Category: Sports News

At the trade deadline coming up, the Phillies are going to make a move. That is all but a guarantee at this point being as how, under Dave Dombrowski, they have made a move at each deadline under his control. This year, there are some pretty striking needs the team has that are probably going to be upgraded from the outside as opposed to bringing someone up from the minor leagues.

What the priority order is for those positions can be debated rather thoroughly. The offense has been quite uneven on the season, meaning a bat, preferably a right handed one, should top the wishlist of the team, but an argument can be made for each of these other two. There is no order done here that shows which position is most in need of an upgrade. It’s just some hopes and dreams at three spots on the roster.

Left handed reliever

Dream target: Aroldis Chapman

Jose Alvarado has been shaky, at best. Tanner Banks has been bitten by the BABIP gods far too often and looks simply unreliable. Kyle Backhus was looking decent prior to his injury, but it’s still Kyle Backhus. The team needs a reliable, lockdown left handed reliever and the one best suited to their needs is Chapman. While he’s no longer the dominant force he was before, he’s still one of the premier left handed relievers in the game. His 34.6% strikeout rate is ninth among all relievers with at least 20 innings pitched, his whiff rate of 32.7% still in the top percentiles.

Break it down further, his sinker, among those that have thrown the pitch at least 100 times, has the second best whiff rate in the game, his slider, among those that have thrown it at least 50 times, 14th best in the game at generating swings and misses. He still possesses swing and miss stuff, something that is particularly useful during the postseason. In a still more granular level, Chapman has seen left handed batters 22 times this year and has allowed a .167 slugging percentage. He’s pretty much exactly what the team needs from a left handed pitcher.

The asking price on his services is likely to be high. The Red Sox, if they decide to sell, will have an asset in Chapman that they will want to cash in on. Relievers are always in high demand, particularly those who have Chapman’s skillset. In a bidding war, the team may not have the pieces needed to entice the Red Sox in a trade.

Realistic targets: Jojo Romero, Stephen Okert, Andrew Nardi, Erik Miller

All four pitchers listed here are something of the same: they’re playing on teams that are probably going to sell at the deadline and they’re kind of iffy against left handed hitting. The only one to have a slight quibble with is Romero, who is pitching for the Cardinals, a team in surprising contention in the National League, but they have made no bones about their desire to continue rebuilding, so we’ll throw him in here.

Usually when acquiring a left handed pitcher, one looks to see how well he fares against same sided hitting. These four are surprisingly not that great.

These aren’t numbers that blow anyone off the page when considering how well they’d do at their primary job, which would be to get left handed hitters out. The biggest tests in the postseason would come from the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Christian Yelich, et al., so seeing that they haven’t been that good can be a bit disconcerting. These same numbers against right handed hitters are more or less the same, giving a “what you see is what you get” feel.

Yet as with anything, their market they can shop in will be limited thanks to their lack of impact talent they can offer back in a trade. How much team control they have might work in the Phillies favor for a few. Romero is a free agent after this season, Okert has one year of team control left, Nardi two years of control, Miller three. You can basically see how the price would change for each pitcher as their control goes up.

Starting pitcher

Dream target: Tarik Skubal

I mean, this is everyone’s top target. Skubal is the best trade piece on the market no matter the position. The Tigers have more or less faded from the playoff picture, even if Skubal helps them win every fifth day. Their future is best served by moving him and he will command a high asking price.

But consider the fit.

A rotation of Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler, Tarik Skubal and Jesus Luzardo is instantly, without a doubt, the best rotation in the game. You could pick the Phanatic to pitch as the fifth starter and it would still be the best. Any playoff game that would be started by that quartet, they should be the favorite. They would have to score runs for them, something this offense feels allergic to, but they’d also allow few, if any, runs themselves.

It truly would be the best possible trade they could make.

What would have to go in return? Andrew Painter? Sure, send him on. Painter plus Aidan Miller? Hey, does David Wright 2.0 need help packing? If there is a package that the Phillies could create to make a move for Skubal, they should be entertaining it.

Realistic targets: Michael Lorenzen

It’s not the most desirable outcome for the team as simply keeping the status quo is probably more desirable than trading for someone like Lorenzen, but he is the aisle the team would probably be shopping in considering the quality of their prospects to trade away. Lorenzen had this insane desire to actually want to pitch in Colorado this year and as his numbers suggest, he’s kind of gotten what he’s asked for. He’d be someone to come in and give the team innings, something that maybe they could use if they decided to head to a six-man rotation in August, but he’s not someone they’d pitch in the playoffs at all. That’s something of a benchmark for making trades for a team like the Phillies.

Right handed starting outfielder

Dream target: Byron Buxton

Alright, here me out.

Buxton has for years been the über-talented, oft injured center fielder for the Twins, one that always seemed to put up great numbers in half the time. He is putting together yet another fantastic season, hitting .276/.335/.606 with 23 home runs at the plate, his defense in center field once again sublime and his contract more than palatable to absorb. For a team that is starved for any kind of production from the right side, Buxton would be the perfect salve for what ails them.

The issues?

Price tag and desire.

Buxton has already once refused to be traded from his humble abode in Minnesota. Understandable. Being traded from the organization that drafted, developed, played and ultimately extended you has to be something that would create massive upheaval in one’s life. Maybe Buxton was simply so comfortable with his surroundings last year, he didn’t wish to move. There haven’t been any more whispers of his waiving that no-trade clause he has in his contract, but one can never know exactly what would happen.

The other issue would be the price tag. Trading Buxton would be franchise altering for the Twins. They’d be moving someone that has grown with them into a star, someone who is quite productive and someone who has a contract that isn’t particularly burdensome. It would take a handsome price to pay for the Phillies to be able to pry him loose, likely detonating the top half of their prospect lists to facilitate a move.

Is that worth it?

Realistic targets: Jo Adell? Seiya Suzuki?

I suppose we have to identify these two as the ones the team should be pursuing the most as they have been named already as the targets the Phillies have already been asking about. Both are flawed, but possess something the Phillies have little of: right handed power.

Adell hit 37 home runs last year, yet managed an OPS below .800. That’s difficult to do. He has followed that up with a slugging percentage closer to .375 than .450, something of a problem. To say he struggles on defense would be an undersell, those home run robberies notwithstanding. He would fill that particular need on the Phillies, but would he do it well?

Suzuki is a pending free agent on a team that is looking to add for a postseason run, not really give players away. The Cubs are looking for starting pitching, something the Phillies are also looking to add a dash of themselves. He’s been good with his bad, made a surprisingly good recovery on defense in right field and would be playing regularly in an outfield that is currently without his type of profile.

Yet the Cubs are playing better and are going to need all the offensive help they can get for their own playoff push. Is there really even a match to be made here?

JT Benson

Week: 5 G, 16 AB, .250/.400/.813, 4 H, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 5 K, 0/1 SB (High-A)

2026 Season: 33 G, 116 AB, .276/.361/.578, 32 H, 10 2B, 5 3B, 5 HR, 11 BB, 36 K, 8/11 SB, .355 BABIP (Single-A) / 19 G, 63 AB, .238/.360/.460, 15 H, 6 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 8 BB, 20 K, 3/5 SB, .317 BABIP (High-A)

This was not a good week for the Mets minor league offense. In total, the St. Lucie Mets, Brooklyn Cyclones, Binghamton Rumble Ponies, and Syracuse Mets hit 16 home runs in a combined 24 games. Add in two triples and twenty-seven doubles, and that’s 45 total extra base hits over 24 games, which comes out to roughly two per game. JT Benson was responsible for 2 home runs and 4 extra base hits- 13% of all of the home runs hit this week and 8% of all of the extra base hits- and is our Mets minor league hitter of the week as a result.

Johnathon Tyler Benson was signed by the Mets this March. Previously, he attended the University of Louisville, where he played for three seasons, hitting a cumulative .284/.402/.494 in 128 games with 16 home runs, 51 stolen bases, and 66 walks to 96 strikeouts between 2022 and 2024. The outfielder went undrafted after graduating and played for the Lake Country DockHounds, an independent team in the American Association. There, he hit .286/.385/.418 in 27 games with 2 home runs, 9 stolen bases, and 9 walks to 19 strikeouts. The right-hander was unable to garner a contract with a major league team and returned to the indies in 2025, signing a contract with the Evansville Otters of the Frontier Association. There, he hit .295/.412/.477 in 80 games, with 10 home runs, 24 walks, and 45 walks to 67 strikeouts. He planned on returning to the DockHounds for the 2026 and had reached an agreement with team management, but the Mets offered him a minor league contract and he wisely did not turn the opportunity down.

The 24-year-old Benson was assigned to the Single-A St. Lucie Mets to begin his professional career and played with them for roughly a month and a half before being promoted to the High-A Brooklyn Cyclones. In 33 games with St. Lucie, the outfielder hit .276/.361/.578 with 5 home runs, 8 stolen bases, and 11 walks to 36 strikeouts and in 19 games with Brooklyn is currently hitting .238/.360/.460 with 2 home runs, 3 stolen bases, and 8 walks to 20 strikeouts. Altogether, in his first few months of professional baseball, Benson is hitting a cumulative .263/.361/.536 in 52 games with 16 doubles, 6 triples, 7 home runs, 11 stolen bases in 16 attempts, and 19 walks to 56 strikeouts.

At the plate, Benson stands slightly open, holding his hands high at the eyes, waggling his bat between one and three o’clock. He swings with a moderate leg lift, swinging with a bit of loft; while playing at St. Lucie, he regularly registered 100+ MPH exit velocities and launch angles in the 8-32 sweet spot. On the whole, he is a dead-red fastball hitter; while in St. Lucie, he hit .306/.405/.694 with a 25% Whiff Rate against fastballs, as opposed to .231/.286/.385 with a 50% Whiff Rate against breaking balls and .125/.125/.500 with a 50% Whiff rate against off-speed pitches.

Benson’s batted ball data is very encouraging. With the caveat that he is older than practically everybody else in the league and has much more experience than most, he currently has a 25.6% line drive rate, 33.3% groundball rate, and 41.0% flyball rate. While playing with the St. Lucie Mets earlier in the season, he had equally encouraging 34.2% line drive, 27.8% groundball, and 38.0% flyball rates. At both levels together, he has been pulling the ball at a 40.0% rate, going back up the middle at a 28.3% rate, and going to the opposite field at a 31.7% rate.

Putting the ball in play has been an issue for the outfielder, who had a 27.1% K% in St. Lucie and currently has a 28.2% K% with the Brooklyn Cyclones. Thanks to his extremely favorable spray tendencies, he was able to post a .355 BABIP in St. Lucie and is currently running a .342 BABIP with the Cyclones, and his success seemingly will be highly dependent on his ability to continue maintaining those favorable tendencies and maintaining that high BABIP, because, with a .237 batting average, Benson might quickly become untenable as a hitter if it begins dropping with a BABIP normalization.

Nicolas Carreno

Week: 1 G (1 GS), 6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K (High-A)

2026 Season: 11 G (6 GS), 41.2 IP, 23 H, 14 R, 9 ER (1.94 ERA), 21 BB, 58 K, .253 BABIP (Single-A) / 1 G (1 GS), 6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER (1.50 ERA), 2 BB, 9 K, .273 BABIP (High-A)

Venezuelan left-hander Nicolas Carreno was initially signed by the Pittsburgh Pirates back on January 15, 2023, signed to an undisclosed sum- as an undersized left-handed pitcher whose fastball sat 89-91, it is unlikely that the southpaw received much more than a token sum. The 17-year-old was assigned to one of Pittsburgh’s Dominican Summer League affiliates, the Pirates Black and posted a 10.50 ERA in 12.0 innings over 12 games, allowing 12 hits, walking 21, and striking out 17. He began the 2024 season assigned to their other DSL affiliate, the Pirates Gold, and had a bit more success; in 21.2 innings over 8 starts, he posted a 3.74 ERA, allowing 11 hits, walking 17, and striking out 36.

On July 30, 2024, the Pirates traded Carreno to the Mets in exchange for 29-year-old left-hander Josh Walker, who had a 5.11 ERA in 12.1 innings at the major league level and a 2.83 ERA in 28.2 innings with Triple-A Syracuse. Carreno was assigned to the DSL Mets Orange and made three more starts on the season, allowing 4 earned runs in 10.1 innings, giving up 8 hits, walking 7, and striking out 9. All in all, for the DSL Pirates and DSL Mets combined, the left-hander posted a cumulative 3.66 ERA in 32.2 innings over 11 starts, allowing 19 hits, walking 24, and striking out 45.

The 19-year-old was brought stateside in 2025, assigned to the FSL Mets. He appeared in 12 games for them, making 3 starts, and posted a 6.85 ERA in 22.1 innings, allowing 20 hits, walking 19, and striking out 25. He was promoted to Single-A St. Lucie at the end of August and appeared in 2 games for them, making 1 start. In 6.0 innings of work total, he allowed four runs but just one earned run, giving up 6 hits, walking none, and striking out 7. He remained with the St. Lucie Mets when the 2026 season started, and ended up appearing in 11 games, starting 6. The left-hander posted a 1.94 ERA in 41.2 innings, allowing 23 hits, walking 21, and striking out 58. He was promoted to the High-A Brooklyn Cyclones on June 11 and has since made a single start with them, which went quite well.

Carreno, who is listed at 5’10”, 155-pounds, has certainly put on some weight but looks every inch 5’10”. The left-hander throws from a slingy three-quarters arm slot with a long arm action through the back. So far this season, Carreno has relied on a three-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, a two-seam fastball, and a slider. He used his four-seam fastball about 30% of the time while pitching for St. Lucie, where statcast hookups can give us precise information about his pitches, his two-seam fastball also about 30% of the time, and his slider about 40% of the time.

Carreno’s four-seam fastball sits in the low-to-high-90s, averaging 95 MPH and topping out at 98 MPH. The pitch has averaged 2,500 RPM of spin and roughly 15 inches of induced vertical break, the former above-average for a four-seam fastball and the latter about average. Opposing batters are hitting .267/.452/.467 against the pitch with a 29% Whiff Rate; Carreno often has trouble throwing his fastball for strikes, leading to hittable, grooved pitches in the strike zone when the left-hander needs to throw one in the zone.

His two-seam fastball mirrors almost all of the metrics that his four-seam fastball produces except it has roughly 5 inches less of induced vertical break and about 4-8 additional inches of arm-side movement. He gets fewer swings-and-misses with the pitch but held opposing hitters in the Florida State League to a much more palatable .133/.235/.300 batting line.

By far, Carreno’s best pitch is his slider. The pitch sits in the low-80s-to-low-90s, averaging 86 MPH. With anywhere between 1-5 inches of horizontal movement, the pitch has sharp, cutter-like sudden slice and has carved up Florida State League hitters, limiting them to a .145/.272/.188 batting line with a 44.3% Whiff Rate. The left-hander is able to control and command the pitch better than his fastballs, and the pitch gets reliable swings-and-misses both inside and outside of the zone.

Earlier in his career, when he was still with the Pirates, he was working on adding a changeup to his repertoire, but the project has since been paused and/or cancelled, as the southpaw does not throw a change. As he progresses up the minor league ladder, he will need to develop a suitable third pitch to remain a viable pitcher, though the need for one diminishes a bit if his ultimate destiny is the bullpen, especially with how effective his slider has been.

Players of the Week 2026

Week One/Two (March 27-April 5): Hayden Senger/Cam Tilly

Week Three (April 7-April 12): A.J. Ewing/Christian Scott

Week Four (April 14-April 18): Randy Guzman/Jose Chirinos

Week Five (April 21-April 26): A.J. Ewing/Channing Austin

Week Six (April 30-May 3): A.J. Ewing/Jonah Tong

Week Seven (May 5-May 10): Ryan Clifford/Jonathan Santucci

Week Eight: (May 12-May 17): Jacob Reimer/Zach Thornton

Week Nine: (May 19-May 24): Ryan Clifford/Channing Austin

Week Ten: (May 26-May 31): Ryan Clifford/Jose Chirinos

Week Eleven: (June 2-June 7): Vincent Perozo/Frank Camarillo

This team is stupid. This season is stupid. This game makes WPA look stupid. It isn’t often that I look at a one-run deficit heading to the ninth and am pretty sure the Cubs will eventually walk the game off. I wasn’t sure it would be in the ninth. But I was pretty sure they’d get there. This was definitely a game where it felt like both teams were trying to give the game away, but the Rockies are a bit more adept at doing so.

By the third batter of the ninth inning, I was positive the Cubs would walk this one off barring something like a freak line-drive triple play. And make no mistake, I was factoring that in way beyond any reasonable estimate at the exact likelihood of that event. The Rockies certainly seemed incapable of throwing enough strikes down the stretch of this one to exploit the Cubs’ biggest weakness of striking out three straight times with runners in scoring position. Nor were they likely to even get a couple of weak pop-ups with the gas they were throwing. Any contact seemed likely to be a line drive.

I showed my Nostradamus skills and ability to go way out on tenuous limbs and predict that Pete Crow-Armstrong would eventually hit for the cycle. He’d already had one close call and one close-ish call this year. That felt to me a little like Jake Arrieta before he eventually threw a no-hitter. You just knew that Pete had all of the skills that would make a batter hit for a cycle. He blistered five balls on the day and very easily could have had a five hit cycle.

PCA’s game was one that almost certainly has people looking at WPA confused. I could say that both getting picked off and the sacrifice fly had significant adverse effects on the game. The pickoff of PCA flipped the momentum of the game. The Cubs had two singles, two walks and saw a Rockies wild pitch and didn’t score a run. Then, the Rockies hit a three-run homer in the top of the next inning. But somehow, PCA had a homer, triple, and double before the Rockies scored their first run and if he’d left the game at that point, PCA still wouldn’t make the podium in this game.

If I wanted to defend WPA, I’d say yeah but the Cubs flipped the script and scored a run in the eighth and two in the ninth to walk this off. So much of the equity is tied into those late clutch plays that helped walk it off, right? Then how the heck do I explain how Shōta Imanaga was the Superhero? Well, Imanaga was the Superhero of the first chunk of this game. He allowed one run over 5.2 innings of work. For WPA purposes, Phil Maton gets charged for the one run. But Matt Shaw is the hitting star of those first six innings, by way of his RBI triple to give the Cubs the lead in the sixth.

Then Shaw comes back and gets the walk off to nudge him into the Hero spot in this one. Pedro Ramirez gets a game-tying single in the ninth. That lands him the third spot. Ian Happ’s contribution to the walk off actually lands him fourth. No love from PCA for the cycle in a tight game. That’s about as tough a crowd as you’ll see. But we are watching PCA emerge as a potential Rizzo award winner. Michael Busch is no slouch, but PCA has gained three points on Busch over the last eight games, despite Busch being fairly hot too.

Only one team has fewer saves than the Cubs. That team has nine fewer wins (Angels). I’m not doing a research project on this, but off the top of my head, two of the 10 saves the Cubs do have are three-inning saves. No team has fewer save opportunities than the Cubs. The three teams tied with them for the least opportunities are at 29, 29 and 32 wins. And again, among the 21 save opportunities the Cubs have had are two three-inning saves. If I were going to deep dive these numbers, I would look into how many of the Cubs 11 blown saves were even in the ninth inning? Toss the two three-inning saves and all of the blown saves that were like this one, with the save being blown in the eighth. Not that those don’t count, but I’m looking for the number of actual ninth inning (or later), turn the ball over to a reliever to get three outs for a save. I’m pretty sure also that at least one of the saves is in extra innings.

I did peek quickly at the wins and I think it is one last at bat win, in addition to the nine walk offs. There was one game against the Dodgers in LA where the Cubs scored two runs in the ninth and won 6-4. Unless I’m forgetting a game that entered the ninth tied and ended up being a bit of a blowout, that’s the only last inning road win so far. But at 10 of 38 wins, that means that more than a quarter of this team’s wins are in the final inning. Simply wild. I don’t go down the rabbit holes often, but I wonder what the records are for walk offs and for last inning wins.

Positives:

• Pete Crow-Armstrong with the reverse cycle, giving the Cubs a lead off homer to get things started. He added a sacrifice fly that helped the comeback.
• Shōta Imanaga allowed one run over 5.2 innings.
• Pedro Ramirez came off the bench for two hits and drove in the tying run. I get the frustration that he’s not playing more, but I applaud that A) they are trying to pick spots to allow him to succeed and B) they didn’t shy away from getting him into a close game late and take key plate appearances.
• Matt Shaw got a start and made the most of it. Two hits, one a triple and the walk off walk.

Hat tips to Michael Conforto who had a nice plate appearance and drew a walk and Daniel Palencia who recovered from a lead off walk with three straight strikeouts.

Game 73, June 15: Cubs 5, Rockies 4 (38-35)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Shōta Imanaga (.294). 5.2 IP, 22 BF, 5 H, BB, ER, 3 K
• Hero: Matt Shaw (.286). 2-4, 3B, BB, 2 RBI, R
• Sidekick: Pedro Ramirez (.276). 2-2, RBI

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Caleb Thielbar (-.508). IP, 4 BF, H, ER, K
• Goat: Phil Maton (-.101). 0.1 IP, 3 BF, BB, HBP
• Kid: Michael Busch (-.099). 0-2, 2 BB, HBP

WPA Play of the Game: Cole Carrigg’s three-run homer off of Caleb Thielbar in the eighth inning turned a one run deficit to a two run lead. (.616)

Cubs Play of the Game: Ian Happ barely got a bat on a ball and bounced it back to Juan Mejia with a runner on first and no outs in the ninth, the Cubs down one. Mejia threw it into centerfield and the Cubs ended up with runners on first and third. (.329)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 72 Winner: There are ongoing issues with polls that Al and I are working on. Informally, it looked like about 4-3 in favor of Pete Crow-Armstrong over Ryan Rolison. Hopefully, that was a representative sample.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Michael Busch +25
• Pete Crow-Armstrong +15
• Ben Brown +12.5
• Michael Conforto +10
• Trent Thornton/Carson Kelly +7.5
• Matt Shaw/Jameson Taillon -8
• Phil Maton -10
• Caleb Thielbar -11
• Dansby Swanson -12
• Seiya Suzuki -23.5

Up Next: Game two of the three-game series. Edward Cabrera (4-3, 4.86) starts against Ryan Feltner (2-2, 5.20) in a rematch from a game the Cubs won 9-3 last Thursday. The Cubs scored six runs in just 4.1 innings off of Feltner and Cabrera held the Rockies to two runs over 5.1. It could help that the Rockies ended up using six relievers on Monday and the Cubs only four.

As we close in on the 2026 MLB Draft, the focus on who the Atlanta Braves are looking at for the ninth overall pick has come into focus a bit. Names like Georgia Tech outfielder Drew Burress, Arkansas catcher Ryder Helfrick, Kentucky shortstop Tyler Bell, and Florida prep lefty Gio Rojas seem to be the names most prominently linked to the club. Massachusetts prep lefty Brody Bumila is also a name that has received some buzz. My goal is to start to break down who these players are and their strengths and weaknesses to prepare you for the newest Braves prospect.

We will continue the series by staying locally with Tech All American outfielder Drew Burress, as his name is getting the most buzz right now.

Bio

Name: Drew Burress

Position: Centerfield

Height: 5’9”

Weight: 185

College: Georgia Tech

High School: Houston County HS (Warner Robins, GA)

Previously Drafted: N/A

Bats/Throws: R/R

Stats

2024: .381/.512/.821, 15 2B, 3 3B, 25 HR, 67 RBI, 8-10 SB, 58 BB, 37 K in 285 PA over 58 games

2024: .125/.282/.219, 3 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 3-4 SB, 13 BB, 22 K in 78 PA over 18 games in Cape Cod League

2025: .333/.469/.693, 23 2B, 1 3B, 19 HR, 62 RBI, 10-11 SB, 53 BB, 42 K in 290 PA over 60 games

2026: .358/.473/.657, 22 2B, 3 3B, 16 HR, 60 RBI, 10-14 SB, 49 BB, 43 K in 311 PA over 61 games

Hit 50/55

Burress came onto the scene as a true freshman and has never looked back, with an OPS of 1.130 being his lowest mark in three seasons. He’s never hit below .333 and because he is a patient hitter who will take his share of walks, he has never had an OBP lower than .469. He also struggled to hit with the wood bats in the Cape back in 2024 as well as last summer with the US National team – though to be fair that team as a whole struggled with the bats against Japan.

Two areas where Burress has struggled are against breaking balls and some offspeed. Against 76 to 79 MPH pitches he has slashed .091/.259/.136 with only an 84.2 MPH exit velocity, while in 55 plate appearances against sweepers he slashed .357/.471/.357. Those pitches, particularly low in the zone, have been able to beat him and are why I tend to go with the 50 hit tool grade instead of the 55 others may give, as I think better pitchers in the big leagues will be able to exploit that weakness better than college pitchers were able to.

Power 55

One of the biggest knocks on Burress is that his production has dropped each year at Tech, as his homers and slugging percentage have dropped in both 2025 and again in 2026. Still he hit 35 homers between those two seasons, thanks in part to a quick, compact swing with plenty of bat speed. His raw power is definitely plus, despite him being undersized – but I have him as more of a 55 grade, because I think that will play down slightly on the next level.

It’s known that Burress isn’t very big, probably a bit smaller than his listed 5’9 size. With that and the fact his exit velocities are more good than the elite numbers you would expect from a player with his power production, I tend to believe that his power may not play to it’s maximum in games as a pro. It is also worth noting on pitches between 94-97 MPH he slashed .375/.444/.438 in 16 at bats, with no at bats registered at velocities above that. His exit velocities on those pitches were high, but it is something we haven’t seen him show his power against.

Speed 55

Burress is an above average runner, who should have the speed to both have a real chance to stick in center and steal 20+ bases a year in the big leagues.

Glove 55

He’s got the speed and instincts to be an above average center fielder in the longterm. I would not be too worried about him having to move off the position, at least for the next 5-10 years. In the event he did have to move, his athleticism would be more than enough to slide to either corner and be an asset defensively.

Arm 60

The arm is a plus arm which means in the event that he couldn’t stick in center, he would be more than adequate if he moved over to right field. Not only is his arm big, but he’s displayed a strong ability to pick up the outfield assist – a skill not all big armed outfielders have mastered.

Overall

I like Burress, but at the same time I am not in love with him as a prospect. There are too many questions regarding his hit tool and even the power. I think his ceiling is probably more of a solid regular who hits sixth in a lineup, rather than a potential All Star you want in the heart of the order. When you’re picking at 9th overall, I tend to prefer upside, and am not sure that Burress has that, especially due to the fact his game seemed to take a step backwards ever since his breakout freshman season – rather than forwards.

I personally am a bit lower on Burress than any other rankings I’ve seen, but if the Braves drafted him he would probably rank in the Top 3 prospects in the system – behind Eric Hartman, and right there with Cam Caminiti and Tate Southisene. He could probably start his pro career in High-A Rome, though the Braves could do what they did with Alex Lodise and send him to Low-A to work with that coaching staff – a coaching staff excellent at working with hit tools. Depending on their plan for him, he could possibly make it to Atlanta by the end of next year to late in the 2028 season – but that depends on if they go aggressive or if they believe he needs more work on the hit tool.

2026 MLB Draft Preview: Justin Lebron scouting report.

The 2026 is about a month away — the first round kicks off on July 11, 2026 — so its time to start offering capsule looks at players the Texas Rangers could select with their top picks. The Rangers’ first round pick is at #16, their second round pick is at #54, and their third round pick is at #89.

Leading up to draft day, we will be doing writeups of some of the players who could end up getting selected by the Rangers with one of their first three picks. Today we are looking at University of Alabama shortstop Justin Lebron.

Justin Lebron is a 6’2”, 180 lb. righthanded hitting shortstop at the University of Alabama, where he has been a three year starter. Lebron was undrafted and largely off of folks’ radars out of high school in Florida. He turns 22 in November.

Lebron is a toolshed who Keith Law says would probably be the “obvious 1-1 pick” 30 years ago. The reports praise his bat speed and his ability to handle velocity. He also has impressive power, with his raw power grade projecting at 60 to 70. Unfortunately, he also has major contact issues, and struggles with pitch recognition. The result is a hit tool that lags behind everything else — if his hit tool profiled even as average, he’d be a top 3 pick.

Defensively, he’s a true shortstop who should have no problems sticking at the position, and who could be an above-average defender. He also has very good speed. MLB Pipeline says that all his tools other than his hit tool are plus, and Lebron gets good marks for his makeup and athleticism as well.

As a freshman, Lebron slashed .338/.429/.546, with 20 walks against 53 Ks in 254 plate appearances. He improved as a sophomore, slashing .316/.421/.636, with 18 homers, 68 Ks and 35 walks in 281 plate appearances while going 17 for 18 on the basepaths. His junior season has been more difficult, however — his slash line dropped to .277/.384/.536, with 27 walks against 56 Ks in 281 plate appearances, though he was an eye-popping 41 for 42 in stolen base attempts.

Baseball America has Lebron at #19 on their board. MLB Pipeline has Lebron at #9 on their board. Kiley McDaniel puts Lebron at #10 on his top 150 list. Keith Law’s rankings have Lebron at #14 on his board. Fangraphs has Lebron at #9 on their board. Baseball Prospectus has Lebron at #25 on their top 30 draft board.

In the June 8 Baseball America mock draft, Carlos Collazo has Lebron going to the Angels at #12, though he’s mentioned as a possibility with a number of teams, including as high as the Pirates at #5. The BA staff draft on June 15 has Lebron going to the Rangers at #16.  Jim Callis’s June 4 mock draft has Lebron going to the Astros at #17, but also mentions him in connection with several other teams, including the Rangers. Jonathan Mayo’s June 11 mock draft has Lebron going to the Nationals at #11, and mentions him in connection with the Rangers. Keith Law’s May mock draft has Lebron going to the Rangers. Law’s June 10 mock draft has Lebron going to the Astros at #17. Kiley McDaniel’s May 29 mock draft has Lebron going to the Astros at #17.

I’ve seen Lebron described as a big wild card in this draft, due to his extreme upside/extreme risk profile. He has arguably the most upside of anyone in the draft, but the pitch recognition issues and difficult against non-fastballs means that there’s big bust potential there that could scare teams in the top half of the first round off.

Lebron’s disappointing junior season would appear to have hurt his draft stock, although he picked things up late in the year, and impressed early on in the College World Series, though Alabama was eliminated yesterday. I saw multiple write-ups discuss him as fitting the profile that the Orioles, who pick 7th, like. He doesn’t seem to fit the profile of what the Rangers have gone after in the draft in recent years, though the upside may be high enough that Texas would roll the dice on him at #16.

Previously:

Liam Peterson

Tyler Bell

Aiden Robbins

Jared Grindlinger

Logan Reddemann

Cooper Harris

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

The Chicago Cubs picked up a high-scoring victory over the Colorado Rockies in the series opener.

My Rockies vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks are backing the home team to produce a similar outcome in Game 2.

Who will win Rockies vs Cubs today: Cubs -1.5 (+100)

Ryan Feltner owns a 3.86 ERA over the past 30 days despite an alarming 4.73 xFIP and 5.03 SIERA.

He has lucked out with an unsustainably low .174 BABIP, light years below his career average of .301.

He is not a good starter — he sits in the seventh percentile in Pitcher Run Value — and these red flags are catching up to him. The Chicago Cubs scored six runs on Feltner just a few days ago and should be heading for another strong output.

Back the Cubs on the run line to -110.

COVERS INTEL:The Cubs rank fifth in flyball rate against right-handed pitching at home, which sets them up for success with windy conditions expected to provide a boost to hitters.

Rockies vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (-110)

We’ve already discussed the good spot the Cubs are in to produce runs.

The Colorado Rockies have a nice matchup of their own against Edward Cabrera. The wheels have completely fallen off after a strong start to the campaign, with the veteran righty conceding at least three runs in eight of his past 10 games.

Cabrera ranks in the 23rd percentile in xERA, the 13th percentile in Pitcher Run Value, and the fourth percentile in barrel rate. That he is bleeding runs is no coincidence.

Windy conditions are also expected to help balls carry, creating a perfect environment for offense.

Play to -125.

Rockies vs Cubs odds

• Moneyline: Rockies +160 | Cubs -190
• Run line: Rockies +1.5 (-120) | Cubs -1.5 (+100)
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-110) | Under 9.5 (-110)

Rockies vs Cubs trend

Colorado has only hit the moneyline in 14 of its last 50 away games (-10.75 units, -22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rockies vs. Cubs.

How to watch Rockies vs Cubs and game info

Rockies vs Cubs latest injuries

Rockies vs Cubs weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.