Connor Rogers and Joe DeMayo are proud to finally deliver a happy pod on the latest episode of The Mets Pod.
After a week of dramatic wins, which included a sweep of the Tigers, a Subway Series victory over the Yankees, and a 10-run 12th inning in Washington, Connor and Joe recap it all - including notes on Carson Benge, A.J. Ewing, Bo Bichette, Nick Morabito, Mark Vientos, and more, plus a pitch to the audience to come up with a different nickname for the Mets youth movement that is better than "Baby Mets."
The guys also go deep on the pitching, discussing Clay Holmes' injury, the call-up of Zach Thornton, and what Jonah Tong has been doing Down on the Farm.
The show wraps with a Mailbag featuring questions about the race back to a .500 record and what the lineup could look like once Francisco Lindor returns.
Be sure to subscribe to The Mets Pod at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
CINCINNATI, OHIO - MAY 14: Chase Burns #26 of the Cincinnati Reds throws a pitch against the Washington Nationals at Great American Ball Park on May 14, 2026 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It was not Kyle Schwarber who socked a backbreaking homer off the Cincinnati Reds on Monday night in Philadelphia. That honor went to Bryson Stott, who crushed Cincinnati’s dream of a come-from-behind victory with a 2-run shot off Graham Ashcraft in the Bottom of the 8th inning that turned a 4-3 Reds lead into a 5-4 Phillies victory.
Schwarber, though, will get more opportunities to keep sockin’ dingers on Tuesday against Reds pitching, with rising ace Chase Burns getting the start for Cincinnati in the second game of the series.
Burns enters play on Tuesday having been valued at 2.6 bWAR on the season already, a mark that’s fourth best in all of Major League Baseball and behind only Phillies star Cristopher Sanchez among players pitching in the senior circuit. Burns has been on a particularly brilliant role during the month of May, as he’s fired 19.0 IP across a trio of starts and yielded just a lone earned run in the process. He’s holding right-handed hitters to a ridiculous .124/.143/.169 (.311 OPS) so far this season, though lefties – like Schwarber! – own a much more robust .242/.348/.455 (.802) line against him with 5 of the 6 homers he’s yielded this year.
Lefty Jesus Luzardo will start for the Phillies, with first pitch set for 6:40 PM ET once again. With a southpaw on the mound, the Reds have tinkered with their lineup once again, with right-handed outfielders Blake Dunn and Dane Myers in the lineup. Matt McLain remains in the leadoff spot for a second straight day, and Sal Stewart will get a defensive break as the team’s DH for the night.
SURPRISE, AZ - OCTOBER 24: Nick Morabito #3 of the Scottsdale Scorpions runs to first base during the game between the Scottsdale Scorpions and the Surprise Saguaros at Surprise Stadium on Friday, October 24, 2025 in Surprise, Arizona. (Photo by Jill Weisleder/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Nick Morabito’s father and uncle both played baseball. His father Brian played at James Madison University in the late 80s and early 90s, and his uncle John played at Wake Forest University and then in the Chicago White Sox’ minor league system in the late 80s. With their genetics and coaching, Nick took to baseball, playing little league in and around Fairfax County in Virginia and Washington D.C., and then eventually attending Gonzaga College High School, a private Catholic college-prep school in D.C.
Initially, he was not on many radars, but by the end of his junior year, the outfielder had turned himself into a follow for scouts and evaluators. In 2022, he hit.545 for the Eagles with 10 doubles, 6 triples, 12 home runs, and 52 stolen bases, helping lead them to the Washington Catholic Athletic Conference and win the D.C. State Athletic Association title. Morabito won the Gatorade Player of the Year Award (Washington D.C.) and truly established himself as a bona fide high school prospect ahead of the 2022 MLB Draft.
With the 75th overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, obtained as compensation for Noah Syndergaard signing with the Los Angeles Angels, the Mets selected Nick Morabito. He already had a commitment to Virginia Tech but decided to forgo it after the Mets offered him a $1 million signing bonus, roughly $125,000 over the MLB-recommended slot value of $873,300. The organization assigned the speedy outfielder to the FCL Mets for the remainder of the season and the 19-year-old went 1-22 in his first taste of professional ball.
His poor performance at the end of the 2022 season, coupled with less-than-enthusiastic reports over the winter led many to question why the team had gone overlot to sign him, but Morabito flipped the script when he returned to the field for the 2023 season and began the year hitting .324/.437/.432 in 30 games in the complex, with 5 doubles, 2 triples, 1 home run, 11 steals, and 20 walks to 22 strikeouts. He was promoted to Single-A St. Lucie in August and finished the season with them, hitting .286/.403/.378 in 27 games with 4 doubles, 1 triple, 1 home run, 10 stolen bases, and 14 walks to 27 strikeouts. All in all, the 20-year-old hit .306/.421/.407 in 57 games combined, with 9 doubles, 3 triples, 2 home runs, 21 stolen bases in 25 attempts, and drew 34 walks to 49 strikeouts, just missing the 2024 Amazin’ Avenue Top 25 Mets Prospects list, garnering one 26th place vote.
Morabito remained in St. Lucie to start the 2024 season, and what a start it was. The 21-year-old center fielder appeared in 24 games for the St. Lucie Mets and hit an impressive .397/.530/.513 with 2 doubles, 2 triples, 1 home run, 11 stolen bases in 15 attempts, and 18 walks to 18 strikeouts, forcing a promotion to High-A Brooklyn in early May. He stayed in Coney Island for the rest of the season, and while he did slow down a bit, it was more a case of being unable to maintain such a torrid pace rather than looking overmatched. In 95 games, he hit .294/.373/.374 with 15 doubles, 3 triples, 3 home runs, 48 stolen bases in 59 attempts, and 42 walks to 80 strikeouts, setting the Cyclones single-season franchise record for hits (110) and stolen bases. On the season, he hit a combined .312/.403/.398, with 17 doubles, 5 triples, 4 home runs, 59 stolen bases in 74 attempts, and drew 60 walks to 98 strikeouts. Leading the system in batting average, on-base percentage, and stolen bases, Morabito won Organizational Player of the Year 2024 honors and was ranked 19 on Amazin’ Avenue’s 2025 Top 25 Mets Prospect List.
Morabito began the 2025 season with Double-A Binghamton and remained there for the entire season. Appearing in 118 games, he hit .273/.348/.385 with 27 doubles, 2 triples, 6 home runs, 49 stolen bases in 60 attempts, and drew 47 walks to 115 strikeouts. After the season ended, the organization sent him to the Arizona Fall League, where he appeared in 17 games for the Scottsdale Scorpions and hit .362/.450/.464 in 69 at-bats with 2 doubles, 1 triple, 1 home run, 16 stolen bases in 19 attempts, and drew 10 walks to 15 strikeouts. He was ranked 15 on Amazin’ Avenue’s 2026 Top 25 Mets Prospect List, and began the season assigned to the Triple-A Syracuse Mets. He hit the ground running in his first taste of Triple-A baseball, hitting .300 in the month of April, but slowed down as May progressed. Prior to his promotion, the outfielder was hitting .253/.364/.390 in 41 games with 6 doubles, 1 triple, 4 home runs, 14 stolen bases in 16 attempts, and drew 21 walks to 40 strikeouts.
The 5’10”, 180-pound Morabito is solid and thick, but quick-twitch speedy and athletic. Year after year, the Mets have tinkered with Morabito’s set-up at the plate. After changing it during the 2025 season to have him more square at the plate, and then closing him up during the Arizona Fall League, Morabito is now standing fairly open, with his hands at his eyes and his bat head angled almost perpendicular to the ground. The slight leg lift that he began using in the AFL remains, as opposed to the toe tap he used throughout the 2025 season in Binghamton, but even with the slight leg lift, his load and weight shift are still minimal and his mechanics at the plate have very little wasted movement.
He is quick and direct to the ball with a level, flat swing plane. Morabito is capable of hitting the ball hard- during his time with the Syracuse Mets, statcast radars tracked 18 batted ball events resulting in exit velocities over 100 MPH and 39 resulting in exit velocities over 95 MPH, roughly 33% of his registered batted ball events- but because of his swing path, he is hitting the ball on the ground more often than not. Morabito had a 23.6% line drive rate, 51.9% groundball rate, and 24.5% fly ball rate upon his promotion, which is in line with his career data; in 2025, he had a 24.1% line drive rate, 53.9% ground ball rate, and 21.9% fly ball rate, and in 2024, he had a combined 24.9% line drive rate, 55.0% ground ball rate, and 20.1% fly ball rate. Most concerningly, Morabito has been absolutely unable to elevate fastballs of any kind, averaging a 3-degree launch angle against them. Against breaking and off-speed pitches, Morabito has had a bit more success elevating them, but even still, he is averaging a 10-degree launch angle against all secondary pitches, still highly suboptimal.
On the whole, Morabito has struggled against fastballs, hitting .197/.340/.316 in the limited data of his month-plus in Syracuse this season. He had his most success against breaking balls, hitting .315/.383/.500 against them. Against fastballs, his swing typically seems be late, going back up the middle or to the opposite field, but against slower secondary pitches, he is pulling the ball more.
Allowing Morabito to succeed, such as he has, with his batting profile and spray chart, is his elite speed. The outfielder’s calling card are ground balls that are legged out for hits, keeping his minor league batting average and BABIP inflated. A true plus runner, Morabito has posted 90th percentile outcomes in various speed-quantifying metrics over the years, and leverages that speed into extra bases when the ball is put into play, leading the system in stolen bases (129) since being drafted in 2022.
A shortstop for the majority of his high school experience, Morabito began playing the outfield late and was drafted as an outfielder. Despite having experience, he has not played in the infield since turning pro save a handful of games where he manned second base in 2023. The majority of his playing time has come in center, where he has shown the ability to be an above-average fielder. Morabito is not graceful like many of the great center fielders, but he has above-average range and can cover a lot of ground. His arm is fringe-average for the outfield, but his glove work is sure. Over the years, Morabito has improved as a defender, learning on the fly. As long as he remains a plus runner, he will have the ability to play center, tracking down balls and correcting himself with “brute speed” when the technical aspects of the position allude him.
The Minnesota Twins demoted former No. 1 draft pick Royce Lewis to the minor leagues, the team announced.
The Twins also designated right-handed pitcher Justin Topa for assignment and placed catcher Ryan Jeffers on the injured list with a left hamate bone fracture. Right-handed pitcher Travis Adams was recalled from Triple-A St. Paul, and the Twins selected the contracts of infielder Orlando Arcia and catcher Alex Jackson. Lewis heads to the minors after struggling following his return from a sprained left knee. Since returning from the injured list on April 21, the third baseman has struck out 25 times in 68 plate appearances while batting just .132 with one home run and five RBIs.
Before the injury, Lewis hit .222 with two doubles, two homers, eight RBIs and an .822 OPS in 12 games.
The Twins made a similar move in demoting right fielder Matt Wallner to Triple-A St. Paul.
Apr 18, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Emmet Sheehan (80) throws during the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images | Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images
Emmet Sheehan gets the start on Tuesday for the Dodgers in the middle game of their series against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park, but what’s notable is that it’s the first start this season for Los Angeles on four days rest.
Sheehan allowed two runs in six innings with six strikeouts in his win last Thursday over San Francisco. He swapped rotation slots so Shohei Ohtani could start on Wednesday’s series finale, directly in front of an off day, reducing the number of games Ohtani might hit with next-day fatigue after a pitching start.
Pitching on four days rest was the norm for decades in baseball, but that’s waned a bit over time. Here’s a look at the Dodgers starts on four (or three) days rest over the last few five-year check-ins.
Dodgers starts on (3 or) 4 days rest
2006: 90 starts
2011: 70 starts
2016: 59 starts
2021: 61 starts
That’s a slow-ish decline, and even in some recent years when the Dodgers have looked for avenues to give extra rest whenever possible, through spot starts, bullpen games, the decline in starts on four days rest wasn’t precipitous, until 2024.
2022: 45 starts
2023: 40 starts
2024: 10 starts
2025: 9 starts
Last season, after excluding openers, relievers making spot starts, and some final-week shenanigans, the Dodgers had 150 real starts, and only nine of them were on four days rest. The rest were split essentially evenly, with 70 starts on five days rest and 71 starts with six days or longer. Through Monday, this year has 15 starts on five days rest and 32 starts on longer rest (Friday’s bullpen game in Anaheim is not included).
Roki Sasaki signed last year and is also on the same extra-rest plan, as is Ohtani, who returned to pitching last June. Ohtani as a two-way player means he doesn’t count against the roster limit of 13 pitchers, which makes it much easier to use a six-man starting rotation, because the team can still keep a full complement of eight relievers. Hence the decline in starts on four days rest. Tuesday is just the 30th such start for the Dodgers since the start of 2024, which is a quarter fewer than the 2023 season alone.
Tuesday is technically Sheehan’s third career start on four days rest, though his one-inning “start” last September 26 — the final weekend of the regular season, keeping him available for relief work as early as four days later in the wild card round — doesn’t really count. Sheehan also struck out nine in 4 2/3 innings with one run allowed on four days rest on September 21, 2023, but that was following a three-inning relief outing, not another start.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Orioles/Rays Over 7.5
Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket
Yesterday’s series opener exploded for 22 runs, and the projections are calling for more offense today with a fair price on this Over sitting around -126. Kyle Bradish is coming off his best start of the season and threw 100 pitches, after averaging closer to 90 per outing beforehand — there could be some drop-off in quality after the heavier workload.
Griffin Jax is a reliever-turned-starter whose strikeout rate has fallen sharply, from 35% down to 18.2% this season. Both offenses should be able to contribute on a relatively low total, with THE BAT projecting 8.72 runs.
Jon Metler's expert pick: Braves moneyline
Price: 56¢ (-127) at Polymarket
We have two southpaws on the mound at loanDepot park this afternoon, and Martín Pérez and the Atlanta Braves have a much easier matchup with the lineup they’ll face than Braxton Garrett does.
Three of the first five hitters in the Marlins lineup bat from the left side, and the lineup features five left-handed hitters in total. This is a dream matchup for Pérez, as he can neutralize a lot of that power by working the outer half of the plate with his sinker-changeup combination, forcing those hitters to drive the ball the other way.
Garrett, meanwhile, isn’t nearly as fortunate. He struggled with his command and lasted only 1 1/3 innings in his first start of the season, and with Ronald Acuña Jr. expected back in the lineup, the Braves can throw several hitters at him who thrive against left-handed pitching, along with Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley. I price the Braves closer to 61-cent (-156) favorites in this spot.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Red Sox moneyline
Price: 57¢ (-133) at Polymarket
The Boston Red Sox hold advantages across the board tonight in Kansas City. Ranger Suarez continues to pitch at an elite level, allowing zero earned runs in five of his last six starts, while carrying a stellar 1.96 ERA on the road.
The Royals are 2-10 against lefty starters this season, and the offense ranks 27th in OPS against southpaws over the last two weeks. Boston’s bullpen has also been dominant during that span, with an MLB-best 1.90 ERA. With a struggling Bailey Falter set to open for KC, scoring opportunities should come early and often for Boston.
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It was pure chaos at home plate after Edgar Quero’s walk-off homer against the Chicago Cubs on Sunday. | (Michael Hirschuber/Getty Images)
As quickly as spring came and went, the White Sox leapt from horrendous to… fun? I’m not talking fun in the lovable loser type of way that the North Siders affectionately refer to their tribe, and not in the way a little league parent earnestly cheers for their kid, knowing they’re about to do a swinging bunt and then run to third instead of first. I’m talking fun fun. Like, plan my weeknights around watching the game, save up money for tickets that don’t offer a giveaway, and, dare I say it, fully buy into this team making a wild card run kind of fun.
Like a cold glass of water on a hot day, this team has been refreshing. The gritty play, comical home run sushi celebrations, and extremely clutch hitting from guys who were scoffed at as lineup starters have started the season with a bang. Although it’s tempting to slot this team into the wild card race automatically, it’s time to start pumping the brakes on the hype train. Trust me, I don’t want to be writing this more than you want to read it, but let’s take the emotion out of the equation and carefully evaluate this team.
Run differential is still the Sox’s worst enemy. With a current run differential of -7, the Sox should be happy they aren’t further behind the eight ball. The bullpen deserves a lot of credit recently for keeping them close to zero, but injuries haven’t hit yet, and the arm barn is notoriously one of the shakiest aspects of this team. The relief pitching crew’s 3.81 ERA, 0.3 WAR, and only two blown saves in May have gotten the team through its fair share of troubles, but don’t expect this steadfastness to be long-term. It’s only fair to expect the run differential to get worse as relievers get hurt and the season goes on. And as run differential goes, so will the team’s playoff odds.
Psychology is also playing tricks. While a winning record looks excellent on paper, especially to excitement-starved Sox fans, a record above .500 doesn’t guarantee a postseason appearance. Since 2022, when the playoffs expanded from 10 to 12 teams, 57 teams held a winning record at the 46-game mark, yet only 45 made the postseason that year. Although a near 80% success rate is promising, there’s one big factor working against Chicago: money.
Miserly ownership will weigh a winning team down, no matter how good they are. Thirty-six of the 45 teams that exhibited sustained success had a payroll over $100 million. The nine exceptions to this case were the Guardians, known for developing the best talent on a shoestring budget; the Marlins, led by Kim Ng and exceptional management in 2023; and the Orioles, who were quite the outlier in 2024. While Zach Bove and Derek Shoman are proving to be impactful coaches, there are too many things that have to work in favor of the Sox to defy the challenges that come with competing against clubs with plenty of money to spare at the trade deadline.
Finally, the Sox being fun to watch and playoff-caliber aren’t mutually exclusive. Tuning in to a Munetaka Murakami and Colson Montgomery back-to-back home run and following Davis Martin’s dark horse Cy Young campaign won’t get old any time soon, but that doesn’t mean they’re an 81-plus win team. It simply means this team is finally taking up primetime space in fans’ minds, in a good way.
Hopefully, I’m wrong once again, like I was wrong about Montgomery being impactful last year and Murakami adjusting to the big leagues this year. But until then, let’s enjoy the ride.
NEW YORK, NY - MAY 17: Anthony Volpe #11 of the New York Yankees hits a two-run single in the sixth inning during the game between the New York Yankees and the New York Mets at Citi Field on Sunday, May 17, 2026 in New York, New York. (Photo by Michael Urakami/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
We’d probably all like to forget the Yankees’ soul-crushing loss on Sunday against the Mets. That being said, there were several moments that can be remembered in a positive light, including Anthony Volpe’s first hit of the 2026 campaign — a two-out double off Freddy Peralta in the second inning. Volpe arguably had a pair of more impactful plate appearances later in the game, driving in two with a sixth inning single and fighting back from 0-2 down to draw a bases loaded walk in the seventh, however the approach Volpe showed in his first AB will serve him well if he can maintain it, and merits analysis in this week’s installment in this series.
Peralta seemed to be extra amped for his start against the crosstown rivals, his fastball coming in about two mph above his season average during the first turn through the order. He starts Volpe with a first-pitch four-seamer at 96 mph, he and catcher Luis Torrens looking to jam Volpe up and in.
Peralta executes this pitch perfectly to his spot and all Volpe can do is fight it off foul. Last year, among the many issues for Volpe included being too passive against pitches in the zone, particularly fastballs early in counts. It’s at least some bit of progress to be offering at a pitch like this, if for no other reason than being evidence of good pitch recognition and strike zone awareness.
With the muscle memory of the previous pitch execution, Peralta looks to throw the exact same pitch here.
Instead, he gets his release point all wrong and sails this one above the zone at head height, making for an automatic take from Volpe.
Now that he has shown Volpe two straight fastballs, the second resetting Volpe’s eye level up, Peralta now sees if he can get him to chase a slider off the plate low and away.
Oh man, Volpe missed an absolute cookie here — a cement mixer slider right down the middle. This is just not a good swing from Volpe, his front side bailing out early as he guesses fastball, and he’s in nowhere near the right hitting position to do anything but foul this very hittable pitch back and out of play.
After his previous mistake went unpunished, Peralta doesn’t dare throw another mistake slider. Instead, he goes back to the fastball, now attempting to climb the ladder above the zone for the strikeout swinging.
Once again, Peralta is wild with his release, spraying this four-seamer up and in and not close enough to the zone to entice Volpe to chase.
That’s now two fastballs and a slider where Peralta cannot find the right release. Perhaps that is why he opts for a changeup here — a dangerous pitch to a same-handed hitter if you can’t bury it below the zone.
Indeed, we see exactly what happens when you can’t get a changeup low enough to a same-handed hitter — it turns into a batting practice fastball when thrown in the zone. Volpe sends it right back the way it came, driving this pitch to the wall in left-center for a double, the first hit of his season.
Volpe entered this game hitless, but with a robust .455 OBP in his first three games thanks to drawing five walks in his first 11 plate appearances of the year. Following his two hits and four times on base on Sunday, he’s got a 188 wRC+ and 43.8-percent walk rate — obviously a minuscule sample size that doesn’t provide conclusive evidence, but still offers an optimistic outlook on his process to open his campaign.
This AB alone provides a ton of encouragement when it comes to Volpe’s approach to the plate. Volpe struggled to control the strike zone last year, letting hittable pitches go by while also chasing junk off the plate. It’s why he found himself 0-2 in so many spots last year, taking an early in-zone fastball for a strike and then trying too hard to make up for it by chasing a breaking pitch out of the zone. There seems to be a concerted approach to to improve that area of his game. Including this contest, Volpe has an in-zone swing rate of 74.1-percent and a chase rate of 12.5-percent, both massive improvements of his career marks of 65.6-percent and 27.2-percent, respectively. In this AB, he swung at all three pitches in the zone and didn’t chase the two out of it. As simple as it sounds, swinging at strikes and taking balls is a big part behind the impressive walk rate he has posted so far.
Finally, I feel this encounter highlights a mid-AB adjustment from early in the count to a two-strike approach. I’ve taken screenshots of the moment right after contact on Volpe’s swings against the 1-1 slider he fouled back vs. the 2-2 changeup he barreled for the double, both offspeed pitches in the exact same location.
In the lefthand image, his swing on the mistake slider, you can see how open his front hip is and how all of his momentum is traveling toward third base. This is because he’s trying to make room for his top half to get the bat head out early as he tries to pull the ball in the air. Contrast that with the righthand image, the swing that produced the double, and you can see how he’s keeping his weight back an extra tick and letting the ball travel, and then when he does swing, his momentum is traveling forward toward the pitcher as he goes with more of an up the middle approach. It’s way early, but this improvement in his swing decisions and the employment of a two-strike approach makes me excited to watch Volpe play for the first time in a long time.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - JULY 15: Byron Buxton #25 of the Minnesota Twins jogs off the field after the fifth inning of the MLB All-Star Game at Truist Park on July 15, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) | Getty Images
ICYMI: Buster Olney spoke with the folks at 680 The Fan’s Cellini & Dimino on a variety of Braves-related topics yesterday, but none were more buzzy than the following: should the Braves trade for Byron Buxton?
It’s been discussed a lot over the years. A two-time All-Star and Georgia native who’d be a great cultural fit in this clubhouse; everything about him screams “Brave”. Our Feed largely falls into three camps:
Blue box him NOW
We keep saying it and will keep saying it – this year’s team depth is 1) great 2) has been put to the test, but can you IMAGINE what the team would be like at full strength, PLUS Buxton? It’s a beautiful thing.
Skeptical, but open-minded
There’s a few people who see both sides, but ultimately wouldn’t mind if Alex Anthopoulos made a call or had a few conversations. We have a bit of an outfield logjam at the moment, but things can certainly be shifted to bring a player with his kind of tools onto the roster.
Stay far, far away
He’d be a perfect fit in several ways… including the unfortunate and recurring injury bug. That’s the biggest issue people have, along with what Minnesota might want in return as a secondary concern. And with the aforementioned OF logjam? For some, that’s a hard pass.
Just some fun, mid-May spectulation… if you’ve got a different take, let us know in the comments below.
There’s a lot happening down on the farm for the Phillies.
Philadelphia has seen breakout candidates at the plate since the start of the Minor League season. And Gage Wood dominated his way into a two-level promotion to Reading.
But the club’s top-ranked prospect still has not played a game in his fourth professional season.
There was a great deal of anticipation for Aidan Miller’s campaign entering the year, with the possibility of a midseason callup to the big leagues if everything clicked. Instead, the soon-to-be 22-year-old has been working through a back injury, something he also dealt with a year ago.
Miller went down during Spring Training, which kept him out of Grapefruit League action and has delayed his season at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. It had earlier been believed that Miller was doing everything except swinging a bat, but Mattingly said on May 6 that the shortstop prospect was not participating in baseball activities.
There has at least been some progress.
“Aidan Miller is beginning to do light baseball activity,” Mattingly said Thursday.
Asked if that included swinging, Mattingly kept it broad.
“Light baseball activities,” he said. “So we’re moving in the right direction.”
It is clearly a slow play for the organization with the former first-round pick. There is no obvious reason to rush him, especially with Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm both swinging the bat better lately.
Last year between Double-A and Triple-A, Miller slashed .264/.392/.433 with 43 extra-base hits and 59 stolen bases in 116 games. In the final two months, he posted an OPS over 1.100 and racked up 22 extra-base hits in his final 36 games.
SCHWARBER OUT AGAIN, REALMUTO SITS
For the second straight day, Kyle Schwarber is out of the lineup with an illness.
Mattingly mentioned the possibility of Schwarber pinch-hitting Wednesday, but said Thursday there was no real chance that would have happened.
“Yesterday really was no shot,” Mattingly said. “Today, maybe. He didn’t feel great, but we may have a shot to hit.”
Schwarber was feeling a little better, just not enough to start. Temperatures around first pitch were expected to hover around 95 degrees before cooling into Memorial Day Weekend, and the Phillies had no reason to force it.
J.T. Realmuto will sit as well.
It’s just a day of rest for the Phillies’ catcher. At 35, the Phillies want to keep him fresh behind the plate throughout the season, and Mattingly’s player perspective goes into that decision.
“He’s getting a little older,” Mattingly said. “I just don’t think him catching five, six days in a row at this point in the season makes a lot of sense. We’re going to try to keep him stronger through the course of the season.”
Realmuto has pushed to play through a lot over the years, and Mattingly knows that part of him.
“I know he wants to play, and he wants to be in there every day, and we appreciate that,” Mattingly said. “But sometimes you have to save guys from themselves and try to give them days here and there, especially when they make sense.”
Those days also keep Rafael Marchán and Garrett Stubbs involved. That depth showed up Wednesday, when the Phillies’ next-man-up mentality helped power an eighth-inning comeback victory behind Bryson Stott’s go-ahead homer.
PHILS GO FOR ANOTHER
When the Phillies beat the Pirates at PNC Park, it was their sixth consecutive series win.
That came after they had lost six straight series under Rob Thomson.
The Phils will hand the ball to Jesús Luzardo Thursday night against Cincinnati as they look for their seventh straight series victory.
The left-hander was lights out in his last outing in Boston, firing six scoreless innings against the Red Sox as he went toe-to-toe with former Phillie Ranger Suárez.
He issued just one walk in that start, which is usually the biggest indicator of how his outings will play out. Luzardo has walked three or more batters in three starts this year. In two of them, he allowed five earned runs. In the other, he did not complete the fifth inning.
Mattingly has seen the same trend. When Luzardo’s innings start to get away, it is often less about stuff and more about tempo.
“For me, he always looks the same,” Mattingly said. “I just think sometimes he speeds up. Instead of slowing down a little bit and making pitches, it gets to be, ‘I’m competing,’ and he’s competing harder. To me, [that’s] not as good.”
Even through his struggles, Luzardo’s underlying metrics remain strong. The strikeout stuff is there, and he gives the Phillies immense upside in a rotation that already features Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler and Andrew Painter, who has improved a great deal recently.
The Phillies will oppose Reds righty Chase Burns, who has posted an eye-opening 1.87 ERA in nine starts and is firmly in the National League Cy Young conversation. Burns routinely runs his fastball into the triple digits and will be a tough opponent for the Phillies.
Mattingly still likes the way his club should think each night.
“Our guys should expect to win,” he said. “We’ve got good players. We’ve got good starting pitching on an everyday basis. Those guys, for the most part, keep us in a game and give us a chance.”
The Phillies have been playing like it lately.
Now they get another chance to keep the run going.
He is flummoxing opposing lineups with chase and strikeout rates that rank in the 85th percentile, and he's finished at least five innings in all nine outings, consistently putting the Guardians in a position to win.
While Cleveland's bullpen has an inflated ERA, the relief corps also owns the best K% in the majors and ranks second in K-BB%. This is a dominant bullpen that will help shut things down once Messick leaves.
Guardians vs Tigers Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (+105)
I fully expect Messick to get the job done against the Tigers, as he's allowed fewer than three runs in seven of his nine outings, and Comerica Park isn't a hitter-friendly locale.
That should also benefit Tigers starter Keider Montero, who owns a 3.14 ERA at home, suppressing power more effectively in Detroit than on the road (.295 SLG at home, .508 away).
Montero is a pitch-to-contact hurler, which may bite him a bit against this Guardians offense that boasts baseball's third-lowest strikeout rate, but the lack of consistent power means Cleveland won't run up the score.
Guardians vs Tigers odds
Moneyline: Guardians -167 | Tigers +138
Run line: Guardians -1.5 (+102) | Tigers +1.5 (-123)
Over/Under: Over 8 (-107) | Under 8 (-112)
Guardians vs Tigers trend
The Guardians have hit the moneyline in 28 of their last 50 road games for +12.45 units and a 23% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Tigers.
How to watch Guardians vs Tigers and game info
Location
Comerica Park, Detroit, MI
Date
Tuesday, May 19, 2026
First pitch
6:40 p.m. ET
TV
Guardians.TV, DSN
Guardians starting pitcher
Parker Messick (5-1, 2.35 ERA)
Tigers starting pitcher
Keider Montero (2-3, 3.65 ERA)
Guardians vs Tigers latest injuries
Guardians vs Tigers weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
SCOTTSDALE, AZ - MARCH 2: Benny Montgomery #62 of the Colorado Rockies slides during the game against the Seattle Mariners at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick on March 2, 2025 in Scottsdale, AZ. (Photo by Rob Leiter/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | Original photo by Rob Leiter/MLB Photos via Getty Images, 3/2/2025
Hartford Yard Goats outfielder Benny Montgomery may be just 23-years-old, but he’s already entering his sixth season in the Rockies system.
Selected eighth overall in the 2021 draft out of Red Land High School in Pennsylvania, the 6’5” Montgomery hit the ground running. He made a strong first impression by hitting .340/.404/.383 in 14 games with the Arizona Complex League after being drafted and continued to rise as a prospect as he thrived in the lower levels of the farm system.
In 2022 with the Low-A Fresno Grizzlies, he hit .313.394/.502 with 20 doubles, three triples, six home runs, and 42 RBIs over 56 games. Though he did miss time on the injured list with a groin injury, he ended the season as the September 2022 California League Player of the month.
Montgomery continued his progress with a solid campaign with the High-A Spokane Indians the following year. He appeared in 109 games, hitting .251/.336/.370 with 18 doubles, 2 triples, and ten home runs in a less hitter-friendly environment. He was named an organizational minor league All-Star and earned an invitation to the 2023 Arizona Fall League. As a member of the Salt River Rafters, Montgomery dazzled by hitting .333/.436/.500 with another three home runs and was named to the “Fall Stars” Arizona Fall League All-Star team.
Assigned to the Double-A Hartford Yard Goats to start the 2024 season, it looked like Montgomery would continue his ascent as one of the Rockies’ top prospects. Through 11 games he hit .283/.313/.500 with four doubles and two home runs and was even named an Eastern League Player of the Week.
Then an event happened that would derail his young professional career. While diving for a ball in the outfield, Montgomery dislocated his left shoulder. The injury ended up doing structural damage that required surgery and would cause him to miss the rest of the season.
Montgomery returned to the Yard Goats for the 2025 season and appeared in 86 games—the second-most in his professional career—but looked like a shell of his former self. The former top prospect hit just .201/.274/.263 with eight doubles and four home runs.
Now with the 2026 minor league season underway and a pending minor league free agent at the end of the year, Montgomery is again with the Hartford Yard Goats as he tries to regain form.
“I’d be lying if I said it wasn’t an uphill battle from 2024 after the injury,” Montgomery said. “That and a lot of quirky injuries happened last year. So really it’s getting the confidence back trusting my stuff to where it was. It’s been been really good, and I don’t think I’m there yet, but I think I’m really close, and I’m really happy with how it’s going.”
Montgomery made no secret of his frustrations coming back from that uphill battle and his struggles in 2025.
“It was a grind. I don’t have many positive emotions about it,” he said.
However, he has also come away from the experience with new insight and lessons learned.
“I think the silver lining is sometimes you don’t need to go through things, but when you do, you can’t control some of the things that happen and then the only thing you do is make the most out of the situation,” Montgomery explained. “And I feel like I’ve learned a lot, gotten a lot better mentally, dealing with things, dealing with failure, and now I’m out there to have fun, enjoy playing, and that’s all you can do.”
Montgomery further ruminated on his experiences and how they have changed him.
“I’m completely different, I think, than I was,” he said. “I have much more perspective. I hadn’t really ever experienced failure before 2024 or injury, or anything like that. Now I have more perspective of what it’s like to be able to play every day, to really enjoy what you’re doing. I think that’s really important. And happy to be out here.”
Not only is Montgomery grateful to be back and playing ball, but he’s grateful to be doing to with his teammates in Hartford.
“We’re all really close. We’ve got a lot of close friends here,” he said. “We like to hang off the field. We like to do stuff with each other. It’s a really close knit group of guys, and it’s a lot of really good baseball players. When you’re having a bunch of good baseball players that enjoy playing together, it makes for a pretty good team.”
As the season rolls on, Montgomery—once focused on goals like most baseball players—is choosing to take things day-by-day and game-by-game.
“I used to be a goals guy. Not anymore,” Montgomery said. “I want to go play baseball. I want to feel good, play baseball, enjoy time with my buddies, and just feel blessed to be out there doing it every day. No goals. Whatever happens, happens. I’m just here to play.”
The Albuquerque Isotopes had a bit of a rough week, particularly on the pitching side of things, as they lost a six-game series for the first time since first full week of the season. Things started off on a high note with a pair of victories, including an extra-inning walk-off win, but the Isotopes then dropped four straight to the Oklahoma City Comets (Los Angeles Dodgers), tying their season-high losing streak. Over those final four contests, Albuquerque’s pitching staff surrendered 59 runs and 69 hits, capped by the 20 runs given up on Sunday.
⬆️ Stock Up:The Sean Sullivan Show
While the pitching staff ended up having a tough week, Sean Sullivan (No. 8 PuRP) delivered the best start. Taking the pill for the second game of the series, Sullivan cruised through six innings, allowing just two runs, one earned, on five hits with three strikeouts and a walk. He attacked the zone, throwing 65-of-97 pitches for strikes and induced seven ground balls. Sullivan improved to 4-2 on the season and owns a 5.08 ERA.
⬇️ Stock Down: Learning and Growing
Slumps are a pain in the posterior for any aspiring big leaguer and Charlie Condon (No. 1 PuRP) is still working through one in Albuquerque. He had a rough series against Oklahoma City, going 4-for-22 with 10 strikeouts and four walks. Condon’s power has disappeared over the last few weeks, but he did manage a triple during the week for just his second extra-base hit at home in Albuquerque. He is now slashing .232/.369/.735 on the season.
Upcoming:
The Isotopes head back out on the road to begin a six-game series against the Las Vegas Aviators (Athletics) on Tuesday.
The Yard Goats salvaged a series split against the Portland Sea Dogs (Boston Red Sox). After winning the series opener, Hartford lost three relatively close contests in a row before bouncing back to win the final two games. The Yard Goats are now 7-3 in their last ten games and sit just 3.5 games back of New Hampshire for their division.
⬆️ Stock Up:Dandy Andy
Shortstop Andy Perez stood out at the plate against the Sea Dogs. Despite having one hitless game in the six he played, Perez still went 12-for-25 with two doubles and two stolen bases while only striking out three times. Perez leads the Yard Goats in both batting average and on-base percentage, and has the second-most stolen bases so far this season.
Denver wasn’t the only place where the weather’s taken a turn for the worse over the last week. Left-handed reliever Sam Weatherly continues to struggle at the Double-A level. In his one outing against the Sea Dogs—acting as an opener—he gave up three earned runs on two hits—including a home run—and two walks over two innings of work. His ERA for the season sits at 10.91 with a 2.298 WHIP and opposing batters hitting .391 against him.
Upcoming:
The Yard Goats are heading to New Hampshire to play the division-leading Fisher Cats (Toronto Blue Jays) in a series that could help Hartford make a leap up in the standings.
High-A: Spokane Indians (2-4, 15-24 Overall)
The Indians sit at the bottom of the Northwest League after losing their series against the Hillsboro Hops (Arizona Diamondbacks). When the Indians could get their offense going they were able to come away with a win, but in three of their four losses they were able to score just two runs.
⬆️ Stock Up:Hammer Time
Left-handed 2023 12th round pick Bryson Hammer has been operating largely in a long relief role this season, but it appears the organization has decided to take the training wheels off by having him start his last two contests. In just his second career start, Hammer was outstanding. He pitched a career-high six innings of shutout baseball, allowing just one hit and striking out eight batters. He was named Northwest League Pitcher of the Week.
⬇️ Stock Down:Singing the Belyeus
Outfielder Max Belyeu (no. 15 PuRP) is having himself a difficult first full season of professional baseball, hitting just .191/.290/.383 in 31 games—though 11 of his 22 hits have been for extra bases. Belyeu appeared in just three games against the Hops. In his first game he managed his second multi-hit game of the season, but it was also the first since April 5th and he only had just one more hit the rest of the series.
Upcoming:
The Indians will host the Vancouver Canadians (Toronto Blue Jays) this week. Make sure to say “happy birthday” to DORIS the mascot on Wednesday.
Low-A: Fresno Grizzlies (4-2, 23-16 Overall)
The Grizzlies continued their strong season with a series win over the Visalia Rawhide (Arizona Diamondbacks). They now sit tied for the best record in the California League thanks to a strong offense and solid pitching.
⬆️ Stock Up:Jack Attack
Catcher and designated hitter Jack O’Dowd was named the California League Player of the Week. He had multiple hits in three of five games, going 9-for-20 at the plate with three doubles, a triple, two home runs—including a grand slam—and seven RBIs. O’Dowd, who just turned 25, was signed out of the Pioneer League this off-season and has been enjoying a breakout campaign in Fresno. He is currently hitting .342/.385/.709 with seven home runs.
— Fresno Grizzlies (@FresnoGrizzlies) May 17, 2026
⬆️ Stock Up:Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but Roldy Brito is good.
Roldy Brito (no. 11 PuRP) continues to dominate in Fresno. In another impressive week he went 13-for-28 with two doubles, a triple, a home run, six RBIs, and two stolen bases. The breakout prospect also played both second base and center field.
Upcoming:
A road series against the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (Los Angeles Angels) is up next for the Grizzlies.
The ACL Rockies kicked off the week with two wins against the ACL Angels and ACL Reds, but lost their remaining three games. They are tied for the second-best record in the ACL and are currently on top of their division.
⬆️ Stock Up:Can’t Arguelles with those results
18-year-old Venezuelan outfielder Cristian Arguelles (HM PuRP) had a solid week at the plate, going 7-for-17 with two triples and a home run with three RBIs.
Perdomo leads the D-backs in walks, with Carroll a close second (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The ABS Challenge System had indirect impacts beyond the challenges.
As you know, this season the ABS challenge system arrived in the Majors. What you may or may not know is that the initial ball-strike calls had a higher accuracy this season.
Let’s focus more specifically, on the overall accuracy of umpires calling pitches just outside the strike zone.
This season, when a batter does not swing at pitches just barely outside the strike zone, it is almost three times as likely for the umpire to call it a ball.
“…Balls just off those three edges [excluded top of zone] were called strikes 37% of the time in 2025; they’re being called strikes 13.5% of the time in 2026….” Ben Clemmens, 12 May 2026
This season through 8 May, walks as a percentage of PAs increased 1.11% (from last season’s 8.41% to 9.62%). This season’s rate is the highest shown in Baseball Savant (which included the 2008 season onward).
Recently, walk rates for Diamondbacks batters changed.
In the four previous seasons, the Diamondback batters had higher walk rates than the league averages.
This season in games through 8 May, something different happened. The Diamondbacks batters had a lower walk rate than the league average (7.53% vs 9.52). Perhaps batters were being too aggressive and not taking walks.
Then, in the recent five games (9-13 May), the Diamondbacks batters dramatically turned it around. In contrast to the league average (that dropped from 9.52% to 9.08%) the Diamondbacks increased their walk rate from 7.63% to 11.89%. Very impressive!
The following table compares the walk rates of the Diamondbacks batters and the league average. Data from Baseball Savant.
Did the increased walk rate directly result in more runs? Yes. The extra four walks resulted in two extra runs. Extrapolating those five games to an entire season would be an extra 64.6 runs! The following table shows the impact. Data from Baseball Reference.
One situation that can greatly impact the game is the 3-2 count. Whether the pitch is in the strike zone is the primary driver on the batters’ swing decision. A secondary driver is whether pitches just barely outside the strike zone will be called balls (which you may remember is three times more likely than last season).
The following table shows Diamondbacks batters in 3-2 counts. Excluding foul balls, 16.7% of their swings were successful (they got a hit). More remarkable was that when they did not swing their success rate (they got a walk) was much higher (88.9% to 100%).
The walk rates for Diamondbacks pitchers changed.
In the last four seasons, the Diamondbacks pitchers made a steady improvement in their walk rates compared to league averages.
This season through 8 May, their walk rate increased by about 10% over last season, which was barely better than the league average.
In the last five games, their walk rate dropped dramatically (from 8.87% to 6.43%). I’m not sure such a large improvement is sustainable.
The following table compares the walk rates of the Diamondbacks pitchers and the league average. Data from Baseball Savant.
The Diamondbacks Rockies Series at Coors Field.
What about walks at Coors Field? Will the ease of hitting at Coors field (and pitchers’ attempts to avoid the strike zone) make the changes in walk rate more pronounced, or less pronounced?
In the first two games of the Coors series, Diamondbacks batters walked 12.0% of their PAs. Which was the same rate as 9-13 May.
In the first two games of the Coors series, Diamondbacks pitchers walked only one batter, which was an astonishing 1.5% of batters faced (PAs).
Summary.
This season, when a batter does not swing at pitches just barely outside the strike zone, it is almost three times as likely for the umpire to call it a ball.
In the recent five games (9-13 May), the Diamondbacks batters dramatically turned their walk rate around. In contrast to the league average (that dropped from 9.52% to 9.08%) the Diamondbacks increased their walk rate from 7.63% to 11.89%.
The increased walk rate directly resulted in more runs. Extrapolating those five games to an entire season would be an extra 64.6 runs!
One situation that can greatly impact the game is the 3-2 count. When Diamondbacks batters did not swing their success rate (they got a walk) was very high (88.9% to 100%).
In the last five games, Diamondbacks pitchers dramatically reduced their walk rate (from 8.87% to 6.43%).
First place is at stake in the NL West as the Dodgers meet the Padres in San Diego. Game 1 of the series saw the lead switch hands, as the Padres are now in front by a half game.
The 1-0 loss by L.A. is the only blemish on either team’s record over the last five days.
A favorable starting pitching matchup has my Dodgers vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks looking for the Dodgers to take back the top spot with a road win on Tuesday, May 19.
Who will win Dodgers vs Padres today: Dodgers moneyline (-155)
The San Diego Padres have won four straight and five of their last six, while the Los Angeles Dodgers saw a five-game win streak snapped thanks to their NL West rival. L.A. also saw a temporary halt to its offensive rebirth.
Prior to the shutout loss, the Dodgers had scored 36 runs in four games. Shohei Ohtani appears to be shaking off an early season slump. He went 2-for-3 Monday and is 8 for his last 16. They’ll try to keep it going against Griffin Canning and his 10.64 ERA.
Dodgers pitching has allowed just six runs in the last six games and they'll go with Emmet Sheehan on the mound tonight who has won his last two starts.
COVERS INTEL:Canning has allowed more than 12 hits per nine, but some of that is hard luck. He’s allowing .452 BABIP, and his FIP (predictor of true ERA) is just 4.19. He’s walking 7.4 per nine, however, which is problematic.
Dodgers vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-115)
There will likely be more scoring than in the 1-0 series opener, but the Dodgers have been dominant on the mound recently.
Over the last week, opponents are hitting .194 with .567 OPS against L.A. and are collectively producing at 37% below league average at the plate. The pen is well-rested with just two relievers throwing a total of 19 pitches over the last two days.
The Padres have been almost as good, allowing .208 average and .575 OPS over the last two weeks, producing opposing offense 33% below league average. The San Diego bullpen is a little more fatigued than the Dodgers’, which could be an issue if Canning struggles early.
Shawn Krest's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 13-19 -5.33 units
Over/Under bets: 18-18 -1.51 units
Dodgers vs Padres odds
Moneyline: Los Angeles -155 | San Diego +140
Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+100) | San Diego +1.5 (-122)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+104) | Under 8.5 (-127)
Dodgers vs Padres trend
The Los Angeles Dodgers have only hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 45 games (-9.85 Units / -20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres.
How to watch Dodgers vs Padres and game info
Location
Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Date
Tuesday, May 19, 2026
First pitch
9:40 p.m. ET
TV
SNLA, Padres.TV
Dodgers starting pitcher
Emmet Sheehan (3-1, 4.54 ERA)
Padres starting pitcher
Griffin Canning (0-2, 10.64 ERA)
Dodgers vs Padres latest injuries
Dodgers vs Padres weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
May 18, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners first baseman Josh Naylor (12) and shortstop J.P. Crawford (3) poor water on Seattle Mariners third baseman Colt Emerson (4) after defeating the Chicago White Sox at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images
The Mariners haven’t been very much fun to watch this year.
Sure, the run differential is positive. The fun differential, though? Stinky. Trash. Probably sitting about where the 19-30 Houston Astros run differential is, near the bottom of the league (the sentence is clunky, but please allow me this opportunity to bully the Astros).
Most of us have probably turned off games early in disgust this year. It’s likely many of us have forgotten that the game started already, checked the score, and decided not to turn it on after all. Injuries to crucial players, underperformance and, the worst and rarest of all, expectations, have made this sub-.500 season feel awfully joyless.
Well, how many unique moments of joy can you fit into about one minute?
Colt Emerson earned his first hit. He put together some real Professional At-Bats in the last couple days. He fell behind in counts, but he fought his way back in just the way you want to: spitting on balls, fouling off some pitches he didn’t like, and swinging hard at ones that he did.
You have to do just enough, and he did that.
So, take your pick of joyful moments. You’d be well within your right to choose his family, who flew to Seattle just in time to watch Colt send one out – you can read his dad’s lips pretty well here.
You might take his easy, cool, calm confidence as he points out to the bullpen (a decidedly veteran move), betrayed only by the emphatic “let’s fucking go!” as he crossed home plate.
For me, I’ll take the trio of veterans that were waiting for Colt on the front steps of the dugout.
J.P. Crawford, the captain, heart, soul, leader and Shortstop of this era of Mariners baseball, positively bouncing at the opportunity to hand off the trident to, hopefully, the next Mariners shortstop. Colt has a little bit of J.P. in him. The obvious leadership qualities aside, J.P. ranks near the top of the league in pitches per PA, and Colt’s approach at just 20 already feels like the savvy veteran’s.
“The Mariners preach, don’t be an easy out. All the guys on the team, they’re not easy outs. So me being in the eight hole, nine hole, seeing that ahead of me, you do what you see.”
Julio, who had the most Julio grin of Julio grins splitting his face as he greeted Colt at home, lived from ages 15-21 under a microscope before his debut, desperate to prove everyone else wrong about him. Now he’s 25, has proved everyone else wrong, wrong, wrong, and wrong. Will the bat develop? Is he too lumbering to even play in the corners? Will he be a liability on the basepaths? Is there enough pop to support his bat? Wrong, wrong, wrong, and wrong.
Colt has a little bit of Julio in him. Kate talked to him this spring training after being impressed by some of the power he displayed in batting practice. He smiled and said, “Scouting reports love to lie about me.”
Randy Arozarena was the first out of the dugout, the same energetic, smiling ball of human sunshine who lit the world on fire as a rookie in 2020 when he first transformed into Playoff Randy, stealing bags, hitting dingers and roaming the outfield with impunity.
Colt has a little bit of Randy in him, too. They both fit a surprising amount of power into compact frames. Colt’s play in the field in just two games has been smooth, confident and effortless, just like Randy’s. While Colt may not have the bombastic personality as Randy, he plans to take the league by storm in the same way.
What struck me most about this moment was how selfless the joy on their faces was. This wasn’t a go-ahead home run to win the game. It was insurance. Nice to have, but not ultimately necessary. They were happy for him, as a person, and most meaningfully to Emerson, a teammate.
“Getting drafted, you look at who’s in the big leagues, you idolize those guys, and you want to be a part of that. And finally, I’m a part of it. Seeing their faces, seeing Julio, Randy, J.P. out on the front step, waiting for me. Gosh, it means a lot. It really does,” Emerson said.
In it all, not lost on many of us, was the man who watched Emerson’s drive sail right over his head and into the stands. The last Mariner whose first hit was a home run, almost five years ago to the day. The last no-doubt, sure-thing lefty hitting prospect for the Mariners. The last cold weather, hyper-competitive kid with a chip on his shoulder who was meant to be The One.
Yes, Colt Emerson has a little bit of Jarred Kelenic in him.
They both are powered by an inner core of desire to win that radiates from them like a heat haze mirage. They both have chips on their shoulders, just like Julio, and so many great players. They both have dominated every level they’ve played at, and they both hit home runs in their second professional game, at home in T-Mobile Park.
But there are some obvious differences, too, even in their similarities.
Kelenic’s essential competitiveness, at least when he was with the Mariners, was best summarized as: “I want to win.” By contrast, Colt’s feels more “I want us to win.” A difference like this is obvious to those around them, especially in a team setting that relies so much on time spent together. It’s why Colt has been embraced with such open arms by those around him – his fellow players, coaches and support staff can’t stop raving about him.
Emerson had unadulterated joy from team leaders he admired waiting for him when he got back to the dugout and Naylor and Canzone waiting for him at the plate. But Kelenic? No one greeted him at home plate. No exuberant eye contact and big smiles awaited him. He lifted his hand to the sky and jogged back to the dugout, where he got a quick high-five from Mitch Haniger, a down-low from Sam Haggerty and a muted fist-bump from a tired Kyle Seager. No love, no joy.
Kelenic stewed, seethed, and raged when things didn’t go away, until he finally got a big hit and he could release, for just a moment, some of that anger and anxiety. But it would always come back, an ember of ire that was too strong to be doused. It defined him and his tenure in Seattle. You can hear it in his post-game interview from May 14, 2021, his first big-league hit.
“I want to bury our opponents, each and every night,” Kelenic said at the time. “And what really bugs me is when I give away at-bats, or if I don’t execute on what I’m trying to do, just because, like what I just said, I want to win.”
Emerson’s postgame conversation about his competitive drive and approach is different – lessons that Kelenic likely wishes he had learned earlier already engrained.
“Being a competitor means putting the ball in play when you need to put the ball in play, and if you’re up there super tight and trying to do too much, you’re not going to put the ball in play. So the only logical thing is to take a deep breath, and loosen up and go do it.”
This young, these mentalities are not ones that are fully developed and self-taught through experience. They’re what you are taught as you’ve grown up. You absorb how you view and interact with the world around you from those who you love and trust. Emerson had a true village, and 17 people flying in from Ohio to watch him is a testament to how loved he’s been.
“You can’t talk about Colt without talking about all the guys and all the people that have poured into him, all the people that taught him to play,” Dan Wilson said. “He’s a special kid. There’s something special inside of him as a player, but there’s also people who have really prepared him for this moment and those people deserve a lot of credit, because what we’ve seen from him so far has been really, really special.”
Kelenic had his parents, brother and girlfriend there to see his home run. I wonder what lessons he was taught growing up about competitiveness, performance and how it relates to your sense of self-worth.
It’s natural for humans to linger on what things could have, would have, should have been different. How things might have turned out with a laundry list of “if only’s”. Prospects, especially ones that are asked to bear the hope of a cursed franchise, find themselves doubly burdened by this weight, externally and internally. For the player, for a fandom, for everyone in so many aspects of our lives, letting things go and living in the present isn’t easy.
Kelenic, at least, seems to have finally found some inner peace – Ryan Divish published a great piece about his mental journey, and wrote about how much lighter he seems upon his return to Seattle.
This home run feels like a true clean break: the end of that chapter, and the start of a new one.
It’s time to let go of the disappointing, “what-if?” past, and live in the now.
COVERS INTEL: Messick 
