MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - OCTOBER 11: Andrew Friedman, President of baseball operations for the Los Angeles Dodgers, speaks to the media prior to game one of the National League Championship Series against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on October 11, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Dodgers 2026 season has ended, so it’s now time to focus on what figures to be a tumultuous offseason with the Major League Baseball collective bargaining agreement expiring on December 1. But before we get to the lockout, there are still roster decisions to be made, so let’s see how the Dodgers look at the start of their offseason.
The season ended with six Dodgers players on the 60-day injured list and thus 46 players on the 40-man roster. The morning after the World Series ends, that number will be reduced to 37, with nine players set for free agency.
Free agents (9)
Tarik Skubal
Miguel Rojas
Kiké Hernández
Kris Bubic
Eric Lauer
Alex Vesia
Evan Phillips
Blake Treinen
Brusdar Graterol
Because Tarik Skubal was traded midseason, he is ineligible to be tendered a qualifying offer, so the Dodgers won’t receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere. Same for Kris Bubic and Eric Lauer, but they weren’t going to get a qualifying offer anyway. Miguel Rojas retired after 13 seasons as a player, and already has a spot waiting in the Dodgers front office, with a focus on player development.
The qualifying offer is a one-year offer, derived from the average of the top 125 salaries in the league that year. This offseason’s qualifying offer will be $23.15 million, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post, up 5.11 percent from $22.025 million last year.
The Dodgers have no player or club options heading into the offseason, but let’s first look at the players under contract.
Per the collective bargaining agreement, the present value of the deferred salary for a season must be fully funded by the second July 1 following said season. So for the $68 million earned by Ohtani in 2026 that will be paid in 2036 must be funded by July 1, 2028. Payroll for competitive balance tax purposes accounts for all deferrals, converting them into net present value and averaged over the life of the contract. For Ohtani, his CBT payroll number is just over $46 million.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed a 12-year, $325 million contract prior to the 2024 season. He received all of his $50 million signing bonus in 2024, and lower salaries in the first three years of the deal, hence the $12 million salary in 2026. That bumps up to $26 million for each season from 2027-29. The right-hander can opt out of his contract after either the 2029 and 2031 seasons or 2031 and 2033, depending on whether or not he experiences certain injuries and misses a certain amount of time.
Mookie Betts prior to the 2020 season signed a 12-year, $365 million extension that started in 2021 and runs through 2032. His contract fits the rubric of many Dodgers contracts to follow, with a large signing bonus ($65 million, 17.8 percent of the total) as well as a sizable amount of deferred salary ($115 million, 31.5 percent). For both 2026 and 2027, Betts has a $25 million salary, of which $10 million is deferred, plus he gets $5 million of his signing bonus, for a total paid of $20 million in each of these two seasons.
Kyle Tucker’s four-year, $240 million contract included a $64 million signing bonus, of which $10 million will be paid on February 1, 2027. His salary for 2027 is $54 million, minus $10 million deferred. He can opt out of the final two years of his contract after the 2027 season.
Blake Snell’s five-year, $182 million contract included a $52 million signing bonus that was all paid in 2025. The remaining $26 million per year includes $13.2 million deferred each season, leaving Snell with $12.8 million per year. Snell’s contract also includes a conditional 2030 club option with $10 million depending should he suffer a qualifying injury.
Tommy Edman signed a five-year, $74 million contract ahead of 2025 that included a $17 million signing bonus already paid. His salary in both 2026 and 2027 is $12.25 million, of which $6.25 million is deferred annually. The Dodgers hold a $13 million club option on Edman for 2030 that includes a $3 million buyout.
Edwin Díaz last December broke his own record for highest average annual salary by a relief pitcher with his three-year, $69 million contract. In 2027, Díaz has a $23 million salary, of which $4.5 million is deferred.
Tanner Scott’s four-year, $72 million contract runs through 2028. His $20 million signing bonus is split evenly over the four years of the contract. Scott in 2027 has a $15 million salary, of which $5.25 million is deferred, plus $5 million of his signing bonus.
Teoscar Hernández has a $14.5 million salary for 2027, of which $8 million is deferred, and the Dodgers have a $15 million club option for 2028 with a $6.5 million buyout. That’s $21 million in guaranteed money should the Dodgers try to trade Hernández and open up an outfield spot for Josue De Paula.
Max Muncy had a base salary of $10 million in 2026, then played in a career-high 149 games and batted 561 times. Incentives in his contract added $2.25 million to his base salary in 2026 ($15,000 for every plate appearance from 401 to 550), and also added $3.75 million to his 2027 base salary ($20,000 for every 2026 PA from 401 to 500, $35,000 for every 2026 PA from 501 to 550). Muncy’s contract originally called for a $7 million base salary in 2027 (now $10.75 million), and the Dodgers have a $10 million club option in 2028 with a $3 million buyout.
Hyeseong Kim is under contract for $3.75 million in 2027, and the Dodgers have a two-year club option for 2028-29 at $5 million in each season, with a $1.5 million buyout if declined.
All told, the 14 players under contract have a total competitive balance payroll of roughly $339.5 million for 2027. The caveat here is we don’t know if the competitive balance tax will remain in the current format with a new collective bargaining agreement, or if it will even exist at all. But that’s what the Dodgers have on the books for now.
Player
Pos
Age
Service
2026 salary
2027 proj.
Options (used)
Brock Stewart
RHP
35
5.093
$1,300,000
$1.8 million
0 (’16-‘19)
Jake Cousins
RHP
32
4.091
$950,000
$1 million
1 (’22,‘24)
Alex Call
OF
32
3.161
$1,600,000
$1.9 million
2 (2024)
Emmet Sheehan
SP
27
3.063
$810,000
$2.1 million
1 (’23,‘25)
Gavin Stone
SP
28
3.034
$810,000
$1.2 million
2 (2023)
Andy Pages
OF
26
2.155
$800,000
$4.9 million
1 (’23,‘24)
The salary projections above are from MLB Trade Rumors. We’ll dive deeper into each case in the offseason, just like we did last January. But for now, if those projections hold, that would add six players for a guaranteed $12.9 million. Added to the players already under contract, that’s 18 players for about $351.4 million for competitive balance tax purposes.
Andy Pages is eligible for arbitration as a Super Two player, a player among the top 22 percent in service time for players with at least two but not yet three years of service time. It takes 172 days to accrue a full year of service time. Alex Call was a Super Two player last offseason.
If this were a normal offseason, the date for players and teams to exchange salaries for arbitration would be Friday, January 8, 2027. But MLB will almost certainly be in a lockout by then. In the 2022 season, some salary arbitration hearings were held well after the regular season began.
Player
Pos
2027 age
Service
2026 salary
Options (used)
Bobby Miller
RHP
28
2.119
$800,000
1 (’24-’25)
Kyle Hurt
RHP
28
2.057
unknown
1 (’24,’26)
Ben Casparius
RHP
28
2.016
$800,000
2 (2024)
Jack Dreyer
LHP
28
2.000
$810,000
3 (none)
Roki Sasaki
SP
25
2.000
$800,000
3 (none)
Edgardo Henriquez
RHP
25
1.164
$790,000
2 (2025)
Justin Wrobleski
SP
26
1.150
$790,000
2 (2024)
Dalton Rushing
C
26
1.138
$790,000
3 (none)
Seth Halvorsen
RHP
27
1.137
unknown
2 (2026)
Hunter Feduccia
C
30
1.095
$782,000
1 (’24-’25)
Will Klein
RHP
27
1.081
$790,000
2 (2024)
Landon Knack
RHP
29
1.079
unknown
0 (’24-’26)
Alex Freeland
IF
25
1.004
$782,500
1 (’25-’26)
Paul Gervase
RHP
27
0.059
unknown
1 (’25-’26)
Eliezer Alfonzo
C
27
0.054
$780,000
2 (2026)
Josue De Paula
OF
22
0.017
$780,000
3 (none)
Ronan Kopp
LHP
24
0.000
unknown
2 (2026)
The major league minimum salary in 2026 was $780,000. The 2027 minimum salary hasn’t yet been determined, but will certainly be a part of the next collective bargaining agreement. The 22.7-percent raise from 2021 to 2022 (the first year of the current CBA) was the largest such negotiated increase in nearly two decades.
October28-November 1: At 6 a.m. PT the morning after the World Series ends, players with at least six years of service time and/or at the completion of their contracts become free agents.
November 2-6: Five days after the World Series ends is the deadline for teams to make qualifying offers to players. It’s also the end of the “quiet period” of free agency, during which players can only sign with their former team.
November 17: 1 p.m. PT deadline for players to accept qualifying offers
November 17: Reserve lists filed (prospects added to 40-man roster)
November 20: Tender deadline
Josue De Paula would have been added to the 40-man roster by that November 17 deadline to avoid getting plucked in the Rule 5 Draft, but he was already called up in September. Players drafted or signed at age 19 or older in 2023 or players drafted or signed at 18 or younger in 2022 are newly eligible for the Rule 5 Draft this December. Dodgers top pitching prospect Christian Zazueta, signed by the Cubs out of Mexico in 2022, will need to be added to the 40-man roster by November 17. Zazueta has won the Branch Rickey Award as the Dodgers minor league pitcher of the yearfor two years running, and he just turned 22 last week.
Another potential addition is Jackson Ferris, a former top Dodgers pitching prospect drafted by the Cubs in 2022 who struggled for most of 2026 before a sublime final five weeks.
The collective bargaining agreement expires at 8:59 p.m. PT on December 1, after which the owners will lock out the players. But there’s still about a month that could be quite busy on the hot stove before the sport gets shut down for the winter.
Sep 30, 2026; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Andrew Painter (24) celebrates after a win against the Atlanta Braves after game two of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Yesterday, our topic of discussion was what is your own worst-case scenario for what the Phillies will do this offseason. Today, we’re going to try and envision a scenario where everything goes right, or at least as right as possible.
Like we mentioned yesterday, the Phillies have their work cut out for them. The free agent market is weak, but the Phillies should have plenty of money to use on it to find whatever upgrades are possible. They will be freeing up close to $40M in dead money with the contracts of Nick Castellanos and Taijuan Walker alone coming off the books. Add in the likely subtraction of José Alvarado’s $12M and Alec Bohm’s $10M salaries, and the Phillies will likely be around $50M under their 2026 payroll commitments after arbitration. Through all of their faults, the team has yet to waver on its commitment to operating with a payroll around the top five highest in MLB. Until they signal that is no longer the case, you should feel some confidence that they will spend somewhere around or at least equal to the $290M they featured at this season’s end.
The Phillies desperately need upgrades and some new life, but they also have a good core to work with. Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo are both ace level starters that are locked up long term. Zack Wheeler is still under contract for one final season. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, no matter what you may think of their peak abilities at this stage of their careers, were still top 15 hitters in MLB by OPS this season. The rest of the lineup needs major improvements, but those two are two very good starting points. The bullpen was a mess, but Jhoan Duran was one of the best closers in baseball, and he is still under contract through 2028. You can debate what that group’s ceiling is, but they have a very high floor, provided of course there are no devastating injuries which are admittedly a risk with some of the ages involved. A perfect offseason would involve finding the right additions to raise that floor.
Finally, perhaps the biggest reason for optimism heading into next season is the resurgence of Andrew Painter. the young right hander returned from a demotion to Triple-A in late July and looked like a new pitcher, capping off his season with a tremendous showing out of the bullpen in the postseason. Perhaps Painter isn’t capable of becoming the pitcher he was pre-Tommy John surgery, but he showed enough last season to have one hopeful that he can still be a good piece for the future.
So, what is your best-case scenario for the Phillies this offseason? What free agents would satisfy you? Any particular trades that you’re set on?
DETROIT, MI - JULY 27: Taylor Ward #3 of the Baltimore Orioles during an at-bat against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on July 27, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The 2025 Orioles struggled to hit home runs, so Mike Elias went into the off-season with a goal of acquiring some boppers. His first move came early, on November 19th, when he traded starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez for longtime Los Angeles Angels outfielder Taylor Ward.
Ward was coming off of 36 home runs with the Angels and had hit over 20 in two of his last three seasons. He wasn’t a prolific power hitter, but he seemed like he a good bet to be among the team leaders. It’s a bet I would have lost, as Ward’s power disappeared almost completely.
The Angels selected Ward in the first round of the 2015 draft; he made his Major League debut in 2018 and went on to play 704 games for the team over eight seasons. He didn’t start playing full time until 2022, when he had 23 home runs and a .360 OBP in 135 games. In 2025, Ward hit .227.317/.475 with 36 home runs, a career high. The OBP wasn’t impressive, but the home runs sure were. And his OPS+ of 120 would have made him one of the most valuable bats in the Orioles’ lineup.
With one year left before free agency and Ward slated to make over $10 million in arbitration, the Angels were ready to part ways with the slugger. Over in Baltimore, Mike Elias had seen enough of the always-injured Grayson Rodriguez. Rodriguez won’t be a free agent until 2030, and he was a top prospect with the Orioles. He had a solid 2024 before a season-ending injury stretched into all of 2025 as well. It was still shocking to see the Orioles cut ties with him when for so many years he was considered the pitcher of the future.
But whether it was his troublesome medicals or just a hunch by Elias, Rodriguez was sent packing in exchange for Ward. The Angels got a talented but flawed pitcher with plenty of time ahead of him. The Orioles got a player who might help them get back to the postseason in 2026.
The thing is, Taylor Ward wasn’t very good. Or at least, he wasn’t good offensively in the way the team expected. Defensively, he was a nightmare.
The season started off well for Ward. He didn’t hit the promised home runs, but he was a double-machine. Through his first 13 games, he had 19 hits. 10 of them were doubles. Surely as the weather warmed, those doubles would turn into home runs, right? And in the meantime, it was fun to call him Taylor Two Bags.
But after that quick start, Ward stopped getting extra-base hits. After racking up 10 doubles through 13 games, he had just three in his next 18. He finally hit his first home run on April 19th, which was a relief. That’s what he was here for! But his second home run didn’t come until a month later. He ended the season with just seven. And after his initial burst of 10 doubles, he hit just 10 more over the rest of the season. Taylor Two Bags had turned into Taylor Too Bad.
Something weird happened with Ward, though. He started taking walks like crazy. Ward has never been terrible at walks, but it became almost comical in 2025. In May, he had an OBP of .348 despite a batting average of just .182. He took 33 walks in the month! With 81 walks, he had a walk rate of 17.2% for the year, well above his career average.
So that was Ward on offense. Weirdly good at taking walks and disappointing in almost every other way. And speaking of disappointing: his defense.
Ward manned left field exclusively for the Orioles, which was hard to watch. He took bad routes, had bad range, and a mediocre arm. So he did not help the Orioles defensively, nor did he bring the power Mike Elias was hoping for.
When the trade deadline approached with the Orioles in the midst of another disappointing year, Elias sent Ward packing. The Seattle Mariners, clinging to the fringes of the playoff race, took a chance on him. They sent the Orioles three relief pitchers in return. Harrison Kreiling and Brock Moore went to the minors, and Alex Hoppe joined the big-league team. Hoppe, who had been terrible with the Mariners, became a solid contributor out of the bullpen. He should be in the mix for a spot next season.
As for Ward, his time in Seattle was terrible. In 101 plate appearances, Ward got just 11 hits. As a Mariner, he had 10 singles and one triple. No doubles, no home runs. He did take 12 walks. Between his time with the Orioles and Mariners, he had 99 total.
Now Ward heads into free agency in a pickle. He is coming off his worst season since he was a rookie, and he will turn 33 on December 14th
In what is more of an indictment of the Orioles than praise of Ward, he did as the third-most valuable Oriole with a 2.7 bWAR. His many walks helped with that, as he slugged a paltry .346. FanGraphs was not as generous; his fWAR was just 1.8.
And what of Grayson Rodriguez? He did pitch this year. He made 20 starts with a 6.02 ERA and missed some time due to injury. His best start of the season came against the Orioles, of course. In August, he pitched seven innings and allowed two runs on three hits. There aren’t really any winners in this trade, though Rodriguez does have three more years to prove his worth to his new team.
Los Angeles, - October 15: Tarik Skubal #29 of the Los Angeles Dodgers looks on after the Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 6-4 to win Game 4 of a NLCS playoff baseball game and advance to the World Series at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles on Thursday, October 15, 2026. (Photo by Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images) | MediaNews Group via Getty Images
There were a lot of comments at some point in the past eleven months or so that said something like, “Who cares about xyz, you’ll do it for a chance to lose to the Dodgers in October…” Well, it’s October, and… only the Braves lost to the Dodgers therein. Every other team either lost to someone else, didn’t make the postseason, or has their season still ongoing.
It’s fitting, perhaps, that with the Dodgers eliminated, none of the remaining teams still “in it” have a payroll in baseball’s top half. The Brewers are 20th (19th by luxury tax balance), the Guardians are dead last (29th), and the Rays are 28th (27th). So much for that narrative surviving the spin cycle that is MLB trying to shoehorn a short series playoff format onto this sport and league.
But, all of that doesn’t mean you don’t have feelings about the Dodgers bowing out. (Or, getting steamed out like a rug stain.) So, if you do, what are they?
TORONTO, ON - SEPTEMBER 14: Troy Melton #52 of the Detroit Tigers pitches during a game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on September 14, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Happy Friday, everyone! As we continue our way through the postseason and get closer to knowing which two teams will be headed to the World Series. In Tigers news, we look at a positive outlook for young pitcher Troy Melton, and in broader baseball news, we look at some players coming in clutch for their teams in the postseason.
Plenty to share to get your Friday underway, so let’s just get right into it.
Detroit Tigers News
Very positive news for the Tigers and for Melton.
Tigers RHP Troy Melton, whose season ended in mid-September with forearm tightness, went thru follow-up evaluation. No issues found, according to team. He’s beginning a normal offseason workout routine.
The league-wide batting average this postseason is .212. The average fastball is 96.2 mph. Hitting is hard. In the postseason, it's Sisyphean. To better understand why, we spoke with Joey Votto and Alex Bregman, two of the purest hitters of this generation, for their insight. pic.twitter.com/F47YD2dcU8
Boston, MA - July 20: Boston Red Sox third baseman Caleb Durbin and first baseman Willson Contreras embrace as fans cheer in the background. The Boston Red Sox played the Baltimore Orioles at Fenway Park on July 20, 2026. (Photo by Christian Kantosky/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) | Boston Globe via Getty Images
Team MVP
In the spirit of picking a hitter to win MVP, I guess it’s Willson Contreras. His OPS was the third-highest among qualifiers and was fairly consistent throughout the season. Sonny Gray, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu all deserve shouts too, but Contreras played for most of the season and stayed steady throughout.
— Jacob Roy
I’ll say Ceddanne Rafaela. There are a couple of guys you could go with here without hearing an argument from me, but I can’t get over the jump in offensive production to go along with the all-world defense. Who can say for sure if the 113 OPS+ will be the norm moving forward, but he’s improved his average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage every year during his still-young career. The first-time All-Star gets my vote for MVP.
—Fitzy Mo Peña
I actually think it’s Caleb Durbin, which is both a credit to him and a knock to the team as a whole. When the Summer Sox managed to rip off that sensational 32-5 stretch in an otherwise disastrous season, Garrett Crochet wasn’t there, Roman Anthony wasn’t there, Trevor Story wasn’t there, Ranger Suarez was mostly hurt, Connelly Early got hurt and then got traded, and even Willson Contreras — who had a fantastic year overall — was either suspended or banged up for ten of the games scattered throughout that streak (and the team went 9-1 in those games where he either didn’t play or didn’t make it to the end). But do you know who played in every single one of those games during the 32-5 stretch? Caleb Durbin. And he did it posting an .885 OPS. Oh, and on top of Durbin being great during the streak, he also posted the highest WAR of anybody on the team from May 28th onward after he revamped his swing.
—Matthew Gross
Willson Contreras. Despite 2026 being an extremely up and down year there are actually a number of players who could be the team MVP. Rafaela, Durbin, Tolle, are all contenders. But Contreras was there from day one to the end as almost the living representation of the heart of the team.
— Mike Carlucci
I agree with Mike on two counts: there are several contenders, and the winner is Willson Contreras. He was essentially the heart and soul of the team.
— Maura McGurk
Team LVP
Jarren Duran couldn’t stop finding his way into the lineup, and he couldn’t stop not hitting the ball. His glove was solid, but a 76 OPS+ shouldn’t warrant 600 at-bats.
— Jacob Roy
Yeah, Jacob really said it best there. Over 600 plate appearances for a guy who only just barely hit his body weight (.207 compared to 205 pounds per Baseball Reference, nice!) is tough to justify, even if he did go 20-20. I wonder how rare it is to hit 20 homers for Boston yet only have an OPS that’s 10 points higher than the city’s area code. The defense looked better, at least (except for a few real bad standout examples; that Colorado one comes to mind). A year to forget for Mr. Duran, unfortunately.
—Fitzy Mo Peña
I’m sure most people don’t want to hear this, but it’s Garrett Crochet. He entered the season as the guy who was supposed to be the ace, and instead we got six starts to the tune of a 6.30 ERA, a -0.5 WAR, and an injury that kept morphing into something more complex and problematic. Then, he was allowed to return out of the bullpen in a do or die Game 2 with the season on the line in a tight 2-0 affair, and all four batters he faced scored. You can say he was unlucky, and you’d be right, but no player underperformed expectations more than Crochet in 2026.
—Matthew Gross
It’s weird to say a guy who went 20-20 but Jarren Duran. You can definitely see it was torturing him to struggle. He had a great May and August. Just didn’t do much those other months. Hopefully he bounces back in 2027 because he has too many skills to put up a season that’s only just over 0 WAR.
—Mike Carlucci
Jarren “Nothing Happened” Duran. I’m talking about not only his performance in 2026, which left so much to be desired but also his repeated tussles with fans and even our beloved Willson Contreras. “Nothing happened” was his stubbornly repeated response when asked to address his interaction with a fan in June. Granted, it was a Yankees heckler and that person was shown the exit. Duran had already tangled with a fan in April (not to mention even more notable interactions in past seasons). In July, he boiled over at Willson Contreras, who correctly held (and was held by third-base coach Chad Epperson) at third base. Duran thought he should have run anyway and let him have it. This guy doesn’t seem to learn.
—Maura McGurk
The correct answer is Jarren Duran and Matt makes a compelling case for Garrett Crochet. But I’ll shoot for something different here: Carlos Narvaez. Craig Breslow acquired the team’s ace by trading away the team’s catcher of the future, Kyle Teel. Narvaez was acquired to replace Teel and, for a while there in 2025, it looked like he would do just fine. But, in plummeting back down to Earth this year (.161/.241/.226 – yikes!), Narvaez left the team not only with a black hole in a lineup that already had one too many of those, but turned the catching position into an open question for the foreseeable future — a question that Breslow then had to answer by sending out yet more future assets to bring in Adley Rutschman, who still may not be the catcher of the future given his contract status. Narv busting could negatively impact this team for years to come.
— Dan Secatore
Most Pleasant Surprise
Mickey Gasper couldn’t buy a hit in his first stint with the Red Sox, bounced to Minnesota, and then yo-yo’d between Worcester and Boston on his return to the Red Sox system. He was, potentially unfairly, asked to catch nearly every day when the offense needed a spark, but his bat couldn’t support his subpar defense behind the plate. At 30 years old, his career seemed to be on life support, but when he was recalled in the middle of August and asked only to hit against right-handed pitchers, he became a weapon. Not like a pepper spray type weapon, more like a tank or a gatling gun. Something cool and explosive. Seriously, he hit more home runs than Vladimir Guerrero Jr., except the former’s came in 33 games and the latter played 144.
He also went to the very esteemed Bryant University. Other notable alumni include Matt Gross, “Coach” from Cheers, and myself. I guess his success shouldn’t come as a surprise, based on the fact that he was able to withstand the rigorous academic curriculum required to receive a degree from Bryant.
— Jacob Roy
Nick Sogard becoming a capital-D Dude in 2026. That’s a ballplayer, man. Switch-hitting infielder guy who can get hot from time to time and play solid defense up the middle, he’s a solid guy to have around. I don’t know what the future holds for him when it comes to playing time—Curtis Mead’s gonna come a-knockin’—but I love the idea of Sogard being a platoon guy moving forward. He’s got a fan in me.
—Fitzy Mo Peña
The 15-game winning streak itself. I watched it, I lived it, I studied it, I wrote about it, and I still have no idea how it happened. It shines like a diamond in the middle of a gigantic pile of garbage.
—Matthew Gross
Connor Wong. The backup catcher had a brutal 2025 after Cora called upon him to fill in at first base and second base in addition to catcher the prior year. Then after losing the job in 2025 was called on to manage the pitching staff in 2026. The expectations were low and he showed he still has some years left in the tank.
—Mike Carlucci
Best Newcomer
I was super high on Jake Bennett after Spring Training, and then a little more tepid after his first couple of starts in the majors. He’s on the old side for a prospect, but given how many pitchers were in front of him on the depth chart, he found himself in the majors earlier than anticipated. He didn’t skip a beat and posted a 3.65 ERA over 20 appearances while blowing past his career high in innings and clearly battling some fatigue down the stretch. The rotation doesn’t survive the summer without him, so he’s my pick.
— Jacob Roy
Do I pick the former Cardinal with the 153 OPS+, or do I pick the former Cardinal with the 150 ERA+? Tie goes to the guy who was playing mostly every day prior to his injury; I’ll say Willson Contreras. He’s going to be pretty pivotal for our hopes in 2027.
—Fitzy Mo Peña
More props to Caleb Durbin! He was put in an impossible situation when asked to follow both Rafael Devers and Alex Bregman at third base, and after a disastrous first eight weeks of the season, he managed to catch fire and thrive. As noted above, it’s not really a great sign in the grand scheme of things that Durbin was the best player on the roster for the final four months of the season, but it’s a huge credit to him and how much he grinded to turn his (and the team’s) season around.
—Matthew Gross
Caleb Durbin. You want someone who can carry the mantle of Dustin Pedroia? Here he is! Probably winning a Gold Glove too in addition to having an injury that kinda kicked off a winning streak.
—Mike Carlucci
I’m having trouble deciding between Willson Contreras, who really carried the team on his back in so many ways this season as the heart and soul of the team, and Caleb Durbin. I’ll go with Durbin since, as a much younger player in only his second season, he’s more “newcomer” to the league overall (not just the Sox). I know, that’s getting hyper-specific but I couldn’t help myself; it was a tough call.
—Maura McGurk
Best Storyline
Anything involving Payton Tolle. Take your pick. I love him like a son.
—Fitzy Mo Peña
I absolutely love the connections between Chad Tracy and his father Jim. Back in 2009, Jim took over the Rockies in May when Clint Hurdle was fired. The team then dipped to a season low 12 games under .500 (20-32) in early June, and then rallied on the back of a ridiculous 17-1 stretch to grab a Wild Card. This year, Chad Tracy took over the Red Sox in April when Alex Cora was fired. This time, the team dipped to an even worse 14 games under .500 (32-46) in late June. But then in near perfect symmetry, these Red Sox rallied on the back of an astounding 32-5 stretch to grab a Wild Card. Unfortunately, both teams also proved quick postseason exits, with neither winning a single round in October. (At least we’ll always have this beautiful graph where we can marvel at the wondrous connections.)
—Matthew Gross
Payton Tolle vs The World. The hug. The balk. The pushup. Talking about being in the rain like he was Obi-Wan Kenobi on Kamino. Extremely talented at the game and has a fantastic outlook on life.
—Mike Carlucci
Caleb Durbin, “It’s only a pinky!” Maybe more like a tagline than a storyline, but what else is there to say?
—Maura McGurk
No matter what he does for the rest of his career, Mickey Gasper’s heater is going to be remembered forever.
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - MARCH 27: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees celebrates with Giancarlo Stanton #27 after hitting a home run during the game at Oracle Park on March 27, 2026 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Suzanna Mitchell/San Francisco Giants/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Taking a look back at some highlights and Statcast numbers from the 2026 season, it’s clear the Yankees know how to crush the ball hard.
It doesn’t come as a shock that Big G dominates this list of the highest exit velocities, as he’s historically one of the most dominant power hitters in franchise history, and a few of Aaron Judge’s homers made the cut. On the other hand, it’s more surprising that both Luis García Jr. and Jazz Chisholm Jr. made the list, considering they both struggled to gain any offensive momentum in the postseason.
Despite leading the Yankees with 41 homers in the regular season, Ben Rice didn’t make this list, as his highest exit velocity reached 110.9 mph on a home run ball against Miami in early April.
Here’s a closer look at this season’s top heavy hitters.
Jazz starts this countdown with a 112.4 mph shot into the corner that bounced off the wall to Twins right fielder Luke Keaschall. He probably could’ve made the sprint for second, but he appeared to have skidded in the dirt and made it back to first before Keaschall could make the play to the infield.
García Jr. got it sharply off the bat at 112.5 mph, but a quick grab from Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies led to an easy throw to first baseman Matt Olson for the first out of the second inning. Thankfully, this is the only out on the Yankees’ top 10 EVs of the season!
Judge built off his momentum in Texas sparked by a later hit on the list and launched another solo home run, his 10th of the season and second of the series. Thie shot off Cole Winn was the 380th of his career, breaking a tie with Hall of Famers Orlando Cepeda and Tony Pérez on the all-time home run list; he ended the year even at 70th with Cubs great Aramis Ramírez at 386.
Launching it 112.8 mph to left field, Stanton brought in Cody Bellinger and put runners on second and third while giving the Yankees a 4-0 lead in Seattle.
While registering a multi-hit game on Opening Day against the Giants, Stanton’s second knock was a crushed 114.4 mph single up the middle and drove in Bellinger to put the Yankees up 6-0.
Jones launched a leadoff single in the ninth against Baltimore, but it wasn’t quite enough fuel to make the late comeback. This was fortunately one of the meaningless final games of the regular season, after New York was already locked into its playoff spot.
Stanton strikes yet again on this list with a 115.2 mph line drive to center, and gave the Yankees a hit against the Marlins in the first. Remarkably, it wasn’t even his only knock of at least 115 mph against his old team on April 5th.
It’s refreshing to see another one of Judge’s homers make this list from earlier in the season, when vibes were high. He sent this one 456 feet at 116.2 mph, just shy of Stanton’s top EV.
Stanton unshockingly tops this list with a single, drilling it 368 feet at 116.3 mph. He literally dented the left-field wall, and it was hit so hard that it was a no-brainer for him to stop at first.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 15: Aaron Ashby #26 of the Milwaukee Brewers celebrates with teammates after recording the final out of the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers in game four of the National League Championship Series at Dodger Stadium on October 15, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Half of the World Series matchup is set after the Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 6-4 to sweep the NLCS. While the Atlanta Braves are sitting this one out, the hot stove is beginning to simmer as the club has been connected to a pitcher from Nippon Professional Baseball. Hiromi Itoh was reportedly linked to the Braves, and here is everything you need to know on why he is a “potential fit.”
MLB News:
After 13 seasons and 2 World Series Championships, Miguel Rojas has announced his retirement.
Oct 15, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (17) leaves the dugout after losing the NLCS for the 2026 MLB Playoffs against the Milwaukee Brewers at Uniqlo Field at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Only two teams can make the dance. For the first time in three years, the Dodgers aren’t one of those two teams. The Milwaukee Brewers completed a four-game NLCS sweep over the Dodgers on Thursday, reaching the World Series for the first time in 44 years.
This officially closes the book on the team’s gaudy expectations of a three peat. Although the Dodgers took ahold of an early 4-0 lead, they couldn’t muster anything else while the Brewers ran away with six unanswered runs. Dave Roberts put it simply during his post-game presser; they got beat.
“It never feels good to lose and not accomplish your goals to win the World Series. It started back in the early part of February, and I love this team… This series, I can’t give enough praise to the Brewers organization… We just got beat in four games.”
So much has to go right for a team to win the World Series, even more so for a team fixated on securing their third straight title. The last two years weren’t perfect despite the glory, and this year wasn’t any easier for an aging core. Bill Plaschke of the Los Angeles Times delves into what glaring issues prevented the Dodgers from making it past the NLCS this year in his latest column. The biggest issue was dealing with a hobbled, slumping Shohei Ohtani, whose big moment wasn’t enough to extend the series to a potential Game 5.
Bottom line, the Dodgers could not three-peat without the full strength of their most important hitter. Ohtani is the catalyst for everything they do, everything they are. He hit a three-run homer in the second inning of Thursday’s Game 4, but it was too little, way too late.
Now the offseason has officially begun for the Dodgers, and they’ve already seen an aging veteran call it a career with Miguel Rojas announcing his retirement shortly after Game 4’s conclusion. The Dodgers will certainly have many questions to answer this offseason— one of the main ones being Shohei Ohtani’s future status as a full-time two-way player, as noted by Dylan Hernandez of the California Post.
The Dodgers might be the second-best team in baseball behind the Brewers, but they can’t return with a similar roster next season and expect the results to be any different. Farewells are in order. Farewell to long-time Dodgers who will forever be known in these parts as World Series heroes. Farewell to Ohtani hitting and pitching full-time. With how the Dodgers were thumped by the Brewers, president of baseball operation Andrew Friedman has a clear directive. Adjust – or else.
Happy Friday, everyone! As we enter the weekend, we will soon know which team will join the Brewers in heading to the World Series. In the meantime, we look at how Shohei Ohtani busted his HR slump at the exact perfect time. We also look at how Jake Bauers pulled through for the Brewers with an incredible at-bat in a clutch moment.
We’re also starting to see some of the early moves of the postseason as the Astros part ways with Joe Espada, and other teams make additional moves to their managerial staff and teams start to make contracts with players.
The league-wide batting average this postseason is .212. The average fastball is 96.2 mph. Hitting is hard. In the postseason, it's Sisyphean. To better understand why, we spoke with Joey Votto and Alex Bregman, two of the purest hitters of this generation, for their insight. pic.twitter.com/F47YD2dcU8
LOS ANGELES, CA - OCTOBER 15: David Hamilton #6 of the Milwaukee Brewers rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run in the ninth inning during Game Four of the National League Championship Series between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Los Angeles Dodgers at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium on Thursday, October 15, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The League Championship Series round rolled on Thursday with a slightly modified schedule. MLB had to preemptively move the third game of the ALCS up from a 6 p.m. ET start time to 1 p.m. ET due to ominous weather in Northeast Ohio and that slightly tweaked the start time of the NLCS as well (though that remained a clear night game). It’s important for MLB to get these games in without messing with the offday schedule too much, and while it was unfortunate that some fans in Cleveland likely couldn’t go to the third game with the new time, it’s hard to count on weather for the rest of this week near Lake Erie, too.
Hopefully ALCS Game 4 goes off without a hitch tonight! I would definitely like to see that LCS continue as soon as possible. Here’s what went on yesterday though.
National League Championship Series Game 4
Milwaukee Brewers 6, Los Angeles Dodgers 4 (Brewers win series 4-0)
Man, I can’t believe that happened. I thought that despite the mismatch in people’s minds, the Brewers were a lot closer in talent level to the Dodgers in 2025 and simply played like dogs for a week while getting swept in a mostly uncompetitive series. And yet even I didn’t think that the Brew Crew had a vengeance sweep in ‘em.
The Hall of Famer has it right. That’s the word to describe these Brewers: relentless. They played a tough series with the Padres to send them home in the Division Series, only to get matched up with a Dodgers team that is extremely similar to the one that dusted them in 2025.
Their response was to drop a hammer on ‘em and return the favor, even with the Dodgers throwing great starter after great starter at them. Two-time Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal lost a 2-1 nailbiter in the opener. Already-established playoff legend Yoshinobu Yamamoto got grounded into submission, departing after recording just eight outs in Game 2, a 7-4 Milwaukee win. Back in LA on Wednesday, the Brewers shook off mostly excellent work from another two-time Cy in Blake Snell, blasting back-to-back homers against him in the seventh immediately after the Dodgers had taken a 2-1 lead. This damn team was resilient, and the 6-2 win had them up 3-0 in the series.
So why would the Brewers be intimidated in Game 4? Sure, Tyler Glasnow was sharp early on, and sure, Shohei Ohtani had at last broken out of his injury-affected slump to belt his first homer since August 18th, a 428-foot tank off former teammate Dustin May.
Milwaukee trailed, 4-0, and Dodger Stadium was in a frenzy. If they survived Game 4, then they could at least dare to dream with Skubal, Yamamoto, and Snell lined up for the next three and it at least being unlikely for all three to again falter.
The four-run lead looked safe … until it wasn’t. (Ask the 2024 Yankees about seemingly comfortable leads vanishing on the brink of elimination.) The Brewers began to chip away in the fourth, when Brice Turang’s one-out walk was followed by consecutive automatic doubles from William Contreras and Jake Bauers. Glasnow might have stranded Bauers by getting Christian Yelich and Garrett Mitchell to ground out, but the lead was sliced to 4-2.
Glasnow was then knocked out in the fifth following a manufactured run created by a Sal Frelick walk, a stolen base, and an RBI single by David Hamilton. Evan Phillips came in to walk the bases loaded, and when Alex Vesia tagged in, he didn’t have the plate either. Bauers battled him for a walk to bring home the tying run.
JoJo Romero relieved May with a scoreless fifth, and in the sixth, Dave Roberts turned to one of his high-leverage relievers early to keep the game knotted. Instead, Mitchell took Tanner Scott yard 409 feet away.
The Brewers were in front, and even with chances, LA was kept off the board. Kyle Tucker hit a one-out double in the sixth; Romero got Teoscar Hernández to ground out and fanned Max Muncy. Aaron Ashby took over in the seventh, allowed a leadoff double to Andy Pages, and stranded him. Kiké Hernández bunted Pages to third, Ohtani went down on three strikes, and Mookie Betts bounced to short.
The Dodgers had a third consecutive inning with a two-bagger in the eighth, courtesy of Will Smith. Ashby was nails, with Tucker lifting a shallow fly to center and Teoscar striking out. When Teoscar went down, it was truly the last gasp. Hamilton homered off Edwin Díaz in the ninth for an insurance run and Ashby polished off his three-inning save, getting Kiké to line out to Jackson Chourio to end it. He threw shutout ball in 5.2 innings across five days of the sweep.
With that, the Brewers have won their first National League pennant and first flag since winning the 1982 ALCS over the Angels with “Harvey’s Wallbangers.” The 2023 Yankees legend Bauers was named NLCS MVP for his excellent at-bats across the sweep, and Milwaukee will now be looking to end its drought as one of five franchises to never win it all. They’ve been around for nearly 60 years without a trophy and Milwaukee hasn’t seen a title since the Braves beat the Yankees in 1957 before moving to Atlanta.
Also hey, in addition to Bauers, old friend Gary Sánchez gets to take in the World Series stage! He’s the Brewers’ backup catcher and an occasional pinch-hitter. Good for El Gary, I still love that guy.
Maybe this year is finally the year for the Brew Crew. No matter what, with the Dodgers done and dusted, we’re guaranteed to either get a first-time champion (Milwaukee or Tampa Bay) or the end of the longest current championship drought (Cleveland, 78 years). Congrats to the Brewers, and bye-bye, Dodgers. They must reckon with an aging offense that hit a paltry .185/.270/.250 in the series, with Freeman, Betts, Smith, Teoscar, and Muncy combining to go 11-for-70 with no homers and 17 strikeouts (plus Ohtani dead quiet until Game 4). The three-peat dream is over, Skubal is a free agent, and they’ll just have to see what’s next.
American League Championship Series Game 3
Cleveland Guardians 3, Tampa Bay Rays 2 (Guardians lead series 2-1)
The Guardians got off to a fast start in the ALCS against the favored Rays by swiping home-field advantage away from Tampa Bay with a win in Game 1. After the Rays countered by taking Game 2 to split the first two at the Trop, the setting shifted to Progressive Field in Cleveland. I don’t know if I’d necessarily predict the Rays dropping three in a row to the Guardians, but by taking Game 1, Cleveland at least created the possibility of ending the series in front of their own fans with wins in Games 3, 4, and 5.
Outside of the Tampa Bay clubhouse, no one really wants to return to the Trop, and credit to the Guardos for getting that dream started on the right foot with a narrow 3-2 victory in Game 3. They entered with the pitching advantage of American League strikeout king Gavin Williams against Griffin Jax, so regardless of the outcome of the next two games in Cleveland, it was important for them to take this one.
Williams was heavily used in the ALDS against the White Sox with two starts and a relief appearance, so manager Stephen Vogt said that he would be using him carefully in Game 3. That proved to be the case, as while Williams looked sharp in five innings of two-hit ball with nine strikeouts and just one walk, his afternoon ended after just 70 pitches. It probably didn’t help that both of the hits he allowed came in the same inning, when he nearly worked around a leadoff double by Yandy Díaz. Williams fanned Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero; indeed, he struck out the side in that inning, but not before Victor Mesa Jr. walked and Chandler Simpson laced a two-run triple into the right-field corner.
Cleveland had taken a 1-0 lead in the second when Nathaniel Lowe doubled in Jo Adell after the latter’s leadoff walk, but the Simpson triple made it 2-1, Tampa Bay.
Although the Guardians had their chances against Jax, they went 0-for-4 with runners in scoring position, stranding Lowe in the second and José Ramírez in the third. The game changed, however, on one bad pitch from Jax. Patrick Bailey led off the fifth with a Baltimore chop for an infield single. Next up was the unheralded Petey Halpin, and on a 2-2 pitch, Jax threw a sinker that caught way too much of the zone:
Halpin didn’t miss the mistake, taking it 385 feet deep to right-center field for a go-ahead, two-run bomb.
The score was 3-2, Cleveland, and there it stayed thanks to dynamite work from the much-used Guardians bullpen. There was no margin for error and some dangerous hitters in Tampa Bay’s lineup who the Yankees unfortunately understand can take anyone out (OK maybe not Simpson, but he did his specific job yesterday anyway). Daniel Espino blew Caminero and company away in the sixth, Erik Sabrowski pitched a perfect seventh of his own, and while Hunter Gaddis allowed a double to Richie Palacios among the three batters he faced in the eighth, rubber-armed Cade Smith entered and struck out Díaz in a 10-pitch battle.
The Rays did Smith and Vogt a favor with a pretty uncompetitive final frame. The Canadian righty did less work in that inning than he needed in one at-bat against Díaz, retiring Aranda, Caminero, and Mesa on eight pitches. Game 4 is supposed to be tonight at 8 p.m. ET, but again, we’ll see how the weather cooperates. Nick Martinez is aiming to even up the series for Tampa Bay, while a possible bullpen game will try to put Cleveland a win away from its first Fall Classic in a decade.
Anthony DiComo breaks down Bo Bichette’s upcoming decision about the opt-out clause in his contract, and like the rest of us, he concludes that it’s likely that Bichette will opt in.
Lauara Alabnese takes us behind the scenes for a look at the people who orchestrate all of the various things that Mr. and Mrs. Met wear and use during games at Citi Field.
The Brewers completed a sweep of the Dodgers with a thrilling come-from-behind 6-4 win in Game 4 of the National League Championship Series in Los Angeles.
Speaking of thrillers, if you’re into well-pitched, low-scoring playoff games, the Guardians’ 3-2 win over the Rays in Game 3 of the American League Championship Series yesterday afternoon was tailor made for you.
Petey Halpin, an outfielder who got just 195 plate appearances in the big leagues this year in Cleveland, hit a decisive two-run home run in the fifth inning, turning the Guardians’ one-run deficit into a one-run lead.
Brewers first baseman Jake Bauers was named NLCS MVP, a well-earned honor after he put up a .986 OPS in the series and came through with multiple big hits.
Despite their reputation for small ball in the regular season, the Brewers walked, struck out, and hit home runs very frequently in their NLCS victory.
Miguel Rojas, who began his major league career with the Dodgers before spending eight years with the Marlins and returning to the Dodgers for the past five seasons, announced his retirement following the Dodgers’ loss.
Shohei Ohtani, who led off for the Dodgers last night despite his recent struggles and hit a three-run home run in the second inning, isn’t sure if his knee and biceps injuries will require surgery this offseason, but he plans to return to pitching next year.
Jayson Stark took a look at Ohtani’s struggles, which began in July and, three-run home run last night aside, continued throughout the Dodgers’ playoff run.
Before the Dodgers’ elimination, Max Ralph took a look at how their pitching would line up if they were to pull off a comeback after trailing 3-0 in the series.
Two years ago today, the Mets were blown out and shut out by the Dodgers in Game 3 of the NLCS, but on this date in 1969, the team won the World Series for the first time.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 14: Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Dodgers looks on from the dugout during the ninth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers in game three of the National League Championship Series at Dodger Stadium on October 14, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Good morning!
The Dodgers are done in 2026.
After winning back-to-back World Series titles, the L.A. streak is over. It doesn’t mean the dynasty has ended, but it’s definitely damaged and aging.
The Milwaukee Brewers are going to the World Series for the first time since 1982 and will be playing the winner of the Rays-Guardians ALCS series for what could be their first World Series win.
A new team representing the National League — what a beautiful thing.
On the home front, the Rockies made a change to their coaching staff on Thursday. It’s too soon to know if there will be more changes on the horizon, but it will be interesting to keep an eye on.
The Colorado Rockies made their first offseason change on Thursday when they fired pitching coach Alon Leichman. The Rockies still finished with the worst ERA in MLB at 5.59. The starting rotation was even worse at 6.28 ERA — also dead last. As of Thursday night, the Rockies hadn’t made the move official and there is no word on who will replace him.
This video highlights the work of Edwin Perez, who serves as an interpreter for the Colorado Rockies. When members of the media interview Spanish-speaking players, Perez helps interpret the questions and answers. Perez has been with the Rockies for two years. He grew up playing baseball, but he changed directions in high school when he realized he didn’t have what it takes to be a pro baseball player. He switched to broadcast journalism, but really found his home when he found the Rockies and could use his bilingual skills.
Scott Roche breaks down Cole Carrigg’s impressive rookie season in the context of being named the Rockies best player under age 25, according to Bleacher Report. Roche also mentions the breakout season of another rookie, TJ Rumfield, who is 26 years old. Carrigg turned 24 in June and had an impressive season at the plate and defensively in center field.
Although this is an indirect Colorado Rockies story, it’s a good one nonetheless. Kaleb Geiger grew up in Colorado playing baseball and dreaming of playing for the Rockies. He played in college, but changed gears when it didn’t look like his path to playing professionally would come to fruition. After learning he had the athleticism to possibly excel in another spot, he grabbed a rugby ball and played for the American Raptors in Glendale, Colo. He now plays for the New England Free Jacks of Major League Rugby and has also kitted up for the USA Eagles.
Jake Bauers is having the best season of his career and he put an exclamation point on it with this award. He drove in six runs and was clutch in Thursday’s win to complete the sweep. The craziest part of this story is finding out that the Brewers haven’t had a LCS MVP before despite winning the ALCS 44 years ago. Even though they beat the Angels in that series, Angel Fred Lynn was named MVP.
Petey Halpin hit a two-run homer in the fifth inning to help lead the Guardians to a 3-2 victory on Thursday over the Rays to take a 2-1 lead in the ALCS. Cleveland starter Gavin Williams continued to be a strikeout machine as he recorded nine strikeouts in five innings.
There really aren’t enough praying mantises in baseball stories. One landed on Jackson Chourio’s shoulder during Milwaukee’s NLCS game against the Dodgers on Wednesday. Chourio made a great diving catch and then noticed his new friend on his shoulder. The praying mantis stayed with Chourio for a bit. It’s worth watching the video.
It’s not a very flashy free agent class this offseason, so Tim Britton looked back at the top free agents, as well as the worst and best deals for the last 10 years. The Rockies made the list for two of the worst deals in the last 10 years and I’m confident you all could guess which players own that. The Rockies also gave up some of the best free agents when they couldn’t or wouldn’t re-sign them.
ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 22: Shane McClanahan of the Tampa Bay Rays looks on from the dugout during a game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Tropicana Field on September 22, 2024 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mark Taylor/Getty Images) | Getty Images
We take a break from your regularly scheduled playoff baseball to talk about 2027. Assuming there is no lockout and baseball proceeds as usual, MLB Trade Rumors have dropped their projections for salary arbitration results for players next season, of which the Rays currently have a whopping 17 eligible.
Tampa Bay Rays Player (years.days of service): Salary projection
Shane McClanahan (5.158): $6.6MM
Nick Madrigal (5.137): $1.1MM
Tyler Wells (5.132): $4MM
Cole Sulser (5.096): $1.9MM
Taylor Walls (5.092): $3.5MM (Rays hold a $3.1MM club option)
Griffin Jax (5.091): $5.7MM
Garrett Cleavinger (5.060): $3.7MM
Nick Fortes (4.149): $3.4MM
Bryan Baker (4.049): $4.1MM
Ryan Pepiot (4.005): $3.1MM
Kevin Kelly (3.156): $2.6MM
Richie Palacios (3.156): $2MM
Edwin Uceta (3.150): $1.5MM
Manuel Rodríguez (3.139): $900K
Jonny DeLuca (3.085): $1.7MM
Jesse Scholtens (3.032): $900K
Jonathan Aranda (3.030): $4.1MM
In total, this is just over $50 million in player salaries. It seems likely not all of these Rays players will make it to the 2027 roster, as the Rays could move on from various names through dismissal or trade, but it’s a helpful projection in considering what new ownership might want to do in their second year paying players.
Today’s article is the final of a 3-part series, broadly investigating expected results for a team that can boast the kind of young talent that the Reds have in Elly De La Cruz and Chase Burns, who combined for over 10 WAR and made up roughly 1% of the team’s overall payroll. We’ll start by highlighting five teams that both had similar players in value and relative cost to the 2026 Reds.
2019 Chicago White Sox (72-89, finished 3rd in AL Central, didn’t qualify for postseason)
Top Hitter: Yoan Moncada, 5.1 WAR, $575K salary
Top Pitcher: Lucas Giolito, 5.4 WAR, $573K salary
Combined salaries: 1.3% of team payroll of $89.4M
Injuries:
Lost Carlos Rodon (a 2 WAR pitcher the year prior) for all but 34 innings in 2019.
Free agent signing Jon Jay was a way below average outfielder in 2018. He lost roughly 4 months to injuries in 2019.
The team lost a bevy of relievers for large chunks of the season, but none who were significant contributors the year before.
Summary: There are stories out there about the number of injuries the ’19 White Sox had to deal with, but the data tells a story of a team that was only modestly impacted.
Dead Weight:
None that I can find.
Surprising Breakthrough:
The point of this section is to examine if the two best players on the team were projectable. In other words, was there reasonable expectation during the offseason last year that these two would be as good as they were?
Yoan Moncada played a season and a half at second base for the White Sox in 2017-18. 2018 was a full year of him hitting for a 714 OPS and contributing 1.3 WAR. He had been a consensus top 10 prospect across all of MLB for a couple of years before that. Still, I don’t think anyone would have guessed that a 2019 move to third base would have also coincided with a 200 point jump in OPS and a nearly 4 win increase in value.
Similarly, Lucas Giolito had also been an elite prospect who demonstrated a massive leap forward in 2019. The 2018 version of him allowed the most earned runs in MLB and he posted a 69 ERA+. He might have been the worst pitcher in baseball, who then transformed into one of the best, placing 6th in Cy Young Award voting in 2019, with a 134 ERA+ across 176 innings.
Position Player Depth:
The White Sox were very good at catcher (James McCann, 3.6 WAR) and shortstop (Tim Anderson, 4.2 WAR), and serviceable at second base and centerfield.
Conversely, the right field platoon of Jon Jay and Ryan Cordell was easily the worst in the league.
Overall, their position player group was a bottom-third outfit in MLB.
Starting Pitcher Depth:
Pretty bad. Giolito was the breakout star and Ivan Nova was a league average pitcher but the rest of the rotation descended quickly into madness.
Particular shout-out to Dylan Covey who managed an ERA just a shade under 8 but still was able to convince his manager to send him to the mound in 18 different games.
Relief Pitcher Depth:
Very good as a unit, anchored by Alex Colome and Aaron Bummer.
Did the 2019 White Sox fail to prepare appropriately for the combination of Yoan Moncada and Lucas Giolito?
Not even close. The team was a 62 win embarrassment the year before and Moncada and Giolito came somewhat out of nowhere, despite the heralded prospect status that both had enjoyed. This was a franchise that was very clearly in rebuild mode, and two seasons later, when the White Sox won their division with 93 wins, they still featured Moncada and Giolito, along with wunderkind Luis Robert Jr and mainstays Jose Abreu and Carlos Rodon. Moreover, they increased payroll dramatically as the youngsters matured, adding catcher Yasmani Grandal and starting pitcher Lance Lynn, who both played prominent roles in the division winning season.
***
2000 Milwaukee Brewers (73-89, finished 3rd in NL Central, didn’t qualify for postseason)
Top Hitter: Geoff Jenkins, 4.5 WAR, $282K salary
Top Pitcher: Jeff D’Amico, 5.0 WAR, $175K salary
Combined salaries: 1.3% of team payroll of $35.8M
Injuries:
Jeff D’Amico had a shoulder surgery that cost him all of 1998 and basically all of 1999. He started 2000 on the DL, didn’t appear until May and missed most of June. He was still the team’s best pitcher by far.
Starting pitcher Jamey Wright also began the year on the DL and didn’t make his season debut until late May.
Otherwise, the team appeared to be largely free from significant injuries although the data isn’t very complete/reliable on this.
Summary: Except for the part about their best pitcher only making 23 starts in 2000, the Brewers appeared to have about as good of injury luck as a team can hope for.
Dead Weight:
The Brewers traded for Jamie Navarro before the 2000 season. Navarro was in the final year of a 4 year contract and he was set to make $5M in 2000, or about 14% of the Brewers’ team payroll. He made 5 starts, to the tune of a 14.95 ERA and was released on the final day of April.
Surprising Breakthrough:
The point of this section is to examine if the two best players on the team were projectable. In other words, was there reasonable expectation during the offseason last year that these two would be as good as they were?
In 1999, 24 year old left fielder Geoff Jenkins played 135 games, hit 313/371/564 for a 135 OPS+ and was valued at 4.6 WAR. In 2000, Jenkins played 135 games, hit 303/360/588 for a 137 OPS+ and was valued at 4.5 WAR. To essentially repeat his ’99 season was easily imaginable.
As for Jeff D’Amico, his injury history has already been touched on. His prior seasons (1996 and 1997) were relatively unremarkable. He finished 7th in the ’96 Rookie of the Year voting with a 5.44 ERA. He was only marginally better in 1997. Then the shoulder injury that stole away two full seasons. There was nothing to suggest a breakout campaign in 2000.
Position Player Depth:
Outside of left field, the Brewers weren’t *good* anywhere, although they were solidly competent/average at C/1B/2B/SS/RF.
They were particularly bad at 3rd base (Jose Hernandez) and centerfield (a rapidly aging Marquis Grissom).
Overall, their position player group was a bottom-third outfit in MLB.
Starting Pitcher Depth:
Pretty bad, outside of D’Amico. You need to give your eyes a minute to adjust to the era of steroid-ball, but the staff had an aggregate ERA of 5.05, which includes D’Amico’s masterful 2.66 ERA season. But…an average ERA, adjusted for era and ballpark was somewhere just north of 4.5, so you could squint and see mediocrity. That said, more than half the team’s starts were taken by pitchers who were replacement level or worse.
This is a Reds’ article, ostensibly, so we’ll shout out Jimmy Haynes, who wowed scouts and fans with an unusual accomplishment: 199 innings, 100 walks, 88 strikeouts. The Reds liked what they saw and would sign him a couple of years later.
Relief Pitcher Depth:
10th ranked bullpen in the majors, even despite trading away closer Bob Wickman at the deadline.
Did the 2000 Brewers fail to prepare appropriately for the combination of Geoff Jenkins and Jeff D’Amico?
Let’s start with this. The 1999 Brewers won 74 games. They hadn’t been an above .500 team since 1992. And they clearly couldn’t have seen the breakout season of Jeff D’Amico coming. However, there were a couple of moves that backfired:
They traded their best player (Jeff Cirillo) and an average starting pitcher (Scott Karl) for Jimmy Haynes, Jamey Wright, and Henry Blanco. In doing so, they filled an extra rotation slot but got worse, especially given that three days later they signed Jose Hernandez to man third base. Cirillo had been excellent for three straight years, but was nearing free agency.
They traded Alex Ochoa, a solid hitting 4th outfielder still in his prime, to the Reds for Mark Sweeney, who would be worth 0.0 WAR for the Brewers over the next two years.
What I find notable is that they were budget conscious, and were willing to make difficult decisions (e.g., jettison Cirillo), but didn’t fully commit to a rebuild effort. One can almost hear the echoes of what was whispered around the Reds’ trade deadline “efforts” in 2026: they were willing to move guys but only for “major leaguers”. In sum, they didn’t fail to prepare for D’Amico because no one saw that coming, but there was a general failure to have enough solid players on the roster to take advantage of the surprise breakout. Languishing in no man’s land for years, the Brewers would reach the postseason next in 2008.
***
2008 Chicago White Sox (89-74, finished 1st in AL Central, lost in ALDS to Tampa Bay)
Top Hitter: Carlos Quentin, 5.3 WAR, $400K salary
Top Pitcher: John Danks, 6.4 WAR, $400K salary
Combined salaries: 0.7% of team payroll of $121.2M
Injuries:
3rd baseman Joe Crede lost most of the second half of the season to back injuries. He was having a solid season.
Starting pitcher Jose Contreras tore his Achilles tendon in August, ending what was basically a league average season.
None of the other starting pitchers missed a start all year and the other 8 starting position players all logged more than 500 plate appearances
Summary: The injuries they did suffer were costly, but as a team, this was a season on the fortunate side with respect to missed time.
Dead Weight:
Basically none. I’m tempted to include the fact that the Sox traded for a 38 year old Junior Griffey mid-year, paying several million dollars for the privilege, but he didn’t really hurt the team at all.
Surprising Breakthrough:
The point of this section is to examine if the two best players on the team were projectable. In other words, was there reasonable expectation during the offseason last year that these two would be as good as they were?
Carlos Quentin had been a top 20 prospect in the league, but middling seasons with the Diamondbacks caused them to give up on him, making a trade with the White Sox before the 2008 season. His 5.3 WAR in 2008 represents more than half of his career WAR. 2008 was a surprise to everyone, including Carlos’s mother.
John Danks had been a good prospect, but never cracked the top 50 in the most reputable rankings. In his rookie season of 2007, he struggled across 139 innings to the tune of a 86 ERA+. He did have over 7 K per 9 IP, however, back in a time when that meant something. He had a live lefty arm and was probably seen as projectable by the team, although it would have been folly to expect a 6 WAR season.
Position Player Depth:
Chicago was a good team for reasons almost entirely to do with their pitching. Except for the left field manned by Quentin, the Sox were league average or worse at every single position
That said, they were a league average team hitting wise (102 OPS+), and their collective health meant that they had very few automatic outs in the lineup from day to day. Their worst hitter (Orlando Cabrera) still provided enough value with the glove to be worth 2.6 WAR. There were no stars, but they were solidly professional from top to bottom.
Relative to the rest of the league, they weren’t very good at catcher, first base, or centerfield (Pierzynski, Konerko, Swisher) and the position players ranked in the bottom third of MLB.
Starting Pitcher Depth:
Very good and deep. Danks had the best season, but Mark Buehrle was the established ace and he had a very good year (121 ERA+). Remaining starters Javier Vazquez, Gavin Floyd, and Jose Contreras gave very few games away.
This was the 2nd most valuable rotation in the game.
Relief Pitcher Depth:
Also very good, led by Bobby Jenks and Matt Thornton, each of whom contributed more than 2 WAR to the ledger.
Did the 2008 White Sox fail to prepare appropriately for the combination of Carlos Quentin and John Danks?
No. The 2007 White Sox only won 72 games, but they knew who they were. To wit, four-fifths of the starting rotation and the top two bullpen firemen were exactly the same, year over year. However, there were six position regulars who posted a WAR value below 1 in 2007:
Tadahito Iguchi (2B) was traded before the ’07 season ended, making way for the team to sign Cuban Alexei Ramirez.
Juan Uribe (SS) was demoted to a bench role, although he ended up filling in for the injured Joe Crede in the back half of 2008. Before the 2008 season, the White Sox traded pitcher Jon Garland (who was good!) for Orlando Cabrera.
Josh Fields (3B) played out of happenstance, namely Joe Crede’s injury troubles. Crede was healthier to start 2008 and Fields was sent to the minors.
Scott Podsednik (LF) was released, which made room for the Quentin trade that worked out beautifully.
Jerry Owens (CF) was…well, nothing really happened to him, but the White Sox traded for Nick Swisher so they wouldn’t have to play Owens. Swisher had a bad year in 2008.
Jermaine Dye (RF) stuck around and got just as much playing time. This was probably a function of a highly paid aging ballplayer being untradeable. The White Sox got a bit fortunate that he bounced back in 2008.
All told, not every move was a home run, but I find it fascinating that the White Sox were aggressive in looking to correct so many of their 2007 deficiencies. It can be noted, fairly, that the White Sox were a big payroll team at the time, ranking 4th in MLB in both 2007 and 2008, but spending money and addressing gaps are two separate skill sets and the White Sox were good at both. There’s no way that they saw the success of Quentin and Danks coming, at least not to that magnitude, but they were definitely building a foundation with a high enough floor to take advantage of the surprise breakouts. You could say that they made their own luck, to coin a phrase that has never been used before.
***
2001 Houston Astros (93-69, finished 1st in NL Central, lost in NLDS to Atlanta)
Top Hitter: Lance Berkman, 6.5 WAR, $305K salary
Top Pitcher: Wade Miller, 5.3 WAR, $241K salary
Combined salaries: 0.9% of team payroll of $60.4M
Injuries:
None to speak of, as best as I can find.
Dead Weight:
Jose Lima was paid $6.25M (or more than 10% of the Astros payroll) to throw 53 innings of 7.30 ERA baseball at which point the Astros had seen enough, sending Lima (and plenty of cash) to the Tigers for Dave Mlicki.
Surprising Breakthrough:
The point of this section is to examine if the two best players on the team were projectable. In other words, was there reasonable expectation during the offseason last year that these two would be as good as they were?
Lance Berkman had been a top 20 prospect in the league and in his rookie season in 2000, posted a 949 OPS en route to a 6th place finish in Rookie of the Year voting. I’m sure team management was expecting improvement in year 2, both due to increased playing time and familiarity with the level, but probably didn’t pencil in a 4.5 win improvement.
Wade Miller had been a good prospect, but never cracked the top 50 in the most reputable rankings. In his rookie season of 2000, he struggled across 105 innings to the tune of a 97 ERA+. He did have over 7 K per 9 IP, however, back in a time when that meant something. He had a live arm and was probably seen as projectable by the team, although it would have been folly to expect a 5+ WAR season.
Position Player Depth:
Berkman was the breakout star on an offense that was already stacked. Future Hall of Famers Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio were no longer in their primes but they were still well above average baseball players. Moises Alou was “merely” a future Hall of Very Good candidate and he, too, was in his post-prime-but-still-very-productive phase.
The only spots the team was below average was at catcher, third base, and shortstop (Ausmus, Castilla, Lugo), but only Ausmus could be considered bad.
The overall position player ranking was 7th in MLB.
Starting Pitcher Depth:
The Astros’ rotation was 6th best in the game although they employed a boom-or-bust approach. Youngsters Wade Miller and Roy Oswalt paced the group, with veteran Shane Reynolds also contributing strongly. Those three combined to start roughly half of Houston’s games and the remainder of starts were handled by pitchers who generally ranked as bad or worse.
Relief Pitcher Depth:
The team also had the 6th best bullpen in MLB, led by Billy Wagner and Octavio Dotel.
Did the 2001 Astros fail to prepare appropriately for the combination of Lance Berkman and Wade Miller?
They did not. The Astros were division champs from 1997-99 before a down year in 2000. Their offense was essentially locked down from year to year. Bagwell and Biggio were never leaving and their other best players (Alou and Richard Hidalgo) were also brought back. The team’s main moves were to give Berkman the full time LF spot (supplanting the disappointing Daryle Ward) and to jettison pitcher Chris Holt to make room for Roy Oswalt. Oh, and closer Billy Wagner came back healthy from an injury-riddled 2000.
In short, this was a veteran team with a not-too-distant history of success who identified and gave opportunities to young prospects who had already shown quality at the big league level or, in the case of Oswalt, were near the top of the league prospect rankings.
***
2009 Los Angeles Dodgers (95-67, finished 1st in NL West, lost in NLCS to Philadelphia)
Top Hitter: Matt Kemp, 4.9 WAR, $467K salary
Top Pitcher: Clayton Kershaw, 4.7 WAR, $404K salary
Combined salaries: 0.9% of team payroll of $100.4M
Injuries:
Starting pitcher Hiroki Kuroda had an eventful year, managing an 8-7 record around an April oblique injury and an August concussion caused by a line drive to the head.
Otherwise, the team appeared to largely be healthy.
Dead Weight:
In 2006, Jason Schmidt was an all-star. That offseason, the Dodgers signed him to a three-year, $47 million contract for which they received fewer than 45 innings. He was worth roughly 15% of the Dodgers payroll in 2009 and appeared in four forgettable games.
Surprising Breakthrough:
The point of this section is to examine if the two best players on the team were projectable. In other words, was there reasonable expectation during the offseason last year that these two would be as good as they were?
Matt Kemp put up a 3.9 WAR season in 2008 at age 23, before gradually improving to 4.9 WAR in 2009. There was nothing extraordinarily surprising about his 2009 season.
Baseball Prospectus ranked Clayton Kershaw as the #5 prospect in baseball before the 2008 season. That year, as a 20 year old, Kershaw struck out 100 batters in 107 innings and posted a nearly league average ERA. He was already decent at age 20 and I can’t imagine that a 4.7 WAR season in 2009 was shocking to anyone.
Position Player Depth:
It was a really deep team. The only position LA was below average at was first base, and James Loney only barely fell below league average at that spot.
More to the point, all eight every day starters put up at least 2 WAR in 2009
The overall position player ranking was 3rd in MLB.
Starting Pitcher Depth:
The Dodgers’ rotation was 9th best in the game. While Kershaw was the best on the team, there were very few starts given to pitchers who weren’t at least league average. The team was deep with quality arms, bolstered by a couple of pickups at the trade deadline.
Relief Pitcher Depth:
The team had the 7th best bullpen in MLB, with a young trio of Jonathan Broxton, Ramon Troncoso, and Ronald Belisario anchoring the unit.
Did the 2009 Dodgers fail to prepare appropriately for the combination of Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw?
No, of course not. The Dodgers had been to the postseason in three of the previous five seasons and the addition of Kershaw and the improvement of Kemp was a re-loading of sorts. Additionally, three of the Dodgers’ worst four players in 2008 (Brad Penny, Angel Berroa, Juan Pierre, and Jeff Kent) were not relied on either in practice or theory, as Penny, Berroa, and Kent left in free agency, creating an addition-by-subtraction element to the team’s construction.
******
OK, let’s try to wrap this thing up.
The 2026 Reds got exactly 25% of the required WAR necessary to field a 90 win team from two players who accounted for a combined 1% of the team’s payroll.
They needed 42 WAR to be a “good” team. They achieved 17.6 WAR. Given that WAR replacement level is a 48 win team, we saw the equivalent of a 66 win team on the field this year. That they actually won 75 speaks to a measure of luck and good fortune that I don’t think we’re ready to honestly tackle just yet.
The math, once again, leads to the conclusion. If you need 42 WAR and you get two players contributing 10 WAR off the bat, you need 32 WAR from the remaining 24 roster spots. A bunch of those are back up catchers and bullpen arms and utility infielders that will never contribute much. Said differently, what differentiates the teams who can take advantage of young all-stars and those that can’t are the number of average-to-good players on the team. “How many 2+ WAR players do you have?” is a very useful benchmark.
In 2025, the Reds had 8 such players:
Andrew Abbott fell from 5.4 WAR to 1.4 WAR year over year. This was an extreme regression that centers primarily around a loss of control (his walk rate nearly doubled). The “why” behind this probably requires a deep dive, but this kind of drop off was genuinely surprising.
You could nearly rinse and repeat with Nick Lodolo, dropping from 4.7 WAR to 1.1 WAR, driven by a more-than-doubled walk rate and innings missed due to a recurring blister problem.
Hunter Greene had 4.2 WAR in 2025 and then his arm fell off.
Elly De La Cruz added 2 WAR to his 2025 figure of 3.6.
Brady Singer was a 3 WAR player in 2025 and then sub-replacement in 2026. This time the culprit was a home run rate that nearly doubled.
Tony Santillan contributed 2.9 WAR in 2025. In 2026, he was the kind of pitcher for whom injuries helped limit how bad his stats would be.
TJ Friedl was a 2.4 WAR player in 2025 and then sub-replacement in 2026.
Finally, Nick Martinez contributed 2.2 WAR in 2025 and became a free agent after the season.
One way to look at the above is to lament the bad luck. They brought back seven of the eight quality players from 2025 and all but one got worse. And a lot of them are young! This isn’t a story of older players falling predictably off the cliff.
As it turns out, 8 players at 2+ WAR is exactly the right benchmark. Of this season’s playoff teams, the average number of 2+ WAR players is 8.4.
So, back to the Reds. They had 8, lost one to free agency, but signed Eugenio Suarez, who was over 3 WAR last year. Mission accomplished!
Let’s look at last year’s 8 players through a slightly different lens:
This, in a short little table, basically demonstrates the difference between bWAR and fWAR. fWAR, particularly for pitchers, is calculated on stats that are more projectable. A significant portion of the 2025 Reds success was based on numbers that were highly unlikely to repeat.
Did anyone in the front office see this coming? Who knows. Did the 2026 Reds get unlucky? Yes. Were they designed to fail? Also, yes.
The 2026 Reds had two breakout stars to whom they paid relatively little. They had $140M of additional payroll with which to build around De La Cruz and Burns. They finished in last place, yes. But why?
The team failed to anticipate obvious negative regression. The team had obvious spots of weakness at 2nd base and 3rd base and failed to adequately address either. The team has been bad in the outfield forever and at present do not employ a single outfielder who can be projected to even sniff league average.
The two most relevant teams in the five that I examined earlier are the 2000 Brewers and the 2008 White Sox. The ’00 Brewers were caught in a pattern of trying to not bottom out while not having a discernible plan. Call it “banking on hope”. The ’08 White Sox aggressively addressed their weaknesses from a year before while integrating young talent at the same time. Call it “having a strategy”.
Did the 2026 Reds fail to prepare appropriately for the combination of Elly De La Cruz and Chase Burns?
