Category: Baseball

Man, am I sorry for the Cub fans who jumped off the bandwagon and decided to pack it in early for “Wait ‘til next year.” While there might be some efficiency in doing that and almost certainly an avoidance of future heartache and frustration, this team is a lot of fun when it’s going good. This third hot streak of the year continues to roll in a game that got so comically out of hand that the Padres went to a position player in the seventh inning. Between Wednesday’s blowout win and last week’s double header sweep of the Mets, these have been some of the most fun days I can remember.

The script remains the same for this team. In more than half their wins they have scored nine or (many) more runs or won in their last team at-bat. If this team doesn’t blow the other team out of the water, there’s a good chance they won’t win it until late in the game. In this game, they blew out real early. Seiya Suzuki slugged a three-run homer in the first inning and the Cubs were quickly off to the races. Walker Buehler had been throwing pretty well for the Padres, but he was clocked for nine earned runs in this one. That was only one more than Padre catcher Rodolfo Duran ended up being tagged with in relief.

The Cubs piled up 17 hits and drew seven walks in this one. If those numbers weren’t crazy enough, it was the eight homers that was the eye popping number. Dansby Swanson had his first career three homer game and missed another one by maybe a foot. Michael Conforto had his first two-homer game as a Cub. Alex Bregman was designated to make the outs for the team and was 0-5 with a walk. Seven different Cubs drove in runs, led by Dansby Swanson who has fixed his offensive numbers to a large degree over the last two weeks. 10 different Cubs scored runs, led by four from Conforto and Swanson.

The Cubs had a team line of .405/.490/1.024 (wRC+ 309). Of course these numbers are inflated by silly time at the end of the game. You have to finish the game. The Cubs were pretty aggressive at the plate, but they weren’t passing the opportunity to take some quality rips.

On the other side, Colin Rea did his best Javier Assad impression, wherein he allowed a ton of baserunners but somehow escaped trouble over and over again. He three five non-impressive innings and got a win for his efforts. Do you love a pitcher win more with 13 runs scored during your five innings of work or a three-inning save? That makes three of the latter for the Cubs this year.

Jordan Wicks moved into second on the team in saves with his three innings of one-run ball. In his two appearances since being recalled, he has been handed a three-run lead in the 10th at Milwaukee and a 13-run lead against the Padres on a windy day in Chicago and asked not to blow them. He did not blow either one. I’m at least curious to see if Wicks benefits at all from being used out of the pen. As Andrew Chafin reminds us, most relievers are just failed starters. I can’t ever remember watching Wicks pitch and being impressed, but I’m sure it is possible I’ve blocked something out.

The team now sits 11 over .500 at 49-38. As of this morning, there are just four teams with more wins than this Cubs team. The team is flawed, I get it. Of all of the competitive teams in the Ricketts era, it might be the most flawed team. But this team is fun. This team can buzzsaw you. The Padres team the they just swept is also a flawed team. A flawed team that is pretty good. They are no joke. The Cubs just posted 35 runs across three games. Ignoring the eight by a position player, that is 27 runs in 25 innings as they didn’t bat in the ninth the last two games. That’s quite an outburst. The 12 they allowed doesn’t look outlandish, and you feel better in that seven of them came in one game while they were nursing a pretty large lead (at least initially).

I don’t know what anyone is going to do about the Dodgers. There are no rules that stop them from hiring a small market wizard to run one of the very largest market teams. But they are terrifying. They are an organization that churns out elite talent from their system year after year after year. And when there is something they don’t have and can’t trade for with enormous prospect capital, they buy it. They don’t ever have to shop in the clearance rack. But hey, small market wizard, right? They shop in all of the bins. They are a problem.

Aside from the Dodgers, there is no team that you wouldn’t expect to have a puncher’s chance against. This team can pack a pretty significant punch. Especially if they can get any number of their key pitchers standing upright with their arm properly attached come playoff time.

What a time to be a Cub fan.

Three Positives:

• Dansby Swanson is scorching the ball right now. Three homers, eight runs batted in and four runs scored. Two of his homers were pre garbage time.
• Michael Conforto had three hits, two of them homers and was intentionally walked. He drove in four and scored four.
• Seiya Suzuki kicked off the scoring with his three-run homer. He had a double and a single as well and drew a walk. He scored three to go with the three RBI. His season line is up to .274/.357/.466 (wRC+ 128). He is a force offensively.
• Obligatory PCA line: two hits, one a homer, stolen base, three runs driven in, two scored. Didn’t play in garbage time.

Game 87, July 1: Cubs 23, Padres 3 (49-38)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Seiya Suzuki (.195). 3-5, HR, 2B, BB, 3 RBI, 3 R
• Hero: Colin Rea (.122). 5 IP, 25 BF, 6 H, 3 BB, 2 ER, 5 K (W 6-5)
• Sidekick: Dansby Swanson (.090). 3-5, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 4 R

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Michael Busch (-.066). 2-6, HR, RBI, 2 R
• Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.020). 0-3, BB
• Kid: Michael Conforto (-.003). 3-4, 2 HR, BB, 4 RBI, 4 R

WPA Notes: WPA does not care how much traffic a pitcher allows. Assuming you finish the inning, it’s binary. Did runs score? Conforto made an out the first time up and it got lopsided fast. So he ends up with one of the best lines I’ve ever seen on the wrong side of the ledger.

WPA Play of the Game: Seiya Suzuki’s first inning three-run homer. It came with runners on first and third with one out. (.187)

Padres Play of the Game: As has happened so many times recently, the other biggest play immediately preceded it. Michael Busch struck out for the first out of the inning. (.058)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 86 Winner: Dansby Swanson received 95 of 134 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong +17
• Ben Brown +13.5
• Trent Thornton +12.5
• Michael Busch +12
• Carson Kelly +11.5
• Dansby Swanson -9
• Edward Cabrera -9.5
• Phil Maton -10
• Seiya Suzuki -11.5
• Caleb Thielbar -13

Up Next: An off day Thursday. The Cardinals (44-39) come to town. They lost to the Braves Wednesday night and play them again in Atlanta before heading to Chicago. Go Braves. The Cubs haven’t named a starter for the Friday game yet. Andre Pallante (9-5, 3.83) will be the Cardinals starter. This should be David Peterson’s spot for the Cubs. He is 4-6 with a 5.86 ERA, but looked good in his Cub debut in Milwaukee (5.2 IP, 5 H, 0 BB, 2 ER).

The Cubs will seek a sixth straight win and their 16th win in 20 games.

June was everything you expect from summer in Chicago. The White Sox feasted on the AL Central’s collapse and picked up a few unexpected wins during the East Coast road trip. While there are many strong takeaways from June, a gap still hasn’t been fully patched.

The Sox don’t need Munetaka Murakami, and they don’t need big contracts…but it sure would help

At first, losing Mune to a hamstring strain left me feeling defeated. Winning was fun while it lasted, right? Wrong. Without Murakami, the Sox lineup hit about the same as they did with him.

In June, Chicago slashed .255/.325/.443, scoring 138 runs and slamming 38 home runs. Compared to May, when Murakami had a monster slugging month, the Sox hit more consistently at the small cost of 12 fewer runs and four fewer dingers. Although they won fewer games, Chicago’s overall performance dip should be attributed to its shakier pitching, as evident by the +32 run differential in May versus +10 in June.

Losing Murakami likely through the All-Star break threw a wrench in the excitement, but this team didn’t collapse. Chicago’s front office has managed to assemble a winning team costing less than $115 million, and has found more success than five teams ranked in the top 10 in payroll. Money doesn’t always buy effectiveness.

In the same vein, their expensive closer Seranthony Domínguez, who’s rolling in his $10 million average annual value salary, isn’t coming close to earning his money. The 31-year-old reliever had a poor June, posting a 5.40 ERA with five walks while only converting one of three save opportunities. Sean Newcomb, Grant Taylor, Bryan Hudson, and Chris Murphy all pitched better than Domínguez, and their salaries combine to just over $6 million. 

This team has never thrived more on its ability to maximize limited resources than now, but that doesn’t mean some expensive firepower won’t take it to new heights. If Chris Getz is smart, he’ll start cashing in his infield capital and abundance of Triple-A talent to acquire some high-end starters to keep the arms from getting too stale.

Chicago’s catching depth still hasn’t been resolved

Last year, the dynamic Kyle Teel–Edgar Quero catching duo seemed to be the solution to Chicago’s catching depth problems dating back to 2012, when A.J. Pierzynski and Tyler Flowers ranked sixth in the league in WAR among catchers (1.7). But that overflowing talent pool has quickly shriveled up.

Teel missed nearly half the season and is still finding his footing since suffering a hamstring strain during the World Baseball Classic. It’s too early to tell how he’ll fare over the rest of the season, but his early numbers at the plate and behind the dish say that he’ll either experience a backslide, or his IL recovery might take some time to iron itself out. Quero, on the other hand, has experienced one hell of a sophomore slump. He went from slashing .268/.333/.356 in 111 games in 2025 to hitting below the Mendoza line and recording a meager .233 slugging percentage. Quero is ranked 94th among big league catchers with -19 overturns versus expected by the average catcher and -3.6 runs, which includes challenges as a batter and fielder, amounting to a 47% challenge success rate.

Things look even worse considering Quero’s framing and block grades are -4 and -6, putting him in the bottom 10%. His performance was so lackluster that he got the boot back to Charlotte when Teel came off the IL.

Korey Lee and Drew Romo don’t deepen the depth chart dramatically. Lee seems to be in professional baseball purgatory, with never being able to outplay the Quad-A hitting and catching standard he’s sustained since 2024. And Romo, who is somehow still on the 26-man roster, is batting worse than all three ever have.

Perhaps that’s why Getz swapped Charlotte’s best relief arm for a catcher who hasn’t caught in Triple-A since 2024. The Sox aren’t in danger at catcher, but the expectedly long offseason should give enough time to address the situation fully.

Summary Metrics

Chris Getz Trade Confidence (How much better does a Chris Getz trade make this team?): 15%

Average Drinks Required (Average number of alcoholic drinks required to tolerate this team): 2.75 – a light buzz won’t kill anyone, but the starters sometimes prompt a heavier pour

Rebuild Index (1 is full rebuild, 5 is sustaining current pace, 10 is aggressively pursuing a World Series): 7

Welcome to Thursday A’s fans!

The squad managed to avoid a sweep yet again last night, winning the series finale in convincing fashion against the Los Angeles Dodgers. It brought the A’s record to 41-46 and with the weak AL West that’s good enough to be just three games out of first place.

The A’s now have a day off to rest and recuperate before welcoming the Miami Marlins to town. The Marlins came into this season with low expectations but they’ve surpassed them and then some. At 46-40 not only do they have a better record than every team in the AL West, but they’re also third in arguably the toughest division in baseball, the NL East. They also come to Sacramento riding a a hot streak, having won two in a row and taking 10 of their past 12 contests. Wrong time to be facing the Fish right now.

Miami has worked as a team to help them to their successful first half. While they’re second-to-last in the National League in home runs, they’re sixth in batting average, fifth in on-base percentage, and tied for 7th (with the Giants) in OPS. What they’ve lacked in power they’ve made up for with speed as their 94 steals are tops in the entire sport. They have four players already in double-digit swipes so A’s catchers will likely have their hands full with Marlins on the basepaths. Plus, they’ve been without their top power threat in Kyle Stowers for portions of this year but he’s back and hitting well since his return. Miami could be a buyer this deadline season.

The Miami starting rotation also has a couple bright spots. Max Meyer, a former 3rd overall pick in the draft, has broken out and is one of the best arms in the NL this year. Former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara hasn’t been quite found his old form but has generally given them a chance to win when he takes the mound. And Eury Perez has also been adequate, though not quite living up to the hype that surrounded him when he arrived to the big leagues. We’re likely to see Meyer this weekend but probably not Alcantara or Perez since they started the Marlins’ past two games.

Anyway, the A’s. Unfortunately the bad injury news keeps on coming for the squad. Two days ago we learned that Designated Hitter Brent Rooker isn’t making as much progress in his return from the knee injury that landed him on the injured list at the beginning of June…

… but just last night just an hour or so before first pitch, the A’s announced the bad news: Rooker would be undergoing the knife, ending his season prematurely:

Not great news. Though Rooker was suffering his worst season to date with the Athletics (.200/.281/.389, 10 home runs), the club would surely have prefered their expensive DH to be playing and trying to right himself. He’s hit at least 30 home runs the past three years and the A’s were counting on that production in the middle of the lineup this season. Instead he’s been on the shelf since the first week of June and that’s where he’ll remain the rest of 2026.

It’s a brutal blow for Rooker, who likely wanted to come back, turn his season around, and help drive the A’s to the playoffs. Now he’ll begin the process of rehabbing his knee and hopefully being 100% ready to go next year, when he’ll be 32-years-old. That’s no spring chicken but he’s still locked in with the A’s for another three years, and his salary is about to make a big jump this offseason from $8 million this year to $14 million next season. The club will certainly take things slow with Rook to make sure this surgery and rehab goes as perfectly as possible. The A’s can’t afford to have that big a salary be an anchor and still compete.

Originally placed on the IL with what the team called a “bone bruise”, it’s now officially to the point where the club needs to stop thinking of a stopgap for his roster spot, and start thinking about how they’re going to replace him for the final three months of the season. The most likely option is to just simply stick in-house and rotate guys like Carlos Cortes, Lawence Butler, Shea Langeliers and others in and out of that spot depending on who Kotsay wants to give a half-day off to. It wouldn’t cost the A’s anything as far as prospects or salary, and the team could get some answers regarding some of their young bats, but the floor is also much lower without a more proven hitter in that spot.

If the club has their sights set on the postseason and wants to bolster the DH spot, the front office had better at least be doing their due diligence on guys that could step into the roll for half a season. Would the A’s make a bold trade for someone like the Giants’ Luis Arraez? Or someone a bit less costly like the Rockies’ Mickey Moniak or Boston’s Willson Contreras? Who would you guys target now that Rooker is indeed done for the year?

No game today everyone, but we have a big Fourth of July weekend ahead of us! Have a great one guys.

A’s Coverage:

• Julyeball Scout Report As Hopes, Like The Sun, Sink Slowly In The West
• Thoughts And Well Wishes For A’s Prospect Ryan Lasko
• A’s Take Series Finale, Beat Dodgers 7-1
• Dodgers Overwhelm A’s Once Again
• A’s Drop Series Opener To Dodgers 9-4
• A’s roster moves: Massive Shakeup
• A’s To Trade Brett Harris To Red Sox
• It’s Harder To Win When You Don’t Understand Your Own Personnel
• Fun Parallels To 2012 Emerging
• What Kade Morris’ Role Will Look Like for A’s in Future
• Some Easy Fixes Rocket Science Aren’t
• Athletics’ Devin Taylor Emerges As All-Around Talent
• From celebratory pool dip to the A’s, Meneses’ journey back to Majors a memorable one
• Athletics Could Deal Hottest Triple-A Bat This Summer
• Status Report: Uncertainty Persists In 5 Places On The Diamond

MLB News and Interest:

• Rangers’ Corey Seager back on IL with lower back inflammation
• Red Sox Place Connelly Early On Injured List
• 2026 All-Star Futures Game rosters revealed
• Mets owner says changes need to be made, but Stearns is staying
• MLBPA seeks larger roster sizes, demotion protection in proposal
• Trade rumors: Skubal, Angels, Yankees, starting pitchers
• Dodgers’ Dave Roberts fastest manager to reach 1,000 career wins
• ‘It’ll never happen again’: Cavalli, GM Toboni address comments, brawl
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

Scary moment down in Double-A last night as outfield prospect Ryan Lasko suffered a collision with fellow outfield prospect Devin Taylor. Lasko was carted off while Taylor stayed in the game:

But at least some good news. Keep Lasko in your thoughts, A’s fans. Get well soon Ryan!

Some “positive” injury news regarding a top prospect:

Leo De Vries and Jamie Arnold are heading to the Futures Game, where many of the game’s current stars made their national debuts:

A former well-regarded prospect is heading to Boston in exchange for a Low-A relief prospect:

And yesterday’s top performer down on the farm:

The San Diego Padres are heading to Dodger Stadium, which has become their house of horrors.

Rarely do the Padres play their best baseball in LA

Since 2021, the Padres have a 16-33 record (.327 winning percentage) against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chavez Ravine. After an embarrassing three days in Chicago, the Friars arrive in Tinseltown for their first series of the season inside Dodger Stadium. They hope to exorcise the demons that caused them despair from seasons past.

Keep in mind, the Dodgers hold a +55-run differential against the Padres at Dodger Stadium since 2021. It has allowed them to leverage their home-field advantage over their chief rival. 

Often, the Friars’ defense self-destructs in Los Angeles, as the Dodgers take full advantage of the team’s mistakes for easy victories. 

San Diego cannot get over the 2024 NLDS defeat

The Friar Faithful have suffered through so many disappointing losses inside Dodger Stadium. But none is bigger than the 2-0 shutout in Game 5 of the 2024 National League Divisional Series. What sunk their hearts was an 8-0 Whitewash in Game 4 at Petco Park. 

The Padres were up 2-1 heading into the contest and looking to send the Dodgers home for the holidays. Losing that divisional series has left an indelible mark on the franchise that has been impossible to remove. 

Those 24 consecutive shutout innings to close out the series may have been the start of the team’s struggles at the plate. 

What is next in the season series

All of their games this season have been played in San Diego, as Los Angeles holds a 4-2 mark in the season series and a 13-game lead in the NL West standings. The crushing defeats have tested the Friar Faithful’s patience to cheer for a directionless, struggling ballclub. 

The bats are slumping, and they cannot be buried by the Dodgers once again. The lineup has to show some signs of life. They cannot fade quietly into the night. The Padres have to breathe more life into their season because it is on life support. 

No one is asking for a series sweep, but the Friars have to change their fortunes by playing smart baseball and winning a couple of games. 

The roster needs to treat Dodger Stadium as another road site on the schedule. The field conditions are ideal for getting on a winning streak.

After last night’s victory, the Braves are shuffling their bench once again. Or, maybe, their not-quite-bench:

This will be Jim Jarvis’ second stint in Atlanta. The 25-year-old infielder made his MLB debut on the Braves’ West Coast trip to Seattle and Los Angeles earlier this season, where he made two starts and collected a single to go with two strikeouts in five PAs. Jarvis has a pretty silly 133 wRC+ at Triple-A Gwinnett this year, but if you put any stock in minor league xStats (not sure if I do or not, truly), he’s way outhitting his xwOBA down there.

It’s unclear whether Jarvis will simply hang around for left-handed depth, or whether things will get more complicated. Ha-Seong Kim is pacing himself for a historically awful season, though he’ll probably improve or just flat-out stop getting playing time if it keeps up. Jorge Mateo was a fun story earlier, but has cratered while trying to play through a mild injury over the last few weeks. Mauricio Dubon, the only Brave to have an unequivocally good June offensively, would be a solution, except that he’s been needed to patch up the Braves’ outfield issues. And then there’s Austin Riley, who appears to be auditioning for a role in a local stage production of Frozen 2 (if you know, you know) moreso than effectively hitting baseballs, so there’s another infield question mark that perhaps Jarvis will be called upon to address in some way.

The roster casualty of Jarvis’ promotion is Rowdy Tellez, who ends this round of his Braves tenure with 11 PAs in which he singled, homered, and walked in 11 PAs. He actually put up a .500+ xwOBA in those 11 PAs, so hard to say he didn’t do his job, but the Braves don’t need two no-field DH guys who probably won’t hit better than league average on the roster.

Jarvis will presumably be around and in uniform as the Braves play a rubber game against the Redbirds later tonight. Will he grab a start somewhere? Stay tuned.

Walker Buehler had been the most consistent starter in the San Diego Padres rotation, but that image took a critical hit when the right-hander allowed nine runs over the first three innings to the Chicago Cubs, and the Padres suffered an embarrassing 23-3 loss to cap a three-game sweep at Wrigley Field on Tuesday.

Buehler was atrocious from the start of the game. He allowed a leadoff single to Pete Crow-Armstrong who stole second and then advanced to third base on a wild pitch. Alex Bregman followed with a walk before Buehler recorded a strikeout against Michael Busch for the first out of the inning. Buehler’s success was short-lived because he then allowed a three-run home run to Seiya Suzuki and that set the stage for the rest of the game.

Buehler then allowed a solo home run to Dansby Swanson in the bottom of the second inning and followed that with a two-out two run single and a two-out three-run homer – again to Swanson – in the bottom of the third inning that gave the Cubs a commanding 9-0 lead over the Padres. It was the fourth home run San Diego pitching has allowed to Swanson in the past two games.

The lone bright spot for the Padres came in the top of the fifth inning when Sung-Mun Song hit his first MLB home run. San Diego added a second run in the inning on back-to-back doubles by Manny Machado and Ty France that cut the deficit to 9-2. That deficit, like Buehler’s success in the first inning, was short-lived. Kyle Hart came into pitch in the fifth inning and allowed a solo home run and then a three-run home run that extended the Chicago lead to 13-2 over San Diego. Hart was still on the mound in the bottom of the sixth inning when Michael Conforto connected on a two-run home run to make the score, 15-2.

The Padres added a meaningless run in the top of the eighth inning when Miguel Andujar singled through the right side of the infield to score Samad Tayor from third base. That capped the scoring for San Diego, but Chicago added another eight runs in the bottom of the eighth inning off position player pitcher Rodolfo Duran. Four of those runs came on a grand slam by Swanson, his third home run of the game, and the final run for the Cubs came on a solo home run from Busch, which brought the score to 23-3. It was a fitting end to an embarrassing game that capped a miserable series in Chicago.

San Diego heads to Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium today at 7:10 p.m.

Padres News:

• Ethan Salas and Kash Mayfield were selected to the All-Star Futures Game. Cheri Bell of Gaslamp Ball covers that and all the news from around the San Diego minor league system.

• There is still no definitive answer on how the Padres will approach the trade deadline but Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune says prospect catcher Ethan Salas should not be discussed.

Baseball News:

• Junior Caminero added another home run to his streak and helped the Tampa Bay Rays beat the Kansas City Royals, 4-0.

• The Philadelphia Phillies scored eight runs against Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes and earned a 10-6 win.

• Mickey Moniak finished a single shy of the cycle and helped the Colorado Rockies beat the Miami Marlins.

• The San Francisco Giants lost to the Arizona Diamondbacks, 8-2 but they also lost third baseman Matt Chapman who is headed for the IL.

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More baseball across the Majors means more value in my same-game parlay predictions.

Jacob Misiorowski will dominate once again this afternoon, while Davis Martin is also in line for another quality showing. Read more in my MLB picks for Thursday, July 2. 

Today's best MLB SGP picks

Game	SGP Odds
CIN vs  MIL	+264
CHW vs CLE	+700
DET vs  TEX	+335

Reds at Brewers SGP: Another Misiorowski Gem

Jacob Misiorowski takes the hill today for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he continues to dominate. The right-hander owns a 1.74 xERA across his last four outings, giving up just 0.32 HR/9 during that span.

Misiorowski has consistently limited loud contact with his elite fastball-slider combination, making this a difficult matchup for a Cincinnati Reds lineup that has struggled to square up pitching recently. 

He's also hit the Under in hits allowed in two of his previous three outings, and Misiorowski comes up against a struggling Reds offense that has an xBA of .229 over the last week. 

The Brewers' .208 ISO over their last six games is a reason to believe they can score some runs off Chase Burns, who is home run-prone lately. Cincinnati's bullpen also sports an 8.14 FIP over its last 19 2/3 innings of work. 

• Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Brewers,TV, Reds.TV

See full analysis of this game in our Reds vs. Brewers predictions.

White Sox at Guardians SGP: Martin deals

Chicago White Sox rookie Jacob Gonzalez is hitting .409 over his last six contests with an impressive 50% hard-hit rate. He's posted four multi-hit games in his last seven as well, and Gonzalez just smacked five hits in a three-game set with the Baltimore Orioles. He'll face Slade Cecconi tonight, who has allowed a 39.5% hard-hit rate across the last month. 

White Sox ace Davis Martin owns a stellar 2.51 xERA across his previous two appearances, limiting opponents to a 33.3% hard-hit rate. The Cleveland Guardians are ice cold, with just 78 wRC+ in their last six games. This is a clear opportunity for Martin to toss another gem.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CSN, Guardians.TV

Tigers at Rangers SGP: Eovaldi racks up the Ks

Nathan Eovaldi has been a strikeout machine this season for the Texas Rangers, racking up 101 Ks in 100 1/3 innings of work. He's struck out nine hitters in back-to-back outings, and he's averaging 9.06 K/9 at home. The Detroit Tigers have averaged nine punchouts per game across their last three. 

Kerry Carpenter has recorded a hit in six straight contests, and he's batting .320 over his last seven games with an impressive 52.4% hard-hit rate. Justin Foscue is also swinging it well, finishing with five hits across his previous four games. He's whacked lefties this season with a .357 average, and he'll face Framber Valdez tonight. It's a favorable matchup for Foscue. 

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: DSN, RSN

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The Cincinnati Reds visit the Milwaukee Brewers this afternoon, with a true pitcher's duel on the mound between Chase Burns and Jacob Misiorowski. 

While both arms have been showing well lately, my Reds vs. Brewers predictions are eyeing Misiorowski to outduel Burns. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Thursday, July 2. 

Who will win Reds vs Brewers today: Brewers -1.5 (+119)

Cincinnati Reds ace Chase Burns has pitched better than his recent results suggest, posting a 2.98 xERA over his last two starts despite a 4.91 ERA.

However, he's still allowed 1.64 home runs per nine innings during that span, and the Milwaukee Brewers' recent power surge makes this a tough matchup. They've posted a .208 ISO over their last seven games. 

As for Jacob Misiorowski, he continues to shove.

The righty owns a mind-boggling 1.82 FIP over the last month, giving up just 0.32 HR/9 and holding opponents to a mere 1.8% barrel rate. The Brewers have frequently backed Misiorowski with plenty of offense this season.

I don't expect Burns to get lit up, but there's an opportunity for the Brewers to muster up some offense against him and a dreadful Reds bullpen, while Misiorowski is in line for another gem. 

I'll play this pick up to -110. 

COVERS INTEL: The Reds' offense has a poor 86 wRC+ over the last week. 

Reds vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Over 6.5 (-112)

I wouldn't usually be looking at the Over with these two on the hill, but a 6.5 total is incredibly low.

It's also important to note that Cincinnati's bullpen has an FIP over 8.00 across the last week while allowing 2.75 HR/9. Even if Burns holds his own, this profiles to be a game where the Brew Crew's power does damage. 

The Brewers' relief corps has been better, compiling a 4.22 FIP across the last week. But Milwaukee's ability to score runs means Cincinnati won't be required to score much to help cash the Over here, and the Brewers' pen hasn't been completely dominant. 

I'll play this pick up to -130. 

Reds vs Brewers weather

Conditions at American Family Field should provide a slight boost to offense this afternoon. Temperatures are expected to sit around 91-92°F for much of the game, with steady 13-14 mph winds and only a small chance of rain. The warm air could help well-hit balls carry a bit farther, creating a mildly hitter-friendly environment, though the starting pitching will still be the biggest factor in determining the outcome.

Reds vs Brewers odds

• Moneyline: Reds +186 | Brewers -194
• Run line: Reds +1.5 (-133) | Brewers -1.5 (+127)
• Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-108) | Under 6.5 (+104)

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The Brewers have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+15.40 Units / 27% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Brewers.

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For the second straight year, the Brewers will have one of baseball’s premier prospects on the Futures Game stage. This time, he’ll have company.

Baseball’s consensus top prospect, shortstop Jesús Made, will represent the Brewers for the second straight year at the annual prospect showcase. Made has backed up the hype this season, slashing .289/.359/.448 (.807 OPS) with seven home runs and 25 total extra-base hits while helping lead the Double-A Biloxi Shuckers to the first-half Southern League title. MLB Pipeline gives Made 60-grade hit, power, and arm tools, making him one of the most well-rounded prospects in baseball.

Joining Made in Philadelphia will be Luis Peña, the Brewers’ No. 2 prospect and MLB Pipeline’s No. 18 overall prospect. Peña has missed a lot of time this year — he was hospitalized after overheating in the dugout during a game with the High-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers in April, then missed another two and a half weeks following a separate health scare.

When he’s played, Peña has been as electric as expected, slashing .318/.431/.432 (.863 OPS) through 88 at-bats. The 19-year-old infielder carries a 60 future value from MLB Pipeline, including an impressive 70-grade speed tool, and he posted an .844 OPS in Single-A before earning a promotion to High-A earlier this season. If Peña can stay healthy, he has just as much upside as Made.

Brewers fans hoping to catch Made and Peña on the national stage can tune into the All-Star Futures Game on Sunday, July 12. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 11:00 a.m. CT, airing exclusively on NBC.

If you are heading down to the Phillies game this afternoon, you are braver than most.

The weather forecast is something akin to the surface of the sun, as the temperature is expected to reach into the triple digits with feels like temperatures surpassing 110 degrees. For all of you brave souls acknowledging that and still making the trek to watch an Alan Rangel start, please be careful and remember that you are allowed to bring a sealed bottle of water into Citizens Bank Park.

Anyway, extreme heat is something you just have to deal with sometimes as a baseball fan. A sport that is primarily played in summer is bound to have days where it is absolutely miserable to sit outside at a game. And yet, thousands of us still go take in a ballgame, even if the seats we’re sitting in are melting our skin.

Personally, I can think of two examples of when I went to a ballgame in ridiculous heat. The first is the 2008 ten-year reunion game that took place in 2018. The Phillies beat the Marlins 5-3 on the back of a two-run homer from Asdrubal Cabrera in the eighth inning. Tommy Hunter got the save in the ninth inning. It was the first time I ever experienced the concessions stands giving out free cups of water. My cousin and I also grabbed ice from the concession stands and stuck them under our hats in an attempt to stay cool. I got some real bad sunburn on my kneecaps, as I did not realize that sometimes when you sit down, your shorts don’t quite cover the same length that they did when you put sunscreen on as you were standing. We also pulled our own doubleheader that day, as we went to the Eagles open practice that night, being that it was the first time they took the field after Super Bowl 52. Cory Clement was the first player on the field to thunderous applause. There I remember standing in line for a bottle of water and realizing if the line didn’t move faster, I would probably pass out. Good times.

I can’t remember the other example as clearly, but I’m pretty sure it involved an extra-innings walk-off hit from Odubel Herrera where I was just happy that the game was over, as I’m sure many were in an era where a walk-off hit from Odubel Herrera was a highlight.

So, what’s the hottest baseball game you’re ever been too? Is there anyone heading to the game this afternoon?

A new month brings a new top prospects list, and with a handful of top prospects on the shelf, it wasn’t a particularly exciting month in the Twins system, but it also put more focus on some of the under-the-radar prospects who have begun to look like MLB-caliber talents. We saw a bunch of big promotions including SS Marek Houston heading to Double-A as well as Kyler Fedko and Marco Raya making their major league debuts! You can find my June rankings here if you’d like to compare. Once again, but hopefully not too many more times, we begin the list with the one and only…

1. OF Walker Jenkins (AAA)

Now back with the Saints after missing over a month with a shoulder sprain, Walker Jenkins’ long-awaited MLB debut seems to be approaching, which I recently wrote about here. He’s a franchise cornerstone who projects to be a star player for the Twins for years to come.

It’s pretty hard to find a weakness in his game. Offensively, he is an extremely mature hitter at just 21 years old. Excellent patience and spin recognition have led to high walk rates at every level. His hit tool is borderline plus, consistently running high contact rates while batting over .280 in every season of his pro career. His raw power is already above average and has potential for further growth. His line drive swing may never produce eye-popping home run numbers, but he can hit 15-20 while spraying doubles all over the field and getting on base at a high rate.

Defensively, he has a plus arm with solid range. Has a chance to stick in center, but projects very well in a corner. Not an aggressive base-stealer, but a good runner that can provide value with his legs. Just a complete player who I cannot wait to see in a Twins uniform.

2. OF Emmanuel Rodriguez (AAA)

There’s not much left to say about Emmanuel Rodriguez at this point. When he’s healthy, he’s a power-hitting phenom, possessing some of the best raw power in the world with a max EV of 118.3 mph. His contact skills leave some room for concern, but his excellent swing decisions have helped him walk over 20% of the time in his minor league career. He’s an above-average runner who plays a good center field, but may end up in a corner with the Twins.

He’s slashing .247/.417/.506 for a 138 wRC+ with 6 homers in 25 games with the Saints this season. The recovery timeline from his thumb surgery in May is unknown, but Rodriguez is ready for a new challenge and should be in the big leagues soon after returning from injury.

3. SS Kaelen Culpepper (AAA)

Kaelen Culpepper’s bat has been highly impressive ever since he was drafted in the first round in 2024. He has a beautiful swing that holds a good mix of borderline plus contact skills and solid functional power. The big development in 2026 has been a new approach. Culpepper has historically been a free swinger that runs high chase rates, but this season he has cut back his swing rates significantly. He now has a walk rate over 12% in Triple-A this season, up from his 9.7% clip last year.

He’s a good runner who tallied 25 stolen bags in 2025 and has remained aggressive and successful this season. Defensively, he doesn’t have the elite twitchy actions of a gold glove shortstop, but he’s a good athlete with a good arm who has been a reliable defender this year. Unless Ryan Kreidler can continue his breakout, Culpepper is likely the Twins best option at shortstop. Either way, he projects as a valuable defender anywhere in the infield.

4. C Eduardo Tait (A+)

It was a great month of June for the Twins’ top catching prospect as he continued to pile up homers but also started running into more contact. Tait batted .250 on the month with a 18.8% strikeout rate. His monstrous power combined with an average hit tool could make him one of the top offensive catchers in MLB in just a couple of years. His chase-heavy approach remains a major concern, but the bat is talented enough to overcome it.

Defensively, his plus arm is already a major asset behind the dish while the technical side of the position continues to develop. Tait has a good chance to develop into a solid catcher. At just 19 years old, the Twins have an exceptionally talented hitter with superstar potential.

5. RHP Charlee Soto (A+)

Soto returned briefly from injury before suffering a setback on his forearm injury, but the 20-year-old’s stuff remains incredibly exciting. He’s built like a linebacker and is a great athlete on the mound. The fastball is sitting upper 90s with sinking action, and he complements it with some excellent secondaries. He has a natural changeup feel and gets 17+ inches of run on the pitch in the 88-91 range. His slider sits in the upper 80s with sharp break. Both pitches grade out as plus big league pitches while the fastball has overwhelming velocity and generates strong ground ball rates.

Injuries remain a concern, but he has the build to support high velocity. Soto can fill up the strike zone while still racking up whiffs and ground contact, a profile that has frontline starter potential.

6. LHP Kendry Rojas (MLB)

At 23 years old, Kendry Rojas has lacked consistency this year, but his stuff and intriguing potential have been on full display. The 6’2” lefty has shown off a good blend of stuff and command this year after adding a tick to his fastball. 

His fastball is firm, sitting in the 95-97 range, playing up with good extension and some ride at the top of the zone. We have also seen encouraging development with the slider this year. Rojas is getting more two-plane movement on the pitch while throwing it harder in the upper 80s. It is a borderline plus pitch now, generating elite whiff rates and soft contact. His changeup also sits in the upper 80s and plays off the fastball extremely well.

Rojas has been nibbling at the zone in his first handful of innings at the major league level this season, but his pitches have generally been located in the right areas. Once he gains the confidence to fire the ball in the zone, Rojas has the makings of a mid-rotation starter or high leverage bullpen arm.

7. SS Marek Houston (AA)

Now about one year removed from his draft day, Marek Houston’s path through the minor leagues has looked almost identical to that of Kaelen Culpepper so far. Now in Double-A, Houston’s bat is getting a tougher test than he’s ever seen before.

He caught fire in late May, earning the promotion to Wichita on June 22nd. In his last 16 games with the Kernels, he batted .450 with a 22.2% walk rate and 9.9% strikeout rate. He is a very skilled hitter, possessing an extremely patient approach with above average contact skills. While the lack of power limits his offensive ceiling, I’m getting strong Austin Martin vibes from his bat.

On the defensive side, Houston will almost certainly stick at shortstop. He has spectacular range and fluidity for someone who is 6’3”. A sound, yet flashy defender with a good arm. Also a plus runner who is racking up stolen bags this year. He has a chance to transform a Twins infield that desperately needs some impactful defenders as early as next season.

8. RHP Riley Quick (A+)

In his first year as a pro, Riley Quick has displayed electric stuff with elite strikeout rates in the lower levels of the minor leagues. Walks have caused him to get into some trouble in High-A, but his zone and strike metrics suggest that more success is coming.

He leads with a mid 90s sinker that generates lots of ground contact. His slider is pushing 2800 RPMs and gets sharp two-plane movement in the mid 80s, while hit cutter in the low 90s complements the sinker well. Quick also has a changeup with elite depth in the upper 80s, projecting as an excellent putaway pitch against lefties.

Riley Quick has a diverse arsenal with four distinct shapes and velocities. The sinker and cutter will fill up the zone while the slider and changeup have the makings of plus putaway pitches. It’s an exciting starter profile if he can throw enough strikes.

9. RHP Andrew Morris (MLB)

Just a couple innings shy of the 40 mark, Andrew Morris cracks the top 10 in what will be his final month as a prospect. After 62 starts across 3+ years in the minors, he has shifted nicely into the Twins bullpen this year. With a 3.12 xERA and 2.89 FIP, the underlying numbers view Morris as a great back-end arm.

His fastball is firm in the 95-98 range, occasionally flashing some 99s with a bit of ride. The heater generates strikes and he has a pair of distinct breaking balls, a cutter and a sweeper, that have plus potential as putaway pitches. One of the biggest developments with Morris this year is him altering his sweeper, taking some velo off and letting it fly away from righties in the low 80s. He’s still gaining a feel for command with the pitch, but it grades out as an absolutely elite offering. The upper 80s changeup is his preferred secondary against lefties and is also a quality pitch, getting some nice fade with strong velo separation.

Andrew Morris has already established himself as a rock in the Twins bullpen for years to come. Still, if he can hone in the command on his sweeper and push his fastball velo closer to triple digits, we could be looking at a truly elite closer blossoming in Minnesota.

10. LHP Dasan Hill (A+)

It continues to be a frustrating season for 20-year-old Dasan Hill, who is showing off electric stuff with some of the best strikeout numbers in the system but continues to struggle with control. The big lefty has a 6.14 ERA in 36.2 innings, striking out a whopping 61 batters but also walking 33.

Hill’s fastball gets good armside run and has pushed into the upper 90s this year. His slider is a whiff machine, getting excellent two-plane movement in the low-to-mid 80s. He also has confidence in his mid 80s changeup that doesn’t get particularly impressive movement, but works off the fastball very well. Also mixes in a loopy curveball around 80. It is a really fun repertoire from the left side with high-end stuff, but his complete lack of command is a major area of concern. He looks destined for a high-leverage bullpen role, where the fastball has the potential to work into triple digits with a couple of intriguing secondaries.

11. RHP Adrian Bohorquez (A+)

A forearm strain cost Adrian Bohorquez most of the first half of the season, but he is back in Cedar Rapids now and his stuff is looking as good as ever. The fastball is sitting 96-99 with some carry, overwhelming hitters at the top of the zone. The upper 80s slider and curveball around 80 are plus offerings with sharp break and flashy spin rates, generating elite whiff rates in the lower levels. He also has a power changeup in the low 90s with developing shape, but at least adds another element to get hitters off the fastball. Freshly 21 years old with exciting stuff, Bohorquez is one of the highest upside pitchers in the system and has a chance to make some real noise in the second half of the season.

12. OF Hendry Mendez (AAA)

It appears that a nagging injury may have sapped his power in early June and eventually put him on the shelf for a couple weeks, but Hendry Mendez is back in action now and could realistically get the call-up at any moment now. His patient approach limits chase and stimulates high walk rates. His swing is flat and violent from the left side, limiting his game power but maximizing contact. He’s a below average athlete and has limited defensive value as a LF/DH. Still, he possesses an interesting offensive profile that could push the .300 AVG/.400 OBP marks.

13. OF Yasser Mercedes (A+)

Outside of a 4-hit game on June 13th, the month was one big slump for Yasser Mercedes after a hot start to the year. Patience and high walk rates in the spring have given way to extreme chase and more strikeouts in June. He becomes Rule 5 eligible in December and his production remains largely unconvincing. Still, I can’t stop believing in Mercedes, who holds elite raw power and plus speed while showing flashes of good swing decisions and a playable hit tool. He has all the physical tools at just 21 years old, just waiting for him to put it all together.

14. RHP Marco Raya (MLB)

Marco Raya surrendered a 2-run homer and a couple of walks in his long-awaited MLB debut, but he was one of Triple-A’s best pitchers from early May until the call-up and will hopefully gain some good major league experience over the next few months. His mid 90s fastball isn’t much of a whiff pitch due to poor shape, but Raya has found success with the pitch, using it to get ahead early in counts. His sweeper and curveball are plus whiff pitches with vastly differing shapes in the upper 80s, but have been barreled often in the zone. A power changeup in the low 90s has been an effective tertiary pitch against lefties. I don’t know what is in the cards for Marco Raya’s future, but he has the stuff to be an electric back-end reliever if he can execute his pitches as well as we saw from him with the Saints in May and June.

15. RHP Ryan Gallagher (AAA)

The transition to Triple-A continues to be tough on Ryan Gallagher, but I’m still intrigued by the profile as one of the few true starter-type arms in the upper levels of the Twins system. He pounded the strike zone in High-A and Double-A, but has elevated his walk rate to 13% in Triple-A. With a low 90s fastball, a slow changeup around 80, and a trio of solid breaking balls, it’s a diverse repertoire that has generated good whiff rates, but barrels and walks have been major problems. We’re banking on enhanced execution and fastball improvements to give Gallagher a real chance to stick in a major league rotation where he can eat innings as a quality back-end arm. In year two as a pro, he is firmly ahead of schedule, but it’s unclear how much room is left for him to grow.

16. 3B/OF Brandon Winokur (A+)

It has been a frustrating year for Brandon Winokur, who has plus raw power and runs well at 21 years old, but has struggled to make contact and hasn’t been able to convert his power into convincing production. He limits chase while being aggressive in the strike zone, but just hasn’t been able to connect with the ball consistently. I remain fairly high on Winokur because his impressive range and plus arm at 6’5” give him a good chance to be a valuable defender, and he has looked increasingly comfortable at 3B and CF. Even if he’s a low average hitter who produced 25 homers a season, his value on defense could make that profile flourish.

17. RHP John Klein (MLB)

All too often, Triple-A brings young pitchers to a brutal reality. For John Klein, his exciting 2025 breakout in Double-A has turned into a rough start to his tenure in St. Paul. The Twins haven’t made anything easy for him this year, as a hybrid long-relief role and two brief MLB call-ups haven’t allowed Klein to develop any consistency. Poor shape has limited the effectiveness of Klein’s mid 90s fastball. His changeup sits mid 80s with excellent depth, working as his second pitch. He mixes in a cutter, curveball, and sweeper, all grading out average. If the fastball can play up in short relief, Klein projects nicely as a strike-throwing flamethrower with a diverse group of secondaries.

18. OF/1B Gabriel Gonzalez (MLB)

The month of June gave us the version of Gabby Gonzalez that we saw last year. He slashed .333/.400/.533 while playing a mix of 1B, DH, and corner outfield. His contact skills looked elite, posting a zone contact rate north of 95%, but the extreme aggressiveness continues to lead to lots of chase and an average strikeout rate. His raw power is average but has limited function due to high ground ball rates. It’s a spray and pray offensive profile, much like Brooks Lee and Jose Miranda. He’s a below-average athlete who is a fringy defense in the corner outfield and first base. He is crushing lefties this year, and of nothing else, he could fit into a short-side platoon role and provide some offense off the bench.

19. RHP James Ellwanger (A)

June was a brutal month for the Twins’ 3rd round pick, who didn’t pitch at all, but was diagnosed with a torn UCL and underwent Tommy John surgery with an internal brace. Now out for the rest of the season and likely a portion of the 2027 season, Ellwanger will return to action as a 23-year-old with just 11 innings of Single-A action under his belt. He was already a likely bullpen candidate and will now almost surely be pushed into that role. Still, the upside is immense for Ellwanger. Leads with a mid 90s fastball and has a pair of impressive offspeed pitches in a low 80s curveball and a newly added low 90s power changeup.

20. C/1B Enrique Jimenez (A+)

Recently called up to High-A at age 20, Enrique Jimenez has a well-rounded skillset at the catcher position and has been highly productive at the plate since the Twins acquired him at last year’s deadline. He’s a short and stocky catcher with average raw power and a lofty swing that has some whiff, but has produced some impressive power production. Also a very patient hitter who racks up walks, Jimenez doesn’t have an elite ceiling but is a well-rounded hitter currently trending up. Defensively, he has promising receiving and an average arm. Projects nicely as a backup with potential to produce on both sides of the ball.

21. C/OF Khadim Diaw (AA)

After a scorching hot first half of June, Khadim Diaw got the call to Double-A, where his intriguing utility profile will get its toughest challenge yet. He has limited power, but with borderline plus contact skills and a mature approach, there is plenty of reason to believe Diaw can be a major league hitter. Defensively, he has split time between catcher and center field. He is a good athlete with a solid arm, possessing the potential to be a valuable defender behind the dish and across the outfield. While he lacks an elite ceiling on either side of the ball, Diaw covering multiple defensive spots in a bench role while providing some production with his bat would certainly make him worthy of a roster spot.

22. OF Jhomnardo Reyes (FCL)

Jhomnardo Reyes possesses easy plus power potential, running exit velocities over 110 mph at just 18 years old. Meanwhile his hit tool and plate discipline have looked much improved in his second year as a pro. He is a good athlete with a strong arm. Should fit nicely as a corner outfielder when his body fully matures. In terms of physical ability, this is one of the most impressive players in the Twins system, and the staggering improvements that we have already seen as a baseball player make him an incredibly exciting projection.

23. SS/3B Quentin Young (A)

Quentin Young continues to post monstrous strikeout and whiff numbers, and the swing decisions have deteriorated in June. Still, Young is barreling up baseballs more often than any other player in the Florida State League at just 19 years old and has elite power potential. He’s a raw defender splitting time between shortstop and third base, but has the physical tools to develop nicely as a third baseman. Who knows where his career will go, but for now I’m just going to enjoy the homeruns and flashy exit velocities.

24. OF Kala’i Rosario (AAA)

After an even 250 games in Double-A, Kala’i Rosario finally got the callup to Triple-A towards the end of June. While he runs high whiff and strikeout rates, a patient approach and plus power have allowed him to overcome the lack of a hit tool so far. Triple-A will be a big challenge, but with some of the best raw power in the system and a feel for pulling fly balls, there is plenty of hope for Rosario. He is a fringy corner outfielder with a good arm, but he has worked to improve his speed, stealing 32 bags last year and continuing to produce on the bases in 2026. There is always potential for value in a slugging corner outfielder.

25. OF Eduardo Beltre (A)

It is a lost season for Eduardo Beltre, who suffered a season-ending knee injury after just 16 games at Single-A. Still, there is a lot to be excited about as the 19-year-old has posted a max EV just shy of 110 while contact and swing decisions have been good enough to let the power play. Beltre is a solid athlete with a good arm and projects well as a corner outfielder.

26. RHP Alejandro Hidalgo (AAA)

Alejandro Hidalgo has had a major breakout in his first year working as a true reliever. At 23 years old, the righty has posted huge strikeout numbers albeit struggling with walks and homers. His mid 90s fastball has good specs, but has been crushed in Triple-A this summer. His changeup and cutter are both quality big league pitches and have been largely untouchable this year. Hidalgo is Rule 5 eligible this offseason, so it may be beneficial to give him a chance down the stretch given the current state of this bullpen. He is still so young with exciting bullpen potential if he can find success with the fastball.

27. SS/2B Kyle DeBarge (AA)

Kyle DeBarge has struggled to adjust to Double-A, but remains an intriguing utility infielder. DeBarge has plus speed and great defensive actions, playing excellent middle-infield defense and providing value on the bases. He has limited raw power and has struggled to make contact this year, but is a mature hitter that limits chase. With significant defensive value, the bat just needs to be playable for DeBarge to find himself on a major league roster.

28. RHP C.J. Culpepper (AAA)

C.J. Culpepper has been the most reliable bullpen arm for the Saints this year and has a good chance to join the Twins bullpen at some point this summer. His cutterish fastball and sinker combo in the mid 90s generates tons of soft ground contact while his slider and sweeper grade out as solid putaway pitches. With his lower arm slot, Culpepper misses barrels and keeps the ball out of the air with east-west movement. He reminds me of Kody Funderburk in this way, and maybe there is more whiff in the tank if he can add a tick or two of velocity.

29. 1B/3B Billy Amick (AA)

Billy Amick has fully leaned into the true outcome approach this year, posting extreme fly ball rates and leading all Twins minor-leaguers in homers while running a strikeout rate over 30%. He has plus power potential and has shown off excellent swing decisions throughout his time as a pro, but the hit tool will always be a major concern. Amick is developing nicely as a corner infielder and while he likely fits better at first base, he can be passable at the hot corner.

30. UTIL Ben Ross (AAA)

Much of Ben Ross’ value comes on defense, where he is a true utility player that has the athleticism and actions to play across the infield and outfield at a high level. He is also hitting the ball well in Triple-A, where his excellent swing decisions and feel for pulling fly balls has led to excellent power production despite well below-average raw power. The hit tool is fringy, but if he can be a playable hitter, Ross is an excellent profile to have on the bench.

31. RHP Jose Olivares (AA)

June might have been the worst month yet in a rough year for Jose Olivares, who begins July with a 7.41 ERA with more walks than strikeouts. Still, he has shown plenty of promise as a 23-year-old with a live arm. He has elite fastball characteristics in the mid 90s with a sharp cutter in the upper 80s and a changeup that gets nice two-plane fade. Much of the struggles have been due to completely erratic command. Olivares moved to the Wichita bullpen in mid June, and if he can tighten up his command in this new role, his fastball gives him lights-out potential in the bullpen.

32. 2B/OF Bruin Agbayani (A)

Since being drafted out of high school in the 6th round last year Bruin Agbayani has only played 15 games in the Twins’ system due to a couple of injuries, but he has already shown off intriguing tools at 19 years old. His contact skills are looking impressive, posting zone contact rates over 90%. He has an extremely patient approach, and has an incredible 16 walks to 6 strikeouts so far in Single-A. He has shown very little pop, but at 6’2”, there is reason to believe he could grow into some playable power. He’s an above-average runner with solid actions defensively, but likely ends up at second base or left field due to his below average arm. There is still a lot to learn about Agbayani, but phase one is to finally get him on the field for an extended period of time.

33. RHP Matt Barr (FCL)

Matt Barr spent the month of June starting games in the FCL, where he’s been slow to hit his stride as he recovers from a broken arm. At just 20 years old, the Twins 5th round pick out of JuCo gets elite spin on his two breaking balls and runs a developing fastball up to 97 mph. He’s 6’6” with a thin frame. Very much a development project at this point, but one with exciting potential.

34. OF Teilon Serrano (FCL)

Teilon Serrano just turned 18 in May and is combining enticing physical tools with excellent production in rookie ball. He has plus power potential, running a max exit velocity over 109 mph. There are some hit tool concerns, but he has a very mature and patient approach, drawing a ridiculous walk rate near 30% with more walks than strikeouts. He is a good runner who has split time between all three outfield positions. There is a long way to go, but the potential is through the roof and Serrano is already producing at a very young age.

35. INF/OF Luis Fragoza (A)

June was another excellent month for 19-year-old Luis Fragoza, who continues to show off plus power potential with a 110 mph max EV and 6 homers in June. His big swing comes with questionable swing decisions and fringy contact skills, but there is plenty of potential with the bat. He is a solid athlete who is playing a mix of corner infield and outfield, showing potential to at least be a passable defender at multiple positions. Lots of potential, a few concerns, and lots of production from Fragoza in his first taste of Single-A.

36. RHP Ruddy Gomez (AA)

It has been a wild ride to Wichita for right-hander Ruddy Gomez (pronounced like Rudy). He began his collegiate career at DII Saint Leo, where he spent two years before transferring to Hillsborough Community College in 2021. He broke out at HCC, posting a 3.67 ERA with 77 strikeouts in 61.1 innings and earning an offer from Central Florida. He spent his last two years at UCF where after a nice 2022 season out of the bullpen, he earned a spot in the Knights rotation for his 5th and final college season. Gomez finished with a 5.25 ERA in 15 starts, posting good strikeout numbers and leading a solid UCF team in innings.

When the MLB didn’t call in the summer of 2023, he turned to indy ball. He spent 2024 in the Frontier League, posting a 4.24 ERA in 70 innings of work. Finally in April 2025, the Minnesota Twins were looking for some pitching depth in the lower levels and decided to give Ruddy a chance. Well… something clicked. Gomez started the season in rookie ball and finished it in High-A. He ended with a 1.58 ERA with 57 strikeouts in 45.1 innings, a monumental season that turned an indy baller into a legitimate MLB prospect.

At age 26, he began this season in Double-A. While an injury cost him two months, Gomez is back in action in Wichita and looking better than ever. His fastball sits in the 92-95 range with poor characteristics, but he morphs it into a sinker and locates it well to steal strikes and generate some ground contact. The bulk of his success comes from the mid 80s slider that has devastating two-plane break. Excellent shape paired with good command have led to elite whiff and chase rates on the slider.

Gomez is looking like a solid major league bullpen arm, and fastball improvements could push the ceiling even higher. The fact that Ruddy Gomez has made it this far is an incredible story, but the story is truly just beginning.

37. RHP Reed Moring (A)

Reed Moring was on the shelf for most of June, but has worked his way back and looks good going into July. Of all the 2025 draftees pitching in Fort Myers right now, Reed Moring is the one that intrigues me the most. Moring never really pitched in length at UC-Santa Barbara, but is working 3-5 inning stints at Single-A now and is showing off a deep arsenal of quality pitches. He leads with a low 90s fastball with good carry. His mid 80s slider is sharp and has posted solid whiff rates despite being thrown in the zone a lot. Mid 80s changeup gets excellent depth and plays off the fastball very well. Mixes in a curveball and a cutter. Moring is struggling to find the balance between too many strikes and not enough strikes right now, but he’s 21 with promising stuff. If the fastball can sneak up into the mid 90s, then we’re really looking at a mid-rotation arsenal.

38. OF Kyler Fedko (MLB)

After mashing for the first couple months of the season in Triple-A, Kyler Fedko got the call to the majors and has been filling a bench role for the Twins. The story with Fedko is playable power. He doesn’t put up flashy exit velocities, but is an aggressive swinger with a great feel for pulling fly balls, allowing him to maximize his power output. The hit tool is fringy and he’s an average athlete who can play solid defense across the outfield. If the power plays at the major league level, Fedko can be a nice platoon outfielder, hitting lefties while providing some outfield versatility.

39. RHP Santiago Castellanos (FCL)

Santiago Castellanos is a young rookie-baller who is out for the season after just a couple appearances in the FCL in June. He carved up the DSL at just 16 years old last year, posting a 2.79 ERA and 29.8% strikeout rate in 29.0 innings. He leads with a low 90s fastball with good carry and some armside run. He has the makings of some good breaking balls, featuring a sweeper in the upper 70s and a harder slider in the mid 80s. Also already has a good feel for his mid 80s changeup. Albeit undersized at 5’10”, a good feel for command and a strong four-pitch mix are making 17-year-old Castellanos an intriguing starting pitching prospect.

40. C Miguel Caraballo (FCL)

For the last spot on the list, I was debating between the young and unproven Miguel Caraballo vs a couple of older relief pitching prospects, but settled on the upside pick. Coming over from San Francisco in a trade this offseason, Caraballo is yet to turn 18 but is a switch-hitter producing in the FCL with impressive power. He’s an athletic catcher, possessing intriguing potential behind the dish, although he could likely fit into the outfield if he doesn’t work out at catcher. There are hit tool concerns, but the raw power mixed with potential for defensive value is exciting, and he is already producing at a very young age.

Almost no matter how you slice it, the Detroit Tigers have been pretty bad this year. Their overall record of 37-49 has them 12th in the American League, ahead of only the Kansas City Royals and LA Angels, facing down a likely selling role at the Trade Deadline. But they’re only 6 games behind the Seattle Mariners for the final AL Wild Card slot, which gives a faint glimmer of hope.

In a typical year, that third Wild Card team would post about an 86- to 88-win season. The lowest it has been is the 83-win Cincinnati Reds from 2025. Given the overall weakness in the AL field this year, that lower end seems a reasonable target, which means chasing down something like an 85-win season should keep the Tigers thoroughly in the mix. That would be a .631 win rate for the final 76 games of the season, which is high but hardly impossible.

The big question: how do they get there?

Instead of answering this seriously – trade for a new bullpen, call up every Max in AAA, and reduce playing time for Matt Vierling, Jahmai Jones, and most of their relievers as much as possible, for a start – I decided to have a little fun with the extreme nature of Detroit’s season. Meaning I looked at all their ridiculous splits throughout a ridiculous season and found what situations favor Detroit the most. If they’re going to chase down the Mariners, or even more improbably the Guardians, they’ll have to play to their win conditions.

All stats are taken prior to the victory over the Yankees on July 1, 2026.

Environmental Factors

What time the Tigers play is, unfortunately, out of their control. However, if it were in their power, the Tigers should only play day games. The earlier the start time, the better. With the sun at their backs, the Tigers are a competitive 17-16. At night, they’ve sleepwalked their way to a 20-33 record. That won’t do the trick.

Where Detroit plays is also predetermined, and so is the result, seemingly. In the friendly confines of Comerica Park – not the Friendly Confines themselves, where Detroit has yet to visit – the Tigers are a respectable 23-21. When they pack their bags and travel, though, they’re a woeful 14-28. Ouch.

Opponent’s Factors

When it comes to opponents, the Tigers have a few clear preferences. Whether it’s a bugaboo about the Believeland Guardians or an overall talent issue, the Tigers are a brutal 9-16 against the rest of the AL Central. If you’re looking for a reason the team is at the back of the Central pack, that’s as good a place to start. They’re a slightly better team when you look at the AL as a whole (26-36) or versus their National League foes (11-13). None of those light the world on fire, but they’re at least an improvement.

A weird one for you: the Tigers have been significantly better against good teams than bad ones. No, seriously, this doesn’t make any sense. How are the Tigers 23-21 when they play teams above .500, but 14-28 against everyone else? Do they just imitate whoever they face on any given day, rising to the occasion against the Yankees but floundering against the Twins and Angels? Utterly bizarre. Common sense says a playoff contender needs to take care of business against bad teams. Low-hanging fruit and all that.

There’s one final split here that might actually be meaningful. The starting pitcher the Tigers face seems to greatly impact their odds of winning a game. Shocking, I know. Against a lefty starter, the Tigers are a mere 10-17; versus a righty, they’re a way-less-bad 27-32. Can anyone here figure out why they struggle against left-handed starters? Anyone? I hate to pin it all on one guy, but we’re all thinking about the same guy, right?

Tiger’s Factors

OK, finally, the series of things Detroit can actually control. If Detroit’s going to take their season by the horns and claw their way back, this is a place to start.

For starters: keep Jake Rogers out of as many games as possible. The lineup is not deep enough to hide him at the bottom routinely, because hiding him at the bottom routinely means Outman, McKinstry, and Vierling can’t all hide at the bottom. They’ve got to keep Dillon Dingler healthy, but a 9-18 record with Rogers and a 28-31 record without him speaks volumes. Upgrade the backup catcher role next year if possible, and then Dingler can DH more and stay fresh throughout the season.

Another big one: get Gleyber Torres back in the lineup! He might not be their best hitter, but he sure seems to stabilize their lineup. A grind-it-out, depth-heavy lineup sure looks better when there’s another guy with a .400 OBP in it. Case in point: 23-20 with him, and 14-29 without him. Get healthy, Gleyber. We need you. Although Hao-Yu Lee is doing a really nice job in this second go-around on both sides of the ball. Pretty impressive step in development going on there seemingly.

This last one comes down largely to “play better, win more”, but the sheer volume of games is what I’d like to call attention to. In games in which the Tigers hit multiple home runs, they’re 15-7, a whopping .682 pace that clears the .631 win rate I threw out earlier. In all other games, they’re 22-42. What stands out here is not the conclusion drawn – hitting home runs and winning have a large correlation for a reason – but the fact they’ve only hit multiple home runs 22 times seems problematic to me. Good teams tend to hit home runs in bunches, and the Tigers really haven’t done that. They should probably work on that.

There you have it, folks. If the Tigers want to make the playoffs, they should be sure to face National League playoff contenders, at Comerica, during the day, against right-handed pitchers, and get Gleyber Torres into (and Jake Rogers out of) the lineup as much as possible. Oh, and hit a ton of home runs. And get a new high-leverage relief corps…Keider Montero may be the start of that process, at least for this season.

They’re also 8-5 on Sunday, so maybe shift as many games as possible to Sunday.

Simple enough, right?

If baseball fans plan on watching any of the 15 Major League Baseball games on July 5, they will have to find their way to one of NBCUniversal's television properties.

All 30 MLB teams that day will be in action, and their games will be broadcast on either NBC, Peacock, or NBCSN, the first time a media company has presented all 15 MLB games nationally in a single day.

Two of the games on "Star-Spangled Sunday" (New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, 12:30 pm ET, and San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, 7 pm ET) will be broadcast on NBC, with the other games on the schedule all streamed on Peacock, with three simulcast on NBCSN. Peacock will also have a multiview four-box presentation.

"There's no better way to enjoy some free time on Fourth of July weekend than with one of the great rivalries in MLB, the Padres and Dodgers. In 2024, the Padres were this close to knocking the Dodgers out in the Division Series," NBC lead play-by-play announcer Jason Benetti told USA TODAY Sports. 

Benetti will call that game with former pitchers and Cy Young winners Orel Hershiser, Jake Peavy and C.C. Sabathia.

More: Happy Bobby Bonilla Day! 'It’s bigger than my birthday' former Met says

In the closing innings of Sunday’s exhilarating and chaotic finale against the Yankees, a surreal series of events events unfolded that one way or another should come to define the rest of the Red Sox season.

It started in the top of the ninth inning when Wilyer Abreu launched this hideous throw to nowhere, directly leading to a blown save:

Then it continued in the top of the tenth with another Abreu mistake, leading to an additional pair of Yankee runs:

I can count on one hand the number of times I felt as bad for a player on a Major League Baseball player within a game as I did for Wilyer Abreu in that moment. Normally a wonderful defender, he made two back to back blunders that looked likely to cost his team the highlight sweep of the season. And of course, this all came against the far more important, and far more devastating backdrop of the back to back earthquakes that rocked his home country, leaving behind a disaster with thousands dead, and tens of thousands more still missing.

As he stood there in the outfield with his “All together for Venezuela” message written on his hat, no player ever needed a hug on a baseball field more than Abreu in that moment:

But then something remarkable happened. The Red Sox offense – This Red Sox offense! – rallied out of nowhere in the bottom of the tenth to to take the game and pick up their despondent teammate. In that moment, it was probably better than any solace a hug could have provided.

Here’s the whole rally because it’s also probably the best half inning of baseball Red Sox fans are going to see all season:

The bottom line is this: One way or another, that tenth inning should become emblematic of the rest of the Red Sox season. Ideally that would involve the Red Sox making a remarkable comeback in the second half to go further than the Yankees by the time the end of fall rolls around, but at the very least, it should be the start of the Red Sox as an organization and fanbase rallying around Venezuela for the rest of the year.

This Red Sox roster is loaded with Venezuelan players (Willson Contreras, Wilyer Abreu, Ranger Suarez, Andruw Monasterio, Carlos Narvaez), and most of them are key contributors to the few positive things going on with the club. With everything that’s happened, they are now the main characters in our 2026 Red Sox story. Regardless of what happens on the field, the long, arduous process of Venezuela’s recovery should be tied to this baseball team.

And even though it’s just a game and a team thousands of miles away from the disaster, baseball can have that power. One of the biggest threats to Venezuela going forward is to have this tragedy fall out of the news cycle in places that can help. The Red Sox shouldn’t let that happen, and I know the players from Venezuela won’t let that happen. That’s why it’s so encouraging to see not just guys like Willson Contreras and Wilyer Abreu out on Jersey Street before the games collecting disaster donations, but also folks like John Henry and Sonny Gray.

Recently, the Red Sox started a new celebration when they do something good with their bats, reaching their hands together above their head to emulate the missing Citgo Sign over left field. Appropriately, here’s highlights of Wilyer Abreu and Willson Contreras doing it last week:

This may sound crazy, but I actually think this is the perfect celebration and symbol for the 2026 Red Sox and Venezuela going forward. Not only is the Citgo Sign a legendary landmark in the heart of Boston itself, but the company has deep ties to Venezuela. Without going into details there (because at the end of the day they’re an oil company that’s obviously up to no good) there’s probably nothing else that so clearly unites Boston and Venezuela as this oddly comforting red triangle, and the deep love for baseball it represents.

After all, the roots of Venezuela’s remarkable baseball history tie back to U.S. oil interests entering the country more than a century ago, and teaching locals the game. Now, all these years later, Venezuela’s returned the favor in a love letter back to us, reminding everyone of the joy and passion you can still bring to this wonderful game. As a group, they do it on a daily basis across all of Major League Baseball as well as anyone, and as an individual, Willson Contreras might do it the best.

So for the rest of the season, every time I see that Citgo sign, I’m now going to think of Venezuela. While it’s gone from the Boston skyline, I’m going to think of the buildings that are gone from the Venezuelan skyline. As it builds back up, I’m going to think of the resiliency of the Venezuelan people, who will also rebuild their country stronger and more beautiful than ever with time. And each time any Red Sox player does something good and celebrates with that Citgo Sign display, I’m going to smile at the ability baseball has to bring us all together, because that might just be the greatest power of this magnificent game.

Here’s where you can make donations to Venezuela via the Red Sox site. Hopefully, it will keep getting visits all year long. And hey, if we’re really lucky, maybe the comeback that’s coming for Venezuela will end up emblematic of both that tenth inning on Sunday, and the rest of the Red Sox season.

As Wilyer wrote: “All together for Venezuela!”

When you keep hearing about how the Yankees need to shop in the relief aisle come the trade deadline, that probably tells you something about the state of their bullpen.

Despite nice numbers in some departments, the pinstriped ‘pen has provided too many agita moments for a team with big-time October aspirations and needs, at the very least, more depth. 

Your move, Brian Cashman. 

Their closer has been nails lately, but had a 5.14 ERA as recently as May 18. Their hoped-for primary setup man has issues with left-handed hitters. Their lefty killer had a 4.02 ERA entering Wednesday (all numbers in this piece are entering Wednesday), nearly a run worse than his final mark last season. They’ve blown 13 save opportunities. 

But the Yankees also have seen some pitchers emerge – Brent Headrick, for one – and have hope that one of their top prospects, Carlos LaGrange, can transition from the rotation to the bullpen to become a hard-throwing intimidator late in games. Fernando Cruz’s splitter is fearsome. 

And the pen as a whole grades out well by several stats – entering Wednesday, the Yanks were sixth-best among bullpens in fWAR. They own the fourth-highest ground-ball rate of any bullpen in the majors and the third-best homers-per-nine-innings rate. 

They are second in pen ERA (3.19) and have the fifth-lowest opponent average. They’ve also thrown the sixth-fewest bullpen innings. In their last 10 games entering Wednesday, Yankee relievers had a 1.13 ERA. In their last 22, it’s 2.12. 

We’ll have to take it all into consideration as we formulate a grade for the relievers for the first half of this season. 

David Bednar, the closer, has had some late adventures, but he’s bloomed recently. He went on the paternity list on Monday carrying a streak of 12 straight scoreless appearances that trimmed his ERA more than two runs, down to 3.09. He’s saved 16 games in 18 chances. And some of his expected numbers suggest his numbers could be even better.

He gets a lot of chase (his chase percentage is in the 100th percentile, according to Statcast) and his ground ball rate is in the 96th percentile. 

Camilo Doval looks the part of a high-leverage reliever with a 98.5-mile-per-hour fastball and an expected ERA of 2.81. But overall this season he owns a 4.55 ERA, allows 8.5 hits per nine innings, and gives up massive hard contact.

Lefties, in particular, are mashing against him with a .350 average and a .941 OPS. To give you an idea of the OPS, there are only four batters in MLB who have an OPS that high this season and it’s a glittering group – Yordan Alvarez, Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Schwarber.

But Doval has been better lately, recording a 0.96 ERA in 10 games since June 5. But, perhaps indicative of his season, the one earned run he’s allowed in that span came when he inherited a jam and surrendered a grand slam to Andrew Benintendi of the White Sox on June 18.

“Slumps are part of the game as baseball players,” he told MLB.com through an interpreter afterward. “We all go through them. I’m not exactly getting the results that I expect of myself right this moment, but I know they’re coming. I know a good streak is coming.”

Cruz had a nifty 2025 and he’s even better now with a 2.57 ERA in 39 games. He throws his diving splitter half the time and batters are only hitting .130 against the pitch. He’s also finished 41 strikeouts with it, the fourth-most strikeouts on splitters in the majors. The three pitchers with more – Nathan Eovaldi, Shota Imanaga, and Kevin Gausman – are all starters.

Lefty Tim Hill has seen an uptick in ERA, thanks in part to a 7.45 mark in May. But he still gets ground balls as well as anyone, limits walks, and keeps the ball off the barrel while primarily relying on a sinker. If he keeps getting ground balls at his usual rate (63.6 percent), his ERA likely will plunge.

Headrick, in his first extended run in the majors, has proved invaluable as another lefty in the pen. The 28-year-old has a 1.58 ERA in 41 outings and only one pitcher who has pitched in at least that many games has a lower ERA – Toronto’s Louis Varland (0.98).

“He’s been huge down there,” Aaron Boone said recently of Headrick. “He just continues to solidify himself at this level. He’s pitching with a lot of confidence.”

The Yankees have gotten some good innings from Paul Blackburn, who has a 1.17 ERA in June and a 2.50 mark overall. Ryan Yarbrough can offer multi-inning stints, too.

The Yanks haven’t fixed Jake Bird, though. Bird, who came over at the trade deadline last year, has a 4.88 ERA and has been up and down from Triple-A.

GRADE: B-

There’s high-level talent and it’s hard to ignore the numbers. It just feels like the path to Bednar should be smoother. The Yankees have always shown a willingness and an ability to upgrade their bullpen, to say nothing of how they’ve unearthed relief gems others might’ve missed. Here’s betting they do that again. The final grade could be much higher.