Ignore Ken Rosenthal. Here are four more moves the Royals could make before Opening Day

Over the weekend, Ken Rosenthal dropped a little nugget on Royals fans about their outlook for the remainder of the offseason:

The Kansas City Royals are increasingly unlikely to land either of the two hitters they pursued in trades: the St. Louis Cardinals’ Brendan Donovan and Boston Red Sox’s Jarren Duran.

Barring further moves, the Royals expect to rely heavily on offseason acquisitions Isaac Collins and Lane Thomas in their outfield, as well as rookie Jac Caglianone and holdover Kyle Isbel.

Let’s break down that last sentence a little bit more, though. Another way of saying that would be, “Unless something changes, it will remain the same.” This is a tautology, a logical statement that cannot be negated. If you try to negate his statement, you get, “Unless things remain the same, they will change.” It’s utterly useless. It’s also, simply, incorrect.

The baseball offseason is a game of dominoes. Each move made reduces opportunities and options. This causes teams and players to change the calculus constantly.

Last week, the Red Sox signed their first free agent of the offseason, Ranger Suárez. This has massive repercussions for the Royals. First of all, it made the Red Sox’s desire for Cole Ragans or Kris Bubic fall to basically nil. This made the chances that the Royals could acquire Jarren Duran similarly low.

Or, for a less Royals-oriented move but one which highlights this phenomenon even better, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker signed deals last week and suddenly Bo Bichette, who had found himself so lacking in team attention that he started leaking news about his willingness to change positions, got a huge short-term deal from the Mets who saw their options evaporating in front of their eyes.

But of course, that deal has implications for the Royals, too. Some of us were hoping Bichette’s value would fall far enough for the Royals to sneak in and swipe him. That’s not happening now. But with so many second basemen in the fold, the Mets probably need to trade away one or both of Brett Baty and Mark Vientos. Either could become a Royals target – I prefer Baty – or their availability could water down Donovan’s market to the point where he falls back into range for the Royals.

Whenever Framber Valdez signs, Kris Bubic should become a lot more appealing to the teams who missed out on Valdez and Suárez. Maybe Donovan and Duran are still off the table, but someone else could become available. Or a three-team deal that had seemed impossible could suddenly manifest for a team that wants Bubic but only wants to trade prospects that the Royals aren’t willing to wait for.

With all that in mind, here are several moves I think the Royals could make and what they’re waiting to happen before they make them.

Kris Bubic gets traded for Brett Baty

  • Framber Valdez has to sign somewhere other than with the Mets
  • Cody Bellinger has to sign with the Mets (this doesn’t have to happen, but it makes it easier)
  • Bubic may need to pitch in Spring Training to show he’s healthy

Rumor has it that the Mets are considering playing Baty in left field, but that doesn’t really make a ton of sense when they have top prospect Carson Benge about ready to debut, and would make even less sense if they get Bellinger, too. We already discussed this deal a bit above and a few months ago when I wrote my first trade proposal. I don’t know if the Royals can get Kodai Senga, too, but they probably don’t want to have to give up Blake Mitchell. Five years of Baty for one year of Bubic would be a pretty big overpay, so I’d expect the Royals to have to kick in another piece or two to finish the deal, but if the Mets are as desperate as people seem to think they must have been to do the Bichette deal, maybe they’d go straight up.

Bailey Falter gets traded

  • Spring Training has to start, and teams need to develop holes in their rotations due to injury

I don’t know how much of a return Falter will bring, probably not much, but the Royals could get out from under the $3.6 million they owe him by dealing him and as a reasonably competent starting pitcher – no matter how he looked for KC after the deadline last year – there should be multiple teams willing to give up a real prospect to patch a hole in their rotation. Not a top one, but one who has some kind of real value.

Adam Frazier gets signed

  • Spring Training needs to start, and competitive teams need to be comfortable with their starting 2B/Corner Outfielders

Many have expressed shock that Frazier hasn’t already returned to KC. The most likely reason for this is that the Royals can’t guarantee him playing time. It makes all the sense in the world for him to wait until a couple of weeks into Spring Training to see if anyone finds themselves in need of his services that will guarantee him more money or more playing time than what the Royals have offered. Once it becomes clear that no one really wants him, he’ll come back to KC for whatever deal they’ve left on the table for him.

John Schreiber gets traded

  • Nothing needs to happen, but there’s no rush either.

You may recall that the Royals first acquired John Schreiber in the middle part of Spring Training two years ago. He’s a talented enough relief pitcher to have value, but not one that has teams clamoring to add him immediately. Much like the Royals in 2024, someone will call KC a couple of weeks into Spring Training wanting to boost the front end of their bullpen just a smidge, and the Royals will be able to offload his $3.715 million contract.

The Royals gave up David Sandlin for him; Sandlin was a low-level prospect with some projectability who looked awful last year, but saw the Red Sox add him to their 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule-5 draft all the same. The Royals could likely get a similar style of prospect in return for him now, though hopefully they’ll scout them a bit better.

Over on the Royals Rundown podcast, Jacob and I have been ranking the most interesting players in the Royals’ system at each position. One thing has become clear as we have ranked the entire infield and begun to prepare to do the outfield next: The Royals desperately lack upper-level talent of any kind. Trading Schreiber and Falter could help them fill in some of those gaps while also freeing up payroll to add another left-handed reliever or some other piece to help them find their way to their second-ever Central Division title.

Colorado Rockies prospects: No. 29, Ethan Hedges

29. Ethan Hedges (58 points, 12 ballots)

Colorado’s third round pick in the 2025 draft (77th overall) out of the University of Southern California was Hedges. The 6’1” 21-year-old righty was a two-way player during his draft year but will be a third baseman as a professional. Hedges signed for $950k, about $110k below the slot value for the pick. As a prospect, Hedges boasts an elite arm (as a college pitcher, you’d hope so) and some good athleticism on defense, though there isn’t another standout tool.

Mid-season 2025 Rank: HM

High Ballot: 19

Mode Ballot: 30

Future Value: 35+, reserve infielder

Contract Status: 2025 Third Round, University of Southern California, Rule 5 Eligible After 2028, three options remaining

MLB ETA: 2028

Hedges was a three-year starter with USC, accumulating a combined batting line of .308/.413/.488. In 2025 he hit a very strong .346/.462/.619 with 14 HR among his 30 extra-base hits and 10/10 steals in 288 plate appearances, which equates to a 147 wRC+. In addition, he appeared in 15 games as USC’s closer, throwing 15 innings and getting 9 saves with a 2.40 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.

After signing, Hedges was assigned to High-A Spokane to begin his professional career, where he was 1.3 years younger than league average. In 20 games with Spokane down the stretch, Hedges struggled with the adjustment to pro ball, hitting .195/.303/.234 with three doubles in 89 plate appearances (just a 50 wRC+). Propping those numbers up was an 11% walk rate, which tracked with his college stats.

Here’s the video commentary on Hedges when he was drafted last year (and here he is taking grounders at the MLB Draft Combine):

MLB Pipeline ranked Hedges 159th overall in the draft (well below where he was picked) and now places him 17th in the system as a 40 FV player with a 60 arm and 55 field grades:

Hedges has a very good feel for the game, and while he doesn’t necessarily have any “wow” tools, he maximizes what he has thanks to outstanding makeup. It’s a line-drive approach from the right side of the plate, and he routinely finds the barrel, enabling him to post elite-level numbers in batting average and wOBA. He can drive the ball, and while he reached double figures in home runs this past spring, he profiles more as a guy with some extra-base doubles pop than huge over-the-fence thump in the future.

An average runner, Hedges has the chance to be a very solid defender with good instincts at the hot corner. He also has a plus arm, one that sits 93 mph with a fastball as a reliever to go along with a slider and a changeup. The hope is some more power can be teased out of him as a pro so that he can profile at third.

Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs ranked Hedges 109th in the draft class as a 40 FV player and lists him 26th in the system with a 60 arm and 60 future field tool:

Excellent third base defender with plus range, hands, actions, and arm. Quick-footed in on the grass, makes strong accurate feeds to second base, value-altering defense. All fields doubles spray. Slightly chase-prone but contact pieces of profile are closer to average. Hands load really late and there might be more in the tank on offense if Hedges makes adjustments to be better on time. His bat speed looks better than his measurable power. Below-average everyday third baseman as currently constituted, defensive ability might portend competence at other positions that would allow for a utility role.

Keith Law of the Athletic wrote this about Hedges after the draft:

USC third baseman Ethan Hedges (3) went from two homers last year for the Trojans to 14 this year, although his batted-ball data points more to average power. He doesn’t hit spin well at all, and projects as a lower-OBP guy with maybe 15-18 homers at his peak. He also threw 15 innings in relief this year, topping out at 95 with a high-effort delivery, so he clearly has the arm to play anywhere on the field.

Hedges should be able to handle the hot corner defensively, but it’s his offensive projection that’s more of a question for scouts. The draft pedigree and prospect profile were enough for me to rank Hedges 28th on my ballot as a 35+ FV player. Hedges will likely start 2026 back with Spokane where he will be at league average age and with an off-season as a professional under his belt.


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Rangers add Junis to pen, per reports

The Texas Rangers and free agent reliever Jakob Junis have agreed to terms on a one year, $4 million deal with a mutual option, per reports.

Junis, 33, is a righthander who originally came up with the Kansas City Royals as a starting pitcher in 2017. After a bad 2020 campaign, he moved between the rotation and the bullpen with the Royals and then San Francisco from 2021-23. He split the 2024 season between the Brewers and the Reds, getting sent to Cincinnati at the deadline in the Frankie Montas deal.

Junis signed a one year deal last winter with the Cleveland Guardians and worked exclusively out of the pen, putting up a 2.97 ERA, 3.45 FIP and 4.04 xERA. He throws four pitches — unusual for a reliever, but not unexpected given how much of his career was spent as a starter — with his slider being his best pitch, featuring a lot of horizontal break. He had a lot of success with his changeup in 2025, but both his sinker and fastball were hammered.

Junis doesn’t throw hard and doesn’t strike a lot of batters out. He does, however, throw strikes, and in 2025, anyway, did a good job avoiding hard contact.

The Rangers’ 40 man roster is currently full, and so a move will have to be made to clear a roster spot once the Junis deal is official. Dom Hamel, Zak Kent, and Michael Otanez are guys who were acquired on waivers earlier this winter, and would seem to be the guys most likely on the bubble.

Paul Toboni says the Washington Nationals are not done yet

After making a couple trades in early December, the Nationals have been pretty quiet. There have been some smaller signings and a couple waiver claims, but no big moves. That has led some to wonder whether the Nats are done with their major moves. However, Paul Toboni indicated that there will be more activity coming.

In a radio interview, Toboni said the team is not set for Spring Training yet. That is music to the ears of Nationals fans. Even for a team with low expectations, there are some glaring holes on the roster. Most notably, first base and the bullpen are very unsettled. The Nats could also use more rotation help, especially if MacKenzie Gore gets traded.

It is reassuring to hear that Toboni is not done. If there are more moves to make, what would some realistic targets be though? Well, one guy that has made a ton of sense all offseason is Rhys Hoskins. The Nats desperately need right handed power, and Hoskins provides that. He has five 25-homer seasons in his career and is also a very patient hitter.

Hoskins only played 90 games last year, but he hit 12 homers and posted a solid .748 OPS. The Nats will be able to sign him to a fairly cheap one-year deal as well. He checks a lot of boxes with his power, leadership and ability to get on base. There are other older options like Paul Goldschmidt and Carlos Santana, but I think Hoskins has more in the tank.

Another position the Nats could explore is the relief market. All of the top guys are off the board now, but there are some interesting names out there. Seranthony Dominguez, Jalen Beeks and Michael Kopech are three options that intrigue me. Dominguez would be the most expensive, but he has closer stuff and could be a strong trade chip at the deadline. 

While the Nats have bodies in the rotation, they could use some more reliability. Most of the mid-tier free agent starters are still available. A reunion with Max Scherzer would warm my heart, but he is injury prone at this point in his career. If the Nats wanted to spend more money while not breaking the bank, guys like Zack Littell or Lucas Giolito would make sense. 

Interestingly, Toboni also said that the Nats continue to have trade conversations with other teams. This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, but it is nice that he is working the phones. MacKenzie Gore is the most obvious trade candidate, but I wonder if there could be any last minute surprises.

We did not expect the Jose A. Ferrer or Jake Bennett trades when they happened. Could Toboni have one more trick up his sleeve? At this point, I would be very surprised if CJ Abrams was traded. There was some buzz around his name earlier this offseason, but that has really died down. Jacob Young or Luis Garcia Jr. are guys I would not be totally stunned to see traded.

I am less confident that a MacKenzie Gore trade happens than I was earlier this offseason. However, it is clearly still on the table. A lot of pitching needy teams have made their big moves already, but there are still some suitors for Gore. The Giants, the A’s and the Mets are three teams that come to mind. All of them have solid farm systems and need frontline pitching.

Toboni seems content with the idea of holding on to Gore if the right offer does not come. Personally, I would have a bit more urgency to move him, but I understand where he is coming from. If Gore makes some adjustments and has a big first half, his value could be even higher. However, if he gets hurt or struggles, his value could really crater. 

Given the prices for starters this offseason, I would cash in, but I do not know the offers Toboni is getting. I would assume there have been competitive packages, but none that have blown Toboni away. The new front office has my trust, but a Gore trade would be my preference.

Unless the Nats trade Gore, I don’t think any crazy moves are coming. However, there will be more bodies coming through the door. Rhys Hoskins just makes so much sense to me. Maybe I am just talking myself into it, but I think that is a move that will happen. I also think that the Nats will add a pitcher or two into the fold.

There will also be more minor league free agent deals. Yesterday, they picked up Trevor Gott. With how much organizational depth they lost this offseason, we are likely to see more moves like that. We could also see another waiver claim or two. One thing is clear though, the Washington Nationals are not done yet.

Good Morning San Diego: Mike Shildt told people close to him in middle of 2025 season he was considering pivot at end of year

Former San Diego Padres manager Mike Shildt was quoted at length in a story by Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post. Shildt tries to articulate why he walked away from his managerial job in San Diego and why it seemed that he so quickly transitioned into his new role in the Baltimore Orioles organization. Bob Melvin, who held the manager position with the Padres prior to Shildt, talked about how he looked across the field and longed to be in the dugout with the San Francisco Giants and it seems that Shildt was also looking for more as early as the middle of the 2025 season.

Padres News:

  • Randy Vasquez has increased his numbers in each of his first two seasons with the San Diego Padres. He has been used more as a sixth man in the rotation during that time, but free agency and injuries have resulted in Vasquez getting a chance to play a significant role in the Padres’ rotation in 2026. He needs to show manager Craig Stammen and pitching coach Ruben Niebla that he is ready to take earn the spot and handle the challenge that comes from the pressure of being a starter in MLB.

Baseball News:

Commentary: MLB can’t continue like this

A lot of emotions came down the pike when it was reported that Kyle Tucker agreed to what is being touted as a four year, 240 million dollars contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Much of the emotional response could be explained through sticker shock. I don’t think anyone dreamed that Tucker was a 60 million AAV player. I’m sure the Toronto Blue Jays felt they were well within range when they reportedly offered him ten years and 350 million dollars.

So, that is certainly part of our collective emotional response. The second part of that response comes from the fact that it is the Dodgers. I have tried really hard in my life not to hate anyone and for the most part I have succeeded, but sports hate is definitely a thing and the Dodgers are high on that list. It’s not only about success. It is about the whining. However, that’s a different topic for a different day. We could get into the whys and what fors at that time, but I think most of Astros nation is on the same page.

In my childhood, it was the New York Yankees existing as the evil empire. The irony is that they weren’t successful until I was in my twenties. Still, there is the appearance of inevitably. That is what stings days after the news. I can accept a man getting his pay day. Tucker and his agent structured this deal as brilliantly as possible with much of it coming upfront in the form of a signing bonus. So, when labor strife hits following the season, he will have pocketed a good portion of that contract. So, the anger doesn’t sit on Tucker. It sits on the Dodgers and what the league is allowing them to do.

Spotrac.com projects that the Dodgers 2026 payroll will equal 429.9 million dollars in average annual value. The New York Mets are second with 305 million. The Astros are still existing under the competitive balance tax. Six teams are currently above it. It should be noted that three of those six teams are in the AL East. Seven teams are currently below 100 million dollars at the moment. We have not seen this kind of financial disparity for some time.

It would be wrong to say we have never seen it. The Yankees dominated the sport between 1920 and 1964. People often forget the other half of that equation. The Philadelphia Phillies averaged 100 losses a season between 1920 and 1940. Imagine losing 100 games every year for 20 years. What happens to those fanbases? We aren’t quite there, but we are getting closer. The Colorado Rockies have lost 100 or more games three seasons in a row and have averaged 100 losses over the last five. They are the most extreme examples, but everyone can point to teams like the Pirates, Athletics, Nationals, Marlins, and Royals as cities that go long periods of time between competitive teams.

The core of the problem

This is usually where fans start chanting for a salary cap. The problem isn’t that simple. When you look at the salary structures in the NBA and NFL you see that a core part of the process is that both the union and owners know what is in the pot. Negotiating is easier from that point. Owners and players haggle over what percentage the players will get from the pie. In both leagues that tends to cover between 50 and 55 percent of revenues. Most of the negotiations come down to exactly how those percentages will be dolled out.

The core of the problem in MLB is that the owners have never opened their books. We don’t know exactly what the revenues are. We are forced to guess based on fragments of information we get from different sources. If we don’t know then the players also don’t know. That lack of trust clouds any and all negotiations. It prevents the players from agreeing to anything that will potentially restrain spending.

The sum total of salaries according to Spotrac is around 5.3 billion dollars. One can easily guess it will push to around 5.5 billion once Spring Training begins. So, the core of the issue is how players and owners can equitably split that pie. If you limit the upper end then you must do something about the lower end. That’s easier said than done.

Raise the floor

Unfortunately, without knowing total revenues we are left guessing. Even if we agreed that the players deserve 50 percent of revenues we would be left wondering 50 percent of what exactly. However, it seems reasonable to ask the players to keep their overall salary level or slightly increase it in lieu of rolling it back. The problem isn’t the level of player salaries, but how they are being distributed. It is unsustainable for one team to spend 400 million while other teams are spending under 100.

So, the goal is not to limit overall salaries, but to bring the bottom and the top closer together. That would require a salary floor. The question is how to get there. It is not a simple magic wand of saying you have to spend 150 million or 200 million dollars. There is a question of how to get teams the revenue to spend that kind of money. There is also the question of other expenditures teams make. The Rockies famously do not spend money on technology for scouting purposes. Some teams invest more money in international scouting than others. A true cap and floor would have to include total baseball related expenditures.

We are probably looking at a sliding structure similar to what we currently see with the competitive balance tax. Penalties escalate with each season teams exceed the tax. The same could be applied at the bottom. For instance, the St. Louis Cardinals have fallen below the 100 million mark because they have shed a ton of payroll this offseason. That’s different than teams like the Pirates who seemingly live there. Those penalties should reflect that.

Tying up loose ends

That battle will be the headliner for the coming negotiation, but there are other issues as well. The NBA restricts individual salaries. The NFL doesn’t. Is 60 million AAV too much for a player? Heck, Shohei Ohtani is getting 70 million. Naturally, some of their salaries are deferred which is another major concern. We cannot continue where the Dodgers get to skate by some of their tax liabilities by kicking the can down the road. If they want to defer payment to players that is between them and the player, but they should be on the hook for the whole value of the contract.

The other issue will likely involve service time. This is an area where the owners can offer significant change to get concessions from the players. In the NFL and NBA, players get to free agency faster. It is four or five years in the NFL. It is four in the NBA. Moving the service time clock up in baseball would definitely suit the players. A part of the issue is that baseball players have a minor league portion of their careers. Service time could be altered to include that time. That would keep teams from stashing players in the minors to delay their service clock. Instead of making it a hard and fast four seasons you could make it seven total from the date of the draft or signing. Therefore, teams might be more incentivized to promote players when they are ready.

These are all just ideas that are banging around our heads. I am open to any suggestions as to how this situation can change. What isn’t negotiable is business as usual. Whether a Dodgers World Series is actually inevitable is certainly debatable. It feels inevitable and that is all we need to know. If it feels inevitable then fan interest dwindles. If fan interest dwindles then revenues dwindle. That’s obviously bad for everyone involved.

MLB News: Tigers amateur signings, Bo Bichette, Kyle Tucker, Elly De La Cruz, free agent signings

Happy Monday, everyone! The past few days have stoked the flames on the offseason hot stove into a fever pitch (no pun intended, I promise). With the Mets losing out on signing Kyle Tucker, and the Dodgers once again proving they’ll spend whatever it takes to become the next MLB dynasty, we’re seeing a lot of high-priced short-term deals making the rounds. The Mets pivoted, signing Bo Bichette, and it’s making folks wonder what this means for free agency deals and if we’re seeing the new normal in terms of shying away from the longer-term deals.

It remains to be seen, but there’s plenty more juicy tidbits in today’s news breakdown, so let’s just jump right into it.

Detroit Tigers News

AL Central News

MLB News

  • An interesting look at the financial side of running a baseball team.
  • This is genuinely insane.

Yankees Birthday of the Day: Fernando Seguignol

Inevitably with a series such as this one, you’ll find one or two less notorious names to properly fill a list. So in searching for a former Yankee born on January 19th, we ended up with Fernando Seguignol as the chosen player. If you remember his short period with the Yankees, cheers to you for a great memory considering he had all of one major-league hit in his entire semi-interrupted career in pinstripes. That’s still one more than 99.99 percent of us, though.

Fernando Alfredo Seguignol
Born: January 19, 1975 (Bocas del Toro, Panama)
Yankees Tenure: 2003 (also in minors 1993-94)

Three years after the Yankees signed the most famous Panamanian in baseball history, they came to terms with his countryman, Fernando Seguignol. At the time the 18-year-old inked his contract with New York in January 1993, only 37 MLB players had ever hailed from Panama; since then, that figure has expanded to 81, including current Yankees utilityman José Caballero. Seguignol’s father, a longtime Yankees fa, and was absolutely thrilled that his son might one day play for the Bronx Bombers.

Seguignol struggled heavily in his first taste of Rookie ball in ’93, but after putting up a reasonable .767 OPS in short-season ball for Oneonta the following campaign, he raised his stock. It was enough to invoke the interest of the desperate Montreal Expos, and Seguignol was used by the Yankees just before the start of the 1995 campaign to acquire standout closer John Wetteland in a one-for-one deal with cash considerations involved.

Make no mistake: For the Expos, this was not about getting fair prospect value. The consortium of Montreal executives that owned the club informed GM Kevin Malone that he essentially had to sell off some of the best players from the outstanding 1994 club that was MLB’s best when the strike hit. It ended on April 2, 1995, and as MLB hastily organized a short spring training and a reduced 144-game schedule, the Expos executed a fire sale. Wetteland was dealt to the Yankees, Ken Hill went to Cleveland, Marquis Grissom was sent out to Atlanta, and though not traded, the Expos simply refused to offer Larry Walker a contract in arbitration; he signed with the Rockies. Credit Yankees GM Gene Michael for taking advantage of the opportunity, but those were some strange circumstances.

The Yankees had no problem trading a low-minors name for Wetteland, and while he felt hurt at the time, it honestly worked out well for Seguignol too, as he had less of an uphill climb to playing time in Montreal. Standing at six-foot-five, Seguignol had the traditional build of a power-hitting first baseman, but through the early years of his development process as an outfielder in the Expos farm system, he failed to live up to those expectations. It wasn’t until 1998 that Seguignol found his footing in Double-A Harrisburg, slugging over .600 and prompting a rapid rise through the ranks, reaching Triple-A and subsequently the majors for a rather small but quite successful first cup of tea.

Called up in September as part of an Expos team that was going nowhere and wanted to get a look at what they had in young bat, Seguignol earned his first hit as a pinch-hitter on September 10th. A day later, the 23-year-old experienced what had to be one of his most thrilling moments in the bigs, going back-to-back with future Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero, easily the star of that 65-97 club.

It’s relatively telling of both the expectations the Expos had regarding Seguignol and, primarily, the lack of talent around Vlad Sr. that Montreal had their inexperienced first baseman batting fifth, right behind Guerrero, the team’s top hitter.

Despite good numbers in a short sample in 1998, Seguignol started the next year in the minors again, with Brad Fulmer as the Expos’ starting first baseman. Looking back at it, it’s difficult to justify why opportunities were so limited for Seguignol between 1999 and 2000, with him spending more time in the minors than majors, despite a decent .828 OPS in 294 PA between these two seasons and two of his 17 career homers against a prestigious name in Tom Glavine. If you want to be a bit harsher, that OPS isn’t nearly as good as it looks, considering the era (105 OPS+), and with many of those PA coming in left field instead of first base, his original position, the defensive value was virtually nonexistent. The strikeout issues were a problem, which didn’t come as much of a surprise, but the lack of pitch selection, which made for well-below-league-average walk rates, further diminished Seguignol’s floor as a big-league hitter.

Too good for Triple-A but unable to lock down a role in the big leagues, Seguignol was in that dreaded Quad-A state, and at the end of 2001, after receiving only 54 PA in the big leagues, he decided to give Japan a try. Seguignol’s strikeout woes made the trip with him however, and the power output wasn’t enough for the Orix BlueWave to justify giving him a full-time role.

Going back to where it first started, Seguignol signed with the Yankees after a short stint in Japan. Although his time with the big league club was short-lived and not particularly memorable, Seguignol’s campaign with the Yankees’ Triple-A team in Columbus was a great one.

As a 28-year-old, the Panamanian had an OPS above 1.000 and nearly won the Triple-A Triple Crown that year by hitting .341/.401/.624 with 28 homers in 106 games. Called up in September, Seguignol went 1-for-7 in the majors with no extra-base hits; his lone career big-league knock in pinstripes came in a post-clinch start on a ground-ball single against the Orioles’ Rodrigo Lopez.

Carrying over the success he had with the Yankees in Triple-A back in 2003, Seguignol returned to Japan, this time signing with the Nippon Ham Fighters. There, he immediately became one of the more dangerous bats in the NPB, hitting 44 home runs in his first season back in Japan — a new record for a switch-hitter. Although he could never quite replicate those numbers, Seguignol remained an important player for the Ham Fighters during four full seasons. Afterwards, he bounced around in Mexico, the minors, signing deals with the Rockies and Tigers without returning to the bigs, and also in the NPB again.

Returning from Japan in 2010 with the Indy ball Newark Bears, Seguignol would play his final season in 2011, featuring as one of the premier names for another Atlantic League club, the Lancaster Barnstormers. That wrapped up a near-20-year professional career. A switch-hitter who learned that trait when he was already in the minors, Seguignol couldn’t build the MLB résumé that he might’ve envisioned in the bigs. However, in Japan, he made history as one of the more fearsome switch-hitters in the history of the NPB, recording 172 homers in 767 games.

Following his playing career, Seguignol stayed involved in the baseball world. He worked for the Yomiuri Giants and the Cubs before landing a job with the Marlins as director of international operations. Hired by old teammate Derek Jeter in 2017 when the former Yankees captain got involved in Miami, Seguignol held the position until being let go in 2021. Wherever he is now, here’s hoping he has a nice 51st birthday ahead of him.


See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Monday Morning Texas Rangers Update

Good morning.

Shawn McFarland writes that the Texas Rangers added to their bullpen yesterday by signing right-hander Jakob Junis on a one-year deal.

Kennedi Landry has more on the Junis signing and what it means for Chris Young and crew’s latest full bullpen rebuild.

The DMN has five things to know about Junis who pitched for the Guardians last season, meaning he’s kind of a one-for-one swap with Shawn Armstrong.

ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez checks in on the AL West squads to see where they stand here a month away from spring training games.

R.J. Anderson ranks the top 20 prospects in the AL West with Sebastian Walcott topping the list among the division.

And, Evan Grant notes that the Rangers are changing things up with their winter caravan after getting sick of seeing the same autograph hounds every year.

Have a nice day!

Do You Think the Phillies are the Division Favorites?

To state the obvious: the mood in the Phillies fandom has not been overly sanguine in the past few days. The Phillies missed a chance to get better with Bo Bichette, while their rivals in Queens did not. There are still plenty of reasons to believe in the Phillies as a major contender for next year, despite that. The power is still there in the lineup. The rotation has healthy stars in Christopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo, with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola as major weapons should they recover and return to form, respectively. The bullpen may be better than last year.

But the division won’t be easy. The Mets have major questions, especially in the rotation, but Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, and Bo Bichette make for a powerful combo. The Braves haven’t quite looked like themselves for the past season or two, but they’re still a major threat. The Nationals and Marlins still seem to be a few seasons away, but they have good young talent. Does all this leave the Phillies as the favorites to win the division? Or does a disappointing offseason and an extra year of age on the lineup move someone else into the drivers seat?

Today’s question is: Do you think the Phillies are still favorites to win the National League East?

Arizona Diamondbacks News, 1/19: Blast from the Past

Team news

[MLB] From World Series winner to sausage meister: A visit to Byung-hyun Kim’s German restaurant – “When I was playing in the States, any time families and friends would come, I would take them out to a restaurant that I recommended. I saw the joy that people felt from having good food,” Kim said. “That’s where it all started.” He began with three sushi restaurants in San Diego – today there is only one, Umi Sushi – before he followed his teenage dream and opened a handful of burger and hot dog joints, with two of the locations inside KBO stadiums at the Gocheok Sky Dome and Changwon NC Park. “The inspiration was Gonzo’s Grill in Arizona at Chase Field,” Kim said. “I saw that and I really wanted to replicate it and have a burger joint at a baseball stadium.”

[AZ Big Media] Merrill Kelly returns to the Diamondbacks for his family – His family’s thrilled to be back in the Valley. Korean cuisine has become an occasional stop, indulged in “probably a little more than we should,” Kelly joked. “We don’t venture out much unless we have to,” he said at first. “I’m a big golfer. If I do go somewhere, at least on my own, it’s usually the golf course. “We found a couple spots that we really like. There’s a place in Mesa, Jin BBQ, [near Mekong Plaza] that we like. There’s an H Mart, which is a big Korean grocery store. It’s good to be back.”

[Dbacks.com] Marte plan unchanged in face of Bregman, Suárez signings – If you’re holding your breath on them bringing in a bona fide closer at this point, well … don’t. “Would I like to have somebody that has a clear pedigree of pitching in the eighth and ninth inning?” Hazen said. “That’s an easier answer. I’m not sure what we’ll have access to in that way. I think if we continue to build out talent in the bullpen, this bullpen is going to be good in time as we move through the season. We’re going to obviously be getting guys back as we move through the season, so I think the talent is naturally going to improve as we move through the year.”

[New Baseball Media] 2025 MLB Farm Review: Arizona Diamondbacks – There is a new #1 atop the Diamondbacks’ farm system. It’s close between Waldschmidt and Caldwell, two different outfielders. Both are fantastic at getting on base and swiping bases, Caldwell more than the former. However, Waldschmidt is a formidable power hitter, moreso than Caldwell. After that, we’ll go with Cunningham at #3. Kohl Drake, acquired last summer as part of the Merrill Kelly, was a strong swing-and-miss pitcher in the Rangers’ organization. has a diverse & modern pitch arsenal, regularly using both a four-seamer and two-seamer.

And, elsewhere…

[Just Baseball] Top 20 MLB Free Agents With Contract and Team PredictionsZac Gallen – Two-year, $54 million deal, opt-out after 2026, Orioles, we now have Gallen signing with a team that has been very aggressive this offseason. My initial contract prediction has aged well, as the market has stalled on Gallen and he could be forced to take a two-year deal with an opt-out. Paul Goldschmidt – One-year, $5 million, D-backs. Goldschmidt is looking like a great fit in Arizona. With the left-handed hitting Pavin Smith set to start at first base, Goldy could form a platoon there, or could even push Smith to DH some if they wanted him to play every day. If this is the last season of Goldschmidt’s career, there would not be a better place for him.

[MLB Trade Rumors] Elly De La Cruz Declined Franchise-Record Offer From Reds – While details were sparse at the time, president of baseball operations Nick Krall revealed today the team made an official offer that would have topped their 10-year, $225MM franchise-record deal with Joey Votto. “We made Elly an offer that would’ve made him the highest-paid Red ever,” Krall said (link via C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic). “That’s not where he is and you respect that. It’s their career. You keep going and you keep working on what you can do today.” De La Cruz opted not to go into specifics, telling fans at Redsfest only that he leaves contractual matters to his agent, Scott Boras.

[NY Post] Jazz Chisholm Jr. joining Great Britain for 2026 World Baseball Classic – Jazz Chisholm Jr. has committed to suit up for Great Britain, as WBC reporter Shawn Spradling reported Friday, giving the Yankees [and former D-back!] second baseman a chance to play on the big stage this spring. Great Britain delegation head Gary Anderson and manager Brady Marcelino said last month at the Winter Meetings that there was strong interest in having Chisholm — who is entering his walk year — on the team; it was just a matter of working through eligibility and insurance, which has evidently been approved. The Bahamas native played for Great Britain in the WBC qualifiers as an 18-year-old in 2016.

The Rip (2026)

Dir: Joe Carnahan
Star: Matt Damon, Ben Affleck, Stephen Yuen, Scott Adkins

a.k.a. Cops Yelling: The Movie. Or perhaps it just seems that way, because nobody here seems to use their inside voice. However, it’s still decently entertaining, in a “Saturday night and I just want something mindless” way… It’s nice to see Damon and Affleck working together again: they’re the Peter Cushing and Christopher Lee of contemporary urban thrillers. Carnahan, too, has certainly come a long way since Blood Guts Bullets & Octane. Probably inevitably, the Netflix sausage machine has knocked off the rough edges of personality, in favor of smooth, slick and ultimately forgettable product. Though, as ever, the “based on real events” tag is more marketing than reality.

Read more

Orioles offensive outlook hinges on improvement from Holliday and Westburg

There are many reasons for the Orioles failure in 2025. Injuries piled up. The rotation was too thin. And a little bad luck certainly contributed. But perhaps the most disappointing part of the entire squad was the offense, a largely homegrown unit that was supposed to be the backbone of the team’s championship window. Instead, it collapsed.

Orioles President of Baseball Operations Mike Elias did quite a bit of work to improve the lineup this offseason. Most notably, he signed first baseman Pete Alonso to a five-year, $155 million contract with the expectation that he will hit 35+home runs in the middle of the order for years to come. Prior to that, he traded for Taylor Ward, a pending free agent that has hit 61 home runs over the last two seasons.

In short order, Elias injected power back into an Orioles lineup that sorely needed it. They had dropped from third in MLB in slugging (.435) in 2024 down to 19th (.394) in 2025. Some of that was due to the loss of Anthony Santander to free agency, and the rest was caused by underperformance from just about everyone else that stuck around. Bringing in external talent will help to a point, but the ceiling of this team will depend on what the players that were already in-house can do to bounce back. Two players, in particular, stand out.

Hip hip Holliday

The rare Oriole that actually improved in 2025 was Jackson Holliday. The former top prospect had a rough go in his rookie season of 2024, getting an early-season call-up, only to struggle mightily, go back to Triple-A Norfolk, and then return with some inconsistent performances through season’s end. He ended that year with a paltry .189/.255/.311 slash line.

In 2025, the Orioles cleared the deck for Holliday so that he could be their clear everyday second baseman. The results were…better. Over 149 games, he hit .242/.314/.375 with 17 home runs and a 95 OPS+. All in, that is a slightly below league-average hitter, but that OPS+ was a 32-point improvement from his rookie campaign. There was plenty to be encouraged by. He showed solid control of the strike zone, never looked out of his depth the way he often did in ‘24, and stayed at the big league level all season long.

There is no indication that the Orioles are wavering on Holliday’s potential. With spring training around the corner, he remains the only everyday option at second base on the roster. And while the team has continued to pursue high-end pitching through the winter, Holliday’s name has not been mentioned in any public trade rumors. He is poised to play a ton of baseball in Baltimore once again in 2026.

It has become commonplace for this era of Orioles prospects to scuffle right at the start of their big league careers, only to figure things out a bit more in years two and three. Holliday is in a good position to have the same experience.

Westburg, straight ahead

Elsewhere on the infield is a player that has had no such issue with big league pitching. In fact, he’s already made an all-star team and owns a career 116 OPS+. He’s not bad with the leather either. A Gold Glove isn’t out of the question before his career ends. That is, if he could only stay healthy.

Jordan Westburg missed time on three different occasions in 2025. He was out from late April through early June with a hamstring strain, lost a few games in June and July with a finger injury, and then sprained his ankle in mid-August, keeping him on the shelf until mid-September. All of those injuries limited him to just 85 total games.

Despite that, Westburg tied for the team lead in home runs (17) hit last year, alongside Holliday and Gunnar Henderson, who each played in 149 or more games. It doesn’t feel like a coincidence that the team’s worst month of the year (May), was the one that Westburg missed completely.

It’s unlikely that Westburg was ever truly healthy in 2025. Even still, he was productive, posting a solid .265/.313/.457 slash line with a 114 OPS+, and the aforementioned 17 home runs. Defensively, he graded out well, accumulating 3 outs above average, according to Baseball Savant.

On top of that, he maintained his 29 feet per second sprint speed (89th percentile in MLB), which is well above the league average (27 ft/sec), and among the very best at third base. In fact, no other third baseman had a faster time from home plate to first base (4.23 seconds) than Westburg, which is extremely impressive for a right-handed hitter.

All of the tools are there for Westburg to be the type of player that makes all-star teams on a yearly basis and might even get down-ballot MVP consideration some seasons. But he has to stay on the field for any of that to happen.

Table setters

Holliday and Westburg are not the only two hitters on the Orioles roster that need to improve going into 2026 if the team’s hopes of returning to the postseason are going to come true. But they are the two on the roster for which that jump in performance feels the most attainable.

Holliday has already shown he can develop at the major league level. Year two was a humble one in terms of production, but the growth was clear. Now he has a base from which he can build. FanGraphs calculated that he was worth 1.2 WAR in 2024. Many of their projection systems believe he could double that value in 2026, ranging from 2.3 to 3.1 WAR. A performance like that would have him in the all-star conversation, and maybe even some position-specific awards come October. An even bigger jump than that is also possible. After all, he was the absolute top prospect in baseball not so long ago. But let’s see pump the brakes a bit.

Westburg should have no doubt about his ability to be one of the best third basemen in the game. He has already done it, albeit for brief moments. Now it’s about staying off the IL, which can be a skill of sorts that players develop as they get more experience in the game. You can’t eliminate injury risk, but you may be able to mitigate it with adjustments to playing style. Whatever can be done, should be done. The Orioles are a much better team with Westburg in the lineup. If he plays in 130+ games, he is nearly a lock to be a 3.5+ WAR player, and maybe even better.

Lineups obviously aren’t set in stone, but right now the Roster Resource tool at FanGraphs projects the Orioles everyday offense to include Holliday as the leadoff man, a role he handled many times in 2025, and Westburg in the second spot. Right behind them is Henderson at three, with Alonso in the clean-up role. Maybe you like Westburg better in the leadoff spot with Holliday farther down the order, but at the very least that projection illustrates the pair’s expected importance to the team.

In theory, that sounds like a fearsome quartet to face right out of the gate. But it gets far less scary if Holliday can’t continue to grow and Westburg is on the IL more than the infield. The outcome of the 2026 Orioles is not entirely on the duo’s shoulders, but they will need to bare quite a bit of weight.

What will Drake Baldwin produce in 2026?

Prior entries:

Back when I was updating IWAG in earnest, one of the flags or parameters that I put in was essentially a confidence rating — not just of the point estimate, but the distribution. Not surprisingly, my work and research indicated that it is a lot easier to forecast the upcoming season of a player with at least a handful of MLB seasons under their belts. Younger players, or more accurately, less experienced players, posed a relative challenge. Trying to forecast a to-debut rookie was a nightmare, but second-year players weren’t much better. (I remember a study a while ago by either Tom Tango or Mitchel Lichtman, or maybe both of them, that indicated that assuming league average for a given to-debut rookie ended up less wrong than trying to use their minor league stats and other parameters to actually forecast their performance.)

Unfortunately for me, and for you, if you care about forecasting, Drake Baldwin is a second-year player. His rookie year was great, one of the few things that actually worked in the Braves’ favor in 2025, and now there’s a question of whether he’ll maintain that hardware-and-Prospect Promotion Incentive-winning performance, improve upon it, or backslide for whatever reason.

Career-to-date, status, and recent performance

Baldwin was drafted in the third round of the 2022 MLB Draft, spent the bulk of his first full professional season in High-A, and moved up to Triple-A on a full-time basis midway through 2024, after fewer than 300 PAs in Double-A. The Braves have, historically, promoted guys they expected to be key performers without needing them to pay their dues or pad their stats in Triple-A, but Baldwin wasn’t earmarked for a big league role until Sean Murphy got hurt in Spring Training 2025. Given that Baldwin spent much of 2024 destroying Triple-A pitching, their hand was basically forced — which, as you can tell from how 2025 played out, is not always a bad thing.

Baldwin finished 2025 with 3.1 fWAR in 446 PAs, a pretty sexy WAR-per-600-PAs rate of about 4.2. Catchers can achieve high WAR/600 rates by virtue of the positional adjustment for donning the tools of ignorance (about 1.3 WAR/600 alone) and playing decent defense, but Baldwin DHed a fair bit and was below-average defensively, such that his offense was about three times as valuable as his defense in terms of performance above average.

That offense was revelatory, in part because Baldwin, with seemingly little effort, resembled a paragon of what the 2025 Braves were hoping to sculpt of their hitters: he walked at an average rate, struck out way less than average, and made a ton of contact while maintaining above-average oomph on said contact. While many Braves hitters had long swings that they whipped through the zone, basically leveraging delta-vee to their benefit when connecting, Baldwin kept the bat speed aspect but relied on a shorter swing that seemed to have few ill effects on his power production while allowing him to mitigate swing-and-miss. He obliterated four-seamers (.419 xwOBA) and had no issues with sliders (.365) — in a somewhat-crazy development, he managed a .370 xwOBA against sliders when lacking the platoon advantage. His issue was changeups, but which is not surprising given that he’s a lefty-batting rookie.

He was also pretty consistent, or at least, consistently valuable. His worst monthly xwOBA was .321, when he wore down a bit in September. He had one really great month, with a near-.400 xwOBA in May, but had three others where he was solidly at .350 or above. Defensively, it was more of a mixed bag: he has great mechanics in terms of positioning himself to block and throw, but lacked zip on his throws. In terms of framing, he really struggled to be convincing when he had to reach for the ball — either above the zone or, more critically, across his body. It’s the sort of thing that can probably be fixed mechanically, though I’m not exactly sure whether the Braves are equipped to do that well given the whole William Contreras thing.

Forecasting

So, how do you take this and shove it into 2026? It’s tempting to just say the status quo will prevail — it gives Baldwin the credit for his offensive performance, prevents assuming any uptick defensively, and precludes any headache that one could get from trying to figure out how much Baldwin will or not will be DHing by simply setting it equal to the same rate of catcher-versus-DH breakdown in 2025. Adjustments after using 2025 as a starting point might be easy to eyeball… or not.

For a projection system, well, I think things go back to my first paragraph here: how much do you regress to the mean given how good Baldwin was in 2025? Something is probably warranted, and there’s a big issue that is hard to implement effectively regarding the huge swing in positional adjustment between catcher and DH, which are the two positions that Baldwin will likely play heavily in 2026. IWAG’s best attempt is below, and it’s not really that heartening…

As you can see, IWAG applied some regression to the mean offensively. But, a similarly chunky hit came from something akin to a 2-to-1 split between catcher and DH — which is really different from 2025. Last year, Baldwin only had 52 PAs as a DH, less than one-in-eight if you ignore his pinch-hitting appearances. This year, unless Sean Murphy ends up being a non-entity, 2ish-to-1ish is punishing for Baldwin on a value basis, but it’s hard to assume he’ll hit 500-plus PAs without a breakdown like that.

As far as distributions go, this is a fun one, which is another way of saying, “yeah, IWAG has no idea.” There just isn’t too much to go off of that would cabin the range, and the catcher-versus-DH thing causes a lot of issues that requires pontificating on Sean Murphy’s health and whether any other player gets ensconced at DH, neither of which IWAG is actually capable of doing in a projection for Drake Baldwin.

Your turn

Alright, I’ve given you the info. Well, some info. You may have your own info. With that, I ask you:

  • Rounded to the nearest fWAR, how much will Drake Baldwin produce in 2026?
  • How confident are you in your choice? Go with a scale from 1-5, where 3 is “I dunno, reasonably confident,” 5 is certain, and 1 is “I am participating but have no confidence in my choice and don’t want the fact that it will likely be incorrect to affect my place in any theoretical standings all that much.”
    • Guys, seriously, stop picking numbers that aren’t a whole WAR, though if you do, it’s not like you’ll remember my forced adjustment to it when I score these next autumn anyway.

Mets Morning News: Botential

Meet the Mets

With Bo Bichette suddenly in the Mets infield, the future of Brett Baty and other potential Mets to come leave the roster in a state of flux with a month to go until pitchers and catchers report.

Around the National League East

Ha-Seong Kim slipped on some ice in Korea, tore a tendon in his right middle finger, and will be out until the summer comes, leaving an opening on the Atlanta infield.

The Nationals and Cade Cavalli avoided arbitration with a contract for 2026 and an option for the 2027 season.

Around Major League Baseball

Does it make you better at baseball if you have [Al Pacino Heat voice] A GREAT ASS?

Wilbur Wood, a man who once threw 376 innings in a season and will undoubtably be the last man in the history of baseball to both win and lose 20 games in the same season, died at 84.

Mookie Betts announced his retirement…and the end of the 2032 season when his contract expires.

Upon making what they consider to be their best and final offer, the Yankees have no interest in getting into a bidding war for Cody Bellinger and are prepared to let him go elsewhere.

Owner of 667 games played and a 2022 World Series ring, Ryan Pressly, announced his retirement from baseball and will immediately be switching to the team side and working with the Minnesota Twins.

Former starter and current reliever Jacob Junis is heading to the Texas Rangers on a deal for one year and $4M.

This Date in Mets History

On this date five years ago, the Mets fired general manager Jared Porter one month and six days into his tenure.

Atlanta Braves News: Ha-Seong Kim, Trade Candidates, More

Even though the calendar says 2026, Sunday unfortunately felt a lot like 2025 for the Braves. Ha-Seong Kim, whom the Braves resigned this offseason, will now miss a good portion of the 2026 season with a torn finger tendon. It was a freak injury that occurred when Kim slipped on a piece of ice in his native Korea.

As a result, it will be interesting to see how the Braves respond to the injury in terms of adding infield depth to the roster. With Mauricio Dubon likely playing short as the starter, the Braves could look at different options to add SS depth to the organization.

MLB News

MLB.com looks at some of the biggest potential trade candidates for the 2026 season.

It appears that the next big domino to fall on the FA market is Cody Bellinger. The Yankees currently have a modified offer out to Bellinger, including opt-outs. However, it has been reported in recent days they feel he could sign elsewhere.