This week we have another fantastic episode for you “Birdo” brains! Joe Doyle of http://overslotbaseball.com/ joined Jake and Scott to talk all things MLB draft! The Cardinals own 6 of the top 86 picks in the 2026 MLB draft cycle. We will be covering all of the elements of that in the lead-up to one of the most consequential drafts in Cardinals history!

To follow along with all of Joe’s great insights and his podcast episodes with scouting directors and high-ranking executives, you can subscribe to his Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/cw/Overslot/membership

Follow Joe on X: https://x.com/JoeDoyleMiLB

This week, we talked about the upcoming CBA negotiations that could affect the lower levels of the minor leagues, the Cardinals’ new “type” and players who fit what they’re looking for now (hint: it’s no longer 92 MPH sinkers), players who are projecting in that 13 spot range, JJ Wetherholt and what Joe saw coming out of West Virginia, and much more! Oh, and this week is only 30 minutes so, for those of you who prefer a shorter episode, this ones for you!

Next week we will be doing our first “reader mailbag” episode of the season!

-Thanks for listening

Welcome back to Monday Stat Party, a weekly series showcasing the most curious and nostalgia-inducing statistical developments from the past week of Mets baseball. These can be as high-profile as becoming the youngest MLB player to homer, steal, and walk on Opening Day, or as obscure as setting a team record for the most double-digit strikeout games on Opening Day over the past thirteen years — both of which are included in today’s list. What unites each entry is the sense of intrigue which they aim to spark, and the unbridled love of the game’s anomalies from which they arise. So without further ado, let the stat party begin…

THURSDAY

Brandon Lowe’s early home run marked only the second time in 21 years that the Mets have surrendered a run in the first inning on Opening Day. In 2016, an Eric Hosmer single put the Royals up 1-0 against Matt Harvey in the first.

Pirates starter Paul Skenes was relieved after just 0.2 innings pitched, marking the shortest start for an opposing pitcher on Opening Dayin Mets history. Since 1983, only two other Opening Day starters (José Berrios in 2022 and Kyle Gibson in 2021) have failed to complete an inning of work.

The Mets’ pitching staff recorded double-digit strikeouts on Opening Day for the ninth time in the past thirteen seasons. No other National League team has done so more than seven times in that span.

The Mets scored eleven runs on Opening Day for the third time in franchise history, having done so previously in 2013 against the Padres and 1994 against the Cubs.

The Mets scored five runs in an inning on Opening Day for the fifth time in franchise history. They most recently did it back-to-back years in 2017 against the Braves and 2018 against the Cardinals.

The Mets hit multiple home runs on Opening Day for the first time since 2014, when Andrew Brown, Juan Lagares, and David Wright went deep against Stephen Strasburg, Tyler Clippard, and Jerry Blevins, respectively.

Carson Benge and Francisco Alvarez gave the Mets their first back-to-back homers on Opening Day since 1994, when José Vizcaíno and Todd Hundley went deep in the top of the third inning at Wrigley Field. Darryl Strawberry and Kevin McReynolds also accomplished the feat in 1988 at Montreal, with Strawberry’s legendary homer hitting the roof at Olympic Stadium.

Benge is one of only two Mets to homer in their MLB debut on Opening Day, joining Kaz Matsui in 2004. Benge is one of just nine Mets to reach base three times in their MLB debut, and the first since Steven Matz in 2015.

Benge is the only player to homer, walk, and steal a base in their MLB debut on Opening Day. Benge is one of just three players in the modern era to homer, walk, and steal a base in their MLB debut, joining Weston Wilson (2023) and Bert Campaneris (1964). 

Benge is also the youngest player to homer, walk, and steal a base on Opening Day, coming in just ahead of Bryce Harper and Barry Bonds. (credit: Metsmerized’s Mathew Brownstein)

Eight players made their Mets debut, marking the most in a given game since Opening Day in 1995. (credit: MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo)

For the fifth straight season, the Mets had an Opening Day starting pitcher who had never started on Opening Day for them before (Tylor Megill, Max Scherzer, Jose Quintana, Clay Holmes, Freddy Peralta). That’s only happened one other time in Mets history, from 2013-2017 (Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, Bartolo Colón, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard).

The Mets improved to 42-23 on Opening Day, with a .646 Opening Day winning percentage that ranks first among the 30 current major league clubs.

SATURDAY

The Mets remained locked in a 0-0 tie through nine innings for the first time since April 1, 2024, when they lost to the Tigers to fall to 0-4 on the season.

Luis Robert Jr. became the fourth player in Citi Field history to notch their first Mets homer in walk-off fashion, joining Henry Blanco (2010), Eric Young Jr. (2013), and Jesse Winker (2024).

Robert hit the Mets’ first walk-off home run while trailing in the eleventh inning or later since Dominic Smith did it on the final day of the 2019 season against the Braves. Just over two hours after Robert’s home run, Smith hit a walk-off grand slam in his first game as a member of the Braves. (credit: SNY’s Mets Pregame show)

SUNDAY

Starter Nolan McLean and right fielder Carson Benge were teammates at Oklahoma State, where McLean had more homers than Benge and Benge had more strikeouts than McLean. (credit: MLB on X)

In the first two innings, McLean threw three pitches over 98 mph. During his eight starts in the majors last season, McLean threw just one pitch over 98 mph.

McLean has recorded 65 strikeouts through his first nine career starts. That ties him with Al Leiter and Mark Prior for tenth all-time. Former Mets Dwight Gooden (73) and Nolan Ryan (71) rank sixth and eighth, respectively, while Thursday’s starter Paul Skenes (70) ranks ninth.

Luis Robert Jr. is one of only four Mets to record five RBI and reach base eight times in a season’s first three games, joining David Wright (2008), Mike Piazza (2004), and Bobby Bonilla (1995). He is also the fifteenth Met to record five RBI and five hits in a season’s first three games, and the first to do it since John Buck in 2013.

The Mets have now played extra innings in two of their first three games for the fourth time in franchise history, joining 1965 (Astros), 1985 (Cardinals), and 1991 (Phillies). All four instances have occurred with the Mets as the home team.

Miscellaneous Mets stat of the week:

Only three Mets have made 10+ Opening Day starts: David Wright (12), Tom Seaver (11), and Bud Harrelson (11).

With Opening Day and the first series of the year under their belts, the Red Sox stay on the road with three games agains the Houston Astros. This time it’s three games over three days, rather than over four, and the series in Texas will get us into April, a more natural time for baseball to be played.

Ranger Suárez will be making his Red Sox debut. Who is Ranger Suárez as a pitcher? It’s worth checking out Jake Roy’s breakdown on his finesse style. But suffice it to say he’s not blowing the world away with fastball velocity and is still really good. In eight years with the Phillies he put up a 3.38/3.54 ERA/FIP. He strikes out north of 20% of batters and over the last two years has dropped his walk percentage from about 9% to around 6%. He was a little behind thanks to some WBC usage but is still pitching in the fourth game of the season. He’s opposed by veteran Lane McCullers Jr., the first of three righties the Astros are starting. McCullers missed all of 2023 and 2024 due to injury and pitched in 16 games (13 starts) in 2025. The results were bad. He only tossed 8.0 innings this spring and while his walks and Ks were both going in the wrong direction, it was still just 8.0 innings. And even as he struggled in 2025 he was striking out nearly 10 batters per 9 innings. He’s possibly closer to 2022 than 2025. Can the lefty leaning Sox set him back?

The next debut day features Brayan Bello. Bello was brilliant for several months until a rough period down the stretch to close out the 2025 season. Asking Bello to be the #2 may have been too much, even when he shows flashes of great starts. But in the back half of the rotation? He might be the best #4 in the business. He made one start for the Dominican Republic and the WBC and looked good. He was good in Spring Training. These are small samples against varied competition but if he’s healthy he does have the ability to pitch well. Hunter brown finished third in the AL Cy Young voting behind Tarik Skubal and, of course, Garrett Crochet. In his first start of the season he tossed 4.2 scoreless innings while striking out 9. No walks, just four hits.

Boston follows up with the other Cy Young finalist: Garrett Crochet. Crochet basically didn’t miss a beat: 6.0 innings, 8 Ks, 2 BBs, 3 hits, no runs. The Pig is back at it. Mike Burrows for the Astros, however, wasn’t welcomed as warmly to the 2026 season. Over 5.2 innings Burrows gave up 9 hits (2 home runs), allowed 5 runs, walked 2, and struck out 6. Acquired in a three-team trade from the Pittsburgh Pirates that included the Tampa Bay Rays, this was his first outing as part of the Astros organization. The 25-year-old threw 96 innings for the Pirates in 2025 with a 3.94/4.00 ERA/FIP and 97 Ks vs 31 walks. It remains to be seen if the Astros get a little more out of him than Pittsburgh.

After one series Wilyer Abreu is red hot.

Willson Contreras and Caleb Durbin are cold.

Connor Wong already has two hits.

And after this series it’s time for the home opener at Fenway Park.

Probable Pitching Matchups

Monday, March 30: Ranger Suárez (— ERA / — FIP) vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (— ERA / — FIP)

Tuesday, March 31: Brayan Bello (— ERA / — FIP) vs. Hunter Brown (0.00 ERA / 1.63 FIP)

Wednesday, April 1: Garrett Crochet (0.00 ERA / 1.24 FIP) vs. Mike Burrows (7.94 ERA / 6.44 FIP)

When/Where to Watch

Monday, March 30 at 8:10 PM ET on NESN

Tuesday, March 31: 8:10 PM ET on NESN

Wednesday, April 1: 2:10 PM ET on NESN

The San Diego Padres avoided getting swept this Opening Weekend, winning, 3-0, on Saturday night against the Detroit Tigers.

Everything went great for the Friars in the series finale. The offense gave the San Diego pitching staff some cushion (that they wouldn’t end up needing). Randy Vásquez dominated the Tigers through six innings, and the bullpen handled business afterward.

With that, the first win of the Friars’ 2026 season is in the books, and they’re looking to add more to the win column. Who better to face than their division rivals from the Bay Area?

Taking the mound

Landen Roupp (SF) v. Walker Buehler (SD)

The 27-year-old Roupp will take the mound for San Francisco after impressing last season in his first full year as a starter.

Roupp converted over from the bullpen in 2024 and finished out ‘25 with a solid 3.80 ERA.

The Giants are pinning an abundance of hope on Roupp to perform in order to fill out the back end of their rotation.

More primarily, San Francisco has yet to win a game after being swept by the New York Yankees during Opening Weekend.

Buehler, on the other hand, struggled immensely in 2025 and is somewhat of a reclamation project for San Diego.

He was decent this spring and finished with a 6.60 ERA (most of that came from his final start where he got tagged for seven runs in three-and-a-third innings).

But if Buehler can find some of the form that saw him finish fourth in 2021 NL Cy Young voting, the Friars will see their starting rotation upside become a reality.

Batter up!

With Roupp being only the second right hander that San Diego has faced (and given that this formula worked against Detroit righty Jack Flaherty on Saturday), manager Craig Stammen will probably construct a lineup similar to that Tigers’ series finale:

1. Jake Cronenworth, 2B
2. Fernando Tatis Jr., RF
3. Manny Machado, 3B
4. Jackson Merrill, CF
5. Xander Bogaerts, SS
6. Gavin Sheets, 1B
7. Ramón Laureano, LF
8. Nick Castellanos, DH
9. Luis Campusano, C

It was a surprise to see Cronenworth in the leadoff spot for the Friars, but it will likely not be the last time.

Laureano could bat second after going 3-for-4 on Saturday night, but Tatis has a career .625 batting average against Roupp (eight at-bats). Tatis could even bat leadoff over Cronenworth due to that success.

Campusano is 2-for-2 in his career against Roupp, and he and starter Freddy Fermin have been sharing the backstop role relatively evenly thus far, so it seems possible he gets the start.

The DH spot will likely be filled by Castellanos with his splits versus righties being better than Miguel Andujar’s. But Ty France could also slot into that role since Castellanos has struggled at the plate so far (though France hasn’t been all that much better).

Relief corps

It’s impossible to understate just how much of a gem Vásquez pitched on Saturday night.

Because of that, only Kyle Hart (2 IP) and Mason Miller (1 IP) were used in relief. But with the strange, early off day that the Padres had Sunday, it’ll likely be all hands on deck with everybody available.

Miller was dominant in his 2026 debut for San Diego. The Friar Faithful can hope to see him close tonight so long as the offense can solve Roupp — alongside a shaky Giants bullpen.

It sure would be nice for the San Francisco Giants to get a win under their belt this week. Hopefully, that win happens in this series against the San Diego Padres. On the other hand, over the last four seasons, the Giants are just 10-19 at Petco Park. History is probably not a predictor of the present in the sports context, but talent usually is; in which case, it’s worth wondering if the Giants and Padres are that far apart on paper.

It’s expected to be a down year for the Padres, right? The team’s finances are such that AJ Preller couldn’t make a big splash in free agency and years of huge trades has emptied their farm system. They scored just 7 runs in their opening series against the Tiges, tied for third with the Rockies and just behind the Diamondbacks, putting all four non-Dodger NL West teams in the bottom 5 of the sport in terms of runs scored. By wRC+, San Diego’s 66 puts them just outside that bottom 5 at 6th place. Sustainable for all these NL West teams? Probably not. Plus, this series is a matchup of division rivals, so, expect a tough series.

Still, this is quite the series for remembering some guys.

The Padres, like the Giants, also had some pitching holes that needing patching in the offseason after losing Dylan Cease and Robert Suarez to free agency and Yu Darvish to injury, but San Diego went about it in a way that truly highlights their financial situation. Two of the three starters in this series are league minimum veterans who were picked up by San Diego just before Spring Training. Former Dodgers ace Walker Buehler and former Rockies ace German Marquez both have highlights and pedigree, but they are also emergency options. Will they flash former dominance or will the Giants be able to do damage against players who are essentially afterthoughts?

They also added some veteran hitters before Spring Training, picking up Nick Castellanos to DH after the Phillies released him, Miguel Andujar, and one-time All-Star Ty France.

Adding low-cost veteran players to the roster to serve as its depth is what the Angels do every year and it never really seems to work out for Perry Minasian. Will AJ Preller have better luck? His Padres are also being led by a rookie manager who has even less experience than Tony Vitello from an MLB coaching standpoint. The ceiling would seem to be very low.

Then again, they still have Fernando Tatis Jr. They still have Jackson Merrill. Manny Machado is off and running towards another .800+ OPS season (a career .305/.358/.520 in 483 PA vs. the Giants). Ramon Laureano, acquired at last year’s trade deadline, is off to a hot start. Their bullpen features Mason Miller’s 100+ mph fastball and, as usually, a bunch of fairly anonymous names who come in and get the job done.

I can’t believe I’m using this expression, but the Giants are looking to get off the schneid. They need a win, obviously, if only to halt the creeping dread created by another embarrassing homestand at Oracle Park. Rafael Devers seemed to live down to the national naysayers about his talent (and contract) with a lot of swing and miss in the strike zone; and, generally, it would be silly to say anything positive about a lineup that managed just 1 run in 27 innings at home. Logan Webb didn’t look so hot on top of Tony Vitello glitching out and leaving him in too long. The Padres are looking for a little validation too, though, and beating up on a team they’ve been able to handle might just give them the confidence they need to overcome their Los Angeles Angelsesque roster.

Series overview

Who: San Francisco Giants (0-3) at San Diego Padres (1-2)
Where: Petco Park | San Diego, California
When: Monday & Tuesday at 6:40pm PT, Wednesday at 1:10pm PT
National broadcasts: Monday (FS1)

Projected starters
Monday: Landen Roupp (season debut) vs. Walker Buehler (season debut)
Tuesday: Logan Webb (0-1, 10.80 ERA) vs. German Marquez (season debut)
Wednesday: Adrian Houser (season debut) vs. Nick Pivetta (0-1, 18.00 ERA)

Players to watch (besides Logan Webb & Manny Machado)

Padres

Gavin Sheets: Their starting first baseman is 0-for-8 to start the season. Last year, he hit 19 home runs and drove in 71 to go with a .746 OPS. In 21 games against the Giants, he’s 18-for-58 with a pair of homers, a triple, and 5 doubles to go with 17 RBI and 7 walks against 8 strikeouts. That’s a line of .310/.403/.534 in 67 PA. He’s 1-for-4 with a homer and 3 walks in 7 PA against Landen Roupp and 7-for-14 with 3 triples against Logan Webb.

Walker Buehler & German Marquez: They both could’ve been Giants in another life… before the team brought aboard two more investors and overcame all the “dead money” obligations that temporarily inflated their payroll. They’ll try to shake off their rough spring trainings (6.60 ERA for Buehler, 7.16 for Marquez) and reestablish themselves as reliable major league starters. They would not be the first players to use performances against the Giants as stepping stones to better things.

Adrian Morejon: Speaking of Spring Training stats (which don’t mean anything if they’re good and everything if they’re bad), the lefty reliever struck out 12 and walked just 1 in 8 IP. Last year, he had a 13-6 record out of the bullpen. He’s given up 6 runs in 26 career innings (19 G; 2.08 ERA) against the Giants while striking out 25 and walking 9.

Giants

Luis Arraez: The Giants’ second baseman will be facing his former team in a stadium where he has a career .294 batting average (139 G, 594 PA).

Jung Hoo Lee: He has a .297 average in 10 games at Petco along with a pair of home runs.

Keaton Winn: It would be really easy to say “Watch Ryan Walker every series,” because a lot of the Giants’ success this season (if that’s in the cards) is tied to how he performs; however, it’s going to take more than Walker to make this a formidable relief corps. The Giants have something in Caleb Kilian, but after that, it’s a rough draft. Winn has the stuff to become the third righty in the ‘pen and having Walker-Kilian-Winn as late inning relief options would shorten the game in a meaningful way.

Tony Vitello watch

Talent makes managing a whole lot easier, but as Tony Vitello demonstrated on Opening Night, that idea has a limit. Yes, Logan Webb is probably the best player on the roster — certainly, the best pitcher — but leaving him on the mound far longer than was warranted not only set back Webb (it’ll take a while to get that ERA down), but created a little doubt about the new manager’s confidence here in the early going. If there’s one area of the game where a manager does make a tangible impact beyond interpersonal relationships, it’s in managing the bullpen/making pitching changes. Beyond that, projecting confidence is one of those top-down behaviors that every successful organization demonstrates. The Giants were quiet and overmatched. A reflection of their manager right now?

This Padres matchup is a great test, because San Diego’s manager Craig Stammen is a brand new manager for 2026, too. He’s also an unconventional hire in that after the former reliever retired in 2023, he joined the Padres’ front office as an advisor before becoming the sixth manager hired by AJ Preller, San Diego’s President of Baseball Operations. He was a major league pitcher, though, which is more major league experience than Vitello had. He also picked up his first win this weekend.

Padres beat writer Dennis Lin wrote about Stammen’s path to the top step of the dugout and this bit stands out:

The modern game may be strengthening the case for pitchers as managers. The universal designated hitter effectively eliminated the double switch. The three-batter minimum simplified the bullpen chess that once demanded encyclopedic knowledge of platoon splits. Analytics script many in-game decisions before the first pitch is thrown. What managing means, more than ever, is handling people.

The “anyone can cook” vibes surrounding the manager position is probably another consequence of making the sport more “efficient” — as big data has the effect of cheapening the role — but Stammen and Vitello have the job, so they might as well take advantage of the opportunity. Admittedly, that might become tough to do if the losses really pile up.

Prediction time

Well, last time out, I said the Giants would avoid the sweep. They did not. However, I feel compelled to go with that again here because the alternative is an 0-6 start. Therefore, the Giants will notch their first win of the season.

The Dodgers have a new Class-A affiliate in the California League this season. After 15 years linked with the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, 2026 is the inaugural season for the Ontario Tower Buzzers.

Ontario’s first roster is headlined by shortstop Emil Morales, who was named to top-100 prospect lists this offseason by Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, ESPN, The Athletic, and MLB Pipeline. The 19-year-old headlined the Dodgers’ international signing period in 2024, and later that year won Dominican Summer League MVP. Morales impressed last season in his first taste of Class-A, hitting .339/.420/.548 with a 160 wRC+, 11 doubles, five home runs in 30 games for the Quakes. If he follows outfielder Eduardo Quintero’s path from last year, Morales’s stay in Ontario might not be a long one.

Morales is one of 13 players on Ontario’s roster this year who played for Rancho Cucamonga last year, including infielders Joendry Vargas and Chase Harlan, and pitcher Marlon Nieves.

Nine 2025 draft picks by the Dodgers are on Ontario’s roster, including second-round pitcher Cam Leiter and third-round outfielder Landyn Vidourek. Vidourek played briefly for the Quakes last season. Leiter will be making his professional debut in 2026, one of nine players on the Tower Buzzers roster set to debut this year.

This group will be managed by the Dodgers’ captain of player development John Shoemaker, in his 50th year in the organization.

Ontario’s first game is this Thursday, April 2, at home against the Lake Elsinore Storm (Padres), at the brand new ONT Field.

The 2026 Major League Baseball regular season is officially underway, and the Yankees have begun their “run it back” season without a hitch after a three-game series sweep against the Giants. The first two games, including the first MLB game of 2026, were shutouts in favor of the visiting Bombers. Max Fried continued his dominance from 2025, and so did a pitcher who joined the party late last year but certainly made an impression: Cam Schlittler.

The 6-foot-6 right-hander started 14 games for the Yankees last season and posted an ERA of 2.96 in 73 innings pitched, along with 84 strikeouts. His best performance was, as many recall, in a do-or-die American League Wild Card Series finale against the Red Sox, where he pitched eight scoreless innings and posted a dozen strikeouts to advance the Yankees into the Division Series.

Coming into the 2026 season, the now-25-year-old Schlittler had big plans in the Yankees’ rotation, and his first start built an excellent foundation for him. Tasked with starting the second game of the season due to injury recoveries from the likes of Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón—no easy assignment for a sophomore player—he pitched 5.1 innings and allowed only one hit with eight strikeouts and came out with his first victory of the campaign.

But this win, there were two particular aspects about Schlittler and his approach that people around baseball paid attention to as the outing went on, concluded, and lingered: his cutter and fastball arsenal.

Of course, when Schlittler came on the scene, the first thing that was noticeable (outside of his physical attributes) was his high-powered fastball that can reach up to 100 mph and more. But Schlittler is unique in that he uses multiple fastball pitches, including a sinker and a cutter, along with his four-seam. Yet there were a couple of changes evident in his cutter and in his usage of those two pitches relative to last season.

First, Schlittler enters the 2026 season with a new grip on his cutter, which has helped him immensely. The numbers speak for themselves after just one outing.

Not only did we see a jump in movement on the pitch, but the overall velocity Schlittler was able to harness made it that much more lethal. A three-mph jump on a single pitch is simply ridiculous, and it paid dividends, as he threw the pitch 22 times and, outside of a fly out and a couple of foul balls, contact was hard to come by.

But the interesting part about Schlittler’s outing wasn’t just the jump in velocity and movement from the cutter; it was the usage of his secondary fastball pitches, and how they helped lead him to success.

Last season, Schlittler’s four-seam fastball dominated his mindset on the mound. He threw the pitch 55.9 percent of the time, with his next-highest pitch being the cutter at 19.7 percent. However, in his first outing of 2026 against the Giants, the usage changed drastically. Instead of relying on his four-seam — a pitch that’s still very hard to hit — Schlittler mixed things up, throwing the four-seam and cutter the exact same number of times (22). He followed that up by throwing his sinker 23.5 percent of the time, which he threw at only 6.1 percent in the entirety of last season.

Pitching coach Matt Blake—or someone else within the Yankees staff—seems to have pointed out that Schlittler’s fastball is his bread and butter, so why not use the three he has in his arsenal to make him even more lethal than he was before? The three pitches all move different ways but at around the same speeds, and then, if he really needs it, he can use his curveball and slider to mix things up.

It’s also worth pointing out the caveat that, yes, this is just one game of a 162-game season, and one where Schlittler is conservatively projected to pitch around 22 games and 118 innings per FanGraphs. However, if these numbers stay true—and the different profiles of these pitches stay true to what we saw in his first outing as well—Schlittler is in for one heck of a 2026, and it will be fun to watch.

Editor’s note: Now reread this entire article with “The Way” playing in the background for even more enjoyment.