Category: Baseball

With the benefit of the first-round bye, the Rays will have an opportunity to set their rotation exactly as they want it for the ALDS. A postseason rotation really only needs to have three true starting pitchers given the abundance of off days within and bookending a series.

The Rays will almost certainly begin their postseason with Drew Rasmussen taking the ball in game one followed by some combination of Freddy Peralta and Nick Martinez in games two and three. Griffin Jax and Ian Seymour make sense as potential bulk options behind the rotation, or they could work in short relief. The rotation seems pretty clear, but the bullpen situation gets a little murky.

We’ll start with what we know: Bryan Baker will be closing games. Kevin Kelly has enjoyed a fantastic 2026 season and will see high-leverage innings. Cam Booser has been lights-out after beginning the season in Durham to refine his cutter shape, and he will also pitch in big spots. Manuel Rodriguez is with the team again after a brief IL stint and has not yet been activated at the time of writing this, but would certainly be on a postseason roster with his high-leverage experience.

So far that puts us at nine pitchers, and the Rays can carry 13. Shane McClanahan has been ruled out of the ALDS, but may return later. Tyler Wells and Garrett Cleavinger are dealing with similar injuries and could be on track for the ALDS. Assuming Wells and Cleavinger are good to go, that fills 11 of the 13 spots.

Here are the options to fill the remaining two bullpen spots:

• Cole Sulser
• Steven Matz
• Casey Legumina
• Ty Johnson
• Brody Hopkins
• Joe Boyle
• Jesse Scholtens
• Jake Woodford
• Mason Englert
• Alex Cook
• Alexander Alberto

Sulser and Matz are a pair of experienced veteran arms who have quietly been lights-out lately. Since returning from the IL, Sulser has filled up the zone and pitched to a 1.29 ERA in seven innings, picking up a save. Matz sat out for a little over a week in August, and has since thrown 11 innings across eight appearances with a 1.59 ERA. Both offer solid and safe middle relief profiles given their strike throwing.

Legumina is another strike thrower who might not blow anyone away with his stuff, but his advanced feel for multiple shapes gives Cash and the Rays a reliable reliever in the middle innings. He has converted all seven of his hold opportunities with the Rays this season with several of his outings lasting multiple innings.

Hopkins and Johnson are a pair of rookies with significant upside. Hopkins combines elite stuff with emerging command and is simply unhittable when he’s in the zone and throwing strikes. He has maintained average strike and zone rates since converting to a relief role, but has yet to see any high-leverage opportunities in the majors. Johnson has already pitched in some key spots in the majors with underlying data that suggests he has been much better than his 4.05 ERA. In his limited time, Johnson has the highest whiff rate on the team and is a nightmare against right-handed hitters – he could be a real weapon in October.

If the Rays wanted to add a multi-inning arm, they could turn to any of Boyle, Scholtens, Woodford or Englert. Boyle has the highest ceiling of this group with plus-plus stuff across the board, but has struggled with command. However, Boyle has recently found a new breaking ball shape that has allowed him to maintain average command over his last month in Durham and could be a real weapon in October. A Rays home-field advantage would also give opposing teams limited time to train on Trajekt (a pitch replication system that simulates almost any pitcher’s release and shapes) against his new pitch. Scholtens and Englert represent safer, strike-throwing profiles with each having solid feel for their plus offspeed pitches. They’re fairly platoon-neutral and could help navigate a lineup one time through before handing the ball over to the leverage relievers.

Woodford is interesting because he has some incredibly unique stuff along with over 250 innings of major-league innings. His offspeed pitch fits the Rays philosophy this season very well, and he throws plenty of strikes to work in a bulk role. It may be difficult to prepare for someone as unique as him, so that could give Woodford an advantage when pitching at home.

Cook and Alberto appear to be on the outside looking in, but still represent significant upside. Cook has a strong track record of throwing strikes, and his cut-ride fastball comes in from a low release that makes 95-96mph look even faster. His arsenal is platoon-neutral, so he could be a potential high-leverage option some day. Cook has spent some time in the majors in low-leverage as a rookie. Alberto is a dark horse, and that could work in his favor as opposing teams would be unfamiliar with him. He’s not on the 40-man roster so there would need to be some maneuvering to get him on a playoff roster, but it’s possible. Alberto has one of the most unique releases in baseball thanks to his 6’8 frame and low three-quarter slot with plus extension. His upper 90s fastball has touched 100 in the past, and it’s cutter shape is incredibly difficult to square-up from both sides of the plate. He has been able to throw strikes at an average or better rate all season while still maintaining plus whiff rates. In addition to his ability to miss bats, Alberto has a career ground ball rate around 60% in the minor leagues and has only allowed seven home runs in over 230 innings. Unfortunately, five of those have come in Triple-A this season, but the run environment is relatively high-scoring and the ball really travels in those small International League parks.

There are lots of names in consideration for those final two bullpen spots in the ALDS, and I think the Rays would lean towards the safe, experienced arms in Sulser and Matz. They both have enough in the tank to get big outs in the postseason, and the clubhouse presence of the veterans on this roster is a key reason for the team’s success this year. However, if there are more injuries or Wells and Cleavinger aren’t ready in time, we could see some high-upside guys work their way into the postseason bullpen. Here’s how I expect we’ll see the Rays lineup their starting pitching:

• Rasmussen starts game one; he has flat out been their best starter this season.
• Peralta starts game two; he has been great with the Rays after making some adjustments, and his fastball-offspeed combo plays exceptionally well in high-drag environment in the Trop.
• Martinez starts game three; he could start game two, but I think the benefit of Peralta at the Trop along with Martinez’s mentality going into a hostile road environment makes him an ideal game three starter.
• Jax and Seymour work in tandem in game four; they’re the top two whiff leaders among Rays starters, and they offer a nice contrast in slots and styles that make it difficult to plan a lineup against. The Rays could also opt to go with Ras here on four-days rest.
• Rasmussen; should we see a fifth game, Rasmussen likely gets the ball, but it would also be an all-hands-on-deck approach. Everyone would likely be available to pitch – including Peralta and Martinez.

Here’s how I expect the bullpen to fill out:

• Baker
• Kelly
• Booser
• Rodriguez
• Wells
• Cleavinger
• Sulser
• Matz

If Wells or Cleavinger aren’t ready, I think Hopkins and Johnson would fill in those spots. Next up to fill any spots due to injury would be (in no particular order): Legumina, Boyle, Scholtens, Woodford. Englert, Cook, and Alberto. There’s a clear surplus of pitching talent and not enough roster spots. Some really talented players will inevitably get left off, but that’s a nice problem for the Rays to have as they look to make some noise in October.

The San Francisco Giants’ wRC+, if you take out March/April, the first 14 days of May, and all of August, was #2 in baseball (112) behind only the Washington Nationals and tied with the Dodgers, Brewers, and Cubs. Sure, they were just 10th in runs, but when the weighted stats are on your side, you’ve gotta use ‘em! Anyway, all that to say that there was a moment in time this season when the Giants had a great lineup. We know their pitching was an ingrown hair that would’ve exploded in October, but how might their bats have stacked up against the field had they managed to make it to the postseason?

This pointless exercise is inspired by an article on Baseball Savant by David Adler that went up last week titled, “9 stats that will loom large this October.” The Giants do seem to have made their lineup meaningfully competitive in the modern landscape.

Occasionally, anyway.

And just going off the eyes & ears tests (mainly, the looks and sounds of Devers & Eldridge homers).

Statistically, they’re 23rd in runs scored this season and 21st in runs scored over the past five seasons combined. But this season they were (briefly) intriguing enough to spark my imagination! Rafael Devers swaying the outcome of a short series with his bat? Bryce Eldridge and Jonah Cox doing things, too? And what if Matt Chapman and Willy Adames were in the mix? What might a healthy lineup do?

Let’s go through the 9 stats that Adler spotlights.

Bat speed + fast swing rates

This is a highlight of Atlanta’s lineup, with Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris II, and Matt Olson all averaging bat speeds of 74.8 mph to 75.8 mph. That puts them all in MLB’s top 50, though none land in the top 20. Bat speed isn’t the be all end all, but it’s worth noting that the top 20 features a lot of great hitters:

What does this have to do with the Giants? Well, to Adler’s point, the key hitters in Atlanta’s lineup are all within the top 50 in terms of bat speed. No other team has five players in the top 50. The Dodgers have 1. The Giants have 0. But the Giants do occupy a lot of slots on the next tier (or four if you want to count Heliot Ramos):

• Bryce Eldridge, 73.4 mph
• (Heliot Ramos, 72.7 mph)
• Casey Schmitt, 72.5 mph
• Willy Adames, 72.3 mph

That’s pretty good! They’re in good company. Bat speed is required to counteract the increased velocities featured in the postseason. But when it comes to fast swing rate — defined as how often their swing is 75+ mph — the Giants don’t measure up. As a team, they have the fourth-lowest rate in the sport (20%). Atlanta is #1 (33.5%). Meaningfully, though, the three “worse” teams than the Giants: Cubs (19.4%), Dodgers (17.6%), and Guardians (16%). The Dodgers and Cubs seem to be doing just fine, offensively, so why should fast swing matter? Per MLB.com,

Similarly to how a hard-hit ball is one with 95 MPH+ of exit velocity as that’s where it begins to “matter,” 75 MPH of swing speed is where you see per-swing production reach league-average, with gains then accruing as swing speed increases (to a point). The difference between a hard swing and any slower swing that did not reach 75 MPH was considerable – there is great value in swinging harder.

Fast swing

.307 BA // .603 SLG // .389 wOBA // 52% hard-hit rate // +0.6 run value per 100

Not a fast swing

.246 BA // .369 SLG // .266 wOBA // 35% hard-hit rate // -3.2 run value per 100

Not referenced in Adler’s article is a look at the quality of contact. The Dodgers lead the sport in Squared-Up contact rate (34.6%). The Giants are #4 (33.4%). Squared-Up is something that only data science could quantify:

A swing’s squared-up rate tells us how much of the highest possible exit velocity available (based on the physics related to the swing speed and pitch speed) a batter was able to obtain – it is, at its simplest, how much exit velocity did you get as a share of how much exit velocity was possible based on your swing speed and the swing of the pitch.

[…]

For Statcast purposes, any swing that is at least 80% squared up is considered to have been “a squared-up swing.”

That means about 1/3 of the time, the Giants attained at least 80% of the highest possible exit velocity on contact. Combined with their lower fast swing rates, you can see how much pitching they’d need to be competitive, as that combo suggests lots of strikeouts and runs scored through dingers.

Lineup diversity

In this section, Adler points out that the Rays’ diverse lineup makes them harder to handle by highlighting their extremes: Junior Caminero’s power and Chandler Simpson’s contact and speed. He has a great image of the two players’ Statcast summary pages with the red and blue bars interlocking, or complimenting each other. The Giants don’t quite have that (because those two players are quite extreme), but here’s the closest they come:

He concludes, “Home runs matter a lot in October, but so does having different types of hitters in your lineup. The Rays can beat you with a bloop or a blast.” Theoretically, the Giants could have done that, too.

Defense is a big difference maker

The third point is that the Cubs’ defense stands out and makes them unique in the playoff field.

And the 2026 Cubs’ advantage in the field is like none we’ve seen since Statcast started tracking. They’ve now prevented more runs with their defense than any team of the last 10 years.

Highest team Fielding Run Value, Statcast era 

• 2026 Cubs: +70 runs prevented
• 2018 D-backs: +64 runs prevented
• 2022 Yankees: +58 runs prevented
• 2019 Guardians: +58 runs prevented
• 2022 Astros: +52 runs prevented
• 2019 D-backs: +52 runs prevented
• 2024 Blue Jays: +50 runs prevented

The highest-rated Giants team on this list is the 2023 squad with a +28, good enough for 39th in the Statcast era. You can thank Patrick Bailey and Thairo Estrada for that (and a little bit Brandon Crawford).

The 2026 Giants are 24th in MLB with a -18. The only playoff team in the bottom third is the Philadelphia Phillies (-15, 23rd). So, here’s where the defense part of the “playing winning baseball with pitching and defense” shows up as a huge drag on the Giants.

Wait, we’re not talking about pitching

Okay, 4 of the 9 categories are about pitching. Nobody wants to talk about the Giants pitching or imagine what it would’ve been like had this group stayed healthy and somehow made it into the playoffs. But, Adler’s emphasis is on unique qualities, the big pitches that can swing a short series. He talks about Skubal’s dominant changeup and how it has been one of the best secondary pitches in the game over the past two postseasons (and past three seasons). How Jacob Misioroski’s fastball velocity as a starter should be a difference maker (“In the regular season, two out of every three fastballs Misiorowski throws are 100 mph or faster. Over 40% are 101 mph or faster. Over 20% are 102 mph or faster. Almost 10% are 103 mph or faster.“). The Yankees’ fastballs have different shapes and movements from pitcher to pitcher, and while that doesn’t scream dominance like Misiorowski’s velo, it’s sort of like the Caminero-Simpson comp above, where there’s simply quality extremes that can be hard to stop. And, finally, he mentions how dominant the Padres’ bullpen has been all season.

[By] Statcast’s expected ERA metric, which takes into account a pitcher’s quality of contact allowed, strikeouts and walks, the Padres have three top-10 pitchers: Bradgley Rodriguez (10th), Adrian Morejon (seventh) and, of course, Mason Miller (first).

And talks about Miller’s dominant, unhittable slider.

My post is about the lineup, so I’ll just point out that not even Logan Webb’s arsenal ranks highly — and that’s with removing 2026 from the filter. They don’t have a Skubal, a Mis, or intriguing pitch design with multiple fastball types. In fact, one of the questions in-season was whether or not the rotation of Webb-Landen Roupp-Trevor McDonald simply let hitters become comfortable facing a specific arsenal. And the Giants reliever corps does seem to be a lot of sinker-slider guys, too.

The Giants plainly don’t matchup in the pitching area, at least for this year. They’ve had a lot of pitching injuries and been mostly bad when they were healthy, but I’m sure the front office feels pretty good about their pitching plan and acquisition model going forward, because it’s their plan.

The importance of catcher defense

Adler emphasizes Adley Rutschman’s game-changing defense (+11 Catching/Fielding Runs) but also mentions how critical his excellent ABS challenge “ability” could be in a playoff series, getting strikeouts in key situations. Would a healthy Giants team with Patrick Bailey been a big deal? Well… actually… while Bailey’s remains good (+6 Catching/Fielding Runs), his ABS skills aren’t special: 55% success rate, but also — and I’m not sure what this stat actually means, but it’s what Adler sorts the leaderboard by — just 39th in something called Net Overturns vs. Expected. Daniel Susac and Andrew Knizner measure as good or even slightly better than Bailey.

The power of power

Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are significant power threats in the Phillies’ lineup because they’re among the best hitters against fastballs.

Highest batting run value vs. fastballs, 2026

1. Yordan Alvarez: +32 runs created
2. Kyle Schwarber: +30 runs created (27 HR, most in MLB)
3. Bryce Harper: +28 runs created (18 HR) 
4. Willson Contreras: +25 runs created
5. Ben Rice: +23 runs created

They can slug velo, too. Against fastballs 97 mph or faster this season, Harper is slugging .523 with three home runs. Schwarber is slugging .525 with six homers, the most of any hitter.

Rafael Devers cracks the top 10 with a +20 (8th as of this writing). Bryce Eldridge is +11 and ranked in the forties and with an interesting group of other +11s: Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, Nick Kurtz, Seiya Suzuki, and Sal Stewart.

Against 97+, Devers slugged .576 with 4 homers while Eldridge slugged .630 with a pair of homers. And just because you deserve something nice, here are both of them:

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So, it’s not a stretch to say that the Giants had the offensive firepower to compete in the 2026 MLB postseason… if they’d stayed healthy. And if they’d had the pitching and defense to get them there. You can see the contours of what a successful version of this roster could be. Now it’s up to Zack & Buster to compliment its strengths with the right mix and the right coaching before those strengths age out.

Pete Crow-Armstrong stole his 40th base of the season Thursday, Sept. 24, and with it, he did something no one has ever done wearing a Cubs uniform.

With the 40 steals and 45 home runs, Crow-Armstrong joined MLB's 40-40 club.

He becomes the seventh MLB player to steal 40 bases and hit 40 home runs in the same season. Jose Canseco was the first to get there in 1988, Barry Bonds did it in 1996, Alex Rodriguez in 1998, Alfonso Soriano in 2006, Ronald Acuna Jr. in 2023 and Shohei Ohtani in 2024, when he completely blew past it and became baseball's first 50-50 player.

Three of those members of the 40-40 club also won the MVP award that season. Crow-Armstrong is certainly the leader in the clubhouse for the NL's version of that award as well.

It took him longer than it probably should have.

Crow-Armstrong had 36 steals by Sept. 8, including two in a game gainst the Milwaukee Brewers on Sept. 7, then didn't add another in the next four games before swiping his 37th of the season against the Atlanta Braves on Sept. 14. It wasn't that he stopped trying, but pitchers stopped giving him much to run on. He got there anyway with three games to spare.

The Cubs got Crow-Armstrong from the New York Mets in 2021, in a trade-deadline deal that sent Javier Baez and Trevor Williams to New York. Mets fans have had years to regret it. PCA debuted in September 2023, made his first All-Star team last year and won a Gold Glove in center field, and went 30-30 for the second consecutive season before doing this.

To be fair, nobody really saw this coming when the trade happened.

Crow-Armstrong was a top defensive prospect, but his bat was always in question. He has improved his bat speed, including nearly two ticks this year from 2025. He changed his batting stance, lowering his hands and shortened his swing path as he stood closer to the plate to change how pitchers attack him.

He also improved in the strike zone. His walk rate has nearly tripled from 4.5% to 11.5% and his chase rate on pitches out of the zone dropped from 41.7% to under 34%.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Cubs star Pete Crow-Armstrong joins MLB's elite 40-40 club

#NotDeadYet The Padres beating the Dodgers did put a cramp into the chances of beating them. But our playoff odds still ticked up fractionally, to 8.1%, thanks to the Phillies losing again – and, of course, the victory over the Rockies. We go into today, with the Padres and Cubs both having a magic number of 1, so a win for them OR a loss by the D-backs, would clinch them a wild-card spot. The Phillies sit at 2 for their number, so would need both results to go in their favor to eliminate us. As ever, we would like all three teams to lose, but the most important thing remains the D-backs continuing to take care of their own business.

More scoreboard watching in order eventually, though we are the first game to get under way today. The Phillies game against the Brewers has its first pitch scheduled for 3:05 pm, Arizona time. Meawhile, the Padres-Dodgers game will not get under way until 7:10 pm. So we may not know our fate until the end of the day. Though if Arizona don’t win, things could be over with a Phillies victory. Eduardo Rodriguez has the task of ensuring the D-backs keep rolling. He faced the Rockies twice in May, and went 0-1 despite pitching well enough, allowing three earned runs (all at Coors) over 12.1 innings. Here’s to his first W of the year.

It’s been a tough year for the Colorado Rockies in their home ballpark. After another loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks last night, the Rockies are 32-48 at home this season and are 131-191 overall since the start of the 2023 season.

The obvious struggles at home have been the pitching. The Rockies have a 5.75 ERA at home, which isn’t the worst in baseball thanks to the Athletics, but that pertains to the pitching staff as a whole. The starting pitching has a 6.46 ERA at Coors Field this season, by far the worst in baseball. The first inning has also been a nightmare, where the Rockies rotation owns a 7.41 ERA, over a full run higher than the next team.

Avoiding the sweep seems like a tall task.

Tanner Gordon (1-5, 6.01 ERA) will make the start for the Rockies. Coors Field has been a struggle for Gordon this season, where he owns an 8.20 ERA in 12 appearances, including seven starts. In 56 innings, he has allowed 15 home runs and given up 82 total hits. He hasn’t had much trouble in the first inning alone, but through the first three innings, he has a 7.71 ERA. He struggled in his last outing against the San Diego Padres, allowing seven runs on 10 hits over three innings of work. In September, Gordon has a 12.34 ERA in 11.2 innings, failing to throw five complete innings and giving up at least eight hits in each start. Gordon throws a lot of strikes, which is good, but oftentimes to the point where he becomes too hittable over the plate.

In three career starts against Arizona, Gordon has a 13.94 ERA in 10.1 innings. He made two starts in 2025, allowing 13 runs on 17 hits over 9.2 innings with eight strikeouts and a walk. He has strikeout potential, but a gritty team like the Diamondbacks that will take advantage of pitches over the zone has been an issue he’ll have to fight against today.

Eduardo Rodriguez (15-7, 2.89 ERA) starts for Arizona, trying to end his regular season on a high note. Rodriguez has had an incredible bounce-back year, serving as the rock of the Diamondbacks rotation amid the injuries and underperformance of other players. He has been a workhorse, tossing 183.2 innings, the second-most in a season of his career. In his last start, Rodriguez gave up seven runs on five hits over 5.1 innings against the New York Yankees. His command has been shaky all season, but the strikeout totals have remained strong to mitigate the danger for the most part.

He last faced the Rockies on May 21 when he threw seven shutout innings, allowing just four hits while striking out four against one walk. In his career against the Rockies, he’s 3-1 with a 4.21 ERA over eight starts, while boasting a 3.42 ERA over four career starts at Coors Field.

First Pitch: 1:10pm MT

TV: Rockies.TV

Radio: KOA 850 AM/94.1 FM; KNRV 1150 (Spanish)

Diamondbacks SB Nation: AZ Snake Pit

Lineups:

Eyes on today. pic.twitter.com/jgBH2ZHik4

— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) September 24, 2026

Last one at home 🥲 pic.twitter.com/8k73PZkWeZ

— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) September 24, 2026

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On Tuesday, the Detroit Tigers announced that starting catcher Dillon Dingler was the recipient of the team’s 2026 Heart and Hustle award. There couldn’t be a more deserving candidate. Dingler put the team on his back for months in the middle of the season, playing everyday and producing as the best catcher in baseball on both sides of the ball. His defense, his leadership, his bat, and the extra workload he shouldered are all to his credit. He ran out of gas in mid-August and it’s been really rough ever since, but it was still a very successful season for the Tigers primary backstop.

The problem is how to project him going forward. Clearly he hasn’t fully unlocked some new level at the plate where we should expect greatness like we saw in June and July. He’s likely going to end up with basically the same run production he had in 2025 when he posted a 108 wRC+. Currently, he’s at 109 wRC+ for 2026, and that’s despite posting back-to-back months below a 50 wRC+ mark to close out the season. After hitting a 4.1 fWAR mark last year, he’s currently at 5.0 fWAR even in 2026, ranking him the 14th most valuable position player in baseball. Per Baseball Reference, those marks are lower at 3.2 rWAR for 2025, and 4.2 rWAR this season, but B-Ref doesn’t use Statcast’s detailed catching metrics and weighs catcher defense a little lighter as a result.

Either way, the key to Dingler was always his defensive ability. He grades out as the most valuable defensive catcher, and one of most valuable defenders at any position in baseball. Per Statcast, Dingler is fifth in blocks above average with 11. He and the Blue Jays’ Brandon Valenzuela are tied for the lead in framing with eight runs saved. In throwing and pop time he remains near the top of the leaderboard firmly in plus territory. He draws good to elite grades in all elements of the catching position.

This was the reputation when Dingler made his way slowly through the minor leagues before debuting in August of 2024, four years after he was drafted out of Ohio State in 2020 with the first pick in the second round of the amateur draft. Dingler was always an elite catcher in the minor leagues. His offensive production was the more difficult part of the equation. He spent parts of three seasons stuck in Double-A Erie, slowly cutting down his strikeouts, and finally in 2024 at the Triple-A level, he posted a strikeout rate of 20.3 percent with a walk rate of 10 percent, and finally looked ready to go. He didn’t hit the ground running after taking over from Carson Kelly, who was traded to the Texas Rangers at the 2024 trade deadline, but his two full seasons at the major league level now show him as an above average hitting catcher who is one of the top defenders in the league.

In 2026, he started out with pretty typical production, but in June and July, he went nuts, and he did it by massively improving his production against sliders. Sliders in particular have always given him trouble, while he’s feasted more on sinkers and north-south offspeed pitches like splitters or straight changeups. This year it was offspeed stuff that really gave him trouble. Left-handers with good changeups were a problem for him all year long.

What’s particularly notable about this, is that improvement against the slider, and struggles with changeups and splitters, meant that his production was a lot better against right-handed pitching. Dingler currently holds a 129 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, which is outstanding, but just a meager 66 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season. Lefties who can spot sinkers away and occasionally back foot a breaking ball, can otherwise lean on their offspeed pitch and tie him up this season. That’s a complete reversal of his splits from 2025, when he mauled lefties for a 169 wRC+ and managed just an 89 wRC+ mark against right-handed pitching.

Dingler made some adjustments to his setup that might explain the increased production against right-handed pitching, particularly against sliders. He started setting up in an open stance, and then using his leg kick, which is basically the same both seasons, to get himself back into a more neutral position with his shoulders and hips square. He also stopped laying off his barrel over his shoulder, and is getting the bat into a more vertical position right before he starts to load his hands. The stance changed helped him keep from flying open against right-handers, which always had left him pretty vulnerable to their sliders. Instead, he preset himself open in his initial stance, and then used his leg kick to rotate back into a fully loaded but more neutral, squared off position at pitch release.

The change to his barrel angle wasn’t major, but presumably by keeping the bat more vertical rather than laid off over his right shoulder, he was able to get the barrel down to the zone earlier and catch more balls with loft, producing the huge surge in power we saw for much of the season. That might explain his improved ability to hammer sliders and the occasional changeup even when they were below the zone. In fact, during his red hot stretch in June and July, he often appeared to be hunting sliders down, knowing he was crushing those pitches with good loft and doing a ton of damage.

So what went wrong? There really isn’t a simple answer other than fatigue, but while that might explain a month long slump, by now you’d expect things to be coming around. Still he has played a lot. Even with AJ Hinch giving him more rest as Eduardo Valencia has settled in, Dingler is still going to finish with 143 or 144 games played this year, assuming one day off in the final series against Pittsburgh. He appeared in 126 games in 2025. He currently has 594 plate appearances compared to 469 in 2025. And yet, he’ll actually finish the season having caught less games than in 2025. His bat was so needed in their lineup after their collapse in May, that Dingler picked up a lot of extra shifts as the designated hitter on days off from behind the plate. Of course, there’s still plenty of work on a DH day, and that lack of full days off certainly could have caught up to him in August.

Take a look at Dingler’s pitch chart for his extra base hits this season. Below, you’ll see the same chart from 2025. He was clearly emphasizing hunting pitches down this year and doing a lot more damage on them, whereas he had a little more neutral bias in his pitch chart in 2025. The stance and barrel angle adjustments played a part as well, but the results indicate clear intent to hunt the ball down in the zone or even below it if necessary, while letting the high fastballs go by. This worked until August, and perhaps by then his legs were just gassed. Tired legs are stiff legs, and that ability to sink into his legs and leverage these lower pitches into the air likely suffered for it.

So, should we just expect that a better rested Dingler will get back to destroying the baseball in 2027?

Well, I think we can expect above average production again, but the fact is that Dingler is a pretty streaky hitter and will remain so without some amazing improvement in his plate discipline. He’ll need to readjust to the adjustments pitchers made to him after months of getting torched. Beyond that, players who chase a lot and don’t walk much just tend to be more erratic in their production, and plate discipline has always been a bit of a problem for Dingler. His walk rate in 2024 was a miserable 3.9 percent. In 2025 it was 4.9 percent, and in 2026 he raised it a bit further to 5.6 percent, but this is still roughly two percent lower than league average. At least he’s trending in the right direction.

Here’s his production by month. Obviously the highs and lows are somewhat BABIP dependent. It’s not as though he’s starting striking out a crazy amount either, though those numbers have certainly trended the wrong way. A combination of bad luck and fewer hard hit balls in the air is to blame for his production crumbling in early August, and it hasn’t come around in September despite playing a little less.

Month	PA	wRC+	K%	BB%	OBP	BABIP
March/Apr	106	124	17.9	6.6	0.327	0.261
May	110	107	24.9	11.8	0.300	0.219
June	113	175	21.2	2.7	0.354	0.355
July	93	138	23.7	3.2	0.355	0.345
August	113	45	25.7	5.3	0.239	0.208
September	63	40	25.4	3.2	0.222	0.250

As the low walk rates after May indicates, Dingler’s chase rates, or O-Swing percentage, remain on the high side. In 2024, he chased 36.7 percent of the time. In 2025 he cut that to a more palatable 30.2 percent, but then reverted back somewhat in 2026 to 33.7 percent. League average this year was 32.9 percent, so he’s not a disaster in this regard, but he strikes out more than average, and walks less than average, so there is certainly room for improvement. We’re probably not going to see that though. Instead, recently having turned 28 years old, this is just who Dillon Dingler is as a hitter. He’s going to have stretches where he’s chasing too much and caught between hard and soft stuff, and he’ll have runs where he’s a dominant hitter doing a lot of damage because he does make plenty of hard contact despite the strikeouts. There’s no need for more, because Dingler is more than enough already.

Dingler’s value is tied directly to his skills behind the plate, and the Tigers need to put themselves in positions where they aren’t riding an elite defensive catcher into the ground because they need maximum offensive production out of him too. That’s only going to become more relevant as he nears 30.

His work ethic, intelligence, and leadership all draw rave reviews from his coaches and teammates, leading to Dingler being voted the Tigers’ Heart and Hustle award winner this season. He’s going to give them everything he’s got, and this year they may have just drained the tank long before the season neared its endpoint. Pushing for more, especially as he’s into his late 20’s, is a bad idea. The Tigers have a lot of bats without a real defensive home. Sorting out that group and getting the most offense possible out of them is a necessity so that Dingler can just do what he does best, and catch as many games as possible.

Despite the collapse in August and September, it’s been an outstanding overall season for Dillon Dingler. He’ll finish the season as one of the top 20 position players in the game. Between him, Kevin McGonigle, Riley Greene, and now Max Clark, the Tigers look like they’ve got more than enough high end talent to get back to contention next year from an offensive perspective. The problem is getting enough out of the other positions on the field to balance out the lineup and the team’s defensive needs. Sort the rest of the roster out, and just let Dillon Dingler be Dillon Dingler next year. The Tigers, and his longer term career outlook, will be better for it.

The Yankees were officially eliminated from the AL East title race by the Rays’ win in the second game of the doubleheader on Tuesday. They managed to temporarily stave off elimination thanks to a dominant performance by Carlos Rodón in the first game of the day’s twin billing. With eight scoreless innings, he equalled his longest outing in a Yankees uniform to lower his season ERA to a sterling 2.67. Given the gravity of the performance and the game, it was a no-brainer to select Rodón for our Sequence of the Week.

We join Rodón facing Liam Hicks to lead off the top of the second. With one of MLB’s best run suppressors in Nick Martinez on the mound for the Rays, the task ahead of Rodón is a tough one. Hicks has proven an inspired pickup from the Marlins by the Rays at the deadline, batting .305 with a 143 wRC+ in 123 plate appearances since making the switch from the Atlantic Coast to the Gulf Coast, which explains why the catcher is batting cleanup for Tampa Bay.

Rodón starts Hicks with a first pitch four-seamer at 93 mph, Ali Sánchez setting a target low and away.

Rodón nails his spot with this fastball, painting the corner for called strike one. Hicks must be looking for something on the inner half, because he watches it go by without a thought of offering.

It appears Rodón is satisfied with the way that pitch felt coming out of the hand, because he goes right back to that pitch-location combo.

Same pitch, even better execution. Rodón paints the bottom edge of the zone with this 93 mph four-seamer for strike two called. It’s obvious at this point that Hicks is hunting something he can pull given the bat has not left his shoulder, and this is the last pitch you want to be trying to get out in front of.

At this point, Hicks has to defend that corner of the strike zone. Establishing the four-seamer for called strikes there has Hicks perfectly set up for the wipeout slider down and away out of the zone as he’s now forced to look away.

It’s the right idea but just without the execution to match. Rodón pulls this slider a hair, bouncing it beyond home plate for ball one. It looks like a ball low out of the hand, making for a pretty easy take from Hicks.

Rodón is still in the driver’s seat with the count 1-2. He’d be well within his rights to try another slider low and away, this time trying to execute it closer to the zone. However, he elects to go back to the four-seamer, if not for the strikeout then to set up a future slider.

Even though Rodón fails to elevate this four-seamer where he wants it and ends up leaving it in a pretty dangerous place, the 19 inches of induced vertical break keep the pitch above Hicks’ barrel, leading to a foul ball rather than a ball in play. What’s more, as we are about to see, this fastball is the perfect setup pitch for a chase slider.

By continuing to prove that he can land his four-seamer on the outer edge of the zone, Rodón keeps the door open for Hicks to chase a slider.

Rodón unleashes a dandy, this slider looking like a strike out of the hand before falling off the table for the swinging strikeout. This kind of slider is so tough to lay off because it remains over the plate for the entire journey toward home, the sharp downward movement carrying it into an unhittable location. Rodón can thank the prior four-seamer for the outcome of this slider.

Carlos Rodón four-seamer, slider overlay pic.twitter.com/QOuMJJe6U6

— Peter Brody (@PBrods7) September 24, 2026

Look at the way the slider and the four-seamer that immediately preceded it look exactly the same coming out of Rodón’s hand. Rodón landing that four-seamer where he did set a perfect target for him to tunnel the subsequent slider. Hicks really never had a chance at distinguishing the two pitches from each other and goes down with a weak hack.

Here’s the full sequence:

Rodón is hitting his stride just in time for the playoffs. Over his last eight starts he has a 1.67 ERA with less than one home run allowed per nine, allowing two or fewer runs in all eight of those appearances. He really can’t do much more when it comes to making a case for the postseason rotation. The competition is fierce, with Cy Young frontunner Cam Schlittler starting early on and Aaron Boone looking likely to pick 2024 ace Gerrit Cole and 2025 ace Max Fried for the two other Wild Card Series starts. Even with Rodón’s recent excellence, he could be out of luck unless they advance. Still, Rodón has certainly earned the opportunity and is someone I would absolutely feel confident handing the ball.

We’ve written a lot about Rodón’s evolution as a starting pitcher to being a more well-rounded complete package thanks to the mastery of changeup and sinker. I certainly do not want to downplay this transformation and how key it is for his longevity. However, this outing was something of a throwback start for Rodón — a glimpse of the peak version from his days in Chicago and San Francisco. He whiffed over 30-percent of batters on his four-seamer and over 40-percent on his slider, that deadly pitch pairing the hallmark of his earlier years. This AB in particular was vintage Rodón, with each four-seamer exhibiting at least 19 inches of induced vertical break — well above the threshold that is considered elite — and his slider dropping two inches more than its season average. If he can hold onto the feel of this start, the Yankees will have a real weapon in the playoffs, be that out of the rotation or the bullpen.

It’s hard to believe, but today marks the final home game of the regular season for the Atlanta Braves. Where does the time go?

For Atlanta, it will be trade deadline acquisition extraordinaire Tyler Mahle who makes his final tune up start of the season before (presumably) pitching game two of the National League Wild Card Round next week.

Mahle has been incredible since the trade in early August, making eight starts with a 1.28 ERA, 2.85 FIP and 3.27 xFIP. He’s done a tremendous job of keeping the ball in and around the strike zone with 44 strikeouts and just seven walks over 49 innings, and he’s limited hard contact with just four batters hitting a baseball over the fence since joining the Braves. Mahle’s run of excellence extends to even before the trade; since returning from an injury on June 24, the veteran righty owns a 2.37 ERA, 3.19 FIP and 3.60 xFIP over 15 starts. As a pending free agent, Mahle has made himself some serious money over the past three months. We’ll see if his future involves Atlanta.

The Reds will counter with Brady Singer, who has had a dreadful season with Cincinnati. The 30-year-old righty has career-worst numbers across the board (or pretty close to it) with a 5.67 ERA, 5.55 FIP and 4.67 xFIP. His biggest issue is the home run ball, where he has surrendered an astounding 31 of them in 154 innings. We’ll see if the Braves bats, which have been pretty lifeless in the series so far, can get to Singer on Thursday night.

First pitch from Truist Park is set for 7:15 p.m. ET. In addition to all the usual places to watch and listen to the game, it will also be broadcast on Fox Sports 1.

With a playoff spot on the line, the White Sox are desperate for a win and to finish off the Royals for good in this midday matchup.

David Sandlin is on the mound for the White Sox. Ideally, he can eat some innings for the overtaxed bullpen, since Will Venable is busy setting them up to fail in the opener role. My two favorite Italians are at the top of the lineup, with Sam Antonacci leading off and Kyle Teel batting second and catching. Andrew Benintendi will DH, batting fifth.

Randy Dobnak (3-4, 3.08 ERA) will get the start for the Royals. We’ll see their usual lineup and hope the likes of Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino won’t drill our pitching again today.

Grab some lunch and mute your work email, because first pitch is at 1:10 p.m. CT. You can watch on CHSN or listen on ESPN Chicago 1000.

New York Mets @ Texas Rangers

Thursday, September 24, 2026, 1:35 PM CDT (105.3 The Fan / Rangers Sports Network)

The Shed

LHP Zac Thornton vs. RHP Kumar Rocker

Go Rangers!

Mets lineup

Francisco Lindor – SS
Juan Soto – DH
Bo Bichette – 3B
Carson Benge – RF
Brett Baty – 1B
Marcus Semien – 2B
A.J. Ewing – CF
Luis Torrens – C
Nick Morabito – LF

SP: Zac Thornton (LHP)

Rangers lineup

Justin Foscue – 2B
Corey Seager – SS
Josh Jung – 3B
Jake Burger – 1B
Brandon Nimmo – RF
Wyatt Langford – LF
Ezequiel Duran – CF
Elias Díaz – C
Danny Jansen – DH

SP: Kumar Rocker (RHP)

Broadcast info

First pitch: 2:35 PM EDT
TV: SNY
Radio: Audacy Mets Radio WHSQ 880AM, Audacy App, 92.3 HD2

When Steve Cohen joined the Mets’ broadcast booth during Saturday afternoon’s game against the Phillies, he talked about trying to “add certain voices into the front office” for 2027. Five days later, the Mets’ plans appear to be in motion.

After a report yesterday from Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that the Mets were “moving toward” adding Derek Falvey to their front office, the organization today officially announced Falvey as senior advisor of baseball operations. The Mets also promoted Kris Gross to assistant general manager of scouting.

Falvey had been the president of baseball operations for the Minnesota Twins since November of 2019. He worked with Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns from 2011-12, when the two were co-directors of baseball operations in Cleveland.

“I am excited to join the New York Mets and become part of a franchise that means so much to so many people,” said Falvey via a Mets press release. “Throughout my conversations with the organization, what stood out were the high expectations and the commitment to winning at every level. What I’ve always loved most about this game is being part of a team, and I look forward to bringing my experiences and contributing to this group in any way I can. I want to thank Steve and Alex Cohen and David Stearns for this opportunity.”

Gross had been the Mets’ vice president of amateur and international scouting since November of 2023 after spending more than a decade as a scout with the Astros. The Mets happened to offer a window into the inner workings of their scouting process on Thursday with the release of “Searching For Tomorrow,” an original production featuring interviews with Gross and other scouts. 

Per Stearns, Gross will now contribute to major league transactions as well as amateur talent acquisition.

“I would like to thank David and the New York Mets for the recognition,” said Gross. “Scouting plays a crucial role in our ability to build a sustainable winning organization. I would like to thank the entire Amateur and International Scouting departments, whose tireless work allows me to be successful. Their dedication is the reason we are able to find exciting young Major League players as well as promising prospects. I am excited to continue the work we are doing to bring more homegrown talent to Queens.”

Technically, there’s a miniscule chance the Mariners could sneak into the playoffs. They’d need to win out and both the Rangers and Astros would have to lose out. That would give all three teams a 78-84 record and Seattle would take the division via a three-way tiebreaker. FanGraphs thinks the chances of that happening are … 0.0%. Really, this weekend is all about sending off Rick Rizzs into retirement. (If you’re watching these final four games on Mariners.TV or MLB.TV, make sure you’re switching your audio feed to the radio broadcast!) We never got a chance to say goodbye to Dave — he was here one season and then he was gone the next — so cherish this opportunity to say thank you and godspeed to Rick. The sound of our summer will be different next year. 

Game	Time	Mariners Starter	Angels Starter	Mariners Win%	Angels Win%
Game 1	Thursday, September 24 | 6:40 pm	RHP Bryan Woo	RHP Grayson Rodriguez	67.7%	32.3%
Game 2	Friday, September 25 | 7:10 pm	RHP Bryce Miller	LHP Reid Detmers	56.5%	43.5%
Game 3	Saturday, September 26 | 6:40 pm	LHP Kade Anderson	RHP Ryan Johnson	69.8%	30.2%
Game 4	Sunday, September 27 | 12:10 pm	RHP Logan Gilbert	LHP Yusei Kikuchi	66.6%	33.4%

Overview	Mariners	Angels	Edge
Batting (wRC+)	102 (6th in AL)	92 (15th in AL)	Mariners
Fielding (FRV)	-52 (15th)	-33 (13th)	Angels
Starting Pitching (FIP-)	99 (8th)	100 (9th)	Mariners
Bullpen (FIP-)	103 (10th)	99 (7th)	Angels

What can I say about the Angels that John didn’t already say last week when the Mariners faced them in Anaheim? This organization is in a weird spot right now. They’re on the verge of losing 100 games for the first time in franchise history but the team also just got out from under former owner Arte Moreno. This is the worst the team has ever played, yet it might be the most optimistic the fan base has been in a long, long time.

Player	Position	Bats	PA	K%	BB%	ISO	wRC+
Zach Neto	SS	R	684	30.6%	9.5%	0.194	114
Mike Trout	DH	R	619	26.0%	16.6%	0.183	132
Wade Meckler	LF	L	321	18.7%	9.7%	0.081	117
Vaughn Grissom	1B	R	455	18.2%	6.6%	0.151	99
Moisés Ballesteros	C	L	339	22.7%	8.3%	0.121	75
Denzer Guzman	3B	R	290	25.5%	5.5%	0.122	71
Josh Lowe	RF	L	331	30.2%	7.6%	0.153	76
Jose Siri	CF	R	244	32.4%	6.1%	0.167	91
Christian Moore	2B	R	131	34.4%	6.1%	0.066	31

From a previous series preview:

Anaheim has a couple familiar faces up top in Zach Neto and Mike Trout, but not many. They’ve taken the back half of the year to wisely audition several young players, finding some promise in folks like Wade Meckler but still waiting on more elsewhere. Moises Ballesteros was a highly regarded prospect with the Cubs but has not found his swing yet since coming over in return for reliever Ryan Zeferjahn. There’s a few post-hype hopes here as well in Josh Lowe and Jose Siri, but hope has been their predominant currency. 

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Pitcher	IP	K%	BB%	HR/FB%	GB%	ERA	FIP
Grayson Rodriguez	93.2	19.7%	9.0%	14.2%	39.2%	5.96	4.85
Bryan Woo	167.2	24.4%	5.3%	9.2%	37.8%	3.92	3.27

Pitch	Usage vRHB	Usage vLHB	Velocity	Stuff+	Whiff+	BIP+	xwOBA
Four-seam	51.4%	51.7%	96.1	103	75	89	0.383
Changeup	15.2%	32.8%	83.2	109	107	102	0.290
Curveball	7.8%	13.8%	80.8	94	79	109	0.392
Slider	25.6%	1.7%	85.0	104	103	99	0.355

At one point a few years ago, Grayson Rodriguez was considered the best pitching prospect in baseball. Unfortunately, a variety of injuries have prevented him from making good on those lofty expectations. He was traded from Baltimore to the Angels this past offseason — straight up for Taylor Ward — and returned from a major shoulder injury in May. He definitely hasn’t looked as sharp in his first major league action since 2024, though he’s slowly improved as the season has gone on. The good news is that his fastball velocity is still intact, but his command has really slipped and he’s just not generating as many swings and misses with his secondary pitches this year.

Pitcher	IP	K%	BB%	HR/FB%	GB%	ERA	FIP
Reid Detmers	179	28.4%	6.4%	9.5%	37.8%	3.47	3.05
Bryce Miller	112.2	24.4%	7.8%	14.6%	37.9%	3.99	4.43

Pitch	Usage vRHB	Usage vLHB	Velocity	Stuff+	Whiff+	BIP+	xwOBA
Four-seam	45.8%	44.9%	94.1	102	95	102	0.314
Sinker	0.5%	2.5%	93.5
Changeup	12.3%	0.9%	83.8	101	123	112	0.294
Curveball	12.0%	8.6%	72.3	101	117	110	0.307
Slider	29.5%	43.2%	86.0	110	109	97	0.218

From a previous series preview:

Reid Detmers has thrived in his return to the rotation this year, accumulating a career-high 4.4 fWAR with career-best marks in ERA and FIP. His strikeout rate is right in line with his career norms but the big reason he’s taken a big step forward is because he’s cut his walk rate by nearly three points and has dramatically reduced the amount of hard contact he has allowed.

The Mariners managed to score three runs off Detmers last week and he struggled in his next outing against the Twins over the weekend. 

Pitcher	IP	K%	BB%	HR/FB%	GB%	ERA	FIP
Ryan Johnson	95	18.5%	9.5%	13.0%	34.1%	4.93	5.38
Kade Anderson	32.1	21.4%	6.1%	11.1%	38.3%	4.18	3.72

Pitch	Usage vRHB	Usage vLHB	Velocity	Stuff+	Whiff+	BIP+	xwOBA
Sinker	21.7%	15.3%	92.4	81	17	73	0.515
Cutter	37.0%	38.8%	89.7	104	102	88	0.317
Splitter	8.1%	29.3%	84.6	74	93	146	0.253
Sweeper	33.2%	16.7%	80.9	107	90	80	0.279

From a previous series preview:

Ryan Johnson is a perfect encapsulation of everything wrong with the Angels current player development philosophy. He was drafted in the second round in 2024 after dominating in college ball at Dallas Baptist. He made the Opening Day roster in 2025 as a reliever, skipping the minor leagues entirely. After a month and a half and a 7.36 ERA, the Angels pulled the plug and sent him to High-A to continue his development as a starter. He made 12 starts in the minors and looked really good. Fast forward a year and Johnson had a solid, but not outstanding, spring training and Los Angeles opted to start the season with Johnson on the big league roster again. After allowing six runs in his first start of the year, the Angels sent him back to the minors for a few months before recalling him for good in mid June. It’s really too bad because Johnson has a really intriguing profile, and obviously has some raw talent, but the games the Angels have played with his development pathway have really hurt his ability to grow.

Johnson held the Mariners to just a single run in six innings last week, striking out seven against zero walks.

Pitcher	IP	K%	BB%	HR/FB%	GB%	ERA	FIP
Yusei Kikuchi	62.2	21.3%	10.3%	10.1%	40.8%	4.88	4.12
Logan Gilbert	182	26.7%	6.5%	14.3%	38.0%	3.81	3.91

Pitch	Usage vRHB	Usage vLHB	Velocity	Stuff+	Whiff+	BIP+	xwOBA
Four-seam	41.1%	42.0%	95.5	99	88	115	0.304
Cutter	6.0%	5.7%	90.2	76
Splitter	20.7%	7.1%	86.6	107	91	66	0.344
Curveball	10.4%	9.9%	79.4	97	76	168	0.301
Slider	21.7%	35.3%	87.4	93	78	122	0.356

From a previous series preview:

Yusei Kikuchi missed nearly four months of the season with a shoulder injury. He returned to the majors towards the end of August and resumed his brand of effectively wild pitching. After a slight dip in velocity last year, his heater is back to averaging close to 96 mph. It’s the eighth hardest four-seamer from the left side among all starting pitchers this year. He continues to mix in a hard slider and a curveball as his primary secondary pitches, but he’s replaced his changeup with a true splitter and added a cutter this season. The split has been an excellent pitch but the cutter has been hit pretty hard.

Kikuchi did not have his best stuff against the Mariners last week. He allowed five runs on five hits and five walks in just 4.1 innings.

---

The Big Picture:

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Run Diff	Recent Form
Astros	78-80	0.494	—	-53	L-L-L-W-L
Rangers	78-80	0.494	—	-42	W-W-L-L-L
Mariners	74-84	0.468	4.0	-62	W-L-W-L-W
Athletics	63-95	0.399	15.0	-217	L-L-L-W-W
Angels	60-98	0.380	18.0	-93	L-W-L-L-L

Like I said above, the Mariners can sneak into the postseason if they win out and the Astros and Rangers both lose out. That means we’re rooting for the A’s against Houston and the Twins against Texas.

With four games left in the regular season, it is still impossible to predict where the Phillies are going to play in the opening round of the postseason next week.

Yes, this is assuming the Phils don’t blow a 3-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks with four to play, but I’m willing to take that risk.

Things got even murkier on Wednesday night.

• The Phillies fell 4-1 to the Milwaukee Brewers after going 0-12 with runners in scoring position.
• The Miami Marlins edged the Cubs 3-2, their second win over Chicago in as many nights.
• The San Diego Padres handled the Dodgers in L.A., 5-1.

Suddenly, the Padres now sit atop the wild card standings at 88-70, holding a one-game lead on the Cubs and Phillies, both of whom are 87-71.

San Diego is going to enter the playoffs as the hottest team in baseball, 15-5 in September, and 32-16 since the start of August, the best mark in baseball (the Phillies are 30-18, by the way, 4th-best). If the season ended today, the Padres would host the Cubs in the wild card round, with the Phillies heading to Atlanta.

However, the Padres would need to finish with the best record, as they would lose the tie-breaker to both the Cubs and the Phillies. They went 1-5 against Chicago and 0-6 against Philadelphia. The Cubs went 6-1 against the Phils and hold that tie-breaker.

The ideal scenario for the Phillies would be for them to finish as the top wild card team and the No. 4 seed, with the Padres slotting in as the 5-seed and Chicago landing at 6. In that situation, the Phils would welcome the Padres to Citizens Bank Park, and that is a realistic scenario given what’s coming this weekend.

On Thursday, the Phils will wrap up their series against the Brewers, who will be throwing a bullpen game as they ready themselves for the postseason. The Padres finish their series against the Dodgers and the Cubs play one more against the feisty Marlins.

This weekend, the Cubs could be in real trouble. With nasty weather anticipated up in Boston, MLB is scheduling a day-night doubleheader between Chicago and the Red Sox on Friday and a single game on Saturday, understanding that one, or multiple, of those games might have to be made up. That kind of disruption could be difficult for the Cubs, even going up against a Red Sox team that is locked in as the AL’s second wild card.

The Padres, meanwhile, are hosting a Diamondbacks team that may or may not still have an outside shot at a playoff berth. San Diego should be able to handle Arizona at home, and may have the clearest path to the NL’s top wild card spot now.

As for the Phils, it remains to be seen how the Rays are going to play things this weekend at Citizens Bank Park. They have the American League’s No. 1 seed locked up, so these games are meaningless to them. They are unlikely to pitch their top starters for more than a couple innings, and their regulars will likely get some rest. That said, Tampa is still a very good, and deep, team, capable of handling the Phils even with some of their regulars out of the lineup.

There is a realistic path to the Phillies earning the top wild card spot and hosting either the Cubs or the Padres. There’s just as likely a chance they’ll finish as the second wild card and travel to Chicago or San Diego for the best-of-three series, and also as likely a chance they are the NL’s final wild card and head to Atlanta for a series against the Braves.

Obviously, a first round match-up with the Padres would be the ideal scenario. The Phillies have owned them over the last few years. A trip to Wrigley would, for the sake of spectacle, be terrific. Despite both teams having existed for more than 100 years, the Phils and Cubs have never squared off in the postseason.

A trip to Atlanta would be ick.

There’s an argument to be made that starting the playoffs on the road, as an underdog and away from the crushing expectations of the fanbase, might be the best thing for this group. They could sell themselves as the upstarts, the same way they did in 2022 against the Cardinals in St. Louis, rather than “the favorite,” expected to win.

Fans should continue to hope for a home wild card series, but it wouldn’t be the end of the world if they started the postseason away from home.

On the latest Hittin’ Season podcast, I discussed all the scenarios with Mike Robertson of FranzkeLA, so make sure to check it out!