Category: Baseball

Before the season started, the Royals thought they would be competing for a playoff spot come September. Before the season started, I thought the Royals would be competing for a playoff spot come September. Before the season started, ZiPS and PECOTA and most of you thought the Royals would be competing for a playoff spot come September.

I say this to point out that when J.J. Picollo indicated Monday evening that the Royals had believed they were going to compete in 2026, they weren’t alone and they weren’t unreasonable for believing it. Some of what happened to the Royals this year was predictable: Jonathan India providing no value, Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic getting hurt, Salvador Perez declining. Heck, you could go arm-by-arm in the bullpen – by far the worst unit on the team – and reasonably think that each pitcher might not be good. What ended up happening was that none of the bullpen arms were good. That was, of course, always a possibility. But it was never a high-probability outcome.

Go back to that ZiPS projection, and the 50th percentile outcome for this relief unit was 3.1 fWAR. Instead, they’ve been worth -3.5, by far the worst in baseball. If I go through and look at the 20th-percentile individual outcomes, I get to about something in the -1.5 to -2.0 range. That means the likelihood of the Royals bullpen being this bad was something less than a one-in-five chance. I’d guess it was even less than a one-in-ten chance.

But it did happen, and how the Royals are responding to it is…concerning to say the least.

The Royals have veered further and further from the ideal

The Royals said upfront that they viewed 2023 as an evaluation season. At the end of the year, Picollo was very open and honest about how the Royals viewed the team. They felt they had determined Bobby Witt Jr. was absolutely the shortstop of the future; they believed Kyle Isbel could be the starting center fielder because of his defense. But they also knew that they desperately needed at least one outfield bat, some relievers, and some starting pitching help. That offseason, they went out and added Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Chris Stratton, Will Smith, Nick Anderson, and Hunter Renfroe. They made it to the ALDS in 2024.

After 2024, the Royals were a bit more cagey about what they needed to do to get over the hump. They made an effort to add a different outfield bat, but didn’t find anyone. They went out and got Carlos Estévez to bolster a bullpen that needed help, but they did nothing to address a rotation that had, admittedly, been very good but had also avoided any injuries outside Michael Wacha’s broken toe. Somewhat predictably, they suffered a setback that year and finished only 82-80, still above .500 but out of first place. Notably, they significantly improved after acquiring starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen and outfield bat Mike Yastrzemski, who played better than expected.

After 2025, they got even cagier. We all knew at that point that the Royals needed an outfield bat and some bullpen depth to make a run in 2026. They made it clear they weren’t likely to spend money to get it, though, even if they left open the possibility they might. Some people, including those with the team, felt the Royals could accomplish their goals by dealing some of their starting pitching depth. Othersamong us felt that the team would need as much pitching depth as it had. Even that proved to be too conservative, though the Royals have done a very credible job of covering their starting pitching injuries with guys like Randy Dobnak and Luinder Avila (who most of us had in the bullpen) doing competent work.

The point, however, is that the Royals needed an outfield bat and they needed to spend money to do it but the team wasn’t going to. The only major free agent acquisition the Royals made all offseason was signing Lane Thomas, whom they signed for $5.5 million. Later, they swung a trade to add Isaac Collins and Nick Mears for Angel Zerpa. These were both exceptionally smart moves, but they weren’t enough, and we all knew it. My best hope was that the Royals were planning to try and tread water until the deadline, when they could try and work some magic again.

They’re in full denial mode now

That brings us to yesterday, when the Royals declined to trade Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Alex Lange, Daniel Lynch IV, John Schreiber, or Starling Marte. When Picollo was asked by Star writer Sam McDowell why the team felt they could compete next year, Picollo’s answer was telling:

“Well, the same belief we had this year. We know who our catchers are, we know who our first baseman is. I think [Michael] Massey and [Nick] Loftin have done a great job at second base. We know who our shortstop is, who our third baseman is. Isaac Collins has come around, Jac Caglianone is playing well. Kyle Isbel plays good defense and understands his role as an offensive player. So when you go around the field, we’re not a rebuilding team. And then, when you look at what Wacha and Lugo have given us? And Noah Cameron?”

As I said at the top, the Royals weren’t wrong to think they could compete this year. But to look at how the season has played out and think that the reasons you thought they could compete this year are the reasons that they can compete next year is… wild.

He names essentially the entire idealized position-player group, plus three starting pitchers. That’s 13 players out of a 26-man roster. He went on to acknowledge the injuries mean there aren’t really any other pitchers they can rely on.

So, let me get this straight: the Royals went into the last offseason with most of a starting lineup, 7-9 starting pitchers they felt good about when healthy, 3 relievers they thought would be excellent, and 6-9 relievers they thought might be able to offer something. They will head into this upcoming offseason with most of a starting lineup (like last year, they still need one more bat to cover the decline of players like Salvador Perez and Isbel, to say nothing of possible regression in other players), three starting pitchers (two of whom are on the decline and one of whom still needs to prove that his rookie season wasn’t entirely a fluke), and zero reliable relievers. But they’re going to compete next year for the same reason they thought they could this year (when they absolutely did not compete.)

Make it make sense!

There are some who will point out that the Royals’ salary obligations for 2027 are drastically reduced compared to what they had this year and that they will have lots of money to throw around. But even if they had infinite money to throw around, it’s hard to imagine one team adding 3-5 starting pitchers, 6-10 relievers, and at least one competent hitter in a single offseason. Mostly because it’s hard to imagine that many viable free agents being available and all succeeding in a single offseason. Ask the 2025 Mets about it, and they didn’t go for even half that much!

We also know the Royals can’t just trade to fill all of those holes because if they had anyone in the upper levels of the minors worth trading, Omaha fans wouldn’t be doomed to watch Scott Barlow, Scott Alexander, and Anthony Gose pitching out of their bullpen right now while Abraham Toro, Brandon Drury, and Kevin Newman get regular time in the lineup. They could possibly trade one of Ramon Ramirez or Blake Mitchell as the headliner of a single deal, but they don’t really have the prospects to fill in such a deal around those guys.

Picollo said, and I believe him, that the interest in Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo was underwhelming. Teams want guys with “stuff” at the trade deadline; that’s why the Red Sox gave up Marcelo Mayer for Erik Miller and not Daniel Lynch IV. So maybe it makes sense not to have traded them. But what doesn’t make sense is to think that they’ll somehow help your team to compete in 2027 because three starting pitchers is, famously, not enough starting pitchers.

Maybe Picollo learned somewhere along the way that being open and honest with the fans and media, as he was throughout 2023, is a bad way to do business. Maybe the Royals know something we don’t about how they’re going to be able to solve all their problems next season*. Or maybe he only felt he could be honest that year because he knew he had the backing from the team owner to actually take the time to identify and spend the money to fix the problems with the team. Maybe he knows he no longer has those things and that the only guarantee is that he’s eventually going to be fired for not being able to work miracles within the constraints that have been set upon him, but if he wants to have a hope of getting hired as a GM somewhere else someday, he can’t throw the boss under the bus so he has to make himself look stupid instead.

*No, it’s not that there won’t be a 2027 season. MLB owners are not united or liquid enough to lock players out for an entire season. The same reasons they’ve never been able to break the union before haven’t changed. Most, if not all, of the 2027 baseball season will be played as scheduled with the MLBPA players we root for.

We might never know the answer to what’s going on with Picollo and the front office. But I can tell you one thing: sitting here on August 4, 2026, there is no apparent, realistic path to the Royals competing in 2027. Unless the Royals really do know something no one else does, this offseason could be even more painful and frustrating than the trade deadline was. I’d say 2027 could be more painful, too, but we should all be able to see it coming this time.

Up to now, everything you’ve read here about the Cubs’ Trade Deadline deals has been basic facts about the players themselves and what the Cubs gave up for them.

Let’s do a bit of next-day analysis.

Before I get to what roster changes are likely coming, here’s some analysis of the Cubs deals from Stephen J. Nesbitt of The Athletic, who wrote that the Cubs were a “winner”:

Coming out of the All-Star break, the Cubs’ rotation lined up like this: Colin Rea, Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon and David Peterson. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer overhauled that group ahead of the trade deadline, adding a pair of two-time All-Star right-handers, Clay Holmes and Kevin Gausman, and lefty Braxton Garrett. The Cubs, who also have Edward Cabrera and Ben Brown on the injured list, should be able to flex some of their surplus starters into relief roles in the postseason.

Tyrone Taylor is another rangy outfield option for the Cubs, but he also has hit left-handed pitching well this season, which could come in handy in October. All of that adding came at a significant cost to the Cubs’ farm system. The departure of Jefferson Rojas, in particular, will sting. But the major-league roster is undeniably better because of it, and, in the midst of a division race, that matters most.

I concur with this. As I’ve noted elsewhere, my grade for this is a solid “B”.

Where will these players fit in and what roster moves need to be made to add them?

First, the Cubs announced all these trades by press release Monday. Let’s look at them in chronological order.

Gausman and Garrett were added to the 40-man roster and it was full. Garrett was then optioned to Triple-A Iowa, where he’s likely to stay the rest of the year. He’s coming off Tommy John surgery and is likely a project for 2027.

Zeferjahn was acquired, in part, for Moisés Ballesteros, so that deleted one player (Ballesteros) from the 40-man and added one (Zeferjahn).

When Holmes and Taylor were added, Luke Little was designated for assignment.

Looking at the Cubs’ 40-man roster as of this morning, there appear to be 41 players listed (excluding guys on the 60-day IL).

So what’s going to happen here?

Gausman hasn’t officially been announced as the starter for Thursday, but that seems likely. He doesn’t have to be added to the 26-man active roster until then, and at that point I would think that Jake Woodford will be designated for assignment, opening a slot on the active roster and also the 40-man, reducing it to 40.

When Taylor is activated, Kevin Alcántara should be headed back to Iowa. I’m happy for Alcántara hitting his first MLB home run on Monday.

Holmes and Zeferjahn likely replace Tyler Ferguson and Antoine Kelly on the active roster. Both Kelly and Ferguson have options remaining so they’ll both be sent to Iowa.

What isn’t clear at this point is whether Holmes will be used as a starter — which he’s been for the Mets the last two years — or in relief. Holmes was the Yankees closer from 2022-24 and did a decent job, posting a 2.84 ERA over 195 appearances, with 74 saves in 89 opportunities (13 of the blown saves were in 2024).

Thus after all of these deals and moves, the active roster should settle this way (before anyone returns from the injured list):

Catchers (2): Miguel Amaya, Carson Kelly
Infielders (6): Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, Pedro Ramirez, James Triantos
Outfielders (5): Seiya Suzuki, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ, Tyrone Taylor, Michael Conforto
Starting pitchers (5): Javier Assad, Matthew Boyd, Kevin Gausman, Shōta Imanaga, David Peterson
Relief pitchers (8): Aaron Civale, Clay Holmes, Colin Rea, Ryan Rolison, Caleb Thielbar, Trent Thornton, Jacob Webb, Ryan Zeferjahn

If Holmes is used in the rotation, then Assad would likely go to the bullpen.

Or it could be different! If you have other roster ideas, let us know in the comments.

Lastly, if you’re wondering, here are the uniform numbers for the newest Cubs:

It’s not hard to imagine the stifling amount of pressure that Matt Olson faced upon his arrival in Atlanta ahead of the 2022 season.

Replacing the face of the franchise, one of the most consistent hitters in baseball, and a guy whom the fanbase badly wanted to retain: Freddie Freeman. Oh, and Olson was returning to his hometown on top of that.

It would be enough to reduce the average person to dust.

But Matt Olson is not an average person, as he’s proven time and time again during his five-year Braves tenure. It’s hard to think of many days where Olson has looked like he’s felt any sort of pressure whatsoever.

All he’s done is been an everyday first baseman — yet to miss a start in a Braves uniform and set to tie Stan Musial for the eighth-longest consecutive games played streak in major league history on Tuesday with consecutive game number 895 — and fill that void in an incredibly capable manner.

With his homer in Friday’s 6-2 win over the Nationals, Olson reached the 29-homer mark for the fifth time in as many seasons in Atlanta. But after he stopped at 29 each of the last two seasons, he blew past it with another homer Saturday and one more on Sunday for good measure.

His 31 homers are now tied for fourth-most in the majors and his 58 extra-base hits are one off the major-league lead held by Yordan Alvarez.

He’s now up to 177 homers as a Brave. With the pace he’s on, it’s entirely possible he breaks the franchise record of 190 homers in the first five seasons set by Hall of Famer Eddie Mathews.

He’s also second among active first basemen in OAA (32), which is positioning-neutral, while being first in both UZR (23) and DRS (91) (which credit positioning to the player).

“He’s become one of the best players in the game, when you take everything into consideration,” Braves manager Walt Weiss said earlier this week about Olson. “He changes the game on defense and he obviously changes the game in the (batter’s) box. He’s a leader in that clubhouse and he posts every day.”

Over nine full major league seasons, Olson has been a four-time All-Star, three-time Gold Glove winner and one-time Silver Slugger honoree. Given the fact that he’s at 319 career homers and turns 33 next March, joining the 400-homer club seems totally in grasp and even the 500 club, which currently has just 28 members, could happen if he can continue at close to this pace.

And yet, it doesn’t seem that Olson gets a widespread level of attention nationally that a player of his magnitude would receive.

Part of that could be how he wants things. There hasn’t been a change in production at first base in the transition but there’s been a bit of one in character going from Freeman’s magnanimous personality to Olson, who seems quieter and unassuming.

It probably also didn’t help Olson’s perception coming up that he began his career on an Oakland Athletics (RIP) team which didn’t make much noise nationally.

Whatever the reason may be, Olson has flown under the radar throughout his major league career. Even this season, when he’s carried the Braves to a comfortable NL East lead through myriad injuries to starters, two extended absences from Ronald Acuña Jr. and through elbow discomfort he’s battled at times this season.

Maybe being a part of a deeper Braves postseason run — they still haven’t won a playoff series since he’s been here — could help that.

It doesn’t seem to bother Olson, though. In fact, it may be exactly what he’s looking for, at least according to an interview with the AJC earlier this season when asked if he agrees that he is underrated.

“Honestly, my best answer is I don’t really care.”

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Rangers fans and fans across the country.

Well, this should be interesting…

What grade would you give the Texas Rangers for their trade deadline moves (or non-moves)?

Cast your vote below…

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The Arizona Diamondbacks are -112 moneyline favorites at home tonight against the San Diego Padres as Eduardo Rodriguez takes the mound.

My Padres vs. Diamondbacks predictions expect Arizona to come out on top behind E-Rod's recent dominance. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, August 4. 

Who will win Padres vs Diamondbacks today: Diamondbacks moneyline (-112)

Eduardo Rodriguez is throwing the ball extremely well right now for the Arizona Diamondbacks. The left-hander owns a 2.61 xERA over his last two starts while holding opponents to a mere 17.8% hard-hit rate.

The San Diego Padres counter with Randy Vasquez, who has been respectable with a 3.46 FIP over the last month. However, Vasquez rarely works deep, which should force the Padres bullpen into action early.

The bigger edge for Arizona comes at the plate. The Diamondbacks have been much better offensively in Phoenix, posting a 101 wRC+ at home compared to a mark of 87 on the road.

I don’t expect a blowout, but Arizona should give E-Rod enough support against a Padres offense that owns a poor 88 wRC+ against left-handers.

I’ll play this pick to -130.

COVERS INTEL: Rodriguez has pitched better at home, posting a 3.79 FIP at Chase Field, compared to a 4.40 FIP on the road in 2026. 

Padres vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+119)

The Under has a clear path tonight, even with this game being played in Arizona. Neither lineup is showing much power at the moment, with the Padres posting a brutal .076 ISO over the last week and the Diamondbacks sitting at just .126 during that same span.

The bullpen setup also supports a lower-scoring game. San Diego’s relief corps has been steady lately, while Arizona’s bullpen owns a strong 2.84 xERA over the last week. That matters with Vasquez unlikely to be in there long for the Padres.

Rodriguez’s recent weak-contact profile gives Arizona a solid run-prevention base, and if the bullpens continue to limit damage, this matchup has a strong path to stay Under 8.5.

I'll play this pick to +100.

Padres vs Diamondbacks weather

Weather outside Chase Field will be extremely hot tonight, with temperatures still around 107-109°F early before falling to 100°F later. Rain chances are very low, and winds should be light to moderate. However, if the roof is closed, the game will be played in controlled conditions with minimal weather impact.

Padres vs Diamondbacks odds

• Moneyline: Padres +104 | Diamondbacks -108
• Run line: Padres +1.5 (-178) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+170)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-127) | Under 8.5 (+122)

Padres vs Diamondbacks trend

The Diamondbacks have hit the moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+12.50 Units / 53% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Diamondbacks.

How to watch Padres vs Diamondbacks and game info

Padres vs Diamondbacks latest injuries

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With their season having gone off the rails long ago, David Stearns and the Mets did what they had to do at Monday's MLB trade deadline -- dealing nearly all of their pending free agents with value.

They even took it a step further, sending dominant setup man Luke Weaver (under contract through 2027) and versatile right-handed reliever Huascar Brazoban (under team control through 2029) to the Pirates and White Sox, respectively.

When it comes to assessing the players the Mets got back in their deadline sell-off, doing an instant analysis of it requires nuance -- especially when using prospect rankings as part of your determination of how good a return is.

Farm systems aren't apples to apples. For example, Tampa Bay's No. 15 prospect could be San Diego's No. 6. So blindly citing those rankings without additional context is pointless. 

Beyond that, most of the prospect lists people are referencing haven't been updated since before the season. 

In any event, without the benefit of Doc Brown's DeLorean, we can only work with the information we have right now. And using that info, it's fair to say that the process Stearns and the Mets used while making their most important trades -- getting infielder Sammy Stafura from the Pirates for Weaver and infielder Jefferson Rojas from the Cubs for Clay Holmes and Tyrone Taylor -- was sound. 

They clearly valued Stafura enough to zero in on him and pay down Weaver's salary. And getting Rojas, who is widely viewed as a top 100 prospect in baseball, felt like a big win.

Some of the other deals (Brazoban, Brooks Raley) felt a bit light when it came to the return, and another (Freddy Peralta) felt like the return was appropriate. But again, this is all a crapshoot. And the process was deliberate and sound.

In the aftermath of all the wheeling and dealing on Monday night, Stearns fielded some questions about whether the team considered seeking immediate help in these deals. His answer, unsurprisingly, was that they simply went after the best talent -- an answer that, like it or not, was the right one.

Now comes the hard part.

With the Mets attempting to rebound right away and contend in 2027, they're going to have to assemble a team from the bones of a roster whose locks for next season might be in the single digits, with the core of the club possibly looking like this:

Nolan McLean
Christian Scott
Devin Williams
Juan Soto
Carson Benge
A.J. Ewing
Francisco Lindor
Francisco Alvarez
Luis Torrens

A wild card here is Bo Bichette, who has a player opt-out after this season. If he exercises it, the Mets will have to find a new third baseman.

There's also the presence of Jorge Polanco (under contract through 2027) and Marcus Semien (under contract through 2028), which could create serious issues. Polanco, who has missed significant time due to an Achilles injury and can't play the field in his current state, has a .388 OPS and 9 OPS+ in 29 games this year. Even an OPS .250 points higher would be borderline unplayable. Semien has been better lately, but his offensive decline that started a few years ago has continued.

When it comes to the pitching staff, Stearns said the obvious before the deadline, which is that it would have to be strengthened this winter with external additions. McLean will help anchor it, and Scott appears likely to be a member. Sean Manaea and Zac Thornton could also factor in. But serious reinforcements will be needed to address a rotation whose struggles have been the root cause of the Mets' failures for two straight seasons.

The bullpen, now without Weaver and Brazoban, is a different story altogether.

Looking ahead to 2027, the relief corps is basically Williams and seven shrug emojis. It's possible Dedniel Núñez, back from Tommy John surgery, becomes part of the solution. Reed Garrett (another TJS recipient) could be back and help provide depth. Perhaps hard-throwing prospect Dylan Ross gets a chance down the stretch and puts his name in the mix. The same goes for Nate Lavender, who will get a shot in the final months of this season. But the back end of the 'pen will have to be rebuilt.

With all of this as a backdrop comes the added element that Stearns could be fighting for his job.

While giving Stearns a vote of confidence earlier this season and saying that the Mets were going to "live that contract out," Steve Cohen added that there were "no guarantees." And it's difficult to see Stearns getting another chance to right the ship if New York stumbles again in 2027.

Given that scenario, it seems fair to conclude that Stearns has to (and will be) more aggressive this offseason than he's been in the past. Being measured and surgical aren't bad traits to have, but it can also mean missing out on impact players -- especially when it comes to free agency.

That doesn't mean Stearns should turn his philosophy on its head and start acting like A.J. Preller. But more forcefulness is needed.

One way to do that would be to make an exception when it comes to long contracts for older players, throwing caution to the wind while launching an all-out pursuit of Tarik Skubal. There are exceptions to every rule, and Skubal -- a true ace who will be entering his age-30 season next year -- feels like one, as long as his medicals check out.

The Mets should also have their cake and eat it too, by signing Clay Holmes -- a damn good pitcher, New York-tested, and one of their clubhouse leaders -- back via free agency.

Beyond Skubal and Holmes, the list of free agent starters leaves a lot to be desired. So the Mets should act decisively here.

New York also needs a first baseman who is average or better at the position, a designated hitter, and -- depending on how Semien looks over the last two months of the season -- a second baseman.

That's where it might get tricky, since it's hard to envision the Mets entering next season with both Polanco and Semien viewed as non-factors. Maybe they try to thread the needle when it comes to Semien, with Rojas a potential option to replace him at some point during the year.

Then there's the aforementioned bullpen, which needs a lot of help via free agency and/or trade. Stearns might have to get creative via trade here, since -- as is the case with the free agent starters -- not many of the free agent relievers stand out.

Oh, and Stearns needs to hire a new manager. And possibly a new coaching staff. 

While the remainder of the regular season will serve as a tryout of sorts for some of the players trying to stake a claim for next season, this offseason could be a final audition for Stearns as he attempts to prove he has what it takes to turn this thing around and stabilize it.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Brewers fans and fans across the country.

Welcome back to another edition of our Reacts Survey! In this week’s poll, we’re asking fans to grade the Brewers’ trade deadline.

I already offered up my deadline grades yesterday, and after we posted individual polls for the Brewers’ two deadline day deals, we’re here to ask you to grade the overall deadline.

While there was plenty of speculation about Milwaukee potentially making a splashy move for the first time since acquiring CC Sabathia at the deadline in 2008, that never came to fruition. Instead, the Brewers made three low-key moves to improve their depth, particularly on the pitching side.

First, it was the acquisition of catcher Bo Naylor and right-handed reliever Codi Heuer on Saturday morning, with outfielder Blake Perkins and right-handed reliever Craig Yoho heading to Cleveland in the return. Heuer was then flipped to the Orioles for cash considerations yesterday, while Naylor has been put at Triple-A Nashville.

In Milwaukee’s two moves on Monday, they acquired pitchers Dustin May and JoJo Romero from the Cardinals in return for outfield prospects Alexander Frias and Josiah Ragsdale before acquiring pitcher Antonio Senzatela from the Rockies for pitcher Mark Manfredi and shortstop Juan Martinez.

How would you grade the Brewers’ trade deadline? Did it move the needle? Weigh in below and stay tuned for results later this week!

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Orioles fans and fans across the country.

Mike Elias waved the white flag on the 2026 season with the trade deadline moves. We can always hold out hope that the Orioles will put together some kind of great run and win just to spite him, in the vein of the classic baseball movie Major League. The odds were long even before the trade, however, and shipping out the players he shipped out has made the team worse and their chances of overcoming the 2.5 game deficit for a wild card spot even more slim.

If it’s not gonna be this year, when? This week’s poll question is focused on how you feel about that in the aftermath of yesterday’s detonation. Can enough be pulled together with the remaining talent in the organization, plus whatever Elias might manage to add over the offseason, to make it happen next year? Or is success more distant than even that?

I’m saying 2028, and I feel like I’m being excessively optimistic to even vote for that. The unfortunate pattern we have seen is that Elias does not have the strategic brains nor the tactical guts to either lay out long-term success or maximize short-term gains. I’d like to be wrong.

What do you think? Vote above and let us know in the comments below. I’ll have some more thoughts on the results on Friday or Saturday.

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After sweeping yesterday's props, we're looking to run it back tonight.

I found two Miami Marlins bats that I think are set for a big night. I also see Orioles slugger Pete Alonso getting the evening started on the right foot.

Here are my three favorite MLB player props for August 4.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Pete Alonso	Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI	-144
Griffin Conine	Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI	+103
Owen Caissie	1+ hits	-154

Pete Alonso Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-144)

You like delicious trends?

What if I told you that, when rated elite on Batters-Box, Baltimore Orioles slugger Pete Alonso goes Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI 62% of the time? That's across 137 elite-rated games over the last three seasons.

Want more? In 58 elite-rated home games during that same span, he's gone Over this prop nearly 70% of the time.

Tonight, Alonso draws a mouthwatering matchup against Los Angeles Angels right-hander Grayson Rodriguez, who has been tormented by right-handed hitters this season. Across the last 60 right-handed batters he's faced, they've produced a 51.2% hard-hit rate, 19.5% barrel rate, and 68.3% elevation rate. They also own a .386 xBA, .778 xSLG, and .341 ISO during that stretch.

Alonso has also been scorching over his last 10 games, posting a .300 batting average, .318 xBA, 146 wRC+, and .617 SLG. During that span, he's generated a 62.5% hard-hit rate, 15.6% barrel rate, and 84.7% contact rate.

Backing one of the hottest bats in this Orioles lineup is a must tonight. I'd play this down to -150, or look for a boost.

• Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MASN, ABTV

Griffin Conine Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+103)

It's another lovely day to back the son of "Mr. Marlin," Griffin Conine.

The Miami Marlins outfielder draws a great matchup against Atlanta Braves right-hander Grant Holmes. Not only does Conine carry an elite Batters-Box rating, but he also covers nearly 90% of Holmes' pitch mix.

Over his last 10 games, Conine has generated a 70% elevation rate, 60% hard-hit rate, and 15% barrel rate. During that span, he's also posted a 244 wRC+, .508 SLG, and .950 OPS.

Holmes, on the other hand, has struggled over his last three starts, recording a 5.52 ERA, 5.69 xERA, and 1.64 WHIP while allowing a 40% hard-hit rate and 14% barrel rate. The last 30 left-handed hitters he's faced have produced a .377 xBA, .661 xSLG, and .439 ISO.

I think Conine is in a great spot to go over his hits, runs, and RBI prop tonight. Don't pay juice for this one.

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: BravesVsn, MIAM

Owen Caissie 1+ hits (-154)

We just need the bare minimum from Owen Caissie, who has been just as hot as Conine.

Over his last 60 at-bats against right-handed pitching, Caissie has generated a 53% hard-hit rate and a massive 26.5% barrel rate. On top of that, he's posted a .667 SLG, 1.000 OPS, and .389 ISO.

Caissie enters Tuesday with an elite Batters-Box rating while carrying 53.3% arsenal coverage against Grant Holmes. Even with the lower arsenal coverage, he still owns excellent expected numbers against Holmes' secondary offerings.

Against sliders and curveballs, Caissie has produced at least a .263 xBA while generating 50% hard contact.

Right-handed hitters have also been feasting against Holmes. Over the last 30 right-handed batters he's faced, they've generated a 40% hard-hit rate, 12% barrel rate, and 64% elevation rate. During that stretch, they've also posted a .319 xBA, .614 xSLG, and .362 xwOBA.

Through 14 elite Batters-Box ratings this season, Caissie has recorded at least one hit 64.29% of the time. I'd play this down to -160, but if you can find the same price on Over 0.5 hits, runs, and RBI, I'd rather go that route.

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
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This week, Gabe and I talk about the Cardinals’ recent 3-7 stretch that the team has continued to endure out of the All-Star break; we also play everyone’s favorite game of “stay or go” with all of the primary names being discussed before Monday’s deadline; finally, we finish up with a destination for 1 Cardinals player and team match we’d like to see and 1 across the sport and team match.

We will visit with Jeff Jones of the Belleville News Democrat and potentially David Gasper of the Brewers’ daily podcast to talk about the deal that sent Dustin May and JoJo Romero to Milwaukee yesterday. We are also anticipating potential sit-downs with Cardinals Assistant GM Rob Cerfolio, Cardinals Broadcaster Stefan Carey, and St. Louis Post-Dispatch lead Cardinals beat writer Derrick Goold.

I apologize again for no transcript; I will get back to it next week. These last couple of weeks have been late-night, last-minute projects in order to keep up with the consistency of the show!

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-Thanks for listening

Were they necessarily the Trade Deadline moves that fans wanted or even predicted? Not really; catcher is still a concern and the bullpen blew up last night’s stirring rally. Still, one can’t pin complete complacency on the Yankees front office, which, in the end, went out there and acquired multiple pieces to boost their playoff chances. The addition of Heliot Ramos, much like the one of Luis García Jr., was with an eye on the now and another one in the future. Instead of focusing on rental pieces, the Yankees added two controllable pieces to strengthen a lineup absolutely reeling amidst many key absences.

Unlike García, though, Ramos comes to the Yankees partially looking to recapture the production levels that saw him make the All-Star Game in his first full season back in 2024. This isn’t to say the current version of Ramos isn’t a productive player and wouldn’t represent an improvement for the Yankees in their current dire outfield situation. It’s just that, unlike García, who is peaking at the moment, there is more to Ramos than the league-average 100 wRC+ he has put up in 74 games this season.

First things first, let’s start with what we know. Ramos is a lefty killer, a fact that in and of itself makes him a valuable acquisition to this increasingly lefty-heavy lineup, particularly with no Aaron Judge for who knows how long at this point. Even in this 2026 campaign, which has seen his worst numbers with the bat, Ramos has an .835 OPS versus southpaws, somewhat in line with his career numbers in 386 games:

vs. RHP: .249/.305/.389
vs. LHP: .279/.345/.501

Supposing he maintains that, which there is no reason for us to think we wouldn’t, the balance of this lineup when healthy grows a bit, but it might not be enough to justify the deal. After all, Henry Lalane is a pretty appealing (if risky) prospect who the Yankees parted with as the headlining piece of the package going to San Francisco.

Now we move on to expectations of improvements and how Ramos might go about recuperating his better form. A bit of a free swinger by nature, Ramos has suffered in 2026 from an increased tendency to smash the ball on the ground, subutilizing his natural skill of hitting the ball hard consistently. Ramos’ 53.6-percent ground-ball rate this season is not only well above league average, but a drastic shift from the 43.3-percent and 44.4-percent marks he put up in the two previous campaigns. In terms of quality of contact, his hard-hit rate in the 85th percentile is as good as it’s ever been. Unsurprisingly, this seems to strictly be an issue versus righties.

As consistently as Ramos hits barrels, though, with a career average above 11 percent, he also sprays the ball to all fields, but even by his standards, a Pull AIR rate under nine percent is surprisingly low—only 10 of his 25 extra-base hits have come to the pull side. While that can be tweaked, even at his best, García was not a pull-heavy hitter, far from it. What he can’t keep doing is hitting the ball on the ground as often as it has.

Now addressing how Ramos fits into this roster, similarly to the García deal, the initial adjustment is rather simple, but further questions arise once this team gets healthier. First and foremost, entrusting left field in Yankee Stadium to a subpar defender isn’t the ideal move. Against left-handers, the risk-reward should pay off, but the production needs to be better versus right-handers to justify an everyday role before the injured starters return. In the meantime, look for Ramos to take plenty of at-bats in right field with Jasson Domínguez now demoted.

Obviously, you take any hitting improvements you can get right now. Although considering the club had already added García, who figures to eventually eat into a lot of DH at-bats, it’s easy to become concerned about the potential return of Judge, Bellinger, and company. Is the club planning for worse as a form of due diligence or because time has passed and the outlook hasn’t gotten more positive as we’d hoped? For all of these reasons, now, more than ever, though, the Yankees need these reinforcements to hit the ground running.

Meet the Mets

The trade deadline came and went yesterday, and the Mets were very busy. After making additonal trades over the weekend, they completed their fire sale by shipping off Brooks Raley to the Phillies, Ben Rortvedt to the Dodgers, Luke Weaver to the Pirates, and Clay Holmes and Tyrone Taylor to the Cubs for five minor league players.

The Mets’ total haul from the deadline included thirteen players for eight departing players, nine of whom will now be in the Mets’ top 30 prospects.

“We added a tremendous amount of talent,” said David Stearns in a media availability immediately following the trade deadline yesterday afternoon. Stearns also said the Mets explored a strategy similar to the Blue Jays to add cost controlled starting pitching, but didn’t “line up” on prices.

“It’s the possibility of what he can do for us in the second half,” Stearns said of holding onto Luis Robert Jr.—the only player reportedly on the trading block who the Mets did not part with. “The understanding that there is a club option [$20 million], and the excitement of of still having here him here for the next two months of the season.”

John Harper of SNY gave the Mets a B- as an overall grade for their trade deadline, noting that scouts had a more favorable view of the Mets’ trades than prospect rankings alone might indicate, but criticizing David Stearns for not following in the Blue Jays’ steps by acquiring cost controlled starting pitching to signal a desire to compete in 2027.

Brooks Raley left the Mets with the second-lowest ERA in team history among pitchers with more than 100 appearances for the team.

“Although things didn’t work out as we all hoped, I want to thank the fans, my teammates, and the Mets organization for the love that they showed me. I want to wish everyone the best on their journey,” Freddy Peralta wrote in an Instagram post following his trade to the Rays.

Hudson Valley native Sammy Stafura, who the Mets acquired from the Pirates for Luke Weaver, grew up a huge Mets fan. “I’m ready to get after it, I am one of the biggest mets fans ever and will give the Mets everything I have,” he said. The Mets took on $2 million of Luke Weaver’s salary for this season and $6 million of next year’s salary to complete the deal.

Anthony DiComo of MLB.com provided more details about Jefferson Rojas, acquired from the Cubs for Clay Holmes and Tyrone Taylor, who now slots in as the Mets’ top prospect ahead of Jonah Tong, per MLB Pipeline.

With the departure of nearly a third of the team, the Mets made some promotions to fill out their now-depleted roster. Jefry Yan—he of the exuberant mound celebrations—was called up to the big leagues. Dedniel Núñez and Nate Lavender, who both spent time this season rehabbing injuries, were also recalled. To round out the new look pitching staff, Xzavion Curry was also brought back and Chayce McDermott, acquired from the Dodgers for Ben Rortvedt, will also be in the big league bullpen. To take Tyrone Taylor’s place on the position player side, Cristian Pache was called up.

Down on the farm, Mitch Voit was named Eastern League Player of the Week and MJ Melendez led the Syracuse Mets in home runs in July.

Around the National League East

Derek Hill hit a go-ahead grand slam in the seventh, as the Phillies bested the Nationals 6-3.

In addition to bolstering their bullpen by acquiring Raley from the Mets, the Phillies also added to their lineup by trading for Luis Arráez from the Giants.

The addition of Arraez means that the Phillies are shuffling their defensive alignment, which most notably includes Bryce Harper returning to the outfield.

Nolan Hoffman, who the Phillies designated for assignment, was acquired by the Royals for for minor league right-hander Manuel Colon and cash considerations.

The Braves added to their bullpen as well, acquiring left-handed reliever Brent Suter from the Angels for infielder Nacho Alvarez Jr. The Braves also made a couple of deals with other buyers, sending catcher Joey Bart to the White Sox for Duncan Davitt and Eli White to the Red Sox for Tyler Uberstine.

The Mets weren’t the only NL East team to deal a reliever to the Pirates. The Pirates got lefty Lake Bachar from the Marlins for three prospects. The Marlins were wheeling and dealing, acquiring Victor Vodnik from Rockies for Connor Norby and Aiden May. They also dealt Liam Hicks to the Rays for Brayden Taylor, Adrian Santana, and Jacob Kisting and traded reliever Braxton Garrett to the Cubs for minor league infielder Jonathon Long and minor league righty Jace Beck.

The whole NL East was part of the action at the deadline; the Washington Nationals traded All-Star pitcher Foster Griffin to the Guardians for a package of four players: lefties Will Dion and Josh Hartle, righty Kendeglys Virguez, and OF Nick Mitchell.

Around Major League Baseball

Predictably, there were a whole lot of trades yesterday around baseball. I will summarize many of them here, but you can check them all out with MLB.com’s handy tracker. And ESPN handed out grades for every trade.

The Angels received top shortstop prospect Arjun Nimmala, outfielder Eddie Micheletti and right-hander Angel Rivero from the Blue Jays for José Soriano. They also dealt Jo Adell to the Guardians for catching prospect Jacob Cozart and right-handed reliever Ryan Zeferjahn to the Cubs for catcher Moisés Ballesteros and righty Mason McGwire. At the buzzer, they sent veteran reliever Kirby Yates to the Pirates, completing Pittsburgh’s new look bullpen, in exchange for right-handed pitching prospect Kyle Robinson.

The Guardians also bolstered their lineup via a trade for Nathaniel Lowe from the Reds in exchange for pitching prospect Alejandro Rivera.

The Orioles were active sellers, trading three-time All-Star catcher Adley Rutschman to the division rival Red Sox for right-handed pitching prospects Anthony Eyanson and Kyson Witherspoon, outfielder Enddy Azocar, and catcher Carlos Narváez. They also dealt outfielder Taylor Ward to the Mariners for four players and reliever Tyler Wells to the Rays for righty Michael Forret.

The Blue Jays received infielder Josh Smith and righty Josh Stephan from the Rangers for left-hander Adam Macko and Spencer Arighetti from the Astros for Daulton Varsho, trying to lock in cost-controlled pitching to contend next year.

The Rockies traded Brenton Doyle to the White Sox for righty Mason Adams and infielder Carlos Vielma; the latter was a recent international signing by Chicago.

The Dodgers acquired Kris Bubic from the Royals for right-hander Carlos Duran.

The Giants dealt Robbie Ray to the Padres for shortstop Joniel Hernandez and righty Miguel Mendez. San Francisco also sent outfielder Heliot Ramos to the Yankees, providing the right-handed bat New York was seeking, in exchange for left-hander Henry Lalane and infielder Kaeden Kent. The latter is the son of newly-inducted Hall of Famer Jeff Kent.

The very busy Giants also dealt left-handed reliever Erik Miller to the also very active Red Sox for infielder Marcelo Mayer.

It wouldn’t be an MLB trade deadline without A.J. Preller doing A.J. Preller things. One of the last deals to be reported at the deadline was the Padres’ acquisition of Casey Mize and Gage Workman from the Tigers in exchange for Kash Mayfield and Jackson Wolf.

The Brewers got Dustin May and reliever Jo Jo Romero from the Cardinals in exchange for minor league outfielders Alexander Frías and Josiah Ragsdale. The Brewers also solidified their bullpen by obtaining Antonio Senzatela from the Colorado Rockies for left-hander Mark Manfredi and infielder Juan Martínez.

The Cardinals acquired left-handed reliever Caleb Ferguson in a trade with the Reds for $250,000 in international bonus space.

In an interesting non-trade, Jacob deGrom invoked his no-trade clause to block a deal by the Rangers, electing to stay in Texas.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Lukas Vlahos provided breakdowns on the trade returns for A.J. Minter, Huascar Brazobán, Brooks Raley, and Luke Weaver.

Linus Lawrence broke up the deadline monotony with the latest edition of Monday Stat Party.

This Date in Mets History

Joel Youngblood made history by getting hits for two different teams in two different cities on this date in 1982.

Giants 5, Rangers 1

• Well that was unpleasant.
• And there’s now a six game losing streak, which is especially unpleasant.
• Five errors allowed in the game.
• Five errors! Who does that?
• Well, the 2026 Texas Rangers, on trade deadline day, is the answer, it would appear.
• Cal Quantrill didn’t pitch badly. He pitched pretty well, in fact. He got a Quality Start.
• Quantrill gave up three runs, but only one was earned. That one was very earned, being a Jung Hoo Lee home run.
• Lee also homered off of Peyton Gray in the eighth. And he had a sacrifice fly off of Nolan Kingham, making his major league debut, in the ninth.
• But the two unearned runs came in the second, when the clown ball began, with Daniel Susac reaching on an E5 and then Brandon Nimmo turning a Drew Gilbert single into a triple (well, not technically a triple, it was a single and an E9, but you know what I mean), and then Osleivis Basabe hitting a sacrifice fly to score Gilbert.
• Hey, Osleivis Basabe! You remember him, right? He was part of the package sent to Tampa in the Nathaniel Lowe deal.
• He spent 31 games in the majors with the Rays in 2023, and has been in the minors since, until the Giants called him up last week.
• He’s got a 1274 OPS in five games for the Giants.
• Lowe was traded to the Guardians on deadline day, incidentally. He’s having a pretty good season as a platoon 1B/DH, slashing .286/.363/.522 against righthanders this season. He has all of two starts against lefty pitchers, and 25 plate appearances against lefties. He’s 2 for 24 against them with a walk. So yeah, best let him just face righthanders.
• You may be wondering why I’m dwelling on Osleivis Basabe and Nathaniel Lowe. The answer is, well, would you rather think about this game?
• The Rangers losing bums me out. Its less fun to write about the Rangers when they are playing badly than when they are playing well.
• The Rangers had all of seven hits on the day. That’s more than the Giants had, though. The Rangers also, as you probably guessed, had more errors than the Giants.
• I’m wondering if the Rangers have ever had a 1-7-5 box score line. Not enough to go dig around and spend the time to figure out the answer to the question, though.
• Over half of the Rangers hits were by Ezequiel Duran, who had an impressive 4 for 4 game, including a home run that kept the Rangers from being shut out.
• Having one player have more than half of your hits is generally not a good thing. For one, it means that your team probably didn’t have many hits, if one player who gets 4 or maybe 5 plate appearances in a game can have over half of them. For two, it means that you aren’t likely stringing hits together…it means your sequencing is off.
• At least the Astros lost.
• Cal Quantrill touched 95.1 mph with his sinker, averaging 93.5 mph, and hit 94.3 with his fastball, averaging 93.3 mph. Ben Peoples touched 96.9 mph with his fastball. Peyton Gray topped out at 92.6 mph with his fastball. Nolan Kingham’s fastball hit 96.6 mph.
• Ezequiel Duran’s home run was 110.2 mph. Evan Carter had a 104.3 mph groundout. Joc Pederson had a 101.1 mph single. Alejandro Osuna had a 1003. mph groundout. Corey Seager had a 100.2 mph groundout.
• Okay, let’s shake it off, hit re-set, start over. Bang the side a couple of times and see if that works.