
Now that the Dallas Mavericks’ roster is 99% set with a little more than a month before the start of the 2026-27 season, one thing that has been on my mind is who is going to be in the rotation on day one. While there are some familiar faces, a third of the roster is brand new.
Returning Players: Kyrie Irving, Cooper Flagg, PJ Washington, Daniel Gafford, Caleb Martin, Max Christie, Dereck Lively II, Naji Marshall, Moussa Cisse
New Players: Tarik Biberovic, Sergio De Larrea, Morez Johnson Jr., Santi Aldama, Marcus Sasser, Zaccharie Risacher
Six new faces may not seem like much turnover, but when you consider that Lively and Irving were non-factors last year and Cisse was on a two-way contract, over half of the playable roster is new this season.
On top of that, the Mavericks have a brand new front office and coaching staff. I don’t know much about Dusty May yet. I do know that he is considered an analytics darling and has shown a willingness to adapt his game plan to the roster in front of him, something that was evident in his rotations at FAU and Michigan.
Looking at the limitations of this roster, shot creation and playmaking, while improved from last year, still stand out as the biggest weaknesses. Is May going to prioritize those areas? Or will he lean into the size and shooting the Mavericks have added throughout the offseason?
Unfortunately, we don’t have those answers yet. But I’m going to do my best to look at this roster through the eyes of Dusty May and rationalize what I think he might do.
So, who is going to play?
Looking at last year’s data for Mavericks players who appeared in at least 50 games, here is how the minutes were distributed:
Cooper Flagg: 70 GP, 33.5 MPG
P.J. Washington: 56 GP, 31 MPG
Naji Marshall: 74 GP, 29.5 MPG
Max Christie: 77 GP, 29.1 MPG
Brandon Williams: 66 GP, 22.2 MPG
Daniel Gafford: 55 GP, 21.7 MPG
Klay Thompson: 69 GP, 21.7 MPG
Ryan Nembhard: 60 GP, 19.5 MPG
Caleb Martin: 58 GP, 14.8 MPG
Dwight Powell: 63 GP, 12.3 MPG
This isn’t a perfect representation of the rotation, especially when you get to the final few players, but it gives us a starting point for this thought experiment.
I would normally lock Dereck Lively into the rotation, but from what I’ve seen, I don’t believe he will be ready to go on opening night. For now, I’m leaving him out.
The only other player I believe will be completely out of the rotation on day one is Caleb Martin. His offense, or lack thereof, is ultimately why I think he will start the season on the bench.
My locks for the day-one rotation are Kyrie, Cooper, P.J., Gafford, Naji, Max and Rez.
Assuming a 10-man rotation, that leaves six players fighting for the final three spots. Let’s make the case for each of them:
Moussa Cisse
Cisse was one of my favorite players to watch last season. When I was at games last year, I would spend stretches just watching him. He would contest a shot, fall down, then immediately sprint to the other side of the floor, ready for a pick-and-roll action.
He averaged 4.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, 0.5 steals and 1.2 blocks in 38 games while playing just 13.9 minutes per game. He was one of five players to average more than a block per game while playing fewer than 20 minutes per game. The other four were Yves Missi at 1.5 blocked shots in 19.7 minutes, Robert Williams at 1.5 blocks in 17.1 minutes, Mitchell Robinson at 1.2 blocked shots in 19.6 minutes and Adem Bona at 1.2 blocked shots in 17.4 minutes per game.
Per-36 is a flawed stat, especially for high-energy bigs who do a lot of the dirty work, but Cisse’s numbers translate to 11.5 points, 14.7 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 3.1 blocked shots per 36.
What will hold him back is his obvious offensive limitations, along with his tendency to foul. If he can clean up those areas, I believe Moose could develop into a solid rotation player this season.
Zaccharie Risacher
Unfortunately, Risacher didn’t show the year-one-to-year-two progression you would like to see. He went from 12.6 to 9.6 points, 3.6 to 3.8 rebounds, 1.2 to 1.1 assists and 0.7 to 0.9 steals per game, while remaining stagnant at 0.5 blocked shots.
His only notable improvement came from three, where he went from 35.5% to 36.8%.
I believe a fresh start is exactly what he needed, along with a fresh set of expectations. He has said himself that he wants to prove he belongs on the court and earn his minutes.
He has a quick release, can attack closeouts and has shown flashes defensively, but consistency is still the biggest thing missing from his game.
If he can maintain that 37% mark from three, or even improve it with more volume, and utilize his size on the defensive end, I could see him making a legitimate push for a starting spot by the end of the season.
Sergio De Larrea
De Larrea was the star of Summer League. He walks in as probably the best lob passer on the team and one of its best overall passers from day one.
The biggest limitation for him will be his scoring gravity. Nembhard had a very similar problem last year: if you aren’t a threat to score, your playmaking ability becomes significantly less effective because defenses don’t have to respect you as a scorer.
In his last two seasons playing abroad, De Larrea averaged 6.3 points, 2.7 assists and 2.2 rebounds per game on 45/41/77 shooting splits. On the bright side, his efficiency is solid, but it isn’t exactly eye-popping either.
He is young and still has plenty of room to grow. If Dusty May wants to prioritize playmaking and positional size, I can see Larry earning a spot in the rotation early on. But I think it may take some time before he is ready to consistently contribute.
Tarik Biberovic
Watching highlights of Biberovic reminds me of prime Warriors basketball: a bunch of off-ball actions designed to get shooters open and launch threes.
Over the last two seasons, he has averaged 42.9% from three on five attempts per game. And they come in every way imaginable. Stationary catch-and-shoots, highly contested attempts, coming off screens, it doesn’t seem to matter for this guy.
Nothing would bring life to the AAC quite like a Klay three, and I have a feeling Tarik is going to have a similar effect. The biggest questions are whether his defense will hold up and whether he can do enough off the dribble to keep the ball moving when defenses play him tightly.
Either way, I cannot wait for a Biberovic heat check.
Santi Aldama
A lot has been made this offseason of the fact that Aldama was one of just four seven-footers last season who shot at least four threes per game at a 35% or better clip. That is a unique skill set to have, and even more importantly, it is a skill set the Mavericks can actually use in a variety of ways.
Add in 6.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 1.5 stocks per game, and Aldama brings a ton of versatility to the lineup. If the Mavericks want to play five-out, they can use him at center. If they want to go big, he can slide to the four alongside another center.
Ultimately, his shooting ability could be the lynchpin that unlocks a number of different lineups for the Mavericks this season.
Marcus Sasser
Marcus Sasser had a down year, missing the first 23 games of the season with an injury before spending much of the remainder of the year in and out of the rotation. He posted career lows in every major statistical category last season except for three-point percentage, where he actually set a career high at 41.5%. Sasser brings some much-needed ball handling and self-creation, but as we’ve seen around the league this offseason, his archetype is becoming less valuable.
He competes defensively, but he is still an undersized guard. He can absolutely provide value when the Mavericks need a scoring punch, but I’m not sure that will be enough to earn him a regular spot in the rotation. If the Pistons who also were severely lacking playmaking and shot creation wouldn’t play him, will the Mavs?
So, Who Makes It?
Ultimately, who do I believe Dusty May will employ on game one?
I don’t think Sasser necessarily fits the positional size May appears to be looking for, and that the plan for ball handling will be to utilize Naji alongside the backup point guard.
As much as I love De Larrea and think he will be a good player, I also believe it is going to take some time for his development. His playing time early in the season may be inconsistent as he adjusts to the NBA.
That leaves Risacher, Biberovic, Cisse and Aldama fighting for the final spots.
Risacher is the closest thing to a lock among this group. He brings size, shooting and versatility to the wing, and even if he doesn’t have a breakout season, he should still be a useful bench player.
The same goes for Biberovic. As long as his shooting translates, which I have little reason to believe it won’t, he can provide something this roster desperately needs: spacing and high-volume three-point shooting.
That leaves the biggest question of all:
Cisse or Aldama?
Ultimately, I think Dusty May will lean toward Aldama.
With Gafford anchoring the starting five, Johnson and Aldama can form a sort of bullpen at the big-man spots, with both players capable of sliding between the four and five. The difference is what Aldama brings offensively. His shooting creates spacing that Cisse simply cannot provide right now. That versatility gives Aldama the edge.
So, my projected day-one rotation is:
Starters: Kyrie Irving, Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford
Bench: Naji Marshall, Tarik Biberovic, Zaccharie Risacher, Morez Johnson Jr., Santi Aldama
And that’s before Lively eventually returns.
There are still plenty of questions surrounding this roster, particularly when it comes to shot creation and how the offense will function when Kyrie isn’t on the floor. But that’s also what makes this team so interesting. There are a lot of different lineup combinations available to Dusty May, and several players who could force their way into bigger roles as the season progresses.
My day-one rotation probably won’t be the rotation we see by the end of the season. That’s the fun part.
For now, though, this is the group I expect to see when the Mavericks tip off Game 1.























