LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 7: General view of Dodger Stadium during the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Cincinnati Reds on September 7, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Good morning, baseball fans!
The 2026 MLB Playoffs continue this weekend, as the National League and American League Division Series begin tomorrow.
As of the time this is being written, the final game of the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves series has not yet been played. I will try to update that information if I get a chance to but as of right now I don’t yet know who will be playing against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Also, as with the rest of the games so far, national radio coverage will be available on ESPN Radio.
Saturday
10:00 a.m. PT – Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians – TBS/HBO Max
1:00 p.m. PT – Atlanta/Philadelphia vs. Dodgers – Fox/Fox One
3:30 p.m. PT – New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays – TBS/HBO Max
5:30 p.m. PT – San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers – Fox Sports 1/Fox One
Sunday
1:00 p.m. PT – Padres vs. Brewers – Fox Sports 1/Fox One
5:00 p.m. PT – Atlanta/Philadelphia vs. Dodgers – Fox Sports 1/Fox One
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - OCTOBER 01: Aaron Nola #27 of the Philadelphia Phillies walks to the dugout against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning in game three of the National League Wild Card Series at Truist Park on October 01, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Edward M. Pio Roda/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Meet the Mets
Tim Britton spoke to other executives around the league as he broke down what’s gone wrong for David Stearns in his time with the Mets and what he might be able to do to turn things around.
Gray wasn’t the only player on Boston’s roster to express frustration after that game, as the team’s in-game decisions and use of data were questioned by Willson Contreras.
AKRON, OHIO - JULY 12, 2026: Brandon Butterworth #4 of the Chesapeake Baysox bats during the fifth inning against the Akron RubberDucks at 7 17 Credit Union Park on July 12, 2026 in Akron, Ohio. (Photo by George Kubas/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
During the Orioles’ frenzied trade deadline selloff in 2025, one of the last deals to come in under the wire was the biggest of them all: a seven-player swap that sent Ryan O’Hearn and Ramón Laureano to the Padres for five prospects.
It was a trade that, even in a lost season for the Birds, brought grumbling from a large swath of the fan base. O’Hearn and Laureano were two of the Orioles’ most productive bats, and while O’Hearn was a pending free agent, Laureano was under team control for another season, irking O’s fans who wondered why the club would give up on a potentially valuable piece for 2026. (It didn’t quite turn out that way, as Laureano struggled to a .660 OPS for San Diego this year before suffering a season-ending labrum injury in May.)
Still, Mike Elias found the package of prospects the Padres offered as a deal too good to pass up. The headliner was the towering lefty Boston Bateman, now one of the Birds’ best pitching prospects, whom we’ll discuss in a separate article. Two others, infielder Cobb Hightower and righty Tyson Neighbors, won’t appear on many prospect lists. Hightower played just 18 games this season before undergoing ACL surgery, while Neighbors bombed to an 8.82 ERA in 33 minor league games this year.
Then there’s the other two prospects from the trade. Victor Figueroa and Brandon Butterworth aren’t household names, and they don’t possess the kind of high-ceiling potential that Bateman does. But both of them delivered performances in 2026 that put them on the radar as possible future big leaguers.
Let’s start with Butterworth, who has shown himself to be more than just the guy whose name reminds me of pancakes. The Padres’ 12th-round pick in 2024 out of NC State, Butterworth was having a solid season offensively in High-A when the O’s acquired him last July, posting a .782 OPS and ranking third in the league with 155 total bases. Still, it wasn’t his bat that made him intriguing.
FanGraphs, which ranked Butterworth as the Orioles’ #27 prospect in May, praised him as a “plus glove” with “great hands and a strong arm.” The article’s co-authors, Eric Longenhagen and Brendan Gawlowski, wrote, “He has plenty of range for the position, but what really stands out is the speed with which he gobbles a grounder, transfers, and fires accurately from any angle.”
Butterworth is a versatile defender, too. In the minors this season, he started at least eight games apiece at five different positions: second base, shortstop, third base, left field, and center field, with shortstop (33 games) being his most frequent one. “Whatever gets me in the lineup, I’ll catch if you guys need me to, it doesn’t matter,” Butterworth told PressBoxOnline. His defensive prowess was enough for Longenhagen and Gawlowski to project him as a future utility infielder, but they cautioned, “Butterworth isn’t going to hit much.”
Maybe he’s not. But you wouldn’t know it from his 2026 performance at the plate. Starting the season at Double-A Chesapeake, where he’d posted just a .677 OPS in 34 games last year, Butterworth erupted. In 52 games, he posted a .269/.377/.497 line — all career highs — and bashed 10 home runs and 22 extra-base hits.
Butterworth’s season was interrupted by a knee injury in early May that sidelined him for two months. Once he returned to the Baysox, he was more locked in than ever. During his first 27 games back from the IL, Butterworth his .294 with a .953 OPS. That hot streak earned him a promotion to Triple-A Norfolk, where, at 24, he was more than three years younger than the average player. He struggled to acclimate there, batting .208/.296/.396 in 28 games.
Because of Butterworth’s extended IL stint this season, the Orioles are sending him to the Arizona Fall League to get some more reps. There doesn’t seem to be much question that his glove is major league ready, but the 5-foot-9 utility man will need to prove he can hit enough to be worthy of a bench spot in the bigs. He’s held his own, and occasionally thrived, at every rung of the minor league ladder so far. Triple-A will the next task for him to conquer, with an eye on a potential late-2027 big league debut.
Butterworth’s fellow trade acquisition, Figueroa, is a very different type of player. His defense isn’t his ticket to the majors. Nor is he going to slap-hit the ball with a contact-oriented approach. The 6-foot-5 first baseman does one thing above all else: mash lots of dingers.
Figueroa’s 27 home runs this season were the most of any Orioles minor leaguer. He blasted 22 of them for High-A Frederick before a late-July promotion to Chesapeake, where he hit five more. It was a dramatic improvement over his 2025 performance, when he went homerless in 98 PAs after joining the O’s organization.
The 22-year-old, an 18th-round Padres pick in 2024 from Florida SouthWestern State College, clocked in at #33 in FanGraphs’ rankings in May. “Figueroa has real thunder in his hands and enough juice to hit for power the opposite way, which he must because his swing’s length causes him to spray most of his well-struck contact that way,” write Longenhagen and Gawlowski. “He’s a stiff-legged guy and below-average athlete, a one-tool player with enough power to carry some value despite his issues.”
Chief among those issues: the strikeouts. Figueroa fanned in more than 30% of his plate appearances this year, racking up 155 Ks in all. Anyone striking out that much in the minors is going to have a very difficult path to the majors, so Figueroa will need to cut down the swing-and-miss to have a future as anything more than an organizational player.
The lefty-swinging Figueroa also had rather drastic splits. He crushed right-handers to the tune of a .935 OPS, hitting 24 homers against them. Versus southpaws, Figueroa’s OPS was nearly 300 points lower (.638), and he totaled only three roundtrippers in 109 PAs.
Let’s be clear here. Neither Figueroa nor Butterworth represents a star in the making for the Orioles. The odds are against either of them having an extended major league career, if they make it to the bigs at all. But if you squint, you can make out a scenario where one or both of them contributes in some way, Butterworth as a useful utility guy and Figueroa as a bench bat with some pop.
It may not be sexy, but every team needs a few players who can serve as complementary pieces to the team’s biggest stars. Now the Orioles need to work on actually getting big stars, but that’s a story for another time.
DENVER, CO - SEPTEMBER 16: Colorado Rockies fans hold a sign referring to "Rocktober", or a Rockies playoff run, during a game between the Colorado Rockies and the San Diego Padres at Coors Field on September 16, 2017 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Good morning, Rockies fans!
Back in 2007, the Rockies did the unthinkable. They punched their postseason ticket after a remarkable winning streak at the end of the season. They rode that winning streak all the way to the World Series. Then it all came crashing down.
After a losing season and surrounded by other teams celebrating advancing to the Division Series, it’s helpful to think about the good times occasionally. And no one tells the story better than the manager who helped make it happen:
19 years ago today, we played Game 163.
Two weeks before that, the Rockies were buried in the standings.
We won 13 of our last 14 regular season games to force it. Won it on a play at the plate in extra innings that people still argue about.
After that lovely trip down memory lane, it’s time to return to the present. Here’s the Rockies news and information from around MLB. At least some of it is happy.
When Hunter Goodman hit two homers to help the Rockies beat the White Sox on Sept. 25, it directly led to the Cleveland Guardians winning the American League Central. The Cleveland fans found a gracious and creative way to say thank you to the Rockies All-Star catcher. Over 700 fans combined to donate $22,000 to Clothes to Kids of Denver.
It’s hard to square four straight 100-loss seasons with an increased price for tickets. Citing lower ticket prices than other mid-market teams and increased costs, Walker Monfort told Troy Renck that the Rockies had to “narrow the gap” to justify the 12% jump. It’s a hard case to make with the terrible ending to the 2026 season. Walker might soon find himself in the company of his father when it comes to drawing the ire of Rockies fans.
It’s rare to find Rockies in best-of-MLB lists, but 20-year-old RHP Sandy Ozuna did. The prospect, who the Rockies signed out of the Dominican Republic in June of 2023, is No. 1 in most added fastball velocity.
Prospects that added the most fastball velocity in 2026 🔥
Following the requirement that a player had to throw at least 50 fastballs in 2025 and 100 in 2026, and comparing average velocities, Ozuna bumped up his fastball 9.5 mph. More Rockies made the list as well, including Yanzel Correa (+4.2 mph), Onofer De La Cruz (+3.5 mph), Gleiderson Mendoza (+3.4 mph), Efrain Cubilla (+2.9 mph), Sean Sullivan (+2.8 mph), Victor Castellano +2.4 mph), Nick Frasso (+2.1 mph), Odarlin Cruz (+2 mph) and Eric Veras (+2 mph).
Arizona signed Torey Lovullo to a two-year contract on Thursday. Lovullo is the Diamondbacks all-time winningest manager with a 750-768 record. He’ll be back in 2027 after Arizona just missed the playoffs in 2026.
October doesn’t seem to be bringing fall. With records in the 80s in Denver expected for the next week, it will be even hotter in Los Angeles. The Dodgers and Braves will play at 1 p.m. Pacific Time when it is expected to be 98 degrees. Even worse, the “RealFeel” heat index is forecast to be 105 degrees for Saturday.
The Rockies, the rest of the NL West and most MLB fans, I would expect, are really hoping the answer is yes. Katie Woo got really good quotes from Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, who point to last chances and closing windows. The stars are in their mid-30s, like many on the team. While the pending post-primes and retirements could point to signs of hope, we all know how good the Dodgers farm system is.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 30: Trent Grisham #12 of the New York Yankees makes a catch for an out on a ball hit by Jahmai Jones #37 of the Boston Red Sox during the sixth inning in game two of the American League Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium on September 30, 2026 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Caleb Bowlin/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Yankees outfielder Trent Grisham has been nursing right hamstring issues since the summer. Two injured list stints and many missed games later, the problem appears to be mostly behind him, as he was activated on time for the AL Wild Card Series against the Boston Red Sox. We say ‘mostly’ because, even though the Yankees have deemed him healthy enough to play, we have no idea if he’s actually close to 100 percent, and the one thing we know for sure is he didn’t seem fully himself in the first series of the postseason.
He was fine at the plate, notching two hits and a walk in Wednesday’s Game 2, but he didn’t look the part in center field. He has been far from his 2020 and 2022 Gold Glove-winning versions in the last two seasons, but the image he projected in the Wild Card round was much, much worse.
The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner noted that Grisham’s sprint speed when attacking and fielding that ball was 23.5 ft/s. He was so slow that Nate Eaton took advantage and turned it into a double when it should have been a single. For reference, Kirschner reported that just three players had a slower average sprint speed than that this season, and all of them are what you would consider slow catchers: Christian Vázquez, José Trevino, and Sandy León.
Of course, the fact that he was so slow to the ball doesn’t necessarily mean that he can’t run faster. Maybe he was too confident and didn’t think Eaton would go for it. Or, perhaps, he was still tentative when running because he didn’t want to risk aggravating an injury that was already deemed a Grade 2 hamstring strain just over a month ago.
In any case, it’s definitely cause for concern. The Yankees would be better off handing regular center field duties to rookie Spencer Jones, who is younger and more athletic, and only using Grisham sparingly at the position if needed. This is not to say he should or shouldn’t be on the AL Division Series roster, but he is just not a starting center fielder at the highest level anymore. Not with two straight years of subpar performance there, not with a bum hamstring, and certainly not against the Rays.
When you face a team like the Rays, used to maximizing its strengths and attacking the opposing squad’s weaknesses, every little detail counts. Having a well below-average defender cover the most important outfield position regularly is, at this point, in this series, and against this particular rival, malpractice.
Grisham used to be a very, very solid defensive center fielder. The two aforementioned awards prove it. However, his decline started in 2025, when he finished with -11 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and -2 Outs Above Average (OAA) in center field. The 2026 campaign wasn’t much better. He posted -8 DRS and -6 OAA this year, in 961.1 innings. Evidently, he doesn’t have the range he used to have, and the hamstring(s) could be behind his regression with the glove. This season, Grisham ranked in the 18th percentile in Fielding Run Value, even worse than last year’s 30th percentile. His lousy range (OAA) had him in the 10th percentile.
The fact that he’s about to turn 30 — center fielders tend to decline relatively quickly with the glove — plus his injuries, have led to Grisham not being the defensive player he used to be. He suffered a left hamstring issue last year and experienced countless setbacks with the right hamstring in 2026.
Grisham’s bat and, especially, his power can still make an impact against top competition. The same can’t be said about his glove, and the Yankees should act accordingly.
OAKLAND, CA - AUGUST 11: Fans make fun of the "celery caps" in baseball on the eve of a Major League Baseball strike before the game between the Seattle Mariners and the Oakland Athletics at the Oakland Coliseum on August 11, 1994 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Brad Mangin/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Major League Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred has a rule: don’t talk about negative subjects or collective bargaining topics (one and the same, really) until after the trophy in his name is hoisted. Sorry Rob, but to paraphrase the Clown Prince of Crime: “the only sensible way to live in this world is without rules—and tonight I’m gonna break your one rule”.
Over the course of this 2026 MLB season, I checked in on some key topics regarding the upcoming labor negotiations (especially as they relate to the salary cap/floor issue)…
In April, I analyzed team franchise values and how rising valuations haven’t solved widespread financial inequity within MLB
August brought a straight-up poll (taking a lockout/strike off the table) that showed an overwhelming majority of Twinkie Town readers supporting a cap/floor salary structure in MLB
We’ve now reached the final phase of this series: how much Major League Baseball are you willing to lose for cap/floor progress? Per Hamlet: “Therein lies the rub”. One one hand, it’s clear the sustainability of baseball’s economics is heading in the wrong direction. On the other hand, MLB just saw its first four-year attendance growth period since 2004-2007. It is somehow both the perfect time and worst time for a lockout or strike.
One final thing to get out of the way: the worst possible lockout/strike scenario is a prolonged absence where nothing materially changes (see: 1994). I’m not even including the option in this poll because of how depressing that would be. So, assume in all choices that progress was made on a cap/floor salary structure.
I think all the qualifications are on the table now. Without further ado…
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 30: The Boston Red Sox look on from the dugout during the ninth inning against the New York Yankees in game two of the American League Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium on September 30, 2026 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Forget the results, if you can. Losing two games in a row is a rounding error for a baseball team in every other month, but in October, it’s definitive. Win and you’re good. Lose and you’re bad. In this telling, the Red Sox rapidly lost to the Yankees, ergo they’re bad. I disagree, and this felt different to me, at least through the first six innings of both games, when things were still close enough. I felt like it was the beginning of the next great era of baseball’s best rivalry.
Despite the result, I still think that.
Prior to this season — and maybe including it — I’ve felt that that the Red Sox/Yankees first-round playoff serieses haven’t been all that consequential or compelling, because the teams are so obviously limited. I mean sure, playoff baseball widens the aperture of what’s possible for good teams, but I thought neither team was likely to truly contend in 2021 or 2025, even with baseball’s chaotic-by-design playoff system. This year is different. While the AL competition was so soft, like it was for last year’s Patriots, both teams were plenty good enough to make the World Series, which is all you can ever ask.
The lack of Garrett Crochet and Aaron Judge left the series with a distinctly large cast of new main characters, personified by the starters, beloved Red Sox Nation blue-collar immigrant Payton Toll, despised Red Sox Nation white-collar emigrant elite Cam Schlittler and (sigh) Ben Rice. Central casting did its job for giving each fanbase its broadly-dreamt personification in a SP1, whether or not the personification has a representation in reality. we got what we wanted. The Yankees, with Rice and former MVP Cody Bellinger, got a little more, and their season continues.
But the broader question is: are we back? And not in a short-term sense? In the sense that the misery of the Yankees will return to the forefront of our minds on a daily basis? I hope so, because it’s so much better that way. I think we are, after a needed cooling off period, and not just for the fans but for the owners and the league. Sometimes you need a moment alone. I live in suburban NY and they’ve hated the Astros since before COVID despite the multiple postseason matchups with the Sox, and I think older Red Sox and Yankees fans as a whole are happy for the interregnum on a broader horizon. Or maybe I’m just projecting, and it’s certainly something I have enjoyed. I’ve had a break, and I’m ready to hate again.
That is, there’s too much gold in these there hills to leave the rivalry comparatively dormant for so long. Not that you don’t want to beat each other, every game, but the feeling of something far beyond that. This feeling, like a sourdough starter, needs time to regenerate; if it ends up taking 25-30 years, whih seems like an eternity in the moment, it’s just sort of how it has gone on a longer time horizon. The last high point was 2003-2004, but before that it was Bucky Dent, in the fertile year of 1978. Before that, DiMaggio and Ted Williams in the pre- and post-war 1930s/40s era. Before that, 1918. So yeah. Every 25-30 years it happens. It doesn’t have to be that way, but it just is.
On that schedule, I suspect or just wish we’re due for a Retvrn to becoming the biggest story in baseball on a daily basis, and one that expands the reach of the game as effectively as Shohei Ohtani, who’s done a decade’s worth of heavy lifting. I am definitely wishcasting this toward existence, but I also think it’s a real possibility for the next 5-to-10 years given how committed both organizations have been to similar projects in the last decade. Now they get to shut down the Dodgers by any means necessary this offseason and return to the top of the heap, even if they have to threaten the game’s survival to do so. And you know what? They’ll fuckin do it. If the Sox and Yankees aren’t top of mind, it’s gotta be a structural problem, right? Right?
True or not, both teams are so close to accomplishing a renovation that puts them back the center of baseball dialogue that we can almost taste it. If I’m right, the good news is that this year’s loss, while a bummer, is still just an appetizer, and hopefully the last one. We’re ready for the main courses. The divisional and LCS rounds beckon, and the identities of the post-teardown squads will further solidify. But the picture is coming in to focus: Schlittler will win the Cy Young; Tolle has won over everyone else. In this particularly illustrative case, the NY/Boston coding, as least as we’d like to conceive of it, is perfectly balanced, as all things should be. I hope this particular infinity war is ready to flare back up.
Today’s guest column is from professors John Cairney and Rick Burton.
Most baseball fans are currently focused on one of two things. If their team is still in the playoffs, they are obsessing over current and possible postseason matchups. If their club was eliminated, they are probably already looking toward 2027.
Almost nobody is thinking about collective bargaining. Almost nobody, except the obvious vested interests—and those of us who study the baseball business. That will change if Major League Baseball shuts down in 2027.
The league and the MLB Players Association have been negotiating a new collective bargaining agreement since May, with the current deal expiring Dec. 1. And perhaps no issue is more consequential—or potentially contentious—than MLB’s proposal for a salary cap and salary floor.
Enter the Milwaukee Brewers, winners of an MLB-best 103 games and, for the fourth consecutive season, the National League Central. And the Crew did it with nothing resembling baseball’s biggest payroll.
Of this, we are certain: The player’s union noticed.
MLBPA interim executive director Bruce Meyer has specifically pointed to the recent success of teams like Milwaukee when challenging MLB’s competitive-balance argument. His point is straightforward: Cap systems don’t guarantee competitive balance, because teams like Milwaukee’s payroll ranking (19th) and Tampa Bay’s (23rd) provide examples of lower-payroll teams keeping up with much richer clubs.
The Brewers and Rays (who won an impressive 98 games) therefore look like particularly compelling exhibits. To channel Dr. Suess, little cats A and B.
If two top teams can consistently win while spending considerably less than baseball’s financial heavyweights, what exactly is the problem a salary cap will supposedly solve?
Clearly, a careful owner doesn’t need to spend the most money to win division crowns. So why prevent billionaires (willing and able to spend lavishly) from opening their wallets for free agents?
Could an objective jury suggest this case should be closed? Not quite.
The Brewers and Rays got us wondering about the other side of the argument. If Milwaukee and Tampa Bay become exhibits for salary cap opponents, what would MLB owners say in response?
We came up with four answers. There are undoubtedly others—and perhaps better ones—but here’s our quartet.
First, four exceptions (we’ve added in little cats C and D with the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians) don’t necessarily make the rule. That raises the question of whether this is really about someone’s desire for “competitive balance.”
MLB has explicitly structured its argument around equality of opportunity rather than equality of outcomes. Under that framing, competitive balance doesn’t mean every club should finish 81-81. Why? Because superior scouting, player development, coaching and decision-making all create advantages.
Admittedly, our two exhibits have been exceptionally good at all of them. But that leads to a different interpretation of the success. Milwaukee and Tampa Bay may demonstrate that superbly run smaller-market organizations can overcome an annual financial/salary disadvantage.
But that doesn’t mean the disadvantage doesn’t exist.
Indeed, the Brewers, Rays, ChiSox and Guardians (they of the absolute lowest salary payroll) could be evidence for both sides at once. The union can say, “See, you don’t need a cap to compete.”
The owners respond with, “See how exceptionally well you have to operate a club without the resources of the wealthy.” Milwaukee, Tampa, Cleveland and Chicago prove the financial gap can be overcome—not that it doesn’t matter.
Second, building a winner and sustaining one aren’t necessarily the same thing. The Brewers and Rays have been unquestionably successful for multiple years. But two questions linger. Can they keep their rosters together as their best players become increasingly expensive? And come mid-October, can either club win the big prize?
MLB has made player retention a central part of its competitive-balance case, arguing smaller-market teams should have greater ability to retain the stars they develop rather than eventually losing them to clubs with greater financial resources.
Then there is October. Milwaukee and Tampa Bay have never won a World Series (and Cleveland hasn’t won since 1948). Indeed, Kansas City in 2015 remains the last small-market club to win the World Series.
That doesn’t prove a salary cap is necessary. Far from it. But it does point out a conundrum: Is possessing sufficient resources to compete over 162 games the same thing as possessing sufficient talent to continually assemble and win the Series?
The answer may be yes and no. This October will undoubtedly add interesting data points.
Third, perhaps big payrolls aren’t really about buying wins but more about the consequences of being wrong. This may be the most interesting argument, because one lingering “Moneyball” habit is thinking about payroll in terms of efficiency.
We can measure how many wins an organization purchased for each dollar spent. But can a 103-win team disappear from October in three games? Why, yes, they can. In fact, in 2001, the Seattle Mariners won a record 116 games and promptly lost the American League pennant to the Yankees in five.
This is the advantage of what Purple Row’s Renee Dechert, drawing on Pedro Moura, calls “optionality”: Better resources give teams more ways to respond when things go wrong. Wealth doesn’t guarantee better decisions. It makes bad ones easier to survive.
We think that insight leads to a broader question. Perhaps baseball’s financial imbalance isn’t simply about the unequal ability to purchase talent. Maybe it’s also about the unequal cost of failure.
Consider two teams that each make a $30 million mistake. A wealthy club can absorb it, find a replacement and try again. For a club operating closer to Cleveland, Chicago, Milwaukee or Tampa’s payroll, the same mistake consumes a far greater share of its resources—and leaves far less room to recover.
Money therefore may not buy certainty, but it may fund resilience.
If that postulation is true, the competitive-balance question changes subtly: Are wealthier clubs better positioned to survive the inevitable mistakes and misfortunes involved in trying to win it all?
The extraordinary efficiency of the 2026 Brewers and Rays doesn’t necessarily answer that question, but it may actually help illuminate it.
Finally, we think when the smoke clears what fans will see is that MLB’s owners aren’t proposing just a ceiling. They’re also proposing a floor. The league’s initial proposal would establish a $245.3 million salary cap and a $171.2 million salary floor in 2027.
Based on 2026 Opening Day payrolls, the Washington Post reported eight clubs would have needed to reduce payroll. But 12 would’ve been required to spend more. The Brewers, Rays, Guardians and the surprising Sox were four of them.
That turns the Milwaukee-Tampa example on its head. The owners’ response could be: Exactly.
Milwaukee has constructed one of baseball’s best teams while spending approximately $131 million. Imagine an economic system that required the Brewers to put another $40 million into that roster while simultaneously reducing the spending advantage enjoyed by baseball’s richest clubs. The numbers are even crazier for the Rays and White Sox. They’re positively insane for the Guardians.
That, in turn, invites an equally powerful response from the players. Why does accomplishing the first objective require the second?
The MLBPA’s proposal points toward another solution: Greater revenue sharing, coupled with penalties for clubs failing to meet minimum payroll benchmarks or invest revenue-sharing proceeds in players.
So, if Milwaukee can build baseball’s best team at its current payroll, why prevent the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets or anyone else from paying players what they believe they are worth? Why not strengthen revenue sharing and require lower-spending clubs to invest more in players—without imposing a ceiling?
And suddenly the Brewers, Rays, Guardians and Sox aren’t evidence for either side so much as evidence of how complicated the question is.
Competitive balance can mean comparable payrolls, chances of reaching October or the financial capacity to survive mistakes. Those are not the same thing.
Milwaukee, Tampa, Cleveland and Chicago will undoubtedly be part of the bargaining conversation despite their status as lesser cats. But despite the attention their success receives, how much should four exceptional teams really tell us about the economics of an entire league? Perhaps not much. Or, possibly, too much.
Then again, high-stakes labor negotiations are rarely won—or lost—on economic evidence alone. They’re often determined by brutal strategies and tactics requiring unwanted compromise or “couldn’t stand the pain” submission.
John Cairney is the dean of the School of Kinesiology at the University of Michigan. Rick Burton is Syracuse University’s David Falk Emeritus Professor of Sport Management and former commissioner of Australia’s National Basketball League.
Oct 1, 2026; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Derek Hill (not pictured) slides headfirst into third base with a triple against the Atlanta Braves during the eighth inning in game three of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Truist Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The season is over, but daily links continue.
On to said links:
Phillies News:
You may not want an analysis of last night’s events, but here one is.
Oct 1, 2026; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves infielder Matt Olson (28) runs the bases after hitting a solo home run against Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Jonathan Bowlan (not pictured) during the seventh inning in game three of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Truist Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Good morning, Camden Chatters.
Round 1 of the Orioles-less 2026 postseason is in the books. With the Braves finishing off the Phillies in the sudden-death Game 3 of the Wild Card Series last night, the Division Series matchups are set. Because of MLB’s bizarre decision not to re-seed teams between rounds, the American League pits the teams with the two best records against each other — the Rays and Yankees — while the White Sox take on the Guardians in an AL Central battle. In the NL, the Padres will face the top-ranked Brewers, and the Braves head to L.A. to face the two-time defending champion Dodgers.
Who are you pulling for, Camden Chatters? I’d say there’s only one series where I have a clear favorite, which of course is rooting for the Rays to win (or more accurately, rooting for the Yankees to lose). I have no strong feelings either way about the Guardians and White Sox, but I guess I’d lean toward Cleveland since it’s been nearly 80 years since their last World Series win.
As for the National League, I’d be happy for either the Brewers or the Padres — two teams who have never won a World Series — to make it to the Fall Classic, and in a perfect world they wouldn’t have to face each other until the NLCS. But only one can even advance that far. Each team’s roster is sprinkled with former Orioles — Manny Machado and Austin Hays for San Diego; Joey Ortiz and DL Hall (and Gary Sánchez) for Milwaukee — so pick your favorite. Meanwhile, it’s hard to get excited about the Braves/Dodgers matchup. Hopefully, whoever wins that series will lose swiftly to either the Brewers or Padres in the Championship Series.
Including the Rays, there are three teams still alive in the postseason that have a chance to win their first World Series in franchise history. That would be a cool thing to witness, even if it’s a far cry from the enjoyment we’d get if the Orioles were involved. But because the baseball gods don’t want us to have any fun, I’m sure we’ll just end up with a Dodgers/Yankees World Series that will make everyone want to throw up.
Davy Andrews revisits Craig Albernaz’s criticism of Samuel Basallo for not playing through pain, and points to Gunnar Henderson as an example of why that’s a misguided thing to say. If you can even imagine Craig Albernaz saying something misguided!
Well, my preferred answer — blow up the roster and replace everyone with better players — apparently isn’t happening, so your guess is as good as mine.
Orioles birthdays and history
Is today your birthday? Happy birthday! Three former Orioles were born on this day: outfielder Aaron Hicks (37), infielder José Morban (47), and right-hander Victor Santos (50).
On this date in 2012, Chris Davis tied an Orioles record by homering in his sixth consecutive game, providing the only offense in a 1-0 victory over the Rays. The O’s won despite the Rays’ James Shields throwing a complete game two-hitter with 15 strikeouts, as Miguel González and three Birds relievers kept Tampa Bay off the board.
In 2016, the Orioles clinched a playoff spot on the last day of the season by beating the Yankees, 5-2, in New York. Matt Wieters crushed two home runs in what turned out to be his final regular-season game as an Oriole. Kevin Gausman worked 7.1 strong innings, and Zack Britton got the last five outs to punch the Birds’ ticket to October, sending them to Toronto for the Wild Card Game. I forget what happened after that.
The O’s have also played four postseason games on Oct. 2, three of them victories. In 1996, they beat Cleveland, 7-4, to take a 2-0 lead in the best-of-five Division Series. The O’s stormed out to a 4-0 advantage by the fifth thanks to a Brady Anderson homer and RBI hits by Hall of Famers Cal Ripken and Eddie Murray, before Cleveland rallied to tie it up. The Orioles broke the deadlock with a three-run eighth inning that featured a fielder’s choice error, an Anderson sac fly, and an RBI single by another Hall of Famer, Roberto Alomar. A crowd of 48,970 was on hand for the festivities at Camden Yards.
In 1997, the Orioles again took a 2-0 lead in the Division Series, this time against Seattle, with their second consecutive 9-3 victory. Anderson homered and drove in three, Harold Baines hit a dinger, and Alomar and Mike Bordick each drove in two runs. That supported a strong effort by starter Scott Erickson, who held a powerful Mariners lineup to three runs in 6.2 innings.
And in 2014, the O’s opened the Division Series with a 12-3 shellacking of the Tigers at Camden Yards. Facing the first of Detroit’s three Cy Young-winning starters, Max Scherzer, the Orioles pounded him for five runs, including homers by Nelson Cruz and J.J. Hardy. Five different O’s batters had multi-hit games and seven drove in at least one run. This was a tense, 4-3 game until the bottom of the eighth, when the O’s exploded for an eight-run inning and sent 12 batters to the plate.
For a very few, the season is not yet over. The Arizona Fall League (AFL) beckons, and the invitations given often present signs of where a player stands in an organization and provide an opportunity for a player to redefine that path. Once seen, not so long ago, as a finishing school for top MiLB prospects, more recent versions have taken on a different cast. The league opens play tomorrow (Oct 3) and runs through mid-November. The Cardinal’s prospects will play for Peoria, teamed with players from the Baltimore Orioles, Cincinnati Reds, San Diego Padres, and Seattle Mariners.
Over recent years, the players invited have tended younger, no longer right on the cusp of MLB. And the reasons for their assignment vary. Some of the more common scenarios that lead to a player being sent to the AFL:
Players who have lost in-season time due to injury, are healthy now and will use the AFL to accumulate innings or plate appearances;
Players who have been in the organization long enough that they will be requiring a 40-man roster spot this fall and the team is not 100% sure where they want to go with said player;
Players who have interesting tools but haven’t quite developed enough to advance them beyond their level. Often, these players are facing a roster crunch at the next level, and the team needs another look to map out where they project this player.
So, who is all going for the Cardinals? And what is their story. Let’s look.
Bringing the 🔥 to the desert!
LHP Brandon Clarke (No. 9), RHP Tekoah Roby (No. 14) and OF Tai Peete (No. 17) lead the #STLCards minor leaguers named to the Peoria roster for the upcoming AFL season.
With slightly less fanfare, that initial post was followed yesterday by:
RHPs Joseph King and Nolan Sparks have been added to the Peoria AFL roster.
LHP Brandon Clarke will not participate in the AFL and undergo a minor procedure to remove a loose body in his left arm. He will join staff in Jupiter later this month to continue training and be ready… pic.twitter.com/api8pBHSQY
— Cardinals Player Development (@CardsPlayerDev) October 1, 2026
Tai Peete, CF, AA, Age 21
Tai Peete was acquired from Seattle last off-season in the Brendan Donovan trade. One of the more mercurial prospects in the Cardinal prospect pipeline, Tai carries a 60-grade FV (from Baseball America) with an Extreme risk rating. BA really likes him, ranking him #10. MLB.com has him #17 and Fangraphs at #21. Quite the range.
He is a player still adjusting to a position change (moving from the dirt to CF) but is viewed as above-average out there already. Tai really only played half a season this year, mostly due to injury, across the High-A and AA levels. Even in the crazy offensive environment of the lower minors, he was 16% above average (wRC+ 116). Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Ability to make more contact will define his level of success. For him, the AFL offers the opportunity to round out his playing time.
Sammy Hernandez, C, High-A, Age 22
Sammy Hernandez was acquired from Toronto (for Genesis Cabrera) in the midst of the 2023 season, so it seems like he has been in the system forever. A development project if there ever was one, he has bounced between Low-A (Palm Beach) and High-A (Peoria) for 3 different seasons now. This season was his best and could be considered a least a bit of an offensive break out. His 17% walk rate suggests he is overcoming major plate discipline and swing decision issues that plagued him earlier. The 18% K rate probably confirms that. Carrying a wRC+ of 140 and lots of other gaudy statistics begins to make this look like an offense-first Catcher in the mold of Ivan Herrera. Sammy falls into category#2. He is rule V eligible this winter for both the MLB and MiLB versions of the Rule V draft (not sure if either will happen). His age works in his favor. His presence in the Cardinal system, seemingly deep with catching prospects, does not. If there is a Rule V draft, he will be eligible for the minor league portion, and some smart team likely takes him. I’d put Anaheim at the top of that list. By and large unranked (in a class of ~53 prospects by FG) by prospect evaluators, the AFL assignment lets the club get one more look at him against what portends to be a bit stiffer competition than High-A. Intriguing.
Cade McGee, Util, AA, Age 23
Cade was a 9th round draft pick in the 2024 draft, so he hasn’t been around all that long, so he doesn’t fit the profile of a player needing a 40-man roster spot this winter. He didn’t get 100 games in this year, so they may well be looking at extending his season to get reps in. I listed him as Util because of the distribution of games played by position: C – 24, 2B – 22, 3B – 18, 1B – 18, DH – 14. Versatility is good, but it limits the reps at any one position, and I suspect the AFL may help fill that gap. I note that since moving to Springfield, he has been confined to 3B and 2B. The hit tool looks OK, not much power (not enough for CIF anyway) but still a wRC+ of 115 across two levels. A very late in the season promotion to Springfield (AA) along with this AFL assignment suggest they may be pushing him a bit.
Brandon Clarke, SP, AA, Age 23
Clarke was acquired in the Sonny Gray trade, which appears to have worked out really well for all sides. He is a 2024 draftee, so there are no Rule V considerations here. His season didn’t start until June after off-season arm surgery to address circulation issues, so he fits the AFL assignment category#1 neatly. Brandon fits anywhere between #5 and #16 on the Cardinals prospect list, depending on which pub you go by. BA is least optimistic on him yet grades his FB at 60 and his slider at 70 (not a grade they hand out often). Note: FG rates that slider at 80. Injury and command issues are his stalking issues. Clarke started his season at High-A, finished pitching at AA and went to the Development List just before season’s end, ostensibly to prepare for the AFL. While the AFL isn’t deep enough to be considered a finishing school, it could well be a launch pad for a pitcher like this.
Authors note: I wrote this brief before it was announced that Clarke would undergo minor surgery and not be able to participate in AFL games. I left it in, obviously.
Tekoah Roby, SP, AAA, Age 25
Roby was acquired from Texas in a multi-player deal that saw Stratton and Montgomery go to Texas and Roby, Saggese, King and International Bonus Cash coming to StL. Not a bad return. Prospect rankings on Roby are very tight, ranging from #12 to #14. All of those are certainly discounted due to injury (and recovery concerns). After ascending to AAA in 2025, Roby got hurt and spent the remainder of 2025 and 2026 recovering and rehabbing. He has been pitching for some time on the backfields at Jupiter, facing hitters. The AFL will allow him to get into game action for the first time and likely sets the stage for a return to AAA next year after a normal off-season. So, he is most definitely AFL assignment category#1. He will look to collect innings, work off rust and the typical command issues that come early in the TJ rehab cycle. Proving health will be key as availability has been his biggest liability up to now.
BA scouting grades (pre-injury) say it all: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55
Nate Dohm, SP/RP, AA, Age 23
Dohm was acquired last year from New York in the Ryan Helsley trade. While his current level shows AA, that was a very late season promotion resulting in only one game at the AA level. The rest of the season was spent at High-A Peoria. Nate finished the season on the Development, like Clarke, ostensibly to prepare for the AFL. Nate apears on the FG prospect lists at 34. BA and MLB.com agree, as they do not have them in their Top-30 list. Dohm overall is a 35+ FV, with a 60 grade FB, 50 grade slider and 50 grade command. He is not Rule V eligible this off-season, so he is not AFL assignment category#2 for sure. He got in 25 games, 13 starts and 12 relief appearances for 61 IP, so he ended up a little short on workload, which I imagine they wanted closer to 90 or 100 IP. I suspect the Development Team wants to accumulate more IP but also likely he will workshop some new pitching tools.
Michael Watson, RP, AA, Age 24
Watson came to the Cardinals in 2024 as an unrestricted free agent out of indy ball. He is unranked as a prospect, even on FG’s 53 deep list. He repeated AA this past season after a fairly successful 2025 season across High-A and AA. He is a lefty who is adept at missing bats with a side-arm, mid-tier FB, but lacks command, running a K-BB% at less than 15. His ERA- and FIP- run just slightly better than average for the league he was in. I’d place him in the tweener category — a guy who needs more than the 52.2 IP he got but also needs to show a little more if he wants to make the AAA roster next spring. So, more category#3.
Frank Ellisalt, SP/RP, High-A, Age 24
Ellisalt also came to the Cardinals with Dohm (and Jesus Baez) in the Helsley trade last year. He carries a #47 ranking on the FG prospects list and does not appear on shorter lists. He sports a FB and slider combo both graded at 60 (interesting!), but very poor command. He is not Rule V eligible until next year. Injury derailed his 2026 season and, like Roby, the AFL offers the opportunity to get some competitive pitches in before everyone goes home for the winter. Category#1 on this pitcher. It is good to see he has health back.
Towards the end of November, I’ll provide an update on how these guys did.
Joseph King, RP, AA, Age 25
King was a ninth-round draft pick back in 2022. He has been on the edges of the lengthier FG prospects list and not on anyone else’s top 30. He sports a good FB and power change but struggles with command. This was the first season his BB rate was decent (9.6%), allowing his excellent K rate (30% +) to play. Injuries have played a part, as well, appearing in only 34 games over the past three seasons. Rule V isn’t a concern with him, but making up missed innings is.
Nolan Sparks, RP/SP, AA, Age 24
Sparks was a thirteen-round draft pick in 2024. He does not appear on any prospect lists. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but he strikes out a lot of guys and walks a lot of guys, although this was his first full season. He pitched a few games after being drafted in 2024, pitched in 18 games in 2025 and carried a full load this past season, so catching up on innings doesn’t seem like a big concern. He isn’t eligible for Rule V, so that is not an issue. Since he wasn’t on the original roster, this may be more of a guy assigned to fill out the roster. He seemed to have a prominent role in the AA playoffs. Perhaps they find that 34% K rate at AA intriguing.
In other MiLB news
Also from the Cardinals today,
We have acquired RHP Brian Curley from Arizona as the Player to be Named Later to complete the August 3rd Lars Nootbaar trade. pic.twitter.com/XKQ3xQbX0X
— Cardinals Player Development (@CardsPlayerDev) October 1, 2026
For those of you that watched, you may remember Curley pitched the game of his life against Springfield in the AA playoffs. He was a 2025 3rd round draft pick for the D-backs. Will likely start the 2027 season in the AA rotation right alongside old friend Daniel Eagan. He will slot in the prospect list at around 30-35. For comparison sake, he was #21 on Arizona’s prospect list. Cardinals end up with four Arizona pitching prospects this year. Martinez for Arenado, Eagen, Santana and Curley for Nootbaar. Not hard to notice yet another young pitcher that does not need 40-man protection.
Last but not least
In the fun category, I present this post.
BA staffers drafted power-hitting MLB prospects with one goal in mind: have the team with the most major league home runs ⚾️
Which team do you think will have the most MLB homers between 2027-2030?
(Teams had to have exactly two top-50 prospects, two No. 51-100 prospects, two… pic.twitter.com/UpvilP7epu
Happy birthday to Rafael Lopez, and a mighty host of others.
Today in baseball history, in 1966 – Sandy Koufax of the Los Angeles Dodgers wins his 27th game of the season and the final game of his career. Koufax’s 6-3 win over the Philadelphia Phillies clinches the National Leaguepennant for the Dodgers; 1974 – Future Hall of FamerAl Kaline announces his retirement. During a 22-year career with the Detroit Tigers, Kaline compiled 3,007 hits and 399 home runs. He also batted .379 in the 1968 World Series; 1983 – Carl Yastrzemski plays in his 3,308th and final game, hitting a single as the team’s left fielder. After the Red Sox’s 3-1 victory over Cleveland, “Yaz” takes one more “final lap” around Fenway Park and will stay to sign autographs on Yawkey Way for over an hour; and 2016 – Veteran broadcaster Vin Scully calls his final LA Dodgers game, a 7-1 loss in San Francisco, after a record 67 MLB seasons, and other stories as well.
1936 – The Yankees even the World Series and set a Series record for runs as they demolish the Giants, 18 – 4. Lefty Gomez coasts to a six-hit win, while every member of the Yankees lineup makes a hit and scores at least one run. Tony Lazzeri hits a grand slam, the first in World Series play since 1920.
1947 – The Dodgers squeak out a 9-8 win over the Yankees, jumping on Bobo Newsom and Vic Raschi for six runs in the 2nd inning. Yogi Berra becomes the first player to hit a pinch home run in World Series history, belting one off Brooklyn’s Ralph Branca in the seventh inning.
1969 – Pete Rose, in the eighth inning of the Reds’ 8-3 win at Atlanta Stadium, clinches the National Leaguebatting title when he beats out a bunt to third base for a hit in his last at-bat of the season. The day starts with the Cincinnati right fielder tied with Pirates outfielder Roberto Clemente, who goes 3 for 4 against Montreal but finishes .005 of a point behind (.3447 to .3452) the eventual all-time hits leader.
1984 – In a game played with replacement umpires, the Cubs clobber the Padres, 13-0, in Game 1 of the NLCS. Chicago hits five home runs at Wrigley Field, including one by winning pitcher Rick Sutcliffe.
2001 – Slugging Sammy Sosa becomes the first player in baseball history to slug 60 home runs in three seasons. The Cubs outfielder connects off Lance Davis in the first inning of the team’s 5-4 loss to Cincinnati at Wrigley Field to reach the milestone.
2012 – Seven years after being beaned on the first pitch he saw in his only career plate appearance, derailing a promising career, former Cub Adam Greenberg gets a chance to bat again in the major leagues. The Miami Marlins send him up to pinch-hit in the 6th inning against the Mets’R.A. Dickey. He strikes out on three pitches from the knuckleballer, but the crowd cheers wildly as his story of perseverance has made him a hero to many.
2018 – The Rockies defeat the Cubs, 2-1, in 13 innings in the Wild Card Game. After scoring off Jon Lester in the 1st, the Rockies’ bats go quiet, while the Cubs tie it with two outs in the eighth when Javier Baez doubles off Adam Ottavino, scoring pinch-runner Terrance Gore. However, the Cubs, whose bats have gone stone cold of late, waste a number of other chances. Tony Wolters, the Rockies’ third catcher of the game, drives in Trevor Story with a two-out single off Kyle Hendricks in the 13th for the go-ahead run, and Scott Oberg preserves the win as Colorado will continue its travels, moving to Milwaukee, WI for Game 1 of the NLDS, its fourth city in four games.
1789 – George Washington transmits the proposed constitutional amendments, known as the United States Bill of Rights, to the states for ratification.
1866 – J. Osterhoudt patents the tin can with a key opener.
1919 – US President Woodrow Wilson has a stroke, leaving him partially paralyzed.
1925 – Josephine Baker first performs in Paris in La Revue Nègre at Théâtre des Champs-Élysées.
1950 – First strip of Charlie Brown, “Li’l Folks,” later “Peanuts,” by Charles M. Schulz is published in seven nationwide papers.
1967 – Thurgood Marshall is sworn in as the first Black Supreme Court Justice.
1977 – Austrian Ferrari driver Niki Lauda finishes fourth in the US Grand Prix East at Watkins Glen to clinch his second Formula 1 World Drivers’ Championship, while Englishman James Hunt wins the race.
2002 – The Beltway sniper attacks begin, extending over three weeks.
2009 – “Stan Lee Day” declared by County of Los Angeles and the City of Long Beach.
2016 – Kim Kardashian is robbed at gunpoint of $10 million worth of jewelry in her hotel room in Paris.
SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 12: Gary Sanchez #99 of the Milwaukee Brewers looks on during the fourth inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park on August 12, 2026 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It’s time for the Brewers’ 2026 playoff campaign to begin!
Anyone who wanted to see a second straight year with a testy intra-division NLDS matchup between the Brewers and Cubs had their hopes quickly dashed on Tuesday and Wednesday as the Padres, one of the hottest teams in baseball, utterly demoralized the North Siders with wins of 8-0 and 4-1. Neither game ever felt all that close.
Now, in their first series in the 2026 postseason, Milwaukee has to face off with the only team in baseball with a better winning percentage than them over the season’s last two months. Since August 1, both the Padres and Brewers won a league-best 35 games, but Milwaukee lost 18 while the Padres lost 17, giving San Diego the best record in the league in that span.
The Brewers also have some unwelcome memories against the Padres this season; in what was otherwise a magnificent regular season, the team’s low point (as well as this website’s comment section’s most anxious moment) came in the wake of a three-game sweep by the Padres in San Diego from August 10-12. Milwaukee held leads in the seventh inning or later in two of those three games, but the bullpen was unable to hold them, and after an 11-inning loss in the last game of that series with the Cubs mounting a serious charge for the division lead, it was a dark moment in an otherwise bright season.
Milwaukee, of course, recovered well — they won three of four against the Dodgers that weekend and played well down the stretch, and by the end of the season the thought that the Cubs were about to catch them felt ludicrous. But the Padres are one of the only teams that can say they had the upper hand over the Brewers this season — though in their other series this year, the Brewers took two out of three in Milwaukee early in the season.
Much of San Diego’s lineup comes in on a high note. Fernando Tatis Jr. was one of the league’s best players over the last two-plus months of the season; after not hitting a home run for the first two months of the season, he hit 25 from May 30 on, and he had a 1.012 OPS over the final 30 days of the season. Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill, and Ty France also had OPS numbers of at least .895 over the last month of the season, even while the first two of those players had generally underwhelming full seasons. France was a bit of a revelation; he hit .295/.363/.502 this season (a 139 OPS+) in 500 plate appearances, the best offensive season of his career, after he’d barely been a replacement-level player from 2023-25.
Much of their newly discovered offensive firepower was on display against the Cubs. Bogaerts went 4-for-8 with a double and a homer. Manny Machado was 3-for-7 with a double and a homer. Merrill went 4-for-7. Tatis homered. Gavin Sheets, who missed almost all of September, hit a massive two-run pinch-hit homer on Wednesday; he’s now homered in two of his last three at-bats going back to the regular season. The full-season numbers suggest that the Padres were a decent but not outstanding offensive team but make no mistake: they’re as hot as anyone in the league right now.
On the other side of the ball, the biggest questions come in the form of the Padres’ starting rotation. Michael King, who was outstanding on Tuesday to the tune of seven one-hit, shutout innings, had a very good season and slots in nicely as their ace. But after that, things are sketchy. Nick Pivetta started Wednesday and held the Cubs to one run, but he was a bit shaky — he allowed three hits and two walks in 3 1/3 innings — and he only managed eight starts during the regular season. Randy Vásquez, who had a 3.90 ERA and 4.24 FIP in 140 2/3 innings, might start a game, but after that things are extremely sketchy. Walker Buehler was second on the team in innings pitched this season, but he wasn’t very effective (4.64 ERA, 4.51 FIP). Casey Mize and Robbie Ray should be filling this role, but both of them have been disastrous since coming over at the trade deadline: Mize, who is on the IL anyway with a sprained ankle, had an 8.72 ERA in five starts, and Ray had a 7.56 ERA in four.
The danger on this pitching staff is in the bullpen. Mason Miller was the game’s best reliever this season. He is one of the only players in the league who can rival Jacob Misiorowski’s fastball velocity, and he finished the season in Statcast’s 100th percentile in xERA, xBA, fastball velo, whiff percentage, and strikeout percentage, with a 98th percentile finish in hard-hit percentage. With 129 strikeouts in 70 innings, Miller averaged 16.6 strikeouts per nine innings; that’s the fourth-highest K/9 rate ever for a player who threw at least 50 innings.
It’s not just Miller, though. Adrián Morejón, like Abner Uribe, is one of the best setup men in the league; he had a 2.37 FIP this season and offers a left-handed compliment to Miller. Yuki Matsui’s advanced numbers are sketchy, but he pitched to a 1.83 ERA in 64 innings this season. Young Bradgley Rodriguez is another flamethrower — he averages 98 mph on his fastball — and he was outstanding in 74 innings. David Morgan and Jhony Brito both had ERAs under 2.50 in September, and Jason Adam, who has had a sneaky great career, is back after missing essentially the entire second half of the season. He threw a perfect inning against the Cubs on Wednesday. Wandy Peralta is out there, too, finishing the season with a 3.61 ERA over 77 1/3 innings.
If the Brewers are going to win this series, they’re going to need to get ahead early in games, because if they find themselves needing to comeback against Rodriguez, Morejón, and Miller, they’re in big trouble. Home-field advantage should help, and the Brewers have been great down the stretch themselves. Several of their offensive players seem to be peaking at the right time, and there are no major health concerns that we haven’t known about for a long time. It will be a fascinating series.
Probable Pitchers
Note: the Brewers have announced Jacob Misiorowski in Game 1 and Logan Henderson in Game 2, but beyond that, neither team has announced anything. There will be a lot of conjecture here.
Game 1: Saturday, October 3 at 7:30 p.m.: RHP Jacob Misiorowski (16-5, 1.80 ERA, 2.17 FIP) vs. RHP Walker Buehler (9-6, 4.63 ERA, 4.51 FIP)
It will be crucial that the Brewers win Game 1. With King and Pivetta unavailable due to the Wild Card series, the Brewers will have a massive starting pitcher advantage in the first game of the series. I’m not at all sure that Buehler will be the starter—he supposedly was going to be if the Cubs had forced a game three in the Wild Card round. Vásquez has been fine as a back-end starter this season, but he’s been about league average, and the Padres left him off of their roster in the Wild Card round and don’t seem to be factoring him into their plans. Ray could get this start if the Padres prefer the lefty matchup, but Ray has been abominable as a Padre and that’s a big leap of faith. Whoever starts, it will be a quick hook, in all likelihood.
Game 2: Sunday, October 4 at 3:00 p.m.: RHP Logan Henderson (11-3, 2.47 ERA, 3.32 FIP) vs. RHP Michael King (12-10, 3.21 ERA, 4.13 FIP)
King will almost surely throw in Game 2 after four days rest; his last two starts of the regular season both came on four days so there’s no reason why they’d stop doing that now. As noted above, King is the Padres’ best starter and their best bet to get deep into a game. He’s also the only Padre who has beaten the Brewers in Milwaukee this season; he went 5 2/3 innings and allowed just one run on May 13. He did not pitch in the series in San Diego.
Henderson, of course, is no slouch. The Brewer co-ace did lose in San Diego but he didn’t pitch badly — five hits, one walk, three earned runs and seven strikeouts in 6 1/3 innings on August 10. Two of those three runs came in the seventh inning when Merrill got him for a two-run homer; I would not expect Henderson to still be pitching in the seventh inning of this game no matter how well he’s been pitching before that. Remember, that game in San Diego was near the end of a 17-games-in-17-days stretch.
Game 3: Tuesday, October 6 at 8:30 p.m.: LHP Robert Gasser (5-5, 3.87 ERA, 4.24 FIP) vs. RHP Nick Pivetta (3-2, 2.86 ERA, 2.21 FIP)
Since the All-Star break, Gasser has made 12 starts. The Brewers are 10-2 in those games, and over 63 innings, he’s got a 2.86 ERA and 3.47 FIP. He has earned this start. Gasser doesn’t have major strikeout stuff and he’s a relatively soft tosser, but like Henderson, he’s managed to just avoid hard contact; he’s amongst the better pitchers in baseball in terms of average exit velocity. He throws five different pitches at least 10% of the time, with four of those in a nearly even split (the sweeper, four-seam fastball, sinker, and cutter are all thrown between 18 and 25 percent of the time), which keeps hitters off balance.
Pivetta, as mentioned above, is a good pitcher, but he was hurt for much of the season and he looked a bit shaky on Wednesday. This is another one in which you would expect a quick hook.
Game 4 (if necessary): Wednesday, October 7 at 9:00 p.m.: Bullpen vs. Bullpen
I don’t think we’re going to see anyone on three days rest in this series, so I expect to see dueling bullpens in this one. Maybe we’ll see Aaron Ashby as an opener, which was a common tactic last postseason, but the Cubs and Dodgers both had platoon disadvantages versus lefties, which isn’t really the case with the Padres; aside from Merrill, all their best hitters are right-handed. It feels like this will probably be Dustin May, which I don’t feel great about, but maybe the Brewers can get two or three scoreless innings from him before handing it over to Ashby or Chad Patrick.
Game 5 (if necessary): Friday, October 9 at 3:30 p.m.: RHP Jacob Misiorowski (16-5, 1.80 ERA, 2.17 FIP) vs. RHP Michael King (12-10, 3.21 ERA, 4.13 FIP)
The extra day off here would enable the Padres to bump King into a potential Game 5 on regular rest. Misiorowski would still have a major advantage as a starter, but the chance to throw King instead of whoever starts game one here is a definite boost for the Padres. Let’s hope the Brewers end this series in four or less, and we are instead thinking about Miz as the Game 1 starter in the NLCS!
How to watch and listen
Saturday, October 3 at 7:30 p.m: watch on FS1, listen on the Brewers Radio Network
Sunday, October 4 at 3:00 p.m: watch on FS1, listen on the Brewers Radio Network
Tuesday, October 6 at 8:30 p.m.: watch on FOX or FS1, listen on the Brewers Radio Network
Wednesday, October 7 at 9:00 p.m. (if necessary): watch on FOX or FS1, listen on the Brewers Radio Network
Friday, October 9 at 3:30 p.m. (if necessary): watch on FOX or FS1, listen on the Brewers Radio Network
Prediction
One could easily make the argument that based on the last two months, this is the “real World Series.” These are the two hottest teams in the league, and while the Padres weren’t nearly as good as Milwaukee in the first half, not much separates them at this point in the season. There’s star power on either side, with Tatis, King, and Miller for the Padres and Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio, and Misiorowski for the Brewers. There’s even an old enemy in the form of Machado — we’re going to hear some of the loudest booing we’ve ever heard at American Family Field when he steps to the plate on Saturday.
The teams are closely matched. I’d give the Brewers a slight advantage offensively — their lineup is a little bit deeper. The Brewers have a good bullpen, but that is San Diego’s greatest strength, and it could end up being a real factor this postseason. Milwaukee is a better defensive team, certainly, and they should have an advantage on the basepaths, as well. But the big separator here is in the rotation: I don’t trust anyone past King for San Diego, while I’d certainly prefer Henderson and probably Gasser to whoever the Padres will use as their number two.
Milwaukee has a major advantage on paper in game one, and I like Henderson against King at home in Game 2. San Diego will probably get one in San Diego — that place was rocking against the Cubs — but I think Milwaukee will steal one on the road to seal the series. Let’s say Brewers in four.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 30: Cody Bellinger #35 of the New York Yankees reacts after a three-run home run against the Boston Red Sox during the sixth inning in game two of the American League Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium on September 30, 2026 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) | Getty Images
After a glorious playoff win against the Red Sox, the Yankees basked in a glorious offday. In a parallel universe, we may have been sweating out a do-or-die Game 3 against Boston, but in this universe, the Yankees left no doubt, pounding their rivals and giving themselves a chance to enjoy a full reset before this titanic ALDS clash with Tampa Bay. The Rays will be even more rested, but I’m sure the Yankees aren’t concerned with that; they’re rolling into the next round with the wind at their backs, an offense that’s suddenly clicking supporting a league-leading pitching staff.
On the site today, you can catch Andrew’s rundown of the Game 3 clash between the Phillies and the Braves, as well as Jonathan’s entry in the Yankee Birthday series, highlighting pitcher Spec Shea. Also, Andres implores the Yankees not to deploy Trent Grisham in center field, while Madison delivers the answers to this week’s mailbag.
Today’s Matchup:
Offday.
Questions/Prompts:
1. Who would you lean towards for the Game 1 start against the Rays?
2. Did any of the outcomes or performances of the four Wild Card Series particularly surprise you?
Sep 10, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; General view of the helmet used by the Milwaukee Brewers before the start of the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-Imagn Images | Stan Szeto-Imagn Images
Greetings, Brew Crew Ball community. The Brewers are set to begin their quest to the World Series this weekend as they have home-field advantage throughout the postseason, starting with the NLDS against the San Diego Padres, who took down the Cubs in the NL Wild Card Series this week.
Feel free to use this thread to chat about (almost) anything you want: video games, food, movies, non-baseball sports, the Brewers, you name it. As long as it’s appropriate and is allowed by our moderators, it’s fair game here.
