SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - MAY 09: Braxton Ashcraft #35 of the Pittsburgh Pirates pitches against the San Francisco Giants in the bottom of the first inning of a major league baseball game at Oracle Park on May 09, 2026 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Pitching Matchup: Braxton Ashcraft (2-2, 3.09 ERA) vs. Dustin May (3-4, 4.81 ERA)
The Pittsburgh Pirates are on the road today against the St. Louis Cardinals looking to grab a win.
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The NHL and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Thursday announced their entry into a memorandum of understanding to protect the integrity of trading markets involving the league.
A memorandum of understanding (MOU) is a formal, non-binding document that details the objectives and responsibilities of at least two parties.
Key Takeaways
The arrangement mirrors one the CFTC signed with the MLB in March.
The NHL was the first professional American sports league to partner with prediction platforms.
NHL data will be shared with the CFTC, which will help watch for insider trading
With the agreement in place, the NHL will work with the CFTC to help regulate prediction markets featuring NHL players, matches, and future events. In return, the CFTC — a federal agency in charge of regulating licensed prediction platforms — will use information and resources provided by the NHL to keep a watchful eye over customers' trades and to crack down on suspicious behavior.
The CFTC and the NHL also appointed representatives who will regularly communicate to collaborate on ideas related to the integrity of markets in hockey and related events. They will also share confidential information and maintain open lines of communication.
Additionally, the NHL has internal protections and integrity partners who help combat nefarious forms of sports betting and prediction trading.
The NHL was an early adopter of prediction platforms. Its deals with Kalshi and Polymarket, which were finalized last October, were the first between a professional American sports league and prediction operators.
“Integrity has always been and remains paramount to the NHL and fundamental to the trust our fans and partners place in our game,” NHL commissioner Gary Bettman said in a statement.
“Our agreement with the CFTC enhances the comprehensive integrity monitoring systems already in place and strengthens our ability to identify, deter, and address potential risks. This MOU reflects a shared commitment to transparency, oversight and protecting the integrity of the game.”
Although the MOU is non-binding, it establishes a deeper connection between the CFTC and one of the most popular sports leagues in America. This comes two months after the MLB signed the first MOU with the CFTC related to prediction market integrity.
Fighting against insider trading
The rapid growth in the popularity of prediction platforms has raised real concerns about the possibility of insider trading. An infamous example of that came when a U.S. soldier involved in the capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro won more than $400,000 on Polymarket by predicting the event would happen shortly before embarking on the mission.
While the NHL already had employees and agencies responsible for identifying possible cases of insider trading, the new collaboration will strengthen its protection against these events.
“I’m proud the CFTC and NHL have officially signed an MOU, furthering the agency’s commitment to improve data sharing between professional sports leagues and the Commission,” said CFTC chairman Michael S. Selig.
“This agreement is another step toward safeguarding the integrity of sports and protecting market participants in prediction markets from insider trading, fraud, and other abuses. I applaud NHL Commissioner Bettman for collaborating with the CFTC and taking a leading role in protecting the integrity of professional hockey in our markets.”
While prediction platforms are experiencing a similar catapult into the mainstream as the sports betting boom that occurred after federal legalization in 2018, they should now be more equipped to identify and stop illicit behavior.
Taking the necessary steps
As NHL partners, Kalshi and Polymarket had already given the trading information access to the league’s data distributor and its betting integrity agency, IC360.
In other prediction market news, a new report from gambling research firm Eilers & Krejcik Gaming estimated that Kalshi generated $1.3 billion in NHL trading volume during the year that ended at the start of May. That represented 2.8% of its American sports trading volume, just behind the MLB (3.2%).
SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - MAY 20: Freddie Freeman #5 of the Los Angeles Dodgers celebrates after hitting a double against the San Diego Padres during the first inning at Petco Park on May 20, 2026 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman doubled in each of his first two at-bats in Wednesday’s win over the San Diego Padres, finishing off a productive series at Petco Park. He now has 560 doubles in his career, tied for 30th all-time in MLB history.
He’s tied with Eddie Murray and Jeff Kent, both who like Freeman came to Los Angeles in the back half of their careers. Freeman and Murray were linked not only given their timing in joining the Dodgers, but by production as well. By similarity scores, Murray was the most similar player to Freeman for every age from 21 to 32. Murray and Kent are both in the Hall of Fame, and Freeman will join them one day in Cooperstown.
Freeman in his first four years with the Dodgers hit 180 doubles, the most in any four-year span in franchise history. He began the year tied for 34th all-time with Manny Ramirez, another former Dodger, and has since passed Alex Rodríguez and Freeman’s former Atlanta Braves teammate Chipper Jones.
Up next is Carlos Beltrán in 29th place with 565 doubles.
We are through 50 games of this Dodgers season, and Freeman has 13 doubles, putting him on pace for 42 this year. Freeman has five seasons with at least 40 doubles in his career, plus 39 doubles last season.
The New York Mets will try to salvage a series split as they take on the Washington Nationals this afternoon.
The Washington offense continues to roll night after night, and I like it to get a win and carry the Over in my Mets vs. Nationals predictions.
Read on for more analysis and to get my free MLB picks for Thursday, May 14.
Who will win Mets vs Nationals today: Nationals moneyline (+100)
New York Mets starter David Peterson has struggled to get back to the pitcher he was in early 2025. He’s 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA this season, and while he’s been better working behind an opener, his stuff still isn’t what it once was.
Mets vs Nationals Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-122)
The Nationals have been the best offensive team in the majors so far this season, scoring 5.58 runs per game. That might be more sustainable than many suspect, as Washington has a .331 xwOBA on the year, sixth-best in the league.
But the Mets offense is waking up as well. New York has averaged 7.0 runs per game over its last nine, and both Juan Soto and Bo Bichette have hit three homers in this series so far. These teams are putting up tons of runs, and the Over is the play tonight.
Ed Scimia's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 9-13, -4.98 units
Over/Under bets: 7-13, -6.53 units
Mets vs Nationals odds
Moneyline: Mets +100 | Nationals -104
Run line: Mets +1.5 (-213) | Nationals -1.5 (+203)
Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-117) | Under 7.5 (+113)
Mets vs Nationals trend
The Over is 5-0-1 in six meetings between the Mets and Nationals this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Nationals.
How to watch Mets vs Nationals and game info
Location
Nationals Park, Washington, DC
Date
Thursday, May 21, 2026
First pitch
4:05 p.m. ET
TV
SNY, Nationals.TV
Mets starting pitcher
David Peterson (2-4, 5.40 ERA)
Nationals starting pitcher
Cade Cavalli (2-2, 4.05 ERA)
Mets vs Nationals latest injuries
Mets vs Nationals weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
White Sox fans have seen it all, complained about most of it, and still came back for more. | (Patrick Gorski/Imagn Images)
Welcome back to our Discussion series. With an off-day to sit and ponder, today’s question focuses on the people who live and die with every pitch: what are the best and worst traits of our fan base?
South Siders are a cocktail of loyalty, humor, pure stubbornness, and survival instinct. This bunch has survived more rebuilds, fake turnarounds, and bullpen implosions than anyone should have to. Still, we show up and convince ourselves that the next batch of prospects is the answer. Pride? Sure. Baggage? Lots of it.
Some say White Sox fans are some of the sharpest and most passionate in the game. Others say decades of letdowns have baked in an expectation of disaster before hope can even stretch its legs. Is that hard-earned wisdom, or just pessimism that has become deeply embedded in the fan experience?
No trophies for ‘best fans’ here, and no need to air out the laundry. We’re just curious about what actually makes Sox fans tick. Is it the stubborn loyalty, the pitch-black humor, the endless Twitter brawls? Or is there something uniquely South Side that outsiders simply don’t understand?
Step up and sound off because if there’s one thing Sox fans never run short on, it’s opinions.
CLEVELAND, OH - APRIL 23: Catcher David Fry #6 and Tyler Freeman #2 of the Cleveland Guardians celebrate a 4-1 win against the Boston Red Sox at Progressive Field on April 23, 2024 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Ron Schwane/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Stephen Vogt is a great manager, but we need to see some adjustment in how he uses David Fry.
Good news on David Fry! He appears to be a solid major league hitter. He has a 112 wRC+ this season and a 110 wRC+ for his career.
Bad news on Guardians’ catchers! The Guards have two amazing defensive catchers who cannot hit a lick – Hedges has a career 51 wRC+ and Bailey has a career 71 wRC+.
Good news! David Fry can play catcher, so he can be put in a catcher position to allow the team not to endure a Patrick Bailey or Austin Hedges at-bat with the game on the line.
Bad news! Stephen Vogt seems to have too much confidence in Bailey and Hedges as hitters (mistake!) and/or not enough confidence in David Fry as a catcher (he may be right!) to optimally employ this strategy. Notably, he can pinch-hit for Bailey or Hedges in the 7th or 8th and then get whichever defensive savant he wants in the game in the 9th to relieve Fry to reduce any defensive risks.
Last night, in the bottom of the fifth last night, Tuesday, May 20th, with right-hander Kyle Finnegan on the mound, Stephen Vogt pinch-hit Travis Bazzana for David Fry, who was in right-field at the time. I am really not sure why he did this, as Finnegan was clearly at the end of his appearance and Tigers’ manager AJ Hinch was likely to bring a lefty in to face a left-handed hitter, as he proceeded to do. Mostly, the issue with this move was the Fry was now unavailable to move to catcher if a pinch-hitter was needed for Patrick Bailey later in the game. This is not an isolated incident, nor is choosing to start David Fry at DH where moving him to catcher requires the team to lose the DH-spot.
Consequently, the worst possible outcome occurred later in the game. Needing one run to tie the game, Patrick Bailey took the most important at-bat of the game for the Guardians with only Petey Halpin and Austin Hedges available on the bench to bat for him. Bailey got the groundball to tie the game, but not without significant travail. Now, Bazzana did single ahead of Bailey’s at-bat to give the team the chance to tie the game, so maybe Vogt wins on this gambit. Yet, it doesn’t change the fact that Vogt and the team need to be clear on this strategem – if at all possible, Fry needs to be kept available to be used in the catcher spot so that Austin Hedges and Patrick Bailey do not have the fate of any game resting on their bats unless absolutely necessary.
Stop being confident in Bailey and Hedges to hit with the game on the line. There is AMPLE evidence that neither should be trusted to hit. Optimize David Fry’s presence on this roster by leveraging him into catcher at-bats late in close games. Please and thank you.
Ray Bennett, the longtime NHL assistant who spent last season running their woeful power play, won’t return for the 2026-27 campaign, the team announced, and the Capitals subsequently announced that he’d joined their staff as an assistant.
The decision for Bennett to leave the Islanders was mutual, according to The Post’s Ethan Sears, and it marked the second change since the Islanders’ season ended outside of the playoffs — with AHL head coach Rocky Thompson also getting promoted to the NHL staff earlier this month after one year running Bridgeport.
Assistant coach Ray Bennett of the New York Islanders works the game against the Toronto Maple Leafs at UBS Arena on April 09, 2026 in Elmont, New York. Getty Images
“The organization would like to thank Ray for his hard work and dedication to the organization last season,” the Islanders said in a statement.
Bennett, who also spent time as an assistant with the Blues and Kings, arrived last year as an addition to Patrick Roy’s staff after a stint with the Avalanche running their power play, but the Islanders’ unit kept struggling and finished with the third-worst unit in the NHL during the regular season at 16.5 percent.
Over the final 12 games of the regular season, with the Islanders clinging to their playoff hopes, they converted just five of their 34-man advantage opportunities, and that percentage worsened to just 2-for-18 across their final six games.
That, somehow, marked an improvement from their 12.5 percent rate from 2024-25.
Matthew Schaefer, who won the Calder Trophy as the league’s rookie of the year, led the Islanders with eight power-play goals while Bo Horvat added seven, but no one else collected more than five.
New York Islanders head coach Peter DeBoer looks on during the third period against the Ottawa Senators at UBS Arena, Saturday, April 11, 2026, in Elmont, NY. Corey Sipkin for the NY POST
It’ll serve as a primary issue for DeBoer, who coached the final four games after Patrick Roy’s firing, and his staff to solve entering next season, and now, with Bennett not returning, someone else will be tasked with running it, too.
Two of the key contributors for their teams in Game 1 — Spurs rookie guard Dylan Harper and Thunder star Jalen Williams — both could not finish Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals due to what appears to be hamstring injuries. Both are set to undergo an MRI, reports Tim MacMahon and Michael C. Wright of ESPN. The status for both in Game 3 — and the rest of the series — remains in question.
Williams missed six Thunder playoff games — two against the Suns and the entire Lakers series — with a left hamstring strain, and that was the leg again getting treatment. After a 26-point, seven-rebound performance in Game 1, Williams played just seven minutes in Game 2 before leaving the game, getting treatment on the bench for a while before going back to the locker room and being ruled out for the night.
It's been an injury-plagued season for Williams, who made an All-NBA team a season ago and was a critical part of Oklahoma City's title run, but played in just 33 games this season due to recovery from wrist surgery and then a right hamstring strain. Harper, the Spurs rookie, had a breakout Game 1 starting in place of the injured De'Aaron Fox (ankle): 24 points, 11 rebounds, six assists and seven steals. However, he left the game in the third quarter of Game 2 not to return, with what appeared to be a right hamstring injury.
Harper’s absence as a ball-handler, alongside Fox missing both games this series due to ongoing ankle soreness after rolling it in the last series against Minnesota, has put a lot of pressure on Stephon Castle as the primary ball-handler and shot-creator against an elite defensive team in Oklahoma City. The result is that Castle has 20 turnovers through the two games of this Western Conference Finals. "They turn you over," Spurs coach Mitch Johnson said of the Thunder after Game 2. "So when you're down some of your primary creators and initiators, it causes a little bit of an extra strain, whether that's who to play, what to play, what to run, etc. It's tough fully loaded against these guys."
We should have official word on Harper and Williams as we move closer to the tip-off of Game 3, on Friday night in San Antonio (tip-off at 8:30 p.m. ET, a game you can catch on NBC or stream on Peacock).
However, it seems unlikely either Harper or Williams would play in Game 3, and their status for the rest of the series may be up in the air.
BOSTON, MA - MAY 2: Derrick White #9 of the Boston Celtics arrives to the arena before the game against the Philadelphia 76ers during Round One Game Seven of the 2026 NBA Playoffs on May 2, 2026 at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
The 2025-26 season had a lot of surprises for Boston Celtics fans. Jaylen Brown’s ascension to a top-10 player over the regular season. Neemias Queta’s explosive growth into a serviceable starting center. The Stay Ready crew’s energy and impact. Sadly, a disappointing first-round playoff exit.
However, one of the biggest surprises was the disappearance of Derrick White’s shot. White may have started his career in San Antonio with a shaky shot, but he developed into a certified sniper in 2022-23 — his first full season with the Celtics — and shot at least 38.1% from three-point range over the three seasons preceding 2025-26.
So, what went wrong this season? And what might it mean for his future with the team?
Examining White’s shooting over the 2025-26 season
There was no gradual buildup to White’s shooting struggles: it was evident right out of the gate. The 31-year-old started the season with a string of inauspicious “tour date” shooting performances, kicked off with 7/20 shooting from the field in the Celtics’ opening night loss to the Philadelphia 76ers.
He shot only 4/13, or 30.8%, from three-point range on opening night, but that proved to be his most efficient showing over the first seven games of the season. Over those seven games, White hit only 30.8% of his shots from the field and 25% of his three-point attempts while jacking up almost 17 field goal attempts per game.
In lieu of Jayson Tatum, the Celtics resorted to using White as a second option on offense, as he finished behind only Jaylen Brown in shot attempts per game. While he put up 12.6 field goal attempts per game the year before, he shot 16.2 per game over the first 38 games of the 2025-26 season — a nearly 30% increase.
Despite a handful of explosive performances, like a 33-point showing on 55% shooting from the field and 64.3% shooting from three-point range against the Miami Heat last December, White clearly struggled early on with his newly expanded role on offense.
Nevertheless, he seemed to build some momentum toward the end of 2025. White’s three-point shooting efficiency improved from 25.4% on 10.5 attempts per game in October to 35.7% on 7.5 attempts in November, then to 38.2% in December on 10.9 attempts per game.
That momentum collapsed in January, when he shot only 37.3% from the field and 25.9% from three-point range, but things evened out a little in February, when he shot 39.5% from the field and 35.1% from three-point range.
By the time Tatum returned in March, White was shooting 39.2% from the field on 15.2 attempts per game and 33% on 8.8 three-point attempts per game — both well below his career averages.
Many pundits (including me) expected Tatum’s return to benefit White by lessening his offensive load and allowing him to be used in a more off-ball role. While his volume drastically decreased with Tatum back on the court — he attempted only 11.4 field goals and 6.5 three-pointers per game following Tatum’s return on March 6 — his efficiency did not improve. In fact, from three-point range, it only got worse: White hit only 30.9% of his three-pointers over his last 17 games with Tatum back in the lineup.
Volume-wise, it was a career year for White. He averaged a career-high 16.5 points on 14.4 shot attempts per game, 4.4 rebounds (the second-highest mark of his career) and 5.4 assists — another career high. He also averaged career highs in steals per game (1.1) and blocks per game (1.3).
However, it may have been White’s single-worst season in terms of shooting efficiency. He shot 39.4% from the field (the worst mark of his career) and 32.7% on 8.3 three-point attempts per game (his second-worst three-point shooting season of his career). His 48.9% effective field goal and 52.9% true shooting percentages were also career-worsts.
His expanded offensive role through February played into that inefficiency, as he was only assisted on 71.8% of his three-point makes over the course of the season, and only 11.4% of his three-point attempts were from the corner — both being the lowest marks of his Celtics tenure and the second-lowest marks of his career in their respective categories.
White’s shooting struggles got even worse in the playoffs, where he shot 32.1% from the field on 11.6 shot attempts per game and 27.3% on 7.9 three-point attempts. His lack of success seemed to impact his confidence, too, as he hesitated on a handful of open shots and passed out of multiple scoring opportunities, even when the Celtics were desperate for a basket. He did not score more than 11 points until he broke out in Game 7 (interestingly enough with Tatum sitting out with an injury) but, by then, it was too late.
Is White’s future in Boston at risk?
Despite White’s huge contributions to the 2023-24 championship run and the team’s overall success in recent years, he could be on the chopping block if Brad Stevens is looking to make waves this offseason.
His defense remains elite — it seems like he only gets better and better at racking up stocks at the years go by — but it is unclear if the soon-to-be 32-year-old can regain the shooting efficiency that made him one of the best role players in the game.
A consistent, smaller role than the one he was pushed into for 2025-26 may help since White has historically been at his best as a tertiary option behind the Jays. He did struggle to hit shots while playing alongside Tatum this year, but that may be due to his fluctuating role on offense as he was asked to step up as a creator in the early season, then got lost in the mix upon JT’s return.
If White is unable to return to form, he might not fit in if the team continues to be built around the Jays and a three-point-heavy offense moving forward. Neither of the Jays are elite shooters in terms of efficiency from deep, but their gravity can create open opportunities for others, so they need to be surrounded by above-average shooters who can capitalize on those open looks in order for Joe Mazzulla’s offense to churn at a high gear.
Other factors to consider regarding White’s future in Boston are his salary, age, and redundancy with the team’s up-and-comers.
White will be 32 by the time the 2026-27 season begins, with two years of more than $30 million in guaranteed salary and a $34,844,000 player option for 2028-29. Stevens got the C’s under the luxury tax this year, but that price tag is difficult to maintain next to the Jays’ two supermax deals. Following the 2026-27 season, the contracts of Neemias Queta, Jordan Walsh, Luka Garza and Amari Williams will expire, so it could prove to be quite a task to retain them while keeping White and the Jays.
Additionally, White has earned his reputation as an elite role player so, in combination with his sizable contract, he could be used as an asset in potential trade deals. That’s also where his redundancy with others on the team could come into play, since Boston has Payton Pritchard on a bargain contract and a small collection of young, exciting wings on rookie deals, like Baylor Scheierman, Jordan Walsh and Hugo Gonzalez.
If Stevens is serious about upgrading the Celtics’ impact at the rim, he may see White and his contract as more expendable than Pritchard or the team’s stable of young wings.
White has become a fan favorite in Boston for his defensive impact, willingness to lose teeth to win games, and his magical buzzer-beating shot in Miami to send the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals to Game 7, but he could end up a trade casualty regardless — especially if he can’t get his shot back early next season.
Baseball field, engraving, United States of America, 19th century. | De Agostini via Getty Images
On May 21, 1880, a strange thing happened in upstate New York. While playing at Riverside Park in Albany, Lip Pike — playing for the National Association team in Albany in between stints at the professional/semi-professional level — hit a fly ball over the fence in right field and into the nearby river. Outfielder Lon Knight, playing for the visiting Worcester Ruby Legs, hopped in a boat to chase the ball — because, despite the fact that the ball went over the wall, it was still technically a live ball!
These days, when the ball goes over the fence, it is out of play, and depending on whether it gets there on the fly or on a bounce determines whether it’s a home run or a ground-rule double (yes, it’s officially called an automatic double, but, well, old habits die hard). However—like everything in baseball—this rule wasn’t written down on golden tablets handed to Abner Doubleday/Alexander Cartwright/whichever semi-mythological figure you consider to be the founder of baseball, but one that evolved throughout the history of the game. Unfortunately, the Baseball Almanac’s list of rules changes does not give us an exact moment that this rule was created, but we can surmise that it came into existence prior to the National League’s creation in 1876, as on May 2nd of that year, Chicago White Stockings second baseman Ross Barnes hit the first home run in what would become Major League history. But even then, its story was not so simple.
If you have followed my history-of-early-baseball posts over the past few years, you already know that 19th-century baseball was organized very differently than the baseball of today. Rather than a centralized league imposing a particular ruleset, the home team determined the particular rule set the game was played under, with convention dictating the most basic rules, up until the creation of the NL. Indeed, even after the Senior Circuit came into existence, the home teams still had quite a bit of say in how the game was played, as the NL office in its early years focused less on the product on the field and more on bullying other leagues out of existence to ensure a monopoly over the sport (but that’s a story for another day).
We see hints of this still today, where individual ballparks have rules to determine home run/ground rule double/foul ball when the ball hits a catwalk, or gets stuck in the ivy, or any other random thing occurs that is unique to that ballpark. But in the 1800s, even fundamental rules, such as what happened when a ball went over the fence, depended on where the game was played.
Did Lon Knight actually grab a boat and chase down a ball in the river in order to get the ball and try to make a play? In truth, it sounds a bit ridiculous. How slow must the batter have been where hopping the fence, heading into a boat, and setting sail on the river seemed a perfectly reasonable solution? It’s not for nothing that the SABR biography of Knight says “there is undoubtedly some fictitious element to the story.” Since the teams had a limited amount of balls back in those days, it seems more likely to me that Knight hopped in the river not to continue the play, but to continue the game, and that over time, the story grew in its telling. What this story does reinforce, though, is the fact that these rules depended by and large on the ballpark; if a ball over the fence was always a home run, after all, this story could not have come into existence in the version described.
Naturally, some teams took advantage of this. In the early 1880s, the Chicago White Stockings played on a field with short fences (some sources place them less than 200 feet from home plate), and according to convention at the time, batted balls hit over a fence that was less than 250 feet were treated as doubles, not home runs. According to SABR, however, in 1884, Chicago changed their own ground rule so that everything that went over the fence was considered a homer, not a double, resulting in a season in which Ned Williamson hit 27 home runs, a record that would stand until Babe Ruth’s 29-homer season in 1920.
In time, to stop shenanigans such as this, rules surrounding batted balls hit over the fence were ultimately standardized. Originally, in addition to all fly balls that went over the wall being considered home runs, all balls that bounced just once before going over fell into this category, neatly paralleling the fact that, up until 1864 for fair balls and 1883 for foul balls, batted balls caught on one bounce were considered an out; only in 1931 was this rule changed, and the modern-day ground-rule double brought into existence. As such, these days, shenanigans about long fly balls are limited to non-professional games, such as your local little leagues or bar softball games — or, apparently, the Saarikenttä in Finland.
It’s a small MLB slate on Thursday, and things have been ice-cold lately—so it might be time for a little extra help to get these home runs and MLB player props back on track. I don’t usually go searching for it, but today feels like one of those days, and one matchup is drawing plenty of attention.
Along with a look at the Rockies-Diamondbacks game, I’m also eyeing slugging catcher Shea Langeliers to launch his 13th homer of the season when he faces José Soriano and a shaky Los Angeles Angels bullpen.
These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Thursday, May 21.
First, it’s a small slate, but Goodman just saw E-Rod in his last start and did rope a 101-mph single off him. The Colorado Rockies also put nine balls in play at 95+ mph against the lefty in that series. Goodman posted a .969 OPS during it as well, including a homer off Merrill Kelly. The right-handed bat also owns the fastest swing on the team over the last two weeks at 75 mph.
The familiarity factor usually isn’t priced in, which gives this HR prop more expected value with a fair price around +380. The lefty starter has also pitched above both his career fly-ball and HR/FB rates, so some long-ball regression could finally be on the way.
With colder weather rolling in and pitcher-friendly winds showing up around the league, a controlled hitting environment may be the best place to hunt dingers on a small-slate Thursday.
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: DBACKS.TV, Rockies.TV
Home run pick: Corbin Carroll (+445)
The Diamondbacks have a great hitting matchup today as the Rockies are rolling with call-up Zach Agnos, who hasn’t started a game this year and will hand things off early to a Colorado bullpen that owns the second-worst ERA over the last two weeks and ranks 28th in HR/FB rate over that stretch.
Corbin Carroll got the day off yesterday, but before that, he had ripped triples in back-to-back games and, three games ago, launched a pair of home runs against the Rockies and this bullpen.
It’s also nice to get a Top-10 bat sitting right at +EV with a fair price around +360. Over the last two weeks, Carroll ranks eighth in BlastContact, third in slugging, and second in ISO. On this small slate, he projects as the third-most likely player to go deep behind only Aaron Judge and Mike Trout.
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: DBACKS.TV, Rockies.TV
Home run pick: Shea Langeliers (+350)
Jose Soriano has fallen out of form, allowing 15 runs over his last 22 innings. The command is wavering, the double-digit strikeouts are no longer showing up, and Shea Langeliers has been a major problem for him.
The BlastContact darling has already taken Soriano deep twice in 11 at-bats while posting a 1.765 OPS in the matchup. He hasn’t had the best series so far, but getting plunked twice yesterday could provide some added motivation for a hitter sitting on 12 home runs and batting .322. Only four players have a higher slugging percentage than Langeliers this season.
The Los Angeles Angels bullpen is also capable of cashing this HR prop. It owns the second-worst ERA on the season, and that mark has been even uglier over the last two weeks (6.60). It’s extremely fly-ball heavy, and its HR/FB rate also sits in the Bottom 3 in baseball.
Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
Where to watch: NBC Sports California, ABTV
Josh Inglis' 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 13-83, -15.94 units
Today’s HR parlay
Hunter Goodman
Bet Now +10600
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WORCESTER — About a month removed from one of the most tumultuous days in Boston Red Sox history, Chad Tracy is finding his footing as the club’s interim manager. Now, the question is, will he shed the interim tag?
On April 25, Tracy was named Alex Cora’s replacement after Boston fired the longtime skipper and several members of his coaching staff, including beloved ex-Red Sox captain Jason Varitek. The stunning news broke during Triple-A Worcester’s game vs. the Syracuse Mets. Tracy left the WooSox dugout upon hearing of his promotion and joined the Red Sox in Baltimore, taking the helm just 16 hours after Cora’s departure.
Iggy Suarez, Worcester’s third base coach at the time, took over Tracy’s managerial duties.
“It’s a shock, just how everything went down,” Suarez told NBC Sports Boston. “I’m not surprised that it’s Chad Tracy getting the opportunity. I’m happy for him. I’ve kind of been on his hip for the last year and a half, seeing how he goes about his process and what he does. It’s good to see how he works. There’s no better guy right now to be in that position.
“But when that all initially happened in that Saturday game, mid-game, it was a surprise, because you obviously never think something like that is gonna happen. It was a shock, and it took us a little bit to realize what was going down, but when the dust settled a little bit, we were happy for Trace. I’m glad he’s having the opportunity.”
Since then, Tracy’s Red Sox have posted a 12-10 record. They were 10-17 at the time of Cora’s firing, so they’ve taken a small step forward since their abysmal start.
As the season continues, there surely will be questions about who should assume the official Red Sox manager position. Tracy is expected to be a leading candidate, but there presumably will be several other interesting names — some with plenty of MLB managerial experience — considered for the role.
“The only way you gain experience is by someone giving you the opportunity to get it,” WooSox hitting instructor and former Red Sox catcher Rich Gedman told NBC Sports Boston. “I think if Chad just continues to be Chad and doesn’t change because it’s the big leagues, he’ll do just fine.
“He’s a solid baseball guy, he’s a solid man. He’s as good a guy as you’re gonna get. Hopefully, the players can play for him, and he reaps the benefits of the opportunity that he has.”
A ‘genuine’ approach
One player who has spent time with both Tracy and Cora is former top prospect Kristian Campbell. The 23-year-old made Boston’s 2025 Opening Day roster after soaring through the minor league ranks, but was sent back down to Triple-A — where he remains — after experiencing growing pains in the majors.
“They’re very similar. They’re both really good managers, in my opinion,” Campbell told NBC Sports Boston. “They both know how to manage the game, they both know how to relate to the players, and they’ve both played professional baseball, so they have a lot in common. From my point of view, I had a good time with both of them, and I think they did a really good job at their job.”
Tracy, the son of former manager Jim Tracy, played eight minor-league seasons but never reached the majors. He hit .265/.336/.453 with 127 homers over 857 games in the Texas Rangers, Colorado Rockies, and Kansas City Royals organizations.
So, what makes Tracy good at his job? We’ve seen enough of his in-game management to know he looks the part, but his clubhouse presence is perhaps even more important. Leadership is in short supply in this Red Sox clubhouse, so what does Tracy bring in that department?
“He’s just a genuine person,” Suarez said. “Baseball guy, gets it, been through the grind. Kind of knows how it is to be a player through those ups and downs, and being able to communicate is for him. He’s very up front, very honest, but again, it’s genuine. It’s nothing where it’s harsh and in your face, it’s just very honest.
“I think especially at this level and at the big-league level, that’s important. Especially now, going into the situation he’s in. I think the genuineness of establishing a relationship is what makes him a great manager.
Patience paying off?
Asked to share one quality of Tracy’s that he tries to implement in his job as a manager, Suarez didn’t hesitate.
“His patience, for sure,” he answered. “I’ve managed for quite some time in A-ball, and having patience is something as a manager that you grow to learn. You never stop learning how to be patient. So, seeing him kind of handle situations in-game and still be cool, calm, and collected — to see his patience and how he’s able to kind of think through it very calmly, is something that I admire from afar.”
Campbell seconded Suarez’s assessment of Tracy’s ability to communicate effectively with players.
“He does a good job communicating every day of what he wants from us,” Campbell said. “Everybody’s different, especially when it comes to baseball. There’s different roles and different tasks that we all need to get better at, and from a development standpoint in Triple-A, there’s a lot of stuff for us to work on. I feel like he let us know what it was from the get-go.”
When Campbell was demoted to Triple-A last year, Tracy helped him get back into the right headspace.
“He was just there for me, there to back me up. Anything I needed, I could go to him and talk to him about it,” Campbell said. “But from a communication standpoint, he did a good job of telling me what he needed me to do and what he wanted me to work on and improve on when it came to offense and defense.”
Gedman, who had worked alongside Tracy since 2022, raved about his leadership ability.
“I think he’s a wonderful leader. He leads by example, he’s a straight shooter, there’s no BS with him,” the two-time All-Star said. “He’s baseball through and through, but there’s a great person in there. He’s a seasoned vet, if you will.
“He’s a hard worker, he’s a good dad. I mean, all those things when you talk about the character of a good person, I’m not sure I have enough adjectives to do the justice he deserves, but he’s a special person and if anybody has a chance to settle this down, I think he’s the type of guy.”
NBC Sports Boston
Chad Tracy managed several key Red Sox players, including Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu, in Worcester.
Relationship with the young core
When Tracy is evaluated for the managerial role alongside more experienced candidates, he’ll have one significant advantage. During his time in Worcester, he had already built relationships with several key Red Sox players on their roads to the majors, such as Campbell, Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu, among others. Players might prefer that familiarity over starting from scratch with a new hire.
“Just being in this organization a couple of years, having some familiarity with the players already during spring training, that’s one thing that kind of made the transition a little easier for him and gives him kind of a leg up on other candidates,” Suarez said. “There’s relationships already established. Then it’s almost like, ‘OK, let’s just play the game. Let’s do what we’ve done our whole lives.’
“Still, the big-league level is very difficult, but I think that’s the one thing he has a leg up on. The experience with the young players coming up that we’ve had here in Triple-A, and just being able to have that relationship. That’s one thing that’s gonna help him hopefully get into a situation where he’s able to get the spot up there.”
With this year’s club, Tracy has his hands full. The Red Sox offense has been among MLB’s worst, ranking 29th in runs scored (181), 29th in home runs (36), and 26th in OPS (.680). Pitching has been a strength, but that only gets you so far when you can’t score.
Optimism around the club has been hard to come by, but you can find it in Worcester. Gedman, who experienced his fair share of ups and downs during his playing career in Boston from 1980 to 1990, believes Tracy & Co. can still right the ship.
“We have not seen the best of the Boston Red Sox yet,” Gedman said. “That could happen if Alex is there or not there. But the nice part is we get to talk about Trace, who gets the opportunity. Hopefully, he can steer the ship in the right direction. You get enough guys rowing in the right direction with him, they could become who they think they’re capable of being.”
Fresh off a three-game series sweep of the Kansas City Royals, the Red Sox (22-27) will look to stay hot when they begin a three-game set against the Minnesota Twins on Friday at Fenway Park.
The New York Mets, ranked fifth in the NL East with a 21-28 record, face the Washington Nationals, who are third in the NL East with a 25-25 record. The game is essentially a pick'em, with the Mets at -115 and the Nationals at -105. Starting pitchers are David Peterson for the Mets, with a 5.40 ERA, and Cade Cavalli for the Nationals, with a 4.05 ERA.
How to watch New York Mets vs Washington Nationals
It's a condensed schedule on a Thursday getaway day, but our expert MLB picks have still found a quartet of prices showing strong value at Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Mets/Nationals Under 8.5
Price: 54¢ (-117) at Polymarket
Let’s hammer the getaway Under with the New York Mets heading to Miami on Friday and the Washington Nationals traveling to Atlanta tonight. The weather is working in the Under’s favor as well, with 10-mph winds blowing in, 60-degree temperatures, and some projected rain in the mix. Neither team is likely eager to grind through a getaway-day game, and we could see some quick at-bats with both clubs having all of their high-leverage bullpen arms available. THE BAT also backs the Under with a fair price of -153 and just 7.56 projected runs.
Jon Metler's expert pick: Blue Jays moneyline
Price: 43¢ (+133) at Polymarket
Braydon Fisher will open for the Toronto Blue Jays, with Spencer Miles expected to handle the bulk of the innings afterward. At 43 cents, I’m more than willing to back Toronto against the New York Yankees, as I make the Blue Jays closer to 49-cent (+104) underdogs tonight. Toronto is expected to roll out a lineup featuring eight right-handed bats against Carlos Rodón, who has yet to look sharp since returning from injury, sporting a 5.63 ERA through his first two starts and still likely on a restricted pitch count. His fastball-slider combination has historically been vulnerable to right-handed power, and that issue becomes even more concerning when he isn’t at his best. The top of Toronto’s lineup, led by George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., is also very familiar with Rodón, giving the Blue Jays another edge offensively.
Neil Parker's expert pick: Braves moneyline
Price: 57¢ (-133) at Polymarket
Atlanta Braves starter Spencer Strider has allowed a single run on just four hits, while holding opposing hitters to a pedestrian 27.3% hard-hit rate, across his past two starts, and I’m anticipating him keeping the good times rolling against a ho-hum Miami Marlins lineup. The Marlins rank 19th in wOBA against right-handed arms, and Miami also ranks 20th in both overall ISO and xwOBA over the past two weeks. Of course, Atlanta has been a force at the dish all season and sits second in both runs per game and wOBA against righties.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: A's moneyline
Price: 51¢ (-104) at Polymarket
This is a great number on the Athletics tonight vs. an Angels team that has lost eight of its last nine games, with the offense bordering on embarrassing. Jose Soriano is crashing back to earth, allowing 12 earned runs and 24 baserunners across his three May starts, while Luis Severino’s numbers remain respectable outside of Sacramento, where he owns a 3.57 ERA. The biggest edge comes offensively, with the A's ranking fourth in OPS over the last two weeks... and the Angels sitting at 27th. LA’s bullpen has also been a disgrace, ranking 29th in both ERA and FIP during that span.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
The Toronto Blue Jays, ranked third in the AL East with a 22-27 record, face the New York Yankees, who are second in the AL East with a 30-20 record. The New York Yankees are favored with a -150 moneyline compared to the Toronto Blue Jays' +125. Starting pitchers are Braydon Fisher for Toronto, with a 3.08 ERA, and Carlos Rodón for New York, with a 5.63 ERA.
How to watch Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees
COVERS INTEL: The 
Hunter Goodman
Corbin Carroll
Shea Langeliers
NBC Sports Boston
