Category: Baseball

Through the first 19 games of the 2026 Orioles season, they are once again disappointing us. It is not a lot of comfort that many teams in the American League are off to a start where they are muddling along around .500. That’s mostly because a lot of these problems feel familiar and it’s frustrating that they’ve had an offseason to try to resolve them and so far they haven’t.

How much blame does Mike Elias deserve for all of this? To some degree, he deserves all blame for all of the Orioles problems, because he is the man in charge and he makes the decisions. I find this not a wholly satisfying perspective, since it’s also the players who take the field and have to actually make the plays. Many struggling Orioles have had previous MLB success that it was reasonable to believe they could do again this year. It’s too early to make final judgments about whether certain guys stink or not in 2026.

In this completely subjective survey of early 2026 Orioles problems, I consider each of the problem players, whether this is likely to prove a durable problem, and whether Elias deserves the blame if the problem is durable.

For my money, there are five problem hitters, four problem pitchers, problems with the defense in general, and injury problems. The list goes in order of players as they appear while scrolling down on the Baseball Reference 2026 Orioles statistics page.

Pete Alonso

• Am I worried? No

Alonso has hit 34 home runs or more in each of the five seasons before this. He is not hitting them yet, or hitting much at all yet. I think it is reasonable to believe that the home runs and hitting in general will arrive. He is even playing better defense than expected so far. We can all find more productive uses for our anxious energy than to project concerns about Chris Davis from years beyond the end of his playing career onto Alonso.

Coby Mayo

• Am I worried? Yes
• Should Elias be blamed? Yes

Unlike some of the early struggling Orioles, there is nothing you can look at in Mayo’s batted ball profile that points to better things coming. He is a mess up there. He isn’t hitting the ball hard and the result is he’s not hitting the ball much at all. The only small saving grace is that his defense, the thing everyone was worried about in spring training, is fine.

Elias went out of his way to hold on to Mayo, rather than trading him for a pitcher before or during any of the 2023, 2024, or 2025 seasons, points when he had a lot of value as a prospect. All of this was so that he could step up now. He’s not given much reason to show that his success from last September can be repeated.

Samuel Basallo

• Am I worried? No

In contrast to Mayo, you can find a decent amount of red on Basallo’s Statcast profile. He is swinging the bat fast and hitting the ball hard, though he doesn’t yet have much to show for it. Although he’s chasing a lot of pitches out of the zone, he’s also drawing a lot of walks. This is a 21-year-old player who should be given some allowance for growing pains as a player. That doesn’t mean the Orioles have to bat him 4th or 5th every game while he sorts it out. I blame Elias for that one.

Blaze Alexander

• Am I worried? No, if only because there’s no point worrying about a player like this
• Should Elias be blamed? Yes

Alexander played in 135 games with the Diamondbacks across the previous two seasons and gave indications that he would be a guy whose bat is just on the right side of “not bad” as long as he is able to provide decent defensive value at multiple positions. With his .542 OPS so far this year, he’s hitting much worse than that. This was the guy Elias went out and got once the injuries started to mount in his infield before spring training even began. Expected batting stats point to a turnaround coming for Alexander. Hopefully that bears out.

Dylan Beavers

• Am I worried? Yes
• Should Elias be blamed? Yes

Pretty much nothing is going right for Beavers so far other than that he isn’t swinging out of the strike zone much or swinging and missing much. He isn’t hitting the ball well, or hard. Maybe the most disheartening to me is how bad he’s looked in the field, coming in at 4th percentile in range despite also having 96th percentile sprint speed. This is a fast player who is getting no defensive value even with that speed. Elias went out of his way to call up Beavers later last year to preserve his rookie eligibility and maybe have a shot at contending for Rookie of the Year this year. So far, that looks like a joke.

Colton Cowser

• Am I worried? Yes
• Should Elias be blamed? Yes

The thing with Cowser and swinging and missing at nearly every changeup that he sees is beyond parody. That’s a comic second-tier character in a Major League-type movie, except in the movie he would actually overcome the flaw as the team improves thanks to some absurd training regimen. Maybe Cowser should try to figure out if he can break his changeup curse by building a very specific Lego set while blindfolded or with one hand tied behind his back.

Cowser is also Elias’s guy. The Orioles reached to draft him in the first round in 2021. We saw in his rookie season some signs of a perennial pretty good player. He has not been able to follow up on this. I don’t blame Elias entirely for this, but I do think he needed a better “what if Cowser keeps struggling” backup plan ready and he didn’t have one.

Shane Baz

• Am I worried? Not really
• Should Elias be blamed? If the problems continue

It doesn’t feel good that the Orioles gave up four prospects plus a draft pick for this guy, then gave him a $68 million extension before he’d ever thrown a pitch for the team, and after four starts he has a 4.91 ERA. He’s having rotten batted ball luck (.364 BABIP) that may be real bad luck or may be about the defense behind him. I’m willing to believe that things may still click for him. I understand the frustrations in the meantime. It’s one more Elias move from the offseason that’s bearing no immediate fruit.

Kyle Bradish

• Am I worried? No
• Should Elias be blamed? No

Bradish looked like he would be able to pick up close to where he left off before his Tommy John surgery in six starts after returning last year. That hasn’t carried forward into 2026; Bradish has battled command problems and he’s getting rocked in a way we haven’t seen from him since the bad days of his early career.

Even moreso than Baz, I think you can point to the defense behind him costing him a lot. Take away the two earned runs from Weston Wilson’s botch being scored a triple on Sunday and Bradish’s ERA shaves down to 4.58. That still doesn’t feel good, but it would feel better than 5.49. The Fielding Independent Pitching metric, an ERA analogue that tries to take defense out of the equation, has Bradish at 3.22 so far. We could live with Bradish at a 3.22 ERA.

Chris Bassitt

• Am I worried? Yes
• Should Elias be blamed? Yes

Elias could have invested real money in a starting pitcher in free agency this offseason and instead he went for two one-year guys, Bassitt and Zach Eflin. Obviously, Eflin is done already and that sucks; I don’t blame Elias for an elbow injury. That could have happened to any other pitcher he signed.

Bassitt, through three starts, is on the Charlie Morton path. When you have to try to feel good about, “Well, he only gave up one earned run in 4.2 innings,” that’s a bad place to be. It’s early and he’s only got to make like two good starts in a row to quiet some of the doubters. He’s got to actually do it. If he never does, this is a big strike against Elias. Building a consistently good rotation has proved elusive for him.

Tyler Wells

• Am I worried? Yes
• Should Elias be blamed? Yes

One of my observations about the Orioles over the years is that just about every season, there’s one reliever who you don’t expect to suck who suddenly is no good. The year-to-year volatility of relievers is one of those trends of the modern game. It looks a lot like Wells is that guy this year. I think the Orioles constructed their roster assuming that Wells would be able to take the eighth or ninth inning. If he flames out spectacularly, that’s a big evaluation failure.

If other players are able to step up, maybe Elias won’t have to shoulder too much blame for this. Indeed, as far as the bullpen goes, there’s not a lot of blame to shoulder so far: The Orioles bullpen is ninth in ERA at 3.52, even with Wells plus a couple of clunkers in Yaramil Hiraldo and Nick Raquet.

The defense

• Am I worried? Yes
• Should Elias be blamed? YES

You will probably not be surprised to learn that the Orioles are a bottom five defense in the league so far, as measured by Statcast’s Outs Above Average. Quite unexpectedly, the only places they’ve been okay are the infield corners, first and third base. The whole outfield is in the negatives. Second base and shortstop are negative.

This was one area of the roster where anyone should have been concerned heading into the season. A regular outfield alignment of Taylor Ward, Cowser, and Tyler O’Neill was always going to be bad. Ward has made people happy with his hitting so far, but he showed his poor defense on Opening Day and that’s not changed. He’s slow and he can’t make plays an average left fielder would make. Beavers struggling in the field early on was an unexpected problem.

If you wrangled a genie and used up one of your wishes on having the opportunity to ask Mike Elias questions to which he must give truthful answers, I think that genie-compelled Elias would admit that he always expected some defensive problems this year. There were supposed to be other trade-offs to make up for that defensive weakness, particularly guys hitting dingers. The bad defenders who are annoying you the most are not hitting dingers. Nor is anyone other than Gunnar Henderson and Jeremiah Jackson. Other than Ward, the offenders for bad defense aren’t hitting much at all.

The injuries

• Am I worried? Yes
• Should Elias be blamed? Eh

The Orioles are once again among the league leaders in players who are on the injured list. That feels like a problem, and if a problem exists then someone should be blamed for it. Whether the Orioles are doing something problematic in their strength and conditioning that is leading to being a more injury-prone team is beyond the knowledge of any fan.

There are some real freak injuries in the assortment. Dietrich Enns with a foot infection? Tyler O’Neill gave himself a concussion from passing out from dehydration while sick? Ryan Mountcastle broke a bone in his foot while running the bases? Jackson Holliday broke his hamate bone while swinging just before spring training even started?

It is up to a general manager to assemble depth that is competent to handle some unexpected problems. Elias probably thought he had this. I’m sure he knew O’Neill would hit the IL some time this year: That would have meant easier playing time for Beavers, and Leody Taveras is around to back things up too. Taveras has been great so far. Beavers has not.

Elias went and got Alexander when he learned about Jordan Westburg’s injury, and Jeremiah Jackson was around when Holliday was hurt. Mayo was in the mix. Even the Adley Rutschman injury, theoretically that would mean, okay, it’s Basallo’s time to shine. Which isn’t happening yet. Elias has two of his projected bullpen guys on the IL in Keegan Akin and Andrew Kittredge.

I think the Orioles should have probably signed another real reliever other than Helsley, probably instead of re-acquiring Kittredge, but guys are stepping up in the bullpen so far. Anthony Nunez has looked great. Rico Garcia is also off to a strong start. Even Yennier Cano has rediscovered something positive in the early results.

**

If the Orioles don’t make the playoffs this year, I think that’s a sign that Elias’s plan has failed and he should be fired. In that event, it would be clear that he does not have it in him to build a sustained talent pipeline and supplement that internal pipeline with useful players from outside the organization.

We are 19 games into the season and there is no certainty that the Orioles will remain on their current path. All of this feels worse because many of their problems do feel like they’re carrying over from last year, this despite having a new manager, new hitting coaches, and a decent amount of roster turnover. It should have been better than this, and so far it’s not. That’s not fun. Elias at the top is the big constant here.

Still, it’s early to give up on the team. The 2014 Orioles were below .500 as late as May 30, 53 games into their season. They finished 96-66. There is plenty of time for things to still come together for the 2026 Orioles. Of course, there was plenty of time for things to come together for the 2025 Orioles at this time a year ago, and we know that they never did.

The San Diego Padres erased the memories of the season-opening homestand where they got off to a 2-4 start against the Detroit Tigers and the San Francisco Giants with a perfect second homestand that saw them get back-to-back sweeps of the Colorado Rockies and the Seattle Mariners. The Padres have won games throughout the season in multiple ways which have been nerve wracking and exciting at the same time. The win against the Mariners on Thursday neither – it was just a solid baseball game with a good start from Walker Buehler, a competent offensive approach and a stingy bullpen anchored by Mason Miller, who moved into second place in San Diego franchise history with 30 2/3 innings without allowing a run, which resulted in a 5-2 victory. The Padres go on the road today to face the Los Angeles Angels at 6:38 p.m.

Padres News:

• Luis Campusano has been a key contributor throughout the seven-game homestand. His recent success and his 2026 season overall appear to be a credit to the confidence his manager Craig Stammen has in him and his reformed approach to the game.

• Griffin Canning appears to be getting closer to making his season debut with the Padres after another rehab start in El Paso.

• Sung-Mun Song was activated off the IL and was optioned to Triple-A El Paso. It is understandable that San Diego would not want to shake up the lineup that is in the midst of an eight-game winning streak.

• Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune says MLB and ABS inadvertently helped the Padres offense by shrinking the strike zone, leading to an improved offense.

Baseball News:;

• The Angels and New York Yankees engaged in a heavyweight fight throughout their series, which resulted in both sides hitting home runs at an impressive rate and superstars Mike Trout and Aaron Judge captivating fans on both sides.

• Parker Messick takes no-hitter into the ninth to help the Guardians get a 4-2 win over the Baltimore Orioles.

• The St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants completed their tense series with the benches clearing following the final out.

Bowling Green Hot Rods 9, Greenville Drive 8 (BOX)

Unfortunately, the story of the day in this one was Juan Valera’s elbow. After beginning to pop up on top-100 MLB prospect lists, Valera left the game after one inning with inflammation in his pitching elbow. Chris Cotillo has more detail here. Valera was off to an electric start, with 17 strikeouts in 9 1/3 innings to start the season. He also missed more than half the season a year ago with an elbow injury.

After his departure, the Hot Rods (TB) pulled out a wild back-and-forth affair on Thursday night in Greenville.

Last year, I made my pitch for the movie Hot Rod being rather underrated. This year, I’m pushing for professional athletes to go back to the nickname “Hot Rod”. There was Rodney “Hot Rod” Hundley who was the first overall pick in the 1957 NBA draft, played his whole career for the Lakers, and was a broadcaster after retirement. John “Hot Rod” Williams played in the NBA from 1986-1999, mostly for the Cavaliers.

We’re long overdue for a lightning-fast MLB player who points finger-guns into the air after sliding in for an extra-base hit.

For the Drive in the loss, Yoeilin Cespedes went yard twice on the day, with both coming off another 80-grade name in pitcher Gary Gill Hill. Yophery Rodriguez homered twice as well, knocking in five runs on the day.

Henry Godbout and Mason White each contributed two hits.

Kyson Witherspoon (0-1, 6.14) will get the ball on Friday night at 6:45.

Portland Sea Dogs 7, Altoona Curve 0 (BOX)

The Altoona Curve (PIT) are 0-12 to start the season, and Thursday’s game was more of the same. Sea Dogs starter Eduardo Rivera struck out nine batters over 5 2/3 innings, allowing three hits to get the win in his second straight strong start. Joe Vogatsky got the ever-popular three-inning save (plus one out), preserving the shutout.

On the offensive side, Max Ferguson had the biggest blast of the night on a grand slam.

Marvin Alcantara also added a solo shot, part of his three-hit day.

Portland has not announced a starter for 6:00 ET this evening.

Hickory Crawdads 14, Salem RidgeYaks 5 (BOX)

RidgeYaks pitching got hit early and often yesterday by the Crawdads (TEX), beginning with starter Dylan Brown, who allowed 11 baserunners and six runs in 3 1/3 innings.

Offensively, right fielder Andrews Opata had three RBIs, including a solo home run.

Madinson Frias (0-0, 12.60) will take the bump on Friday at 7:00.

Worcester Red Sox at Nashville Sounds (Suspended, 0-0, Top 4^th inn.)

Starters Jake Bennett for the Woo Sox and Thomas Pannone for the Sounds (MIL) each threw three shutout innings before the game was suspended in the top of the fourth inning.

The game will be continued, followed by the regularly scheduled game, at 7:05 ET on Friday, with pitching matchups yet to be determined.

This Cubs homestand is an old NL East flashback — Mets and Phillies! Just like it was the 1970s or 1980s again.

Obviously, that’s just a bit of nostalgia. In the meantime, this seven-game homestand seems important for the Cubs to begin to set a tone at Wrigley Field, where they are just 4-5 so far this year.

Here’s more on the Mets from Chris McShane, manager of our SB Nation Mets site Amazin’ Avenue.

If you wanted to draw up a nightmare season for David Stearns, it would pretty much look exactly like this. We keep reminding ourselves that it’s still incredibly early, but you can’t help but worry that this will be a lost season when your team loses eight games in a row by the middle of April. And even with the lineup being the team’s biggest problem right now, it felt all too fitting that Devin Williams had his first terrible outing as a Met in the team’s series finale in Los Angeles, turning a game that would’ve involved Edwin Díaz coming in for a save opportunity against the Mets into a blowout that no longer required his services.

Not every player who Stearns jettisoned is off to a hot start, but of the five new faces that were in the Mets’ lineup on Opening Day, only Luis Robert Jr. is hitting above league average so far this season. The rotation has major question marks after David Peterson’s recent run of bad starts and Kodai Senga’s particularly awful start his last time out. And after emphasizing run prevention early in the offseason as the team said goodbye to Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, and Jeff McNeil, the Mets’ defense looks anything but sharp as there are several players learning new positions on the job.

Things can’t get much worse than they are right now, but there’s no optimism about this team at the moment.

Fun facts

The Cubs’ next win against the Mets will be their 400th in the rivalry, which began in 1962. They have lost 379 and tied two, for a winning percentage of .513. While the Cubs have earned 20 more wins, in all 780 games they have been outscored, by seven runs, 3,372 to 3,365.

They are 213-181-1, .541, vs. the Mets at home, but lost two of three each of the last two seasons and are 5-8 since 2022.

(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

Probable pitching matchups

Friday: Edward Cabrera, RHP (1-0, 1.62 ERA, 1.140 WHIP, 3.22 FIP) vs. Kodai Senga, RHP (0-2, 7.07 ERA, 1.714 WHIP, 3.80 FIP)

Saturday: Jameson Taillon, RHP (0-1, 4.86 ERA, 1.260 WHIP, 6.28 FIP) vs. Freddy Peralta, RHP (1-1, 3.86 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 3.92 FIP)

Sunday: Javier Assad, RHP (1-1, 8.10 ERA, 1.600 WHIP, 5.76 FIP) vs. David Peterson, LHP (0-3, 6.41 ERA, 1.831 WHIP, 3.36 FIP)

Times & TV channels

Friday: 1:20 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, MLB Network (outside the Cubs and Mets market territories)

Saturday: 1:20 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, MLB Network (outside the Cubs and Mets market territories)

Sunday: 1:20 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Prediction

As Chris McShane noted above, the Mets are an absolute mess right now, having lost eight in a row. They’ve been outscored 44-12 in those eight games.

I’d like to see the Cubs keep that streak going. Let’s just say two of three here.

Up next

The Cubs meet the Phillies again, this time at Wrigley Field. It’s a four-game series beginning Monday evening.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers head to Coors Field for a four-game series with the Colorado Rockies beginning Friday night.

Tyler Glasnow gets the nod for the visitors in the series opener, while Tomoyuki Sugano toes the rubber for the home team.

My Dodgers vs. Rockies predictions and MLB picks for Friday, April 17 see a low-scoring game unfolding in frigid conditions.

Who will win Dodgers vs Rockies tonight: Dodgers (-291)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are a warranted heavy favorite given their advantages over the Colorado Rockies in starting pitching, relief pitching, and hitting. 

Tyler Glasnow has strong underlying metrics (2.60 xERA, 2.83 FIP) and a 107 Stuff+, whereas Tomoyuki Sugano has a worrisome 4.98 xERA and 5.39 FIP. Sugano’s 82 Stuff+ ranks 178th out of 184 pitchers who have started a game. 

L.A. has the more effective and better-rested bullpen after Thursday’s off day. Its lineup is tops in the league against right-handed pitching (135 wRC+), whereas Colorado lags well behind (80 wRC+). 

COVERS INTEL: Glasnow has dominated the Rockies, holding their projected lineup to just three hits in 29 at-bats (.103) with 15 strikeouts.

Dodgers vs Rockies Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (-107)

The Rockies have cashed the Under in 12 of their 19 games this season. With temperatures between 35 and 40 degrees at Coors Field, Friday could be another low-scoring contest. 

Glasnow, combined with a well-rested bullpen, should limit a punchless Rockies lineup.

Sugano managed to outperform his underlying metrics a year ago (4.64 ERA, 5.79 xERA), and that’s been the case again through three starts (2.16 ERA, 4.98 xERA). 

He’ll certainly experience regression given his .136 BABIP and 100% left-on-base rate, but his surface-level statistics (four earned runs in 16 2/3 innings) indicate that he’s at least in good form.

Dodgers vs Rockies odds

• Moneyline: Dodgers -291 | Rockies +240
• Run line: Dodgers -1.5 | Rockies +1.5
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5

Dodgers vs Rockies trend

The Rockies have cashed the Under in four of their last five home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Rockies.

How to watch Dodgers vs Rockies and game info

Dodgers vs Rockies latest injuries

Dodgers vs Rockies weather

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The Yankees were Mike Trout-ed once again on Thursday. The future Hall-of-Famer walked twice and homered for the fifth (!!) time of the series. Against a not-great Angels team, the Bombers could only manage a split in the four-game series at home. But, life goes on, as does other action around the American League. Let’s take a look at what happened on Thursday.

Toronto Blue Jays (7-11) 1, Milwaukee Brewers (10-8) 2

For a second consecutive game, the Blue Jays lost to the Brewers by a score of 2-1. Toronto actually put a tally in the run column first in this one, when Taylor Heineman laid down a perfect safety squeeze to kick off scoring in the third inning. The Brewers manufactured a run of their own an inning later, thanks to a Luis Rengifo sacrifice fly, but outside of that, the bats were quiet on both sides.

That was thanks, in large part, to excellent starting efforts on the mound. Patrick Corbin tossed 5.2 innings of one-run ball, striking out six for the Blue Jays. Out of the other dugout, Milwaukee’s Darren Sproat produced a remarkably similar line over 6.2 frames. Both starters allowed one run on four hits while striking out six.

In the spirit of how this game shaped up, the decisive run came via some small ball once again. This time, a retaliatory squeeze bunt from Joey Ortiz scored the go-ahead run for the Brew Crew in the seventh inning. As things would have it, that would be the play that decided the game, as the Jays dropped another one, 2-1.

Houston Astros (8-12) 2, Colorado Rockies (6-12) 3

With the loss Thursday, the Astros officially lost the season series with the Rockies, a deal every other team in the Junior Circuit would happily sign up for. Houston jumped out to an early lead thanks to RBI hits from Yordan Alvarez and Joey Loperfido, but that would be all the noise the Houston bats would be able to make.

Following that, Colorado’s bulk guy Chase Dollander was terrific, allowing just one hit and striking out nine across 5.1 scoreless innings out of the ‘pen.

The Rockies made their charge in the middle innings, with runs in each of the third through fifth innings. An RBI knock and a run-scoring double play sandwiched Hunter Goodman’s fifth homer of the season, a solo shot in the fourth inning off of Houston’s Ryan Weiss.

By dropping another game, to the lowly Rockies no less, the Astros find themselves knotted up in last place in the AL West.

Seattle Mariners (8-12) 2, San Diego Padres (13-6) 5

Right down there with the Astros in the West basement is the Mariners, who took a lost to an NL West opponent on Thursday as well.

Luis Castillo struggled in his fourth outing on the season, as the Padres plated four runs in the first inning, and the right-hander eventually exited in the sixth inning having walked three and allowed seven hits. The damage San Diego did early came thanks to a couple of timely hits, punctuated by Fernando Tatis Jr.’s two-run single to make it 4-0.

On the mound for the Dads, Walker Buehler did a nice job across five innings of work, allowing just a pair of runs and striking out seven. The Mariner’s lone action on offense came in the sixth, when Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez each managed RBI singles, but it wasn’t enough to match the early output of the Padres.

Like the Astros, the M’s drop to 8-12, and find themselves in a bit of a hole to kick off the 2026 season.

Other Games

Detroit Tigers (10-9) 10, Kansas City Royals (7-12) 9: The Tigers took home a slugfest to crawl above .500 on Thursday. Five different Detroit batters recorded multiple hits in this one, which included three from Riley Greene and a two-run blast from Dillon Dingler. The Royals staged a comeback in the seventh, scoring six runs led by a three-run dinger from Salvador Perez. Suddenly trailing 9-7 in the last of the ninth, a clutch double from Greene tied the game up, and he was later scored thanks to Colt Keith’s walk-off knock.

Cleveland Guardians (11-9) 4, St. Louis Cardinals (10-9) 2: Contrary to the other AL Central winner on Thursday, the Guardians took one home thanks largely to some terrific pitching. José Ramírez led the scoring charge with a two-run blast in the first, but the story of the night was Parker Messick. In his 11th career start, the lefty delivered his finest work, ultimately taking a no-hitter into the ninth inning against the Cardinals. He finished on the hook for two runs in the ninth, but he pitched a near-perfect eight innings, allowing just two hits and striking out nine in the win.

Good morning everyone and happy Friday!

The Mariners dropped the series finale to the Padres last night, completing San Diego’s sweep in the first leg of the 2026 Vedder Cup. The team heads back home to open a new series tonight against the first-place Texas Rangers.

As we’re now 20 games into the season, which AL West team are you the most afraid of moving forward? The Rangers are in first place, though the Angels are seeing a rejuvenated Mike Trout, the A’s are an up-and-coming team that might be more competitive than expected, and the Astros are…also there.

In Mariners news…

• Max Ellingsen concluded the countdown of the Mariners’ top prospects by taking a look at No. 1 prospect Colt Emerson.
• The ESPN staff went behind the scenes on how the Ichiro statue was built and revealed.

Around the league…

• Padres right-hander Nick Pivetta is set to miss “weeks and maybe months” as he deals with a flexor strain in his right elbow.
• Former Mariner Justin Turner signed a deal with the Tijuana Toros of the Mexican Baseball League.
• Ben Clemens dug into the breakout of Twins right-hander Taj Bradley. It’s not every day a pitcher gets better after leaving the Rays, after all.
• Charlie Wright at MLBTR wonders if after all of this time, Mike Trout is back.
• Michael Baumann at Fangraphs provided an analysis of the extensions-for-young-players trend and wonders what kind of impact it will have on the sport.
• Eno Sarris at The Athletic updated his rest-of-season starting pitcher rankings. ($)

Morning everyone and welcome to another Friday!

Yesterday the A’s wrapped up their four-game series with the Texas Rangers, splitting the series and remaining in a tie atop the AL West. Not the best outcome but certainly not the worst. Now these two teams will split up and face a couple other teams before seeing each other again next weekend in Texas. Who will be in first place at that point?

Looking ahead to the next series, we welcome the Chicago White Sox to town for a weekend three-game set. Chicago has been one of the worst teams in baseball history over the past two seasons, and while they are back at the bottom of the AL Central with a 6-13 record they seem to have a bit more fight in them than the past couple of years. Can’t ever take a game for granted but the A’s should have the goal of taking at least two of three against the South Siders, with a sweep being the ultimate goal.

Tonight’s game will feature right-hander Aaron Civale on the bump for what will be his fourth start in an Athletics uniform. He’s gotten off to a terrific start with his new team as he’s gone at least five innings in each of his starts, which is exactly what the team was hoping for. They’re probably surprised at Civale’s ability so far this season to avoid giving up runs: he’s allowed just three baserunners to cross home plate in 15 2/3 innings of work. The team will be hoping he can keep that up against Chicago, who will be sending fellow righty Davis Martin to the mound to kick off the series for them. Martin has been arguably their best starter in the early going as he’ll bring a 2.50 ERA in three starts so far this year.

After that Friday night matchup it’ll be Luis Severino versus Erick Fedde on Saturday afternoon followed by a matchup between Jeffrey Springs against Noah Shultz on Sunday. That’ll be Schultz’s second career major league game so an excellent chance to jump on a fresh-faced rookie. The pitching matchups favor the Athletics all series but you still gotta go out there and play the games. Severino has had major home struggles so perhaps Saturday is the day he can begin turning that around.

On another note, two of the organization’s top pitching prospects got starts yesterday and did not disappoint. Left-handers Jamie Arnold and Gage Jump both had Thursday assignments and both posted quality outings. Jump, pitching at Triple-A Las Vegas and making his third start, collected eight strikeouts against just one walk in 4 1/3 innings of work. He allowed a pair of runs on four hits but he’s still sporting a pristine 2.61 ERA through three (short) starts. The team is clearly being cautious as they ramp up the young lefty but this was his longest outing of the year as he got up to 80 pitches. The current major league rotation is full and no one other than Severino is truly struggling so there’s no obvious opening but the team must be happy with how Jump is handling his first taste of Triple-A. Maybe if Jacob Lopez’s struggles get worse the team may elect to press fast forward towards the future a little earlier than expected.

As for Arnold, the 22-year-old southpaw had an even better performance a level lower in Double-A. In 3 1/3 innings of work (remember, slow ramp up for these two) Arnold punched out 7 of the 10 outs he collected, not allowing a run compared to just one walk. Many expected Arnold to be a fast riser through the system and so far in his first three starts as a professional, he hasn’t done anything to dispel that belief. It’s starting to feel like a foregone conclusion that we will see not only Jump at some point this season but Arnold as well. We’ll see if the A’s get aggressive with these two if they’re still in a playoff race but the smart money would be on seeing these guys in the Green & Gold sooner than later.

That’s all we have today everyone. Game tonight at 6:40. Until then, have a great day everyone!

A’s Coverage:

• Bullpen and Wind Sink A’s Shot at Series Win
• A’s out-hit Rangers in 6-5 victory
• Today Is A Day Of Special Meaning — For More Than One Reason
• Denzel and Co. add to highlight reel as A’s defense turns away Rangers
• A’s top prospect Leo De Vries pops his first two homers of the season at Double-A
• A’s Beat Rangers 2-1, Tied For First in AL West
• A’s roster moves: Rooker to IL, Gelof recalled
• A’s roster moves: Jack Perkins recalled, Michael Kelly optioned
• Luis Morales Optioned to Triple-A
• Armchair 101: The Challenge Of Judging Decisions In Real Time
• AN Exclusive: Blogfather Observes The Wild Denzelope In Its Natural Habitat
• AN Exclusive: Blogfather Toes The Rubber With Pitching Coach Scott Emerson
• AN Exclusive: Blogfather Catches Up With Starting Pitcher Jacob Lopez

MLB News and Interest:

• So close! No-hit bid by Guardians rookie Messick broken up by O’s in 9th inning
• Padres’ Sale Nearing Conclusion
• Mike Trout’s FIFTH home run of series is most by visiting player ever vs. Yankees
• Mike Trout Might Be Back
• Yankees’ Gerrit Cole set to make first rehab start Friday
• Orioles Trade Chayce McDermott To Dodgers
• Dodgers spent an MLB record $515M in 2025
• Drone sightings at Coors Field prompt warning from authorities
• Padres Option Sung-Mun Song
• Sources: MLBPA fires COO, human resources head with cause
• Braves Designate Osvaldo Bido
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

Lopez’s leash getting shorter?

Disappointing considering he needs every hit he can possibly get. He had time for jokes earlier this week about his lack of hitting skills, but this wasn’t funny to watch:

ICYMI:

Tough way to see your no-no end, even if you’re just a rookie:

Who else misses Stephen Vogt?

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It’s a jam-packed 15-game slate across the majors today, and I’ve dug deep to find the top MLB player props. I’ll include CJ Abrams, Andy Pages, and Yordan Alvarez. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, April 17. 

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
CJ Abrams	1+ RBI	+185
Andy Pages	1+ runs	-110
Yordan Alvarez	1+ runs	-150

CJ Abrams 1+ RBI (+185)

CJ Abrams is off to a red-hot start this season. He’s hitting .371 in 18 games with six home runs and 19 RBI, which ranks second in the big leagues.

The youngster has collected an RBI in three of his last five contests, and the Washington Nationals will face San Francisco Giants righty Logan Webb tonight. 

Webb has struggled out of the gates, posting a 5.25 ERA so far. While Abrams is just 2-for-14 lifetime against Webb, he’s driven in two runs.

Webb gave up four earned runs last time out, and Abrams is the engine of this Nats offense. Eight of his RBI have come at home as well. 

• Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSBA, Nationals.TV

Andy Pages 1+ runs (-110)

Andy Pages has been one of the biggest surprises of this young season so far. He leads the MLB in batting average, hits, and RBI.

The Cuban-born outfielder has been coming across the plate himself a lot more lately, however, recording a run in two of his last three games. Pages has five hits across his last five appearances as well.

He’s putting himself in a great position to let his teammates do their thing and drive him in. Pages and the Los Angeles Dodgers are at Coors Field tonight taking on the Colorado Rockies. L.A. is hitting .283 with RISP. 

• Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SNLA, Rockies.TV

Yordan Alvarez 1+ runs (-150)

A healthy Yordan Alvarez is simply good for the game. The slugger is a force to be reckoned with offensively, and he’s doing it all right now. He’s hitting .328 with seven homers, 18 RBI, and 16 runs.

Alvarez has come across the plate four times over the last three games. The Cuban also has four hits during that span, and he’s up against Kyle Leahy of the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. Alvarez is 2-for-2 lifetime vs. Leahy with two hits.

The Astros are also batting .264 with RISP. 

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Cardinals.TV, SCHN

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

There’s no real way to answer this, but give me your take anyway. I think this is kind of a funny situation.

The Braves have the guys they think are the Good Relievers: Tyler Kinley, Dylan Lee, Robert Suarez, Raisel Iglesias. Maybe Aaron Bummer is in that group, maybe not, I’m not sure yet. But then there’s everyone else, who largely exists to throw mop-up and get shuttled off the roster for a fresh mop-up arm. That creates a bit of a situation, because by virtue of throwing mop-up and getting shuttled off the roster, it’s hard to prove to the team that you should be getting higher-leverage work. The only way to “fall into” higher leverage work is to enter a blowout, have the offense get the Braves back in it, but then stick around and keep pitching in a closer game.

So, without going into all the considerations: do you think any pitcher in the organization breaks into the quartet/quintet of Good Relievers Used Accordingly this season?

EDITOR’S NOTE: A version of this article appeared here on the 42nd anniversary of this event, eight years ago. Since it’s now been exactly half a century since Mike Schmidt’s four-homer game at Wrigley Field, I thought you might like to read about that day again. Here’s a lightly edited version of the 2018 article.

Fifty years ago today, it was 84 degrees at game time for a contest between the Cubs and Phillies at Wrigley Field with a wind blowing out at 20 miles per hour.

As you might imagine, that sent quite a few baseballs heading toward the Wrigley Field bleachers that Saturday afternoon, April 17, 1976.

The Cubs used that wind to produce an 11-run lead. My friends, that lead did not last.

The Cubs hit three home runs by the fourth inning: two by Rick Monday and one by Steve Swisher. Two of the three homers were off future Hall of Famer Steve Carlton, who didn’t make it out of the second inning, allowing seven hits, two walks and seven runs.

All of that gave the Cubs a 13-2 lead after four innings. A no-brainer fun win, right?

Well, no. These were the 1976 Cubs, who would bottom out at 19 games under .500 (39-58) on July 26, before playing a bit better the rest of the way (36-29, perhaps presaging a good start the following year. From July 27, 1976 through June 28, 1977 the Cubs were 83-51, one of the best long stretches in franchise history).

Anyway, most of what happened the rest of that long-ago afternoon was courtesy of another future Hall of Famer, Mike Schmidt.

Cubs starter Rick Reuschel actually retired Schmidt in his first at-bat, in the second inning. (Amazingly, Schmidt batted sixth in that Phillies lineup.) Schmidt singled in the fourth and was forced out, but the Phillies scored their first run.

He came up again with a runner on and two out in the fifth and homered. That made the score 13-4.

It was still 13-4 in the top of the seventh. The Phillies had already scored twice when Schmidt batted with two out and no one on base. He homered again, cutting the Cubs’ lead to six.

A six-run lead heading to the bottom of the seventh. What could possibly go wrong? (You likely already know the answer to that question.)

In the top of the eighth, Dick Allen singled in two runs with the bases loaded to make it 13-9. By this time Mike Garman had replaced Reuschel. It mattered not. Schmidt smashed his third homer of the game, this one a three-run shot, and suddenly it’s a one-run game, 13-12.

Darold Knowles relieved Garman. Knowles, famed for his work in the 1973 World Series for the Athletics, did not have a good outing on this windy day. Another homer — this one by Bob Boone — tied the game, and Knowles allowed two more runs in the inning, so the Cubs now trailed 15-13.

The Cubs weren’t done, though. With two out and runners on second and third in the ninth, Swisher singled in both and the game headed to extra innings tied 15-15.

With one out in the top of the 10th and a runner on base, Schmidt came to the plate [VIDEO].

Schmidt’s fourth homer of the game — and remember, he didn’t hit his first until the fifth inning — was off Rick Reuschel’s brother Paul, and the Phillies scored once more to make it 18-15. (That’s the WGN radio call on the video, with Vince Lloyd and Lou Boudreau.)

This game — which eventually ran three hours, 41 minutes — wasn’t quite done. With two out in the last of the 10th, Bill Madlock doubled in Mike Adams — the only run Adams scored as a Cub — and Jerry Morales stepped to the plate as the potential tying run.

Phillies manager Danny Ozark called on Jim Lonborg, normally a starter. Lonborg got Morales to ground out, and posted one of just four saves he had in his big-league career. Here’s how Tribune writer Richard Dozer recapped this game:

The combined delights of hitting behind a 20 mile-an-hour wind in Wrigley Field against a Cub pitching staff that only a foe could love thrust Mike Schmidt, the National League home run champion, full force into the big league record book Saturday.

Schmidt smashed four consecutive home runs to set a modern National League record. With them, he drove across eight runs and dragged the Philadelphia Phillies off the floor to an incredible 18-16 victory in 10 innings before 28,287 shellshocked spectators.

Unbelievably defeated in this one, the staggered Cubs actually were ahead at one stage by a 13-2 score. But while Philadelphia pitchers were knocking down Cub hitters to gain a measure of respect Cub hurlers rarely attain, the whipped Chicagoans were overtaken in a three-run Philadelphia ninth.

The Cubs thus lost a game they’d led by 11 runs — and by six going into the eighth! — by that 18-16 score.

Half a century later, the 11-run blown lead still stands as the biggest in National League history. (There have been a couple of AL games where a 12-run lead was blown.)

It all happened 50 years ago today, Saturday, April 17, 1976.

Columbus Clippers 10, Iowa Cubs 11

Clippers fall to 9-9

Columbus made a valiant effort to battle back in this one after falling behind 5-0, but the Clippers fell one run shy in extra innings Thursday.

Travis Bazzana had a spectacular game, going 3-for-6 with two doubles. He’s currently riding a six-game hitting streak with four multi-hit games in his last five. Don’t look now, but he’s really starting to figure it out at Triple-A.

C.J. Kayfus also had a three-hit game, going 3-for-5 with a double and a walk. Stuart Fairchild went 2-for-5 with a double and a hit by pitch while Kody Huff went 2-for-4 with two doubles.

Dayan Frias hit his first home run of the season while Milan Tolentino had a two-run double.

Starting pitcher Ryan Webb was tagged for seven runs (six earned) on nine hits with four walks and just one strikeout in 5.0 innings of work.

Will Dion was solid in relief, tossing 2.0 scoreless innings.

Daniel Espino gave up his first run of the season, a solo home run, but he also topped 100 mph with his fastball three times. His slider was over 94 mph and his changeup was over 93. His stuff is getting filthier every time we see him and I’m legitimately getting excited for what he’s going to be able to do as long as he continues to stay healthy.

Steven Perez pitched a scoreless ninth inning, giving Columbus the chance to send the game to extra innings — which it did — but then he was hammered for three runs in the top of the 10th. Columbus managed to score two back, but the rally fell just short.

Akron RubberDucks 5, Harrisburg Senators 0 (F/7)

RubberDucks improve to 8-4

Akron continues to get excellent pitching and timely hitting as the RubberDucks own their third straight game. This time, it was starting pitcher Josh Hartle who had himself a game.

Hartle tossed 5.1 shutout two-hit innings with seven strikeouts and three walks. The performance lowered his season ERA to 2.45.

Jay Driver completed the final 1.2 innings of the shutout in a rain-shortened game.

On offense, Angel Genao had a terrific game, going 2-for-3 with a double and a walk. Christian Knapczyk went 1-for-3 with a walk and Jake Fox went 3-for-4.

Alfonsin Rosario went 1-for-4, but his one hit was a huge one, a three-run home run in the seventh inning to help Akron seal the win. It was his fifth home run of the season.

Lake County Captains 3, Fort Wayne Tincaps 8

Captains fall to 5-6

You wouldn’t think it from the final score, but this was by far the best start of pitching prospect Jackson Humphries’ young career.

An eighth round draft pick out of high school in 2022, Humphries has historically struggled to throw strikes, but that wasn’t the case on Thursday. He pitched five innings, allowing one run on two hits with 10 strikeouts and 0 walks. Still just 21 years old, he’s yet another arm in a loaded Guardians system that’s worth keeping an eye on.

Unfortunately, the bullpen didn’t have Humphries’ back on Thursday. Sean Matson gave up two runs in 1.2 innings, Cam Schuelke gave up another run in his 1.1 innings and Logan McGuire was absolutely blistered for four runs in his lone inning of work to remove the Captains from contention.

Offensively, the Captains scored all of their runs on solo shots. Jaison Chourio had a strong game, going 2-for-4 with a home run and a walk. He’s now up to a rock solid season slashline of .273/.389/.523 through 11 games. If he keeps this up, he’ll be right back on track as a top outfield prospect in the loaded Guardians system.

Esteban Gonzalez also had a great game, going 3-for-4 with a home run. Dean Curley went 1-for-3 with a walk, a hit by pitch and a stolen base and Nolan Schubart went 1-for-4 with a double and a walk. Luke Hill went 1-for-2 with a walk and a hit by pitch.

Hill City Howlers 14, Wilson Warbirds 1

Howlers improve to 8-4

Hill City went absolutely ballistic this game, scoring 14 runs on a whopping 17 hits with seven walks. This is going to be fun to break down, especially the top of the batting order, who all had downright disgusting games.

Juneiker Caceres had an absolute monster game, going 3-for-5 with a three-run home run and a walk. After a slow start to the season, he now sports a solid .872 OPS.

Leadoff hitter Dauri Fernandez also was elite, going 4-for-6 with two doubles and a stolen base. Top teenage outfield prospect Robert Arias was moved up to No. 2 in the batting order and he responded by going 3-for-6 with a double, raising his season batting average to .308 in the process.

Anthony Martinez reached base safely three times, going 1-for-4 with two walks. Yelferth Castillo went 2-for-6 with a double and catcher Ty Howard walked three times and scored a pair of runs.

Jhorvic Abreus went 2-for-5 with a stolen base and Yaikel Mijares went 2-for-5.

The incredible offensive eruption buried the lede of some tremendous pitching performances from Hill City.

Top pitching prospect Joey Oakie had his best start of the 2026 season thus far, throwing 4.0 shutout innings of three-hit ball with seven strikeouts and just one walk.

Jervis Alfaro followed with 5.0 innings, allowing one run (zero earned) on two hits with five strikeouts and two walks to earn the win.

Good morning, LSB.

The Rangers won a spirited, comeback affair against the A’s yesterday.

Kennedi Landry writes about how the Rangers finally bested their mortal enemy, the wind.

Grant also writes about Gavin Collyer’s quick and efficient MLB debut.

Grant also looks at some streaking Rangers, good and bad.

Elsewhere MLB Pipeline lists the best defensive prospect from each team.

And Mike Trout is really good (again).

That’s all for this morning. The Rangers start up a new series with the Mariners tonight at 8:40 with Jacob The Grom on the mound for Texas.

Happy Friday!

The Phillies have plenty of early season problems, but perhaps one of the most concerning ones is the performance of Jesús Luzardo. 

Four starts into the season after signing a five year, $135M extension, Luzardo sports a 7.94 ERA in 22.2 innings. He’s allowed five or more runs in three of those starts, with the most recent edition being his 9 runs on 12 hits in just 5.1 IP shellacking at the hands of the Cubs. His struggles are reminiscent to the tipping pitches situation from last summer, but he insists that’s not the case now. 

So, what is the problem then? One of the first things to look at when a pitcher is struggling is the stuff. In this case, Luzardo’s stuff looks good and, in some cases, looks better than last year. He’s averaging 97.3 MPH on his fastball, a slight increase from 2025, his sweeper has a 49% whiff rate on 140 pitches, and his changeup has a 46.3% whiff rate on 77 pitches thrown so far. There’s nothing under the hood to suggest that Luzardo’s stuff has regressed, in fact there’s more evidence to show it’s slightly improved. 

Luzardo suggested in his post-game interview that some of the problem could be pitch usage and sequencing. Here we can see a noticeable change, at least in the small sample size of four starts. He’s greatly increased the usage of his sinker, up to 19.1% from 10.8% last year at the expense of his four-seam fastball. The four seamer has fallen from his most used pitch at 33.3% to 24.1%, being overtaken by the sweeper for most used. Last season, Luzardo used the fastball and sweeper at similar rates, 33.3% and 32.1% respectively. So far in 2026, he’s tried to incorporate the sinker more into that mix at the expense of his regular fastball.

Elsewhere, his problems with runners on base have once again reared their ugly head. Opposing hitters are hitting .441 with five extra base hits including three home runs against Luzardo with runners on base. When the bases are empty, opposing hitters are hitting .220 with three doubles and 20 strikeouts to 3 walks. He’s also struggled mightily the second and third time through the order. Opponents are hitting .171 with a .394 OPS and 12 strikeouts to one walk against Luzardo the first time through a lineup. But the second time through, those numbers jump to a .281 AVG and .861 OPS. They soar even higher the third time through, with Luzardo getting pulverized to the tune of a .500 AVG and 1.231 OPS in a sample of 26 batters faced.

At least part of the explanation to this poor start for Luzardo is bad luck. He’s sitting on a league worst .417 BABIP (Cristopher Sánchez is second with .411), well above his .324 mark from last year and way above the league average of .288 so far in 2026. That suggests that Luzardo is due for at least some positive batted ball regression. There was some soft contact that found grass in his latest start, but there were also some hard-hit rockets among the balls in play he surrendered, including four balls at over 100 MPH in exit velocity. Nevertheless, his 86.2 MPH average exit velocity for the season so far is right in line with his 88.5 mark from 2025. 

It is still early, and Luzardo was able to rebound from a string of poor starts last year. His batted ball luck should normalize as the season goes on, but his struggles with runners on base is a trend that dates back to last season and was thought to have been fixed. So, is it time to worry about JesúsLuzardo? Or are you confident that he’ll be able to right the ship again?

It’s no lie to say that, even among a sea of flame-throwing MLB starters, Shane Baz’s talent stands out. He brings a four-pitch mix (technically, five, but he’s thrown the sinker exactly once this year, so I don’t quite believe in it) featuring a four-seam fastball that averages, even post-Tommy John, 97 mph, 84th percentile in the league. This is the same pitch that Baseball America awarded the best-in-organization grade for three years running in the Rays system, and his scouting reports long reflected that fact, plus the sheer talent.

Drafted 12th overall by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2017, Baz was packaged—somewhat infamously—as the PTBNL in the trade that sent Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows to Tampa Bay for Chris Archer. It is widely considered one of the worst deals in, at least, Pirates history. He was soon Tampa Bay’s No. 1 prospect, striking out a ridiculous 113 hitters in 78.2 innings as a Rays farmhand. Seems that the nickname “Wizard of Baz,” which has followed him since high school, was not unearned.

At the MLB level, his numbers never hit those levels of hype. His 2021 debut lasted all of three games, and his 2022 season was also marred by injuries, including surgery with Dr. Keith Meister (who’s also operated on Kyle Bradish and Zach Eflin). Tommy John cost Baz all of 2023, an oblique injury derailed his 2024 return, and only in 2025 did Baz finally make a full season’s worth of starts. The numbers weren’t the gaudiest: he made 31 starts for Tampa Bay in 2025, registering a 10-12 record and 4.87 ERA with 176 strikeouts.

His Statcast peripherals were, though, and those totals were enough to send the Orioles scavenging through their farm system cupboard to fund the biggest pitching acquisition of the Mike Elias era. Baltimore sent four prospects—outfielder Slater de Brun (their No. 6 prospect), catcher Caden Bodine (No. 10), right-hander Michael Forret (No. 11), and outfielder Austin Overn (No. 30)—along with the 33rd overall pick in the 2026 draft  to pry Baz away from a division rival. Toing the party line at the start of the seaseon, new Orioles manager Craig Albernaz declared that Shane Baz’s upside is “Cy Young award winner,” an enviable ceiling. The sides then finalized a five-year, $68 million extension just before Opening Day: the richest contract the Orioles have ever given to a pitcher.

So far in 2026, the results have been mixed (which is an affectionate way of saying they’ve been messy). Through his first four starts, Baz is 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, with 19 strikeouts in 22 innings. He’s failed to complete six innings in three of four outings. He has allowed at least three earned runs in three of four starts, and the one strong one—5.2 one-run innings against the Pirates—has been bookended by clunkers against better teams.

The peripheral numbers are more encouraging, although not without their own concerns. The hopeful signs are in is the significant gap between his actual results and his expected ones: his xwOBA of .318 is considerably better than his actual wOBA of .393, suggesting some bad luck on balls in play. His knuckle-curve is generating a 28% whiff rate in early usage, and his cutter is holding hitters to a .182 average . The velocity remains intact—his spring training fastball maxed out at 98.6 mph. The strikeout upside is clearly still there.

On the other hand, Baz shows an average exit velocity of 89.2 mph (high for him) and a barrel rate of 9.8%, the latter sitting in an uncomfortable range. Opponents expected average of .252 is the highest of his career. His fastball run value of -4 is the lowest it’s been.

The recurring concern, as it has been throughout his career, is command: his four-seamer has been hit hard, surrendering four doubles among its first seven hits allowed. His offspeed stuff (changeup, cutter, the knuckle-curve) are all showing slightly reduced spin this season.

How does this compare to Baz’s best moments? His 2021 debut remains the benchmark, when his strikeout-to-walk ratio was exceptional and his stuff looked genuinely electric in a very small sample. Over 48 career starts since his return from Tommy John surgery, he has an 8.9 SO9 rate and a 3.3 walk rate, with a FIP of 4.23—numbers that speak of a solid mid-rotation arm rather than an ace, though the underlying metrics hint at more.

But his 2025 xERA of 3.88 and SIERA of 3.95 (skill-intensive ERA; it’s a Fangraphs thing) point to a pitcher whose ERA significantly overstates his struggles, particularly—and I find this pretty important—given the havoc wrought by Steinbrenner Field, the Rays’ season-long Triple-A park last year while the Trop endured storm-related repairs.

Baz’s offspeed pitches seem to need some tuning up, but overall, the stuff does not appear degraded. What has fluctuated instead is his command and, in particular, his ability to suppress the home run ball against right-handed hitters. (I am told that, post-TJ, sometimes this happens.)

Four starts in, the early returns on Shane Baz as an Oriole are neither alarming nor reassuring—they’re more inconclusive. The gap between his actual results and his expected metrics suggests the ERA will come down. Patterns are already emerging that suggest he is leaning more heavily into his curve and cutter, a mix that appears to be working well. Camden Yards is a more forgiving environment than Steinbrenner Field, and Baz has shown in flashes (including five games of nine or more strikeouts in 2025) that the potential is real. The Orioles gave up a great deal to acquire him, well before he’d thrown a pitch in orange and black, and they gave up a lot to keep him here long-term. There are legitimate reasons to believe the best of Shane Baz is still ahead of him. We’re still watching, and what we see is enough to stay interested.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​