Hannah Keyser writes that Junior Caminero would be a household name if he played for the Yankees. Instead, his Rays just sent the Yankees home. She profiles of Caminero here.
Jaiden Lo Re of the Delmarva Shorebirds hits the ball during a Minor League Baseball game at Arthur W. Perdue Stadium in Salisbury, United States, on August 2, 2026. (Photo by Dan Squicciarini/NurPhoto via Getty Images) | NurPhoto via Getty Images
The Orioles haven’t made a lot of noise outside the early rounds of the draft under Mike Elias. Of the Elias draftees currently on the 40-man roster, only Coby Mayo was drafted outside the top 100 picks of a draft (Mayo was pick 103 in the 4th round in 2020). However, with fast-rising prospects Jaiden Lo Re and DJ Layton, Elias may have found some mid-round picks that could turn into future major leaguers.
Lo Re was one of the true breakout players throughout the organization. The high school SS out of Scottsdale, AZ wasn’t one of MLB.com’s top 200 prospects for the 2025 draft, but caught the eye of Elias and his scouting department. Baltimore took the now 19-year-old with the 154th pick in the 2025 draft and signed him for an above-slot-value $562,500 to lure him away from a BYU commitment.
Despite being drafted in July of 2025, the 5’11”, switch-hitting infielder didn’t make his minor league debut until the start of the 2026 season. The Orioles chose to start him off in rookie ball, as he made his pro debut in early May. Lo Re only lasted 20 games in the Florida Complex League, however, thanks to his red-hot start to the year. In 65 ABs at rookie ball, Lo Re slashed .354/.421/.462 while walking 9 times against 6 Ks and adding 7 stolen bases.
That impressive showing earned Lo Re a step up to Low-A Delmarva at the beginning of June. In his first month with the Shorebirds, the infielder continued to be an on-base machine. In his first 20 games with Delmarva, Lo Re hit .333 with a .471 OBP, as he collected 23 hits and walked 18 times against just 8 strikeouts. July in Salisbury saw the 19-year-old cool off just a little, as he only slashed .299/.377/.433, but did start a 12-game hitting streak.
He started to show a little more pop in August, launching 6 doubles and a triple while hitting .343 and posting a .926 OPS. That final hot stretch for the Shorebirds earned Lo Re a late-season promotion to High-A Frederick. In his first seven games with the Keys, the teenager definitely showed signs of going through an adjustment. In his first 19 ABs for Frederick, Lo Re hit only .158 with a .638 OPS. However, he turned it around to end the year, slashing .387/.406/.484 across his last 7 games of the year to truly establish himself at High-A.
The former 5th-round pick also went from high school infielder to professional utility man in his first season as a professional. Split across the three levels he played at in 2026, Lo Re logged 100+ innings at 2B, SS, 3B and CF. One professional season in A-ball is far from enough to know if he’ll make it to Baltimore one day. But early returns on the Arizona native paint a picture of a Blaze Alexander-like player.
Charting a similar path in 2026 was fellow utility man DJ Layton. The 20-year-old came to the Orioles’ organization as a 6th-round pick (189th overall) in the 2024 draft. He was another high school SS whom the O’s paid over slot value for, giving out a $715,800 bonus to get Layton to forgo his Southern Miss commitment. The 2025 season saw little to write home about for Layton, who hit .183 with a .597 OPS in 40 games in rookie ball.
Despite that inauspicious start to his professional career, the Orioles promoted Layton to Delmarva to begin the 2026 season. Early on, that move paid off for Layton and the Shorebirds. Through his first 22 games with Delmarva, Layton hit .284 with a .896 OPS while walking 20 times and stealing 8 bags.
The 20-year-old’s performance dipped in May, with his average dropping to .250 and OPS dipping to .765. Those struggles continued into June, with his average dipping further down to .214, his power nearly non-existent with a .343 slugging percentage and a still declining OPS at .732.
Layton began to turn it around as the calendar turned to July, eventually earning a promotion to Frederick at the beginning of August. Over his last 30 games with the Shorebirds, his average ticked up to .242 while posting an elite .390 on-base percentage. When the switch-hitting utility man was promoted to Frederick on August 11th, he signed off on a Low-A career that saw him slash .247/.396/.389 with 73 walks and 32 stolen bases.
The North Carolina native opened up his High-A account with a 3-for-4 night that included his first Keys home run. He’d settle back to being much the same hitter he was at Low-A after that. Over 25 games with Frederick, Layton slashed .238/.390/.393 while walking 21 times and stealing 13 bases.
At this point, Layton is more projection than production. He’s a high-level athlete with 65-grade speed and a 60-grade arm. Eventually, that may turn into more over-the-fence production, but that’s yet to show up. In 117 games across the two levels of A-ball, he only hit 8 homers while collecting 25 doubles.
What he does extremely well already is get on base and create havoc on the base paths. He walked 92 times in 489 PAs, an 18.8% walk rate that would’ve led the majors by almost two whole percentage points. His 45 stolen bases were also one more than 80-grade speedster Enrique Bradfield Jr. His athleticism should also allow him to stick at a premium position long term, with Layton playing 500+ innings at SS in 2026 while also seeing significant time in CF and at 2B.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 16: Jake Bauers #9 of the Milwaukee Brewers is safe at home when catcher Ben Rortvedt #47 of the Los Angeles Dodgers can't make the tag in the seventh inning at Dodger Stadium on August 16, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images) | Getty Images
After taking down the San Diego Padres in four games in the NLDS, the Milwaukee Brewers are now set for a rematch with the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS, the second consecutive year and third time in nine years these teams will meet in the final step before the World Series.
The Brewers, who finished with an MLB-best 103-59 record, slightly outpaced the 100-win Dodgers, who finished with 100 wins for the sixth time in the last 10 seasons. Milwaukee was strong and balanced throughout the regular season, becoming the first 100-win team in MLB history to not have a win streak of six or more games. These two teams faced each other for a total of seven games in the regular season, with Milwaukee winning four of seven, including a 1-2 record at home in their May series and a 3-1 record in Los Angeles in their August series.
On the injury front, the Brewers are without a few pitchers, including Brandon Woodruff, who could potentially return for the World Series if his current throwing program progresses well. Brian Fitzpatrick, Quinn Priester, and Angel Zerpa all underwent season-ending surgeries this year and won’t be back until at least the start of 2027.
The veteran Dodgers have been dinged up throughout the season, and the latest injury is to utility man Miguel Rojas, who exited NLDS Game 3 early with lower back and hip pain. He remained on the roster for the remainder of the NLDS and is considered day-to-day, but it’s certainly possible he’s out for this series. Pitchers Brusdar Graterol, Eric Lauer, Ben Casparius, Jake Cousins, Gavin Stone, and Blake Treinen are all out for the year, while Will Klein, who has been out since the beginning of August, could be available as a depth arm if needed. It should also be noted that star Shohei Ohtani will not be pitching the rest of the year as he faced multiple setbacks in his return; he’s also a bit dinged up with lingering left knee inflammation and a right biceps injury, but it hasn’t kept him out of the lineup.
The Brewers have one of the most well-balanced offenses in baseball, and that’s a major reason they’re in the final four teams. Looking at NLDS performances, William Contreras led the squad with six hits, including a pair of homers, while Jackson Chourio drove in six with a homer and a pair of singles, coming up big in the clutch. Sal Frelick had two RBIs as part of a three-hit series, while Christian Yelich added five hits and an RBI. Cooper Pratt and Garrett Mitchell each had four hits, and Brice Turang and Jake Bauers seemed to hit a bit of a groove in the final game of the series after struggling for the first three games, a good sign for the coming NLCS. Joey Ortiz, David Hamilton, Andrew Vaughn, Gary Sánchez, and Luis Lara round things out. As a team, the Brewers hit .258/.341/.403 (.744 OPS ranks third) for the season, slugging 154 homers (tied for 28th), scoring 832 runs (second), and swiping 162 bags (fifth).
The Dodgers have a power-heavy team, as evidenced by their eight homers in the NLDS. Max Muncy led the way with three long balls, while Freddie Freeman added a pair. Enrique Hernández, Teoscar Hernández, and Kyle Tucker added one each, and Mookie Betts added three hits. Ohtani was fairly quiet in the series, slashing .154/.267/.154 with two singles, two walks, and a stolen base. Will Smith and Tommy Edman also struggled, combining to hit just 1-for-23 in the series. The NLDS roster also featured Josue De Paula, Hyeseong Kim, Andy Pages, and the aforementioned Miguel Rojas. As a team, the Dodgers hit .257/.338/.424 (.762 OPS ranks second) for the season, slugging 204 homers (tied for seventh), scoring 801 runs (fourth), and swiping 72 bags (28th).
On the mound, the Brewers used only six of their nine bullpen arms, meaning by the time the NLCS begins on Sunday, Shane Drohan, Kyle Harrison, and Chad Patrick will have gone two full weeks without pitching in a live game. Among the six bullpen arms who did pitch, though, they all did pretty well — across 19 bullpen innings, they allowed three runs, just one of which was earned (a homer allowed by JoJo Romero). Trevor Megill, DL Hall, and Aaron Ashby led that group, with Ashby going 5 2/3 scoreless frames over three appearances, striking out five. Megill added a pair of saves, and Abner Uribe pitched in all four games, allowing one unearned run over 3 2/3 innings.
In terms of starters, it seems obvious that Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson will each take the mound twice in a full seven-game series. The other three starters are up in the air — we’ll likely see Dustin May and Robert Gasser as we did in the NLDS, but the other game could very well be a bullpen day. As a staff, the Brewers had a 3.51 regular season ERA (second), including a 3.61 starter ERA (fifth) and a 3.40 bullpen ERA (third). They struck out 1,544 batters (second) over 1,446 2/3 innings.
The Dodgers have arguably the scariest pitching staff in baseball, at least on paper. For the bullpen, that includes multiple guys who could conceivably be considered closers, led by Edwin Díaz, who had a bit of an up-and-down year but looked solid in three outings against the Braves, tossing three scoreless innings with one hit allowed and three strikeouts en route to a pair of saves. Evan Phillips also picked up a save in the series, and Tanner Scott and Roki Sasaki are both closer-esque arms as well, though Scott struggled in the NLDS, allowing two runs over 2 2/3 innings. The bullpen also features another long-relief arm in Kris Bubic (who very well may start in this series) and true relievers in Edgardo Henriquez, Alex Vesia, and Brock Stewart.
They’ll be using Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tarik Skubal, Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow in starting roles, and you can bet that manager Dave Roberts will be looking for length out of each of them. They all pitched fairly well in the NLDS, allowing one run apiece, though with varying distance — Snell went just 3 2/3 innings, allowing five walks and three hits, whereas Yamamoto worked seven strong frames with 10 strikeouts and Skubal went six innings with seven strikeouts. Glasnow fell right in the middle, going 4 2/3 innings with five walks and a hit allowed while striking out five. As a staff, the Dodgers had a 3.55 regular season ERA (fourth), including a 3.43 starter ERA (second) and a 3.74 bullpen ERA (ninth). They struck out 1,521 batters (fourth) over 1,435 2/3 innings.
Probable Pitchers
Note: Pitching matchups will be filled in as they’re announced
Game 1: Sunday, October 11 @ 7:00 p.m.: TBD vs. TBD
Game 2: Monday, October 12 @ 4:00 p.m.: TBD vs. TBD
Game 3: Wednesday, October 14 @ 7:00 p.m.: TBD vs. TBD
Game 4: Thursday, October 15 @ 8:00 p.m.: TBD vs. TBD
Game 5 (if necessary): Friday, October 16 @ 8:00 p.m.: TBD vs. TBD
Game 6 (if necessary): Sunday, October 18 @ 7:00 p.m.: TBD vs. TBD
Game 7 (if necessary): Monday, October 19 @ 7:00 p.m.: TBD vs. TBD
How to watch and listen
Sunday, October 11: Nationally televised on FOX & FOX One; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)
Monday, October 12: Nationally televised on FOX/FS1 & FOX One; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)
Wednesday, October 14: Nationally televised on FS1 & FOX One; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)
Thursday, October 15: Nationally televised on FS1 & FOX One; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)
Friday, October 16: Nationally televised on FS1 & FOX One; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)
Sunday, October 18: Nationally televised on FS1 & FOX One; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)
Monday, October 19: Nationally televised on FOX/FS1 & FOX One; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network (620 WTMJ in Milwaukee)
Prediction
This will be another fun battle with the two-time reigning champion Dodgers. You can be sure the Brewers aren’t overlooking them, but do they have what it takes to take down a team filled with high-paid veterans? I say yes. Milwaukee has plenty of young’uns, and the scrappy, fundamental baseball they play seems like a good counter to the Dodgers. As closely fought as the NLDS against the Padres was, I think we’ll see more of the same here — plenty of low-scoring games that come down to the bullpens. Give me the Brewers in six.
MILWAUKEE, WI - OCTOBER 04: A sponsorship view of Booking.com signage prior to Game Two of the National League Division Series presented by Booking.com between the San Diego Padres and the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on Sunday, October 4, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Good morning, baseball fans!
Unfortunately, we have reached a day without baseball. The ALDS continues tomorrow, ostensibly, if it didn’t end last night. (Again, I write these in the past, so you have more information at the moment than I do.) And the NLCS doesn’t start until Sunday, with the ALCS starting on Monday.
So it’s as good a time as any to discuss how we’re feeling about the playoffs so far. Personally, there is not enough chaos. I want full series, dang it. And so far we’ve had four sweeps and two 3-1 series wins. That’s boring (I say, as a fan of a team who is not in the playoffs at all and who therefore doesn’t have to bear the stress personally).
Where’s the drama? Where’s the chaos and horrible stomachache of a double elimination game?
Hopefully those things are coming in the division championship series. And hopefully the Milwaukee Brewers are able to take out the Los Angeles Dodgers. I mean, realistically, if I can just get the latter, I will forgive the former.
Ronald Acuña Jr. heard boos during the Braves’ loss in the National League Division Series, and he’s facing some big questions heading into next season.
Marlins center fielder Jakob Marsee will undergo elbow surgery and expects to return to the field in six months.
Around Major League Baseball
The Guardians put together a six-run sixth inning and used three starting pitchers to defeat the White Sox, forcing Game 5 tomorrow night in Chicago after falling behind two-game-to-none to begin the series.
Following the Yankees’ elimination, Aaron Judge said that he wants the front office to go all in and expressed confidence in manager Aaron Boone.
Ian O’Connor writes that the Yankees should move on from Boone, but he says that you shouldn’t expect them to actually do it.
Deesha Thosar writes that the end of this season felt all too familiar for the Yankees.
Major League Baseball proposed a 154-game schedule for the regular season, lengthening the Division Series to a best-of-seven, and a system that would have the higher-seeded teams in the Wild Card and Division series rounds of the playoffs choose their opponents. And the league says all of those things are contingent upon the union agreeing to a salary cap.
DENVER, CO - AUGUST 26: Carlos Gonzalez #5 of the Colorado Rockies follows the flight of an eighth inning double against the St. Louis Cardinals at Coors Field on August 26, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. Players are wearing special jerseys with their nicknames on them during Players' Weekend. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Good morning, Purple Row!
We moved another step closer to the beginning of the League Championship Series as the schedule was announced on Thursday. The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday, Oct. 11 at 6 p.m. MDT in the NLCS.
Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians have charged back and tied up their series with the Chicago White Sox to force a Game 5 on Saturday night. The Tampa Bay Rays, meanwhile, are patiently waiting after sweeping the Yankees. They wait Saturday’s winner and the ALCS will begin Oct. 12 in Tampa Bay at 6 p.m. MDT.
On the local front, with football season in full swing in Denver and the Broncos grabbing most of the headlines (positive and negative), Empower Field at Mile High is completely centered on orange and blue right now. However, a Rockie will be adding a splash of purple to the stadium as Carlos González has just been inducted into the Colorado Sports Hall of Fame, which is nestled inside Mile High.
In 10 years with the Rockies, CarGo posted a 24 rWAR, connected for 227 homers and 277 doubles, while hitting .290/.349/.516 with an .865 OPS. The outfielder was named to three National League All-Star rosters, earned three Gold Gloves and two Silver Sluggers and won the NL batting title in 2010 when he hit .336.
Read about his selection and more news from around MLB below.
CarGo, a fan favorite known as the Rockie with the sweetest swing, is one of six athletes to join the elite group, which will be inducted officially on April 15, 2027, at a banquet at the Hilton Denver City Center.
Other Rockies in the Colorado Sports Hall of Fame include Dante Bichette, Vinny Castilla, Andrés Galaraga, Todd Helton, and Larry Walker, along with Colorado’s first manager Don Baylor, first general manager Bob Gebhard, and former team president Keli McGregor.
Not breaking news, as this was covered in the Rockies press conference from Tuesday, but the Kris Bryant situation is always worth remembering. At least Colorado president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta talked about it, which seemed vital after Bryant didn’t play and was never around in 2026.
You have to narrow it to the years the Rockies went to the playoffs: 1995, 2005, 2007, 2017, and 2018. So it has to be either from the Rocktober era or lone back-to-back postseason berths era.
It turns out it’s the first option: it’s Matt Holliday with five playoff bombs. What’s even more wild is that Holliday only had one season — 2007 — with the Rockies in the postseason.
Joel Reuter picked Rockies veteran pitcher Kyle Freeland. Freeland, 33, just pitched his 10 season in Colorado. With his contract ended, Reuter predicts that the Rockies bring him back and hope that he can have a bounce-back season.
On Thursday, the latest proposal from MLB went to the MLB Players Association and included some changes that would begin in 2029. One is a season with eight fewer games and a weekly off-day for each team. Another is a change to the postseason for the Division Series that would increase each league’s contests from five-game series to seven games. In addition, the top seeds from the Wild Card round and Division Series round would get to pick their opponents, allowing for the bracket to be altered each round.
Outside of the White Sox, the Rockies can also always look to the Tampa Bay Rays for a model of how to scout, draft, develop and build a low-cost roster in a small market. The Rays do it year in and year out, but no other team seems able to replicate their success. This article look at five players that were castoffs from other teams before finding their way in Tampa Bay.
There are many reasons the Rays are good. Bryan Baker, the 31-year-old All-Star closer is a big one. He recorded saves in all three games against the Yankees. He joined elite company in that feat, joining former Rockies closer Manny Corpas (2007), as well as Mark Wohlers (1996) and Dennis Eckersley (1988 and ‘96), as the only pitcher to get three saves in his team’s first three postseason games. Baker is the only one to do it without giving up a hit.
New York Yankees manager Aaron Boone is on the hot seat. Maybe.
After another early exit from the postseason, the second in a row in the ALDS, New York has to be reassessing its personnel. The Yankees haven’t won a World Series since 2009.
DETROIT, MICHIGAN - SEPTEMBER 27, 2026: Kevin McGonigle #7 of the Detroit Tigers celebrates with teammates as he exits the game during the eighth inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Comerica Park on September 27, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by George Kubas/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
The preparation continues for this impending misery of an offseason. MLB and the players union have already been lobbing proposals at each other for months, and this will no doubt continue as either side tries to position itself and lobby the fanbase in advance of the next collective bargaining agreement negotiations this winter. MLB came back with a new round of ideas on Thursday, and the reception was tepid.
Kevin McGonigle’s march to the AL Rookie of the Year award continued as Baseball America named the Tigers’ infielder their 2026 Rookie of the Year. Their prospect tools review of the 2026 draft also had some Tigers mentioned.
Both league championship series are taking shape, and so we’ll also link you to some playoff previews as the Dodgers and Brewers prepare for an epic showdown, while the Rays await the winner of the White Sox-Guardians series. The Guardians looked cooked early in Game 4 until Jose Ramirez finally provided some of his old spark, and his teammates took it to the White Sox’s bullpen to force a decisive Game 5.
Let’s get into it.
Detroit Tigers News
Kevin McGonigle is Baseball America’s overall Rookie of the Year for 2026. The article points to the fact that McGonigle is so good at everything, rather than having one obvious strength, as the reason he’s already thriving at the major league level.
They also link of list of players 21 and under this season who accumulated at least 1 WAR per Baseball Reference. That is a record number of players that age putting up that kind of value.
7.1: Kevin McGonigle, SS, Tigers
3.1: AJ Ewing, CF, Mets
2.1: Bryce Eldridge, 1B, Giants
2.1: Konnor Griffin, SS, Pirates
1.7: Cooper Pratt, SS, Brewers
1.6: Samuel Basallo, C, Orioles
1.2:Max Clark, CF, Tigers
1.2: Luis Lara, CF, Brewers
1.1: George Lombard Jr., SS, Yankees
Cody Stavenhagen of the Athletic reports that the Tigers have fired Head Athletic Trainer Ryan Eubanks, as well as Assistant Athletic Trainer Chris MacDonald. The incredible number of soft tissue, non-contact injuries suffered by the Tigers this season no doubt played a role. The Tigers have already parted ways with long-time assistant pitching coach Juan Nieves, as well as first base coach Anthony Sanders. After the way this season went there are probably more changes coming. I’ll not again that the Tigers still don’t have a director of pitching in the minor leagues almost a year after Gabe Ribas left to join the Colorado Rockies coaching staff.
Rogelio Castillo, writing for Tigers Roundtable, considers the case of Colt Keith, who continues to be a modestly above average run producer, but still doesn’t have a defensive home.
Baseball America did its annual look at best tools from each team’s new draft class. As you’d expect, first rounder Cameron Flukey gets the highest marks for his fastball, which is among the best in the whole draft class, as well as his pair of breaking balls. They also mention second rounder Tyson LeBlanc’s breakout with the bat this season, calling his the best hit tool in the Tigers’ draft class, while fourth rounder Dominic Pellegrin gets high marks for his speed and defensive ability. In terms of secondary pitches, Flukey’s breaking stuff draws high marks, but Florida Gulf Coast RHP Evan Dempsey (2s) also has multiple high-quality breaking balls and advanced spin capacity overall. Another option here is the screwball-like changeup that Louisiana Tech RHP Declan Dahl (5) parachutes over the plate.
Jason Beck for MLB.com wrote about Framber Valdez’s first season as a Tiger, pointing to comments from AJ Hinch as to how the Tigers are trying to help him avoid the early game ambushes that marred numerous starts this year.
Max Clark played like a Top 25 hitter in baseball ⚡️
The big leaguewide news on Thursday was a new set of proposals from MLB to the players’ union regarding the new CBA. Those proposals include cutting the season to 154 games, planning a regular day off per week for teams as a result, while using that off day to showcase one game featuring two top teams on a national broadcast. The minor leagues and the NPB already both have Monday off for the whole league outside of special exceptions. MLB also floated the idea that top seeds in the postseason should get to pick their opponent, as well as expanding the divisional round to best-of-seven formats. Simply put, they want more lucrative postseason baseball to broadcast, and cutting back regular season games allows them to trim some player payroll as well.
Aaron Judge wants the Yankees front office to keep Aaron Boone and go “all in” to win next season. I don’t know, maybe having their best player on the field in the postseason would do the trick.
RotoGraphs looks at five hitters who broke out in 2026 to see if they can be trusted next year.
Finally, Manny Machado was robbed of a potential game-tying home run in Game 4 of their NLDS series against the Brewers. It was extremely reminiscent of another time Machado was robbed in right center field at Petco Park. That’s tough work from your home stadium, but those low walls do create opportunities for exciting robberies. And hey, at least there’s no roofs involved…
ST. PETERSBURG, FL - OCTOBER 03: Austin Wells #28 of the New York Yankees slides into third base during Game One of the American League Division Series presented by Booking.com between the New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on Saturday, October 3, 2026 in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mike Carlson/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Another year, another disappointing postseason exit for the Yankees, who were swept by the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL Division Series after another frustrating and heartbreaking defeat on Wednesday night. The Bombers haven’t won it all since 2009, and they are evidently falling behind other organizations in recent years despite their high payroll.
What’s preventing the Yankees from lifting the World Series trophy again? What’s keeping them from competing toe to toe against the very best? That’s a long, complex question, but from this particular writer’s perspective, five reasons stand out. This is not meant to be a ranking, rather a full accounting of possible causes. There’s no one cure-all; most, if not all, will need to be addressed come 2027.
Underachieving in the regular season
Since 2021, the Yankees have failed to win at least 90 games just once, when they were 82-80 in 2023 and missed the postseason. However, they have captured the division just twice out of those six seasons.
Home-field advantage is big in October, and failing to win the division means they won’t get it if they advance to the Division Series. Of course, winning on the road is a must for every top-tier contender—the 1996 Yankees famously went 8-0 on the road en route to their championship—but higher-seeded squads who additionally play most of their games at home are notoriously hard to beat, as the Yankees have repeatedly found out.
The Yankees haven’t enjoyed home-field advantage in any of the postseason series they’ve lost, dating all the way back to the beginning of this run with Aaron Judge in 2017. Houston somewhat infamously had it in the 2017, 2019, and 2022 ALCS battles; Boston had it in 2018 and 2021; Tampa Bay had it in 2020 (albeit at empty Petco) and 2026; the Dodgers had it 2024; and the Blue Jays had it in 2025. Obviously the Yankees have had issues fending off top playoff foes in their own ballpark anyway, but that’s also all after falling behind the eight-ball in a hurry in so many of those early-series games.
Failure to consistently put the ball in play
Unlike the Jays-Yankees 2025 AL Division Series, the home run output of both the Rays and the Yankees in this year’s matchup was fairly close, with Tampa Bay winning the battle 3-2. However, they struck out 18 times, and the Yankees 31. New York also lost the strikeout battle in that 2025 series vs. the Blue Jays, 37-24. Those are some lopsided totals. You can’t strike out that much and expect to win, especially if the power production isn’t there.
Yes, power is huge in the postseason. It’s almost always a deciding factor. But in instances in which pitching is so good, every detail counts. Putting the ball in play matters, too, and that’s a department in which the 2026 Yankees often failed: in the regular season, they were second in home runs, but 26th in batting average (.235) and fourth in strikeout percentage (K%, at 24.7 percent).
Lack of elite up-the-middle defense and athleticism
Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda, and Ryan Vilade—just to name a few—aren’t particularly good defenders (Caminero did make some strides this year). However, they are all corner guys. Up the middle, they have mostly elite defenders such as shortstop Taylor Walls, second baseman Richie Palacio, and outfielders Chandler Simpson and Jonny DeLuca.
Walls finished the 2026 campaign with 21 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) at shortstop, while Simpson had eight DRS and eight Outs Above Average (OAA) while playing mostly left field. DeLuca racked up five DRS and 13 (!) OAA in 787 innings in the outfield.
The Yanks had Trent Grisham and his -8 DRS and -6 OAA, clearly having lost much more than a step in center. Spencer Jones could be a bit of an adventure out there, too. The promising, but still inexperienced and erratic George Lombard Jr. was at shortstop. And, well, Jazz Chisholm Jr., doesn’t always make the best decisions on the field.
True contenders should have elite athletes making plays on the field and helping their pitching staff.
Flaws in player evaluation
At this point, it’s clear that the Rays have the clear edge here and make excellent use of their resources and modern approach to player analysis and evaluation. The Yankees, on the other hand, appear to be a step behind the elite and need new voices, methods, and practices. Whereas they have a good handle on their pitching apparatus with Matt Blake, James Rowson’s work since taking over the job at the start of 2024 has been a mixed bag, especially when Aaron Judge wasn’t available. No team plays at its best without its top player, but the Yankees were a bottom-10 offense from June 1st onward. Their ALDS was the worst of any offense in franchise history.
You see the difference between the two organizations in the seemingly ‘little’ things such as picking the right manager, lineup construction, defensive alignment, player development practices, coaching, and more. They are definitely not ‘little’.
Lack of fundamentals
Let’s face it: the Yankees lack fundamentals. We are not talking about playing small ball, executing sac bunts, hit-and-run, moving the runners, or things like that. We mean making the routine plays, swinging with purpose at the right pitches, laying off those outside the strike zone, running hard to first base and putting pressure on the fielders, playing defense the right (and smart) way, and exercising controlled aggressiveness on the basepaths.
Truly elite squads rarely give away outs on the basepaths, as Austin Wells did in Game 1. They don’t commit four errors in a postseason game (and even more misplays) as the Yankees did on Monday. They don’t try to force plays where they just don’t exist, or expand the strike zone so much.
Former Westlake High star Christian Yelich leads the former Southland products playing for the Brewers. (Charles Rex Arbogast / Associated Press)
If the Brewers are going to take down the heavily favored Dodgers, their group of Southland products will be key in the National League Championship Series that begins Sunday in Milwaukee.
This is awesome: @ChristianYelich sent a letter to the high school seniors at his alma mater.
Former Westlake star Christian Yelich is Mr. Brewer. He’s a three-time All-Star and the National League MVP in 2018. He’s always been willing to come back to the community and make contributions.
Giving back. Christian Yelich and Max Fried signing autographs on Saturday for Altadena Little Leaguers. pic.twitter.com/3fzOBF5bCw
First baseman Jake Bauers is a Marina High graduate who lost in the Southern Section Division 1 championship game at Dodger Stadium to Jack Flaherty and Harvard-Westlake 1-0. Here’s a look at Bauers this season.
Former Marina first baseman Jake Bauers has 21 home runs for the Milwaukee Brewers. (Eric Sondheimer / Los Angeles Times)
1919 – Chicago White Sox starter Lefty Williams gets just one man out in the first inning and the Cincinnati Reds go on to a 10-5 victory. Cincinnati wins the best-of-nine World Series in eight games. A year after the Series ends, the White Sox will become the “Black Sox“, and eight players will be barred from baseball for taking part in throwing the Series, including Williams who was allegedly threatened before the game to make sure the outcome is no longer in doubt after the first inning.
1920 – Several hours before the start of Game 4 of the World Series, Brooklyn’sRube Marquard, a Cleveland native, is arrested when he tries to sell a ticket to an undercover cop for $350. He will be found guilty and fined a dollar and court costs ($3.80). For their first World Series game on the lakefront, 25,734 Indians fans watch their home team score two in the first and two in the third off Leon Cadore and Al Mamaux. Cleveland wins the game, 5-1.
1958 – The New York Yankees’Bob Turley pitches 6.2 shutout innings in relief to beat the Milwaukee Braves, 6-2, for the World Series title. New York becomes the first team since 1925 to win the World Series after being down three games to one.
1966 – In the World Series, Dave McNally of the Baltimore Orioles wraps up a brilliant pitching display, and a World Championship, with a four-hit 1-0 victory. Frank Robinson‘s home run off Don Drysdale gives Baltimore a surprising sweep of the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers. The 33 consecutive scoreless innings pitched by Baltimore sets a World Series record.
2017 – In the ALDS, Houston eliminates Boston with a 5-4 win in Game 4. Boston takes a 3-2 lead in the 5th on a two-run homer by Andrew Benintendi off Justin Verlander, making the first relief appearance of his career. In the eighth, Alex Bregman ties it with a solo homer off Chris Sale, also making an unexpected relief outing, before Carlos Beltran drives in the go-ahead run with a single off closer Craig Kimbrel.
Today in Cubs history:
1938 – In the World Series, the New York Yankees become the first team to win three successive World Championships, defeating the Cubs, 8-3. Red Ruffing posts his second victory of the Series as the Yankees sweep the Cubs for the second time in six years.
2015 – John Lackey is the star, pitching 7.1 innings during which he gives up no runs on two hits, making a 1-0 Cardinals lead dating back to the 1st inning hold. The Cards score three more runs in the bottom of the eighth, on a pinch-hit homer by Tommy Pham and a two-run shot by Stephen Piscotty, and end up 4-0 winners over the Cubs and Jon Lester.
2017 – Max Scherzer pitches no-hit ball until one out in the seventh, when Ben Zobrist hits a double for the Cubs then scores the tying run on a single by pinch-hitter Albert Almora. In the eighth, Anthony Rizzo drops a hit between a trio of players in the outfield to allow Leonys Martin to score from second, and Chicago wins Game 3 of the NLDS, 2-1, over Washington.
2025 – In the other NLDS, Ian Happ hits a three-run homer off Freddy Peralta in the bottom of the 1st, and it’s all the runs the Cubs need as they go on to defeat the Brewers, 6-0. The win forces a decisive Game 5 to be played.
1000 – Leif Erikson reaches “Vinland” (possibly L’Anse aux Meadows, Canada), reputedly becoming the first European to reach North America.
1781 – Americans under George Washington and the French under Comte de Rochambeau begin bombardment of Yorktown, the last battle of American Revolutionary War.
1924 – Municipal Grant Park Stadium in Chicago, Illinois (later known as Soldier Field) is officially dedicated.
1936 – Hoover Dam begins transmitting electricity to Los Angeles.
1965 – The Beatles’ single “Yesterday” goes No. 1 and stays there for four weeks.
2012 – Women’s rights and education activist Malala Yousafzai is shot by a Taliban gunman as she tries to board her school bus in the Swat district of northwest Pakistan.
2022 – Brightest cosmic explosion ever seen: a gamma-ray burst 2.4 billion light-years away, believed to be a massive star collapsing to form a black hole in a 1-in-10,000-year event.
Sep 10, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; General view of the helmet used by the Milwaukee Brewers before the start of the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-Imagn Images | Stan Szeto-Imagn Images
Greetings, Brew Crew Ball community. The Brewers are back in the National League Championship Series for the second consecutive season and the third time in the last nine years, and they’ll face the Dodgers once again — the third time facing L.A. in the NLCS, and their fourth time facing them in the postseason. Milwaukee was swept a season ago, but they’ve improved from last season, while the Dodgers mostly maintained their status quo. Does the Crew have what it takes to get past them this time?
Feel free to use this thread to chat about (almost) anything you want: video games, food, movies, non-baseball sports, the Brewers, you name it. As long as it’s appropriate and is allowed by our moderators, it’s fair game here.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - SEPTEMBER 30: Bryce Harper #3 of the Philadelphia Phillies reacts after a home run against the Atlanta Braves during the eighth inning in game two of the National League Wild Card Series at Truist Park on September 30, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Edward M. Pio Roda/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The NLCS is set. The ALCS isn’t. The Senior Circuit’s juggernaut is still in play, while the Junior Circuit, regardless of the outcome of the Division Series, will be sending an underdog to the Fall Classic. (Can you really call the Rays an underdog when they’ve been one of the best teams in baseball this season? That’s a semantic question I don’t particularly care to get into).
BALTIMORE, MD - SEPTEMBER 05: A general view before the game between the Baltimore Orioles and the Boston Red Sox at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 5, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Hello, friends.
There are 166 days remaining until the next scheduled Orioles game. Whether an Orioles game (or any MLB game) happens on that date or any time close after is not something we are going to know until probably mid-February, when spring training begins. I’m already dreading having nothing going on in December and January, not that I expect anyone reading this to share the particular concerns of running a baseball blog.
For now, there are the playoffs as a diversion. Except, there won’t be any games played today. Both National League series wrapped up in four games, setting up a Dodgers-Brewers NLCS rematch. Their division series would have played Game 5 today. That wasn’t needed after all.
There will be one more division series game played on Friday. The Guardians-White Sox series is going five games. They will be traveling today. Cleveland piled on the runs against Chicago to knot their series at 2-2. They staved off elimination after losing both games at home to start the series. It won’t mean much if they lose their last home game as well. This Game 4 happened to be the first time all postseason that a team that scored at least four runs lost the game. The White Sox managed this because they gave up many more than four runs in the process.
Seeing these games play out, it really calls to attention what the good teams and good-enough teams have that the Orioles do not. Maybe if they had managed to sneak in, they might have had enough to knock off the Astros, and you could probably argue there’s better pitching in the O’s stable than what the White Sox have been able to bring to bear this postseason. Mostly though, the Orioles aren’t on this level. Certainly not on the level of most of the teams that will play in the league championship series round.
Can it be better next season? That’s the question we all want to know the answer to. The labor situation means that this is not a great offseason to be a team trying to enact different plans for your players, because coaches and management will not be able to check in with anybody after the lockout hits on December 1. It will take until spring training – whenever that comes along – to start to see who really did the work and who was, as Chris Bassitt recently put it when assessing the 2026 team, just checking the boxes.
Orioles stuff you might have missed
What process are the Orioles trusting? (Defector) It’s always worth reading when Defector turns its sights on the Orioles, even though you know this only happens when things aren’t going well.
Orioles missteps testing limits of fan support (The Baltimore Sun) The team managed to draw around 25,000 more fans this year than last year. If things don’t improve early next year, I wonder what that picture is going to look like.
Six Orioles ranked in MLB Pipeline’s top 100 (MASN) Is this worth anything? Here’s an indirect way of answering that: The last time the Orioles had six top 100 prospects on this list was at the start of the 2023 season. These were the prospects: Colton Cowser, DL Hall, Jackson Holliday, Heston Kjerstad, Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westburg. You don’t need me to tell you what those six players collectively contributed to the 2026 Orioles.
2026 Orioles draft report card (Baseball America) Subscription required to see the thoughts on this year’s draft. People like it! For now.
Birthdays and Orioles anniversaries
Today in 1966, the Orioles won their first World Series title by finishing a sweep of the Dodgers. Frank Robinson hit a home run that scored the game’s only run; Dave McNally pitched a four-hit shutout as the O’s knocked off the defending champions.
In 1971, the Orioles beat the Pirates in Game 1 of the World Series. McNally featured again, throwing a three-hit complete game as the O’s won, 5-3.
In 1996, Jeffrey Maier happened. I’m never going to be over it until the Orioles win a title in my lifetime.
In 2014, the Orioles reached a contract extension with J.J. Hardy in between the division series and ALCS rounds of the postseason. Although this seemed exciting at the time, Hardy had negative value in two of the three years of the new contract.
There are a few former Orioles who have birthdays today. They are: 2015-16 reliever Chaz Roe, 2013 four-game outfielder Jason Pridie, and 2001-13 infielder Brian Roberts. Today is Roberts’s 49th birthday, so an extra happy birthday to him.
Is today your birthday? Happy birthday to you as well! Your birthday buddies for today include: French scandal figure Alfred Dreyfus (1859), baseball Hall of Famer Rube Marquard (1886), The Beatles member John Lennon (1940), movie maker Guillermo del Toro (1964), University of Maryland basketball standout Juan Dixon (1978), and professional organizer Marie Kondo (1984).
On this day in history…
In 1806, Prussia launched the War of the Fourth Coalition against Napoleonic France. Nine months later, the war was over and Prussia lost half of its territory in the peace settlements.
In 1919, the Cincinnati Reds beat the Chicago White Sox in the World Series, a series that is now known for the Black Sox scandal.
In 1986, The Phantom of the Opera opened in London. The musical is still continuously running in the West End, though its record-setting Broadway run ended in 2023. Phantom is only the second-longest-running West End musical, trailing the previous year’s Les Miserables – also still running continuously there since its premiere.
**
And that’s the way it is in Birdland on October 9. Have a safe Friday.
Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Jacob Misiorowski reacts after striking out San Diego's Luis Campusano during Game 1 of the NLDS on Oct. 3. (Kayla Wolf / Associated Press)
Tanner Scott stuck upside-down beers in Friedman’s shirt. Alex Freeland dumped beer into his mouth and all over his face. Eric Lauer coordinated a sneak attack, announcing that he was heading to the showers before reappearing from a side entrance.
Friedman never stopped grinning. But it almost looked like he had an extra glint in his eye when asked whether he’d rather take on the Milwaukee Brewers or San Diego Padres in the NLCS.
Later that night, the Brewers advanced, locking in an NLCS rematch that could certainly deliver chaos.
The Dodgers and Brewers are meeting in the playoffs for the fourth time in nine years. Last season, the Dodgers swept Milwaukee in the NLCS.
Usually before playing a big-market team like the Dodgers, Brewers manager Pat Murphy leans into the underdog narrative by saying he suspects the opponent can’t name many of the Brewers players. But by becoming perennial playoff contenders, and posting the best record in the majors over the past two seasons, the Brewers have given up whatever anonymity they may have had when they promoted Murphy a few years ago.
The cast of characters on both sides has remained relatively consistent since last October. But even after trading away top pitcher Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee is a more complete team than last season.
But losing talented players hasn’t stopped the Brewers from winning the last four NL Central titles. They keep saying goodbye to top players — including Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes, closer Devin Williams and shortstop Willy Adames — then raise their win total.
The biggest difference-maker has been Jacob Misiorowski, who had the lowest ERA (1.80) in the majors this season and is the NL Cy Young favorite. As a rookie last year, the flame-thrower was relegated to the postseason bullpen until the NLCS. This year, he was the Brewers’ Game 1 starter in the NLDS against the Padres.
The Brewers have long hung their hat on playing sound baseball, from pitching and defense to baserunning. But the knock on them has been the lack of thump in their lineup.
First baseman Jake Bauers had a career season, leading the team in home runs (26), on-base percentage (.389) and on-base-plus-slugging percentage (.873). Jackson Chourio, who was hobbled by a hamstring injury in the last NLCS, hit a career-high 25 home runs and led the team in slugging percentage (.487). And though the Brewers likely won’t out-slug the Dodgers — they hit 50 fewer home runs during the season — they have a pesky roster that stole 90 more bases.
The Brewers also had a better regular-season record (103-59) than the Dodgers (100-62), so the series will begin in Milwaukee on Sunday.
Signs point to a more competitive series than last year. The Brewers even entered the postseason with the better World Series odds (18.5%) than the Dodgers (16.7%), according to Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA standings.
“The mistake that the outside perspective kind of gets sometimes is to underestimate certain teams,” said Kiké Hernández as the Dodgers celebrated their NLDS victory. “And we knew we had a tough task ahead of us. [The Braves are] a team that was playing really good baseball, had a lot of momentum, and they were throwing the ball really well. They had a really good bullpen, a lot of different kinds of arms, and, fortunately for us, they were a little bit short on starting pitching, so they had to tax their bullpen to a point where it paid off for us.”
The Dodgers ended the series before it returned to Los Angeles for an if-necessary Game 5. So they got to turn their attention to the Brewers a couple days early.
“I think the strength of our team is our rotation,” Friedman said. “And so even if we weren’t able to reset it, we still feel like it would be a strength of ours. But to be able to line it up the way we want to, certainly advantageous. To be able to have a few days off our feet and rest up for Sunday, also really helpful.”
SPRINGFIELD, MO - AUGUST 30: Tre Richardson III #8 of the Springfield Cardinals high fives teammates prior to the game between the San Antonio Missions and the Springfield Cardinals at Hammons Field on Sunday, August 30, 2026 in Springfield, Missouri. (Photo by Kaylee Vaughan/Minor League Baseball via Getty Images)
VEB points will be awarded to contributors who can identify the prospect on the opening screen. Hint…one of the most surprising break-out performances of the 2026 season, especially in regards to power.
What was going on in the minor leagues?
If you haven’t heard, power numbers are up throughout the minor leagues. Most notably, the power numbers are REALLY up in the levels AA back down through Low-A. AAA? Not so much. Almost flat-earth at AAA. The AAA league the Redbirds play in has seen only a .3% change in HR rate.
Baseball America (behind a paywall) recently published on article on the very topic I’ve been monitoring for a bit. For those with BA subscriptions, you can read it here. If you don’t have a subscription, you can satisfy yourself with my high-level summary of their work (which as usual is very good – their work).
You can see from the data points above the MiLB scoring has hit a high point in 2026. The data is a little slim to determine if that ratchet up from 2024-2025 is extreme or if it just looks that way because those 2024 and 2025 years were down years. Regardless, scoring is up.
Sure enough, homerun rates follow a similar trajectory. Lots more, especially this year. Why? First, BA stripped out AAA runs and HRs and found that the AAA experience is not nearly as extreme as the other 4 MiLB levels. Suspicious? They naturally land on the different baseball being used as a likely culprit. Intuitive, but I’m not sure they convinced me of the leap from increased HR = increased runs = juiced MiLB baseball. I checked with some Cardinal folks and they too believe that while there may be something there, the jury is still out on what or how much.
Moving on, BA focused on actual batted ball data out of the Florida State League (FSL). Every team (except Daytona) has Hawkeye systems installed, so they get the proverbial Statcast data that is publicly available.
Authors Note: You guys have seen my prior articles on Cardinals and the Technology Revolution. Through my research for this article, I was able to confirm that the Cardinals now have Hawkeye installed at all affiliates except the Florida Complex League (if you’ve seen the backfield they play on, you’d understand why not there). Now that the FSL is done, some FCL guys will play at RDS and they will get some fine detail on those players.
Long story short, in looking at the FSL data, BA found that a lot of the unusual increase in homeruns fell into a group of batted balls I would consider mid-tier EV fly balls (95-105 mph) hit at an optimal trajectory, where the avg fly ball seems to travel about 5-10 feet farther this year, leading them to suspect the ball. This finding appears to account for about 50% of the increase in runs/HRs. More specifically, they found that mostly it was the pulled and opposite field fly balls that experienced the unusual HR increase, not so much balls hit to the deepest part. Stated succinctly, a fly ball pulled (or hit opp0) that travels 350 feet instead of 340 has a pretty high chance of changing from a deep fly to a wall-scraping HR. Unlike a ball hit to centerfield, where a 350 foot flyball looks an awful lot like a 340 foot fly ball and likely has the same result as last year. Good points.
That is my summary of BA’s fine work. If you want more detail, check it out in the link above.
I’ll add to this a little science. Two batted ball metrics that affect the balls flight are the Coefficient of Resistance (COR) and drag. Interestingly, one of the weird effects of drag is that some balls hit in that mid-tier EV mph range and hit at an optimal angle tend to generate a little extra lift at the end of their journey and have a tendency to float, so a not quite barreled fly ball may float a bit if it was hit at the optimal launch angle (think: between like 27 and 30 degrees). Not dissimilar to how an airplane wing generates optimal lift at the right attack angle – not too steep, not too shallow.
So the BA data may indeed be showing us a different ball, but it may also be showing us that the hitting instructional evolution around optimizing swing path is beginning to take hold at the lower minors and making the hitting experience down there more similar to the upper minors and MLB.
How does it affect evaluation of Cardinal prospects?
I spoke with Director of Hitting Dalton Hurd about this topic. They really evaluate players on their process, less so their results. Swing path, swing decisions, launch angle, etc., etc. are what they look at. In a sense, they value process over results. Not that you ignore results, but if the process is right, they expect good results. If one year the environment produces great (instead of good) results due to the ball or the weather or whatever, they can kind of wash that out by remaining focused on the process of hitting. Not quite said, but suggested, was the implication that better coaching, league wide, is likely contributing to better launch angles and higher EV.
For years, we’d look at stat lines of players in a place like Low-A (or previously High-A) Palm Beach, and we would have to remind ourselves that a .710 OPS by a 19-year-old really wasn’t that bad, because the run environment was harsh on hitters, particularly ones who hadn’t fully matured yet. We’d attenuate our evaluation due to the environment the player experienced. Now we look in 2026 and find that the run environment isn’t quite so harsh. Why? Well, the BA article says about 50% of the offensive increase is likely due to the baseball. But what about the fact that RDS fences were moved in after the 2024 season? Also, what about the overall reduction in players due to minor league contraction and reductions in the draft length?
I did do a wee little bit of research to see if Park Factors for a renovated RDS might be part of the equation. Pre-renovation, using 2023 numbers, run production in RDS is pretty much the same (RDS suppresses runs by about 10%) as it was in 2026. Interestingly, HR suppression improved quite a bit, from an abysmal 81 in 2023 to 94 (still below average) in 2026. Ball? Or park? Or hitters? Or all of the above?
I was reminded not to overlook that the minor leagues were compresses and the draft shorten. This could theoretically have the effects that: 1) the remaining group is by definition higher quality and you’d expect higher output and 2) don’t be shocked if you looked closely and found that some higher OPS, higher whiff guys are now coming up the system faster, instead of marinating in the Complex League longer. Higher OPS, higher whiff translate to higher EV and higher HR rates, which is what BA observed as the major eye catcher when looking at the data. Even if that player strikes out a ton. True outcomes and all…
We discussed a group of players who blazed through High-A Peoria at a time when the whole Midwest League was experiencing quite a jump in HR rates. This group will include some familiar names – Tai Peete, Won-Bin Cho, Rainel Rodriguez, Jack Gurevitch, Tre Richardson III. If you are a honk for “the MiLB ball is juiced”, you will have some trouble explaining how exactly the plethora of HRs hit by that group at Peoria seemed to follow them to Springfield and didn’t stay behind in Peoria to boost up the other players, as Peoria saw a drop in offense mid-season as those guys moved up. Notably, at the same time a weak Springfield offense saw quite a surge. Everyone I spoke with denied shipping pallets of juiced baseballs from Peoria to Springfield along with the players. Also, a juiced ball doesn’t explain how each of these phenoms struggled early after their promotion and then found the right adjustment to take off (again). It’s not like the AA league quit using a “juiced ball” for a couple of weeks to confound RainRod honks.
Hurd told me they really discourage players from trying to take advantage of environmental things (like a short porch of whatever) and just stick with the process. A good swing will produce good results. Good launch angle, good EV will produce good results over time. Trust the process, they say. He said in all five cases, each of those players had successfully made observable adjustments that explains their success. Not spoken, but by implication, this suggests a player seeing an increase in offense but is not advancing may be someone who isn’t really adjusting their approach but perhaps riding the wave that lifts everyone. I didn’t ask specifically, but one might think of Sammy Hernandez in this vein.
He did acknowledge that the ball could be having some effect, although he thought the jury is still out on how much. I gathered they somewhat ignore the unusual results because they are universal. If Cardinal hitters were NOT experiencing some extra oomph and everyone else was, they’d be more concerned about it. Also, they recognize there are so many uncontrollable factors involved in hitting and it could swing back the other way next year. So they focus on what they can control – the hitting process.
In the end, the story seems to be about trusting the hitting process, and that good process leads to good results (and advancement). And recognizing that much of hitting involves a lot of things the hitters can’t control like game time, temperature, humidity, pitch quality, the ball, etc.
A rabbit hole
One thing that came up that I haven’t yet had time to fully digest. Part of the hitting evolution involves where to contact the baseball relative to the plate. Since pulling the ball requires getting to the ball further out front (and going oppo allows for the ball to travel further), I think we’d have to look not only at whether pulled/opps hits are more likely to scrape over the wall, we’d need to know if more balls are being contacted well out front (close to 36” in front of the plate) and/or allowed to travel deeper in the zone (less than 30” for an opposite field direction).
Note: This little morsel is something I’ve been poking on since it seems to be something the Brewers have discovered that no other team has. The Brewers have a pretty strong tendency to allow the ball to travel and hit the ball oppo during most game situations. They essentially sacrifice power for OBP through scattering the ball to all fields and having increased contact, instead of selling out for pull side power. This approach defeats shifting, but also sags HR rates.
Fascinatingly, in high leverage situations, they revert more to pull side power. While their overall HR rate is very low by modern MLB standards, their close-and-late HR rate is average. Like they change hitting approaches mid-game. Interesting. It stands to reason that some of the data on MiLB runs is the opposite of this…most teams are selling out for launch angle with pull side power, and those slightly mis-hit, wall scraping HRs might well be the end result of that. This winter, I might try and dig into a data source that tells me how much MiLB hitters are trying to make contact well out in front of the plate. Getting pitch-by-pitch data on MiLB batters that would include contact point might be challenging, though. If only StL made that Hawkeye data available…
