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Being selected first overall is the ultimate gift and curse.

On one hand, you’ve shined so much in your pre-NBA career that a team believes you are the premier talent in your age group. You often arrive at a downtrodden franchise heading an effort to turn things around. Fans see you as a savior and a franchise pillar, the likes of Anthony Edwards, Victor Wembanyama, and most recently Cooper Flagg.

But, if you’re unable to live up that lofty status, the four-letter B-word seeps into the conversation. That word may hound you for the rest of your career — even if you grow into a helpful role player who sticks in the league for many years.

Ask any Hawks fan what they think of former number two overall pick Marvin Williams. They won’t point to five years as a starting small forward on Atlanta playoff teams in from 2008 to 2012. They won’t point to a body of work that includes a productive 15-year NBA career.

The conversation centers on what he wasn’t. He just wasn’t either of the two All-NBA point guards that followed him on draft day back in 2005.

Enter Zaccharie Risacher, number one overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.

It’s obvious he’s not having the offensive breakout everyone hoped for after closing last year’s rookie season on an absolute tear. And most recently, he’s been benched in the starting lineup for CJ McCollum (starting with yesterday’s game against the Brooklyn Nets — but possibly for the foreseeable future).

Last season, after coming back from injury from January 30th until the postseason, Risacher scored 14.9 points in just 25.7 minutes per game while shooting 52% from the field and 42% from three. You could practically see the confidence grow with every shooting explosion. The tortured fanbase could finally feel justified in the organization nailing their bet on an unconventional pick in a down draft cycle.

This season is a different story. Both his scoring impact and efficiency are down from his rookie season, and it hasn’t been offset by improvements in other ‘little areas’ of basketball.

To be clear, this isn’t the end of his NBA career nor his time with the Atlanta Hawks. But it’s undeniable that his development hasn’t gone to plan.

So, that begs the next question:

What has gone wrong so far?

This season has been a different case from his rookie season, when most rightfully expected him to take some time to adjust to the speed and physicality of the NBA game. Some of his biggest issues in my eyes in 2025-26 have been:

Not enough growth in his upper and/or core body strength

His numbers finishing at the rim and through contact most distinctly bear this out. Per databallr, Risacher is getting to the rim 9.2 times per 100 possessions, placing him in the 88th percentile in the league. But his rim finishing shooting percentage is 3.2% worse than league average.

Risacher’s passing vision is limited, and often it seems as if he predetermines when he’s going to try to get a shot at the rim regardless of the position of the defense. Jalen Johnson is in his direct line of view, but his attempt over/through two guys goes poorly:

“When we get in the lane and break the paint, having our eyes out and passing the ball out allows us to get more catch-and-shoot threes,” coach Quin Snyder had to say about his team’s process before the Nets game. “They’re obviously highly efficient shots. When we’re getting our shot blocked when going to the rim, it’s a pretty good indication that maybe there was an opportunity to get off the ball earlier.”

Or sometimes, he goes in expecting contact without the balance to finish if the expected contact doesn’t arrive:

Lack of a functional handle when faced with ball pressure

This was never a real draw to his game, though he’s at least shown he can handle the ball in the open court a bit. But in halfcourt settings especially, he has a tendency to fumble the ball at even the slightest bit of contact.

These possessions, like recently against the Minnesota Timberwolves below, are all too common. Jaden McDaniels is a premier on-ball defender in the NBA to be clear, but Risacher never looked like he had any shot to get past him to the rim here:

Shifting shot mechanics from shot to shot

In fairness, he hasn’t looked completely lost as a shooter or anything. For his NBA career, he’s shooting 36% on threes on 8.6 three-point attempts per 100 possessions. But he self-creates fewer than 5% of his three-point attempts and makes for his career and is quite clearly a streaky catch-and-shoot guy. In short, he needs a high-level creator to set him up for good looks (more on that later).

One big worry, however, is his oddly low free throw shooting percentage, a common leading indicator of true shooting talent, for example. Last season, he shot 71% from the free-throw line — just fine and no better. But this year, strangely, that number is all the way down to 60%.

I’m no biomechanics expert, but it seems to me that his shot is very upper body-dependent, and his pushy release doesn’t look particularly consistent. I think it’s something that can be ironed out with repetition, because otherwise inconsistent mechanics is something that could cap his overall shooting talent.

Not daring enough to play-make for others, movement shoot, or cut

There are a lot of ways to make yourself useful on offense without a high-level handle. You can read the floor and make quick passes upon receiving the ball. You can move and cut off the ball.

But after flashing these tools last season, Risacher hasn’t built upon this foundation.

The area I think he should tap into more is moving off ball around screens into catch-and-shoot opportunities. That’s simply a more dangerous play type than a standstill catch-and-shoot possession — you can threaten the defense into reacting to your movement even if you don’t touch the basketball.

It’s too much to ask him to be Kyle Korver or anything, but at his height and with his mobility, this should be more of a weapon in his arsenal.

His assist to turnover ratio is up from his 1:1 ratio last season, but I think he can continue to be more ambitious with his passing in coach Snyder’s ‘0.5 second’ system.

It’s a similar story with his cutting frequency. Per the NBA’s tracking numbers via Synergy, Risacher has been right at 8% of his possessions ending from a cut in each of his first two seasons. No growth from year 1 to year 2.

In short, the best way to optimize his offense is to be a jack of all trades. Someone multi-faceted — dangerous to a defense in a variety of ways.

His fit on offense was predicated upon having Trae Young as the focal point

Young is one of the best creators in the NBA. Young found Risacher often last season, and Risacher responded by shooting 38% from three when sharing the court with him (including a small sample this season). Trae Young is now in D.C., and while Jalen Johnson has assumed responsibility as the head of the offense, his ability to find Risacher can’t quite compare.

It’s possible that next season, they Hawks bring in another high-level playmaker to team with Johnson and Dyson Daniels — either via draft or free agency — and that acquisition could be a boon to Risacher’s offense. But in the meanwhile, he’ll need to find other ways to impact the game.

Risacher was never going to be a typical high draft pick. Almost all of those players historically have on-ball creation skills to build an offense around. Zaccharie’s skillset always lent himself to being a glue guy — someone whose offensive values comes from being set up by others, whether as a catch-and-shoot guy or off screening or off cutting.

There are also two angles to this conversation: the foresight angle and the hindsight angle.

Throughout the draft evaluation process, there was no real consensus in a draft class that was light on talent as compared to other drafts. We here at Peachtree Hoops still never felt as through Risacher was the guy even despite this, due to concerns with his low ceiling, rawness, and the opportunity cost to add a two-way center at a position of need.

Even in hindsight, though, things have clearly gone a good bit worse than envisioned. The trio of AlexSarr, Stephon Castle, and Donovan Clingan, for example, have flashed levels of productivity Risacher hasn’t (with Reed Sheppard, a.k.a. the Mahomesian prospect, in that conversation as well).

But that decision was made almost two years ago at this point. It is what it is.

So now what?

I’d be remiss to not mention that there are areas in which Risacher has shown clear improvement. His defensive impact is very apparent on a team lacking size at the small forward position. He’s a legitimate disrupter defending both on and off the ball, averaging more steals and blocks (2.8 ‘stocks’ per 100 possessions) than in his rookie season.

Risacher injects energy in the fight for rebounds (a big weakness on this squad). His assists per 100 possessions are up while his turnovers per 100 possessions are down. His +/- impact is there. I promise you, it hasn’t all been bad.

But when his offense is just barely functional to this point, that hangup remains an anchor on any other value that he provides.

I still believe he can be a very helpful and impactful role player, but it’s time to stop envisioning Risacher as a foundational player to the franchise.

Not only does he require a significant amount of continued development just to reach the point where he can be a starting wing on a competitive team, there has been nothing to suggest that his ceiling is any higher than that.

Additionally, a different front office head than the current one ultimately spearheaded that pick. The current general manager, Onsi Saleh, has less incentive to force a square peg into a round hole.

“[The starting lineup change] doesn’t reflect in any way my personal belief in Zacch,” coach Snyder had to say after the Nets win on Sunday. “It actually could be a positive for him to be in the game at a different stage. Different matchups with guys. I think that was the case [today]. He looks relaxed. He competed. Zacch’s about all the right stuff. His development is something that’s going to continue to happen whether he’s starting or coming off the bench.”

Again, I still think the 20-year-old still has a productive NBA career ahead of him, but in my opinion the Hawks should continue to develop him while also regarding him as no more than a rotational wing signed to a mid-value contract over the next two future seasons — that is, assuming his fourth-year team option is picked up.

The story of his career is still being written, and I would implore you to not write off someone who doesn’t even turn 21 for a couple of months. But it’s not too early to adjust expectations accordingly — a process both the franchise and the fanbase may have already kicked off.

It has been nearly a full year since Kyrie Irving has played in an NBA game. With his shutdown for the remainder of the year now official, he will not play his next game until at least 19 months post-ACL surgery. That is a lot of time. 19 months ago, the Mavericks were fresh off a run to the NBA Finals. Cooper Flagg was well away from playing his first game at Duke. There was a different president 19 months ago. All of this is to say, when Kyrie Irving suits up (hopefully) on opening night in October, he will not be the player he was against the Sacramento Kings on March 3 of last year. In fact, he may never be that player again. And to expect the Kyrie Irving of old would be misguided. 

Irving turns 34 on March 23. In the history of the NBA, there have only been three players who are Irving’s height (6’2”) or shorter to average more than 20 points per game at age 34 or older: Lenny Wilkins, Steph Curry, and Damian Lillard. All three guys are generational talents like Irving is, but none of them were coming off a major injury. In fact, Lillard sustained a major injury (torn achilles) after playing at that level and age for the entire year. When Irving went down, he was averaging almost 25 points a night in 36 minutes. To get back to that point, he would have to be the outlier that Curry is, who averaged over 29 points in his age-34 season. It just doesn’t happen, and the surgical aspect of the situation substantially reduces the likelihood of a return to form.

Recently, another guard who sustained a major injury last spring, Jaden Ivey, spoke with reporters about the impact of his leg surgery after his latest DNP:

Ivey, 24, was a former top-five pick. He averaged 17.1 points at Purdue his sophomore year and got his average up to 17.6 points per game in his third NBA season before sustaining a broken left leg in January 2025. Now, after starting just five games this season, he says his old self is “dead”. It was a somber reminder that real life is not NBA 2K, and these recoveries can take a serious mental toll on players. I am not saying that Irving feels the same way, but if major surgery can impact a guy as young and talented as Ivey, then no one is safe from the ramifications. Not only is history working against him, but the mental hurdle Irving has to overcome is massive, and it only grows as the time between on-court appearances increases.

Despite all of this, there is a little sun peeking through the clouds. Even though Ivey and Irving are small guards who rely on quickness and ball-handling to be effective, there are key differences between them. For one, they did not have the same surgeries. Ivey broke his fibula, which is a much less common injury than the ACL tear Irving sustained. What was once a death sentence, recovering from an ACL injury now feels pretty systematic. And aside from being the better player, Irving has the number one resource for recovering from surgery at his disposal. Klay Thompson missed nearly three full seasons of his prime due to two separate injuries that he sustained back-to-back. If anyone can get Irving to the place he needs to be, both mentally and physically, it is Thompson. So, although Irving will probably never be the player he was, there is reason to hope for it, as my fellow contributor Michael Harris detailed.

I personally do not think Irving will get back to that level. My expectation is very low for his production next season and beyond. I do not view him as a piece of Cooper Flagg’s future, nor a piece you should move mountains to keep. But I will happily take any and every moment above expectation he gives us. Now that Dallas is out of cap hell, Irving is a luxury the Mavericks can afford. He is a locker-room positive, has plentiful experience to pass on to Flagg and the Mavericks’ draft pick this season, and is a reminder of better times. If you expect to see the player we all saw a year ago, you will be disappointed. But if you expect nothing, Irving will have plenty of pleasant surprises. 

Since February 3, 2025, De’Aaron Fox has been a member of the San Antonio Spurs, before that, he spent the entirety of his career with the Sacramento Kings.

On Saturday night, the Spurs hosted the Kings in the second of their games taking place in Austin.

Before the game, Kings head coach Doug Christie was asked about the transition Fox has made in taking his game to South Texas. Christie served as an assistant to the Kings from 2021-2024 before taking the head coaching position in 2024.

“When he first came in he was all speed, everything was speed, speed, speed, and then he started to find his game. I think watching him [in Texas], he has so may different weapons and he’s an unselfish player, so that plays right into wheelhouse. His ability to use his speed to get downhill to create advantages….it just takes his game to a different level. There was a steady progression to his game. Watching him, defensively, being on a team like this with a rim protector and multiple guys on the perimeter who play defense allows him to gamble a little bit because of his quickness and his anticipation skills. I thought there was a steady climb in where he was going and what he was doing. He iss a three-point threat in the open court and in one-on-one situations.”

Fox has had to transition from being the leader of the Kings and face of a franchise to playing next to a generational player.

In fact, even as his role seems to diminish, his statistics have not. He is averaging almost three less shots per game and consequently two-points less per game. And he’s only shaved about a minute if playing time from his average. But overall, his rebounding, assists, steals, blocks, and personal fouls are right in alignment with his career averages from his time in Sacramento.

In other words, Fox hasn’t changed, his surroundings have. And having this leading man and supporting cast has elevated his team overall. Add in a certain level of health that has upheld the Spurs throughout this season, the second best schedule in the Western Conference does not seem as farfetched as it did only a few weeks ago.

Older Spurs fans might remember how David Robinson handed the baton to Tim Duncan, allowing Duncan to become the face of the franchise and focal point to the team’s offense. Robinson’s willingness and humility not only elevated Duncan at a healthy pace, it built the foundation for multiple title runs.

Although Fox came in after Victor Wembanyama was drafted, his humility and selflessness resonates with the Spurs culture. Mitch Johnson recognized it immediately.

“It’s been incredible to see…a twenty-eight-year-old All-Star in his prime that wants to sit next to the face of the franchise, who’s twenty-two and still figuring out as good as he is, and want to complement him and be enthusiastic about growing with him.”

Johnson went on to complement how Fox allows Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper to make their own mistakes as part of their growth. In moments where Fox could feasibly take over the game, he stays back so that the team as a whole can grow into the champions they hope to be.

“I really, really appreciate his willingness to try and grow with the group, even though he’s probably a little bit ahead in terms of just experiences.”

Fox, although not initially listed as a 2026 All-Star, Fox was chosen by Adam Silver as a replacement for Giannis Antetokounmpo, an acknowledgement of the Spurs place in the standings not belonging to one singular player.

Fox also hit the game winner for USA Stripes in the All-Star competition.

On a court with LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, and Donovan Mitchell, Fox was fed the ball and trusted by a team of all-time great players.

A vote of confidence at that level says it all.

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After a couple wins against the cellar-dwelling Indiana Pacers, the Wizards took on a surging Charlotte Hornets and got buried under an avalanche of threes. The Hornets made 25 in the game — one shy of their franchise record. Along the way, Charlotte connected on 12-14 from deep in the third quarter alone.

The Wizards did give up some open and wide-open looks in that ridiculous third quarter, but in fairness that kind of shooting is largely outlier flukish luck. Even All-Star teams going against All-Star level “defense” won’t make 12-14 from three-point range.

The Hornets deserve some credit too. Several of those threes came from stellar offensive design — multiple screens and side-switching player movement that befuddled the Wizards and created open looks. While the Wizards made a habit of dying on screens and not communicating effectively on switches, but those actions are tough to cover, and the league as a whole has had difficulty keeping up with them over the past couple months.

Overall, I’d have to say there wasn’t much to learn in this one. Washington was missing several players, head coach Brian Keefe kept the team’s available maintstays on a tight minutes leash, and gave biggest minutes to the two-way and 10-day guys. All part of the Keep That Pick campaign.

Thoughts & Observations

• With Alex Sarr and Tristan Vukcevic in street clothes, Anthony Gill got his first start of the season and the 16th start of his career. Nice that it happened against Charlotte, so Hornets play-by-play man Eric Collins could talk about Gill coming from Charlotte.
• Kyshawn George played pretty well in his first game back from a toe injury.
• Bilal Coulibaly exhibited shocking offensive aggression (for him) from the opening tip. He scored Washington’s first 11 points, and it was more than three minutes before anyone other Wizards player even attempting a field goal. He finished the period with 15 points — the highest offensive output in a single quarter in his career.
• Coulibaly’s previous high for a quarter was 13.
• Note I jotted during the first quarter: LaMelo has the weirdest shot in the NBA. It got even weirder later when he hit a contested and fading three off one leg with the shot clock expiring. He hit 10-15 from three-point range.
• Kudos to the Wizards defense for holding Ball to 2-5 shooting on twos. (No, this is not a serious observation.)
• It’s a little weird to talk about a 33-year-old lacking experience, but I think it might apply to Gill. Example: in the second quarter, he turned down a wide open catch-and-shoot three and instead drove into multiple defenders…and turned it over. The lesson? Take. The. Open. Shot.
• After Coulibaly’s personal best first quarter, he got zero minutes in the second and just eight minutes the rest of the game.
• The Christian and Scooby halftime show was great. If you haven’t seen the show, Google it. You’re welcome.
• I get that the franchise wants to lose so they can keep that first round pick and improve their odds of getting the highest possible draft slot. Even so, why would they start the second half running a postup for Bub Carrington who was being defended by Ball — who’s three inches taller?
• Charlotte’s offensive rating (points per possession x 100) through three quarter was 146. League average this season: 115.4.
• Charlotte is on a seven-game road winning streak.

Four Factors

Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

The four factors are measured by:

• eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
• OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
• TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
• FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)

Stats & Metrics

PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).

PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average so far this season is listed in the Four Factors table above. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.

ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 115, the league — on average — would produced 23.0 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -3.0.

Players are sorted by total production in the game.

Since James Harden has arrived in Cleveland, everything has been exactly what one would hope for. The Cleveland Cavaliers are 5–1, the offense looks rejuvenated, and the team’s vibes haven’t been higher this season. Nothing seems like it could detract from the momentum this team has built, as it now finds itself in the third seed of the Eastern Conference. Well, nothing except for the fact that we all know how Harden carries himself with his new clubs.

This is the honeymoon phase—a term that anyone who has been in a relationship knows all too well. Star-crossed lovers become so enamored with each other that they ride the euphoria and push all concerns to the side. Unfortunately, Cavaliers fans should keep in the back of their minds while they enjoy this initial phase of the James Harden experience. That, according to history, it will not last forever.

It would be nice to think the Tobias Fünke train of thought—“It didn’t work for them, but it could work for us”—didn’t have validity, but the pattern has too much credibility. Ask the fans of the Nets, Sixers, and Clippers how the initial portion of the James Harden experience went.

You go on Twitter, Reddit, YouTube, or even just talk to friends, and the quotes eerily all line up to paint the same picture. Harden joins Team X, and suddenly it’s, “Oh wow, he looks reinvigorated.” “Maybe something has changed?” Harden looks phenomenal for a stretch, which allows fanbases and front offices to quiet any reservations they had about the trade.

Then, Team X hits a bump in the road—whether it’s getting bounced from the playoffs or falling short of expectations—and things get dicey fast. The dialogue around the team and Harden suddenly pivots from, “Where did this guy come from?” to, “Will this team ever look like it did when he first arrived?” Next thing you know, the NBA trade deadline features Team X trying to appease Harden as he looks for his next venture, because your team didn’t cut it.

This is all part of the Harden experience. James Harden is an NBA mercenary. Mercenaries aren’t sentimental; they don’t get emotionally attached. In Harden’s case, if he doesn’t get what he wants quickly, things get sour fast.

This is nothing against Harden—he doesn’t hide his wishes or tendencies. This is very much out in the open. A key factor to consider when getting into the Harden business is that he never gets comfortable, always willing to press the buttons necessary to maximize his chances of winning a title. This is an important piece of information that Koby Altman and the Cavaliers front office were, without a doubt, aware of.

The Cavaliers, with all their chips on Harden, either unknowingly or unwillingly, have put themselves on a rapid and delicate timeline. This is probably the most open the Eastern Conference will be for the next few years, with the Pistons sitting at the top, the Celtics recuperating and reintegrating Jayson Tatum into the fold, and the Knicks looking like the main threats to Cleveland’s chances to represent the East in the NBA Finals.

It’s fair to anticipate that Cleveland has made some indication to Harden that they will either extend him or provide incentives for him to remain in town through next season, at minimum. The Cavaliers are currently benefiting from the Harden experience and show no signs of slowing down. The team should ride this momentum into the postseason. However, it is the playoffs that will set the tone for the team heading into next season, based on the recent chapters of Harden’s career.

This is the deal that Cleveland signed up for. Harden has always shown his cards. If the Cavaliers expect a different response from their newest star, then they got into the wrong business.