Marlins vs. Red Sox prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets on August 24

Its late August and the Miami Marlins (67-64) are alive and in the hunt for a playoff berth. They welcome the Boston Red Sox (71-59) to South Florida tonight for the opener of a three-game series. The Marlins sit third in the NL East but more importantly four games behind the Padres for the final Wild Card spot. The Sox sit third in the AL East six games behind the Rays but have a firm hold on the second Wild Card in the AL.

 

The Red Sox arrive in Miami riding a three-game winning streak after completing a successful weekend series against the San Francisco Giants. Boston capped the series with a 5-4 victory yesterday. The offense received a major boost from Nick Sogard, who homered and doubled, while Jake Bennett delivered seven strong innings on the mound. Miami also enters the series after a clean sweep of the Nationals over the weekend. The Marlins completed the sweep yesterday with a 6-2 victory. Joe Mack and Xavier Edwards each drove in a pair to propel the Marlins to the win.

 

Ranger Suarez (5-3, 3.41 ERA) gets the ball for the Red Sox tonight. Across his last five starts, Suárez owns a 4.50 ERA and is coming off a difficult outing against Arizona last Tuesday, when he allowed four earned runs in 5.1 innings. One encouraging sign for Boston is Suárez’s performance on the road this season. The southpaw’s ERA is significantly better away from Fenway – 2.75 vs. 4.14. Miami counters with righty Sandy Alcantara (13-8, 3.46 ERA). The former Cy Young winner has been a workhorse this season accounting for 176.2 innings. His most recent outing came last Wednesday in Philadelphia, where he worked six innings and allowed three runs. He has posted a 1.09 ERA across his last five starts while recording a quality start in all five appearances.

 

Lets dive further into today’s game and find a sweat or two.

 

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

 

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Game Details and How to Watch: Red Sox vs. Marlins

 

  • Date: Monday, August 24, 2026
  • Time: 6:40PM EST
  • Site: loanDepot Park
  • City: Miami, FL
  • Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, NESN, Marlins.TV

 

 

Peacock offers one of the most comprehensive live sports streaming lineups available today, bringing together the NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, Premier League, NCAA football, NCAA basketball, golf, motorsports, and major global sporting events in a single service.

 

The Latest Odds: Red Sox vs. Marlins

The latest odds as of Monday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: Boston Red Sox (-124), Miami Marlins (+115)
  • Spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+134), Marlins+1.5 (-162)
  • Total: 7.0 runs

 

Probable Starting Pitchers – Red Sox vs. Marlins for August 24

  • Red Sox: Ranger Suarez
    Season Totals: 113.1 IP, 5-3, 3.41 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 113K, 33 BB
  • Marlins: Sandy Alcantara
    Season Totals: 176.2 IP, 13-8, 3.46 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 131K, 47 BB

Who’s Hot? Who’s Not! Red Sox vs. Marlins

  • Xavier Edwards is the only Marlins’ player to have a hit against Ranger Suarez and he is only 1-6
  • Willson Contreras is 3-10 including 1 HR against Sandy Alcantara in his career
  • Caleb Durbin is 2-2 against Alcantara
  • Nick Sogard is riding a 6-game hitting streak (11-22)
  • Adley Rutschman was 1-9 over the weekend against the Giants
  • Otto Lopez saw his 3-game hitting streak snapped yesterday
  • Xavier Edwards has hit safely in 8 of his last 9 games (11-34)
  • Liam Hicks was 2-7 including 1 HR against the Orioles this past weekend

Top Betting Trends & Insights: Red Sox vs. Marlins

  • The Marlins are 66-65 on the Run Line this season
  • The Red Sox are 63-67 on the Run Line this season
  • The OVER has cashed 63 times in Miami’s 131 games this season (63-64-4)
  • The OVER has cashed 59 times in Boston’s 130 games this season (61-65-4)

 

Expert picks & predictions: Red Sox vs. Marlins for August 24

Rotoworld Bet Best Bet

 

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

 

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

 

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for tonight’s game between the Marlins and the Red Sox:

  • Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Red Sox on the Moneyline.
  • Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Red Sox on the Run Line.
  • Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total OVER 7.0

 

 

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Yordan Alvarez’s Triple Crown bid will have to survive a major challenge from the AL East

As the season winds down, Houston slugger Yordan Alvarez will have to worry about two sets of spoilers.

The first is the more traditional type — teams that will try to beat the Astros in key games and deny them a spot in the postseason.

The other includes individual spoilers — players who could prevent Alvarez from making history as baseball’s next Triple Crown winner.

Alvarez currently leads the American League with a .320 average, 36 home runs and 90 RBIs. If he holds onto the top spot in all three categories, he’d be the first batter to win the Triple Crown since Miguel Cabrera in 2012. The biggest threats Alvarez faces all come from the AL East.

The next-highest batting averages in the AL both belong to Tampa Bay players — Chandler Simpson at .310 and Yandy Díaz at .306. Fortunately for Alvarez, there aren’t any stealth candidates — players with high averages who don’t currently have enough plate appearances to qualify, but would by the end of the season.

The home run race currently is the tightest, with Tampa Bay’s Junior Caminero just one behind with 35. Ben Rice of the New York Yankees has 34. There are times when Alvarez seems like Houston’s only major threat offensively, and he’s been intentionally walked 28 times — way more than Caminero (10) and Rice (four). Those lost opportunities could matter in a close race.

Alvarez’s closest competition in RBIs is Baltimore’s Pete Alonso, who has 85. Alonso recently went on a 14-game hitting streak. Caminero also is in the mix with 83 RBIs.

When Cabrera pulled off the Triple Crown in 2012, he had to hold off Hall of Famers Joe Mauer and Adrian Beltre in batting average, as well as likely Hall of Famer Mike Trout. He finished one homer ahead of Josh Hamilton and Curtis Granderson.

Trivia time

Alvarez broke Jeff Bagwell’s franchise record for intentional walks in a season. Bagwell drew 27 in 1997. Who is in third place on that list for Houston?

Performance of the week

Pete Crow-Armstrong hit a leadoff homer in the bottom of the first and a walk-off shot in the 10th to give the Chicago Cubs a 7-5 win over the White Sox.

The Cubs then won in walk-off fashion again a night later against the White Sox, but were beaten via the walk-off twice in a row by Seattle later in the week. The Cubs have 13 walk-off wins this year, the most in baseball, but the White Sox and Mariners aren’t far behind with 11.

Comeback of the week

Philadelphia was down 4-0 with two outs in the bottom of the ninth before rallying for a 6-4 victory over St. Louis. Edmundo Sosa hit a three-run double, and Bryan De La Cruz hit a single that tied the game. Then Kyle Schwarber won it with his major league-leading 39th homer of the season.

It was the ninth straight victory for the Phillies, who now trail first-place Atlanta only by three games in the NL East. The Braves were 9 1/2 games up less than two weeks ago.

It’s been a bizarre season for Philadelphia, which was 8-18 by late April, then went 48-27, then lost eight of its last games in July before going 16-5 so far in August.

Team of the week

Kansas City was the lone team to go 7-0 over the past week, although the Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers both went 6-0. The Royals took advantage of four games against the dreadful Athletics before sweeping three in a row from a Detroit team that’s chasing a playoff berth.

Last-place Kansas City actually is 36-30 at home this year but has gone 22-44 on the road.

Trivia answer

Rusty Staub drew 24 intentional walks for the Astros in 1968.

Reds vs Giants Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's MLB Game

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Someone has to win as the Cincinnati Reds visit the San Francisco Giants to open a weekday series at Oracle Park.

The Reds have lost three straight series, three of the last four games, and are 3-7 in the last 10. The Giants are even more dismal, riding a four-game losing streak and a 2-8 mark in their last 10.

The Giants are the perfect "get well" team for Cincy. That’s why my Reds vs. Giants predictions and MLB picks have the Reds rolling as -150 favorites on Monday, Aug. 24.

Who will win Reds vs Giants today: Reds -1.5 (+114)

The Cincinnati Reds are 10.5 games better than the San Francisco Giants and have a better road record than the hosts have at Oracle Park.

The Giants are also coming off a cross-country trip after getting swept in Boston over the weekend, while the Reds are in the middle of a West Coast swing. Cincinnati is 37-30 against sub-.500 teams, while the Giants have a losing record against losing teams.

The moneyline is too steep to take the Reds straight up, so we’ll surrender the runs.

San Francisco’s last eight losses have been by an average of three runs, so it’s not a huge sacrifice.

Play to +105.

Covers COVERS INTEL:Chase Burns has not allowed a home run in August, spanning four starts and 23 1/3 innings. Burns has a fastball velocity in the 92nd percentile in MLB, and 31 of the 70 outs he's recorded this month have come via strikeout.

Reds vs Giants Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-121)

The Reds are deploying Burns against a Giants lineup that may be missing half its starters.

Matt Chapman, Marcelo Meyers, and Casey Schmidt are already on the injured list, and now Willy Adames left Sunday’s game after injuring his elbow on a swing and likely won’t play. Meanwhile, Victor Bericoto left the game after crashing into a wall. 

Bryce Eldridge will also miss this series on bereavement leave, meaning the Giants will be scrambling to assemble a lineup of bodies warm enough to swing bats, let alone compete.

The Reds have been shut out twice in the last six games and scored once or fewer five times in the last 10.

Play the Under to -130.

Reds vs Giants home run prediction: Sal Stewart (+561)

Reds first baseman Sal Stewart leads the team with 27 home runs and is two RBI shy of 100 on the year.

The Giants are starting left-hander Carson Whisenhunt, and Stewart destroys southpaws. His .291 average against lefties is 36 points higher than against righties, and his .903 OPS is 124 points higher. He homers every 16.7 at-bats against lefties, compared to every 19.3 against right-handers.

Whisenhunt has a 9.37 ERA, 2.265 WHIP, and .977 OPS against him over the last month. His barrel and hard-hit rates are both well below average, so Stewart should find something to drive against him.

Shawn Krest's 2026 Transparency Record
  • ML/RL bets: 31-37, -2.72 units
  • Over/Under bets: 41-22, +6.64 units

Reds vs Giants weather

Oracle Park will feature winds blowing out toward center field. However, as BallparkPal notes, the effect doesn't translate to more scoring. Instead, expect swirling effects to deaden fly balls and prevent the outward wind from generating much in the way of extra scoring. Temperatures will be in the low 60s.

Reds vs Giants odds

  • Moneyline: Reds -150 | Giants +144
  • Run line: Reds -1.5 (+113) | Giants +1.5 (-117)
  • Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+113) | Under 7.5 (-117)

Reds vs Giants trend

The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 35 games at home (+4.50 Units / 12% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Giants.

How to watch Reds vs Giants and game info

LocationOracle Park, San Francisco, CA
DateMonday, August 24, 2026
First pitch9:45 p.m. ET
TVFS1
Reds starting pitcherChase Burns
(14-2, 2.51 ERA)
Giants starting pitcherCarson Whisenhunt
(3-4, 7.03 ERA)

Reds vs Giants latest injuries

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

MLB wild card standings: Who’s in, who’s out of playoffs going into the week?

The final full week of August begins with one MLB wild-card race deadlocked at the playoff cut line and another featuring several contenders still within striking distance.

In the American League, the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have created breathing room atop the wild-card standings. The final spot is far less secure: The Cleveland Guardians and Texas Rangers enter Monday, Aug. 24, with identical 65-66 records, leaving the projected postseason field vulnerable to changing with virtually every result.

The National League race has more separation, but hardly feels settled. The Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres currently occupy the three wild-card positions. The Arizona Diamondbacks, however, begin the week only two games behind San Diego, with the Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals still trying to remain within reach.

With the regular season ending Sept. 27, every series carries greater weight for teams trying to move into the picture or protect their place in October. Here are the latest MLB wild-card standings, projected playoff matchups and key postseason races in both leagues.

MLB playoff picture: Who would make playoffs if season ended today?

American League playoff field

  • 1. Tampa Bay Rays (East leader) — 77-53
  • 2. Chicago White Sox (Central leader) — 68-62
  • 3. Houston Astros (West leader) — 65-66
  • 4. New York Yankees (No. 1 wild card) — 74-56
  • 5. Boston Red Sox (No. 2 wild card) — 71-59
  • 6. Cleveland Guardians (No. 3 wild card) — 65-66

National League playoff field

  • 1. Milwaukee Brewers (Central leader) — 81-50
  • 2. Los Angeles Dodgers (West leader) — 80-51
  • 3. Atlanta Braves (East leader) — 76-55
  • 4. Chicago Cubs (No. 1 wild card) — 75-56
  • 5. Philadelphia Phillies (No. 2 wild card) — 73-58
  • 6. San Diego Padres (No. 3 wild card) — 71-60

Current matchups in American League

  • Guardians at Astros; Red Sox at Yankees
  • Rays and White Sox would have byes to AL division series

Current matchups in National League

  • Padres at Braves; Phillies at Cubs
  • Brewers and Dodgers would have byes to NL division series

American League wild card standings

Top three wild card teams make the postseason:

  • New York Yankees — 74-56 (+9½ games)
  • Boston Red Sox — 71-59 (+6½ games)
  • Cleveland Guardians — 65-66 (—)
  • Texas Rangers — 65-65 (—)
  • Toronto Blue Jays — 64-68 (1½ games back)
  • Minnesota Twins — 63-68 (2 games back)
  • Baltimore Orioles — 63-68 (2 games back)
  • Seattle Mariners — 62-69 (3 games back)
  • Detroit Tigers — 61-69 (3½ games back)

National League wild card standings

Top three wild card teams make the postseason:

  • Chicago Cubs — 75-56 (+4 games)
  • Philadelphia Phillies — 73-58 (+2 games)
  • San Diego Padres — 71-60 (—)
  • Arizona Diamondbacks — 69-62 (2 games back)
  • Miami Marlins — 67-64 (4 games back)
  • St. Louis Cardinals — 66-66 (5½ games back)

MLB wild card tiebreaker rules

Ties between two teams, per MLB.com:

  1. Head-to-head record
  2. Intradivision record
  3. Intraleague record
  4. Last half of intraleague games: These are the records from intraleague games after the All-Star break.
  5. Last half of intraleague games plus one: Previous intraleague game on the schedule before All-Star break is used and process is repeated until tie is resolved.

When do MLB playoffs start?

  • Wild-card series: Tuesday, Sept. 29 through Thursday, Oct. 1
  • Division series: Saturday, Oct. 3 through Saturday, Oct. 10
  • Championship series: Sunday, Oct. 11 through Tuesday, Oct. 20
  • World Series: Friday, Oct. 23 through Saturday, Oct. 31

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: MLB wild card standings: Who’s in, who’s out of playoffs going into the week?

Monday Morning Minnesota: The “Sweepers Get Swept” Edition

SAN DIEGO, CA - AUGUST 22: Brooks Lee #22 of the Minnesota Twins celebrates with teammates in the dugout after hitting a solo home run in the second inning during the game between the Minnesota Twins and the San Diego Padres at Petco Park on Saturday, August 22, 2026 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Ryan Levy/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

For a tantalizing 24-hour period, the Twins were in the playoffs after sweeping Atlanta. One weekend trip to San Diego later, and those good vibes were gone as the Friars did the sweeping. Fortunately for the Twins, all the other teams vying for that last spot in the Wild Card were similarly mediocre last week, so they only dropped a half-game out of the third wild card spot, compared to last week. This week will start easy with a trip to Sacramento to face the league-worst Athletics, and then the ChiSox will come to town hoping to solidify their hold on the AL Central crown.

The Past Week on Twinkie Town:

Elsewhere in Twins Territory:

In the World of Baseball:

  • With about one month to go in the regular season, the top-four spots in the American League – barring a 2025 Mets-esque collapse – seem pretty certain, with the Rays, White Sox, Yankees, and Red Sox. After that, the Astros and Rangers keep flip-flopping for the AL West lead, and the Guardians currently hold the 3rd wild card spot, although the Blue Jays, Twins, Orioles, Mariners, and even the Tigers (along with whoever doesn’t get the AL West crown) could easily compete for that playoff spot as well.
  • The National League is a bit more neat, with Milwaukee, Los Angeles, and Atlanta still comfortable holding the top spots in their divisions, and then Chicago, Philadelphia, and San Diego rounding out the next three. The Diamondbacks and Marlins seem to be the only other teams really in range, although the Cardinals could surprise us.
  • We’re getting close to award season, and Bradford Doolittle at ESPN looks at who the frontrunners are for the major awards.
  • The 2025 No.3 overall pick, Kade Anderson, made his debut for the Mariners on Saturday and Ryan Blake at Fangraphs evaluates his start and his prospects.
  • Yesterday, Atlanta and Milwaukee faced off in the Little League Classic, and Courtney Hollmon at MLB.com looks at how Michael Harris II delivered for the fans.

Jacob Young has managed to hold off the competition and remain the Nationals center fielder

WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 02: Jacob Young #30 of the Washington Nationals makes a leaping catch to retire Spencer Torkelson #20 of the Detroit Tigers during the fourth inning of game one of a split doubleheader at Nationals Park on July 2, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) | Getty Images

For most of Jacob Young’s time as the Nats starting center fielder, it was assumed that he was destined to be replaced. Young was a 7th round pick and not a very highly touted prospect. With top prospects like Robert Hassell and Dylan Crews coming, Young was just keeping the seat warm until the big boys were ready to take it away.

However, as the bigger names have stagnated, Young has only ascended. This season he is having by far the most complete year of his career. The 27 year old has always been an elite defender in center field, and that remains the case, with Young posting 12 outs above average. Progression with the bat is what has really taken Jacob Young’s game to the next level though.

This season Young has 10 home runs, a feat that was seen as unthinkable for him prior to this year. Following the Nats new hitting philosophy, Young is hitting the ball harder and in the air more often. That is allowing him to do much more damage. His .703 OPS and 95 wRC+ is more than serviceable given his glove.

The idea was that Crews and Hassell would pass Young because their bats were much better. When the new regime came in, most people thought that Crews and Hassell could be two big beneficiaries. However, it was Young’s bat that took the big step, not those highly touted prospects. 

Those two may have more natural ability, but Young seems to be outworking them. That is no knock on their work ethic, more a testament to Young. After having a dreadful offensive season in 2025, he took it upon himself to go to Driveline and totally overhaul his approach to hitting.

That has helped Young become a valuable contributor. Meanwhile, Hassell is out of the organization and Crews is still stuck in neutral. The gritty placeholder now has a firmer place in the team’s future than even Dylan Crews, who was supposed to be a franchise altering player.

In two of the last three seasons now, Young has had 2 win seasons. He may not hit the ball 112 MPH or have top 100 prospect pedigree, but at a certain point you can no longer argue with the production. Right now he is a better hitter and fielder than Dylan Crews.

This season, we have been talking more about his bat, but Young reminded us just how incredible his defense is yesterday. He scaled the wall like spiderman and made an insane acrobatic catch. I don’t think there is a better outfielder at making plays at the wall than Young. Over the past few years, he has made about a dozen plays that have genuinely blown my mind.

When you talk to Young, it is easy to see why he has overachieved his whole career. Even in post-game interviews, he is very thoughtful and curious. He seems like the type that will leave no stone unturned to get better. I remember last year when he showed up to camp jacks. It may have been misguided, but it was an example of him wanting to do whatever it takes to improve.

Seeing how far he has come at the plate just shows you how hard he is working. Last season, I thought about Young similarly to Nasim Nunez, a bench guy at best. This Barry Svrluga tweet summarized my thoughts well.

Almost exactly 12 months later, Young is having a better year than all of those guys. In my mind at least, Young has passed Dylan Crews on the outfield pecking order. Heading into 2027, I would be content with a Lile, Young, Wood outfield, which is not something I thought I would be saying entering this year.

A lot of people have taken what Jacob Young has done this season for granted, but I am not going to. He does not have flashy offensive tools, but he is a good ball player who always brings something to the table. That is more than you can say about the highly touted options who have tried and failed to unseat him.

MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Monday, Aug. 24

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A brand new week is here! Let's kick it off with three of my favorite home run props and predictions for tonight's MLB slate, highlighted by Munetaka Murakami and Kyle Schwarber

Here are my favorite MLB picks for Monday, Aug. 24.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HROdds
White Sox Munetaka Murakami+325
Phillies Kyle Schwarber+307

Home run pick: Munetaka Murakami (+325)

"This guy writes up Munetaka Murakami every single day!"

Correct.

The No. 1 hitter on Batters-Box today is the South Side slugger, and he draws a heavy fly-ball pitcher in Texas Rangers right-hander Kumar Rocker, who has struggled against left-handed hitters all season long.

The last60 left-handed hitters Rocker has faced have generated a 71.1% elevation rate, while owning a .367 xBA, .625 xSLG, and .383 xwOBA against him.

The Chicago White Sox rookie has the team's highest barrel rate over the last 10 games, while posting a .263 ISO and .457 xSLG.

Through 56 elite ratings this season, he has left the yard nearly 34% of the time. He also covers almost 80% of Rocker’s pitch mix.

Take this down to +300.

  • Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: CHSN, RSN

Home run pick: Kyle Schwarber (+307)

Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber is coming off a monster weekend at the dish, looking to keep that momentum rolling into the new week.

Schwarber draws Seattle Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert, who has allowed the last 30 left-handed hitters he has faced to produce a 43% line-drive rate, while owning a .331 xBA and .476 xSLG.

Schwarber owns a .549 xSLG, .302 ISO, 45.5% hard-hit rate, and 18.2% barrel rate over his last 10 games. Across his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, the big fella is generating a 52.4% hard-hit rate and 28.6% barrel rate.

Hard to pass up this price for KYLE SCHWARBER to go yard while he is on this type of heater.

Play to +275.

  • Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: SEAM, NBCSP
Colby Marchio's 2026 Transparency Record
  • HR picks: 108-378, +16.5 units

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Royals Review Reacts Survey – Are the Royals closer than they appear?

Bobby Witt Jr dives for a base, appearing to fly through the air like Superman
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - SEPTEMBER 30: Bobby Witt Jr. #7 of the Kansas City Royals dives into second as he tries to steal in the third inning against the New York Yankeesat Kauffman Stadium on September 30, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Royals fans and fans across the country.

The Royals are red hot; they’ve won eight straight. Even with all of that winning, though, they’ve merely created a second tier of “not in the playoff hunt” by having significantly more wins than the Athletics and Angels, but far fewer than the rest of the American League. Still, I come to you, wanting to dream a little about the playoffs.

So, yes, the Royals aren’t in it. In fact, they’d need to win 23 of their remaining 30 games just to finish the season with a .500 record. That said… a .500 record seems like it would probably be good enough to squeak into the postseason; the Guardians currently hold the final spot while a game below .500. 23 out of 30 would be a .767 winning percentage; that’s a 124-win pace over a full season. That’s ridiculous. But, well, the Royals don’t have to do it over a full season, just over the next month or so. When they started this eight-game winning streak, they needed to win 31 of their last 38 to reach .500, and they’ve played 1.000 since then. Compared to that, 23 out of 30 isn’t that crazy is it?

OK, yeah, it’s still pretty crazy. But here’s a question for you: how many more games would the Royals have to win in a row before it stopped seeming crazy? 10 in a row would mean they needed to win 21 of their final 28; that’s a .750 winning percentage to finish out the year. If they swept the rest of August, they’d have won 14 in a row and need to have a 17-7 September. That doesn’t seem completely unreasonable. If they got halfway through September without losing a game, they’d have won 26 in a row and only need to finish 5-7 to reach .500.

A couple key things to remember, here: I’m not asking you if you think the Royals can achieve any of those winning streaks. Just how long the streak would need to be for you to start dreaming about the playoffs again. Also, if they at least swept the rest of August, they’d hold tie-breakers over the Twins, Mariners, Tigers, and Guardians. With a really strong shot to also hold one over the Blue Jays. That’s a lot of teams in front of them that they’d beat out for a final playoff spot, should it miraculously come to that.


Hot Stuff: Mariners vs. Phillies Series Preview

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - AUGUST 23: Designated hitter Kyle Schwarber #12 of the Philadelphia Phillies reacts with his team after hitting a walk off two RBI home run during the ninth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Citizens Bank Park on August 23, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Bill Streicher/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Phillies are coming in on a nine-game winning streak after sweeping the Twins, Marlins, and Cardinals in successive series. Philadelphia continues to remain in a tight race for the NL Wild Card and the NL East division title. Meanwhile, the Mariners are barely hanging onto the fringe of the AL playoff picture, including giving up 19+ runs twice in a week. All this is to say the momentum is with the Phillies.

So things aren’t looking great, but the Mariners are not eliminated yet; it’s still very possible for them to make a run for the playoffs, remaining just three games out of the Wild Card and three games out of the AL West. Plus, despite the blowouts, the Mariners still claimed a series victory over one of the best teams in the NL, the Chicago Cubs. While things have definitely looked bleak since the All-Star break, this team still has the chance to control their destiny, and disrupting a red-hot Phillies squad could be the perfect start to doing so. 

GameTimeMariners StarterPhillies StarterMariners Win%Phillies Win%
Game 1Monday, August 24 | 6:40 pmRHP Logan GilbertRHP Zack Wheeler49.9%50.1%
Game 2Tuesday, August 25 | 6:40 pmRHP George KirbyRHP Aaron Nola56.8%43.2%
Game 3Wednesday, August 26 | 1:10 pmRHP Bryan WooLHP Jesús Luzardo52.5%47.5%
*Game odds courtesy of FanGraphs
OverviewMarinersPhilliesEdge
Batting (wRC+)100 (10th in AL)96 (12th in NL)Mariners
Fielding (FRV)-39 (15th)-7 (12th)Phillies
Starting Pitching (FIP-)97 (8th)87 (2nd)Phillies
Bullpen (FIP-)101 (8th)89 (3rd)Phillies

The Phillies are a different team than you would expect, despite the notable names in their lineup — Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner — they actually don’t pop off the page much as a team offensively. They’re not top 10 in the NL in runs or average or home runs or hits. In fact, across the board they end up rather middle of the pack despite the power-hitting stars that fill out the lineup. It’s much more likely that you’ve heard talk about their rotation this year, especially the continued breakout of Cristopher Sánchez, who the Mariners will thankfully be missing. However, the Mariners will still have to face the always dangerous Zach Wheeler, who is likely cruising to another top 10 Cy Young finish, as well as closer Jhoan Duran, who remains one of the best closers in MLB. This group of pitchers excels at striking out batters, so much so that they lead the NL as a group. However, the Phillies have weaknesses; while their starters can often go out and drop a quality start or keep a lineup shut down for six innings, the bullpen will still let a few runs through. If the Mariners can score early and attack a leaky Phillies bullpen, they may yet have a chance to size some momentum here and ride it right into the playoffs. 

PlayerPositionBatsPAK%BB%ISOwRC+
Kyle SchwarberDHL56033.2%14.6%0.288140
Trea TurnerSSR56121.6%6.4%0.14587
Bryce HarperRFL55920.9%16.6%0.238139
Luis Arraez2BL5414.4%5.0%0.121119
Alec Bohm1BR50913.6%6.3%0.14289
Bryson StottSSL49016.3%10.2%0.148105
Brandon MarshLFL48924.7%6.1%0.162104
J.T. RealmutoCR36920.9%7.6%0.12679
Justin CrawfordCFL38317.8%5.7%0.08985

The Phillies have rarely deviated from the lineups they send out on a day-to-day basis. The top three will almost always be Schwarber, Turner, Harper, followed by some combination of Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, and Luis Arraez. While the order can shift, those six are essentially guaranteed to be in the lineup somewhere. 

Kyle Schwarber typically leads off; the three-true-outcomes power hitter and perpetual MVP candidate continues to offer power and a solid eye at the top of the lineup, leading the NL in home runs and currently third in walks. Schwarber also leads the NL in strikeouts, so it’s not like there’s no hope in getting him out. Trea Turner typically falls behind Schwarber. The well-compensated shortstop has faced a lot of criticism this year from local fans as his production continues to fall short of expectations. The former All-Star has gone from winning a batting title to dropping 60 points in his batting average and has struggled to match his form and performance from last year on any level. Still, you never know when someone is gonna break out, and the Mariners tend to bring the best out of their opponents. Bryce Harper rounds out the top three; the two-time MVP is always a cause for concern, and this week is no different. Harper leads the league in walks while boasting a 134 OPS+ to go along with 26 home runs so far this year. While he might not quite be in the MVP conversation, Harper is certainly someone to be very wary of.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

PitcherIPK%BB%HR/FB%GB%ERAFIP
Zack Wheeler120.130.4%7.0%13.9%43.2%2.923.21
Logan Gilbert150.126.4%6.2%11.8%37.3%3.353.56
PitchUsage vRHBUsage vLHBVelocityStuff+Whiff+BIP+xwOBA
Four-seam29.3%38.2%95.21131331150.220
Sinker34.4%4.7%94.7110841270.284
Cutter0.3%17.2%90.883931320.322
Splitter7.1%20.8%87.388132720.208
Curveball1.1%12.9%79.8123149720.196
Sweeper27.8%6.0%81.21031071240.253

Zack Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for the better part of a decade, a model of consistency and health. A blood clot in his shoulder cut his season short last year and he eventually had to undergo surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. Despite the severity of the injury, he missed just a month to start the season and has looked no worse for wear once he got back on the mound. Under the hood, he’s seen his strikeout-to-walk ratio slip just a tiny bit, though a strikeout rate dropping from 33.3% to 30.4% still makes him one of the best strikeout artists in the game. He’s got excellent command of his deep repertoire, plenty of weapons to induce swings and misses, and masterfully keeps batters off balance.

PitcherIPK%BB%HR/FB%GB%ERAFIP
Aaron Nola13724.6%7.8%18.9%39.6%5.124.92
George Kirby14019.9%5.6%10.6%43.9%4.183.76
PitchUsage vRHBUsage vLHBVelocityStuff+Whiff+BIP+xwOBA
Four-seam17.7%27.3%92.310764800.401
Sinker28.1%13.0%91.6103851170.375
Cutter10.0%5.9%86.391109820.356
Changeup7.1%21.6%85.66788950.317
Curveball34.8%32.2%78.31251361140.223
Slider2.3%0.1%83.2

Aaron Nola’s long and successful career seems to be winding down. He’s been a staple member of the Phillies rotation for more than a decade, but with all those miles on his arm, he’s started the slow descent of an aging hurler. His ERA isn’t as high as it was during an injury-plagued season last year but his FIP is up to a career-high this year. His trademark curveball is still a very effective pitch but the deterioration of his fastball velocity is the main culprit behind his struggles. He’s responded by throwing his breaking ball more than ever, but batters are still pounding his hard stuff when they see it.

PitcherIPK%BB%HR/FB%GB%ERAFIP
Jesús Luzardo15630.1%7.3%10.9%48.2%3.352.84
Bryan Woo138.124.3%5.2%9.0%36.8%4.103.30
PitchUsage vRHBUsage vLHBVelocityStuff+Whiff+BIP+xwOBA
Four-seam29.2%13.1%96.99880980.304
Sinker12.5%34.9%95.811086990.326
Changeup23.4%3.0%86.0103122960.297
Sweeper34.9%49.1%86.1123145970.181

After trading for Jesús Luzardo last year and helping him truly establish himself as a big league pitcher, the Phillies signed him to a five-year extension this offseason. He has responded with the best season of his career. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is higher than ever, he’s pushed his groundball rate up six points, and he’s very likely to earn downballot Cy Young votes for his efforts. Everything starts with his power sweeper. He’s throwing that breaking ball more than ever and it’s one of the best pitches in all of baseball. A pair of solid fastballs and a changeup round out his repertoire, but the big bender is the foundation that makes the whole package hum.


The Big Picture:

TeamW-LW%Games BehindRun DiffRecent Form
Astros65-660.496-44W-L-W-L-L
Rangers65-660.496-46L-W-W-L-W
Mariners62-690.4733.0-61W-L-W-W-L
Angels52-790.39713.0-70L-W-L-W-L
Athletics51-800.38914.0-187L-L-L-W-W
TeamW-LW%Games BehindRun DiffRecent Form
Yankees74-560.569+9.5+100W-W-W-L-W
Red Sox71-590.546+6.5+99W-L-W-W-W
Guardians65-660.496-9L-W-W-W-W
Rangers65-660.496-46L-W-W-L-W
Blue Jays64-680.4851.5-55L-W-L-W-L
Twins63-680.4812.0-54W-W-L-L-L
Orioles63-680.4812.0-35L-L-W-W-L
Mariners62-690.4733.0-61W-L-W-W-L
Tigers61-690.4693.5+73L-L-L-L-L

Another week, another Wild Card leader. Thanks to a sweep over the weekend in Colorado, the Guardians have leapt into the third Wild Card slot, tied with the Rangers and Astros. Houston technically holds the AL West division lead despite matching records with the other Texas team; the ‘Stros travel to face the Yankees this week. Meanwhile, the Rangers head to Chicago to face the AL Central leading White Sox.

Red Sox News & Links: Roman Anthony heads to AAA, could rejoin Sox this week

BOSTON, MA - MAY 10: Roman Anthony #19 of the Boston Red Sox during the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park on May 10, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Sox’ contingent of rehabbing big leaguers has been a mixed bag in the minors so far. Roman Anthony seems fine, more or less, hitting moon shots, working walks, and working his way back. Trevor Story and IKF, on the other hand, look lost at the plate. So what’s next for this trio? Story and IKF will head to Boston today to be reevaluated, and they could potentially rejoin the team for the upcoming series against the Marlins. Anthony, though, will head southwest from Portland to Worcester and make his first appearance with the WooSox on Tuesday. Could he return before the weekend? “I wouldn’t completely rule it out,” Chad Tracy said. “But I still think he’s in the building-up phase of outfield and continuing to get at-bats. So, I won’t completely rule it out, but he’s definitely going to continue on Tuesday in Worcester.“ (Ian Browne, MLB.com)

Trevor Story certainly didn’t look like a big leaguer down in Worcester. And complicating matters with respect to his return is the fact that Nick Sogard has looked great in Fenway. “You can’t say enough about it,” Tracy said of Sogard’s receet play. “You’re getting power swings on the left side, powerful swings on the right side. You’re getting great defense. It’s been enormous, the at-bats he’s taken.” (Alex Speier, Boston Globe)

Unfortunately, Garrett Crochet isn’t nearly as close to returning, though he is making progress, having recently started “playing catch from 90 feet with greater intensity.” As a result of his injury, he has officially lost his ability to opt out of his contract in 2030, and the Sox now hold an option on him for the 2032 season. “I’ve long since accepted it,” Crochet said. “Regardless of that, my goal is to come back and help the team in any way that I can.” (Peter Abraham, Boston Globe)

When Crochet does return, he’ll find himself paired with a new battery mate of course. Luckily, new catcher Adley Rutschman is getting great reviews for the way he handles the staff. (Peter Abraham, Boston Globe)

As amazing as this season has been, it isn’t hard to think about what this team would look like Garrett Crochet in the rotation, especially come playoff time. As it stands, though, we’ll get a little preview of the Sox playoff rotation this week, as Ranger Suarez, Payton Tolle, and Sonny Gray will face the Marlins in that order. (Rodney Knuppel, NESN)

Jake Bennett may or may not make a postseason start. He’s been great relative to expectations this season, but is starting to struggle a bit. Those struggles continued in the early stages of yesterday’s game, but he was saved by some great defense. (Chris Cotillo, MassLive)

Don’t go on me: Phillies vs. Mariners series preview

SEATTLE, WA - AUGUST 22: Cal Raleigh #29 of the Seattle Mariners bats during the game between the Chicago Cubs and the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on Saturday, August 22, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Eric Hiller/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

When a team is on a hot streak – and I feel like a nine-game winning streak qualifies – it isn’t always the best thing for them to have to travel across the country. But the schedule makers have seen fit to send the Phillies out west for a three-city road trip, so hopefully, they can keep the magic going in the Pacific time zone.

On the positive side, the first stop on the trip is Seattle where the Mariners are having a massively disappointing season. After losing in game seven of the 2025 ALCS, the Mariners have slumped to 62-69, which somehow is still good enough for third place and the edge of contention in the awful American League West.

Since this is a Seattle team, I’ll put it in grunge terms: They’re still alive. But do they deserve to be?

Opposition research: Cal Raleigh

Many people believed Cal Raleigh should have been the American League MVP winner last year. Hitting a league-leading 60 home runs while playing good defense as a catcher is something that simply doesn’t happen. While the 60 home runs might have been a fluke, it wasn’t like Raleigh came out of nowhere. He hit 34 homers the years before, and combined with a Gold Glove in 2024, it felt like the “best catcher in baseball” debate had been settled and would be for at least a few years.

The debate has been reopened this season because Raleigh has followed up that stellar campaign with one of the worst seasons by any player in baseball.

“Big Dumper” is no longer a complimentary nickname, as Raleigh is batting just .159 with 14 home runs. He spent about a month on the Injured List with an oblique strain earlier this year, but if the Mariners hoped a return to health would mean a return to production, they’ve been sorely disappointed, as his post-injury statistics are in line with what he was doing beforehand.

It isn’t clear why Raleigh has had such a downturn this season. Maybe his teammate put a curse on him for snubbing him during the WBC? If so, that’s an epic own goal on Randy Arozarena.

Hating on the Mariners

Unless the Mariners make a run to win the West, this will be another season where they don’t make it to the World Series. I understand that they’ve only been around since 1977, but that’s almost 50 years now.

This franchise had the coolest player of the 90’s, and the most prominent Japanese player in baseball for 14 years, and they couldn’t find a way to win even one American League pennant? They should have done what the Dodgers are doing and convince other high profile Japanese players to team up with Ichiro. (It probably didn’t help that they never made the playoffs with Ichiro after his rookie season.)

Maybe the guy was a bad teammate? I know one Mariners fan, and he actually can’t stand Ichiro, saying he was a selfish player who worried about individual stats to the team’s detriment. Then again, I think a lot of fans of bad teams say that about their stars.

Remembering a guy who played for both the Phillies and Mariners

Mike Sweeney was a multiple-time All-Star for the Kansas City Royals. The first baseman had elite on-base skills and could be counted on for 20+ home runs a season. By the time he signed with the Mariners before the 2009 season, he was 35 years old and clearly in decline.

Mostly used as a bench bat, Sweeney was solid for the Mariners, with an OPS of .784 and 14 home runs in 104 games. In late 2010, the Mariners were out of contention, while Ryan Howard had to go on the Injured List, so the Phillies sent some cash the Mariners way and added Sweeney for the stretch run.

Sweeney’s time with the Phillies was mostly unmemorable, but he did hit a home run in the division-clinching victory against the Nationals, and he had a single in his only postseason at bat during the NLDS.

After the season, Sweeney retired and returned to the Royals in a front office job.

Do not want

Speaking of Arozarena, there were rumors that the Phillies could have traded for him before the deadline. That obviously didn’t happen, but it remains possible that they pursue the outfielder in free agency this offseason. But he’s 31 years of age, has been a good, not great hitter throughout his career, is enjoying a career best season heading into free agency, and is rated poorly on defense.

That sounds somewhat similar to a free agent outfielder the Phillies signed before the 2022 season, and for the most part, that move didn’t work out so well.

Additional thought about the series

Flying to Seattle and starting a series without an off day is tough, but with the Phillies on a roll, maybe that’s for the best. There have been many debates about how real momentum is in baseball, but generally when a team is doing well, you don’t want to get them out of their routine. (Though a cross-country flight and changing time zones probably qualifies as getting them out of their routine.)

We know the Phillies are going to lose at some point (right?) and I assumed that was going to happen on Sunday. But the offense decided to just win the game dramatically instead.

I think the team is due for an absolute stinker of a game where they just suffer a week’s worth of misfortune in one night. I hope that doesn’t happen on Monday, because it would be nice to see Zack Wheeler look good after about a month of shakiness. On the other hand, with the games starting late, I probably won’t be able to see the entire affair. So maybe it would be nice for them to get the stinkiness out of their system while I’m asleep.

Why the Astros felt they had to make a front-office shakeup now with Dana Brown

Houston Astros general manager Dana Brown knew this day was coming, and there was nothing that was going to save it.

Not a postseason berth.

Not a deep October run.

Not a downtown parade celebrating their third World Series title in 10 years.

So after a horrific homestand, losing six of their last eight games to three of the worst teams in the American League – the Athletics, Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners – Astros owner Jim Crane pulled the plug Monday.

Brown was fired, although it was announced as a mutual parting of the ways. He was informed of the decision Sunday night, they agreed to call it a mutual parting Monday morning, and he was already packing his bags and taking off for his home in New Jersey.

It was the Astros' 7-6 defeat Sunday to the lowly Athletics, blowing a 6-0 lead, that sent Crane over the top, believing that if they had any chance of reaching the playoffs, drastic changes needed to be made.

While one high-ranking Astros official said that Joe Espada will not receive a new contract after the season, Espada’s status is unchanged and he will remain as manager, and a decision by Crane will be made after the season. The Astros are 65-66 and tied for first place in the AL West.

Crane, who will have a news conference Tuesday, Aug. 25 in New York to discuss his reasoning for the Brown firing and what’s next, simply had seen enough to believe the Astros weren’t going to make the playoffs if he didn’t do something rash. He will oversee the operations with the assistance of Hall of Famer Jeff Bagwell, who has tremendous influence in the organization as a senior adviser, along with assistant GMs Charles Cook, Gavin Dickey and Connor Huff.

They will look for a full-time GM in the offseason, likely trying to hire someone from the Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays or Cleveland Guardians.

It’s possible that they could turn to Bagwell, if he shows strong interest in the job, with Cook expected to get a strong look as someone who’s highly regarded by the organization.

Those will be decisions in the offseason. But for now, Crane badly wants to be a playoff team again after the Astros missed the postseason last year for the first time in nine years.

In a season where no AL West team currently owns a winning record, Brown became the third general manager in the division to lose his job, joining the Athletics' David Forst and Angels GM Perry Minasian.

"I’ve never seen anything like it," one AL executive said. "Three GMs fired in one division. Unreal."

Brown, who led the Astros to two division titles in his nearly-four-year tenure, could easily return to Atlanta where he was the Braves' special assistant and scouting guru. GM Alex Anthopoulos could even bring the band back together and hire Minasian, too, who was his assistant GM before going to the Angels.

Brown surely will get another job in baseball, just like James Click, who was fired as the Astros GM after winning the 2022 World Series and is now a special assistant in Toronto.

"I want to thank Jim Crane for the opportunity to serve in my first role as an MLB General Manager," Brown said in a statement. "The Astros organization and the fans have welcomed me and my family, and I am grateful to have called Houston home for the past four seasons. I wish the organization well and I look forward to the future as I continue my 36-plus years in professional baseball."

Brown’s future starts now, and so does the Astros’ urgency to now save their season.

This story has been updated to include new information.

Follow Bob Nightengale on X: @Bnightengale

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Why the Astros felt they had to make a front-office shakeup now with Dana Brown

Astros and GM Dana Brown mutually agree to part ways

HOUSTON — General manager Dana Brown and the Houston Astros mutually have agreed to part ways, the team announced, when it was tied for first place in the AL West.

Brown’s contract was set to expire at the end of the season. Senior adviser Jeff Bagwell and assistant general managers Charles Cook, Gavin Dickey and Connor Huff will take over Brown’s responsibilities while team owner Jim Crane will oversee baseball operations during the transition.

The move comes after the Astros went 3-6 on a homestand that ended to fall into a tie with the Texas Rangers for the AL West lead.

Brown had been the team’s general manager since January 2023.

“Over the past four seasons, Dana has helped our organization win two division titles and has led our baseball front office through key scouting, draft and development efforts,” Crane said in a statement. “On behalf of the Astros, I want to thank him for his commitment, energy, and contributions to our organization. We wish he and his family the best.”

Brown came to Houston after four seasons as vice president of scouting for the Atlanta Braves to replace James Click, who was not given a new contract and left the Astros just days after they won the 2022 World Series.

“I want to thank Jim Crane for the opportunity to serve in my first role as an MLB General Manager,” Brown said. “The Astros organization and the fans have welcomed me and my family, and I am grateful to have called Houston home for the past four seasons. I wish the organization well and I look forward to the future as I continue my 36-plus years in professional baseball.”

Chicago Cubs update: Pete Crow-Armstrong, David Peterson, Aaron Civale

The Cubs were involved in four walk-off games of the six they played against the White Sox and Mariners over the past week.

Unfortunately, since the latter series was on the road, the Cubs won only two of those four walk-offs.

And even though they went just 3-3 on the week, they scored 39 runs in the six games — though the last five of those were off Mariners position players. Nevertheless, they count just the same.

Here’s who was hot and not for the Cubs over the past week.

Three up

Pete Crow-Armstrong does it all

PCA led off a game with a first-pitch home run. PCA walked off a game with a home run. And that was the same game! [VIDEO]

Overall for the week, the Cubs center fielder batted .375/.483/1.083 (9-for-24) with two doubles, five home runs, eight RBI, six runs scored, five walks and two stolen bases. That might just be enough to win him another NL Player of the Week award. He’s now up to 8.1 bWAR (8.7 fWAR).

David Peterson continues to shine

Peterson, temporarily moved to the bullpen when Edward Cabrera temporarily returned to the rotation, threw a key 1.1 scoreless innings last Monday against the White Sox, then returned to starting and threw six innings against the Mariners Saturday, allowing two runs and striking out eight [VIDEO].

Since his disastrous start against the Cardinals July 3, Peterson has a 2.20 ERA and 1.195 WHIP in eight games (seven starts) covering 41 innings. Even including that awful Cardinals game, he’s got a 3.93 ERA and 1.311 WHIP in 10 games (nine starts) with the Cubs.

Aaron Civale has quietly been very good with the Cubs

Civale kept Sunday’s game in order with four one-hit innings until the Cubs bats turned it into a blowout. He also kept last Wednesday’s game against the White Sox close with 1.1 scoreless innings, though the Cubs ultimately could not come back and win that one.

He has a 1.80 ERA and 1.050 WHIP (2.84 FIP) in nine games for the Cubs covering 20 innings, with five walks and 18 strikeouts. He also threw well in five games for the Cubs last September.

If Civale would agree to come back to the Cubs in 2027 in this role, I think he’d be quite good at it.

Hat tip to Ian Happ, who went 6-for-20 with two home runs over the six games. If this is the start of one of Happ’s hot streaks, it’s coming at a very good time.

And another H/T for Alex Bregman: .360/.414/.760 (9-for-25) with three home runs in the six games. Bregman’s season OPS is up to .767.

Three down

Where’s the Kevin Gausman the Cubs traded for?

In three starts for the Cubs, Gausman has one good start, one mediocre outing and one bad one. This past week was the mediocre game, seven hits and three runs in 4.1 innings, with 86 pitches thrown.

He’s going to start tonight against the Diamondbacks. Hoping for better things.

Back to the drawing board for Ryan Zeferjahn

In his two appearances for the Cubs in these six games, Zeferjahn blew a save against the White Sox (in the game PCA won with his 10th-inning walk-off homer) and gave up the game-winning hit to Leo Rivas of the Mariners Friday.

Zeferjahn has talent, but… maybe the Cubs will have to wait until 2027 to make the best use of it.

The entire American League is killing the Cubs

The Cubs are 54-32 (.628) against NL teams and 21-24 in interleague play.

The Brewers are 54-35 (.607) against NL teams and 27-15 in interleague play.

Thus the entire difference between the Cubs and Brewers can be accounted for in their record vs. American League teams. The Cubs are the only National League team currently in a postseason position to not have a winning record in interleague contests.

Perhaps fortunately for the Cubs, they have just one series left vs. an AL team, the last three games of the regular season at Fenway Park against the Red Sox. The Brewers have two — they will host the Rangers this weekend, then play at Baltimore Sept. 18-19-20.

MLB Player Props & Best Bets for Today, Aug. 24

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Happy Monday! Let's kick this week off on a high note!

Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB player propsfor Monday, Aug. 24, including why I expect Parker Messick to shove this evening in Los Angeles.

Best MLB player props today

Player PickOdds
Guardians Parker MessickOver 6.5 strikeouts-158
Twins Kody ClemensOver 1.5 total bases+115
Rockies Ryan FeltnerUnder 3.5 strikeouts+110

Parker Messick Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-158)

The obsession continues with backing Cleveland Guardians left-hander Parker Messick, but he keeps finding himself in shove spots. Tonight, he draws one of baseball's most swing-happy lineups, the Los Angeles Angels.

Messick has been on an absolute tear over his last three starts, posting a 32% strikeout rate. Over his last five outings, he sports a 29% strikeout rate, with 30% of his pitches ending in either a swinging strike or called strike and a near-70% first-pitch strike rate.

The very aggressive southpaw faces an Angels lineup that features eight hitters with at least a 21.7% strikeout rate, including four who strike out 32.8% of the time or more. Overall, the team has a 25.5% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers. On top of that, they also own a 74% contact rate and 31.5% O-Swing rate.

If you are not in the juice-paying business, take this up to 7.5 for plus money. The near 5-to-1 price for 10 strikeouts is pretty intriguing as well.

  • Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: CLEG, ABTV

Kody Clemens Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)

Oh no, a lefty-on-lefty matchup! Stop crying.

Minnesota Twins first baseman — and son of "The Rocket" — Kody Clemens is in a great spot against Athletics southpaw Jeffrey Springs in Sacramento.

Clemens has a .596 xSLG and a 29.6% ground-ball rate, while generating a 52% hard-hit rate and nearly 15% barrel rate over his last 10 games. Over his last 30 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, the 30-year-old has a .300 BA, .500 SLG and .800 OPS.

Springs has struggled against left-handed hitters, with a 9.82 ERA and 7.16 xFIP while allowing 2.46 HR/9 in his 60 most recent left-on-left matchups. Those lefties have a .285 xBA, .449 xSLG, and .279 ISO.

At +115 for two bases, this is a great price for a guy who is more than capable of a big game. Take this down to +105.

  • Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: MNNT, NBCSCA

Ryan Feltner Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110)

Colorado Rockies right-hander Ryan Feltner owns the worst average strikeout rate at Batters-Box for today's slate.

Today marks his 27th game with a poorly rated strikeout rate. In the previous 26, he stayed under 3.5 strikeouts 50% of the time. He has also stayed under this prop in eight of his last 10 poorly rated strikeout rates.

Feltner has a much higher strikeout rate on the road, at 15.20% this year. However, in his last three outings, his strikeout rate is below 10%.

The Washington Nationals have only two bats above a 20% strikeout rate in their last 30 at-bats against a right-handed pitcher.

Unders are always sweaty, but snagging this at plus money will make up for it.

  • Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: COLR, NATS
Colby Marchio's 2026 Transparency Record
  • Prop picks: 428-843, -14.7 units

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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