Category: Baseball

The most difficult time in an MLB career is now for Guardians’ young hitters.

Baseball is a game of constant adjustments, and those adjustments are almost never more volatile than after a new MLB player has their first hot stretch in the show. Today we’re going to discuss what to expect going forward with some of the young hitters on the Guardians roster this season. Specifically, we’re going to look at the youngest hitters currently playing almost every day on the roster: Chase DeLauter, Travis Bazzana, Brayan Rocchio, Angel Martínez, and Kyle Manzardo. In looking at them, I’d like to take you through the early careers of some veteran players that ended up becoming superstars, and consistent MVP contenders. We’re also going to break down results vs. process and what to look for that may cause concern.

First, let’s look at some examples of some modern superstars in their rookie season, and a very recent Rookie of the Year winner. For this section, we’re just going to look at the results because this will establish an important premise we need for later on. First, let’s take a look at Bryce Harper in 2012. Bryce Harper started the first 8 games of his career with a .924 OPS. The next 12 games it was .625. The next 20 games it was 1.144. For the next 55 games his OPS was .563, and he finished that season putting up a 1.044 OPS in the final 44 games. We can already see that even a multitime MVP/All-Star/Silver Slugger winner that broke into the league as one of the most highly anticipated MLB prospects in a very long time had a lot of ups and downs in their first season.

Another MVP and Rookie of the Year recipient, Ronald Acuña Jr., had a similarly up and down Rookie of the Year campaign. He got off to a very hot start, hitting to a 1.289 OPS in his first 5 games, but quickly cooled off. In his next 22 games, his OPS was only .609, and in the 16 games after that it was a respectable, but underwhelming for the young star, .764. After that, he went on a tear over the next 53 games, with an OPS of 1.134, before cooling off for the final 15 games with an OPS of just .652.

Lastly, let’s look at the reigning AL Rookie of the Year winner Nick Kurtz’s 2025 season. Unlike the others, he got off to a very slow start. In his first 23 games, his OPS was just .558. The next 22 games it was 1.107, and the 22 after that it was an unbelievable 1.478. He then cooled off for a bit. His next 14 games only saw him have an OPS of .693. The next 17 games it was 1.227. After that, for 15 games he cooled off again down to an OPS of .708, and he ended the season with a 1.228 OPS in the final 4 games.

In just these three examples, we see extreme swings within each hitter. Sometimes lasting only a few weeks, but sometimes lasting multiple months. We can’t determine a lot from OPS results on their own because they are incredibly noisy. A lot of factors can cause big swings in a sample size even as large as 20 games. It could be having several games in a 20 game stretch where you face the top 2 pitchers in every team’s starting rotation. It could be the hitter overswinging or chasing out of the zone more. It could even be a week of cold humid weather causing a handful of balls that would be extra base hits under normal conditions getting knocked down by the wind and being outs instead.

All of this is to say that these OPS results alone don’t tell us much apart from “it might be time to take a look under the hood and see if we’re doing something wrong,” and these examples are just to illustrate that even the best hitters go through major ups and downs, especially as rookies.

There’s going to be a lot of data to look at coming up, so first I want to briefly explain how it’s all organized. For each of the five Guardians players we are looking at today, I’ve given each their own table. Each player has had their season broken down into 4-5 buckets of games purely by OPS results. For each bucket, we are going to be highlighting 7 statistics (not including the OPS) for each bucket. The stats are grouped into 4(ish) layers. We start with Layer 1: Swing Decisions. Next is Layer 2: Contact Ability. The next layer I have listed as Layer 2.5: Bat Speed. This is put between layers 2 and 3 because it doesn’t truly fit with either one, but is an important bridge that connects the two layers. Next is Layer 3: Contact Quality, and last is Layer 4: Results. Now that we have established how all the data we will be looking at is organized and what statistics we are looking at, I will put the tables for all 5 players below. The individual statistics will have definitions and explanations at the end for clarity.

We can see that each of these young hitters is going through ups and downs. The first thing I think we can all see is the difference between the true rookies (Chase and Bazzana) and the young hitters that already have a few seasons under their belts. We can see in general that the rookies’ numbers are overall significantly more erratic, and the stat where that stands out the most in my mind is bat speed.

Both Chase’s and Bazzana’s average bat speeds swing wildly, with differences up to and even over 2 mph. But if we look at Manzo, Angel, and Rocchio, they are consistently within a 1 mph range. If we look in layers 1 and 2, we can see that the 3 young hitters with more experience have similarly clustered numbers in those categories, with maybe 1 outlier, and this is where we can also see Chase separating himself from Bazzana a bit. 

Chase’s Whiff and Chase rates in his most recent 3 buckets are all much more tightly clustered and a decent chunk lower than his first bucket, but Bazzana is seeing some spiking in chase and in whiff for his most recent two buckets. I believe this already illustrates very well how volatile early career MLB adjusting is for hitters, and shows how just a couple seasons of experience flattens out underlying metrics quite a bit.

This is not to say that an even more experienced hitter won’t go on a stretch where their chase rate skyrockets 12 points, but more that those outliers become more rare. This example, though, is the first of one of our previously listed types of slumps – one caused by plate approach deterioration.

When talking about our Rookie of the Year examples earlier, we mentioned one potential type of slump we see hitters go through is because they start over swinging or chasing more out of the zone. That could be considered a plate approach deterioration slump. In bucket four, Travis Bazzana’s Chase% and Whiff% have both increased significantly, and we see the OPS result within that bucket has gotten quite poor. It would be reasonable to think that’s a likely cause of the slump. Swinging at more pitches out of the zone leads to more swings and misses, and when you do make contact on those pitches, it is often weaker contact. Less and weaker contact in general leads to fewer walks and hits, and that of course leads to lower OPS numbers.

Is this cause for concern? Well, the short answer is probably not. Ultimately, this bucket is just 10 games. This very easily could just be a bad couple weeks, and he could make some adjustments and get the numbers back under control. Variations like this in a rookie season are incredibly normal, and they don’t really become a concern unless the same numbers do not improve or get worse over an extended period of time.

Now that we’ve seen how approach deterioration can lead to a slump, we can move on to the next layer. If we look at Chase’s second and third buckets, we can see Chase% difference is only 0.5, and Whiff% difference is only 2.6. The Z-Contact% difference is a bit larger here, but both numbers are still fairly close together. So the approach looks very consistent, but the OPS difference is massive. Over 850 points! What’s going on here?

This brings us to our next potential type of slump – a contact quality slump. When looking at these two buckets, we can see the Hard-Hit% difference is massive, as is the average exit velocity, and the xwOBA difference. What we’re seeing here is significantly worse contact quality. This is where it gets a little less visible in traditional stats. We see the lower velocity, but what causes it? This is where variance comes into play. Sometimes in baseball, being an extra 5-10 milliseconds too late or too early can be the difference between a home run and a foul ball. Sometimes, the contact point on the ball being just a few millimeters to high or too low can be the difference between a HR and a warning track flyout, or the difference between a hard low liner between infielders for a hit and a ball hit into the ground more that loses enough speed for the fielder to reach it and get a forceout. These small differences aren’t always immediately obvious either, but being just out of sync with your swing path or slightly off timing wise can result in massive differences in results as well. 

So what we may be seeing here is Chase was maintaining a consistent approach over the span of both buckets, but in the second bucket the swings started being a lot more flush with the ball and resulted in much higher contact quality and better results.

The last example I want to look at today is Manzardo’s bucket two and three. We look at his swing decisions, and he’s chasing 5.5% less. Now we look at contact ability: he’s swinging and missing 11.1% less and making significantly more contact in the zone. The contact quality looks significantly better too. Hard-Hit% skyrockets, average exit velocity takes a big jump, and xwOBA increases by nearly 100 points. This looks like a huge improvement across the board, but when we look at the OPS, it’s actually gone down almost 100 points. How is that possible?

Well this brings us to the final example of slumps we see – a luck slump. Sometimes in this sport, you can do everything right and still not see successful results in the box score. Now we’re looking more at the factors that are largely considered out of the hitter’s control – things like strong winds or exact batted ball placement. Sometimes, a hitter will hit a long flyball that on a normal day is a home run, but because it’s extremely humid or cold and windy, the ball just dies on the warning track. Other times, a batter might hit a scalding line drive, and a fielder will make a diving catch and rob the hitter of a hit or even an extra base hit.

When we look at those two Manzardo buckets, this type of result is consistent with these and similar factors, and ultimately these are the type of slumps that should be the least concerning. What we’re effectively saying here is the hitter is doing everything in their power very well, but just hasn’t gotten positive results. For some, this can feel like the most annoying type of slump because it really is largely out of the hitter’s control. But since it is outside of the hitter’s control, all you can do is hold the line and hope the luck swings back your way.

With young hitters, we see a lot less consistency in layers 1 and 2, and we see that especially in the rookie hitters. Now I have one more data table to share. This one is by far my favorite. I’m not going to go in depth on this data as much as the previous set, but I want to share this to illustrate the larger point. The next table is from José Ramírez’s 2024 campaign.

It is obviously incredibly unfair to hold most other players to the standard of José Ramírez, but I think his buckets here are a great example of how as good hitters develop and learn the league, you start to see layers 1 and 2 have much tighter distributions. Better hitters will have very few outliers in these layers, and you start to see a lot more variance in layer 3. We see this trend beginning to show itself also in the non rookie hitters we looked at before.

So what should we expect from these young hitters going forward? For the rookies, it’s very possible we see a lot of ups and downs going forward. After all, that’s what happened with the three Rookie of the Year winners we looked at before. One of the most important things we’ve learned is that not all of the downs are created equally. The next time we see one of these hitters going into a little bit of a downswing, we can break it down, see what type of slump we’re looking at, and determine how concerning the slump is.

I believe that as long as the young hitters can stay focused on getting that consistency in their approach and can minimize the layer 1 and 2 slumps, they’re taking a very important first step into solidifying themselves as legitimate big leaguers.

Stats:

Chase%: The percentage of pitches a batter sees outside the ABS strike zone that they swing at

Whiff%: The percentage of pitches a batter swings at and does not make contact

Z-Contact%: The percentage of pitches in the ABS strike zone a batter makes contact with when swinging

Hard-Hit%: The percentage of batted balls with exit velocities of 95 mph or higher

The news that the team got on Adolis Garcia was probably the worst news they could get.

Even with the recent uptick in Garcia’s hitting, right field was still something of a weakness for the team. He wasn’t hitting much, but his defense was an outright asset to have. Not having him available for (likely) the remainder of the season means that plans need to be scrambled to not let that new weaker weakness get any worse.

The plan for now looks to be a platoon of Gabriel Rincones and Derek Hill. Both have their strengths at the plate, but is that the ideal option for the team? There has been plenty written and said about the dearth of good right handed hitting outfielders in the game, which now means everyone knows the Phillies have a glaring need to address if they look to the trade market.

Which brings us to our question of the day. Which is the better option in the scope of the entire season: a platoon of Rincones and Hill, or a trade for a veteran bat? The platoon is the obvious choice moving forward, likely until the days before the trade deadline. If it’s working, it might make that kind of trade less a priority. Yet if both are struggling at doing their jobs, maybe an upgrade for Rincones and Hill is the new top idea for the team.

Triple-A: Memphis (Cardinals) 10, Norfolk Tides 2

The Tides scored first in the game, with Enrique Bradfield’s leadoff walk turning into a run after a stolen base and an RBI single hit by Heston Kjerstad. Unfortunately, Norfolk’s starter, Trace Bright, had the opposite of a shutdown inning, allowing Memphis to score five runs in the next half-inning. Bright’s day ended after 4.2 innings with six runs allowed. Things did not improve from there.

There were a pair of errors as well, including one by shortstop José Barrero. He’s cooled off substantially after his scorching April, now with a .779 OPS and 11 errors committed.

On the plus side, the guy Creed Willems just keeps on hitting. Two singles and a walk across four plate appearances in the game, bumping his season batting line to .279/.368/.495. That looks good. I don’t know what the Orioles are going to do with him, but that looks good.

Box score.

Double-A: Altoona (Pirates) 10, Chesapeake Baysox 8

The Baysox made this one interesting later on, scoring a run in the eighth and three in the ninth and ending up with the tying run at the plate with nobody out. They could not get any closer, though. They’d been dug too much of a hole by a few of their pitchers, starting with my honorary hyphenated cousin, Juaron Watts-Brown, who was hit for five runs (four earned) in only three innings. Juan Rojas, once notable for being in the Jorge López trade, gave up two runs in an inning. Chesapeake’s pitchers gave up 15 hits and eight walks overall. Ouch.

Not much of the offense had the prospects of note here contributing to it. My guy Aron Estrada took an 0-4, striking out twice. Thomas Sosa had a double in four at-bats. Late in the game, Ethan Anderson pinch hit; he didn’t make anything happen. One guy who did make things happen for Chesapeake was outfielder Douglas Hodo, who homered twice. He’s 25 at Double-A, so other prospects are far ahead of him in the system, but the .922 OPS in 12 games so far is nice for him.

Box score.

High-A: Brooklyn (Mets) 13, Frederick Keys 4

23-year-old righty Yeiber Cartaya has been on a good run since starting the season with the Keys. This one, however, was not good. He walked four guys and gave up five hits in a four inning outing, with six runs (five earned) surrendered.

Frederick was never in the game from that point onward, and only a late three-run home run hit by Ike Irish in the eighth inning kept this from being a total waste. The Irish homer was his ninth of the season. He was also credited with an outfield assist, nailing a runner at third base from right field. Nice work. Wehiwa Aloy and Victor Figueroa were among those who stayed hitless. All three of these guys have an OPS of at least .829, so hopefully this game is just a blip.

Box score.

Low-A: Delmarva Shorebirds 9, Columbia (Royals) 6

We’ve finally got a winner here! The Shorebirds offense made sure this one ended up in the win column as they combined 11 hits and 12 walks. That’s a lot of traffic on the bases; the team was 5-17 with RISP and still managed to leave 13 men on base. It didn’t hurt them.

On base all six times that he batted was Jaiden Lo Re, a fifth round pick out of his Arizona high school last year. Lo Re recently joined the Shorebirds after mostly romping through the Florida Complex League. His night includes two hits, four walks, and two stolen bases. He is just seven games into his time with Delmarva, but for now the 19-year-old has a .975 OPS. Between the two levels, he’s walked 17 times while only striking out 10 this season. Maybe there’s another guy following the Nate George path. Lo Re did commit one of the four Delmarva errors. Low-A is a long way from the majors.

Two other Shorebirds also had multi-hit games. One was Elvin Garcia, also 19, who had two singles and a triple in the game. First baseman Miguel Rodríguez also had three hits.

Starting pitcher Christian Rodriguez also deserves a shout-out here, as he struck out nine batters over a 6.1 inning start. Rodriguez, a 2024 draft pick, is 24 years old and only got to make his debut with an affiliate this year. That’s old for the level. He has a 3.43 ERA after this start and has struck out 70 batters in 57.2 innings. Next time someone gets promoted out of Frederick’s rotation, maybe he’ll move up.

Box score.

Saturday’s Scheduled Games

• Norfolk: vs. Memphis, 6:35. Starter: Christian Herberholz
• Chesapeake: at Altoona, 6:00. Starter: Evan Yates
• Frederick: at Brooklyn, 6:00. Starter: JT Quinn
• Delmarva: at Columbia, 6:05. Starter: Denton Biller

SAN FRANCISCO — Raise your hand if you knew that by mid-June, Javier Assad and Ben Brown would be the saviors of the Cubs starting rotation.

I better not see any hands because you did not know. I did not know. No one knew.

Assad had his second straight outstanding outing — both against the Giants. Friday evening at Oracle Park, Assad threw six strong innings, allowing three hits and one run, and Michael Busch’s three-run “splash hit” home run was the big blow offensively in a 5-1 Cubs victory. Hey look, a baby winning streak — two games! It’s the first time the Cubs have won consecutive games since May 27 and 28 in Pittsburgh. And it was the Cubs’ first win in San Francisco since 2024, as they got swept at Oracle Park in a three-game series last August.

The game began as a pitcher’s duel. Assad retired nine straight Giants after a leadoff single in the first. The Cubs had just one baserunner over those first two innings on a Seiya Suzuki double. He reached third but was stranded. While all that was going on, Giants catcher Daniel Susac was challenging pitches — quite a few of them. He challenged five times, got four of them correct, and three times a ball was overturned resulting in strike three on a Cubs hitter.

The Cubs finally broke through in the fourth. Busch led off with a walk. He was forced at second b Ian Happ.

Suzuki’s double to deep left-center scored Happ to make it 1-0 Cubs [VIDEO].

Suzuki took third on the throw to the plate. That was important because it resulted in the second Cubs run of the inning on this sac fly by Nico Hoerner [VIDEO].

The Cubs had another multi-run inning in the fifth. Carson Kelly led off with a walk. One out later Alex Bregman doubled, with Kelly stopping at third.

Then Busch launched his splash hit home run [VIDEO].

Here are the numbers on that blast [VIDEO].

Assad continued dealing, including making this play (overturned from “safe” to “out” on review) on a ball that went off his leg in the sixth. He struck out five [VIDEO].

Here’s more on Assad’s outing [VIDEO].

And some historical perspective on Assad’s night from BCB’s JohnW53:

Javier Assad pitched six shutout innings, after having pitched 6.1 without giving up a run in his relief appearance Sunday.

There have been 115 instances since 1901 of a Cub pitching at least two straight games with six innings and no runs.

Assad is just the ninth to do in with a start and in relief — and the first since Monk Dubiel on June 27 and July 2, 1950. Dubiel pitched the final 7.1 innings of a 3-2 loss at home vs. the Cardinals, then threw a complete game in a 16-0 romp at Cincinnati.

The previous eight, in chronological order: Carl Lundgren (1907), Guy Bush (1927), Charlie Root (1929), Lon Warneke (1934), Larry French (1936), Emil Kush and Paul Erickson (both 1946). They pitched between 14.1 (Erickson) and 17.1 innings (Root). Larry French pitched 12.1 innings, the same as Assad, in two relief outings in 1941.

Hoby Milner threw a 1-2-3 seventh, helped out by a really nice tag by Michael Busch on Willy Adames. Adames was called safe, but that was overturned on review [VIDEO].

Trent Thornton, just back from paternity leave (Congratulations!), threw a 1-2-3 eighth. Then Bryce Eldridge, one of MLB’s top prospects who the Giants called up about a month ago, and who hit a walkoff slam for them Wednesday, homered with one out in the ninth to spoil the Cubs’ shutout bid.

Thornton retired the next two Giants by strikeout. Here’s the final out, a K of Rafael Devers [VIDEO].

That was another satisfying win. Great pitching and five of the Cubs’ six hits were for extra bases. Here’s Busch on his home run [VIDEO].

The last two games, I hope, give the Cubs something to build on as they try to dig out of the 8-22 hole they were in. The way they played in all facets of the game is encouraging. And I mentioned Ben Brown above as someone who’s helped stabilize the rotation — and he’ll start Saturday night’s game in San Francisco. Trevor McDonald goes for the Giants. Game time is 9:05 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network.

There wasn’t a time when we got to see all of the regular season games on TBS or the Fox family of sports networks. There were always carveouts, but always for another cable channel or an over-the-air network. Basic cable was how we saw TBS, so moving to ESPN or one of the networks just meant you didn’t get Skip Caray. But now it’s Apple and ESPN and Peacock and Netflix. The Braves and MLB make a good deal of money off this. I don’t want to stand in front of the Braves making money. But that’s about 100 bucks a month with Braves.tv to see every game. To see it legally, that is.

So how much would MLB charge me to see all of the games? I mean, could we get a MLB package that lets us navigate the carveouts? Something like a “Braves.tv Plus” or some such. Would they take $50 a year? That would be present deal of 100 dollars for 140 games and Braves+ would be another 50 dollars for the other 22 games. I ask myself every time we have Apple+ game. So now I’m asking you all. Is there someone out there buying all these packages?

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The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays clash this afternoon in AL East action, and I'm expecting a clean first inning for both starters. 

That matchup will headline my top MLB picks today for the "no run first inning" and "yes run first inning" markets.

Here are my best YRFI picks and NRFI predictions for Saturday, June 13. 

Best NRFI/YRFI predictions today

Pick	Odds
/ - NRFI	-127
/ - NRFI	-117
/ - NRFI	-104

Yankees at Blue Jays: NRFI (-130)

Today's pitching matchup screams value in the NRFI market. Cy Young candidate Cam Schittler takes the ball for the New York Yankees, and he hasn't allowed a run in the first inning in 10 straight appearances. The youngster also owns a 3.14 xERA across the last month, and a 1.90 FIP on the road. 

As for the Toronto Blue Jays, they counter with Kevin Gausman. He owns a 10-4 NRFI/YRFI record in 2026, and Gausman has been brilliant at home, posting a 2.63 xFIP while walking just 0.99 hitters per nine innings. 

The Yankees have failed to score in the first inning in three straight games, while the Jays have scored in the opening frame just once in their last six games. This offense usually takes time to get going, and Schlittler often comes out sharp.

I'll play this pick up to -140. 

• Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: YES Network, Sportsnet

Cubs at Giants: NRFI (-119)

Reliever turned starter Ben Brown gets the call tonight for the Chicago Cubs, and he's been lights out. The righty has a 5-1 NRFI/YRFI record, and he's riding a three-game streak without giving up any runs in the first inning. Additionally, Brown owns a stellar 2.43 xERA over his last 12.1 innings. 

On the other side, San Francisco Giants starter Trevor McDonald has collected a 5-2 NRFI/YRFI record this season, and while he's had his issues at times lately with a 4.21 FIP over his last two starts, the Cubbies aren't at their best offensively, carrying an ISO well under .200 while averaging just 3.8 runs per game across their last six. Chicago hasn't scored in the first in nine straight, while San Fran hasn't come across the plate in the opening frame in four in a row. 

I'll play this pick up to -140. 

• Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, NBC Sports Bay Area

Diamondbacks at Reds: NRFI (-111)

The Arizona Diamondbacks will send Michael Soroka to the mound here, and he's more or less steered clear of trouble in the first. He carries a 9-4 NRFI/YRFI record to go along with a 3.00 xERA over his previous two appearances. The Cincinnati Reds are batting just .222 in the first, and haven't scored in the opening frame in six consecutive games. 

As for the Cincinnati Reds, they counter with Rhett Lowder. While he's not as reliable, Lowder has kept scoreless frames in the first in back-to-back outings, and the Diamondbacks aren't exactly thriving offensively out of the gates. They've failed to score in the first in three straight contests. 

I'll play this pick up -130. 

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Reds.TV, DBacks.TV

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Last week, I did my best to quantify how the Cardinals’ minor league pitching talent was developing so far this year. When looking at both team level statistics and individual breakouts, I concluded that 2026 has been a net positive for the pitching pipeline. Today, I want to do the same review for the Cardinals’ minor league hitters following the same structure.

Team Statistics Overview

For the team level statistics, I am focusing on age, K%, BB%, and isolated slugging. The average age is weighted by the number of plate appearances. 

There has been an explosion of home runs at the four lowest levels of the minor leagues, so I also looked at leaguewide statistics to normalize the Cardinals performances. 

Changes in Prospect Grades

I am highlighting players that, in my opinion, have significantly changed their prospect grade based on their performance this year. My intent was to be very conservative about moving players since we are still relatively early on in the year. For example, Joshua Baez is having an impressive season in the power department but has not answered questions around his contact ability. For me, he is performing as expected for a player that was ranked in the top-50 on many of the national prospect lists. I am also only focused on players that, in my opinion, are roughly top-50 overall prospects in the organization. Tre Richardson III is obliterating the Midwest League and has obviously improved his prospect status, but he is not listed here as I do not believe he has reached “real prospect” territory. 

Overall, the goal remains to determine if, as a whole, the hitting prospects in the Cardinals system are over or underperforming reasonable pre-season expectations. Finally, I am including the FanGraphs preseason ranking for each prospect for reference.

Memphis Redbirds

The first section in the table shows the year-over-year changes to the age, K%, BB%, and HR% for the International League as a whole. The second section of the table shows the Cardinals-specific performance in 2025 and 2026. Finally, the Cardinals vs. League section shows the Redbirds performance relative to the league year-over-year. The scores are scaled so that 100 is average and higher is better. 

The International League environment is much the same as it was last season. The Redbirds have an excellent offense yet again, but this year it is built on power rather than contact. The 2025 Memphis team had contact wizards like Cesar Prieto, Bryan Torres, Jose Fermin, Nathan Church, and JJ Wetherholt propelling them to a strikeout rate 19% better than league average. With that group mostly in St. Louis, the team has seen a massive power uptick going from below league average in isolated slugging to 12% better than the league average. 

Prospects holding steady

Joshua Baez (7), Leonardo Bernal (9), Cesar Prieto (27)

Prospects trending up

Jimmy Crooks (4) will be graduating from the prospect category soon, but he still counts for a few more days. His power explosion in Triple-A has clearly increased his stock. Crooks hit 13 home runs in just 39 games en route to a 151 wRC+ at Memphis. He improved his exit velocity metrics across the board while increasing his Barrel% from 7.9% to an elite 18.2%.  Blaze Jordan (26) has improved his Triple-A wRC+ from 83 to 137 and now looks like a real prospect rather than a potential bench bat. Throughout his minor league career, Jordan has struggled upon initial promotion to a new level and then come back the next year to torch the league before earning another promotion and repeating the process. Hopefully he gets a shot at St. Louis in the second half immediately to start to get the adjustment period underway.  Bryan Torres (47) was never going to get prospect love as a late-20s independent league alum, but he just keeps hitting. Even if he settles in as a bench player, that will be a huge win for the organization.  ZiPS gives him a projected rest-of-season wRC+ of 112, so there is reason to believe the bat can continue to play.

Prospects trending down

Colton Ledbetter (46), acquired in the Brendan Donovan trade as a toolsy lottery ticket, has not been able to make consistent contact. The only player to strike out as much as Ledbetter in Triple-A since 2006 (37%) and go on to have a meaningful major league career was Joey Gallo. 

Springfield Cardinals

Outside of Rainiel Rodriguez, the Springfield roster is lacking any prospect firepower on the offensive side. While the Cardinals are running good strikeout and walk numbers, the isolated slugging is 14% below league average. 

Prospects holding steady

Rainiel Rodriguez (3), Chase Davis (50)

Prospects trending up

With the amount of focus on the Cardinals’ minor league system, it is tough to find an under the radar prospect these days. Ryan Campos (NR) might be the guy. He hasn’t gotten much love from the prospect-watching community.  He is listed at 5’8″, has not hit for power, and has struggled to throw out runners. I think the general lack of loud tools has obscured the fact that Campos can really hit. For reference, here is how Campos’s Double-A stat line stacks up with two former lefty-swinging Springfield Cardinals. 

Prospects trending down

Deniel Ortiz (NR) was injured in the first game of the year and is now back on a rehab assignment. 

Peoria Chiefs

Peoria has had an offensive explosion more than doubling the team ISO year-over-year. The group of hitters is also half a year younger on average. Sure walks are down and strikeouts are up, but just look at that power! 

Prospects holding steady

Jesus Baez (20)

Prospects trending up

Tai Peete (14) has battled injuries but has done enough when on the field to materially improve his stock. His wRC+ has increased from 79 to 117. While he is still striking out more than 30% of the time, he has gotten to a new level in the power department. While there is not publicly available statcast data for the Midwest League, Baseball America has highlighted Peete as one of the players to most improve their exit velocity metrics. This improved contact quality has helped Peete increase his isolated slugging from .187 to .256.  Jack Gurevitch (48) had absurd exit velocity numbers in Palm Beach before being promoted to Peoria. His 50th, 90th, and max exit velocities were all the 99th percentile. Gurevitch has continued to mash at Peoria while also reducing his strikeout rate from 30.5% to 24.1%. He probably needs to get promoted to Double-A and continue mashing to start getting national attention, but the results and the metrics have been exceptional.  Won-Bin Cho (49) is finally hitting for the power (.241 ISO) that made him famous as an amateur. However, he is in his third crack at High-A, so he will have to continue this success in Springfield to entice me to join the bandwagon. 

Prospects trending down

None

Palm Beach Cardinals

Ryan Mitchell is the only top-50 position player prospect currently on the active roster. While the 2026 roster is a bit older than last year’s version, the walk, strikeout, and ISO metrics are all improved relative to the league. 

Prospects holding steady

Ryan Mitchell (13)

Prospects trending up

None

Prospects trending down

Yairo Padilla (8) hurt his shoulder in spring training and has yet to see the field. 

Florida Complex League

Prospects holding steady

Juan Rujano (29)

Prospects trending up

Sebastian Dos Santos (52) and Miguel Hernandez (NR) probably had the most buzz in spring training this year among the group of players coming up from the Dominican Summer League. While both had excellent pro debuts last year, it is hard to get too excited scouting DSL stat lines. Dos Santos is not quite at the Rainiel Rodriguez level from last year, but his 150 wRC+ and six home runs through 26 games are excellent for a middle infielder. Hernandez had a bad first couple weeks, but has been excellent the last month and has wRC+ of 100 with five home runs through 25 games. Both players are setting themselves up for a potential debut in Low-A later this season, which would start to put them on the prospect radar in earnest. 

Prospects trending down

None

Conclusion

All things considered, it has been a pretty solid start to the year for the position player prospects in the system. The excellent showings from Crooks, Jordan, and Torres are already having an impact at the major league level. Campos looks like a future major leaguer in some capacity. The Gurevitch, Peete, Cho power explosion in Peoria has been encouraging. Dos Santos and Hernandez could lead the next wave of international talent. The only real disappointments so far have been the injuries to Padilla and Ortiz. 

Looking at team statistics in the aggregate, the increase in power is substantial. The combined isolated slugging has risen from .124 last year to .171 so far this season. Every team except for Palm Beach is younger than the league average. While strikeouts are up a bit, the system as a whole is still above average on that front as well. 

The Cardinals system has not had the Rainiel Rodriguez or Joshua Baez level breakout from any player yet. Right now, I would give the position player group a passing grade, but there is a lot of baseball to be played. How will Ortiz and Padilla (assuming he is back at some point) finish the year? Can Dos Santos or Hernandez earn a shot at Palm Beach? Will Emanuel Luna or another player from the DSL make a statement in their debut season? If some of these higher-upside players can make strides in the second half, we will be feeling much better about the position player depth heading into the offseason.  

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Another busy slate across the Majors means I've found more value in the home run market. 

MyMLB player props HR analysis for today's action will feature Shohei Ohtani, Alec Burleson, and Matt McLain.

Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, June 13. 

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Shohei Ohtani	+298
Alec Burleson	+690
Matt McLain	+610

Home run pick: Shohei Ohtani (+298)

Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani is finally starting to find his power stroke. He's slugged three home runs in his last six games, carrying an impressive .417 ISO and 58.8% hard hit rate during that span.

Ohtani will face Chicago White Sox starter Sean Burke this afternoon, and the matchup plays in his favor. Burke has allowed 1.89 HR/9 across his last two appearances, and 45.5% of his contact in those outings was in the air. 20% left the yard. 

Nearly 40% of Ohtani's contact is in the air on the road this season. He consistently gets the ball in the air, and Burke's recent tendency to allow fly balls and home runs creates an appealing matchup.

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CHSN, SportsNet LA

Home run pick: Alec Burleson (+690)

Alec Burleson is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now. He's gone deep in three consecutive games, and he has an astounding 52.2% hard hit rate and 26.1% barrel rate over his last six games. Additionally, Burleson also has a .560 ISO. 

Minnesota Twins starter Connor Prielipp has thrown the ball relatively well lately, but what stands out to me is that he's allowed over 50% of his contact against left-handed batters in the air. That is dangerous against a hitter like Burleson, who possesses a 40% HR/FB rate during this hot streak. 

I'll play this pick up to +500. 

• Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Cardinals.TV, Twins.TV

Home run pick: Matt McLain (+610)

Matt McLain has found his power stroke lately. He has a .556 ISO over his last five games to go along with three home runs. The Cincinnati Reds stud is consistently squaring up the baseball, carrying a 50% hard hit rate and 33.3% barrel rate. 

The matchup here is an appealing one as well. The Arizona Diamondbacks send Michael Soroka to the hill, who has allowed 1.38 HR/9 across his previous two starts. Soroka has also given up nearly 50% of his contact during that span in the air, and McLain has an average 21.5-degree launch angle over his last 22 plate appearances. That's compared to a season launch angle of just 12.4.

Soroka is a fly-ball pitcher lately, and McLain is consistently getting lift when he makes contact. 

I'll play this pick up to +450. 

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: DBacks.TV, Reds.TV

Today’s HR parlay

Shohei Ohtani	Bet Now +22223
Alec Burleson
Matt McLain

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across Major League Baseball. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Yankees fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

Just a little over a week ago, the Yankees were dealt with a pretty sizeable blow, both literally and figuratively, with the loss of Aaron Judge for four to six weeks. While he hasn’t been hitting like the Judge that we’ve come to know, the fact that he’s been dealing with a stress fracture in his rib probably played a pretty big part in that.

Despite losing their captain, the Yankees have hardly fallen off a cliff in the days since putting Judge on the injured list, including a recent sweep of a solid Cleveland Guardians team. With that in mind, we wanted to know if Yankees fans thought the team could still take home the AL East crown despite Judge’s injury. Here are the results:

Pretty overwhelmingly, fans still think they can. Ahead of Friday night’s game against the Blue Jays, the Yankees were tied with the Rays atop the division, and they had one more win on the books already. We as fans always tend to think and want the best thing will happen, so it’s not a shock that on the whole, we expect that they’ll be able to at least keep pace with Tampa Bay, and then turn it on when the likes of Judge and Max Fried return.

Of course, the Yankees have goals that go beyond just winning the division. We all would generally like to see them return to the World Series and hopefully win it. With that in mind, we also asked who the biggest threat in the American League is. The results were:

The American League is a bit of a weak crop at the moment, which probably helps as to why so many think the Yankees will be able to get past the Judge injury. Not surprisingly, fans tend to think that the Rays, who co-held the best record in the AL going into Friday with the Yankees, will be the toughest out. Ahead of Friday’s games, after the Yankees and Rays, the next best record belonged to the Chicago White Sox at 36-31. Considering how bad the ChiSox were just a couple years ago, it’s understandable to be skeptical of them. Including them, pretty much every other team in the AL is hovering around or is below .500.

[Note: Below results are from an MLB-wide survey, not just for Yankees fans.]

We, and other MLB blogs around SB Nation, also asked who the best hitter is baseball was at the moment, and Astros’ slugger Yordan Alvarez came out with that crown. Houston as a team is struggling this season, but Alvarez went into Friday with a 1.066 OPS and led the league in several statistical categories. Of note for us is that Ben Rice is getting plenty of love too. Rice showed promising signs last year, but he’s exploded into life in 2026, with a 1.055 OPS and 18 home runs through Thursday.

These survey results are sponsored by FanDuel.

Red Sox 10, Rangers 1

• That was a trash game.
• Just trash.
• As a Rangers fan, it felt good for a half inning, when the Rangers hit three singles in the first to score a run and give the team a 1-0 lead.
• After that, everything was ass.
• Those three first inning singles? Half of the Rangers’ hit total for the day.
• Jack Leiter wasn’t good, something that is recurring with an alarming frequency this year.
• A pair of runs allowed in the first, highlighted by a Willson Contreras homer.
• Then four more in the fifth — Leiter’s last inning — when the first four batters of the inning went double-double-double-sing.
• This is the second straight start where Leiter has allowed at least five runs, and the fourth time in his last five starts where he has allowed at least four runs. Leiter has allowed four runs or more in eight of the fourteen stars he has made this year.
• After a solid 2025 season, the expectation was that Leiter would take a step forward in 2026. Instead, he appears to have taken a step backwards.
• Leiter has now allowed 19 runs in 12.1 IP in the fifth inning of games this year. That seems less than ideal.
• Cal Quantrill and Luis Curvelo, apparently not wanting Leiter to feel bad, chipped in, with Quantrill allowing one run and Curvelo three.
• Luis Curvelo is now sporting a 7.56 ERA and 7.91 FIP on the season.
• Oh, and Evan Carter left the game with an oblique issue after making a diving catch.
• Trash game. Bleah.
• Jack Leiter hit 98.4 mph with his fastball, averaging 96.9 mph. Cal Quantrill hit 95.5 mph with his sinker. Luis Curvelo topped out at 97.0 mph with his fastball.
• Josh Jung had a 105.7 mph single. Wyatt Langford had a 101.7 mph fly out.
• We are moving on to the next game and forgetting this one happened.

Shohei Ohtani did not play in Friday’s series opener in Chicago after leaving Thursday’s game in Pittsburgh with left knee inflammation. Ohtani got an MRI on his left knee with showed “normal wear and tear,” manager Dave Roberts told reporters Friday in Chicago.

“With the travel, just to give him an extra day. My hope is that he’s in there tomorrow. But if not, he’ll need another day. It’s something we think we can manage, not an IL situation,” Roberts said, as shown on SportsNet LA. “Seeing him today, he feels fine-ish. But again, just giving him the extra day is the smart thing to do.”

Jack Harris at the California Post has more on Ohtani sitting on Friday, as does Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register.

Links

Dusty Baker had quite the baseball life, with over five decades in the sport as a player, coach, and manager, including eight seasons playing for the Dodgers. Baker has a new memoir out, and Daniel Brown at The Athletic profiled the 77-year-old in an engaging interview. This little aside really tickled me:

“I used to hang out with Tom Selleck. We worked out together,” Baker says. “In L.A., you might run into anybody. He was a good dude.”

Dr. Neal ElAttrache, the team physician for the Dodgers and Los Angeles Rams, and renowned surgeon who, among other things, also performed the recent arthroscopic nano-needle surgery on Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal in May, found himself in hot water on Thursday.

ElAttrache wrote a letter of support for UFC star Connor McGregor to use performance-enhancing drugs while McGregor rehabbed from a broken leg suffered in 2021, reported by Michael S. Schmidt of the New York Times.

Major League Baseball is looking into the situation, and ElAttrache has already spoken with MLB, he said in a statement released on Friday to Matt Morte of the New York Times:

“I have spoken with MLB and I am very comfortable with the process that the league and I will complete to assure the public that I have followed every rule and regulation in my medical treatment of athletes without exception” ElAttrache said in a statement. “My record is completely clean including in this case. I will leave it to MLB officials to provide any further comment as they see fit.“

Good morning, baseball fans!

Another week of San Francisco Giants baseball is coming to an end this weekend, so it’s time to make our picks for Player of the Week!

I am really enjoying this thing that the Giants are doing lately where it’s actually difficult to make my picks for these because there are too many great options. It’s a nice change!

But there’s absolutely no universe in which my pick for this week isn’t Bryce Eldridge! Obviously he wasn’t the only one coming up big in Wednesday’s epic comeback win over the Washington Nationals. But Eldridge was the one that got THE big swing of the bat that sent everyone home happy with his walk-off grand slam in the bottom of the ninth inning.

I also want to take a moment to wish both my brother and Matt Cain’s perfect game a Happy Birthday! Pretty great day, if you ask me.

Who is your pick for Player of the Week?

What time do the Giants play today?

The Giants continue this weekend series against the Chicago Cubs tonight at 7:05 p.m. PT.

Today’s Reflections

Not that I was snoozing ….. but, boy, Seiya Suzuki’s slam had to wake everybody up, especially the other bats.

Speaking of Suzuki, Seiya must have read Ken Rosenthal’s article suggesting that the Cubs trade him (see link bel0w). Just like 100 million other people who read the article, those of which who are baseball writers went on a feeding frenzy. “(Enter team’s name) should trade for Suzuki.” I included the only article that actually posted a trade idea — for what it is.

The article by Sahadev Sharma on Edward Cabrera shows amazing detail on how the Pitch Lab went about providing the adjustments that Cabrera needed. I know people roll their eyes at the words “Pitch Lab” (I do at times as well), but if the work Tommy Hottovy put into Cabrera led to his performance in Colorado and he can build from there, there might be something to the Lab (at least in isolated situations).

*means autoplay on, (directions to remove for Firefox and Chrome). {$} means paywall. {$} means limited views. Italics are often used on this page as sarcasm font. The powers that be have enabled real sarcasm font in the comments.

Mr. Rosenthal has entered the chat — More trade talk:

• Ken Rosenthal (The Athletic {$}): Why it would behoove the Cubs to explore the market for Seiya Suzuki, plus more MLB notes. “The Cubs could use a jolt. They need to extract value from at least one of their potential free agents. And in a sport increasingly lacking in potent right-handed hitters, Suzuki figures to be in demand.”
• Josh Davis (Clutch Points): Braves’ perfect trade offer for Cubs’ Seiya Suzuki after Ronald Acuna Jr. injury. “Why the Atlanta Braves should pursue Seiya Suzuki after Ronald Acuna Jr.’s injury to reinforce their lineup for a World Series run.”
• Elias Schuster (Chicago Cubs On SI): If the Cubs Plan to Be Buyers, They’re Now on the Clock After Taillon Injury News. “The Chicago Cubs have lost another starter for an extended stretch, which could mean the next few weeks will make or break their season.”

Analysis of Thursday’s win:

• Meghan Montemurro (Chicago Tribune {$}): Seiya Suzuki and Alex Bregman finally deliver big home runs for Chicago Cubs in 9-3 win to avert sweep. “The Cubs hadn’t slugged three home runs in a game since April 25, part of a four-week stretch to start the season of recording five games with three homers.”
• Joey Mistretta (Clutch Points): Cubs’ Craig Counsell sends brutally honest message to team after defeating Rockies. “The Cubs’ injury concerns have been impossible to ignore. They have certainly played a role in the team’s underwhelming overall season. However, many players have underperformed as well. The Cubs know they need to be better.”
• Sahadev Sharma (The Athletic {$}): How the Cubs used Edward Cabrera’s 15-day IL stint to get his stuff back. “When Edward Cabrera hit the injured list with a blister issue, Chicago’s coaching staff went to work with him.:
• Matthew Trueblood (North Side Baseball): How Seiya Suzuki Slid Back into the Right Rhythm to Blast Thursday’s Key Grand Slam. “Nothing went right for Seiya Suzuki in May, when he batted .190 with little power. June has been a different story, and his grand slam Thursday was his biggest hit of the season.”
• Sean Sears (Chicago Cubs On SI): Cubs Win After Suzuki Grand Slam, Bregman Bomb, Counsell Ejection – 3 Takeaways. “Cubs avoid a sweep in 9-run performance from the offense, fueled by Suzuki’s grand slam.”

Some good news — before the rest:

• Michael Avallone (MLB.com): Cubs prospect Owen Ayers has a sixth sense for hits, RBIs in Double-A doubleheader. “For some, a doubleheader means twice the work. For Owen Ayers, it meant twice the opportunity to wreak havoc.”
• Jordan Bastian (MLB.com): Ben Brown: All-Star? It’s a big possibility for the Cubs. “Representing the Cubs at the All-Star Game would take his impressive campaign to another level.”
• Jordan Campbell (Cubbies Crib): Cubs might’ve just hit new low with parallel to historically bad White Sox. “Things have, in fact, been that bad.”

• Jake Misener (Cubbies Crib): Cubs all but confirm Jed Hoyer’s newest offseason mistake with latest injury update. “Another disappointing injury update. Shocker.”
• Ryan O’Rourke (Cubbies Crib): It’s becoming crystal clear who will be the first fall guy for Cubs’ 2026 failures. “Cubs fans are understandably furious with both Jed Hoyer and Craig Counsell, but neither is likely to lose their jobs yet.”
• Patrick Mooney (The Athletic {$}): Are the Cubs too uptight? A scuffling club is asking the same question. “The rapid drop-off can be attributed to a variety of factors, from pitching injuries to the law of averages to the club’s best hitters failing to deliver with runners in scoring position. Clearly, something is off.”
• Vinnie Duber (Chicago Sun-Times): While Cubs search for fixes in slumbering lineup, homer-plagued pitching staff needs help, too. “The Cubs’ struggling bats might be causing the most fan frustration, but the arms haven’t been much better, allowing more homers than any team in baseball.”
• Jordan Campbell (Cubbies Crib): Jed Hoyer’s outdated vision for 2026 Cubs is unraveling in painful fashion. “The problem is that Hoyer’s need to find depth last offseason may have ignored the elephant in the room. It was made clear by the end of the 2025 season that the Cubs didn’t have a defined ace. Entering the 2026 season, it’s fair to suggest that was still case.”

Wednesday’s game story:

• Meghan Montemurro (Chicago Tribune {$}): Chicago Cubs fall back to .500 for 1st time since April 15 with walk-off loss to MLB-worst Colorado Rockies. “Cubs players slowly walked off the field while some stayed on the bench, staring out at the field. Even some coaches and support staff hung around briefly. Perhaps the reality of the Cubs’ situation was sinking in.”

Food For Thought:

Aynsley Lister is of the UK’s hottest contemporary blues guitarists. His unique brand of blues-based rock delivers contemporary song writing fueled with the kind of hear and soul that’s missing from so much modern music. Blessed with the coolest dad in town, regularly spinning Hendrix, Cream, Fleetwood Mac and a whole host of bewitching blues for his spellbound son, Aynsley taught himself to play with relentless dedication and a precociously attuned ear, spending hours copying his favourite records note for note. Peter Green, Albert King, Clapton and Kossoff weren’t just his heroes; they became his teachers.

Their influence, coupled with his dynamite live shows and an intense touring schedule, earned high profile support slots with established artists like John Mayall and Robert Cray, whilst rousing festival appearances, cemented his standing as an artist whose work, although rooted in blues, transcended the genre with a fiery modern sound that was eagerly embraced by fans of rock, pop, soul and acoustic music alike.

Please be reminded that Cub Tracks and Bleed Cubbie Blue do not necessarily endorse the content of articles, podcasts, or videos that are linked to in this series.

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The dogs are barking this Saturday.

We have 15 MLB games on the card, with several underdogs who shouldn't be, and some massive favorites we must fade on price alone.

Read on for a fun day of MLB predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, June 13. 

MLB moneyline picks for June 13

Matchup	Pick
Cardinals vs Twins	+104
Yankees vs Blue Jays	+117
Mariners vs Nationals	+104
Marlins vs Pirates	+122
Padres vs Orioles	+113
Tigers vs Guardians	+117
Dodgers vs White Sox	+178
Rangers vs Red Sox	-100
Braves vs Mets	+104
Diamondbacks vs Reds	+104
Astros vs Royals	+108
Phillies vs Brewers	+133
Rockies vs Athletics	+170
Cubs vs Giants	-104
Rays vs Angels	-122

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 6-13.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for June 13

Cardinals vs Twins: Cardinals (+104)

Cardinals win probability: 49%

Minnesota hitters strike out 21.5% of the time against lefties. Matthew Liberatore holds a steady 4.68 SIERA and a low 0.93 home run rate. St. Louis relievers have a strong 3.10 SIERA, giving them the upper hand late.

Yankees vs Blue Jays: Blue Jays (+117)

Blue Jays win probability: 46.1%

Kevin Gausman gives Toronto a real pitching edge at home. The Yankees' offense has slowed down recently, posting a 106 wRC+. New York starter Cam Schlittler has a 4.50 FIP, making the home underdog the smart play.

Mariners vs Nationals: Nationals (+104)

Nationals win probability: 49%

Cade Cavalli owns a solid 4.61 SIERA for Washington. He faces a Seattle offense that has a high 20.1% strikeout rate over the last two weeks. Both teams have matching 107 wRC+, making the home team a plus-money price great value.

Marlins vs Pirates: Marlins (+122)

Marlins win probability: 45%

Pittsburgh rookie Bubba Chandler has a high 5.36 SIERA and gives up 1.80 home runs per nine innings. Miami's bullpen is much safer with a 3.81 SIERA compared to Pittsburgh's weak 4.11 bullpen mark. Back the Miami bats to come out on top. 

Padres vs Orioles: Padres (+113)

Padres win probability: 46.9%

Baltimore starter Trey Gibson is overpriced with a poor 6.34 SIERA and a handful of strikeouts. Randy Vasquez has been much more reliable with a slightly better 5.70 SIERA. Take the better pitching numbers with the Padres on the road.

Tigers vs Guardians: Guardians (+117)

Guardians win probability: 46.1%

Tarik Skubal automatically makes the Tigers the favorites on the road. However, Joey Cantillo holds his own with a 4.46 SIERA. The real advantage is Cleveland's excellent bullpen, which has a sharp 3.59 SIERA to stop Detroit late.

Dodgers vs White Sox: White Sox (+178)

White Sox win probability: 41.5%

Rules prevent taking the Dodgers at a short price of -194. Chicago's offense has actually matched the Dodgers lately, with both teams earning a 122 wRC+. At a high +178 price, home field variance makes the White Sox worth backing.

Rangers vs Red Sox: Rangers (-100)

Rangers win probability: 50%

Texas is an excellent choice at an even pick'em price. The Rangers' offense is rolling with a 121 wRC+ over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, Boston has completely gone cold with a weak 82 team wRC+ and is hard to trust. 

Braves vs Mets: Mets (+104)

Mets win probability: 49%

Sean Manaea matches up well against an Atlanta offense that has an ordinary 102 wRC+ across the past two weeks. Atlanta starter Martin Perez has a high 5.09 SIERA. The Mets bullpen carries a strong 3.33 SIERA to protect the lead late, and are a home dog worth backing. 

Diamondbacks vs Reds: Reds (+104)

Reds win probability: 49%

Rhett Lowder gets the start for Cincinnati at home. He faces an Arizona offense that has completely flatlined. The Diamondbacks have a league-worst 65 wRC+ over the last 14 days, making the home underdog the right play.

Astros vs Royals: Astros (+108)

Astros win probability: 48.1%

Mike Burrows gets the nod for Houston. The biggest edge for the Astros is their stellar bullpen. Houston relievers have a 3.14 SIERA, which will shut down Kansas City late in the game. Take the plus-money road team.

Phillies vs Brewers: Phillies (+133)

Phillies win probability: 42.9%

The market is making a mistake by pricing the Phillies as big underdogs. Aaron Nola is a top-tier pitcher compared to Shane Drohan. Philadelphia's bullpen supports him with a strong 3.22 SIERA to keep Milwaukee quiet.

Rockies vs Athletics: Rockies (+170)

Rockies win probability: 37%

The Athletics are too expensive to back here. Colorado starter Kyle Freeland has a 4.93 SIERA, which matches up tightly with Jeffrey Springs' 5.00 SIERA. At this large a price, the Rockies and Freeland are too difficult to ignore.

Cubs vs Giants: Cubs (-104)

Cubs win probability: 51%

Ben Brown gives Chicago a stable advantage over Trevor McDonald's 4.21 SIERA. San Francisco's bullpen is in deep trouble, posting a slate-worst 5.21 SIERA over the last two weeks. Back the Cubs at a great price.

Rays vs Angels: Rays (-122)

Rays win probability: 55%

Tampa Bay has a major pitching advantage. Angels starter Jose Soriano struggles with a high 5.69 SIERA and a poor 7.59 BB/9 walk rate. The Rays will score early and exploit a mediocre Angels bullpen.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

More than 700 players have appeared in a game for the Rockies. Most do not last long. The average Rockies tenure is much closer to two years than five, which makes the long-timers easy to remember and the short stays easy to lose. 

This is not about franchise pillars, or random cameos, but Rockies who packed most of their Colorado story into one season. 

Jeff Cirillo helps draw the line. He spent two seasons with Colorado, and both were productive. In 2000, he hit .326 with 53 doubles, 115 RBI, 195 hits, an All-Star selection, and 4.5 bWAR. 

In 2001, Cirillo hit .313 with 17 home runs, 83 RBI, and 3.2 bWAR. 

If this were just a list of great short Rockies stays, Cirillo would belong. But his tenure had two good seasons, then a transaction afterlife when Colorado traded him to Seattle in the deal that brought Brian Fuentes to Denver. 

This list is narrower: One big year, one sharp impression, and then the moment was gone.

The toolsy outfielder who looked like the future: Nolan Jones, 2023 

The most recent bit of one-summer magic is Nolan Jones.

The Rockies acquired Jones from Cleveland for Juan Brito in November 2022, started him in Triple-A, and did not get the full version right away. He was recalled in April, sent back down, recalled again in May, and then caught fire after returning from the injured list.

In 2023, Jones hit .297 with 20 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and 4.3 bWAR in 106 games. He led the Rockies in Baseball-Reference WAR despite playing barely two-thirds of a season, and his outfield arm gave the profile another loud tool.

Jones looked like more than a nice find. He looked like a possible long-term answer.

Then came the follow-up. Jones fell to -0.8 bWAR in 2024, with injuries and swing-and-miss keeping the breakout from becoming a clean franchise arc. By March 2025, the Rockies had traded him back to Cleveland for Tyler Freeman.

The story has kept moving. Cleveland has since traded Jones to the White Sox. Teams are still searching for some version of the player who briefly looked like a future piece in Colorado. 

Replacing a legend: Justin Morneau, 2014 

Justin Morneau’s Rockies tenure technically stretched into 2015, but his Rockies story is really 2014. 

Todd Helton had just retired. First base at Coors Field had belonged to one player for nearly two decades. The Rockies were not going to replace him with another Helton. Nobody was. 

Then Morneau showed up and won the National League batting title. 

He hit .319 with 17 home runs and 82 RBI, giving Colorado a veteran first baseman who could still really hit. He was not Helton, and the Rockies did not need to pretend he was. Morneau was a former MVP, post-concussion and post-prime, proving there was still a high-level hitter left. 

The batting title can be dismissed by people who dismiss every Rockies batting line, but that undersells the season. Morneau gave Colorado a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat at a position that had just lost the most important player in franchise history. 

As one-year Rockies chapters go, it was about as simple as it gets: batting title, injury-limited follow-up, free agency. 

The Coors Field pitching answer: Joe Kennedy, 2004 

Joe Kennedy might be the most underrated brief-stay season in Rockies history. 

There was no All-Star selection. No major award. No playoff race. The 2004 Rockies lost 94 games, and Kennedy’s season mostly disappeared inside a bad team. 

Kennedy gave the Rockies something they almost never get: a legitimately strong starting pitching season at Coors Field. He went 9-7 with a 3.66 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 162 1/3 innings, 117 strikeouts, a 135 ERA+, and 5.6 bWAR. He became the first Rockies starter to finish a season with an ERA under 4.00 after the team moved to Coors Field. 

Kennedy was actually better in Denver, going 6-1 with a 3.59 ERA in 14 home starts. 

Jason Marquis fits this bucket, too, just differently. He gave the 2009 playoff Rockies 216 innings, an All-Star selection, and 3.5 bWAR in his only season with Colorado before leaving through free agency. 

Kennedy had less visibility and less team success. For one year, though, he solved a problem Colorado has spent most of its existence trying to solve. 

The one-year relievers: Gabe White and Greg Holland

Relievers have their own version of this. 

Greg Holland is the visible one. He came to Colorado after Tommy John surgery, took over the ninth inning for a playoff team, saved 41 games, made the All-Star team, shared the National League saves lead, won NL Comeback Player of the Year, then reached free agency. 

Gabe White is the sneaky one. He came over from Cincinnati in the Manny Aybar trade, put up 4.5 bWAR, a 2.17 ERA, 0.916 WHIP, 84 strikeouts, and a 247 ERA+ in 83 innings, then fell off in 2001 and was traded right back to Cincinnati. 

Holland has the playoff team visibility. White has the “wait, that actually happened?” stat line.

The one that still stands out: Jeffrey Hammonds, 2000

The one that still stands out most to me is Jeffrey Hammonds in 2000.

The Rockies acquired Hammonds from Cincinnati on October 30, 1999, in the trade that sent Dante Bichette to the Reds after seven seasons in Colorado. Hammonds played one season in Denver, reached free agency, signed with Milwaukee, and never again matched that summer at Coors Field.

That one season was the whole story. Hammonds played 122 games for Colorado and hit .335 with 20 home runs, 106 RBI, 14 steals, and made the All-Star team. He was not even the only Rockies position player from that roster to get there. Helton made his first All-Star appearance, and Cirillo was there, too, which is a pretty good snapshot of how ridiculous that lineup became.

The Rockies were built for offense that year. Helton was having a monster season, and Coors Field was still playing huge. But Hammonds was not just along for the ride. He gave them average, gap power, home run thump, some speed, and enough RBI production to stand out even in that environment.

That is what makes it the cleanest brief-stay Rockies season: acquired for a franchise icon, one huge year, free agency, and a reminder that not every breakout is meant to be bought.

The current version 

That is part of the point: sometimes you do not know you are watching a “one-summer-only” Rockies season while it is happening. 

Hammonds looked like he might be part of the lineup beyond 2000. Kennedy looked like he might have found something that worked at Coors Field in 2004. Jones looked like he might be part of the next good Rockies team in 2023. Each one lasted much shorter than it seemed in the moment. 

That is what makes the current roster interesting. Jake McCarthy, Tomoyuki Sugano, and Troy Johnston are Rockies right now, and all three have given Colorado something worth watching. McCarthy has brought speed and useful outfield defense. Sugano has given the Rockies real innings. Johnston is fifth in the National League in batting average and tied with Rafael Devers and Ernie Clement for the Major League lead with 20 doubles. 

Maybe their Rockies stories keep going. But maybe this summer is the chapter. Maybe years from now, this is the stretch fans look back on as the brief moment when one of them dropped a little magic in Colorado.

ON THE FARM

Triple-A: Albuquerque Isotopes 16, Tacoma Rainiers 1

The Albuquerque Isotopes (35-32) crushed the Tacoma Rainiers (28-39) 16-1 on a night that started with Gabriel Hughes’ (No. 12 PuRP) return and ended with Zac Veen (No. 9 PuRP) and Charlie Condon (No. 1 PuRP) launching back-to-back home runs.

Hughes was excellent in his first game back with Albuquerque after a rehab assignment with High-A Spokane, where he threw six scoreless innings across two starts. The right-hander worked five scoreless innings, allowing one hit and one walk while striking out four. He threw 58 of his 77 pitches for strikes and earned his first Triple-A win of the season, lowering his ERA to 7.20. Victor Vodnik followed with a scoreless inning, walking one but striking out the side, and Albuquerque pitchers held Tacoma to two hits while striking out 12.

Veen and Condon set the tone in the first inning. Veen doubled to right at 105.1 mph, his 16th double of the season, and Condon followed two batters later with a two-run homer to left-center. The 104.3 mph drive traveled 395 feet and was Condon’s 12th home run of the year.

They kept applying pressure from there. Veen added his 17th double in the third and finished 3-for-6 with two doubles, a three-run homer, three RBI, and two runs scored. He is now hitting .324 with a .985 OPS. Condon finished 3-for-4 with two home runs, five RBI, four runs scored, and two walks. His second homer of the night, and 13th overall, came immediately after Veen’s three-run shot in the ninth. Condon has now homered five times in his last five games, and both Condon and Veen have gone deep in back-to-back games.

The game was still 3-1 after seven innings before Albuquerque buried it. The Isotopes scored nine runs in the eighth, with Vimael Machín delivering the biggest swing on a three-run homer, his ninth of the season. Machín finished 2-for-5 with four RBI

Double-A: Hartford Yard Goats 11, New Hampshire Fisher Cats 1

The Hartford Yard Goats (34-26) beat the New Hampshire Fisher Cats (30-29) 11-1 behind an impressive Double-A debut from Jackson Cox (No. 16 PuRP) and a huge night from the Hartford offense.

Cox was superb in his first start with the Yard Goats after being promoted from High-A Spokane, where he had posted a 4.23 ERA and 78 strikeouts over 55.1 innings. The right-hander did not allow a hit until the fifth inning and finished with 5.1 scoreless innings, allowing three hits and three walks while striking out eight. He worked into trouble in the third with two walks and a hit batter, but escaped the bases-loaded jam with a strikeout and kept New Hampshire quiet from there.

Hartford gave Cox breathing room in the second when Conner Capel walked and Bryant Betancourt followed with his 12th home run of the season. Betancourt finished 4-for-4 with three RBI and four runs scored, raising his OPS to .861.

The Yard Goats put the game away with an eight-run fourth inning. Zach Kokoska delivered the biggest swing with a three-run double, his eighth double of the season, and Aidan Longwell later added a two-run double, his 18th. Longwell finished 3-for-5 with two RBI, while Kokoska went 2-for-5 with three RBI.

Cole Messina (No. 26 PuRP) also reached four times as the designated hitter, going 1-for-2 with his ninth double, three walks, and a run scored. Hartford finished with 16 hits and seven walks, giving Cox more than enough support in one of the Yard Goats’ most complete wins of the season.

High-A: Eugene Emeralds 7, Spokane Indians 6

The Spokane Indians (25-36) lost 7-6 to the Eugene Emeralds (41-20) on a walk-off homer after rallying back from a three-run deficit.

Jack O’Dowd stayed red hot, going 4-for-5 with two doubles and an RBI. O’Dowd singled home Ethan Hedges (No. 29 PuRP) in the first, doubled in the seventh, and doubled again to lead off the ninth before being stranded at third. In 20 games with Spokane, O’Dowd is now hitting .395/.471/.711 with a 1.182 OPS.

Tommy Hopfe also helped carry the offense, going 2-for-4 with a walk, his sixth home run of the season, and three RBI. Hopfe led off the game with a homer to center field, then tied it in the eighth with a two-run single after Spokane had fallen behind 6-3.

Hunter Omlid gave the Indians a chance, throwing three scoreless innings out of the bullpen with two strikeouts. But after Spokane missed a chance to take the lead in the top of the ninth, Trevor Cohen hit a walk-off solo homer in the bottom half to hand the Indians a tough loss.

Single-A: Visalia Rawhide 5, Fresno Grizzlies 1

The Fresno Grizzlies (31-30) lost 5-1 to the Visalia Rawhide (27-34) after scoring in the first inning but getting held quiet the rest of the way.

Yeiker Reyes opened the game with his first triple of the season, and Ashly Andujar (No. 20 PuRP) brought him home with a sacrifice fly to give Fresno a quick 1-0 lead. Reyes finished 2-for-4 and is now hitting .333 with a .777 OPS.

The lead did not last. Pedro Catuy hit a two-run homer off Riley Kelly (No. 27 PuRP) in the second inning, and Visalia added three more runs in the fifth. Kelly took the loss, allowing five runs, three earned, on three hits and four walks over 4 2/3 innings. He struck out four and now has a 5.65 ERA.

Easton Marks gave Fresno a strong finish out of the bullpen, throwing 3.1 scoreless innings with six strikeouts. The Grizzlies managed only five hits, struck out 14 times to one walk, and went 0-for-4 with runners in scoring position.

‘He looked like death’: Sullivan’s MLB debut cut short due to illness | MLB.com

MLB.com’s Arion Armeniakos writes that Sean Sullivan’s Rockies debut was brief but memorable, with illness ending his first big-league start earlier than planned. Even so, Sullivan showed enough poise to make the outing feel more encouraging than disappointing. For a Rockies rotation still sorting through options, it was a strange debut — but a promising one.

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Purple Row’s Cory Cohen looks at a Rockies injury spike that has gotten hard to dismiss as normal attrition. Colorado had been one of MLB’s healthier organizations in recent years, but 2026 has brought a wave of injuries across both the major-league roster and the farm.

Sullivan records first multihomer game, looks to bounce back from slow May | MLB.com

MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writes that Brett Sullivan turned a little momentum into his best offensive day as a Rockie, homering twice in Colorado’s loss to the Cubs. The bigger takeaway is that Sullivan is starting to look comfortable again after a rough May and limited playing time behind Hunter Goodman

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