Category: Baseball

This time one year ago, the notion that three of the National League’s playoffs teams would have come from the Central was farfetched, and yet, by the time the post-season began, the division champion Milwaukee Brewers were joined by the Wild Card entrants Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds.

The NL Central featured several 2025 award winners including Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates (Cy Young) and the Milwaukee Brewers duo of Pat Murphy (Manager of the Year) and Matt Arnold (Executive of the Year). In addition, the Chicago Cubs won the team Gold Glove Award.

Coming into the 2026 season, the Central looks be just as competitive as it was in 2025, and although the Cardinals finally embraced a re-build, the Pirates actually spent money on free agents. Here’s a preview of the division.

Milwaukee Brewers
2025 record: 97-65, 1st (Division Champs)

It was a third consecutive NL Central title for the Brewers in 2025, winning 97 games along the way. The team’s high impact position players return in 2026, led by catcher William Contreras, outfielder Jackson Chourio, infielder Brice Turang and designated hitter Christian Yelich. They also have one of the top prospects in the game, Jesus Made, who will turn 19 in May and could force his way to Milwaukee before the year ends. Jett Williams, the top infield prospect picked up from the New York Mets in an off-season trade, may also impact the big league team this season.

The starting rotation lost Freddy Peralta, who the team dealt to the Mets for Williams and pitcher Brandon Sproat, which will impact the rotation but jettisoning a pitcher who is headed for free agency is a common strategy used by the team’s front office, and thus one they were prepared to accommodate.

Starter Brandon Woodruff signed his qualifying offer, somewhat surprisingly, but his return gives the team’s rotation a veteran presence that also includes Chad Patrick, Jacob Misiorowski, Kyle Harrison and Aaron Ashby – at least to start the season. Quinn Priester will begin the season on the IL and prospects Sproat, Logan Henderson and Robert Gasser could all factor into the rotation sooner than later.

The bullpen’s top arms, Trevor Megill – who saved 30 games for the team last season – and Abner Uribe, who may take over as the team’s primary closer, are supplemented by returning relievers DL Hall, Rob Zastryzny and Grant Anderson.

Questions in their rotation notwithstanding – and the loss of Peralta is no small one – the Brewers are still the team to beat in the Central, with Pat Murphy’s squad of position players all under 30 (outside of Yelich) and prospects knocking on the door. Andrew Vaughn, who had a career renaissance after joining the team mid-season, has to prove his 64 outstanding games as a Brewer wasn’t a fluke.

The Brewers have been one of the best-run small market clubs for the last decade. They’ve finished worst than 2nd in their division only once (4th in 2020, but still made the playoffs) and only twice missed playing in the postseason during this run.

Can the Brew Crew make it four-in-a-row in 2026 with another division crown? It’s tough to bet against them.

Chicago Cubs
2025 record: 92-70, 2nd (Wild Card)

The Cubs enjoyed a 90+ win season in 2025 – manager Craig Counsell’s second season at the helm. Winners of the team Gold Glove, the team’s core position players return – minus the departed free agent Kyle Tucker – and with the addition of Alex Bregman to play third base. First baseman Micheal Busch paced the team with 34 home runs while infielders Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson provided excellent defense with above average offense while both also stealing 20-or-more bases. Carson Kelly had a career-best season behind the plate with the Cubs in his 10th big league season.

Outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong had a 30/30 season and was electric in the first-half of the season, his second full-time year in the big leagues. Seiya Suzuki posted another above-average season with an MLB-career best 32 home runs. Ian Happ rounds out the outfield with another 20+ home run bat.

The team’s starting rotation will be without Justin Steele for most of the first half of the season, but 2025 All-Star Matthew Boyd and 2024 All-Star Shota Imanaga will be joined by new addition Edward Cabrera and veteran Jameson Taillon in a rotation that includes 2025 National League Rookie of the Year runner-up Cade Horton. Collin Rea, who made 27 starts for the Cubs last season, may find himself in the bullpen.

Closer Daniel Palencia is coming off of a dominate showing in the World Baseball Classic where he picked up the save in Venezuela’s championship winning game against the United States. Behind him will be some new names after the team lost Drew Pomeranz and Brad Keller to free agency and Ryan Pressly to retirement. Caleb Thielbar does return and will be joined by newcomers Hoby Milner, Hunter Harvey, Phil Maton and Jacob Webb.

The Cubs should compete for a Wild Card while battling the Brewers for the top spot in the division.

Cincinnati Reds
2025 record: 83-79, 3rd (Wild Card)

When the New York Mets collapsed down the stretch in 2025, the Reds were able to claim a Wild Card birth. The Reds may be hard-pressed to repeat last season’s winning season with staff anchor Hunter Greene out until July after having chips removed from his elbow.

The team’s starting rotation does return the excellent Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo, but after Nick Martinez left during free agency, the team will look to fill out their rotation with a handful of pitchers – including one of their top prospects, Rhett Lowder

Emilio Pagan returns as closer with top set-up man Tony Santillan. New addition Pierce Johnson should help fortify their depth along with Graham Ashcroft, but the back-end of their bullpen has more questions than answers heading into the season.

Eugenio Suárez returns to the team he spent seven seasons with earlier in his career as the team’s designated hitter. He also add a veteran leader and power bat to a position player group under-performed in 2025. Shortstop Elly De La Cruz played in all 162 games, but struggled in the season’s second half. The team will be counting on top prospect Sal Stewart after a strong September showing as the team’s first baseman. After missing the 2024 season, Matt McClain struggled last year, and his ability to return to the offensive output similar to what he produced during his rookie campaign in 2023 would be a boon to the team’s lineup.

The team return their veteran catchers while their outfield will include Noelvi Marté Spencer Steer, who both spent much of last season on the infield.

If everything goes right for the Reds, the could stay in the Wild Card race into September, but they aren’t a sure thing to repeat their winning record from 2025.

St. Louis Cardinals
2025 record: 78-84, 4th

Finally, the Cardinals have embraced the rebuild. Gone are starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Miles Mikolas as well as first baseman Willson Contreras, second baseman Brandon Donovan and third baseman Nolan Arenado.

The team will start the season without outfielder Lars Nootbaar who is recovering from heel surgery. The team will need former top outfield prospect Jordan Walker to rebound from a disappointing 2025 and the infield will need to see Masyn Winn take a step forward offensively and hope his new double-play partner, top prospect JJ Wetherholt, can contend for NL Rookie of the Year. Nolan Gorman will get a chance to stick at third base while Alec Burleson – who posted the best offensive numbers of any returning player – can build on a strong 2025.

The team’s starting rotation will be led by Matthew Liberatore but the Cardinals rotation depth will be banking on a the buy-low Dustin May and Kyle Leahy, who will work out of the rotation after making 61 relief appearances last year. The bullpen returns presumptive closer JoJo Romero but has more questions that the rotation.

St. Louis will be in for a rough 2026 season and could threaten to fall below the 71-win mark the team posted in 2023 – the lowest win total in a 162-game season since 1990.

Pittsburgh Pirates
2025 record: 71-91, 5th

Could this be the year the Pirates finally return to the post-season?

After years of ownership failing invest in the major league team via free agency, Pittsburgh added outfielder Ryan O’Hearn on what is the largest position-player free agent contract in the organization’s history. They also added designated hitter Marcell Ozuna late in the off-season and hope he can provide a higher ceiling offensively that the departed franchise icon Andrew McCutchen. The team also swung a trade for veteran infielder Brandon Lowe, who will likley slot into second base, but has the positional versatility to move around the diamond, if needed.

The Pirates also have to top prospect in baseball in shortstop Konnor Griffin who is fighting for a spot on the big league roster despite only playing 21 games at Double-A last season. The outfield returns Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz, both of whom had disappointing 2025 seasons, as well a first baseman Spencer Horwitz. The team’s catching duo of Joey Bart and Henry Davis are both still searching for a break-out season to match their once top-prospect billings.

The team added Gregory Soto to the team’s bullpen behind Dennis Santana but the rest of the team’s relievers are nondescript.

The starting rotation is where the Pirates shine with reigning Cy Young winner Paul Skenes as the team’s ace. Mitch Keller, Bubba Chandler and Braxton Ashcroft solidify the top four spots in the rotation with Jose Urquidy – who has pitched in only two big league games since 2023 – a possibility for the fifth starter’s spot.

The Pirates raised their floor offensively for 2026 and while it likely wasn’t enough to put them in position to challenge for the division title, barring injury, the team should be in the hunt for a Wild Card spot deep into September.

2026 NL Central Division Prediction

Milwaukee Brewers (Division Champions)
Chicago Cubs (Wild Card)
Pittsburgh Pirates (Wild Card)
Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals

The Good Phight will be previewing the 2026 season by going over each position on the field. We’ll talk about the players that will occupy them, the played behind them, their strengths and weaknesses and give a few takes about how we think the season will shake out.

The Phillies began 2025 betting on Jordan Romano to have a bounce-back season, for José Ruiz to look like a solid middle-inning reliever, José Alvarado to look like a high leverage reliever, and for Orion Kerkering to ascend into an upper tier right handed reliever.

None of that happened. Luckily, they were able to sign David Robertson and make a massive trade for Jhoan Duran but the bullpen still cost them in each of their losses against the Dodgers in the NLDS. The Phillies were never able to overcome an offseason plan going horribly wrong.

The Leverage/Middle Relief Arms:Jhoan Duran, Brad Keller, José Alvarado, Jonathan Bowlan, Orion Kerkering, and Tanner Banks

Jhoan Duran will pitch his first full season as a Philadelphia Phillie after being acquired at the trade deadline last year. That means a full season of a set ninth inning and the Durantula throwing a ridiculous splinker while his intro music is still ringing in the heads of a sold-out crowd.

Even though Duran throws a 100+ mph fastball, a 98 mph splitter that induces a lot of weak contact, a nasty curveball, and hard sweeper, he doesn’t feel like there is enough of a mix for one inning. He started throwing a more traditional split-change in spring training.

Personal opinion: it should be illegal for a closer to throw more than 3 pitches.

That’s not all to the bullpen in 2026. Brad Keller signed a two-year deal after a career-altering season with the Chicago Cubs. Keller pitched to a 2.07 ERA in 69.2 innings last season with a five-pitch arsenal. Given his .569 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters last season, Keller slots in as the primary setup option.

José Alvarado returns after his 2025 was defined by an 80-game suspension. The sinker and cutter have looked sharp in camp and there isn’t much left-handed relief depth behind him. He is the primary left handed option for Rob Thomson’s bullpen.

Jonathan Bowlan was acquired from the Royals in exchange for Matt Strahm. Bowlan finally got extended major league action as a reliever last season and showed some promising traits. His four-seam fastball generated a 43.5% whiff rate while his slider was at 40.2%. He also throws a sinker, curveball, and changeup to mix up the arsenal.

While it hasn’t been the best camp for Bowlan, there are still plenty of reasons to believe this was a very good trade for the Phillies given his upside and team control moving forward.

Orion Kerkering has a lot to prove in 2026. Beyond what happened in the NLDS, Kerkering took a step back in the 2025 regular season with a spike in walk rate and some bad tweaks with his sweeper. The pitch that got him to the major leagues did not have the same horizontal break and drop it had before and hitters looked a lot more comfortable against it. His whiff rate on the pitch declined by 7.5% and opponents hit it for more damage.

There is a world where Kerkering ends up as the second or third-best arm in the bullpen. He is working on a splitter, which could help him against left-handed hitters. It will still come down to how his sweeper performs in 2026 for him to reach his full potential.

No, Kerkering should not throw more fastballs.

Tanner Banks is comfortably the sixth guy in Thomson’s bullpen as a middle-relief/matchup arm against left-handed hitters. Banks limited lefties to a .456 OPS last season but struggled against righties. The Phillies are banking on him doing the exact same thing again.

This is the strongest the bullpen has looked since the end of the 2024 season. It will look more conventional than any bullpen in the Rob Thomson era. There is a set closer, there are set 7th and 8th inning arms, and there are set middle relievers.

The churn: Kyle Backhus, Zach Pop, Seth Johnson, Chase Shugart, Max Lazar, Nolan Hoffman, and Zach McCambley (for now)

The Phillies completely revamped the back of their 40-man roster with plenty of new relief options for depth. They traded for Kyle Backhus to bolster their left-handed reliever depth, bought some Pop, and claimed Shu(gart).

There are a lot more options for roster churn as the season goes on. Backhus, Zach Pop, and Seth Johnson stood out in camp. Shugart and Lazar look like options that can pitch more than an inning.

There are even some nice non-roster invite pickups here. Trevor Richards still throws a sick changeup, Jonathan Hernández has shown some stuff, and Daniel Robert throws a good sweeper.

Strengths: High end stuff and mix

The Phillies’ bullpen lacked swing-and-miss stuff, which is a necessity for high-leverage situations. Adding Duran for a full season, signing Keller, getting a full year out of Alvarado, and even trading for someone like Bowlan will go a long way in giving Thomson more high-end swing-and-miss stuff.

The Phillies also clearly prioritized pitchers, especially right-handed pitchers with deeper arsenals. Trading for Duran began the trend but Keller and Bowlan also have five-pitch arsenals and two different fastballs to help mitigate platoon advantages.

On paper, this is the kind of bullpen to feel good about taking to October.

Weaknesses: Left Handed Depth

The 40-man roster only carries three left-handed relievers in Alvarado, Banks, and Backhus. They added Tim Mayza and Génesis Cabrera to minor league stills but it’s still easy to see the group as a little thin.

Some of their right-handed relievers will mitigate some of this. Duran and Keller were very good at getting both righties and lefties out last season but it’s still easy to see why you could want a little more.

If Alvarado misses some time, you will need right-handed pitchers to make up for it in leverage spots. Banks and Backhus are very good at getting lefties out but do not profile well against righties.

Hottest take: Jonathan Bowlan is the 3rd best reliever in the bullpen

The four-seam fastball and slider combination will make for a big strikeout rate and his command is solid for a reliever. There could be some home-run issues here but he feels like the best guy outside of their top two arms to break through as a true leverage piece.

Realistic take: Duran earns a career high in saves

From 2023-2025, Duran recorded 82 saves with a career high of 32 last season. Those Minnesota Twins teams never won more than 87 games while he was there and the closer role is less valuable when the team doesn’t have as many ninth inning leads.

The Phillies won 95 games in 2024 and 96 last season. The general expectation for this group is to once again win the division and win roughly 93+ games.

From a math standpoint, it’s hard to imagine Duran finishing with fewer than 33 saves next season.

With the 2025 Texas Rangers season having come to an end, we shall be, over the course of the offseason, taking a look at every player who appeared in a major league game for the Texas Rangers in 2025.

Today we are looking at pitcher Kumar Rocker.

There were a number of individual disappointing seasons for the Texas Rangers in 2025. I’m not sure any of them, however, were as disappointing as Kumar Rocker’s 2025 campaign.

Remember how hyped we were about Rocker at the end of 2024? Returning from Tommy John surgery and destroying AA and AAA batters — 3 runs allowed in 29.2 IP, 47 of 106 batters fanned, just four walks. Making his major league debut in Seattle and getting 17 swinging strikes on 74 pitches while striking out seven and allowing one run in four innings, followed by a couple of decent, if not as dominant, outings to finish the season.

Rocker entered 2025 as a consensus top 50 prospect, with Baseball America having him at #20 overall, and injury concerns being the main reason he wasn’t a consensus top 20-25 prospect. It seemed like he was ready to step into a major league rotation and immediately contribute, while offering the ceiling of a legitimate top of the rotation starter. Rocker seemed especially impressive in contrast to fellow Vandy Boy Jack Leiter, who seemed completely overmatched in the majors in 2024.

Rocker was not, as it turned out, ready to step into a major league rotation and immediately contribute in 2025.

Rocker did start the season in the rotation, out of necessity as much as anything else after a rough spring. His first start of the year was in Cincinnati. Four batters into the bottom of the first he was down 3-0 after a single-homer-single-stolen base-double sequence. He bounced back to get the next three batters, and could have gotten out of the second without allowing a run if he could have retired Matt McLain, who had hit the homer off of him in the first. McLain drew a seven pitch walk, however, and then Elly De La Cruz took Rocker’s next pitch deep for the momentum-shifting two out, three run homer. Rocker allowed a single and a walk after that, then retired the final four batters he faced, two on strikes.

It was a microcosm of what we would see from Rocker in 2025 — inefficiency, an inability to control the opponent’s running game, some ugly results, and some instances where he looked great, where you are left wondering why he isn’t performing at that high level more often.

Rocker made five starts with the Rangers before landing on the injured list with a shoulder impingement after a 1.2 inning, five run outing in Oakland. After a two game rehab assignment — one for Frisco, one for Round Rock — that saw Rocker again dominate minor leaguers, allowing 2 hits and 1 walk in seven shutout innings while striking out eight, the Rangers activated him and returned him to the rotation.

That return lasted just one start. You probably remember it — it was the game where Rocker got Jake Mangrum to hit what should have been an inning-ending ground out to first base, but Rocker didn’t cover first base, resulting in a pair of runs scoring to turn what was a 3-0 Rays lead into a 5-0 Rays lead in a game the Rangers ultimately lost 5-4.

Rocker was optioned the next day, with the plan for him to get innings for a while in Round Rock. He only made one start for the Express, though, before Tyler Mahle went to the i.l. with a rotator cuff strain, creating a hole that Rocker was brought back up to fill.

Rocker made eight more starts upon his return, and was better, superficially at least — he had a 3.95 ERA and 4.96 FIP in 41 innings, compared to an 8.87 ERA and 4.72 FIP in his first six starts of the year. His first start back saw him throw five shutout innings against the ChiSox, with six Ks against just one walk. He also had a start in July where he allowed one hit in 6.1 shutout innings against Detroit.

He continued to struggle to work deep into games, however, as he struggled to put away batters and keep his pitch counts down. And basestealers continued to be an issue for him — he allowed 11 stolen bases in 11 attempts in 2025.

Rocker’s last game in the bigs in 2025 was on July 31 — the addition of Merrill Kelly allowed the Rangers to return Rocker to AAA. He made one start for Round Rock after being sent down, then didn’t pitch again until mid-September, with the team having him work on things on the side while also seeking to limit his innings.

Kumar Rocker is really a mystery at this point, with moments where he appears elite and moments where he looks like he isn’t a major leaguer. Part of the overall inconsistency can probably be chalked up to his overall lack of innings — from his freshman season at Vanderbilt in 2019 through the end of the 2025 season Rocker has accumulated just 430.1 innings, due to a combination of the pandemic, not signing with the Mets after they drafted him in 2021, and Tommy John surgery. One of the things Bruce Bochy talked about last year, in the context of controlling the running game and the mental error on not covering first, is that Rocker is much more inexperienced from an in-game action standpoint that most pitchers of his age and ability.

Rocker’s slider is an out pitch, a legitimate weapon, and his cutter and curveball can be quality pitches as well, though his command of his curveball is too erratic for it to be something he can rely upon. However, his fastball and sinker, despite averaging in the 95-96 mph range, were pounded in 2025. His fastball is unusual, in that it lacks vertical movement but has a lot of horizontal movement — from a movement standpoint, his sinker is the more effective pitch.

The result is that Rocker isn’t generating many swings and misses with his fastball or his sinker. That’s less of an issue with the sinker, which isn’t generally a swing-and-miss pitch, than the fastball, and it may be that Rocker would be better off using his sinker as his primary fastball while using the fastball as an occasional show-me pitch. That said, he will have to command his sinker better to have success that way.

Rocker finished the 2025 season with a 5.74 ERA, a 5.74 xERA (convenient!), and a 4.88 FIP. He’s a ground ball pitcher — he was in the 80th percentile in 2025 in ground ball rate, and his ground ball rates in the minors were even higher — so should benefit from what we expect will be a good Rangers’ infield defense in 2026, though one could say the same about 2025, when the Rangers had one of the best infield defenses in the league.

Rocker appears to have a good chance of opening the 2026 season in the rotation once again, with manager Skip Schumaker calling his most recent outing “electric” (shades of Jamey Wright, I know). Jack Leiter took a step forward in 2025, after getting knocked around in 2024. Fingers crossed that his Vanderbilt teammate can do the same this year.

Previously:

Gerson Garabito

Tyler Mahle

Kyle Higashioka

Adolis Garcia

Luis Curvelo

Alejandro Osuna

Blaine Crim

Jake Burger

Jacob Webb

Nick Ahmed

Jon Gray

Carl Edwards Jr.

Josh Jung

Leody Taveras

Dustin Harris

Marc Church

Luke Jackson

Danny Coulombe

Wyatt Langford

Dylan Moore

Michael Helman

Evan Carter

Cole Winn

Rowdy Tellez

Dane Dunning

Marcus Semien

Billy McKinney

Jose Corniell

Jonah Heim

Cody Freeman

Sam Haggerty

Jacob deGrom

Merrill Kelly

Caleb Boushley

Justin Foscue

Nathan Eovaldi

Chris Martin

Patrick Corbin

Joc Pederson

Phil Maton

Corey Seager

Tucker Barnhart

Jack Leiter

Ezequiel Duran

Robert Garcia

The annual Spring Breakout game has arrived! A relatively new feature to the MLB spring training schedule, the spring breakout is a prospect-only bout pitting one organization’s best against another, providing fans an easy way to get familiarized with the team’s top farmhands. The Mariners have one of the more potent rosters in the league but will be facing a talented Brewers team littered with elite talent, setting up what should be one of the more exciting matchups this event has to offer. If you’re at all interested in what the (not so distant) future of the Mariners could look like, I can’t recommend this game enough.

When: Today, March 20th, at 2:10 PT

Where to watch: MLB.tv, MLB.com, or the MLB app

Pitchers

Kade Anderson, Charlie Beilenson, Tyler Cleveland, Casey Hintz, Lucas Kelly, Po-Chun Lin, Brock Moore, Robinson Ortiz, Mason Peters, Ryan Sloan

Anderson and Sloan, the team’s top two pitching prospects, will deservedly catch most of the headlines for this pitching staff. Both feature premiere pedigree and are top ten minor league pitchers in baseball, though Sloan’s immense frame and bullying arsenal provide an interesting contrast to Anderson’s deception and pitchability. Regardless of their differences on the mound, they are both immensely talented players and are sure to get into game action this afternoon.

Though not nearly as elite as Anderson or Sloan, both Lucas Kelly and Mason Peters deserve to be highlighted ahead of tonight’s game. Members of last year’s draft class, Peters (4th round) and Kelly (6th round) were both relievers in college and feature big time stuff that gives them a great shot to move quickly. Peters, who should be a starter this season, is a low launch lefty with a fastball that plays well at the top of the zone and a devastating array of breaking balls he can spin with the best of them. He’s got a slight frame, but the arsenal should be fine as a starter if the body can hold up. Kelly, who’s a pure relief prospect, is a high octane side-armer that’s touched triple digits with his heater and gets big extension down the mound from his 6’4 frame. It’s primarily a fastball-slider profile that could move through the minors as fast as just about anybody in this system.

Po-Chun Lin is a fun inclusion to this roster. We’re yet to see his debut, but he’s gotten good reviews from scouts who have seen him. A stout lefty from Taiwan, Lin has found success in international play and is a name to monitor for the real prospect sickos.

Catchers

Josh Caron

Luke Stevenson

Caron is looking to bounce back after a disappointing first season in the pro ranks, but Stevenson, who was last year’s Comp A selection, looked superb at the plate last summer and should be one of the more exciting prospects to follow this season. His blend of defense, power, and leadership is enviable for such a young player, and he looked to be finding his hit tool with regularity in his debut with Modesto.

Infielders

Michael Arroyo, Nick Becker, Felnin Celesten, Colt Emerson, Charlie Pagliarini, Brock Rodden, Austin St. Laurent, Luis Suisbel

This group is headlined by Colt Emerson and Michael Arroyo, two players who got a healthy amount of run with the big league squad this spring and more than held their own. They’re both likely to debut in the majors this year and figure to be key factors for this organization moving forward. Rodden, another guy who’s had a really nice spring in his own right, is finally back healthy and raking, a fantastic sign for a guy who could easily fill in as a utility guy at some point in the near future. He’s something of a Leo Rivas/Dylan Moore hybrid, though he might end up having a better offensive game than both of them.

Nick Becker and Felnin Celesten are the names that are most probable to make major moves on ranking boards this season, though which direction is yet to be seen. Celesten is entering a “prove it” type of year after last season’s let down, but he’s shown he can be an elite performer when healthy and remains just 20 years old. Becker, who briefly debuted last summer after signing as the team’s second rounder, has a bundle of tools that gives him immense ceiling, but he’ll have to get everything dialed in if he wants to ascend up the rankings like many think he can.

Outfielders

Yorger Bautista, Korbyn Dickerson, Jonny Farmelo, Carlos Jimenez, Lazaro Montes, Jared Sundstrom, Aiden Taurek

Both Montes and Farmelo have been atop prospect lists for several years now and feature immense potential, though neither seems all that likely to debut in the big leagues this year due to a variety of reasons. Farmelo has missed over a year and a half of his professional career due to injury and desperately needs reps to prove what he can do, and Montes, who’s performed well throughout his professional career, started to get exposed a bit in Double-A after a torrid start to his promotion. They both remain immense pieces to the future of this organization and will have every opportunity to keep their place near the top of our rankings.

A sleeper name to know, Aiden Taurek could not stop hitting last summer in Modesto and looks like a tough AB on pitchers. He’s an OBP first bat that could be an interesting name to follow in the AquaSox lineup.

We are 27 games into spring training, and the Dodgers have only two more days in Arizona before returning home to Southern California to finish off the exhibition slate against the Angels.

After witnessing — either from afar on television/radio, or in person — Dodgers-related things for the last five weeks, let’s look back on Cactus League play.

Today’s question is what was your favorite moment from 2026 spring training?

If you have been concerned that there are not enough ways in 2026 to gamble on Major League Baseball, then I have good news for you. MLB entered into a partnership with prediction market Polymarket, first reported by Ben Horney of Front Office Sports and then later announced by both organizations. Polymarket gains the right to use official logos and marks, while MLB is reported to receive somewhere between $150 million and $300 million a year from the prediction markets.

Prediction markets, which are a relatively new product but rapidly increasing in popularity and visibility, allow users to bet on a whole host of things, from who will win the Kansas City Royals home opener to whether Jesus Christ return before 2027? These bets happen against other users through the buying and selling of contracts, similar to how a stock exchange works, instead of betting against the house as you do in a casino. This difference currently allows the markets to be regulated at the federal level by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission instead of at the state level, where traditional gambling is regulated. Theoretically, this makes these markets legal nationwide, although that is currently being challenged in court.

Unsurprisingly, Evan Drellich of the Athletic wrote an excellent article about the partnership. His treatise included quotes from Ari Borod, Polymarket president of sports business, that I think are both very revealing and very frustrating to someone like me who is ready to go full Temperance Movement on legalized gambling.

Borod, as does MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred, frames this partnership as a way to protect the integrity of the game and help catch bad actors. Borod explained this to Drellich, stating:

“We will work collaboratively with MLB to identify what types of markets pose unreasonable integrity risks for the game of baseball, and try to get those out of the market, with the goal being, how do you protect customers?

The phrase that really stood out to me is unreasonable integrity risk. I think this begs the question, what is a “reasonable” integrity risk? Integrity in the game of baseball is a fundamentally necessary component, at least for me, to continue investing my time and money into the Royals and other MLB teams. I don’t want there to be “reasonable” integrity risks that are not just tolerated, but actively in partnership with the league. I want the leaders of the sport to guard the integrity of the game of baseball like you would guard a nuclear power plant. You don’t want even reasonable risks to be involved where nuclear fallout could be the result of said risks going awry. I want the most reasonable risks and seemingly tolerable to be taken seriously and accounted for when the results of failure could be as spectacular and long-lasting for MLB as Chernobyl was for Ukraine.

Last season, prop bets, which are bets on micro events instead of the game at large, were considered reasonable enough to be legal, even encouraged, by MLB teams and their gambling partners. Then word leaked that Cleveland Guardians relievers Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz were being investigated and then indicted for allegedly rigging pitchers for financial gain. Clase and Ortiz have both said they are not guilty. Prosecutors for the case allege that Clase began this practice back in 2023, but Clase was not placed under investigation until 2025.

After the indictment, MLB and its gambling partners announced a $200 cap on prop bets, as well as forbidding the prop bets from being included in parlays. Parlays, which are a series of bets made at once that bring increased payouts if successful but fail if just one part of the bet doesn’t hit, are critically important to sports gambling companies’ bottom line. I think these steps are just a partial step towards what we need to do as a society, but I’m sure many people find them reasonable.

On one hand, I understand why MLB is attempting to get ahead of this and try to curb what contracts are allowed to be purchased. Pablo Torre recently aired an episode of his podcast, Pablo Torre Finds Out, about prediction markets titled “The Prop-Betification of Everything,” where he and author James Surowiecki discuss why prediction markets are useful tools, but also discuss the danger of turning anything that generates sufficient interest into a prop bet. If this went completely unchecked, we likely would see more incidents like Clase and Ortiz.

On the other hand, what if the very existence and popularity of sports gambling and prediction markets in particular are unreasonable risks to the integrity of the game? A key component of the Guardians’ pitcher scandal was essentially insider trading. Insiders, the pitchers themselves, knew that the pitch being thrown was going to be a ball because it was in their control. This ability to self-deal, allegedly for years, was critical to this scheme being pulled off.

Polymarket doesn’t explicitly ban insider trading, but has a broad ban on fraudulent bets. Borod paid lip service to avoiding props that have already proven to be a risk for the league, telling Drellich:

“I can’t share different specifics on parameters, but what I can share is that props that are easily susceptible to manipulation, or that, again, raise unreasonable integrity concerns, we want to keep those out of the game as well,”

Clearly, the phrase of the day is unreasonable integrity, but it’s a concern this time instead of a risk. Insider trading seems like it raises an unreasonable integrity concern, yet Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan apparently has a different perspective, viewing insider trading as a feature and not a bug. Here’s a summary of his point of view from a Forbes article about the topic:

Coplan has publicly supported the idea of using insider information to trade in prediction markets, framing “insider trading” in these markets as a public good that would enable the masses to get access to accurate information more quickly.

Insider trading is a key component to making these prediction markets as accurate as possible, yet it is also the very thing that makes them so susceptible to people with knowledge not available to the public enriching themselves at the expense of other people. Someone else and their money is at the other end of those contracts, not a massive entity like FanDuel or DraftKings.

The very existence of a market that, at the very least, implicitly encourages insider trading being allowed to carry MLB related product seems like an unreasonable integrity risk to me, no matter how much you try to police the worst elements of it. This seems like it’s going to end up in a whack-a-mole situation; another scandal will pop up around one of the products being offered, then there will be some change meant to address that specific product, rinse and repeat. How long until this process starts to completely erode public trust and start to hurt the bottom line in MLB remains to be seen. I would bet, however, you can wager on the outcome.

Good morning and happy Friday, everyone!

The Mariners triumphed in yesterday’s spring training ballgame against the A’s by a 6-4 final.

We inch ever closer to Opening Day, with the Mariners kicking things off on Thursday against the Guardians. What are your plans for the opener? Will you be at the game, or will you be taking it in some other way?

In Mariners news…

• Speaking of Opening Day, the Mariners officially named Logan Gilbert their Opening Day starter for the second year in a row.
• Emerson Hancock’s scorching spring has been fueled by a fastball with more life to it and a brand new sweeper, writes Shannon Drayer.

Around the league…

• Blue Jays rookie starter Trey Yesavage will begin the season on the injured list with right shoulder impingement.
• Former Mariners utilityman Dylan Moore has opted out of his minor league deal with the Phillies. The organization now has 48 hours to add him to their big league roster or he will become a free agent.
• Angels right-hander Grayson Rodriguez is likely to open the season on the injured list while he deals with a “dead arm.”
• Giants righty Hayden Birdsong will undergo Tommy John surgery, taking him out for all of 2026.
• Jurickson Profar’s 162-game suspension for testing positive for PEDs has been upheld upon appeal.
• Major League Baseball has agreed to a multi-year deal Polymarket, who will become the exclusive prediction-market partner of the league.
• Longtime Mets broadcaster Howie Rose announced that he is retiring following the 2026 season.
• Former Mariners lefty and current Angel Yusei Kikuchi revealed that he was so upset after Japan lost in the quarterfinal of the World Baseball Classic that he “couldn’t sleep all night,“ a notable departure from his usual 13-14 hours.
• Kiri Oller at Fangraphs continued their Positional Power Rankings series by diving into center field, where the Mariners’ Julio Rodríguez reigns supreme.
• Will Leitch and Mike Petriello drafted the 2026 World Series favorites.

Earlier this year, I tried to gauge how much the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike) Challenge System’s introduction into the game would affect the value of the catcher position for the San Diego Padres. 

Eventually I concluded with the idea that those who were elite with the system would be given more leeway to challenge (thereby having a much greater ability to influence the game). 

Enter Freddy Fermin

Among qualified hitters (more than three plate appearances), Fermin has the highest batting average on the Padres. Through 12 contests this spring, the backstop has hit .412 with two home runs and 11 RBI. 

That puts him with an OPS of 1.120. For reference, New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge had a 1.145 OPS last season. 

I’m not saying that Fermin can keep up that level of production at the major league level and compete with Judge. But it’s a great sign of his bat having life in it. 

For someone the Friars paid an arm and a leg for, it’s great to see him produce. The hope, obviously, is that it’ll carry over to the regular season, and to the next two years of his contract. 

Additional value in ABS

But going back to the new implementation of ABS. It’s been a storyline all offseason and will continue to be for most of this regular season with its introduction into MLB. 

Fermin has heralded its entrance quite well, leading the league in challenge win rate (among catchers to call for at least 10 challenges) with 86 percent.

The closest one behind him is San Francisco Giants two-time Gold Glover Patrick Bailey (83%). 

Fermin is due for a breakout year. It will be his first full season as the primary catcher for a club after serving as the backup behind Salvador Perez in Kansas City to start his career. 

His emergence as a hitter and elite defender would go a long, long way toward winning games in San Diego. If this translates into the regular season, the Friars will have gotten a bargain with Fermin behind the dish.

Morning everyone and welcome back to another beautiful Friday!

The A’s made the expected announcement late yesterday afternoon that staff leader Luis Severino will indeed get the ball for the Athletics on Opening Day in Toronto to take on the Blue Jays:

Luis Severino will start for the A’s in Toronto on Opening Day, per Mark Kotsay. This will be Severino’s second consecutive Opening Day start with the A’s and third overall.

— Martín Gallegos (@MartinJGallegos) March 19, 2026

This announcement comes as almost zero surprise. Severino is the unquestioned best option for the assignment and his salary matches that. The right-hander has only pitched in one spring contest for the A’s so far but he made three starts for the Dominican Republic recently, including two during the World Baseball Classic. In those contests he looked sharp, reaching 40, 60, and 68, with his final start coming against the United States in the semi-finals. The 32-year-old has pitched in tons of big games during his career and A’s fans are hoping he can be that guy for them soon.

Still, last year’s quick start on the first day of the long regular season did not portend to coming success. Instead Severino was a tale of two pitchers, struggling at home while thriving and looking every bit the part of the pitcher that the A’s gave a record-setting contract to. He definitely had his moments and hot streaks, but he also had some epic meltdowns as well. Severino ultimately made almost every start, save for a few near the end of the year when the season was already over. In his first year in the Green & Gold Severino finished with a 4.54 ERA across 29 starts, racking up a solid 2.5 WAR in the process.

This’ll be his second Opening Day start for the A’s in as many years, and third in his career after taking the ball for the New York Yankees back in 2018. In that start way back then, he pitched 5 2/3 innings of one-hit ball against…. the Toronto Blue Jays. And with the Athletics last year he also had a shutout appearance as he held down the Seattle Mariners to three hits over six strong innings of work. He’d end up not getting the well-deserved win that evening, and it wasn’t even a sign of things to come as Sevy had a roller coaster first year with the A’s.

The only other options the A’s could have been seriously considering were left-hander Jeffrey Springs (who is expected to get the ball for Game 2) or possibly Luis Morales. Springs on paper would seem like nearly as good a bet to get the Opening Day nod, but the lefty hasn’t had a good spring so far and notoriously got off to a horrible start to his season last year. Morales meanwhile is just barely not a rookie anymore after making 9 starts for the A’s down the final stretch last year. It wasn’t completely out of the realm of possibility after the A’s went with another inexperienced rookie in Kyle Muller just a couple of years ago, but with Morales’ lack of innings under his belt, not to mention experience, it would have been plain mean to send him into Toronto on Opening Day, against the defending American League Champions, no less.

Speaking of the Jays, Severino will have quite the challenge for him waiting north of the border. Though they lost star shortstop Bo Bichette this offseason this Jays offense is just as dangerous as the Athletics’ lineup. Anchored by likely future Hall-of-Famer Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Blue Jays also have star hitters like George Springer and Alejando Kirk, not to mention quality bats like Daulton Varsho, Addison Barger and brief-Athletic Ernie Clement. Oh, add in the wild card in Kazuma Okamoto the slugging third baseman from overseas. On the plus side for Severino, he’s done well against Toronto in his career (3.86 ERA in 16 starts), and add in that Vlad Jr., Kirk, Okamoto and Clement are right-handed hitters. So there’s that small advantage.

Wasn’t really a surprise but now we have it official. Who else is ready to see Severino shut down the defending AL Champions on their home turf next Friday? Something to get excited about! Have a good weekend A’s fans!

A’s Coverage:

• AN Exclusive: Blogfather Toes The Rubber With Pitching Coach Scott Emerson
• AN Exclusive: Blogfather Catches Up With Starting Pitcher Jacob Lopez
• Athletics drop one to the White Sox 6-4
• Eyeball Scout Wowed By 12— Win: Lots To Love
• March Reminder: Opening Day Rosters Matter More To The Fans
• A’s Lose To Texas 7-6 in Spring Training Matchup
• Can Muncy’s glove catch up to his bat at third base?
• A’s Slug Their Way To Fifth Straight Cactus League Victory
• What Have We Learned So Far In Spring Training?
• Jacob Wilson Has a Message For A’s Fans in the Bay Area
• Young, talented Athletics need veterans to show the way
• Here’s the A’s player pool for their Spring Breakout game
• FOX5, Silver State Sports Network to broadcast A’s games this season
• How Worried Should A’s Be About NBA Expansion in Las Vegas?

MLB News and Interest:

• Blue Jays starter Trey Yesavage to begin season on IL
• Former Athletic Jurickson Profar loses appeal, to serve 162-game suspension
• Rays shortstop Taylor Walls to begin season on IL
• Giants option Carson Wisenhunt, Jesus Rodriguez
• Nationals option Josiah Gray, Robert Hassell III
• Caleb Durbin wins Red Sox third base job; Marcelo Mayer likely to play second base
• Shortstop Paul deJong won’t opt out of Yankees deal
• Infielder Dylan Moore triggers opt out in Phillies deal
• MLB joins prediction market with Polymarket deal
• Barry Bonds, CC Sabathia to join Netflix to call Yankees-Giants Opening Night
• World Baseball Classic thriving, MLB considers midseason tournament
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

Any chance the front office gets the green light for something like that?

Insiders to @ByRobertMurray on a Nick Kurtz mega-deal 👀💰

“Kurtz is 22 with a year of service… They’d have to do a monster deal, IMO… I would say if it’s not a 10 year deal, kick rocks.”

“If he waits, he could get a Juan Soto type deal.” pic.twitter.com/o3mmRKMLbs

— SleeperAthletics (@SleeperAth) March 19, 2026

A fun rabbit hole to go down…

The idea that Oakland “never had a stadium plan” is completely false.

There were REAL, viable paths to keep the A’s in Oakland.

So what actually happened? 🧵👇🏻

— (Un)Rooted In Oakland (@OaklandRooted) March 19, 2026

Would the A’s have made the same request as the Padres regarding Mason Miller?

The Padres told Team USA that Mason Miller could only pitch in a save situation.

The Yankees told Team USA that David Bednar was unavailable.

The Cubs told Venezuela that Daniel Palencia could only pitch in a save situation.

There were other pitchers Venezuela didn’t have…

— Christian (@Christian_NYYST) March 18, 2026

Sneak peak of what’s to come on Sunday:

Watching the Phillies vs. Twins Spring breakout game & there have been no less than 56 “dings” or text alerts in 2minutes & I now understand the fury of the chat from the Live stream we did the other night with @baseballisdead_ . #KingDing

— Dallas Braden (@DALLASBRADEN209) March 19, 2026

As the Red Sox approach Opening Day, it’s time to start taking at look at the other American League playoff contenders. Next up, a team that’s led by an MVP candidate.

---

What’s this team’s deal?

In 2024 the Royals bounced back from a 106-loss season to win 86 games and finish in second place in the AL Central. Those Royals would sweep their Wild Card series against the Baltimore Orioles before falling to the Yankees in the ALDS. It looked like a Kansas City miracle. 2025 would see a chunk of that progress fall back to earth. Regression to the mean comes for us all. But they still won 82 games last year.

This winter the Royals added outfielders Starling Marte and Lane Thomas. They’ll join top prospect Jac Caglianone in his sophomore season in the majors. Caglianone is fresh off a WBC run with Team Italy that saw him slash .286/.500/.571 with a home run and a K:BB of 4:5. Extreme sample and quality sizes abound with the WBC, but this is a guy who put up a OPS north of 1.000 in AAA. They’re expecting some runs like that mixed into a full season.

How good are they?

Bobby Witt Jr. was a superstar again and finished fourth in AL MVP voting. He was an All Star. He won a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove. When you commit to essentially a forever deal with a player, that’s what you want to see.

KC also saw a breakout season for third baseman Maikel Garcia. He finished 14th in MVP voting, was an All Star, won a Silver Slugger, and earned himself an extension that runs at least through 2030. Oh yeah, he also won WBC MVP this week after Venezuela took the championship. From Opening Day 2025 to Opening Day 2026 he’s had a pretty good year.

Vinnie Pasquantino bounced back from an injury-shortened 2024 season to play in 160 games last year, hitting .264/.323/.475 with a personal best 32 home runs. “Where’s the f’ing wine?“ indeed. Pasquatch looks ready to be the solid contributor at first base they need. Especially when he’s beaned up.

The starting rotation features Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Noah Cameron, and Kris Bubic. The Royals had one of the better rotations in the game last season by ERA and are set to do so again with this crew. Lugo and Wacha are in their mid-30s, but the other three are all under 30.

They acquired former Red Sox pitcher and Matt Strahm to shore up the bullpen.

You may remember Aaron Sanchez from his time on the Blue Jays a decade ago. Well, he’s in camp as a non-roster invitee and is still just 33 years old. Old friend John Schreiber is still there, too.

There are a lot of questions in the rotation — even if it can be good. The lineup is Witt, Pasquantino, Garcia, and Perez with maybe Caglianone joining them. They need a bounce-back season from Jonathan India.

The WBC featured a number of Royals across the teams in the tournament and there is talent here, but is there enough? Bobby Witt Jr. is still just one person in the lineup.

Who’s their most likeable player?

Most likeable isn’t always synonymous with best, but in this instance there’s a strong case for it. Bobby Witt Jr. is always playing hard out there and looks like he’s loving every second of it. How can you not root for that?

Who’s their least likeable player?

I almost want to say Salvador Perez because it feels like he’s always hitting against the Red Sox. As it turns out though, .276/.308/.483 isn’t his best split against a team. And his 16 homers are just second to teams not in the AL Central (he has 17 against the Yankees). That’s not really enough to override his general status as a catching legend. He’s been around so long he feels like a familiar opponent but without real hard feelings.

Michael Wacha, has, if anything, been a little worse for the Royals than he was in Boston, as his health and performance continue to fluctuate wildly.

Matt Strahm’s hair is just…scary.

Maybe this space gets filled by Jac Caglianone. Did you know that the C in Jac stands for Caglianone? His name is Jeffrey Allen Caglianone, but he goes by Jac, like a PIN Number. What are we even doing here?

Schedule against the Red Sox

The Red Sox will be in Kansas City May 18-20 and the Royals visit Fenway Park from September 11-13.

Season Prediction

With some health and progress from their younger players like Caglianone and Garcia — and in an AL Central that’s probably weak after the Tigers — they could bounce right back up to 84-85 wins. They can maybe even sneak into the division lead if things go wrong in Detroit and they flip Tarik Skubal this summer.

Six days remain until Opening Day. As things stand now, playoff odds at both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus give a pretty good chance that all three AL wild cards will come out of the AL East. There is also a decent chance that things go outside of this conventional wisdom and that the Orioles, if they find themselves in a wild card race, will be fighting for space with teams from one of the other divisions in the AL.

Essentially, every team except for the White Sox has at least a little bit of a chance, according to these models. The Angels have a modest 5% postseason chance on FG, though PECOTA puts them under 1%. Even the Athletics who play in Sacramento but do not officially use its name get an 11.8% at PECOTA and as high as 24.2% at FG. There have been a lot of seasons in my life where the Orioles having a one in four chance of making the postseason before it began would have seemed good. This is not one of those seasons.

When I wrote a version of this article one year ago, the wild card seemed like a fallback if the Orioles couldn’t compete for the division. As things played out, they didn’t even compete for the wild card. If things go better this year – but not radically better – here’s who the Orioles might be contending with to make it back into the postseason.

Detroit Tigers

• Last season: 87-75, 2nd place, 1 GB in Central (Wild Card 3)
• Projected wins: 87 (FanGraphs) / 83 (PECOTA)
• Key subtractions: Pretty much nobody who was good last year
• Key additions: Kenley Jansen (free agent), Framber Valdez (free agent), Justin Verlander (free agent)

I wrote a year ago that the Tigers were largely trying to run it back from a disappointing 2024 and now they’re trying to run it back from a better 2025. That is, run it back plus adding Valdez to a rotation that includes the record-setting-salary two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal at the top of it. They even managed to hold on to guys who became free agents, since Gleyber Torres accepted the qualifying offer and they re-signed their midseason trade rental Kyle Finnegan. There’s even a Verlander reunion in here, though whether that proves to be good for the team is less certain.

One part of Detroit’s revival of fortunes in 2025 was an improved offense, with a number of guys who’d struggled, including the former 1-1 Spencer Torkelson, getting better to help get the Tigers to at least a league average offense. If your pitching staff is good enough, a league average offense will do. Other than Skubal, it wasn’t exactly, but now they’ve got Skubal and Valdez and whatever’s left of Verlander, so that could be another story this year.

Kansas City Royals

• Last season: 82-80, 3rd place, 6 GB in Central
• Projected wins: 81 (FG) / 85 (PECOTA)
• Key subtractions: Mike Yastrzemski (free agent), Hunter Harvey (free agent), Adam Frazier (free agent), Angel Zerpa (traded to Brewers)
• Key additions: Isaac Collins and Nick Mears (trade with Brewers), Matt Strahm (trade with Phillies), Starling Marte (free agent)

Kansas City may not be doing a “run it back” to the same degree that Detroit is, but there is a whole lot of continuity here, including five of the six starting pitchers who made at least 10 starts last year. The one guy they didn’t bring back is the guy who had the worst ERA out of those six. There was some bullpen shuffling for what was largely a disappointing group.

Among the position players, they’ve got to rely on continuing to get star-level performance from Bobby Witt Jr. The Royals bet big on infielder Maikel Garcia this offseason, giving him a five-year contract extension. What they really need to improve is a bad-hitting outfield. Collins, acquired from Milwaukee, is part of that. KC could also use better hitting from Kyle Isbel (.654 OPS) and, more crucially, recent #6 overall pick Jac Caglianone (.532 OPS in 62 games).

Minnesota Twins

• Last season: 70-92, 4th place, 18 GB in Central
• Projected wins: 78 (FG) / 79 (PECOTA)
• Key subtractions: Pablo López (Tommy John surgery)
• Key additions: Josh Bell (free agent), Victor Caratini (free agent), Taylor Rogers (free agent)

A lot of analyst commentary spent this offseason assuming that the Twins would be making salary-slashing trades that they never actually made. Perhaps, in the case of López, they ought to have done this, but they didn’t. They kept him, they kept Joe Ryan, they kept the oft-injured Byron Buxton. Minnesota did its salary cutting at last year’s trade deadline, notably getting rid of Carlos Correa, so they will be bringing something of a different look into 2026 compared to Opening Day 2025.

The Twins plan for 2026 contention probably involves Buxton staying healthy and getting a lot of improvement from the arms in their rotation behind Ryan. That includes their home-grown guy Bailey Ober (5.10 ERA in 2025) and July 2025 acquisitions Taj Bradley and Mick Abel. I will be interested to see as 2026 plays out whether the Orioles might have been better off trying to trade for Ryan than signing Zach Eflin and Chris Bassitt.

Cleveland Guardians

• Last season: 88-74, 1st place in Central
• Projected wins: 76 (FG) / 76 (PECOTA)
• Key subtractions: Emmanuel Clase (gambling scandal)
• Key additions: Pretty much nobody

The most substantial move these Guardians did this offseason was reach another contract extension with their career-long star, José Ramírez. He also happens to be the only good hitter on this team. Cleveland won the division last year while getting a .670 OPS from its offense. They overperformed their Pythagorean expected record by eight wins last year and kept nearly everything the same. It is not a surprise to see the projection systems not being high on this strategy. It might work out anyway. Cleveland has won this division six times in the last ten years.

Seattle Mariners

• Last season: 90-72, 1st place in West
• Projected wins: 88 (FG) / 94 (PECOTA)
• Key subtractions: Cal Raleigh’s likeability (WBC shenanigans), Jorge Polanco (free agent)
• Key additions: Jose A. Ferrer (trade with Nationals), Brendan Donovan (three-way trade from Cardinals)

This was a pretty good offense last year, with Raleigh’s star breakout powering a lot along with a revival of fortunes for Julio Rodríguez. It was a good hitting group almost from top-to-bottom, though, with only two real weaknesses. One of those was third base, which they shored up substantially – at least on paper – with the acquisition of Donovan. The Mariners big offseason move was re-signing their own guy, Josh Naylor, who they’d acquired from the Diamondbacks in July.

Add in a starting rotation that should have three or four league average-or-better guys and an elite closer in Andrés Muñoz and that’s a good recipe to try to repeat a division title and maybe win Game 7 to go to the World Series rather than lose it.

Houston Astros

• Last season: 87-75, 2nd place, 3 GB in West
• Projected wins: 81 (FG) / 85 (PECOTA)
• Key subtractions: Framber Valdez (free agent), Victor Caratini (free agent)
• Key additions: Joey Loperfido (trade with Blue Jays), Tatsuya Imai (posted international free agent)

Houston had been on a run of making the postseason every year from 2017 until they missed out last year. They didn’t miss out by much, but still. That team lost Valdez to free agency, perhaps choosing not to retain their own player because he was looking for an ace payday while not even being the Astros ace in 2025.

Replacing Valdez in the rotation is Japanese pitcher Tatsuya Imai, whose profile ultimately left MLB teams uncertain about him. Imai secured a contract that will allow him to opt out for a bigger payday if he pitches as well as he believes he can. If that’s the case, the Astros will benefit for this year. If it doesn’t work out, $18 million per year is an expense they can absorb.

Texas Rangers

• Last season: 81-81, 3rd place, 9 GB in West
• Projected wins: 81 (FG) / 83 (PECOTA)
• Key subtractions: Marcus Semien (trade with Mets)
• Key additions: Brandon Nimmo (trade with Mets), Danny Jansen (free agent), MacKenzie Gore (trade with Nationals)

The 2023 World Series from Texas, following 60- and 68-win seasons and succeeded by 78- and 81-win seasons, looks more like a fluke the more time that passes. The flag will, as they say, fly forever. They’ve swapped old, expensive guys in the Semien-for-Nimmo deal, shored up a weakness at catcher with the Jansen free agent deal, and made a big swing on Gore by trading a prospect package as if he’s the top-end starting rotation that he’s never actually been yet.

The projection systems are not high on this all working out for them. That doesn’t mean that it can’t happen. As we know from past eras of Orioles success, if two or three things go right beyond what any projection system envisioned, it’s not that hard to go from that to blowing past your projected win total by ten or more. Texas’s upside relative to the projections is probably in its rotation: Gore finally blossoming, Jacob deGrom staying in good health, Nathan Eovaldi carrying forward his 1.73 ERA in 22 starts into a full season.

**

Will I look stupid at season’s end for not including the Athletics, Angels, or White Sox in this article? It is up to them to do that to me. Sitting here in mid-March, I will not be bothered.

Which of these other teams concerns you the most as possible wild card contenders for the Orioles?

It’s hard to believe, but today we stand only six days away from the Cubs’ first 2026 regular season game, which will be next Thursday at Wrigley Field against the Washington Nationals.

Here’s a first look at the weather forecast:

Thursday

A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 58.

Honestly? That wouldn’t be too bad, as long as the “chance” turns into “nope.”

Here’s who I think will be standing on the third-base line to be introduced to the Wrigley crowd next Thursday.

Catchers (2)

Miguel Amaya, Carson Kelly

Nothing to really discuss here. These two are a solid catching tandem.

Infielders (5)

Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, Matt Shaw

I’m listing Shaw as an infielder even though he could very well be in right field on Opening Day if Seiya Suzuki’s injury forces him to the injured list, something that hasn’t yet been determined.

Outfielders (5)

Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, Dylan Carlson, Michael Conforto

With the possibility that Suzuki’s not available, Carlson and Conforto could both make the Opening Day roster. Incidentally, PCA and Bregman are expected back in camp today, but likely won’t play in a game until tomorrow or Sunday.

Designated hitter (1)

Moisés Ballesteros

I’m listing Ballesteros here because that’s what he will be most of the time — the team’s DH. Interesting article here by Patrick Mooney in The Athletic about Ballesteros:

“I’ve suggested to the hitting coaches that they stay away from him,” Counsell said. “I did have a meeting with the hitting coaches at one point this spring. I called them all together, and they got a little nervous. I said, ‘You guys should stay away from Ballesteros.’

“Joking, you know, but they got the message.”

Ballesteros might never become more than an emergency/occasional catcher in MLB, but the man can hit. In Spring Training so far he’s batting .355/.394/.613 (11-for-33) in 11 games with two doubles, two home runs and eight RBI.

Starting pitchers (5)

Matthew Boyd, Edward Cabrera, Cade Horton, Shōta Imanaga, Jameson Taillon

We already know that Boyd will start the Opening Day game. Beyond that Craig Counsell hasn’t announced his rotation, so the rest are listed in alphabetical order.

For the record, I am not concerned about Taillon, who’s had a terrible spring. Nor am I concerned about Imanaga, who had an outstanding outing on Tuesday. I had written that he had 23 whiffs in that outing; the correct number is 25, which is the most by any Cub in any game, spring or not, since Yu Darvish had 26 in 2020.

Relief pitchers (8)

Daniel Palencia, Hunter Harvey, Phil Maton, Hoby Milner, Caleb Thielbar, Jacob Webb, Colin Rea, Gavin Hollowell

It’s possible the Cubs keep Ben Brown in the pen to start the season, although he might also be sent to Triple-A Iowa to be stretched out to start. The same is true of Javier Assad, I think. Hollowell has had a good spring (24 batters faced, 11 strikeouts), but he is optionable, so it’s possible someone else might take that spot. One thing Jed Hoyer has been really good at is identifying scrap-heap relievers who have come to Chicago and succeeded.

Of the eight relievers listed above, only two (Rea and Thielbar) were on last year’s Opening Day roster and four (Harvey, Maton, Milner, Webb) were not in the Cubs organization at all in 2025.