Category: Baseball

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The Mets play their second game since changing managers on Friday against the Phillies, a team whose season turned around after a similar move earlier in the season.  

The Mets have lost seven straight and yet are somehow favored.

My Phillies vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks take the Phillies as an unlikely but potentially profitable underdog.

Who will win Phillies vs Mets today: Philies moneyline (+116)

It's not unusual for teams to rally after a managerial change, but the New York Mets being favored seems like a gift.

The Philadelphia Phillies have won four straight and six of seven, while New York hasn't won since June 18. They'll win eventually, but getting a plus moneyline for the Phils is a no-brainer.

The Mets start Christian Scott in his first game off the injured list. Scott's offspeed and breaking stuff are both in the bottom third in MLB.

He'll rely on his fastball against Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, who are both among the top 20 fastball hitters in MLB.

COVERS INTEL: Alan Rangel doesn't have enough innings to qualify, but his hard-hit rate, barrel rate and exit velocity allowed would all be in the top 10% in MLB. Batters have a 44% whiff rate against his changeup.

Phillies vs Mets Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+106)

New York had Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto both in the lineup for just the 10th time this season and still only managed one run, the fifth time in their losing streak they've scored three or fewer. They're 29th in MLB in OPS.

The Phillies start journeyman Alan Rangel, who looked strong in two bullpen outings and was an effective starter in Triple-A. His stuff isn't overwhelming, but he avoids solid contact.

Philly also has the bullpen ready after only needing them for two innings and 28 pitches on Friday. They have a 2.39 ERA and 0.79 WHIP over the last three.

Phillies vs Mets weather

Notes on the weather and its impact.

Phillies vs Mets odds

• Moneyline: Phillies +117 | Mets -122
• Run line: Phillies +1.5 (-170) | Mets +1.5 (+163)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-117) | Under 8.5 (+113)

Phillies vs Mets trend

The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 24 away games (+11.50 Units / 44% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Mets.

How to watch Phillies vs Mets and game info

Phillies vs Mets latest injuries

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In his first 7 games of the season, Slade Cecconi got off to one of the worst starts to a season a starting pitcher could possibly have. He had a 6.56 ERA, a 5.79 FIP, and was giving up 2.02 HRs per 9 innings pitched. In the 9 starts since, his ERA has gone down to 2.96, his FIP to 3.47, and the HR/9 rate is down to 0.74. So, has Slade turned things around? Let’s break it down.

Before getting into some of the changes he’s made, it’s important to look at the information we already have a bit more closely. There’s a natural ebb and flow in a baseball season, as both hitters and pitchers will experience changing conditions in the field. Batted ball distribution, luck, and defensive performance behind a pitcher can fluctuate, and because of that, surface level results can often be cloudy. For example, on the surface, a pitcher putting up an ERA 3.50 runs lower than they had been and a FIP drop of almost 2.50 sound amazing, but if we look at his xERA and xFIP numbers, they tell a slightly different story. For example, look at the following table:

We can see that in those first starts, Slade was actually getting significantly higher than expected results, and in the more recent set of starts we see the opposite. (Granted, the more recent difference is not as extreme.) This leads us to conclude that baseball variance has amplified both ends of this equation. The good news is that even though the degree of the new performance is a little bit overexaggerated by the under and then overperformance relative to expected metrics, we can see there still appears to be a definite improvement that’s happened, even if it’s less of one than we originally might have thought. In order to get to an answer, we’re going to take a look deeper at his more specific quality of contact numbers and see if we can find any differences that would explain this extreme change in results. Let’s start with the following data:

Looking at this, I think we may have a bit of conundrum. Hard-Hit % has stayed the same, but the Average Exit Velocity has gone up, and the Barrel % has plummeted. We also have a modest, but important, uptick in Ground Ball %, and here we can draw a few conclusions. Even though Slade appears to be getting hit slightly harder on average than before, we can see from the Barrel % and the Ground Ball %  that the hard-hit contact is not translating into barrel-level damage nearly as much as before. The Barrel % drop is so significant it’s the clearest signal of improved damaging contact prevention. Another consideration with increases in ground ball outs comes the chance for increases in double plays turned. When we look at that data, we can see there were 3 GIDPs in Slade’s first 7 starts, and 6 in the most recent 9 starts. This could be normal variance, but it is worth mentioning to see if the pattern holds. This modest rise in Ground Ball % may have contributed to reducing the severity of the contact outcomes on Slade’s pitches, but the largest driver of improvement appears to be the overall suppression in  barrel conversion of the hard contact and not a broad reduction in overall hard contact. These factors combined do show some real meaningful improvements beyond potentially noisy surface level results. Next, let’s break down Slade’s pitch mix and see if we can learn anything from that. Here’s some data to take a look at:

There’s a lot to unpack here, but the general trend we can see has been increased usage of the fastball and fastball variant pitches (the 4SFB, the cutter, and the sinker), the addition of the slider and changeup, and the near total removal of the sweeper. We see that the mix before was very 4SFB heavy, with moderate cutter and low sinker usage. Now, we can see the pitches are thrown in a much more balanced distribution.

We can also see the curveball is being used at about the same rate, but the contact quality on it is significantly better. Having multiple different fastball movement profiles may be making his pitches less predictable, and combining that with slider and changeup usage may be what’s opening up the curveball to be weaponized more. We can also see the velocity differences of the pitches give him a few different speed options to potentially help keep hitters off balance, and the slider and the changeup coming in at similar speeds but moving in different ways can make the pitch location harder to discern for the hitter.

The increase in options in the different velocities may be improving deception and timing disruption and ultimately contributing to the ability to miss barrels and get less damaging contact. The increased sinker usage also helps explain the increase in the Ground Ball % we spoke of earlier.

Now that we’ve identified some changes to the pitch mix and how they may have affected Slade’s results, let’s take a look at his command and see if there’s been any changes there.

Initially there’s a lot of good here. Lower walk rate, more first pitch strikes, and more pitches in the ABS strike zone as well (Zone %). The final number in the table (CSW%) stands for “Called Strikes plus Whiffs”, and the idea behind this stat is to show how often the pitcher “wins” the pitch outright either by throwing something in the strike zone that the hitter does not swing at, or by getting the hitter to swing and miss. We can see this number has improved as well. This is a very modest improvement, but still worth mentioning because of the nature of the statistic.

We’ve seen evidence of the pitches getting more favorable contact quality before, and now we can also see Slade is throwing more strikes, and the higher CSW % shows that the increase isn’t just in easy to hit pitches either. 

So we put that all together and what do we see? Honestly, these improvements appear to be very real and tangible. Although the magnitude of the improvements does appear to be magnified by normal baseball variance. We saw that his initial bad start looked worse than it was, and this good stretch looks a bit better than what the surface numbers suggest it is, but it’s still significantly better.

We should probably expect some regression from the recent starts, but overall it seems like Slade has made legitimate adjustments and gotten back on track, and it couldn’t have come at a better time for the Guards.

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Toronto Blue Jays starter Dylan Cease is a strikeout merchant and draws a favorable matchup against this Texas Rangers lineup today, making Over 7.5 strikeouts my favorite play of the day.

Read on for my Blue Jays vs. Rangers predictions and MLB picks for this Saturday, June 27 matchup.

Rangers vs Blue Jays predictions

Rangers vs Blue Jays best bet: Dylan Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts (-120)

Dylan Cease leads all American League pitchers with 118 K’s, while eclipsing this strikeout total in six of his last seven starts.

The Toronto Blue Jays starter owns a 32.4% strikeout rate against this Texas Rangers lineup, while primarily throwing a healthy amount of four-seamers and sliders.

This Rangers squad struggles with the fastball-slider combination, with the third-lowest batting average against that pitch mix and the seventh-worst whiff rate in the majors.

That plays into Cease’s strengths as one of baseball’s premier swing-and-miss pitchers, ranging in the 97th percentile in whiff rate, while suppressing contact with just a 4.8% barrel rate against his pitches.

So the combination of Cease's elite swing-and-miss stuff, coupled with the Rangers’ inability to make contact with his primary pitch mix, makes me confident betting this to -130.

COVERS INTEL: Cease leads the majors with a 13.5 K/9 in 2026, averaging 8.8 strikeouts per game over his last seven starts.

Rangers vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)

The Rangers have lost in each of the last six outings for Cal Quantrill, who owns a 1.010 OPS against this Blue Jays lineup. With Toronto starting All-Star candidate Cease and a plus matchup against this Rangers lineup, I’ll add the Blue Jays moneyline to the SGP.

Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho profiles well against Quantrill, and has hit the ball well since returning from the IL with a .333 average and a 202 WRC+ over his last five games. He’s also 3-for-4 against Quantrill in his career.

Rangers vs Blue Jays SGP

• Dylan Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts 
• Jays moneyline
• Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 hits

Rangers vs Blue Jays home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+255)

Kazuma Okamoto hits the ball harder than any other Blue Jays in the lineup with a 50% hard hit rate, .479 slug-rate, and a team-high 19 home runs this season

He’s been swinging the bat extremely well over his last eight games, too, with four home runs in that stretch, a 57% hard-hit rate, and a 259 WRC+.

However, it’s a bullpen day for the Rangers. Without knowing Okamoto’s exact pitching matchup throughout the game, I’ll make this just a half-unit wager.

Rangers vs Blue Jays odds

• Moneyline: Rangers +136 | Blue Jays -150
• Run line: Rangers +1.5 (-135) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+115)
• Over/Under: Over 8 (+110) | Under 8 (-130)

Rangers vs Blue Jays trend

The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+3.50 Units / 20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Blue Jays.

How to watch Rangers vs Blue Jays and game info

Rangers vs Blue Jays latest injuries

Rangers vs Blue Jays weather

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David Peterson was driving home following Wednesday's doubleheader when he received word from David Stearns that he'd been traded to the Chicago Cubs. 

Peterson, the longest-tenured Met, was surprised at first but then looked forward to the new opportunity. 

“Obviously some shock in the moment,” he told reporters Friday. “Drafted by the Mets, spent 10 years there, a lot of great memories, great people, but you kind of move on to the next step -- it’s the business, so I’m excited.”

That next step presents an intriguing change of scenery for Peterson. 

The 30-year-old lefty hasn’t pitched the same since cracking his first All-Star team last year, carrying over his brutal second-half into spring training and the first three months of this season. 

He's been a bit more effective working behind an opener in a bulk relief role, but otherwise has been knocked around, pitching to an ugly 7.71 ERA and 1.95 WHIP as a starter on the year.  

Still, Peterson feels good and is confident he can help Chicago's shorthanded rotation.  

"I went through some things early in the year that we needed to clean up," he said. "I feel a lot better about where we're at now, I feel like myself back in '24, '25 -- I'm excited for the opportunity to start and get the routine back."

One aspect Peterson figures to benefit from is the defensive upgrade behind him. 

The Mets' defense as a whole has been shaky throughout this disappointing season, while the Cubs are among the best in the game in Outs Above Average and runs prevented. 

For a groundball pitcher like Peterson, "it's huge."

“You look at the guys around the infield and the defense as a whole, it’s hard not to be excited," he said. "You see them statistically at the top of every list, so I’m excited to have those guys behind me on the field.”

Peterson's Cubs debut will take place Saturday night in Milwaukee.

One of the joys of this here daily birthday series is that we get to see nearly every corner of the Yankees’ history. Yesterday’s entry featured the incomparable Derek Jeter, an inner-circle Hall of Famer, 14-time All-Star, and five-time World Series winner, while today’s will see a 2022 fifth-round draft pick, who has yet to surface in the Major Leagues, and has only recently spent time in Triple-A.

Although it is a professional baseball career that has hardly begun, Eric Reyzelman’s will be under the microscope today. With nary a single Yankee player being born on June 27th, it is the 25-year-old’s day in the light. And hey: If he advances just one more level, Reyzelman be the first!

Eric Michael Reyzelman
Born: June 27, 2001 (San Ramon, CA)
Yankees Tenure: 2022-Present (minors)

Born in 2001 in San Ramon, California, on the eastern outskirts of the Bay Area, Reyzelman grew up a Giants fan, and did not go without adversity early in his playing days. Despite being drafted by the Yankees, and seeing minor league success to this point, Reyzelman was actually cut from his high school baseball team. Forced to take a non-traditional route to professional baseball, the right-hander did not let a little adversity stop him from succeeding.

Reyzelman actually committed to playing baseball at the Division-I level in college, before he played on his JV or Varsity squad. With travel ball being his avenue, his talents drew plenty of interest despite not playing for his school. The interest was strong enough, evidently, for the Yankees to draft Reyzelman in the fifth round out of LSU.

In the same year he was drafted, the right-handed hurler began his professional career in the Yankees organization. It was a brief stint, as he tossed just four combined innings between A-ball and Rookie ball, and he barely pitched in 2023 as well, as a cyst on his back the required multiple operations kept him off the mound.

Reyzelman finally got a more substantial opportunity in 2024, and did not waste his time on the mound. In 38.2 total innings between Rookie ball, High-A, and Double-A, the righty broke out with a sparkling 1.16 ERA. It was no fluke either, as he struck out a whopping 63 batters in that span, good for a 40.9 percent clip.

The success earned him a full season with Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre in 2025 as he pitched exclusively at that level, tossing 42 mostly effective innings that season. He didn’t quite reach the same level of effectiveness that he did in 2024, as he managed an ERA well above 4 and his strikeout rate was nearly cut in half.

In 2026, Reyzelman has once again split time between Double-A and Triple-A, as he’s pitched 24.1 innings to this point, and has likely ran into some tough luck with a 5.55 ERA and a mismatched 3.07 FIP on the year. His pitch-mix has evolved significantly since he left college with a profile very heavy on the fastball, adding in a slider and a changeup which have varying returns in the command department.

Now in his age-25 season, Reyzelman has shown flashes of highly effective relief pitching, though his overall production, not to mention his health, have been inconsistent over the course of his professional career. In fact, our own Scott Walsh recently spoke with Reyzelman about getting to the brink of The Show and the challenges of injuries getting in his way (among other things). He has ascended to the highest reaches of the minor leagues, and his arrival in the big league bullpen may be a matter of time. Despite any concerns, he clearly has some talent that could do damage in the right hands, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him racking up Ks out of the ‘pen in the future. If you’re in business, call this a futures investment, perhaps.

In the meantime, we wish him a happy 25th birthday!

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

You can’t say you didn’t see this one coming. It would have been great to get one of those “because baseball” games. But it’s always important to remember that sometimes Goliath just squashes David, the Globetrotters virtually always win and The Miz and the Brewers are going to beat the Cubs in Milwaukee.

It’s a rare game in the modern era when I think that things get even worse as the game gets later. It’s no secret that as starts, on average, get shorter and shorter over time, the number of wins and losses recorded by starting pitchers also decreases. I’ve not studied it, but surely it’s not a 1 to 1 ratio. But there’s going to be some correlation there.

I can remember back more than 20 years ago and the not so subtle strategy of running up pitch counts against pitchers like Kerry Wood and Carlos Zambrano. If you can’t hit them, work up the pitch count and get in the pen. As pitch counts have gone down, that strategy is definitely a thing. And it is essentially a no-lose scenario. The pitcher gets deep and gets into the third time through the order with an escalating pitch count, he’s vulnerable. They get him out and you are going to see some depth relievers. Does any of that guarantee victory? Of course not. But it sure helps.

The counterpunch, of course, is building a strong bullpen. Hard to do, but we have slowly seen the rise of stealing the game with your bullpen. Now we see scores of hard throwing, talented relievers at the end of games. A seemingly unending line of guys throwing in the upper 90s. The Cubs do not have a strong bullpen. The Brewers do. Ergo, this was a rare game where I didn’t feel more comfortable as the Cubs held the Brewers scoreless longer. Even after Seiya Suzuki’s solo homer, I assumed the Brewers would eventually outlast the Cub bullpen.

I was not wrong. Ho hum. An entirely expected result with a few innings of false hope sprinkled on top.

Three Positives:

• Colin Rea. The one thing you absolutely could not have was a very short start. Rea matched Miz for five innings. He was charged with a run in the sixth.
• Seiya Suzuki provided a brief ray of hope with his solo homer. Added a walk and a sacrifice fly.
• Alex Bregman with a single and walk.

Game 82, June 26: Brewers 6, Cubs 2 (44-38)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Colin Rea (.137). 5 IP, 23 BF, 5 H, 3 BB, ER, 4 K
• Hero: Seiya Suzuki (.100). 1-2, HR, 2 RBI, R, BB, SF
• Sidekick: Alex Bregman (.042). 1-3, BB

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Ethan Roberts (-.260). IP, 5 BF, 2 H, BB, 2 R (0-2)
• Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.122). 0-4, DP
• Kid: Nico Hoerner (-.091). 0-4

WPA Play of the Game: Garrett Mitchell’s two-out, two-run homer in the sixth off of Ethan Roberts. (362)

Mets Play of the Game: Immediately before that, Roberts got a line drive double play with runners on first and second and no outs. (.204)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 81 Winner: Pete Crow-Armstrong received 74 of 168 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong +20
• Michael Busch +18
• Ben Brown +13.5
• Carson Kelly +12.5
• Trent Thornton +11.5
• Jacob Webb/Jameson Taillon -8
• Edward Cabrera -9.5
• Phil Maton -10
• Caleb Thielbar -13
• Seiya Suzuki -20.5

Up Next: Game two of the weekend three-game set in Milwaukee. David Peterson (3-6, 6.09) makes his Cub debut. I suspect he is too much of a pro to have actual tears in his eyes the first time the Cubs turn a double play behind him. The Mets defense has been exceptionally bad and the Cub defense has been quite good. The Brewers start Kyle Harrison, the promising young lefty. Harrison is 8-1 with a 2.50 in 14 starts. If you ask me, this is a second complete mismatch and the Cubs will struggle for any offense for a second straight day.

It’ll be interesting to get a look at Peterson as a Cub, at least.

Why I (Usually) Won’t Rank Dbacks Pitchers

If it feels like I’ve been going out of my way to not talk about any of the pitchers in the Diamondbacks farm system, you’d be mostly correct thinking that. I am more comfortable analyzing the various aspects of a position player’s development than I am doing the same with pitchers. Not to mention, I do subscribe to the old adage of ‘There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect’ or TINSTAAP. Aside from pitchers being generally injury prone, there’s a lot that can go wrong with a pitcher’s development in general.

The Dbacks have some real issues when it comes to developing pitchers. Their AAA affiliate, the Reno Aces play in a ballpark at 4,498ft (1,373 meters) above sea level, that also is located in an area in downtown Reno, Nevada that has high winds on a nearly day to day basis. Not only does the ball fly further the higher in elevation you go thanks to less air resistance (and in this case aided by the wind if it’s blowing the right direction) but off speed and breaking pitches have significantly less movement on top of that. The Pacific Coast League has two teams in similarly high elevation cities, Albuquerque (5,312 ft/1,619 meters) and Salt Lake City (4,327 ft/1,319 meters), on top of Las Vegas (3,012ft) and El Paso (3,750 ft), which would still have higher elevation than 29/30 MLB teams.

That alone would be a challenge for any pitcher’s development, but then you have the fact that their AA affiliate the Amarillo Sod Poodles play in the most hitter friendly ballpark in the hitter friendly Texas League AND their A ball level affiliate, the Visalia Rawhide, also play in the hitter friendly California League. On top of all that, the rookie level Arizona Complex League is yet another a hitter friendly league, thanks to its location in the Phoenix metropolitan area. I can’t speak for the D’Backs two Dominican Summer League affiliates, but that leaves only the Hillsboro Hops in the A+ Level Northwestern League as the lone affiliate with a pitcher friendly league and ballpark. It is hard to confidently say “this is the top pitching prospect” when that same pitcher almost always has their earned run average get very ugly once they get to AA or AAA. A pitcher can look absolutely great one year in this system, than be absolutely horrible the following season. It’s also hard to distinguish what pitching well actually looks like in this farm system.

A great example of all of the above would be Daniel Eagen (Fangraphs, B-Ref pages), the organization’s 2025 MILB pitcher of the year and the highest ranked Dbacks pitching prospect on MLB Pipeline. After putting up a 2.49 ERA and 2.97 FIP in 97 ⅔ innings in Hillsboro, he ran into the buzzsaw after being promoted to Amarillo, putting up a 5.49 ERA, 6.30 FIP, and a 4.21 FIP in his final 19 ⅔ innings pitched in 2025. The results have been much the same in 2026. Although he leads Diamondbacks MILB pitchers with 74 strikeouts in 59 ⅔ IP, he’s also putting up a 5.58 ERA, 5.08 FIP, and a 4.52 xFIP. That is actually a slightly above average season if you go by his 95 ERA- and 91 FIP-, but it sure doesn’t feel like it is. Would I have Eagen as my top Dbacks pitching prospect and Dbacks top 10 overall? Probably not, as I would most likely have somewhere closer to the #16 overall Baseball America ranks him at.

I did actually have a half finished article covering a few of the top pitchers in the farm system going for a few weeks, that never got quite published as a result of either pitcher blowups, injuries, or other various reasons. At one point, a version of this article had Jose Cabrera as a featured pitcher. I just couldn’t find enough worthwhile information or a solid scouting report or video to investigate, so I held off and held off until next thing you know he’s called up.

Three Standout Pitching Prospects

Wellington Aracena RHP

DOB: 12/27/2004| Height/Weight: 6’3″ / 180lbs | Fangraphs | Baseball-Reference

Acquired in the Blaze Alexander trade, Aracena’s raw stuff is some of the best in the system. His arsenal includes a fastball that can reach 100 mph, a cutter in the mid 90s that misses bats and generates weak contact, in addition to a slider that has a whiff rate close to 50%. In 50 IP for Hillsboro in 2026, Aracena has put up a 3.78 ERA 3.69 FIP, 3.94 xFIP. Interestingly, 12 out of his 13 appearances have come as a starter, when I think it was assumed he’d be pitching in relief.

Junior Ciprian

DOB: 06/02/2005 | Height/Weight: 6’3 / 180lbs | Fangraphs | Baseball-Reference

A few years ago, I heard Ciprian described as “the most projectable starter in the Dbacks Farm system”, and in 2026 it’s starting to look like Ciprian is turning into that pitcher he was projected to be. This year in 61.1 IP pitching for A level Visalia, he’s put up a 3.08 ERA though with the caveat of a 4.95 FIP and 5.22 xFIP. Although once again, it’s worth mentioning that in the offense friendly California League that translates to a 56 ERA- and 88 FIP-

Ciprian has a very smooth delivery and clean mechanics; he works exclusively out of the stretch, using a 3/4 arm slot. He currently has a high 90s fastball that is already a plus pitch along with a high 80s wipeout slider. Ciprian lacks a third plus pitch, and if he’s going to succeed as a starter long term, he will need to develop one.

Patrick Forbes

DOB: 7/11/2004 | Height/Weight 6’3 / 220lbs Fangraphs | Baseball-Reference

The Dbacks took Forbes 29th overall in last year’s draft, but he only just now has made his season debut. Between the complex and Visalia Forbes has only pitched 11.1 innings with three earned runs allowed on five hits, but he’s also struck out 18 batters while issuing only one walk and one HBP. That improved control is noteworthy as Forbes struggled with control in his time in the NCAA and likely contributed to him falling to the Dbacks at #29. Forbes has high 90s velocity that has touched 100MPH on occasion, but has usually worked in the mid 90s. I’m actually not too familiar with Forbes’s arsenal of pitches, but I’m sure someone in the comment section can further elaborate on what he’s throwing these days other than the plus fastball and slider.

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The Reds and Pirates clash this afternoon, and I'm expecting a quiet first inning. Meanwhile, I see offensive fireworks in tonight's Dodgers vs. Padres tilt.

These matchups will headline my top NRFI predictions and YRFI predictions today.

Here are my best MLB picks for Saturday, June 27.

Best NRFI/YRFI predictions today

Pick	Odds
/ - NRFI	-137
/ - NRFI	-131
/ - YRFI	-112

Reds at Pirates: NRFI (-137)

Chase Burns takes the ball for the Cincinnati Reds this afternoon, and he owns a stellar 14-1 NRFI/YRFI record this season. Burns has also compiled a 2.48 xERA over his last two outings. 

Jared Jones hasn't been as elite with a 4.78 FIP across his last five starts, but the Reds are hitting just .210 in the first, and haven't produced any offense in the opening frame in eight straight games.

While I don't expect Jones to be lights-out, Cincinnati has consistently started games slowly, creating value in another scoreless first inning.

I'll play this pick up to -140. 

• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, Reds.TV

Royals at White Sox: NRFI (-131)

Two solid arms take the hill here that rarely allow damage early on. Michael Wacha sports a 13-3 NRFI/YRFI record in 2026, and he's pitching well lately, compiling a 2.57 FIP across his previous two starts. 

As for Davis Martin, he's tossed a clean first in seven straight, and in 15 starts, he's allowed a run in the opening frame just twice. 

Also, both of these offenses are struggling out of the gates right now. The Kansas City Royals haven't scored in the first in three in a row, while the Chicago White Sox have gone five games without a run in the opening inning. 

I'll play this pick up to -140. 

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Chicago Sports Network, Royals.TV

Dodgers at Padres: YRFI (-112)

There are multiple paths to a first-inning run tonight, but the Los Angeles Dodgers provide the clearest one.

Randy Vasquez has struggled lately, posting a 6.84 xERA over his last four starts while allowing a first-inning run in three straight outings. He also owns a mediocre 9-6 NRFI/YRFI record.

Los Angeles is batting .261 in the first inning and should have opportunities to capitalize early. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been outstanding overall, but he's still allowed a first-inning run in five of his 14 starts this season, giving the San Diego Padres at least a chance to contribute.

I'll play this pick up to -120.

• Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MLB Network

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Diamondbacks News

Diamondbacks Reach Halfway Point with Same Record as Last Year
Zac Gallen had another terrible first inning. There’s no getting around that fact. But then, Gallen found his groove and looked much like the Gallen of old as he mowed down the next 15 hitters. But then, his luck ran out in the seventh when Torey Lovullo tried to get one last inning out of him, given he was on a low pitch count and was dealing. The Diamondbacks offense fell flat though, failing to turn in a competitive performance in support of what was a decent start by the former ace of the team.

Corbin Carroll Sets Triples Record
Corbin Carroll stands alone as the Diamondback with the most triples, surpassing the mark previously held by Stephen Drew. Carroll will likely double that number or more by the time he is done in the desert, given how rapidly he reached his current number.

Yilber Diaz Claimed by Tigers
Yilber Diaz did not make it through waivers and is now headed to Detroit after having found no success in Arizona.

Other Baseball News

Angels Fire Minasian, Hire Mozeliak
The Angels announced a surprise change at the top of baseball operations. Los Angeles has fired general manager Perry Minasian and hired longtime Cardinals executive John Mozeliak as interim GM.

Closer Volatility on Full Display This Season in MLB
Except for Mason Miller, who is just doing filthy things on the mound.

White Sox Rout Royals 22-1
The game featured the most runs scored in a game by the Southsiders since 1970. It was also the Royals’ first-ever loss by 20 or more runs.

(40-38) Gwinnett Stripers 13, (45-34) Nashville Sounds 10

• Jim Jarvis, SS: 3-for-4, 3 R, BB, .313/.409/.466
• Brewer Hicklen, LF: 2-for-4, 2 RBI, 2 R, BB, .307/.376/.512
• Jose Azócar, RF: 3-for-5, 3 R, 2 RBI, .246/.302/.344
• Ben Gamel, DH: 3-for-5, R, RBI, .201/.337/.327
• Garrett Bauman, SP: 2IP 6H 8ER 2BB K, 12.66 ERA
• Rolddy Muñoz, RP: 1IP 0H 0R 0BB 3K, 2.37 ERA

Box Score

Strong bullpen pitching and very clutch hitting was the recipe for success for the Stripers come from behind victory. Three bullpen arms got it done, after starter Garrett Baumann was forced out in the third inning.

It was a very rough start for Garrett Baumann who lasted just two innings after surrendering six hits, and two walks, along with a wild pitch. The runs came early for Garrett who surrendered two runs in the first, including an RBI triple that drove in Luis Lara to put the sounds up 1-0. He would then give up a sacrifice fly to the next batter to push the lead to 2-0. Fast forward to the third inning and things really fell apart for Garrett as he went 2B, BB, 1B, WP, BB, Grand Slam, 3B to start the inning. He was replaced by Connor Thomas (4IP 4H 2ER 1BB 4K) who came in rushed and subsequently gave up a run scoring single of his own, and a two run home run to push the lead for the Sounds to 10-2 in the third. Connor would then settle in and pitch three more scoreless innings. He was relieved by Joel Payamps (2IP 2H 0R 0BB 1K) and Rolddy Muñoz (1IP 0H 0R 0BB 3K) would who pitched the final three innings of the game, registering a combined three scoreless innings, allowing the Stripers to mount their furious comeback.

After scoring a pair of runs in the second, the Stripers found themselves down 10-2 entering the fifth inning when the Stripers offense started to make things interesting. Run scoring singles by Luke Williams, and Brewer Hicklen, along with a run scoring ground out by Brett Wisely allowed the Stripers to close the gap to 10-6. A run scoring sacrifice fly by Brett Wisely, that drove in Jim Jarvis who singled earlier in the inning and went first-t0-third on a DaShawn Keirsey single, lessened the gap to 10-7 in the seventh inning. Ben Gamel would get back into the action in the eighth inning when he drove in Aaron Schunk to make it 10-8, and Jair Camargo would drive in José Azócar via a ground out to make it 10-9 in the eighth. The Stripers would then load the bases in the ninth inning with one out and Aaron Schunk would come through with game tying sacrifice fly to even the score at 10-10 with 2 outs. Azócar and would then hit the game winning single, driving in Brett Wisely, to make it 11-10. Azócar would then steal second, and come into score, along with Brewer Hicklen, on a field error by Luis Matos to give the Stripers two more runs, and making it 13-10 before Rolddy Muñoz struck out the side to end the game and give the Stripers the dramatic come from behind victory, the largest in franchise history.

(37-35) Rocket City Trash Pandas 0, (31-37) Columbus Clingstones 6

• Jordan Groshans, 3B: 2-for-4, RBI, 2 R, 2B, HR, .278/.363/.535
• Archer Brookman, C: 2-for-5, HR, RBI, 2 R, .259/.351/.393
• Kevin Kilpatrick Jr., RF: 3-for-5, RBI, BB, .255/.339/.366
• Lucas Braun, SP: 5IP 5H 0R 4BB 7K, 4.04 ERA

Box Score

Timely hitting, as the Clingstones went 5-for-11 with runners in scoring position, along with extremely strong pitching by five pitchers gave Columbus the shutout victory over the Trash Pandas.

Lucas Braun got the start for the Clingstones and while he danced around some trouble, allowing nine batters to reach base, he worked out of every jam, allowing only five singles. Every time there was some trouble, Lucas was either able to induce really weak contact or striking out batters. Following Lucas was a masterful, and dominant performance by a quartet of Clingstone arms. First up was the rehabbing Danny Young (1IP 0H 0R 1BB 1K) who pitched a scoreless sixth inning, needing just 13 pitches to retire the side. He was followed up by Ian Mejia (1IP 0H 0R 0BB 0K) who finally got an outing to go his way – pounding the zone and needing just 11 pitches to register the scoreless inning. Blake Burkhalter (1IP 0H 0R 0BB 0K), who is slowly returning to form after multiple injuries in the off-season, needed just 10 pitches as he induced a pair of fly outs in a scoreless eighth inning. Finally came in Tyler LaPorte (1IP 0H 0R 1BB 1K) who pitched the final inning, preserving the shutout for the Clingstones.

Offensively, much like the Stripers, it was some timely hitting by the Clingstones who as a team went 5-for-11 with runners in scoring position. Their first run came in the second inning with an Ambioris Tavarez RBI single that gave the Clingstones a 1-0 lead. In the next inning, five Clingstones in a row reached base, to push the lead to 3-0. In the fifth, it was catcher Archer Brookman who hit his fifth home run of the season to push the lead to 4-0. The fifth run came in the sixth inning in a rather unconventional way with Patrick Clohisy drawing a walk, stealing second and third, before coming around to score on a throwing error by the catcher to make it 5-0. Finally, it was Jordan Groshans in the eighth inning, that connected on his 11th home run of the season to extend it to 6-0.

(46-27) Greensboro Grasshoppers 5, (35-36) Rome Emperors 2

• Tate Southisene, SS: 1-for-5, .203/.365/.288
• Isaiah Drake, RF: 3-for-4, 2B, HR, RBI, 2 R, .258/.338/.425
• Owen Carey, LF: 1-for-3, BB, .245/.308/.378
• Zach Royse, SP: 5.2IP 8H 5ER 1BB 3K, 6.75 ERA

Box Score

The vaunted Emperors offense was never able to really get it started as they faced one of, if not the best, minor league baseball’s top arms in Seth Hernandez.

Zach Royse got the start for the Emperors and was just okay, as he gave up four extra-base hits including two home runs and a pair of doubles, in his start. Zach exchanged zeroes with Seth Hernandez for most of the game, until things fell apart for him in the decisive sixth inning. Zach gave up a pair of solo home run to start the inning. He would also give up a pair of doubles, and a run scoring balk, before being removed from the game with 2 outs in the fifth, and replaced by David Rodriguez (1.1IP 0H 0R 0BB 1K) who would end the threat, and pitch a scoreless seventh. Much like the Clingstones pitching staff, the Emperors relief core pitched the final 3.1 innings without allowing a single hit. Following David was Drew Christo (1IP 0H 0R 1BB 1K) who pitched a scoreless eighth before turning the ball over to Jacob Kroeger (1IP 0H 0R 0BB 2K) who struck out a pair in the games final inning.

Offensively, everyone outside of Isaiah Drake struggled mightily. The Emperors went 1-for-10 with runners in scoring position, stranding eight on base as a team. The teams’ first run came in the in the fourth inning when the Emperors would load the bases with two outs for Mason Guerra who promptly drew a walk, driving in Isaiah Drake. Colin Burgess would fly out to end the threat. The Emperors would then be held in check until the eighth inning when it was, once again, Isaiah Drake that connected on his 11th home run of the season.

(40-33) Augusta GreenJackets 4, (41-32) Charleston RiverDogs 7

• Luis Guanipa, CF: 0-for-3, BB, .319/.376/.486
• Alex Lodise, SS: 2-for-4, RBI, .257/.348/.458
• Tanner Smith, C: 2-for-4, HR, RBI, R, .244/.310/.474
• Michael Martinez, DH: 2-for-4, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, R, .238/.319/.417
• Landon Beidelschies, SP: 4IP 8H 6ER 1BB 1K, 7.71 ERA

Box Score

The much anticipated, at least by me, Cream (Aidan Cremarosa) – Cheese (Landon Beidelschies) pitching matchup went the way of the cream, as Landon Beidelschies struggled in his four innings of work for the GreenJackets.

After a relatively easy first inning, Landon ran into some problems in the second as he gave up a lead off double, and then a two run home run to put the RiverDogs on the board and giving them a 2-0 lead. He would allow four more runs in the fourth inning as he allowed five hits, including two doubles, pushing the lead for the RiverDogs to 6-0. Landon was replaced by Logan Forsythe (3IP 3H 1ER 0BB 6K) who pitched well, striking out six across three innings of work. He was clipped for one run in the seventh inning but otherwise filled in admirably, giving the bullpen much needed length. Kendy Richard (1IP 1H 0R 0BB 1K) pitched the final inning of the game.

Offensively, the team was really carried by three players – Alex Lodise, Tanner Smith, and Michael Martinez. After being held scoreless through the games first four innings, the GreenJackets broke out for three runs in the fifth inning – highlighted by a pair of home runs including a solo one by Tanner Smith, and a two run home run by Michael Martinez.

The GreenJackets would then be held scoreless until the seventh inning when the surging Alex Lodise drove in Cooper McMurray to make it 6-4 in the seventh inning. Over his last month of play Alex has appeared in 21 games and is hitting .272/.374/.605 with 6 home runs, seven doubles, and a triple.

(24-16) FCL Rays 11, (11-29) FCL Braves 1

• Diego Tornes, CF: 0-for-1, .196/.274/.304
• Mario Baez, 3B: 2-for-4, .244/.277/.311
• Juan Espinal, DH: 1-for-4, .156/.333/.156
• Luis Arestigueta, RP: 3IP 0H 1R 1BB 4K, 4.66 ERA
• Wuilinyer Tovar, SP: 4IP 5H 5ER 2BB 1K, 7.16 ERA

Box Score

Diego Tornes was removed from the game after hitting a 108 MPH ground out. The terms of his exit have not been disclosed.

(13-6) DSL Astros Blue 10, (4-15) DSL Braves 3

• Jose Manon, 2B: 0-for-4, .281/.391/.421
• Jorwin Pulido, C: 2-for-3, 2 R, .351/.412/.456
• Edelson Cabral, SS: 1-for-2, 2 BB, .296/.424/.370
• Sherrintley Da Costa Gomez, RF: 1-for-4, RBI, .365/.477/.615
• Jesus Cova, SP: 3IP 1H 0R 2BB 2K, 6.75 ERA

Box Score

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It's another busy slate across the big leagues, and that means more value in my MLB player prop home run analysis. 

Today's picks include Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, and Junior Caminero.

Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, June 27. 

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Bryce Harper	+341
Freddie Freeman	+422
Junior Caminero	+278
💲Today's HR parlay	+8601

Home run pick: Bryce Harper (+341)

Bryce Harper is tearing the cover off the baseball right now. He's hit three home runs over his last seven games while carrying a ridiculous .448 ISO, 54.2% hard-hit rate, and .646 xSLG during that span.

Harper has consistently been driving the ball with authority and looks primed for another big swing tonight.

The Philadelphia Phillies slugger draws a favorable matchup against New York Mets starter Christian Scott, who surrendered three home runs in his last outing.

Scott has also struggled to keep the ball in the park at Citi Field, allowing 1.72 home runs per nine innings at home compared to just 0.89 overall this season.

I'll play this pick up to +300.

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SNY, NBC Sports Philadelphia

Home run pick: Junior Caminero (+278)

It'll be difficult to find a hotter hitter in baseball right now than Junior Caminero.

The Tampa Bay Rays slugger has blasted five home runs over his last seven games while carrying a ridiculous 61.9% hard-hit rate and 23.8% barrel rate during the past week.

He's consistently squaring up the baseball and generating elite power.

The Arizona Diamondbacks hand the ball to rookie Jose Cabrera, who is making just his second major league appearance. Facing one of the hottest power hitters in baseball is a difficult assignment, especially with Caminero producing this type of contact quality.

When a hitter is barreling the ball this consistently, he's capable of leaving any yard.

I'll play this pick confidently to +200.

• Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Rays.TV, DBacks.TV

Home run pick: Freddie Freeman (+422)

Freddie Freeman may have just one home run over his last six games, but the underlying metrics suggest another one is coming. The Dodgers first baseman owns a 73.3% hard-hit rate, a .286 ISO, and a 16.3-degree launch angle during that span, consistently driving the ball with authority.

He'll face Randy Vasquez, who has allowed 40.6% of his contact in the air over his last two starts while surrendering a 46.2% hard-hit rate across the last month. That's a dangerous combination against one of baseball's hottest hitters.

I'll play this pick up to +350.

• Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MLB Network

Today’s HR parlay

Bryce Harper	Bet Now +8601
Freddie Freeman
Junior Caminero

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Good morning, LSB.

The Rangers held on for a win against the Blue Jays yesterday.

Justin Foscue drove in half the Rangers runs on a big night.

It was a night that Foscue apparently predicted for himself.

Elsewhere Corey Seager is ready to put a “frustrating” concussion recovery behind him.

Jeff Wilson takes a look at where the Rangers stand at the halfway point of the season.

Rusty Greer is the latest guest on Evan Grant’s podcast.

And finally, the Angels have fired GM Perry Minasian. Why, what happened?!?

That’s all for this morning. The Rangers play their third of four against the Blue Jays today at 2:07 with Cal Quantrill on the mound, I guess.

Have a great weekend!

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The Los Angeles Dodgers are -200 favorites to rebound from Friday night's 7-1 trouncing.

My Dodgers vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks see value in backing them to do just that. 

Who will win Dodgers vs Padres today: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-115)

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has posted an xERA of 3.0 or lower in six of his last seven appearances. He is consistently stringing together quality starts and is about the last pitcher the San Diego Padres would want to see.

They rank dead last in runs per game and have hit just .226 against right-handed pitching in June.

They are unlikely to cause problems for Yamamoto, who pitched seven innings of one-run ball against them in May.

The Los Angeles Dodgers should do damage against Randy Vasquez (6.47 xERA), positioning them to win by multiple runs.

Bet to -125.

COVERS INTEL: Randy Vasquez ranks in the eighth percentile in Pitcher Run Value.

Dodgers vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 8.0 (-110)

Only three of the past 10 head-to-head meetings have gone Over the total, and I expect another low-scoring game in the cards here.

It’ll be very difficult to string together hits against Yamamoto and the Padres lack power for quick-strike offense.

The Dodgers are missing a couple of key bats in Teoscar Hernandez and Will Smith. They’re also playing in a pitcher-friendly park, which will lower their offensive floor and ceiling.

I see this being a 5-2 type of game, and would play the Under to -120.

Dodgers vs Padres weather

Temperatures in the high 60s are expected with winds blowing east. Slight boost to the pitchers.

Dodgers vs Padres odds

• Moneyline: Dodgers -200 | Padres +165
• Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (-115) | Padres +1.5 (-105)
• Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-110) | Under 8.0 (-110)

Dodgers vs Padres trend

San Diego has been generous to Under bettors this season, owning a 35-44 O/U record. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres.

How to watch Dodgers vs Padres and game info

Dodgers vs Padres latest injuries

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I’m back with more MLB picks following last week’s 3-for-3 showing at the plate, and this time I’ve found some great value in a plus-money prop for Freddie Freeman, as well as picks for Byron Buxton and Chase Burns.

I’ll break down all three in my MLB player props for Saturday, June 27.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Freddie Freeman	Over 1.5 total bases	+118
Byron Buxton	Over 1.5 total bases	-126
Chase Burns	Over 6.5 strikeouts	-156

Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (+118)

Freddie Freeman is putting together another great season for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and he’s only getting better as the summer wears on, batting .429 over the past week with Over 1.5 total bases in each of his last three games.

Randy Vasquez takes the hill for the San Diego Padres tonight, and he has been hammered over the past month. 

The southpaw carries a bloated 6.91 ERA over his last six starts, which comes as no surprise given his underlying stats – Vasquez sits in the second percentile in xERA (6.47), xBA (2.97), and barrel %.

Vasquez goes to his cutter nearly a quarter of the time, though it’s been his worst pitch, with batters hitting .345 and slugging .655 against it.

Freeman himself is batting .375 vs. the cutter this season, with a .708 SLG and six extra-base knocks (out of 9 total hits).

I’m surprised this prop is plus-money tonight, but I’m playing it all the way to -110.

• Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Padres.TV Presented by UC San Diego Health, SportsNet LA, 

Byron Buxton Over 1.5 total bases (-126)

The Byron Buxton breakout bash continues. The Minnesota Twins slugger ranks in the 98th percentile in barrel % and 94th percentile in xSLG (.528). Oh, and his 25 dingers are also tied for the second most in the majors.

Buxton has smacked Over 1.5 total bases in five of his last seven games, highlighted by a three-hit outing in yesterday’s series opener against the Colorado Rockies. Buxton will make easy work of the Rockies and starter Michael Lorenzen tonight.

Lorenzen has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year, sitting in the bottom percentile in pitching run value and second percentile in xBA (.297).

The right-hander relies heavily on his four-seamer, which has been one of Buxton’s favorite pitches to hit. Buxton is batting a team-leading .364 against the four-seamer from righties, with an insane .891 SLG – the ninth-best mark in MLB.

I’ll play this one up to -135.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Rockies.TV, Twins.TV 

Chase Burns Over 6.5 strikeouts (-156 at DraftKings)

Chase Burns is averaging 10.7 strikeouts per nine this year, tied for the fourth most in MLB. The Cincinnati Reds sophomore has punched out 7+ batters in seven straight starts, and I foresee him topping that number again vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates today.

Pittsburgh’s 9.27 strikeouts per game are the third most in the majors, and the Pirates will struggle against Burns’ nasty slider.

Burns has finished off 69 of his 102 strikeouts via the slider, which batters are whiffing on more than 51% of the time.

The Pirates, as a team, have gone down swinging 214 times vs. the slider this season (4th-most), while their K% ranks 7th among all clubs (29.9%).

This one is chalky for good reason, but I’ll play it up to -160.

• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, Reds.TV

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The Guardians have a real hitting problem. The Pope is Catholic. Water is wet.

Yes, José Ramírez and Chase DeLauter are out. But, Luis Castillo waltzed into Progressive Field with a 5.22 ERA and shut this lineup down. There is something wrong.

Is it a pull/lift philosophy? Every team in baseball wants to pull the ball in the air, so I’m not sure. They definitely don’t hit the ball hard or barrel the ball often enough. Is that because of pull/lift? Or because their players are just not good enough? The organization needs to do some soul searching… and make some hires from organizations that know what the heck they are doing here (Milwaukee comes to mind).

I was at the game and had a great time with my daughter who is three and does not care about the score. Props to the team for fixing up the kids’ clubhouse from earlier in the year. Now, fix the offense.

Cooper Ingle debuted and looked like he had a solid approach. Hope he gets his first hit tonight. Here is his pre-game interview:

AROUND MLB

The White Sox and Tigers scored a million runs each and won their respective games.