After a year of being bombarded with information about the lack of competitive balance in baseball, the 2026 World Series will feature the Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers. It’s quite the twist from a sport that has made a relentless case that only big market teams can win in the Postseason, but baseball will always baseball and this year’s curveball is the first World Series since 1980 where a team who has never won before is guaranteed to hoist the Commissioner’s Trophy at the end of the day.
It does seem worth clarifying the terms of what we mean by a “small market.” After all, according to the Sports Business Journal the Tampa-St. Petersburg media market is the 11th largest media market in the country despite the Rays fielding a team with the 28th largest payroll in baseball according to Spotrac. Meanwhile, Milwaukee boasts the 19th ranked payroll in MLB in the smallest media market in MLB. It’s all rather complicated as you can see here:
Team
Payroll
Payroll Rk
Media Market Rk
Postseason 2026?
# of Postseason Appearances since 2017
World Series Wins since 2017
New York Mets
$346,736,805
1
1
N
2
0
Los Angeles Dodgers
$339,319,244
2
2
Y
10
3
New York Yankees
$308,336,780
3
1
Y
9
0
4th Tier Luxury Tax
$304,000,000
n/a
Philadelphia Phillies
$291,951,676
4
5
Y
5
0
3rd Tier Luxury Tax
$284,000,000
n/a
Toronto Blue Jays
$276,130,679
5
N
4
0
2nd Tier Luxury Tax
$264,000,000
n/a
Atlanta Braves
$262,962,842
6
7
Y
8
1
Chicago Cubs
$249,319,956
7
3
Y
5
0
1st Tier Luxury Tax
$244,000,000
n/a
Houston Astros
$239,763,783
8
6
Y
9
2
San Diego Padres
$218,252,715
9
30
Y
5
0
Boston Red Sox
$207,988,016
10
10
Y
5
1
Detroit Tigers
$202,081,991
11
14
N
2
0
Arizona Diamondbacks
$192,670,027
12
12
N
2
0
Texas Rangers
$191,262,798
13
4
N
1
1
San Francisco Giants
$190,174,131
14
9
N
1
1
Los Angeles Angels
$182,509,023
15
2
N
0
0
Seattle Mariners
$169,556,014
16
13
N
2
0
Baltimore Orioles
$167,039,211
17
29
N
2
0
Kansas City Royals
$150,429,892
18
35
N
1
0
Milwaukee Brewers
$146,206,320
19
39
Y
8
0
Cincinnati Reds
$128,223,748
20
38
N
2
0
Colorado Rockies
$121,526,751
21
17
N
2
0
Minnesota Twins
$115,748,036
22
16
N
4
0
Pittsburgh Pirates
$106,728,501
23
28
N
0
0
Chicago White Sox
$103,330,141
24
3
Y
3
0
Washington Nationals
$101,639,888
25
8
N
2
1
Athletics
$98,948,812
26
20
N
3
0
St. Louis Cardinals
$96,396,498
27
24
N
4
0
Tampa Bay Rays
$95,615,469
28
11
Y
6
0
Miami Marlins
$83,298,123
29
18
N
2
0
Cleveland Guardians
$74,459,014
30
19
Y
7
0
Or maybe it isn’t all that complicated. There has been Postseason success at the top of this table (the Dodgers) in the middle of this table (the Astros, Red Sox, Rangers and, begrudgingly, the Brewers) and towards the bottom of this table (the Nationals, Rays, Guardians and, as much as it pains me, the Cardinals). There are small market teams spending a lot of money relative to their actual, literal, media market size and teams spending a fraction of what you’d expect relative to their market. Some of those teams are winning. Some of those teams are losing.
Perhaps it’s more about how effectively teams use the resources they have than a total amount of spending by any individual team. To that end, a number of front office watchers have been compiling data about the size of R&D departments and/or scouting departments across the league that have led to a number of interesting conversations on social media:
Took a stab at this. See thread for sourcing & explanation of discrepancies.
I think only the tails matter: ATH, ARI, ATL, COL are low (not good!). TBR, NYY, NYM, DET, CLE are high (good!).
As Lance Brozdowski notes in the above thread, it’s a little complicated to just pull these results. Some teams have better visibility into the size and roles in their departments than others, including the Cubs, who were one of the big movers as people honed in on this particular metric.
But again, this doesn’t overlay with MLB Postseason success or failure either. Yes, the perennially successful (although still zero rings to show for it) Rays are at or near the top of both lists, but the Braves and Astros are near the bottom.
It’s enough to make you wonder if success in the October is just a crapshoot in baseball. Admittedly, a crapshoot you have a much better chance of being a part of if you’re deploying resources wisely, but a crapshoot nonetheless.
One thing that hasn’t changed this Postseason: ticket prices to the Fall Classic are outrageous, especially in Milwaukee where they’ve been waiting 44 years for a chance to play in the World Series. Getting into a World Series game in Tampa Bay or Milwaukee is going to set you back some cash, regardless of the spending habits of the team you’re cheering for:
Has there ever been a greater disparity between regular-season and World Series ticket prices?
The Brewers' World Series get-in price is now 125x their typical regular-season get-in.
When the MLB season began in February, few predicted the final two teams standing in October would be the Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers. While many will frame this as an old-school Fall Classic matchup, these clubs are both powered by two of the largest scouting and analytics departments in baseball. Though they emphasize contact and speed on the field, the Rays and Brewers have long been at the forefront of pitch design, tech integration and data-driven strategies.
Follow along with all our team’s bets in the Bet Tracker.
World Series Betting Preview
For only the sixth time in the Wild Card era, the top team from each league will clash in the World Series. Even more remarkable, this marks the first time since 1980 that two franchises both chasing their very first World Series title will face off, guaranteeing a milestone moment no matter who emerges victorious in this strength versus strength matchup. It all sets up a truly historic Fall Classic.
Bookmakers opened the Brewers around a -160 favorite, which implies a 61.54% win probability. While I expected Milwaukee to be favored, I figured we’d see an opener closer to -125 (55.56% implied win probability). Not only did bookmakers disagree with me, but the market has as well – we’ve seen the Brewers get bet all the way up to -175/-185. As of now, I haven’t bet a side in this series, and I’m not sure I will. While I’ve fired on a couple of series props that I’ll share, I’ve had much more success betting props game by game this regular season and postseason.
Offensively, these clubs have similar approaches and results. Neither team’s philosophy is to continuously sell out at the dish; instead, they rely on putting the ball in play and utilizing speed on the basepaths. They’re both in the bottom 10 in home runs – Tampa cranked 169 (22nd) and the Brewers launched 152 (29th) – but both rank top five in stolen bases and wRC+. One of the bigger differences in their offense is their strikeout rate: Milwaukee ranked 14th at 22%, while the Rays posted the lowest punchout rate in the majors at 18.8%. Overall, the Brewers averaged the second-most runs per game (5.09) and led the league in scoring at home at 5.49 runs per game, while Tampa averaged 4.51 runs per game, ranking 12th in MLB.
On the pitching side, we’re expecting a lower-scoring series as game one opens with a full-game total of six.
Milwaukee is led by 24-year-old runaway Cy Young favorite Jacob Misiorowski. Misiorowski led the majors in punchouts with 252 and posted a 1.80 ERA while going 16-5 in regular-season starts (where the Brewers went 22-8 overall). Milwaukee is 24-8 in his games if you include the postseason, despite the fact that he hasn’t been asked to pitch deep into outings. While the Rays’ bats boast the lowest strikeout rate in the majors, they’ll be facing a Brewers staff that posted the best K-rate in baseball at 25.8%.
Rosters and rotations haven’t been announced yet, but I’m expecting the Brewers to roll out the following rotation:
1. Jacob Misiorowski
2. Logan Henderson
3. Robert Gasser
4. Some combination of: Dustin May/Shane Drohan/Bullpen
Drew Rasmussen has been the Rays’ ace, posting the seventh-best FIP in the majors at 2.71. Rasmussen went 16-5 for Tampa, and the Rays went 21-9 overall in his starts. Unlike Misiorowski, the Rays have gotten real length out of Rasmussen this postseason. He’s thrown 21.0 innings across three starts with a 1.29 ERA, leading Tampa to two wins in those three outings. One of the biggest surprises of this playoff run has been Kevin Cash’s willingness to push his starters deeper into games. Cash will always be remembered for pulling Blake Snell in the sixth inning of Game 6 during the 2020 World Series while he was shoving, but the Rays manager has largely ignored the third-time-through-the-order penalty so far this October.
It’s safe to expect Tampa to deploy the following starters:
1. Drew Rasmussen
2. Freddy Peralta
3. Nick Martinez
4. Griffin Jax
I’m unsure what order the Rays will use Martinez and Jax, but both will be crucial in a seven-game series. The Rays chose to use Ian Seymour out of the bullpen against the Yankees and Guardians despite him being a rotation staple this season. He could featured in either role, having already logged 7.1 postseason innings – only one fewer than Misiorowski.
Things get a little trickier when looking at the bullpens.
Kevin Cash seems to have a tight circle of trust in the relief corps, relying heavily on four arms: Ian Seymour, Bryan Baker, Tyler Wells and Cam Booser, who have combined for 22.1 innings. I do wonder if we’ll see starting pitchers get game action on their throw days. We saw the Nationals do this during their 2019 title run with a thin bullpen, and Freddy Peralta has already made a relief appearance, throwing nine pitches over two-thirds of an inning in Game 4 of the ALCS against the Guardians.
On the other side, Pat Murphy has leaned heavily on his high-leverage arms because his starters haven’t provided length. He’s already extracted 35 innings from Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe, Trevor Megill, JoJo Romero and DL Hall. Ashby, in particular, has been unhittable, posting a 0.00 ERA while striking out 11 batters over 12.1 postseason innings.
Given variance in sports, it’s not often that we see the clear two best teams throughout the year get to battle it out for a championship. I don’t really have a strong opinion on who will win the series, I’m mostly rooting for maximum baseball with a seven-game series.
Pick: Rays in Six
I mentioned above a couple series props I looked at. I’ll mostly be betting some batters under props and pitching outs props but I did fire on one prop already.
Series Prop
Chandler Simpson 2+ Steals in the World Series (+125, DraftKings)
While the Brewers’ pitching staff and catcher William Contreras excel at controlling the run game, Simpson ranked second in the majors with 46 stolen bases. He should start every game for Tampa, even against a lefty.
"I said the two things I didn't want to hear was, 'We're too small' or 'We can't do this," Attanasio said Thursday, Oct. 22, a day before the club opens World Series Game 1 against the even lower-revenue Tampa Bay Rays.
"I actually kept trying to say we were a mid-market team even though clearly we weren't."
Yet Attanasio's side hustle these days is his ranking on the owners' labor relations committee, as the league prepares to lock out the players in December during collective-bargaining agreements centering on the leagues' desire for a salary cap.
And so even though one of the Rays or Brewers will win a World Series championship without benefit of a salary cap that pervades every other major sports league in the USA, Attanasio does have a party line to toe.
"I think the system that's being proposed, which is similar to other leagues in terms of revenue-sharing system, not only will help us compete but more importantly all of the other teams with lower payrolls too," he said.
"Which is something also I think the fans want."
While nearly two-thirds of the league – 19 of 30 teams – have reached a World Series since 2008, including the three-time AL champion Rays, Attanasio believes the Brewers and others like them need more help.
"I used to use the words punch above our weight, and the payroll and whatnot affects that," says Attanasio. "Still, with some of the metrics you point out, I think we still have among the smallest media revenues, including this year, but we're able to get to a No. 19 or 20 type out of 30-team payroll because of that (fan and community) support that we get.
"We put all of our resources back into the team."
In a sense, Attanasio was giving a how-to for other, smaller markets to follow. The Rays and Brewers are both consistently lauded for getting the most out of players and positive workplace cultures. It seemingly is something almost any team can do.
The Brewers and Rays got here without any help. Come December, and into February when CBA negotiations get even more contentious, Attanasio, at least publicly, seems poised to offer that helping hand to larger-market teams like Pittsburgh who have come nowhere near the Brewers' track record of eight playoff berths in nine seasons.
"I think the fact hat two teams like the Brewers and Rays - we hear all the time we play baseball the right way - I think that's good for baseball," he says.
"So whatever that means relative to revenue systems or otherwise, I think if you have a more competitive set, you can have more exciting baseball."
WASHINGTON, DC - OCTOBER 01: The Washington Nationals formally introduce their new Washington Nationals President of Baseball Operations, Paul Toboni at Nationals Park in Washington, DC on October 01, 2025. (Photo by Marvin Joseph/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
The looming lockout hangs over baseball like a dark cloud at the moment. All indications point to no CBA agreement being reached by the December 2nd deadline. Once the sport is locked out, no moves can be made. That means there could be a flurry of activity before December 2nd.
According to industry insiders, that seems to be a likely outcome. There is precedent for this as well. Back in the winter of 2021, both Corey Seager and Marcus Semien signed with the Rangers right at the lockout buzzer. Super agent Scott Boras also hinted at this taking place.
From @ByMcCullough: MLB’s lockout is coming. Before it arrives, baseball insiders expect a free-agent frenzy. Unlocked and free to read. https://t.co/MJdFIEQii9
With this in mind, could the Nationals make an early strike on the market. It is certainly possible. If this is the year that the Nats want to spend, getting it done early would be a wise move. You do not want to get beaten to the bunch in a fast moving market. The lockout creates a soft deadline of sorts.
The Nats can take advantage of that soft deadline in a number of ways. This market could create a sense of desperation on the trade block as well. As we all know, CJ Abrams’ name has been on the trade block for about a year now. If the Nats want to move Abrams, getting it done before the lockout would be smart business. Insider Robert Murray listed Abrams as a player who could get moved before the lockout.
The best MLB trade candidates before the lockout, per @ByRobertMurray
– William Contreras – Jeremy Pena – Steven Kwan – CJ Abrams – Zach Neto – Reid Detmers
Paul Toboni has proven to be an aggressive deal maker early in his tenure with the Nats. This market place could be frenzied, and I think Toboni will be involved. I am not sure what moves he will make, but I would bet that the Nats do something big before December 2nd.
Everyone knows a lockout is coming, so front offices will be well prepared for this. Based on what I know about Toboni, he probably has a model for about 50 different scenarios. The Nats have been preparing for the time between the end of the World Series and the start of the lockout for months now.
Making the team better before there could be totally different rules to the game is something I think Toboni will aggressively pursue. So buckle up, because I think the Nats could be active in these next six weeks.
This lockout truly could be a game changer. Jeff Passan has been saying that there is a real possibility that games are missed. If I had to make a prediction, I think we will have a 100 game season next year. Once games are lost, the two sides will need each other in the end.
Jeff Passan on the upcoming CBA negotiations, via @FOS:
"It’s what makes this so scary, I think, for baseball long-term. It’s a possibility that they are going to remain in their corners and no one’s going to want to come meet in the middle. And when that happens, the… pic.twitter.com/LsA7dR7JTz
The looming lockout sets the stage for a drama filled start to the offseason. Some fans complain about the slow pace of MLB free agency, but I think names could be flying off the board quickly this offseason. We will see how active the Nats end up being, but I would be surprised if they did not make at least one major move before the lockout freezes the sport.
WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 02: Matt Olson #28 of the Atlanta Braves tosses the ball to first base against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on September 02, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Atlanta Braves, who won the NL East and defeated the Phillies in the Wild Card Round this season, had one of the their players honored today.
Matt Olson won Fielding Bible award today. Olson, who is a National League Gold Glove finalist with two others at first base, is number one in both leagues for this award. The Fielding Bible is voted on by a panel of experts and presented by Sports Info Solutions.
First base: Matt Olson, Braves In a very tight race with the Padres’ Ty France, Olson wins his sixth Fielding Bible Award at first base, surpassing Albert Pujols for the most won at the position. He’s now tied for second most all-time (Yadier Molina, Andrelton Simmons), trailing only Mookie Betts’ seven.
Matt Olson has been saving the Braves from poor throws since he started. But where he has really excelled this season are plays away from the first base bag. Matt Olson ranks number one by Fangraphs’ defensive adjustments to WAR. He’s also number one at first base with 12 outs above average.
In addition to the sixth Fielding Bibles, he owns three Gold Gloves. He looks to be the overwhelming favorite for a fourth one. Congratulations, Matt.
OAKLAND, CA - 1990: Todd Benzinger of the Cincinnati Reds during the 1990 World Series against the Oakland Athletics at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum in Oakland, California. (Photo by Sporting News via Getty Images via Getty Images) | Sporting News via Getty Images
Sad news in the world of the Cincinnati Reds on Thursday as former 1B and 1990 World Series hero Todd Benzinger has died at age 63. The Reds helped relay the sad news earlier in the day, and tributes to him and his contributions for one of the greatest seasons in team history began pouring in.
The Cincinnati Reds are saddened by the passing of former first baseman and 1990 World Series champion Todd Benzinger.
Todd will be remembered with great affection and gratitude for his place in one of the most memorable chapters in Reds history. Our deepest condolences go out… pic.twitter.com/h3P6UWTNn1
Benzinger was Reds Country through and through, a native of nearby Dayton, Kentucky and a product of New Richmond (OH) High School eighteen years down the line. Originally drafted by the Boston Red Sox, he was shipped back to Cincinnati during the offseason before the 1989 season in a deal that sent Nick Esasky and Rob Murphy, among others, the other way. He popped 17 homers in his first year with the Reds as their primary 1B, though by the end of the 1990 season rookie standout Hal Morris had cut into his regular playing time.
That moved Benzinger into the role of pinch-hitter and defensive replacement at 1B, as he was considered by Lou Piniella to have the superior glove to that of Morris at the time. Given that Games 3 and 4 of the 1990 World Series were hosted by Oakland of the American League – at the time the only way an NL club could have usage of the DH spot – that put Morris at DH and Benzinger at 1B for one of the most memorable moments in Reds history.
October 20, 1990: The Reds secure a 4-0 World Series sweep over the favored A's to become the 4th MLB team to ever win a wire-to-wire title! #RedsVaultpic.twitter.com/LJSBBhdu4O
With 2-out in the Bottom of the 9th, Nasty Boy Randy Myers got A’s 3B Carney Lansford to pop a ball into the extensive foul ground at the old Oakland Coliseum, and Benzinger drifted deep into the grass to track a ball that those of us alive at the time would swear stayed in the air for a generation. Yet when it finally returned from the stratosphere, there was no hesitation – no nervousness displayed, no foible – as Benzinger made the generation-altering catch look as routine as if it’d been in spring training down in Plant City.
1990 has felt like a lifetime ago to so many of us who were lucky enough to grow into our Reds fandom with that team, and that weighs even heavier with the news of Benzinger’s passing today. After his playing days ended, he stuck around southern Ohio and even managed the Dayton Dragons for a time in the late aughts. He was known to be a frequent contributor to coaching at the youth level and – when Redsfest was a more regular thing – was almost always around to participate and catch up with fans.
We here at Red Reporter offer our condolences to Todd’s family and all those he touched over his 63 years, including former teammate Rob Dibble.
So sorry to hear of the passing of my teammate and friend Todd Benzinger. We were lucky enough to catch up with him recently. He was a great teammate who tolerated all of our bullshit. RIP Benzo. @Redspic.twitter.com/hohCpwqSTB
TORONTO, CANADA - SEPTEMBER 26: Matt McLain #9 of the Cincinnati Reds takes an at bat in his batting stance against the Toronto Blue Jays during the third inning in their MLB game at Rogers Centre on September 26, 2026 in Toronto, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Cincinnati Reds have really backed themselves into a hole when it comes to the roster construction on their infield.
You may recall they’ve steadfastly stuck to the idea of continuing to throw millions at a right-handed, glove-first infielder who a) can’t really hit left-handed pitching all that well and b) can’t hit right-handed pitching at all. While you almost assuredly mumbled under your breath ‘yeah, Ke’Bryan Hayes,’ that’s not even who we’re talking about today.
Today, we dive into what’s become of Matt McLain.
The Reds doled out over $4.6 million to sign him after selecting him 17th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, and he’d accrued enough service time by 2026 – a huge chunk of it while rehabbing various injuries – to earn over $2.3 million in his first trip through the arbitration process. The Reds have given zero indication that they’re going to cut ties with him despite his struggles, so it sure looks like he’ll go through arbitration again this winter and earn a modest raise on that $2.3 million salary for 2027, too.
All that despite – you guessed it – being a guy who’s become a glove-first infielder who hits from the right-handed side but can’t hit righties (and barely hits lefties).
There have been 267 big leaguers who have logged at least 600 PA since the start of the 2025 season, and McLain is one of them. Hayes, as you’d predict, owns the single worst wRC+ of the bunch at just 49, but McLain’s lackluster performance with the bat checks in at 15th worst at just 74. The thing is, though, that McLain has actually accrued 1073 PA since the start of 2025, and that’s hundreds of PA more than every single one of the 14 players who rank below him on this list – that’s because those players hit so poorly that their managers saw fit to keep them out of the lineup more often.
In fact, among the entire first page of that leaderboard (30 names), McLain is one of only two players with more than 1000 PA, the other being one of the best defensive catchers of his generation in JT Realmuto. Up the threshold then to 1000 PA and you’ll see McLain’s 74 wRC+ rank dead last among the 118 MLB players who you’d conceivably be able to call ‘regulars’ over the last two seasons, and Realmuto at 81 is the one ‘closest’ at 7 points clear.
If you aren’t yet a believer in wRC+, rest assured that McLain ranks last among those 118 in batting average (.204) and slugging percentage (.339), his .288 OBP ranking 2nd worst. Just about every way you look at the last two years, he’s been tangibly awful offensively.
To his credit is his work against LHP, which was at least within the realm of being serviceable in 2026. He hit .243/.347/.430 (.777 OPS) against them in 107 PA during the 2026 season, though that’s on the heels of hitting just .228/.328/.351 (.679 OPS) against them in 131 PA the season before. But if you look at his work against RHP over that same time, it begins to get a little ghastly.
154 MLB players logged at least 300 PA against RHP in 2026 alone, and McLain was one of them. He hit just .167/.249/.303 against them in 370 PA, and at this point you’ll be shockingly unsurprised to hear that he ranked dead last among the entire group in average, OBP, and wRC+ (52), his mark in slugging (3rd worst) within earshot of dead last.
His one potential saving grace: his .216 BABIP against RHP last year was far and away the lowest among his peers. That’s despite his soft-hit rate (15.2%) ranking 60th out of those 154 players, his 31.4% hard-hit rate a ‘reasonable’ 122nd (ahead of the likes of Kyle Tucker, Alec Bohm, Nolan Arenado, and even Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez last season). So, there’s at least a chance there was some simply awful bad luck involved here, even if the extremely mediocre .217/.291/.341 (.632) OPS he posted against RHP in 2025 came on a more feasible .284 BABIP.
Not even Statcast offers a potentially hidden solution for McLain’s woes. Everything continues to point towards the obvious, which is that the shoulder and oblique problems that derailed his 2023 and cost him all of 2024 simply handed back a completely different hitter, and that completely different hitter looks woefully overmatched at the plate against big league velocity.
His glovework is good. His baserunning is good. He’s the type of player that – at a certain cost – can still provide enough service to a Major League Baseball team even at this level of production. It’s just that the way the Reds have put together their infield, they haven’t baked in a way to maximize that skillset at all.
At 3B, they have a player in Hayes who should never set foot in a batter’s box and only plays 3B. At 1B, in Sal Stewart, they have the guy that should be their 3B. At SS, they have the best hitting player on their team at the position that, typically, you can get away with a glove-only guy since shortstop is the place where plus defense gets to be played more often, but there’s no way in hell you’re moving Elly De La Cruz off short just to maximize McLain’s glove. So, McLain gets shoved over to 2B where he doesn’t hit nearly enough to warrant playing there each and every inning.
Two infielders who should pretty much only be LIDRs and/or pinch-runners, neither of whom has enough experience to warrant being labeled as ‘potential outfielder in a pinch,’ either. Two players on the 26-man roster who you really don’t ever want to hit in any scenario. Two guys to whom the Reds will owe a combined $10 million to in 2027 who Cincinnati’s front office simply just can’t quit.
I wish I could make it make sense. Barring a miraculous turnaround in 2027, I think a third trip through the arbitration process might finally make it stop making sense for the frugal Reds, but that’s still one full year away.
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - APRIL 01: Garrett Mitchell #5 of the Milwaukee Brewers steals second base as Ben Williamson #15 of the Tampa Bay Rays takes the throw at American Family Field on April 01, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Forget the TV ratings, we’re about to be treated to a World Series between two of the most well-rounded, fundamentally sound teams from the 2026 season. For as much as the Brewers’ and Rays’ small TV markets and low payrolls will dominate narratives during the Fall Classic with the CBA expiration looming, this year’s World Series will feature the team with the best record in the NL taking on the team with the best record in the AL. What that says about the health of the sport overall and the owners’ push to ostensibly and artificially improve competitive balance I will leave for you to draw your own conclusions.
Over the next two days, we will preview the offenses and pitching staffs stacked up against one another. The Brewers and Rays met once in the regular season, way back in the second series of the year in the opening days of April. The Brewers won that three-game series at Miller Park handily, dropping the first game, 3-2, before recording back-to-back victories with score lines of 6-2 and 8-2. If that series is any indication of what we’re in store for, their could be fireworks in the coming days as the two teams combined to hit nine home runs across those three games.
Today, we’ll preview the offenses and tomorrow, we’ll cover the pitch side of things.
Milwaukee Brewers
103-59, 1st NL Central Defeated Padres in NLDS, 3-1 Swept Dodgers in NLCS, 4-0
The Brewers finished the regular season with the third-most position player fWAR in MLB at 26.1. They had a clear identity over the 162, working deep counts, drawing walks, and putting the ball in play. Their .258 team batting average and 10.6-percent walk rate were both tops in the majors while their collective 107 wRC+ placed them third. However, they also finished second-worst in the league with 154 home runs.
Interestingly, they have flipped the script on that narrative in the postseason. Their .250 postseason batting average is still tops among the 12 entrants, but their ten home runs lead all playoff teams as they are the only team to post a wRC+ above 100 in the postseason. Many of those home runs have come in high leverage moments, none bigger than Jake Bauers’ go-ahead two-run homer at Dodger Stadium late in Game 3 of the NLCS. Others have set the tone early, like Jackson Chourio’s homer to lead off that game against Blake Snell to become the franchise leader in postseason leadoff home runs at just 22 years old.
They have difference makers throughout the lineup, with five of their nine regulars hitting above a 100 wRC+ in the playoffs. Chourio leads the way with his seven RBI, but to my surprise has not done much else otherwise as his 48 wRC+ in 38 plate appearances would suggest — you just wonder how much more explosive the offense would be if he could really get it going. Instead, the burden has fallen on William Contreras and Jake Bauers to consistently shoulder the load. Contreras has the highest postseason wRC+ (212) of any player in the World Series and is the engine of their offense batting .367 with three home runs and five RBI. Bauers has been their most clutch hitter and a threat from the cleanup spot with one home run, six RBI, and a 151 wRC+.
Brice Turang finally got some hits to fall against the Dodgers after an anonymous NLDS against San Diego, but you still expect a lot more out of the player who led the Brewers offense with 5.9 fWAR. Christian Yelich and rookie Cooper Pratt have benefitted from some serious BABIP luck, while Sal Frelick, Luis Lara, and Joey Ortiz have been automatic outs at the bottom of the lineup. However, David Hamilton could be an X-factor, the former Boston speedster getting red hot against LA.
They will likely face the buzzsaw of Drew Rasmussen and ALCS MVP Freddy Peralta in the first two games, but are able to counter by packing their lineup with as many as six lefties against that pair of righties. However, the Rays starters could pose a unique problem to the Brewers lineup. Milwaukee usually grinds pitchers down by drawing walks thanks to the second-lowest chase rate in baseball. However, they tend to struggle against higher velocity fastballs. Rasmussen doesn’t issue walks while the Rays unlocked Peralta by convincing him to throw his fastball harder in the zone — both pitchers thrive pounding the zone with heat and that’s not a pitch the Brewers are best at handling.
Tampa Bay Rays
98-64, 1st AL East Swept Yankees in ALDS, 3-0 Defeated Guardians in ALCS, 4-2
The Rays’ offensive identity is similar in many ways to the Brewers. They tied the Brewers for the major league lead in average (.258), and finished right behind their soon-to-be opponents in fourth with 23.8 position player fWAR and tied for fifth with a team 104 wRC+. They hit 15 more home runs during the regular season but still finished in the bottom-third of the league. The biggest difference saw Tampa favor more of a bat-to-ball approach than a patient one. Whereas the Brewers led the league in walk rate while carrying a league-average strikeout rate, the Rays were bottom-third in walk rate but struck out the least of any team at just 18.8-percent.
As with any Kevin Cash team, this Rays team did their winning on the margins. They squeeze every last drop out of their roster through executing the fundamentals — moving the runner over, taking the extra base, getting the run home from third with less than one out, etc. It is how they were by far the largest over-performers of their Pythagorean expected win-loss of any team in baseball, winning eight more games than their +86 run differential would have suggested.
They faced more determined opposition than the Brewers did in the LCS, the Guardians pushing them to six games. It was a bit feast or famine in that series, the Rays scoring seven runs in two games but three or fewer in the other four. Like every other offense other than the Brewers, they have largely struggled against top-tier postseason pitching, with an 82 wRC+ across their nine games.
Tampa’s offense appears way more top heavy than the Brewers. During the regular season, they were powered by the three-headed monster of Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda, and Junior Caminero, and two of the three have certainly brought it this postseason. Díaz is the unequivocal driving force batting leadoff, slashing .308/.341/.564 with two home runs, four RBI, and a 151 wRC+, his Game 6 home run putting the final nail in the Guardians’ coffin. Caminero hasn’t quite hit the heights of his regular season, when he became the first player since Eddie Matthews to post consecutive seasons of at least 40 home runs before turning 24, but his two-run homer in Game 6 was a dagger to raise his wRC+ to 127 in nine games.
Aranda’s 96 wRC+ might fall well short of his regular season mark of 123, but the Rays have discovered a new hero to take his place as an impact contributor. Richie Palacios has been a league-average role player in his five regular seasons but has exploded these playoffs with a .364 average and 141 wRC+ despite remaining the only Rays starter not to draw a walk yet in the postseason.
Otherwise, at first glance, it appears there are a whole lot more black holes in the Rays lineup than their opponents. Chandler Simpson, Liam Hicks, Jonny DeLuca, Victor Mesa Jr., and Taylor Walls all sit below a 65 wRC+ this postseason, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. While perhaps not productive in the main, the lineup has shown a remarkable knack for getting hits with runners in scoring position — Díaz, Caminero, Palacios, Aranda, Simpson, and Hicks have all driven in at least four runs across the two series they’ve won.
Unlike the Brewers, the Rays absolutely punish the fastball, particularly Díaz and Caminero. That should make for a blockbuster matchup against Jacob Misiorowski in Game 1, the presumptive NL Cy Young’s triple-digits fastball already getting knocked around by the Padres and Dodgers. It should also give them a distinct advantage against Milwaukee’s high octane bullpen, who were able to blow away LA’s aged, slowing bats with sustained gas.
For Major League Baseball and its broadcast partners, it’s hard to imagine how this World Series matchup could have gone any worse. The Tampa Bay Rays versus the Milwaukee Brewers, two of MLB’s cheapest teams in two of its smallest media markets — glorious evidence against Commissioner Rob Manfred and MLB’s cash-lusting owners’ declaration that the league needs a salary cap to maintain competitive balance. The Rays and Brewers are glorified mom-and-pop shops, and just spent six months sticking it to the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies and Dodgers. They would have also stuck it to MLB’s most expensive team, the New York Mets, had they not finished last in the NL East and missed the playoffs.
Like with the recent Indiana Pacers/Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Finals, market sizes will probably make this one of the least-viewed Fall Classics in recent years. But from a baseball perspective? This is the kind of World Series that us sickos dream about — we got random speculative developmental centerfielders finally tapping their raw power, bunts for days, relievers you’ve never heard of with special beam cannons for arms, Jake Bauers unlocking the secrets of the universe at age 31 … for some reason. It’s just every kind of epic, even if I don’t care for bunts.
It’s also the perfect summation of the 2026 season, with the American and National League top seeds throwing down as they should and fittingly getting their moment in the sun during a season in which nobody (myself included) would shut up about Tarik Skubal, the Dodgers three-peating and the incoming lockout. All the while, the Brewers and Rays just kept winning.
I don’t actually like postseason baseball — enjoy it? Sure, it’s often exciting, but I don’t actually like it as a representation of the season we just played when more often than not we have teams like the Brewers and Rays grind for 103 and 98 wins for months only to have their work disappear before they get a chance to face each other. I was open about my skepticism of the Rays, and did not think that their rotation would be this good with Freddy Peralta, but both teams have put in the work all season; I’m glad the two best teams made it here.
They did so with remarkably similar roster constructions — high contact, occasional but not relied-upon power and washout pitching that overwhelms every aspect of their opponent’s offensive gameplan. I’m still a home run enjoyer, but balls-in-play cabal is growing more powerful by the day, and I acknowledge that the Rays and Brewers have managed to mitigate an unbridgeable talent deficit by maximizing the value and minimizing the risk of each batted ball. As I explored in my bunt video, the Rays somehow got the run value of their bunts above that of their non-bunts, which is super-duper irregular.
It’s not like the Rays and Brewers won their league championships with bunts and sac flys, though. Ask the Dodgers about the back-to-back sonic booms in Game 4 that effectively ended their season; timely hitting has always been more important than repeatable hitting, and timely hitting is not repeatable. In the MLB postseason, you can’t believe how much better it is to be lucky than good.
Because of spending and talent pool limitations, both teams simply invested in what they could control: getting balls on the ground … and pitching. Pitching, pitching, pitching … and more pitching. For such cheap teams, these are gnarly staffs, each with a top-10 rotation and bullpen. The Brewers pen in particular have been downright otherworldly this postseason, with Aaron Ashby levitating out of his cleats and Abner Uribe frying hitters like turkey bacon. Both closers, Bryan Baker and Trevor Megill, are all world.
Then you have the starters, with the Rays leaning on a couple of former Brewers products — Drew Rasmussen and Freddy Peralta — while the Brewers rely on … a couple of other Brewers products in Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson. Behind Misiorowski, the Brewers starters can get a little dicey with Brandon Woodruff’s status still up in the air, with Henderson in particular losing his mind in Game 2 against the Dodgers on two disastrous fielding errors; Dustin May and Robert Gasser make up the rest of the official four-man rotation. But it’s not like the Rays are infallible either with Nick Martinez and Griffin Jax.
Okay, that’s probably enough naming guys; who is going to win? Short, slightly snippy answer: someone new, because fun fact: neither of these teams has ever won the World Series. So that’s cool! Short, less snippy answer: the Brewers, and let’s say in six games. Milwaukee is a slight favorite on FanDuel, and my pick is for a few reasons. First, I think the Brewers have a better overall offense when we get down to brass tax. The Rays might actually have the two “best” (or at least the most complete) hitters in the series in Junior Caminero and Yandy Diaz, but the rest of their lineup has so many exploitable holes. The Brewers just spent a week showing the Dodgers there’s nowhere to pitch around … for Tarik Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell. Will the hot streak continue? I don’t know, but if it does, god bless Nick Martinez.
Baseball is stupidly, frustratingly random, and so you have to ask yourself: how do you fight that randomness? Well, you fight it with swing-and-miss stuff, which the Brewers have in droves out of their bullpen and it’s the one thing that I am willing to invest in when projecting such an even series. When push comes to shove, and push always comes, the Brewers have the arms to deal with it. It was their win condition last year, it’s their win condition this year. You saw what happened to an even slightly diminished Dodgers offense when they faced this bullpen — horrible things.
So give me the Brewers in six, though I would certainly love seven games. I would have no problem with the Rays winning even being a Red Sox fan, I don’t think our two teams have any real historical animosity even though we’re both in the AL East. But one thing before we go: Tropicana Field remains an absolute abomination to the sport of baseball and is one of the least attractive buildings on planet earth. No venue has ever created less hype for a sporting event period, and I’d certainly like if the Rays explored other options for future World Series engagements beyond The Trop. Thanks, and have a nice day.
ANAHEIM, CA - JUNE 02: Colorado Rockies pitcher TJ Shook (52) makes his pitching debut during an MLB baseball game against the Los Angeles Angeles played on June 2, 2026 at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA. (Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Welcome to the 2026 edition of Ranking the Rockies, where we take a look back at every player to log playing time for the Rockies in 2026. The purpose of this list is to provide a snapshot of the player in context. The “Ranking” is an organizing principle that’s drawn from Baseball Reference’s WAR (rWAR). It’s not something the staff debated. We’ll begin with the player with the lowest rWAR and end up with the player with the highest.
No. 37, TJ Shook (-0.1 rWAR)
TJ Shook was selected by the Rockies in the Triple-A round of the 2025 Rule 5 Draft from the New York Mets. The right-hander was originally signed by the Milwaukee Brewers in 2020 after going undrafted out of the University of South Carolina and worked his way up through the system before being traded to the Mets in 2024.
Shook began the year in Triple-A Albuquerque, where he made 22 appearances out of the bullpen.
After posting a 0.73 ERA through 12.1 innings in April and a 3.60 ERA through 15.0 innings in May, the Rockies selected his contract on June 1 when Welinton Herrera was transferred to the 60-day IL with his elbow injury and Zach Agnos was optioned to Albuquerque. Shook made his MLB debut the next day against the Los Angeles Angels, where he pitched a scoreless eighth and allowed just one hit on 10 pitches.
Shook made four appearances during his first stint in the majors, and pitched well for the first three. He didn’t allow a run until his third appearance — and his first at Coors Field against his former team — and was optioned on June 7.
He was recalled again on July 5 and made a two-inning appearance against the Giants on July 9 that did not go well. Shook allowed four runs on six hits, including a two-run homer to Rafael Devers, on 52 pitches (36 for strikes). He was once again optioned on July 11, and recalled again on August 17 when Michael Lorenzen was DFA’d.
In his final appearance for the Rockies in 2026, Shook pitched well against the Dodgers at home. The Rockies ultimately lost 11-5, but he pitched two innings of one-run ball with a walk and a strikeout.
Overall, it’s hard to say what TJ Shook’s future is on the Rockies. He pitched alright when he was on the MLB roster, and posted a 3.45 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in Albuquerque.
You can never have enough bullpen arms, especially at Coors Field, so we’ll see what the Rockies decide to do with Shook going forward.
ATLANTA, GA - JULY 18: Atlanta shortstop Jim Jarvis (74) reacts during the MLB game between the Texas Rangers and the Atlanta Braves on July 18th, 2026 at Truist Park in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Maybe I’m a bit of a baseball sadist and/or maybe I’m a weirdo who figures that the best way to reflect on failure is to go back and re-experience said failures. However, I’d like to do that while also getting to enjoy some eye-candy, so these particular moments are going to be filled with bullets and lasers that came off of the bats of Braves players but somehow ended up finding leather instead of grass or seats.
If this isn’t your cup of tea, so be it but if you’re rocking with me here, then let’s go through this process together. I’m here for you if you’re here for me. Let’s get into it, shall we? Also, please stick around until the end — trust me on this one, it is totally worth it.
No. 10 – Michael Harris II, May 16 vs. Reds, Line Out, .857 xBA
This one’s pretty straightforward to start this list off with. Michael Harris II got ahold of one and blooped it into center field for what could’ve very easily been a bloop single on any other given day. Instead, on this day it ended up being a fine play in center for Ceddanne Rafaela and Money Mike had to head back to the dugout with hat in hand. For what it’s worth, if anybody would’ve appreciated a play like this from a center fielder, it’s Mike.
No. 9 – Ronald Acuña Jr., March 29 vs. Royals, Fly Out, .871 xBA
What makes this one a bit funny from a morbid point of view is that if you look closely at the background as this ball appears destined to land beyond the center field fence, Blooper and his crew appear to be getting ready to celebrate the seemingly-incoming dinger. Instead, they all had to put everything down as this somehow landed in a glove instead of onto concrete beyond the wall. Blah.
No. 8 – Ronald Acuña Jr., April 18 at Phillies, Fly Out, .886 xBA
This time, it happened in Philadelphia (blah) so the robbery got a standing ovation instead of a groan from the crowd. Once again, Acuña seemingly got all of one and sent it flying to dead center. Once again, a center fielder was waiting to grab it instead of seeing it clear the fence. This is another one where Michael Harris II probably would’ve been tipping his cap from the dugout — especially considering how he’d seemingly made a habit of robbing homers at Citizens Bank Park, himself.
No. 7 – Ronald Acuña Jr., April 6 at Angels, Fly Out, .894 xBA
What did Ronald Acuña Jr. do to upset the baseball gods early on this season? This was the third time in less than a month where xBA figured that Acuña should’ve at least come away with (what would’ve likely been) at least an extra base hit. Instead, it ended up turning into a visually-routine out as it hung in the air long enough for old friend Jorge Soler to get under it and make the catch. Fortunately, this was as bad as it got for Acuña in terms of getting robbed but he won’t be the only Braves hitter making multiple appearances on this list.
No. 6 – Drake Baldwin, September 24 vs. Reds, Fly Out, .897 xBA
Maybe if you’re a doomer, you could make a case about this being a bad omen for what was to come in the future as this team met its eventual end at the hands of the Dodgers in a series where they just couldn’t find a way to break through with any sort of regularity. This was certainly a frustrating moment, as Baldwin seemingly got all of this one only for it to wind up finding a glove. Oof, man.
No. 5 – Mike Yastrzemski, August 1 vs. Nationals, Line Out, .931 xBA
Yeah, you’ve got to just give Nasim Nuñez his props here. Mike Yastrzemski hit it hard and he got a decent amount of air on it but Nuñez jumped all the way out of the gym in order to get to this one and snag it out of the sky. It’s hard to complain about this one.
No. 4 – Mauricio Dubón, September 8 vs. Rays, Line Out, .940 xBA
If you want to know how the series against the eventual American League Pennant winners wound up going for the Braves, just watch this clip over and over again. It seemed like the entire series was nothing but Braves hitters crushing the ball and the batted ball seemingly being magnetized to Tampa Bay’s gloves. This wasn’t even the moment
No. 3 – Michael Harris II, April 2 at Diamondbacks, Line Out, .954 xBA
Considering the situation, I don’t think Michael Harris II or the Braves lost any sleep over this one. Instead, it was a missed opportunity only when it came to being able to pad some stats as Atlanta was absolutely taking Arizona out behind the woodshed and had forced the Diamondbacks to go to James McCann to cover the ninth inning.
No. 2. – Michael Harris II, March 29 vs. Royals, Fly Out, .966 xBA
It’s kind of wild that two of these happened in the same game. This is Michael Harris II’s third appearance on this list (tying him with Ronald Acuña Jr.) and it’s also the second appearance from this game alone. In case you’re wondering: Yes ,the Braves lost this game (4-1) and yes, the Braves out-xBA’d the Royals by a significant margin despite the result (.314 xBA for Atlanta compared to .196 for Kansas City). That’s baseball for you!
No. 1 – Jim Jarvis, July 5 vs. Mets, Line Out, .971 xBA
In almost fitting fashion, the No. 1 robbery for Braves hitters according to xBA ended up looking very similar to what No. 10 looked like. Jim Jarvis blooped it out to center and if it didn’t stay in the air longer, it likely lands in the grass for a base hit that brings up the potential go-ahead run for the Braves. Instead, it lingered long enough to turn into an out and Jarvis goes down as having had the most unlucky moment for a Braves hitter in 2026.
BONUS – Lucky Dog Award: Mauricio Dubón, September 6 vs. Phillies, Double, .011 xBA
The Rays overcame a 2-1 series deficit against Cleveland, winning three straight games to capture their third league pennant. Starter Freddy Peralta, a trade deadline addition, earned ALCS MVP honors after going 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA across two starts and three appearances.
Now, Peralta, Junior Caminero and Co. are on the cusp of making Rays history:
How many World Series have the Rays made?
This is Tampa Bay’s third World Series appearance since the franchise debuted in 1998.
"Todd will be remembered with great affection and gratitude for his place in one of the most memorable chapters in Reds history," the statement read. "Our deepest condolences go out to his family, friends, former teammates and all who knew and loved him."
Benzinger was a key member of the Reds' 1990 championship squad at first base, securing the final out in a four-game sweep of the Oakland Athletics.
A native of Dayton, Kentucky, Benzinger was drafted out of high school by the Boston Red Sox in 1981 and made his MLB debut with Boston in 1987.
He played two seasons with the Red Sox before being traded to Cincinnati in a five player deal that sent third baseman Nick Esasky to Boston.
With the Reds, he became an everyday player for the first time in 1989, hitting .245 with career highs of 17 home runs and 76 RBIs. After winning the World Series, the Reds traded Benzinger to Kansas City the following season. He later played one year with the Los Angeles Dodgers and two more with the San Francisco Giants before his career ended after the 1995 season.
He was a lifetime .257 hitter and finished with 66 home runs, 376 RBIs and 21 stolen bases.
After retiring as a player, Benzinger managed the Dayton Dragons, the Reds' Class A affiliate, in 2009 and 2010. He was also a frequent attendee at Reds' fan fest events.
Atlanta, GA - January 09: An Official Rawlings Major League baseball sits with a glove, lock and chain to represent the lockout between Major League Baseball (MLB) and the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA) on January 09, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The 2026 World Series begins on Friday, with the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the Tampa Bay Rays. But before we get back to baseball on the field, let’s take the temperature of the room regarding the looming labor fight.
The collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1 at 8:59 p.m. PT, after which MLB owners will lock out the players.
Three times previously a labor stoppage has caused the postponement of the start of an MLB season:
1972 strike
This moved opening day from April 5 to April 15. None of the lost games were made up, and one ancillary result gave the Detroit Tigers the American League East crown at 86-70, a half-game better than the 85-70 Boston Red Sox, who played one fewer contest. In fairness, these two teams played one another in the final series of the regular season. Boston went into the final game of the season up a half-game playing the Tigers at home, plus lost 4-1 in what was essentially a playoff game for the division.
1994-95 strike
After the previous season ended on August 12 and the World Series was cancelled for the first time in 91 years, it took an injunction from United States District Court to get a deal done on April 2, 1995. Opening day was moved to April 25, about three weeks later than previously planned. Teams in 1995 played 144 games instead of the normal 162. Even with the reduced schedule, a stacked Cleveland team still won 100 games.
Opening day in 2027 for now is scheduled for Thursday, March 25. Today’s question is on what date do you think the next regular season Major League Baseball game will be played?
Let us know in the comments below. We’ll check back in about five weeks to see how we all feel closer to the lockout.
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - SEPTEMBER 27: Bryson Stott #5 of the Philadelphia Phillies hits an RBI double in the first inning during a game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Citizens Bank Park on September 27, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images) | Getty Images
I saw this post come up on my Bluesky feed and shook my head.
Tim Kelly does a great job covering the team for On Pattison, so this is not a criticism of him. He’s merely echoing what the organization is telling the public, including this quote of Dave Dombrowski’s assessment of Bryson Stott’s 2026 season.
“…We like Stott, think he can be better than what he is, even,” Dombrowski said. “He had a really good June, July, August. I don’t know why he can’t be that player all the time.”
The article went on to note that…
Stott was really good during the summer months, hitting .286 between June and August. During that stretch, he shifted to third base to make room for Luis Arraez at second base and didn’t skip a beat at the plate. FanGraphs says that between June and August, Stott not only led Phillies position players in WAR, but his 2.8 mark was 13th among all qualified position players over that period.
However, Stott hit just .217 between March and May. He posted a .692 OPS in September, and then recorded only two hits in 13 at-bats in the NLWCS.
And there’s the rub. Stott has always had stretches where, for two months, he looks like one of the most productive all-around players in Major League Baseball, a star in the making. Then there are 2-3 months where he looks utterly lost at the plate, and he has posted a dreadful .515 OPS in 142 career plate appearances over 10 playoff series.
Bryson Stott is what he is. There is no “better version.” Baseball Reference’s WAR listed him at 1.8 on the season, 3rd-best on the roster among position players. His 3.8 Fangraphs WAR was the best, better than Bryce Harper’s 3.3 or Kyle Schwarber’s 2.9. Based on the eye test, I believe the 1.8 bWAR is more indicative of his true value to the team, but even if we met somewhere in the middle, we could say Stott is a 2.5-to-3-win player whose value comes mostly from defensive versatility.
He’s hit his ceiling, and if Bryson Stott is your 5th or 6th-best player, or one of about 5-6 guys on a team that can pile up 2-3 wins, it’s all good.
But this is as good as Bryson Stott is ever going to get.
He’s not going to be an All Star. He’s never made a Midsummer Classic roster and I don’t expect that to change. His OPS+ in his five years with the Phillies is remarkably consistent: 85, 103, 86, 96, 98. Over the last three years, his OPS has hovered between .671 and .736. His 36 doubles were a career high this season, so that’s great, but the inconsistency and his 2-3 month death spirals are a bit hard to take.
He’s not alone.
The players on the 2026 roster that finished with the lowest OPS+ of any team in baseball this season has a mountain to climb in order to be a top-10 unit. Even in a year in which offense was depressed, the Phillies were still among the most punchless in baseball. At his year-end presser, Dombrowski pointed to position player coaches seemingly not using the data sent to them by the analytics team to its fullest capacity.
“They supply good information that we are looking to improve upon,” he said. “I think they’re very good. They have a good foundation. For example, they work with [pitching coach] Caleb [Cotham] all the time. From the pitching perspective, we’re known as being very progressive.
“It’s not only how you get the information, but then how other people want to use it, too. That is information we need to do a better job at using. That’s not the analytic people’s fault. That’s something we need to do a better job and emphasize on ourselves.”
To be clear, I’m all for the move to replace Kevin Long as hitting coach, but his successor is going to need players with actual upside in order to turn things around.
Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are a good place to start. The Phillies were the only team in baseball to have two players in the top-15 of OPS (Harper 13th, Schwarber 15th). Harper’s 2026 numbers are almost identical to his “non-elite” season of 2025. Schwarber’s brutal second half prevented him from matching his otherworldly power numbers from the season prior, but they were still very good. Both players turn 34 next year. The best we can hope for is that they maintain their current output.
Incredibly, only six players (Harper, Schwarber, Stott, Derek Hill, Edmundo Sosa and Brandon Marsh) finished with a WAR that was better than replacement level. Three of them were bench players, and Marsh was, statistically speaking, the worst player in baseball after the All Star Game. The following players all had WARs either at 0.o or were in negative territory:
J.T. Realmuto (0.0), Trea Turner (-0.1), Bryan De La Cruz (-0.1), Luis Arraez (-0.1), Justin Crawford (-0.2), Alec Bohm (-0.2), Garrett Stubbs (-0.5), Felix Reyes (-0.6), Gabriel Rincones, Jr. (-0.7), Rafael Marchan (-0.7), Otto Kemp (-0.7), Adolis Garcia (-0.8).
And only four players finished with an OPS better than .750: Harper (.865), Schwarber (.857), Hill (.783) and De La Cruz (.762). Again, only two of them were regulars.
The veterans on this team are what they are. Not a single one overachieved last year and the vast majority underachieved. Below is the OPS change from their 2023-25 numbers to what they generated in ‘26.
Trea Turner (-.123)
J.T. Realmuto (-.122)
Brandon Marsh (-.074)
Alec Bohm (-.065)
Bryce Harper (-.016)
Kyle Schwarber (-.009)
This lineup is a collection of free swingers. There is no patience, there is no plan at the plate, they just swing. Here is where they rank in terms of swing percentage since their first playoff berth in 2022:
2022: 48.3% (T-10th most)
2023: 48.4% (9th-most)
2024: 48.7% (8th-most)
2025: 48.7% (4th-most)
2026: 48.3% (6th-most)
In 2026, the best offenses in baseball were also the most patient.
The Brewers, who won 103 games and are playing in the World Series starting Friday night, swung at 43.7% of pitches this year, the lowest number in baseball. The NL’s best offensive team in the regular season, the Cubs, swung the second-least, 45.2%. The Guardians, one of baseball’s final four this year, swung 46.1% of the time, 5th-lowest, and the Dodgers’ 46.2% was 7th-lowest.
Milwaukee, as the 2025 No. 1 seed entering the playoffs, also finished with the lowest swing rate in baseball, 45.0%. The Dodgers were 4th-lowest, and they won it all. The AL-pennant winning Blue Jays had the 5th-highest swing rate, 48.6%, just below the Phillies’, and the Phils’ high swing rate didn’t prevent them from finishing the second-best record in the NL a season ago, so it’s not always a one-to-one correspondence.
But if you’re going to swing a lot, you better hit for a lot of power. In 2025, the Phils’ .431 team slugging was 4th-highest and they hit the 9th-most home runs, Toronto’s team .265 average was baseball’s best and their .427 slugging was 7th. This season, Toronto slugged .381, 26th in MLB, while the Phils’ .395 slugging was 24th. Toronto also swung a ton without much impact, 49.2% of the time, 5th-most in baseball.
In Philly and Toronto, you had two lineups who swung a lot and didn’t do much with all those swings. You can’t ask a lineup that is hard-wired to swing a lot to suddenly grow more patient and swing less.
Sure, it may work for a time. The three weeks in the beginning of August where the Phils suddenly morphed into a more patient lineup was bliss. Not coincidentally, the offense had its best stretch of the season, and the team had its most successful month overall. But it only lasted for those three weeks. Once teams adjusted and the calendar flipped to September/October, the hacking Phillies couldn’t resist their natural impulses.
Which brings us back to Dombrowski and his off-season plan. I am sure there will be attempts to bring new players onto the roster, but the degree to which he will make changes, at this point, feels slight. There’s a chance they bring Bohm back on a qualifying offer. They’ve already committed to Turner remaining at shortstop to start the season. They’re talking up Aidan Miller, who missed virtually the entire 2026 season with a back injury, and Bryan Rincon, who has never played above AA, as offensive contributors for 2027.
“We need to complement those guys with some other players,” Dombrowski said at his year-end presser. “So that will be our goal. Some of them may come internally. I’m not going to put it on his back, but we think a guy like [Philadelphia’s No. 2 and MLB’s No. 59 overall prospect] Aidan Miller is a really, really good player. You see all the young players that have jumped into playing this year and the years that they had. Aidan Miller, when he’s healthy, he’s as good as any of them.”
Everyone hopes Miller and Rincon will be ready to make an impact at the big league level, but it’s a strategy based more on hope than real conviction at this point.
Schwarber and Harper can be the front runners of a solid offense, but they need players around them who either see more pitches and swing less, or double down on power. Too often this team swung a lot with little power behind it.
Perhaps a new hitting coach that makes better use of data can do that. It’s more likely 2-3 parts of the batting order needs to be replaced by different players, with a stronger bench that will allow the regulars more days off to keep them fresh.
