The shorthanded Memphis Grizzlies host the struggling Houston Rockets on Friday night at FedExForum.
Memphis’ frontcourt is decimated with injuries, and my Rockets vs Grizzlies predictions expect Amen Thompson to have a tremendous showing on the glass.
Here are my best free NBA picks for this Western Conference showdown on Friday, March 27.
Rockets vs Grizzlies prediction
Rockets vs Grizzlies best bet: Amen Thompson Over 7.5 rebounds (-135)
Amen Thompson is one of the Houston Rockets' best rebounders, pulling down a career-high 7.9 boards per game. He's recorded at least eight rebounds in 36 of 70 games overall, going for exactly seven rebounds 13 more times.
Thompson has corralled 8.3 rebounds on the road compared to 7.4 at home, and he's gone for 8+ in 21 of 36 away from Toyota Center.
Since the All-Star break, Thompson has pulled down 8.7 rebounds per game and recorded 8+ in nine of 18 appearances. He leads the team in rebounds over the Rockets' last seven games at 10.3, and he's hit the Over on this line five times in that span.
Alperen Sengun has taken a step back as a rebounder, grabbing just 7.7 boards per game across his last 10 outings, allowing Thompson to take a significant step forward in that department.
The Memphis Grizzlies sport one of the thinnest and smallest frontcourt lineups in the NBA, and the team has been highly vulnerable to opposing rebounders.
Over the last 10 games, Memphis has surrendered a league-high 49.7 rebounds, including the third-most offensive rebounds at 13.8. Thompson has been surging as a rebounder, and he should be even better in such a favorable road matchup.
Rockets vs Grizzlies same-game parlay
Thompson recorded 10 dimes in his last game out, and he’s reached that mark in five of his last 11. He’s dished 6+ dimes in 32 of 70 appearances, including 18 of 36 on the road. Thompson finished with 14 and seven assists in two matchups with the Grizzlies.
Tonight’s game should be a great bounce-back opportunity for the Rockets, but Houston has been disappointing as of late. After losing to the Chicago Bulls, they gave up a 13-point lead in overtime.
The Rockets could win in a blowout, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the shorthanded Grizz keep things close. Instead, I’ll bet the Over. Both teams are ranked in the bottom 10 in defense across their last 10 appearances, and buckets should come easily.
Rockets vs Grizzlies SGP
Amen Thompson Over 7.5 rebounds
Amen Thompson Over 5.5 assists
Over 227.5
Our "from downtown" SGP: Durant from Downtown!
Across the last 10 games, Memphis has allowed the fourth-most triples and the eighth-highest three-point percentage to opponents. Thompson should have ample opportunities to drive and kick out to Kevin Durant and Reed Sheppard or corral offensive rebounds and find shooters for second-chance buckets.
Durant has hit 3+ triples in three of his last four games, and he hit four in his last matchup with the Grizzlies. Sheppard has knocked down just 5-of-24 three-pointers across his last two games, but he’s due for a rebound performance in this favorable matchup.
Rockets vs Grizzlies SGP
Amen Thompson Over 7.5 rebounds
Amen Thompson Over 5.5 assists
Reed Sheppard Over 3.5 three-pointers
Kevin Durant Over 2.5 three-pointers
Rockets vs Grizzlies odds
Spread: Rockets -12.5 | Grizzlies +12.5
Moneyline: Rockets -900 | Grizzlies +600
Over/Under: Over 227.5 | Under 227.5
Rockets vs Grizzlies betting trend to know
The Houston Rockets have only covered the Spread in 16 of their last 50 games (-21.40 Units / -39% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Grizzlies.
How to watch Rockets vs Grizzlies
Location
FedExForum, Memphis, TN
Date
Friday, March 27, 2026
Tip-off
8:00 p.m. ET
TV
Space City Home Network, FDSN Southeast
Rockets vs Grizzlies latest injuries
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The Boston Celtics host the Atlanta Hawks on Friday night in a game Boston needs to win to stay ahead of the New York Knicks for second place in the Eastern Conference. Here are three big questions entering the matchup.
Will Boston be emotionally ready for surging Atlanta?
The last two games Boston played came against Western Conference contenders were a tale of two cities. First, it was the Minnesota Timberwolves, where the Celtics lost 102-92. Then on Wednesday, Boston welcomed Oklahoma City Thunder to TD Garden and, in an emotional game that was close throughout, prevailed 119-109.
The key will be whether Boston can shift its focus from two of the West’s best to a fifth-place Hawks team that has won three in a row. Atlanta is coming off an overtime win over the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday, after beating the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors.
Sometimes, the drop-off from high-profile games to a more routine conference matchup can open the door for an upset. Boston needs to stay sharp to protect home court and maintain its edge over New York who own the tiebreaker.
Who will step up if Jaylen Brown is unable to play
At the time of this writing, Jaylen Brown is questionable with left calf tightness. He’s appeared in 65 games this season and has carried a heavy load offensively, especially while Jayson Tatum was out.
If Brown is out, keep an eye on Payton Pritchard. He’s been a steady scoring option, though his last 20-point game came March 2 against the Milwaukee Bucks, when he dropped 25. With Tatum still finding rhythm and potentially no Brown, this sets up as a spot where Pritchard could take on a bigger offensive role.
That said, this is a game against his hometown team, so it wouldn’t be a shock if Brown ultimately suits up.
Who will guard Jalen Johnson?
The last time these teams met in Boston, the Celtics had no answer for Jalen Johnson, who led Atlanta to a 117-106 win. He finished with 19 points, 14 rebounds and seven assists, impacting the game on both ends.
Boston tried multiple looks defensively. Brown, Derrick White and Anfernee Simons all saw time on Johnson. Against smaller matchups, Johnson attacked the paint and used his 6-foot-8 frame effectively, while also knocking down 3 of 5 from deep. He’s shooting 34.9% from beyond the arc this season.
Atlanta may not have a clear No. 1 option, but it has a roster full of players who can heat up quickly. It’s a young, scrappy group, and if Boston doesn’t come out locked in, this could turn into a longer night than expected.
Michigan State and UConn should have a high-intensity feel driven by two of the top coaches and defenses remaining in the tournament. Friday's Sweet 16 game just might not be aesthetically pleasing.
According to KenPom, the UConn defense ranks 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and the Spartans rank 13th. And both offenses look to get into transition but will focus on frontcourt play in the halfcourt set, with the Huskies led by Tarris Reed Jr. and Alex Karaban and Michigan State centered on Jaxon Kohler, Carson Cooper and high-flying forward Coen Carr.
The Huskies are back in the Sweet 16 after winning back-to-back national titles in 2023, '24.
"I'm just excited," Huskies coach Dan Hurley said Thursday. "I feel like it's an honorable game for UConn, Michigan State. It's a great crazy Sweet 16 game. Excited to be in it."
How the Spartans react to another early deficit on their biggest stage of the season will be critical, and Jeremy Fears once again wills them back by halftime. But the Huskies’ interior depth and strength, particularly Tarris Reed’s physicality, gets Jaxon Kohler, Carson Cooper and Cam Ward into foul trouble and exploits MSU’s thin post rotation. Ultimately, Fears’ stellar performance isn’t enough, and the Spartans’ season ends short of last season’s Elite Eight trip.
The MSU team we saw at Purdue, at Michigan, against Louisville, that MSU team can beat this UConn team, without UConn having to play poorly. The question is, if both teams have a stellar day, who’s the better team? I think the answer is UConn, by a nose. Physically, this could be blood bath.
Blake Toppmeyer: Michigan State
Paul Myerberg: Michigan State
Jordan Mendoza: Michigan State
John Brice: Michigan State
Matt Glenesk: Michigan State
Craig Meyer: UConn
Austin Curtright: Michigan State
Ehsan Kassim: UConn
John Leuzzi: UConn
Moneyline: UConn (-130); Michigan State (+110)
Spread: UConn (-1.5)
Over/under total: 136.5
Silas Demary Jr injury update: Will UConn guard play vs Michigan State?
He was listed as questionable for UConn's second-round game, but ended up playing 21 minutes, scoring two points with four assists and no turnovers.
"I'm feeling a lot better the past couple days," Demary said Thursday. "A lot of rehab, a lot of treatment. Try to get me as close as I can back to 100%.
"I'd say I'm feeling a little bit better, doing everything I can. Still going to do stuff once we leave here, try to get even better. Feel like I'm in a better spot than I was last week. Trying to get back to 100% the best I can."
Why is Bill Murray at UConn vs Michigan State Sweet 16 game?
Murray's son Luke Murray is an associate head coach on the Huskies' coaching staff.
Luke Murray is in his fifth season on the UConn bench and was just named head coach at Boston College. Before taking the Huskies assistant job in 2021, he was an assistant at both Xavier and Louisville under Chris Mack. He is in his ninth season on Hurley's staff across three different stops.
Boston College hires Luke Murray as new head coach
Connecticut assistant Luke Murray has been hired as the new head coach at Boston College, the university announced on Thursday, March 26.
Murray is the son of actor Bill Murray, who has regularly been spotted sitting behind the bench at games for much of his son’s coaching career.
"Today marks a turning point in Boston College Men's Basketball," Boston College athletic director Blake James said in a statement. "In Luke Murray, we have found a leader who does not just understand the modern landscape of college basketball - he has helped define it. His role in building a national championship caliber program, his sophisticated offensive vision, and his relentless pursuit of excellence make him the perfect fit to lead our student-athletes. We are thrilled to welcome Luke, his wife, Kara, and their family to the BC community."
Is Jeremy Fears Jr a dirty player?
It really depends on who you ask and how you analyze Fears' game.
"I go out every game and I play hard. I don't intentionally try to hurt anyone,” Fears said after Michigan State's game at Minnesota back in February, according to the Detroit Free Press, part of the USA TODAY Network. "I go out and play every game like it's my last, because at one point it was my last. So I don't take a game for granted. I don't take a moment for granted. So I'm going to go out there and play as hard as I can every possession, every game.
"Like at one point, I had basketball taken away from me, so something I love to do, I couldn't do it for a whole year. So most people wouldn't understand that. And that's on them, I guess. At the end of the day, it doesn’t change who I am or what I do. I'm just go out there and play 150(%) no matter what."
Are Jeremy Fears Jr and Jeremiah Fears related?
Yes, the Michigan State point guard is the brother of now New Orleans Pelicans guard Jeremiah Fears, who was a one-and-done at Oklahoma. Jeremiah Fears was drafted by the Pelicans with the No. 7 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.
Earlier this week, ESPN.com released a list covering the 10 best and 10 worst transactions since last offseason. To nobody’s surprise, the Dorian Finney-Smith signing was on the list coming in at number seven. So far this season, Finney-Smith is averaging just 3.2 points per game and has yet to score in double digits in any game.
At first the DFS signing seemed like a perfect deal for Houston, as he recently ended a season as one of the best role players in the NBA. His +14.2 on/off differential was third in the league behind only Nikola Jokic and Christian Braun on the Denver Nuggets. This is a big deal for a player who’s not a star. He looked to be the perfect wing for a team relying on star players like Kevin Durant. So what went wrong?
After undergoing ankle surgery in the offseason, Dorian Finney-Smith’s debut kept getting delayed. The whole process was really weird, as the Rocket’s front office nor head coach Ime Udoka gave many updates. Finally, on December 25, Dorian made his debut for the Rockets. At that point, the season was about a third of the way through, as Houston had played 34 percent of their games. Additonally, Dorian likely missed out on a full training camp and pre-season with the roster due to limited mobility after surgery. It is important to note that usually, when it comes to role players, their rhythm matters more than anything.
Perhaps what is the most frustrating aspect of everything is that Houston needed a player like Dorian Finney-Smith. They thought they were finding somewhat of a replacement for Dillon Brooks, but instead, the Rockets have had to put more stress on other players, such as Amen Thompson and Kevin Durant.
Reading everything so far, it seems like the situation is hopeless, but thankfully, that is not the case. Ime Udoka, the coach of the Rockets, is obviously attempting to integrate him before the postseason, even though the output is still lacking. Additonally, with Finney-Smith’s contract being a multi-year deal, there’s a possibility that next season could be better for him, as he will be coming into the year fully healthy.
Dorian Finney-Smith and the Rockets look to get back on track tonight as they face the Memphis Grizzlies at 7:00pm CST in Memphis. You can catch the game on Space City Houston, and as always, be sure to check back at The Dream Shake for pre and post-game content.
Alabama guard Aden Holloway, who was arrested on felony drug charges, was granted permission by a judge to leave the state on Friday as his team prepares to face Michigan in the Sweet 16 in Chicago.
The Crimson Tide say “nothing has changed with regard to Aden’s status with the team." Alabama listed Holloway as out on the availability report given to the NCAA on Thursday. That report is allowed to be amended up to two hours before the game.
The university removed him from campus last week “pending further investigation by the UA Office of Student Conduct.”
Holloway, Alabama’s No. 2 scorer, was arrested March 16 after authorities found 2.1 pounds of marijuana in his apartment. He was suspended indefinitely following the arrest, but coach Nate Oats has not ruled out the possibility of his return in the NCAA Tournament.
Holloway's attorney, Jason Neff, had requested his client be allowed to travel “on a trip out of the state" — without specifying where — departing Friday and returning Tuesday. Tuscaloosa County District Court Judge Joanne Jannik approved that travel Friday morning, according to court documents.
If Alabama were to win Friday night, it would play in the Elite Eight on Sunday.
Holloway's sister, Mila Holloway, is set to play for Michigan in the women's Sweet 16 on Sunday in Fort Worth, Texas, and could be playing in an Elite Eight game there on Monday.
Among the charges Aden Holloway faces is a count of first-degree marijuana possession, not for personal use, which is a Class C felony and carries a penalty of up to 10 years in prison and a maximum fine of $15,000. The amount of marijuana authorities said they found was just below the 2.2-pound threshold for a drug trafficking charge.
Neff has said there is no proof his client was selling the drugs.
As NBA MVP debates continue to intensify, the heavy favorite, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, is slipping.
Both Victor Wembanyama and Luka Doncic have made up substantial ground on Gilgeous-Alexander, who seemed like a shoo-in to win the award.
Key Takeaways
Gilgeous-Alexander had been shorter than -1000.
Wembanyama recently shared three reasons why he felt he was the MVP of the league.
Doncic averaged nearly 40 points per game over the last three weeks.
Player
DraftKings
Caesars
bet365
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
-500
-550
-550
Victor Wembanyama
+500
+550
+500
Luka Doncic
+1200
+1100
+1200
Nikola Jokic
+6000
+4000
+5000
Jaylen Brown
+15000
+15000
+15000
Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning MVP, is still a sizable favorite to win the league’s most prestigious individual award. However, after being shorter than -1000 at top online sportsbooks, his NBA MVP odds have dropped to as low as -500 (83.3% implied chance) at DraftKings.
As SGA’s odds have declined, both Wembanyama and Doncic have experienced jolts in their odds to win the MVP.
Wembanyama could become the youngest MVP winner if he earns the confidence of the voters, assuming the mantle currently held by former Chicago Bulls star Derrick Rose (22 years and 191 days old). He recently said that “it is still reasonable that there is a debate” as to who deserves the honor, before listing three reasons why he felt that he deserved it over his peers:
He is the most impactful defensive player in the league
The Spurs won four of five matchups against the Oklahoma City Thunder
With odds as short as +500, Wembanyama has at best an implied 16.7% chance—still a long way to go to catch the lead dog.
Doncic, the NBA’s leading scorer, finds his shortest odds at Caesars at +1100 (8.3% chance). While he was always among the top 10 candidates for the award, he never made substantial headway until recently.
The Los Angeles Lakers are in the middle of an excellent stretch that caused them to rise from +8000 to +3000 in FanDuel’s NBA Finals odds just over the past couple of weeks. Their Slovenian superstar also played at an extraordinarily high level during that time, averaging 39.5 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 7.3 assists on 48% shooting over his last 11 games, eight of those coming against projected playoff teams.
Luka Doncic is the first player to average 40 points over a six-game span — all on the road — since MJ in 1986 😳
While both Wembanyama and Doncic are making the MVP race a compelling storyline over the final weeks of the season, Gilgeous-Alexander is not going out of his way to lose the award.
Since returning from a right abdominal strain at the end of November, last year’s Finals MVP averaged 30.3 points, 7.4 assists, and 4.3 rebounds on 57.2% shooting in 12 games, 11 of those being wins. The Thunder also have the best record in the NBA, leading the Spurs by two games and the Lakers by 10 in the race for the first seed in the Western Conference.
Victor Wembanyama: 24.2 points, 11.2 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 3.1 blocks, 1.1 steals, 50.5% FG, 35.1% 3PT, +16.9 on/off net rating
Luka Doncic: 33.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, 8.3 assists, 1.6 steals, 47.4% FG, 36.4% 3PT, +5.0 on/off net rating
A team's regular-season record has been an important part of determining the MVP in years past. That could spell trouble for Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder, who finish the year with a tough run of games.
OKC will face off against the New York Knicks, Detroit Pistons, Lakers (twice), Los Angeles Clippers, Denver Nuggets, and Phoenix Suns between now and their final game on April 12. Tankathon ranks that as the second-toughest remaining schedule, while the Spurs are only 20th, and the Lakers 22nd.
The head-to-head matchups between the Lakers and Thunder could also give Doncic a platform to vault in MVP odds if he puts together great performances and helps his team take down the conference leaders.
Sportsbooks get it wrong?
Sportsbook odds are not always perfect, but they are usually indicative of what is going to happen. However, there have been notable exceptions.
One recent case of sportsbooks getting their award odds completely wrong came in 2023.
Buffalo Bills safety, Damar Hamlin, who went into cardiac arrest during a game, was an enormous favorite to win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award. He ended up losing it to then 39-year-old Joe Flacco, who only played in five games for the Cleveland Browns.
The Thunder, Spurs, and Lakers all have exactly nine games left in their regular seasons. The Thunder and Lakers will be in action on Friday night, and the Spurs will kick off the Saturday afternoon slate.
The Los Angeles Lakers (47-26), ranked third in the Western Conference, host the Brooklyn Nets (17-56), who are second to last in the East. The Lakers are heavily favored with a -16.5 spread and a -1600 moneyline. Both teams have played 73 games this season.
Mar 17, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Gary Harris (11), left, Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) and Milwaukee Bucks forward Taurean Prince (12) watch the game against the Cleveland Cavaliers from the bench in the second half at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images | Michael McLoone-Imagn Images
Earlier this week, NBA Players Association (NBPA) released the following statement rebuking the Bucks over their alleged desire to shut Giannis Antetokounmpo down for the remainder of the season following yet another injury:
“The Player Participation Policy was designed by the league to hold teams accountable and ensure that when an All-Star like Giannis Antetokounmpo is healthy and ready to play, he is on the court. Unfortunately, anti-tanking policies are only as effective as their enforcement; fans, broadcast partners, and the integrity of the game itself will continue to suffer as long as ownership goes unchecked. We look forward to collaborating with the NBA on meaningful new proposals that will directly address and discourage tanking.”
So, before I pick this apart, let’s recap the injuries Giannis has sustained this season. First, he suffered a groin strain in November and was projected to be out 1–2 weeks; he returned in 11 days. Then, he suffered a calf strain in December and was projected to be out 4–6 weeks; he returned in 24 days. He then reinjured that same calf in late January and, again, was projected to miss 4–6 weeks; this time, he and the medical team finally took that timeline seriously, missing about five weeks.
Following that, after playing three games, he rolled his ankle in the March 10 contest against Phoenix, which clearly hindered him for the rest of the game, but of course, Doc took GA’s word that he was fine and allowed him to keep playing; he missed no games, and we have no clue if the effects of that were/are still lingering. His latest injury, for crying out loud, is a hyperextended knee in which he also rolled an ankle (again) on the same play. Suffice to say, I’m willing to bet he isn’t 100%.
With that in mind, let’s rip into this statement. In essence, the NBPA claims that Milwaukee does not want Giannis to play because they are tanking and his presence will hinder their pursuit to lose games. What’s likely happened here is that Giannis wants to play, the front office wants him to sit, and so he (or his camp) has tattled to the players association to pressure the team into letting him play. Now, judging by Antetokounmpo’s previous handling of injuries and admission that he hasn’t been as careful as he should’ve been (why it was ever in his hands to such a degree, I’ll never understand), I’m not sure he has built up a great deal of credibility in this area. As reported by The Athletic’s Eric Nehm, the team’s stance is that Giannis is not healthy, and that’s all we can currently go by.
Now, maybe Antetokounmpo is telling the truth that he’s good to go, and the team is playing politics. But as I have written about, those politics likely have very little to do with tanking, as the NBPA asserts, and a whole lot to do with keeping Giannis healthy going into one of the most consequential offseasons in Bucks history; the “losing games” part of it is just a side effect (or bonus, if you see it that way). Not to rehash the whole article, but a catastrophic injury would put an almighty spanner in the works as it relates to Milwaukee’s future. So, hear me when I say that while a fine from the NBA would be ridiculous on many levels, I would pay 20 fines, and that would still be preferable to him returning.
To be clear, the assertion that Milwaukee is tanking or has tanked at any point this season is laughable at best, and deceitful at worst. The Bucks do not pass the smell test of any of the tanking hallmarks. They haven’t abused the injury report in any shape or form, and the perfect example of that is Giannis. They allowed him to come back as soon as humanly possible from his injuries, despite (I assume/hope) knowing the risk that was involved; could you imagine how long the Jazz, for example, would have held Lauri Markkanen out if he’d suffered the same calf injury GA suffered? “Oh, Lauri? Yeah, we know he’s been out seven weeks now, but he’s just not quite right yet. Trust us.”
The Bucks have played their young guards into the ground all year long, so much so that Kevin Porter Jr. has had to sit out a bunch of games now because of synovitis in the same knee he had meniscus surgery on earlier this season. They have closed with their best-performing unit in every game, even when that came at a political price (think of the number of games Sims has closed over Turner). I am sure the NBPA is aware of the league’s actual tankers, who’ve been closing games with their third-string unit for months now, right? Right?
Most importantly, Milwaukee has never even had a clear green light to tank anyway because they don’t own their first-round pick outright! There has always been the threat that finishing below New Orleans would mean Milwaukee would have to swap further back in the draft, so on the most basic level, trying to lose every game was never a cogent strategy. Sure, the Pelicans being horrible for most of the season has been calming for Bucks fans watching their team lose a bunch of games, but losing was never the team’s goal.
And sure, there is incentive now for the Bucks to tank the remaining games because, with so few left, the Pelicans are unlikely to rise higher than eighth in the lottery odds, and the Bucks can lock down ninth, but that incentive hasn’t come to bear until the last few days. And frankly, if Milwaukee wanted to do exactly that, they should have the full right to do so! After all, there are seven teams below them who have been egregiously tanking for months! I mean, some of these teams started weeks before the All-Star break! Like, what are we talking about here? The players association is calling out the Bucks of all teams? I’m not sure they’ve thought this one through.
There you have it, NBPA. Your statement is nonsensical garbage, and whoever wrote it should be embarrassed. Go take your tanking accusations and apply them to the teams who deserve them—there are plenty to choose from.
The Atlanta Hawks (41-32) will face the Boston Celtics (48-24) in their third regular-season NBA matchup of the season. Both teams are ranked first in their respective divisions, with Boston favored by 4.5 points. The Celtics have a 67.7% implied probability of winning according to the moneyline odds.
How to Watch Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics
Date: Friday, March 27
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. PT
Where: TD Garden | Boston, Massachusetts
TV channel: Airing locally on FanDuel Sports Network Southeast, NBC Sports Boston
In its effort to curb tanking, Adam Silver and the NBA presented NBA owners with three different conceptual ideas that would radically change and expand the NBA's Draft Lottery. All three would grow the lottery to between 18 and 22 teams and flatten the lottery odds. Plus, the plans open the door to harsher penalties for teams that manipulate their lineups or otherwise take steps to tank in the league's eyes, up to and including moving the team's draft pick back to the end of the first round.
• The lottery is expanded to 18 teams, the 10 teams that miss the postseason entirely, plus all eight teams in the play-in. • The 10 teams that miss the play-in all have an 8% chance of winning the lottery, with the other eight teams getting either 5%, 3% or 2% chances depending upon where they finish. • While 18 teams are in the lottery, the lottery would draw just the top four draft spots, and after that it would be by descending order of teams' records (the same as now).
Lottery Concept 2
• The lottery is expanded to 22 teams: The 10 that miss the postseason, the eight in the play-in, and the four teams eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. • Those 22 teams will be ranked in order of their record across the last two seasons (the WNBA's system). For example, if a team won 20 games this season and 30 the previous season, for the lottery purposes they would have 25 wins. • Teams will be given a win total minimum, and if they finish below that line their record will improve for lottery purposes. For example, let's say that number is 22 wins, then this season's Pacers/Nets/Wizards — all on pace to have fewer than 22 wins — would see their records increased to 22-60 for lottery purposes. The goal is to take away the incentive to lose too many games. • The top four spots in the lottery would be drawn as they are now, after that it would go in record order.
Lottery Concept 3
• The lottery is expanded to 18 teams, the 10 teams that miss the postseason entirely, plus all eight teams in the play-in. • The teams with the five worst records would all have the same odds — 11% to get the top pick — with the lottery odds for the rest of the teams descending from there. • There would be two lottery drawings. The first would be for the top five picks. Then, there would be a second lottery drawing for the 13 remaining teams, and if any of the teams with the five worst records did not make the top five picks, then they could not fall further than 10th.
None of these is a formal proposal in the sense that the owners will have to vote on one of these three plans, a league source told NBC Sports. Rather, the owners may push to combine different parts of the concepts. For example, the third concept could be modified so that it's essentially the same system as currently is in place, but with the five worst teams having the same odds instead of the worst three, with 18 teams in the mix, but after those top five are drawn, it could simply go in record order.
In addition to those proposals, the league wants to increase the commissioner's power to punish a team seen as manipulating its roster to tank. Those punishments could include moving a team's pick to the end of the draft (30th in the first round) and fines in the millions of dollars, according to Joe Varden at The Athletic, who has a quote from a league source.
"Without stricter penalties, you could still have crazy behavior. You have to have something in place that is so drastic, a team would actually think twice about tanking. And if a team tries it and gets caught, then the other teams need to see the penalties and realize it isn't worth it to try."
The NBA's Board of Governors is set to vote on these proposals before this year's NBA Draft.
Stopping tanking has been on top of Adam Silver's to-do list for years, and he's going to use his political capital to push owners to approve some version of one of these proposals. Whether they will work is another question.
Let’s tip the weekend off with some slam dunks in the NBA player prop markets. With 10 games on the schedule, there’s no shortage of options.
My favorites for today include Ace Bailey doing his best to sabotage the Utah Jazz’s tank job, while Chet Holmgren takes the Chicago Bulls by the horns and stuffs the stat sheet.
Those and more NBA picks for Friday, March 27, below.
The Thunder can pull off these streaks because they can hurt you in so many ways. Just look at Chet Holmgren.
The Thunder big man is averaging 16 points and 9.9 rebounds in his 15 games played since the All-Star break.
His rebounding prop is sitting at 8.5 for this matchup, but our Covers Prop Projections have him at 9.4 rebounds against a Bulls defense that surrenders the third-most opponent rebounds per game.
That has me looking at Holmgren’s double-double prop, which is priced at 2/1.
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Where to watch: CHSN+, FanDuel Sports Network Oklahoma
Prop #2: Ace Bailey Over 20.5 Points
-105 at bet365
The Utah Jazz might have to start sitting down Ace Bailey if they want to fully embrace tank mode, because the Bailey breakout is for real.
Bailey is proving why he was worth a Top 5 pick. He’s averaging 21.9 points while shooting an impressive 42.9% from 3-point range over his last nine games. That includes putting up 32 or more points three times.
He gets a good matchup tonight against the Denver Nuggets. While Nikola Jokic and Co. are a machine on offense they are struggling at the other end of the floor. Denver ranks 21st in defensive rating and 18th in opponent made threes per game.
Expect another strong game from Ace tonight as he goes Over 20.5 points for the fourth time in five games.
The second-year center is arguably playing his best basketball of the season. He’s averaging 16.8 points with a .598 effective field goal percentage over his last eight games, and I like Clingan to keep putting in work in tonight’s matchup against the Dallas Mavericks.
The Mavs are a young team as well, with plenty of areas to work on, with the inside maybe being the most glaring. Dallas ranks dead last in the NBA in opponent points in the paint per game.
So, let’s back Clingan to go Over his point total of 14.5, a number that he’s topped in four of his last eight games.
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GREENVILLE, SOUTH CAROLINA - MARCH 19: Cameron Boozer #12 of the Duke Blue Devils battles Riley Mulvey #55 of the Siena Saints for the ball during the second half in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on March 19, 2026 in Greenville, South Carolina. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images) | Getty Images
March Madness is in high gear, and so there’s more interest to the upcoming NBA Draft, likely to take place on June 23 and 24 at its home since 2013, Barclays Center, Brooklyn. No, the dates are not yet official but the enthusiasm is.
For the Nets, with a high lottery pick, this year’s draft is seen as critical to their rebuild. More than one pundit has suggested that Sean Marks & co. hope to use their pick as part of a big upgrade, moving from two and a half dreary years of rebuild to perhaps what could be called a build. No longer will they be trying to lose.
Could it be analogous to what the franchise did in 2018-19 when a young team led by D’Angelo Russell wound up with the sixth seed … and enough NBA street cred to attract first Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving as free agents, then James Harden in a trade. Don’t expect this build to follow that same scenario but the pick will be critical nonetheless.
This year will also be very different from last June’s draft. After failing to move up — not willing to pay a hefty price that could have included their 2026 pick — they chose quantity over quality, taking a historic if risky five first rounders, even adding one the night before the Draft! (Interestingly, the Nets went into last year’s draft with a No. 2 ranking in Tanathon’s draft power rankings. Same so far this year. They may not have five firsts like last year but a higher lottery pick plus two picks in top half of the second round could be a better haul in a generational draft.)
Now though, hopes are higher. For one thing, the 2025-26 tank — excuse us, “playing the probabilities” — is deeper than last seasons meaning higher odds on May 10, lottery night in Chicago. At the moment, the Nets floor looks like No. 4, maybe even No. 3. They’re in second and only a game out of the top spot, currently held by the Indiana Pacers. Of course, things could change.
And since the Nets sent out future draft assets to get their 2025 and 2026 picks back from the Rockets, it would be ideal for them to get payback. But mostly it’s because this draft is seen as a great draft with comparison to the generational drafts of 1996 and 2003.
With the NCAAs now in the Sweet Sixteen, draft speculation is a little subdued with Darryn Peterson and A.J. Dybansta already done for the season. That leaves Cam Boozer of Duke fighting for the Final Four and beyond.
All that said, here’s the latest mocks. Is there a consensus? Not really. Boozer, Dybantsa and Peterson all have their advocates. Of the eight we surveyed, six had the Nets taking one of the three, with the outliers being forward Caleb Wilson of North Carolina and guard Kingston Flemings of Houston. Interestingly, none had Nets choosing guard Darius Acuff of Arkansas.
Dealing with a busted bracket?
The Sweet 16 is almost here – who’s still alive? We’re reviewing the week that was in the first week of the NCAA tournament and turning our focus to remaining teams. How bad (or good!) is your bracket? Join us in the SB Nation March Madness Feed and let’s talk about who’s most likely to make a run to glory.
Some mocks go with the lottery standings the day they post, others where they think Nets will land after the lottery. Some mocks only project the first round, others the full two. The Nets currently have two picks at Nos. 32 and 43.
Jeremy Woo was out last week with his picks. He has Brooklyn in fourth and out of the running for the Draft’s Big Three of Cam Boozer, A.J. Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson. Instead, he has them taking one of the next three, Caleb Wilson, the 6’10 ” forward out of North Carolina. He, along with Darius Acuff, Arkansas’ 6’3” point guard, and Kingston Flemings, Houston’s 6’5” combo guard, seem to the draftniks’ favorites just behind the Big Three although some are starting to suggest Acuff could move up and Peterson move down. Here’s his two-round takedown:
#4 – Caleb Wilson, PF, 6’10”, North Carolina, Freshman
Wilson opted to have surgery after breaking his thumb last week in practice, ending his season and depriving him of an opportunity to play in the NCAA tournament.
A first-team All-ACC selection, he has done enough to sit safely among the top picks even without taking the court again, showcasing his ability to play above the rim and two-way upside at power forward. Evaluators are curious how much more he can develop his 3-point shooting (25.9%) and ball skills, but Wilson plays exceptionally hard, having compiled 11 double-doubles and setting himself apart as an elite prospect. NBA teams have penciled him in as a top-four selection.
Brooklyn has built patiently, holding onto Michael Porter Jr. and Nic Claxton at the trade deadline and will be hoping to add star power to the youngest roster in the NBA, no matter where this pick falls.
Jonathan Wasserman actually came closest to nailing the Nets preferences in 2025, projecting that Brooklyn would take Nolan Traore (at No. 19); Danny Wolf (at No. 26) and Drake Powell (at No. 27) in his final mock. So, we should pay attention to him!
This time around, with the third pick of the NBA, he has the Nets selecting Darryn Peterson, a 6’6’ shooting guard who drew comparisons to Kobe Bryant at the start of the season but lately, he’s dropped, inconsistency and injury with a wee touch of weirdness hurting his cause.
A productive yet confusing freshman season came to an end for Darryn Peterson after St. John’s buzzer-beater in the Round of 32.
Despite all the controversy around his injuries and in-game tap-outs earlier in the season, he still averaged 20.2 points on 43.8 percent shooting (38.2 percent from three) while playing 29.0 minutes a game. Peterson’s shotmaking skill remains as exciting it seemed at Prolific Prep.
Plus, concerns over the cramping have seemingly faded with Peterson playing over 30 minutes a game over the last month.
Falling from No. 1 to No. 2 or 3 may be caused more by issues with his decision-making and shot selection. Since his 18 points in 20 minutes against Dybantsa on February 2, Peterson shot 39.2 percent from the floor, often relying on difficult, contested jumpers. He also dropped to 51.9 percent finishing on layups, a number that could be caused by a variety of things, including poor spacing, overconfidence in his shooting and legs that aren’t likely at full strength.
At this point with the predraft process approaching, whether he goes No. 1, No. 2 or even No. 3 will come down to the eye of the pick’s beholder, as there doesn’t seem to be any consensus right now when ranking Peterson versus Dybantsa and Boozer.
Going deeper, he likes a wing and a big. Both are from west Africa, Yessoufou from Benin and Chinyelu, Nigeria.
If you claim to be a Nets fan, don’t deny you refresh Tankathon.com at least 20 times a day. Admit it! That is the fist step toward overcoming an addiction. Unlike other addictions, however, it is not debilitating. That could change and lead to sprained index fingers by the end of June.
Not only does Matt Hoover’s site offer up-to-the-minute mocks, they also meticulously maintain the draft order, aka tank guide, for fans of lottery teams. Tankathon even offers a draft power rankings, based on the combined value of each team’s picks. (Nets are currently ranked No. 2 with their three picks in the top 45, just behind the Grizzlies with the nos. 7, 16 and 32.)
Tankathon believes the Nets will go the traditional route and take the country’s top player, 6’10” Cam Boozer of Duke. While their format is light on analysis unlike their rivals, they are long on video:
(Is this kid really only 19?)
In the second, Hoover thinks the Nets would be good with Boozer teammate, 6’6” guard Isaiah Evans and Australian Dash Daniels who like his brother Dyson, a defensive terror (and someone who Sean Marks travelled to Perth, Australia, 11,600 miles away, to scout — along with Karim Lopez — back in January.)
Aran Smith, founder of NBADraft.net is often the outlier in mock draft projections, but the analysis is often top-notch with regular updates on some of the big names. That said, Smith is yes, unconventional again, projecting the Nets will take Kingston Flemings, the 6’4” Houston PG, at No. 4. Four mocks so far, four different projections.
Yes, in terms of rumored interest, Flemings is the only one of the consensus outside the top four who anyone in the media has suggested has the Nets attention, as Corey Tulaba of No Ceilings told Erik Slater of Clutch Points last month…
“Kingston Flemings is a name that I’ve heard the Nets are interested in.”@CoreyTulaba on the top draft prospect outside the top four that Nets fans should be watching. pic.twitter.com/ZqhJgGbRi9
“A name that I think is really important for Nets fans to monitor from what I’ve heard around the league is Kingston Flemings of Houston. That is a name I’ve heard the Nets are kind of interested in and he’s been incredible this year.”
Projects as a high-level lead guard whose speed, poise, and efficiency translate well to the NBA game … Has the tools to impact winning early due to decision-making, defensive engagement, and ability to control tempo … Continued refinement of shooting mechanics and expansion of his scoring package could elevate him from a strong starter profile to an All-Star caliber guard … Defensive tools and mindset point to long-term two-way value … Winning habits, maturity, and coachability strengthen his overall projection and reduce long-term risk …
Flemings indeed hasn’t gotten a lot of attention. Powerfully built with a blazing quick step, the 6’5” sophomore is unlikely to fall out of the top 10 and is the type of player who often sneaks up the mock draft consensus in the last few weeks … and he is in the Sweet Sixteen.
In the second, Smith et al like Keyshawn Hall, a 6’7”, 250-pound 3-and-D candidate who is among this draft’s older players at 22. (Their mock like a couple of others don’t have the Nets picking in the forties. Perhaps the permutations of the draft order caused them to wait a bit.)
One thing about this round-up of mock drafts is how diverse the choices are at Nos. 3 and 4. There is no consensus on who the Nets should select … other than a high lottery pick. Last year, Khaman Maluach was for a long time the draftniks’ favorite to stroll across the stage wearing a Nets cap to a waiting commissioner. There was also a contingent who believed the Nets could wind up with Kon Knueppell!
The closest thing to a consensus – among fans at least – is A.J. Dybantsa and that’s not scientific. Reading though social media, the BYU forward is all smooth games reminiscent of, take your choice, Kevin Durant or Tracy McGrady. Heady comparisons. As Elliot Pohnl of TSN wrote recently in his latest mock:
Dybantsa plays with an incredible amount of force and assertiveness, which allows his athleticism to shine. Despite being surrounded by a mediocre BYU roster that got worse after the Richie Saunders injury, the Cougars were competitive in the Big 12. Dybantsa can take over games, and more importantly, he wants to take over games. He can handle the ball at a high level, and his length and athleticism helps him be a plus defender. His shot could use polish and he isn’t perfect offensively, but he has what it takes to be a franchise-changing selection.
Add to that Egor Demin’s endorsement of fellow Brigham Young product and you can see that if Dybantsa was still in March Madness, there’d be viewing parties among Nets fans. Alas, he is not. Also alas, Sporting News only does first round selections so no guesses on No. 32 or 43.
Ricky O’Donnell thinks that Darryn Peterson will be the name called by Adam Silver, assuming Nets get that top three pick in the lottery. Peterson is the big question mark among the top 3 and O’Donnell thinks the 6’6” Kansas guard (also around) may not answer that question with an exclamation point.
Darryn Peterson looked like Gen-Z Kobe Bryant coming out of high school. He hasn’t lived up to that billing at Kansas due to a bizarre set of injury circumstances that included “traumatic” cramping and multiple soft tissue strains in his lower body. Peterson just doesn’t look as explosive athletically as he did in high school, but he still put up awesome per-possession scoring numbers in an off-ball role by showing off his elite shotmaking. His freshman tape looks more like Richard Hamilton or Tre Johnson than anything else, bending defenses by darting around screens and splashing shots all over the floor. The fact that his shooting touch and outside volume both look better than expected is an encouraging sign for his star upside if he can regain his physical gifts. I had Peterson at No. 2 for most of the year, but at this point I’m tempted to slide him down to No. 4. Part of that is because North Carolina’s Caleb Wilson looked awesome before his season-ending thumb injury. Part of it is because Peterson just didn’t meet our expectations this season.
O’Donnell has Cam Boozer at No. 1 and A.J. Dybantsa and No. 2. He, too, only goes one round deep in his projections.
Adam Finkelstein is another vote for Cam Boozer who more than one draftnik thinks will carry the day (if available) because in addition to his skillset is that high character type Sean Marks & co. crave in the post Big 3 era. We’ve heard one draftnik describe Boozer in the simplest of terms: “the Perfect Net.”
This may be the easiest pick of the draft. Executives are terrified of missing on Dybantsa or Peterson if they end up reaching their full potential, but there’s little doubt that Boozer will be a long-term impact player. His resume of winning is unmatched, he’s physically ready for the next level and one of the smartest players in the draft. He’s a big-time rebounder, passer, has terrific hands and can operate at different spots on the floor offensively. Boozer has a war of a matchup Friday night against St. John’s and defensive menace Zuby Ejiofor.
The choice of a power forward would make for some interesting speculation come Draft Night. Boozer would not replace Nic Claxton or Day’Ron Sharpe in thinking about Nets big men. They all have different skillsets and fits. But of the Draft’s top three picks (if they get so lucky), he’s the one that would best round out the Nets team building exercise. Also, there’s no indication that the Nets are going to divert from their long-held belief in BPA — best player available. The reasoning is simple: you get a high lottery pick in a generational draft, you’re not drafting for next season. You’re drafting looking way down the road.
That said, Bryan Kalbrosky thinks that A.J. Dybantsa makes the most sense because he is the prospect most likely to raise the Nets level of offense which, as he notes, is currently horrific.
The Nets have the worst offense in the NBA and could instantly inject life into their offense by selecting AJ Dybantsa, who would likely go No. 1 overall depending on which team gets the pick. He emphasized that point during his one game for BYU in March Madness, putting up 35 points and 10 rebounds. The Big 12 Rookie of the Year led the nation in unassisted points scored (680) by a wide margin this season, per CBB Analytics. The emerging star also had 40 points against Kansas State in the Big 12 Tournament on March 10 and averaged 28.8 points per game over his final 17 appearances.
There may be other aspects of Dybantsa’s potential that could use some upgrades, including maturity, but the name of the game is buckets and he knows how to do that, as Kalbrosky notes. No second round projections from USA TODAY. You’ll see more draftniks delve into the second day of the draft the closer we get.
The Boston Celtics will look to build on their impressive win over the Oklahoma City Thunder as they host the Atlanta Hawks on Friday night.
Jayson Tatum came up big on Wednesday, and I’m counting on him to lead Boston to cover again in my Hawks vs. Celtics predictions.
Read on for more analysis of this matchup in my free NBA picks for Friday, March 27.
Hawks vs Celtics prediction
Hawks vs Celtics best bet: Celtics -4.5 (-110)
The Boston Celtics have been working Jayson Tatum back into the lineup, and that fully paid off on Wednesday, when he put up 19 points, 12 rebounds, and seven assists while playing more than 35 minutes against the Thunder.
Boston is now 7-2 with Tatum in the lineup this season. The 28-year-old is averaging 19.1 ppg and 9.2 rebounds per game, and while his shooting touch isn’t quite there yet, he showed improvement against the Thunder there as well, going 3-for-6 from three-point range.
The one thing that might make bettors question the Celtics tonight is the injury report. Jaylen Brown is out for tonight, which is a significant blow for Boston, but Derrick White and Neemias Queta will both be available after initial worries that the Celtics would be short-handed.
With Tatum healthy and improving in every game, Boston shouldn’t miss a beat.
The Atlanta Hawks continue to rack up wins since the All-Star break, but these wins have largely come against weaker competition. In their last two road games against quality opponents, the Hawks lost by 22 points to the Houston Rockets, then beat the Detroit Pistons by a single point in overtime on Wednesday.
As hot as the Hawks are right now, the Celtics are a different team with Tatum on the court, and they showed how tough they’ll be to beat at TD Garden down the stretch on Wednesday.
Hawks vs Celtics same-game parlay
The shaky injury report for Boston has sent the total down several points in this game, and that’s enough for me to target the Over.
The Hawks have hit the Over in five of their last six games, and there’s more than enough offensive talent on both sides to hit this number.
I’m also taking Tatum to grab Over 8.5 rebounds, a total he’s hit in each of his last four games.
Hawks vs Celtics SGP
Celtics -4.5
Over 225.5
Jayson Tatum Over 9.5 rebounds
Our "from downtown" SGP: Tatum Does it All!
With Tatum coming off his best game since his return from injury, I’m backing the Celtics star to shine again tonight, especially with a potentially limited roster around him.
I’ll add Tatum to pick up another double-double after recording three in his last four games. I also like him to get Over 5.5 assists after dishing out seven on Wednesday against the Thunder, and pick up Over 1.5 steals, which he’s done in two straight contests.
Hawks vs Celtics SGP
Celtics -4.5
Jayson Tatum double-double
Jayson Tatum Over 4.5 assists
Jayson Tatum Over 1.5 steals
Hawks vs Celtics odds
Spread: Hawks +7.5 | Celtics -7.5
Moneyline: Hawks +183 | Celtics -215
Over/Under: Over 224.5 | Under 224.5
Hawks vs Celtics betting trend to know
The Celtics have won five of their last six games by 5+ points. Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Celtics.
How to watch Hawks vs Celtics
Location
TD Garden, Boston, MA
Date
Friday, March 27, 2026
Tip-off
7:30 p.m. ET
TV
FDSN Southeast, NBC Sports Boston
Hawks vs Celtics latest injuries
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LOS ANGELES, CA - MARCH 14: LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers drives to the basket during the game against the Denver Nuggets on March 14, 2026 at Crypto.Com Arena in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
With the Western Conference a tight-knit race yet again this season, this series will look at the standings and games to watch across the league as the Lakers look to secure home court and move up the standings.
The Lakers had a great road trip, winning five of their six games. However, the teams beneath them also performed well, with the Wolves beating the Rockets and the Nuggets currently on a four-game winning streak.
So, while LA has the tiebreaker over the teams they are competing with for playoff position, the race remains tight.
Here’s a look at the current playoff standings in the middle of the conference: 3. Lakers — 47-26, 10 GB 4. Nuggets — 46-28, 11.5 GB 5. Wolves — 45-28, 12 GB 6. Rockets — 43-29, 13.5 GB 7. Suns — 40-33, 17 GB
If Denver keeps on winning, it’ll apply pressure on LA to do the same. With only a game and a half separating the two teams, anything can still happen.
Let’s take a look at the big games to watch around the league for the next couple of days and who Lakers fans should be rooting for.
Friday
Jazz at Nuggets — It’ll probably be five wins in a row for Denver after they play Utah. While the NBA aims to discourage tanking, under the current rules, the Jazz have no incentive to win.
Rockets at Grizzlies — Memphis has lost 12 of their last 13 games. The Rockets are struggling, but it’s hard to imagine them losing to the Grizzlies.
Dealing with a busted bracket?
The Sweet 16 is almost here – who’s still alive? We’re reviewing the week that was in the first week of the NCAA tournament and turning our focus to remaining teams. How bad (or good!) is your bracket? Join us in the SB Nation March Madness Feed and let’s talk about who’s most likely to make a run to glory.
Saturday
Pistons at Wolves — The Lakers lost to the Pistons, so they witnessed firsthand how tough they can be to beat. Perhaps this weekend, they can help LA out by beating Minnesota.
Jazz at Suns — Rooting for Utah to win in March is an exercise in futility.
Sunday
Warriors at Nuggets — Golden State is still trying to win games and potentially surpass the Blazers for the No. 9 seed in the West. With Steph Curry still out, they don’t have much firepower to compete with the Nuggets, but at least they are incentivized to do so.
Rockets at Pelicans — New Orleans has been playing better than their 25-49 record suggests. They are 5-5 in their last 10 games with wins over the Clippers and Raptors. They won’t be favored against the Rockets, but they’ll be at home and an upset is a possibility.
Monday
Wolves at Mavs — The Mavericks aren’t trying to win games. Check the box score at halftime and see if this contest is worth watching after that.
Suns at Grizzlies — The bad news here is that the Grizzlies play the Suns, and Laker fans want Memphis to win. The good news is the Suns are seven games back of the Lakers, so it’s virtually impossible for them to catch LA at this point.
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - MARCH 30: Donte DiVincenzo #0 of the Minnesota Timberwolves drives to the basket against Ausar Thompson #9 of the Detroit Pistons in the first quarter at Target Center on March 30, 2025 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Timberwolves defeated the Pistons 123-104. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Detroit Pistons Date: March 28th, 2026 Time: 4:30 PM CDT Location: Target Center Television Coverage: ABC, FanDuel Sports Network – North Radio Coverage: Wolves App, iHeart Radio
There are regular-season wins, and then there are the kind of wins that feel like they belong in a 30-for-30 intro montage. Wednesday night against the Houston Rockets was that kind of game for the Minnesota Timberwolves. Not just because of how it ended, but because of how many different ways it should have ended before it ever got there.
This wasn’t just another March game. This game was about standings math, playoff positioning, and psychological survival all wrapped into one. It was two teams entering with identical records, deadlocked in the Western Conference at the five seed, staring each other down with the kind of stakes that don’t need a playoff logo to feel like a playoff game. The winner gets separation. The loser gets anxiety.
And Minnesota walked into it shorthanded.
No Anthony Edwards. No Ayo Dosunmu.
Which meant renewed responsibility for Mike Conley Jr., more on-the-fly adjustments, and a general sense that this was going to be one of those nights where everything had to go right just to have a chance. Meanwhile, Houston rolled in with Kevin Durant, size, athleticism, and every reason to believe this was their moment to seize control of the standings and snatch the tie-breaker with the Wolves.
For about 44 minutes, Minnesota didn’t just survive. They controlled the game. The Wolves looked like the team with the clearer identity. They dictated the tempo, leaned into their physicality, and played through their size in a way that has become their most reliable offensive blueprint. The result? 63 points in the paint.
Defensively, they were connected. Rotations were sharp. The effort level, something that completely vanished during that California spiral, was back where it needed to be. The lead never ballooned into a blowout, but it lived in that steady 4-to-8-point range, the kind that tells you one team is just a little more in control than the other.
Then late in the game, Minnesota stretched it.
Eleven-point lead. Three and a half minutes left.
And if you’ve watched this team long enough, you already know what comes next.
This is where the game turned from a basketball contest into something closer to a psychological endurance test.
Minnesota gave up a 12–0 run. The offense tightened. The ball movement stalled. The rhythm disappeared. And layered on top of that, the Wolves found themselves on the receiving end of a whistle pattern that, let’s just say, tilted things in a very specific direction.
Houston finished with 25 free throws. Minnesota got 10. That’s not just a discrepancy. That’s a storyline, especially when the Wolves are living in the paint all night. Then came the moment that flipped everything: a flagrant foul on Julius Randle running through a screen, which turned a tense finish into a full-on momentum avalanche. Free throws, possession, chaos.
The lead evaporated, and suddenly, everyone in Target Center found themsslves back in that familiar Wolves nightmare, the one where they snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Except this time, there was a twist.
Down one, late, with everything unraveling, Julius Randle rose to the occasion and forced a massive bucket to put Minnesota back up by one. It’s the kind of shot that feels like it should be the story. The kind that usually becomes the defining moment, but Scott Foster and his crew had other ideas.
Houston’s final trip down the floor required an inbounds pass, and the refs took the opportunity to turn a Sengun flop into a Rudy Gobert foul-out, sending the Rockets to the free-throw line for the game-tying point.
Overtime.
And if that final minute of the 4th quarter felt like survival, what followed felt like punishment.
In overtime, Minnesota was basically playing a game of musical chairs with its rotation.
No Edwards. No Ayo. Rudy Gobert fould out. Jaden McDaniels injured.
Then Naz Reid gets hit with a charge call that somehow gets upheld despite Alperen Sengun very clearly not being set and then gets ejected for good measure.
So now you’re down basically… everyone.
Houston opened overtime on a 13–0 run. Minnesota has been outscored 26-2 over the course of six minutes. The Target Center crowd is already halfway out the door, fans muttering, typing the mental postgame recap that ends with “same old Wolves.”
Except… it wasn’t.
Because out of absolutely nowhere, with a lineup that felt like it had been assembled five minutes earlier, Minnesota rips off 15 straight points.
Not a couple of lucky buckets. Not a mini run. A full-on reversal of reality.
The energy flipped. The defense tightened. The shots fell. The Rockets look stunned. And the Wolves, who had every excuse in the world to fold, just kept coming.
Down two in the final seconds, Durant got to the line (because of course he did) with a chance to swing things back.
Miss.
The subsequent intentional miss goes nowhere.
And just like that, the Wolves walk away with a win that makes absolutely no sense on paper and somehow means everything in the standings.
Why This Matters More Than It Should
This wasn’t just about beating Houston. This was about survival in a stretch that could have buried their season.
After that disastrous California trip where they couldn’t defend anybody and looked completely disconnected, the Wolves have now won four out of five games without Anthony Edwards.
That’s not accidental. That’s identity. They’ve rediscovered what works: defense, physicality, connected offense. Not hero ball. Not hoping Ant saves them. Actual structure.
And now they’ve put themselves in position to do something that felt impossible a few days ago.
Detroit, and the Trap That’s Always There
As if Wednesday night wasn’t enough of a test, now comes the part where this team has historically failed.
They get to face a Detroit Pistons team missing their best player in Cade Cunningham, on an early-tip weekend game, with a chance to grab real momentum and go 3–0 through a brutal stretch.
It’s the amalgamation of every scenario this team has fumbled all season.
Keys to the Game
1. Recommit to That Defensive Identity
What we saw against Houston, and before that against Boston, was the version of Minnesota that actually works. It wasn’t flashy. It wasn’t about one guy going nuclear. It was about five guys moving on a string, shrinking driving lanes, contesting everything, and forcing opponents to grind through possessions like they’re dragging a sled uphill.
That has to carry over. This team hasn’t shown success in winning shootouts. Their margin for error lives on the defensive end, and if they want to finish this gauntlet 3–0, it starts with bringing that same suffocating, connected effort for a full 48 minutes.
2. Dominate the Paint Like You Mean It
The Wolves didn’t just edge Houston inside, they imposed their will with 63 points in the paint, and it changed the entire tone of the game. That’s not just a stat you glance at. It’s the identity they need to lean into when Edwards isn’t there to bail them out.
Now they get a Detroit team anchored by Jalen Duren. This is where Rudy Gobert has to be a monster again. Every rebound, every loose ball, every shot at the rim needs to be his territory.
Julius Randle can’t have another Portland-type night where the effort comes and goes. This is a grown-man game. You either win the paint or you spend the night chasing.
3. Keep the Ball Moving
One of the weird silver linings of the Anthony Edwards absence has been how the offense has opened up. The ball has moved more. Players are cutting. Decisions are quicker. There’s less of that “everyone stand around and watch Ant cook” dynamic.
That has to continue.
Randle has actually struck a nice balance lately of attacking when needed, but also kicking out and trusting teammates. That’s the version of him that makes this offense dangerous. The moment this devolves into isolation-heavy, slow-developing possessions, you’re playing right into Detroit’s hands.
Minnesota doesn’t need a hero tonight. They need five guys making the right read, over and over again, until the defense cracks.
4. Push the Pace When the Opportunity Is There
Without Edwards, the Wolves don’t have that same instant offense button, but they do have ways to manufacture easy points. And it starts with getting out in transition.
Players like Ayo Dosunmu and Bones Highland can push tempo, collapse the defense, and either finish or kick out for clean looks. That’s where this team can steal 10–12 easy points that don’t require half-court execution.
And against a Detroit team that wants to play physical and grind, those transition buckets are like cheat codes. They break rhythm, flip momentum, and turn a close game into a manageable one.
5. Don’t Beat Yourselves (Because You Almost Just Did)
This is the one that matters most, because we just watched it nearly cost them everything.
Turnovers. Missed free throws. Mental lapses. Those three-minute avalanches where the entire operation falls apart and suddenly a comfortable lead is gone or a close game becomes a massive hole. It happened at the end of regulation against Houston. It happened again at the start of overtime. The Wolves were incredibly fortunate to survive it.
Detroit won’t care that Minnesota just pulled off one of the wildest wins of the season. If the Wolves give them those same openings, this game flips in a heartbeat.
So this is about discipline. Value every possession. Secure rebounds. Hit your free throws. Make the simple play.
It’s one thing to lose because the other team is better. It’s another to lose because you handed it to them.
The Bigger Picture: One Win Away From Something Real
A few days ago, this team looked like it was spiraling: defense gone, identity gone, standings slipping, everything trending in the wrong direction at the worst possible time.
Now?
They’ve taken down Boston. They’ve survived Houston in a game that should’ve broken them three different times. They’ve won four out of five without Edwards and somehow rediscovered the version of themselves that actually has postseason teeth.
Yet this is the exact kind of spot where the old Wolves fold.
Emotional high. Undermanned opponent. Chance to stack a third straight win in a brutal stretch. Early tip on a weekend. Every possible ingredient for a letdown.
If this team is serious. If this stretch is actually the beginning of something and not just another hill on the roller coaster, then this is the game where they prove it.
Because the next rung on the ladder is right there again. Not handed to them. Not guaranteed. But right there within reach.
And after everything they just went through… it would be a shame to fall off it now.
Chet Holmgren
Ace Bailey
Donovan Clingan
