Category: Basketball

Ranking possible 2026 NBA Finals matchups: Thunder, Spurs, Knicks, Cavaliers originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

Then there were four.

The 2026 NBA playoffs has reached its penultimate stage with the conference finals next up.

Out West, it’s a matchup that’s been highly anticipated for a long, long time. The No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder will battle the No. 2 San Antonio Spurs. Both teams are stacked with depth and quality and are arguably the two best teams in the league. It might just be the real final series.

The Eastern Conference will feature the No. 3 New York Knicks and No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers. New York has been the best in the conference so far, while the Cavaliers are coming off a Game 7 blowout road win over the top-seeded Detroit Pistons.

So, which matchup combination would be the best for the NBA Finals? Let’s rank the four possibilities from least to most entertaining:

4. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

While it’s unique, the winner would likely be too predictable. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso, Jared McCain and more should be too much for a Cleveland core that is anchored by Donovan Mitchell, James Harden, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen and Max Strus. Mitchell and Harden are the main players who can create magic, but need to be more consistent. Doing so enough times to take down Oklahoma City in four games…seems too much to ask.

3. San Antonio Spurs vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

A similar scenario likely unfolds here. Victor Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie, Devin Vassell and more are a tough balance to take down. Cleveland won both battles this season with both matchups in December, but one did not feature Wembanyama. The two teams are different now, and San Antonio theoretically eliminating Oklahoma City should be enough momentum to defeat an inferior Cleveland side — unless Mobley and Allen rise to slow Wembanyama for four wins. It’d also be a new winner from last season regardless of the result.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New York Knicks

The Knicks take both of the top spots due to being the superior team in their conference. Barring a shock collapse, they should go through vs. Cleveland. So that puts Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart and OG Anunoby, among others, against Oklahoma City. Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren, Mitchell, Williams, and Caruso are the key Thunder pieces. The series likely comes down to Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Brunson. The back-to-back MVP should be the preferred victor, which would also make Oklahoma City back-to-back champions.

1. San Antonio Spurs vs. New York Knicks

No repeat bid on the line and two of the NBA’s most storied franchises hoping to end title droughts? This arguably is the best matchup. San Antonio’s drought since 2014 is undoubtedly shorter than New York’s wait since 1973. But that makes the stakes even bigger for Brunson and Co. to stamp themselves in the history books. They’d have to do so against a deep Spurs side that is anchored by Wembanyama, who is looking to make his own history at age 22 and in just his third season. San Antonio would also need Fox to stay consistent, but interest in this possibility should be the highest.

After reigning MVP and the runner-up for MVP in 2019, James Harden and the rest of the Houston Rockets gentlemen-swept the Utah Jazz 4-1 in April of 2019 and beat the Jazz for the second year in a row in the playoffs, the Jazz decided it was time to change it up and “upgrade” the roster. With a desire to improve their 3PT efficiency (10th & 12th in both 3PA/100 and 3PT% the prior two years), they moved on from two of their least efficient high-minute players, Ricky Rubio and Jae Crowder. Rubio’s contract expired in free agency, and rather than re-signing him for roughly $17M per year — the deal he ultimately signed with the Phoenix Suns — the Jazz instead opted to trade for 31-year-old point guard Mike Conley, who was making roughly $30.5M annually.

On July 6th, 2019, the Jazz traded Crowder, Grayson Allen, Kyle Korver, the draft rights to Darius Bazley, and a future 1st-round pick (which ultimately became Walker Kessler) to the Memphis Grizzlies for Conley. That’s a hefty price for an aging guard who was already approaching the back end of his prime. Now, Mike Conley was a fantastic guard; Mike was an excellent facilitator, and despite being undersized, he still found ways to make opposing teams feel his presence on the defensive end in one way or another. Remember, the Jazz’s goal for the offseason was to help Donovan Mitchell with the scoring load while still not overtasking him with ball-handling responsibilities, and Mike Conley offered just that. Conley was joining the Jazz after shooting 37.4% from 3PT land on 4 attempts per game over the last 10 years of his career — it’s safe to say that he had a burner on him — and in that same span, he averaged 6 assists per game. There was no doubt that he could bring positive value and still carry an offense when Donovan Mitchell was off the floor — something Ricky Rubio didn’t do.

However, a question still lies: Did Mike Conley cover enough of the margins to be “better” than Ricky Rubio?

Excusing opponent 3PT data, there was still a +1.7 net point differential in favor of Conley. The Jazz successfully found a player who carried a more efficient offense

The switch from Rubio in 2018-19 to Mike Conley in 2019-20 was felt. The Utah Jazz jumped from the 13th-ranked offense in the NBA to #1 the following year. Conely boosting team TS% data was bound to happen when you supplant a career 41.7% eFG shooter (Rubio) for a player who shot ~11.0 eFG points better for their career (Conley). The offensive rebounding data is lineup noise due to playing with Gobert and Derrick Favors, who were one of the better off. glass crashing tandems in the NBA, but Conely brought a steadier offense with lower TOV rates, and because he left a larger 3PT footprint on games in both his passing and scoring.

When you’re comparing these two fantastic guards through the lens of a complementary role, I think it should be important how they’re complementing the players who were considered the best players on the team.

One thing I found interesting is that despite Rubio heavily favoring rim assists and how much he had the ball, Gobert’s FGA did NOT drop, and he still got his (relative to his average season & surrounding season FGA/FGA per 100 numbers):

Now let’s look at Conley & Rubio with Donovan Mitchell:

Now I find this SUPER interesting and there’s a lot to unpack here. While there is a +3 point differential in overall ORTG (in favor of Conley), there is only a marginal +1.6 difference in team TS%. It’s important to note that even while Rubio wasn’t efficient, he was still boosting the shot quality for everybody else on the basketball court at a high level.

It’s hard to say if the point guard context played a role in Donovan Mitchell’s overall efficiency numbers or if it was just a 3Y improvement like we typically see in budding young players, but if there’s one thing that’s certain regarding this side-by-side, it’s that Ricky improved Donovan’s overall shot quality more than Mike did. Now, because Donovan is a score-first guard whose offense is heavily slanted towards shot-making, he needs a real playmaking infrastructure around him. Donovan’s playstyle is largely complementary in a high-usage way. What I mean by that is that while he CAN pass the ball, he won’t do it at volume on a rate basis just due to the score-first nature of his game and how he operates. He is a high-volume second-side ball handler whose imprint on team offenses is boosting team TS% and TOV%, except he boosts each of those because he is efficient overall, and he takes a lot of shots (taking a lot of shots = less passes = ultimately lowering TOV%) — the ball falls a lot, but when it comes to enhancing his teammates and providing offensive ancillary goodness, that’s where he needs help.

Accounting for Donovan Mitchell’s style of basketball, and going back to Mike Conley vs Ricky Rubio, the player who complemented Donovan better overall while still increasing teammate productivity and providing ancillary goodness was probably Ricky Rubio.

I’ve talked about Mike Conley having better TO value over Ricky, but his worst years in passing TOVs were his years with the Jazz, which is highly uncharacteristic of him from an entire career standpoint.

The spacing was already an issue, but when you have a team that turns the ball over a lot, paired with NO playmaking outside of Rubio and Joe Ingles, it’s suboptimal for a lead guard! There is a real chance the Utah Jazz missed out on building WITH Ricky Rubio as the orchestrator and primary facilitator of the offense due to, primarily, just caring about “ball-goes-in” hoops. The Utah Jazz did the worst possible job when it came to maximizing Ricky Rubio’s talent and putting an optimal team around him.

Defense:

I’ve already stated that Conley found ways to make his presence known on defense despite his size, but his impact was incomparable to Ricky’s productivity on that end.

Ricky forced significantly more opponent turnovers, whether that be from drawing charges, fighting through, and drawing illegal screens, nabbing steals in the POA, or simply just using his IQ, reading the defense, and breaking up plays by defending in the passing lanes. He was widely used as a punching bag throughout the league because of how physical he was and how he annoyed players by simply being a pest; because he was such a nuisance on defense, the players would beat up on him even more.

Jeff Teague shoves Ricky Rubio to the floor and into the stands:

Defense is what makes Rubio stand out in the lineup data; Rubio covered a lot of the defensive flaws that the Jazz and Donovan Mitchell had. After Rubio departed from the Jazz, Utah’s defense went from the 1st and 2nd-ranked defense in back-to-back years to the 13th, 3rd, and 10th-ranked defense in each season with the trio of Conley, Mitchell, and Gobert — and that difference says a lot when you have one of the best paint defenders ever to play the game on the back line.

Rubio also added great rebounding value to the team, averaging 4 rebounds a game and a dREB% of 13.1 for his career at 6’2 is valuable stuff.

While Ricky Rubio had his flaws, he covered so much on the margins where I conclusively believe that the Utah Jazz missed out on a path that could have brought them to greater heights than a second-round exit. However, I do think that Mike Conley did exactly what the Utah Jazz wanted him to do, and he did it very well. The Jazz were very blessed to have these two greats play in purple.

BRIEF ANALYSIS OF THE BOJAN SIGNING:

What has been deemed the 2nd-best free agent signing in franchise history, the Utah Jazz signed Bojan Bogdanovic to a 4-year, $72M contract (~$18M AAV). My belief is that the Utah Jazz were so hyper-fixated on “ball-goes-in” hoops that they didn’t realize he didn’t do much else. He was a very turnover-prone forward who had positional size whose role was to score, and that he did.

Bojan was an abysmal defender who did not rebound the ball well at all. Which is something you’d expect from an aging forward. (No wonder the Utah Jazz only got Kelly Olynyk and Saben Lee when they shipped Bojan to Detroit)

Though the Jazz got what they wanted, they lost a significant amount on the margins. My favorite saying in basketball is “if the ball isn’t falling, WHAT DO YOU DO?” and Bojan didn’t have much to offer when the ball wasn’t falling; in fact, he was a liability.

SIDE THOUGHT: The Utah Jazz could’ve had the same impact, and if not better, had they not traded Grayson Allen to the Memphis Grizzlies for Conley (just at a different position).

After signing Bojan and trading for Mike Conley, they took up $50M of the Utah Jazz’s $118M active cap, while they were already -$18M deep into the entire cap as a whole — Bojan and Conley took up ~42% of our active cap. With Rudy Gobert on the brink of a new max contract in 2021 and Donovan Mitchell approaching a rookie extension, along with losing both depth & additive players on the margins, the Utah Jazz were dead in the water before they even swam.

The 2019 Utah Jazz offseason will go down as one of the most detrimental offseasons in franchise history. Every dream of watching Donovan Mitchell in his prime while playing next to Rudy Gobert in a Utah Jazz uniform was killed in 2019.

Naz Reid has some strong ideas on what it will take for the Timberwolves to take it to the next level.

Minnesota lost to the Spurs in Game 6 on Friday, which ended its season in the Western Conference semifinals.

The Timberwolves reached the Western Conference finals in back-to-back seasons before this year.

In the end-of-season media availability, Reid — a former Sixth Man of the Year winner who has developed from an undrafted rookie in 2019 to one of the core players during his tenure — spoke on why the team keeps falling short.

“Probably just moodiness. You look at both of those teams, and they’re playing for one another,” Reid said, referring to the Spurs and Thunder, who will play in the Western Conference finals.

“They’re excited to be on the court with one another. They’re a team where they’re selfless, like I mentioned before. So I think just probably some of those aspects. I think we have more than enough talent. I think we have more than enough guys bringing it to the table and can compete at a high level, but just being less moody. I think that’s just the name of the game for us, just being less moody and more selfless and just carrying ourselves with championship aspirations like we’ve done before.” 

There’s online speculation among Minnesota fans and NBA observers as to whether or not this is a jab at Julius Randle, in particular.

In the season-ending 139-109 loss, Randle shot 1-for-8 with three points and was a team-worst -34 in just 24 minutes.

Reid, who had 18 points on 7-of-13 shooting, along with seven boards, averaged 12.6 points and 7.3 rebounds on 48.4 percent shooting from the field and 40 percent shooting from deep in 12 playoff games this year.

It was Reid’s best postseason performance, statistically, in his career.

Notably, the Timberwolves have some financial concerns to address, with Rudy Gobert ($36 million) and Randle ($33 million) entering the second-to-last year of their respective contracts, with player options to follow for the 2027-28 season — making them potential free agents next year and potential trade targets for Minnesota this summer.

Reid will make north of $23 million next season and will be on the second year of a five-year extension, keeping him under contract for the rest of the decade, with a player option for 2029-2030.

Tonight, the Detroit Pistons play the Cleveland Cavaliers. Coverage starts at 7:30 PM ET on Prime Video. Tip off is at 8 p.m. ET. Winner goes to the Eastern Conference Finals. Chat away!

The Thunder swept their way to the Conference Finals. The Spurs were dominant but had to fight harder to get there. Who comes into the matchup in better shape? 

Marilyn Dubinski: I think both teams have their advantages and disadvantages.  There is no doubt that the Spurs are the more battle-tested team, while the Thunder had about the easiest path to the WCF imaginable, but they are the defending champions. They know what it takes to win it all, so does that actually matter? There’s also the matter of rest vs. rhythm: the Thunder are certainly more rested and fresh, but will that translate to rust?  It did for the Spurs between the first and second round, but the Thunder still won their game 1 against the Lakers comfortably.  I think both teams will be so hyped for this match-up that it doesn’t matter.

Mark Barrington: It’s hard to say, but the Spurs definitely needed to be challenged to be playoff-ready, and the rugged nature of the first two rounds was good preparation for the conference finals. The players on the Thunder already have plenty of playoff experience, so the fact that they had an easy time with their first two rounds shouldn’t be a problem for them. I think the best news for the Spurs is that the only player who is nicked up going into OKC is De’Aaron Fox with a sore ankle, and he seemed well enough to score at will against the Timberwolves in Game 6 of the conference semifinals. Jalen Williams has missed a lot of time for the Thunder, and even though he’s expected to be back for the series against the Spurs, he may be a little rusty.

Bill Huan: I don’t think either team has a “readiness” advantage over the other. They’re both firing on all cylinders and have undoubtedly been the two best teams in the league since the All-Star break. With that said, the type of confidence they exude is entirely different. The Thunder are quiet and laid back: they know exactly what they are and have been here before. On the other hand, the Spurs are the new, raucous kids whose belief that they can win it all borders on arrogance, even when they don’t know what to expect on the journey to the promised land. San Antonio’s inexperience and fearlessness are both a blessing and a curse, and only time will tell which side of the coin they’ll fall on. 

Jeje Gomez: I would have said the Spurs were in a better spot because they have overcome adversity and are in rhythm, but the injury report from the last Timberwolves game changed my outlook. Having both De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper listed as questionable, seeing Fox potentially reaggravating his ankle issue, and hearing Mitch Johnson saying he wasn’t sure if they were going to suit up was a little scary. Maybe the Spurs were being overly cautious with them. Maybe Fox just needed to get his ankle retaped — he returned to action after going to the locker room after all. They both looked good out there. But heading into what will be a physical battle against a hyper-aggressive perimeter defense, I would have taken health over lack of rust.

The Spurs clearly don’t like the Thunder and dominated the season series. Will their previous success against OKC give San Antonio a valuable confidence boost, or are the playoffs just a different animal?

Dubinski: While the regular season matchups will certainly give them a confidence boost in the sense that they know what it takes to beat this team and there’s no reason to think it ends here (I remember that feeling from 2018 against the Warriors), I think they and everyone else know the playoffs are a different animal, especially without homecourt advantage.  Look no further than the second round: the regular season and recent history in Minnesota suggested the Timberwolves had the Spurs’ number, but that ended up not being the case.  The Thunder will be highly motivated after having to listen to the narrative that the Spurs were better since December, so put the regular season in the past and expect a dog fight.

Barrington: The Spurs last played the Thunder on February 4, which is … about 3 and a half months ago. The Spurs have definitely improved since then, but Mark Daigneault has had plenty of time to dissect the tape and come up with strategies to handle a seven-and-a-half-foot alien on the court disrupting their offensive game. The Spurs game is based on speed and passing, and the Thunder’s defense will employ a Timberwolves-style defense based on physicality and taking away passing lanes. OKC has a more talented roster, so the Spurs won’t be able to pick on the weakest link as much as they were able to in the semis. 

While the Spurs having a 4-1 advantage over the Thunder in the regular season is an encouraging sign, it’s not going to be good enough for the Spurs to play as well as they did in the regular season to win this series. They are going to have to play with a lot of crispness and also with a lot of energy. The Spurs are better than they were when they beat the Thunder 4 out of 5 games in the middle of the season, but so are the Thunder. It’s going to be a tough series, and I expect it to be close throughout. 

Huan: If there’s one thing that could make this boisterous Spurs team even more confident, it would be their 4-1 regular-season record against the Thunder. On the flip side, I think that OKC will be more motivated to beat a team many have proclaimed to be their kryptonite, too. While there are key matchup advantages that the Spurs can take away from those regular-season games, Mark also makes a good point in that the Thunder has had time to game-plan against the walking mismatch that is Wemby. Ultimately, both teams should feel good about their chances going into this series. 

Gomez: This Spurs team is fearless, so they would have thought they had a chance even if they had lost the season series, but those four wins probably make them feel even more confident, which could be big if they face some struggles early. It’s possible the Thunder take the first couple of games at home or completely dominate on their way to a blowout win on Game 1, because they are that good. If that were to happen to a team that has traditionally struggled against them, it could have been tough to recover mentally. But the Spurs know those guys are human and beatable, which should help them bounce back if something goes wrong.

Prediction time: how do you think the series will play out, and who do you think will reach the Finals?

Dubinski: I hate predictions, but my gut instinct is saying Spurs in six. Maybe it’s just wishful thinking, but I see the Spurs taking 1 of 2 in OKC, either sweeping Games 3 and 4 in San Antonio or getting one of two but stealing Game 5, and then returning to SA to close out the series in Game 6.  A lot of this will depend on Victor Wembanyama staying under control and the guards continuing to dominate, which will be a lot harder in this round than the last two, but they have what it takes.  

Barrington:.To be honest, my predictor is broken for this series. I really hope the Spurs come out strong in Game 1 and out-execute a Thunder squad that hasn’t had to work hard yet this postseason. I think Game 1 is going to be the Spurs’ best chance to take over home court advantage and put the Thunder on their back foot early. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets turned around and the home crowd propels OKC to a big early win. Anything can happen, and that’s why sports are fun (and stressful) to watch. 

I think overall, the teams are pretty evenly matched. The Thunder are the defending champs, and they have a huge experience advantage, but the Spurs are fast learners and they somehow look like playoff veterans after 11 total games so far in the last month. I expect that it will be a very tough series for both teams, but the Spurs have Wembanyama, and the Thunder don’t. Spurs in seven. 

Huan: Man, oh man… will I be kicked off the site for picking the Thunder? I think the Spurs have a higher ceiling when everything is humming, but I also have faith in OKC finding ways to stop them from reaching those heights. San Antonio has surpassed every expectation this season and could absolutely blitz their way to the title, but I still think that the Thunder are the better team (even if the Spurs are a bad matchup for them), who will be able to come up with reliable counters against Wemby. I say they manage to go back-to-back, but it’ll be the Spurs’ time next year.

OKC in 7. 

Gomez: The safe bet right now, before the series starts, is Thunder in six or seven games. As good as the Spurs have been since the All-Star break and in the playoffs, OKC has been better. They have an experienced championship core and have added even more talent to it with the ascent of Ajay Mitchell and the trade for Jared McCain. SGA can be unstoppable at times, and their defense is great. They are the favorites for a reason.

What would happen if the Spurs come out swinging and take homecourt advantage, though? The downside of being as good as Oklahoma City has been is that you get unfamiliar and potentially uncomfortable with adversity. If it goes long and is close, I think the Thunder will win, but I can see a world in which San Antonio shocks them early and puts them away before they can regroup.

Ranking possible 2026 NBA Finals matchups: Thunder, Spurs, Knicks, Cavaliers originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area

Then there were four.

The 2026 NBA playoffs has reached its penultimate stage with the conference finals next up.

Out West, it’s a matchup that’s been highly anticipated for a long, long time. The No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder will battle the No. 2 San Antonio Spurs. Both teams are stacked with depth and quality and are arguably the two best teams in the league. It might just be the real final series.

The Eastern Conference will feature the No. 3 New York Knicks and No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers. New York has been the best in the conference so far, while the Cavaliers are coming off a Game 7 blowout road win over the top-seeded Detroit Pistons.

So, which matchup combination would be the best for the NBA Finals? Let’s rank the four possibilities from least to most entertaining:

4. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

While it’s unique, the winner would likely be too predictable. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso, Jared McCain and more should be too much for a Cleveland core that is anchored by Donovan Mitchell, James Harden, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen and Max Strus. Mitchell and Harden are the main players who can create magic, but need to be more consistent. Doing so enough times to take down Oklahoma City in four games…seems too much to ask.

3. San Antonio Spurs vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

A similar scenario likely unfolds here. Victor Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie, Devin Vassell and more are a tough balance to take down. Cleveland won both battles this season with both matchups in December, but one did not feature Wembanyama. The two teams are different now, and San Antonio theoretically eliminating Oklahoma City should be enough momentum to defeat an inferior Cleveland side — unless Mobley and Allen rise to slow Wembanyama for four wins. It’d also be a new winner from last season regardless of the result.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New York Knicks

The Knicks take both of the top spots due to being the superior team in their conference. Barring a shock collapse, they should go through vs. Cleveland. So that puts Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart and OG Anunoby, among others, against Oklahoma City. Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren, Mitchell, Williams, and Caruso are the key Thunder pieces. The series likely comes down to Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Brunson. The back-to-back MVP should be the preferred victor, which would also make Oklahoma City back-to-back champions.

1. San Antonio Spurs vs. New York Knicks

No repeat bid on the line and two of the NBA’s most storied franchises hoping to end title droughts? This arguably is the best matchup. San Antonio’s drought since 2014 is undoubtedly shorter than New York’s wait since 1973. But that makes the stakes even bigger for Brunson and Co. to stamp themselves in the history books. They’d have to do so against a deep Spurs side that is anchored by Wembanyama, who is looking to make his own history at age 22 and in just his third season. San Antonio would also need Fox to stay consistent, but interest in this possibility should be the highest.

Despite being one of the league’s very best at it this season, shooting threes still isn’t really Rui Hachimura’s “thing.” In fact, he downright doesn’t like it.

When Rui joined the Lakers, he was known as an efficient mid-range scorer. However, in a league where shots were being pushed to the rim or the 3-point line, a high-volume mid-range scorer would get lost in the void if he didn’t adapt.

It’s hard to understate how impressive Rui’s development has been from range. With the Wizards, he shot just 35.6% from three in his three-and-a-half seasons. In the same span with the Lakers, he’s a 41.5% shooter from range.

The greatest shooting stretch of Rui’s season came in the most recent playoffs when he shot a sizzling 33-58 (56.9%) from range in 10 games. After the Lakers were eliminated, Rui spoke about his shooting and gave a shoutout to a former Lakers assistant coach for his improvement.

“Shout out to coach Phil [Handy],” Rui said. “Phil Handy, he was the one that talked me through a lot of stuff, what I can do to stay in this league. Not only this team, but stay in this league. I can make an impact on this team, especially. The first thing that he talked about is 3-pointers.

“I think that was the biggest thing for me because, honestly, I don’t like shooting threes. That’s not my thing for me. For me, I don’t really like it. But with the team situation, how [head coach] JJ [Redick] coaches, he wants me to shoot a lot of threes. It was a different game for me, but I had to do it. That was the biggest thing that I think changed.”

Left mostly to his own devices in Washington, Rui was 3-point adverse. His 3-point rate — the percentage of his field goal attempts that were threes — was just 23%. In Los Angeles, it has increased each year, peaking at 43.9% during this regular season and 47.5% in the playoffs.

Similarly, in Washington, shots from 10 feet to the 3-point line — or roughly the mid-range area — comprised 32.2% of Rui’s shot diet. With the Lakers, that number has dwindled to 20.1%.

The Lakers actually acquiesced some this season with Rui’s mid-range volume increasing after back-to-back seasons where it was under 17%. Still, he’s predominantly shooting 3-pointers now and is really good at them.

Not only has it helped extend his career and set him up for a big contract this summer, it’s also helped the Lakers be a more dangerous team.

So, shoutout to Phil Handy indeed.

You can follow Jacob on Twitter at @JacobRude or on Bluesky at @jacobrude.bsky.social.

Once upon a time I was a grad student, a Chinese food delivery driver and a New York Jets fan, and therefore poor, hustling and doomed. That year —2004 — the Jets had been good, though. Really quite good, and “good” was a word my father and I avoided like the plague when it came to Gang Green. But we’d both seen enough to know these Jets were not the same old Jets.

It wasn’t just how much they were winning (by Jets standards), but how they looked winning. Shaun Ellis and Jonathan Abraham combined for 20.5 sacks. Curtis Martin was incredible. Santana Moss was the home run threat. Chad Pennington was a good quarterback and a Jet, both at the same time, an event rarer than Big Bangs. By the time they met 15-1 Pittsburgh in the second round I’d told everyone I knew to remember they heard it from me first: the Jets would win.

They didn’t. Doug Brien missed two field goals in the last two minutes that would’ve won the game, sending the Jets to an NFL-record third straight overtime game, a bridge too far.

Today, three graduate programs and many pant sizes later, I am a writer, a Knicks fan and a socialist, and therefore poor, happy and hopeful. This year’s Knicks are the rich man’s ‘04 Jets, with the only kicking they’ve had to deal being them kicking some Hawk and Sixer ass all over the ****ing place. Since then they’ve had over a week to rest, recover, practice, and watch the Cavaliers and Pistons go the full 12 rounds. For a few more precious days, Knicksville is all love and light.

So let’s have fun with it. Say a genie told you you get one very specific wish: what one single play would you want the Knicks to win the title via? To go down in history as the most famous moment in franchise — nay, league history?! A halfcourt heave? A rejection at the rim? Another tedious video review?

Here are my contenders. What are yours?

BREAKAWAY DUNK

Oklahoma City. June. Game 7. Tie game. Thunder have the ball in the dying seconds. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander beats his man off the dribble, never noticing another defender swoop in for the swipe, go the length of the floor and throw down the title-clinching dunk. Who should it be?

Bear in mind this dunk will be both the greatest moment of your life and a highlight replayed more than any in human history. So for me it comes down to two choices: Mitchell Robinson and Deuce McBride. Mitch is the longest-tenured Knick and a real rim-rocker given an open runway. To win the title on a Mitch breakaway would be poetic and powerful.

But I gotta go with Deuce. He’s number two on the longevity trip, already a legendary Knick, if not a legendary NBAer, period. How many players have ever heard their name chanted as often as McBride has — in all 30 arenas? And when Deuce gets some runway, he can get up and go get it.

Little man dunks age better than bigs’. You ever see those NBATV commercials that are five-second highlights super slow-motioned and stretched into 30-second spots? Deuce dunking would look better there than Mitch. Advantage: McBride.

FACIAL

Karl-Anthony Towns is a bit too Kevin Knox for me when he winds up for a big slam; odds are there’s going to be any result other than an and-one. If Mitch were driving for the title-winning dunk, the defense would tase him before they’d let him anywhere near the rim. Mikal Bridges has his moments.

But it’s gotta be OG Anunoby. Like NEO from The Matrix, OG seems to have figured out godhood. If you’re 6-foot-8, 240 pounds, a plus 3-point shooter and leap like a pogo stick on flubber, there aren’t too many bipeds around who can stop you. Honestly, my throat is still hoarse from screaming at this two years ago. After John Starks’ “The Dunk,” this may be my favorite Knick dunk ever.

And while I think I have a pretty fertile imagination, I cannot remotely envision what kind of emotional response — if any — Anunoby would flash after winning the title on a facial. I’d sure like to find out.

HALFCOURT DUNK

Think it’s impossible? At any point in your life prior to a couple weeks ago, would you ever have considered it possible that the Knicks would replicate Golden State’s Steph Curry/Mark Jackson/Steve Kerr troika with Jalen Brunson/Tom Thibodeau/Mike Brown? Imagine telling yourself that four years ago. And what is dunking, if not possibility persevering?

So let’s say the Knicks force a turnover in the dying seconds of Game 7, score tied, and whoever’s dribbling up the floor, fueled by adrenaline (and Mike & Ike’s, if it’s Josh Hart), gathers, take two steps and zip explodes through the air like horizontal lightning, dunking just as the clock expires.

I gotta go with Bridges. He’s already so long to begin with, I can picture his limbs stretching and stretching into forever, como Mister Fantastic. Also intrigued by Hart here, mainly because it doesn’t seem like something he should be able to do, which is the foundation of everything Hart’s game is about.

HALFCOURT HEAVE

The 1980 season was the NBA’s first with the 3-point line. Had it existed 10 years earlier, the Knicks might have lost the 1970 Finals.

I’d say it’s high time the basketball gods paid New York back with interest for that little miracle. What if, down two with time expiring, a Knick were to launch from 60-feet out and make the shot? Beggars can’t be choosers, but these days we’re dreamers, and dreamers can. Who would you wanna see make it?

Color this bitch basic, but I say Brunson. Not only because he’s so good or so easy to root for, but because with all the sacrifices he’s made in leading this franchise to where they stand today, as selfless a player and teammate as he seems to be, it’d feel deserved. For him and for us.

REGULAR 3-POINTER

KAT. For the same reason why if I were a Mavs fan in 2009 I’d pick Dirk and if I were a Thunder fan in 2016 I’d pick Durant. Small dudes look cooler dunking. Big dudes look cooler nailing 3s.

FREE THROWS

Mitch. Don’t overthink it. If Mitch went to the line with zero seconds on the clock with the Knicks down two and he made both, God would manifest in the lane, gesture to the heavens and say, “We kept your seat warm.”

PAINT BLOCK

Jose Alvarado. Is this even a question??

3-POINT BLOCK

When Mitch first broke into the league, he was such an electric puppy he tried to block every shot the other team took, including 3s. And he blocked a TON of 3s; dunno if the league tracks blocked 3s, but around 2019, 2020 there’s no way anyone in the league came close to him.

Also, nothing gets me as pumped as a fan or when I’m playing than stuffing someone. I’m too old now, haven’t played in years. But even when I play 2K, every time I go to block someone’s shot I end up all contorted in my chair with my leg kicked out as I go for the stuff. If the Knicks won the title on a Mitch blocked 3, the orgasm would kill me. What a way to go.

DRAWING A CHARGE

If you don’t think someone lying flat on their back is an emotionally stirring way to end a series . . .

The obvious choice here is Brunson; no one would begrudge you. But I’m going with Jordan Clarkson. When Clarkson signed last offseason, he had two primary reps: unabashed gunner and pretty boy fashionista (photo credit: NY Post).

When he first fell out of the rotation, I armchair quarterbacked it as inevitable. He’s a gunner joining a team who’ll never need him to be their primary or secondary or even tertiary scorer. Probably shouldn’t have signed here. Now he’s a rotation regular as the bastard love child of TJ McConnell’s fullcourt defense and Hart’s offensive rebounding. What could be a more perfect microcosm of Clarkson’s reinvention than him lifting the Knicks to the title not with a bucket, but a fall?

AND-1

Ironically, the last Knick I’d pick here is Brunson, as for whatever reason he’s the worst great free-throw shooter I can remember. Since coming to New York, Brunson’s missed 352 free throws combined in the regular-season and playoffs and I swear the number should be double that. I’ve never seen anyone who shoots as well as he does and gets to line like he does seemingly miss as often as he does.

This is really a question of which Knick you most trust to drain the title-winning free throw, rather than miss and send them to an overtime you know they’ll lose?

It should pro’ly be KAT, but for better or worse I grew up watching the Knicks feature the best shooting big man in all the land, and when it came to pressure-time free throws Patrick Ewing had me more anxious than a lemur in a room full of rocking chairs. I could see KAT’s shot rimming out, the Knicks go on to lose and it becomes like a Bill Buckner thing for him. No thanks. I’ll go with Bridges. His DGAF is pretty specific, and seems to rub a lotta people the wrong way, but it’s absolutely perfect for this spot.

REPLAY CHALLENGE

God, kill me.

The LeBron James era of the Los Angeles Lakers has featured lots of turnover. Lots and lots of turnover.

For years, the constant was LeBron James and Anthony Davis. One player who worked himself into that mix and, eventually, became the new constant was Austin Reaves.

No player on the roster has more experience alongside LeBron. Reaves’ entire career has played out alongside LeBron, from undrafted rookie to his superstar ascent this season.

Throughout it all, LeBron has been a mentor for Reaves, something that hasn’t gone unnoticed by the latter. Following LA’s loss to the Thunder to end their season, Reaves was asked about possibly playing one more season with LeBron and what he’s meant to his career.

“It would mean the world to me,” Reaves said. “My rookie year, I had no idea what the hell was going on and he took me under his wing and has given me every opportunity that I could ever ask for, trusted me. But, further than the court, building real friendship…He’s taught me a lot.

“I owe him a lot for my career, like I said. He’s given me confidence every single day.”

Reaves also used the example of LeBron coming up to him after his game-tying three in Game 4 came up short and offered him words of encouragement, saying that “speaks to the character that he has.” The bond between the two has been strong for years with the signs of it showing even very early in Reaves’ career.

Against the Grizzlies in just his second season, Reaves was handed the ball down the stretch in a memorable Game 1 win as he led the Lakers to a pivotal win with big shot after big shot. In the years since, Reaves has talked about that moment shifting the dynamic between him and LeBron as well.

An empowered Reaves has only continued to ascend in the years since then with LeBron enjoying the ride alongside him.

Ironically, at this point in both of their careers, it’s not Austin who controls the Lakers offense with LeBron riding in the passenger seat — or even back seat when Luka Dončić is also healthy — to him. Reaves’ career path may have played out just the same regardless of LeBron’s involvement, but it’s certainly helped him become someone the Lakers are set to both make a centerpiece of the franchise and give a big payday to.

Maybe Reaves can pay for a couple rounds of golf this summer.

You can follow Jacob on Twitter at @JacobRude or on Bluesky at @jacobrude.bsky.social.

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It all comes down to this, as the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers are set to collide in Game 7 at Little Caesars Arena tonight.

Looking to reach the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2008, my Cavaliers vs. Pistons predictions are relying on Jalen Duren and Cade Cunningham to do the heavy lifting for the home team.

Find out more in my NBA picks for Sunday, May 17. 

Our best Cavaliers vs Pistons SGP for Game 7

SGP leg #1: Jalen Duren Over 21.5 points + rebounds + assists

The Cleveland Cavaliers' interior defense has been exploitable on the road in these playoffs, sporting the second-lowest defensive rebound percentage (63.5).

Among players with at least 30 minutes per game this postseason, Detroit Pistons center Jalen Duren ranks fourth in offensive rebounds (3.7) and second in offensive rebound percentage (12.4).

SGP leg #2: Cade Cunningham Over 8.5 assists

Cade Cunningham has dished 9+ dimes in four of seven home games, and the Pistons are 3-1 in those contests.

Cunningham ranks third in potential assists overall (15) this postseason. His team has also shot more efficiently at home, which should lead to a bump in helpers.

SGP leg #3: Pistons moneyline

The Pistons nearly won Game 5 before dominating in Game 6, and they’ve got momentum on their side.

Detroit is 5-2 straight up at home this postseason with an 8.1 Net Rating, and Cleveland is just 1-5 on the road with a -8.2 Net Rating.

After coming back from a 3–1 deficit in the first round against Orlando and blowing out the Magic in Game 7, I expect the Pistons to stand tall once again on home court.

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See our full Cavaliers vs Pistons Game 7 preview

Get Zak Hanshew's full breakdown of this game, including his best bet, plus the latest NBA odds, injuries, and betting trends, in his Cavaliers vs Pistons predictions for Game 7.

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The Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons have played a back-and-forth series, but it all comes down to Game 7 with a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals on the line.

Cade Cunningham and James Harden delivered for their respective teams last time out, and my Cavaliers vs. Pistons props highlight both stars once again.

Read all the details in my Cavaliers vs. Pistons predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, May 17.

Best Cavaliers vs Pistons props for Game 7

Player	Pick
Cade Cunningham	Over 2.5 threes made	+130
James Harden	Over 18.5 points	-105
Duncan Robinson	Over 1.5 threes made	-190

Game 7 Prop #1: Cade Cunningham Over 2.5 threes made

+130 at bet365

Cade Cunningham led the Detroit Pistons to victory in Game 6 with just 21 points, but the former No. 1 pick was on fire from long range yet again.

Cunningham shot 5-for-10 from beyond the arc in Game 6, and he’s now dropped 11 three pointers over the last two contests.

The Pistons as a whole have been hot from three-point range in this series, sinking nearly 41% of their attempts. Cunningham has been even better, averaging 3.3 threes per game against the Cleveland Cavaliers on nearly 48% shooting.

It’ll be the same game plan for Cade in Game 7.

Game 7 Prop #2: James Harden Over 18.5 points

-105 at bet365

James Harden’s line was set at 19.5 points in Game 6 and he hit the Over with a team-high 23 points, so it’s surprising he opened at a lower point total with better odds for Game 7.

The Cavs guard has dropped Over 18.5 points in four straight games and five of six contests this series.

The Pistons have managed to lock up Donovan Mitchell late in the series, with the Cavaliers star averaging just 19.5 ppg over his last two outings.

That means pressure is on Harden, and he’s been up to the challenge.

Game 7 Prop #3: Duncan Robinson Over 1.5 threes made

-190 at bet365

Duncan Robinson has been a secret weapon for the Pistons this series, scoring nearly 14 ppg in 30 minutes per night.

The Pistons forward has been virtually untouchable from beyond the arc, averaging 3.8 treys while shooting almost 58% from three-point range vs. the Cavaliers.

Robinson is shooting an incredible 87.5% on “wide open” threes this round, and 50% on “open” shots from long range.

He’s dropped Over 1.5 threes in 10 of 12 appearances this postseason, and he’ll hit that number easily if he keeps knocking down his open looks.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

From the moment of my fist keystroke here, there are 10 days, 10 hours and 34 minutes until the NBA Draft withdrawal deadline for college underclassman, those wishing to continue their undergraduate eduction at an institution of higher learning.

Flory Bidunga, you are on the clock.

And now the Louisville Cardinal fanbase, after enduring a week of quiet burgeoning anxiety, which followed a furious couple months of anticipation and good news, sits and waits. 

Tick Tock. Tick Tock. Tick Tock.

Like the opening of “60 Minutes,” only a whole lot longer. 

And we wonder, what if the “#1 Player in the Portal,” opts to stay and roll the dice. As The Professor, may he Rest in Peace, would opine, “Perhaps the kid simply doesn’t want to endure the ‘Theoretical Thereminology 368’ class he’d need for graduation.”

If rational thinking doesn’t prevail and he leaves his talent in the 2d round pool, what are the Cardinals to do?

It would leave them with enough largesse to make a necessarily absurd offer to Milan Momcilovic. Which would certainly help the Cards’ chance for real marksmanship. But leave them for the second season in a row bereft of depth underneath.

Oh the pluses and minuses of this obsession.

When word from whatever spot of gestation started to circulate last week that Bidunga was ” perhaps leaning” toward staying in the Draft, I began to cull the nooks and crannies of the www. for other unsigned possibilities.

The name David Fuchs popped up. A 6-9, 245 lb. bruiser who is not leaving his heart in San Francisco.

Apparently ACC mate Clemson is making the biggest push. But . . . that was several days ago, and a quick check does not reveal any commitment on the kid’s part.

Understand, I have not the foggiest idea whether this baller’s even on the U of L staff’s radar. Just me trolling for some nugget that will sate my craving for the day.

Or, is there some fire breathing, vodka guzzling firebrand from Hackcomputevenia we’ve never heard of that might add to the global nature of the team?

Flory, the Cardinal Nation awaits.

 * * * * *

I finally remembered the name of the player whom Isaac Ellis reminds me of.

Tyler Kolek at Marquette from a few years back.

Late bloomer who became the heart and soul of Shaka Smart’s Warriors a/k/a Golden Eagles.

Not projecting anything about Ellis, other than in my obsessive brain, Kolek came to mind after watching Ellis’s tapes.

 * * * * * 

Speaking of that university that Al McGuire made famous on the hardwood, I am looking forward to observing how Sananda Fru fares in MIlwaukee?

Was he mishandled in Louisville?

Were our observations of his “softness” correct?

Can Smart instill some boom shaka laka in the center?

 * * * * * 

Because it’s the only hoops being played by the male of the species, I watch the NBA playoffs.

A Motowner by birth, I have a rooting interest.

Am glad the Pistons bench finally showed up in Game 6, a beat down. In which former Cardinal Donovan Mitchell did not do his thing.

Which Detroit performance helped ameliorate my disgust over how Detroit lost Game 5. James Hardin missed a FT in OT. But no Piston blocked him off and the Beard captured his miss.

“Basketball 101,” I screamed at the screen. You learn it in the 6th grade. Cut off the shooter at the line. Geesh. 

If the Cavs prevail tonight in Game 7, I’ll be fine. Donovan will give me a rooting interest against the Knickerbockers. But I’ll be wearing my lone piece Pistons merch during the game.

 * * * * *

The other once upon a time Cardinal I’ll be paying attention to next campaign: Luke Murray. Now head guy at BC.

Former assistant in the Yum!, stupidly fired by Chris Mack, two time natty winner at UConn since, has apparently harvested some money in Beantown. Using it wisely.

He only had one player returning. And now has what appears to be a more competitive roster than the Eagles have had in decades.

 * * * * * 

10 days, 9 hours, 48 minutes.

Yo, Flory, ya know you don’t have to wait for the last moment to withdraw.

— c d kaplan

How much postseason basketball have you been watching?

I know once the Phoenix Suns season ends, plenty of fans pack away the jerseys, toss the hats in the closet, and decide they’ve had enough basketball for a while. The season didn’t end in a championship, so they check out until next October. Others become casual viewers. They’ll catch a game here and there because they enjoy basketball in general. Maybe they tune back in once the Finals arrive. After an entire season of emotionally investing in the Suns, the postseason almost becomes a mental vacation.

Then there are the maniacs. The people watching every game like it’s a scouting report. I fall into that category. And after obsessively watching this postseason, one conclusion keeps smacking me in the face. Damn, the Suns are far away from a championship.

I know Mat Ishbia said during his postseason press conference that Phoenix will win a championship with Devin Booker. For some reason, people are taking that statement as the end-all, be-all beacon of the Suns’ direction, as if Ishbia saying it automatically means the organization is about to abandon every ounce of responsibility in pursuit of forcing that outcome immediately.

I love what Mat Ishbia has done with the Phoenix Suns organization lately. He’s made the team accessible. He values the fan experience. He’s actively trying to correct the mistakes that often come with new owner syndrome. That said, simply because Ishbia says the Suns will win a championship with Devin Booker doesn’t automatically make it a reality. There are too many variables involved, and some of the biggest variables are sitting at the top of the Western Conference right now. Their talent. Their youth. Their continuity. Their cohesiveness.

If you’ve been watching the postseason, you know the Oklahoma City Thunder are an absolute buzz saw. They shredded Phoenix like a wood chipper and turned around and did the same thing to the Los Angeles Lakers. They’re 8-0 heading into the Western Conference Finals.

Their opponent in the Western Conference Finals? The San Antonio Spurs, who just dismantled the Minnesota Timberwolves in six games. Sure, San Antonio is young and going through its first real postseason experience together. Even with all of that inexperience, they still found themselves with a shot at an NBA Finals appearance.

That’s the part that hits you when watching these playoffs. You realize how far away Phoenix still is from legitimately competing for a title. Both Oklahoma City and San Antonio are positioned to remain elite for years because they combine high-end talent with youth, depth, and asset flexibility.

The Suns, as competitive as they showed they could be last season, are still trying to exceed expectations while carrying $23.2 million in dead cap. The reality is the path to an NBA Finals appearance over the next five years feels incredibly narrow.

It’s interesting because we hear what we want to hear, right? Mat Ishbia said the Phoenix Suns will win a championship with Devin Booker, and some people immediately took that as gospel. In the same press conference, he also talked about continuity, development, and progression. That’s the part I’m taking as gospel because I truly believe that’s the direction Phoenix is headed. And realistically, it is the more probable outcome based on the statements provided.

I think winning a championship with Booker is going to be extremely difficult given the current roster construction and the limitations attached to it. I also think developing what you currently have and leaning into progression is the correct path forward. More importantly, it’s the realistic one because there simply aren’t a ton of options available.

I know there are still people who want to blow the whole thing up, trade Booker for draft capital, and fully reset the organization. Honestly, they might not even be wrong long term. I still don’t think now is the time to do it. This organization is still in the process of building a foundation. Year two of this retool becomes about seeing how the roster responds to the direction Phoenix is trying to establish, Booker included. Brian Gregory said everyone on this roster has to improve, and that absolutely includes Devin Booker.

That’s why next season becomes a massive evaluation year for him. Can he handle the expectations? Can he elevate with this version of the roster and culture around him? If the answer is no, then next summer becomes the time for a very serious conversation about potentially moving on from Booker.

Because right now, the timelines don’t fully align. The top of the Western Conference is loaded with juggernauts, and the Suns simply don’t have enough to realistically compete at that level. What they do have is direction. What they do have is a desire to stabilize the franchise, and they’re actively in the process of doing that. You don’t stabilize an organization by detonating everything, bottoming out, and losing games when you don’t even control your own draft picks to properly execute the rebuild.

Take some time. Watch the postseason. Really watch it. Realize how far the Phoenix Suns still are from their destination. The path to eventually getting there is going to take time, care, and a commitment to the direction the organization is trying to build toward. Stabilizing the franchise has been paramount, and if you want to create a winning culture like the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs have built, it requires patience.

It also takes some luck. Both organizations absolutely hit on transformational players in Victor Wembanyama and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. At the end of the day though, you still make your own luck.

And maybe that’s the hardest reality for people to accept, because patience feels boring when you’ve spent the last few years chasing shortcuts. Watching these playoffs, you can clearly see the difference between teams that were constructed and teams that were cultivated. Oklahoma City and San Antonio didn’t arrive here overnight. They built identities, developed talent internally, and allowed continuity to harden into culture.

The Suns are finally trying to move back in that direction after years of operating in fast forward. It might not produce immediate gratification, and it might never end in a championship. Although for the first time in a while, it at least feels like Phoenix is trying to build something sustainable instead of simply trying to survive its own expectations.

Former Kentucky star and current Oklahoma City Thunder superstar guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had Big Blue Nation celebrating across social media after it was reported that he won his second consecutive NBA Most Valuable Player award.

Following ESPN Senior NBA Insider Shams Charania’s report, Kentucky fans quickly took to Twitter/X to praise Gilgeous-Alexander’s. Many fans reflected on his breakout 2017-18 season at Kentucky, where he transformed into a lottery pick by the end of the year under former head coach John Calipari.

Fans across social media congratulated Gilgeous-Alexander on the achievement and praised how well the former Kentucky star has performed on the NBA stage. Many Kentucky fans celebrated his rise from Lexington to becoming one of the league’s biggest superstars while continuing to represent the program at the highest level.

With the help of Gilgeous-Alexander, the Oklahoma City Thunder posted the best record in the NBA with a 64-win season, and Gilgeous-Alexander also posted historic numbers to show that he deserved the award. The superstar guard averaged 31.1 points, 6.6 assists, and 4.3 rebounds per game while helping lead the Thunder into championship contention.

For Kentucky fans, the moment served as another reminder of the program’s long history of producing NBA stars at the highest level.

Here’s how Twitter celebrated the big news!