The Wizards got a fascinating prospect when they chose Will Riley 21st overall. He’s 6-9, skilled, has a funky tough-to-defend (especially if refs keep letting him use that carry elongated hesi dribble) game, and a good helping of competitive moxey.
He had some good moments last season, though I was less enamored with even “the good stuff” than many others seemed to be. I’m still in the maybe he could be good someday if he works hard camp. As befits a 19-20-year-old rookie, Riley needs to get better at everything.
Getting stronger is a given — that’s necessary for virtually every young player, and he’s no exception. I’m not entirely sure he’s done growing yet. Don’t be surprised if he measures at 6-10 when training camp begins. He’s not just young, he looks youthful — like a teenager still developing physically. That’s not criticism of him or the pick, by the way. It’s good that he had some of those positive games last season given where he is physically.
His game has promise, but “not bad for a young guy” doesn’t last long in the NBA, especially when the team is shifting from losing on purpose to competing for wins. Riley last season was average to below average across the board. He shot worse than average on twos and threes, though he did knock down 80% of his free throw attempts. Getting to the line was a relative strength — he was slightly above average in free throw attempts per team possession.
I think there’s some relatively easy fixes on the three-point shooting. Specifically, I’d like to see him stop clicking his heels, kicking a leg forward or back, and generally manage his footwork to give him a more stable shooting platform when possible.
If he was on another team, I’d likely be annoyed by the ball handling, which is heavy on what the rulebook would say are egregious carries. Since he’s on the Wizards, I’m more worried about how he’ll adapt if the league office tells officials to start calling carries in a manner resembling the actual rule.
Specifically, Rule No. 10, Section II-d:
A player who is dribbling may not put any part of his hand under the ball and (1) carry it from one point to another or (2) bring it to a pause and then continue to dribble again.
Perhaps a bigger issue for Riley is increased competition for minutes. He’s a forward who can play traditional SF or PF roles (depending on the opponent’s size, strength, and athleticism). At forward, the Wizards will have Anthony Davis, Alex Sarr, AJ Dybantsa, Kyshawn George, Bilal Coulibaly, and Justin Champagnie in the mix. Possibly Khris Middleton too, unless he’s taking over for Anthony Gill in the Team Dad role.
Even if Coulibaly, George or Dybantsa pick up some guard minutes (perhaps cutting into Tre Johnson’s or Bub Carrington’s time), Riley’s going to be in a battle for playing time. Hopefully he’s using the summer to prepare for it.
Let’s talk doppelgangers. This is the latest installment of the annual dog days tradition of running Wizards players through my Statistical Doppelganger Machine. The Machine compares the player’s performance across 14 categories and tells me which NBA player seasons since 1977-78 are “most similar.”
The Machine includes age as a factor, but not height or position. Despite that, players tend to get comps from the same position group.
- Shaedon Sharpe | 2022-23 | Portland Trail Blazers | Age: 19 — This was Sharpe’s rookie year, and it wasn’t bad for a teenager (PPA: 64). He was “about the same” in year two before improving to close to average the past couple seasons. One potentially important difference: Sharpe is a plus athlete with an array of stunning highlights. I think Riley had more craft in his game as a rookie than Sharpe did in year four, however.
- Malaki Branham | 2022-23 | San Antonio Spurs | Age: 19 — Branham’s age 20 season is next on the list, which is somewhat disconcerting because he didn’t get better. His 275 minutes with the Wizards last season was probably the best stretch of his career, and he managed just a 57 PPA — exactly what Riley posted last season. Branham’s rookie PPA was 53. Keep in mind, replacement level is 45.
- J.R. Smith | 2004-05 | New Orleans Hornets | Age: 19 — Smith was an athletic wing with some questionable decision-making. His most famous NBA moment was probably getting yelled at by LeBron James for dribbling out the clock in a tie game of the NBA Finals instead of initiating an action to attempt a potentially game-winning shot. That said, Smith wasn’t bad — he played 16 seasons, eight of which were in the average-plus range.
- Ja’Kobe Walter | 2024-25 | Toronto Raptors | Age: 20 — I’m sure I’ve seen Walter play, though I don’t have a distinct memory. The numbers say he improved in his second season — shooting a lot less but much better.
- Kevin Porter Jr. | 2019-20 | Cleveland Cavaliers | Age 19 — I think Porter’s name showed up as a comp for one Riley’s teammates. Porter’s talent was undeniable. His maturity and on-court decision-making were challenges, however. He’s on his fourth team in six seasons, and he’s actually been good for the Milwaukee Bucks. It seems improbable that Riley would have the kinds of off-court issues Porter did, and the Wizards are surely hoping he can make faster on-court progress.
Some of the honorable mentions are interesting, like Peja Stojakovic and Stephen Jackson. Riley doesn’t shoot it like Stojakovic, and he’s not a maniacal competitor like Jackson (at least not so far).
Next up: Tre Johnson
