Category: Baseball

At the beginning of May, the Orioles got their butts kicked for four straight games by the Yankees and they needed to act immediately to prevent the season from spiraling out of control. The O’s managed to do this in winning two of the next three series, including getting some revenge against the Yankees. A struggle of a series facing a poor Nationals pitching staff and a sweep at the hands of the Rays later and the Orioles are back in a tailspin that could prove fatal to their hopes of being able to eventually go somewhere good this year.

If you are reading this hoping to feel better about the Orioles, I am probably not your guy. I am feeling bad about this team. It’s looking increasingly like, for a second consecutive year, they ain’t got it. They should have it. Some of their weaknesses should be their strengths instead. Other things among their weaknesses are going worse than even most pessimists would have predicted. Who to blame for all of this and what to do about it are the subjects of daily argument. Nobody with influence to change things seems to know how to make that happen.

Perhaps at least this weekend will go better for the Orioles. One thing working in their favor is that they are back at Camden Yards, where they are playing at a .500 clip so far this season. Another is that they are playing the Tigers, one of the teams with an even worse record than the O’s themselves have. Detroit has lost its last six games and 14 of its last 16. They were above .500 before this began and now they’re 20-31.

The story of Detroit’s season seems to be the disappointment from its offense, even though they have two great young hitters. 25-year-old outfielder Riley Greene is currently on pace to have the best-hitting year of his five MLB seasons. They debuted a top infield prospect, Kevin McGonigle, early this season, who is already worth 2.7 bWAR in 49 games of his rookie season. That’s basically the guy we wanted Jackson Holliday to be, and unlike Holliday, McGonigle has just showed up and he is doing great. That’s a good start to a good offense.

The problem is nearly every other Tigers hitter. There are some brutal batting splits kicking around, with several Tigers position players among the worst that MLB has to offer so far this season. This includes former Oriole Jahmai Jones, former #1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson, outfielder Wenceel Pérez, and utilityman Zach McKinstry. The best OPS of the players I just named is Torkelson at .681. The others are far worse; they’d fit in with the biggest Orioles strugglers like Tyler O’Neill and Colton Cowser. Pérez is kind of impressively already at a -1.1 bWAR.

Things are going better for Detroit’s pitching staff. Orioles fans looking at the team’s 4.97 ERA have got to be envious of the Tigers having a team ERA nearly a full run lower. How much of this is difference is an “invisible” gap in defensive quality is not something I can say because I don’t watch the Tigers.

They’ve had their share of pitching problems even through the overall quality. Two-time Cy Young Tarik Skubal is out due to surgery for loose bodies in his elbow. The feel-good late-career reunion with Justin Verlander halted after one terrible start. Free agent addition Framber Valdez has a 4.58 ERA through ten games. We’ll see him in this series. Some of their bullpen guys suck. But then, some of every bullpen’s guys suck.

Like the Orioles, this team probably “should” be better than it is. It’s not. One team may come away from this series feeling a little better about itself. Unless the weekend’s weather forecast leads to the teams playing only two games right now and they split the two games they actually play. That wouldn’t do much to feed into anybody’s narrative.

Game 1 – Friday, 7:05

• BAL starter: Chris Bassitt – 5.44 ERA, 4.74 FIP, 1.698 WHIP in 43 IP
• DET starter: Jack Flaherty – 5.77 ERA, 5.03 FIP, 1.603 WHIP in 43.2 IP

Note: This game is on Apple TV. No other TV broadcast will be available.

A theme I return to a lot when I think about these Orioles is that even pessimists could not have predicted these specific outcomes. I mentioned it above and here as I think about Bassitt it is on my mind again. I didn’t like the signing because I thought the Orioles needed to aim higher than stabilizing their back end. Yet even for that, a mid-5s ERA heading into Memorial Day weekend would have surprised me. I figured he might slide into the 4.5 range.

Maybe that’s where he’ll end up by season’s end. Maybe it’s the defense’s fault that he’s not there right now. I don’t know. What I do know is that his strikeout rate has been cut by close to a third compared to a year ago, while at the same time his walk rate has increased by about a third. That’s a tough combination, so even though his BABIP is crazy high (.352) and that’s probably not all his fault, there’s a lot that he could be doing to help his own cause that he’s not doing. Currently not looking like a great use of $18.5 million or a roster spot.

For the Tigers starter Flaherty, that’s a familiar-feeling ERA if you remember his short tenure here. He is failing in a different way than he did with the Orioles. The 2025 issue for Flaherty is that he’s walking way too many guys, handing out one walk roughly every seven batters. Whether Orioles who are not named Taylor Ward can take advantage of this may be one of the keys to success for the game.

Game 2 – Saturday, 4:05

• BAL starter: Brandon Young – 4.25 ERA, 5.23 FIP, 1.483 WHIP in 29.2 IP
• DET starter: Framber Valdez – 4.58 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 1.400 WHIP in 55 IP

At the end of spring training, if you had told me that Young would already have six starts with more coming, I wouldn’t have had a hard time picturing a disaster regarding the Orioles rotation. It has indeed been disastrous, but to be fair to Young, he hasn’t been one of the disastrous parts up to this point. Most likely he’s getting lucky. That’s a big gap between the ERA and the FIP. His strikeout/walk ratio is bad. Still, if he was the fifth-best Orioles starter, this season would probably be going fine. The problem is he’s the second best by ERA so far.

If you checked in on Valdez’s stats at the end of April, when he had a 3.35 ERA, you were probably quite upset that the Orioles didn’t sign him. He got socked in his first May start and hasn’t pitched well enough yet to recover a lower ERA. For the curious, Boston’s Ranger Suárez has a 2.40 ERA and Dylan Cease of the Blue Jays is at a 2.98. Adding either one of these guys to the Orioles rotation wouldn’t solve all of the problems they’ve had so far, but it would solve at least one.

Game 3 – Sunday, 1:35

• BAL starter: Trevor Rogers – 6.87 ERA, 4.35 FIP, 1.658 WHIP in 38 IP
• DET starter: TBD

No one should have believed that Rogers was just going to come out and drop another sub-2 ERA. I don’t think anyone believed that. Here’s another one for the “Not even the pessimists…” category. An ERA that rounds up to 7? Really? You could have thought that relying on Rogers at the top of the rotation was foolish and that the Orioles not acting to bolster the front of the rotation was a bad decision. Many people thought that and they certainly look like they were right.

Still, after last year, of course the 2026 Orioles rotation plan included Rogers in some capacity. That was always going to be the case. And like so many other guys who are undershooting even pessimistic projections, here he is. Put him at Brandon Young’s 4.25 ERA and he’s still massively disappointing after last year, and he’s more than two and a half runs worse than that.

There was no way to plan for that possibility, and at this moment, with even Cade Povich and Dean Kremer on the injured list, there’s not much way to adapt to it by kicking Rogers from the rotation even if that was an unquestionably good idea on its own merits. Everyone involved just has to hope for magical improvement.

As of this writing, it’s TBD for Detroit. TBD will probably not turn into Casey Mize, who pitched in Thursday’s game. That’s good news for the Orioles in that Mize is the best of the active Tigers pitchers. He’s sporting a 2.47 ERA across eight starts.

**

Here is another time where they have to make a stand. The Tigers are reeling. The Orioles need to make that continue. If they can’t even capitalize on that opportunity, how are we supposed to believe that they will do anything good with the season beyond Memorial Day? There’s also the basic math aspect of it. Even if they turn things around later, losing two of three this weekend would put the team at 22-31. As with last year, that’s a deep hole to escape over the remainder of the season.

How do you think this series will go? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.

Former Major Leaguer Ryan Sweeney, who serves as studio analyst on Chicago’s Marquee Sports Network, sits down to preview the Astros upcoming series with the Cubs at historic Wrigley Field.    

Q:  When it’s all said and done, could the Cubs have the best rotation in all of baseball this season?

A:  Cubs have had a lot of pitching injuries so to say they have the best rotation in baseball would be a stretch. With Boyd and Steele and Cade Horton out they have been piecing it together, but up until last night Shota had been pitching like a true ace. Also to think where they would be without Ben Brown and Colin Rea, they have been great.

Q:  Does something just seem “right” in the universe when the Cubs are playing a string of day games at Wrigley?

A:  Yes.  Day games at Wrigley are the best especially when you are the home team.   The Cubs had won 15 in a row at Wrigley up until Monday Night when that was halted.   I think everyone coming into town loves day games as well because Wrigley is a special place.

Q:  Astros fans miss Alex Bregman and justifiably so.  How has he made the transition to the Northside?     

A:  Alex is a great dude and I have had some interactions with him especially with the racehorses haha I own some as well . He’s just a winner and I think people respect that . That being said, with the big contract people expect him to produce.

He is a historically slow starter but has been swinging the bat better as of late, and I expect his numbers to be great by the end of the year . But I also think he loves Chicago and the team all gets along and has a good vibe together .

Thursday was a lighter day on the Major League schedule, though the Yankees still had time to squeeze in a tough loss. The Bombers mustered just three hits at the plate and spoiled a solid Carlos Rodón start in their 2-0 loss at the hands of the Blue Jays. The loss locked in a split of their four-game series, but the task becomes even taller this weekend, as they welcome the Rays into Yankee Stadium for a huge series.

Elsewhere, it was a short day on the American League schedule, with just some movement in the Central taking place in the afternoon. Here’s a look at how things shook out. Spoiler alert: We will at least temporarily be bidding adieu to the Tigers from this daily feature after today unless they’re playing someone relevant because boy are they ugly right now.

Cleveland Guardians (30-22) 3, Detroit Tigers (20-31) 1

In some Thursday afternoon action in the American League Central, the Guardians sat in the driver’s seat wire to wire against the Tigers. It was a rather quiet affair on the offensive side, one that grew Cleveland’s lead in the division, as well as Detroit’s depth in the basement.

This one pitted Casey Mize against Joey Cantillo, both of whom have enjoyed terrific starts to the 2026 season on the mound. In line with what we’ve seen thus far, both hurlers continued that trend on Thursday. For the Guardians, Cantillo made his 11th start of the season a good one. The 26-year-old lefty tossed 5.2 scoreless innings, allowing just three hits and striking out six.

For Detroit, Mize had the good stuff going for the most part as well. The former first overall draft pick is enjoying easily the best season of his career to this point in year six, and Thursday’s performance did little to tarnish that thought. The right-hander worked two spotless frames to begin the outing, before the Guardians kicked off scoring in the third inning. With two quick outs already on the board, Brayan Rocchio was the rally starter, pitching in with a double, quickly being scored by another two-bagger from Daniel Schneemann. Before the inning was over, José Ramírez upped the Cleveland lead to 2-0 with a single into left field.

Aside from the two-out rally the Guards staged against him, Mize’s afternoon was another good one, as he ended up working 6.2 quality innings against his division’s first place club, with the two runs in the third inning being the only real mark on his record for the day.

Cantillo exited the game for Cleveland in the sixth, after recording a pair of outs, though the Tigers’ bats wouldn’t have much more luck against their bullpen. In the top half of the eighth, the Guardians tacked on some insurance against Burch Smith out of the Detroit ‘pen, when former Platinum Glover Patrick Bailey swatted his second homer of the season, a solo shot.

The Tigers finally woke up a bit in the eighth inning. Squaring off against Tim Herrin, Dillon Dingler led off the inning with a solo shot of his own, his ninth long ball of the 2026 season.

Despite a little bit of life out of the Tigers late in the game, it was too little, too late. Hunter Gaddis came in for the ninth out of the Guardians’ bullpen, the sixth pitcher they used in the game, and quickly locked things down for the save. The win marked the 30th for the Guardians in 2026, while the Tigers fall to 11 games below .500, as they find themselves in last place in the AL Central.

After a short schedule on Thursday, the Blue Jays will welcome the Pirates while the Rays head to Yankee Stadium for some important weekend series.

It’s Friday, usually the day after my day to do the game recap. They didn’t win because they did’t play, but I have yet to write a winning game recap this season. Well, I won’t be writing a losing one next week – they’re off again on Thursday.

As such, I’m feeling a little grouchy. Okay, more than a little. It’s cloudy outside, it’s in the 60s the day before most pools open, the Timberwolves are out of the playoffs and miles behind the Spurs and Thunder, I’m currently in a reading funk, there’s no new episode of Widow’s Bay (my new fave show, which you should totes watch) until next week, and oh the Royals are awful.

Yes, awful. They’re losing a ton of games, and they’re not even fun to watch. Bad pitching, bad hitting, bad baserunning (okay, atrocious baserunning), and bad defense. To boot, they have a bad manager and a bad front office.

Outside of Bobby Witt Jr., there’s not really a reason to watch this team. It’s a collective group of disappointments.

But what player has been the biggest disappointment?

I have five candidates—three everyday players and two starting pitchers—for the offending dishonor, and at the end, Dear Reader, you’ll get to decide via vote. I’m taking these guys in alphabetical order. Bear witness.

Jac Caglianone

Jac is the only one of the five candidates with a positive bWAR, which is currently at 0.8. The 23-year-old right fielder looks better than he did last year, but that’s a low bar. He’s still striking out entirely too much (30%!) while his on-base percentage is sub-optimal. Luck seems to be on his side, too, as he’s hitting .344 (as compared to .172 last year) on balls in play.

Despite a couple of bloop singles last night, he looks horrible against lefties. For the year, he’s slashing .205/.225/.333 against southpaws with only three extra-base hits. His last at-bat against the Red Sox ended with the expected, an ugly whiff against the lefty Jovani Moran.

As noted, he does have a positive WAR, and he has improved over his trainwreck of a rookie season. But he’s still not tearing it up, he’s not the power threat the Royals need him to be, and seems to take personally every out he makes. Add in that the guy taken right after him in the 2024 draft is rocking it across the state, and yeah, Jac’s leaving a bit to be desired.

Noah Cameron

The Royals would not have finished 2025 with a winning record were it not for Noah Cameron. With the pitching staff injured, maligned, or otherwise ineffective, Cameron sparkled during his rookie season, finishing 4th in the American League Rookie of the Year voting as he went 9-7 with a 2.99 ERA across 24 starts and 138.1 innings pitched.

It’s been a quick, precipitous fall in 2026 for the local kid.

Cameron’s started all eight of his appearances this season, but his ERA’s jumped to 5.40. To his credit, Cameron has actually lowered his FIP and increased his strikeout rate but he’s also walking more batters and surrendering 10.6 hits per nine innings, an increase of over three hits per nine from last year.

His biggest culprit are the balls hit in play against him. Last year batters slashed .214/.279/.361 against him with over 41% of batted balls being hit on the ground. This season, those numbers are much worse for Cameron. Now, batters are lighting him up to the tune of .287/.337/.468. Groundballs have decreased by nearly 11% while hard-hit balls have increased over 6%—from 37.4% to 43.8%. Line drives are up 9%.

It’s great that Cameron remains durable while the pitching staff takes some hits, but with a fully healthy staff, he’s probably relegated to the bullpen.

Vinnie Pasquantino

Strangeness is that Vinnie is struggling so badly while madness is that whoever fills out the lineup card—and I have my doubts that it’s Quatraro 100% of the time—keeps putting him in the middle of the order.

Vinnie’s struggles feel more than him being a slow starter. Not only does he look frustrated out on the diamond—which is understandable—he looks lost. Is he pressing? I mean, I get it if he is. He’s supposed to be one of the team leaders, and it’s hard to lead with an OPS 28% below league average. Is he hurt? What’s up with him?

Whatever the reason, Pasquantino, 28 and arbitration-eligible for the next two years, is having the worst year of his career when the Royals obviously need to him to have…not the worst year of his career. Of the three batters on this list, I’m most confident of Vinnie to snap out of it, but time’s running out for that to make much of a difference.

Salvador Perez

Did Salvy’s tweet, or X post, about not needing a mental breather sour him to anyone else? I lost not a small amount of respect for him when he used social media to express his disagreement with getting an off day. That type of exchange needs to occur behind closed doors, not in the open.

Aside from that, I went into Perez at length when I posited some ways for the Royals to handle their aging slugger. He’s had two multi-hit games since then with a pair of homers and three walks. And yet, his OPS+ is 77 (23% league average) and he still looks like he’s stuck in cement.

Barring injury, he’ll undoubtedly pass George Brett’s franchise record for career home runs this season. That may be his, and the team’s, only highlight of 2026.

Cole Ragans

I wanted to avoid players on the IL as much as possible, which is why I didn’t list Jonathan India, who’s out for the year, or Carlos Estevez, who barely pitched.

Ragans is different, though. He’s already pitched a fair amount this season and should have the chance to pitch plenty more.

In 2024, his first full season with the Royals, Ragans looked like a budding ace, a pitcher who has the stuff that could someday win him the Cy Young. Injuries derailed his 2025, but it’s been ineffectiveness that’s curtailed his 2026.

The culprits: walks, fly balls, and home runs. Working in reverse, Ragans is allowing home runs at the worst rate of his career, giving them up 6.6% of the time, which is almost double his previous worst mark. Batters are slugging .488 against him, also the worst of his career, and by far the worst during his time in Kansas City. It’s up over 100 points from last year!

Related, his fly ball percentage has jumped from 27% last year to 37.3% this year. Perhaps most concerning, though, is his walk rate: Ragans is walking 15.2% of the batters he faces as compared to 7.8% last year and 8.8% in 2024.

Hopefully he’s corrected himself during his time on the IL.

Alright, Readers, time for you to vote: what Royals player has been the biggest disappointment so far in 2026?

The New York Mets (22-28) return to the scene of the crime (the conclusion of their 2025 collapse) as they prepare to seek some revenge against the Miami Marlins (22-29). You will remember that the Amazins were shut out 4-0 in the final game of the 2025 season, which prevented them from earning a postseason spot as the Reds also lost their final game of the season. That game also helped Miami steal the season series from New York, taking seven of the 13 games that the two teams played.

The team’s series against the Nationals was a mixed bag, resulting in a 2-2 split in Washington DC. The team sandwiched the series win wins, 16-7 on Monday and 2-1 on Thursday, while enduring rough losses in the middle of 9-6 on Tuesday and 8-4 on Wednesday. The wins could not have been any different, as they used a 10-run twelfth inning to bludgeon the Nationals after escaping the first nine innings tied at 5-5. They originally trailed 3-1, then grabbed a 5-3 lead, then slowly let that slip away when the Nationals tied it in the eighth. It’s not often you see a position player pitching in extra innings. Then in the series finale, the team that has scored the most runs in the league and given up the most runs in the league only scored one and allowed two, which was enough for the Mets to earn the hard fought victory, courtesy of David Peterson and a great performance from the bullpen.

The two middle games were incredibly sloppy and disheartening, especially for a team that, coming into Tuesday night, had won six of its last seven contests. You could make a case for Tuesday being the team’s worst loss of 2026, as they blew past Washington in the early innings, building a 5-0 lead on the back of two two-run homers from a suddenly-rejuvenized Bo Bichette. With Nolan McLean on the mound, the Mets and the Flushing Faithful felt like this on in the bag, but it was not to be, as McLean was not as sharp as he normally is, and the defense let him down. This game featured an inside the park grand slam, which is another wacky rarity you don’t see much these days. Wednesday featured Zach Thornton’s major league debut, which did not go great, as the Nats’ bats jumped all over him early. Juan Soto tried to keep the Mets in this one, hitting two monstrous home runs along the way, but it was not enough for New York.

One positive to take away from the team’s recent series was the play of Bichette, who came to life after looking lifeless for much of the early portion of the season. Entering Monday with just two homers on the season, he hit three in the four games, and hit the decisive two-run single in the third inning of Thursday’s win. Overall, he went 7-for-18 in the series while driving in nine of the team’s 28 runs and scoring five of them. Juan Soto continued his torrid pace, recording 6 hits in 16 at-bats with three homers of his own. Dating back to May 14, he has five homers in his last eight games.

There is probably nothing more encouraging than the recent play of top prospect Carson Benge, who led the club with eight hits in the series. Over the month of May, he’s slashing .351/.400/.459 and is second to Soto with an .859 OPS. This is especially encouraging after he finished April with a .189/.247/.289 slash line and a team-worst .525 OPS (among qualified hitters). He’s shown a quick adjustment after a slow start, especially as he’s learned to hit pitchers that are higher in the zone and muscle them into the outfield for hits, something we’ve seen a lot more in recent days. Benge is second in the NL in batting average during the month of May.

The only person who has a higher batting average is Otto Lopez (.370), who suits up for the last place Marlins. The Marlins lost three of four to the Braves, falling 8-4, 9-1, and 9-3 after stunning Atlanta 12-0 in the opening game of the series. The three losses, paired with New York’s win yesterday, moved Miami into last place in the National League East.

As mentioned, Lopez leads the team in batting average in May, as well as wRC+ (144) and OPS (.870). On the season, the shortstop is slashing .342/.373/.487 with a 140 wRC+ and a team-best 2.2 fWAR. The only person with a higher wRC+ is Xavier Edwards at 149. Edwards enters play hitting .316/.395/.484 with a 2.0 fWAR in a team-high 51 games. Their catcher, Liam Hicks, leads the way with nine home runs and 42 runs batted in (exactly double the player who is second on their team, which is also Lopez). He owns a 126 wRC+ and a 0.9 fWAR in 48 games.

Friday, May 22: Tobias Myers vs. Eury Pérez, 7:10 PM EDT on WPIX

Myers (2026): 29.0 IP. 23 K, 6 BB, 5 HR, 3.41 ERA, 4.38 IP, 87 ERA-

Myers has been a weapon for the Mets out of the pen this year, acting as a swiss army knife who is versatile enough to take on many roles. He can give them length, or pitch one high leverage inning to preserve a lead, and now he will take on a new role as a starter to give Freddy Peralta, Christian Scott, and Nolan McLean an extra day of rest. With the Mets in the middle of a 16-games-in-16-days stretch, those pitchers have logged a lot of innings, so the rest will do them some good. This is technically Myers’ second start of the year, as he served as an opener and pitched two shutout innings against the Cubs back on April 19 in an eventual loss.

Pérez(2026): 52.1 IP, 58 K, 28 BB, 10 HR, 5.33 ERA, 5.21 FIP, 129 ERA-

Pérez has had a rough start to his 2026 campaign, with an ERA that’s over one run higher than his final line from 2025. Since earning his second win of the season back on April 19—an outing that saw him allow just one unearned run on three hits with seven strikeouts over six innings against the Brewers—the right-hander has lost each of his last five starts. In that stretch, he’s allowed 19 earned runs over 26 1/3 innings (6.49 ERA). In that stretch, he’s walked 16, struck out 31, and has posted a 5.77 FIP. He’s allowed at least four earned runs in three of those five starts.

Saturday, May 23: Freddy Peralta vs. Max Meyer, 4:10 PM EDT on SNY

Peralta (2026): 54.1 IP, 54 K, 25 BB, 6 HR, 3.31 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 84 ERA-

In his last start against the Yankees, Peralta allowed three earned runs on two hits over five-plus innings, with two of the three runs crossing the plate after he exited the game. The right-hander didn’t do himself any favors, as he walked a season-high six while striking out four. In fact, just 44 of the 96 pitches (46%) he ended up throwing were strikes, and it’s generally rare to see a starting pitcher throw fewer than 50% of their pitches for strikes. For the record, that’s the most batters he’s walked in a game since issuing six free passes as a member of the Brewers back on May 5, 2024.

Meyer (2026): 53.2 IP, 60 K, 19 BB, 4 HR, 2.85 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 69 ERA-

Meyer, the third overall pick int he 2022 MLB Draft, has broken out in this, his fourth big league season for the Marlins. The right-hander, who posted a -0.1 bWAR in two starts in 2022, a -0.2 bWAR in 11 starts in 2024(he missed all of 2023 with injuries) and a 0.0 bWAR in 12 starts last year, has posted a 1.7 bWAR in 10 starts for Miami this year. He’s currently ninth in the NL in HR/9 (0.67) and ninth in K% (26.7%) while also posting a very respectable 8.4% BB%. His last time out, he shut out the Braves over six innings, scattering three hits while striking out six and walking two.

Sunday, May 24: Christian Scott vs. TBD, 1:40 PM EDT on SNY

Scott (2026):19.2 IP, 25 K, 12 BB, 1 HR, 4.12 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 105 ERA-

The Mets have won four of Scott’s five outings so far this year, but he has yet to factor in the decision for any of them and enters this start still seeking his first career major league victory. The right-hander lasted just four innings his last time out while allowing three earned runs (a season high) on four hits. He walked three and struck out five, and his pitch count reached 81, which led to his exit. He threw 49 of those pitches (60%) for strikes.

TBD

The Marlins have not named a starter for Sunday’s game.

Good morning friends and happy Friday!

The Mariners kick off a weekend series in Kansas City this afternoon, with Logan Gilbert trying to right the ship against the 20-30 Royals.

As we prepare to enter the holiday weekend with lovely weather on the horizon for those of you in the Seattle area, what plans do you have? Are you going on a trip? Hanging out with friends and/or family locally? Or maybe hunkering down and soaking in Mariners baseball?

In Mariners news…

• Between injuries and underperformance, several Mariners players have been pushed beyond their comfort zones for the sake of the team, writes Daniel Kramer.
• The Lookout Landing staff got together for a round-table discussion about the Mariners’ weird six-man/piggyback rotation plan.
• Zach Mason likened players on the Mariners roster to things in his apartment as a way to express his feelings about the team in the first quarter of the season.

Around the league…

• In a major scoop, Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic reported that the Angels and Rays agreed to a trade during the 2023 deadline that would have sent Shohei Ohtani to Tampa — but Angels owner Arte Moreno shut it down (only for Ohtani to leave a few months later anyway). The Mariners should be thanking their lucky stars this deal never came to fruition. ($)
• The new Las Vegas stadium for the Athletics is reportedly on schedule for a 2028 opening.
• The Pirates are promoting outfield prospect Esmerlyn Valdez to make his major league debut.
• Don’t look now, but the Washington Nationals are off to their best start to the season since 2018.
• Nats infielder Paul DeJong will miss the rest of the season after undergoing hamstring surgery.
• A’s outfielder Denzel Clarke is out until the All-Star break with his own hamstring ailment.
• Has Sandy Alcantara successfully revitalized his career? Michael Baumann at Fangraphs gave his verdict.
• Fastballs are faster than ever before. Louisa Thomas at The New Yorker wonders what this extreme level of strain does to the human arm.
• Paul Sullivan at The Chicago Tribune pointed out that as a player, it’s impossible to win once you start talking back to chirping fans.
• Patrick Dubuque at Baseball Prospectus wrote about how difficult it is to determine a manager’s worth, and how strange it is that teams and fans act otherwise. ($)
• Did you know that you can bring outside food into the stadium? Tayla Minsberg at The New York Times spoke to fans about their favorite meals and snacks to bring to the park.

Anders’ pick…

• A group of students at the University of Washington have resurrected a portion of the Seattle cityscape that was lost when I-5 carved through it in the 1960s.
• Kyle Busch, one of the greatest drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series, died suddenly yesterday from an unexplained illness at the age of 41. Busch drove in two races this past weekend, winning on May 15 and noting in seeming premonition that “you never know when the last one is.”

One of the benefits of waiting until late May to look at statistics is that individual games have less of a difference on overall numbers. In April, it looked like the Astros hitting coaches were the toast of the town. The team was leading the American League in runs scoring. They were taking more pitches. They were taking more walks. It felt like there was a new message being delivered to hitters and they were listening. Of course, not we have gone most of the way through May (May 19th as of these numbers) and those gains may have slowed.

We have been looking at bases per out now for a couple of different articles. We looked at the catchers and we will look at the infield and outfield eventually, but this time we are looking at the offense as a whole. For comparisons sake, we will take a look at the 2025 numbers since those numbers were probably the numbers that got the past two hitting coaches sent out of town.

Now that the offense has seemingly come back to earth it bears asking whether there were any meaningful and lasting changes in the Astros offense. With one very notable exception, the players are basically the same. That exception is Yordan Alvarez as he spent most of 2025 on the shelf and wasn’t himself for most of the time when he was healthy. Is that enough to explain the difference?

Keep in mind that we will add BPO+ for reference sake. In case you missed our primer article, the major league BPO in 2025 was .670. The BPO so far this season is .663, Last year Daikan Park was perfectly neutral while this year it is playing one percent above average. Given that information let’s see if we have seen in real gains from 2025 to 2026.

That’s not an insignificant improvement. Of course, those gains might be short-lived as the Astros will live without Jose Altuve for a month and Carlos Correa for the remainder of the season. That doesn’t even mention any parts and pieces that will be bartered off before the August 3rd trade deadline. However, if we assume that forces will remain constant (never a good assumption) then we can note where the gains have occurred.

If we note where the gains have occurred then we can possibly isolate those gains down to either hitting talent or hitting approach. Keep in mind that the BPO formula is made up of four components. Total bases is obviously the biggest driver and one probably more dependent on hitting talent. The smaller components are walks, hit by pitches, and stolen bases. Walks are the main component tied to hitting approach.

Before we dive into the numbers, we have to acknowledge the impact of usage. This is why we will break down the infield and outfield in subsequent labs. Those numbers tell us who should play and how often they should play. Naturally, some of that is dependent on availability, but some of that is in the hands of the manager. A statistic like BPO can tell us more about damage than traditional numbers like batting average or more crude sabermetrics like OPS.

The Astros are 49 games into the season, so we will not look at the totals for these four components. Instead we will look at the per game averages to see where if any growth we see in the numbers. 30 BPO points is pretty significant, but as you will see the per game totals might be more subtle. It shows you how small tweaks can have a pretty significant impact on the numbers.

Seeing the numbers expressed this way also helps us understand the relative impact of each metric. The best team in baseball history in steals may have averaged 1.50 steals per game. So, an extra base per game is all you would get out of that exchange. However, as you can see, the 2026 is walking nearly 0.6 times more per game than the 2025 outfit. The impact of hit by pitches is also negligible.

So, the bulk of the difference will come from total bases and walks. The combined additions there equal almost one more base per game. That is the difference between a below average offense and an above average offense. Two total bases would probably take you from below average to elite. So, we aren’t really talking about huge differences this year.

The question then comes down to how we explain the improvement. It is an overall hitting approach improvement or are we talking isolated improvements in personnel. So far, Alvarez has not missed a game and has hit like expected, It turns out that 2025 might be the anomaly there. Otherwise, it looks like Christian Walker is the only significant hitter to show considerable improvement from 2025 to 2026. Can that be attributed to the hitting coaches? I suppose anything is possible.

it should be noted that Jake Meyers and Jeremy Pena have done very little and they were solid and very good respectively last season. There is still a ton of time for them to look more like they looked last year and that could further boost the numbers we are seeing. A more productive Yainer Diaz could also give a little boost to the lineup. Nothing is ever fixed in the middle of a season. So, given these numbers do you lean more on the hitting coaches being the reason for improvement or is it because of individual performances?

Mason Miller joined the San Diego Padres at the 2025 trade deadline, and his acquisition came at a steep price. The top prospect in the San Diego organization, Leodalis De Vries, had to be in the return for Miller and left-hander JP Sears. Padres president of baseball operations and general manager A.J. Preller paid the price for one of the top closers in MLB with four-plus years of control, but the move was questioned by many. To his credit, Preller banked on MLB experience, which Miller had, and took a risk that the loss of De Vries, as vaunted a prospect as he is, may not hurt too bad in the future. He also saw an opportunity for Miller to become an even better closer under the tutelage of pitching coach Ruben Niebla. So far, Miller has made the trade a success. Prior to a throwing error on a pickoff attempt in the second game against the Los Angeles Dodgers this week, Miller coming into the game was a winning recipe for the Padres. He did not enter in a save situation, but manager Craig Stammen believed that Miller could get through the top of the ninth with the game tied, which would give San Diego a chance to win it in the home half of the inning. That opportunity was lost and so was the game, but it was not because Miller could not throw strikes, he rushed a throw to first base and Ty France could not bring it in, which put the runner at third with one out. He later scored on a sacrifice fly and that was all the Dodgers needed. Miller is looking for an opportunity to erase that memory and he may get the chance over the next three days against the Athletics. It is not a sure thing we see Miller in one of these games, but for now he is the biggest piece of the trade between the two teams that has any chance at making an impact at the MLB level. That may change when De Vries finally makes his debut, but that will not be this week or any time soon.

Padres News:

• The Padres offense has struggled to find its stride this season, and that is in large part due to the stars like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill getting off to slow starts. That has not affected the defensive play of Tatis, who has returned to the infield dirt and has assumed the role of starting second baseman.

• It was a tough day for San Diego minor league affiliates with El Paso and Fort Wayne taking losses.

• Preller is not waiting for the trade deadline to start looking to improve his team. It may come as somewhat of a surprise that the Padres general manager is looking at improving the team’s biggest and most consistent strength – the bullpen.

Baseball News:

• The New York Yankees were held to just three hits by five Toronto Blue Jays pitchers in a 2-0 loss.

• Yankees send Spencer Jones back to minors.

• The Cleveland Guardians got a 3-1 win to complete a four-game sweep of the Detroit Tigers.

• Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, who had surgery two weeks ago, is throwing bullpens and his velocity is already near game speed.

• The Atlanta Braves beat the Miami Marlins, 9-3 but their superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. left the game early with a thumb injury.

• Corbin Carroll gets walk-off hit to lead the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Colorado Rockies, 2-1.

• The Athletics got a comeback win over the Los Angeles Angels and Jose Soriano.

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We're starting early with our favorite MLB picks for Friday, taking a side in the lone afternoon game on the MLB schedule.

Read on to see why our baseball experts like the Cubs to hold down the fort at Wrigley, while we also have plays in Dodgers/Brewers and Rockies/Diamondbacks — plus more picks coming this morning!

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: LAD/MIL o8.5	+100
Neil Parker: CHC ML	-138
Joe Osborne: ARI -1.5	+113

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Dodgers/Brewers Over 8.5

Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket

On a bad-weather slate loaded with rain concerns and heavy winds blowing in, let's target an Over 8.5 that appears as the best spot on the board. THE BAT is projecting 10.10 runs, with a fair price of -137. The pitching matchup looks appealing, if you’re only staring at the ERAs, but shaky BlastContact numbers suggest regression appears to be coming for both starters — Logan Henderson is stranding 98% of his runners over his last two starts, while Justin Wrobleski is carrying a .223 BABIP that feels due for some correction.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: BREW/SNLA

Neil Parker's expert pick: Cubs moneyline

Price: 58¢ (-138) at Polymarket

Jameson Taillon is holding opposing hitters to a well-below-average .300 wOBA, leading a tidy 3.28 ERA across 250 innings at Wrigley Field since signing with the Chicago Cubs in 2023. I give the North Siders a sizable edge on both sides of the dish, especially with Astros righty Spencer Arrighetti headed to the bump, who sports a career 5.15 ERA on the road.

• Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Apple TV

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Diamondbacks -1.5

Price: 47¢ (+113) at Polymarket

The Arizona Diamondbacks have dominated the Rockies at home, winning 10 of the last 11 meetings in the desert. Michael Soroka has been outstanding in Arizona, with a 1.59 ERA across five home starts, and allowing one earned run or fewer in four of those outings. That’s a tough matchup for a Colorado lineup sitting at 27th in OPS vs. RHP over the past two weeks. Meanwhile, Tomoyuki Sugano faces a D-backs offense that leads MLB in runs scored over the last week. Arizona also holds a major bullpen advantage, ranking sixth in bullpen ERA over the last two weeks, while Colorado is 23rd.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: ARID/COLR

More MLB best bets for today

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Mets and Marlins play a three-game series in Miami starting on Friday at 7:10 p.m. on PIX11.

5 things to watch

The starting rotation is in flux

With Clay Holmes out long-term, New York is patching things together in the rotation.

Against the Nationals in Washington, D.C., the four games were started by Christian Scott, Nolan McLean, Zach Thornton (in his MLB debut), and David Peterson (without an opener in front of him, as had become routine lately).

In Miami, Tobias Myers will start on Friday night, but he is not stretched out. That means he'll likely not go much beyond 35 or 40 pitches, and that the Mets will need plenty of length behind him. That length could come in the form of Jonah Tong, who has been held out in Triple-A just in case. Or, New York could possibly turn to Sean Manaea, who has been struggling.

The plan beyond Friday is unknown, though it will almost certainly include Freddy Peralta and one of Scott or McLean. 

Bo Bichette is heating up

Bichette went off during the series against the Nats, smacking three homers and driving in nine runs.

Over his last five games, Bichette is hitting .348/.375/.783.

Despite his prolonged slump to start the season, a rebound from Bichette wasn't hard to see coming. During his struggles, Bichette's BABIP was well below his career level despite similar metrics to his career norms.

In addition to Bichette, Carson Benge has been on fire -- and his tear dates back roughly a month.

Since April 23, Benge is slashing .347/.385/.469 (.854 OPS). He has hit safely in 10 of his last 11 games, with six multi-hit games during that span.

Juan Soto is also scorching, with a 1.357 OPS and five homers over his last eight games.

How will Nolan McLean bounce back?

McLean had a rough night against the Nats on Tuesday, allowing nine runs (six earned) on eight hits in 5.2 innings.

There were some caveats, though.

Four of the six earned runs against McLean came on an inside-the-park home run by James Wood that caromed off the glove of left fielder Nick Morabito. It was a tough play, but one that could've been made.

Beyond that, there was some concern after the game that McLean was tipping his pitches. 

If McLean doesn't pitch on Sunday in Miami, he'll likely get the ball at Citi Field on Monday against the Reds. 

The Marlins have been sinking

Miami had a nice start to the year, racing out to a 5-1 record. But it's been a slog since then.

The Marlins are 6-12 since May 3, and have lost seven of their last 10 games -- including a three-game sweep at the hands of the Braves earlier this week.

Their offense has been feast or famine, with 16 runs over their last seven losses and 31 runs in their last three wins.

Miami's starting pitching remains solid, though, and will feature Eury Perez and Max Meyer this weekend, with Sunday's starter TBD. 

Otto Lopez is having a huge season

If there's one standout for the Marlins on offense, it's Lopez. 

Lopez had a .686 OPS in parts of four seasons before 2026, but a switch has flipped for him.

The infielder is leading the majors with a .342 batting average and 68 hits, getting on base at a .373 clip, and slugging .487. 

Lopez has been an extra-base hit machine, with 13 doubles, four homers, and two triples, and has also swiped eight bags.

Predictions

Who will the MVP of the series be?

Juan Soto

Soto has been absolutely locked in since breaking out of a mini-slump about a week ago. 

Which Mets pitcher will have the best start?

Freddy Peralta

Peralta will be looking to bounce back after an uneven start last weekend against the Yankees.

Which Marlins player will be a thorn in the Mets' side?

Jakob Marsee

Things haven't come easily for Marsee in his second season, but he's one of the most talented bats in Miami's lineup.

You know your team’s season is going badly when … Oh, here’s a surefire one: in-organization fights start to erupt about why the team is playing badly.

One erupted this week, as beloved MASN broadcaster and former pitcher Ben McDonald unleashed an on-air rant about the O’s overreliance on analytics. Following the O’s 5-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, McDonald vented as follows:

We can talk about analytics and what could happen and what should happen if you hit the ball hard. But … I don’t care if you hit it hard and you hit it to somebody. You’re out. I don’t care how hard you throw ball four. I don’t care what your spin rate was on your breaking ball if you bounce it three feet in front of home plate. I don’t care. What I care about is, do you make plays? Do you make pitches? Do you get hits when it matters? And that’s what the Orioles are struggling to do right now. … So, all this nonsense is eyewash to me about this analytical stuff. You either do or you don’t. And right now, the Orioles don’t.

It would appear Big Ben has a point. The Orioles (21-29) entered today tied for the second-highest average exit velocity in MLB (90 mph), but their offense ranked just 17th, scoring 4.3 runs per game. Adding insult to injury, the first-place Rays (33-15), who swept Baltimore this week in three games, own the sport’s lowest average exit velo, sitting at 87.6 mph.

This is not a totally new story. Last season, the Orioles were a thoroughgoing offensive disappointment, expected to contend but ultimately finishing tied for 24th in MLB in batting average (.235), 21st in OPS (.699), and 24th in runs scored (677). Injuries played a real role: Jordan Westburg, Adley Rutschman, Colton Cowser, Ryan Mountcastle, Heston Kjerstad and Tyler O’Neill each missed fifty games or more, the latter earning himself the nickname “General Soreness.”

The organization didn’t just sit and take these body blows: instead, they took action (a pun!)—namely by firing the entire hitting staff. Coaches Sherman Johnson and Tommy Joseph were shown the door, and with new manager Craig Albernaz came Dustin Lind as lead hitting coach, who brought experience building the Giants’ and Phillies’ hitting programs.

Have these showy moves made much difference? The truth is: not really, at least not yet. Last season, the Birds hit .235 with a 42.2% hard-hit rate and a 24.2% strikeout rate. This season, they’re hitting .233 with a 42.5% hard-hit rate and a 24.7% strikeout rate. (Cue the Spiderman meme here.) If anything, they’re swinging for the fences a bit more and the contact is slightly worse.

Broken down by pitch type, the pattern becomes easy to see. Against fastballs, the Orioles own a .266 average, .379 wOBA, and a hard-hit rate of nearly 50% of balls in play. All are above average. They’re better, too, than in 2025, when the Birds hit heaters to the tune of a .244 average, .334 wOBA, and 49% hard-hit rate.

The trouble, like the old saying goes, is with the curve. As of early May, pointed out a Baltimore Sports and Life piece (appropriately titled “At some point, someone’s gotta hit a curveball”), the O’s were hitting just .182 with a .250 wOBA and a 35.4% strikeout rate (league average is 29%)—among the worst numbers in baseball. (Last season, those numbers were .206, .272 and 32.1%, so the team is now appreciably worse.) That shouldn’t be surprising given some garish individual performances you already know about: Colton Cowser has two hits off a breaking ball all year; Coby Mayo boasts a 41% strikeout rate against curveballs.

Is it the exit velocities? I’m not sure. What I can say is that exit velocity does not correlate with offensive excellence—otherwise, the Mets and the Red Sox would be contenders this year. For that matter, these five teams are the best at hitting curveballs: LAD, SEA, CLE, PHI, MIL. In exit velocity, Philadelphia ranks fourth, LAD fifth, Seattle eighth, Milwaukee 28th and Cleveland 29th. I’m no statistician, but I think it seems like average exit velocity and hitting curveballs should have nothing to do with each other. I don’t know.  But I do think the Orioles should start to give press conferences explaining why they’re so bad at hitting curveballs.

One more trend that sticks out: the terrible splits against lefties. Last year the team batting average splits against lefty/righty starters were .230/.236. This year, it’s .210/.240. That’s pretty bad. The main offenders: Leody Taveras (.156 BA against LHP), Colton Cowser (.200), Gunnar Henderson (.211) and Jeremiah Jackson (.231).

Which brings us back to Ben McDonald. He’s right that hard-hit rates and spin rates don’t matter if you’re not producing. He’s right, too, to question whether there’s too much of an emphasis on hitting the ball hard, which seemingly has little to do with offensive excellence in general.

But it seems like the curveball problems are a different thing, and so are the roster construction problems that explain why this team is so outmatched by lefties, and why the young draft classes aren’t popping like other youngsters like Bobby Witt Jr., Corbin Carroll, and Konnor Griffin.

Can all the Orioles’ struggles be laid at the feet of GM Mike Elias, wondered Steve Melewski the other day. No, he said, given the bad injury luck and underperformance. Can they be laid on the coaches? I’m inclined to think that yes, in part.

But regrettably, it feels like the blame has to go around: players, coaches, scouts, management. Losing in myriad ways, in such convincing fashion, is unfortunately a team job.

Good morning, LSB.

The Rangers were off yesterday.

Evan Grant’s off day column details the life of the meticulous Brandon Nimmo.

Grant also writes that the Rangers have a golden opportunity this weekend against the crappy Angels.

MLB Pipeline lists a pleasantly surprising prospect from every team, and I have indeed been pleasantly surprised with the Rangers pick.

And finally former Ranger Marcus Semien is the coverboy of Jim Bowden’s piece on struggling MLB veterans. Woof.

That’s all for this morning. The Rangers start up a series against the lowly Angels at the weirdly specific time of 8:38 tonight. Jacob deGrom pitches for Texas.

Happy Friday!

Columbus Clippers 2, Louisville Bats 4

Clippers fall to 25-23

Several top prospects had strong games, but it wasn’t enough. Cooper Ingle went 1-for-3 with two walks to reach base safely three times.

Kahlil Watson went 2-for-5 with a home run.

George Valera also reached base safely three times, going 2-for-3 with a double and a walk while Angel Genao went 1-for-3 with a double and a walk.

Starting pitcher Austin Peteson allowed four runs (three earned) on five hits with four strikeouts and two walks in 5.1 innings.

The bullpen was terrific. Daniel Espino struck out two in 0.2 scoreless innings. Will Dion pitched 2.0 scoreless frames and Jake Miller struck out two in a scoreless frame.

Akron RubberDucks 1, Harrisburg Senators 0

RubberDucks improve to 24-17

Thursday was a pitching duel between Khal Stephen and former Guardians prospect Alex Clemmey. Clemmey struck out 11 batters, but made one mistake, an RBI double to Alfonsin Rosario, who went 1-for-2 with two walks and three stolen bases. No one else reached base safely twice.

Stephen was excellent, tossing 5.0 scoreless innings with five hits allowed while striking out four and walking one.

Adam Tulloch added a scoreless inning while Carter Rustad pitched 2.0 scoreless frames out of relief and Magnus Ellerts finished off the shutout with a scoreless inning to earn his second save.

Lake County Captains 11, Lansing Lugnuts 1

Captains improve to 21-20

Lake County once again got excellent hitting and pitching in another blowout of Lansing. Something appears to be in the water east of the Captains lately.

Leading the way was Dean Curley, who went 2-for-3 with a grand slam and a walk.

Nolan Schubart also homered, going 1-for-3 with a walk.

Aaron Walton went 2-for-4 with a double while Jace LaViolette went 1-for-2 with a triple and a walk. Maick Collado went 2-for-4 with a home run.

Starting pitcher Franklin Gomez allowed one run on two hits with five strikeouts and two walks in 6.0 innings.

Cam Schuelke and Donovan Zsak combined for 3.0 scoreless innings of relief to close out the victory.

Hill City’s came was postponed due to rain.

ACL Guardians 3, ACL White Sox 2

ACL Guardians improve to 9-6

No one had an extra base hit, but Steven Cruz went 2-for-2 with a walk and a stolen base while scoring two of the three runs for the ACL Guardians on Thursday.

Starting pitcher Edelvis Perez allowed one run in 4.0 innings on three hits. He danced around five walks while striking out four.

Hickory starter Aidan Deakins struck out four in six innings, allowing one homer and two runs.

Paulino Santana homered. Yolfran Castillo had a hit and a stolen base. Marcos Torres was 2 for 4 with a double. Josh Springer had a hit and a walk.

Hickory box score

Hub City starter J’Briell Easley struck out seven and walked one in three shutout, no hit innings. Brock Porter struck out three and walked two in 4.1 IP, allowing one run. Joey Danielson struck out one and walked one in 1.1 scoreless innings.

Paxton Kling doubled. Gleider Figuereo had a pair of hits and a stolen base. Malcolm Moore and Yeison Morrobel each had a hit.

Hub City box score

Dalton Pence started for Frisco, allowing three runs in 5.1 IP, striking out five. Ryan Lobus struck out two and walked two in 1.1 IP, allowing one run. Bryan Magdaleno walked two and struck out one in 0.1 IP, allowing one run.

Dylan Dreiling doubled. Keith Jones II had a hit.

Frisco box score

Round Rock starter David Davalillo struggled with his command again, walking five and throwing a wild pitch in five innings, striking out four and allowing two runs. Luis Curvelo walked one, struck out one and gave up two runs in an inning. Alexis Diaz struck out one and walked one in a scoreless inning. Ryan Brasier struck out two in 1.1 scoreless innings. Emiliano Teodo struck out one in 1.2 IP without allowing a run.

Aaron Zavala doubled twice. Cam Cauley had a hit and two stolen bases.

Round Rock box score