Apr 18, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Emmet Sheehan (80) throws during the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images | Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images
After a productive six-game homestand, the Dodgers hit the road for a single series, playing the Arizona Diamondbacks for four games at Chase Field in Phoenix in the second meeting of the year between these two National League West rivals.
The Dodgers swept their opening series of the season from March 26-28 at Dodger Stadium. Arizona has been playing much better of late, winning 10 of 11 games before a hiccup this weekend in Seattle, putting themselves squarely in wild card contention.
Emmet Sheehan starts on Monday for the Dodgers, making his first career start at Chase Field. Left-hander Eduardo Rodríguez on the mound for the home team.
The Diamondbacks are 18-10 at home, and have won eight of their last nine games in Phoeni. The Dodgers have won their last four road series.
WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 30: First baseman Ty France #25 of the San Diego Padres tries to pick off center fielder Dylan Crews #3 of the Washington Nationals at first base in the eighth inning at Nationals Park on May 30, 2026 in Washington, DC. The Nationals held off the Padres for a 9-4 victory after scoring 6 runs in the seventh inning. (Photo by Samuel Corum/Getty Images) | Getty Images
San Diego Padres (32-25) at Washington Nationals (30-29), May 31, 2026, 10:35 p.m. PST
Don’t troll in your comments; create conversation rather than destroying it
Remember Gaslamp Ball is basically a non-profanity site
Out of respect to broadcast partners who have paid to carry the game, no mentions of “alternative” (read: illegal) viewing methods are allowed in our threads
PITTSBURGH, PA - MAY 26: Braxton Ashcraft #35 of the Pittsburgh Pirates pitches in the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at PNC Park on May 26, 2026 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Pittsburgh Pirates are at home today against the Minnesota Twins looking to grab a win.
Please remember our Game Day thread guidelines.
Don’t troll in your comments; create conversation rather than destroying it
Remember Bucs Dugout is basically a non-profanity site
Out of respect to broadcast partners who have paid to carry the game, no mentions of “alternative” (read: illegal) viewing methods are allowed in our threads
The commenting system was updated during the summer. They’re still working on optimizing it for Game Day Threads like ours. If you don’t like clicking “Load More Comments”, remember that the “Z” key can be your friend. It loads up the latest comments automatically.
BD community, this is your thread for today’s game. Enjoy!
This site’s manager is Brady Klopfer who also does all the minor league reporting, and upon seeing the news posted by Susan Slusser that the San Francisco Giants would be calling up outfielder Jonah Cox, he posted in our work chat: “I’m sorry WHAT,” which suggests to me that we should all treat this news with a lot of surprise.
The 24-year old is hitting .400/.453/.644 with 11 doubles, 5 triples, and 6 home runs for Double-A Richmond this season. He also sports a very interesting 2:1 strikeouts to walk ratio (31:16), which is well within the zone of where minor leaguers start projecting as serviceable major leaguers. But it’s that .400 batting average that will make him famous in the organization, we know that in our bones. The batting average fetishization is strong and .400 is .400. But he’s also quite fast and a proficient base stealer, a skill set the Giants have been sorely missing (they have just 14 stolen bases on the season). If you’re interested in hearing Cox speak, former site contributor Roger Munter interviewed him a few weeks ago for his There R Giants podcast — check it out!
Prior to the season, the McCovey Chronicles community did not include him in the community’s prospect rankings list. As Brady wrote, Cox “was unable to take notable strides on offense,” hitting just .257/.333/.398 in 597 PA last season at Eugene. Slusser had a follow-up post saying that she didn’t think Cox would be in the lineup today, but would be around and available for this finale at Coors Field. Brady’s writeup a couple of days ago explains why he was the next minor leaguer to get the call to the big leagues:
Yet another strong game for right fielder Jonah Cox, who has officially graduated from “hot start” to “leveled up.” It’s been nearly 50 games and 200 plate appearances for the new-look Cox, whose swing has undergone changes that have resulted in dramatic improvements in both the stat sheet and the underlying metrics.
He was back to his old tricks on Thursday, though, as he hit 3-5 with a pair of infield singles and a stolen base, while also knocking a double.
Cox has, stunningly, hit safely in 40 out of 43 games this season, which includes 16 multi-hit games. A year after posting a .731 OPS, a 103 wRC+, a 22.4% strikeout rate, and a 12.0% swinging strike rate in High-A, he has a 1.130 OPS, a 196 wRC+, a 16.9% strikeout rate, and a 10.3% swinging strike rate in AA. He’s even stealing more bases, with 27 in 43 games, after an organization-leading 58 in 126 games a year ago (easier to steal bases when you’re getting on base seemingly every at-bat!).
Just a phenomenal year, and the A’s 2023 6th-rounder is quickly becoming one of the top prospects in the system.
Here’s hoping some of this hot streak carries over to the majors. Whew. What a great pickup for Ross Stripling. Will the move work out? Who’s to say. As the estimable Baseball Jeff reminds us,
Meanwhile, the Giants designated Ryan Borucki for assignment.
Now, before you go and say, “Good riddance!” just know that in addition to being really terrible (4.94 ERA / 4.93 xFIP, -0.2 fWAR in 23.2 IP), he was actually quite good as a LOOGY, holding lefties to a line of .195/.306/.244 (.550 OPS). The problem is, the modern game has phased out the LOOGY because of the three batter rule but also — and more importantly — because of the way lineups are constructed and substituted now. Borucki would’ve been a great guy to have during Buster Posey’s playing days.
10:20am edit: Tristan Beck has also been recalled to take Borucki’s spot on the active roster while Beck will be replacing Will Brennan who has been optioned back to Triple-A.
ARLINGTON, TEXAS - MAY 30: Joc Pederson #3 of the Texas Rangers celebrates after hitting a solo home run against the Kansas City Royals during the ninth inning at Globe Life Field on May 30, 2026 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Texas Rangers lineup for May 31, 2026 against the Kansas City Royals: starting pitchers are Jack Leiter for the Rangers and Michael Wacha for the Royals.
The Rangers look to try to sweep the Royals this afternoon. Evan Carter, who got hit in the foot with a pitch on Friday, is sitting for the second day in a row. Alejandro Osuna, who was hit in the finger while bunting yesterday and left the game, is starting.
The lineup:
Pederson — DH
Jung — 1B
Nimmo — RF
Burger — 1B
Duran — SS
Osuna — LF
Higashioka — C
Lopez — 2B
Helman — CF
1:35 p.m. Central start time. The game is a pick ‘em.
May 25, 2026; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Bradish (38) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images | Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images
Where to watch: NBCSN/Peacock
Probable pitchers: RHP Kyle Bradish (2-6, 3.86 ERA, 61 K) vs. RHP Spencer Miles (2-0, 2.16 ERA, 32 K)
The Orioles have put all of Birdland on an emotional rollercoaster this past week, starting with a Colton Cowser walkoff homer vs. the Tigers and ending with a Pete Alonso walkoff single last night vs. the Blue Jays. In between those two walkoff winners, we saw the Orioles sweep the Rays only to open the Toronto series with two straight frustrating losses. This afternoon’s contest will give the O’s a chance to split the series vs. the Blue Jays and start a new week on a high.
Leading Baltimore into the Sunday finale is the scorching hot Kyle Bradish. The Orioles right-hander has three quality starts in his last four outings and is sporting a 3.49 ERA in May. The 29-year-old’s recent uptick in form has coincided with an increase in curveball usage from the O’s former ace. Through five starts in May, Bradish’s curveball usage has increased from 19.5% to 26.3%. It’s been a much sharper breaking ball that’s been nigh un-hittable for his opposition, with opponents hitting .077 against the curve this month with a 47.3% whiff rate.
Toronto has often caused Bradish problems throughout his career, something he’ll try to reverse this afternoon. The right-handers’ 5.18 ERA vs. the Blue Jays is the seventh-worst against any opponent. Due to his elbow injury and recovery time, Bradish hasn’t faced Toronto since May 15th, 2024, when he went 4 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB and 3 K in a 3-2 Orioles win. The O’s starter will have to be careful against Toronto outfielder Jesús Sánchez, who is slugging .600 vs. curveballs this season.
Opposing Bradish for the Blue Jays is rookie right-hander Spencer Miles. The former 4th-round pick out of the University of Missouri was primarily used as a reliever early in the season, but has either started or followed an opener in his last four appearances. Miles has only allowed one earned run across those four longer outings, striking out 16 across 15.1 IP.
The Missouri native has a very similar repertoire to Bradish, relying on a hard sinker that sits around 96mph and a high spin rate curveball. Unlike Bradish, Miles uses his arsenal to generate more groundballs than swings and misses, boasting a 55.4% ground ball rate (93rd percentile). That could pose a problem for an Orioles team that grounded into four double plays yesterday and six total in the series.
May 19, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Milwaukee Brewers manager Pat Murphy (49) talks with pitcher Jacob Misiorowski (32) before the game against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images | Matt Marton-Imagn Images
To get that series win, the Brewers will send out ace Jacob Misiorowski, who is looking to put a bow on one of the best months we’ve ever seen for a Brewer pitcher. Across five starts this month, Miz is a perfect 4-0 with a 0.29 ERA (one run) across 31 1/3 innings, allowing just 11 hits and six walks with a whopping 49 strikeouts, pushing him to 100 for the season over just 64 innings.
Opposite Miz will be Tatsuya Imai, who is coming off his best start in the majors. After starting his career with an 8.31 ERA over his first 17 1/3 innings (16 earned runs), he went six no-hit innings on Memorial Day against the Rangers, allowing four walks and striking out two as Steven Okert and Alimber Santa closed things out for Houston’s fifth no-hitter in the last five years (including one in the 2022 World Series).
In roster news, the Brewers have reinstated left-handed reliever Rob Zastryzny from the 60-day injured list. To open up the 40-man spot, left-hander Angel Zerpa was moved to the 60-day IL, as he’s out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Right-hander Carlos Rodriguez was optioned to Triple-A Nashville to make room on the active roster.
Zastryzny, 34, has been a solid option for the Brewers the last two seasons, pitching to a 2.12 ERA with 25 strikeouts across 29 2/3 innings (though his 4.09 FIP indicates some regression is expected). While he’s missed the entire season with a left shoulder strain, he’s appeared in seven games while rehabbing with Nashville, allowing no runs on two hits and a walk over 6 1/3 innings with seven strikeouts. He’ll add another left-handed option to Milwaukee’s bullpen to go with DL Hall, Aaron Ashby, and Shane Drohan.
Christian Yelich leads things off as the DH today, with Garrett Mitchell, Brice Turang, and Andrew Vaughn following. Jake Bauers bats fifth and starts in left, with Gary Sánchez batting sixth as the catcher to give William Contreras a day off. Sal Frelick, David Hamilton, and Joey Ortiz round things out.
First pitch is at 1:10 p.m. on Brewers TV and the Brewers Radio Network.
Mar 31, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles fans get a stadium view from above the bullpens prior to the opening home game against the Boston Red Sox at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images | Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images
I’m going to put up the GameThread a bit early today. The game is an early start and there isn’t much for news this morning.
It is Shane Bieber’s birthday. He is 30 today and has exactly 100 decisions in his career, 66-34. Do you think he’ll make it to 100 wins? Often pitchers who don’t throw a lot of innings in their 20s do well in their 30s. Shane’s only thrown 200 innings twice and 100 innings four times, so there should be some left in his arm, when he’s all healed up.
It is a strange balance. The Jays signed Jose Berrios to a long term contract, in part because he was so consistent, throwing a lot of innings every year, but then those innings caught up on him.
Shane is to pitch for Dunedin today, his second rehab start. A couple more starts, and we can start thinking about him joining the Jays again.
Anyway, happy birthday Shane. I hope we see you on the mound soon.
Max Scherzer is making a start for Buffalo today, 1:00 Eastern start. They figure he’ll be throwing 30-40 pitches. So, soon he could be back. Of course, back and effective are two different things.
Today’s lineup. McAdoo plays first, with Vlad getting half a day off, DHing.
And Spencer Miles gets to be a real starter. Nathan Lukes hits in the leadoff spot.
The Seattle Mariners hope to extend a five-game winning streak by picking up a sweep over the Arizona Diamondbacks this afternoon.
Bryce Miller has been impressive since returning from injury, and my Diamondbacks vs. Mariners predictions explain his slider will neutralize the visitors while Merrill Kelly has a rough day.
Who will win Diamondbacks vs Mariners today: Mariners -1.5 (+155)
After a brutal start to the season, Merrill Kelly’s posted four consecutive quality starts with a .237 wOBA — but I’m not convinced.
I’m not buying it when a career ground-ball pitcher allowed fly balls (49.4%) and hard hits (41.4%) at the rate he did in those starts — especially not while posting a 0.60 GB/FB ratio.
The Seattle Mariners rank sixth in HR/FB rate (14.6%) over the past two weeks with a 0.88 GB/FB ratio.
Kelly ranks in the bottom percentile in both barrel rate and xERA. I’m backing the Mariners to punish him and cover up to +130.
Diamondbacks vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-114)
While I’m expecting the Mariners to win easily, I am taking the Under to -120.
Bryce Miller has added 2 to 3 mph onto all of his pitches and has tripled his slider usage from a season ago. That breaking ball is generating a 43.3% whiff rate thanks to an additional 2.6 inches of induced vertical break.
That is a devastating equalizer against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have a league-leading 48.2% pull rate over the last two weeks.
Seattle’s pen has been outstanding this month, ranking fourth in xFIP (3.56), sixth in K% (24.4%), and sixth in wOBA (.290).
Jason Ence's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 9-12, -3.94 units
Over/Under bets: 13-8, +4.28 units
Diamondbacks vs Mariners odds
Moneyline: Diamondbacks +133 | Mariners -138
Run line: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-156) | Mariners -1.5 (+150)
Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-104)
Diamondbacks vs Mariners trend
The Seattle Mariners have covered the run line in four of their last five games (+4.80 Units / 96% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Mariners.
How to watch Diamondbacks vs Mariners and game info
Location
T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
Date
Sunday, May 31, 2026
First pitch
4:10 p.m. ET
TV
DBacks.TV, Mariners.TV
Diamondbacks starting pitcher
Merrill Kelly (5-3, 5.25 ERA)
Mariners starting pitcher
Bryce Miller (1-0, 2.25 ERA)
Diamondbacks vs Mariners latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Mariners weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers both saw their win streaks snapped in dramatic finishes last night, and they’re among the likeliest bounce-back candidates on today’s loaded slate.
That leaves the Seattle Mariners with the longest current winning run in the majors, and my MLB player props target all three ballclubs, including wagers on a lights-out effort from Yoshinobu Yamamoto and more fireworks from Randy Arozarena.
The Los Angeles Dodgers lead the majors in ERA and WHIP through the first third of the season — and the scariest part is that Yoshinobu Yamamoto is still ramping up to his very best stuff. His 0.98 WHIP ranks eighth in the league, and I'm buying into the consistency of his strikeout tallies.
Yamamoto has racked up 7+ Ks in five of his past seven outings, and his five-pitch arsenal (and 29% whiff rate) will keep the Philadelphia Phillies off balance today. He keeps his walks low — just 13 this year — and that's allowed him to pitch past the sixth inning in each of his last three starts.
It's also worth noting that the Phillies have scored three runs or fewer in six of their past eight games.
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: NBCS-Philadelphia, SportsNet-Los Angeles
Ben Rice Over 1.5 total bases (-105)
Put simply, Ben Rice is seeing pitches like soccer balls this week — and he's getting full value for his swings at the top of the New York Yankees lineup. Rice enters this afternoon's clash with the Athletics on a 10-for-17 tear across his last four games, including a homer, a triple, and three doubles.
He ranks second in the majors with a 1.047 OPS, and he's a standout hitter in just about every statistical category, from his .566 xSLG to his 17.7% barrel rate.
Equally effective against righties and lefties this year, look for Rice to feast against A's starter Jacob Lopez, who drags in a 5.73 ERA and 1.77 WHIP, and I'll take these plus-money odds for another busy day on the bases.
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Where to watch: YES, NBCS-California
Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-105)
After a couple of down years, Randy Arozarena looks back to his best at the plate this season for the Seattle Mariners, and his .292 batting average speaks for itself.
Watch for Arozarena to put an exclamation point on an impressive week here by cashing this Over. He's piled up eight hits across his past six games, cashing this combo prop in three of those outings, and I'm encouraged by his 4-for-8 mark against Arizona Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly.
Arozarena's savvy baserunning and his respectable 9.3% walk rate have contributed to 17 runs this month, and the RBI potential is off the charts with the in-form Mariners scoring a combined 40 runs in their last six contests.
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: DBacks.TV, Mariners.TV
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Kenny Lofton #12 of the New York Yankees is safe at home plate. The New York Yankees defeat the Tampa Bay Devil Rays 12-1 at the Tokyo Dome in Tokyo, Japan. (Photo by Tom Hauck/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Back in the days of Backyard Baseball 2001, Kenny Lofton was unstoppable. With his immense speed, pretty much every ball in play turned into a single, every single turned into a triple, and every ball hit vaguely in his general direction was caught. And so, when the Yankees, looking for another option in center field besides the aging Bernie Williams, signed Lofton to a two-year, $6.2 million contract, I had high hopes for the center fielder.
Needless to say, between injuries and underperformance, Lofton didn’t meet those lofty expectations, and his Yankees career wound up being little more than a footnote in what became, by the end, a journeyman-esque career.
Raised in East Chicago, Indiana, by his grandmother, Lofton was a star basketball player in his youth, who also pitched and played center field on his school’s baseball team. He received a basketball scholarship from the University of Arizona, where, as the backup point guard to five-time NBA champion player and four-time NBA champion coach Steve Kerr, he averaged 4.8 points and 2.6 assists per game, and set the school record for steals. In fact, he is just one of two players to play in both the NCAA Final Four (1988) and the World Series (1995, 2002) — alongside, coincidentally, fellow East Chicago Washington High School alumnus Tim Stoddard.
Despite not being recruited to play college baseball, Lofton tried out, and made, the Arizona team in his junior year. More surprisingly, despite hardly playing — he appeared in just five games and had one official plate appearance — he was taken in the 17th round of 1988 draft by the Astros, who recognized the value of his speed and agility. Although his playing time was limited at first, as he remained at Arizona through 1989 in order to finish his degree and play out his final year of eligibility, Lofton shot through the Astros system, making his Major League debut on September 14, 1991.
Lofton was traded for the first time that winter, as Houston already had a center fielder in Steve Finley. He would go on to spend the next five years in Cleveland, where he lit up the league with his speed. His numbers themselves were impressive enough — a 316/.382/.437 slash line with 325 stolen bases (an average of 65 per year!), along with Gold Glove defense. But where Lofton really made his mark was the pressure he put on defenses, with his ability to punish even the slightest mistakes — such as here, where he scored from second on a passed ball during Game 6 of the 1995 ALCS, helping to send Cleveland to the World Series for the first time in 40 years.
Ahead of the 1997 season, Lofton was traded for the second time in his career, this time to the team that beat Cleveland in ’95, the Braves, in exchange for fellow acclaimed center fielder Marquis Grissom. GM John Hart feared to lose Lofton for nothing as a free agent, but after one year in Atlanta, he returned to Cleveland on a three-year, $24 million deal (the defending AL champs subsequently dealt Grissom to Milwaukee). While Lofton’s second stint in Cleveland wasn’t quite as dominant as his early career, he remained an immensely valuable player, earning two more All-Star nods.
Starting in 2002, Lofton entered the journeyman phase of his career. He signed a one-year deal with the White Sox, believing them to be a team on the rise and Cleveland a team on the decline, but was then sent to the Giants at the Trade Deadline. He had a good run in San Francisco and got the walk-off hit in NLCS Game 5 against the Cardinals to send Barry Bonds and company to the 2002 World Series, which they lost in a seven-game heartbreaker to the Angels. Lofton then signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates for the 2003 season, and was traded to the Cubs at the deadline, reuniting with his manager in San Francisco, Dusty Baker, before experiencing more playoff disappointment.
That winter, the Yankees signed Lofton to a two-year deal, pencilling him in as their Opening Day center fielder and potential successor to Bernie Williams in center field. A hamstring injury caused him to miss time early in the season, and he never quite got going after that. Splitting the center-field job with Williams—a timeshare that neither player felt particularly comfortable in—Lofton played just 83 games, posting a .275/.346/.395 slash line while stealing a career-low seven bases. His one highlight that year came, rather poetically, against Cleveland, as he recorded his 2,000th career hit.
He made just four plate appearances in the ALDS, then went 3-for-10 in the ALCS that we don’t like to talk about here at Pinstripe Alley.
After the season, the Yankees traded Lofton to the Phillies for reliever Félix Rodríguez. In theory, that closed the door on his Yankees story. In truth, though, we almost had a coda. When CC Sabathia, who had been teammates with Lofton in Cleveland, was a free agent in the winter of 2008-09, Lofton reportedly tried to dissuade him from coming to New York, saying only bad things about his time in the organization. (For what it’s worth, getting the clubhouse back in harmony was one of the goals that Brian Cashman outlined for CC in his pitch.)
As a member of the Phillies, Lofton had a bit of a bounceback year, posting a .335/.392/.420 slash line. That winter, he signed with the Dodgers, and the following year, he inked a deal with the Rangers to set the record for most teams played for by a position player. At the Trade Deadline, he was dealt one last time, returning him to Cleveland for his third stint, where he helped lead Cleveland past the Yankees in the infamous “midges” series, before blowing a 3-1 lead to the Red Sox in the ALCS — a fitting cap to Lofton’s inability to get a World Series ring throughout his career.
Lofton wanted to play in 2008 and 2009, but went unsigned both seasons, bringing his 17-year career to an end. He was named to Cleveland’s Hall of Fame in 2010, then fell off the National Baseball Hall of Fame ballot after just one season — a result that to this day has people using Lofton as evidence for the flaws in the HOF voting process, as he debuted on a crowded ballot with 10 eventual Cooperstown honorees, plus the controversial-but-elite Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. BBWAA writers were limited to 10 names on each ballot, and Lofton fell by the wayside without earning the minimum five percent to remain under consideration.
Following his baseball career, Lofton started a television production company named FilmPool, Inc., through whom he has found himself in hot water. Four years ago, he was sued by a former employee for sending sexually explicit images to female employees and for firing an employee in retaliation for reporting the aforementioned images. As of now, the results of the case do not appear to be public.
See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.
May 23, 2026; San Francisco, California, USA; San Francisco Giants third baseman Matt Chapman (left) and acting third base coach Ron Wotus (right) talk during the fifth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images
Matt Chapman is having his worst start to a season ever at the plate. Through 57 games and 239 plate appearances, he’s slashing .234/.314/.322 with a 9.6% walk rate and 22.6% strikeout rate that comes to a wRC+ of 85, or 15% worse than the league average. He turned 33 on April 28th, so that must be it, right? He is on the wrong side of 30 and now we’ve got a front row seat to what appears to be a sudden and steep decline, a situation that befalls every player. But I’m writing this post to tell you he’s not hitting poorly because of his age.
The agonized cries of the ballknowers who flood social media with Giants chatter have been demanding that Buster Posey trade him since, like, April 1st, and while his plate appearances this season have either been disappointing or depressing — thus giving oxygen to the caterwauling — there’s not an analytical case to be made that he’s cooked, washed, or otherwise not a major leaguer. Yes, his Statcast page has more blue in it than a therapist’s waiting room, but the red streaks are really interesting markers pointing towards a vein of success that has yet to be mined in 2026.
That’s still a Gold Glove-caliber defender. He’s still got my favorite skill of his: fantastic sprint speed for a third baseman. Does the fact that his defense hasn’t degraded at all suggest that the career averages for his bat are still in there? Yes, absolutely. How could it mean otherwise? The physical skills are still present, and it’s not a fantasy, it’s being measured by lasers during game action.
To put that in some context, let’s look at Nolan Arenado. From age 22-31, he was probably the best third baseman in the National League on both sides of the ball. He was 21% better than the league average for 10 seasons and amassed 44.8 wins above average (per FanGraphs). His defense alone was +108.8 Defensive Runs Above Average. But he fell off beginning with his age 32 season (107 wRC+) and went down again the following season (103) before bottoming out last season (84). He’s revived himself in his age-35 season with Arizona (130), but let’s just look at that break between his last great season before this year (149 wRC+ at age-31) and the year where he fell off (age-32: 107 wRC+). In that case, he lost value on defense along with the bat.
I know defense isn’t a convincing enough data point when trying to prove that Matt Chapman hasn’t been finished off by the aging curve, but just keep that in mind as you consider the other data point: his bat speed. Look at how his 75.8 mph average compares to the league:
The defense, foot speed, and bat speed don’t indicate a body in the process of betraying the mind. His chase rate has gotten worse and his walk rate has gone down — but that’s the case for most of the Giants. Still not evidence that age has buried his bat for good.
Then there’s this: over his last 13 games (55 PA), he’s 14-for-48 with 6 doubles, 7 walks, and 8 strikeouts, good enough for a line of .292/.382/.417 (.798 OPS). No, the power isn’t back, but that doesn’t mean it’s gone, necessarily. The Giants have lost all their power this season, and it could be for many reasons. But before I speculate on that, I also want to look at Chapman’s season.
Games 1-14 (59 PA): .315/.373/.463 (.863 OPS) Games 15-28 (59 PA): .250/.339/.288 (.627 OPS) Games 29-42 (58 PA): .115/.207/.173 (.380 OPS) Games 43-57 (63 PA): .250/.333/.357 (.690 OPS)
So, I cherrypicked a solid-looking span of games to get a sexier split, but overall, you can see how he’s been micro-streaking all season long. The absence of power is concerning, but this is where I think the non-age factors come into play; and, frankly, I think the implications are less preferable to Chapman simply aging out. Do the Giants have a good hitting plan? Do they scout well? Does the coaching staff have the trust of the players? Are they great support for the players? It would be hard to be worse than Bob Melvin’s staff, but at the end of the day, the Giants’ record speaks for itself, and if Hector Borg and Patrick Bailey can be scapegoated, it stands to reason that everyone is fair game. But from an “under the hood” standpoint, what’s afflicting Chapman has afflicted most Giants for most of the season and maybe confidence in his manager or the front office is an extra 2% that’s making this power slump drag on.
But maybe that’s why so many people out there want Chapman to be traded — let him go back to his career averages with some other team and no longer be the Giants’ problem. The trouble is, once you start liquidating players who can’t be helped by the current staff, you’ll probably run out of players very quickly. Matt Chapman was supposed to be a cornerstone player for the franchise in what was supposed to be a competitive window. Another year or two of Matt Chapman being MATT CHAPMAN wasn’t so outlandish a thought before the season and it isn’t one now and so people shouldn’t be so quick to abandon him.
Unless the Giants can get some really good prospects in return for him.
There’s no better way to spend your Sunday than sitting back and watching baseballs fly out of the park.
My MLB player props surrounding the home run market highlight Juan Soto, Matt Olson, and Casey Schmitt on May 31
Keep reading for the full breakdown below.
Best MLB home run props today
Player to hit a HR
Odds
Juan Soto
+273
Matt Olson
+325
Casey Schmitt
+370
💲Today's HR parlay
+7350
Home run pick: Juan Soto (+273)
There hasn’t been a better all-around hitter in baseball over the past 15 days than Juan Soto. The New York Mets star is batting .372 with six dingers over that span.
Soto has absolutely mashed the baseball this season, sitting in the 99th percentile in xSLG, 97th percentile in Barrel%, and 93rd percentile in average exit velocity.
Soto has beaten up right-handed pitchers, with a .659 SLG and nine of his 12 homers coming vs. righties.
Miami Marlins starter Janson Junk has allowed six homers over his last five starts, while ranking in the 33rd percentile for hard-hit rate.
Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: SNY, Marlins.TV
Home run pick: Matt Olson (+325)
Matt Olson smacked his 16th home run of the season yesterday, the second most in the NL. The Atlanta Braves slugger will enjoy hitting out of Great American Ball Park this afternoon, which has the third-highest Park Factor in the majors (103).
Cincinnati Reds starter Nick Lodolo also has an arsenal that will play right into Olson’s wheelhouse. Lolodo’s sinker has an xBA of .421 and an xSLG of .764, yet he’s still throwing it 23% of the time.
Olson has hit four of his home runs against the sinker, while batting .310 with a .643 SLG vs. that pitch.
Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Reds/TV, BravesVision
Home run pick: Casey Schmitt (+370)
Casey Schmitt has already equaled his 2025 home run total in just 50 games, with six of his 12 dingers coming in the last 13 games.
The San Francisco Giants are playing at Coors Field today, the most hitter-friendly venue in MLB by Park Factor (112).
Colorado Rockies starter Tanner Gordon ranks in the Bottom 5 percentile in Barrel rate and Bottom 17 percentile in hard-hit rate.
Schmitt has gone yard nine times vs. righties, while Colorado’s bullpen has also been weak, allowing 31 homers – the sixth most in the majors.
Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: NBCS-Bay Area, Rockies.TV
Chris Faria's 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 6-17, +4.14 units
Today’s HR parlay
Juan Soto
Bet Now +7350
Matt Olson
Casey Schmitt
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
NEW YORK, NY - MAY 25: Nick Lodolo #40 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches during the game between the Cincinnati Reds and the New York Mets at Citi Field on Monday, May 25, 2026 in New York, New York. (Photo by Michael Mooney/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The Atlanta Braves rolled into Great American Ball Park on Friday with the most wins in Major League Baseball and the league’s best winning percentage, too. So far, they’ve done nothing in their time in Cincinnati to diminish either count.
Atlanta claimed Friday’s series opener by the score of 8-3 and backed it up with a 5-2 win on Saturday, too. On Sunday, they’ll send Spencer Strider to the mound with a sweep on the mind.
Cincinnati will counter with lefty Nick Lodolo, who has slowly but surely begun to round into form after blister issues caused him to miss the entire month of April while recovering. His most recent outing against the New York Mets saw him finally dial-in the strike zone as he threw 6.0 IP of 6 H, ER, 0 BB, 7 K ball, the lone blemish against him being a 6th inning solo homer by Marcus Semien. Most important, though, were the lack of walks, as he’d walked 8 in just 9.2 IP across his previous two starts.
If there’s ever an indication that Lodolo is ‘on,’ it’s when he’s pounding the zone and not walking a soul, something he made a habit of during his breakout 2025. Cincinnati will hope upon hope that’s what they get from him on Sunday, as a loss would not only result in a sweep at home, but also would sink the Reds all the way back to the .500 mark for the season.
First pitch is set for 1:40 PM ET.
Here’s how the Reds will line up for the finale, with the return of Will Benson to the lineup to start and Spencer Steer again at 2B in lieu of the struggling Matt McLain:
The Chicago Cubs are slight favorites over the St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday Night Baseball, and I’m willing to lay the short moneyline price.
This is a lefty-lefty starter matchup, but Matthew Liberatore’s quality-of-contact issues create the cleaner scoring path for Chicago. Jordan Wicks brings enough volatility to keep the total pointed Over.
Here are my Cubs vs. Cardinals predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, May 31.
Who will win Cubs vs Cardinals today: Cubs moneyline (-105)
I’m backing the Chicago Cubs on the moneyline and would play it to -120.
Matthew Liberatore’s contact profile is a bad fit against Chicago. His 5.00+ xERA, 9.8% barrel rate, and 43.9% hard-hit rate leave too much room for damage, and the Cubs have made a big jump in both metrics over the last week (5%+ increase in both)
Jordan Wicks is volatile enough to keep this uncomfortable, but the St. Louis Cardinals do not bring the same scoring ceiling. In a near coin-flip market, I prefer Chicago’s offense, especially with the Cubs showing signs of their contact quality turning back up.
COVERS INTEL:The Cubs have an 11.4% walk rate, while the Cardinals' rate is just 8.7%. This is particularly significant with two erratic pitchers on the mound.
Cubs vs Cardinals Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-122)
I’m playing the Over because both lefties carry run-prevention risk, and I have a stronger conviction in the total than in the side. I would play this up to -132 at 8.5 and down to +100 at 9.
We talked about Liberatore above, and he’s a threat to give up a crooked number at any time. Wicks brings similar danger on the other side, allowing a .309 xBA, .493 xSLG, and 47.1% hard-hit rate against a St. Louis Cardinals lineup with the seventh-best expected slugging percentage.
Chris Hatfield's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 25-20, +4.64 units
Over/Under bets: 29-16, +15.29 units
Cubs vs Cardinals odds
Moneyline: Cubs -115 | Cardinals -105
Run line: Cubs -1.5 | Cardinals +1.5
Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Cubs vs Cardinals trend
The Cubs have cashed the first five innings (F5) team total Under in 15 of their last 20 games for +9.95 units and a 41% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Cardinals.
How to watch Cubs vs Cardinals and game info
Location
Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Date
Sunday, May 31, 2026
First pitch
7:20 p.m. ET
TV
NBC
Cubs starting pitcher
Jordan Wicks (0-1, 16.62 ERA)
Cardinals starting pitcher
Matthew Liberatore (2-3, 4.76 ERA)
Cubs vs Cardinals latest injuries
Cubs vs Cardinals weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
COVERS INTEL: Kelly’s 
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Ben Rice
Randy Arozarena
Juan Soto
Matt Olson
Casey Schmitt