Category: Baseball

This is not going to be as fun as the position player article. This, you likely already know.

And this is why:

WAR by Team pic.twitter.com/YfnYk8NfKo

— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) September 28, 2026

I’ve shown you that chart before, but it’s worth repeating here. The Cubs, by fWAR, had one of the worst pitching staffs in all of Major League Baseball. The only reason they were in the postseason is the offense, which as you can see outpaced the second-place Dodgers… by a lot. If the 2026 Cubs had posted a league-average fWAR figure for hitters, they’d probably have finished well under .500.l Conversely, if they’d had league-average pitching, they’d probably have won 100 games and still be playing.

So, here we are. Jed Hoyer has a lot of work to do to improve this pitching staff for next year. He admitted in his year-end presser that he didn’t do very well in 2026. There are two major issues for Hoyer, in my view:

• Dumpster-diving for relievers. It worked in 2025. It spectacularly backfired in 2026.
• Pitching development has not produced the 98+ mile per hour fastballers that every other team seems to have on an assembly line.

Fixing those two things will not be easy. But that is what the Cubs must do if they are to compete with other pitching staffs in modern baseball.

The Cubs used 39 (!) pitchers this year, not counting catcher Carson Kelly, who threw in three blowouts, including one game the Cubs won. He posted a 6.00 ERA. Ten of the 39 actual pitchers had a higher ERA than that, and 12 of them had worse bWAR than Kelly’s 0.0 as a pitcher.

I’m not posting comments on 39 pitchers. Nor do you probably want that. Here are comments on 22 of them.

Shōta Imanaga: B

This grade will likely be controversial. I kind of look at Imanaga as the pitching version of Ian Happ — someone who Cubs fans love to dislike, but his performance is relatively solid.

It’s the home runs, right? That’s the biggest issue with Imanaga. Apart from those, though, he posted a 2.0 bWAR season, which is pretty much in line with his previous seasons. He was healthy all year and made 32 starts and went six innings or more in half of them. He doesn’t walk guys (5.2 percent walk rate).

I would not be against bringing him back at a reasonable price for a couple more years.

Matthew Boyd: C

Boyd made only 22 starts due to two injuries — a biceps issue that kept him out for much of April, then he hurt his knee playing with his kids and missed most of May and June.

Sometimes he was unhittable. Other times he was serving up long balls. (That wasn’t unique to Boyd, either, among this staff.)

He’s been a good Cub for two seasons and really seemed to enjoy his time here. But he’ll be 36 in February. There’s a $15 million mutual option which seems likely to be declined.

Colin Rea: C-

Like a lot of Cubs pitchers, Rea had issues with home runs. Oddly, after he left the rotation following the acquisitions of Clay Holmes and Kevin Gausman, Rea seemed the forgotten man. He appeared in only 11 games from Aug. 8 to the end of the season and threw just 19.1 innings.

He’s been a useful spare part for two seasons, but in a revamp of this staff, I think it’s time to move on.

Edward Cabrera: F

I’m honestly not sure what happened here. Cabrera was perfectly fine for his first seven starts, posting a 3.27 ERA and 1.282 WHIP, numbers completely in line with what he did in 2025 in Miami.

Then he started to get hit, hard, and wound up with an IL stint. He came back for one start in August, got hit hard again and left with a blister issue that kept him out a month. On his return he went to the bullpen and was bad again and was left off the postseason roster.

After those first seven starts he posted an 8.84 ERA and 1.707 WHIP and allowed 11 home runs in 38.2 innings, which is awful even by this pitching staff’s low standards.

Cabrera turns 29 in April and has two years of team control remaining. So do they try to fix him? Or put him in a trade package?

For whatever it’s worth, Owen Caissie didn’t have a good year in Miami, either, batting .220/.288/.412 in 108 games, with some IL stints. He struck out 123 times in 291 at-bats.

Ben Brown: A

Probably the biggest “what if” question about the Cubs this year revolves around Brown, who finally figured things out and had become an outstanding starting pitcher when the neck injury from two years ago reoccurred and forced him to the injured list in mid-June. Despite that, Brown led all Cubs pitchers with 2.2 bWAR, which tells you how bad the rest of the staff was. (It took Imanaga an entire season of 32 starts and 174.1 innings just to get to second on that list at 2.0.)

Brown’s best start of the year was probably his six-inning, four-hit, one-run, seven-strikeout game against the Pirates May 25. (And the Cubs lost that game 2-1!)

Here’s hoping for a full recovery and Brown leading the Cubs rotation in 2027.

Javier Assad: B

Assad became the guy Cubs fans loved to clamor for every time he was sent down to Triple-A Iowa. (That was done five times this year, the maximum for any player in a season.)

Truth be told, the Cubs might have been better off just putting him in the rotation and not trading for Kevin Gausman. Assad made 11 starts and posted a 3.49 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in that role. He allowed too many home runs (10 in 56.2 innings as a starter), but so did the entire Cubs staff.

After April 25, when he got pounded by the Dodgers for six runs in 2.1 innings, Assad posted a 2.63 ERA and 1.062 WHIP in 75.1 innings. Yes, the FIP was a bit high in that span at 4.92, but you can’t argue with the results.

Assad is who he is — about a 2 WAR starter who will consistently post an ERA in the mid-3s and keep the Cubs in games. Just give the guy a rotation spot in 2027. He’s a perfectly cromulent No. 5 MLB starter.

Ryan Rolison: B-

The Cubs saw something in Rolison even after he posted a 7.00 ERA for the Rockies last year, so they claimed him off waivers in January — from the White Sox, who had claimed him from the Braves in December, who had acquired him from Colorado for cash considerations in November.

Rolison was really good until mid-August when he ran out of gas — over his last 17 appearances he posted a 5.87 ERA and 1.565 WHIP, with a high walk rate (11.7 percent).

Overall, though, this was a very good year and he’s still pre-arb for 2027, which this front office will like.

Aaron Civale: B

Civale was poor as a starter for the A’s, so the Cubs acquired him by trade in July for a guy who had a 32.7 percent walk rate at Myrtle Beach (Aiden Moffett, and no I am not kidding about that walk rate, look here).

Civale had been pretty good in five relief appearances for the Cubs last year and he was very good again in 18 relief outings this year — 1.73 ERA, 1.064 WHIP, and only two home runs in 36.2 innings. (Given the propensity of home runs allowed by this staff, that seems important to note.)

He turns 32 next June and won’t be expensive to bring back.

Trent Thornton: C+

Thornton’s season was pretty much comparable to what he had posted in Seattle in 2024. His 2025 season was ruined by an Achilles injury, but he recovered from that and was a useful spare part in the Cubs pen. His season ended with an injury that appeared mysterious, as he had just thrown a good scoreless inning against the Pirates.

A nasty inning Aug. 28 vs. the Reds ruined his ERA for the season.

David Peterson: B

Peterson’s overall numbers with the Cubs were pretty good: 3.70 ERA, 1.369 WHIP. That included a horrific outing against the Cardinals July 3 (10 runs in 3.2 innings). After that he was quite a bit better: 2.66 ERA, 1.310 WHIP, only seven home runs in 71 innings.

Maybe they should have started him against the Padres. He threw well enough in relief in the Wild Card Series. I would not be opposed to bringing him back.

Clay Holmes: D+

Holmes started off well enough as a Cub, with a 1.55 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in five starts in August, with only one home run allowed in 29 innings.

September was not as kind: four starts, 8.24 ERA, 1.729 WHIP, 15 walks in 19.2 innings. These numbers are likely why he wasn’t used in the Wild Card Series.

He’s a free agent and I doubt he’ll be back.

Jacob Webb: C-

This is a tale of three seasons.

13 appearances through the end of April: 5.06 ERA, 2.062 WHIP, three HR in 10.2 innings
44 appearances from May 1 to Aug. 21: 1.55 ERA, 0.971 WHIP, three HR in 46.1 innings, 52 strikeouts
11 appearances from Aug. 24 to the end of the season: 9.90 ERA, 1.700 WHIP, four HR in 10 innings, four blown saves

That’s one really good reliever for three-plus months and two outright release candidates.

I can’t explain that. Can you?

The Cubs have a $2.5 million team option on Webb, so they’ll probably keep him for another year. The year as a whole wasn’t awful, but those four blown saves…

Kevin Gausman: D

Gausman’s nine starts as a Cub weren’t any better than what he did in Toronto over 23 starts there. He had a couple of really good outings, notably seven shutout innings vs. the Diamondbacks Aug. 24, but the bad outweighed the good, and his postseason experience, one of the reasons for the deal, turned out not to mean much.

The Cubs had one of their season ticket holder Chalk Talk sessions with Gausman in early September that I attended, and he seems like a thoughtful, good dude. He’ll turn 36 in January and I wonder if his career is over.

Ryan Zeferjahn: C+

You can see the talent, the 98+ fastball, it’s just thisclose but not quite all the way there.

There was the blown save in Milwaukee, but then there was the easy save he posted in the final home game against the Marlins.

The Cubs might have something here, and he’s pre-arb for 2027 and under team control for three years after that. So they have time to figure things out with him. Hopefully it works.

Daniel Palencia: C-

Anointed the closer in Spring Training by Craig Counsell, Palencia threw well for five outings, then hit the IL with an oblique injury.

Returning on May 4, he pitched all right, but didn’t get many save opportunities because the Cubs were winning blowouts and walk-offs, then they went on that long losing streak. In mid-June he had some elbow flexor inflammation and missed another two months.

His first five outings after returning were just plain bad: 14.54 ERA, 1.846 WHIP, two home runs in 4.1 innings and his velocity topping out at 98-99 instead of the 100+ he had thrown previous to the injuries.

Then things seemed to fall into place. Over his last seven appearances of the regular season, Palencia threw 7.2 innings, allowed one hit, three walks and one unearned run, striking out six and regularly hitting 100 again. He threw one inning in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series in San Diego and got taken deep by Gavin Sheets on a 101 mile per hour fastball that, well, a hitter shouldn’t be able to hit:

That was a good pitch and well located and I don’t see how Sheets hit that thing 394 feet.

It was a lost season for Palencia, but if he and Zeferjahn are 100 percent next year and Zeferjahn can throw strikes, maybe the Cubs finally have that 100 mile per hour late relief tandem that they’ve needed all along.

Phil Maton: F

Maton had a very good year in 2025 split between the Cardinals and Rangers. The signing did not seem unreasonable, even with Maton being 32, though I wouldn’t have given him two years.

The knee injury that ruined his season was evident as early as April 8, the first time he went on the IL after posting a 13.50 ERA and 2.500 WHIP, with four walks and two HBP among 24 batters faced.

He returned April 27 and gave up a pair of runs to the Padres in his first outing back — a game the Cubs lost 9-7. Win that game and the Cubs would have hosted the Padres in the Wild Card Series.

He pitched okay for a time, then went back on the IL in late June after blowing a save opportunity against the Mets June 25 by serving up a home run to former Cub Jared Young, the first batter he faced. (The Cubs won that game 4-3 in 10 innings.)

Returning from that stint July 19, Maton was given about the lowest leverage situation you could ask for: Throwing the eighth inning at home with a 10-0 lead against the Twins. He allowed three singles, a walk and a run. That was it, he hit the IL for a third time and finally had knee surgery in early September.

One wonders if Maton had the procedure when this first cropped up in April, maybe he could have come back and been effective in the second half.

We’ll find out next year because Maton was signed to a two-year deal (with an option for 2028!). Hopefully, things will improve. They really couldn’t get worse.

Hunter Harvey: F

I could have given Harvey an “incomplete” because he pitched in only four games for the Cubs. The “F” grade is really for Hoyer here, because he spent $6 million for those four games, and he did that knowing that Harvey had a long injury history. That was money basically flushed down the drain. He has a mutual option for 2027 that will almost certainly be declined. There’s no reason to bring him back.

Riley Martin: Incomplete

Martin’s a great story, a sixth-round draft pick in 2021 from Quincy University who almost gave up baseball for pharmacy school.

He threw very well in eight games before missing the rest of the season with a flexor strain. He did make one rehab appearance for Triple-A Iowa in September and could be an important part of the 2027 bullpen.

Jordan Wicks: D-

The only reason he gets a “D-” instead of an “F” is the 10th-inning save he posted against the Brewers June 28.

Wicks is only 27 and was a first-round draft pick. He has talent. Maybe the Cubs can turn him into the next Drew Pomeranz or Caleb Thielbar (at least when those guys were good).

Caleb Thielbar: D-

Speaking of Thielbar… this was a “roll the dice” signing at age 39 after his good 2025 season. It could have been predicted to fail, and it did. This is a D- instead of an F because over his last 14 appearances, Thielbar posted a 2.84 ERA and 1.184 WHIP and allowed just one home run in 12.2 innings.

Thielbar turns 40 in January and is almost certainly done. He pitched 10 MLB seasons and had a total of 5.2 bWAR and made about $15 million, which is pretty good for an 18th-round draft pick from South Dakota State.

Ethan Roberts: Incomplete

Roberts pitched quite well in two stints up to the middle of June. Those stints were interrupted by one of the weirdest injuries of the year:

Roberts’ setback was a laceration on the middle finger of his pitching hand — the result of a metal vent coming loose.

Roberts said he was on his ninth rep in a 10-throw workout involving a medicine ball, which is part of his daily routine. Without space to do the drill in the weight room, he moved to a tunnel at Citizens Bank Park. On the ill-fated throw, the medicine ball rebounded off one wall and hit a vent cover on another, dislodging it.

The vent was about to strike Roberts’ leg, so the pitcher reached back out of pure reaction. The cut is on the underside of the pitcher’s fingertip, which impacts his ability to throw. He did not require stitches, but he needs to let the wound heal before he can ramp up his throwing intensity.

Then over his last seven outings he had a 13.50 ERA and 2.625 WHIP and went on the IL with forearm inflammation. He did not pitch in MLB the rest of the year, though he did make 17 appearances for Triple-A Iowa, some on a rehab assignment, others on option after that ended.

As with many others, Roberts has talent and if he can be made right, he could be an important part of next year’s bullpen.

Braxton Garrett: Incomplete

Garrett was acquired from the Marlins at the trade deadline for Jonathon Long and Jace Beck. He was recovering from Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss almost two full seasons from mid-2024 to the middle of this year.

Garrett threw five innings for the Cubs against the Red Sox in the final game of the regular season, allowing one run. He’ll be in the mix for the rotation in 2027.

In alphabetical order: Charlie Barnes, Ty Blach, Tyler Ferguson, Gavin Hollowell, Cade Horton, Antoine Kelly, Luke Little, Corbin Martin, Hoby Milner, Jayden Murray, Drew Pomeranz, Yacksel Rios, Jameson Taillon, Vince Velasquez, Andrew Wantz, Bryse Wilson and Jake Woodford also pitched in at least one game for the Cubs in 2026.

The San Diego Padres have made the postseason for the third consecutive season. Each team claimed a playoff berth in a slightly different manner.

The 2024 and 2025 clubs leaned heavily on pitching to earn back-to-back postseason appearances. Often, the Padres required perfection from their pitching staff to stay competitive in a postseason series.

This season, the Friars rode their offense into October baseball, highlighted by clutch hitting from Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado, and Ty France. That same formula helped them advance into the National League Division Series against the Milwaukee Brewers. 

The bats are hot

The Padres may have the most explosive offense remaining in the postseason. Since July 17, the team’s batting average is .270. This is a remarkable feat because they posted a .226 batting average through the first 96 games of the 2026 season.

You cannot argue with the results; the Friars scored 343 runs in the team’s final 66 games. The offense averaged 5.20 runs per game, and it may be their blueprint for victory over the top-seeded Brewers.

Quick work in eliminating the Cubs

Granted, the starting pitching deserves some of the credit, but the bats set the tone for the series win over the Cubs. The lineup batted .328, outscored Chicago 12-1, and slugged four home runs in the two-game sweep. Machado’s bat came alive at the right time, as he hit .429 (3-for-7) with a home run, a double, two runs scored, and two RBI.

The results offer a stark contrast to last season. The Padres struggled badly at the plate in the 2025 Wild Card Series against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. In defeat, the team batted .189 and scored only five runs. The most alarming stat was the lineup striking out 20 times in 95 at-bats.

The Brewers’ pitching staff will be a formidable challenge for the Friars’ lineup. They must continue delivering timely hits with runners in scoring position. In the Cubs series, the club batted .500 (5-for-10) with RISP.

You might see small ball come into play in this division series. It is the perfect source to plate runs in expected low-scoring contests.

Good-hitting teams know playoff success begins and ends with quality pitching. The Padres have the right balance, and the Friar Faithful hope the magic continues for another postseason series.

Good morning everyone!

It’s Saturday and The Division Series’ are set to get underway this morning. In the meantime, it’s time to get you caught up on the latest news from around the league.

In Mariners news…

• The Mariners made a minor roster move yesterday, claiming first baseman Michael Toglia off waivers from the Reds.
• Over on The Feed, commenter Alexandra aka Blackbird gave the Brayan Villarreal Award to the most random player on each MLB postseason roster.

Around the league…

• The data is in: In the first season with ABS, 54% of challenged calls were overturned.
• After falling just two games short of a playoff spot this year, the Diamondbacks are planning to reduce payroll this winter.
• The Dodgers will have to try to win their third straight World Series with a hobbled Shohei Ohtani, who admitted he will not be fully healthy heading into the postseason.
• Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic argues that it’s time for the Phillies to consider drastic changes, with an expensive, aging core that fell short once again this year. ($)
• Over at Front Office Sports, LL alum Matthew Roberson wrote about how the baseball cap went from on-field uniform item to fashion staple for the everyperson.
• Over at Fangraphs, Matthew zeroed in on the key matchups that will determine each postseason series.
• Ryan Blake previewed the NLDS matchup between the Padres and Brewers, warning you not to overlook San Diego despite a 103-win campaign from Milwaukee.
• David Laurila at Fangraphs spoke to star Guardians closer Cade Smith about how he turned into one of the game’s best.
• MLB Trade Rumors dropped their arbitration projections for the 2026-2027 offseason.

David Lesky looks at what the Royals can learn from teams in the playoffs.

I’m not saying the Royals suddenly have a playoff offense, but some health and an addition or two could make the offense good enough with the right pitching in place. A guy like Vinnie Pasquantino getting back to where he was in 2025, along with an acquisition or two, and Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone taking a step forward could make this offense legitimately good in 2027. There are a lot of ifs, but they don’t seem quite as daunting as they have in the past. But boy do they need to figure out how to translate all the hard hits and batting average into runs scored.

Josh Hammond dropped to #82 in MLB Pipeline’s updated top 100 prospect rankings.

Hammond got off to an impressive start at Single-A Columbia in his first full season, and his improved chances of sticking at shortstop only increased enthusiasm. But he only slugged .312 over his final 40 games to finish as a league-average bat in the Carolina League on the year as a whole.

The Royals outrighted left-handed pitcher Luke Little off the 40-man roster.

Could a public vote halt a downtown Royals ballpark?

Shohei Ohtani won’t be at 100 percent for the playoffs.

The best potential World Series matchups for each type of baseball fan.

The super specific matchups that could decide each divisional series.

Red Sox pitcher Sonny Gray was frustrated in the lack of trust from his manager.

Aaron Judge undergoes an experimental blood treatment in an effort to get back on the field.

Some reports indicate the Phillies will part ways with manager Don Mattingly.

The Cubs are unlikely to win a bidding war for Seiya Suzuki.

The Diamondbacks will reduce payroll in 2027.

A look at this free agent designated hitter class for this offseason.

ABS overturned 54 percent of umpire calls this season.

The Trail Blazers fire announcer Braiden Bell one day after hiring him after some controversial tweets he made when he was 15 surface.

CBS parts ways with Tony Romo after his drunk driving arrest.

How healthy are berries?

The combination of Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery will be called Skydance.

A St. Louis man discovers his biological father is musician Michael McDonald.

Your song of the day is Tom Petty And The Heartbreakers with Into The Great Wide Open.

Meet the Mets

Carson Benge made his case for why he feels he deserves to win NL Rookie of the Year.

SNY.tv examined the state of the Mets’ payroll heading into the offseason.

Around the National League East

Following his relief outing in Game 3 of the wild card series, it’s not clear when Chris Sale will start for the Braves in the NLDS.

How do the Braves match up with the Dodgers? MLB.com offered the position-by-position breakdown.

The Phillies will be looking for a new manager this offseason, as interim manager Don Mattingly will reportedly not return to the dugout.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal argued that drastic changes are needed in Philadelphia.

There are now many questions facing the Phillies as they head into the offseason after another disappointing playoff outcome.

Federal Baseball examined the next steps for Nationals outfielder Dylan Crews.

Around Major League Baseball

It remains unclear whether Aaron Judge will be healthy enough to take part in the ALDS against the Rays.

Shohei Ohtani will be playing at less than full health this October.

The Dodgers are turning to Tarik Skubal to start Game 1 of the NLDS today.

MLB insiders offered their predictions for the kind of contract Skubal might look to sign in free agency.

Guardians manager Stephen Vogt and bench coach Tony Arnerich share a home in addition to a dugout.

With the next batch of playoff series starting today, there are significant questions at the heart of each series.

MLB Trade Rumors delivered their projected arbitration salaries for 2027.

MLB Pipeline provided an end-of-season update to their top 100 prospects list.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Allison McCague provided the final pitching meters of the 2026 season.

Brian Salvatore and Chris McShane delivered a postmortem on the 2026 Mets in the latest episode of Today Your Love, Tomorrow the World Series.

This Date in Mets History

Todd Zeile hit a three-run homer in the final at-bat of his career on this date in 2004.

LOS ANGELES — Josue De Paula will be on the field at Dodger Stadium on Sunday whether or not he plays in Game 2 of the National League Division Series. That’s because he and Christian Zazueta will be honored on the field as the Branch Rickey Award winners as the Dodgers 2026 minor league player and pitcher of the year.

De Paula is the Dodgers’ best prospect — in MLB Pipeline rankings updated just this week, De Paula is the fourth-best prospect in the sport, to name one outlet. He hit .303/.401/.547 with a 145 wRC+ 37 doubles, 27 home runs, 31 steals, 106 runs scored, 104 RBI, and nearly as many walks (81) as strikeouts (87) for Double-A Tulsa to win Texas League MVP, more than doubling his career highs in home runs and extra-base hits.

2-run homer for Josue De Paula 🔥 pic.twitter.com/UJG5S4uIQw

— Tulsa Drillers (@TulsaDrillers) August 27, 2026

Then De Paula made his major league debut in September, hitting a robust .323/.500/.581 with three home runs, a triple, and a double in 11 games when Shohei Ohtani was on the injured list, with 11 walks against only five strikeouts. There’s an excellent chance the 21-year-old will be active on the Dodgers’ roster for the NLDS against the Braves, and in between he reached base five times in three postseason games for Triple-A Oklahoma City, helping the Comets win the Pacific Coast League title and the Triple-A national championship game.

Zazueta didn’t win any particular league awards, but only because he split his time nearly evenly between High-A Great Lakes and Double-A Tulsa, posting a 3.65 ERA in 23 games, including 22 starts, with 144 strikeouts against only 20 walks in 103 2/3 innings. Among the 264 pitchers with at least 100 minor league innings in 2026, Zazueta’s 30.4-percent strikeout-minus-walk rate was the best.

In 12 starts for Double-A Tulsa, Zazueta had a 3.44 ERA and 78 strikeouts against only eight walks. The Mexican right-hander, acquired from the New York Yankees for Caleb Ferguson in February 2024, turns 22 on Wednesday.

Christian Zazueta strikes out 7️⃣ tonight! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/mh9yCo1GT3

— Tulsa Drillers (@TulsaDrillers) September 18, 2026

This is the second straight Branch Rickey Award for Zazueta, who was also the Dodgers minor league pitcher of the year in 2025 as well. He’s the fourth Dodger to win multiple minor league pitcher of the year awards since the honor began in 1989, joining Chad Billingsley (2004-05), James McDonald (2007-08), and Zach Lee (2013, 2015).

(For the maximum Pump Up experience, start playing RIGHT NOW by Van Halen, right now)

Ahhh, so, here we are again. Back in October, as usual. Right at home. Another year of walk offs, of comebacks, of a race to the finish won. Of a homegrown rotation, of an underrated bullpen, of some hot bats at the right time! Some familiar faces, and hey, some brand new (this is where the cut up shows Bailey and Adell). Another division title, another season to remember. Because this is our month. Other cities may think of football and pumpkin patches for their weekends in October- but in Cleveland, it’s about the Playoffs.

(This is where it beat turns up)

It’s about the staff bulldog who chews up the innings and puts it all out there to give us a fightin’ chance. It’s about the unlikely heroes who go from the fringe of the roster, to immortality with one swing of the bat. Or the young Superstar who’s gonna take us home on the Country Roads. It’s about that fearless reliever with the right arm of God, who says anytime, any place, any one, I’ll take them out. Yeah, those guys. 

And yeah, sure, Chicago thinks they’ve got them too. And don’t get me wrong, they had a good year. But now they’re the Freshmen at the Senior party, and it’s time to show them the door.

And maybe they do get a moment or two. But I didn’t come here for a moment. No, our goal is much shinier than just another soul crushing homer off an AL Central Runner-Up.

No because none of us came here for another October exit. One where we leave that empty gross taste in our mouth? No no not this year. Not another year of the Yankees and Dodgers fans getting fat and happy off a meaningless & heartless run.

Not this year. I didn’t come THIS FAR just to come THIS FAR!

No, this year something’s different. Sure, we might still have “one of the youngest rosters in the league”, but there’s something about THIS group. Throw those stat books away because in October, you know it’s about the Dudes that can have that one hot week, or hell, maybe just that one big at bat, that can make a difference. And ya know what, I know we have them…

Is this the month where Bazz reminds us why he went #1? Or where K’d says he’s everything you could have ever asked of that last Closer or Miller Time. And I KNOW Jose isn’t gonna let his 2026 be remembered for being a let down! No way-

So why not us? Why not us, right here, right now?!

(Hey, look how that worked out!)

Inspired by dozens of movies, high school coaches and promos

Anybody's game.

Welcome to game one of the ALDS.#GuardsBall | #StandGuardpic.twitter.com/df4UyJm3uh

— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) October 3, 2026

Heading into the National League Wild Card Series against the Chicago Cubs the belief was that Michael King would start Game 1, Nick Pivetta would start Game 2 and Walker Buehler would start Game 3 if he was needed. The San Diego Padres ensured he would not be needed with a two-game sweep of the Cubs, which earned them the opportunity to face the top-seeded Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Division Series.

As a result of San Diego’s quick work of Chicago, the Padres had two days off to rest and prepare for their NLDS matchup with the Brewers. That also allowed time for San Diego manager Craig Stammen and his staff to look at the rotation and the best way to get the most out of that group to give them a chance to win and advance to the National League Championship Series against the winner of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves.

The prevailing thought, at least among much of the Friar Faithful, was that Buehler would take the mound in Game 1 and depending on how the game went, Stammen and the Padres would lineup their starters for the remainder of the series accordingly. That thought was put to rest on Friday when it was announced that trade deadline acquisition Robbie Ray would get the ball in Game 1. The left-hander has had an up-and-down tenure in San Diego since being acquired from the San Francisco Giants, but he is an established veteran with many years of experience and an American League Cy Young Award (2021) on his resume.

Ray had a season record of 10-6 with a 3.08 ERA in 22 games with the Giants, making him one of the top trade candidates at the deadline this year. The addition of the left-hander and former Detroit Tigers pitcher Casey Mize was considered one of Padres general manager A.J. Preller’s most successful deadlines in his tenure in San Diego. Since being acquired, Ray has a record of 3-2 with a 5.02 ERA in nine games. He also had 57 walks and 107 strikeouts with San Francisco and has 27 and 33 in the same categories with San Diego.

It is surprising to see Stammen going with Ray against Misiorowski who is the clear favorite to win the Nationals League Cy Young Award for the 2026 season, but it is understandable when you consider the Padres bullpen. All that Ray has to do is get through four innings, at worst three, and San Diego can lean on the bullpen to cover the rest of the game. The roster for the NLDS has not yet been announced but the names that will surely be there like David Morgan, Yuki Matsui, Bradgley Rodriguez, Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller would be enough to cover five innings if Ray can get through four. Any additional arm like Wandy Peralta, Randy Vasquez, Kyle Hart or even Joe Musgrove would simply allow for matchup flexibility and would serve as “break glass in case of emergency” arms in the series opener.

The idea is for the Padres to split the two games in Milwaukee to give them a chance to clinch the NLDS and move onto the NLCS in front of the 47,000-plus fans who packed Petco Park in the Wild Card Series. San Diego has a clear home field advantage and the only drawback from the series against Chicago is that is no longer a secret. The Brewers know they HAVE to get two at home or they run the risk of their 103 win season coming to an abrupt end in America’s Finest City.

The series kicks off tonight at 5:30 p.m.

Padres News:

• Cheri Bell of Gaslamp Ball recaps one of the most successful weeks in Padres history.

• Xander Bogaerts and his new split-grip technique at the plate is batting .500 in two postseason games. Sure it’s not a large sample size, but if he can keep it up, it might be enough at the right time to put the Padres past the Brewers.

• With Jacob Misiorowski and Mason Miller taking the mound, there will be no shortage of heat in the NLDS.

• The San Diego offense has gotten hot at the right time and it will need to stay hot against the top pitcher in the NL to have a chance to win Game 1.

• Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune is calling his shot and says the Padres will win the NLDS.

• Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts is once again using the Padres to motivate his team, this time he is taking quotes from the new San Diego owners out of context.

Baseball News:

• Tarik Skubal, not Yoshinobu Yamamoto will start Game 1 of the NLDS for the Dodgers.

• The major league season may be coming to a close, but the Arizona Fall League is just getting started.

• Here is the schedule for all the NLDS action.

Things are heating up in this MLB postseason, and the Los Angeles Dodgers are back at it, with a chance to win the World Series.

If the Dodgers are successful, it will complete a three-peat, which hasn't been done since the New York Yankees from 1998-2000.

The Braves will be the first team with an opportunity to spoil that possibility in the National League Division Series.

Atlanta won the regular-season series, having won five out of the six games played while outscoring Los Angeles 26-15. The Dodgers won the first meeting before dropping the last six to the Braves.

Left-handed pitcher Tarik Skubal will be the Los Angeles Dodgers' Game 1 starter against the Atlanta Braves on Saturday, Oct. 3

The Dodgers will host the first game of the series at Dodger Stadium, though the California sun is expected to play a factor.

Here's what you need to know about the forecast heading into Game 1:

Los Angeles forecast for Saturday, Oct. 3

The temperature is expected to reach 105 degrees on Saturday. The temperature will approach the record-high 108-degree day set in 1987. AccuWeather notes that the "extreme heat can be dangerous for outdoor activities."

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Brutal weather in store for Dodgers-Braves MLB playoff series

LOS ANGELES — Saturday afternoon at Dodger Stadium starts the 29th postseason series for the Dodgers during their record-tying 14 consecutive seasons making the playoffs. It’s the 23rd postseason series for manager Dave Roberts, who is in his 11th season at the helm in Los Angeles.

“It’s important. Just to hold serve at home I think is important. To take on a team that’s coming out of a series with momentum and then to kind of gain the momentum by winning Game 1, very important,” Roberts said Friday. “Maybe not as important as a three-game series, like we’ve been in before, but Game 1 is important. I think it just certainly sets the tone and gives you a lot of momentum.”

Since 2013, the Dodgers have played in two best-of-3 wild card series (I did not count their 2021 National League wild card game win over St. Louis as a Game 1), 13 best-of-5 NL Division Series, and 13 best-of-7 series (eight NLCS trips, five World Series). That’s 28 total series for the Dodgers in 13 years, and those series saw the Game 1 winner also capture the series 21 times, or 75 percent of the time.

Winning the first game of a postseason series doesn’t guarantee anything, nor does losing Game 1. After all, the Dodgers under Roberts are 15-7 (.682) when facing elimination in the postseason since 2016, while the rest of MLB is 80-100 (.444) in such games.

But it certainly helps getting a leg up by winning Game 1.

“Setting the tone, getting the win in that first game is very important. I think one thing we do very special here is we play today, we’re not worried about tomorrow or what we did yesterday.” said Alex Vesia, who is in his sixth postseason in his six years in Los Angeles. “Taking it one game at a time, we just want to win today. That’s something you hear, and then actually going through it, there’s a difference.”

Here’s how the numbers look over the previous 13 postseasons, in all series best-of-five or longer.

	Total DS	G1 winner in series	Total CS	G1 winner in series	Total WS	G1 winner in series
MLB-wide	52	42-10 (.808)	26	19-7 (.731)	13	9-4 (.692)
Dodgers	13	10-3 (.769)	8	6-2 (.750)	5	3-2 (.600)

The Dodgers’ series since 2013 in which the Game 1 winner did not win the series were the 2017 World Series, 2018 NLCS, 2019 NLDS, 2020 NLCS, 2021 NLDS, 2022 NLDS, and the 2025 World Series.

In this particular NLDS against a Braves team that is running a bullpen game on Saturday after a taxing three-game wild card series, a Dodgers win in Game 1 (and perhaps Game 2) has a particular chance in potential reverberating throughout the Division Series.

“The advantage for us is we have an opportunity to not let their pitching staff come up for air, and how do you do that? You have to exhaust the starter,” Roberts said Friday. “You have to get in their pen, and you have to have them deploy arms as soon as possible and get that carousel going and continue to beat starters. Then you can suffocate them.

“But if you sit back and let that starter go six or seven innings, that now resets pen, and it changes the dynamic of a series. So yeah, we have an opportunity to really expose them if we take the right at-bats and the right approach.”

It’s the start of the Dodgers postseason on Saturday, but here are some related and adjacent stories that aren’t necessarily about the National League Division Series.

Andy McCullough at The Athletic wrote about the Dodgers’ place in baseball heading into the postseason, and their role as the main antagonist for many about two months before Major League Baseball will lockout its players once the collective bargaining agreement expires. But he also wrote about the attention to detail the Dodgers have, that hasn’t gone unnoticed by players old and new to the organization. From McCullough:

“We’ve done all the little things that we’ve needed to do, and we don’t get the credit for that,” Muncy said. “We just get the credit that we’re all big names on big contracts, and that’s why we won. And that’s not really the case.”

And the organization does the little things to enhance their performance, something Skubal had understood from afar. The Dodgers made headlines when the club purchased a second plane in 2025 so the players could fly separately. After the Tigers drafted Skubal in 2018, he played in the Class A Midwest League, where the Dodgers also had an affiliate.”They had two buses in Low A,” Skubal said. “That sounds like nothing. But having your own seat on a five-hour bus ride or a six-hour bus ride, instead of having to double up or lay on the floor, it matters.”

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Former Dodgers catcher Russell Martin this week was elected to the Quebec Sports Hall of Fame. The Montreal native was a two-time All-Star in Los Angeles and was a Gold Glove Award and Silver Slugger Award winner in 2007 with the Dodgers. Martin played for four teams in his 14 major league seasons and made the postseason at least twice with all four teams. Kevin Glew at Cooperstowners in Canada has more on Martin’s latest honor.

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Zach Ehrhard rounded out a very nice season for Triple-A Oklahoma City with four multi-hit games during the postseason, helping the Comets to a Pacific Coast League title and a win in the Triple-A championship game. In those four games, Ehrhard had nine hits in 17 at-bats, including a home run and three doubles, plus three walks and a hit by pitch, for tidy .529/.619/.882.

On Wednesday he was named at Baseball America as one of 15 prospects who dominated in the minor league playoffs.

“Ehrhard doesn’t have the upside of some of the other prospects on this list, but he’s a high-probability big leaguer,” wrote Ian Cundall at BA. “He ranks among the Top 30 prospects in the Dodgers’ system and could carve out a solid career as a backup outfielder.”

Baseball America ranks Ehrhard as the No. 12 prospect in the Dodgers’ system, with six outfielders above him, highlighting the strength of the position within the organization.

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For another NLDS preview, here is the latest Three-Inning Save podcast.

I have to tell you that I don’t feel great about about tonight. The starting pitching is in disarray for today. Chris Sale or Tyler Mahle won’t be able to help out. There’s Didier Fuentes, Brent Suter, Dylan Dodd and Robert Suarez as multi-inning options. JR Ritchie and AJ Smith-Shawver are also available. It will be a problem if the Braves start this series 0-1. I had the Dodgers in 4 in our preview. I would say either Braves or Dodgers in 5 if it weren’t for the quick turnaround for today. It’s not fatalism. But that’s just like, you know, my opinion, man.

So what is your prediction for Braves versus Dodgers? I want to be moved toward supporting a Braves series win. The easiest route to a win is if the Dodgers don’t hit homers. Teams that outhomered their opponents typically win 70-80% of the time. It’s more like 80-90% in the playoffs. If you consider all active roster pitchers, the Braves have the second lowest HR/FB ratio. So that’s removing the “contributions” of say, Danny Young and Aaron Bummer. After that’s done, you have a decent route to victory. The Dodgers are eighth in this statistic, so it will be tough sledding.

Of course, that’s just one factor of several to consider. And you all may have a better gut feeling than I. So let’s hear your predictions.

This is where things get down to the brass tacks. The Yankees swept the Red Sox aside in the AL Wild Card Series, boat racing Boston by a combined score of 18-2, to fly into the ALDS with belief and positive momentum. It’s a whole other beast they’ll face in the Rays, their offense rolling into the postseason in far better shape than the Red Sox.

The Rays raced out to an AL-best 98 wins, significantly outperforming their Pythagorean win-loss thanks to one of the most well-rounded approaches in baseball. Despite sitting middle of the pack in runs per game (4.54) and slugging (.402), Tampa Bay’s offense still finished with the fifth-best wRC+ (104). Their offense has a clear identity built around power at the top, speed, and bat-to-ball prowess. They struck out the least (18.8-percent) of any team in MLB, which helps explain how they tied with the Brewers for the league lead in batting average (.258), and when paired with their AL-leading 164 stolen bases allows them to get the most out of the traffic they generate.

The ever consistent Yandy Díaz leads things off, coming off his fifth-straight season with at least a 120 wRC+. He played 154 games, slashing .293/.359/.446 with 22 home runs, 85 RBI, 93 runs scored, and a 125 wRC+ while continuing to be almost impossible to whiff and strike out. He has hurt the Yankees his whole career and that was especially true in 2026, when he batted .362 with a .944 OPS and 154 wRC+ in 51 plate appearances. The lone holes in his swing are against high-spin four-seamers from right handers up and in or middle-away, a pitch which Games 1 & 2 starters Gerrit Cole and Cam Schlittler specialize in.

Jonathan Aranda bats second coming off a season in which he batted .274/.358/.434 with 22 home runs, 92 RBI, 73 runs scored, and a 123 wRC+. However, the Yankees had his number all season, holding him to a paltry .427 OPS and 15 wRC+ in 47 plate appearances as they were able to strike him out 34-percent of the time. He has shown a willingness to chase the fastball above the zone, which happens to be a weapon pitch for all four of the starters the Yankees plan to roll out.

Those two set the table for the scariest threat in the Rays lineup: Junior Caminero. The third baseman became just the second player in MLB history after Eddie Matthews to post consecutive 40 home run seasons before turning 23. He added patience to his game in 2026, almost doubling his career walk rate to finish with a .276/.360/.524 triple slash line, 42 homers, 101 RBI, 100 runs scored, a 142 wRC+ and 5.3 fWAR while posting the highest average bat speed in the league. He holds his own against almost every pitch but does most of his damage against the heater and breaking ball. Just three of his home runs have come against the off-speed so I expect the likes of Max Fried and Carlos Rodón to feed him a steady diet of changeups down and away. Encouragingly, the Yankees were one of the few teams that managed to rein him in — in 54 plate appearances he managed just a .565 OPS and 51 wRC+ with Yankees pitchers getting him to pop it up on over 30-percent of his batted balls.

MLB stolen base leader Chandler Simpson figures to bat in the middle of the order. He was the only qualified hitter in 2026 to not hit a homer, but was also one of just seven qualified hitters to bat above .300, his 7.8-percent strikeout rate second-lowest in baseball. He’s joined in the middle of the order by Victor Mesa Jr., the rookie acquired from the Marlins over the winter and promoted mid-season to hit 14 home runs with a 128 wRC+ and 2.6 fWAR in just 79 games. Generally batting ninth is shortstop Taylor Walls, whose 74 wRC+ at first glance wouldn’t scare you yet he has managed to be a thorn in the Yankees’ side with a 120 wRC+ in 111 plate appearances over the last four years.

For the rest of the spots in the lineup, the Rays tend to go with a strict platoon. Liam Hicks usually bats cleanup against righties, the catcher posting a 130 wRC+ with as many walks as strikeouts since joining the Rays from the Marlins at the deadline, while Nick Fortes tends to start against southpaws. At second base, Richie Palacios owns a 113 wRC+ against righties while Ryan Vilade owns a 126 wRC+ against lefties. In center, Cedric Mullins is probably the one guaranteed soft landing spot against righties with his 80 wRC+, while Jonny DeLuca is a far more potent weapon when a lefty is on the mound (114 wRC+).

Put together, Kevin Cash can rely on guaranteed production at the top of the lineup while a deep bench gives him the opportunity to mix and match depending on the matchup. He has shown all season that he remains one of the best managers at putting his players in the best positions to succeed thus squeezing every drop out of the true talent level of the roster. You know the Rays are going to do all the little things right — taking the extra base, moving the runner over, getting the run in from home with less than two outs — which makes the three-headed monster atop the lineup their X-factor in this series.

Good morning Birdland,

There was no major baseball news on Friday, a planned day off for the playoff schedule. But that gets turned on its head today as all four Division Series will get underway.

The day starts at 1 p.m. with White Sox at Guardians on TBS. Braves at Dodgers follows on FOX at 4 p.m. Then it’s Yankees at Rays back on TBS at 6:30. And finally, Padres at Brewers will wrap up the day with first pitch at 8:30 on FOX.

This could be the last day of the year with more than two games on one day. Another day full of baseball is planned on Wednesday, but these are best-of-five series. The NL side of this schedule could be all wrapped up by the end of the day on Tuesday. So let’s enjoy this while we can.

Non-playoff teams have already turned their eyes towards the uncertain offseason ahead. One of the first major steps there will be arbitration decisions.

MLB Trade Rumors published their annual arbitration projections late on Friday. The Orioles have seven eligible players this year: Leody Taveras, Félix Bautista, Codi Heuer, Gunnar Henderson, Albert Suárez, Jordan Westburg, and Colton Cowser.

These all seem pretty straightforward. Henderson, Westburg, Cowser, and Bautista are going to be offered arbitration. Taveras, Heuer, and Suarez probably will not be.

Usually the Orioles try to avoid arbitration altogether and just get these guys signed to contracts for the upcoming season. That could even be true for the players that they do not want to offer arbitration. Albert Suárez feels like a good example there. Clearly, the organization likes having him around. They DFA’ed and re-signed him about 100 times this season. But maybe they don’t want to lock themselves into a $1.1 million salary for him. They could instead seek a standalone deal.

Arbitration time can also be an opportunity for bigger contract extensions too. Could this be the time that Henderson finally gets his massive deal? Unlikely, particularly coming off of this most recent season. Maybe someone like Cowser would be more open to it, but even that probably won’t happen.

It should be noted that this could all be impacted by the ongoing CBA negotiation. The current CBA expires on December 1 at 11:59 p.m. ET. The non-tender deadline typically falls in late November, so we should know who gets non-tendered before the CBA expires. But then the arbitration process tends to play out in January and February. So, there is plenty of uncertainty here.

Links

Early look at arbitration-eligible Orioles | Roch Kubatko
Roch digs a bit deeper into the Orioles-specific arbitration considerations, including a look back at last year’s decisions. Things have changed quite a bit in the last 365 days.

The final Top 100 Prospects list of the year has a new look | MLB.com
In times of big league disappointment, prospect list like this can be a security blanket for us Orioles fans. You will be pleased to know that there are now six baby Birds on Pipeline’s “Top 100” list. Three of them are in the 92-99 range, including newbie Enddy Azocar. Joseph Dzierwa was one of the biggest risers, he is up to 69 (nice) overall.

Orioles birthdays

Is it your birthday? Happy birthday!

• Adam Plutko turns 35 today. He worked out of the Orioles bullpen for part of the 2021 season, when he had a 6.71 ERA over 56.1 innings.
• Mike Belfiore is 38 years old. The lefty played in one career MLB game, and it came with the Orioles in 2013.
• Mike Johnson celebrates his 51st. The Canadian hurler began his big league career with a 14-game stint on the 1997 Orioles before he was dealt to the Expos midway through his debut season.

This day in O’s history

1970 – Mike Cuellar becomes the first pitcher to hit a home run in the LCS. His grand slam accounts for four of the seven runs the Orioles score in the fourth inning. Cuellar himself doesn’t pitch particularly well, and is yanked before the end of the fifth inning. The Orioles win anyway, beating the Twins 10-6 in Game 1 of the ALCS.

1971 – Dave McNally tosses seven innings, and the Orioles score four runs in the bottom of the seventh inning off of Athletics starter Vida Blue to win 5-3 in Game 1 of the ALCS

1986 – An Orioles loss to the Tigers assures them of their first last-place finish since the franchise moved from St. Louis in 1954.

2014 – An instant classic in Baltimore! The Orioles rough up the Tigers bullpen in the eighth inning of a 7-6 win in Game 2 of the ALDS. The four runs they score in the inning are capped off by a Delmon Young bases loaded double off of Joakim Soria.

2018 – The Orioles dismiss longtime manager Buck Showalter following a disastrous 47-win campaign.

No, the Phillies aren’t playing today in the NLDS in Los Angeles, but baseball rolls on. All four series begin today with Chicago going to Cleveland for the first game, Atlanta taking on Los Angeles after that, New York going to Tampa Bay and San Diego headed to Milwaukee for the nightcap. All four series are interesting in their own right, so let’s see what you’re thinking.

Who is taking each series?

Nevermind today’s game, who will be moving on to the NLCS and ALCS once it’s all said and done is the question we’re trying to answer.