Category: Baseball

Good afternoon everyone, it’s time to dive back into the mailbag and answer some of your questions. Remember to send in your questions for our weekly call by e-mail to pinstripealleyblog [at] gmail [dot] com.

Michael G. asks:The Reds seem to be falling out of the race. Would Stephenson make some some sense? He’s a free agent at year end and healthy.

Stephenson would, and right now I’d say he’s the fallback option if the Yankees can’t pry Ryan Jeffers or Hunter Goodman away from Minnesota or Colorado. It’s not a priority pick, because Stephenson’s offensive capacity is nowhere close to those two with just an 86 wRC+ this season, but when you compare that to what the Yankees have gotten out of their catchers it’s still an upgrade. The main reason that Stephenson could end up in pinstripes though is that the Rockies have been hesitant to include Goodman in trade talks because they see him as a building block towards getting out of the gutter, while the Twins have managed to stay in the playoff race despite hovering around .500 basically the whole season. Things could shift on either front, but if they both stand firm and the Yankees end up with neither of them then Stephenson becomes an option that the team more readily considers.

Darth_Lazarus asks: Given he’s had a month or so adjustment period before he starts hitting with every promotion, does it make sense to contemplate bringing up Lombard? Assuming he’d come up around the deadline would he have time to be ready for playoff pitching?

There’s been plenty of speculation about whether George Lombard Jr. will see the field in the Bronx this year, fueled in equal parts by his strong rise through the organization’s minor leagues as well as the lack of enthusiasm for the current shortstop options in José Caballero and Anthony Volpe. I think I’d be more gung-ho about the potential of Lombard making an impact on this year’s title hunt if he hadn’t gotten injured and missed the last month of playing time, because it looked like he’d turned a corner on Triple-A pitching and was starting to put the pieces together. Now he’ll need to get back into the rhythm again and absolutely rake in a short period of time to warrant a shot with enough time to adjust to the major league level, but to his credit his rehab games in Rookie ball have already gone swimmingly with a pair of homers in as many games. It’s not out of the realm of possibility, but it’s also a pretty significant gamble to mess with the development time of the organization’s top prospect when there are questions still to be answered about his contact rate that could cause major issues against major leaguers.

While there’s a narrow window for this timeline to work out, at the very least it’s not one inhibited by the Trade Deadline. The Yankees won’t be going out to get a shortstop from another team, and it’s also not likely that they’ll be looking for infield help anywhere that could impact this situation. Caballero and Volpe may not be inspiring choices to stick in the starting lineup, but they’re also far from the biggest problem with this roster — both are hitting to a 95 wRC+, just a shade below average in an offense that’s been far more feast or famine elsewhere, and while I sympathize with people who just simply have Anthony Volpe Fatigue at this point due to the occasional boneheaded play his defense overall has looked much closer to his first couple of seasons than his terrible play last year. The onus is on Lombard to impress enough to make his way onto the roster rather than an outright need that has to be addressed here and now, and if he does then there’s a world where his high ceiling plays a part in New York’s October baseball lasting longer than a week or so.

BetweenthePinstripes asks:Has the league shifted towards being more aggressive with promoting younger prospects to the big leagues? If so, are there (relatively) new financial incentives for teams to accelerate a prospect’s development?

We’re sticking with Volpe as the topic here for a minute, as this question was asked in tandem to a response that Derek Jeter had over the All-Star break when asked about the Yankee shortstop. You can read the full comments that Jeter gave here, but I’ll highlight the ones that were pulled out for this question in particular.

“I think as a young player, it’s obvious the Yankees have made a commitment to Anthony….They’re committed to allowing him to continue developing at the major league level. At times, fans get frustrated watching that, but every player goes through it. Every player has gone through bumps in the road. Most of the time, those bumps happen in the minor leagues….It’s tough to go through growing pains at the major league level.“

There are new incentives for top prospects in particular, namely the Prospect Promotion Incentive baked into the last CBA that prompts teams to start promising rookies right away on their Opening Day rosters instead of stashing them in the minors long enough to earn another year of control over their contracts. The return is that they’ll be rewarded with a draft pick if said players win Rookie of the Year or finish in the top three for an MVP or Cy Young Award before they become arbitration-eligible.

The Yankees have not gotten lucky enough to qualify for these picks, though you could argue that this clause in the CBA has still brought about a wave of teams leaning on prospects earlier than expected as the team brought up Cam Schlittler midway through last year and had Ben Rice debut midseason the year before that despite not having had significant time spent down in the minors. Neither one of those players were considered to be contenders to become the players they are now, but they got their shot because the team wasn’t as concerned with holding out for team control as much as they were seeking help for a sudden hole the team needed to fill. It could’ve easily been a journeyman fill-in or a Triple-A mainstay that could’ve been elevated for the starts needed at the time, and that would’ve been the old Yankees’ operating procedure, but the door is more open now than it felt a decade ago. Whether that constitutes a faster pace than there has ever been or if it’s just a course correction from how conservative teams have been with prospects prior to the past few years is a different conversation, but there’s definitely been a notable enough shift.

Welcome back from the All-Star Break, everyone! Hopefully the Rays are well-rested and recharged, because their second half is getting started with a doubleheader against the Red Sox. In the afternoon game, we had Griffin Jax on the mound for the Rays up against Jake Bennett for the Sox.

Jonathan Aranda got a one-out walk in the first, but he was the Rays’ only baserunner for the inning and they left him stranded. Jax did turn it around, though, getting the Red Sox out in order in the home half.

The Rays went 1-2-3 in the top of the second. In the bottom of the inning, things started to go badly for Jax almost immediately. Caleb Durbin singled, then Masataka Yoshida doubled, putting to runs in scoring position. With one out, a Jarren Duran sac fly scored the first run of the game for the Sox. Carlos Narvaez followed that with a single to score one more. Jax did get the final out of the inning, but the Red Sox were up 2-0 after two.

The Rays went three-up, three-down in the third. Anthony Seigler started the home half with a single, but was eliminated in a force out off the bat of Ceddanne Rafaela. Rafaela then stole second. Two outs followed, though, getting the Rays out of the jam.

Junior Caminero proved he’s feeling just fine after his ASG injury with a one-out single in the fourth. Unfortunately the next two batters were out in order to leave him stranded. Yoshida came out swinging in the home half, with a leadoff home run. Jax did collect the next three outs in order, thankfully.

If you need baserunners to score runs, the Rays weren’t doing a great job of catching up on the Red Sox’s lead. They went 1-2-3 in the fifth. In the home half, Seigler got a one-out single, but the Red Sox left him stranded.

Nick Fortes got a free bag in the sixth, getting hit by a pitch to start the inning, but the Rays went down in order after him. While Jax had been doing a creditable job of staying out of trouble through most of the game, in the bottom of the sixth, things really fell off the tracks. Durbin was hit by a pitch to start the inning, then Yoshida singled. Romy Gozalez walked to load the bases. A single by Duran scored two runs. That was it for Jax, who was replaced by Chris Roycroft, but the bleeding didn’t stop. Narvaez singled to score one more run. And then Tsung-Che Cheng singled, bringing one more runner home. Seigler grounded into a double play, which the Rays desperately needed, but then Rafaela doubled to score yet another run. Wilyer Abreu was intentionally walked, but it didn’t help anything because Durbin singled, scoring another run. By the time the Rays got the final out of the inning, the Red Sox were up 9-0. After accounting for the runners on base when he was pulled, Jax’s final line for the game was 5.0 IP, 8 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 HR on 85 pitches. Rough times.

Alec Gamboa replaced Bennett in the seventh, and he continued the trend of getting the Rays out in order. With two outs in the home half, Narvaez hit a solo home run. The Rays managed to stop the bleeding there, but with a 10-run lead for the Red Sox, perhaps they should just start saving their energy for the evening game.

Taylor Walls got a one-out double in the eighth, but the Rays left him out there, and no runs scored. The Rays opted to save their bullpen by the bottom of the eighth, bringing in Ben Williamson to take on the Sox. He got the first two outs before giving up a single to Abreu on a 44mpg Eephua pitch, which is just about the funniest sentence I’ll write today. I love a position player pitching. Durbin then singled as well. No runs scored, though, so Williamson might have been one of the most effective pitchers of the game.

With two outs in the top of the ninth, Ryan Vilade squeaked in a single, but it wouldn’t be enough to mount a comeback. The Rays fell to the Sox, but hopefully in game two the results will be a little different.

Final: Red Sox 10, Rays 0

At the midseason break, the 50-45 White Sox find themselves in the most ideal place one could ask for: Tied for first with Guardians, in one of the weakest MLB divisions — second to only the AL West by a couple of games, and with their starters all healthy. For a team seeking to finish better than .500 with a manageable path to the postseason, Chicago is finally poised to be buyers at the trade deadline on August 3.

To outlast the Guardians and fend off the Twins and Tigers, the Sox must amend their starting pitching deficit. The starters sit in the middle of the pack with a 4.32 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and .245 batting average allowed. While those figures seem acceptable, the club has allowed the third-most runs among winning teams in the American League (419).  The culprit lies in a quasi five-man rotation that has yet to produce a reliable ace at home and on the road. While Davis Martin occupies that spot at Rate Field, his 4.72 ERA, .289 batting average allowed and 21 walks away from home nullifies his Cy Young candidacy. 

Luckily, there are a handful of starting pitchers who can offer decent value before the leaves start to turn.

Michael Wacha, Royals
Affordable rental arms are hard to come by, but Wacha fits the bill. His modest 3.77 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 2.2 WAR are attractive, but his value jumps when factoring in his 12 quality starts and working relationship with White Sox pitching coach Zach Bove. Wacha’s dramatic drops in efficiency and accuracy are worth the tradeoff for his nearly 15 years of pitching expertise and upside he offers for two, or potentially three months of service. The Sox love dealing with the Royals, so why not get another trade done?

Foster Griffin, Nationals
Griffin is expected to be a hot commodity on the trade block. The impending free agent came back from a three-year hiatus playing for Japan’s Yomiuri Giants looking like a brand-new pitcher. Griffin went from a frustrating reliever, to put it nicely, to a more polished starter, earning a 2.77 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 109 strikeouts while pitching six or more innings in more than half his starts. Aside from two really poor outings, Griffin is one of the biggest stories of Washington’s rebuild under its new front office. The Sox must pursue Griffin if they’re looking to be serious competitors for the remainder of the season. 

Logan Webb, Giants
If the Sox are looking to push their chips in this season, Webb wouldn’t be a bad option. Although the Giants will command a higher price tag for the 2023 NL Cy Young runner-up, Webb’s current pitching and resume speaks for itself. He holds a 3.44 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP, and his complete game against the Marlins is a strong indicator that the awful Giants haven’t taken advantage of his prowess this season. The Sox may need to overpay in a league where three division leaders have a three-game lead on the third-place team, but Chicago shouldn’t be sparing a penny given the shortage of starters with contracts expiring this year.

Each and every summer, the MLB All Star Futures Game features rosters loaded with prospect talent representing both the American League and National League. This year, that was no different, as top catching prospect Alfredo Duno repped the Cincinnati Reds in the event which took place at some point during the myriad happenings surrounding the All Star Game itself.

Did you get to watch it? Did you even hear when it was supposed to be played?

Instead of creating a showcase for the game the way MLB does for the Home Run Derby on the Monday before the Game itself on Tuesday, it was buried as a noon first pitch on Sunday, July 12th against a full slate of actual MLB games as teams wrapped up the first halves of their season. It was held to just a 7 inning exhibition format, and it was impossible for you to have watched it and watched your MLB team at the same time.

Why won’t MLB create a showcase for the game itself? Perhaps hold it as a Sunday Night Baseball showcase since that time slot wasn’t occupied by any other baseball-adjacent feature. You could even run it on Wednesday after the ASG itself!

Point being, the national question posed to baseball fans this week during MLB Reacts was whether the Futures Game should be showcased more during All Star week, and an overwhelming 85% of fans think it absolutely should be.

Duno, one of Cincinnati’s best prospects in years, started the game for the National League and went 0 for 2 (with one of those being a 400 foot fly out to CF that just missed clearing the wall). Unless you were willing to abandon watching the Reds for the final time before a four-day break for that opportunity, you didn’t get to see him do that.

It’s time for Rob Manfred to use the already-excellent Futures Game concept in a way that both showcases the players involved and provides a clearer path for fans to enjoy it.

MLB Reacts are brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook.

“I’m almost done.”

It’s a weird feeling that has been simmering in my head these past few months. It has grown louder with each passing day. This life is a funny old life.

I could never have imagined in April 2021 in Oakland that five and a half years later I would stand on the precipice of the goal: to see the Dodgers play in every MLB stadium… and somehow Tokyo. It’s understandably been a roller coaster week.

I meant to write a follow-up field report for Chicago, but I realized I’d said just about everything I needed to in the Guide Entry. I’ll update the Guide Entry, but I did finally find a decent seat at this ballpark. The problem is that the solution is what I will call the Daikin Park Solution: a club seat is really the only way to go.

Having to shell out $200-400 per game ticket is not a solution. It’s a joke. When spending that much per game is the only option, the real best option is to stay at home. The spot I had picked for the series finale seemed promising until people showed up; then the frequent comings and goings blocked the action.

You don’t tug on Superman’s cape

On this eve of completing the MLB circuit, I want to address a question I have gotten this year.

“Michael, you seem a heck of a lot meaner to Blue Jays’ fans than Yankees’ fans; what gives?”

I am generally not mean to anyone. However, I do have infinitely less sympathy for Blue Jays fans for a simple reason: I have never seen an organization or fanbase lean so hard into coming second. Yes, the Dodgers are probably overdoing it with Game 7 bobbleheads. In case you missed it, “The Catch” is finally coming to bobblehead form this September. Hang it in the Louvre.

Are we on the eve of getting a Justin Wrobleski marching towards the plate with arms extended bobblehead? Honestly, I hope not, because what would the next 2025 World Series bobblehead be? Justin Dean “Hands Up”? “The Legend of” Will Klein? “Shirtless” Clayton Kershaw?

As for our northern cousins, a combination of 50th anniversary gear (very cool) and AL Pennant gear. Imagine if the Dodgers had followed the same tack in 2018; the mockery would be loud and deserved. After 2017 broke me, there was a period of loss when the Dodgers felt so close yet so far. “Yu Darvish laying an egg in Game 7” became a running joke, until it came out that the Houston Astros cheated, which retraumatized me all over again.

However, I have never once said that the Dodgers should be awarded the 2017 title. Even with the Astros’ cheating, the Dodgers were a Kenley Jansen meatball (Game 2), a Clayton Kershaw not listening to his coaches (Game 5), or a Yu Darvish turkey (Game 7) away from winning.

But at the end of the day, three is less than four.

Vacatur was the appropriate remedy because the Astros screwed over a bunch of teams along the way, including the Yankees — unless you were the disinterested Commissioner trying to turn the page. The video of the Commissioner calling the trophy a piece of metal is hard to find, but sometimes life hands out a gift.

With this history in mind, hearing fans try to justify the 2025 Jays is personally irritating. I acknowledge it’s my burden to bear. It turns out that if you yell at me for four hours, I’m going to be a bit cross about it and let it color how magnanimous I feel.

Losing in the World Series stinks. I actually get it. The only thing worse is watching the team struggle itself back up the hill to lose even faster. I never watched Game 7 of 2017 or even knew its ending until seeing it by accident after the 2020 title. I had no such luxury in 2018.

I maintain the position that the toughest opponent the Dodgers faced in 2025 was the Philadelphia Phillies. That series could have, and probably would have, lasted longer if it had been Best of 7. This acknowledgment is not a request to lengthen the Division Series round to Best of 7 (please no), but rather an appreciation of the effort it took for the Phillies to make Shohei Ohtani look mortal.

All that drama, only to end on a play Bill Buckner would grimace at.

All the ink that has been spent on Dodgers/Padres could have gone to a much more interesting matchup we were denied. Sadly, it is a topic for another day, after I have returned from the City of Brotherly Love.

To be fair to the Blue Jays, the World Series we got last year was entertaining. However, I wouldn’t necessarily call it “good.” Games 1, 4, and 5 were duds; not because the Dodgers lost, but the outcomes were pretty much set from the get-go. Watching an old team be tired is generally not entertaining, especially if you have spent a lot of money to be there in person.

Game 2 was a tightrope, a tense, entertaining affair where Yoshinobu Yamamoto outdueled Kevin Gausman.

Game 3 was a classic, mostly due to its length and the sheer comical nature of parts of it. Had manager John Schneider not been so overly aggressive with pinch-running, the Blue Jays would have stood a better chance of winning it. Instead, the Jays fielded essentially a Spring Training lineup, which ultimately was their undoing that night.

Baserunning blunders sealed Games 6 and 7, which were 36 hours of pure baseball cinema.

Yes, the Blue Jays outhit and outpitched the Dodgers overall on a statistical level that Series, so you know who else recently outhit and outpitched the Dodgers overall in a Fall Classic only to lose? The hosts of the Dodgers’ next three games: The New York Yankees.

For as entitled as Yankees fans are generally thought to be, none of them went around two winters ago saying: “The Yankees outplayed the Dodgers and should have won that Series!” To be fair, 21 minutes of generational trauma, laying bare the worst things anyone has thought about the 2024 Yankees, is a lot harder to swallow than Jeff Hoffman coughing one up to Miguel Rojas.

As the Dodgers return to the Bronx for the first time since that fabled night in 2024, I face a solemn truth that has bothered me. In all my travels, the only team that I have yet to see play in person is the New York Yankees. I had the opportunity to go to Games 4 and 5 of the 2024 World Series, but I held back because I would have had to overextend myself.

To celebrate the Dodgers’ return to the Bronx, let us relive a bit of lost playoff coverage we ran out of time to publish two winters ago on the eve of the Dodgers’ return to the Bronx. The locals will likely be loud and eager to “welcome” the Dodgers back to New York. As a fun exercise, I thought it would be neat to annotate what never got to print with thoughts from now.

The Bronx Flop

“Recently,” Joe Kelly and Miguel Rojas have publicly confirmed what was apparent on the field in this World Series: the Yankees had no business being there. Normally, when the playoffs end, I generally stop paying attention to what the Dodgers say about their opponents. [Author’s Note: Yes, early 2025-me would probably judge and mock 2026-me.]

But unlike in recent years, the Dodgers opened up a bit more than expected. Dave Roberts called the NLDS the Dodgers’ biggest challenge in the playoffs, and that that series was the World Series:

We try not to venture into “talk radio” territory here at True Blue LA. And when Dodgers reliever, “now” free agent Joe Kelly, went off on the New York Yankees, I had a single thought in response:

That’s mighty big talk from someone who was not on the roster at any point in October.

With the second title in four years [Author’s Note: Out of date], with the first full-season title since the hallowed year of 1988, I let a lot of stuff slide, including when Mookie Betts was manhandled in Game 4 of the World Series. This fact remains true, even though I felt like a scold during that playoff run.

When someone interfered with Gleyber Torres’ ball in Game 2, Dodger fans around him and watching at home justifiably reacted in horror. To their credit, when this inattentive fan was kicked out of the stadium, the crowd did not give him adulation or high-fives.

When Betts was manhandled in Game 4, it was a far different story in the Bronx. These two jokers got a hero’s exit upon being ejected from Yankee Stadium. I was so horrified by everything that it was almost enough to make me wish dishonor on everyone at Yankee Stadium in Game 4, including any livestock they might own. [Author’s Note: Still banned!]

The following day, as a barometer, I showed the footage to my mother, who was largely ignorant of what was going on. Her outright horror was palpable, not just on Betts’ behalf, who handled himself as well as could be expected, but for the game itself. [Author’s Note: At the time, I did not know that Betts was her favorite Dodger, which explains a bit reaction-wise.]

Even after the World Series, on November 6th, Max Muncy was still pretty heated about the incident.

At the time, I figured Aaron Boone would have the final word, until he ruined the moment by whining about the Dodgers’ remarks.

And as much as I thought I would be able to move on, I cannot let this Series pass without commenting on the fact that one of my favorite actors was literally chased from Yankee Stadium.

The locals messed with The Bunk

Most of you do not know the name Wendell Pierce. Pierce is a distinguished actor from television and the stage. Pierce is widely regarded as the epitome of style and class. Pierce’s most famous role is arguably Detective Bunk Moreland in The Wire. Finding a safe-for-work clip of Pierce as Bunk that was not a spoiler was a gargantuan task.

Pierce happens to be a fan of both the Yankees and the Dodgers and was in the enviable position of being able to attend games in both Los Angeles and New York, wearing the home team’s gear to enjoy this World Series.

While some may scoff at having both a National League and American League team to root for, good for him. I instantly thought of a friend of mine who is both a fan of the Dodgers and the Tampa Bay Rays and who treated the 2020 series as an invitation to anxiety.

I see someone in that dilemma as having a Sophie’s Choice — you can only pick one. But Pierce’s actions say otherwise, and frankly, good for him. Rather than letting this titan of acting enjoy his moment, he was accosted. Imagine my rage when he tweeted the following from Game 5 at Yankee Stadium.

Between the stupidity of Game 4 and the classlessness of Game 5, it would be easy to paint all Yankee fans with a broad brush. But to do so would be wrong. What frustrates me the most is that Yankee Stadium is one of the four remaining stadiums I have yet to visit for True Blue LA. [Author’s Note: Well, two now.]

I thought I could not dread visiting a place more than Houston, but considering everything that happened, the Bronx has joined that ignominious list. [Author’s Note: For the record, Houston was just as insufferable as I feared as I feared it would be. Score one for past-me as to foresight. Whether I have a better time is a question we will answer this weekend. Until I check in from the road!]

As we enter the second half, there are a few players and storylines I am going to watch. Obviously, the Nats offense has been fantastic this season, but to erase all lingering doubt about the sustainability of the group, they will have to keep performing. Today, I am going to take a look at three hitters to monitor following the All-Star Break.

This second half might be the most important stretch of games in Dylan Crews’ career. It might not be totally make or break, but it is pretty close. The former second overall pick was one of the most productive and decorated college players this century. However, his stardom at LSU has not translated to the big leagues.

After getting called in mid-May, Crews is hitting just .211 with a .613 OPS. There have been some moments to get excited about, but as has been the case for most of Crews’ pro career, it has been one step forward, two steps backwards. We are now 163 games into Crews’ career, and he is a career .211 hitter with a .627 OPS. He does have 19 homers and 34 steals in his career, but that is not enough to make up for the lack of overall hitting. 

When you compare his MLB numbers and college numbers, the fall off is pretty shocking. MLB Pipeline gave Crews a 70 hit tool and 60 power, but he has not come close to approaching that since leaving Baton Rouge. We saw that Paul Toboni is not afraid to dump underperforming big names, as he just shipped off Robert Hassell III for cash.

If Crews wants to avoid that fate, he needs to get going. Right now, it looks like his confidence is shaky and he was falling back into bad habits in the last couple of weeks. A lot of the raw tools are still there for Crews, but he needs to put it together quickly. If it is more of the same for the former LSU star, his spot in the Nationals outfield should be under massive threat heading into 2027.

The next player I want to talk about is a very different story, but also has plenty to prove in the second half. CJ Abrams has been highly productive this season, as one would expect from the National League’s starting shortstop in the All-Star game. However, Abrams will have to reverse a recent trend in the last few months of the season.

Over the last two seasons, Abrams has been awesome in the first half before hitting a wall down the stretch. Last season, Abrams hit .287 with an .836 OPS prior to the All-Star break. However, those numbers collapsed to .217 and .634 in the second half. Abrams was striking out more, walking less and was just less effective all around.

The drop off was even more extreme in 2024 though. He made his first All-Star team that year and was hitting .268 with an .832 OPS. In the second half, Abrams hit just .203 with a .586 OPS before his season ended prematurely following the whole casino fiasco in Chicago. 

It is worth noting that Abrams’ first half numbers are even better than they were in previous years. Right now, Abrams is hitting .275 with an .862 OPS. He is hitting for more power and taking more walks. 

Putting in extra work has been a big theme for Abrams this year. The 25 year old is well aware of what has happened the last two seasons, and wants to stay consistent for a full 162 games this year. There was a good story in the Baltimore Banner about how Abrams and James Wood, who also had a rough second half last year, are putting in extra work to stay sharp for the whole 162.

With better hitting coaches and this new approach, I have confidence that Abrams can stabilize in the second half. However, it would be crazy not to have some lingering concerns given what has happened in the last two years. 

There will also be some new distractions for Abrams this time around. His name is likely to be involved in trade rumors prior to the deadline. Hopefully he is able to drown out the outside noise and keep going in what has been a tremendous season for the shortstop.

Lastly, I want to talk about a player who has not had a terrible season, but has been fairly underwhelming given what he showed last year. Daylen Lile is an absolute joy to watch when he is at his best, but he has not been in peak form often enough this season. After an explosive September last year, Lile has come down to earth, hitting just .246 with a .698 OPS this season.

Those numbers, especially combined with his much improved defense, are not dreadful, but we all want to see more from Lile in the second half. It was the second half when Lile truly made a name for himself last year. The speedy outfielder hit .333 with a .956 OPS, capped off by winning NL Player of the Month in September. He was a triple machine, who was such a great hitter. 

We have seen greatness from Lile at times this year, but it just comes in explosive two or three game spurts before he tails off again. The biggest reason for Lile’s offensive regression comes from his plate discipline collapsing. His chase rate has gone from an above average 26.7% to 37.5%, the same rate as the infamously swing happy Keibert Ruiz.

Lile’s lack of discipline has made him easier to pitch to, as he just gets himself out a lot of times. Getting the best version of Lile back will make the Nats offense even more potent. We all know there is a great hitter in Daylen Lile, he just needs to stop pressing so much and get back to the basics.

The Nats have a lot to prove in the second half, but these three guys especially so. Cade Cavalli and literally anyone in the bullpen are honorable mentions as well. It was a tough way to end a strong first half, but now it is time for the Nats to get back on the horse and prove they are a team on the rise who can contend for years to come. Crews, Abrams and Lile proving themselves down the stretch will go a long way towards achieving that goal.

The Cubs resume the 2026 season against an American League team. The Cubs’ interleague record to date isn’t very good, just 11-15. That means there are 22 games remaining for the Cubs against AL teams, a reasonable number to improve that record! Let’s hope that improvement begins during this homestand, which is all against AL Central clubs, the Twins and Tigers.

For more on the Twins, here’s Benjamin Jones, manager of our SB Nation Twins site Twinkie Town.

When the Twins and Cubs met in July 2025, Minnesota was around .500 on the backs of strong starting pitching from Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, and the best bullpen in baseball but couldn’t muster enough offense to truly compete. Despite a similar record in 2026, things couldn’t be more different. Lopez is out for the season and the entire bullpen is gone after dealing away 2026 All-Stars Jhoan Duran, Louie Varland, and five other relievers a year ago, while the Twins have one of best lineups in baseball.

What’s different this time around is the direction and vibe of the team. Former Pirates manager Derek Shelton has brought a new energy to the squad that wasn’t always present under longtime manager Rocco Baldelli, which helped the young batters stick out some tough spells early in the season. Since June 12, the Twins are 17-10, fourth-best in MLB, and have won eight of nine series, with the only loss coming against the almighty Dodgers. Of course, the Cubs have the best record in baseball in that same span, but let’s not dwell on that part. Minnesota is right back in the playoff race and has a new controlling owner (albeit from the same Pohlad family) who has made it clear he’s willing to spend money to shore up their major holes.

And those holes are prevalent. The most glaring issue is the bullpen, which makes sense after the 2025 sell-off. Rookie Andrew Morris has been among the best relievers in the sport over the past two months since moving to the bullpen full time. Yoendrys Gomez, claimed off waivers from the Rays in May, has also been very good after tweaking his pitch mix with the Twins. Outside of that, there’s genuinely no one with a semblance of reliability. If they can get to the eighth with a lead, they’re solid, but those middle innings after Ryan, Taj Bradley, and Bailey Ober leave the game are where the Cubs should be able to feast.

On the other side, the Twins are led by Byron Buxton though he may miss this series as he went on the IL right before the All-Star break. Outside of Buck, there are no individual standouts, but pretty much everyone in the lineup has been a solid contributor. The overall numbers are still lackluster with a lot of slow starts, but since June 1, the Twins have 11 players with a wRC+ of at least 100, eight at 120+, and four (Buxton, Trevor Larnach, Victor Caratini, Josh Bell) at 150+. It’s a solid, deep lineup that is very scary when Buck and catcher Ryan Jeffers are healthy.

The main place they’re susceptible is against lefties, which has been an issue for a literal decade. Outside of Buxton and Jeffers, their best hitters are platoon lefties (Trevor Larnach, Kody Clemens) or switch hitters who are significantly worse from the right side (Bell, Caratini, Brooks Lee). Shelton will get aggressive with pinch hitters when lefties come out of the ‘pen, which opposing managers have used to their advantage to get Larnach and Clemens out of the lineup in the middle innings. Though, with the team currently carrying three catchers, that may be less of a strategy over the next few weeks. Either way, I would expect a heavy dose of lefty specialist, ex-Twin, and Minnesota native Caleb Thielbar, which I’m personally very happy about

Fun facts

The Cubs have played 23 previous games at home vs. the Twins, tied with the Royals for their second most at Wrigley Field against any American League team other than the White Sox, their guests for 76 games.

The Cubs are 14-9 at home vs. the Twins, for a winning percentage of .609. They have a higher percentage only when hosting the Angels (.625, 10-6), Blue Jays (.636, 7-4) and Mariners (.643, 9-5).

Against all AL teams, the Cubs are 309-292, .514, overall and 162-138, .540, at home. But this year, they are just 11-15, .423, overall and 4-7, .363, at home.

The Cubs are 24-22 in all games vs. the Twins. They lost two of three at Minnesota last year, after having won two of three at home in 2024.

The Cubs swept three games vs. the Twins at Wrigley twice, in 2001 and 2018. They are 3-5 in three series there since then.

(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

Probable pitching matchups

Friday: Colin Rea, RHP (7-5, 4.75 ERA, 1.447 WHIP, 4.91 FIP) vs. Bailey Ober, RHP (6-3, 4.40 ERA, 1.186 WHIP, 4.91 FIP)

Saturday: Matthew Boyd, LHP (5-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.283 WHIP, 3.58 FIP) vs. Taj Bradley, RHP (9-3, 3.59 ERA, 1.218 WHIP, 3.93 FIP)

Sunday: Shōta Imanaga, LHP (5-8, 4.17 ERA, 1.120 WHIP, 4.64 FIP) vs. Zebby Matthews, RHP (4-6, 4.57 ERA, 1.224 WHIP, 5.10 FIP)

Times & TV channels

Friday: 7:05 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Saturday: 1:20 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Sunday: 1:20 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Prediction

The Cubs are playing well. As noted above, so are the Twins — who, amazingly enough, are tied for the AL’s third wild card spot even though they are a game under .500.

The Twins have won nine of their last 12 road games so the Cubs should not look past them. Still, I think the Cubs should win two of three here.

Up next

The Cubs host the Detroit Tigers in a three-game series at Wrigley Field beginning Monday evening.

Say what you like about the extra wild-card, it has certainly made things interesting. There’s really only a handful of teams in the NL who are out of the picture. Five (the Rockies, Giants, Mets, Reds and Nationals) currently have playoff odds below four percent, according to Fangraphs. Everyone else is at least in double digits, with the Diamondbacks sitting at 24%. There’s 66 games left, and still a lot to play for, as the second half of the season kicks off tonight, with the D-backs taking on the Cardinals at Chase Field.

Arizona currently sits on a record of 49-47, two and a half games back of the Marlins for the third wild-card spot in the National League. The Pirates and those Cardinals are also ahead of the Diamondbacks, so winning this opening series after the break becomes doubly important. Not least because it’d give Arizona any potential season series tiebreaker against St. Louis, having previously taken two of three at Busch Stadium (one game there was postponed, which will now be squeezed in next Thursday, an unscheduled stop as the D-backs head from Phoenix to Washington).

It would also help make up GM Mike Hazen’s mind with regard to his philosophy as we approach August 3rd’s trade deadline, now little more than two weeks away. While Hazen’s contract runs through the end of 2028, with a club option for 2029, it does feel like the rest of this year may be his “crossing the Delaware” moment. [The silence on any contract extension for lame-duck manager Torey Lovullo seems telling] After making an unexpected run to the World Series in 2023, and Hazen being rewarded with club-record payrolls in 2024 and 2025, the team failed to reach the playoffs in either season, and the win total dropped from 89 to 80 wins last year. Failure again may prove fatal.

So what needs to happen for Arizona to avoid that, and return to the post-season for the first time since 2023? Here are five things which will factor into that. If they can address all of them successfully, I think they’ll be able to push their way back into the playoff picture. But that’s going to be considerably easier said than done.

1. Get production from first-base

Courtesy of Tim Tawa’s single-handed demolition job at Dodger Stadium, the D-backs no longer have the worst OPS at first-base by any MLB team in over a century. They’re now merely the worst team in the National League for over eighty years – the 1944 Boston Braves being the last such to post a figure below Arizona’s current .590. The good news is, things can hardly get any worse. But where the improvement will come from is less certain. Tyler Locklear has been called up, and was batting .313 for Reno over 54 games. But an .897 OPS is not all that for the PCL, and Locklear’s major-league performances have been lackluster. He may be a place-holder until Hazen trades for someone better.

2. Stabilize the rotation

At the start of the year, we were hoping to have Corbin Burnes back for the second half. That ain’t happening. Instead, we have Zac Gallen and Michael Soroka joining him on the IL, which has forced the team to give debuts to Jose Cabrera, who turned 24 in May, and the even younger Mitch Bratt, who celebrated his 23rd birthday a couple of weeks ago. Add in the struggles of Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt, and it doesn’t feel like a playoff rotation. By fWAR, Arizona’s starting pitching is 27th in the majors, mostly because their K-rate ranks dead last. Kelly and Pfaadt have looked better their last couple of outings, and that’s almost certainly going to be needed for the team to contend.

3. Staying centered

First base may have received all the criticism, but center hasn’t been much better at the plate: a .579 OPS there, ahead only of Cleveland. With Tommy Troy now joining Jordan Lawlar on the injured list, the options there become perilously thin. The fact Jorge Barrosa has made 65 appearances so far for Arizona, while batting .186, tells you all you need to know about the outfield situation for the D-backs. The return of Locklear may mean we see more Tawa in center. It’s another area where the bar is law for improvement. But while discussing the outfield, just moving to the right a bit, we could also do with Corbin Carroll getting out of his recent slump and returning to form.

4. Keep the Sewald intact

Overall, the Diamondbacks bullpen has been much improved, with their 4.00 ERA the lowest since 2018. But closer Paul Sewald has not been helping, with a 4.24 ERA which belies the fact he has 22 saves in 23 save opportunities. He had struggled in non-save situations (a 6.35 ERA across 14 appearances) and has shown an almost supernatural ability to shrink leads to one run before getting the final out. While those saves are in the books, it feels unsustainable. Since 2021, of the forty-one other closers with 20+ saves in the first half, only two had an ERA of even four.

5. Robust(ish) health

I’m not putting too much faith in the return of Burnes, Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk. They have all had layoffs of well over a year, and it’d be expecting too much for them immediately to regain their pre-injury form. What I am keeping my fingers crossed for, is an absence of any more significant injuries. There’s hardly a position on the diamond where I would feel fine, replacing a current everyday player with their backup. [Maybe 1B, because how low can you go?] The news that Geraldo Perdomo is getting cortisone injections in his wrist, does not inspire confidence. But it’s a long season, and by the end of it, just about everyone will be playing hurt. As long as they’re still playing…

To be frank, a one in four shot of the playoffs seems about right. It is about twice what it was on this date in 2025, although it feels like this version of the Diamondbacks has more glaring flaws. Still, after four days without baseball, I’m more than ready for the second half, and whatever it holds!

What are our expectations for the Seattle Mariners the rest of this year? The club which finally assembled a roster preseason worthy of division title presumption, and pennant dreaming beyond mere wish-casting, has vastly underperformed. They kick off the season’s second half (or 60% mark, more accurately) a game under .500, in second place in the AL West. It is far from the worst state to enter MLB’s Re-Opening Day that Seattle has seen, even measured merely against the recent stretch of contention since 2021.

But this year, we expected better. For the first time since 2004, or perhaps even 2002, the Mariners were coming off a potent season of play and had added significant augmentation to a roster that now looked like a title contender. The fan base once maligned as “spoiled and greedy” has in fact only had perhaps three or four seasons of reasonable expectation for greatness this millennium, and this indeed was one of them.

I used to relish low expectations. I’d love to say it’s a shortcoming I’ve shaken off, but the temptation can creep in at times. After all, it’s difficult to disappoint when the bar is at your feet, and I hate to disappoint. But insulation from expectations often is a short term salve for a long-term corrosion. The accusation of being a “try-hard” rarely sat well or came from my lips. But there was a certain satisfaction in succeeding without effort, as though it were more valiant than doing so laboriously.

It’s ridiculous, self-defeating nonsense. Trying is hard, failing is too. With apologies to Yoda, there is no do without try, and do not is very different if the not is earned through effort or apathy. I wish I’d confronted those tendencies in myself sooner. Here, however, I’ve been railing against them in the Mariners for years. Trying and failing stings, but it does not inherently corrode. It’s helped me hold myself closer to the standard I want from my favorite ballclub. It’s also helped me weather failure and shortcomings.

The 2026 Mariners have been a failure to this point. They were rightfully expected, thanks to aggressive moves by the front office amplified in contrast to several tepid winters prior, to be one of the best teams in the American League. The American League has spent the better part of the year previewing this summer’s cyclospora outbreak, keeping Seattle in the mix for not only an AL West title but a first round bye. Even today, were the season to end, Seattle would be in the playoffs again, their first consecutive trips to the postseason since 2000-2001.

But I expect more. We, rightfully, expect more this season. It’s something familiar in other Seattle sports, where at least one of the Storm, Seahawks, and Sounders have been championship contenders in any given year of the last few decades. Having high expectations isn’t natural to me for the Mariners, however, and I’ve struggled with it undermining my enjoyment of moments that might have otherwise been a highlight in a lesser campaign. But I am trying, because I believe this team is capable of far more than it has shown, and I don’t wish to lower my own bar unduly.

The photo I chose for this article is a moment I’ll never forget. This season has featured many players trying, arguably to their detriment, including Cal Raleigh and Josh Naylor playing through apparent injury and struggling to generate any consistent production. It rankles me, even as moments of… cautious play from Randy Arozarena can also be irksome. Trying is opaque, it’s what you make of it, but to me, on this roster, it is always one player, best symbolized in one play. Victor Robles, out of nowhere, to save a game that wrested for good the AL West from the Houston Astros. Robles has been mercurial his whole career, but never once could his effort be questioned. 2025 began on the heels of his breakout down the 2024 stretch. Within a week and a half, he’d been sidelined with a massive injury, hurling himself into the netting at Oracle Park to attempt to keep a grasp on a game the Mariners were letting slip away to the San Francisco Giants.

Trying is hard, embarrassing, messy, painful. But the lesson thousands of motivational messages and inspirational speeches failed to register in my brain is infuriatingly, eventually, undeniably true: trying is worth it. That means having expectations for yourself, and for others. We should still expect good things from this ballclub, just as they should expect them of themselves. 65 games remain for these Mariners to right the ship and show us they are built for bigger things.

Let’s try to enjoy them together.

Welcome back to the second half of the race to October. Hope you all enjoyed the break, where the National League got blanked out by the American League, but, hey, it’s all in good fun, right?

Now we return to Truist Park, where the Atlanta Braves (55-40) will take on the Texas Rangers (49-47). Chris Sale (2.20 ERA) will be kicking things off for the Braves. As of right now, Sale has been the team’s ace and most consistent starter. Across his 17 games this season, he’s held nine wins and six losses, a 1.11 WHIP and 117 strikeouts.

The problem when Sale is on the mound isn’t his execution. In fact, he’s one of the most anticipated pitchers in the rotation to get the job done on the defensive side. It’s the inconsistencies on offense that shake his win record. Add that to the fact that the Rangers’ offense has been hitting better against left-handed pitchers as of late, and we have a toss-up of a performance.

The plan is simple but true. Sale will need the offensive production to step up big time in this second half to set the tone early and break old habits.

Facing the Braves will be Rangers’ Cal Quantrill (3.11 ERA). Quantrill has mainly been used as a reliever this season, starting in two games with a 14% strikeout rate. He’s a solid arm, but not as consistent, and sometimes limited in his pitch count when things start going awry.

On paper, the Braves’ offense has what it takes to leave with a win tonight. But it’s just a matter of what version of themselves they decide to show up with coming out of the All-Star break.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Friday, July 17, 7:15 p.m. ET

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

TV: BravesVision

Streaming: MLB.tv

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos

The Guardians made it past the All-Star break; how should we view what happened so far?

Despite being without our future Hall of Fame third baseman, José Ramírez, and the player who was leading the team in slugging percentage and home runs prior to injury, Angel Martínez, for over a month now, the Guardians have weathered the most difficult parts of their schedule and still rest atop the AL Central division tied with the White Sox. Coming into the season, expectations were once again that this would be a team that is carried by their pitching and defense, and would have to find enough offense to chalk up wins. Today, we’re going to take a look at how this Guardians team has managed those expectations thus far in 2026.

We’re going to look at the 5 major categories of team performance – starting pitching, relief pitching, hitting, base running, and defense – and briefly discuss whether the 2026 team has met general preseason expectations for each category, or fallen below/exceeded them. First, let’s look at the starting rotation.

Starting Rotation: Exceeded Expectations

There were some inconsistencies in the rotation. Slade Cecconi got off to a bad start, and Tanner Bibee has thrown a couple clunkers here and there. But Parker Messick is a legitimate Rookie of the Year contender, and both he and Gavin Williams are both in the Cy Young conversation. Joey Cantillo has quietly been incredibly solid as well. All in all, the rotation has the 7th best ERA in MLB and has thrown the 3rd most innings in MLB (just 0.1 IP behind the Dodgers in 2nd place). I think we expected them to be fairly good given the finish they had to the 2025 season, but where I believe they have exceeded expectations is specifically in the ability to get deeper into games while also maintaining a top 10 ERA in the sport.

Bullpen: Below Expectations

In 2024, the Guardians’ bullpen was so good, it almost can’t be described. They were 1st in fWAR and ERA by a large margin. In 2025, they were 3rd in MLB in both of those categories. So far in 2026, their ERA is 8th in MLB and their fWAR is 12th. This season has had a couple of uncharacteristic bullpen collapses (such as late innings with 4+ BBs leading to blown leads), and a couple of injuries haven’t helped. Hunter Gaddis missed basically all of spring training and the beginning of the regular season, and Erik Sabrowski missed the end of May and most of June as well. This season hasn’t been without its positives though. Both Daniel Espino and Franco Aleman have had promising starts to their MLB careers in 2026, and of course 2026 AL All-Star Cade Smith has been as dominant of a closer as you can ask for. While a bullpen ERA of 3.74 that’s 8th in all of MLB is definitely a good bullpen, I do believe this aspect of team performance has fallen below expectations purely because the previous 2 seasons set the expectations so high.

Hitting: Exceeded Expectations*

This section is a bit complicated because there’s a lot of nuance here, but I’ll try to go through it quickly. The 2025 Guardians offense was bottom 3 in almost every single meaningful offensive category – the wRC+ was 87 and the OPS was .670; they ranked 28th and 29th respectively. We knew in the offseason there was going to be a lot of promising youngsters filling in some holes in the offense coming into 2026, but young hitters can be incredibly volatile. For those reasons, I think the expectations were low coming into 2026. On June 13th, three of the Guardians’ five most productive hitters (at that time) all left the game with injuries. José Ramírez – the superstar, Angel Martínez – the team’s leader in home runs and slugging percentage, and Chase DeLauter – arguably the team’s best pure hitter, all were going to be out for multiple weeks. Going into that game, the team’s wRC+ was at 95, and the team OPS was 0.688, which ranked 22nd and 27th respectively in MLB. The bottom line is that still isn’t very good, but it was a meaningful improvement over 2025. Losing those players has driven the same offensive totals down over the last 4 weeks leading up to the break (wRC+ of 92 is 25th and an OPS of 0.679 is 29th). But considering they’ve been missing multiple weeks of key offensive players, I do think overall that the offense has looked better than I expected, even though the current numbers don’t really show it.

Baserunning: Met Expectations

The 2026 Guardians team is 5th in MLB in SBs at 93 and 7th in the MLB in BsR* on FanGraphs at 5.2. There really aren’t any surprises here. The team looked as aggressive on the basepaths as I would have expected. José was stealing bases left and right. And a number of other players like Travis Bazzana, Chase Delauter, and Angel Martínez also have looked great on the bases this season.

Defense: Met Expectations

This is very similar to the previous section. In 2026, the Guardians rank 8th in MLB by FRV (9) and 9th in MLB by FanGraphs Def rating (8.6). Steven Kwan is still playing elite defense in multiple OF positions. Daniel Schneemann has put himself into the conversation for the Utility Gold Glove award in the AL. And how can we not mention the catching tandem (Austin Hedges and Patrick Bailey) for not only being good defensive catchers, but also for their pitch calling and game management, which have helped the pitching staff succeed.

Our Best Kept Secret

If you’ve gotten this far, you’ve probably noticed one name that hasn’t been mentioned yet. You could even argue it’s the name that probably should be brought up more than all the others, and you aren’t wrong. I’ve been thinking about this section the entire time I’ve been putting this piece together, because if you want to talk about exceeding expectations, I don’t know if one single member of this roster personifies that more than Brayan Rocchio – a player who struggled badly in 2024 and was sent back to AAA after a difficult start to 2025, with almost every single fan begging to get him off the roster. He turned himself into a player who went into the All-Star Break ranked as the 9th best position player in the American League by fWAR (2.9). 

He could’ve been mentioned as a key player in every single one of these position player sections. A 113 wRC+. A 9.9 Def rating on FanGraphs. Stealing 15 out of 20 bases to start the season. It’s really felt like every single time our backs have been against the wall, Brayan Rocchio has been there to save the day. Clutch hitting, walkoffs, game saving defensive plays – he has done it all. I don’t think I can say enough, but if there’s one more thing I think should be said it’s this: Brayan Rocchio, I have no earthly idea how you were not invited to the All-Star Game.

Conclusion

Most preseason projections had the Guardians in the mid-upper 70s in wins. I think a lot of fans felt that those predictions underestimated this team, and so far the Guardians have proven that belief correct. Despite injuries to some of the most important players, we’re tied for 1st place in the division because of strong pitching, defense, baserunning, and some unexpected contributions from young players. 

The Guardians have the easiest strength of schedule in MLB for the second half of the season. Chase DeLauter has been on a hitting tear since returning from his injury, and José Ramírez and Angel Martínez are both expected back in a few short weeks. We aren’t all the way through these setbacks yet, but we’ve put ourselves in an excellent position heading into the second half.

Glossary:

*Base Running (BsR) is FanGraphs’ all encompassing base running statistic that turns stolen bases, caught stealings, and other base running plays (taking extra bases, being thrown out on the bases, etc) into runs above and below average. It is the combination of Weighted Stolen Base Runs (wSB), Weighted Grounded Into Double Play Runs (wGDP), and Ultimate Base Running (UBR), which are all available on the leaderboards and player pages on FanGraphs.

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Let's kick off the second half of the MLB season on a high note!

These are my top looks to leave the yard this Friday evening, featuring Alec Burleson showing value in the MLB player props. 

Here are my favorite home run props for July 17.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Alec Burleson	+390
Pete Crow-Armstrong	+232
Matt Olson	+295
💲Today's HR parlay	+6325

Home run pick: Alec Burleson (+390)

The worst-rated pitcher on the board is Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly, who has been atrocious this season, especially against left-handed hitters. Lefties are generating a 43.5% hard-hit rate and 14.3% barrel rate against him, while posting a .586 xSLG and .415 xwOBA.

St. Louis Cardinals slugger Alec Burleson enters Friday with an elite rating on Batters-Box's current season dataset, along with 100% arsenal coverage against Kelly's pitch mix. In 15 elite-rated matchups this season, Burleson has homered 20% of the time. It's a small sample, but an impressive hit rate.

Despite a slight cold streak, Burleson has still been generating a 54.4% hard-hit rate and 10.9% barrel rate over his last 60 at-bats against right-handed pitching.

I have no respect for Kelly, and I think he gets trounced in this one, starting with a Burleson nuke.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ARID, CARD

Home run pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+232)

Chicago Cubs star Pete Crow-Armstrong finds himself in a mouthwatering spot in his first game back from the All-Star break, as he draws Minnesota Twins right-hander Bailey Ober. PCA owns an elite rating on Batters-Box's current season dataset, where he also covers 100% of Ober's pitch mix.

Over his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Crow-Armstrong posted a .366 BA, .714 SLG, 1.197 OPS, .347 ISO, and a 13.3% barrel rate.

Ober has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters this season, allowing them to elevate the hell out of the baseball while generating plenty of hard contact. Over the last 60 left-handed hitters he's faced, they've produced a 44% hard-hit rate, 16.7% barrel rate, and an 81.3% elevation rate.

On top of that, they've posted a .336 xBA, .826 xSLG, and .346 xwOBA.

With that much elevation against Ober, Crow-Armstrong should be in line for extra bases, if not a nuke missile.

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MNNT, MARQ

Home run pick: Matt Olson (+295)

I am currently foaming at the mouth over another pitcher who has been giving up a ton of elevation to left handed hitters, and Atlanta Braves slugger Matt Olson stands out in this matchup.

Cal Quantrill takes the mound for the Texas Rangers tonight, and he has struggled mightily against left-handed bats this season. He's allowed them to produce a 42% hard-hit rate, 16% barrel rate, and a 75.4% elevation rate. They also own a .504 xSLG and .390 xwOBA against him.

In a small sample of 42 left-handed hitters faced on the road, Quantrill has allowed a 69.2% fly-ball rate, 11.5% line-drive rate, and 30% hard-hit rate.

Prior to the break, Olson was swinging one of the hottest bats in baseball against right-handed pitching. Over his last 30 at-bats, he owns a .593 SLG, .860 OPS, .408 ISO, while producing a 55.6% hard-hit rate and a 16.7% barrel rate.

We all know what Olson is capable of, and with Quantrill getting destroyed by left-handed hitters, I have to back the Braves star.

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: BravesVsn, CW33

Today’s HR parlay

Alec Burleson	Bet Now +6325
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Matt Olson

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Royals put a frustrating first half behind them and open the second half by hosting the Padres. This is just the fourth time ever the Padres have come to town, with the Royals dropping the series the last time they played at the K in 2024.

The Padres have a $200+ million payroll, but after a hot 19-9 start, they have struggled. They had an eight-game losing streak in late June/early July, but won five of eight heading into the break.

San Diego Padres (48-48) vs. Kansas City Royals (38-59) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Padres: 3.95 runs scored/game (30th in MLB), 4.40 runs allowed/game (12th)

Royals: 4.24 runs scored/game (21st), 5.14 runs allowed/game (27th)

The Padres’ lineup has been mysteriously bad this year. Fernando Tatis Jr. went 55 games to begin the year without a home run. Manny Machado got off to a dreadful start, but is hitting .279/.372/.586 with eight home runs in his last 30 games to get his batting average over the Mendoza Line. Gavin Sheets is hitting just .176/.263/.235 against lefties, but is hitting .279/.377/.543on the road. Xander Bogaerts has a 58.5 percent groundball rate, second-highest among qualified hitters.

Ty France is a Royals-killer, hitting .368/.445/.604 with eight home runs in 39 games in his career against them. Former Royals catcher Freddy Fermin is hitting just .152/.252/.268 in 58 games and has been out with a concussion.

Only the Nationals have stolen more bases than the Padres. The Padres generally rate well defensively, particularly Bogaerts at shortstop.

Michael King is 12th in the National League in ERA, but he has the ninth-highest walk rate among qualified starters. King has a reverse split this year, with lefties hitting just .201/.288/.299 against him. He throws a sinker, change up, sweeper, and a 94 mph four-seamer.

Griffin Canning had a nice season with the Mets last year, but he has been a mess with the Padres this year. He has the third-worst ERA (6.47) of any pitcher with at least ten starts. He has pitched more than five innings just once this year, and has been used as a “bulk reliever” in some recent appearances. Opponents are hitting .333 against his change up this year. The Royals have not yet announced a starter for Saturday, although Stephen Kolek could be activated off the family emergency list.

Germán Márquez had a 6.70 ERA last year with the Rockies, the second-worst of any pitcher with at least 100 innings. He moved on to the Padres and got off to a decent start before missing two months with a forearm injury. He has pitched just 12 innings in his three starts since returning. Lefties are hitting .273/.377/.557 against the right-hander this year.

The Padres’ bullpen has a 3.68 ERA, sixth-lowest in baseball after leading all of baseball last year. Mason Miller has been the best reliever in baseball, according to fWAR, striking out a ridiculous 48.5 percent of all batters he has faced. Yuki Matsui has a 14.9 percent walk rate, ninth-highest among relievers, and a 58.8 percent flyball rate that is third-highest. Adrian Morejon has a 64.4 percent groundball rate, third-highest in baseball. Kyle Hart has given up ten runs in his last 11.2 innings.

The Padres have the kind of roster that should be competing, but they have failed to turn that talent into results. Their negative run differential and 43-53 Pythagorean record suggest this team has been fortunate to remain in the mix. Their offensive struggles may be just what the Royals’ pitching staff needs to face, but if the Royals find themselves down late, they’ll have to face a shutdown bullpen.

The Colorado Rockies are a team in the midst of a rebuild. With this in mind, the staff at Purple Row thought it would be useful to revisit the “State of the Position” series that we ran in March to see where things stand. We’ve asked authors of the spring articles to re-evaluate their earlier remarks with an eye toward the August 3 trade deadline.

Entering the season, it seemed like Willi Castro would be the latest veteran to try to be the Rockies second baseman. Hoping for a resurgence, Castro, a former All-Star with good baserunning and utility skills, signed a two-year, $12.8 million deal with the Rockies in January.

I had Castro pegged as the starter with Edouard Julien, Ryan Ritter and Adael Amador rotating as the backups. Instead, Castro has turned out to be the true utility player the Rockies love, especially under the new front office. He’s made 38 starts at second base, but that comes in second to Julien’s 48. Together, they have started 87.8% of Colorado’s games at second base.

They have added speed and production with mixed results defensively. But so far, the additions have translated to an upgrade at the position. In 2025, Colorado’s second basemen combined to rank No. 29 in on-base percentage (.267) and OPS (.550), No. 28 in batting average (.213) and slugging percentage (.283) and tied for No. 26 in homers (eight) and RBI (53).

This year, at the All-Star break, the Rockies second basemen have combined to climb up 20 spots to No. 9 in on-base percentage (.332), and improved to No. 14 in RBI (38), No. 16 in batting average (. 246) and homers (16), No. 17 in OPS (.690) and No. 22 in slugging percentage (.358).

While a true comparison will have to wait until the end of the season, the improvement in the power and ability to get on base is remarkable. 

The 2B duo

Castro has out-performed Julien at the plate this season, while also making 35 starts at four other positions (shortstop, third base, first base and left field), in addition to spending a little time in center field. On any given day, he’s got around 10 gloves with him and prides himself on being “prepared for anything.” 

Castro is hitting .260/.251/.378 with a .709 OPS, seven homers, 13 doubles, 37 RBI and 40 runs scored. He is just one homer away from tying the total of all eight players who played second base for the Rockies last season. His most recent homer came in the form of a two-run shot vs. the Giants on July 9

His sprint speed is in the 77th percentile at 28.3, even if it doesn’t show up tremendously in his stolen base total of six. While his arm strength also ranks in the 77th percentile at 88.5, his range (OAA) is -3 (20th percentile). 

Julien doesn’t have the power, the versatility, the speed, or the defense that Castro does, but he does own an effective plate approach with an 18.9% chase rate, which is one of the best in MLB. Whereas Castro has a 27.8% strikeout rate and an 8.8% walk rate, Julien walks at a 13.8% rate and strikes out 25.9% of the time. 

Unfortunately for Julien, whom the Rockies acquired in a trade with the Twins in January, it doesn’t always translate to production. He is hitting .222/.335/.366 with three homers, seven doubles, one triple, 33 runs scored and 20 RBI. He lacks the sprint speed at 26.7 (32nd percentile) and his defense leaves much to be desired with a -4 OAA (11th percentile) and 77.3 arm strength. 

That being said, he’s still capable of some highlight-reel plays.

Julien had a short stretch where he was hot in the leadoff spot, but has dropped down in the lineup. Meanwhile, Castro has worked out nicely as the leadoff bat when the Rockies face lefties.

The backups and future

Three other Rockies have slotted in at second base so far this season. Chad Stevens was called up for a few weeks in May and June, making seven starts. Utilityman Tyler Freeman has made four starts, and Ritter made one start in March. None have done enough, or had sufficient opportunities, to make a mark.

Ritter and Amador have both struggled with injuries and bounced around the farm system in their rehab assignments. Amador, who missed some time with a leg injury, has put up good stats in Triple-A (.257/.363/.393), but he has yet to prove they can hold up at the MLB level. Ritter has only played 27 games with the Isotopes, joining them after recovering from an ankle injury on June 16. He has also played a bit of left field in an effort to diversify his fielding profile.

Barring trades, the Rockies second base crew is set. Castro, 29, has one more year on his contract. Still pre-arbitration eligible, Julien, who is 27 and making $792,750 this season, will remain under team control until at least 2029.

Depending on how the season plays out, and if the Rockies mantra of versatility sticks around, the Rockies could have the kinds of players they want in Castro and Julien. Of course, the second base bar is low considering the struggles of the past few seasons. Julien and Castro, or a player yet to be determined, could continue to raise that bar even higher as the team fights to become a contender. For now, the Julien-Castro duo is part of the reason why the Rockies are playing better baseball in 2026 than they did in 2025.

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