Category: Baseball

After roughly four months of no Guardians baseball, we will now gorge ourselves on two Cleveland spring training games today.

Logan Allen will pitch an inning or two against the Reds and Chase Burns at 3:05PM ET and Joey Cantillo will do the same against Garrett Stallings and the Brewers at 3:10PM ET in split-squad action. We will be doing Spring Training game threads this year so you can discuss both games together here starting at 3PM ET. You can listen to the Guardians-Reds game on Guardians’ radio.

Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Travis Bazzana joined Rosey on Guardians’ Weekly.

Angels’ owner Arte Moreno told the public that winning isn’t one of the top five things Angels fans care about, as fan surveys indicate. Reminds me of “Fan surveys indicate fans want GuardsFest every three years, not annually.” Just lies and gaslighting.

Baseball is back! Spring training opening day has arrived for the Cardinals, which is the perfect time to suspend reality and indulge ourselves in some good old-fashioned optimism. Expectations for the team are at an all-time (or at least this century) low. It is easy for national media types and casual fans to look at the Brendan Donovan, Sonny Gray, and Willson Contreras trades and mentally bucket the Cardinals into a rebuilding tier with the Nationals and Angels, or even the White Sox and Rockies as teams that aren’t trying this year. The Cardinals do not belong in that group. This perception of the team has the Cardinals perfectly positioned to shock the baseball world with a few lucky breaks in 2026. 

What would constitute shocking the baseball world? Let’s keep it simple and set our eyes on making the playoffs. For a refresher, here are the wins required to make the playoffs since the three-team wild card era began in 2022.

Every team to win 90+ games over the last four seasons has wound up playing October baseball. Arizona won 89 games in 2024 but lost the tiebreaker to the 89-win Braves and Mets. Cincinnati last year is the lone 83-win team to win a wild card spot since 2022. Ten of the 14 teams to win between 84 and 88 games have made the playoffs. Most projections have the Cardinals win total close to the mid-70s (PECOTA notwithstanding), so let’s keep it simple and say that overachieving by about 10 wins will put the Cardinals in a prime position to grab a spot in the postseason tournament. 

What Does a Lucky Cardinals Team Look Like?

Before we get into the fantasy portion of today’s proceedings, I wanted to look at how much hope we should have just based on luck. As we are all acutely aware, random variance, unquantifiable dynamics, and supernatural intervention play a huge role every season. The best high-level statistic we have to understand team quality is Wins Above Replacement (WAR). WAR is set to 1,000 across baseball each year, so a .500 team would be expected to accrue 33.3 WAR. Conveniently enough, last season, the Cardinals team WAR was 30.4, three less than an average team, which tied out exactly to their 78-win total.   

The table below outlines how often, since 2001, teams have over and underperformed their “deserved” win total based on team WAR. 

*2020 excluded

68% of the time, a team’s win total has been within five wins in either direction of their expected win total based on WAR. The Cubs have had the single biggest underperforming season winning 67 games in 2002 with a roster led by Sammy Sosa, Matt Clement, and Kerry Wood that produced WAR to support an 82-win team. On the other end of the spectrum, the 2016 Rangers overperformed by 18 wins on the way to a 95-win season. 

If the Cardinals are a true talent 75-win team, they should have around a 3% chance of winning 85+ games just based on normal baseball chaos. If you think they are closer to an 80-win team, the chances of random variance increase their odds of winning 85+ games to 16%. As a quick aside, here are the Cardinals over/underperformances over the last 25 years.

The Cardinals’ 50-win overperformance is second in baseball to the Angels at 71 over this timeframe. The Cubs are tied for last at 57 actual wins less than their deserved WAR wins. 

What Does a Good Cardinals Team Look Like?

What do the Cardinals look like if they are a legitimately good team in 2026? Every player overperforming or improving by 15% would do the trick… So would Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman combining for 80 home runs and getting MVP votes. These scenarios are too boring and too unlikely, respectively, to spend too much time thinking about. What are some slightly more plausible scenarios that could lead to a summer of competitive baseball? The following aren’t predictions but my best guesses as to what the primary catalyst will be if we find the Cardinals competing for the postseason this September. 

In each scenario, I am assuming the rest of the team plays generally as expected. 

Scenario 1 – Starting Rotation has the Right Stuff+

Stuff+, a metric that measures a pitcher’s effectiveness based on velocity, movement, release point, etc., ranked the Cardinals starters second to last in baseball at 93 in 2025. Chaim Bloom’s general approach to the pitching staff seems to be geared specifically toward improving this metric. In 2026, Dustin May puts it all together and has a true breakout season. His career Stuff+ is 111, which would have ranked tied for fourth among qualified starters last season. Kyle Leahy continues his trend of improving every year and bursts onto the scene with above average stuff and command to take over as the undisputed number 2 starter behind May. Richard Fitts (103 Stuff+) and Hunter Dobbins (98) replace the abysmal Miles Mikolas (89) and Erick Fedde (91) innings with breakout seasons, combining for 5-6 WAR between them. Michael McGreevy and Matthew Liberatore build on solid 2025 seasons and complete one of the deepest rotations in baseball. 

Scenario 2 – Mini MV3

Masyn Winn, JJ Wetherholt, and Ivan Herrera are the best projected players on the position player side of things with a combined 8.5 projected WAR (ZiPS). That is not going to cut it in this version of reality. Winn combines his 2025 defense with a mini offensive breakout to put up 5.5 WAR. Ivan Herrera sticks at catcher while getting plenty of DH at-bats and delivers a 5 WAR season. JJ Wetherholt hits his stride early and often, getting to 4.5 WAR en route to the NL Rookie of the Year award. 

Scenario 3 – The Outfield is Really Good

Even the most optimistic current projection system sees the Cardinals as having a bottom 5-10 outfield in baseball. Lars Nootbaar comes back more quickly than expected with his fresh heels and makes his dwindling believers look smart with a 4.5 WAR season. Victor Scott II quietly makes incremental gains in every aspect of his game while getting 600 plate appearances and puts up 3.5 WAR in center field. In right field, Jordan Walker improves to closer to replacement level, but with the Cardinals off to an excellent start, he is replaced as the primary right fielder by Joshua Baez. Baez goes on to hit 26 home runs and challenges Wetherholt for the Rookie of the Year award. 

Scenario 4 – Prospects Arrive Early and Often

Quinn Mathews and Joshua Baez make their big league debuts surprisingly early and help keep the Cardinals within shouting distance of the wild card through June. As the deadline approaches and the Cardinals are a few games under .500, Chaim Bloom stays true to his steely-eyed vision and trades Dustin May, Lars Nootbaar, and Jojo Romero. Tink Hence and Cooper Hjerpe are called up to fill innings and immediately supercharge the pitching staff with strikeouts. As September approaches and the Cardinals climb to ten games over .500, the gloves come off with a series of prospect promotions starting with Liam Doyle and finishing with Brandon Clarke and Jurrangelo Cijntje. This scenario sounds the craziest when you try to pick the actual names, but swap any of them out for Blaze Jordan, Chen-Wei Lin, Leonardo Bernal, Ixan Henderson, Luis Gastelum, or any of the deep list of prospects expected to start in Double-A or Triple-A. 

Which of these scenarios, or combination of scenarios, do you think is most likely? Is there another you could see being the catalyst to a surprising season? Let’s play ball. 

Spring games are underway, and the Yankees will take the field with the majority of their full squad for the first time this year. It won’t be for long, of course, but those first couple of innings broadcasting on YES are bound to bring some serotonin with them. With that comes the caveat that backups will take their place shortly thereafter, with sprinklings of prospects getting a look here and there. On the road it’ll be even more sparse to see the starters, as the season opener showcased, which begs the question: just how much of spring actually catches your attention?

For most, spring is a ball of excitement for a couple of days and then the monotony sets in and pleas are made to fast forward time just a little bit to get to games that matter. It’s hard to invest totally into exhibitions even for the most plugged-in and invested fans when the stats won’t matter, the results are skewed by varying talent levels on a given day’s roster, and most players are working more on timings and pitch adaptations than trying their hardest to win.

For some, this is part of the fun of it all — baseball is a marathon, not a sprint, and the contributions of guys slotted to start in Double-A at the start of the year can be surprisingly consequential depending on if things go really well for them or really, really bad for the big leaguers. Getting to see guys that won’t get the spotlight right away can be a breath of fresh air, and there’s always a name or two that catches people’s eyes with a highlight spring even though they’re nowhere near the majors yet. Building the hype early can lead to an enormous payoff in a year or two when the same kid comes back to camp ready to take on a role at the highest level.

There’s even a few who won’t care at all about spring — until the Yankees are playing in the Bronx, it just doesn’t matter to ‘em. What camp do you fall in, and what’s your reasoning for it? Personally, I’m always at least a little invested throughout spring, as it can lead to guys like Jordan Montgomery turning enough heads to take a rotation spot when they were far down on the depth chart to open camp. It’s harder to see splashes like that with a roster like this year’s team, but there’ll be a dark horse somewhere, I’m sure of it.

We’ve got just a couple of things to note before we get ready for the Yankees’ spring home opener. Nolan takes a look at Elmer Rodriguez’s promising start in the Grapefruit League season opener after the top pitching prospect tossed three scoreless innings, and then Nick wishes a happy birthday to a Yankee that came up for a brief stint with the 1990 Yankees and delivered a shot of adrenaline to a down-on-their luck team: Oscar Azócar.

Today’s Matchup:

New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers

Time: 1:05 p.m. EST

Video: YES Network, Gotham Sports, Tigers.TV

Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, FL

Phillies camp battles to watch as Grapefruit League opens originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

Daily workouts are wrapping up in Clearwater, a prelude to what will play out once Grapefruit League games begin Saturday.

The Phillies brought 30 non-roster invites to camp, including top prospect Aidan Miller and soon-to-be center fielder Justin Crawford.

Most of the lineup is set. Most of the rotation is, too — with Zack Wheeler expected to miss the start of the season. But the bench and the bullpen still have room, and live reps will decide it.

Here are a few battles to watch as games get going:

Backup catcher

Rafael Marchán vs. Garrett Stubbs

You’re not counting on strong offense from either Marchán or Stubbs. This one is more about the pitching staff’s comfort level, plus the defensive traits that matter most in today’s game.

Marchán has flashed with the bat before. He posted an .894 OPS in 56 plate appearances in 2024 and hit a go-ahead homer against the Dodgers last season that helped the Phillies win that regular-season series. The 5-foot-9, 170-pound switch-hitter is also a career .280 hitter with a .787 OPS vs. lefties.

But the separator is defense. With ABS arriving, catching value outside framing carries more weight. Marchán ranked in the 96th percentile in pop time (1.88) last season and was well above average in caught stealing above average, per Statcast.

Stubbs is on a split deal, which gives the Phillies flexibility to send him to Lehigh Valley. His best big league work came in 2022, when he slashed .264/.350/.462 in 46 games. He has hit .205 since. Even with some success at Triple-A last season, it may be an uphill climb for the 32-year-old to crack the roster.

Prediction: Marchán

Fourth bench spot

Johan Rojas vs. Dylan Moore vs. Bryan De La Cruz

This is where a left-handed bat would have fit cleanly, with Marchán, Edmundo Sosa and Otto Kemp likely filling out most of the bench. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (Phillies’ No. 7 prospect per MLB Pipeline) looked like a natural Max Kepler replacement, but he’s dealing with a knee injury and likely won’t be back until mid-Grapefruit League.

So the Phillies are left with three right-handed options, all with big league experience, and none with a strong offensive résumé to lean on.

Rojas is the speed-and-defense play, and he becomes more relevant if the club has any concern about Justin Crawford’s early defense in center. After a strong 59-game debut in 2023 (.302 average), Rojas has posted a .591 OPS over the last two seasons. He has 51 steals in the big leagues with an 87.9 percent success rate.

Even in limited chances last year, he ranked in the 99th percentile in sprint speed and his 92.5 mph average throw sat in the 94th percentile in arm strength.

Moore offers versatility. Despite being a career .206 hitter, he’s played every position except catcher. He’s a former Gold Glove winner and has been better against lefties (career .727 OPS).

That platoon value overlaps with Kemp and Sosa, so Moore’s best path is defense and flexibility, plus showing enough of the quality-of-contact flashes he’s had in spurts.

De La Cruz has the stronger track record at the plate. He has slugged 18-plus homers in two of his five big league seasons, but the production hasn’t always come with on-base value. In his 21-homer season two years ago, he posted a .271 OBP.

There’s swing-and-miss, limited plate discipline and defensive questions. Still, he’s coming off an MVP winter in the Dominican League, and a strong spring could tighten this decision.

One other factor: Moore’s deal pays up to $3 million if he breaks camp and reaches incentive thresholds. The Phillies are already deep into luxury tax territory, so it’s hard to see them taking on extra cost unless he clearly wins the job.

Prediction: Rojas

Long man

Bryse Wilson vs. Yoniel Curet

This role exists largely because Wheeler won’t be ready. If Wheeler were healthy, Taijuan Walker would be the obvious swingman after doing it last season. There’s also a world where the Phillies add another starter before Opening Day. Either way, this might be the most cutthroat roster spot in camp.

The Phillies’ starter Saturday is Wilson. He has swingman experience, and across two seasons in Milwaukee (2023-24), he pitched 87 games (nine starts) with a 3.42 ERA in 181.1 innings. His results cratered with the White Sox last year, posting a 6.65 ERA.

Wilson isn’t overpowering, but if he looks closer to the Milwaukee version, he becomes a sensible insurance arm.

Curet is the upside play. The Phillies acquired the 23-year-old at the Winter Meetings. In Tampa Bay’s system, he posted a 3.10 ERA across 80 professional starts (plus 17 relief outings) with 486 strikeouts in 371.1 innings. If the Phillies stretch him out in games, the upper-90s fastball that can touch triple digits will stand out.

Curet has a minor league option, which matters. That gives Wilson a real edge.

Prediction: Wilson

Two more bullpen spots open

This is a diverse mix. Dombrowski and the front office loaded camp with enough arms to force real competition.

Right-handers Jonathan Bowlan (Matt Strahm trade), Chase Shugart, Zach Pop, Rule 5 pick Zach McCambley and former Phillie Lou Trivino are all in the mix, along with left-hander Kyle Backhus.

Bowlan has the best pure “stuff” in the group. He has a five-pitch mix highlighted by a four-seamer that’s hard to square up. In 2025, among 357 pitchers who threw at least 200 four-seamers, Bowlan posted the highest swing-and-miss rate on the pitch (43.5 percent).

Shugart posted a 3.40 ERA in the Pirates’ bullpen last season. Pop has struggled in recent big league looks. McCambley got Rule 5’d after a 2.90 ERA in 67 Triple-A innings with Jacksonville. And Trivino was sharp in his opportunities with the Phillies, posting a 2.00 ERA in 10 appearances in 2025.

Backhus is the wild card. The lefty throws from a sidearm slot — the fourth-lowest arm angle among left-handed pitchers — with a low-velocity, funky mix that can make hitters uncomfortable quickly.

If the Phillies want to keep the bullpen roles clean, the simplest outcome is one righty and one lefty — and the two most logical fits are the two trade adds.

Prediction: Bowlan and Backhus

The first game of the spring for the Dodgers is finally here on Saturday afternoon, with a bus ride to Tempe to face the Angels at Diablo Stadium.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets the start for the Cactus League lid-lifter (hat tip to Bill Plunkett), making what will be his only start before leaving next week to join Japan for the World Baseball Classic. Shohei Ohtani will start at designated hitter in his earliest game action in spring since joining the Dodgers.

José Soriano will start on the mound for the Angels, who according to Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register “will have almost their entire projected everyday lineup when they face the Dodgers in the first Cactus League exhibition game on Saturday,” though Mike Trout is not expected to start.

Saturday game info

• Teams: Dodgers at Angels
• Ballpark: Tempe Diablo Stadium
• Time: 12:10 p.m. PT
• TV: SportsNet LA
• Radio: AM 570 (simulcast), KTNQ 1020 AM (Spanish)

Observations from Yankees’ spring training on Friday:

Touch base

Jazz Chisholm Jr. was on base twice in the 2-0 loss to the Orioles, roping a single off tough lefty Trevor Rogers and later drawing a walk.

Doesn’t compute

Austin Wells challenged a pitch in the fourth inning, trying to get a ball turned into a strike for his pitcher, Jake Bird.

But the ABS system showed Bird’s curveball was, in fact, well below the zone, as the Yankees lost a challenge.

Caught my eye

Center fielder Kenedy Corona provided the web gem of the day, diving into the gap to make a grab and rob Pete Alonso of extra bases.

The non-roster invitee won a minor league Gold Glove in 2023.

Tomorrow’s schedule

Top pitching prospect Carlos Lagrange will start the Yankees’ Grapefruit League home opener against the Tigers, with Aaron Judge among the regulars expected to be in the lineup.

Observations from Mets’ spring training on Thursday:

Old school

There was no ABS during Friday’s live batting practice at-bat between Juan Soto and Nolan McLean.

When there was a questionable call, Soto suggested a game of Rock Paper Scissors.

Soto won the contest, which led to a 10-pitch battle between the two that featured nothing but fastballs and ended in a Soto groundout.

Heads up

Ben Rortvedt, who battled plenty of injuries during his two years with the Yankees, managed to hit his head — twice — on a camera attached to the net right behind home plate during an at-bat in live batting practice.

Fortunately, he escaped unscathed as he looks to stick with the Mets after joining the organization last week.

Caught my eye

Brett Baty is dealing with right hamstring discomfort, but he’s been able to get in some work at first base as he looks to gain more versatility.

He’s looked fairly comfortable there in early drills.

Saturday’s schedule

It’s the Mets’ Grapefruit League opener against Miami at Clover Park at 1:10 p.m.

Lefty Brandon Waddell is set to get the start for the Mets, with at least several regulars expected to be in the lineup.

SARASOTA, Fla. — In case there was any doubt left that Pete Alonso has moved on from the Mets and embraced his new home, he was in the middle of an interview — after staying in his spring debut with the Orioles an extra inning so he could crush a home run — when he stopped in his tracks.

John Denver’s “Thank God I’m a Country Boy,” the song played during the seventh-inning stretch of every game at Camden Yards, came on the speakers at Ed Smith Stadium.

“I really love this song,” a grinning Alonso said. “This is going to be really fun this year.”

No, the slugging first baseman is not in Queens anymore.

Alonso is still wearing orange (a slightly different shade) and beating up on the Yankees (albeit this time in a game that did not count), but he looked right at home in an Orioles uniform as he delighted his new fans by doing what he does best: crushing baseballs.

“I feel honored to wear it,” Alonso said during the Orioles’ 2-0 win over the Yankees. “I feel great in it. I feel like I look good in it. It’s fantastic, I honestly couldn’t feel any better.”

Alonso, who signed a five-year, $155 million contract with the Orioles in December to end his long tenure with the Mets, received an ovation from the crowd of 7,886 before each at-bat.

Most of the Orioles regulars exited the Grapefruit League opener after the fifth inning, but Alonso wanted to stay in one more frame so he could take another at-bat. He had been robbed of extra bases in his second at-bat, on a diving grab by center fielder Kenedy Corona, but made the third one worth it.

He saw a curveball over the plate from non-roster right-hander Bradley Hanner and clobbered it 107.2 mph over the left-field fence. 

It offered a reminder of the challenge the Yankees will be facing twice as often this season than when Alonso was with the Mets, though he still did plenty of damage then — clubbing 11 home runs in 32 career games in the Subway Series.

“I feel like he’s done some damage against us — he’s hurt us,” manager Aaron Boone said before the game. “He’s gotten some big hits against us, some big homers against us. So hopefully we can do a better job of slowing him down a little bit. But he’s a huge presence in a lineup, and a guy that’s been incredibly durable, too. He’s a guy that goes to the post all the time. To have that 40-homer guy in the middle, night in and night out, lengthens their lineup.

“And it’s a lineup over there that has a chance to be really good.”

The Orioles-Yankees rivalry is a little different than Mets-Yankees, but Alonso said he was looking forward to it.

“It’s always fun because Yankee Stadium, it’s a really great place to play, fun place to hit,” he said. “Obviously they have really good teams. When you play against good teams, it makes for good competition. 

“For me, I’m looking forward to this next chapter. It’s going to be really exciting going to war with this team that we got here. I’m really excited.”

MLB.com | Bryan Hoch: Yankees ace Gerrit Cole crossed off another milestone in his recovery from Tommy John surgery in the spring of 2025. For the first time since going under the knife, the 35-year-old righty faced hitters, and it went as well as one could have expected. The 2023 AL Cy Young threw an inning and about 20 pitches, facing hitters such as Trent Grisham, Aaron Judge, and Jasson Dominguez. He struck out the center fielder, induced Judge to hit a grounder to second, and allowed hard contact to the Martian to round out the day.

Cole’s fastball sat in the 95-96 mph range, awfully encouraging at this time of the year. He won’t be ready for the start of the season, but should be back once he is fully stretched out, probably around late April.

Brendan Kuty on X: Everybody in attendance was impressed with Cole’s live batting practice session, his first after blowing up his elbow last spring. One of them, of course, was Yankees captain Aaron Judge.

“It looked like the old 45 that I’ve seen for years,” Judge said about his teammate. With his fastball sitting in the mid-90s and touching 96 mph, it’s a matter of making sure Cole’s command is on point and his breaking stuff rebounds all the way back after surgery, plus stretching out to a full starter’s workload. That could take a few weeks, but things are trending in the right direction. Can Cole and Judge lead the Yankees to the promised land?

MLB.com | Bryan Hoch: The Yankees had their spring training debut on Friday afternoon at Ed Smith Stadium, losing 2-0 to the Baltimore Orioles. A Pete Alonso two-run shot versus Bradley Hanner was the difference between the two teams. Prospect Elmer Rodríguez stole the show for the Yankees, touching 97 mph on the radar gun and tossing three scoreless frames. He conceded just three hits and no walks, striking out one. He looked in control for most of the afternoon, and his stuff was crisp.

“It felt good,” Rodríguez told Hoch. “That first inning, my adrenaline was high in the moment, but I was able to use it and channel it, and use it to my advantage.”

Jazz Chisholm Jr., Amed Rosario, Austin Wells, and José Caballero played on Friday, and Jake Bird contributed a scoreless frame in relief. Carson Coleman struck out the side in the seventh.

SARASOTA, Fla. — Right after securing a 30-30 season last September, Jazz Chisholm Jr. was already talking about wanting to reach 40-40.

Five months later, entering a vital contract year, the Yankees star is already jumping ahead to talk of a 50-50 season, which has only been done once in the history of the game, by Shohei Ohtani.

Give Chisholm this: He is never going to set his sights too low, or too boring.

“I’m not going to say nothing that I don’t think I can do,” he said after getting on base twice in his spring debut, a 2-0 loss to the Orioles at Ed Smith Stadium. “I’m always going to speak positive into the atmosphere. I’m never going to tell myself or tell anybody that, ‘Oh, I’m just going to have a year where I hit 10 home runs and hit .250.’ Who does that sound like? A loser. That’s a loser.

“I’m going to go shoot for the stars and if I miss, I’m going to end up on the moon.”

The Yankees would certainly take the moon, with Chisholm coming off a season in which he hit 31 home runs and stole 31 bases despite missing a month with an oblique injury and not attempting a steal for another month while he played through a groin issue.

Chisholm is heading into his final year under club control, and while hundreds of millions of dollars could be waiting on the other side of it, he is planning on using the pressure of such a big season to his advantage.

“I think that brings out the best in me,” he said. “The contract year is even better for me. I like pressure. I like going out there and having to play for something, having to go and do it. Go win games and make it meaningful every day. That’s what baseball’s supposed to be about. You play for people, you play for your family, you play for your friends at home and you play for the team you’re wearing every time you go out there. And also, you play for yourself.

“At the end of the day, when you’re going out there and doing all that, how can you not get pumped up and excited and enjoy the ride? It’s just like a roller coaster. If you don’t enjoy the ride, it’s going to suck. But when you enjoy the ride, it’s one of the best rides of your life.”

Chisholm also added that he will be playing this season for his best friend growing up, who died unexpectedly last year.

“That’s what I’m really playing this year for is my best friend, that he is not going to get to see me go into free agency,” he said. “He’s not going to get to see me sign the long-term deal we’ve been talking about since I was kid. He’s not going to be able to see a lot of things that I do and it sucks. I wish he was here. I still miss him to this day. So yeah, that’s who I play for.”

Jake Bird threw a scoreless inning of relief, allowing only an infield single that he quickly erased on a double play.

According to the latest Depth Charts projections from FanGraphs, Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani is forecasted to lead all of Major League Baseball in 2026 with 48 home runs, 119 RBIs, 129 runs scored and a thunderous .599 slugging percentage. 

His projected .983 OPS trails only one hitter in the model. In other words, the machines and algorithms are predicting dominance.

Again.

How will Shohei Ohtani amaze us this year? pic.twitter.com/XWXku6VnIx

— MLB (@MLB) February 21, 2026

Download The California Post App, follow us on social, and subscribe to our newsletters

Ohtani already finished among MLB’s elite offensive leaders last season, pacing the league in runs scored, and finishing second in slugging percentage behind only Aaron Judge. His 55 home runs were two more than Judge, but he finished third behind Cal Raleigh (60) and Kyle Schwarber (56).

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts — who has guided Los Angeles to back-to-back World Series titles, and multiple pennants — doesn’t mince words when discussing his generational talent. He has called Ohtani “the best player that’s ever played this game.” Hyperbole? Maybe. But the résumé keeps stacking.

The betting markets agree. Ohtani currently sits atop National League MVP odds at -125, and if his arm cooperates, Cy Young whispers won’t be far behind. Imagine a season where 45-plus homers meets 180 strikeouts on the mound. That isn’t fantasy baseball. That’s the Ohtani proposition.

In Los Angeles, expectations don’t scare anyone. They fuel October dreams. And if the projections hold, 2026 won’t just be another MVP chase — it could be baseball history unfolding in real time.

PORT ST. LUCIE — There wasn’t much good to take from Devin Williams’ lone season with the Yankees, a season in which he lost the closer job twice and hardly resembled the dominant reliever he’d been for most of his career in Milwaukee. 

But as Williams settles into his new home with the Mets, he believes at least one good thing from last year follows him to Queens. 

“Mental toughness,’’ Williams said following the team’s workout Friday at Clover Park. “I wasn’t executing and I was getting bad results. It got pretty tough there, but I got through it and was throwing the ball really well by the end of the year.” 

Williams is hoping the fact he finished the regular season with nine straight scoreless appearances, mostly setting up closer David Bednar, and four more in the playoffs, proves that he was able to put his 2025 struggles behind him. 

“Probably that last stretch of games, that was me, that’s my standard,’’ Williams said. “I was executing the way I need to.’’ 

And now he’s back closing games, with Edwin Díaz having left for the Dodgers shortly after Williams signed with the Mets. 

He said he’s ready for the challenge. 

“You’re gonna fail,’’ Williams said. “[Stuff] got really bad for a little bit last year, but I’m still me. I’m still the same guy. I’m still really good at this game.” 

“He’s been a guy,” Carlos Mendoza said of Williams’ status as one of the top closers in the game. “Last year wasn’t easy for him at the beginning and he made some adjustments.” 

Last year’s experience may end up helping him going forward. “You’re always going to have adversity,’’ Williams said. “That was the toughest it’s been for me in the big leagues.” 

But he noted it wasn’t the lowest point of his career, instead pointing to 2018, when he was still in the lower level of the minors with the Brewers, coming off Tommy John surgery and had a terrible season. 

“There were times I was ready to quit in ’18,’’ Williams said. “I came back from [surgery] and I was terrible and wanted to go home. Every day wasn’t good. But I got through that, got to the big leagues [in 2019] and the rest is history.” 

Just as he hopes 2025 is history for him, too. 

It will take some time before Brett Baty gets some reps in right field, where he will be in the mix for playing time once his balky right hamstring fully heals. 

Mendoza said Friday that they are focused on getting Baty reps in the infield — where he has been working at first base — before getting him in the outfield. 

But Mendoza is confident Baty will be able to make the transition for one main reason. “The athleticism,’’ the manager said. 

And he pointed to what Baty was able to do last year as a reason, as Baty moved from third base to second without much of an issue. 

“We didn’t know which way it was gonna go when we asked him to play second base,’’ Mendoza said. “It’s not an easy position, especially when you’re used to playing on the left side and a corner position.” 

Baty “made that transition easily,’’ according to Mendoza. 

Baty played some outfield in the minors, most recently starting games there in 2022 with Double-A Binghamton. 

“He’s familiar with the outfield,” Mendoza said. “Now we’ve got to get him reads with angles. He enjoys being that type of player and he takes it personally.”

Spring Training is officially upon us! The wintry woes of the offseason are behind us as San Diego Padres faced off against the Seattle Mariners at their shared complex in Peoria, Ariz. for the first game of the year. Baseball is back!

While a great deal of prospects got plenty of use today, and will continue to get looked at this preseason. One in particular, Jagger Haynes, held his ground and did a fantastic job facing a (mostly MLB-starting) Seattle lineup. 

Play-by-play of today’s game

Across two innings, Haynes allowed two singles in the first, and a single and home run in the second. Admittedly, that line doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. But there’s more nuance to the situation than just that line.

To start the game, Haynes allowed a single from the leadoff hitter, Luke Raley. After that he got Mariners superstar Cal Raleigh to fly out before giving up another single to Julio Rodríguez. With two on and two outs, he induced a double play from Josh Naylor to end the inning.

When he came back in the second, he made quick work of his first two batters. Randy Arozarena lined out and J.P Crawford struck out. Haynes then got Dominic Canzone to hit a fly ball where an easy catch could have ended the inning, but left fielder Nick Schnell lost the ball in the sun and was unable to complete the inning-ending catch. 

Due to that error, Haynes had to continue pitching and now had Canzone on first base. He immediately gave up a home run to Michael Arroyo before getting Colt Emerson to fly out to right field to end it.

It’s hard to speak to how difficult it is to regroup mentally after an error like that, but for Haynes to immediately end the inning after giving up a two-run home run (to a batter he wasn’t even supposed to face) was an indicator of the mental fortitude Haynes has.

Haynes’ minors career

Across his last three years in the San Diego organization, he has spent time in three different levels of the minors, owning a 4.33 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP. Again, the numbers aren’t inspiring, but his ability to come back from Tommy John surgery in 2021, especially after a long rehabilitation process, is. 

After being drafted in 2020, Haynes lost out on the ‘21 and ‘22 season and had to wait to pitch for the organization until the 2023 season. But since joining the Friars at the minor league level, he has shown himself to be a worthwhile prospect.

Obviously, today’s game is a small sample size, it’s only two innings after all. But the stuff that Haynes put on display showed he is beginning to make a case to join the major league roster in the next few years (maybe even getting a call up later this year in the dog days of summer). Whatever the case, it will be interesting to see what the season has in store for Haynes in the Padres’ organization.

For an offense that finished 2025 at the bottom of the league in slugging (22^nd) and home runs (28^th), it was nice to see the San Diego Padres produce their first runs of Cactus League play on the strength of a solo home run from Romeo Sanabria in the top of the sixth inning and a two-run home run from Jose Miranda in the top of the seventh inning during their 7-4 loss to the Seattle Mariners at Peoria Stadium on Friday. Of course, Sanabria and Miranda will not be everyday players for the Padres, but it could indicate the offensive approach in San Diego is changing or has changed under new hitting coach Steven Souza Jr.

The lineup definitely changed under new Padres manager Craig Stammen and it was a welcome sight for Padres fans who watched former manager Mike Shildt refuse to move Luis Arraez out of the second spot in the lineup despite his struggles last season. Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. were the top four in the lineup, and they produced just one hit on an infield single to start the game by Bogaerts. Jake Cronenworth, Nick Castellanos, Luis Campusano, Ty France and Nick Schnell combined to add just two more hits in the contest.

Hitters often take longer to find their swing in Spring Training and with this being the first game of the spring, there is no reason to get too excited about the success of Sanabria and Miranda or too upset about the stat lines of the big names at the top of the lineup. Cronenworth was the only other regular in the San Diego lineup to record a hit, but he should have had two and two RBI. It took a diving play in the first inning by Seattle right fielder Dominic Canzone to keep Cronenworth off the basepaths and the Padres off the scoreboard. Cronenworth hit the ball well in his two plate appearances.

Castellanos, who got the start at first base, made two nice plays of his own on defense in the bottom of the fourth inning. The first play required him to range to his right to field a ground ball off the bat of J.P. Crawford and then make an underhand throw to pitcher Wandy Peralta who was covering first base for the first out of the inning. The second play resulted in the final out of the inning. Castellanos made a diving play to his right on a hard ground ball by Colt Emmerson with a runner on second base, recovered and made an overhand throw to Peralta at first to end the frame and keep the Mariners from adding to their 3-0 lead.

Stammen was unable to get his first win as a manager in the first game of the spring season, but he and the Padres will have another chance when San Diego plays the Kansas City Royals at Surprise Stadium in Surprise, Ariz. on Saturday at 12:05 p.m.

Munetaka Murakami had a booming spring training debut with the White Sox on Friday — but traffic almost blocked it from happening.

Around 30 minutes before the first pitch of the White Sox’s 8-1 Cactus League win over the Cubs, the team announced that Murakami was a healthy scratch due to the Japanese slugger being stuck in a traffic jam.

Just moments later, however, Murakami was back in Chicago’s starting lineup.

“Oh my god!” Murakami said in English, per MLB.com.

“I was so concerned if I could make it on time,” he continued through interpreter Kenzo Yagi. “There was a big accident on the highway, and I was just concerned the whole time. I was actually in the car until 12:50 [p.m., 15 minutes before first pitch].”

Although not being fully prepared for the game, Murakami showed why the White Sox signed him this offseason.

In his second at-bat, the first baseman blasted a single to center with a 108.3 mph exit velocity, according to Statcast.

For his next at-bat, Murakami launched a two-run double to center field after Cubs outfielder — and fellow World Baseball Classic Team Japan teammate — Seiya Suzuki lost the ball in the sun.

After the game, Suzuki jokingly told reporters that he is not supporting Murakami following his fly ball.

“After the pop-up, I hate him. So I’m not going to support him,” Suzuki told reporters through an interpreter before adding, “I’m just kidding.”

White Sox manager Will Venable praised Murakami’s “adaptability and flexibility” to the MLB ahead of his first season in the United States.

“You’ve got to give Mune a lot of credit,” Venable said. “This guy is so committed and such a professional. We’ve asked him to do some things that he hasn’t necessarily been accustomed to, and how he prepares and his adaptability and flexibility to do those things has been awesome.”

The White Sox signed Murakami to a two-year deal worth $34 million in December after he received interest from several MLB teams.