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Full Breakdown: Antonetti Speaks at Akron Banquet

As we know, Chris Antonetti is the master of non-answers and question dodging – but there was a surprising amount of information that he divulged to a crowd of primarily fans and Rubber Ducks’ employees on Friday, January 23rd. If you are more interested in a brief summary, I released a short overview of the event which you can read here. Lots to talk about so lets dive right in:

Travis Bazzana

Antonetti spoke a little bit about the former #1 overall draft pick — mostly regarding his 2025 season in the minor leagues. The Guardians POBO highlighted that Travis had a perfectly good first full season in the Minor Leagues (137 wRC+ between AA and AAA) but also acknowledged that it was perhaps not the season that Bazzana wanted for himself. The message was clear: the adversity Bazzana faced along the way has set a goal for what the second basemen needs to do in order to reach his lofty potential. Antonetti concluded by confirming that Bazzana will be starting 2026 in AAA, which was already expected.

Bullpen – Primary Area of Concern

As reflected in the Guardians offseason moves, Antonetti called bullpen depth the most crucial part of their offseason agenda. The Guardians so far in the offseason have acquired Pedro Avila (MiLB deal), Codi Heuer (MiLB deal), Shawn Armstrong (MLB Deal), Colin Holderman (MLB Deal), Peyton Pallete (Rule 5), and Connor Brogdon (MLB Deal).

As a general rule, I implicitly trust this team when it comes to bargain bin reliever signings. Shawn Armstrong was certainly not one of these signings coming off a season where he posted a 2.31 ERA in 71 games. The contract signed was for 5.5M with a mutual option for 2027.

The endeavor of acquiring bullpen pieces has seemingly been a success for the Guardians Front Office, though there is definitely questions about the left handed options out there. With only Sabrowski and Herrin on the MLB roster, and no lefty relievers currently slated to be in AAA, the lefty reliever market could definitely be an area that Guardians are still active.

The Hitting Group is Set

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: The Cleveland Guardians will not be bringing in any Major League bats for the upcoming season. The clear area of concern that we fans wanted the Guardians to address was a RHH option in the OF, and once again all signs point to another season with that as a weakness coming up.

Antonetti did not put any blame on payroll when asked about this topic, instead he attributed it to the lack of interest from free agents when it came to the playing time that they would be afforded here in Cleveland. Lane Thomas was brought up as someone that the team was interested in bringing back, but with DeLauter, Valera, and Kayfus all vying for outfield reps there was simply not an everyday role for Thomas. Lane Thomas opted to sign with the Royals for 5.25M.

Poor Eddie Rosario caught a stray from Antonetti as an example of why signing fringe free agents is not always in their best interest.

Austin Hays and Miguel Andujar still remain unsigned but Antonetti was about as definitive as you will see him, they will not be Guardians come Spring Training. There are a few players still out on the market that might make sense to join Stuart Fairchild as MiLB deals, but my hopes aren’t very high for them either.

Manzardo

Guardians young slugger Kyle Manzardo was a topic broached in the discussion. Antonetti shared that he has gained some muscle this offseason, claiming 13lbs of lean muscle added to his frame. That sounds a little generous… but sure we will take any good news we can take at this point.

ABS Challenge System

Chris Antonetti was seemingly very on board with the new ABS system being integrated to MLB games. He remarked that Guardians Pitchers will not be permitted to use those challenges claiming that Tanner Bibee would run out of challenges in the first inning. Having watched Tanner, you can see how his competitive edge might lend himself to hoping for a few too many calls. Another player mentioned in this discussion was Austin Hedges, who is going to be gaming the ABS system as much as he can behind the plate — as always Hedgey is our pitchers’ greatest ally.

Golden Batter Rule

Rob Manfred has recently started peddling a “Golden Batter” rule, which would allow a team to pick one spot per game where they can put their best hitter up at the plate. Chris Antonetti, who was part of the group that brought baseball the pitch clock and larger bases, is not enthused with that idea. I agree wholeheartedly, as most fans and people in the game do.

Cozart and Ingle – Catcher Defense

The Guardians two prevalent catching prospects were touched on briefly during the discussion. Jacob Cozart, who posted a 108 wRC+ between A+ and AA in 2025, had his defense lauded as near Austin Hedges levels. Fangraphs has Cozart rated as the Guardians #26 prospect — though Longehagen clearly doesn’t think as highly of his defense.

Cooper Ingle had the opposite said of him, the defense needs a lot of work. His bat was praised by Antonetti, coming off a 139 wRC+ season between AA and AAA, but there is certainly some doubt in the glove. This is a sentiment that has been shared by many in the Guardians organization for a little while now. With Ingle’s bat being as attractive as it is, I would not be surprised to see him start to get reps in other positions this upcoming season.

2025 Draft Comments

Antonetti was asked by a fellow attendee about last years draft, asking if first round pick Jace LaViolette was a sign of a new approach to hitting in the organization. Antonetti summarily shut this down by claiming that the organization did the same thing they always do: draft the best player available.

I call BS on this personally, LaViolette, Curley, and Schubart are not players I would have expected the team to draft when you take their draft history into account. Antonetti played it as he always does, with a non-answer keeping his cards close to his chest.

2016 Game 7

I’m not sure if this has ever been shared before and I missed it, but incase you needed another reason to dislike Rob Manfred Antonetti shared a story about that fateful game.

While the rain delay was happening Antonetti, Manfred, and Cubs GM Theo Epstein were gathered into a room where Manfred suggested postponing the game until the next day. I could not imagine how ridiculous of a decision that would be and despite how the game ended up, I am glad it was finished that night.

That’s the gist of what Guardians POBO Chris Antonetti shared at the Akron Rubber Ducks’ Hot Stove Banquet. As usual, he kept his cards close to his chest, but there was some substance to discuss and capture my attention during a dry spell of the offseason. Hopefully there was something interesting for you in this write-up!

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Crawford's trajectory suggests why he's MLB-ready, inside the numbers

Crawford's trajectory suggests why he's MLB-ready, inside the numbers originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

The commentary around the Phillies making marginal changes to their club this winter has created a cloud. One that blurs the prospective rookie season of Justin Crawford.

The 22-year-old is set to be the club’s everyday center fielder in 2026. The son of former big leaguer Carl Crawford — a four-time All-Star who compiled more than 1,900 hits and 480 stolen bases across a 15-year career — Justin is one of the more intriguing young players in the organization.

His tools alone should make Philadelphia eager to see him play on a daily basis. His advanced bat-to-ball skills and elite speed add an element to the Phillies’ outfield that has been largely absent since fellow left-handed hitter Ben Revere hit .303 and stole 95 bases from 2013–15.

All offseason, the organization has voiced its confidence in Crawford.

“From everybody I’ve talked to, the makeup is really good, the intangibles are really good,” manager Rob Thomson recently told reporters. “If [Crawford] makes the club, we’re going to let him go. We’re going to let him play. And hopefully he’ll have some success — and we think he will.”

That confidence stems from yet another dominant season at the plate for the Phillies’ 2022 first-round pick. In 2025, Crawford spent the entire year at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, where he slashed .334/.411/.452 (.863 OPS), collected 34 extra-base hits, and swiped 46 bases.

It marked his third consecutive full professional season with at least a .310 batting average, an .800 OPS, and 40 stolen bases.

On the surface, the numbers jump off the page. But Crawford’s underlying offensive profile helps explain why the Phillies believe his game will translate.

The best way to describe Crawford in the batter’s box is safely aggressive. According to Prospect Savant — which tracks advanced metrics at Single-A and Triple-A ballparks — Crawford posted a 50.5% swing rate in 2025, while carrying an 18% swing-and-miss rate.

Those numbers tell two stories. Crawford is aggressive — his chase rate sat at 33.6% — but he still makes contact with the vast majority of pitches he swings at. If you apply those thresholds to the Major League level, Crawford would have been the first left-handed hitter since 2023 to combine a swing rate of at least 50% with a swing-and-miss rate of 18% or lower.

Since the Statcast era began in 2015, only 11 single seasons by left-handed hitters have met that same criteria.

While Triple-A numbers don’t translate cleanly to the big leagues, Crawford’s batted-ball profile offers insight into the type of hitter he projects to be.

One of the most translatable aspects of his game is his ability to use the entire field. In 2025, Crawford pulled the ball just 31.7% of the time, went up the middle 25%, and hit it to the opposite way 43.3% of the time.

For Major League context, that would have been the highest opposite-field rate of any hitter since DJ LeMahieu’s batting champion 2020 season (43.4%), and the highest by a left-handed hitter since batted-ball tracking began in 2002.

Interestingly, that 43.3% mark represented a professional low for Crawford, further underscoring how consistently he’s used the opposite field throughout his career.

If you couldn’t already tell, Crawford is a pest in the batter’s box — regardless of the matchup. In left-on-left situations this past season, he slashed .376/.411/.518. That level of composure against same-handed pitching is rare for a lefty. Since 1974 in the Majors, only six left-handed hitters have produced a single season batting .375 or higher against lefties with at least 90 plate appearances.

When Crawford puts the ball in play, it tends to find grass at an extreme rate. His .407 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) placed him among rare company. Over the past 20 years, per FanGraphs, only two left-handed hitters at the Triple-A level have posted a BABIP of .400 or higher in a single season.

The last left-handed hitter to do so in the Major Leagues? Rod Carew in 1977 — one of his seven batting-title seasons.

There is, however, a trade-off. Crawford’s game is built heavily on ground-ball contact. Last season, he posted a 59.4% ground-ball rate — a career low, but still extremely high. That figure would have led all Major League hitters in each of the past two seasons and would have been the highest by a left-handed hitter since Raimel Tapia in 2021 (67.4%).

This has long been a known part of Crawford’s profile. His swing path has been a point of focus since he entered professional baseball, and adjustments late in 2025 hinted at growth.

Over his first 383 plate appearances last season, Crawford hit just three home runs. In August, that changed. He struck out more that month (21) than in any other, walked fewer times than any (8), but hit four home runs in 113 plate appearances while slugging .553.

Unfortunately, Crawford played just three games in September after colliding with teammate Otto Kemp. The Phillies ultimately shut him down.

Still, the takeaway from Crawford’s most notable offensive concern is clear: there is a concerted effort to lift the ball more. Given how frequently he puts the ball in play, even modest gains in launch angle could unlock gap-to-gap power and elevate his overall impact.

This offseason, those swing-path adjustments have continued. Crawford has appeared taller in his stance — something that surfaced on social media — as he continues refining his approach.

Defensively, the Phillies are banking on Crawford’s speed and instincts in center field. He has logged just under 2,200 professional innings at the position, and while Citizens Bank Park presents a unique challenge, Crawford did gain experience in left field last season. Brandon Marsh’s extensive center-field experience also provides an insurance policy.

So what should Phillies fans expect in 2026?

Despite being the youngest player on the projected roster — the only one born in 2004 — Crawford will break camp as one of the most polished pure hitters the organization has debuted in years.

He’s expected to slot toward the bottom of the lineup, offering stability against both left- and right-handed pitching. If he sticks in center field full-time, it opens additional flexibility — including the potential for a platoon in left field that maximizes Brandon Marsh and Otto Kemp.

Crawford’s contact rate — a professional-high 85.3% in 2025 — also addresses a recurring postseason issue for Philadelphia. Over the past three Octobers, the Phillies’ 7–9 hitters have combined for a .176/.241/.324 slash line (.565 OPS) with a 30.8% strikeout rate, the worst among teams with at least 100 plate appearances in those spots.

Crawford’s ability to pressure defenses with speed — a 75-grade tool out of 80 according to MLB Pipeline — and contact fills a void the club has otherwise relied on Trea Turner to address.

There are still questions about his discipline. For a contact-first hitter, Crawford does strike out at a relatively high rate. But his natural feel for the barrel and his ability to put the ball in play give him a strong foundation.

Crawford, currently ranked No. 53 on MLB.com’s 2026 preseason list, also carries the seventh-best odds to win National League Rookie of the Year.

A rookie line hovering around a .270–.285 average, 30–35 extra-base hits, an OPS near .730, and 25–30 stolen bases is well within reach — and would represent a strong return for the Phillies’ newest everyday outfielder.

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Mariners News: Carlos Correa, José Altuve, and Aaron Judge

Good morning friends! It’s Wednesday once more, and we’ve got some news and analysis to dig into.

In Mariners news…

Around the league…

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Colorado Rockies prospects: No. 22, Yujanyer Herrera

22. Yujanyer Herrera (115 points, 15 ballots)

Herrera turned 22 a few months ago, but he has been a professional for over six years, having been signed in August 2019 out of Venezuela by the Brewers for only a $10k bonus. Due to the pandemic, Herrera didn’t throw a pitch in affiliated ball until 2021 and he didn’t come stateside until the next year. Indeed, the 6’3” right-hander was Rule 5 eligible after the 2023 season but not selected. I don’t blame teams, as Herrera truly didn’t pop up on the prospect radar until 2024. He seemed like a strong candidate to be added to the Rockies’ 40-man roster after the 2024 season, but unfortunately he underwent Tommy John surgery in October 2024 and missed the 2025 season.

Mid-season 2025 Rank: NR

High Ballot: 12

Mode Ballot: 25, 26, 28

Future Value: 35+, starter depth

Contract Status: 2024 Trade, Milwaukee Brewers, Rule 5 Draft Eligible, three options remaining

MLB ETA: 2027

Herrera began his breakout 2024 back in Low-A Carolina for the third-straight year (though he was still 1.6 years younger than league average), where he quickly showed that he was ready for a new challenge with 17 innings of 2.12 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 14.3 K/9 rate ball over four games. A promotion to High-A Wisconsin followed, where he was 3.1 years younger than league average. In 12 games there, Herrera threw 51 innings with a 3.18 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 rate, and 3.0 BB/9 rate.

That was enough for the Rockies to acquire Herrera as part of the Nick Mears trade (along with Bradley Blalock) in July. After the trade, Herrera made six starts with Spokane, throwing 32 2⁄3 innings with a 3.31 ERA (3.41 xFIP), 1.13 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 rate, and 3.0 BB/9 rate. Those were strong results that pointed toward an upper minors placement before his arm injury scuttled those plans.

Here is Herrera being dominant in April 2024 in the Brewers system:

Herrera is currently 18th in the system as a 40 FV player according to MLB.com with a 55 grade on his slider:

The 6-foot-3 right-hander has three pitches in his arsenal that he was just starting to really learn how to use effectively when he went down. He typically throws his fastball in the 92-94 mph range and uses his hard above-average slider with bite as his go-to pitch. He misses plenty of bats with the pitch, showing the ability to backfoot lefties with it. He has a changeup, but it’s behind the other two offerings.

Because of that slider, Herrera’s strikeout rate took a nice step forward in 2024 and he uses the two-seam variation of his heater to get a lot of ground-ball outs. He threw a lot more strikes as well last year, but the Rockies will have to wait until 2026 to see if that sticks and if he can refine a third pitch so that he can stick in a rotation.

Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs was bullish on Herrera at the time of the Mears trade, ranking him as easily the best of the prospects Colorado received at the deadline (11th out of 92) as a 45 FV prospect despite not even ranking him in the Brewers system back in March. The injury caused him to back off that grade somewhat — he ranked Herrera 27th in the system as a 40 FV player last January with a 60 slider grade:

Herrera is listed at 175 pounds but is more like 250. He’s a below-average athlete who has struggled to throw strikes at various points during his career, and he still looks like he has below-average command despite his reasonable walk total from 2024. Herrera’s best pitch is his slider, a tight mid-80s hellraiser with late bite and good length for how hard it is. Still, too many of his sliders back up on him right now. He has a well-demarcated four-seam/two-seam fastball mix, but no cogent third pitch yet. Herrera’s velo keeled off at the very end of the year and he was put on the IL with elbow inflammation in September (he also had a hamstring issue last season); the Rockies left him off the 40-man roster. There’s a little too much development needed here to comfortably project Herrera as a starter, but he should be a fine sinker/slider middle reliever in time.

Herrera represents the kind of pitching prospect the system needs more of and I’m excited to see how he reacts to the challenge of Double-A once he is fully recovered from the Tommy John surgery — at least, that’s where I assume he will be. If his stuff is still there and he does well against upper minors batters, Herrera could be a rotation option for the Rockies soon and will be a no-brainer 40 man roster add this off-season. Due to the uncertainty, I couldn’t rank Herrera higher than a 35+ FV player, 25th on my list, though I love his potential to stick in the rotation and the quality of his slider.

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

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Yankees Birthday of the Day: Lyn Lary

If I were to name every championship team from Yankee history and ask you to name some players from that year, any fan worth their salt could probably get at least a couple. The lore of the likes of Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, and plenty others is large enough that their names echo through even to Yankees’ fans born decades after any of them played.

However, just a couple stars does not a team make. Every Yankee team, successful or no, had players whose names you might only know in passing. Lyn Lary might be one of those names, who was a very solid player who helped the Yankees to the 1932 World Series title.

Lynford Hobart “Lyn” Lary
Born: January 28, 1906 (Armona, CA)
Died: January 9, 1973 (Downey, CA)
Yankee Tenure: 1929-34

Over a century before a 6-foot-7 fella from Linden would first make his mark on the Fresno State baseball team, Lary was born and raised in the Fresno area of California. His family later settled in Long Beach, where he was a multi-sport athlete in high school and planned to attend the University of Southern California. However at the last second, he instead opted to sign with a local semi-pro baseball team.

In 1925, he began his career in organized baseball when he was picked up by the Oakland Oaks of the Pacific Coast League at just 19 years old. Lary had a breakout season two years later, playing shortstop and helping the Oaks win the PCL pennant, as he finished second in league MVP voting. He had caught the eyes of several major league teams, and the Yankees decided to pick up him, as well as middle infield partner Jimmie Reese.

Over in the majors, the Yankees were come off a historically good 1927 season, so they elected to let the pair play another year with the Oaks in 1928. After another good year in the PCL in 1928, the Yankees brought Lary over for 1929. He mostly spent his first MLB season playing second fiddle to future MLB manager Leo Durocher, but Lary showed his potential, with his season grading out at a 113 OPS+ and 2.2 rWAR in only 80 games.

That led to the Yankees trading Durocher to the Reds ahead of 1930 (aided by the Babe’s annoyance with “Leo the Lip”) and letting Lary take the full-time reins at shortstop. Lary’s early career at the position wasn’t the smoothest defensively, but he showed plenty of potential at the plate. That eventually shone through with a career best year in 1931.

Appearing in every game for the Yankees in 1931, Lary hit .280/.376/.416, with 10 home runs (the only season in his career where he cracked double figures) and 107 RBI. He put up 4.9 WAR according to Baseball Reference and 4.7 according to FanGraphs.

The one thing the Yankees hadn’t managed to do in Lary’s career to that point was win the World Series, but he would help them there the following year. The 1932 Yankees are arguably the most underrated team in franchise history, as they went 107-47 and then swept the Cubs in the World Series. Hampered a bit by injuries, Lary only appeared in 91 games and put up a 86 OPS+, although he did win a ring as a member of the team, seeing time at all four infield positions and left field as well.

However, 1932 also ended up being the beginning of the end of his Yankees’ career. Yes, injuries partially limited Lary to 91 games, but so did the emergence of another young shortstop from California. Frankie Crosetti joined the Yankees in 1932, and seized the most of his opportunity, taking the full-time shortstop job from Lary, who — while solid — had never quite lived up to the potential he had shown in his PCL days.

The Yankees held on to Lary in 1933, hoping he could return to 1931 form, but his hitting stats never quite got back. After appearing in just one game at the start of the 1934 season, the Yankees decided to deal Lary to the Red Sox.

Over the rest of his career, Lary played for a variety of team and had some ups, but also some downs. He played through 1940, and performed well enough to get MVP votes in two different seasons (pacing the AL in stolen bases in 1936 with 37 for the St. Louis Browns), but never ended up living up to his full potential. A large part of what doomed him was mental mistakes. As mentioned, his fielding could be a bit sloppy, but miscues didn’t stop there. In one 1931 game, he apparently ran into the dugout instead of touching home on a game-tying, ninth inning home run from Lou Gehrig, leading to Gehrig passing him on the basepaths and instead only being credited with a triple with Lary being ruled out. Neither run scored and the Yankees lost. Lary claimed that the ball had bounced back into play after going over the fence, and he believed the ball had been caught, but that’s still a bad mistake.

Lary was a bit of a character off the field too. Babe Ruth had given him the nickname “Broadway,” and he tried to act accordingly, dressing snappy and driving flashy cars. Amusingly, he married actress Mary Lawlor, who had been in the play “No No Nanette” of Babe Ruth trade and “Curse of the Bambino” fame.

After his playing career, Lary returned to his native California, and passed away from heart failure in 1973.

You might only know the name Lyn Lary from looking at old Yankees’ stats, but as usual, the story goes far deeper than that.

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

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Elephant Rumblings: Trade Deadline Set At August 3rd

Morning everyone, and hope you are all doing well. For those of you dealing with the snow, I recommend a trip to California right now, where it’s still cold but at least sunny.

We got word late yesterday afternoon that MLB had set the mid-season Trade Deadline later than usual this coming season, setting it for August 3rd at 3 P.M. Pacific Coast Time:

That’s a whole three days later that the usual deadline date of July 31st, giving teams a few extra games to make decisions on their roster. It’s going to be a little weird when that date rolls around and there are still a few days left for trading. A reason hasn’t been officially given as to why the extension so the best we can do it speculate right now.

Maybe some GM’s made it known that they’d like the weekend to finish up and business. July 31st this year is on a Friday and the 3rd on a Monday, and apparently MLB prefers deadline day on a weekday. For what it’s worth the A’s are one of the teams that has that Monday off so the front office will be able to wheel and deal without disrupting the team too much. Deadline day always used to be on July 31st but this will be the longest extension that the league has chosen. So when August rolls around and you still hear trade rumors don’t forget that it’s been moved this year!

There’s just 15 days left until pitchers and catchers report. We have a new CPL going up this morning so get ready to vote in the next round for the next prospect! Have a good day everyone.

A’s Coverage:

MLB News and Interest:

Best of X:

Maybe it was good the A’s didn’t win that lottery:

How many you guys thinking for Butler this year?

No love for Soderstrom:

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So actually, the Dodgers ARE paying an increasing share of their TV revenue

After I posted this article Tuesday citing a Joon Lee report on the Dodgers supposedly not paying their fair share of TV revenue sharing, my attention was called to this Los Angeles Times article by Bill Shaikin, in which Lee’s claims are, well, basically refuted:

It also revived a strange chapter in team history, with frenzied online commentary that the signing of Tucker was made possible in large part because Major League Baseball long ago rewarded the Dodgers’ owners with preferential financial treatment that continues to this day.

Is that true?

Yes and no.

This situation stems from the Dodgers’ bankruptcy under former owner Frank McCourt and the settlement and TV deal that followed:

In a settlement with McCourt — and to avoid the risk of the judge imposing a deal less favorable to the league — MLB agreed the fair-market value of a Dodgers TV deal would be based on the very Fox deal that Selig had rejected.

Why did that matter?

That value was $84 million for the first year and would increase thereafter, with the league taking its standard 34% cut and sharing that among all its teams.

But indeed, that value was not set at $84 million when all was said and done. Instead:

After negotiations, MLB and Guggenheim made a modest adjustment, setting the “fair-market value” of the Time Warner deal at about $130 million for the first year rather than $84 million. That figure is used to determine the league’s cut, which for all local TV deals has since increased from 34% to 48%.

Thus, what the Dodgers pay to MLB from this TV revenue is also increasing as the years go by, based on the increas in that “fair-market value” amount. The Dodgers’ very lucrative TV deal does go through 2039, and they are making a tremendous amount of money every year from it. That has more to do with the Dodgers’ negotiating skill and some luck, as L.A.‘s 25-year RSN deal was signed just before the RSN bubble started to burst. I’m sure you, the Cubs fan, are familiar with that because the Cubs created Marquee Sports Network just as the RSN bubble was bursting, and the Cubs aren’t getting the “wheelbarrows of cash” that President of Business Operations Crane Kenney promised. This isn’t Kenney’s fault; it’s just the way the TV marketplace has gone over the last several years.

It’s my understanding that the $130 million baseline number quoted above has increased by a small amount each year, and thus so has the revenue sharing amount the Dodgers have paid. It’s important to remember that revenue sharing of this type — from TV — is shared equally among all the MLB teams, so the Yankees (for example) get the same amount as (for example) the Brewers, unlike luxury tax payments, which are supposed to be used by lower-revenue teams for player payroll. The Dodgers paid $169 million into that pot for their 2025 payroll, which was more than the entire payrolls of 12 MLB teams for last year. Further, it doesn’t seem as if the teams receiving this money are using it for player payroll. That’s another issue entirely, one that hopefully will be dealt with in the next CBA.

There’s more on this situation in this Forbes article by Maury Brown:

MLB never gave the Dodgers a sweetheart deal. If Frank McCourt hadn’t driven the Dodgers into a court-controlled sale, this messy loophole that the Dodgers benefit from never happens. So, how much of the local media rights do the Dodgers ultimately shelter from revenue sharing over the life of the 25-year deal? It’s somewhere around $6 billion. That advantage is likely to stay with the Dodgers, even if somehow the owners were able to strongarm the players into a cap system when the latest labor deal expires on December 1st of this year.

Bottom line: It appears Joon Lee was incorrect in his report cited in Awful Announcing and that I wrote an entire article yesterday based on that. It’s not the first time I’ve been wrong and it likely won’t be the last. Hopefully, this article sets the record straight.

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Should the Royals trade a starting pitcher for prospects?

One of the major goals for the Kansas City Royals this offseason was to acquire an impact bat, particularly one that could play corner outfield. It seemed logical that the Royals should be able to sell from their starting pitching depth, and possibly tap into their minor league catching depth as well, to find a team that had excess outfielders but needed starting pitching.

The Boston Red Sox were an obvious fit, and there have been a lot of rumors surrounding the Red Sox and the Royals making a trade. Those rumors centered on the Royals acquiring outfielder Jarren Duran, but what the Royals would send back in return didn’t seem to align with what the Red Sox would want. Boston GM Craig Breslow was allegedly looking for Cole Ragans in return, while the Royals were offering Kris Bubic (presumably plus some minor leaguers). The rumors have been quiet for a while, and with the Red Sox’s recent signing of Ranger Suárez to a five-year, $130 million deal, it seems extremely unlikely that Boston will be looking for any more pitching. In fact, they are rumored to be interested in selling pitching themselves. Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic also reporte that the Royals no longer expect to add either Duran or Brendan Donovan.

The Royals haven’t been idle themselves, signing Lane Thomas and trading for Isaac Collins in an effort to improve their roster. While I wouldn’t describe either as an “impact bat,” they both should be floor-raisers and help improve the literally worst outfield in baseball next season. The Royals also did not need to trade from their starting pitching depth to acquire Thomas or Collins. Thomas signed as a free agent, and Collins was traded by the Milwaukee Brewers to the Royals for Angel Zerpa.

J.J. Piccolo is now in an interesting position with the roster. He’s improved the team from the outside without spending the “currency of baseball” that it was anticipated he would need to spend to improve the roster. Simply raising the floor on an outfield that was worth -1.1 fWAR should help the team dramatically. While we can’t predict the future, it’s reasonable to project that the Royals will be better in the outfield this year. It’s also reasonable to hope that one of Carter Jensen or Jac Caglianone steps up and becomes the impact bat the Royals were looking for this offseason, but have not acquired. The team still has a lot of eggs in the “young guys step up and succeed” basket, but that may be the best option if they can’t find a pitcher-for–major league outfielder trade that makes sense.

How the offseason has played out still leaves the Royals with enviable depth at starting pitching. There are still teams looking for starting pitching and presumably will be into spring training. Inevitably, some pitchers will get hurt during spring training or at the World Baseball Classic, which could make some teams even more desperate for pitching. While it doesn’t seem like there is a perfect pitcher-for–position player swap sitting out there, some team would presumably be willing to trade for a pitcher if the price is prospects, particularly prospects that aren’t expected to help the major league team. The Royals’ farm system, as noted by Matthew LaMar, is still lacking depth. That leads to the question: If you were in charge of the Royals, would you try shopping a pitcher for prospects?

Mackenzie Gore and Freddy Peralta both commanded strong prospect packages for the Washington Nationals and the Milwaukee Brewers, showing that high-quality starting pitching – albeit with multiple years of control – is still commanding a premium on the trade market. I don’t think the Royals would ever make him available like this, but even with his injury history, I assume Cole Ragans could fetch a similar prospect package, if not better. Kris Bubic, with his injury history and just one year of control left, wouldn’t do as well, but the prospect(s) you could theoretically acquire for him might be a better quality of player than what teams were offering. Maybe there is a team that covets the years of control attached to Noah Cameron or Ryan Bergert, allowing the Royals to acquire multiple players who could help down the road.

Making a trade like this would be a very Rays- or Brewers-like move. You would be moving something from the major league roster that you expect to help this year in order to feed the prospect promotion machine and help the organization in the future. You would have to be very confident that the rest of the major league roster could pick up the slack this season—or not be overly concerned with winning this specific year—while trying to raise the floor of the organization one small move at a time.

Right now, having a projected #5 starter in Noah Cameron, with both Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek not expected to make the Opening Day rotation, feels like an overabundance of quality starting pitching. The Royals’ farm system is improving slowly, but “slowly” is the key word. It makes some rational sense to take from an area where the depth might not help you much this year and turn that into players who could help in the future, either on the roster or in future trades. Of course, pitcher injuries are very real, and what feels like an overabundance of pitching right now could quickly feel like not enough if Royals starters start going down at the rate they did last year. It would be a risk—one that could hurt the 2026 Royals’ chances—but it’s also the kind of transactional move I’m fairly confident other GMs would make.

I think it’s fairly unlikely that the Royals would move one of their starters strictly for prospects. I don’t think they have had enough major league success to make a move that could backfire and hurt the team this year, even if we can envision a scenario where they trade a pitcher, add prospect help, and still make the playoffs. Unless a team overwhelmed me with prospects, I wouldn’t want to make a trade like this if I were Piccolo.

The fact that I’m fairly certain the Brewers would make a move like this, however, makes me want to at least consider the idea rather than dismiss it out of hand. They have remained successful at the major league level while reloading their farm system for future years, and I would like the Royals to reach that level at some point. What do you all think? Should the Royals carry their starting pitching depth into the season, or should they trade a starter for future help?

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Is Jarren Duran the best left fielder in baseball?

Good morning! MLB Network is conducting its annual exercise in ranking the best players at each position. Yesterday, they tackled left field, and the top of the list is quite interesting:

Yes, the man that many Red Sox fans have been shipping out the door in imaginary trade scenarios all offseason is, according to MLB Network, the best left fielder in the game. Of course, the reason why so many fans are keen to ship him out is because of the guy that MLB has at number two on the list — not to mention a couple other guys who will end up on the center and right field lists to be published in a few days.

Is Duran really that good and does it still make sense to move him if so?

Talk about what you want, keep imagining trades that aren’t happening, and be good to one another.

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Snake Bytes 1/28: The Business of Baseball Getting in the Way of the Game

Diamondbacks News

Nolan Arenado to Play for Puerto Rico in WBC
Somehow, I don’t think anyone will have an issue with this particular decision to play.

Examining the Potential Return of Gallen
What does it look like and what would it mean?

Marte, the Diamondbacks, and the Offseason
Has there been a bigger nothing-burger story propping up the offseason rumour mill?

Other MLB News

The Mets are Having a Swell Offseason
While there were a lot of eyebrows raised early in the winter, the Mets are shaping into a serious threat and are starting to resemble a big-money version of the Milwaukee Brewers.

2026 top MLB Prospect Rankings: Superlatives for 101-200
If even remotely accurate, this list does not bode well for the Diamondbacks, though Tommy Troy could change much of that, especially with a bit of help from Kohl Drake and Kayson Cunningham. It shouldn’t take long at all to see if pundits are sleeping on David Hagaman or have him pegged right.

Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa to Miss WBC Due to Insurance Issues
Houston’s Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa were expecting to represent Venezuela and Puerto Rico respectively in the WBC. Neither player was able to land insurance for their 2026 contracts though, so both are being prohibited from participating in the event. Stuff like this is what keeps the WBC from growing in stature faster. Hopefully, this won’t become a widespread problem for the rest of the stars.

Is MLB Parity Possible Without a Salary Cap?
Probably, though it seems highly unlikely as there would need to be too many things restructured. It is certainly the easiest and most straight-forward approach to finding parity of opportunity.

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Good Morning San Diego: Jake Cronenworth could be key to success for Padres; Yu Darvish is an outlier who fans should appreciate

Jake Cronenworth has been a mainstay in the San Diego Padres organization since 2020 when he came to San Diego in a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays. Cronenworth has proven himself to be a versatile defender who can play multiple positions at a high level. His offense has been an area of inconsistency during his time with the Padres and he has been unable to recreate the success he had at the plate in 2021. Thomas Conroy of Gaslamp Ball looks at the value Cronenworth brings to the major league roster and how he can be a key to the team’s success in 2026.

Padres News:

  • Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune wrote a story about Padres pitcher Yu Darvish walking away from baseball and his contract, but the report was deemed premature. Acee himself stated the wording used in the report could have been better. No matter when Darvish decides to call it a career, Cheri Bell of Gaslamp Ball says fans should appreciate Darvish for the player he has been with the Padres and the man he has shown himself to be.
  • The Padres announced their 2026 promotional schedule and some of the hottest items each year are the bobbleheads. There are nine bobblehead giveaways this year with six regular season ticket items and three theme game ticket items. Gaslamp Ball asked readers which bobblehead would get them to Petco Park.
  • Shaun O’Neill of Padres.com says that if Joe Musgrove can return to the pitcher he was from 2021 to 2024 following Tommy John surgery that kept him out all of 2025, he might be the most important player on the current Padres roster.
  • 2025 was a breakout year for reliever Adrian Morejon. He established himself not only as the top left-hander in the Padres’ bullpen, but he might well be the best left-handed reliever in MLB. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune looks at how Morejon can be more dominant in 2026 in his latest Padres roster review.

Baseball News:

  • New Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman Nolan Arenado waived his no-trade clause to be shipped from the St. Louis Cardinals to Arizona this offseason. He had the opportunity to change teams in 2024 with a trade to the Houston Astros but blocked the deal with his no-trade clause. Arenado sheds light on what went into his decision making then and now.
  • Aaron Judge will return to the cover of MLB The Show 26 after being the cover athlete in 2018. Judge is just the second player in the game’s history to make the cover more than once.
  • Willi Castro was announced as the latest player to be added to the Puerto Rico World Baseball Classic Team.
  • The trade deadline for the 2026 MLB season has been set for Aug. 3 according to MLB Trade Rumors.
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Evaluating the 2026 Red Sox starting pitching with projections

In the dead of winter, when I’m not refreshing MLB Trade Rumors or yelling at Siri to ask if my Jeff Passan Twitter alerts are broken, I like to look at player projections on Fangraphs. Despite the fact that they are a complete fantasy land, they provide a good baseline for our expectations for the upcoming season. Drawing from past performances of players, the various systems weigh more heavily towards the most recent seasons, while also using historical data of career trends of previous players with similar age, experience, and skill level.

Today, we’re kicking off a series that digs into 2026 projections by taking a look at what they say about the Red Sox starting staff. I looked at three systems:

  • Steamer: Created and maintained by Jared Cross, these are always the first projections released, usually not long after the World Series wraps up. They’ve been around for a long time and are widely considered to be among the best systems for projections. 
  • The BAT: Derek Carty’s projection system, which is very popular in fantasy baseball and DFS circles.
  • OOPSY: Created by Jordan Rosenblum over the last couple of years. While I cannot approve of the name of this system, Jordan and I wrote together at a fantasy baseball site called The Dynasty Guru for several years, and he was the first person to try to convince me to trust projection models, so I’m going to give him a pass on the name. 

This comes with the obvious caveat that it still feels likely that there is still a trade to come. Moreever, with so many starting candidates, it’s hard to predict innings totals, so looking at the rate stats is probably a more worthwhile task than playing time at this point. 

1. Garrett Crochet

These may not look like the dominant numbers that you’re expecting from Garrett Crochet in 2026, but it’s important to remember that projection systems rely on “regression,” and try to predict 50th percentile outcomes. If you sort any of these three projection models by ERA, the list goes: Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, Garrett Crochet, (big gap), everyone else. Skubal’s projection of 2.63 on OOPSY is the best on any list, even though it’s very likely that the eventual ERA league leader will beat that number. The only pitchers, including relievers, who best Crochet in K-BB% are Skubal, Mason Miller, and Edwin Diaz. Expectations are high and there’s no reason to think that Crochet can’t deliver again, if healthy. 

2. Ranger Suarez

The hope for Suarez is that he will keep his walk rate closer to the past two seasons (6.2%) than in his first six seasons (8.4%, which was still a solid number) as the projections split the difference on that walk percentage. OOPSY is most bearish on the Suarez projection, adding three more home runs allowed than the others. With a 3.38 career ERA, we would hope for an output close to that, but The BAT’s projection of 3.78 is actually 12th-best among AL starting pitchers, and Steamer’s projection of 3.73 is 16th in the AL. That would be the “number two starter” outcome that we were looking for. 

3. Sonny Gray

Slightly ahead of Suarez on Steamer’s list is Sonny Gray, whose 3.68 ERA projection would be 14th in the AL and would round out a strong top three in Boston’s rotation. Those top three pitchers can match up with any team in the American League in a short playoff series, although Seattle’s rotation one-through-five likely has an edge. Gray has a 1.20 WHIP over 13 career seasons, and much like Suarez, his walk rate over the past two seasons (5.4% combined) has been the best of his career.

4. Brayan Bello

Bello’s career K-BB rate of 11.5% is closer to Steamer and OOPSY, where The BAT seems to think that his paltry rate of 9.3% in 2025 is a sign of what’s to come. Bello has started 28+ games in all three of his full seasons in the big leagues, and there is something to be said for that. With a .234 batting average allowed, thanks to a .268 BABIP in 2025, Bello needs to have a strong infield defense behind him to repeat a 3.35 ERA output. Projections expect closer to a .260 BA allowed in 2026, which would bring his ERA back up into the mid-4’s, closer to his xFIP and xERA a year ago. 

The #5 (through #10) Candidates:

A little conditional formatting never hurt anybody. 

When Steamer was released back in November, one of the most eye-opening projections in all of baseball was Connelly Early’s. Perhaps it’s the five pitches that all had a 20% Whiff Rate or better in his four regular-season starts a year ago. There are very few rookies who pop in projections before they’ve had much of a chance to show it on the field. Moreover, The BAT is notoriously harsh on rookie projections, with the great Derek Carty needing to fight off the Twitter prospect trolls on a weekly basis. 

Early’s 16% K-BB, and near-3.50 ERA in both projections, is startling. Of course, thanks to the logjam of pitchers on this team, he’s projected for only 50-60 innings at the moment. That being said, there are only six starting pitchers on The BAT, and seven starting pitchers on Steamer who are projected to have a better ERA than Connelly Early in the American League. I don’t know what to make of this, but as Rick James once said, “Now, THAT is ABSURD.”

OOPSY is more partial to the other starting pitcher who made his debut in the final month of last season, Payton Tolle. Its projected 27.2 K% for Tolle is bested in the American League by only Skubal, Crochet, Cole Ragans, Trey Yesavage, Dylan Cease, and Joe Boyle (arguably a Quad-A guy) among starting pitchers. The BAT didn’t have time for Payton Tolle, apparently, nor Kutter Crawford. 

Johan Oviedo was enough of an attraction for Craig Breslow to move Jhostynxon Garcia, even though Oviedo has just two years of control left. For that reason, I wouldn’t be surprised if Oviedo made more starts for the Red Sox in 2026 than both Early and Tolle, and he does have a higher projected innings total than the rest of the bunch. However, the projections are fairly low on Oviedo, with the highest ERA and highest walk rate across all of the candidates. 

Both Kutter Crawford and Kyle Harrison have a decent output on Steamer. Crawford’s 17.6 K-BB% is very impressive, and not all that shocking for someone with a 16.6 career rate, which topped out at 18.8 in 2023. Harrison’s 3.91 ERA with a 16.6% K-BB projection would be more than serviceable. The other systems are not as kind to either of them. 

Lastly, there’s Patrick Sandoval. It should be mentioned daily that Sandoval was signed by the Red Sox to an $18.25 million contract over “two years”. You should mention it daily in your work meetings, if necessary, regardless of your line of work. Would the front office acknowledge that the team has nine better starting pitchers this season and take the L, selling Sandoval for half of his salary to help with payroll flexibility this year? Regardless, Sandoval has not pitched well since 2022 and hasn’t thrown a pitch in a game since early 2024, so it’s not surprising to see the projections be as low as they are on him, even though he is only 29 years old. The WHIP projections are ugly, but to be fair, OOPSY and Steamer both have Sandoval a shade under 4 in the ERA column. 

The last time that I did this exercise was heading into the 2024 season. After reviewing the hitters in Part One, my concluding sentence was, “Next week, we’ll take a look at the pitching projections and then all collectively vomit into a bucket.” Amazing what a difference two years makes. 

In Part Two we’ll examine the Red Sox lineup. And with the “ZIPS” projections coming out this week, there’s another robot we can be add to the mix!

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What’s Your Personal Truck Day?

The Phillies have announced Truck Day— and as sure as Punxsutawney Phil not seeing his shadow, that means spring is coming. For those who don’t know, Truck Day involves the Philadelphia Phaithful seeing off the equipment trucks, laden with bat, ball, and glove, as they begin their long, happy journey to Clearwater. There’s photo opportunities and the chance to chat with your fellow fans. This year, Truck Day is February 3rd.

Just as the Phillies mark the first portent of spring with Truck Day, each baseball fan marks their own path to warmer weather with a tradition. Perhaps it’s giving that favorite jersey a wash, or giving that favorite game a watch. Maybe it’s playing out a simulated season in a video game, or sending a few good natured jabs to that Braves fan in the family. Maybe your personal Truck Day is, well, going to Truck Day. It’s for the fans, after all.

Today’s question is: What’s your personal Truck Day?

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Do the Orioles need more help in the bullpen or the rotation?

With spring training only a few weeks away, it’s possible that the Orioles are done adding to the roster. Framber Valdez remains available, and the Birds could strike for a number of players at any point, but the team could also decide to stand pat.

The majority of free agents have already found new homes. The front office made significant additions by signing Pete Alonso, acquiring Shane Baz, inking Ryan Helsley, bringing back Zach Eflin, and trading for Taylor Ward.

On paper, this roster looks far more competitive than the team that finished at the bottom of the AL East in 2025. But the Orioles didn’t bring in a $155 million first baseman just to not finish last. This team wants a division crown and a real run at the World Series. Do they have the talent for that?

The lineup looks set aside from a potential hole in center field. On the other hand, you can never have enough pitching. Baz will immediately join Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish in the rotation. Eflin figures to join the bunch when healthy, and Dean Kremer remains a dependable—yet unspectacular—arm. Tyler Wells has the talent to make the rotation if healthy, while guys like Cade Povich and Brandon Young hope to receive another chance.

Helsley will anchor the bullpen with Félix Bautista set to miss at least the first half. The Birds brought back Andrew Kittredge, and Keegan Akin will return as a sold left-handed option. After that, the picture gets slightly less clear.

There’s room for improvement in both units, and the Orioles should leave no stone unturned when it comes to adding pitchers. With that being said, which group needs more help?

The case for the rotation

The Orioles went into the offseason with a clear need at the top of the rotation, and they have yet to address that need. The team views Baz as a player that could fill that role down the road, but nobody should expect the 26-year-old to pitch like an ace this season. Trevor Rogers looked like a Cy Young pitcher last year over 18 starts, but he missed out on the award because he only made 18 starts. Kyle Bradish finished fourth in Cy Young voting back in 2023, but he has only 14 starts over the least two seasons.

The Birds have a rotation that can get them to the playoffs, but can this staff help them advance? Baltimore watched Dylan Cease go off the board early, but a guy like Valdez can take the ball in Game 1. Zac Gallen isn’t a true ace, but his presence could prevent a guy like Kremer from starting the third or fourth game of a playoff series.

In the same vein, adding a top arm would allow a talented pitcher to fall to the bullpen. Wells would bring credibility to a bunch lacking in experience. Povich, Young, and Chayce McDermott all profile as guys that could thrive in shorter stints. If the Birds fail to add, they’ll only be a few injuries from depending on these guys every fifth day.

The case for the bullpen

The current rotation features a pretty clear pecking order. Bradish and Rogers stand a level above the rest. Eflin and Baz fit into the middle of the rotation with the potential to over perform. Kremer and Wells are known commodities, and the other guys have some potential.

The bullpen hierarchy is less clear. Helsley is the closer until Bautista comes back. Kittredge and Akin can be trusted in high-leverage situations. Then what?

Kade Strowd posted a 1.71 ERA over 25 games last season, but the 28-year-old still carries rookie status. Rico Garcia out performed his career 5.27 ERA last season, but the 32-year-old hardly qualifies as a sure thing. The same can be said for Colin Selby, Grant Wolfram, and Yaramil Hiraldo.

The Birds would love to see Yennier Cano get back on track after he posted a 5.12 ERA last season. Anthony Nunez will likely make his major league debut after arriving in the Cedric Mullins deal last July. Dietrich Enns and Albert Suárez are both talented swingmen that could turn into a pumpkin at any point.

The case against the rotation

The Orioles added two legitimate starters in Eflin and Baz. Eflin literally took the ball on Opening Day last season, and new skipper Craig Albernaz recently described Baz to the Baltimore Banner podcast as someone with “all the potential in the world to be an ace and to go out there and be in the conversation for a Cy Young” down the road.

While looking to the future, it’s crucial to think about the money an aging Valdez or Gallen would make in their mid 30s. Baltimore paid for the best years of Alonso while taking on some risk for the later years. Can they afford to do the same with a starting pitcher?

Veterans like Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer wouldn’t require multi-year deals, but it’s fair to wonder if they actually represent an improvement over the five guys in the rotation at this point in their career

The case against the bullpen

It’s not uncommon for competitive teams to piece together an unheralded bullpen. Relievers are volatile from year to year, and it’s never a guarantee that a free agent signing will meet expectations. Helsley, Kittredge and Akin should blend nicely with the raw talent from guys like Strowd and Nunez, and a bounceback from Cano is still in the cards.

While guys like Valdez and Gallen remain available, there are very few relievers still on the open market. A reunion with Danny Coulombe would play, and reclamation projects like Liam Hendriks are still a possibility.

Any significant addition would likely come via trade. Baltimore was linked to Jojo Romero last month, and the Rockies have multiple relievers that could be available for the right price. But if a trade is required, the Orioles might prefer to wait and see who is hot at the trade deadline.

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MLB News: Tarik Skubal, Jose Ramirez, Kevin McGonigle, Lucas Giolito, Carlos Correa, World Baseball Classic

Happy Wednesday, everyone! It’s a day that ends in Y, which means we’ve got some Tarik Skubal trade speculation to talk about, though all signs seem to point to Skubal sticking around through at least the start of the year, if not right up to his free agency. Still, we love an offseason rumor, so we’re sharing it with you.

We also take a look at some World Baseball Classic drama (Carlos Correa will miss it, Bo Bichette has backed out of Team Brazil), and Aaron Judge is a repeat cover star.

Let’s just get right into the highlights of the day.

Detroit Tigers News

Detroit would still like to sign him to a long-term contract but it’s difficult to see that happening with how far apart both sides are on a deal. The Tigers have listened to trade offers and at least talked about the “ballpark” parameters it would take to trade him. According to club sources, the asking price is so significant that it is unlikely a trade happens unless Detroit lowers its sights significantly.

So, where do the Tigers go from here? They could continue to try to extend him, keeping in mind what this year’s free-agent class has done to the market. If Kyle Tucker is worth $60 million per year, what would Skubal get on a comparable four-year deal? $70 million per year?

I’ve also been told by some rival executives that they think it makes more sense to wait until Skubal is a free agent rather than emptying their farm system for just one year of his services. At this point, Detroit could trade him now, or wait until the trade deadline when the return would be less, or do what the Angels did with Shohei Ohtani and wait until he leaves in free agency and get just draft pick compensation for him.

  • It’s rumor mill season!!

AL Central News

MLB News

  • Well this isn’t ideal…
  • Aaron Judge can add “repeat cover star” to his growing resume. Funny, though, because just one day before this, they announced there would be no cover star.
  • Nolan Arenado is officially on Team Puerto Rico.