
The offseason is here, and with it comes the natural discussions: who’s getting traded, who’s getting signed, and how long will we be without baseball for? Hopefully, not for long. The Guardians’ 2026 season wound up surpassing any and all expectations heading into the season, but building off an 85-win season and ALCS appearance can feel like a mountain to climb for a ball club unwilling to spend. Despite that, we’re going to look at a handful of free agents that Cleveland could take a look at this offseason to improve the roster for 2027*. Now, I know what you’re thinking, and you’re probably right. A Dolan ownership with a foot out the door isn’t going to spend. The Guardians started 2026 with baseball’s lowest payroll, and they’re going from 20.9% of that payroll being covered by arbitration salaries to a whopping 51.4%, per FanGraphs. Cleveland’s projected 2027* payroll sits somewhere just shy of $100-million. Arbitration alone makes a huge difference.
So, how realistic is any of this? For that answer, I recruited some help. You will see graphics throughout this article from my friend and data wizard, PastTheEyeTest. You will not find a more in-depth analytical baseball site that’s completely free like this, and he was kind enough to use his contract projection model to assist me in our endeavor here. I will then be grading on a 1-to-10 scale as to whether this player is feasible for the Guardians to sign.
The old saying goes we’re trying to turn F’s into C’s, and the trade deadline accomplished that in the short term. The addition of Foster Griffin will not be remembered as fondly as many would like it to be because Griffin regressed to his expected numbers and simply didn’t put up the same quality of outing as he did in Washington. That was still far better than what they were getting from Slade Cecconi, and when Tanner Bibee’s season took a sharp nosedive, Griffin stepped up in big spots and delivered strong outings in must-win games. This was less an F and more D-grade situation as Bibee was still generating innings eating outings, but Griffin gave Cleveland postseason innings that the other two were not trusted to provide. Griffin is set for free agency entering the ‘27 season, and Cleveland will be in dire need for starting pitching depth as their postseason run signified.
Gavin Williams was terrific this postseason, and Foster Griffin secured 10.1 innings of a 3.48 ERA (0.78 FIP) in both starting and bulk roles, but beyond the two of them, it was bleak. Parker Messick, coming off a truly historic rookie season, was visibly gassed each of his final two postseason outings showing shoddy command and little feel for his best pitches. He wasn’t throwing strikes, he was getting squared up, and two of the worst outings of his career happened just this October. There’s a deeper issue to be investigated here. Cleveland entered the season with the hopes that Tanner Bibee still had ace potential. They were very wrong. That misguided mindset created an excuse to not go and sign a starting pitcher, and the rookie Messick paid for it in innings. The brakes were never tapped for the rookie as Cleveland steamrolled its way into a divisional race with Messick headlining the rotation, and across August and September, he pitched into at least the sixth inning in 8 of his 11 starts, eclipsing 90 pitches in nine of those outings. To Messick’s credit, he was outstanding, and he will receive both Rookie of the Year and Cy Young votes because of his season. It also highlighted a need because while he was pitching like an ace, he ideally should not have been worked the way he was.
In the postseason, across 11 games, Cleveland accrued just 47.2 from its regular season starting pitchers. Cantillo was used exclusively in relief, Cecconi came on in lower leverage spots when the Guards were trailing against Tampa, and Tanner Bibee recorded a singular out. This is largely not a Stephen Vogt problem. It’s a sincere lack of quality depth for October. The lack of Cantillo boiled down to finding the right way to use him. Cantillo found success as a bulk arm later in September, finding his best outings in weeks after relieving the opener, but he never assumed the same role in the postseason, in large part to uncontainable command issues. Cecconi was moved to the bullpen after the Foster Griffin trade, and Tanner Bibee had the highest ERA of any qualified starter in baseball over the final two months of the season, including an ERA of 7.36 in September.
The simple answer is they need better arms. The more complex answer is they need better stuff. So, where can they find that this offseason? Foster Griffin is not realistic. Griffin’s camp was reportedly already seeking north of $100-million before the deadline,
— StL/MIL RHP Dustin May

Where to even begin here…Dustin May has been a name for a while now. From highly touted prospect to losing so much of his early seasons to injury to being the centerpiece of any and every mock trade for the Dodgers to a scary injury where he suffered a tear his esophagus after swallowing a piece of lettuce, May bounced back from all of that to set a career high in innings and strikeouts, and he’s now won three World Series in a row, with four overall.
May had a strong first half highlighted by a complete game, one-hit shutout as a member of the Cardinals. He was moved to Milwaukee at the deadline, and the underlying data seemed to catch up to him. May found more strikeouts with the Brewers, but whether in St. Louis or Milwaukee, May got hit hard, and the once great strength in preventing barrels and home runs turned into a weakness.
May found a cutter in Boston that he carried over into 2026, and much like Gavin Williams in 2025, it took his struggles to stay in the zone and muffled them a bit, giving him a glove side offering to hunt in the zone more. Combine that with a significant raise in arm angle from 21-degrees to 35-degrees, and May saw his 4-seam zone rate go from 47.9% up to 52.4%, and the stuff was significantly better.
May has simplified his arsenal too much in Milwaukee, and it’s been to the detriment of his sweeper. In 2-strike counts with St. Louis, May was going to his sweeper 42.3% of the time, inducing a 29.4% whiff rate and 17.7% put-away rate, above league average for sweepers. His sweeper usage in 2-strike counts dwindled to under 23% with Milwaukee, his put-away rate dropped to 10.9%, and his overall whiff rate in 2-strike counts among all pitches fell to 22.8% from 24.5%.
May fits well in Cleveland because of exactly that. Cleveland helped Gavin Williams both find and then rekindle his sweeper. Tanner Bibee developed a sweeper in this organization (that he should also throw more), Colin Holderman saw a career rejuvenation, largely because he found his sweeper again.
This is a top heavy pitching market, and Cleveland can’t wade in the pool with the bigger sharks. May could be the top end of what they’re hunting for.
Milwaukee declined May’s mutual option is $20-million, making him an outright free agent.
PastTheEyeTest Projected Dustin May contract: 2 years, $34 million — Possible Player Option
Realism Meter: 7/10
— CHC RHP Matthew Boyd

The first of a couple old friends that we’ll talk about here, Boyd has been a named possibly linked to the Guardians in the early stages of the offseason. Boyd flies in the face of the ‘improved stuff’ that we’re after, but his pedigree in recent years since returning from injury and the success he briefly had in Cleveland make this an easy fit. That being said, I’m skeptical. Boyd possesses a capable 4-seam/slider combo that handles lefties well, and then he flips it to 4-seam/changeup to right-handed batters, but the fastball got hit and hit hard, and he arguably should’ve been hit harder. Boyd surrendered a .455 SLG to the heater, but his .514 xSLG was among the worst marks from a starting pitcher in 2026. The rest of his arsenal combined yielded just a .349 xSLG.
If Boyd came back, I’d look for him to implement his sinker a lot more against lefties. He all but disowned the offering in Chicago, and it put a lot of pressure on his fastball to batters of either handedness. Boyd also threw a higher rate of same-handed changeups in his eight starts in Cleveland in ‘24. Sometimes you have to let a junkyard dog have fun with the junk. As Boyd ages, his ability to locate and tunnel from his lower slot and release point will only continue to amplify his success, and for a back end arm, he would be ideal and not terribly expensive.
PastTheEyeTest Projected Contract: 1 year, $12 million
Realism Meter: 7/10
— TOR RHP Shane Bieber

Now we’re cooking. Bieber has made just 20 starts over the last three regular seasons. The once the prince that was promised needs to come home and anchor the middle to back end of a rotation that badly needs his experience. For Guardians fans, if you want to see what Braylon Doughty can become, just watch here. Injuries have plagued Bieber from 2022 on, and in looking for a fresh reboot to the winding down of a career, Cleveland provides him with something nobody else in the league can: a familiar backdrop to the best years of his career.
Bieber’s fastball just hasn’t been the same in five years, but the velocity has returned to his post-2020 Cy Young season. The knuckle-curve and slider still carry a solid to strong contingent of secondaries, and the new changeup he began to use in 2024 before a torn UCL ended his season was excellent in 2026, running a .319 xwOBA and .135 average against. In terms of bang for your buck, anticipating Bieber bouncing back going into a season fully healthy for the first time in years is one of the stronger bets you can make this offseason. Should you expect him to lead a rotation anymore? No, that ship has long sailed, but SP4-5 stability in the form of this kind of pedigree and out-getting ability is hard to find for the price he’ll net.
PastTheEyeTest Projected Contract: 1 year, $8 million
Realism Meter: 10/10
Up next, we’ll get to a couple relievers. The Guardians’ bullpen had a similar problem the rotation had in 2026. Outside of the big time leverage arms, they struggled to get any consistency or outs from them, especially in the postseason. The emergence of Daniel Espino in October was huge, but consistency and lack of a repertoire still loom as major concerns. Matt Festa is a rubber arm, useful for getting length from the bullpen when arms are burned for a day or not needed, but he was counted on for a total 1.2 innings in the postseason. Franco Aleman is a wild card both on and off the field, Shawn Armstrong is a likely free agent, and Craig Yoho should never be asked for more than middle relief in a clean inning.
That leaves a substantial gap for innings and roles. As much as I’ve defended Festa, he’s in arbitration, is likely going to get $1.5-1.7 million, and for a reliever they don’t see fit for October, that baton of long relief role should be passed along. Justin Campbell, I’m looking at you. Beyond that, I’m eyeing one more right-handed reliever and one more left-handed reliever, likely on one-year deals, who can deepen a strong but thin ‘pen.
— RHP Jonathan Loáisiga

Loáisiga was a target acquisition of mine last offseason, and while that didn’t come to fruition, Colin Holderman did, Loáisiga returned to form in Arizona, and all was right in the world. Now, with a chance to acquire another hard-throwing low release reliever, the Guardians should jump all over it. What makes Loáisiga different than Holderman is that while he creates less swing and miss, his pure stuff and his ability to tunnel his changeup and sinker make him among the very hardest relievers in baseball to square up whereas Holderman’s repertoire is so distinctly split between his sinker and his sweeper/curveball, that it’s harder for him to sequence.
Loáisiga’s dominance saw him throwing his sinker less than almost ever before and throwing his four-seam and especially his changeup the most he has in his career. His changeup is uniquely disgusting, and its ability to work off the sinker makes it even more devastating. Its 32% whiff rate was the highest off all his pitches, generates a higher, near 1800 RPM spin rate (something Cleveland loves), and ran an 84.8 mph average exit velocity. It’s not every day you see a pitcher separate their changeup velocity and average exit velocity by over 6 mph, but Loáisiga’s power change does exactly that.
Loáisiga will also likely be on the cheaper side of things, despite his strong 2026. Injuries have ravaged his career, and extending a 2-year deal would benefit both sides.
PastTheEyeTest Projected Contract: 1 year, $7 million or 2 years, $10 million
Realism Meter: 8/10
— LHP JoJo Romero

Another name that the Guardians had been attached to in trade talks in the past, Romero serves to be almost a left-handed version of Holderman from a slightly lower slot, and in adding a lefty of this quality to the bullpen, Sabrowski gets to assume the true back end role he maintained throughout the postseason. Simply put, Romero should be a priority. Romero’s funky low release height creates unnatural eye lines for the hitter, and it leads to weak contact across the board against his sweeper and changeup.
Admittedly, I bounced around either Romero or Gregory Soto, and while I think Soto is better, I have a hard time believing the Guardians would ever spend over $10-million on a reliever. It firmly got a 0/10 in terms of realistic outcome where as Romero ranked much higher.
The Guardians need a third lefty in the bullpen. Tim Herrin really came into his own towards the back half of 2026, and alleviating pressure on Herrin while letting Sabrowski kick more towards the true high leverage spots he’s needed for provides almost unmatched depth around the league.
PastTheEyeTest Projected Contract: 1 year, $7 million or 2 years, $10 million
Realism Meter: 8/10
Again, a huge shoutout to PastTheEyeTest for the graphics and contract calculations. Don’t forget to follow them on Twitter @PastTheEyeTest! We will be back next week for the always fun, always successful Guardians free agent hitters breakdown.













