder that may be the single moment that’s most remembered from this Yankee postseason, he put together some of the strongest at-bats of anyone in the lineup not named Rice in these playoffs. He’s also posted a .377 OBP and 143 wRC+ against righties post All-Star Break.

I’m not saying I would’ve done it, but the Yankees have experimented with Wells leading off before. He’s not the prototypical leadoff man, but since getting healthy this year, he’s been locked in against right-handed pitching. Maybe it’s something the Yankees can toy with again in 2027?

The Dodgers and Brewers meet in a best-of-seven NLCS beginning Sunday night in Milwaukee. The Brewers already won four out of seven regular games against the Dodgers this year, but in the regular season. While last year showed us the regular season and postseason are different — Los Angeles lost all six games to Milwaukee before sweeping them out of the NLCS — there are some potential takeaways from the 2026 regular season matchups.

Dodgers vs. Brewers games, 2026

• May 22: Brewers 5, Dodgers 1
• May 23: Dodgers 11, Brewers 3
• May 24: Dodgers 5, Brewers 1
• August 13: Brewers 5, Dodgers 4
• August 14: Dodgers 3, Brewers 1
• August 15: Brewers 4, Dodgers 1
• August 16: Brewers 6, Dodgers 2

Offense tough to come by

In seven total games, the Dodgers outscored the Brewers 27-25, with both teams averaging under four runs per contest. In five of the seven games, the losing team scored one or two runs.

Only two games saw one of the teams score more than five runs — on May 23 in Milwaukee, the Dodgers had five extra-base hits and broken open a one-run game with seven runs in the eighth and ninth innings combined; and August 16 in Los Angeles, the Brewers scored a pair of runs in the ninth inning to get to six in the their last regular season tussle of the year.

The Dodgers hit just .188/.291/.335 in these seven games, while the Brewers hit just .228/.313/.307.

Of the Dodgers seven home runs, three were hit by Andy Pages and two by Max Muncy. Teoscar Hernández homered once and hit .375/.444/.500 in seven games against Milwaukee. William Contreras hit two of the Brewers’ three home runs against the Dodgers, hitting .304/.360/.565 in his six games.

Milwaukee on the season stole 162 bases, fifth-most in the majors, with a 75-percent success rate, which will be something for the Dodgers to watch. But the Brewers only stole two bases in seven games against the Dodgers, and was caught three times. Notably, Milwaukee in the regular season did not face Tyler Glasnow or Blake Snell, the Dodgers’ two starting pitchers most susceptible to running.

Pitchers you will see in the NLCS

The likely starting pitchers of the first two games of the NLCS were all very effective in Dodgers-Brewers games this season.

Jacob Misiorowski struck out six and allowed one run in a win at Dodger Stadium on August 15, a game you might recall as Charley Steiner’s first full game broadcast on radio this season. Misiorowski has a 1.59 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 17 innings over three games against the Dodgers, including Game 3 of last year’s NLCS.

Tarik Skubal allowed only two runs (one earned) with seven strikeouts in six innings against the Brewers on August 16, but took a tough-luck loss.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto won both of this starts against Milwaukee, with 12 strikeouts and two runs allowed in 13 innings. Logan Henderson won both of his starts against the Dodgers, with 13 strikeouts and one run allowed in 12 innings.

Dustin May, whom you might remember as pitching the third-most regular season innings on last year’s Dodgers, started Game 3 of the NLDS for the Brewers, who acquired him at the trade deadline. On May 3 in St. Louis, May with the Cardinals allowed three runs in six innings in a loss to the Dodgers.

Roki Sasaki, now in the bullpen in October, had a 3.27 ERA in two starts against the Brewers, with more walks (seven) than strikeouts (six).

Baker’s dozen?

The Dodgers will likely add a 13th pitcher now that they are in a best-of-7 series after carrying a dozen pitchers in the best-of-5 NLDS.

Whether Justin Wrobleski makes the cut remains to be seen. In two starts against Milwaukee this regular season, Wrobleski allowed nine runs in 11 innings, including three home runs, and lost both games. Emmet Sheehan is another option should the Dodgers opt for a bulk pitcher in this round.

Four Brewers regulars — Jake Bauers (140 OPS+), Brice Turang (124 OPS+), Garrett Mitchell (112 OPS+), and Christian Yelich (91 OPS+) — all bat left-handed, as does Sal Frelick and David Hamilton. Should the Dodgers opt to carry more than three left-handed relievers, either at the expense of one of the five right-handed relievers who were active in the NLDS or adding a bulk pitcher, Jack Dreyer struck out four of his eight Brewers batters faced in the regular season in two appearances and 1 2/3 scoreless innings.

81-81 FINAL RECORD; AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST DIVISION CHAMPS

IN THE STANDINGS: The Astros finished the regular season in first place in the AL West with an 81-81 record, topping the second-place Rangers by 1.0 game. The Astros clinched their division on the final day of the regular season with a strong finishing kick, as they went 4-2 in their final six games, all on the road, to overtake the Rangers for the division title.

IN THE POSTSEASON: The Astros made their 19th postseason appearance in club history in what was the 65th year of the franchise that began in 1962. This season marked the 14th time in club history for the Astros to enter the postseason as a division winner. The Astros have won three different divisions in their history, the NL West (1980, 1986), NL Central (1997-99, 2001) and AL West (2017-19, 2021-24, 2026).

SINCE 2015: After a one-year hiatus, the Astros were back in the postseason this year for the 10th time in the last 12 seasons (2015-26). The Astros join the Dodgers and Yankees as the only teams in the Majors to qualify for the postseason in at least 10 of the last 12 years (since 2015).

POSTSEASON VETS: Since 2015, the Astros have played more postseason games (107) and earned more postseason wins (62) than any other AL club. The Astros are 62-45 in that span for a .579 winning pct. in the postseason.

THE WILD CARD ROUND: The Astros played in the Wild Card round for the fourth time in their postseason history. The Astros are now 3-4 all-time in the Wild Card round, dispatching the Yankees in the one-game playoff in 2015, sweeping the Twins in the 2020 Wild Card Series and getting swept by the Tigers in 2024 and the White Sox in 2026.

ABOUT THE WILD CARD SERIES: The Astros were swept in the Wild Card Series by the White Sox, losing Game 1 by a score 6-3, and losing Game 2, 7-3. The Astros out-homered the White Sox, 4-2, including one each by SS Jeremy Peña and 2B Jose Altuve. The Astros had several big performances out of their bullpen in the series, including impressive 3.0-inning appearances by RHP Miguel Ullola and RHP Peter Lambert.

AT THE HELM: Astros manager Joe Espada has guided the Astros to the postseason in two of his three seasons as the Astros manager since taking over before the 2024 season. Espada has posted a 256-229 regular season record in his three years as the Astros manager and ranks ninth in club history in managerial wins.

SLOW AND STEADY RECOVERY: After starting the season 20-31 after 51 games, the Astros went 61-50 (.550) in their last 110 games (starting on May 22). Their record since that date ranked fourth in the AL, trailing only playoff teams, the Red Sox (65-48), Yankees (63-47) and Rays (65-49).

LEAD PROTECTORS: The Astros went 70-0 when leading after 8.0 innings on the season. They were one of just four clubs that did not lose a game when leading after 8.0 innings, along with the Rays (85-0), Diamondbacks (72-0), and Rangers (70-0).

ROAD WARRIORS: The Astros posted a 42-39 record on the road, which was three games better than their home record (39-42), giving the Astros their sixth straight season with a winning road record. Houston started the season 1-9 on their first road trip before rebounding for a 41-30 (.577) road record after April 14.

MEASURING UP: The Astros went 29-26 (.527) against teams that finished with a winning record, with that winning percentage ranking fourth in the Majors, trailing only the Rays (40-28) in the AL. The Astros had winning records against five eventual playoff teams, the Cubs (3-0), Red Sox (5-1), White Sox (5-2), Guardians (4-2) and Phillies (2-1).

SILVER BOOT SECURED: The Astros finished their season series with a 9-4 record against the Rangers, securing them the 2026 Silver Boot. The Astros have now won the Silver Boot in 10 consecutive seasons (every year since 2017), during which the Astros have gone 102-55 vs. the Rangers.

GOIN’ DEEP: The Astros hit 226 regular season homers as a team this year, which were the most in the Majors. The last time the Astros led the Majors in home runs was in 2000, when they hit 249 homers. The 2026 Astros also led the AL in SLG (.417) and OPS (.732).

20-HR CLUB: The Astros had five players reach 20 home runs this season: DH Yordan Alvarez (42), 1B Christian Walker (29), 3B Isaac Paredes (25), SS Jeremy Peña (22) and RF Cam Smith (21). They were one of just three teams in the Majors to do so, along with the Braves (5) and Cubs (5).

TWO-OUT MAGIC: The Astros led the American League in two-out runs with 324 on the season, trailing only the Cubs (333) in the Majors. 3B Isaac Paredes was the driving force behind this, as he led the Majors in two-out RBI with 46.

UP TO THE CHALLENGE: Astros hitters were third in the AL in successful ABS challenges with 93 (in 185 chances). Among individual players, Jose Altuve had 21 successful challenges on the year, the most in the American League.

ABOUT THE ROSTER: The Astros used 28 different position players and 31 true pitchers for a total of 59 players used in the 2026 season. They used 19 different starting pitchers, a franchise record.

THE LINEUP: The Astros used 156 different lineups in their 162 games, repeating a lineup just six times on the season. DH Yordan Alvarez had the most starts at any spot in the lineup among Astros, hitting second 147 times.

ANNUAL HOUSTON BBWAA AWARDS: The Houston Chapter of the Baseball Writers Association of America announced the 2026 Astros award winners as below:

• Astros MVP: Yordan Alvarez

• Astros Pitcher of the Year: Peter Lambert

• Astros Rookie of the Year: AJ Blubaugh

• Darryl Kile Good Guy Award: Bryan Abreu

• Fred Hartman Long and Meritorious Service to Baseball Award: Brent Strom

ASTROS 2026 HIGHLIGHTS:

Feb. 11……………First day of Spring Training

March 26 ………………….Astros Opening Day

April 3 ……………Alvarez records 500th RBI

April 6 ……………..Alvarez named AL POTW

April 21 ……..Altuve plays in 2,000th game

May 4 ………Alvarez named April AL POTM

May 13 …………..Cole walkoff single vs. SEA

May 25 ……..Astros throw no-hitter at TEX

June 3 ……….Arrighetti named May POTM

June 3 ………..Hader makes season debut

June 4 ……..Paredes hits 100th career HR

June 8 …………….Alvarez named AL POTW

June 8 …..Alvarez has six RBI in an inning

July 4 ………………Alvarez walkoff HR vs. TB

July 6 ………………Alvarez named AL POTW

July 11 ………………….2026 MLB draft begins

July 14 ……………..The 2026 All-Star Game

July 17 ……………Peña begins 15g hit streak

July 27 ………………..Peña named AL POTW

July 31…………Astros move into first place

Aug. 2 ……………..Astros win 11 of 12 games

Aug. 3 ……………Alvarez named July POTM

Aug. 3 …………………Astros trade for Varsho

Aug. 14 …………..Walker walkoff HR vs. SEA

Aug. 15 ……………Two added to Astros HOF

Sept. 3 ……….Hader named August ROTM

Sept. 4 ….Hader earns 250th career save

Sept. 9 …………..Altuve records 2,500th hit

Sept. 24 ……..Spence has three-HR game

Sept. 27 …………………Astros clinch division

Sept. 29……………Game 1 of the WC Series