The national baseball media has been trying to trade Tarik Skubal from the minute the Detroit Tigers were eliminated from the ALDS by the Seattle Mariners last October. That’s not a surprise, because it’s a good storyline, and one that media in major markets loves to push as the big spending teams pluck talent from smaller markets. The whole concept of a Skubal trade has been a huge maker of hay since the beginning of the offseason, and it’s certainly an interesting topic. Now that it’s finally becoming a more relevant one, it’s worth keeping in mind that the Tigers already placed their bets this season, and don’t seem at all keen on dealing the back-to-back AL Cy Young winner in the first place.
There certainly were plenty of reasons to think a trade made sense over the offseason, and there are plenty of reasons to think a trade makes sense now. The Tigers front office passed on considering a trade last offseason, and it’s hard to believe they will easily change their minds unless they really struggle coming out of the All-Star break. Remember the bet Scott Harris and Jeff Greenberg already placed on this season by keeping Skubal in the first place.
Since taking over the Tigers, the biggest trade the Scott Harris-led Tigers have made was dealing a rental in Jack Flaherty. In terms of volume of trades, they rank toward the bottom of the league in the Harris era, waiver claims excluded. This front office doesn’t pursue many trades. They aren’t out there aggressively trying to upgrade their roster with trades during the offseason, and so far they haven’t been very good at making deadlines trades either. And other than trading Jack Flaherty at the 2024 deadline, the trades they have made, whether buying or selling, have been small in scale and consequence. These things are related. A potential Skubal trade exists on a higher level of importance and scrutiny than anything they’ve done through four offseason and three trade deadlines.
We certainly thought that a major package of prospects including a major league ready starter was a possibility worth exploring back in the offseason. Yet there was no point writing about it, because the Tigers had no real interest in exploring the possibility. Neither party showed any interest in an extension offer either. Months later, with the Tigers creeping back into the postseason chase after a catastrophic month of May, there still appears to be no real interest in trading their ace. At least nationally, few seem to be taking this part of the equation seriously. The Tigers have to trade him even if they might get a wild card spot, right? Right?
Not so fast.
The Tigers have had some reason and plenty of opportunity to at least explore the possibility of a Skubal trade for a long while now, and they’ve shown zero interest in doing so. The projected return on a Skubal trade has diminished with each step. Would they fiually change their minds now when they’re 3.5 games out of a postseason berth in mid-July? Was the decision to hold onto him this year and try and go for it contingent on a specific marker in the minds of the Tigers’ decision makers? Or would they have to really stagger out of the gate after the All-Star break to even consider listening to offers?
We don’t have the answer, but their history says they’re not real comfortable in this position. Since taking over the Tigers at the end of the 2022 season, the Harris front office has been in three big spots nationally. They’ve had two notably valuable players to trade at the deadline in Eduardo Rodriguez in 2023 and Jack Flaherty in 2024. The third was the Skubal arbitration hearing over the winter, which was one of the biggest stories nationally for a while. When this front office has had the spotlight on them in a negotiation, things haven’t gone very well.
So, it’s time to sharpen up old Occam’s Razor here. Scott Harris and Jeff Greenberg believed that keeping Skubal gave them a legit shot at reaching the World Series this year, and that taking that shot was worth more than dealing him for two really good prospects and thinking beyond 2026. Reaching the World Series is the only goal worthy of holding onto him in his walk year. And so it’s a straight line from there to the realization that they wont’t trade their ace unless they’re convinced that they won’t make the postseason. They’ve already placed a pretty big bet on making it to the party and shooting their shot in October. They probably don’t care how they get into the tournament to face a pretty mediocre looking American League postseason field. Only that they have a chance.
The Tigers hold a 22-14 record going back to June 1. They are 6.5 games behind first place Chicago for the top spot in the AL Central. They are 3.5 games outside of a wild card berth. They’ve made a really nice run to get back on the fringes of the conversation. There are 66 games left in the season. The Tigers certainly aren’t in good position here, but they’re still close enough as of this writing to believe they can at least draw a wild card slot. Their odds will be on a seesaw unless they go on a post All-Star break run or collapse which would make the decision easy.
FanGraphs currently has the Tigers postseason odds at 27.7 percent. For an analytic organization, what do the playoff odds have to be for the Tigers’ brass to decide that they have to start thinking long term and open up trade talks on their ace? The next 16 games could certainly sway those odds significantly, but it would be very interesting to hear the front office put a number on it. That’s not happening publicly, of course.
We’ve seen the Tigers and Guardians both make massive runs to the postseason in the final weeks of each of the last two seasons. We’ve also seen the Twins in 2024 and the Tigers in 2025 fall apart in September. There’s really no predicting the outcome. A handful of top teams will probably continue to play great, and a lot of really bad teams will continue to be bad and sell off over the next two and a half weeks. For everyone else it’s a crapshoot.
One would think the Tigers have to win something like 9-10 of their next 16 and gain more ground in the wild card chase to hold onto their potential trade chips, but this front office does things their own way. So, just remember who we’re dealing with here. The Tigers could play the next 16 games, find themselves still 3.5 games back in the wild card hunt, and I still couldn’t say with any certainty that they’re going to make a deal for Skubal.
Personally, I think the idea of trading Skubal fills them with dread. If they make a deal, punting on the 2026 season in most fans’ eyes, and don’t land at least one really good player, it will be a major failure. Of course, if they keep him and miss the playoffs, that would be equally disastrous. So, while we can scheme all sorts of Skubal trade ideas that would make the Tigers better in 2027 and beyond, without fully giving up on the 2026 season, I assume that things would have to go pretty poorly over the next 16 games to get them into a selling posture. Right now, I think they’re planning to keep him, as they did this offseason when he had more value and potentially could have commanded two blue chip prospects.
The fact that Skubal isn’t having a Tarik Skubal level season is probably less of a factor than people might think. Prospective teams interested in his services are all about October. They aren’t concerned with his numbers before and after returning from the surgery. They’re concerned with his recent trendline and how they think he’ll pitch down the stretch and in the postseason. And with teams with excellent farm systems like the Dodgers, Rays, and even potentially the Brewers at least curious on the price, there is going to be competition and a ton of interest. Let no one tell you otherwise. At the same time, with 12 teams in the postseason, and few teams particularly in the American League really separating from the pack, the situation is still really murky and may require the next two weeks to really force teams’ hands in making deadline decisions.
Skubal was hit up for more home runs than usual in June, but he was basically speed running spring training again to get back into the groove of the regular season over his first couple of starts back. He’s now allowed four earned runs in his last three starts, while punching out 23 hitters in 16 innings of work, with three walks allowed. The only real criticism we can offer is that even in his last couple of outings, his command hasn’t been quite as sharp as peak Skubal, which has made it a bit harder to put hitters away as quickly and efficiently and led to a few more hittable pitches for hitters in swing counts.
All the underlying metrics say he’s healthy. His fourseam fastball is averaging 96.7 mph, which is nearly a tick less than in 2025, but on par for his 2023-2024 campaigns. The injury is arguably as much a feature as it is a bug, because taking six weeks off to rehab the elbow after having a bone chip removed makes him more likely to be fully fresh down the stretch and in October, rather than starting to run out of gas at the end of a full regular season campaign. This isn’t the kind of injury that raises any particular long-term red flags either. For all the same reasons, the Tigers have reason to believe that keeping Tarik Skubal gives them a particularly important weapon in trying to actually win something this season. The Tigers certainly shouldn’t be discounting him, and have to hold out for a full price package.
So let’s hope that’s the play here. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that the Tigers, unlike most teams, can credibly say they aren’t that motivated to trade him. There’s a weird kind of leverage available for a team that is notably trade averse. What would seem like a tactic from most teams might actually be true in the Tigers’ case, allowing them to hold out for a package that disregards the injury and underperformance in the first half. The attitude being, if you’re not going to give us what we want, we might as well play it out and say at season’s end, hey we believed in our team and we expected to make a run. There’s still the backup plan of holding onto Skubal, extending the qualifying offer, and collecting a compensation pick.
We also have the fun factor of a new CBA negotation and a potential work stoppage that could affect the 2027 season. Some teams may not feel comfortable enough at this deadline to make a big move, but others may look at this as a last chance before the ruleset and salary structure of the game is changed again. Talk about a Pandora’s Box of possible changes teams will have to, in some way, account for as the deadline approaches.
The Harris-Greenberg front office does love prospects, so if you’re really begging for a trade, you can perhaps take heart from the possibilities before them. Could the Tigers land Mike Sirota from the Dodgers, or Luis Peña from the Brewers along with some upper level pitching talent? Questions like these should at least intrigue this front office. At the same time, this is a rental, and while they need to do way better than they did with Jack Flaherty, it’s harder to know how many teams are really feeling all-in about making an aggressive win-now trade with so many other clubs still in the mix.
Of course, what this front office is really about, is trying to draft and develop well, augmenting the major league club with generally low cost, short term commitments. The specter of collecting a PPI pick for Kevin McGonigle’s Rookie of the Year campaign, getting compensation picks for Skubal and potentially for Casey Mize as well, in a year in which the Tigers are scheduled to have a a CBA pick after the regular first round (new CBA pending, of course), would have this front office drooling over the 2027 draft. That thought might be enough to keep Skubal and take a crack at winning this year despite the odds, or at very least to be very stubborn about holding out for a haul in order to trade him.
With the All-Star break ending, and the trade deadline looming, it’s certainly time to talk trades. It’s just well worth establishing the context that most of this Skubal trade talk doesn’t always acknowledge. The Tigers have at no point uttered a single word of interest in a Skubal trade. Whether they should trade Skubal or not is a separate question. Unless you believe that the Tigers are going to get their bullpen sorted without outside additions, it’s hard to like their chances. At the same time, they are right within striking distance of their targets now and perhaps everything simply comes down to how they perform over the next two weeks.
The Tigers have passed on opportunities to trade Skubal already when he had more value and it made pretty good sense to do so. They placed their bets in the offseason, signed Framber Valdez, and decided to try and make a push with this group in 2026. It hasn’t gone very well, but the trendline is certainly headed in the right direction. Unless circumstances really force their hand by August 3, their interest in trading Tarik Skubal is likely lower than the baseball world believes. They’re going to hold out as long as possible, and we’ll see if anyone changes their mind with a really great offer. That’s not the worst position to be in coming out of the All-Star break after the debacle that was the month of May, but the decisions made between now and the trade deadline are crucial ones to get right after the deadline failures and collapse of 2025. This front office’s legacy may be defined by the decisions they make in the next few weeks.