By any account, the Yankees’ superlative play as of late has made them the favorites in an AL East division that looked hyper-competitive coming into the year. The Rays are close in New York’s rearview mirror, but the heavy hitters that everyone expected to compete with the Yankees in the division this year, the Orioles, Blue Jays, and Red Sox, have all gotten off to starts that range from “sluggish” to “borderline apocalyptic”. To wit, FanGraphs’ projections put the Yankees’ median win forecast for the season a full ten wins higher than that of any of their division rivals.
But we’ve seen this movie before. The Yankees have gotten out to pretty great starts in most of their recent seasons, but they haven’t always been able to seal the deal in the division. So, even with the Yankees looking strong, which of their division rivals do you think has the best chance to re-emerge in the coming weeks?
Tampa Bay has pole position, or at least, they do among the chase pack in the division. The Rays are just two games back, staying close to the Yankees even as New York went on their eight-game win streak. I wouldn’t say the Rays have the strongest roster in this division, not by a longshot, but they’ve won games thus far and perennially find ways to wring the most out of their 26 players.
And then, there are the Sox, Jays, and O’s, all of whom have starrier rosters than Tampa but haven’t been able to get out of their own way in 2026. Per FanGraphs’ rest-of-season forecasts, the Blue Jays project to have the best roster among this group, thanks in no small part to the fact that even though they’re limping now, Toronto will at some point get some of their injured players back. Will it be too late to turn things for the defending AL champs?
The Red Sox also have a roster that looks better than their record, but they’ve plunged themselves into chaos, upending their organizational chart a month into the season. The Orioles are the most boring of these underachieving teams, not snake bitten thus far like Toronto, nor stepping on rakes like Boston. Baltimore is just a team that looked like it should be pretty decent in 2026, and so far has been a little less than decent. Perhaps that puts them in the best position to move up, as there doesn’t seem to be anything stopping them from playing better other than just, well, playing better.
What do you think? Who will prove to be the toughest rival the rest of the way out?
It’ll be a loaded day on the site today, starting off with Michael’s review of last week on the farm for the Yankees, Kevin’s recap of Monday night’s American League action, and Sam’s celebration of Tom Sturdivant as part of our Yankees Birthday series. Later, Peter’s At-bat of the Week highlights José Caballero, Andrés praises Caballero’s work filling in for Anthony Volpe, and Josh discusses who on the Yankees should have the green light to challenge balls and strikes.
Today’s Matchup
New York Yankees at Texas Rangers
Time: 8:05 p.m. EST
Video: Amazon Prime Video, Rangers Sports Network
Venue: Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX