Category: Baseball

For years under hitting coach Darnell Coles, it always felt like Nationals hitters were lacking a defined approach at the plate. Young hitters like James Wood, CJ Abrams, and Brady House demonstrated the raw power to be successful big league hitters, but would often flail at pitches outside the zone and miss the pitches they should’ve been doing damage on. They finished the 2025 season with a 22.6% strikeout rate and a 7.4% walk rate, placing them 28th out of 30 ball clubs in BB/K ratio at 0.33

A major point of emphasis for the Nats new hitting coach, Matt Borgschulte, was to instill a plan at the plate in his hitters. Players couldn’t just go up to the plate looking for a strike that they can hit hard somewhere, but instead needed to be key holing for their pitch when ahead in the count, looking to do extra-base-hit damage.

We’re only 10 games into the 2026 season, but the improvements are already beginning to show, as the Nationals are working more walks and striking out less than ever. The team walk rate has improved from 7.4% to 9.7%, and the strikeout rate has dipped from 22.6% to 20.9%, resulting in a team BB/K ratio of 0.46, good for 11th best in all of baseball. The improvement isn’t coming from just one or two Nats hitters, but the whole unit, as in 2025, only 2 Nats hitters had a BB/K ratio over 0.50, and in 2026, that number is 6.

The 2 Nationals who have seen their plate discipline improve the most are CJ Abrams and Brady House. Abrams has cut his strikeout rate by about 3% and raised his walk rate by about 6%, resulting in his BB/K jumping from a shaky 0.30 to a strong 0.71. His whiff and chase rate are actually slightly up from 2025, so we’ll see where his numbers stabilize after a larger sample size, but what matters currently is that the process looks much improved from before.

CJ Abrams just walked for the 4th time in four games. He's taking really good at-bats and showing more selectiveness than he's had in the past. pic.twitter.com/rahwt53JZM

— Grant Paulsen (@granthpaulsen) April 6, 2026

As for House, he is still striking out at a high clip, up from 28.5% in 2025 to 30% in 2026, but in turn, he has over tripled his walk rate from 2.9% to 10%. He’s improved both his whiff and chase rates from near the bottom of the league to just somewhat below average, and as a result, his BB/K ratio has gone from 0.10 in 2025, 2nd worst in all of baseball among hitters with at least 250 plate appearances, to 0.33, just under the league average.

Brady House walk rate by season:

2025: 2.9%
2026: 13.7%

He walked 8 times last year in 73 games a year ago. He's already got 4 walks midway through game 7 this year. pic.twitter.com/AxBy8ovEJS

— Grant Paulsen (@granthpaulsen) April 3, 2026

One of the keys to improving the discipline of Nats bats has been the addition of Trajekt pitching machines to their facilities, allowing hitters to simulate the arm angle and pitch shapes of the pitchers they’re set to face. Though the Nats’ bats haven’t been using them for long, the results are already beginning to show, even at the lower levels, as prospects such as Seaver King and Luke Dickerson are walking more than ever through their short stretch of games in the minor leagues. I’m excited to watch how these numbers change over the course of the season, and how hitters in the Nats organization adjust when pitchers change their game plans to attack their new patient approaches.

It’s still fairly early in 2026, but what a year it’s been for Carlos Beltran. 

After finding out in January that he was elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame, the good news kept coming, including the most recent announcement that the former center fielder would be inducted into the Mets Hall of Fame and have his No. 15 retired in September.

“2026 has been an incredible year for me, and also for my family. My daughter has been accepted to Columbia University here in New York, so I’m so excited for that, and the Hall of Fame, the Hall of Fame for the Mets and now the number retired, I’m thinking about maybe a tattoo with 26,” Beltran said with a laugh on Tuesday afternoon. “My first tattoo, I don’t have any tattoos. 

“But so happy, and honestly speaking I’m so grateful for the relationships in baseball and the ability to be around the team, the opportunity to be around the organization.”

Beltran, now a special assistant to David Stearns, played in parts of seven seasons for the Mets from 2005 to 2011, posting a slash line of .280/.369/.500 with 149 home runs, 559 RBI and 551 runs scored, ended up making five All-Star appearances as a Met, though he admitted his transition from playing in cities like Kansas City an Houston wasn’t the easiest, at least at first.

“There’s no doubt that New York is a different place to play baseball. The attention that you receive here as a baseball player, understanding the amount of people and media that you have to be available to after the games is different than in any city. I played for six different organizations in baseball and I never experienced in New York what I experienced in other organizations.

“I didn’t really understand the magnitude of playing in New York City. I knew that I wanted to be here, because I felt that at the point this organization was heading into, they were adding players that I thought were going to help this organization moving forward.”

Beltran admitted that he tried to play through injuries in 2005, his first year in New York, and he didn’t really find his rhythm until the 2006 season, when he helped lead the Mets to an appearance in the NLCS against St. Louis.

And while he said he felt “misunderstood” at times as a player, he now sees himself as a Met, and he’ll don the team’s cap when he gets enshrined in Cooperstown this summer.

“It really means a lot [to have my number retired], even though at times I feel like I was misunderstood,” Beltran said of his Mets tenure. “It’s sweet, it’s bitter at times, because I felt like there were moments where I was doing everything possible to try to connect with the fan base, but for some reason at times it was hard, because the message that was delivered sometimes out there about me didn’t allow me to connect with the fans. 

“But believe it or not, this was the team where feel like I grew the most, as a character, as an individual, as a player. …. But the fact that I see myself as a Met; my identity as a baseball player is here. And working with this organization the past three years has also been incredible.”

Beltran will enter the Mets Hall of Fame and have his No. 15 retired during a pregame ceremony on Saturday, Sept. 19 prior to the 4:10 p.m. game against the Philadelphia Phillies.

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The New York Yankees have the scariest lineup in baseball, and today they host the A's and righty Aaron Civale, whom they have history of dominating.

That AL clash headlines my three favorite MLB picks in the "no run first inning" and "yes run first inning" markets today.

Here are my best free YRFI and NRFI bets for Tuesday, April 7.

Best NRFI/YRFI bets today

Cubs at Rays: NRFI (-120)

Javier Assad makes his season debut for the Chicago Cubs and has pitched to a solid 3.43 ERA across 331 innings in his MLB career. He takes on the Tampa Bay Rays, who are 29th in the majors in barrel rate and 25th in hard-hit rate.

The Cubs have also struggled at the plate, ranking 25th in OPS (.628), with that number dropping to .557 over their last three games. 

The Rays are giving the pill to Drew Rasmussen, who has logged a sparkling 2.68 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP in 83 career starts with Tampa Bay. 

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marquee Sports Net | Rays.TV

Athletics at Yankees: YRFI (-115)

The New York Yankees have the best lineup in the AL and have scored in the first inning in 44.4% of their games.

They face Athletics starter Aaron Civale, who pitched to a 4.85 ERA in 102 innings last season. Civale has an ugly 6.35 ERA with a 1.65 WHIP in seven career starts against the Yankees. 

The A's also have a talented lineup anchored by Brent Rooker and Shea Langeliers. The A's are seventh in the majors in exit velocity, and the 20 mph wind blowing towards the outfield today will help both offenses.

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBC Sports CA | YES

Mariners at Rangers: YRFI (+118)

The Seattle Mariners are ice-cold at the plate. That said, this is virtually the same lineup that mashed on the road last year, and proven sluggers like Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor, and Julio Rodriguez will eventually break out. 

They face Texas Rangers righty Nathan Eovaldi, who has surrendered 16 hits and 11 runs through 8 2/3 frames.

Meanwhile, M's starter George Kirby struggles away from the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park. He had a 5.16 ERA with an OBA of .279 on the road last year, and the Rangers are second in the majors in hard-hit rate and exit velocity. 

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Mariners.TV | Rangers Sports Network

What is a NRFI bet?

NRFI (No Run First Inning) and YRFI (Yes Run First Inning) bets add a thrilling twist to the start of an MLB game. A NRFI bet is a wager that no runs will be scored in the first inning. You're betting that the starting pitchers for both teams will get through the first inning without allowing any runs, whether by striking out batters, inducing ground balls, or through solid defensive play.

A YRFI bet is the exact opposite. You're betting that at least one run will be scored in the first inning. In this case, you’re hoping for an early offensive burst such as a leadoff walk, a timely hit, or even a home run.

NRFI and YRFI bets add excitement to the early part of a game and offer immediate gratification for bettors looking for a quick resolution.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Before reading this update, you may want to look at this preseason article.  It looked at six outfielders who could most exceed expectations.  It concluded that Corbin Carroll was the most likely and that maybe two would exceed expectations.

Current status of the players. Jordan Lawlar broke his wrist.  Waldschmidt stayed in the minors.  So four players remain.

Corbin Carroll is the right fielder, and Alex Thomas is the center fielder.   Tim Tawa and Jorge Barrosa are playing the in the outfield to make up for Lawlar’s absence.  Let’s look at those four players to see whether they are exceeding preseason expectations.

Corbin Carroll.  My preseason expectation was high.  That expectation was the same OBP, SLG, and OAA as last season, and 34 homers (3 more than last season).  Also, there are concerns about his recovery from the broken hamate bone.

Batting. His OBP and SLG exceeded my high expectations.  He is on track for more homers than last season.  In addition, he hit two triples in the first ten games.  His impact went beyond expectations.  In four of the Diamondbacks first five wins, his RBIs made the game-winning difference.  The WPA totaled 1.02 for his top-ten plate appearances.  He is playing at an All-Star level.

Let’s look at those four games:

• 30 March, 4 RBIs, D-backs won 9-6.
• 31 March, 2 RBIs, D-backs won 7-5.
• 1 April, 1 RBI, D-backs won 1-0.
• 5 April, 1 RBI and two singles where he crossed the plate, Dbacks won 6-5.

Defense.  He is accumulating OAAs at a pace much higher than last season.  Perhaps he will be a candidate for a gold glove. 

Alek Thomas.  My preseason expectation was batting as good as the 2025 league average OBP and SLG, and 6 OAA (the average of his 2023 and 2024 seasons). 

Batting.  His OBP and SLG are less than past seasons, and lower than 2025 league averages.  On the other hand, his potential can be seen because his 4 RBIs are tied with Fernandez and Vargas for second highest on the Diamondbacks.  His top-four plate appearance have a WPA totaling 0.26.

Defense.  He is accumulating OAAs at a pace much higher than his excellent 2023 and 2024 seasons.  His defense in center field is making a huge positive contribution to the Diamondbacks.

Jorge Barrosa.  My preseason expectation was batting as good as the 2025 league average OBP and SLG, and 2 OAA

Batting.  His .462 SLG is exceeding preseason expectations.  His .231 OBP is close the expectations.  So far this season, his SLG and OBP are higher than Tim Tawa’s SLG and OBP.  His two doubles added a total of 0.14 WPA.  Although he received no added WPA for crossing the plate, in the tenth inning of the game on 5 April, as the ghost runner he scored the winning run.

Defense.  So far, Baseball Savant shows zero OAA.  However, that zero may only indicate that he has not yet accumulated more than 0.5 OAA.  It is too soon to draw conclusions about his defense.    

Tim Tawa.  If he becomes an everyday player, then he will exceed my preseason expectation of a bench player.  Before looking at his actual innings played per game, I decided that averaging 0.7 innings per Diamondbacks game would exceed expectations.  Tim Tawa started the season as a bench player, averaging 1.8 innings per game.  In games 6 through 10, he averaged 6.0 innings per games, very close to being an everyday player.  Currently, he is close to exceeding preseason expectations.    

The following table compare the four outfielders. Data from Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, and MLB com.

Summary.

Corbin Carroll is exceeding preseason expectations for batting and defense.  In four of the Diamondbacks first five wins, his RBIs made the game-winning difference.  Also, he may be a candidate for a Gold Glove. 

Jorge Barrosa’s SLG is exceeding preseason expectations.  It’s too soon to decide on his defense. 

Alek Thomas’ defense in center field is exceeding preseason expectations.  His defense in center field is making a huge positive contribution.    

Tim Tawa is close to achieving everyday player status, which would exceed preseason expectations.

Introducing a new weekly series where we review what we’ve seen, and heart from the latest week of minor league action. This past weekend we saw all the full season teams start their yearly grind so let’s take a glance at what happened.

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Who’s Hot

Ethan Bagwell – 6IP 0H 0R 1BB 6K, 16 whiffs

Ethan kicks off the series with an outstanding season debut for the Augusta GreenJackets against the Fredricksburg Nationals. Ethan utilized a four pitch mix: four seam, cutter, sweeper, changeup. His four seam fastball averaged around 94 MPH and maxed out at 96, a pitch he threw 21% of the time. His cutter had an average of 93 MPH, and he threw it 15% of the time. It was his sweeper that did a majority of the heavy lifting as he utilized it an astronomical 59% of the time. Finally, he showed four changeups. Ethan was in control from the very start of the game as he retired the first 12 batters that he saw. He commanded his pitches, pitched to weak contact, while also registering whiffs (16). It was a dominant start by every definition of the word.

JR Ritchie – 5IP 4H 0R 3BB 5K, 8 whiffs

While it was not on the same level as Ethan, JR Ritchie rebounded nicely after a bit of a disaster opening day (3.2IP 5H 2ER 3BB 3K). He was able to shutout the Round Rock Express across five innings of work. The command is still not quite there, as he still had an uncharacteristic three walks but did register 8 whiffs. JR utilized a five pitch mix of his four seam, two seam, curveball, changeup, and sweeper – getting whiffs on his changeup (1), four seam (1), curveball (3), cutter (1), two seam (2).

Didier Fuentes – 3.2IP 1H 0R 1BB 7K, 12 whiffs

Didier Fuentes continued his hot run of play with 3.2 fantastic innings against the Round Rock Express. He generated 12 whiffs, while primarily utilizing his four seam and slider. His four seam average 97 miles an hour, maxing out at 99 (multiple times), with -9.3” of horizontal break – which he used 57% of the time. His slider, averaged right around 86 miles an hour and moved a lot like the Lara slider/cutter, with just 4” of horizontal movement and 0.1” of vertical break. Fuentes also utilized his changeup (splitter), but he threw it just five times and it was not really a factor. That said, he got up to 72 pitches and looks to continue to build his arm strength until he is back in the starting rotation.

Owen Murphy – 5.2IP 3H 2ER 2BB 10K, 15 whiffs

It was a terrible start as Owen surrendered a homer and a triple to begin the game, but he settled in and turned in yet another very strong start while collecting 15 whiffs. Owen utilized a four pitch mix: four seam (91 MPH), slider (84 MPH), curveball (77 MPH), and a splitter (85 MPH). That said, he was still primarily 4s (54%), and slider (34%).

Alex Lodise – 13 AB, .385/.429/.462

Alex Lodise is off to a sizzling start as he’s hit the ball hard, registering a max EV of 109 on an opposite field hit. Keeping in mind that Lodise walked just fives times in 25 games last year, he’s picked up a walk and struck out just twice so far to start the season. The biggest thing to monitor is the lack of chasing especially at the top and bottom of the zones for Alex. While he has expanded a bit, he’s showing a much more promising approach at the plate and looks to be recognizing breaking pitches significantly better. While he still will go high in the zone, the fact that the chasing looks significantly better is very promising. Also of note, he hasn’t been chasing slider aways either – another very promising trend to monitor the rest of the year.

After his strong play the previous inning, Alex Lodise rips a opposite field double pic.twitter.com/xmyHEIFZh6

— Gaurav (@gvedak) April 5, 2026

John Gil – 10 AB, .300/.417/.600

The promising 19 year old continue his strong play, collecting a 1.017 OPS through the first three games of the season. John also had five successful stolen bases often resulting in non-competitive throws. John also showed off the improved power as well, hitting a three run homer with an exit velocity of 104 MPH.

Isaiah Drake – 12 AB, .333/.429/.833

Isaiah Drake is off to an absolutely scorching start with a 1.262 OPS across the seasons first three games. Isaiah has continued his patience at the plate, not expanding the zone – with just two strikeouts while also walking a pair of times. Like Gil, Drake is also perfect on the base pads with 3 stolen bases and 0 caught stealings. He’s also collected two homers already, and has put up extremely strong exit velocity numbers. On April 3rd alone, he had exit velocities of 100, 103, 105, 97, and 101 MPH, going 2-for-5 in that game. There are a lot of positive trends to take from Isaiah’s opening weekend and if he continues to hit at a rate remotely close to this, there will be a lot of chatter about him being a Top 100 prospect.

Nick Montgomery – 5 AB, .600/.778/1.200

Nick appeared in just a pair of games for the GreenJackets but boy did he show out – with a 1.978 OPS during the opening weekend series. Nick showed patience at the plate, not expanding the zone and walking four times in the two games while striking out once. His homer was a barreled, coming in with a 99 MPH EV. The selectively at the plate was a welcome sign for the power hitting catcher as he really struggled at the plate last season. While it’s early, it’s a very positive trend that will hopefully continue through the season.

Nick Montgomery protects the top of the zone and deliver this opposite field rbi single to tie the game for the GreenJackets pic.twitter.com/mNGuxGllA0

— Gaurav (@gvedak) April 5, 2026

Who Has Struggled Out the Gate

Nick Montgomery

As good as Nick was at the plate, it was a bit of a disaster behind the plate. In a single game he had a pair of throwing errors, as well as a passed ball that allowed a runner to score. High school catchers are notoriously some of the slowest developing players so it’s important to stay patient with Nick, however hopefully the play behind the plate improves to allow him to stay at the position where his power is on another level.

Cody Miller – 12 AB, .083/.083/.167

It’s been an odd start to the season for Cody who seems to be pressing quite a bit at the plate. Through the first three games of the season Cody has just one hit, and has struck out an uncharacteristic five times with zero walks. He’s expanded his zone as he’s pressed for more contact and the result has been poor quality at bats.

Jose Perdomo – 6 AB, .000/.000/.000

In a big year where health is of the highest interest to this writer, Jose Perdomo suffered an injury when he slipped running out of the box. He was down for a bit with trainers looking at his knee before he was able to get to his own feet and walk off the field. While there hasn’t been any concerning updates regarding the injury yet, it is yet another non-contact injury that has gotten in the way of his development. Hopefully Perdomo has avoided significant injury and will be back on the field sooner than later.

We’ve talked at length about how Cole Carrigg (No. 4 PuRP) is the definition of a “super-utilityman,” having played every position on the field at least once while also switch hitting. However, in spring training, he also worked on honing his off-the-field skills. 

Carrigg has always been an aggressive player, as evidenced by his stealing home in Saturday’s Isotopes game:

Last August, he notoriously stole second, third and home in the same inning.

“I’ve had a tendency to play, not necessarily over the top, but I just play 100% all the time,” he said during spring training. “That’s what I’ve been taught growing up by my dad and my brother. The only way I know how to play the game is a fully-competitive, 100% nature.”

However, that comes with some drawbacks.

In 2025, Carrigg posted a 33% chase rate – one of the highest in the minor leagues. That was the biggest on-field skill he worked to develop during spring training: trying to harness his “competitive nature” and learn a more patient approach.

“I’m just trying to do a lot a lot of the time, and sometimes that can get in the way,” he said. “But for me, it’s just knowing what I’m looking for and knowing what I can handle the best, and not trying to do too much at times.

“I’ve definitely taken some strides in that area,” he continued. “(I didn’t have) a lot of walks this spring, but I feel like I put myself into good counts. But putting the ball in play and playing hard is never a problem.”

That said, with the Rockies focus on versatility at all positions, why isn’t a guy like Carrigg being looked at more closely? It might be more related to off-the-field things.

“Probably handling failure like a professional,” Carrigg said of his next step, “getting rid of that immaturity and just letting them know that. If I do come up to the big leagues, I’m sure it’s not always going to be great – hopefully it’s awesome and I do well, but there’s going to be tough times. And being able to handle that like a pro and not bring the club down in any sense, and having any bad attitude or whatever and just being a good locker room guy… I felt like I did a really good job this spring. Granted, it went well so it’s a lot easier to be happy when things are going well. But just handling more of that type of thing like a professional.”

In addition to an extended look at big league spring training, Carrigg also got the opportunity to represent Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic.

“Getting a little week break to go play with the WBC was super cool,” he said. “I played short there and got to represent Israel, and I had four really good games out there. We went 2-2 – it wasn’t the result that we wanted, but it was still really fun to win a couple games, get them their berth for the next WBC. And then getting back into camp and hitting the ground running, and just playing some good ball and enjoying it while I could. I had a real blast.”

And the adjustments made things interesting down the stretch.

“It was a pretty unique experience going from camp to the WBC,” Carrigg said. “There’s a few big leaguers on our team – actually, quite a few, to be honest – so it kind of felt almost similar to spring training. We got to play against the Marlins at their spring training and we played against the Mets at their spring training, so for the most part, it kind of felt just like big league camp. But it was pretty cool – we stayed in a super awesome hotel with great food. It was pretty top notch. And then coming back, obviously, everything we have here is top notch, as well. And I got to see all the fellas again, so it was really good.”

Carrigg was not optioned to minor league camp until March 19 – the same day as Charlie Condon (No. 1 PuRP). Last year, he was reassigned on March 5. That goes to show how much closer Carrigg could be to the big leagues.

“I guess I did what I needed to do to stay longer,” he said. “Last year was a little shorter stint and I didn’t really play all that great. I guess you could say I forced the hand a little bit more this year, and I guess I just showed what I could bring to the table and bring to the team, and hopefully that’s some winning baseball.”

In his first week in Triple-A, Carrigg has gone 8-for-33 (.242) with one double, one triple, two RBI and two walks. He also has six strikeouts, but has stolen six bases in seven attempts. 

Carrigg might be a player that fits the new Rockies archetype, so hopefully he can gain a little more control in order to put himself in a place to be called up to the bigs.

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Weekly Pebble Report: March 30th-April 5th

Triple-A: Albuquerque Isotopes (3-6)

The Isotopes welcomed the Reno Aces (Arizona Diamondbacks) for their first homestand of the season. Albuquerque managed to snag two wins in the series, thanks largely in part to their pitching staff, with the starters in particular compiling a 1.99 ERA in 22 1/3 innings with six walks and 25 strikeouts. Pitchers as a unit have allowed three or fewer runs in four of the first nine games in the 2026 season.

Unfortunately, the offense has struggled quite a bit to put runs on the board. The Isotopes tied a team record by going six consecutive home games without a home run, dating back to last year’s season finale, before new minor league free agent addition, Andrew Knizner, connected for a home run on Sunday. During this series, the Isotopes posted a .209/.308/.280 slashline with just 10 extra-base hits (eight doubles, one triple, one homer).

It’s also worth noting that it was shared on Sunday that Charlie Condon (No. 1 PuRP) has been absent for the last few days after having a cyst removed, but it’s expected he’ll be able to get back to action in a few days.

⬆️ Stock Up: Top Marks for the Professor

Gabriel Hughes (No. 12 PuRP) came up big on the mound in both of his appearances during the series. In total, Hughes worked 10 1/3 innings with five hits and three earned runs allowed. During his start in the Home Opener last Tuesday, Hughes allowed just two runs on three hits while striking out eight batters against just two walks. During Sunday’s finale, Hughes entered the game after Parker Mushinski served as the “opener” and proceeded to allow one run on two hits with six strikeouts and just one walk. In that outing, he threw 56 of his 77 pitches for strikes.

Hughes fits the mold of a pitcher that the new front office is emphasizing. He offers a varied arsenal and has the mental aptitude to experiment and handle the mental approach to pitching at a higher elevation. He is, of course, a person who reads philosophy books for fun in his spare time. Hopes are high that Hughes will be able to make his big league debut at some point this season, and his showing an ability to handle the extreme conditions of the Pacific Coast League draws that day ever closer.

⬇️ Stock Down:Veen Struggling in the Duke City Scene

Officially activated from the injured list and optioned to Triple-A, Zac Veen (No. 9 PuRP) has struggled since joining the Isotopes on March 31. He is just 2-for-18 to begin the season with seven strikeouts and a pair of walks. He went 1-for-3 with an infield single and a walk in the series finale, marking the first time he reached safely multiple times in a game this season. He deserves some grace as he missed the last few weeks of spring training, but Veen has a lot to prove and will need to find his footing to put pressure on those above him on the depth chart.

Upcoming

The Isotopes kick off their next six-game series Tuesday by heading south to face off against the El Paso Chihuahuas (San Diego Padres).

Double-A: Hartford Yard Goats (2-1)

The Hartford Yard Goats started their tenth anniversary season as the Yard Goats with a 2-1 series win over the Chesapeake BaySox (Baltimore Orioles) at their home stadium of Dunkin’ Park. Although their season opener was marked by high strikeouts (14) and not taking advantage of scoring chances (2-for-12 with runners in scoring position), the Yard Goats rattled off back-to-back victories to take the series. In Game 2, the offense roared to life, beating down the BaySox 10-2 after plating five runs in the sixth inning.

⬆️ Stock Up:Shining, Wimmering, Splendid.

Anyone not named Braylen Wimmer might have been surprised to see the 25-year-old super utilityman on the field this spring. After suffering a seizure during the Arizona Fall League in November, Wimmer underwent a surgical procedure called an awake craniotomy to remove as much as possible of a large, cancerous brain tumor called an astrocytoma. No one would have blamed him for sitting even part of this season out.

Yet Wimmer suited up as the Opening Day center fielder for the Hartford Yard Goats and played in two of their first three games. Not only did he play, he excelled. Wimmer went 4-for-7 at the plate, drove in four runs, scored three times himself, went a perfect 2-for-2 stealing bases, and walked twice.

⬆️ Stock Up:Brooks Gets It Done

When the Rockies parted ways with Bradley Blalock this off-season, they obtained 24-year-old right-handed pitcher Jake Brooks from the Miami Marlins in the process. Brooks—a former 11th round pick from the 2023 draft—ended his last season in the Miami organization with Double-A Pensacola. This season he is starting the year in Double-A and had a strong debut with the Rockies organization. Brooks worked five scoreless frames against the BaySox while allowing just two hits and setting down nine batters via the punchout.

Upcoming

The Yard Goats are off to Reading for a six-game set against the Fightin’ Phils (Philadelphia Phillies) for their first road trip of the season.

High-A: Spokane Indians (2-1)

The Indians took two of three in their opening series against the Everett AquaSox (Seattle Mariners). On Friday, they won convincingly 4-1; on Saturday, they lost a close 3-2 game; and on Sunday, they outslugged the AquaSox 10-9.

Jackson Cox (No. 16 PuRP) was the only starter to pitch more than three innings, and he only allowed one run — a solo homer — on three hits with one walk and seven strikeouts in his start on Saturday. The Indians used three pitchers in that game, while they used four on Friday and six on Sunday. While the pitching staff has punched out a lot of batters (30), they’ve also walked quite a few. They’ve given up at least five walks in each of their games, including 10 on Sunday.

⬆️ Stock Up:Fight On! ✌🏻

Third baseman and 2025 draft pick Ethan Hedges (No. 29 PuRP) had a spectacular weekend at the plate. The Rockies’ third-round pick from USC went 6-for-11 (.545) with a double, two homers (both on Sunday), four RBI, one walk and three strikeouts.

Hedges was immediately sent to Spokane after he was drafted, and he hit just .195/.303/.234 in 20 games.

⬇️ Stock Down:Zero degrees Kelvin

Shortstop Kelvin Hidalgo struggled this week, going hitless (0-for-13) in three games with four strikeouts. He only reached (and scored) because he was hit by a pitch on Sunday. Of the prospects who have yet to record a hit, Hidalgo is the only one who started all three games.

Upcoming

The Indians head out for their first road trip, heading down to Hillsboro, OR to take on the Hops (Arizona Diamondbacks) for six games.

Low-A: Fresno Grizzlies (2-1)

The Low-A Fresno Grizzlies kicked off their 2026 season on the road against the Visalia Rawhide (Arizona Diamondbacks) looking to build on their strong 2025 campaign in which they reached the post-season only to be stymied by the eventual California League champion San Jose Giants.

The Grizzlies lost their season opener thanks to six earned runs given up by starter Marcos Herrera and a failure to capitalize on scoring chances by going 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position. The offense also struck out 15 times. However, they quickly found their footing to win the next two games and their first series of the year. Across those two games the Grizzlies scored a combined 12 runs and strong pitching performances from 2025 draft picks Austin Newton and JB Middleton kept the Rawhide bats at bay.

⬆️ Stock Up:Born to Be Wilder

19-year-old third baseman Wilder Dalis (no. 24 PuRP) picked up where he left off after a standout campaign in 2025 across the Arizona Complex League and Low-A Fresno. Dalis went 4-for-10 at the plate to kick off the Low-A season with a double and his first home run of the year. He also drew three walks to just two strikeouts and had two RBIs.

⬇️ Stock Down:Bat Still on Holliday

Top Rockies prospect and 2025 first round pick Ethan Holliday was assigned back to Low-A Fresno to start the season and reportedly is bigger than stronger than ever. Unfortunately, that didn’t necessarily translate to results at the plate. The 19-year-old recorded just one hit in the Grizzlies’ three-game series against Visalia. While he drew two walks, he struck out a whopping seven times in 12 at-bats, including a rough four strikeout game on Saturday.

Upcoming

The Grizzlies head home to beautiful Chukchansi Park for their home opener and a six-game set against the Stockton Ports (Sacramento Athletics)

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The Tampa Bay Rays hope to clinch the series with the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday as they host their second game back at the newly-reopened Tropicana Field.

Monday saw the Rays pick up an emotional 6-4 win, and the MLB odds indicate they’re expected to replicate that with Drew Rasmussen on the bump.

My Cubs vs. Rays predictions have MLB picks for the side and total for Tuesday, April 7.

Who will win Cubs vs Rays today: Rays moneyline (-128)

Drew Rasmussen’s increased cutter usage is a key reason for his strong start. He’s picked up a whiff rate of 29.4% with the pitch, utilizing it 7% more than last season.

Tuesday he faces a Chicago Cubs lineup whose .340 xwOBAcon and .213 xBA are fourth-worst in the bigs.

Yandy Diaz is setting the table for the Tampa Bay Rays with a .395 xwOBA and a .489 OBP. As a team, they rank fifth in xBA and wOBA, and sixth in slugging.

They’ll score runs against Javier Assad, making his first start after posting a 4.86 xERA and 4.69 xFIP last season.

Cubs vs Rays Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-115)

Tampa Bay has consistently been going over the total this season, even when the opponent hasn’t been contributing.

Monday’s 6-4 win marked the eighth Over in 10 games to start the season and I expect that trend to continue. Assad will likely get punished by the top of the order, especially if Diaz gets on-base in front of Jonathan Aranda.

The Cubs bullpen has a 4.63 xFIP and 5.41 xERA. Tampa Bay has seen its pen far even worse, with a 4.94 xFIP and 6.08 xERA. Both rank in the bottom third, and late runs will push the total north of the number.

Cubs vs Rays odds

• Moneyline: Chicago +117 | Tampa Bay -122
• Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-186) | Tampa Bay -1.5 (+170)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-108) | Under 7.5 (+104)

Cubs vs Rays trend

The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 26 away games (+13.15 Units / 42% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Rays.

How to watch Cubs vs Rays and game info

Cubs vs Rays latest injuries

Cubs vs Rays weather

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Mets manager Carlos Mendoza spoke with reporters on Tuesday at Citi Field.

Here are the main topics he discussed...

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The plan for Juan Soto

Soto was placed on the IL on Monday, retroactive to Saturday, due to the minor calf strain he suffered this past Friday against the Giants in San Francisco.

Mendoza explained that the decision was basically made on Sunday, and that Soto was fine with it.

While Soto could've conceivably played in the near-term and avoided an IL stint, Mendoza said the team "just wanted to play it safe."

"I've been saying that these are tricky, the calf area," Mendoza explained. "There's no reason for us to continue to go day by day and put him through a series of exercises and make a decision on whether he's gonna be available or not. 

"We just decided, you know what, take your time before we start putting you through a series of things that he has to check all the boxes, right? Give him time, and we'll get him back when we get him back." 

Tuesday is the fourth day since Soto's injury occurred, and he is eligible to return from the IL in one week -- on Tuesday, April 14. 

When the Mets announced the IL move, they noted that a typical return to play for the type of injury Soto has is two-to-three weeks.

"For now, it's just treatment," Mendoza said about Soto's rehab. "I'm pretty sure he's gonna be doing some exercises indoors -- not much baseball activity until the soreness or the tightness goes away. That's the plan for the coming days."

Ronny Mauricio's role

Mauricio was called up to replace Soto on the 26-man roster, and Mendoza laid out why, noting that they wanted another infielder/versatile player up given the minor ailments to Jorge Polanco (Achilles) and Brett Baty (thumb).

Mendoza spoke to Mauricio about his role, explaining to the 25-year-old that regular playing time might be sparse while he's up.

"Even though his name is not gonna be in the starting lineup, he's got a pretty important role," Mendoza said. "Coming off the bench, lefty bat, the versatility, defensively, pinch-running if we need to. But also understanding that the playing time part is gonna be limited. But we're not talking about having a case here like last year, where he kind of sat on the bench for a long time."

Mauricio slashed .226/.293/.369 with six homers and six doubles in 184 plate appearances over 61 big league games in 2025.

He has tantalizing potential, but has yet to put it all together at the major league level. 

Mauricio also missed the entire 2024 season and the start of 2025 after needing ACL surgery for an injury he sustained while playing winter ball -- something that slowed his development. 

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Dinger Tuesday means backing the hottest bats, even as cooler weather sweeps across the league. Attention turns to indoor ballparks and select West Coast matchups where pricing and opportunity still offer solid value in the home run market and MLB player props.

Junior Caminero made his presence felt at the Trop with a four-bagger yesterday, and I’m counting on him to repeat the performance today.

On top of that, I’m doubling down on Atlanta Braves power with Drake Baldwin and Ozzie Albies, rounding out a four-player home run round-robin in my top home run props and MLB picks for Tuesday, April 7.

Best MLB home run props today

Junior Caminero (+400)

With the temps dropping to the 40s, finding dingers indoors is the key to a profitable home run card on Tuesday. The Trop is back, and Junior Caminero went deep there yesterday afternoon, which was his second straight game with a four-bagger. He has hits in four straight, and nobody in baseball has a harder hit ball than him, with his league-leading exit velocity of 116.9 mph. 

He faces Javier Assad, who was recalled from Triple-A to fill in for Matthew Boyd and Cade Horton. In his last minor league outing, Assad allowed two home runs on 11 hits and profiles as a contact-heavy arm.

This shapes up as one of the better hitting matchups on the slate, making Caminero a strong value play at this price in a controlled environment.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Rays.TV, Marquee Sports Network

Drake Baldwin (+560)

Drake Baldwin has already failed me this year, but, of course, he got hot after I bet on him with back-to-back games going deep.

He is currently tied for the league lead with five homers. A price north of +500 in Anaheim, with decent hitting conditions, is putting him back in my trust tree. He is a Top-10 hitter in baseball right now who isn't striking out. 

There are three other Atlanta Braves who have taken Yusei Kikuchi deep over their careers in Ronald Acuna (+360), Matt Olson (+390), and Ozzie Albies (+520), so there is plenty of info for Baldwin, who handles lefties just as well as righties.

This might be a great spot for a two-man Atlanta round-robin homer card with the two shortest numbers making better than 20/1 odds. That's six combinations at doubles. At 0.15 units per bet, that would be a decent winner at less than a unit risk. 

• Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Network West, BravesVision

Ozzie Albies (+520)

Let’s keep attacking Kikuchi in a solid hitting environment with Albies at +520.

He’s already part of a four-player round robin I have, but his solo HR prop at +480 or better still carries +EV based on projections. Albies is expected to hit in the three-hole against a lefty, a split where he’s historically been stronger than vs. right-handers.

Kikuchi’s profile is vulnerable to hard-hit fly balls, and Albies has already had success in the matchup, going 3-for-6 with a home run.

There’s also upside beyond the starter, as the Angels' bullpen has outperformed its underlying numbers, carrying a 4.51 xFIP that ranks near the bottom of the league despite a strong ERA. This sets up as a spot where the Braves could generate multiple home runs.

• Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Network West, BravesVision

Today’s HR parlay

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Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Orioles fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

Last year’s Orioles team never had a .500 or better record after being 3-3 through six games. For a little while in April, they might win a game to at least get within one below, or a couple in a row to get within two below, but they could never get back to an even record and before long they were not even close to it.

The Orioles have played poorly enough over the first couple of weeks of the season to leave people wondering if they’re going to run back that disappointment, only with some different faces involved. Hopefully, they will not do this. Yet we all hoped they would not do it last year either and what did that get us? Nothing except for a July dismantling.

In this week’s survey, I am setting the bar low. It is depressing how low I have set the bar. The question is: Will the Orioles get back to .500 before April is over?

If you don’t see the survey, you may need to open this article in Incognito Mode.

It’s possible that this question will be answered before the results of this survey are even posted. If the Orioles can sweep the White Sox, they’ll be .500 on Friday when I typically get the survey results. They should have a decent chance to do it, since Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish are starting the next two games and the White Sox offense is pretty bad. Of course, nothing is guaranteed. The Orioles offense is also pretty bad and the defense and bullpen are both highly questionable.

What do you think? Vote above and let us know your thoughts in the comments below.

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The New York Yankees will look to continue to build off their 7-2 start when they host the Athletics for an early week series starting tonight.

We like their chances in the opening with one of the most promising young arms in the majors on the mound. 

My A's vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks break down the matchup and why we're backing a low-scoring New York win on Tuesday, April 7.

Who will win A's vs Yankees today: Yankees moneyline (-230)

There’s been a bit of a rush to fade Cam Schlittler in the market early this season after his postseason accomplishments last year.

In some ways I understand it, but he’s simply responded by being untouchable, allowing zero runs over two starts and, perhaps more importantly, posting an expected ERA of just 1.09 (top 2% of the league). I’m backing him here. 

This is the ideal opponent for his elite chase rate, strikeout build. The Athletics own the highest whiff rate in baseball at 32% and the highest swing rate at 51%. 

They pair this with the lowest chase contact rate in the league. Schlittler should curve through this lineup, making over strikeouts, outs, and under hits all of interest too. 

A's vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-118)

This play is mostly a double down of Schlittler having a big-time performance. I made this number 8.1 so I see a decent amount of value getting around the half run. 

We’ve talked about Schlittler enough but I’m a fan of A’s hurler Aaron Civale, too. His groundball rate won’t stay at over 55% all season but for the moment, I’ll respect it and say that’s the profile you want the most when facing New York.

Pairing that with just a 6% barrel rate tells you he limits damage in the air even if he cannot miss bats. The New York Yankees will score but Civale's contact profile keeps balls on the ground.

A's vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Athletics +194 | New York Yankees -203
• Run line: Athletics +1.5 (-106) | New York Yankees -1.5 (+100)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

A's vs Yankees trend

The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 45 games (+17.25 Units / 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for A's vs. Yankees.

How to watch A's vs Yankees and game info

A's vs Yankees latest injuries

A's vs Yankees weather

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While it was the pitching staff that carried the team through the first week of games, the offense began to break out scoring 23 runs in their three-game set against the Marlins. The unit is still far from firing on all cylinders, Aaron Judge yet to truly ignite his season. Instead, they’ve had to rely on the contributions of a different pair of sluggers, Giancarlo Stanton picking up this season where he left off last year while Ben Rice looks poised to break out as the league’s next offensive juggernaut.

We join Rice leading off the bottom of the seventh, the cleanup hitter having already endured an 0-for-3 night with three strikeouts. However, the Yankees are winning, and Rice remains one swing away from transforming a stinker of a night into a productive outing.

The Marlins have brought in a fresh reliever for the seventh, the hard-throwing Michael Petersen hoping for a clean inning. He throws one of the best four-seamers in the game when you combine its velocity and movement, so it’s no surprise to see him start Rice with the ol’ No. 1.

Petersen commands this 97 mph four-seamer almost perfectly to the corner down and away and earns the called strike. Statcast reveals that this pitch is out of the zone, but the Yankees have already exhausted both their ABS challenges, and in truth it’s a good take from Rice given how little you can expect to do with a pitch located that well.

Now that Petersen has shown Rice the high velo cheese, he attempts to get him chasing out in front of a changeup below the zone.

You just aren’t going to get Rice to chase a pitch like this. The changeup is a ball out of Petersen’s hand and never looks like breaking toward the zone, making for an automatic take from one of the most disciplined hitters in the league over the last 12 months.

Perhaps Petersen saw that Rice didn’t even flinch at the last pitch, because he ditches the changeup for the four-seamer for the rest of the AB.

This is a helluva four-seamer at 98 mph with an eye-popping 22 inches of induced vertical break (18 inches is considered elite). Petersen throws one of the ten best four-seamers in the league when measuring vertical movement, this barely dropping from its plane during its path to home plate. It’s such a difficult pitch to track for the hitter — with practically any other four-seamer you expect it to drop into the zone but Petersen’s almost rises as it approaches home. Rice can absolutely be forgiven for chasing and whiffing under this almost gravity-defying pitch.

Just like that, Rice finds himself in a 1-2 hole and on the precipice of donning the dreaded golden sombrero. If Petersen can repeat the pitch he just threw, Rice is almost surely toast.

Wait a second. Rice isn’t supposed to be able to pull this pitch into the second deck just foul after getting beaten badly by an identical four-seamer one pitch prior. This is some kind of adjustment from Rice to be able to immediately doctor his swing plane to match the pitch that just beat him.

After watching Rice clobber that elevated four-seamer into the second deck, you might expect Petersen to go with something off-speed to take advantage of Rice’s sped up bat. Instead he tries to sneak another four-seamer by Rice in the same spot.

Bad idea. In addition to this pitch actually being in the zone, Rice has fully adjusted his swing to do damage, and boy does he, lasering a 111 mph frozen rope into the seats in right for his second home run of the season. That’s two adjustments in the course of three pitches — the mark of a hitter who is not only locked in but also fully understands every facet of his own swing.

Here’s the full AB:

Rice alongside Cam Schlittler has been one of the true developmental wins for the Yankees since Aaron Judge ascended to superstardom. His emergence as a middle-of-the-order bat comes at a crucial time for the Bombers as they suffer through fielding the worst six-through-nine hitters in all of MLB

It's still very early in the season, but the Yankees entered today's game with the worst 6-7-8-9 hitters in baseball.

Those spots had a combined 22 wRC+ before today's game. They are currently 0-for-6 with 3 Ks today.

— Chris Kirschner (@ChrisKirschner) April 5, 2026

You always knew Ryan McMahon and José Caballero were apt to struggle offensively, but the lack of production from Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Austin Wells has seriously shortened the lineup in the early going. The onus is therefore on the first five hitters to shoulder the majority of the offensive burden. If Rice can continue his own ascent toward becoming one of the most dangerous first basemen in the league, the Yankees should still continue to score runs irrespective of the impotence of the bottom of their order.

We all know about Rice’s batted ball supremacy — over a quarter of his batted balls have been barreled while almost four out of every five is hard-hit. We also know how he has made himself into a strike zone savant, placing in the 90th percentile or better in walk and chase rates. However, this encounter showcases another pair of skills he has developed in his time in the majors. His ability to make adjustments pitch-to-pitch and AB-to-AB is already elite. But perhaps even more impressive, his mentality to immediately turn the page after experiencing disappointment — as evidenced by his home run and two-run double after striking out in his first three at-bats of this game — is what I believe will take Rice into the stratosphere of MLB hitters.

Here’s the Royals’ lineup:

Right back to it. pic.twitter.com/KWtDSfHweS

— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) April 7, 2026

Here’s the Guardians’ lineup:

It's cold.#GuardsBallpic.twitter.com/IF5cWdhp0G

— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) April 7, 2026

Let’s go, Guardians!

Spring training is a time for hope. It can come in two forms – fans hope their team will put it all together to make a run at a happier ending to their season than the one before while teams hope their players make it through the gamut unscathed. Injuries are a concern and everyone just wants to make it out alive.

Spring training is also a time for contract extensions. Teams were likely working behind the scenes during the winter to talk to player agents in the hopes that they can get a certain player to extend their stay on the roster. The focus for many of those talks are on players that are either really close to free agency or really far away. These past few weeks around the game has seen teams trying to make sure their young talent that is further away from reaching free agency would agree to a deal that would make them instantly wealthy for an extended period of time while also securing their future at cheap reasonable rates while assuming a decent amount of risk that the deal will bust out. There has been a deal in Baltimore where the Orioles made sure Shane Baz sticks around while the Brewers and Mariners made sure their shortstop phenoms would spend their best years in their cities before even making a major league debut. Konnor Griffin jumped on the extension train hours before his major league debut, so it seems as though there is a pattern. The suspicion of teams getting ahead of things prior changes to the CBA, but for the most part, it’s just good business on the part of the team.

It makes one wonder if the Phillies would consider doing the same.

Right now, there are three contenders for getting this kind of extension: Justin Crawford, Andrew Painter and Aidan Miller. All three would fall into that category of “signing him now to avoid future expense”, but each would be their own special case. Were the team to sign Miller, it would look as though they were just joining in the young shortstop extension fun. With Crawford and Painter, it would be similar in that they were young players the team wished to make sure didn’t get too expensive, but at different positions, it would have a different shade of extension.

Aidan Miller

It seems that the new cool thing to do is signing your young shortstop that has yet to debut. As mentioned before, Pratt, Emerson and Griffin now have their grandchildren’s children set up for life with generational wealth while also preserving the ability to make even more money later on due to their current youth and end date of the contract. Looking down prospect lists and noticing that others might still do the same (Kevin McGonigle, J.J. Wetherholt, Jesus Made to name a few), one might wonder about if the Phillies were interested in doing the same. Where that might end up would depend on a few things.

The first thing to worry about is Miller’s health. They can continue to talk with optimism all they want with regards to his back injury, but those are the ones that scare teams. A lot. Miller would have to prove that he is capable of repeating the kind of season he had in 2025 without the fear that his back was going to give out before the team committed large swaths of money to his future.

The second thing is exactly that: do it again. He had a marvelous season in 2025 that catapulted him to the top of the team’s prospect rankings, yet he also was struggling to begin the season. Maybe seeing him repeat what he did last year, to a certain extent, would help soothe some of the fears that he just rode a hot streak, though scouting reports and under the hood numbers suggest he is more than capable of repeating his 2025 year.

Justin Crawford

Of the three players here, Crawford seems least likely to get an extension offer as it really just doesn’t feel like it would be necessary based on his offensive profile.

Why?

Baseball has been trending to power tools being more highly valued over hit tools for quite a while. The ideal is to find a player that can have both and can be developed and refined at the big league level, but if druthers were to be had, the power would be what teams wanted. We’ve already seen flashes of having both skills from McGonigle, who looks to have a preternatural feel for doing both and doing both quite well. With Crawford, his success at the minor league level is something that cannot be denied. He’s produced at every level he has played at, though maybe missing the power that is desired by major league teams. It’s also simply not his game to have over the fence power, but more of the gap to gap variety. Nothing wrong with that as plenty of players have that same kind of game and have found success. The drumbeats of “Crawford needs to hit the ball in the air more” have gotten louder with each rung climbed on the minor league ladder, yet here he is in the major leagues, performing decently in the early going. No one in the organization was going to expect much this year from him, preferring to lower expectations in his first go ‘round.

Yet for an extension, there has to be some kind of “above and beyond” to his game that we haven’t really seen flashes of just yet. It’s still very, very early in the season and he’s doing pretty much exactly what the team was expecting him to do, yet that isn’t the kind of offensive profile that gets one contract extensions. For those that lean on the negative side, there’s might even be the idea that if he were flashing more in his offensive game (more home run power, more balls in the air), there might even be an idea of “show it more than once” before they even thought of talking about an extension.

So while he’s doing well in his first tour around the majors, there still just isn’t enough there yet that shouts “CONTRACT EXTENSION!” for Crawford.

Andrew Painter

Pitching is expensive. We know this.

Starting pitching is really expensive. We know this as well. So why would an extension for Andrew Painter make sense over the other two? The reason is simple: ceiling and money.

Right now, the ceiling that Painter possesses is greater than anyone in the team’s minor league development system. If he reaches that ceiling, the team is looking at having another top tier starter, most days a #2, some days scraping ace-level performances. There might be a few down ballot Cy Young votes along the way, an All-Star appearance or two, all the makings of a very good pitcher. That kind of performance gets paid, handsomely.

Giving Painter an extension now might mean that the team is avoiding those awkward arbitration hearings where players hear how bad they are, contrary to their performance on the field. It would also mean locking in free agent years, however many would be agreed on, at a below market value rate, allowing the team to use possible savings to shore up different parts of the roster. As mentioned before, it makes sense from a roster standpoint so long as the money saved on one player is in turn spent on another (not necessarily a guarantee).

However…

Painter is a pitcher. Pitchers break, as Painter already has. He has made exactly one career start in the major leagues as of this writing (two by the time you read this). That is something teams rarely do for pitchers that have as little experience as Painter has. It’s not to say that teams haven’t given extensions to pitchers with little time. A list of current pitchers are:

• Brayan Bello: 6 years, $55 million – signed after he had 1+ seasons of experience
• Spencer Strider: 6 years, $75 million – highest AAV at the time for pitchers of 1+ seasons of experience
• Hunter Greene: 6 years, $53 million – signed after one year of experience

The list continues, but the theme is the same. The pitchers all had at least a year of experience pitching in the majors before the team agreed to a deal with them.

Painter, while possessing a ceiling that is on par with at least three of these names, hasn’t shown anything outside of at least one decent start that would make the Phillies want to commit long term just yet. Those talks could happen once the season is over provided Painter shows that he is worthy of the deal. There just isn’t any reason for it happen right now.

The team has received an injection of youth from Crawford and Painter so far this year and may get another if Miller proves his talent and health are worthy of a promotion. For now, though, it just doesn’t make any sense to give them guaranteed money without better (and more of a track record of) results on the field.