Category: Baseball

The Atlanta Braves pulled off a win against the National League Central-leading Chicago Cubs in yesterday’s matchup and are now looking at rookie JR Ritchie to continue their winning streak to capture an early series win.

Ritchie, who’s boasting a 3.63 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, didn’t appear in his usual rotation during the Los Angeles Dodgers series. His last start was against the Seattle Mariners, where he walked six batters during his stint. He remarked in an interview that he was going to study film to see what specific things were wrong with his approach to correct for his next outing.

Well, now the time has come for him to put his studying to the test. Already an impressive young flame-thrower, getting his fourth start on the mound with a veteran-heavy team behind him to hold down the offense, should lead to an entertaining showdown against the split-finger master and the Cubs.

Speaking of which, Shota Imanaga, holding a 2.28 ERA with a 4-2 record so far this year, is out to lead the team to their comeback of the night. Coming off a dominant win against the Reds on May 7 ( 6 IP/ 6 H/ 1 ER/ 3 BB/ 10 K), Imanaga will want to capitalize on the Braves’ lack of offensive power (despite their game one win) from the night before, and get ahead of them early to set the tone for the Cubs.

Two of the top MLB teams are looking to come out with their own versions of success. The Braves are finding ways to win, even through downsides, clinching the MLB-best once again. The Cubs…they want to put an end to their streak.

It’s all going down tonight at Truist at 7:15 p.m. EDT.

Game Info

Game Time: Wednesday, May 13th, 7:15 pm EDT

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA.

Watch: BravesVision

Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

Last week, in the space of fewer than 24 hours, Jake McCarthy hit a grand slam and drove in five runs as the Rockies beat the Mets 6-2, and Alek Thomas was designated for assignment. In the short-sightedness of many fans (no judgment; I’m in this category sometimes as well) this meant that we had traded away the wrong outfielder.

It’s impossible to know that, because we do not know what the return for Thomas would have been, but it’s also important to note that while results are the only thing that makes a difference in wins and losses, Thomas was fantastically unlucky at the plate this year. All of his expected stats exceeded the results, some by a substantial margin. His xwOBAcon (this takes into account quality of contact and also sounds delicious) exceeded his wOBA by an astounding 110 points. His barrels, launch angles, and hard hit rates were improved on last season. McCarthy, meanwhile, has one of the lowest hard hit rates in the game, although he has also improved his launch angles. But his xwOBAcon is .385 while Thomas’s is .359, a difference not entirely attributable to playing in Coors Field, but which is certainly helped by that. Thomas is also the superior defender. The Diamondbacks designated Thomas for assignment just as much because of roster crunch as because of performance; given his improved launch angles, they surely hope he clears waivers and can go to Reno. If he does not and he suddenly starts hitting above replacement level for another team, it’s not that they suddenly fixed him so much as it is the fixes the Diamondbacks already gave him having better luck.

But anyway, this isn’t about which light hitting outfielder the Diamondbacks should have traded. It is about the overlooked player the Diamondbacks got for McCarthy.

Josh Grosz was an 11^th round selection of the Yankees in 2023, five picks after the Mariners drafted Brandyn Garcia. With the Diamondbacks’ own pick of Casey Anderson, he is the third member of the 11^th round in 2023 in the organization. (That 2023 draft is looking pretty solid this year. Anderson seems to be finding his feet as a reliever in AA, Philip Abner has already reached the major leagues, and Tommy Troy and LuJames Groover are both knocking on the door. Caden Grice is finally healthy, and Jack Hurley looked to be turning things around at AAA.) These are just interesting facts that have no bearing on the discussion, which is the return for McCarthy.

Grosz starred at East Carolina, a “mid-major” school but one with a top-level (but extremely snake bitten) baseball program. They hold the record for most NCAA tournament appearances without ever making to Omaha, and only two teams are even halfway to their 35: South Alabama (alma mater of Turner Ward, Matt Peacock, and some guy named Luis Gonzalez) with 28, and Stetson. He entered the starting rotation in 2022 and started the game that looked to break the schneid. He gave up two runs (one earned) and the Pirates built a 7-2 lead in the seventh inning. But Texas came back to win and dominated the following day. He was a regular in a rotation that included Trey Yesavage in 2023, with mixed results. (East Carolina has produced some excellent pitching in recent years. In addition to Yesavage, Carson Whisenhunt and Gavin Williams both starred in Greenville post-COVID.)

He signed with the Yankees and got good results, performing well enough to get a spot start in AA. He was even better in 2025, but struggled after being traded to the Rockies in the Ryan McMahon deal. He was a bit unlucky; his xFIP- was 100, indicating that he would have been expected to get average results rather than the poor results he got.

The raw numbers of a 4.12 ERA and a 1.322 WHIP at Amarillo make it look like his luck has turned. That’s not accurate. Jose Cabrera leads the Soddies in WHIP at 0.862. His xFIP- is 75. Jonatan Bernal leads the Soddies in ERA at 1.32. His xFIP- is 63. Grosz’s xFIP- of 55 is closer to Kade Anderson’s than Cabrera’s. Kade Anderson was in line to be the top pick in the draft last year and has an ERA of 0.60 and a WHIP of 0.667 as a starting pitcher in the Texas League. His xFIP- is 46. (Lower numbers are better for minus stats, while higher numbers are better for plus stats, but the meaning is basically the same, with 100 average.) Grosz is allowing a .395 BABIP, which is substantially above his career numbers and is certain to come down. (All statistics are through Sunday, May 10.)

Since it’s not luck, how has he improved so much? It basically comes down to two stats which xFIP absolutely loves. He’s striking out more batters and getting more ground balls. And not by a small margin. He’s faced enough batters for his strikeout rate to mean something, and he’s striking out 40% of the batters he faces. In addition to the strikeout rate, he’s getting more than twice as many ground balls as fly balls.

It is imperative to note what I am not saying here. I am not saying that Josh Grosz is a future ace, or even a guaranteed future rotation piece. Strikeout rate is the only statistic that is really meaningful at this point, and players with strikeout rates like his tend to already be or eventually become relievers. I am not even saying that Josh Grosz would have success in the big leagues. But I do think he’s cracked the code to be a successful pitcher at Amarillo and Reno, if he can keep it up. Strike out batters, make the others hit the ball on the ground, and you can get good results, even at Hodgetown.

Grosz isn’t getting quite as many whiffs as one might like, but he’s still quite good in that department. He’s getting swinging strikes on 14.2% of pitches. For context, Seth Hernandez has the highest rate in the minors at 25%, Rio Britton has the highest rate in the organization at 18.1% (which is in the top-20 across the minors), Mason Miller has the highest in the majors at 26.5% (minimum 10 innings pitched) and Juan Morillo has the best in the organization at 16.1%. One would expect that to drop moving up levels, but it doesn’t always; Morillo is getting more whiffs in the big leagues than he did at AA.

Grosz’s ceiling is mid-rotation starter, and will most likely wind up as a reliever. We’ll likely never know if he would have been the return for a theoretical Thomas trade, but there’s a very good chance that the Diamondbacks wind up on the better side of the McCarthy trade in the end.

Here are the other pitchers who have faced 70 batters and struck out more than 30%. Sanchez and Aracena are the only other ones starting some of the time, and Aracena has also appeared in relief. 

It’s interesting that none of these were signed as highly regarded prospects. The Diamondbacks signed Mercado last year after he went undrafted out of Oregon in 2024; he initially didn’t find any takers among the thirty big league organizations and signed with Idaho Falls in the Pioneer League. Rio Britton also attended Oregon once upon a time, but transferred to NC State and went undrafted. The Diamondbacks pounced quickly in his case and signed him in 2023. Aracena may be a prospect now, but he signed for just $70,000, while Sanchez and Santana do not have listed signing bonuses, meaning that they were almost certainly below $50,000. While there have been plenty of complaints (including from me) about the organizational failures in pitching development, there are a few success stories as well, but mostly on the bullpen side.

Jose Cabrera may be having the best season of any of the pitching prospects thus far, but he just missed the 30% cut. Brian Curley and Chung-Hsiang Huang are two starting prospects who have done well to keep walks down while striking people out in the 25-30% range. And pitchers in the complex haven’t faced enough batters yet to form any judgment. Dean Livingston had a solid debut, and Modesto Vargas can be added to the list of potential future bullpen arms who can reach triple digits, but it’ll be at least a few weeks before much more can be said.

Why Zach Neto, not Mike Trout, is the Angels player Red Sox should pursue originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

The Boston Red Sox should consider acquiring a right-handed slugger from the Los Angeles Angels, but it isn’t Mike Trout.

Michael Felger of 98.5 The Sports Hub’s Felger & Mazz sparked the Trout-to-Boston rumors on Tuesday, citing a “loose” source that told him “don’t be surprised” if the Red Sox end up with the three-time MVP.

“They think he’s a better leader than (Alex) Bregman and will hit a bunch of home runs at Fenway Park,” Felger relayed from his supposed source. “And L.A. likes (Jarren) Duran and (Brayan) Bello.”

The chances of such a deal are slim to none. Trout’s contract, which pays him $37.1 million per year through 2030, includes a full no-trade clause. While he could choose to waive it, the 34-year-old has been incredibly loyal to the Angels. It’s unlikely he suddenly opts to leave L.A., especially for a last-place Boston club at this stage of his 16-year MLB career.

If Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow calls Angels general manager Perry Minasian about a potential trade, shortstop Zach Neto makes more sense.

Almost a decade younger than Trout at 25 years old, Neto is coming off back-to-back seasons with a 5.1 bWAR. The 2022 first-round draft pick notched 23 homers with a .761 OPS in 2024 and 26 homers with a .791 OPS in 2025.

Boston’s lackluster lineup desperately needs that kind of pop, particularly from the right side. Neto has also been a solid defender for most of his four MLB seasons, though he has had some uncharacteristic mental miscues this year.

It’s been an odd season all around for Neto, who entered the campaign as one of MLB Network’s top 10 shortstops and widely considered one of the league’s most underrated talents. Through 43 games, he’s slashing .216/.322/.386 with six homers, 18 RBI, and 62 strikeouts. He leads all American League shortstops with six errors.

None of that should dissuade Boston from pursuing Neto, who’s under team control through 2029. He may benefit from a change of scenery, because as bad as the Red Sox have been so far this season (17-24), the Angels have been even worse (16-28). They haven’t had a winning season since 2015.

Neto offers far more upside than current Red Sox shortstop Trevor Story, whose early-season struggles have once again sparked DFA debates. The 33-year-old has offered zero value at the plate so far in 2026, and his defense has rapidly declined over the last three years.

According to Sean McAdam of MassLive.com, the Red Sox inquired about Neto during the offseason, but the Angels set a “very high bar” when it came to the return. Perhaps his recent struggles, and what appears to be another lost season for L.A., will bring down the cost. If it’s true that the Angels are eyeing Duran and Bello, that’s a good place to start.

Neto wouldn’t solve all of Boston’s problems this season, but he’s an exciting young talent who would give Sox fans something to be excited about long-term. Breslow should be operating like his job is on the line, and a big splash for Neto is the kind of move that could buy him more time.

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The misery continues for the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park, and the locals could be getting restless again tonight against the Philadelphia Phillies.

With last night’s win, Philadelphia improved to 8-3 in May, and my Phillies vs Red Sox predictions jump on the visitors here, even with Boston’s likely edge in the pitching matchup. 

Take a closer look at this clash with my free MLB picks for Wednesday, May 13.

Who will win Phillies vs Red Sox today: Phillies (+109)

After two early runs, it turned out to be a nail-biter for the Philadelphia Phillies in yesterday’s series opener, but they’ve now won seven of their last nine games.

Rookie Andrew Painter takes the ball tonight and, though he drags in an ugly 6.89 ERA, I see the Philly bats giving him enough run support to outlast the Boston Red Sox.

Kyle Schwarberhas now homered in five straight contests, and both Trea Turner and Alec Bohm have had success against Boston starter Sonny Gray.

With an out-of-sorts lineup, the Red Sox are 7-13 at Fenway this season, and I’m fading them tonight.

COVERS INTEL: The Red Sox are 6-19 this year when they allow a home run, and the Phillies have mashed 50 dingers, ninth-most in the majors.

Phillies vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Under 9 (-115)

It’s hard to take the Over here after watching these lineups flail away in clutch moments last night, so I’m grabbing the Under, which has been a winning ticket in three of the last four meetings between these teams.

Though I’m banking on the Phillies to get more traction at the plate tonight, the Red Sox have scored just four runs across their past three outings, and only three ballclubs have served up fewer runs this year than Boston.

For all of Painter’s bumpy spells, five of his seven starts have finished with a total below 9, and Gray looked sharp last week after shaking off a hamstring issue.

Phillies vs Red Sox odds

• Moneyline: Phillies +109 | Red Sox -131
• Run line: Phillies +1.5 (-186) | Red Sox -1.5 (+153)
• Over/Under: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)

Phillies vs Red Sox trend

The Under is 8-3-1 in Boston's last 12 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Red Sox.

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Alex Verdugo’s hopes of returning to MLB just took a massive hit at a time when it’s uncertain if he still is worthy of a major-league roster spot.

Verdugo, on a minor-league deal with the Padres, is set to undergo season-ending surgery after suffering a shoulder injury and has been released by the team, according to The San Diego Union-Tribune.

The 29-year-old will have not played a major-league game in roughly 20 months when the 2027 season — if there’s no lockout — begins.

Verdugo signed with the Padres in March after a disappointing 2025 season with the Braves, in which he appeared in 56 games and posted a career .585 OPS.

No team signed him after the Braves released him in July with a slashline of .239/.296/.289 and a -0.3 bWAR, failing to homer in 213 plate appearances.

The Padres took a shot on him in spring training to add depth but he did not break camp with the team, and did not appear in any minor-league games with the team.

It’s unclear if the lack of minors game is tied to the potential shoulder issues.

It’s fair to wonder about his MLB future now since teams have essentially not deemed him worthy of a roster spot for the majority of the 2025 and ’26 seasons.

Verdugo’s career has trended in the wrong direction since the Red Sox traded the former second-round pick to the Yankees before the 2024 season.

He posted a .761 OPS in four seasons with the Red Sox, but tallied a .647 mark with the Yankees.

Verdugo started hot with the Bronx Bombers before enduring a brutal second half while hitting .233, his lowest mark for any full season.

Although the Yankees played him 149 times that season and throughout the playoffs, he signed just a one-year, $1.5 million deal with the Braves in March 2025.

Verdugo began his career with the Dodgers before being traded to Boston in the Mookie Betts swap, and is a career .270/.326/.406 hitter in 856 games.

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The Chicago Cubs hope to end a three-game skid when they face the Atlanta Braves tonight.

The opening game of the series between the top two teams in the National League was dominated by the Braves, but my Cubs vs. Braves predictions back Chicago to even the series tonight.

Find out why in my MLB picks for May 13.

Who will win Cubs vs Braves today: Cubs (-127)

JR Ritchie has had a solid start to his MLB career with the Atlanta Braves, but his metrics suggest some serious issues ahead. 

His FIP is three runs higher than his ERA, largely due to a BB/9 rate of 6.23 that is among the worst of any starter.

That sets him up for failure against the Chicago Cubs, whose 13.2% walk rate over the last two weeks is the best in baseball. They’re also third in xwOBA in that timeframe, thanks to the third-lowest strikeout rate.

Chicago's offense will provide run support to Shota Imanaga as he claims another victory. 

COVERS INTEL:Ritchie has a 21.1% HR/FB rate this season, which could be problematic given the weather in Atlanta tonight is the second-most favorable for hitters of any game on today’s schedule.

Cubs vs Braves Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-108)

The Cubs have only two runs in the last three games, and those both came last night despite having just one hit.

They’ll get back on track against Ritchie, who ranks in the 20th percentile or worse in chase rate, walk rate, strikeout rate, and xERA.

Imanaga will limit Atlanta’s offense, but that will change once he exits. Chicago’s bullpen ranks second-worst in HR/FB rate, third-worst in HR rate, and dead last in xERA over the past week. 

That will allow the Braves, whose .336 BABIP over the past week leads the majors, to get some late runs.  

Cubs vs Braves odds

• Moneyline: Cubs -127 | Braves +122
• Run line: Cubs -1.5 (+127) | Braves +1.5 (-133)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-108) | Under 8.5 (+104)

Cubs vs Braves trend

The Chicago Cubs have hit the moneyline in 19 of their last 25 games (+13.20 Units / 40% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Braves.

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The glass of baseball is always half full and half empty at the same time and the 2026 A’s are no exception. Half full: the A’s still own sole possession of 1st place at the 1/4 mark. Half empty: their 21-20 record puts them currently on pace for only 84 wins.

The Good

Let’s start today with a big positive from the ‘half full department’. I think we should take a moment to realize just how good Shea Langeliers has been in 2026. He hasn’t just been the A’s best hitter nor is he simply the best catcher in the AL 1/4 of the way through the season. Langeliers can legitimately lay claim to being one of the best 2 or 3 hitters in the American League so far in 2026.

Sound like hyperbole? Langeliers has played in all but 4 games, missing most of those due to paternity leave, and he is batting, for the season, .340/.396/.641 with 12 HR. That’s a 48 HR pace and the league lead in batting (.020 points ahead of Josh Jung).

Shea’s 183 wRC+ is rivaled by few AL hitters. Even the legendary Aaron Judge is barely ahead of him at 185 wRC+. The only clearly superior hitter, by wRC+, would be Ben Rice (198). And once you factor in position and defensive value, Shea rises in overall WAR: Rice currently sits at 1.9 fWAR, Langeliers at 2.4 fWAR.

That’s right, Langeliers is on pace for a 9.6 fWAR season. Who knows how the voting will go, but he really should be a no-brainer to start the All-Star game as the American League’s catcher.

The Fugly

One wants to avoid the temptation to panic over small samples, but with Lawrence Butler the sample is growing ever larger: since the 2025 All-Star break Butler has just been bad. Last July-September you can wonder how much his knee might have been a factor, but that’s not really an excuse for how 2026 has begun.

The sample is now 96 games and here is how the numbers shake down:

2nd half of 2025, 58 games: .203/.268/.351, 70 wRC+
1st half of 2026, 38 games: .175/.277/.275, 56 wRC+

In aggregate you have a sub .200 hitter with an OBP in the low .270s and slugging in the low-mid .300s with a wRC+ in the mid-60s.

Against LHPs in his career now, Butler is batting just .221/.262/.378, 77 wRC+, which is why he is already becoming a platoon player in year 2 of his contract extension.

Defensively, Butler is fine in RF, even a tick above average, but he is terrible in CF despite the A’s insistence on pulling a Bleday and trotting him out there anyway. He’s already at -3 OAA in just 121.2 innings so he’s not providing valuable versatility to offset his hitting woes.

The A’s should now be legitimately concerned. There’s room for hope in that Butler has had his share of bad batted ball luck with hard hit outs. His expected BA stands at .232, which is a lot better than his actual .175 — but it’s not good and would only raise his OBP to a respectable .325.

Yes it would be nice if Butler were actually batting .232/.325/.400 but you don’t always exactly match your “expected” metrics and can’t just lean on that to excuse performance. Butler has struggled mightily at the plate for nearly 2/3 of a season now and is only really playable in RF — where Carlos Cortes can also play.

More Fugly: Pitching Splits

Meanwhile, on the mound….the A’s flat out need to figure out how to pitch in Sacramento. The team now has a 6.02 ERA at home for the season in 17 games in contrast to its 3.28 ERA in 24 away games. That’s absurd and it’s the same mound, same field, same conditions for the A’s and their opponents.

Sure the A’s could reasonably have a team ERA even a full point higher at home than on the road and chalk it up to “park effects”. But an ERA 2.74 runs/game higher at home than on the road? Serving up 2 runs every 3 innings? Come on, folks, you need to get a handle on this if the team is to contend for anything.

Trying to reverse the trend tonight will be one of the A’s biggest “split offenders,” JT Ginn. In a small sample so far in 2026, Ginn has a 7.62 ERA at home, 1.48 on the road. Last year, though, was similar: 6.85 at home, 3.14 on the road. It means Ginn will take a career ERA in Sacramento of 7.01 into tonight’s start.

Presumably, tonight we will see the debut of Henry Bolte, likely in CF and batting 9th. Here’s hoping The Bolte Era coincides with the team pitching better at home, Lawrence Butler hitting better everywhere, and Shea Langeliers not changing a thing.

The Nationals have been a surprisingly fun team to watch so far in 2026. As we have documented, the offense has been absolutely electric and the pitching staff has stabilized after a rough start to the season. However, the defense has been very rough, and it is showing no signs of improvement.

Even in last night’s comprehensive win, the Nats had two errors and a passed ball. This team just does not play error free baseball very often. In fact, the Nats are averaging nearly an error per game, with 41 errors in 42 games. Right now, they are on pace to have the most errors by any team since the beginning of the 21st century.

We knew heading into the season that this team was not going to be great defensively. They were not great last year, and have a number of players in the lineup not known for their defense. The Nats two best players, James Wood and CJ Abrams, are not great defensively, and that sets the tone in a way.

That is not necessarily the worst thing in the world. Defense is not like hitting and pitching. You do not need to be an elite defensive team to win a World Series. The Dodgers have been middle of the pack defensively the past two seasons, and so were the Nats in 2019. Going all in on defense is not the solution, but the Nats need to get to an acceptable level.

Averaging nearly an error a game is not an acceptable level of defensive play. Blake Butera knows this very well. He has spoken multiple times about the need to clean up the defense. At one point a week or two ago, he mentioned that he was going to change up the routine. It does not seem like that worked. Before yesterday’s game, he talked about how the Nats were not utilizing their athleticism in the field. I think there has been some pressing going on lately.

As Butera mentioned, this is an athletic team. You can see that on the bases. While there have been some base running mistakes, they have been a much better team on the basepaths this season. The Nats are first in Baseball Savant’s baserunning metric and second in BsR. This team is getting much better in a lot of areas, but fielding is not one of them.

Some of this is pretty predictable. The new regime talked a big game about making CJ Abrams a better defensive shortstop, but that has not happened. Abrams has 7 errors on the season and has -7 outs above average, as well as -4 DRS. He is just not equipped to be a shortstop long term. In fact, I think some of these defensive issues would have been mitigated by moving Abrams to second base before the season and playing Nasim Nunez at shortstop. However, I understand the new regime’s desire to give Abrams another shot at short.

I do not want to single out Abrams though, because he has been far from the only problem. Outside of Nasim Nunez, the whole infield has been a mess. Luis Garcia Jr. and Curtis Mead have both been producing with the bat, but neither are natural first baseman and it shows. 

The most disappointing player defensively has been Brady House, and it has not been close. House is tied with Abrams for the team lead in errors, and has a much worse fielding percentage at .908 compared to .956 for Abrams. As you would expect from someone as mistake prone as that, the defensive metrics are not great. His OAA is only -2, but his DRS is the same as Abrams at -4. 

Coming into the season, House’s defense was seen as a big strength for him. The young third baseman posted 2 outs above average last year, and made some great plays. He showed off his rocket arm and good range from his background as a shortstop. The big question with House was the development of his bat.

To his credit, House clearly put in a lot of work to improve offensively. House’s OPS is up over 100 points. He is walking more and hitting for much more power. House has been close to a league average hitter this year, with a 95 wRC+. However, he has gone from an asset to a liability on defense. It has been a disappointing development, and hopefully he can bounce back.

A lot of the problems seem to come when House is coming in on balls. That was how he made his error last night, and it was not the first one like that. There are also times where House just seems to be caught in between and is indecisive. The natural talent is there for him to be a good defender, and he has shown he can play good defense. Unlike Abrams, House has the range and arm for his position, he just needs to clean up the miscues.

The Nats defense has been the most mistake prone in baseball, but it has not been the worst. That is a key distinction, and one that can be tough to realize if you watch them play every night. For the season, the Nats are 25th in fielding run value at -7. In Fangraphs defensive metric, they rank 25th and they are 27th in defensive runs saved. 

So yes, the defense is bad, but it is not as bad as the error numbers suggest. That comes down to a few factors. The Nats do have a couple real defensive wizards in the lineup. Nasim Nunez and Jacob Young are both very good defensive players, which helps them out. The Nats have gotten much better defense from their catchers. They have been a top 5 framing team this season. 

The defense absolutely is a real issue, and they need to cut down on the errors. Making nearly an error a game is simply unacceptable at the big league level. They have 12 more errors than the next closest team. However, the defense is not as bad as the errors make them look. On offense, the new staff has really gotten through to the players, but it has been tougher to make them click on the defensive side of the ball.

It’s hard to find too much to gripe about with the 2026 Atlanta Braves through 42 games.

At the plate, they lead the majors in batting average (.272), slugging percentage (.452), wOBA (.347), wRC+ (121), and have scored the most runs of any team (233).

On the mound and with the gloves, they’re tops in runs allowed (143) and defensive efficiency (.249 BABIP-against), fifth in defensive value, while also tied for second in quality starts (20). Though the pitching has had some ups and downs, the defense has buoyed it, and they’re in the top half of MLB in FIP and xFIP.

There’s only been one real glaring issue through the first quarter of the season. There’s been an undeniable spike in baserunners being picked off under new first base coach Antoan Richardson.

With two more pickoffs in Tuesday night’s 5-2 win over the Chicago Cubs, the Braves have been picked off 10 times this season. That’s two more than any other major league team.

It’s also already as many pickoffs as the Braves had on the bases in all 162 games last season and more than they had in three of their four entire seasons between 2021-24.

It would seem that Braves manager Walt Weiss has seen enough of the new way the Braves are trying to be aggressive on the basepaths.

“To be honest, it’s gotten to a point where we’re going to have to make an adjustment there. I don’t think it’s costing us games, but it just shouldn’t happen at this rate,” Weiss said postgame Tuesday. “I know we’re trying to do some things different, and the guys are working their butts off trying to be really good at it. Antoan has been awesome. He’s got passion, he’s accountable. That’s just something we’ve got to clean up.”

While Weiss can say none of the pickoffs have cost them games — and it’s clearly not stopping the Braves’ winning ways — these issues have come up in some critical spots.

Most notably, pinch-runner Jorge Mateo was picked off when he represented the tying run in the eighth inning of the rubber match at Seattle, which remains the only series the Braves have lost this season.

The new baserunning belief has paid dividends in some ways. The Braves are tied for fourth in the majors in bases taken (46) and have only run into six outs on the bases (fourth fewest), a stat that doesn’t count pickoffs. They’re 11th in Statcast’s baserunning measure (which does not include steals, steal attempts, or pickoffs), after finishing handily in the bottom ten each of the last two seasons (and sixth in 2023).

But it’s not even like the team is stealing bases at a crazy rate. Atlanta’s 21 stolen bases rank 21st in the majors and the Braves’ 67.74% stolen-base percentage is the worst in the majors. In pure stolen base value, the Braves are also dead last; when you add stolen base and baserunning value together, they’re 22nd.

So if the upside of stolen bases isn’t going to be there with this team — which it likely doesn’t need to be given its slugging — the risk of getting picked off shouldn’t be nearly that serious… or common.

Alternatively, if they’re going to have this aggressive approach, they need to at least be a bit more selective about who uses it. Look at Tuesday’s two pickoffs as proof. Michael Harris II, given his speed, may be justified in risking an aggressive baserunning approach, even if it sometimes ends up with him picked off. Matt Olson — he of the ten career stolen bases in 11 seasons — simply shouldn’t be risking outs by doing whatever he was doing on Tuesday night.

On the one hand, it’s a good sign that pickoffs are one of the few things Braves fans have to lament this season. On the other hand, there’s just no reason for it to be this bad, this often. Hopefully they follow their skipper’s direction and clean it up soon.

The attrition within the Cincinnati Reds starting rotation has, apparently, finally become too much to bear.

Hunter Greene is out until the All Star break, while Brandon Williamson only recently got sent to the 60-day IL for his shoulder ailment. Rhett Lowder, meanwhile, heard ‘clicking’ in his shoulder during his last start, and while an MRI didn’t reveal any structural damage, he’s being sent to the 15-day IL to let that simmer down. Meanwhile, Chase Petty is dealing with blister issues for the second time already this season, joining the blistered duo of Brady Singer and Nick Lodolo as that has plagued the rotation all spring.

With that much inside drama, it became pretty clear the Reds would need to look outside their own ranks. According to Charlie Goldsmith on Wednesday afternoon, that will happen in the form of veteran righty Chris Paddack, who the Reds will reportedly sign.

Paddack was recently released by the Miami Marlins just 7 appearances into the $4 million contract he signed with them this offseason. That was largely due to him yielding 26 ER in just 30.2 IP, I’d wager, though at least his 4.98 FIP is better than the 7.63 ERA he sported in that time.

For his career, he’s a 4.79 ERA guy across 612.1 IP, and a fastball that once averaged right at 95 mph at its peak now sits at just 93 mph at age 30.

It remains to be seen exactly what kind of deal this will be, though with the current rotation opening rolling around in just days it’s hard to see this being anything other than a big league deal. That will require some 40-man roster shuffling, if so, and it also remains to be seen just exactly how much the Reds will truly expect from a guy who has only managed to complete 5 IP once so far this season.

If anything, I wonder if this is an indication that one of the current pitcher issues may well be more dire than we initially feared.

There is a major change in out TV broadcasts. For the first time in many many years, Buck Martinez isn’t sitting in one of the chairs in the booth.

Dan Shulman is still there. As is Hazel Mae and Arden Zwelling are still the sideline reporters. And Jamie Campbell and a rotating cast do the Jays Central studio stuff.

The big change is that Joe Siddall and Caleb Joseph have moved up from fill in game analysts to being the man. Or men, I guess.

So I thought I’d ask what you think of the TV broadcasts.

I will admit, I have developed the ability to tune out the talk, most of the time. But they seem to have given up on telling us how bad the one knee thing is for catchers (just wait until there is a passed ball at the wrong time.

I think Dan is as good as they come for play-by-play. I don’t think he and Joe or Caleb have developed the rapport that he and Buck had, but I’d imagine that will just take time.

Give us your opinion.

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After a perfect 3-for-3 on my MLB player props on Tuesday, I have found more value in today's packed 15-game slate.

I'll include Max Fried, Randy Arozarena, and Jacob Misiorowski. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, May 13. 

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Max Fried	Over 5.5 strikeouts	-145
Randy Arozarena	Over 1.5 total bases	+150
Jacob Misiorowski	Under 1.5 earned runs	-133

Max Fried Over 5.5 strikeouts (-145)

Max Fried is having a nice campaign for the New York Yankees, compiling a 4-2 record and 2.91 ERA while striking out 48 hitters in 58.2 innings of work. While his K rate isn't as high as usual, the lefty is still getting his fair share of swings and misses.

Fried will face the Baltimore Orioles tonight, and he also struck out six O's hitters earlier this month in 5.1 innings. 

Fried has cashed the Over in punchouts in two of his last four appearances, and he finished with five Ks in the other two starts -- just below tonight's total.

The Orioles struggle at times to put the baseball in play, ranking 26th in the big leagues in strikeouts. Fried also has 35 Ks in 41.1 road innings as the Bronx Bombers visit Baltimore here. 

• Time: 6: p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MASN, Amazon Prime

Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 total bases (+150)

Randy Arozarena is tearing the cover off the baseball right now. The Seattle Mariners outfielder is hitting .522 over the last seven days, and he's already notched six hits in this series against the Houston Astros ahead of the series finale tonight.

Arozarena has cashed the Over in total bases in three of his last five contests, and the Cuban was a perfect 4-for-4 on Tuesday.

Tonight's matchup plays in his favor, too. Arozarena will face Lance McCullers Jr, and he's 7-for-17 lifetime against him with a home run. McCullers Jr owns a horrible 7.41 ERA, and he's given up nine earned runs across his last two starts.

Arozarena is hitting everything, and McCullers Jr has had no luck against the slugger. He'll have another banner performance. 

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SCHN, Mariners.TV

Jacob Misiorowski Under 1.5 earned runs (-133)

The Milwaukee Brewers' rotation has been led by youngster Jacob Misiorowski, who sports a 2.45 ERA through eight starts, holding opponents to a .162 average.

The right-hander is coming off a dominant outing against the New York Yankees, tossing six scoreless frames last Friday while allowing just two hits to a solid lineup. 

In fact, he's put together back-to-back scoreless appearances, and Misiorowski has cashed the Under in three of his previous four starts. The Brew Crew face the San Diego Padres at home tonight, where the hard-throwing right-hander owns a 2.54 ERA.

The Padres have been very underwhelming offensively, ranking 15th in runs and towards the bottom of the Majors in numerous other offensive categories. Misiorowski will deal. 

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Brewers.TV, Padres.TV

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The New York Mets will look to make it two in a row at home as they host the Detroit Tigers at Citi Field on Wednesday night.

New York broke out offensively on Tuesday, and I’m picking it to win again in my Tigers vs. Mets predictions below.

Read on for my free MLB picks for Wednesday, May 13.

Who will win Tigers vs Mets today: Mets moneyline (-110)

Framber Valdez exits a disastrous start that saw him allow 10 runs in three innings. He’s running into a New York Mets team that broke out offensively with the help of prospect A.J. Ewing, who had a triple and three walks in his MLB debut last night.

Mets SP Christian Scott has allowed just three earned runs on six hits over 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts. He’s struck out 14 batters in that span, which should cause fits for a Detroit Tigers lineup averaging 2.71 runs over its last seven games.

COVERS INTEL: Christian Scott is holding opponents to a .172 expected batting average and a 4.2% barrel rate so far this season.

Tigers vs Mets Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+105)

New York showed energy and life that was desperately missing from its offense last night, whether that was from Ewing’s debut or not. The Mets singlehandedly carried the Over, and I think this lineup can generate offense off Valdez as well given his recent struggles. 

The Tigers will have their chances to score, too. Scott has yet to go more than five innings in a game this year, and the Mets bullpen is thin, with long relief options like Sean Manaea (6.56 ERA) and closer Devin Williams (5.68 ERA) struggling. 

Tigers vs Mets odds

• Moneyline: Tigers -110 | Mets -110
• Run line: Tigers +1.5 | Mets -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Tigers vs Mets trend

Detroit is 1-6 straight up in its last seven games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Mets.

How to watch Tigers vs Mets and game info

Tigers vs Mets latest injuries

Tigers vs Mets weather

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Were you excited about the ABS challenge system at the start of the season? Did you think Craig Breslow’s “pitching and defense team” would be taking advantage of a new tool to help them reach the playoffs again? Well, so far challenges aren’t really a Red Sox thing. Whether this was an Alex Cora decision to more or less ignore the new powers of gamesmanship, or whether the Sox simply don’t have a collection of players who are comfortable tapping their helmets is unknown, but the results speak for themselves.

Boston has called for just 28 batter challenges through May 12th, the second lowers total in baseball. The Miami Marlins are at 28 and the San Diego Padres sit at just 26. Meanwhile the Minnesota Twins (56), Los Angeles Angels (49), Baltimore Orioles (48), and Cleveland Guardians (48) lead the pack with the most challenges by their hitters. Granted, these are not the most successful teams at challenges. That would be the Athletics, Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals, and Houston Astros. Each has won between 56% and 60% of their hitter challenges. And of the high-challenge teams, only the Guardians are above .500 on the year. Boston hitters have won 46% of their challenges, same as the Yankees who have challenged 46 times. The two teams are tied for the 14th highest winning rate by their hitters. Although 19 teams have won at least 45% of their challenges. And 21 teams have won 44%.

The disparity begins to show when you look at the individual hitters.

Ceddanne Rafaela is the leader of the Boston offense in helmet tapping. For better or worse he’s been one of the bright spots in the offense. And he’s challenged 7 times. Winning just 2. He shares that rate of success with Steven Kwan, Willy Adames, and Jonathan Aranda. Only Gunnar Henderson, with just 1 win, is worse among those with at least 7 challenge attempts.

If you look at Rafaela’s feel of the strike zone, it’s all over the map. The two blue circles were overturned. The 5 black circles were confirmed. Even here there’s some tough luck on the two in the corner on the lower left and the biter on the right that is essentially on the line of the strike zone. But that circle well inside the box? You might remember it from Sunday. It was called and obviously confirmed as a strike. It probably looked low.

It’s tough. The catcher lifts the ball really quick and it looks like his glove moved a long way as he does it.

Masataka Yoshida (1) and Trevor Story (2) have won all their challenges.

Roman Anthony is 2-for-3.

Willson Contreras (6) and Caleb Durbin (4) have won 50% of theirs.

Wilyer Abreu in the opposite of Roman at 1-for-3.

Let’s look at Masa’s win for comparison. He’s seen a lot of pitches this year and only one made him tap the helmet.

What’s the saying, juuuuust a bit outside?

Obviously some of this is going to be ingrained in a player. Some is going to be teachable. For the Red Sox, a team needing an offensive boost, maybe it’s time to figure out a more unified strategy. We know Roman and Masa know the zone. We know Willson is a veteran and a former catcher. He may know some tricks to gain a tiny edge here and there. But if the Sox could get back another pitch or two per week, it might be nice. I’m not advocating wasting challenges but if the game is ending and you have both remaining in the 9th inning maybe a little live practice…

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The reeling Los Angeles Dodgers take a four-game losing streak into Wednesday night’s home game against the San Francisco Giants.

Superstar Shohei Ohtani takes the mound, and there’s no better pitcher to turn the tide.

My Giants vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, May 13, see Shohei leading his team back in the win column with a low-scoring victory.

Who will win Giants vs Dodgers tonight: Dodgers moneyline (-238)

Losing streak or not, the Los Angeles Dodgers are still the superior team and will have a starting pitching advantage with Shohei Ohtani (0.97 ERA) on the bump.

He’s on a shortlist for the NL Cy Young, ranking in the 90th percentile or better in xERA, xBA, whiff rate, and barrel rate.

While Robbie Ray’s 2.76 ERA looks nice, it’s undercut by his predictive metrics (4.15 xERA, 4.52 FIP).

His mortality shows on the road (4.15 ERA), and the bullpen behind him has a league-worst 5.63 SIERA over the last 15 days.

COVERS INTEL:Shohei Ohtani’s 114 Stuff+ ranks seventh among starting pitchers. He uses these lethal offerings to generate strikeouts (29%) and groundballs (53.8%) — the two most favorable outcomes for a pitcher.

Giants vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 8 (-110)

Low-scoring games tend to follow when these two hurlers take the mound. San Francisco is 2-6 O/U in Ray’s eight starts, while L.A. is 1-5 O/U in Ohtani’s last six.

The Boys in Blue have been slumping at the dish, plating three or fewer runs in 10 of their last 13 games. With Ohtani out of the lineup, they’re missing their best hitter.

The San Francisco Giants have bad numbers against right-handed pitchers (89 wRC+ and .296 wOBA) and will face the most effective one to date in 2026.

Giants vs Dodgers odds

• Moneyline: San Francisco +206 | Los Angeles -229
• Run line: San Francisco +1.5 (-103) | Los Angeles -1.5 (-107)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+124) | Under 8.5 (-137)

Giants vs Dodgers trend

The Giants have hit the Under in four of their last five road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Giants vs Dodgers and game info

Giants vs Dodgers latest injuries

Giants vs Dodgers weather

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