As always, with the conclusion of the World Series comes this year’s ranking of the winter’s top free agents. Players are ranked based on how I expect teams will view them, not on how I perceive them myself. As such, they’re listed from predicted biggest contract to smallest, using an adjustment for multi-year deals.
Excluded from the rankings are players whose options seems certain to be exercised, a group that includes Luis Robert Jr., Chris Sale and several others. I’m also expecting the likes of Tyler O’Neill, Joc Pederson and A.J. Minter to exercise their player options. I’ve included two Japanese sluggers who are set to be posted, but I held back on top right-hander Tatsuya Imai, since his status isn’t as clear at this point.
Don’t forget: Check out the Rotoworld player news feed for all the latest news, rumors, and transactions as MLB’s Hot Stove gets underway!
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D.J. Short
All ages are as of Apr. 1, 2026.
▶ Top 100 MLB Free Agents
1. Kyle Tucker (29, OF, Cubs)
Back-to-back seasons marred by injury won’t help Tucker’s market, but he put up the best numbers of his career during his half season in 2024 and he was off to another great start in 2025 before suffering a hand injury that was only much later revealed to be a fracture. Both that and the fractured shin from 2024 seem like fluky injuries, and Tucker played 505 out of a possible 546 games the previous four years. Of some concern is that, in spite of his excellent basestealing ability, Tucker is slow and getting slower, leaving him with subpar range in the outfield. However, he seems like someone who would take well to first base a few years down the line.
Prediction: nine years, $360 million
2. Dylan Cease (30, SP, Padres)
Cease’s ERAs are all over the place, but the underlying stats have been remarkably stable over the last five years, with only a modest blip as his velocity dipped some in 2023. While he wound up 8-12 with a 4.55 ERA for the Padres in his walk year, his strikeout rate held steady at 30% and he had a 3.46 xERA and a 3.58 SIERA. Teams will also be enthralled by his durability; he’s never missed a start since debuting in mid-2019. It’s still entirely possible that he has a year or two of Cy Young contention in his future.
Prediction: seven years, $210 million
3. Bo Bichette (28, SS, Blue Jays)
Bichette was all set to lead the AL in hits for a third time this year before a sprained knee cost him the final 20 games. Even so, at 181, he still finished just three behind Bobby Witt Jr. for the major league lead. That he returned from the knee injury as a second baseman in the World Series is a fascinating turn ahead of his free agency; it’s doubtful anyone was going to look at him as a long-term shortstop anyway, and if he’s willing to change positions now, it would open up his market. There will probably come a time at which Bichette’s lack of bat speed leads to real problems, but he’s a difference-maker on offense right now.
Prediction: eight years, $216 million
4. Alex Bregman (32, 3B, Red Sox)
Bregman didn’t get the long-term deal he wanted last winter, settling for a three-year, $120 million pact with Boston that gave him the right to opt out. Now he’ll give it another try after a season in which he was fantastic for two months before missing 43 games with a quad injury. He continued to produce initially after returning, but he hit just .180/.273/.262 in his final 31 games, dropping his OPS from .933 to .821. Bregman remains a strong defender, and he’s showed an impressively steady bat since his steep decline from his near-MVP campaigns in 2018 and ’19. Still, it’d be dangerous to give him the kind of rest-of-career contract he obviously desires.
Prediction: five years, $160 million
5. Framber Valdez (31, SP, Astros)
On paper, Valdez seems like the best pitcher available; he’s made 121 starts with a 3.21 ERA the last four years and shown no real decline in stuff in the process. Still, questions about his conditioning and attitude linger, and his recent postseason performances were particularly discouraging. It might serve to knock a year or two off of what will still be a very healthy contract.
Prediction: five years, $150 million
6. Pete Alonso (31, 1B, Mets)
Alonso’s first foray into free agency last year saw him coming off a down season in which he hit just .240/.329/.459. He’s back on the market now after hitting .272/.347/.524 and declining a $24 million player option to spend an eighth season with the Mets. Alonso’s exit velocity numbers last season were all the best of his career, with his 54% hard-hit rate towering well above his previous high of 47% from 2021. It makes him look like a pretty good bet on a four-year deal. He’ll want more, though.
Prediction: five years, $150 million
7. Cody Bellinger (30, 1B/OF, Yankees)
Bellinger’s nine-season MLB career breaks down rather remarkably:
2017-19: .278/.368/.559, 111 HR, 22% K rate in 450 games
2020-22: .203/.272/.376, 41 HR, 25% K rate in 295 games
2023-25: .281/.338/.477, 73 HR, 15% K rate in 412 games
Bellinger’s declining bat speed seems like a problem, but his approach is just so good these days. He does probably need to stick with a team that plays in a ballpark with a short porch in left. He’s great in the outfield corners and at first base, and he could still probably handle center if necessary.
Prediction: five years, $145 million
8. Kyle Schwarber (33, DH, Phillies)
Schwarber’s 56 homers and 132 RBI in his walk year bested his previous highs by nine and 28, respectively. That he hit .244 in the second half of his four-year deal with the Phillies, compared to .207 in the first half, has dramatically increased his value, with the caveat that no one can know how much longer it will last. Still, he’ll almost certainly get another four-year deal, this one worth considerably more than the $79 million he signed for in 2022.
Prediction: four years, $128 million
Matthew Pouliot9. Ranger Suárez (30, SP, Phillies)
Suárez seems like the biggest risk among the top 10 free agents, but it’s impossible not to have him here. The largest cause for concern is that his fastball velocity has dropped 2.5 mph since 2023. Still, these last two seasons have been exceptional, with the left-hander posting a 3.33 ERA and a 23.2% strikeout rate. Suárez has also never made 30 starts in a season, though he has topped 150 innings three of the last four years, and he’s had just one arm problem as a major leaguer, costing him the first quarter of the 2023 season. Every team would love to have him, and every team that pursues him is going to be sweating the back half of the deal.
Prediction: five years, $135 million
10. Josh Naylor (28, 1B, Guardians)
Naylor is definitely hitting free agency at the right time; his 128 OPS+ was just off his career high, he went a ridiculous 30-for-32 stealing bases despite being one of the slowest guys in the league and his clubhouse rep got a big boost during Seattle’s run to the ALCS. Plus, thanks to the midseason trade, he can’t get be saddled with a qualifying offer.
Prediction: five years, $125 million
11. Shane Bieber (30, SP, Blue Jays)
Bieber’s return from 2024 Tommy John surgery has been a great success, as he’s shown his best velocity since 2021. The stuff still obviously wasn’t what it was when he was maybe the best pitcher on the planet in 2020, but what he has now should make an above average starter going forward.
Prediction: four years, $112 million
UPDATE: Bieber exercised the $16 million player option in his contract and will remain with the Blue Jays for 2026.
12. Munetaka Murakami (26, 1B/3B, Japan)
Murakami seemed very much like one of the best players in the world three years ago, when, at just 22 years old, he broke the NPB single-season record for Japanese-born players with 56 homers and hit .318 with a 125/118 K/BB for the Yakult Swallows. Since then, though, he’s hit just .254, and his strikeout rate has climbed from 21% to 29%. It’s a dead-ball era in Japan, but that doesn’t account for all the swings and misses he’s generating. His power is exceptional, and he’ll find the MLB baseball more to his liking. Hopefully, he’ll wind up as more of a .240-.250 hitter than a .200-.220 guy.
Prediction: five years, $120 million
13. Edwin Díaz (32, RP, Mets)
Three years into a five-year, $102 million contract that made him the highest-paid reliever of all-time, Díaz figures to opt out and sign a new deal that keeps him in that position. 2025 saw him finish with a sub-2.00 ERA for the fourth time in his career and strike out 38% of the batters he faced. One imagines he’ll get a four- or five-year deal with a slight raise.
Prediction: five years, $110 million
14. Michael King (30, SP, Padres)
After breaking out as a starter in his first year in San Diego, King was limited to 15 starts by shoulder and knee injuries last season and saw his strikeout rate dip from 28% to 25% and his hard-hit rate increase from 30% to 38%. On the other hand, his velocity held steady and stuff models didn’t see any drop off from 2024. His next contract seems like a high risk, high reward kind of deal, which should be of more interest to top contenders than those who need to play it a little safer.
Prediction: three years, $84 million
15. Eugenio Suárez (34, 3B, Mariners)
49 homers is remarkable regardless, but it’s especially impressive that Suárez got there with Chase Field and T-Mobile as his home parks. Still, Suárez is 34, his defense seems to be in decline and those 49 homers came with a .298 OBP. A two-year deal seems appropriate, but someone will probably go three.
Prediction: three years, $78 million.
16. Devin Williams (31, RP, Yankees)
Williams could opt for a one-year contract after a down season, but it’s doubtful he’ll need to. He finished pretty strong, and his 4.79 ERA for the Yankees still came with a 35% strikeout rate and his best walk rate since 2020. ERA estimator SIERA put him at 2.67, which is right at his 2.70 average from the previous four seasons. He ought to be valued as one of the game’s best relievers.
Prediction: four years, $88 million
17. Trevor Story (33, SS, Red Sox)
It would have been hard to fathom Story opting out of his deal with the Red Sox a year ago, but after a season in which he hit .263/.308/.433 and drove in 96 runs in 157 games, he could walk away from the $55 million he’s owed over the next two seasons. If he does so, the Red Sox would have the option to lock him in at $75 million for three years. That would seem to be about what Story is worth in a weak market for shortstops, so it’s just up to what he wants. If he stays in Boston, the team should think about moving him to second and installing Marcelo Mayer at short.
Prediction: three years, $75 million
18. Brandon Woodruff (33, SP, Brewers)
Fortunately, Woodruff’s season-ending setback in his return from shoulder surgery proved to be a lat strain and not something that figures to carry over into 2026. Even though his velocity was down about three mph from his prime, the right-hander performed incredibly well after his summer return, amassing a 3.20 ERA and an 83/14 K/BB in 64 2/3 innings. No one is going to want to risk a particularly long-term contract, so Woodruff might take a deal that allows him to opt out after one year.
Prediction: three years, $72 million
19. Lucas Giolito (31, SP, Red Sox)
Giolito was a nice surprise for the Red Sox in his first year back from Tommy John, going 10-4 with a 3.41 ERA in 26 starts before missing the postseason with what was apparently elbow inflammation. That late injury sets up the possibility that Giolito could exercise his half of a $19 million mutual option, but that still seems unlikely.
Prediction: two years, $48 million
20. J.T. Realmuto (35, C, Phillies)
Realmuto just finished up a five-year, $115.5 million contract that is still the standard for catchers (the extra half million gave him a $23.1 million average salary designed to put him just ahead of Joe Mauer’s $23 million-per-year deal from 2011-18). He’s no longer the player he was when he inked that contract, but he still stands out among this year’s catching crop with his durability and solid numbers at the plate. He’ll probably have his pick of two-year offers, and someone might go three.
Prediction: three years, $60 million
21. Zac Gallen (30, SP, D-backs)
One of the NL’s best pitchers in 2022, Gallen mostly kept it together in 2023 and ’24 even though his exit velocity numbers were thoroughly mediocre. In 2025, his strikeout rate dropped from 25-27% to 21.5% and his ERA skyrocketed to 4.83. Gallen has proved durable and his velocity has held pretty steady, so there should be no shortage of teams wanting to take a look at him. He’s a prime candidate for a contract that allows him to opt out after one season, or he might even accept the $22 million qualifying offer, assuming that the Diamondbacks make him one.
Prediction: two years, $45 million
22. Merrill Kelly (37, SP, D-backs)
Kelly is seven years older than Gallen and didn’t enjoy a great finish with the Rangers, but the fact that he, unlike his former Arizona rotationmate, can’t be handed a qualifying offer will make him the more desirable free agent option for a lot of teams. Kelly had a 4.23 ERA and a 19.7% K rate in 10 starts with Texas after coming in at 3.22 with a 23.5% K rate for the D-backs, but he’s been remarkably solid on the whole these last four years.
Prediction: two years, $44 million
23. Kazuma Okamoto (29, 1B/3B, Japan)
Okamoto is older than Murakami and has never had a season quite like Murakami’s 2022, but he’s been a consistently potent bat for the Yomiuri Giants for eight years now, and he did some of his best work while healthy last season, hitting .327/.415/.598 with 15 homers and a 33/33 K/BB in 69 games. He’s probably best suited for first base and he’s unlikely to show 30-homer power in MLB, but he should be a steady run producer and potentially a safer investment than Murakami.
Prediction: three years, $54 million
24. Chris Bassitt (36, SP, Blue Jays)
Bassitt lost one mph off his fastball last season, but he held steady otherwise, posting a 108 ERA+ and finishing with his usual 22% strikeout rate. He was also particularly impressive in returning from a back injury as a reliever in the postseason, something that could make him extra interesting to top contenders who might appreciate that flexibility in October.
Prediction: two years, $40 million
25. Shota Imanaga (32, SP, Cubs)
The three-year, $57 million option on Imanaga’s contract seemed like a no-brainer for the Cubs for most of the year, but he gave up 12 homers in his final six starts, taking his ERA from 3.03 to 3.73, and then continued to struggle into October, which led to the Cubs bypassing him in the decisive Game 5 of the NLDS against the Brewers. With his velocity down a little, Imanaga’s strikeout rate fell from 24% in his first year in Chicago to 21% last season. There’s still a good case for him being worth the $57 million, but the Cubs might decide to decline it and aim higher in free agency. Imanaga would then get player options for $15 million next year and $17 million in 2027, but he could probably do better than that in free agency.
Prediction: two years, $40 million
26. Ryan Helsley (31, RP, Mets)
Helsley believes it was pitch tipping that allowed the league to catch up to him last season, and given the lack of any real change in terms of stuff, it seems like that he’s right. Helsley had a 1.83 ERA from 2022-24, and his slider ranks as one of the game’s best.
Prediction: three years, $48 million
27. Jack Flaherty (30, SP, Tigers)
Flaherty’s odd campaign saw him essentially match his career strikeout, walk and home run rates, yet finish with an ERA a run higher than his career mark (4.64 to 3.63) and lead the AL in losses. The Tigers, incredibly, went 9-22 in his starts and 78-53 the rest of the time. Flaherty now has the option of sticking around Detroit for $20 million or taking his chances elsewhere. He’ll probably be able to do a little better in free agency while coming off a third straight relatively healthy season.
Prediction: one year, $24 million
28. Harrison Bader (31, OF, Phillies)
After settling for $6.25 million as a free agent last year, Bader put up his best offensive season to date, hitting .277/.347/.449 in a career-high 501 plate appearances with the Twins and Phillies. It took adding some more swing and miss to his game -- he struck out 27% of the time -- but his 40% hard-hit rate far outpaced his career mark of 32%. Most likely, he’ll fall back some offensively, but he remains an above average defensive center fielder, and there’s no one else on this list who fits that description.
Prediction: two years, $38 million
29. Gleyber Torres (28, 2B, Tigers)
Torres wanted a one-year deal as a free agent last winter and made good on it, turning in a better season offensively and defensively than he did in his final year in New York. How much of a reward that will provide remains to be seen. Teams don’t love making big commitments to second basemen, and Torres still lacks range at that position and the foot speed and arm strength to contribute anywhere else. He’s a nice enough player right now, but a long-term commitment still wouldn’t make much sense.
Prediction: three years, $45 million
30. Robert Suarez (35, RP, Padres)
At age 34, Suarez had his most encouraging season since returning to the U.S., making it an easy call for him to opt out of the final two years and $16 million the Padres owe him. His K:BB has improved from 2.7 in 2022-23 to 3.7 in 2024 and 4.7 in 2025. It’ll be interesting to see if San Diego works to bring him back; if they do, it’d seem to be a sign that they really do want to try Mason Miller in the rotation.
Prediction: three years, $45 million
31. Tyler Mahle (31, SP, Rangers)
In the last 3 1/2 years, Mahle has had several rounds of shoulder problems and undergone Tommy John surgery, but he did impress while healthy for the Rangers last season, posting a 2.18 ERA in 16 starts. A big-budget team could roll the dice on him staying relatively healthy for the first time since 2021, when he had a 125 ERA+ and a 28% strikeout rate in 33 starts for the Reds.
Prediction: two years, $36 million
32. Trent Grisham (29, OF, Yankees)
Grisham’s 34-homer breakout was quite the story, and there’s enough improvement in his strikeout and exit velocity numbers to think some of it will stick around. Unfortunately, however, he’s lost so much speed that, unless he can get that back somehow, he needs to be looked at as a corner outfielder going forward. Also, he was definitely a little lucky to rack up the 34 homers; Statcast gave him an expected total of 28, and besides the homers, he totaled just 10 extra-base hits all year (nine doubles, one triple).
Prediction: two years, $34 million
33. Jorge Polanco (32, 2B/3B, Mariners)
Polanco followed up the worst year of his career with the best, hitting .265/.326/.495 with 26 homers in his return to Seattle. It didn’t seem fluky, either, as he made consistent hard contact while striking out just 16% of the time. He even fared better than expected at second base after being signed to play third and then, in part because of knee soreness, spending much of the year as a DH. It’s still hard to project Polanco as a second baseman going forward, and continued time at DH might keep him from breaking down.
Prediction: two years, $34 million
34. Ha-Seong Kim (30, SS, Braves)
Kim’s return from shoulder surgery didn’t go as well as hoped, but he did pick it up in the end after the Braves claimed him off waivers from the Rays, hitting .253/.316/.368 with three homers in his final 24 games. The thrifty Rays dropped Kim because they didn’t want to risk him picking up his $16 million player option, but as a fine defensive shortstop and at least the potential for league-average offense, he figures to be worth at least that much in his first full season back. It’s just a matter of whether he wants to try to further rebuild his value on a one-year pact or if he would prefer to lock in for two or three years now.
Prediction: one year, $18 million
35. Raisel Iglesias (36, RP, Braves)
25 appearances into his 2025 season, Iglesias had a 6.75 ERA, four blown saves in 12 chances and five losses, briefly costing him his job as Atlanta’s closer. Fortunately, he turned things around extremely well from there, posting a 1.25 ERA and a 48/10 K/BB in his final 43 1/3 innings. He allowed one run in his final 27 outings. He’ll probably become more homer-prone as he enters his upper-30s, but he’s still a reasonable closing option for now.
Prediction: two years, $28 million
36. Ryan O’Hearn (32, 1B, Padres)
O’Hearn’s decline after being traded away by the Orioles is more of a concern than it might otherwise be, as his exit velocity numbers fell way off while his strikeout rate went in the other direction. Of course, it was still a nice season overall, as he hit .281/.366/.437 in 544 plate appearances. That he’s turned himself into an above average defender at first base also adds to his case for a multiyear deal.
Prediction: two years, $28 million
37. Tyler Rogers (35, RP, Mets)
Rogers is a 35-year-old who never breaks 85 mph and has no history of closing, yet he might also be the safest relief investment on the market. In spite of his heavy workloads -- he’s topped 70 innings in five straight seasons -- the submarining Rogers was as effective as ever in amassing a 1.98 ERA last season and his 83.5 mph average on his fastball was actually a career high.
Prediction: three years, $33 million
38. Max Muncy (35, 3B, Dodgers)
With their unmatched payroll and potentially a desire to get younger in the lineup, it’s reasonable to ask if the Dodgers might want to move on from Muncy this winter. Still, his club option is a paltry $10 million, which seems like a bargain for a player coming off another three-WAR season.
Prediction: option exercised
39. Justin Verlander (43, SP, Giants)
Although he has indicated he wants to keep pitching until age 45, it looked like Verlander might be finished at 42 with the way he threw the first half of last season. Fortunately, he bounced back nicely afterwards, going 4-3 with a 2.60 ERA and a 70/24 K/BB over 72 2/3 innings in his final 13 starts. He allowed one or no runs in eight of those. He seems like at least as good of a bet now as he did last winter, when he got $15 million from the Giants.
Prediction: one year, $15 million
40. Luis Arraez (28, 1B/2B, Padres)
Arraez’s down year came at the worst possible time, as he hit .292/.327/.392 in 2025 after coming in at .328/.371/.426 over the previous three years. He doesn’t seem like a legitimate second baseman at this point, and he needs to bat at least .310 to be of much help as a first baseman. He’s just turning 29 in April, so a bounce-back is certainly possible. But it’s hard to see why any team would want to commit to him for more than a year or two.
Prediction: one year, $14 million
41. Brad Keller (30, RP, Cubs)
A one-time sinkerballing, mid-rotation starter for the Royals, Keller had nearly fallen out of the league entirely before his sudden emergence as a flamethrowing setup man for the Cubs last season. He struck out 27% of the batters he faced while averaging 97 mph with his fastball, and he was still a strong groundball pitcher in the process. That seems worth a two-year commitment.
Prediction: two years, $22 million
42. Max Scherzer (41, SP, Blue Jays)
Scherzer, who had a 3.77 ERA in his three postseason starts, indicated after Game 7 that he plans on returning from another year, and he’s already been linked to the Giants, since that team just hired his good friend Tony Vitello as their new manager.
Prediction: one year, $13 million
43. Marcell Ozuna (35, DH, Braves)
Ozuna’s 2025 fade can seemingly be explained by a tear in his hip. He had an .883 OPS through two months after coming in at .905 and .925 the previous two years, both of which saw him drive in 100 runs. He’s strictly a DH and it’s possible he’ll continue to decline, but he presents a chance to lock in a pretty good cleanup hitter on a one-year deal.
Prediction: one year, $13 million
44. Cody Ponce (31, SP, Korea)
Ponce was last seen in the majors going 0-6 with a 7.04 ERA in 38 1/3 innings for the 2021 Pirates. He then spent three years in Japan and 2025 in Korea, where he turned in one of the KBO’s best seasons of all-time in going 17-1 with a 1.89 ERA and a 252/41 K/BB in 180 2/3 innings. That’s not with Japan’s dead ball, either; the KBO had a 4.31 ERA last season. Ponce always had good command, and he’s throwing harder now than he used to. He should be useful in the middle of a rotation for a couple of years.
Prediction: two years, $20 million
45. Kenley Jansen (38, RP, Angels)
While obviously not the dominant force he was, Jansen has also never been ineffective as he continues his steady march towards 500 saves (now 24 away). The day is coming when he’ll lose it -- last season’s career-worst 24.4% strikeout rate isn’t a good omen -- but his velocity has held steady and stuff models still like him plenty.
Prediction: one year, $12 million
46. Dustin May (28, SP, Red Sox)
May stayed healthy enough to make 23 starts and two relief appearances, but with his velocity down 2-3 mph and his cutter lacking its former movement, he just wasn’t the same pitcher in his return from flexor tendon and esophageal surgeries last season. Fortunately, he still has youth on his side, and if he is stronger in his second year back, he’s someone a team can imagine starting a postseason game.
Prediction: one year, $12 million
47. Victor Caratini (32, C, Astros)
Caratini’s performance warrants a starting job in free agency, but that was also the case last time around, when he took a two-year, $12 million contract to play behind Yainer Diaz in Houston. He went on to hit .263/.329/.406 in 660 plate appearances over the two seasons. Of some concern is that he’s never started more than 81 games behind the plate in a season and hasn’t even topped 55 as a part-timer the last three seasons.
Prediction: two years, $18 million
48. Kyle Finnegan (34, RP, Tigers)
It should be pretty embarrassing to the Nationals how, mostly just by encouraging him to throw his splitter more often, the Tigers instantly turned Finnegan into a strikeout machine after picking him up at the deadline; he had a 4.38 ERA and a 20% K rate prior to the trade and a 1.50 ERA and a 35% K rate afterwards. That he wasn’t as sharp in October after missing much of September with an adductor strain could cost Finnegan some, but he’ll still do considerably better than if he had finished the season in D.C.
Prediction: one year, $11 million
49. Luke Weaver (32, RP, Yankees)
Following up his breakthrough 2024, Weaver continued to look like one of the league’s best relievers in posting a 1.05 ERA over the first two months. However, upon returning from a hamstring strain in late June, he had a 5.31 ERA the rest of the way, even though he fanned 48 in 39 innings. He then went and allowed five runs while getting one out in three postseason appearances, good for a 135.00 ERA. He was probably tipping his pitches then, and his mid-90s fastball/changeup combo still looks good on the surface, but because of his struggles, he’ll probably need to settle for a one-year deal.
Prediction: one year, $11 million
50. Mike Yastrzemski (35, OF, Giants)
Giants right fielders hit something like .030 after the team regrettably sent Yastrzemski to the Royals at the deadline. Maybe the most consistent player in the league in recent seasons, Yastrzemski has finished between 2.0 and 2.7 WAR every year since 2019 (the one time he was inconsistent was the shortened 2020, when he posted a .968 OPS and actually finished with 2.7 WAR in 54 games). Yaz should be slowing down at this age, but his exit velocity numbers were a little better than usual last season and he posted a career-low 19% strikeout rate. He’s a very easy one-year solution as a platoon corner outfielder.
Prediction: one year, $11 million
51. Zach Eflin (31, SP, Orioles)
Eflin’s strikeout rate collapsed to 16% in 14 starts last season, and he had a 5.93 ERA before undergoing season-ending back surgery. He’s mostly avoided arm woes and is young enough to bounce back, but he’s in line for a one-year deal at this point.
Prediction: one year, $11 million
52. Steven Matz (34, RP, Red Sox)
Matz took to a relief role with surprising gusto last season, posting a 3.44 ERA for the Cardinals and then a 2.08 ERA after a deadline deal sent him to Boston. Assuming he’s content to stay in the pen, a multiyear deal seems like a possibility here. He’d probably be in much less demand if he insists on marketing himself as a starter.
Prediction: two years, $17 million
53. Seranthony Domínguez (31, RP, Blue Jays)
Domínguez just pitched a career-high 62 2/3 innings with his best ERA (3.16) and strikeout rate (30.3%) since his rookie season in 2018. He’s not a perfect eighth- or ninth-inning guy in a contender’s bullpen, but having him around worked out pretty well for the Blue Jays.
Prediction: two years, $16 million
54. Adrian Houser (32, SP, Rays)
Houser appeared to be on his way out of the league a year ago, but he reclaimed the velocity he lost the previous couple of seasons and ended up with a nice 3.31 ERA in 21 starts for the White Sox and Rays. He needs a quality defensive infield behind him, but if the velocity sticks, he’s a useful fifth starter.
Prediction: one year, $10 million
55. Emilio Pagán (34, RP, Reds)
The Reds would have preferred it had Pagán not picked up his $8 million player option a year ago, but it certainly worked out well that he did; he went 32-for-38 saving games and finished with a 2.88 ERA in 66 2/3 innings. Pagán remains an extreme flyball pitcher who would fit better in a bigger ballpark. He might get more money as a setup man for a contender than as a closer for a lesser team.
Prediction: one year, $10 million
56. Cedric Mullins (31, OF, Orioles)
Mullins had respectable numbers for the Orioles last season, but he hit just .182 after joining the Mets, leaving him at .216/.299/.391 overall. His defense in center field has also worsened, and there isn’t much of a case for starting him against lefties at this point. That said, he can still yank a flyball down the right field line, making him interesting for teams that have short porches that way.
Prediction: one year, $10 million
57. Drew Pomeranz (37, RP, Cubs)
Following three seasons in which he never threw a pitch in the majors, Pomeranz resurfaced with the Cubs in late April and went 18 straight appearances without allowing a run and then eight more before giving up his first earned run. He finished with a 2.17 ERA and a 28% strikeout rate and then retired 18 of the 19 batters he faced in the postseason. There’s no guarantee that he’ll stay healthy again, but a large-market team will pay him $10 million and hope for the best.
Prediction: one year, $10 million
58. Anthony Kay (31, SP, Japan)
If he gets some decent offers, Kay, a former first-round pick of the Mets, will probably give MLB another try next year. His cutter seems to have come a long way in the two seasons since he left for Japan, and he finished second in the Central League with a 1.74 ERA while going 9-7 with a 130/41 K/BB in 155 innings for Yokohama last season.
Prediction: two years, $15 million
59. Nick Martinez (35, SP/RP, Reds)
An apparent ability to avoid hard contact helped Martinez post a 3.31 ERA in 35 starts and 117 relief appearances from 2022-24. It didn’t really carry over last season, though, and after becoming the only free agent to accept a $21.05 million qualifying offer, he posted a 4.45 ERA in 26 starts and 14 relief appearances for Cincinnati. He doesn’t have as much mileage on his arm as most 35-year-olds, and he still might have a few more useful years as a swingman. However, if he wants a guaranteed rotation spot, he’ll probably have to sign with a lesser team.
Prediction: one year, $9 million
60. José Alvarado (30, RP, Nationals)
Alvarado’s 80-game PED suspension doesn’t seem to have soured the Phillies on him, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski indicated last month than that the lefty would likely return. Whether that means picking up his $9 million option or coming to terms on another multiyear deal is unclear.
Prediction: option exercised
61. Tomoyuki Sugano (36, SP, Orioles)
It was a given that Sugano would struggle to miss bats in MLB -- he hadn’t had even a 20% K rate in Japan since 2021 -- but the hope was he’d finesse his way into being a league average starter anyway. As it turned out, he came up a little short, giving up 33 homers and finishing with an 88 ERA+. If he wants to keep pitching in the U.S., he’ll probably have to take less than the $13 million he earned in his one-year pact with Baltimore.
Prediction: one year, $8 million
62. Michael Soroka (28, SP/RP, Cubs)
Soroka got a surprising $9 million from the Nationals last winter despite finishing 0-10 with a 4.74 ERA for the White Sox in 2024, but it was an intriguing roll of the dice based on the swing-and-miss ability he showed out of the pen. Back in the rotation in D.C., he went 3-8 with a 4.87 ERA in 16 starts, though it came with a nice 87/24 K/BB in 81 1/3 innings. The Cubs acquired him at the deadline, but he went on to miss six weeks with a shoulder strain after his first start and only returned to make five relief appearances. On the whole, he seems like about as good of a bet now as he did a year ago, although it might be better to use him as a full-time reliever. The ability is there for him to start, but keeping him off the IL has proven very difficult.
Prediction: one year, $8 million
63. Danny Jansen (30, C, Brewers)
After signing him to a one-year, $8.5 million contract in free agency, the Rays opted to bail on Jansen last summer, trading him to Milwaukee and acquiring Hunter Feduccia from the Dodgers and Nick Fortes from the Marlins as their new catching duo. Jansen went on to hit .254/.346/.433 as William Contreras’s backup, leaving him with a .215/.321/.399 line overall. He still seems like a viable starter offensively, but the decline in his framing numbers will leave some teams wary.
Prediction: one year, $8 million
64. David Robertson (40, RP, Phillies)
Robertson didn’t find any offers to his liking after an outstanding season with the Rangers in 2024, so he took the first half off before joining the Phillies and posting a 4.08 ERA in 20 appearances. The absence likely played a role in his decline in velocity, though absent the spike he enjoyed the previous three years, his 91.7 mph average on his cutter was still right about where he was at during his prime years. Robertson might choose another midseason return or walk away entirely now, but he still most likely has what it takes to contribute as a setup man for a contender.
Prediction: one year, $8 million
65. Zack Littell (30, SP, Reds)
Littell’s second year as a full-time starter saw only a slight jump in his ERA from 3.63 to 3.81, but the drop in his strikeout rate from 21.5% to 17.1% seems like a big deal. He makes more sense as an innings eater for a rebuilding team than he would for a contender.
Prediction: one year, $8 million
66. Foster Griffin (30, SP, Japan)
Griffin, the Royals’ first-round pick in 2014, is planning to return to MLB after three years in Japan. He missed about half of 2025, but he was terrific in posting a 1.62 ERA in 78 innings for Yomiuri, and he had a 2.57 ERA and a 25% strikeout rate overall in his three seasons. Several teams will give him a look as a potential fourth or fifth starter.
Prediction: two years, $12 million
67. Paul Goldschmidt (38, 1B, Yankees)
Despite finishing out 2025 as a role player starting against lefties, Goldschmidt wants to keep his Hall of Fame career going at age 38. It’s hard to see a contender signing him as a regular after he hit just .247/.289/.329 against righties, but a lesser team might, and if he’s content as a platoon guy, who wouldn’t want to have him around?
Prediction: one year, $7.5 million
68. Germán Márquez (31, SP, Rockies)
Any number of teams would have loved to lure Márquez out of Colorado a few years ago, but after missing most of 2023 and ’24 following Tommy John surgery, he showed little in finishing with a 6.70 ERA and an ugly 14% strikeout rate last season. He might not be hopeless -- his velocity is down just one mph from his peak -- but he’s five years removed from his last quality season.
Prediction: one year, $7.5 million
69. Willi Castro (28, INF/OF, Cubs)
Castro had a really rough go of it after a deadline deal sent him to the Cubs, hitting .170/.245/.240 in 110 plate appearances, but before that, he hit .250/.335/.398 in 2 1/2 seasons with the Twins. As one of the youngest and most versatile free agents available, he’ll probably get some two-year offers. Still, he might prefer a chance to hit free agency on a higher note next winter.
Prediction: one year, $7 million
70. Starling Marte (37, OF, Mets)
Marte faded into a part-time role in the final season of his four-year, $78 million deal with the Mets, but he showed he’s still a useful bat in hitting .270/.335/.410, and he also finished with his best defensive numbers in a few years. It’s probably the case that the limited role suits him best at age 37 and after the leg problems he’s experienced in recent years, but he can still help a contender.
Prediction: one year, $7 million
71. Josh Bell (33, 1B, Nationals)
Bell probably would have been part of a deadline deal for a fourth straight season in 2025, but no one had much interest in a designated hitter with a .700 OPS. That’s a shame, in retrospect, since Bell posted an .837 OPS over the final two months. He wound up with some of the best exit-velocity numbers of his career and also a 16.5% strikeout rate that was his second lowest ever. Statcast gave him an xBA of .270 and an xSLG of .497 for the full season. It doesn’t mean he’ll do it again, but he seems a little more interesting now than he was the previous couple of offseasons.
Prediction: one year, $7 million
72. Jose Quintana (37, SP, Brewers)
Teams seem to really dislike paying Quintana, who posted a 105 ERA+ in 31 starts for the Mets in 2024 but still had to settle for $4 million from the Brewers over the winter. He went on to miss some time last season, but in his 24 starts, he again had a 105 ERA+. Unfortunately, that did come with the worst peripherals of his career, giving teams an excuse to again not want to pay him much this winter.
Prediction: one year, $7 million
73. Miguel Rojas (37, 2B/SS, Dodgers)
Still an excellent defender as he heads into his late-30s, Rojas has been worth 5.5 bWAR in 217 games for the Dodgers the last two years. He indicated last month that he’s looking to play just one more season, and he’ll probably beat his previous career-high salary of $5 million in the process.
Prediction: one year, $7 million
74. Tyler Kinley (35, RP, Braves)
The Braves knew they were out of the race at the deadline, but they went ahead and picked up Kinley from the Rockies anyway, partly because of his reasonable $5 million option for 2026. He went on to allow just two earned runs in 25 innings for Atlanta, so that option is most likely getting picked up.
Prediction: option exercised
75. Walker Buehler (31, SP, Phillies)
Buehler returned from Tommy John surgery in 2024 averaging 95 mph with his fastball, which was down about 1.5 mph from his peak but almost right where he was in his best season in 2021. If anything, he figured to be a little stronger last season. Instead, he dropped another one mph on the fastball and struck out only 16.5 batters he faced on his way to posting a 5.45 for the Red Sox. He did allow just one run over 13 2/3 innings in three late appearances for the Phillies, but there was nothing there to suggest genuine improvement. A turnaround is hardly impossible, but the stuff has to get better.
Prediction: one year, $7 million
76. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (31, INF, Blue Jays)
It’s kind of amazing to think it was just a year ago that the non-contending Blue Jays sent Kiner-Falefa to the sort-of-contending Pirates at the trade deadline. IKA seemed on his way to a career-year at that point -- he was hitting .292/.338/.420 for the Jays -- but he’s mostly struggled since, hitting .262/.297/.334 with particularly subpar exit velocity numbers last season. He makes more sense as a utilityman for a contender than as a starter on a lesser team.
Prediction: one year, $6.5 million
77. Patrick Corbin (36, SP, Rangers)
Experimenting with a cutter in 2024 didn’t pay immediate dividends for Corbin, but he started throwing the pitch harder last season and was stunningly competent in finishing with a 4.40 ERA in 155 innings. He actually seems like a better bet than most of the other innings eaters at this point.
Prediction: one year, $6.5 million
78. Austin Hays (30, OF, Reds)
The one-year deal Hays signed with the Reds a year ago included a mutual $12 million option for 2026, but the Reds should opt out of that after he missed one-third of the season and finished with a middling 105 OPS+ in 2025. While Hays will likely land another starting job, he’s probably more useful as a platoon guy against left-handers than as a full-timer at this point.
Prediction: one year, $6 million
79. Colin Rea (35, SP, Cubs)
A middle reliever initially after being brought in as rotation insurance, Rea ended up making 27 starts for the Cubs and posting a 3.95 ERA. He also allowed just one run in 7 2/3 innings over three postseason appearances. The Cubs can bring him back for $6 million or buy him out for $750,000. One imagines they’ll choose the former, even if they again don’t plan to pencil him into the rotation.
Prediction: option exercised
80. Max Kepler (33, OF, Phillies)
Kepler’s longstanding BABIP issues went away for two years; he finished at .294 between 2023 and ’24, compared to .239 over the previous five years. They resurfaced with the Phillies, though, as he came in at just .232 on his way to hitting .216/.300/.391 last season. His offensive projections really haven’t changed much, but now that he’s more of an average corner outfielder than a Gold Glove contender cuts into his value.
Prediction: one year, $6 million
81. Michael Kopech (29, RP, Dodgers)
Kopech was a big part of the Dodgers’ bullpen during their 2024 World Series run, but he was limited to 11 innings last season by a shoulder injury early and then knee problems late. He was also often terribly wild while on the mound; between the majors and his Triple-A rehab assignments, he walked 33 of the 122 batters he faced (27%). Still, with his ceiling, he’ll get some offers.
Prediction: one year, $6 million
82. Michael Lorenzen (34, SP, Royals)
Lorenzen’s 4.64 ERA for the Royals was his high mark in four seasons since he retired to starting, but his 21% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate were both nice improvements.
Prediction: one year, $6 million
83. Phil Maton (33, RP, Rangers)
Maton was unable to lock down the closer’s role in Texas after being picked up from the Cardinals at the deadline, but he still had a pretty terrific season overall, finishing with a 2.79 ERA and 33% strikeout rate. His career strikeout rate coming into the year was 26%, and he’d been down to 23% in 2024. Still, he doesn’t necessarily need the big strikeout numbers to be effective; of the 385 pitchers to throw 300 innings since 2017 (the year he entered the league), he has the fourth lowest hard-hit rate at 29.8%.
Prediction: one year, $6 million
84. Gregory Soto (31, RP, Mets)
Soto’s left arm is getting a bit less lively, with his velocity having dropped 1.5 mph over the last two years, and he hasn’t posted a sub-4.00 ERA since 2022. Still, his peripherals are fine, and lefties who strike batters out are always in demand.
Prediction: one year, $6 million
85. Hunter Harvey (31, RP, Royals)
Harvey has pitched a total of 185 innings as a major leaguer, but the oft-injured former first-round pick of the Orioles has racked up the six years of service time he needed to qualify for free agency. He had a 3.29 ERA and a 27% strikeout rate in 151 innings from 2022-24 before being held to 10 2/3 innings by shoulder and abdominal injuries last season. He’s a flier for a large-market team that can hope he’s healthy at the right time of year.
Prediction: one year, $5.5 million
86. Tyler Anderson (36, SP, Angels)
Anderson’s three-year, $39 million deal with the Angels concluded with a 4.56 ERA in 2023 and a 4.53 ERA overall. His strikeout rate is dropping and he’s now one of the league’s most extreme flyball pitchers, so he’s probably rotation filler for a non-contender at this point.
Prediction: one year, $5 million
87. Miles Mikolas (37, SP, Cardinals)
Mikolas made 98 starts for the Cardinals while earning $55.75 million the last three years, but those came with a 4.98 ERA. The team that signs him to eat innings at the back of the rotation should be expecting more of the same.
Prediction: one year, $5 million
88. Rhys Hoskins (33, 1B, Brewers)
Hoskins was hitting .242/.340/.428 in 318 plate appearances in July when a bad throw from Joey Ortiz at short led to a collision at first base that left him with a sprained thumb. Once healthy, he was declared obsolete by a Brewers team that had given his at-bats to Andrew Vaughn and Jake Bauers. With just a 102 OPS+ in the two seasons since he returned from a torn ACL, he’s probably not going to get much of a look from contenders.
Prediction: one year, $5 million
89. John Means (32, SP, Guardians)
The Guardians paid for Means’ Tommy John rehab in the hopes that he might be able to contribute at the end of the year and got themselves a $6 million option for 2026 as a bonus. However, while Means did return to the mound in mid-August, his stuff wasn’t quite up to par, and went unpromoted to the majors after posting a 7.97 ERA in five Triple-A starts. His option will likely be declined, but he still might have some upside if he’s stronger this year.
Prediction: one year, $5 million
90. Michael Conforto (33, OF, Dodgers)
The Dodgers looked at Conforto’s exit velocity numbers from his final year with the Giants and decided it was worth paying him $17 million last season. It turned out to be one of their worst calls of the decade, but as ineffective as Conforto was in hitting .199/.305/.333 and playing subpar defense in left field, his exit velocity numbers remained solid; Statcast gave him an xBA of .246 and an xSLG of .428. He probably won’t draw much interest from contenders this time around, but he could bounce back.
Prediction: one year, $5 million
91. Rob Refsnyder (35, OF, Red Sox)
Never able to establish himself in his twenties, Refsnyder turned into the ideal platoon outfielder in Boston, hitting .276/.364/.440 while primarily starting against lefties the last four years. He even had his best exit velocity numbers to date in 2025, finishing with a 52% hard-hit rate and a 12% barrel rate. He’ll probably stay put in Boston, but there should be widespread interest.
Prediction: one year, $5 million
92. Lane Thomas (30, OF, Nationals)
A fine regular for the Nationals in 2023, Thomas has cratered since, hitting .237/.309/.400 in 2024 and then coming in at just .160/.246/.272 in 39 games during a 2025 campaign in which he struggled with plantar fasciitis. If healthy, he can help a team as a platoon corner outfielder against lefties. He’s hit .292/.359/.500 versus southpaws and .220/.287/.383 against righties over the course of his career.
Prediction: one year, $5 million
93. Jordan Montgomery (32, SP, Brewers)
Montgomery’s market wasn’t what he thought it would be after he helped pitch the Rangers to a championship in 2023, so he took a short-term deal that couldn’t have worked out much worse; he had a disastrous first season in Arizona and then underwent Tommy John surgery in March that will probably cost him at least the first month or two of 2026. He still makes for an intriguing stash.
Prediction: one year, $5 million
94. Martín Pérez (34, SP, White Sox)
Pérez missed much of the year with an elbow injury and then also had his shoulder act up at the end of the season, but he was surprisingly effective while on the mound, posting a 3.54 ERA in 10 starts and one relief appearance. Durability hadn’t been much of an issue previously, so another one-year deal in the $5 million range seems appropriate.
Prediction: one year, $5 million
95. Pierce Johnson (34, RP, Braves)
Johnson gave the Braves a 3.36 ERA over 115 1/3 innings in return for their $14 million investment two years ago. Now the team can keep him around for a third year at another $7 million or buy him out for $250,000. With the decline in his strikeout rate (33% in 2022-23, 28% in 2025, 25% in 2025), the guess here is that he wouldn’t command quite that much on the open market.
Prediction: one year, $5 million
96. Luis Rengifo (29, INF/OF, Angels)
While getting his most playing time to date, Rengifo came in at just .238/.287/.335 in 541 plate appearances for the Angels last season. If some team buys into his improved metrics at second base, maybe he’ll land a starting job. He’d previously graded out as below average everywhere he played.
Prediction: one year, $5 million
97. Chris Paddack (30, SP, Tigers)
With his formerly excellent changeup betraying him, Paddack has mustered just a 5.22 ERA and an 18% strikeout rate the last two years. He’d be more interesting in the pen than in the rotation at this point, and if he’s willing to market himself as a reliever, it’d probably help his payday.
Prediction: one year, $5 million
98. Tommy Kahnle (36, RP, Tigers)
Kahnle’s big ERA spike in 2025 was partly the product of a three-appearance run in July in which he gave up nine runs while getting three outs. He had a 2.84 ERA before that and a 3.75 ERA afterwards. Still, his changeup velocity has dropped about three mph these last three years, suggesting the end is coming soon.
Prediction: one year, $5 million
99. Kirby Yates (39, RP, Dodgers)
Yates followed up a brilliant season in Texas with a year in which he served three stints on the IL and amassed a 5.23 ERA in 41 1/3 innings for the Dodgers. He might choose to hang up his spikes at age 39, but the 29% strikeout rate this year says he remains a possibility to help a contender.
Prediction: one year, $5 million
100. José Leclerc (32, RP, Athletics)
Leclerc was limited to just 10 appearances in April after signing a one-year, $10 million deal with the A’s last offseason. A lat strain put him on the injured list, and when his rehab failed to progress, he underwent surgery in July. As he returns to free agency, he’ll need to remind teams that he had a 3.36 ERA and a 29% strikeout rate from 2022-24.
Prediction: one year, $5 million
▶ Best of the Rest
$4 million-$4.5 million: Christian Vázquez, Paul Sewald, Miguel Andujar, Griffin Canning, Mitch Garver, Amed Rosario, Dylan Moore, Kiké Hernández, Yoán Moncada, Andrew McCutchen, Aaron Civale, Shawn Armstrong, Jonathan Loáisiga, Danny Coulombe, Wandy Peralta, Taylor Rogers, Caleb Thielbar, Justin Wilson, Jon Gray
$3 million-$3.5 million: Hoby Milner, Gary Sánchez, Andrew Heaney, James McCann, Ty France, Marcus Stroman, José Urquidy, Liam Hendriks, Adam Frazier, Jorge Mateo, Tommy Pham, Jesse Winker, Randal Grichuk, Jakob Junis, Scott Barlow, Luis García, Ryne Stanek, Andrew Chafin, Caleb Ferguson, Tim Hill, Sean Newcomb
