Category: Baseball

The San Diego Padres rode their momentum from a strong finish in the regular season to a two-game sweep of the Chicago Cubs in the National League Wild Card Series at Petco Park. The two teams met a season ago and engaged in a three-game series that saw the Padres score just five runs. San Diego changed that this season and scored 12 runs in two games, which included home runs from Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Gavin Sheets.

Even more impressive than the Padres offense was their pitching. Michael King set the tone in Game 1 of the series and pitched seven innings of shutout baseball with one hit allowed. That hit was an infield hit in the top of the seventh inning that Machado kept from getting to the outfield grass, but he lost the ball on the transfer from his glove to his throwing hand and was unable to make a throw to first base to keep a no-hitter intact. Nick Pivetta followed with a start in Game 2 that got him into the fourth inning, but then the game was turned over to the San Diego bullpen. The function of the team that was the most lauded throughout the season showed once again it was worthy of praise with big arms Bradgley Rodriguez, Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller delivering a win.

The Padres head to Milwaukee to take on the top seeded Brewers and Cy Young frontrunner Jacob Misiorowski. If San Diego can get similar performances from their offense and in particular their stars, and get solid contributions from the likes of Robbie Ray and Walker Buehler the Padres could have a chance to punch their ticket to the National League Championship Series.

Padres News:

• Gavin Sheets announced his presence in the postseason with a two-run blast to right field that helped the Padres get a 4-1 win to complete the sweep of the Chicago Cubs in the National League Wild Card Series.

• After a dominant showing in the NLWCS, Dennis Lin of The Athletic asks if this could be the team to get the Padres back to the World Series.

Baseball News:

• The Atlanta Braves eliminated the Philadelphia Phillies with a Game 3 win.

Good morning, LSB.

Evan Grant plays the blame game and discusses how much Ray Davis deserves for the Rangers’ failed season.

AJ Pierzynski is the latest guest on Grant’s podcast.

And MLB Pipeline names a sleeper prospect for each club’s Arizona Fall League team.

And that’s about all there is this morning. Welcome to the offseason.

Coming off back-to-back disappointing seasons -- with disappointing being an understatement when describing what the 2026 campaign was -- the Mets enter this offseason looking to get back on track.

The initial goal, which has been the same since Steve Cohentook over as owner, is to get back to the playoffs. The ultimate goal is to become a team that is in the postseason perennially. 

With that in mind, the expectation is that David Stearns and the front office will be selectively aggressive this winter via free agency while attempting to fix the trouble spots that helped do the Mets in the last two years. 

The trade market could also be fertile ground for New York, with their farm system recently fortified following their trade deadline sell-off. 

As the offseason takes shape, it will be colored by New York's existing payroll commitments for 2027 and how the books are shaping up in the years to come.

It could also be influenced by the looming lockout that is set to begin on Dec. 1, and the potential that the new CBA could usher in harsher penalties for teams that exceed the luxury tax thresholds. 

Here's how the payroll looks for next season and beyond...

SALARY COMMITTED FOR 2027

The Mets enter the offseason with roughly $255 million committed for 2027, via Cot's Contracts, which is a number that includes the $18.5 million estimated for player benefits, the money owed to zero-to-three players in both the majors and minors who are under team control, and the bonus pool for pre-arbitration players.

The above figure will go up with arbitration raises owed to 10 players, including Brett Baty, Francisco Alvarez, and Dedniel Núñez. But a handful of the arbitration-eligible group could possibly be non-tendered or traded, which would lower the total amount owed.

Of note: The $255 million total before arbitration raises includes the $42 million salary that will be owed to Bo Bichette if he opts in to the second year of his three-year contract. 

For reference, the Mets ended the 2026 season with a 40-man CBT payroll of $359.48 million.

Now off the books is the $17 million owed to Frankie Montas, whose two-year deal is up. 

Additionally, because the Mets traded or waived their notable pending free agents (Brooks Raley, David Peterson, A.J. Minter, Freddy Peralta, Clay Holmes, and Luis Robert Jr.), the only possible pending free agent on the active roster (aside from Montas) is Bichette.

The Mets are now clear of the contracts for Raley ($2 million), Peralta ($8 million), Peterson ($8.1 million), Minter ($11 million), Holmes ($12.6 million), and Robert ($20 million) that were on their books at the beginning of the season. 

WHAT WILL THE ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS MAKE?

The Mets have 10 arbitration-eligible players.

Those players (with their 2026 Mets salary in parentheses) are:

Tylor Megill ($2.5 million)
Francisco Alvarez ($2.4 million)
Reed Garrett ($1.3 million)
Mark Vientos ($813,750)
Brett Baty ($811,500)
Dedniel Núñez ($792,000)
Austin Warren ($724,128)
Cionel Perez ($504,706)
Cristian Pache ($235,294)
Christopher Morel ($175,187)

Even if the Mets tender contracts to all of the above players, their payroll would not go up dramatically -- perhaps the total arbitration figure would be around $18 million.

However, it's difficult to see them tendering contracts to Morel or Pache, and the writing seems to be on the wall when it comes to Vientos having perhaps played his last game for New York. So for the purposes of this exercise, let's put the arbitration number at $14 million.

After taking the arbitration money into account, the total New York could be on the hook for before making external additions is approximately $269 million.

HOW MUCH MONEY IS THERE TO ADD PLAYERS THIS OFFSEASON?

The Mets, after arbitration raises, would likely be above the first luxury tax threshold for the 2027 season. However, because the CBA is set to expire, the first, second, third, and fourth thresholds for 2027 and beyond (and whether those exact kind of structures will still be in play) have not yet been determined. 

For the 2026 season, the four thresholds were $244 million, $264 million, $284 million, and $304 million -- figures that had been increasing incrementally (around $3 million to $4 million for each threshold) on an annual basis.  

New York has exceeded the luxury tax five seasons in a row and (barring something very unexpected) will be doing it for a sixth straight time in 2027.

But again, the tiers and penalties for exceeding them will not be known until a new CBA is agreed to, which throws a good deal of uncertainty into the offseason for every team that is ordinarily a significant spender. 

Also of importance is that the Mets are set to get serious salary relief following the 2027 season, when the contracts for Sean Manaea, Jorge Polanco, and Kodai Senga end, which will free up roughly $60 million. So in theory, big spending this offseason could be offset a bit in a year when Manaea, Polanco, and Senga are off the books.

As far as this offseason, the free agent market is expected to include Tarik Skubal, Clay Holmes, Michael King, Seiya Suzuki,Adrian Morejon, and Japanese slugger Teruaki Sato, while the trade market could feature some intriguing starting pitching options (such as a few Mariners, given their relative glut of rotation options).

WHAT ABOUT EXTENSIONS FOR UNDER-CONTROL PLAYERS?

The Mets are in a unique position when it comes to locking up players before they reach free agency.

Because of the resources at their disposal, they can simply sign those players back once they reach free agency if they so choose. That kind of ability stands in contrast to smaller market teams like the Royals and Brewers, who have recently signed some of their core players to long-term extensions well before they were set to reach free agency -- Kansas City signed Bobby Witt Jr. to an 11-year extension after his second season, while Milwaukee inked Jackson Chourio to an eight-year contract before he even made his big league debut. 

Even for the Mets, though, it could make sense to do these early extensions every now and then. That's because there is a benefit for both sides. 

The player gets financial certainty years earlier than he otherwise would, with pre-arbitration seasons, arbitration seasons, and/or pending free agent seasons bought out and those years included in the extension. The team, if the deal works out as hoped, winds up paying less for those later arbitration years and the free agent years, and also gets certainty. 

If the Mets were to explore that kind of deal this offseason, the two most obvious players to approach would be Carson Benge and Nolan McLean.

Benge is coming off an eye-opening debut season that saw him make a serious impact on both sides of the ball.

Offensively, Benge slashed .282/.346/.430 (.776 OPS, 118 OPS+) with 20 homers, 22 doubles, three homers, 86 runs scored, and 22 steals -- becoming the first Mets rookie ever to hit at least 20 homers and steal at least 20 bases.

Defensively, Benge was a difference-maker in right field, with his arm value in the 100th percentile, his arm strength in the 99th, and his range (OAA) in the 70th. 

McLean had a tremendous first full season, posting a 3.16 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 179.2 innings while allowing just 140 hits and fanning 194 batters.

Benge and McLean are both years away from arbitration. 

THE PAYROLL SITUATION IN 2028 AND BEYOND

Here are the Mets' projected 40-man roster salary obligations from 2028 to 2030, via Cot's:

2028: $192.5 million
2029: $106.2 million
2030: $106.7 million

As is noted above, the money coming off the books following the 2027 season will provide substantial salary relief.

Beyond that, the Mets are in strong shape in both 2029 and 2030, due in large part to the deals to Bichette and Marcus Semien ending after 2028.

The Yankees are going the expected route, starting Gerrit Cole in Game 1 of the ALDS against the Rays on Saturday night in Tampa Bay.

Following dominant starts by Cam Schlittler and Max Fried in New York's Wild Card Series sweep of the Red Sox, Cole will look to keep things rolling for New York.

Cole last pitched on Sept. 23 against the Rays in the Bronx, when he allowed two runs on three hits while walking three and striking out eight in 5.2 innings.

The right-hander also fared well in his two other starts against Tampa this season.

On May 22, in what was his first start back after recovering from Tommy John surgery, Cole tossed 6.0 scoreless innings while allowing two hits, walking three, and striking out two.

On July 8, Cole allowed three runs in 6.1 innings while giving up three hits, walking one, and striking out six.

With Game 2 set for Monday in Tampa, the Yankees figure to turn to Cam Schlittler on five days of rest or Max Fried on regular (four days) rest.

This past season saw the end of Dean Kremer’s time in Baltimore, as the longest surviving member of the Manny Machado trade ended his time with the Orioles with the same frustrating inconsistency that colored his entire career. 

When it came to Dean Kremer’s role on the Orioles pitching staff, I always had the mindset of “if Dean Kremer is your 5th starter, you probably have a pretty good rotation.” The Orioles rotation heading into the 2026 season was so good (on paper, at least) that Kremer began the year at Triple-A Norfolk. 

However, he returned from Norfolk after only two starts for the Tides. An early-season injury to Zach Efflin saw Kremer immediately return to the fifth starter role in Baltimore. The 30-year-old right-hander looked strong in his first two outings of the season; in his season debut he limited the Diamondbacks to 2 earned runs over 5 innings while striking out nine. His next time out, against the Guardians, Kremer was an unlucky loser after posting a line of 6 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 2 BB and 7 Ks. 

From there, Kremer’s remaining tenure with the Orioles was largely derailed due to injury, After his start in Cleveland, he landed on the IL with a right quad strain. At first it looked like the injury would only require a short term recovery. Instead, Kremer didn’t return to the mound until June 21st and didn’t make it back to the big league roster until July 1st. 

In his first start back from injury, Kremer once again looked his best self. He guided the Orioles to victory over the White Sox in Baltimore, tossing 6 innings of one-run ball while striking out four. Little did we know that that would be the last quality start of his Orioles career. 

His next four outings in black and orange were largely disastrous. Over those final four games with the O’s, Kremer averaged less than 5 innings per start, pitched to a 9.47 ERA and gave up a .333 average with 7 home runs across 19 innings. His final start for Baltimore came in Detroit, where he gave up 8 runs in 4 innings as the O’s lost 14-0 to the Tigers. 

Four days later, Kremer became the first of five major leaguers Mike Elias & Co. traded away at the 2026 Trade Deadline. The California native was sent from Baltimore to Minnesota, who at the time sat 1.5 games ahead of the Orioles for the final AL Wild Card spot. 

At the time, the decision to trade away Kremer was viewed through a neutral lens. The O’s got back 18-year-old OF Jhomnardo Reyes, an athletic, power-first bat in the mold of a typical Mike Elias outfield prospect. Reyes immediately jumped in Baltimore’s Top 20 prospects. The decision to trade Kremer—in the moment—could also have been seen as the Orioles creating space in their rotation to acquire a level-raising starting pitcher. 

Instead, Kremer became another example of the front office selling whilst tantalizingly close to playoff contention. To make matters worse, his second start for the Twinkies came against Baltimore in Target Field. That afternoon, Kremer delivered his best start of the season, tossing 7 innings while only allowing 1 run and 1 hit and punching out seven Orioles. Whether motivated by a sense of revenge or just the excitement of facing his old teammates, Kremer immediately made the Orioles look foolish for trading him. 

The rest of his year in Minnesota was closer to what we’d come to expect during his 6+ seasons in Baltimore. In his final 8 starts of the season, Kremer pitched to a 4.04 ERA while allowing a .209 average against and striking out 39 in 42.1 IP. The right-hander did finish with a promising flourish, allowing only 2 runs and six hits over his final three starts. With one year left of team control before potentially entering free agency in 2028, Kremer should comfortably slot into the back half of Minnesota’s rotation next year. 

Kremer never had true highlight moments with the Orioles, and therefore will not be remembered as fondly as contemporaries like Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays or Anthony Santander. However, his 130 career starts are good enough for 33rd in Orioles history, while his 707.2 IP puts him just outside the Top 50 in club history. Perhaps somewhat surprisingly, Kremer’s 616 career strikeouts with the Orioles put him just behind Ben McDonald at 22nd in Orioles’ history. 

If you can separate it from the optics of selling at the deadline when only a couple of games out of a playoff spot, the decision to move on from Kremer spoke/speaks to the improved health of the Orioles pitching depth. His 4.37 career ERA in Baltimore makes him the latest in the line of starting pitchers like Jeremy Guthrie and Daniel Cabrera; professional innings eaters who every once and a while showed the ability to be something more. 

Have at it. Here’s mine.

Michael Harris II, swinging 2-0, at not even a strike or borderline pitch, and absolutely creaming it for a three-run homer. It upended narratives, even narratives that some attempted to apply postgame. Aaron Nola noted the Braves didn’t chase. Well, not exactly: they didn’t chase sometimes, and Harris did chase, and delivered what ended up serving as a knockout blow even though there were still eight innings to play.

Yes, Harris and Ozzie Albies will chase a lot. No, they don’t fit the mold of a hackneyed “professional hitter” who draws walks and shoots liners over the infield. But, like Albies said earlier this season, when you crush, it’s the best feeling in the world. And that’s what they did last night. But Harris did it swinging at a pitch that you might say he shouldn’t have even swung at, and that’s awesome.

I hope everyone remembers what led to this win going forward.

After fighting for a one-day respite, the Phillies went down relatively quietly in their winner take all Game 3 with the Braves. Aaron Nola was given the start and was tasked with at least giving the Phillies three solid innings, but he couldn’t even escape the first without giving up a back breaking three-run homer. The debate started to rage over whether Zack Wheeler should’ve started in his stead, but he too gave up a two-run bomb of his own pitching in relief to make the whole thing pointless. Really, the pitching was moot because once again, the Phillies offense could not get anything going, this time against an Atlanta bullpen game that featured three shutout innings from opener Ray Kerr.

This is going to be a long offseason where the Phillies will face numerous painful questions. First off, they have to find a permanent manager, whether that be Alex Cora or not. Then they have to find some way to inject life into the 30th ranked offense by OPS+. They have to find a way to build a bullpen that has more than two reliable arms in it. They will have to determine if their younger players such as Andrew Painter and Justin Crawford as well as prospects Aidan Miller and Gage Wood are in their long-term plans or not. Finally, they may have to come to terms with the hardest thing of all: the possibility that some of their stars are no longer the MVP caliber players they were in the past but rather All-Star type contributors at best.

And all of that isn’t even taking into account the impending lockout that threatens to wipe out most of the offseason and some or all of the 2027 regular season. There’s no telling exactly what state baseball will be in when the Phillies next take the field.

So, where do the Phillies go from here?

The Arizona Cardinals (1-2-0) have the opportunity to get back to even in the standings against the New York Football Giants, who are struggling at the quarterback position. Starter Jaxson Dart is out for the year, and his replacement, journeyman Jameis Winston, is not playing well at all. The game is played at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Arizona is in need of a “W,” or else this season will begin to unravel early in the year.

The Week 4 game between the Cardinals and Giants will air on CBS and Paramount+ at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday.

Announcers: Spero Dedes, Adam Archuleta, Aditi Kinkhabwala (sideline reporter)

Radiocoverage:

• Arizona Cardinals Radio: Arizona Sports 98.7 FM (English flagship for the Cardinals)
• New York Football Giants Radio: WFAN 101.9 FM / 660 AM (flagship for the Giants)
• Spanish Broadcast: Que Buena 1280 AM
• Satellite & Streaming: NFL+

SiriusXM Channels:

• Giants Streaming Channel: 823
• Giants Radio Channel: 199

Blue: Cardinals @ Giants

Red: Patriots @ Bills

Green: Jaguars @ Bengals

Yellow: Titans @ Ravens

Happy Friday, everyone! With all eyes on the MLB postseason and which teams will be advancing from the Wild Card series, there hasn’t been a lot of Tigers news to report on. We share below a story on some of the Tigers, like Gleyber Torres and Jack Flaherty, who will be entering free agency this offseason as they’re unlikely to sign extensions with the Tigers.

We also take a look at plenty of stories emerging from the postseason, from temperamental Astros fans turning on their own team, to Sonny Gray’s opinions about being pulled early from his Wild Card start, to wondering if the Yankees are the only team in the postseason doing roster building right. Lots to get into, so we’re just going to dive right in.

Detroit Tigers News

• Gleyber Torres and Jack Flaherty are among the Tigers who will face the free agency market this offseason.
• John Peck will be heading to the AFL.

MLB News

• How the Yankees bested the Red Sox to advance to the ALDS.
• Were the Yankees the only club to set their Wild Card roster right?
• Things are looking rough on the road ahead for the Orioles thanks to persistent injuries.
• How the Padres advanced to the NLDS.
• The White Sox might not have needed divine intervention to get to the ALDS.
• Which parks have the best home-field advantage in the postseason?
• How are the GM and CEO of the Blue Jays feeling about those Vladimir Guerrero Jr. comments?
• Some of the best moments from Wild Card history.
• Building the ultimate postseason pitching roster.
• How things got worse for the Red Sox after they returned to their clubhouse after losing the Wild Card series.
• How to watch SI’s original Shohei Ohtani documentary.
• How the Yankees proved they could win, even without Aaron Judge.
• Key takeaways from the White Sox series sweep.
• Astros fans weren’t shy about voicing their disapproval of their team when Houston was swept out of the Wild Card series.
• The Diamondbacks will be keeping Torey Lovullo around as manager.
• Sony Gray shared his displeasure at being pulled from his Wild Card start after only 70 pitches.
• A judge has ruled that rooftops surrounding Wrigley Field cannot sell tickets to watch Cubs’ games.
• Why a rigid bullpen blueprint was the undoing of the Red Sox. ($)
• How the ABS system is already changing October baseball. ($)
• Is this the last year of the Dodgers’ dynasty? ($)
• Willson Contreras shares his feelings about Big Data Baseball.

• Impossible not to like this guy.

• This post just called me “old” in a half-dozen different ways.

Baseball is a game of numbers. It’s played on the field, with balls and bats and gloves, but every action, decision, and outcome is measured by a number. Those numbers are presented to us during broadcasts, in gambling ads, and by people like me on Twitter and in pieces here on OTM. Most of the numbers we see are presented without context.

Just this week, there was plenty of chatter about how Payton Tolle has reverse splits and performs better against righties than he does against lefties. If you say that Tolle stats against righties are superior to those against lefties, you are correct. If you claim that opponents should start lefties against Tolle for that reason, citing that stat as evidence, you’d be a little bit off base.

In short, Tolle’s stats against lefties were worse than those against righties because he only throws to the best left-handed hitters. If he faced a lineup of nine lefties, he’d rack up strikeouts and groundball outs because of the pitches he has at his disposal. Tolle isn’t the point of this piece, though, so I digress.

Another example of this came after the final game of the season. The Red Sox bullpen got caved in by the Yankees, and the season ended in embarrassing fashion. During the postmortem, Sonny Gray, who was pulled after just 4.2 innings and 70 pitches, expressed his displeasure at not being allowed to continue. He said that he’s the best pitcher in the American League at facing a lineup for a third time.

His numbers facing hitters for a third time are in fact excellent: .515 OPS against, 21.6% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate, and a .180 batting average in 162 plate appearances across 28 games this season. Despite this, Gray wasn’t allowed to see Cody Bellinger for a third time; Erik Miller came in and gave up a run, and the game snowballed from there, ending the Red Sox season.

If you read my work, you know I like numbers. I do my best to provide context and try to blend the stats with on-field applications, but I admit that I tend to believe what the numbers say even if they go against conventional wisdom. Those choices that go against conventional wisdom have come to be known as “analytics”. If people don’t agree with something, they blame “analytics” without knowing what information was actually used in that decision.

In this case, the consensus was that Gray was removed because “analytics” say that seeing a lineup for the third time is a disadvantage. The numbers presented above disagree with that sentiment, but the Boston Red Sox, who pay people to research these types of things, aren’t making decisions based on slash lines in 150 plate appearance samples. Still, the decision was, at least in some part, motivated by statistics.

This piece is not in defense of Chad Tracy, Craig Breslow, or anyone else who might have had a hand in the decision-making process or game planning. In fact, I’ll go as far as to say that I staunchly disagree with the decision. I didn’t have a suite of statistics at my disposal at the time, but I thought Gray had a better chance of getting the out than Miller. I actually messaged the rest of the OTM staff and said: “So this is insane, right?” Before the game, I published a piece on how the Red Sox needed Sonny Gray to go deep into the game, for the sake of both Game 2 and a potential Game 3. Even after looking at the numbers that I’ll share momentarily, I disagree with the decision, although that’s easy to do in hindsight.

Instead of supporting or tearing down the decision, what I’m trying to do here is reverse-engineer the thought process and provide some context, because despite what sports talk radio or faceless Twitter accounts might tell you, it is much more nuanced than “third time through the order bad”. Let’s do it.

I’ll set the scene. It’s the fifth inning with the Yankees leading, 1-0. Trent Grisham has reached on a single to start the inning, and swapped places on the bases with Austin Wells, who grounded out to second base but beat the throw from Trevor Story to break up the double play. Ryan McMahon struck out on a good sweeper, and Ben Rice singled on a hard ground ball through the infield to move Wells up to third base. After 70 pitches and one earned run, Gray walked off the mound.

The first thing I’ll look at is Bellinger’s other at-bats against Gray. In his first trip to the plate, he roped a first-pitch sinker to Nick Sogard, who made a great pick to get the out. His second time up, he grounded out again, this time after fouling off three two-strike pitches and spitting on a good sweeper to his back foot. If you’re judging based on those two matchups alone, I could understand the decision to not give Bellinger a third crack at Gray. Bellinger looked like he was seeing the ball well.

Next, let’s look at how Gray approached the lineup to that point.

Against the eight lefties in the Yankees’ lineup, Gray used his four-seam and sinker a combined 59% of the time. The rest of his arsenal was made up of 12 sweepers, 10 curveballs, and three changeups. The fastballs were in the zone (~60% zone rate on both the four-seam and the sinker), while all three of his secondary pitches returned zone rates between 20% and 33%. While that might seem intuitive — fastballs in the zone, putaway pitches below it — that’s not always the case for Gray. He’s usually willing to flip his curveball in for called strikes, and occasionally does the same with his sweeper. On Wednesday, the plan was clearly to attack with fastballs for strikes, and breaking balls below the zone.

The Yankees’ lefties had the second-highest hard-hit rate against in-zone breaking balls from righties this season, as well as the seventh-highest barrel rate. They had the second-highest whiff rate, but Gray’s breaking balls didn’t miss bats in the zone this season. With those statistics in mind, it’s likely that Gray wasn’t going to change his game plan.

Now let’s look at the fastballs. The third time through the lineup, their performance seriously suffers. Entering the postseason, he threw his four-seam and sinker each about 18% of the time. He also used his cutter 15% of the time, but didn’t throw a single cutter to lefties on Wednesday and used it sparingly in his final start of the regular season, so it appeared to be removed from his game plan. The fastballs that he did use weren’t nearly as effective as they were early in games. The shape and velocity held, but the results did not. His four-seam ideal contact rate jumped from 40% to 56%, as the pitch found the middle of the plate often.

The sinker returned weak contact, but that was likely because the zone rate dropped from 60% the first two times through to 40% the third time through. Because of this, the called strike rate plummeted, and the strike rate fell to near 50%.

His breaking stuff wasn’t much better. The curveball had a huge swinging strike rate and chase rate, but when hitters did connect, it was hammered to the tune of a 67% ideal contact rate. The sweeper, his best whiff pitch, saw its chase rate drop 15% the third time through, thanks to bigger misses off the plate.

Bellinger is an excellent breaking ball hitter. Gray’s fastballs lose effectiveness later in games, and hitters don’t expand the zone as frequently against his sweepers. If those are your cards, you probably want to fold that hand in favor of another. The card that Tracy chose to play is a whole other can of worms, but there was a case for Gray to be removed.

If you read this and thought, “the analytics have gone too far, who cares that Gray’s sweeper is less effective the third time through the order it’s playoff baseball you pitch with your nuts not your arm blah blah blah”, I don’t blame you. As I wrote this, I questioned if I was too in the weeds myself, and still would have probably rolled the dice with Gray. Regardless of whether you agree or disagree with Gray’s early exit, I hope this provided some insight into what the team might have been thinking, because it really is deeper than blanket truths discovered by “analytics” that have been parroted 1,000 times by people who think Billy Beane ruined baseball.

When you’ve waited 32 years for your one epic career moment, you let it all out — censors be damned.

Braves journeyman Ray Kerr unleashed a spew of happy f-bombs while celebrating his 3 1/3 innings of no-run ball in the Braves’ 6-2 win over the Phillies in Game 3 of the NL wild-card series.

The southpaw served as the opener for the elimination game in his first career postseason outing and allowed just one hit and walked one batter to set the game off on the right foot for Atlanta.

“Man, starting a game and him closing it out? What the f–k, that’s coolest feeling ever,” Kerr told Braves Vision. “And him coming to me after the game and congratulating me. F–king blessing.”

Kerr’s teammates drenched him in alcohol while he provided the second part of that answer, leading to him being asked how the champagne feels.

“F–king cold,” Kerr said, which elicited a chuckle from the interviewer. “I’ve been freezing all night.”

While Thursday’s win may be remembered more for Chris Sale pitching 1 1/3 innings to close out the game just two days after his Game 1 start or Michael Harris II’s three-run first-inning homer off Aaron Nola that set Truist Field ablaze, the Braves don’t advance to the NLDS without Kerr.

Kerr had appeared in a grand total of 48 MLB games and just nine this season — his only outings over the last two years — before the Braves tapped him to serve as an opener.

Kerr’s mastery allowed him to last into the fourth inning in a 47-pitch outing, which lessened the length they need from presumed bulk pitcher Grant Holmes.

He exited the game with a 3-0 lead, and held the Phillies’ top-three hitters of Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper to an 0-for-5 showing with one walk.

“I was focused from the moment I woke up,” Kerr said. “I was like we’re going to put some 0s up and get a W.”

Kerr’s journey to this moment is one filled with highs and lows, with the veteran actually working at a 7-Eleven before he eventually made his MLB debut in 2022.

He will now have a part in Braves lore for helping the NL East champs finally beat the Phillies in a postseason series.

Atlanta will now face the Dodgers in the NLDS, beginning Saturday night in Los Angeles.

“It felt great. I don’t got much on that,” he said in reference to his past. “But it was fun. It was a journey. I’ve dreamed about stuff like this. For it to actually happen, I still haven’t even processed yet. We’re just going to get after it tomorrow. Hopefully we can win the next series, and yeah.”

Donnie Baseball did an excellent job in Philadelphia to save the Phillies’ season this year – and now he’s being shown the door. 

Mattingly will not be brought back as the Phillies’ skipper after he took over midseason, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported after Thursday’s 6-2 Braves victory in Game 3 of the NL wild-card series.

The Phillies and Mattingly will reportedly announce a mutual parting of ways and give the former Yankee great a chance to stay with the team in an advisory role. 

After taking over a 9-19 Phillies team that looked like a disaster when led by Rob Thomson, Mattingly did a stellar job to right the ship and lead the team to a playoff berth.

He led the team to a 79-55 regular-season record before the 1-2 postseason showing, and he knows his future is far from certain. 

“It’s not the time to talk about anything like that,” Mattingly said after the game. “I’m not concerned about myself in this situation. I want the Phillies to do what they need to do to set themselves up for success. Yeah, I’m not really — it’s like, my stuff doesn’t really matter.”

Mattingly said hasn’t talked to Phillies general manager Dave Dombrowski about the pending offseason.

“No, I haven’t talked about it, haven’t worried about it,” Mattingly continued. “Just trying to win games, honestly, and put us in the best spot to win games and move forward from there.”

The Phillies’ team construction is the real problem, considering they have a bunch of major free-agent signings who are getting older while on big contracts with many years remaining.

Trea Turner represents what looks like one of the worst contracts in all of baseball with seven years left on his contract as he enters his age-34 season. 

Bryce Harper and Aaron Nola are also entering their age-34 seasons as a part of an aging core that may need a youth injection.

If Mattingly does depart, expect the Phillies to pursue fired Red Sox manager Alex Cora to be their skipper.

The Phillies actually offered Cora the position earlier this year before turning to Mattingly.

If you have been a Camden Chat regular over the years, you are probably familiar with our annual contest. Each year in March, we post a series of questions to get you thinking about the season ahead. This past March, we had 282 of Camden Chat’s finest submit their answers to 30 questions, and we had a pretty large group of first place finishers.

With 19 answers correct, congratulations go out to Melvinmora, J(O’s)elskil, OldOsFan, DJDrP, and PaulFolk! You five have proven your brilliance and may commence gloating immediately. One of these winners is my husband! I’ll let you guess who.

Eight entrants had 18 correct answers, including our boss Mark Brown, AKA Eat More Esskay. Fun fact, the worse the Orioles do in a season, the higher Mark scores in this contest.* As for me, I finished in 63rd place with 15 correct.

*I did not check my work on this over multiple seasons, but you have to admit it sounds right.

To see the full results and find your score, click over to the results spreadsheet. It is sorted by number correct, so the easiest way is to CTRL+F your name. Check it out and let us know how you did in the comments!

The full questions and answers are below. This year was tough, as so many answers brought back all the troubles the team had. But on the bright side, next year our expectations will be so low that it’ll be easier to be pleased with the results.

Which will be higher?

1. Innings pitched by Shane Baz or Grayson Rodriguez? Baz – 179.2; Grayson – 98.2 – Baz was a vast improvement over Rodriguez. No only did he pitch 81 more innings, but his ERA was 1.91 runs lower. (97.5% answered correctly)
2. Games played by guys named Tyler or guys named Jackson? Jackson – 200 (Hollday – 98, Jeremiah – 102), Tyler – 128 (O’Neill – 85, Wells – 43). This race was actually tied about halfway through the season before Team Jackson pulled away. (72% answered correctly)
3. Saves by Ryan Helsley or starts by Zach Eflin? Helsley – 8, Eflin – 1. Both of these answers make me sad. (84% answered correctly)
4. OPS+ for Pete Alonso or Kyle Schwarber? Alonso – 149, Schwarber – 128. We love you, Pete! (51.4%)
5. Colton Cowser K% or Cedric Mullins stolen bases? Cowser – 30.9%, Mullins – 21. Cowser struck out at the rate we pretty much expected. Mullins had a poor year on the basepaths. He stole 21 bases and was caught 10 times. (81.2%)
6. Taylor Ward bWAR or Trevor Rogers ERA? Rogers – 4.03, Ward – 2.7. Rogers’s number was higher than I expected and Ward’s was about what I expected. (47.2%)
7. Chris Bassitt HR allowed or Coby Mayo HR hit? Mayo – 24, Bassitt – 10. Next year we’ll probably do an O/U on Mayo homers. (65.6%)
8. Dean Kremer BB or Blaze Alexander GS? Alexander – 74, Kremer – 11. This one was lopsided by both Blaze’s unexpectedly good play and Dean’s unexpected trade. (73%)
9. OBP by Dylan Beavers or Ramón Laureano? Beavers – .307, Laureano – .286. Beavers essentially replaced Laureano in the lineup, and proved a better hitter this year. It was a low bar to cross; Laureano was not only bad at the plate, but he missed about 2/3 of the season with injury. (60.6%)
10. Playoff games at Camden Yards or Orioles with 30+ HR? 30+ homers – 1 (Pete!); Playoff games – 0. This one is a bummer (61%)

Over/Under

This section is pretty depressing.

1. Gunnar Henderson SLG: .4995 – Under – .404 (21.6%)
2. Orioles wins: 85 ½ – Under – 79 (12.8%)
3. Number of starting pitchers used: 12 ½ – Under – 10 (79.8%)
4. Jackson Holliday OPS: .7245 – Under – .640 (42.6%)
5. Kyle Bradish ERA: 2.755 – Over – 4.12 (74.5%)

Yes/No

This section stumped people as a whole. Look at those low percentages of right answers!

1. Will Jordan Westburg play a Major League game in 2026? No (27.7%)
2. Will Samuel Basallo make >50 starts at catcher? Yes (69.1%)
3. Will Adley Rutschman finish with at least 2 bWAR? No – 1.9 (6%)
4. Will the team ERA be under 4.00? No – 4.08 (41.1%)
5. Will Ryan Mountcastle be in the organization on Sept 27th? Yes (19.5%)

Multiple Choice(71/3%)

1. Who will make the second-most starts at first base? Alonso – 142, Mayo – 13, Basallo – 4, Mountcastle – 2 (17.7%)
2. Which pitcher listed will make the most starts? Brandon Young – 28, Trey Gibson – 8, Cade Povich – 7, Albert Suarez – 0. Young will no longer be lumped in with this tier of pitcher. (8.2%)
3. Which of the following prospects will have the most stolen bases in the minors? Enrique Bradfield – 44, Aron Estrada – 8, Vance Honeycutt – 38, Nate George – 15. Estrada’s steals went down as his power went up. George only played 20 games and still had 15 steals. (71.3%)
4. Against which AL East team will the Orioles have the most wins? Rays 8, Jays – 7, Red Sox – 4, Yankees – 3. The Orioles had a winning record against the team with the most wins in the AL. Baseball is funny. (59.6%)
5. Which relief pitcher will have the most losses? Helsley – 4, Wells – 2, Akin – , Cano – 3, Somebody else (Wolfram) – 4 (33.7%). If you chose Helsley or Wolfram, you got the points. Considering he missed so much time with injury, how did Helsley end up leading this category?

For the first time in contest history, we included questions about yearly awards, which are not announced until after the postseason. This was a mistake on our part, because the Orioles are not getting any awards. The questions are on the spreadsheet linked at the top of the page but have no scores. IF someone ends up winning (lol!) I’ll come back and issue an addendum.

Thank you to everyone who played this year! I hope you had fun and we’ll see you in the spring for the 2027 contest.

The Atlanta Braves punched their ticket to the National League Division Series after defeating the Philadelphia Phillies 6-2 on Thursday night. Ray Kerr made his postseason debut, giving the Braves everything they asked for and more. He went 3.1 innings and allowed just one hit. He walked one and struck out two. 

The Braves’ bats came up huge, too, and Atlanta took control early after Michael Harris II’s three-run shot in the first inning. Ozzie Albies and Matt Olson homered later in the game to tack on some insurance.

Up next, the Braves head to LA and go toe-to-toe with the Dodgers. The series gets underway Saturday afternoon.

MLB News:

Cleveland Guardians right-hander Colin Holderman will miss the remainder of the postseason. He is scheduled to have surgery on his right wrist.

From the Feed:

Cast your vote for Braves Player of the Game here!

Major League Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred has a rule: don’t talk about negative subjects or collective bargaining topics (one and the same, really) until after the trophy in his name is hoisted. Sorry Rob, but to paraphrase the Clown Prince of Crime: “the only sensible way to live in this world is without rules—and tonight I’m gonna break your one rule”.

Over the course of this 2026 MLB season, I checked in on some key topics regarding the upcoming labor negotiations (especially as they relate to the salary cap/floor issue)…

• In April, I analyzed team franchise values and how rising valuations haven’t solved widespread financial inequity within MLB
• In July, geographical disparities were dissected, showing further gaps between rich and poor in MLB
• August brought a straight-up poll (taking a lockout/strike off the table) that showed an overwhelming majority of Twinkie Town readers supporting a cap/floor salary structure in MLB

We’ve now reached the final phase of this series: how much Major League Baseball are you willing to lose for cap/floor progress? Per Hamlet: “Therein lies the rub”. One one hand, it’s clear the sustainability of baseball’s economics is heading in the wrong direction. On the other hand, MLB just saw its first four-year attendance growth period since 2004-2007. It is somehow both the perfect time and worst time for a lockout or strike.

To quote another cinematic sensation: “it’s paradoxical…yet it works”.

One final thing to get out of the way: the worst possible lockout/strike scenario is a prolonged absence where nothing materially changes (see: 1994). I’m not even including the option in this poll because of how depressing that would be. So, assume in all choices that progress was made on a cap/floor salary structure.

I think all the qualifications are on the table now. Without further ado…