Category: Baseball

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Full slate Tuesday!

My MLB moneyline predictions for today's slate include backing a lot of pricey favorites, which include the Baltimore Orioles.

Before we dive in, be sure to check out all our MLB picks for Tuesday, Sept. 8.

MLB moneyline picks for September 8

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Matchup	Pick
Guardians vs Orioles	52%
Astros vs Phillies	44%
Twins vs Tigers	56%
Mets vs Marlins	54%
Angels vs Red Sox	44%
Rockies vs Yankees	25%
Rays vs Braves	49%
Diamondbacks vs Royals	48%
Cubs vs Brewers	66%
Pirates vs White Sox	57%
Rangers vs Mariners	44%
Blue Jays vs A's	62%
Nationals vs Padres	63%
Cardinals vs Giants	50%
Reds vs Dodgers	74%

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of September 8.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for September 8

Guardians vs Orioles: Orioles 

Orioles win probability: 52%

Orioles right-hander Brandon Young has been holding it down in his last few outings, posting a 2.79 ERA while limiting hard-hit and barreled balls. On the other side, Tanner Bibee has been solid, but he has been walking guys at a very high rate, which the Orioles could exploit, as they have been drawing a lot of walks over their last 12 games.

Neither offense has shown much life as of late, so we will be leaning with the better arm.

Astros vs Phillies: Astros 

Astros win probability: 44%

Both arms in this matchup have been great over their last five outings, while neither offense has posted a wRC+ above 90 in quite some time.

Why pay the juice in this spot? Take the dog.

Twins vs Tigers: Tigers 

Tigers win probability: 56%

Pay the juice! It is the Tigers or nothing here.

Sure, the Tigers’ bats have cooled down as of late, but Dean Kremer has been brutal in his most recent outings, posting a 7.43 ERA and 1.80 WHIP while allowing a 47%+ hard-hit rate and 14% barrel rate over his last three starts.

Batters-Box has Kremer owning the worst pitcher rating on the day in its current season dataset.

Full fade on Kremer.

Mets vs Marlins: Marlins 

Marlins win probability: 54%

Simple fade on Sean Manaea, who has progressively gotten worse with each start. Over his last five outings, he owns a 5.87 ERA while allowing a barrel rate above 15%. Over his last three, those numbers jump to a 7.79 ERA and nearly an 18% barrel rate. The Marlins’ bats should be able to get after the veteran early and often.

Angels vs Red Sox: Angels 

Angels win probability: 44%

Back the dog here. It is going to be sweaty with how poorly the Angels’ bats have been, but Patrick Sandoval has been horrible in his last five starts, posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.80 WHIP while allowing a 10%+ barrel rate to opposing hitters.

Meanwhile, Reid Detmers has been nails, allowing little to no hard contact over his last five outings while owning a 0.82 ERA.

Get filthy. Back the Halos.

Rockies vs Yankees: Rockies 

Rockies win probability: 25%

Will the Yankees likely win this ballgame with Cam Schlittler on the bump and the juice that getting Aaron Judge back will bring? Likely, yes.

However, at that price? No.

The Rockies have posted a 114 wRC+, .353 wOBA, and .808 OPS over the last week. Maybe these bats can come alive against the potential AL Cy Young winner.

Rays vs Braves: Rays 

Rays win probability: 49%

Small sample size, but Braves starter AJ Smith-Shawver has been pretty bad since returning. He owns a 7.13 ERA and 1.75 WHIP while facing one of the most consistent lineups in baseball.

Sure, Freddy Peralta is on the bump for Tampa Bay, but he has been very solid in his last three starts, posting a 2.84 ERA and just a 0.68 WHIP.

Take the dog.

Diamondbacks vs Royals: Royals

Royals win probability: 48%

We have no idea what to expect from Corbin Burnes this evening, as he is making his 2026 debut after being out for more than a year due to injury.

However, one thing we do know is Michael Wacha has been holding it down, sporting a 1.71 ERA and 0.76 WHIP over his last three starts. On top of that, the Royals’ bats have been hot for more than three weeks now, while Arizona is frozen at the dish.

Cubs vs Brewers: Brewers

Brewers win probability: 66%

Do we want to trust Jacob Misiorowski or David Peterson this evening? Such a tough debate, right? We’re debating whether to take a guy with a 6.14 ERA over his last three starts or a guy with a 3.94 ERA.

If you haven’t picked up on the sarcasm yet, it is the Brewers or nothing. I refuse to get in front of the Misiorowski freight train.

Pirates vs White Sox: White Sox

White Sox win probability: 57%

The South Siders should be able to tee off on Bubba Chandler early and often, as he is mainly throwing fastballs, and this White Sox team foams at the mouth for four-seam fastballs. Especially Munetaka Murakami, who needs a guy like this to snap out of his cold streak.

Sean Burke has been great, and if he can limit the walks, he should be able to keep his team in this.

Rangers vs Mariners: Rangers  

Rangers win probability: 44%

Neither starter in this matchup has been putting up great numbers over their last few outings, but one offense has been producing more than the other. Sure, Seattle has been heating up, but the Rangers have been much hotter.

Texas owns a 122 wRC+, .346 wOBA, and .791 OPS over its last 12 games.

Take the dog.

Blue Jays vs A's: Blue Jays

Blue Jays win probability: 62%

The Blue Jays have to keep their heads down if they want a chance at the postseason. These are games they have to win.

Their bats have been pretty hot as of late, which is good news for Toronto, as Jack Perkins owns a 7.04 ERA at home.

Toronto will also need Jose Soriano to be nails this evening.

Stay hungry, Toronto.

Nationals vs Padres: Padres 

Padres win probability: 63%

Unless this is a brand-new Matt Waldron, I want no part of backing him to hold anything down this evening. The Nationals right-hander owns a 5.63 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over his last five starts.

Casey Mize has not been much better for San Diego, but we know he is nails at home, with a 2.98 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.

Plus, the Padres’ bullpen is light-years better than Washington’s.

Give me the favorite.

Cardinals vs Giants: Giants 

Giants win probability: 50%

The hometown team is talking to me after the Giants walked it off last night against the Cardinals.

Tonight, they send out Landen Roupp, who has been pretty solid over his last few starts, limiting hard-hit balls.

On the other side, St. Louis has Quinn Mathews on the mound, who owns a 5.17 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over his last three starts.

If the Giants can get after Mathews early and force him to go to the bullpen, which owns a 4.41 xERA on the season, they should be able to open this game up early.

Reds vs Dodgers: Dodgers

Dodgers win probability: 74%

Nick Lodolo has an 8.10 ERA, 8.04 xERA, and 2.02 WHIP while allowing a 53%+ hard-hit rate and nearly a 15% barrel rate over his last three starts. This Dodgers lineup should be able to feast on Lodolo’s offerings this evening.

Tarik Skubal should be able to cool off the red-hot Reds bats. Take the home favorite.

“But bu- you said not to pay this much juice.”

Lodolo has been far worse than Rockies starter Gabriel Hughes. That is the difference.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Orioles fans and fans across the country.

With 17 games left to play in the 2026 season, the Orioles “tragic number” is 13. That is, the combination of Orioles losses and Guardians wins that will clinch that the O’s don’t make the playoffs. They have stacked the odds substantially against themselves making it after getting mopped in the four-game Red Sox series this past weekend.

Still, they are not mathematically eliminated yet, and even if you don’t believe that they’re going to make it, there’s the question of how much of a collapse they might have between now and season’s end. That’s the aim in this week’s poll question, asking how far behind the eventual AL Wild Card 3 team you think that the Orioles will finish. It could still be the Guardians, Blue Jays, Rangers, or even – if they go on a miraculous run – the O’s themselves.

Vote in the poll below:

Notorious pessimist though I am, I did make sure that “they make the playoffs” is still one of the choices, so all of those who just can’t stop believing can register their optimism. Of course, more likely, they won’t make it, and I’m interested in seeing how far you think the team will fall between now and season’s end.

Right now, the Orioles are three games back of the Guardians. They have a chance to take games with their remaining two head-to-head games, and there are also six games coming against the Blue Jays. I don’t think the Orioles will do anything positive with these opportunities, but they are there.

Maybe you think the Orioles will play just well enough to miss out by a game or two. Maybe you think they’ll tread water right around here, not in the race exactly but not mathematically eliminated until the final handful of games. Or maybe you think they’re going to continue the swan dive that their games against the Rockies and Red Sox suggested was on the way.

By now you’ve probably all seen the quote circulating online: “I mean, not [to be all] me, me, me, me, but I’ve done crazy things before. I’m not Joe Schmoe. I’ve done impressive things. I think that that would be a big ask for some people, but I don’t think it’s a crazy ask for me.” That’s Garrett Crochet speaking about the fact that he is now aiming to return and pitch in the postseason, even though he won’t make a single appearance between now and the end of the regular season. It would potentially be a legendary moment for Crochet if he can pull it off, but he’s not there yet, as he didn’t get get his fastball above 90 MPH when he threw a bullpen on Friday. He’ll throw another bullpen today and hopes to face live hitters in a simulated game setting soon, as he has run out of time to make a rehab appearance in the minors. (Tim Healey, Boston Globe)

Crochet isn’t the only arm hoping to work his way back into the bullpen. While Crochet will merely throw a bullpen today, Tanner Houck will make a 20-pitch appearance for AA Portland, with hopes of bumping that number up to 45 on Friday. He’s itching to go. “It’s been a fun team to watch from afar,” said Houck. “The energy the players bring every night, the excitement level they bring to the city, I want to do nothing but help them in this postseason push and have a deep playoff run.” (Ian Browne, MLB.com)

If he is able to return and look like his old self, the Red Sox bullpen will be downright nasty in October. And hopefully the starting rotation will be right there with them, because it’s the starters who have been the key to this mini winning streak. (Sean McAdam, MassLive)

In addition to working on his velocity and command, Crochet will need to practice the team’s new post-game victory ritual, the celebration circle. “While there were the usual get-togethers by the outfielders and infielders, just outside the Red Sox dugout, a group of five players gathered to form a circle, put their arms around each other and do a little dance. Nick Sogard. Andruw Monasterio. Connor Wong. Nate Eaton. And the creator of the brief celebration, Jahmai Jones. For just a few seconds, they were all in their own little world.” (Rob Bradford, WEEI)

While we’ll hopefully get to see more celebration circles in October at the ends of games, we unfortunately won’t get what would’ve been a special pregame ceremony: that being one-time interim manager Joe Morgan being honored at Fenway before current interim manager Chad Tracy’s team takes the field. That’s because Morgan passed away at the age of 95 over the weekend. “Joe’s life is a story about never giving up. It’s a story about perseverance. It’s a story about hustle. And, yes, it’s a story about being in the right place at the right time.” (Steve Buckley, The Athletic)

The Kansas City Royals decided to change the dimensions of Kauffman Stadium during the winter. As a reminder, here are the changes the team made, courtesy of the Anne Rogers article about the change at the time it was announced:

According to a team-provided diagram, the left- and right-field corners are being pulled in nine feet, from 356 and 353 feet, respectively, to 347 and 344 feet. The previous distances of 373 in both left and right fields will be nine feet closer, at 364 feet. Left-center and right-center fields will be moved in 10 feet, from 389 feet to 379 feet.

According to Royals President of Baseball Operations J.J. Picollo, the goal of the team in making the changes was to have a fairer park, not a hitter-friendly one:

“Our goal here isn’t to have an offensive ballpark,” Picollo said. “It’s to have a very fair ballpark. We don’t want it to turn into a bandbox and every ball up in the air turns into a home run. We just want hitters to be rewarded when they hit the ball well, particularly in the gaps.”

We’ve now seen most of a season with the new ballpark dimensions. As a fan who sat in the new seats once this year, I enjoyed the view from out there, so at least on that front the Royals did a nice job. Did the changes to the fence line, however, keep Kauffman Stadium as a relatively neutral park, or turn it into an offensive one?

The K’s big outfield gave it the reputation of being a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but the statistics painted it as a slightly hitter-friendly ballpark, albeit with some strange quirks. Here’s a table—with information gathered from Statcast—about the Royals’ rolling three-year park factors from 2023–2025:

We see that the previous dimensions of Kauffman Stadium helped hitters hit more doubles and triples while suppressing strikeouts (where 100 is average; higher is above average, while lower is below average). The K, however, was the 27th-hardest park to hit a home run in. On balance, this led to a slightly above-average park, but one that played differently than other MLB parks. The front office felt that the different approaches their hitters had to take at home versus on the road were hurting the team, so they decided to make the switch.

So what can we conclude about the changes the team made? The short answer is not much, or at least nothing that you would want to gamble your life savings on Kalshi for. Park factors, for a variety of reasons, can be pretty noisy from year to year. The most accurate models look at either three-year or five-year park factors to determine what they truly are, which is why I used a three-year rolling model in the table above. You wouldn’t determine what a player is going to be for the season in late May. 

As someone who is temperamentally a mugwump, I’m comfortable with “Who knows? Let’s collect more data.” That, however, makes for a pretty boring article, and we do have some data after nearly a year to start making observations and inferences. So let’s look back at the Statcast data for 2026 to see the one year park factor for the updated Kauffman Stadium. 

This season, Kauffman Stadium has been a good place for hitters to hit extra-base hits of every kind, including home runs. Triples aren’t as high as they used to be, but are still well above average. Home runs are closer to average than they used to be, just on the higher side this season. If you made me bet, I’d say the three-year home run average is going to be closer to 100 than 105, but time will tell.

The K has played like a true hitters’ park this year, supporting extra-base hits while continuing to suppress strikeouts more than any other park besides Chase Field. If the 106 park factor were a three-year average instead of a one-year average, Kauffman Stadium would have the third-highest park factor in MLB this season, trailing only Coors Field and the minor-league stadium that the Athletics currently call home.

When I think of a bandbox, I think of an obscene amount of home runs, and that has not been the case at Kauffman Stadium in 2026. The Royals, however, may have overshot fair and might have made Kauffman Stadium a great park for hitters in the last few years of its life. We will see if it regresses back towards the mean next year or if it remains one of the best parks for bitters in 2027. 

Jack Mahoney (No. 15 PuRP) finished the 2025 season in the Arizona Fall League and was assigned to repeat Double-A Hartford to start the 2026 season. But that seemed to work well for the right-hander, as he posted a 1.99 ERA in 13 starts before being promoted in early August.

And the promotion came on the heels of winning Rockies Organizational Pitcher of the Month for July.

“I think it’s just kind of a tribute to putting one foot in front of the other and trying to continue to just become the best pitcher I can be and pouring into that,” Mahoney said of the win. “It’s obviously a great nod, but (I’m) just kind of focused on trying to continue to develop and become the starter that I want to be.”

And part of that first half included the Yard Goats winning the first half in the Eastern League, which was a highlight for Mahoney.

“Everyone talks about how great of a league that is, so having that group together down there in Hartford and getting to play with them and contribute to winning the first half down there, that was definitely the highlight,” he said.

Mahoney made five starts and posted a 1.65 ERA leading up to his win and promotion, and he has continued to take a step forward in Albuquerque. In his Triple-A debut, Mahoney pitched five innings and allowed two runs on six hits with one home run, two walks, and six strikeouts. And he’s been making adjustments throughout the season.

“I think seeing the hitters be more disciplined in approach and swing decisions and trying to put together reports pregame and throughout the week, and watching some guys on where they want to hit the baseball,” he said.

One of the big things Mahoney has had to adjust to is the use of the ABS system, which doesn’t exist in the lower minors. So the coaches make sure to provide more advanced scouting reports to the pitchers and catchers.

“These guys don’t really want to come out of the zone – nor should they,” he said. “I think that’s just kind of been one of the bigger (things) is throwing into that strike zone now, where guys are probably more disciplined in their approach. So just trying to marry that with what works for me and how I’m going to get those guys out.”

And that has forced Mahoney to see the strike zone in a different way, and refine the way he pitches.

“I think for me, just a big thing since I’ve been up here, too, is just talking about trying to eliminate as many ‘uncompetitive pitches’ as possible, just because that’s a wasted bullet in our eyes,” he explained. “I just think with the strike zone now, it just kind of shrinks down – the competitive looks that you’re going to give guys.

“So I think just through bullpens and just through innings up here so far, I’m learning, ‘Hey, this pitch is going to play here and let’s try and stay out of the zone with this one,’” he continued. “But yeah, just trying to put that approach together and furthering my knowledge of lineups throughout the week doing advanced reports and talking to a lot of people about what it should look like.”

One of the more unique things about Triple-A is that there are always players coming and going, including veteran players on rehab assignments. But that hasn’t phased Mahoney who say’s he’s still “trying to learn as much as I possibly can and apply that to what I think I do well, or maybe not do so well, right now.

“I think it’s really important for me – whether it’s a hitter or a pitcher who have been on that stage,” he continued. “I want to pitch up in the big leagues, so I think it’s just really important that you stay in your lane about it, but also just try to build that relationship and develop that with these guys that have been there, done that, almost and gotten time up there and seen what it’s about. I think every level you go up, the level of play increases, and so just trying to learn as much as possible and trying to be as prepared as possible from that day, when that day comes.”

And another thing about the minors, and baseball in general, is the potential for movement. For Mahoney, this was the second time he was promoted mid-season, and he was grateful he’d done it before so he knew better what to expect.

“Obviously, you want to get promoted, but I think the first time, maybe you get sped up a little bit and you’re just in a new spot with a new team, new guys, new dugouts, new everything,” he said.

“So I think this time, it was just about being as consistent as I could be in my routine that I’ve stayed in every day since the beginning of the year, and just having that routine when I show up to the field. It really kind of is that familiar feeling for me.

“Going from Double-A all the way out on the east coast and flying across the country – I think I showed up to the Hartford Airport and then I met the team out in El Paso — it was a long trek,” he continued, “but just trying to slow everything down and realize that it’s still a locker room. It’s baseball. This is what I love to do, and just slow the heart rate down and slow the days down, and just try to get settled and pack up your good clothes and throw the rest of your clothes in your car and get out to the other affiliate.”

Mahoney has also been adjusting to the elevation of the Pacific Coast League. RGCU Field at Isotopes Park sits at 5,100 feet, which is just a tick under Coors Field.

“I think it’s one of those things where you don’t really understand it until you’re in it,” he said, and definitely in my first couple of starts, I’ve seen what that’s all about. So I think it’s just kind of taking that information and not just looking at it as like, ‘Oh man, this doesn’t move as much’ or looking at it as a bad thing – just learning how to adjust to it.

“So I think the biggest thing that we talk about right now is just kind of adjusting our sights because, obviously, the pitch is going to have less movement,” he continued. “So you’ve got to figure out where to start things and how it’s still going to play as well as you want it to when you’re pitching at sea level. So just understanding that and understanding that’s where you’re at that day, and just really adjusting the sights and trying to get reps under your belt – especially as a starting pitcher, just because you’re going to be out there for 100 pitches or whatever. Just understanding when you’re going to let those shots go, and just where you want to start.”

But overall, it was a “solid year” for Mahoney, who has posted a 5.47 ERA in six starts for the Isotopes. He has allowed two runs in four of his starts, and four in the other two.

“As far as development goes, [I’m] just trying to figure out what makes me the best pitcher I can be,” he said. “I have three starts left here, so I’m just really looking forward to continuing to get innings under my belt at this level. I’ve got two more starts in Albuquerque, so I think getting two more starts under my belt with the elevation and understanding what that looks like for me.

“It’s been a pretty fun journey this year,” he said. “I think [it’s] just continuing to pour my energy into developing and becoming the best starter I can be.”

Weekly Pebble Report: September 1st-6th

Triple-A: Albuquerque Isotopes (2-4, 67-71 overall)

The Isotopes lost the series 2-4 against the Tacoma Rainiers (Mariners), but it was a high-scoring affair. The Topes were outscored 38-35 across the six games. It marked Albuquerques 11th series loss of the year, including their sixth at home and third in the last four sets. Even though they won on Sunday, they still have lost 14 of their last 20 games and six of their last eight.

⬆️ Stock Up: The Condor is soaring!

Charlie Condon (No. 2 PuRP) had an outstanding week that capped off with hitting two grand slams on Sunday against the Rainiers. He became the second Isotope to achieve such a feat, and the first to do it at RGCU Field at Isotopes Park — Jerry Sands hit two on July 29, 2012 at the Nashville Sounds (Brewers) when the Isotopes were still an affiliate of the Dodgers.

Overall, Condon went 8-for-24 with two doubles, three home runs (including the two grand slams), 11 RBI, five runs scored, two walks, nine strikeouts and a stolen base.

Upcoming: The Topes head out on the road for the final time, traveling to Reno to take on the Aces (Diamondbacks), before returning to Albuquerque for their final homestand next week.

Double-A: Hartford Yard Goats (3-3, 64-67 overall)

The Yard Goats split their final series of the year 3-3 against the Reading Fightin Phils (Phillies). They outscored the Phils 28-27, and two high-scoring games: a 10-5 loss on Thursday and a 9-o shutout victory on Saturday. After winning the first half on June 19th — the earliest in club history — the Goats will host Game 2 and Game 3 (if necessary) in a Best of 3 ELDS starting next Tuesday.

⬆️ Stock Up: Stu on it

Stu Flesland III continues to impress in Hartford, making one start this week against Reading. Flesland tossed 5.2 scoreless innings with two walks and seven strikeouts. Flesland originally joined the Yard Goats as a reliever, making six appearances out of the bullpen before joining the starting rotation in July. He has made 11 starts and has only given up three or more earned runs three times.

Flesland has gotten better as the year has progressed, and was named Eastern League Player of the Month and Rockies Minor League Pitcher of the Month for August after posting a 1.29 ERA across six starts (35.0 innings).

⬆️ Stock Up: Jacob Humphreykeeps hitting

Jacob Humphrey had an outstanding week, going 7-for-21 with three runs scored, two walks and five strikeouts this week against Reading. He also stole two bases. Humphrey was promoted on August 18 after a stint on the 7-day injured list, but didn’t let the injury slow him down. Since his promotion, Humphrey has gone 21-for-43 (.328) with three doubles, three RBI, four walks, 12 strikeouts and seven runs scored. He has also stolen six total bases in six attempts in Hartford.

Upcoming: The Yard Goats will head to Somerset to take on the Double-A affiliate of their Major League opponent — the Somerset Patriots (Yankees) — for their final series before playoffs begin next Tuesday.

High-A: Spokane Indians (2-4, 58-73 overall)

The Indians limped to the finish line, going 2-4 in their final six games and being outscored 42-26. However, they ended on a high note with a 10-4 victory over the Everett AquaSox (Mariners).

Fun Fact: Entering Sunday’s season finale, the Indians have recorded 11 walk-off wins in 64 home games this year (that’s roughly one walk-off win per homestand). Spokane’s 11 walk-offs are five more than the next closest Northwest League team (Vancouver, 6) and more than any MLB team (Chicago White Sox, 10).

⬆️ Stock Up: Robert the Magnificent

Robert Calaz (No. 26 PuRP) had a strong showing in the final week. The outfielder went 7-for-18 with four doubles, two home runs, four RBI, three runs scored, two walks and six strikeouts across five games in September. He also finished the year with a 20-game on-base streak, including hits in 16 of his final 17 games. Overall, Calaz slashed .237/.312/.396 in 105 games with Spokane this season.

⬆️ Stock Up: He’s a Wild(er) man!

Wilder Dalis (No. 10 PuRP) finished 2026 strong, going 9-for-25 with a double, two home runs, four RBI, five runs scored and five strikeouts. He didn’t walk nor steal a base in the last week. In total, Dalis slashed .322/.344/.492 with one double, three home runs, seven RBI, nine runs scored, two walks and 12 strikeouts across 16 games in High-A.

Upcoming: The Indians finished fifth in the second half (out of six) and sixth overall on the season, so their season is over for 2026.

Low-A: Fresno Grizzlies (1-5, 69-63 overall)

Fresno had the hardest go in the final week of the season, mustering just one win against the San Jose Giants — a 6-2 victory on Wednesday. Overall, they were outscored 35-28. Entering the final game, they needed a win and a Stockton loss to Visalia to force a tie in the second-half standings and get the Grizzlies into the postseason. Unfortunately, that did not happen and the Grizzlies’ season ended on Sunday.

Fun Fact: In 2026, Fresno has gone 26-15 in one-run decisions (.634 winning percentage). That helped them in their final playoff push, but it ultimately wasn’t enough.

⬆️ Stock Up: Andujar bounces back

Ashly Andujar (No. 30 PuRP) finished the year strong, going 8-for-26 in his final six games against the San Jose Giants. He also recorded two doubles, two RBI, five runs scored, two walks and eight strikeouts with one stolen base. He recored two hits in four of his final six games, while in the others he went 0-for-5 and 0-for-4, respectively. Andujar started the year by repeating the ACL, but then had a decent season after he was promoted on May 24, slashing .242/.301/.324 with 10 doubles, four triples, three home runs, 33 RBI, 47 runs scored, 26 walks and 72 strikeouts. He also stole six bases in 10 attempts.

⬆️ Stock Up: Shine like a (Van) Sickle

Bryson Van Sickle had an outstanding final showing of the season, tossing seven innings against San Jose and allowing just two runs (one earned) on two hits with nine strikeouts. It’s been an up-and-down year for the left-hander, but he ended on a high note.

Upcoming: Like the Indians, the Grizzlies finished third in their division in the second half after their loss to San Jose, so despite finishing second overall in the California League North, they missed the playoffs and their season is over.

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

Inspiration.

I very much enjoyed Jim McLennan’s The Arizona Diamondbacks Have Not Gone Streaking.  I learned that the Diamondbacks have not won 7 consecutive games since 7 September 2017 (a very long time).

And I tip my hat to JWinMesa for his comment to that article. A summary is that as measured by Total Streak Quotient, TSQ (5 consecutive games won or 5 consecutive games lost), the Diamondbacks are one of the least streaky teams of the decade.  

A Remarkable Discovery.

As I prepared my series preview for the Diamondbacks vs Royals (series starts 14 September) I compared the teams’ TSQ for this season.  What was remarkable is that the Royals were twice as streaky (TSQ of .273 vs .133).

The TSQ calculation follows:

TSQ = (Streak Wins plus Streak Losses) divided by (total games).

My calculation for the Diamondbacks revealed something remarkable:  This season, the Diamondbacks have not lost 5 consecutive games. That means no losing streaks happened.

Investigating That Discovery.

Come From Behind Wins. This season, 42 games (through 5 September) were won after the Diamondbacks were behind at some point in the game.  That is exceptional!

Impactful Come From Behind Wins. This season, there were 21 come from behind wins with scores so close that the RBI event (while the Diamondbacks were behind, and that either tied or put the Diamondbacks ahead) was at least as large as the differential in the final score.   That means that half the games would likely not have been won without the RBI event while the Diamondbacks were behind.

That kind of RBI event is precisely the type of event that prevented losing streaks. For example, in March/April, 13 of 16 wins were come from behind (8 were impactful come from behind wins). Without much doubt, a long losing streak would have happened except for the impactful come from behind wins.

The following table shows games with the impactful RBI, and the players who made the impact. In three impactful come from behind wins, I gave credit to two batters because it was the fair thing to do. Data from Baseball Reference.

UPDATE: On 9/6 against HOU, James McCann’s sac fly tied the game. The Diamondbacks won, so his RBI was the 22nd impactful RBI event (and the 43rd come from behind win). Honorable mention to Nolan Arenado whose 2-run homer put the Diamondbacks ahead the rest of the game.

Three Batters Had 52% of the Impactful RBIs in Come From Behind Wins:  Vargas, Perdomo, and Marte. I looked at the batters whose RBI took the Diamondbacks from behind to either tied or ahead.   In three impactful come from behind wins, I gave credit to two batters because it was the fair thing to do.

Explanatory why March/April had more come from behind wins. Both Vargas and Perdomo had an above average OPS in March/April (and no other months). That explains why March/April had twice as many come from behind wins as the other months. Also, every month had at least one of Vargas/Perdomo/Marte with an above average OPS.

An Explanation for Vargas and Perdomo having impact. When opponents’ pitchers have the lead, and pitch to batters with below average hard-hit percentages, they can get overconfident. They failed to consider that Vargas and Perdomo have stellar squared-up percentages (89th percentile and 96th percentile), which allow them to hit RBIs effectively in come from behind situations.

Although Ketel Marte had an above average hard-hit percentage, his hard-hit percentage was below averaeg in August. For the season, his squared up percentage was above average (62nd percentile). So the explanation somewhat applies to Marte, too.

Summary.

My calculation of Total Streak Quotient for the Diamondbacks revealed something remarkable:  This season, the Diamondbacks have not lost 5 consecutive games. That means no losing streaks happened.

This season, 42 games (through 5 September) were won after the Diamondbacks were behind at some point in the game.  Half of those wins ended with scores so close that the RBI event (while the Diamondbacks were behind, and that either tied or put the Diamondbacks ahead) was at least as large as the differential in the final score.  That kind of RBI event is precisely the type of event that prevented losing streaks.

Three Batters had 52% of the impactful RBIs in come from behind wins:  Vargas, Perdomo, and Marte.

Although Vargas and Perdomo had below average hard-hit percentages, their stellar squared up percentages combined with being underestimated by opposing pitchers, produced above-average impactful RBIs.

The Mets have been a different team since the All-Star Game and are playing a more fun, exciting brand of baseball since the Aug. 3 trade deadline. They are 26-21 since the unofficial second half began, and 19-12 since having their sell-off at the deadline. 

Looking back a bit further, New York has a 31-28 record since June 30, meaning the club has had a two month-plus stretch that arguably shows what happened earlier this season (including a 12-game losing streak that helped derail their hopes) was likely an aberration.

But aberration or not, the Mets could not find enough success over the first three months of the year to save a season that began with World Series expectations. Blame for that lies mainly at the feet of president of baseball operations David Stearns, who oversaw an offseason of change that might have just been too much. 

With the Mets excelling lately, a cynic could fairly say that the pressure is off. While that's true, it can be argued that lots of this turnaround has to do with players getting comfortable, gaining experience, and getting healthy, which could prove huge for a team that will likely return a large chunk of this core in 2027.

To highlight just a few...

Bo Bichette, who seemed a bit overwhelmed early as he adjusted to a new team and a huge market, has been himself since May 18. In 96 games since then, he is slashing .293/.340/.467 (.807 OPS) with 14 homers. While Bichette (who has opt-outs after this season and next) has yet to make a decision about his future, it would be relatively surprising if he opted out of a deal that will pay him $42 million in 2027.

After struggling for the first month as he acclimated to the majors, rookieCarson Benge (whose OPS entering play on April 22 was .416) has been a force. At the plate, he has a .798 OPS over his last 117 games. In right field, he's made highlight-reel plays routinely and displayed a cannon of an arm that rates at the very top of the sport.

Francisco Lindor missed two months due to a calf injury and has looked much more like himself since being back.

Christian Scottreturned from Tommy John surgery and cemented his rotation spot starting on May 1, helping to stabilize the starting staff along the way.

In a universe where Bichette and Benge didn't struggle so much out of the gate and Lindor didn't go down, this season likely would've gone very differently. But in this universe, the Mets are playing out the string.

Fortunately for them, this feels like a team that is a few tweaks (albeit relatively major ones) away from being right back in contention.

With that as a backdrop, here are five big storylines to watch down the stretch that could have an impact on how the roster is assembled ahead of 2027...

Jonah Tong and Zac Thornton

Following an up-and-down season in Triple-A Syracuse where he worked to implement a cutter, Tong impressed during his first big league start of the year, tossing five innings on Sept. 7 against the Marlins in Miami.

While Tong allowed four runs (all in the second inning), he showed the kind of composure he lacked in his big league stint in 2025. And his stuff (primarily his fastball-changeup combo) also played up, as Tong struck out seven and generated 16 swings and misses.

It's hard to envision a scenario where Tong does enough down the stretch to be viewed as a rotation member out of the gate in 2027, but he still possesses plenty of upside.

As far as Thornton, he has been excelling despite not-so-great metrics, showing moxie and often pitching relatively deep into games.

Thornton, who could be valuable rotation depth in 2027, has posted a 3.53 ERA in 12 starts this season while completing six innings or more six times.

How will Sean Manaea's Jekyll and Hyde season end?

It's been a tale of three seasons for Manaea.

He was relegated to the bullpen from Opening Day through June 7, as he struggled with reduced velocity following a 2025 season where he had an elbow issue.

From June 13 to Aug. 9, Manaea -- with his fastball sitting in the low-90s -- posted a 3.58 ERA in 61.2 innings over 11 starts, including a pair of largely dominant seven-inning performances.

Over his last four starts, Manaea has gotten hit hard, posting a 7.23 ERA (6.60 FIP) in 23.2 innings while surrendering 30 hits (including seven home runs).

A few weeks ago, it seemed safe to put Manaea's name down in ink when it came to a spot in the 2027 rotation. Now, it can be argued that it's in pencil.

Who are the keepers in the remade bullpen?

Somewhat implausibly, the Mets traded four stalwarts of their 2026 bullpen at the deadline (Luke Weaver, Huascar Brazoban, Brooks Raley, and A.J. Minter) and found themselves with a relief corps that's arguably better.

With Devin Williams on the IL, Kodai Senga assumed the closer role shortly after being turned into a high-leverage reliever. Using primarily his four-seam fastball and ghost fork, Senga has been terrific since becoming a short reliever, posting a 1.46 ERA in 12.1 innings while fanning 13.

The Mets haven't yet decided what Senga's role will be in 2027, and it bears watching when it comes to whether his body can handle the rigors of regular relief use.

Rookie left-hander Nate Lavender -- whose elite extension leads to his pitches kind of jumping at hitters -- has yet to allow a run over his first 13.0 big league innings, posting a 0.61 WHIP along the way. Barring a surprise, he has all but secured a spot in the 2027 'pen.

Daniel Duarte has also opened eyes, with a 2.00 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in 27.0 innings while allowing only 14 hits. Duarte, like Lavender, missed most of the last two seasons due to elbow surgery.

The Marcus Semien situation

Since returning from a hip injury on July 18 (a malady he played through for a while and probably hampered his production), Semien has been a bit better.

At the dish, he has posted a .676 OPS (it was .613 when he landed on the IL).

In the field, Semien has been smoother and rangier, displaying the kind of defensive prowess that won him a Gold Glove with the Rangers in 2025.

If Semien can simply be a league average hitter, keeping him in the lineup regularly in 2027 would be justifiable. If not, the arrival of a prospect like Jefferson Rojas or Mitch Voit could happen quickly, potentially turning Semien into a very expensive bench player.

Who's on first?

Given how their roster is constituted, it's possible the only way the Mets can seriously improve their offense for next season is by adding a first baseman and/or designated hitter.

To that end, how sold are they on Jared Young as a potential long end of a first base platoon?

Young has posted a .796 against right-handers this season, but just .606 against lefties.

Mark Vientos, whose return from injury was preceded by some relatively pointed comments by interim manager Andy Green, has slugged two homers in five games since returning. But his defense at first base has remained an issue.

Then there's Brett Baty, whose offensive production has ticked up since Aug. 21, with him posting a 1.101 OPS in 36 plate appearances over his last 14 games.

Dana Brown is no longer the general manager of the Houston Astros, and as we begin dissecting what he did and didn’t do, during his tenure, one glaring failure stands above the rest.

The Astros started this season with a major problem in the outfield.

Now, with less than a month remaining in the regular season, they still have the exact same problem.

That’s difficult to comprehend.

There will be plenty of debate over how much authority Brown actually had during his time in Houston. Was Jim Crane heavily involved in personnel decisions? How much influence did Jeff Bagwell and others within Crane’s inner circle have? Was Brown empowered to construct the roster the way he wanted, or was he operating with one hand tied behind his back?

Those are legitimate questions.

But regardless of who deserves what percentage of the blame, the final product speaks for itself.

The Astros needed outfield help before the season started. They needed it during the first half. They needed it approaching the trade deadline. They needed it after the deadline.

And they still need it today.

At some point, somebody has to be held accountable for failing to solve such an obvious problem.

The Astros had months to find a legitimate corner outfielder capable of providing consistent major league production. Instead, we’ve watched a revolving door of players come through Houston as the organization repeatedly hoped it could resurrect someone’s career or somehow catch lightning in a bottle.

It hasn’t worked.

Jorge Barrosa is simply the latest player to get his opportunity and try to provide the production Houston has been searching for all season.

Before him came Nelson Velázquez, whose struggles have been especially noticeable defensively and who hasn’t provided enough offense to compensate for those shortcomings.

Taylor Trammell and LaMonte Wade Jr. have had their moments.

But that’s the problem.

They’ve been moments.

There haven’t been enough of them to justify believing these are everyday outfielders for a team with legitimate postseason aspirations.

For an organization that spent most of the last decade setting the standard for roster construction in Major League Baseball, it’s borderline embarrassing.

How many reclamation projects can one contender run onto the field before admitting the plan hasn’t worked?

This isn’t about expecting an All-Star at every position. Championship teams always have role players, inexpensive contributors and veterans trying to recapture previous success.

But there is a difference between supplementing your roster with those players and depending on them.

The Astros have spent an entire season depending on them.

And somehow, Joe Espada has continued to find ways to win.

That’s another element of this discussion that shouldn’t be ignored as Crane evaluates Espada’s future after the season.

If we’re going to criticize the manager when things go wrong, then we also have to acknowledge what he’s accomplished with the roster he was given.

Espada has kept this team in contention despite dealing with injuries, inconsistent pitching and one of the least productive offensive outfields in baseball.

He’s had to mix and match lineups constantly, searching for combinations that could provide enough offense to survive.

At times, that has even meant putting Yordan Alvarez in left field more frequently than anyone would probably prefer simply because the Astros desperately needed to find another way to construct a productive lineup.

Think about that.

Your American League MVP candidate has been asked to spend additional time in the outfield partly because the organization couldn’t adequately solve a roster problem that was obvious before Opening Day.

That’s not on Joe Espada.

That’s roster construction.

And that’s why, as the Astros evaluate everything following Brown’s departure, the organization needs to look beyond one person.

If Brown didn’t have complete control over baseball decisions, then Crane has to evaluate the entire process that produced this roster.

Who identified these players?

Who decided they were good enough?

Who chose not to pursue better alternatives?

Who believed the Astros could get through an entire season patching together the outfield with waiver claims, reclamation projects and players other organizations were willing to move on from?

Those questions matter because simply changing the general manager accomplishes very little if the decision-making structure surrounding him remains exactly the same.

Now the Astros enter one of the most important weeks of their season.

Their playoff fate could very well be determined by what happens over the coming days, and once again we’ll look toward the outfield and wonder whether anybody besides Yordan Alvarez can provide consistent offensive production.

Maybe Barrosa provides a spark.

Maybe one of the other options suddenly gets hot.

Maybe Houston finds another unlikely hero just when it needs one most.

But after an entire season of waiting for that to happen, “maybe” shouldn’t have been the plan.

Dana Brown is gone.

The Astros’ outfield problem isn’t.

And until Houston figures out why such an obvious weakness was allowed to remain unresolved for an entire season, changing the name on the general manager’s office won’t necessarily fix the bigger problem.

As the Astros begin this critical week, keep an eye on the outfield.

It may ultimately determine whether this remarkable comeback season ends in October—or ends wondering what might have been if the organization had simply fixed the problem everyone could see from the very beginning. What do you think Astros fans, let me know in the comments below.

1901
At South Side Park, the first-place White Sox treated 19,800 fans — the largest crowd the American League (in its first year as a major league) sees all season — to a thriller. In the bottom of the ninth, down 3-2 to the Boston Americans, catcher Billy Sullivan and pinch-hitter Nixey Callahan singled, and Callahan stole second to put ducks on the pond. Facing Cy Young, who was aiming to complete the game and take home his 29th win on the season, center fielder Billy Hoy singled in both runs, for a walk-off win.

1960
You have to respect the man’s beliefs, at least. Veteran pitcher Al Worthington was acquired from the Red Sox on August 29 to help with the stretch run of the season, but on this day he left the White Sox, stating that he couldn’t play for a team that cheated.

Worthington, a devoutly religious person, had heard rumors the Sox were stealing signs via a flashing light in the scoreboard relaying the upcoming pitch to hitters, and when manager Al Lopez wouldn’t confirm or deny the charge Worthington left. He remained in the White Sox organization, playing in the minor leagues the next two years before the Reds selected him in the Rule 5 draft in November 1962.

From 1964-69 Worthington became one of the best relief pitchers in the American League, saving 102 games for the Minnesota Twins and winning 42 more.

In his short stint with the White So,x he appeared in four games with a 1-1 record and a 3.38 ERA.  

1962
White Sox pitcher and future Hall-of-Famer Early Wynn won his 299th career game, beating Washington, 6-3. Wynn threw a complete game, scattering nine hits with three strikeouts. It would be his last win of the the season, leaving him a win short of the 300-win milestone.

He would get a spring training invite from Chicago for 1963, but was cut. But Cleveland, the team Wynn had pitched for earlier in his career, picked him up and he got his coveted 300th win on July 13, winning 7-4 at Kansas City.

That 300th was Wynn’s last win in the major leagues.

1984
With 30,511 fans showing up to see the White Sox lose, 6-5, to the Angels, the club pushed past two million fans for the second straight year. In 1983, the White Sox drew 2,132,821 fans, marking this as the first time in Chicago city history a club had back-to-back years of more than two million in attendance.

This game pushed the White Sox to 2,024,093 in a season that would (barely) top the previous season, ending at 2,136,988 through the turnstiles.

1993
Breakout hurler Jason Bere tied a 73-year-old White Sox rookie record, with 13 strikeouts over eight innings of an 8-1 win against Boston. Bere tied righthander Frank Lange, who had a fairly brief run with the White Sox in the early 1910s.

Also on this day, pitcher Doug Lindsey arrived in Chicago from the Phillies as the player to be named later for Donn Pall (sent to Philly on September 1).

2022
White Sox third baseman Yoán Moncada did something that had never been done before in the American League, as part of a 14-2 rout by the club over the A’s in Oakland.

Moncada went 5-for-5 with five RBIs for the second time in the season, which hadn’t happened in the AL since RBIs became an official statistic in 1920. Moncada had two home runs and a double among his hits, and finished the game with 12 total bases.

He did it the first time on June 15 against the Tigers, when he went 5-for-6 with five RBIs.

Also in this game came back-to-back home runs leading the contest off by the White Sox. Elvis Andrus and Moncada both went deep off of J.P. Sears to start the rout.

For most teams, a historic collapse at the plate would be a devastating way to end a season. For the Pirates, it’s progress.

The Pirates posted a .768 OPS in the first half of 2026. Only the Dodgers had a better mark across the majors. Since the All-Star Break, however, the Pirates have a .651 OPS. Only the Angels have a worse mark. That 117-point drop amounts to a tOPS+ of 79 in the second half of the season, which is tied for the largest drop in OPS in Major League history, according to Baseball Reference.

Expectations were fairly low in Pittsburgh heading into 2026. FanGraphs projected the Pirates for a 78-win season; Baseball Prospectus projected them for 80. It seemed unlikely this would be another 100-loss atrocity like 2021 and 2022, but there was a sense the organization had stalled, with still some distance between them and .500.

The few bright spots that existed on the roster were mostly limited to the pitching staff, whether that be Paul Skenes or the other young hurlers looking for their Skenes-ian break. The outlook for the lineup, meanwhile, remained bleak. Spencer Horowitz was the only batter on the 2025 squad to post a wRC+ greater than 100, in what was the second worst lineup in the majors. And while some new additions were coming off decent years, the offseason was marked more by the batters they didn’t land than the ones they did. The Pirates as a team have posted just one above average season at the plate by wRC+ since the days of Barry Bonds. Offense just isn’t something that tends to exist in Pittsburgh.

Then the season started. And the Pirates hit. And they hit, and they hit, and they hit some more. They scored 153 runs in April — the third most runs they’ve scored in a month this century. That was only the beginning. They posted a 110 wRC+ in May and followed it up with a 118 wRC+ in June. They were swinging at strikes, working counts, drawing walks, and hitting the ball hard. Pretty much anything a team can do well at the plate, they were doing it.

Batting coach Matt Hague told reporters in April they want to be both consistent and dynamic at plate.

“They’re bringing [pitchers] into their zones,” Hague said of his batters. “Our messaging the first couple months, including Spring Training, has been getting our best swings off. A lot goes into that, but when we’re going well, that’s what’s happening.”

The Pirates surged into the All-Star break and finished the first half with a 110 wRC+. Their 516 runs scored was tied with the Nationals for most in the majors. It wouldn’t have been ridiculous to claim the league’s best offense belonged to Pittsburgh. We’d never seen anything like it in Ben Charington’s tenure as general manager:

Of course, the plot also shows what happened next. The offense vanished when the Pirates returned from the break. Their walk rate dropped, their strikeout rate exploded, and the power was nowhere to be found. They’ve scored the third fewest runs in the second half, and their 79 wRC+ ranks next to last behind only the Angels.

The most notable change comes from the absence of Konnor Griffin, who landed on the injured list just as he was getting hot. Griffin entered the season as the unanimous number one prospect in baseball. The Pirates seemed to agree, giving him a 9-year, $140 million extension before he made his debut. Griffin struggled initially after getting the call on April 3. That’s not surprising for a 19-year old, regardless of his prospect pedigree. But it was disheartening to see him hit .182/.247/.242 with a 30.1% strikeout rate over his first 20 days in the majors. Then in his first at bat on April 24 — his 20th birthday — Griffin hit his first Big League homer.

Griffin picked up two more hits and a stolen before the day was done. He picked up two more hits and another stolen base the next day as well. From there, he never looked back. Griffin hit .314/.368/.472 (129 wRC+) while stealing 16 of 17 bases in 40 games after turning 20, more than justifying his tip-top prospect status. 

Then the bad news: Griffin tore a ligament in his finger while diving for a ball in early July. He would miss two months, and only returned just last week. Not only was it a blow to Griffin’s development and his chances at Rookie of the Year, but Pirates shortstops posted a 60 wRC+ in his absence.

The Pirates also lost quite a bit when Ryan O’Hearn landed on the injured list in late July with a quadriceps strain. O’Hearn hadn’t necessarily recaptured his brilliance from the first half of 2025, when he posted a 136 wRC+ for the Orioles. But he’d been perfectly solid after signing a two-year deal over the offseason, slugging 17 home runs and extending the middle of the Pirates’ lineup. O’Hearn split time between a couple positions but took most of his reps in right field. Pirates right fielders have hit .172/.280/.279 (59 wRC+) in his absence.

Horowitz, often the only productive batter in Pittsburgh in 2025, has also seen his season derailed by injury. He’d been business as usual with a 132 wRC+ through June 24, putting together a third-straight season as one of the best platoon bats in the majors. But he landed on the injured list with a hamstring strain, then got hit in the head by a pitch on a rehab assignment and suffered a concussion. Horowitz finally returned on August 2, but has yet to get going, with just one extra base hit (a double) and a 13 wRC+.

Injuries don’t quite explain what’s happened to Bryan Reynolds. The Pirates veteran outfielder entered the year looking to bounce back from a poor (by his standards) showing in 2025. There was some talk his best days were behind him, now on the wrong side of 30. But bounce back doesn’t begin to describe Reynolds’ performance early in 2026. He was a top 20 hitter by wRC+ (141) at the All-Star Break, with a 14.7% walk rate and 47.3% hard hit rate. Not only had he alleviated concerns of age-related decline, this was maybe the best Reynolds had looked since 2021. Unfortunately, it didn’t last. He started striking out a ton after the break. And when he finally cut down on the whiffs in August, the power disappeared. I’m not sure there’s any specific culprit, other than the natural flow of a baseball season. And that very well may be the case, as Reynolds over the last few weeks is back to scorching the baseball. The results are starting to return.

Not everyone in Pittsburgh has suffered this second-half affliction. Oneil Cruz hasn’t missed a beat since returning from a broken hand that kept him out for two months. He’s having his best-ever season with a 124 wRC+, even if the 34.7% strikeout rate looks a bit ugly. Brandon Lowe has had some ups-and-downs in his first year in Pittsburgh, but he’s on something of a hot streak at the moment, and his 115 wRC+ is right at his career norm. There’s a variety of other prospects and utility players who have had good and bad stretches throughout the season, and not everyone fits into this surge-and-slump narrative.

The Pirates enter the final stretch of 2026 with an exactly average 100 wRC+. They’ve done it in an odd fashion, and it won’t feel great if their slump continues and winds up as the final note of the season. But there’s a real chance they could finish the year with a net-positive group of hitters for the first time since 2014 and the second time since 1991. That’s something.

The Pirates themselves will see this as a consolation prize, of course. They’re firmly out of the playoff picture and two games below .500. But looking ahead, there’s more to feel good about than there was at this time last year. Griffin was as good as advertised when healthy and already looks like one of the best young players in the game. Reynolds bounced back and could remain productive at the plate into his mid-30s. Cruz took an impressive step forward and is only just entering his prime years. That’s a solid core on its own, and the front office did well to supplement them with a competent mix of promotions, signings, and trades. 

To me, the collapse after the break reads more like a coincidence, with a few poorly timed injuries to key players, rather than a total erasure of their early excellence. I think they’re closer to that first half performance than the second going forward. That’s not to say I think the Pirates should expect to have the best offense in the majors in 2027. But they also don’t need to. They’re going to finish the year with a top 10 pitching staff, and they’ll be projected for a top 10 staff again next year. If they continue to pursue productive veterans batters, and continue to do well developing their prospects, they’ll have a well-rounded and competitive roster. Sure, the late slump makes this season feel like a missed opportunity. But that the Pirates were even in a position to collapse is something close to progress.

The Braves survived their first of two critical series against the Phillies, essentially, by winning two of four games on the road to keep their NL East lead at four games.

Before the Phillies return the favor with a three-game series in Atlanta this weekend, the Braves host the Tampa Bay Rays for a three-game series which begins Tuesday at 7:15 p.m. ET.

The Rays remain a true baseball anomaly, 23rd league-wide in payroll this season at $107.3 million, and yet once again positioned to make the playoffs.

Although Tampa Bay has less than half of the Braves’ payroll, it enters a half-game ahead of Atlanta in terms of record (85-58 to 85-59) and is essentially a playoff lock to make its sixth playoff appearance in the last eight years.

The Braves will give the ball to AJ Smith-Shawver (0-1, 7.13 ERA) for the series opener, hoping he can find the improved form that has evaded him since his delayed start to this season upon his return from Tommy John surgery.

After the right-hander had a 3.86 ERA in nine starts last season before sustaining the elbow injury, he has struggled this season.

That’s particularly been the case in his last three starts since returning from Gwinnett. He hasn’t lasted more than five innings in any of those starts, allowing a combined 12 runs on 16 hits over 13 1/3 innings (8.10 ERA).

Facing a Rays team which leads the majors in batting average (.260) but is 13th in slugging percentage (.403) will present an interesting test as Smith-Shawver’s time to prove his worth as a playoff roster inclusion dwindles.

He’s made one career start against the Rays last April, taking a no-decision after allowing two runs on six hits over five innings.

The Braves aren’t facing all of the heart of the Rays’ rotation in this series like they did against the Phillies, but there aren’t many holes in a Tampa rotation which ranks fourth in the majors in starting pitcher ERA (3.61).

Right-hander Freddy Peralta (7-11, 4.96), acquired from the New York Mets earlier this month ahead of the trade deadline, will start the series opener for the Rays.

Peralta, acquired last offseason from the Milwaukee Brewers, didn’t meet expectations with the Mets, posting a 4.99 ERA in 22 starts. That hasn’t exactly changed with Tampa, with a 4.86 ERA and 2-2 record in his first six starts with the Rays.

His WHIP, though, has dramatically improved with Tampa Bay, falling from 1.48 in New York to 1.02 with the Rays. A much better strikeout-to-walk ratio (27 to 6 compared to 113 to 48) has certainly played a role in that.

Peralta, who spent his entire career with the Brewers before this season, is 6-2 with a 3.83 ERA in 11 career appearances (10 starts) against the Braves. He faced Atlanta twice earlier this season when with the Mets, going 1-0 with two earned runs allowed over a combined 9 2/3 innings.

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It’s an AL West showdown tonight with the Seattle Mariners home favorites over the Texas Rangers ahead of the 9:40 p.m. ET first pitch at T-Mobile Park on Tuesday, Sept. 8.

My top Rangers vs. Mariners predictions and MLB picks are calling for plenty of runs during a Texas upset tonight. 

Who will win Rangers vs Mariners today: Rangers moneyline (45.5%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The Seattle Mariners rank last in wOBA against left-handed pitchers. At 24th in the overall metric and 23rd in xwOBA over the past two weeks, I like taking a shot on the underdog Texas Rangers tonight.

Texas is fourth in wOBA and fifth in xwOBA while averaging 5.3 runs per game during the same stretch, after all.

Plus, Seattle righty Bryce Miller has been incredibly inconsistent, allowing three or more runs in seven of his past nine starts while posting an alarmingly high 4.70 xERA and 5.35 xFIP.

As a result, I like the Texas moneyline to 48.8%.

COVERS INTEL: Miller has negative pitch values on each of his five most-frequent offerings over his past nine starts.

Rangers vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (55.6%)

Alongside the highlighted path to success for the Texas offense, Seattle will also chip in runs tonight.

Rangers lefty Cody Bradford missed all of the 2025 season, and he’s struggled to a 5.48 xERA and 5.16 xFIP across six starts since returning to the majors on Aug. 5. Opposing hitters have teed off for a high-end .380 wOBA and 18.0% blast-contact rate against him, too.

Finally, both teams have trended to the Over, so I recommend this pick up to 57.4%.

Rangers vs Mariners home run prediction: Joc Pederson (16.7%)

With Miller allowing a massive .279 ISO and 2.33 HR/9 to left-handed hitters over his highlighted nine-start run, Rangers slugger Joc Pederson jumps out as a home-run target tonight, considering he's hit 24 bombs against righties with a .248 ISO.

Rangers vs Mariners weather

The forecast calls for clear, sunny skies with game-time temperatures in the mid-60s and falling slightly into the high 50s by the late innings, and a moderate 5-8 mph wind will blow in from left-center field at T-Mobile Park tonight.

Rangers vs Mariners odds

• Moneyline: Rangers 46.5% | Mariners 57.4%
• Run line: Rangers +1.5 (63.6%) | Mariners -1.5 (40%)
• Over/Under: Over 8 (52.4%) | Under 8 (52.5%)

Rangers vs Mariners trend

The Rangers have hit the Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.75 Units / 54% ROI), and the Mariners have played to the Over in 30 of their last 50 games (+12.40 Units / 22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Mariners.

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Emmet Sheehan had such a successful first start back with the Dodgers that he earned at least another, after striking out 10 Cincinnati Reds in Monday night’s win at Dodger Stadium, his first start in the majors in five weeks.

“There was a lot of stuff going down, and try to figure stuff out in a little less stressful place, which was nice,” Sheehan told reporters Monday night, as shown on SportsNet LA. “Just getting my delivery locked in, and really just making sure I’m hammering it during the week so when I go out there I can just go out and compete, which I feel I was doing tonight.

Sheehan struggled trying to find consistency in the first four months of the season, with his ERA (5.29) not matching his xERA (3.99) thanks in part to a team-leading 20 home runs at the time through his first 20 starts. He was optioned to Triple-A after a three-homer loss to the Boston Red Sox on August 2.

He did not allow a home run to any of the 69 batters he faced with Oklahoma City in August. After allowing two runs in a planned brief outing in his first game back in Triple-A, Sheehan reeled off three straight excellent starts, totaling 24 strikeouts and only one run allowed in 17 1/3 innings, which earned Sheehan pitcher of the week and pitcher of the month awards in the Pacific Coast League.

Sheehan allowed a home run to Elly De La Cruz on Monday but almost nothing else, permitting only two more singles and a walk, with 10 strikeouts among his 21 batters faced. Sheehan will start again on Sunday against the Marlins in Miami.

Sheehan got the win on Monday, and replaced Bobby Miller, who earned the win on Sunday night with three innings of bulk relief in his first major league action since 2025. Miller was activated Saturday off the injured list after missing the first five months with shoulder and back maladies.

Barring another injury, this keeps Miller in the minors until potentially the final week of the regular season, depending on what the Dodgers might need to fill in as they both close out the regular season and prepare for the postseason. The Dodgers in the final weekend of 2025 called up Andrew Heaneyand Landon Knack, for instance.

I have long thought the the acquisition of a superstar player is among the most exciting experiences a fan can have. In a single move, teams can change, and a franchise’s trajectory can shift significantly, perhaps for years t0 come. Today’s entry in our daily birthday series dives in on one of the more exciting such moves in recent memory for the Yankees.

Already an established ace, Gerrit Cole donned the pinstripes for the first time, and didn’t miss a beat. Although his tenure began in a shortened season, and he has missed some time due to injury, Cole has turned in a handful of elite seasons, and doesn’t seem to have lost a step as he progresses into his late-30s. A Yankee fan growing up, and now among the franchise’s finest performers on the mound, Gerrit Cole has become a staple in the Bronx.

Gerrit Cole
Born: September 8, 1990 (Newport Beach, CA)
Yankees Tenure: 2020-pres.

Growing up in California, and clearly developing into a stud on the mound, Cole was actually first drafted by the Yankees out of high school, late in the first round of the 2008 draft. Electing to play college ball at UCLA instead, Cole was drafted again in 2011, this time with the first overall pick, by the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The 6-foot-4 right-hander quickly ascended through the Pirates’ system, and was a top-10 prospect in baseball prior to his debut. After being drafted in 2011, Cole made his Major League debut about two years late, on June 11, 2013. His presence on the mound was immediately apparent, as he tossed over 100 innings across 19 starts in his rookie season to the tune of a solid 111 ERA+. As one of the top pitching prospects in the sport, Cole was already delivering, and that season would stand as a great precursor to the career ahead of him.

The righty would ultimately pitch five total seasons in Pittsburgh, which saw him go from solid to elite as he developed in the big leagues. The high point with the Buccos came in 2015, when he posted a 2.60 ERA in 208 innings, good for a fourth-place finish in Cy Young voting and his first All-Star selection.

In January of 2018, Cole’s days in the Steel City came to a close, when he was dealt to the Houston Astros for a slew of prospects. Although he had already been an established top-notch pitcher, he found a different gear in Houston.

He was excellent in 2018, tossing just over 200 innings with a 2.88 ERA, with the added bonus of a skyrocketed strikeout rate as he was fanning more than 12 batters per nine innings. He made his second All-Star team, and was able to get his first taste of postseason ball since 2015.

Despite a good debut with the ‘Stros, he blew it out of the water in 2019. In that season, his 2.50 ERA led the league as he pitched a career-high 212.1 innings while amassing a whopping 326 strikeouts, the most by any pitcher in nearly two decades. In his final nine starts of that season, Cole struck out 110 batters in just over 60 innings, while managing a sparkling 1.61 ERA. He made another All-Star team, finished second in Cy Young voting, and had now established himself as one of the more consistent and dominant starters in the sport. Cole also get his most in-depth experience in the postseason, in a year the Astros ultimately lost Game 7 of the World Series.

After a not-entirely-pleasant send off from Houston, Gerrit Cole was finally hitting free agency. And, in December of 2019, the ace signed a nine-year, $324 million dollar deal to make him a Yankee for perhaps the rest of his career.

His first season in the Bronx was the unfortunate shortened 2020 campaign, though he still pitched quite well, posting a 151 ERA+ in his 12 starts. Come 2021, however, Cole started a run that further settled him in as a premier workhorse for the Yankees. From each season across 2021-23, Cole started at least 30 games, while posting a cumulative 3.13 ERA with a 3.19 FIP to back it up. His run peaked in a 2023 season that saw him lead the AL in ERA, innings pitched, and WHIP, leading to his first career Cy Young Award. At age 32 and in his fourth season with the Yankees, Cole had never been better.

In 2024, the injury big began to bite, as he started just 17 games and worked fewer innings than he ever had (excluding 2020). His performance was still good, though maybe a bit down by his lofty standards. Cole would, however, turn it on at the right time. In five postseason starts, he managed a 2.17 ERA, which included just two earned runs against him in 12.2 innings of work in that year’s World Series.

Although the series did not end happily for New York, Cole’s performance had nothing to do with it. After that shortened season, that dreaded injury bug came back with a vengeance, as Cole would miss the entire 2025 season, and the beginning of ‘26 recovering from Tommy John surgery.

He would return in May of this year, and despite some rust needing to come off, he’s largely been the same dependable ace he has been since arriving. As the Yankees head toward another postseason appearance, Cole’s experience and ability to dominate on the mound will surely be leaned upon this October, and likely some more to come.

Although there are still two seasons left on his nine-year deal, calling his enormous contract with the Yankees anything other than a success would be hard to picture at this point. If he can stay healthy, there’s little reason to doubt he’ll continue to be a vital piece of the Yankees roster.

Here’s to wishing the six-time All-Star a happy 36th birthday!