Category: Baseball

Waking up to the news that the Rays traded Josh Lowe was bittersweet.

The first thing I wrote for DRaysBay was how excited I was about Josh Lowe heading into the 2023 season. The power and speed combo was exciting at the time, and the data suggested all he needed was an opportunity. Fast forward almost three years later, and I still think Josh Lowe can be an everyday ML player. I’m happy for him that he’ll have that opportunity with the Angels.

With that said, let’s look at the Rays 2026 outlook.

Short-term impact of the trade

I’m excited about the path to playing time this provides for Jacob Melton. Jacob Melton (and subsequently the Rays OF production and offense as a whole) might be the biggest winner in this trade.

I’ve already written about Melton, but a summary of what to expect from him is that he provides plus power, speed, and defense at all three OF positions with enough of a hit tool to make him an above average everyday player. Melton will have an even greater opportunity to win a roster spot during spring training.

The Rays also acquired a one-year stopgap in Gavin Lux – possibly to buy some time before Jadher Areinamo could be ready to take over the everyday 2B role in 2027. Lux seems like a relatively safe player the further he gets from his ACL tear in 2023, but his profile may be a bit redundant as he is incredibly similar on both sides of the ball to Richie Palacios (who also has dealt with some knee-related injuries). But Lux has no options, so I expect him to be on the Opening Day roster with some kind of role that includes reps at second base. Palacios has one more option year remaining, so he may be on the outside-looking-in this spring.

Lux has been a roughly average producer in his career. He pairs below average power with an above average hit tool to provide value at multiple positions. Lux’s acquisition continues the trend we’ve seen this offseason where the Rays are leaning more into bat-to-ball ability, possibly at the expense of power and impact.

The second base depth chart took a hit when Brandon Lowe was traded away, but it looks to be in an okay spot now with Lux. I think recent returnee Brett Wisely might not have a seat on the roster when the music stops at the end of spring training. He’s almost certainly behind both Lux and Palacios on the depth chart as a LH utility guy who can play a decent second base. Wisely is also out of options, so he might not even make it to AAA to serve as depth.

Long-term impact of the trade

This trade doesn’t end at Melton and Lux though. I think the main target in this trade was Chris Clark.

Clark is a low-slot RHP with a fastball that sits in the low 90s and can touch 95-96 at times. He’s 6’4, so his lower release height relative to his frame coupled with above average extension adds a layer of deception that helps his stuff play up a bit. He primarily works off an average two-seam fastball in the zone, and he has flashed a four-seam variant for whiffs above the zone.

Clark’s best pitch is his low 80s sweepy breaking ball. It’s an above average pitch that he’s comfortable throwing to both sides of the plate and he has plus feel for it. Clark also has shown a mid 80s offspeed pitch that looks like a split or kick grip with above average vertical separation from his fastball. While it might not be a viable offering yet, I think that it might be an above average pitch someday if he can continue to refine his command of it and maybe find a way to add some velocity separation from the fastball (that could mean adding more heat to the fastball or subtracting some from the offspeed pitch).

The command and control across Clark’s arsenal looks average and he doesn’t currently generate a ton of swing and miss, so he fits the profile of a backend starter right now; however, if he continues to develop his offspeed pitch or add a cutter to bridge his fastball and breaking ball shapes, I could see a mid-rotation starter. His feel for spin evident in his breaking ball suggests a cutter might be relatively easy for him to add to his toolbox.

Either way, Clark doesn’t appear to have much reliever risk as there’s room to add velocity, more pitches, and even refine his command.

Conclusion

The Rays traded from a position of surplus at the major league level to gain a pitching prospect they’ve potentially coveted while simultaneously filling a gap at second base in the short-term.

Interestingly, Gavin Lux is essentially Richie Palacios without options, as they have nearly identical power, plate skills, and defensive versatility.

Chris Clark is a slower-burn development project for Winston Doom and his team, but I think if we squint, we can see a potential mid rotation starter with interesting release traits and a pair of solid secondary pitches.

The Tampa Bay Rays, Anaheim Angels and Cincinnati Reds have made an interesting three-team trade that has former Rangers pitcher Brock Burke going from Anaheim to Cincinnati, Chris Clark going from Anaheim to Tampa, Gavin Lux going from Cincinnati to Tampa, and Josh Lowe going from Tampa to Anaheim.

From Anaheim’s perspective, this is a move that fits in with what they’ve been doing all offseason — acquiring players coming off a bad year(s) but who have been successful in the past, in the hope of recapturing that past glory. Lowe, a lefthanded hitting right fielder who turns 28 next month, and who is the younger brother of former Ranger first baseman Nathaniel Lowe, had a big 2023 season for the Rays, slashing .292/.335/.500 in 501 plate appearances, going 32 for 35 on the basepaths, and putting up a 3.7 bWAR.

Lowe has not come close to that the past two seasons, however. In 2024-25, he has put up a .230/.292/.378 slash line in 822 plate appearances with a 0.8 bWAR, albeit while continuing to be very good on the basepaths (43 of 48 on stolen base attempts). He has especially struggled against lefthanded pitchers, putting up a 459 OPS in 2025 and a 547 OPS in 2024.

So Lowe would seem to be, at this point, a marginal platoon outfielder. He is, however, in just his first year of arbitration eligibility, and is under team control through 2028. If the Angels can get him hitting again like they did in 2023, they have a pretty good player for a decent period of time.

The cost to the Angels is fairly slight. Burke, a 29 year old lefty, was originally acquired by the Rangers from Tampa in a different three-team trade seven years. After having his career de-railed due to shoulder issues, Burke ended up being a surprisingly good member of the Rangers’ bullpen in 2022. He regressed in 2023, though, and ended up being waived early in 2024 after putting up a 9.22 ERA in 13 innings. He was claimed on waivers by the Angels and has been a useful middle reliever for them since then, with a 3.40 ERA in 82 innings over 90 appearances.

Burke is a free agent after 2026, as is Lux, so the Reds are not gaining or losing anything from a team control perspective in this swap. Lux was once a consensus top 10 prospect in MLB while coming up in teh Los Angeles Dodgers’ system, and his presence was part of the reason the Dodgers were willing to let Corey Seager depart. Lux missed all of 2023 due to injury, though. Upon his return in 2024, he slashed .251/.320/.383 while splitting time between second base and shortstop.

The Reds acquired Lux for outfielder Mike Sirota and a competitive balance pick last offseason in a deal that worked out great for L.A., as Sirota is now their #3 prospect (per BA) after posting an OPS in excess of 1000 while splitting the 2025 season between low-A and high-A, and they used the draft pick of Arkansas outfielder Charles Davalan, their #6 prospect, per BA.

Lux put up a good OBP but hit for little power in 2025, slashing .269/.350/.374 with 5 homers in 503 plate appearances while splitting time between DH, left field, and second base. The Reds apparently saw enough, and cashed him in for Brock.

This doesn’t look like a real exciting return for the Rays. Lux gives them a multi-positional guy who gets on base, and we know that they like that, but they only get him for a year. Clark was a 2023 5th round pick out of Harvard who hasn’t made BA’s top 30 list for the Angels either of the past two seasons.

For at least one season, the New York Mets' lineup should once again be elite, and a treacherous prospect for opposing pitchers. 

Their Jan. 16 agreement with infielder Bo Bichette on a three-year, $126 million deal doesn't necessarily replace departed slugger Pete Alonso, but invigorates the lineup with one of the game's most elite hitters. 

And Mets fans still crying over the loss of No. 1 free agent Kyle Tucker to the Los Angeles Dodgers are now reminded that they have plenty of All-Stars and future Hall of Famers, too. 

Combined with $765 million man Juan Soto and perpetual All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor, Bichette both lengthens and diversifies New York's lineup. Bichette banged out 181 hits in 139 games in 2025, and twice led the AL in hits, in 2021 (191) and 2022 (189). 

It also lessens the reliance on young cornermen Mark Vientos and Brett Baty, who will still get plate appearances at first, third and designated hitter, along with previous acquisition Jorge Polanco.  But don't get too comfortable: Bichette has opt-out clauses after the first two years of this deal, and a healthy and regularly productive 2026 season means he'll almost certainly hit the market again next winter at age 28.

Mets projected starting lineup with Bo Bichette

1. Francisco Lindor, SS
2. Juan Soto, RF
3. Bo Bichette, 3B
4. Jorge Polanco, 1B
5. Marcus Semien, 2B
6. Mark Vientos / Brett Baty, DH
7. Francisco Alvarez, C
8. Carson Benge, LF (prospect)
9. Tyrone Taylor, CF

Kyler Tucker, the top free agent on the market, just signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers. He signed a 4-year deal that pays him $60 million a year. Just like last offseason, the defending champs are pretty much buying an All-Star team. As much as some people do not want to admit it, the MLB has a Dodgers problem. However, the Washington Nationals are also a problem for the MLB.

With the CBA expiring after this season, baseball has a lot of problems to resolve. They have to solve the Dodgers problem and the Nationals problem. One team is a financial super power with unprecedented access to cash, while the other team refuses to give out free agent contracts worth more than $15 million.

All of this is alienating fans and setting the stage for an inevitable showdown at the CBA negotiation table. Fans have pretty much come to terms with the fact that there will be a lockout next year. The only question now is how long will the work stoppage last. Hopefully it does not eliminate the entire season.

It is crystal clear that the MLB financial system is broken. Right now, the Dodgers are paying more in luxury tax bills than 11 teams are in total payroll. On both ends of the spectrum, that is a problem. Fans do not want to see teams buy a dynasty, but they also do not want to see other teams not try to win at all.

This is why many fans are warming up to the idea of a salary cap and salary floor system. It is what we see in the NBA, NFL and NHL. This system works well also. We see non-traditional markets succeed in a way that would be impossible to pull off in the MLB. In this system, the Kansas City Royals creating a dynasty would be basically impossible. 

Some fans argue that any owner can spend like the Dodgers. Maybe that was true five or six years ago, but this just ignores the economic reality of the situation now. Including the luxury tax, the Dodgers expenses are over half a billion at this point. There are only a handful of teams that could sustain that level of spending.

Some fans may not want to admit it, but the MLB has a serious Dodgers problem. Their insane TV deal, access to international markets and hedge fund led ownership group gives them a situation other teams cannot compete with. This is fun for Dodgers fans, but a real bummer for the other 29 fanbases.

However, the Dodgers are not the only problem the MLB is going to have to deal with. The Washington Nationals represent the other side of the coin. After winning the World Series in 2019 with a top 10 payroll, Nationals ownership suddenly stopped spending money.

It has gotten to the point where the Nats are one of the most frugal teams in all of baseball. On the surface, it appears as if Nats ownership has totally checked out. That is a problem and is alienating the fanbase. Since the 2020-21 offseason, the Nats have not given out a free agent contract worth more than $15 million. This is honestly a slap in the face for fans.

A salary floor is needed in this sport. As smart as teams like the Brewers and Rays are, they will never overcome the financial firepower of the Dodgers. Even the bigger market teams are struggling to keep up with the financial Goliath that is the Los Angeles Dodgers.

When the Nats and Dodgers take the field for the Nationals home opener, there will be 14 players making at least $10 million. All 14 of them will be wearing Dodgers blue. This is just an example of a system that is completely broken.

Forget about owners vs players for a second, this system is not in the best interest of the consumer. Baseball is built on the backs of the fans. Right now, the system is not working for the fans. Only three or four teams have any chance to grab the real free agents. We pretty much know who will win the World Series already.

The CBA is looming like a dark shadow over the league right now. Nobody is happy with the status quo at the moment and there is a real appetite for change among fans. Owners will be fighting for a salary cap, and for the first time in recent memory, the fans will be behind them.

However, a salary cap simply will not work without a floor. The Dodgers are not the only problem here. Teams like the Nationals are just as big of an issue. The Nationals are not a small market club, but ownership is spending like that. They have thrown in the towel. This is not only bad for Nats fans, but also the sport.

A work stoppage is coming after this season. Hopefully the fans are considered in these negotiations. I have my doubts because the more likely scenario is the owners and players fighting for their own interests. As the MLB grows as a financial entity, it feels like the fans are being left behind.

Jeff Passan is reporting that the Mets and Bo Bichette have agreed to a three-year, $126 million contract. That is $41.5 million a year, which is more than I would want to pay him, but I would want him on a short contract like they got. It also seems like a lot of money for a second baseman.

I’m sad that I’m not going get to watch him play every day. I’m a fan.

I’d imagine that the Jays are finished with major signings, unless there is a closer out there that they would like more than Hoffman.

Such is life.

In the seven seasons he was with the Jays, Bo hit .294/.337/.469 with 111 home runs, and a 21.0 bWAR in 748 games.

Update: Apparently Bo has an opt-out after each of the first two seasons, and there are no deferrals. He’s going to play third base.

Not even 24 hours after losing out on the Kyle Tucker sweepstakes, the Mets pivoted and signed, perhaps, the best hitter still on the market, inking Bo Bichettte to a three-year, $126 million contract. The contract has no deferrals, a full no-trade clause, and features opt-outs after the first two seasons, as well as a $5 million ’opt out bonus’. Bichette, son of former MLB All-Star Dante Bichette is entering his age 28 season and is a career .294/.337/.483 hitter, playing primarily shortstop in his big league career thus far.

It is the positional question that is most interesting in this signing, as the Mets’ middle infield is fairly set, with Francisco Lindor locked in at shortstop, the recently acquired, reigning Gold Glove winner Marcus Semien at second base, and Brett Baty seemingly finally getting a shot to play everyday at third. Whether Bichette plans to play third or first or if one of the already entrenched players is potentially going to move positions or perhaps be traded all remains to be seen.

Update: Jon Heyman cites sources claiming Bichette will be playing third base for the Mets.

Bichette has battled injuries over the past two seasons, missing half of 2024 with a right calf strain and a fractured middle finger and missing the last month of the 2025 regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs with a left knee injury. This big money, short term deal with opt-outs allows him to rebuild his value, prove his health and test free agency again.

The New York Mets' largely moribund off-season took a dramatic turn for the better Jan. 16, as the club agreed to terms with All-Star shortstop Bo Bichette on a three-year, $126 million deal, according to a baseball official with direct knowledge of the deal.

The person spoke to USA TODAY Sports on condition of anonymity because the deal has not been finalized.

Bichette's stay in New York could be a brief one: He has opt-out clauses after each of the first two seasons, and can reenter the free agent market at 28 next winter, unencumbered by draft-pick compensation.

Bichette was the last premier free agent available and his agreement with the Mets comes just hours after slugger Kyle Tucker, the consensus No. 1 player on the market, spurned them for a four-year, $160 million deal. Now, the Mets have an admirable infield alignment and, once again, a daunting lineup, with Bichette likely to play third base, All-Star Francisco Lindor at shortstop, trade acquisition Marcus Semien at second and a combination of Jorge Polanco and Mark Vientos at first.

Bichette, the former Toronto Blue Jays' shortstop, played a pivotal role in the team's trip to the 2025 World Series, posting a .311/.357/.483 slash line in 139 regular season games before sitting out the first two rounds of the playoffs due to a knee injury. He returned and had eight hits and a key home run in the Blue Jays' seven-game World Series loss to the Dodgers.

Here's everything to know regarding Bichette's new contract.

In an emphatic pivot, the Mets are signing infielder Bo Bichette to a three-year deal, per multiple reports.

The contract is worth $126 million, contains two opt-outs, and does not have any deferrals.

New York's agreement with Bichette comes less than 24 hours after Kyle Tucker chose to sign with the Dodgers for four years and $240 million after turning down the Mets' offer of four years and $220 million.

Before signing with the Mets, Bichette had been heavily linked to the Phillies and a possible reunion with the Blue Jays. The Yankees had also reportedly checked in.

With the Mets adding Bichette to play third base, there are plenty of ways they can go with the rest of the infield.

One possibility has Brett Baty sliding to first base and Jorge Polanco serving as the primary DH.

It's also possible the Mets explore the trade market for Baty, possibly in an effort to fill a need in the outfield.

Bichette, who turns 28 in March, had let interested teams know he was willing to move off shortstop, which opened the door for the Mets (and other teams who had the middle infield filled) to pounce.

In 139 games last season for the Jays, Bichette slashed .311/.357/.483 with a 129 OPS+. He had 18 home runs, 44 doubles, and 94 RBI.

As far as his advanced numbers via Baseball Savant, Bichette was near the top of the league in xBA, xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, sweet spot percentage, whiff percentage, and strikeout percentage.

During his seven-year career -- all with Toronto -- Bichette has hit .294/.337/.469 over 748 games.

A two-time All-Star, Bichette has finished in the top 20 in AL MVP voting four times.

Regarding what comes next for the Mets after inking Bichette, it's likely they'll continue to look for an outfielder and a pitcher who can slot in near the top of their rotation.

Possible outfield targets via trade include Jarren Duran of the Red Sox, Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar of the Cardinals, and Ramon Laureano of the Padres.

Potential starting options include free agent Framber Valdez and trade option Freddy Peralta, who is being dangled by the Brewers.

The mid-2000s were a strange time for the Yankees. The dynasty of the ‘90s engineered a hangover that lasted almost ten years, where the team regularly returned strong lineups but lacked the pitching depth or that elusive “clutch” gene. In some ways, Gary Sheffield might be the poster boy for this period — he never had a bad regular season for the Yankees, but his first campaign with the team ended in the disaster that was 2004, and the club never got closer than that while he was in pinstripes.

Sheffield’s one of the great mercenaries in the history of baseball, an uber-talented hitter who walked around with a king-sized chip on his shoulder. He made the All-Star team nine times and won five Silver Sluggers during stints with eight teams, winning a ring with the 1997 Florida Marlins. That was already his third team in MLB, and he would be dealt away in ‘98 to the Dodgers, although I’ll attribute that decision more to the infamous post-World Series fire sale than anything to do with his personality. Shef did publicly state how embarrassed he was by the team’s teardown, but that’s not an attitude problem — that’s a statement of fact.

LA and Atlanta followed, and by the time December 2003 rolled around, Sheffield had logged 13 consecutive seasons of excellent hitting, with his worst year being a 123 wRC+ in 1993, split between the Padres and Marlins. The less said about his defense the better, but if you were looking to add a bat and some headlines, you could do a lot worse than Gary Sheffield.

Gary Sheffield
Signing Date: December 19, 2003
Contract: Three years, $39 million

Signed one year to the day after Hideki Matsui, the Yankees were clearly leaning into the bat-first approach — they had Derek Jeter at shortstop Opening Day instead of the shiny new toy Alex Rodriguez. GM Brian Cashman wanted the team to add erstwhile Montreal Expos standout Vladimir Guerrero and reportedly had an agreed-upon contract. But owner George Steinbrenner picked Sheffield, won over by his buggy-whip power swing and close ties to Steinbrenner’s adopted home of Tampa (not to mention a relation to uncle/former New York star Dwight Gooden).

That first season was a tear for Sheff, as he finished runner-up for AL MVP, walloping 36 homers and leading the Yankees in RBI, runs scored, and OPS+. That ugly defense meant he posted just 3.8 fWAR, and the man who actually won MVP was none other than Guerrero. Nonetheless, Sheffield was the offensive force the club was hoping for. He was shuffled between third, fourth, and fifth in the Yankee lineup, producing wherever Joe Torre set him.

His first taste of October in the Bronx went well enough too, on the personal production side anyway. A 134 wRC+, .904 OPS line should be more than enough to placate even the toughest Yankee fans, but of course the end result of that postseason push left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth. Sheffield managed just a single base hit in 17 plate appearances in those doomed four games against Boston, just one of many Bombers who became duds on arguably the biggest stage in baseball history.

The kicker to all this was the season was played while Sheffield worked through a shoulder tear, one that would require surgery in the offseason. Herein lies maybe the most interesting thing about Gary — his attitude questions were real, and he had an ejection history a mile long:

The man was expelled from his Little League team for chasing a coach around at practice with a bat!

Despite that, he would unquestionably chew through concrete to perform at the highest level. He was the best fulltime hitter for the Yankees in his first season while playing with one-and-a-half arms. How much of that was sheer willpower and how much was pharmaceutically driven we’ll never know, but having a bat like Sheffield’s in your lineup would make any team better.

That first season would be Gary’s best, but 2005 was no off-year. A 137 wRC+ came in a year where he once again walked more than he struck out, but an ill-timed magazine story quoted him as possibly shading Jeter and A-Rod as “two players [covered] in a positive light, and everyone else is garbage” hung over yet another run toward October. Against the Angels that fall, Sheffield’s rather interesting defensive instincts were on full display in a fifth concsecutive disappointing postseason for the Yankees.

Poor Bubba Crosby.

That and a 65 wRC+ in an abbreviated October meant the funk was truly setting in for the Yankees, who were roundly becoming the uber-regular season team that fell on its face come playoff time. It wouldn’t get better the next year for Sheffield or the team either, as the slugger was laid low with a wrist injury and appeared in just 39 games. Sidelined for months, the win-now Yankees had to pivot and traded for a new right fielder in the more well-rounded Bobby Abreu. So when Sheffield returned, the Yankees got creative and stuck him at the open first base position with Jason Giambi at DH (primarily because of a wrist injury, but also because the Giambino was far from Don Mattingly on defense). He had never appeared at first before but was a good team sport about it adapting over the final nine games of the regular season. But Sheffield went 1-for-12 in yet another dreadful postseason run and that sealed the end of Gary’s time in New York.

The club did pick up his 2007 team option but sent the disgruntled star to the same team that had just eliminated them in the 2006 ALDS, the Detroit Tigers. Sheffield spent three more years in the bigs, coming to Queens sitting on 499 career home runs:

Gary Sheffield’s Yankee tenure was the epitome of George Steinbrenner’s leadership style. The Yankees outbid anyone they wanted for the biggest star available, even if the fit wasn’t exactly right, the player wasn’t as complete as he could be, or the team wasn’t as well-rounded as it should be. Excellent lineups, bad defense, and shaky pitching was the calling card of those mid-2000s teams, and Sheffield supplied two of those three.

Sheffield probably has a Hall of Fame resume, but his connections to BALCO, listing in the Mitchell Report, and productivity in his later years are all in concert with challenges other PED-linked players have found on their incomplete trips to Cooperstown. He’ll likely never have a plaque there, and his time in New York never got past the finish line, but he remains one of the most unique and feared hitters in baseball history. If I were to compile a list of players I’d most want modern Statcast data on, most want to dig into those underlying hitting tools like exit velocity, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and Barry Bonds would be at the very top, but Gary Sheffield wouldn’t be far behind.

See more of the “50 Most Notable Yankees Free Agent Signings in 50 Years” series here.

The Colorado Rockies officially signed 34-year-old RHP Michael Lorenzen to a one-year, $8 million deal on Thursday morning after the signing was first reported last Wednesday. Lorenzen met with the media over Zoom on Thursday afternoon to discuss his ties to the Rockies and his excitement about working with this team.

“One of the things [that drew me to Colorado] is just that I feel like it’s untapped, and I don’t think you could say that about anywhere else in Major League Baseball,” Lorenzen said. 

“It feels like there’s a lot of new information to be learned, and that’s kind of right up my alley. I enjoy problem solving. Failure is going to happen; trials are going to happen; you’re going to get your teeth kicked in. But it’s the problem solving and how to make the adjustments that I really enjoy. And Colorado, I feel like, presents that opportunity.”

“We didn’t have to convince him of anything,” PBO Paul DePodesta added in a separate Zoom meeting earlier in the day. 

“He ran toward this challenge. Michael actively wanted to pitch here. He’s done a lot of different things in his career – he was an outfielder, he’s been a reliever, he’s been a starting pitcher. I don’t think he’s afraid of anything. He’s also got some history with some of our staff members, so I think there was some appeal there as well.”

Lorenzen’s ties to the new Rockies pitching staff were definitely an extra enticer to sign with the team, and he’s known a lot of them for a long time.

“I’ve known Alon [Leichman] since 2017, I want to say, before he was in pro ball. I’ve known him for a really long time, and he and I have kept in touch throughout the years,” Lorenzen said. “So when he told me he was interviewing for the job, I was stoked for him, and he mentioned that he was going to try and bring me in if he ended up getting the job, which is pretty cool that we’re able to work together.

And as far as the other coaches go, Lorenzen mentioned that he knew pitching coordinator Matt Daniels from his time at Driveline in 2017; he knew assistant pitching coach Gabe Ribas from their time together with the Detroit Tigers in 2023; he knew Jeff Pickler from their time together with the Cincinnati Reds, where Pickler was the bench coach; and he knew Brett Pill from their time at Cal State Fullerton.

Lorenzen brings a six-pitch arsenal to Coors Field (though according to Baseball Savant, he has seven, and Lorenzen says he’s planning to bring out another one next year). 

And it was actually the pitching coach of the Philadelphia Phillies, Caleb Cotham, who helped Lorenzen understand pitch shapes to expand his repertoire.

“[He] helped me understand in detail what causes a pitch to do certain things, and I kind of made it my own,” Lorenzen said. 

“I was able to create a consistent sweeper; I was able to create a consistent gyro (sweeper); and I know what I’m trying to do with the cutter. So all of a sudden, I feel like I own my shapes and when I’m trying to manipulate the ball, I can. I just know what I’m trying to do. I know what I’m looking for. I know the feel I’m trying to create. But obviously being in Colorado is going to have its challenges, so I’ll be making my way up there soon to throw some bullpens and see exactly how these shapes are going to move. 

“And that’ll give me an idea of how I can use each one,” he continued. “Do I pick three of them? Do I lean on certain three more than others when I’m pitching in the altitude? So we’ll see. But I would say I’ve got three fastballs and two different changeups. Now I’ve got the sweeper, the slider, and the curveball.”

Lorenzen’s intensity intrigues DePodesta.

“I’d say part of the appeal for him is that he’s a very good strike thrower and pitches with an aggressive mentality,” DePodesta added. “He’s going to go after the hitter, he’s going to make the hitter beat him, he’s going to attack the strike zone, and he has a deep arsenal of pitches. Here at Coors in particular, we need to find different ways to keep hitters off balance, and I think having a deep arsenal is at least one of those ways.”

That all being said, Lorenzen is excited to be in Colorado for this next chapter of his career and to help this team get back in the thick of things.

“I don’t care how many games were lost last year,” he continued. “Every guy is one adjustment away from being one of the best in the game, and there’s a lot of low-hanging fruit that can be changed. We’ll see performance increase, and so I think there’s a lot of easy ways to get better and I’m really excited.”

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Prior entries:

• Matt Olson
• Michael Harris II
• Ozzie Albies
• Bryce Elder

The Braves haven’t had too fun of a time lately. Neither has Austin Riley. This isn’t a pure coincidence — a thermonuclear Austin Riley can carry a team for a month, and the Braves haven’t gotten that, for one reason or another, for a while. While the team has maneuvered to be different in terms of coaching and roster construction in 2026, Riley’s production is going to be a big part of whatever the team’s fortune will be going forward.

Career-to-date, status

2026 will be Riley’s eighth MLB season; he’ll turn 29 right around Opening Day. For his career, he has a 122 wRC+ and below-average defense. He’s solidly in well-above-average territory with a career 3.5 fWAR per 600 PAs to date, but that’s very much an average, as he had three straight 5+ fWAR seasons from 2021-2023 but has managed just 4.1 fWAR in his last two seasons combined.

A substantial xwOBA underperformance, like most of his teammates, made Riley’s 2024 look worse than it was. Consistently maligned by defensive metrics, Riley had a bit of a defensive breakout in 2023, but didn’t really sustain it in 2024. Still, it was better than getting worse as he aged.

Riley holds the most lucrative contract in Braves history, signing a $212 million, ten-year deal that includes a club option for an eleventh season in August 2022. He’s due to make $22 million annually in 2026 and every year onward through 2032; his club option has a $20 million salary with no buyout.

Recent performance

As noted, Riley’s production took a dip in 2024 and then again in 2025. The former was not “really” his fault, as his .361 xwOBA in 2024 was in line with his .365 xwOBA in 2023. After a slow start to 2024 outputs-wise, he was hitting really well (not thermonuclear on outputs, but definitely beautiful inputs) in the summer before a hit-by-pitch ended his season.

2025 was more of a struggle for various reasons. His xwOBA dipped to .328, and it was right around that range in both June and July before he succumbed to a series of abdominal strains that necessitated season-ending core surgery. His struggles were very generic: more swing and miss in the zone, but ostensibly without any conscious attempt to do so in order to increase power output — in other words, more swing and miss, worse contact quality. Not what you want to see.

There’s not too much to say beyond that — Riley was just worse, but not really in a way that his teammates were worse in terms of trading power for walks or anything. Whether that bodes well or poorly for him going forward is an open question. Defensively, he rebounded a bit relative to 2024 and looked similar to 2023. At this point, Riley probably won’t be a good defender at third base, but his hard work seems to have moved him from outright bad to okay.

Forecasting

Same brief disclaimer: once upon a time I built a projection system to try to mirror/get at the workings of Steamer and ZiPS. I called it IWAG. You can figure out what that means, maybe. I’m bringing it back for this series of posts. Here’s Riley, for 2026.

You can see the injuries being priced in a bit here, and IWAG forecasts Riley’s wRC+ considerably below his career mark of 122. That latter phenomenon occurs because, well, there’s no good or simple explanation for his 2025 offensively — he just looked kind of broken, even leaving the xwOBA underperformance aside.

This aligns almost exactly with Steamer (3 WAR in 601 PAs, 116 wRC+); ZiPS is the “outlier” as it seems to push his career line forward moreso than any debit for 2025.

The probability distribution from IWAG here is a bit silly due to Riley’s recent injuries — you can see that the distribution of talent is a reasonably normal-looking curve that probably aligns with what you expect, but IWAG figures “injured and ineffective” is more likely than “injured and effective” or “fully healthy and effective,” based on our lived experience of Braves trying to play through injury to no good outcome recently, hence the dip in the middle.

Your turn

Alright, I’ve given you the info. Well, some info. You may have your own info. With that, I ask you:

• Rounded to the nearest fWAR, how much will Austin produce in 2026? (I am once again seriously inveighing that if you ignore this and provide a partial fWAR, I will round it for you, and your scoring will not be based on 1 WAR around your point estimate, but 1 WAR around the rounded number. Just a pick whole number and don’t make me round.)
• How confident are you in your choice? Go with a scale from 1-5, where 3 is “I dunno, reasonably confident,” 5 is certain, and 1 is “I am participating but have no confidence in my choice and don’t want the fact that it will likely be incorrect to affect my place in any theoretical standings all that much.”

The Dodgers signed Kyle Tucker, landing the top free agent on the market with an eye-popping four-year, $240 million contract. After setting competitive balance tax records in each of thelast two seasons, this move ensured they will stay in that area for at least two more years, if not longer.

But along with the pure financial cost of signing Tucker — $60 million per year on average, or $57.1 million AAV for competitive balance tax purposes accounting for deferrals — comes another penalty.

Tucker was one of nine free agents to reject a qualifying offer in November. Any new team that signs such a player faces a draft-pick loss. As a competitive balance tax payer, the Dodgers’ penalty for signing a qualifying-offer free agent is forfreiting their second- and fifth-highest draft picks. If this sounds familiar, it’s because the Dodgers already signed a qualifying-offer free agent by adding Edwin Díaz in December.

Signing free agents with a qualifying offer isn’t new for the Dodgers, having brought in A.J. Pollock (2019), Trevor Bauer (2021), Freddie Freeman (2022), and Shohei Ohtani (2024) previously. But this is the first time they’ve signed two in the same offseason.

Because the Dodgers gave up their second and fifth-highest picks for signing Díaz, their penalty for adding Tucker will be losing their third and sixth-round selections this July. That leaves a relatively bare cupboard at the top of their draft board for 2026.

The Dodgers’ first-round pick would normally be 30th overall, at the end of the first round after winning the World Series. But because they surpassed the third competitive balance tax threshold last season — they also blew past the fourth (highest) threshold, too — the Dodgers will see their first pick drop 10 slots to 40th overall. We saw this in both 2022and 2024 as well.

The 2026 draft order isn’t yet finalized, as there are still three qualifying-offer free agents remaining on the market — Framber Valdez, Bo Bichette, and Zac Gallen. But we have at least a general idea of when the Dodgers will pick in July.

A team’s draft bonus pool is comprised of the recommended slot values of every pick that team has in the first 10 rounds. Every signing bonus from the first 10 rounds is counted against the pool, as is any amount over $150,000 for picks after the 10th round. Teams are allowed to exceed the bonus pool, with a 75-percent tax on any overage up to five percent over the pool. Any overage above five percent would result in the loss of draft picks. In the 15 years of this system, no MLB team has spent enough to incur this draft-pick penalty.

But the bottom line is the Dodgers will have less to spend than probably any other year of the draft slotting system. If we use the 2025 slot values for each estimated Dodgers pick in 2026, that comes to $3,819,900. The slots and bonus pools increased by 8.7 percent from 2023 to 2024, but only went up by 4.8 percent from 2024 to 2025. If those total Dodgers slot values increase by 4.8 percent this year, they’ll have $4,003,255 to spend. If it goes up by 8.7 percent, they’ll have $4,152,231 to spend.

Either way, it’ll be their lowest bonus pool in the 16 years of the draft slotting system. Their previous low was in 2022 with $4,223,800 to spend, a little below 2021 when their bonus pool was $4,646,700. The Dodgers had a higher bonus pool even in 2020 ($5,928,500) when the draft was truncated to only five rounds.

SNY's Joe DeMayo answers your Mets prospect questions...

How high is Dylan Ross’ ceiling? Feels like his future as a reliever has him being a bit undervalued on prospect lists, but the stuff looks like it could potentially dominate major league hitters given the chance - @aschorling34

Ross was called up by the Mets during the last weekend of the 2025 season, but did not get into any of the final three games against Miami.

The Mets selected Ross in the 13th round of the 2022 MLB Draft out of the University of Georgia. He underwent a Tommy John revision and did not make his professional debut until Sept. 7, 2024, the next-to-last game of Low-A St. Lucie’s season.

In 2025, Ross pitched at three minor league levels, spending most of his time with Triple-A Syracuse. In a combined 54 innings, he posted a 2.17 ERA, allowing only 29 hits and striking out 80 batters. His bugaboo was the 33 walks he issued.

While he will likely never have plus command, there is thought in the organization that with more reps (he has thrown just a combined 66.2 innings since 2022), the command should improve.

Ross is a pure power reliever, with a fastball that will sit at 97 mph and touch 101. That isn’t his best pitch, though, as scouts will give the nod to his low-90s splitter that minor league hitters could not touch, with a 48.3 percent whiff rate. He supplements it with an upper-80s slider that he didn’t throw as much, but had an even higher whiff rate of 67.7 percent.

If Ross can put some more command together, I look at him as someone with high-leverage, setup type potential. He should be squarely in the competition for one of the spots in the Mets bullpen on Opening Day.

When this current top of the farm system graduates, what kind of position will the Mets system be in? Will the Mets still have a high-ranked system, or will it take a few years to get back to the point they are at? - @GreatOnPaperNYM

In general, minor league systems and their rankings generally have ebbs and flows. Right now, the Mets have one of the best farm systems in baseball.

But to your point, there are likely to be multiple graduations in 2026. It starts with the three top arms of Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong,and Brandon Sproat.

Outfielder Carson Benge has a chance to crack the Opening Day roster, if not shortly thereafter. Infielder/center fielder Jett Williams, first baseman Ryan Clifford, and relievers Ross and Ryan Lambert are some other names who could potentially be up in 2026 and appear in enough games to graduate.

Whether it is all, or most of the above names, that is as many as six of the top 10 prospects in the system graduating from prospect status.

The Mets' next wave of prospects includes players with high ceilings like A.J. Ewing and Elian Peña, bats that look like future big leaguers in Jacob Reimer and Mitch Voit, as well as another group of pitchers in Jonathan Santucci, Jack Wenninger, and Will Watson. The Mets' most recent international signing, Wandy Asigen,should immediately profile somewhere around the top half of the top 30 with huge upside, but he's years away.

The goal of the organization under senior VP of player development Andy Green certainly includes not having that “dip” last long. A few years would not be considered an acceptable outcome internally. There is a draft every year, and there is international free agency every year as two mechanisms to add talent to the system. The Mets also need to continue developing prospects the way they have the last couple of seasons.

Specifically, they have excelled in pitching development under vice president of pitching Eric Jagers, especially given that they haven’t signed a first-round pick who was a pitcher since David Peterson. Among the six pitchers ranked in the top 12 of the system, only Sproat and Santucci were picked in the first two rounds. Only McLean was picked in the top three. The Mets have been able to identify the right pitchers to draft and have proven to be able to make them better as professionals.

The hitting development took a stride forward in 2025 under Jeff Albert, who is now on the major league coaching staff. There were breakout years from prospects like Benge, Ewing, and Nick Morabito, as well as bounce back years from Williams and Reimer. That momentum needs to be carried into 2026.

The Mets believe they have the infrastructure in place with their scouting and player development departments to sustain a well-regarded farm year over year. While it is fair to expect the system to dip in some public rankings in the next few months, it should not be for an extended period if they are executing their plan.

Major League Baseball's free agent season has finally passed the midway point and is headed for home.

With Kyle Tucker's landmark agreement with the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Mets' lightning-strike pivot to Bo Bichette, half of USA TODAY Sports' top free agents at the outset of winter have found homes, including seven of the top 10. Outfielder Cody Bellinger is now the best position player available, and several difference-making starting pitchers can be had.

But time is running out, with spring training camps opening beginning Feb. 10. A ranking of the top remaining free agents, and a look at who's already signed:

(Ages as of April 1)

1. Framber Valdez (32, LHP, Astros)

Not sure if he’ll sniff the Max Fried rent district for lefty starters but it never hurts when you’re literally one of two on the market. Valdez is consistently right around 200 innings, has a championship pedigree and suppresses the home run ball. Not an ideal conclusion to his Houston era, but it’s also easy enough to hand him the ball and set your alarm clock for September.

2. Cody Bellinger (30, OF/1B, Yankees)

Bellinger topped the 150-game mark for the first time since 2019 and had an excellent season his one year in the Bronx – producing 5.1 WAR, hitting 29 homers and playing typically sound defense. Given his health history, there will be some risk wagering on a hale Bellinger for the next five-plus years – but his overall skill set will be difficult to ignore.

3. Zac Gallen (30, RHP, Diamondbacks)

He led the NL in WHIP (0.91) and the majors in fewest hits per nine innings (5.9) in 2022, but regressed to 1.26 and 8.3/8.1 the past two seasons. He was much better once the trade deadline passed, posting a 3.32 ERA in his last 11 starts.

4. Lucas Giolito (31, RHP, Red Sox)

Giolito finally turned the page on a pair of injury-ravaged seasons to make 26 starts and post a 3.41 ERA, enough to comfortably decline his $19 million player option. Giolito completed at least six innings in 15 of his 26 starts, though he missed a playoff outing with elbow soreness.

Another Brian Cashman/Hal Steinbrenner vs. David Stearns/Steve Cohen battle for a top free agent may be on tap.

After Kyle Tucker spurned the Mets by going to the Dodgers on a four-year, $240 million deal, it could potentially lead to the Yankees and Mets battling for Cody Bellinger.

The Yankees have made it clear that Bellinger is their priority this offseason, while the Mets have shown interest in the talented outfielder/first baseman.

Having lost Pete Alonso to the Orioles and missed out on Tucker, it’s possible the Mets could turn their attention to Bellinger since there are really only two impact bats left in free agency in Bellinger and Bo Bichette.

With rumors linking the Phillies to Bichette and the Mets already having a shortstop and second baseman, it likely leaves Bellinger as their best option.

Bellinger, 30, has yet to sign since he’s in a standoff with the Yankees about contract length.

He and agent Scott Boras are seeking a seven-year pact, while The Post reported that the Yankees have offered $155 million over five years for a $31 million annual average value (AAV).

The Yankees have added two opt-outs to their offer in an attempt to make it more appealing.

That Bellinger hasn’t signed elsewhere is an indication that no other team has swooped in to top the Yankees’ offer and perhaps the Mets could choose to do so now.

The Mets’ four-year, $220 million offer showed they have plenty more to spend this offseason, although they may view Tucker and Bellinger on different levels.

Bellinger would fit the Mets’ roster well since he can play the outfield and first base, which provides value after Brandon Nimmo and Alonso exited this offseason.

With the Mets, Yankees and Blue Jays all in the market for another bat, the reality is that at least one of those teams will miss out on Bellinger and Bicehtte and be left scrambling.

There are quality hitters available in trades, such as the Cardinals’ Brendan Donovan, but that would cost prospect capital instead of strict dollars.