Category: Sports News

The Pittsburgh Pirates offense caught fire Tuesday night after a 12-1 victory over the Chicago Cubs. One of the bigger storylines from that game is rookie Esmerlyn Valdez hitting his second home run of the season in just his fourth game played.

Valdez hit his first home run of his Major League career against the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday night. The 22-year-old has now hit home runs in back to back games played since he did not play on Monday. He also has 5 RBIs so far on the season.  

Valdez has 12 at bats so far in his Major League career with two hits, both of those hits are home runs. The rookie has found his power which is a great sign for the Bucs especially with the injury of Ryan O’’hearn. 

The power has been great for Valdez but he has struggled with strike outs so far. In four games played he has struck out seven times including twice in Tuesday night’s games. There is also a concern about having no hits outside of those home runs. Consistency is important and although the power is great you want to see him get on base some more and get some more hits. 

This is a very promising start for Valdez and for the players on the Buccos. With Konnor Griffin playing well too the future is very bright in Pittsburgh. Although he played really well in the Minors, Valdez was only called up because of the Ryan O’hearn injury but if he continues to play and hit well then there might be a spot on this team. 

The Pirates have now won three games in a row including winning the first two games of a four-game series against the Cubs. That is massive news because the Bucs were just 3-10 vs Chicago last year, and they already have four wins this year. Pittsburgh has two more games in this series against the Cubs with Bubba Chandler and Paul Skenes set to pitch. 

It’s been a rough couple of weeks for Cubs baseball. Those two 10-game winning streaks feel like they were a long time ago as the Cubs dropped their 10th game in a row Tuesday night, falling 12-1 against the Pirates in Pittsburgh. It’s honestly an impressive amount of variance in their streakiness. The Cubs are in uncharted territory:

There’s a lot of offensive blame to go around, but today I wanted to focus on the hitting fortunes of one player in particular: Moisés Ballesteros. Ballesteros started off the season red hot with a .338/.392/.620 slashline, including five home runs en route to a 183 wRC+ through his first 79 plate appearances in March and April. That’s cooled off considerably with the rookie hitting just .100/.200/.160 with just one home run and a wRC+ of 18 through 59 May plate appearances. Today, let’s take a closer look at Ballesteros’ struggles at the plate, because the real hitter is probably somewhere between these two extremes.

The good news is this snapshot of Ballesteros’ skills and expected results is pretty positive for the young hitter. It would be nice if the Chase % and Whiff % were a little lower (more on that in a second) but the underlying metrics, including a 90th percentile Hard Hit %, an 11.7% Barrel %, an above league average K% of 18.7% and a similarly above average BB% of 11.2% are all pieces to build and hope on for Cubs fans, so what changed in May?

The below charts make a pretty compelling case that at least in the last 15 games or so, it’s just bad BABIP luck, first up Ballesteros’ 15-game rolling wOBA, BABIP and Hard Hit %:

This is far and away the closest correlation of three stats, but the Hard Hit rate has recovered in the last 15 games or so and nothing tracks closer to Ballesteros’ actual wOBA than his BABIP. That’s going to be a running trend in these charts. As a reminder, wOBA is a fancy on-base percentage that gives you more credit for extra base hits and BABIP measures your batting average on balls in play, literally, was it a hit or not. BABIPs tend to coalesce around a mean, but that mean is different for different players. Ballesteros currently has a pretty limited sample for his MLB BABIP, last season he ran a hot .349 through 66 plate appearances. He’s currently sitting at a .256 through 138 plate appearances. For reference, during his last two full seasons in MiLB he ran BABIPs of .323 and .315 through full season samples.

So that .256 is quite unlucky relative to Ballesteros’ previous results and it’s not being driven by hard hit rate, at least not recently. What about ground ball rate?

Adding ground ball rate to the equation helps us understand a bit of the problem, it’s inversely correlated to Ballesteros’ recent results, although it’s a little all over the place early in the season. A number worth keeping an eye on for sure, although maybe not as closely tied to Ballesteros’ overall results as his hard hit rate is.

Last, but certainly not least,

Last, but certainly not least, we can look at that wOBA and BABIP result correlated with Ballesteros’ strikeout rate. Again, like with his ground ball rate, we can see that when Ballesteros is striking out more, he’s getting worse results.

In the last month, Ballesteros’ BABIP luck has been pretty bad. That appears to be correlated with both an increased strikeout rate and an increased ground ball rate. So I wanted to see if there were possible explanations for either, and as you can see below Ballesteros is seeing a few more breaking pitches as the season progresses. It looks like an adjustment the league is making to him, he’ll need to adjust back:

The silver lining is that we may already be seeing Ballesteros adjust, just without the results yet. Check out his last 10-games of work (minus yesterday, which did have some weak contact and two strikeouts):

That’s a lot of hard contact along with more walks that strikeouts. Critically, it’s also a lot of hard contact in the air (admittedly sometimes too high in the air, but in the air).

It’s going to be a season of adjustments for Ballesteros, but I’m cautiously optimistic the young hitter is in the process of figuring out this most recent adjustment. His BABIP in May has been .114, that screams positive regression on the horizon.

After a blowout on Tuesday, the Royals announced that starting pitcher Bailey Falter has been designated for assignment. Falter gave up seven runs to the Yankees, recording just seven outs. Mason Black was recalled from Triple-A Omaha. Falter appeared in five games this year, giving up 15 runs in 9.2 innings for a 13.97 ERA.

The Royals acquired Falter last summer from the Pirates for first baseman Callan Moss and pitcher Evan Sisk. Falter had been a useful pitcher for Pittsburgh in 2025, with a 3.73 ERA in 22 starts, but a low strikeout rate and a 4.91 FIP suggested perhaps he had been a bit lucky. He gave up 15 runs in 12 innings with the Royals before they shut him down in August with a bicep contusion.

The Royals decided to bring Falter back on a one-year, $3.6 million deal, hoping he could help provide some rotation depth. He gave up five runs in 3.1 innings over his first two starts before the team put him on the Injured List with elbow inflammation. He returned in mid-May, and was used for a spot start last week against Boston as the Royals suffered injuries to their starting rotation. He was called on to start again for the Royals on Tuesday, but immediately ran into trouble, giving up three home runs.

After the game, Falter seemed displeased with being asked to start on short notice.

“I’ve been in the bullpen the past few days, been trying to do my bullpen routine,” Falter said. “Trying to stay ready, just in case I do get in the game. And then just another last-minute start. Kind of just throws a whole wrench in the plan.”

Falter ends his Royals career with the third-highest ERA in club history for anyone with at least ten innings. His contract is guaranteed, meaning the Royals are on the hook for the rest of his salary, unless he is claimed off waivers (minus the league minimum if he clears waivers and pitches for another MLB team).

Black was up earlier this year for the Royals and pitched 4.2 shutout innings over four games. The 26-year-old right-hander had a 6.53 ERA in 13 relief outings for Triple-A Omaha with 14 striekouts and 10 walks in 20.2 innings.

After dropping two of three to the Dodgers, the Brewers enter today’s finale against the Cardinals with a chance to complete a sweep and end their six-game homestand on a high note. Chad Patrick will go for Milwaukee opposite Dustin May.

This is Patrick’s first start since May 4, although it’s probably more of a multiple-inning opener situation than a true start for the right-hander, who hasn’t thrown more than four innings since April. Here’s what Brewers’ manager Pat Murphy said about his role a couple weeks ago:

“We know he’s a multiple-inning guy, but this role that he’s in right now could be used at the front end for four innings, or in the middle of the game for three or four innings, or in that one-inning role,” Murphy said.

Patrick has been excellent since moving to the bullpen, allowing just three total hits over 9 2/3 shutout innings while striking out nine.

Dustin May is the opposite of Patrick in that he’s made it through six innings in six of his last eight appearances. May’s season-long numbers (5.00 ERA, 1.426 WHIP) don’t look great, but that’s largely because he got shelled in his first two outings of the season. Since then, he’s been remarkably consistent, limiting opponents to three runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts.

Christian Yelich is back in the leadoff spot after going 3-for-5 last night. In fact, today’s lineup is… exactly the same as yesterday’s, which is kind of funny for a team that started the season with 47 straight unique lineups. Joey Ortiz and Andrew Vaughn will both come off the bench for the second straight game.

Today’s first pitch is set for 12:40 p.m. As usual, you can catch the game on Brewers.TV, WTMJ 620, and the Brewers Radio Network.

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We've got another beautiful slate filled with plenty of great matchups for us to sink our teeth into with our MLB player props.

This afternoon, I will be diving into a few total bases props, while also sprinkling on home runs from guys like Aaron Judge, Brandon Lowe, and Julio Rodriguez.

Let's dig in with my full MLB picks for Wednesday, May 27.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Brandon Lowe	Over 1.5 total bases	-101
Julio Rodriguez	Over 1.5 total bases	-114
Aaron Judge	Over 1.5 total bases	-112

Brandon Lowe Over 1.5 total bases (-101)

Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Brandon Lowe is one of baseball's most reliable bats when carrying an elite rating on Batters-Box. 

Through 80 elite ratings, his trends have been outstanding:

• 1+ hit: 80%
• 2+ bases: 47.5%
• Home run: 28.75%

Lowe has also surpassed 2+ bases in seven of his last elite ratings.

Tonight, he draws Chicago Cubs right-hander Jameson Taillon, who brings poorly rated matchup numbers in ISO and strikeout percentage to the table. All season long, the veteran starter has allowed left-handed hitters to elevate the baseball, owning just a 25.6% ground ball rate, and over his last 60 left-handed hitters faced, that number still sits at just 28.6%.

Not to mention, those lefties are making 47.6% hard contact with a 19.1% barrel rate, while Taillon owns a 4.05 HR/9 during that span.

With Lowe seeing the ball extremely well lately, sporting a .310 ISO and 18.1% barrel rate, getting this prop near plus money is mouthwatering.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marquee, SportsNet Pittsburgh

Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 total bases (-114)

It may have been two years since the last time I placed a wager on Seattle Mariners center fielder Julio Rodriguez, but today is a new day, and he finds himself in an all-time spot this evening against Athletics southpaw Jeffrey Springs.

The young star has been destroying lefties this season. Over his last 30 plate appearances against them, Rodriguez sports a .893 SLG, 1.326 OPS, and .560 wOBA, while making 54.5% hard contact with an 18.2% barrel rate.

On the other side, Springs has been getting torched by right-handed bats, carrying a 6.19 xERA and 4.98 xFIP over his last 60 batters faced, while allowing just a 32.6% ground ball rate and 2.92 HR/9. During that span, right-handed hitters own a .379 xBA, .692 xSLG, and .396 xwOBA against him.

Rodriguez also owns near 90% arsenal coverage against all of Springs’ offerings, so from top to bottom, this is a great spot for the young fella to have success at the dish.

I always mention that I am not a fan of paying juice for most props if I don't have to, but I think this spot is well worth it. At -114, this is a solid price for the matchup.

• Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Mariners.TV, NBC Sports California

Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases (-112)

Well, you can call me a liar, because I am piling on props that require laying some juice.

However, when it comes to New York Yankees captain Aaron Judge, this is the norm. The reigning AL MVP enters with the third-highest matchup rating on the day over on Batters-Box. When elite, Judge holds some of the most appealing and trustworthy trends in baseball, especially because of the sample sizes.

In 160 elite ratings away from home, Judge records:

• 1+ hit: 71.88%
• 2+ hits: 33.31%
• 2+ total bases: 49.38%
• Home run: 30%

He has also surpassed 2+ bases in six of his last 10 elite ratings on the road.

This evening, he draws Kansas City Royals left-hander Noah Cameron, who brings poorly rated matchup numbers in strikeout percentage and ISO. Early this season, the southpaw has struggled against right-handed hitters, allowing 45.9% hard contact with a 10.1% barrel rate, while opposing hitters are elevating the baseball 67.9% of the time.

Despite the sluggish start against left-handed pitching this season, Judge is still making 57.6% hard contact with a 21.2% barrel rate against southpaws. This matchup is simply too juicy to pass up.

Be sure to sprinkle his home run prop as well for a little added fun.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Amazon Prime Video, Royals.TV

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We've got MLB picks for nearly every time slot on today's schedule, with a play at 4:10 p.m., 6:30 p.m., and late night at 10:10 p.m.

Read on to see why you should tail our baseball experts in backing the Phillies, Rays, and Shohei Ohtani. 

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: PHI -1.5	+122
Jon Metler: TB ML	-108
Joe Osborne: COL/LAD u8.5	-122
Neil Parker: CHW ML	-104

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Phillies -1.5

Price: 45¢ (+122) at Polymarket

If I'm laying a run line, I want it with the road team... and one of the hottest pitchers in baseball, in Cristopher Sánchez. The left-hander hasn’t allowed a run in an absurd 37+ innings, and the Philadelphia Phillies have outscored opponents 21-2 over that stretch while going 3-1 ATS.

Another strong angle fading the Padres today, outside of facing Walker Buehler, is the schedule: The Friars are the only team making a cross-country trip for their next series, heading from San Diego to Washington to open a Friday set.

That 2,300-mile flight is one of the longest travel spots on the MLB board. It’s a strong getaway angle while also backing arguably the most in-form pitcher in baseball right now.

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: SDPA, NBCSP

Jon Metler's expert pick: Rays moneyline

Price: 52¢ (-108) at Polymarket

There haven’t been many bad spots to back the Tampa Bay Rays this season, but Wednesday sets up especially well. I price the Rays closer to 59-cent (-144) favorites against the Orioles.

At first glance, Baltimore’s lineup appears to have a platoon edge against left-hander Steven Matz, with right-handed power bats like Taylor Ward, Pete Alonso, and Tyler O'Neill near the top of the order. But Matz’s profile is built to counter that type of lineup; his sinking fastball and changeup work at the bottom of the zone, taking away the pull-side power those hitters rely on.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay can stack seven left-handed bats against right-hander Trey Gibson, and those hitters benefit from the more favorable dimensions at Oriole Park at Camden Yards following the left-field wall changes.

• Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
• How to watch: FS1

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Rockies/Dodgers Under 8.5

Price: 55¢ (-122) at Polymarket

Shohei Ohtani has been nearly untouchable at Dodger Stadium, allowing one earned run or fewer in all 11 of his regular-season home starts since joining the team.

Overall, he owns a ridiculous 0.73 ERA across his eight starts this season, with seven of those games staying Under the total. He's also backed by a Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen carrying a 1.29 ERA over the last two weeks, while the Colorado Rockies rank dead last in wRC+ during that stretch.

Tomoyuki Sugano may look like an amateur compared to Ohtani, but his numbers are far more respectable away from Coors Field, and eight of his 10 starts have gone Under.

• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: SNLA, COLR

Neil Parker's expert pick: White Sox moneyline

Price: 51¢ (-104) at Polymarket

The Chicago White Sox rank fifth in wOBA against left-handed starters this season and second in overall xwOBA while averaging 4.9 runs per game in May. Chicago righty Davis Martin is also dealing and sports an elite 2.04 ERA and 1.02 WHIP backed by a high-end 2.85 xFIP and 22.4 K-BB%. 

As a result, I give the edge to the White Sox on the mound and at the dish. The Minnesota Twins are countering with lefty Connor Prielipp, and in addition to him coming off his worst start of the season, the rookie’s 4.03 ERA and 4.34 xFIP are run-of-the-mill marks.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Twins.TV, CHSN

More MLB best bets for today

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It seems like a long time ago now, but the Royals were in the playoffs as recently as 2024. They vanquished the Baltimore Orioles, setting up a matchup against the Yankees in the ALDS.

The series was quickly developing a villain for Royals fans – Yankees infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. He had a cocky attitude and was unafraid to speak his mind. He had a controversial “safe call” in Game 1 when replays showed he might have been out, drawing the ire of Royals fans. Following a Game 2 win for Kansas City, Chisholm fanned those flames by calling the Royals “lucky.”

“It still feels the same, that we’re going to win it. I don’t feel like anybody feels any different. We’re going to go out there and do our thing still, we still don’t feel like any team is better than us. We had a lot of missed opportunities tonight, so they just got lucky.”

Still, the Royals were heading back to Kansas City with a chance to take the series at home and shut Chisholm up for good. Instead, the Yankees took the next two games to advance to the ALCS. A tough series, but the Royals looked like they were the young guns on the rise.

The Royals traveled back to New York the next April and were promptly swept. When the Yankees came to town that June, and Chisholm was still beefing with Royals infielder Maikel Garcia, who had drawn ire from the Yankees in the 2024 ALDS for an aggressive slide. It didn’t matter. The Royals still lost. Again and again. In six games against the Yankees in 2025, the Royals lost all six, scoring a total of 11 runs.

In 2026, there has not even been an illusion that the Royals are on the same level as the Yankees. Kansas City has stumbled out of the gate, including a three-game sweep in the Bronx where the Yankees outscored them 24-6. The beatings continued this week in Kansas City with a devastating ninth inning loss on Monday, and a shellacking on Tuesday that was effectively decided just as fans were getting comfortable in their seats.

So if you’re counting at home, the Royals have lost 13 games in a row to the New York Yankees. That is the worst stretch by any Royals team against their pinstriped enemies – the previous record was a 12-game losing streak by the 1997-98 Royals.

That’s right, no other Royals team has been as thoroughly dominated by the Yankees as this team.

Not the expansion franchise when it was first getting started with a collection of castoffs from around the league.

Not the up-and-coming Royals when they took on George Steinbrenner’s high-priced collection of free agents like Reggie Jackson.

Not the late-90s Royals, adrift without an owner, facing one of the greatest Yankees dynasties ever assembled.

Not even the slap-hitting clubs under Trey Hillman with Kyle Davies on the mound did this.

This team.

They’ve lost close games and blowouts. They’ve lost with Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Cole Ragans, and Kris Bubic on the mound. They’ve certainly lost with Bailey Falter on the mound (dear lord what were they thinking putting him out there?)

Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Ben Rice have each hit four home runs during this streak – Chisholm has hit two. The Royals are hitting .177 as a team over those 13 games. Maikel Garcia is hitting .106. Kyle Isbel is hitting .083. Isaac Collins has yet to get a hit in 13 tries.

The 2024 Royals did not feel like a fluke at the time. Even in defeat, the Royals looked like they belonged on that field. They had a superstar MVP candidate, a great pitching staff, some rising stars, and seemed like a team that would pay their dues that year, but use it to fuel them for deeper runs in subsequent years.

Now, less than two years later, the gap feels wider instead of narrower.

Sure, the Yankees have gotten better. They’ve spent more. But the Royals were supposed to have gotten better too. They’re spending a near-club record $140 million on payroll this year.

The most concerning part isn’t that the Royals keep losing to the Yankees. The Yankees are one of the best teams in baseball. Plenty of clubs lose to them.

It’s that the matchup has become so predictable.

The Yankees patiently wait for a hittable pitch. The Royals do not.

The Yankees hit mistakes over the wall. The Royals do not.

The Yankees turn a baserunner into a crooked number. The Royals turn baserunners into stranded runners.

The Yankees punish thin margins. The Royals have to play perfectly just to stay close.

In October 2024, the Royals looked like a young club knocking on the door. In May 2026, they look like a joke. They will have to spend the rest of this season proving the 2024 season wasn’t just dumb luck.