The Red Sox are relying on Roman Anthony to be their primary power acquisition

The ZiPS projections are out, and they’re not impressed with the thump — or lack thereof — in the Red Sox lineup. If you visit Fangraphs and sort these individual player projections by home runs, you have to go all the way down to a tie for 127th to find the first name in a Red Sox uniform.

More specifically, Roman Anthony, Trevor Story, and Wilyer Abreu are each projected to hit 18 home runs and lead a lineup with no clear alpha dog. For comparison, the Yankees have seven different players projected to hit at least 20 home runs in 2026 according to ZiPS.

Meanwhile, the top of the board spanning all of MLB is littered with guys who were just available in free agency and the Red Sox could have signed to fix this problem. This includes Kyle Schwarber (second at 43 home runs), Pete Alonso (fifth at 38 home runs), and Eugenio Suarez (eighth at 35 homes runs). (For anybody wondering, Rafael Devers comes in at a tie for 14th on this list and is projected to hit 30 home runs.)

So now for the real important question: How much does this matter?

Well, if recent history is any indication, quite a bit. Below is a list of the last 25 World Series champions (every team since the turn of the century minus the COVID season in 2020), the hitter who led the team in home runs, and how many they hit.

For the most part, there’s a pretty clear message here: You need at least one guy who can go deep 30 or more times. Not just because of the obvious ability to do damage, but also because having at least one big bopper in the postseason forces the opponent to game plan and pitch around them, which often paves the way for somebody else to make them pay in expensive fashion.

The only exceptions to this rule all came in a tight six year window between 2010 and 2015, when several stars aligned at the end of the steroid era and before the more recent launch angel era. Between these two power obsessed periods, you had one complete exception to everything in the 2015 Kansas City Royals, and a trio of San Francisco Giants teams, which were not only driven by pitching, but also played in about as unfriendly of a hitting environment as you’ll find anywhere in the sport. (Their 2012 team actually ranked dead last in home runs, but that was also Buster Posey’s MVP season, so you can sort of argue this one both ways.)

In other words, either the 2026 Red Sox pitching staff better resemble those early 2010s Giants teams, or somebody better step up internally and hit 30 bombs.

There are a few candidates, including Wilyer Abreu, who hit 18 jacks last year pre All-Star break before battling injuries in the second half, and Trevor Story, who averaged 31 home runs per year in each of his first four seasons, but hasn’t hit the mark since leaving Coors Field. But there’s one candidate who truly has the upside to solve this problem.

Before downplaying things and playfully giving it back to Rob Bradford in this clip from the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast earlier this week, Anthony gives us a pretty serios “that’s the goal” quote. It’s said so matter-of-factly, it’s hard for me to believe Anthony hasn’t been pouring his focus into that all winter.

Now of course, the front office doesn’t want to publicly put that pressure on a 21-year-old kid (even though that’s exactly what they’ve done implicitly with their roster building), so you get quotes like this gem from Craig Breslow yesterday when Alex Speier of the Boston Globe asked him about the aforementioned ZiPS projections.

Uh yeah, as noted, they probably need a guy who can launch 30 home runs, not 20, and for better or worse, Roman Anthony is the guy mostly likely to fill those shoes.

Here’s Lou Merloni on Anthony being in the best shape of his life:

Putting the weight of the world on the shoulders of one of the youngest guys in the league is exactly what you shouldn’t be doing, but that’s precisely where we’re at entering 2026. Roman Anthony is already the best everyday player in Boston, and now the Red Sox need him to be a superstar. Because if he isn’t, they don’t have one in the lineup.

Orioles question of the moment: If you could change one moment in franchise history, what would it be?

TORONTO, ON - OCTOBER 04: Edwin Encarnacion #10 of the Toronto Blue Jays reacts after hitting a three-run walk-off home run in the eleventh inning to defeat the Baltimore Orioles 5-2 in the American League Wild Card game at Rogers Centre on October 4, 2016 in Toronto, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Being a sports fan is all about the endurance of disappointment. Odds are that your team is not going to win the championship in a given year. They aren’t going to sign or trade for the exact player you want. That prospect that has been built up for years probably won’t pan out. But you keep watching anyway because, much like pizza, even bad sports are still pretty good.

Orioles fans are plenty familiar with all of those types of failings. The 21st century has largely been a calamity for this organization. They’ve lost a lot, gone though a few rebuilds, and gotten to experience only brief moments of glory. Hopefully 2026 will be one of the better seasons we have experienced.

But before we move forward, let’s go back. The discussion today will give you, dear reader, two powers. First, you get to go back in time. And then, you can actually alter history, probably ripping a hole in the space time continuum. But let’s not get all deep about it.

Today’s question: If you could change one moment in franchise history, what would it be?

Your answer will likely depend on your age. My realm of fandom is largely contained to the last 25 years or so. I was born in 1993, so my conscious enjoyment of baseball kicked off as soon as the team got really, really bad. The 2005 Orioles scarred me, and I will always love the 2012 squad.

With that in mind, here are some of the big things that stick out in my head. Signing Chris Davis to that massive contract going into 2016 was obviously a mistake. The decision to go with Ubaldo Jiménez while Zack Britton went unused in the bullpen during the 2016 AL Wild Card Game was baffling then, and still is today. Manny Machado should have been an Oriole for life, regardless of the cost.

Slightly older fans will certainly have thoughts about Mike Mussina going to the Yankees, or the Jeffrey Meier game in 1996. And the generation before them is likely to recall the World Series losses in 1979 or ’69. All are worthy contenders here.

What do you think, Camden Chat? What moment sticks out to you as something worth altering history for? What would you change? Let us know in the comment section.

Mets Morning News: Pitchers and catchers officially report

PORT ST. LUCIE, FLORIDA - MARCH 13: Francisco Lindor #12 of the New York Mets throws the ball against the Boston Red Sox in the first inning during a spring training game at Clover Park on March 13, 2025 in Port St. Lucie, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Meet the Mets

Francisco Lindor underwent surgery to fix the hamate injury he has been dealing with, but the Mets are optimistic he will be ready for Opening Day.

Kodai Senga has suffered some unfortunate injuries the past two seasons, and he’s hoping this is the year he will stay healthy and can be a productive member of the rotation.

There are plenty of new faces in camp both from outside the organization and rookies trying to make the team.

After a disappointing 2025 season and a revamped team heading into 2026, the Mets will need to get off to a good start or Carlos Mendoza could be facing some tough questions.

The Mets have had some dominant pitchers in their history, but who is the best pitcher of all time in the strikeout category?

Around the National League East

A panel of writers for USA Today predicted that the Braves will finish third in the NL East.

The Marlins signed lefty reliever John King to a one-year deal worth $1.5 million.

The Phillies reportedly told Nick Castellanos to not report to camp while they decide whether to trade or release the outfielder.

The Nationals signed veteran righty Miles Mikolas to a one-year contract.

Around Major League Baseball

The Orioles signed Chris Bassitt to a one-year, $18.5 million contract.

Both Corbin Carroll and Jackson Holliday also have broken hamate bones that require surgery, and it’s unclear whether they will be ready for Opening Day.

What exactly is the hamate bone, and why are so many players suffering this specific injury?

Lawyers for Guardians pitcher Luis Ortiz argue he was a victim of Emmanuel Clase’s alleged pitch rigging scheme so they should be tried separately.

The number of British coaches in Major League Baseball is continuing to climb as they try to grown the game across the pond.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Chris McShane previewed Adbert Alzolay’s season.

Steve Sypa and Lukas Vlahos shared our list of the Mets’ top 25 prospects for the 2026 season.

This Date in Mets History

On this date in 1992, Keith Hernandez made a guest appearance on the TV show Seinfeld.

Evan Phillips is back, bye bye Benny Biceps (again)

Just one more sleep until pitchers and catchers officially report to Dodgers Spring Training. Many of them are already in camp, itching to get that third World Series ring in a row.

One guy who is back is our favorite Honeybun, one Evan Phillips. Phillips was non-tendered in November, six months after he underwent Tommy John surgery. The quiet right-handed relief pitcher was dominate before his surgery, especially against right-handed batting. He has a 0.00 ERA in the playoffs over 12 games in five different series. Fabian Ardaya has all the details here.

Should he return to his former dominance, he will join a slightly revamped bullpen that now features Edwin Diaz as closer. When Phillips last pitched for the Dodgers, the team was mainly doing closer by committee. Phillips would be on track to join the team sometime this summer.

Unfortunately, a catcher who won’t be in Spring Training with the Dodgers (for now) is Ben Rortvedt. Benny Biceps has had quite the eventful offseason, getting DFA’d by the Dodgers, claimed by the Cincinnati Reds, being DFA’d by them, and then claimed again by the Dodgers. The hope is that this time no one claims Rortvedt and he’s able to return to Oklahoma City for some catching depth.

Bill Plunkett of the OC Register had some questions about the Dodgers as Spring Training is about to begin -who will be the main second baseman, how will the Dodgers deal with their ‘high class’ problems, who will fill out the bullpen, where’s Kike’, and how will the WBC impact the roster?

Here’s my simple answer to all of them – it will work itself out, especially the bullpen and ‘high-class’ problems. Without putting too many jinxes out there, the Dodgers always have a plethora of pitching to start the season and by the middle of the season, whatever they had originally planned in March is out the window. (Personally, I don’t think saying that is any more of a jinx than Plunkett pointing out what players have been injured in the WBC in the past).

And as far as Kiké Hernández rejoining the team, well, we all know it will happen. Since he underwent elbow surgery in the offseason, he won’t be playing with the team any time soon even if he was on the roster. Things just need to work themselves out, as they always do.

Here are all the White Sox who have committed to play in the World Baseball Classic

White Sox fans will get a sneak peek at Munetaka Murakami’s talent as he suits up for Team Japan in the WBC. | Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

The World Baseball Classic is right around the corner, and the White Sox will have players representing countries from around the world. Five current South Siders and one old friend will be suiting up for their teams in just a few weeks, ready to make some noise.

Sam Antonacci and Kyle Teel are packing their bags for Team Italy. Antonacci, a versatile infielding prospect (MLB No. 11) with a steady bat, might just drag the Italians through a tough pool, while Teel’s bat and athleticism give the gil Azzurri a potential game-changer at the plate.

Seranthony Domínguez gets the call for the Dominican Republic, and he’s no stranger to big moments. He’ll be a late-inning sledgehammer for a D.R. squad loaded with thunder, including Juan Soto, Manny Machado and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Pick your poison. If they go deep, Domínguez could be right in the thick of it.

Curtis Mead will suit up for Australia, bringing some South Side grit down under. Australia rarely gets headlines but has quietly earned respect in past tournaments.

Munetaka Murakami, Chicago’s big-ticket offseason buy, is one of the headliners on Japan’s roster, and expectations will be sky-high with the power and big stage experience. Murakami checks a lot of boxes, and he’ll be a player to watch every time that Samurai Japan steps to the plate.

And then there’s Alexei Ramírez, forever a South Side favorite. He’s 44 now, and somehow back in a Team Cuba jersey two decades after his WBC debut in 2014. Even 10 years removed from the majors, the veteran shortstop brings experience, savvy, and baseball soul to Cuba’s lineup.

Tournament play starts with Teams Chinese Taipei and Australia in the Tokyo Dome at 10:00 p.m. ET on March 4. Team USA plays an exhibition game against the Colorado Rockies that same day at 3:10 p.m. ET at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick in Scottsdale. Team USA’s official tournament play begins on March 6 at 8:00 p.m. ET versus Team Brazil on FOX.

For fans, the WBC isn’t just another tournament. It’s proof that elite baseball talent is everywhere. And for Chicago, the South Side’s fingerprints are all over the map.

The Yankees and Spencer Jones have reached a crossroads

TAMPA, FLORIDA - MARCH 16, 2025: Spencer Jones #78 of the New York Yankees bats during the eighth inning of a game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at George M. Steinbrenner Field on March 16, 2025 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images

As pitchers and catchers report and teams prepare for the start of spring training, not many teams around Major League Baseball project to have a more powerful outfield than the New York Yankees in 2026. Three-time MVP Aaron Judge will continue to anchor the lineup in right field, coming off another unbelievable season: .331/.457/.688, 53 home runs, 114 RBI, .357 ISO, 18.3/23.6 BB/K%. Judge posted a wRC+ over 200 for the third time in four years, and he’ll enter the upcoming season as the most feared slugger in the sport.

The other two outfield spots were in question entering the offseason, but the Yankees were able to bring back both Trent Grisham and Cody Bellinger; Grisham accepted the qualifying offer and will make $22 million in the Bronx this season, and Bellinger re-signed on a five-year, $162.5 million contract. Judge, Bellinger, and Grisham combined for 116 home runs in 2025, and after much commotion and uncertainty, all three will be returning to their starting outfield roles next season.

This was probably the best (realistic) outcome the Yankees could have hoped for, but it’s not great news for Spencer Jones, the team’s first-round pick from the 2022 MLB Draft who’s still looking for his shot in the big leagues. Jones is behind not only those three outfielders on the depth chart, but also Jasson Domínguez, who played 123 games with the Bombers last season. Despite decent offensive production, Domínguez has still not been able to secure a full-time role with those three sluggers occupying the outfield and Giancarlo Stanton firmly locked into the DH spot.

Domínguez is not even guaranteed a roster spot to open the season, which leaves Jones firmly stuck in the minor leagues, where he hit 35 home runs and stole 29 bases in 2025. Jones spent his age-24 season between Double-A and Triple-A, and while his power/speed numbers were overwhelming, he also struck out 35.4 percent of the time between the two levels. That’s an astronomical strikeout rate, and it actually came down a tick from 2024 when he struck out 36.8 percent of the time in Double-A with only half as many home runs as he hit last year. He’s one of the most toolsy prospects in baseball, but this is exactly why Jones is so polarizing around the league; there’s hit-tool risk, and then there’s whatever this is.

Many prospect analysts are firmly out on Jones because of these bright red flags, but the Yankees view him so highly because whatever this is can sometimes look incredibly special. In 49 games at Double-A last season, Jones hit 16 home runs (just one shy of his total the year prior in 73 fewer games) and stole ten bases. His walk rate jumped from 9.9 percent to 15.4 percent, his ISO went from .193 to .320, and his wRC+ ballooned to 185. In his first 114 plate appearances after his promotion to Triple-A, Jones was hitting .375/.439/.844 with 13 home runs, 10 steals, a 219 wRC+, and just a 24-percent strikeout rate. He hit the IL shortly after with a back injury and was a shell of himself the rest of the way upon return, but optimistically speaking you can make a legitimate case that the drop-off was largely due to the lingering injury.

That’s been exactly the case with Jones throughout his professional career. However you feel about him, he’s given you every reason to continue feeling that way. If he can produce anything even close to what he was doing around the end of July against big-league pitching, he should be a superstar. However, MLB pitchers are a massive step up from their minor-league counterparts, and it’s entirely possible that Jones’ hit tool is too weak for him to ever become a fixture in a big-league lineup. Jones possesses arguably the widest range of outcomes of any prospect in baseball, and that’s why most professional rankings have him in the back end of their Top 100 if he’s even included at all.

The Yankees, who don’t currently have a spot for him, seem completely unwilling to sell him at that price. Other teams have been understandably unwilling to buy him at theirs. If you believe Jon Heyman’s report, the Yankees would only consider trading Jones for a player like Paul Skenes. That simply is not happening. If there was ever a time to trade him it would’ve been last year, when Jones’ value peaked at the exact same time as the trade deadline, but it didn’t happen. Which leads to the crossroads that the Yankees and Jones find themselves at entering the 2026 season.

There is no spot for Jones in the Yankees’ lineup. Multiple injuries would need to occur for him to get a chance, and a player with a profile like his could take a long time to ramp up in his first extended look against MLB pitching. A team hunting for a pennant might not be able to provide that runway if it means eating a 40 percent strikeout rate during a long adjustment period. Jones will turn 25 in mid-May, however, and if he’s healthy and productive he needs to get a chance this year. So something’s gotta give.

The Yankees might be higher on Jones than any other organization in baseball. After they turned another 24-year-old 6-foot-7 outfielder with immense power and a scary hit tool into the greatest hitter of his generation, we can’t exactly fault them for that, but it does make trading Jones especially difficult. They’re unwilling to move him for a rental, and other teams are unwilling to invest significantly in a player who swings and misses as often as Jones does. It feels like they can’t trade him and they can’t keep him either; they can’t clear the runway for him and they can’t keep him trapped in the minors forever.

If the market for Jones around the league is lower than we think, it makes more sense for the Yankees to keep him. The argument for it is simple. At some point, they need to open Schrodinger’s box. If there’s a dead cat inside, they have enough alternative options that they can bury him in the backyard and drive over to PetSmart without it severely derailing their short-term or long-term plans. If the cat is happy and healthy, one of the best lineups in the American League could add another star player on a rookie contract or team-friendly extension for the foreseeable future. If they trade him for less than he’s worth, they could end up getting scratched for a decade.

If a deal emerges that the Yankees feel is fair value though, it might be in the best interest of the player and the organization for them to take it. Jones may be the type of player who sticks around for a while, but will require patience and a lot of trial-and-error on his journey. That journey may be better suited for a team without immediate World Series aspirations and a market less daunting than New York. If they do choose to keep him, it’s difficult but not impossible to envision a path to a full-time role.

Trent Grisham surprised everybody by accepting the qualifying offer this year, but he’ll reach a deal in free agency eventually and it likely won’t be with the Yankees. Domínguez doesn’t have the defensive ability to man center field in the Bronx long-term, which could open a path for the more speedy, taller Jones. A lot is riding on how he handles Triple-A pitching in the first few months of the season. If he looks likes the Spencer Jones of last April-July, he could force the Yankees’ hand and make his MLB debut sometime this summer. If they give him a taste of the action similar to what Domínguez had last year, he could prove himself as a long-term option by holding his own and making ample contact against big-league pitching. It’d require a lot of patience from all parties involved, but if the Yankees believe in Jones to the extent that they’ve indicated and are willing to put their money where their mouth is (both figuratively and literally), he could still end up wearing pinstripes for years to come.

Kansas City Royals news: Mayor Lucas promises a ballpark deal in 2026

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - NOVEMBER 10: Mayor of Kansas City Quinton Lucas speaks during a press conference for THUNDERGONG!, a charity benefiting the Steps of Faith Foundation, at Uptown Theater on November 10, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Kyle Rivas/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Anne Rogers writes about how Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic are focusing on staying healthy.

Everything is about staying on the mound this year.

“We want to be out there,” Bubic said. “Cole is as competitive as it gets as well. We want to be out there playing with our guys every fifth day. We want to be part of it. I know we fell short of the playoffs last year, but we feel like there’s no reason we can’t get there again and succeed.”

She also has the early reports on who is in camp.

Jaylon Thompson is in camp and he talks to Kansas City native Alex Lange, now in camp as a reliever.

“Oh man, we used to go to games for five bucks,” Lange said. “Park for five bucks, eat for a dollar and go in there for dollar buck night back in the day. You know, Jermaine Dye, Mike Sweeney and all the boys back then. We followed the 2014-15 teams through their runs while in high school. It was pretty special. “So, I mean, we were going to 10 games a year just enjoying it and having a good time.”

He also writes about the setbacks that cost James McArthur all of last season.

McArthur missed the entirety of Royals spring training — and ultimately the season — in 2025. The medical staff worked to understand what led to his continued discomfort. At first, McArthur had one of his screws removed due to the belief it was in a bad spot.

“I was super puffy,” McArthur said. “I don’t want to get too deep into it, but it’s just like when they saw the image, they could see stuff in my elbow and they were like, ‘This isn’t normal.’ And their only thought or best guess through imaging was that it was like bone chipping from the screw head that was sticking out of the bone just a touch.”

Pete Grathoff writes that Bobby Witt Jr.’s puppy was one of the first ones in camp.

David Lesky projects which pitchers will make the roster.

I think there are some definite trade candidates in here. I know I’ve been saying they might move Schreiber all winter, but I just remember Picollo talking about Mears the same way he talks about Schreiber and think that the bullpen probably only needs one of them. I mentioned Avila and Cruz, but Neris is an interesting pickup on a minor league deal. He struggled last year with three teams, pitching to a 6.75 ERA, 5.35 FIP and 4.59 xERA. Maybe he’s toast as he’s entering his age-37 season, but he still got plenty of strikeouts. My guess is he doesn’t show enough, but you never know, I guess.

In his annual State of the City address, Mayor Quinton Lucas pledged to get a stadium deal done with the Royals this year.

“We will get a deal done in 2026 that’s fair and transparent for our taxpayers, our future, and our team,” Lucas said….

Lucas said he wouldn’t speak for the Royals, but said he thinks downtown checks all the boxes.

“We’ve kept strong relationships with the Kansas City Royals throughout the process,” he said. “So I have to say, I will never speak for them. I think they have important decisions to make, but I think in making a transformational decision, not just for the team but for this entire region.”

Philip Ruo at Royals Keep wonders if the Royals have done enough to compete in 2026.

Patrick Glancy at Powder Blue Nostalgia writes about the Royals games he attended in 2025.

The Cubs sign former Royals pitcher Kyle Wright to a minor league deal.

The Nationals sign pitcher Miles Mikolas to a one-year, $2.25 million deal.

The Orioles sign pitcher Chris Bassitt to a one-year, $18.5 million contract.

The Twins sign reliever Liam Hendriks to a minor league deal.

Orioles infielder Jackson Holliday has a broken hamate bone and will miss the start of the season.

Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll also has a broken hamate.

Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor will have surgery on his hamate bone.

What is the hamate anyway?

The Astros and Pirates have discussed a Joey Bart trade.

The young players who could be getting contract extensions soon.

Carson Roccaforte is among the hitters whose ZIPS projection has improved the most over last year.

Phillies pitcher Zach Wheeler keeps his surgically removed rib as a memento from his thoracic outlet surgery.

Iowa lawmakers make their pitch to lure the Bears from Chicago.

Candace Parker, Blake Griffin, and A’mare Stoudamire are among the finalists for this year’s Basketball Hall of Fame class.

NASA finds Jupiter is a tiny bit smaller than we previously thought.

Ring’s Super Bowl ad has sparked concerns about privacy and surveillance.

Why do we like music?

Your song of the day is Pavement with Rattled by the Rush.

What do fans think is going to be the 2026 Giants’ biggest weakness?

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 11: A detailed view of the cap and baseball glove belonging to Willy Adames #2 of the San Francisco Giants is seen in the dugout prior to the start of the game against the San Diego Padres at Oracle Park on August 11, 2025 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Good morning baseball fans!

As we approach Spring Training and the beginning of the season, we’re going to be doing some questions for y’all about your thoughts about the San Francisco Giants and baseball in general!

Today’s question: What is going to be the 2026 Giants’ biggest weakness?

Yes, I know Spring Training has only just begun. But as the team stands right now, after all of the moves that have been made thus far to improve the roster, what would you consider to be their biggest weakness?

I’m pretty awful at judging this kind of thing. So don’t take my opinion as anything other than just that, an opinion. But I think my answer would have to be the rotation.

I had expected them to be more aggressive on that front in the offseason. And to be fair, they did address it. To a degree. The additions of Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser were not nothing.

But I don’t yet share the same optimism the team may have had in these additions. I think they are both coming off of good seasons, but I also think those seasons may have been outliers. And I’ve seen how the organization tends to put all their eggs in the basket of those outliers continuing. So I have concerns.

Behind Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, I don’t yet have a high level of confidence. And I’m going to emphasize that “yet” because I’d be happy to be proven wrong!

What is going to be the 2026 Giants’ biggest weakness?

Tink Hence is your #10 St. Louis Cardinals prospect

JUPITER, - MARCH 15: Tink Hence #12 of the St. Louis Cardinals pitches during the 2024 Spring Breakout Game between the Miami Marlins and the St. Louis Cardinals at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on Friday, March 15, 2024 in Jupiter, Florida. (Photo by Scott Audette/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

For the fourth straight season, Tink Hence has made the VEB top prospects list and he’s been a top 10 player every season. I think he was actually top 5 in the previous three years. Some of that is because Hence’s health issues have become a little more concerning, but if you took the exact type of prospect Hence is now and tried to place him in past years’ list, I think he’d rank higher than 10. So it’s also a function of the system being stronger.

  1. JJ Wetherholt
  2. Liam Doyle
  3. Rainiel Rodriguez
  4. Quinn Mathews
  5. (or 6) Joshua Baez
  6. (or 5) Jurrangelo Cjintje
  7. Leonardo Bernal
  8. Jimmy Crooks
  9. Brandon Clarke
  10. Tink Hence

Jurrangelo Cjintje
I’m going to make this introduction every time because this may be the first prospect vote you’ve seen. When the Cardinals traded Brendan Donovan, we had already ranked the first 7 prospects. Cjintje was by most measures going to be somewhere in that top 7. So instead of starting over, Cjintje is facing off against the prospects, one-by-one, head-to-head, until he loses. He defeated Crooks in a head-to-head and then Bernal on Monday. Today you have to decide if Cjintje or Joshua Baez is the better prospect. If Cjintje wins, he then faces Quinn Mathews. If he loses, he will be the #6 prospect in the system. Scouting report below:

“Cjintje is technically a switch pitcher, but it is very clear from the scouting and the numbers that he is a far better pitcher right-handed. From the right side, Cjintje throws mid-90s and has topped at 99 mph. He has both a cutter and a sweeper, though the sweeper is the better pitch. He also throws an upper-80s change. From his left side, he is effectively a two-pitch pitcher, throwing low 90s with a solid sweeper. Statistically, it wasn’t close. He walked more than he struck out and allowed 7 homers in 21 innings from the left side, but from the right side he had a 5.0 K/BB ratio and only allowed 3 homers in 34.1 IP.“

VOTE HERE

Comparable Player Poll

Sometimes, I find a player comparison that just seems natural. I find two players who feel like they should be compared to each other. They are roughly similar prospects, they play the same position, and they’re even the same handedness. The only difference is strikeouts and proximity to the big leagues.

Braden Davis was a 5th round draft choice in 2024. With an elite change that produces crazy swing-and-miss, Davis struck out 33% of batters at both Low A and High A. The rest of his arsenal is not quite as good and he has some serious issues with walking batters (16.6% for the season), but he will be 23-years-old and is probably 5-10 great starts away from being in AA next season. Or at least 5-10 starts of a normal walk rate away.

Pete Hansen was a 3rd round draft pick back in 2022 and he’s pretty much excelled one level at a time since then. He doesn’t necessarily have an elite pitch, but he does have great command of his pitches, walking just 6% of batters last year. With a strong 46% GB rate and 21.1 K%, he had pretty good numbers in a hitting environment. No question where the 25-year-old will be in 2025: AAA.

VOTE HERE

New Add

The Tanner Franklin experience is making me trust my gut a bit more. I had a feeling he wasn’t going to be like most guys I add and slowly build up votes. I actually have two guys who give me that feeling right now. So I’m going to trust my gut again and put both on the ballot. Unfortunately, neither of those guys is Tai Peete. This is becoming something of a running bit at this point. I am also, for now, removing Ryan Mitchell from the voting. Sorry. There’s too many names. Mitchell has gotten three votes total in his two polls. He will get added back in, but right now I’d rather see if a different name will do better first.

And as a consolation, if either Mitchell, Peete, or anyone else I add win the very first vote I put them on, the next vote I’ll have them face off against the guy ahead of them just to be safe. Similar to what I’m doing with Cjintje. Because if they win the first vote, I added them too late. Franklin is a good example of it working out well. He absolutely needed to be in the previous vote, but because he didn’t win, I know I didn’t add him too late.

I’m adding Nathan Church because of Moises Gomez and Matt Koperniak, essentially. I do not think they are similar prospects. Koperniak was old and Gomez had swing-and-miss issues. But broadly speaking, this describes all three: non-prospect who has a breakout great season and is seemingly MLB-ready on Day One. Based on past voting, it kind of feels like I need to give you a chance to vote for Church now. It’s a better system, so who knows where he’ll land, but he would be between 10-15 in years past guaranteed.

I also want to add Yhoiker Fajardo, mainly because it wouldn’t totally shock me if he pulled a Franklin essentially. Just leapfrogs a bunch of guys in the voting. It also wouldn’t shock me if he barely got any votes. You guys did not like him when I compared him to Tanner Franklin. But just the fact that I think the former is possible is enough to put him on the vote.

Jesus Baez, IF – 21

Stats (High A): 416 PAs, .244/.327/.397, 10.3 BB%, 18.5 K%, .153 ISO, .270 BABIP, 116 wRC+, 121 DRC+

Scouting (FG): 30/45 Hit, 35/50 Game Power, 50/55 Raw Power, 40/40 Speed, 40/45 Fielding

Baez is somewhat fascinating, especially in light of Keith Law’s negative assessment of his character, because on the one hand, character very much impacts a prospect’s ability to reach their full potential. It seems like whatever scouts (or Law specifically) looks for in a player that will reach their max potential, he does not have. It’s also very nebulous though. Oh yeah and he was 20-years-old last year. And so far, it hasn’t affected performance at all. Good luck trying to place this profile on a list.

Nathan Church, OF – 25

Stats (AA): 129 PAs, .336/.380/.563, 6.2 BB%, 7.8 K%, .227 ISO, .327 BABIP, 157 wRC+, 136 DRC+

AAA: 242 PAs, .335/.400/.521, 9.9 BB%, 10.3 K%, .186 ISO, .338 BABIP 144 wRC+, 132 DRC+

MLB: 65 PAs, .179/.254/.250, 4.6 BB%, 27.7 K%, .071 ISO, .237 BABIP, 46 wRC+, 78 DRC+

Scouting: 55/55 Hit, 35/35 Game Power, 40/40 Raw Power, 55/55 Speed, 45/45 Field

Church deviates from my examples above in many ways, but the most interesting of which is the fact that he actually got to debut in the major leagues. A fact that actually might hurt him in comparison. Had Gomez or Koperniak debuted and hit the way Church hit, I don’t think Gomez is anywhere near 10th in voting and I kind of think Koperniak misses the list entirely. So that’s a wrinkle that may change the comparison in voting.

Yhoiker Fajardo, RHP – 19

Stats (CPX): 6 G, 20.2 IP, 31.6 K%, 9.2 BB%, 51.2 GB%, .205 BABIP, 0.44 ERA/2.41 FIP/3.29 xFIP

Low A: 13 GS, 51.1 IP, 27.8 K%, 9.4 BB%, 50 GB%, .326 BABIP, 2.98 ERA/2.50 FIP/3.14 xFIP

Scouting: 40/45 Fastball, 55/60 Slider, 30/50 Change, 35/50 Command

I had, by the way, always intended to add Fajardo when Franklin was close to being selected. So when he was high in the voting, I was like okay I need to get him on the list soon. In a way I’m replacing Mitchell with a very different kind of 19-year-old prospect. I always wonder when a player this young has a season like this if Low A was on the Red Sox’ radar at the beginning of the season or did he just essentially force them to promote him because he dominated. Did they intend for him to throw 72 innings? It’s in line with the progression you want to see, but if he pitched poorly in the complex, he isn’t getting promoted to Low A, and no way is he throwing 70 innings if he’s never promoted. Anyway, he can throw about 100 this year, so that’s nice for the Cardinals.

Tanner Franklin, 22 – RHP

Stats: 3 GS, 6 IP, 32.1 K%, 17.9 BB%, 66.7 GB%, .333 BABIP, 1.50 ERA/3.95 FIP/4.28 xFIP

Scouting: 60/70 Fastball, 40/55 Slider, 30/40 Change, 40/45 Cutter, 30/40 Command

My conception of when I was going to add Franklin was way off, and yet it appears that my conception of when I suspect he’d be selected seems about right. So why exactly did he keep losing head to head polls? He is probably going to be a higher ranked prospect than two players that he beat directly in a head to head voting matchup. That’s kind of bizarre right? There’s something about his profile that makes a significant portion of people doubt him, but of the people who believe in him, they’re all-in.

Ixan Henderson, 24 – LHP

Stats (AA): 25 GS, 132 IP, 25.2 K%, 9.6 BB%, 37.1 GB%, .278 BABIP, 2.59 ERA/3.16 FIP/4.00 xFIP/4.51 DRA

Scouting: 50/60 Fastball, 45/50 Slider, 30/40 Change, 40/45 Cutter, 40/50 Command

Henderson looks like a less exciting prospect after the big infusion of pitching talent the Cardinals have undergone the last few seasons. This is for two reasons: the other guys, for the most part, have more upside. But also, the Cardinals are significantly less reliant specifically on Henderson working out than they were just a year ago. That means he’ll get less attention. Which is fine because I hope the Cardinals continue finding under the radar pitchers in the new regime to complement the higher upside arms.

Cooper Hjerpe, 25 – LHP

Didn’t pitch

Scouting: 55/55 Fastball, 55/60 Slider, 50/50 Change, 45/50 Cutter, 45/50 Command

Now that Hence is selected and Roby is close behind, Hjerpe will really be the last high upside, big injury risk pitcher left. It makes sense that he’s barely got votes thus far, because I would find it crazy to vote for Hjerpe over the pitchers already selected. But if a high upside, big injury risk pitcher is your thing, he will probably get those votes now. Or next vote I guess. The lukewarm reception to Hjerpe will have no real excuses if he continues to not get votes once Roby is on the list.

Brycen Mautz, 24 – LHP

Stats (AA): 25 GS, 114.2 IP, 28.6 K%, 7.1 BB%. 41.2 GB%, .286 BABIP, 2.98 ERA/3.58 FIP/3.20 xFIP/4.54 DRA

Scouting: 45/45 Fastball, 55/55 Slider, 45/50 Curve, 30/35 Change, 50/55 Command

Fangraphs released the Cardinals list recently and with that came some updated scouting. If you were wondering, the pitches did not collectively change a lot. The fastball and slider were the exact same, his actual and potential both improved by 5, but his change went down 5 in both actual and potential. His command current took a bump but his potential remained at 55. Basically, they think he’s a slightly better pitcher than when he was graded on last year’s list, but his potential hasn’t moved.

Deniel Ortiz, 21 – 1B/3B

Stats (Low A): 320 PAs, .285/.406/.446, 15.3 BB%, 27.5 K%, .162 ISO, .386 BABIP, 145 wRC+, 119 DRC+

High A: 130 PAs, .336/.438/.500, 13.8 BB%, 22.3 K%, .164 ISO, .436 BABIP, 168 wRC+, 97 DRC+

Somewhat unbelievably, Fangraphs gave an updated list and yet I still have no scouting numbers for Deniel Ortiz. Whether or not you think Ortiz should be a top 20 prospect, is is objectively insane that he is not among the top 53 by Fangraphs. I have been very open that I’m more of a scouting the stat line guy than probably wise, but I feel like certainly stats alone should get you on the top 53. It’s not like he did this in the Dominican Summer League. Or when he was old for his level. Age-appropriate (young if anything), elite performance across two levels – I mean he should be above most relievers at minimum, no?

Yairo Padilla, 19 – SS

Stats (CPX): 38 G, 148 PAs, .283/.396/.367, 12.2 BB%, 14.2 K%, .083 ISO, .340 BABIP, 119 wRC+

Scouting: 25/55 Hit, 20/55 Game Power, 40/60 Raw Power, 50/40 Speed, 30/40 Field

I don’t think I like the fielding potential here. I am aware that he might not stick at SS and that he might not ultimately be a good defender, but a 40 grade seems absurdly low for 19-year-old still learning the position. Like they’re calling that his potential. If that’s his potential, he’d be moved off SS already I think. On the flip side to be fair, that is a very, very encouraging power projection that hasn’t really shown up in the stats at all. So you take the good with the bad.

Tekoah Roby, 24 – RHP

Stats (AA): 10 GS, 47 IP, 31.1 K%, 6 BB%, 42.9 GB%, .273 BABIP, 2.49 ERA/2.90 FIP/2.73 xFIP/4.56 DRA

AAA: 6 GS, 31.1 IP, 22.6 K%, 6 BB%, 44.7 GB%, .319 BABIP, 4.02 ERA/4.01 FIP/4.04 xFIP/4.50 DRA

45/50 Fastball, 55/55 Slider, 70/70 Curve, 40/60 Change, 40/40 Command

It’s really quite too bad Roby got injured and needed Tommy John. I am genuinely curious where he would have ranked if he ended the season healthy. He had fully returned as a prospect with fairly dominant numbers at AA. He was then solid, but nothing special in his 6 starts in AAA. I think merely being healthy would see him get a big boost with the exact same stats, but there’s also a world where he adjusts to AAA fairly quickly and improves his numbers.

VOTE HERE

Chicago Cubs news and notes — Brown, Hoyer, Wiggins

Jed Hoyer held a press conference yesterday. I didn’t see all of it, as I don’t live in Chicagoland but those who do and did view it assured me that Jed didn’t say anything that amounted to anything.

Some of the players were out and about — I’ll include clips from that activity through the weekend

I bent and bruised my hamate bone the other day. It’s no bueno, I can tell you. So I sympathize with the players who have broken theirs recently. On the outside of the hand, that bone is liable to be whapped against household effects on the regular. I feel like I should sleep with a potholder on. One of my cats slept on my hand and I woke up wanting to cry.

I know, TMI.

Spring Training games are right around the corner. It’s in the upper 70s here, a hundred miles or so south. Everything seems possible.

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Food For Thought:

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Guardians N&N – Pitchers and Catchers Reported

Sep 23, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams (32) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images | David Richard-Imagn Images

It is finally here. We made it. Pitchers and Catchers reported to Spring Training yesterday, heralding the start of the 2026 season.

It’s so beautiful. Much like this year’s Spring Training hats:

All Spring Training facilities will have Statcast data available. Every Spring Training game will have pitch and batted ball data publicly available.

Luis Ortiz is looking to have a separate trial from Emmanuel Clase.

Steven Kwan is being considered for replacing Corbin Carroll on the WBC team.

Corbin Carroll is out as he joins the weirdly growing list of players with broken hamate bones.

MLB released a “how-to watch their product” guide to ease some of the confusion.

Topps announced yesterday that the 2026 Series One includes a chance to win 2 tickets to the World Series. Series One released yesterday. I wrote up a quick guide on what Cleveland players you can expect to see in this Series.

The Phillies told Nick Castellanos to not report to Spring Training.

Thursday Rockpile: ‘Super exciting’ new Rockies chapter starts today in spring training

The snow-capped Four Peaks mountain range is seen over right field as the Arizona Diamondbacks play the Colorado Rockies during a spring training game at Salt River Fields in Scottsdale. 15 MLB teams call the Valley home for spring training. | Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Four and a half months — 137 days to be exact — after the Rockies lost their 119th game in the 2025 season finale, pitchers and catchers begin reporting to spring training today. 

It’s finally time for the Rockies to start proving that they are no longer a team falling into a losing abyss, but instead a team with a plan to change the direction of the organization. 

For manager Warren Schaeffer, this is his first time going into spring training as the man in charge. At Rockies Fest in January, he sounded more than ready for the challenge and has a plan to do it.

“We need to talk about winning all the time. We need to be able to feel it in the spring training clubhouse on day one,” Schaeffer said. “I mean, it’ll look completely different — standards, expectations need to be risen. But there always, always has to be a focus on winning. Winning in the little things, winning that night — every night — winning championships. And that’s what we’re all here for.”

The “we” Schaeffer referred to is the mostly-new coaching staff and an overhauled front office led by president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta. Their work includes forming an organizational identity that ranges from who is drafted and to how players are developed to how analytics are used and strategies on the field.

Warren Schaeffer speaks at Rockies Fest

Spring training will also provide the first glimpse of how the hiring decisions made by executive vice president Walker Monfort are panning out since he took the lead in the personnel searches. At Rockies Fest, Monfort’s new role in leadership was on full display. Dick Monfort, Rockies CEO and Walker’s father, stood to the side as Walker joined panels with the front office and with Rockies Hall of Famer Larry Walker. He said he believes it’s been a great offseason for the Rockies.

“We’re all very excited about the people that we brought on board. We’re excited about focusing more on our process, as it relates to player development, scouting, player acquisition,” Walker said. “But really, I think what we’re looking most forward to is seeing all these people in action.”

In addition to a new look behind the scenes, the change will also be evident on the field at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick in Arizona. Going into spring training, the 40-man roster is far from being decided, let alone the Opening Day lineup. This spring training, there is an undeniable feeling that players have to earn their spots.

This is especially in the rotation as the Rockies have signed three new veteran starters in Michael Lorenzen, Tomoyuki Sugano, and Jose Quintana. With struggles and injuries in 2025, the lack of depth in the starting staff forced prospects to be called up before they were ready and, it seemed like, without a solid plan for how to succeed.

The two signings this week of Sugano and Quintana certainly prove the Rockies believe some pitchers — possibly including Chase Dollander, Ryan Feltner, Tanner Gordon, McCade Brown, and Gabriel Hughes — either need more time and/or less pressure if they prove they do need another stint to work out their stuff in Triple-A Albuquerque.

For more on the rotation and bullpen battles, check out Skyler Timmins’s storylines to watch for pitchers and catchers.

Of course, battling for roster space has always been the case in spring training, but the competition of “winning the little things” that Schaeffer is focusing on will be pivotal in figuring out who makes the team. 

The transforming organization is 43 days away from Opening Day on March 27 in Miami. On that day, we will see a starting lineup that has at least five different players.

First base, second base, third base, right field, and the Opening Day starting pitcher will all look different than they did in 2025. The Rockies started last season with four starters and called up Dollander for game No. 9. This year, they head into spring training — as long as Quintana clears his physical — with much more depth in the starting staff.

That’s exciting. That’s change in action before the action starts.

No one knows the struggle of the Rockies seven straight losing seasons more than Kyle Freeland. After posting an amazing 2.85 ERA with 17 wins in 2019, which was good enough to see Freeland finish No. 4 in NL Cy Young voting, his performance aligned with the Rockies freefall. 

The only remaining starter from the 2017 and 2018 seasons when the Rockies last made it to the postseason, the lefty is now 32 years old. Born the same year the Rockies played their first game, he’s purple and black to his core.

At Rockies Fest, Freeland echoed Schaeffer’s words of being excited about a change that fans will be able to see on day one. Even as a veteran who could be set in his ways, Freeland is down for change in his form and pitch mix, as well as the structure and vibe on the field and in the clubhouse.

“I know Schaeff is going to shake things up. The business spring training is going to be different than what I’m used to, to what some of these guys are used to, and this organization is used to. So it’s one of those things that’s super exciting,” Freeland said. “It’s kind of a breath of fresh air that [with] new regime, new things are coming. It’s very exciting. I can’t wait to get to work down in Arizona with everyone down there.”

I am excited, too.


Rockies’ Ryan Feltner goes ‘caveman’ as he returns from injury-marred 2025 season | Denver Post ($)

In a great article on the pitcher who pitching coach Alon Leichman says, “has what it takes to be an All-Star in this league,” Patrick Saunders dives into how Ryan Feltner spent his offseason — mostly in the gym. Trying to diagnose why he’s struggled with injuries and taking out his anger in “caveman” style, Feltner got stronger and has a better plan to be a sustainable pitcher for the Rockies in 2026.

MLB spring training 2026: One player to watch on every team | ESPN.com

ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez will have his eye on Chase Dollander to see how the heat-throwing, highly-touted prospect can respond after a challenging rookie season in 2025.

Rockies’ Chase Dollander could finally break out — here’s why | Sporting News

The hype around Dollander keeps growing.


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2026 Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sell: Can you rely on Zack Wheeler and Pablo López after injury?

One of the biggest minefields to navigate when approaching drafting starting pitchers in fantasy baseball is our injury tolerance. We know that pitching inherently leads to an elevated risk of arm injuries, so some drafters believe that the best course of action is to lean into that risk. If all pitchers are at risk of injury, then drafting pitchers who present that risk early in the season allows you to potentially get value out of a depressed price.

For many years, I was one of those people, but the last few years have led me to change my ways. Even if there is truly no such thing as a "safe" starting pitcher, using an injury to buy a pitcher at a lower cost has also not proven to be a worthwhile strategy in recent seasons. Heading into the 2025 season, we knew that Shane McClanahan, George Kirby, Spencer Strider, Lucas Giolito, Sean Manaea, Yu Darvish, Brayan Bello, Ranger Suarez, Luis Gil, Ryan Weathers, and Clarke Schmidt were all going to be delayed to start the season. Some people saw that as a chance to draft a talented pitcher at a depressed price. However, from that group, only Ranger Suarez finished as a top-50 starting pitcher in 2025, according to FanGraphs Player Rater.

We also had Shane Bieber hope to come back from the All-Star break, but not actually return until August 22nd. We had Brandon Woodruff hope to return in May and not make his season debut until July 6th. We also had Grayson Rodriguez claim that he would come back at some point early in the season and wind up not throwing a single pitch in 2025. All of which is to say that relying on currently injured starting pitchers is a decision that doesn't often pay off if we're taking that risk earlier than the final couple of picks in our drafts.

Even though I've adjusted my approach slightly, you may not be convinced, so in this article, we can walk through all the fantasy-relevant pitchers who are coming into this season with injury concerns. For each one, I'll discuss whether I would take the risk on drafting him and in what situations. Hopefully this helps all of us avoid making those draft picks that wind up giving us little or no value during the 2026 fantasy baseball season.

⚾️ Coming soon: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.

Missed (essentially) all of 2025 and could return by opening day

Shane McClanahan - SP, Tampa Bay Rays

McClanahan missed the entire 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and was expected to start the 2025 season in the Rays' rotation. However, a nerve issue in his final start of spring training led to him being sidelined all year following a surgical procedure with Dr. Steven Shin to “clean up around the nerve” in his left triceps. It's also key to note that those two injuries are not connected. McClanahan has already been throwing and is "having a really good offseason," according to manager Kevin Cash. Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander said that McClanahan has "a day in the rotation," which means that fantasy managers should expect him to be ready to start the season and also pitch once every five days for Tampa Bay.

Now, Tampa Bay will likely limit him to about five innings per start early in the year, but they did that for Drew Rasmussen last year, and he put up solid fantasy value. McClanahan has a career 3.02 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 28% strikeout rate. He is an elite starting pitcher. If we assume that he will be rusty and on a pitch count early on in the season, then McClanahan could be just a decent starter early on and then settle back into a solid arm. To me, that makes him a good target if you're outside the top 40 starting pitchers and already have a strong rotation foundation.

BUY or SELL: BUY AS LONG AS THE PRICE DOESN'T RISE TOO HIGH

Grayson Rodriguez - SP, Los Angeles Angels

Grayson Rodriguez could not shake the injury bug last season. In March, he was placed on the IL with right elbow inflammation, and it seemed like surgery would be on the table. However, the right-hander was certain he would return, only to suffer a lat strain in April that put him on the IL. Then, in July, he re-injured his right elbow and eventually had debridement surgery in August to clean up bone spurs in his elbow.

The concern for me, aside from the elbow issues, is that Rodriguez has now been on the IL three separate times with right lat strains since 2022. When you add in the fact that the Orioles traded him to the Angels this offseason, when his value was near its lowest, that's not a glowing endorsement for what the organization thought of his health. He's now on a worse team with a worse track record of developing pitching, so this is not a situation I want any part of. Sure, I'll draft a share of Rodriguez if he falls into my lap late in drafts, but I can't see taking him inside the top 70 starting pitchers right now.

BUY or SELL: SELL

Joe Musgrove - SP, San Diego Padres

Musgrove got hurt in the NL Wild Card round back in 2024 and then had Tommy John surgery. He started throwing bullpens in August and is apparently on track to return at the start of the season and will not be on any kind of strict innings limit in San Diego, which is good news. I have been a Musgrove fan, relative to the market, in recent years because I think he's just a solid arm who hasn't really been bad since 2019.

However, part of Musgrove's value before injury was his floor. Since the start of the 2021 season, Musgrove has pitched to a 3.20 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 25.5% strikeout rate in 559.1 innings. That's helping you in most formats. Given that he didn't pitch at all last season and is coming off Tommy John surgery at 33 years old, we have to expect regression for Musgrove. Perhaps he's closer to his 3.73 career ERA. Perhaps he's more of a 23% strikeout rate arm. His WHIP will likely inch back up towards 1.20. And we have no idea how deep into games he'll be able to go. If you wanted to take a gamble on that late in 15-team leagues, I can still see the value in his floor, but his profile, coming off an injury, is not as alluring in shallow formats.

BUY or SELL: BUY IN DEEPER FORMATS ONLY

Reynaldo Lopez - SP, Atlanta Braves

Reynaldo Lopez made one start in 2025 before landing on the IL with right shoulder inflammation and eventually undergoing surgery. On a positive note, the surgery revealed no structural damage, only inflammation, and Lopez was back throwing in July. However, by the end of August, it was clear that the Braves weren't going to contend, so the team decided to shut Lopez down.

Given that Lopez has battled injuries for much of his career and has thrown over 66 innings just once since 2019, it's fair to question his health. However, he is also coming off his best season ever in 2024 and has a spot in the Braves rotation with AJ Smith-Shawver, Grant Holmes, and Spencer Schwellenbach also hurt. If Lopez is healthy in spring training, I'm more than fine with using one of my last starting pitcher spots on him and just rolling the dice that I'll get some decent production before he gets hurt again.

BUY or SELL: BUY AS A FLYER

Braxton Garrett - SP, Miami Marlins

Kutter Crawford - SP, Boston Red Sox

Josiah Gray - SP, Washington Nationals

I'm including these guys all together because it's a really quick "sell" for me.

BUY or SELL: SELL

Will miss the start of 2026

Gerrit Cole - SP, New York Yankees

I am considerably lower on Cole than many of my Rotoworld colleagues, and I think that's just me recalibrating from being too willing to draft injured "aces" too early. Cole suffered from right elbow inflammation and a nerve issue in 2024. He was able to pitch most of the year, but then he had elbow soreness in March and underwent Tommy John surgery. Those two issues back-to-back for a pitcher who's 35 years old doesn't make me feel great.

Cole is aiming to return in late May or early June, so, assuming everything goes according to plan, he will still miss two months. When he returns, we have to acknowledge that he wasn't even the same strikeout pitcher before the injury. In 2023, he had a 27% strikeout rate, and that fell to 25.4% in 2024. He's no longer a 30% strikeout rate arm, and we know that he's not going to throw more than about 110-130 innings. From 2021 on, Cole has had a 3.15 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 686 innings, so if we're assuming some post-injury regression, is he a 3.40-3.50 ERA pitcher with a 25% strikeout rate and plus WHIP? That's certainly useful, but it's not a fantasy ace. Add the time missed to that, and I can't take him inside my top 40 pitchers in drafts, and I likely won't be drafting him in any leagues where he just has to sit on my bench for two or more months.

BUY or SELL: BUY AT DISCOUNT IF I HAVE AN IL SPOT

Carlos Rodon - SP, New York Yankees

Cole's teammate is in a bit of a better spot health-wise. Rodón had surgery in October to remove bone spurs in his elbow and was initially expected to be back at the end of May. However, at the end of January, Rodón said that he thought he’d be able to make some spring training appearances, even if he still started the year on the IL. That would be a late-April/early May return in the realm of possibility. So we should be all-in, right?

Well, just remember that Rodón also had left shoulder surgery in 2017, Tommy John surgery in 2019, and a forearm strain in 2023, so there are a lot of shoulder/elbow injuries in his past that we can't ignore. I like Rodón, and I had him ranked inside my top 25 before the elbow surgery. Now, I just can't see him pitching 175 innings, as he did in three of the last four years. That's going to cut into a lot of his productivity, but I could see drafting him outside of the top 40 starting pitchers, especially if I had an IL spot for him to begin the year. From January 15th on, he is being drafted as the 60th starting pitcher in NFBC formats, and while I might not draft him there in a format where I need to hold him on my bench, that would be a great spot in a league with an IL spot.

BUY or SELL: BUY AT DISCOUNT IF I HAVE AN IL SPOT

Zack Wheeler - SP, Philadelphia Phillies

The Wheeler situation is confusing. In August, he was diagnosed with venous thoracic outlet syndrome and a shoulder blood clot. He had surgery at the beginning of September and was given an eight-month timeline for return at the time, which would have put him on track for May, but the team had also indicated they would be cautious with him. Now we're hearing that Wheeler has begun throwing from 75 feet and could be available “near the start of the season.”

The issue here is that "near the start of the season" apparently means anytime between Opening Day and late May. That's a two-month window where we might see Wheeler back on the mound, and then we have to acknowledge that he's coming back from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, which has been tricky for many starting pitchers to do. We know Stephen Strasburg never really made it back to the same pitcher he was, and the best "success" story is Merrill Kelly, who is really an entirely different type of pitcher than Wheeler.

Given the nebulous timeline for Wheeler and the difficult injury to return from, I'm going to be very cautious in approaching him this draft season. Considering his ADP since January 15th has him going as the 36th starting pitcher off the board, inside the top 140 picks, I can't see myself paying that price.

BUY or SELL: SELL

Spencer Schwellenbach - SP, Atlanta Braves

Schwellenbach looked electric in 2025 before suffering a stress fracture in his elbow. The injury was almost assuredly tied to his velocity increase. That's obviously a bit concerning, but I don't think Schwellenbach needs the extra velocity to be an impact starter. He has a deep pitch mix and good command of the zone. I would have also liked to have seen him on the mound at the end of the season, but the Braves made the decision to prioritize rest for him in August when they realized they were too injured to contend for a World Series title. Otherwise, the team had said Schwellenbach would have been able to pitch in September.

I was all set to put Schwellenbach into my top 25, but then word came out the day before pitchers and catchers reported that he was going to be placed on the 60-day IL with elbow inflammation. The Braves stated that they were hoping it was just connected to bone spurs, but he will have surgery and, given last year's injury, I think I have Schwellenbach totally off my draft board now, which makes me sad.

BUY or SELL: SELL

Corbin Burnes - SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

Burnes was diagnosed with ligament damage in his elbow in June of last year and then had Tommy John surgery in the middle of the month. Over the winter, Burnes himself saidthat he was "looking at probably sometime in July" for his return. Specifically, he mentioned the All-Star break, which was also Shane Bieber's target return date last year. We know that Bieber had one setback, which pushed his return date, and he only pitched 40.1 innings last season. We may get the same thing from Burnes. Even if Burnes does come back after the All-Star break, you're likely looking at 10 starts for a pitcher who has 444 strikeouts in his last 452.1 innings. This is not a gamble I'm taking in any redraft formats.

BUY or SELL: SELL

Justin Steele - SP, Chicago Cubs

Steele is another pitcher with an inexact timeline for return. He had internal brace surgery on his elbow back in the middle of April, which should mean he can return to the mound early in the season. In January, we got an update that Steele feels "back to normal," and is planning to report to spring training with the rest of the pitching staff. While that is good news, we know that he's also going to use spring training to ramp up and is unlikely to break camp with the team. That could put him back sometime in late April or in May, much like Zack Wheeler.

So we have a pitcher with a 3.18 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 24.4% strikeout rate in 450 innings since the start of 2022, potentially returning in May. Even if we bake in some regression there, that's a 3.50 ERA type of arm with just under one strikeout per inning pitching for one of the better teams in the NL. You're not rushing to draft that arm early in drafts, but it's a pretty nice addition to your rotation later in drafts. Yet, since January 15th, Steele has been drafted at pick 361 as the 96th starting pitcher off the board. There is no risk at all in taking him there. Would I do it in a league with no IL spot? That would be tough given his vague timeline for return, but there's a chance you're only holding him for more than a month on your bench, which isn't the worst thing in the world to add back a guy who could be a fantasy SP3 or SP4 in 2026.

BUY or SELL: BUY AT A DISCOUNT

Shane Bieber - SP, Toronto Blue Jays

At the end of the 2025 season, I placed Bieber in my top 25 starting pitchers when looking ahead to 2026. He had returned from Tommy John surgery. We saw him pitch, and pitch well, in MLB games, and he looked good in the postseason. This seemed to be a great opportunity to get a former ace at a reduced cost due to an injury he had recovered from. Then Bieber surprisingly picked up his $18 million player option to remain in Toronto, and it was revealed that he was dealing with a forearm strain at the end of the season. Given all the elbow issues that Bieber had in 2023 and 2024 before having surgery, the fact that he was already experiencing forearm soreness has me a bit concerned. I'd still draft him if he fell far in a draft, but I'm not anticipating a fully healthy season from him, so I'm baking that into the cost I'm willing to pay.

We then got an update on February 10th that the Blue Jays planned to have Bieber start the year on the IL because the forearm fatigue impacted his offseason ramp-up. He's fully off my draft boards.

BUY or SELL: SELL

Jared Jones - SP, Pittsburgh Pirates

Jones had an internal brace procedure in May and began throwing in December. We know thathe started throwing bullpens in January and that he "is targeting a timeline of sometime between March and May." There has also been a report that Jones could be used out of the bullpen to start the season, if the Pirates wanted to ramp him up without having him pitch in the minors. That's intriguing because he would still accrue stats for your team if he's pitching around five innings per week out of the bullpen; although, I'm not sure that's how the Pirates will handle it.

Jones was pretty good as a rookie in 2024, posting a 4.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 132 strikeouts in 121 innings. He is predominantly a two-pitch pitcher, and we saw with Spencer Strider last year how hard it can be for pitchers with just two main pitches to return from a procedure like this. Precise command is even more important if you have a limited arsenal, so that could make this a tight needle to thread for Jones. Add in that he saw some velocity inconsistency with his four-seamer fastball in 2024, and it's hard to expect too much from Jones in 2026. That said, if his ADP remains after pick 400 and you have an IL spot, it's not the worst use of a late-round pick.

BUY or SELL: BUY IN IL LEAGUES IF ADP REMAINS DEPRESSED

Jackson Jobe - SP, Detroit Tigers

Clarke Schmidt - SP, New York Yankees

DJ Herz - SP, Washington Nationals

Another quick situation where I'm out on all three.

Jobe had Tommy John surgery in the middle of June and could be back at some point in the second half, but he also had just an 18% strikeout rate in 49 MLB innings last year and needs to optimize his arsenal to get more swing and miss. I'm not waiting until July for that.

Schmidt had internal brace surgery in July of last year, which means he won't return to the Yankees' rotation until around August. Just no way I can draft him in a redraft format with that timeframe.

Herz had a really strong winter season heading into 2025, but then he had a UCL sprain in March and had Tommy John surgery in April. The Nationals are not contending next season, so they are going to prioritize ramping him up and building strength, so he may be out for half the season. His command was also an issue even before the elbow surgery, so that's going to likely be a big concern in 2026.

BUY or SELL: SELL

Syndication: Detroit Free Press
Michael Harris II, Sal Stewart and Luis Robert Jr. are on the rise in our 5x5 player rankings for 2026.

Unclear timeline, but could be healthy in spring training

Pablo Lopez - SP, Minnesota Twins

Pablo Lopez is another pitcher who allegedly could have returned to the mound in September if his team had been in contention. However, unlike some of the others, Lopez wasn't coming off of surgery. Lopez had a lat strain in June and returned in September before dealing with a forearm strain that sidelined him in September, but he should be healthy at the start of the season. His strikeout numbers were down last season, but he did have a 2.74 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 75.2 innings. I think he has more swing-and-miss upside than he showed last year, and I'd expect him to pitch at least 150 solid innings in 2026. Even at that innings ceiling, I have him inside my top 25 starting pitchers, but he has been drafted as the 41st starting pitcher at pick 145, so, at this cost, I'm in.

BUY or SELL: BUY

Nathan Eovaldi - SP, Texas Rangers

It's really two injuries for Eovaldi. The right-hander was shut down in August with a rotator cuff strain, but then also underwent sports hernia surgery during the offseason. Eovaldi has said that he’s fully recovered from the rotator cuff strain and that he's coming into spring training as healthy as he has in years past. That's the key part for me. I don't love drafting pitchers who are coming off a rotator cuff injury; however, Eovaldi has battled arm injuries many times throughout his career. When you draft him, you know that you're getting good production when he's on the mound, but not a full season of innings. That's why his draft cost never gets too high, so I won't be changing the way I draft him in 2026.

BUY or SELL: BUY

Brandon Woodruff - SP, Milwaukee Brewers

Woodruff was supposed to return from shoulder capsule surgery mid-way through the 2025 season, but then he was hit by a line drive in the elbow while pitching in the minors, and then sprained his ankle on the same rehab process. When he did come back, he looked good, posting a 3.20 ERA in 64.2 innings with a 0.91 WHIP and a 32% strikeout rate. A decent amount of that success, in my opinion, was because of his new cutter, which gives him three fastball variations that attack hitters from similar release points, but with different movement profiles. That can be devastatingly confusing for a hitter.

The downside is that Woodruff suffered a lat strain in September and missed the postseason. The team claims that the lat strain is in no way connected to the previous shoulder capsule surgery, but having so many injuries to the shoulder area is concerning. I'm willing to bet that Woodruff will be good again in 2026. I'm just not willing to count on him for more than around 120-130 innings. Given that he is currently being drafted as the 30th starting pitcher at pick 121, that's a cost I may not be willing to pay up for.

BUY or SELL: SELL AT CURRENT COST

Kris Bubic - SP, Kansas City Royals

Kris Bubic is in a similar boat, in my mind, to Woodruff. He was really good in 2025, but suffered a rotator cuff strain in July and missed the remainder of the season. He has also dealt with shoulder injuries and Tommy John surgery in previous years, which is why he has never pitched more than 130 innings in an MLB season. I think Bubic is a talented pitcher, and I think he'll be in the Royals' rotation to start the season, but I'm not banking on more than 130 innings from him so there will have to be a discount if I'm going to take him, and I'd prefer he not be one of the top four starting pitchers on my team.

BUY or SELL: BUY IF THERE'S A DISCOUNT

Kodai Senga - SP, New York Mets

I think I'm going to be fully in on Senga this year, especially at his cost. The right-hander suffered a hamstring injury in June, which sidelined him for a month. After he returned, his performance was inconsistent, and the Mets were struggling to hold onto a playoff spot, so the team sent him to the minors in August. However, despite those struggles after his hamstring injury, Senga still posted a 3.02 ERA in 113 innings. Yes, it came with a 1.31 WHIP and a 23% strikeout rate. That's not bad production when you factor in the second-half struggles. His strikeout rate was only 24% in the first half, before the injury, which isn't great, but he had a 1.13 WHIP, so there's a good chance that he'll still be a solid source of ratios on a strong Mets team. And what happens if he regains the 29% strikeout rate from 2023? He still has that elite Ghost Fork, none of his injuries were to his arm, and we know he has a spot in the rotation. That's a gamble I'll take.

BUY or SELL: BUY

Grant Holmes - SP, Atlanta Braves

In August, Holmes was diagnosed with a partial UCL tear. Instead of opting for surgery, Holmes decided on a non-surgical rest or rehab path. Atlanta is claiming that Holmes is fully healthy and will be full-go for Spring Training. I know that Holmes has said he feels better than he did last year, but this feels like a grenade that could go off at any time, with an upside that's not high enough for the risk.

BUY or SELL: SELL

Spencer Arrighetti - SP, Houston Astros

Much like with Shane Bieber, I was in on Arrighetti when the 2025 season immediately ended. This was a pitcher who impressed us in 2024 and was going as a top 50 starting pitcher heading into 2025. Then he fractured the thumb on his pitching hand when he was hit with a ball during batting practice. That sidelined him for four months, and he didn't look like the same pitcher when he returned. Yet, that's to be expected since the thumb is so crucial to grip and spin for pitchers. I was ready to throw all of 2025 out the window and jump back on the Arrighetti train.

Then I saw a note that reminded me that Arrighetti ended the season on the IL with an elbow strain. It was something he didn't have to get surgery for, andhe was back throwing bullpens by January. He claims he'll be ready for the start of spring training, but he also isn't guaranteed a spot in the rotation after the Astros signed Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows, and Ryan Weiss to add to a group that also includes Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Lance McCullers Jr. If we add Arrighetti, that's seven arms competing for five spots. Considering Arrighetti doesn't have a long MLB track record, and our enthusiasm for him in 2025 was based on perceived growth, a full year lost to an injury and an offseason spent rehabbing instead of developing new skills, is likely to put me off Arrighetti in 2026.

BUY or SELL: SELL

Zach Eflin - SP, Baltimore Orioles

It was a tough season for Eflin, who suffered a lat strain in April and then landed on the IL again in June with a lower back injury. He returned after a month but only pitched in two games before landing on the IL with a back injury again. He would eventually undergo a lumbar microdiscectomy to fix a nerve-related disc issue in his back over the offseason. On one hand, he wasn't dealing with an arm issue. On the other hand, back injuries for a 32-year-old are a bit concerning. Still, it was a disc issue that was corrected via surgery, so I don't imagine he'll have many residual issues in 2026. Over his two healthy seasons in the AL East, he's essentially been a 3.50 ERA pitcher with a 22% strikeout rate and 1.10 WHIP. That will play in most formats, and that's why I expect him to get back to that level in 2026.

BUY or SELL: BUY

Other Injured Starting Pitchers

Max Meyer - Miami Marlins:SELL
Hunter Dobbins - St. Louis Cardinals:BUY IN DEEPER FORMATS
Richard Fitts - St. Louis Cardinals:BUY IN DEEPER FORMATS
Sawyer Gipson-Long - Detroit Tigers:SELL
Jacob Lopez - Athletics:SELL
Patrick Sandoval - Boston Red Sox:SELL

Today in White Sox History: February 12

BOSTON, MA - APRIL 19: Danny Mendick #20 of the Chicago White Sox pitches in the eighth inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on April 19, 2021 in Boston, Massachusetts.
On this day six years ago, MLB tried to restrict how and when players like Danny Mendick could pitch. But as this 2021 game proves, Danny’s arm would not be repressed. | (Photo by Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)

1955
Chet Lemon, who would become the best defensive center fielder in White Sox history, was born in Jackson, Miss.

Moving to Los Angeles at a young age, Lemon played youth baseball with Hall-of-Famers Eddie Murray and Ozzie Smith, and was drafted in the first round out of high school at age 17 by Oakland. However, just three years later the A’s shipped Lemon and Dave Hamilton to the White Sox for Stan Bahnsen and Skip Pitlock. (The shortsightedness of the deal can be forgiven in that Oakland was trying for a fourth consecutive World Series title.)

Ironically, the future defensive wizard was poor with the glove at his drafted positions, shortstop-third base. After the White Sox acquired him and Chuck Tanner noticed how aggressive Lemon was at third base in his short call-up to the White Sox in 1975, the White Sox moved him to center — where he had played just 10 games in his life.

After a strong rookie year in 1976 that saw Lemon make the Topps Rookie All-Star Team, he exploded in 1977. At just age 22, Lemon slugged with the best of the South Side Hit Men (38 doubles, 19 homers, .804 OPS). Moreover, he set AL records for both putouts (411) and chances (431) — records that have yet to be broken.

Lemon remained the best two-way player on the White Sox and was at times the only star on the roster during the lean years of the late 1970s and early 1980s. After agreeing to a contract extension but then pulling out after the White Sox signed Carlton Fisk in 1981 to a bigger deal, the White Sox shipped Lemon to the Detroit Tigers after the 1981 season. He went on to win a World Series with Detroit in 1984.

For his major league career, Lemon ranks ninth all-time in range factor in center field (2.83) and 29th all-time as an outfielder overall (2.65). JAWS ranks Lemon as the 21st-best center fielder ever to play the game.

In White Sox annals, Lemon is the 18th-best position player all-time (24.9 WAR) and ranks 16th in offensive win percentage (.610).


1981
Marc Hill signed with the White Sox, as a backup catcher to … Jim Essian. At the time, Hill probably figured to get an increase in playing time from his days in San Francisco. But there was a twist to that plan, as on this very same day Carlton Fisk was granted his freedom after the Boston Red Sox goofed on sending him his 1981 contract.

Fisk signed with the White Sox a month later, dropping Hill to third on the catching depth chart. He never played in more than 77 games or saw more than 209 plate appearances in a season, and wrapped up his playing career with the White Sox in 1986 having accumulated -0.6 WAR over 266 games.


2010
After spending the 2009 season waiting for a call from any of 30 teams, White Sox slugger Frank Thomas signs a one-day contract with his home club and officially announces his retirement.

Frank spent the first 16 seasons of his career in Chicago, accumulating a team second-best 73.8 WAR and still ranking in the Top 10 in a number of all-time White Sox categories:

  • 74.9 offensive WAR (1st)
  • .427 on-base percentage (1st)
  • .568 slugging percentage (1st)
  • .995 OPS (1st)
  • 161 OPS+ (1st)
  • 1,327 runs (1st)
  • 447 doubles (1st)
  • 448 home runs (1st)
  • 906 extra base hits (1st)
  • 1,465 RBIs (1st)
  • 1,466 walks (1st)
  • 68.3 WAR (2nd)
  • 3,949 total bases (2nd)
  • 3,673 times on base (2nd)
  • 15.5 AB/HR (2nd)
  • 2,136 hits (4th)
  • 1,959 games (4th)
  • 1,230 singles (7th)
  • .307 batting average (tied for 10th)

He finished in the Top 8 of AL MVP voting for the first eight full seasons of his career, winning the award outright in 1993 and 1994. He had a third MVP essentially stolen from him in 2000 by Jason Giambi, who later admitted to taking steroids in his award-winning year. And perhaps most extraordinary in terms of award achievements is the fact that the year after Thomas left the White Sox (2006), his comeback season saw him finish fourth in MVP voting — at age 38.

For his full career, Thomas hit better than .300 (.301) with an .974 OPS and 156 OPS+. He led all of baseball for at least one season in games, runs, doubles, walks, on-base percentage, OPS, OPS+, sacrifice flies and intentional walks.

Thomas was elected to the Hall of Fame on his first ballot, in 2014, earning 83.7% of the vote. Through the 2023 season, Thomas still sits high on many all-time career leaderboards:

  • 1,667 walks (10th)
  • 4.79 MVP shares (14th)
  • .974 OPS (18th)
  • 521 home runs (20th)
  • .419 on-base percentage (22nd)
  • .555 slugging percentage (23rd)
  • 156 OPS+ (25th)
  • 1,704 RBIs (26th)
  • 1,028 extra-base hits (33rd)
  • 15.7 AB/HR (34th)
  • 4,222 times on base (35th)
  • 80.4 offensive WAR (38th)
  • 4,550 total bases (47th)
  • 73.8 WAR (56th among position players, 88th overall)
  • 495 doubles (70th)
  • 1,494 runs (76th)

Coincidentally, Thomas’ fellow future Hall-of-Famer Tom Glavine also announced his retirement on this day.

The White Sox would honor Thomas with a retired number and ceremony before the Aug. 29, 2010 game against the Yankees.


2020
Despite questions growing over the likelihood of the season being dramatically affected by the growing pandemic, MLB announced its new rules:

  • No more LOOGYs (minimum of three batters faced for relief pitchers)
  • Active rosters expanded to 26 players, but no more than 13 pitchers
  • September call-ups limited to two players, expanding rosters to 28, with no more than 14 pitchers
  • Position players pitching limitations
  • 15-day injured lists for pitchers, 10-day lists for position players

The 2020 season would not be cancelled, but would be severely limited by the pandemic, with no fans in attendance, a delay of the start of the season, just 60 regular season games, and expanded playoffs.

Rise and Phight: 2/12/2026

Jul 21, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) throws a pitch during the second inning against the Boston Red Sox at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images | Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

Spring training is officially here, and with it comes the unfortunate slew of new injury updates. Hamate bone fractures seem to be an epidemic around baseball already. Orion Kerkering has a hamstring strain that will cause him to be a little behind the other pitchers. Zack Wheeler is progressing well and has a rib in his closet. Spring is almost here!

Phillies news:

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