It’s that time of year again for us: time to update things just as we’ve done for 19 straight seasons. We aren’t going to count them up, but this is around our 4ooth report through thick (mostly) and thin. Like many previous ones, it will be numbers-heavy. Deal with it.
This year, off-course, is different. It is, as Jordi Fernandez said during the season, “this is the summer of our lives.” Ever since the Nets decided to go into a full rebuild sometime back in the early months of 2024, everything pointed to this summer — and to be more specific the 2026 Draft Lottery and the 2026 NBA Draft. They will take place May 10 in Chicago and June 23-24 in Brooklyn.
So how things going?
At the moment, you’d have to say reasonably well. The franchise seems prepared although as we know, luck plays a huge role. The moment could pass, could change, etc. but so far, so good.
The first piece of the off-season is the Lottery, the NBA’s annual house of cards. The Nets’ plan was always to secure a top three seed primarily by depriving Jordi Fernandez of talent, including fielding the youngest NBA roster in 20 years including a unique draft class. That mission was accomplished the last week of the season after some brutal, brutal losses.
Then comes the Draft itself. Largely because of the tank and what the Nets did on June 25, 2024 with the Mikal Bridges trade and the exchange of picks with the Houston Rockets, Sean Marks & co. have more draft capital than anyone else. To reiterate: that’s 13 firsts — nine of them tradeable; 19 seconds — all of them tradeable; plus two first round pick swaps. In each case, it’s the biggest number in the NBA. It’s not quite unprecedented. If memory serves us, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Sam Presti once had 36. (He still has 27.)
At the moment again, Brooklyn holds three picks in the 2026 Draft, the third best odds at getting one of the top four picks including the overall No. 1 as well as the No. 33 (their own) and the No. 43 (the Los Angeles Clippers’ second) in the second round. In its Draft Power Rankings, Tankathon puts the Nets combination at No. 3 behind the Memphis Grizzlies and Chicago Bulls. Moving up or down on May 10 will change that. So will any trades. As we’ve noted many times, Marks has made trades both big and small within 48 hours of the draft nine times in his 10-year tenure.
There are other positive numbers of course beyond the draft: they have third biggest cache of cap space, somewhere between $30 and $50 million depending on what they do with various team options and contract renewals … and how high they finish in the Lottery. (The difference between the overall No. 1 and worst-case-scenario seventh pick is nearly $7 million in 2026-27 and $30+ million over the course of the four-year rookie deal.)
They also have an ownership with a record of paying the luxury tax when needed. Bobby Marks estimated that Joe Tsai has paid out $323 million in luxury taxes between when he bought into the Nets in 2017-18 as a minority owner and the last time the Nets paid any tax in 2022-23.
One underappreciated aspect of the rebuild is that by keeping their payroll low the past three seasons, the Nets will avoid the dreaded repeater tax over at least next four years. That tax goes into effect when a team goes over the tax threshold three out of four years and includes multipliers that restrict teams in various ways. It helps when you have seven players on rookie deals as Brooklyn likely will next year with Noah Clowney, the Flatbush 5 and their lottery pick making somewhere between $36 million and $42.8 million, again depending on how the little plastic balls fall. If you want to have “sustainable success,” one of the team’s mantras, avoiding the luxury tax and aprons will be key.
The Nets do not operate in a vacuum of course. What the other front offices do matters a lot and a little more than midway through the first round of the playoffs, there are other encouraging signs for Nets fans, particular regarding the fate of three teams the Nets have done business with.
—The Knicks fate is one the most closely tied to the Nets. With three first rounders and a first round swap still owed, it’s given. The firsts are in 2027, 2029 and 2031, the swap, also unprotected, is in 2028. If the Knicks falter, it could be a windfall for the Nets. As the moment, the Knicks and the Hawks are tied 2-2 in the best of seven series and worse for Knicks fans, the guy who they received in that monumental trade is having a terrible series.
The question is what if the New Yorkers fail to meet James Dolan’s high standards — him standing, champagne-drenched and teary-eyed with the Larry O’Brien Trophy clutched in his hands. What will be the next step at the Garden? The Knicks have the fourth oldest roster in the NBA and as a result of the Mikal Bridge and Karl-Anthony Towns trades bereft of first round picks. While the Nets have 13 firsts over the next seven years, the Knicks have four. They also have big contract extensions coming due. Bridges’ four-year, $150 million deal kicks in next season and they’re only $370,000 shy of the second apron. The Nets are $56.5 million under. Other decisions are closing in as well, like Mitchell Robinson’s unrestricted free agency this summer. Be interesting to watch.
—The Rockets too could be at an intersection. The Nets may have to swap firsts in 2027 with the Rockets as a result of the pick exchange that permitted Brooklyn to reclaim their firsts in 2025 and 2026. But they’re down 3-1 to the Lakers even with Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves on the bench. Moreover, Kevin Durant is hurting and there’s word their locker room isn’t a model of probity. It’s long been assumed that the swap will greatly favor Houston who could wind up with a top Nets pick, aka Jayson Tatum in 2017. But suppose the Rockets decide to part ways with KD and try a modified rebuild, hurting their draft stock in 2027. Better to swap a No. 15 pick for a No. 10 than having to swap a No. 10 for a No. 3, even in a mediocre draft. Another interesting watch.
—Then, there’s the Nuggets who were down 3-1 to the Timberwolves Monday night and not looking like the contender everyone thought they would be. They have big decisions as well, but the urgency is less and they do have Nikola Jokic who is a three-time MVP and an O’Brien trophy winner of recent vintage. But should they team head to Cancun early, ownership and the front office will have to sit down and wonder what went wrong and what’s next.
No, they won’t trade Jokic, but they need to figure out how to get younger and that includes keeping restricted free agent Payton Watson whose breakout year had made him one of the top targets this. He’s also close to MPJ. For Denver to keep him and still find of modicum of flexibility, they may have to find a way to dump Johnson, who is an expiring now at age 30. It won’t be easy. He’s owed $23 million and hasn’t played in 60 games in any of the past four seasons. If another team wanted him, they might ask for a first in return, but at the moment, Denver doesn’t have. They traded their last first along with Porter to the Nets.
Finally, there was word today that Adam Silver likes an anti-tanking plan that would essentially flatten the odds making it possible for even playoff teams to have a chance at winning the overall No. 1 in the future. Sam Amick of The Athletic wrote about the new proposal and its implications.
[A]ccording to league and team sources, a heavy front-runner has emerged among the three proposed solutions to curb the widespread tanking problem that put such a stain on this season: Option No. 1, in which 18 teams would be part of the draft lottery (rather than the current 14) and the bottom 10 teams would all have an 8 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick. The remaining odds — 20 percent in all — would be divided among the remaining eight teams. In the current system, the bottom three teams all have a 14 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick and the odds decline from there.
Nothing is final, but the league will be talking to GMs on Tuesday about the plan. Silver has said reforming the lottery is a top priority. With so many traded first rounders and swaps, the Nets should get a small advantage if, as Amick reported, the odds are flattened. For example, if in 2027, the Knicks made it to the playoffs but with the 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th worst record, under the old rules the Nets would not be in the lottery, but under the revised rules laid out by Amick, they would have a shot, albeit a small one, at moving up. The more picks, the more chances, the more opportunities to move up.
Amick noted that while this option has legs, it could be modified before the NBA Board of Governors votes on tanking reform next month. At least 23 of the 30 governors — aka the owners — must approve the final package. Silver has said that he expects reforms to be implemented by next season, telling GMs earlier this year, “You should assume for next season your only incentive will be to win games,”
Steve Hetzel getting offers?
The Athletic also reported Monday that Nets assistant coach Steve Hetzel, Jordi Fernandez’s No. 2 and long time friend, has been interviewed by the New Orleans Hornets for their open head coaching position.
Wait? Didn’t Hetzel just get extended by the Nets along with Fernandez and his eight fellow assistants coach?!? Indeed he did but the extension doesn’t prohibit him or other assistants to be interviewed for better jobs elsewhere. It is standard operating procedure for teams to permit their assistants to talk to other teams about head coaching openings elsewhere. Indeed, in 2024, the Nets interviewed Fernandez, then a Kings assistant, for the top job in Brooklyn with Sacramento’s permission.
How legitimate of a candidate is Hetzel? Apparently, he is a serious one. Interestingly, so is another candidate with a Nets background. Sean Sweeney was an assistant under Jason Kidd in Brooklyn, then followed him to Dallas before joining up with the San Antonio Spurs.
Expect the Pelicans as well as other teams with openings to make a decision in advance on the June 23-24 NBA Draft.
Draft Sleeper of the Week: A.J. Dybantsa
How long have we been doing this? Well, our first Draft Sleeper was DeAndre Jordan of Texas A&M back in 2008. The New Jersey Nets did not select him but as we all know and some of us ultimately lament he wound up with the Brooklyn Nets in 2019 as part of the Clean Sweep. Yes, he’s still playing, last season for the Pelicans.
Now, though, the stakes are a lot higher as noted above. Rather than being pessimistic about the Lottery, let’s go for broke and project the Nets winning the Draft Lottery! Huzzah!
So if the aerodynamics of ping pong balls work to our advantage, who would the Nets take with the overall No. 1 in a draft described as both deep and generational??
Beat us! And not just us. There was one piece of intel that the Nets like Kingston Flemings, the 6’5” Houston point guard, burt that’s it. We believe the Nets have started workouts and interviews of prospects. Based on their current picks at Nos. 3, 33 and 43 and what’s known about their history, you’d expect that 60 or more candidates will be brought in and not just for the Draft but for slots on the Summer League, training camp and the Long Island Nets invites. It all goes into the scouting database.
A.J. Dybantsa, the 19-year-old, 6’9” BYU wing, has been seen as one of three franchise changers in the 2026 Draft for more than a year. His skills and NBA fit were being acknowledged in high school! Early this season, the Boston area native, was seen as the second or third of the franchise-changers but a combination of his game and questions about Kansas guard Darryn Peterson’s personality and injuries pushed Dybantsa into the consensus No. 1 spot among draftniks, bypassing Cam Boozer of Duke.
What makes him the top pick? If you go just by the numbers, you can see he had a sensational year for Brigham Young, averaging 25.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.1 steals in 35 (out of 4o) minutes. He shot 51/33/77 despite being double-teamed a lot of the time.
But he also has the personality indeed a wow factor that as George Steinbrenner once famously said can put “fannies in the seats.“
Some highlights of his season:
They don’t compare him to a Tracey McGrady for nothing.
“I guess you’d rather fail with [AJ] and his upside, than not,” a Western Conference general manager told ESPN this month. “And I know Peterson has upside, maybe Boozer’s upside is a little bit less. … I just think that [AJ], because he’s 6’9” and he could be like 6’10”, 230 [pounds] by the time he’s 25 years old, he could just be a monster. I think you’ve just got to go down swinging with him if you go down.”
Dybantsa also won kudos this week for his good-bye message to the Cougars.
“When I committed to BYU, I knew I was signing up for something bigger than basketball,” he wrote. “A lot of people questioned the decision. For me, the choice was simple. I wanted to go to the place that would best develop me as a basketball player and as a person. BYU was the program that gave me the clearest path to both.”
The sincerity exhibited in the letter belied one concern raised about Dybantsa: his maturity. Could he lead your franchise?
“Dybantsa not the guy you want to set your culture. They’d be better off with lesser talent,” said one league decision-maker (not with the Nets) who did not elaborate
Of course, he is only 19.
Final Note
Congratulations to Mr. Whammy, aka Bruce Reznick. He will join Joe Tsai, Sean Marks and other Nets front office staff at the NBA Draft Lottery. Tsai announced the invitation to Whammy on Monday night in a tweet.
And thanks to Joe Tsai not only for inviting the 90-year-old superfan and Hall of Fame member to the Lottery but for recognizing what Whammy and his late wife, Judy, have done for the Nets going back to New Jersey days. Good all around.
We’ll have more in the morning!
