Category: Baseball

The Atlanta Braves earned their 75th win of the season after Thursday’s 2-0 win over the Chicago White Sox. Grant Holmes and Austin Riley allowed Atlanta to avoid the sweep during the makeup game. Holmes got the start, lasting six innings and allowing just one hit. He walked three and struck out three. 

Austin Riley drove in both of the Atlanta runs. He doubled in the third and singled in the seventh to give the Braves the edge. Though a makeup game, the Braves desperately needed this win following a tough series with the Minnesota Twins. 

The Braves are back in action this afternoon, as the weekend series kicks off with the Milwaukee Brewers. 

More Braves News:

Pitching prospect Luke Sinnard has been promoted to Double-A and will suit up for the Columbus Clingstones. 

Brett Sears struck out eight on Wednesday in Double-A. More in the minor league recap. 

MLB News:

The Arizona Diamondbacks are transferring Ketel Marte from the restricted list to the 10-day injured list. He is currently dealing with inflammation in his knee.

Athletics shortstop Jacob Wilson is likely done for the season. He has been dealing with a shoulder injury and is headed to Sacramento to see a doctor. 

The San Francisco Giants placed righty Keaton Winn on the 15-day IL with right elbow neuritis. The move is retroactive to August 19.

From the Feed:

Predict the outcome of the Braves-Brewers series here.

I like doing statistical analysis for two primary reasons. There are two main biases that it combats and we are all prey to those biases at one time or another. The first form of bias is what I would call immediacy bias. A great example of that is the string of short starts that the Astros are currently going through. The temptation is to assume that this has been constant throughout the season when that is almost never the case. There are ebbs and flows to these things, so looking at overall numbers can help us combat that bias.

The second bias is a local bias. We watch the Astros. Some of us watch them religiously. So, when we are watching one team 162 times a season and the other teams maybe a handful of times, it is easy to look at what your local group is doing and assume that it is either really good or really bad. We simply don’t have anything to compare it to. This becomes important when we are looking at relative strengths and weaknesses of a team. This can come into play in terms of game to game strategy or long-term questions about how the team should be structured.

We call this the lab because I like to start with observations that can be formed into a testable hypothesis. In this case, the hypothesis is that the Astros overly rely on their bullpen for innings because their starters do not go deep enough into games. We can test that simply by comparing them with the rest of the American League to see if that is true comparatively. We will start with the starting pitchers only in terms of innings pitched and ERA.

I should note that the most significant thing here is not that the Astros are 14th in starter ERA, but the gap between them and the Twins for 13th place. As my grandfather used to say, they are so far down in the cellar that they have to pipe light to them. Certainly, if one were to apply park effects to these numbers you could make an argument that the Astros rotation has been the worst in the American League this season when adjusted for inflation.

It shouldn’t be any surprise that they are 13th in starter innings. The White Sox low total is jarring, but the rest of the group kind of settles in. There are three teams within 15 innings of the Astros on the season. Over the course of 120 games, 15 innings is not a completely significant sum. These numbers serve to answer our main question: are our observations valid? The simple answer is yes. This team doesn’t pitch as deeply into games as most of the other teams in the league. The overall numbers include those first couple of months when things were rough, but on balance this has not been even an average starting rotation.

Obviously, we need some more information before we decide whether the lack of starting innings is a good thing or bad thing. Most would reflexively state it isn’t, but I would caution people before making that conclusion. Throughout baseball history, bullpen ERAs typically outpace starting pitching ERA when taken collectively. So, we should expect a positive differential. I’ll throw in the starting to reliever differentials so we see what is happening throughout the league.

Someone once said there are lies, damn lies, and statistics but that was obviously a gross simplification. Numbers are what they are and there is nothing that will change them. The question comes in how we interpret them. The Astros are third in bullpen innings. That is a fact and there is nothing that can change that. The question comes in how we choose to interpret that information.

Conventional wisdom would say that leading in bullpen innings is a bad thing. This is usually where the old-timers wax poetic about how pitchers used to finish their games back when men were men and sheep were nervous. I’d offer a different outlook. I’d simply say that you want to maximize your best performers as much as you possibly can. That means every manager has a different task, The managers with a negative differential are seeing their pens do worse than their starters. So, they should maximize starter innings as much as possible. The teams with positive differentials should maximize bullpen innings.

The best managers are the ones that can adapt to what their teams are actually doing. The Astros have the largest differential in the American League and likely the biggest in baseball. It may seem counterintuitive, but they should probably lean into that as they have lately. Obviously, there are workload concerns that can’t be ignored, but as a simple proposition, the pen is the best part of their pitching staff and that has been true even more so since May 1st.

Of course, this has broader implications in terms of roster construction. What is peculiar about this team is that you have a group of pitchers that have been effective in relief, but not effective as starters. That list includes Tatsuya Imai, Cristian Javier, and Kei-wei Teng. There is another group of pitchers that have worked heavier workloads in multi-inning opportunities. It’s a challenge for any manager, but this team may actually be better sticking to four and five inning starts and letting the pen carry the load. They run the risk of running out of gas, but the alternative is throwing out the worst rotation in the American League and hoping things work out.

The Dodgers roster has been a carousel of All-Star (both current and former) talent playing nearly every day and the taxi squad members whose role is equally vital to the team’s success.

One of those former taxi squad members, Santiago Espinal, has found a new home within the NL West. Espinal signed a minor league deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday, as per an announcement from the Triple-A Reno Aces via X.

It’s been a chaotic 2026 season for Espinal, who initially latched onto a minor league deal with the Dodgers and eventually made the opening day roster. He played in 36 games with the big league squad, slashing .268/.276/.375 with a home run and seven RBI across 60 plate appearances. He was released by the Dodgers on June 18 before signing a minor league deal with the Texas Rangers on July 2, only to once again be released 26 days later. Espinal slashed .262/.333/.310 with six RBI with the Triple-A Round Rock Express.

Links

Right now the biggest talking point for the Dodgers outside of Shohei Ohtani’s battle for MVP is the turbulent, lackluster first year of the Kyle Tucker experience. As the Dodgers prepare to open a three-game set against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday, all eyes will be pointed towards Tucker and whether he’ll continue to underperform at home or possibly find his old, pre-Dodger self at the plate.

Mookie Betts and Miguel Rojas both sat down and spoke about Tucker’s difficult season in the most recent episode of the On Base with Mookie Betts podcast, where Rojas touched on having his teammate’s back despite the challenges.

“I have all my confidence in Tucker… I am a true believer that when you feel good, you play good. When you’re going out there everyday knowing the guys have your back, it’s a good feeling… I really want him to believe that the opinions that matter are the ones that are to your left and to your right.”

Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports that Cox customers will finally be able to watch Dodger games on SportsNet LA.

On Friday, for the first time in 13 years, Cox subscribers within the Dodgers’ broadcast territory will be able to watch the team on their local television home. Fans can find SportsNet LA on Channel 63 in Orange County, Channel 54 in Palos Verdes, Channel 36 in Santa Barbara and Channel 50 in Las Vegas.

Johnathan Mayo, Jim Callis and Sam Dykstra of MLB.com picked Josue de Paula as the Dodgers prospect most likely to get a big league callup this year.

Happy Friday, everyone! We’ve made it through another week and we’re closing in on the end of August. Still hard to believe that the end of summer and the end of the regular baseball season are now just over a month away (howww????). This, of course, brings us to the weird and wacky position the wild cards are in, where it looks like several teams below .500 might be queued up to make it a very strange race to the finish to see who will make it to the postseason.

In today’s links we also dip a toe into a potentially controversial topic: is it time to shut Paul Skenes down for the season? The former ace pitcher for the Pirates hasn’t been himself this season and no one can say exactly why, but some are suggesting that letting him rest as much as possible might be the key.

We get into that and much more below, so let’s just jump right into it.

• Jay Jaffe assesses the state of the AL Wild Card and what it actually means for baseball.
• Jacob deGrom is the second -astest pitcher to reach 2000 strikeouts, reports Kennedi Landry.
• Ryan Phillips thinks Fernando Tatis Jr. is baseball’s greatest showman.
• Karl Rasmussen thinks the Pirates should shut Paul Skenes down for the rest of the season.
• A top MLB doctor talks about the legacy of Tommy John. Story by Cody Stavenhagen. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• Pretty sad they even have to make a statement about this.

• Ryan Blake shares why the Nationals moving CJ Abrams to second base is actually a good thing.
• How a video game helped Roy Oswalt get a perfect game. Story by Stephen J. Nesbitt. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• Brent Maguire reports that the Mariners are calling up baseball’s top pitching prospect.
• Thomas Harrigan reports that a Reds’ rookie has a chance to top the most RBIs by a rookie in a single season.
• Karl Rasmussen tries to predict the All-MLB Team.
• Nestor Cortes, former All-Star, has agreed to a 1-year deal with the Phillies. (AP)
• Jayson Stark looks at which players and teams are poised to break records and milestones this season. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• I’m no expert, but this looks pretty fair to me.

• Dan Gartland digs deeper into what the Orioles had to say to MLB after that was ruled foul.
• Jim Bowden looks at which players could be the x-factor for wild card competing teams. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• Michael Baumann wants to make sure baseball doesn’t lose the fun of the stolen base.
• One potential prospect call-up for each team. (MLB)
• Ryan Phillips and Karl Rasmussen try their darndest to explain the bizarre Ketel Marte situation.
• Kansas City has approved $600M for a new Royals stadium. (AP)
• Sam Blum wonders when it will be time for Craig Kimbrel to call it a close on his career. (The Athletic subscription required.)
• Man, they really do track everything in baseball. (Here’s a direct link to the Bluesky post for those reading on Apple News)

And tomorrow will be a better day than today, Buster. Make it so.

Triple-A: Nashville Sounds (Brewers) 7, Norfolk Tides 0

Heston Kjerstad reached base in all four plate apperances, but Norfolk never managed to bring him home. Kjerstad tripled and also worked a walk. Bryan Ramos and José Barrero added the other two singles.

Tides starter Juaron Watts-Brown failed to complete three innings during a disappointing day. The former Blue Jays prospect allowed a two run homer in the first. He posted a zero in the second, but things unraveled in the third. Brown threw only 38 of 73 pitches for strikes.

Yaqui Rivera tossed 2.1 scoreless innings of relief. Nick Raquet added a pair of zeros, and Yaramil Hiraldo did not allow a run in the ninth.

Double-A: Richmond Flying Squirrels (Giants) 2, Chesapeake Baysox 0

Anthony Eyanson continued to look the part with seven strong innings. Eyanson held Richmond off the scoreboard until they broke through with a broken-bat RBI single in the sixth. Eyanson finished the day with 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 8 K, 0 BB.

Eyanson was technically outdueled by Richmond. Yunior Marte, San Francisco’s 25th ranked prospect according to MLB Pipeline, pitched six scoreless frames. It’s a tough way for Eyanson to pick up his first loss at Double-A.

Anderson De Los Santos singled to bring the tying run to the plate in the ninth, but the Baysox failed to make it more interesting than that. Wehiwa Aloy pinch hit and grounded out to end the game.

Thomas Sosa finished 2-for-4 with a double. He was the only Chesapeake player to record multiple hits or anything more than a single.

High-A: Frederick Keys vs.Wilmington Blue Rocks (Nationals) — PPD

“Wet Grounds” was the official designation. The game will be made up as part of a doubleheader today.

Low-A: Hickory Crawdads (Rangers) 7, Delmarva Shorebirds 4

Harrison Kreiling started the game with 3.1 scoreless innings, but Connor Gehr coughed up seven runs (six earned) over 3.2 innings of bulk relief. Gehr was done in by three Hickory home runs.

Ty Head finished 1-for-3 with a walk and solo homer from the leadoff spot. Eric Booth Jr. singled and added a sacrifice fly in the eighth inning. Jemone Nuel and Adriander Mejía both doubled, and Jaide Lo Re managed a walk in four plate appearances.

Box scores

Friday’s Games

Norfolk: vs Nashville, 6:35. Starter: Cade Povich (1-4, 6.40 ERA)

Chesapeake: vs Richmond, 7:05 pm. Starter: Patrick Reilly (0-2, 5.60 ERA)

Frederick: Game 1, at Wilmington, 4:30 pm. Starter: Kyson Witherspoon (4-5, 4.46 ERA)

Frederick: Game 2, at Wilmington, TBD Starter: TBD

Delmarva: at Hickory, 7:00 pm. Starter: Esteban Mejia (0-7. 9.13 ERA)

The City Council approved a $600 million funding commitment for a downtown ballpark on Thursday.

More information about the financing will be published tomorrow ahead of the TIF Commission’s meeting, officials said. The City Council would be expected to vote on creating a TIF district and on formally issuing bonds for the stadium.

The council is also expected to vote on a related rezoning plan in September that would set flexible standards for future redevelopment in Crown Center.

The Royals are pursuing a $1.9 billion new stadium that would anchor a $3 billion entertainment district in the city’s urban core.

The Royals have committed to privately pay for $760 million of the project’s cost. The city and the team also plan to apply for state funding that could total roughly $540 million.

City staff said construction work could begin early next year and the completed stadium could open in time for the 2030 baseball season.

Kansas City Star columnist David Hudnall thinks the deal is being rushed through.

Consider these other giant red flags:

If the projections are wrong, that’s the city’s problem. The Royals aren’t guaranteeing the bonds. Kansas City is. If the taxes dedicated to the stadium fall short, the city still owes the money.

That’s what happened with the Power & Light District, where Kansas City has spent roughly $10 million a year on average since 2006 covering debt payments that district revenues couldn’t. If the same thing happens here, that money will have to come from somewhere else in the city budget. That means less funding for roads, parks, trash pickup, public safety or other basic services.

Maikel Garcia injured his hamstring in Thursday’s win.

Preston Farr updates his Royals prospect list.

Behind the top of the farm, the depth of the system has taken a slight hit. Sure, there are fringe prospects who could reach another tier, such as Ramon Ramirez (questions on position), Yandel Ricardo (inconsistent), and Justin Lamkin (injury).

For the most part, however, it’s a bunch of 40 FV prospects with a handful more who could blossom into better as they age. The largest upswing further down the farm has without question been the international influx. Since the arrival of Johnny DiPuglia in 2024, the Royals have done tremendously well. Gomez and Chourio headline that crop, but Ricardo and others such as Freddy Contreras, Jaider Suarez, and Warren Calcaño round out what’s becoming a solid international pipeline for the Royals. 

Matt Snyder at CBS Sports looks at which bad teams can turn things around next year.

I was burned by this Royals team in 2026, but there are plenty of good players here. Bobby Witt Jr. is capable of an MVP season, and we’ve seen enough from Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone to believe they could be All-Stars next year if things break right. Vinnie Pasquantino is capable of a better season, too. On the pitching end, they’ll have Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha back, while Noah Cameron looks like a star right now. A midseason return of Cole Ragans will help bolster the rotation, and maybe they find outside-organization help or someone like Justin Lamkin hustles on his way to the majors. The AL Central isn’t exactly a juggernaut division, either.

Awful Announcing has their broadcaster rankings, with the Royals’ team at #25.

Additionally, some viewers feel there are “too many cooks in the kitchen” due to a large, rotating cast of secondary analysts. Sideline reporter Howard is noted as a “promising” addition who is still finding her own voice. Overall, one’s tolerance for Hudler appears to be the deciding factor in how one appreciates these broadcasts.

“Eric Hosmer has been an incredible addition to the team, adding new stories while also diving much deeper into the strategy and player mindset of the game than what’s been the norm for years,” wrote one grader. “Rex Hudler is still a lovable Kansas City treasure, but the Hosmer/Hudler contrast has been a welcome change of pace for KC.”

Yirsandy Rodriguez at Royals Keep thinks Steven Cruz has a fastball problem.

Craig Brown writes about the wins over the A’s and their bad bullpen.

The Phillies claim former Royals pitcher Andrew Hoffmann off waivers.

The Royals officially released Starling Marte.

Braves pitcher Grant Holmes loses his no-hit bid in the seventh inning against the White Sox.

Sal Stewart could soon become just the seventh rookie since 2000 with 100 RBI.

Dane Myers drops the final out, leading the Reds to blow a wild game against the Cardinals.

Athletics shortstop Jacob Wilson is likely done for the year with a shoulder injury.

The Orioles are frustrated about replay involving home runs and the foul pole.

The Phillies sign former All-Star pitcher Nestor Cortes Jr.

Diamondbacks brass calls Ketel Marte’s absence “bizarre” and want an apology from him.

The AL Wild Card race is a competitive balance mess.

The players with high expectations that are running out of time to meet them.

What to know about the investigation into Dodgers owner Mark Walter.

MLS may be planning a drastic playoffs overhaul.

Walmart promises price cuts after a $2.9 billion tariff refund.

The Odyssey is now the highest-grossing R-rated movie ever.

South Korea wants to go to the moon.

Your song of the day is Ol’ Dirty Bastard with Shimmy Shimmy Ya.

Good morning, baseball fans!

The San Francisco Giants may have lost yesterday’s game against the Cleveland Guardians, but that doesn’t mean there wasn’t anything to celebrate.

Willy Adames hit a two-run home run in the top of the fourth inning, scoring Rafael Devers and giving the Giants their only two runs of the game.

But this wasn’t just any home run, this was Adames’ 200th career home run! That is absolutely an accomplishment worth celebrating. So today, we’re doing a Willy Adames appreciation post to celebrate!

Great job, dude! And keep it up!

What time do the Giants play today?

The Giants head east to begin a three-game weekend series against the Boston Red Sox tonight at 4:10 p.m. PT.

Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte has been moved from the restricted list to the 10-day injured list following a puzzling absence that saw him miss Monday night's game in Boston.

The decision came after Marte met with general manager Mike Hazen and manager Torey Lovullo to address the circumstances surrounding his disappearance, which neither party disclosed.

Lovullo explained Marte returned to Phoenix to undergo medical tests on his knee earlier this week. However, Lovullo expressed frustration that Marte did not communicate his whereabouts or status during this period, leaving the coaching staff and teammates unable to reach him.

MLB playoff picture: Which wannabes can win the World Series?

On Thursday night, Marte met with Hazen and Lovullo to discuss the events that led to his absence and the missed game against the Red Sox. Following the meeting, Hazen provided an update, stating Marte received a knee injection to address inflammation discovered on an MRI.

Triple-A: Syracuse Mets (61-61)

SYRACUSE 5, WORCESTER 0 (BOX)

Syracuse went with a bullpen game and wound up shutting out Worcester, and eight of the nine Syracuse hitters who played in the game had at least one hit, and Billy Amick continued his home run hitting ways with his eighth since coming to the Mets organization at the trade deadline.

• LF Nick Morabito: 1-4, R, BB, SB
• 2B Émilien Pitre: 1-3, R, BB
• 3B Billy Amick: 1-4, R, HR, RBI, 2 K
• DH MJ Melendez: 1-4
• 1B Nick Lorusso: 1-3, R, BB, 2 K, 2 SB
• RF Jose Ramos: 2-4, 2B, 2 RBI, K
• CF D’Andre Smith: 0-4, 2 K
• C Shawn Ross: 2-4, R, 2 2B, 2 K
• SS Zack Short: 1-4, K
• P Kevin Herget: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• P Brian Metoyer: 2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K
• P Joe Jacques: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
• P Dan Hammer: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• P Dylan Ross: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

Double-A: Binghamton Rumble Ponies (51-66)

ALTOONA 7, BINGHAMTON 5 (BOX)

Kevin Parada hit a two-run home run in the bottom of the ninth, but Binghamton came up two runs shy of a comeback.

• SS Jefferson Rojas: 1-4, R, 2B, K, E
• DH Jacob Reimer: 0-3, RBI
• CF Chris Suero: 1-4, 2 K
• LF John Bay: 1-4, R, 3 K
• 1B Corey Collins: 1-2, R, 2 BB, K
• C Kevin Parada: 2-4, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI
• RF JT Benson: 0-3, RBI
• 2B Jamari Baylor: 0-4, RBI, 2 K
• 3B Branny De Oleo: 0-3, 3 K
• P Noah Hall: 6.0 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
• P Brendan Girton: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
• P Saul Garcia: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

High-A: Brooklyn Cyclones (50-65)

ASHEVILLE 13, BROOKLYN 6 (BOX)

This was a rough one for Brooklyn in a season that’s seen the team lose far more than it’s won. Recent trade acquisition Sammy Stafura struck out three times in four at-bats.

• SS Sammy Stafura: 0-4, R, BB, 3 K
• RF Aidan Smith: 0-4, R, BB, 3 K
• 1B Ronald Hernandez: 1-3, R, 2 BB
• CF Trey Snyder: 1-4, R, HR, 3 RBI, K
• DH John Spikerman: 0-3, R, BB, K, SB
• 2B Antonio Jimenez: 0-3, BB, 3 K
• LF John Smith III: 1-3, R, HR, RBI, SB
• 3B Colin Houck: 1-4, K
• C Daiverson Gutierrez: 1-4, K, E
• P Joel Díaz: 3.0 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
• P Joe Scarborough: 0.1 IP, 0 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 1 K
• P Elwis Mijares: 1.1 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• P Gregori Louis: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• P Juan Arnaud: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• P Ryan Dollar: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Single-A: St. Lucie Mets (50-66)

LAKELAND 6, ST. LUCIE 2 (BOX)

Lakeland scored first with a run in the top of the first, but St. Lucie plated a pair in the bottom of the second. Unfortunately, that was it for the St. Lucie lineup, and Lakeland evened things up with a run in the fourth before taking the lead for good with a three-run fifth.

• CF Aiden Robbins: 0-5, 2 K
• SS Boston Baro: 1-2, SB, E
• SS Dylan Carey: 0-1, BB
• C Ryan Tayman: 0-3, BB, 2 K
• LF Jack Toomey: 1-3, BB, K, SB
• DH Yovanny Rodriguez: 0-3, BB, 2 K
• 1B Julio Zayas: 0-2, R, 2 BB, K, E
• 3B Vladi Gomez: 1-4, R, 2B, K
• 2B Jake Ogden: 1-3, 2 RBI, BB, K
• RF Wyatt Vincent: 0-3, K
• P Nathan Hall: 3.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
• P Austin Brown: 1.2 IP, 2 H, 4 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
• P Christian Rodriguez: 4.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

STAR OF THE NIGHT

The Syracuse bullpen

GOAT OF THE NIGHT

Joe Scarborough

Something strange happened during the three months Roman Anthony was sidelined with a tendon tear in his right ring finger: He became both overrated and underrated all at the same time. There’s no great way to fully quantify both ends of that statement, but work with me here as we dive into the two extremes (hand up on one of them).

In one camp, we have the people who saw Roman Anthony in April and have decided that 30 games of underwhelming results followed by an injury is enough to toss him aside. I’ll only include three examples here from recent days, but we could have a field day with hundreds of posts echoing these sentiments from the last three months. (Maybe we’ll do that for a day during the lockout this winter.)

EL! OH! EL!

I’m extremely confident these people are going look like complete bozos in short order. Not only does Roman Anthony possess a ceiling higher than anybody else on the roster, but he’s also coming back into a completely different environment than he was in April.

At the start of the season, Anthony was in the middle of a whirlwind that in the previous ten months included getting called up to the majors, learning quickly and having success against the best in the world, getting injured and missing the end of the year with an oblique strain, watching Alex Bregman leave for the Cubs and having the leadership role dumped in his lap, trying to balance a torrent of media requests while preparing for his first full season in the majors, and then getting invited to play for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. And all this as a 21-year-old.

Now he gets to come back to something completely different. He’s healed, well rested (physically and mentally), and coming into an environment where his presence can elevate an already established roster as the missing piece that might put them over the top.

Furthermore, Roman Anthony strikes me as the silent assassin type. There’s little doubt in my mind he’s seen and heard what the clueless continent of fans are saying about him, and I hope he’s a little angry or annoyed by it (I know I would be!). We could be on the verge of a revenge tour for the ages, and I have my popcorn ready.

Additionally — and probably most importantly — the underlying metrics are all still there. Below is Anthony’s bat speed distribution from his baseball savant bat tracking page, and when you combine velocity like that with his pitch recognition skills, there’s zero reason to be any less excited about his ceiling. I won’t go into the gory math details today, but they all scream he could still soar has high as a mountain and fast.

To put it another way: I don’t really care what Anthony did in April at this point in the proceedings. Not when he spent the previous years rising to the No. 1 prospect ranking in all of baseball, spent much of last season in the majors posting a 140 wRC+, and then followed that up with a .920 OPS in the World Baseball Classic in March. April is clearly the outlier month here.

Also, not that he’ll become this guy, but if you take Roman Anthony’s 30 games at the start of this season (career games 72 through 101), they line up remarkably well with Barry Bonds’ career games 72 through 101. Bonds just turned 22 at that time he played those game, Anthony was about to turn 22 in the spring. Bonds hit just .200 over that stretch, Anthony hit .229. Bonds posted an OBP of .336 in those games thanks to the walks, Anthony posted a .354 OBP in those games thanks to the walks. Bonds had just six extra base hits over that 30-game span, Anthony had seven. Bonds had a .646 OPS, Anthony has a .675 OPS this year. Again, the ceiling is still there.

So to reiterate, Anthony’s April doesn’t faze me at all. I’m weirdly confident we’re at the beginning of something remarkable, and I can’t wait to watch it play out. But you know what alarms me though? Anthony’s September and May. Those are the months he strained his oblique and torn a tendon in his finger, and both injuries upended his season. The only reason 2026 isn’t a total disaster is because the injury happened so early in the year, and he still has runway to do something special.

I wrote about this topic extensively in June, but the possibility of Anthony’s elite swing being the thing the might break him is the reason people like me might be overrating Anthony. Just like those posters above, we could also be made the fool in short order. It doesn’t matter how high your ceiling is if you can’t stay on the field, and even though I’m as confident in Anthony’s total package as any as player I’ve ever seen come out of the Red Sox farm system, I also spent years watching and writing about Troy Tulowitzki’s career, so I know how this can end.

The bottom line is somebody’s about to look really, really stupid really, really soon, and I’m equal parts thrilled, anxious, ecstatic, and terrified to find out what that entails.

Welcome to Roman Anthony’s comeback, where together we’re all probably about to live out a dream, or a nightmare.

There are few tasks more vexing than trying to find greatness lurking amid mediocrity. And that brings us to the final five weeks of Major League Baseball’s season.

The contenders are real: Congratulations in advance to the Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees and, probably, the Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox.

You’re going to the playoffs.

Four of those teams will receive first-round byes and thus avoid playing in the best-of-three wild card series, further enhancing their championship odds. But what to make of the mid, the uninspiring, the 12 teams lurking within four games of a playoff spot, yet far from guaranteed an October ticket?

More important, are they worth our time? Are they simply two-and-out fodder to provide television inventory to the networks and the league and the gambling-addicted masses?

Can they win the World Series?

Breaking down six teams within the disappointing dozen who absolutely can win it all – if they can simply get in the playoffs:

Hello, friends.

Just when you thought you were in, they shove you back out. That’s the 2026 Orioles guarantee. Three straight exciting wins against the Rays to start a tough ten-game stretch have now been followed by four straight losses, ground gained by those wins evaporated along with any fan excitement. A 6-1 setback to the Yankees last night sealed a sweep, a lifeless affair by the O’s that saw them allow two more unearned runs to head towards the probable franchise record there. Check out Stacey’s recap of the game for more of the not-so-lovely totals.

As far as their lingering wild card hopes, the Orioles are only two games back even after the four-game losing streak. Their problem is going to be more that they have five teams to pass. They’re going to have to be at least a game and as many as three games hotter than all five of those teams from this point forward. They probably won’t be able to do it. There are too many flaws going on with the roster, especially if the starting pitching is losing its edge as the inning totals creep up.

The Rays are next. The Orioles played them pretty well down in the Trop. Maybe they can pull another reversal for us; it wouldn’t be the first time this year that they’ve tempted people to give up on them only to see them find another rally. It’s been a regular feature of the team going back to the start of the season. Always bad enough to inspire disgust, never quite bad enough to completely give up on them.

They are, however, running out of room to make the big move to the front of the pack. Only 34 games remain to them now. The Orioles might need to go 23-11 to do it. That’s asking a lot of a team that hasn’t had that kind of baseball in them for much of the season. We’ve all experienced too much of the stupid stuff that they can pull to believe in things going that way for that length of time.

But, it’s not over til it’s over, as the cliche goes. It’s not over yet for the Orioles. They could keep slim hopes alive for a while longer while also maybe even stoking some hopes for next year if certain players – especially Gunnar Henderson – are able to revive their fortunes between now and the end of the season.

Tonight’s game will air on Apple+ TV and on Apple+ only, so if you don’t have a subscription to that service, you have an easy excuse to take a day off from the Orioles if you want. Trevor Rogers and Freddy Peralta are the scheduled starting pitchers for the 7:15 game.

Orioles stuff you might have missed

The AL Wild Card mess is competitive balance, and it isn’t pretty (FanGraphs)
After recent games, the Orioles are increasingly less a part of this mess. It’s even less pretty for us. Jay Jaffe’s focus particularly is on the possibility of a sub-.500 team getting into the postseason in a 162-game season for the first time ever. If that’s in play, then maybe the Orioles only need to go 20-14 – still asking a lot, if not quite as much.

How Pete Alonso is taking a hands-on role in helping Gunnar Henderson salvage his season (The Baltimore Banner)
This is the kind of thing the Orioles just haven’t had in recent seasons. Unfortunately, there are a whole bunch of other problems involved.

Bautista back in Baltimore before eventual rehab assignment (School of Roch)
The rehab assignment for Bautista is starting soon. I’m nervous for him!

This lefty Orioles prospect could join bullpen for stretch run (Orioles.com)
An actual article about something I mentioned yesterday, namely that prospect Luis De León has moved into the bullpen to have him as a possible callup option for September.

Since trade from Seattle, Alex Hoppe has been bringing the heat (Steve on Baseball)
Having a 0 ERA in six games as an Oriole is sure a nice beginning.

Birthdays and Orioles anniversaries

Today in 1977, Brooks Robinson retired after 23 major league seasons and 2,896 games played for the Orioles.

In 2001, Tim Raines Sr. and Jr. were opponents in a Triple-A game that involved the Orioles then-Triple-A affiliate Rochester. By the end of the season, they were major league teammates with the Orioles.

There are a pair of former Orioles who were born on this day. They are: 2019-20 outfielder Mason Williams, and 1971 infielder Jerry DaVanon. Today is DaVanon’s 81st birthday, so an extra happy birthday to him.

Is today your birthday? Happy birthday to you! Your birthday buddies for today include: jazz pianist Count Basie (1904), basketball legend Wilt Chamberlain (1936), musician Kenny Rogers (1938), System of a Down frontman Serj Tankian (1967), sprinter Usain Bolt (1986), and actress Hayden Panettiere (1989). Panettiere passed away earlier this week.

On this day in history…

In 1791, enslaved people in Saint-Domingue in Haiti attended a “voodoo” ceremony that is now recognized as the beginning of the twelve-year Haitian Revolution, in which the enslaved people of Haiti overthrew their French colonizers and enslavers all at once.

In 1911, an Italian working at the Louvre stole the Mona Lisa with the aim of restoring the painting to Italian control. It was recovered three years later.

In 1959, Hawaii was admitted as the 50th of the United States.

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And that’s the way it is in Birdland on August 21. Have a safe Friday. Go O’s!

Greetings, Brew Crew Ball community. The Brewers bounced back nicely this week, as they maintained (and even slightly outplayed) the Cubs this week to stay atop the NL Central with just over a month to go.

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