Category: Baseball

The Cubs front office sure was busy on Monday.

Not counting the Jameson Taillon deal, who was the subtraction of a player who had already been designated for assignment, the Cubs added five major leaguers in four separate trades. This cost the Cubs seven minor league players, six of whom still had prospect eligibility.

Because five of those six players were among my Top 25 prospects mid-season update, it’s probably time to update that as well. But before I do that, I wanted to give a summary of the players the Cubs lost.

Pretty much all of the position players the Cubs dealt were “blocked” at the major league level. Take infielder Jefferson Rojas, whom I had ranked as the Cubs No. 2 prospect. I’m very high on Rojas. He’s a 21-year-old succeeding in Double-A. I think he has the upside of a quality major league starter. I don’t think Rojas is a shortstop, but he could be an above-average defender at second or third base. He could be a guy who hits .265 with around 20 home runs and 20 steals.

But the Cubs already have a second and a third baseman under contract for the next several seasons and even if Hoerner or Bregman falter, Rojas has been surpassed in the organization by Pedro Ramírez. Then there’s Matt Shaw, who would also rank higher than Rojas. Did the Cubs get full value back for Rojas in two rental players? Maybe not, but they got 90 cents on the dollar. Plus, the Cubs had to trade Rojas sooner rather than later. His value wasn’t likely to increase until he could prove himself on the major league level, something he was very unlikely to get in Chicago. Players in the bottom half of Top 100 prospects lists generally only pan out as good major leaguers about a third of the time, anyway.

Would I have liked to get a controllable starter back for Rojas? Definitely, but there was only one real controllable starter dealt (José Soriano) and he went for a whole lot more than Jefferson Rojas. The Cubs got arguably the second-best available rental starting pitcher in Clay Holmes for him, plus a rental outfielder in Tyrone Taylor who has crushed lefties this year.

Then there’s Moisés Ballesteros, who went along with Mason McGwire for a controllable pitcher, albeit a reliever in Ryan Zeferjahn. Despite his slump from May that got him sent down to the minors, I still believe in Mo Baller’s left-handed bat. It’s a sweet stroke and he loves to dump line drives into the left-center and right-center gaps. His post-April struggles were real as he was hitting the ball into the ground way too much and was not able to pull those inside pitches like he had been previously. But I’m confident he’ll figure things out eventually.

But like Rojas, where was Ballesteros going to play on the Cubs? He’s simply not a good defensive catcher and I don’t think he ever will be. For a while he was improving, but that’s plateaued. He has not gotten any better down in Iowa this year. And if he’s not a catcher, what is he? At 5’8”, you need a lot of infielders with very accurate arms to play him at first. If he has to DH, he’s a guy who hits .280 with a .340 OBP and 20 home runs and 35 doubles. Is that good enough for a full-time DH? Maybe. Maybe not. And that’s close to a best-case scenario.

Ballesteros has also been passed in the Cubs organization by the development of Owen Ayers, who is someone who really can stay behind the plate. That’s another reason Mo Baller was expendable.

Jonathon Long, who went to the Marlins for a controllable starter (albeit one who’s in the minor leagues) in Braxton Garrett, is similarly blocked. He can maybe give you a few games in left field, but he’s a first baseman with 55 power. Like Ballesteros, that’s more like 15-to-20 home runs a year than 30 or more. His hit tool is at least average, but he’s also right-handed and all other things being equal, teams prefer a left-handed first baseman. Long was never going to push Michael Busch off of first base, so the Cubs might as well deal him now. If Garrett returns to what he was before Tommy John surgery, then the Cubs got a great deal.

Right-hander Jace Beck was a guy the Cubs signed as a minor league free agent over the winter after he was released from the Mets organization. I don’t know what the Cubs did to him, but he started striking out a ton of batters in Double-A Knoxville, which got him on some prospect lists. He hasn’t repeated that success since his promotion to Iowa, but it’s still a small sample size. Beck combines a mid-90s fastball with a solid splitter. Unless he can improve his slider, he’s probably a reliever. But the Cubs did great to sign someone over the winter for a minor-league salary and then flip him in a deal for a controllable starter like Garrett.

As far as the other players the Cubs traded before the Deadline, right-hander Mason McGwire is better known for his father than his pitching right now, but he has turned himself into a real prospect, which he definitely didn’t look like his first two years in the organization. He missed all of 2025 with an injury and when he returned this year, his curveball had a much better shape and he had much better control of it. Despite having a starting pitcher’s frame, I think McGwire is destined for the bullpen unless he can find a new pitch to get lefties out. My biggest regret on trading McGwire is that his father vowed to come to Wrigley Field in Cubs gear if he made the majors and that would have made Cardinals fans’ heads explode. I don’t think they’ll mind him in Angels gear.

The Blue Jays have a type, apparently, as they got two very similar profiles in Brett Bateman and Ty Southisene. Both are short, high-contact guys with close to zero power and plus speed. They are both good defenders. They’re also both Asian-American, which is probably just a coincidence but some commenters on the Blue Jays board were very excited about that. Their lack of power, and the fact that Southisene probably isn’t a pure shortstop although he can play there, means both are likely bench players in the major leagues, if they even make it there.

So that’s what the Cubs have lost. What does their farm system look like now? It’s down, of course. You don’t lose one of your Top 100 prospects without taking a hit in the rankings. But Rojas was the only player the Cubs dealt who was among my Top Ten Cubs prospects in the mid-season update, although Ballesteros would have clearly also been in the top ten if he still had prospect eligibility. He’d probably rank fourth, just behind the emerging Ayers.

So here is my updated list of the Cubs top 25 prospects. New players on the list are in boldface.

1. Josiah Hartshorn OF/1B
2. Owen Ayers C
3. Kane Kepley OF
4. Cade Townsend RHP
5. Jaxon Wiggins RHP
6. Kaleb Wing RHP
7. Ethan Conrad OF
8. Caden Sorrell OF
9. James Triantos 2B/OF
10. Myles Bailey 1B
11. Brooks Caple RHP
12. Dominick Reid RHP
13. Juan Cabada 2B
14. Jose Escobar 2B/LF
15. Grant Kipp RHP
16. Jostin Florentino RHP
17. Carson Jasa RHP
18. Derniche Valdez SS
19. Nazier Mulé RHP
20. Will Sanders RHP
21. Pierce Coppola LHP
22. Luis Martinez-Gomez RHP
23. Logan Poteet C
24. Angel Cepeda SS
25. Brody McCullough RHP

Valdez is an interesting case and I moved him up to 18 because he was a highly-regarded international signing who just didn’t hit his first three years in the system and dropped off of all prospect lists. However, a little over a month ago, Valdez got glasses and since then he’s been tearing the cover off the ball. So if the reason he couldn’t hit was that he couldn’t see, then he becomes an interesting prospect again. We still have to wait a bit to see that this isn’t just a fluke, but it’s a promising development.

Martinez-Gomez is a fastball/splitter pitcher who has taken a step forward with his control this year, which was what was keeping him off of prospect lists before. There’s a lot of reliever risk here, but there’s also some back-end starter potential.

Poteet makes the list because he’s hit 18 home runs this year and has the defensive skills to stick behind the plate. There are, however, some major hit tool questions as Poteet has been striking out at a 37 percent clip since his promotion to High-A South Bend. He has to cut that down to be a major leaguer.

Cepeda is someone who has made some strides in pitch selection this year, which has led to more walks and fewer strikeouts. He still has a long ways to go in that department, but his plus glove at short will buy him the time to work on that.

McCullough doesn’t have much that wows you, but he’s got a starter’s body and a starter’s arsenal and the chance to be a back-end starter. He missed all of last year with elbow surgery, but he’s back now and putting in a solid performance with Double-A.

In the fourth episode of the second season of Star Trek, the crew members of the good ship Enterprise find themselves confronted with evil doppelgängers from another dimension. Though only Spock’s malicious counterpart had a beard, with the sinister versions of James T. Kirk, Dr. McCoy, and others remaining clean-shaven, the idea of evil imitators having facial hair has made its way into pop culture. If either Luis Arraez or Kyle Schwarber were beardless, this would work very well as a lede for this article about the two of them being mirror-universe versions of each other. But they both have facial hair, so that’s right out. Oh well. Worth a shot.

Anyway, Luis Arraez is the Anti-Schwarber. Or Kyle Schwarber is the Anti-Arraez. The anti-parallels (perpendiculars?) between their games are obvious: Schwarber strikes out a ton, but sends the ball to rendezvous with the rovers on Mars with when he does hit it, while Arraez strikes out roughly as often as blue moons appear on a leap year Friday the 13th, but doesn’t have a whole lot of power. But even knowing that, the extent to which the two are inverses of each other is shocking (all stats prior to last night’s game):

Just about the only place they don’t diverge is in Launch Angle Sweet Spot; they’re both about as good as the other at hitting the ball in the optimal launch angle range. But in every other regard, they’re just about polar opposites.

Just by eyeballing the chart above (or a couple of at-bats from each), you get the picture. But we can also quantify their lack of similarity: Baseball Savant offers a Player Similarity tool that provides a numerical comparison based on batting profile (contact stats, walks, strikeouts), with numbers closer to 1 indicating greater similarity. For example, the players most similar to Kyle Schwarber are Nick Kurtz (.78), Owen Caissie (.73), and Munetaka Murakami (.72). The players most similar to Luis Arraez are Ernie Clement (.74) and Javier Sanoja (0.73).

By default, the tool will only show you the players with a similarity score of at least 0.7. For most players, this produces a busy but manageable visual, like so:

(If you’re wondering, each colored circle represents a different batting input, e.g. red represents barrel rate). And for players with highly unusual profiles—the unicorns of the league— you get a very tidy look at the very small number of players who can truly compare.

But if you want to find Arraez on Schwarber’s diagram, or vice-versa, you have to widen the criteria to show players who are much less similar. Much, much less similar. And once you’ve adjusted the settings sufficiently, you see this:

This resembles nothing more than one of those galaxy maps projected onto a planetarium dome; perhaps someday our finest scientists will send a probe to planet Pete Crow-Armstrong. But once you’ve gotten over the awe-inspiring chaos of the diagram, you can find out just how un-similar Arraez and Schwarber are.

Kyle Schwarber isn’t the least Arraez-esque player in the league. That would be Esmerlyn Valdez, a prospect who’s played 45 games for the Pirates this year, with a score of .03. Among league regulars, the least Arraez-like is Elly De La Cruz, with an .04. But Kyle Schwarber isn’t all that much closer to Arraezhood: with an .07, he ranks 413th on the similarity chart. Arraez isn’t the least Schwarberlike player in the league, but he’s close: only Chandler Simpson of the Rays is further away.

You already know the difference in barrel rate, walk rate and strikeout rate from the first table, but here’s a closer look at the contact inputs that go into that lack of similarity:

The difference in those numbers don’t leap out quite as much as the gaps in walk and strikeout rate, but Schwarber is over twice as likely to make solid contact as Arraez, and about half as likely to make weak contact.

Nothing you have read in this article is likely to come as any surprise. But perhaps that itself should come as no surprise. Everywhere you look in literature, film, art, you’ll see the idea of the mirror image, the inverted doppelgänger, the evil twin…

I could’ve started this with an evil Twin joke. Damn.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (58-50) won 4-3 (BOX SCORE)

Sugar Land got on the board in the first inning scoring 2 runs on a Delgado RBI double and Loperfido RBI single. They got another run in the 4th inning on a Brooks solo home run. Hendrickson got the start and pitched well allowing 1 run over 5.2 innings. Alexander added another run in the 6th on an RBI single. Ullola allowed 2 runs but Munoz closed the door in the 9th as Sugar Land won 4-3.

Note: Loperfido is hitting .305 in Triple-A.

• Cavan Biggio, 3B: 1-for-4, R, BB
• Ray Delgado, 2B: 1-for-5, R, 2B, RBI
• Joey Loperfido, RF: 2-for-4, R, RBI, SB
• CJ Alexander, DH: 1-for-4, RBI
• Trenton Brooks, 1B: 1-for-4, R, HR, RBI

• Josh Hendrickson, LHP: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K (WIN)
• Michael Knorr, RHP: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Miguel Ullola, RHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
• Roddery Munoz, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K (SAVE)

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (49-54) won 8-7 (BOX SCORE)

The Hooks got on the board in the 2nd inning scoring 3 runs on RBI singles from Nunez, Holy and Gomez. They got another run in the third on a Schiavone RBI double. In the 4th, the offense scored 3 runs on an Encarnacion RBI single and Janek 2 run single. Mancini got the start and went 3.2 innings allowing 3 runs. The pen allowed 3 runs in the 6th as the Drillers closed the gap. The Drillers tied things up in the 9th. The game went to extra innings and in the 10th, the Hooks walked it off on a Nunez RBI single.

Note: Encarnacion has 47 stolen bases this season.

• Yamal Encarnacion, RF: 2-for-5, R, RBI, SB
• Walker Janek, C: 2-for-5, R, 2B, RBI, SB
• Jason Schiavone, DH: 1-for-4, 2B, RBI, BB
• Will Bush, 1B: 1-for-5, R
• Cameron Sisneros, LF: 1-for-4, R
• Alejandro Nunez, 2B: 3-for-4, R, RBI, BB
• Max Holy, SS: 1-for-3, R, RBI, BB
• Kenni Gomez, CF: 2-for-4, R, RBI

• Joey Mancini, RHP: 3.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 1 K
• Jose Guedez, RHP: 1.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• Alex Santos, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• Railin Perez, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• Amilcar Chirinos, RHP: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
• Alejandro Torres, RHP: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K (WIN)

A+: Asheville Tourists (34-68) won 5-2 (BOX SCORE)

Asheville got on the board in the second inning on a Monistere RBI single. They got another run in the 3rd on a Neyens RBI single. Santos got the start and went 4 innings allowing 1 run. The pen allowed a run as the Dash tied it at 2 and the game went to extra innings. In the 10th, Frey connected on a 3 run home run to take the lead. Langford tossed a scoreless 10th to close out the 5-2 win.

Note: Frey is hitting .333 with 4 home runs over his last 13 games.

• Justin Thomas, DH: 0-for-4, R, BB, SB
• Xavier Neyens, DH: 1-for-3, R, RBI, 2 BB, SB
• Ethan Frey, CF: 2-for-5, R, 2B, HR, 3 RBI
• Kyle Walker, 2B: 0-for-2, R, BB, SB
• Nick Monistere, SS: 1-for-4, R, RBI

• Yeriel Santos, RHP: 4.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 6 K
• Anthony Cruz, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
• Andrew Marrero, RHP: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• Grayson Saunier, RHP: 2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K (WIN)
• Colby Langford, LHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K (SAVE)

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (52-49) lost 10-4 (BOX SCORE)

The Woodpeckers got on the board in the first inning on a De Leon RBI single. Fraide got the start and went 3.2 innings allowing 3 runs, with all three coming in the first inning. Luciano connected on a 2 run home run in the 2nd inning to tie the game at 3. After the Woodpeckers got a run in the 5th on an Alvarez RBI single, Salem took the lead scoring 5 runs off Varela. Rosario allowed a couple runs in relief and the offense was unable to score again as the Woodpeckers fell 10-4.

Note: Luciano has a .878 OPS in Single-A this season.

• Waner Luciano, 3B: 2-for-4, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI
• Josh Wakefield, RF: 0-for-3, R, SB
• Kevin Alvarez, CF: 1-for-4, RBI
• Luis De Leon, C: 1-for-4, RBI
• Hector Salas, 2B: 1-for-3, R, SB

• Juan Fraide, RHP: 3.2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 3 K
• Jose Varela, RHP: 3.0 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
• Leomar Rosario, RHP: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 2 K

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Brandon McPherson – 7:35 CT

CC: Cole Hertzler – 6:35 CT

AV: TBD – 5:30 CT

FV: TBD – 5:35 CT

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All 30 MLB teams take the field today, starting with the Los Angeles Dodgers in Chi-Town and finishing with the Tigers taking on the Mariners in Seattle.

Our experts have looked across the slate to deliver you their favorite MLB picks on the board; among them is the Boys in Blue bouncing back after losing Tarik Skubal's first start as a Dodger last night.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Jon Metler: Dodgers moneyline	+113
Joe Osborne: Brewers moneyline	-130

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Jon Metler's expert pick: Dodgers moneyline

Price: 47¢ (+113) at Polymarket

How can you not be romantic about baseball? Just one day after fading the Los Angeles Dodgers with Tarik Skubal on the mound and cashing a +190 ticket on the Chicago Cubs, we're right back on L.A. with Eric Lauer getting the start. That's the beauty of sports betting — it's all about price, not loyalty.

Shota Imanaga takes the ball for Chicago, and while a left-handed starter might appear to be a difficult matchup for Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Kyle Tucker, his pitch sequencing actually plays into their strengths. Imanaga depends on locating his four-seam fastball at the top of the zone to set up his splitter, but L.A.'s left-handed hitters have the bat control to consistently handle elevated fastballs. Polymarket has L.A. as a 47-cent underdog, but I make the Dodgers a 52-cent favorite, which is why I'm hitting the button.

• Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
• How to watch: SNLA, MARQ

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Brewers moneyline

Price: 56¢ (-130) at Polymarket

Fade Paul Skenes Day? Sure. The Milwaukee Brewers are in a strong position to take care of business at home tonight. Skenes has started to unravel, posting a 6.25 ERA across six July starts, while Pittsburgh has gone an almost unbelievable 3-11 in his last 14 outings. His road ERA also sits at 4.56, more than a full run higher than at home.

This Pittsburgh Pirates offense has been ice cold since the All-Star break and especially bad lately, producing a brutal .571 OPS over the past week. Meanwhile, Kyle Harrison owns a remarkable 1.56 ERA in nine home starts and struck out a season-high 12 Pirates when he faced them in April.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: SNP, Brewers.TV

More MLB best bets for today

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Lehigh Valley IronPigs 10, Worcester Red Sox 5 (BOX)

The IronPigs (PHI) went up 5-0 early, due to a short outing from starter Blake Wehunt, who allowed seven hits and three earned in three innings to get the loss. A slew of base hits in the middle innings helped the Woo Sox cut the lead to 6-5 after six innings, before Lehigh Valley ran away with it.

Three-hit days from Franklin Arias and Allan Castro, along with a two-hit day from Andrew Knizner, contributed to a 12-hit effort from Worcester in the loss. Arias is now 10-for-35 (.286) since his Triple-A promotion, picking right up where he left off. Kristian Campbell had three more productive plate appearances, with a single, a walk, and a sacrifice fly. He’s slashing .389/.514/.537 over his past 18 games.

It should be noted that Angel Bastardo threw another shutout inning, with two strikeouts. While his ERA sits at 4.20 on the season, he’s thrown nine straight shutout innings (six appearances), with no walks and 18 strikeouts.

John Holobetz (1-0, 1.59) gets the ball on Wednesday at 6:45 for Worcester.

New Hampshire Fisher Cats 6, Portland Sea Dogs 4 (BOX)

Much like Worcester, the Sea Dogs fell behind early on Tuesday before clawing back. Jeremy Wu-Yelland threw two clean innings as the opener before the bullpen struggled, with Caleb Bolden getting the loss due to a four-run third inning for the Fisher Cats (TOR).

Home runs from Portland’s Johanfran Garcia (13th) and Miguel Bleis (10th) got Portland back in it, with Bleis totaling three hits, two runs, and two RBI on the evening.

Portland has not announced a starter for the 12:05 matinee on Wednesday.

Greenville Drive 12, Hudson Valley Renegades 6 (BOX)

The Drive were swinging the Styx against the Renegades (NYY) on Tuesday, led by recent second-round draft pick Owen Hull. Hull has multiple hits in each of his first three games, and on Tuesday he had a double, and a three-run home run that went over the 420 sign in center field.

Justin Gonzales and Antonio Anderson also had multi-hit days for the Drive. Starter Alex Bouchard struck out seven and allowed one run, but did not go long enough for the win. Steven Brooks was the only effective reliever and was credited with the win by the official scorer despite closing out the game.

Marcus Phillips (0-5, 6.54) will take the hill for the Drive on Wednesday at 6:45.

Salem RidgeYaks 10, Fayetteville Woodpeckers 4 (BOX)

The RidgeYaks put up a ten-spot on Tuesday, with hits coming from the top and bottom of the lineup. Louis Andujar started things off with a two-run home run in the first. Kleyver Salazar, Andrews Opata, and Avinson Pinto all had two hits on the day, with Pinto stealing two bases as well.

Yermain Ruiz picked up the win against the Woodpeckers (HOU), throwing three innings and not allowing an earned run. Harry Blum got an eight-out save, his third.

The RidgeYaks send Brady Tygart (3-1, 5.06) to the bump on Wednesday at 6:35.

Columbus Clippers 15, Syracuse Mets 7

Clippers improve to 58-50

The Columbus Clippers offense erupted for 15 runs on 16 hits and eight walks Tuesday in an absolute beatdown of Somerset. Leading the charge was top infield prospect Angel Genao, who blasted two home runs (both over 100 mph exit velocity) while going 2-for-5 with a walk in the victory.

Also homering was Ralphy Velazquez, who has been heating up of late. Velazquez went 3-for-5 with his eight homer at Triple-A.

Kahlil Watson was perfect at the plate, going 4-for-4 with a double while George Valera went 2-for-5 with a home run and a walk and the newly-acquired Blake Perkins tripled. Coopre Ingle went 2-for-5 with a double and a walk.

Starting pitcher Austin Peterson allowed four runs (one earned) on five hits with three strikeouts and no walks in 6.0 innings.

Ryan Webb allowed one run and Hunter Stanley allowed two runs in their lone innings of work while Daniel Espino pitched a perfect inning with two strikeouts.

Akron RubberDucks 17, Somerset Patriots 3

RubberDucks improve to 48-54

It wasn’t just Columbus that had a huge day offensively on Tuesday. Akron also went off with 17 runs on 13 hits and 11 walks.

Leading the charge was Nolan Schubart, who went 4-for-6 with a double. Maick Collado also had a huge game, going 4-for-6 with a double and four RBIs. Ryan Cesarini went 2-for-3 with a double, two walks and a stolen base and Bennett Thompson went 1-for-4 with a walk, a hit by pitch and a stolen base.

Aaron Walton reached base safely four times, walking three times and getting hit by a pitch while Jaison Chourio doubled and had three RBIs.

Starting pitcher Rafe Schlesinger was rock solid, allowing two runs on six hits in 6.0 innings with six strikeouts and four walks.

Jack Jasiack and Adam Tulloch both pitched a scoreless inning of relief.

Lake County Captains 6, Lansing Lugnuts 7

Captains fall to 54-45

A late rally from Lake County fell just short on Tuesday.

Welbyn Francisca had the lone multi-hit game, going 2-for-5 with a pair of doubles. Cannon Peebles also had an excellent game, going 1-for-2 with a home run and two walks.

Jonah Advincula tripled, Garrett Howe went 1-for-3 with a walk and both Esteban Gonzalez and Luis De La Cruz doubled, with Gonzalez stealing a base.

Starting pitcher Ben Lively’s rehab continued with two runs allowed on four hits in 2.2 innings with three strikeouts and a walk.

Will McCausland piggybacked with Lively, allowing five runs on six hits in 5.1 innings while striking out three and walking one.

Hill City Howlers 3, Wilson Warbirds 6

Howlers fall to 43-60

Riley Nelson went 1-for-2 with a double and two walks to lead the way for Hill City offensively. Jonathan Martinez went 2-for-4 with two doubles while Johan Rodriguez homered and Alejandro Blasco tripled.

Starting pitcher Aden Major allowed two runs on four hits in 5.2 innings with five strikeouts and one walk.

Luis Torres followed by allowing four runs in 1.1 innings to take the loss. Aaron Savary impressed in 2.0 innings of perfect relief with three strikeouts.

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The New York Yankees picked up a shutout victory Tuesday night, and they're -150 favorites to take today's rubber match.

With St. Louis spiralling offensively, my Cardinals vs. Yankees predictions see value in backing the home team to pick up another low-scoring win.

Let's break it all down with my MLB picks on Wednesday, Aug. 5.

Who will win Cardinals vs Yankees today: New York Yankees (-155)

Will Warren's indicators (3.58 xFIP, 4.06 SIERA) suggest he has pitched better than his results (6.05 ERA) over the last month, and this is a good spot for the tide to turn.

The St. Louis Cardinals have struggled mightily to produce against righties, ranking dead last in wOBA and OPS during that span.

The New York Yankees have the better and more in-form bullpen, so there won’t be any soft spots where the Cardinals have an advantage at the plate.

I’d play the Yankees to -160.

COVERS INTEL:Warren's much-improved 24.1% fly-ball rate over the past month gives him a better chance of keeping the ball in the park.

Cardinals vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+100)

Warren’s Achilles' heel is conceding power, and that shouldn’t be much of an issue against the Cardinals. 

They own a putrid .090 ISO and sit 29th in HR/FB against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days.

While the Yankees have hit for some power, Andre Pallante’s 96th-percentile ground-ball rate will help take that out of the equation.

The power has also come at a high cost in terms of strikeouts, with no team punching out at a higher clip the past month.

I see a ton of value on this Under, and would bet it to -130.

Cardinals vs Yankees weather

The forecast calls for temperatures hovering around 80, with winds blowing West. Small bump to the bats.

Cardinals vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Cardinals +135 | Yankees -155
• Run line: Cardinals +1.5 (-150) | Yankees -1.5 (+130)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)

Cardinals vs Yankees trend

New York has hit the Game Total Under in 25 of the last 40 games (+8.70 units, 20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Yankees.

How to watch Cardinals vs Yankees and game info

Cardinals vs Yankees latest injuries

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One of the commenters on the Daulton Varsho lab asked if I would do a lab on Trevor Larnach. Usually, I don’t pay much attention to what hasn’t been done, but multiple reports have now indicated that a deal was in place to send Bryan Abreu to the Twins in exchange for Larnach. According to all of those sources, Jim Crane nixed the deal. Before I dive into numbers, we should probably look at the differences between the two deals.

Everyone has opined about the Varsho deal. The primary criticism is that you traded away a pitcher with years of control (can become a free agent following the 2029 season) for a player with no control beyond this season. However, Arrighetti had minimal present value. He was 7-5 with a 4.60 ERA, but virtually all of those wins came in a brilliant first month that saw him win the Pitcher of the Month Award. He was not currently in the Astros rotation and some would argue that he wouldn’t likely rejoin it unless there were major injuries. So, this was a classic get something now for someone that could help in the future kind of deal.

As much as I have enjoyed covering performance in spurts lately, the overall numbers on Arrighetti tell a story. He is 15-23 with a 4.66 ERA. He had a really good month in 2024 and a really good month this season. Take those two months away and he is a 5.00 ERA pitcher. Naturally, the Blue Jays are thinking but what if he can become THAT pitcher again? The deal makes sense for them because they aren’t going anywhere this season anyway, so why not trade for a lottery ticket?

The Larnach trade is different because you would have traded a pitcher that has an ERA near 2.00 since May 1st. Abreu is useful to you right now and certainly has been lately. The fact that the trade was vetoed by ownership means one of two things (both can be true at the same time). First, Jim Crane has little confidence in Dana Brown, so he is micromanaging him through the end of his contract. Secondly, Crane might actually be interested in re-signing Abreu and that wouldn’t happen if he is dealt.

Both of those statements deserves some additional focus, but I will save that for another piece. In this piece, we will look at what Brown was thinking and whether there was some upside there. Larnach has only been a regular for three seasons, so we will go back three years instead of five like we did for Varsho. However, we are looking at the same numbers as yesterday’s piece except I will jettison bases per out for now.

I seriously doubt that Jim Crane or his buddy Jeff Bagwell are crunching Statcast numbers in their spare time. However. there is an axiom here that even traditionalists can follow. When a player is having a career year, they are rarely ever really THAT good. Things are just coming together and there is always the possibility that they will stop at any moment.

The current average OPS in MLB is around .720. That means that Larnach has largely been an above average big league hitter over the last three seasons even if you look just at the Statcast numbers. We can call the Varsho deal a something for currently nothing deal and feel somewhat good about it if we couch it in those terms. However, Varsho is not a middle of the order hitter no matter how badly Joe Espada wants to call him one. Larnach would be a lot closer to what they were looking for and he has another season of control left beyond this season.

Again, I seriously doubt Crane and Bagwell are looking at THESE numbers, but I could be wrong. The hard hit percentage in particular is troubling. 40 percent is the league average, so he has been better than average until this season. The fact that he has better overall numbers in spite of making softer contact jumps off the page. However, the rest of the numbers are music to my ears.

Keep in mind that the average chase rate is 30 percent. The average swing rate is also higher than what he is currently doing as well (46-48 percent). So, he is a patient hitter and my little sabermetric heart loves those kinds of hitters. The contact rates are a little below league average (76-78 percent) but they are not drastically low. Essentially this guy has the profile of an above average major league hitter. Having that in the outfield sure would look nice.

However, as we saw with Varsho, fielding is a concern and one of the reasons why Varsho was considered a plus. Larnach could charitably be called a corner bat, but he is listed as a left fielder and designated hitter. We already have a designated hitter, so he would be the left fielder everyday. How does he look according to the defensive metrics?

Yikes. This looks even worse when you include the defensive innings. A standard everyday player plays about 1200 defensive innings over the course of a full season. Larnach had 429, 441, and 629 so far this season. So, any average fan with a calculator on their phone could prorate those numbers over the course of a full season’s worth of innings. It isn’t a pretty sight.

Now, certainly Dana Brown could look at the short porch in Daikan Park and talk himself into saying it is an easier left field to play than for most ballparks. That makes some sense. You could even talk yourself into the idea that you needed that bat and were willing to stomach the glove. I did not include BWAR or FWAR in the Varsho piece, but it is fair to point out that Larnach has been worth 2.1 FWAR this season. That’s nothing to sneeze at.

Abreu has been worth 0.5, but there are tons of analysts out there that would say that WAR does not do a good job of capturing relief pitcher’s contributions. It is hard to account for leverage and he definitely would be given more leverage from here until the end of the season. However, it is also not hard to see what Dana Brown was thinking. Those of us that have been critical of him should take this deal into account when evaluating his baseball acumen. After all, he reached an agreement according to multiple sources. Ownership simply vetoed the deal. We will have to explore that angle down the road.

The Yankees offense might be hanging on by their fingernails, but thanks to immaculate starting pitching, they come away from the road trip they just completed winning six of ten. They’ve scored two or fewer runs in each of the last four games in Chicago yet still snuck out of Wrigley with a series win. All of their offense in the rubber game boiled down to consecutive ABs in the third, Ryan McMahon and José Caballero winning the game with a pair of swings.

We join McMahon to lead off the third, expectations already low after Cubs starter Colin Rea struck out five of the first six Yankees he faced. McMahon has seen his playing time taper off in recent weeks as the Yankees have faced a host of left-handed pitchers, so what looked like the stirrings of an uptick in production at the plate in June were swiftly halted in their tracks.

Rea typically attacks lefty hitters with four-seamers and changeups, and that’s exactly the course of action he chooses against McMahon, starting with this first-pitch four-seamer at 94.

I’ll be honest, I have no idea what McMahon is looking for here. This fastball exits Rea’s hand aimed right down the middle and only fades a bit toward the outer half, but McMahon takes it all the way for called strike one. One of the many things contributing to the Yankees lineup’s struggles has been this tendency to take very hittable pitches early in the count. Not only is that likely the best pitch you’re going to get in a given AB, but it effectively gifts the pitcher count leverage without having to do to much as the Yankees give a strike away.

After earning a called strike with the heater on the outer half, a logical followup pitch would be to tunnel a changeup along a similar aiming point before it fades down and away trying to get McMahon to chase.

Rea yanks this changeup into the zone and this time McMahon does swing at the meatball, lining it to right at 111 mph for a leadoff single.

Here’s the full AB:

Next up is Caballero. He was something of a revelation out of the gate, starting the season with league-average offense, league-leading defense at short, and typically elite base running. But Caballero like much of the Yankees offense fell into a deep slump in June and July, mustering an anemic 71 wRC+ with worsening defense in the those two months. As such, expectations are yet again not high that he can do something of note in this spot.

Rea tends to have a different approach against righties — instead of four-seamers, changeups, and curveballs, he tends to go sinker, sweeper, slider against same-handed batters. Indeed, the first pitch Caballero sees is a 93 mph sinker.

This is a really disciplined take from Caballero. This sinker looks like a strike for most of its path toward home, only ducking out of the strike zone down and in during the final 15 feet before reaching the batter.

Curiously, Rea opts for a four-seamer for his 1-0 pitch to Caballero. On one hand, it makes sense given Caballero has performed a lot worse against the four-seamer than the sinker. On the other, Caballero has chased pretty much every sweeper and slider out of the zone in recent weeks, so I was expecting a breaker rather than a heater in this spot.

Rea leaves this 94 mph four-seamer up and out over the plate and Caballero jumps all over it, crushing it 408 feet to left-center to open the scoring, 2-0. You can tell Caballero is sitting dead red and he certainly doesn’t miss it.

Here’s the full AB:

I’m not going to make any declarations that this pair of ABs from McMahon and Caballero are at all indicative of some sort of turnaround in form for either player. However, both are illustrative of something I’d like to see more from pretty much the entire Yankees lineup. I mentioned earlier how detrimental it was for Yankees hitters to be so passive against hittable first-pitch fastballs. Another thing that has really limited their production has been an inability to punish mistake pitches when they do swing, the Yankees seemingly fouling off a disproportionate number of meatballs over the summer. Both McMahon and Caballero made sure to punish the two mistakes that Rea offered up, and it resulted in them winning the game.

The coming weeks could be a time of upheaval for McMahon and Caballero. Even with Anthony Volpe and Max Schuemann optioned to Triple-A, the infield is pretty crowded right now. Luis García Jr. seems most likely to just play first and DH, though he has seen plenty of time at the keystone if the Yankees decide to go down that road at all (Aaron Boone seemed to indicate that this was unlikely). Monday night’s call-up for Yankees top overall prospect George Lombard Jr. means that Caballero’s days starting at short are numbered. And Amed Rosario’s presence still cuts into McMahon’s time at third as well. It’s not a bad thing to have options, and the possibility of moving McMahon and Caballero to the bench gives the Yankees flexibility to use the former as a late-inning defensive substitution and Caballero as the super utility player he was initially envisioned to be.

Meet the Mets

The new-look Mets defeated the Cleveland Guardians 6-2. Luis Torrens had a tremendous game, going 3-for-3 with a home run and a walk, driving in four of the Mets six runs.

Choose your recap: Amazin’ Avenue, Faith and Fear in Flushing, New York Daily News, New York Post

It might take some time before anyone can know how David Stearns’ deadline moves worked out, but he stuck to his guns in his vision.

While some of the prospects the Mets traded for might become part of a future Mets team, others could be used in trade packages on the not-too-distant future.

The Mets aren’t done trading, they’re simply on hold until they can resume this offseason.

Clay Holmes was nearly traded to the Diamondbacks, before troubling medical records put a stop to the potential deal.

New Mets prospect Sammy Stafura grew up a die-hard Mets fan, rooting for David Wright and Ruben Tejada in his home less than 40 minutes from Citi Field.

Sammy Stafura has declared his undying dedication to his new organization, giving the Mets a prospect willing to do anything to help them.

Robert Stock will be making his start in the next turn of the rotation, with Kodai Senga being turned into a one-inning leverage reliever.

Will Sammon reflected on the Mets trade deadline and the conversations and thoughts that shaped their decisions.

Around the National League East

The Phillies won a 5-0 shutout of the Nationals. Jesus Luzardo had a fantastic outing, going eight scoreless innings giving up four hits and two walks while striking out seven.

The Braves got the better of the Marlins with a 4-2 win. Austin Riley drove in two of the Braves’ four runs with a two-run home run in the seventh inning.

Around Major League Baseball

The Adley Rutschman deal illustrated two teams with opposite approaches, one constantly worried about the future that may never come and another chasing present glory.

The Yankees, after a disappointing trade deadline, have played the final card in their hand, promoting top prospect George Lombard Jr.

The Angels designated Jorge Soler for assignment.

MLB.com listed the six biggest winners of the trade deadline.

It was a chaotic trade deadline, and there were eight huge surprises that shocked the league.

To pair with the biggest splashes, there were some more under the radar trades that could make big impacts.

Deesha Thosar attempted to answer the ten biggest questions after the trade deadline.

While the Tarik Skubal trade seemed to come together pretty quickly for the Dodgers, the Brewers also threw their hat in the ring.

Tigers president Scott Harris has responded to the criticisms of the return the Tigers received in the Skubal trade.

Skubal himself also defended the trade, saying that every team could’ve traded for him.

Ippei Mizuhara’s bookie said that the signs of Mizuhara’s gambling addiction were evident early on.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

A Pod of Their Own was back with a post-trade deadline episode.

Steve Sypa published another group of Mets Minor League Players of the Week.

Lukas Vlahos broke down the return the Mets got in the trade of Clay Holmes and Tyrone Taylor.

Allison McCague released both her pitcher meter and position player meter for the last two weeks of Mets baseball.

This Date in Mets History

The 1973 New York Mets reached their worst record of the season, falling 12 games under .500, ahead of an eventual NLCS win and World Series appearance.

The Atlanta Braves kicked off the series against the Miami Marlins with a 4-2 win on Tuesday evening. Despite some drama in the later innings, Grant Holmes made the start and pitched a gem. He tossed six scoreless innings, striking out five and giving up a base on balls. 

The Marlins outhit the Atlanta offense, but fortunately, the Braves were able to hold on and get their sixth straight win. The series continues tonight at 7:15 ET.

More Braves News:

Walt Weiss had lots to say on the trade deadline and his trust in Alex Anthopoulos.

Atlanta lost a piece of history, as a magnolia from Ponce de Leon Park fell in a storm.

MLB News:

Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Dalton Rushing has been diagnosed with a partial UCL tear. He will continue to hit but has been shut down from throwing. 

The Washington Nationals placed outfielder James Wood on the 10-day injured list with an oblique strain. The strain was described as “subtle” and “mild.”

The Colorado Rockies agreed to a two-year, $16.25M extension with outfielder Mickey Moniak. 

From the Feed:

Cast your vote for Braves Player of the Game here.

Elieser Hernández has rejoined the Braves on a minor league deal. 

The entire baseball world turned their collective heads towards the city of Chicago on Tuesday, as the Dodgers debuted their shiniest new addition.

Tarik Skubal took the mound for the first time in Dodger blue after being dealt from the Detroit Tigers late Saturday night. While Skubal finished with a quality start— six innings, two earned runs, six strikeouts— the offense could only provide him with one run of support as the Cubs handed the reigning two-time AL Cy Young award winner a tough defeat.

The Chicago crowd gave Skubal a resounding chorus of boos and heckles, and the left-hander admitted that pitching at Wrigley Field put him in a playoff atmosphere, per Sonja Chen of MLB.com.

“Going in and competing, I don’t expect anything else,” Skubal said of the hostile atmosphere. “As far as environments, I’ve pitched in plenty of them. I haven’t actually made a home start in the postseason. They’ve all been on the road. I’ve pitched in pretty good environments, and I’d say that’s up there with any of those postseason starts.”

The Dodgers’ offense has fell into a slumber during the team’s five-game losing streak, and it was ever apparent on Tuesday as they could only tack on one run against Javier Assad and company. That lone run belonged to a home run by Kyle Tucker, and he has managed to put up good numbers back at Wrigley Field. He has done that while receiving unfavorable treatment from his former fanbase, leaving him feeling blindsided, per Jack Harris of the California Post.

“I don’t know,” he said when asked of the hostilities afterward. “I tried my hardest last year. I tried playing through a hand fracture and calf thing, just trying to get back for the playoffs for them, trying to do what I could to help out the team.”

Mookie Betts is in the midst of a summer slump, as the shortstop is now slashing just .196/.211/.321 with two home runs and five RBI over his last 15 games, striking out eight times compared to just one walk. Betts recounted his recent struggles at the plate with Kirsten Watson of SportsNet LA following Tuesday’s loss to the Cubs.

“Just a rut… I just know I need to be better… I’m gonna have to help the team at some point; it’s been too long.”

The Boston Red Sox were as busy as you could possibly be on Monday.

If you missed the events of the trade deadline, go ahead take a look at the three deals that they were able to agree upon:

TRADE 1
Red Sox: C Adley Rutschman, C Jake Rogers, and Cash
Orioles: RHP Anthony Eyanson, RHP, Kyson Witherspoon, OF Enddy Azocar, C Carlos Narváez, PTBNL

TRADE 2
Red Sox: LHP Erik Miller
Giants: IF Marcelo Mayer

TRADE 3
Red Sox: OF Eli White
Braves: RHP Tyler Uberstine

I could hand out grades for each of those moves but that has already been done, so what we’re going to do is look at how they all came together and what it means for the organization in the grand scheme of things.

The Red Sox have been butchered for overpaying for Rutschman, selling low on Mayer, and making the relatively confusing addition of White, but what they also did was reiterate a point previously made by chief baseball officer Craig Breslow after the Curtis Mead deal:

“I’ve tried to shift to our goal so it’s not to win the trade. Our goal is to make our major league team better.”

If you’re taking that into consideration, it’s safe to say that they’re better today than they were on Monday, no?

Mead’s inclusion in that list of trade deadline acquisitions certainly makes it look better, but even when acknowledging the fact that he might not return until the postseason you can easily see how much they upgraded with Rutschman, Miller, and (kind of) White. I haven’t even mentioned what things could look like if Roman Anthony and Trevor Story return before October, but now is as good a time as any…

POTENTIAL PLAYOFF LINEUP

1. Roman Anthony (L)
2. Curtis Mead (R)
3. Adley Rutschman (S)
4. Willson Contreras (R)
5. Wilyer Abreu (L)
6. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)
7. Masataka Yoshida/ Jarren Duran (L)
8. Trevor Story/Andruw Monasterio (R)
9. Caleb Durbin (R)

BENCH: Eli White/Jahmai Jones, Romy Gonzalez/Anthony Seigler

POTENTIAL PLAYOFF PITCHING STAFF

1. Sonny Gray (RHP)
2. Ranger Suarez (LHP)
3. Payton Tolle (LHP)
4. Jake Bennett (LHP)

RHP: Garrett Whitlock, Justin Slaten, Tyron Guerrero, Brayan Bello, Greg Weissert

LHP: Aroldis Chapman, Erik Miller, Patrick Sandoval, Jovani Moran

It’s not going to look like that because… well, nothing ever ends up turning out the way we expect and that is too many players, but that’s as deep a roster as we’ve seen all season. Boston wasn’t going to do any better, either, especially if they weren’t willing to give up Mayer, Eyanson, and Azocar.

Breslow almost certainly overpaid on all three moves, so go ahead and complain about that if you want. I just don’t think there was any other way to capitalize on a once-in-a-generation run, and isn’t that what this is all about? The Red Sox have an opportunity to go compete for the American League, and after what we saw over the weekend, they could even conceivably compete for a World Series.

If that takes flirting with the line of aggressiveness and recklessness… so be it.

Good morning, baseball fans!

Since the San Francisco Giants have a morning game today, I thought we’d go ahead and just combine the BP and Gamethreads for today.

Unfortunately, as of the time this is being written, neither team has announced a starting pitcher. I would imagine that is probably because neither team is entirely sure who is still on their roster and who is not anymore.

But luckily for you, you are in the future! So that information might be available for you now. You can check down in the comments for more up to date information from other members of the community. Because you don’t live in the past, unlike me.

Game #115

Who: San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers

Where: Globe Life Field, Arlington, Texas

When: 11:35 a.m. PT

Regional broadcast: NBC Sports Bay Area

National broadcast: n/a

Radio: KNBR 680 AM/104.5 FM, KSFN 1510 AM