The 2026 season is officially over. Overall, I’d call the season a success, although it sure doesn’t feel that way. If the Cardinals had the same exact W-L total, but went 15-9 instead of 9-15 in September, I feel like the vibes would be much different. From ownership’s standpoint, they are probably happy it went the way it did, because the attendance barely took a hit and I feel like if the season started poorly, it would have taken a bigger hit.
The way to view the season – maybe any season really – is to think about where the team was at the beginning of the season. If you were given the rough details of what happened in that season, would you be happy with how the season went? It is absolutely not a universal yes – I’ve seen the comments lately – but I feel like most fans would have been happy with this season.
It’s not about the win-loss record. I mean sure, I think solely focusing on win-loss record would still produce quite a few yeses – Any betting market or projection system did not have the Cardinals with 77 wins and a few of them were a lot less wins. Granted, some of us – me included – called out the projection systems that saw 70 wins or less, but nonetheless I don’t think any foresaw 77 wins.
Here is one way to look at it: the Cardinals made entirely future focused moves last offseason – they traded their of their best players and Nolan Arenado. It’s ironic actually. The Cardinals have spent a few seasons trying to be just good enough to make the playoffs but not making the playoffs and when they finally pivot, there’s a pretty decent chance they would have made the playoffs if they didn’t trade their best players.
Of course it doesn’t work like that. Nolan Arenado had a resurgence because he got away from Busch Stadium. I don’t think it happens here. Third base was so bad though that he would have been an improvement no matter what. And Brendan Donovan probably has to be healthier for this playoff hypothetical to truly work. And Willson Contreras was also likely hurt by Busch Stadium – Fenway seems like a great park for him. I’m comfortable saying Sonny Gray could have had his season here though.
But at best, they’re where the Phillies are right now, and we’re kind of trying to get away from that. The whole argument against that strategy is not that it won’t sometimes work, it’s that you’re counting on a team with the flimsiest of odds to win a World Series when that’s the entire goal. We want to be the Brewers, not a team barely making the playoffs. This year was the first step to trying to make that happen.
This season was originally meant to be about individual players and the development they took. For the players not expected to be a part of the future, their value is primarily in what trading them will bring the Cardinals. For players expected to be part of the future or hoped to be part of the future, the goal was that you could pencil them in for whatever position they play and then move onto the next problem.
In that respect, the Cardinals had a few questions answered. They don’t need to look for a 2B. JJ Wetherholt is their long-term second baseman, solidified with the extension he signed. His defensive performance gives him a higher floor than we imagined and his offensive performance portends great things despite a not great 2nd half. He had a low BABIP but a high xwOBA, and his minor league BABIPs were all fairly high. He doesn’t strike me as a Matt Carpenter type where he will just underperform his xwOBA because he’s not really a warning track kind of hitter.
They also successfully replaced Willson Contreras and we’ll see if there’s an incoming extension, but possibly the 1B of the future in Alec Burleson. He was legitimately half a win better purely because he played first base competently and maybe even great instead of attempting to catch flyballs in left field. You know how bad you have to be defensively when moving to first base increases your WAR. There is also significant value in Burleson showing 2025 was not a fluke. And the underlying offensive numbers may suggest Burleson hasn’t reached his peak – he had more power, walked more, and had a higher xwOBA than 2025.
Also I can’t believe it’s taken me this long to get to him, but Jordan Walker happened. Especially with my hypothetical posed at the beginning of this, I don’t think just about any of us expected his 2026 to happen. Remember when he had a terrible spring training? Yes, he has flaws in his game and superficially it looks like his defense has gotten better, but it really kind of hasn’t, but he finished his season with a 120 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR. Whether you’re in the minority in wanting to trade him or think he’s the future, either way you have to call him a huge success – even if you want to trade him, he suddenly has a lot more trade value.
That’s three positions that are more clear than at the beginning of the season. I’ll throw in two more, albeit a bit more unproven: Leonardo Bernal is the catcher of the future and Joshua Baez is the LF of the future. These were uncertainties and I might argue Baez is still kind of an uncertainty thanks to his plate discipline numbers, but it’s hard to argue with 7 homers and 7 doubles in 29 games. If you told me that Joshua Baez would have a good enough 2026 that all of us would feel comfortable penciling him in for 150 games in 2027, I would have taken it in a heartbeat.
Bernal was a bigger surprise. Sort of. Given his offensive history, I would not have predicted that he’d have zero trouble adjusting to the majors. He was always crazy young at each level, so there was a reason his offense was merely a little above average, but it’s a guarantee those type of prospects will adjust to MLB pitching. Bernal looks more like the catcher of the future than I think even the Cardinals expected when they initially called him up. Bernal has in the short term answered an important question: who to trade? Answer: not Bernal and I’m way more comfortable trading both Jimmy Crooks, Pedro Pages, and even Ivan Herrera because of Bernal.
So five positions were answered thanks to this season. Two of them were pretty good bets (Burleson, Wetherholt), one of them was more of a matter of which player (catcher), but the other two positions were massive, huge question marks. We didn’t know if Joshua Baez was going to be another Moises Gomez. Minor leaguers have career seasons much the same as ones who make the big leagues. And getting anything out of Walker would have been considered a success, much less an All-Star appearance and a 20-20 season.
Starting pitching wise, it mostly went well, but there was no equivalent to “oh wow we have a Gold Glover at second base???” Just a moderately successful season, but no new ace appeared. Dustin May delivered two huge prospects at the deadline, which was the entire reason he was signed. Andre Pallante completely bounced back to such an extent that I think people will get very frustrated with me if I end up writing an article suggesting he should get traded, and I would have had very little pushback if I proposed that 5 months ago. Kyle Leahy actually looks like he can start now, which I viewed as very unlikely.
And now the bad stuff. If you want to put on the rose-colored glasses, third base gave us what we asked for. We got an answer. Nolan Gorman is not it. He hadn’t gotten a chance to play at the position the Cardinals drafted him at and to his credit, he proved significantly better on defense than expected. But he’s still lost without a paddle on offense. However, this was not a huge disappointment. He was coming off back-to-back 87 wRC+ seasons. I think I had reached a point where even a true Gorman bounceback would have me wanting to trade him – because I simply did not trust him to repeat it. Maybe I’m too burned by Tyler O’Neill.
They did not find the 3B of the future, but there are at least candidates in the system, none greater than Jesus Baez. Baez hit 41 homers this season if you include the minor league playoffs and while I’m sure the homers are inflated by whatever is going on with the ball down there, he hit 14 last year. You can’t just write off his season because of the ball. The 21-year-old Deniel Ortiz also had a very quiet good year. Both of them should be in Memphis next season. Blaze Jordan went from a player left off the 40 man roster to a player who forced his way into 58 games, prematurely ended by an injury. My point is only that if the MLB situation at 3B went as poorly as possible, at least the minor league portion went significantly better than expected.
I don’t have a lot of positive things to say about CF – call me the Nathan Church skeptic – but even then the minor league developments were extremely positive. Tai Peete looks like a very shrewd pickup in return for Donovan and Josiah Ragsdale just had a 145 wRC+ across two levels and will likely be in Memphis next season (Alexaner Frias is too far away for this type of post). Yes, what people hoped from Church is a significant departure from what they got and in that sense, one could call this the one position that looks to be in a worse position than at the beginning of the season – but I never fully bought into Church so I’m not sure that holds true for me.
And of course Matthew Liberatore. I mean the best you can say is that he actually did raise his strikeout rate and by quite a bit honestly. That is a fact. After that it entirely depends on how the Cardinals perceive that kind of improvement for his future. Either it means he can find swing-and-miss stuff, but can’t be a starting pitcher – certainly the majority opinion for the fanbase. Or he’s very close, but needs to clean stuff up. As a Liberatore apologist, I wouldn’t discount the second possibility – we literally just experienced this with Andre Pallante. But I don’t actually know where the Cardinals stand and if the bullpen is his future, I think it would improve the bullpen instantly.
As this is an overall positive post, I won’t spend too much time on the bullpen. I’m not going to put lipstick on a pig. But bullpen is a short-term problem. It is always a short term problem. You can’t trust it even if it’s good. In the context of looking forward, this happens to be a good thing coming off a very poor season. There’s nowhere to go but up. If your second baseman is below average one season, if you run with the same guy the next season, you can be pretty sure it won’t go well. If your bullpen is below average one season, you have no idea how they will perform the next season. The Cardinals will try different pitchers and the pitchers they have might see a random jump – maybe Cade Winquest is the closer next season. Amidst all the advanced analytics we have, bullpen is still as unpredictable as ever.
All in all, whatever doubts I have about how this upcoming offseason will go – they should absolutely capitalize on the excitement and goodwill they have and actually make moves to improve the 2027 team and not just future teams – at this very moment, I am happy with how the season went and the direction the Cardinals are going in.
