Category: Baseball

The Jays have an off day today, which I’m ok with. After yesterdays loss, I could go for a week of off days. But then, tomorrow I’ll be sitting in front of the TV, ready to get punched in the gut again.

I often say that no one, including umpires, understand the balk rule. Yesterday was a good example.

So the balk was called because Hoffman did a ‘good inside move’ to make the pick off throw to second. Which he does on occasion. Which isn’t a balk. But, sometimes a good move will surprise an umpire and, occasionally, if something surprises an umpire, he’ll decide it is against the rules.

I’m sure if plate umpire Steven Jaschinski saw it on TV he would have thought nothing of it. But it was in front of him and it surprised him and, if it surprises him, it can’t be legal. Generally, if an umpire calls balk, the other three will also say it, because when a ruling is iffy, it is best you show a united front (and the umpires want to say ‘yeah, I saw it too’ whether they did or not’. Yesterday it was just Jaschinski.

It is the sort of thing, especially with a long argument delaying things further, that can throw a pitcher off. Moving a go ahead runner to third on the whim of an umpire, adds a fair bit of pressure. But Hoffman got a couple of strikeouts and all was good. For a moment.

And then there was this: I rarely buy into the ‘MLB favours the Yankees’ stuff, but the plate umpire let Caballero delay the game for a long time and the plate umpire never seemed to say ‘that’s enough’. Schneider comes out to argue something that was really worth arguing, and he got tossed quick. Of course, he may have said ‘key words’ that get you tossed. But it definitely seemed that Jaschinkis had a lot more patience with Caballero. I shouldn’t have used the word ‘seemed’, he definitely had a lot more patience with Caballero. I do think that umpires have a lot more patience for crap from Yankees’ players or managers.

I keep hoping that, with us not having couple of bullpen days, every time through the rotation, that we could ease the strain on the bullpen, but Corbin only went 3.2 innings and Scherzer went 3.1 last Wednesday, so we really aren’t going all that much better than a bullpen days quite often.

There was a lot to complain about in Yesterday’s game, mostly RISP stuff. But it was nice to see Nathan Lukes get hitting again, after a few lesser games. And George Springer and Kazuma Okamoto seem to have figured out how to make hard contact with the ball again. And Davis Schneider had two hits. After his time in Buffalo, where he seemed to be waiting for pitchers to walk him, I’m happy to see that. One game isn’t a trend, but it doesn’t hurt.

On the flip side, Yohendrick Piñango, Charles McAdoo and Jesús Sánchez all had a rough time with RISP. There are going to be days like that, but they did look like they were over matched.

I’m not really sure that McAdoo is that much of an upgrade on Lenyn Sosa, though it isn’t fair to judge him on 24 PA. I would feel better if he would take the odd walk. I guess he hasn’t shown MLB pitchers that they have to work off the edges yet. Sosa got 87 PA, McAdoo should get a similar number before we write him off.

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The Colorado Rockies own a NL-worst 13-25 record on the road this season.

With the Chicago Cubs having a massive starting pitching advantage, my Rockies vs. Cubs prediction and MLB picks are banking on Colorado's road woes continuing on Monday, June 15

Who will win Rockies vs Cubs today: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-105)

The Chicago Cubs rank fifth in OBP and tied for ninth in runs.  They should have success against Michael Lorenzen, who owns a 7.54 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, and ranks in the first percentile in Pitcher Run Value.

While Lorenzen slowed the Cubs in his last start, his xERA was nearly five runs lower than his average. He’s unlikely to replicate that performance.

It’ll be tough for the Colorado Rockies to score on Shota Imanaga, who has allowed two or fewer in four of five against teams outside the Top-15 in OBP vs. lefties.

Play the Cubs run line to -115.

COVERS INTEL:Lorenzen has allowed hard contact 42% of the time, the highest of any projected starter on Monday.

Rockies vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (-120)

Excluding the most recent series against the Athletics, which was played in an extreme hitter-friendly park, the Rockies have a .299 wOBA and .115 ISO on the road vs. lefties this season.

They have also struck out more than 26% of the time, which is a recipe for trouble against Imanaga. He ranks in the 96th percentile in chase rate and could be in for a ceiling performance in strikeouts.

The Cubs will score against Lorenzen, but 7+ runs may be needed to push this one Over the total.

I’d play the Under 9.5 to -130.

Rockies vs Cubs odds

• Moneyline: Rockies +170 | Cubs -210
• Run line: Rockies +1.5 (-115) | Cubs -1.5 (-105)
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+100) | Under 9.5 (-120)

Rockies vs Cubs trend

Chicago has hit the Game Total Under in 24 of the last 40 games (+6.8 units, 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rockies vs. Cubs.

How to watch Rockies vs Cubs and game info

Rockies vs Cubs latest injuries

Rockies vs Cubs weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Milwaukee Brewers are looking to maintain their lead in the NL Central as they’ll play host to the Cleveland Guardians this week, a team right in the mix in the AL Central. The Brewers, at 43-26, sit five games ahead of the second-place Cardinals in the division and currently hold the No. 3 seed in the league, behind only the Braves (46-25) and Dodgers (45-27). The Guardians, at 39-33, are tied with the White Sox atop the AL Central, though they lost their best player in José Ramírez to a hamate bone fracture (the same injury that shelved Andrew Vaughn earlier this year) over the weekend.

The Brewers are currently without pitchers DL Hall (late July), Brandon Woodruff (mid- to late June), Coleman Crow (late June), Quinn Priester (TBD), Carlos Rodriguez (TBD), Brian Fitzpatrick (likely out for season), Rob Zastryzny (late June/early July), Logan Henderson (early July), Jared Koenig (close to returning), and Angel Zerpa (out for season). The lone position player currently on the IL is outfielder Brandon Lockridge, who is slated for a late June return, though he’s had several injury flare-ups in his knee in recent weeks.

The Guardians are without the aforementioned Ramírez, who will be out until after the All-Star break after undergoing surgery. Outfielders Chase DeLauter and Angel Martínez are both currently listed as day to day, as DeLauter is awaiting MRI and CT scans after a crash into the right-field wall, and Martínez took a foul ball off his left foot, though the hope is he’ll return for this series. The lone pitcher on the IL is lefty Erik Sabrowski, who began a rehab assignment over the weekend.

Jake Bauers sits atop the Brewer home run leaderboard with 13 this season, though Jackson Chourio is quickly closing on him with nine homers in just 35 games. Speaking of Chourio, after a big week, he’s now slashing .322/.370/.572 for the year. Brice Turang has cooled off considerably but still has a .261/.378/.457 line with 10 homers and 12 steals, while Gary Sánchez and William Contreras have also flashed their power this year. Garrett Mitchell, Christian Yelich, Sal Frelick, Andrew Vaughn, Joey Ortiz, and David Hamilton round out the regulars, with Blake Perkins and Luis Rengifo serving as depth, though if speculation is to be believed, Rengifo will be replaced one way or another by shortstop prospect Cooper Pratt on Tuesday, as Pratt has already been confirmed to be headed to the majors. As a team, the Brewers are hitting .255/.340/.394 (.734 OPS ranks eighth), with 63 homers (27th), 370 runs (third), and 70 steals (tied for third).

Angel Martínez leads the Guards with 11 homers this season, adding 11 doubles, nine steals, and 33 RBIs. DeLauter and Kyle Manzardo both have seven homers, while former Brewer Rhys Hoskins has six homers, though he’s hitting just .185 (with a much more solid .330 OBP thanks to 34 walks). Brayan Rocchio, Steven Kwan, Daniel Schneemann, and former No. 1 overall pick Travis Bazzana are also in the mix. Austin Hedges and Patrick Bailey share time behind the plate, while David Fry, Gabriel Arias, and Stuart Fairchild provide depth. As a team, the Guardians are hitting .232/.317/.372 (.689 OPS ranks 27th), with 66 homers (24th), 289 runs (23rd), and 69 steals (fifth).

The Brewer bullpen is led by Aaron Ashby, who sports a 2.72 ERA with 59 strikeouts over 43 innings. Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, and Grant Anderson have also been reliable pieces, while Chad Patrick has been mostly good but struggled mightily against the A’s and Phillies in the last week. Drew Rom and Joel Kuhnel fill the back of the bullpen. As a staff, the Brewers have a 3.45 team ERA (fourth), including a 3.40 starter ERA (fourth) and a 3.51 bullpen ERA (ninth). They’ve struck out 675 batters (first) over 618 1/3 innings.

Tim Herrin and closer Cade Smith lead the Cleveland bullpen, as Herrin has a 2.92 ERA and 23 strikeouts over 24 2/3 innings, and Smith, who is 23-for-25 in save opportunities, has a 2.48 ERA with 49 strikeouts over 32 2/3 innings. Matt Festa ranks third on the team with 30 appearances, though he has a 4.30 ERA. Hunter Gaddis (3.86 ERA over 18 2/3 IP), Shawn Armstrong (3.32 ERA over 19 IP), Colin Holderman (1.73 ERA over 26 IP), Daniel Espino (no MLB appearances), and Will Dion (4.35 ERA over 10 1/3 IP) round out the bullpen. As a staff, the Guardians have a 3.75 team ERA (sixth), including a 3.80 starter ERA (sixth) and a 3.68 bullpen ERA (11th). They’ve struck out 658 batters (third) over 638 1/3 innings.

Probable Pitchers

Tuesday, June 16 @ 6:40 p.m.: LHP Robert Gasser (0-3, 6.38 ERA, 7.25 FIP) vs. RHP Slade Cecconi (3-5, 4.83 ERA, 4.29 FIP)

Gasser has had a rough go of it in his return to the majors, with a 6.38 ERA, 7.25 FIP, and 19 strikeouts over 18 1/3 innings in four starts. He’s taken the loss in each of his last three starts, though his last start came in Las Vegas, meaning it comes with the caveat of a lot of homers — six runs allowed on eight hits (four homers) and two walks, striking out seven over five innings. This marks Gasser’s first career appearance against Cleveland.

Cecconi, 27 next week, is in his fourth MLB season and second with the Guardians after beginning his career in Arizona. He’s been a serviceable albeit not great arm for them, with a 4.83 ERA, 4.29 FIP, and 61 strikeouts over 72 2/3 innings this year. He went five innings in a no-decision his last time out, allowing two runs on six hits and a pair of walks while striking out seven against the Yankees. This marks Cecconi’s first career appearance against Milwaukee.

Wednesday, June 17 @ 6:40 p.m.: RHP Brandon Sproat (1-4, 5.70 ERA, 5.56 FIP) vs. RHP Gavin Williams (9-3, 3.32 ERA, 3.81 FIP)

Sproat has still not quite been able to put things together with a 5.70 ERA, 5.56 FIP, and 57 strikeouts over 60 innings, though he’s coming off arguably the best start of his young career in Vegas. Over six innings, he allowed just one run (a solo homer) on four hits and one walk, striking out three on just 68 pitches. Unfortunately, the bullpen let him down, as they immediately allowed three runs in the seventh en route to a 4-3 A’s win. Like Gasser, this marks Sproat’s first career appearance against Cleveland.

Williams, 26, has quickly turned into a top-of-the-rotation type starter, as he turned in a 3.06 ERA season last year and has been nearly as good this season, with a 3.32 ERA, 3.81 FIP, and 99 strikeouts over 86 2/3 innings. After rattling off four consecutive wins from mid-May through early June, he took a no-decision his last time around, allowing four runs (three earned) on four hits and three walks, striking out five over five innings as the Guardians would go on to lose to the Yankees in extras. Williams has started against Milwaukee in each of the last two seasons, totaling nine innings with seven runs allowed on 10 hits and three walks, striking out 11 as he took a loss and a no-decision.

Thursday, June 18 @ 1:10 p.m.: LHP Shane Drohan (3-2, 3.59 ERA, 2.73 FIP) vs. LHP Parker Messick (6-3, 2.68 ERA, 3.33 FIP)

Drohan, who has now made three consecutive appearances from the rotation, hasn’t been quite as sharp as a starter, though he’s still keeping the Brewers in games. With a 3.59 ERA, 2.73 FIP, and 44 strikeouts over 42 2/3 innings, there’s clear potential for the young lefty. He’s coming off a loss, in which he allowed four runs on eight hits and no walks, striking out seven over five innings in a 9-8 loss to the Phillies. As is the case with Gasser and Sproat, this marks Drohan’s first career appearance against Cleveland.

Messick, 25, is in his second season and is off to a great start to his young career, with a career 2.69 ERA, 3.21 FIP, and 120 strikeouts over 120 1/3 innings through 21 starts. He’s coming off back-to-back losses against the Rangers and Yankees, though, as those two outings spanned 11 1/3 innings with eight runs allowed (seven earned) on 10 hits and four walks, striking out eight. This marks Messick’s first career appearance against Milwaukee.

How to Watch & Listen

Tuesday, June 16: Brewers TV; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)

Wednesday, June 17: Brewers TV; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)

Thursday, June 18: Brewers TV; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)

Prediction

This series features a trio of young pitching matchups, with the oldest starter among the six being Drohan at a whopping 27 years of age (Gasser is also 27, though slightly younger). Give me the Crew to win two of three.

The Dodgers broke even on the road last week, taking two of three games against the Pirates in Pittsburgh before losing two of three to the first-place White Sox in Chicago.

The offense was more productive than usual on the road trip, averaging over six runs per game, but the big inning has been the bane of the pitching staff of late. After allowing six runs in an inning in a home loss to the Angels on June 7, the Dodgers on the road allowed three runs and five runs in consecutive innings Wednesday in Pittsburgh, gave up a four-run inning on Thursday at PNC Park, then allowed a seven-run inning Friday and six runs in one frame on Sunday in the two losses in Chicago.

It’s been over a month since the Dodgers last lost consecutive games, but the shaky pitching of late has also prevented them from going on any sort of big run. They’ve alternated wins and losses over their last eight games.

Batter of the week

We’ll go with Max Muncy narrowly over Shohei Ohtani, though in reality either player could have won. Muncy batted two more times than Ohtani, and reached base two more times than Ohtani, giving him the razor-thin edge. Muncy, an excellent candidate to make his third All-Star team, leads National League third basemen in several categories, and his two home runs on Saturday gave him 225 with the Dodgers, three shy of tying Ron Cey for fifth-most in franchise history.

Pitcher of the week

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the rock of the pitching staff, a reliable and durable ace who has turned in two gems in a row. He took a perfect game into the eighth inning on Saturday in Chicago, and took a no-hitter into the ninth in a blowout win over the White Sox.

Yamamoto leads the Dodgers with six starts of at least seven innings, including four times in his last five outings.

Week 12 results

3-3 record
41 runs scored (6.83 per game)
33 runs allowed (5.50 per game)
.598 pythagorean win percentage

Year to date

45-27 record
386 runs scored (5.36 per game)
245 runs allowed (3.40 per game)
.697 pythagorean win percentage (50-22)

Miscellany

Milestone watch: On Tuesday in Pittsburgh, Freddie Freeman had two hits, and his seventh-inning RBI single off Brandan Bidois was his 2,500th career hit. Freeman is the 102nd player in major league history with 2,500 career hits, and the first new member of the club since Robinson Canó in 2019. The next big milestone within range for Freeman — besides passing a few more folks on the all-time doubles list — is 1,000 extra-base hits, an exclusive group that currently includes only 39 members. Freeman through Sunday has 976 career extra-base hits. He has 24 extra-base hits over his last 60 games, to give a rough idea of a possible timeline to get to 1,000.

Shortest possible distance to Petit: Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s flirtation with perfection saw him retire his first 23 batters faced on Saturday in Chicago, which came directly after the right-hander retired his final 22 batters faced in a gem against the Angels on June 6 at Dodger Stadium. Yamamoto’s 45 consecutive batters retired tied Mark Buehrle (July 18-28, 2009) for the second-longest streak in major league history, just one behind Yusmeiro Petit from July 22-August 28, 2014. The error by shortstop Mookie Betts in the eighth inning on Saturday would have been the record-tying 46th straight out for Yamamoto.

Congraduations: Dave Roberts was away from the team on Sunday in Chicago, to be with his daughter Emmerson as she graduated from Stanford. That put bench coach Danny Lehmann in charge for Sunday’s loss to the White Sox. This is the third time Lehmann, who was promoted to bench coach in 2023, has served as interim manager. Lehmann was also at the helm for a 2-1 road win over the San Diego Padres on May 6, 2023 while Roberts was at his son Cole’s graduation from Loyola Marymount, and also for a 6-5 home win over the Washington Nationals last June 20 while Roberts was suspended for a game for a benches-clearing incident the night before against the Padres.

Transactions

Wednesday: When the Dodgers needed a right-handed multi-position infielder after the Hernándezes got injured on consecutive days in May, they chose to bring back the previously-dispatched Santiago Espinal. The writing on the wall was there for Tyler Fitzgerald, who started at five positions for Oklahoma City after getting acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays on April 28. So it wasn’t all too surprising that Fitzgerald was released last week.

Thursday: Five days after initially getting scratched from the lineup, catcher Will Smith was placed on the injured list with neck inflammation. The open 40-man-roster spot courtesy of Fitzgerald’s release was filled by the call up of veteran backstop Chuckie Robinson, playing for a second straight season with the Dodgers.

Game results

• Tuesday: Dodgers 12, Pirates 3
• Wednesday: Pirates 9, Dodgers 8
• Thursday: Dodgers 8, Pirates 6
• Friday: White Sox 8, Dodgers 2
• Saturday: Dodgers 7, White Sox 1
• Sunday: White Sox 6, Dodgers 4

Previous reviews: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11

Up next

The Dodgers are back home for the middle portion of their 12 straight games against American League teams, running the Danny Clyburn gauntlet against the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles at Dodger Stadium. Monday night is an exclusive ESPN telecast.

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The Detroit Tigers offense has come alive this month, ranking second in runs scored against right-handed pitching.

Taking on a Houston Astros righty who struggles against left-handed bats, my Tigers vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks expect the road team to snap its two-game losing skid on Monday, June 15.

Who will win Tigers vs Astros today: Detroit Tigers (+110)

Kai-Wei Teng is a solid pitcher against right-handed hitters. Not so much against lefties.

He ranks in the 24th percentile in xBA and xwOBA when facing left-handed hitters, which is far from ideal in a matchup against the Detroit Tigers.

They have six left-handed batters in their projected lineup, including Kevin McGonigle, Riley Greene, and Kerry Carpenter.

They are very well equipped to do damage against Teng, whom the Houston Astros badly need distance from due to a taxed bullpen.

Look for the Tigers offense to get to Teng and set the table for a win.

Play to -105.

COVERS INTEL:The Tigers rank third in hard-hit rate against right-handed pitchers in June.

Tigers vs Astros Over/Under pick: Over 9.0 (+100)

The Tigers are in a great spot to score a handful of runs. They have a lot of good lefties to throw at Teng, and they’ve crushed right-handed pitchers of late.

Only the Rockies, Brewers, and Dodgers have posted a higher wOBA against righties than the Tigers in June. They also lead the majors in fly-ball rate.

The Astros should chip in as well. Troy Melton has pitched much worse than his ERA suggests, with his xFIP sitting two runs higher over the last 30 days.

With both offenses taking on vulnerable pitchers, I’d play the Over to -110.

Tigers vs Astros odds

• Moneyline: Tigers +110 | Astros -130
• Run line: Tigers +1.5 (-180) | Astros -1.5 (+155)
• Over/Under: Over 9.0 (+100) | Under 9.0 (-120)

Tigers vs Astros trend

Houston has hit the Game Total Over in 15 of the last 25 games at home (+4.9 units, 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Astros.

How to watch Tigers vs Astros and game info

Tigers vs Astros latest injuries

Tigers vs Astros weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

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The San Diego Padres will be looking to keep their winning ways alive tonight in the series opener against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. 

However, due to Lucas Giolito's struggles, my Padres vs. Cardinals predictions are eyeing the hosts to capitalize on the righty's inability to limit baserunners. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, June 16.

Who will win Padres vs Cardinals today: Cardinals moneyline (-140)

San Diego Padres starter Lucas Giolito has made just five appearances this season since signing late, and the underlying metrics are concerning. The veteran sports a 6.40 xERA overall while walking 7.84 hitters per nine innings.

Across his last two appearances, Giolito has lowered his xERA to 4.38, but command remains a major problem as he's still issuing 6.75 free passes per nine innings. That's a dangerous profile against a St. Louis Cardinals lineup that owns an impressive 132 wRC+ over the last 14 days and a .369 wOBA across its previous six contests.

Dustin May also enters tonight's start in good form. The right-hander has settled down lately, compiling a stellar 1.94 FIP over his last four appearances while limiting opponents to a 34.5% hard-hit rate during that span.

St. Louis will create opportunities against Giolito, while May is well-positioned to continue his recent success.

I'll play this pick up to -150.

COVERS INTEL: May is striking out 11.63 hitters per nine innings over the last month compared to 8.17 K/9 overall this season. 

Padres vs Cardinals Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 runs (-110)

The Cardinals' bullpen hasn't been amazing lately, posting a 5.02 xERA over the last week, but May typically pitches relatively deep into games and has worked into the sixth inning in two of his last three starts. That limits the amount of bullpen exposure against a Padres lineup that is batting just .224 on the road and owns an 89 wRC+ away from home.

On the other side, San Diego's bullpen has been excellent lately, posting a stellar 2.94 FIP across its last 24 2/3 innings while allowing only 0.73 home runs per nine. The Padres' relievers have also generated a 50% ground-ball rate during that stretch, another encouraging sign for the Under.

St. Louis should have their chances to score against Giolito, but the Padres' bullpen success could help prevent the game from turning into a high-scoring affair. With May capable of providing length and both offenses carrying some limitations, this game profiles as a relatively low-scoring affair.

Padres vs Cardinals odds

• Moneyline: Padres +127 | Cardinals -133
• Run line: Padres +1.5 (-163) | Cardinals -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-100) | Under 8.5 (-108)

Padres vs Cardinals trend

The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 50 games (+4.05 Units / 7% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Cardinals.

How to watch Padres vs Cardinals and game info

Padres vs Cardinals latest injuries

Padres vs Cardinals weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

2026 MLB Draft Preview: Cooper Harris scouting report.

The 2026 is about a month away — the first round kicks off on July 11, 2026 — so its time to start offering capsule looks at players the Texas Rangers could select with their top picks. The Rangers’ first round pick is at #16, their second round pick is at #54, and their third round pick is at #89.

Leading up to draft day, we will be doing writeups of some of the players who could end up getting selected by the Rangers with one of their first three picks. Today we are looking at Flower Mound righthanded pitcher Cooper Harris.

Cooper Harris is a local product, a 6’3”, 205 lb. righthanded pitcher out of Flower Mound High School. Harris just turned 18 last week, making him on the younger side for a high school prospect. He is committed to the University of Texas.

Harris has seen his stock rise this spring, most notably with an outing in the Amegy Bank Series that saw him strike out 17 batters in six no hit innings. Both MLB Pipeline and Keith Law have his fastball at 90-94 mph. Law says Harris works his fastball well at the top of the zone, while Pipeline says he can make his fastball rise, sink or cut with good command. His youth and build are such that he’s projected to be able to add velocity going forward.

Harris is a four pitch pitcher, with a curve, slider and changeup to go with the fastball, though, as is the case with most prep pitchers, he rarely throws his changeup. He gets good reviews for his athleticism and ability to repeat his delivery. He is seen as a strike thrower with a starting pitcher profile.

Baseball America has Harris at #85 on their board. MLB Pipeline has Harris at #62 on their board. Kiley McDaniel puts Harris at #82 on his top 150 list. Keith Law’s rankings have Harris at #53 on his board. Fangraphs does not have Harris on their board. Baseball Prospectus does not have Harris on their top 30 draft board.

The only high school pitcher-only the Rangers have taken in the top three rounds since their scouting and player development overall after the 2018 season is Tekoah Roby, taken in the third round in 2020, though Josh Owens, their 2025 third round pick, is a two-way player. Harris would seem likely to slot in the second or third rounds, or be a well-above-slot pick in the later rounds.

One can make some comparisons between Harris and 2023 6th rounder Caden Scarborough, who received an above-slot bonus as a late riser whose projectability the Rangers were betting on, and who is now a consensus top 100 prospect in baseball. Harris is currently more highly touted — at least in the public rankings — than Scarborough was heading into the draft, and so likely can’t be landed by offering him fourth round money, the way Scarborough was.

How strong Harris’s commitment to the University of Texas is isn’t clear, from what I’ve seen. If his hometown team comes calling with, say, third round money — the Rangers’ third round slot figure is $900,800 — one would like to think that would get him signed.

Previously:

Liam Peterson

Tyler Bell

Aiden Robbins

Jared Grindlinger

Logan Reddemann

Worcester: Canceled, Rain

The finale against the Red Wings (Nationals AAA) ended up as the second game canceled this series due to inclement weather. This was a blessing in disguise for both clubs’ pitching staff as they used a combined thirteen pitchers on Saturday in Brayan Bello’s first AAA start, so an extra day of rest isn’t the worst thing in the world.

Portland: W, 9-3 (BOX SCORE)

With Brannon and Arias both out of the lineup, Sunday afternoon still managed to look like batting practice for the Sea Dogs in the finale against the Fightin Phils (Phillies AA). They got 3 home runs and 7 total runs in the 5th inning and had 18 total knocks on the night. This offensive power included Stanley Tucker, newly promoted from Salem, introducing himself with 2 RBIs; he’d also reach base on a walk. Johanfran Garcia, meanwhile hit his eleventh homer of the season as he continues to rake.

John Holobetz backed the offense up with six strong scoreless innings, striking six out. Holobetz, the “player to be named later” in the Quinn Priester deal, remains an intriguing prospect, if not for his run prevention, for his ability to avoid barrels and keep his pitch count down, helping him go later in games later than his counterparts. The 4.70 ERA is concerning, but he could be worth a look to see if that low fastball also escapes being hit hard against batters with Major League experience in Triple-A. The team as a whole struggles with run prevention, so Holobetz now slides into second in the rotation in ERA (behind Wehunt) as well as in strikeouts (behind Mullins, who definitely is ready for an extended look.)

Greenville: L, 2-12 (BOX SCORE)

Marcus Phillips walked seven in another short and inopportune showing for the Drive against the Dash (White Sox High-A) and the relief staff made things worse by getting taken for twelve runs. The entire staff got hit around, walked ten (including Phillips’ seven) and allowed three home runs. Even if the pitching staff performed well, though, the Drive managed just four hits on the afternoon and took until sixth to put one run on the board, so that’s a tough hole to overcome on any day.

Salem: L, 5-9 (BOX SCORE)

This was a plausable win for the RidgeYaks if they either recorded more than 1 hit after the second inning or if they didn’t allow three consecutive multi-run innings, but both things were working in Fayetteville’s (Astros A) favor Sunday afternoon. Their only batter with multiple hits happened to be their nine-hole hitter. Salem is handed their eighth consecutive loss.

Have a motivational Monday.

Hickory starter Evan Siary went four innings, allowing five runs, striking out one and walking one while allowing a pair of homers. Owen Proksch gave up a run in an inning of work. Michael Trausch walked one and struck out two in 1.1 scoreless innings. Geury Rodriguez struck out both batters he faced.

Angel Arredondo was 2 for 4 with a triple and a walk. Daniel Flames was 2 for 4 with a double. Yolfran Castillo had a hit, two walks and a stolen base.

Hickory box score

Hub City starter D.J. McCarty threw six shutout innings, striking out eight and walking two.

Malcolm Moore was 2 for 5 with a double. Hector Osorio had a hit and a pair of walks. Maxton Martin homered. Paxton Kling had a walk and a hit by pitch before leaving the game for Chandler Pollard after the HBP. Pollard had a hit, a walk and a stolen base. Yeison Morrobel had a hit and a pair of walks.

Hub City box score

Dylan MacLean started for Frisco, throwing 6.1 shutout innings, striking out five and walking one. Joey Danielson struck out both batters he faced. Josh Trentadue allowed three runs in 0.2 IP, striking out two and walking one. Eric Loomis allowed three runs in 0.2 IP, including a walkoff homer.

Ian Moller homered and walked. Rafe Percih had a hit and two walks.

Frisco box score

Round Rock starter Josh Stephan allowed three runs in 5.1 IP, striking out five and walking three. Wilian Bormie struck out three and walked one in 1.1 IP, allowing one run. Gavin Collyer walked two of the three batters he faced. Alexis Diaz retired the one batter he faced. Luis Curvelo retired the two batters he faced, one via strikeout.

Rehabbing Josh Smith was the DH and went 1 for 3 with a double and two walks. Jarred Kelenic had a hit and a walk. Blaine Crim had a hit.

Round Rock box score

Rangers 6, Red Sox 4

• And…the Rangers don’t get swept!
• Yeah!
• (fist pump)
• Nathan Eovaldi once again comes to the rescue, giving the Rangers a Quality Start to break a losing streak.
• Eovaldi gave the Rangers seven innings, and when it came to Red Sox hitters other than Willson Contreras, things went very well for him.
• Contreras hit a pair of solo homers off of Eovaldi, accounting for two of the three runs he gave up in the game.
• The first of the two was a Fenway special, a high pop fly to left field that is a fly out just about everywhere else but that the dimensions of the Green Monster turn into a homer.
• Per Statcast, the only other stadium it would have been a homer in is whatever they are calling the stadium in Houston nowadays.
• I’m just going to go back to calling it Enron Field.
• The other one was legit, though.
• Nonetheless, Eovaldi’s homer tendencies this year are a bit problematic. He has now allowed 17 homers so far this season, the fourth most he’s allowed in any season in his career. Given we are just halfway through June, that’s not what you really want to see.
• His six strikeouts leave him just one behind Bronson Arroyo and Jim Whitney, who are currently tied for 210th on the all time strikeout list. Rick Porcello is right behind Eovaldi.
• After uncharacteristically walking three batters his last time out, Our Man Nate issued just a single walk on Sunday, indicating the restoration of balance in the universe.
• Jakob Junis was supposed to finish out the eighth but ended up getting just two outs and allowing a run in before being pulled for Jacob Latz with two outs in the inning, though it should be noted that another Jake Burger pop fly misadventure on a foul ball contributed to Junis’s problems.
• Latz handled things, though, retiring all four batters he faced, so it was all good.
• The Rangers started things off with a bang, in the form of a Wyatt Langford leadoff homer in the first, this of the legit variety. Kyle Higashioka hit a three run shot in the second to give the Rangers all the runs they would need in the game. The final two runs came on a Brandon Nimmo bases loaded double, with Nimmo hopefully dispelling the bases-loaded curse the offense has been laden with.
• Everyone’s favorite 2020 Rangers draft pick, Justin Foscue, had a 3 for 3 game before Skip Schumaker opted to use offensive catalyst Nicky Lopez as a pinch hitter for him once a righthander came into the game. Foscue is now slashing .268/.321/.451 on the year. That’s pretty good.
• And because the Mariners lost, the Rangers are back within a game of first place in the American League West, despite being a game below .500. The Rangers also remain tied with the A’s for WC3, because the American League as a whole hasn’t been all that.
• Nathan Eovaldi’s sinker maxed out at 96.2 mph, averaging 94.0 mph. Jakob Junis hit 94.6 mph with his fastball. Jacob Latz’s fastball touched 97.4 mph.
• Wyatt Langford’s home run was 106.8 mph. Brandon Nimmo had a 105.6 mph double and a 100.9 mph groundout. Kyle Higashioka had a 104.4 mph single and a 100.2 mph home run. Jake Burger had a 104.3 mph double. Justin Foscue had a 104.3 mph single.
• Back home now, for a six game homestand that features a weird off day on Wednesday because of the World Cup.

Meet the Mets

With little in the way of problems or roadblocks, the Mets continued New York’s good weekend with a win on Sunday and a series victory over those dastardly Braves.

Choose your recap: Amazin’ Avenue, MLB.com, Newsday, New York Daily News, New York Post

Optioned a little over two weeks ago, Tobias Myers is back with the big league Mets and will pitch the first couple innings of today’s game before David Peterson and/or the bullpen take the bulk of the work.

Much like you probably are, Francisco Lindor is thinking about the Knicks and finding inspiration.

Around the National League East

The Marlins nearly sent Paul Skenes’ ERA up to 3.00 as they left Pittsburgh with a 4-2 win and extended Max Meyer’s season-long winning streak to 15 starts.

Miles Mikolas pitched seven shutout innings and eight different Nationals scored runs in their 10-1 battering of the Mariners.

Doing what they can to help Jacob Misiorowski’s Cy Young case between starts, the Brewers scored four runs off Cristopher Sanchez and handed the Phillies a 4-0 loss.

Continuing their chain of having baseball’s best young hitter, the Nationals have had 14 years of Bryce Harper, then Juan Soto, and now James Wood.

Around Major League Baseball

John Schneider is not a fan of Jose Caballero’s pesky, but legal, way of messing around within the confines of the pitch clock.

In the Nationals’ beatdown, Josh Naylor and Andres Munoz both left the game, but the Mariners aren’t overly concerned about the health of either one.

Following his historic performance over the weekend, the Brewers are going to give Jacob Misiorowksi a pre-planned extra day off before his next start.

Two months after giving him a $50M extension, the Brewers are calling up prospect Cooper Pratt to make his major league debut.

The Colorado Rockies, having spent over a decade playing their home games at Coors Field before a humidor was used, set their franchise record for runs in a game with 23 in Las Vegas.

In one of two blows to American League Central stars and their hands, Vinnie Pasquantino was placed on the injured list and underwent surgery for a fractured hamate bone.

As for the second blow, the Guardians placed Jose Ramirez on the injured list with the same ailment and will have to rely on someone, anyone to step up in his place.

This Date in Mets History

On this date in 1977…well.

Welcome to week 12 of our 2026 NL Central Power Rankings — let’s rank some teams!

1. Milwaukee Brewers (43-26); 3-3 this week; 95.7% chance to make postseason (FanGraphs)

The Brewers hold their lead atop the division with a 3-3 week that felt both much better and much worse. They dropped two of three to the Athletics in a Las Vegas slugfest before winning two of three against the Phillies in Milwaukee over the weekend.

Jackson Chourio raked this week, leading the team with 13 hits, including five homers, driving in 10, scoring eight runs, and slashing .448/.452/.966. Jake Bauers added a pair of homers, while six other players had a homer apiece. William Contreras, who had one of those homers, added a pair of doubles as part of a nine-hit week. Andrew Vaughn went 6-for-14 with a homer, two doubles, and five walks to one strikeout.

Jacob Misiorowski continues to dominate, as he put together one of the best pitching performances I’ve ever witnessed. In a complete game shutout against the Phillies on Friday night, Miz allowed just one hit and struck out an incredible 15 batters on just 95 pitches. Kyle Harrison, who got roughed up in Las Vegas to begin the week, bounced back to toss six shutout frames against the Phils on Sunday to get the win. Grant Anderson, Coleman Crow, Trevor Megill, and Abner Uribe all had scoreless weeks for the bullpen, totaling nine innings with 10 strikeouts.

The Brewers get the day off on Monday before hosting the Guardians for three games. They’ll then head east to visit the Braves and Reds beginning Friday night in Atlanta.

2. St. Louis Cardinals (38-31); 3-3 this week; 45.8% chance to make postseason

The Cardinals also put together a .500 week, taking two of three in New York against the Mets but dropping two of three to the Twins in Minnesota over the weekend.

Alec Burleson slugged five homers for St. Louis this week, adding a double and driving in eight. Iván Herrera tied with JJ Wetherholt for the team lead with eight hits, and Herrera slugged two homers to go with two steals. Jordan Walker drove in a team-high nine thanks to two homers and two doubles.

Dustin May put together the best start of the week for St. Louis, earning the win as he went six scoreless innings with six strikeouts. Andre Pallante allowed two runs and struck out five over six innings in a winning performance, while Matt Svanson led the bullpen with 4 2/3 perfect innings across three appearances, striking out four.

The Cardinals return home for a quick three-game set with the Padres before heading to Kansas City to take on the Royals over the weekend, with an unconventional off day on Saturday thanks to the World Cup, which will host a game at GEHA Field (formerly Arrowhead Stadium) right across the street from Kauffman Stadium that night.

3. Pittsburgh Pirates (36-36); 2-4 this week; 38.3% chance to make postseason

The Pirates had a rough homestand this week, dropping two of three to both the Dodgers and Marlins as they were outscored 42-26 across the six games.

Tyler Callihan, Brandon Lowe, and Bryan Reynolds all had two homers this week, as Reynolds tied with Jake Mangum for the team lead with eight hits. Overall, Reynolds slashed .333/.407/.708 with three doubles and a pair of walks. Spencer Horwitz, Ryan O’Hearn, Nick Gonzales, and Jared Triolo each added five hits on the week.

It was a rough week for the Pittsburgh pitching staff, including ace Paul Skenes, who allowed two runs across six innings in both of his starts, though he still struck out 17 to bring him to 99 for the season. Bubba Chandler allowed two runs and struck out six over 5 2/3 innings, and Braxton Ashcraft allowed two runs and struck out four over five innings. Isaac Mattson, Mason Montgomery, Yohan Ramírez, and Dennis Santana all had scoreless weeks for the bullpen, totaling eight innings with six strikeouts.

Pittsburgh is now headed west, as they’ll visit the A’s (in Sacramento) and Rockies with an off day scheduled for Thursday.

4. Chicago Cubs (37-35); 3-3 this week; 42.9% chance to make postseason

The Cubs were on the West Coast this week, as they dropped two of three against the Rockies before taking two of three in San Francisco against the Giants for a .500 week.

Michael Busch and Ian Happ both homered twice this week, while Pete Crow-Armstrong led the offense with nine hits, including a homer, three doubles, and a triple. Seiya Suzuki and Alex Bregman both homered, as Bregman put up seven hits and Suzuki added six.

Javier Assad and Shota Imanaga led Chicago’s rotation this week, as Assad went six scoreless innings with five strikeouts and Imanaga went five scoreless with seven strikeouts. Ryan Rolison went 3 2/3 scoreless innings across three appearances (including as an opener), striking out three. Phil Maton, Hoby Milner, and Caleb Thielbar were also scoreless for the bullpen, totaling 9 1/3 innings with seven strikeouts.

Chicago will now host the Rockies for their second series in a week before an off day on Thursday. They’ll then welcome the Blue Jays to town for a three-game set this weekend.

5. Cincinnati Reds (33-37); 2-4 this week; 4.8% chance to make postseason

The Reds continue to struggle, as they dropped two of three against the Padres in San Diego before losing a weekend series at home against the Diamondbacks.

Noelvi Marte slugged three homers and a double, though he had just three RBIs for the week. Eugenio Suárez homered and tied Marte for the team lead with six hits, while JJ Bleday added two homers and two doubles. Sal Stewart and Spencer Steer also homered.

All of Cincinnati’s starting pitchers put together a solid week, as Andrew Abbott, Chase Burns, Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer, and Rhett Lowder totaled 33 1/3 innings across their six starts (Abbott made two starts), allowing 11 runs (2.97 ERA) and striking out 34. Unfortunately, none of those starts resulted in a win, as they combined to go 0-1, with the lone loss attributed to Abbott. Sam Moll and Tony Santillan were both scoreless for the bullpen.

Cincinnati wraps up the homestand to begin the week with three games against the Mets. After an off day on Thursday, they’ll head to New York to face the Yankees.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been slipping over the last week of the season. The Bucs are just 3-7 in their last 10 games and have slipped back to hovering around .500. This might be the time where the team needs to make some aggressive changes, and I think one of those changes should be in the starting rotation.  

Bubba Chandler has been very inconsistent this season for Pittsburgh. In an appearnce against the Atlanta Braves, he pitched 5 1/3 innings. He only allowed 1 hit and 2 earned runs and seven strikeouts. 

In that game, we saw something we haven’t seen all season and that was Chandler not starting the game. The 23-year-old pitcher came into the game in the second inning, with Mason Montgomery getting the start. 

On Saturday, Chandler started agains the Marlins and went for 5 2/3 innings, giving up 2 runs on 3 hits with 6 strikeouts. He didn’t get the win.

With the recent inconsistencies that Chandler has had, maybe fresh changes like that is exactly what he needs. Chandler is just 2-7 on the season and has a 4.76 ERA. He has also struggled with walks this season with 41, which is the most by any pitcher on the Pirates pitching staff.  

We saw the right-handed pitcher come out of the bullpen last season when he was called up, and he threw well. I think moving Chandler to the bullpen and giving Carmen Mlodzinski his starting rotation role back could be beneficial. 

Mlodzinski has shown a lot of promise this season in his 13 games played. The 27 year old pitcher is 4-3 on the season with a 4.02 ERA and a WHIP of 1.40. 

I think Chandler has a lot of potential, but the pitching across the board has been a problem for the Pirates over the last couple of weeks. Making some changes like this could light a fire under Chandler and make him a better pitcher.

I don’t think the young pitcher has lived up to his high expectations yet, but this is just his first full season in the majors. If Chandler can be better utilized in relief than as a starting pitcher, the Pirates ought to consider the adjustment. It has the chance to help both the rotation and the bullpen.

I feel like I’m been pretty negative over the last few weeks of Brushback articles. I need to change up my mentality a lil’ bit.

This 2026 Red Sox season, as we all know by now, has been tragic thus far. Not enough offense, the pitching isn’t enough to carry them to victory on most nights in spite of their best efforts, the front office seems completely aimless, yada yada yada. These are things that you haven’t already read before on OTM, be it from me or from any of my colleagues. Frankly, these are themes you’re likely gonna continue to see as the summer progresses as well. The Craig Breslow question isn’t going away anytime soon—well, unless FSG decides to give him a pink slip in the coming days—and even after a series win against the Texas Rangers at home (wait, we’re allowed to win multiple games at Fenway????), the dreams of seeing the Sox qualify for postseason ball seem to be just that at the moment: dreams.

But we’ve got nothing but precious time to complain about all the shit that’s going wrong for Boston. The organizational soap opera will continue, and I frankly don’t want to sit here and repeat the same talking points/complaints each and every week that I sit down to write about this stupid team. I’m sure you don’t want to read the same article over and over and over again, either. What’s the point of essentially copying and pasting the same Brushback article all the time at this point? We’ll have weeks—maybe even months—to perform an autopsy on this season, how poorly the roster was constructed, all that fun stuff. Our regularly scheduled bellyaching will continue long into the dog days, short of something astonishing happening in Boston over the next few months (I’m not holding my breath, but stranger things have happened; after all, the Knicks just won a championship).

So while I can’t sit here and tell you that my entire outlook on the Red Sox is positive—because it clearly isn’t—I at least wanted to shake up the mojo a little bit and shine a light on a guy who I haven’t given enough credit to here on the website: Ceddanne Rafaela.

It’s Monday Morning Brushback time, y’all.

What a year that Boston’s center fielder is having, folks. Through his first 66 games he’s logged a 2.2 fWAR; he’s on pace to smash the career high of 3.8 he set last season. The numbers leading into Saturday’s game don’t lie, as Jake Iggy of BoSox Talk pointed out on The Everything App:

A lil’ bit of traditional stats if you prefer the old school, a lil’ bit of nerdy stats if you don’t like Manny Machado. Either way you slice it: he’s been a productive hitter, as evidenced by the 127 OPS+ he’s notched leading up to Sunday’s finale against Texas.

Now if I told you I was gonna write 1,000-ish words about a guy with a .291/.346/.457 triple slash leading up to that Sunday night matchup at Fenway, you might scratch your head a little. “Sure, that’s a very solid output,” you may think to yourself, “but why are we focusing on him entirely here?”

Well, two things:

1. Again, I’m trying something positive here to distract myself from the rest of the dumpster fire that is this season, and
2. Not all 127 OPS+ outputs are created equally

We all knew that Ceddy had some juice in the bat, but the big question with him had been consistency; he’s got a bit of JBJ in him due to his defensive wizardry and his affinity to switch between hot and cold in a jiffy.

One word jumps out at me when looking under the hood when trying to figure out Rafaela’s progression in 2026: competitiveness.

The major issue I had with Ceddanne’s plate approach in the early stages of his career was that he gave up too many ABs too easily. Chasing after junk, not working counts, making bad swing decisions, etc. Even when you are making contact, an approach like that is going to throw you off-kilter when you’re stuck in between.

Now, even when you’re just watching him, Ceddy looks much more comfortable at the plate compared to where he was when he first started in the bigs. Of course, some of that comes with time, but it’s quite noticeable to me nowadays. If you don’t trust the good ol’ eye test: the simple fact that he’s cut his whiff rate by nearly 10 percentage points since the 2024 season, per Savant, should do a lot of the heavy lifting here. He’s not getting fooled as often and that’s allowed him to deal more damage at the dish.

To take it a step forward and to play with my keyword for Rafaela: as of Sunday morning, he ranked within the top 75 (just barely—he was number 75 exactly) of competitive swings across MLB this season. A fancy dancy Statcast metric, a competitive swing is defined as “the fastest 90% of a player’s swings, plus any 60+ MPH swings resulting in an exit velocity of 90+ MPH.” For reference: Ceddy had 1,080 and 1,104 competitive swings in 2024 and 2025 respectively. Rafaela put the ball in play through 31.6% of those competitive swings in 2024 and 36.3% in 2025.

This season, that rate is 38.3%. It’s a marginal improvement, yes, but it’s one that I think speaks to the improved plate approach. A better approach with improved plate discipline leads to fewer whiffs, which leads to more competitive ABs in general, which leads to more competitive swings, which leads to profit.

None of this even mentions the knack Rafaela has to deliver a clutch knock, by the way, which is a trait that he’s certainly shown during his big league tenure.

Now, granted, Rafaela might be the beneficiary of some BABIP luck thus far in 2026. His xwOBA and xSLG metrics are both below the 30th percentile leaguewide, and his expected batting average is only around .250 as I’m writing this Sunday morning. The signs of continued progression are there, however, so I’m not totally spooked by those analytics. Improvement isn’t always linear, and he’s still a relatively young guy. There’s more room for growth, and that starts with the game-to-game approach that Ceddy’s implementing in the better’s box.

All of this is to say that Ceddanne Rafaela has to be an All-Star. He probably doesn’t start the game over Byron Buxton, sure, but who else has an obvious claim to an outfield position over him this season? The only guy I can think of who would steal a spot over Ceddy is probably Julio Rodriguez of the Mariners due to his power numbers and his star status, but I’ll take the guy who’s OPS is 50 points higher and is a platinum glove type of fielder. Get Ceddanne to the Midsummer Classic, baby.

Is the team bad? Yes. Is this going to be a long summer in Boston? Probably. Is the future unclear? I’m too scared to answer that question in earnest. But do we have Ceddanne Rafaela patrolling center? Yes, yes we certainly do. So we got that going for us, which is nice.

Song of the Week: “Two Of Us” by The Beatles

Hey, these guys are pretty good.

Until next time, friends! Go Sox.

One of the more fun things to do in statistics is what I lovingly call the Player A and B test. It is more of psychological ploy than anything else. Unfortunately, we have feelings that get attached to every player on or off our team. So, comparing two players is next to impossible when their names are attached. That comes with positive and negative bias. For instance, comparing Jose Altuve to any historical second baseman is nearly unfair. We have all kinds of baggage attached that muddies the waters there.

I did not invent the Player A and B test. Standing on the shoulders of giants leaves me cold (bonus to anyone that gets that reference). We simply compare numbers and remove the names. One of the troubles is that some numbers become identifiers by themselves. Like if I say that Player A drove in 191 runs in a season then you automatically know I am referring to Hack Wilson.

In this edition of the test, we are comparing one Astros pitcher to a historical pitcher. We will prorate the numbers to assume a full season for this Astros pitcher. In doing so, hopefully we will muddy the identities just enough to make this a fun exercise. We will include some basic numbers and then another table with some sabermetric numbers. First, let’s start with some basic numbers.

Unfortunately, this is one of those cases where if you know your baseball history then you already know the two pitchers. Of course, I am going to reveal it at the end, so if you don’t know you can live in suspense. I should point out that Pitcher A surrendered more home runs than any pitcher in the league in that season and Player B did too. Otherwise, these pitchers look extremely similar and that is always the fun part of the Player A and B test.

I should also point out that both pitchers are in very similar stages of their respective careers at this point. Player A is 25 while Player B is 26, so both respective teams could collectively believe that these pitchers could grow and turn into something. However, this is usually where the comparisons break down. The era is different. The home ballparks are different. The teams are different. So, there is a ton that gets in the way of suggesting these two were separated from birth.

There are some numbers I like for quick reference at baseball-reference.com. I should point out that these aren’t the only numbers out there and some of the more analytically minded will point out they may not be the best ones. However, they are fairly easy to interpret, so they make a comparison like this easy. ERA+ measures a pitcher’s ERA against the league average with a ballpark adjustment included. 100 is average with everything under that being below average. Most of you are familiar with bases per out which has become a bit of a signature for me. The lower the better on that front.

Weighted adjusted average percentage calculates what a pitcher’s winning percentage would be with an average team. So, this includes average run support, average bullpen support, and average defense behind the pitcher. This immediately spills us into a neutral record. You simply multiply the adjusted percentage by the total number of decisions. Finally, we get the percentage of quality starts for the pitcher.

These are two very similar pitchers in most respects. The BPO is radically different but Player B somehow comes out looking better in the subsequent categories. This is because he had bad batted ball luck. Of course, I am being cagey in order to avoid spilling the beans on who we are talking about, but these numbers likely have left enough bread crumbs for you to figure out at least one of the pitchers.

Neither of these are good pitchers, but the adjusted won-loss records show that neither is as bad as they look initially. They pitched in different eras which could account for the quality start percentage. However, the innings totals are not all that different and even when we include the era and ballpark adjustment, we see that these two pitchers are very comparable.

The Big Reveal

Player A is Mike Maroth from 2003 and Player B is Mike Burrows from this season with his numbers prorated to the end of the season. The situations are obviously vastly different which is why this is such a big deal. Those 2003 Tigers lost 119 games. They were never in the hunt, so they were just happy that someone was there to give them some innings. As soon as the Tigers were ready to be competitive then they were ready to move on from Maroth.

Burrows is in a different situation. For one, he was supposed to be a number two starter, That obviously hasn’t worked out, but the adjusted winning percentage shows he hasn’t been as bad as the numbers would suggest. However, the team has designs on getting back in the race, so they have to weigh the benefits of getting five innings every time out with a pitcher giving up runs at a pace that has them on pace to lose most of his starts.

I’m not supposed to make declarative statements in the lab and I really can’t in this case. On the one hand, every important metric points towards positive regression. On the other hand, it is hard to be patient and wait that out when every loss hurts. This is one of those decisions where I can’t damn them either way they go. What do you think? Would you pull Burrows from the rotation when Hunter Brown returns?