Category: Baseball

San Diego Padres (32-24) at Washington Nationals (29-29), May 30, 2026, 1:05 p.m. PST

Watch: Padres.TV

Location: Nationals Park – Washington, DC

Listen: 97.3 The Fan

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First Pitch: 3:10 pm CDT

TV: Twins.TV

Radio: TIBN / WCCO 830 / The Wolf 102.9 FM / Audacy

YARR, and, genuinely, YAARGH and AARGH.

Pirate-themed sounds or reactions to 2026 Twins fandom? You decide. It’s not my call. The real truth of it is, it’s never been my call. Most of this is up to interpretation by you, the loyal reader. I actually have no true influence over what you do while OR after you ingest this article, and only limited influence over what you do before.

The Twins are squaring up with the Buccos again as their underwhelming final week of May continues. The suddenly-dependable-again Bailey Ober, now three starts removed from his home shutout of the Miami Marlins, has faced the Pittsburgh Pirates just once, in an 10th-inning victory in June of 2024. He’ll get the ball this afternoon, as the Twins try to wipe the slate after a crushing walk-off loss on Friday’s iPhone Channel opener.

Mitch Keller gets the ball for the Bucs, rocking his best ERA+ since his single All-Star campaign in eight seasons. That all changes today, of course, when he becomes the first pitcher in major-league history charged with 20 runs without recording an out. You won’t wanna miss this!

GO TWINS GO!

LOS ANGELES — The Dodgers will try to extend their best stretch of the season on Saturday against the Philadelphia Phillies at Dodger Stadium.

They’ve won 13 of their last 15 games, including each of their last six for their longest winning streak of the season. That followed a stretch of nine losses in 14 games.

“It just feels like we’re showing up and playing baseball. That’s how it felt when we were playing bad, and that’s how it feels when we’re playing good,” said third baseman Max Muncy after Friday’s win. “That’s the way you want it to be. You want to go out there and do your work every single day.”

Muncy homered in the series opener, one of four Dodgers home runs in the win. After hitting just 11 home runs in their previous 14 games at Dodger Stadium, the Dodgers have exploded for 13 home runs in the last three games. When the Dodgers hit at least three home runs, which they’ve done in each of the last three games, they are 11-0. When they hit at least two home runs, they are 19-1. MLB teams this season have a .706 win percentage when homering multiple times.

Couple that power and offense with a stingy pitching staff, that’s the recipe for 13 wins in 15 games. Dodgers pitchers — actual pitchers, not counting the Miguel Rojas ninth inning on Tuesday — have allowed only 26 runs in those 15 games.

The Dodgers are 10-2 when facing an opposing left-handed starting pitcher, the best such record in baseball this season. They have a tough task in Jesús Luzardo of the Phillies, who was a handful during last year’s National League Division Series. Luzardo struck out eight and walked only one in his 7 2/3 innings during the series, allowing three runs (two earned) on five hits. He pitched seven scoreless innings against the Dodgers last season in Philadelphia in April, then went seven innings again in a loss at Dodger Stadium, allowing four runs, including two home runs in September.

With Luzardo starting, expect Miguel Rojas to start at second base and the now-returned Santiago Espinal at third base. The Dodgers are being cautious with Muncy, who was hit by a pitch on his right wrist on May 22 in Milwaukee. Muncy missed three full games, played defense in the ninth inning but did not hit on Tuesday. He played Wednesday and Friday, with Thursday’s scheduled off day in between.

“It still hurts a little bit right now, but we’ll play through it. The barrel is dropping a bit right now, but that’s to be expected,” Muncy said Friday. “I’m trying to make some of those adjustments, and getting that kind of result tonight feels great.”

Saturday game info

• Teams: Dodgers vs. Phillies
• Ballpark: Dodger Stadium
• Time: 7:10 p.m.
• TV: SportsNet LA, MLB Network (out of market)
• Radio: AM 570 (English), KTNQ 1020 AM (Spanish)

If you asked me what the highlight of Tuesday’s 15-1 drubbing of the Royals was, I’d pick Cam Schlittler’s casual six-inning, one-run start. But a close second would be Amed Rosario’s four-hit, two-homer performance. Ok, it’s important to note that his second homer came against a position player on the mound, poor old Tyler Tolbert. However, there was nothing flukey about the rest of his performance; he was scalding balls all day, with all of his hits having exit velocities exceeding 100 mph. Seriously, just look at all this hard contact:

At first, I thought this was just another entry in the annals of “random backup infielder has great game offensively”. (You will always hold a place in my heart, Jayson Nix on April 7, 2013 against Justin Verlander.) But then I looked at Rosario’s FanGraphs page and did a double take – the man’s running a 130 wRC+!

Granted, it’s only been 31 games and 97 plate appearances, which is far from a representative sample size. Rosario has had 31-game stretches where he was even hotter in the past. If I had to choose between “Amed Rosario is a middle-of-the-order bat now” and “this is just a hot streak”, I’m choosing the latter every time.

However, there’s one crucial detail that gives me pause; the shape of his production is totally new. Rosario’s .261 ISO this year represents not only a career high for him, it’s the highest mark he’s run over any 31-game stretch in his career, ever. That seems to me like it’s a sign that something has changed with him.

There’s also the matter of his platoon splits. Rosario owns a career 121 wRC+ against southpaws and a 84 wRC+ against righties. So, surely his hot hitting so far this year is because he’s being shielded against same-handed pitching, right?

Not really, as it turns out. Of Rosario’s 97 plate appearances this year, 52 have come against lefties and 45 against righties – basically an even split. Of course, since lefties only make up less than a third of MLB pitching, having only 50% of your plate appearances come against righties means that you’re being platooned. However, the fact remains that about half of Rosario’s PAs have come against righties this year. His wRC+ against them? It’s the exact same as his line against left-handers – 130. Uh, I thought he was supposed to be a platoon bat?

This level of performance against righties is unprecedented for Rosario. Unfortunately, FanGraphs’ Player Graphs function doesn’t support L/R splits for wRC+, but for our purposes wOBA works just fine. See if you can spot the year that is unlike all the others in this graph:

So, Rosario is hitting for more power than ever, and he’s hitting righties better than ever. How is he doing it?

The first question is easier to answer: Rosario is swinging the bat harder than ever. That seems to have something to do with his power surge, doesn’t it? Case in point: StatCast’s bat tracking metrics go back to 2023. That year, Rosario’s fast swing rate – defined as the percentage of swings at 75 mph or faster – was 15.2%. In 2024, it was 16.7%. In 2025, it was 29.9%, which was already a pretty big increase.

This year, it’s 44.0%.

Over the course of four seasons, Rosario’s gone from swinging hard about as often as Luis Rengifo to Bryce Harper. I guess that’ll help you hit the ball harder. But what about his disappeared platoon splits? Does swinging faster more often automatically make you a more well-rounded batter? I, uh, have some doubts about that.

Ultimately, I can’t point to a clear-cut reason as to why Rosario is suddenly hitting righties as well as he hits lefties this year. I do, however, have a theory. After many hours of grueling research (read: I floated this topic on the PSA slack and Peter gave me this link), I happened upon this tweet from Driveline Baseball:

Don’t be fooled by the formatting of the twee. The most revealing video, at least in my mind, isn’t the big one on the left but the bottom right one, showing Rosario’s 2025 (blue) and 2026 (red) swing trajectories from various angles. In particular, pay close attention to the bird’s-eye view graphic. Notice how Rosario’s 2026 bat path starts off at a markedly lesser angle than its 2025 counterpart, and remains close to parallel to the front of home plate throughout its voyage through the strike zone? My theory is that this revamped bat path has allowed Rosario to perform well against pitches from right-handers which break away from him, alleviating his platoon splits.

It has been found by past baseball research that pitches that break away from same-handed hitters result in the largest platoon splits. It seems that righty pitchers have taken this to heart when facing Rosario; they’ve fed him more and more breaking balls in recent years, with more gloveside horizontal movement.

How do you combat this? Well, one way, it seems to me, might be to “flatten” your bat path as Rosario is doing in 2026 – trying to keep the barrel of the bat as parallel to the front of home plate as long as possible. This would increase your chances of making better contact with, say, sliders spinning away from you, especially if you’re able to catch them out in front of the plate. Lo and behold: it’s still an extremely small sample size, but Rosario’s xwOBACON against breaking pitches from right-handers is by far the highest of his career.

Can Rosario sustain this level of performance going forward? I can’t say for certain. But it’s at least very encouraging that there seems to be real, tangible changes in his approach that are fueling his early-season performance. Keep an eye out for Amed Rosario – he might be playing a bigger role in this Yankees lineup in the coming weeks.

This is the stuff that other teams do that I make fun of, but the Jays, after deciding that Austin Voth was the guy that could be the bulk guy yesterday, and when he has a bad game, he gets DFAed. If you believed in him, you wouldn’t let one game change your mind.

Hayden Juenger has been added to the roster.

Juenger has a 3.15 ERA in 17 games, 20 innings, 22 hits, 8 walks and 23 strikeouts. Hayden was on our ‘Just Missed Out’ list on the Prospects list this year. Tom wrote:

Hayden Juenger was a sixth round pick back in ‘21. He popped onto lists by jumping all the way to AAA in his first full pro season, working as a multi-inning reliever. Things have stalled there, though. He gets some strikeouts, but walks too many and generally hasn’t found the consistency he needs to join the major league staff. He deserves a nod here because, with a nice rising fastball that sits 94, a promising cutter and a good change-up he has the repertoire to work as an MLB long reliever. So far this season he’s shelved his slider and emphasized the cutter, which has helped him avoid walks so far.

Welcome Hayden.

Today’s lineup:

Texas Rangers lineup for May 30, 2026 against the Kansas City Royals: starting pitchers are Kumar Rocker for the Rangers and Seth Lugo for the Royals.

Texas scored a lot of runs yesterday and won a game. They will try to do that again today.

The lineup:

Pederson — DH

Jung — 3B

Nimmo — RF

Burger — 1B

Duran — SS

Osuna — LF

Jansen — C

Lopez — 2B

Helman — CF

3:05 p.m. Central start time. Rangers are -119 favorites.

Looking to bring in a fresh bullpen arm prior to Saturday afternoon's game against the Marlins, the Mets decided to option right-hander Tobias Myers down to the minors. 

The decision was a tough one with Myers being such a valuable piece for this pitching staff, but having an option remaining made him the odd man out this time around. 

“Not an easy decision given how important he’s been,” manager Carlos Mendoza said. “Opener, multi-inning guy, high-leverage, can get the last three outs -- it’s just the situation we were in pitching-wise heading into today’s game.

“He’s one of the guys with an option, the other two are available today -- we told him you’re going to be back here soon and he understood, obviously not happy about it, but it’s the situation we’re in and he’ll be back here.”

The versatile reliever has hit a bit of a rough patch on the mound of late as well, giving up runs in five of his last seven appearances to bring his ERA to 4.05 for the season. 

Myers will look to turn things around in Triple-A, though, on more of a regulated program.

“It’s just going to be more scripted,” Mendoza said. “Where if you’re going to go and throw 35-45 pitches, then he’s able to get the three or four days after that, something that at this level with the competition you aren’t able to do.

“Then once his 15 days are up and we have to make that decision, he can either go and continue to get stretched out or go back into the role we’ve been using him in -- he’s very versatile and an important player for our team.”

Yesterday was an annoying baseball day. The Cubs lost to the Cardinals after hitting a three-run homer in the first inning. They were one run short of tying the game in the ninth, because the BABIP gods were apparently a little annoyed at Nico Hoerner and Phil Maton keeps throwing in relatively close games for #reasons. Shōta Imanaga decided to keep pace with Jameson Taillon on the home run front, surrendering two of his own today. Including a long fly ball to former Cub Nelson Velázquez in his first MLB at bat since 2024 and you know what? Good for Nelson [VIDEO]:

But the loss was maybe the least annoying Cubs adjacent thing Friday because we also learned that Brewers pitcher Abner Uribe would be suspended a game after a… shall we say, colorful, celebration in the direction of the Cardinals dugout:

I really went back and forth on whether I should show that celebration. Ultimately, I decided I should not. It’s easily searchable, most of you have probably already seen it. I don’t have a huge problem with it, but I know enough people do that I am not going to thrust that onto people without warning. In fact, it’s very similar to an editorial decision I made on this very site last week when I opted not to share video of the incident between Pete Crow-Armstrong and a White Sox fan in the outfield at the recent Crosstown Classic. As I said at the time:

The video of the exchange is uncomfortable viewing and it seemed like an ill-advised engagement with a fan from my vantage point. The full picture matters here: a female White Sox fan began booing Crow-Armstrong and yelling “you suck” when he was just feet away after he missed a potential highlight-reel catch, and PCA responded with a profane and frankly crude verbal comeback that he acknowledged immediately was indefensible in terms of word choice. Crow-Armstrong apologized Monday for his language, saying he didn’t think “any of the women in my life would think I would say those kinds of words regularly” and adding that he was bothered by the idea of young kids seeing the exchange on social media. That’s a start, but honestly, it’s pretty clear he does use those words to at least some women who aren’t in his life, and that’s a double standard that is more than a little troubling.

In that piece, I noted that the line between what PCA did towards the fan wasn’t that far away from other fan interactions that have resulted in suspensions. I also shared, cautiously, that I thought MLB had probably gotten it right. What PCA did was distasteful and indefensible, but a fine rather than a suspension seemed appropriate, although reasonable people clearly may disagree. In the poll attached to that earlier article, the vote was split about 50/50 between suspension and not for PCA.

I’m just not sure how whatever governing body that made the decision to fine PCA looked at what Uribe did towards another team (not the fans) and finds that to be worthy of a suspension rather than a fine. If anything, Uribe’s gesture, while crude, seems squarely within behavior that is also actively being celebrated in the game when the Giants outfield does it.

I’m sure there is some explanation forthcoming, but honestly, even the potential explanations feel a big cringy as I consider them. For example, it was widely reported that Brewers manager Pat Murphy was visibly annoyed with Uribe and called the situation unacceptable. That’s a different public-facing reaction than what Cubs manager Craig Counsell said regarding PCA.

I’m sure some fans will read this and groan internally. I’ll be honest, I wish we weren’t talking about this even anymore too. But I also think it’s important to call out decisions that seem unfair on their face, even when my favorite team got the better end of the deal.

Regardless of any explanation that might be forthcoming, the discrepancy in punishment here is honestly not a great look for a league that presumably would like the punishments they mete out to players appear to be equitable, measured and fair.

Detroit Tigers (22-36) vs. Chicago White Sox (30-27)

Time/Place: 2:10 p.m., Rate Field
SB Nation Site: South Side Sox
Media: Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network
Pitching Matchup:Game 59: LHP Framber Valdez (2-3, 4.28 ERA) vs. LHP Anthony Kay (4-1, 3.96 ERA)

The Braves have a chance to win their series against a solid Reds team in Cincy with a win tonight and give them a chance for another Sunday sweep.

Martin Perez takes the mound for Atlanta and he is posting near-career-best numbers through 46.2 innings, with strikeout and walk rates that near his career highs and a 3.80 xFIP to pair nicely with his 3.83 FIP at the age of 35. He’s chucking a 5 pitch mix of relatively slow pitches that generally have decent movement and it’s getting the job done for that fifth starter spot. This is a dangerous ballpark for pitchers though, ranking as a top 5 offense-friendly ballpark and especially susceptible to home runs.

The Reds will start veteran Brady Singer, who is having his worst major league season so far this year, with a 6.52 FIP and 4.46 xFIP on 46.0 innings. Given his home ballpark, I would trust xFIP to be more accurately representative than FIP, but that would still be a career-worst xFIP. It’s not hard to see why, as his fastball velocity is down nearly a full MPH from last season and his strikeouts have cratered to by far a career low rate of 6.65 per 9 innings. At only 29, Singer may be hitting the cliff early or this may be a blip on an overall solid mid-rotation starter career. Let’s hope this swoon lasts at least one more game and Atlanta can take advantage. Singer relies heavily on his sinker and slider, with a sweeper, cutter, and four-seamer sprinkled in. All of his pitches have been hit varying degrees of hard this year, but he does still have good extension and historically his slider has been fairly effective. What he is doing well this season is limiting walks, so the Braves should look for all of those pitches he’s throwing in the strike zone and look to hit them hard, particularly the sinkers. If they can do that, they should find success against Singer in this small ballpark.

Game Info

Game Time: Saturday, May 30th, 7:15 pm EDT

Location: Great American Ball Park, , Cincinnati, OH

Watch: FOX

Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

Last night’s victory for the Sox was certainly exciting, what with tying the game in the ninth on a misplayed squeeze bunt and then winning on a walk-off homer in the 10th. But it was also pyrrhic, since Munetaka Murakami injured a hammie trying to beat out a double play throw in the third inning and wound up on the IL.

Murakami is expected to be out four to six weeks, so the Sox called up Jacob Gonzalez, who seems to have remembered how to hit and has been smashing the ball in Charlotte. With Murakami out, Gonzalez is expected to take over at short, with Colson Montgomery moving to third and last night’s hero, Miguel Vargas, shifting to first. That will wait at least a day, because Gonzalez isn’t in today’s starting lineup.

The pitching matchup is a battle of veteran lefties, with Anthony Kay going for the Sox and Framber Valdez for the Tigers. Valdez is having by far his worst season since 2019, with a 4.28 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, but he was sharp last time out, holding the Orioles to two hits and one run over six innings. He’ll face a Sox lineup that has historically hit him well, especially Edgar Quero (5-for-6 with four RBIs).

Kay faces a Detroit team with an injured list that is probably the best team in the AL Central, but an active list that is the worst, with four of today’s starters hitting worse than .200 and two more barely better. Kay has had an excellent May, giving up only six earned runs in 27 1/3 innings over five starts.

First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. Central on a perfect baseball day, with partly sunny skies, temps in the mid-sixties, and wind blowing left to right with gusts to 21 mph to keep things interesting. Usual broadcast suspects.

Esmerlyn Valdez may have had a short first stint in the Major Leagues, but he showed signs of what could be to come for the Pirates outfield.

Valdez made his MLB debut on May 22 against the Toronto Blue Jays and reached base on a walk.

He didn’t record his first career hit until two days later, notching it in style.

The 22-year-old power hitter smashed his first-career home run on Sunday, a two-run shot off Chase Lee. Valdez displayed opposite field power and helped the Bucs to a 4-1 victory and salvaged one game in the three-game set.

Valdez homered again two days later against the Chicago Cubs, his first long ball at PNC Park. 

That home run was even more impressive, taking Jordan Wicks deep to the Cubs’ bullpen in the first inning. 

Valdez became the seventh Pirate in the Modern Era (since 1901) to hit two home runs in their first four career games.

The last to do so? Former first-rounder and top prospect Austin Meadows in 2018, who was dealt at the trade deadline to Tampa Bay in a package for pitcher Chris Archer.

Meadows was the first to achieve the feat since Dick Stuart in 1958. Valdez joined Meadows, Stuart, RC Stevens (1958), Dino Restelli (1949), Wally Westlake (1947), and Walter Mueller (1922), per Luke Henne of Pirates PR.

Valdez was sent back to Triple-A Indianapolis on Thursday. With Konnor Griffin dealing with a low-grade muscle strain in his forearm, the Pirates recalled infielder Tyler Callihan and demoted Valdez to create room on the roster.

In 16 at-bats, Valdez only hit .125. He earned two home runs and five RBIs in a small sample and displayed the immense power he has in his frame.

Valdez hit 10 doubles and 10 home runs in the minor leagues before being recalled.

The No. 9 overall prospect in the Pirates system also has pro experience playing at first base.

This is likely not the last we hear of Valdez this season, and his rapid rise through the minors. 

Pittsburgh continues to fight through a tough NL Central race, with all five teams over .500 on Saturday. 

If you enjoy playing Immaculate Grid, well, the Mets really are the team for you. The Mets have optioned right-handed pitcher Tobias Myers, who’s worked out of the bullpen and as an opener for them since joining the team alongside Freddy Peralta, to Triple-A Syracuse. And they’ve called up left-handed pitcher Cionel Pérez, yet another fringe major league arm, to take his place on the active roster.

To call up Pérez, the Mets had to clear a spot on the 40-man roster, and they’ve designated fellow left-handed reliever Anderson Severino for assignment.

As has been the case with plenty of other relievers in the David Stearns era, you figure Pérez isn’t long for the major league roster. In 16.0 innings with the Nationals this year, he has a 6.19 ERA with an awful 15.1 percent walk rate and more walks than strikeouts. Having spent most of this season with the Washington organization, he’s put up a 2.57 ERA in six appearances with Syracuse since joining the Mets, but his 16.1 percent walk rate in that limited sample in the minors is even worse than what he had done in the big leagues.

Myers, meanwhile, has been highlighted as a significant addition in the aforementioned trade with the Brewers that was headlined by Peralta. But it’s been a relatively rough go of it for him in his first 20 appearances as a Met, as he has a 4.05 ERA and a 4.47 FIP, both of which are worse than his career norms.

Last but not least, Severino has a 1.31 ERA and a 3.31 FIP in 20.2 innings with Syracuse this season. His only major league experience came in 2022 with the White Sox, and before this season, the 31-year-old has spent the entirety of his professional career in the Yankees and White Sox organizations.

This week, the MLB Player’s Association and the league submitted their preliminary proposals to formally kick off the much-anticipated (much-dreaded?) collective bargaining agreement negotiations. Not surprisingly, this has sparked a lot of discussion, as fans dissect not only the proposals themselves, but the statements issued by both sides in response to the other’s proposal.

Already, a lot of digital ink has been spilled about the two proposals, highlighting the vast distance between the two sides. What I want to do instead, though, is not to talk about these pitches themselves, but rather how they compare to the original proposals that kickstarted the negotiations five years ago.

In both years, the Player’s Association began the negotiations. Five years ago, in May 2021, the MLBPA submitted their initial proposal to the league. While the exact proposal was never published, Evan Drellich reported the following later that year:

But the union has proposed that players become eligible for arbitration after two years, instead of three. It also has again proposed a change to draft order, increases in the minimum salary, raises in the CBT, changes to revenue sharing, changes to the way service time is calculated, and bonuses for players who have yet to reach arbitration. Under certain circumstances, some players would be able to reach free agency sooner than six years, as well.

This time around, we have a bit more specifics (this list has been compiled from The Athletic’s and MLB Trade Rumors’ posts on the subject):

• changing revenue sharing that guarantees small market teams receive $240 million in revenue, but simultaneously incentivizes winning by offering financial bonuses for on-the-field success
• increasing the first level of the luxury tax, which in essence serves as a soft cap, to $300 million, and eliminating non-monetary penalties for going over
• creating a competitive integrity tax, set at $150 million, that in essence serves as a soft floor
• doubling the minimum salary to $1.5 million
• setting a minimum salary for arbitration-eligible players at $3 million
• increasing the pre-arbitration pool from $50 million to $180 million
• allowing players to hit free agency at the age of 30 if they have five years of service time; teams would be able to get a sixth year at the current qualifying offer, in a manner similar to the NFL’s franchise tag
• doubling the number of players who receive Super-Two status
• eliminating the qualifying offer

Conceptually, nothing has changed from the last go-round — which shouldn’t be too much of a surprise, considering the fact that the last round of CBA negotiations ended up primarily making minor tweaks to the system.

On the other hand, the league has, for the second round of negotiations in a row, proposed to completely overhaul the league’s financial system. In the same article from September 2021 posted quoted above, Drellich outlined the league’s initial proposal, which was never formally published, but whose details were leaked to the press:

The league proposed to effectively send the luxury-tax threshold in the other direction, to $180 million; to increase the penalties for exceeding it as well; but to also implement a soft floor, a penalty for teams who do not spend at least $100 million. The league also proposed to eliminate salary arbitration in favor of a predetermined pool of money to be distributed to players. Under MLB’s proposal, players would become free agents once they hit age 29 1/2, which might help some players who would otherwise have become free agents later, but hurt the best players who presumably would, under the current system, become free agents younger. (Players would also be walking out into a market where teams might be less inclined to spend than they are now, because the CBT threshold would be lower and the penalties for exceeding it would be higher.) The league this year also proposed that a team could not pick in the top five of the draft three years in a row, and has again has proposed an international draft.

Unlike the players’ union, the league did not publish their initial proposal, but according to The Athletic and MLB Trade Rumors, it looks something like this:

• a 50/50 split of the revenue between the league and the players (player salaries would be increased/shrunk proportionally depending on end-of-year revenues)
• a salary cap set at $245 million, with a floor set at $171 million
• the centralization of local broadcast revenue, distributed equally among teams
• no apparent changes to free agency, service time, or other related issues

The details may differ, but in the end, the league is fighting for the exact same thing they were five years ago: the elimination of the free market and the lowering of salaries, using competitive balance as a cover. There are two big differences, though. First of all, the league is dropping the charade and asking for a hard cap, instead of proposing prohibitively intense luxury tax penalties designed to let it serve as a de facto hard cap while technically being a soft cap. Second, and arguably more interesting, is the fact that the owners made a proposal at all.

Five years ago, the players submitted their initial proposal in May, while the league waited until August. The MLBA then followed up after the World Series, and while the two sides did meet a few times over the month of November, the league not only never budged from its initial proposal, but inserted last-minute demands designed to guarantee that the CBA would expire without a deal. Ultimately, the details didn’t really matter: the league wanted a lockout, and so they engaged in delaying tactics, because they thought they could break the power of the union. This time around, though, the league has taken more of the initiative, which tells me that they would like to avoid a lockout.

Over the next six months, we’re certainly going to have more detailed analyses of the CBA negotiations as they go on. For now, though, we’re pretty much back to where we started in May 2021 — just with a tiny bit more urgency from the owners. Where will we end up? Only time will tell.

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Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Jesus Sanchez has been on fire at the plate, and the books haven’t fully adjusted to his recent production.

With the Baltimore Orioles sending Brandon Young to the mound, Sanchez is positioned to extend his hitting streak and cash his hits prop once again, as my Blue Jays vs. Orioles predictions explain.

Read on for my top MLB picks for Saturday, May 30.

Blue Jays vs Orioles predictions

Blue Jays vs Orioles best bet: Jesus Sanchez Over 0.5 hits (-155)

The betting market still hasn’t adjusted to Jesus Sanchez’s consistency at the plate over the last few weeks, making his hits market mispriced in comparison to his teammates'.

I’d bet this prop to -170. 

He leads the Toronto Blue Jays with a 201 wRC+ and a 1.080 OPS over his last 18 games, while consistently eclipsing his hits total in 14 of the 18 outings.

Sanchez's hitting profile matches up well to Baltimore Orioles starter Brandon Young, who’s a contact pitcher that relies on his four-seam fastball to get lefties out. The Jays outfielder is crushing the fastball, with a .500 average over this 18 game stretch.

Additionally, Sanchez has owned Young throughout their respective careers, going 4-for-9 against him with a 1.000 OPS. 

COVERS INTEL: Sanchez leads Toronto with a 9.4% solid-contact rate, while Young ranks among the Orioles’ worst starters at limiting quality contact.

Blue Jays vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)

Young pitches to contact to get his outs and only owns a lowly 16% strikeout rating, while ranking in the 22nd percentile in whiff rate. Give me Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to go Under 0.5 strikeouts tonight.

He’s seeing the ball well and has struck out only twice in his last eight games. 

I’ll also bank on Trey Yesavage having another efficient outing. He is nearly unhittable, ranking in the 99th percentile in opponent xBA, while owning a 2.00 xERA.

He’s also eclipsed this total in three straight starts now that he’s worked up to his regular pitch count. 

Blue Jays vs Orioles SGP

• Jesus Sanchez Over 0.5 hits
• Trey Yesavage Over 17.5 outs
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 strikeouts

Blue Jays vs Orioles home run pick: Jesus Sanchez (+475)

Brandon Young has been hit hard this year, allowing a 40% hard-hit rate, but he’s kept the ball in the yard, surrendering just five home runs. 

We’ll make this a half-unit wager. 

Young’s fastball has accounted for three of the five home runs he’s allowed this season. Sanchez has been destroying the four-seamer lately with an .813 SLG over his last 18-games. 

Blue Jays vs Orioles odds

• Moneyline: Toronto -122 | Baltimore +104
• Run line: Toronto -1.5 | Baltimore +1.5
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Blue Jays vs Orioles trend

The Blue Jays have covered the run line in 13 of their last 17 games (+11.10 Units / 49% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Orioles.

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