The Dodgers know who their National League Division Series opponent will be.
It’s a familiar foe from postseasons of the not-too-distant past.
After developing a budding rivalry with the Atlanta Braves through playoff meetings in 2018 (a Dodgers NLDS win), 2020 (a memorable Dodgers comeback from a three-games-to-one deficit in the NL Championship Series) and 2021 (a Braves NLCS upset en route to their most World Series title), the two iconic franchises will square off again this fall, opening their best-of-five NLDS on Saturday at Dodger Stadium.
The Braves got there after a dramatic 2-1 wild-card series win over the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Dodgers were waiting, preparing themselves during a bye week for the beginning of their World Series three-peat quest.
The Braves got the better of the Dodgers in the regular season, going 5-1 in head-to-head matchups including a series sweep at Truist Park in August.
But the slate has been wiped clean now. The 100-win, second-seeded, two-time defending champion Dodgers will be the favorite.
With the NLDS now set, the California Post analyzed how the two clubs match up ahead of their latest October battle:
At the plate
Getting on base
There was no better offense in the majors during the first half of the season than the Dodgers (through June, they ranked first in scoring, batting average and OPS). But there were few bigger disappointments at the plate down the stretch (from July on, they ranked 15th in scoring, 14th in batting average and 11th in OPS).
Despite that, they still outpaced the Braves in most offensive categories. Atlanta finished the year eighth in scoring (4.58 runs per game, compared to the Dodgers’ 4.94 mark), 10th in batting average (.246 to the Dodgers’ .257) and 16th in OPS (.718 to the Dodgers’ .762).
Another key difference between the clubs: The Dodgers showed better plate discipline. They posted the league’s third-highest walk rate and on-base percentage (10.1% and .338, respectively) while the Braves had the third-lowest marks in each category (7.7% and .309).
The Braves still boast big stars. First baseman Matt Olson led the team with 41 home runs and a .823 OPS. Catcher/designated hitter Drake Baldwin had a breakout campaign with 25 home runs and a .817 OPS. Michael Harris II paced the club with a .294 average to go along with 26 long balls. Even a relatively down (and injury-plagued) season from former MVP outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. still saw him record a .796 OPS.
Those were their only four regulars, however, to post at least league-average production, according to OPS+. The Dodgers nearly doubled that total with seven, between Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Andy Pages, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernández. And that doesn’t even include the strides Kyle Tucker made late in the year, giving the Dodgers a deeper and more difficult lineup to navigate.
Edge: Dodgers
Power
This is one area where the Braves matched the Dodgers offensively, with both teams finishing the year in the Top 10 of the majors in home runs with 204 each.
That Dodgers’ total, however, is deceiving. During their second-half slump, they hit just 86 home runs in their final 76 games, ranking 18th in the majors in long balls and 14th in slugging percentage during that stretch.
Much of that decline was caused by Ohtani and Freeman’s injury-hampered form. Ohtani hit just eight home runs in his final 47 games, and none after Aug. 18 (at which point his right arm and left knee injuries grew noticeably worse). Freeman had just one in 66 games after July 4 (caused in part by a right knee problem that got his swing out of whack).
Thus, the Braves entered the playoffs possessing more of a power presence, with five players coming off 20-homer campaigns: Baldwin, Acuña, Olson, Harris and Ozzie Albies –– the latter three of whom all went deep in the Braves’ Game 3 clincher against the Phillies on Thursday.
Third baseman Austin Riley, who hit 19 homers in what was an otherwise disappointing regular season, also offered a reminder of his pop this week, when he hit a game-winning three-run bomb in Game 1 of their wild-card series defeat of the Phillies.
Edge: Braves
On the mound
Rotation
No one will be able to match the star power of the Dodgers’ starting pitching group, which is headlined by four ace-level arms: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (14-9, 2.53 ERA this year), Tarik Skubal (12-7, 2.72 ERA), Blake Snell (4-1, 1.90 ERA) and Tyler Glasnow (5-2, 3.53 ERA).
Last year, the Dodgers’ rotation carried them to a World Series title. And though Ohtani won’t be pitching because of his injuries, the deadline addition of Skubal has more than compensated.
That said, there are few pitchers more feared in the playoffs than Braves ace Chris Sale. He went 14-9 with a 2.16 ERA this season, pitched a five-hit shutout against the Dodgers in August, and struck out nine batters during a 6 ⅓-inning, three-run start against the Phillies in the wild-card round.
However, he also came out of the bullpen on Thursday to close out Game 3, putting 21 extra pitches on his arm going into the NLDS (when he likely won’t be able to start until at least Game 2). And beyond him, Atlanta has struggled to find another impact arm, relying heavily on their own deadline acquisition Tyler Mahle (who spun a seven-inning, one-run gem in the wild-card round).
Edge: Dodgers
Bullpen
It was a rollercoaster season for the Dodgers’ bullpen. It set a franchise record with a 38-inning scoreless streak in May. It posted a 4.95 ERA over the next two months, eighth-worst in the majors in that stretch. Then, it finished the year with a 3.20 mark in August and September, combining for the most wins above replacement (according to Fangraphs) over that period.
That late-season surge puts the relief corps in a seemingly strong spot now. Tanner Scott and Roki Sasaki are both closer options. Evan Phillips, Brock Stewart and Alex Vesia are prime setup men, with Vesia offering a left-handed option. Edwin Díaz has re-emerged as another leverage arm, with a strong close to an otherwise dismal debut Dodgers campaign. Kris Bubic and Justin Wrobleski can take down multiple innings, if needed. What was a critical weakness last October might now be an underrated strength.
The Braves’ bullpen was steadier over the course of the year, finishing with the fourth-best ERA (3.44) among all MLB relief units.
Closer Raisel Iglesias was key to that success, going 34-for-37 in save opportunities with a 2.55 ERA. Young flame-thrower Didier Fuentes and left-handers Dylan Lee and Dylan Dodd were also important leverage options. And the recent return of top offseason signing Robert Suarez from a second-half elbow injury has only further bolstered the group.
Edge: Even
In the field
Defense
The Braves were a top-five overall defense by both defensive runs saved and outs above average this year, with few weaknesses in their preferred starting lineup.
Acuña is a threat in right field, while Harris is a plus-glove in center. Riley and Olson were decent at the corners of the infield. Albies has formed a strong middle-infield combination at second base with shortstop Ha-Seong Kim and Mauricio Dubón.
The Dodgers were more of a mixed bag defensively. Pages has become perhaps the best center fielder in the sport outside of Pete Crow-Armstrong, but is flanked by two liabilities in Hernández and Tucker. Ditto on the infield, where Betts and Tommy Edman have been a good (though not flawless) double-play duo, but Freeman and Muncy have endured more ups and downs.
Edge: Braves
Base-running
Neither team was overly aggressive on the bases, with the Braves ranking 23rd in steals (83 on 106 attempts) and the Dodgers 28th (72 of 93).
Acuña led Atlanta with 21 steals, but has not been nearly the running threat he was in 2023 when he led the majors with 73 stolen bags. Ohtani has undergone a similar transformation since his 50/50 campaign in 2024, swiping just 11 bases this season (which was still just two off Pages’ team lead of 13).
Edge: Even
Manager
No modern manager has more postseason experience –– or success –– than Dave Roberts, who will be trying to become the seventh skipper in MLB history with four World Series titles (to go along with his all-time best regular-season winning percentage).
Walt Weiss, on the other hand, returned to the top step this year for the first time since serving as Rockies manager from 2013-2016, getting promoted from his bench coach role to replace the retired Brian Snitker. This week’s wild-card series represented his first postseason experience in the role.
Edge: Dodgers
Intangibles
Both clubs have ample postseason experience amongst their roster. But only the Dodgers have been able to consistently produce October success. The Braves did win a World Series in 2021, of course, knocking out the Dodgers along the way. But only three key players from that squad remain (Albies, Riley, Acuña). And their leader from that season, Freeman, now plays for the Dodgers.
Edge: Dodgers
