Category: Baseball

Henry Bolte might have been the MVP of the A’s 2026 camp and even though he was optioned before the end of spring training he has put himself squarely on the map for an early call up whenever there is a need in the outfield. I sat down with Bolte on Saturday, March 14th, to discuss his approach, his progress, his personality, and what he thinks of Cindi. Unfortunately, we ran out of time just before we got to the Cindi part but enjoy the rest.

Nico: My understanding is it’s Henry BOL-tay.

Bolte: That’s right.

Nico: So I’m going to get that right and earn brownie points. K, first question…the reputation that you came with as a minor leaguer was that you were very cerebral and that maybe sometimes you out thought yourself or got in your own head, that’s what we heard a couple of years ago. I’m curious what your assessment is. Was that accurate or who are you as a person trying to become a hitter?

Bolte: Yeah, I think there’s definitely a mental aspect to it. You know, sometimes it can be too too much. I always joke sometimes the simpler or more stupid in a sense you can be at the plate — not actually but the more simple you can make it at the plate a lot of the times you can have a little more success or it becomes a little bit easier simplifying things .

So I think yeah that’s that’s something to balance: you want to have a good approach, being be informed going up to the plate with what you’re dealing with, but then at the end of the day you got to go compete. It’s kind of a battle at the plate every time, so you want to make sure that that’s the main focus.

Nico: So before we get more into the baseball, let’s continue on with the person. I would love to know who you are, who you were as a kid. Obviously, any wacky stories are appreciated, but just like, what is your personality and what is it that you bring to hitting and defense?

Bolte: I kind of did a little bit of everything when I was younger in terms of sports (but) baseball stuck for me as the main sport. I played seriously, like high school and then even middle school. But when I was younger, I was trying to do a little bit of everything. My parents were super supportive of getting me out and trying different stuff, do whatever, play different sports, be active.

And so in that I was always competing with my friends, my brother, whatever it was, being competitive. So that’s something I think I’ve carried out through my life. It’s just become part of my life. me so it’s something that I bring to the field, and yeah I think that’s that’s something from being a young kid just trying everything. It’s kind of shaped me a little bit for who I am now.

Nico: Older brother?

Bolte: Yes yeah.

Nico: So were you often playing with older kids?

Bolte: Not a ton but like maybe stuff around the house with him. I had my own age friends and there was a good friend group that I kind of went through and played as a young kid all these sports with. So not too much, but here and there, yeah.

Nico: So the reason I ask is that as a professional that’s pretty much been your lot, which is you are always competing against guys who are older, because you were drafted out of high school. What has that been like in terms of your confidence, in terms of your growth?

Bolte: I think it’s an adjustment, you know, it’s an adjustment for anyone coming into professional baseball, purely just off of how many games you play, the day-to-day is much different than certainly high school, college, I would imagine the same. But yeah, it’s an adjustment. It’s maybe a little bit more of a shock or a ‘sink or swim’ thing for a high school kid at least.

You kind of have to get in and it’s just the reality that you’re playing against older kids now for a little while and so it’s something to just figure out. And so I think it helps you grow, anytime you’re around players who are better than you. You know, it’s that way in baseball and in life. You want to be around people who are at the level you want to be at, and it’ll kind of push you to be better. So I think it’s always a good thing.

Nico: Now coming into this spring training, you’ve always had pretty much the same strength and weakness profile, which is really toolsy, exciting prospect, strikes out too much. And what I wanted to know is from a more personal point of view, it can’t feel good to have a high K -rate when that’s what you’re working on, and you’re making adjustments. And it has improved every year, but it’s always been that. dark cloud hanging over. What has that been like for you, just on a personal level?

Bolte: You always want to be a well-rounded player, so anything that you have that’s an area for improvement you want to work on. That’s a funny one because I think it can be a thing that works against you to focus too much on it. So there are times where trying to cut down on swing and miss leads to more. And you want to take at bats with the intention of doing damage and putting up a good at bat. And that’s really the focus.

So that’s been, the last couple of years, the real focus of going into at bats, of just trying to have a quality at bat and win the at bat. And the result will take care of itself. You’ll find that that is the focus. You’ll strike out less. And then not worrying about it. It’s you want — to put the ball in play and make things happen on the field and give yourself a chance. But at the end of the day, sometimes you’re going to strike out and sometimes it can be a product of doing damage. If you look up and there’s guys punching out and putting up good numbers, it’s not as big of a deal.

So I think if you can produce still, you don’t want to want to punch out, but you don’t want to focus on it too much, because if you can go out there and put up a good at bat, produce good things will probably happen. And that number will probably be be down.

Nico: So now you fast forward to spring training. Your stats are starting to look like a misprint. {Bolte was hitting .375/.419/.675, with 3 HR in 40 AB, when he was optioned.} I mean, it’s really amazing the spring you’re having. Has something changed? Has something shifted? Is there something you can point to to say, “Hey, this is why now I’m doing the damage that I’ve been talking about?”

Bolte: No, I think just just keeping that that mentality of going out there and trying to win every at bat and really every pitch individually. You know if you keep that focus, you’re able to turn the page quicker from pitch to pitch, at bat to at bat, and keep a fresh mindset. I’m going up there trying to treat every at that like I’m 0 for 0 on the spring or on the season, you know first at bat, so really just just being in the moment being present and thinking about those things and and what you can control has been huge for me.

Nico: There’s an interesting thing if you look at your Statcast page look at your metrics, and I don’t know how much you look at those things but the only thing that’s in a really low percentile even beyond like ‘swing and miss’ or ‘strikeouts’: in the 1st percentile is ‘pull air’. Like you just don’t hit fly balls to left. I was wondering if you were aware of that — I haven’t had a chance to see you hit very much to to know what is behind that.

Bolte: I mean I think historically, going back to that that thing of trying to figure out some of the context stuff and take good at bats, I’ve always been one to try to let the ball get deep and I can I can work really well to the to the opposite field and have success there. But you do want to pull the ball for sure.

And that’s been a thing I’ve been trying to do: get on time, pull it a little bit more, which this spring has been great. I’ve gotten some balls in the air to the pull side, which have been great. I think last year in Vegas, it was down a lot. Wrist was bugging me. It was hard to kind of swing the way I wanted to, I felt like. So I think that impacted it, at least for those, whatever, 34 games, 35 games I played there.

So it’s been there, but definitely an area to work on. And I think that comes with just being on time. and kind of catching the pitches where I want to. And then that’ll take care of itself.

Nico: It’s interesting because I think, I didn’t see this in the Statcast, but I think you do pull balls on the ground. It’s just interesting. You don’t lift balls that you pull. Do you look at that stuff? Like, is that part of your being cerebral or no?

Bolte: No, I don’t. I don’t see that stuff too much. Honestly, I don’t really have access to it or know where to where to get most of that. But, you know, I’m not I’m not too concerned with where I’m where I’m hitting it or all that. Really just trying to go up there and hit the ball hard. If you can make solid contact, chances are good things will happen. Whether it’s middle of the field, pull, or opposite field, just barreling the ball is really my focus.

Nico: So I talked to Max Muncy around this time last year, and he was not expected to make the team. And we talked about sort of where he saw this season going. Next thing you know, he’s on the opening day roster. So here we sit now. You’ve had a great spring, yhere is a depth chart. We know who the outfielders are. How are you seeing where you stand as far as the season starting and the season progressing?

Bolte: Yeah, I mean I’ve tried not to focus too much on that and really just take it day to day and play. I feel like I’m probably in a similar situation as Muncy was last year: I’m probably not slated to make the team to start, but that’s how it is, not something that I was kind of expecting. I was coming out here to kind of play freely during the spring and just perform and get ready for my season. Because the goal in the long run is to get up (to) the big league team and help them win and be an impact player and be there for good. So just however I can be most prepared to do that is my main focus.

Nico: Well, and we know that the team has a starting right fielder who’s coming back from surgery, has a starting center fielder who’s had trouble staying on the field. So there’s always opportunities that present themselves unexpectedly. Defensively, I’d like to get a sense of how you see yourself as an outfielder comparing left field, center field, right field and what you feel like your strengths and weaknesses are right now.

Bolte: Um, I mean I grew up playing center field when I started playing outfield in high school. So I love playing center field, it was always my favorite. I’ve kind of split time between center and right professionally, so I’ve gotten really comfortable in right field. Comfortable in left field too — I feel good in all three spots, so that’s what’s good, is that I’ve gotten a good mix of all of them. And so, yeah, like you said, wherever there’s an opportunity, being ready in any of those three spots is great. And if the team needs someone in left, center or right, I want to be able to be the guy who can go in and fill that spot.

Nico: So between center and right, say, from which angle do you feel like you get the best reads, best jumps, are the most natural outfielder?

Bolte: I don’t know. I think center field everything’s in front of you. so you know side to side it’s you can get a good read on the ball. Right field comes with a lot of just time playing — you know the ball is going to fade on you a little bit more, there’s a lot of more spin from from right hand hitters which you can you just get used to and then you kind of know what to expect. So I don’t know if there’s one that is more natural. I think I’ve gotten used to both of them and it’s just they’re both different looks.

Nico: Last question would be — it’s really open-ended — if there was one thing you could say to fans who are watching you develop, rooting for the team, rooting for you, what would it be?

Bolte: You know, just that I want to come in and be an impact player and kind of this whole process with myself and the staff here has been preparing to win at the big league level and show up and be able to have success at the big league level and stay there.

I mean, I think that’s the main thing. You want to get up there and then stay and have an impact and help the team win. So I think when that time comes, I’ll be ready to go out there and play hard every night. Like we just said, it’s a thing of mine to compete every night and kind of put some pressure on the defense, take an extra 90 feet, run the base as well, and do something little every day to try and help the team win.

It’s looking like sooner rather than later for Bolte, who will start the season at AAA waiting for opportunity to knock…Hope you enjoyed the 5 interviews!

With the season looming and the parade of bad news from Spring Training (despite the Braves being 2026 Spring Training champions, heh), I wanted to throw this out there as a question that you, ultimately, will be scored and evaluated on. Chances are, you have strong opinions on this topic; here’s your chance to get something (or not) for your convictions.

The Braves currently project to have MLB’s tenth-most productive rotation. This is based on a lot of very good Chris Sale, three-fourths-of-the-season’s worth of above-average Spencer Strider, an effective Reynaldo Lopez that basically hangs around for four months, a good second-half-ish from Spencer Schwellenbach, among the other guys doing some stuff (Grant Holmes, Bryce Elder, Hurston Waldrep). That said, the tenor of pretty much all conversation regarding the Braves and their rotation is highly negative, more akin to “Will the rotation injuries cut off a comeback attempt before it even begins?” than anything else.

Of course, a rotation does not a team make. While no team can do this for a whole season, I’m reminded of the silliness of June 2023, where the Braves had something like the worst rotation production in MLB (second-worst FIP- ahead of only the Rockies), but went 21-4 because they just obliterated other teams even more soundly than their own Jared Shusters were getting wrecked. So, without mincing words too much, the following outcomes are possible:

A. The rotation is good

For purposes of discussion, let’s say “good” is tenth or better in MLB in fWAR when it’s all said and done. The variants here are:

• A1: The rotation is good, and the Braves make the playoffs.
• A2: The rotation is good, but the Braves miss the playoffs (probably due to offensive deficiency, but could also be due to weird one-run game stuff, or poor defense, or a disastrous bullpen).

Note that for this variant, and the ones below, health is automatically baked in to rotation quality, as more injuries will lead to the Braves plumbing the depth chart even further, and presumably getting less fWAR for their efforts when doing so.

B. The rotation is meh

Let’s say “meh” is somewhere between 11th and 20th in MLB in fWAR. Let’s also expand the variants a bit:

• B1: The rotation is meh, the Braves make the playoffs, and the fWAR differential between the Braves’ rotation fWAR and the tenth-ranked team’s fWAR would have any implications for playoff rounds (i.e., the Braves would have a top-two record in the NL with added fWAR up to the tenth-best rotation).
• B2: The rotation is meh, the Braves make the playoffs, and the fWAR differential noted above would not have any implications for playoff rounds.
• B3: The rotation is meh, the Braves miss the playoffs, but would’ve made the playoffs if they had extra wins equal to the fWAR differential between their rotation and the tenth-ranked rotation.
• B4: The rotation is meh, the Braves miss the playoffs, and would not have made the playoffs if they had extra wins equal to the fWAR differential between their rotation and the tenth-ranked rotation.

Which of course, leaves us with…

C. The rotation is bad

Same deal here as for the category above. “Bad” is, of course, what’s left: a bottom ten performance by fWAR.

• C1: The rotation is bad, the Braves make the playoffs, and the fWAR differential between the Braves’ rotation fWAR and the tenth-ranked team’s fWAR would have any implications for playoff rounds (i.e., the Braves would have a top-two record in the NL with added fWAR up to the tenth-best rotation). This is the June 2023 option.
• C2: The rotation is bad, the Braves make the playoffs, and the fWAR differential noted above would not have any implications for playoff rounds.
• C3: The rotation is bad, the Braves miss the playoffs, but would’ve made the playoffs if they had extra wins equal to the fWAR differential between their rotation and the tenth-ranked rotation.
• C4: The rotation is bad, the Braves miss the playoffs, and would not have made the playoffs if they had extra wins equal to the fWAR differential between their rotation and the tenth-ranked rotation.

Basically, I’m asking you to first pick your prognostication for the rotation (category/letter), and then select the implication of that prognostication, if any, for the standings at the end of the season (subcategory/number).

And, as all of these, let’s see some confidence attestations, too. Pair your selection of one of the ten variants above with a confidence number from 1 to 5, where 5 is “I am sure this will happen” and 1 is “I have no idea whatsoever what will happen but picked something to participate.” No partial confidences, a whole number that is 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 only.

Anyway, have at it. I’m curious to see where this ends up.

This is gonna be a long one. I decided to go ahead and basically write up the equivalent of Spark Notes to what each team did this offseason (including only the notable players lost or added), to what (in my opinion) is the biggest catalyst for that team’s success, and who (where applicable) the notable prospects are for each team that could crack the big leagues this year.

For what it’s worth, in the X-Factor sections, I tried not to choose the obvious players (i.e. Judge for the Yankees, Witt for the Royals, Jose for the Guardians, Ohtani for the Dodgers). For some teams, I did choose their best (at least offensively) player, but with a caveat. The order of the teams is not based on my predictions, but on their finish in the standings last year. Anyway, I hope you enjoy!

American League East

Toronto Blue Jays

Additions: Dylan Cease, Kazuma Okamoto, Tyler Rogers

Subtractions: Bo Bichette, Chris Bassitt

X-Factor: Dylan Cease

Close Prospects: RHP Trey Yesavage

Yesavage, indeed, still technically retains prospect status. What catapaulted the Blue Jays to (and through) the postseason last year was their offense. Almost every hitter in their lineup had a career year, and they had one of the best offenses in MLB as a result. Their pitching was… not great. Yesavage and Bieber were crucial for them in the playoffs. Both are not on the Opening Day roster (Yesavage because of a combination of an injury and a whopping total of innings pitched, Bieber because of an injury). Anthony Santander is also on the IL to start the year. He tore his labrum in February, and will miss a significant chunk of the season. Despite this, I still think the Blue Jays are in a great position to re-capture ther AL East this season. Their offense, despite perhaps some inevitable regression, should still be elite. They added one of the most talented pitchers in MLB to their staff in Cease, and with the correct coaching, he is someone who very well could end the year in the Cy Young race. Okamoto projects to be both a great hitter and fielder, which is something they missed at third base last year. They are still one of the best teams in the American League.

New York Yankees

Additions: Ryan Weathers, Randal Grichuk

Subtractions: Devin Williams, Luke Weaver

X-Factor: Bullpen additions from last year’s trade deadline

Close Prospects: RHP Elmer Rodriguez, RHP Carlos Lagrange

The Yankees didn’t really do much externally this offseason. They re-signed Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham, and Paul Goldschmidt, but seem largely content with running back their roster from last year. I’m not necessarily saying that’s a bad thing, just a surprising one given the activity of the other teams in their division. Ryan Weathers, despite surface level stats, projects to be a very good pitcher. Their rotation, if Gerrit Cole looks as good as he did in Spring Training, could very well be the best rotation in MLB. Fried, Cole, Schlittler, Rodon, Weathers, is an extremely formidable rotation with little to no weaknesses, assuming Yankees pitching coach (and former Guardians coach) Matt Blake can unlock Weathers’ potential. Rodon will be on the IL to start the season, along with Anthony Volpe, Gerrit Cole, and Clarke Schmidt (who will miss most of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in July). Schlittler looks to have tweaked his arsenal in the offseason, and projects to be one of the better young starters in the AL. But, the bullpen. It was downright awful last year, even more surprisingly so after the deadline. As a refresher, the Yankees went out and acquired David Bednar, Camilo Doval, and Jake Bird at last year’s deadline. Their bullpen was 26th in ERA after the deadline. That is the key to their success. Obviously, the lazy answer would be Judge. Which, I guess, is true. If he spontaneously turns into a lemon this season, that wouldn’t necessarily bode well for their World Series aspirations. But, I’m assuming that doesn’t happen. Their bullpen needs to be better, especially given the strength of their rotation. If the bullpen picks itself up, this pitching staff is most likely the best in baseball. Combine that with a lineup led by arguably the best hitter of the 21st century? Well, sounds like a championship roster to me.

Boston Red Sox

Additions: Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, Ranger Suarez, Caleb Durbin

Subtractions: Alex Bregman, Steven Matz

X-Factor: Roman Anthony

Close Prospects: 3B Marcelo Mayer, LHP Payton Tolle, LHP Connelly Early

The Red Sox were extremely active this offseason, going out and trading for Contreras, Gray, and Durbin and signing Ranger Suarez. With Suarez, he did have a relatively significant fastball velocity drop in his last start in Spring Training, which is almost certainly something to watch. One of the bigger concerns with him as a free agent was his declining fastball velocity. Alas, their rotation is good enough to overcome some regression from him. Their bullpen looks to be formidable again this year, even taking into account some natural regression from Aroldis Chapman. Their lineup is really good, and Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Caleb Durbin, and Ceddanne Rafaela are all Gold Glove-caliber fielders. But, this lineup’s ceiling is based on Roman Anthony. He is their best hitter, and will decide how far this team can go in October. If he looks as good as he did in his stint in MLB last year, the sky’s the limit for the Red Sox.

Tampa Bay Rays

Additions: Cedric Mullins, Gavin Lux, Steven Matz, Nick Martinez

Subtractions: Shane Baz, Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe

X-Factor: Junior Caminero

Close Prospects: SS Carson Williams, RHP Brody Hopkins, 1B Xavier Isaac

I find it hard to see the Rays being successful this year. Even in a vaccuum, I just don’t see any facet of this team being good enough to compete. The lineup is fine, but shallow. The rotation is interesting, but mainly because it’s the Rays. By the way, Ryan Pepiot just landed on the IL. The bullpen, like the rotation, is interesting, but really only because it’s the Rays. They definitely have talented arms in both the rotation and bullpen, but I’m just not sure if either are deep enough for a 162-game season. Outside of this hypothetical vacuum, they play in the most competitive division in baseball, where all 4 teams got better than them this offseason. Don’t get me wrong, Junior Caminero is very, very good. But, he can only do so much. The Rays’ 1-3 against RHP is still very good (Diaz, Aranda, Caminero), but I just don’t think the rest of the lineup is good enough. But, they are the Rays, so they may shock us all and find a way to competitiveness.

Baltimore Orioles

Additions: Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, Chris Bassitt, Shane Baz, Ryan Helsley

Subtractions: Grayson Rodriguez, Tomoyuki Sugano

X-Factor: Trevor Rogers

Close Prospects: C Samuel Basallo, RHP Trey Gibson

The Orioles were definitely one of the more interesting teams to watch going into this offseason, and then they added Pete Alonso. Despite having a very, very poor 2025 campaign (which led to the firing of their manager), I think the Orioles are poised to compete once again in this division. Their pitching is really the limit. Because of how insane this division is, I’m not sure if I see them finishing higher than 3rd. Trevor Rogers was really good last year, but not for a full season. If he can maintain his performance from 2025, that would go a long way in helping the Orioles surpass expectations. They traded for SP Shane Baz from the Rays, and signed Chris Bassitt to bolster their rotation. Kyle Bradish and Zach Eflin round out a solid rotation, but I’m not sure, at least on paper, if it’s better than any the Blue Jays, Yankees, or Red Sox rotations. Their offense, on paper, is almost assuredly as good as anyone’s. Gunnar Henderson looks poised to bounceback to his former MVP-candidate form, and if that happens, this could be an electric offense to watch. Samuel Basallo has looked fantastic in Spring Training, and is coming off signing a long extension with the team. Their bullpen is a little iffy, especially considering their all-world closer Felix Bautista will miss some of the season, but as long as it’s not meaningfully worse than last season’s, it should be fine. I do think they’ll be active at the deadline in acquiring relievers.

Overall, the AL East once again looks to be the most formidable division in baseball, and very well could see three of its teams reach the postseason again.

American League Central

Cleveland Guardians

Additions: Rhys Hoskins, Shawn Armstrong

Subtractions: Lane Thomas

X-Factor: Steven Kwan

Close Prospects: OF Chase DeLauter, RHP Khal Stephen, 2B Travis Bazzana, LHP Parker Messick

I’m going to keep this write-up brief since I know all of you know what the Guardians did this offseason. Jose Ramirez is still one of the best players in baseball. They have a multitude of exciting young players either coming up this season, or looking to continue off an exciting rookie campaign in 2025. Parker Messick, Slade Cecconi, Kyle Manzardo, George Valera, Joey Cantillo. Chase DeLauter has (officially) made the Opening Day roster, and looks to immediately jumpstart what was a, to put it nicely, lackluster offense last year. While Valera will start the year on the IL, the Guardians look to have just enough depth to withstand missing his offensive presence for a little. I really think the ceiling of this team (outside of Jose) comes down to whether Steven Kwan can re-capture his 2024 form. He needs to be an elite table-setter, and needs to be able to play at least an average centerfield. Even outside of what that means to the team, if he can post an OPS around .800 and play a good centerfield, he very well could fetch the Guardians a haul at the deadline. Recent reporting seems to show that the Guardians have not approached Kwan’s team with any serious contract extension outline, and given the Guardians’ track record, Kwan looks to almost inevitably be dealt at the deadline. If he plays well, he’s gone. Depressing to write, but probably true. This team is much better than it was last year, and its Opening Day roster could very well be as good as it’s ever been since 2017. In what again looks to be a wide open division, I wouldn’t count the Guardians out.

Detroit Tigers

Additions: Framber Valdez, Kenley Jansen, Justin Verlander

Subtractions: Chris Paddack

X-Factor: Kevin McGonigle

Close Prospects: SS Kevin McGonigle, OF Max Clark

The Tigers would’ve run away with the division last year had they not suffered one of the most embarrassing collapses in MLB history. They completely fell apart in the second half of the season after lighting the league on fire in the first half. In what is most likely the last full year (or, just as likely, half-year) of Tarik Skubal, the Tigers had an interesting offseason. They went out and signed arguably the best starting pitcher on the market which, if you ask me, all but sounds the death knell for any hopes Tigers fans may have for a Skubal extension. So much of the Tigers’ season rests on how good they can be leading up to the trade deadline. If they are hovering around .500, I could very well see their front office dealing Skubal. They have one of the best farm systems in MLB, and could make it even better. Skubal will be Skubal, if healthy, there’s no debate there. He’s the best pitcher in the American League, and arguably the best pitcher in MLB. The Tigers’ fortunes boil down to how good their offense can be. They made no external additions to the offense, only re-signing Gleyber Torres. But, they’re adding one of the best (if not the best) prospects in baseball to their lineup. If McGonigle is as good as advertised, there is no limit for this Tigers roster. If the Tigers are atop the division at the trade deadline, I highly doubt the Tigers move Skubal. That’s why he’s my X-Factor. Riley Greene is a great hitter, but, at least at present, not good enough to carry this team to a World Series. If McGonigle is as advertised, he can almost certainly do that. A lot of pressure to put on a rookie. Their pitching staff will be better than it was last year — adding Framber Valdez tends to have that effect. This team has the talent to make a run, we’ll see if they do. For a more in-depth look into the Tigers, please read CTC’s own Matt Seese’s article on them here.

Kansas City Royals

Additions: Matt Strahm, Isaac Collins, Lane Thomas

Subtractions: Mike Yaztrezemski, Michael Lorenzen

X-Factor: The other, non-Bobby Witt, 8 hitters in their lineup

Close Prospects: C Carter Jensen

Yes, it is obvious that their offense is the limit to what this team can do. But there really isn’t much else to say. Bobby Witt is the best shortstop in the world, and could very well win MVP this year. Their offense was bad last year. It needs to be better. Their pitching is still very, very good. The offense is the limit. If Maikel Garcia maintains his 2025 form, if Caglianone can make it click, if Carter Jensen is as good as advertised, and if Isaac Collins can maintain some degree of his 2025 self, this team is good. A lot of ifs, I know. Their rotation looks to be very good again, bolstered by (in my opinion) one of the best left-handed starters in baseball in Cole Ragans. Seth Lugo is a question mark, but Kris Bubic, Noah Cameron, and Michael Wacha all project to be above-average starters this year. Their bullpen is, well, not great. Their backend depth is good, but nothing else is. Estevez looks to have taken a step back. (To read more about the Royals, feel free to read my own article on them here.) But, this team looks to be competitive this year. Like with the Guardians: in this division, anything can happen.

Minnesota Twins

Additions: Josh Bell, Victor Caratini

Subtractions: Edouard Julien, Christian Vazquez

X-Factor: A healthy Byron Buxton

Close Prospects: OF Walker Jenkins, OF Emmanuel Rodriguez, LHP Connor Prielipp

I don’t see it with this team, to be honest with you. But, like I’ve already said, this division is weird. Anything could happen. The Twins have been one of the more interesting teams to watch over the last 12 months, as they spontaneously tore their entire roster down at last year’s deadline. Pablo Lopez will miss the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. But, deadline additions SP Mick Abel and Taj Bradley could very well bolster the rotation in Lopez’s place. This team is weird. I could see them winning anywhere between 60 and 84 games. Like every American League Central team, the Twins’ fortunes rest on a whole lot of ‘ifs’. If Buxton can stay healthy and maintain his MVP-level play from 2025, if Rodriguez, Keaschall, Abel, and Bradley can all be significant contributors, then this team could be good. I think its more likely they finish in last than make the playoffs, but anything is possible in the AL Central.

Chicago White Sox

Additions: Munetaki Murakami, Austin Hays, Luisangel Acuna, Seranthony Dominguez

Subtractions: Luis Robert Jr., Mike Tauchman

X-Factor: Colson Montgomery

Close Prospects: LHP Noah Schultz

The White Sox seem to be out of the proverbial woods. After a short but excruciating rebuild, they have a roster teeming with exciting young talent. I don’t think this team is a playoff team yet, but they will be soon. They could maybe be a fringe Wild Card contender this season if things click, but there’s too many ifs for me to comfortably project them to be that. Murakami is a question mark, but if he works out this lineup will be very deep. Catcher Kyle Teel will miss the start of the season with a shoulder injury sustained from the World Baseball Classic. However, the rotation, frankly, isn’t very good, and neither is the bullpen. Shane Smith is fine, but there really isn’t anything else to hang your hat on for five-six innings in a given night as Anthony Kay, Davis Martin, Sean Burke, and Erick Fedde are an underwhelming group of pitchers. The bullpen, if Grant Taylor clicks, could be fine, at least at the back. They added Seranthony Dominguez there, as well. I just don’t think this pitching staff has either the depth nor the top-end talent to make it formidable enough to compete. For more, please read CTC’s Deborah Williams’ preview on the White Sox here.

American League West

Seattle Mariners

Additions: Brendan Donovan

Subtractions: Jorge Polanco, Eugenio Suarez

X-Factor: George Kirby

Close Prospects: SS Colt Emerson

It’s hard to not envision this team repeating as American League West champions in 2026. While they didn’t do much on balance this offseason, no one else in the division really did either. They’re still by far the most talented team in the division, and even if Cal Raleigh doesn’t hit 60 homers again in 2026, they should still — comfortably — win the division. Their offense is good 1-7, and their rotation is good, albeit a little lacking in depth (Bryce Miller will miss the start of the season with an injury from Spring Training). Their most exciting pitching prospects are still in A-ball, and outside of them there really aren’t any guys to get excited about in the upper minors. Because of that, the success of this team really comes down to how healthy their rotation can be. George Kirby is my X-Factor for them. If Kirby is as good as he was in 2024, this team could very easily win it all. The bullpen is still good, as Matt Brash and Andres Munoz are as good of a setup-closer duo as exists in MLB. There’s really not much else to say. This team is really good.

Houston Astros

Additions: Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows

Subtractions: Framber Valdez, Jesus Sanchez, Vic Caratini

X-Factor: A healthy Yordan Alvarez

Close Prospects: N/A

The Astros are weird. Hunter Brown is good, Tatsuya Imai could be good, Mike Burrows could be good, but other than that, nothing to write home about. Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. (?) are neither exciting or good. We’ll see how that rotation shapes out. The bullpen is still really good with Bryan Abreu, Bryan King, and Steven Okert leading the way. Josh Hader will, however, miss the start of the season with bicep inflammation. The offense will, with a healthy Yordan, be really good next year, despite Jeremy Pena missing the start of the season on the IL. If Correa bounces back, this offense could be good enough to offset the woes of the rotation. Altuve, Paredes, Alvarez, Correa, Pena is a really good 1-5, and if Walker bounces back, could be one of the deeper lineups in the American League. I don’t think they can win the division (barring some epic collapse or implosion from the Mariners), but they could perhaps make the last Wild Card spot.

Texas Rangers

Additions: Brandon Nimmo, MacKenzie Gore

Subtractions: Merrill Kelly, Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia

X-Factor: Healthy Corey Seager

Close Prospects: N/A

The Rangers have one of the loftier ceilings, especially compared to the depths of their floor, in the American League. All of their outcomes come down to how healthy this team can stay. Seager, Langford, Carter, Eovaldi, and DeGrom all have to stay healthy for this team to be good. MacKenzie Gore needs to figure out his 2nd half struggles, and Jack Leiter needs to have a bounceback this season. The bullpen is bad, but like all bullpens, it can relatively easily be fixed at the deadline if necessary. Like I said, high ceiling, low floor. If Langford and Carter reach their prospect status, then this offense could be really good.

Athletics

Additions: Jeff McNeil, Aaron Civale

Subtractions: Sean Newcomb

X-Factor: Pitching

Close Prospects: OF Henry Bolte, RHP Mason Barnett

The Athletics will inevitably be one of the best offenses in MLB, again, this season. Their lineup is loaded. Kurtz, Langeliers, Soderestrom, Rooker, Wilson, Butler, is an insane amalgamation of hitting talent to be on one roster. My problem with them is twofold: their pitching, and the ballpark they play in. Their pitching will probably be bad again, but it certainly doesn’t help that they play in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball (though that almost certainly helps their offense as well). I can’t really see this team making the playoffs until they 1) get real starters in their rotation and 2) move to a real ballpark. The ballpark effects them far more than in just the on-field way. It’s hard to attract free agent pitchers when your pitching conditions are understood to be as dangerous as they are. Oh, also, their bullpen is, on paper, horrible. The pitching is the X-Factor for this team, but unless they take some miraculous leap, I can’t see this team making the playoffs.

Los Angeles Angels

Additions: Grayson Rodriguez, Josh Lowe

Subtractions: Taylor Ward, Luis Rengifo

X-Factor: Development

Close Prospects: RHP Ryan Johnson, RHP George Klassen

So, the Angels. Their problem this year is the same as it’s been for the last 10 years, and the same problem it’ll be for the next 10 years if there isn’t significant change at the upper echelons of their front office: The Angels cannot sustainably develop players. They’ve basically wasted the entirety of a first ballot Hall of Famer’s career, and tried to waste the entirety of another one’s. Despite some development success with Zach Neto, they’ve largely failed to consistently churn out productive MLB players on either side of the ball. They’re known for rushing prospects long before they’re ready, which you’ll see this year with Ryan Johnson. There isn’t much else to say about them until owner Arte Moreno sells.

National League East

Philadelphia Phillies

Additions: Adolis Garcia, Brad Keller

Subtractions: Ranger Suarez, Harrison Bader, Matt Strahm

X-Factor: Bullpen

Close Prospects: OF Justin Crawford, RHP Andrew Painter, SS Aidan Miller

The Phillies are polarizing, and I’m definitely lower on them then most people. Their core pieces (Wheeler, Harper, Schwarber, and Turner) are all on the wrong side of 30. I think that their window of legitimate World Series contention has, at best, one or two years left. Harper is showing signs of regressing, and Wheeler just had a major injury that sidelined him for the entirety of their playoff run last year. Cristopher Sanchez is great, however, and they just extended him. I just don’t see how this team gets better as their core offensive pieces get older. Regardless, their rotation looks to again be among the best in the league when Wheeler returns. Sanchez, Luzardo, and Painter all project to be great frontline starters. Nola and Taijuan Walker are concerning, but one (probably Walker) will go when Wheeler returns. Their bullpen is fine, and I can’t imagine it being worse than it was the last two years. Duran is a fantastic closer, and Keller (assuming they keep him as a reliever) should be great again. Alvarado hopefully doesn’t miss a major portion of the season this year, which will definitely help their bullpen’s fortunes. I have some concerns about the backend, but that’s relatively easily fixed. I don’t necessarily think this team wins the division this year, but they’ll be competitive. And, in a relatively weak National League (outside of the Dodgers), could very easily make the playoffs again.

New York Mets

Additions: Bo Bichette, Freddy Peralta, Luis Robert Jr., Marcus Semien, Devin Williams, Luke Weaver

Subtractions: Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Diaz

X-Factor: Nolan McLean

Close Prospects: RHP Nolan McLean, OF Carson Benge, RHP Jonah Tong, UTIL Ryan Clifford

The Mets perhaps had the most turnover between last and this season among major contributors, as you can see. It’s interesting to see, as they were certainly good on paper last year, but collapsed in the second half. Barring a repeat of that, the Mets should relatively comfortably win the National League East. The X-Factor, for them, is McLean. If he is as advertised — that is, as an ace — then this team is as good as any. Their rotation was really bad last year, and I can’t imagine it being worse. Peralta, McLean, Holmes, Senga, and Peterson is a fantastic Opening Day rotation, and Jonah Tong offers great depth. Their bullpen is a little iffy, again, but it’s hard to actually view how their bullpen really was last year simply because of how much they had to pitch (3rd most in MLB, 2nd in NL). Devin Williams is an enigma because of what happened to him last year, but I assume he bounces back. Luke Weaver I’m not as high on, but he should still be an average middle-relief contributor. Their offense, though, is a wagon – No question about it. Lindor, Soto, Bichette is a fantastic top 3. If the cards fall their way, the Mets could have one of the 3 best offenses in MLB. Perhaps a change of scenery could finally cause Luis Robert Jr. to return to prior form. This team has an extraordinarily high ceiling, and should win the division.

Miami Marlins

Additions: Pete Fairbanks, Owen Caissie, Chris Paddack

Subtractions: Edward Cabrera, Ryan Weathers

X-Factor: Sandy Alcantara

Close Prospects: C Joe Mack, 1B Nathan Martorella, LHP Thomas White.

The Marlins are perhaps the best example of what can happen for a franchise when a legitimately amazing front office executive takes the reigns. In merely 3 years, former CTC site user Peter Bendix has turned around the entire Marlins research & development front. He’s gotten ownership to buy in on investments in international training facilities, as well as their own internall spring training & rehab facilities. While the pieces haven’t all fallen into place yet, I can imagine the Marlins are not far away from being perennial contenders in their division. If you couldn’t tell, I’m a big fan of Bendix’s. To the team: I’m not sold on them making the playoffs this year. Trading away a standout starter in Edward Cabrera and a breakout candidate in Ryan Weathers was definitely interesting given their rotation’s weaknesses last year. But, they’ll get a full year of Eury Perez, and with bouncebacks from Max Meyer and Sandy Alcantara, their rotation could very well be good this year. Oh, they also have one of the best pitching prospects in baseball in Thomas White lurking in AAA. He projects to be a legitimate ace, and his contributions to this rotation should ensure that it’s better than last year’s iteration. To Sandy. With Alcantara, a bounceback season from him is crucial to the Marlins’ long-term plans. He’s on the last year of his contract, with a 2027 club option after. Him pitching well would mean the Marlins could finally get the return for him they were hoping for last year. The bullpen is iffy, especially now with breakout reliever Ronny Henriquez missing the entire year with Tommy John surgery. But, a backend of Fairbanks and Calvin Faucher should be good enough for a rebuilding team. If everything falls into place, they could be a sneaky Wild Card candidate, but I’m not yet sold on their pitching. With their offense, there are too many question marks to comfortably project it, but, theoretically, it should be around average. Xavier Edwards, Jakob Marsee, Agustin Ramirez, and Owen Caissie should all be major contributors this year, and All-Star Kyle Stowers when he returns from injury.. I’m not sure if they’re there yet, but the Marlins should start to turn the corner this season.

Atlanta Braves

Additions: Ha-Seong Kim, Mike Yastrzemski, Robert Suarez

Subtractions: Marcell Ozuna, Jurickson Profar (due to PEDs)

X-Factor: Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez

Close Prospects: RHP Didier Fuentes, RHP J.R. Ritchie

The Braves lineup should be much better than last year’s, barring injury. So much so that I would’ve considered them among the best teams in baseball. However, multiple injuries sidelining core pieces in their rotation (Strider, Schwellenbach, Smith-Shawver, Wentz), and a complete lack of urgency from their front office to address this rotation (even prior to Strider & Schwellenbach’s injuries) has led their rotation to being in a pretty bad spot. They’re relying on consistency from Chris Sale, who notoriously hasn’t been able to stay healthy since the Red Sox World Series in 2018, and Reynaldo Lopez, who will be in his second year as a starter and coming off Tommy John surgery. Grant Holmes and Bryce Elder are fine, but not in the middle of your rotation. Didier Fuentes (who made the Opening Day roster), is starting in the Braves’ bullpen, with what I assume will inevitably be a temporary move. On the offensive side, they just lost Jurickson Profar to a PED suspension, and Sean Murphy will miss the start of the year with a hip injury. If their core pieces on offense stay healthy (Acuna, Baldwin, Olson, Riley), this offense could legitimately be among the best in MLB, but I’m just not sure that it’ll matter with the weaknesses in their pitching staff. Relying on 37 year old Chris Sale to carry your rotation throughout the season is, well, bad. Signing Robert Suarez to fortify the back of your bullpen because of a declining Raisel Iglesias, was a fine move. The problem is that their rotation isn’t good enough to really compete this year. I understand that foreseeing injuries to TWO core starters and a backend depth option in Spring Training is hard, but you already knew Smith-Shawver would miss the first few months of the year, and the Braves did nothing to address their lack of starting pitching depth. This team could be good if they get their injured pitchers back early enough to make a difference, I’m just not willing to bet on them both coming back early and performing well immediately. The Braves have an extremely small margin for error if they want to compete this year, and that issue falls squarely at the feet of their front office.

Washington Nationals

Additions: Foster Griffin, Zack Littell, Harry Ford

Subtractions: MacKenzie Gore, Josh Bell

X-Factor: Paul Toboni

Close Prospects: N/A

The Nationals. It’s hard to understate just how badly the post-2019 Rizzo tenure was for the Nationals. Rizzo, if you didn’t know, was the Nationals POBO until midseason last year. While he made out well in the Soto trade (Wood, Abrams, maybe Gore), he butchered the Trea Turner and Max Scherzer trade, and botched the development of top draft pick Dylan Crews. The Nationals’ future is really hard to project because of how badly Rizzo messed with their farm system, so I have their X-Factor as their new POBO, Paul Toboni. If he can fix the issues with Dylan Crews, and revamp their farm system, they could be good in the future. For now, they will not be competitive, and will be among the league’s worst teams this year. Their rotation is bad, and their bullpen will inevitably be one of the worst in MLB this year. Their pitching staff at-large could easily rank in the bottom 3 at the end of the season. The lineup is not great, but James Wood and CJ Abrams are bright spots. I assume Abrams will be traded at this year’s deadline, but I can’t say for sure. Wood could be a bonafide superstar, but he’ll have to sustain his success last year in the first half over a full season. (For reference, he had a 150 wRC+ in the 1st half, and a 93 in the 2nd)

National League Central

Milwaukee Brewers

Additions: Kyle Harrison, Brandon Sproat, Luis Rengifo

Subtractions: Freddy Peralta, Caleb Durbin, Isaac Collins

X-Factor: The rotation

Close Prospects: RHP Brandon Sproat, INF/OF Jett Williams, C Jeferson Quero

At the end of almost every season, it seems we all ask ourselves, “How did the Brewers do it this time?”. (Sound familiar, Guardians’ fans?). I assume we’ll be asking that exact same question in September of 2026. I’m not high on the Brewers, but I also understand that they manage to do things that I simply cannot understand. Similar to the Guardians in that respect. Dealing Freddy Peralta was understandable, especially as a fan of a small market team, but they didn’t really do anything to address their rotation outside of that. As of now, per Fangraphs, their rotation is as follows: Misiorowski, Chad Patrick, Brandon Sproat, Kyle Harrison, Brandon Woodruff. I have no idea how that rotation will find a way to be successful, but I’m almost certain it will. If the Brewers figure out their rotation, you can pretty comfortably slot them in atop the National League Central come October 1. Their offense is still really good, with Chourio, Turang, Contreras, and Yelich at the top of their order. The rest is iffy, but, like I keep saying, it’s the Brewers. They’ll find a way, they always seem to find a way.

Chicago Cubs

Additions: Alex Bregman, Edward Cabrera, Hunter Harvey

Subtractions: Kyle Tucker, Aaron Civale, Willi Castro

X-Factor: Pete Crow-Armstrong

Close Prospects: OF Kevin Alcantara, C Moises Ballesteros, RHP Jaxon Wiggins

The Cubs rode a pair of breakouts all the way to the postseason (for the first time in 5 years) last year, and seem poised to make it back to October this year. They fortified their rotation through the addition of Edward Cabrera, and hope a full season of Cade Horton can look as good as what they saw from Horton last year. The depth is a little shaky, but getting Justin Steele back around midseason should help. They also have decent depth at AAA, headlined by top Cubs prospect Jaxon Wiggins. The offense, despite losing Tucker, should still be great this year. Busch, Bregman, Happ, Hoerner is a pretty good top 4, and if PCA can take another leap on offense (which would make him an MVP candidate), then this team will be very good. They play great defense, and they destroy the cover off the baseball. My main concern is the bullpen, but if the breakout they got from Daniel Palencia (World Baseball Classic hero for champion Venezuela) last year is real, then it should be fine. They, like the Royals, are a prime candidate to buy big on relievers at the deadline.

Cincinnati Reds

Additions: Eugenio Suarez

Subtractions: Nick Martinez, Gavin Lux, Zack Littell, Miguel Andujar

X-Factor: Ke’Bryan Hayes

Close Prospects: INF Sal Stewart, RHP Rhett Lowder

In the rotatation for an enigmatic Reds’ team, I’m not sold on Brady Singer, but I think Andrew Abbott, Rhett Lowder, and Chase Burns should be enough. Unfortunately, Hunter Greene is out til, at least, midseason with bone spurs. Nick Lodolo got hurt over the weekend, and will start the year on the IL. Their bullpen is fine, and the backend is good. Tony Santillan and Emilio Pagan (despite what the Guardians have done to him in the past) are good pitchers. Their offense should be around average this year with the additions of Stewart and Suarez to their lineup. So, let me explain my X-Factor. Ke’Bryan Hayes has been a good hitter, consistently, once over close to a full season. He’s one of, if not the, best defenders at 3rd in MLB. If he can finally have a decent offensive showing, that makes this Reds team look entirely different. Their pitching is good enough to get them close to the postseason, but not on its own. The offense has to be better than it was last year for them to make it back, which I think it will.

St. Louis Cardinals

Additions: Dustin May, Ramon Urias

Subtractions: Sonny Gray, Brendan Donovan, Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado

X-Factor: JJ Wetherholt

Close Prospects: SS JJ Wetherholt

The Cardinals are, well, not good. They are not going to be good next year. Their rotation isn’t great, and while their bullpen is fine, it’s not nearly good enough to carry the pitching staff. Not to mention their offense isn’t very good either. Hard to lose 2 major contributors on offense in Donovan and Contreras while losing arguably your best defender in Arenado. But, if Wetherholt breaks out, I could see a world in which the offense is competitive enough to bring this team to the mid-70s in wins. Masyn Winn is still an electric player to watch, but the failure of former top prospect Jordan Walker has hurt the Cardinals current roster. They still have one of the best farm systems in baseball, but that won’t show at the Major League level for another couple of years.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Additions: Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn, Marcell Ozuna

Subtractions: Mike Burrows, Johan Oviedo, Andrew McCutchen

X-Factor: Offseason additions

Close Prospects: SS Konnor Griffin, RHP Bubba Chandler

Perhaps the most exciting team to watch this offseason was the Pirates – a shocking thing to say. In addition to their myriad of moves this offseason, they also sport two of the best prospects in baseball on either side of the baseball. Konnor Griffin is, by most accounts, the best prospect in the sport, and Bubba Chandler is arguably one of the 5 best pitching prospects. It is indeed admirable how aggressive the Pirates were this offseason, trying to capitalize on their window while Paul Skenes is still cheap and under team control. Their bullpen is a little shaky, but Dennis Santana is among the league’s best closers. The Pirates have gotten surprisingly good at pitching development, so we’ll see if they can figure out the bullpen. Any rotation with Paul Skenes at the top is a good rotation, but this one features multiple good pitchers. Mlodzinski is good, Ashcraft is good, and Bubba Chandler could well finish in the top 5 in Rookie of the Year voting if all goes well. Unfortunately, Jared Jones is on the IL to start the season, but should be back at some point midseason. The Pirates are well-poised to break their decade-long postseason drought.

National League West

Los Angeles Dodgers

Additions: Kyle Tucker, Edwin Diaz

Subtractions: Kirby Yates

X-Factor: Tanner Scott

Close Prospects: OF Josue DePaula, OF Zyhir Hope, INF Alex Freeland

Yes, obviously the Dodgers’ actual X-Factor is Shohei Ohtani. If he pitches well, and keeps being one of the best hitters in baseball, this roster is the best. You could argue that even without Ohtani hitting, or without Ohtani pitching, that this team is still the best in baseball. But that’s boring. So, I went with Tanner Scott. He was awful last year. The Dodgers tried to tweak his approach to get him to throw more strikes, and it backfired horribly. He was a big part of the reason that their bullpen was so bad all year long. Adding Edwin Diaz should help with that – a lot. Their rotation will once again be among the best in the league, despite Roki Sasaki’s best efforts. Inevitably, Tyler Glasnow will miss some time. But, when you get a full season of Ohtani pitching, along with Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell (who is currently on the IL, and projected to be back around June), you get a great rotation. The only thing that could hold this team back is the continued age regression of Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez. Mookie Betts’ season was concerning, but he lost a lot of weight from a sickness around the start of last season, so, for now, I’m not that worried about him. This roster is, top to bottom, the best in baseball. Not much else to say. It’d be a disappointment, barring injury, for the Dodgers not to make it back to the World Series… at least for Dodgers fans.

San Diego Padres

Additions: Sung-Mun Song, Miguel Andujar, Griffin Canning

Subtractions: Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez, Ryan O’Hearn, Robert Suarez

X-Factor: Nick Pivetta and Michael King

Close Prospects: N/A

The Padres are in a conundrum. Their GM just traded their top prospect for Mason Miller, but let multiple key pieces to their success walk. Their offense should be good this year, but their rotation is bad. Outside of Pivetta and King, there aren’t any even average pitchers. Their bullpen will inevitably end up as one of the best in the league, but their rotation just isn’t that good. They need Pivetta to stay as good as he was last year, and for King to regain his 2024 form. If even one of those things doesn’t happen, I can’t see this team making the playoffs. The Padres’ front office is the most aggressive in baseball, so anything’s possible, I just don’t see it right now.

San Francisco Giants

Additions: Luis Arraez, Harrison Bader, Tyler Mahle

Subtractions: Justin Verlander

X-Factor: 2025 additions (Rafael Devers and Willy Adames)

Close Prospects: 1B Bryce Eldrige, LHP Carson Whisenhunt

The Giants, barring some collapse, should make the postseason this year. Hard to envision a world in which both Devers and Adames don’t bounce back after relatively disappointing 2025 campaigns. Their offense ranked 22nd in OPS last year, and I can’t see that happening again. Their rotation was also bad, ranking 17th in ERA. Logan Webb is still amazing, and Mahle should be a good contributor. Robbie Ray and Adrian Houser are question marks. The bullpen isn’t that good, at least on paper, but their offense and top-end starting pitching should be enough to bring them to the postseason, if not very close.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Additions: Merrill Kelly, Nolan Arenado

Subtractions: Jake McCarthy

X-Factor: Pitching

Close Prospects: OF Ryan Waldschmidt, 2B/OF Tommy Troy

The Diamondbacks, last year, ranked top 5 in OPS and 22nd in ERA. They also have overseen quite a bit of turnover between the trade deadline and free agency. They’ve changed almost top-to-bottom the names on their pitching coaching staff. Their offense should again be good, although probably not as good as it was last year. Replacing Josh Naylor with Carlos Santana (Deja Vu, anyone?) and Eugenio Suarez with Nolan Arenado is probably not a great recipe for success. But, Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Geraldo Perdomo are all still great hitters. Any success they may have this year will be defined by their pitching. Their rotation, right now, projects to be one of the worst in the league. Their bullpen, which currently features Paul Sewald as closer, with no left-handed pitchers, also projects to be one of the worst. They’ll maybe get Corbin Burnes back at some point, but it’d probably be closer to late August/early September. This team probably isn’t going to make the playoffs, but they’ll be fun bad. Good offense, bad pitching – silver linings for Diamondbacks fans.

Colorado Rockies

Additions: Jose Quintana, Willi Castro, Michael Lorenzen, Jake McCarthy

Subtractions: German Marquez

X-Factor: Paul DePodesta

Close Prospects: N/A

The Rockies. This is going to be short, because there isn’t much to say that hasn’t already been said about them. Their front office has, historically, been among the worst in baseball, and consistently is found to be years behind every even average front office in research & development. So, naturally, you hire Paul DePodesta, who hasn’t worked in baseball in a decade. Maybe it works, but his rumored dependence on sabermetrics doesn’t seem like it’ll bold well with an owner who infamously abhors advanced statistics. Maybe DePodesta will be the one to figure out the ‘Rockies problem’, regardless, he holds the keys to whatever happens in the Rockies’ future. They don’t have that great of a farm system, and they have one of the worst rosters in MLB. They also happen to play in the hardest park to pitch in in MLB.

What do you think – which of these teams have I overrated? Underrated? Overlooked? Let me know in the comments below.

The Orioles started the season 3-2 last year before going 18-34 in April and May. Baltimore was all but out of the division race before posting a 16-11 June, and the team’s 13-12 July record failed to prevent a sale at the trade deadline.

They say you can’t win a World Series early in the season, but you can lose your opportunity to compete for one. Baltimore lost their manager, multiple starting pitchers, and any chance at the postseason before school let out for summer. It’s a fate that the 2026 team will do everything in its power to avoid.

Teams can survive a slow start if they turn things on later in the year, but there is a real incentive for this group to hit the ground running. The team added multiple veteran leaders in Pete Alonso, Chris Bassitt and Taylor Ward, but several of Baltimore’s top contributors are younger players lacking in postseason experience.

New skipper Craig Albernaz has made an impact with his “Day One” mantra, but the still (relatively) young core could adapt a “here we go again” type of mindset if they struggle out of the gate. I shouldn’t have to sell you on the importance of winning baseball games, but should we expect it to happen?

Reason for Optimism

One look at the starting rotation should already inspire confidence. Zach Eflin—last year’s Opening Day starter—has dropped to the bottom of the rotation. Trevor Rogers is set to take the ball in Game 1 after pitching at a Cy Young pace for a majority of the last season. Kyle Bradish is back. The team likes the floor and loves the ceiling of trade acquisition Shane Baz, and Chris Bassitt knows how to pitch in the AL East.

This group replaces 30 starts by Tomoyuki Sugano, 22 appearances by Cade Povich, and 23 games from Charlie Morton. Povich and Brandon Young (12 starts in 2025) will look to develop at Norfolk where they’ll be joined by six-year veteran Dean Kremer.

Baltimore optioning Kremer (11-10, 4.19 ERA) to the minors should tell you everything you need to know about this rotation. Kremer posted 2.2 bWAR last season, and the team believes it has at least five starters that give the team a better chance to win. The 30-year-old righty will definitely get a chance to make an impact this season, but his option speaks to the depth that Baltimore has built up for 2026. Kremer, Povich, Young, Tyler Wells, and Albert Suárez could all take the ball while prospects like Trey Gibson work toward a summer promotion.

The starters will hopefully find their way into winnable games thanks to the offensive additions. Pete Alonso will provide protection for Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Colton Cowser. A full year of Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers should help. Taylor Ward tallied 36 homers last season, and Tyler O’Neill should be able to top his disappointing totals from 2025. The mainstays of the lineup should lighten the burden on players like Cowser, Coby Mayo and Blaze Alexander.

The schedule looks relatively favorable with matchups against the Twins, Rangers, Pirates and White Sox to begin the season.

Cause for Concern

The Orioles infield took a blow when Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg went down with injuries. Holliday is already nearing a return, but hand injuries often make an impact on a player’s ability to hit for power. Westburg is set to miss at least the first month, but there’s a lingering concern that the team will be without the former All Star long term.

Baltimore will count on Mayo and Alexander to fill the void in April. Mayo’s defense will be under a microscope, and Alexander will be asked to fill a larger role than originally anticipated. What happens if the duo fail to meet expectations?

Ryan Helsley will enter the season as the team’s closer, but the bullpen hierarchy still needs ironed out. Andrew Kittredge and Keegan Akin both suffered spring injuries, and Yennier Cano failed to pitch like a high-leverage reliever last season. Albernaz will look to find trustworthy relievers early in the year, but the search could come with consequences if players fail to meet the moment.

Well, the White Sox almost had a winning record in the Cactus League, what with a 15-16-1 finish. Too bad it doesn’t matter.

But they ended up losing their last five games, six if you include the Spring Breakout game. Good thing it doesn’t matter.

Of course, their big hullabaloo this season is about “momentum,” and that momentum isn’t necessarily the kind they want. So maybe momentum doesn’t matter, either, except maybe as a PR gimmick.

Everyone knows Spring Training records are meaningless, whether for such badness as the Mariners being last in the Cactus League last year or next-to-last this year, or the goodness of the Rockies sporting a 15-14-1 record this year. True, the 2024 White Sox gave a sad foreshadowing of the regular season to come by finishing last in the spring as well, but the 2005 World Champs were next to third from last in Arizona with a 14-18 record, so things can really turn around once it counts.

But what about individual performances? After all, we do talk about how a solid spring could get somebody a spot on a major league roster.

Well, maybe not so much meaning there, either.

White Sox spring 2025 leaders provide a look at carryover accuracy

On the hitting side, Chicago’s big leader, with an astounding 1.352 OPS, was none other than (pause for dramatic effect) Adam Hackenberg! Yep, Adam Hackenberg, who went on to spend the regular season in Charlotte and Birmingham, and hit a combined .206. Now, the folks who keep track of spring stats tend to divide the line at 20 at-bats, and Hackenberg’s 12 wouldn’t make the cut, nor would Kyle Teel’s 1.119 OPS in 19 at-bats or William Bergolla Jr.‘s 1.167 in 12.

With the cutoff applied, the immortal Brandon Drury leads the 2025 White Sox with a staggering 1.260 OPS. Yep, Brandon Drury, who went on to a regular season where he hit .179 in 10 games in Charlotte before being released and then signed by the Angels, where he worked his way down to rookie league level.

A one-off, perhaps? Well, next was the .989 of Nick Maton, who then hit .167 in Chicago and .192 in Charlotte before being released. Maton was followed by Tristan Gray (.978), who actually hit a solid .270/.333/.472 in Charlotte before the team sold him to the Rays, where he posted a respectable .693 OPS for a middle infielder.

(As an aside, OPS tends to be the favorite stat of evaluation for hitters these days, but it’s unfair to singles hitters, who could post a .300 average and next-to-Aaron Judge .400 on-base percentage and still come in at a below-average .700, despite the very important Moneyball belief that what really matters is getting on base.)

The top performance among any batter who actually started for the White Sox was the fine .966 of Luis Robert Jr. We all know how that went.

What about pitchers?

By far the best pitcher for the White Sox in 2025 was Adrian Houser, who wasn’t with the team until May. Of those who were around in Arizona, there’s more correlation with the games that count than with hitters, but not anything close to a clear picture.

Martín Pérez sported a fine 2.25 ERA over 12 innings and pitched well once it counted until he got injured (yeah, yeah, ERA isn’t a great stat in a small sample size, but you go with what you’ve got). Shane Smith just went up from 3.37 to 3.81.

But three 0.00 ERAs topped the guys who did the best — Cam Booser (regular season 5.52), Penn Murfee (7.82), and the guy who we don’t talk about (minors). Justin Dunn had a 1.13, then a 7.63 in Charlotte before being released, and was even worse for Royals affiliates. Davis Martin had a 1.90, less than half his regular-season number, which was okay. Jonathan Cannon’s 10.32 showed he was already in trouble.

But that’s ancient history, the Sox have momentum now!

Okay, so here’s the 2026 story:

Most importantly, none other than Adam Hackenberg was back for another try, and once again he led the team!! Batted a perfect 1.000. Okay, it was only one at-bat, but that’s not his fault.

Of those with more than 20 official trips this year, the leader was Oliver Dunn, with a 1.128 OPS on a .296/.387/.741 slash line. Of course, he won’t be on the regular season roster, so Austin Hays tops those who will, at 1.056, followed by Luisangel Acuña at 1.004. One can only hope there is some carryover to games that count.

Of note is that among the top Sox hitters this spring is Korey Lee, .289/.426/.526, so naturally he’s being dumped in favor of Reese McGuire for reasons only the incredible White Sox brain trust is smart enough to comprehend.

Chase Meidroth and the various competitors for the fifth outfield spot hit it pretty well. Hitting better than expected were Lenyn Sosa and Andrew Benintendi (though Benintendi K’ed one-third of the time), with Munetaka Murakami doing fine, especially in only K’ing eight times in 29 at-bats, not including WBC time. Edgar Quero did fine, as did prospects William Bergolla Jr., Braden Montgomery, and (especially) Sam Antonacci.

On the uh-oh side, Colson Montgomery whiffed 20 times in 55 at-bats and only walked three times. He did hit three homers, but only had — this is amazingly bad — four RBIs. Final line .182/.224/.345, about where he was a year ago in Charlotte, that had him seemingly heading toward a career in coaching high school ball, until a couple of weeks back in Arizona straightened him out. This time, he’s already in Arizona, so who knows where he’ll have to head.

All in all, early in the spring, when the Sox were winning, they were doing a whole bunch of scoring when it was late in the game, and our-NRIs-vs-your-NRIs. Later, not so much.

Pitchers?

Better not to ask. Let’s just say the sample size is too small and not mention how bad Shane Smith and Anthony Kay looked last time out. The rest of the starters were at least middling, as were many relievers except theoretical-star-of-the-future Grant Taylor and theoretical-star-of-the-now Sean Newcomb.

There is a stat that shows the level of opposition a player faced in the spring; the Baseball-Reference.com version gives 10 points if the batter or pitcher faced was in the majors in 2025, eight if in Triple-A, seven if in Double-A, and so on down the line. Unfortunately, it’s a stat with a problem, since particularly early in the spring, minor league pitchers trying to move up in the ranks are going to be firing their very best stuff unless specifically told not to, and major leaguers secure in their jobs may well experiment with a new pitch or grip or arm angle and work on their worst stuff, not their best. Remember when Jake Peavy went an entire spring start, throwing nothing but change-ups?

So?

So best to look back at the top. Nothing so far matters except Kyle Teel and Mike Vasil getting hurt, especially Vasil, since he’ll be gone into 2027. Not the at-least-mediocre record, alas. But not any bad performances, either.

Let the stuff that goes on their permanent record begin!

Tomorrow is Opening Day. But tonight is baseball. Regular season baseball.

MLB is debuting Opening Night this year, with the Yankees and Giants opening their seasons against each other, all streamed through Netflix. It’s a double-blow to the traditionalists; not only are we getting a game before the proper start of the season, but it’s an interleague game, no less. It’s not exactly unprecedented— various international games have been played prior to Opening Day, and counted in the regular season standings. Still, it’s a change of pace.

In the days to come, we’ll have plenty of more serious, more pressing, more controversial questions to ask about the Phillies as their season takes shape. So let’s have a more casual question to end the offseason. What do you think about Opening Night?

The Red Sox rotation is set. Garrett Crochet will start the season opener on Thursday in Cincinnati, Sonny Gray will then take the hill for game 2 on Saturday, and in what was a pretty significant announcement today, Connelly Early will get the ball for the series finale on Sunday. From there, Ranger Suarez, the biggest signing of the offseason will start game 4 in Houston on Monday, and Brayan Bello will round out the first swing around the carousel on Tuesday.

Because of a combination of factors, including Suarez’s schedule for Team Venezuela in the WBC and certain matchups in Cincinnati and Houston, the bottom two slots in the rotation were actually filled in before the game 3 starter was determined for Sunday. But this morning, Rob Bradford broke the news that filled in the final piece of the puzzle:

Connelly Early will start Game 3. Oviedo will be in the bullpen.

— Rob Bradford (@bradfo) March 24, 2026

So this is the part of the proceedings where I have to admit I was completely wrong and give my “mea culpa.”

As recently as this month, I was convinced the Red Sox were going to give this rotation spot to Johan Oviedo and send Connelly Early down to Worcester for at least 35 days to start the season to squeeze an extra year of control out of him. This is what a team operating as a “good business” would do. And quite frankly, the Red Sox have operated too much like a good business and not enough like a good baseball team over the last five years.

But I’m happy to report, I was completely wrong! Connelly Early came into camp ready to be a major leaguer, forced the issue by looking great every outing, and the Red Sox, to their credit, rewarded him with the rotation spot on Sunday. Good on everyone (except me)!

This is so refreshing on multiple levels. First of all, there are few things better in life than when young guys on your team enter the mix and prove they can be legit pieces on a potential future championship core. Early is in the process of doing that right now, and I can’t wait to see what he looks like on Sunday as he continues on that journey.

Secondly, and this might be even more important in the grand scheme of things, the Red Sox are acting like a baseball franchise concerned with winning baseball titles immediately. For years, there’s been this eye on tomorrow, and an overall general sense of trying to accumulate as many assets as possible that will eventually be turned out on the world someday.

Well, finally, that someday is today! The Red Sox are putting their best possible rotation on the mound from day one. The Red Sox are trying to get in first place in the division race as quickly as possible and put pressure on everybody else. The Red Sox are acting like a team that knows they have Garrett Crochet in his prime and if they post one of the two best records in the AL they get to go straight to the LDS round where he can pitch twice in five games. This is the type of stuff winning baseball teams do.

Even more impressive might be their decision to not start Oviedo in the rotation. Remember, the Red Sox traded Jhostynxon Garcia (The Password) for Oviedo just three months ago. It would have been so easy for them to say “well, this is the guy we liked in December so this is the guy we’re going to roll with out of the gate now.” Instead, they treated the outings between him and Early like a real competition, and awarded the job based on merit. And yes, I know this is exactly what they’re supposed to be doing, but in a world where things like this are increasingly not the case, it just so refreshing to see it play out this way.

Here’s another benefit for the Red Sox in handing the ball to Early: I’m now specifically extra pumped up to watch Sunday’s game to see him pitch — And I can’t imagine I’m alone in this position either. If that’s true, the Sox have just created a whole additional layer of buzz around this team and really turned Opening Day into Opening week.

Just think about what we’ve got on tap now: Opening Day and Garett Crochet in the Thursday game, our first look at Sonny Gray in a Red Sox uniform in the second game on Saturday, Connelly Early and the newfound buzz in the third, and then the big winter signing in Ranger Suarez in the fourth. After that, Crochet, is coming around again for game 6 in Houston, and the home opener is slated for game 7. That’s a tremendous lineup, and it makes me more excited for the start of a Red Sox season than I’ve been in a long, long time.

The Mets' fortunes have swung wildly over the last four seasons, taking their fans on a roller coaster ride of emotions. 

In 2022, the team was dominant until it wasn't, faltering just enough late to squander the NL East title before bowing out with a whimper in the Wild Card Series at Citi Field after winning 101 games. 

The 2023 squad struggled to the point where there was a midseason sell-off, with Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander among those shipped out.

In 2024, the Mets went on a somewhat miraculous run to the NLCS, sneaking into the playoffs before beating the Brewers in the Wild Card Series, vanquishing the Phillies in the NLDS, and ultimately falling to the mighty Dodgers in the NLCS.

Then came 2025, when New York went from having the best record in baseball on June 12 to out of the playoffs, after a slow burn of a collapse that culminated with them being eliminated on the final day of the season because they couldn't beat the Marlins

It's possible the Mets would've broken up their core even if the 2025 club snuck into the postseason, but their clear flaws and ultimate failure helped give president of baseball operations David Stearns cover to truly transform the roster -- putting his stamp on it in the process. 

With the dust settled, Pete Alonso, Edwin Diaz, Brandon Nimmo, and Jeff McNeil are no longer in New York.

The new faces include Freddy Peralta, Bo Bichette, Devin Williams, Jorge Polanco, Luis Robert Jr., and Marcus Semien.

Stearns adding Peralta, Bichette, and Robert late in the offseason gave a serious jolt to a team that was very much incomplete until their arrivals. And, to this writer, resulted in the 2026 Mets having a better roster than the one they opened the 2025 season with. 

How will that play out on the field?

Here is our preview and prediction for the 2026 season...

What the Mets have going for them

By adding a legitimate top-of-the-rotation arm in Peralta and with Nolan McLean set for a full year in the big league rotation after a late-season cameo in 2025, New York's starting staff is in strong shape at the top.

There are some question marks in the middle and back end, including the health/effectiveness of Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea (who will start the season in a piggyback role). But Senga's stuff was eye-opening in spring training, with his fastball regularly hitting the high-90s. Meanwhile, Clay Holmes and David Peterson should again be solid contributors.

What could help set the 2026 rotation apart from the 2025 one that faltered badly is the quality depth, which includes Christian Scott, Jonah Tong, and Jack Wenninger, and could eventually include Jonathan Santucci. 

Stearns said shortly after the 2025 campaign ended that he wasn't aggressive enough in addressing the rotation's shortcomings during the season, so it shouldn't be a surprise if he turns to one of New York's intriguing depth options quickly should someone in the majors falter. 

The offense should be formidable, though a bit different without Alonso's game-changing power.

However, while the Mets might not hit as many homers as they did in 2025, they should be better when it comes to making contact (with Bichette and Polanco helping to lead the way there).

A potential top-four of Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Bichette, and Polanco could give opposing pitchers fits. And while the rest of the lineup isn't as established, both Brett Baty (111 OPS+ in 2025) and Francisco Alvarez (122 OPS+ in 2025) are coming off career years. 

A wild card is Carson Benge, who looked the part in spring training and will likely be eased in by hitting in the bottom of the lineup.

The Mets should also be better defensively, due in large part to Gold Glover Semien at second base and Gold Glover Robert in center field.

Yes, Polanco is learning first base and Bichette is learning third base. 

In the case of Bichette, he's a tireless worker and just the latest shortstop to make the transition to third. As far as Polanco, he is a former shortstop and has been getting acclimated to his new position since late last season. He's also replacing Alonso, who was near the bottom of the league last season when it came to both range and arm strength. 

If there's one area of the roster that is a bit of a question mark, it's the bullpen.

Without Diaz, it will be Williams closing games. He's coming off a relatively down 2025, but his underlying metrics and stuff last season suggest his struggles were fluky.

Helping anchor the back end of the 'pen will be Luke Weaver and Brooks Raley, and the return of A.J. Minter (perhaps in the beginning of May) should be a big help.

Still, it feels like the relief corps might be one late-inning arm short. Maybe that arm arrives in the form of hard-throwing prospect Ryan Lambert sooner rather than later.

The Mets will make the playoffs if...

New York has all the pieces to not only make the postseason, but win a tough NL East over the Phillies and Braves. 

The prediction here is that the Braves will rebound after a rough 2025, but will be held back a bit by their injury-riddled rotation. When it comes to the Phillies, their hopes could hinge on the health of Zack Wheeler, who is working his way back from thoracic outlet surgery.

Getting back to the Mets, it's easy to envision their starting rotation being a strength, especially at the top. If it is, the wins should follow. 

Meanwhile, the offense should be very good, and could go up a notch if Robert finds his stroke and/or Benge makes an immediate impact. 

The Mets will also be in very strong position if their top arms in Triple-A excel and force their way up, with two of them -- Tong and Scott -- having tantalizing upside.

The Mets will miss the playoffs if...

For a team like the 2026 Mets that has undergone so many changes, it's always possible things simply don't mesh.

Injuries could also play a factor. Even this early, it's fair to keep an eye on the diminished velocity of Manaea. 

Beyond that, while McLean has some of the best stuff in the league, a lot is being put on him to help lead the rotation this soon. A scenario exists where he doesn't perform quite as well as expected, which would put a crimp in the rotation.

Then there's the bullpen, which seems a bit light and is relying on a bounce back from Williams. 

In a National League that should have the Mets, Phillies, Braves, Cubs, Reds, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, and others fighting for six playoff spots, some good teams will miss out. 

Final record and playoff prediction

93-69
First place in NL East

The Mets will finish with the second-best record in the NL (behind the Dodgers), earning a bye to the NLDS.

In the NLDS, New York will defeat the Cubs.

In the NLCS, the Mets will beat the Padres.

New York's run will come to an end in the World Series, where they'll fall to the Mariners.

The lab is first and foremost a place where we get to learn more about baseball. As much as I would love to pass myself off as an expert in all things, that would be the height of hubris and would deprive all of us the opportunity to avail ourselves of genuine expertise. As most of you know, Jimmy Price has been contributing here at the Crawfish Boxes for some time. He also has his individual venture called Astros Future. I wanted to learn more about the process of evaluating younger players and how statistics are used to predict which minor leaguers will make it and which ones won’t. Jimmy seemed like the perfect resource to tap into.

The Crawfish Boxes: Most dedicated fans know about the five tools. Has there ever been consideration of adding plate discipline as a sixth tool or should it be folded into the hit tool?

Jimmy Price: Great question. I think it is built into the hit tool right now. If a guy has big power but poor pitch selection, his hit tool will falter. But if someone has great plate discipline and selection, their hit tool could still fall if they don’t make enough contact. I love the idea of rating on just plate discipline.

TCB: As a scouting expert, how do you integrate in person scouting accounts with statistical or empirical evidence?

JP:  Definitely no expert here.. but in person you get to see more and hear more. The sound of the bat, pitches, etc. You get a better feel for movement defensively. I think it’s important to look at both. What you see in person and what the statistics say.

TCB: As someone that focuses on minors and amateur baseball, which numbers do you trust the most in predicting future success?

JP: A few numbers I like to look at… for pitchers, I like to look at BAA. We see prospects have poor command but that is something that can be improved. If your pitches are hard to square up, that’s a good trait to have. For hitters, I’m a big fan of plate discipline. I like to look at BB/SO ratio but then look at their swinging strike percentage. Plate discipline is good but when you decide to swing, you have to be able to make contact. 

TCB: The current regime seems to be collecting toolsy guys that have some swing and miss issues. Is this by design or is it a function of picking lower in the first round and limited bonus pool money?

JP:  I think this might just be the preference for Dana Brown and his crew. Power is hard to teach but I am sure the Astros feel with some tweaks they can make adjustments to help prospects make more contact, or make better swing decisions. Raw tools are a gift that can’t be replicated.

TCB: Who are three or four names you are excited to see this year in the Houston system?

JP:  I would start with Cole Hertzler. I think he is a breakout candidate and may win pitcher of the year in the system. Anthony Huezo is another who had a solid 2025 season and will now be a full-season player. Xavier Neyens will get some actual in-game action which will be great to watch. Lastly I would say Ethan Frey. Great numbers last year and I think he has a chance to be a fast riser. 

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I definitely want to thank Jimmy for joining us here In The Lab. It probably won’t be the last time we tap into him. I know it is shameless cross promotion, but this is an important year for the Astros in terms of their minor league system. The Astros received an extra pick because Hunter Brown finished in the top three in the Cy Young vote and they received a compensation pick because Framber Valdez signed with the Detroit Tigers. Those extra picks also bring extra bonus pool money that will give the Astros some flexibility in signing their draftees. As we get closer to June, make sure to keep tabs on what Jimmy is doing so that you can be plugged into the Astros draft.

Sweet 16 is in the air in Houston.  

It’s with the Houston Cougars at Toyota Center.

It’s with Jose Altuve stepping into the batter’s box on Opening Day as he embarks upon his 16th year. Many fans will recall his homer on Opening Day five years ago against the A’s.

Of course, every organizational great is rightfully judged by the likes of Craig Biggio, who would represent the city for two decades. In the icon’s 16th campaign, Biggio would post respectable numbers with 14 homers and 55 RBI, though the Astros would fall a game short of winning the old NL Central to the Chicago Cubs.

Speaking of Chicago, Ryne Sandberg was a model of consistency. His 16th season would be his last in the majors.    One wonders what Ryno’s final career totals would’ve been had the last several weeks of the 1994 season and all of 1995 not been wiped out from the lockout.   

Even more Hall of Famer second basemen would patrol the heart of the diamond in the Midwest, with careers of at least 16 years.

By year 16, Joe Morgan was in sharp decline. One of the main cogs of the Big Red Machine in Cincinnati was a shell of his former shelf by 1978, producing 57 less RBI than his 76′ campaign.    

Lou Whitaker, separated from Morgan by some 250 miles in Motown, had a respectable 19 HR and 71 RBI in his 16th season with the Tigers.    Sweet Lou played his entire 19-year career with Detroit, playing 1,918 games together with Alan Trammell.     

Roberto Alomar collected Gold Gloves like Super Mario collects gold coins. An all-around player in his career, there was a three-year span in which Alomar would steal 157 bases.   Along the way, he also played for seven clubs.   If you can name all seven teams he played for, you’re better than most. In his 16th season, he had diminished power and speed, but he still had some decent at bats.

Robinson Cano’s 16th campaign was a nightmare. He’d appear in only 49 games, as suspensions would rain down for PED’s.

When #27 comes to the plate, take a moment to recognize his place among the greats, even at this stage of his amazing career. One day, he’ll join many of them in Cooperstown.

Astros fans, the wait is finally over. The long offseason has come to an end, and with it arrives something that never goes out of style, hope.

As Opening Day approaches, there’s a noticeable shift in the air. Months of dissecting roster flaws, questioning decisions, and wondering whether this team has done enough suddenly give way to something far more powerful: belief. It’s the annual reset button that baseball provides, where every team starts fresh and every fan dares to dream again.

Despite all the concerns that have been raised about this roster, the start of the season flips a switch. Suddenly, it’s easy to envision this lineup as a force, one capable of producing runs in bunches and carrying the team through tough stretches. There’s renewed confidence that the starting rotation, even with its heavy right-handed lean, can go deep into games and deliver consistent results.

In many ways, the Astros enter this season in a different and somewhat refreshing position. For years, they’ve been the hunted—the team every opponent circled on the calendar. Now, they find themselves among the hunters in the American League. The spotlight isn’t quite as harsh. The expectations, while still present, aren’t suffocating. Doubters and prognosticators have placed them squarely in the middle of the pack, creating an opportunity to exceed expectations rather than merely meet them.

That shift could prove valuable. Without a constant target on their backs, the Astros can focus on simply playing their game. And if they find success early, the narrative can quickly change, from overlooked contender to rising force.

No, this team may not match the dominance of the 2019 roster. But it doesn’t have to. What it does have is enough talent to compete, enough to stay in the mix for a playoff spot and potentially challenge for another division title. This isn’t a rebuilding club or a team destined for 100 losses. Far from it. With a solid foundation already in place, even a couple of key moves by general manager Dana Brown between now and the trade deadline could elevate this group into one of the better teams in baseball.

That’s the beauty of the sport. That’s why baseball endures. It offers something simple yet powerful: hope. The belief that, no matter the questions or uncertainties, there’s always a chance this could be the year.

And now, with first pitch drawing near, that feeling is back where it belongs.

As Thursday afternoon approaches, the excitement builds. The rhythms of daily baseball life return, from checking lineups, to following box scores, tuning in to broadcasts, and living and breathing every pitch. It’s a marathon, not a sprint, but it’s one fans are more than ready to run.

The wait is over, Houston.

It’s time to play ball.

While it is certainly common for players to play for multiple franchises in their career, more often than not, they are generally associated with one team. In the case of today’s birthday boy, that association is not with the Yankees. Lee Mazzili played 14 seasons in the majors, less than one of which came with the Yankees, but he did put together some good runs among the game’s best and later came back to coach.

Mazzilli celebrates his 71st birthday on Wednesday (no doubt delighted that it coincides with Opening Day), and though he is not necessarily remembered for his time in pinstripes, the former All-Star is the subject of today’s entry into the series. A long-time big league contributor and a World Series winner, Mazzili’s career is certainly worth recognizing.

Lee Louis Mazzilli
Born: March 25, 1955 (New York, NY)
Yankees Tenure: 1982 (also coached 2000-03, 2006)

Lee Mazzilli was a New Yorker through and through. He was born there, he was drafted out of Abraham Lincoln High School in Brooklyn, and is most known for his time with the Mets, while also, of course, dabbling with the Yankees.

He was selected by the Mets in the 1973 Draft, who had enough interest to take him in the first round, with the 14th overall pick. Three years later, Mazzilli was making his MLB debut with the ’76 squad. Although his 24 games that season weren’t anything to write home about, it was the beginning of a decade-and-a-half run in the Majors for Mazzilli, much of which would come with the team that drafted him.

The 22-year-old switch-hitter got his first chance at a starting job in 1977, taking the opportunity given to him by new player/manager Joe Torre and running with it. His production with the bat was forgettable, but he provided solid value as the Mets’ everyday centerfielder. A year later, Mazzilli would begin playing the best baseball of his career and saw his national profile grow — assisted by some natural good looks, to boot. It was just a shame for him that his prime came when the Mets were downright lousy.

From 1978 to 1980, Mazzilli put up three seasons of legitimate All-Star level play while manning one of the more important positions on the diamond. In each of those seasons, the budding star posted a 123 or better OPS+, hit at least fifteen homers, while slashing a combined .286/.374/.437. ‘79 would prove to be the best season of his career, as he posted career-bests with a 137 wRC+ and 4.7 fWAR, as he was elected to his lone All-Star team.

1981 saw a downturn for Mazzilli, as he played in just 95 games due to injury trouble, and when he was on the field, he produced at a below-average rate with the bat. Just before the start of the ’82 campaign, the Mets had decided it was time to move on, as they shipped him off in a trade to the Rangers. He played in 58 games, at roughly the same disappointing level he just had with the Mets, before being traded once again, this time to the Yankees in exchange for former fan favorite Bucky Dent.

Thus began Mazzilli’s Yankees run, though it would not be a particularly long or memorable run. He amassed 144 plate appearances with the Bombers, doing a nice job with them, homering six times and hitting to the tune of a respectable (and much improved) 113 OPS+. Those “Bronx Burner” Yankees were doomed from the jump however, cycling through three managers and finishing under .500 despite making it to Game 6 of the World Series the previous year. That would be the end of Mazzilli’s time playing in the Bronx, as he was traded to the Pirates in December, though not the end of his Yankee story entirely.

Mazzilli spent three decent seasons with Pittsburgh from 1983-85, before being released mid-season in 1986. it was a stretch that also included involvement in a cocaine-related controversy and trial. What likely seemed like a curse quickly turned into a blessing, as he was picked back up by the Mets and played some terrific baseball down the stretch. During the revitalization, he even added a pair of hits in five at-bats during the Mets’ victorious World Series that season. Mazzilli had endured some tough teams, but he was a champion at last.

Mazzili would play the next two seasons in Queens, to highly-varying degrees of success, with the ’88 season showing serious signs of decline. 1989 was ultimately the final season of his playing career, a year in which he played some solid ball split between time with the Mets and a final stop with the Blue Jays.

The above single capped off an up-and-down, but nonetheless impressive 14-year run in the majors. Mazzilli retired with 1,068 in his career, including 191 doubles and 93 homers, as well as 197 stolen bases.

Mazzilli had a few jobs away from baseball in the early 1990s, even appearing in an Off-Broadway show, Tony ’n’ Tina’s Wedding. But the game—and more specifically his old Mets skipper Joe Torre—called him back. Torre had just managed the Yankees to a World Series title in his first season and had the pull to recommend Mazzilli for a minor-league managerial opening in 1997. He accepted and spent two years running High-A Tampa and one with Double-A Norwich.

Soon, Mazzilli was on his way to join the big-league staff, as first-base coach José Cardenal departed Torre’s staff after 1999 due in part to a contract dispute. So Mazzilli took over at first and stayed in the position from 2000 to 2003, winning a World Series over his old Mets in that first year.

Mazzilli became a familiar face to young fans watching the dynasty’s final years of World Series glory, but he’d also built a name for himself as a possible managerial candidate. The Orioles chose him for the job in 2004, but his MLB managerial career lasted only a year and a half. Following a sub-.500 debut, Baltimore had an out-of-nowhere surge to 42-28 at the start of ’05, leading the AL East over the Yankees and Red Sox. From there, they went into an absolute tailspin, going 9-28 to tumble back to irrelevance. Mazzilli was fired on August 3rd after the O’s dropped their eighth in a row.

Mazzilli returned as the bench coach for Torre’s Yankees in 2006, only to be replaced the next year when the Yankees decided to hire Kevin Long as hitting coach and slide Mattingly to Torre’s side on the bench. He’s since worked for SNY and remained a presence in the New York sports scene, making some Old-Timers’ Day appearances as well. Mazzilli will be honored by the Mets in 2026, as he was voted into their most recent Hall of Fame class.

Although Mazzilli’s overall time with the Yankees was brief, his continued his involvement with the club went well beyond his playing days. Mazzilli was, at times, a very good big-league player, and though he won’t be remembered primarily as a Yankee, he certainly made his mark as a New York City native.

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See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Meet the Mets

The Mets will be wearing a memorial patch on their jerseys for Davey Johnson this season.

The New York Transit Museum will be running a vintage 7 Line train to Mets-Willet Point Thursday morning in honor of Opening Day.

Carson Benge had an excited (and colorful) reaction to being called up to the major league roster.

Mike Puma of the New York Post has predicted that the Mets will triumph over the Mariners in this year’s World Series, and hopefully he has the same success as last season’s predictions.

In fact, the whole New York Post staff made their various 2026 predictions.

The SNY staff made their own predictions for 2026 playoff teams, postseason results, and more.

Laura Albanese paid tribute to her love of baseball, which is deeper than the usual reasons, and graded the Mets’ positions ahead of the start of the season.

Freddy Peralta might be the glue guy the Mets have desperately needed.

A few years ago, Brooks Raley would’ve never believed New York to be his long-term home, but he enters 2026 as the longest-tenured Mets reliever.

After years of criticism about paying too much homage to the former Brooklyn Dodgers and not enough to the history of the team it homes, Citi Field has finally come into its own as the home of the New York Mets.

Around the National League East

The Braves have already run into a roster issue before the season has even started: they might have run the well dry on major league pitching before a single regular season game has been played.

The Marlins have signed outfielder Austin Slater to a major league contract.

The Yankees traded infielder Zack Short to the Nationals for cash.

Around Major League Baseball

After praising employees for speaking up about misconduct, the Detroit Tigers forced a whistleblower out of the organization.

ESPN has a full 2026 offseason chaos guide, to help fans prepare ahead of the start of the season.

The Brewers have traded minor league pitcher K.C. Hunt to the Rays for pitcher Jake Woodford.

Former Met Joey Lucchesi has signed with the Angels and is expected to make their roster.

The new rules for first and third-base coaches has them standing potentially in harm’s way.

The Yankees have finalized their Opening Day roster.

Pete Crow-Armstrong has officially signed a six-year, $115 million extension with the Cubs, buying out the rest of his years of team control and then some.

The so-called “robot umps” are coming, and they’re cool, but they’re certainly not perfect.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

The staff here at Amazin’ Avenue made some bold predictions for the upcoming 2026 season.

Linda Surovich wrote about the potential of Luke Weaver to dominate in the Mets’ remade bullpen this season.

Linus Lawrence brought us the Final Four of Mets Madness and previewed the championship matchup.

Linus also asked the question most Mets fans are worrying about in the bullpen: which Devin Williams is the one the Mets signed to a three-year deal this offseason?

Brian Salvatore previewed Brooks Raley’s 2026 season.

This Date in Mets History

Today is the birthday of two well-known Mets, one whose Mets tenure was famous and another’s whose tenure was more infamous.

With the 2026 coming up on us quickly, let’s have our prediction thread.

1. Give us your guess for the winners in each division.

2. Wild Card teams?

3. Who makes it to the World Series, and who wins?

4. Who gets the major awards in each league? MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year?

5. Pick a breakout Blue Jays player of the year.

6. Who is the biggest disappointment (can be a team or player)?

7. How many Blue Jays wins?

8. Who will be the Jays MVP and Best Pitcher?

And if you want to make any other predictions.

Over a career spanning 12 seasons, Miguel Rojas has gone from an overlooked bench player in 2014 to hitting one of, if not, the most important home runs in Dodgers history.

Rojas’ legacy as a Dodger icon is now cemented, his ninth inning home run against Jeff Hoffman in Game 7 will be remembered for generations, and he can end his career knowing that his name will be attached to a pair of the most triumphant plays in baseball history. As Rojas enters the 13th and final season of his playing career, he has a lot to be grateful for.

Rojas spoke with Jack Oliver of Jomboy Media, known on social media as Jolly Olive, during the early parts of spring training as to how the veteran infielder feels about his final season. Rojas noted that he is eager to get every opportunity to play, not wanting to have his playing time reduced solely because of his age.

“This year, I have a different perspective, because I’m not afraid to empty the tank anymore. I’m going to have a conversation with Doc, and I’m going to tell him not to be afraid to put me in spots that he always kind of took care for me in the past… I’m going to tell him, ‘Hey, use me as much as you can. Don’t feel bad because I’m one of the veterans…’ I want to take every single opportunity, every single at-bat that I can, and help the team in any capacity.”

Rojas is coming off a remarkable spring where he slashed .362/.380/.532 with two home runs and eight RBI over 48 plate appearances, and with the recent demotion of Hyeseong Kim to Triple-A, he is the most likely candidate to get the starting nod at second base on Thursday.

Links

From one Japanese right-hander on the mound on Monday to another on Tuesday, Shohei Ohtani was masterful against his old team, pitching into the fifth inning while striking out 11 hitters in the Dodgers’ 3-0 loss to the Angels.

After his first full offseason to recover on both sides with the Dodgers, the benchmark for a healthy season is 25 starts for the two-way superstar, notes Courtney Hollman of MLB.com. Should he stay healthy as a part of a six-man rotation, he’s on pace to make 27 starts.

“I do see that as an important benchmark as a starting pitcher,” Ohtani said following his Arizona debut. “Ideally in a situation where everybody makes 25 starts. That’s the ideal situation.”

To little surprise, Ohtani was named as the early season favorite to win his third consecutive NL MVP award by Theo DeRosa of MLB.com.

Max Ralph of MLB.com writes about Kyle Tucker getting used to how the Dodgers celebrate hits, needing a quick 101 lesson from Miguel Rojas on the “hip-lock” celebration.