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Welcome to week 7 of our 2026 NL Central Power Rankings — let’s rank some teams!

1. Chicago Cubs (27-14); 5-2 this week; 86.5% chance to make postseason (FanGraphs)

The Cubs stayed hot this week, stretching their win streak to 10 with a four-game sweep of the Reds before finally losing over the weekend, dropping two of three against the Rangers in Texas.

Michael Conforto and Seiya Suzuki led the offense with two homers each this week, with one of Conforto’s coming as a walk-off winner against the Reds. Conforto added three doubles and three walks, hitting .500/.588/1.143 for the week. Michael Busch led the team with eight hits, including a homer, while Pete Crow-Armstrong had seven hits, including a homer.

Shota Imanaga picked up the win with 10 strikeouts and just one run allowed across six innings in his start this week, while Ryan Rolison picked up a pair of wins in relief, striking out five over 2 1/3 innings. Javier Assad totaled five scoreless innings in two relief outings, earning a win and striking out two. Phil Maton, Ethan Roberts, and Trent Thornton also had scoreless weeks for the bullpen.

After an off day on Monday, the Cubs continue the road trip in Atlanta against the Braves before returning to Chicago for the weekend, where they’ll play on the “road” against the White Sox on the South Side.

2. Milwaukee Brewers (22-16); 4-1 this week; 55.8% chance to make postseason

The Brewers had a great week, splitting two games with the Cardinals on each side of a rainout Tuesday before sweeping a three-game set against the Yankees over the weekend, stretching their win streak to four.

Brice Turang remains one of the best hitters in the league, as he led the team with two homers this week, including a walk-off homer on Sunday afternoon against New York. The return of Jackson Chourio and Andrew Vaughn also loomed large this week, as Chourio led the team with eight hits, including three doubles, and Vaughn added three hits, including a homer and a double. Jake Bauers also homered on Saturday night.

Jacob Misiorowski continues to mow down opposing hitters, as he went six scoreless innings in Milwaukee’s win on Friday night, striking out 11 and allowing just two hits and two walks. Aaron Ashby added two more wins to give him an MLB-leading seven on the season, as he totaled five innings in relief, allowing just one unearned run and striking out seven over three appearances. Brandon Sproat also had a scoreless, albeit inefficient, four-inning start against St. Louis, striking out five.

Milwaukee gets Monday off before beginning a nine-game stretch without an off day that stretches to next Thursday. That stretch begins with three games against the Padres in Milwaukee before a six-game road trip takes them to visit the Twins and Cubs.

3. St. Louis Cardinals (23-17); 3-3 this week; 25.3% chance to make postseason

The Cardinals had a pair of series splits against the Brewers and Padres this week, going 1-1 against the Brewers (with a rainout in the middle) before a 2-2 series split in San Diego over the weekend.

Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker each slugged a homer this week, while Iván Herrera led the team with nine hits, including three doubles, driving in four. Nolan Gorman, Nathan Church, and JJ Wetherholt each added five hits on the week, with Gorman and Church each picking up a pair of doubles.

Kyle Leahy made a pair of solid starts, totaling 10 1/3 innings with 10 strikeouts and just one run allowed. Matthew Liberatore also had a quality start, going six innings with one run allowed and six strikeouts, while Michael McGreevy went six scoreless with nine strikeouts to pick up the win in his start. The bullpen was solid as a whole, as Justin Bruihl, JoJo Romero, Jared Shuster, George Soriano, and Ryne Stanek all had scoreless weeks, totaling 11 2/3 innings with 13 strikeouts.

St. Louis gets Monday off before continuing the road trip to Sacramento, where they’ll face the A’s for three games. They then head back home to host the Royals over the weekend.

4. Pittsburgh Pirates (22-19); 3-3 this week; 58.5% chance to make postseason

The Pirates had a .500 West Coast road trip this week, taking two of three over the D-backs in Phoenix before dropping two of three to the Giants in San Francisco.

Brandon Lowe led teh Pirate offense with seven hits this week, including two homers, a triple, and a double, driving in six and scoring five runs. Oneil Cruz, Konnor Griffin, Joey Bart, and Marcell Ozuna dded a homer each, while Spencer Horwitz added six hits, including three doubles and a triple, driving in six.

Paul Skenes had another strong start against Arizona, going eight scoreless innings with just two hits allowed, striking out seven. Bubba Chandler went 10 innings over two starts, allowing four runs and striking out seven, while Braxton Ashcraft (7 IP, 1 ER, 6 K) and Mitch Keller (6 IP, 2 ER, 4 K) each turned in a quality start and earned the win. Mason Montgomery, Evan Sisk, and Gregory Soto all had scoreless weeks for the bullpen, and Soto also earned two saves over 3 1/3 scoreless frames.

The Pirates now head back home, where they’ll host the Rockies and Phillies for three games each following an off day on Monday.

5. Cincinnati Reds (22-19); 2-5 this week; 16.4% chance to make postseason

After jumping out to an early division lead, the Reds have struggled in May. They lost their first eight games of the month, including sweeps at the hands of NL Central rivals in the Pirates and Cubs. They finally put together a pair of wins to win their three-game set with the Astros over the weekend.

The Reds had no problem hitting homers this week, putting together nine as a team, including two apiece for both JJ Bleday and Spencer Steer. Elly De La Cruz led the team with 11 hits, driving in four. Blake Dunn, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Nathaniel Lowe, Matt McLain, and Sal Stewart each added a homer.

Andrew Abbott made a pair of scoreless starts this week, totaling 11 2/3 innings with nine strikeouts. Chase Burns picked up the other win for Cincy, going six innings with one run allowed and a pair of strikeouts. In relief, Jose Franco, Pierce Johnson, and Luis Mey all had scoreless weeks, totaling eight innings with four strikeouts across the three of them, as Johnson also picked up the only save of the week.

Cincinnati gets the day off on Monday before welcoming the Nationals to town for three games this week. They’ll then hit the road, though they won’t go very far as they visit the Guardians and the Phillies.

While this Orioles team entered the season with plenty of questions, the shortstop position wasn’t one of them. Gunnar Henderson’s name was etched in stone as perhaps the most dependable piece of Craig Albernaz’s lineup. Now healthy and fresh off of a solid showing at the World Baseball Classic, it felt like 2026 was poised to be a big year for Birdland’s star player.

Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case through the season’s quarter pole. Henderson is struggling. On the year, he owns a .211/.269/.421 batting line and a 91 wRC+. Since April 15 he has an OPS of just .580. During that time his batting average has dipped into the .190s twice, including this past weekend.

Henderson is well aware of how much he has scuffled. He told the media recently that he had “been pretty terrible for about a month now” and went on to explain the things he is doing to get out of his ongoing skid.

No one is going to question Henderson’s work ethic or desire to succeed for the Orioles. He wears his heart on his sleeve, for better or worse. But he will continue to be under the microscope anyway because, more than any other player on the roster, his ability to performe is tied directly to the team’s fortunes. If he starts hitting like he is capable of, the Orioles are going to score a lot more runs and win a lot more games.

So, what exactly is going on with Henderson?

We know he missed time with an oblique injury right at the start of 2025, and then he revealed during the winter that he also had a shoulder impingement as well that lingered. Could there be residual effects from those things? Maybe, but that isn’t obvious from what we can see. Henderson’s bat speed (74.2 mph) and sprint speed (28.2 feet/second) are down from last year, but not too dramatically, and both are still well above league average. At the very least, any sort of minor injury is not the only reason why he has seen all of his outputs crater.

What seems more likely is that Henderson’s approach has changed quite a bit coming into 2026. He’s way more aggressive. His 32.4% first pitch swing rate is the highest it has been since 2023. And the 34.4% chase rate is the highest of his career.

Orioles hitting coach Dustin Lind said as much when he spoke to the press on Sunday. He described Henderson as “not controlling the zone,” and went on to explain that the team encourages a shift in approach with two strikes that focuses on contact above all else. Maybe Henderson missed that memo. He is striking out 30.1% of the time, by far the worst rate of his career.

As you would expect for a player that is swinging and striking out more than ever, his walk numbers are in the tank. He has a 7.1% walk rate right now. Usually he walks at a 9-10% clip, which makes a big difference, especially for someone that is being placed in the lead-off spot regularly.

Rather than acting like a table setter, Henderson is swinging for the fences. His average launch angle is 15.3 degrees this year. His career average launch angle is 9.9 degrees. Would it shock you to learn that he is also hitting more fly outs than ever before? At 39.7%, he is posting the highest fly out rate of his career. That is part of why his .252 BABIP this year is so much lower than his career .315 number.

Another change in approach: Henderson is pulling everything. More than half (50.9%) of his batted balls are yanked to the right side of the field. His career average for pulled contact is 39.8%. This feels connected to the increased launch angle and the aggressiveness in that each tendency feels aimed at increasing power outputs.

To that point, Henderson is homering more than he did in 2025. He’s already got nine home runs this season, compared to 17 all of last year. This current pace would get him to 36 long balls for the year. And his home run per fly ball rate of 19.6% is much better than 2025 (12.3%), closer to what he posted in 2023 (19.3%) and 2024 (23.9%).

But those home runs have come at the expense of just about every other productive avenue of offense Henderson is usually responsible for. He is on pace for fewer doubles, triples, walks, and stolen bases than he had in 2025, which was already considered something of a disappointing year for him. His fWAR is projected to be 3.2. Still solid overall! But nowhere near the MVP-type of output that many of us hoped for and a steep regression from the 7.9 fWAR he posted in 2024 and even the 4.8 fWAR from 2025.

The Orioles aren’t going to do anything drastic with Henderson. He is not at risk of being sent to the minors or riding the bench for a week to change his mindset. The team needs him in the lineup, even in the midst of this slump. But it also doesn’t make sense for them to bang their head against the wall with him and repeat the same issues day after day.

For starters, he shouldn’t be the lead-off man right now. It’s not a role that is setting him up for success. Slide him down to third or fourth. That will give him more chances with runners on base, putting pressure on the pitcher and possibly giving him more pitches in the zone.

Next, do what you can to ditch the power-first approach that seems to be stuck in his brain. Henderson’s ability to hit 35+ home runs in a season is great, but it’s not worth losing everything else about him that has made him so valuable. If the 37 home runs he hit in 2024 turns out to be an anomaly so be it. He is much better off hitting 20-25 bombs with a .340 on-base percentage and 25 stolen bases than what we are watching right now.

And perhaps the final piece to all of this is making it clear to Henderson that the weight of the world is not on his shoulders. Between Pete Alonso, Adley Rutschman, Taylor Ward, and Samuel Basallo, plus any other hitters that eventually turn it around, there are other capable players on the roster that can bear the brunt of any one day. Whether that sort of mental load is contributing to Henderson’s struggles or not is unclear, but it feels worth the team’s time to make that clear to the player. If these Orioles are going to bounce back, they don’t need Henderson to be perfect, they just need him to play his game. Maybe the 4-for-9 he posted this past Saturday and Sunday were just the start of a big turnaround.

Let’s jump straight to the question of the day: would you give Brandon Marsh a contract extension beyond this season?

Is this a question based on yesterday’s performance? Perhaps, but let’s think this one through a little bit. The team’s outfield depth is near nonexistent in the minor leagues outside of maybe Dante Nori. There isn’t much available on the free agent market coming up in the next several seasons in the outfield, so basically, Marsh might be their best option for left field.

That does make it a little more imperative that he improve against left handed hitters. It would be difficult to justify paying a platoon player significant money if it came down to it. Yet they have put themselves in this position by not creating the depth necessary to withstand these kinds of issues. They will almost undoubtedly continue using Justin Crawford in center field, but what about the corners in the future?

Is Brandon Marsh part of that future?

Columbus Clippers 9, Iowa Cubs 4

Clippers improve to 20-19

Columbus teed off on offense Sunday, scoring nine runs on 16 hits as a whopping six different players had multi-hit games.

Leading the charge was Kahlil Watson, who impressively went 3-for-5 with two home runs and a stolen base, raising his season OPS to .899.

Angel Genao also had his best game since his promotion, going 3-for-5 with a triple, a double and two runs scored. After a slow first couple games, he’s now batting .333 with a 1.009 OPS at Triple-A.

Milan Tolentino had a big game as well, going 3-for-4 with a double and a stolen base while Nolan Jones went 2-for-5 with a double, Stuart Fairchild went 2-for-5 with two stolen bases and Kody Huff went 2-for-4 with a walk.

The Clippers got a strong showing on the mound as well, with Logan Allen having his best game of the season. Allen allowed one run on five hits with five strikeouts and one walk in 7.0 innings.

Cody Heuer allowed a pair of runs and Steven Perez allowed one more run before finishing off the game.

Akron RubberDucks 0, Richmond Flying Squirrels 6

RubberDucks fall to 17-16

Akron’s offense struggled mightily in this one as no one had an extra base hit.

Zac Cozart led the way, going 2-for-3 with a walk and a stolen base. Alex Mooney went 1-for-4 with two stolen bases and Jake Fox and Christian Knapczyk both went 1-for-3 with a walk.

Starting pitcher Josh Hartle pitched well enough, allowing three runs (two earned) on six hits with five strikeouts and a walk in 5.1 innings.

Jack Jasiak allowed three more runs and Reid Johnson pitched a scoreless final frame.

Lake County Captains 4, Great Lakes Loons 7

Captains fall to 15-17

It was a slow day for Lake County as Ryan Cesarini had the lone extra base hit, going 1-for-5 with a double.

Jace LaViolette had a decent game, going 2-for-5, although he struck out three times. Bennett Thompson stayed scorching hot, going 2-for-4 with a hit by pitch while Luke Hill went 2-for-3 with a walk.

Tommy Hawke went 1-for-4 with a walk and a stolen base while Dean Curley and Nolan Schubart both walked twice.

Starting pitcher Jackson Humphries had his typical enigmatic game. He allowed two runs (zero earned) on one hit with three walks and six strikeouts in 4.0 innings.

Michael Kennedy attempted to provide long relief and got shelled for four runs in 0.2 frames to ensure the loss.

Hill City Howlers 4, Fredericksburg Nationals 11

Howlers fall to 18-15

Hill City’s losing streak moved to four games on Sunday as its young pitching got shelled.

Starter Chase Mobley allowed five runs on four hits in 2.0 innings because he walked a whopping seven batters and struck otu two.

Keegan Zinn then attempted long relief and got shellacked for five more runs in 2.1 frames.

Offensively, Jose Pirela had a good game, going 3-for-4 with a double. Robert Arias walked twice and had a sacrifice fly and Yaikel Mijares went 2-for-4 with two doubles. Johan Rodriguez went 2-for-4 with a double as well.

Good morning.

Evan Grant writes that, after a series win over the Chicago Cubs on Sunday, the Texas Rangers finished a 40 game gauntlet to begin the season with an opportunity to ascend.

Kennedi Landry writes that the Rangers were treated to a vintage Jacob deGrom performance in the series-clinching finale win over Chicago.

ESPN notes that along with ten strikeouts yesterday, deGrom collected the 1,900th K of his career. deGrom is now the second fastest to reach that total by appearances and innings.

Grant writes about manager Skip Schumaker’s thoughts on the support from his mother Marlene as the Rangers enjoyed a Mother’s Day win on Sunday.

Landry writes that Marlene Schumaker watches every Rangers game which means she’s probably just as impressed with Jacob Latz and as tired of seeing the Rangers waste opportunities with the bases loaded as you are.

Grant notes that Corey Seager is probably due for a day off to reset after suffering through an extended slump in the first quarter of the season.

And, Landry writes that handling the little things to boost their thin margin for error is a way that the Rangers can improve going forward.

Have a nice day!

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We finished off the week in the black, and with the good weather coming, this is the week to flip those early-season losses to profit, and we need four units this week to do so. It's home run and MLB player props all week, right here. 
 
Kazuma Okamoto just took Drew Rasmussen deep last week, and with the way he's swinging it over the last 14 days, he has to be on the card at today's price.

We're adding him to Julio Rodriguez and Pete Alonso in my favorite home run props and MLB picks for Monday, May 11. 

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Julio Rodriguez	+520
Pete Alonso	+490
Kazuma Okamoto	+410
💲Today's HR parlay	+11808

Home run pick: Julio Rodriguez (+520)

I will fade the Houston Astros every chance I get. Their starters are weak, and the bullpen is near the bottom of the barrel. Today, they’re turning to Peter Lambert, who is pitching above expectations and coming off a season-high 104 pitches. The quality could dip today, and right-handed hitters have done most of the damage against him.

Julio Rodríguez will not close at +520 to homer. This number could fall to +400, and I’d still bet it. The right-handed slugger is slashing .348/.375/.717 over his last 11 games with four home runs and five more extra-base hits. His production away from home has also stood out.

If he doesn’t get to Lambert early, the Houston bullpen still ranks among the worst in home runs allowed and has been used heavily over the last two weeks.

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Space City Home Network, Mariners.TV

Home run pick: Pete Alonso (+490)

The Polar Bear has treated us well this season, and today vs. New York Yankees southpaw Ryan Weathers is another great spot to smash the Dinger button on the Baltimore Orioles slugger. Weathers missed his last start due to an illness and ranks in the bottom 40 among all MLB starters in both BlastCont% and HR/FB rate. 

There is also a familiarity factor here, as Weathers' last start came against the Orioles, who stacked four runs on him with Pete Alonso taking him deep on a 114-mph laser. The fair price for this four-bagger is around +400, per the projections at Covers. 

• Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MASN, YES

Home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+410)

Kazuma Okamoto is sporting a tidy 1.254 OPS over the last 10 days with five home runs and seven extra-base hits. One of those bombs came against the Tampa Bay Rays and Drew Rasmussen last Tuesday. The Tampa Bay righty owns one of the worst HR/FB rates among MLB starters, ranking 29th worst.

Okamoto is squaring everything up right now, and with the Toronto Blue Jays’ second-fastest swing behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr., he’s doing real damage.

The rookie owns the 17th-best SqUpCon% in baseball over the last two weeks and owns the fastest swing among the Top 35 hitters in that metric. All of his Over props are live today, and the familiarity angle works in his favor.

• Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Rays.TV, Sportsnet 1

Today’s HR parlay

Julio Rodriguez	Bet Now +11808
Pete Alonso
Kazuma Okamoto

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An average week for the Guardians felt like it had a lot more losses than what it really did. That means that some positive moments are definitely needed.

Bazzana Hits Big

After making his Major League debut on April 28th, Guardians’ top prospect Travis Bazzana was struggling to collect his first hit. While he walked twice in two of his first three games, he went hitless in that same amount of time. He collected his first hit, a single, on May 2nd. He began hitting more consistently after that, and it culminated in his first Major League home run on May 8th versus the Minnesota Twins. So far this season, he’s hitting .233/.425/.333 with eight walks and four RBIs.

Aleman Finding Success Early

The Guardians announced on Friday that they would be calling up pitcher Franco Aleman to give the bullpen a boost. He did exactly that in his debut on Sunday, pitching two innings while striking out one and giving up two hits. He did not allow any runs to score, and he kept the Guardians in a spot where they had a chance to at least tie the game (which they did not do). While it’s too early to tell if he can keep this success up throughout the season, he has been extremely promising in Triple-A Columbus so far this season. He’s managed a 0.00 ERA across 12 innings, giving up just one unearned run on three hits. He’s struck out a whopping 18 hitters and walked only four.

Guards Make Big Trade

In a shocking move, the Guardians announced on Saturday that they would be acquiring catcher Patrick Bailey from the San Francisco Giants for Minor League pitcher Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson and a 2026 compensation pick. While he’s only hitting .141/.207/.176 so far this season, he’s averaging a .224/.281/.328 line in his career. He is known for his success behind the plate, however, getting calls outside of the zone without being challenged. The Guardians definitely needed a boost at that catcher’s spot after sending Bo Naylor back to the minors.

Social Media Spotlight

My favorite post from the week comes from the official Guardians account. After Travis Bazzana hit his first Major League home run, the team posted an upside down video of it captioned “For our folks in Australia”.

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The Los Angeles Angels visit Progressive Field for Game 1 of a three-game series with the Cleveland Guardians.

Joey Cantillo and his filthy changeup have been tough to beat, and my Angels vs. Guardians predictions expect Cantillo to dominate this Angels lineup. 

Read on for my MLB picks for Monday, May 11. 

Who will win Angels vs Guardians today: Guardians -1.5 (+130)

The Cleveland Guardians send Joey Cantillo to the mound tonight against a Los Angeles Angels lineup that ranks 24th in wRC+ over the last two weeks and owns the worst walk rate in baseball. 

Cantillo's changeup grades at the 88th percentile in run value, and his 95th-percentile release point makes him difficult to square up consistently. 

Without a named starter, the Angels figure to deploy their bullpen tonight, and Los Angeles relievers have surrendered home runs at the highest rate in baseball over the last two weeks. 

With too much juice on the moneyline, take Cleveland to cover the run line instead. 

COVERS INTEL: Cantillo has been one of the better bets in baseball this season, going 6-2 in his starts while generating +4.51 units for bettors.

Angels vs Guardians Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (+104)

Wind blowing in off Lake Erie on a chilly May night sets the table for a low-scoring affair.

Cantillo has held opponents to a .294 BABIP with a 75% strand rate in 2026 despite pedestrian underlying stuff. 

The Angels rank 24th in wRC+ over the last two weeks and own the worst walk rate in baseball, while Cleveland has been equally futile offensively, posting a 91 wRC+ over that same stretch.

Neither lineup has shown the consistency to threaten this number, and Los Angeles has gone Under the total in eight of their last 10 games.

Angels vs Guardians odds

• Moneyline: Angels +144 | Guardians -150
• Run line: Angels +1.5 (-144) | Guardians -1.5 (+117)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-127) | Under 7.5 (-117)

Angels vs Guardians trend

The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 40 games at home (+10.25 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Guardians.

How to watch Angels vs Guardians and game info

Angels vs Guardians latest injuries

Angels vs Guardians weather

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To kick off the week, the Yankees will head back to the East Coast for a three-game set with the Orioles. For the most part, the American League in 2026 can reasonably be described as “unimpressive,” a description the Yankees are mostly exempt from, but describes Baltimore’s season fairly well. At 18-23, they are already in a nine-game hole in the East, and could be headed for a forgettable season, similar to 2025, after they made the postseason in two consecutive seasons.

The Yankees, after opening the month of May with some exemplary baseball, are coming off of a sweep at the hands of the Brewers. Now having fallen out of first place, being overtaken by the red-hot Rays in the East, they’ll need to beat up on the O’s in order to regain status in their division.

Monday: Ryan Weathers vs. Brandon Young (6:35 pm ET)

Ryan Weathers will take the hill to open up the series on Monday. Although he has been up and down at times, his first season in pinstripes has started off quite well on the whole. In 38.2 innings thus far, the lefty has managed a 3.03 ERA and 3.60 FIP, while striking out more than a batter per inning. He most recent start also came against Baltimore, in which he struck out five in as many solid innings of work. He’s also completed at least five innings in his last five outings, a streak he’ll look to continue on Monday.

The Yankees will square off with 27-year-old Brandon Young on the mound for Baltimore. A rookie last season who had an ERA north of 6 last season in 12 starts, he’s made strides in his sophomore campaign. The right-hander has split time between triple-A and the Majors in 2026, but has stuck around for a few turns through the rotation currently. His last outing saw him go six hard-earned innings against the Marlins, giving up three runs and striking out five.

Tuesday: Will Warren vs. TBD (6:35 pm ET)

Will Warren is slated to start on Tuesday, and has enjoyed a mostly terrific 2026 season. Despite that, he may still have a bad taste in his mouth, coming off of his only bad start this year, when he gave up six runs in four innings against the Rangers. On the bright side, prior to that start, he had a sub-2 ERA across his four previous outings, and he has now struck out six or more batters in five straight starts. He’ll look to right the ship after his first blemish on an otherwise excellent 2026.

The O’s have yet to announce a starter, though it could possibly end up being Trevor Rogers returning from the injured list. Rogers was incredible in 2025, posting a sparkling 1.81 ERA in 18 starts last season for Baltimore, though he has not gotten off to the start they hoped for this year. He’s likely run into some tough luck, running a decent 3.72 FIP, but he also hasn’t pitched since April 25, hitting the shelf with an illness.

Wednesday: Max Fried vs. TBD (6:35 pm ET)

The series’ final game will likely see Max Fried on the rubber for New York. After beginning his eight-year deal with a tremendous 2025, Fried has picked up right where he left off in 2026. Despite slightly decreased strikeout numbers, Fried is more than getting by with a 2.74 FIP m and has been one of baseball’s most valuable pitchers to this point in the season. He has cemented himself as one of the most reliable starters around, and the Yankees will get to enjoy just that on Wednesday.

Baltimore does not have an official starter announced for Wednesday either, but righty Kyle Bradish is the probable starter according to RosterResource. After a breakout campaign in 2023, Bradish has had difficulty staying on the field, as his 42 innings this season are already the most he’s had since that ‘23 season. Although health is the top priority, it has been a disappointing start to the year, as he hasn’t gotten a ton of length, and has allowed multiple runs in all but one start. He pitched against the Bombers on May 2nd, and allowed five runs and a pair of homers in four innings.

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Kazuma Okamoto has been swinging the hottest bat in the Toronto Blue Jays lineup, and I’m expecting another productive night at the plate for the star slugger tonight against the Tampa Bay Rays. 

Read on to see why with my Rays vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB Picks on Monday, May 11.

Rays vs Blue Jays predictions

Rays vs Blue Jays best bet: Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 total bases (+110)

Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Kazuma Okamoto is finally swinging the bat with consistency, and I expect that to continue tonight against Tampa Bay Rays starter Drew Rasmussen. 

He’s gone Over tonight’s posted total of 1.5 bases in six of his last 10 games, averaging 2.9 bases per game in that stretch. 

Included in this span of games is a May 5 outing against Rasmussen, where he went 1-for-3 with a home run.

Rasmussen throws a lot of four-seam fastballs to right-handers, and Okamoto has handled them extremely well this season. 

He owns a .321 average against the pitch, with a .643 slug and a 67.8% hard-hit rate, with nine of his 13 XBH.

COVERS INTEL:Rasmussen ranks in the 22nd percentile in barrel rate allowed, while Okamoto is in the 92nd percentile with a 16% barrel rate.

Rays vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)

Daulton Varsho has recorded a hit in eight of his last 10 games. He’s hitting .316 in that stretch, including a 1-for-3 outing against Rasmussen on May 5. I’ll add Over 0.5 hits for Varsho to tonight’s SGP

For the final leg of the SGP, I’m taking Kevin Gausman to go Under his 2.5 earned runs line. He held the Rays to just two runs in his last outing and is 3-1 to the Under across his last four starts.

Angels vs Blue Jays SGP

• Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 total bases
• Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 hits
• Kevin Gausman Under 2.5 earned runs

Rays vs Blue Jays home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+300)

Okamoto leads the team with 10 home runs this season. 

One of those homers came off Rays starter Rasmussen back on May 5. 

It’s a good matchup for Okamoto, who hits the four-seamer extremely well, which is Rasmussen’s most used pitch, with a .643 slug-rate and a 67% hard-hit rate. 

He also barrels the ball well, and Rasmussen has allowed a lot of barreled hits this season. 

If Okamoto gets a fastball in the zone, he could launch it into the seats again, as he’s done many times over the past couple of weeks.

Rays vs Blue Jays odds

• Moneyline: Rays +1.5 (-190) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+160)
• Run line: Rays +110 | Blue Jays -130
• Over/Under: Over 7 (-125) | Under 7 (+105)

Rays vs Blue Jays trend

The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.85 Units / 49% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Blue Jays.

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