This game started off bad when Portland jumped to a 15-4 lead, became terrible when Wemby went down with a concussion, softened somewhat when the Spurs led by double digits in the fourth, and then landed like bad egg salad when they squandered that lead in the final minutes. Let’s be blunt: the Spurs are better than the Blazers even in the absence of Victor, as they proved earlier this year and for a big chunk of playing time in this game. However, this iteration of San Antonio is sorely lacking in playoff experience, and that absolutely showed down the stretch. Having said all of this, last night’s game did produce some interesting (albeit often disappointing) box score stats, and I hope you all will take solace in reviewing the highlights:
Note: Now that we’ve moved into the postseason, the reference period used for grading changes from the set of regular season games since 2012-2013 to the set of postseason games since 2012-2013. Unless otherwise noted below, this set DOES include play-in games. As of the end of April 21, 2026, this group include 1,135 games.
Factors that decided the game
- Portland held minor edges in offensive boards (+3) and turnovers (-2), but these advantages had a minimal effect on offensive opportunity. In fact, while the Blazers did have three more field goal attempts, they also fouled the Spurs more often and at worse times, resulting in a FTA margin of +5 for San Antonio.
- Unfortunately, the Silver and Black logged a disappointing free throw percentage of 71.43%, leaving eight crucial points on the table.
- Given that San Antonio did outscore Portland by three at the charity stripe, the game ultimately was decided from the field. Interestingly, both teams made exactly 38 shots, meaning that the Spurs actually held a small edge in FG% (+1.49 percentage points).
- However, the Blazers leaned much more heavily into shooting from distance, with a 3PA margin of +14. The Spurs’ terrible efficiency from three also gave Portland a +5.04 percentage-point edge in 3P%. Taken together, these forces generated a +6 3PM differential for the Blazers, resulting in Portland outscoring San Antonio by six from the field.
Rare Box Score Stats
- There were quite a lot of steals and blocks in this game, and they were really unevenly distributed. In fact, this was just the eighth playoff games since 2012-2013 in which the winning team had a block differential of +6 or more while having a steal differential of -5 or less (that’s a frequency of once in every 142 games).
- In the 1,135 playoff games since 2012-2013, this was just the 11th time that a team won while notching FGM and FTM differentials as bad or worse than +0 and -3, respectively.
- Even though he finished with just 18 points, Castle was the Spurs’ leading scorer. This is not a great recipe for success, as there have only been 74 playoff games dating all the way back to 1996-1997 in which the winning team’s leading scorer register a point total at least this low. Furthermore, this event has become increasingly rare over time, with the last occurrence prior to last night being in 2021.
What are Team Graded Box Scores?
Very briefly, these box scores grade winner-loser differentials for basic box score statistics, with the grade being based on the winning team’s differential relative to other NBA winners during a defined reference period. Think of it like a report card for understanding how a given winner performed relative to other winners. The reference period used runs from the start of the 2012-2013 season to the latest date of play, including only games in the same season category (i.e., regular season and playoff games are not compared to each other).
Data Source: The underlying data used to create these box scores was collected from Basketball Reference. In all cases, the data are collected the morning after the game is played. Although rare, postgame statistical revisions after data collection do occur and may affect the results after the fact.
