As the trade deadline looms, the Marlins could have a serious impact on the league market, especially with attractive pitchers such as right-hander Edward Cabrera potentially available.
Cabrera, a "stuff" monster who has enchanted prospect hypers for years, offers a tantalizing five-pitch mix, including a dazzling, hard changeup.
If talent were the only quality involved, it’d be an easy call to urge the Mets to pursue a deal. But, of course, Cabrera is more complicated -- aren’t we all? -- and the idea of trading for him requires a deeper dive.
We’ll start with the givens: Cabrera has massive ability. The Mets have massive pitching needs, even though the early body of work they’ve banked left them with a 3.41 starters ERA entering Sunday, fifth-best in MLB. Only four teams were getting fewer innings per start than the Mets, which is increasing bullpen stress in Queens.
Even with their rotation seemingly whole now, the Mets need arms to navigate the rest of the regular season schedule and, they hope, well beyond. Is Cabrera an answer?
Let’s look at the pros and cons...
Pros
Despite his enormous promise, Cabrera, 27, has struggled to find consistency or even pitch consistently. This year, however, he might be blossoming. Entering play Sunday, Cabrera had a 3.61 ERA in 16 starts.
His overall ERA would be much more attractive (2.78) if you drop two April duds, in which he gave up a total of 10 earned runs in eight innings in starts against the Diamondbacks and Dodgers. In an 11-start span from May 4 to July 6, Cabrera had a 2.11 ERA.
His walk rate of 3.3 per nine innings would be the lowest of his career over a full season, and he’s already delivered 82.1 innings. He has never reached 100 innings in the majors before, but he will this year -- assuming he does not miss time because of an injury.
His changeup, which he throws the most, averages 93.8 mph. It’s the fourth-hardest changeup in MLB. He’s also increased the use of his 83 mph curve ball and that’s helped him -- opponents have a batting average of .129 on at-bats that end on the curve.
Cabrera also has a fastball that averages nearly 97 mph -- though, at times, he has trouble commanding it. That may explain why he throws it the least of any of his five pitches, including a sinker and slider.
Another pro: Cabrera, who's making $1.95 million this season, comes with club control for three seasons beyond this one. This means he isn't a free agent until after the 2028 season. He’s no rental.
Cons
What do you believe about his season? Breakout or mirage? And what about his injury history, which is part of the reason he hasn’t reached triple digits in innings pitched in any big league season?
A shoulder injury limited him in both 2023 and 2024, and he left his last start before the All-Star break this season with discomfort in his right elbow. He went for an MRI and it came back clean. He is scheduled to start Tuesday when the Marlins play the Padres.
Because he has so much club control remaining through arbitration, he’s much more valuable than a free-agent-to-be. But that also makes him more expensive in terms of trade chips, especially in a market that could be thin in available starting pitchers. Cabrera appears to have a lofty ceiling, too.
Yes, the club control is both a pro and a con. Weird, right? It is what it is.
And there’s also this: the Marlins entered play on Sunday only five games out of a playoff spot, sitting at 46-51 and in third place in the NL East.
They perhaps don’t profile as everybody’s most likely playoff team this season, but their lot in baseball life doesn’t exactly demand that they trade a pitcher like Cabrera right now, either. He’s not a pending free agent.
If the Marlins trade away controllable young studs, who’s going to fuel their ongoing rebuild? Then again, if they do trade a player with this much control -- who they presumably know better than anyone else -- what, exactly, does that mean?
Verdict
The Mets could use Cabrera -- who couldn’t, really? -- but this feels like a price tag that will soar quickly, unless the Diamondbacks and Twins flood the market with starters, too. Teams might be reluctant to part with top prospects because of his injury history, but the talent is there.
If Cabrera costs one premium prospect, it’s worth thinking about because of his age, the remaining control -- four pennant races total! -- and because he’s shown ability against big league beasts. Cabrera isn’t just a hopeful on a prospect list thriving in a league made up of generally-lesser players.