Category: Baseball

Before the season, it was expected that the Chicago White Sox wouldn’t have many save opportunities for their relievers to convert. They were coming off three straight 100+ loss campaigns, including a 41-121 bottoming out in 2024. But the Sox have been one of the biggest surprises this season, checking in at 33-29, good for second place in the American League Central.

As a result, there have been plenty of save opportunities, and the man who has closed out the majority of them is former Phillie Seranthony Dominguez.

You likely remember Dominguez as the rookie who looked electric in his rookie season of 2018, only to lose effectiveness, and then ultimately over two years of his career thanks to a UCL injury. After his return, he showed flashes of his former dominating self, but there was too much inconsistency, and the Phillies ultimately shipped him to Baltimore at the 2024 trade deadline.

He served as the Orioles closer down the stretch and while he converted ten saves, he gave up a decent number of runs. He was used in a setup role for 2025 until the Orioles traded him to the Blue Jays at the deadline.

After serving as a setup reliever for the Jays, he signed a two-year deal with the Sox in the offseason and was established as their closer. Results have been mixed: While he has eleven saves, he’s also blown three chances, and his FIP is at 5.22. Basically, he’s the same guy he was for the Phillies: He can look dominating for much of the time, but there will be games when he looks incapable of retiring a batter.

Hating on the White Sox

There’s not much of a rivalry between the Phillies and the White Sox with only 28 games played between them all time, and I’m having trouble remembering any that were particularly memorable. (Oddly, five of the 28 have gone to extra innings, including all three games in 2013.)

But you know what? Screw the White Sox.

The White Sox used to be cool. They had iconic uniforms, with their hats being worn by famous rappers, and as a result became really popular with suburban white kids.

However, that coolness never really translated to the on-field product, because they rarely make the playoffs (since somehow winning the 2005 World Series, they’ve made the postseason just three times) and will be forever known as Chicago’s “other team.”

The White Sox could have beaten Camden Yards in kicking off the retro trend with their stadium but instead built perhaps the most boring stadium ever. (Though Nationals Park would have a word.) They were “fortunate” enough to find a corporate sponsor that matches the stadium’s vibe, because Rate Field sounds like it should be hosting adult league games, not a Major League Baseball franchise.

You know a franchise is down bad when they start retiring the numbers of players like Paul Konerko and Mark Buerhle. Admittedly, I’m a retired number elitist who thinks the honor should be reserved for iconic, all-time greats, but when you start hanging the numbers of “Hall of Very Good” players, it feels like it cheapens the honor. Frank Thomas should have his number retired; Konerko should be on the Wall of Fame or whatever equivalent they have.

Trivia

Last week’s answer: The Phillies recorded one hit off of Roki Sasaki in the 2025 NLDS. World War II buffs will appreciate the irony that the one hit was off the bat of Max Kepler. 7redseven was correct.

This week’s question: The first ever Phillies vs. White Sox game was played on June 18, 2002 and saw the White Sox prevail 6-3 in 12 innings. What future Phillie delivered the go-ahead hit in the 12th?

Additional thought about the series

Are you sure we can’t get any more games against the Padres?

The schedule makers say no, so the Phillies will see if their recent strong play can be duplicated against a different opponent. The good news is that different opponent is missing its best offensive player.

Much of the Sox’ success has been fueled by rookie Munetake Murakami who is on the IL with a hamstring strain. The Japanese import made a huge early splash, prompting several Phillies fans to ask why the Phillies didn’t pursue him to replace Alec Bohm at third base.

The Phillies reportedly did pursue him, but the biggest problem – aside from Japanese players apparently hating Philadelphia – is that he’s probably not a major league quality defender at third base. The Sox have had him exclusively at first base and designated hitter, and the Phillies have players already entrenched at those positions. There were also questions about how well his Japanese league numbers would translate, but he’s had no problem adjusting to major league pitching so far.

Since he’s on the IL, there will be little opportunity for irate Phillies fans to question why they didn’t sign him. Then again, if Alec Bohm continues to hit into double plays at a prodigious rate, those questions still might get asked.

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It’s a loaded 15-game slate on the diamond Friday, June 5, and I’ve got a trio of NRFI predictions to cover you throughout the action.

My top MLB picks call for a low-scoring first frame between the Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers to start the night, with the Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins also blanking the first inning to round out my betting card.

Best NRFI/YRFI predictions today

Pick	Odds
/ - NRFI	-130
/ - NRFI	-130
/ - NRFI	-110

Mariners at Tigers: NRFI (-130)

The Seattle Mariners rank last in wOBA against lefties, and Detroit Tigers southpaw Framber Valdez has pitched a scoreless first in eight of 12 starts despite his 6.75 first-inning ERA checking in way above his 3.60 career mark.

This is a tough matchup for the Tigers, too. Seattle righty Bryan Woo has fired four consecutive scoreless opening frames to improve to 10-2 to the NRFI this season, and Detroit has been held without a first-inning run in seven of its past 10 games while ranking 16th in batting average and 15th in xwOBA during the stretch.

This NRFI is playable to -140.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: DSN, SEAM

Guardians at Rangers: NRFI (-130)

With Texas Rangers righty Kumar Rocker pitching a scoreless first in three of his past four starts and holding hitters to an overall .159 batting average, I’m anticipating him taking care of a Cleveland Guardians lineup ranked 26th in wOBA against righties in the opening frame. The Guardians have only scored in the first in 27% of their games, too.

It’s a similar matchup in the bottom half, too. Cleveland southpaw Parker Messick hasn’t allowed a first-inning run all season while holding opposing hitters to a minuscule .371 OPS. The Rangers rank 28th in wOBA against lefties, too.

This NRFI hits the breakeven mark at -140.

• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Apple TV

Royals at Twins: NRFI (-110)

The Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins both rank below-average in wOBA against right-handed pitchers, and Royals starter Michael Wacha has fired a scoreless first in 10 of 12 starts while holding opposing hitters to a pedestrian .234 on-base percentage.

This is also a soft matchup for Twins righty Zebby Matthews. The Royals have only scored in the first inning in 25% of their games while struggling to a 26th-place wOBA over the past 30 days.

Matthews also sports a smooth 3.01 xERA through four starts, which slides in well below his front-facing 4.63 ERA, so this is a spot for him to sail through the opening frame.

I’d back this NFRI down to -125.

• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Apple TV

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1919
With the score tied, 1-1, deep into a game at the Polo Grounds facing the Yankees, Eddie Collins belted an inside-the-park grand slam that rolled into the very deep reaches of right-center field. Eddie Cicotte completed the win, improving to 10-1 on the season. The White Sox went three games up in the American League race, at 25-11.

Given that he hit just four homers in his career before 1910, when complete records became available, this was the only grand slam of Collins’ 47-homer career.

1923
While long road trips were not uncommon in the days of train travel and fewer teams, the White Sox set a franchise mark that remains today in embarking on a monthlong road trip. The Pale Hose visited all seven American League clubs on the journey, which lasted 27 games and a full month — not returning home until a July 7 doubleheader. Strangely enough, the long trip did wonders for the club, as the White Sox went 18-9 and improved from last in the league (eighth) at 15-24, 13 games out to third place, at 33-33.

Ultimately the club faltered and fell back to seventh place at a 69-85-2 record by season’s end. The culprit? That awful home cooking! (For the season, the White Sox were 39-40 on the road and 30-45 at home!)

1935
White Sox rookie pitcher John Whitehead saw his eight-game winning streak to start his MLB career snapped, losing to the St. Louis Browns, 2-0. Whitehead would finish 13-13 in his rookie campaign, with 18 complete games and 4.9 WAR, finishing 19th in AL MVP voting.

“Silent John” amassed in impressive 11.6 WAR in 127 games over four-plus seasons on the South Side. Ironically enough, he was dealt to the Browns during the 1939 season.

1960
White Sox pitchers Russ Kemmerer and Frank Baumann both fired shutouts in beating the Kansas City Athletics in a doubleheader. The Sox won both games by the same score: 2-0. The A’s combined for only 10 hits on the Sunday afternoon. 

1967
Eddie Stanky did it again. The White Sox manager let loose a verbal assault on Red Sox All-Star Carl Yastrzemski. Before a three-game set in Comiskey Park, Stanky was quoted as saying, “He may be an All-Star from the neck down, but in my book he’s a moody ballplayer … and I don’t like moody ballplayers.” 

Red Sox fans were incensed, and let Stanky and the Sox have an earful, as well as throwing tomatoes at him whenever he went to the mound when the Sox went to Boston the following week.

2022
With a ground-rule double to drive in the first two runs of a 6-5 win over Tampa Bay in a game the White Sox would never trail, Jake Burger recorded the game-winning RBI in a fourth straight White Sox win — a record that dates back to at least 1974.

Burger’s streak started with a three-run homer on May 25 vs. Boston, the only runs needed for a 3-1 win. Next was a 12th-inning single that won it against the Cubs on May 29. Then came a two-run shot in the eighth inning of a 2-1 game vs. the Rays on June 4, which the White Sox held on to win, 3-2.

You might note the wide range of dates, indeed during this 10-game stretch that Burger established his clutch mark the White Sox went 4-6. This win brought the club to 25-27, in its seemingly endless quest to get past the .500 mark. It would end up exactly there, at 81-81 in the disappointing spin into another rebuild — one that seems like it will last the rest of the 2020s.

Jorge Polanco is going to need a bit longer before re-joining the Mets.

The New York Post's Mike Puma reports that despite the possibility that Polanco could return from his rehab assignment for Friday's series opener against the Padres in San Diego, the veteran will remain in Syracuse.

The 32-year-old has struggled in his brief stint in Triple-A. Polanco is hitless with one walk in two games in Syracuse after going 2-for-5 with a home run in three games in Double-A Binghamton. 

Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said earlier in the week that the organization would have conversations with Polanco regarding his availability for the weekend. 

"We got to talk to the player, how he's feeling, and all that. And he's got to get cleared from the medical staff as well," Mendoza said. "It could be in play that he's active on Friday. But again, if he needs more at-bats, and it's not so much like how he's feeling physically, I think there's a combination of a lot of things there."

Polanco's first year in Flushing has been marred by injuries. Polanco played through Achilles bursitis, which relegated him to the DH role, before landing on the IL with a right wrist contusion in mid-April. Mendoza said that the wrist contusion is now a non-issue, but that Polanco will have to play through his Achilles bursitis. That means he'll be mostly a DH when he returns, although the Mets expect him to be available at first base when needed.

Before he landed on the IL, Polanco struggled at the plate. In 14 games, Polanco hit .179 (10-for-56) with one home run and three doubles to go along with two RBI. 

Once the Mets wrap up their weekend series against the Padres, they return home for a three-game set with the Cardinals starting Tuesday. 

Today’s roster move: Here

Friday notes…

• A SERIES STORY: The Cubs have lost seven and split one of their last eight series. They were 2-6 in the first games of those series and have lost the last five. They are 8-12 in all first games but 5-5 at home, 7-4 in first games after having won the last game of the previous series and 3-3 at home after having won the finale of the previous series. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• OUTHITTING THE OTHER GUY: After making only four hits through eight innings last night, the Cubs made seven in the ninth to outhit the Athletics, 11-7. The Cubs are a remarkable 27-2 when they have finished with more hits. The only losses were at home to the Pirates, 2-0, on April 10, and at St. Louis, 6-5, last Friday. They are 2-1 when they and their opponent have had the same number of hits and 4-27 when they have given up more than they have made. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• RISPy BUSINESS: The Cubs made six hits last night with runners in scoring position — five of them in the ninth inning — to match their season high, accomplished four times before. Their 10 at bats last night were their fewest in any of the games. They were had 12 vs. the Mets on April 17, 14 vs. the White Sox on May 15, 16 vs. the Angels on April 1 and 18 vs. the Phillies on April 14. The Cubs won all five games. They are 6-0 with five hits with RISP and 3-2 with four, for a total of 14-2 with at least four. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• TODAY IN CUBS HISTORY: Carlos Zambrano and Will Ohman combined on a one-hit shutout of the Astros in Houston, the only hit a one-out single by Preston Wilson in the eighth. Zambrano also hit a three-run homer as the Cubs won 8-0. It happened 20 years ago today, Monday, June 5, 2006.

Cubs lineup:

Giants lineup:

Edward Cabrera, RHP vs. Robbie Ray, LHP

Edward Cabrera’s return from the IL, where he sat out two weeks with a blister, comes at a time when the Cubs really need a solid outing from a starting pitcher.

So all we can do is hope the blister issue is behind him and he can do that.

Last year against the Giants, June 25, 2025 in San Francisco, he threw 5.1 innings, allowed three hits and two runs, and struck out six. I think we’d take that today.

Robbie Ray is 34 and will be a free agent at season’s end. As such, he’s been mentioned as someone the Cubs might have trade interest in.

His year, though, hasn’t been very good. He hasn’t gone more than five innings in any of his last five starts and in one of them (May 18 vs. the D-backs) he allowed 10 runs and two homers. (Insert obligatory “He’d fit right in with this staff with the homers” joke here.)

Ray has been particularly bad away from San Francisco (6.23 ERA in six road starts, nine HR in 30.1 innings, 2.83 ERA in six home starts, four HR in 32.1 innings), so a) the Cubs might be able to hit him and b) maybe don’t trade for him?

Here is the weather forecast for the area around Wrigley Field. There is a chance of rain this afternoon so here’s the local radar for you to keep handy.

Today’s game is on Marquee Sports Network. It’s also on MLB Network (outside the Cubs and Giants market territories).

Here is the complete MLB.com live streaming page for today.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Giants site McCovey Chronicles. If you do go there to interact with Giants fans, please be respectful, abide by their individual site rules and serve as a good representation of Cub fans in general and BCB in particular.

The 2026 game discussion procedure has been changed, so please take note.

You’ll find the game preview, like this one, posted separately on the front page two hours before game time (90 minutes for some early day games following night games).

At the same time, a StoryStream containing the preview will also post on the front page, titled “Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of week/date) game threads.” It will contain every post related to that particular game.

The Live! (formerly “First Pitch”) thread will still post at five minutes to game time. It will also post to the front page. That will be the only live game discussion thread. After the game, the recap and Heroes and Goats will also live on the front page as separate posts.

You will also be able to find the preview, Live! thread, recap and Heroes and Goats in this section link. The StoryStream for each game can also be found in that section.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

As Cade Cavalli put it, when you have 32 outings in a season, you are not going to have your best stuff every time. The key to being a good starting pitcher in this league is to manage the outing when you do not have your A game. This is something Cavalli is learning, and we are already seeing improvements. 

Back in Mid-April, Cavalli had an outing where he could not get out of the second inning against the Pirates. The Nats big right hander just totally lost the zone and could not re-find it. It seemed like Cavalli was destined for a similar outing against the Marlins. He could not find the zone in the first inning, walking three batters, including one with the bases loaded.

However, we got to see the maturation process from Cavalli. He turned his outing around, giving the Nats five solid innings, only allowing two runs. Cavalli also did not walk a batter after that first inning. He told me that he “wanted to make the hitters swing the bat”. With Cavalli’s stuff, good things tend to happen when he is around the zone.

By the third inning, Cavalli really found his good stuff and started to bully the Marlins hitters. There was a neat overlay that showed Cavalli’s fastball and his curveball. It gave you a cool visual of just how nasty his stuff is. Just when you need to gear up for a 98 MPH fastball, he drops in a hammer of a curveball.

One theme that Cavalli kept emphasizing is that he is trying to learn everyday. Cavalli turns 28 in August, and has been in the Nats organization for a long time, but he is still an inexperienced pitcher. He was a two-way player for much of his college career and then lost a lot of reps due to his slow Tommy John recovery. Despite debuting in 2022, Cavalli has only made 24 career starts.

As an inexperienced member of this staff, Cavalli said he has learned a lot from veterans like Zack Littell and Miles Mikolas. He told me that seeing the routines of these older pitchers is helpful, saying “It is not necessarily having conversations with them, it is just being a part of their day. Seeing how they prepare for starts and treat their bodies”. For me, this emphasizes the importance of having veterans around. They don’t even need to be vocal leaders, just having young guys see what it takes to be in this game for a long time matters.

It is not like those veterans are not talking either. Cavalli told me that the starters like to sit in the dugout during games, and just talk about baseball. They discuss “little nuances of the game” as he put it. Whether that is pitch location, what pitch to throw in a specific count, or when to pick off.

Cavalli was named the Opening Day starter in Spring Training, but now it feels like he is truly settling into that role of being a frontline starter. In his last 7 starts, Cavalli has a 3.38 ERA with 46 strikeouts in 40 innings. For me, the inning pitched number is what truly stands out. At the beginning of the season, Cavalli was struggling to get through five innings. However, in these 7 starts, he is averaging 5.7 innings per outing. 

Getting deeper into games is what will make Cavalli a top of the rotation starter. Hopefully, he can get that average to 6 innings as he enters his prime. I think Cavalli has the ability to go deep into games, but he needs to be more efficient. He has the ability to hold his velocity, but he has a tendency to have one really long inning.

When you watch Cavalli, you always get the sense that there is more in the tank. The combination of his fastball and curveball is a special foundation. His heater has been sitting at 97 MPH since the start of May, and the curveball is one of the best in the sport. Cavalli could be one of those pitchers who peaks in their early to mid 30’s.

Starting pitchers peaking in their 30’s is not too uncommon, especially for guys who do not have a lot of mileage on their arms. Zack Wheeler and Max Scherzer are two good examples of pitchers who truly hit their peak after 30. Cavalli is not going to be that caliber of arm, but I think the same idea applies for him. Due to his injuries and the fact he was not a full time pitcher in college, there are not a whole lot of innings in that arm, which is a good thing.

Cavalli also has some clear areas where he can improve as well. His command and control can both be hit or miss at times. He has outings where he is pounding the zone, but he can lose it very quickly. As he gets more experienced, Cavalli will learn how to settle in. We are seeing growth in that area, as shown by his last start.  

Another area that Cavalli could explore is his changeup. I think Cavalli has the bones of a great changeup. However, he only uses it 9% of the time, and it feels like he does not trust it enough. When that pitch is working, it can be a devastating offering, especially to lefties. It has so much movement, and I think it could unlock a new element of his game.

While Cavalli is doing a good job keeping the ball in the yard, he has allowed a lot of hits this year. A pitcher with his stuff should not be allowing a .269 average against. His WHIP of 1.42 is also simply too high for a pitcher of his caliber. A part of that high WHIP is the 10 batters he has hit, most of them coming on breaking balls that hit batters in the foot.

There is so much for Cade Cavalli to learn and improve, yet he is already a good starting pitcher. He has a 3.62 ERA, a 3.00 FIP and a 3.76 xFIP. Imagine what Cavalli could be if he irons out some of the warts in his profile. I am not sure he has the command to be a true ace, but I think he has the ability to be a rock solid number two starter. Even in his current form, Cavalli is a number 3 starter in a good rotation, and he is just settling in right now. The sky remains the limit for the Nats big righty.

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We've got a full slate in front of us, and there are plenty of enticing hitter spots to attack. A few names immediately jumped off the page while digging through today's matchups, and I keep finding myself drawn back to the same trio for our MLB player props. 

Jac Caglianone, James Wood, and Alec Burleson all find themselves in favorable spots against pitchers allowing plenty of hard contact and elevated batted balls.

If things break right, these are the types of matchups that can turn into a very profitable evening as we get into the top MLB picks for Friday, June 5.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Jac Caglianone	Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI	+104
James Wood	Over 1.5 Total Bases	-105
Alec Burleson	Over 1.5 Total Bases	-104

Jac Caglianone Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (+104)

There is a first time for everything, and this will be the first time I have ever backed future Kansas City Royals star slugger Jac Caglianone.

The former highly touted prospect finds himself in a great spot against Minnesota Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews, who owns some of the worst pitcher ratings in Batters Box. Matthews also carries poorly rated marks in matchup wOBA, ISO, hard contact allowed, and ground ball rate. We love pitchers who allow plenty of hard contact and elevated balls.

Matthews has struggled against left-handed hitters this season. Over the last 60 batters faced, lefties have generated a 61.3% elevation rate and 9.7% barrel rate against him, while posting a .451 xSLG and .468 wOBA.

Caglianone owns 70% arsenal coverage against Matthews' entire pitch mix. On top of that, over his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he has produced an 80.6% hard-hit rate, a 16.7% barrel rate, and nearly a 40% line-drive rate. During that stretch, his batting average is hovering around .280, but if he continues making this much hard contact, the rest of his numbers should begin to explode.

If you are unable to find his hits, runs, and RBI prop at plus money, I would look toward the over 1.5 total bases. I also think his home run prop is worth a sprinkle. The kid feels overdue for a massive breakout performance at the plate.

• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Apple TV

James Wood Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)

Yes, we are all over James Wood once again. Before you get sick of seeing some of my favorite names, let me explain why the Washington Nationals star is due for another big outing.

The big fella draws Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly, who brings a poorly rated matchup ISO to the table this evening. On top of that, Kelly has been getting hammered by left-handed hitters at home. He owns just a 17.1% ground-ball rate against lefties, meaning they're elevating the baseball 82.8% of the time, while they are also making 57.1% hard contact.

Over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, Wood sports a .463 wOBA and 203 wRC+, while producing 64.3% hard contact and a 28.6% barrel rate. Not to mention, the Nationals star owns the third-highest arsenal coverage among elite-rated hitters tonight. Wood is crushing nearly 87% of Kelly's pitch mix.

Snagging the Nationals' leadoff hitter to record a stolen base at nearly plus money always feels like a gift. That said, I would not pay too much juice for it. Play this up 

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ARID, NATS

Alec Burleson Over 1.5 Total Bases (-104)

Another hitter I found extremely hard to pass up tonight is Alec Burleson, especially when you look at how much hard contact and elevation Cincinnati Reds starter Brady Singer is allowing. We are all over the St. Louis Cardinals stud this evening.

Singer has not been able to find success against left-handed hitters this season, allowing a 45% hard-hit rate, 13.8% barrel rate, and nearly a 60% elevation rate. Those lefties own a .292 xBA, .531 xSLG, and .380 xwOBA against him. If we zoom in even further, the last 60 left-handed batters he's faced have posted a .406 xBA, .851 xSLG, and .428 xwOBA.

The Cardinals first baseman carries the only elite rating in this matchup over on Batters-Box, boasting an 85.6% arsenal coverage score against Singer's pitch mix. His overall and expected numbers by pitch type are marvelous. Over his last 90 at-bats against right-handed pitching, Burleson owns a .524 SLG while making hard contact at a rate north of 50%.

With how well Burleson matches up against Singer's offerings, coupled with the Reds right-hander allowing lefties to hit above .360 with a .649 SLG on the road, I have to be all over this prop.

As always, sprinkle the home run. I would play this prop up to -110. If you'd rather avoid laying juice, the double and home run markets are worth a look as well.

• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CARD, CINR

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Can Shohei Ohtani really win the Cy Young Award this year?

That’s the main topic of conversation on the latest episode of the Dodgers Post podcast.

On this edition, California Post baseball writers Dylan Hernandez and Jack Harris break down the Dodgers’ recent series against the Arizona Diamondbacks, including Thursday’s walk-off loss and whether there is any reason to be concerned with the bullpen.

Then, the two dive into their main debate, arguing about where Ohtani (and his 0.74 ERA) stacks up in a loaded National League Cy Young race, and whether he will accumulate enough innings to truly make a run at winning the award for the first time.

Later, the pair have a little fun, checking in on Dylan’s fortune-telling abilities, and look ahead to this weekend’s Angels series –– before making their traditional round of predictions and trivia, as always.

All that and more on this latest episode of the Dodgers Post podcast.

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The San Diego Padres will turn to Michael King as they look to snap a five-game losing streak against the New York Mets tonight.

My Mets vs. Padres predictions expect King to provide a pitching advantage that makes the difference on Friday.

Let's break down my MLB picks for June 5.

Who will win Mets vs Padres today: San Diego Padres (-130)

Both of these offenses have struggled mightily, so I’m looking at pitching to decide this game.

The San Diego Padres have an edge with Michael King on the mound. He ranks in the 91st percentile in pitching run value and has the league’s No. 1 bullpen by xFIP backing him up.

Meanwhile, New York Mets starter Christian Scott sits in the 54th percentile in Pitching Run Value, the 43rd in xERA, and has struggled with walks — something the Padres excel at drawing.

That extra traffic could be the difference. Back the Padres to -140.

COVERS INTEL: Scott ranks in the fifth percentile in ground ball rate, while the Padres are ninth in home runs per fly ball against righties.

Mets vs Padres Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (+105)

Scott owns a 2.63 ERA over the past 30 days despite a 3.75 SIERA and 3.88 xFIP. The right-hander is not pitching as well as the results suggest, and a correction is coming.

Meanwhile, King has benefited from some batted ball luck. Opponents have hit .247 on balls put in play the last month, noticeably below his career average of .285.

The Mets rank near the basement in BABIP, yet they’ve still hit .275 against righties when putting it in play. 

I see value on the Over to -105.

Mets vs Padres odds

• Moneyline: Mets +110 | Padres -130
• Run line: Mets +1.5 (-190) | Padres -1.5 (+160)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+105) | Under 7.5 (-125)

Mets vs Padres trend

New York has won only 20 of their last 50 games (-19.85 units, -30% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Padres.

How to watch Mets vs Padres and game info

Mets vs Padres latest injuries

Mets vs Padres weather

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If there’s one mantra about hitting that’s become very popular lately, it’s got to be some variation of “hit the ball hard.” Statcast has made exit velocities very visible and a very big deal, and the sabermetric revolution has broadly valued power hitting in favor of contact hitting.

So you might think that the Kansas City Royals aren’t good at hitting the ball hard. After all, they’ve been among the worst offenses in the entirety of Major League Baseball for the past two years. This year, only the San Diego Padres score fewer runs than the Royals, who score a measly 3.90 runs per game. 

You would, however, be wrong. The Royals are actually really great at hitting the ball hard. One of the best ways to measure contact quality is hard-hit rate; a hard-hit ball is simply a batted ball hit harder than 95 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate is just how often a player or team hits the ball hard. And the Royals? They rank third.

Hard-hit rate matters because there is a sharp uptick in results from batted balls at or above 95 MPH. Per MLB, balls hit under 95 MPH have a batting average of .219 and a slugging percentage of .259, while balls hit over 95 MPH have an average of .524 and a slugging percentage of 1.047. 

That the Royals would optimize for hard-hit balls makes sense. But the Royals aren’t seeing the results that you would expect for a team that hits the ball hard so often. Does that mean the Royals are, as Rex Hudler says, due for some hits to fall?

The answer is…no, not really. One of the best single stats for offensive performance is weighted on base average (wOBA), which assigns proper value to everything a hitter can do at the plate to one number. There’s also a stat called expected weighted on base average (xwOBA), which does the same thing except that it looks at exit velocity and launch angle as opposed to the actual on-field results for batted balls. 

While there are some pretty extreme outliers one way or another–for instance, the New York Mets have a team wOBA of .288 and an xwOBA of .316, and the Tampa Bay Rays have a wOBA of .324 and an xwOBA of .309–the median difference one way or another between the two stats is .006. The Royals? Also at a .006 difference. In other words, the difference between expected performance and actual performance is not that big. In other other words, the Royals may have been a little bit unlucky, but not in such a way that you can expect Kansas City to score a bazillion runs per game moving forward. 

This is important because, and I beg you to remember this, not all hard-hit outs are created equally. You can hit a ground ball in front of the plate at 200 MPH and it still isn’t going to result in a double; you can hit a fly ball straight up at 300 MPH and it isn’t going to fly out of the park. Friend of the site Shaun Newkirk pointed this out on Twitter the other week. 

The picture becomes clearer when you break down the Royals’ hard-hit rate by batted-ball type:

• Ground balls: 41%, 2nd in MLB
• Line drives: 59.2%, 2nd in MLB
• Fly balls: 39.8%, 28th in MLB

First of all, its good for the Royals to be hitting hard line drives at the second-highest rate in the league! That’s nice! Unfortunately, line drives are the least common of those three batted ball events, with the league hitting liners at about a 19% clip. 

And when it comes to the other two much more common batted ball events, the Royals have it backwards. You just can’t hit home runs over the fence if you’re hitting a ball on the ground; hitting them harder is generally better than hitting them weaker, but hard-hit ground balls also turn into double plays at a higher clip than weakly hit ground balls, so it’s not exactly a perfect trade-off. 

Meanwhile, fly balls are how you hit home runs. I don’t need to tell you that hitting fly balls weakly results in fewer home runs hit per fly ball. But some data is nice anyways, and wouldn’t you know it, the Royals have the third-worst home run per fly ball ratio in the league. 

There are other issues with this team; namely, that they continue to hit infield fly balls–automatic outs–in the top third of the league. However, it’s the distribution of hard-hit balls that’s really the issue here. It certainly seems that the Royals have some potential here. If only we could trust this organization to identify the problem and make moves to change it. 

It’s a big year for voting, some have said. We’re not talking about the November kind here, though. It’s June, which means many dollars and debates are going to be centered on your very favorite baseball players. Welcome to All-Star Game voting season, folks!

I’ll get it out of the way now: the Braves really, really want you to go to braves.com/vote to send your Braves to Philadelphia. You know, the place where they swept the Phillies in April? In this first round, you can vote five times a day for the following:

• C Drake Baldwin
• 1B Matt Olson
• 2B Ozzie Albies
• SS Ha-Seong Kim
• DH Dominic Smith
• OF Mauricio Dubón
• OF Michael Harris II
• OF Ronald Acuña Jr.

No real surprises for the nine from the Braves. How serious are the whispers about writing in Jorge Mateo over Ha-Seong Kim at SS? We’ll find out.

The Braves are looking to replicate 2023, where they had a whopping eight All-Star selections including the entire infield. You could make a case for everybody (except maybe Kim and Riley) to join near-lock Ronald Acuña Jr. while just pointing to our record. Along with Drake Baldwin returning to put the finishing touches on his great start to the year, I’d love to see MHII get his first selection, and as we know, Dubie is clutch. You all can litigate who should join them while I get into what I’m really here to talk about: the social media marketing campaigns.

I made some predictions last month on what themes the Braves and other teams in the league might go with for their creative direction for 2026 in Philly. How’d that go?

Struck out looking: USA chants intensify

As we can see, the Braves went full Founding Fathers historical portraiture. Ornate molding frames up our boys in both their media day home whites in the key graphic depicting all nine and in their tricorn-hat-finest in their individual paintings. In hindsight, I was just trying to ignore the most obvious choice. A team with a red, white, and blue-based color palette? Playing up the American history angle for Philly during America’s 250th? Yeah. 

I can’t get entirely behind it. The Braves and BravesVision social teams this season have expressed a penchant for AI imagery that I don’t super-love, and that primed me to look at these key player graphics through that lens, unfortunately. It’s kind of a letdown after the creativity of years past and knowing what the department is capable of to be really examining fingers and side-eyeing some artistic inconsistencies.

Plus… this brand of America-honoring is by far the most common theme for this year’s All-Star Game campaigns. Yes, this is America’s pasttime. Yes, the ASG branding tends to be red, white, and blue even when it’s not set to be played in one of the original thirteen colonies. But by my count, a whopping half (!) are America / American history-adjacent. So many Liberty Bells!

There are some different flavors of this, and a sliding scale of how much they leaned into it. But let’s be so honest… everyone is reheating the nachos of the Washington Nationals, who just do the colors of the flag, Constitution-type font, and historical homages all the time. So many teams… just downloaded the copycat old-timey font packs and ran. Those and Declaration of Independence partchment textures are doing a LOT of heavy lifting this year. Unlike our concept, kudos to the Guardians for getting their players in costume.

On the other hand, the Nats were hamstrung by their own brand. So they… did gritty realism, Ben-Franklin-with-a-key-and-a-kite with lighting theme? Sure!

So me not locking Braves doing American history in for my guess was mostly wishful thinking, but this still counts at me staring at the most middle-middle meatball to ever exist.

Lean wit it, Rock(y) wit it

But sometimes I know what I’m talking about!

While the Braves didn’t take me up on this, the five other clubs certainly did. The San Diego Padres and Tampa Bay Rays did exactly this, with an overall boxing poster key graphic featuring all players and individualized posters.

Arizona and Detroit aren’t doing it to the extent above, but they are going the poster treatment or alluding to it with boxing emojis in their captions. The Yankees went more wrestling than boxing, but it counts.

Birds of an (original) feather

If you squint, the Baltimore Orioles were the only ones to come close to my chosen mural concept with stylized overlays in poster art incorporating Philly landmarks/elements while remaining within their branding. I could see these on a wall. 

The Toronto Blue Jays took an extremely Canadian angle on it and just focused on “phriendship” with yearbook-esque visuals and wholesome vibes.

The last original concept was from a non-bird, non-AL East team – the Royals did a newspaper spread with Philly references in the articles with their players. It’s different, which I’ll always applaud.

Mail it in

The remaining unmentioned teams (HOU, LAA, LAD, MIN, NYM, and SEA) didn’t execute a new or differentiated concept for their All-Star campaign, relying only on their own branding with two or fewer references to the ASG location. However, I will shout out the Rockies’ for being kind of refreshing – clean, modern, only relying on the Philly cityscape. 

All in all, as much as the 2026 Braves campaign blends in with many others, I do appreciate taking the time to create separate assets per player and having a somewhat original spin. I am missing a promo video like years past, though. Make Wiley recreate Washington Crossing the Delaware or something if we’re going the paintings route.

Thus concludes my marketing audit. Mourning Walt Weiss’s Water Ice and hope the All-Star Game festivities themselves tone down the American history references, or else my dormant Hamilton phase might come back with a vengeance.

Any thoughts / favorites / hot takes? Who’s got your votes? Let us know!

Who is he and where did he come from?

He’s Joe La Sorsa and, in light of the fact that he grew up in suburban NYC, went to St. John’s, and is, you know, named Joe La Sorsa, he is the platonic ideal of a Team Italy WBC player. The Red Sox acquired him yesterday in a trade with the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for cash. Exchanging cash for something is usually called “buying something,” not “trading,” but MLB doesn’t let you call it that.

Important thing to note: he is not Jorge de la Rosa, even though your father-in-law probably spent the entire decade from 2005-2015 calling Jorge de la Rosa Joe La Sorsa.

Is he any good?

I mean, no, but you knew that already. And so does he maybe? Listen to all this negative self-talk! Not what we want to hear, Joe! Somebody teach this guy how to do affirmations in the mirror every morning.

La Sorsa doesn’t have much of a big league track record. He’s mostly been a sinkerballer out of necessity, as he doesn’t have a ton velocity on his fastball, topping out at 92 MPH. He’s 6’5, which would lead you to believe he’s one of Andrew Bailey’s extension darlings, but while he has been above average in that metric in the past, he’s not elite in it. The Red Sox will be his sixth organization since being drafted by the Rays in 2019.

Tl;dr, just give me his career MLB stats.

46 G, 57 IP, 62 H, 44 K, 16 BB, 11 HR, 33 ER, 5.21 ERA

Show me a cool highlight.

Here he is absolutely losing his goddamn mind after getting a big K against the Dutch in the 2023 WBC. My sole hope for the rest of the 2026 Red Sox season is now to see him pull out this celebration in the fifth inning of a meaningless game against the Angels and ignite a week of annoying baseball discourse.

What’s he doing in his picture up there?

That’s how all the Team Italy players look after their fifth dugout espresso.

What’s his role on the 2026 Red Sox?

He’s not Brayan Bello’s new opener, that’s for sure.

La Sorsa had an escalator clause his contract with the Pirates, which is how he ended up with the Sox. That means he has to be on the 40-man roster, but it doesn’t necessarily mean he has to be on the 26-man roster. Having said that, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a look in the big league bullpen over the next couple of weeks.

The Cubs and Giants will play their entire season series over the next 10 days, three this weekend at Wrigley Field and three next weekend in San Francisco.

Thanks, schedule-makers.

For more on the Giants, here’s Brady Klopfer, manager of our SB Nation Giants site McCovey Chronicles.

There’s no way to paint the Giants season as anything other than a fiasco. With the exception of Luis Arráez, who is having a renaissance on both sides of the ball, Buster Posey’s offseason moves have been a disaster. Harrison Bader, who is on the IL, has spent more time injured than healthy, and hasn’t hit when healthy. Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser both have bloated ERAs, though neither will face the Cubs in this series (Mahle is on the IL, and Houser pitched on Thursday). And new manager Tony Vitello, straight to the Majors following a stellar run in the college ranks, has had his fair share of learning moments. Add in disappointing seasons from most of their core players – Matt Chapman, Willy Adames, Rafael Devers, Patrick Bailey (who has been traded), and Logan Webb (who is finally figuring it out) – and it’s been a season absent of much optimism, with the Giants occupying the bottom of the standings all year long. 

But there have been some bright spots, especially lately. Top prospect Bryce Eldridge is on fire, and looks like he could anchor the lineup for the next decade. Casey Schmitt is actualizing his potential and has been such an offensive force that the former Minor League Gold Glove winner at third base became the everyday left fielder when Heliot Ramos suffered an injury, despite having never trained at the position before (and, hilariously, ordering a wrong-handed glove on Amazon). Landen Roupp has been a strong starter, and Jung Hoo Lee is hotter than hot, with a 12-game hitting streak during which time he’s hitting nearly .500. As a whole, the Giants have finally started hitting, and have been one of the better offensive teams in baseball lately, after a horific start. Still, they dug a big enough hole that the rest of 2026 is likely about preparing for 2027. They’re still playing their veterans heavily and chasing wins, but you can expect a pretty big fire sale next month. 

Fun facts

A sweep of the three-game series would raise the Cubs’ victory total against the Giants to 750 since 1920, first year of the Live Ball Era. They have lost 829 and tied six.

They are 1,091-1,168-29 in all games since the rivalry began in  1883 and  355-387-2 since 1958, the Giants’ first season in San Francisco.

At home, the Cubs are 603-533 overall and 192-182 since 1958.

The Cubs won their first game against the Giants last year, at Wrigley Field, then lost the next two at home and all three at San Francisco. They split four games at Wrigley in 2024 and swept three in 2023.

(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

Probable pitching matchups

Friday: Edward Cabrera, RHP (3-2, 4.00 ERA, 1.352 WHIP, 4.45 FIP) vs. Robbie Ray, LHP (3-6, 4.45 ERA, 1.404 WHIP, 5.40 FIP)

Saturday: Ben Brown, RHP (2-2, 1.92 ERA, 0.929 WHIP, 2.23 FIP) vs. Landen Roupp, RHP (5-6, 4.22 ERA, 1.313 WHIP, 2.82 FIP)

Sunday: Jameson Taillon, RHP (2-5, 5.13 ERA, 1.260 WHIP, 6.33 FIP) vs. Trevor McDonald, RHP (2-3, 4.50 ERA, 1.147 WHIP, 3.66 FIP)

Times & TV channels

Friday: 1:20 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, MLB Network (outside the Cubs and Giants market territories)

Saturday: 1:20 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Sunday: 7:30 p.m. CT, NBC (full national broadcast, no blackouts), also streaming on Peacock

Prediction

The Cubs had better win at least two of three or it’s gonna be a long summer. And yes, I think they can do that.

Up next

The Cubs have Monday off, then begin a road trip with a three-game series against the Colorado Rockies in Denver beginning Tuesday evening.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (26-34) won 4-1 (BOX SCORE)

Sugar Land got the scoring started in the 5th inning scoring 3 runs on an Alexander RBI single and Perez 2 run single. Brown made a rehab start for Sugar Land and pitched well striking out 4 over 4.1 innings allowing 1 run. They got another run in the 6th inning on a Biggio RBI singe. Pecko closed it out tossing 4 scoreless innings with 3 strikeouts as Sugar Land won 4-1.

Note: Biggio has a .780 OPS in Triple-A.

• Cavan Biggio, 1B: 3-for-4, R, RBI, BB
• Shay Whitcomb, LF: 2-for-4, R, BB
• CJ Alexander, RF: 1-for-5, R, RBI
• Carlos Perez, C: 2-for-4, 2 RBI, BB
• Pascanel Ferreras, 2B: 1-for-3, R, BB

• Hunter Brown, RHP: 4.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
• J.P. France, RHP: 0.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Ethan Pecko, RHP: 4.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K (WIN)

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (24-30) lost 3-2 (BOX SCORE)

The Hooks got on the board in the 3rd inning on a Biggers RBI single. Hicks started for the Hooks and was great striking out 8 over 6.1 innings allowing just 1 run. The Hooks took the lead in the 6th inning on a Schiavone RBI single. Rodriguez allowed a run in the 7th and Leach allowed a run in the 9th as the Travelers took the lead. The offense was unable to respond in the bottom of the 9th and the Hooks fell 3-2.

Note: Schiavone has a .834 OPS in Double-A.

• Trevor Austin, 3B: 1-for-4, R, 2B
• Jason Schiavone, C: 2-for-4, RBI
• Jax Biggers, 2B: 1-for-3, RBI

• James Hicks, RHP: 6.1 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
• Julio Rodriguez, RHP: 0.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
• Railin Perez, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
• Hudson Leach, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

A+: Asheville Tourists (14-39) won 10-9 (BOX SCORE)

Asheville got on the board in the first inning scoring 3 runs on a Call RBI double, Ochoa RBI double and Nunez RBI single. Hertzler started for Asheville and allowed 2 runs over 4 innings while striking out 7. The offense picked up 3 more runs in the third inning on a Nunez 2 run double and Garcia groundout. In the 4th, Powell connected on a 2 run home run to extend the lead. The offense got some insurance with a Nunez RBI double in the 7th and a Walker RBI single in the 8th. The pen allowed 7 runs, including 6 in the 9th, but held on for the 10-9 win.

Note: Ochoa has a 1.203 OPS through three games in High-A.

• Kyle Walker, SS: 1-for-3, R, RBI, 2 BB
• Justin Thomas, DH: 0-for-3, R, 2 BB
• Caden Powell, CF: 1-for-4, R, HR, 2 RBI, BB
• Chase Call, LF: 2-for-4, 2 R, 2B, RBI, SB
• Nehomar Ochoa, DH: 2-for-3, 3 R, 2B, RBI, BB, SB
• Alejandro Nunez, 2B: 3-for-3, R, 2 2B, 3 RBI, BB
• Jack Moss, 1B: 1-for-2, R, 2B, 2 BB

• Cole Hertzler, RHP: 4.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 7 K
• Conor Steinbaugh, RHP: 3.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K (WIN)
• Nate Wohlgemuth, RHP: 1.0 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
• Francisco Frias, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 2 K

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (24-30) lost 3-2 (BOX SCORE)

The Woodpeckers got on the board in the third inning on an Alvarez RBI single. Oakes got the start and pitched very well going 5.2 innings with 5 strikeouts. He left the game with two guys on but both scored after he was pulled. The Fireflies got another run in that inning as they took the lead. Huezo added an RBI double in the 7th but that was it from the offense as the Woodpeckers fell 3-2.

Note: Huezo has a .841 OPS this season.

• Anthony Huezo, LF: 2-for-4, 2B, RBI
• Kevin Alvarez, CF: 1-for-4, RBI
• Hector Salas, 3B: 0-for-2, R, 2 BB
• Yosweld Vasquez, C: 2-for-4, R
• Carlos Cauro, 1B: 1-for-3, BB

• Kellan Oakes, RHP: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
• Jose Serrano, RHP: 2.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
• Leomar Rosario, RHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Josh Hendrickson – 7:35 CT

CC: Nic Swanson – 7:05 CT

AV: TBD – 5:35 CT

FV: TBD – 6:05 CT