PHOENIX, AZ - JUNE 30: Rafael Devers #16 of the San Francisco Giants celebrates in the dugout during the game between the San Francisco Giants and the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on Tuesday, June 30, 2026 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Brendon Baranov/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Good morning, baseball fans!
Another week of San Francisco Giants baseball comes to a close this weekend, so it’s time to make our picks for Player of the Week!
I’m picking Rafael Devers this week, specifically for his performance in last Saturday’s 5-0 win over the Atlanta Braves, in which he hit TWO home runs, knocking in four RBI in the process. As of the time this is being written, he also has a hitting streak going for seven of the last eight games. Not a bad week, in my opinion.
Who is your pick for Player of the Week?
What time do the Giants play today?
The Giants play game two of this three-game series against the Colorado Rockies tonight at 5:10 p.m. PT.
Saturday's schedule is packed with intriguing matchups from start to finish, and I've broken down my favorite MLB picks for every game on the board.
From heavyweight contenders to live underdogs, these predictions are based on current form, pitching matchups, and where I see the biggest edge heading into first pitch.
MLB moneyline picks for July 4
Matchup
Pick
Pirates vs Nationals
-117
Twins vs Yankees
-170
Tigers vs Rangers
-122
Blue Jays vs Mariners
-138
Orioles vs Reds
+122
Rays vs Astros
-104
White Sox vs Guardians
-127
Cardinals vs Cubs
-127
Mets vs Braves
-163
Giants vs Rockies
-133
Phillies vs Royals
-138
Red Sox vs Angels
-138
Marlins vs Athletics
+113
Brewers vs Diamondbacks
-144
Padres vs Dodgers
-233
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 7-4.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 4
Pirates vs Nationals: Pirates (-117)
Pirates win probability: 54%
Pittsburgh is simply the better team right now. The Pirates own one of the league's best offenses, ranking near the top in batting average, OPS, and hits, while Washington continues to struggle on the mound. Zack Littell's ERA sits north of five, and that's a tough matchup against a lineup that consistently puts the ball in play. I'll back the deeper, more complete club.
Twins vs Yankees: Yankees (-170)
Yankees win probability: 63%
This one starts with the pitching matchup. Minnesota has been one of baseball's worst teams at preventing runs, while the Yankees lead the majors in ERA and continue to get quality starts from Carlos Rodón. New York also brings the league's top home run offense, giving it another edge if this turns into a power game. The Yankees are the side.
Tigers vs Rangers: Rangers (-122)
Rangers win probability: 55%
Neither offense has lit the world on fire this season, so I'll trust the steadier starter and the home team. Cal Quantrill has quietly put together a strong year, while Jack Flaherty has struggled to find consistency. Texas has been slightly better offensively across the board, and in what projects as a close game, that's enough to get my vote.
Blue Jays vs Mariners: Mariners (-138)
Mariners win probability: 58%
Toronto has been better at putting the ball in play, but Seattle has the much stronger pitching staff, and that's the difference for me. The Mariners rank among the league leaders in ERA, WHIP, and runs allowed, while Luis Gilbert has been one of their most reliable arms. In a game where runs could be hard to come by, I'll side with the better staff.
Orioles vs Reds: Orioles (+122)
Orioles win probability: 45%
Neither bullpen has been particularly trustworthy, so I'll lean on the better lineup. Baltimore has been more consistent getting on base and creating scoring chances, while Brandon Young has given the Orioles a solid chance to win nearly every time out. Cincinnati has enough power to stay in it, but Baltimore is the more complete team.
Rays vs Astros: Rays (-104)
Rays win probability: 51%
Everything points toward Tampa Bay. The Rays have been the better team on both sides of the ball, ranking near the top of baseball in batting average, on-base percentage, ERA, and WHIP. Houston still has dangerous hitters, but its pitching staff has been far too inconsistent. With Drew Rasmussen on the mound, I'll gladly back Tampa.
White Sox vs Guardians: Guardians (-127)
Guardians win probability: 56%
The White Sox actually own the better offensive numbers, but I'm still backing Cleveland. Parker Messick has been one of the more effective starters in this matchup, and the Guardians continue to do a much better job limiting runs than Chicago. Pitching usually wins games like this, and Cleveland has the edge where it matters most.
Cardinals vs Cubs: Cubs (-127)
Cubs win probability: 56%
Chicago has the edge almost everywhere I look. The Cubs rank near the top of the league in runs scored, OPS, and on-base percentage, while the Cardinals have struggled to generate consistent offense. This isn't a matchup where I want to overthink things. Chicago has the better lineup and enough pitching to take care of business at Wrigley.
Mets vs Braves: Braves (-163)
Braves win probability: 62%
This is Atlanta's matchup to lose. The Braves own the edge offensively, defensively, and on the mound, and Chris Sale has been one of the best starters in baseball with a 2.10 ERA. Sean Manaea has struggled to find consistency, while the Mets rank near the bottom of the league in just about every major offensive category. I'll lay it with Atlanta.
Giants vs Rockies: Giants (-133)
Giants win probability: 57%
Colorado's offense has been solid, but the Rockies simply don't get enough outs. They rank dead last in both ERA and WHIP, and that's a dangerous combination against Robbie Ray, who's quietly put together another strong season. San Francisco doesn't need to light up the scoreboard here—they just need to take advantage of one of baseball's weakest pitching staffs.
Phillies vs Royals: Phillies (-138)
Phillies win probability: 58%
Kansas City has been competitive, but Philadelphia checks more boxes. The Phillies have the better lineup, more power, and a clear edge on the mound with Jesús Luzardo facing Michael Wacha. Kansas City's pitching staff has struggled to keep runs off the board all season, and that's not the recipe you want against a Phillies offense that can score in a hurry.
Red Sox vs Angels: Red Sox (-138)
Red Sox win probability: 58%
Boston isn't an offensive powerhouse, but this matchup sets up well. The Red Sox have been the better pitching team all season, and Sonny Gray has been outstanding with a sub-3.00 ERA. The Angels have a little more pop in the lineup, but they've consistently given those runs back with shaky pitching. I'll trust Boston's starter to be the difference.
Marlins vs Athletics: Marlins (+113)
Marlins win probability: 47%
These teams are fairly even offensively, but Miami gets the nod because of the pitching matchup. Sandy Alcantara has looked much closer to his old self this year, while the Athletics continue to rank near the bottom of the league in ERA and WHIP. The Marlins don't need a huge offensive night if Alcantara gives them another quality start.
Brewers vs Diamondbacks: Brewers (-144)
Brewers win probability: 59%
Milwaukee has been one of the more complete teams in baseball, and the numbers back it up. The Brewers rank near the top of the league in runs scored, ERA, WHIP, and on-base percentage, while Arizona has struggled on both sides of the ball. Brandon Woodruff also owns a big edge over Merrill Kelly. This is one of my stronger leans on the board.
Padres vs Dodgers: Dodgers (-233)
Dodgers win probability: 70%
There's no need to overcomplicate this one. The Dodgers lead baseball in runs, batting average, OPS, ERA, and WHIP, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets the ball against a Padres starter carrying an ERA over seven. San Diego simply hasn't hit enough to overcome that kind of mismatch. Los Angeles is the deserved favorite.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
There is a lot of talk about the 23-3 blasting of the Padres below, and plenty of talk about Dansby Swanson hitting out of his mind, so I won’t regurgitate all the names, numbers and legends involved.
I was just reflecting on this first half of the season. No matter where the Cubs finish this season, it will still be a season to remember. Two 10-game winning streaks in a 23-game span when everything was clicking. A 10-game losing streak when it all was falling apart. PCA doing things just a couple of guys have done before. Swanson matching a gathering of legends. While they were killing it, Seiya Suzuki was steadily pumping out key hits and improved defensive play. Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ and Michael Conforto are starting stir a bit at the plate. All of this during a 15-4 run in the Cubs’ last 19 games. And don’t forget the 10 walk-off wins they have already collected. All in all, the Cubs have positioned themselves for a run for the Central Division title.
Yes, we have to hold our breath with each start and pitching change as the staff keeps its head just above water. But there have been some remarkable games and performances we won’t forget.
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Steve Drumwright (North Side Baseball): Drew Pomeranz Returns To Cubs’ Bullpen. “The left-hander had been released by the Angels a couple weeks ago, but finds a second life in 2026 with Chicago, where he pitched last season.”
Tyler Courtney (LastWordOnSports): Who Can Fill the Gap in the Cubs Right Field? “The combination of (Seiya Suzuki and Matt Shaw) left the team feeling confident, with solid depth across the rest of the organization. However, that has quickly taken a turn for the worse due to injuries. Now, the team is desperate to find a solution as it looks to build on its recent hot streak.”
Food For Thought:
Big ED Sullivan comes from Brooklyn, New York. He grew not far from the Gowanus canal, but god knows he never fished there! But, he spent hours and hours shaprening his talents on guitar and harmonica while watching his friends falling like flies, victims of drugs and gang wars.
“Yes,” says ED, “Music for me was an escape, but at the same time, it was really what saved me from the street and from a choice that could have ruined my life.” It was this escape, like the influence of some of the great names of the blues and rockabilly — such as Slim Harpo, Albert Collins, Danny Gatton and Link Wray — which inspired Ed’s style. All these musicians hold a special place in Ed’s list of musical gods. No one plays the guitar like Ed. He has a way of transforming a melody of traditional blues or rockabilly by adding all his personality to it. His slide guitar playing is perfectly wild.
Please be reminded that Cub Tracks and Bleed Cubbie Blue do not necessarily endorse the content of articles, podcasts, or videos that are linked to in this series.
Nov 9, 2025; Mesa, AZ, USA; Colorado Rockies infielder Charlie Condon during the Arizona Fall League Fall Stars Game at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Charlie Condon (No. 1 PuRP) will tell you the adjustment was not dramatic.
In Eli Whitney’s Weekly Pebble Report, the Rockies’ top prospect described his midseason surge in fairly modest terms. There were some tweaks with his “load and gather,” a growing comfort in his swing, and a better ability to stay within himself instead of trying to force damage early in counts.
Condon’s June was not subtle: The power finally arrived. The question is whether the surge is being supported by something more than a hot stretch.
Across 22 games in June, Condon slugged .778 with nine home runs and 30 RBI. That surge pushed his full-season line to .296/.419/.612 with a 1.033 OPS, 20 home runs and a 145 wRC+. For a player selected third overall in 2024 largely because of his offensive ceiling, a surge of that magnitude carries weight. This is the production the Rockies were waiting to see.
The production is the headline. The process underneath it is what makes the breakout worth taking seriously.
The approach was already there
Condon’s underlying data does not simply show a hitter who got hot. It shows a hitter whose selectivity, damage and swing-and-miss are beginning to interact in a more encouraging way. Even so, there is still risk in his profile, and it does not make his eventual transition to Denver automatic. It does, however, give real analytical context to what Condon told Eli: He is trusting the swing more, getting deeper into counts with more confidence, and doing a better job punishing mistakes.
The plate discipline is the easiest place to start. Condon has walked at a 14.6% clip while chasing only 18.0% of pitches outside the zone. That is the foundation of the profile. He is not expanding the zone to get to his power, and for a hitter with Condon’s raw strength, that matters.
The key is that this was not a brand-new approach. Condon was already patient earlier in the season. What changed is that the patience has started producing damage.
Making patience more dangerous
The rolling data shows the shape of the adjustment: Condon’s expected slugging and hard-hit rate have climbed while his swing rate has drifted down and his whiff rate has backed off its rougher midseason peak. He is not chasing power by simply swinging more. He is doing more damage while becoming more selective.
Condon’s quote about chase is useful because discipline is not just refusal. It is confidence. His best stretch has not come from abandoning patience. It has come from making patience more dangerous.
The damage matters because the approach still gives pitchers a path. Condon’s overall swing rate sits at 39.7%. His zone-swing rate is 62.8%. His zone-contact rate is 79.9%, and his whiff rate is 28.4%. If the damage is not there, pitchers have every reason to attack him in the zone, steal early-count strikes and trust the swing-and-miss to show up before he hurts them.
That is what makes the recent stretch important. Condon controls the zone well, but he also gives pitchers a reason to believe they can enter it. The more he punishes mistakes when they do, the harder it becomes for that plan to survive.
Patience comes with risk. A low chase rate is a strength, but MLB pitchers do not have to live outside the zone if a hitter is willing to take strikes. Against Condon, the plan may be less about getting him to chase immediately and more about stealing early-count strikes, getting ahead and using spin to finish the at-bat.
The secondary-pitch question is more complicated
Condon is already punishing fastballs. Against four-seamers, he has produced a .417 xwOBA, .421 xSLG, +11.1 Run Value (RV) and a 61.1% hard-hit rate. That matters because MLB pitchers are unlikely to build their plan around simply challenging him with fastballs in the zone. The next test is how well they can use breaking balls and offspeed pitches to keep him from getting to that damage.
The slider results show why the question is not as simple as “Can he hit spin?” Condon has a .628 xSLG and +7.3 RV against sliders, so the damage is real. But the 38.9% whiff rate means pitchers still have a reason to keep testing him there.
The margins are thinner elsewhere. Against sweepers and changeups, Condon has still produced positive run value, but the expected slugging is more modest — .370 xSLG against sweepers and .386 xSLG against changeups — while the whiff rates sit above 37% on both pitch types.
Fastballs are getting punished. Sliders are dangerous both ways. Sweepers and changeups look more like the pressure points MLB pitchers may try to exploit. Run value says the overall results have worked in Triple-A. Expected slugging and whiff rate show where those results could be tested by better execution.
Pitch Type
Usage
RV
xwOBA
xSLG
xBA
Whiff %
Hard Hit %
Swing %
4-Seam
28.20 %
11.1
.417
.421
.271
22.45 %
61.11 %
38.3 %
Slider
23.80 %
7.3
.428
.628
.261
38.93 %
41.46 %
40.4 %
Sinker
12.80 %
-0.3
.382
.484
.310
12.16 %
48.72 %
42.5 %
Change
11.10 %
4.1
.333
.386
.245
37.14 %
29.17 %
46.4 %
Cutter
7.60 %
4.4
.301
.301
.195
15.79 %
52.38 %
54.8 %
Sweeper
7.30 %
1.9
.287
.370
.187
39.29 %
50 %
28 %
Curve
5.40 %
-1.1
.168
.166
.124
33.33 %
0 %
24.3 %
Splitter
2.10 %
-0.5
.169
.087
.058
50 %
50 %
35.7 %
This is where the pitch-type table reaches its limit. It can show the pressure points, but it cannot show the progression of the at-bat. For Condon, that progression is the point: the same patient foundation that was producing walks and playable contact in April is now creating chances to do damage.
The progress shows up pitch by pitch
In April against Sacramento, Condon was already showing the approach. He was working counts, taking walks and forcing pitchers to execute, but the contact was not consistently changing the way pitchers had to attack him. Against Carson Whisenhunt, he walked in a six-pitch plate appearance, later doubled on an 83.3 mph changeup in a seven-pitch at-bat, and added a 101.0 mph sacrifice fly in a five-pitch plate appearance. The approach was competitive, but the double was a 94.6 mph ground ball at a 5-degree launch angle — useful contact, not the kind of impact that forces pitchers to rethink the plan.
That is the important baseline. Condon was not trying to become patient. He already was patient. The question was whether that approach would start producing enough damage.
The July 1 matchup against Marco Gonzales showed the later version.
Condon’s first at-bat against Gonzales was a six-pitch triple. Gonzales started him with a cutter for a called strike, then mixed a cutter, another cutter, a four-seam fastball and a changeup. Condon stayed in the at-bat, ran the count full and drove an 86.8 mph cutter for a 390-foot triple at 95.2 mph off the bat.
Then came the ambush. In the third inning, Gonzales opened the next plate appearance with an 80.9 mph changeup, and Condon hit it 103.5 mph at a 31-degree launch angle for a 397-foot home run. That at-bat lasted one pitch.
His third look at Gonzales showed the fuller version of the progress. In a six-pitch plate appearance, Gonzales changed speeds and shapes: cutter, fastball, curveball, cutter, changeup, fastball. Condon fouled off the first cutter, took a fastball off the plate, took a curveball below the zone, fouled off another cutter, then took a changeup to run the count full.
The sixth pitch was a 90.1 mph four-seam fastball. Condon hit it 101.8 mph at a 26-degree launch angle for a 385-foot home run.
That is the difference. The April version was taking pitches and working counts. The July version is doing that while turning the eventual mistake into damage.
The July 2 double against Ryan Lobus added a breaking-ball example without needing as much space. In a six-pitch plate appearance, Condon took two sweepers for balls, watched two more sweepers land for called strikes, took a fastball to run the count full, then drove an 81.2 mph sweeper 108.9 mph for a double. It was a deep count, it was spin, and it was loud contact.
Condon can miss breaking balls and off-speed, but he can also hurt them. The next test is whether more advanced pitchers can separate his selectivity from his damage often enough to keep him from changing the game.
The question has changed
At this point, the more interesting question is whether Triple-A can keep sharpening the test. Condon is walking, not chasing, doing damage, adjusting deeper in counts and forcing pitchers to pay when they come into the zone. The remaining question is whether the balance of patience and impact holds against big-league spin, better sequencing and pitchers with better command of how to attack him.
That does not make the call-up decision simple, and it does not guarantee an easy first month in Denver. But Condon has moved beyond simple prospect hype. The power everyone was waiting on has arrived, and it is showing up without him abandoning the strike-zone control that made the profile so interesting in the first place.
Condon looks ready for the next test, and increasingly, that test looks like one that may have to come at the big-league level.
Whether that happens next week, next month or later in the season is up to the Rockies.
The Albuquerque Isotopes (44-41) used early offense, late insurance, and a strong start from Keegan Thompson to handle the Round Rock Express (37-48) in an 8-2 win on Friday night.
Brenton Doyle got Albuquerque moving with a one-out solo homer to left-center field in the first inning. Doyle’s first AAA home run of the year traveled 356 feet with a 96.9 mph exit velocity. He finished 2-for-5 with the homer, his second double, and two RBI.
The Isotopes added on in the second inning with three straight two-out RBI doubles. Adael Amador drove in Drew Avans with his 10th double of the season, Doyle followed with a double to score Amador, and Sterlin Thompson added his seventh double to bring in Doyle. Amador went 2-for-4 with a walk, an RBI, and a run scored, pushing his OPS to .768.
Albuquerque put the game away late. Jordan Beck opened the eighth with his second home run of the season, sending an outer-edge changeup to left-center for a 355-foot homer. Beck later added an RBI single in the ninth and finished 2-for-5 with two RBI, bringing his season OPS to .879. Bryant Betancourt added an RBI single in the eighth and finished 2-for-5 with his first AAA stolen base.
Keegan Thompson worked five scoreless innings, allowing three hits and three walks with five strikeouts. He improved to 2-4 and lowered his ERA to 4.04. His biggest outs came with runners on, including strikeouts to end both the third and fourth innings. Domingo Acevedo covered the final four innings, allowing two unearned runs on two hits with three strikeouts to earn his first save.
The Isotopes finished with 15 hits, went 6-for-13 with runners in scoring position, and produced five two-out RBI. Round Rock managed five hits and went 1-for-6 with runners in scoring position.
The Somerset Patriots (42-37) held off a late push from the Hartford Yard Goats (42-36) in a 5-3 win on Friday night.
Hartford had the baserunners to make this one look different, but missed chances shaped the loss. The Yard Goats finished with eight hits, drew eight walks, and went just 2-for-13 with runners in scoring position while leaving 11 on base.
Jack O’Dowd stayed hot in his first week at Double-A. O’Dowd started at catcher and went 2-for-4 with a walk, his second double, and an RBI. Through his first four Double-A games, he is hitting .375/.444/.875 with a 1.319 OPS.
Roc Riggio also reached three times, going 2-for-4 with a walk and his 19th double of the season. Riggio now has an .837 OPS. Dyan Jorge added an RBI single and a walk, while Andy Perez drove in a run during Hartford’s ninth-inning push.
The pitching split was sharp. Stu Flesland III opened with two scoreless innings, and Michael Prosecky followed with a clean third, but Fisher Jameson allowed all of Somerset’s damage after taking over following a rain delay. Jameson gave up five runs on five hits, three walks, and two home runs over four innings, raising his ERA to 9.26.
Hartford got one run back in the fifth, then made Somerset work in the ninth. Mike Antico singled, Jorge walked, and Perez singled home Antico to cut the deficit to 5-2. O’Dowd then brought in Jorge on a force-out, but Aidan Longwell lined out to end the game with the tying run still at the plate.
The Spokane Indians (38-41) scored early and got enough pitching to beat the Hillsboro Hops (38-41) in a 4-2 win on Friday night.
Spokane built its lead in the first two innings. Tommy Hopfe opened the game with a single, Roynier Hernandez walked, and Ethan Hedges drove in Hopfe with a single to left. Jacob Humphrey followed with his 12th double of the season, bringing in Hernandez and Hedges to give the Indians a 3-0 lead.
Hopfe helped set the table again in the second with his 15th double of the season, and Hedges brought him home with another RBI single. Hopfe finished 2-for-5 with two runs scored and carries an .846 OPS on the season. Hernandez reached four times, going 1-for-2 with three walks and a run scored, raising his season OPS to .850.
Hedges and Humphrey drove the offense. Hedges went 2-for-5 with two RBI, giving him 42 on the season, while Humphrey went 1-for-3 with a walk, his 12th double, and two RBI to push his season total to 28. Spokane finished 3-for-8 with runners in scoring position.
Bryson Hammer gave the Indians a strong start, allowing one run on two hits and two walks over five innings. He struck out seven, improved to 4-6, and now owns a 5.26 ERA. Hunter Mann followed with three innings of one-run ball, allowing three hits and striking out one. Nathan Blasick handled the ninth with two strikeouts to earn his sixth save and lower his ERA to 3.20.
The Fresno Grizzlies (43-36) kept answering and eventually walked off the Ontario Tower Buzzers (41-38) in a 10-9 win on Friday night.
Fresno trailed 2-0 after the top of the first, but Roldy Brito and Wilder Dalis helped erase it right away. Brito singled in the bottom half, and Dalis drove him in with his 11th double of the season. Jesus Freitez followed with an RBI single to tie the game at 2-2.
Brito was in the middle of everything for Fresno. He went 4-for-4 with a walk, a run scored, and two doubles, pushing his season line to a .322 average and .872 OPS. Dalis also had a big night, going 2-for-5 with his 11th double, his sixth home run, two RBI, and two runs scored. He now has an .832 OPS.
The Grizzlies kept climbing back after Ontario built leads of 6-3, 8-5, and 9-6. Cameron Nelson hit his fourth home run of the season in the fourth, a two-run shot that cut the deficit to 6-5. Dalis homered in the fifth, and Jeremy Ciriaco added his second home run in the sixth to make it 9-7.
Fresno tied it in the seventh without needing a big swing. Freitez singled, Ashly Andujar was hit by a pitch, Ciriaco walked, and Yeiker Reyes brought in Freitez with a sacrifice fly.
The ninth inning was messy, but Fresno took advantage. Reyes singled, Nelson walked, and Brito walked to load the bases with two outs. Luis Mendez was then hit by a pitch, forcing in Reyes for the walk-off run.
Fresno rarely had a clean inning on the mound, but Dylan Crooks struck out one in a perfect ninth inning to earn the win.
AP looks at Hunter Goodman’s season through both sides of the ABS system. Goodman’s power has already made him one of the Rockies’ clearest All-Star cases, but his value has extended behind the plate, too, where his strike-zone feel has translated into one of the better challenge records among catchers. It is another reminder that with Goodman it is not just about the home runs — it is also about how much more complete his profile has become.
With the draft just a week away, MLB.com’s latest mock has the Rockies going back to the college position-player pool at No. 10, targeting an outfielder whose profile is built more around the hit tool and plate discipline than pure power. There is still some pitching intrigue here, though, with at least one college arm mentioned as a possible fit if Colorado decides to chase upside on the mound instead.
Kevin Henry looks at why TJ Rumfield’s rookie season still has not fully broken through nationally despite the production. Rumfield has now won back-to-back NL Rookie of the Month honors, and the underlying case is strong: he leads qualified NL rookies in several major offensive categories, including average, on-base percentage, slugging, OPS, and hits. The question is whether voters will look past the Rockies’ record, the Coors Field factor, and the lower defensive spotlight that comes with playing first base.
Feb 13, 2026; Port St. Lucie, FL, USA; New York Mets left fielder MJ Melendez (1) takes batting practice during spring training at Clover Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
MJ Melendez broke the 6-6 tie in the bottom of the seventh with a go-ahead two-run home run that led Syracuse to victory. Jorge Polance reached base once in his rehab appearance.
The Rumble Ponies scored four runs, but Nick Lucky was the driver, driving in three-runs and stealing a base. R.J. Gordon was good, going five and striking out two, allowing no runs.
The Cyclones hit three home runs in their loss to the Keys. The Mets were in the hole early, as Dakota Hawkins gave up six runs (five earned) in two innings pitched.
The Tarpons scored in the second off of Christian Rodriguez, who allowed seven hits across his three and two-thirds innings of work. From there, the St. Lucie bullpen was phenomenal, allowing no baserunners in five and a third innings, striking out nine. Unfortunately, the Mets couldn’t push a run across on their five hits.
Boston, MA - June 28: Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Sonny Gray tips his cap to the fans after he was taken out of the game in the seventh inning. The Boston Red Sox played the New York Yankees at Fenway Park on June 28, 2026. (Photo by Matthew J. Lee/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) | Boston Globe via Getty Images
For the next few weeks we’ll be doing some theorizing on optimal returns at the trade deadline as the Red Sox look to do another tear down amidst a hopeless season. This week, it’s Sonny Gray—and unlike last week’s Chapman conversation, this one comes with a wrinkle.
Week two of Sock Drawer. Last week it was Aroldis Chapman and a relatively clean simulation—the Sox have the asset, contenders want it, Breslow sets the price. This week is messier, because Sonny Gray has a no-trade clause, and that changes the whole conversation.
Gray has been one of the few things working on this roster in 2026. This season, he’s commanding a 2.69 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 75 strikeouts across 83.2 innings. He’s somehow 9-1. On a team that’s going nowhere and gives NO support for its starting pitching. As a 36-year-old who wasn’t supposed to be anyone’s ace, that’s not a just real asset. That’s a legitimate AL Cy Young contender, and the market is starting to understand what it’s looking at. The Braves, Cubs, Brewers, Giants, and others are already circling. Jon Heyman has Atlanta’s name attached.
The complication is clearly the NTC. Gray restructured his contract when he came to Boston—the Cardinals are covering $20 million of his $31 million salary, meaning an acquiring team only owes the prorated remainder plus a $10 million buyout on a mutual option. That’s manageable. But Gray gets final say on the destination, and he’s been measured about it: “If someone came to me from the Red Sox and made a decision that that’s the direction this team was going to go, I would be open for a conversation.”
Open for a conversation is not a yes. The Sox can’t just shop him to the highest bidder. The field narrows to places Gray would actually approve. Frankly, I don’t blame Gray for being measured about it. I would think even for his age and long career, staying settled in one city might be more important to him and his family than title chasing.
The whole situation is actually fine if you’re looking at things from Craig Breslow’s perspective. The teams that make sense for Gray make sense for the Sox, and the NTC creates a different kind of leverage. The places Gray would approve are serious contenders with real farm systems (for the most oart), and serious contenders with real farm systems don’t get to lowball you. If you’re smart.
One more complication: Connelly Early just went to the IL with an elbow injury. On the surface, you might think that makes Breslow more reluctant to move Gray, now that the rotation has lost two legitimate arms and he’s even more exposed. That’s not wrong. But on a team that’s going nowhere, “we need pitching depth” is not a reason to hold a guy you can turn into a top prospect or a real bullpen piece. Early going down hurts the on-field product. It doesn’t change the deadline ethos.
There’s also a decision Breslow has to make before he picks up the phone: how much salary relief is Boston putting in? The answer to that question changes the return completely.
If Boston eats a chunk of salary: the acquiring team’s cost drops, Gray becomes easier to move, and the Sox can push for a real prospect from the top of the system.
If the full contract goes with him: the team absorbs more cost, and what comes back is an MLB piece, a bullpen arm who can contribute now rather than a name on a list, but isn’t the most valuable in general.
Neither is wrong, it just depends on what Breslow thinks this team needs more. I’ll give you both just to show you what that means.
Atlanta is the most obvious match here and maybe the most likely destination if this deal gets done. Their rotation is beaten up more than a room in Magic City—Spencer Strider, Joey Wentz, Spencer Schwellenbach, AJ Smith-Shawver are all missing some time—and the Braves are still contending, which means they need a real arm, not a depth add. Gray is exactly that.
The NTC nearly solves itself. Gray is from Nashville. Atlanta is close, the organization is stable, and the Braves have been in October almost every year for half a decade. If I were him, I would approve this one. Breslow knows that and should price accordingly. The fact that Gray probably says yes to Atlanta when he might say no to someone else is leverage, not a concession.
Murphy is the arm I want here. He dominated High-A in limited action before the injury, has one of the higher ceilings left in an admittedly thin Braves system, and fits the pitching-for-pitching logic cleanly. If Atlanta pushes back on Murphy, Southisene is the alternative, different profile, still a legitimate top-five piece from a system that isn’t deep enough to be holding onto anyone. The Braves farm being ranked near the bottom of the league is exactly why the salary relief matters here. Boston is making the deal easier in exchange for a sweetened pot.
If the full salary goes with Gray, Dodd gives you a back-end MLB starter with some upside who could slot into a Boston rotation that always needs arms. Lee is the more established bullpen piece, lefty, track record, knows how to get hitters out. Either is a legitimate MLB contributor, not a lottery ticket. In a year where the Sox bullpen has been a problem, adding a proven arm to that mix has real value even if it doesn’t change the rebuild timeline.
Full salary — Phil Maton (RH) or Porter Hodge (RHP)
Chicago’s rotation is a mess and they know it. Two Tommy Johns, two hammies, a neck, a back, you may as well walk into the recovery ward of any ER Northside and see the venerable Cubs starting rotation. They had to trade for David Peterson just to stay afloat right now! If the Cubs are going to make a run, they need another reliable starter, and Gray is the definition of a reliable, veteran presence, experience in big games, innings-eater who won’t need to be pulled in the fourth. The fit is clean.
The double-package angle is worth noting: there’s real reporting floating around that Chicago could go after both Gray and Chapman in the same deal. Whether that’s actually on the table or just a fun idea that got written up is unclear—I get it with Chapman winning the WS in 2016 with the Cubbies—but if Breslow can work that angle, he should. Two complementary needs from one buyer is a GM’s dream negotiation.
Wiggins is the one I want from Chicago. He just cracked the top 100 and the scouting reports have gotten genuinely interesting, the stuff was always there, now the polish is catching up. The Cubs system has thinned out from where it was a couple of years ago (Shaw and Horton graduated, Caissie got traded), which makes Wiggins the clear headliner of what’s left. Pitcher for pitcher makes the most sense for both sides.
Full salary to Chicago means pushing for Maton or Hodge. Maton is a power arm with swing-and-miss stuff who would fit well in the back of a Boston bullpen that needs exactly that. Hodge is the younger option with more upside but less certainty. Either gives the Sox a real MLB reliever back, which is a reasonable ask when you’re handing over a $21 million arm and not asking for a cent back.
Eats salary — Jett Williams (SS/CF)/Bishop Letson (RHP)
Full salary — Aaron Ashby (LHP)/Abner Uribe (RHP)
Milwaukee is the most interesting team in this conversation that isn’t getting talked about enough. The Brewers have the best farm system in baseball, by most accounts the best in years, and they’re contending, which means they need what Gray provides. They also develop pitching better than almost anyone in the sport. A guy like Gray going to Milwaukee under their coaching staff could buy him another productive season-plus.
The Brewers tend not to overpay at the deadline—it’s an organizational strength of theirs, which means Breslow has to go in knowing his floor. But their system is deep enough that they can give up a real piece without gutting themselves, and that’s exactly the kind of trade partner you want.
Williams is the intriguing prospect here. Traded to the Brewers from the Mets in the Freddy Peralta trade, his ranking has slipped slightly but the tools are still there and Milwaukee’s development track record means the ceiling hasn’t closed. Letson is more of a pure pitcher profile with a legitimate shot to move fast. Either way, the Brewers have the depth to make this hurt a little, and when the top farm system in baseball is making a move hurt, that’s a good outcome for the Sox. I’ll also say this: I really want Shane Drohan back. Boston drafted him, developed him, and then let him walk. If there’s any version of this deal where Drohan is part of the return, I’m listening.
Ashby is the name on the full-salary track. Lefty, swing-and-miss, already knows how to pitch at the big league level. He’s exactly what the Sox bullpen needs and the Brewers have the depth to absorb losing him. Uribe is the higher-upside option: the stuff plays in high leverage and if he figures out the command piece, he becomes someone. Either way, Milwaukee has the bullpen to send a real piece back without hurting their October chances.
Eats salary — Hagen Smith (LHP)/Tanner McDougal (LHP)
Full salary — Sean Newcomb (LHP)/Grant Taylor (RHP)
Here’s the one nobody is writing about. The White Sox have been one of baseball’s most historically futile franchises for the better part of a decade. Multiple 100-loss seasons. A rebuild that took forever and delivered mixed results. Guaranteed Rate Field on a Tuesday. None of that sounds like a Gray destination.
Except they’re leading the AL Central right now.
That changes everything about this conversation. Chicago isn’t calling Boston because they’re stockpiling assets for three years from now. They’re calling because they have a pennant race on their hands for the first time in years, a market that has been starved for relevance, and a front office that knows exactly how rare and fragile first place feels when you’ve spent most of your recent history losing 95 games. A team in that position does not let a shot at Sonny Gray pass them by.
The NTC is the real question here. Gray has to approve the destination, and Chicago’s recent history is not exactly a draw. But if the White Sox are still in first at the deadline, that’s a different conversation than it would have been in April. Pitchers want to pitch in October. Gray says he’s open to a conversation. A first-place team with a real need is the kind of conversation that moves the needle on a waiver.
The farm depth is real too. All those top draft picks from the losing years are still in the system. Smith is already in the top 100 and has the profile of a back-of-rotation starter with real MLB durability. McDougal is the longer-range bet, younger, rawer, higher ceiling if the stuff develops. The Sox adding another lefty arm to the system is never a bad thing given how they develop pitching.
The full-salary version of this deal is the one I find most interesting. Boston could have a funny reunion on their hands. Newcomb returning to the organization would be interesting, and he’s been more effective in this stint than his previous run in Boston that the Sox would have something to work with. Taylor is the option if Newcomb isn’t available, left-handed, serviceable, fills a need in a pen that has needed help all year.
San Francisco is the most interesting team on this list and probably the most overlooked one. Tony Vitello took over as manager this past offseason, coming straight from Tennessee where he built one of the better college programs in the country. He doesn’t have the personal history with Gray that Bob Melvin did, so the NTC approval is less certain here than it might have been a year ago. Oracle Park is a great place to pitch, San Francisco is a good market, and the Giants are a respectable organization—Gray could do a lot worse. But this one is a harder sell than Atlanta, and Breslow should know that going in.
What makes San Francisco interesting is Gavin Kilen.
Kilen was a Red Sox draft pick. Boston selected him, he went back to college (Louisville first, then transferred to Tennessee), and now he’s a top-five piece in the Giants system. The Tennessee connection is the thread that makes this section worth writing: Vitello coached Kilen with the Vols before taking the Giants job. So you have a manager who knows this prospect intimately, which cuts both ways — Vitello may be the last person who wants to trade him, or he may be exactly the person who knows what Kilen is and isn’t at the MLB level. Either way, Breslow has leverage in asking, because the Giants need rotation help and the Sox hold the asset. He’s the name I want from San Francisco if Boston is putting money in. Jacob Bresnahan and Blade Tidwell are also in the top-five conversation if Kilen isn’t available, Bresnahan is a sneaky-good lefty who keeps getting better, Tidwell has the stuff to move fast.
Brubaker is the headliner on the full-salary track, a legitimate MLB arm who gives the Sox a real contributor and not a project. Hentges is the alternative, left-handed and serviceable, fills a pen need. Carson Whisenhunt is worth a mention too: still a top-30 Giants prospect but he’s been down in Triple-A and could be framed as MLB-ready depth, which makes him an interesting piece that straddles both tracks.
With the tsuris Buster Posey has put himself through this season alone in the Bay Area, I could see Breslow actually end up on the right side of a deal between these former players here. We’ll give Devers to Posey, even with the drama there of late.
Atlanta is the deal that should get done and probably will. Gray approves it, the Braves need it, and the NTC leverage means Breslow can squeeze them. Cubs are the second call because of the double-package angle and the Wiggins possibility. Brewers are the sleeper with the best farm in the sport.
The Giants are the wildcard. The NTC approval is probably the easiest of any team on this list, and the Kilen homecoming angle is the best narrative piece in this whole conversation. The White Sox are the sleeper. Nobody is putting Chicago in this conversation right now, and that’s exactly why Breslow should. A franchise that’s been irrelevant for years just found itself in first place and they know the window could slam shut by September. That’s panic-buy energy, and panic-buy energy gets you Smith or McDougal. Make all five teams think the other four are ahead of them. Then close the right deal.
The salary decision is the only open question. If Breslow is building toward the deadline as a genuine rebuild, eat the salary, get the prospect, add to the system. If he thinks this team has a window to compete sooner than the standings suggest, take the MLB piece and plug the bullpen. Both are defensible. Just know what you’re doing before you pick up the phone.
Fans greeted him with a vinyl banner reading "Marsh To The Polls," with several supporters sporting beards to match his own.
It marked the official start of the Phillies' final campaign push to send Marsh to the Midsummer Classic at The Bank on July 14, something he told USA TODAY Sports before the game he wasn’t letting himself think too much about.
He opened the year hitting .295 in April — a far cry from the .095 he posted through his first 17 games last season — and strung together a 13‑game hit streak from April 28 to May 12. He followed his strong month of April with a .333 average in May. That dipped only slightly to .315 in June.
Factor in that he’s tracking toward his first All‑Star nod, and the arc becomes even more impressive.
“It’s been a different season for sure, having to adjust with the body and having to adjust with playing every day,” Marsh said. “I wouldn’t trade it for anything in the world. Just enjoying the ride.”
To reach this point — where he’s sitting among MLB’s top 10 leaders in batting average — Marsh has ridden out his share of turbulence. Dealt from the Los Angeles Angels at the 2022 trade deadline for top catching prospect Logan O’Hoppe, Marsh was seen as an everyday outfielder for both the present and the future. But he sat against lefties to lose starting opportunities and has mustered only two total hits across the last two postseasons, so the potential never fully materialized until now.
His path, once that of the Angels’ former No. 1 prospect, simply developed on a slower burn. It took time, and now the moment has arrived. Inside the Phillies clubhouse, his 2026 breakout hasn’t surprised anyone.
"He’s always been a good player," Phillies shortstop Trea Turner told USA TODAY Sports in May. "... Other people are starting to recognize him and deserve to do so."
Marsh said his breakout season stems more from a different approach and finding consistency, both with his pregame routine and playing time, than from any physical changes he made in the offseason.
To build his pregame consistency as an everyday player, Marsh has zeroed in on how veterans like Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Turner attack their work and how “stubborn” they are about sticking to their routines. He also mentioned he’s trying to keep his own routine simple, hoping that simplicity creates steady production.
"May not be true, but if you think that way, I feel like it’ll help," Marsh said.
Marsh finally got that consistent, everyday run when Don Mattingly took over as interim manager on April 28 after the Phillies’ 9-19 start under Rob Thomson. Since then, he’s hit .329, forcing Mattingly’s hand by penciling his name into the lineup every day, including some games at cleanup.
"It’s definitely helped just with staying in the flow of the game" Marsh said of the consistency he’s received from Mattingly. "Because pinch hitting is one of the hardest things to do in this game. It’s harder than playing every single day. … So there's something to the consistency that Donnie's been giving me and I'm super thankful."
Mattingly said he’s always believed Marsh had a good swing, and even conceded after the Phillies’ April 30 win over the Giants that when he was the manager of the Miami Marlins, the Marlins tried multiple times to trade for Marsh.
"He’s always been, for me, a good hitter. Been able to see this guy really young and probably just building confidence over time," Mattingly said in May when asked by USA TODAY Sports what he’s seen from Marsh. "Better game planner now (too), it sounds like. Knows what he wants to do with every guy (he’s facing)."
One contributing reason to Marsh’s platoon role under Thomson was his inability to hit against left-handed pitching. He’d either come off the bench as a defensive change late in the game once the opposing team’s left-handed starter was removed, or not play at all.
Last season, Marsh hit .197 against left-handed pitching. He’s hitting .259 against southpaws this season.
"You always knew he had it just by looking at his numbers based off right-handed pitching," Phillies second baseman Bryson Stott said. "Now he’s getting his chance and probably one of the best hitters in the league. It’s been really fun to watch him."
In just the last week, Marsh has delivered in big moments. In the Phillies’ dramatic 14-9 come-from-behind win over the Washington Nationals on June 23, Marsh crushed a game-tying, two-run home run with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning.
Through the Phillies' first 88 games, Marsh leads the team with a .315 batting average and 97 hits while he’s third in home runs, only trailing Schwarber and Harper, who have combined for 50 home runs themselves.
Marsh’s .315 batting average is good for the seventh-best among MLB hitters. He’s already surpassed his RBI total from last season, as he has driven in 46 runs thus far in the first half.
"He’s always asking questions, always wanting to get better. He’s putting it together," Harper said to USA TODAY Sports in May. "But he’s also taking his hits, (which) I think that’s huge also. He hits the ball both ways from left-center to right-center."
Former Phillies shortstop and manager Larry Bowa believes a big part of Marsh’s success at the plate comes from not being as hard on himself as he used to be.
"Sometimes he used to worry about his previous at bat, what he did or didn’t do. He’s finding a way now, whether you get a hit or whether you make an out, it’s a different at bat," Bowa told USA TODAY Sports. “Once you get into that mindset, the game’s never going to be easy, but you can relax a little bit."
Marsh agreed with Bowa and pushed it further. He said he’s made it a point this season not to sulk or dwell on past at‑bats, something that he’s struggled with in the past, especially once he came up to The Show after his success in the minors in the Angels’ organization.
"Learning how to honestly laugh at yourself a little bit without making a fool out of yourself,” Marsh said. “But (also) don’t be so hard on yourself because it’s already such a hard thing. It’s a game of almost impossible odds stacked against you as a hitter … Just have to know you’re going to fail."
He goes into the Phillies’ upcoming nine-game road trip to close out the first half of the season with 18 hits and 12 RBIs in his last 15 games to go along with six home runs, three of which came in the Pirates series.
For all the success at the plate this season thus far, Marsh said it’s made him appreciate the work that it took to get here "a lot more."
"It makes me respect the guys that show up and step in the box or toe the rubber every single day. I now know how physically taxing it can be, and I don’t mean that in a bad way. I love everything that comes with it," Marsh said.
Marsh ranked third among NL outfielders in Phase 1 of All‑Star voting with 668,191 votes, trailing only the Dodgers’ Andy Pages (800,496) and the Braves’ Ronald Acuña Jr. (693,472).
He’ll find out Saturday whether he’s been elected a starter for Dave Roberts’ NL squad. Starter or not, Marsh has more than earned the right to be considered for the Midsummer Classic, even if he’s too modest to say so himself.
“As a kid growing up, it's what everyone wants to be a part of, other than winning a World Series. Getting an All Star nod is pretty freakin cool,” Marsh said. “Hopefully this year I get to check it off of a bucket list. … It would mean the world, especially here in Philly playing for Philly.
“I'm getting chills right now thinking about it."
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NEW YORK, NY - APRIL 03: An overall view of Yankee Stadium during the national anthem before the game against the Miami Marlins on April 3, 2026 in New York, New York. (Photo by New York Yankees/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Happy Fourth of July! Or: Happy 43rd anniversary of Dave Righetti no-hitting the Red Sox at the old Yankee Stadium during another disgustingly hot day! And thank you to Rags for always giving us memories of that highlight every time Independence Day comes around.
There probably won’t be similar no-hit theatrics today, as the Yankees had to reach into the Triple-A cupboard to tap Brendan Beck for his second career appearance today with Carlos Rodón hitting the IL. On the bright side, Beck at least won’t have the pressure of snapping a losing streak, as the Yanks thankfully already did that last night by beating the Twins, 5-2. The seven-game skid is no more! So how about making it two wins in a row?
Today on the site, Nick will consider the rebuilding (but new-look) Rockies as a potential trade partner, Madison will run through the Rivalry Roundup, Jeff will celebrate what would have been the 88th birthday of our recently-departed dear friend John Sterling, and Josh will muse on how sports make us feel, particularly when our preferred team is playing such an ugly brand of baseball that it’s not even entertaining in a gallows humor-esque fashion.
Today’s Matchup:
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
Time: 1:35 p.m. EST
TV: YES Network, Twins.TV
Venue: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Questions/Prompts:
1. How long do you think rookie Brendan Beck will pitch today? (The Yankees have confirmed that he will start.)
NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 04: Carlos Rodón #55 of the New York Yankees looks on during the game against the Cleveland Guardians at Yankee Stadium on June 4, 2026 in New York, New York. (Photo by New York Yankees/Getty Images) | Getty Images
MLB Trade Rumors | Darragh McDonald: By now you’ve heard that the team took another IL hit yesterday, with lefty Carlos Rodón will spend some time away from the team with elbow inflammation. The worst-case was avoided because his UCL his still intact, but this remains tough news. Although it doesn’t seem at this time that the Yankees are overly concerned, every missed game by the projected starters means someone not quite as good has to take over. The word is that Brendan Beck will come up for his second cameo of the season and get the start.
In other news on injured pitchers named Carlos, the Yankees formally announced Triple-A righty Carlos Lagrange’s injury. He has a “capsular sprain of the right shoulder” and won’t throw for six weeks. This is just us speculating now, but best guess is that in the most ideal scenario, he plays a big-league role when rosters expand in September. But we’ll see; shoulder woes can be very tricky and the safest course of action is probably to expect nothing beyond very faint hopes.
New York Daily News | Gary Phillips: Cody Bellinger was an essential part of the three-headed dragon in the Yankee lineup to start the year, turning the team into an offensive force behind Ben Rice and Aaron Judge. However, as the Captain has gone down, Bellinger’s production has also trended downward, managing just a .357 OPS over the past two weeks. His comments to the Daily News, roughly summed up as “it f*****g sucks”, which, agreed, does seem to point to an overall frustration within the clubhouse that the team can’t seem to turn things around. The do get the Twins at home this weekend though, and a big series from Bellinger would go a long way to starting a run that doesn’t “f*****g suck”.
NJ.com | Bob Klapisch: Without Aaron Judge it really does feel like the Yankees are looking around the room at each other waiting for someone else to grab the ball and run with it. With Cam Schlittler looking so vulnerable against the Tigers this week, maybe that guy is going to be Gerrit Cole. The veteran has had an up-and-down run as he’s returned from Tommy John surgery, but the respect he commands in the clubhouse and the track record he’s put up in MLB might just make him the pseudo-Captain it seems the team might need. Cole went last night against Minnesota; hopefully the comment section of this post will receive that positively.
FanGraphs | Jay Jaffe: Alright, let’s end with something positive. FanGraphs has some tweaks to their teamwide-defense models, and a quick way to see if a model is valid is to see who the best are in a given metric. Here, the Dodgers and Cubs find themselves at the top of the table, and that makes sense to me. Fortunately, FanGraphs also ranks the Yankees as one of the top ten defenses in the game, which is not something you might guess based on the eye test of the team. Finally, something goes a little bit right.
Jul 3, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Garrett Mitchell (right) celebrates with teammate Cooper Pratt after hitting a two run home run in the second inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
As the legendary football coach Bear Bryant once said, “Defense wins championships,” and without it, the Milwaukee Brewers don’t take game one against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Crew takes care of business in an 11-inning affair by a score of 7-4.
Often known for his defensive abilities, Garrett Mitchell used his bat to sneak one over the center field wall to give the Brewers an early 2-0 lead. An inning later, Jake Bauers added another run to their tally with a base hit to right field to make it 3-0. It was nearly 4-0 before Lourdes Gurriel Jr. took away another home run from Mitchell, holding the game at bay.
Later in the bottom half of the third, the Diamondbacks found themselves with bases loaded, two outs, and down to their final strike of the inning; with a chance to cut into the Brewers’ lead, Nolan Arenado ripped a double into left field to clear the bases, tying the game at 3-3, putting an end to Kyle Harrison’s night as well.
The Brewers’ starting rotation has seen a slight decrease in productivity, specifically from their top two arms over their last couple of outings. Tonight, it was Harrison who struggled, not making it out of the third inning. He completed his evening with 2.2 innings pitched, striking out three, while allowing three runs to score on five hits and a walk. His main issue outside of the runs scoring was his pitch count, as he threw 72 pitches on the night.
Brewers quickly responded on offense by forcing the Diamondbacks to pull their starting pitcher after 3.1 innings. In Jose Cabrera’s third career start, he allowed three runs, three walks, and six hits while striking out three batters. It’s his second start in a row allowing multiple runs to score and his first time not making it into the fifth inning.
Looking at tonight’s overall issue for the Crew, it was clear: baserunning blunders followed by the inability to hit in the clutch. Overall on the night, the Crew stranded 12 runners on base, while going 3-for-18 at the plate with runners in scoring position.
The Bottom of the ninth inning is where we saw the leather on full display for the Brew Crew, saving the game in the long run. During the first at-bat of the inning with Trevor Megill on the mound, Max Kepler was robbed of extra bases with a nice leaping grab from Mitchell. Tommy Troy experienced frustration in his second at-bat as Joey Ortiz dove and caught a line drive that could’ve turned into extra bases as well.
Extra innings bit the Brewers in the rear earlier this week in their homestand finale against the Cubs as they stranded the tying and winning run on base. Those woes continued into tonight’s 10th inning, as Bauers struckout and Mitchell and Blake Perkins ended the inning with a ground out each.
With all the high-leverage arms used up entering the bottom of the 10th inning, Grant Anderson was on the mound to push it to the 11th inning. He intentionally walked Corbin Carroll before forcing Gabriel Moreno into a double play. Gurriel Jr. then popped out to Cooper Pratt, extending the ballgame another inning.
Late-night happy hour woke up the bats in the top of the 11th inning as a swinging bunt from Chourio forced a throwing error made by Ryan Thompson to allow the runners to score, giving the Brewers their first lead since the third inning. Brice Turang then cleared the bases with a two-RBI base hit to extend their lead to 7-3.
The Diamondbacks would only muster one run across the plate in the bottom of the 11th inning, allowing the Brewers to lock in their seventh extra-innings win on the season, improving to 54-32 overall on the season.
Jul 3, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (12) leaps up against the wall to rob a home run in the third inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Game Summary
Full recap to post shortly. In the meantime, feel free to vent in the comments! Or go to bed.
Loss Probability and Box Score
Outside the Box Score
Jose Cabrera led off the game with a 4 pitch walk of Christian Yelich with none of the pitches all that close. He then threw strikes in 8 of his next 11 pitches to retire the side without the leadoff walk advancing a base. Nice job by the young fella!
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is still playing effective defense out there. Like Gimli, he’s dangerous over short distances as he showed a great jump and tracking of the ball through a feet first slide to reach a sinking line drive in left field in the second inning.
The Brewers 2-run home run in the second inning had go to crew chief review to confirm it was indeed a roundtripper. A fan at the edge of the home run porch in centerfield appeared to reach over the wall, but it wasn’t conclusive where the ball made contact with the fan so the call of home run on field stood and the D-backs were down 2-0.
Jose Cabrera got an error on a poor throw on a pickoff attempt at first, making Vargas reach too far toward the sliding runner. The carom off Vargas’ outstretched glove resulted in a free 90 feet and a runner in scoring position for the Brewers with 1 out. Cabrera cleaned up his own mess though by getting a ꓘ (after falling behind 3-0 in the count!) and an easy fly out to end the inning.
Lourdes Gurriel made another golden play in the outfield to save his young pitcher in the third. With 2 on and 1 run already in, Lourdes tracked a deep fly ball into the left field bleachers, timed his jump perfectly, and reached over the wall to make the catch and record a huge out! Definitely needed that play right there to take a 6-0 game and keep it at 3-0 instead!
Ketel showed some nice hustle to get an infield single in the 3rd (though it would’ve been an incredible play if the Brewers were able to complete the 4-3 putout). That was followed by a strange at bat where Perdomo ended up striking out swinging on a ball way below the zone that would’ve been Ball 4. Fortunately Carroll and Gabi both singled (through Gabi Lane, of course!) and got the Diamondbacks on the board.
Nolan Arenado’s bases loaded double in the third looked like a grand slam off the bat to me, but it hit off the base of the wall in left and had to settle for a game-tying, 2-run 2-bagger and it chased the Milwaukee starter from the game.
Gerry Domo threw his name into the Play of the Game contender list with a superb defensive play to bail his team out of a jam in the 4th. With runners at 2nd and 3rd and 1 out, the infield came in and a ground ball was hit right at Gerry who was able to tag the runner going to 3rd and then throw to first to get the speedy Jackson Chourio to keep a run off the board!
After the Diamondbacks had an inning-ending double play all but wrapped up to end the fifth inning, tomfoolery struck! A sharp ground ball right to Ildemaro at first started things into motion and Vargas stepped on first before executing short rundown and throw to Domo who was closing in on the runner going to second. Thinking he was a dead duck, he stopped and waited for the inevitable tag from Domo, but when Domo slapped the tag on, the ball squirted out of his glove and resulted in the runner advancing to second. Fortunately, Jonny Lasagna did the business and struck out the next batter to pick up his defense and get out of the inning. Another note from the play that didn’t get the replay love of the No Tag was Arenado’s perfect execution of a pickle, then a pickle-gone-wrong. When Gerry advances to make the tag, Arenado assumes the spot at second base but as soon as the play was botched and the ball went rolling toward right field, Arenado didn’t hesitate and started running to third as he knew that there was no one there covering. Excellent fundamental execution by the Master.
After reaching first with a strong leadoff walk in the 7th, Tommy Troy took big leads to bait the lefty pitcher into throwing over a couple times. Once he got the move down, Troy bolted and stole second base easily to get himself into scoring position for Gerry and Corbin. Unfortunately, they did nothing with the opportunity.
Brandyn Garcia got into a little trouble to start the 8th. After the first 2 runners reached, the pinch-hitter chopped it toward the hole between first and second and Vargas made a great stab to field the ball and throw to second for one out but Garcia was slow to cover first so they couldn’t complete the double play. The next batter bunted with the runner on third, but the bunt was too close to Gabi who pounced on it and threw to third to catch the retreating runner for the out. Awesome defense again for the Diamondbacks!
The defense gets another shout out to start the 9th. A relatively routine grounder to second nearly turned into a 3 Stooges sketch. First Ildemaro started toward the grounder, realized he wouldn’t make the play so tried to turn back to 1st but instead just looked like he was running in quicksand and fell to the ground on his face. With all that happening in front of him, Ketel booted the ball. Fortunately, the carom was only a few feet away and he jumped on it and fired a missile to Paul Sewald, who seemed to be the only one able to do his job without error on this play. The ball reached Sewald’s glove right as his foot touched first base and right before Yelich’s foot touched the bag. A real blood pumping start to the 9th!
Tommy Troy’s lineout in the 9th was the result of an outstanding diving play by the Brewers replacement third baseman. Unfortunate.
Ketel Marte got a 2 out single to provide a glimmer of hope, then stole second base without the Brewers closer throwing a pitch! He got such a huge jump, by the time Megill turned around and tried to throw to second, Ketel had already reached second. Too bad Domo weakly grounded out to end the threat and send the game to extras.
Comment of the Game
The GameDay Thread was well attended, though maybe less than you’d expect for an 11 inning slog of a game. The GDT reached a final tally of 371 comments at time of publishing with COTG going to kiln born and Snake_Bitten for the appreciation of Gabi and his well worn path to right field:
Coming Up
The Diamondbacks face the Brew Crew for the second game of this 3-game set tomorrow evening with a 6:40pm first pitch Arizona time. The veteran right-hander Brandon Woodruff (2-1, 2.59 ERA) is listed as the probable starter for Milwaukee and Merrill Kelly (5-8, 5.84 ERA) will get the ball for the good guys on Independence Day.
I think one of Cal’s problems might be that he’s holding the bat wrong. (Photo by Olivia Vanni/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Tonight’s game began with a raucous ceremonial first pitch from head coach Mauricio Pochettino and the U.S. Men’s National Team. Canada would own the rest of the night.
The first inning was the canary in the coal mine, as J.P. Crawford biffed yet another throw from the hot corner in the top half, and in the bottom half, Randy Arozarena blew both ABS challenges in just the Mariners’ second at-bat of the game. The saving grace was Luis Castillo, who looked like he might have another great night, hitting 97.8 in a strikeout of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and seeming to surprise himself with a little extra movement on his slider early on.
But the wheels came off in the third inning. The bottom of the Blue Jays’ order got things started with a leadoff single from rookie Sean Keys, who scored on an atypically well-struck double from Andrés Giménez (who I will always hate). I thought the Mariners might be alright when sentient red ass John Schneider demonstrated his strategic genius with a sac bunt in the third inning. Alas, Vladito got the ball in the air enough to get over the infielders to score a second run. Things were really stacking up when Kazuma Okamoto reached as well. But the damage was limited to those two runs when Colt Emerson came up with what I think was his first potentially game-saving play to get the Mariners out of it. Even if it wasn’t his first and didn’t end up saving the game, it was good enough to get him his first career Sun Hat Award in tonight’s weak field.
Two runs, yet I said the wheels came off? Well, yeah. This was one of those games that never felt as close as the score suggested. Luis Castillo, despite only giving up two runs on five hits while walking just one, was not his prime self. He gave up 12 hard-hit balls out of 21 balls in play and only induced with eight whiffs. The velocity mostly held, but the battery was too tempted by that apparent movement on the slider, which did not hold.
On the other side, Dylan Cease sliced, diced, and spiced the Mariners, eventually putting the whole offense on ice. He was still pumping 98 to strike out Colt Emerson in the sixth, and that wasn’t even his best pitch. He was moving all over the zone, with his four-seamer up, his changeup and curveball down, his sinker and changeup arm side, and his slider glove side. I know we’ve all been frustrated by the Mariners offense, but this was genuinely a master class. Cease’s seven innings felt hopeless. An inside-out swing from J.P. that dribbled down the line was the only real threat. Seattle had a better showing against Jeff Hoffman and Louis Varland in relief, but more of the noble-effort variety. Víctor Robles drew a hard-won walk, and Emerson and Crawford worked full counts against Hoffman. Dominic Canzone took Louis Varland’s 99 mph to school. (A single counts as taking a pitcher to school tonight.)
On the one hand, it’s not the biggest deal in the world for the Mariners to lose a game where the Jays threw their Cy Young candidate and the Mariners had their starter who’s struggled the most this year. On the other hand, the Mariners have scored one run since Tuesday.
HOUSTON, TEXAS - MARCH 09: BJ Murray #7 of Team Great Britain hits a double in the fourth inning against Team Brazil during a 2026 World Baseball Classic Pool B game at Daikin Park on March 09, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Ty Blach started and got the win. Blach pitched five innings and gave up three runs on six hits. Blach walked four and struck out six.
Luis Peralta came on to get the save in the ninth and he gave up a solo home run to the first batter he faced. Then after one out, he hit a batter. But the final two batters went out meekly and Peralta got the save. He struck out two.
DH BJ Murray came a double shy of the cycle as he was 3 for 4 with a walk, a triple and a solo home run in the fourth inning. It was Murray’s 11th home run of the year. He had two total RBI and he scored twice.
Left fielder Brett Bateman went 2 for 4 with a walk and a steal. He added a needed insurance run in the top of the ninth with an RBI single.
Center fielder James Triantos was 2 for 4 with an RBI single in the sixth inning.
Murray’s home run. Murray leads the International League in batting average at .336 and is second in OBP at .433. He’s seventh in slugging.
Starter Dawson Netz allowed just two runs on four hits over five innings, but that was enough to give him the loss. Netz struck out four and walked no one.
First baseman Ariel Armas tripled in a run with one out in the bottom of the ninth to break up the shutout. Armas was 1 for 4.
Catcher Owen Ayers went 2 for 3 with a double and a walk.
South Bend Cubs
The South Bend Cubs were losing 1-0 after one inning when the game was suspended because of rain. They’ll try to finish the game tomorrow.
Jaxon Wiggins pitched the first inning of this game on a rehab assignment.
Starter Daniel Avita gave the Birds five scoreless innings, allowing just four hits. He struck out four, walked one and hit one batter as he picked up the win.
Hayden Frank threw the next three innings and gave up one run on one hit and one walk. He struck out five.
Sam Mettert pitched the ninth inning and collected the save. He did give up one run one one hit and one walk. He did not strike anyone out.
Three of the Pelicans runs came on a home run by center fielder Alexey Lumpuy in the third inning. It was Lumpuy’s fifth home run on the year. He was 1 for 3 with a walk.
Shortstop Alexis Hernandez was 3 for 4 with an RBI double in the fifth inning. Hernadez also scored a run and stole a base.
Jul 3, 2026; West Sacramento, California, USA; Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz (16) hits a two-run home run against the Miami Marlins during the third inning at Sutter Health Park. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Lee-Imagn Images | Dennis Lee-Imagn Images
The Athletics opened a three-game interleague series against the Miami Marlins on Friday night in West Sacramento. They could not overcome a 6-0 first inning deficit, allowing five home runs in a 12-5 loss.
Perkins’ Horrible Start
The A’s got off to a bad start, as the Marlins scored six runs in the first inning against A’s starting pitcher Jack Perkins. The first three batters of the game singled to load the bases. Perkins then walked Marlins’ second baseman Xavier Edwards to bring home the first run of the game. A second run scored on Athletics’ catcher Shea Langeliers sixth passed ball of the season.
The Marlins were not done. Left fielder Heriberto Hernandez hit his ninth home run of the season, a three-run shot to center. With two outs, center fielder Jakob Marsee slugged his fifth home run of the season, a solo shot to right field.
In the bottom of the first, the A’s put two runners on via singles from first baseman Nick Kurtz and right fielder Lawrence Butler, but Miami’s starter Tyler Phillips escaped the one-out, two-on jam unscathed.
The Marlins added the extra point in the second, courtesy of Edwards’ sacrifice fly.
Big Amish!
Perkins pitched a scoreless third inning, striking out the side. The A’s offense responded in the bottom of that inning. Shortstop Alika Williams led off with a double and scored on first baseman Nick Kurtz’s 20th home run of the season, a 457-foot shot to center field.
A’s left-handed reliever Jose Suarez replaced Perkins with the bases loaded and two outs in the fourth inning. Perkins allowed seven runs on seven hits and four walks in 3 2/3 innings pitched, but he recorded eight strikeouts, showcasing his appealing stuff. Suarez stranded the bases loaded by getting Marlins’ right fielder Griffin Conine to hit a line drive to Kurtz, who made a nice run-saving catch.
A’s Comeback Continues
In the last of the fourth, the Athletics loaded the bases with zero outs. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer and Carlos Cortes singled before Phillips walked Henry Bolte. Jeff McNeil hit a bases-clearing double to the left-center gap, trimming the A’s deficit to two runs.
A few batters later, Miami replaced Phillips with right-handed reliever Michael Petersen. Phillips allowed five runs on seven hits in 3 1/3 innings. Langeliers exited the game with a left thumb injury. Peterson retired pinch-hitter Jonah Heim and then Colby Thomas to end the bases-loaded threat and persevere Miami’s lead.
After striking out with the bases loaded and two outs, Thomas responded with a diving catch in left field, helping Suarez pitch a scoreless fifth inning.
In the fifth, Cortes and Bolte hit two straight singles with one out against Marlins reliever Tyler Zuber. The rally ended there as the A’s failed to capitalize on a runners-in-scoring-position opportunity for the second consecutive inning.
Trying to halt the A’s comeback, the Marlins increased their lead in the sixth inning. Facing A’s reliever Justin Sterner, first baseman Kyle Stowers hit a solo home run to right field, his ninth of the season.
Stowers was not done punishing A’s pitchers. He collected his fourth hit and second home run of the game with one out in the eighth inning, connecting off Athletics’ reliever Mason Barnett to extend Miami’s lead to 10-5. Marlins’ designated hitter Owen Caissie made it 12-5 with a two-run home run off Barnett in the ninth, his 11th of the season.
The Marlins bullpen held the A’s scoreless over the final three innings after the visitors hit three more home runs, securing the series-opening victory. The Athletics will try to even the series tomorrow night behind starter Aaron Civale, who is seeking his first victory since returning from the injured list. The Marlins will counter with right-hander Sandy Alcantara, who is 9-4 with a 4.20 ERA in 18 starts this season.
Jul 3, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) celebrates at first base after hitting a RBI-single during the third inning against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images | Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images
Blue Jays 2 Mariners 0
The bad news? We only scored 2 runs, which is pretty normal.
The good news? They didn’t score 2 runs.
We got both our runs in the third inning. Sean Keys started it with a single. Andrés Giménez doubled him home. John had Nathan Lukes bunt Giménez to third. IN THE THIRD INNING. When he was already in scoring position. Nathan Lukes, the one guy in the lineup who has been hitting (well, not the one guy, but hyperbola works when ranting). Vlad Guerrero singled Andrés home (he would have scored from second too). Kazuma Okamoto singled, but Daulton Varsho lined out and Alejandro Kirk ground out.
We only had six hits on the day (four of them in the third inning). Sean Keys had two hits. Lukes, Varsho, Kirk, and Ernie Clement had 0 fors.
It wasn’t a great offensive showing. Luis Castillo pitched a very good game.
Dylan Cease pitched a better game. Seven innings, just three hits, one walk and nine strikeouts.
He was helped out by Randy Arozarena, who, in the second at bat of the game, challenged two pitches and was wrong on both. He used both their challenges in one at bat. And they were easily strikes. That was a turning point in the game.
Jeff Hoffman pitched the eighth, allowing a walk, while getting two strikeouts. He was great. That’s hold #9 for Jeff.
And Louis Varland, giving up just a single, got the save (18th). He was helped by a very nice play by Vlad at first. He knocked knocked down a hard hit ground ball, picked it up and beat Arozarena to the bag for the first out.
Jays of the Day: Clease (0.40 WPA) and Giménez (0.13). And let’s give Honourable Mention to Hoffman and Varland.
No one got the ‘Other Award’. Kirk had the low mark, -0.08. But then, he did a great job with Cease and the relievers.
Tomorrow it is a 4:00 Eastern start time. Shane Bieber (0-0, 6.00) vs. Logan Gilbert (6-5, 3.42).
It was very nice to give most of the bullpen the day off (after yesterday’s day off). Hoffman threw 24 pitches and Varland 16.
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