CINCINNATI — The Cincinnati Reds placed left-handed starter Brandon Williamson on the 15-day injured list with left shoulder fatigue after undergoing an MRI.
“Structurally it came back good,” Reds manager Terry Francona said. “He will go on a shoulder program (for) range of motion, strength, all that stuff.”
Williamson, 28, was pulled after three innings in a 13-2 loss to the Colorado Rockies after allowing four runs on four hits. He walked four and struck out four.
He is 2-3 with a 6.11 ERA in six starts after missing all of last season following left elbow surgery in September 2024.
Williamson made the club out of spring training when fellow left-hander Nick Lodolo landed on the IL with a blister on his left index finger. A setback for Williamson was not unexpected.
“When he made the club, because he pitched so well in the spring, we were all concerned that, OK, it’s going to be every five or six days, there’s going to be some hiccups,” Francona said.
The Reds (19-11) are off to their best 30-game start since 2006 despite being without starters Hunter Greene and Lodolo, and with Andrew Abbott struggling with a 6.59 ERA in six starts.
Greene has started throwing and is projected to return in July. Lodolo will likely need one more rehab start before being activated. Right-hander Zach Maxwell was recalled from Triple-A.
TORONTO, CANADA - APRIL 6: Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Dodgers runs off the field with teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto #18 after their team defeated Toronto Blue Jays in their MLB game at the Rogers Centre on April 6, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Dodgers are done with (March and) April, and have allowed the fewest runs in MLB at 3.26 per game. The rotation leads the majors with 5.85 innings per start on average with a sparkling 2.83 ERA.
Superlatives are plentiful among the Dodgers pitchers so far this season:
Tyler Glasnow led the staff in innings (38 2/3) and strikeouts (47), to go with his 2.56 ERA and 2.16 xERA and a rotation-best 32.6-percent strikeout rate. He has an eight inning start and a seven-inning start.
Justin Wrobleski has a stingy 1.50 ERA (and 3.71 xERA) of his own and like Glasnow has starts of eight and seven innings.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has a pair of seven-inning starts and has been steady as usual, with his 2.87 ERA (though 4.01 xERA) in his six starts. He’s second on the staff in innings (37 2/3) and third in strikeouts (32).
Among the relievers, Alex Vesia has a 1.69 ERA and 2.74 xERA and 34-percent strikeout rate in his 13 games and 10 2/3 innings. Tanner Scott leads the team with 15 appearances to date, with a 2.03 ERA and 3.99 xERA, with 13 strikeouts and only two walks in 13 1/3 innings. Jack Dreyer (3.46 ERA, 2.90 xERA) and Will Klein (2.77 ERA, 2.20 xERA) have each pitched 13 innings, with a 21.6-percent strikeout-minus-walk rate for Dreyer and 20 percent for Klein.
Today’s question is who is your Dodgers pitcher of the month for March/April?
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - APRIL 29: Brian Fitzpatrick #35 of the Milwaukee Brewers pitches against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the seventh inning in his MLB debut at American Family Field on April 29, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Former Rutgers baseball player Brian Fitzpatrick was called up from Triple-A Nashville to the MLB’s Milwaukee Brewers last night, pitching 1.1 innings in the team’s April 29th game against the Arizona Diamondbacks. It was the first time that a former Scarlet Knight appeared in an MLB game since both Brian O’Grady and Patrick Kivlehan played for the Padres in 2021. This is also the first Rutgers call-up to the MLB since O’Grady did it in 2019.
A 10th-round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft by the Brewers, Fitzpatrick has appeared in 81 games across all levels of the Brewers farm system, posting a 3.49 ERA in 172.2 innings.
In his first game for the Brewers, he pitched for 1.1 innings, surrendering 2 hits and 1 walk with zero strikeouts over that time. Arizona would end up winning the game 6-2, tallying four runs in the fourth inning alone.
Fitzpatrick started the 2026 season strong for Nashville, posting a 0.00 ERA in 10.1 innings with 11 strikeouts to just two walks, earning him the call-up to the major leagues.
During his senior season for Rutgers in 2022, he posted a 3-1 record with a 3.91 ERA, 28 strikeouts, and 9 walks in 23 innings. The last game of his collegiate career was a win over Indiana in the Big Ten tournament, where he posted four shutout innings and six strikeouts en route to the Knights’ victory.
Boston, MA - April 19: Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Framber Valdez throws in the first inning. The Boston Red Sox played the Tigers at Fenway Park on April 19, 2026. (Photo by Matthew J. Lee/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) | Boston Globe via Getty Images
Detroit Tigers (15-16) vs. Atlanta Braves (22-9)
Time/Place: 12:15 p.m., Truist Park SB Nation Site: Battery Power Media: Detroit Sportsnet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network Pitching Matchup: LHP Framber Valdez (2-1, 3.41 ERA) vs. RHP Bryce Elder (3-1, 1.93 ERA)
The Mets announced Thursday morning that Luis Robert Jr. is heading to the 10-day injured list with a lumbar disc herniation. He joins a growing list of Mets on the IL that includes Francisco Lindor, Jorge Polanco and Kodai Senga.
Robert, 28, has been battling back discomfort for several days and underwent an MRI on Wednesday. He last appeared in a game on April 26. So the Mets will be able to backdate the IL to April 27.
The timing is brutal for Robert, who was showing early signs of being a successful "change of scenery" guy.
Robert was acquired from the Chicago White Sox in the offseason and had shown some early promise. He was hitting .258 with a .372 on-base percentage and .379 slugging percentage before the back became an issue. He has since slumped to .224/.327/.329.
Health has always been an issue with Robert. He has played in just 234 games since his breakout 2023 season, when he hit .264 with 38 home runs and 20 steals for Chicago. That remains his only season in which he has played more than 110 games.
The Mets called up corner infielder Eric Wagaman from Triple-A to fill Robert’s roster spot. The Mets' center field options are now veteran Tyrone Taylor and rookie Carson Benge.
That’s not exactly reassuring for Mets manager Carlos Mendoza, who is on the hot seat after a brutal start to the season. They had a 12-game losing streak, the organization’s longest in 22 years. The Mets had the worst record in baseball, 10-20, when they announced the move on Thursday morning.
Apr 24, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff (53) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images | Benny Sieu-Imagn Images
The Brewers came out hot in last night’s game but were unable to hold on for the series win against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Today’s rubber match pits veteran starter Brandon Woodruff against right-hander Michael Soroka.
Woodruff, the longest-tenured member of the Brewers’ starting rotation, has been a steady presence through five starts. He carries a 3.77 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP into today’s game. Woodruff took the loss in his last outing, allowing five hits and three earned runs through five innings against the Pirates.
Soroka, who the Diamondbacks signed to a one-year, $7.5 million dollar contract in the offseason, has been worth every cent thus far. Arizona has won four of his five starts this season, with Soroka picking up the win in all four. He currently sports a 2.60 ERA and has already accumulated 0.8 bWAR on the season.
Brice Turang is hitting second again, so that opens up the leadoff spot for Garrett Mitchell. Mitchell had a hot start to the season, but he’s struggled with pitches in the top third of the zone and opposing pitchers have adjusted accordingly. Mitchell’s batting average is now down to .230, with just two hits over his last seven games (19 at-bats).
William Contreras and Jake Bauers will hit third and fourth, respectively. Tyler Black, who had a three-hit day in the series opener, will DH and hit fifth. He’s followed by Luis Rengifo and Sal Frelick, who has two hits and three runs scored so far this series. Rounding out the bottom of the lineup are Greg Jones (-0.6 bWAR in 17 at-bats) and David Hamilton, playing shortstop today.
As usual, you can catch today’s game on Brewers.TV, WTMJ 620, and the Brewers Radio Network. First pitch is set for 12:40 p.m.
CINCINNATI, OHIO - APRIL 24: Andrew Abbott #41 of the Cincinnati Reds walks across the field in the third inning against the Detroit Tigers at Great American Ball Park on April 24, 2026 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Cincinnati Reds will take on the Colorado Rockies on Thursday afternoon in Great American Ball Park in the series finale, a rubber match that will determine who claims the series victory. In it will feature former Red Michael Lorenzen on the bump for the Rockies, a mound he’ll share to start with lefty Andrew Abbott.
Abbott has struggled mightily on the back of his All-Star performance in 2025, and this would be an excellent spot to get back on the good foot.
First pitch is set for 12:40 PM ET. Lineups for both clubs are listed below.
Apr 28, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Hunter Dobbins (40) throws in the outfield before the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
The St. Louis Cardinals will continue their PNC Park party week on Thursday as Hunter Dobbins will get his first start for St. Louis this season and he will be up against a guy you may have heard of named Paul Skenes who gets the start for Pittsburgh. First pitch is scheduled for 11:35am central time.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - APRIL 12: Freddy Peralta #51 of the New York Mets throws a pitch against the Athletics during the second inning at Citi Field on April 12, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Caean Couto/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Mets lineup
Bo Bichette – 3B Juan Soto – DH MJ Melendez – LF Mark Vientos – 1B Brett Baty – RF Marcus Semien – 2B Carson Benge – CF Luis Torrens – C Ronny Mauricio – SS
SP: Freddy Peralta (RHP)
Nationals lineup
James Wood – RF Luis Garcia – 1B Daylen Lile – LF CJ Abrams – SS Jose Tena – DH Jorbit Vivas – 3B Nasim Nunez – 2B Drew Millas – C Jacob Young – CF
SP: Miles Mikolas (RHP)
Broadcast info
First pitch: 1:10 PM EDT TV: SNY Radio: Audacy Mets Radio WHSQ 880AM, Audacy App, 92.3 HD2
BALTIMORE, MD - APRIL 11: Chris Bassitt #40 of the Baltimore Orioles pitches against the San Francisco Giants at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on April 11, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Are you ready for 6+ hours of Orioles/Astros action? Well, too bad. You’re getting it anyway.
Last night’s rainout has set up the Orioles’ first doubleheader of the season. They’ll play their regularly scheduled 12:35 game followed by the makeup game about half an hour after the first one finishes.
Last season the Orioles played five doubleheaders, getting progressively better at them as the year went on. The O’s were swept in the first two, split the next one, and did the sweeping in the last two. The only time the O’s and Astros have ever played each other in a doubleheader was on Sept. 29, 2018, when Houston won both games.
The scheduled starting pitchers from Wednesday’s rainout, righties Chris Bassitt and Peter Lambert, will both take the hill in the first game this afternoon. Lambert, a former Colorado Rockies washout, is back in the U.S. after pitching in Nippon Professional Baseball in 2025. He’s filling in for a more high-profile Japanese import, Tatsuya Imai, who landed on Houston’s injured list after three ineffective starts and reportedly has had trouble adjusting to MLB and American culture. As someone who wanted the Orioles to sign Imai, I’ll admit he probably wouldn’t have improved the Orioles’ fortunes up to this point in 2026.
Opposing Lambert is Bassitt, who finally picked up his first Orioles win in his most recent start, but it certainly wasn’t a good one. He gave up five runs in 5.1 innings in Kansas City and was fortunate that the O’s scored eight runs to support him. Bassitt has a 6.75 ERA in five starts as an Oriole and is now facing a quality offense in the Astros. Yordan Alvarez in particular has crushed Bassitt with five career home runs in just 26 PAs. Chris, please don’t pitch to Alvarez. Game 2 of the doubleheader will feature the Orioles’ Brandon Young against Houston’s Lance McCullers Jr.
Game 1 lineups
ASTROS
SS Carlos Correa LF Yordan Alvarez 3B Isaac Paredes 1B Christian Walker 2B Jose Altuve DH Yainer Diaz CF Brice Matthews LF Dustin Harris C Christian Vázquez
RHP Peter Lambert
ORIOLES
DH Gunnar Henderson LF Taylor Ward C Adley Rutschman 1B Pete Alonso RF Dylan Beavers 2B Jeremiah Jackson CF Colton Cowser 3B Coby Mayo SS Blaze Alexander
On this episode of The Dodgers Post, Jack Harris and Dylan Hernández break down the Dodgers’ surprising series loss to the Marlins, and the recent struggles from their star-studded offense.
They discuss the slow starts the team’s top hitters have gotten off to, and whether it’s cause for concern despite the club’s strong offensive numbers overall through the opening month of the year.
Then, they break down the team’s performance in April, and pick their player, pitcher, disappointment and interaction of the month.
Despite stats that show the Dodgers offense as elite, there are massive issues with this group, led by its star-studded names: Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker and Freddie FreemanGetty Images Despite stats that show the Dodgers offense as elite, there are massive issues with this group, led by its star-studded names: Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker and Freddie FreemanAP Despite stats that show the Dodgers offense as elite, there are massive issues with this group, led by its star-studded names: Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker and Freddie FreemanAP
Finally, they review their latest predictions (not good!) and make more calls for the team’s upcoming trip to St. Louis and Houston.
All that and more, on this week’s latest episode.
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SAN FRANCISCO, CA - APRIL 23: Logan Webb #62 of the San Francisco Giants pitches during the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Oracle Park on April 23, 2026 in San Francisco, California. The Dodgers defeated the Giants 3-0. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It’s the first doubleheader of the season! After Wednesday’s game was postponed due to inclement weather, the San Francisco Giants and Philadelphia Phillies will play twice today. It’s a split doubleheader, with the first game starting at 9:35 a.m. PT, and the second scheduled for 2:35 p.m. PT. So you get a two-game gamethread!
Starting the first game for the Giants is their ace, Logan Webb. The 29-year old right-hander is still trying to get his season going through six starts, and is 2-3 with a 4.86 ERA, a 3.31 FIP, and 32 strikeouts against 13 walks in 37 innings. He gave up three earned runs in seven innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers his last time out.
As for the Phillies, they’re also sending a 29-year old All-Star to the mound in the form of left-hander Christopher Sánchez. In six starts this year, Sánchez is 2-2 with a 2.94 ERA, a 2.61 FIP, and 43 strikeouts against 10 walks in 33.2 innings. He got rocked in his last start, giving up six runs in 5.1 innings against the Chicago Cubs.
Things are less clear for the second half of the doubleheader. The Giants have not announced a starter for that game, as they’re mulling their choices between starting Adrian Houser and opting for a bullpen game. Since they don’t have an off-day until next Thursday, they’ll need to go to a bullpen game at some point in the coming days; it’s just a matter of when they want to do it.
The Phillies, however, have named their Game 2 starter: right-hander Andrew Painter. The 23-year old has made four starts, and five total appearances this year, and is 1-2 with a 5.25 ERA, a 3.33 FIP, and 21 strikeouts to six walks in 24 innings. He gave up five runs in 5.2 innings against the Atlanta Braves in his last game.
Per the doubleheader rules, both teams are allowed to add a 27th player to the roster for the day. Both teams have called on a right-handed pitcher from their AAA squad: Trevor McDonald for the Giants, and Nolan Hoffman for the Phillies.
As you know, the collective-bargaining agreement between MLB owners and the MLB Players Association ends on Dec. 1, 2026. The last time such an expiration happened, five years ago, owners began a lockout on Dec. 1, 2021 that ran well into March and threatened the entire 2022 season.
That didn’t happen, though Spring Training 2022 was truncated and after games had been “cancelled,” owners and players agreed to squish a 162-game season into a time frame shorter than normal, largely through playing doubleheaders (the Cubs played six of them, five at Wrigley Field, not much fun for anyone).
So we stand just about seven months from that CBA expiration and Evan Drellich of The Athletic has written an article that covers many of the main points that will need to be addressed in the negotiations. I’m going to hit some of those points here and give a bit of commentary, and later on, I’ll note something that Drellich left out.
First, a bit of the time frame we’re looking at:
In the next couple weeks, MLB and the Players Association are expected to formally start negotiations.
First, the talks will open with a months-long prelude of proposal exchanges. The parties will, naturally, both start out asking for more than they expect to receive.
Last go-around, the sides made opening presentations on April 20, 2021. The players made their first economic proposals in May, and the owners their first in August. A deal wasn’t finalized until March 10, just in time to preserve a full 162-game schedule for 2022.
COMMENT: So, as you see, the time frame of “formal negotiations” will be about the same as it was five years ago. As you can also see, these things move slowly. They are expected to move even more slowly this time because of all the talk, that you have surely heard, about owners wanting a salary cap.
MLB has not confirmed it will make a cap proposal, but Manfred has made many overtures in that direction, and people briefed on ownership thinking who were not authorized to speak publicly say the owners have settled on that approach.
Much will depend, however, on whether owners actually stick by their opening salvo. It’s one thing for MLB to propose a cap at the outset and another to still be fighting for it next spring.
If owners are committed to landing a cap no matter what it takes, the lockout could well cost a season. In that scenario, both sides would try to outlast the other, and historically, little has galvanized players more than attempts to limit their pay.
If the owners eventually back off a cap proposal, preserving some form of the current market system, the 2027 season probably has a better chance to be played in full. The devil would then be in the details of the alternative proposals — and, as always, which side is motivated to outlast the other.
COMMENT: And there we have it, with many owners supposedly being adamant about wanting a cap this time, as opposed to the current “luxury tax” system, a system that some owners (Dodgers, Mets in particular) have shown no interest in limiting themselves to the existing tax levels. The difference, for example, of the Dodgers’ 2026 player tax payroll of $416 million is $337 million more than the bottom-ranking Marlins ($79 million). The difference is more than the entire payrolls of all but two teams (Mets, Yankees).
This is the sort of disparity that concerns many team owners, some of whom feel the only way to stop it is to have a cap. Other payroll-related things, notably the deferred contracts some teams, including the Cubs, have begun to issue, are bound to come up in the negotiations.
So who caves first on this issue, and will we lose games in 2027?
Anything is possible. The damage done to the sport would be to some extent proportional to the number of games missed. Fans would likely more easily forget a missed month than a missed season.
In recent years, some owners have been curious whether players might cave on a cap quickly, or at least, more quickly than expected. This is not a group of players that has been heavily battle-tested, in a labor sense.
Players, too, have differing interests. Some are close to free agency, some are far away, others might never get there. Maybe more of them find a cap appealing today than they did 30 years ago, although there’s no indication of that so far. Stars such as Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and Brent Rooker have spoken out against the change.
“It remains to be seen whether the union can do better by the rank-and-file players than they have in recent years,” Harry Marino, a former MLBPA lawyer who challenged union leadership during a 2024 mutiny, recently told The Athletic. “Do I think that that can be achieved without a salary cap? I do, but the priority of the union has to be the well-being of every single member.”
COMMENT: Drellich is right about a missed month as opposed to losing an entire season. A missed month could mean some games made up; in 1995, for example, coming off that tremendously damaging labor dispute, a 144-game schedule was agreed to. Thirty-one years later, no one really blinks an eye at the 18 games that were missed that year, though it’s possible the missed games cost Albert Belle, who hit 50 home runs that year, a chance at 60.
More important than just missed games is the perception of missed games. Baseball seems to be riding a high right now in popularity. Attendance was up last year. TV ratings are good, and the recent World Baseball Classic got huge audiences compared to previous such events. MLB, per the Drellich article, had about $12 billion of revenue in 2025 and could touch $13 billion in 2026. Do owners really want to risk that, especially because of this?
The league office also has to soon negotiate new national TV deals for 2029 and beyond, and missed games will not help the haul.
If regular-season games wind up canceled, the outcry would be immense. Pressure to end the lockout would fly in from all angles, including TV networks and cable companies and sponsors. Fans would vilify all involved, from the owners who bought teams with hope of being beloved public figures, to the superstar players who are otherwise adored.
COMMENT: No question, Drellich is right about this. MLB hasn’t had a labor dispute that cost games in more than 30 years (the 1994-95 strike). Even in 2022, as noted above, all the “cancelled” games were eventually played, every MLB team played a full 162-game schedule that year.
You can bet that team owners are concerned about those TV deals. As of last year, 49 percent of MLB revenue came from TV deals, about 26 percent from national TV and 23 percent from local. That’s especially important because of this desire of Commissioner Rob Manfred:
Manfred wants to revise the sport’s media-rights structure and the way teams share TV money between themselves — revenue sharing, as it’s called. Manfred believes the answer to the local-media problems is to divide local TV revenues more evenly and to ultimately sell more games nationally.
A cap makes it easier for the commissioner to get all his owners on board with such changes. Large-market teams probably won’t be willing to share significantly more TV money with small-market teams unless a cap arrives.
Indeed, what revisions Manfred could build owner support for in the media-rights and revenue-sharing buckets without a cap is one of the most fascinating questions entering bargaining.
COMMENT: There’s the crux of things right there. With potentially $6 billion (or more) of revenue at stake, Manfred and team owners don’t want to anger TV partners to the point where they don’t want to make deals offering more money.
Would a cap do what Manfred wants? Would it persuade owners of teams like the Cubs, Dodgers, Mets and Yankees, all of whom own their own local RSNs, to go in with MLB Local Media, which now controls the rights for 14 of the 30 teams (and also handles streaming for six others)?
This is not the only reason owners want a cap, but it is one of the most important. Manfred thinks the league could make more in TV revenue if he could offer the entire package — national and local rights — as one thing. He could be right, although the cautionary tale is the very public divorce between MLB and ESPN last spring, which cancelled the last three years of that deal, about $550 million a year. Eventually, the two kissed and made up and signed a deal for about the same money — but MLB had to sell off MLB.TV as a result. That’s all fine and good for the league, maybe not so much for fans, who by next year are likely going to have to spend more money to get MLB.TV.
Same as it ever was, I suppose.
That leads to the bottom line here:
March 2027 is the month to circle, because if a deal isn’t reached then, it’s impossible to hold even a truncated spring training ahead of a full 162-game schedule. Not without drastically altering the schedule, anyway.
Could the sides reach a deal a bit later, maybe in April 2027, and push back the regular season and the playoffs while still playing 162? Maybe, but it’d be a logistical nightmare. For example: Fox, a league broadcast partner, would have to be open to moving the World Series.
If the lockout ultimately extends beyond March, the end date becomes anyone’s guess.
COMMENT: Unless something truly unusual happens, there will be a lockout Dec. 1. Manfred has all but said that will be the case. That means the sport completely shuts down — no Winter Meetings, no free agent signings, no trades, likely no Cubs Convention.
So things would be quiet, as they were in the 2021-22 offseason, until March. Last time, it almost appeared we were going to lose the entire season, with games being “cancelled,” until suddenly, there was a deal. Let’s hope it’s not as messy this time.
I said there was one thing left out of Drellich’s article, and that’s the idea of a salary floor to go along with a cap. I don’t think a cap works without a floor. If MLB had a system like that — and a guaranteed percentage of league revenue going to players — players might be willing to do that, if the percentage was high enough. This article says it’s probably not:
MLB players received 47% of total league revenues in 2024 (figure does not include the estimated ~$800mm in annual expenses that go toward minor league players represented by the MLBPA). By contrast, NFL, NBA, and NHL players all share ~50% of their respective leagues’ pie.
It is estimated that baseball’s players association has left ~$2.5bn on the table over the last three years by failing to tie compensation to revenues (assumes 50/50 split).
As the old saying goes: “A billion here, a billion there, soon you’re talking about real money.” Players are the game. No one goes to a MLB game, or watches one on TV, to watch owners own teams. In a $13 billion industry, the people who produce the value — in this case the players — should get at least half of league revenue. Do that with a cap and floor and now you might have the basis for a deal. In practice, what that would mean is that teams that don’t spend now (Marlins, Guardians, White Sox, Rays are the bottom four in payroll this year) would have to. Some mid-range free agents (Lucas Giolito, maybe?) would be signed for more money than they’re making now.
If a cap/floor system happens, one thing that would have to go along with it is grandfathering existing contracts until they end. This is one reason, I believe, that teams signed players to long-term extensions this spring (including the Cubs, with Nico Hoerner and Pete Crow-Armstrong). They did so to get cost certainty in a possible cap system.
Lastly, for the Cubs the 2027 All-Star Game is at stake — the photo above is of Manfred at Wrigley announcing the ‘27 ASG awarded to the Cubs last August. The Cubs have reportedly been told that if a labor dispute wipes out the ‘27 ASG, they’d get it in ‘28 or ‘29. Clearly, though, with planning already in progress, the Cubs would like for the All-Star Game to be played as scheduled at Wrigley Field in July 2027.
Much has to be done, obviously, before there’s a deal. Both owners and players have an interest in not losing any 2027 games to a labor dispute. Let’s hope they can put together a deal that’s good for everyone — including fans.
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - APRIL 20: Lucas Erceg #60 of the Kansas City Royals pitches during the game against the Baltimore Orioles at Kauffman Stadium on April 20, 2026 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Lucas Erceg has been…something less than good so far this year.
When the Royals traded for him in 2024, he immediately became the team’s best reliever and locked down the closer role. More than that, though, he seemed like a shutdown reliever in the vein of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Greg Holland. It’s almost impossible to have three relievers of that quality at the same time – the Dodgers tried and ended up with bupkis last year – but a team with playoff aspirations probably should have at least one of them*, and Erceg figured to be the Royals’ answer to that need after his terrific debut.
*Though, again, look at the Dodgers. Sometimes, you can get by with a really good starting pitcher who is willing to do crazy things.
Unfortunately, since the end of 2024, Erceg has simply not been the guy the Royals hoped for. In a lot of ways, he appears similar, and he still had a 2.64 ERA last year. But this year, through the season’s first month, he’s wielding a 4.38 ERA and, even more concerning, he has a 5.36 SIERA, suggesting that he may actually have been lucky to pitch even that well. So what the heck is going on?
There are two primary theories I considered: either he’s tipping pitches, or he’s throwing too many non-competitive pitches. Now, normally, the first place you should go to research a pitcher is TJStats.ca. It’s a fantastic website with gobs of data that takes what’s present on Baseball Savant and expands on it, but also makes it easier to comprehend. If you’re willing and able to pony up for a subscription, you can get even deeper analysis. Fortunately for you all, I’ve traded in some of my Pop-Tarts, and so I can offer you this comparison image of Lucas Erceg in 2026 and 2024.
Now, if you just go to the bottom row of the pitch tables, he doesn’t seem all that different. He’s throwing nearly as many strikes as before, and the xwOBACon (a stat that estimates how much damage should have been done based on contact quality) is pretty similar to 2024. But the chases and whiffs are WAY down. That would seem to be a point in favor of pitch tipping. But hold on a second… let’s look at things pitch by pitch. He’s actually throwing far more strikes with his sinker and changeup than before, but missing with his four-seamer and slider at truly awful rates for those pitch types. The problem is especially bad with his slider.
So I decided to do an extra deep dive in the slider. I went on Baseball Savant, and I watched literally every slider he’s thrown this year, and I came to an incontrovertible conclusion. The problem isn’t that he’s tipping pitches, and it’s not even that he’s not throwing his slider in the zone often enough. It’s that too few of his sliders ever even look like strikes.
Location, location, location
There’s a concept in pitching where you can describe the movement of a pitch by whether it starts as a strike or ball and ends as a strike or ball. So, if a pitch appears to be a strike upon release and ends up outside of the strike zone, that would be called a strike-ball pitch. Vice versa is ball-strike. And in the same vein, you can describe a pitch as a strike-strike or a ball-ball. This description format shows its weaknesses for some kinds of pitches, of course:
That pitch is technically a ball-ball. But it would be better described as a ball-strike-ball. It starts off outside, passes through the area that would be the strike zone if the strike zone were a cylinder, and then ends up low. For the purposes of today’s discussion, I classified such pitches as strike-ball pitches because I was primarily concerned with whether the batter had any reason to consider swinging. If you’re curious, he only had one other ball-strike-ball pitch.
Far too many of Lucas Erceg’s sliders are ball-ball pitches. He has thrown a total of 65 sliders so far this year, and 49 of them have ended up outside the zone. Now, sure, he should probably throw a few more in the zone. But by far the biggest problem is that, of the 49 sliders that have ended up outside the zone, 25 of them look a lot like this:
This has led to only one swing and one check swing on those pitches. Which makes sense. A slider succeeds based on its ability to convince a batter that it’s a fastball before diving off course. But those 25 pitches start off outside the strike zone, so batters don’t even really need to consider whether they might be fastballs or sliders. And the one swing he got was Gunnar Henderson on a pitch that looked like it was headed back toward the zone*:
*One thing I discovered during this process is that Erceg has two different slider actions. You’ll note that this one is breaking back armside, sometimes referred to as a wrong-way slider or a goofy slider. That’s why, if you refer back to Erceg’s comparison tables, it looks like his slider doesn’t break horizontally, it averages out to near nothing because some of them break glove-side and some break arm-side. This is neat and weird, but it has always been true of Erceg, so it isn’t the cause of his current troubles.
On the other hand, of the 24 sliders Erceg has thrown strike-ball, he’s gotten swings on 12 of them, along with 3 check swings. Of those swings, only two have been put in play, and three have been fouled off. So if you could reduce his sliders to just the ones he’s thrown strike-ball, he has a 50% chase rate and a 58.3% whiff rate. Those are staggeringly good numbers. He doesn’t need to throw more sliders in the zone to succeed; just more sliders that look like they might be strikes.
It turns out there’s nothing wrong with his slider’s deception, just his accuracy. Now, unfortunately, I can’t tell you why he’s throwing so many non-competitive sliders. It could be a mechanical issue, but if it were, I’d expect to see them consistently missing in the same way; instead, some of them end up spiked while others end up looking like something Ricky Vaughn would throw.
It could be that he’s afraid of hanging them in the zone, so he’s making sure to miss out of the zone if he misses at all. But, as you can tell from the graph earlier, he really doesn’t seem to need to worry about batters making contact. A. 158 xwOBACon is fantastic. Overall, his average exit velocity against is 88.8 MPH with an average launch angle of 8 degrees. In other words, the most likely batted ball you’d expect is a routine groundout. He’s only given up 10 hits in 12.1 innings, it’s the 10 walks in the same span that have often doomed him.
He’s only given up two hits on sliders this year, weirdly, both against Milwaukee on April 5. Meaning he hasn’t given up a hit on a slider outside that game. The first was a center-cut slider that resulted in a 94-MPH line drive off the bat of Jake Bauers with an XBA of .510 that Bauers turned into a hustle double. Basically, he threw the worst slider he could, the batter put a really good swing on it, and he still probably should only have given up a single, if that. The second was his other ball-strike-ball slider; Brandon Lockridge managed to bloop it into center and scored an RBI single on a ball with an XBA of only .350. A coin flip and a 1-in-3 chance are the best anyone’s been able to get off of Erceg’s slider when he lets them make contact with it.
The fix is simple, though if it were easy, I imagine he’d have done it by now. Lucas Erceg just needs to get his sliders aimed at the strike zone. If he could do that more often, he might immediately return to being the Lights Out Lucas we remember from 2024.
PHILADELPHIA, PA - APRIL 28: Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Bryson Stott #5 and Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper #3 look on during the game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the San Francisco Giants on April 28th, 2026 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Terence Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Here are the lineups for game 1 of today’s double header against San Francisco. Let’s discuss.
