Category: Baseball

The San Diego Padres made a roster move on Friday before their first game in the three-game series versus the Seattle Mariners. RHP Alek Jacob was recalled from Triple-A El Paso to join a bullpen that was depleted by the short start (1.2 innings pitched) of starter Griffin Canning on Thursday.

Starter/reliever Matt Waldron has been placed on the injured list with a right Brachialis muscle injury. Waldron started the first game in the recently completed series against the Milwaukee Brewers. He didn’t last long, giving up six runs in 2.2 innings pitched in a 6-4 loss. He also pitched two innings to finish the loss to the Brewers on Thursday. The trio of Ron Marinaccio, Yuki Matsui, and Waldron each pitched two innings in relief of Canning, saving the rest of the bullpen for other games.

Even with that effort, it was expected that a fresh arm would be called up with two of the last three games being mostly carried by the bullpen.

Alek Jacob started the season with El Paso after not making the Padres bullpen out of Spring Training. He was called up on April 14 and pitched one inning on April 15 versus Seattle. He allowed one hit and no runs with a walk and was optioned back to El Paso on April 17.

With the Chihuahuas, Jacob has pitched 17.2 innings with a 4.08 ERA. He has 18 strikeouts to 10 walks. He throws a four-seam fastball at 85 mph, a changeup, a sinker, and a sweeper from a sidearm delivery.

Why don’t we score more than two runs?

I have stuff on this morning, but should be back to watch the game by the second inning. But I’m putting together the GameThread the night before, so I don’t have the lineups

They are saying Mason Fluharty will start and Spencer Miles will be second up. I’m hoping Miles can to 3 innings again. On the Tigers side it is Casey Mize (2-2, 2.90)

This is ‘rivalry weekend’ and our rival is, apparently, the Tigers. The Tigers were once our rivals, in the late 1980s and early 1990s. But now? I guess someone has to be our rivals. I suppose I would say the Yankees’ are our rivals, but then half the teams in baseball would call them their rivals. But really, why are the Red Sox and Braves rivals?

Really, all baseball wants is a way to hype the Yankees/Mets series. The others aren’t such a big deal.

Just yesterday we told you about how well Nick Sogard was doing down in AAA. Well, now we’ll get a chance to see if he can keep that going in the big leagues. Ahead of tonight’s game against the Braves, the Sox called up Sogard to take the place of Trevor Story, who has been placed on the 10-day IL.

If you’re thinking to yourself, wait… Trevor Story is hurt? You’re not alone. But Chris Cotillo reports that he’s been “battling a groin issue” since late April.

It goes without saying that this groin issue is probably minor, and probably the type of thing he’d keep playing through if he wasn’t literally one of the very worst hitters in baseball this year. But he is, raising the question of whether this this a “phantom IL” stint and, if so, will MLB investigate? My gut says and yes to the former and no to the latter. And, anyway, MLB should probably spend some time investigating Aroldis Chapman’s hat from last night’s game:

Suffice it to say, Trevor Story is not going to be the shortstop on the next great Red Sox team. So it will be interesting to see whether the Sox start the clock on the Marcelo Mayer era at shortstop now, or whether Andruw Monasterio mans the position for the next week or two. Stay tuned.

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The Texas Rangers were shut out by the Houston Astros on Friday night, falling 2-0.

However, with Jacob deGrom taking the mound this evening, my Rangers vs. Astros predictions expect the visitors to flip the script at Daikin Park.

Let's dive deeper into my MLB picks for Saturday, May 16.

Who will win Rangers vs Astros today: Rangers (-145)

Jacob deGrom has posted a 2.81 xFIP and 2.60 SIERA in 2026, indicators that he is every bit deserving of his strong 2.61 ERA.

The Texas Rangers' right-hander has not allowed much quality contact, striking out a remarkable 32.8% of opposing batters on the year.

Now, the two-time Cy Young winner has a mouthwatering matchup against the Houston Astros,who rank 23rd in wOBA and own the second-highest strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitching in May.

DeGrom will have his way against Houston's struggling offense, giving Texas a great chance of prevailing. 

COVERS INTEL:Isaac Paredes is the only everyday Astros hitter with a batting average above .240 in May.

Rangers vs Astros Over/Under pick: Under 8 (-120)

Generating offense has been a major problem for the Astros, with several key bats missing from the lineup. They have hit their team total Under in 13 of the last 15 games (+10.35 units, 55% ROI), and a date with deGrom is only going to highlight their woes at the plate — especially when it comes to striking out.

The Rangers aren't exactly firing on all cylinders either. They are hitting only .216 in May and own the fifth-highest ground ball rate, leading to a lot of easy outs.

Don't expect fireworks in this one.

Rangers vs Astros odds

• Moneyline: Rangers -145 | Astros +125
• Run line: Rangers -1.5 (+115) | Astros +1.5 (135)
• Over/Under: Over 8 (+100) | Under 8 (-125)

Rangers vs Astros trend

Texas has hit the game total Under in 17 of its last 25 games (+8.4 Units, 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Astros.

How to watch Rangers vs Astros and game info

Rangers vs Astros latest injuries

Rangers vs Astros weather

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Max Muncy homered in Friday night’s Dodgers win in Anaheim, his team-leading 12th of the season. The third baseman is in his ninth season with Los Angeles and is hitting .275/.372/563 with a 162 wRC+ that ranks seventh in the National League and 2.2 fWAR that is third in the league.

Ben Clemens wrote about Muncy’s season, and his consistency, for FanGraphs:

It’s not so much that he’s found a new gear; you’d have a hard time differentiating between his 2025 and 2026 component statistics. That’s basically my point, though. What he’s doing isn’t surprising, because he’s made it commonplace. He’s hit more or less like this for a decade.

Kiké Hernández has played six games so far on his rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City, including three games this week in Albuquerque. Hernández talked to Geoff Grammer at the Albuquerque Journal about several topics, but also his health relative to last season:

“I knew it was going to be a long rehab. And even though I’m ahead of schedule, it still feels like it’s forever, because it’s the first time in my entire career that I missed spring training and I missed Opening Day,” said Hernández. “… Last year was miserable, you know? Not only performance wise, but I was just in a lot of pain every time I took the field. So I’m just happy that I’m pain free right now.”

The public comment process for the Dodger Stadium gondola project is exceedingly difficult to navigate, chronicled by Martín Macías Jr. at LA Public Press.

Former major league outfielder and current ESPN broadcaster Doug Glanville wrote about his time guest-hosting ‘This Week in Baseball’ while with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2000, at his Welcome to Glanville newsletter.

“The show took viewers around baseball without heavy bias toward one particular market,” Glanville wrote. “It simply made you love baseball wherever, and whenever, it was being played.”

It does appear that the days of Spencer Strider reaching back and delivering some electrifying stuff in the form of a four-seam heater are over. Strider has made three starts so far to get his 2026 season going and so far, he’s been sitting in the range of 96-97 mph when it comes to his four-seam fastball. Indeed, it’s looking like the version of Strider who could simply blow away other hitters while touching 100-mph on the radar gun is firmly in the rear-view mirror at this point.

With that being said, there’s something exciting brewing when it comes to this current form of Spencer Strider and his breaking balls, in particular. During Friday’s walk-off win over the Red Sox, Strider finished with 5.1 innings under his belt and just one run allowed on three hits and three walks. He also struck out four batters but I’m not here to talk about the strikeouts. I’m actually here to talk about the hits. One hit in particular stood out. In the fifth inning, Ceddane Rafaela led things off by hitting a ground rule double.

While a ground rule double itself isn’t shocking, the fact that Rafaela got a hit in itself was shocking. It isn’t because of anything that has to do with him (though he is off to a fine start so far in 2026 so props to him), it has to do with the pitch that he got the hit off of. It was a curveball. That was the first time in 2026 where an opposing hitter got a hit off of a curveball from Spencer Strider.

Not only that, it was the first time that anybody has gotten a hit off of Strider on anything but his fastball. Indeed, Strider has given up eight hits over 14.2 innings pitched so far and only one of those hits came after Strider threw anything but a fastball. In fact, opposing hitters still have yet to hit his slider or his changeup, either. He’s through three starts now and the Batting Average against his slider and changeup is still at .000.

It’s also not like he’s simply been just “getting away with it,” either. Heading into his start on Friday, the xBA against his slider was at .002. The xBA against his curveball was at .005 and while he’s rarely thrown the changeup so far, the xBA on that pitch is still at a paltry .087. It’s been early yet for Strider but at the same time, the fact that his breaking stuff has been quite literally near-unhittable has been very impressive to see so far.

“I think that was some growth during the time after he came back from the injury,” opined manager Walt Weiss when I asked him about the success that Strider has had with his breaking balls lately. “The fastball last year wasn’t what it was and so [he’s had to] get a little creative and work on some of his secondary pitches. He did and he’s better for it now. In the end, I think he’s going to be a more well-rounded pitcher.”

A more well-rounded version of Spencer Strider would be an awesome sight to see. If Strider can continue to get more efficient with his pitches so that he has to really battle to get through six innings, then we might be in the early stages of seeing a special version of Strider on the mound. The fact that his breaking stuff has such good underlying metrics is indicative that he could end up being dominant with that stuff until hitters figure out a way to counter it.

Hopefully it takes opposing batters a very long time to figure out how to crack the code that Spencer Strider has put out there with his breaking pitches because right now, it is giving the opposition a real devil of a time. It’s still early yet for Strider but it’s still very encouraging to see how effective he was against the Dodgers on the road and then to see him build upon that start with what he did in his first home start of the season. This could be the earliest sign so far that would indicate Strider may be on his way back to being one of the most effective pitchers in both Atlanta’s rotation and baseball in general. We’ll see what happens!

Worcester: L, 2-5 (BOX SCORE)

In this bullpen game, every pitcher gave up their share of Buffalo (Blue Jays AAA) runs. The team was bogged down, moreover, by uninspired offense. Despite drawing 8 walks, they hit 2-for-14 with runners in scoring position, had just four batters record a hit, and never held a lead. By the time Buffalo’s Je’Von Ward hit a homer off Wyatt Olds, it was a 4-2 game that felt out of reach despite not being so.

Portland: W, 2-1 (F/10) (BOX SCORE)

Red Sox fans in Hartford, Connecticut (Rockies AA) that stayed for some extra baseball were treated to Max Ferguson’s third hit of the night driving in what would become the winning run after a game that lacked offensive firepower across the board on Franklin Arias’ night off. This wasn’t due to a lack of runners getting on, as, and stop me if you’ve heard this before in this season organizationally, they couldn’t bring the runners home. This game shouldn’t have been close, but it was. At least Portland pulled it out.

Also notable was John Holobetz putting together one of his best outings of the season in five innings after an opener from a rehabbing Danny Coulombe. I gotta be honest real quick: I don’t really see the appeal of rushing back a 36-year-old mop-up guy with an ERA nearing 6 and an inability to strike guys out to a high level in relief. I’d instead opt to give some younger relief arms some shine or at least some experience. But what do I know?

Greenville: L, 2-10 (BOX SCORE)

If you’re playing the “The Drive have still only won once this month” game with me, know that Greenville has now lost thirteen of their last fourteen games. Marcus Phillips couldn’t make it out of the fourth, Shea Sprague got peppered by Hot Rods bats (Rays High-A) and Greenville was hitless in 11 chances with runners in scoring position. Perhaps the one bright spot was Yophery Rodriguez mashing his 10th home run of the year, but even that cut the deficit to 5-2 and Bowling Green would score two in the next inning anyway.

Salem: : L, 5-6 (BOX SCORE)

Salem found themselves in an early 3-1 hole in Fredericksburg (Nationals A) but fought back. In the end, the only home run of the game the RidgeYaks let up back in the first inning ended up being the difference in this one as even Ty Hodge’s two hits to drive runners in couldn’t place Salem in the win column in this hard-fought game.

Have a scorching Saturday.

The Royals have made a roster move this morning, sending Matt Strahm to the Injured List. In his place, Bailey Falter will return from the Injured List.

Jaylon Thompson with a few more details:

During the game last night, I remember Strahm threw a couple of odd pitches and Matt Quatraro and the training staff went out to check on him. But they seemed ok with what they saw. He finished out the at-bat. But John Schreiber, who warmed up quickly, came in to face righty Iván Herrera to end the inning.

Strahm, in his return to the Royals this season, has pitched in 17 games with a 1-1 record and a 3.86 ERA and 17K in 16.1 IP.

The back of the bullpen is starting to look mighty thin as he joins closer Carlos Estevez on the IL.

Falter has been throwing down in Omaha and has a 2.70 ERA in 13.1 IP. He hasn’t pitched for the Royals since April 1st.

Aaron Judge hit it out of the park again.

A one-of-kind baseball card of Judge in his first professional season with the Yankees sold at auction for a staggering $838,750 on Friday.

The 2013 Bowman Aaron Judge Superfractor 1/1 — depicting the eventual Yankees captain just after he was selected by the team in the first round of the 2013 MLB draft — is considered the most important unsigned Judge card to exist.

Its previous owner, a Texan, didn’t realize the card’s value until a dealer came to his house to purchase cards — and was left awestruck by the rare find, explained Chris Ivy of Heritage Auctions.

The dealer, knowing its true value, posed the question, “So if I offered you $25,000 for this card, you would take it?”

He didn’t even let the owner answer before advising him not to accept his lowball offer.

“Don’t, this card is worth a lot more. You should reach out to an auction house,” he said.

“Collectors helping other collectors is the foundation of our hobby and we are thrilled to be a part of it,” said Ivy. “The huge result for the card is a life-changing moment for the consignor and his family and we couldn’t be happier for them.”

In March, the autographed version of the same card sold for $5.2 million, setting the record for the most expensive modern baseball card ever sold.

Mariners players have a plethora of team-issued t-shirt options to choose from. One of the most popular designs comes from the high performance team, featuring a modified Rod of Asclepius on the front, where the wings are swapped for the Mariners trident; on the back, (AVAIL)ABILITY, with “ABILITY” highlighted in white. It’s a play on the old chestnut “the best ability is availability” – a slogan meant to encourage players to center the importance of proper conditioning.

But it’s important that availability never overrule the needs of the body: something Cal Raleigh might have run up against after landing on the IL for the first time in his career.

“To be honest, I wanted to play,” Raleigh said, meeting with the media on Friday. “I wanted to see if I could do it – to what extent it was going to affect me, and I told the trainers, if it ever got to a point where I was hurting the team or I couldn’t go anymore, I’d let them know. And essentially it just got to that point where I didn’t want to hurt the team.”

For those who grumble about players pushing through playing hurt, put oneself in Raleigh’s shoes: he’s an everyday catcher, used to shrugging off daily bumps and bruises that would require a weeklong stay in a Victorian-era convalescent asylum for the rest of us mere mortals. And he’s not just any catcher; he’s the Mariners’ iron man, either leading or being near the top of the leaderboard for innings caught every year of his career. Anyone who has watched any significant amount of Mariners baseball has seen Cal Raleigh get knocked down seven times and stand up eight – often in the same game. Therefore, we can forgive Raleigh, for whom pain hums constantly like an overhead fluorescent light, for thinking he could push past this latest ailment, one in a long string of problems faced, fought with, and conquered.

The question, now, is if Raleigh can forgive himself, or at least find a détente with the nebulous forces of baseball injury luck.

“It’s tough,” he said. “You get frustrated, because you know…it’s nothing really I could have controlled or done better. I prepared the same way, and it just kind of happened on a swing. So it’s out of my control. Something that doesn’t normally happen. So, you know, obviously frustrated. But I’m optimistic that it’s going to get better.”

It’s understandable why this situation is especially frustrating for Raleigh, who works tirelessly to control the controllables – not just for himself, but for his entire pitching staff. His work ethic is legendary: always one of the first players in the building, his daily agenda presidential in density, rarely idly scrolling his phone at his locker, never goofing off in the player lounge. Even a half-decade into his big-league career, Raleigh doesn’t seem to know what to do with himself on an off-day, wandering the clubhouse in squishy foam slides and loose athletic shorts, iced coffee clutched in hand; relaxed, but unable to disconnect entirely. Back at spring training, he left for the WBC like a concerned parent leaving his pitching staff with the babysitter, double-checking everyone knew where the important numbers were, lingering at the door, jokingly demanding to be sent updates from the media on if his pitchers were misbehaving in his absence.

But Raleigh isn’t having to go through this experience – his first time landing on the IL – alone. One of his closest friends on the team, Luke Raley, just went through this same injury last season. Raleigh recounted watching his friend, whose dedication to “availability” rivals his own, struggle to even swing a bat, and has taken the advice from his equally-tough friend to heart.

“It was just so hard on him, mentally,” Raleigh said. “And we knew what kind of teammate he was, so watching him go through that last year was really hard. And we talk a lot, so that’s something – I obviously had to listen to him about it.”

Obliques are notoriously tricky injuries to rehab, in that they won’t present with soreness until the muscle is called upon, often when it’s too late to be mitigated – especially not in baseball, a sport that is all about core rotation. Raley has talked about his own struggles with the uncertainty that comes with this particular injury.

The good news for Raleigh is that according to Mariners GM Justin Hollander, the scans the team just got back are “similar or slightly improved” from the ones he had done early in May, when Raleigh first felt the discomfort, meaning Raleigh didn’t further injure himself trying to play through the injury. When pressed to put a grade on the strain, Hollander said a one, not even a one-plus.

Raleigh had an anti-inflammatory shot on Friday and will be shut down for the next week, minimum. Once any trace of lingering soreness is gone, the team will re-evaluate, and if all looks good, he’ll be cleared to restart baseball activities, most likely in Arizona. Hollander said that based on the scans, he doesn’t anticipate a lengthy layoff, but emphasized how careful the organization needs to be given the nature of the injury.

“We want to make sure that when he’s next in the game, he’s doing it with full confidence and pain-free. The hesitation that can come with not knowing if it’s going to hurt a little bit when you swing, or when it will hurt, is probably not good for him or for us.”

The Mariners think sending Raleigh to Arizona will be the best for his recovery: he’ll have a full staff of rehab experts to work with, access to equipment and training facilities they don’t have space for in Seattle, and the complex league teams to get competitive at-bats against. He’ll be able to focus solely on his rehab.

But it will also involve Raleigh having to be away from his team and fully disconnect for the first time, in-season, in his career. Unless, of course, he talks the Mariners out of it.

“If that involves Arizona, that involves Arizona,” he said on Friday, apparently having not listened to Hollander’s declaration that he would be headed there. “But if they need me here and they need me to do things off the field, then I will gladly stay and do that as well.”

Of course he’d gladly stay, tear up the list of important numbers and send the babysitters home. But would it be the best thing for him? Maybe not. Even before the injury, Raleigh was off to a tough start to the season, perhaps a knock-on effect from missing regular spring training while at the WBC. Now, he’s been handed an opportunity to take a step away – being strong-armed to do so, in fact. What might the baseball gods be asking Raleigh to learn from that?

“I don’t know,” he said, brow furrowed. “Patience, maybe?”

“Obviously, the last few weeks have not been great, performance-wise, health-wise, so I don’t know. Maybe just take a step back and just take a deep breath, relax a little bit, maybe watch the game from a different point of view and see where I can get better, what I can do better as a player, as a leader, as a teammate. Usually you don’t have that kind of time to reflect during a season, but within this scenario, maybe that’s something that I can do better.”

Cal Raleigh has been given the gift of time to reflect – a gift not asked for, maybe not wanted, but a gift nonetheless. A time to decide what “(avail)ability” might mean for him, going forward.

Friday in Albuquerque showcased a pair of players who may very well find themselves with the Dodgers within a few weeks.

Player of the day

River Ryan struck out four and allowed only one run on the moon at Isotopes Park in Albuquerque, with four strikeouts. It was his first start since April 11, after missing a month in between with a hamstring injury. Ryan only allowed two singles and a walk while throwing 53 pitches during his four frames.

With both Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow on the injured list in Los Angeles, Ryan is a potential option for the Dodgers rotation, though perhaps after another start or two at least in Triple-A.

“The most important thing is his progression. If everyone isn’t on board with that and speeding it up, it’s moot, it’s just not going to happen,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters in Anaheim on Friday. “But if the training staff feels that it’s okay and you’re not compromising him and the progression, then it’s a conversation.”

Triple-A Oklahoma City

As usual there was a ton of scoring in a minor league game in New Mexico, but the Comets accounted for nearly all of it in a rout of the Albuquerque Isotopes (Rockies).

Four Comets had three hits, including Alex Freeland, who homered and drove in five runs, and Jack Suwinski, who homered, stole a base, and drove in four, plus James Tibbs III, who reached base six times.

Kiké Hernández reached base five times with three hits and two walks, and scored three runs in his sixth rehab game for Oklahoma City. All of them so far have been at third base, including seven innings at the hot corner on Friday. Roberts earlier this week said Hernández will likely also play some second base and outfield during his rehab assignment, which will run through next weekend in Triple-A.

Double-A Tulsa

The Drillers allowed the tying run in the eighth inning, then nobody scored until the Springfield Cardinals won with three runs in the top of the 12th inning.

Josue De Paula and Kendall George both doubled and reached base multiple times. Zyhir Hope singled and stole a base. Catcher Griffin Lockwood-Powell walked three times and doubled in his four plate appearances.

High-A Great Lakes

The Loons put up crooked numbers in three different innings in a rout of the West Michigan Whitecaps (Tigers), with a pair of Eduardos figuring prominently in the win.

Third baseman Eduardo Guerrero had three singles, a walk, and a stolen base, and drove in four runs. Center fielder Eduardo Quintero doubled, singled, walked, stole a base, scored three times and drove in another.

Quintero had a rough April, hitting .195/.305/.280 in April in his second taste of High-A. But he’s been on fire in May, hitting .389/.476/.528 in nine games. MLB Pipeline updated its top-100 prospects list this week, with Quintero ranked 38th after being rated No. 30 in January.

Left-hander Jakob Wright struck out four and allowed one run in five innings for the win for Great Lakes.

Class-A Ontario

Kellon Lindsey hit one of three Tower Buzzers home runs, part of a 6-1 lead through three innings, but the San Jose Giants dominated the rest of the way.

Lindsey also doubled and scored two runs in his third game back off the injured list. With Emil Morales and Joendry Vargas moving around the left side of the infield this season, the shortstop Lindsey in his first three games for Ontario has played second base.

Chase Harlan reached base four times in the loss with a double, single, and two walks.

Hyun-Seok Jang allowed three runs in five innings with six strikeouts in his start. Through six games and 26 innings for Ontario in his repeat season of Class-A, Jang has 27 strikeouts against nine walks to go with his 3.81 ERA.

Transactions

Triple-A: River Ryan was activated from the injured list. Charlie Barnes was called up to the Dodgers with Blake Snell getting placed on the major league injured list.

Friday scores

• Oklahoma City 17, Albuquerque 1
• Springfield 7, Tulsa 4 (12 innings)
• Great Lakes 9, West Michigan 3
• San Jose 12, Ontario 7

Saturday schedule

• 3:35 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Aidan Foeller) vs. West Michigan (Rayner Castillo)
• 5 p.m.: Tulsa (Adam Serwinowski) vs. Springfield (Jurrangelo Cijntje)
• 5:35 p.m.: Oklahoma City (TBA) at Albuquerque (Valente Bellozo)
• 6:05 p.m.: Ontario (Jesus Tillero) vs. San Jose (TBA)

If you were concerned either that the Cub offense wouldn’t return to form or about how long it would be before it did, then Friday night was a comforting game. The pitching was a little rough around the edges. Most concerningly, they allowed three homers. But that Cub offense had 14 hits and drew six walks. The Dodgers offense had a pretty good night offensively themselves, but the Cubs output was enough to bounce back into the top on-base percentage position among major league teams.

The fun part is the White Sox slugged three homers (not fun) and managed five total runs. The Cubs four doubles among their 14 hits, but managed 10 runs. Generally the team that slugs better is a good bet to win a game, but that didn’t hold here. The Cubs only slugged .439 while the Sox were at .576. So it wasn’t even a little close. The thing is, that’s a better than average slugging percentage for the Cubs and all the more impressive when you consider that they had 48 plate appearances (though the divisor is at bats and not PA).

All nine Cub starters had hits and four of the 10 players either drew walks or were hit by a pitch. So this was a diverse and balanced offensive output. Six different Cubs scored runs and six drove in a run. Eight of the nine starters and nine players overall had either a run or run batted in. All in all, the Cubs forced Sox pitchers to make 194 pitches. We haven’t talked about that this year, but that’s the kind of thing that could potentially win an additional game later in the series. The White Sox had to use five relievers and Jordan Hicks threw 35 pitches. That could affect his availability later in the series.

It wasn’t particularly easy, but things broke loose quite a bit. Hopefully, this win carries the team through the weekend. The Saturday game was the one that Fangraphs had as the most likely Sox win of the bunch. So nothing totally unexpected in this win. But it was just what the doctor ordered, just the same. This offense tends to either be locked in or out of whack. Maybe this locks them back in. The Sox are going to score some runs with the power they have in their lineup. The general path to victory is going to be scoring a handful (or two) of runs.

Three Positives:

• Carson Kelly had three hits, one of them a double, and drove in four runs.
• Trent Thornton had two key innings, striking out two and facing the minimum of six batters to do it. He quieted the game right when it was important for the Cubs to take control.
• Seiya Suzuki had a single and a double, drew a walk. He drove in a run and scored two.

Game 45, May 15: Cubs 10, White Sox 5 (29-16)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Trent Thornton (.281). 2 IP, 6 BF, 2 K
• Hero: Carson Kelly (.274). 3-5, 2B, 4 RBI
• Sidekick: Matt Shaw (.078). HBP, BB, RBI

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Ryan Rolison (-.243). 0.1 IP, 4 BF, 2 H, BB, ER
• Goat: Edward Cabrera (-.105). 4.2 IP, 19 BF, 3 H, 3 BB, 3 ER, 2 K
• Kid: Nico Hoerner (-.026). 1-6, R

WPA Play of the Game: With the bases loaded and two outs in the seventh inning, the score tied, Carson Kelly had an infield single, driving in a run. (.183)

White Sox Play of the Game: In the bottom of the sixth with the Cubs up one, Miguel Vargas led off with a solo homer. (.183)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 44 Winner: Brown 173 of 231 votes

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Michael Busch/Shōta Imanaga +13
• Michael Conforto +12
• Ian Happ +7.5
• Ben Brown +5.5
• Caleb Thielbar -6
• Phil Maton -7
• Matt Shaw -10
• Dansby Swanson -11
• Seiya Suzuki -17

Current Win Pace: 104.4 wins

Up Next: Game two of the three-game series Saturday night on the South Side. Jameson Taillon (2-2, 3.94, 45.2 IP) gets his ninth start of the year. Last time out, he was pretty good against the Rangers, despite taking the loss. He allowed one run on four hits and two walks in 5.1 innings. He’s been better at home but also better at night, so this is a decent spot for Taillon. The one issue is that his Achilles Heel has been allowing homers. He’s served up 11 of them already in 45.2 IP.

29-year-old Davis Martin (5-1, 1.62, 50 IP) makes his ninth start of the year. He’s been flat out terrific for them. He’s pitched in parts of three previous seasons with a combined career ERA of 3.88 (306 IP). Last time out, he got a no-decision against the Mariners despite allowing only one run over six innings. He struck out nine and walked only two in that one. Martin was a 14th round pick of the White Sox back in 2018 (408th overall). All of his splits are pretty good but at home he has a 1.02 ERA. He doesn’t walk a lot of hitters.

It isn’t hard to see why Fangraphs likes this one for the Sox. Let’s ignore the script and get one anyway.

Go Cubs!

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous days recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (19-24) lost 4-1 (BOX SCORE)

Pecko got the start and had some struggles in the first inning allowing 3 runs. He ended up allowing those 3 runs over 3.2 innings. The offense got on the board in the 6th inning on a Price solo home run. The pen was solid allowing just one run but the offense was quiet the rest of the way as Sugar Land fell 4-1.

Note: Alexander has a .908 OPS this season.

• CJ Alexander, RF: 2-for-4, 2B
• Collin Price, DH: 1-for-3, R, HR, RBI, BB

• Ethan Pecko, RHP: 3.2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 3 K
• Brandon Bielak, RHP: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
• Nate Pearson, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Josh Hendrickson, LHP: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (16-21) lost 6-5 (BOX SCORE)

Hader got the start in a rehab and tossed a scoreless innings with 2 strikeouts. The Hooks offense got on the board in the third inning on an Encarnacion solo home run. Swanson relieved Hader and went 4 innings allowing 2 runs. The offense picked up another run in the 6th on a wild pitch. The pen struggled a bit allowing 4 runs over the 6th and 7th as the Hooks found themselves down 6-2. They rallied in the 8th scoring 2 runs on a Holy RBI single and Austin RBI double. Holy added an RBI double in the 9th but he was stranded at second base as the Hooks fell 6-5.

Note: Holy is hitting .375 in Double-A this season.

• Jeremy Pena, SS: 0-for-5
• Yamal Encarnacion, 2B: 3-for-3, 4 R, 2B, HR, RBI, 2 BB, 3 SB
• Max Holy, 3B: 2-for-4, R, 2B, 2 RBI, BB, SB
• Trevor Austin, DH: 2-for-4, 2B, RBI

• Josh Hader, LHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• Nic Swanson, RHP: 4.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
• Ramsey David, RHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Alex Santos, RHP: 1.0 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
• Jose Guedez, RHP: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

A+: Asheville Tourists (9-28) won 23-11 (BOX SCORE)

The Asheville offense came to play last night. They jumped out to an early lead scoring 6 runs in the first on a Thomas solo home run, Frey RBI double, a run on an error, Nunez 2 run home run and Powell RBI single. They scored 4 in the 2nd inning on a Walker 3 run double and Powell RBI double. The offense got 7 more runs in the third inning on a Frey RBI double, Call 3 run home run, Walker solo home run and Thomas 2 run single. Smith got the start and pitched well allowing just one unearned run over 6 innings. The offense add more runs in the 5th scoring 3 runs on a Schiavone 2 run single and run on a double play. They added 3 more runs in the 6th on a Walker RBI double, Powell groundout and a run on a wild pitch. The pen struggled a bit but the offense did more than enough damage as Asheville won 23-11.

Note: Schiavone has a 1.259 OPS this season.

• Justin Thomas, CF: 2-for-4, 2 R, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB
• Jason Schiavone, C: 5-for-6, 2 R, 2 2B, 2 RBI
• Ethan Frey, DH: 3-for-6, 2 R, 3 2B, 2 RBI
• Alejandro Nunez, 2B: 1-for-2, 4 R, HR, 2 RBI, 4 BB
• Chase Call, RF: 4-for-5, 4 R, HR, 3 RBI, BB, SB
• Kyle Walker, SS: 3-for-6, 3 R, 2 2B, HR, 5 RBI
• Caden Powell, LF: 3-for-5, 2 R, 2B, 3 RBI, BB
• Zach Daudet, 3B: 3-for-6, 2 R, 2B

• Parker Smith, RHP: 6.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 3 K (WIN)
• Joan Ogando, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Francisco Frias, RHP: 0.2 IP, 3 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
• Colby Langford, LHP: 1.0 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 1 K

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (16-21) won 9-3 (BOX SCORE) 

The Woodpeckers got on the board in the first inning scoring 3 runs on a Huezo solo home run and Newman 2 run triple. Weber got the start and went 4 innings allowing 3 runs. The offense got another run in the 4th inning on a Huezo RBI double. In the 6th, Huezo added a 3 run home run to extend the lead. The offense added 2 more runs in the 9th inning on a Cauro RBI single and Ramirez sac fly. Serrano tossed 5 no-hit innings to close it out as the Woodpeckers won 9-3.

Note: Huezo has a .823 OPS this season.

• Anthony Huezo, RF: 4-for-5, 2 R, 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, SB
• Xavier Neyens, 3B: 0-for-3, 2 BB
• Kevin Alvarez, CF: 0-for-4, R, BB
• Arturo Flores, C: 0-for-3, 2 R, BB
• DJ Newman, LF: 1-for-4, R, 3B, 2 RBI, BB
• Carlos Cauro, 1B: 1-for-4, RBI
• German Ramirez, SS: 2-for-3, 2 R, RBI, BB
• Brandon Forrester, 2B: 1-for-4, RBI

• Charlie Weber, RHP: 4.0 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
• Jose Serrano, RHP: 5.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K (WIN)

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Ryan Weiss – 8:05 CT

CC: Brett Gillis – 7:05 CT

AV: Dylan Howard – 5:05 CT

FV: TBD – 6:05 CT

Whenever the Nats have a chance to get to .500, they fall on their face. This is not just a gut feeling, we have the numbers to back this up. The Nats have lost the last 15 times they have had the chance to get to .500. They will have a chance to snap that embarrassing streak this afternoon against the O’s.

The Nats were in a similar spot the other day. They had just won a one run game thanks to a Daylen Lile home run. The boys were riding high, and were one win away from sweeping the Reds and getting to .500. However, they laid an egg in that contest, losing 15-1 in a game where Joey Wiemer had to pitch.

After a close win in front of an electric Nationals Park crowd, the team is in a familiar spot. They are one win away from that .500 record. Getting that one win has proven to be very elusive for this group. For the fanbase, it is getting frustrating. The difference between being 23-23 and 22-24 is not that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things. After all, it is a 162 game season.

However, getting to that .500 mark this deep into the season is meaningful for the fans, and it should be for the players as well. Spencer Nusbaum wrote an interesting piece about this the other day. His story had quotes from players and manager Blake Butera. 

There were mixed feelings about the concept. For some players, like Jacob Young, that .500 mark is very meaningful. Young talked about how close they have come to that milestone in the past couple years. However, it has eluded them, and eventually the team has faded down the stretch.

For newer members of the club, they are more committed to staying the course rather than focusing on the record. Blake Butera talked about how he cared more about what their record will be in August and September. He talked about how this team has bigger goals than to be .500 in the middle of May.

However, this team needs to get over the hump at some point. Sure, there are bigger fish to fry down the road, but getting to .500 is an important step in the process. For more process driven folks, it may not mean a ton, but it would mean a lot for this fanbase. Nats fans have not had a ton to cheer about since 2019, and getting to that big milestone would make them happy.

The Nats’ futility when they have a chance to get to .500 has gotten to the point where it is a running joke in the fanbase. People are making memes about it online and clowning the team for this dubious streak. It is just one of many things that has made Nats fans miserable over the past five years.

Getting to .500, especially against a rival like the O’s would be a big deal. It may not matter that much to Paul Toboni and Blake Butera, but it would mean a lot to the fans. Eventually they will break this streak, and this will be a .500 team. I trust the process and believe this team is heading in the right direction.

However, they need to get over that .500 hump at some point. Hopefully that happens sooner rather than later. In an ideal world, it would happen today. The Nats have Cade Cavalli on the mound against Chris Bassitt, who has struggled this year. On paper, the opportunity is there for the Nats. 

Fans are not going to believe until they see it get done. In the grand scheme of things, getting to .500 on May 16th does not matter that much. However, for this fanbase that has seen so much losing in recent years, it would be fun to feel like winners again, even if it is for a brief and fleeting moment.

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The Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves have been generous to Under backers this season, posting matching 18-24 O/U records.

My Red Sox vs. Braves predictions expect another low-scoring game in the cards Saturday night.

Let's take a closer look at my MLB picks for May 16.

Who will win Red Sox vs Braves today: Braves moneyline (-140)

Payton Tolle has struggled against teams hitting for high average, allowing three runs over five innings in both starts vs. Top-10 teams in average.

The Atlanta Braves lead the majors in BA, OPS, and SLG. They are loaded and have the ability to make life tough on Tolle.

He will need run support that he is unlikely to get. The Boston Red Sox rank 28th in wOBA, and 30th in ISO, against right-handed pitching

It'll be difficult for them to outperform the norms facing Bryce Elder, who owns an expected ERA of 2.91 and an xBA of .208.

COVERS INTEL: The Braves lead the league with 14 wins against left-handed starters, sporting a 14-3 record.

Red Sox vs Braves Over/Under pick: Under 8 (-115)

The best way to score runs in bulk is with the longball but hitting homers will be a difficult challenge for both teams in this matchup.

Elder has done a fantastic job of suppressing power, allowing 0.49 homers per nine innings while posting a remarkably strong 3.5% barrel rate. That puts him in the 90th percentile league-wide.

Tolle has conceded 0.72 homers per nine innings and ranks second among today's projected starting pitchers in soft contact rate.

It's difficult to square up either of these arms, and stringing together hit after hit is also a tall order given Elder and Tolle both rank 83rd percentile or higher in xBA.

Red Sox vs Braves odds

• Moneyline: Red Sox +120 | Braves -140
• Run line: Red Sox +1.5 (-170) | Braves -1.5 (+145)
• Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)

Red Sox vs Braves trend

The Braves have hit the Under in 23 of their last 35 home games (+12.2 units, 32% ROI) Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Braves.

How to watch Red Sox vs Braves and game info

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