Category: Basketball

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The Orlando Magic welcome the Washington Wizards to the Kia Center this evening, with tipoff scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. 

Desmond Bane has been balling out, and my Wizards vs. Magic predictions are targeting him to keep it rolling against Washington. 

Read more in my NBA picks for Tuesday, March 3.

Wizards vs Magic prediction

Wizards vs Magic best bet: Desmond Bane Over 21.5 points (-110)

Desmond Bane has averaged 20.3 points per game, ranking third on the Orlando Magic behind Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero. 

The TCU product has cashed the Over in four of his last five appearances, posting 30+ points in three of those. While he scored just 17 in his most recent game against the Pistons, Bane erupted for 30 just two days prior against the Rockets. 

Bane is averaging 22.3 points at home this season, and the Washington Wizards aren’t exactly an elite team, ranking only above the Jazz in overall defensive efficiency.

Wizards vs Magic same-game parlay

Banchero is averaging 8.5 rebounds this season, and he’s coming off a 10-board performance against Detroit.

The former first-overall pick has cashed the Over in rebounds in two of his last three, and he’s up against a Wizards team giving up 10.8 boards per contest to power forwards.

Jalen Suggs is Orlando’s best playmaker, averaging 5.2 assists per game. He’s dished out Over 5.5 dimes in seven of his last 10 outings. 

Wizards vs Magic SGP

• Desmond Bane Over 21.5 points
• Paolo Banchero Over 9.5 rebounds
• Jalen Suggs Over 5.5 assists

Our "from downtown" SGP: Cast a Deadly Spell

Bane is averaging 2.4 makes at home for a 40% clip from deep, and he’s cashed the Over in triples in two of his last three games at the Kia Center. With how bullish we are on several key Magic players, we'll add Orlando to cover the lofty spread to boost our odds.

Wizards vs Magic SGP

• Desmond Bane Over 21.5 points
• Paolo Banchero Over 9.5 rebounds
• Jalen Suggs Over 5.5 assists
• Desmond Bane Over 2.5 made threes
• Magic -15.5

Wizards vs Magic odds

• Spread: Wizards +15.5 (-110) | Magic -15.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Wizards +750 | Magic -1200
• Over/Under: Over 228.5 (-110) | Under 228.5 (-110)

Wizards vs Magic betting trend to know

The Washington Wizards have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 45 games (+11.80 Units / 26% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Wizards vs. Magic.

How to watch Wizards vs Magic

Wizards vs Magic latest injuries

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It took two games for Jose Alvarado to win the hearts of New Yorkers after the trade deadline.

Honestly, Jose had our hearts a long time before that, and it was only a matter of time until he put on a Knicks uniform. But still: the moment had arrived. Finally, after years of Alvarado to New York rumors flying around, the front office finally pulled the trigger on February 5th. Less than a week later, Jose made history, becoming the first player in Knicks franchise history to record 25+ points, 5+ steals, and 5+ three-pointers in a game off the bench. Keep in mind the fact that the Knicks got him for a bag of chips (sorry, Yabusele and Dalen Terry) and the deal only gets sweeter and sweeter from there.

This wasn’t a one-off performance, either. Alvarado has been averaging 8.4 points, 2.9 boards, and 3.9 assists in just under 20 minutes per game. Add to the equation his 1.7 steals per outing, and it’s easy to see how his constant energy and effort amount to a flurry of activity on the court.

It’s not just the eye test – numbers nerds should love him as well. The advanced stats back it up. The Knicks have a 98.1(!!) defensive rating with him on the floor. For reference, OKC leads the league with a 106.1 defensive rating. New York’s defense, led by Alvarado, is on par with some of the best lineups in the league. And the offensive side of things remains just as strong, with a 118.0 rating. That gives Alvarado a 19.9 net rating, which over the course of the season would be far and away the best in the league.

Expect some regression on both ends here, but nine games is a large enough sample size to look at Alvarado’s production and say that we might have something here. Keep in mind – excluding his flamethrowing game at Philadelphia, Jose is shooting only 20% from deep, so there’s still room to grow.

New York wanted to strengthen their bench at the trade deadline after the Jordan Clarkson experiment didn’t go exactly to plan. They wanted a guy who would play hard on both sides of the floor. They got the prototype.

The next question, and rightfully so, is whether a Brunson/Alvarado backcourt hold their own together? There’s a lot of talent there, of course, but the lack of size hurts. A lot.

So far, the two have played 77 minutes together, and according to net rating, it’s been the offense that takes the bump, not the defense. Again, it’s a small sample size, but Mike Brown hasn’t shied away from pairing the two together, and it’s delivered encouraging returns so far.

The other thing is, how does the return of Deuce McBride impact Alvarado’s minutes off the bench come playoff time? McBride also serves as a combo guard who can shoot the three and play tough defense. We’ll see how Brown manages the two down the stretch of the season.

However you see it, though, it’s an excellent problem to have. Alvarado is making the Knicks better already, and he’s exactly the kind of spark plug you want off of your bench in a best-of-seven series.

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The shorthanded Oklahoma City Thunder visits the United Center for a non-conference matchup tonight with the Chicago Bulls.

Oklahoma City has dominated Chicago in recent history, and my Thunder vs. Bulls predictions expect that dominance to continue tonight. 

Read on for my NBA picks for Tuesday, March 3. 

Thunder vs Bulls prediction

Thunder vs Bulls best bet: Thunder -10.5 (-105)

Despite missing Isaiah Hartenstein and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tonight, the Oklahoma City Thunder enter as a well-oiled machine against a Chicago Bulls squad in a total tailspin. 

While the Bulls recently beat a Giannis-less Milwaukee team, they entered that game on a staggering 11-game losing streak and rank dead last in net rating since the trade deadline. 

OKC boasts the league’s No. 1 defensive rating and covers 57% of its road games. Facing a "tanking" Bulls “G-League” roster, the Thunder’s elite defensive efficiency and transition offense should pull away for a double-digit cover.

Thunder vs Bulls same-game parlay

With OKC missing three starters, Luguentz Dort and Chet Holmgren will likely receive heavy usage. 

Dort has cleared 10.5 points in three straight games without SGA, while Holmgren’s 19-point Dallas performance could fuel another big night against the leaky Bulls defense. 

Thunder vs Bulls SGP

• Thunder -10.5
• Luguentz Dort Over 10.5 points
• Chet Holmgren Over 18.5 points

Our "from downtown" SGP: Cason closed

Cason Wallace is another who should see heavy usage. He dropped eight dimes Sunday at Dallas and has cleared his assist total in four of his previous six contests. 

Thunder vs Bulls SGP

• Thunder -10.5
• Luguentz Dort Over 10.5 points
• Chet Holmgren Over 18.5 points
• Cason Wallace Over 5.5 assists

Thunder vs Bulls odds

• Spread: Thunder -10.5 (-105) | Bulls +10.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: Thunder -475 | Bulls +370
• Over/Under: Over 229 | Under 229

Thunder vs Bulls betting trend to know

The Chicago Bulls have only covered the spread in 18 of their last 50 games (-16.10 units / -29% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Bulls.

How to watch Thunder vs Bulls

Thunder vs Bulls latest injuries

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The team with the fewest wins in the NBA faces a playoff hopeful as the Sacramento Kings host the Phoenix Suns tonight.

Maxime Raynaud has seen big minutes and big numbers in Sacramento’s shorthanded frontcourt, and my Suns vs. Kings predictions expect a stat-stuffing performance from the rook.

Here are my best free NBA picks for this Pacific Division showdown on Tuesday, March 3.

Suns vs Kings prediction

Suns vs Kings best bet: Maxime Raynaud double-double (+105)

The Sacramento Kings are missing Domantas Sabonis and Dylan Cardwell, which means Maxime Raynaud will see ample playing time.

Raynaud has 12 double-doubles on the season, and four of them have come across his last six outings.

In those six games, Raynaud has averaged 15.3 points and 11 rebounds across 31.2 minutes. In that span, the Phoenix Suns have surrendered the sixth-most rebounds (47.8).

Given Raynaud’s recent success as a scorer and rebounder, this line is mispriced, and I’m happy to take this profitable wager at plus-money odds.

Suns vs Kings same-game parlay

Nique Clifford has started two straight games, and he's averaged 32.5 PRA across 40.5 minutes. The rookie has averaged 19.4 PRA across 12 starts, hitting the Over on this combo line in three of his last five in the starting lineup.

The Kings' offense isn't going to put up a ton of points regularly, and the Phoenix Suns are 25-35 to the Under this season.

Suns vs Kings SGP

• Maxime Raynaud double-double
• Nique Clifford Over 22.5 points+rebounds+assists
• Under 223

Our "from downtown" SGP: Kings of the hill

The Suns hit the road after playing eight of nine at home, while Sacramento is back home after five straight on the road. Phoenix is just 3-6-1 ATS across its last 10, and the Kings will be motivated to avoid the season sweep by a division rival after dropping three straight to PHX. 

Suns vs Kings SGP

• Maxime Raynaud double-double
• Nique Clifford Over 22.5 points+rebounds+assists
• Under 223
• Kings moneyline

Suns vs Kings odds

• Spread: Suns -10.5 | Kings +10.5
• Moneyline: Suns -500 | Kings +375
• Over/Under: Over 223 | Under 223

Suns vs Kings betting trend to know

The Sacramento Kings have hit the team total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+9.35 Units / 16% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Kings.

How to watch Suns vs Kings

Suns vs Kings latest injuries

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Don’t fear, Canadian friends! The Knicks (39*-22) are in your country to face the Raptors (35-25), not to start a war. Unless they lose. Then maybe Canada becomes an existential threat.

This tilt features two top-five Eastern Conference teams, with New York third and Toronto fifth. Both have won six of their last 10 games. When they last met, on January 28, New York whomped Toronto, 119–92, behind a blistering 30 points from Mikal Bridges. OG Anunoby added 26 points and a season-high six steals, while Josh Hart matched a season-high with 22 points. For the Dinos, Brandon Ingram led with 27 points, Scottie Barnes posted 17 points and 10 rebounds, and our old pal RJ Barrett chipped in 14.

The Toronto Raptors beat the Wizards, 134 to 125, on Saturday thanks to 27 points and 11 assists from Immanuel Quickley. In a Sunday matinee, the Knicks beat the Spurs, 114–89, behind 25 points from Mikal Bridges. Jalen Brunson scored 24 with seven assists, and Josh Hart chipped in a 10-10 double-double. Victor Wembanyama led San Antonio with 25 points and 13 boards.

The Raptors post a 114.9 offensive rating, 16th in the league. Their defensive rating is 112.9, seventh overall. They score 114 points per game, ranking 22nd, and surrender 112, eighth in the league. They don’t take a ton of threes – 33 per game – maybe because they shoot 35%. Don’t be fooled by their 35 wins; most of those came against the league’s weaker teams.

That sleepy All-Star Ingram averages 22 PPG and shoots 37% for Toronto, while fellow All-Star Barnes puts up 19 PPG and grabs 8 RPG. As for the OAKAAKs, Barrett can be counted on for 18 PPG, and Quickley logs almost 18 points per game and 6 APG, shooting 38% from yard. Sandro (never forget) Mamukelashvili averages 11 PPG and grabs five boards.

The Raptors’ likely starting five will be Quickley, Ingram, Barrett, Barnes, andJakob Poeltl (9.8 PPG, 7.4 RPG). The game’s injury report says you won’t see Miles McBride, Collin Murray-Boyles, and Mr. Chucky Hepburn. And we thought the only Chucky in the league was Cam Thomas.

THIS DATE IN KNICKS HISTORY:  On March 3, 1967, Walt Bellamy logged a triple-double, recording 29 points, 14 rebounds and 10 assists in a 138-132 loss to the Lakers in L.A. The following year, the Hall-of-Famer was traded with Howard Komives to the Detroit Pistons for Dave DeBusschere.

Prediction

ESPN gives the Knicks a 56% chance to win. As they should. The Knicks hold a better record and lead the five-game season series, 3-0. Their frontcourt might be thin, though; Mitchell Robinson is likely to sit, given that he’ll be needed tomorrow at home against the Thunder.

Which raises a good point: since our heroes will have to zip back across the border and face OKC in approximately 24 hours, how much effort should they exert tonight, in a possible playoff preview? Conventional wisdom suggests they should pace themselves, which could result in a tighter game. Plus, Quickley loves to shoot three-pointers against the Knicks, making 11-of-25 in five career games against his old team. When they met in January, Quick stunk and posted seven points on nine shots in almost 30 minutes. He’ll do better tonight. Although the Knicks have beaten the Raptors 11 straight times, winning number 12 might not be so easy. New York takes this one by three.

Game Details

Who: New York Knicks (39*-22) at Toronto Raptors (35-25)
Date: Tuesday, March 3, 2026
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Place: ScotiaBank Arena, Toronto, CA
TV: MSG
Follow: @ptknicksblog and bsky

* Should be one more, but NBA Cup wins, like love, are evanescent stuff.

Last night’s loss by the Washington Wizards — this time to the Houston Rockets — seems from the numbers like it was at least a somewhat entertaining game. They fell behind by as much as 19, then went ham in the fourth quarter to trim the final margin to just five.

Now, it was one of those sorta phony “comebacks” that was more than a little about Houston slacking off. But, Sharife Cooper had the game of his career and the quarter of his life (11 points on 5 shots, plus 2 assists in the fourth). Jaden Hardy shot 4-4 in the period. Justin Champagnie 3-3.

So, I’d imagine these guys were giving a helluva good effort and it might have even been fun to see.

Unfortunately, I can only imagine because of the NBA’s blackout rules. I live in the Houston market, so I can’t use League Pass. Well, technically I can, I just have to wait three days.

“Every NBA game is available live with NBA League Pass in every country except the US and Canada due to blackouts,” the league explains on their website. “Blackout restrictions exist because local and national content providers have certain exclusive rights to show live games and content.”

The problem, of course, is that these blackout rules were made decades ago when the only ways to watch games were to show up in person or catch it on over-the-air TV. Cable TV entered the fray and made local market games available to subscribers, which for a time was virtually every household.

We’re in the cable cutting era now. According to AdWave, 80% of US households had a pay cable, satellite, in 2011. The current number is about half that. In 2024, 4 million households canceled cable per day. The pace increased in 2025 — an estimated 77 million households dumped their cable TV subscriptions last year alone.

In other words, cable and satellite are dying. People are consuming content over the internet and via streaming services. Or they’re pirating games they want to see by watching illegal streams that put their device and network security at risk.

The goal of these kinds of blackouts is to force people like me to buy cable or satellite so I can watch these games. That’s the theory. The reality is that it’s not working. Any bump the cable company gets from sports fans is offset by the millions of households canceling. Or, in my case, not subscribing at all when I moved to Texas.

Archaic blackouts are doing two main things at this point;

1. Punishing fans who don’t have a cable subscription. I’m a hoops junkie who enjoys the way the Rockets play and would watch virtually every game — if I could. But I’m not paying another $20+ per month on top of my League Pass subscription to watch the Rockets. I’ll catch them on national TV or put on a three-day old game in the background when I’m doing something else.
2. Undermining the development of new fans. To me, this is the more serious consequence. I became a fan watching over-the-air Bullets games on channel 20 — at-times staticky and often in black-and-white (that’s what we had in the kitchen) — but I could follow the action, especially when the great Mel Proctor was calling the game. How does a kid who’s curious about NBA basketball but doesn’t know much experience more than highlights if her parents don’t have the right subscriptions to watch games until three days after the game?

The three-day waiting period to watch an NBA game is absurd. Preposterous. Ridiculous. Unreasonable. By the time last night’s game is legally available to me, the Wizards will have played the Orlando Magic (tonight) and the Utah Jazz (Thursday). Which is to say, I’m never watching this game. I may see clips at some point if I’m doing some video analysis, but that’s it.

It’s time for the very smart people running the NBA to update these broadcast policies to reflect the changed reality of how people consume content. A League Pass subscriber should have access to every game, regardless of where it’s played or who’s broadcasting it. Financial aspects might get complex, but this seems like the sort of problem that smart people could figure out — or at least prompt an AI to figure it out for them.

I’ll stop complaining with this: The NBA’s broadcast policy should reflect something Commissioner Adam Silver said a couple years ago: maximum flexibility for people to watch games. Someone who cares enough about the NBA to have a “no-ads” League Pass subscription should be able to watch anything using League Pass. ‘Nuff said.

Thoughts & Observations

• Since I didn’t watch, these are all derived from the box score or play-by-play.
• Once again, the Wizards have done the improbable. They shout 54.3% from three-point range and were +30 from the three-point line and lost.
• The Rockets pummeled the Wizards on the boards despite the absence of Steven Adams. Houston had 21 offensive rebounds to Washington’s 20 defensive boards. They out-rebounded Washington 59-27. This is not unexpected considering Washington’s complete lack of size. Julian Reese, a 6-9 forward they signed on Saturday, started at center. He could manage just four rebounds in 28 minutes.
• Houston committed 20 turnovers — 1-in-5 possessions. Alperen Sengun and Kevin Durant combined for 14 turnovers (8 and 6 respectively). Outside of Reese (four turnovers), the Wizards did a pretty good job avoiding turnovers.
• Bilal Coulibaly hitting 5-7 from three-point range is a welcome development. He’s up to 30.4% from the three-point line this season. That’s something of an improvement from last season’s 28.1%.

Four Factors

Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

The four factors are measured by:

• eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
• OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
• TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
• FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)

Stats & Metrics

PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).

PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average so far this season is listed in the Four Factors table above. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%. Median so far this season is 17.7%.

ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 115, the league — on average — would produced 23.0 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -3.0.

Players are sorted by total production in the game.

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The Cleveland Cavaliers have a six-game home winning streak on the line when they host the Detroit Pistons in an NBA Central Division matchup.

Tonight’s clash features two elite defenses, and my Pistons vs. Cavaliers predictions expect a low-scoring battle at Rocket Arena. 

Read on for my NBA picks for Tuesday, March 3.

Pistons vs Cavaliers prediction

Pistons vs Cavaliers best bet: Under 227.5 (-115)

James Harden running the entire offense as the primary scorer and ball handler usually slows the game down. He brings it up, gets the Cleveland Cavaliers into sets, and makes you defend deep into the clock.

Cleveland is without Donovan Mitchell, its late-clock bailout option. Remove him, and the Cavs lose downhill attacking and easy paint touches. Against a Detroit Pistons defense allowing the fourth-fewest points per game, scoring will not come easily.

Cleveland will lean on its own elite defense to compete. These head-to-head battles usually turn into low-scoring wars, which is why the Under is the play tonight.

Pistons vs Cavaliers same-game parlay

I’ll back the Cavs to win. They must have a chip on their shoulders after blowing a nine-point lead late on Friday night in Detroit.

Having Harden and a healthy Keon Ellis should be enough to shore up the defense and secure their seventh consecutive victory at Rocket Arena.

Pistons vs Cavaliers SGP

• Under 227.5
• Cavaliers moneyline

Our "from downtown" SGP: TEASER

Dennis Schroder is starting in Mitchell’s absence and has dished at least four dimes in five straight contests.

Tobias Harris is in for a tough night against Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. He’s also failed to score more than 14 points in three of his last five games. 

Pistons vs Cavaliers SGP

• Under 227.5
• Cavaliers moneyline
• Dennis Schroder Over 3.5 assists
• Tobias Harris Under 13.5 points

Pistons vs Cavaliers odds

• Spread: Pistons -2.5 (-110) | Cavaliers +2.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Pistons -140 | Cavaliers +120
• Over/Under: Over 228 (-110) | Under 228 (-110)

Pistons vs Cavaliers betting trend to know

The last 10 meetings are 3-7-0 to the Under. Find more NBA betting trends for Pistons vs. Cavaliers.

How to watch Pistons vs Cavaliers

Pistons vs Cavaliers latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Even with Giannis returning and the Boston Celtics being without Jaylen Brown, the Milwaukee Bucks dropped their third straight game, losing in ugly fashion, 108-81. It’s the second straight game that the Celtics have held the Bucks to 81 or fewer points, after Milwaukee scored 79 on February 1 in Boston. Read our full summary of the game here and catch a six-minute audio recap on the Bucks+ podcast, Bucks In Six Minutes, below.

Player Grades

Giannis Antetokounmpo

25 minutes, 19 points, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 turnovers, 1 block, 7/18 FG, 2/5 FT, -8

Despite some rust, there were some vintage Giannis moments, displaying his usual aggressiveness in the paint. Maybe just leave the mid-range jumpers off the shot diet moving forward. 

Grade: B-

Kevin Porter Jr.

31 minutes, 8 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 3 turnovers, 3/6 FG, -8

The Celtics did a great job of forcing KPJ into contested looks. After starting the game 3/4 from the field, with a layup and dunk in there, Boston made him take just two shots for the rest of the game.  

Grade: C-

AJ Green

18 minutes, 0 points, 4 rebounds, 0/3 3P, -4

The seven games since the All-Star break haven’t been very good for Green. He’s averaging a paltry 6.6 PPG (well below his season average of 10.3) and is shooting 31.8% from three-point territory. Tonight was another example of the opposition going out of its way to prevent Green from shooting, with Sam Hauser even swatting one away. 

Grade: F

Ousmane Dieng

30 minutes, 13 points, 2 assists, 1 rebound, 5/10 FG, 3/7 3P, -8

Dieng’s second start in a Bucks uniform was a bit of a shock, but there were things to like. He displayed an ability to play off of Giannis and convert from deep, while also not letting up on defence; that’s the 3-and-D archetype he has to fit into moving forward. That said, Dieng had a few ill-timed shots and didn’t break the paint all that often. 

Grade: B-

Myles Turner

18 minutes, 5 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 1/6 3P, -6

It was another rough outing for Turner. He couldn’t buy a three in the first quarter, and just looked overmatched when the Celtics went small. Many of the Bucks’ best runs came when he was off. 

Grade: D-

Ryan Rollins

24 minutes, 5 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, 2/11 FG, 1/5 3P, -23

There might have been a reason why Doc chose Rollins as the one who got benched in favor of Dieng. He looked dreadful on both ends, and Doc was visibly upset with some of the shots he was taking. After averaging 20+ PPG in February, he’s off to a bad start in March.

Grade: F

Bobby Portis

23 minutes, 12 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist, 4/7 FG, 3/4 3P, -21

Bobby’s defensive issues reared their ugly head, and he couldn’t out-rebound some of the smaller Boston players. Portis continued to space the floor, but man, the other side of the ball was a train wreck.

Grade: C-

Cam Thomas

11 minutes, 2 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, 0/3 FG, 2/2 FT, -18

The Bucks opted not to convert Pete Nance for this? Doc admitted that if Thomas is not scoring, he’s not really going to be out there—last night was proof of that. 

Grade: F

Jericho Sims

22 minutes, 3 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 1/1 FG, 1/2 FT, -13

The only Buck besides Giannis who seemed to have a pulse on the glass. Sims looked solid on both ends of the floor and has really played well these last few weeks after a poor stretch before that. 

Grade: C+

Pete Nance

15 minutes, 6 points, 3 rebounds, 2/2 3P, -4

Welcome back to the rotation, Pete! He was a good floor spacer and showed why he should be in the mix moving forward. The Bucks need all the shooting and length they can get. 

Grade: B

Gary Harris

13 minutes, 6 points, 1 rebound, 2/4 3P, -15

With Kyle Kuzma inexplicably out of the rotation, Doc opened the door to Harris. That door should be shut moving forward. Before garbage time, Harris played 7:52 and was a -18. Need I say more?

Grade: F

Doc Rivers

Doc had a rough night. I thought the idea to start Dieng was solid, but the rest of the rotations just made no sense (Kuzma’s DNP-CD being the best example of that). Doc also brought up the offense getting stagnant again. Listen, I know it’s up to the players to execute the plays, but the coach is responsible for creating them. Van talked about Doc’s glaring flaws in his article, and everything he wrote rang true last night.

Grade: D

Garbage Time: Andre Jackson Jr., Gary Trent Jr., Thanasis Antetokounmpo

DNP-CD: Kyle Kuzma

Inactive: Alex Antetokounmpo, Taurean Prince, Cormac Ryan

Bonus Bucks Bits

• After his first game back, Giannis talked at length about how this rehab stint was different for him and how he had to approach mentally as well as physically. He also said he doesn’t feel like he’s playing at a deficit anymore:

“I have a lot of smart people around me who tell me the truth, tell me what to do. At the end of the day, I’ve been in this position in life by fighting through things, and I just listen to my gut, and I fight through adversity. Sometimes that’s smart, sometimes that’s not smart. Things I was able to do in the past, maybe I can’t do no more. I just got to be smarter, I’m not old, I’m older for sure. I’m not 24 years old no more. I’ve been dealing with a lot of soft tissue injuries, and if you’re not able to take care of them, they can linger, and I think that’s what happened this year. I feel like I’ve been playing the whole year at a deficit, but now this is the first time where I have a little bit in my tank, that I’m not risking anything, so I’m happy that I’m here.”

• Doc had mentioned pre-game that now that Giannis is back, they have to figure out what pieces to put out there when he’s not on the floor. It’s safe to say that wasn’t achieved; after Giannis subbed out with 6:13 left in the first quarter, the Bucks went from down two to down 17 by the time he checked back in. They did get better in the non-Giannis stretches throughout the rest of the game, but were starting so far behind the eight ball that it didn’t even matter. 
• Once again, the Bucks lost the numbers battle. They were outshot by 21 (95-74), lost the turnover battle (16-10), and were out-rebounded 63-47. On the offensive glass alone, it was a 19-9 Celtics advantage. 
• Bobby Portis was asked about why the Bucks have turned so sharply from a team that won eight out of 10 to a team that’s lost the last three games by a combined 79 points: 

“We’re just playing better teams, kind of fool’s gold, for real. We won eight out of 10, playing against teams that are trying to lose. (Now we’re) playing for teams that are jockeying for position (in the playoffs). We used to be in that position too, jockeying for position, you got games on your schedule you can’t lose. Guys are circling us as the can’t lose team, so they’re coming in trying to win that game. Credit the other team for locking in and getting a dub.” 

• Doc said the decision not to play Kuzma was a coach’s decision. Per Keith Smith, this is the first DNP-CD of Kuzma’s nine-year career.

Up Next

The Bucks will get their first look at Jonathan Kuminga in his new threads, as the Atlanta Hawks make their way to Fiserv Forum on Wednesday night for an 8:30 p.m. Central tip-off. Catch the game on ESPN and FanDuel Sports Network Wisconsin. 

Less than two years after a historically awful 14-68 season, the Pistons are now the #1 team in the league.

It’s undoubtedly one of the greatest turnarounds in league history, but many are still questioning their place among basketball’s elite. Now that we have 60 games worth of sample, there should be more than enough data to see just how good Detroit is, and where they place in the East’s hierarchy.

Let’s start with their fundamentals.

The Pistons’ style has remained the same

Detroit hasn’t changed their style: they’ve simply improved on their strengths and limited their weaknesses. The Pistons are attempting 36.6% of their shots around the rim this season (3rd league-wide) compared to 33.2% last year, and have improved their efficiency from 65.9% to 66.7% while doing so. On top of that, Detroit has decreased the number of threes they take. The Pistons’ poor spacing has resulted in opponents benefiting when they bomb from deep, so they’ve cut down their 3-point frequency from 36.1% to 31.9%. Given that Detroit’s making just 34.9% of their attempts (22nd league-wide), I’d consider that a win.

With the Pistons being a medi0cre halfcourt offense, they’ve also prioritized running more, as their transition frequency has increased from 17% to 18% (3rd league-wide). That may not sound like a big change, but it directly impacts the number of half-court possessions they have too, which has decreased from 76.9% to just 75.5% this year (lowest league-wide). These subtle but important changes add up quickly, and it’s helped Detroit sport a top-10 offensive rating (117.6) when it was just 16th last season (115.1).

Duren’s leap has been Detroit’s most important development

Of course, the biggest improvements have come from their stars. Jalen Duren, specifically, has taken an All-Star leap that has given Detroit a second cornerstone piece to build around. Duren has increased his scoring from 11.8 to 18.5 points per game while maintaining good efficiency, although his true shooting has dropped from 70.3% to 66.9%. Still, that’s a worthwhile tradeoff given his usage has gone from 16.1% to 20.8%, which is in the 84th percentile amongst all big men. Importantly, Duren’s isolations have more than doubled from last season and he’s averaging 1.08 points on such plays, which is also in the 84th percentile in the entire league. These plays only occur on 9% of possessions (outside the top 80 league-wide), but it does give Detroit a last-ditch option if needed, while also taking some offensive burden off Cade.

Duren’s self-created shots mostly come in the mid-range, an area where he is shooting a respectable 49%. He’s also taking 31% of his shots from that area, which is a 13% increase from last season.

Defensively, Duren’s rim protection has improved drastically. Opponents have gone from shooting 62.9% within 6 feet of the basket last season to just 58.8% this year, with the latter number being 5.3% lower than the opponents’ expected field goal percentage. It’s not elite by any means, but Duren has now turned himself into a good defensive centre when he was a liability in previous seasons.

The biggest defensive improvement Duren’s made is his positioning and decision-making. He’s averaging the lowest foul rate of his career and now puts himself in the right spots to contest shots. In the first clip below, Duren goes straight up to avoid contact and reacts mid-air to switch arms and block the layup attempt. Then, in the second clip, he helps cover for the driver at the last second, so that McCain can’t easily dump it down to Drummond.

Defense has been Detroit’s calling card

The Pistons are currently the #2 ranked defense with a 109.1 DRTG that’s “only” 1.7 points behind OKC. Considering how far ahead the Thunder’s defense was to start the season, it’s impressive that Detroit is within striking distance, and the difference between the Pistons’ 109.1 DRTG and the third-ranked Spurs at 111.4 is the difference between San Antonio and 9th-ranked Phoenix (113.7).

In fact, Detroit has had the best defense league-wide since late November, with rim protection being their biggest strength. Opponents are only shooting 62.9% overall within 4 feet of the basket, which is the fourth-lowest mark in the league. More importantly, the Pistons are also allowing just 27.7% of opponent shots to come in that area, which is the third-fewest mark league-wide too. The combination of both limiting the quantity and quality of attempts in the most dangerous offensive area gives Detroit an extremely high defensive floor, but they’ve also been somewhat lucky as well.

Due to their emphasis on rim protection, the Pistons are conceding 39.1% of all opponent shots to come from three — the 11th highest mark in the league. Fortunately, teams have made just 34.8% of those attempts, which is the fourth-lowest mark this season. Given that the league average three-point percent is 36.1%, Detroit might be due for some regression, but their fundamentals are so sound that their floor is still a top 3 defense, with OKC being the only team that’s definitively better.

The same can’t be said about their offense…

It’s a different story on offense. The Pistons have a 120.1 ORTG with Cade playing — equivalent to Boston’s 3rd ranked offense — but that drops to an abysmal 112.1 when he’s off, which would rank 26th league-wide. Even with Duren’s improvements, Detroit lacks a reliable second creator behind Cade, although they’re still a +3.0 in those minutes due to their elite defense.

Nothing about their playstyle changes when Cade sits. Detroit has just become so reliant on him that they can’t generate efficient shots when he’s not at the helm, and it also takes away one of their most reliable offensive sets: the pick and roll between Cade and Duren. Cade is second only to Luka in the entire league in P&Rs run per game, scoring a robust 0.95 points on such possessions (73rd percentile). Duren benefits even more, as he also ranks in the top 20 in rolls per game while scoring an absurd 1.38 points on those plays (86th percentile). Without their offensive fulcrum, the Pistons are simply lost on offense. They don’t have a secondary ballhandler good enough to be a caricature of Cade, and they also lack a deadeye shooter to run motion sets for.

Still, I would consider Detroit to be the clear favorite to come out of a flawed East, mainly due to how they match up with the other contenders. The Pistons have beaten the Knicks by 84 points in three games this season and also possess the Cavs’ achilles heal: size and physicality in the frontcourt. Boston is the real wildcard amongst the East’s elite given Tatum’s potential return, but until that happens, Detroit is the safest bet.

If the Pistons do make it to the finals, though, I can’t see them beating whichever juggernaut comes out of the West. I believe that all three of OKC, Denver, and San Antonio are better than Detroit, and the West team should be clear favorites in the finals regardless of the matchup. Even so, this season will go down as a resounding success for the Pistons, and they have enough assets to acquire help in the offseason to come back even better next year.

This week, please check out Marilyn’srecap of the Spurs’ past week! San Antonio could legitimately win the title this year, and the league is coming to grips with that.

Thanks for reading!

All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.

The Detroit Pistons are entering the final stretch of their schedule, and while their position as the No. 1 team in the Eastern Conference has never been more secure, the doubts about the playoff viability of this team only seem to be growing. It is rare that you see any article about the Pistons, about contenders, or about threats, and you don’t see folks handwaving Detroit’s chances in the playoffs. Whether that is a first-round upset at the hands of a new NBA darling (and legitimately dangerous team), the Hornets, a second-round upset via the new-look Cavs, or an Eastern Conference Finals loss at the hands of the big-market Celtics or Knicks. Let’s sort through the noise and dive into the latest trends.

1. Shooting

How many teams in today’s NBA could start a game 0-for-15 from three and still win comfortably? Maybe one or two, and it includes Detroit.

The Pistons are succeeding in a way many believed was extinct. While the league loads up on shooting and spacing, Detroit continues to score in gritty, physical ways — and more importantly, prevent points on the other end.

The tradeoff, of course, is perimeter shooting. Detroit’s identity is built around the rim, and that comes at a cost. After hovering around league average for much of the season, the Pistons now rank 26th in three-point percentage. Over their last four games, they’ve gone 32-for-126 (25.4%) from deep — and still won three of four.

That’s impressive. It’s also not sustainable through multiple playoff series.

As postseason defenses tighten and points at the rim become harder to manufacture, the question becomes unavoidable: Does Detroit have enough shot-making to survive when it matters most?

2. Is Duren a true No. 2?

Championship teams almost always share one trait: at least two All-Star–level players. Detroit has dominated the Eastern Conference largely with a collective approach behind Cunningham, but Jalen Duren is beginning to test whether that hierarchy needs redefining.

Over the past stretch, Duren has shown real flashes of being a legitimate second option. Before last night’s win in Orlando, he led the Pistons in scoring for four straight games, averaging 28.3 points, all alongside Cunningham. That’s not empty production — that’s shared offensive responsibility.

We saw how defenses sold out to stop Cunningham in last year’s playoffs, and he’ll be an even bigger focal point this time around. If Duren can consistently punish that attention — not just as a finisher, but as someone who can initiate offense — it changes Detroit’s ceiling.

The challenge? There aren’t many bigs who can truly function as a No. 2 without any perimeter game. Whether Duren can bend that rule may end up being one of the defining questions of Detroit’s postseason run.

3. Are the Spurs Detroit’s ultimate kryptonite?

This version of the East’s No. 1 seed is dominant — but not matchup-proof. And no team has exposed Detroit’s weaknesses quite like the San Antonio Spurs.

In last Monday’s 114–103 loss at Little Caesars Arena, San Antonio highlighted everything Detroit struggles with. The Pistons controlled the first half by hitting outside shots and capitalizing when Victor Wembanyama was off the floor. The second half told a different story.

Detroit’s offense stalled, rhythm disappeared, and Cade Cunningham was pushed into becoming a perimeter shooter — not where he’s most comfortable or effective. The Pistons went 7-for-36 from three, while San Antonio knocked down 18-of-40, a gap that decided the game.

Wembanyama disrupts Detroit’s rim-based identity in a way few players can. In a hypothetical Finals matchup, his presence alone would fundamentally alter how the Pistons play. It would be electric for the league — but from Detroit’s perspective, it’s probably a matchup they’d rather avoid.

We won’t have to wait long to see a rematch as Detroit travels to San Antonio on Thursday – this time they’ll have reinforcements in Isaiah Stewart.

The Philadelphia 76ers are coming off a tough loss to the Boston Celtics. Now, they’ll turn their attention to a back-to-back in Philly, starting with the San Antonio Spurs and ending with the Utah Jazz.

But first, let’s focus on the Spurs, who have put together a strong season so far. When breaking down San Antonio, you have to start with the 7-foot-5 elephant in the room: Victor Wembanyama. The 2023 first overall pick has lived up to the hype as a generational talent. This season, he’s averaging 23.7 points, 11.2 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1 steal and 2.9 blocks per game while shooting 50.1 percent from the floor and 34.1 percent from three. Even with missed time, Wemby has been a game-changer on both ends and will give the Sixers plenty of headaches as they prepare for this matchup.

Beyond their franchise star, the Spurs have a lot of depth. Their backcourt features All-Star De’Aaron Fox, rising star Stephon Castle and rookie Dylan Harper, who was selected just ahead of VJ Edgecombe in last year’s draft. Fox is already a well-established, strong starting-caliber player. Castle, meanwhile, has developed into a legitimate two-way guard, averaging 16.5 points, 4.9 rebounds and 6.8 assists this season. Harper has seen limited opportunities behind the talented backcourt, but he’s put up 11 points, 3.3 rebounds and 3.8 assists over 49 games while shooting 47.3 percent from the field and 25.4 percent from three.

It remains to be seen how that backcourt will shake out long-term, but for now, the trio offers a solid mix of playmaking, length and two-way ability. Beyond Wemby and the guard group, the Spurs have other intriguing pieces. Former Sixer Julian Champagnie has emerged as a quality rotation player and floor spacer, Devin Vassell has quietly had another solid season, and several veterans have contributed in meaningful ways, including Luke Kornet, Keldon Johnson — who is quietly making a push for Sixth Man of the Year — and Harrison Barnes.

Many around the league consider the Spurs a serious threat, capable of challenging heavy favorites like the Oklahoma City Thunder or Denver Nuggets. And for good reason. They have a generational two-way player, an abundance of playmaking options, and legitimate depth to complement their stars. San Antonio ranks seventh in offense and third in defense, which is a strong indicator that this team has genuine contending potential.

Similar to the Celtics game, this one will likely come down to Tyrese Maxey and Edgecombe, fair or not. The Sixers will again be without Joel Embiid and Paul George, putting even more pressure on the backcourt to carry the offense. In normal circumstances, the VJ Maxx duo has done enough to win most games over the past few games, but nothing about this matchup is normal. They will need support from players such as Kelly Oubre Jr. to generate enough offense to keep pace with the Spurs.

That will be far from easy. Wemby will be patrolling the rim as usual. Maxey did have one of his best games last season against Wemby and the Spurs, so it is possible he could replicate that success. Still, this will be a grueling matchup, as the Spurs have the length and athleticism to disrupt the Sixers’ backcourt and clog passing lanes. For Philadelphia to have a chance, Maxey and Edgecombe will need not just to be good, but truly great.

Outside of offensive production, a key area to watch in this matchup will be shooting and the big-man battle. With Embiid and George out, the roster simply lacks high-volume, consistent perimeter shooting. The Spurs will likely challenge players outside of the backcourt to take and make perimeter shots while packing the paint.

Surprisingly, this is the first matchup of the season between the Sixers and Spurs. It’ll also mark the first meeting between Edgecombe and Harper, two of the top three picks in this draft. Edgecombe has been playing strong basketball lately, averaging 20.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.5 steals per game while shooting 47.9 percent from the field and 43.9 percent from three since the All-Star break.

Oh, and this game comes with some extra flair beyond the usual matchup. NBC is re-creating a 1995–96-style broadcast as part of a “Throwback Tuesday” telecast, complete with retro announcers, old-school graphics, classic replays, a traditional score bug, a full pregame show, and even grainy flashbacks to capture the era’s feel. The coverage begins at 7 p.m. EST, an hour before tip-off, and will be hosted by Hannah Storm alongside Isiah Thomas and P. J. Carlesimo.

At tip-off, the broadcast team will feature Bob Costas on the call with Mike Fratello and, to the chagrin of OG Sixers fans, Doug Collins, while Jim Gray handles sideline reports. For anyone who appreciates a little nostalgia, this should be a fun one to tune into.

Key names on the injury report include Embiid, George and Johni Broome, all listed as out. For San Antonio, the key name is Mason Plumlee, who is out for conditioning reasons.

This won’t be an easy game by any means, but a win here would effectively split two tough back-to-back matchups and keep the Sixers out of play-in territory. Let’s see if the shorthanded Sixers can do the improbable and steal a victory from one of the league’s best teams.

Game Details

When: Tuesday, March 3rd, 8:00 p.m. ET
Where: Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, PA
Watch: NBC Sports, Peacock
Radio: 97.5 The Fanatic
Follow: @LibertyBallers

Four wild stats highlighting Hugo Gonzalez's early success with Celtics originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

Rookie Hugo Gonzalez produced the loudest night of his first NBA season Monday while stacking up 18 points, 16 rebounds, three steals, two blocks and an assist over 35 minutes, 20 seconds of floor time for the shorthanded Celtics in their 108-81 triumph over the Milwaukee Bucks.

Gonzalez has only scratched the surface on his offensive potential, generating most of his offense off cuts and putbacks. But the numbers don’t lie: He’s impacting winning in his age-19 season and hardly looks like a first-year player on the defensive side of the ball. 

Let’s crunch some of our favorite Hugo numbers from this season: 

Net rating MVP

The Celtics are outscoring opponents by 17.1 points per 100 possessions with Gonzalez on the floor this season. That isn’t just the best mark on the team, it’s the best of any player in the entire NBA with at least 45 games played.

Check Boston’s on/off splits, and Gonzalez’s impact is even crazier.

The Celtics post a team-best offensive rating of 120.3 with Gonzalez on the floor, and it drops to 118 without him. Boston has a defensive rating of 103.1 with Gonzalez — also best among its regulars — and that mark spikes 10.2 points to 113.3 without him.

The Celtics are 12.3 points per 100 possessions better with Gonzalez on the floor, second-best on the team behind only Derrick White (+12.9).

Rookie leader

Gonzalez owns the best raw plus/minus among all rookies, with the Celtics outscoring opponents by 283 total points in his 864.2 minutes of floor time. That’s 80 points better than the next-closest rookie (San Antonio’s Dylan Harper, +203). Charlotte’s Kon Knueppel (+188) is the only other rookie in the neighborhood. Fourth place is Miami’s Myron Gardner at +55. 

After finishing +27 against the Bucks, Gonzalez is lingering near the top of the all-time rookie leaderboard of best plus/minus per game in a season.

Here’s the top of that chart, from our stats guru Dick Lipe: 

A fun exercise: If there was a 2025 re-draft today, how much higher than 28 would Gonzalez be selected?

He may not come off the board before Cooper Flagg, Harper, Knueppel, and Philadelphia’s VJ Edgecombe. But we could make a strong case that he might get snagged anywhere from spots 5-10.

And if Gonzalez wasn’t playing for a contender overflowing with young wing depth, he’d be steamrolling toward an All-Rookie slot with an inflated stat line in bigger minutes.

The Hugo Effect

Seven of Boston’s top eight two-man lineups with at least 200 minutes of floor time feature Gonzalez.

It doesn’t seem to matter who he’s paired with — the Celtics dominate those minutes.

Relentless defensive energy

Gonzalez’s biggest impact, maybe even beyond his tenacious defense, might be his rebounding ability on both ends of the floor.

For the season, Gonzalez is grabbing 15.3 percent of available defensive rebounds when he’s on the court, which ranks in the 94th percentile among all NBA wings. He collects 6.8 percent of his own team’s missed shots, which ranks in the 92nd percentile among wings.

Opponents are shooting 5.3 percent below expected output when Gonzalez is the primary defender. That ranks in the 97th percentile for his position. Gonzalez is elite at drawing offensive fouls, as Giannis Antetokounmpo learned on Monday night, and Gonzalez’s 0.9 offensive fouls drawn per 100 plays ranks in the 92nd percentile. 

Somehow Gonzalez gets even better closer to the basket. Opponents are shooting 10.7 percent below expected against him at the rim (98th percentile among wings).

Even as he gets a rookie whistle, Gonzalez is putting up absurd defensive numbers for his 19-year-old season.

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The San Antonio Spurs’ 11-game win streak was snapped on Sunday, and the Western Conference heavyweights will look to start a new one when they visit the Philadelphia 76ers.

Philly’s frontcourt is vulnerable, and my Spurs vs. 76ers predictions expect the big man duo of Luke Kornet and Victor Wembanyama to lead San Antonio to a comfortable win behind big performances.

Here are my best free NBA picks for this cross-conference showdown on Tuesday, March 3.

Spurs vs 76ers prediction

Spurs vs 76ers best bet: Luke Kornet Over 11.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120)

The Philadelphia 76ers’ interior defense will be exposed again with Joel Embiid on the sidelines.

The team’s defensive rating without Embiid is a dreadful 117.1 this season. Philly surrendered 114 points, 59 total rebounds, and a whopping 19 offensive boards in Sunday’s blowout loss to the Celtics.

Luke Kornet is averaging a career-best 15.5 points + rebounds + assists, going for 12+ in 38 of 50 games, including six of his last nine. This line is wildly mispriced, and Kornet could see additional run if the San Antonio Spurs run away with the game in this favorable matchup.

Spurs vs 76ers same-game parlay

The 76ers are just 14-17 against the spread at home, while the Spurs are 17-14-1 ATS on the road. The Spurs' 11-game win streak was snapped in a rare blowout loss on Sunday, and I expect San Antonio to come out with a vengeance and win comfortably.

Philadelphia's offense may struggle to score against San Antonio's stingy defense, especially with Embiid and Paul George sidelined.

Spurs vs 76ers SGP

• Luke Kornet Over 11.5 points + rebounds + assists
• Spurs -8
• Under 231.5

Our "from downtown" SGP: Wemby's Super-Sized Combo

Wembanyama's combo line would have been the best bet had it not been for the advantageous pricing on Kornet's line. Wemby will benefit from Embiid's absence, and he's already gone for 40+ PRA in two of his last four games overall and in each of his last two in Philadelphia.

Spurs vs 76ers SGP

• Luke Kornet Over 11.5 points + rebounds + assists
• Spurs -8
• Under 231.5
• Victor Wembanyama Over 39.5 points + rebounds + assists

Spurs vs 76ers odds

• Spread: Spurs -8 (-110) | 76ers +8 (-110)
• Moneyline: Spurs -315 | 76ers +255
• Over/Under: Over 232 (-110) | Under 232 (-110)

Spurs vs 76ers betting trend to know

The San Antonio Spurs have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 35 games (+14.00 Units / 36% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. 76ers.

How to watch Spurs vs 76ers

Spurs vs 76ers latest injuries

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