ATLANTA, GA - APRIL 24: Michael Harris II #23 of the Atlanta Braves celebrates after hitting a two-run double in the sixth inning during the game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on Friday, April 24, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kathryn Skeean/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
It’s getaway day for the Atlanta Braves, but not before one last regular season contest against the Philadelphia Phillies. With the series secure, the Braves have the opportunity to make it a truly nightmarish weekend for our NL East foes and break out the brooms this afternoon.
There are some changes to the lineup for Walt Weiss’ club, but the name atop the batting order made me laugh. We’ve been let down in 2026 with the first-world complaint of not being able to complete a sweep in a series finale. But Michael Harris II leading off and in line to get the most at-bats off of RHP Andrew Painter is a deliberate choice – no foot off the gas here.
As noted in the preview, Michael has only faced Painter thrice, but is rocking that 1.000 / 2.333 / 3.333 slash line. A late scratch on April 24, Mike was clutch incarnate with a pinch-hit, two-out, two-RBI double off Painter to give the Braves the lead in an eventual Atlanta win. Let’s hoping he can add to his legend more here this afternoon.
Ronald Acuña Jr. will still bat second but get a day off from the field today. Matt Olson is working his way out of his slump with some promising signs and will continue to in the three-hole, but that glove is still gold at first base. Drake Baldwin will catch for Grant Holmes and hit cleanup. Mauricio Dubón will follow and man left field. Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley are at their usual bases and hitting sixth and seventh, respectively. Mike Yastrzemski returns to the lineup after going 3-for-3 with a walk in Friday’s showdown. Ha-Seong Kim will complete the infield at shortstop and hit ninth.
They optioned reliever Grant Holman to reinstate LHP Tanner Banks from the injured list, giving their beleagured bullpen a fresh arm and depriving us of a Grant Holmes vs. Grant Holman matchup.
This series has given us electric and heartburn-inducing moments as well as as some rare enjoyable AND comfortable baseball. What does today’s matinee bring? Hopefully, some brooms. First pitch for Braves-Phillies is at 1:35 pm ET.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JUNE 25: Mj Melendez #1 of the New York Mets at bat during the fourth inning at Citi Field on June 25, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Adam Hunger/Getty Images) | Getty Images
A real barn burner, but another Syracuse win. Eight different Mets patched it together on the mound, and they did just enough to support the offense. MJ Melendez followed up his four hit night with two more long balls. Billy Amick added his sixth at Triple-A (though he’s batting only .221). Emilien Pitre had two more hits and a walk to get his OPS back above .800 at the level. It’s been a loss of a season for the organization across most levels but there are some interesting things happening in the minors down the stretch here.
The offense had more errors than they had runs. They had nearly as many caught stealings as they had hits. Obviously not what you want. Gabe Davis continues to look like a savvy trade acquisition though, so that’s a plus.
In Friday’s episode of the “Tom Tolbert Show,” Kerr joined his former college teammate at Arizona to discuss the Warriors’ recruitment of James and the rather awkward dilemma it created for many in Dub Nation.
“I don’t think it’s exactly earth-shattering news, or I don’t think I’ll get fined for saying, like, it never really felt like he was coming here,” Kerr told Tolbert. “To me, it was more speculation than anything. I think we would have had a much better sense that, you know, something was going to happen.
“It’s been really interesting, though, hearing fans around the Bay — like, you know, people will randomly come up to me and say, ‘I’m glad we didn’t get LeBron.’ And I’m like, ‘Really?’ And they’re like, ‘Yeah, it’s like he’s not supposed to be on our team. He’s a rival.’ And I get that as a sports fan. It’d be like, you know, should Magic [Johnson] and [Larry] Bird have played on the same team?
“So, I mean, just as a coach and having coached him in the Olympics — sign me up. … But it’s been interesting hearing our fans. I think fans, you know, because of the emotional connection you have to your team and rivalries and all that stuff, I think it was just a weird thought. That’s the reaction I’m getting from a lot of people.”
On one hand, the thought of James playing with Steph Curry is mouth-watering to most basketball fans, especially after they teamed up to win gold at the Paris 2024 Olympics with Kerr as the coach.
But at the same time, as Kerr acknowledged, it likely would have been weird for Warriors fans, who have seen James has a primary rival for over a decade.
Maybe that latter factor played into James’ decision not to join Golden State in the end — and possibly his lack of perceived interest in the first place.
Last season, Alex Newhook played the first 17 games alongside Oliver Kapanen and Ivan Demidov, but then he got injured, and the Montreal Canadiens faced a dilemma. Martin St-Louis first tried to put Kirby Dach on that line, but the experiment was short-lived; after just one game, he paired Juraj Slafkovsky with the two rookies, with great results. It worked because that line needed some grit, some forecheck, a big body that didn’t fear going into traffic.
However, taking Slafkovsky away from the first line wasn’t great, and Dach, Samuel Bolduc and Alexandre Texier all had the opportunity to play with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield, but none of them play the game like Slafkovsky does, and the results weren’t great. Shortly after Newhook returned, the big Slovak was put back on the top line because that’s the combination that gets the best out of the team’s best players.
However, the fact that Slafkovsky worked so well on the second line made Kent Hughes look for another big-bodied top-six forward. He reportedly tried to acquire Matthew Knies from the Toronto Maple Leafs, but it didn't work. This summer, he set his sights on Kirill Marchenko from the Columbus Blue Jackets, but Don Waddell doesn’t want a package centered on futures for his top player, and the price tag promises to be hefty.
Then, when the Anaheim Ducks found themselves in salary cap hell thanks to the Philadelphia Flyers signing Leo Carlsson to an offer sheet, they were forced to cut ties with Chris Kreider. Why? Because they needed more than $9 million to sign RFA Cutter Gauthier. While Kreider is already 35, he’s still a productive top-six forward in the NHL and one who plays exactly the style of hockey the second line needs. Kreider is the low-cost solution to the fact that Hughes and co. can’t clone Slafkovsky. Details on the bonus linked to the contract have now emerged on Puckpedia, and it's important to remember that the bonus money can carry over to next season if the Habs are short on cap space.
The #GoHabsGo signed Chris Kreider to 1 year deal:
Salary 850K Signing Bonus 1.3M Performance bonuses 3.25M: *2M @ 10 games played *250K each @ 10/20/30 Goals scored *500K @ 40 Goals Scored
As things stand, the Canadiens still have $7.6 million in cap space, but they still have to unsigned RFA in Zach Bolduc and Arber Xhekaj. With Kreider now signed, could the Canadiens entertain the idea of trading Bolduc in a deal for Marchenko? Yes, they could, but would an offer that includes two roster players like Bolduc and center Oliver Kapanen be enough to tempt Waddell? Both have potential, but do they have enough to convince Waddell to roll the dice and part with his prized asset? That’s far from certain.
In the meantime, however, the Kreider signing is great news for Canadiens fans. Not only does he fill a need in the lineup, but he’s a free agent who chose to come to Montreal, despite the fact that he has long been hated by the fan base for events that need not be discussed again. Kreider wanted to be back in the Eastern Conference, and he wanted to join a team with a legitimate chance to win the Stanley Cup; for him, that’s the Canadiens. Hughes, Jeff Gorton, and St-Louis have made Montreal a destination free agents want to come to. Despite the taxes, the weather, and the language, if you build it, they will come. That doesn’t just apply to the baseball movie Field of Dreams; it also applies to a winning team.
As for those worried the Canadiens are holding a grudge over what happened in 2014, none of the players from 2014 are still with the team. Brendan Gallagher was the last one. It’s been 12 years, and if Hughes, Gorton, and St-Louis feel bringing Kreider on is the right move, it means they believe it’s time for fans to move on from what happened. Bringing Kreider on is not akin to bringing in Mark Scheifele, who once destroyed Jake Evans with a dangerous high hit. Evans is still on the team, and so are many players who skated in that 2021 series against the Winnipeg Jets.
Montreal fans know their hockey well enough to move past the grudge. According to our instant poll, which only had 95 voters, 85% of the fans polled were happy with the move last night, and that was before they had time to process it. They can appreciate what Kreider brings to the table, even though he cost them a chance to reach the Stanley Cup Final in 2014. Besides, would there be a better way to make amends than signing with the Habs and helping them to move past the last hurdle? Like him or not, Kreider is a proven playoff performer, one who can elevate his game in the spring and lead the young Canadiens into battle. The Habs lost Brendan Gallagher this summer, so an influx of experience and leadership certainly won’t hurt.
BRONX, NY - SEPTEMBER 12: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees at bat during the game against the NNew York Mets on September 12, 2026 at Yankee Stadium in the Borough of the Bronx, New York. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Consistency should not lower appreciation for what the Yankees have accomplished over the last decade-plus, and there is no better time than in a late-season series against the Mets to point that out. The Mets have been throwing money at their problems for a few years now, and somehow new problems keep coming up. That advantage that benefits both of these teams only goes so far, and if we look back on their campaigns in 2026, it’s interesting to see how each team handled the absence of their top player.
Juan Soto and Aaron Judge have combined to miss 136 games this season, a total of 51 for Soto and a whopping 85 for Judge. Although each offense is unique, it is reasonable to argue that the burden of the team’s production placed on these two is relatively similar. Judge theoretically should mean as much to the Yankees’ attack as Soto means to the Mets.
Before getting into the details, the one number that actually counts leans heavily in favor of the Yankees, as they went a very respectable 46-39 without Judge on the field in 2026. Meanwhile, the Mets basically owe their status as a below-.500 club and complete irrelevance in the NL playoff picture to Soto’s absence, possessing a putrid 20-31 record without their star hitter.
Strictly speaking, in terms of pure offensive production, the gap between these two teams in 2026 is not as large as the one that their record would seem to indicate. The Mets entered play on Saturday with a 97 OPS+, slightly worse than the Yankees’ 100 mark. Accounting strictly for the time without these gigantic hitters, the Yankees had a .684 OPS without Judge, while the Mets were at .673 without Soto. Part of what has hindered the Mets’ season even further is that Francisco Lindor has also missed a healthy chunk of time, playing only 90 games to this point — although we should note that this doesn’t create an incredible disparity in the comparison between the time without Judge and Soto since there was minimal overlap in the missed time of the two Mets stars.
It’d be a neat narrative if we could come here and talk about how the Yankees’ offense dealt with missing Judge in a far superior manner than the Mets handled Soto’s absence. That isn’t necessarily the case, even with the best efforts of Ben Rice. The Yankees’ offense without Judge had to lean heavily on their pitching staff to get those wins, often scoring just barely enough to make it. Only one of these pitching staffs possesses the tools to take over and carry a team, and the numbers back that up. It’s not the full picture, but the Mets accumulated a 4.24 ERA in the 51 games Soto didn’t appear in while the Yankees had an earned run average a full run lower at 3.22 when Judge was out.
Even with Soto potentially available for all of their games, the Mets probably didn’t have enough for a meaningful fight in the National League — and the Yankees possibly could have found their way to the postseason even without Judge for a single game. The discrepancy in these two teams’ records would seem to suggest that at least for 2026, the Mets are more reliant on Soto than the Yankees are on Judge. That’s not to say they shouldn’t be happy to have number 99 back; we shouldn’t lose sight of what this team accomplished in his absence and how much worse it could’ve been. After all, just look at the Mets.
WEST PALM BEACH, FLORIDA - MARCH 19, 2026: Will Bush #56 of the Houston Astros bats during the second inning of a spring training Spring Breakout game against the Miami Marlins at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches on March 19, 2026 in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.
AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (71-71) lost 3-2 (BOX SCORE)
Hendrickson started for Sugar Land and went 7 innings allowing 3 runs, all in the third, while striking out 7 batters. The Sugar Land offense got on the board in the 5th inning on a Ferreras 2 run single. Roa tossed a scoreless 8th inning but the offense was unable to score again and Sugar Land fell 3-2.
Christian Roa, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (62-75) lost 6-1 (BOX SCORE)
Hicks got the start for the Hooks and went 4.2 innings but struggled allowing 6 runs on 9 hits. The Hooks offense got on the board in the 5th inning on a Bush solo home run. The bullpen tossed 3.1 scoreless innings but the offense was quiet the rest of the way as the Hooks fell 6-1.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MARCH 09: Ziaire Williams #1 of the Brooklyn Nets reacts during the second half against the Memphis Grizzlies at Barclays Center on March 09, 2026 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. The Nets won 126-115. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) | Getty Images
With the NBA season fast approaching, the Lakers have numerous lineup decisions to iron out. None is more immediate than the starting lineup.
This can shift during the season, but four out of five are likely locked in with Luka Dončić, Austin Reaves, Quentin Grimes, and Walker Kessler.
The fifth can go in a multitude of directions, whether it’s an offensive-leaning spacing four with Sandro Mamukelashvili, the high defensive pedigree vet in Matisse Thybulle or an uber-athletic defender looking for a fresh start.
For the latter, enter Ziaire Williams, who has the highest-upside wing profile on the team and a skill set that matches what the Lakers desperately need.
Williams enters his sixth season in the league, bouncing around from being the No. 10 pick with the Grizzlies to trying to find a home with the Nets. Listed at 6’9” with a 6’10” wingspan, he has intriguing tools as a potential disruptor.
Tools mean nothing without the desire to use them, though. As is the case with most young players, the defensive concentration comes in flashes. The tanking Nets won 46 total games in the two years Williams was on the roster, which isn’t exactly the environment where high energy and defensive focus are cultivated.
When locked in, Williams showed a level of versatility left for the best defenders in the league. Displaying good technique and quickness navigating screens on the perimeter, Brooklyn tagged him on top playmakers where he held his own.
In the clip below, he’s matched with Jalen Brunson at the top of the key. Defending a ball screen, the reach-in gives up the first step. He quickly recovers, avoids the foul while chasing behind and cleanly blocks the shot to ignite the break the other way.
While composure and solid fundamentals are critical, Williams brings athletic defensive playmaking to a team lacking it elsewhere. His length allowed him to play back on ball handlers and still recover in time to block 3-point attempts.
He collected just 0.4 blocks per game but was always alert and opportunistic, including coming over for weakside denials with his quick-twitch jump.
Great hands and excellent timing cause havoc for opposing offenses. In the clip below, he waits for Kevin Durant to turn his head before quickly swiping the ball free and heading the other way.
Williams gets a ton of unexpected steals in the backcourt, patiently waiting for the offense to relax and bring their guard down. The chaos creator led the Nets with 3.2 deflections per game, a number that would have led the Lakers as well.
With a cluster of wings vying for minutes, defense will get Williams on the floor, while offense will determine whether he stays.
It’s no secret how the Lakers offense will run. Luka and Reaves will eat a majority of the offensive possessions and shoulder the bulk of playmaking. Whatever is left will go to Grimes and Kessler for finishing or short roll touches.
The presumed fifth starter will need to be productive without any offense running through them. Years removed from his original draft-night potential, this role as a contributor to high-level winning fits his archetype.
As is typical for any supporting player in the modern NBA, it starts and ends with the ability to make an open 3-point shot. Although the soon-to-be 25-year-old has never shot above 34% from 3-point range, as he did last season, there is hope he can eventually find the range.
Williams has taken over four attempts from behind the arc per game over the last two seasons, revealing little apprehension. Last year, he hit 41% on wide-open attempts, tracked with a defender six plus feet away.
Attaining a dependable jumper, even slightly, not only raises the impact he makes on the other end but opens up the room to reveal his timely cutting, attacking the basket or lobs his new guards love to throw.
One place athletic wings with questionable jumpers end up around the league is the dunker spot. It’s a tougher place to rotate help to and it opens the door for quick slips behind the defense.
Watch below as he’s stationed in the corner and slides toward the rim as the action unfolds. The short roll pass opens the three-on-two advantage, leading to the lob at the basket.
In the clip below, he sets an off-ball screen. He quickly notices the defense pre-switching the action and correctly counters by slipping to the basket. Williams gets on his trampoline for the athletic finish over contesting Aaron Gordon.
Paired with young, unproven ball handlers, Williams was still in the efficient 81st percentile on low volume as a cutter and finished 66% of his attempts at the basket last year.
He’s a prototypical 3-and-D player if the shot comes around, with a game in hopes of mirroring successful players such as Derick Jones Jr.
While he’s recently said all the right things, questions remain about a shaky jumper and defensive engagement. If Williams can put the offense together and maintain his defensive focus, he can find himself in line for many of the available minutes left on the team.
New Test head coach’s arrival and Root’s calming influence as captain add to promising signs in the post-Stokes era
As Joe Root calmly ran the rule over the Test summer and reeled off the ways in which it had been “chaos”, “unusual” and “unsettling” for England, it felt telling that first among them was Ben Stokes calling time on his international career during a match and a series that were both still live at the time.
Cricketers announcing their retirement mid-game is nothing new. Heather Knight went on to do the same during the women’s Test at Lord’s two weeks later. Root is also too loyal to Stokes to question openly whether that scene-stealing exit before New Zealand’s win at Trent Bridge was entirely in keeping with his call for “selfless cricketers” four years earlier.
SCOTTSDALE, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 26: Spencer Bivens #76 of the San Francisco Giants warms up during the third inning of the spring training game against the Colorado Rockies at Scottsdale Stadium on February 26, 2026 in Scottsdale, Arizona. (Photo by Mike Christy/Getty Images) | Getty Images
When you’re far back in the standings and looking to next year, the last few weeks of the season can be an audition of sorts. The Royals have brought in a number of different pitchers in the last two months, finding success with guys like Randy Dobnak, Nate Pearson, Craig Kimbrel, and Anthony Gose. On Saturday, they added to their tryouts by announcing they have claimed pitcher Spencer Bivens off waivers from the Giants, and had optioned him to Triple-A Omaha.
The 32-year-old right-hander has spent parts of the last three seasons with the Giants. He has made 85 appearances, all in relief, with a 4.08 ERA. He has a low strikeout rate of just 7.1 per-nine-innings in his career, with a decent walk rate of 2.7. He spent most of this year in the minors, with a 4.92 ERA in 75 innings at Triple-A, making just four appearances with the Giants where he gave up ten runs in five innings.
Bivens had a long road to get to the big leagues. He grew up in State College, Pennsylvania, and after a stint at Louisburg College, he transferred to Penn State. He was kicked off the team for failing a drug test however, and ended up at Rogers State. He played in several independent leagues after college, including some time in France. In 2022, he signed with the Giants and made his MLB debut in 2024. In 2025, he made the Opening Day roster and pitched in 54 games with the team, posting a 4.00 ERA. The team designated him for assignment last week to claim pitcher Duncan Davitt off waivers from the Braves.
Bivens is a sinker/slider pitcher with a 52.8 percent groundball rate last year. In 2025, he tied for the 12th-most multi-inning relief appearances in baseball with 26.
Bivens takes up the last open spot on the 40-man roster, so no other move is necessary. He has one more option year after 2026.
The Buffalo Sabres have been considered to have one of the deepest prospect pools in the NHL, which is in part due to them selecting high in recent drafts because of their not qualifying for the playoffs. The Sabres have displayed an eye for talent, and the organization’s developmental model has begun to yield results, with 2023 first rounder Zach Benson making an impact in the playoffs, and 2024 top pick Konsta Helenius appearing as one of the AHL’s top prospects the last two seasons.
Leading up to the opening of training camp in mid-September, we will look at the club's top 40 prospects. These players are all 25 years old or younger, whose rights are currently held by the Sabres or are on AHL or NHL deals, and have played less than 82 NHL games.
As we complete our look at the Sabres prospects on the opening day of the Sabres Prospects Showcase at LECOM Harborcenter, the most immediate and potential upside comes from Helenius, who likely was held back from playing more in the NHL last season by the club not wanting to burn the first year of his three-year entry-level contract.
The young Finn was the Sabres first-round pick (14th overall) at the 2024 NHL Draft in Las Vegas after an impressive season in the SM-Liiga and internationally for his country at three levels. Helenius excelled at the junior level at the age of 16 and played 33 games against adult competition, and played at the Under-18’s in 2023.
Where will Connor Hellebuyck end up?
At 17, he had 36 points (14 goals, 22 assists) in 51 games for Jukurit, seven points in five games at the Under-18’s, played seven games at the IIHF World Juniors in Sweden, and saw limited action at the World Championships in May 2024. The Sabres were fortunate to have Helenius fall to them at 14th overall after many draft analysts labeled him nearly pro-ready after playing in Liiga, for Finland at the Under-18’s, World Junior Championships, and World Championships.
Helenius adjusted well in his first season in North America, with 35 points (14 goals, 21 assists) in 65 games with the Rochester Americans, and six points (3 goals, 3 assists) in eight playoff games, earning him a spot on the AHL’s Top Prospects Team.
At the 2025 World Junior, he posted six assists in seven games, as Finland won the silver medal. Last season, the 20-year-old nearly doubled his offensive output in Rochester, earning a second straight Top Prospects nod by averaging a point-per-game (21 goals, 42 assists in 63 games) with the Amerks.
He was so valuable to Rochester that GM Jarmo Kekalainen did not release him to his country for the 2026 World Juniors, and in January, he was called up to make his NHL debut in mid-January. Helenius played nine games before the NHL Olympic break, when he was sent back to the AHL, and he was not recalled until after the Amerks were eliminated from the Calder Cup Playoffs in April. In the second round series against Montreal, the youngster replaced injured veteran Sam Carrick for Game 4, and in the final four games of the series scored a pair of goals and seemed unfazed by the high-pressure situation.
It is expected that Helenius will start the season in the NHL, and is being depended on to pick up some of the scoring slack created by the departure of Alex Tuch.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 08: Gabriel Hughes #43 of the Colorado Rockies delivers a pitch in the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on September 08, 2026 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Good Sunday morning, Purple Row!
In the final game of a road trip that can only be described as “disastrous,” today, the Colorado Rockies (55-93) will look to take the final game of a three-game stand against the Detroit Tigers (69-79).
Colorado has gone 25-52 on the road this season, the worst road record in the Majors. The Rockies have lost six straight games, one shy of their longest losing streak of the season (Aug. 17-24).
In addition, Colorado is in the midst of a 13-day stretch without an off-day, going 0-5 in the stretch so far. The Rockies need to go 8-6 in the remaining 14 games to avoid their fourth consecutive 100-loss season.
But to the game at hand.
Starting for the Rockies is Gabriel Hughes. This will be his 13th start for the Rockies in 2026.
The righty has a 5.81 ERA in 57.1 IP. He’s struck out 48, walked 21, and given up five home runs. Hughes has a 1.38 WHIP. Notably, Hughes is still in the hunt for his first MLB win.
Taking the mound for the Tigers will be RHP Jackson Jobe.
Currently, he has an ERA of 4.45 in 28.1 IP. He’s struck out 26 while giving up 12 walks and five home runs with a 1.41 WHIP.
And now to the details.
First Pitch: 10:10 pm AM (You read that correctly.)
Which Brisbane turns up on any given day can be a mystery but after a qualifying final wake-up call they were too good for Adelaide in every area
They’re the little girl with the little curl. When they’re bad, the Brisbane Lions are horrid. When they’re good, they’re unstoppable. There’s a familiar pattern to how this plays out. They need a wound, a spur, a thrashing. They need a blast from the coach, usually delivered via the press conference. They need a game at the Gabba or the MCG, not a snoozer at the Docklands, or Carrara or the Sydney Showgrounds. And most of all, they need to know that they’ll be eliminated if they lose.
They need to be fully invested, right from the opening minute. There’s usually an early pressure act that they celebrate collectively – a smother, a lunging spoil, the type of thing that had been entirely absent the week before. There’s usually a high pressure rating, a measure that is as inexplicable as the score review system, but which is always a good indication of what side of the bed the Lions have woken up on.
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - SEPTEMBER 6: Aaron Nola #27 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws a pitch in the top of the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park on September 6, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It’s been a good season for Aaron Nola. Especially in the second half, he’s looked solid and reliable; a comforting return to form, like a rerun of a favorite TV show. There is one thing that’s still plagued him, though, a thorn that he can’t quite pull out of his paw: the homers. The home run has seemed like an almost ubiquitous part of the Nola start. His 34 gopher balls surrendered are the most league-wide, tied with Jeffrey Springs, and one ahead of Shota Imanaga. The homer problem (the downtowner dilemma, the tater trouble, the four-bagger fretting), has gone on for far too long to be dismissed as happenstance. It is, unfortunately, as real as the Phanatic’s green fur. Case in point: I drafted this article on Friday afternoon, just prior to Nola’s start, hoping I wouldn’t have to rewrite any of it; it is now Saturday evening and I am rewriting it to account for the two homers he surrendered. That being said, what if he’s been at least a little unlucky?
Nola has allowed 34 homers this season, but per Statcast’s numbers, his expected number of homers allowed is 27.3 (that’s with the adjusted model, which accounts for environmental variables, and which we’ll use elsewhere in this article; it’s 30.4 if you’re accounting for trajectory only). That puts him at 6.7 homers above expected in 2026, second-most league-wide. Even if his actual homer total was identical to the expected, he’d still be one of the most-homer prone pitchers in baseball this season; he’d just rank fourth instead of first. Still, that might suggest that the homer problem isn’t quite as bad as it’s seemed in 2026.
Then again, if you look at the one pitcher who has a a greater gap between his actual homers surrendered and expected homers surrendered, it’s Springs, who’s allowed the same number of actual homers as Nola. And the pitcher who’s got the third-biggest gap in that regard is Imanaga. That stands to reason: the more prone you are to surrendering the sort of long ball that can become a homer, the more prone you’ll be to surrendering the sort of borderline ball that might become a homer and might not become one, with the vagaries of ballpark design and environment determining its fate. So while we can say that Nola’s been a little unlucky, homer-wise, I don’t think it’d be quite right to suggest that the gap between his expected and actual homer stats is purely or even primarily the result of misfortune. He really does have a genuine homer issue.
(It’s perhaps worth noting here that of all the pitchers who have allowed at least 20 dingers this season, Nola has the lowest percentage, 2o.6, of what Statcast refers to as No Doubters— homers that would be homers no matter which ballpark they’re born in. Compare to Imanaga’s 29.4%, or Springs’ 42.4%. I’m not convinced that it’s a terribly meaningful fact, but I do find it curious).
That being said, there is one way in which Nola is arguably unlucky: he plays half his games at the third homer-happiest park in baseball, per Park Factors, and the one most prone to allowing homers to the lefties who already have the platoon advantage over him. It’s not just the dimensions of CBP, either: per Statcast, Citizens Bank Park ranks ninth among MLB ballparks for extra distance added to balls by the effects of the weather, environment, etc.
I say this is arguably unlucky because this wasn’t really luck; he chose to resign with the team that calls Citizens Bank Park home. Then again, I suppose you could argue that luck was involved given that he had no say in where he was drafted, which eventually set up the sequence of events that led to him choosing to resign with the incumbent club. But that’s getting awfully philosophical. Speaking of philosophical, let’s imagine some hypotheticals.
Imagine an alternate world in which Nola pitches every one of his starts in Boston (perhaps a dystopian future in which only Boston remains, perhaps a world in which some sort of New England envy results in every ballclub directly copying the dimensions and environment of famed Fenway, it doesn’t matter). That hypothetical Boston Nola would have allowed only 15 homers this year. Now imagine if only Philadelphia existed. Most people, we can all agree, would be happier in such a world. But Aaron Nola would not: he’d have allowed 35 homers in this alternate All-Philly 2026, one more than he actually has. And that is the only park that would produce such an effect: place all his starts in any other ballpark, and he allows fewer gopher balls than the real Nola has. Citizens Bank Park is a wonderful place for everyone, except for Braves fans, Mets fans, and homer-prone pitchers.
As an example: take this homer Jake Burger hit against Nola in his first start of the season:
That’s obviously an unlucky break for Nola: just a few inches to the left and it would be foul, with no harm done other than some induced heartburn. But it’s even more unlucky than it appears: if it had been hit in any other ballpark in baseball, it wouldn’t have been a home run (although that’s by Statcast’s environment-adjusted model; per the trajectory-only model it would’ve been a dinger in 17 of 30 parks).
And this one, hit by Francisco Alvarez back in July, was even more unlucky for Nola.
It barely cleared the wall at CBP, and it wouldn’t have been gone at any other park. Even if we use the trajectory-only model, it still would’ve been gone in only two other parks.
But the most unlucky homer of all was probably this one, hit by Luke Keaschall at the Field of Dreams game:
If that game was played at any standard big league ballpark, that ball stays in the yard rather than finding a happy home in the corn.
Any pitcher in the league, of course, has similar stories, of homers that would’ve ended as harmless fly balls if the location had been different, or if it had been a few degrees cooler, or if the wind hadn’t been blowing in quite that direction. Betteridge’s Law of Headlines applies here: Nola’s homer problem isn’t the result of bad luck. Misfortune may have resulted in it looking slightly worse than it really is, but the underlying problem is real. But so is Nola’s return to form this season, and what he’s done for the 2026 Phils. We ought to feel lucky to have him.
WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 12: Andrew Alvarez #54 of the Washington Nationals looks on during the game between the Los Angeles Angels and the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on Saturday, September 12, 2026 in Washington, District of Columbia. (Photo by Alyssa McDaniel/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
We all know that Cade Cavalli is a top of the rotation arm who offers Nats fans a glimpse of what quality pitching looks like. However, there is another arm that is emerging behind him that is doing that as well. Andrew Alvarez is not Cade Cavalli, but he has been rock solid and is only getting better as the season goes along.
Yesterday, Alvarez had the best start of his career and made a statement that he should be in the rotation next year. The 27 year old lefty threw 7 scoreless innings, allowing 1 hit while striking out 8 and walking 4. It was the first time he completed 7 innings in his MLB career and a continuation of the great work he has done lately.
Andrew Alvarez #Nationals (7IP 1H 0R 4BB 8K ND vs. LAA) is Saturday’s Box-Toppers Player of the Day.
Also: • Bryan Woo maintains 6th overall (17.4 B-T points) • Mason Miller now has 4th-highest B-T pt total for closer since 1998
Honestly, we saw everything that makes Alvarez an effective pitcher. Against an all right-handed lineup, Alvarez’s curveball was superb. He got 10 whiffs on 20 swings with his curve and when batters did make contact, it was not very hard. The curveball was the signature piece of his arsenal, but showed his fastball enough to keep hitters honest.
There were times where he was nibbling too much early in the game. In fact, all four of his walks came in the first two innings. However, the southpaw settled in and started dominating the Halos lineup. He is proving that he belongs in the rotation moving forward.
Alvarez was not a hyped prospect at all, which makes his success even more remarkable. Across 102 innings this season, Alvarez has a 3.35 ERA with 99 strikeouts. He has also racked up 2.3 fWAR and 2.4 bWAR. Both of those numbers are actually better than Jake Bennett, who the Nats infamously traded away last offseason. Alvarez has not gotten the hype that Bennett has but he has arguably been more effective.
Final line for Andrew Alvarez: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 8 K. It was unclear what his role would look like coming into the season. We now have a 100-inning sample that says he can work around walks and limit damage. ERA: 3.38.
Like Cavalli, we are also seeing Alvarez improve down the stretch. Since the start of August, Alvarez has a 2.44 ERA in 44.1 innings across 8 starts. For me, the most encouraging part is the innings total. In this stretch, he is averaging over 5.5 innings per start. A big concern with Alvarez is that he does not go deep into games, but he is answering those questions.
Moving forward, what should we expect from Alvarez? Well, the advanced stats are somewhat split on the lefty. His FIP is actually lower than his ERA at 3.27. However, his xERA of 4.16 is slightly less encouraging. His xFIP sits somewhere in the middle at 3.80.
If Alvarez can settle in as a back of the rotation arm who has an ERA somewhere in the high 3’s, that would be a big organizational win. With the quality of his breaking balls, there is certainly a path to doing that.
The walks are the one thing I am concerned about though. Alvarez really emphasizes avoiding the middle of the plate. However, that can lead to nibbling. His 11% walk rate is proof of that. While this approach does lead to walks, it does help him keep the ball in the yard. Alvarez has allowed just 5 homers in 102 innings, which is very low.
We will have to see if he can sustain this level of home run avoidance over a larger sample, but he does things that suggest he can somewhat maintain this. His ground ball rate of 49.3% is in the 83rd percentile and his 5.4% barrel rate allowed is in the 84th percentile. Keeping the ball on the ground and off the barrel leads to fewer homers.
With how he has pitched, I think Andrew Alvarez has locked up a rotation spot. We still have to see if he can keep it long term, but he will be one of the team’s 5 best options next year. He is just too crafty and too effective.
What an outing for Andrew Alvarez. He is grabbing a rotation spot for 2027 with these kinds of performances
Guys like Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker make me slightly hesitant to go all-in on Alvarez, but you have to love what you are seeing. To be fair to Alvarez, Irvin and Parker never had seasons quite like this either.
I do not think Alvarez has the fastball quality to be in the front 3 of a rotation. However, you can do a lot worse than him in the back of a rotation. His breaking balls are so sharp and he keeps the ball in the yard. He can give you 5 solid innings on a consistent basis, and lately he is showing that he can go further than that as well.
It has not been a pretty year for Nats pitching, but we have found a couple answers in the rotation. Cade Cavalli looks like a top of the rotation starter and Andrew Alvarez is now emerging as a number 4. I have always had some lingering doubts about Alvarez, but he just keeps proving me wrong.
