Category: Baseball

MLB Trade Rumors: The Seattle Mariners have starting pitcher George Kirby generating trade interest, per Jeff Passan, who says that teams think that he is “available and could be moved” at the trade deadline. Passan also says that Emerson Hancock and Luis Castillo could also be moved.

Seattle has reportedly been shopping Castillo for a while. However, Castillo has been awful this season and is under contract for $22.75 million this year and next year, with a $25 million vesting option for 2028 that is triggered if he throws 180 innings in 2027, so the Mariners would have to eat a good chunk of his deal just to give him away.

Hancock, 27, is having a decent year after being replacement level or worse in his major league career previously, putting up a 3.26 ERA while seeing his K rate jump and his walk rate decrease. He still has a 4.15 xERA and 3.74 FIP, however, and is giving up a fair amount of loud contact.

Moving Castillo or Hancock would not be that noteworthy — Castillo would be a salary dump, Hancock is someone they’d potentially be selling high on, and if they traded either one they’d still have a full five man rotation. Kirby, though, would be more significant. He’s not been as good the past two seasons as he was his first three years in the league, but he’s still a reliable mid-rotation starter who is under team control through 2028, and is making just $6.55 million this year.

Seattle is currently three games back in both the American League West and in the Wild Card race, although they would have to pass four teams — currently Cleveland and Minnesota, who are tied for WC3, as well as the Rangers and the Orioles — to get a Wild Card spot. Fangraphs still has them with over a 40% chance of making the playoffs, so they aren’t out of the race by any means.

It could be that the Mariners, who lost the first of a three game series at home against the Twins on Friday, are simply testing the waters to see what is out there, or preparing for a worst case scenario if a bad weekend drops them farther down in the standings. It is also possible, though, that the Mariners front office sees a landscape with a bunch of teams fighting for playoff positions, few sellers, and the ability to reap significant returns by dealing starting pitching, with an eye towards positioning themselves better for 2027.

Of course, the Rangers could find themselves in a similar position. Evan Grant said yesterday that, if the Rangers do poorly this weekend, Joc Pederson, who is set to hit the free agent market this offseason, will be in much demand. The Rangers would be 2.5 games back in the division in the event of a sweep, and probably a similar amount back in the Wild Card race, and one would hope that that would be close enough that the team wouldn’t end up in full-fledged sell mode.

On the other hand, ownership has seemingly indicated a desire to save money. Dealing Pederson wouldn’t just get a decent prospect or two back, it would shed roughly $6 million in salary over the remainder of the season. And we’ve already heard unpleasant rumblings about the possibility of Texas looking to move Corey Seager to save money…and if the Rangers decided to be sellers and deal Seager on Monday, would Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom sent packing as well, in an effort to make Ray Davis & Co.‘s bottom line as black as possible?

It occurs to me that if the Rangers take the next two games in Houston — or even split — there will be pressure on the team to buy, to add payroll, to make a push to try to win a very winnable division. Losing the next two games would potentially provide cover for the Rangers if they decided to go into sell mode, reaping benefits of the concomitant payroll savings that would ensue.

And leads me to wonder…what outcome do you think Ray Davis, deep down, is rooting for this weekend?

Boy, did the Yankees need that shutout win over the Cubs to end what has been an often times painful July on a relative high note. We’re just past the two-third mark of the season and a little over 50 hours away from the MLB Trade Deadline, meaning the Yankees will open August in a mad scramble to see which teams they can line up with to potentially acquire reinforcements for the stretch run. Before we get to that, let’s take one last look back at the month of July and the performance of the roster assembled by GM Brian Cashman.

Cashman polled at a 41-percent approval rating in both April and May as the Yankees were neck-and-neck with the Rays for the division lead, led by a pair of superstar offensive talents in Aaron Judge and Ben Rice. But then came the annual June swoon, and while they avoided it for a couple weeks, it did eventually strike with a vengeance. From June 20th through the end of the month, the Yankees won just two of eleven games including an embarrassing four-game sweep by the then-last-place Red Sox at Fenway, that sweep going on to catalyze Boston’s surge back into contention. By the end of the month, Cashman’s approval rating was polling at a minuscule nine percent.

Those losses continued to pile up to open July, the Yankees winning just two from seven to start the month. This saw them fall from 3.5 games up in the division on June 17th to five games behind the Rays on July 8th. They did manage to split a four-game set at Tampa — no small feat — and swept the Nationals in Washington to seemingly turn the month around. A series loss to the Dodgers brought them back to Earth, though they followed that up with series wins over Pirates and Phillies. I suspect the mood surrounding the fanbase would be a lot more positive had they not fumbled away the final two games of their four-game set against the White Sox, the bats going dormant and the mental errors piling up in those two extra-innings losses.

With the long-term injuries to Judge and Giancarlo Stanton and the additional injury to Cody Bellinger, the Yankees offense simply lacks the players outside of Rice who are capable of producing on a consistent basis. Indeed, Rice, Judge, Bellinger, and Paul Goldschmidt are the only lineup regulars producing at an above average level — two of those players are injured while the rest of the lineup has been worse than league average. There is a very real chance that neither Judge nor Bellinger are back until mid-September if for the regular season at all, so barring an unlikely spending spree at the Deadline, this is the group of bats relied upon to make it into the playoffs.

The dichotomy between the performance of the offense and the performance of the pitching staff has been quite stark in July and reveals how much the pitchers have carried the team. In July, Yankees hitters posted the highest strikeout rate, fifth-lowest walk rate, lowest OBP, second-lowest batting average, third-lowest wRC+, and eighth-lowest fWAR in baseball. Meanwhile, their pitching staff ranks second in strikeout rate, third in batting average allowed and WHIP, fourth in ERA, seventh in FIP, and fourth in fWAR in MLB. If not for the performance of their pitchers, I shudder to think of where the Yankees would be in the standings.

The problems on offense run so deep that it is hard to see an avenue to addressing their woes at the Trade Deadline. They’ve been linked to right-handed hitting catchers Ryan Jeffers and Hunter Goodman and are rumored to have checked in on shortstops CJ Abrams and Zach Neto. However, given their additional desire to upgrade the bullpen, you wonder whether Cashman has the appetite or the resources needed to make the multiple moves necessary to plug their numerous holes (or if some of these potential partners actually sell). Trading for just one of those guys is likely to cost a fortune, and I’m skeptical that the front office would empty out the farm system to the degree needed for substantive improvement.

That brings us to today’s task. Do you approve of the job Brian Cashman has done through the end of July? On one hand, the Yankees had a winning record in July, entered the month 3.5 games back of the Rays, and exit the month… 3.5 games back of the Rays, so they’ve managed to tread water despite the injuries and anemic offense. On the other hand, the Red Sox have come roaring back to be just a fw\ew games back of the Yankees for second, and you seriously question how much longer the pitching staff can continue to carry the offense. The polarizing GM certainly elicits stronger feelings than can be captured in a one-word response — you may feel a question such as the one being posed requires more nuance, greater elaboration, or a wider selection of options than just a “yes” or a “no,” however for the sake of this exercise, a binary question works best.

Note: This is the same poll that is currently appearing on the Feed, so if you’ve voted there, that should already be counted.

Injuries provide a reasonable cover especially when they are clustered so dramatically, and the A’s certainly had a double-triple-quadruple whammy when they lost Zack Gelof, Tyler Soderstrom, Jacob Wilson, Nick Kurtz, Joshua Kuroda-Grauer, and Shea Langeliers, in overlapping stretches in which often several have been out at the same time.

Without a doubt these injuries, which came on the heels of already losing Brent Rooker for the season and Denzel Clarke for most of one, have impacted the A’s ability to score runs and put their best defense out there. It’s also true that when the team was mostly healthy, they were hitting a lot at home and very little on the road. But the impact has been real.

Here’s the thing, though…the A’s big issue all season has been pitching. The team’s ERA of 5.34 beats out only the Colorado Rockies (5.50) and is a full .026 worse even than the team which ranks #28, the Washington Nationals.

Some of this is the Sutter Health Park effect, but on the road the A’s are squarely mediocre at best, ranking 16th in ERA, 18th in HR prevention, 14th in BB allowed. At home they are dead last in ERA (6.36, next closest is 5.82), HR allowed (108, next closest is 90), and BB allowed (250, next closest is 239).

And that’s where the injury excuse goes out the window. Health has not been the barrier for the A’s, flat out performance, and the development which breeds performance, are the clear culprit. I say this because really the A’s have had only one key injury to their entire pitching staff and that was losing Luis Severino after just 12 starts.

No doubt the A’s miss Severino who, for all his inconsistency, tended to get deep into games and whose 4.16 ERA would look pretty good right now. It’s also not any sort of excuse or explanation of struggle, to lose your biggest workhorse and top SP at least in name — in reality, if slotted into the rotation right now Severino would be behind both JT Ginn and Gage Jump in any realistic depth chart.

The A’s simply don’t have the market cornered on losing one of their aces and having to try to compete anyway. The Red Sox have been without Garrett Crochet much of the season, including July when they went 21-4. The Astros just moved into 1st place, albeit just a game over .500, having been with their ace Hunter Brown for all but 10 starts. Gerrit Cole has made only 12 starts for the Yankees, Carlos Rodon only 9.

Sure some of these teams have deep pockets and much more established talent, but the overarching point is that every team has to expect to lose at least as much as one key SP for a long stretch. Why haven’t the A’s been able to weather it at least well enough to win half their games — which, as it turns out, would leave them 0.5 game out of 1st place?

The problem has not been health, it’s been huge steps back by 2 pitchers who were expected to be important contributors: Jacob Lopez and Luis Morales. Jack Perkins, also gifted with plus stuff, has similarly been unable to harness it with enough control and command to thrive. Jeffrey Springs leads all of MLB in HRs allowed and has only been able to “adjust” to the tune of sporting a career high 47.1% fly ball rate.

In reality, with JT Ginn and Gage Jump thankfully progressing, even absent Severino the A’s had the pitching talent to contend in a weak AL West even as they were getting battered by position player injuries. Ginn, Jump, Morales, Perkins, and Lopez may not have the track record of a Mariners, Red Sox, or Yankees rotation, but in terms of their stuff that’s a rotation that could have emerged as a strength not a weakness.

Instead, Lopez continued to struggle to avoid missing his target by 2 feet and throwing an inordinate number of “accidental pitchouts” until he had to be optioned to AAA. He was excused as “having a funky delivery” without regard to the fact that you either need to be able to repeat and harness said delivery or you need to tweak it.

Morales may have “electric stuff” but he alternates missing the strike zone entirely with leaving pitches in the middle of the plate and he gets rocked hard — when he’s not issuing far too many free passes. So far, no one either in the minors or majors seems to have been able to help him throw the ball where he wants to with any frequency.

Perkins may have finally taken a big step forward in his last start, for which he was aptly punished by being yanked after just 69 pitches so the bullpen could immediately blow it for him and tag him with the loss. But like his lefty colleagues, he has long struggled to repeat his delivery and locate consistently leading to high pitch counts and low success rates.

So no, 2026 didn’t go south-and-then-some because of injuries or because of the hitting or fielding, even though all 3 took hits that feel like someone is putting a green and gold sweater on a black cat and rolling them under a ladder at midnight. The issue has been the inability of talented pitchers, who have been healthy, to develop and take steps forward instead of stalling or sliding back down the hill in reverse and into the ravine of irrelevance.

That’s how and why you go a sad 23-32 in May and June combined, only to follow it up with a 5-19 July. Even as the A’s get position players back faster than they lose them, they are going to remain stuck in quicksand until they figure out how to help their most talented young pitchers take steps forward. Let’s hope the recent glimpses from Lopez and Perkins are the beginning of a new beginning. We’ll know just a little bit more tonight when Perkins takes the mound.

The Yankees aren't just going to be buyers this deadline season.

According to multiple reports, the Yankees are trading reliever Camilo Doval to the Pittsburgh Pirates for two prospects. The deal is in the medical review stage.

Doval, who was acquired from the Giants at last year's deadline, has struggled in his brief time in pinstripes.

In 22 appearances last season with the Yankees, Doval pitched to a 4.82 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP, converting one save out of three attempts. 

This season, Doval started as the bridge to closer David Bednar and those struggles continued. In 44 games, Doval has pitched to a 4.54 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP. 

Doval is still owed around $2 million for the season, which the Pirates will assume $750,000 of it, according to the New York Post's Joel Sherman.

New York tried to get Doval back to his All-Star self, but others in the bullpen have stepped up. Brent Headrick, Fernando Cruz, Tim Hill and, most surprisingly, Paul Blackburn are pitching very well for the Yankees this season, whichmade Doval expendable. The Yankees will still look to add to the 'pen, but they now have a spot they can fill.

The Yankees are receiving catching prospect Omar Alfonzo and outfielder Luis Cruz back in the deal. Both will come from the Pirates' Dominican Summer League affiliate. 

Alfonzo is the Pirates' No. 17 prospect, according to MLB Pipeline. This season, he's played 60 games in Double-A, where he's slashed .239/.338/.420 with an OPS of .758. He has nine home runs, 10 doubles and 35 RBI. The 22-year-old is left-handed.

Cruz, 18, is still in the rookie development system. 

At the All-Star Break’s conclusion, I wrote on expectations, and their virtue as an exercise with this franchise towards a more hopeful future near and far. These Seattle Mariners, 3.0 games back of the AL West and the third Wild Card spot alike, have earned little and less belief. They’ve played poorly, wasted chances, and frittered opportunities to cleanse their palates. Much has rightly been made of the necessity for the core players to perform at or near the standards they’ve set for several years. But Seattle is giving up massive production on the fringes, and they’ve forced themselves into an uncomfortable, desperate position.

It is time for them to call up Michael Arroyo.

Seattle needs right-handed hitting, and with J.P. Crawford sidelined at least for several weeks, there is no easy solution at third base. Brendan Donovan returns on Tuesday to rotate around the field, but it’s hard to look at the lineup as constructed and see anywhere for him to play more frequently than the hot corner. Arroyo has played some third base, but it’s realistically not where he could be thrown in, although his defense is less egregious and more limited if asked to play second base or corner outfield. But they need his bat, because the Mariners need to take some risks, and rotating Weston Wilson, Victor Robles, Rob Refsnyder, Leo Rivas, and Mitch Garver through to take flaccid swing after flaccid swing is a Wile. E. Coyote kind of road that the Mariners have been slamming into the wall of all summer. The Rainiers’ roster is stocked with similar players who’ve struggled to set themselves apart this year and over many years, from Connor Joe to Patrick Wisdom to Stuart Fairchild, along with injured options like Ryan Bliss and Brennen Davis. With Luke Raley seemingly ailing, the M’s have to be more aggressive to rev up their offense before it’s too late.

Arroyo is a 21 year old Colombian ~utilityman whose profile made him the most-heralded hitting prospect from his burgeoning baseball nation since Colombia’s first and greatest star: SS Edgar Renteria. The 5’10, compact youngster has never been at the top of Seattle’s prospect list, but has hit his way into top-100 status nationally over the past couple seasons, with an approach I first wrote about in the winter before the 2024 season. Following a strong debut at age 18 with the Low-A Modesto Nuts, I said this of Arroyo:

Undersized but not underpowered, Arroyo was an excellent offensive force on a Nuts roster that boasted a quintet of potent teenage position players by season’s end. Arroyo’s .234/.389/.373 line belies a few factors: firstly a staggering 18 hit by pitches in just 265 California League plate appearances that both aided his OBP and sent Arroyo to the IL once and to the bench for a few days on multiple occasions. Still, his 9-16 line with a 2B, 3B, HR, and 4 BB in the playoffs and championship helped showcase the young Colombian’s advanced offensive toolkit. Arroyo will turn 19 in November, and already has a knack for elevating the ball with authority due to quick hands and strong wrists. He may be a 2B or 3B, but the bat will be putting him on the radar for a quick progression up the ladder.

Two and a half seasons later, every bit this remains the same, simply against better and better competition. Arroyo is now in Triple-A, where he’s spent nearly a month performing almost identically to each other level. His .300/.368/.479 line between Arkansas and Tacoma this year comes with just a 16.6% strikeout rate and 13 homers alongside 15 steals in 18 attempts. The righty-hitting youngster impressed me early with his ability to make swing decisions later than most hitters could manage, using those strong wrists to flick breaking balls into the outfield grass with acuity far beyond his years. It’s a skill that’s often slowest to develop, if it ever does, for young hitters, where as professionals they face consistently competent off-speed pitches for the first time in their lives.

And yet, that’s part of why Arroyo may never seem overmatched in the moment. His father Carlos was a Mariners prospect who made it up through then-Short Season-Everett, Low-A Wisconsin, and High-A Inland Empire (the latter once again being Seattle’s affiliate, now at Low-A). Alongside his elder brother, young Michael has been steeped in baseball throughout his upbringing in Cartagena, the baseball capital of Colombia. Michael’s pedigree and performance placed him on Colombia’s national teams at every level, starting in his youth and allowing him to represent his country against the best international talents all throughout his teenage years. In the World Baseball Classic, on a roster with established big league veterans like Gio Urshela, Harold Ramírez, and Donovan Solano, Arroyo set himself apart as the premier hitter, ensuring the club’s qualification for the 2026 WBC and then starring to ensure a performance that locked them in for the 2029 WBC as well.

It’s ample preamble to say Arroyo has yet to be overmatched. That’s not to say the big leagues won’t provide ample challenge for him. But his style of play is suited to a transition from the minors in a way some prospects are less clearly. Arroyo is exceptional at putting the bat on the ball when he swings at pitches in the zone, a 91.3% contact rate on such pitches since starting in Triple-A where the data is public, but I’ve watched enough Arroyo to know that’s a continuation of the same thing he’s been level by level. This is dramatically different than, say, Lazaro Montes, who is a player I don’t think merits a call-up, nor even Colt Emerson who was given an aggressive promotion this year as well. Arroyo’s style as a hitter works in the way many of the most successful recent debutants have. If any player in the M’s organization is going to improve Seattle’s offense right now, it is Arroyo.

This club has pushed itself out of the clear driver’s seat it had maintained for months to defend their division title. That forces Seattle’s hand. If they still see themselves as contenders, they have to get uncomfortable and take a swing with a young player who can pour fuel into the engines of the foundering Mariners.

Winning the last two World Series has cemented the Dodgers status in baseball history, but it’s really the culmination of a decade of excellence that was present even before the ring count swelled from one to three.

Consistency has been the hallmark for the Dodgers, who over the last 10 seasons have a .628 winning percentage, the equivalent of 102 wins over 162 games. They’ve kept up that pace for an entire decade, after previously topping out at 102 wins (twice) in their first 59 years in Los Angeles.

Since the start of the 2018 season, there have been 49 different regular season baseball months (including March/April and September/October), and in 46 of them they’ve outscored their opponents.

The three months the Dodgers were outscored:

• July 2024: 104 runs scored, 137 runs allowed
• July 2025: 91 runs scored, 114 runs allowed
• July 2026: 105 runs scored, 113 runs allowed

In addition, July 2024 (11-13) and July 2025 (10-14) are the Dodgers only losing months since March/April 2018 (12-16). Despite getting outscored this July, the Dodgers managed a winning record (13-11), thanks to winning their first four series after the All-Star break.

Now August is upon us, with 12 home games and 15 road games on the docket. The Dodgers finish off the interleague portion of the schedule this month, with two more games against the Red Sox this weekend followed by the Royals at Dodger Stadium (August 10-12) and facing the likely Skubal-less Tigers in Detroit (August 28-30).

Two National League West opponents await this month, at the Diamondbacks next weekend (August 7-9) then at the Rockies from August 17-19. Also in August, the Dodgers (69-41) face the other two division leaders jockeying for seeding in the NL playoffs, hosting the Brewers (68-41) from August 13-16 and visiting the Braves (65-45) in Atlanta from August 25-27.

The Dodgers get August off on the right foot, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the mound on Saturday. Left-hander Peyton Tolle starts for the Red Sox.

Saturday game info

• Teams: Dodgers vs. Red Sox
• Ballpark: Dodger Stadium
• Start time: 6:10 p.m.
• TV: SportsNet LA
• Radio: AM 570 (English), KTNQ 1020 AM (Spanish)

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The Detroit Tigers are -145 favorites against the Athletics this evening.

With their powerful offense set to face a pitcher who can't keep the ball down, my Tigers vs. A's predictions and MLB picks see value in backing the road team on Saturday, August 1.

Who will win Tigers vs A’s tonight: Detroit Tigers moneyline (-145)

Framber Valdez isn’t the pitcher he once was, but he is still elite at generating ground balls.His 52.7 GB% trails only Cristopher Sanchez among today’s starting pitchers.

That will help him sap power out of the Athletics offense, as will the absence of Shea Langeliers – who ranks a distant first on the team in wOBA and OPS against left-handed pitching.

Jack Perkins takes grounders to a different extreme. He ranks in the 11th percentile in GB%, which could be disastrous on a scorching hot day with the wind blowing out.

Back the Detroit Tigers to -155.

COVERS INTEL:The Tigers rank fourth in ISO and fifth in HR/FB vs. righties over the past month, giving them the perfect profile to exploit Perkins.

Tigers vs A’s Over/Under pick: Over 10.5 (-110)

Perkins can’t keep the ball on the ground at the best of times, and these conditions are extremely friendly for hitters.

The park factors and weather are projected to give a 34% boost to homers. Perkins is sporting a 7.34 ERA and allowing 2.28 HR/9 over six starts with a HR boost of 30% or more.

Valdez owns a 6.28 ERA and has surrendered 1.63 home runs per nine innings across eight starts against teams that rank among the Top 10 in OPS versus left-handed pitching. The Langeliers injury hurts, but the Athletics still have guys who can do damage.

Bet to -125.

Tigers vs A’s weather

Temperatures are expected to hover around 100 with winds blowing out. Clear boost to the offenses.

Tigers vs A’s odds

• Moneyline: Detroit -145 | Athletics +125
• Run line: Detroit -1.5 (+105) | Athletics +1.5 (-125)
• Over/Under: Over 10.5 (-115) | Under 10.5 (-105)

Tigers vs A’s trend

The Over is 4-0-1 in Detroit's last five games against sub .500 teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. A’s.

How to watch Tigers vs A’s and game info

Tigers vs A’s latest injuries

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With a comfortable win Friday, the Braves will have two chances to win the series against the Nationals ahead of the trade deadline Monday, with this first chance coming behind Reynaldo Lopez on the mound. Reynaldo has been serviceable since returning to the rotation but there are still weird inconsistencies in his arsenal and velocity and he hasn’t blown people away either. Fortunately his counterpart for the Nationals is a 37 year old Miles Mikolas, who boasts a 4.75 xFIP that is by far the most favorable among xFIP, FIP, ERA, and xERA.

Reynaldo has largely been a two pitch pitcher, with his fastball and slider that still boast solid traits even with diminished velocity (that velocity sure does help though). He mixes in a curve about 10% of the time and the ever so occasional changeup, but those two pitches are mostly what he uses. As long as he continues to be a serviceable rotation starter that would be entirely acceptable, however.

Mikolas has generally has a very Bryce-Elder-plus-type of career, with a few extra ticks of velocity on Bryce and a bit better command, but chronically low strikeout rates and more durability than value above replacement level. Now at 37 years old, his strikeouts have cratered down to around 1 strikeout every 2.0 innings and there’s only so much walk avoidance and a decent ground ball rate can carry a pitcher without strikeouts. This is a game that the Braves’ offense should be able to handle against a diminished pitcher, but its baseball and Reynaldo Lopez is not Chris Sale, so only the game can truly show us what will happen. Mikolas has a large arsenal and doesn’t walk hitters, but his pitches aren’t very good so the Braves’ hitters should hit them hard, far, and often. How’s that for tactical analysis?

Game Info

Game Time: Saturday, August 1st, 7:15 pm EDT

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

Watch: BravesVision

Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

There are few franchises in sports with more history than the Chicago Cubs and the New York Yankees. It is fitting that they will face off tonight in a national game showcased on MLB on Fox at 6:15 p.m. CT. As Al noted in his series preview, in their infinite wisdom Fox has once again decided that the booth for a Cubs game should include a former White Sox catcher who Michael Barrett once punched in the face and long time Cardinal pitcher, Adam Wainwright. At least Adam Amin is a Cubs fan.

But questionable announcing is why Baseball Bingo exists. The original impetus for this series was the ESPN booth that saw Matt Vasgersian rant about the audacity of bachelorette parties in the bleachers and Alex Rodriguez make the case that Javier Báez would be a better baseball player if he were more boring. The ESPN booth got much better over time, but they also no longer host Sunday Night Baseball. Enter, stage right, Baseball Bingo during the Cubs non-Marquee Sports Network games.

One fun fact to keep an ear out for, while the Yankees have 27 World Series Championships and the Cubs lag far behind with just three World Series wins in their 150-year history, this meeting of these crown jewel franchises occurs with the Cubs having won the more recent Commissioner’s Trophy. The panic in Yankee Fandom over not having won it all since 2009 is real and palpable.

As always, if you want a challenge make it a blackout game, I really don’t recommend making it a drinking game unless you’re trying to black out.

After pitching five innings in last night’s loss to the Marlins, Xzavion Curry was optioned to Triple-A Syracuse ahead of today’s game. In his place the Mets recalled New Jersey native Kevin Herget to take his spot in the bullpen.

In Curry’s five Mets appearances in 2026, he’s been worth 0.2 bWAR, pitching 11 innings to a 3.27 ERA. Last night, he took over for Kodai Senga with no one out in the fifth and allowed two runs on six hits while striking out two and not walking a batter across his five innings of work. Curry saved the bullpen for the last two games of the series and has been rewarded for his hard work by a trip back upstate. He would not have been available for a few days after his performance last night, and with the likely departure of a few additional bullpen pieces over the next few days, this does not appear to be Curry’s last time on the big league roster.

Kevin Herget is making his 2026 MLB debut for the Mets. Last season, he appeared in six games for the Mets and one for the Braves across 13 total innings. Herget has spent most of 2026 on the Injured List, and was just assigned to Syracuse four days ago.

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The Boston Red Sox move on from their most successful month in franchise history as they face the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chavez Ravine tonight. 

The market still isn't giving them much respect (+144 on the moneyline), but my MLB predictions are.

See why I fancy the visitors with my Red Sox vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, August 1.

Who will win Red Sox vs Dodgers tonight: Red Sox (+140)

Substantial plus money available on the hottest team in baseball? I'll bite.

The Boston Red Sox have won four consecutive Payton Tolle starts. The precocious southpaw has a 2.89 ERA and 0.96 WHIP on the road, and he can hold down a Los Angeles Dodgers lineup that has underperformed against left-handed pitchers this month (98 wRC+).

Boston's edge in the bullpen (2.50 FIP since the Break to L.A.'s 5.36) isn't accurately accounted for in the price. I'd play the underdog to +130. 

COVERS INTEL: Tolle finds success in large part due to his 90th percentile chase rate and superb 19.5% K-BB%. That'll play against the Dodgers, who have been prone to swing and miss since the Break (12.7% SwStr%). 

Red Sox vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-107)

It may be a low number, but it's that way for a reason. Sign me up for the Under with two elite starting pitchers on the bump. 

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been remarkably consistent, allowing no more than two earned runs in nine of his last 11 starts. Here's for yet another strong outing against a lineup with an 81 wRC+ against RHP in the last 14 days.

Boston has cashed the Under in six of Tolle's last nine starts due to his excellence. This team is 2-8 O/U in its last 10, and the low-scoring ways will continue, especially when the relief pitchers are hurling with unprecedented effectiveness (1.61 ERA since the Break). 

Red Sox vs Dodgers weather

It will be a warm and slightly humid evening in La La Land, with slight winds blowing out to centerfield. 

Red Sox vs Dodgers odds

• Moneyline: Red Sox +144 | Dodgers -150
• Run line: Red Sox +1.5 (-144) | Dodgers -1.5 (+138)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-104)

Red Sox vs Dodgers trend

The Red Sox have won seven straight games when priced as the underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Red Sox vs Dodgers and game info

Red Sox vs Dodgers latest injuries

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It's another busy slate across the big leagues today, and I've found value in my MLB player props.

Today's picks include Drew Rasmussen, Alex Bregman, and Jeremy Pena bringing the heat in H-Town. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, August 1.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Drew Rasmussen	Under 1.5 earned runs	-109
Alex Bregman	Over 0.5 singles	-110
Jeremy Pena	Over 0.5 runs	+115

Drew Rasmussen Under 1.5 earned runs (-109)

Tampa Bay Rays righty Drew Rasmussen has been in wonderful form. He owns a 1.94 xERA across his last two starts, and Rasmussen hasn't surrendered a single home run during that span. 

Rasmussen will face the Chicago White Sox tonight, who have a pedestrian 98 wRC+ over the last week. The veteran has also cashed the Under in earned runs allowed in two of his previous three appearances.  

The 31-year-old has also pitched well at home, posting a 2.81 FIP this season. He'll keep the White Sox at bay. 

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CHSN, Rays.TV

Alex Bregman Over 0.5 singles (-110)

Alex Bregman is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now. He's batting .407 over his last six games, and the Chicago Cubs star is in the midst of a five-game hitting streak. 

During that span, he has smacked 11 hits, and five of them have been singles. I would've targeted total bases for Bregman, but due to limited odds at DraftKings, I'm eyeing him for a base knock tonight against Max Fried. 

Bregman has historically swung it well against Fried as well, going 6-for-16 lifetime with five singles.

I'll play this pick up to -130. 

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: FOX

Jeremy Pena Over 0.5 runs (+115)

Jeremy Pena has been a production machine for the Houston Astros lately. He's hitting .393 over his last six games with eight runs. Pena also has a .414 OBP and .507 wOBA during that span. 

The shortstop has reached base safely in 12 straight games, and he's collected at least one run in nine of his last 10 appearances. Pena will face Jacob deGrom tonight, who has a 4.26 xERA over his last two starts. 

For what it's worth, Pena also has a good track record against him, although it's a small sample size. He's 4-for-13 lifetime. 

I'll play this pick down to -120. 

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: RSN, SCHN

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Last week, Ken Rosenthal estimated that the Mets would likely trade ‘around six’ players this trade deadline. This morning, he continued with the same logic, citing six as the over/under for the club.

“I recorded a video last week saying the over-under for the Mets was six trades. They easily could make more than that if they dug deeper into their roster. I don’t anticipate that happening, but imagine if they traded all of their players on expiring contracts, one of their catchers AND Francisco Lindor. Yikes.”

According to Bob Nightengale, never exactly the most reliable source, the Mets are telling teams that Lindor is off-limits “for now.” The hypothetical trade of Lindor has always been more speculative than rooted in any real reporting, and if the Mets are serious about contending in 2027, it seems awfully hard to do that without Lindor.

With A.J. Minter already off the table, there are a number of players on expiring contracts that the Mets seem most likely to trade, starting with left-handed reliever Brooks Raley. Starrer Freddy Peralta and outfielders Luis Robert Jr. and Tyrone Taylor, all on expiring contracts seem poised to be moved as well.

The other players that the Mets may unload depend on a few factors. Do they believe that Huascar Brazobán will ever have as much perceived value as he does right now? Are they willing to risk the stigma for future free agents by trading their newly extended backup catcher in Luis Torrens or their closer under contract for two more seasons in Devin Williams? Will they be blown away by an offer to Luke Weaver? Can they not work out an extension with Clay Holmes, and therefore move him as well?

It figures to be a busy 50 hours before the deadline.

We usually don’t do labs over the weekend, but with the trade deadline looming it seemed like a good time to put the Astros offense under the same microscope that we put the pitching. It is one thing to look at overall numbers and it is something else to break it down further to see exactly what we are looking at. The numbers you will see are up to the minute numbers through Friday night’s schallacking of the Texas Rangers.

We will also put one player under the microscope as well. It isn’t the most pleasant of news, but we have to face some pretty grim things before the deadline when we are deciding whether to add more pitching or whether to add more offense. First, let’s break down the overall offensive numbers the same way that we broke down the pitching.

More than one thing can be true at the same time. The Astros offense can both be better than last season and also not quite as good as it looked early in the season. The team had a collective .802 OPS in March and April. There was no way they were going to keep that up. All of the gains they made in April they nearly gave back in May. That is one of the reasons why they reached their low mark in May 20th. It was a perfect storm of historically bad pitching and then matched with historically bad offense.

The team has stabilized since then to be better than they were in 2025 but not quite as good as they were in March and April. If we agree that the hitting is a mirror image of the pitching then we would also surmise that we could look at March and April and compare it with May on to see what the Astros offense actually is. We could then compare that with the MLB average.

Just like with the pitching, we have to look at the offense in the way it is producing right now. The months of March and April were unique for both the hitters and the pitchers and they don’t accurately reflect who they currently are. Make no mistake, the offense is still okay when you factor in that May was an unusually bad month offensively. As we saw with the pitchers, a .720 OPS is the league average OPS. The Astros offense has been producing at that clip from May 1st forward.

A large part of the offense and the fluctuating numbers are the individual components. We have seen an uptick in July as Jeremy Pena and Isaac Paredes have gotten hot. However, there is one key figure that has fallen off since March and April. In order to soften the blow I will utilize the Player A and B test. However, this one is a trick question.

This is a trick question. Both players are Jose Altuve. The first is Jose Altuve from his disastrous 2020 season. The second is Altuve from May forward this season. Obviously, there are a different number of games involved, so we did most of the numbers projected out to 150 games played. Make no mistake, that 2020 season was a special kind of awful for Altuve and might be the main thing that keeps him from getting to 3000 hits if he does fall short.

However, the 2026 season has been nearly as rough in many ways. In particular, the lack of patience has been glaring and that is especially true considering how the year got started. When one major cog in the system falters then that can explain an overall drop in production for the lineup. Fortunately, Altuve’s play has been covered up by Pena and Paredes resurgence, but if we include what Christian Walker has done the last couple of months then we can see the push and pull factors that impact an offense.

Essentially, Jose Altuve has been the same player as Cam Smith since May 1st. Couple that with the overall production at catcher, left field, and center field since that time and you can see why the Astros offense sometimes sputters. On some days it looks like it did last night when the hitters at the bottom of the order come through. On other nights it can look bleak. The Astros can’t really replace Jose Altuve, but they can cover him up by improving elsewhere. The need for hitting might be more acute than the need for pitching. That especially depends on how everyone feels about Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesnescki.