Category: Baseball

Towards the end of the offseason, Paul Toboni went on a spree of waiver claims. In particular, he added quite a few bullpen arms to the mix. With the number of guys he got, odds are that at least one of them hits and makes an impact for the team. I took a look at my three favorite claims he made.

My favorite pitcher Toboni acquired from this process is Andre Granillo. While he technically was not a waiver claim, he came to the Nats as part of the waiver process. The Nats claimed pitcher George Soriano from the Braves on January 30th, then quickly DFA’d him on February 5th.

However, the Cardinals wanted to cut the waiver line to get Soriano. To do that, they just traded reliever Andre Granillo to the Nats in exchange for Soriano. Honestly, I do not really get this move from the Cardinals perspective because I think Granillo is the much better pitcher. In his first taste of MLB action last year, Granillo posted a 4.74 ERA, much better than Soriano’s 8.35 ERA. Granillo is also the younger pitcher.

In addition to mostly holding his own at the MLB level, Granillo was dominant in AAA. He posted a 1.29 ERA in 42 innings at the Triple-A level. Granillo’s bread and butter is a wipeout slider he throws well over half the time. At the MLB level, Granillo threw the slider 65% of the time. Despite the heavy usage, the pitch was still effective and got whiffs almost 35% of the time in the MLB.

Nats trade George Soriano to the Cardinals for Andre Granillo pic.twitter.com/wM0mCpLx2n

— Kev (@klwoodjr) February 10, 2026

While Granillo’s fastball sits at about 95 MPH, the quality of the pitch is not great, so he has to rely on that slider. However, that slider is good enough to make him a solid middle reliever. Granillo also showed an occasional changeup to lefties which had some promise. If that can become a real weapon, there could be higher leverage upside for the 25 year old.

I just think Granillo has everything you want in a waiver claim reliever. He dominated in the minors, is still young, has intriguing stuff, has minor league options and held his own at the MLB level. At worst, Granillo will be a solid up and down relief arm. However, I think he is fully capable of grabbing a full time spot in the bullpen.

Another pitcher who has the talent to grab a full time bullpen spot is Gus Varland. He looked like he was on his way to doing that with the White Sox back in 2024. That season, he posted a 3.42 ERA in 26.1 innings with 27 strikeouts. However, Varland’s 2025 was ravaged by injuries.

He did not appear in the MLB and only made 8 appearances in the minors. If he can get back to what he was in 2024, that is a big league reliever though. Unlike Granillo, Varland’s bread and butter is the fastball. He sits 95-96 MPH and the pitch has great shape. It has explosive life at the top of the zone at its best.

Gus Varland – first appearance on the mound. First strikeout. #ThisIsMyCrew | @GusBusVarlandpic.twitter.com/z8j7KoPoXK

— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) March 30, 2023

Varland’s heater gets both run and ride. It has 18 inches of ride and 11 inches of run. Both of those numbers are above average. That life is why he was able to throw his heater 55.6% of the time and still get quality results. To go with the heater, Varland has a hard slider that is a bit inconsistent. It can be good at times, but is also susceptible to damage.

Like Granillo, Varland has experimented with a changeup, and making that a consistent third pitch would be helpful. I just think Varland has the ability to be a solid middle reliever who can make 60 appearances in a season and put up an ERA around 3.50. That is nothing flashy, but the Nats need guys like that.

The last potentially impactful waiver claim I want to talk about is a slightly different profile. Paxton Schultz, who the Nats claimed from the Blue Jays, is more of a multi-inning relief arm. He is even able to make some spot starts if needed.

The 28 year old was solid when called upon for the Blue Jays last year. He posted a decent 4.38 ERA in 24.2 innings. Schultz struck out 28 batters and only walked 8 in that time as well. He does not have elite stuff, so he got hit at times, but he always competed out there.

Schultz also performed in multiple roles. He made 13 appearances for the Jays last year, with two of them being starts. Schultz went at least two innings in 6 of his 13 outings. Like Varland, Schultz has a fastball with good carry. He does not get as much ride as Varland, but he also throws from a lower slot. The lower slot and still good ride makes his fastball shape strong.

Recently-DFA'd RHP Paxton Schultz could be worth a #Padres waiver claim.

In 2025 at the MLB level:
– 25.5% K | 7.3% BB
– 27.4% Whiff & Chase (32.7% vs FC)
– 1.46 HR/9, .333 BABIP can indicate positive regression

Has 2 MiLB options left, solid swingman addition? pic.twitter.com/fTZ3531TtD

— Diego Garcia (@StatNerd_Base) January 5, 2026

The heater averages just under 94 MPH, but that shape helps it play up. As someone who goes multiple innings, Schultz has a deeper pitch mix than most relievers. In addition to the heater, Schultz throws a cutter, a changeup and a slider. None of them are elite, but the cutter and changeup are good pitches. 

Schultz is a bit like Brad Lord. He can just do whatever you need him to in a bullpen and can even make starts. Lord is more of a real starter than Schultz, but you get the point. The Nats have quite a few pitchers who can fill that long relief role, so Schultz needs to pitch well to make the team.

Even if he does not make the team out of camp, I have a hard time believing he will not make an impact at some point. Schultz is a very valuable optionable arm to have. When the bullpen is tired, you can call him up and he can absorb innings for you.

In a sea of waiver claims this offseason, I think Andre Granillo, Gus Varland and Paxton Schultz will be the most impactful. They all have a history at the MLB level and do not require much projection. None are likely to be stars, but all of them are capable of being solid contributors.

Yesterday, The Baltimore Banner reported that Jordan Westburg has undergone elbow imaging, indicating that there was concern about damage to ligaments. On Friday morning, Orioles GM Mike Elias delivered the official news about what’s going on with Westburg’s elbow. The infielder has been diagnosed with a partial tear in his ulnar collateral ligament. That’s the ligament that requires Tommy John surgery after a full tear.

According to Elias, the initial treatment for Westburg is going to be a platelet-rich plasma (PRP) injection. At a minimum, he will be out through the end of April and things will be re-evaluated at that point. The PRP injection is an option to avoid surgery for only a partial tear. It doesn’t always work, as was demonstrated two years ago now when Kyle Bradish tried to avoid TJ by getting the PRP injection. In Bradish’s case, it worked for eight starts and then he needed the surgery anyway.

If you’re not optimistic about the PRP working and Westburg avoiding the surgery, I don’t blame you. In this case, for a position player, there’s not really a lot of downside to trying it. While position player rehab times for Tommy John are typically quicker than pitchers, Westburg would be done for the year if he decided he was getting the surgery tomorrow. He would also have a good shot of being fully ready to return for the start of next year’s spring training. That should still be the case even if he ends up deciding on May 1 that the only option is surgery. Trying the PRP injection is a longshot with almost no cost and a decent upside.

Westburg felt the elbow soreness while rehabbing for his oblique issue, Elias said. The imaging done on his elbow suggested that Westburg has probably had the partial tear in the UCL for a while. The throwing done by a position player just doesn’t do the same kind of stress on the elbow as pitching, so he could probably play through the issue and maybe not even think of it as much of an issue until this month when he suddenly could not. That’s the way it goes sometimes.

This is not good news. About all you can say about it is that at least now the Orioles have some clarity, in the sense that they know Westburg is going to miss at least a month, so they’ve got the remainder of spring training to figure out a solution to this absence. Between Jackson Holliday’s broken hamate bone and this, two of the four infield spots will be covered by backup options as the season begins. Holliday, at least, shouldn’t be out for as long, and his playing at all this season is less in doubt.

Whether the Orioles have readily-available solutions based on who is in camp already is another thing. Coby Mayo is taking aspirational grounders at third base and recently-acquired infielder Blaze Alexander might be able to be the guy for second base. Mayo needs some work at third and maybe he can’t be good enough no matter how much work he puts in. He also needs to hit enough to be worth playing at any position.

I hope the Orioles don’t get too invested in believing that Westburg will be back on May 1. I also don’t think that they will do this. They will know the PRP success rate even better than any of us. There’s only so much they can do on February 20 to adjust. “Use the backup plan we already had in place” is probably going to look the same as “do nothing.” As spring training moves along, we’ll get a sense of what that backup plan is and on Opening Day we’ll start to see how well it works.

Spring Training games still haven’t begun but that didn’t stop Kevin Cash from declaring the team’s Opening Day starter.

Taking the mound on March 26th in St Louis for the Tampa Bay Rays on Opening Day will be Drew Rasmussen.

“I’m really honored. It’s really cool to get the opportunity to pitch on opening day. Just being given the opportunity, it is a blessing, and it is humbling. And I’m excited for the opportunity.”

Rasmussen, 30, was originally selected by the Rays with the 31st overall selection in the 2017 draft but the right-handed pitcher went unsigned; a year later, Rasmussen was taken in the 6th round by the Milwaukee Brewers. He’d quickly make his big league debut in the 2020 season and then eventually find his way to the Rays as he would be traded to Tampa Bay for Willy Adames in 2021. He had a breakout campaign in 2022 and looked tobe a possible Cy Young candidate early in 2023 before his arm decided to explode and he would mis the majority of the 2023 and 2024 seasons.

This past year, Rasmussen made his return to be being a full time starting pitcher and enjoyed an All-Star campaign, compiling a 2.76 ERA | 3.84 FIP with a 21.7 K% & 6.3 BB% 0ver 150 innings pitched; due to Rasmussen’s injury history, the Rays limited his workload throughout the season, never permitting him to throw more than six innings in a game despite stellar performances.

The plan seems to be different in 2026 with Kyle Snyder saying that he think it’s “very reasonable” to expect Rasmussen to provide 170 innings this season, and bestowing upon him a starring role, in addition to his new clubhouse responsibilities as the clubhouse’s MLBPA representative.

One of the my favorite bits in Mets discourse these days is that the only part of roster building that David Stearns is actually excited about is dumpster diving for relief arms. Signing a young superstar to a record-setting contract? Boring. Trading for a potentially electric center fielder or a very affordable #2 starter? Grunt work. Digging into NPB stats to pick out some minor league guys to invite to camp? There we go, that’s the good stuff.

Enter Mike Baumann (not to be confused with Michael Baumann the Fangraphs writer). A third round pick out of Jacksonville University in 2017, Baumann was never a top prospect not even a particularly notable one; even in the dog days of the Orioles rebuild, his stuff was never good enough to merit an extended chance in the rotation, nor was he very good out of the bullpen. The Orioles eventually cut him loose during the 2024 season, and he’d wind up bouncing between not one, not two, but four other teams before heading off to Japan for the 2025 season. After 15 mediocre innings with the Yakult Swallows (where he walked 7.2 batters per nine), he’s now back stateside on a minor league deal with an invite to camp.

What did the Mets see here? Well it’s definitely not the top-line performance as we just discussed, so it must be the underlying stuff. And indeed, all the public-facing stuff models have something positive to say about Baumann’s 2024 arsenal. His knuckle-curve was scored a 67 by PitchingBot (20-80 scale), a 118 by Stuff+ (100 is average), a 122 (100 is average) by Rob Orr’s metrics, and -1.1 by Baseball Prospectus’s StuffPro (negative is better). The movement profile isn’t amazing, but he throws it hard for a curve at 87.8 MPH. You can catch a couple shots of this pitch proving to be an effective put away offering in this 2024 compilation – watch out for the Miguel Sano jump scare at the start.

Baumann also has a fastball that’s consistently graded out as slightly above average (ignoring what I assume is a calibration or small sample size issue from PitchingBot in 2024), so you can see the potential building blocks. Maybe it’s a tweak to the fastball shape to make it a more effective offering and get Baumann two above average pitches. Maybe it’s an adjustment to his mix to focus more on the knuckle curve. Perhaps it’s a new third pitch or an improvement to his current slider or changeup that makes it all work better together. It could even be that some of this has already happened in Japan last year and we just can’t see it because we don’t have the data. There are a lot of different directions this could go.

Most minor league signings of this type never amount to much – a single appearance or three in the dog days of summer, or potentially only a couple of Spring Training outings before the club goes in a different direction. The success the Mets have had recently with pitching development is infectious though, as is David Stearns’ track record with building bullpens. You almost believe that everything they touch will turn to gold. Maybe that will be the case for Mike Baumann, providing him a respite from his professional odyssey and the Mets meme creators more fuel for their most reliable bit.

With actual (spring training) games about to start, all the major prospect lists entering 2026 are in, which allows us to form a consensus of sorts. For the Dodgers prospects, the outfielders lead the way.

Josue De Paula is the top-rated Dodgers prospect at Baseball Prospectus, MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs, and ESPN. Eduardo Quintero is the top-rated prospect in the system according to The Athletic and Baseball America. De Paula’s average prospect rank in baseball at those six sites is 18.5, with Quintero averaging 27.7.

Zyhir Hope is the other Dodgers prospect named in the top 100 at all six of those national outlets, ranging from 18th to 63rd with an average of 37.5. Mike Sirota, completing the Dodgers outfield quartet, was ranked between 34th and 60th at five of the six sites, but was outside of the top 110 at FanGraphs.

Those six sites have the longest track record of national prospect rankings, but the Dodgers outfielders lead the way elsewhere, too. Thomas Nestico at his TJ Stats newsletter ranked the four Dodgers outfielders among his top 52 prospects, while Aram Leighton had the outfield quartet among his top 41 prospects at Just Baseball.

Shortstop Emil Morales was also named to five top-100 lists, ranging between 56th and 92nd on those lists, missing out only on the Baseball America list.

Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic, and ESPN all have standard top-100 lists, while Baseball Prospectus ranked the top 101 and FanGraphs went 110 deep. But there were also a few “just missed”lists of 10 or 20extra prospects, while Kiley McDaniel at ESPN decided to also rank his 101 through 200 prospects, too.

In all, 10 different Dodgers prospects were ranked within the top 111 in baseball entering 2026. If we limit it to top 100 only, seven Dodgers were included on at least one of those lists.

Player	Pos	2026 age	BA	MLB	Athletic	ESPN	BP	FG
Josue De Paula	OF	21	24	15	20	21	14	17
Eduardo Quintero	OF	20	20	30	9	37	27	43
Zyhir Hope	OF	21	63	27	36	40	18	41
Mike Sirota	OF	23	45	60	51	55	34
Emil Morales	SS	19		92	65	65	56	61
River Ryan	SP	27			55	125		107
Alex Freeland	SS	24			87	103	102-111
Jackson Ferris	SP	22		101-110		128
Ching-Hsien Ko	OF	19			101-110
Zach Ehrhard	OF	23				111

Good morning! The Red Sox will play an honest-to-god baseball game today, as Spring Training is finally under way. So my question to you today is: what are you watching for in Spring Training?

For fans, Spring Training tends to be about two things: the new guys and the rookies. But in the case of the 2026 Red Sox, a few of the big new names will be off playing in the World Baseball Classic (Ranger Suárez and Willson Contreras) while another (Sonny Gray) is more of a known commodity. Meanwhile, the club doesn’t really have any unknown rookies in camp this season, though there are plenty of young guys who still have questions to answer.

So here’s what I’ll have my eye on this spring:

• Will either Connelly Early or Payton Tolle force themselves into the rotation?
• Is Johan Oviedo a diamond in the rough?
• Is Caleb Durbin better than I think? (I do not think he’s that good!)
• Will Marcelo Mayer take a step up with the bat?
• Will Kristian Campbell take a step up with everything?

Talk about what you want to see over the next six weeks or whatever else you want and, as always, be good to one another.

Good morning my friends! It’s Friday and the Cactus League season is kicking off for the M’s today, who face off with the Padres at 12:10pm PT. Let’s check in on what’s happening around the league.

In Mariners news…

• Shannon Drayer gauged the temperature of Mariners’ camp as they prepare for their first Cactus League game.
• Ken Griffey, Jr. has been named a Global Ambassador for the 2026 World Baseball Classic. His duties include interviews and content creation alongside the tournament’s athletes on official social media channels.

Around the league…

• Orioles infielder Jordan Westburg is undergoing imaging for his elbow. Westburg has already been limited this spring due to an oblique injury.
• The Brewers have extended the contract of manager Pat Murphy through the 2029 season.
• The A’s are bringing longtime skipper Bob Melvin back to the organization to serve in a baseball operations role.
• The Tigers unveiled a new set of alternate jerseys for the 2026 season.
• The Guardians are planning to give Gold Glove-winning left fielder Steven Kwan some reps in center field this year.
• Derek Carty at Fangraphs proudly rolled out the brand new THE BAT X projection model for pitchers. Previously, THE BAT X only released projections for hitters.
• Davy Andrews at Fangraphs wonders which baseball players would make the best ice dancers, in which he shows some major respect for one of our favorite Mariners.

Anders’ picks…

• It was a big day for the USA in the Winter Olympics, with the women’s ice hockey team winning an overtime thriller over Team Canada in the gold medal game. Meanwhile, figure skater Alysa Liu completed a comeback for the history books to claim the first individual gold medal for an American woman in figure skating in over 20 years.
• This summer, ESPN is replacing Sunday Night Baseball broadcasts with Women’s Sports Sundays.

Morning everyone and happy Friday!

News broke yesterday that a familiar face will be rejoining the Athletics. It’s not anyone that’ll take the field but his presence is invaluable in a different way. We’re welcoming back of course former manager Bob Melvin, who will be taking on a Special Advisory role with the team he managed for 10+ seasons:

Welcome back to the Green & Gold, Bob!

We have hired Bob Melvin as Special Assistant, Baseball Operations. pic.twitter.com/a6QHCg3L6j

— Athletics (@Athletics) February 19, 2026

Welcome back Bob! The return of BoMel is much welcomed for a young A’s squad that is looking to take that next step forward. While none of the players that he managed with the Athletics are around anymore, the young crop that the A’s have currently surely know the history of Melvin with the franchise. When Melvin speaks, players shut up and listen because he’s been around this game longer than most of them have been alive. BoMel, as he’s affectionally known, was a players’ coach during his time donning the Green & Gold and he won Manager of the Year in both 2012 and 2018, two of the most memorable seasons in recent A’s history. Overall he went 853-764 while managing our A’s and every player he coached had nothing but roses for him.

The Palo Alto native is the second-winningest manager in franchise history (behind of course Connie Mack), but Melvin exited unceremoniously from the team after the 2021 season. That was the offseason the A’s began their tear down of the roster and, while he was still technically under contract, both team and Melvin decided that a fresh start for both sides was in the best interest of everyone involved. He had no desire to oversee another years-long rebuild and he ended up going down south to manage the win-now San Diego Padres for a couple seasons before returning to the Bay Area as the manager of the rival Giants, which was a bit of a gut punch to us A’s fans. He lasted just two seasons there though and was surprisingly canned this offseason by Giants president Buster Posey after posting a 161-163 record.

While Melvin oversaw six playoff squads, advancing deep into the postseason always proved to be a challenge for him. The A’s lost five of six of those series in the first round, only winning the 2020 Wild Card series over the Chicago White Sox but then immediately losing to the Houston Astros in the next round. His squads did put up some tough battles against the Detroit Tigers early on in his time as manager but his postseason record of 7-13 isn’t great and he was 0-3 in Wild Card games as manager of the A’s.

That’s not all of the context though. Melvin repeatedly worked within the restraints of having one of the lowest payrolls in the league and still managed to coax plenty of production out of random names and other nobodies that had been forgotten by the league. The fact that Melvin was able to put together multiple playoff rosters while dealing with an absent front office and a lack of funds from the owner for upgrades is a testament to the kind of baseball mind he has on his head. This is a huge get for the A’s organization as a whole, though fans may not exactly see the impact he’ll have.

Reportedly Melvin is preparing to take on a role that allows him to help both the front office and players. During Spring Training Melvin is going to be around so keep an eye out and you might spot him! He’ll be watching the games, giving pointers to the players, and assessing the current crop along with the front office and scouts. He won’t be among an unfamiliar group of coaches either as many know him or even worked with him in the past. That includes current manager Mark Kotsay, who was on Melvin’s staff for years before taking over for him in 2022.

Once the regular season gets underway though BoMel will be hanging out down in the minor leagues with the top prospects coming up through the system. That’ll be a new experience for him as he’s been a major league coach for the past 27 years and hasn’t been able to see minor leaguers much up close before they arrive. Melvin will be a key voice for General Manager David Forst when it comes to promotions for those players. If they get his voice of approval, it’ll be hard to keep them down long.

“It means a lot,” Melvin said, of returning to the A’s. “I’m just going to try to help out however I can. The easy part for me is the familiarity with the people in the organization.”

BoMel is back! pic.twitter.com/6OVo2NSuXr

— Athletics (@Athletics) February 19, 2026

Melvin is going to slide right back in almost like he never left. After a few years of bouncing around, returning to a familiar team in the A’s will be a breath of familiar air for him. And the A’s are all the luckier to have such an important baseball mind around.

Have a great weekend everyone! Baseball is back!

A’s Coverage

• Bob Melvin returning to Athletics as special advisor
• Can The A’s Young Core Turn Defense Into a Strength?
• Pesky Drawback Of “Closer By Committee” (It Never Really Works)
• Athletics Community Prospect List: Cole Miller Lays Claim To #15
• Can Kurtz get his glove to match his monster bat?
• Zack Gelof: Outfielder?
• Athletics 2026 Top MLB Prospects Deep Dive
• Waiting For Gelof: What Do We Do?
• “Relievers Are Volatile”… But Why?
• Are The Final Two Rotation Spots Really Up For Grabs?
• Story Lines To Watch As Spring Training Unfolds

MLB News and Interest:

• Orioles’ Jordan Westburg ‘physically unable to participate’ at camp
• Brewers sign manager Pat Murphy to contract extension
• Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan to get center field reps during spring
• MLBPA elects Bruce Meyer as interim executive director
• Is this the most stacked, competitive division in baseball?
• Buster Olney ranks top-10 first basemen for 2026
• Former A’s starter Chris Bassitt calls out MLB in blunt comments
• Emmanuel Clase, Luis Ortiz plead not guilty in pitch rigging case
• Each team’s top projected player for 2026
• Dodgers righty Brusdar Graterol to miss beginning of season
• Rays right-hander Edwin Uceta undergoing tests on shoulder
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

It’s not too late for Kotsay to join in on the WBC fun:

A's manager Mark Kotsay would LOVE to be part of Team USA's coaching staff if the opportunity materializes in the 2028 Olympics.

"Doc, if you're watching this, bring me on your staff." 👀 pic.twitter.com/QceU6arPam

— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) February 19, 2026

Possible closer versus starting first baseman:

Nick Kurtz vs. Hogan Harris Live BP pic.twitter.com/6r0KpUhuna

— Martín Gallegos (@MartinJGallegos) February 19, 2026

We would all more than welcome that. Needs to figure out lefties first:

"I just wanted to go out there and give it all I had for my team." — Lawrence Butler

Lawski 30/30 season loading? 😤⏳@athleticscast24#Athleticspic.twitter.com/ShpE9k7BQo

— SleeperAthletics (@SleeperAth) February 19, 2026

Higher hopes for the left-handers coming up:

“Last year it was Barnett and Perkins… this year it’s Arnold and Jump in the fold. It seems like you’re leveling up.”

Jack McMullen seeing the vision. 📈 https://t.co/GUPRsMeRif

— SleeperAthletics (@SleeperAth) February 19, 2026

5. Jared Thomas (476 points, 19 ballots)

Thomas went 42nd-overall to the Rockies as a draft-eligible sophomore in 2024, signing for an under-slot $2 million. He got that bonus due to excellent bat-to-ball skills, some emerging power, and above-average speed that gives him a high floor offensively. The 22-year-old, 6’2” lefty spent most of his time defensively at Texas (where he played alongside fellow PuRP Max Belyeu) playing first base, but he has split his time in center and left field as a professional, with slightly more time in left.

After a freshman year at Texas where he hit a strong .321/.398/.484, Thomas traded some contact for power for his draft year. Though his strikeouts increased from 15% to 21% of his plate appearances, Thomas also saw his home runs quadruple from four to 16 — a part of an increase in slugging percentage of 151 points. His 2024 college line in 291 PA was .349/.435/.635 with 35 extra-base-hits, and he was a perfect 18/18 on steals.

A strong 2024 cameo in Low-A Fresno (146 wRC+) was cut to only eight games when Thomas went down with a quad injury, but the Rockies saw enough to bump Thomas up to High-A Spokane to begin 2025 (he was 1.3 years younger than league average). In Spokane, Thomas absolutely raked, hitting .330/.427/.495 with 11 homers among his 25 extra-base hits and going 22/24 on steals in 342 plate appearances (147 wRC+). His batting average led the Northwest League while his OBP was third and his OPS was fourth.

The Rockies promoted Thomas on July 1st to Double-A Hartford, where he was 2.5 years younger than league average. Facing upper-minors pitching, Thomas cooled down a bit, hitting a still respectable .245/.347/.374 with three homers among his 14 extra-base hits and 11 steals in 191 plate appearances, which is a 113 wRC+. Thomas struck out in 35% of his Double-A PA and had a decently large platoon split, producing a .726 OPS against lefties vs. a .874 OPS against righties (with a large home/road OPS split of .989/.696 as well). In the field, Thomas committed all six of his errors in left field but had four of his seven outfield assists from center field.

Thomas ended 2025 with a stint in the Arizona Fall League, during which he hit .302/.343/.524 with two homers (including a grand slam) among his nine extra-base hits with eight steals in just 67 plate appearances, but unfortunately a broken hamate bone ended his time in the AFL prematurely.

Here’s some video of Thomas at Fresno in 2024, including some slo-mo looks at the swing in the back half:

Baseball America recently ranked Thomas third in the system (so did Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com) and project him to be the starting left fielder in 2029:

The 6-foot-2, 190-pound Thomas is an average athlete who moves well for his size. He began his pro career playing primarily center field, but when he moved to Hartford, he slid to left field, which is a better long-term fit. Thomas’ move to Double-A also exposed the key area of concern: swing-and-miss issues, particularly against better sequencing and breaking stuff. Still, when he makes contact, it is often loud contact—supported by consistently high exit velocities and quality barrel rates.

Keith Law of the Athletic ranked Thomas 80th before the draft and he ranked Thomas 9th in the system earlier this month:

Thomas can show you easy plus power — he hit a ball in the Arizona Fall League that probably hasn’t come down yet, putting it in the Charro Lodge in right field at Scottsdale Stadium, with an EV of 111 mph — but he doesn’t hold it through the year, wearing down in the second half before he got a break between the regular season and the AFL. He needs to keep that strength and muscle, and needs to really tighten up his approach; he misses a little too much in zone and swings a little too much at stuff out of zone, enough to add up to a 34.5 percent strikeout rate in Double A last year. He broke a hamate bone in the AFL, so his power may not be there when he returns this spring. There’s an everyday center fielder package here, somewhere, but he’s got to hit enough to get to it and show he can maintain that power through a whole season.

MLB Pipeline, who ranked Thomas 60th in their draft rankings, slotted Thomas 8th in the org as a 45 FV player with a 55 Hit, Run, and Arm grade last year:

Thomas showed off what a good feel he has for his left-handed swing. He has the chance to really hit at the next level, routinely finding the barrel and not trying to do too much. There’s some sneaky pop in there, and as he showed during his sophomore year, he can sacrifice a little contact for pop without completely selling out for it.

Thomas is a pretty good athlete who runs better underway and has the ability to play multiple positions. He played more first than anywhere else with the Longhorns, but showed he could capably handle center field as a sophomore and the Rockies will likely work him at all three outfield spots during his first full year of pro ball. He’s already opened some eyes across the industry as the Rockies were getting calls about him from other teams.

Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs had Thomas 48th among draft prospects and ranks him 11th in the system at midseason as a 40+ FV player (up from 40 FV preseason) with a 60 future raw power grade:

Thomas has an ideal baseball frame at a super projectable 6-foot-2; he has above-average power to both gaps and is going to grow into more. His dynamic low-ball swing plays best when Thomas’ bat path is vertical; it tends to be too long when he has to flatten it out to catch fastballs away from him. His power can be neutered in the down-and-away part of the strike zone. Barring the shortening up of Thomas’ swing, what were average college contact rates will likely translate to below-average rates in pro ball, but he might grow into enough power for that to be alright. At Texas, Thomas played center field, left field, and first base. His reads in the outfield aren’t very good and unless they improve, his arm forces him to left. Thomas only has the two years of college experience, so it’s worth a shot to continue things in center for at least a little while, and the Rockies played him in left and center during his brief pro debut. Thomas’ realistic ceiling is as a power-over-hit 1B/LF platoon bat, and he requires a little more projection than is typical of a college hitter.

Shaun Kernahan of Three Quarter Slot wrote up Thomas after his AFL performance:

Smooth, compact left-handed stroke defines his game, producing consistent line drives and easy backspin from a polished, advanced approach. Thomas shows exceptional bat-to-ball skill and an ability to adjust mid-count without losing balance or intent, attacking hittable pitches with controlled aggression. The swing works gap-to-gap with emerging power that projects to reach average at peak, giving him a steady offensive profile built on timing and rhythm rather than raw strength.

A steady athlete with strong instincts, he moves well once underway and offers defensive flexibility across the outfield and at first base. He’s capable of handling corner outfield spots and even center in a pinch and has seen plenty of time at first where he is a quality defender. Advanced strike-zone awareness and refined baseball IQ give him a professional polish that fits neatly in Colorado’s system. The contact ability, approach maturity, and defensive versatility make him a high floor prospect for the team in the mile high city.

Thomas has progressed beyond my expectations for him in 2025, already producing at an above-average level in Double-A just a year after getting drafted. If that pace continues, it’s possible he could be a big league factor as soon as this season if he can distinguish himself from the Rockies’ outfield mob. Thomas’s ability to at least fake it in center field could be useful in setting him apart, but of course it’s going to be the bat that carries him to big league success. I was encouraged by how Thomas performed in his first professional season and ranked him fifth on my list as a 45 FV player (just behind Robert Calaz).

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Over the next couple of weeks, I’ll be rolling out a series of prospect previews for Spring Training. This week we look at one of the top arms: AJ Blubaugh.

Blubaugh was selected in the seventh round of the 2022 draft out of the University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee after a solid, albeit limited, college career. In his first full professional season, he showed promise, striking out 112 batters over 100 innings. Despite a 4.41 ERA, he finished strong in Double-A with a 1.26 ERA. In 2024, he had a true breakout season, reaching Triple-A and finishing with a 3.71 ERA and 133 strikeouts over 128.2 innings, helping Sugar Land capture the Triple-A Championship.

Heading into 2025, expectations were high for continued success and a potential big league call-up. He made a couple solid starts before his MLB debut, where he allowed seven runs, two earned, over four innings. The next eight starts were a struggle, as he gave up 37 earned runs in 34.1 innings. Blubaugh regained his footing and earned a call-up in August, striking out eight over five innings in relief against Miami.

He finished the 2025 season in Houston dominant, posting a 1.69 ERA with 35 strikeouts over 32 innings while allowing just 17 hits. Blubaugh showcased a 98 MPH fastball and a devastating changeup which he didn’t allow a single hit with the pitch at the major league level, proving he has the tools to be a reliable big league arm. Blubaugh is extremely athletic and a former basketball player. Blubaugh is extremely athletic and a former basketball player, which contributes to his strong arm and agility on the mound.

Now entering 2026, Blubaugh has a legitimate opportunity to establish himself as a reliable big league arm. Read more on his 2025 season here.

With the expiration date of the current competitive bargaining agreement between the Major League Baseball Players Association and the owners looming over the end of the season like a supermoon in the sky, you can be assured that there will be lots of digital ink spilled all year long about the key negotiating issues. This is, of course, one of those pieces discussing one of the key negotiating issues. The issue at hand is arguably the central issue: that of a potential salary cap.

You all know the generalities by now. MLB is the only major American sports league without a salary cap. The MLBPA has historically resisted any form of a salary cap. The owners increasingly want a salary cap. None of this has changed. What has changed is that we’re close enough to the new CBA negotiations that we’re starting to see some actual numbers floated about. Evan Drellich, probably the most well-versed and well-connected journalist on this particular topic, included what his sources are telling him could be some realistic proposed numbers in a recent piece for The Athletic:

Whatever the owners first propose probably is not where they’d be willing to end up. A reasonable goal from an ownership perspective might be $240 million at the top and $160 million at the bottom, one source briefed on management thinking who was not authorized to speak publicly said. 

There are a lot of arguments, many of them deep and interesting, about whether a salary cap would benefit players or owners or lead to more or less competitive balance. For now, let us set these gently aside as out of the scope of our little examination. Let’s pretend that, tomorrow, the league and the union magically agreed to this exact salary cap. What’s the fallout?

To find out, I looked at Cot’s Baseball Contracts and pulled the 2026 projected Opening Day payrolls for all 30 MLB teams. For any team under the $160 million floor, I adjusted their payroll figure to exactly $160 million. For any team over the $240 million ceiling, I adjusted their payroll figure to exactly $240 million. I then put them in a fun little spreadsheet so we all can see the results:

Team	2026 Opening Day Projected	2026 Salary Cap Adjusted	Difference
New York Mets	$355,204,181	$240,000,000	-$115,204,181
Los Angeles Dodgers	$314,895,813	$240,000,000	-$74,895,813
New York Yankees	$296,398,833	$240,000,000	-$56,398,833
Philadelphia Phillies	$280,583,618	$240,000,000	-$40,583,618
Toronto Blue Jays	$274,188,218	$240,000,000	-$34,188,218
Atlanta Braves	$259,586,000	$240,000,000	-$19,586,000
Houston Astros	$236,532,333	$236,532,333	$0
Chicago Cubs	$220,383,079	$220,383,079	$0
San Diego Padres	$215,130,898	$215,130,898	$0
Detroit Tigers	$203,747,859	$203,747,859	$0
San Francisco Giants	$193,459,922	$193,459,922	$0
Boston Red Sox	$187,500,905	$187,500,905	$0
Texas Rangers	$183,055,000	$183,055,000	$0
Arizona Diamondbacks	$181,129,256	$181,129,256	$0
Los Angeles Angels	$174,865,260	$174,865,260	$0
Baltimore Orioles	$165,694,000	$165,694,000	$0
Seattle Mariners	$159,446,881	$160,000,000	$553,119
Kansas City Royals	$140,459,488	$160,000,000	$19,540,512
Cincinnati Reds	$126,921,333	$160,000,000	$33,078,667
Milwaukee Brewers	$125,492,605	$160,000,000	$34,507,395
Colorado Rockies	$119,501,290	$160,000,000	$40,498,710
Pittsburgh Pirates	$105,673,500	$160,000,000	$54,326,500
Minnesota Twins	$104,090,857	$160,000,000	$55,909,143
St. Louis Cardinals	$98,125,000	$160,000,000	$61,875,000
Washington Nationals	$90,564,700	$160,000,000	$69,435,300
Wandering Athletics	$89,110,713	$160,000,000	$70,889,287
Tampa Bay Rays	$85,178,000	$160,000,000	$74,822,000
Chicago White Sox	$85,008,000	$160,000,000	$74,992,000
Cleveland Guardians	$74,552,140	$160,000,000	$85,447,860
Miami Marlins	$73,936,000	$160,000,000	$86,064,000
TOTAL	$5,220,415,682	$5,641,498,512	$421,082,830

The quick and dirty results: if MLB had implemented this particular version of the salary cap and floor, the players in aggregate would have gotten $421 million more in salary. Only six teams were above the ceiling. Meanwhile, more than double the teams—14!—were below the floor. There were as many teams at least $69 million below the floor as there were teams above the ceiling by any amount.

Sure, there are still some free agents out there, but Fangraphs’ free agent tracker lists only three players that project to get $10 million+ this year and have yet to sign: Lucas Giolito, Max Scherzer, and Zack Littell. And sure, this doesn’t include 40-man rosters, which cost each team a few extra million to fill out. On the other hand, a realistic scenario here wouldn’t have a whopping 14 teams at the exact $160 million floor; just a few million dollars spent above that floor for each team would cancel both things out.

So why has the union resisted if something like this would result in more money in the pockets of their members? There’s the principal of the matter, as the union likely feels it’s not their fault that teams like the Guardians, Rays, and Brewers are such incredible cheap-asses. Additionally, the union is trying to protect the earning potential for its best players. Under this scenario, the stars of the game would see their earning potential curtailed without the half dozen or so largest markets able to flex their financial muscles.

I don’t have a huge sweeping takeaway for you. The only thing I offer is the data’s perspective here, and a perhaps more subjective perspective informed by the data: if the players stay disciplined and focused, they can give the owners the salary cap that they want while securing terms that widen their slice of the revenue pie—all while catering to a public that’s generally sick of seeing big market teams push their way to the top.

As you know, Marquee Sports Network has cut back on its live game coverage this spring. The Score, now also on FM 104.3 in the Chicago area, will carry some games as well, but radio and TV coverage overlap for some dates.

I’m here to tell you that of the 33 Cubs games this spring (32 major-league games and the Spring Breakout prospect game), 26 of them will have TV or radio coverage, or both, either via the Cubs broadcast outlets or the opposing team.

So, while that’s not perfect, it’s at least most of the spring.

Here’s where you can watch or listen to those 26 Cubs games this spring. If a line is blank after the opponent’s name, that means no broadcast coverage for that game.

Date	Team	TV	Radio
Fri 2/20	vs White Sox	Marquee	The Score/ESPN 1000
Sat 2/21	vs Rangers	Marquee	The Score/Rangers radio 105.3
Sun 2/22	at Giants	SF Video	KNBR 104.5
Mon 2/23	at Royals		ALT 96.5
Tue 2/24	vs Padres		SD Audio
Wed 2/25	vs Rockies
Thu 2/26	at Angels
Fri 2/27	vs Guardians
Sat 2/28	at Dodgers	SportsNet LA
Sun 3/1	vs White Sox	Marquee	ESPN 1000
Mon 3/2	at Reds	Marquee/Reds TV
Tue 3/3	vs Italy
Wed 3/4	at Brewers	Marquee/Brewers TV	WTMJ 620
Thu 3/5	vs D-backs
Fri 3/6	at Padres	Padres TV	KWFN 97.3
Sat 3/7	vs Athletics		The Score
Sun 3/8	vs Giants	Marquee	The Score/KNBR 104.5
Mon 3/9	OFF DAY
Tue 3/10	at Rangers
Wed 3/11	vs Royals
Thu 3/12	vs Mariners		Seattle Sports 710 AM
Fri 3/13	at White Sox	CHSN	ESPN 1000
Sat 3/14	at Rockies		The Score
Sun 3/15	vs Dodgers	Marquee/SportsNet LA	The Score
Mon 3/16	at Guardians	Guardians TV	WTAM 1100
Tue 3/17	vs Angels		The Score
Wed 3/18	at D-backs	AZ Video
Thu 3/19	OFF DAY
Fri 3/20	vs Reds (SS)		WLW 700
Fri 3/20	at Athletics (SS)	Marquee/NBC Sports CA	ATH Audio
Sat 3/21	at Mariners	Marquee/Mariners TV	The Score
Sat 3/21	Spring Breakout	Marquee
Sun 3/22	vs Brewers	Marquee/Brewers TV/ESPN Unlimited	The Score
Mon 3/23	vs Yankees		The Score/WFAN
Tue 3/24	vs Yankees		WFAN

I’ll also post broadcast information in every game preview, including today’s. Today’s game preview will post at 12 noon CT (2:05 p.m. CT game time).

The first three games, at least, you’ll be able to watch or listen to as they all have TV and radio coverage.

Enjoy the spring!

Why Nola feels ‘stronger' going into this Phillies spring training originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

So, here we are again. For the fourth year in a row, we sit here saying this city would be utterly disappointed if the Phillies didn’t at least get to the World Series in 2026.

If you’re the longest tenured Phillie, you know what it’s like during an 11-year playoff drought just as much as you know the electricity of starting a World Series game on the mound.

From tossing an average of 194 innings between 2021 and 2024 to throwing a total of just 94 1/3 in 2025, Aaron Nola is determined to have a bounce-back season on the bump in 2026.

Nola’s 2025 season was disappointing and injury riddled. He went 1-7 with a 6.16 ERA over nine starts before heading to the IL in May with a sprained ankle. He then suffered a stress fracture in his rib during his rehab assignment in June. He returned to the Phillies’ rotation in August, making eight more starts, only three of which he allowed fewer than four earned runs.

“Obviously, the ankle is kind of a lingering thing. … The worst is that I didn’t realize it was going to take as long as it did, and didn’t realize how much I really use [my ankle] pushing off on the mound and then rotating it,” Nola said on NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Phillies Talk podcast. “So, I learned a lot from it and learned a lot about my body at the time.”

Nola said he felt 100 percent at the end of the 2025 season. In his last regular season start, he allowed just two hits and one earned run over eight innings. But even still, Nola made a change to his offseason routine to have a stronger start in Clearwater.

“The offseason was good,” he said. “I ramped up a little bit earlier, started everything a little bit early … Throwing and doing some workouts. Not get into it super fast, kind of slowly get into it. I usually take like two and a half months off [from] throwing just to let everything kind of repair and recover, but I felt good doing it early. I felt stronger coming into spring training.”

As things ramp up toward the regular season, expectations are as high as ever. Many would say this was a disappointing offseason, despite the Phillies re-signing crucial veterans Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto.

But Nola knows this team is capable of winning a World Series.

“That’s the ultimate goal,” he said. “This is a great group. We all know it, too. And I know people wanted to see new faces in there, but we’ve got a really good team in, and we brought J.T. and Kyle back for a reason. I mean, they’re core guys and unbelievable teammates and players that we need.”

The Phillies are a 95-win ballclub. They’ve won consecutive NL East division titles. But that wasn’t always the case. If there’s anyone who can attest to that, it’s the guy who’s been through it every step of the way.

“I can’t speak for everybody but myself coming up in this organization’s rebuilding, some years [you’d be] coming into spring training probably knowing that you’re not going to make the playoffs,” Nola said. … “And kind of in those middle years of my tenure, I thought, ‘Yeah, we’ve got a chance to make the playoffs.’ … And then it comes August or September, we’re out of it.

“Then we finally [get over] that hump in 2022 and get hot. Nobody expected us to get to the World Series and make it to that Game 6,” Nola continued. “But I think the expectations now are yeah, we know we’re a good team. We know we’re going to win a lot of games, but we still got to go out and do it.”

That’s all they have to do. Be consistent, produce, stay healthy. But with a veteran-heavy ballclub, it’s not always that simple.

“It’s obviously not going to be easy,” Nola said. “It’s not a guarantee we’re going to win a division and get to the playoffs. We’ve got to stick to our plans and play like we usually do. We know how to because we know how to play with each other. I think that helps us out a lot, being with each other after all these years.”

Watch the full interview with Aaron Nola on Phillies Talk:

Rotation battles aren’t always super-interesting when you’re projected to threaten triple-digit losses for the fourth straight year. But they’re always happening! Here are some thoughts and ideas about how the spring might change what this year’s Opening Day starting five looks like. 

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Absolute, 100% Locks

Shane Smith
In a way, Smith is the reason for this whole exercise. The point is that no matter how much you think you know, you never know. A year ago ago, most of us were operating under the assumption that Smith would likely as not be returned to Milwaukee by the time the rosters got set.

Something I always look for when a young player appears to break out is how they respond after the league has adjusted to their initial outburst. We saw it in action with Smith last year, as I think most of us knew we would. Even with the 2.37 ERA he carried into June 17 last year, the way he subsequently got torched for 25 earned runs over his next 22 2/3 innings brought us to a crossroads as to whether Smith was just another flash in the pan.

Fortunately, Smith responded. Just as much as his electric start to 2025, the reason he’s a lock for a 2026 rotation spot is because of how he finished, running a 3.09 ERA while averaging 5.5 innings per start in 10 starts down the stretch. He’ll enter camp as the frontrunner to take the ball on Opening Day, probably no matter how he looks in March.

Anthony Kay
Kay is being paid $15 million over two seasons to soak up starts in the middle of the rotation, and hopefully do it well enough that he’ll either fetch a worthwhile trade return or perhaps even incentivize the White Sox to extend him at a reasonable rate. So, that’s exactly where he’s going to be. No competition to see here.

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Seem certain, but you really just never know

Sean Burke
Lock seems like quite a strong label for Burke right now, but I came about THIS close to putting him in that category pretty much solely because of this:

I dare you to raise your hand if you thought Burke was capable of doing that before seeing it with your own eyes. Let’s do one more, for good measure:

Smith stole all the headlines early in the season, but among the all the Sox young starters Burke was quietly the most solid over the bulk of the season, pacing the rotation (sans Houser) with a 3.96 ERA over 86 1/3 innings from May 23 on. Promisingly, it was accompanied by an above-average 26.5% strikeout rate and manageably subpar 9.5% walk rate. His arsenal might not be quite as sharp, but I’d argue Burke flashed about as much upside as Smith last season. For that reason, I actually think he’s more of a lock to walk out of camp with a job than the below.

Davis Martin
I’ve long been the conductor of the Davis Martin Hype Train™, but it wouldn’t be the most shocking thing in the world to me if he’s not quite the lock he’s been reported to be. It’s still a very, very safe bet he’ll open the year taking turns in the rotation for the second straight year, and I’m perfectly happy about that. Still, questions linger.

The resumé and argument for having him as a clear-cut starter is pretty basic. Save a brief stint on the injured list in June, Martin is one of the few members of this roster who’s made it through an entire big league season taking turns in the rotation. He led the team at five-and-a-half innings per start in 2025, and did it while delivering an almost perfectly league-average 4.10 ERA. As of now, there’s no real reason that shouldn’t earn a place to start on the 2026 White Sox.

As of now is the only reason he’s here. While Burke has cranked it up to nearly triple-digits, Martin topped out at 97 mph in 2025. Smith and Burke will be 26 this season, while Martin will pitch the year at 29. If the team’s pitching operation thinks they can get another tick or two of velocity out of Martin in short bursts, he strikes me as a candidate for an on-the-surface unexpected move to the bullpen. A Davis Martin who can hit 98 with multiple secondary pitches over a couple of relief innings might be well more valuable over the next two or three years than a superfluous No. 4 starter. If we see another pitcher with a Smith-type emergence out of nowhere next month, Martin to the pen might suddenly be a more realistic possibility than it would feel right now.

Erick Fedde
I’m trying to convince myself that Fedde is here simply as an insurance policy in case virtually no other young or veteran arms show themselves to be worthy of a rotation spot after some innings in Arizona. Then again, he’s got a $1.5 million major league deal, so again, what else is Fedde doing here if he’s not going to get a shot in the major league rotation? With a year-and-a-half in the rear-view mirror, the 6.5% walk rate Fedde posted with the Sox in 2024 looks pretty solidly like a mirage. If his command of the zone in spring still looks like it has for the large majority of his career, it’s hard seeing there being much justification for putting him in the mix. (Not that that’s ever stopped the Sox before.) Still, the MLB deal and the fact that Fedde and the current staff have an affinity for each makes me think he might have a leg up here that I’m not in love with.

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Fifth/Sixth Starter Battle Royale (Veterans)

Sean Newcomb
If Fedde just can’t cut it, Newcomb is probably the next man up as far as veteran presences go. It makes sense that with the team looking to take a substantial step forward in 2026, they’d upgrade on their Bryse Wilson acquisition from 2025, tapping Newcomb to be a quintessential swingman. Newcomb made five starts and averaged almost two innings per outing as a reliever in 2025, and unlike Wilson in his platform year Newcomb was actually successful, running a 2.73 ERA along the way. The team has said it’ll give him a chance to start, and Newcomb almost certainly will pick up some starts over the course of the season. But if he shows enough in the spring to hint that his 2025 relief performance might actually translate to a full-time starting role, Newcomb might have the inside track on a final rotation spot in any real competition.

Jonathan Cannon
Jonathan Cannon is still here! Last year’s showing was not pretty, for sure, and he was the clear loser of last year’s four-man derby among himself, Smith, Martin, and Burke for the inside track at the 2026 rotation. Still, his arsenal remains intriguing, and he’s still young. It’s not out of the question that with some offseason tweaks, Cannon could come barging into Spring Training looking like a guy who very much deserves a shot.

It happens seemingly every year or two, where Spring Training reveals an elite talent that was previously thought to be lost, or even non-existent. In 2021, Carlos Rodón entered camp a changed man. Dylan Cease was visibly ready to make the leap in 2022. Garrett Crochet was a revelation in 2024. Last season gave us Smith, of course. Cannon lacks the pure upside of any of those names, but the point stands. Spring Training is full of surprises, and Cannon could be one of them.

Mike Vasil
Vasil was the first pure reliever to break 100 innings pitched with fewer than four starts since Tony Peña did it for the White Sox in 2010 (Jalen Beeks broke 100 innings in 2019, though he primarily worked for Tampa Bay as a bulk “starter” following an opener). As such, given that Vasil posted a 2.50 ERA while doing it, it makes sense that he’d be stretched out and given a chance as a starter. It’s also a given that most peripheral numbers say that ERA was very lucky, and also a given that Vasil has simply proven himself to be effective out of the bullpen. If he can come into camp and show that he can meaningfully cut down his 12% walk rate from 2025 while holding his velocity at 94-95 for four or five innings at a time, Vasil has a chance at being a surprise inclusion in the Opening Day five. The last thing that’s also a given, though, is that now that he’s spent his Rule 5 year fully on the roster, he has an option year remaining. The most likely outcome is that if Vasil shows some promise as a starter, he’ll open the year in Charlotte’s rotation to see if he can get acclimated and work out the kinks. But hey, you never know!

Jordan Hicks
Every indication is that Hicks is going to pitch out of the bullpen, but I’m leaving him here just because Brian Bannister was the one running the pitching show in San Francisco when they surprisingly signed Hicks to be a starter in 2023. That being said, if Hicks winds up starting more than a low single digit number of games in 2026, a lot of things have probably gone wrong. 

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Fifth/Sixth Starter Battle Royale (Young Wild Cards)

David Sandlin/Tanner McDougal
Neither of these guys have the upper-minors experience you see out of typical rotation candidates, but the modern game has increasingly leaned towards eschewing the traditional minor league ladder, especially when it comes to pitching. You only have so many bullets in your arm, the thinking goes. If a guy might be ready, why not spend those bullets where it matters most?

Again, I’d be pretty surprised if we make it halfway through spring games before word (or video) starts spreading of somebody looking completely reinvented. If it should be one of these two, there might not be any sense in giving them the cursory Triple-A look before tossing them out there against big leaguers to see if they’ll swim. 

Hagen Smith/Noah Schultz
The only thing that separates the two lefties from those two above is that their pedigree and upside is high enough that you probably don’t want to risk throwing them off the deep end into the major leagues. That being said, everyone knows that the stuff being big-league caliber isn’t the question. If either of these two comes into camp looking like something’s clicked with their command and repeatability in their mechanics, they’ll still probably be asked to work through a few tune-up starts in the high minors. But again, this is the modern game, and with pitching, anything goes. If Hagen Smith is magically filling up the strike zone all of a sudden when we first see him, the list of reasons to keep him down becomes thin. 

That’s about the biggest what-if you can imagine, which is why it’s at the bottom of this list.

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Have at me in the comments. I know we’re all looking forward to seeing what things look like a month from now.

These articles are a part of a series and are designed to be consumed as an entire series, but I know we get new readers every day. So, we will reset the conversation to the beginning. This series is about looking at specific underlying numbers to get a handle on what hitters might do in the coming season. The idea is to avoid magical thinking whenever possible. Magical thinking is simply taking the most positive outlook on a player, team, or situation and assuming that is the likely result.

Could Christian Walker bounce back and have a year close to what he produced in Arizona? Sure, it’s possible. Could Isaac Paredes do what he did last year, but do it over 150 games? Sure, it’s possible. However, what we want to do is look at is most likely. When we look at the underlying numbers, we get an explanation for why things turned out the way they did. We also get a sneak peek at what categories players could target improvement in. Before we get to that though, we need a quick tutorial on the numbers we will use.

• Chase rate: This is the percentage of balls a player swings at outside of the zone. The league average normally lives between 30 and 32 percent, but we will be looking at three year intervals and we should notice trends more than where a player is in relationship to the league average.
• Hard hit percentage: This is simply the percentage of balls that a player hits hard. Hard hit balls become hits and extra base hits more often than softer contact. Typically 35 percent is around the league average in this category.
• BABIP: This is batting average on balls in play. Home runs are obviously excluded since they are not in play. The league average tends to hover around .300 but it will largely depend on hard hit percentages and breakdowns between groundballs, flyballs, and line drives.
• Contact percentage: This is the percentage of swings that turn into contact. Typically 70-75 percent is around league average.
• HR/FB percentage: This is the percentage of flyballs that result in home runs. Ten percent is typically around the league average.

Christian Walker

	Chase	Hardhit	BABIP	Contact	HR/FB
2023	26.8	40.3	.272	75.4	15.9
2024	24.2	48.0	.287	76.2	15.7
2025	28.6	46.1	.291	71.3	14.7
Aggregate	26.5	44.8	.283	74.3	15.4

I hate to oversimplify everything, but there are essentially three tools at play here. The first tool is the plate discipline tool. It is simply the ability to distinguish between balls and strikes. Walker is above average in that category, but showed some slippage last season. He seemed to have slower bat speed last season, but came into camp this year ten pounds lighter. Does that help him up that bat speed? If so, he might have that extra split second to lay off of pitches outside the zone like he did in 2023 and 2024.

The second tool is the ability to hit for power. You do that through your hard hit rate and home runs per flyball rate. Walker is close to elite in this category. He generates more power and hits more home runs per flyball than most of the hitters in baseball. There are isolated guys better in the hard hit category and home run category, but he is really strong there.

The last category is the ability to make contact consistently which scouts call the hit tool. This is where we saw major slippage. The scouting report says he struggled to catch up to heat on a consistent basis. However, Walker was never gifted in this department. He has always had swing and miss in his game. If he could return to career norms in both contact rates and chase rates he could elevate himself back to where he was in Arizona. However, given that he is entering his mid thirties that might prove harder than it sounds.

Isaac Paredes

	Chase	Hardhit	BABIP	Contact	HR/FB
2023	28.5	28.5	.257	82.8	16.9
2024	26.2	27.1	.259	83.7	9.4
2025	22.9	33.6	.268	85.5	14.0
Aggregate	25.9	29.7	.261	84.0	13.4

What’s interesting about Paredes is that he plays up in certain ballparks. The lack of hard hit contact limits his effectiveness unless he has that short porch to left field. In 2024 he went to the Cubs and practically disappeared. Like Walker, he is good at two of the three tools. He recognizes balls and strikes and is also elite at putting the bat on the ball. Unfortunately, he doesn’t hit the ball hard, so he will always struggle to hit for average even with those contact rates.

Of course, the difficulty and difference between the scouting world and the analytical world is that the scouting world treats all tools equally. He has the plate discipline tool and a portion of the hit tool (the contact portion), He has the power portion in certain ballparks. Yet, that plate discipline is an elite tool and creates value maybe more than his inability to make hard contact hurts him.

There are fewer and fewer dunces in MLB, so general managers know all of this. So, this presented Dana Brown with a challenge because it meant finding a team that needed a third baseman/first baseman who also had a home ballpark that would suit Paredes. Ironically, the same could be said for Walker as well because he plays up in ballparks with short left field porches. Generally, it is a good thing to have players that are more valuable to you than other teams, but that always presents a problem when you try to move them. So, what do you think? Can we expect a bounce back season from Walker? Will Paredes stay healthy and productive?