Category: Baseball

My favorite novel is “Fight Club” by  Chuck Palahniuk. There are tons of philosophical nuggets in the book and one of them is my moniker for everything analytics. “On a long enough timeline the survival rate drops to zero.” In other words, given enough time and data, the underlying metrics and outward metrics will align. This is almost universally true and there are very few instances where it is not true. Those instances are usually the most interesting ones and the ones we can learn a lot from.

Enter Jose Altuve. Altuve is one of the more fascinating statistical studies in history. Obviously, there is a whole lot going on physically as well. However, in this edition we are focused just on the numbers. For his entire career, sources like Statcast would predict failure for Altuve. He doesn’t hit the ball as hard as others. He swings too often (in general), and the quality of his contact is not nearly as good as the elite hitters in baseball. Yet, he has spent most of his career as one of the more elite hitters in baseball. It just doesn’t make sense.

We will do the same thing with Altuve that we have done with Cam Smith and Yainer Diaz, but that is only the last two seasons. To better understand Altuve we need to look at the total career. The underlying numbers follow a particular pattern that fits, but they don’t fit the outward numbers we see from day to day. Let’s start with those.

Conventional Numbers

	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP	wOBA	wRC+
2025	.265	.329	.442	.283	.331	113
2026	.241	.327	.376	.290	.316	98

All players decay. We just don’t necessarily know the ways they will decay until we see it. Some struggle to remain healthy. Some see their speed and reflexes erode. Others lose their ability to field. Some of them suffer equally in all of those areas. Altuve has been fairly durable (knock on wood) but he is leaking oil in terms of offensive and defensive effectiveness.

Being a league average hitter at 36 is not necessarily a bad thing and there is time for him to have a hot streak and get back above water. In some ways, he is aging much like Craig Biggio aged. The fascinating thing is in the ways that it manifests itself. Biggio cheated on pitches and collected more doubles and homers when he guessed right. Yet, he was susceptible to that slider in the dirt late in his career. Altuve’s magical power was being able to put the bat on the ball in almost any instance.

Altuve had a career .330 BABIP until the last couple of seasons. You give him those 50 points back and suddenly he looks like the Altuve of old. The loss of BABIP “luck” can be explained through the nature of contact, but also diminished speed. At his peak, he was averaging 30 to 40 infield singles a season. Even if you cut those in half you severely hamper that average. He officially has eight so far on the season according to Baseball Savant, so that probably does not explain what is going on this season, but that will be a general certainty moving forward.

Statcast Numbers

	xAVG	xOBP	xSLG	xwOBA
2025	.237	.301	.384	.300
2026	.247	.333	.362	.310

Here comes the analyst’s nightmare. Do you go in the direction that 99 percent of the numbers will go or do you go with the way Altuve’s career has unfolded to this point? Based on the former, Altuve is pretty much producing what he is expected to produce. That has the look of a below average player overall, but somehow better than he was last season.

The flip side is that Altuve has outproduced his Statcast numbers in every full season of his career. So, you could be forgiven if you predicted better than what these numbers currently show. Notice the difference between his wOBA and xwOBA last season (.331 vs. .300). Does this mean he is destined for a .340 wOBA? I don’t think that kind of exact overperformance is likely, but it would be completely reasonable based on his career norms to project a .320 to .325 wOBA.

In most seasons that would be around the league average. Altuve’s magic power has been impressive productivity given his ability to remain in the lineup. So, the runs, hits, and other counting numbers will continue to mount for a player marching to Cooperstown. Of course, this is scratching the surface on Altuve. Let’s take a look at why Statcast has the numbers it has.

Quality of Contact

	EV	Barrel	Hardhit
2025	85.1	6.2	30.9
2026	85.3	6.7	34.6

Numbers will always say more than one thing at the same time. These numbers say that he has been better in 2026 than he was in 2025. They also say that he isn’t even an average hitter when looking at these numbers alone. Most players have a higher exit velocity. More than half have more barrels. They certainly hit the ball harder.

Numbers like Statcast work because they are based on assumptions. They assume that hitters are more or less the same. They can control the quality of the contact but cannot control the result. So, we assume a neutral result over time. It does not account for hitters that are able to find weaknesses in the defense. Pick your favorite hitter in history and most of them probably have the ability to hit against the defense and pick holes in the defense. Older fans will wax poetic about how the guys in the good ole days could do this, but as a general rule this was not true. The Tony Gwynns, Rod Carews, and Wade Boggs of the world are not normal. That is why they are in the Hall of Fame.

Jose Altuve is one of those guys. He might not quite be on their level, but he also dove into his power more than them. If he had continued on the slap hitter track he might have approached their numbers. This season has been a tale of two seasons. In the first couple of weeks he was a new hitter that took a ton of pitches. In the last three or four weeks he has returned to the Altuve of old. Let’s see where the growth can happen.

Areas of Growth

	Chase	Swing%	Contact%	Zone%
2025	38.3	49.1	82.0	45.1
2026	31.1	46.5	77.6	45.4

If we take these numbers at face value and offer no context then we would say that Altuve is a much approved hitter in terms of his approach. The reality is that the Altuve with a 11+ percent walk rate hasn’t been here in a couple of weeks. Naturally, hope springs eternal and he could return to that. The reasonable hope is that the numbers would hold where they are and this would become a jumping off point.

Altuve’s superpower was his ability to put the bat on just about any pitch. Age has diminished that ability and he has become an ordinary mortal. He still has the ability to turn weak contact into hits where others cannot, but he is striking out more often and that is zapping his ability to hit for the higher averages that we were used to during his prime.

I feel reasonably certain that Altuve won’t hit .250 or worse this season once the dust has settled, but we are seeing steady erosion of his skills. These are the push and pull factors that every player must face at the end of their career. You add more numbers with each passing year, but you also diminish the overall quality. Altuve is now clearly in accumulation territory.

The New York Mets (14-23) travel to the desert to face the Arizona Diamondbacks (17-19) in a three-game series. While the Mets have won their last two series against bad teams, they still co-own the worst record in baseball and have a lot more work to do before convincing fans that they’re a serious baseball team.

All one needs to do is look at yesterday’s lineup and pitchers used to tell the story about why this team is in trouble. Austin Slater bating fourth? Andy Ibañez batting sixth? Craig Kimbrel coming into a tie game? Come on now.

Now part of this was clearly a result of injury and part of it was trying to maximize right-handedness against a left handed starter. But a lineup that included Slater, Ibañez, Tyrone Taylor, and Vidal Brujan is a March 7 spring training lineup, not a May 7 lineup. It is much easier said than done to improve a team in the first seven weeks of a season, but part of the frustration that Mets fans feel is due to the fact that nothing has really been done to address the team’s struggles.

This is not a call to fire Carlos Mendoza, but rather a plea to do anything to shake things up a little bit. Until that happens, there is very little that will convince fans that the organization is taking the situation as seriously as it should.

That said? If the Mets can keep winning series, all of this will be moot. And while beating the Angels and Rockies shouldn’t be lauded too loudly, it is better than the alternative. The Mets will face the Yankees in one week, and that is easily the best team in their upcoming schedule, so it is imperative that they hold their own against Arizona, the Tigers, the Nationals, and the Marlins in the next few weeks. There’s every chance that the Mets are near .500 by the end of the month if they can rattle off some wins, and then this is a very different conversation on June 8.

Fortunately for the Mets, the Diamondbacks have hit a skid after a hot-streak in early to mid-April. Losers of 11 of their last 17, the Snakes have won just one of their last six series. The Mets are also getting the D-backs’ two worst starters (but also their best) and the Mets are throwing their two best pitchers (and an unknown) in the series. This seems like a series that is very winnable for the Mets, and would be a nice way to wrap up this road trip.

Standing in their way are Corbin Carroll and Ildemaro Vargas, both of whom are off to hot starts, as well as the always dangerous Ketel Marte, who is off to a slow one. When the D-backs have won lately, it has been by large margins (9-0 against he Pirates, 12-7 over the Padres, 11-7 over the White Sox), but those days seem few and far between.

Nolan McLean vs Ryne Nelson, 9:40pm EDT on PIX11

McLean (2026): 39.1 IP, 51 K, 11 BB, 2 HR, 2.50 ERA, 2.12 FIP, 75 ERA-

The Mets have only won one of McLean’s seven starts thus far, but none of that is McLean’s fault. Two of those losses have come in extra-innings affairs, and in five of his seven starts, he’s given up two or fewer earned runs. McLean is more than just holding his own in the rotation, much like a young Jacob deGrom did with minimal run support.

Nelson(2026): 31.1 IP, 28 K, 15 BB, 6 HR, 6.61 ERA, 5.50 FIP, 159 ERA-

Nelson had an all-time bad start against the Blue Jays on April 19th, lasting just one-third of an inning but giving up a staggering eight earns runs on eight hits. His next start went longer, but yielded six earned runs. He settled down agains the Cubs last week, but he has had a rough go as of late.

Clay Holmes vs Merrill Kelly, 7:15pm EDT on FOX

Holmes(2026): 42.2 IP, 31 K, 14 BB, 3 HR, 1.69 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 42 ERA-

I don’t think anyone expecting Holmes to be this good a year plus into his transition to starting, but the results speak for themselves. He’s pitched into the sixth in all but one start and into the seventh in three starts. In his last two starts, he’s given up just one earned run and seven hits over 12 and tw0-thirds innings.

Kelly(2026): 19.0 IP, 14 K, 15 BB, 6 HR, 9.95 ERA, 8.14 FIP, 240 ERA-

Kelly’s first start of the year came in April 14, and he had a good one: five and a third innings pitched, two earned runs, three strikeouts. But since then, it’s been real bad. Each start has seen at least five earned runs, no more than five innings pitched, and he’s walked as many batters as he’s struck out.

TBD vs Eduardo Rodriguez, 4:10pm EDT on SNY

Rodriguez (2026): 39.2.0 IP, 29 K, 19 BB, 4 HR, 2.50 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 60 ERA-

Rodriguez is having the best start of any Diamondback to the season, and he just had his best start of the year against the Pirates where he pitched seven innings of two-hit, shutout baseball. He’s waking more folks than he should, but so far he’s limiting the damage by not allowing many hits and limiting home runs, aside from one game when the White Sox took him deep twice.

Yesterday was School Day at the K, and hundreds, perhaps thousands, of Kansas City-area children were attending their first Royals game (and learning early on that being a Royals fan means seeing a lot of losing!) Despite the loss, it was a beautiful day in a beautiful ballpark, and they got to see a couple of dingers. Hopefully they’ll be back.

Most of you have probably been to Kauffman Stadium dozens, if not hundreds of times. But do you remember the first game you attended? I think my parents may have taken me to see the Royals when I was very young, but I do not remember. The first game I really remember was in April of 1988, when I had just become a rabid baseball fan. Because of the details I can recall, I have been able to pinpoint exactly when the game was. What I remember was:

• The Baltimore Orioles were in the middle of an epic losing streak to begin the season, and the Royals were losing to them before coming back.
• The Royals pinch-hit Thad Bosley, and people around me groaned. I learned what a “pinch-hitter” was that day. I also learned Royals fans can be very sarcastic and use salty language!
• The Royals won in the bottom of the ninth on a walk-off hit. No fireworks back then though!

Using the power of the internet, I can find it was this game on April 23. Thanks for the game-winner, Kurt Stillwell! That Orioles team lost their first 21 games of the year. Woof!

Do you remember your first Royals games? What do you remember about the game? About seeing the stadium in person for the first time? Share your memories!

Mookie Betts is starting a minor league rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City, and will play for the Comets on Friday and Saturday, the team announced on Thursday. Saturday marks the five-week mark since Betts strained his right oblique.

BREAKING: Eight-time All-Star, four-time World Series champ and former MVP Mookie Betts is scheduled to play for the Comets Friday & Saturday as part of a Major League Rehab Assignment!

🎟️: https://t.co/eeScJIhiNv

(Note: Scheduled rehab assignments are subject to change.) pic.twitter.com/ihauVeAsHH

— Oklahoma City Comets (@OKC_comets) May 7, 2026

Kiké Hernández is already with Oklahoma City and has played two games so far for the Comets, manning third base on Tuesday and on Thursday, five innings in each game. Hernández is on the 60-day injured list and can’t be activated until May 24 at the earliest, so his rehab will last a little while.

Betts is likely a more immediate return, health permitting of course. When he missed two months in 2024 after breaking his hand, Betts didn’t play in any rehab games at all before getting activated. Betts hasn’t played in a minor league game since August 9, 2015 for the Double-A Portland Sea Dogs while on the injured list with the Boston Red Sox, and that rehab assignment lasted all of one game.

The Dodgers have been deliberate with his rehab, backing off various drills or batting practice depending on how his oblique responded. That he’s ready to play in rehab games suggests he’s turned a corner.

“There’s no magic formula to this. You can do as much rehab as you want. Obliques just take time, it’s always four to six weeks, no matter however you want to twist it,” Betts said at Dodger Stadium last week. “We’re close, and after that it’s going to get a lot better.”

With Betts out, Hyeseong Kim has taken the lion’s share of playing time, starting 22 games at shortstop with Miguel Rojas starting seven times. Alex Freeland has remained at second base, the job he won in spring training, and do date has started 29 of 37 games at the position this season, with Rojas starting at second base five times and Santiago Espinal three times.

When Betts gets activated, someone on the roster has to go, with likely another roster move needed in two and a half weeks or so when Hernández is ready to go. But for now let’s focus on the near term.

Freeland and Kim can be optioned to the minors. Espinal, who has also started three times at third base, has over five years of service time and cannot be sent to the minors without his consent, so he’d need to be designated for assignment if the team wants to move on. Here’s how they’ve done do date:

• Freeland: .253/.330/.363, 97 wRC+, 105 PA, .314 wOBA, .307 xwOBA, +2 fielding run value
• Kim: .314/.372/429, 126 wRC+, 78 PA, .356 wOBA, .338 xwOBA, +2 fielding run value
• Espinal: .185/.185/.259, 17 wRC+, 29 PA, .195 wOBA, .272 xwOBA, +1 fielding run value

Today’s question is which Dodgers player will be jettisoned from the active roster when Mookie Betts returns from the injured list?

Art López could always hit. Despite an injured throwing arm that limited his effectiveness in the outfield, a diminutive stature, and little fanfare, he played until the age of 36, winning championships in six different countries. A hit tool can carry a ballplayer quite a long way, and despite his brief MLB career, the man had a fascinating life.

Arturo “Art” López Rodríguez 
Born: May 8, 1937 (Mayaguez, Puerto Rico)
Yankees Tenure: 1965

López grew up in Mayaguez, a city on the west coast of Puerto Rico. In addition to excelling in volleyball, he took an early interest in baseball, playing third base in sandlot games and closely following the Puerto Rican Winter League. The López family moved to New York in the late ‘40s, settling in in the Bronx, where young Art attended Morris High School. He quickly became a Yankees fan, later recalling the autographs he secured from the likes of Phil Rizzuto and Vic Raschi.

As was the norm in that era, López played not only high school ball but softball and stickball with neighborhood kids. A burgeoning baseball career was temporarily interrupted by four years of service in the Navy. Upon his return, he joined the Central Park League, playing amateur ball around New York, including a stint under manager John Candelaria Sr. (father of the longtime MLB pitcher who played for the Yankees in 1988 and ‘89).

López hit well enough to draw the attention of Yankees scout Art Dede, who invited him to a showcase at Yankee Stadium in addition to watching him play in several Central Park League games. In one of those games, López threw his bat in frustration after a strikeout but later homered. “When you strike out, don’t throw the bat,” Dede chided him after the game. Three days later, the scout showed up at López’s home and offered him a pro contract.

The outfielder steadily rose through the Yankees’ system, hitting .338 at Single-A in 1963 and .315 at Triple-A the following season. After an outstanding spring training performance that netted him the James P. Dawson Award for best performance by a Yankees rookie in 1965, López made the Opening Day roster for his beloved Yankees. He debuted in the season’s first game, pinch-running for a 33-year-old Mickey Mantle and coming around to score. He’d end up splitting the season between New York and Triple-A Toledo, recording just seven hits and one walk in 51 plate appearances in what would end up being his only MLB action.

After another season spent back in the minors, López accepted an offer from the Tokyo Orions that would make him the first Puerto Rican to play pro ball in Japan — even if the Orions initially thought they were signing his Yankees teammate, Hector López.

Despite the confusion at the outset of the deal, it turned into a happy ending. It was here that the erstwhile Yankee would play his best baseball. In four seasons with the club (which changed its name to the Lotte Orions in 1969), López hit .300 with 91 home runs, making two All-Star teams and helping lead the 1970 Orions to the pennant. He played two more years for the Yakult Atoms before handing up his spikes at the age of 36.

López reached out to Yankees owner George Steinbrenner inquiring about employment opportunities from his former club but never heard back. Instead, he launched what would be a long and fruitful second act in banking and insurance, eventually earning three master’s degrees and going into education. On the occasion of his 89th birthday, join us in wishing a very happy birthday to a man whose brief stint in pinstripes was just one chapter in an extraordinary life.

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See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Your 2026 New York Mets: It just didn’t go our way there

“It was close. Especially from our angle, I couldn’t tell. And whatever they called on the field, I was pretty sure it was going to stand. And we called down and [replay analyst] Harrison [Friedland] said the same thing — there’s not an angle there where you could really tell whether it was fair or foul, and it just didn’t go our way there.” -Carlos Mendoza [MLB]

I feel like a theme of this season is a lot of ‘hoping’ and ‘feeling’…

“I was hoping it was foul, but after they called it fair and after looking at it, they decided it was a home run.” -Craig Kimbrel [MLB]

“With first and third, I was just trying to get a strikeout. And I felt like I did. Felt like [Willi Castro] went on the check swing, and it turned into a ball. Which turned into a grand slam.” -Craig Kimbrel [MLB]

… the other theme is players giving quotes along the lines that ‘it’s difficult not being there for the team’

“It is difficult, but at the end of the day, some things you can’t control. I’ve just got to keep going, keep working, just trying to get better to get back as soon as possible, and just trying to help the team. But it’s difficult not to be there.” -Jorge Polanco [New York Daily News]

My twice quoting that I “respect the decision” has people asking a lot of questions already answered by quote

“I respect the decision. Obviously, coming third time through the order and you have a lead there and you obviously want to hold it. I left those pitches arm-side for the four-pitch walk there, but I respect the decision.” -Christian Scott [MLB]

Huge go head home run by Ronny Mauricio but /Insert notecard that ‘Poochie died on the way to his home planet’ reference/

“It feels great to be able to help the team in a situation like that — obviously a situation where my hit put us ahead. We’re coming out here, we’re working, we’re doing everything we have to do to get out in front. It feels excellent.” -Ronny Mauricio [MLB]

While the Thursday’s loss was disappointing, let’s have a palate cleanser and acknowledge that the Mets did win two series on the road this past week

“We can’t sit here and think about the past. It’s one day at a time. But it’s good to see the guys playing loose, with confidence, just playing their games.” -Carlos Mendoza [MLB]

“You want to have good games in this ballpark. It’s a good place to hit. It’s a big outfield. The ball carries. Juan starting off with a home run was good for everybody just to feel like it’s going to be a good day. And it definitely was.” -Marcus Semien [MLB]

“To punch first in the first inning … it’s always great.” -Juan Soto [MLB]

“I think it’s what I was personally expecting. I think this is who we are. We just have to keep it that way — that’s it. Without thinking about the past.” Freddy Peralta [MLB]

“They’re playing the game the way they’re capable. There’s a lot of smiles on their faces. It’s good to see them having fun.” -Carlos Mendoza [MLB]

I mean, Benge is the current owner of a wRC+ of 74, but he is healthy, so this is factually correct…

“[Carson Benge] can play. He can play.” -Carlos Mendoza [MLB]

…and it’s probably a good sign when we cleared runway so that the team can learn if a top prospect panics when they continuously fail…

“Even when it was really, really hard for [Carson Benge], I never sensed any type of panicking. He handled it pretty well. He continues to show a lot of good signs on and off the field.” -Carlos Mendoza [MLB]

…but in all seriousness, he did make a real nice play last Sunday and might be starting to hit

“I dove still not knowing but I know I was going to try to make a play for my guys.” -Carson Benge [MLB]

So to all you mother’s out there, happy birthday

“There’s so many times that she’s [his mother, Alana Hix] driven my truck. She probably has more miles on it than I do. There’s so many times that she’s driven my truck. She probably has more miles on it than I do.” -Austin Warren [MLB]

“She’s been there every step of the way.” -Austin Warren [MLB]

Swaggy V is coming back (wRC+ 89)

“I feel good. I just want to keep on it and keep putting good at-bats together.” -Mark Vientos [MLB]

“We’ve seen it. We haven’t seen that in a while, but when [Vientos] gets hot, man, he can carry a team.” -Carlos Mendoza [MLB]

“The injuries for sure suck. I’m not too happy about those. I just feel like if I trust my process and my routine throughout the season, eventually I’m going to come through and I’m going to do my thing.” -Mark Vientos [MLB]

Just wanted to note this fun story about a fan that celebrated attending his 10,000 MLB game by Matt Monagan

“My father took me to Yankee Stadium on May 26, 1963. I was 10 1/2 years old. The Yankees won the first game, the Senators won the second game.” -Mike Casiano [MLB]

Congrats on Luis Torrens on getting his first extension of his career

“I’m really happy about it. Ever since I got here to the Mets, everyone has treated me great. I feel like I’m a part of the family, and there’s great value in that.” -Luis Torrens [MLB]

Just in case you missed it, probably due to Steve Gelb’s viral moment when he reported on the vending machine’s at Great American Ballpark in 2024, we have a new segment ‘Let’s Be Frank with Steve Gelbs’

“To me, this is a classic beer-and-dog baseball game hot dog. For that reason … I’m going to give it a 5.5.” David Wright [MLB]

It’s amazing that it’s been a whole decade since this happened

“Oh, [Bartolo Colon] works. He takes pride in it. He works his butt off. Out of his five-day cycle, he probably hits three out of the five days, and probably takes 40 to 50 swings a day. He’s a strong guy. He’s got tremendous hand strength. When he squares it up, it goes. So we’re not surprised he hit a home run. We’re surprised he hit it in a game.” -Pat Roessler assistant hitting coach [MLB]

Wishing Pete and Brandon the best with their new teams

“I feel like that having that respect from the guys I was with every day, the guys that I was going to battle every day with, so to speak — whether it be from the manager and other players — having that respect is obviously nice,” Alonso said before the Orioles opened a four-game series at Yankee Stadium. “But there’s no final conversation from a brass or ownership standpoint.” -Pete Alonso [ESPN]

“[If he was surprised by not having a final conversation] No, not really because I think things were kind of progressing in the way with Baltimore, and they were just like, ‘OK, all right.’ The No. 1 thing through the whole process … it’s kind of when you’re going through free agency and things are coming across, when things are so good you really don’t want to mess that.” -Pete Alonso [ESPN]

"There is a certain type of player and type of person that it takes in order to be in New York and I understand that better now"

Brandon Nimmo talks about how it's "a lot more laid back" playing in Texas: pic.twitter.com/FFzONKBNRY

— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) May 5, 2026

The Kansas City Royals just wrapped a pivotal series against the Cleveland Guardians, and there is plenty to unpack, from a wave of pitching injuries to the emergence of some intriguing names from within the organization.

Jacob Milham and Jeremy Greco open with the injury news reshaping the Royals’ rotation outlook. Cole Reagins, Noah Cameron, and Carlos Estevez are all dealing with health concerns, and the guys break down what each absence means for roster construction and how the front office might respond, whether through internal call-ups, bullpen games, or a move at the trade deadline. Minor league starters Ryan Ramsey and Stephen Kolek are squarely in the conversation, and both get a thorough evaluation.

The bullpen remains a strength, and the debut of reliever Eric Cerantola is one of the episode’s highlights. Jacob and Jeremy dig into his strikeout profile, pitch extension, and how his release point and tunneling could make him a legitimate weapon. Meanwhile, Lucas Erceg’s recent outings get a fresh look, and the hosts draw a fascinating comparison to Mason Miller, who is quietly putting together one of the most dominant relief seasons in the league.

In the outfield, Isaac Collins, Kyle Isbel, and Lane Thomas are all part of a broader conversation about how Kansas City’s depth is evolving. Prospect Kendry Chourio’s workload management and timeline for a potential promotion also get attention, as does David Shields’ continued development in the system.

The episode rounds out with a look ahead to the upcoming series against the Detroit Tigers, a breakdown of the Royals’ bullpen metrics since April, and a nod to Bobby Witt Jr.’s MLB The Show takeover.

Need your Royals fix? Head to royalsreview.com for news, analysis, and to engage with Royals fans around the world! Follow us online:

BlueSky
– Jeremy Greco: @hokius.fromthehawkseye.com
– Jacob Milham: @jacobmilhkc.bsky.social

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– Podcast: @RoyalRundownPod

The first inning of Andrew Painter’s start against the Athletics was a painful one. The first four batters all reached base safely and all scored thanks to home runs by Shea Langeliers and Brent Rooker. The pitch to Langeliers was a bad one, one that got appropriately punished, but the home run to Rooker wasn’t a horrible pitch at all. He just was able to get his hands in enough, fast enough, that he pulled the ball into the seats.

Reaction to this start wasn’t exactly the kind that would lend itself to people being happy with Painter, justifiably so. He just wasn’t good.

Of course, there were some over the top reactions…

WTF IS ANDREW PAINTER DOING 🤬💔

He is clearly not ready for the big leagues yet. pic.twitter.com/Ajtuk7bwq3

— BohmIsKing (@BohmIsKing) May 7, 2026

Send Andrew Painter down and sign @BauerOutage

— Jig Newton (@JigNewtonss) May 8, 2026

At least there are Mets fans out there keeping the perspective squarely where it needs to be.

I wish I could laugh about how trash Andrew Painter is but my team is ass pic.twitter.com/mexjv21gWx

— Unbiased Mets Fan (@TheMetsX) May 7, 2026

There are reasons to have some concern with where Painter is at right now, but for me, that’s a matter of perspective. Should there be panic buttons being pressed over what he has done so far? Should there be larger concerns about his future role on the team? Are we going to have to sweep him aside into the dustbin labeled “bust” for those prospects that failed?

For at least one of those questions, it’s far too early for that. Even the most cynical Phillies fan that is around can admit that labeling Painter a bust already is foolhardy. Seven games into a major league pitching career is simply not enough to make major determinations about anything this season, let alone the ones that follow. There has to be time for adjustment to the routine of being a major league pitching, adjusting to the lineups that are getting the scouting reports, learning how to be a complete pitcher rather than a guy with good stuff. Putting to bed the idea that Painter is somehow a bust should be easy enough.

However, there could be some legitimate concerns about Painter’s ultimate ceiling as a prospect. When coming up, he was billed as someone who might have an arsenal would lay waste to lineups across the game. The scourge known as Tommy John surgery has now cast into doubt if that ceiling can ever be reached, particularly when considering his stuff has taken a legitimate step back. Check any scouting report from before his 2023 injury on Baseball Prospectus:

Painter’s report presents some Rorschach test qualities for modern prospect evaluation. Both Jeffrey Paternostro and I saw him live last year and thought he was very good but not great from an eye-scouting perspective…A data-driven look at Painter will show him as a potential ace. His fastball velocity actually plays up due to carry and extension, and while he doesn’t have great visual command he fills up the top edges of the zone with pitches batters cannot drive and often cannot even make contact on. The breaking balls work well in concert with each other as a diving curve and sweeping slider—two distinct breaking balls in the same velocity band is a feature, not a bug, and those are two good breaking ball shapes—and the changeup may not be used often but has good potential. He sliced and diced through Low-A, High-A, and Double-A without any real challenge, and it’s not impossible that he makes the MLB rotation out of spring training—as a 19-year-old.

Compare that to what see now:

Since his return in the 2024 AFL, Painter’s stuff has moderately declined compared to 2022…While even this version of Painter is a good pitching prospect, there’s nothing special there to separate him from dozens of other pitchers with solid arm speed, a developing but underutilized changeup, and some capacity for spin. At the same time, we can’t fully ignore that this was his first full season back from Tommy John, and therefore it makes sense to build in a reasonable chance of further shape and command bouncebacks.

Not the trajectory anyone was really look for in his career, but this is what happens when the return from that kind of surgery doesn’t happen in a linear fashion. As we’ve seen in his debut month, his stuff and command both look as though they are trying to get back to where once were, but it’s fair to wonder if they ever will. Does the ceiling that many were projecting for him even exist any longer? Maybe, maybe not.

Is it fair to wonder if maybe the expectations of his ultimate ceiling should be throttled down? Absolutely. While it might be seen by some as another organizational failure to develop a front of the rotation starter from within, the fact is that the team does have Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo in place for at least the next five years to handle the top two spots in the rotation. Needing to have Painter be that frontline starter is no longer a necessity….but it still would be nice if he could get there.

But let’s not hit the panic button yet on him. He’s still only 23 years old and has made seven appearances thus far in the majors. He does need to be better, which means he and the coaching staff need to figure out what is going wrong lately, particularly when it pertains to his fastball. However, there is plenty of time for him to adjust to whatever the league sees and become something better than what he has shown in his last two starts.

2026 has been a breakout season for CJ Abrams on the offensive side of the ball, posting a .401 OBP, .960 OPS, and hitting 9 home runs entering play today. He is hitting the ball harder than ever, and his improved approach at the plate has led to a career-low strikeout rate and a career-high walk rate.

The one area Abrams has not made a stride this season is defensively, as in 36 games at shortstop this season, he ranks in the 1st percentile of Outs Above Average at -6. Many hoped Abrams could make improvements at short this season under the new regime, but unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case, as he is currently on pace for the worst defensive season of his career.

The most difficult balls for Abrams this season have been ones he has to charge in on, as he’s had at least -4 OAA on those types of batted balls the last 3 years, and is up to -5 OAA on them already this season. He has been better on balls hit to his left this season, posting a -1 OAA so far this season compared to -6 in 2025, but the overall body of work at shortstop has been lackluster yet again for him.

🚨CHANGE 53🚨

4/20 @Braves at @Nationals

T9 Mike Yastrzemski reaches on a fielder's choice error by shortstop CJ Abrams, instead of an infield single. As a result, both runs that scored later in the inning are now unearned to Julian Fernandez

Change 4 for WAS#BravesCountry… pic.twitter.com/tDQ3PUwoOz

— MLB Scoring Changes (@ScoringChanges) April 24, 2026

While Abrams has been subpar at shortstop defensively, the other half of the Nationals’ middle infield, Nasim Nunez, has shone defensively, with his 3 Outs Above Average ranking in the 95th percentile in all of baseball. Nunez has struggled offensively in 2026, providing most of his value in the little things, such as bunting and baserunning, but his defensive prowess makes him a valuable ballplayer regardless.

With Abrams lack of defensive success at shortstop and Nunez, a natural shortstop, thriving at second base, it’s fair to question why the Nationals don’t just flip the two defensively. Nunez would easily be the best defensive shortstop the Nats have had since Trea Turner, and his offensive shortcomings would be more tolerable because he’s defending so well at one of the most important positions on the field.

Moving Abrams off shortstop sooner than later makes sense for the Nats long term with the abundance of shortstops they have coming up through the minor league system, including but not limited to Eli Willits, Ronny Cruz, and Seaver King.

King is the closest of that group to reaching the big leagues, currently going scorched earth to Double-A pitching, and he is well-regarded for his smooth actions at shortstop with a strong arm to go with it. Willits is a few years away from debuting in the majors, but he is already standing out at Low A for his defensive abilities.

Moving CJ Abrams to second base also slightly cheapens up a possible extension for him, as the going rate for second basemen is lower than for shortstops in the league. Problems could arise if Abrams uses his claim to shortstop in negotiations, saying he won’t sign an extension if he’s moved off his position, but after years of poor defensive play at short, Abrams doesn’t deserve to have his claim to the position completely unchallenged.

Series Preview

Iowa Hawkeyes (29-18, 12-12 B1G) at #25 Nebraska Cornhuskers (34-14, 17-7 B1G)

Location: Hawks Field at Haymarket Park, Lincoln, NE

Dates: May 8th-10th

Times (all CDT): Friday @ 6pm , Saturday @ 2pm, Sunday @ 2pm

Coaches: Rick Heller (13th season, 785-602-2) & Will Bolt (7th season, 204-140-1)

TV/Stream: Friday is on Nebraska Public Media, Sunday will be on BTN, All games on B1G+

Radio: All Nebraska games on Huskers Radio Network, Huskers.com, Huskers App

Graduation weekend slate. 🎓 pic.twitter.com/9ckl5RQCsv

— Nebraska Baseball (@HuskerBaseball) May 4, 2026

Well, where have we seen a talented but dazed Husker team take on a “mid” Iowa team before? It’s a nightmare we’ve seen time and time agains in seemingly every sport. After having a lot of “luck” metrics go their way for the entire season, the Huskers seemingly had every break go against them in Columbus last week. So far, a return home has righted the ship in a big way after some struggles away from home. Will the final few (regular season, fingers crossed) home games give them their mojo back? (Shout out, Mojo Hagge!)

Iowa has piled up wins by beating up on the weak sisters of the poor, with the 222nd ranked non-conference schedule. They are not as good as their overall record (which still isn’t great) might make you think. In conference, they’ve been swept by the 2 California teams, and lost to Michigan State. They’ve beaten bottom feeders Maryland, Indiana and Penn State, but have also won series against Minnesota and most recently Illinois.

Barring being swept by Nebraska and then Purdue, Iowa should be in the group that that plays in Omaha for the right to play in the final tournament against the top 4 seeds. I wouldn’t get too attached to that “sweep” thought though. Things rarely go as planned when the Hawkeyes come to town.

Pitching Preview

Weekend rotation is locked. 🔒 pic.twitter.com/oGa2W4lp6P

— Nebraska Baseball (@HuskerBaseball) May 7, 2026

Game 1: RHP Carson Jasa (8-2, 3.68 ERA) vs. RHP Tyler Guerin (2-2, 6.80 ERA)

Game 2: RHP Ty Horn (2-2, 4.06 ERA) vs. RHP Maddux Frese (4-2, 2.56 ERA)

Game 3: RHP Gavin Blachowicz (4-2, 3.08 ERA) vs. TBD

Coach Bolt and Co. have found their Friday night starter in Carson Jasa. They were protecting him in a way earlier in the year, putting him in a slightly less stressful day in Saturday, usually battling a less superior pitcher on the other team. Now he is “The Man”, and despite picking up the loss, he pitched very well. One ball just trickling out of Case Sanderson’s glove on a tough play was maybe the difference in the game. Going more than 6 innings has to be a goal going forward.

Welcome back to the rotation Ty Horn. He has rediscovered that little bit extra of his fastball that he was without for his last few Friday starts. That along with the confidence/attitude readjustment, and the giving his all on every pitch instead of worrying about going through an order a third time unlocked the Ty we saw at the end of 2025. Bolt said with only one mid week game left, Ty affecting multiple games a week wouldn’t be as important, so made the decision to replace the suddenly struggling Katskee easier.

Bolt also said he thought Gavin Blachowicz just fit better on Sundays when deciding where to place Horn. Blachowicz suffered from a couple bad breaks, especially the 3 RBI triple that Drew Grego just couldn’t quite get ahold of. Even-so, Blachowicz has been the most even keeled starter, even without his best stuff, so expect Championship Sundays to get back on track.

Iowa has been searching for a starting rotation all season. They’ve finally arrived back where they started on Friday nights with Tyler Guerin. The 6’6” righty had a bad start to the season, then regrouped mostly in the bullpen before starting the past 3 weekends. He doesn’t go long, rarely getting to 70 pitches, and is very prone to walking pitchers. Iowa has a lot of relievers it trusts, so the leash isn’t long for its starters.

Maddux Frese has been a revelation over then last month for the Hawkeyes. Not only is he pitching effective, allowing 2 runs or less in 4 of his last 5 starts, but he is going deep into games, with quality starts in each of those 4 games as well. He’s not a big strikeout guy, in fact he gets most of his outs via fly balls. That can be an adventure, depending on the wind at Haymarket Park. Logan Runde has been the third pitcher for the team over the entire year, but has struggled of late, so the team is considering a couple other options, depending on how the series goes for Sunday.

Scouting Report

This weekend will be a battle between the top 2 hitting teams in the conference. Last week Nebraska was #1 and Iowa was #2, but as you can imagine after Columbus, the two have flipped. It’s a rare Iowa team in that the offense carries the pitching staff. Probably been 2019 since that happened.

The best hitter on the Hawkeyes is easily in the mix of top 5 batters in the conference depending on the criteria. That is second baseman Gable Mitchell, who thankfully is finally a senior. He has taken the conference lead in hits and batting average away from Mac Moyer after last week. He has 75 hits, and is batting .393. At 5’9, 185 lbs, he’s not a big home run threat with 5 on the year, but can pile up doubles, with 14 on the year, and a B1G leading 4 triples as well. He will run on occasion, stealing 11 of 15 bases.

Caleb Wolf is almost a Mitchell clone. The diminutive first baseman is the same size as Mitchell and second on the team in batting average at .370. Wolf also has 12 doubles and 3 home runs.

In fact, the whole team has a similar stat line of piling up singles and doubles, and not really worrying about home run power. The team leader in home runs has only 6, and that is short stop and usual leadoff man Kooper Schulte. Schulte also leads the team with 17 doubles on the season while batting .286.

Iowa likes to run, stealing the second most bases in the Big Ten to Minnesota at 85. Outfielder Kellen Strohmeyer leads the team, going 17 for 17 on the season.

Iowa has numerous arms they turn to during a weekend, with 7 pitchers having over 12 appearances out of the pen on the season so far. Their most trusted arm is do everything reliever Kyle Alivo. He is tied for the team lead with 3 saves, and has thrown 38 innings in mostly relief. That includes a big time outing in his last appearance, going for 5 innings with 8 strikeouts Saturday against Illinois.

Career night for Kyle.

5 IP // 4 H 1 R 3 BB 8 K pic.twitter.com/NtfKcxuPuw

— Iowa Baseball (@UIBaseball) May 2, 2026

Freshman lefty Brolan Frost leads the pen with a 2.94 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He has made 15 appearances, for 18.1 innings. He’s been used a lot more recently, throwing an inning in one game against Illinois and then coming in for a single left handed batter in another. Expect to see something similar this weekend.

Grad transfer Joe Husak leads the team in appearances with 19 on the season. He has a 5.19 ERA and has struck out 23 batters in 26 innings of work. He should be in multiple games against Nebraska if the score is close.

As always, Iowa is an elite defense. They are currently #1 in the B1G and #3 in the country with a 98.5 fielding percentage.

Series History

Iowa leads the all time series 29-26 against Nebraska. In their last meeting, the Hawkeyes won 2 out of 3 in Iowa City last season.

On Deck

• Jeter Worthley has been hit by 18 pitches this season, tied for 9th most in a season in Husker history. He is 2 behind Riley Silva’s 2025 season for 8th.
• Drew Grego has 38 RBIs on the season, 4th most by a Husker freshman in history. He’s 3 away from Daniel Bruce and 10 behind Alex Gordon.
• With one more hit, Dylan Carey will tie Paul Meyers for 7th all time in hits. He is also only 2 behind Michael Pritchard for 6th place.

Catching a foul ball at an MLB game is a core memory moment, but it can be just as memorable to blow it as spectacularly as this fan did on Thursday afternoon.

This Cleveland Guardians fan didn’t catch the foul ball and spilled his drink all over the woman next to him — and her nachos 😭

Not the double error 💀 pic.twitter.com/k8TBZ4Ixo7

— Netflix Sports (@netflixsports) May 7, 2026

Extending for the bare one-handed catch, this man not only managed to flub the catch, but he spilled his beer all over the woman sitting next to him, notably drenching the ballpark nachos in the process. I’m not going to throw too much shade at the attempted catch, because a jumping one-hander at full extension is rough. I’m not sure many people would have made that grab.

However, I will slam this man for not having situational awareness of his concessions situation. I looked up the prices of food and drink at Progressive Field in Cleveland, and he’s drinking the 25 oz stadium beer, which is $12 for a domestic. I’ll go with the low-end and assume he’s not drinking craft. The loaded nachos, they’re $15. I appears there may also be hot dogs on the tray, but I won’t count there only because there appears to be some roughness to the foil — meaning they may have already been eaten.

If we zoom in on the beer right as he’s about the make the catch we can clearly see how much the man had already consumed, thanks to sunlight shining through the translucent cup.

Therefore, he lost two-thirds of his beer and ruined the nachos trying to make the catch for a financial loss of $23 on the attempt. The embarrassment from flubbing this catch on live TV, well, that’s worth a lot more in emotional damage.

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It's another busy day across the Major Leagues tonight, with a total of 15 games on the schedule.

My MLB player props will feature Dylan Cease, Andy Pages, and Max Fried who I expect to help keep the Yankees rolling in dominant form as their other star arms work their way back to full health.

Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, May 8. 

Best MLB player props today

Dylan Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts (-130)

Dylan Cease has been a strikeout machine this season for the Toronto Blue Jays. He's racked up 56 Ks in just 38.1 innings of work. The right-hander currently ranks fourth in the Majors in punchouts. Cease has cashed the Over just once in his last three outings, but it was against the exact team he'll face tonight — the Los Angeles Angels. 

When Cease took the hill against L.A. a couple of weeks back, he struck out 12 Angels across only five innings of work. The veteran has 42 Ks in only 98 at-bats against the Halos lineup in his career, and L.A. ranks dead last in the bigs in strikeouts with nearly 10 per game. 

• Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SN1

Max Fried Under 1.5 earned runs (+125)

With Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon injured, it's been vital for Max Fried to be dominant this season for the New York Yankees, and he hasn't disappointed. The lefty owns a 4-1 record and 2.39 ERA across eight appearances. He's hit the Under in earned runs allowed in two of his last three starts. 

While Fried did surrender three earned in his most recent outing, the southpaw had back-to-back scoreless starts prior. He's also been practically un-hittable on the road, compiling a 0.76 ERA in five starts, and the  Yankees visit the Milwaukee Brewers this evening. 

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: YES

Andy Pages Over 0.5 singles (-110)

Andy Pages has been a breakout star for the Los Angeles Dodgers this year. He's fifth in the Majors with a .336 average, and the Cuban is also second with 33 RBI. Pages has 46 hits as well, which is top-five. Of those 46 knocks, 30 have been singles, and he's easily cashed the Over in six of his last eight contests. 

Pages was 3-for-5 with three homers on Wednesday, and 3-for-4 the night before that with three base knocks. While he's 0-for-2 lifetime against Chris Sale, he's batting .333 against left-handed pitchers. Sale doesn't give up a lot of homers or extra-base hits, but Pages is hot, and I expect him to at least smack one base hit. 

• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SportsNet LA, BravesVision

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Spencer Jones’ girlfriend, Ava O’Connor, shared a sweet message responding to the 6-foot-7 outfielder getting called up by the Yankees after Jasson Domínguez was injured during Thursday’s game.

“Let’s go baby! The most deserving incredible man. I love you!” O’Connor wrote on her Instagram Story, including the MLB breaking news post and a fire flame emoji and a blue heart.

The Post’s Jon Heyman was the first to report the news Thursday.

Jones, the Yankees’ No. 6 prospect on MLB Pipeline, has 11 homers and a Triple-A leading 41 RBIs to start the season.

The 24-year-old slugger will get his chance at the majors after he struggled with strikeouts in the minors this season, tallying 46 through his first 33 games with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

Jones was called up after Domínguez crashed into the outfield wall while making a catch during the first inning of the 9-2 win over the Texas Rangers on Thursday.

Domínguez, who was filling in for an injured Giancarlo Stanton, was emotional as he left the game on a cart.

An MRI revealed a sprain in the AC joint in his left shoulder, sending him to the injured list.

Yankees manager Aaron Boone cited consistent at-bats recently when asked about Jones after Thursday’s game.

“Feel like the last three, four weeks, been having a lot of consistent at-bats,” Boone said. “The power’s been there. Less swing and miss. … The signs have been encouraging.”

Jones will suit up Friday for the start of the Yankees’ three-game series against the Brewers in Milwaukee.