As the Mets enter the offseason, they'll be facing a familiar challenge: put together a team that can get them back to the playoffs for the first time since 2024.
David Stearnsand the front office failed in that regard last offseason, due in part to the drastic changes that were made to the roster and coaching staff. There were other things at play, including long-term injuries to Francisco Lindor and Clay Holmes, some worst-case scenarios playing out, and an over-reliance on bounce backs.
This time around, the Mets will almost certainly have much less turnover, but that doesn't mean the overall result in 2026 wasn't an abject failure.
New York had a 34-31 record after the All-Star break, which was a big improvement after things spun out of control in the first half and led to a trade deadline sell-off.
But the most important developments for the Mets after their dismal start? The emergence of Carson Benge and A.J. Ewing, the impressive return of Christian Scott, the moxie and performance of Zac Thornton, and some good late-season signs from Jonah Tong.
The above should give the Mets confidence that they're in solid shape when it comes to their lineup and a chunk of the starting rotation. They have an emerging young core to complement their more established stars, and potentially have high-upside players coming soon from the upper levels of the minors. But serious help is still needed this winter.
Specifically, the Mets need to add external help at first base, address the DH spot, bolster the bullpen with multiple new arms (including a back end option), and -- most importantly -- find a pitcher who profiles at the very top of the rotation.
In both 2025 and 2026, the Mets were done in, due in large part to not having enough starting pitching depth. And it can be argued that they left themselves short one legitimate starter both times. That can't happen again, so New York should be focused on pairing a new prospective ace with another addition who profiles in the middle or back of the rotation.
About that ace ... it's not difficult to figure out that it should be Tarik Skubal.
In one of the weakest free agent classes in recent memory, Skubal stands out even more than he ordinarily would.
Fresh off back-to-back Cy Young awards, the 29-year-old Skubal posted a 2.72 ERA (2.51 FIP) and 0.96 WHIP while walking just 1.5 per nine innings and striking out 186 batters in 158.2 innings in 2026.
Skubal's season was briefly interrupted by NanoScope surgery on his pitching elbow that kept him out of action from April 30 through June 13. But he continued to be dominant upon his return. After having a 2.70 ERA (2.11 FIP) over his first seven starts, Skubal had a 2.73 ERA (2.66 FIP) in the 19 starts he made post-surgery, with 10 of them coming after he was dealt to the Dodgers at the trade deadline.
During Stearns' end-of-season news conference on Monday at Citi Field, he was asked multiple times about the Mets' offseason plan for adding pitching, but unsurprisingly didn't offer much when asked in a roundabout way about a possible Skubal pursuit.
"I do think it is necessary for us to add to our rotation," Stearns said. "We can do that in a variety of different ways. We've talked about this plenty before -- you'd always love to add to the top of your rotation, any team would love to do that -- over the long term, what we need to do is develop pitchers at the top of our rotation, and I think we are proving we can do that, and we'll continue to do that."
While Stearns refused to make any declarations about the type of pitcher the Mets would go after, it is pointless to read into that.
For one, Skubal is still under contract with the Dodgers, and no executive is going to talk about going after a player who is on another team.
Second, and even more importantly, no exec is going to tip his or her hand entirely and risk wrecking leverage ahead of possible negotiations.
While Stearns (smartly) won't say it, I will: The Mets should make Skubal the centerpiece of their offseason plan, using the resources at their disposal to add one of the most talented pitchers in the sport to slot in front of Nolan McLean.
The Mets' biggest need this offseason is at the top of their rotation, with Skubal a nearly perfect way to fill that need. And Skubal will cost only money, since the midseason trade from Detroit to Los Angeles makes him ineligible for a qualifying offer and the draft pick compensation it would've required from any team that signed him.
When discussing Skubal and the Mets, it's obviously instructive to consider Stearns' philosophy when it comes to signing pitchers to long-term deals. Specifically, he has not shown much interest in signing pitchers in their late-20s or 30s to those kind of pacts -- and that philosophy is generally a valid one.
For every long-term, big-money deal to a pitcher 29 or older that works out (Max Scherzer's seven-year deal with the Nationals looks incredible in retrospect, and the Yankees' deal for Max Fried is aging well), you can point to a whole bunch that didn't or currently aren't (Patrick Corbin, Jacob deGrom, Jordan Zimmermann, Felix Hernandez, Corbin Burnes).
As far as how Stearns has operated in the past, it's fair to throw what he did in Milwaukee out the window given the payroll constraints he was working under.
But except for a serious pursuit of then-25-year-old Yoshinobu Yamamoto ahead of the 2024 season, Stearns' main forays into the free agent starting pitching market with the Mets have been measured:
Sean Manaea: Three years, $75 million
Clay Holmes: Three years, $38 million
Frankie Montas: Two years, $34 million
Luis Severino: One year, $13 million
Griffin Canning: One year, $4.25 million
Of those signings, Holmes was the biggest success as the Mets turned him back into a starter after he spent years in relief. But that success resulted in Holmes being set to opt out after the second season of his contract, which led to New York trading him at the deadline.
During his time leading the Mets' baseball operations, Stearns has been reluctant to offer deals to starting pitchers (except Yamamoto) that exceed three years. When that is your philosophy, the risk is obviously lower. But sometimes a calculated risk is needed.
When it comes to Skubal, there is risk. In addition to the minor surgery he had this season, Skubal underwent flexor tendon surgery in 2022 and had Tommy John surgery in 2017.
Skubal is also likely to receive the biggest deal ever for a starting pitcher when it comes to average annual value. Maybe his age (30 when next season begins) and yearly value of his deal will make the years easier to stomach, but something like $400 million for eight years is easy to imagine.
There's also the looming lockout and new CBA to consider.
While it's difficult to envision the players caving on a hard salary cap, it's fair to believe the new CBA will include stiffer penalties for teams that exceed the luxury tax thresholds.
But even after considering all of that, it's still reasonable to conclude that the Mets should go after Skubal with gusto -- that he should be the exception to Stearns' rule, maybe with a slight nudge from owner Steve Cohen.
Things could always go sideways, as they often do with long-term deals for older starting pitchers. But there's no reason to think Skubal won't be exceptional for the first half of any deal he signs, which would also theoretically line up with a World Series window the Mets will hope to be entering.
When you look at Skubal, who combines one of the best arsenals in baseball with perhaps the best command in baseball (and whose metrics look like this), the biggest risk for the Mets would be not going all-in on him.
