Category: Baseball

It’s game 2 of the weekend series as the St. Louis Cardinals battle the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Cardinals will give the ball to Michael McGreevy while the Chicago Cubs will start Matthew Boyd. It’s also the Major League debut for Joshua Baez. First pitch is set for 1:20pm central time with the game broadcast available through Cardinals.tv.

I thought the Jays and I had an understanding, I would play tennis on Saturday mornings and they wouldn’t make any news while I play.

Anyway:

Vladimir Guerrero has been put on the 7-day concussion IL. Concussions are terrible things. My youngest son got play playing rugby and it ended his rugby playing. He had a rough time of it. I hope Vlad is only out those seven days.

Paul Sewald has been activated for today’s game.

Lazaro Estrada was optioned to Buffalo, but then DFAed.

Rickety Tiedmann has been recalled from Buffalo. He’ll be in the pen. He was #5 on our prospect list. He’s missed most of this season because of injuries.

Chase Lee was optioned.

Daz Cameron was added to the 40-man roster and called up to the Jays. Daz signed with us as a free agent back in July. He’s played for Detroit, Oakland and Milwaukee. In 160 MLB games, he has a .200/.258/.326 line with 15 steals (0 times caught) and 11 home runs. In 23 games in Buffalo, he hit .367/.462/.582 with 10 steals and 3 home runs. He plays all three outfield spot. He’s mostly played center field, but has played left and right. Some pure speed will be nice (if he gets on base).

Today’s Vladless lineup. Braydon Fisher was to be the opener.

Welcome back to Rays Reacts. We asked, you voted. This time, we inquired on your confidence in the Rays starting rotation, which as a question conjures playoff considerations.

Practically, many teams skate by with just three plus starting pitchers, so personally I’m not too worried about how the rotation shakes out down the stretch. Despite losing Griffin Jax to injury — he recently got an injection in his elbow, and has resumed throwing at 120 feet — Rasmussen and Martinez are solid, Sugar Shane just pitched three clean innings in Durham on a rehab start, the Rays are settling Peralta into the Rays way, and Seymour is over-achieving expectations for a pitcher with 14 career starts at the MLB level.

I’m confident, but more importantly, how did y’all feel?

Minor concerns is fair!

Jax and McClanahan are indeed injured, Seymour was recently in the bullpen, and Peralta is new. It’s reasonable to be concerned at least a little bit.

If you are feeling confident, you are welcomed to place some responsible bets on the strength of that confidence through FanDuel, who sponsors this series.

Go Rays!

Detroit Tigers (60-62) vs. Chicago White Sox (63-58)

Time/Place: 1:10 p.m., Comerica Park
SB Nation Site:South Side Sox
Media: Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network
Pitching Matchup: RHP Troy Melton (7-1, 1.46 ERA) vs. LHP Anthony Kay (9-5, 3.96 ERA)

While he’s been better of late, Trent Grisham slumped in much of the early going of the season. That became a bit more problematic than it would be as he’s spent much of this season as the Yankees’ leadoff hitter. Through Wednesday, Grisham was posting a .678 OPS while hitting first in the Yankees’ order,

The thing is, those struggles haven’t been as prevalent in pretty much any other spot in the lineup. In all other plate appearances besides the ones in the one hole, Grisham had a .854 OPS going into Thursday. This got me thinking about the randomness that often come within season splits. However, I was intrigued by the opposite of what’s happening to Grisham this year. I wanted to know what seasons Yankees’ players had where they absolutely went off while hitting in one particular spot in the batting order.

To try and figure this out, we’ll mainly be using two statistics available via Baseball Reference: tOPS+ and sOPS+. What tOPS+ does is measure how you did in a certain split compared to your overall numbers for the season. For example, a 120 tOPS+ means you were 20 percent better than in a given split than your overall numbers. Meanwhile, sOPS+ compares numbers in a certain split to the major league average. A 120 there means your numbers in that split were 20 percent better than the league average within that same split. We’re also going to put a minimum of 100 plate appearances on this to get a look at players who legitimately played there a bunch, and not just ones who had like one at-bat in a spot and happened to homer.

Batting 1st: 1957 Hank Bauer (143 tOPS+, 171 sOPS+)

Hall of Fame shortstop Phil Rizzuto had the highest tOPS+ in this spot with 154 in 1954, but he didn’t actually hit all that great there (sub .700 OPS), he just did better there than anywhere else in one of the final years of his career. Instead, we’ll go with Bauer, who might have not have had the typical description of a traditional leadoff hitter and put up a .776 OPS overall for the season. However, he hit 16 of his 18 homers when Casey Stengel put him first in the order.

Batting 2nd: 1920 Bob Meusel (167 tOPS+, 228 sOPS+)

When I saw Meusel was especially dominant hitting second in 1920, my initial thought that he probably got a boost from hitting directly in front of Babe Ruth. However most of the time, Ruth was fourth in the lineup with Wally Pipp batting third. Pipp was very much respected in his day, but Meusel just happened to go off whenever he was second in the order, hitting .414/.436/.739.

Batting 3rd: 2022 Gleyber Torres (174 tOPS+, 171 sOPS+)

While 2022 was a few years after his juiced-ball peak, he was still an above-average hitter that year. He did especially well hitting third, which often came with the benefit of hitting after one of Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, or Giancarlo Stanton. In 119 plate appearances there, he had a 1.050 OPS, including a third of all his walks on the year.

Batting 4th: 2018 Didi Gregorius (173 tOPS+, 187 sOPS+)

The 2018 campaign was the first one with Stanton on the team, and the Yankees often elected to hit him third with Judge in the two spot. That left Gregorius as an unconventional cleanup hitter, although you might not have known that he was if you just looked at his stats there. Hitting behind the two large boys helped Didi to a career year, as he had a .748 slugging percentage in the cleanup spot.

Batting 5th: 2023 Harrison Bader (163 tOPS+, 120 sOPS+)

With that 120 sOPS+, Bader was genuinely better hitting fifth than most other hitting there. He was also just so much better there than when he hit anywhere else. His .826 OPS in the five hole in 2023 isn’t awe-inspiring, but it’s funny how much better it is than his overall .643 with the Yankees that year, which ultimately got him waived in late August. This might be the purest form of what I was trying to find in making this lineup.

Batting 6th: 1987 Gary Ward (189 tOPS+, 159 sOPS+)

However, we have now immediately found someone that may be an even purer form. Gary Ward’s 1987 with the Yankees wasn’t especially great either, as his .675 OPS graded out to a 78 OPS+. However, hit him sixth and he turned into a legit slugger. He had 131 hits and 16 home runs in total that year, but if prorate what he did in the six hole and map out what he would’ve done over the whole season, he would’ve had 174 hits and 36 homers.

Batting 7th: 1950 Cliff Mapes (150 tOPS+, 161 sOPS+)

If Mapes was specifically hitting seventh in 1950, he became an absolutely on-base machine. He drew 17 walks there in 124 plate appearances, posting a .402 OBP. That’s almost as high as his slugging for the entire 1950 season: .421.

Batting 8th: 1999 Jorge Posada (170 tOPS+, 182 sOPS+)

Posada’s big breakout would come in the 2000 season, as he was still a below average hitter on the whole in the 1999. However, he showed signs of what was to come in the future, specifically hitting eighth in 1999. Sixteen of his 33 extra-base hits came there, as his 1.004 OPS was nearly 300 points higher than his overall season one.

Batting 9th: 2019 Mike Tauchman (157 tOPS+, 272 sOPS+)

Mike Tauchman was one of the embodiments of the 2019 “Next Man Up” Yankees where it seemed like everyone who got playing time ended up contributing in a positive way. Acquired in a then-quiet deal with the Rockies for reliever Phillip Diehl at the end of spring training, the Sock Man’s overall season numbers that year were very good, but in the nine hole especially, he hit .356/.440/.683.

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Jesus Luzardo has quietly pitched like an ace all season, and he headlines the Philadelphia Phillies in a favorable matchup with the Minnesota Twins tonight.

Philadelphia sits as a -131 favorite, with first pitch set for 7:10 p.m. ET at Target Field.

That pitching edge shapes my Phillies vs. Twins predictions, which back Philadelphia on the moneyline, lean Under the total, and target a Phillies slugger to go deep.

Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, Aug. 15.

Who will win Phillies vs Twins today: Phillies moneyline (-131)

Jesus Luzardo gives the Philadelphia Phillies the clearest advantage in this matchup, and the price is reasonable enough to back the Phillies straight up.

Luzardo has been excellent lately, going 5-1 with a 2.08 ERA over his last 10 starts while allowing one earned run or fewer in four of his last six.

The Minnesota Twins counter with rookie Connor Prielipp and his 4.79 ERA. He has real swing-and-miss stuff, but Philadelphia should generate more against him than the Twins manage against Luzardo, especially with Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper anchoring the middle of the order.

I’d rather take the Phillies straight-up than lay the run line, and Luzardo’s form and clear edge over Prielipp make Philadelphia the side I trust.

At -131, I’m comfortable paying the moneyline price. I’d play Philadelphia to -145.

COVERS INTEL: Luzardo’s peripherals are even better than his strong 3.32 ERA, with a 2.85 xERA and a 2.82 FIP.

Phillies vs Twins Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-116)

Luzardo is pitching well enough to lean toward a lower-scoring game and take the Under at 8.5.

The Phillies left-hander struck out 12 over seven innings in his most recent start and carries an excellent 22.3% K-BB rate for the season. His strikeout-and-control profile will make it hard for Minnesota to post crooked numbers.

Prielipp is less trustworthy, but Philadelphia has produced just a .690 OPS over its last 10 games against left-handed starters, giving the rookie a path to keeping the Phillies from breaking the game open early.

I’d rather bet on Luzardo controlling his side of the scoring. If Prielipp gives the Twins five competitive innings, this profiles closer to a 5-3 or 4-3 final than a shootout.

I’d play the Under to -120.

Phillies vs Twins home run prediction: Kyle Schwarber (+307)

Schwarber has been one of baseball’s premier power hitters all season, and the left-on-left matchup with Prielipp is far more appealing than it looks.

Schwarber has homered four times over his last 10 games, including a two-homer game against Minnesota on Thursday, He's crushed lefties this year, hitting .283 with 12 home runs in 190 plate appearances.

Prielipp’s four-seam fastball is the clear angle. Opponents slug .561 against it, the pitch carries a -6 Statcast run value, and it makes up nearly 29% of his arsenal. Schwarber, meanwhile, owns a .558 SLG and a +10 run value against four-seamers with a massive 63.5% hard-hit rate.

I’d play this to +275 for a quarter-unit.

Phillies vs Twins weather

Target Field is an open-air ballpark, so the wind is the swing factor for scoring on a mid-August night in Minneapolis. Air blowing out toward right-center would add carry for the Kyle Schwarber home run bet, so the forecast is worth a final look before first pitch.

Phillies vs Twins odds

• Moneyline: Phillies -137 | Twins +124
• Run line: Phillies -1.5 | Twins +1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Phillies vs Twins trend

The Phillies are 8-0 in Luzardo's last eight road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Twins.

How to watch Phillies vs Twins and game info

Phillies vs Twins latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

This is a story about how the Detroit Tigers, after concretely selling at the deadline by trading their top available pitcher as well as several other pieces, go on a massive, improbable heater to grab the division title on the last day of the season.

Take a deep breath: That’s the story of the 2024 Detroit Tigers. That team was still led by and impending two-time Cy Young winner. The two best hitters from that squad — Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter — are currently injured. The back half of their rotation now includes prospect Jackson Jobe (who’s allowed six runs in 8 2/3 innings so far in his return from Tommy John surgery), and Drew Anderson (who had a 4.24 ERA in 39 appearances out of the bullpen before being shifted to the rotation). While Chicago’s inconsistent play since the All-Star break has been concerning, the Tigers are not the AL Central team I’m worried about.

A large part of Detroit’s recent run has been Troy Melton, who has a 1.86 ERA in 13 starts and hasn’t given up a run over 20 innings in the last three of them. But with just 69 strikeouts and a league-average ground ball rate, good for a solid but unspectacular 3.63 FIP, we’re at the point where the other shoe can drop at any moment. See: Davis Martin.

The Sox have a chance to start turning the tables today. Opposite Melton, they’ll roll with Anthony Kay, who is himself working at a probably-unsustainable 3.36 ERA since the start of May. His battery mate is recently-claimed catcher Jake Rogers, making his debut for the team after Edgar Quero was optioned to Charlotte this morning. Rogers hit 21 home runs in 2023 but has just a 70 OPS+ since then, and unfortunately, he’s been a concretely subpar defensive catcher this year despite grading out mostly positively in the past. This will be Rogers’ fourth organization in three weeks, as he was traded from Detroit to Baltimore in July before being sent to Boston in the Adley Rustchman deal several days later. The Sox claimed Rogers this week after he was designated for assignment by the Red Sox. Andrew Benintendi also works his way back into the lineup for a second straight game after appearing as a pinch hitter in three of his previous four appearances.

Tigers outfielder Ben Malgeri and catcher Eduardo Valencia are making their 25th and 18th appearances in the big leagues, respectively. Old friend Corey Julks makes his second appearance for the Tigers after 72 for the White Sox in 2024-25.

Melton comes at hitters with an arsenal led by glove-side spin, attacking the inner part of the plate with four-seamers, cutters, and sliders. The outcome of this game may depend on whether the Sox hitters who thrive primarily by turning on inner-half pitches — Benintendi, Colson Montgomery, and Peters, with other lefties Murakami and Braden Montgomery working more to all fields — can make the righthander pay for any mistakes he may make in that vicinity

It’s another matinee matchup this weekend, with first pitch at 12:10 p.m. CT from Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan. Standard broadcasts will be available on CHSN (TV) and ESPN 1000 AM (radio). We’ll see you there!

Former Astros catcher and broadcaster Alan Ashby and former player and manager Phil Garner are set to be inducted into the Astros Hall of Fame tonight at Daikin Park, prior to the 6:10 p.m. game vs. the Seattle Mariners.

Ashby and Garner were elected by the Astros Hall of Fame committee, which consists of former Astros players, current front office staff, current media members and Houston-area baseball historians. Notably, Garner was aware of his election prior to his passing in April of this year. Members of the Garner family will be at tonight’s ceremony.

The official ceremony for the two new inductees will be held on the field tonight at Daikin Park, beginning at 5:35 p.m. Each inductee receives an Astros Hall of Fame sports coat, a customized Hall of Fame plaque and a display case in the Hall of Fame alley. 

The Astros Hall of Fame  was established in 2019 and resides in Hall of Fame Alley on the main concourse of Daikin Park in left-center field. The Class of 2026 will join the 28 members previously inducted. 

THE 2026 ASTROS HALL OF FAME INDUCTEES

ALAN ASHBY (1979-89 as Player; 1998-2006 & 2013-16 as Broadcaster)

During his 11 seasons in an Astros uniform (1979-89), Alan Ashby was a mainstay behind the plate for the Houston Astros. The switch-hitting Ashby still currently ranks first or second in franchise history in several key categories for catchers, including games, home runs, RBI, hits and runs scored. Ashby was also solid defensively while guiding one of the best pitching staffs in the Majors during the 1980s.

After no postseason appearances in the first 18 years of the franchise (1962-79), the Astros made the playoffs three times (1980-81, 1986) in a seven-year span, with Ashby being a key figure in that time frame. One of his most memorable highlights came in the postseason of 1981 when he hit a walkoff home run vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 1 of the National League Division Series. It was the first postseason home run ever by an Astros player. Ashby also hit a game-winning home run in Game 4 of the 1986 National League Championship Series vs. Mets southpaw Sid Fernandez, making him the first player in NL history to hit game-winning home runs in the postseason from both sides of the plate.

Ashby also holds the distinction of being the first player in Astros history to homer from each side of the plate in the same game, which he did on Sept. 27, 1982 at San Diego.

Ashby also had some great moments in his career while behind the plate, including tying an NL record by catching three no-hitters. In 1981, Ashby caught Nolan Ryan’s record-setting, fifth career no-hitter, which is a record that still stands. In 1986, he was behind the plate for Mike Scott’s no-hitter vs. the Giants, which clinched the NL West title for the Astros. 

Ashby was acquired by the Astros as part of a trade with the Toronto Blue Jays on November 27, 1978. Prior to joining the Astros, he spent four seasons with Cleveland (1973-76) and two seasons with Toronto (1977-78).

Following his playing career, Ashby spent 13 seasons as an Astros broadcaster, calling games on both radio and television. From 1998-2006, he was the Astros color commentator on radio, working alongside Hall of Fame broadcaster Milo Hamilton. From 2013-16, he called Astros games on television, handling both color and play-by-play duties alongside Astros Hall of Famer Bill Brown and former player Geoff Blum. Ashby also spent five seasons broadcasting Toronto Blue Jays games on TV and radio (2007-12).

Ashby was inducted into the Texas Sports Hall of Fame in 2000, and was named starting catcher on the Astros 50th Anniversary All-Time team in 2012.

PHIL GARNER (1981-87 as Player; 2004-07 as Manager)

Phil Garner, who was affectionately known as “Scrap Iron”, had a significant impact on the Astros franchise as both a player and manager. 

As a player, Garner spent seven seasons in an Astros uniform (1981-87), appearing in 753 games, mostly at third base and second base.  When he was acquired by the Astros from the Pirates during the 1981 season, he brought postseason experience and veteran leadership to the team. In 1979, Garner shined for the World Champion Pirates team, hitting a combined .472 in 10 postseason games to play a key role in Pittsburgh’s title run.

During his playing career in Houston, the Astros enjoyed success, appearing in the postseason twice (1981, 1986) while contending in other seasons. In 1986, the Astros won a club-record 96 games en route to the NL West Division crown.

As a manager for the Astros, Garner displayed a great ability to rally his team through adversity, which led to historic postseason runs. When he was named Astros manager at the All-Star Break in 2004, the Astros were just 44-44. However, the Astros would post a 48-26 record in their final 74 games to earn a Wild Card berth. The Astros would next earn the first postseason series victory in franchise history when they defeated the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS. The Astros would end up one win shy of reaching the World Series, losing to the St. Louis Cardinals in seven games in what was a thrilling NLCS.

In 2005, the Astros struggled out of the gate, going just 15-30 in their first 45 games. However, Garner was able to rally his club once again, this time leading them to a 74-43 finish to earn another Wild Card Berth, marking the largest turnaround in NL history. In the postseason, the Astros defeated the Braves in the NLDS and the Cardinals in the NLCS to reach the World Series for the first time in franchise history.

During his tenure as Astros manager (2004-07), Garner led the Astros to a 277-224 (.524) record in the regular season, while winning three postseason series and 13 postseason games overall.

Astros Hall of Fame – All Inductees

           Class of 2019                     

Bob Aspromonte          Joe Niekro

Jeff Bagwell                    Shane Reynolds          

Craig Biggio                    J.R. Richard    

Jose Cruz                        Nolan Ryan     

Larry Dierker                 Mike Scott       

Gene Elston                   Jim Umbricht                                                                                    

Milo Hamilton               Don Wilson     

Joe Morgan                     Jimmy Wynn

                            Class of 2020

Lance Berkman             Roy Oswalt

Cesar Cedeno               Billy Wagner

Roy Hofheinz                 Bob Watson

                           Class of 2022

Terry Puhl                         Tal Smith

                           Class of 2023

Bill Doran                         Bill Brown

           Class of 2024

Ken Caminiti                  René Cárdenas

                           Class of 2026

Alan Ashby                       Phil Garner

There’s rain in the forecast this afternoon so here’s the local radar for you to keep handy:

Saturday notes…

• SCORING IN THE SIXTH: The Cubs’ only three runs yesterday came in the sixth inning. They have scored 93 runs in the sixth this season, 17 more than their second-most 76 in the seventh. They are +31 in runs scored/allowed in the sixth, +32 in the seventh and +47 in all other innings combined. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• A WIN WITH ONLY THREE: The Cubs’ win yesterday was their 10th in which they have scored no more than three runs. They have lost 38 such games. With at least four runs, they are 62-13. They are 11-26 with no more than the six hits they made yesterday; 61-25 with at least seven. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• SCORING FIRST: The Cubs are 42-15 when they have scored first, as they did yesterday, including 20-5 at home. Last year, they were 66-18 when scoring first at all sites and 33-8 at home. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• TODAY IN CUBS HISTORY: Matt Murton’s home run ties the game with the Astros in Houston in the top of the ninth and then the teams play eight scoreless innings before Murton’s two-run single in the 18th wins the game 8-6. It happened 20 years ago today, Tuesday, Aug. 15, 2006.

Cubs lineup:

Cardinals lineup:

Matthew Boyd, LHP vs. Michael McGreevy, RHP

I’ll just keep posting these numbers because they sound ace-like: Since his return from his knee injury, in nine starts Matthew Boyd has posted a 2.43 ERA and 1.186 WHIP and the Cubs have won eight of those nine games.

One of the games was against the Cardinals July 29 in St. Louis. Boyd threw seven shutout innings and allowed four hits and two walks. Something like that again today would work.

The last time the Cubs faced Michael McGreevy was July 28 in St. Louis. He did not last two innings, and the Cubs scored seven runs off him, without the benefit of a home run.

I’d take another one like that. In two starts since then McGreevy has a 4.50 ERA and allowed two home runs in 10 innings.

Here is the weather forecast for the area around Wrigley Field.

Today’s game is on Marquee Sports Network.

Here is the complete MLB.com live streaming page for today.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Cardinals site Viva el Birdos. If you do go there to interact with Cardinals fans, please be respectful, abide by their individual site rules and serve as a good representation of Cub fans in general and BCB in particular.

The 2026 game discussion procedure has been changed, so please take note.

You’ll find the game preview, like this one, posted separately on the front page two hours before game time (90 minutes for some early day games following night games).

At the same time, a StoryStream containing the preview will also post on the front page, titled “Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of week/date) game threads.” It will contain every post related to that particular game.

The Live! (formerly “First Pitch”) thread will still post at five minutes to game time. It will also post to the front page. That will be the only live game discussion thread. After the game, the recap and Heroes and Goats will also live on the front page as separate posts.

You will also be able to find the preview, Live! thread, recap and Heroes and Goats in this section link. The StoryStream for each game can also be found in that section.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

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The New York Mets will look to get deep into the Washington Nationals bullpen as these teams square off at Citi Field on Saturday afternoon.

Both teams should find offense, but I'm backing New York to get the better of the Washington pitching staff in my Nationals vs. Mets predictions.

Read on to get my free MLB picks for Saturday, Aug. 15.

Who will win Nationals vs Mets today: Mets moneyline (-137)

Brad Lord (5-2, 3.79 ERA) serves more as an opener when he starts, never having made it through the third inning this year. That puts the game in the hands of the struggling Washington Nationals bullpen, which has a 4.91 ERA this season.

Sean Manaea (4-5, 4.13 ERA) has gone 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA over his last four starts for the New York Mets. Manaea has gotten batters to chase 31.8% of the time this season, which will play well against a Nationals lineup with a 30.8% chase rate. 

I'm taking the Mets to win at -140 or better.

COVERS INTEL:The Nationals have a weak 17.4% air pull rate against fastballs and sweepers from left-handed pitchers, two pitches that make up 69% of Manaea's arsenal.

Nationals vs Mets Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-116)

The Nationals bullpen is going to need to throw six or seven innings this afternoon, and this Mets lineup has feasted on weak pitching even while struggling overall.

New York has the third-best hard-hit rate in the majors (41.4%), and will find spots to string hits together today.

On the other side, Washington will make solid contact against the soft-tossing Manaea, who throws his average fastball at just 90.8 mph. The Nats average an MLB-best 5.35 runs per game and won't be completely shut down by New York. 

I love the Over at 8.5 or less.

Nationals vs Mets home run prediction: Bo Bichette (+880)

Bo Bichette has hit better for the Mets as the season has worn on, but his lack of power remains a massive concern for New York. However, Bichette is hitting .313 with a .500 slugging percentage in 12 games in August, including hitting a couple of homers.

Bichette is squaring up balls at a 27.2% rate, has positive launch angle metrics, and yet has gone through extended power outages. Still, his underlying metrics suggest there's still pop in the bat, which has shown in his 12 homers this season.

I'm taking Bichette to homer today at +800 or better.

Nationals vs Mets weather

Warm temperatures and light winds mean the weather should have minimal impact on today's matchup.

Nationals vs Mets odds

• Moneyline: Nationals +127 | Mets -133
• Run line: Nationals +1.5 (-170) | Mets -1.5 (+156)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-113) | Under 7.5 (+108)

Nationals vs Mets trend

The Over is 5-0-1 in the Mets' last six games vs. a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Mets.

How to watch Nationals vs Mets and game info

Nationals vs Mets latest injuries

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The Cleveland Guardians sit at a -113 moneyline favorite tonight as they welcome the San Diego Padres to Progressive Field, with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET.

However, my Padres vs. Guardians predictions are backing San Diego's hot offense to jump on Joey Cantillo, who's been prone to hard contact lately. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, Aug. 15. 

Who will win Padres vs Guardians today: Padres moneyline (+105)

Randy Vasquez takes the ball for the San Diego Padres, and he continues to be reliable. The right-hander has posted a 2.44 xERA across his last six outings while allowing just 0.41 HR/9.

He is also consistently inducing weak contact, with a 50.4% ground-ball rate during that span.

The Cleveland Guardians send Joey Cantillo to the hill, and he's had real issues lately, posting a 5.75 FIP over his previous two appearanceswhile giving up 3.00 HR/9.

The Padres are raking with a 139 wRC+ and .230 ISO over the last week, while Cantillo owns a 53.4% hard-hit rate and 12.1% barrel rate in the last month.

San Diego’s offense has the edge. Play this pick down to +100.

COVERS INTEL: The Padres' bullpen has been lights out lately, sporting a 2.25 FIP over its last 23 frames, compared to their season mark of 3.69.  

Padres vs Guardians Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-103)

This total sits at 8.5, and I’m liking the Over. San Diego’s bullpen is in excellent form behind Vasquez, which keeps this from being a slam-dunk angle, but the Padres’ offense has enough upside to carry most of the scoring.

Cantillo is shaky right now, and he’ll face a lineup that's flourishing. Cleveland’s pen isn’t in great shape either, posting a 5.15 xERA over the last two weeks while allowing 1.19 HR/9.

Even if the Padres' pitching holds up, the Guardians should contribute some offense with a 111 wRC+ over their previous 12 games.

The Padres may need to do most of the heavy lifting, but the matchup points Over.

I’ll play this pick up to -130.

Padres vs Guardians home run prediction: Jackson Merrill (+596)

Jackson Merrill has been a big reason behind the Padres’ recent power surge. The youngster has smacked three home runs in his last six games while carrying a .500 ISO.

His .950 xSLG and 26.3% barrel rate only strengthen the case, and he's also put 52.6% of his contact in the air over the last week. That is notable against Cantillo, who's seen 22.2% of his fly balls leave the yard across his last two starts.

With the Guardians’ relief corps also showing some vulnerability to the long ball, Merrill has multiple paths to another bomb here.

Play this pick down to +500.

Padres vs Guardians weather

Weather at Progressive Field looks warm and humid tonight, with temperatures falling from 82°F at first pitch to 76°F by 10 p.m. ET. Winds are light around 3-5 mph, so there's not much carry impact. Rain chances rise later, topping out around 35%, so a delay risk is possible but not overwhelming.

Padres vs Guardians odds

• Moneyline: Padres +108 | Guardians -113
• Run line: Padres -1.5 (+178) | Guardians +1.5 (-186)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-100) | Under 8.5 (-104)

Padres vs Guardians trend

The Padres have hit the moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.00 Units / 35% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Guardians.

How to watch Padres vs Guardians and game info

Padres vs Guardians latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

LOS ANGELES — The Dodgers have been around since 1884, and in their nearly century and a half as a franchise Reggie Smith is one of the best hitters they’ve ever had. The switch-hitter will be honored on the field on Saturday afternoon at Dodger Stadium as the newest inductee into the Legends of Dodger Baseball, an honor that’s been a long time coming.

Among every hitter with at least 1,500 plate appearances for the Dodgers, Smith ranks seventh in OPS (.915), seventh in slugging percentage (.528), and fifth in adjusted OPS+ (152).

Smith was already a four-time All-Star when the Dodgers acquired him from the St. Louis Cardinals in June 1976 for catcher Joe Ferguson, outfielder Bob Detherage, and minor league infielder/outfielder Freddie Tisdale. Smith was the middle trade in a 14-month span during which the Dodgers added stud outfielders Dusty Baker, Smith, and Rick Monday to their already-established Infield. In each of the first two seasons with the three new outfielders the Dodgers made it to the World Series, snapping a decade-long drought.

Those Dodgers teams were insanely talented and, at times, contentious. Like when All-Star pitcher and future Hall of Famer Don Sutton told Thomas Boswell in the Washington Post in 1978, “All you hear about on our team is Steve Garvey, the All-American boy. Well, the best player on the team the last two years — and we all know it — is Reggie Smith. As Reggie goes, so goes us.”

There was intended venom in Sutton’s rant, but there was also substance behind it. Smith in 1977-78 hit .302/.406/.568 with 54 doubles and 61 home runs, and led the majors with a 165 wRC+. Smith finished fourth in National League MVP voting in both seasons.

Smith played six of his 17 major league seasons with the Dodgers, and 1976-81 was extra special for Smith, who went to Centennial High School in Compton and idolized Jackie Robinson.

“I was humbled, almost to the point of being a little emotional, to receive that kind of recognition, knowing all of the — let alone great players, but great men who have worn that Dodger uniform,” Smith told David Vassegh on AM 570 in February upon receiving news of joining the Legends of Dodger Baseball. “To be selected, it’s quite a humbling experience, and I’m sure it will be on August 15. Having grown up in the Los Angeles area here, it’s special. It’s a special feeling.”

Smith played in four World Series — 1967 with the Boston Red Sox, then 1977, 1978, and 1981 with the Dodgers — and hit .247/.321/.521 with six home runs in 21 Fall Classic games.

In his 17 major league seasons, Smith had a 137 OPS+ and his 314 home runs are ninth-most in major league history by a switch-hitter.

After his playing days, Smith coached in the Dodgers organization from 1989-98, first as the minor league coordinator when he worked with Mike Piazza, Eric Karros, Raúl Mondesi, and many others. He also was on the Dodgers major league staff as hitting coach and first base coach from 1994-98.

After the O’Malley family sold the Dodgers to Fox in 1998, there was quite a purge in the organization, with Piazza traded, general manager Fred Claire and manager Bill Russell fired, and Smith was among the coaches let go. Smith declined an offer to manage the Dodgers’ Triple-A team in Albuquerque at the time.

In the nearly three decades since, Smith has grown his Reggie Smith Baseball Academy in Encino, where he continues to teach.

“Being off the field actually means more to me there, my accomplishments, than what I accomplished on the field,” Smith told Vassegh in February. “Because to give individuals hope and instill confidence in the things in them that they need to hopefully lead a productive life — whether it’s through the things they attain in education or having baseball as a vehicle to be able to attain those things — I feel that that has been my purpose and my goal in life, is to help others, especially in baseball, to play this little boys’ game, and have fun doing it.”

Smith has been more of a presence around Dodger Stadium in recent years, helped in recent years by manager Dave Roberts, who has called Smith a friend and mentor.

“We have a group of friends who we call The Outlaws and we take a trip to Jackson Hole, Wyoming every MLK weekend,” Roberts said of Smith on Friday. “He’s a part of that, and he’s the elder statesman.”

An olive branch was extended to Smith in 2021, when Roberts added Smith to his National League All-Star coaching staff for the game at Coors Field in Denver.

“I lean on him for just counsel and thoughts. Not a weekly thing, and I adore him. One of the things I was really proud of was getting him back,” Roberts said. “Selfishly I wanted to get him back to loving the Dodgers, and getting that sour taste, from Major League Baseball, getting him back to invested in the Dodgers. I think we’re on our way. Tomorrow’s going to be a special day for him, and for Rose, his wife.

“Going to the All-Star Game. He had the opportunity to speak to the All-Stars that year in Colorado, I think that meant a lot to him. With people like Reggie, they just wanted to be seen, appreciated for what they did. For me it was important to me to make that happen. Not that he needed it, but I felt like he needed it. I think the organization has done a great job in inviting him to games and welcoming him back to Dodger Stadium. It’s fantastic.”

The timing is also important. The Legends of Dodger Baseball started in 2019 as a way to permanently honor Dodgers who weren’t Hall of Famers. And five of the 10 inductees — Garvey in 2019, Manny Mota in 2023, Baker in 2024, Ron Cey in 2025, and now Smith — were integral to the team that won three pennants from 1976-81, culminating in winning the World Series in 1981. Smith completes the quartet of all four hitters who hit 30 home runs in 1977, the first time four teammates did so in the same season, all now Legends of Dodger Baseball.

If you want to honor players from those teams, the sooner the better. Smith is 81 years old, and it’s great that he will receive his accolades while he’s still alive.

Dave Roberts has walked this tightrope before.

Managing big-name closers at the back end of his bullpen. Watching them struggle with performances far below expectations. Having to figure out how much leash he is willing to extend, and when the time for a change is ultimately needed.

“Every year, when somebody’s struggling, [people are] always like, ‘You gotta take them out. You gotta move the role,’” Roberts said in an interview with The California Post on Friday. “But, no matter what, I have to be the person that doesn’t overreact. I have to wait longer than everyone wants to. I have to.”

That, indeed, is the position in which Roberts finds himself once again this season, trying to manage $69 million offseason signing Edwin Díaz through what has become a prolonged 2026 slump.

On Thursday, the veteran closer who was hand-picked this offseason by the club to address its ninth-inning problems instead delivered nothing but further late-game headaches.

He squandered a two-run lead in the Dodgers’ 5-4 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers. He blew his third save opportunity since returning from a three-month absence following a late April elbow procedure. He saw his ERA rise over 11.00 and calls for his demotion from the closer role grow deafening.

On Friday night, Díaz returned to the mound and converted a save in the Dodgers’ 3-1 win, but not before loading the bases on a hit-batter and two walks and needing clutch defensive plays behind him from Tommy Edman and Kiké Hernández to escape.

“It wasn’t pretty. I watched the inning too,” Roberts said afterward. “But he found a way to make a pitch when he needed to.”

Thus, his tenure as Dodgers closer will live to see another day.

Really, Díaz’s spot in the ninth was not under imminent threat, at least not yet.

In the wake of Thursday’s loss, Roberts made that much clear with a defiant answer when asked about a possible switch.

While the skipper cited Díaz’s track record for the decision –– the 32-year-old is a three-time All-Star and Reliever of the Year Award winner –– he also made a rhetorical comment that enflamed an already frustrated fan base.

“Give me another option,” Roberts snapped when asked about potentially removing Díaz from the closer role. “I have to have other options. And to be quite honest, none of those [other] guys really are throwing the baseball great. So that’s just kind of the way it is.”

Statistically, of course, pretty much everyone in the Dodgers’ bullpen has been more productive than Díaz this year.

That’s been especially true of their top two left-handers: Tanner Scott, a fellow big-money signing two winters ago who lost the closer’s role during a disastrous 2025 campaign, but has bounced back this year by posting a 2.20 ERA with 16 saves (most of which he accumulated during Díaz’s stint on the injured list); and Alex Vesia, who has a 2.79 ERA across a team-high 54 appearances this season.

“The body of work for Tanner, Vesia … I get it, I see it,” Roberts said Friday, softening his tone during his pregame interview with the California Post.

However, Roberts noted there were other factors at play.

Reiterating his point from Thursday, he noted that the rest of the bullpen hasn’t been sharp recently, with Vesia’s walk rate spiking and Scott missing fewer bats and giving up more hard contact (including a near-home run to Christian Yelich in the eighth inning on Thursday).

More than that, Roberts added after a day of reflection, he simply wasn’t ready to pull the plug on Díaz closing games yet, either.

“I’m willing to, at some point,” Roberts conceded. “I just don’t want to do it now. Because there’s a part of it where, I need to show him that I believe in him [and] what he signed up for –– until I can’t.”

Roberts had to make similar calculations with Scott last year, and Craig Kimbrel back in 2022.

Both of them had been brought in via blockbuster deals to fill voids at closer. Both eventually lost their ninth-inning jobs by the end of the season.

With Díaz, however, the Dodgers are still confident in reaching a different outcome, hopeful they’ve found something in his delivery to rectify his inconsistent season.

Díaz’s arm angle has dropped considerably this year, from 19 degrees a season ago (and 23 degrees during his peak years with the Mets) down to 15 degrees in the 14 outings he had made entering Friday.

Because of that, the right-hander’s pitches had lost their usual shape. His slider was too flat, lacking enough late downward bite to keep hitters from squaring it up. His fastball wasn’t riding up in the zone either, lacking its typically deceptive rising movement and too often staying in the heart of the plate.

“I’m too east-to-west, instead of north-south,” Díaz told the California Post of his pitch shapes.

Dodgers coaches addressed the problem with Díaz before Friday’s game, reveiwing film of his mechanics from past seasons and identifying a posture tweak to get his arm back in the right place.

“My upper body is sometimes leaning too much to third base,” Díaz told the California Post. “So I’m trying to stay up [with my upper body] when I throw the ball.”

Assistant pitching coach Connor McGuiness then filmed each throw Díaz made during afternoon catch play in the outfield, coming away encouraged that progress was already being made.

“When I’m north-south, I can see the hitters don’t have a chance,” Díaz said. “Today I made a lot of good pitches north to south. Even the ones I was missing, I was throwing my slider down.”

For now, that will have to count as a step forward for Díaz –– who overcame his shaky command to end the game on a well-executed 98 mph fastball that jammed Joey Ortiz on the inside corner.

“I wanted to see him try to fight through it and get through it,” Roberts said, “so I was happy that he finished what he started.”

In the coming days, the Dodgers’ goal will be to further refine his mechanics and get his delivery back where it used to be.

In the coming weeks, they’re banking on it being enough to help him turn the page on his season, and cement what remains a currently tenuous hold on the team’s all-important ninth-inning duties.

“Hopefully with a couple days off to work through [his delivery changes],” Roberts said, “we’ll see a better version [of him] going forward.”

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Roderick Arias’ path as a minor leaguer since getting a $4 million signing bonus from the New York Yankees in January of 2022 has been anything but smooth. Wrist and thumb injuries virtually ruined his first two pro seasons, and he was wildly inconsistent at the plate, too, but if you could look past the low batting averages and the high strikeout totals, there were some loud tools.

You could say Arias’ prospect status hit rock bottom in 2025. He slashed .208/.325/.315 with a 28.8 percent strikeout rate and an 88 wRC+ The 34 stolen bases were nice, but just 7 homers in 465 plate appearances were quite disappointing for the switch-hitting infielder. Arias entered 2025 as one of the organization’s top prospects and he fell precipitously in the aftermath.

The 2026 campaign, however, has brought some tangible growth. Before Friday’s game, Arias hit .274/.357/.447 with 13 home runs, 32 thefts, and a 110 wRC+ between High-A and Double-A. He had a .271/.357/.441 line with a
108 wRC+ with the Renegades and is at .306/.359/.500 with a 130 wRC+ in nine games with the Patriots, albeit with a 30.8 percent strikeout rate.

Yes, there are still plenty of red flags. Yes, he still has a lot to prove. However, perhaps it’s time we start paying closer attention to the kid.

Arias’ 2026 started much like his entire 2025: filled with all-around mediocrity. He was hitting .191/.297/.268 with a 57 wRC+ and a 29.7 percent strikeout rate from the start of the season through the end of May, in 44 games and 182 plate appearances.

You won’t believe how good he has been since the start of June, though: a .333/.401/.575 line, a .976 OPS, a 149 wRC+, 16 doubles, and 11 home runs in 252 plate appearances and 58 games: 49 in High-A and nine in Double-A. Basically, his excellent run of form in Hudson Valley is carrying over to Somerset.

Perhaps the most significant development is that he appears to have figured out that right-handed swing against lefties. Here are Arias’ year-to-year OPS splits against southpaws and righties in the minors:

2022: .295 vs. lefties, .898 vs. righties
2023: .432 vs. lefties, .985 vs. righties
2024: .544 vs. lefties, .776 vs. righties
2025: .547 vs. lefties, .663 vs. righties
2026: .852 vs. lefties, .793 vs. righties

Now, Arias is a dangerous hitter from both sides of the plate, which significantly raises his ceiling and increases his chances of making the majors at some point. To be completely honest, he did look like a bust after his rough 2025, but prospect development is not linear and allows us to enjoy stories like Arias’.

There are a few things to consider before crowning him the next best middle infield prospect on the Yankees. Renowned publication Baseball America didn’t include Arias on their Top 30 organizational midseason list, and he is not on MLB Pipeline’s either, despite some prospects the Yankees traded away not being in the picture anymore. There’s a reason why scouts and evaluators remain skeptical: Arias’ contact rates and consistency are definitely not MLB-ready yet. In the words of former Pinstripe Alley writer Smith Brickner, “It’s Spencer Jones-like whiff without Spencer Jones-like batted ball damage.”

Additionally, he has made a lot of errors on defense this year: 17 as a third baseman (his primary position this year, at least in High-A) and five as a shortstop. Reports from when he was a top prospect praised his quickness, instincts, smooth actions, and, above all things, his plus-plus arm, but he has become error-prone, and it’s not just this year. He is still capable of doing this, though:

Despite the red flags and the inconsistency, Arias’ overall outlook has definitely improved this year after his rough opening months. He is back on the map, which tells us he is a fighter and won’t go down easily in the quest to fulfill his dream. He’ll be 22 in September, so he still has youth on his side.

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The Boston Red Sox (-130) have stumbled over the last week but are rightfully favored against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who own a poor 29-39 record against teams over .500.

My Red Sox vs. Pirates predictions and MLB picks see Boston rebounding tonight on the back of quality start from Sonny Gray.

Who will win Red Sox vs Pirates today: Boston Red Sox (-130)

Sonny Gray ranks in the 81st percentile in Pitcher Run Value, and has a nice matchup to build on that against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Their projected lineup has seven hitters with xwOBAs of .330 or lower – and six with ISOs below .125 – against right-handed pitching the last 20 games.

Jared Jones has allowed a .321 average and 14 runs over his past three starts, and will have a tough time slowing down the Boston Red Sox.

I’d back the Red Sox on the moneyline up to -140.

COVERS INTEL: Gray ranks second in hard hit percentage allowed on the road among today's 20 qualified starters, setting him up to limit Pittsburgh's power.

Red Sox vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Under 8.0 (-120)

Gray is a unique arm in that he throws three pitches more frequently than the fastball. That should set him up for success against the Pirates, who own a .286 average and 11.9% barrel rate against fastballs.

They haven’t enjoyed nearly as much success against Gray’s primaries. They've posted a 3.9% barrel rate vs. the sinker, and have hit .235 or worse against sliders and cutters. Not good.

Boston does not hit for much power against the fastball, and Jones’ 95th percentile average fastball velocity will help him neutralize it.

Bet to -130.

Red Sox vs Pirates home run prediction: Wilder Abreu (+400)

Wilyer Abreu was built in a lab to hit Jones.

Jones throws a ton of fastballs and sliders, and Abreu owns ISOs of .227 and .484 against those pitches when facing righties.

Abreu is also in fantastic form, ranking in the 99th percentile in ISO vs. right-handed pitching the past 20 games.

Abreu has left the yard in 28.6% of away games against pitchers in the 50th percentile or worse in HR/9 vs. LHH. I’d play this to +360.

Red Sox vs Pirates weather

The forecast calls for temperatures hovering around 80 with slight winds blowing inwards. Neutral impact.

Red Sox vs Pirates odds

• Moneyline: Boston -130 | Pittsburgh +110
• Run line: Boston -1.5 (+135) | Pittsburgh +1.5 (-155)
• Over/Under: Over 8.0 (+100) | Under 8.0 (-120)

Red Sox vs Pirates trend

Boston has hit the moneyline in 29 of their last 45 games (+12.25 units, 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Pirates.

How to watch Red Sox vs Pirates and game info

Red Sox vs Pirates latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.