
This past offseason, Pete Alonso signed the richest deal in Orioles history, trading Queens for Baltimore and a deal for $155M/five years. Through the 138 games of Alonso’s Orioles career, you could argue the Polar Bear has been underpaid.
Alonso has undoubtedly been the heartbeat of an Orioles team that, after last night’s win in Colorado, sits 0.5 GBof the final AL Wild Card spot. He currently leads the Orioles in hits, runs, doubles, home runs, RBIs and OPS. He has an outside chance to become the 10th Oriole with 40+ home runs in a season, will undoubtedly top 100 RBIs and should become the first Oriole since Jonathan Villar in 2019 to play all 162 games. If Alonso isn’t voted as the unanimous Most Valuable Oriole at the end of the season, it would be an injustice.
However, his performance during the second half of the season has put him in the conversation for bigger awards. Since July 1st, Alonso is slashing .305/.394/.558 with 13 homers and 32 RBIs in 51 games. After collecting 20 multi-hit games over the first 87 games of the season, Alonso has 17 in those last 51 contests—including his first four-hit game as an Oriole last week in St. Louis. During the last two months, Alonso ranks fifth in the AL in hits, second in home runs, sixth in RBIs and second in OPS.
For most of the season, Houston’s Yordan Alvarez has been the presumptive AL MVP winner. After all, the Astros’ DH is still on pace to complete the American League’s first Triple Crown season since Miguel Cabrera in 2012. However, Alvarez’s grasp on each of those Triple Crown categories has become more and more tenuous of late. Tampa Bay’s Chandler Simpson (.311) is only five points behind Alvarez (.316) for the AL batting title. After homering twice over the weekend, the Rays’ Junior Caminero tied him with 37 long balls. And after his recent tear, Alonso sits only three RBIs behind Alvarez for the AL RBI lead.
Outside of Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, the last AL MVP winner from a non-playoff team was Alex Rodriguez on the 2003 Texas Rangers—a fact which could play in Alonso’s favor. The Astros are one of many teams participating in the American League’s musical chair of mediocrity. Though currently leading the AL West, Houston only sits one game above .500 and two games above the second-place Rangers.
MVP awards can be largely narrative-driven. Could Alvarez’s MVP narrative survive both the loss of the Triple Crown and the Astros missing the playoffs? It’s possible, but if both of those came to pass, it’d certainly weaken his presumed stranglehold on this year’s MVP.
The Polar Bear could benefit from the reverse narrative. Should the Orioles complete their turnaround and secure a postseason spot, Alonso will undoubtedly get much of the credit for Baltimore’s unlikely comeback. After all, the Orioles traded away two of their best hitters at the deadline, leaving their prize free-agent acquisition as the only reliable force in their lineup. He’s responded by being a steadying force; one that’s given the other members of this lineup time to rise closer to his level.
Alonso winning the MVP is still probably as likely as when the Orioles had a 13.5% chance to make the playoffs. After all, FanDuel still lists Alvarez as a -20,000 favorite to take home the hardware come season’s end. But Alonso is sitting there with the third-best odds at +4500, just behind Caminero.
The Orioles’ 1B is also fighting against the positional value stigma that comes with playing first. Outside of José Abreu’s MVP from the shortened 2020 season, no 1B has won AL MVP since Justin Morneau twenty years ago. The position’s perceived lack of defensive importance means that 1B often get knocked down a peg in value statistics like WAR. Despite his excellent offensive numbers (and playing the best defense of his career), Alonso currently ranks 15th in bWAR.
In all likelihood, Alonso is on his way to the Orioles’ first top 3 MVP finish since Chris Davis in 2013. The Polar Bear is also likely to become the first 1B since Adrian Gonzalez to win Silver Slugger awards in both the National and American Leagues.
It has already been a debut season to remember for the Polar Bear in Baltimore, one that will hopefully end with an Orioles return to the postseason. And while Alvarez’s advantage in the MVP race is likely too great to overcome, Alonso’s season has been MVP-worthy.











