Category: Baseball

The New York Mets (50-66) travel to the best stadium in baseball, PNC Park, to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (57-60). The Pirates find themselves four and a half games out of the last Wild Card spot, but went hard after relief pitching at the deadline, acquiring four bullpen arms, including Luke Weaver from the Mets, in an effort to close the gap in the Wild Card race.

The Mets took the opposite approach, giving up on their (far fetched) postseason dreams and trading away (almost) everyone who wasn’t looking to be a part of their 2027 and beyond plans. The Mets traded eight players from their big league roster (and one minor leaguer) over the deadline long weekend, restocking their minor league rosters and admitting that 2026 just wasn’t their year.

Apparently, the players on both teams didn’t get the memo from their front offices.

Now, extremely small sample size caveats apply here, but the Mets haven’t lost since the deadline, scoring 25 runs in three games, sweeping the (presumably) playoff bound Guardians. The Pirates on the other hand, lost three of four and scoring just 12 runs in four games against the owners of the best record in baseball, the Milwaukee Brewers.

Do I think this trend continues? I do not; the Pirates are a much more complete team than the Mets, and the Mets are about to play a stretch where they are going up against much better teams. But it’s been fun to watch the Mets’ new, young bullpen be solid and see some of the bats lock in. I do not think that the Mets will lose their position in the basement of the NL East, but it is admittedly fun to watch them play better baseball.

Robert Stock’s second Mets’ start should be fun this weekend, and getting to watch Carson Benge continue to grow and impress has been a real treat. The rest of this season matters so little that we need to recalibrate our expectations beyond just wins and losses. The final 45 games of the season are an opportunity to answer some questions and get a sense of what the team has before looking to free agency and trades in the offseason to ensure that next August isn’t as pointless as this one.

Friday, August 7: Zac Thornton vs Carmen Mlodzinski,  6:40pm EDT on PIX11

Thornton (2026): 34.1 IP, 24 K, 10 BB, 3 HR, 2.88 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 71 ERA-

Watching Thornton pitch, at least up until now, has been watching someone work through and around his limitations in real time. Unlike his rotation makes Christian Scott and Nolan McLean, the stuff isn’t overpowering, but Thornton has proven himself fairly adept at the tight-rope walk thus far. His ERA, nearly a full run lower than his FIP, shows that some regression is likely, but even a mid-threes ERA for a soft-tossing lefty would be a good result for Thornton.

Mlodzinski (2026): 94.1 IP, 76 K, 31 BB, 7 HR, 3.15 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 74 ERA-

After nine starts earlier this season, Mlodzinski has been working primarily out of the bullpen since mid-May. He’s been a consistent and effective multi-inning reliever for Pittsburgh, but he’s not entirely stretched out, so it’s unclear how long he’ll be able to go tonight.

Saturday, August 8: Robert Stock vs  Bubba Chandler, 6:40pm EDT on SNY

Stock (2026): 5.0 IP, 4 K, 0 BB, 1 HR, 1.80 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 44 ERA-

It’s hard not to root for guys like Stock. A veteran, a guy who had Thoracic Outlet Syndrome treatment earlier this year, and a player dedicated to sticking around baseball as long as he can, Stock’s start on Sunday was the culmination of a dream. If he can have a strong start on Saturday, that dream changes and adapts yet again, from a one-shot deal to, maybe, someone who can sustain this success over a few starts. If he succeeds at that, well then who knows?

Chandler (2026): 110.1 IP, 98 K, 61 BB, 10 HR, 4.49 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 105 ERA-

With an average fastball velocity of 98.5 MPH, there’s a lot to dream on with Chandler. However, a high walk rate and sky high exit velocity has somewhat limited Chandler’s success this season. For a team with playoff ambitions that seem to be slipping away, Chandler racking up a string of good starts in a row would go a long way towards that postseason dream.

Sunday, August 9: Sean Manaea vs Jared Jones, 1:40pm EDT on SNY

Manaea (2026): 97.2 IP, 95 K, 35 BB, 13 HR, 4.33 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 107 ERA-

Manaea’s season has been so weird, but with the emptied ranks after the trade deadline, Manaea is the veteran presence in the starting rotation, and his ability to scrape and adapt this season is a great lesson for the kids trying to learn how to sustain a big league career. While his fastball velocity is (mostly) back, its more about how he’s been able to navigate that process than the results themselves. Whether or not Manaea has a role on the 2027 team remains to be seen, but for now, we should be grateful that he’s been able to turn himself into a cromulent starting pitcher for August and September, because it sure didn’t look like that in March and April.

Jones(2026): 56.0 IP, 62 K, 16 BB, 9 HR, 4.02 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 94 ERA-

Since his return from Tommy John Surgery in late May, ones has been solid for the Pirates. Another flamethrowing righty, what sets Jones apart from Chandler is his much better control. Jones is still working off the rust of not pitching in a professional game for a year, but he’s had a few fantastic starts that point towards what Jones has the potential to be, as he just turned 25 years old on Thursday (happy belated birthday, JJ).

The Texas Rangers activated infielder Cody Freeman from the 10 day injured list on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, and optioned him to AAA Round Rock. In addition, on Wednesday, August 5, 2026, the Rangers activated Cody Bradford from the 60 day injured list. To make room for Bradford on the active roster, pitcher MacKenzie Gore was placed on the paternity list. The 40 man roster had an open spot, so no move was necessary to put Bradford back on the 40 man roster. The 40 man roster is now full.

This is just catching up on a couple of transactions from earlier this week. Freeman had been placed on the major league injured list due to a herniated disc in his neck, which he underwent surgery for on June 29. He started a rehab assignment with the ACL Rangers on July 20, played three games there, and then had the reahab assignment moved to Round Rock on July 25, where he’s been playing since.

Freeman started the season on the injured list due to a stress reaction in his lumbar area, which kept him out until mid-May. That resulted in him spending four days with the ACL club on a rehab assignment in mid-May, then playing three games for Frisco later in the month before joining Round Rock. He was called up and appeared in one game in early June before being sent back down, then was called up again a week later, playing in six games for the big league club before being put on the injured list on June 25 for the herniated disc.

Its been a frustrating season for Freeman, who was in the mix for a job on the Opening Day roster this spring before being sidelined by the injury. He’s appeared in just 32 games between the ACL, AA and AAA this year, accumulating 137 plate appearances, along with seven games in the majors.

Bradford’s return provided a much-needed boost to the Rangers, as he went 4.1 scoreless innings in his starts on Wednesday against the Giants in what was a 6-0 Rangers win, a game I attended (and thus wasn’t able to post about when the move happened, since I was driving to the Shed). Its been a long road back from internal brace surgery for Bradford, who was initially anticipated to potentially be back as soon as early May. However, after a rehab appearance for Round Rock on April 2, he reported soreness in the elbow and was shut down for a period of time.

The Rangers having MacKenzie Gore go on the paternity list gave them the ability to carry an extra arm and put off the decision on who to remove from the active roster for a brief period of time. A player can spend up to three days on the paternity list, so Gore will have to be activated either today or tomorrow. Assuming there are no injuries out there we aren’t aware of, Nolan Kingham would seem likely to be the guy dropped from the active roster.

The Rangers also have a decision to make in regards to Jordan Montgomery, who made his eighth rehab start for Round Rock this past Sunday, August 2, throwing 86 pitches over five shutout innings. I would assume that Montgomery would be activated for this weekend’s series rather than making another rehab appearance. Skip Schumaker has said that Montgomery could be used either in the rotation or in a relief role, and my guess is that he’ll be working out of the bullpen, at least initially, given there’s not currently an open spot in the Rangers’ rotation, and given that Montgomery’s stuff in his rehab appearances has been down compared to where he was pre-injury.

Montgomery will need a 40 man roster spot when he is activated, which could result in Kingham getting designated for assignment rather than simply optioned if the Rangers send down one of their relievers with options, such as Ben Peoples, Peyton Gray or Robby Ahlstrom, to make room for Montgomery. Cal Quantrill and Cole Winn are both out of options, so should the Rangers opt to cut loose one of them to make room for Montgomery, that would open up a 40 man roster spot, which would allow the Rangers to option Kingham, should they choose, rather than designate him for assignment.

Cam Caminiti had a matchup with Jesus Made and the Biloxi Shuckers in his first taste of Double-A action, and he rose to the challenge nicely with a solid start. Caminiti’s pitching helped the Clingstones stay in position for a walk-off win. In Single-A Davis Polo kept his magnificent run of pitching going with six innings despite being pushed back due to a rain delay, and Owen Murphy only allowed one hit over 4 2/3 innings for Gwinnett.

(57-53) Gwinnett Stripers 2, (55-54) Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp 0

Box Score

Statcast

• Patrick Clohisy, CF: 1-5, .411/.476/.658
• Carlos Santana, 1B: 2-3, BB, RBI, .286/.403/.397
• Owen Murphy, SP: 4.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 3.56 ERA
• Ray Kerr, RP: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 0.00 ERA

It was an interesting start for Owen Murphy. He was effective on the box score, allowing one hit and no runs, but this was absolutely not his best start. To kick it off his velocity was (narrowly) his lowest in any Triple-A outing this season, bucking a trend of rising velocity in recent games, and that was particularly notable when he fell off of a cliff in the fourth inning. It was across the board for his pitches so it wasn’t a case of him taking a bit off to try to throw strikes, though he also had his worse game command-wise since his very early outings in Gwinnett. He was not himself and it turned into him not being able to get whiffs on his fastball and allowing loads of hard contact in the game, though no one ever quite squared him up and made him pay. Health-wise Murphy seems fine, and his fastball spin rates were in their normal range, he just was not throwing well and the drop in velocity just compounded a poor command outing. Murphy is, in fairness, already well past his career high in innings (101 2/3 vs 89 2/3 in 2023 and 30 1/3 last season), so him pitching at all this late in the season really is a boon to his development. Seeing some fatigue-related struggles happen on and off shouldn’t be a surprise and that’s really what it seems like for Murphy as this game is out of character based on recent weeks. Ray Kerr made his first appearance in Triple-A after successful rehab starts at the lower levels, and he looked fine. He got a bunch of whiffs on his curveball and pitched well for four batter, though unsurprisingly his velocity and spin are way down at the moment. Kerr will need to regain that velocity to be a real candidate for major league action again, though for right now the focus is health and that will be something more likely discussed next spring rather than in the final month of the Triple-A season if he stays with the organization.

This is the first time Patrick Clohisy has had a game that you can reasonably call bad, and he still had his moments, kind of. Clohisy got a solid swing on the ball in the first inning but flew out to the opposite field warning track, and landed himself on base in the seventh inning with a bloop hit into right field. He then got picked off, though that did not deter Gwinnett from stringing together a rally and scoring the only two runs of the game. Clohisy’s other three at-bats were strikeouts. Clohisy had to face off with lefty Dax Fulton and he was struggling a bit as the Jumbo Shrimp were not giving him many fastballs to work with. He attacked those as well he could but only had the first inning solid contact and couldn’t make due with any of the others. When they got him down in the count he had trouble making contact with secondaries, and also chased three sliders out of the strike zone.

Swing and Misses

Owen Murphy – 9

Ray Kerr – 5

(47-53) Columbus Clingstones 3, (55-46) Biloxi Shuckers 2

Box Score

• Eric Hartman, LF: 0-3, BB, .182/.357/.182
• John Gil, SS: 0-4, .250/.286/.250
• Owen Carey, RF: 0-2, .100/.308/.100
• Cam Caminiti, SP: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 3;38 ERA

Cam Caminiti got a welcome to Double-A moment on his very first pitch at the level, but bounced back with a solid, though unfinished outing. Caminiti tried to groove a fastball to the leadoff hitter, Brewers #5 prospect Josh Adamczewski, and the dude was sat back waiting on it, and hit a nuke out to right field for a leadoff home run. That’s not an ideal start, but Caminiti really didn’t let it get to him. Caminiti had three matchups with Jesus Made in this game, and he got the best of those at bats every time. Caminiti got Made to expand and tap a grounder back to the mound immediately after that home run, and got a ground out and routine fly out in the other two matchups. Caminiti fanned Adamczewski swinging in their next matchup and then got him on a called strike three in the fifth inning, and outside of that home run Caminiti was in control early in this game. Caminiti didn’t have his best slider and left a few too many up in the zone, a refrain common to the games Caminiti has been rough this season, but his fastball location was on point and he was able to mix his pitches well and handle a great offense. His command fell off a bit late in the game and he labored without his slider to really seal at-bats quickly after getting to two strikes, but for the first four innings of the game he was fully himself and did a great job of tackling a strong lineup and a new level without even having his best stuff. Caminiti has impressed with his resilience this season and his ability to make adjustments and improvements, and he looked prepared to take on Double-A in his first outing even if his numbers don’t completely reflect that.

It was a great thing that Caminiti was the headliner of this game, because the position player prospects gave us nothing. The trio of top players combined to get zero hits, and they didn’t look particularly threatening with their contact either. The best of them was definitely Eric Hartman, who first made an appearance with a walk and a stolen base. Later in the game Hartman hit a sharp ball to left field, and the defender gave it a few twists and turns and seemed to have trouble tracking it but it was too direct on to really escape him and turned into a fly out. Hartman hasn’t made a huge impact in his first three games but he hasn’t looked bad at the plate at all, taking some good at bats and at least stressing the other team by getting on base and stealing bags. Hartman’s progression in his approach this season has been promising to watch, and those sorts of adjustments are the things that really separate successful prospects from hitters who flame out in the upper levels, and so far Hartman looks like he is just a half step away from turning it back to 100 in Columbus. The team ended up taking a one run deficit into the ninth inning, where they potentially lost another player to hit by pitch on the wrist. Carson Taylor, who has been terrific for the Clingstones in limited action, took one off the hand and had to leave the game, but that would spark a game-winning rally. A two out error kept the inning going before a walk loaded the bases, bringing up Ambioris Tavarez in a dream situation with a chance to tie or win the game. Tavarez gapped a hard line drive for a walk off single, winning the game for Columbus.

Swing and Misses

Cam Caminiti – 9

Anderson Pilar – 8

(49-52) Rome Emperors 6, (64-41) Greensboro Grasshoppers 7

Box Score

• Luis Guanipa, LF: 0-5, .071/.071/.071
• Conor Essenburg, RF: 3-4, 2B, BB, 3 RBI, .333/.429/.417
• Alex Lodise, SS: 1-5, HR, .219/.342/.406
• Luke Sinnard, SP: 3.1 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 3.32 ERA

It’s return start number two for Luke Sinnard, and it was a massive improvement over a shaky first start even if he didn’t maintain his best throughout the evening. Sinnard had on-and-off issues with his location throughout the outing, and for a guy who typically has great body control despite his large statue he had some trouble repeating his delivery in this game. Sinnard was consistently missing on the glove side and had many occasions where he got in front of himself and pulled pitches well out of the strike zone, but found some rhythm the more the game went on. He seemed to figure out the mechanical troubles even with a few bad mistakes coming in later innings, and both his fastball and slider missed bats. He ended up not doing a great job in 0-2 counts and didn’t finish off plate appearances efficiently, and the second time through the order turned into trouble as a result. Sinnard issued a walk and then got burned by the BABIP gods on a soft pop up down the first base line, but got ahead of the next guy quickly with a chance to end his day with a big out. He failed to make an effective pitch in that situation, and wound up hanging a 2-2 slider right over the heart of the plate that got bashed for a three-run home run. Sinnard is absolutely not as sharp with his pitches as he was early in the season and it may take a few more for him to really work back, though this is still a massive step forward from where he was last week. The goal now is just to stay healthy through the end of the season and prove he is ready to make the jump to Columbus next year, something that seemed destined after his first five starts before going down with injury.

It has been quite refreshing to watch Alex Lodise since his promotion to High-A. Lodise has suddenly been making a lot more contact since his promotion, and over the past two games the power has started to come out as well. He hit his first High-A home run last night and followed it up in the first inning of this game by ambushing a first pitch fastball and hitting a laser into the Rome bullpen. Lodise is still getting most of his results on fastballs and will likely always be that guy, which is fine as long as he limits the amount that he chases after breaking balls out of the strike zone. He did go after a slider off of the plate in his second at bat, but it was a close pitch in a 2-2 count so it’s hard to fault him for that. Overall he has made somewhat better swing decisions since being promoted, and progress is all you’re looking for from him right now. Conor Essenburg had a terrific game with three hits, and he really hasn’t seemed to be having trouble with the increase in level of pitching. Essenburg didn’t really get any of the pitches he had hits on squarely, but the process to get to his swings was sound and he did end up making solid enough contact to get results. Among the big trio of prospects Essenburg is definitely the one you would expect to have the least trouble adjusting and that has held true so far. That is not at all the case for Luis Guanipa. He has struggled and even when he is making good swing decisions he isn’t really attacking with the mindset to do damage. Of course he is still expanding the strike zone, but even on pitches inside the strike zone he is doing a lot of just punching at the ball even in favorable counts. One example came in the fourth inning when Guanipa went after a first pitch slider that spun high and over the inside corner of the plate. In and of itself that’s not a bad swing decision, especially for a player like Guanipa who we’ve seen demolish pitches on the inner half, but instead of looking to drive the ball on his pull side he just stayed closed and did that a push swing he likes when he is trying to shoot singles into right field and he popped the ball up to second base. For Guanipa it’s not just what he swings at but what he is looking to do when he does swing and it doesn’t really feel like he has a good idea of who he wants to be as a hitter despite having flashes of brilliance this season.

Swing and Misses 

Luke Sinnard – 8

Riley Frey – 7

Drew Christo – 5

(57-46) Augusta GreenJackets 3, (61-41) Hickory Crawdads 2

Box Score

• Parker Brosius, LF: 1-2, BB, .667/.714/1.667
• Nick Montgomery, DH: 1-4, HR, 2 RBI, .190/.335/.387
• Juan Mateo, SS: 2-3, 2B, RBI, .251/.332/.342
• Davis Polo, SP: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 3.34 ERA
• Daniel Brooks, RP: 3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, 0.98 ERA

This game had a lengthy rain delay before it could even get underway, and when it did start it quickly became a game the GreenJackets might have wished to avoid despite them earning the win. It has been a nightmarish start for Manuel Campos in his first chance to play full season ball and in the first inning it got even worse for him. On a chopper up the middle he and Joe Olsavsky collided, and after both stayed on the ground for a length of time they had to be removed from the game likely for fear of head injuries . Olsavsky chased the ball low and ran into Campos’s outstretched arm, and though he had direct contact he ended up being the first off of the ground though he did not remain in the game. The collision itself did less damage to Campos, but it spun him around awkwardly and he fell backwards and hit the back of his head on the infield dirt. Campos remained down getting tended to for nearly five minutes, though he and Olsavsky both were able to get up and walk off under their own power.

The game itself took a bit of time to unravel, and much of that had to do with terrific pitching from the Augusta staff. Davis Polo has been one of the outstanding pitchers in the system throughout this season and kept his month and a half long streak of terrific pitching going with his cleanest outing of the season, even if things got a bit shaky for him later in the game. Polo worked with a heavy dose of sinkers in this game, somewhat eschewing usage of his slider, though at times throughout the game he was able to work all three of his pitches to force whiffs. Polo generated mostly ground balls when the Crawdads did make contact and little of that came off of the bat solidly, and Polo pounded the strike zone and worked through the lineup efficiently. Likely the only thing that kept Polo from pitching at least one inning deeper into this game was the rain delay interrupting his routine as he ended the day with only 78 pitches thrown. He did have a shade of inconsistency sneak in during the sixth inning, but given the contact he produced he should have gotten out of the inning much more quickly. A grounder into the hole was too far away for Juan Mateo to really get a good chance at leading to an infield single, then a bouncer over to third got away for an error and Mateo hit a batter to load the bases. Polo locked in and leaned into his slider once the going got tough, immediately recording a strikeout for the second out, but ended up not escaping as a hitter was able to scoop a low sinker into right field for a two-run single. Outside of the laborious sixth Polo had no real issue at all and even at his worst made solid pitches in that inning and should be commended for another great outing. Daniel Brooks has been outlandishly good for Augusta this season but somehow keeps taking his outings to new levels. He absolutely ripped through this lineup without a hint of trouble, striking out a season high seven batters while not allowing a single baserunner in three innings. Brooks produces such a severe downward tilt and his breaking ball tumbles out of the hand in a way that hitters at this level don’t really have a great answer for. He has 21 strikeouts to only two walks over his past 11 innings of work.

Offensively the GreenJackets didn’t have much success, but with pitching like they saw they didn’t need but a couple of clutch hits to take over this game. In the second inning Juan Mateo, who was pressed into the shortstop role after Campos had to leave the game, came up to bat with an opportunity with two runners on base. Mateo hit a soft liner out to right field for a base hit, giving Augusta an early lead and one which they wouldn’t relinquish. Mateo added a double in the fifth inning when he scooped an outside curveball into the corner, but that wasn’t the biggest hit of the game by any stretch. In the sixth inning Parker Brosius, who was only in the game due to being Olsavsky’s replacement, led off with a sharp base hit for his lone hit on the day. Nick Montgomery came up with two outs and got a hanging breaking ball that he did not miss, crushing a no-doubt two run home run to break the game open. Montgomery hasn’t had consistent playing time since coming off of the injured list in July, but despite the loads of strikeouts still marring his performance he has managed to be one of the lineup’s most productive hitters. He’s calmed down his tendency to chase out of the strike zone and has drawn a lot more walks as a result, and since really getting back into action with the Salem series he has three home runs in nine games.

Swing and Misses

Davis Polo – 13

Daniel Brooks – 10

This really is a crucial series for the Guardians.

The White Sox lead the AL Central and have a 4-3 season series lead against Cleveland so far this season. Both teams enter the series having been swept… Cleveland by the pitiful Mets and Chicago by the scorching hot Red Sox.

The White Sox are 59-55 with a +38 run differential, 13th in wRC+ at 101, 20th in baserunning runs above average at -3.4, 13th in Defense at -12.5, 19th in starting pitcher ERA at 4.34 (4.28 FIP) and 10th in bullpen ERA at 3.82 (4.01 FIP).

The Guardians are 57-59 with a -28 run differential, 25th in wRC+ at 93, 6th in baserunning runs above average at +5.6, 10th in Defense at -6.3, sixth in starting pitcher ERA at 3.69 (3.91 FIP) and eighth in bullpen ERA at 3.81 (3.81 FIP).

Matchups:

Friday, 7:40PM ET Noah Schultz LHP vs. Parker Messick, LHP

Saturday, 7:15PM ET Anthony Kay, RHP vs. Gavin Williams, RHP

Sunday, 2:10PM ET Davis Martin, RHP vs. Joey Cantillo, LHP

The White Sox are led by Muntaka Murakami at 151 wRC+, Randal Grichuk at 137 wRC+, Miguel Vargas at 129 wRC+, Sam Antonacci at 121 wRC+, Chase Meidroth at 110 wRC+, Andrew Benintendi at 105 wRC+, Tristan Peters at 104 wRC+ and Colson Montgomery at 104 wRC+.

The Guardians are led by Chase DeLauter at 125 wRC+, Nate Lowe at 123 wRC+, Travis Bazzana 109 wRC+, Austin Hedges 108 wRC+, Jose Ramirez 101 wRC+, Brayan Rocchio 101 wRC+ and Steven Kwan 101 wRC+.

The season comes down to this. Wither goest thou, Guardians?

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The Chicago Cubs are -170 moneyline favorites in Kevin Gausman's first start for the team when they visit the Kansas City Royals.

Paired with a red-hot offense, I see some value in backing Chicago as heavy favorites with my Cubs vs. Royals predictions and MLB picks.

Who will win Cubs vs Royals today: Chicago Cubs (-170)

Kevin Gausman’s2.27 FIP over the past 30 days indicates he has pitched much better than the 4.71 ERA, and the tide should start to turn in his Chicago Cubs debut.

He is limiting hard contact well, and hasn’t allowed a homer over 21 innings during that span. Gausman’s well-equipped to limit power against the Kansas City Royals, who only rank 25th in homers this season.

The Cubs are a distant first in OPS and wOBA vs. lefties the last month, and should cause problems for Daniel Lynch in his debut start of the season.

Bet to -182.

COVERS INTEL: Gausman ranks in the 95th percentile in fastball run value, and the Royals have only hit .238 against that pitch the past 10 games.

Cubs vs Royals Over/Under pick: Under 9.0 (+100)

I’ve talked about Gausman’s power prevention, and his ability to limit walks should help him keep traffic off the basepaths against a Royals team that can really run.

Chicago’s bullpen – although a little taxed – also sits 11th in xFIP the past 30 days. The Cubs are set up well to limit runs throughout this game.

I do project the Cubs for 5.2 runs against Lynch and a struggling batch of relievers, but my model still sees this game going Under the number.

I would play this to -114.

Cubs vs Royals weather

The forecast calls for temperatures in the mid 80s with small winds blowing out. Boost to the bats.

Cubs vs Royals odds

• Moneyline: Cubs -170 | Royals +145
• Run line: Cubs -1.5 (-105) | Royals +1.5 (-115)
• Over/Under: Over 9.0 (-120) | Under 9.0 (+100)

Cubs vs Royals trend

Kansas City has hit the Game Total Under in 11 of the last 15 games (+7.85 units, 48% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Royals.

How to watch Cubs vs Royals and game info

Cubs vs Royals latest injuries

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Before the trade deadline, I asked who the Red Sox shortstop would be in the month of September. Nine days later, we only have a slightly clearer idea of that answer. Andruw Monasterio is hardly a wizard with the glove, but he has put up an OPS above .900 over the last 13 games, all of which he’s started. But Franklin Arias is tearing it up in his introduction to AAA and Trevor Story is said to be close to starting a rehab assignment. So who is it going to be? “Physical gifts and tools wise, you can watch Franklin and feel like this guy’s going to play in the big leagues. But you never know,” Chad tracy said of Arias. “The best thing you could do is [ask], does he have the physical skills to do it? And do you like the character and the mental capacity and the ability to overcome things when they aren’t going right? Those are two big ones. By all intents and purposes, from what I know about the kid, he’s got those skills.” (Tim Healey, Boston Globe)

If you’re a believer in momentum, then the answer to the shortstop question is don’t mess with what’s working and keep Monasterio where he is. But the history of Major League Baseball suggests that momentum doesn’t exist — that’s the underlying message of the whole “momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher” thing we’ve been hearing forever. But in light of how this season has played out, it’s hard not to rethink things. “As it turns out, baseball streaks tend to be somewhat self-sustaining. A Globe analysis of Retrosheet data that includes the outcome of every MLB game from 1901 through 2025 revealed a striking pattern: The longer a winning streak lasts, the higher a team’s winning percentage in the next game.” (Alex Speier, Boston Globe)

Garrett Crochet has missed this entire run, of course. And while he’s finally started throwing baseballs again, he has likely run out of time to complete a full rehab that would see him return as a starter. So will he come back in a relief capacity? “If he’s healthy and right, and he looks like Garrett Crochet, I think we’d be foolish not to consider that,” said Chad Tracy. (Ian Browne, MLB.com)

If Crochet does join the bullpen, Crochet will find himself alongside some of the best relievers in baseball, a list that no longer just includes Aroldis Chapman and Garrett Whitlock, but Brayan Bello now as well. (Colin Kennedy, 98.5)

And when he comes back, hopefully he’ll be throwing to a completely healthy Adley Rutschman, who looked good on the field before last night’s game:

Regardless of what happens with Crochet, this season has already been one of the most improbable campaigns in Red Sox history. And it may end with one of the most improbable Manager of the Year awards in MLB history. (Matt Vautour, MassLive)

The Nats playoff dreams got buried this week with a 1-7 road trip against the Braves and Phillies. These veteran laden squads taught the young Nats a lesson and showed they were not ready yet. In a season where the Nats have taken so many steps in the right direction, winning against divisional foes remains a challenge.

On the season, the Nats have gone 11-24 against NL East foes according to my count. If you take out the last place Mets, the Nats are 7-21. These numbers are why the Nats are not going to be battling for a playoff spot down the stretch. If the Nats did not have such massive issues with the Marlins and did not blow all those leads against the Phillies, we could be in a very different spot.

However, the reality is that the Nats sit here on August 7th with a 56-61 record and have their tail between their legs. The roster is now depleted due to trades and injuries. It also looks like the confidence is starting to waiver. Given the lack of pitching on this roster, this day was likely inevitable, but it is still painful.

This week showed that the Nats still have a long way to go to catch these monsters of the east. You are not going to be a playoff team if you cannot beat teams in your own division. The inability to pitch to these veteran lineups is probably a reason Paul Toboni invested so heavily in pitching at the deadline.

Elite offense makes a team fun, but you need pitching to win championships. This lack of pitching shows up the most against teams that see your arms consistently. Braves and Phillies hitters were just all over Nats pitching this week.

That Braves series was particularly ugly. It just felt like the Braves took the Nats soul that weekend. Even Braves writers were struck at how much they absolutely buried the Nats. They showed this team levels.

As you would expect from a team that has been bad for a long time, teams in the division have feasted on the Nats. However, even last year it was not this bad. In 2025, the Nats went 21-31 against the NL East. The Nats would have to go on a real run to match that number this season.

Heading into 2027, whenever that season starts, a big goal needs to be winning against divisional foes. Teams like the Phillies and Braves in particular are measuring sticks for this team. Back in 2012, we knew that team was legit because they kept beating the Phillies, who had slapped them around for years.

Those Phillies, who feature former Nats extremely prominently will always be the ultimate measuring stick for this team. They are our biggest rival and have ruled the division with the Braves this decade. You cannot beat teams like this if you go 0 for 11 with RISP like the Nats did on Tuesday.

Under the new regime, this team has made a lot of progress. The offense has exploded and there has been so much development. However, this team is not where they need to be yet. It would be unrealistic for the regime to turn everything around in one year. Next year though, this team is going to have to be a lot better against the NL East.

This season has raised expectations moving forward. If the Nats are not in the playoff hunt down the stretch, that will be disappointing. This puts even more pressure on this group to beat the beasts of the east, which they have not shown the ability to do yet. Hopefully that will come as this team gains experience.

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Full slate Friday is here!

Let's get this weekend off and running by diving into my MLB moneyline predictions for every game on today's slate. 

Here are my latest MLB picks for Friday, Aug. 7.

MLB moneyline picks for August 7

Matchup	Pick
Mets vs Pirates	+125
Blue Jays vs Phillies	-203
Reds vs Nationals	+108
Braves vs Yankees	+135
Angels vs Marlins	-156
A's vs  Red Sox	+245
Guardians vs White Sox	-133
Twins vs Brewers	+170
Cubs vs Royals	-160
Orioles vs Rangers	+135
Rockies vs Cardinals	-156
Astros vs Padres	-115
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks	-167
Rays vs Mariners	+104
Tigers vs Giants	-122

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 8-7.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for August 7

Mets vs Pirates: Mets (+125)

Mets win probability: 44%

I like the Mets as a dog, mainly because their offense has been heating up, sporting a 121 wRC+, .339 wOBA and .778 OPS while making a ton of hard contact and barrels over their last six games.

On the other hand, the Pirates have posted a 60 wRC+, .251 wOBA and .534 OPS during that stretch.

Carmen Mlodzinski has been great for the Pirates, but he has allowed nearly 55% hard-hit and almost a 14% barrel rate to opposing hitters over his last three outings.

I want the dog!

Blue Jays vs Phillies: Phillies (-203)

Phillies win probability: 67%

From a moneyline standpoint, I hate that I wrote, “take the -203 favorite,” but there is nothing offensively for the Blue Jays that gives me even an ounce of hope here.

Over their last 12 games, they have not made hard contact or barrels, and their wRC+ is below 90. What am I supposed to believe in?

Meanwhile, the Phillies are making hard contact and own a 117 wRC+ and .775 OPS over their last 12 games.

Plus, Zack Wheeler has been phenomenal, while Jose Soriano, who is making his Blue Jays debut, has not been good since May.

Phillies.

Reds vs Nationals: Reds (+108)

Reds win probability: 48%

Question: what is with the Reds having pitchers with country-singer names? Rhett Lowder, now Chase Petty? I hear a dirt road lyric in the distance....

Anywho...

With the sudden coldness from the Nationals’ bats, plus losing James Wood to injury and Luis Garcia Jr. to the Yankees at the deadline, it is mainly CJ Abrams holding things down. Cade Cavalli has done a great job holding things down across his last few outings, but I can’t back a team that can’t score.

Reds.

Braves vs Yankees: Braves (+135)

Braves win probability: 42%

Do we not think this price is a little nuts?

Tyler Mahle has been solid in his last few outings, posting a 3.17 xERA over his last five starts and a 3.16 xERA over his last three. Max Fried makes the Yankees a -138 favorite? I’m good.

The Braves’ bats have been on fire as of late, while the Yankees can seemingly only score via the home run. Yeah, that’s one of the most sustainable ways to score. (Sarcasm.)

Angels vs Marlins: Marlins (-156)

Marlins win probability: 61%

I am not in love with paying this much juice for a lineup that has been pretty chilly as of late, but the Angels’ bats have been far colder.

Plus, Tyler Phillips has looked far better over his last five outings than George Klassen, who owns a 13.50 ERA over his last three starts while allowing a 50% hard-hit rate and 25% barrel rate.

I will happily take the fighting fish!

A's vs Red Sox: Athletics (+245)

Athletics win probability: 29%

The Boston Red Sox are easily the hottest team in baseball, coming off back-to-back sweeps against the Dodgers and White Sox. They needed extra innings to take down the White Sox on Thursday night, and I think continuing to back them as such a heavy favorite is silly.

Especially at -251. Should they really be this heavy of a favorite tonight? I don’t think so.

Yes, the Athletics’ offense has been a no-show as of late, but Jack Perkins has maintained a 3.61 xERA on the road this season. He also does not give up much hard contact or barrels.

For the price, I think it has to be the cityless Athletics.

Guardians vs White Sox: Guardians (-133)

Guardians win probability: 57%

Simply leaning with the better pitching in this spot, with both offenses being pretty lifeless. The White Sox are coming off a big loss to the Red Sox last night, while both teams are coming off getting swept.

Left-hander Parker Messick owns a sub-3.00 road ERA and a 1.46 ERA over his last three starts. Meanwhile, Noah Schultz has a 5.73 ERA over his last five.

I am out on the White Sox this evening.

Twins vs Brewers: Twins (+170)

Twins win probability: 37%

Trusting Zebby Matthews was not on my bingo card this morning, but here we are.

I’ll keep it simple. I am not paying near -180 for the Brewers here when their offense is cold. Sure, Shane Drohan has been lights out, but I just do not like the price.

Twins.

Cubs vs Royals: Cubs (-160)

Cubs win probability: 62%

Cubs or nothing here.

Mason Black has been horrendous over his last five outings and owns a 9.73 xERA on the road this season. The Royals are back to a wRC+ below 90 over their last 12 games, while the Cubs are absolutely scorching hot.

Pay the juice. Cubs or nothing.

Orioles vs Rangers: Orioles (+135)

Orioles win probability: 42%

Given how poorly Nathan Eovaldi has pitched over his last five starts, sporting a 5.67 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, I want to trust the Orioles as underdogs on Friday evening.

Meanwhile, Shane Baz owns a 2.63 ERA over his last five starts. Both offenses have been pretty lifeless, so this feels like a spot to lean into the arm that has been performing at a higher level lately.

Rockies vs Cardinals: Cardinals (-156)

Cardinals win probability: 61%

I will make this one easy.

Ryan Feltner owns an 8.75 ERA, 5.18 xERA and 1.94 WHIP over his last five starts. Over their last 12 games, the Rockies have a sub-90 wRC+, 3.2% barrel rate and 25% strikeout rate.

On the other side, Kyle Leahy has been shoving, posting a 1.38 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over his last five starts.

I do not care how much the Cardinals’ offense has been underperforming; Feltner will wake those bats.

Astros vs Padres: Padres (-115)

Padres win probability: 54%

Ronel Blanco could get shelled in this spot tonight against the Padres. The right-hander has yet to put together a solid start this season, and with how hot the Padres’ bats have been, I think they get to him early.

On the other side, Robbie Ray has been lights out, posting a 2.00 ERA over his last five outings.

I like San Diego here.

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks: Dodgers (-167)

Dodgers win probability: 62%

As wild as it is to type this, is there another team in baseball that needs a win more than the Dodgers?

They have been swept in back-to-back series and now draw Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks.

With it being Merrill Kelly, who owns a 7.23 xERA at home this season, and Roki Sasaki having far better numbers across his last three starts, I trust the Dodgers here.

Rays vs Mariners: Rays (+104)

Rays win probability: 49%

Simple.

I will not touch the Mariners until I see their team wRC+ climb back above 100. It has been sitting below 100 for over a month, and I want no part of this lifeless offense.

On the other side, you have one of the most consistent teams in baseball, and you are giving me them at plus money?

Rays, PLEASE!

Tigers vs Giants: Tigers (-122)

Tigers win probability: 55%

The Giants’ offense since the deadline has mainly been Rafael Devers and Jung Hoo Lee. The team owns an 80 wRC+, .277 wOBA, and .615 OPS over their last six games.

Meanwhile, the Tigers have posted a 172 wRC+, .414 wOBA, and .947 OPS during that stretch. They are on fire!

Keider Montero has been lights out on the road this season, posting a 2.11 ERA, 3.08 xERA and 0.70 WHIP.

I want to be on the Tigers tonight on the road!

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The San Diego Padres took a business-like approach to their final game against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday night. The end result was a 5-1 win that allowed the Padres to earn a series split and remain one game behind the Diamondbacks in the chase for a Wild Card berth in the playoffs. There are still a lot of games to be played, but San Diego manager Craig Stammen treated this game like a must-win.

Walker Buehler got the start on the mound for the Padres and was not overly dominant, but he did enough to hold the Diamondbacks to one run on six hits with one walk and three strikeouts over four innings. San Diego gave him a lead with a run in the first and two in the third and that was all the Padres would need.

Buehler departed the game and Bradgley Rodriguez took over. He worked two scoreless innings without allowing a hit or a walk and recorded a strikeout. That allowed Jeremiah Estrada to work a scoreless seventh inning, Adrian Morejon to work a scoreless eighth inning and Mason Miller to close out the game in the ninth inning despite it not being a save situation.

San Diego tacked on a run in the sixth and one in the seventh. What was notable about the way the Padres scored their runs was how they did it. The first run scored on a double play groundout and the second also scored on a ground out. Ty France hit a sacrifice fly to bring home the third run. Freddy Fermin recorded the first hit to score a run with a single in the sixth and Jackson Merrill did the same with a single in the seventh.

The Padres return home today to host the Houston Astros to open a three-game series at Petco Park. Robbie Ray is scheduled to make his first start for San Diego at 6:40 p.m. The Trade Deadline acquisition will look to make a better first impression with the club than Casey Mize did against the Diamondbacks on Wednesday.

Padres News:

• The Padres made three additions at the Trade Deadline and with the game tonight, the Friar Faithful will have had an opportunity to see all three perform in a San Diego uniform. There was a ton of speculation about what the Padres could, would and should do. With the deadline passed and moves made, how do you feel?

• David Morgan is still working through his rehab progression in an attempt to rejoin the San Diego bullpen.

• Nick Pivetta will have his rehab paused to have his elbow reevaluated after feeling tightness in his first rehab outing.

Baseball News:

• The Boston Red Sox refused to lose and won their eighth straight game.

• The Atlanta Braves continued their winning ways and extended their win streak to eight games.

• The Chicago Cubs topped the Toronto Blue Jays, 3-2 in 11 innings.

• Dustin May made his first start with the Milwaukee Brewers and led them to a win over the Pittsburgh Pirates.

• The Philadelphia Philles topped the Washington Nationals, 7-3.

• The Cincinnati Reds earned their first home sweep of the season with a win over the Athletics.

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A Hollywood, Florida bettor has turned an incredible stroke of luck into an improbable payout fit for the big screen.

Key Takeaways

• A Florida bettor turned a $15, 15-leg MLB parlay into a $149,477 payout after correctly picking every game on Tuesday's slate.
  
  
• The ticket included 14 moneyline picks and one runline bet, with upsets by the Mets, Cubs, and Tigers among the biggest results.
  
  
• The Rays' extra-inning comeback over the Rockies proved to be the bettor's closest call before the parlay was completed.

An unnamed bettor in the Sunshine State has won $149,477 thanks to a remarkable 15-leg parlay of MLB games across baseball’s Tuesday slate, nailing every single pick and returning nearly 10,000 times his mere $15 wager.

Per Hard Rock Bet, the sportsbook where the unidentified individual placed the parlay, the customer locked in his bets in the early hours of the morning at 6:35 a.m., putting together a parlay of 14 moneyline bets and one run line bet. 

Yesterday, a Florida bettor correctly parlayed ALL 15 games on the MLB slate...

The result? Almost 150K on a $15 dollar wager. 🤯 https://t.co/9wyHEHtfHwpic.twitter.com/YUMWylcz1s

— Hard Rock Bet (@HardRockBet) August 5, 2026

The full ticket included:

• Kansas City Royals +1.5 -125 (vs. Minnesota Twins)
• New York Yankees -165 (vs. St. Louis Cardinals)
• Cincinnati Reds -130 (vs. Athletics)
• Texas Rangers -185 (vs. San Francisco Giants)
• Philadelphia Phillies -230 (vs. Washington Nationals)
• Boston Red Sox -125 (vs. Chicago White Sox)
• Atlanta Braves -150 (vs. Miami Marlins)
• Houston Astros -125 (vs. Toronto Blue Jays)
• Milwaukee Brewers -155 (vs. Pittsburgh Pirates)
• Detroit Tigers +125 (vs. Seattle Mariners)
• Tampa Bay Rays -135 (vs Colorado Rockies)
• Mets +135 (vs. Cleveland Guardians)
• San Diego Padres +120 (vs. Arizona Diamondbacks)
• Chicago Cubs +190 (vs. Dodgers)
• Baltimore Orioles -145 (vs. Angels)

How the bettor won big

The bettor’s day started strong thanks to an Orioles win over the Angels; however, it didn’t take long for things to start falling in the Hollywood-native’s favor. 

In just the second game of the evening, the lowly New York Mets, who had sold off at the MLB trade deadline mere days before, upset the Cleveland Guardians 6-2 thanks to a trio of Mets home runs, including just the fourth of the year from Luis Torrens in the second inning to help New York out to a lead they wouldn’t relinquish.

The bettor’s next big stunner and perhaps most shrewd pick came thanks to the Chicago Cubs, facing newly acquired Dodgers ace Tarik Skubal in his debut in Dodger Blue following a blockbuster trade over the weekend. Despite the southpaw’s six punchouts, the Cubs mustered enough offense and shut down the L.A. bats in a massive 5-1 upset as home underdogs.

“You’ve got to kind of pick pitches at times,” Cubs skipper Craig Counsell said of facing Skubal. “With the great ones, that’s what you have to do. You have to pick pitches. We did a good job kind of creating a couple other scoring opportunities. That’s how you have to beat guys like that.”

The bettor’s' biggest scare, meanwhile, came from the ballclub just across the I-75 in the Tampa Bay Rays. On a day defined by good fortune for Florida sports betting, however, perhaps the Rays took inspiration, erasing a late deficit with a two-run ninth inning to force extra innings before knocking off the Colorado Rockies on the road in the 11th inning.

Tied in nine! pic.twitter.com/lY2JSNjztP

— Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) August 5, 2026

From there, it was smooth sailing until Detroit Tigers reliever Yilber Díaz slammed the door on the Seattle Mariners on their own home field in an 8-0 rout to conclude the day’s games and make the bettor a very wealthy man.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Detroit Tigers managed to take two of three from the Seattle Mariners with an 11-0 shellacking of the home team at T-Mobile Park on Thursday evening, making it seven of the last eight that they have scored eight runs or more. Framber Valdez gave his team seven shutout innings while Dillon Dingler and Kevin McGonigle both homered to help power the offense.

The Motor City Kitties now move on to San Francisco, where they play the final leg of their West Coast road swing against the Giants. Right-hander Keider Montero gets the start in the opener on Friday night looking to claw his team closer to the .500 mark as the season hits the home stretch.

The 26-year-old’s last start against the Athletics in Sacramento was a strong one, tossing six frames of scoreless ball on two hits and two walks while striking out two and hitting a batter. Montero’s efforts earned him his eighth win of the 2026 campaign in another 11-0 final.

The Giants’ starter for Friday’s game has yet to be announced as of the time of publication.

Detroit Tigers (56-59) vs. San Francisco Giants (48-67)

Time (ET): 10:15 p.m.
Place: Oracle Park, San Francisco, California
SB Nation Site:McCovey Chronicles
Media: Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network

Game 116: RHP Keider Montero (8-6, 3.17 ERA) vs. TBD

MONTERO

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The Pittsburgh Pirates are -135 moneyline to end their three-game losing streak tonight when they host the New York Mets. 

I'm skeptical they'll be able to do so, and see value in backing New York with my Mets vs. Pirates predictions and MLB picks for Friday, Aug. 7. 

Who will win Mets vs Pirates today: New York Mets (+115)

The Pittsburgh Pirates are struggling at the dish, hitting .234 the past month while striking out at the fourth-highest rate. Their outputs underwhelm against righties and lefties.

Zac Thornton has suppressed power effectively (0.79 HR/9) and held opponents to a .211 average this season. His counting numbers are a little deceiving, but this isn’t a matchup regression should come calling.

The New York Mets sit 15th in wOBA vs. righties over the last 30 days, and have shown good power with the fourth highest HR/FB rate.

I see plenty of value at this price. Bet to +100.

COVERS INTEL:The Pirates slot 22nd in ISO against lefties the last 30 days, playing further into Thornton's excellent home run prevention.

Mets vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-120)

The best way to score runs in bulk is power, and I don’t see a recipe for a lot of quick strike offense in this game.

Thornton has his faults but has done an exceptional job at keeping the ball in the park. The Pirates rank 29th in hard hit rate against lefties the past month, so they don’t profile as likely to change that.

Carmen Mlodzinski has also done a superb job of limiting homers (0.54 HR/9), and he has the seventh-best bullpen by xFIP the last month backing him up.

I make fair price -133.

Mets vs Pirates weather

Temperatures are expected to hover around 80, with showers and winds blowing from the west. No real impact on bats.

Mets vs Pirates odds

• Moneyline: Mets +115 | Pirates -135
• Run line: Mets +1.5 (-170) | Pirates -1.5 (+145)
• Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-120) | Under 8.0 (+100)

Mets vs Pirates trend

New York has hit the moneyline in eight of the last 11 away games (+5.55 units, 41% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Pirates.

How to watch Mets vs Pirates and game info

Mets vs Pirates latest injuries

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