Category: Baseball

It’s somewhat of a miracle to still be writing about a Salvador Perez season in 2026. I really thought he was done after his 2023 season, when he was a below-average hitter with a negative fWAR. Remarkably, Perez bounced back with a great 2024, followed by a fine 2025 campaign. It was easy to believe that Perez could maintain at least his 2025 production and be a more than positive contributor to a playoff-bound Royals team. Instead, 2026 would be the season Father Time would finally catch up with the Royals legend.

Salvy agreed to a two-year, $25 million extension last offseason, keeping the captain in Kansas City. The highlight of his 2026 baseball season came before MLB play began. He was the captain of Team Venezuela, which won the World Baseball Classic in a thrilling and charged 3-2 game against the United States. I was cheering for the USA in the game, but was extremely happy for Perez and Maikel Garcia to get the chance to win that tournament and celebrate with their countrymen. The WBC remains awesome, and I hope it continues to grow in popularity.

Once the MLB season started, things were much less exciting for Perez and the Royals. Just like last season, Perez got off to a very slow start at the plate. Unlike last season, his Statcast peripherals supported his poor results. Through the All-Star break, the veteran had a .595 OPS, which was 41% below league average. Despite his struggles, Salvy was in the lineup nearly every day. He didn’t catch for a while because his hip was bothering him, but he continued to play most days despite his terrible numbers.

To his credit, he was much more successful in the second half of the season. On the strength of improved contact at the plate, which led to a higher average and more power, Salvy posted a 105 wRC+ in the second half of the year. Even with his marked improvement, Perez finished the season with a 77 wRC+ and -1.1 fWAR. Both of those numbers are the worst of Salvy’s career.

Perez did not catch very much this season. He was behind the dish for 44 games, compared to 80 at DH and 25 at first base. When he was catching, he showed a real penchant for knowing when to use the ABS system. He challenged 65 times, winning 46 of them, good for the sixth-highest win percentage among catchers making challenges. He didn’t get enough reps for this to really matter, and his framing remains poor. Still, it was legitimately cool to see his knowledge of the strike zone (behind the plate at least) put to good use.

Salvy continues to play a lot, which could have been a much bigger issue this season if the Royals had been near contention. The Royals are planning on competing next season, and one way for them to show that they are serious about that would be to downshift Perez to a more part-time role. If Salvy wasn’t a Royals legend, I would be willing to make the argument that they just need to walk away from him regardless of the money they owe him. That seems extremely unlikely to happen, and I don’t think they should.

However, Perez should really be a part-time platoon player at this point, helping out against lefties and catching every now and then. Nothing in Salvy’s history as a player suggests to me that he would be amenable to this, but I have no special insight other than observing that he really likes to play every day. It’s up to Matt Quatraro and his staff to figure out how to balance personalities while giving the team the best chance to succeed next year.

It seems likely that 2027 will be Perez’s last season on the Royals, and I want a storybook ending for him. It’s been a joy and a privilege watching Salvy play baseball all these years. What 2026 reminds us is that time catches up to everyone, and we witnessed that happen in a real way to Perez this year.

Tarik Skubal is probably the best pitcher in baseball. Since July of 2023, the lefty has posted a 2.47 ERA over 626.1 IP, backed by a 2.70 xERA, a 2.42 FIP, and a K-BB% of 26.7%, good for 21.3 fWAR. All of those metrics rank as the best in baseball over the time period in question, most by a not insignificant amount. He’s won two Cy Youngs (2024 and 2025), a pitcher Triple Crown (2024), and a record breaking $32M in his final arbitration-eligible season (2026). Skubal remains in his prime at 29 and he now enters free agency free of the burden of draft pick compensation after being traded at midseason from Detroit to LA.

That resumé arguably makes Skubal one of the most valuable free agent pitchers of the 2000s, if not all time. Gerrit Cole had a better platform year in 2019, but had not been as dominant over a multi-year period. Yoshinobu Yamamoto was younger but completely unproven in the majors. David Price had a longer track record of being very good but a shorter track record of being elite when he signed with Boston in 2016. Max Scherzer had a similar shape of production but hadn’t reached the highs Skubal had. Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg never reached free agency. CC Sabathia might have the most credible case, but pitching has changed so much in the last 10-15 years that any direct comparison to a free agent from more than 15 years ago is difficult to make. It’s unsurprising then that Skubal is expected to break all free agent contract records for pitchers, likely signing for something in the $350M-500M range.

Despite those bona fides, I do not think this is a free agent the Mets should seriously pursue. Three primary concerns loom large; Skubal’s injury risk, the general performance of this class of player, and the Mets’ position amidst a changing CBA.

You may have noted as we lauded Skubal’s performance over the past couple years that we set a pretty arbitrary start date. That’s because Skubal missed the first half of 2023 recovering from flexor tendon surgery, which he underwent in August of 2022. Then in 2026, Skubal had another procedure, this time to remove loose bodies from his left elbow. Now, to his (and his surgeons’) credit, Skubal made a remarkably fast recovery from that procedure. But that’s two operations on his left elbow in the last four years, on top of the Tommy John surgery he underwent in college in 2016. Recall that the average shelf life of a TJS is somewhere between 5 and 10 years, a range that Skubal is now on the back end of. There are a bunch of at least orange and possible outright red injury warning signs here, even more so than for the typical pitcher.

Even beyond the Skubal-specific injury risk, this class of pitchers—high-end starters entering their 30s—are a much less successful cohort than you’d expect. Here’s a view of post age-30 fWAR, segmented by the fWAR accrued prior to age 30:

^{Only includes pitchers who appeared in a game from 2000-2026}

To put this into words, even if you’re a very good pitcher who has posted more than 20 fWAR prior to your age-30 season (Tarik Skubal has 24.7 career fWAR), the mean expectation of your age-30 and above career is 10.8 fWAR. It’s only a little better if we narrow things to even better players who posted more than 30, 40, or 50 fWAR prior to their age 30 season.

Sure, Justin Verlander has had an incredible run in his 30s (and 40s). So did Max Scherzer for much of the last decade. Chris Sale is still going. Zack Greinke posted nearly as many wins after 30 as he did before, and Roy Halladay in fact surpassed his pre-age-30 production. But Felix Hernandez was basically done at 30. So was Ben Sheets, and Madison Bumgarner, and Stephen Strasburg, and Brandon Webb, and Matt Cain, and Tim Lincecum. Roy Oswalt, Jake Peavy, Johnny Cueto, and David Price were just okay (<15 fWAR after age 30), and they’re roughly average outcomes for this cohort. Time and pitcher injury risk are undefeated, and the bell tolls for many pitcher’s career—or at least their time as a top-level ace—well before you’d like.

Now, we should caveat this analysis. This is an extraordinarily rudimentary look at things; more granular age cohorts or use of deeper metrics beyond surface level fWAR would surely provide a more accurate picture. This class of players also has the benefit of typically being good or injured; it’s rare that such a player is plodding along with middling but healthy production, clogging a roster spot and confounding attempts to improve the team. It’s more likely they’re either pitching like an ace or simply unavailable, and that sort of downside is preferable to the alternative.

Still, is guaranteeing a player who, by the median / mean performance of comparable players, is likely to give you ~15 wins over the remainder of their career, more than $350M a good idea? That’s more than $20M per win (again, an extraordinarily rudimentary way to look at this, but an acceptable heuristic) with significant additional downside risk, a steep price even by modern free agency standards.

Zooming out one more level, the potential changes to the CBA must be considered as well. The league’s proposals to date have included a cap-and-floor system, with a proposed cap of $245.3M. For reference, the Mets’ payroll in 2026 was more than $100M higher than that ($346.7M), and with Bo Bichette opting in none of the big money is falling off the books until next offseason.

A hard cap system is basically a non-starter for the players and it’s highly unlikely one gets adopted. There’s also a chance big spenders would be grandfathered in in some way, perhaps given a period of a few years to get below the cap. However, the current course of negotiations is headed towards harsher penalties—likely draft pick based—on the highest spending teams. If you’re the Mets, and you’re guaranteeing nearly $100M per year to Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor for the next 5 years and have other gaps in the roster that still need to be filled, cramming in yet another top-of-the-market deal seems foolhardy, if not downright impossible.

So yes, Tarik Skubal is quite possibly the best starter in baseball, and having him on the 2027 Mets would be both very fun and beneficial to the Mets’ World Series chances. But the combination of injury risk, cohort performance, and broader roster construction implications makes this one opportunity the Mets should probably pass on.

Tate Southiesene
4-for-15, 4R, 3 BB, SB

Just another strong week for Tate Southisene who struggled defensively – committing a trio of errors in a single game last week, but continued to get on-base. There has been lot of discussion about his position of the future, and while this writer believes he can be average to maybe below average at the position, his offensive upside far outweighs and allows you to still have excellent value from the position. So while he struggled in the field, Tate still got on base 7 times last week, including three walks. Broken down even more – he got on base three of the four games he played, including getting on-base at least twice the other three games he played in.

Owen Carey
6-for-16, 3 BB, 3 RBI, 2B, SB

Owen Carey broke out in a big way last week, getting on-base NINE times last week. While he was susceptible at times at the top or bottom of the zone, he didn’t expand east-west, another incredibly encouraging sign from the 20 year old outfield prospect. While he got off to a slow start, Owen has really started to pick things up – hitting .302 with an .853 OPS. He also has exhibited some of the highest bat speed in the league, adding intrigue to his profile.

Isaiah Drake
7-for-10, HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB

There may not have been a hotter player last week than Isaiah Drake who only appeared in three games but still got on-base NINE times thanks to hitting a cool .700 on the week. Similarly to Owen Carey, Isaiah got off to a slow start but is now hitting .326 with an .815 OPS making up for lost time due to injury. It appears as though he has updated to the offseason league as well because the quality of his at bats have improved – not chasing, and using his loud tools to wreak havoc on pitching staffs.

Tyler LaPorte
2G, 2.1IP 1H 1ER 2BB 1K

Tyler LaPorte finally blinked, giving up an earned run. Yes, a single earned run. Something he had not done throughout the rest of his time in the AFL. He made up for it, in his second appearance, pitching 1.2 pristine innings – not allowing a hit or a walk. In a league pretty much designed for offense, Tyler has done extremely well, and showcased improved command with his nasty stuff.

Tanner Bauman
1IP 0H 0R 1BB 1K

Another zero for Tanner Bauman, as he worked around a walk to work a spotless innings. After a bit of a disastrous start to the AFL where he was being hit hard, Tanner has reined it in, exhibiting much improved command and executing his pitches significantly better. While he doesn’t have the stuff of a Tyler LaPorte, he’s tunneling well and executing the game plan.

Logan Samuels
2G, 2.1IP 1H 0R 0BB 1K

A pair of strong outings for Logan Samuels who gave up just one hit across two outings. The former starting pitcher has done well adjusting to the bullpen, and while the stuff has improved a bit, it’s mainly been the execution that has helped him of late.

Owen Hackman
1IP 1H 0R 0BB 1K

A surprising single inning of work for Owen Hackman who has taken to the bullpen role very well. The former starter took to the bullpen and had a strong 2026, continuing to show impressive strikeout rates without walking too many hitters. The biggest drawback has been the contact he’s given up, but Owen has done a solid job of limiting it in the AFL.

Briggs McKenzie
2.2IP 7H 6ER 2BB 3K

A frustrating start for Briggs McKenzie who got knocked around quickly – getting into the stretch by his second batter of the game. Briggs mechanics out of the stretch need some improvement, as his command lags well behind where it is out of the windup. It’s been a very weird AFL for Briggs who has looked like one of the best arms one start, and then struggles to get out of an inning his next. The biggest thing for him this period has been building up arm strength and just pitching, which to his credit he has done quite well with.

The San Diego Padres announced roster moves on Sunday. Some of the moves were expected, but there were a couple of surprises. The team announced it picked up the $2.5 million option on left-hander Kyle Hart and that left-handers Yuki Matsui and Wandy Peralta opted into their 2027 deals.

The Padres officially announced they declined the option on right-hander Nick Pivetta while designated hitter Miguel Andujar declined his mutual option and the team declined mutual options on Griffin Canning and Lucas Giolito. It has to be said that San Diego could try to re-sign any one of these players on a new mutually agreed to deal, but considering the myriad of health issues and ineffectiveness that hampered these players at different points of the season, it is unlikely.

The decision to pick up Hart’s option is can be looked at both ways. He is a left-hander with starting experience. Hart had moments last season where he was very good, but he also had moments where he was very bad. He served as a long reliever on a couple of occasions, but the thought may be that getting bullpen arms that are familiar with the system at what may prove to be a low dollar amount is the way to go, especially if the Padres want to re-sign Adrian Morejon.

The Matsui decision may help in the recruitment pitch for Morejon as well. With the Japanese left-handed back in the bullpen, it’s another reason for Morejon to want to remain with the only MLB team he has ever known. He will no doubt be one of if not the most sought after bullpen arm on the market and teams like the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Toronto Blue Jays and the Los Angeles Dodgers were throw an unknown amount of money at him to add him to their roster. The hope for the Friar Faithful is that Morejon really does want to be in San Diego and that general manager A.J. Preller can convince new owners Jose E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones to make him an offer. Will it be enough? That remains to be seen, but letting him go without a fight would be a misstep in their effort to show the fans they will invest in bringing a championship to San Diego.

Padres News:

• The Gold Glove Award winners were announced and the Padres were shutout with Ty France and Freddy Fermin missing out on hardware.

• Dustin Harris proved to be a solid addition to the San Diego roster last season and should have an impact in 2027. Read how Lincoln Zdunich of Gaslamp Ballgraded Harris’ efforts in 2026.

Baseball News:

• The 45-day negotiating window for Japanese star Teruaki Sato opened Sunday. Right-hander Hiromi Itoh was also posted for MLB teams to consider.

• It’s the offseason and the rumor mill is starting to churn. Here are some storylines to follow.

• The San Francisco Giants and the Washington Nationals agreed to a trade.

• Former Houston Astro Brad Ausmus could be considered for managerial opening in Houston.

We knew this was coming, didn’t we? The defensive brilliance of Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, and Caleb Durbin was so evident all season long that last night’s announcement of the 2026 Gold Glove winners was a mere formality as far as the Red Sox were concerned. As expected, all three took home with award, the first for Durbin, but the the second and third consecutive awards for Ceddy and Wily, respectively.

Only five players in Red Sox history have won more than Wilyer’s 3 Gold Gloves. But he still remains 5 behind the team’s all-time leader. If you can’t already guess who that is, here’s a hint: he played the same position as Abreu.

Now we turn our attention to the American League Platinum Glove, which will be handed out on Friday. The Platinum Glove, which goes to the single best fielder in the league at any position, has been held in pretty high esteem since it debuted in 2011. But should it be?

Gold Gloves themselves were viewed as something of a joke for a while. For years the award was voted on by a pool of MLB managers and coaches and, frankly, they did a terrible job. That isn’t all that surprising considering that managers would see some players only 6 times a year. More often than not the award went to the best hitter at each position rather than the best fielder — everyone remembers the infamous 1999 AL first base Gold Glove that was given to Rafael Palmeiro, despite the fact that he played only 28 games at first base that year.

In 2013, a selection of sabremetricians was added to the voting pool, which has given the award renewed legitimacy. But with the Platinum Glove, the powers-that-be went in the opposite direction and made it into a fan vote. The fans have to select the Platinum Glove winner from amongst the Gold Glove winners, so there’s never been a truly egregious winner. Nevertheless it seems strange to deliberately strengthen the legitimacy of the Gold Gloves, while more or less ignoring legitimacy as a concern whatsoever with respect the Platinum.

Oh well, it won’t the only thing MLB does this winter that I’m going to complain about…

Talk about the Gold Gloves, take a guess at the Red Sox all-time leader, and use this space to discuss whatever else you want. And as always, be good to one another.

Team news

[Dbacks.com] D-backs Win Club-Record-Tying 3 Gold Gloves with Moreno, Carroll and Perdomo – The Arizona Diamondbacks have a franchise-record-tying 3 winners (first time with 3 position players) for the 2026 National League Rawlings Gold Glove Awards with 2-time winner C Gabriel Moreno and first-time winners RF Corbin Carroll and SS Geraldo Perdomo. Since 2017, the D-backs’ 14 Gold Gloves are tied for second in the Majors with the Guardians, behind the Cubs (15). Moreno, Carroll and Perdomo are now up for Rawlings’ “best of the best” Platinum Glove Award® for the National League’s best defender. The fan-vote honor is live at rawlings.com through Thu., Nov. 5 at 9:59 p.m. PHX/11:59 p.m. ET.

[SI] Geraldo Perdomo’s 1st Gold Glove Shows D-backs Made Right Shortstop Choice – Considering the fact that his bat — which broke out to near-MVP levels in the 2026 season — had a relative down season, it’s encouraging to see Perdomo provide just over 5.0 WAR in a year where he wasn’t destroying the baseball… Perdomo has been viewed as a captain-like figure for manager Torey Lovullo and an emotional leader in Arizona’s clubhouse. But the shortstop position is no easy task. It can make even some of the more sure-handed athletes look like minor-leaguers. Not only has Perdomo excelled and grown into a staple of the Diamondbacks’ identity, he’s taking one of the hardest defensive jobs on the field and making it his own.

[Dbacks.com] Could 10-time Gold Glove winner Arenado switch positions? – As much as Arenado fights against Father Time with an intense work ethic, at 35 years old, he is also realistic about how many games he can play each year. “I think it’s taken a toll on him physically a little bit,” Hazen said. “So we’re trying to be mindful of that.” From the Diamondbacks’ perspective, having Arenado play first base at times would give them a bigger pool of players to choose from as they look to add another bat this winter. “It could help us, depending on what’s out there in the market for available players, by giving us more flexibility,” Hazen said. “It opens the door for us, externally, to consider different ways to improve the team.”

[Yardbarker] 3 questions facing the Arizona Diamondbacks this offseason – Will second baseman Ketel Marte be on the Opening Day roster? His stock took a hit in 2026. Marte had a down year by his standards, posting a .249/.316/.432 batting line with 22 homers and 31 doubles in his 624 plate appearances. He disappeared in August, missing a game in Boston before being placed on the Restricted List and, eventually, a stint on the Injured List. Marte’s maturity issues, down season, and the fact that he will earn his 10-5 rights in April make moving Marte a difficult proposition.

[Arizona Sports] Diamondbacks expected to listen to Ketel Marte trade offers once again – For the second straight offseason, the Arizona Diamondbacks are expected to listen to trade inquiries for star second baseman Ketel Marte, according to Arizona Sports’ John Gambadoro. The D-backs believe changes are needed after a third straight season of narrowly missing the postseason. Gambadoro reports they will “gauge the temperature on trade interest in players on their roster,” including Marte. Talks to this point have been surface level, but November could be busier than normal for player movement given the threat of a potential lockout when the collective bargaining agreement ends on Dec. 1.

[Burn City Sports] D-Backs’ Merrill Kelly gives trick-or-treaters a surprise they won’t forget – For most trick-or-treaters, Halloween night is all about collecting as much candy as possible. But for a few lucky visitors at Merrill Kelly’s house, the Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher had something a little different waiting at the door. Instead of handing out chocolate bars and handfuls of sweets, Kelly gave trick-or-treaters signed cleats to those who stopped by his house on Halloween. In a TikTok video posted by user talariarider_x3, Kelly is seen greeting trick-or-treaters and giving away the autographed footwear, leaving young fans stunned by the surprise.

And, elsewhere…

[AP] Japanese players Sato, Taira, and Itoh enter MLB posting system – Infielder Teruaki Sato of the Central League’s Hanshin Tigers and right-handers Kaima Taira of the Saitama Seibu Lions and Hiromi Itoh of the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters in the Pacific League are entering Major League Baseball’s posting system and will be available to teams to sign as a free agent from Monday until Dec. 16. Infielder Si-Hwan Roh of South Korea’s Hanwha Eagles is entering the posting system and can sign as a free agent until Dec. 1. Sato, a left-handed-hitting 27-year-old third baseman and occasional outfielder, hit .306 with 39 homers and 106 RBIs this year, winning the Central League’s Triple Crown.

[Reddit] In 2027, Nippon Professional Baseball’s Central League will officially adopt the Designated Hitter rule, making it universal across all major professional baseball leagues – Since the National League adopted the DH in 2022, NPB’s Central League has been the last major league that required pitchers to hit. The NPB season ended on October 28, after the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks swept the Yokohama DeNA BayStars 4-0 to win the Japan Series. Like the World Series, the Japan Series uses a 2-3-2 format, and the Central League’s BayStars had home field advantage. Thus Game 2 of the 2026 Japan Series, played on October 25 at Yokohama Stadium, was likely the last baseball game played in any major professional league to not feature the designated hitter.

[MLB] Who’s the best free-agent starter after Skubal? Let’s dive in – There is no doubt about the top free-agent starting pitcher available this winter: Tarik Skubal, a two-time Cy Young Award winner whose elite stuff remained intact following a remarkably quick return from in-season elbow surgery. But the identity of the next-best starter is far less clear, adding uncertainty to the most consequential cohort of the free-agent market. The drop after Skubal is significant, but there should still be value for teams that choose wisely. The question isn’t necessarily who was the best pitcher in 2026. It’s which starter offers the best combination of near-term performance, durability, upside and age-adjusted risk over a likely multi-year contract.

Hope everyone had a good Halloween! For October, given the lack of playoff baseball, I spent the month watching 31 horror films from 31 different countries. That was… quite the experience. Here’s the one from Ukraine: the full review has a link at the bottom to all 31.

The Witch: Revenge (2024)

• Rating: B
• Dir: Andriy Kolesnyk
• Star: Tetiana Malkova, Olena Khokhlatkina, Pavel Vishnyakov, Taras Tsimbalyuk

The local tag-line for the movie translates into English as “This is a film where a Ukrainian witch kicks the shit out of Russians.” Straightforward and to the point, considering that the two countries have been actively at war with each other for close to five years now… It’s not the first film to use horror as some kind of coping mechanism for conflict. Infamously, the director of A Serbian Film has claimed it was a commentary on the effect of the wars in the region. But there is typically some kind of distancing involved. The Witch may be the first horror/war movie to come out, while the bloodshed in question is still an ongoing activity.

Full review

Mauricio Dubon won another Gold Glove for the “utility position” yesterday. Good for him! It wasn’t a standout defensive year for him overall (+3 FRV in ~460 innings at shortstop; +1 FRV in 125 innings in center field, and +0 FRV in ~680 innings in the outfield corners), but there are also aren’t a lot of utility guys playing at a high defensive level either, so it was probably well-deserved.

But, it raised a different question for me: what even are the criteria to qualify for the utility Gold Glove, and more importantly, what should they be? I remember I did the post when the finalists were announced, and Dubon’s two co-finalists didn’t even feel like they were really “utility guys” — Jared Triolo had ~260 innings at third, ~530 at shortstop, and fewer than 30 at other positions (first base, right field, along with a lone inning in center); Ildemaro Vargas did technically appear at six positions, including pitcher, but exceeded 35 innings at just first and second.

Should a utility player have to play both infield and outfield (and/or catcher), or are utility infielders acceptable? What should be the innings cutoffs for a position to “count?” It doesn’t look any of this is outright defined; further, the utility Gold Glove is the only one where instead of a 75/25 split of manager/coach vote versus data, it’s just entirely data-oriented (though with unclear criteria and cutoffs).

So, I’m just throwing it out there: if you were designing this from the ground up, how would you determine who even qualified to get one?

Good morning.

Kennedi Landry writes that Ezequiel Duran is now a Gold Glove winner as the American League’s best utility fielder.

Shawn McFarland writes that Duran went from afterthought to indispensable for the Rangers in 2026 and now he’s a Gold Glover.

And, Dayn Perry checks out the top 25 potential trade candidates this offseason where you will find Jacob deGrom and Corey Seager with Texas looking for an off-ramp on spending.

Have a nice day!

Some players make an instant impact when traded to the Yankees. Some players take time to get their feet under them playing for the most heavily scrutinized team in the league. And then you get those players who struggle out of the gate upon joining the Yankees and never get close to the player they were before switching teams — essentially a bust from day one. Jake Bird certainly falls into this final category.

Grade: F

2026 Stats (Yankees): 36 games, 30.1 IP, 5.93 ERA (71 ERA+), 4.35 FIP, 4.23 xFIP, 22.3 K%, 7.9 BB%, 0.1 fWAR, -0.4 rWAR

2027 Contract Status: Entering second year of arbitration eligibility, projected to earn $1.3 million.

As the 2025 MLB Trade Deadline approached, teams lined up to make a run on relief pitching, contenders hoping to shore up their bullpens in advance of the postseason. The Yankees were by far the most proactive team when it came to reinforcing their relief corps, trading for a pair of closers in David Bednar and Camilo Doval as well as someone who should have been a potent middle inning threat in Bird. They were far from the only team interested in his services — he was a spin rate darling with multiple breaking balls and three-plus years of team control. As such, acquiring Bird required the Yankees to part with the highest-ranked prospect they would deal at the deadline despite the superior track records of Bednar and Doval, New York sending second baseman Roc Riggio — their fourth round selection in the 2023 MLB Draft and a consensus top-25 organizational prospect — alongside Ben Shields to Colorado to complete the deal.

Bird’s Yankees career could not have gotten off to a worse start as he gave up a grand slam against the Marlins in his team debut and a walk-off homer to the Rangers three days later. He was swiftly demoted to Triple-A and would not sniff the majors for the rest of the 2025 season. However, after working with the pitching coaches over the winter, Bird was named to the 2026 Opening Day roster with a shot at some serious redemption.

That redemption never came. Though he opened his season with four straight scoreless appearances, Bird surrendered three runs to the Marlins without recording an out on April 5th and then coughed up another three runs in one inning against the Angels a week later. This resulted in a 12-day demotion to Triple-A with Bird sporting an ugly 7.71 ERA in eight appearances totaling seven innings.

After working on his mechanics in the minors, Bird was called back up for a sustained stretch in the bigs. He acquitted himself well, pitching to a 2.91 ERA in 25 appearances totaling 21.2 innings, though a 4.48 FIP hinted that regression could be on the horizon. Indeed, Bird began to stumble again in mid-July, allowing two runs in 0.2 innings on July ninth before suffering what would ultimately prove the death knell of his Yankees career — five runs on four hits and two walks while recording just one out in an ugly 8-2 loss to the Dodgers on July 19th.

He was promptly sent back down to Triple-A and would not return, getting traded in the middle of a relief appearance with the RailRiders on August 2nd. The Yankees sent Bird alongside Yovanny Cruz, Ben Grable, and Jack Cebert to the relief-starved Nationals for Luis García Jr., who at the time was leading the NL in slugging at .564. In this sense, Bird’s greatest contribution in his year with the Yankees was to net the Bombers the immediately-impactful García, whose seven home runs and 104 wRC+ helped stabilize their ailing offense, halting the summer swoon to clinch a postseason berth.

I’m not sure why it all went so wrong for Bird in New York, given he profiled as exactly the type of pitcher that Matt Blake and the rest of the pitching coaches would love to work with. Bird is a spin rate and pitch movement specialist who frequently placed among the league leaders in sinker vertical break and curveball horizontal break. You might be tempted to say he was the victim of bad luck as evidenced by more than two-run drop-off from his ERA (7.24) to his FIP (5.02) during his Yankees tenure, but this doesn’t tell the whole story. There was a common pattern to his blow up outings, Bird getting pulled after putting multiple base runners on, only for the inheriting pitcher to immediately allow most if not all to score. The Yankees simply did not trust him to get out of his self-made jams, the misfortune entering when the guy that replaced him failed to do any better.

At the end of the day, despite all that movement, Bird was never precise enough with his sinker and curveball command. Too often his misses would be over the heart of the plate rather than a waste pitch out of the zone. This led hitters to bat .305 with a pair of homers against the sinker and .526 with another pair of homers against the curveball. This tells me part of the issue was with pitch selection and sequencing as well — his sweeper and four-seamer both held opponents below the Mendoza line and I wonder how things might have turned out had he stuck with those two pitches. Regardless, Bird never looked likely to break into Aaron Boone’s circle of trust, and the Yankees made the right move flipping him for a difference maker rather than try to force something that just wasn’t there.

We should start again by going back over where we have been and where we are going. Simply put, with the lockout coming up, there will likely be little movement in terms of trades, free agent signings, and other player news. I am doing a deep dive into the Hall of Fame Index. Obviously, it is not something for everyone, but the lab is a place where people that are more into analytics can go and get some more in-depth analysis than what you might typically find on the internet. It is also a place where people that don’t know much about analytics can learn a little on the fly.

Admittedly, diving into the gritty details on baseball history and the Hall of Fame isn’t for everyone. What the index does is use a systematic approach to evaluating past and current players. We look at the index itself which we did in parts one and two. We look at more advanced offensive and defensive statistics. We are evaluating current players like Jose Altuve to the Hall of Fame average in this edition. The final edition will look at the more traditional counting numbers that casual fans like to look at.

Keep in mind that the Hall of Fame average excludes the very top and very bottom of the Hall of Fame register and focuses on the ten players in the middle. If we were to take the entire group the average might actually be similar, but we want to remove players that are not particularly relevant as points of comparison. The general idea is to identify who Jose Altuve (or Marcus Semien and Ketel Marte) are most similar to. Are those players Hall of Famers? If so, then the current player (Altuve in this case) should be a Hall of Famer.

Offensive Statistics

	OPS+	Rbaser	rOBA	OW%	RC
Jose Altuve	126	15	.361	.616	1384
Marcus Semien	107	24	.332	.526	969
Ketel Marte	120	6	.355	.612	857
HOF Average	118	31	.374	.612	1312

In many respects, these numbers are more meaningful than WAR and that is why we include these tests. Altuve looks like a Hall of Famer here. The only category he comes up significantly short in is base running runs (RBaser). We as Astros fans know where that comes from. Altuve is usually good for a base running gaffe every other week. Those add up over the course of a career. If you gave him those runs back then it is quite possible that both his offensive winning percentage and rOBA move even higher.

The reason why these numbers are compelling is the comparison between Altuve and his other contemporaries. Semien is just a cut below offensively. Now make no mistake, these numbers are in comparison to the league average overall. Most second basemen are a cut below that average, so Semien is a comparatively good offensive player. He’s just not Altuve. Marte looks a lot closer, but he also has not begun a decline phase yet.

This is where things get interesting for Altuve. With each passing season his overall career averages will drop. They could drop below the HOF average if he continues on for another three or four seasons. So, he will continue to add runs created, but he will also drop in the other areas. There is always a downside to continuing your playing career past your prime.

Fielding Statistics

	Rfield	FG	DWAR	TZ/UZR/OOA
Jose Altuve	-113	-1.8	-5.8	-39
Marcus Semien	56	4,4	14.2	43
Ketel Marte	22	1.5	5.7	11
HOF Average	36	10.1	11.1	60

Legacies are a complicated thing. When Altuve is voted into the Hall of Fame, he will be the worst defensive second baseman in the Hall of Fame. He will surpass Craig Biggio for that “honor.” That means he will be very similar historically to Derek Jeter. Both were gifted offensive players. Both were high octane postseason performers. Both will go down as the worst defender at their position in the Hall of Fame.

Looking at fielding is difficult when comparing old players with new players. Total zone and Ultimate Zone Runs really aren’t a thing anymore. Fangraphs has shifted to outs above average and fielding run value. The concept of the last column is still the same. The runs represent what they have done at second base alone. Fangraphs considers Altuve to be merely below average. It’s not historically awful, but we have to remember that most Hall of Famers are better than average defenders at their position at the very least.

Semien fits in defensively, so as we can see, different tests will tell us different things. We are looking for a preponderance of the evidence. Most voters would consider offensive contributions to be more valuable than defensive contributions, so everything is not created equal. At any rate, we should take a look at how each player has fared in the MVP voting and subsequent BWAR rankings.

MVP Test

	MVP	BWAR	Difference
Jose Altuve	27	15	12
Marcus Semien	15	23	-8
Ketel Marte	11	8	3
HOF Average	20	27	-7

Last time, we looked at why we are using this test. Essentially we want to compare how the voters perceived the player at the time versus what they actually produced. Given Altuve’s defensive struggles, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the voters overvalued him. He also has the 2017 MVP award and BWAR agreed he was the most valuable player in the league that season.

If you can imagine a checklist then this sort of test would appear on the list. Was the player ever the best player in the league? Were they the best at their position? Checking no is not meant to disqualify a player, but the more often you can check yes the better it ends up looking for him. Altuve checks both of those boxes even if he had only two such seasons where he was among the best ten players in the league in terms of value.

Semien has been underappreciated because most of his value comes from the glove. He has also been more inconsistent offensively which plays into this particular test. He has either been very good or very ordinary over the course of his careers. When he marries very good offense with very good defense he ends up finishing high in the BWAR rankings. When he isn’t then he doesn’t.

The Playoff Test

	PA	SLASH	HR	Runs	RBI	SB
Jose Altuve	492	.270/.335/.507	28	90	57	9
Marcus Semien	122	.270/.336/.423	4	19	14	0
Ketel Marte	96	.344/.385/.589	3	10	13	3
HOF Average	114	.286/.351/.423	2	13	11	4

Playoff performance is a function of opportunity. There really is only one player in baseball history with a similar resume as Altuve. Derek Jeter ranks first in almost every category other than home runs. Altuve is second all-time in runs scored and second in home runs. He is also second in plate appearances. Do we give him extra credit for that? I suppose one could, but that means you take credit away from other players that didn’t get the same opportunity.

For instance, you could easily claim that Marte is a superior postseason player. He has a higher average, higher OBP, and higher slugging percentage. Obviously, he doesn’t have nearly the opportunities. With opportunities come moments like the walk off home run in the 2019 ALCS. It comes with two rings. These are things that are hard to put into numbers or to quantify. It applies the fame element of the Hall of Fame.

The problem comes when you compare an Altuve with an earlier player. Current MLB has four layers of playoffs. The earlier Hall of Famers had one. That’s not an apples to apples comparison. One could take just World Series numbers, but that would ignore some of Altuve’s biggest moments. There really is no satisfying way of doing it, but we include the test because it is unsatisfying to ignore it completely.

The Braves defense returned to being a strength of the team in 2026. And for the second straight year, Mauricio Dubon and Matt Olson won Gold Gloves as big reasons for the rebound. Both players played pivotal roles in the Braves defense supporting the pitching staff, with Dubon filling in all over the place while Olson ensured he was reliable as possible to get outs at first. Both players are among the best defenders in their respective roles over the past decade in all of baseball, so seeing them receive just recognition once again is awesome.

Braves News

Isaiah Drake raked over the weekend in the Arizona Fall League.

Spencer Strider’s season being cut short due to injury has resulted in an uncertain future for the Braves right-hander.

MLB News

Four Japanese players entered the posting system to come to MLB baseball. MLB teams can start to negotiate with the players on Monday.

Teams must decide on Qualifying offers by 4 PM Central today.

Meet the Mets

Jerry Koosman, the greatest left-handed pitcher in Mets history and the man who clinched the first World Series in team history, has died at 83.

Steve and Alex Cohen released a statement regarding Koosman’s passing on behalf of the entire Mets organization.

It is not an exaggeration to a single degree that without Jerry Koosman, there are no 1969 Mets and no World Series ring.

For the first time since Juan Lagares in 2014, the Mets have a Gold Glove winner and his name is Nolan McLean.

Free agency is real and strong and happening soon, so it’s only natural to start making Mets projections.

Around the National League East

Acquired in a trade that only resulted in a single game of production for both sides of the deal, the Nationals expect a lot more production and appearances from Connolly Early in 2027.

The last sustained baseball stoppage eventually resulted in the creation of the Washington Nationals, so let’s hope that doesn’t happen again for at least two reasons.

For the Braves, Mauricio Dubon and Matt Olson won Gold Gloves at utility and first base, respectively.

Around Major League Baseball

Always at peak performance in terms of capturing their audience, MLB announced the winners of the 2026 Gold Glove Awards at 8:30 on a Sunday night on ESPN.

There are two ways that free agency can go before the lockout begins on December 1: an insane 2021-style fire sale or an alarmingly glacial slog to the deadline.

A quartet of players from the KBO and NPB were officially posted by their teams.

For as bad as some people think the Mets’ front office hirings and goings-on are dire, at least they aren’t the Astros.

Wandy Peralta opted into his 2027 option with the San Diego Padres, earning himself $4.45M for next season.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Steve Sypa reviewed the brief and uneventful time of Dylan Ross on the 2026 Mets roster.

This Date in Mets History

On this date 50 years ago, Randy Jones barely edged out Jerry Koosman for the National League Cy Young Award.

Dodgers executive vice president and chief operating officer Bob Wolfe will retire at the end of 2026, the club announced on Friday. He will shift into an advisory role.

Wolfe has been with the Dodgers since Guggenheim Partners took over ownership of the team in 2012, and headed the club’s day-to-day business operations for the last 14-plus seasons.

The longtime executive has worked with current Dodgers president and CEO Stan Kasten at multiple stops, beginning with the Atlanta Braves in 1980, plus the Atlanta Hawks and Washington Nationals before coming with Kasten to Los Angeles. Wolfe worked with Kasten for the first 12 of the Braves’ first 12 of 14 division titles in a row and for the last 14 Dodgers postseason berths.

“Having worked 47 years in team sports, I’ve been more entertained than anyone deserves,” Wolfe said in a statement. “It’s been a privilege to ride the coattails of so many on- and off-the-field Hall of Famers, will-be Hall of Famers and should-be Hall of Famers. With Stan always providing the vision, I’ve had the latitude to work closely with the talented individuals and departments that make these organizations grow and succeed.”

Links

Evan Drellich at The Athletic last week posted a thorough overview of the pending MLB work stoppage, a piece that’s chock full of details. He also offered this assessment among the many insights in the article:

But there’s another way to parse the situation. The owners might also view an offseason lockout — and maybe a relatively small number of missed games — as a low-risk opportunity to go for what they really want. If that doesn’t work, they move on, and try to leverage the fact they backed off a cap.

Hall of Fame baseball writer Ross Newhan, who among other stops wrote for the Los Angeles Times for 37 years, died last week at age 89. Bill Shaikin wrote a tribute to Newhan at the Times last Tuesday.

Perla Paredes at MLB.com checks in on how Royals prospects are faring in the Arizona Fall League.

OF Angeibel Gomez (Royals’ No. 2 prospect/MLB Pipeline’s No. 76 overall)
At just 17 years old, Gomez became the second-youngest player in AFL history, making his stateside debut on Oct. 4 after appearing in 47 Dominican Summer League games earlier this year.

The outfielder, who signed with Kansas City for $2.9 million in January, has impressed against older competition. Through nine games, Gomez is slashing .333/.421/.485 with a .906 OPS, three doubles and one triple. His 70-grade speed has also been on display on the basepaths with four stolen bases. 

Jaylon Thompson looks at how top pick Zion Rose has fared in Arizona.

“The last four months have been a whirlwind, for real,” Rose said. “Just starting off with the draft, that was a blessing in itself. I was just kind of caught off-guard, not by where I went, but you know, by the social media and all that.

“In my head, I knew I could go up there (being a top-10 selection). So I’m super grateful the Royals chose me.”

Mike Gillespie at Royals Keep considers what the Royals should do with Nick Loftin.

Loftin, however, helped ease some of the pain of losing Garcia for half the season. He made the best of his first extended opportunity to play regularly, parlaying the chance into a serviceable 118-game, 426-plate-appearance .240/.322/.388 line with career highs in doubles (27), home runs (8), RBI (45), and fWAR (1.3); he also posted a 98 wRC+, .710 OPS, and 100 OPS+.

And he blossomed defensively as a hot corner replacement for Garcia. Loftin’s 6 OAA and 5 DRP tied Boston’s Caleb Durbin and Minnesota’s Brooks Lee for the American League lead in both categories; he also had 6 DRS and, with Durbin and Brooks, is in the running for the AL’s third base Gold Glove to be awarded Nov. 1.  

Kevin O’Brien at Royals Keep looks at the roster moves the Royals need to make.

Japanese pitcher Kaima Taira will be posted for MLB teams.

Pitcher Hiromi Itoh is also posted.

Korean third baseman Si-Hwan Roh will also be posted for teams.

The Rays exercise the $20 million option on pitcher Drew Rasmussen.

Why this Brewers bullpen was one for the ages.

Dayn Perry at CBS Sports looks at the top trade candidates this offseason.

What to know about a potential MLB lockout.

How did last year’s free agent class fare this year?

The Yankees part ways with Omar Minaya and Brian Sabean.

Former Mets pitcher Jerry Koosman dies at age 83.

Manager Pat Murphy and some Milwaukee Brewers make a cameo on Saturday Night Live.

The Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks won their second-consecutive Japanese Series title.

The Golden State Valkyries win a WNBA title in just their second season.

The Big 12 admits a replay review error in the BYU/Arizona State game.

Why did EA shut down production of BioWare?

Binance resumes withdrawals after a temporary freeze following a $6.3 billion hack.

What are the best gory horror movies?

Your song of the day is Bikini Kill with Rebel Girl.

Good morning, Purple Row!

Here’s what’s going on with the Colorado Rockies and the rest of Major League Baseball.

Rockies News & Links

Here are 2026’s Minor League Gold Glove winners | MLB.com

While TJ Rumfield did not end up winning the MLB Gold Glove at first base (that honor went to Matt Olson), third base prospect Ethan Hedges (HM PuRP) won a minor league Gold Glove for his work with the High-A Spokane Indians.

Arizona Fall League Week 4 top performers | MLB.com

Jared Thomas continues to perform well in his second AFL stint. He went 9-for-18 with 7 runs scored, a double, three triples, four RBI, four walks, six strikeouts and two stolen bases. Fall Star Game rosters will be announced tomorrow — Jack O’Dowd is reportedly participating in the Home Run Derby on Saturday, will Thomas join him?

Around MLB

MLB’s New Outfield Positioning Rules Are Producing Dramatic Results In The AFL | Baseball America ($)

MLB is continuing its tradition of experimentation in the Arizona Fall League. This year, they are experimenting with defensive positioning of both the infielders (with nobody on base) and outfielders. The outfield positioning rules are creating dramatic results. Ian Cundall writes that through October 26 at Salt River Fields — the only park where the positioning rules are being used due to technology infrastructure — runs per game are up 34%, hits per game are up 32%, doubles per game are up 81% and triples per game are up 236%.

A lot of that is due to the corner outfielders in particular playing both shallower and closer to the line, which means they have to cover a lot more ground and makes for more balls in the gap. This also means teams might not be able to hide defensive liabilites in the corners anymore.

As Jared Thomas said, “Everybody in center, right, left… they’re all going to be center fielders at the end of the day. You’re going to have to have some speed and have good reads on the ball.”

Sunday Notes: Matthew Wood Caught Jacob Misiorowski in the Minors | FanGraphs

David Laurilla provides his notes column from the Arizona Fall League this week. While the main focus is on Wood the Misiorowski, he also asks Rafters pitching coach Jerry Sullivan about Sean Sullivan (No. 21 PuRP) and his own AFL plan.

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