Category: Baseball

Suffice it to say it’s been an up-and-down start to Adley Rutschman’s Red Sox career, which began when he was still recovering from an injury. Now, after starting to find himself at the plate with his new team, he’s found himself on the shelf again, missing the past two games with an elbow injury he suffered on a swing. Luckily, the team doesn’t sound too concerned about it at this point (I know, I know…) “He took a really aggressive swing,” Chad Tracy said. “He kind of hyperextended his elbow. Nothing to be alarmed about. Just felt like I don’t want to make that worse.” Rutschman expects to be back in the lineup this weekend against the Yankees. (Perla Paredes, MLB.com)

Rutschman isn’t the only Sox player who expects to be playing against the Yankees. Both Roman Anthony and Trevor Story are being vocal about getting back into the lineup during the upcoming series. “Overall, feeling really good,” said Story. “I’m on [time with] the barrel, just a touch off [on squaring pitches]. [It’s] to be expected. I think more than the results, it’s more about how I’m feeling and kind of dictating the at-bat. And I’m in a good spot there. So, next day or two, hit some barrels and feel good about [returning].” (Alex Speier, Boston Globe)

Anthony will be particularly happy to be back on the field given all the noise that’s surrounded his rehab, noise which has included whispers about both his social life and his commitment to get back on the field. Anthony is strongly pushing back against all of it and, reading between the lines, he seems a little annoyed with the Red Sox medical staff. “I did everything I could,” he said. “I thought I made that clear. I took all the (injections) I could, as soon as I could. I tried to do everything to get back on the field. Unfortunately, maybe we pushed too hard. Every time I tried to do that, it may have set me back a little bit. But at the same time, I saw three outside doctors that told me this was a three-month injury. After it all, it took right about that much.”

As for his social life, he views it as a non-issue: “I won’t really talk on that because it’s not even something that’s relevant and it hasn’t been relevant in our clubhouse. It’s never been a problem and it’s never really even been a thing. I prioritize getting to bed and doing everything I can to show up and give it all to my teammates and to the fans. I think when things aren’t going your way and you’re a 22-year-old kid that does anything other than just goes home and goes straight to bed, people have something to say.” (Chris Cotillo, MassLive)

There’s been a lot of talk about what roster dominoes will fall when Story, Anthony, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa do conclude their rehabs. But as of now, Tracy isn’t guaranteeing playing time to anyone. “I don’t foresee a scenario where we get new players here, and I’m just going to not play the guys [who have been playing],” Tracy said “We’re getting to the point of the season where we have a month left. It’s about trying to win every single game. What gives us the best chance that night’s game to do that? This is not necessarily the point of the season where it’s like we’re going to work through it. We’ve got to go out there and try to win the game — and that’s with whoever’s available that night to start.” (Peter Abraham, Boston Globe)

And things could get even more complicated if Curtis Mead returns, which is apparently possible, as his hard cast was removed this week. “I know that’s just step one and there’s still a good bit of time here after this comes off and what he’s got to do just to get it strong enough to even begin baseball activities,” Tracy said. “So [there’s] hope, but we’ve still got to temper that hope and just see if everything goes well with the next steps.” (Conor Ryan, Boston.com)

Tracy won’t have any room fitting Garrett Whitlock back into the bullpen, though. Whitlock struck out Caleb Durbin and Eli White before yesterday’s game and is on track to return imminently. “Body felt good, arm felt good. So everything you want,” he said. (Chrisopher Smith, MassLive)

To sleep, aye, perchance to dream of a World Series title, there’s the rub.

Since the August 3rd trade deadline, Cleveland has made a solid progression as an offense. They went from the 27th-ranked offense in MLB with a 92 wRC+ and a slashline of .231/.310/.370 to the tenth-ranked offense in MLB at 103 wRC+ with a slashline of .263/.340/.374. You can see, of course, the issue with the growth; the Guardians’ slugging percentage has barely moved as they remain one of the worst teams in MLB at hitting home runs (29th-ranked in homers for the season and for the month of August so far).

Far be it from me to look a gift horse in the mouth: I am very happy with the advancements the team made at the deadline acquiring Nathaniel Lowe and Jo Adell, as well as promoting Angel Genao. I am thrilled that Steven Kwan has become the third best hitter in baseball over the past two months and optimistic about Jose Ramirez’s chances of regaining consistent doubles power (at least) as his surgically-repaired hand continues to gain strength. Also, Chase DeLauter and Travis Bazzana SHOULD find their way to a few more homers as they continue to adjust to the league in their rookie seasons (provided DeLauter can remain healthy).

But, there’s little doubt the Guardians could use some more pop in their lineup if they really want to make a run to end the season and, then, to aim for a pennant. Good news – the Columbus Clippers lead all of minor league baseball in home runs. Yes, Columbus plays in a bandbox. Yes, Triple-A pitching is horrible. But, there are some legitimate power threats on the Guardians’ Triple-A team. Should one or more of these sluggers be added to the major league team – perhaps in time for tomorrow’s homestand against the Royals?

The most attractive candidates are:

Ralphy Velazquez, 21 years old, LHH, 1B/LF – 133 wRC+, .275 ISO, .970 OPS vs. RHP/.840 OPS vs. LHP, .1.061 OPS at Columbus, .800 OPS away.

Cooper Ingle, 24 years old, LHH, C/LF/DH – 154 wRC+, .244 ISO, 1.021 vs. RHP/.534 OPS vs. LHP, 1.009 OPS at Columbus/.854 OPS away

Kody Huff, 25 years old, RHH, C/1B – 130 wRC+, .247 ISO, .893 OPS vs. RHP/.842 vs. LHP, .896 at Columbus/868 away.

Milan Tolentino, 24 years old, LHH, UIF – 108 wRC+, .231 ISO, .811 OPS vs. RHP/.776 vs. LHP, .780 at Columbus/.826 OPS away

I think it’s probably helpful to look at how these players have been handling specific pitches over the past two months as they’ve been developing. So, here’s their wOBA/xwOBA vs. all fastballs since 7/1:

Velazquez: .544/.447
Ingle: .504/.407
Huff: .312/.272
Tolentino: .329/.349

And wOBA/xwOBA vs. breaking balls over the same time period:

Velazquez: .274/.341
Ingle: .313/.296
Huff: .560/.446
Tolentino: .343/.324

Finally, wOBA/xwOBA vs. offspeed pitches during the same time period:

Velazquez: .319/.310
Ingle: .301/.303
Huff: .427/.352
Tolentino: .443/.265

We have discussed the dilemma for the Guardians regarding Ralphy. If they call him up, they will miss out on his continued development in 2027 if there is a lockout that costs them major league games. Certainly, Chris Antonetti is far more qualified than I am to judge on how likely that outcome should be considered. I do not believe, in any case, it is a compelling argument against calling Velazquez up IF he can help the team. And, I think, looking at the numbers above, there is a decent chance Ralphy could help the team… BUT he will need consistent, almost daily, at-bats and they should be prepared for the usual adjustment period. Given DeLauter’s hamstring troubles, one would have to assume Chase will mostly be limited to the DH role, meaning Ralphy will have to be comfortable playing left field with Kwan in center and Adell in right field. Ralphy would then replace either Angel Martinez or Petey Halpin, depending on team’s comfort level with Martinez in centerfield.

Is Velazquez ready for full-time left field reps? Only the team can hazard a guess on this. We know Cooper Ingle wasn’t ready on his call-up. Is the team capable of enduring what will likely be a 3-weekish adjustment period for Velazquez to acclimate himself to big league pitching in hopes he will be ready to crush pitches in time for the end of the season/playoffs? We should be very excited about Ralphy’s numbers given his age at Triple-A. This is very likely to be a middle-of-the-order hitter when he is big league ready… but the chances are fairly slim that he is currently ready given his age. Now, there is a chance he is making the adjustments currently to demonstrate that he IS ready for the challenge, seeing breaking balls and offspeed well-enough to get challenge by the best versions of those pitches. But, this is no sure thing. Do you take the risk he may help now… or carefully do whatever you can to give him the best shot at being ready to help in 2027? That’s the quandry before the Guardians’ front office right now and I cannot say that I know the solution with any certainty.

As for the other options, Tolentino is a great depth option to have. Should (God-forbid) Brayan Rocchio, Bazzana or Genao get hurt, I think Tolentino should be the next player called up. He has potential to provide some pop (and a lot of strikeouts) while playing great defense. But, he is a utility player at best. Personally, I would like to see Kody Huff replace David Fry on the roster, but I can understand why the team continues to believe Fry has a better chance of providing something in that bench role. Huff’s struggles against fastballs are likely a fatal flaw if he doesn’t figure something out there, even though a role as a backup catcher role would still be within reach.

Finally, Ingle still shows the signs of being a hitter who needs the challenge of big league opportunities. The problems with him revolve around positional fit and platoon issues. The team clearly doesn’t trust that he’s a big league-quality catcher (and the position is ably manned by Patrick Bailey and Austin Hedges, currently) and we saw his defense in left-field earlier – alarming and undesirable! Has he improved enough in left field to earn another look? I cannot claim to know the answer, but I would guess it is probably “no.” I think Ingle might be a guy to get DH/LF/3rd Catcher reps during September call-ups, if anything, but I’m beginning to wonder if he ends up being a trade chip in the offseason.

The Guardians could look at acquiring Eugenio Suarez, recently put on waivers by the Reds. Suarez has a .248 ISO since July 1st with 11 homers. As a right-handed slugger, Suarez could probably play the Fry/Hoskins role (without being able to play outfield as Fry can) better than what we could hope Huff could play that role (again, without outfield abilities). I certainly would not oppose that move, but I’m also not desperate for the team to make it given the volatility of Suarez’s value due to his age and positional limitations.

It will be interesting to see what the Guardians do – or DON’T do – over the next few weeks to try to find some more slugging for their improved lineup. Is it hoping for natural development/positive regression? Is it a September call-up of a guy like Cooper Ingle? Is it finding a cast-off vet like Suarez, capable of providing a little punch? Or, is it something a little more daring in the much anticitpated call-up of Ralphy Velazquez? Stay tuned to find out.

One is the number. What number, you may ask? One win that the Dodgers look for before leaving Atlanta? One-run losses as the theme of this series against the Braves? One unequivocally poor performance in a season’s worth of games for Chris Sale, who in all but one of his 23 starts this season has allowed no more than three earned runs? There are ones all over the place.

For as dominant as Sale has been in 2026, the veteran southpaw has also gone through an issue in that the Braves’ record in his starts doesn’t accurately reflect his level of dominance. It’s not even entirely a run support issue given that Atlanta averages a little over 5 runs per game in his starts but more of a distribution problem. Despite the Braves’ outstanding campaign, they’ve too often failed to capitalize on dominant starts by their ace, possessing only a 13-10 record when Sale takes the mound. One of those losses came against the Dodgers when these two clubs last met in early May. The former Cy Young winner did his usual thing with seven quality innings, but the Braves offense had no answers to Emmet Sheehan and the Dodgers’ bullpen in a 3-1 loss.

In fact, Sale comes into this game having pitched three straight quality starts in August only to lose each one of them as the Braves offense has let him down with just five runs across three games. Meanwhile, the Dodgers starter, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, relishes the challenge of pitching on the road against a Braves offense with far superior numbers at home (.760 OPS at home and .690 away). Yamamoto comes into this game having helped the Dodgers to a win in each of his last six starts away from home.

Thursday game info

• Teams: Dodgers at Braves
• Stadium: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Time: 4:15 p.m. PT
• TV: SportsNet LA, FS1 (National)
• Radio: AM 570 (English), KTNQ 1020 (Spanish)

It’s been 35 years since the 1991 Atlanta Braves changed the trajectory of the franchise with an improbable run to the World Series and a classic encounter with the Minnesota Twins. 

Though Atlanta came up short in that seven-game showdown, that season launched a sustained run of success for the team and introduced a new generation of Braves that would star throughout the decade.

Steve Avery was anything but a household name when he entered the 1991 season but found himself throwing some of the most important games in franchise history by year’s end.

The third overall selection in the 1988 draft out of Taylor, Michigan, Avery made it to the big leagues in roughly two years. He took his lumps as a 20-year-old rookie in 1990, finishing 3-11 with a 5.64 ERA in 20 starts for Atlanta following his June promotion.

With the first full season of his major league career ahead of him in 1991, Avery’s spring training goals mirrored the Braves as a whole – just find ways to improve.

“I was just hoping to get better,” Avery said. “I was 3-11 as a rookie, but I was always confident. I wasn’t really questioning that I would get better, but if you haven’t felt the success at that level, then it makes you wonder a little bit. I just wanted to get off to a good start in spring training and kind of took that a little more serious.”

One of the major factors working in Avery’s favor was the unwavering support of manager Bobby Cox. Even though Avery struggled mightily as a rookie, Cox believed the young lefty was primed for a breakout season and insisted Avery be included on Atlanta’s opening day roster.

That opinion was not universal, however. Newly hired general manager John Schuerholz was not convinced. One look at the 1990 numbers certainly supports Schuerholz’s assessment, but Cox went to bat for Avery to break camp with the Braves and Schuerholz reconsidered.

“I’m sure there was talk about me not even making the team, going to Triple-A, and trying to get stronger or better,” Avery said. “Bobby fought for me to stay. He actually told me that after I retired and I came back to spring training a couple of times. He said Schuerholz was in favor of sending me back down and Bobby just told him, “No.” I mean, that’s just the kind of person he was, the kind of manager he was. He had confidence in you and wasn’t afraid to take chances, too.”

The gambit by Cox paid off and it did not take Avery long to prove his worth to the Braves as the 1991 season got underway.

Atlanta won eight of Avery’s first 10 starts as he compiled a 6-2 record with a 3.19 ERA in 59 1/3 innings. The Braves raced out to a 25-19 start and trailed the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers by just a half-game in the old National League West standings after two months.

Strong starting pitching was the foundation for the Atlanta’s new-found success.

Tom Glavine was putting together what would turn into a Cy Young Award campaign, while Avery and veteran Charlie Liebrandt were supplying quality innings. The biggest issue for the rotation was the early struggles of John Smoltz, who went 2-11 in the first half before rediscovering his form down the stretch.

While the Braves enjoyed their best start in nearly a decade, June tested their mettle in ways many of the younger players had yet to experience. It was with those challenges in mind that new Atlanta signed several veterans to strengthen the roster over the winter.

Longtime St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Terry Pendleton brought Gold Glove excellence to the hot corner while first baseman Sid Bream and slick-fielding shortstop Rafael Belliard were signed away from the Pittsburgh Pirates to help shore up the infield defense.

“The leadership was Sid and Terry,” Avery said. “Those guys came over and just changed the way our defense played. We weren’t nearly as strong defensively in 1990. Terry also had an MVP season at the plate. Just a bunch of perfect things came together – young guys that got better and then veterans that were hungry and came out and showed us how to take the field every day with the chance to win.”

The Braves weathered the storm during the summer months and found themselves back on sure footing as the second half began. Just as Atlanta won 9-of-11 coming out of the All-Star break, the Dodgers dropped 9-of-11 and the race was on for the division crown.

“Right after the All-Star break, we had a good stretch, they had a bad stretch, and we cut the lead,” Avery recalled. “From then on, it was close all the way to the last day. So, we felt like it was almost playoff baseball, even during the season for the last month. Then, when we got in the playoffs, it was like we were already ready and tested a little bit. We played well against Pittsburgh and played well against Minnesota. Just fell one run short.”

Over the final 38 games, Atlanta and Los Angeles traded the division lead back and forth eight times as they battled all the way down to the very last series of the regular season.

Tied with three games to go, the Braves took the first two games from the Houston Astros to complete an eight-game winning streak while the Dodgers dropped 2-of-3 to the Giants. Just like that, Atlanta celebrated its first division title since 1982.

The ride was just getting started, however.

Atlanta’s next challenge was a National League Championship Series battle against the Pirates, a team led by future Hall of Fame manager Jim Leyland and starring All-Star sluggers Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonilla, and former Cy Young winner Doug Drabek among others.

Pittsburgh was seeking redemption after losing the 1990 NLCS to the Cincinnati Reds and cruised to a 5-1 victory as Drabek bested Glavine to open the series.

The Braves had an answer, however. Avery was waiting in the wings to give the first of two electric pitching performances at a chilly Three Rivers Stadium in Game 2.

With the gametime temperature a brisk 51 degrees, Avery had no trouble heating up.

“I was really never a nervous person,” Avery said of his preparation for that Game 2 start. “I was always pretty confident. So, I treated it like another start. Obviously, I was used to the cold weather being from Michigan. I think that was a big factor for me, but I just felt good.”

Avery delivered 8 1/3 innings of shutout baseball before finally giving way to Alejandro Peña with the tying run in scoring position in a 1-0 game. The veteran righty recorded the final two outs and sent the series to Atlanta tied at a game apiece.

Unfortunately for the Braves, they went on to lose 2-of-3 at Atlanta–Fulton County Stadium. Back in Pittsburgh with their season on the brink, Avery once again took the ball for Atlanta in hopes of forcing a decisive Game 7.

Just like his postseason debut six days prior, he would not disappoint.

This time Avery tossed eight scoreless innings against Drabek as Atlanta won another 1-0 game with Peña slamming the door. The next day, Smoltz continued his redemption arc with a complete game shut-out in Game 7 to send the Braves to their first World Series since 1958.

Avery’s masterclass – 16 1/3 shutout innings and 17 strikeouts – earned him NLCS MVP honors and still stands as one of the greatest postseason pitching performances in franchise history. All of that from unproven young pitcher who almost didn’t make the opening day roster.

Cox’s insistence that Avery be a part of the rotation from Day 1 instilled a confidence that only grew as the lefty gained more and more valuable experience throughout the season. Avery finished the regular season 18-8 with a 3.39 ERA in 35 starts and 210 1/3 innings.

“I got better and better as it went on and then by the time the playoffs came, I was really confident,” Avery said.

Experience was one part of the equation, but youth also worked to Avery’s advantage against the Pirates. He was seemingly unphased by the October stage.

“I mean, I went out and I was 21 years old,” Avery said. “Sometimes, it’s good to be young enough to where you don’t really know what’s going on. I didn’t really know about being nervous yet. If it was later in my career, I probably would’ve realized it was a little more serious. But at the time, I just went out and treated it like another start.”

Braves pitching coach Leo Mazzone was one of the many who marveled at Avery’s calm demeanor in the biggest games the team had played to that point.

“We used to go over the lineup, but at no time did I ever say, ‘You can’t throw this guy this (pitch),’” Mazzone recalled of the Game 6 preparations. “After we do that, I’m walking down to the bullpen with Steve and I said, ‘Steve, you got this figured out?’ And he goes, ‘Yeah.’ So, I said, ‘Good, tell me.’ And says, ‘I’m going to warm up, find out what I’ve got, and then pitch accordingly.’ That’s the best scouting report I’ve ever heard.”

Even with Bonds, Bonilla and a host of other veteran hitters in the lineup, Avery remained cool, calm, and collected. And he stayed with his tried-and-true game plan.

“I always knew my strengths, so even if the hitter’s report is that he’s got the same strengths that I do, I’m going to take my chances,” Avery said. “If I felt good with a certain pitch, I was going to use it whether he was good against it or not. I just tried to put it in a spot that I couldn’t get hurt with it. I always had pretty good control and, when I was younger, I had good stuff. That combination is pretty good when it’s going right.”

After taking the Pirates to seven games and prevailing in the NLCS, the Braves headed to the World Series against Minnesota, another worst-to-first team. The Twins won the American League pennant in five games over the Toronto Blue Jays, a future World Series foe for Atlanta.

The Braves and Twins delivered an instant classic in which each team won all its home games. Minnesota went up 2-0 in the Fall Classic before Atlanta brought the series home and won three straight.

Avery started the first World Series home game ever played in Atlanta, delivering seven innings and allowing just two earned runs. The Braves won in dramatic fashion in extra innings as Mark Lemke singled home David Justice for a 5-4 victory in the bottom of the 12^th inning.

Up three games to two, Atlanta had two chances to win the series back in Minnesota, but Kirby Puckett’s walk-off home run in Game 6 was followed by the epic Game 7 duel between future Hall of Famers Jack Morris and John Smoltz.

Smoltz pitched scoreless ball into the eighth, but Morris fired a 10-inning shutout and Gene Larkin’s pinch-hit single with the bases loaded gave Minnesota the series with a 1-0 victory.

Atlanta returned to the World Series in 1992 against Toronto, falling short in six games. The Braves’ next opportunity to win it all would not come for three more years, but the 1995 team finally broke through. Justice hit a solo home in Game 6 to back Glavine’s 8-inning masterpiece as the Braves beat the Cleveland Indians for their first world title since 1957.

Avery was among 10 remaining members of the 1991 team on Atlanta’s 1995 World Series roster. After four years of October battles, the Braves finally won it all.

“It’s the best,” Avery said of the celebration. “That’s why we play, to try and run on a field after the last out of the World Series and be able to tell everyone you’re the best team in the world. To go through the losses almost made 1995 even more sweet, you know? We came close an awful lot of times and you realized that it’s not easy no matter what. For us to be able to complete that season on top was pretty special.”

All of those Octobers and the memories those teams created still echo to this day.

Avery closed out an 11-year career in 2003, back in Michigan as a member of the Detroit Tigers. He finished 96-83 with a 4.09 ERA in 297 career appearances.

The Yankees bullpen suffered a rare meltdown on Tuesday night, squandering multiple leads to fumble the series opener against the Astros, 9-7. That being said, the relief corps has been an unequivocal strength of the team during a summer light on offensive contributions, second in MLB in ERA (3.06) to help keep the team afloat in the absence of multiple star sluggers. Anchoring that bullpen is the steady presence of David Bednar, who earns Sequence of the Week honors for locking down the save against the Blue Jays in that series’ opener.

We join Bednar with two outs in the ninth inning last Friday against the Blue Jays. It’s a nail-biter of a game with the offense still sputtering, made all the more tense by Brandon Valenzuela’s double to lead off the frame. That brings Brett Bateman to the plate as the tying run, the pesky center fielder already 3-for-5 with a double and a triple.

Bateman collected two of his three hits against fastballs up in the zone, so Bednar tries to exploit that strength by throwing a splitter that looks like a strike out of the hand, relying on the downward movement to extract a chase from the hitter.

This pitch is a little too far away from the zone to get the chase that Bednar was after. Even though it’s a ball in the dirt, it isn’t a complete waste pitch. A ball like this can serve to set up pitches later in the AB, as we will see in a short time.

Austin Wells calls for another splitter, setting a firm target to indicate that he wants Bednar to land this one closer to the bottom edge of the zone.

In order to get the hitter to chase your secondary pitches, sometimes you have to show that you can land them in the zone for a called strike. It’s a dangerous proposition for a pitch like the splitter, particularly like this one that lands pretty much middle-middle. However, Bednar is able to fool Bateman, who gives up on this pitch early given it leaves Bednar’s hand looking like a ball above the zone.

Banking that the pair of splitters have slowed down Bateman’s bat, Bednar throws his first four-seamer of the encounter.

You might wonder why Bateman would watch this fastball down the middle go by for strike two. That is the effect of that first pitch splitter in the dirt.

While not perfectly tunneled with that first pitch splitter, this four-seamer looks similar enough out of Bednar’s hand to cause the hitter to pause. To me, this suggests that Bateman is sitting on the splitter, and after having observed the way the first pitch broke down out of the zone, he is likely eliminating any pitch that leaves Bednar’s hand aimed belt-high or lower.

Despite not throwing the three best pitches to open this AB, Bednar nonetheless has the count leverage in his favor, 1-2. Landing that four-seamer for a called strike reset the hitter’s eye level up and forces him to defend against another heater, which creates a perfect opportunity to go for a chase against the splitter below the zone.

This is by far the best pitch Bednar has thrown in this sequence and it deservedly gets the strikeout swinging to end the game. It looks like an inside strike out of Bednar’s hand before plummeting off the table and below Bateman’s bat.

Here’s the full sequence:

After a minor blip in mid-May, Bednar has reclaimed his rightful place among the game’s most reliable closers. He reaches 30 saves for the second time in his career and has been an anchoring presence late in games with a 0.74 ERA in his last 32 appearances and 36.1 innings pitched. Dominant pitching has been the primary driving force behind the Yankees remaining in touching distance of first in the AL East, Bednar leading the rest of the bullpen by example.

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The home run heat is flickering heading into an important Thursday MLB player prop slate, and although there are fewer home run props to look into, there are a handful of spots today that have to be on the card.

Jackson Chourio has a great right-vs-lefty matchup vs. Sean Manaea — who is one of the hardest-hit pitchers over the last 30 days — and Bryce Eldridge has a price in the Bay Area that's too good to pass up.

These are my favorite home run props for Thursday, Aug. 27.

MLB home run props for today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Cole Carrigg	+680
Jackson Chourio	+390
Bryce Eldridge	+710
💲Today's HR parlay	+22219

Home run prediction: Cole Carrigg (+680)

• Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Nationals.TV, Rockies.TV

Home run prediction: Jackson Chourio (+390)

I debated this pick with William Contreras at +450ish, but settled on the more probable home run after taking a long shot in the Rockies game.

Sean Manaea gets hit hard by right-handed bats, and Jackson Chourio could see five plate appearances today out of the leadoff spot. With Jake Bauers on the bench, Chourio is the best HR hitter in this lineup, head and shoulders above Brice Turang, who struggles against left-handed pitching.

The Mets starter has allowed 13 home runs across his last 54 innings and five long balls over his last three games, including a trio of homers in his last outing against the White Sox.

He ranks in the Bottom 20 among all MLB starters in HR/9 and HR/FB rate over the last 30 days, along with the third-worst hard-hit rate (HardHit%) at 49.4%.

I would bet this down to +350 and think the Brewers have a Top 3 dinger matchup on the slate today.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SNY, Brewers.TV

Home run prediction: Bryce Eldridge (+710)

This is one of the few HRs today showing expected value in Covers' projections. Bryce Eldridge missed the last series to attend his grandfather's funeral, but before that, he was slugging .500 over his previous four series with three homers.

He gets a tasty matchup with Arizona calling up Triple-A starter Jose Cabrera, who has been hit hard in his limited MLB innings, allowing three home runs in 17+ innings while posting a 5.80 ERA at Triple-A this year. He also just gave up three homers and eight runs in his last start for the Reno Aces.

This is a great outlier price, with some books pricing Eldridge around +350 and a fair price closer to +500.

I don't love dingers at Oracle, but Eldridge has hit eight of his 14 homers there this year and is slugging at the same rate at home as he is on the road.

• Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: One National or Two local

Best home run combo for August 27

Cole Carrigg	Trade Now +22219
Jackson Chourio
Bryce Eldridge

Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!

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Last night was not the worst loss of the season, but it was the most humiliating. They got taken to the woodshed by a bad Rockies team. It will be a quick turnaround from that disaster, as they play a day game this afternoon. The boys will look to salvage a split.

The struggling CJ Abrams is still limited to DH duties. He is one of only a couple lefties in the lineup though. With Gabriel Hughes’ reverse splits, we will see a lot of righties. Andres Chaparro is at first base over Abimelec Ortiz in this one. Brady House, Jorbit Vivas and Keibert Ruiz are also back in the lineup. Jake Irvin will be on the mound.

The Rockies are making some changes at the bottom of the order. Superstar Hunter Goodman is out of the lineup, with Brett Sullivan catching instead. Zac Veen is also back in the lineup and is playing left. That moves Jake McCarthy to DH. As mentioned, Gabriel Hughes is on the mound.

Game Info:

Stadium: Nationals Park

Time: 1:05 PM EST

TV: Nationals.TV

Radio: 106.7 The Fan

After last night’s loss, this team has a lot of soul searching to do. Blake Butera rightly called out his team’s poor effort. Hopefully this lights a much needed spark under these players. Follow along in the comments down below and let’s go Nats.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks are sitting as a slim -107 moneyline favorite at Oracle Park tonight as they begin a four-game set with the San Francisco Giants.

However, my Diamondbacks vs. Giants predictions are targeting San Fran on the moneyline amid their impressive offensive form, and Landen Roupp's success in the Bay Area. 

Find out more in my MLB picks for Thursday, Aug. 27 before first pitch at 9:45 p.m. ET.

Who will win Diamondbacks vs Giants today: Giants (-103)

The San Francisco Giants enter this contest swinging it well, carrying a 113 wRC+ across the last week. That profile plays against Jose Cabrera, who has allowed seven earned runs over his last two outings while struggling with command.

Cabrera has not pitched in the big leagues since July 8 and owns a 5.46 FIP across four appearances this season, making him tough to trust.

Landen Roupp is not in peak form either, but he has been more reliable at Oracle Park, posting a 3.50 FIP while allowing just 0.60 HR/9 at home.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are hovering around league average offensively, and Roupp’s home profile gives San Francisco the cleaner edge.

Play this pick up to -130.

COVERS INTEL: The Giants are consistently squaring up the baseball with a 47.9% hard-hit rate and 13% barrel rate in their last seven games. For the season, San Fran's hard-hit rate sits at 37.5%. 

Diamondbacks vs Giants Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+109)

I’m targeting the Over 8.5 in the Bay Area.

Arizona has a 101 wRC+ over the last week, which is respectable enough to contribute here. Roupp has held his own at Oracle Park, but he is not untouchable, and San Francisco’s bullpen owns a 4.03 FIP over its last 31.2 frames.

The Diamondbacks’ relief corps has been even more vulnerable. Over the last week, Arizona’s pen owns a 5.95 FIP while surrendering 2.36 HR/9. The Giants should have a clear scoring path against both Cabrera and a struggling bullpen given their recent offensive form.

Arizona has enough offensive life to chip in, strengthening the Over case.

Play this pick down to +100.

Diamondbacks vs Giants home run prediction: Rafael Devers (+442)

Rafael Devers is one of the hottest power hitters in baseball at the moment. He has smacked four home runs over his previous seven games while carrying a ridiculous .500 ISO during that span.

The slugger owns a 48.5% fly-ball rate at home this season and a 55% fly-ball rate over the last week. Even better, he has turned 36.4% of those recent fly balls into home runs.

With Cabrera prone to the long ball at 1.53 HR/9 this season and Arizona’s bullpen also allowing too many homers lately, Devers has multiple paths to another bomb tonight.

Play this pick down to +400.

Diamondbacks vs Giants weather

Weather at Oracle Park looks cool and clean tonight, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures falling from 66°F to 63°F. Winds start around 9 mph before easing to 3–5 mph, and rain chances sit at 0% throughout. No delay concern, though the cool air could slightly limit carry.

Diamondbacks vs Giants odds

• Moneyline: Diamondbacks -107 | Giants -103
• Run line: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+152) | Giants +1.5 (-168)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+109) | Under 8.5 (-126)

Diamondbacks vs Giants trend

The Over is 5-0-2 in Roupp's last 7 starts as an underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Giants.

How to watch Diamondbacks vs Giants and game info

Diamondbacks vs Giants latest injuries

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It was back to winning ways yesterday with another 2-1 day to keep the August heat turned up on the pitcher and MLB player props.

It's about time the Brewers slow down Jacob Misiorowski with a big lead in the NL Central, bettors will see the best of Yoshinobu Yamamoto tonight vs. Chris Sale and the Dodgers wins dipping, and finally, I'll show you where you can find a better price when a pitcher's Over 2.5 earned run prop pops to the Over.

These are my favorite strikeout and pitcher props for Thursday, August 27.  

Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today

Player/Team	Pick	Odds
Jacob Misiorowski	Under 8.5 strikeouts	-108
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Over 6.5 strikeouts	+124
Giants first-five team total	F5 TT Over 2.5	+124

Strikeout prop: Jacob Misiorowski Under 8.5 strikeouts (-108)

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SNY, Brewers.TV

Strikeout prop: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 6.5 strikeouts (+124)

I'm betting on motivation and a long leash from Yoshinobu Yamamoto today. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in danger of being swept by the Atlanta Braves, something that's already happened three times since the start of July. L.A. needs the best of Yamamoto today, and the matchup against Chris Sale should bring out the best in an elite pitcher who has a track record of thriving in higher-leverage opportunities.

The L.A. starter has a 100-pitch leash and has hit this prop in 50% of his starts since the start of July, while coming off back-to-back nine-strikeout outings. Atlanta is a Top-15 K% matchup, and even if this is slightly below 50% probable, the price is still solid expected value.

I have this around 48% today, putting the fair price at just under even money after accounting for the margin.

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: BravesVision, SportsNet Los Angeles

Giants prop: First-five team total Over 2.5 (+124)

I understand this doesn't sound like a pitcher prop, but the Arizona Diamondbacks are starting Triple-A call-up Jose Cabrera, and I want to bet his Over 2.5 earned runs at +117. This is a pitcher with an outs market of 14.5 and isn't expected to sniff the 16th out. So why would I bet +117 and risk the heartbreak of giving up unearned outs when I can get +124 for just runs?

It makes no sense, and that's why you should bet the Giants' first five innings team total Over instead of a bad, short-leashed pitcher Over earned runs. THE BAT is projecting 2.46 earned runs from Cabrera but 2.63 runs for the Giants through the first five innings.

Today's lesson: If you like an Over 2.5 earned runs prop from a bad pitcher who likely isn't going more than five innings, the opposing first-five team total Over is almost always the better option and offers better value.

• Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCS-Bay Area, Dbacks.TV

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The Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals close out their four-game series this morning at Nationals Park. Colorado enters at 52-81, while Washington enters at 62-73.

Monday’s 13-3 loss extended the Rockies’ losing streak to a season-high seven games. During that stretch, Colorado was outscored 57-24, the rotation went 0-7 with a 9.64 ERA across 32.2 innings, and the offense averaged just 3.4 runs per game.

The Rockies have responded with two straight wins. They snapped the streak Tuesday behind an encouraging major-league debut from Mason Adams, who allowed one run over four-plus innings while striking out five. They followed it Wednesday with a 13-1 win powered by a loud offense and seven innings of one-run ball from Tanner Gordon.

Now they have a chance to leave Washington with three wins in four games.

Rookie right-hander Gabriel Hughes gets the ball for Colorado in his ninth major-league start, still looking for his first win.

Hughes enters at 0-5 with a 6.54 ERA, though the expected numbers are more encouraging. His 3.46 xERA, .230 xBA and 4.5% barrel rate suggest the quality of contact against him has been better than the surface results.

The pitch mix is still fastball-heavy. Hughes throws his four-seamer 55% of the time, and his fastball usage climbs over 60% when including the sinker. The four-seamer has not missed many bats, but it has limited damage, holding hitters to a .324 xSLG and a 28.2% hard-hit rate.

His hard-contact suppression is encouraging, but his low chase rate, low whiff rate and modest strikeout rate are working against him.

The curveball is the pitch to watch behind the fastball. Hughes has thrown it only 10.5% of the time, but hitters have a .326 xSLG against it with a 31.4% whiff rate and a 52.9% strikeout rate. It is still a small sample, but the numbers are interesting.

Washington counters with Jake Irvin, who gives the Rockies a unique look but is also a pitcher they should have a chance to hit.

The 29-year-old righty enters today with a 6.53 ERA in August. He has completed six innings in each of his last two starts, but the overall month has still been rough.

Standing 6-foot-6, Irvin gets excellent extension and works from a lower slot, with a 27-degree arm angle. He works with six pitches, anchored by three fastballs: a four-seamer, sinker and cutter. The four-seamer leads the arsenal at 28.2%, followed by his curveball at 23.4% and sinker at 19.7%. The cutter checks in at 15.8%, while the sweeper and changeup are used less often.

The curveball has been his best pitch by run value. It is not a big 12-6 shape. It is tighter, with more horizontal action, and the velocity gap is real: his fastballs sit in the low 90s, while the curveball averages around 78 mph.

After Wednesday night’s 13-run outburst, the Rockies have a decent chance to keep the offense moving if they force Irvin into the zone and avoid letting the curveball steal too many easy counts.

Connor Norby starts at second base after hitting his first career grand slam Wednesday night. Norby has hit .310/.408/.571 with two home runs and nine RBI in 14 games since joining the Rockies. Troy Johnston gets the start in right field after going deep last night and hitting .318/.444/.636 over his last seven games. Zac Veen is also back in the lineup, starting in left field.

And then there is the 63-win chase.

Colorado needs to finish 11-18 to reach 63 wins, and the schedule does not exactly open up after this series. Twelve of the Rockies’ remaining games come against sub-.500 teams: Baltimore, Detroit, St. Louis and Seattle. That sounds helpful until you put the group together. Those four teams are a combined 257-277, good for a .481 winning percentage.

A .481 winning percentage is exactly what the Rockies managed in April. They have not played at that level in any month since.

A 62-win team and a 63-win team are both bad teams. But after three straight seasons with 100 or more losses, including 119 losses in 2025, the Rockies need some kind of finish line worth tracking.

So, does getting to 63 wins matter? Maybe. Maybe not.

But beating Washington this morning would make the tough road to 63 feel a little more manageable.

The details…

First Pitch: 11:05 a.m. MDT

TV: Rockies.TV

Radio: KOA 850 AM/94.1 FM

Nationals SB Nation Site:Federal Baseball

Lineups:

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks! 

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The frenetic fight to make the MLB postseason in the American League has left oddsmakers in a state of constant chaos.

Key Takeaways

• The Guardians saw their playoff odds jump by 33.1 percentage points over the last week.
  
  
• The Twins lost 28.5 percentage points in postseason probability over that same span.
  
  
• Oddsmakers view the White Sox as the strongest World Series contenders among the teams in in the AL wild-card picture.

The race for the AL wild card is one of the closest in recent memory. Seven teams are within 5.5 games of earning the third and final spot, which the Guardians hold entering Thursday's slate. The Guardians are also just 2.5 games behind the AL Central-leading White Sox, meaning Cleveland could overtake Chicago for the division lead and push the White Sox into the wild-card places.

Data from baseball analytics platform FanGraphs shows noticeable changes for teams over the week ranging from Aug. 19 up to and including Aug. 26.

These percentages are very similar to the implied probabilities of MLB betting odds listed at FanDuel. 

As of Thursday morning, these are the odds for teams in wild-card picture to make and miss the postseason

Who is in the best position?

The regular season ends Sept. 27, leaving teams with exactly one month to make their final postseason pushes.

Although the White Sox are heavy favorites to make the postseason, they still have two series against the Twins and battles with the Astros, Guardians, and Tigers - all of whom are in the hunt for the wild card. 

The Guardians get the Blue Jays, Tigers, Orioles, Twins, and White Sox, among others. The remaining strength of schedule for the two top AL wild-card contenders rank 28th- and 26th-hardest, respectively, of 30 teams, according to Tankathon.

The Astros face a tough stretch with upcoming series against the Red Sox, White Sox, and Guardians, while their remaining schedule ranks 13th in difficulty. By contrast, the Mariners have the easiest remaining schedule, which features eight games against the Angels, seven against the Athletics, and three against the Rockies. 

The Rangers have the most difficult upcoming schedule among AL wild-card contenders, ranking 10th in the category. The Orioles are 17th; the Blue Jays are 29th; the Twins are 25th; and the Tigers are 21st.

The strength-of-schedule rankings for AL wild-card contenders are as follows:

• White Sox: 28th
• Guardians: 26th
• Astros: 13th
• Mariners: 30th
• Rangers: 10th
• Orioles: 17th
• Blue Jays: 29th
• Twins: 25th
• Tigers: 21st

World Series odds

As the race to make the wild card continues, the Dodgers continue to have a comfortable lead in World Series odds. FanDuel lists the back-to-back champions at +160 (38.5% implied chance), well ahead of the closest challengers, the Brewers (+750) and Yankees (+800).

The Rays (+1,100), Red Sox (+1,300), and Cubs (+1,400) fill out the list of the next challengers. The team in the wild-card picture with the shortest World Series odds is the White Sox, at +2,500.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

In the end, these incidents probably won’t matter much to the Cubs’ postseason chances.

But I think they’re both worth discussing, especially on an off day as we await the Cubs’ return to Wrigley Field for an important seven-game homestand.

The two things I’m talking about are:

• The Diamondbacks getting upset Monday about Cubs third base coach Quintin Berry allegedly relaying signs to Cubs hitters
• The missed balk call on D-backs pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez on Wednesday

Let’s begin with Monday’s events.

Here’s Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly on Berry on Monday’s incident [VIDEO].

That stemmed from this — and yes, there was a LOT of profanity!

The thing is, as long as the coach stays in the coach’s box — which is now a mandate from MLB after many coaches strayed way out of it before this year — signs are fair game. Kelly even acknowledged the gamesmanship in the clip above. And that led to an apology issued to the Cubs by D-backs manager Torey Lovullo:

Upon further review, Lovullo indicated he received a satisfactory explanation from Michael Hill, Major League Baseball’s senior vice president of on-field operations, which apparently absolved the Cubs.

“I stand corrected,” Lovullo told reporters ahead of Tuesday’s game. “I had a chance to call ‘Couns’ and apologize to him. I told him that we were wrong and they were doing everything right.

“It’s a very intense time of the year, and a lot goes on. It’s two teams trying to protect their turf. (Counsell) got it, hung up the phone and (we) went our ways and told them that I’d take care of our clubhouse, which I did.”

“Everything the Chicago Cubs were doing was perfectly legal and within the boundaries of the rules,” Lovullo said. “Yes, they were (relaying information), and good for them. They did a good coaching job; they took advantage of one of our vulnerabilities. Merrill was giving away a couple of his pitches, and the base coaches were relaying it to the hitter or the base runner.”

“Everybody’s paranoid,” Berry said. “It happens to us all the time. You’re always like, ‘Is there something? Can we clean up on our side? Do they have something?’ That’s the way the game is. Everybody’s thinking about it. Everybody’s trying to keep their house clean. You worry about that. You can’t control anything else.”

These two teams won’t face each other again this year, unless somehow they both make the postseason and wind up in an October series down the line. That’s very unlikely, but… it would probably be pretty intense after all of that.

The other incident during this series cost the Cubs a run on Wednesday.

Situation: The game is scoreless in the top of the sixth. Pete Crow-Armstrong led off with a double and went to third on a ground out. One out later, Michael Busch was at bat when this happened:

The umpires conferred and said “no balk.” PCA was livid and had to be restrained by Berry to avoid getting tossed (and contact with the umpires, which might have resulted in a suspension).

Turns out PCA was correct:

The umpires admitted their mistake… too late for it to make any difference. If the correct call had been made. the Cubs would have had a run and led 1-0. Would that have made a difference in the final score of the game? It’s possible. Instead of it being 1-0 in the eighth, when Ryan Zeferjahn entered and allowed Arizona a second run, it would have been 1-1 — assuming everything else went in sequence as it did in the actual game, which isn’t a sure thing either.

So my suggestion: Why not allow calls like this to be reviewable? That would have taken away any need for argument and risk of a player being ejected. In my view, there are a fair number of non-reviewable plays of this nature which really should be subject to review.

The Cubs didn’t lose this game because of this call, but it certainly would have made a difference if it had been made correctly.

All the Cubs can do is pick up and try to win the next game. They begin a stretch of 13 games in a row without an off day Friday at Wrigley Field, and seven of those games are against the division-leading Brewers. Go Cubs.

Winning a series and still losing ground in the playoff race is not ideal for any ballclub, but the timing couldn’t be any more unfortunate as was for the Dbacks after taking 2 of 3 from the Cincinnati Reds and still dropping a game in the standings to the scorching hot Padres and Phillies, as the snakes would then welcome the #1 Wild Card team (at the moment at least) in the Chicago Cubs to town for a tough 3 game series. As we discussed on the last episode of Dbacks Dispatch, we all agreed that a series win would be the bare minimum requirement if the Diamondbacks want to stay afloat in this race, as dropping this series or even getting swept by the hands of the Cubs could potentially be a brutal blow to the D’Backs playoff chances.

Tipping Culture Is Out Of Hand!

The first topic of this episode came from Monday nights 7-0 clubbing from the Cubbies, as Merrill Kelly would continue his struggling ways in August (better this start than previous at least), as the most sign of life the Diamondbacks would show all night would be when D’Backs bench coach Jeff Bannister and pitching coach Brian Kaplan would be in a yelling match with Cubs 3rd-Base coach Quintin Berry and other members of Chicago’s bench over Berry reading Merrill’s pitch grips and relaying that information to the Cubs hitters which Kelly would later call “bush league”.

The fellas and I discussed whether or not we were in agreement with the mainstay, or if this was something that the Diamondbacks potentially overreacted to at the moment. We were all in agreement that while some things like what Quintin Berry did could be seen as “bush league” depending on ones point of view, the blame should mostly be on Merrill for tipping his pitches, as even Torey Lovullo looked into it and found that nothing the Cubs did was against the rules and this most likely was Merrill just finding an outlet to vent his frustrations for a very subpar month of August.

Waldy and the Walk-Off Factory

After getting blanked 7-0 in Monday night’s affair, the Cubs starter Clay Holmes was copying Kevin Gausman’s homework from the night before as he also kept the D’Backs offense on their toes and shut them out through his 7 innings of work. It looked like it would be another night where the Snakes offense appeared to forget to offer rum and cigars to Jobu before the game. Thankfully for the D’Backs (and all of our mental well being) the offense decided to show up fashionably late top the party and get 3 runs back in the 8th (1 off a Gabi check swing double and 2 more on a Perdomo single) and get the team right back into the fight by making it a 1 run deficit. It looked like the D’Backs comeback might fall just short as Jose Fernandez sat at 2nd base with 2 outs, Ryan Waldschmidt would once again come up big in the clutch and would launch a walk off 2-Run shot into the left field bleachers for his 3rd bomb on the year and 2nd walk off home run of his short career.

Gabe, Brandon and I discussed just what was going through our minds during that rally in both the 8th and 9th innings along with what emotions went through our heads during Waldys big moment in the 9th. Gabes frustration from watching Kepler and the struggling offense in person had him ready to chug a few more tall boys to drown his sorrows but the exciting comeback and walk off from Waldschmidt had him leaving the stadium with a happy buzz and happy that all the snowbird Cub fans left without the same feeling. Brandon mentioned that it was so nice to see the Snakes get what we call “MLB The Show’d” on the Gabriel Moreno check swing double, he also gave manager Torey Lovullo credit for the decisions he made with the bench that led to this crazy comeback.

Ace-uardo Rodriguez Flies The L

Trying to follow up an ending like Tuesday night’s walkoff excitement is always a tough task, but if there was anyone that would be able to answer the call and build off that win into a series victory over a strong wild card opponent that would be the Diamondbacks 2026 Ace Eduardo Rodriguez.

So far it has been the best year for Rodriguez in Sedona red and teal with his 2.50 ERA (lowest since 3.30 in 2023 and only time being below 3), 162 IP and 1.19 WHIP being his best marks by far and some of his best numbers since his days pitching in the American League, and that kind of performance is what the Snakes needed as their struggling offense would only be able to muster 2 runs of support for ERod but it was more than enough as Rodriguez would go 7 shutty (might have been helped by a no call on a potential balk with PCA at 3rd base in the 6th) with 9 strikeouts. This outing adds on to his resume of his impressive outings against some of the best teams in the NL this year.

Brandon, Gabe and I talked about how much of a blessing this kind of season has been from Rodriguez in a year where the Diamondbacks starting pitching depth has been pushed to its limits, while also asking each other if this season has made up for his rough 2 seasons to start his D’Backs career. Gabe believes that Rodriguez has almost single handedly saved this team from being well out of the wild card race with the performances we’ve gotten out of him and that his health has been a big factor to his success to his start this year. Brandon decided to steal Merrill’s nickname and dub Eduardo the “Mainstay” of the 2026 staff due to him making all his starts and being healthy when seemingly every other starter has had issues in that area, and in regards to his contract he believe4s that its turned the thought process on ERod’s deal from MadBum territory of “oh no how do we get rid of this guy” to “can we keep in for a few more years?”.

Giant(s) Series On The Horizon

After finishing the quick homestand with a record of 4-2 and leaving the same way they entered the desert, one game back of the Padres for that 3rd WIld Card, the Diamondbacks would be taking a trip to San Fran for a short 4 game road trip as they would matchup against the 2nd to last place Giants. The Diamondbacks have enjoyed their previous 9 meetings as they have lost just 1 game against San Francisco and have used them as their interdivisional punching bag throughout 2026. 

The fellas and I agreed that while we have had what Borat would call “Great Success!” against the Giants this year, we have struggled against San Fran in past years during previous wild card races (I still have nightmares about that late September series in 2024) and the Snakes winning 3 of 4 or even sweeping the 4 game set could set them up very nicely going into a huge 3 game series against the Phillies.

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Very small slate today, but there are still a ton of MLB player props to sift through.

Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Thursday, Aug. 27, including why Yordan Alvarez is going to mash in the Bronx.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Spencer Arrighetti	Over 1.5 Earned Runs	-168
Yordan Alvarez	Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI	-120
Colorado Rockies	F5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs	+100

Spencer Arrighetti Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-168)

The Kansas City Royals find themselves in a mouthwatering matchup against Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Spencer Arrighetti. The starter has been tormented by left-handed hitters this season, and the Royals have four left-handers in strong spots against him.

Against the last60 left-handed hitters he has faced, Arrighetti sports a 13.50 ERA and 9.10 xERA, while allowing a 43% hard-hit rate, 14.3% barrel rate and 22.9% ground-ball rate. Those left-handed hitters own a .336 xBA, .811 xSLG and .462 xwOBA.

Over the last week, Kansas City has a 127 wRC+, .355 wOBA and .804 OPS. This team has hit another gear this past week as it takes on a guy appearing on his third team this season.

Yes, it is a juicy prop, and if you are not in the juice-paying business, take the Royals' first-five team total over 2.5 at plus money, or his 2.5 earned runs allowed.

• Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ROYL, Sportsnet

Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (-120)

Houston Astros big fella is in a cinematic matchup against New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole. Fingers crossed the right hander will not chicken out and actually pitch to the future 2026 AL MVP.

We are backing Yordan Alvarez for a few reasons, one being the price for a prop he has cashed almost 65% of the time when he has owned an elite rating on Batters-Box. Secondly, Cole is a very fastball-heavy pitcher. This season alone, Alvarez owns a .306 BA, .412 xBA and 1.096 OPS, while posting a 57% hard-hit rate against fastballs.

Over his last 10 batted balls, Alvarez has hit five balls above 102.2 MPH. He is in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks. We just need him to catch a fastball.

Take this down to -130.

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: YES, SCHN

Rockies First Five Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (+100)

The Denver Pebbles have had a very productive offensive series against the Washington Nationals. This evening, they draw the worst-rated pitcher on Batters-Box while having five elite-rated hitters, with three having strong ratings.

That pitcher is right-hander Jake Irvin, who has struggled heavily this season, especially at home, where he sports a 7.52 ERA, 5.70 xERA and 1.67 WHIP.

Seven of those eight strongly rated bats will be hitting from the left side this afternoon. Over the last 60 left-handed hitters he has faced, Irvin has an 8.36 ERA, allowing a 50% hard-hit rate, 9.5% barrel rate and 2.57 HR/9. Those lefties have a .294 xBA, .636 xSLG and .304 ISO.

This past week, the Colorado Rockies own a .334 wOBA, 11.1% walk rate, .749 OPS and 42% hard-hit rate. With how poorly Irvin has been recently against left-handed hitters and overall this season at home, the Rockies have a strong chance to go up early.

Find plus money, do not pay juice.

• Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: COLR, NATS

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