Category: Baseball

Today we look atthe Cubs’ veteran right-handed starter.

Jameson Lee Taillon was born in Lakeland, Florida, 34 years ago. He was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2010 June Amateur Draft, going to the Pittsburgh Pirates, where he toiled for four years, recorded 29 wins against 24 losses, and looked every bit of a decent young pitcher after getting to The Show.

He was traded to the Yankees, where he went 22-11, with a meh year and a really good year before he was signed by the Cubs. He’s now 82-60, 3.87 after three years on the North Side, where he’s been a serviceable rotation arm, possibly the most dependable on the squad. He’s been relatively good each year in Chicago, and there’s no reason why he shouldn’t have another year in his arm. He’s in the 1,000+ career strikeout club and can slot into any spot in the rotation.

His lifetime 15.4 bWAR (18.8 fWAR) in 11 years attests to his abilities. He’s also been to the postseason twice, with middling results.

He doesn’t walk very many batters. He also doesn’t strike out a lot of them. He doesn’t allow a lot of hits. He’s one of those guys that pitches to contact and lets the defense work. That plays in Chicago, where the defense never rests.

Projections have him generally around .500, 9-9 or so. 7K/9, 2.0+ BB/9, which isn’t bad. I suspect he’ll win a couple more games than that with relative health. Your guess is as good as anyone’s.

The Twins have acquired left-handed reliever Anthony Banda from the Dodgers in exchange for international bonus pool space. Banda was designated for assignment by the Dodgers earlier this week, essentially meaning the Twins gave the Dodgers a bit of cash to jump the waiver line. RHP Jackson Kowar, picked up off the waiver wire last week, was DFA’d to make room on the 40-man roster. The minor trade was reported by Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune.

Over the past two seasons in LA, Banda has a 3.14 ERA/4.52 FIP with 111 strikeouts in 114.2 innings. The FIP is quite a bit higher due to his walk rate, which was one of the worst in MLB among relievers last season. Like most lefties, he’s significantly better against left-handed batters and will likely be deployed as more of a true lefty-specialist. Fellow left-hander Kody Funderburk actually struggles more against lefties, making him and Banda a good pair in the middle innings for the Twins.

Banda will make a very modest $1.625M in 2026 and is controllable next season as well via arbitration. I would expect the Twins to still be pretty active on the waiver and trade market over the next two months as they look to beef up their bullpen. They have three solid left-handed options now with Banda, Funderburk, and Taylor Rogers, but could still use a more established right-handed reliever to go with Cole Sands and Justin Topa.

What are your thoughts on Banda? Can the Twins help get his walk rate under control and make him a more effective reliever?

Chase Lee is a 27-year-old, side-arm, right-handed reliever we picked up in trade from the Tigers in December. The Tigers needed a spot on the 40-man roster. And I had totally forgotten he was on the 40-man. I think this is the first one I totally forgot about. I’m not sure if this is true, but I’ve always felt that side-arm pitchers can continue to be effective into their late-30s.

The Jays sent Johan Simon to the Tigers, a 24-year-old left-handed pitcher who spent most of 2025 with Vancouver. He throws a 94 MPH fastball and gets a lot of ground balls. He had a 3.42 ERA across three levels last year. Not a big prospect but could make it as a lefty reliever.

Lee has two option years left, which gives him more value to the Jays. He pitched in 32 games as a reliever for the Tigers, with a 4.10 ERA, 9 walks, 36 strikeouts in 37.1 innings with 7 home runs against. Batters hit .239/.291/.478 against him. Statcast says he averaged 89.1 on his fastball.

He throws a sinker, sweeper, 4-seem and an occasion change up.

He also had 32 innings in Toledo with a 6.75 ERA in 32 innings, with 38 strikeouts, 10 walks and 4 home runs.

FanGraphs had Lee at #29 on their top 39 Tigers’ prospect list (39 seems a strange number). They said:

Lee, who came to Detroit from Texas in the Andrew Chafin deal, is a pretty standard sinker/slider sidearmer who has posted strikeout rates up around 30% his entire minor league career while maintaining a below-average walk rate. He doesn’t have precise fastball control — he lives in the zone, but not always on the edge of it — and that might be a problem against big leaguers when you’re only sitting 88. But both Lee’s sinker and slider live in the bottom of the zone consistently enough to consider him a high-probability up/down look reliever.

Bless You Boys had him #37 on their list:

Lee is a sidearm reliever who rarely tops 91 mph, but his mix of fastball types and sweeper-slider combination makes him a tricky at-bat, especially for right-handed hitters. The Rangers certainly thought so when they spent the second pick of the sixth round of the 2021 draft on the reliever out of Alabama. He racked up a ton of strikeouts in their farm system and limited home runs, but trouble with walks kept him from breaking through at the major league level.

Against right-handers, Lee will also use a heavy volume of sweepers. Against lefties he’ll mix his slider in almost as much as the sweeper. The sweeper is typically around 80-81 mph, with a lot of horizontal movement out of that low, side arm slot. Right-handers are consistently seeing the sweeper start in their hot zones, beginning their swing, and then flailing as the pitch bends all the way across the strike zone to be buried down and away. He’s racked up a solid but unspectacular whiff rate of 28.3 percent with it at the Triple-A level going back to the beginning of the 2024 season. The slider has more depth and is typically 84 mph. He uses it a little more when he needs to throw something that’s a change of pace for a strike.

As Lee is likely to be used as right-handed hitter specialist for the most part at the major league level, it’s the sinker-sweeper combination that you’re likely to see most from him. However, the slider and fourseamer give him extra weapons to work with against lefties, and he’s handled them pretty well too. He’s just more home run prone against southpaws and not the guy you want facing Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman in an outing, as an extreme example.

For the Jays, I think a lot of his value is the arm angle and the options. You can see the arm angle here:

Steamer thinks he’ll pitch 30 games, 30 innings, with a 3.92 ERA, 29 Ks, and 10 walks.

People who closely follow the Brewers have been wondering: when is William Contreras’ arbitration hearing? In January, the two sides were separated by $1.35 million and did not come to an agreement. We’ve been waiting for news since then, especially in the last two weeks, as the remaining arbitration cases have been heard.

Well, Contreras and the Brewers did not require a hearing, after all. They’ve agreed to a one-year deal with a club option for 2027. While terms haven’t yet been disclosed, that’s similar to the 1+1 deal he signed before the 2025 season. Contreras made $6.1 million in 2025, but the Brewers declined their 2026 club option (reportedly worth $12 million), instead preferring to negotiate his arbitration salary again. That move saved them a few million dollars, as Contreras filed at $9.9 million and the Brewers countered at $8.55 million.

We have signed catcher William Contreras to a 1-year contract with a club option for 2027, avoiding arbitration pic.twitter.com/ZLAioygzHf

— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) February 12, 2026

Whether the Brewers decline Contreras’ option after this season or choose to pick it up, they’ll still have his rights through the 2027 season.

We’ll update this article when we hear the terms of Contreras’s contract. His was the last outstanding case, and all Brewers currently on the team are now signed.

Update: Jon Heyman has the terms:

William Contreras and Brewers settled, avoiding a hearing. Here’s the deal:

$9,400,000 – 2026

Club option 2027 for $14,500,000

Awards Bonuses

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) February 12, 2026

So, depending if Contreras doesn’t reach any of those mysterious Awards Bonuses, the Brewers will have saved $2.6 million by declining the club option for 2026.

The Dodgers found a new home for Anthony Banda, trading the veteran left-handed reliever to the Minnesota Twins on Thursday for international bonus pool space, the teams announced.

The amount of bonus pool space traded is reportedly $500,000, per Francys Romero. By rule, teams can trade space in increments of $250,000 unless trading the entirety of its remaining bonus pool space.

Banda was designated for assignment on Friday when the Dodgers claimed catcher Ben Rortvedt off waivers, a product of a crowded bullpen depth chart that also includes fellow left-handers Alex Vesia, Tanner Scott, Jack Dreyer, and possibly Justin Wrobleski.

Acquired in a minor league trade from the Guardians in the 2024 season, Banda put up a 3.14 ERA and 3.46 xERA with 111 strikeouts and 40 unintentional walks in 114 2/3 innings. The southpaw held left-handed batters to hit just .182/.259/.261 with a 26.1-percent strikeout rate.

Banda was a reliable workhorse in his two years in the Dodgers bullpen. He didn’t join the team in 2024 until May 19, but from then through the end of 2025 Banda led the Dodgers by appearing in 119 games, four more than Alex Vesia and tied for 15th-most in baseball during that time. Banda also appeared in 17 of the Dodgers’ 33 postseason games over the last two years.

“The way I look at it is, whoever is in the bullpen, whoever’s name is called, they’re going to be ready to take on whatever they need to do. That’s kind of the environment they’ve created down there,” Banda said late in 2024. “I focus on feeling good every single day, being ready, and if my number is called, then just go out and do my job and be ready for the next day.”

Banda had the best two seasons of his career in Los Angeles. Now entering his 15th professional season, the 32-year-old is onto his 12th major league organization with the Twins.

With four years, 135 days of major league service time, Banda was eligible for salary arbitration for a second time this offseason. He avoided a hearing in January with a one-year deal worth $1.625 million.

All offseason, it’d been a fait accompli that Kiké Hernández would re-sign with the Dodgers.

On Thursday, it was Hernández himself who broke the news that the reunion was official.

In an Instagram post, Hernández announced he was re-signing with the club where he has spent most of his career and won three World Series titles, posting a picture of himself at last year’s Dodgers’ World Series parade with the caption: “What else did you expect?!!! 3 in a row has a nice ring to it! #WeBack.”

According to a source, the deal will be for one year and $4.5 million.

Hernández’s return to Los Angeles had been expected for most of this winter –– in which the 34-year-old entered free agency, and ultimately signed with the Dodgers, for a third-consecutive offseason.

A longtime fan favorite and standout postseason performer, the only reason Hernández wasn’t officially re-signed sooner was because of roster logistics.

The utilityman underwent elbow surgery this offseason that will likely sideline him for the first few months of the campaign. Because of that, the Dodgers seemingly waited to bring him back until spring training opened this week, when they could place him on the 60-day injured list and preserve a 40-man roster spot.

Hernández is coming off a down regular season in 2025, having hit just .203 (albeit with 10 home runs) in 92 games while dealing with his lingering elbow issue. 

In October, however, he once again played a crucial role, replacing Michael Conforto as the Dodgers’ primary left fielder and batting .250 with seven RBIs in 17 postseason games. 

From doing more with less to doing more with more.

Texas Longhorns head coach Jim Schlossnagle and Max Weiner are beginning to build the pitching staff on the Forty Acres in their desired image, buoyed by pitcher-heavy 2025 recruiting class that ranked No. 1 nationally by Baseball America and several important additions from the NCAA transfer portal.

“All of our freshmen are disgusting. They’re big, a lot of stuff behind them. We’ve got a lot of pitches to throw. I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of freshmen have important roles this year,” Texas sophomore left-hander Dylan Volantis said last month.

One of the biggest additions, literally and figuratively, is 6’5, 255-pound Brett Crossland out of Phoenix (Ariz.) Corona Del Sol. Because Crossland was ranked as a top-100 prospect by ESPN heading into the 2025 MLB Draft, it was a major coup to get the hard-throwing right-hander to the Forty Acres.

With a fastball that typically sits at 94 miles per hour but can reach 97, Crossland also features three secondary pitches with his curveball serving as his most valuable breaking ball. The key for Weiner is to ensure that Crossland that repeat his delivery consistent to avoid breakdowns in command.

“Stuff’s nasty, confident guy. Totally see him being in one of the biggest roles,” Volantis said of Crossland.

Schlossnagle also noted Crossland’s confidence, as well as his improvement under Weiner.

Crossland isn’t even the biggest pitcher signed by the Longhorns in the 2025 class — that’s North Carolina product Sam Cozart, a 6’6, 260-pounder whose full beard belies his youth. Cozart hails from a family of talented athletes, as his parents met at UCF where his father played baseball and his mother played volleyball, and both older brothers played college baseball with his older brother Jacob now in the Cleveland Guardians organization.

Ranked as the No. 47 player nationally by Perfect Game, Cozart was formerly committed to Mississippi State as well as to Schlossnagle when he was at Texas A&M. Considered an advanced strike thrower with a fastball up to 96 mph, Cozart has three other pitches he can throw strikes, including a cutter, changeup, and curveball.

Pitching for the Alumni team two weeks ago, Cozart threw four hitless innings, striking out five and allowing just three baserunners with his fastball typically sitting between 93 and 94 mph.

Here's every pitch from Sam Cozart in the alumni game pic.twitter.com/CcICm5I8qH

— Nash (@NashTalksTexas) February 2, 2026

“Sam Cozart is a strike thrower, super serious,” Schlossnagle said, noting Cozart’s fearlessness in another interview.

Put 6’5, 240-pound right-hander Michael Winter into the same category of power arms. A late-rising prospect out of Kansas who was committed to Dartmouth before seeing his stock explode during the spring, Winter ranked as the No. 274 player overall and the No. 77 right-handed pitcher by Perfect Game.

Winter features a fastball that reaches up to 95 miles per hour with arm-side run and has a natural ability to shape a four-pitch mix that includes the type of cutter that Weiner likes to teach his proteges. Winter uses a slider with a high spin rate to finish at bats with strikeouts.

‘25 Michael Winter (@SMEbaseball & Dartmouth Signee)

Another dominant start for the KS pitcher of the year front runner before reaching his pitch limit in game 2 of the regional.

6.2 inn 1R 0ER 5H 1BB 8K

FB: 90-93 T95 (2400) late and sharp arm side run
SL: 79-81 (2700) Go to… pic.twitter.com/dqHpT34D7M

— Prep Baseball Kansas (@PrepBaseballKS) May 23, 2025

Two other freshman pitchers have joined the three big right-handers in separating themselves from the rest of the class — right-hander Brody Walls and left-hander Jack McKernan, who combined with Crossland to pitch six innings of one-run baseball in the Alumni game.

Walls is smaller physically at 6’0, 200 pounds, but he’s on the Forty Acres because he gets plenty of juice out of that frame, working 90 to 96 mph with his fastball, which is complemented by a power slider with good spin metrics. In assessing the potential durability of Walls, it’s a positive that his delivery is not just repeatable, but also smooth and low-effort.

At 5’11, 205 pounds, McKernan has a similar build from the left side, and similar juice with a fastball from 92 to 94 mph with arm-side life. McKernan also features a sweeping slider and a changeup he can throw for strikes in any count.

Late in the preseason, right-hander Cooper Rummel came on strong before suffering a setback with a sprained ankle. The 6’2, 235-pounder from Dripping Springs is another elite prospect ranked No. 82 nationally by Perfect Game thanks to a heavy fastball with carry up to 96 mph, a sweeping slider, and a curveball with adequate depth.

Last month, right-hander Kaleb Rogers had a standout performance that drew praise from Schlossnagle. The 5’11, 200-pounder from San Antonio Reagan ranked No. 169 in the 2025 class by Perfect Game.

Through the transfer portal, Texas lost former Mississippi State left-hander Luke Dotson to the 2025 MLB Draft, but kept physical Western Kentucky transfer left-hander Cal Higgins, who profiles as a back-end bullpen piece.

In 2025, the Nebraska product was working his fastball up to 96 miles per hour, earning second-team All-Conference USA recognition for recording a 1.87 ERA with a 3-2 record and six saves. Opponents only hit .190 against Higgins as he struck out 52 batters in 43.1 innings. In addition to the power arm from the left side, Higgins dominated the zone in 2025, allowing only 11 walks and 28 hits for a WHIP of 0.90.

A trio of Ks for @calhiggins9!

We enter the stretch down 2-1. pic.twitter.com/WVrDafirGx

— WKU Baseball (@WKU_Baseball) March 24, 2024

The other portal piece for Weiner’s staff is Wake Forest transfer Haiden Leffew, another left-handed pitcher who made a team-leading 27 appearances for the Demon Deacons in 2025, posting 4-1 mark with a 4.46 ERA and four saves while totaling 18 walks and 59 strikeouts across 34.1 innings.

The 6’1, 235-pounder fits the mold of the additions to the staff because his fastball reached 97 miles per hour as a sophomore in Winston-Salem, though it more typically sat around 93 to 94 miles per hour, earning a ranking as the No. 14 player in the portal by 64 Analytics.

“At the end of the day, strength wins,” Schlossnagle said. “You can be tall or short, but you can’t be weak and short, especially on the mound. When I think of the University of Texas, they should have big, athletic, physical pitchers.”

Now they do.

One of Tennessee’s biggest pick-ups in the transfer portal over the offseason was Blaine Brown, a 6-5 lefty two-way player. Brown is coming off of a freshman All-American season at Rice — a season that opened the door for him to transfer to a school like Tennessee, but also a season that put him on the MLB’s radar.

Brown currently ranks as a top five overall prospect for the 2027 MLB Draft, according to Over-Slot Baseball. The 19-year-old hit .292 last season at Rice, hitting ten home runs and driving in 38 runs. Oh, and he can touch upper-90s on the mound on top of all that.

“He’s just such a dynamic talent,” Josh Elander said this week of Brown. “I mean, you could argue he had the best weekend swinging the bat. I mean, the guy hits the ball regularly over 110 miles per hour. And then, you know, one thing we talked to him about is — that was a big part of his recruitment process — what does the schedule look like? And how am I in a position to have success on both sides of the ball?”

I don't see a lot of people talking about Tennessee OF Blaine Brown as a potential top-of-draft name in 2027. I'm buying stock.

6-4, LHH, Hits the ball HARD.
Long stride, 55 runner, big arm strength in RF.

No. 3 college prospect on my board for 2027. pic.twitter.com/imEIv4F8vG

— Joe Doyle (@JoeDoyleMiLB) November 10, 2025

Brown’s bat figures to be an everyday presence in Tennessee’s 2026 lineup, but figuring out his plan on the mound is something Elander is going to have to work through, perhaps a bit on the fly.

“We spent a ton of time kind of outlining different options,” Elander said. “Because, again, do you start? Do you come out of the pen? Does he go from left field and then come in? So what we went with yesterday was a pretty good little trial, we went with the pitcher-DH. So he opened up the game and he was 93-95 (mph) with over seven foot of extension, really kind of cutting it loose.

“Then that gives him the freedom to then kind of just go to DH, so take focus, go get us some outs. So there’s some opener capabilities there. Full confidence in him being able to start. But then also, I like the idea of, hey, maybe he comes in out of left field at one point.”

Brown appeared in seven games for Rice last season, making four starts. Those outings didn’t go well though, with Brown giving up ten earned runs in just 4.1 innings pitched. He walked 12 batters in that span, highlighting some potential control issues. Scouts think his bat will eventually win out as he looks ahead to his professional career, but he will give Tennessee another option on the mound this spring.

“There’s a lot of options we can do there, but a lot of that with Blaine will just be communicating with him on how he’s feeling,” Elander said. “It’s just dynamic talent on both sides of the ball.”

Brown’s athletic pedigree is certainly there. His father, Chris Brown, was a third-round pick of the Tennessee Titans, where he went on to spend several seasons. Brown did get some action last year against the Volunteers, smacking a double in an early-season game in Houston.

He now joins a loaded Tennessee lineup ready to usher in a new era in Knoxville. Based on the early buzz Brown has generated so far? You’ll be hearing a lot more about him in the coming weeks.

The Guardians have brought back some familiar faces for 2026 – which brings the most joy to you as a fan to imagine seeing in a Guardians’ uniform this season?

Austin Hedges – the heart of the Guardians’ clubhouse and an elite defender (let’s not talk about his bat)?

Pedro Avila – the lovable Teddy Bear and ravenous innings eater?

Ben Lively – fierce mound competitor and innings-eating fifth starter?

Shawn Armstrong – former useful organization arm turned effective high leverage reliever in the meantime?

Still time to add Yandy Diaz to this list, Guards!

It’s time for the annual tradition of fan favorite and postseason stalwart Kiké Hernández returning to the Dodgers. The veteran utility player says he’s back in Los Angeles for a fifth time, posting on Instagram on Thursday that he’s returning to the Dodgers for 2026.

From Hernández on Instagram: “What else did you expect?!!! 3 in a row has a nice ring to it! #WeBack”

Hernández’s deal with the Dodgers is for $4.5 million, per Fabian Ardaya at The Athletic and Jack Harris of The California Post.

The Dodgers, who have a full 40-man roster, haven’t yet announced a new deal for Hernández. They can start using the 60-day injured list on the date pitchers and catchers officially report to camp to open up a roster spot. That’s no later than Friday, when the Dodgers will hold their first official workout at Camelback Ranch.

Hernández had an injury-plagued 2025 regular season, sidelined for seven weeks with left elbow inflammation in July and August. He hit .203/.255/.366 with 10 home run in 92 games, and per usual started at five different positions.

He got healthy by October and started all 17 postseason games, but even that period was affected by the injury. Through the first eight games of the postseason, Hernández was hitting .379/.455/.517 with four doubles. But after an ill-advised dive in left field in Game 3 of the NLCS, in which he landed on his left elbow, Hernández had just five hits in 35 at-bats (.143/.139/.229).

In November, Hernández had surgery on his left elbow that will prevent him from playing for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic in March, and could affect his readiness at the beginning of the regular season.

During Dodgers Fest on January 31 at Dodger Stadium, Miguel Rojas said he expected Hernández to return to Los Angeles.

“I’m in constant communication with Kiké. I feel like, all my mind, I have no doubt that he’s gonna be back,” Rojas said. “It has something to do with his injury and the stuff that he’s going through right now, he’s not going to be ready until maybe a couple of months into the season. I’m crossing my fingers and keeping the hope that we’re going to have Kiké, because we all know how important he is for the clubhouse, the organization, for the fans, for the city of LA. He deserves to be with us, too.”

During the World Series, Hernández broke Justin Turner’s record for most postseason games played in Dodgers history, now at 92 games for Hernández.

“This is not just any franchise, man. This is the LA Dodgers. They’ve been around for a long time, and they have a lot of history,” Hernández said in October. “And for a guy like me from Puerto Rico, kind of swam against the current my entire life, to be sitting in this position is pretty special.”

The Dodgers acquired Hernández from the Marlins at the 2014 winter meetings in the Dee Strange-Gordon trade, then acquired him from the Red Sox at the 2023 trade deadline. This is now the third straight offseason Hernández has returned to the Dodgers in free agency.

Including 2026, Hernández will have played for the Dodgers in 10 of his 13 major league seasons.

Spring training is the time to hear about who is in the best shape of their life, which teams might be cursed with injuries (not a great start for the Braves), and potential adjustments players make.

While the narrative is that the Phillies are “running it back” and that everything will remain static year to year, it is important to point out that players and teams make adjustments. In 2025, Trea Turner became a much better defensive shortstop, Brandon Marsh cut his strikeout rate by more than six percent, and Jesús Luzardo started throwing a sweeper.

Here is an attempt to predict what adjustments we see from Phillies players in 2026 and why they’re making them.

Bryce Harper’s First Pitch Swing% drops to 40%

Since his second MVP season in 2021, Bryce Harper has become more and more aggressive early in counts because of how pitchers were pitching him. Harper’s best chance at getting a fastball came early in counts and he was seeing less and less of them as time went on.

In 2021, Harper saw four-seam fastballs 36.2% of the time, that number dropped to 32.6 the following season as pitchers made adjustments.

So he made his counter adjustments by being more aggressive early in counts. After swinging at the first pitch 40.2% of the time in 2021, here are his first pitch swing rates the next four seasons:

2022: 50.4%

2023: 47.5%

2024: 47.4%

2025: 54.1%

This all led to more chase outside of the strike zone and fewer fastballs over time. Harper only saw four-seam fastballs 28.4% of the time in 2025, the lowest since Baseballsavant has tracked back in 2017. It was probably the first time in Harper’s professional career he saw four-seam fastballs less than 30% of the time.

The goal for 2026 is to get pitchers to throw more of them. Maybe moving Harper to the two-hole or Schwarber down to the cleanup position might help but if Harper is keeping a similar approach, it might not make much of a difference.

Instead, Harper will course-correct all the way back and become way more patient at the plate early in counts as pitchers have adjusted. With a first-pitch swing rate of roughly 40%, he will also have his lowest chase rate since 2021, and get into more favorable counts. Eventually, pitchers will have to come in the zone, throw him slightly more fastballs, and Bryce Harper will magically put him elite numbers again because there is nothing to show he’s physically declining as a player.

Brad Keller’s go-to secondary pitch will not be his slider

Since Brad Keller entered the majors in 2018, his primary non-fastball pitch was his hard-slider but that will change in 2026 under the Phillies major league pitching department. Keller has already talked about some of the new ideas the Phillies might be bringing to the table with his arsenal.

“He kinda brought up some ideas of things that we feel like would be fun things to try,” Keller said. “Like, throwing sweepers to lefties, changeups to righties, things like that that’s kind of a little unorthodox.

Keller’s 2025 changed the entire trajectory of his career. He went from a starter that sat roughly 93-95 and mostly three pitches to a hard throwing reliever with 4 or 5 pitches he can use to anyone.

I wrote about some of the tweaks the Phillies could make but there was nothing definitive about how he will attack hitters in 2026.

What I am predicting is that he will throw more sweepers to right handed hitters and more changeups to lefties and what pitch will he throw less of in 2026? His traditional slider.

For the first time in Brad Keller’s major league career, and probably his entire life, his go-to secondary pitch won’t be the hard-slider.

Adolis García’s opposite-field flyball rate will be at least 25%

The Phillies signed Adolis García and hope to get his swing to stay in the strike zone more consistently in 2026. He had a chase rate of 35.8% and 31.1% of the fastballs he saw were outside of the strike zone.

The best place to start with making slight approach changes is to stay back on fastballs and use the opposite field. With Garcia’s plus raw power, going the other way could help his overall numbers if he is making more contact.

Another reason he could be using the entire field is because of physical decline he is facing as an aging player. García turns 33 in March and has carried league average bat speed the past two seasons, a decline over what it was back in 2023. It could get even worse as he ages.

Part of using the entire field could be by design to stay within the strike zone slightly more often but also could be aging-related if he is not able to catch up to velocity and spin like he used to.

García is a strange bet for the Phillies to make in general. He’s 33, has shown some signs as an aging athlete already but could be inclined for bigger issues in 2026. He is considered a power hitter but has a sub .400 slugging over the past two seasons. He is a good defensive right fielder, a massive upgrade over Nick Castellanos, but his range could slip with natural physical decline.

After stepping aside on the first day of spring training so that teammate Framber Valdez could have the stage, it was Justin Verlander’s turn on Thursday. Scott Harris and Jeff Greenberg introduced him to the media on Thursday morning, and we go the first image in almost nine years of Verlander in the classic Detroit Tigers home white jersey. He then took questions from the press and there were some interesting notes, starting with the fact that the whole projected starting rotation came to the presser, as they did for Valdez on Wednesday. We love a show of rotational unity.

Verlander mentioned that as early as September of 2025, with the San Francisco Giants missing out on the postseason, his thoughts returned to Detroit. He reached out to the Tigers front office at the end of the season, but noted that he and Harris had some candid conversations where it didn’t really seem like a reunion was going to fit into the Tigers plans. The season ending injury to Reese Olson, and the fact that Verlander was still considering his options in early February, finally opened up a role and a need on the Tigers roster that their former ace could return to fill.

Nine full years since his last spring training camp in Lakeland, the facilities looked completely different as the numerous renovations and upgrades to the Tigers campus all took place after he was traded to Houston in August of 2017. Verlander noted Tarik Skubal showing him around and the oddity of finding picture of himself in his younger days around the facility and locker room. He described the last two days as “very surreal” at one point.

He talked about growing up in Detroit in front of this fanbase, and his reputation as a fairly solitary and self-obsessed player in those days, saying that he didn’t really have any regrets as he needed that intensity to become the pitcher he wanted to be and ultimately became. Verlander discussed actively working on his communication and becoming a more relaxed, open teammate available for questions and advice, saying it was something he had to work on as his career evolved. He also reminded reporters that he’d been saying he wanted to pitch until he’s 45 since he was 22 years old, and chuckled at how naive that sounds now, while discussing how he’s been able to keep it going and continue evolving.

The way he finished the 2025 season found him the healthiest he’s been in a few seasons, and sparked his continued conviction that he could still get it done. Adjustments he made during the 2025 season, and that he’d been working on since 2024, finally came together and he could feel it immediately in his stuff and in hitters reactions to certain pitches.

There was plenty more as reporters probed for his recollections of his younger eras in Detroit, and Verlander generally tried to keep the emphasis on the present and what he can do now to help the Tigers win. One question about whether his daughter is old enough to appreciate the return drew laughs when Verlander chuckled and emphasized that no, this means nothing at her age yet. He also emphasized that short of a major injury that requires surgery, he’s going to keep pitching for as long as he can, and he also recounted a point in which Brad Ausmus started teaching him to use data to improve his pitch selection and how that led him to using analytics much more in his preparation. A final note was that the famous or infamous Taco Bell superstition ended in 2017.

More than anything, just the visuals of Justin Verlander speaking to reporters while wearing the Olde English D really brought home how unexpected and yet totally familiar this all feels.

Joining our 2026 prospect rankings at #19 overall, Beilenson is our first of a few pure relief prospects we’ll see on the back half of our rankings this year. Something that’s been atypical in recent seasons, with the large exodus of prospect talent over the past year and change, some of these higher floor relief types are creeping their way into the top twenty due to a lack of impact towards the end of this system. They’re probably not going to be the sexiest names that most people know, but there’s value in predictability, and that’s precisely what these kinds of arms provide.

Sox win! Charlie Beilenson strikes out the last batter to earn his first professional save. pic.twitter.com/ZpQYe1Z6xX

— Everett AquaSox (@EverettAquaSox) April 5, 2025

Taken in the fifth round of the 2024 draft as a senior sign out of Duke, Beilenson was one of many college relievers the Mariners took in order to afford signing stud right-hander Ryan Sloan away from his college commitment in the second round. He was, however, arguably the top collegiate reliever that season and would have been a popular target for any team in a similar situation financially. Not a top prospect, but far from an afterthought.

On the bump, Beilenson features a legitimate three pitch mix that’s consistently performed well during his time in the Seattle organization. His fastball lives in the mid 90’s and is a capable offering, however he truly makes his money with a parachuting changeup and tight slider. None of his offerings are truly a “wipeout” offering per se, but the combination of the three allows him to get enough whiff to survive in the modern baseball climate. Plus, he’s got premium command of his entire arsenal, frequently working ahead in counts and rarely giving in if he falls behind. Perhaps not a dynamic strikeout artist, but a really solid arm to have in your system.

Charlie Beilenson had it all working tonight. pic.twitter.com/uFZ5tPL0Y2

— Mariners Minors (@MiLBMariners) May 3, 2025

Over the span of his 2025 season, Beilenson pitched in two disparate offensive environments for two halves of the season: Everett’s Funko Field and Arkansas’ DSP. Interestingly, those aforementioned homer problems crept up at a roughly equivalent rate regardless of level, perhaps indicating his homer luck was a bit wacky over the course of last season. The underlying stats would agree with that sentiment, as despite his 4.02 ERA, Beilenson had a 2.78 xFIP (FIP that has essentially been “homerun luck” adjusted) on the year, an excellent mark that paints a brighter picture of his true ability on the mound.

Beilenson is pushing to carve out a big league future by inducing a ton of ground balls (48.8 GB%) and commanding the zone. It’s probably a middle-innings type of ceiling that doesn’t have any true outlier trait, but the numbers are interesting enough to warrant his inclusion towards the end of our rankings. Having turned 26 a few months ago, Beilenson is old for a prospect yet to debut in AAA, but with little pressure to rush him to the majors, he’ll have plenty of time to acclimate to AAA and prove he can be a viable big league depth arm for the 2026 season.

The Rays starters had three pitchers throw 150 or more innings in 2025 (Pepiot at 167, Baz at 166, and Rasmussen just made it with 150), which should be viewed as an acoomplishment. The last time that happened was in 2016 when Chris Archer eclipsed 200, Jake Odorizzi threw 187, and Drew Smyly added 175.

The volume of innings and health of the rotation in 2025 was impressive, but their production was roughly average – even accounting for Steinbrenner Field being one of the more HR-friendly parks in the league. The Rays starters ranked 15th in ERA, 21st in FIP, and 13th in xFIP. The accomplished this average production by filling up the zone and being above average in managing quality of contact; ranking 3rd in zone rate and 6th in ground ball rate.

2025 in Review

When choosing which key performance indicators to analyze, I initially wanted to look at the inverse of what I have been doing for batters. However, there wasn’t much to decipher from zone minus out-of-zone swing rates and 90th percentile EVs for pitchers because those are more batter-centric data points. There isn’t much difference in those measurements for pitchers, and they all kind of cluster around league average.

The pitcher-centric metrics that provided the most useful insight were:

• strike rate to measure command (and somewhat by proxy, chases)
• zone rate to measure control
• contact rate to measure the ability to generate whiffs
• hardhit rate to measure EV suppression, and
• ground ball rate plus infield fly ball rate to measure quality of contact.

Here’s how the Rays starters with at least 10 IP last season performed in each key performance indicator (I know Seymour and Boyle had some relief appearances, but they were predominantly in bulk/starter roles):

Player	IP	Strike%	Zone%	Contact%	Hardhit%	GB+IFFB%
Ryan Pepiot	167.2	64.4%	53.7%	76.6%	42.5%	48.3%
Shane Baz	166.1	65.0%	54.0%	76.1%	39.4%	57.5%
Drew Rasmussen	150.0	65.5%	55.2%	80.5%	43.3%	57.2%
Zack Littell	133.1	67.7%	56.3%	82.3%	42.2%	50.6%
Taj Bradley	111.1	62.7%	52.2%	79.0%	37.8%	58.2%
Ian Seymour	57.0	65.2%	54.9%	75.6%	37.8%	41.3%
Adrian Houser	56.1	66.1%	52.9%	83.0%	50.3%	55.7%
Joe Boyle	52.0	61.0%	55.2%	74.4%	46.0%	49.1%
Total		65.1%	54.4%	78.7%	42.1%	53.6%
League Average 2025		64.1%	52.6%	77.7%	41.6%	51.1%

Right away we can see they were very much a league average rotation, and the key performance indicators mirror their middling production in ERA, FIP, and xFIP.

They were a typical Rays rotation in their above average strike and zone rates, and their contact management is evident in their elevated GB+IFFB% to hedge their slightly below average whiff generation and EV suppression.

Previewing the 2026 Group

Looking ahead to 2026, the rotation will be looking to replace over half of the innings they got from their starters last season with the departures of Baz, Littell, Bradley, and Houser. It will be tough to replace Baz’s combination of plus whiff generation and plus contact management with above average control and command. But the combination of Matz and Martinez gives the team a safe floor as these are two guys who have above average control and command while also featuring plus contact management skills.

I’ve got some conservative innings estimates for the current group of starters and bulk pitchers on the 40-man, and I’ll use their data from 2024-2025 in the key performance indicators mentioned above to see how this group could perform in the majors.

Note: I used McClanahan’s data from 2022-2023 because he hasn’t pitched since then, and Scholtens only had a handful of innings in the majors last year (he didn’t pitch in 2024) so I used his 2025 AAA data.

Not included: Griffin Jax, who is an interesting candidate to start, but it seems like he’ll be in the bullpen for now.

Player	IP	Strike%	Zone%	Contact%	Hardhit%	GB+IFFB%
Ryan Pepiot	175.0	64.2%	52.4%	75.1%	40.2%	49.5%
Drew Rasmussen	150.0	65.9%	55.0%	78.9%	42.2%	57.3%
Nick Martinez	125.0	66.0%	54.7%	80.4%	32.6%	49.1%
Steven Matz	125.0	66.8%	57.1%	83.5%	36.9%	58.0%
Shane McClanahan	75.0	66.9%	51.5%	68.8%	36.7%	55.1%
Joe Boyle	75.0	58.5%	51.7%	73.6%	43.3%	51.9%
Ian Seymour	75.0	65.2%	54.9%	75.6%	35.1%	41.3%
Yoendrys Gomez	50.0	62.9%	52.1%	77.0%	39.3%	43.7%
Jesse Scholtens	25.0	64.8%	47.0%	73.6%	34.1%	52.6%
Total	875.0	64.9%	53.8%	77.2%	38.3%	51.77%
Rays Rotation 2025		65.1%	54.4%	78.7%	42.1%	53.6%
League Average 2025		64.1%	52.6%	77.7%	41.6%	51.1%

The group should show nearly the same command and control as they did last year, and there’s a higher potential for more whiff generation.

One reason there should be more swing-and-miss is because pitches are sharper at the Trop thanks to the indoor environment. Tropicana Field consistently ranks as one of the best – if not the best – parks for strikeouts. Another reason the whiff generation should be better in 2026 is with guys like McClanahan, Boyle, and Seymour could contribute more innings.

McClanahan will be on a limit for sure, but I think something in the 75-100 IP range should be reasonable for him. The same could be said for Boyle and Seymour if they’re deemed ready to step into a larger role and there’s an opportunity to do so.

The guys who could be workhorses in the rotation in Pepiot, Martinez, and (to a lesser extent but still possible) Matz are all above average in their ability to suppress EVs and manage contact to some degree. These three help raise the floor of the unit while guys like Rasmussen and McClanahan can take over a game and flat-out dominate when they’re on and healthy. Gomez and Scholtens seem to be serviceable backend starter types, but I don’t anticipate big roles for either of them. They can both throw strikes and cover innings and that has value.

The biggest question mark here is that there isn’t a clear front-of-the-rotation guy who is capable of taking over a big game in October.

McClanahan can easily be that guy if he’s healthy, but the workload management he’ll face might limit his impact in the postseason. The only other guy on the current 40-man who can match his level of plus raw stuff across the board is Boyle. However, even with his improvements since joining the Rays, he needs his command to take at least another step or two forward before he could be considered for that kind of role.

I mean no disrespect to Rasmussen; he has above average command, control, and stuff, but he can’t match McClanahan or Boyle in their ability to flat out bully hitters with multiple pitches. Rasmussen is heavily fastball-focused which can be great for throwing strikes, but he’s more of a quality of contact connoisseur than whiff warrior. What makes McClanahan special is that he can be both. Boyle has really only been a whiff guy in the majors, but he has shown he can be both when his command is there.

Take-Aways

I expect this group to be better than last season with the blend of different skill sets and moving back to the pitcher-friendly Trop. This group does have fairly significant upside if at least one of Boyle or McClanahan could take a step forward in 2026, and they frankly need at least one of them to emerge as a viable postseason weapon. Nobody else in the rotation can match the raw stuff that those two feature. Boyle’s trends in both his command and control since joining the Rays have been exciting and better than expected, and McClanahan appears to be fully healthy for the first time in a while.

This was an interesting exercise to do for all of the position groups. It was definitely more challenging for the rotation because of the fluidity of roles for certain guys, so I won’t be doing this for the bullpen like I initially planned.

My very lazy analysis of the bullpen is that they will be good because they’re always pretty good. The were first in xFIP (to account for GMS) and 3rd in whiff rate last season while maintaining above average control and command data. The roles are very fluid, but I do think Baker and Bigge could see more higher leverage opportunities than one might expect. If the bullpen struggles, there are plenty of internal candidates (including some interesting NRIs) who can help. The front office also has plenty of resources to address any needs they might have there as the year goes on. Manuel Rodriguez should also provide some nice reinforcements later in the summer.

Max Muncy became the longest-tenured player on the Dodgers roster this winter, with his eight seasons surpassing all others in the wake of Clayton Kershaw’s retirement.

And on the eve of spring training Thursday, the veteran third baseman ensured his time in Los Angeles will continue to last for at least a couple more seasons, agreeing to a one-year, $10 million contract extension with the team that also includes a $10 million club option for 2028.

Muncy, 35, was previously set to become a free agent at the end of this upcoming season, after the Dodgers exercised the $10 million club option in his current deal back at the start of this offseason. But in recent years, the longtime slugger has repeatedly voiced his hopes of staying with the Dodgers through the end of his playing career.

This new deal –– which includes a $7 million salary in 2027, and a $3 million buyout on his 2028 option –– could potentially do just that, taking him through his age-37 season if his option is picked up.

Muncy, of course, was never expected to become a foundational member of the organization when he first arrived in 2017. Back then, the former fifth-round draft pick had been cut loose by the Athletics after a couple brief and unsuccessful stints in the majors. He signed on with the Dodgers on a minor-league contract. And he spent his first year with the club in triple-A, trying to reinvent his game at 26 years old.

But in 2018, he had a breakout campaign, hitting .263 with 35 home runs. In 2019, he became an All-Star with another 35-homer performance. In 2020, he helped the Dodgers end their World Series drought. And in 2021, he earned a top-10 finish in MVP, before missing the playoffs with a gruesome elbow injury suffered in the last game of the regular season. 

Ever since then, injuries have been a recurring problem for Muncy, who has particularly struggled with oblique issues over the last several seasons. 

However, the left-handed hitter has remained productive when he’s on the field, including a two-month stretch last season when he was among the hottest batters in the sport.

Entering 2026, Muncy is set to be the club’s everyday third baseman, and provide added pop in the bottom half of the lineup. 

And now, he knows his Dodgers future will continue beyond this season too, with Thursday’s extension ensuring that Muncy’s tenure with the team will last at least a decade, and possibly even longer.

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