Category: Baseball

After last night’s damp, cold, and miserable blowout loss, the Colorado Rockies find themselves tied at a game each in their series with the Texas Rangers. Today, with the weather slightly warmer and slightly sunnier—though there is a chance for rain—the Rockies will aim for the series win. However, no dogs will be in attendance.

Making the start for the Rockies is Kyle Freeland. The local left-handed veteran has struggled immensely since his return from the injured list. After starting the season with a 2.30 ERA until left shoulder soreness sidelined him, Freeland’s ERA has ballooned to 7.22 over his last four starts. His last three outings have been particularly difficult, with him allowing at least eight hits and six earned runs in each game.

Freeland’s last time out against the Arizona Diamondbacks saw him last just 3.2 innings while giving up seven earned runs on eight hits. He issued four walks for the first time since 2023 and there was a noticeable decrease in his fastball velocity from 92-93 MPH all the way down to 87 MPH.

On the mound for the Rangers is the right-handed Jack Leiter, who enters today’s game with a 4.35 ERA in nine starts with 55 strikeouts. Leiter’s strikeout stuff has been fairly effective this season with 10 SO/9, but walks have also been an issue. He has issued eight free passes over his last two starts. His last time out was his best start of the season, allowing just one earned run on three hits in seven innings against the Houston Astros. However, he did walk three and give up a home run.

Leiter has faced the Rockies just once before, where he gave up one earned run on two hits and three walks over six innings and struck out five batters. His arsenal this season consists of a four-seam fastball averaging around 96 MPH, as well as a changeup, a slider, a curveball, and a cutter that all have whiff rates above 30%.

First Pitch: 1:10 PM MDT

TV: Rockies TV

Radio: KOA 850 AM/94.1 FM; KNRV 1150 (Spanish)

Rangers SB Nation site:Lone Star Ball

Lineups:

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Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies

Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 2:10 PM CDT (105.3 The Fan / Rangers Sports Network)

Coors Field

RHP Jack Leiter vs. LHP Kyle Freeland

Go Rangers!

Maybe it’s the anticipation of having waited until nearly June to face them for the first time, but this series against the San Diego Padres has more than lived up to incredibly high expectations. A couple of days after seeing the Friars’ ace completely shut the high-powered Dodgers down, now it’s time to face probably one of the key figures in making this San Diego team one capable of competing for the NL West crown—well, at least so far. Randy Vásquez’s breakout is partially holding this rotation together in the absence of the currently sidelined Nick Pivetta, and his 2.68 ERA speaks for itself.

Vásquez isn’t exactly a new kid on the block, and he put up pretty respectable numbers last year, but it’ll be the first taste of his new version for the Dodgers. Vásquez has benefited from increased velocity to take a fastball that was surrendering a .253 batting average last year to a .182 mark in 2026. His 22.4% strikeout rate isn’t anything to write home about in a vacuum, but considering where he was just the season prior (13.77%), it’s a massive improvement.

The hero of last night’s dramatic win that saw the Dodgers score a run against Mason Miller without recording a hit versus the fireballer, Andy Pages, had fond memories of facing previous versions of Vázquez. Pages needed just six career at-bats against him to go deep twice, more than any other Dodger has. Still focused on Vásquez, not only does he lead San Diego with five wins, but the Friars have come out on the right side of the scoreboard in all but one of his nine starts.

It figures that the Dodgers won’t need a whole lot offensively to take care of this one, not if Shohei Ohtani carries on pitching the way he has. And they’ll certainly need him to, having pushed the bullpen quite a bit in that 5-4 win last night with Emmet Sheehan completing just four innings.

Wednesday’s game info

• Teams: Dodgers at Padres
• Ballpark: Petco Park, San Diego
• Start time: 5:40 p.m. PT
• TV: SportsNet LA
• Radio: AM 570 (English), KTNQ 1020 AM (Spanish)

On May 5, the Kansas City Royals were flying high. Winners of five straight games and nine of their last 11, the Royals had clawed their way out of a 7-16 start of the season all the way to a 17-19 record.

The Hawaiian Bros promotion went like this: if the Royals scored six or more runs at home, rewards members could claim a free classic plate lunch the next day. Straightforward and valuable, it was a good promotion. During their aforementioned hot streak, the Royals triggered the promo five times, including four games in a row. Of course, Kansas Citians jumped on the deal, as a May 4 article from the Kansas City Star illuminated:

A Hawaiian Bros representative says it has served over 42,000 meals and added over 24,000 rewards members since the beginning of the promotion. The restaurant said that employees inside its Kansas City-area locations have done a good job handling the increased traffic. They will continue to make adjustments to support them as needed to ensure the customers are getting what they came for.

“Royals fans are incredibly enthusiastic which gave us confidence that this could be a meaningful way to celebrate together and be a part of something bigger,” Hawaiian Bros said.

But a mere one day after that quote from the Star, Hawaiian Bros changed their tune. While a promo remained, Hawaiian Bros moved to make it less valuable, changing the terms of the deal. This particular nerf made, essentially, one free meal into two half-priced meals. Hawaiian Bros made the following announcement:

Well… this got a little out of hand.

When we launched Plates for Plates with the Kansas City Royals, we hoped for some fun, a little buzz, and a few free plates along the way.

Safe to say… you guys took it from there.

You packed our restaurants, lit up social media, and turned this into something way bigger than a promotion. And honestly, we’ve loved every second of it.

But man… it’s been WILD. Our restaurant teams have been absolutely crushed in the best possible way, working around the clock to keep up with the response, the lines, and the wave after wave of Royals fans showing up hungry.

So to keep Plates for Plates sustainable, exciting, and alive for the long haul, we’re making an adjustment.

Beginning immediately:

When the Royals plate six or more runs at home, HB Rewards members will unlock a FREE Classic Plate Lunch with the purchase of a Plate Lunch the next day.

The celebration continues. The tradition continues. And the spirit of Plates for Plates absolutely continues.“

Now, when the Star posted their article about the promotion on May 4, the Royals had scored six or more runs 41% of the time. They noted that “a representative with the restaurant said it should only happen about 20% of the time.”

Well, guess what? Since Hawaiian Bros announced they’d be taking back their original promotion, the Royals have scored six runs precisely zero (0) times in 13 games. They’ve now scored six or more runs in eight of 25 home games, dipping total “six run ratio” to 32%.

Hawaiian Bros makes good food and a BOGO deal for a classic plate is a solid deal by itself. However, it is clearly a lesser deal than the original, as the BOGO deal basically pushes out single H-Bros rewards members who don’t have anybody to eat the other plate. And while I know this article is a little tongue in cheek, this whole event shows that Hawaiian Bros should never have entered into the promotion game in the first place. Sometimes, you go through stretches where you’re giving out more free food than other times. It all evens out in the end, as we’re seeing here.

The only way back to glory is for Hawaiian Bros to restore the original promotion. They won’t, of course, because they lack gumption and inspiration. In any case, it’s The Curse of the Bros right now. I’ll think twice about going there this summer—unless the Royals score 6 or more runs at home, that is.

Well, this has certainly been an eventful series so far! The Atlanta Braves bounced back on Tuesday evening from what was absolutely their worst loss of the season on Monday night and now they’ll surely like their chances now that Chris Sale is starting tonight’s game against the Miami Marlins.

Chris Sale and Bryce Elder (!) have been the two most consistent hurlers in Atlanta’s rotation so far this season, so it’s always good news whenever either of thee two get the ball. With that being said, Sale’s going to need some help — he’s pitched well enough to win in both of his past two starts against the Dodgers and Cubs but in those series wins, those wound up being the two losses for the Braves as they scored a grand total of one (1) run in both of those games. I’m hoping that this won’t be the start of an unfortunate (yet somewhat familiar) trend where a great pitcher gets barely any run support so hopefully we’ll see the Braves do some damage against Janson Junk and the rest of Miami’s pitching staff.

The Braves might be catching Janson Junk at a good time, though. Junk has given u[ at least three runs in four of his nine starts so far and two of those starts were his most recent ones. He got tagged for four runs over six innings against the Nationals on May 9 and then he got absolutely tagged for seven runs over 5.2 innings by the Rays five days ago. If the Braves can avoid falling into a ground ball vortex against Junk then they could do some work in this game if he continues to stay in the form that he’s currently in.

What is a bit concerning is how the previous encounters between these two teams went for both pitchers. Janson Junk last saw the Braves in June of last season and he went five innings and only gave up one run in a game that Miami ended up winning comfortably. Meanwhile, Chris Sale’s last start against Miami went very poorly as it was back in that early period of April 2024 where we were wondering if this was “it” for Sale. The good news is that Sale has been fantastic ever since that bump in the road early on and a lot can change between now and a year ago — much less two years.

Because of that time discrepancy, a lot of Miami’s hitters have little-to-no experience against Sale and hopefully that’ll lend itself to Sale’s advantage during this particular contest. The same could be said about Junk and the Braves, though. Mike Yastrzemski has the most experience against Junk — a grand total of five ABs and an inauspicious slash line of zeroes across the board. Ronald Acuña Jr. has two hits in three previous plate appearances against Junk because of course Ronald Acuña Jr. has a good record against [insert any Marlins pitcher that you, the reader, would like here].

With the way this series has gone so far, it’s fair to assume that anything can happen in this game. We could see the Braves absolutely tear into Janson Junk and pick up where they left off during the latter stages of yesterday’s game. We could also see Otto Lopez continue to make things very tough on the Braves during this series and we could have another nervy evening on our hands. Either way, it would be nice to see the Braves win this one so that they don’t have to go into tomorrow’s series finale having to salvage a split. Let’s see what happens, y’all.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Wednesday, May 20, 6:40 p.m. ET

Location: loanDepot Park, Miami, FL

TV: BravesVision

Streaming: MLB.tv

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM

While we wait for the Cubs to (hopefully) salvage one game of their series against the Brewers, I thought I’d take another look at how the team and its individual players are doing with ABS challenges.

Through Tuesday’s game, Cubs fielders (almost all catchers) are fourth-best in MLB at successful challenges, getting 68 percent correct (39 of 57). The Tigers (74 percent) lead MLB, then the Reds and Diamondbacks are also ahead of the Cubs. Bringing up the rear of the list are the White Sox hitters (44 percent).

Cubs hitters, though, have not been as successful. They rank in the middle of the pack (14th) at 48 percent success (21 of 44 successful challenges by Cubs batters). The Texas Rangers lead with 63 percent success, and Brewers hitters are last with just a 32 percent success rate. The Brewers are also near the bottom in number of challenges by hitters, with only 32, which ranks 29th. The Padres have had just 29 challenges by hitters.

As for players, Cubs catcher Carson Kelly is the most successful fielder of any who has challenged more than five times (there are five catchers, all at 100 percent, with five or fewer challenges, including former Cub P.J. Higgins, 4 for 4). Kelly has challenged 25 times and was correct 21 times, for an 84 percent success rate. Miguel Amaya has a 62 percent success rate (18 correct of 29) and Moisés Ballesteros is 0-for-3 (after being pretty good at challenging during Spring Training).

Cubs hitters, though — not so much. Only two Cubs hitters has a perfect 100 percent challenge rate — Kelly and Matt Shaw, both 1 for 1.

Nico Hoerner is 2 for 6 challenging, Amaya 1 for 3, Alex Bregman 4 for 9. The best Cubs hitter at challenging is Seiya Suzuki, who is 2 for 4. All of these, of course, are very small sample sizes.

As I’ve written previously, I like the challenge system. It adds some strategy to the game — teams and players are learning, for example, that it’s almost never a good idea to challenge in the first inning, or early in a scoreless game with nobody on base. Fans at the ballparks like it, and it’s definitely getting rid of some of the most egregiously bad calls. I also think it’s making umpires better, because now they have real-time evidence of how they are getting calls wrong — or right.

Will we ever have full ABS? Maybe, but I think that’s years away, if ever. I wrote about that in this article here last month. In the meantime, it appears the ABS system, and perhaps the strike zone itself, might need some tweaking. But in general, I think it’s working as expected — and very well.

You can find all the ABS stats at this Baseball Savant page.

Most news these days (and, let’s be honest, the past few seasons) feels like it’s been more of the, “You’ll never guess which Brave is going on the Injured List this time!” variety, but this afternoon, I get to make a post with the opposite. Yes, Eli White is back after a brief stay on the concussion IL, which means we bid temporary and possibly permanent (but probably temporary) adieu to Jose Azocar.

White returns to a pretty disappointing line that features a 76 wRC+ and -0.1 fWAR in 62 PAs. After a nice-ish half-season in 2025 (career high 0.7 fWAR in 271 PAs with a career-high .310 xwOBA that he underhit), he’s struggled on both sides of the ball, including a few costly defensive lapses. Still, he made a great play against the Dodgers that helped secure a win, though it did shake him up enough to warrant the concussion IL stay in the first place. He will return to a platoon-ish situation with Mike Yastrzemski, and will potentially garner additional starts in the outfield to the extent that Mauricio Dubon moves back to the infield for whatever reason.

Jose Azocar has had a romp in White’s absence, getting 16 PAs across nine games and garnering 0.2 fWAR via a .373 wOBA on a .300 xwOBA (heh) along with some nice defensive efforts. This is the sixth time in his career he’s been designated for assignment, and the third time the Braves have done so… so he’ll be back. Maybe. Probably. Despite the nice handful of PAs, Azocar has a 104 wRC+ at Triple-A Gwinnett this season and a 77 wRC+ in the majors for his career.

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Trey Yesavage baffled New York Yankees batters in his lone career outing against them in the playoffs last October, and I expect another strikeout-filled outing for the Toronto Blue Jays starter tonight. 

Read on to see why with my Blue Jays vs. Yankees predictions and MLB Picks on Wednesday, May 20. 

Blue Jays vs Yankees predictions

Blue Jays vs Yankees best bet: Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 strikeouts (-140)

Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Trey Yesavage has picked up right where he left off last postseason, as one of the hardest pitchers to hit in baseball. 

He’s got a 1.40 ERA with 21 strikeouts in just four appearances, going Over tonight’s 5.5 posted total in three straight, largely thanks to a 90th-percentile whiff rate. 

I’ll bet on him doing it for a fourth straight game tonight in a matchup that favors him immensely. 

The New York Yankees own the seventh-worst strikeout rating in all of baseball, with the fifth-worst against the splitter, specifically. 

Additionally, Yesavage has just one career start against the Yankees where he went 5 1/3 innings of hitless baseball with 11 Ks.

COVERS INTEL: Yesavage ranks in the 97th percentile with a .162 xBA.

Blue Jays vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)

I’ll continue to ride with Yesavage for the second leg on my SGP and take Under 2.5 earned runs allowed. He’s been Under that number in all four of his starts this season. He also limits hard contact, respectively ranking in the 88th and 99th percentiles in barrel and hard-hit rates. 

For the final leg of my SGP, I’ll take Daulton Varsho to go Over 0.5 hits tonight. He’s heating up with hits in four straight, totaling nine in that stretch. He’s also 1-for-4 lifetime against Cam Schlittler.

Blue Jays vs Yankees SGP

• Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 strikeouts
• Trey Yesavage Under 2.5 earned runs
• Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 hits

Blue Jays vs Yankees home run pick: Daulton Varsho (+405)

This will be a half-unit wager as Schlittler has only surrendered two home runs this season. 

However, he does give up some hard contact, ranking in the 42nd percentile in opponent hard-hit rate. 

Varsho owns a 60% hard-hit rate against the four-seam fastball, which Schlittler uses most often against lefties. 

Yankee Stadium is a hitters' park, so if Varsho gets hold of one over the plate, he will take it for a ride.

Blue Jays vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Toronto +150 | New York -175
• Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-140) | New York -1.5 (+120)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)

Blue Jays vs Yankees trend

The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 away games (+6.40 Units / 24% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Yankees.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Yankees and game info

Blue Jays vs Yankees latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Yankees weather

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Following a thrilling first-round SEC Tournament victory over Ole Miss, Missouri baseball saw its postseason run come to a bittersweet end in Hoover, Ala. The Tigers were unable to carry their momentum into Wednesday morning’s second-round matchup against the Bulldogs, falling short in a seven inning run-rule loss.

Despite the final score, sophomore left-hander Brady Kehlenbrink provided a memorable performance on the mound for the Tigers. Kehlenbrink racked up eight strikeouts in just 4.1 innings of work, keeping Mizzou within striking distance before the Bulldog’s offense came alive.

Early Fireworks and Strong Pitching Kept Tigers Close

The game started with high hopes and plenty of momentum for Mizzou. Tigers slugger Kam Durnin wasted no time getting Mizzou on the board, launching a two-seamer to center field for an early run. After homering last night, Durnin has now gone deep in back-to-back games.

On the mound, Kehlenbrink started strong for the Tigers in the first, with a strikeout on the board and no runners allowed on base. Kaden Peer added another hit for the Tigers in the second, lining a single after recording one against Ole Miss. 

The Bulldogs picked up their first hit of the game on a single from freshman Jacob Parker, but Kehlenbrink answered with another strikeout for the Tigers. Moments later, Mateo Serna nearly threw Parker out at second, though the call was overturned after review. 

Chris Patterson then misplayed a ground ball at third for a fielding error before Ryder Woodson launched a three-run homer, making that his sixth of the season and putting the Bulldogs ahead 3-1. Kehlenbrink dealt again with his third strikeout of the day to end the inning.

Middle-Inning Grind

Pierre Seals got the ball rolling again for the Tigers in the third with a single to left. He then tried to steal second, but came off the bag and was called out. Kehlenbrink responded by throwing a groundout and back-to-back strikeouts, giving the Tigers the 1-2-3 inning they needed.

The Bulldogs dealt a 1-2-3 inning for themselves in the fourth. Kehlenbrink then deals his third and fourth strikeout in a row for the Tigers, retiring seven straight with a popout to end the inning.

Peer snagged his second hit of the day on a single up the middle to get the fifth inning started for the Tigers. Patterson then hits a sac-fly to right, bringing Peer home and changing the score to 3-2 Mississippi.

Kehlenbrink threw back-to-back walks before throwing his eighth strikeout of the day. Soon after, the Bulldogs extended their lead to 4-2, with a single up the middle bringing in a run. Kehlenbrink walked another, before Sam Rosand came in as a reliever for the Tigers with the bases loaded. Rosand then threw a strikeout, ending the fifth with a groundout he scooped up and threw to first.

Durnin launched a single to right, his second hit of the game, but the inning ended with no runs added for the Tigers. 

Mizzou’s Fate Sealed in Sixth

The definitive blow came in the bottom of the sixth inning when a 4-2 deficit unraveled for the Tigers. Trouble came as Vytas Valincius hit a homer for the Bulldogs, extending their lead to 5-2. Mississippi added two more singles, the second one from a fielding error by third baseman Chris Patterson, before the Tigers headed to the bullpen.

Isaiah Salas came in for Rosand with the bases loaded and one out. From there, a batter was hit-by-pitch, extending Mississippi’s lead to 6-2, and another walk drove in another run to make the score 7-2. 

Pierre Seals was unable to catch a ball in right, adding another run for Mississippi, and another run was added on a groundout. Finally, Valincius hit a three-run homer, his second home run of the day, extending their lead to a staggering 12-2 before Salas managed a strikeout to end the frame.

Starting pitcher Tomas Valincius for Mississippi ended his day after six innings with eight strikeouts. 

The Tigers then started off the seventh with a walk on Donovan Jordon, but Mississippi managed a double play, ending the game for the Tigers on a run-rule loss.

Memorable 2026 Season 

Mizzou finished its 24-31 campaign with monumental moments that established a solid foundation for the future of Missouri baseball.

The Tigers managed to win their home series against Vanderbilt, marking their first SEC home series victory since 2024 and their first series win over the Commodores since 2018. Alongside this, they took the series against No.24 Kentucky in Lexington, claiming their first road series win against an SEC opponent since 2021. Although the season is over, these series wins provided plenty of optimism for the program moving forward.

Ralphy Velazquez is playing his first Triple-A game as this post is published.

Since 2017, the best hitters with 200 or more plate appearances at Double-A’s Eastern League at 20 years old or younger, are:

Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. – 171 wRC+, 10.2/7.9 K/BB%, 11.6 Swinging Str. %, 38/43 Fly/Pull ball %
Kevin McGonigle – 162 wRC+, 12.6/16 K/BB%, 7.9 Swinging Str. %, 35/42 FB/PB %
Ezequiel Tovar – 153 wRC+, 21.7/8.5 K/BB%, 15.2 Swinging Str. % 39/39 FB/PB %
Rafael Devers – 150 wRC+, 17.2/9.7 K/BB%, 10.6 Swinging Str. % 35/42 FB/PB %
Francisco Alvarez – 150 wRC+, 24/12.2 K/BB%, 16.1 Swinging Str. %, 45/53 FB/PB %
Riley Greene – 143 wRC+, 27.3/11 K/BB%, 11.7 Swinging Str. %, 30/37 FB/PB %

By comparison, during his time as a 20 year-old at Double-A:
Ralphy Velazquez: 171 wRC+, 17/12 K/BB%, 11.9 Swinging Str. %, 34/34 FB/PB %

It’s official. We have 90% of Vladimir Guerrero. Bring him up and let’s ride.

In all seriousness, Velazquez has more to prove, of course, now that he’s been called up to Triple-A. He should work on pulling the ball more than he does and attempt to add some lift, if possible. But, folks, we cannot sell short how exciting of a hitter he is. At the age of 20, he is showing advanced professional skill against the much more advanced pitching of Double-A. IF (big “if”) he can keep some semblance of this up now that he is in Columbus, this should begin to look like a top 20 to top 10 prospect in MLB, even if limited to first base. You can see above that being an excellent hitter at Double-A at 19-20 does not make becoming a major league all-star hitter a sure thing… but it’s about as close as you can get.

Should Ralphy play in Cleveland at some point this summer? That will be entirely determined by whether or not he is able to continue to perform well against Triple-A pitching. If so… then I would guess he is going to force the issue in September when rosters expand. Should (knock on wood) any injuries come into play affecting first base/DH, he could get an earlier opportunity, also. This is an exceptionally talented hitter and Guardians fans should be excited.

In baseball, rarely does everything unfold as expected. The unpredictability of baseball is one of its gifts as well as one of its most confounding aspects. The Seattle Mariners were widely believed to be the cream of the AL West crop, projected to win well over 90 games. Who thought they would sit 4 games under .500 and that Cal Raleigh, on Memorial Day, would be on the IL sitting on 1/3 of a season batting .161/.243/.317 with 7 HR?

Projection system were not in love with the A’s rotation, ranking it near the bottom going into the season. Here’s how it is shaping up as we fast approach the 1/3 mark — significant because it’s traditionally when front offices take a hard look at their team and make changes if need be.

Health: Let’s not overlook, with relief, how the A’s starting pitchers have stayed healthy. They opened the season with Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, Aaron Civale, Jacob Lopez, and Luis Morales and none has had to miss a turn, or go to the IL. Morales was replaced by JT Ginn who, despite a brief scare, was able to make his next start and is only getting better.

Now onto performance…

Luis Severino

In a way, Severino has been about as expected: flashing plus stuff, very inconsistent, high pitch/inning counts and high walk totals, prone to giving up runs in flurries, sometimes brilliant.

The A’s may have paid for a front of the rotation SP but what they have is also valuable, just not as valuable, and that is a #4 SP whose 4.45 ERA approximates how he has performed.

Expectations going forward: Probably more of the same as this has been Severino much of his career since his hey days of 2017 and 2018.

Jeffrey Springs

Springs started like gangbusters, hit a rough patch, and then gave the A’s an excellent start against the Giants his last time out. Overall he has pitched like he did in 2025: terrific on the road, less so at home. Springs’ away ERA this season is 3.04 whereas at home, where he has given up 6 of his 8 HRs, it balloons to 4.60.

Expectations going forward: Springs will generally give you a chance to win, but will also require a fair amount of bullpen support as he averages between 5-6 innings/start. Like Severino, Springs is a luxury to have as your #4 SP — and you are pushing your luck to ask him to be more.

He’s also a good one to push back a day if it means starting a road trip instead of finishing a home stand — though unfortunately, Severino’s and Ginn’s struggles at home make it hard to do any clever manipulating.

Aaron Civale

Civale has been great. Using a wide variety of pitches and mixing them up to keep hitters off balance, he has been everything the A’s could have asked for and more. Civale’s 2.70 ERA would rank 7th in the AL if he had enough innings to qualify (he barely misses but will qualify after tonight’s start assuming he lasts at least 2.1 IP).

However, Civale’s success does come with a caveat: all the underlying metrics suggest he is due for a big regression. His xERA is 4.38, his xFIP 4.66, his K rate just 6.75/9 IP. Civale needs to be very fine with his location and he has mostly been so far. He has also been unsustainably terrific with runners on base, stranding 90.3%, far above his career rate of 74.5%.

Expectations going forward: Take nothing away from what Civale has done, but you have to expect some rougher times ahead just naturally from a pitcher whose results so far have greatly exceeded the predicted outcomes.

Jacob Lopez

Ruh roh. What to do with Lopez. Has he pitched his way out of the rotation after failing to complete the 4th inning when staked to a 6-0 lead? As good as Lopez was in 2025 he has been bad in 2026.

The stats which pop out, besides his unsightly 6.14 ERA, are 30 BB in 44 IP and a K rate that has plummeted from 10.97 last season 6.55 this season. Lopez is a mess and while he was given more rope than Morales you have to wonder if the A’s will continue to trot him out every 5th day.

Expectations going forward: With the dreaded 1/3 mark upon us, figure the A’s will shake things up in some way either moving Lopez to the bullpen, where he can compete with Jose Suarez for “lefty who scares you, not opponents, when he is summoned, or to AAA (Lopez has one remaining option). Maybe the A’s just ”stay the course” a while longer with Lopez in the rotation, but don’t count on it as he’s been über-shaky for a long stretch now.

Luis Morales

Morales was terrible in spring training, worse to start the season, and was quickly demoted to AAA — where if it’s even possible, he pitched even worse yet.

Only in his last 3 appearances (out of the bullpen) has Morales started to right the ship a bit, and it’s really more “he hasn’t been terrible”: 4 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K. It has brought his AAA season ERA down to 9.72 with 24 hits in 16.2 IP, 6 of them HRs, along with 13 BB.

Expectations going forward: Morales is still in the A’s future plans, but 2026 might wind up being a “get right” season. I wouldn’t look for a call up to Sacramento any time soon.

JT Ginn

We all know what Ginn did his last start. What’s less obvious is how solid he has been in aggregate, posting a 2.97 ERA. Is it for real? It may just be.

The key is that Ginn has finally figured out how to get LH batters out. Here’s the comparison between 2025 and 2026:

LH batters in 2025: .340/.416/.630, 10 HR in 38 IP

LH batters in 2026: .233/.331/.398, 4 HR in 27.1 IP

That’s worth a “Fosse wow” right there. What hasn’t shifted as much is the huge home/away splits where Ginn, after his no-hit bid, holds a 1.67 ERA on the road but a 5.21 ERA at home.

Expectations going forward: Ginn has historically had trouble staying healthy, but if the arm holds up the A’s might have themselves a gem who has figured out how to leverage his stuff — and with that you can expect that so long as LH batters don’t pose a huge issue for him, the home performance will improve and the home/away splits will move closer to one another.

Overall: The A’s don’t have a lot of SPs who get deep into games — only Ginn has really shown that strength — and there really aren’t front of the rotation arms there unless you buy into Ginn as an emerging staff leader. It’s kind of a “5.1 IP, 2 or 3 ER” group waiting for the arrival of an exciting young arm attached to Gage Jump or Wei-En Lin.

What would you like to see the A’s do, at the 1/3 mark, with this rotation, given who they have in MLB, who they have at AAA, and what the trade market looks like as we head towards trading season? No easy answers here, just an AL West that currently would require only 81 wins to get fitted for a crown.

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The Milwaukee Brewers can complete a sweep of the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday night and we like their chances to do so. 

Here are my Brewers vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks for May 20.

Who will win Brewers vs Cubs today: Brewers ML (+104)

The matchup screams Milwaukee Brewers again. They now have the lowest whiff rate in the sport and a 26% chase rate, also bottom of the league, and that contact-first profile is a problem for Edward Cabrera. 

Cabrera's chase rate is elite, but Brewers hitters don't expand, which forces his game plan into the zone where his stuff plays down. When that happens, his bottom-40 % barrel rate and poor expected ERA come into play.

On the other side, Kyle Harrison has more than enough stuff to slow the Chicago Cubs. I’d play the Brewers to -120.

COVERS INTEL: Edward Cabrera's fastball run value sits in the 10th percentile.

Brewers vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Under 6.5 (-115)

It's a small number, but Wrigley winds loom large again. Gusts could reach up to 25 mph, along with temperatures in the 50s. Thus, before you even get to the handicap, this is the biggest story.

Now, when you think about Kyle Harrison, it gets clearer. His hard hits will suppress ball carry even further, as they sit in the 94th percentile of the sport.

In addition, Cabrera, despite his hard-contact issues, owns a 93rd percentile offspeed run value that helps mitigate damage when the changeup is working. I wouldn't play this past 6.5, but it's good to -125.

Brewers vs Cubs odds

• Moneyline: Brewers +100 | Cubs -120
• Run line: Brewers -1.5 | Cubs +1.5
• Over/Under: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5

Brewers vs Cubs trend

The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+8.50 Units / 33% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cubs.

How to watch Brewers vs Cubs and game info

Brewers vs Cubs latest injuries

Brewers vs Cubs weather

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Well, Mariners fans, I’d be lying if I told you this season was off to an ideal start, or even a good start, or even an average start. At least then they’d be above .500. The team has struggled in all aspects with performance and injuries including, but not limited to, Brendan Donovan, Cal Raleigh, Gabe Speier, Matt Brash, Victor Robles, Carlos Vargas, and Logan Evans. This has led to a variety of patchwork lineups and stopgap fixes in the hopes that they will all return sooner rather than later, and the Mariners’ record has suffered for it.

Despite these issues, the Mariners have had quite a bright spot this year in the form of longtime organization Quad-A player Emerson Hancock. Hancock has had his fair share of pots of coffee, but this most recent one seems to have stuck. Hancock has dominated teams throughout the AL to start the season, posting an impressive 3.02/3.64 ERA/FIP alongside a very solid WHIP of 1.01. It’s come thanks to the absence of poor old Bryce Miller, who has been suffering at the hands of repeated elbow issues since last season. But Miller is now back and healthy, and everyone looks around awkwardly, as it seems Hancock has displaced him. The Mariners reacted with a temporary six-man rotation to test things out, resisting the urge to displace Luis Castillo or Emerson Hancock right away.

Now the Mariners have run this rotation for a week and, with more feedback, have progressed to “piggybacking” Bryce Miller and Luis Castillo together on Tuesday night. While the Mariners ended up walking out with the loss, Miller looked pretty good in his 5 innings, and Castillo seemed serviceable in his two and a third. Jerry Dipoto has already expressed resistance to moving either to the bullpen full-time, as he told reporters recently:

“If you go to the bullpen, you don’t maintain your pitch volume for very long. And that’s the worst thing that could happen to the depth of our starting rotation is taking one of our top six starting pitchers, send them to the bullpen, and then 10 days later, their pitch volume is no longer a factor.”

It’s looking unlikely that either will have an extended stay in the bullpen, so now we have to ask ourselves: should the Mariners run a six-man rotation for the rest of the year? Let us know what you think via the poll and comments below.

Of course, they don’t have to run six men, but if they don’t, then who is the odd man out? Presumably, barring sudden injury (knock on wood), it could be any one of Hancock, Castillo, or Miller. Personally, I think it’s extremely likely that Castillo is moved to mostly long relief/piggyback starts, with the hope they can trade him later this season. Obviously, if they switch him to a full-time reliever, he loses value, as much value as a starter with a 6 ERA can have anyway, so the idea would be to keep him stretched out and available for spot starts and the like until such a time as he can be moved on. But let us know what you think, answer the poll, and leave comments below on your thoughts!

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Mariners fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

Baseball players dream of a two-homer game.

How about a two-homer inning?

Mississippi State outfielder Vytas Valincius lived that dream Wednesday in Hoover, as the Bulldogs rolled in their 2026 SEC Tournament debut 12-2 over Missouri, advancing to tomorrow’s Quarterfinals against top-seeded Georgia.

And Valincius did his damage to break open what was a two-run game.

The Mississippi State outfielder came to the plate to leadoff the bottom of the sixth inning, with the Bulldogs leading 4-2. He attacked the first pitch he saw, a 91-mph fastball over the heart of the plate, and quickly deposited that fastball over both walls in left field:

The blast also set a new single-season record for team home runs at Mississippi State:

But Valincius was just getting started in the sixth, and that new program record would grow soon enough.

Because the Bulldogs batted around in the inning, bringing Valincius to the dish again in the sixth with a pair of runners on the bases.

This time, Valincius homered on a blast to straight-away center:

By the time the inning ended, Mississippi State had a 12-2 inning thanks to an eight-run sixth, and the Bulldogs recorded three outs in the seventh to complete the win via the run rule.

Now the Bulldogs face … the Bulldogs on Thursday, with a spot in the SEC baseball tournament Semifinals on the line.

We’ll see what Valincius has up his sleeves tomorrow.