Atlanta Braves Jim Jarvis (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Atlanta Braves host the San Diego Padres in the series-deciding finale. If the Braves win, they will have won three of the four games. A victory this morning secures a series split for the Padres.
The four-game set has been highly competitive, as the Braves are coming off a dramatic 7-6 win last night. Rookie shortstop Jim Jarvis broke up a 1-1 tie with a run-scoring double that scored Mauricio Dubon in a six-run eighth-inning rally. The Friars responded with a five-run top of the ninth that fell short of tying the game.
Taking the mound: Chris Sale (ATL) vs Kyle Hart (SD)
The Braves ace, Chris Sale, will take the hill in the series finale. He has been dominant in 18 starts this season. The left-hander has struck out 123 batters in 105.0 innings pitched.
Today’s game plan is simple, as Sale wants to set the tone early with scoreless innings before handing a lead off to the bullpen. Surprisingly, Sale still generates weak contact from opposing lineups after 16 major league seasons.
Sale is making his second start following his 10th All-Star Game appearance, and he reached a milestone in his last appearance. Sale recorded his 2,700th career strikeout in a start against the Texas Rangers.
The Padres will start Kyle Hart as the opener this morning. But Griffin Canning (1-8, 6.67 ERA) will work the bulk innings, as he will try to turn his 2026 campaign around. The veteran right-hander had his troubles against the Braves this season. Earlier, he allowed four runs in less than two-thirds of an inning at Petco Park.
Canning will need to be more aggressive in the strike zone. However, consistency has been missing all season. Canning desperately needs to have a good outing, as he allowed 13 runs over his last 16.1 innings pitched.
Friars skipper Craig Stammen may have a short leash for him in today’s contest. If he shows any signs of trouble, Canning will be removed from the game. Stammen has to give his team an opportunity to even the series.
The Toronto Blue Jays close out a rough four-game set with the Tampa Bay Rays this afternoon, with both sides priced at -110.
Toronto’s bats have gone missing for most of this series, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hitting the ball as hard as he has all year, and he's the focus of my Rays vs. Blue Jays predictions.
Read on for my MLB picks for this Thursday, July 23 matchup.
Rays vs Blue Jays predictions
Rays vs Blue Jays best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+125)
In his first at-bat, he crushed a double the other way to right field at 105 mph, narrowly missing a home run. He’s swinging hard trying to drag this offense out of its rut, and I expect that to translate against Rays starter Ian Seymour.
As I’ll get into below, Seymour serves up meatball fastballs. He’s allowed a homer in four straight starts, and opponents own a .497 xSLG against his fastball, sinker and cutter.
Guerrero also holds the platoon advantage here, carrying a .762 OPS and 121 wRC+ against southpaws, far above his numbers vs. righties.
The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen worked hard on Wednesday, and fatigue tends to show up late in a series, while Ian Seymour’s penchant for allowing homers gives Toronto a path to runs of its own.
I’ll add Vladdy Over 0.5 hits, leaning on the same hard contact behind my best bet, then finish with the Blue Jays on the moneyline — banking on the home side finally breaking out with a statement win in the finale.
Rays vs Blue Jays SGP
Blue Jays moneyline
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 hits
Over 8.5
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Rays vs Blue Jays home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+280)
By all accounts, Kazuma Okamoto is the best home run bet on the board.
He’s the perfect foil for Rays starter Ian Seymour, who carries a 1.6 HR/9, has allowed a homer in four straight outings and owns a bad fastball.
The left-hander has a very good changeup (+9 run value), but his fastball grades out below average (-2 run value), and the heat maps show it sitting high in the zone.
Enter Okamoto, who owns a +12 run value against the four-seamer, slugs .578 on that pitch, and leads the Blue Jays with five home runs against lefties this season.
The matchup works on both the pitch mix and the platoon side, which makes him the best home run bet on the card.
I’d bet this to +250 but no shorter, at my standard quarter unit.
2026 Transparency Record
Best bets: 8-8, -0.57 units
SGPs: 2-15, -2.06 units
HR picks: 3-14, -0.50 units
Rays vs Blue Jays odds
Moneyline: Tampa Bay -110 | Toronto -110
Run line: Tampa Bay -1.5 (+150) | Toronto +1.5 (-175)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Rays vs Blue Jays trend
The Toronto Blue Jays have seen the Over cash in eight of their last 12 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Blue Jays.
How to watch Rays vs Blue Jays and game info
Location
Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
Date
Thursday, 7-23-2026
First pitch
3:07 p.m. ET
TV
Rays.TV, Sportsnet
Rays starting pitcher
Ian Seymour (6-2, 4.79 ERA)
Blue Jays starting pitcher
Shane Bieber (1-1, 5.70 ERA)
Rays vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Rays vs Blue Jays weather
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NEW YORK — While the Yankees still are missing Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole and Max Fried pitched together in New York’s rotation for first time and their numbers add to the injured captain’s 99.
Displaying $542 million worth of aces, the Yankees sent the pair to the mound in a doubleheader against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Cole didn’t get a decision in an opening 5-3, 10-inning loss, striking out 11 — his highest total in three years — while allowing three runs over seven innings. Fried came off the injured list for the night game and pitched five innings of one-hit ball in a 2-0 win.
“I think you saw a master class today,” fellow Yankees pitcher Will Warren said.
New York manager Aaron Boone long had envisioned Cole (No. 45) and Fried (54) following each other to the mound.
“It’s nice that it’s finally come to fruition,” Cole said. “A bit too long for of our both of our tastes.”
Signed to a nine-year, $324 million contract before the 2020 season, Cole won the 2023 AL Cy Young Award and helped the Yankees reach the 2024 World Series. He had elbow ligament reconstruction surgery on March 11 last year, and the 35-year-old right-hander didn’t return until this past May 22.
Cole is 3-5 with a 3.92 ERA in 11 starts, striking out 66 and walking 12 in 62 innings. He retired his first 14 batters before allowing Nick Gonzales’ single and Jacob Gonzalez’s two-run homer. Nick Gonzales added a solo homer in the seventh.
He pitched his 64th double-digit strikeout game, a Yankees-record 29th.
“He’s at a really good place and I just think benefiting from now pitching every fifth and sixth day and getting back his competitive sea legs,” Boone said.
Cole did have a hiccup when he was called for a balk in the sixth inning. The pitch clock malfunctioned and went blank, and Cole broke his hands before stepping off the pitching rubber.
“They were not aware that the clock went off,” Cole said. “And it is my fault. I broke and stepped off at the same time. I was startled that it was off.”
Fried signed an eight-year, $218 million deal in December 2024 and led the major leagues in wins last year when he went 19-5 with a 2.86 ERA. The 32-year-old left-hander, who had not pitched since May 14 because of a bone bruise in his left elbow, is 4-3 with a 2.97 ERA.
He threw 52 pitches over three innings in a rehab outing for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and was set to make another rehab outing for the RailRiders. Then a game was postponed because rain was forecast, creating the doubleheader.
Fried was in the clubhouse and Boone happened to be there with pitching coach Matt Blake and other mound staff.
“I walked in and just kind of jokingly said like: ‘Are you guys figuring out who’s pitching the doubleheader tomorrow?’ thinking they were going to choose which game it was going to be between Will and Gerrit,” Fried recalled. “And then they kind of looked at me and gave me a look of like: ‘Would you be on?’ I was, ‘Oh wait, we’re serious?’ I was like, ‘Yeah. Like, I mean, I’m going to pitching anyway.’ So I was — as soon as they said that, I said, ‘Yeah, you guys make the decision, but if you want me to pitch, I’m ready.’”
He struck out seven and walked one while throwing 37 of 57 pitches for strikes and retiring his last 12 batters.
“It’s something that I’ve been looking forward to for a while now and kind of sucks that I got hurt when I did to delay that, but better late than never,” Fried said.
His four-seam fastball averaged 96.2 mph, 1.5 mph above his season average coming in.
“It’s as good as he’s looked all year,” Boone said.
New York currently still is missing left-hander Carlos Rodón, who hasn’t pitched since June 28 because of left elbow inflammation. Right-hander Clarke Schmidt threw 20 pitches of batting practice in his second BP session since elbow surgery on July 11 last year and probably will have another in a few days.
“Hopefully in the final couple of months of the regular season that rotation can continue to be a real strength for us,” Boone said.
Cole had been waiting 19 months to go back-to-back with Fried.
“We were so excited when we signed him. He’s just a magnificent pitcher and he’s a great compliment to the other starters that we have in our rotation,” he said. “Definitely looking forward to the next few months.”
The St. Louis Cardinals host the Arizona Diamondbacks as -112 favorites tonight at Busch Stadium.
With Brandon Pfaadt toeing the rubber for Arizona opposite Michael McGreevy, my Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals predictions are favoring the home side and the Over.
I explain why in my MLB picks for Thursday, July 23, below.
Who will win Diamondbacks vs Cardinals today: Cardinals (-112)
I'm no longer a believer in Brandon Pfaadt. I was high on the Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander as a prospect and into his first full season in the rotation in 2024. His 4.71 ERA that year seemed fake, as he boasted an expected ERA of 3.73 and a 3.61 FIP with a 24.3% strikeout rate. In other words, there was a clear path for improvement.
That hasn't happened. His 2025 was a disaster, and 2026 found him back in the minors for a spell while splitting time between the bullpen and rotation with the top club. His 4.58 ERA isn't far off his xERA, and his ability to miss bats has regressed, with a 15th-percentile whiff rate and a strikeout rate in the 14th.
Opponents own a 9% barrel rate against him (29th percentile), and while he's pitched better since returning to the rotation, there's way too much smoke to ignore the fire.
Jordan Walker and JJ Wetherholt are among the bats who will feast on Pfaadt's offerings early, giving the St. Louis Cardinals enough of a lead that the bullpen won't blow it this time.
The relief corps' shakiness is the only reason I'm not taking the run line, as it's shown that a big lead can evaporate in the blink of an eye.
Play to -120.
COVERS INTEL: Walker's breakout is legitimate, and his 100th-percentile bat speed helps him catch up to high-velocity arms and to really punish those like Pfaadt, who might touch 94.
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+140)
McGreevy has limited the damage well enough, as indicated by his 2.92 ERA, but it's simply not sustainable. I like him to outpitch Pfaadt, but that's about it.
He's also stepping in against baseball's hottest offense. The Diamondbacks have scored a whopping 66 runs over their last 10 games in the past two weeks.
The Cardinals have watched theirs dry up a bit in that span, but Pfaadt's deficiencies will help reignite St. Louis' bats.
I'd play this down to even money and would even consider Over 9.5 at +180 or longer.
Jason Wilson's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 6-1, +5.23 units
Over/Under bets: 4-3, -0.2 units
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals weather
A high-pressure system with winds blowing toward home plate could suppress fly ball distance, limiting home run potential at Busch Stadium, so the scoring may come by a stream of consistent contact where the ball stays in play.
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals odds
Moneyline: Diamondbacks +104 | Cardinals -108
Run line: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-178) | Cardinals -1.5 (+170)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+150) | Under 8.5 (-156)
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals trend
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.90 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals.
How to watch Diamondbacks vs Cardinals and game info
Location
Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Date
Thursday, July 23, 2026
First pitch
5:15 p.m. ET
TV
Diamondbacks.TV, Cardinals.TV
Diamondbacks starting pitcher
Brandon Pfaadt (4-1, 4.58 ERA)
Cardinals starting pitcher
Michael McGreevy (4-7, 2.92 ERA)
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals latest injuries
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The second half of the season is underway and injuries are already making an impact on the MVP and Cy Young races. There is a new leader in the clubhouse for AL Cy Young, while the NL Cy Young, and the NL MVP has become interesting for the first time all season after Shohei Ohtani's knee injury and Jacob Misiorowski's arm fatigue. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings.
Jacob Misirowski could be in trouble and his first Cy Young award is at risk. After being pulled after only 4.0 innings and 65 pitches in his previous start against the Mets, it's clear that Misirowski's health will be in question down the stretch of this season.
With the heat that he throws, Misirowski has made a name for himself, but at 24-years-old, he hasn't put this time of wear and tear on his 6-foot-7 and 200 lbs frame. If Misirowski skips a few games or isn't going past 5.0 innings for the next couple of starts, then it may be time to consider one of the veterans for the No. 1 spot in the Cy Young rankings.
Zack Wheeler is a man on a mission lately! Since being left out of the initial All-Star team, Wheeler took it personally and turned that news to fuel. In July, Wheeler owns a 2.55 ERA, .215 OBA, and 43 strikeouts to three walks over 24.2 innings (four starts). Wheeler has racked up at least nine strikeouts in four consecutive starts and two or fewer earned runs in eight of the last nine games. The 36-year-old is pitching his best ball of the year right now.
Chris Sale has been nearly perfect over his last two starts with 11 strikeouts to one walk and no earned runs over 10.0 innings. Sale only trails Misiorowski in ERA this season as he's permitted two or less earned runs in 15 out of 18 starts. In July, Sale has a 1.80 ERA and .204 OBA, which ranks 11th and 17th across the MLB.
The Reds have now won seven straight starts when Chase Burns is on the mound and 11 out of the past 12. Burns has been automatic for Cincinnati this season and has yet to get the respect he deserves for the year he's having.
Burns has yielded two or fewer earned runs in 16 out of 19 starts this season and he's coming off his sixth game with zero earned runs. The 23-year-old from Naples, Italy has made a dramatic jump in his second season and should finish top five in Cy Young voting because of it.
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Dylan Cease went into the All-Star break with a near no-hitter as he went 8.0 innings strong against the Giants with 11 strikeouts and three walks. Before that, Cease went 7.0 innings of three-hit ball and no earned runs at the Mariners. That was 15-straight innings of no runs allowed entering the break.
To start the second half, Cease went 6.0 innings and allowed three earned runs with seven strikeouts to one walk in a loss to the Rays. Despite the loss, Cease is running hot and may have made this a 1A and 1B race for Cy Young.
Cam Schlittler has been caught in the Cy Young race and it seems to be neck and neck now. Schlittler didn't make it five innings in his last start versus the Dodgers, which resulted in a loss, and his ERA for June was a 3.38 and 2.84 in July so far, which are both sharp declines from May. He's allowed 12 combined earned runs in his last four starts and failed to make it through five innings in two of those four.
Boston is coming off a historic stretch of winning 15 straight games — which tied a franchise record. The Red Sox have a lot of reasons why they're successful, but one of the cornerstones of the success for this Boston team all year has been Sonny Gray.
The Red Sox are 14-4 in his 18 starts and won five straight and eight of the last nine. Gray has a 1.50 ERA in July with three earned runs over 18.0 innings of work and three starts versus the Angels, Mets, and Rays — earning wins in all three. Gray's only loss came back on April 14 in a 6-0 result versus the Twins.
Jacob deGrom posted a 3.00 ERA in June, but has a 6.52 ERA in July — his worst of the season. The veteran has allowed 23 earned runs in the last six games and seven in the past two. deGrom is not helping himself of getting back in the Cy Young race. He's positioned himself with the rest of the long shots for this award such as Logan Gilbert, Joe Ryan, and Gavin Williams. deGrom should be in the mix as on the outside looking in the rest of the season unless Texas goes on a Boston-like run and deGrom racks up wins.
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Yordan Alavarez is having his best month of the season in July. Alvarez is hitting .397 with a 1.300 OPS, plus eight home runs and 17 RBI over 16 games. The 29-year-old slugger is having a career season and currently riding a nine-game hitting streak and three consecutive with two or more hits. In the last week, Alvarez totaled his fifth game this year with two home runs in a game.
The All-Star Game and Home Run Derby did not affect Junior Caminero's game whatsoever. To start the second half, Caminero has a hit in seven straight games and recorded a multi-hit performance in four of those seven and three straight. It's safe to say Caminero has the best chance of anyone to catch Alavarez for MVP and the Rays' season success compared to the Astros' will be another advantage that Caminero has.
Ben Rice has come out swinging in July. Rice is posting a .317 batting average, 1.125 OPS, and has seven homers and 17 RBI over 17 games. The Yankees are 9-8 in that stretch, so the winning hasn't come with the hot play, but Rice has put himself back into the conversation.
Long shot: Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (+2500)
Bobby Witt Jr. has gone on the 10-day IL after feeling stiffness in his back. Witt was hitting .196 in July and .162 over the last 37 at-bats, so it's obvious that the back spasms he's been dealing with has affected his play too much to continue. That has dropped Witt to a long shot for MVP and given the Royals' 43-60 record — Witt's MVP hopes are all but toast.
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Shohei Ohtani is dealing with a left knee injury that will cause him to miss some starts on the mound indefinitely due to irritation. While he won't be pitching anytime soon (1.79 ERA, 8-2 record), Ohtani will continue hitting.
So far in July, Ohtani is hitting .222, which would be his worst batting average of any month this season, plus his four home runs and 10 RBI are the fewest of any month. Ohtani's injury and poor hitting has cracked the door slightly for a guy like Pete Crow-Armstrong to get in the mix.
In June, Pete Crow-Armstrong (PCA) was on fire and climbed into the MVP race behind a .381 batting average, 11 homers, 20 RBI, and 21 runs scored. He hasn't skipped a beat in July. PCA is hitting .273 with 12 runs scored, 9 RBI, three home runs, and five stolen bases over 16 games.
The 24-year-old has taken a significant leap in his fourth season going from a .247 batting average to .282. He also waked 29 times last season over 157 games and has 52 this season as he's improved his plate discipline. PCA should shatter his career-high 31 home runs, 91 runs scored, and 95 RBI from last year, setting up him for a run at MVP if Ohtani misses time.
James Wood leads the MLB in runs scored (21), and ranks top three in OPS (1.293), home runs (7), SLG (.807), and is tied fourth for RBI (17) during July.
On the season, nobody has crossed home plate more than Wood (94), who has scored 23 more times than second-place Bryan Reynolds (71). Wood also leads the MLB in walks (81), third in doubles (25), and tied 12th with 107 hits. If the Nationals make the playoffs, Wood better receive some top second and third place votes for MVP.
Long Shot: Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals (+7500)
Jordan Walker had an epic performance in the Home Run Derby knocking off Philadelphia's own Kyle Schwarber amid a breakout season for the 24-year-old. Walker is riding a 12-game hitting streak and has a hit in 21 out of the last 23 games. In July, Walker is having his best month hitting .313 with 17 runs scored and 18 RBI over 18 games. The Cardinals are jumbled up in a hotpot of teams for the final NL Wild Card spot. If St. Louis makes the postseason, expect Walker to finish top five in MVP voting ahead of guys like Juan Soto, Corbin Carroll, and Bryce Harper.
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The finale of the four-game AL Central series between the Cleveland Guardians (54-49) and the Minnesota Twins (50-53) takes place this afternoon.
Minnesota snapped a four-game losing streak Wednesday with a 10-6 victory over Cleveland in a game that spoiled the return of Guardians superstar José Ramírez. Playing for the first time since June 13 following hand surgery. Ramírez made an immediate impact, going 2-for-5 with two RBIs and a run scored, but the Twins' offense proved too much. The Twins jumped ahead when Trevor Larnach led off the game with a home run, but Cleveland answered with three early runs and looked well on their way to a third straight win over the Twins. The turning point came in the fourth inning, though. After an RBI infield single by catcher Alex Jackson, Brooks Lee crushed a three-run homer, turning a tie game into a 7-3 Minnesota advantage. Lee finished with four RBIs. Cleveland starter Slade Cecconi allowed seven hits and seven runs over 4.2 innings but just three earned runs. Three errors by the Guardians led to a total of six unearned runs on the night for the Twins.
Taj Bradley (9-4, 3.85 ERA) has been better than anticipated for Minnesota this season. He takes the mound for the Twins this afternoon. Bradley has held opposing hitters to a paltry .225 batting average and struck out 124 in 107.2 innings…and he has offered innings consistently pitching at least five innings in seven consecutive starts. That said, he was less than stellar in his last start. On July 18 against the Cubs, Bradley endured one of his rougher outings of the season. He surrendered five earned runs on seven hits over five innings, striking out six while walking three in a 6-2 Twins loss. Eleven days prior to that debacle, Bradley faced the Guardians. He dominated Cleveland allowing just one run over seven innings while striking out 10.
Gavin Williams (10-5, 4.00 ERA) takes the ball for the Guardians today. Williams continues to be one of Cleveland's most electric arms, piling up 145 strikeouts in 119.1 innings. He has recorded seven quality starts this season. Like Bradley, though, Williams is looking to rebound today after a rough outing. Williams took the loss against Pittsburgh on July 18, allowing five earned runs over six innings while giving up seven hits. Just as the Guardians struggled against Bradley earlier this month, so did the Twins at the plate against Williams. On July 9, Williams dominated Minnesota striking out 11 Minnesota batters in a 5-2 victory.
It is a getaway day for these clubs which adds to the look that this game has all the ingredients for the UNDER to cash for the Game Total through five innings and possibly the full game.
Lets dive into tonight’s matchup and find a sweat or two.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game Details and How to Watch: Twins vs. Guardians
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The Latest Odds: Twins vs. Guardians
The latest odds as of Wednesday courtesy of DraftKings:
Starting Pitchers and their Stats: Twins vs. Guardians for July 23
Twins: Taj Bradley Season Totals: 107.2 IP, 9-4, 3.85 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 124K, 43 BB
Guardians: Gavin Williams Season Totals: 119.1 IP, 10-5, 4.00 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 145K, 37 BB
Who’s Hot? Who’s Not! Twins vs. Guardians
Byron Buxton is 3-7 in this series
Trevor Larnach is 5-10 including 1 HR and 3 RBIs in this series
Brooks Lee is 4-9 in this series with 1 HR and 5 RBIs
Brayan Rocchio is 5-14 with 1 HR and 4 RBIs in this series
Steven Kwan is 4-11 in this series
Travis Bazzana was 0-3 yesterday but is 4-10 in this series
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Top Betting Trends & Insights: Twins vs. Guardians
The Twins are 54-49 on the Run Line this season
The Guardians are 55-48 on the Run Line this season
The OVER has cashed 57 times in games involving the Twins this season (57-40-6)
The OVER has cashed 49 times in games involving the Guardians this season (49-54)
Expert picks & predictions: Twins vs. Guardians
Rotoworld Bet Best Bet
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for today’s game between the Twins and the Guardians:
Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Guardians on the Moneyline.
Spread: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Run Line.
Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total UNDER 7.5.
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PHOENIX — The Athletics placed right-hander J.T. Ginn on the 15-day injured list with a blister on the middle finger of his pitching hand.
The move is retroactive to when Ginn threw 6 1/3 shutout innings while striking out seven and walking three in a 15-1 victory over Washington. For the season, Ginn is 8-6 with a 3.46 ERA in 109 1/3 innings, including 19 starts.
The Athletics recalled right-hander Mason Barnett from Triple-A Las Vegas to fill the roster spot. Barrett was 1-0 with a 4.64 ERA in 21 1/3 innings in his earlier relief appearances for the team, though he was working as a starter in the minors.
The A’s have a season-high 11 players on the injured list.
Jul 22, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks right fielder Corbin Carroll (7) scores after hitting a solo home run against the Athletics in the fourth inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images | Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images
Team News
D-backs start crucial stretch before Trade Deadline with 15-run outburst Closer Justin Martinez should be back from Tommy John surgery not long after the Aug. 3 Deadline, while starters Corbin Burnes and Ryne Nelson could be back in September.
On the position player side of things, outfielders Tommy Troy, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Jordan Lawlar could also all be back in August.
That’s eight players and a lot of depth.
“Doesn’t seem like there’s a huge swath of them that’ll be coming back right at the Deadline,” Hazen said. “So there may be some bridging to get from that period at the Deadline to when some of them come back. I still contend this team could look much different going through August and September when everybody gets back, regardless of what we do at the Deadline.”
Diamondbacks score season-high 15 runs to secure series win over Athletics
“I feel like we needed a win like that,” third baseman Nolan Arenado told Arizona Sports. “I feel like every game we played in lately, it’s been tight and a lot of stressful innings. For us to come out today, day game after a long game yesterday, and put up runs like that against a great arm, it was a great win.” https://arizonasports.com/mlb/arizona-diamondbacks/15-runs-secure-series-win-athletics
You might associate croissants with French lifestyle, but the croissant is actually from Vienna. In the 13th century, it was known as a kipferl, a denser bread made in the distinct crescent shape.
The hair of a reindeer is hollow.
The hair inside their noses are also efficient heat exchangers that warm up the cold air they breathe in. This makes them good insulators.
‘Deja reve’ is the term used for an experienced previously encountered in a dream.
Deja reve translates to ‘already dreamt’. It suggests that this phenomenon can lead us to better understand why dreams occur by physiologically observing the brain during this occurrence.
Jul 18, 2026; West Sacramento, California, USA; Athletics third baseman Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (44) makes a diving catch against the Washington Nationals during the fourth inning at Sutter Health Park. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Lee-Imagn Images | Dennis Lee-Imagn Images
Good morning A’s fans.
The squad couldn’t get out of Arizona with a win, getting swept by the Diamondbacks to drop the record to a tough 43-59. That’s a disappointing outcome after their strong start to the season, and the Green & Gold will be at home watching October baseball on their couches for the sixth consecutive season.
There’s still two-plus months of baseball left to go though, and the attention should be focused on how to be more prepared for next season, the final year before the team makes its move to Las Vegas. They want to hit the ground running when they enter their new digs and that means making some noise next year. If they’re going to do that they’ll need to address some holes and questions on the roster. And one of the biggest questions they have is: what is going on at third base?
Over the next couple of months the team needs to try out the internal options at the hot corner. Former first rounder Max Muncy was given first crack at it this season but failed to deliver on his lofty draft status. He’s now back with the big league squad and may get some more starts at third to hopefully show some improvement, and it’s not impossible he seizes the job over the final few weeks. But they’ve also started toying with him in the outfield so we know how the club feels about his glove on the infield right now.
Zack Gelof has made some appearances there this year but with seven errors at a new position for him he isn’t the long-term option there. Plus he’s more valuable as a versatile piece that Mark Kotsay can move around.
Then there’s the young guys in Tommy White and Joshua Kuroda-Grauer. The rookies have just made his big league debuts and both have hit well in their small sample. There was never much doubt about White’s bat and he’s shown that so far having gone 7-for-16 through his first four games. Small sample, yes.
The question is about his glove at third base. If White can prove to be passable at third then the club can cross off two positions to address this offseason since they could then plug Kuroda-Grauer at the keystone. On the other hand if the glove isn’t up to par then that makes juggling all the young position players harder moving forward since White’s only other positions (first base, DH) are blocked next year (Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker(?)). And we haven’t even welcomed star prospect Leo De Vries into the fold yet.
There’s lots of things that’ll happen over the next couple months that determine how next year unfolds. If the A’s want next year to be a success they had better use the short time left this season to try to get as many answers as possible, from third base to the outfield to the entire pitching staff.
A quick rising prospect who could make his big league debut this year?
A’s prospect Ryan Magdic is being promoted to Triple-A Las Vegas, per source. This will be his third stop this season as he continues performing well, combining for a 3.09 ERA in 21 games between High-A and Double-A with 62 strikeouts and nine walks in 58 1/3 innings.
A’s manager Mark Kotsay wanted to share this photo today of Ryan Lasko, who is in good spirits with his family in New Jersey. pic.twitter.com/3KKOuhK6Vb
SARASOTA, FL - FEBRUARY 20: Creed Willems (97) of the Baltimore Orioles bats during a spring training game against the New York Yankees on February 20, 2026 at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Florida. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Earlier this week, Camden Chat colleague Paul Folkemer examined how the prospects on our preseason top 20 prospects ranking have been performing this season. That group of players are a mix of exciting, interesting, and disappointing. There are other players in the Orioles system right now who didn’t crack that list before the season who look like they might be heading higher up the next incarnation of an O’s prospect list, if they don’t get traded sooner. Here are ten more prospects (and one non-prospect) worth some attention for what they’ve done so far this season:
Creed Willems – C/1B
A slow-developing prospect since the Orioles gave him a $1 million overslot bonus five years ago, Willems has finally made it to Triple-A for his age 23 season and he’s been getting some decent results, batting .259/.358/.431 in 70 games. This includes 13 homers, though at the same time he’s only hit two doubles. That’s peculiar.
Willems just missed about three weeks with a hamstring injury, returning earlier this week. If you’d rather see him instead of Sam Huff or Chadwick Tromp, you’re not the only one. They probably want to make sure that Willems is recovered from the hamstring before considering bringing him up into this situation. I suspect they don’t want to bring him up for a short-term absence, so we won’t see Willems this year unless either Adley Rutschman or Samuel Basallo are going to miss extended time.
Yaqui Rivera – RHP
You’ve got to be pretty good as a reliever to be worth mentioning as a prospect. Rivera, who’s only in his age 22 season, is hitting that level, holding batters to a .179 average between Chesapeake and Norfolk this season. Since joining the Tides, he’s struck out 39 batters in 32 innings. I’ve got a concerned eye on his 5.3 BB/9. It’s working out for him for now.
Bonus: Andrew Magno – LHP
He’s 28 and he’s a journeyman reliever, so he doesn’t count as a prospect in any sense, but this Tides lefty has a 0.98 ERA in 32 games. The idea of him may feel better than your least favorite member of the current Orioles bullpen. It does for me.
Ethan Anderson – C/1B
The 2024 Orioles draft class seemed like it was cursed a year ago. Its top three picks, Vance Honeycutt, Griff O’Ferrall, and Anderson, all largely flopped at High-A. The O’s promoted O’Ferrall and Anderson to Double-A this year anyway and Anderson’s looked like he’s fighting away that curse. 22 years old and still about two years younger than the average competition at the level, Anderson has batted .270/.369/.520 in 68 games.
That’s really good and mighty interesting from the switch hitter, though there’s an extreme home/road split going on here. Anderson has posted a 1.174 OPS at home and only .562 on the road. One way he hasn’t avoided the curse is that he’s on the injured list right now as a result of an ankle injury and it’s unclear when he’ll be back in action to continue building his stock.
Brandon Butterworth – IF/OF
One of the sextet of minor leaguers the Orioles received in last July’s Padres deal. Butterworth has only played in 35 games with the Baysox, though he’s back in action now. Solid results over those 35 games: .264/.377/.481. Good walk rate, good power, good speed. This is his age 23 season, so these numbers are less interesting than Anderson’s at the same level, but he’s got some things going for him and if they’re still going like this by season’s end, he’ll be a guy worth following more next season. No known connection to the syrup.
Micah Ashman – LHP
Acquired from the Tigers for Charlie Morton last year, this 23-year-old lefty reliever has been trashing Double-A over the 2026 season: 1.83 ERA in 23 games, 14.7 K/9 Like Anderson above, some odd stuff going on in the splits, including that Ashman has been much worse facing lefty batters than righties so far this season (.776 OPS allowed to lefties, .574 to righties). He’s also got a big home/away split except in the opposite direction of Anderson: .549 OPS at home, .807 OPS away.
Victor Figueroa – 1B/DH
Another of the players from the depths of that Padres trade. Figueroa is 22 and playing for High-A Frederick. He leads all Orioles minor leaguers with 22 home runs, which makes him a fun big guy to root for to beat the odds. There are some long odds to beat; he’s got a 32% strikeout rate for the season. A 1B/DH is going to have to hit and that kind of swing and miss will be tough to keep the homers going at higher levels of the minors.
RJ Austin – IF/OF
Third round pick last year, Austin has also missed some time with an injury this year, only 50 games of action. It’s gone well when he’s played, and for the season he’s working on a .271/.374/.422 line, with 27 stolen bases in 31 attempts. That’s basically “What would it look like if Enrique Bradfield had just a little bit of power?” – which is, like all of these guys, interesting! I don’t know how Austin compares defensively, and High-A is farther off from the majors.
Caden Hunter – LHP
The sixth round pick by the Orioles last year was assigned to Low-A to begin the season, where he was old for the level but nonetheless wrecking that competition. This has continued after a promotion to Frederick: 1.83 ERA, 54 strikeouts in 39.1 IP for the Keys. Walk rate is a little high (4.5 BB/9 between both levels) so there’s stuff to work on. It’s going well against these lower-level hitters, anyway: .513 OPS allowed across 250 PA. Need to see what happens in the high minors.
Twine Palmer – RHP
Arrived from the Astros for Ramón Urías last July, Palmer had a horrendous debut with the organization with Delmarva after that deal. It’s gone better for him at Frederick. This is just his age 21 season and he’s holding batters to a .206/.314/.286 line overall. Walk rate is higher than you want so there’s stuff to work on. There’s also good stuff going on, like only three homers allowed to 291 batters. It’s made for a 3.49 ERA overall.
Jaiden Lo Re – IF
Fifth round pick from an Arizona high school last year only took 20 games in the rookie Florida Complex League to convince the Orioles to send him up to a full-season affiliate, where he’s continued to look interesting. Across 30 games for Delmarva, he’s batted .340/.454/.453. Intriguing stuff for someone who’s just 19. The homer power isn’t there yet, only one so far in 131 PA. They’re playing him all over the infield. If he can sustain this next season, he’ll be a real top notch prospect.
**
Can the Orioles turn any of these guys, one way or another, into useful major leaguers? That will say a lot about the team’s chances of success next year and beyond.
ST. PETERSBURG, FL - JUNE 25: Jac Caglianone #14 of the Kansas City Royals looks on prior to the game between the Kansas City Royals and the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on Thursday, June 25, 2026 in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Alex Zadorozny/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
This year has been a very busy time for rookies signing extensions. Some of the biggest prospects have signed shortly after, or even before, being called up to the majors. It might be time for Kansas City to join the crowd, get Jac Caglianone signed up, and snag a couple of extra years of control.
First, let’s look at what the rookies have been signing for to get a feel for how the market is valuing top prospects. I am doing a mix of pure rookies and a few guys who signed after getting some big-league time, so hopefully we can triangulate a little bit.
Things to keep in mind while we go through a bunch of names and numbers: Jac is 23, and his prospect ranking from FanGraphs going into 2025 was 47th. It climbed as high as 18th before he lost prospect status. Those rankings, along with your track record as it develops, are the biggest factors that shape a contract’s size and length. Then it is just a matter of finding a balance of risk and reward for both the team and the player that gives both sides what they want. I will start with the best rookies, but the best comp is in the middle of the write-up.
Kevin McGonigle
McGonigle will turn 22 in mid-August, so he signed his extension at the very beginning of his age-21 season. The deal was announced by the Tigers on April 15, when he had amassed career totals of just 18 games played and one home run. He was ranked similarly to Cags at the beginning of 2025—54th per FanGraphs—but the 2026 list had him at fifth, so he had climbed into one of the truly elite prospect spots.
Kevin has mostly played third base this year, with a sprinkling of shortstop as well. He is listed at 5’9″ and just 187 pounds. That does not sound like a third baseman, but he has some pop despite being on the smaller side. His deal was for eight years and $150 million, with escalators that could push it to $160 million.
There are no options on the deal, so it runs straight from 2027 through 2034, which means this year was not part of the extension. That gets the Tigers three years of free agency, while McGonigle will be going into his age-30 season when he gets to test the open market. So far, he has been absolutely fantastic for Detroit, posting 4.1 fWAR this season.
Konnor Griffin
Griffin was the consensus #1 prospect in baseball coming into 2026. He was drafted ninth overall in 2024 out of high school, and he had just turned 20 when he signed this extension. This is an unusual player—you just do not see many people at the MLB level before they turn 20. When it does happen, they tend to be the cream of the crop. Juan Soto, Mike Trout, and Ken Griffey Jr. come to mind.
Despite his relative youth, Konnor has held his own as a rookie. He has been almost exactly league average with the bat and just a touch below average defensively at shortstop. He has also been hurt a couple of times and was recently moved to the 60-day IL. His future looks bright, but 2026 is not going to be a banner rookie campaign for the phenom.
His deal was for nine years and $140 million, with $10 million in incentives similar to McGonigle’s. He will still hit free agency at 29 because he is so young. The last year of the deal is 2034, the same as McGonigle’s, because 2026 is included. Both of these deals were very similar and straightforward, especially compared with more complex extensions like Bobby Witt Jr.’s or Julio Rodríguez’s.
Colt Emerson
Since JJ Wetherholt’s deal is similar to the first two and just smaller, I am going to move on to someone from a different stratum of prospect world. This is the closest comparable for Caglianone from a prospect ranking status perspective. Colt Emerson was 41st going into 2025 and started this year at 11th, both just a bit ahead of where Jac ranked at the same points. The big differences are that Emerson is younger and had not debuted with the Mariners when he signed this extension.
He has struggled a bit since being called up in the middle of May. He had a phenomenal first couple of weeks, an okay June, and has been in a terrible slump in July, posting a wRC+ of -15. It is hard to get into the negatives for that stat, but when you are hitting .132 with no extra-base hits, it can be done. Defensively, he has been pretty good, though not great.
He just turned 21 on Monday, so he is doing pretty well thus far, assuming he can get out of the slump.
His deal was announced at the end of March by Seattle with a guaranteed $95 million. It is, again, eight years through 2034, but it has more escalators that could add another $35 million or more to the total. It is similar to the first two deals but trimmed down and more incentive-oriented since he is not quite as much of a sure thing as the others. He will also hit free agency at 30.
This is the prevailing theme of these deals: get a guaranteed bag while making sure you hit free agency around or before your 30th birthday. Bobby’s opt-out is after his age-30 season too. This is probably the closest talent comp, with the age difference complicating how Caglianone might want to structure such a deal.
Cooper Pratt
Pratt is nearly 22, so he is ancient compared to his peers so far in this article. He also was not a consensus Top 100 prospect, instead falling more into the bottom-end or honorable-mention tier. Like several others on this list, he signed before making his debut and has since graduated to Milwaukee as their starting shortstop.
Cooper gets on base, has very limited power, and plays good defense. If he had more power, he would be grouped with the other guys. Since he does not, he received a guarantee of $47.5 million through 2033, and the team then has two options at $15 million each for 2034 and 2035.
He got less money and may not reach free agency as soon if things go well. I include him because of Jac’s very rough start, which took some of the shine off and might make a deal structure like this more palatable, with less guaranteed money and more incentives. It will cost more than this to get Caglianone to sign, especially since his draft bonus was $7.5 million versus Pratt’s $1.35 million.
I want to talk about some guys who are not rookies before we move on to Jac, though.
Tyler Soderstrom
I think we need to discuss Soderstrom, who had a similar pedigree in some ways, though that was shaped by being drafted out of high school rather than college. It then took Tyler a couple of runs at the big leagues before he put it all together last season, posting 3.4 fWAR and a 125 wRC+ over a full 2025 campaign.
He then signed a seven-year extension this January at age 24, which would be very similar to what Jac would be doing if he signed this coming offseason. He is even a first baseman who moved to the outfield. This is a very strong comparison for Jac.
His deal is for seven years and guarantees $86 million. There is a club option for an eighth year that would push that number to $111 million, and there are some escalators that could push it even higher. That option year would be for 2033, Tyler’s age-31 season, and the option is worth $27 million with a $2 million buyout.
To go past age 30, teams have to start paying a bigger premium to buy those years. He would have been out of arbitration before 2031, and Caglianone will not be a free agent until 2032. His deal could look something like this, just shifted slightly because of that one-year difference.
The Athletics signed a very similar deal with Jacob Wilson, though for a smaller dollar amount, just a few weeks after the Soderstrom deal.
Pete Crow-Armstrong
PCA is another similarly aged outfielder with a longer and bumpier path in the big leagues so far. This deal was signed before he became the best player in baseball this year, as he currently leads MLB in both fWAR and bWAR. He kind of did that last year too, before falling off a cliff in the second half.
His value comes much more from defense than Cags’, but I still thought it was worth taking a look at.
PCA signed the deal on his 24th birthday, and it did not affect his salary this season, his final pre-arbitration year. Starting next year, he will make $110 million over six years. Like most of these deals, the Cubs are buying two years of free agency, and then it is just a matter of whether there are options beyond that. This one has no options, and it shows how those years become much more expensive to buy out as you get closer to free agency, since he will make $30 million per year.
Would the Royals extend Jac midseason? I do not know, but the way the season is going, they could use a nice distraction. More importantly, is Cags an extension guy, or is he going to “bet on himself” and try to reach free agency as early as possible?
The looming CBA negotiations play into this, with a possible salary cap and other changes that might shift the economic landscape of the game. Again, he already got $7.5 million to sign with the team originally, which is significantly more than most of us will make in our lifetimes. There are a lot of moving parts to these deals.
Since he will be a free agent in 2032 at age 28, going into his age-29 season, it is reasonable to say he might be interested in getting a guaranteed $80-plus million in exchange for giving up a year or two of free agency, but two years is probably the maximum. Also, large first basemen can struggle to get big deals as they age. It took Pete Alonso a couple of trips through free agency to get the deal he wanted, and it was less than he had originally floated.
I am assuming a 29-year-old Jac Caglianone will not be in the outfield, since he already has a 15th-percentile range rating there. The arm does make up for the range a bit.
If I were Jac’s representatives and the Royals wanted two years of free agency, the second one would need to be a player option or a very expensive team option. That being said, the team watched him struggle mightily last season, and though he has performed well in 2026, it has been a bit uneven. April was okay, May was bad, June was great, and now July is back to being bad again.
Do you want to guarantee that much money to a player with known chase issues who is probably going to be a bit streaky? Salvador Perez is—and always has been—that guy, and it has worked out just fine. I think the structure would end up looking something like this.
2027: $1 million salary and a $5 million signing bonus
2028: $1 million
2029: $9 million
2030: $12 million
2031: $18 million
2032: $22 million
2033: $32 million team option with a $2 million buyout
That’s a guarantee of $70 million, which is about where I would be comfortable if I were the Royals. He does not get the full Soderstrom amount until he shows more consistency. If the team picks up the option, he gets to $100 million, so the deal still carries nine-figure money.
He looks like he will be worth this, and there is still a lot of upside for the team. I do wonder whether that 40-plus-homer potential makes him wait and avoid signing anything until he shows that elite power over a full season. It all depends on his risk tolerance because $70 million guaranteed is a ridiculous amount of money.
The Royals could also push some of the guaranteed money down a bit more and build in $40 million or $50 million in incentives if Jac would prefer that structure. It is something I assume the team will explore. The math just changes depending on how sure either they or Jac want to be before getting a deal done.
By this time next year, he could be anywhere from not extendable to needing $150-plus million guaranteed, so these negotiations are always a matter of timing.
HOUSTON, TEXAS - JULY 17: Taylor Ward #3 of the Baltimore Orioles runs the bases after a two run home run during the eighth inning against the Houston Astros at Daikin Park on July 17, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images) | Getty Images
In an annual tradition, Quincy will now analyze why the Guardians should trade for Taylor Ward, something I have done for five years running.
You can view our larger trade deadline piece here as we discuss a wider pool of options the Guardians may consider. To make my position clear, I expect the Guardians to make smaller moves, like trading Bo Naylor and getting a castoff/undervalued reliever. But, in the interest of exploring potential larger moves, we are doing a series looking at some of those bigger names. So far, we have discussed Spencer Steer , Luis Arraez and Shea Langeliers.
Ward has a 120 wRC+ for a Baltimore Orioles team currently three games under .500. Given that Ward is a free agent following the season, one would suspect that if the Orioles don’t make another sustained run in the next week, they’ll be willing to trade Ward.
Is Ward’s current 17% walk-rate sustainable? Probably not. But chances are also good he’ll find his way back to a slugging rate closer to his career .429 vs. his current .362. His bat speed IS down 1 mph and his average exit velo is down about the same amount. However, he’s still 7.4 runs above average against fastballs. There is risk, of course, but I can see betting that Ward will find his way to a more usual power level given that his other plate discipline skills have shown up.
Ward is an average left fielder who would push Kwan to center. Like any right-handed hitter, his home run totals would be affected as his 120 career homers would be 105 with Progressive Field as his home park. It isn’t as pronounced as it could be because Ward is not simply a pulled fly-ball launcher and can use all fields.
Again, I would not touch Angel Genao, Ralphy Velazquez, Braylon Doughty or any major league pieces for Ward. Ward’s career 132 wRC+ against LHP would be very helpful, but the risk that he may be at the beginning of a decline may prevent teams like Cleveland for paying for his services. But, hey, I have long loved Ward so I would happily assume he will win us a World Series should they acquire him
A resulting lineup might look like:
Kwan CF
Ward LF
Jose 3B
DeLauter RF
Bazzana 2B
Hopkins DH
Manzardo 1B
Rocchio SS
Bailey C
What do you think? Let me know in the comments below!
Jul 18, 2026; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (7) makes a diving stop during the third inning against the San Diego Padres at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
Good morning everyone!
The Mariners fell to the Reds in heartbreaking fashion yesterday, with a 5-3 score putting them below .500 more than 100 games into the season. The Mariners — and fans — take the day off today before heading to Texas for a critical four-game series.
Let’s check in on everything happening around baseball.
The Tigers have muddled their deadline picture with a strong couple of weeks. Ryan Blake’s latest piece at Fangraphs evaluates what the team may do next.
In Hollywood baseball news, A-lister Glen Powell has been cast as Lou Gehrig in an untitled upcoming movie coming from Universal, with Richard Linklater set to direct.
In an effort to help curb expensive equipment costs for youth sports leagues, the Oakland Parks, Recreation and Youth Development department debuted a new program that allows kids to borrow equipment via the Park Play Lending Library.
Jeff Passan at ESPN did some important investigative journalism on the limits of AI capacity.
Jul 20, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; New York Mets third baseman Bo Bichette (19) hits an RBI double during the eighth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images | Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images
It’s been a disaster in Queens. The Mets are no longer the second-worst team in baseball, now merely tied with the Royals for the fourth-worst record. There’s some kind of a reset coming, with the team itself leaking that outside of Juan Soto and a couple young building blocks, anyone who can be moved is subject to being moved. Enter Bo Bichette.
Still just 28, Bichette inked a three-year, $126 million contract in the offseason, one that came with a pair of opt-outs after this year and next. It has not yet worked out for the Mets, with their shortstop/third baseman managing just a 90 wRC+ and a break-even defensive performance. Opt-outs or no, his contract stands out as one of the deals that the club would love to get off the books, and that makes him available at somewhat of a discount.
The question that needs to be answered, given the Yankees have a need for more thump at third base, is whether or not we can expect Bichette to hit better than he has to this point.
Off the top, FanGraphs’ Depth Charts projections thinks so, pegging him for a 110 wRC+ the rest of the season. If that bears out, that’s 26 points better than Ryan McMahon is managing on the season, and 28 points better than the Yankees have seen from the proverbial hot corner in 2026. Bichette’s underperforming all of his major expected stats — xBA by 27 points, xSLG by 39 points, and xwOBA by 32. All else equal, Bo should start hitting better.
And truth be told, he has been hitting better than his absolutely putrid first two months. There’s something to be encouraged about with Bo.
The problem is, baseball can stay irrational longer than you can stay in playoff contention. Bichette should hit better the rest of the way. I don’t know if the transition to a new team was part of the problem he had in the season’s first eight weeks, but if it is, you run the risk of that happening again. Bichette’s injury troubles over the last three seasons also introduce some significant downside risk on the contract.
There’s a lot of incentive for Bo to overperform in the stretch run of the year, so he can opt out and net himself another $100 millionish guaranteed. However, that injury concern plus the uncertainty of the CBA negotiations could force his hand and have him decide on a little more stability, in which case the Yankees need to work out a significant amount of salary relief in any deal.
A significant amount of salary relief increases the prospect cost going back to Queens, and this is where it just gets too complicated with Bichette. Maybe he comes to the Bronx, hits to a .360 wOBA like he did a year ago, and gives the Yankees real production at third. There’s just not enough certainty in that happening, weighed against the downsides of injury and the contract structure. Prospect capital is best spent elsewhere than bailing out Steve Cohen’s backup backup signing.
The 2026 Major League Baseball trade deadline is Aug. 3 at 6 p.m. EST. And for the next two weeks, the Friar Faithful will be inundated with Mason Miller trade rumors. The media experts have the San Diego Padres as definite sellers and maintain the organization will trade Miller to the highest bidder.
Despite all the speculation, people are seeking the truth about what the Padres will actually do with baseball’s premier closer.
Miller is not your average trade deadline candidate
Miller is not your typical trade deadline candidate, as he is not eligible to become a free agent at the conclusion of the 2026 season. In fact, the closer is under team control for three more seasons. Miller is arbitration-eligible for the 2027, 2028 and 2029 seasons.
No question, Miller is a bargain with a $4 million salary price tag for this season. But it is his dominance in the ninth inning that is the reason why he has become a hot commodity at the trade deadline for the second consecutive year.
Thus, the Padres have three options available: keep Miller, deal him to the highest bidder, or sign their closer to a long-term contract that buys out his arbitration years.
The latter might make the Friar Faithful increasingly pessimistic with the trade deadline less than 14 days away. But it is the right move.
Keep baseball’s best closer in America’s Finest City
The Padres have the best closer in baseball, but if they decide to trade him, the organization will not receive equal value in return. A year ago, Miller was acquired in a trade deadline deal with the Athletics. The price tag was steep, as the Friars dealt Leo De Vries, who is considered one of the top minor league prospects.
Most contending teams rarely like breaking up their existing roster. They may offer a package that includes their organization’s third, fourth, and fifth-best pitching prospects. The return will not equal Miller or the potential value of De Vries, as you must account for giving up an elite five-tool talent the year before.
Miller is a building block
Instead, sign your star pitcher to a long-term deal and build around him. Young talent is working its way through the minor league system. Yes, the extension will be expensive, but the organization is securing the majors’ best closer in his prime at a fixed cost.
Good front offices negotiate deals that work for both sides. It is A.J. Preller’s job to find the number that Miller is willing to give up his arbitration years. You may have to be creative, such as deferring money that would lower the contract’s value in the MLB’s luxury tax system.
It is tough to figure out how the Miller dilemma will play out. He will be dealt if Preller can secure a dream package from another team.
However, keeping Miller long-term is the right move.
COVERS INTEL:
