Category: Baseball

Yes, the Yankees trail in the ALDS against the Rays. But in Game 2, they have the best possible path to getting even in the best-of-five series, at least when their guy is on the mound. 

Presumptive AL Cy Young Award winner Cam Schlittler is starting for the Yanks at Tropicana Field and he’s in the process of authoring a postseason resume for the ages -- so, obviously, the ace is one of our three things to watch as the series resumes Monday night.

Cam on cam

Schlittler is in a big spot, since dropping the first two games to the Rays would put the Yanks on the precipice of elimination. He seems equipped to handle such circumstances, however, considering his domination of the Red Sox in a win-or-go-home game in last year’s Wild Card Series, his obliteration of them in Game 1 this year, and his postseason resume as a whole -- 0.87 ERA, 24-1 K/BB ratio in 20.2 innings pitched. 

For whatever it’s worth, Schlittler has been even better on the road this season than at Yankee Stadium, fashioning a 1.16 ERA in away games versus 2.98 at home -- at the Trop, it was 2.77 in two starts. Opponents had an OPS nearly 200 points lower against Schlittler in road games (.456 vs. .649). 

Junior Caminero is the only Rays player with a home run off Schlittler -- in the righty's third career start. Taylor Walls and Richie Palacios each have three hits against him. But Schlittler has been tough on Yandy Díaz (2-for-13, five strikeouts) and Jonathan Aranda (1-for-8, six strikeouts).

As Rays manager Kevin Cash noted in a news conference Sunday, the Rays laid off Schlittler’s top-of-the-zone four-seamer during the pitcher’s final start of the season, a brief playoff tuneup. “If you’re going to swing at that, you’re likely not going to hit it or have much success with it,” Cash said. 

Clearly, the Rays will try that again if Schlittler approaches them in a similar way. But the ace also came at the Red Sox with some variety, throwing his curveball nearly three times more than his usage all season. The Red Sox swung at it 16 times and missed eight of those. He finished off four of his 10 strikeouts with the pitch. 

How will he use it against the Rays? 

Fanfare for Fastball Freddy

There will be a lot of eyeballs in Tampa Bay on Rays starter Freddy Peralta, as well. Queens, too. Peralta was brought to the Mets last winter in hopes he’d be starting in the playoffs for them, but he did not pitch well, they didn’t play well, and the Mets traded him to the Rays at the deadline. 

He’s been much better in his new stop, though this season overall he did not get strikeouts at his usual high rate.

Peralta had a 3.25 ERA in 10 starts with Tampa, including a 0.79 ERA over his last six starts, and a 1.69 ERA across his final four home starts. Expect him to pitch well at the Trop, though, six different Yankees have homered against him during his career. Cody Bellinger is 6-for-14 lifetime (.429) with a 1.270 OPS. 

Aaron Boone said there were players who worked out Sunday at the Yankees’ spring training facility in Tampa and he mentioned they have a Trajekt machine there, a detailed hitting machine with video. That would let hitters get repeated looks at Peralta’s release point, pitch shapes, and other eyeball data. 

Maybe that impacts their success against Peralta, who has a 4.32 ERA in nine postseason games.

Decision at third? 

In two playoff games in which their opponent has started a right-hander, the Yanks have used eight lefty hitters in their lineup, with shortstop George Lombard Jr. as the only right-handed bat. Might matchups at least make them ponder a change at third base? Ryan McMahon is 1-for-14 with four strikeouts lifetime against Peralta. 

In much smaller sample sizes, here’s what other potential third-base options have done: Anthony Volpe is 2-for-4 with a homer, a double, and two strikeouts, and José Caballero has fanned in both of his at-bats. 

After an offensive splurge in the Boston series, the Yankees did not score and were just 1-for-27 in the opener against Drew Rasmussen and Bryan Baker. Do they need a lineup move or was that mostly about an ace and a closer dealing? 

Volpe has exactly one game of experience at third in the major leagues. McMahon, who is 1-for-6 this postseason, is a quality defender there and hit all 11 of his home runs this year against righties. 

LOS ANGELES — Josue De Paula popped out as a pinch-hitter for the final out of Game 2, in his major league postseason debut. The comeback attempt fell short, but just by getting into a game at his age was notable.

De Paula on Sunday was 21 years, 133 days old, and became only the fourth Dodgers position player that young to appear in a postseason game, and the first since 19-year-old outfielder Willie Crawford appeared in Game 6 of the 1965 World Series. The other Dodgers position players younger than De Paula to play in the postseason were both 21-year-old outfielders — Eddie Miskis in the 1947 World Series and Ron Fairly in the 1959 World Series.

The other Dodgers as young or younger than De Paula to play in the postseason were pitchers — Johnny Podres (1955) and Don Drysdale (1956) for Brooklyn, followed by Fernando Valenzuela (1981), Clayton Kershaw (2008), and Julio Urías (2016).

Of these nine players all no older than 21 years, 133 days old, only De Paula, Valenzuela (0 for 7, walk, sacrifice), and Urías (0 for 1) batted in the postseason at Dodger Stadium. So it can be said that Josue De Paula is the youngest Dodgers position player to bat in the postseason in the 65-year history of Dodger Stadium.

If we count players from other teams, six position players were younger than De Paula playing in the postseason at Chavez Ravine:

• Claudell Washington, A’s, 1974 World Series — 20 years, 42 days in first game
• Gregg Jefferies, Mets, 1988 NLCS — 21 years, 64 days
• Andruw Jones, Braves, 1996 NLDS — 19 years, 162 days
• Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves, 2018 NLDS — 20 years, 290 days
• Juan Soto, Nationals, 2019 NLDS — 20 years, 343 days
• Jordan Lawlar, Diamondbacks, 2023 NLDS — 21 years, 84 days

De Paula’s postseason debut followed a busy day for the rookie, who was also honored along with pitcher Christian Zazueta as the Dodgers minor league player and pitcher of the year for 2026.

During a pregame session in the media room at Dodger Stadium, De Paula was asked if he was more nervous talking to media or being in the batter’s box.

“I don’t feel like it’s nerve-racking, you know what I’m saying? I’m just talking with people. We’re all people at the end of the day,” De Paula said. “I love being in the batter’s box. I love competing. It’s not really nerve-racking. It’s normal.”

Late Friday, MLB Trade Rumors posted their annual salary projections for arbitration-eligible players for next year.

It will be interesting to see how many of these players wind up being signed before the owners’ lockout, which will almost certainly happen after the Dec. 1 expiration of the MLB/MLBPA collective bargaining agreement. It seems likely that teams will want some cost certainty with arb-eligible players before the lockout. For example, we don’t know what the MLB minimum salary will be under any new CBA, as well as uncertainty about salaries in general.

As always, we await developments. In the meantime, here are the MLBTR projections for the 12 Cubs players who are arb-eligible for 2027, listed in the order they are posted in the MLBTR article.

Justin Steele: $6.8 million

Steele made $6.55 million for four starts in 2025 before his Tommy John surgery ended that season. Then he was paid $6.775 million this year and didn’t throw a single MLB pitch.

2027 will be Steele’s final arb-eligible season, but I don’t see the Cubs paying him even that relatively small sum, not after missing nearly two full seasons. Instead, I would guess they will non-tender him and come to some sort of agreement on a two-year deal that would have incentives in the first year and a vesting option for the second year.

Edward Cabrera: $4.8 million

Cabrera made $4.45 million in 2026 and had a really bad year. Nevertheless, he has talent and two years of team control remaining. This doesn’t seem an unreasonable number.

Braxton Garrett: $1.6 million

Garrett was paid $1.53 million in 2026 as he returned from TJS. He could be a really good under-the-radar rotation guy next year. This seems a very reasonable figure.

Javier Assad: $2.3 million

Assad was paid $1.8 million and the team has a $3.3 million option on him for 2027. He’s under team control through 2028. I would guess the Cubs would rather pay him the $2.3 million figure.

Tyler Austin: $1.3 million

Austin did not play a single game anywhere in 2026. He was expected to back up Michael Busch at first base after hitting well (.293/.377/.568) in six years in NPB.

The Cubs can do better, I think. He’ll likely be non-tendered.

Miguel Amaya: $1.7 million

2027 is Amaya’s first arb-eligible season. Pay the man.

Gabriel Arias: $1.3 million

2027 is Arias’ first arb-eligible season, but this is a tough one. He barely played for the Cubs (seven games, all but one as a pinch-runner/defensive replacement. He’s useful in that role, but perhaps the Cubs can find a minimum-salary guy who can do the same.

Ryan Rolison: $1.1 million

Again, here’s a first-time arb-eligible guy. He had a good season and could be a useful lefty out of the pen for another few years. Pay the man.

Ethan Roberts: $800,000

Roberts finished the year at Triple-A Iowa, where he was optioned after his rehab assignment ended. $800,000 is on the very low end of arb salaries, but Roberts is 29 and hasn’t really shown much at the MLB level. I could go either way on this — pay him, or non-tender him.

Michael Busch: $5.4 million

Here’s another Cub who is first-time arbitration eligible. While his performance declined somewhat from his very good 2025 season, he plays a solid first base and has power. This amount doesn’t seem unreasonable. Busch has three years of team control remaining.

Ben Brown: $1.3 million

There is some uncertainty about Brown’s recovery from his neck injury, but this amount doesn’t seem too much to keep him.

Daniel Palencia: $1.2 million

Pay the man.

Team news

[Arizona Sports] 5 questions the Diamondbacks need to answer this offseason – Arizona has a strong core with catcher Gabriel Moreno, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo, outfielder Corbin Carroll, starters Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson, along with relievers Justin Martinez, Juan Morillo and Brandyn Garcia, all in their 20s. Ketel Marte, Nolan Arenado, Corbin Burnes and Eduardo Rodriguez represent the veteran group. Around them, the roster this past season and looking forward has flaws in need of attention. Here are five questions to shape another critical offseason for an Arizona franchise stuck outside the postseason doors: #1: Will Ketel Marte return?

[MLB Trade Rumors] A Look At Nolan Arenado’s Comeback Year – A look at Arenado’s Statcast page shows an awful lot of blue. He graded out above average in Batting Run Value (+23) and strikeout rate (20.0%, which is a career high). He was valued around average in whiff rate and negatively in everything else. With those kinds of questions in his batting profile, it’s likely that Arenado’s extreme gaps in actual and expected power will normalize next year, and Arenado will be unable to fully repeat his 2026 performance. At the very least, he remains a competent defender at third. While no longer the perennial Gold Glove threat he was during his Colorado prime, Arenado was still worth +2 Outs Above Average at the hot corner this year.

[DbacksRoundTable] D-backs Prospect Brings Dominant Strikeout Ability to Fall League – The Arizona Diamondbacks will send one of their more intriguing pitching prospects to the Arizona Fall League, with Joe Ariola looking to continue an impressive 2026 campaign. The 2025 seventh-round selection out of Wake Forest pitched in the Arizona Complex League, Single-A, High-A and Double-A. Despite the constant movement, Ariola consistently missed bats. He struck out 45.7 percent of the batters he faced over 34.2 innings, finishing with the highest strikeout rate among Minor League pitchers who accumulated at least 30 innings this season. That level of production immediately makes him a pitcher worth watching as he takes another step forward.

And, elsewhere…

[MLB] Padres down 0-2 in NLDS after Miller called upon for 6 outs – The Padres, of course, have been a juggernaut at Petco Park this season, with a 53-30 record, including a pair of playoff wins already. But they’ll need to win two straight Tuesday and Wednesday just to send this series back to Milwaukee for a decisive Game 5 on Friday. In all best-of-five postseason series, teams with an 0-2 deficit have gone on to win the series just 10 of 93 times (11%). Teams that lost the first two games on the road in Division Series with the current 2-2-1 format have gone on to win the series only three of 36 times (8%). The last time a team rallied from an 0-2 hole in a best-of-five series came in the 2017 ALDS, with the Yankees advancing after dropping the first two games at Cleveland.

[NY Post] Dodgers dynasty in serious jeopardy after unforgivable loss to Braves – How did it come to this? The short answer is that Braves manager Walt Weiss gambled – and won. Instead of starting Sale in Game 2, Weiss elected to push him back two days and have him pitch Game 3… The downside for the Braves was considerable. Their two previous games were also bullpen games, and they were counting on a run-down group of relievers to take down Snell and stop the Dodgers from taking a two-games-to-none lead. The Dodgers are at fault for that not happening. If their dreams of a three-peat evaporate over the next week, Game 2 will be the game on which they look back with regret.

[SB Nation] A (Brief) History of Balls Hitting The Roof – This doesn’t happen often, right? Correct, although France’s fly ball was at least the third time in history that a ball has hit the roof in fair territory at American Family Field. It’s actually not the first time that it’s happened in the NLDS; in Game 4 of the 2008 NLDS, Phillies outfielder Jayson Werth hit a fly ball that struck a roof truss and was snagged on a diving catch by none other than Craig Counsell. The second time was in a regular season game in 2018; Reds infielder Scooter Gennett hit a fly ball that, again, came down in fair territory and was caught for an out by Eric Sogard. The third time was last night.

[FrontOfficeSports] Japanese Baseball Is Fighting Back Against MLB Talent Drain – Rakuten, backed by its massive tech ecosystem, integrated a proprietary five-language AI translation tool on its website and tapped into global shipping networks to get merchandise overseas. The organization is actively mapping out expanded English ticketing options at Rakuten Mobile Saikyo Park Miyagi to court international travelers. The Yomiuri Giants are running an English Instagram account and plastering Tokyo airports with ads aimed at inbound tourists. And the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters, who launched Ohtani, have pushed this concept to an architectural extreme.

In October, I’m reviewing 31 horror films from 31 different countries. Here’s today’s entry, for Ukraine

The Witch: Revenge (2024)

• Rating: B
• Dir: Andriy Kolesnyk
• Star: Tetiana Malkova, Olena Khokhlatkina, Pavel Vishnyakov, Taras Tsimbalyuk

The local tag-line for the movie translates into English as “This is a film where a Ukrainian witch kicks the shit out of Russians.” Straightforward and to the point, considering that the two countries have been actively at war with each other for close to five years now. It often happens that conflict informs cinema in the participant countries. We certainly saw that from both sides during World War II. It makes sense, since film will often reflect whatever is preoccupying its intended audience. Film is also, undeniably, used as a tool by the authorities for propaganda. This is, at least in theory, an independent production. Though there’s no question it’s fully informed by the war and, completely unsurprisingly, is designed to appeal to local opinion in this matter.

Read more

The Astros have two teams in the Dominican Summer League and had some standout performances from the international prospects. Let’s take a look.

The DSL Astros Orange put together a strong 2026 season improving on their 32-23 record in 2025 to a 33-20 record in 2026. Below are the team leaders and top performers.

Here are the team leaders (min 100 AB or 30 IP):

TEAM LEADERS
Hits – Franchely Silverio (56)
2B – Sebastian Mendez (12)
3B – Multiple (1)
HR – Albert Fermin/Edwilmin Matos (6)
RBI – Franchely Silverio (45)
BA – Sebastian Mendez (.318)
SB – Sebastian Mendez(49)
OPS – Albert Fermin (.992)
wRC+ – Albert Fermin (147)

IP – Antonio Morales (45.1)
W – Cristian Ron (5)
SV – Miguel Reyes (3)
SO – Antonio Morales (32)
ERA – Victor Jimenez (1.40)

NOTABLES

Albert Fermin, INF
The Astros top international signing in 2026, Fermin put together a phenomenal professional debut. At just 17 years old, the shortstop led the team in home runs, OPS and wRC+. He played in 49 games and hit .311 with 9 doubles, 6 home runs, 24 stolen bases and 51 walks to 38 strikeouts. Also noteworthy was his OPS and wRC+ was higher than Astros current top prospect Kevin Alvarez while he was in the DSL. Great season for Fermin.

Sebastian Mendez, INF
Mendez was in the same class as Fermin and while his bonus number isn’t public, he performed at a high level in 2026. Also just 17 years old, Mendez was electric on the bases collecting 49 stolen bases in 49 games. The left-handed hitting shortstop also led the team in doubles (12) and batting average (.318). While a completely different prospect style than Fermin, he definitely had a big year and could be in the FCL in 2027.

Anthony Millan, OF
Millan received a $472,500 bonus in 2025 and after a solid year in the DSL in 2025, he repeated the level in 2026. He put together another season with some good numbers as the 18-year-old hit .260 with 8 doubles, 3 home runs and stole 19 bases over 44 games. He is a speedy outfielder who should end up stateside in 2027.

Jack Valbrune, OF
Valbrune was signed in 2026 out of Cuba who was a standout for his bat. In 2026 he showed off elite bat to ball skills in the Dominican Summer League. He played in 44 games in the DSL this season and had a ridiculous 31 walk to 14 strikeout ratio. Good for just an 8.3% strikeout rate. He also batted .291.

---

The DSL Astros Blue got off to a hot start but faltered a bit at the end of the season finishing 26-30 in 2026. Below are the team leaders and top performers.

Here are the team leaders (min 100 AB or 30 IP):

TEAM LEADERS
Hits – Santiago Martinez (37)
2B – Santiago Martinez/Randy Arias (7)
3B – Yensi De La Cruz (8)
HR – Sami Manzueta (5)
RBI – Santiago Martinez (32)
BA – Yuaxander Silveira (.262)
SB – Yensi De La Cruz (34)
OPS – Yensi De La Cruz (.799)
wRC+ – Yensi De La Cruz (100)

IP – Omar Damian (40.1)
W – Frederi Altagracia/Joel Jimenez (4)
SV – Juan Ramirez/Thomas Sveyda (2)
SO – Omar Damian (43)
ERA – Angel Brito (2.76)

NOTABLES

Yensi De La Cruz, OF
De La Cruz was signed in May of 2024 and debuted last year. Despite a strong 2025, he repeated the level in 2026 and had some decent numbers again. He lead the team in triples, stolen bases, OPS and wRC+. While the batting average was down, he still finished with 36 stolen bases and 45 walks to just 28 strikeouts.

Randy Arias, INF
Arias was another big international signing for the Astros in January 2026. The shortstop had a solid debut as he posted a .741 OPS with 18 stolen bases and 47 walks to 34 strikeouts. Just 17 years old, Arias might repeat the DSL in 2027 but has plenty of upside remaining.

The Royals have a lot of work to do this offseason to get back to contention. One of the first things they will need to do when the offseason officially begins after the World Series is determine which arbitration-eligible players should be tendered a contract.

MLB Trade Rumors has released its annual arbitration salary projections for this offseason, providing a bit of a clue as to what teams should expect. The Royals have 11 arbitration-eligible players.

Dobnak has a $6 million club option, but if the Royals decline it and pay the $1 million buyout, he would become subject to the arbitration process. He had previously signed a long-term deal with the Twins that paid him $3 million in 2026 before they let him go, which may not be properly factored by MLB Trade Rumors’ model.

The Royals will certainly tender Lynch and Massey after their career-best seasons. Erceg is a decent bet to be tendered after he finished the season strong following some adjustments in the minors. Pearson showed flashes of brilliance, albeit inconsistently, but J.J. Picollo spoke as though they had him in their plans for next year. Anthony Gose gave up just one run in 13.2 innings after the Royals signed him, but he will be 36 years old next year.

The Royals will have an interesting decision on Kyle Isbel. His defense has carried his below-average bat in past seasons. But his offensive numbers really dropped this year, and his salary is enough that the Royals will have to at least consider if he is still worth rostering. Alex Lange had a 6.75 ERA, highest among all qualified relievers. Alec Marsh and James McArthur both missed the entire season with injuries, and Mears missed most of the season with an injury as well.

Under the current system, players are eligible for arbitration once they accrue at least three or more years of service time (plus certain “Super Two” players) but are not yet eligible for free agency. Clubs have to decide whether or not to “tender” the player a contract. If a player is “non-tendered”, they become free agents who can sign with any team.

If the player is tendered, the two sides negotiate on a salary, and if they are unable to come to an agreement by February, each side submits a figure to an independent arbitrator. The arbitrator will pick a side to win, and cannot split the difference. Salaries depend largely on service time. Players cannot receive more than a 20 percent pay cut.

Contracts for arbitration-eligible players used to be non-guaranteed, meaning they could still be cut in spring training without teams obligated to pay the entire salary, but now those contracts are fully guaranteed. Of course, all of this could change under the next collective bargaining agreement, to be worked out in negotiations this offseason.

The Royals currently have seven players under contract for just under $90 million, and are expected to pick up the $2.5 million club option on Tony Gonsolin. The team will likely have around $30 million freed up from the payroll to spend this offseason, according to owner John Sherman.

The deadline to tender or non-tender players is typically near the end of November.

(1-1) Scottsdale Scorpions 5, (0-2) Glendale Desert Dogs 2

• Owen Carey, RF: 0-for-3, BB
• Isaiah Drake, CF: 1-for-4, R

Box Score

The Desert Dogs dropped to 0-2 on the season after falling to the Scorpions 5-2 on Sunday. After each Braves prospect pitched in the league opener, it was Owen Carey and Isaiah Drake who got the start for the Desert Dogs.

The Desert Dogs got on the scoreboard first in the second inning with Isaiah Drake singling with one out, stealing second, and coming into score on a Wyatt Sanford single. It was a nice return to the game for Isaiah who has been out since June 27th due to injury. Drake took a center cut 93 MPH fastball and hit it to the shortstop but beat out the throw for the single. In Drake’s second at bat he wasted no time, swinging at the first pitch, and grounded out to the first baseman. He would then get on base a second time, this time via a fielding error by the second baseman. His final at bat came in the eighth inning when he grounded out to third. Overall on the game Isaiah made strong swing decisions in his return to competitive baseball. He swung at two pitches at the top of the zone that resulted in outs.

Owen Carey’s night didn’t start as strong as Isaiah, as he popped up short with the bases loaded after chasing a changeup away. It came after he protected the inside of the plate on a slider inside. In his second at bat, Owen missed on a center cut fastball and popped up to short. Owen’s third at bat came with runners on first and second and he swung at the first pitch again, a sinker high and in but in the zone, and grounded out to short. His final at bat came in the bottom of the seventh where he drew a four pitch walk. Overall, Owen was aggressive in the zone and while he only reached base one time, the swing decisions were there.

Dang, it’s already been over six weeks since Zack Minasian blessed us with his take on Moneyball, where you only focus on certain stats that have a high rate of correlation and predictability?

“Something I was looking at the other day,” Minasian stated, “the ninth inning obviously has been a huge issue. Our bullpen ERA, when you take out the ninth inning — I think the last time I looked was a couple of days ago — sixth in baseball.”

So, let’s apply that to the whole team and see what we get.

When you take out…

Rafael Devers’ first month, he was the fourth-best hitter in MLB

His 158 wRC+ trails just PCA (171), Yordan Alvarez (169), and Pete Alonso (161). Wow! Great recovery from .207/.248/.289 to start the season. Way to make jagweeds like me eat manure. His 35 home runs over this same stretch are the third-most in the sport, too, behind only PCA and Alonso. He was every bit the middle of the order threat Buster Posey envisioned for a good Giants team he didn’t know how to build in 2026.

April, August, and September, the lineup was 7th in MLB

The team wRC+ of 108 tied with the Cubs and Rangers, and that trio trailed only the Nationals (116), Pirates (112), Dodgers (110), and Brewers (109). They were only 9th in home runs (105), but back to #2 for Isolated Power. Okay, just 13th in runs scored, but they play in a tough park! Unfortunately, the team was only 34-46 during this remarkable stretch of hitting. BUT!

Some of the 7 walk-off losses from 5/1-8/1, they’d be 37-42

Look, the Giants probably should’ve settled on somebody else for the 9th inning rather than Caleb Killian. Let’s extract him from a couple of those scenarios and let’s not use Matt Gage to flip around Ketel Marte. There are three games we can safely return to the Giants (2 blown saves and one blown tie).

Now, this flip doesn’t really do much in terms of what happens this season (the trade deadline, the injuries, the losing), but they’d have been 50-60 on the morning of August 2nd and that is a psychologically better place than the 47-64 they actually sported.

The 9th inning, seriously… the numbers really pop

Here is the ERA by inning breakdown:

1st inning: 4.61
2nd inning: 4.17
3rd inning: 4.33
4th inning: 4.33
5th inning: 4.83
6th inning: 3.67
7th inning: 4.00
8th inning: 3.72
9th inning: 5.74
Extras: 3.86

Now, looking at that, “get a closer” seems like a pretty obvious solution. I would argue that “trying an opener more often” would also help, but that 5th inning definitely screams, too, “have a quicker hook.” But all this really tells us is that major league lineups are difficult to navigate, even if the pitchers have the advantage these days. The Giants don’t help themselves by staffing up with remarkably similar arsenals. Lots of 94 mph sinker-slider dudes.

Randy Rodriguez, Camilo Doval, and Trent Harris figure to be good tweaks to the mix heading into next year, but some creativity in deployment is needed, too. That doesn’t mean running Keaton Winn out there for a third inning or for a third consecutive day, but it’s hard to look at this one big thing and argue that the Giants are extremely far away from figuring out the pitching staff. They don’t need to spend $20-$30 million on the bullpen. Now, I doubt they have the creativity needed to properly sort it out, but there you have it.

Logan Webb’s starts against the AL East, his ERA drops to 3.66

While he’s certainly The Perfect Giant, the ace of the staff, and a world-class starting pitcher, maybe he’s just not good against the American League East. Maybe his stuff and pitch arsenal is just batting practice for those hitters. He gave up 20 earned runs in 4 starts against the Yankees, Orioles, Blue Jays, and Red Sox. Take those out and his season is much more in line with the Logan Webb we’re used to — he still gets injured and still doesn’t pitch well enough to merit Cy Young consideration or not have concerns about his skills going into next season, but his season his 4.31 ERA doesn’t happen. (A reminder that he still wound up with a 3.1 fWAR despite just 160 IP).

Sal Stewart, Bryce Eldridge becomes a top 3 NL RoY candidate

He doesn’t win, of course. Not with Carson Benge (4.3 fWAR), JJ Wetherholt (4.6), and Nolan McLean in front (3.5). Eldridge’s 1.8 fWAR and 17 home runs are very nice for a 21-year old, but hardly spectacular when compared to the field. Benge has 20 and plays RF (occasionally CF) while Wetherholt has 17, t00, but plays shortstop. McLean is the Mets’ ace and was 15th in MLB in ERA (3.16). But this is very funny to imagine. Sal Stewart would have to be taken out by some sort of scandal to not win. He hit 32 homers and drove in 111.

All other positions, then Drew Gilbert is the 26th-most valuable player in the National League

That’s right. If we only looked at the outfielders, then Drew Gilbert would be a top 30 player with his 1.7 fWAR and triple slash of .238/.330/.394. He rates as a good defender, too, which means the Giants have run into some good luck with Harrison Bader’s extended injury time. Jonah Cox might not be able to hit, but an acceptable platoon of he and Drew Gilbert can handle center field for the Giants for a part of next season.

Remove Patrick Bailey, the Giants’ catcher corps is better than the Guardians’

Somehow, the Giants with better catcher defense than the Guardians. They traded away their Gold Glover and got better. Their 8.8 Defensive Runs Above Average was the Guardians’ lowest total of the last 5 seasons. The Giants’ 10.2 was their second-lowest after 2022 (2.8).

Jung Hoo Lee’s first 4 series and final 13, he’s a top 30 hitter

Like the rest of the offense, it took a bit for JHL to get going. He hit just .143/.224/.214 in 49 plate appearances against the Yankees, Padres, Mets, and Phillies. Those would be tough matchups for any hitter, but especially a guy who is still adjusting to the league and an MLB workload. From April 10 to August 5 he slashed .322/.353/.476 (131 wRC+) and just landed on the front page of hitters. The .338 BAbip and 2.0 fWAR should tell you that he’s contact and average-at-best defense, but you can’t take away the success he had in those 377 PA.

The relief pitching, the starting staff is playoff-caliber

Now, even though Zack Minasian laid out how parts of the Giants’ bullpen was above average, if you forget that the ‘pen exists at all (just 0.4 fWAR in value, after all), the starting staff, despite a 40-65 W-L record and just 9.4 fWAR in value (20th in MLB), stats out better than White Sox, Cubs, Padres, and Astros. Also better than the Diamondbacks, who just missed the postseason. Does this mean that an improved bullpen with a fringe-y rotation and 7-10% better than league average lineup could sneak into the Wild Card next postseason? Mr. Minasian would say yes.

Division play is removed, the Giants are 48-60 (.444)

No, that’s not good, but it’s much better than the .401 winning percentage. They went just 17-35 against the NL West, losing every season series against their division rivals, including the Rockies. But if you take those games out, it shows they are still pretty rotten. Is it a starting point for improvement? Probably not.

The 8 worst players are removed, the Giants are 4 wins better

If you knock out Harrison Bader, Osleivis Basabe, Will Brennan, Jerar Encarnacion, Matt Gage, Carson Seymour, Philip Abner, and Ryan Walker.

Now, to some degree, Walker (-0.5 fWAR) and Gage (-0.8) were unforeseeably bad, but there was also the persistence factor, where the team kept playing them despite their effort demonstrating that the opposite action should be taken. Had the Giants invested more in the bullpen during the offseason or simply had better coaching then maybe their contributions could’ve been avoided or minimized, but here we are, left to simply delete them. Jerar Encarnacion’s -0.5 fWAR in just 17 games and 35 plate appearances is truly impressive.

At the end of the day, 4 extra wins doesn’t amount to much, but if you couple that with the maybe 3 you could get from the rescued blown saves, those combined 7 gives the Giants a 72-90 record. Still not good, but that’s the type of season where you can easily wonder, “If they’d invested more in the bullpen, gotten more out of Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser to start the season, and avoided a lot of those injuries, then maybe they could’ve amounted to something more?”

Oh wow, now I see the power of Minasianball. It can get you to believe anything!

Good morning! Two close NLDS games took the stage last night with the Milwaukee Brewers taking a 2-0 series lead and the Atlanta Braves evening their series at 1-1.

The Chicago White Sox take on the Cleveland Guardians at 2 PM this afternoon for the first ALDS Game 2, and the New York Yankees follow against the Tampa Bay Rays at 5 PM.

MLB Postseason scores…

• An incredible two-strike, two-out walk-off single from Milwaukee Brewers left fielder Jackson Chourio powered the team to a 2-0 NLDS lead over the San Diego Padres.
• The Atlanta Braves utilized six different pitchers in their 3-2 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers to even their NLDS matchup at 1-1.

In Mariners news…

• The Mariners will have decisions to make on four top prospects in 2027 regarding the team’s Opening Day roster.
• Don’t forget to vote in our photo caption contest for funny Mariners photos from this past season.

Around the league…

• New York Yankees RHP Cam Schlittler has developed a curveball to complement his fastball-heavy approach, and he plans to showcase it during his start tonight in ALDS Game 2.
• The Tampa Bay Rays’ secret weapon is that their outfield currently boasts the highest Outs Above Average (OAA) in the Statcast era with +37.
• Veteran LHP Taylor Rodgers plans to pitch in 2027 for his age-36 season.
• Current playoff performance could be revealing the Chicago White Sox’s future rotation as two younger arms are making a name for themselves in October.
• Cleveland Guardians shortstop Brayan Rocchio has become one of the playoff’s most dangerous No. 9 hitters.

For the second time in the National League Division Series the San Diego Padres have seen one of their top relievers surrender the lead and the game which has them on the brink of elimination.

Mason Miller was called on for a six-out save and he was one out away from securing a 3-2 win in the second game of the series, but the San Diego closer walked the bases loaded and then allowed a game-winning single to Jackson Chourio, which gave Milwaukee a 4-3 win and a 2-0 lead in the five-game series. Miller was not sharp in his outing but he had done enough to get through the bottom of the eighth and into the bottom of the ninth. The right-hander got a groundout to open the final frame, but then allowed back-to-back walks to Christian Yelich and Sal Frelick. Miller got Andrew Vaughn to fly out and the Padres were one out away from heading home with the series tied, 1-1. Gary Sanchez was called on to pinch hit and he too drew a walk off Miller to load the bases.

Chourio got an opportunity to win the game with a hit and on the sixth pitch of the at-bat, a 101 mph four-seam fastball, he hit a single just beyond the dive of second baseman Jake Cronenworth, which rolled to Jackson Merrill in center field. Yelich scored easily from third and Merrill threw home, but Frelick was able to slide in ahead of the throw and tag to give Milwaukee a come-from-behind walk-off win.

It was a crushing defeat for San Diego who saw Adrian Morejon surrender what proved to be a game-winning solo home run to William Contreras in the seventh inning of Game 1. Ty France had what looked like a go-ahead home run clang off a stadium truss which resulted in the ball being caught by Chourio and the Padres suffered a one-run loss.

After the result on Friday night, it was imperative that San Diego got a win and split the two games in Milwaukee. In an effort to to do so, Michael King started on the mound for the Padres and he delivered a solid performance that saw him go five-plus innings, where he allowed a run on three hits with no walks and six strikeouts. Yuki Matsui pitched 1.1 innings and allowed a run and was followed by Bradgley Rodriguez who pitch 0.2 innings without allowing a run.

The San Diego offense was held to just five hits with France accounting for two of those. Merrill, Luis Campusano and Samad Taylor accounted for the other three. The Padres left eight runners on base and were 2-for-9 with runners in scoring position. Two of the three runs scored by San Diego were unearned thanks to three Milwaukee fielding errors.

The Padres have an off day today before returning to Petco Park for what is now an elimination game on Tuesday. San Diego will try to keep its season alive with the help of the Friar Faithful on Tuesday at 6:30 p.m.

Padres News:

• Nick Pivetta will take the ball for the Padres in must-win Game 3.

• Ty France was just what the Padres needed right when they needed it to save their 2026 season.

Baseball News:

• The Atlanta Braves topped the Los Angeles Dodgers to pull even in their series.

• The Chicago White Sox and the Cleveland Guardians will meet today in Game 2 of their series.

• The New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays will meet today in Game 2 of their series.

Because the Mets traded or waived nearly all of their pending free agents (Brooks Raley, David Peterson, A.J. Minter, Freddy Peralta, Clay Holmes, and Luis Robert Jr.), the only notable pending free agent is Frankie Montas, whose two-year deal blew up due to a mix of injury and ineffectiveness.

Beyond that, it's possible Bo Bichette will opt out of his contract. But it would be an upset, considering that Bichette would be leaving $84 million on the table ($42 million each of the next two seasons) after posting a 97 OPS+ in order to join a free agent market that could be impacted by an expected lockout.

That means if the Mets are going to move on from any key pieces of their offense this offseason, it will almost certainly mean doing so via trade.

With that as a backdrop, a possibility exists where New York could consider dealing one of its catchers -- something there were rumblings about ahead of the trade deadline.

Francisco Alvarez is still very young (set to enter his age-25 season in 2027) and is under team control via arbitration for three more years.

Luis Torrens signed a two-year, $11.5 million extension during the 2026 season and is under contract through 2028.

With Torrens in tow, could Alvarez be dangled this winter? Should he be?

WHY IT COULD MAKE SENSE TO TRADE ALVAREZ

Alvarez remains wildly inconsistent both at and behind the plate.

After posting a career-best .787 OPS over 76 games in 2025, Alvarez appeared to be reaching a new level this past season. But then things took a turn for the worse.

The backstop entered play on Aug. 11 with a .786 OPS, but faltered badly for the remainder of the season. Over his last 31 games, Alvarez slashed .176/.224/.296 (.520 OPS) and struck out 48 times as he had serious issues laying off pitches out of the strike zone. 

Overall, Alvarez fanned 129 times in 113 games in 2026. That isn't an outrageously high number for someone who often sells out for power, but it was the worst strikeout rate (30.7 percent) of his career.

Alvarez's chase rate was in the 35th percentile (via Baseball Savant), while he was near the bottom of the league in both whiff percentage and strikeout percentage.

His ability to block balls in the dirt was also near the very bottom of the sport, with Alvarez in the first percentile. 

Meanwhile, Alvarez was limited to 113 games due to a meniscus tear in his right knee. But he also returned from that injury well ahead of his estimated timeline -- something that has been a trademark of sorts for him since reaching the majors. 

WHY IT COULD MAKE SENSE TO KEEP ALVAREZ

While Alvarez can be a frustrating player at times, his potential remains tantalizing.

He is a player in his mid-20s with light-tower power, an incredibly strong work ethic, and a relaxed, effervescent personality.

And even though he has a tendency to swing and miss (and his strikeout rate bears watching) Alvarez seriously impacts the baseball. This past season, his barrel percentage (96th percentile), hard hit percentage (86th percentile), and average exit velocity (80th percentile) were all elite, with his bat speed (74th percentile) well above average.

Following the season, Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns referred to Alvarez's season as "probably up an down," but he praised the improvements he made defensively.

"The second half, Francisco behind the plate was really encouraging," Stearns explained. "I think his defense took a step forward behind the plate. His command of the pitching staff and game-calling took a step forward in the second half. Really a credit to him for not getting down and frustrated, and a credit to our coaching staff for getting him there."

The numbers bear out what Stearns noted, with Alvarez solidly above average in 2026 when it came to pitch-framing, pop time, and caught stealing above average. 

There's also the contract status factor, with Alvarez under team control through 2029.

Entering his second year of arbitration, Alvarez will get a solid raise from the $2.4 million he made in 2026. But he will still be an absolute bargain. 

VERDICT

Giving up on a player like Alvarez at this point would seem like a knee-jerk reaction to his end-of-season swoon.

Sure, the Mets have a very capable backup in Torrens, who is a terrific defensive catcher and would profile as a starter for a handful of other teams. But there's just no reason to shake things up. 

But with the Mets having a long list of needs to address this offseason, it would seem counterintuitive to open up a hole behind the plate.

It also needs to be noted how difficult it is to find catchers who produce like Alvarez has.

Despite his inconsistencies, Alvarez is an above average hitting catcher with the upside to develop into much more.

In a world where the Mets traded Alvarez, the backup to Torrens would likely be Hayden Senger -- meaning New York could roll with Senger (career 21 OPS+ in limited big league action) or find an Alvarez replacement in free agency or via trade.

Or they could just keep Alvarez, which should be a relatively easy call. 

The Dodgers and Braves shift their National League Division Series to Atlanta, tied at one game apiece. On the off day Monday, let’s look back a little more at the disappointing Game 2 loss by Los Angeles.

Blake Snell got only 11 outs on 90 pitches, and though he only allowed one run, the Dodgers used six relievers to cover the final 5 1/3 innings on Sunday. The Dodgers felt it was more rust than any lingering effects from the left groin discomfort that caused Snell to leave his start early on September 16 in Cincinnati.

From Sonja Chen at MLB.com:

“He just was fighting himself with his delivery all game,” Roberts said. “I think, in total, didn’t have fastball command, didn’t have slider command and the changeup wasn’t there. … It wasn’t the groin. He just wasn’t sharp tonight.”

All five runs the Dodgers scored in Game 1 came on home runs — two-run shots by Teoscar Hernández and Kyle Tucker, plus a solo shot by Mac Muncy. Then in Game 2 the Dodgers’ only two runs were on solo home runs from Freddie Freeman and Muncy. From Kevin Baxter of the Los Angeles Times:

“We’ve to find a way to score some runs without hitting a home run,” added Freddie Freeman, who homered Sunday and has three hits in the series. “That’s our biggest thing right now. So keep getting guys on base and get that big hit.”

Freeman said the Braves have done a good job keeping the Dodger hitters off-balance by emptying their bullpen, sending in a fresh pitcher every couple of innings.

“It’s tough because you’re facing a different arm every single time you’re going up there,” Freeman said. “It’s different angles, different velocities, different things. So stringing hits together is very hard.

More from Roberts on Braves reliever Didier Fuentes, who retired 11 straight batters before Muncy homered in the ninth to pull the Dodgers within a run , from Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register:

“I think it was just the fastball,” Roberts said of Fuentes, who threw two scoreless innings against the Dodgers during the Braves’ three-game sweep in Atlanta in August. “Tonight you could see the fastball, it was 99, 100. There was a lot of balls we were just missing as far as lazy fly balls, and we just couldn’t hit the ball flat against him. Then he was mixing in his split once in a while.

“Tip my hat to him, two days off (since pitching in the Wild Card Series) and doing what he did was pretty impressive.”

The 2026 version of Yennier Cano was one we thought we might not see again. After a brutal 2025 season in which Cano was optioned to Triple-A Norfolk in late June and ultimately had a 5.12 ERA in 65 games, it looked like Cano’s run as an effective reliever might be over. But a resurgent 2026 put him back on track and even earned him a contract extension.

When Cano allowed the losing run in relief to the Texas Rangers in the second series of the season, it felt like an omen that Cano would suffer a similar fate in 2026 as he did in 25. But the omen wasn’t reliable, as he went on to allow just one run on four hits over his next 18 games. In fact, over his first 21 games, Cano pitched to a 1.06 ERA and allowed just seven hits and three walks in 17 innings. In a bullpen that suffered from injuries and ineffectiveness, a resurgent Cano was a welcome sight.

At the end of May, Cano had two consecutive rough games, including on May 29th when he coughed up two runs to blow a game that the Orioles had once led 5-0. But after that blip, he went right back to what he’d been doing so far in the season. He was aided by a ground ball rate of 62%, back up where it was before his unfortunate 2025 (and among the best in baseball). He also allowed just two home runs, which allowed him to get out of many jams. He cut his walk rate by over 3%; at 6.4%, it was the lowest since his outstanding 2023 season.

Just ahead of the trade deadline, Cano was rocking a 2.15 ERA and had re-established himself as one of the core members of the bullpen. Just days before the Orioles traded his bullpen mate Tyler Wells, they went a different direction with Cano. On July 31st, the Orioles signed Cano to an extension that covered his final two years of arbitration and gave the Orioles a club option for the 2029 season. The move gave Cano stability while giving the Orioles the ability to keep him longer if they desired.

Cano’s numbers after the trade deadline look pretty bad, but that all came down to back-to-back appearances against the Rays in which he allowed three runs in each. In one, the three runs he allowed were the difference in a loss. In the other, the team held on to win despite his three runs allowed. Cam Sanders had to relieve him to get the final out.

Over the years, the Orioles have tried Cano in the ninth inning and it has never worked out. In his career, Cano has a 5.27 ERA in 54.2 innings pitched. He’s been much more effective in the seventh or eighth innings, where he’s logged the most innings. In 2026, Cano allowed seven runs in 13 games in the ninth inning. Which is a lot! But all seven scored in three games.

Bottom line, it’s worth keeping Cano out of the ninth inning if possible. That is fine, because he thrives as a setup man. He held opponents to a sub-.550 OPS in those innings this year. What would be best for the Orioles is to build the 2027 bullpen around the idea that Cano can be a late-inning guy. I expect that Ryan Helsley will exercise his player option for next year. His presence (and hopefully that of Félix Bautista) will keep Cano where he has thrived.

Relief pitchers are volatile, and it’s hard to know what to expect from Cano going forward. But this season was a reassuring step in the right direction after a tough 2025. The Orioles showed faith in him with the extension with a 2.90 ERA in 68 games. A repeat performance in 2027 would be a welcome sight as the Orioles try to get back into contention.

In some ways, it feels weird to re-litigate this after the Braves won in Game 2 without Chris Sale starting, but what happened feels so weird that I still can’t wrap my head around it.

We basically have two things in play:

First, Chris Sale has gotten extra rest ahead of many of his starts this season. He hasn’t started on the standard four days’ rest very much.

Second, Chris Sale appeared out of the bullpen to finish off the NL Wild Card Series win over the Phillies.

There was a logical world where that appearance functioned as a normal bullpen session, and Sale would’ve started on regular rest twice, once in NLDS Game 2, and once in NLDS Game 5, if needed. That seems like kind of a big deal, given that A) Sale is really good, B) Tyler Mahle would only appear once in the NLDS given the schedule, and C) the Braves don’t have any other starters.

But then, Sale didn’t start Game 2. A lot of discussion was focused on his bullpen appearance, and whether that was the culprit for knocking him back a game. Is that what happened? I have no idea. Or, would the Braves have knocked him back a game anyway for reasons that we aren’t privy to?

From reporting, it seems like it was a Braves decision and not a Chris Sale decision, which is not at all a surprise to me. There’s also some reporting that Sale wasn’t 100 percent heading into Sunday’s Game 2, but… it’s also unclear to me whether that would’ve been the case for him facing normal rest irrespective of the relief appearance.

Basically, I don’t expect anyone or anything to resolve this, but there seems to be this lack of a throughline between “Sale appeared out of the bullpen” and “Sale isn’t starting Game 2.” Maybe that throughline exists, or maybe Sale was going to get extra rest anyway.

The whole situation is just weird. In theory, the Braves’ odds of advancing are pretty dependent on how many Sale appearances they can cram into their remaining games. But, in practice, they could just out-slug the opposition, or even pull an NLDS Game 2, where they probably shouldn’t have won but did anyway.

(Game 2, Dodgers: .281 wOBA, .286 xwOBA | Game 2, Braves: .309 wOBA, .276 xwOBA)

Baseball brings both horror and odd silver linings from unexpected places. In just the last handful of days, Roman Anthony’s been handed both.

The first is the most obvious as the hand injury Anthony battled all year resurfaced and wrecked his first playoff appearance in merciless fashion. He now faces a long offseason of rehab and questions he won’t be able to answer for multiple months. In almost every way, the ending to his 2026 is cruel, harsh and final.

But leave it to the baseball gods to follow up that nastiness with an odd, but also rather ideal ray of hope. Enter Jackson Chourio, who yesterday came up in the bottom of the ninth inning of Game 2 of the NLDS with the bases juiced and Mason Miller on the mound. After a highly entertaining battle, Chourio came through on a 2-2 pitch with this game-winner that sent the Brewer crowd into bedlam:

So what does that have to do with Roman Anthony? Well, just one year ago, Chourio faced a very similar set of frustrating circumstances that largely mirror what Anthony is dealing with today.

The curious correlations started back in July of 2025, when Chourio suffered a right hamstring injury on this triple against the Cubs:

Chourio was initially listed as day-to-day (that should sound familiar), but ended up missing several weeks (that should also sound familiar).

Now so far, the similarities are very rudimentary. Anthony, like Chourio, is a 22-year-old hitting stud born in 2004. Anthony, like Chourio, is an outfielder who plays predominantly in left but can move to other slots when the team needs it. Anthony, like Chourio, signed an 8-year contract extension. And Anthony, like Chourio, suffered a frustrating injury that started as day-to-day and then became something much, much more.

But here’s where the similarities get crazy. Do you know what happened shortly after Chourio went on the IL last year? His team went on a 14-game winning streak, which is wildly similar to the 15-game winning streak the Red Sox went on this summer.

Do you know the date Chourio came back from his injury last year? August 30th. Do you know the date Anthony came back from his injury this year? August 30th. Both Anthony and Chourio then proceeded to play in exactly 25 regular season games upon returning, and then had their old injury resurface in Game 1 of the postseason, where they each had to leave early. Here’s the Brewers announcing Chourio’s departure 12 months ago.

OF Jackson Chourio left today's game with right hamstring tightness. He will be further evaluated after today's game.

— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) October 4, 2025

Now the difference is the 2025 Brewers went much deeper into the postseason than the 2026 Red Sox. So Chourio was actually in the lineup again in the NLCS, where he unfortunately had to leave another game with that reoccurring hamstring injury.

Jackson Chourio left the game after an awkward swing that appeared to potentially reaggravate his hamstring injury pic.twitter.com/DYBPouE1xM

— Talkin' Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) October 17, 2025

Either way, if you check the social media archives, you’ll find hundreds of comments from dimwitted imbeciles calling Chourio soft, made of glass, uncompetitive, and questioning if he had anything to play for after the Brewers gave him an an 8-year, $82 million contract extension. Basically, you’d be reading the same trash many people are saying about Roman Anthony right now, which is suddenly oddly comforting in an extremely bizarre way after what Chourio did on Sunday.

Now unfortunately, there’s no guarantee the story keeps following the same set of parallel tracks, and even if it does, we have to wait a year to get the payoff. For now, Roman Anthony, Red Sox fans, and potentially the entire sport face a long, grueling winter ahead, and maybe even a delayed start to next season. (Chourio by the way also had a delayed start to his next season, but that was for a fractured hand, which given everything else here is kind of nuts.)

But at the very least, it’s nice to know the pot of gold is sitting out there somewhere. Chourio’s heroics provide a beacon of light in a moment filled with uncertainty and darkness. So even though it’s a million miles away and there’s no guarantee we ever get there, it can serve as our north star for the time being. Who knows? Maybe a year from now we can circle back and note one more satisfying similarity in this silly string of surrealness.