The Chicago Cubs are -145 favorites to get revenge following a 5-2 loss in the series opener.
Given Taj Bradley's incredible recent form, my Twins vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks see value in backing the road team at a healthy plus-money price on Saturday, July 18.
Who will win Twins vs Cubs today: Twins moneyline (+125)
Matthew Boyd posted a 2.86 ERA over the past month despite a 4.82 xFIP and 5.59 xERA – strong signals his numbers could soon take a turn for the worst.
He has had a more difficult time against right-handed bats and, including switch-hitters, the Minnesota Twins could throw as many as seven at him on Saturday afternoon.
Taj Bradleyowns a 2.32 ERA the past month with much better indicators to boot (2.49 xERA, 3.25 xFIP).
He should keep the Chicago Cubs in check, positioning the Twins to pull off the upset.
Bradley is a high strikeout pitcher who has held opponents to a 33% hard hit rate over his last five starts. That has helped him limit the longballs, allowing just 1.16 per nine innings.
We shouldn’t see much power in this game, which will make it difficult for both teams to score in bulk and push this game Over.
I like the Under and would play it to -120.
Todd Cordell's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 59-47, +1.60 units
Over/Under bets: 57-44-5, +5.49 units
Twins vs Cubs weather
Temperatures are expected in the mid 80s with winds blowing east. Boost to the offenses.
Twins vs Cubs odds
Moneyline: Minnesota +125 | Chicago -145
Run line: Minnesota +1.5 (-160) | Chicago -1.5 (+140)
Over/Under: Over 9.0 (-110) | Under 9.0 (-110)
Twins vs Cubs trend
Minnesota has hit the moneyline in 11 of the last 15 away games (+9.10 units, 59% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Cubs.
How to watch Twins vs Cubs and game info
Location
Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Date
Saturday, July 18, 2026
First pitch
2:20 p.m. ET
TV
Twins.TV, MARQ
Twins starting pitcher
Taj Bradley (9-3, 3.59 ERA)
Cubs starting pitcher
Matthew Boyd (5-1, 4.50 ERA)
Twins vs Cubs latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Miguel Vargas is one of the league's hottest hitters against right-handed pitchers, and he draws a struggling righty this afternoon in Shane Bieber.
With such an advantageous matchup, Vargas headlines my three MLB player props and MLB picks for Saturday, July 18.
Best MLB player props today
Player
Pick
Odds
Miguel Vargas
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs
-132
Samuel Basallo
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs
+101
Luis Garcia Jr
Over 1.5 total bases
-107
Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-132)
Things have not gone well for Shane Bieber. He is sporting a 7.64 ERA and 2.04 WHIP through just under 18 innings of work. He has also allowed a ton of power, conceding seven homers.
He has struggled even more so against right-handed hitters, allowing an absurd .419 average to date.
J.T. Ginn has conceded a .268 average against left-handed hitters over his last 10 starts, which is over .100 points higher than what he held righties to during the same stretch.
Garcia also owns ISOs of .320 or higher against three of Ginn’s four most-used pitches.
This is a great spot to deal damage.
Bet to -125.
Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
Where to watch: NATS, NBCSCA
Todd Cordell's 2026 Transparency Record
Prop picks: 5-4, +0.55 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - JULY 17: Tyler Tolbert of the Kansas City Royals, left, is tagged out at home by Luis Campusano, right, of the San Diego Padres during the eighth inning at Kauffman Stadium on July 17, 2026 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Reed Hoffmann/Getty Images) | Getty Images
San Diego Padres closer Mason Miller threw 16 pitches in the bottom of the ninth inning. He opened the inning allowing a single to Isaac Collins and a double to Carter Jensen. Miller issued an intentional walk to Bobby Witt Jr. to load the bases with no outs for the Kansas City Royals. The All-Star reliever then recorded three consecutive strikeouts to end the Kansas City threat and the inning to send the game to extra-innings.
San Diego scored three runs in the top of the 10th inning to take what looked to be a comfortable 6-3 lead. However, instead of Miller returning to the mound for the bottom of the 10th inning, Kyle Hart took the mound for the Padres. The left-hander was looking to secure the win and earn his first MLB save; however he allowed four runs to score on four singles and a groundout, and the Padres opened the second half of the season with a 7-6 extra-inning loss at Kaufman Stadium. It was a heartbreaking result for a team with its season on the line and could have a disastrous effect if San Diego cannot bounce back in the second game of the series today.
The Padres were on an emotional roller coaster throughout the final innings of the game. San Diego was trailing 3-2 with two outs in the top of the ninth inning. It appeared the game was all but over before Ty France hit a solo home run to tie the game at 3-3. After the Houdini act by Miller in the bottom of the ninth and the offense scoring three runs in the top of the 10th it appeared the Padres would push their win streak to three games, but that was not the case.
Michael King started the game on the mound for San Diego and he labored through five innings. He allowed just one run, which came on a solo home run by Lane Thomas, but he used 97 pitches to get through the outing. King limited Kansas City to four hits and issued two walks before turning the game over to the bullpen.
The Padres offense scored six runs with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Miguel Andujar each having three-hit games. Xander Bogaerts and France were the only other players in the San Diego lineup to record hits.
The Padres will try to get back to .500 with a win when they take on the Royals today at 1:10 p.m.
Padres News:
A lot of questions surrounding the Padres will be answered over the next 16 games. Even more will be answered throughout the second half of the season. Thomas Conroy of Gaslamp Ball gives readers some insight as to what they can expect to see from San Diego as play resumes following the All-Star break.
Freddy Fermin was activated off the IL and with Luis Campusano back with the big-league club, Rodolfo Duran was sent back to the minors.
Trevor Rogers has really turned a corner over the last month. The left-hander owns a 3.02 FIP over his last four outings, and has allowed Under 2.5 earned runs in five straight appearances.
Across his last two starts, the southpaw has given up just one earned run.
However, one hitter who could have some success against him tonight is Yordan Alvarez. The slugger has a .286 average against left-handed hurlers, and he's cashed the Over in total bases in four of his previous five contests.
Alvarez also owns a .400 ISO over the last two weeks.
See full analysis of this game in our Orioles vs. Astros predictions.
Cardinals at Diamondbacks SGP: Pfaadt Carves Up Struggling Cards
Brandon Pfaadt is dominating lately for the Arizona Diamondbacks, compiling a phenomenal 2.50 xERA across his last four outings while allowing just 0.57 BB/9 and HR/9.
Pfaadt hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in a single outing since May 17, and tonight's matchup is a clear opportunity to keep dealing. The St. Louis Cardinals are in horrible offensive shape, posting a 64 wRC+ over their last 11 games.
Gabriel Moreno is one of Arizona's hottest hitters at the moment, batting .405 over his last 10 contests. The catcher has three multi-hit games in his previous four games, and Dustin May is vulnerable to hard contact right now, allowing a 42.9% hard-hit rate over the last month.
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Cardinals.TV, DBacks.TV
See full analysis of this game in our Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks predictions.
Giants at Mariners SGP: High-Scoring Affair in Seattle
The Over has appeal tonight in Seattle. Logan Webb enters in poor form, posting a 4.82 FIP over his last four outings, and he has allowed 12 earned runs across his previous two starts.
Bryan Woo has a 4.05 xERA over the last month, which is manageable, but he has allowed at least two earned runs in back-to-back outings. With the total sitting at just seven, scoring could build before the bullpens fully factor in.
Bryce Eldridgehas scored six runs in his last 10 contests, including three straight, and San Francisco owns an 119 wRC+ over the last two weeks. Josh Naylor is also riding a nine-game hitting streak.
Time: 8:08 p.m. ET
Where to watch: FOX
See full analysis of this game in our Giants vs. Mariners predictions.
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
SGP picks: 4-18, -2.66 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
The Detroit Tigers came charging out of the All-Star break with a 2-1 win over the Los Angeles Angels in Anaheim on Saturday night. Troy Melton and Keider Montero combined to hold the opponent to just one run while a ninth-inning rally that saw Hao-Yu Lee plate the two winning runs gave the visitors all they needed to prevail.
On Saturday night, the two teams meet again with left-hander Tarik Skubal taking the mound for AJ Hinch’s squad. The 29-year-old has looked strong over his last three starts heading into the break, posting a 2.25 ERA and 2.79 FIP stretching across 16 innings, recording 23 strikeouts against just three walks.
Meanwhile, the Angels have right-hander Grayson Rodriguez climbing the hill looking to even up the three-game series. The 26-year-old began the season on the injured list with right shoulder inflammation and missed some time with lower back tightness before returning just ahead of the All-Star break.
In that game against the Minnesota Twins in Minneapolis before the break, Rodriguez lasted 5 1/3 frames, surrendering three runs on six hits and a walk, failing to strike out a batter while throwing a wild pitch. He managed to earn his third win of the season for his efforts that day.
The Tigers faced Rodriguez earlier this season on May 28 in Detroit, where he held the Olde English D to just one run on two hits (including a solo home run) and two walks while striking out five over five frames. The Angels prevailed, 7-1, giving him his second win of the 2026 campaign.
Here is a look at how the two pitchers match up on Saturday night.
Detroit Tigers (45-52) vs. Los Angeles Angels (38-60)
Time (ET): 10:07 p.m. Place: Angel Stadium, Anaheim, California SB Nation Site: N/A Media: Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network
Game 98: LHP Tarik Skubal (5-4, 3.06 ERA) vs. RHP Grayson Rodriguez (3-2, 7.55 ERA)
The Mets pick up their three-game series against the Phillies in Philadelphia after the day off on Saturday at 4:05 p.m. on SNY.
Mets Notes
Francisco Alvarezbelted two home runs in the series-opening win, and in his last eight games has 10 hits in 28 at-bats with a 1.009 OPS. The catcher now has his season slash line up to .259/.325/.448 (113 OPS+, 116 wRC+)
Sean Manaea climbs the hill after his best start in a long while: 7.0 innings, three runs (two earned) on six hits and one walk with two strikeouts last time out. In his last start in Philly last month, he allowed three runs (two earned) in 5.1 innings of a Mets win
The Phillies are starting a lefty of their own in Jesus Luzardo, who posted a 3.51 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in 110.1 innings in his All-Star first half. In his start against the Mets in late June, he allowed one run on four hits over 5.0 innings
Today's Lineups
METS
PHILLIES
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What channel is SNY?
Check your TV or streaming provider's website or channel finder to find your local listings.
How can I stream the game?
The way to stream SNY games is via the MLB App or MLB.tv.
Open “MLB” and tap on “Subscriber Login” for Apple Devices or “Sign in with MLB.com” for Android Devices.
Type in your MLB.com credentials and tap “Log In.”
To access live or on-demand content, tap on the "Watch" tab from the bottom navigation bar. Select the "Games" sub-tab to see a listing of available games. You can scroll to previous dates using the left and right arrows. Tap on a game to select from the game feeds available.
For more information on how to stream Mets games on SNY, please click here.
PORT ST. LUCIE, FLORIDA - MARCH 19, 2026: Mitch Voit #55 of the New York Mets throws to first base during the fourth inning of a spring training Spring Breakout game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Clover Park on March 19, 2026 in Port St. Lucie, Florida. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
Never seen this before – Syracuse had three homers and three errors on the night from the same three players. Cool little oddity. Luis Robert also played a full game in center as he nears a major league return (and likely trade). Unfortunately, Joey Gerber gave up two runs in the ninth that proved to be the difference.
Mitch Voit’s surge continues. Three more hits, three more steals, and suddenly his OPS is approaching 800. Couple that with a shutout pitching performance from four Cyclones and you get a real nice start to the second half.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - JULY 17: Kyle Higashioka #11 of the Texas Rangers pitches during the eighth inning against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on July 17, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Braves 15, Rangers 1
Starting off the second half with a big ol’ trash can game is not a great omen.
Is it better or worse than ending the first half with a trash can game, though?
Starting the second half this way is a big let down, but then you have another game the next day. We move on.
Ending the first half with this sort of clunker would leave the funk lingering for the four days where the Rangers don’t play. It would mean a miasma of disaster hanging over everyone during the break.
The good news is that the Mariners and Astros both lost.
The Mariners got shut out by the San Francisco Giants, 7-0, and only had two hits.
The Giants are one of the worst teams in baseball. They’ve been terrible all season. The hiring of Tony Vitello, a college coach who had never worked for a professional franchise before, has not worked out at all.
So at least the Rangers got stomped by an actual good team, a first place team with the third best record in the majors right now.
And at least the Rangers are still 1.5 games up in the American League West.
Houston lost 3-2 to the Orioles, which means that they are still 3 games back in the division.
Now that I look at it, every American League West team lost.
The Angels, who currently have the worst record in baseball, lost in especially dispiriting fashion. Reid Detmers gave them six shutout innings. They took a 1-0 lead into the ninth.
And their closer, our old friend Kirby Yates, hit a batter in the ninth, walked a batter in the ninth, and gave up a two run double to Hao-Yu Lee. It ended up being a 2-1 loss for Anaheim.
The Northern California A’s, meanwhile, got curbstomped by the Washington Nationals, 23-4.
Someone named Yunior Tur made his major league debut for the A’s and gave up 6 runs and seven hits. Someone else named Brady Basso threw a scoreless inning and lowered his ERA on the season to 10.13.
Carlos Cortes, that dude who beat up on the Rangers pitching earlier this year, pitched the ninth and gave up five runs. At least Kyle Higashioka, the Rangers’ position player who pitched, only gave up three runs.
The Nationals also used a position player to pitch the ninth, in the rare instance of a team bringing in a position player with a lead. Jorbit Vivas allowed just two runs, meaning he did better than Higashioka, I guess.
And only one of Vivas’s two runs allowed was earned, because Nasim Nunez made an error behind him that put a runner on who ended up scoring.
Nasim Nunez is leading the majors in stolen bases, with 35. He’s only been thrown out 4 times.
Nunez has a fascinating .247/.330/.295 slash line on the year. He has 59 singles, four doubles, three triples and a homer.
The paltry number of extra base hits is kind of remarkable because you’d think, as fast as he is, he’d leg out more than four doubles by this point in the season.
You are probably thinking to yourself, Blogamemnon, while I acknowledge that these are thoughts that you are expressing, they are not on this 15-1 Rangers loss, or, really, any 15-1 Rangers loss.
And I would have to concede that point. But is that really a bad thing?
This is only the fourth 15-1 loss in team history. The last time the Rangers lost 15-1 was in September 2021, a terrible season, and we were actively trying to avoid paying attention to the team by that point in the very bad season.
Here’s who pitched for the Rangers in that game: Spencer Howard, Wes Benjamin, A.J. ALexy, Hyeon-jong Yang, and Charlie Culberson.
I had completely forgotten about Hyeon-jong Yang.
The Rangers also lost 15-1 in 1973, to the White Sox, and in 1993, to the Red Sox.
That 1993 game against Boston is actually an important historical footnote. Jose Canseco pitched the ninth inning for the Rangers, allowed three runs, and tore his UCL. He missed a stretch of games, returned and tried to play for a couple of weeks, but then ultimately was shut down for the year due to Tommy John surgery.
It was also the next to last game that Robb Nen pitched for the Rangers. He gave up five runs. Not long after he was traded to the Marlins, along with Kurt Miller, for Cris Carpenter, in one of the all time bad trades in Rangers history.
At least Emiliano Teodo got to make his major league debut in this game.
He wasn’t good, and isn’t ready to be in the majors right now, but he’s got a major league line now, even if it features an 18.00 ERA.
Elias Diaz had a 106.0 mph single. Nicky Lopez had a 101.0 mph single. Josh Jung had a 100.0 mph fly out.
Cal Quantrill hit 95.6 mph with his sinker, averaging 93.8 mph. Emiliano Teodo’s sinker touched 101.9 mph. Gavin Collyer topped out at 97.7 mph with his fastball. Ben Peoples reached 96.9 mph with his fastball. Kyle Higashioka threw 20 eephuses and two fastballs, with the fastball topping out at 61.9 mph.
I thought yesterday was the New York Yankees' best chance to get a win in this series, and without it, I see them at risk of being swept.
Weathers, who allows a 55.6% hard hit rate that ranks in the bottom 30 percent of baseball, is a real issue against the best offense in baseball.
LA hurler Emmet Sheehan is not risk-free, but his 30% whiff rate gives them a pretty direct route against a Yankees lineup that has the third-highest rate of such stats in the sport.
In a game that's a near pick'em, I'd play the Dodgers down to -133.
I’m playing the Over because both starters have pitch-shape issues that can turn into home-run damage. Weathers’ fastball has been a big issue, and "he's facing the Dodgers" is simply enough analysis to tell you why that presents troubles here.
Sheehan also gives New York a path. His heater has also had some issues. It's allowed a .550 xSLG, and his 65.0% air-ball rate, which makes him vulnerable against teams that can get the ball elevated.
The Yankees are inconsistent without their full lineup, but they still carry enough barrel power at Yankee Stadium to help clear nine.
Chris Hatfield's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 39-35, +6.47 units
Over/Under bets: 43-33, +12.32 units
Dodgers vs Yankees weather
Thunderstorms are expected at the start of tonight's ballgame. It will be hot and humid, with winds blowing out to center field.
Dodgers vs Yankees odds
Moneyline: Dodgers -110 | Yankees -110
Run line: Dodgers -1.5 | Yankees +1.5
Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Dodgers vs Yankees trend
The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 50 away games (+9.50 Units / 11% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs Yankees
How to watch Dodgers vs Yankees and game info
Location
Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Date
Saturday, July 18, 2026
First pitch
8:08 p.m. ET
TV
FOX
Dodgers starting pitcher
Emmet Sheehan (4-6, 4.81 ERA)
Yankees starting pitcher
Ryan Weathers (3-7, 4.15 ERA)
Dodgers vs Yankees latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
BALTIMORE, MD - JULY 11: Coby Mayo #16 of the Baltimore Orioles high fives teammates in the dugout after hitting a solo home run in the fifth inning during the game between the Kansas City Royals and the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Saturday, July 11, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Alyssa Piazza/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Orioles fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.
One of the Orioles storylines as the second half begins is that they’re going to have to find a way to replace the production they were getting from their surprisingly good starting third baseman, Blaze Alexander. The most optimistic timeline for his return might be somewhere around Labor Day. That’s a lot of games to get through without a solid defender and one of the team’s better hitters at the hot corner.
In this week’s survey, I asked Orioles fans how the team should go about trying to fill in for Alexander. How people feel about that one probably has a lot to do with whether they’re willing to give another chance for Coby Mayo to keep the job. Here’s how the results came out on this week’s survey:
That’s a sizable plurality willing to give Mayo the first shot here, though not an outright majority. I’m on Team Mayo, which isn’t to say I think he’s guaranteed to work out. This is an opportunity to find out if he can still be something after all, even if he’s disappointed so far across multiple chances in multiple seasons. Will he be able to adjust? Maybe we’re going to find out, as Mayo was in as the starter for the first game coming out of the break.
The second choice might get some play as well. The Orioles pulled infielder Christian Encarnacion-Strand up from the minors as the corresponding roster move for Alexander going on the injured list. He is notionally capable of playing third base, and demonstrated in a 63-game sample three years ago that he can hit major league pitching. He has not demonstrated it since. We may find out more about this over the next six weeks or so too.
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - JULY 04: Orion Kerkering #50 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws against the Kansas City Royals in the eighth inning at Kauffman Stadium on July 04, 2026 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Listen, we all knew that the Phillies had to get another reliever at the trade deadline. Somehow, some way, they had to make sure that the bullpen was fortified with someone else that could be used for high leverage situations since what they had wasn’t cutting it.
Then Brad Keller got hurt.
Now, it looks like they might need more than one reliever if they plan on getting someone from the outside. However, they also have other needs that might have to be addressed from outside of the organization. That makes our question of the day a little more complex.
Does the injury to Keller change your opinion on how the Phillies should be attacking this trade deadline?
Maybe you had another outfielder atop your wishlist when it came to spending prospect capital in a deal. Maybe you weren’t too sure of how the rotation would hold up even these last two months of the regular season. If they need more than one reliever, should they be focusing everything they have on that spot of the roster and let the other ones play out?
ST LOUIS, MISSOURI - JUNE 15: Dustin May #3 of the St. Louis Cardinals celebrates after recording the final out of the game against the San Diego Padres at Busch Stadium on June 15, 2026 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Do the Cardinals have enough pitching to make a deep playoff run if they make it to the postseason? Most people, myself included, would say “no” without much hesitation. Even the most optimistic fans will quickly dismiss the idea that the Cards could make noise in October if they snag a wild card spot. Sure, this team is fun, but they are don’t have the pitching necessary to win a playoff series, let alone the three or four necessary to be crowned champions of the world! But… is this actually true? Are the Cardinals uniquely incapable of getting hot in the playoffs because of their lack of dominant pitching? If so, what does the pitching staff look like that gives them a real fighting chance?
Spoiler alert, I am not going to definitively answer these questions today, but I am going to try to provide a little anecdotal color to try to bring this image of a “World Series-caliber pitching staff” into a bit more focus.
To do this, I am going to look at each of the eight pitching staffs from the past four World Series participants and see how the Cards stack up. I am using just the last four seasons because that captures the entirety of the 12-team playoff era. Yes, it is a small sample size, but it will at least point us in the right direction.
Disclaimer: I am including the Cardinal comparisons throughout this article for reference (and for fun!). I am not under the illusion that the Cardinals are proper World Series contenders this season.
What does a World Series-caliber pitching staff look like? First, here are the team regular-season hitter and pitcher FanGraphs WAR totals and league (as in AL or NL, not MLB) rank for the last eight World Series teams. The winner is bolded and the Cardinals’ current pace is added for reference.
I am going to focus on the teams pitching staffs, but I did want to include the position player WAR for reference. It is interesting that the last eight league winners have largely been more impressive on the position player side of things with an average league rank of third compared to sixth on the pitching side.
It is remarkable how similar the Cardinals are to the 2023 Diamondbacks in aggregate WAR pace. The big difference: the Diamondbacks had peak Zac Gallen to fuel their push. The Cardinals have had one ace-type season from a starting pitcher (Jack Flaherty in 2019) since Adam Wainwright exited his prime.
Once the postseason rolls around, teams rely heavily on their best few pitchers and top bullpen arms.
Here is some data comparing the 2022-2025 regular-season pitcher utilization to the postseason utilization.
The pitcher rank for this table is based on innings pitched rather than a rate stat. This is not perfect for ranking the team’s best pitchers in the regular season, but it is a very good proxy, particularly in the postseason.
The biggest differences in utilization are at the top and bottom of the spectrum. Team’s top two pitchers threw 24% of regular-season innings combined but that total jumped all the way to 38% in the playoffs. At the bottom of the depth chart, pitchers ranked below 11 threw a full quarter of regular-season innings but only 4% of postseason innings.
So, what is the quality of these thoroughbreds that successfully led their teams to the pennant?
Pitcher #1
The average World Series leader in innings pitched has given his team 31 innings throughout the postseason. This Frankenstein ace had an average regular-season WAR of 3.8 with 9.4 strikeouts per nine. Here is how the Cardinals’ presumptive Game 1 starter Dustin May lines up.
If you buy into May’s FIP over his ERA, he is right there with this group of aces in terms of his current pace. The strikeouts lag a bit. Of course, May has less of a track record than any of these pitchers, so it remains to be seen if he can keep this up for the rest of the year, but his work to date is absolutely worthy of starting Game 1 or 2 of a playoff series.
Pitcher #2
Game 2 is where things get a little tricky. The second-most-used pitcher is expected to give his team 25 postseason innings. In this fantasy postseason, I am giving the ball to Andre Pallante. Unfortunately, our playoff opponents’ No. 2 starters are arguably even better than the No. 1s with lower ERAs and FIPs, and more strikeouts.
Pitcher #3
Game 3, I will turn to Michael McGreevy. Shockingly, we might have a fighting chance as McGreevy has a much better ERA than his average opponent with a comparable FIP. Interestingly, we already see relievers enter the fray as their team’s most used pitchers with Jose Leclerc and Luke Weaver. This group of pitchers kicked in 16 postseason innings, on average.
Pitcher #4
As we move down to fourth on the depth chart, we are squarely in reliever territory with the exception of Shohei Ohtani and Cristian Javier. This group of pitchers gave their teams an average of 14 playoff innings. We will turn to Riley O’Brien as our top comp.
Once again we are surprisingly competitive, if you don’t mind the lower strikeout rate. At this point, we have accounted for 58% of the innings needed to cover our playoff run, so I will cut out the detailed player stats. The remaining innings start to spread out a bit more. The Cardinals may actually set up decently here if you have confidence that Liberatore and Leahy could return to the bullpen and pitch pitch more effectively out of the bullpen. Teams’ fifth through seventh most-used playoff pitchers each need to cover around ten innings throughout the postseason. Here is how my presumptive picks would line up.
Pitcher #5
Pitcher #6
Pitcher #7
I came out of this review more optimistic than I expected. There are two obvious concerns: a glaring hole at the No. 2 spot in the rotation and the lack of strikeouts across the board is depressing. Still, if you buy into the sustainability of Dustin May’s underlying metrics, this staff has a plausible path to patching the innings needed to cover a playoff run. This is all before we consider Gastelum or any of the Memphis pitchers emerging as leverage arms down the stretch.
None of this changes the fact that the Cardinals have an uphill battle to make the playoffs and are likely to trade May at the deadline. The ultimate goal is to win a World Series and the betting markets and projection systems give the Cardinals only a 1% chance of pulling it off. That honestly feels like a fair number, so I am in no way arguing that the Cardinals should push chips in for this season… But if they make it in, I think the pitching could be enough to keep things interesting.
So after 18 pitches, the Cubs had the lead and two runners on with nobody out. Big inning possible, right?
Well… no. Alex Bregman, who ended the first half so well, struck out. Then Ian Happ hit into a double play. Inning over, and already 0-for-2 with RISP. (That would become a theme on this night.)
The Cubs had another good scoring chance in the second. Nico Hoerner led off with a single and Michael Conforto followed with another hit. But again a strikeout (Carson Kelly) and double play (Dansby Swanson) would end the inning. That’s 0-for-4 with RISP if you’re keeping track.
There was a brief delay while Cubs staff tended to Swanson, who stayed in the game. Did this delay bother Colin Rea? He did warm up during the delay, but then allowed a single to Trevor Larnach that tied the game, followed by the pitch alluded to in the headline, a sweeper to Ryan Jeffers. Jeffers hit the ball into the bleachers for a three-run homer that made it 4-1 Twins.
The Cubs got another runner to scoring position in the bottom of the fourth. With two out, Nico had his second hit of the game and went to second on a throwing error. Conforto popped up to end the inning, 0-for-5 with RISP.
Rea settled down after the Jeffers homer and allowed just one further baserunner from the fourth through the sixth. It wasn’t that bad an outing, but I’m sure Rea would love to have that pitch back. From BCB’s JohnW53:
Because one of the four runs he allowed was unearned, Colin Rea earned a quality start.
It was his fourth, in 16 starts, tying him with Edward Cabrera and Jameson Taillon for second most on the Cubs, behind Shota Imanaga’s seven.
Ben Brown has three; Javier Assad and Matthew Boyd, two; and Cade Horton, one, for a total of 27.
The Angels began Friday with 27, which was 23rd most among the 30 teams. The Dodgers had 54; the Red Sox, 45; the Mariners, 44; and the Phillies, 43. No other team had more than 39.
The Angels moved ahead of the Cubs Friday with a very good start from Reid Detmers, who held the Tigers scoreless for six innings with seven strikeouts. I still would love to see the Cubs trade for Detmers before the deadline. (The Tigers won the game off the Angels bullpen.)
Anyway, the Cubs did put another run on the board in the sixth. Seiya Suzuki led off the inning with a double and advanced to third on a ground out. Alex Bregman then walked and while Ian Happ was at bat, Suzuki scored on this wild pitch [VIDEO].
Bregman held at first on that wild pitch but advanced to second when Happ singled. With one out there were more scoring chances but… Hoerner hit into a force play and Conforto flied to center. That’s two more unsuccessful at-bats with RISP.
Drew Pomeranz entered to throw the seventh and walked the first two hitters he faced. A pinch-hit single by Ryan Kreidler made it 5-2. I’m thinking the Pomeranz Cubs Reunion Tour might not have too many gigs left.
The Cubs bats were mostly silent the rest of the way. The only baserunner over the last three innings was a leadoff walk by Happ in the ninth. In the eighth, Suzuki sent a ball to deep left-center, and a hat tip to Twins center fielder Luke Keaschall for this PCA-like sliding catch [VIDEO].
So: Lack of offense, lack of hitting with RISP (1-for-10 on the night) and the one pitch thrown for a three-run homer was what doomed this game. One good thing: Hoerner’s two hits. He hadn’t had two hits in a game since June 28. Hopefully this gets him going.
The Brewers won Friday so the Cubs now trail by six games in the NL Central. The Cubs maintained their lead for the first wild card spot over the Phillies, who were idle on Friday. Speaking of Fridays, from John:
With the loss, the Cubs now are 5-8 in their rare Friday night games at home.
They have lost the last five. The four before last night: 10-2 to the Marlins in June of 2021, 12-4 to the Cardinals in September of 2021, 4-2 to the Pirates in April of 2022 and 8-3 to the Red Sox in July of 2023.
The April 2022 game noted by John was moved from 1:20 to 7:05 early that day due to weather. The others were scheduled. Also, for whatever it’s worth, the Cubs are now 3-5 in 2026 wearing the “Chicago Blues” uniforms; they were 9-4 in them last year.
The Cubs will look to even up the series with the Twins Saturday afternoon at Wrigley Field. Matthew Boyd will start for the Cubs and Taj Bradley goes for Minnesota. Game time is 1:20 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network.
Jul 17, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves catcher Drake Baldwin (30) hits an RBI single against the Texas Rangers in the fifth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images
Well, last night was fun. 15 to 1 laughers tend to be that way. Hopefully, this sets the tone for the remainder of the season. How about 5 barrels for the Braves and 1 for the Rangers? One of those barrels was Austin Riley’s home run off a catcher. Another hard hit ball was reliever Victor Mederos’ 103 MPH RBI single. Can we spend a moment watching this again?
That’s an 80.1 MPH swing right there. Eephus or not, that’s quite a rip. The Braves had 15 batted balls at greater than 99 MPH of exit velocity. That’s their second highest total this season and is tied for 11th in all MLB games. Maybe the message is out: swing hard at strikes and kill, don’t try to place it. It seemed to be on display last night, at least.
Yes, it’s one game. And Cal Quantrill was definitely trying to be a little too fine. That does play into the other Braves approach, which is to take until deep in the count. The Braves did pick up nine hits with two strikes. But also starter Quantrill only got to throw 3.74 pitches per plate appearance. I don’t have a z-swing percentage (swings at pitches in the zone) at this hour, but I’m gonna say it was really high.
So are the Braves seeking strikes to destroy now? Please, please, please make it so.
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - MAY 13: Max Fried #54 of the New York Yankees pitches against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on May 13, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images
MOOSIC, Pa. — Max Fried had two goals for his first rehab start on Friday night: Get in all his pitches and come away feeling good.
Mission accomplished.
The New York Yankees’ left-hander, who has not pitched in a game since May 13th due to a bone bruise in his pitching elbow, worked the first three innings for the Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders in their 7-6 victory against the Worcester Red Sox at PNC Field. He overcame a lengthy first inning and allowed two runs and five hits — including a home run — with no walks, three strikeouts, and one wild pitch. He threw 52 pitches, 32 for strikes, and topped out at 95.4 mph.
“Mixing my pitches, some of my shapes. I felt like I was executing some good areas, especially outside that first inning and obviously the home run,” Fried said. “I felt like I was putting it where I wanted to and able to do what I wanted today, which was go out, try some new things, get through all my pitches, build up, and be healthy at the end.”
RailRiders manager Shelley Duncan felt Fried’s outing was solid.
“We didn’t have the best defense tonight behind him. He gave up a couple hits that could have been turned into outs. Tough plays for the fielders, I believe in those guys,” Duncan said. “But overall it was fun watching him. He had a long inning in the first and then a really efficient one in the second, which was a good bounce-back inning for him.
“He’s a hard guy to hit when he’s in the strike zone. He’s got a really loaded arsenal that makes it hard for hitters. It’s fun watching him out there.”
While Fried began his comeback from injury, George Lombard Jr. returned from an IL stint of his own. The Yankees’ No. 1 prospect — sidelined since June 16th with sprained fingers on his left (glove) hand that he suffered when reaching into a sliding Columbus Clippers runner while attempting to field a throw on a stolen base attempt — went 2-for-3 with a home run, walk, one RBI, and two runs. He handled five chances (four assists, one putout) at shortstop, but did have one throwing error.
“I’ve been kind of antsy to get back,” Lombard said. “It’s been about a month now, so I was ready to get back. My body feels good and I’m excited to get back with the team and hopefully keep helping the guys win games.”
Fried threw 28 pitches in two simulated innings June 29th, then threw 36 pitches in a live bullpen session July 11th. So coming into Friday night’s game, he was scheduled to throw about 50 pitches. He used up half that total in a six-batter top of the first inning.
Fried allowed a line-drive single on his second pitch to leadoff batter Nick Sogard, then wild-pitched him to second. After striking out Nate Eaton on five pitches, Mickey Gasper singled on a 2-0 count. He fanned Mikey Romero on seven pitches for the second out, but Andrew Knizner lined a 2-1 pitch through second baseman Marco Luciano to score Sogard and give Worcester a 1-0 lead. The lefty got Brett Harris to ground a 2-1 pitch to Lombard to end the inning.
“Just trying to get the feel of a game setting again. I’ve had a lot of BPs,” Fried said. “Trying to throw the ball over the plate, not walk guys, force action and they were ready. Ready to come out of the break.”
However, Fried rebounded in the second inning, throwing just nine pitches and getting a strikeout and ground out and a lineout.
But with one out in the third, Eaton jumped on a 2-1 pitch and sent it over the left-field fence for a home run.
“It was a slider, a pitch that I don’t really throw a ton,” Fried said. “But I wanted to try a bunch of different things today and see how it works. I guess that one didn’t.”
Gasper followed with a high chopper for an infield single. But Fried got Romero to ground out to second. Knizner then hit a grounder to third baseman Tyler Hardman that ricocheted off him and right to Lombard, who barehanded the ball and threw to first in time for the out to end the inning.
“That was one of those plays that rarely ever happen, but you’re looking for them when they do,” Lombard said. “It just kind of took a lucky bounce over to me and I was ready for it and I was able to make a good throw to first. It helped Max get out of that inning.”
After the lengthy first inning, Fried was glad to go three innings and hit his pitch limit.
“Twenty-five pitches after the first inning, I wanted to try to be able to make it through three, hopefully four,” Fried said. “When you get put behind the 8-ball like that, you just try to go out there and get a quick inning. It was nice to do that. I was able to get my three full innings, 50 pitches, and feeling good, so that’s the most important thing.”
What is next for Fried remains to be seen. Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters in New York that he expects Fried to make another rehab start Wednesday.
“I’ll just go wherever they want me to for the next one. It’s more about whatever the team needs,” Fried said. “If they want me to come and keep building up and have another outing, great. Whenever they feel like I’m ready to go and help the team, I’ll be there.”
Watching the Yankees struggle while he, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Carlos Rodón have been sidelined has been frustrating, but Fried believes the team will right itself.
“We’re a confident group. You’re not going to play your best baseball the whole year, all 162,” Fried said. “It’s been not as consistent as we’ve wanted it to, but we’re pretty motivated to come out of the break and play some of our best baseball, especially when it matters most.
“We definitely have some guys down that aren’t playing. But we also have a really deep team that’s really good. The guys filling in are more than capable of going out there and win baseball games. I’m just trying to give them as much support as I can and do what I need to make sure when I’m back that I’m contributing.”
Prior to his injury, Lombard certainly was contributing for the RailRiders, riding a nine-game hitting streak. It didn’t take him long to extend that to 10 games. He led off the the bottom of the first by crushing a 1-2 pitch from WooSox starter Raymond Burgos off the signage beyond the walkway above the bullpens in left field for his fifth Triple-A home run, tying the game at 1-1.
In two rehab appearances earlier this week with the Florida Coast League Yankees, he homered in each game.
“I was able to get some at-bats down in Tampa while I was rehabbing, so I was feeling good,” Lombard said. “I was looking for a good pitch to start off the game and put a good swing on it.”
With one out in the second, after Kenedy Corona hit a three-run home run to put the RailRiders in front, 4-1, Lombard walked and scored on a two-out double by No. 6 prospect Spencer Jones to make it 5-1. In the fourth, he singled with two outs and easily advanced to third on a single by J.C. Escarra. He struck out in his final at-bat leading off the top of the sixth and exited the game after seven innings.
“He made his presence felt right from the get-go,” Duncan said. “The thing that stood out was on Spencer’s double he put his head down and really busted it to score easy on that play. A lot of guys might watch the ball to see if it was a homer or not. It’s the little things — the plays he’s making on defense. Even though they gave him a throwing error on the one that got under (first baseman) Ernesto (Martinez Jr.’s) glove, it was a great play. He’s fun to watch, but it’s the little things that really stand out to me.”
Duncan said the plan is for Lombard to serve as DH on Saturday and play nine innings at shortstop Sunday.
COVERS INTEL:Taj Bradley ranks in the 93rd percentile in Fastball Run Value, and he throws that pitch more than double anything else.
Miguel Vargas
Samuel Basallo 
Luis Garcia Jr
HOU 
STL vs 
ARI 
SFG vs 
SEA 
