State of the Yankees’ System: Relief Pitching

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 02: David Bednar #53 of the New York Yankees celebrates after beating the Boston Red Sox 4-0 in game three of the American League Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium on October 02, 2025 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Yankees had serious bullpen issues in 2025, which mostly stemmed from the fact that Devin Williams had far and away the worst year of his career after he was acquired from the Brewers for Caleb Durbin and Nestor Cortes in the offseason. Williams figured it out towards the end of the year and was a valuable piece in September and October, but he finished the season with a disastrous 4.79 ERA and his series of implosions in the first half cost the Yankees a number of wins which directly led to the team losing the division by the narrowest margin possible. Williams’ struggles reached the point where he lost save opportunities to Luke Weaver, who was more reliable than Williams but also regressed from the hero role he played during the previous postseason, and at times struggled terribly down the stretch.

Williams and Weaver are the only two players from last year’s ALDS roster that are no longer with the team; they both moved across town and signed with the Mets. This leaves David Bednar, who took over the closer role after being acquired from the Pirates at the trade deadline, as the default ninth-inning option for 2026. Bednar went 4-0 with 10 saves with the Yankees, recording a 2.19 ERA while striking out 36% of the hitters he faced. He’s an elite closer, and the Yankees should feel great about handing the ball to finish games.

The primary set-up men in the bullpen will be Camilo Doval and Fernando Cruz. Doval was another trade deadline acquisition last July, and was not impressive as a Yankee during the regular season with a 4.82 ERA in 18 innings. Control problems have been a thorn in his side for the last two years, but he features a wipeout slider and has been a reliable late-inning reliever for most of his career. His fastball has regressed as of late, which should be Matt Blake’s primary focus in getting him back to top form. Cruz spent his first full year with the Yankees in 2025 and struck out 36% of the hitters he faced on the back of his wipeout splitter. His 3.56 ERA was a major step forward from his shaky numbers with the Reds, and he should be one of the most prominent members of the Yankees’ bullpen moving forward.

Tim Hill will look to build on the 3.09 ERA he posted last year and retain his role as the funky left-handed specialist meant to induce as many ground balls as possible. He’s one of two southpaws in the bullpen, the other being Ryan Yarbrough who’s spent a lot of his career as a starting pitcher and made eight starts with the Yankees last season. Barring disastrous health problems, Yarbrough should spent 2026 in the bullpen and will be deployed primarily as a long reliever.

The rest of the bullpen will likely include Paul Blackburn and Cade Winquest. Blackburn came over from the Mets midway through the 2025 season and struggled as Yankee on the surface, though the difference between his actual and expected stats was staggering (he had a 5.28 ERA vs 2.92 xERA). He re-signed on a one-year, $2 million contract this offseason. Winquest was the Yankees’ first Rule 5 selection in years. He has yet to make his MLB debut, but his fastball can reach triple digits and he features a plus changeup and curveball. Both pitchers should be back-end options in the bullpen to start the year, with the chance to earn more opportunities as the season develops.

Jake Bird was another trade deadline acquisition as the Yankees acquired him from the Rockies for Roc Riggio and Ben Shields. He only pitched in three games with the big-league team and spent almost all his time in Triple-A, but he’s looking to get back on track this season and earn a spot in the Major League bullpen. At his best, Bird’s lethal slider/cutter combination makes him incredibly difficult to hit.

We’ve written extensively about Carlos Lagrange over the past year, most recently in our starting pitcher preview, but there’s a realistic chance he appears in the Yankees’ bullpen sometime this year and for that reason he’s worth mentioning here. Lagrange made huge gains last season and is already turning heads in camp. He was hitting 102 MPH with his fastball as of Monday afternoon, when he allowed a home run to Aaron Judge and then struck the three-time MVP out on three pitches. The Yankees should do everything they can to help Lagrange develop into a starting pitcher, but his ETA should be around sometime this summer, at which point the rotation could be healthy and thriving. Adding his electric arsenal into the bullpen down the stretch could be a huge boost to the pitching staff and a perfect jumping-off for Lagrange’s MLB career.

Aside from the names above, most of the other contenders for innings in the Bronx will be starting the season in Triple-A if not with the big-league club. Some of these names include Brent Headrick, Yerry de los Santos, Angel Chivilli, and Kervin Castro. Headrick is the most likely candidate to break camp with the team after he pitched 23 innings with the Yankees in 2025 and thrived with a 3.13 ERA and 32.6% strikeout rate. If the team decides to roll with three lefties in the bullpen, or if Hill or Yarbrough are forced to miss anytime this season, his is the first name they should call. Fans should also remember de los Santos fondly after he pitched 35 innings in the Bronx and recorded a 3.28 ERA. He struggled with walks, but was able to get the job done in 2025 and could get more opportunities this season.

Chivilli was acquired from the Rockies in exchange for minor-league slugger T.J. Rumfield this offseason. His numbers were catastrophic in Colorado last season, but he was pitching in a uniquely terrible environment. It’s difficult to even gauge how good a pitcher’s stuff is in Coors Field. The Yankees clearly saw enough that they liked to trade for Chivilli, but for now he should be viewed as a lottery ticket. Castro has struggled in his limited sample in the big-leagues, and after missing all of 2024 he pitched 47 innings in Triple-A last season with a 1.53 ERA.

The Yankees also signed Rafael Montero to a minor-league contract in early February. Montero was a huge part of the Astros’ World Series-champion bullpen in 2022, but he’s struggled mightily in the three years since. He’s another lottery ticket. Non-roster spring training invitations were also extended to Dylan Coleman, Carson Coleman, Bradley Hanner, Harrison Cohen, and Travis MacGregor. Dylan Coleman is the only one of these five with MLB experience, but like Montero, he hasn’t been a reliable bullpen option at this level since 2022. Of the other four, Cohen is the name to focus on. He posted a 1.76 ERA in 2025 between Double-A and Triple-A, with the red flag being a 14% walk rate at both levels.

The only other non-roster invitees on the roster are Michael Arias and Yovanny Cruz. Arias spent four years in the Cubs organization between 2021-24 before signing a minor-league contract with the Yankees for 2025. Arias pitched just 29.2 innings last season, but did so across four levels and ended the season with Double-A Somerset. Cruz took a two-year hiatus in 2020 & 2021 due in part to COVID-19 and Tommy John surgery, and never pitched more than 30 innings in a season again until logging 59.1 innings in Double-A last year as part of the Red Sox organization.

Fans had a more recent look at Hueston Morrill and Brady Kirtner during the Arizona Fall League, but both pitchers should be around the Double-A level for most of the year. Most pitchers who are already classified as relievers at this point in their careers that have a chance to contribute to the big-league team this season are at or near the top of the organization. The dozen or so pitchers atop the depth chart are the ones who should contribute in the Bronx for the foreseeable future.

Kansas City News: A sense of urgency for the new stadium

Quinton Lucas gave a State of the City address and noted his desire to keep the Royals in KCMO. John Sherman had some comments.

Word got back to Royals owner John Sherman. On Monday, Sherman addressed Lucas’ speech and offered his takeaway. “I appreciate him wanting to do that,” Sherman said. “And I appreciate that he is working very hard at that. I appreciate the work he is doing. You know, we’re not settled yet anywhere, but I would tell you, I don’t think we are that far away.”

Anne Rogers also covered Sherman’s comments.

“I’ve got a great sense of urgency on this. Time is not our friend. When the Chiefs made their announcement [to move to Kansas] in December, there was a whole new wave of enthusiasm on the Missouri side. And I don’t mean they weren’t working hard, but from the governor on down, there’s a lot of effort being put forth. We’re still evaluating Kansas, and we’re still evaluating multiple locations in Missouri, but I do appreciate the effort that’s being put forth, not only by the mayor but by the governor.”

Anne wrote about the vibes going into Spring Training as a player-led meeting took place.

“We’ve always kind of talked about it, but we’ve never really had our own kind of philosophy,” shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. said. “We just believe if everyone abides by that and comes together to do that, then I think we have the right team, players, staff, to go a long way.”

Instead of an explanation from the front office or staff, this year it was a group of players delivering the message – something they’ve wanted to do for a few years now, Witt said.

“The 2014-15 teams, they had an identity,” Witt said. “What’s our identity? What’s it going to be? We can do this because I think the team we have is special. Everyone believes it, and it’s going to go a long way.”

Jaylon Thompson talks to Bobby Witt Jr about playing in the upcoming World Baseball Classic against some of his own teammates.

“It’s always fun getting to face up against those guys,” Witt said. “You saw it whenever Kobe (Bryant) was doing it with Team USA — he (plowed through) a screen through Paul Gasol or whoever it was. When you are out there, you’re trying to win. That’s what my mantra is. They’re teammates now, and when that comes, we’re still teammates. “But for me, I always want to win.”

Preston Farr writes about the Royals’ signing of John Means to a two-year minor league deal.

After 2021, the health deteriorated for Means. He underwent Tommy John Surgery in April 2022. He worked his way back, reaching the big leagues briefly in 2023 before undergoing a second Tommy John Surgery in June 2024. That would spell the end of his time in Baltimore, signing a two-year contract with Cleveland before 2025. Means worked his way back, making seven minor league starts for the Guardians a season ago. Then, in December, while training, Means ruptured his Achilles just weeks after he saw his $6 million 2026 club option declined.

For the Royals, that means Means (well, that felt weird to type) will miss all of 2026 and hope to contribute in 2027. By that point, he will be in his age-33 season and two full seasons removed from any MLB action. It will be five seasons since he had any lengthy MLB time under his belt, making him a worthwhile dart throw, but hardly someone that fans should be locking in their memory bank as a key piece of the team’s 2027 plans.

Over at Royals Keep, Kevin O’Brien explores Royals catcher framing metrics.

Jacob Milham writes about the AL Central race.

AJ Preller will keep slinging trades as the guy in charge of the Padres for longer, as he signed an extension.

The Mets signed Mike Tauchman.

Walker Buehler goes to the Padres on a minor league deal.

Mike Trout wants to return to center field.

Twins pitcher Pablo López experienced soreness in his elbow and will get an MRI.

The Miami Dolphins released former Kansas City Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill on Monday.

As expected, the US women’s hockey team will face Canada for the gold medal.

Off Topic: My kid fell into the creek playing at the park yesterday. Small creek, so he’s fine, no issues, just got wet. Every kid’s gotta get wet in the creek at some point.

Your song of the day is Above & Beyond with On My Way To Heaven

Tuesday Rockpile: Brett Pill takes a swing at the Rockies hitting problems

CLEARWATER, FL - MARCH 05: Brett Pill (84) of the Tigers is congratulated in the dugout after hitting a home run during the spring training game between the Detroit Tigers and the Philadelphia Phillies on March 05, 2017 at Spectrum Field in Clearwater, Florida. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The 2025 Colorado Rockies led in a number of categories that most MLB teams would prefer not to lead.

A case in point would be their Chase%, where the Rockies had an MLB-worst 31.7%. (The league average was 28.2%.) Learning to be more disciplined and discerning at the plate is a central challenge for the rebuilding Rockies.

Good news, everyone! There’s a plan.

Over the weekend, Rockies hitting coach Brett Pill explained how the Rockies intend to take on this challenge in the coming season; it involves using data, communication, and individualized instruction.

“Honestly, there’s no cookie-cutter-type approach to hitting,” Pill said. “You kind of take what the hitters do well and build on it, and then over time, closing up some of those weaknesses and things we can improve on.”

The approach varies depending on the issue and the player.

“You do that through stuff in the weight room and stuff with their swing and stuff with data,” Pill said. “So use every resource possible to help them have a solution for every type of pitcher and situation and thing they might encounter in the big leagues. It’s not always the best, sexiest answer.”

But it all starts with clear communication.

“Obviously, you’ve got to build relationships with each guy and know what makes them tick, what sports they played when they were younger. And so there’s a lot that goes into it.”

What about one of the first dragons the Rockies must slay, those unsightly chase rates? Pill sees a specialized, multi-pronged approach.

“Some guys, it could be an approach and what they’re looking for. Maybe they’re trying to hit every pitch the guy throws,” Pill said. “It could be mechanical. It could be how they’re moving at that certain point in time, which maybe we do stuff in the weight room for it.”

In addition to physical factors, players may need to address less-tangible issues.

“Obviously,” Pill said, “there’s an emotional part of chase, too. Sometimes you’re worried [the pitcher] might throw fastball middle-in, so you’re cheating. There’s an emotional-psychological aspect, too. Some guys sometimes get a little safe and actually swing and miss more. So some guys, you are are going to encourage, ‘Hey, let’s kind of let it go a little bit.’ Actually, (we’ve seen) a few different cases of that with different guys already, so it’s kind of cool to see. You try to get in there in different ways with different people, and hopefully on the whole general scale, it improves all that.”

Everything comes back to knowing players and providing personalized instruction.

“It’s not like a there’s a thing I can say on a whole team-wide scale that’s going to help the chase,” he said. “It’s you try to get in there in different ways with different people.”

Then there’s the matter of helping Rockies hitters learn to adjust to the challenges of elevation.

“I think most teams that come in see it as an advantage, so definitely need to keep that thought process at home: The ball does fly. It might move a little bit different,” Pill said. “So maybe the way we train before games, or how we visualize pitches we’re going to get will be a little different. The challenge seems to be when you leave there and then how balls are moving more.”

And he’s been working with some seasoned Rockies veterans.

“There’s a lot of good people here who went through it, like Charlie Blackmon, Matt Holliday — a lot of people who I’ve have already been been talking to and listening to the players, too, about it.”

He added, “Obviously (assistant hitting coach) Jordan Pacheco went through it. So I’m leaning on them a lot, to be honest. I think we’re going use it to our advantage at home, and then we’ll figure it out on the road.”

Pill especially enjoys the teaching component of coaching.

“It’s just constant teaching,” he said. “Even today in some of the live at-bats, it’s like, ‘Hey, what were you thinking on this pitch?’ How can we get ahead of that and give a feedback loop to it, constantly teaching and learning from them.”

Like the best teachers, Pill sees himself as a lifelong learner.

“I don’t want to sit here and say I’m going to teach them everything,” Pill said. “I’m going to learn from them — maybe things I learned from the players, I apply to other guys in the future. So that’s why I love it so much. It’s just constantly helping guys get better because I remember being like an up-down guy and trying to break in. I had a lot of good coaches, too, but sometimes, you wish you just someone was always there with you every step of the way.”

He also shares manager Warren Schaeffer’s commitment to connection and communication.

“You might have the best info ever,” Pill said, “but if they don’t really feel that connection and know that you want the best for them and know that you’re at home thinking about ways to get them better every night, it doesn’t really hit.”

Then there’s the matter of working with a young team.

“They’re all physically gifted,” Pill said. “It’s honestly kind of crazy to come in here, and I feel like I’m looking up at everyone, and they’re all really strong and fast, and so there’s a lot of really good athletes.”

Prior to joining the Rockies, Pill was a hitting coach in the Los Angeles Dodgers minor-league system.

Third baseman (and long-time denizen of the Dodgers clubhouse) Kyle Karros is happy to see Pill on the Rockies coaching staff.

“I’ve done a lot of work with [Pill], our hitting coach,” Karros said. “He’s obviously one of those guys who came over from the Dodgers, and we’ve been seeing eye-to-eye a ton. I’m hitting the ball harder than I’ve ever hit it. Things are going really well offensively for me so far. So I really like what we’re doing.”

Some of what he learned from the Dodgers, Pill’s bringing with him to Colorado.

“They obviously do some really good things on the game-planning side, preparing for pitchers, obviously really good there. So [we’ll] use some of that stuff here, in addition to what they’ve already been doing.”

Then he added, “But the main thing over there, as far as with player development, was being extremely curious and creative and, again, not just going by the standard stuff. So that’s what I hope to bring here and inspire people to do, too, is just be obsessive with trying to get people better, use every avenue possible, and just never stop grinding.”

In moving the Rockies, Pill will continue working with former Dodger and current general manager Josh Byrnes, who, as Pills puts is, “is invested in hitting and knows his stuff.”

“When I heard he wanted to bring me along over here,” Pill said, “it was definitely hard to pass up because he’s great. He remembers everything he’s ever seen on a baseball field. I pick his brain all the time.”

Schaeffer is positive about what Pill brings to the Rockies.

“He’s fantastic,” Schaeffer said. “He has a really, really solid background. He has just been fantastic so far in there in terms of his preparation and what he’s working with the guys on.”

Plus, for Schaeffer, Pill’s outside perspective plus Pacheco’s inside knowledge give the Rockies a powerful combination.

“It’s important to have a balance. (Getting) outside ideas from from Pill is going to be a huge, huge factor, in terms of everything, actually — in terms of how you teach hitting, in terms of culture, the whole thing.”

He concluded, “It’s going to be a good combo.”


This week on the internet

That is all.


Which teams improved the most this winter? | MLB.com

Mike Petriello gets it (and what’s a reasonable expectation for a rebuilding team).

Offseason grades for all 30 MLB teams | The Ringer

Anthony Dabbundo, not so much.


Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

Chicago Cubs news and notes — Counsell, Davis, Miller, Ricketts

“If you look at baseball right now, there’s a lot of really nice tailwinds. Attendance is up, ratings are up. There’s a lot of things going in the right direction. We’ve got a lot of good young stars and exciting young players, and that’s all going well.

“There are some challenges. The regional sports network model has been under pressure for the last few years. Certain teams felt it the most this offseason, and it’ll take a while for it to work out, but it’s certainly a challenge for the entire league.” — Tom Ricketts.

Marquee had a series of player interviews — here’s the playlist. (FYI, I will remove these periodically.) Lots more video below.

Brett Taylor had some words about the Ben Cowles DFA in his bullets, where he speculated that the reassignment bid might be about Cowles/Owen Miller more than Steele. I dunno. Miller’s 29 and has had enough cups of coffee to equal just about two MLB seasons. and the data isn’t prepossessing. But maybe. I think they’re just doing it now to avoid waiver claims, which are unlikely with everyone at full-40 this early. Miller isn’t better than Cowles, or Triantos, or Ramirez, which I think is the depth order behind Shaw.

As always, developments. We practice patience.

*means autoplay on, (directions to remove for Firefox and Chrome). {$} means paywall. {$} means limited views. Italics are often used on this page as sarcasm font. The powers that be have enabled real sarcasm font in the comments.

Food For Thought:

Please be reminded that Cub Tracks and Bleed Cubbie Blue do not necessarily endorse the content of articles, podcasts, or videos that are linked to in this series. We will not wittingly publish A. I. – driven articles or clickbait, and insist on unimpeachable sources.

Who do Giants fans think is going to have a breakout season?

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 08: A detailed view of the cap and Rawlings baseball glove belonging to Heliot Ramos #17 of the San Francisco Giants is seen in the dugout prior to the game against the Washington Nationals at Oracle Park on August 08, 2025 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Good morning baseball fans!

As we approach Spring Training and the beginning of the season, we’re going to be doing some questions for y’all about your thoughts about the San Francisco Giants and baseball in general!

Today’s question: Who do you think is going to have a breakout year?

After this weekend’s BP, I think you can all guess my answer. I’m hoping to see Jung Hoo Lee have a breakout season. I think the potential is there, after what we saw glimpses of throughout last year. He’s already a fan-favorite and international star, with a ton of support from both the Bay Area and his home country of South Korea. But I would like to see him catch the attention of the baseball world more broadly and I think he can do it.

Who do you think is going to have a breakout season?

What makes a top 25 starting pitcher? Do Nolan McLean or Nick Pivetta have a case?

Every fantasy baseball season, we look for new ways to find value in drafts. Maybe there's a new metric that's been released or a new way to calculate playing time more accurately. Whatever it is, we're hunting for that edge. But what if the key to figuring out the future is just looking to the past?

For my presentation at First Pitch Arizona this year, I did a deep dive into last year's top 25 starting pitchers. Where were they generally drafted? Were there overlapping skillsets? Were they strikeout pitchers or command pitchers? How many innings did they need to throw? My goal was simply to find any common threads that would help us identify the markers that could lead us to this year's top 25 starting pitchers.

I've now taken that presentation and turned it into an article. Below, you'll find nine traits last year's top 25 all had in common, some trends for top 25 starting pitchers over the last few years, and breakdowns of a few fringe top 25 arms and my verdict on whether they'll end up crossing the threshold or not. So let's dive in.

⚾️ Coming soon: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.

Top 25 Starting Pitchers from 2025

  1. Tarik Skubal - Detroit Tigers
  2. Garrett Crochet - Boston Red Sox
  3. Paul Skenes - Pittsburgh Pirates
  4. Bryan Woo - Seattle Mariners
  5. Hunter Brown - Houston Astros
  6. Cristopher Sanchez - Philadelphia Phillies
  7. Freddy Peralta - Milwaukee Brewers (at the time)
  8. Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Los Angeles Dodgers
  9. Nathan Eovaldi - Texas Rangers
  10. Carlos Rodon - New York Yankees
  11. Max Fried - New York Yankees
  12. Jacob deGrom - Texas Rangers
  13. Nick Pivetta - San Diego Padres
  14. Zack Wheeler - Philadelphia Phillies
  15. Trevor Rogers - Baltimore Orioles
  16. Joe Ryan - Minnesota Twins
  17. Matthew Boyd - Chicago Cubs
  18. Drew Rasmussen - Tampa Bay Rays
  19. Logan Webb - San Francisco Giants
  20. Chris Sale - Atlanta Braves
  21. Hunter Greene - Cincinnati Reds
  22. Kevin Gausman - Toronto Blue Jays
  23. Andrew Abbott - Cincinnati Reds
  24. Cade Horton - Chicago Cubs
  25. Merrill Kelly - Diamondbacks/Rangers (at the time)

Obviously, as is the case every year, injuries played a big role in determining the top 25 starting pitchers. A large number of pitchers who were ranked inside the top 25 heading into the season missed large chunks of time with injury: Logan Gilbert, Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Cole Ragans, Michael King, Pablo Lopez, Spencer Schwellenbach, Bryce Miller, Aaron Nola, Tyler Glasnow, Shane McClanahan, and Gerrit Cole.

Where did we draft the top 25 starting pitchers?

While we often think that we need to spend an early-round draft pick in order to land a fantasy ace, the average ADP of the top 25 starting pitchers was 182.3 (taken from NFBC's Online Championship data, 12-team leagues). Only six of the top 25 starting pitchers were drafted inside the top 50 picks, and another six were drafted between picks 51 and 100. Perhaps more surprisingly, there were seven pitchers who finished inside the top 25 who were drafted outside the top 200 picks. While this has been a trend in recent years, and I've written an article about it in past seasons, the number of late-round pitchers who produced top 25 value was larger than ever last season.

Some of that was obviously due to the injuries we mentioned above, so you don't need to modify your draft strategy to only select starters outside of the top 200 picks, but it does continue to show that plenty of starting pitching value can be found later in the draft. Of those pitchers, many of them (Trevor Rogers, Matthew Boyd, Dre Rasmussen, Cade Horton) were drafted late because there were concerns about their projected volume. Perhaps banking on talent over roles with those late-round picks continues to be the way to go.

What traits did the top 25 starting pitchers have in common?

Trait 1: Innings pitched

Amongst the top 25 starting pitchers, the average innings pitched was 170. What's more, 14 of the top 25 had at least 175 innings pitched, and only five of them pitched 130 innings or fewer (Eovaldi, Rogers, Sale, Greene, Horton). If we also look at their track record, 17 of the top 25 starting pitchers from last year have had only one or no seasons with under 120 innings as a starting pitcher, and only five of them have more than two seasons in their careers with under 120 innings (Eovaldi, Rodon, deGrom, Boyd, Sale).

LESSON LEARNED: When identifying a potential top 25 starting pitcher, we want to target pitchers with at least a somewhat reliable track record of durability. It seems like being able to pitch consistently over 120 innings gives you a good chance to put together a season with enough innings to crack the top 25.

Trait 2a: Strikeout upside

Amongst the top 25 starting pitchers, the average total strikeouts was 181. Nine of them had at least 200 strikeouts. While some of that is obviously tied to the durability topic we mentioned above, the average swinging strike rate (SwStr%) for the top 25 SP was 13.7%. That's significantly better than the league average for starting pitchers, which was 11%. In fact, only Drew Rasmussen had a SwStr% that was below the league average, and only five of the top 25 starting pitchers had a SwStr% under 12% (Kelly, Boyd, Pivetta, Webb, Rasmussen). What's more, 11 of the top 25 starting pitchers had a SwStr% of 14% or better.

LESSON LEARNED: It’s hard to be a top 25 SP with a below-average SwStr%. There isn't an exact mark we should strive for because the league average changes each season, but we can make 12% our cut-off.

Trait 2b: Strikeout upside fueled by secondary pitches

This is kind of a subset of the previous, so we'll make them part of the same overall trait. While general strikeout upside is important, I believe it's equally important that we identify pitchers who have an elite secondary pitch. This gives us an extra layer of security rather than relying on pitchers who get by with just a dominant fastball. Last season, the average SwStr% for the top 25 starting pitchers on their most-used secondary pitch was 19.3%. Nine of those top 25 pitchers had a primary secondary pitch with at least a 20% SwStr%, and 14 of them had one with at least a 19% mark. That means 56% of all of the top 25 starting pitchers in fantasy baseball last year had a most-used secondary offering with at least a 19% SwStr%. That sounds like a pretty important criterion we should be looking for.

On the other end of the spectrum, only four of those top 25 starting pitchers didn’t have a single secondary pitch with at least a 15% SwStr% (Paul Skenes, Joe Ryan, Drew Rasmussen, Andrew Abbott). Skenes obviously throws multiple fastballs that can miss bats, and Joe Ryan famously has a dominant fastball, but the other two pitchers were just on the fringe of the top 25 and probably would not have made it in without multiple injuries.

LESSON LEARNED: A top 25 starting pitcher likely needs a dominant swing-and-miss pitch for strikeouts that is not some form of a fastball. That pitch also needs to be one that they use over 10% of the time.

Trait 3: Hit Suppression

People will try to tell you that pitchers are not responsible for hit suppression, but I promise you that those people didn't pitch or catch at a level where pitch mix and pitch sequencing truly matter. Pitchers absolutely have a hand in suppressing hits based on mixing and matching pitches and locations to keep hitters off the barrel. Good pitchers can limit hits with overpowering stuff or with plus command.

Last year, the average hits per nine innings allowed among the top 25 starting pitchers was 6.9, which was significantly better than the league average for starting pitchers, which was 8.5. Thirteen of the top 25 starting pitchers had a H/9 below 7.0, and only six of them had a H/9 of 7.5 or higher. In fact, only one top 25 starting pitcher had a below-average H/9. It was Logan Webb, who posted a 9.1 and was a big reason why his WHIP didn't help you as much as you wanted it to last season.

LESSON LEARNED: Hits per nine might be a stat that we overlook when identifying top starting pitchers

Trait 4: Relative Command

I say "relative command" rather than command because pitchers with high strikeout totals often throw a lot of pitches outside the strike zone to induce chases and whiffs. We're OK with that if we're getting strikeouts, so we don't just want command as much as we want command that is above-average when also factoring in the amount of strikeout upside we get with it. A good stat for relative command is K-BB% because it factors in walk rate, but only does so as it relates to how many batters you strike out. To me, that's more important than just looking at zone rates or walk rates.

Last season, the average K-BB% among the top 25 starting pitchers was 20.4%. Another stat in which they were, unsurprisingly, well above the league average for starting pitchers, which was 14%. Five of the top 25 had a K-BB% higher than 25% and 14 of them had a K-BB% higher than 20%. That's, again, 56% of the top 25 starting pitchers who were at least 6% above league average in K-BB%. Only five of those top 25 starting pitchers had a K-BB% under 16.5%, which is still above league average (Horton, Boyd, Rasmussen, Abbott, Kelly), and only one of them had a below-average K-BB% (Merrill Kelly at 13.4%).

If you look at walk rate alone, only three of the top 25 starting pitchers finished in the top 10 in walk rate, and only four of the top 25 finished in the top 15. So walk rate didn't correlate well to overall fantasy baseball success.

LESSON LEARNED: Command relative to strikeout upside is more important than just good command. Searching for pitchers with the highest K-BB% is one of the best ways to find potential top-performing starting pitchers.

Trait 5: Impactful fastball

I've long been a believer that it's hard for a pitcher to be above-average without a good fastball to fall back on. Last year's top 25 starting pitchers seem to validate that. If we look at the raw stuff on the fastball, the average four-seam fastball velocity among the top 25 starting pitchers last year was 95.1 mph. That was 1.0 mph faster than the league average for starting pitchers. Ten of the top 25 averaged 95.5 mph or faster on their four-seam fastball, and only seven of them had below-average four-seam velocity (Pivetta, Rogers, Boyd, Ryan, Webb, Abbott, and Kelly). All of those pitchers succeeded because they either had plus extension/vertical movement, at least five pitches in their arsenal, or an elite left-handed change-up to pair with their fastball.

If we go beyond pure stuff, the top 25 starting pitchers, on average, threw their primary fastball (four-seam or sinker) 41% of the time. Ten of them threw it at least 45% of the time, which shows us that a good portion of the top 25 starting pitchers rely heavily on their fastball for success. Going beyond that, ten of them also had three variations of fastball, and only five of them throw just one fastball type (Sanchez, Peralta, deGrom, Greene, Gausman). Of course, deGrom and Greene have showcased historically good fastballs, and Gausman is a primary splitter pitcher, so it makes sense that those guys didn't use multiple fastball variations; although, it would be nice if Gausman could learn one.

LESSON LEARNED: If a pitcher doesn’t have a reliable, high-velocity fastball, it’s hard to be in the top 25. A deep pitch mix or multiple fastball variations will help to offset the lack of an elite fastball, and lefties without high velocity can often get by if they have an elite changeup or multiple fastball variations.

Trait 6: Fastball command

In addition to having a high-velocity fastball, a top 25 starting pitcher can usually command their fastball well. The average four-seam fastball zone rate among the top 25 starting pitchers last year was 56.1%, which is above the league average for starters at 53%. It's important to note that this is above the league but not exceptionally so, which goes back to our earlier point that command is important relative to strikeout upside, but the top 25 starting pitchers will not likely be the pitchers with the best pinpoint command. However, only four starting pitchers last year had a four-seam fastball zone rate under 50% (Crochet, Pivetta, Peralta, Brown), and seven of them had a four-seam fastball zone rate of 60% or better.

LESSON LEARNED: Not only does fastball velocity count, but fastball command is important too. If a pitcher gets behind regularly, it’s harder for them to get strikeouts and prevent hits. We don't need to look for ELITE fastball command, but it should at least be better than average.

Trait 7: Deep pitch mix

When Eno Sarris first debuted Stuff+, he said there was a point where pitchers with deep pitch mixes often outperformed their Stuff+ grades. For him, that was when a pitcher had six pitches that they threw regularly. We have now seen a trend in the league where pitchers are starting to add multiple fastball variations to their arsenal to diversify their pitch mix. All of this, plus my experience as a catcher calling pitches, tells me that a pitcher with more pitches in their arsenal is often set up for more success.

Last season, on average, the top 25 starting pitchers featured a pitch mix of 5.04 pitches they used over 10% of the time. Nine of them regularly throw at least six pitches, and only three of them throw only three pitches (Sanchez, Greene, and Gausman). Gausman is primarily a splitter pitcher, and those pitchers often don't have deep pitch mixes, but they are also volatile because they depend so much on the splitter. Greene is also a bit of a rare case because his fastball and slider are so good that he can be dominant without a deep pitch mix, like pre-injury Spencer Strider.

LESSON LEARNED: Having a deeper pitch mix gives a starting pitcher more wiggle room, which often leads to more success. Having a deep pitch mix plus velocity and fastball command is a top 25 recipe.

Trait 8: High pitch mix grade

Even though "stuff" grades are not an exact science, we accept the basic premise that pitchers with elite raw stuff put themselves in an advantageous position. Yes, they will also need some semblance of command, but their elite stuff gives them a higher floor to work from than pitchers with lesser stuff. For me, when I use stuff grades, I like to usePitcher List's PLV metric because location is factored into the grade, whereas Stuff+ needs a separate Location+ metric to evaluate the command of a specific pitch.

The average PLV grade for the top 25 starting pitchers last year was 5.12, while the MLB average for starting pitchers was 5.01. Among qualified starters, eight of the top 10 PLV grades among starting pitchers were pitchers who finished in the top 25 overall. You can expand that, as 12 of the top 15 PLV grades belonged to pitchers who finished in the top 25 in fantasy baseball. Additionally, 12 of the top 25 starting pitchers had a PLV grade of at least 5.15, and only five of them finished with a below-average PLV grade (Brown, Boyd, Horton, Rogers, and Rodon). We should note that models tend not to like changeups, and those last four pitchers had strong changeups in 2025, so they may have been unfairly penalized.

LESSON LEARNED: Relying on pure stuff is great, but being able to properly execute a pitch mix is likely more valuable, so using a stuff metric that takes location into account may be more useful for projecting fantasy success. Overall PLV grades may be a good indicator of fantasy baseball success.

Trait 9: Pitch mix to attack both right-handed hitters and left-handed hitters

In addition to having pitches that grade out well individually, I believe a starting pitcher must have a clear attack plan to both right-handed hitters and left-handed hitters. That means that, for a starting pitcher to have fantasy success, they must have a pitch they can throw for strikes to all hitters and a whiff pitch they can use for all hitters, and, preferably, a deeper arsenal around that to keep hitters off rhythm. So when we say a pitcher is a four-pitch pitcher, does that mean they have four pitches in total, but only throw two of them to lefties? Or does it mean they use four pitches to both righties and lefties? That's important to distinguish how deep their pitch mix truly is.

On average, last season, the top 25 starters had 3.6 distinct pitches for righties and 3.48 for lefties. Eleven of the top 25 starters had AT LEAST four distinct pitches for hitters of each handedness, and every single top 25 starting pitcher throws at least three pitches to EITHER righties or lefties at least 10% of the time. What's more, only four of the top 25 starters didn’t haveat least three distinct pitches for BOTH lefties and righties (deGrom, Pivetta, Greene, and Gausman). We already spoke earlier about how deGrom and Greene are rare cases because of their elite raw stuff, and that Gausman is an especially volatile starter because of his over-reliance on his splitter.

LESSON LEARNED: If a pitcher doesn’t have multiple, proven ways to attack both righties and lefties, it’s hard to finish in the top 25.

New York Mets v. Philadelphia Phillies
Corbin Carroll, Francisco Lindor, Spencer Schwellenbach, and Jackson Holliday are among the injuries to watch in our latest update.

Top 25 starting pitcher trends over the years

 

2025

2024

2023

2022

SwStr%

13.7

12.9

12.4

12.3

K-BB%

20.4

18.9

19.6

20.0

CSW

29.9

28.6

28.6

29.2

FF Velo

95.1 mph

94.4 mph

94.8 mph

94.4 mph

Location+

104.6

104.2

103.5

101.6

IP

169.7

182.5

186.2

184.2

As you can see from this simple chart, the innings threshold to finish inside the top 25 starting pitchers has been decreasing over the years. As strikeouts have increased and pitchers' workloads have decreased, it is no longer necessary to pitch 180+ innings to be a top 25 starting pitcher. Of course, it certainly helps.

We're also seeing that pitchers who finish in the top 25 starting pitchers on the season have an increasingly strong swinging strike rate (SwStr%) and CSW. This means that swing-and-miss stuff is more connected to top 25 finishes than it was a few years ago, which shouldn't be a surprising revelation.

Red flags to avoid when identifying potential top 25 starting pitchers

So, we've talked about a few good signs for starting pitchers, but what are some red flags that we want to avoid if we're projecting a pitcher to finish inside the top 25 overall?

  • A low SwStr% is bad, but it can be made up for with a deep pitch mix since all of the top 25 starting pitchers with a sub 12% SwStr% throw at least five pitches
  • Having low fastball velocity is bad, but it can be managed with plus command.
  • Having a low SwStr% on a primary secondary pitch is hard to cover for and is a major red flag.
  • Low innings totals are a red flag, but if you have high strikeout upside, then 120-130 innings can be the floor

So, who are some pitchers that we might want to avoid ranking in the top 25 this upcoming season based on those red flags?

  • Tyler Glasnow, Dodgers: He has just one season over 120 innings in his career.
  • Blake Snell, Dodgers: He has only two seasons over 130 innings in his career, and he may be delayed to start the season.
  • Dylan Cease, Blue Jays: His four-seam fastball command was 8th percentile last year. It's hard to be a consistent starter if you can't command your fastball.
  • Freddy Peralta, Mets: His four-seam fastball command was 18th percentile last year, but he has succeeded at that rate before. He may be an exception.
  • Spencer Strider, Braves: His four-seam fastball regressed immensely post-surgery in both velocity and command.

Top 25 starting pitcher locks for 2026

Based on everything we discussed above, here are the pitchers I feel confident about sliding into the top 25 in my rankings.

  1. Tarik Skubal
  2. Garrett Crochet
  3. Paul Skenes
  4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
  5. Max Fried
  6. Jacob deGrom
  7. Hunter Greene
  8. Hunter Brown
  9. Cristopher Sanchez
  10. Freddy Peralta
  11. Bryan Woo
  12. Joe Ryan
  13. Chris Sale
  14. Logan Webb
  15. George Kirby
  16. Shohei Ohtani
  17. Cole Ragans
  18. Logan Gilbert
  19. Kyle Bradish

I would feel similarly good about having Pablo Lopez in here, but he ended last year on the IL, so I need to see him throw a few times in spring training before I go ahead and put him in there. Nathan Eovaldi is another potential candidate, but we know that innings totals and injuries have always been risks for him. So, with all that said, who are the other starting pitchers I feel good about ending the season in the top 25?

⚾️ Coming soon: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.

Potential top 25 starting pitchers for 2026 fantasy baseball

Eury Perez - Miami Marlins

Few pitchers in this section of the article have the upside that Perez does. The average swinging strike rate (SwStr%) for the top 25 starting pitchers last year was 13.7%, and Perez posted a 14.8% rate. He did have a 19% strikeout minus walk rate (K-BB%), which was below the 20.4% mark that was the average for the top 25 last year. However, last year was Perez's first year coming off Tommy John surgery, so some rust with command was expected. He has a five-pitch mix that features a sweeper with a 22.2% SwStr% to righties and a harder slider with 21% swinging strike rate to lefties. We know his velocity is great, and his four-seam fastball also had a 59% zone rate, which was well above league average. My only concern with Perez is innings, but I feel like he could become a top 25 starter even if he only throws 150 innings this season.

VERDICT: Locked into my top 25.

Nick Pivetta - San Diego Padres

Nick Pivetta finished inside the top 25 last year after pitching to a 2.87 ERA. However, that was his first season ever with an ERA under 4.00, so we have to wonder how sustainable that was. Pivetta posted just a 10.5% SwStr% and has a career 10.7% mark, so when you pair that with a four-seam fastball with below-average velocity and command, it's not an ideal combination, even though the four-seamer does get whiffs up in the zone. He also posted a 19% K-BB%, which is fine but below the average for top 25 starting pitchers last season. Pivetta does throw a cutter and uses it primarily to righties as an early-strike pitch. He has a sweeper that posted a 20% SwStr% to righties, which we like, but has no swing-and-miss pitch for lefties. In fact, he's really just a two-pitch pitcher to lefties, throwing his four-seamer 52% of the time and a curve 38% of the time. That curve had just a 6.4% SwStr% to lefties. All of that worries me. I know he has a pitch mix that grades out well by PLV, but it's a far narrower mix than we believe, and I think much of his success can just be attributed to his HR/FB rate dropping to 9.7% after being over 15% for his career.

VERDICT: I don't think there is enough strikeout upside or a deep enough pitch mix to left-handed hitters to warrant a spot in the top 25 for Pivetta, but he's close.

Drew Rasmussen - Tampa Bay Rays

Drew Rasmussen also finished inside the top 25 last year, but he was one of the names that kept coming up the most when I looked at pitchers who were below the average of the group. He had just a 10.8% SwStr% and a 15.4% K-BB%. He's essentially just a three-pitch pitcher, with 90% of his pitch mix coming from his four-seamer, cutter, and sinker. That's 90% of his arsenal being three different variations of a fastball. He also has never pitched more than 150 innings in a season. Yet, there are also some things to like. His fastball has above-average velocity, league-average command, and a flat attack angle that allows it to miss bats. His cutter eats up lefties and also posts a 16.5% SwStr% against them, and his sinker just gets beat into the ground by righties. His cutter does act like a hard slider and had an 11.3% SwStr% against righties too, but his sweeper does not get many whiffs. That means he has the same whiff pitch to both righties and lefties and relies a lot on his fastball to miss bats. That will always make it hard for him to have the strikeout numbers to earn a spot in the top 25, especially given his innings concerns.

VERDICT: Rasmussen has a safe floor given his 2.76 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his 389.2 career innings as a starter. I think he has proven that he can induce weak contact, but his strikeout rate is likely capped around 22%, which means that it's hard to envision his overall strikeout totals being much higher than 130 with his innings concerns. That all still makes him a fringe top 25 arm, however.

Nolan McLean - New York Mets

Many people have McLean ranked the highest of the young starting pitchers (Chase Burns, Cam Schlittler, etc.), but I may throw some cold water on that. Yes, McLean had a 21.3% K-BB% last year and has a 95 mph sinker that he can pound the zone with, which suggests both strikeout upside and hit suppression. However, I'm not so sure the strikeout upside is as good as everybody is anticipating. For starters, his 12% SwStr% last year was almost 2% below the average for the top 25 starting pitchers. His primary secondary pitch to righties is his sweeper, which he threw 32% of the time to righties; however, that pitch had just a 5.8% swinging-strike rate against right-handed hitters. That's, um, not good. His curve did register a 24.3% swinging-strike rate against righties, but he throws it to them just 11% of the time, and it had just a league-average putaway rate, which measures how often a two-strike pitch ends in a strikeout. I do like that he has six pitches and three fastball variations, but his pitch mix, according to PLV, also grades out below the league average for starting pitchers.

VERDICT: I'm concerned by the lack of true out pitch against righties. Last year, McLean had just a 10.6% SwStr% to righties, and the sweeper does not look like a pitch that's designed to miss bats. I like his general approach, but those execution and strikeout concerns have me more tepid on him than some of the other analysts out there, and I would not put him near my top 25.

Framber Valdez - Detroit Tigers

For many people, Framber Valdez is a top 25 lock. I've never been as big a fan, and there are a few reasons for it. For starters, I don't believe there's as much strikeout upside with Valdez. Last season, he had a SwStr% of 12.6, but the average SwStr% for the top 25 SP was 13.7%. He also had a K-BB% of 14.8% in 2025, where the average K-BB% among the top 25 starting pitchers was 20.4%. That's a pretty stark difference. He does have a sinker that he commands well in the zone, a pitch mix that grades out well by PLV, and a history of solid hit suppression, which are all things we like. However, he has only one fastball variation and is essentially just a two-pitch pitcher against lefties. His main secondary pitch to righties and lefties is the same one, his curve, which had a 20.8% SwStr% to right-handed hitters and a 18.4% SwStr% to left-handed hitters.

VERDICT: Valdez's muted strikeout upside and his more limited pitch mix cause him to rely so heavily on his curveball for success. That makes him a fringe top 25 arm who is often ranked too high.

Nick Lodolo - Cincinnati Reds

I've always been a fan of Lodolo's, but I can't truly put my finger on why. Maybe it's the gangly left-handed delivery or the strikeout potential, but I enjoy watching him pitch, so it was nice to see a bit of a breakout season for him last year. His 13.8% SwStr% fits right in line with a typical top 25 starting pitcher, and he has dynamic weapons in a curveball that registered a 19.4% SwStr% to lefties and 20.7% SwStr% to righties and a changeup that also had a 15.5% SwStr% to righties. Lodolo has a four-pitch mix that grades out well according to PLV and has also led to tremendous hit suppression over the last two seasons, with a 7.9 H/9 that's well below the 8.5 H/9 league average for starting pitchers in 2025. His fastball command is slightly below average, which led to a 19.4% K-BB% that's a touch below the mark we want to see from a top 25 arm, and paired with his brutal home park, makes him a little bit more of a risk than some of the other names in this section.

VERDICT: Lodolo's command and home park work against him, but he has plus secondaries and the strikeout upside required to consider him a fringe top 25 arm who should be ranked higher in most places.

Ryan Pepiot - Tampa Bay Rays

Pepiot hit a career high of 167.2 innings last year in his second year with the Rays. That came with a 13% SwStr% and 15.6% K-BB%, which were both actually below the threshold for top 25 starting pitchers that we discussed above. However, I think there is more swing and miss in his arsenal. His four-seam fastball has good velocity at 95.2 mph with strong extension and a flat attack angle, so he gets lots of swings and misses up in the zone. It had both an above-average swinging strike rate and putaway rate in 2025. He has a 12.5% SwStr% against right-handed hitters with both his slider and cutter, which is slightly below where we'd like, but, again, his four-seamer is a true whiff pitch for righties. His changeup had a near 14% SwStr% to lefties, and the cutter is a nice strike pitch to lefties, so I like the depth of his overall pitch and his ability to get whiffs for both righties and lefties.

His entire arsenal grades out well on PLV, and his overall hits per nine innings allowed is good, with a 7.2 mark last year and a 6.9 career mark. The issue is that home runs have been an issue for him in the past, with a 1.4 HR/9 and nearly 14% HR/FB last year. However, we have to keep in mind that he was pitching in a minor league ballpark last year. In his first season at Tropicana Field, his HR/FB was just 11%, and his HR/9 was 1.18. The move back to Tropicana Field will help him in 2026, and we could see his ERA fall back to the 3.50 range with a potential uptick in strikeouts.

VERDICT: The strikeout totals haven't been where we'd like for Pepiot in the past, but everything under the hood with his arsenal seems to suggest that he has the mix and ability to get there. He's also moving back to a more favorable home park this season, so I think a top 25 season could be in the making.

Jacob Misiorowski - Milwaukee Brewers

Misiorowski is a popular breakout candidate after posting a 32% strikeout rate in 66 innings in his MLB debut last year. It's not hard to see the strikeout potential here. Misiorowski has a 99 mph four-seam fastball and posted a 14.8% SwStr% and 21% K-BB% last year, both of which are above the average mark we saw for the top 25 starting pitchers in 2025. His four-pitch mix graded out really well, according to PLV, and he allowed just 7.0 hits per nine innings last year, which was well above the 8.5 H/9 mark of the league average starting pitchers last season. Misiorowski's curve posted a 20.2% SwStr% to lefties, but his slider had a below-average 11.2% SwStr% to righties. His four-seamer had just a 10.5% SwStr% to righties, but he uses it over 33% of the time in two-strike counts, and it posted an above-average putaway rate, so there isn't much concern about his strikeout upside. He does have league-average four-seam command and just one fastball variation, which are minor concerns heading into 2026.

VERDICT: It would be nice if Misiorowski had shown a legit whiff pitch for righties, but the slider performed fine, and we know the four-seamer can miss bats. My larger issues are that he still has some command risk, which will always make his WHIP a bit of a risk. When you pair that with the fact that his "breakout" in 2025 also came with a 4.24 ERA, I'm just not sure his ratios will push him into the top 25 overall.

Edward Cabrera - Chicago Cubs

Yes, I'm higher on Edward Cabrera than most, but there are a few key reasons for that. For starters, Cabrera made a switch from using his four-seam fastball as his primary fastball to using a sinker. That sinker had a 61.3% zone rate, which is well above average among starting pitchers. That allows Cabrera to get ahead in the count, which he wasn't able to do with his four-seamer, and then set up a slider that has a 19.3% SwStr% to righties and a curve that had a 19.9% SwStr% against lefties. That pair of secondaries has helped him post a 13.2% SwStr%, which is better than what the average top 25 starting pitchers did last year. The move to a sinker also helped his hit suppression, and his 7.3 H/9 for his career is well above-average. However, he still has some overall command concerns, which has led to a 17.5% K-BB% last year that's below what you'd like to see from a top 25 starting pitcher.

VERDICT: Cabrera now has a true five-pitch mix with a fastball that he can command and two plus secondaries. That's a great foundation for a top 25 starting pitcher. However, he has command and injury concerns that keep him just outside the top 25 for me.

Chase Burns - Cincinnati Reds

Few young pitchers are getting as much hype as Chase Burns, and I get it; we all love strikeouts. Burns had four straight games with 10 strikeouts last season and posted a 16.7% SwStr% and 27.1% K-BB% in his MLB innings last year. He did that on the back of a 98.7 mph four-seam fastball and a wipeout slider that posted a 19.2% SwStr% to right-handed hitters and a 29.4% SwStr% to left-handed hitters. Generally speaking, I don't love it when a pitcher has the same swing-and-miss pitch to hitters from both sides of the plate; however, Burns also showed off a changeup that had 16.7% SwStr% to lefties but was just used 10% of the time to those lefties. I'd like to see him use that pitch a little more because he's really just a two-pitch pitcher. Considering his four-seam fastball also gets hit more than you'd like to see, that doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room for Burns to find success if one of his primary avenues isn't working.

VERDICT: Burns' limited pitch mix and hard contact rates on his four-seam fastball keep him out of the top 25 for me. That being said, the changeup is lingering there as a solid third pitch, which could really propel him up the rankings, so I'm coming around.

Which Guardians Players will go “over” their Projected Home Runs?

CLEVELAND, OHIO - OCTOBER 01: Kyle Manzardo #9 of the Cleveland Guardians bats during the first inning in Game Two of the American League Wildcard Series against the Detroit Tigers at Progressive Field on October 01, 2025 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images

Projections are out, and the Guardians’ hitters all have home run numbers to beat. Can they do it?

Look at this list of projected home runs for Guardians hitters and tell us which player you believe will hit the over (from ZiPS, which includes projected playing time, to be clear):

Jose Ramirez – 26

Kyle Manzardo – 22

Johnathan Rodriguez – 17

Bo Naylor – 16

CJ Kayfus – 13

Gabriel Arias – 13

Juan Brito – 12

Nolan Jones – 11

Daniel Schneemann – 11

Angel Martinez – 11

George Valera – 11

Steven Kwan – 10

Travis Bazzana – 10

Brayan Rocchio – 10

David Fry – 10

Chase DeLauter – 6

Stuart Fairchild – 6

Let us know which players you believe in for some extra pop in the comments below?

Should the Red Sox DFA Masataka Yoshida?

FORT MYERS, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 10: Masataka Yoshida #7 of the Boston Red Sox arrives ahead of a team workout at JetBlue Park at Fenway South on February 10, 2026 in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Masataka Yoshida is unquestionably a productive major league hitter, having posted a career OPS+ of 109. But with $36.5 million still owed to him over the next two years and no place on the Red Sox except as a low-power DH/pinch-hitter, he arguably hurts the roster more than he helps it.

The Red Sox cannot option Yoshida to the minor leagues without his consent. As for a trade, we have recently seen reports that “there has been tangible trade interest in Yoshida throughout the winter, with teams recognizing his offensive upside,” but the Red Sox obviously have not pulled the trigger. That potentially leaves designating him for assignment as the only option for getting him off the roster. But he is unlikely to be claimed on waivers given his contract, and such a move would potentially be disastrous for the team’s future efforts to sign overseas stars.

What do yo think the Sox should do with Yoshida? Is it time to view him as a sunk cost and move on, or is there still a place for him on this team?

Should the Mets extend Freddy Peralta ahead of Opening Day?

Feb 11, 2026; Port St. Lucie, FL, USA; New York Mets pitcher Freddy Peralta (51) warms-up during spring practice. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-Imagn Images | Jim Rassol-Imagn Images


This post is part of a series of daily questions that we’ll ask the community here at Amazin’ Avenue throughout the month of February. We hope you find the questions engaging and that our prompts can spark some fun conversations in the comments. We’ll see you there and plan to have staff chiming in, too.

Should the Mets extend Freddy Peralta ahead of Opening Day?

Which prospects are you most looking forward to seeing this Spring?

CLEARWATER, FL - MARCH 06: Tampa Bay Rays Infielder Xavier Isaac (91) at bat during the spring training game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Philadelphia Phillies on March 06, 2025 at BayCare Ballpark in Clearwater, Florida. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

DRaysBay works best as a place for community and conversation. Accordingly, in the lead up to the new season, we are posting “Daily Questions” in the month of February. I look forward to seeing you in the comment section!


Spring Training is always an exciting opportunity to see players you might never otherwise see during a season, and this is an interesting time in the Rays system after a dramatic overhaul of the team’s prospects — which might be obvious if you’ve been following our annual Community Prospect voting.

The playing I’m personally most looking forward to seeing on the field is 1B Xavier Isaac, a former first round pick who had his 2025 season cut short by brain surgery. Cleared for a return to baseball, the Rays have invited the 22-year old to his first major league camp this year.

How about you?

Brew Crew Ball Daily Question: Which Brewer do you defend no matter what the numbers say?

Oct 16, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Milwaukee Brewers left fielder Christian Yelich (22) is introduced for game three of the NLCS during the 2025 MLB playoffs against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

We’re back with another daily question, and today’s question is: Which Brewer do you defend no matter what the numbers say?

For me, it’s Rickie Weeks. The No. 2 overall pick in 2003, Weeks never quite lived up to the hype, at least from a numbers perspective. Across 11 seasons in Milwaukee, he accumulated just 12.5 bWAR (roughly 1.1 per season) and picked up one All-Star selection, but he’s one of those guys where I don’t really care what the numbers look like — he’ll always be one of my favorite Brewers.

A player on the current roster? Christian Yelich. Yes, I agree he’s overpaid for what he provides on the field, but I think his veteran presence on a team filled with 20-somethings is underrated. Between him and Brandon Woodruff (another guy I’ll defend to anyone), the Brewers have had a consistent veteran presence over the last few years as they make playoff run after playoff run.

Who do you defend no matter what?

Weigh in in the comments, and join us throughout the month as we keep these conversations rolling into spring training. Have a question you’d like to ask in a future BCB Daily Question? Drop one in the comments and we may use it later this month.

Phillies news: Kyle Schwarber, Zack Wheeler, Lucas Giolito

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 08: Kyle Schwarber #12 of the Philadelphia Phillies reacts after hitting a solo home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the fourth inning in game three of the National League Division Series at Dodger Stadium on October 08, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Phillies News:

MLB News:

BONUS: Chase Shugart looking elite in BP

Orioles news: The gang’s all here

BALTIMORE, MD - SEPTEMBER 25: Adley Rutschman #35 of the Baltimore Orioles triples in the eight innings during a baseball game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 25, 2025 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Good morning, Camden Chatters.

As we start to tick through the key dates leading up to the start of the 2026 baseball season, the Orioles arrived at one such benchmark yesterday by holding their first full-squad workout. The whole team has now reported to Sarasota for spring training, greeting old friends and meeting new ones. In just three days, there will be baseball, with the O’s hosting the Yankees at Ed Smith Stadium on Friday afternoon for the Grapefruit League opener.

Seeing the whole gang back together again, ready to work and full of positive vibes about the season ahead, is enough to bring a smile to the face of even the most hardened cynic. Baseball is on its way, and these are your 2026 Orioles, for whatever comes next. The guys now gathered in Sarasota are the ones we’ll be spending every evening with for the next 7-8 months, more or less. Of course, there will be roster changes along the way — maybe a boatload of them, if last year’s 70-player threshold is any indication — but the core group seems set. Now it’s a matter of whittling this massive camp roster down to the 26 who will represent the Birds on Opening Day on March 26.

Priority number one: stay healthy. The O’s have already gotten some bad news injury-wise on Jackson Holliday, who will miss the first few weeks due to hamate surgery, and Jordan Westburg, who has been limited by an oblique flare-up. The Orioles no doubt will continue to suffer some aches and pains throughout their four-week exhibition season. It’s a hazard of the job. But if they can avoid major injuries and keep their projected lineup and pitching staff largely intact for the entirety of the spring, hopefully they can carry more momentum into their 2026 season than they did into their doomed 2025.

Orioles season is upon us. Let’s go have some fun.

Links

Holliday returns to Orioles camp after hamate surgery, Alexander “couldn’t be more excited to come here” – School of Roch

Holliday expects he’ll have a quick recovery from his surgery and will be able to rejoin the O’s early in the season. My bigger concern is whether the hamate injury is going to sap his power long after he returns to the lineup.

O’s are very excited about the Shane Baz addition & here are some reasons why – Steve Melewski

In lieu of actually acquiring an ace, the Orioles acquired someone who they think has the potential to become one. They’d sure better be right.

Despite not landing ace, O’s may already have 2 on starting staff – MLB.com

Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers both have ace ceilings, too, but one is coming off of Tommy John surgery and the other has less than a full season of top-notch pitching. Again, the O’s are banking a lot on less-than-sure things.

As Adley Rutschman prepares for redemption, the Orioles catcher ponders baseball’s finite nature – The Baltimore Banner

A great read from Andy Kostka about everything Rutschman and the Orioles coaches have been doing this offseason to try to reverse his year-and-a-half slide. Adley’s got a great head on his shoulders, for sure. But whether he can translate that into production at the plate remains to be seen.

Which Oriole could win a major award in 2026? | MAILBAG – BaltimoreBaseball.com

Let’s just sweep all the awards! Who says it can’t be done?

2026 Top 100 Prospects – FanGraphs

FanGraphs is the latest to drop a top-100 prospects list, and four Orioles make the cut. I won’t stand for this Nate George erasure.

Orioles birthdays and history

Is today your birthday? Happy birthday! You share your day with four ex-Orioles: right-hander Scott Williamson (50), outfielders Mike Hart (68) and Willie Kirkland (92), and the late infielder Alan Wiggins (b. 1958, d. 1991).

On this date in 2003, tragedy struck the Orioles when 23-year-old rookie righty Steve Bechler collapsed at spring training and died of multi-organ failure. The autopsy determined that a weight-loss supplement containing ephedra likely contributed to Bechler’s death, and a year later, the FDA banned the sale of ephedra-based dietary supplements in the United States.

And on this date in 2014, according to Baseball Reference, “The Orioles significantly improve their pitching staff as they sign free agent Ubaldo Jimenez … as well as South Korean Suk-min Yoon.” Yeah, uh, I’m gonna have to take issue with that “significantly improve” description. Yoon never pitched for the Orioles, posting a 5.74 ERA in 23 games at Triple-A before returning to Korea. As for Ubaldo, well, you know. He went 32-42 with a 5.22 ERA during his four years with the Orioles, ending his MLB career, and for all of our sakes I won’t mention his most infamous game.

Today in White Sox History: February 17

CHICAGO - APRIL, 1959. In April of 1959, Bill Veeck, Chicago White Sox owner, left, hears a secret from Chisox manager Al Lopez, perhaps that the club will win the American League pennant at the season's end.
Word on the street — and even in the dugout, from Al Lopez — was that the White Sox became the unofficial property of Bill Veeck on this day, 67 years ago. | (Photo by Mark Rucker/Transcendental Graphics, Getty Images)

1934
Urban “Red” Faber retired after 20 seasons with the White Sox.

Somewhat overlooked in White Sox annals given he pitched in the immediate aftermath of the legendary Ed Walsh, Faber stakes a claim as the greatest hurler in White Sox history, with 67.7 WAR. That makes him their third-best player ever, behind Luke Appling and Frank Thomas.

But don’t feel guilty if you undervalue Faber, as it took him 17 tries to make the Hall of Fame despite ranking 11th all-time in pitching WAR at the time of his retirement (and still ranks 38th all-time, 90 seasons later). Faber never received more than 30.9% BBWAA voting support over 16 (!) different votes — and 10 times failed to poll at as much as 5%.

Faber’s 254 wins (254-212) fell just six short of Ted Lyons’ all-time White Sox mark.

Faber also authored the second-best two-season span in White Sox pitching history, with 21.0 WAR (11.4 in 1921, still tied for third in team history, and 9.6 in 1922, tied for eighth). Exactly 50 seasons later, Wilbur Wood topped Faber’s feat, with a 22.5 WAR two-season span in 1971-72.

For more on Faber, read KP’s terrific piece from 2018.


1959
Bill Veeck exercised his option to purchase the White Sox from majority owner Dorothy Comiskey. However, due to her brother Chuck’s lawsuit claiming ownership of the club, the official date of sale would end up being March 5, with club transfer not occurring until March 10.


1964
Luke Appling was elected to the Hall of Fame, by curious means.

Sixty years ago, the BBWAA held “runoff” elections in years when no candidate crossed the 75% threshold on the first ballot. Appling tallied just 70.6% in regular voting, and while that led all players on the ballot, it was still nine votes short of election.

Given a second chance, the writers snapped out of their decade-long sleepwalk over Appling’s legitimacy and landslid him in, with 90.4% support.

It was Appling’s eighth attempt to be voted into the Hall, and until 1964 he hadn’t received more than 30% support! In his first year of eligibility (1953), Appling got … TWO VOTES from the BBWAA.

While of course the statistic did not exist at the time, Appling’s 77.5 career WAR ranked 18th all-time among position players and fourth among shortstops at the time (even today, Appling ranks 45th in position player WAR and 77th overall). And to this day, no shortstop has hit for a higher batting average than Appling’s .388 in 1936 — something you’d think would have had major impact in a counting-stats era.

But one aspect of the delay was sweet, at least for White Sox fans, as four-year Appling teammate Red Faber (elected via Veterans Committee) joined the Class of 1964 as well.


2006
In one of many before and after, White Sox manager Ozzie Guillén issued an apology for an off-cuff remark. This time, it was to Yankees third baseman Álex Rodríguez, over his indecision on what country to represent in the World Baseball Classic. A-Rod, who was born in the United States with Dominican heritage, first opted to play for the Dominican Republic. Then he decided not to play in the WBC at all. Finally, Rodríguez settled on suiting up for Team USA.

Guillén had been quoted by Sports Illustrated as critical of Rodríguez’s “waffling’ over his decision, making him a “hypocrite.”

The defending champion White Sox would dominate the first half of the 2006 season, but faltered and did not qualify for the playoffs despite finishing with 90 wins.

Red Sox News & Links: The Romy Gonzalez injury update is not good

New York, NY - October 2: Boston Red Sox first baseman Romy Gonzalez strikes out against the New York Yankees in the eighth inning of Game 3 of the Wild Card playoff series at Yankee Stadium on October 2, 2025. (Photo by Danielle Parhizkaran/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) | Boston Globe via Getty Images

Manager Alex Cora announced yesterday that Red Sox utility man Romy Gonzalez is currently shut down from all baseball activities except for playing catch. This announcement came after earlier reports that he initially injured his shoulder in the final series of the 2025 regular season and has been dealing with pain and discomfort all offseason. Gonzalez has received a PRP injection and has not technically yet been ruled out for Opening Day, but the fact that he has now been dealing with an injury for over four months seems, uhh, really, really bad to me.

One year ago, it wouldn’t have been a very big deal if the Red Sox announced that Romy Gonzalez was injured. But he broke out last year, particularly against southpaws. Against lefties in 2025, Romy led the team in homers, batting average, slugging percentage, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. And by the way, the players who were second, third, and fourth on the team in OPS against lefties were Rob Refsnyder, Rafael Devers, and Alex Bregman. The team’s entire offense against left-handed pitching is either gone or injured, with only Willson Contreras and Caleb Durbin to replace them.


Romy’s injury puts even more pressure on Roman Anthony, who was fifth on the team in OPS against lefties in 2025. Considering that he wasn’t even in the big leagues for the first few months of the season last year, Anthony’s swift rise to offensive cornerstone and face of the franchise is rather stunning. (Peter Abraham, Boston Globe)

Outfielder/“fastest DH in the league” Jarren Duran was asked about his performance against lefties, saying “I did pretty good against lefties in ’24, right? So, ’25 they adjusted, so in ’26 I can adjust to them.” For the record, in 2024 Duran put up an OPS of .665 against lefties. (Tim Healey, Boston Globe)

Someone who has performed well against lefties is Triston Casas, the slugger who posted an OPS of .817 against them in 2023. But 2023 was his only full season in the majors, as he is struggling to show he can stay on the field. Casas is not yet participating in full team activities and is expected to be out until at least May, but he’s okay taking his time: “This was a major injury and I’m a great player, and I don’t find any reason to rush this process. And whenever I feel ready to come back is when I am going to contribute best.” (Ian Browne, MLB.com)

The injury to Romy and the lengthy recovery for Triston Casas is also a major hit to the team’s first base depth. That’s why Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who has played every single position expect for first base in his big league career, is now working out there. (Sean McAdam, MassLive)

With so many question marks in the lineup, the 2026 Red Sox are going to need to be carried by their excellent (on paper) starting rotation. Sonny Gray is expected to be a big part of that, but right now it’s his 11-year-old son who is going viral on social media. (Chris Cotillo, MassLive)

Newcomer Johan Oviedo has not yet locked in a rotation spot alongside Gray, but Alex Cora likes what he sees out of him so far: “He’s physical. Good stuff. I don’t want to say he’s a work in progress but there’s a lot of things that we can help him accomplish and have the total package.” (Peter Abraham, Boston Globe)