
Last week I chose roles and a grading curriculum for the Minnesota starting group. Today, it’s the bench’s turn. Before diving into the individual players, I want to introduce one other stat that will be part of this season-long project: Estimated Plus/Minus (EPM).
You can read about the nitty gritty of EPM here, but I’d offer this big picture overview: EPM is a statistical calculation that looks at a player’s past, their current performance, and most importantly, the context of their plus/minus (game situation, players they shared the court with, etc…) in an attempt navigate all the variables that go into a +10 or -10 night on a basketball court.
As the season goes along, I’ll be tracking the trends of different players in each of the three main EPM categories: Offensive Estimated Plus/Minus, Defensive Estimated Plus/Minus and Total Estimated Plus/Minus. Here are where the numbers stand as we enter the season:

A few standout points:
- Holy LaMelo. He is an EPM darling with the 3rd best offensive EPM in the league and 7th best overall EPM behind:
- Victory Wembanyama: 7.8
- Nikola Jokić: 7.3
- Kawhi Leonard: 7.3
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 7.0
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: 6.7
- Luka Dončić: 6.4
- It’s easy to forget how good Donte DiVincenzo was last season and how much of a boon his return will be.
- Edwards had a pretty precipitous dropoff from previous seasons where he was the top EPM player on the team. With this roster being built more for him, I’d expect his number to climb back up above 3.0.
- Kuminga’s defensive EPM really skyrocketed during his Atlanta stint and enters the season as the third-ranked defensive player in the group. His offense… well, safe to say there is a lot of room for improvement!
- The bench minutes distribution will be fascinating to watch with Ayo Dosunmu’s role being the only one that feels set in stone – EPM numbers are making a strong argument for Bones.
That’s it for now with EPM, let’s get to the bench unit’s report card preview!
A reminder about how the grades work:
1. These grades are roles-based, so the stats I’m looking at for each player are different and meant to highlight their team role.
2. Roles on the team can change as the roster and playing time changes—I will alter or add statistical categories throughout the season as needed. Especially in a preseason article, the expectation is that some of these initial stats will change as we get to know the team better.
3. The grade ranges and their correlation to stats are educated speculation based on previous career averages, team role, and minutes expectation. Like the categories themselves, if there is a range that is clearly missing the eye test, expect some tweaks as the season goes along.
4. The season is divided into four quarters; twenty to twenty-one game increments. There will be a mid quarter update (10ish games), quarter, semester and final grades throughout the regular season and series grades in the playoffs.
Ayo Dosunmo: The “As You Wish” Bench Superstar

The Stats: Player Impact Estimate, Points Per Shot Attempt, Overall Estimated Plus/Minus

The Why Behind Them: “Hey Ayo, the offense started a little sluggish, could you come in and help us push it in transition and get some easy buckets?”
“As you wish.”
“Hey Ayo, Jaden is in foul trouble, could you come in and spend the rest of the first half as the primary matchup for the opponent’s best perimeter player?”
“As you wish.”
“Hey Ayo, the other team has a much bigger lineup than us and we could really use help boxing out and rebounding from our perimeter guys – could you focus on that?”
“As you wish.”
The role for Ayo Dosunmo really cemented in my mind during Monday’s preseason game when the backup unit was struggling to rebound, leading to Coach Chris Finch calling a timeout. Out of the timeout, everyone’s box-out effort increased, but the player who was noticeably around/going after every missed shot was Ayo Dosunmo.
Ayo’s expansive skillset as a ready short- or long-term sub for any of the Wolves’ starters (sans Rudy Gobert) is going to be invaluable to this team this season. Foul trouble, rest nights, and injuries will impact this franchise so much less because of Dosunmo’s ability to come in and fill the need for the night.
It is this ability that makes choosing stats to track a little bit more difficult. I’ve settled on Player Impact Estimate (PIE), Points Per Shot Attempt and Overall Estimated Plus/Minus.
Last season, Dosunmo ranked 4th on the team in PIE, behind Edwards, Gobert and Randle. In the playoffs, despite a San Antonio series that really hurt everyone’s numbers, Dosunmo was the best player on the team for guys that played in both series (Donte DiVincenzo was #1 overall but didn’t get hit with the San Antonio blowout tax).
Ayo has always been an efficient scorer, but it wasn’t until I looked closing at his Points Per Shot Attempt (PSA) that I realized how good his last season was: In 45 games with Chicago, he was a 96th percentile efficient scorer (128.6), and in Minnesota, he was in the 91st percentile (124.5). This is a player who knows what parts of his game he excels at and finds ways to lean into them while he’s on the court.
The last stat was probably his least encouraging number: Estimated Plus/Minus. His overall EPM last season was that of a middle of the road player, but that feels like a number that’s been pretty damaged due to seasons playing on some bad Chicago teams. I expect this season to be a bit of a market correction for Dosunmo as that number better reflects the quality of player that he is.
Joan Beringer: “Schrödinger’s Prospect”

The Stats: Minutes Per Game, Offensive Rebounds Per 36, Blocks Per 36

The Why Behind Them: Since Joan Beringer was drafted, all us fans have heard are tantalizing nuggets of information about how much the team loves him, his work ethic, and the flashes they see of a future player he could become. To this point, we’ve seen enough glimpses that make us feel very similarly to an accursed bog witch. But the problem is that it all has been short glimpses, theoretical growth, and projected roles.
It is finally time to set all of that aside, lift open the lid of the box, and finally discover what kind of prospect this franchise has.
There is a reason Beringer is second on this list: After Ayo Donsunmo, he has the most clearly defined role. The Timberwolves will be employing a Frenchman tandem on the center position, and pending foul trouble, (a fair concern) their ideal plan is for their two Eiffel Towers to handle all of the minutes at the center position.
The first and most important stat for Beringer? Minutes per game. I’m choosing this over a fouling statistic because it will prove two things: His fouling isn’t prohibitive to his playing time (cause he will foul!) and his production matches that of an NBA rotation player on a contending team.
The other two are zooming in on two skills that have already flashed in limited playing time: Offensive rebounds and blocks per 36 minutes. For players that played in at least 40 games last season (Beringer’s number), he finished 5th in the league in blocks per 36 and 13th in offensive rebounds. These are the tantalizing glimpses that we’ve seen in limited playing time that if proven to be correct, we’ll have opened the box to find the prospect was alive and thriving all the time.
Terrance Shannon Jr.: The “Left-Handed Falcon Punch”

The Stats: Free Throws Per 36, Field Goat Percentage Under 5ft, Defensive EPM

The Why Behind Them: My Super Smash playing days peaked in 1999 when I was an unstoppable flying force flying through the air with Pikachu, using a spinning quick attack in tandem with a thunderbolt. But you want to know the player that was always my nemesis? Captain Friggin Falcon.
My far superior (and honestly, more noble) strategy didn’t matter since all Falcon had to do was just spam that “B” button over and over again, inducing his fiery punch of instant death. Cue all my best laid plans laid to waste with the words that still echo in my nightmares: “Falcon PUUUUNCH!!”
In the offseason, Canis’ Thilo Widder wrote a great piece about TJ Shannon’s role and biggest value potentially being as a trade piece. Whether he’s here longterm or is being showcased for trade value, his path to success is clear: Spam that “B” button superpower.
From a defensive standpoint, there would be nothing more frustrating than game planning for LaMelo-Ant pick and rolls, lob threats to the bigs and wings, and just when you think you can take a deep breath, here comes the fiery stick-of-dynamite-like attack of the wing from Illinois, not letting your defenders catch their breath for a moment.
So that’s where I’m starting with Shannon Jr. His first two stats are all about relentless aggression on offense. In the post-season, he averaged 2.7 free throws attempted (FTA) per game in a twenty-two minute per game role – a decent chunk of that coming during Edwards’ injury stretch. Last season he took 1.7 FTAs during the regular season, so the number finds itself in the middle with the context of a healthy Anthony Edwards and a coaching staff that has zeroed in on his ideal role.
The second stat is based on this little known quirk about TJ Shannon’s offensive game: He likes to finish at the basket with his left hand. No, I’m serious. Hours of film study has revefaled this heretofore unknown part of his game… and shockingly, only using one hand around the basket led him to having the 2nd worst FG% around the basket on the team, ahead of only 100-year old Mike Conley (miss you Bite Bite!). He just has to be better and the 60% mark would be a big step up from his 52.9% last season.
The final stat I’ll be tracking is about season-long defensive effectiveness and his “A” range falls in the range of a 60th percentile defender, up a decent step from where he finished last year at -1.1 (22nd percentile defender). The advanced regular season stats were not kind to TJ last year – here’s hoping a narrowed offensive role that involves the repeated use of his greatest strength allows him to thrive off the bench this season.
*Additional note after Wednesday’s preseason game: The problem with “B” button spamming is that good coaches will help to prepare their team to be ready for it. Even in a preseason game, it was clear that Indiana defenders knew what Shannon Jr. most wanted to do and were prepared for it which made it a tougher night for the wing from Illinois. This strategy will work against a decent amount of NBA teams, but the best defenses? There is reason to be skeptical.
Bones Hyland: The Vibes Guy

The Stats: Pace and Skelly Cellys

The Why Behind Them: You’ll notice a change in tracked stats for the final stretch of guys here, and that is because the next three players are projected to be more of spot-rotation guys. If I’m wrong and they carve out regular rotation roles, I’ll excitedly add another stat for any of them to reflect the increase. But my guess now is that while these three will see the court, it will be done more based on matchups, foul trouble, or injuries.
To call Bones a vibes guy isn’t meant to diminish his basketball acumen; he had real moments of brilliance in both the regular season and the playoffs. He will have real moments this season as well. However, when the team is fully healthy and clicking on all-cylinders, he’ll have more of a deeper bench role. But when there’s an injury, foul trouble or an “off” energy night, that is going to be his time to thrive.
Stat number one is all about the turbo button. The doldrums of an NBA season are inescapable. Having a deeper rotation player that can offer some of the same things that makes LaMelo’s game so special can make the difference on any given night. Check into a game with the sleepy starting crew, inject some pace, make a logo three and turn to the crown and do your signature celebration. Speaking of…
The last stat is a first for me: A hand-counted celebration/vibe stat. A reminder that those numbers represented are per quarter, but another caveat to add: A “Skelly Celly” stat also carried over to another play hitting and shot and turning to Bones on the bench and throwing the celebration. ALSO a camera shot of Bones on the bench celebrating.
As the only member of the Skelly Celly analytics department, the number that I end up with will be final and ultimate.
Trey Lyles: The Celery

The Stats: 3-Point Percentage and Defensive Rating

The Why Behind Them: The celery role (and another very timely mid-90s reference) isn’t meant to be a dig at Lyles. I mean, Cory Matthews married Topanga afterall! And celery is good for you. It’s full of nutrients, contains lots of water, and can help lower your blood pressure. It’s just… not all that exciting.
Before the Jonathan Kuminga signing, I was ready to make a case for Trey Lyles as a starter and his excellent skillset fit between Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert. His 3-point shooting is a real NBA skill and is theoretically better than every other big on the Wolves roster.
The problem is, that may be the only good-to-great NBA skill that Lyles has to offer outside of experience. He deserves time to get his NBA-feet back underneath him, but to go from Europe to a rotation player on an NBA contender is a large ask. He’s got to prove that he can still do it on the defensive end which includes being an effective player at boxing out and ending possessions.
If Lyles can show some improved defensive acumen and physicality on the glass, he has a chance to prove he’s more than just celery: He’s ants on a log.
Jaylen Clark: The Relief Pitcher

The Stats: Steals Per 36 Minutes and Offensive EPM

The Why Behind Them: Confession: There is still a Nickiel Alexander-Walker sized hole in my heart that my gut tells me Jaylen Clark is the most likely candidate to fill. Defensive effort and will is a skill that he has in bunches and one that I will always place a bet on for a long-term prospect. His ideal role on a contending squad is to act like a middle innings reliever – come in for the starter (McDaniels), “pitch” an inning or two guarding the other team’s best player, and sub out with a readiness to come in whenever game situation allows.
His struggles defensively have most to do with seasoning. Knowing when to go off-script and chase a splash play (a block or a steal), and when to calmly move your feet, use your physicality, and stay within the scope of a defensive gameplan. He chases big defensive plays a lot which is fun to watch, but also seems to get him some early hooks to the bench if it leads to being out of position and giving up an easy bucket.
On offense, Clark just needs to be better. Of all the players that saw significant time for the Wolves last season, his -1.8 offensive EPM would rank last on the team and would make him a 22nd percentile offensive player in the league. His cutting is a real skill that should be better utilized with better passers around him, but his longevity on the squad is going to come down to hitting open 3-point shots.
Donte DiVincenzo: The Return of the King

The Stat: Games Played

The Why Behind It: The only expectation that is being placed on our Ginger King is the hope that we get to see him play meaningful basketball. Should he return and prove to be healthy? Well, we’ll start planning for some impactful stats for a playoff run.
Cody Williams: Role Loading…

The Stats: Pending

The Why Behind It: Cody Williams has flashed enough in the first two preseason games that he is a late addition to the projected rotation. These flashes have been a bit of a warning shot to Jaylen Clark believers like myself because if he can come close to matching Clark’s defensive potential, Williams clearly has a much larger offensive bag that includes bits of ball handling and playmaking. The committee is keeping a close eye on the newest young wolf.
And there it is. The report cards are set for the 2026-2027 Timberwolves. I’ll be back after 10 games to offer an update on where these numbers are falling, explain any alterations or tweaks based on early season performance, and have a ton of fun overreacting to small sample size numbers. Happy Wolves season everyone!













