Elephant Rumblings: Yankees Arrive, De Vries Injury, Plus MLB Salary Cap?

MESA, ARIZONA - MARCH 22, 2026: Leo De Vries #14 of the Athletics throws to first base during the third inning of a spring training Spring Breakout game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Hohokam Stadium on March 22, 2026 in Mesa, Arizona. (Photo by Chris Bernacchi/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images

We made it through another week A’s fans! Ready for a huge weekend of A’s baseball?

The Yankees are in town and the series kicks off tonight in Sacramento. The Athletics just got swept for just the second time this season and have fallen out of first place so stacking up a couple wins against a strong Yankee team would be ideal. Definitely can’t afford another sweep and finish the homestand 0-6. The Yankees are a tough opponent though and they just welcomed back their ace in Gerritt Cole (but lost Max Fried). They have the second-best record in the American League and have won four straight entering tonight. Lucky for the A’s they’ll miss Cole in this series as well as emerging right-hander Cam Schlittler. The A’s will instead be tasked with getting to veteran Carlos Rodon tonight before facing 26-year-old starters Ryan Weathers and Will Warren on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.

Elsewhere, down in the minors the Athletics’ #1 prospect is dealing with a minor injury. Shortstop Leo De Vries has missed a few games in recent days with an unknown problem with a finger (unknown which one):

The 20-year-old shortstop is actually going to get away from the team and travel to Arizona where he will be looked at by an orthopedic hand specialist. That’s a concerning development for the young shortstop, who is off to a solid start in Midland. He’s hitting .281/.360/.401 with five home runs and 16 stolen bases. He had a strong April before going through a tougher May, which will now be cut short. Everyone will be holding their breath that De Vries hasn’t done something major to a finger and hope he can return to game action sooner rather than later. He’s still incredibly young for his level but a promotion to Triple-A has been on the radar all year. That eventual promotion will now certainly be pushed back a bit and could come a lot later than A’s fans hoped, depending on what the doctor says about that finger.

Wrapping your Friday news dump, MLB’s owners have made their first proposal to the MLBPA regarding the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement.

That has always been a huge sticking point for the players as they believe the owners want to keep salaries from continuing to explode. A lot of the league will point to the two-time champion Los Angeles Dodgers as the reason for a need for a salary cap and the logic works, to a degree. The players’ association would almost certainly fight tooth and nail over this, which was a huge cause of the 1994 players’ strike. They won out in that battle but the owners seem more determined than ever to get a salary cap like the NFL and NBA currently have.

If that truly is a sticking point in negotiations, then there is a very real possibility we have a lockout coming up soon. One of the proposed things the owners would be agreeing to for the salary cap would be a salary floor, forcing every team in the league to spend at least X amount on the major league team. That was something A’s have had been hoping for when the team was still in Oakland. How would the recent playoff teams the Athletics had could have done more damage in the postseason had they been supplemented with free agent additions and a sizable payroll increase?

It’s too late for Oakland now but if this is the future parameters of a deal then owner John Fisher will have to finally spend more on the team. He’s begun doing more of that since moving the team and they rank 21st in the league with a $94 million payroll but he’d have to spend close to $77 million more on the team. Add in the great young talent the A’s have accumulated and the potential salary floor would certainly help the Green & Gold go up against high-priced teams like the Yankees and Dodgers. Something to think about and monitor as these negotiations continue over the next few months.

Have a great weekend everyone.

A’s Coverage:

MLB News and Interest:

Best of X:

Sacramento making a play to somehow keep the A’s/lure an expansion to Northern California:

Improvement!

How accurate would you call this assessment?

Ugh. Hard to bench a guy with that huge contract but how long can the A’s keep marching him out there? Are the offseason surgeries affecting him more than he’s letting on?

From Wednesday:

How should the Red Sox handle Brayan Bello?

TORONTO, CANADA - APRIL 29: Brayan Bello #66 of the Boston Red Sox is taken out of the game in a break in play against the Toronto Blue Jays in their MLB game at Rogers Centre on April 29, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Cole Burston/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Brayan Bello Experience is turning into a complicated one in Boston on numerous levels. In the short-term, it’s unclear whether he should start or enter the game behind an “Opener.” In the season-long term, it’s unclear if he should be in the starting rotation or the bullpen. In the long, long term, it’s unclear if his extension through 2029 will be a bargain or a burden. 

The word “Opener” gives me the shakes and it’s just one example in a long list of things that the Rays did very well, out of necessity, and the rest of the league copied poorly. It can’t be denied that Bello’s three games as the “bulk” reliever have been astronomically better than his seven starts. 

That being said, Jovani Moran’s splits are an inverse relationship to Bello’s. In a fairly hot take, I don’t think Jovani Moran should start any more games this season. 

Whether it’s Bello or an Opener, the starting pitcher has stunk on ice in each of the ten Bello games this season. This isn’t working, whatever it is.

As Garrett Crochet faces live hitters for the second time this week, a rehab stint seems imminent. It’s unfathomable for any of Crochet, Sonny Gray, Ranger Suarez, Payton Tolle, or Connelly Early to be removed from this rotation (at least not until Sonny Gray is traded at the deadline). It’s also hard envisioning Brayan Bello transitioning into the Greg Weissert role and faring much better. Bello has two minor league options left, but what would that do for his confidence?

When Bello debuted in 2022, out of necessity due to nine starting pitchers being on the IL, he was due to become a free agent after the 2027 season. The Red Sox bought out his arbitration years, and signed him to a six-year, $55M extension running from 2024 through 2029. Bello had been solid in 2023, with a 4.24 ERA in 157 innings, with a 13.0 K-BB% when the team offered the extension. Since that date, Bello’s ERA has stayed at an identical 4.24 ERA, but his K-BB% is down to 10.3%. His velocity has decreased, the barrels allowed are way up, and he disappointed in his playoff start last October. 

What would you do with Brayan Bello … Should he be following an Opener, and if so, whom? When Crochet returns, what should Bello’s role be? Do you anticipate him being in this Red Sox rotation for three more years after this one?

Enjoy the weekend, and be good to each other in the comments. 

MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Friday, May 29

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The home run grind rolls into a great Friday slate, and the +EV dingers and MLB player props are plentiful today. 

It's never a bad idea to look for home runs in Cincinnati, but the pitching matchup is making it even better today, and getting the No. 2 HR/FB hitter in baseball at a price north of +500 is also making the card.

These are my favorite home run props for Friday, May 29.

  • UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HROdds
Braves Mike Yastrzemski+577
Phillies Bryce Harper +527
Yankees Aaron Judge+246
💲Today's HR parlay+13630

Home run pick: Mike Yastrzemski (+577)

Great American Ball Park is always a strong place to target home runs, and Mike Yastrzemski is one of the better +EV dinger looks on the board today with a fair price around +480, per the projections at Covers powered by THE BAT.

He’s in strong form right now with the team’s third-best slugging percentage and wOBA over the last 30 days, while also getting the ball in the air consistently with a 52% fly-ball rate that ranks second on the team this month.

He’ll face Chris Paddack, who has been crushed at GABP this year with a 12.67 ERA and a 2.2 HR/9. His 35% groundball rate does him no favors in this park, and his Bottom-10 xFIP among MLB starters over the last 30 days suggests the struggles are very real.

Pitcher/hitter history is usually secondary, but it’s still worth noting that Yastrzemski has had success against Paddack with three home runs across 25 plate appearances.

  • Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Reds.TV, BravesVision

Home run pick: Bryce Harper (+527)

Dodger Stadium grades out as a Top-5 park for home runs today, per Ballpark Pal, with 9-mph winds blowing out to right-center field.

That’s good news for a Bryce Harper bomb priced north of +500, with a buy point at +480 or better. Harper has already launched seven home runs this month and owns an absurd 31.8% HR/FB rate over the last 30 days, which ranks second in baseball behind only teammate Kyle Schwarber at 37.5%.

Harper’s fly-ball rate hasn’t been elite lately, but if he gets one in the air against Justin Wrobleski, it could quickly turn into four bases. Wrobleski is a fly-ball pitcher with reverse splits who has been vulnerable to left-handed hitters. There's often value in targeting reverse-split arms because the market tends to overprice the lefty vs. lefty matchup.

  • Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Apple TV

Home run pick: Aaron Judge (+246)

When you’re cold, it’s never a bad idea to take the most probable home run on the slate today at a projection of 0.39 HR from New York’s Aaron Judge. With an implied 0.33 HR from the +246 price, it grades out as a +EV spot for a Judge homer.

This is also the second-best home run park on the slate, per Ballpark Pal, and the matchup is favorable for the right-handed slugger, who ranks as THE BAT’s No. 1 hitter in baseball. Luis Severino has struggled significantly at Sutter Health Park, where his ERA is roughly two runs higher than his season average and was three runs higher there last year.

His 2.2 HR/9 at home is among the worst marks in baseball, and he has already allowed multiple home runs in three of his four home starts this season. Judge also has history in the matchup, going 4-for-8 with a home run and four RBI across eight at-bats against Severino.

  • Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: YES, NBCS-California
Josh Inglis' 2026 Transparency Record
  • HR picks: 13-100, -32.94 units

Today’s HR parlay

Braves Mike YastrzemskiBet Now
+13630
Phillies Bryce Harper 
Yankees Aaron Judge

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Minor League Recap: Best Wishes for Robert Arias

MiLB Recap: Cooper Ingle homers again, top prospect Robert Arias seriously injured 

Columbus Clippers 10, Toledo Mud Hens 3 

Clippers improve to 28-25

The Columbus Clippers offense blasted off for 10 runs on 17 hits as every player in the lineup had at least one hit with five players have multi-hit games and all but two reaching base safely at least twice.

Leading the charge was Nolan Jones, who went 4-for-5 with a double. Jones has quietly raised his Triple-A batting average to .269 and his OPS is up to .802.

Angel Genao had a three-hit game, going 3-for-4 with a double and a walk. 

Cooper Ingle had the big hit of the day, going 2-for-6 with a three-run home run.

C.J. Kayfus went 2-for-5 with a double and three runs scored, Milan Tolentino went 2-for-5 with two stolen bases, Juan Brito went 1-for-2 with two walks and a steal and Bo Naylor returned to Columbus by going 1-for-4 with a walk.

Starting pitcher Austin Peterson was decent, allowing three runs on five hits with seven strikeouts and three walks in 4.0 innings. Knuckleballer Trenton Denholm was sensational in long relief, tossing 5.0 shutout one-hit frames with four strikeouts and three walks to earn the win.

Akron RubberDucks 4, Richmond Flying Squirrels 5

RubberDucks fall to 26-22

Akron had 12 hits but couldn’t string enough of them together on Thursday. Wuilfredo Antunez led the way, going 3-for-4.

Jaison Chourio doubled and walked while Jose Devers went 2-for-3 with a walk. Juan Benjamin went 2-for-3 with a sacrifice.

Starting pitcher Josh Hartle allowed two runs (one earned) on six hits in 5.0 innings. He didn’t strike out any batters and walked one.

Carter Rustad took the loss, allowing three runs on five hits in his 2.0 innings.

Lake County Captains 4, Beloit Sky Carp 2

Captains improve to 25-22

Lake County took advantage of eight walks to score four runs despite getting just four hits. Jace LaViolette reached base safely twice with a walk, a single and a stolen base.

Nolan Schubart walked twice and both Maick Collado and Esteban Gonzalez went 1-for-3 with a walk. Gonzalez also stole a base.

Starting pitcher Jackson Humphries was superb, tossing 4.0 shutout innings of two-hit ball with seven strikeouts and no walks.

Michael Kennedy also had one of his better outings of the season, finishing off the game with 5.0 innings of long relief, allowing two runs on four hits with four strikeouts and no walks.

Hill City Howlers 2, Fayetteville Woodpeckers 4

Howlers fall to 24-24

Top Guardians outfield prospect Robert Arias was in the middle of a breakout season, slashing .294/.400/.865 through 44 games in his age-19 campaign at Single-A Hill City.

Unfortunately, after a leadoff single on Thursday, Arias was injured sliding into second base when I think he caught a spike and his foot rolled underneath his body and he was removed from the game in an air cast. I wish him the best and hope for a swift recovery.

Jose Pirela went 2-for-4 and Anthony Martinez doubled, but otherwise, the offense was pretty non-existent.

Starting pitcher Joey Oakie absolutely dominated opposing hitters, allowing one run on two hits with eight strikeouts and two walks in 4.2 innings. 

Ryan Prager was sensational out of the bullpen, striking out all six of his outs in 2.0 scoreless innings, but Miguel Flores allowed two runs in his 3.0 innings of long relief to take the loss.

Guardians News and Notes: CBA and CDL

CLEVELAND, OHIO - MAY 26: Chase DeLauter #24 of the Cleveland Guardians reacts after lining out to center to end the fifth inning against the Washington Nationals at Progressive Field on May 26, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) | Getty Images

MLB’s owners and players exchanged CBA proposals yesterday. Jeff Passan has your breakdown here for ESPN.

For one, I dread the discussion and division ahead. Of course, a hard cap benefits owners who want to control the spending they have to commit to in order to get top-end talent. Also, players do not particularly care about competitive balance issues and refuse to admit that the current financial system is not particularly fair to mid-level talent or to fans. I kinda hate everyone involved already so expect analysis from other writers here, not me.

Tim Stebbins has an article on Travis Bazzana and Chase DeLauter. Would be nice to see CDL get a little burst from the off-day and get back on track.

Steven Kwan has been placed on the family leave/bereavement list. Our sympathies go out to him and hopes that things will be ok, whatever is going on. Neither Stuart Fairchild nor George Valera were in the Columbus lineup yesterday. One would assume it will be Valera because he is on the 40-man and left-handed.

Around MLB:

The White Sox beat the Twins and the Tigers lost to the Angels.

In The Lab: BPO and the Outfield Logjam

We took a little mini break from bases per out, but we were always going to come back. This is really about two suppositions. First, the Astros current pitching staff is MLB average. We saw that in the last lab that we ran on Wednesday. Yes, Josh Hader is due back next week. Hunter Brown is due back in a couple of weeks. Still, this is not the kind of pitching staff the team had in 2018, 2019, or 2022. That brings us to the second supposition. The Astros offense is also currently average.

The good news is that the team finds themselves three games out of first place as of this writing. There have been a few instances in history where teams have won their division with fewer than 85 wins. When I reviewed the math problem with everyone it was based on the assumption that 85 wins would be needed to get into the playoffs. It is fair at this point to question whether that actually is true. If it takes only 82 or 83 wins then the math changes and things become much more possible.

Yordan Alvarez and Christian Walker have been spectacular this season. Yet, when you look at the rest of the current unit, no other regular has an OPS higher than Christian Vazquez at .725 and he will likely see that go down if expected numbers are correct. Players like Jeremy Pena are expected to improve and certainly that should be the case, but this offense is a little top heavy and that is clear in the outfield. If we consider Yordan Alvarez as a designated hitter only then there are seven guys that have gotten considerable time that likely will factor into the current or future plans of the organization.

As a reminder, bases per out are calculated by adding total bases, walks, stolen bases, and hit by pitches and dividing it by the total number of outs a player accrues. The current MLB average is .663. It goes without saying, but you want the players with the most outs to be the players that accrue the most damage per out. However, I am sure you will notice something immediately when looking at the outfielders. They will be listed in order of outs.

TBBB/HBPSBOutsBPO
Cam Smith60257148.622
Brice Matthews46102113.513
Jake Meyers205149.531
Joey Loperfido217144.659
Zach Cole182043.465
Zach Dezenzo164033.606
Taylor Trammel144121.905

You’ve undoubtedly noticed that Trammel is the only outfielder over the league average and he has the least number of outs. Obviously, that is due to his untimely injury in Cleveland and he has been back in the lineup since returning from the injured list. Cole was mercifully sent down and Loperfido is on a rehab assignment, so he should be back next week as well. So, who amongst these guys will he replace?

Admittedly, holding a spot is not only a function of offensive production. The Astros have to consider things like positional flexibility, options, and defensive output. The same is true for when deciding who gets to start and where. Based on those points alone, Dezenzo would seem to be the most likely player out because of a lack of positional flexibility and defensive ability.

Certainly, this current road trip has changed a lot of minds over what is possible down the stretch. I am certainly in that group, but it is more about what other teams are not doing than what the Astros have actually done. Given that, the job for Joe Espada is to manage with razor thin margins and get as much blood out of that rock as possible. Many of you are screaming about the fielding side and it is definitely a factor. So, below we see the defensive innings along with the defensive runs saved (DRS), outs above average (OAA), and fielding run value (FRV). All three are popular fielding metrics that usually say the same thing, but occasionally disagree because they all have their own methods and assumptions.

InningsDRSOAAFRV
Cam Smith459.1666
Brice Matthews263.0133
Jake Meyers145.0200
Zach Cole127.0101
Joey Loperfido125.1000
Zach Dezenzo96.01-2-1
Taylor Trammel84.11-10

To give everyone some context, Smith is likely to be a finalist again for the Gold Glove in right field if he continues on this pace. Unlike last season, he may actually take it home this time. That obviously complicates a decision as to whether he should get regular starts in right field. When you add in the fact that he is probably the second best outfielder offensively behind Loperfido (Trammel likely comes back to Earth) then it seems pretty clear that he has right field held down.

This is why competing matters. If you are in the business of winning games then you put the best three guys out there. If you are in the business of development then you consider the best interests of the player. Smith likely should have been in the minors last season and maybe this season as well. It still might have been best for his overall development. Yet, if you are in the business of winning games then you need him out there.

Loperfido and Trammel seem like a nice platoon in left of sorts. In this case, it isn’t so much which side of the plate they hit from (left) as riding the hot hand in the moment. Trammel is not likely to be an average MLB performer over a full season. He certainly looks the part now, so you might as well ride that bull until it bucks you. Over a longer timeline, Loperfido has a slightly higher upside.

That leaves centerfield. Matthews has made that more compelling through his defense. Is Jake Meyers likely to live at a .531 BPO? He has a career .613 BPO. It seems reasonable to expect him to get back to the neighborhood of a .600 BPO at the very least. That certainly begs the question: is Brice Matthews likely to elevate himself to that? Obviously, what 2027 or 2028 might look like is anyone’s best guess, but the simple answer to that question in 2026 is likely no.

When Jose Altuve comes back it becomes a question of whether you want to option Matthews, Braden Shewmake, or Nick Allen. We haven’t looked at their numbers yet, but suffice it to say that both are performing better than Matthews. Remember, this is about squeezing as much offense as possible out of players that are not quite league average. If you have enough luck and win enough close games then you can find yourself right back in the hunt. These are razor thin margins we are talking about here, so the Astros must exploit every positive difference they can.

Good Morning San Diego: Disappointing homestand puts Padres struggles on full display

SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - MAY 26: Jackson Merrill #3 of the San Diego Padres reacts after striking out during the ninth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Petco Park on May 26, 2026 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images) | Getty Images

When it was happening, the San Diego Padres and their fans knew the walk-off wins and seventh inning surges would not propel them through the season — but it was fun. The most recent homestand saw the Padres finish with a 3-6 record over nine games at Petco Park and was hardly the result anyone expected but was not totally shocking either.

There were concerns about the San Diego rotation coming into the season, but no one predicted the offense would be this bad. For the majority of the season, the big three of Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill have struggled to provide any significant contributions at the plate. Machado has a slash line of .169/.265/.339 with nine home runs, 27 RBI and 27 runs scored. Tatis has a slash line of .260/.339/.300 with no home runs, 16 RBI and 19 runs scored, and Merrill has a slash line of .200/.271/.318 with four home runs, 19 RBI and 24 runs scored.

The trio of San Diego’s stars combined are eight home runs shy of the MLB leader, Kyle Schwarber. In fact, with all three combined, they would not rank in the top 10 in long balls this season. It was said about the spending under former owner Peter Seidler and it was said this season about the late-inning heroics to win games, this is not sustainable. Somehow the Padres remain seven games above .500, but San Diego is currently on a four-game skid and that seven can get to zero in a hurry unless something changes.

Padres News:

Baeball News:

Thoughts on a 5-1 Rangers loss

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - MAY 28: Nicky Lopez #33 of the Texas Rangers reacts after striking out against the Houston Astros during the seventh inning at Globe Life Field on May 28, 2026 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Astros 5, Rangers 1

  • Guys, I’m getting worried about the Rangers’ chances of winning the Silver Boot this year.
  • Also, it appears that the addition of Nicky Lopez to the lineup hasn’t catalyzed the offense.
  • The last seven days have been demoralizing, as a Rangers fan. An opportunity to make a push and take control of the American League West has turned instead into a downward spiral.
  • This game, for example?
  • Very unpleasant.
  • Nathan Eovaldi giving up three runs in the first inning, part of the team’s ongoing inability to keep teams off the board in the first inning.
  • Rangers’ opponents have now scored 45 runs in the first inning this season. 31 runs have been allowed in the fifth inning. They haven’t allowed more than 23 runs in any other inning.
  • The entire rotation has been stricken with Dane Dunning disease.
  • Maybe Texas just needs to start using an opener in every game.
  • It wouldn’t solve the problem with the offense, however.
  • The Rangers recorded a whopping four hits in the game. Two by Josh Jung and two by Ezequiel Duran.
  • Incidentally, as part of the “the Shed has been de-nerfed” monitoring, Jung’s homer went 424 feet, as did Jeremy Pena’s. Those both are among the 10 balls in play that have traveled the farthest at the Shed this season. Eight of the top 10 on the list have come in the past three games.
  • The evidence continues to mount.
  • As do the losses.
  • Nathan Eovaldi hit 95.7 mph with his fastball, averaging 94.1 mph. Cal Quantrill’s sinker topped out at 94.4 mph.
  • Jake Burger had a 106.1 mph ground out. Josh Jung’s homer was 103.6 mph off the bat. Ezequiel Duran had a 103.6 mph single.
  • The Royals now come to town. Maybe the Rangers can avoid being swept by Kansas City.

Friday morning Rangers things

May 28, 2026; Arlington, Texas, USA; Houston Astros right fielder Cam Smith (11) reacts at second base after hitting an RBI double during the third inning against the Texas Rangers during the third inning at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images | Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

Good morning, LSB.

The Rangers lost to the Astros last night, 5-1.

Shawn McFarland’s game story discusses the hole that Texas’ starting pitching has been digging in the early going of games.

Kennedi Landry evaluates what’s gone wrong with the Rangers’ season one-third of the way into it.

Skip Schumaker missed the game while attending his son’s high school graduation.

Josh Smith is back with the team after a bout viral meningitis.

Cody Freeman has been activated from the IL and optioned to Round Rock.

Evan Grant answered the questions of exasperated Rangers fans in a live Q&A on Youtube.

And finally there’s a strong chance we look back at tonight’s Nolan Ryan bloody jersey giveaway as the greatest thing the 2026 Texas Rangers offered us.

That’s all for this morning. The Rangers start up a series with the Royals tonight at 7:05 with MacKenzie Gore on the mound for Texas.

Happy Friday!

Best NRFI Picks Today: No Run First Inning Predictions for MLB May 29

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With an intriguing matchup on the mound, I'm expecting a low-scoring first inning between the New York Mets and Miami Marlins in their series opener.

That game headlines my favorite MLB picks today for the "no run first inning" and "yes run first inning" markets.

Here are my best NRFI predictions and YRFI picks for Friday, May 29.

Best NRFI/YRFI predictions today

PickOdds
Marlins/Mets - NRFI-145
Cubs/Cardinals - NRFI-120
Royals/Rangers - NRFI-130

Marlins at Mets: NRFI (-145)

A pair of studs take the hill tonight between the Miami Marlins and New York Mets.

Max Meyer gets the ball for the visitors, and he's collected a 2.52 ERA this season. The right-hander has a 9-2 NRFI/YRFI record as well, and he's held the Mets to a .094 average across 32 at-bats.

They failed to score off him in the first last Sunday. 

Freddy Peralta counters for New York, and he hasn't allowed a run in the first inning in 10 straight appearances, and he's up against a Marlins lineup that doesn't often score in the first.

They're also batting just .239 in the opening frame, and he held them scoreless in the first last week. 

I'd play this up to -160. 

  • Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Marlins.TV, WPIX-11

Cubs at Cardinals: NRFI (-120)

Shota Imanaga takes the hill for the Chicago Cubs tonight, and while he's struggled at times this season, the left-hander rarely gets in trouble in the first. 

He owns a 8-3 NRFI/YRFI record, and he hasn't given up a run in the first in five straight. The St. Louis Cardinals haven't scored in the opening frame in nine games and counting.

The hosts will hand Kyle Leahy the ball, and he's also been lights out in the first, with a 9-1 NRFI/YRFI record.

The Cubbies are hitting only .222 in the first inning, and they've scored just 10 times in the opening frame in 2026. 

This is a play I'd take up to -150. 

  • Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: MARQ, Cardinals.TV

Royals at Rangers: NRFI (-130)

The Kansas City Royals and Texas Rangers are both struggling to score runs right now, and the pitching matchup here will make it difficult to get things going early on.

Stephen Kolek has a 2.77 ERA, and he hasn't allowed a run in the first once this year across four starts. 

MacKenzie Gore has an ERA over 4.00, but he's usually came out unscathed in the opening frame, posting a 8-3 NRFI/YRFI record in '26.

The Royals' offense hasn't came across the dish in the first in four straight, while Texas has been held scoreless in the first in four of their previous six games. 

I'll confidently ride this pick up to -140. 

  • Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Royals.TV, KDAF-CW33
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
  • NRFI/YRFI picks: 14-24, -0.35 units

What is a NRFI prediction?

NRFI (No Run First Inning) and YRFI (Yes Run First Inning) predictions add a thrilling twist to the start of an MLB game. A NRFI pick is a prediction that no runs will be scored in the first inning. You're predicting that the starting pitchers for both teams will get through the first inning without allowing any runs, whether by striking out batters, inducing ground balls, or through solid defensive play.

A YRFI pick is the exact opposite. You're predicting that at least one run will be scored in the first inning. In this case, you’re hoping for an early offensive burst such as a leadoff walk, a timely hit, or even a home run.

NRFI and YRFI picks add excitement to the early part of a game and offer immediate gratification for those looking for a quick resolution.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Should San Francisco Giants move on from Rafael Devers amid struggles?

The start of the MLB season hasn't been kind to the San Francisco Giants and their first baseman, Rafael Devers.

The Giants have a 22-34 record through one-third of the season. Devers, their 2025 splash acquisition from the Boston Red Sox, has had a rather forgetful start to the 2026 season. He's on pace for one of his worst seasons in MLB, since his professional debut in 2017.

Devers is batting .242 with just seven homers in 215 at-bats through 56 games. This season he has struck out 69 times, which is ranked within the top 15 in baseball. His grand slam Sunday in the Giants' 8-5 win against the Chicago White Sox brought a sigh of relief after a sluggish start.

He followed it with a 1-for-3 performance, adding two RBIs in the first game of a three-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks, a 6-2 loss on Monday, May 25. He remained in rhythm the following games batting 1-for-4 and adding an RBI despite the Giants losing, 7-5.

He cooled off in the final game of the series against Arizona. Devers was 0-of-4 as San Francisco was swept in the series after a 3-2 loss on May 27.

One of the more pressing issues for the Giants is what's going on with Devers and what to do with him at this point in his tenure. As talented as Devers is, the Giants' record indicates that something has got to change, and you start with Devers. The Giants need to determine whether they will continue to believe in Devers and allow him to shake the funk, or if they will bench him, or let him go altogether.

What should San Francisco Giants do about Rafael Devers' slump?

The Giants and Devers have got to figure this thing out if there's any hope of salvaging an otherwise lost season. It's not the end of the world, yet. San Francisco is 22-34, not the best record by far, almost the worst ... but not quite. All in all, improvement on all fronts needs to be made. The Giants are in a position where they can turn it around now or watch their 2026 season continue to crumble.

There needs to be answers for what to do with Devers. Here are a few options, whether popular opinion, or not.

Continue to play Devers

Everybody goes through a slump, right? Devers is no different. He's going to go through a lull, break out with a couple slugs out of the park and get back into form. Before we know it, this will be something we look back on and say "boy did we overreact."

That's best-case scenario. Sometimes that's how baseball goes — you need more and more games to shake out of a slump. Keeping confidence in Devers will allow him to remain confident in himself, which in turn will eventually translate to the diamond.

Bench Devers

Sit 'em down. Not for good, but with a 22-34 record, why not shake things up for a week to see how things go? USA TODAY baseball columnist Bob Nightengale posed a question that Giants faithful have wondered themselves: Why are the Giants not utilizing top prospect Bryce Eldridge?

Nightengale said it best when he wrote: "It’s like having a Porsche 911 Carrera and being instructed not to exceed 50 miles per hour. It’s getting a custom Armani suit but told it can only be worn at family barbeques. It’s like winning an all-inclusive Tahiti beach vacation for two, but your plus-one is your grandmother."

Eldridge is a 6-foot-7, 251-pound, first-round pick that’s one of the prized young hitters in baseball. Not to mention he's just the tender age of 21. Maybe a first-year skipper like Tony Vitello doesn't want to bring in the young gun in place of Devers, the 10-year MLB veteran. Both also play first base.

If Devers continues to have offensive woes, San Francisco has to look elsewhere and Eldridge could be the answer. At least playing youth will give fans some optimism after an abysmal start to the season.

Trade Devers

This might be the last straw. If the first two options are exercised and there's promise with Eldridge, then the next considerable move would be to see what the demand for Devers is and place him on the trade market. Devers is one of the high-priced players the team would "love to unload," according to previous USA TODAY reports. Devers is the highest-paid player on the team and still has $226.5 million remaining on his contract that runs through 2033.

San Francisco could look for an exit route, especially given his play since he first joined the Giants in a 2025 trade with the Red Sox.

Referring back to the previous options, if Devers is benched and someone such as Eldridge shows potential, or the Giants start clicking, then the move might be to find a new home for Devers. Bleacher Report's Zachary Rymer detailed a list of teams that could be potential suitors for Devers that included the Texas Rangers, San Diego Padres, Detroit Tigers, Seattle Mariners and Atlanta Braves.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: What will San Francisco Giants do about Rafael Devers' sluggish start?

Should the Phillies begin contract extension talks with Jhoan Duran?

May 23, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Jhoan Duran (59) reacts after a strike out to end the game for a win against the Cleveland Guardians at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Jhoan Duran has been every bit the elite closer he was advertised as since arriving in Philadelphia last year. In 40 appearances since joining the Phillies at the trade deadline last season, Duran is 27 for 30 in save opportunities with a 1.93 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He’s off to a great start so far in 2026, as Duran is a perfect 11 for 11 in save opportunities and sports a 1.62 ERA through 17 appearances. He’s been especially dominant since returning from the injured list on May 5th, as he has allowed two runs across 10 appearances on 7 hits with 18 strikeouts to 5 walks. 

Naturally, whenever a trade acquisition has been this good with a new team, the idea of a contract extension will inevitably be brought up. Duran is currently under team control via arbitration through the 2027 season and will be eligible for free agency at age 30. He is making $7.5M this season, a nice increase from the $4M he made in 2025. An extension is at least partially on Duran’s mind, as he declined an invitation to pitch in the World Baseball Classic due to his lack of long-term security. 

So what would a Duran extension look like? A few recent reliever deals may help paint a picture. Edwin Diaz signed a five year, $103M deal with the Mets prior to 2023 and opted out of the final two years of the deal to hit free agency last offseason. That’s when he agreed to a new three-year deal with the Dodgers worth $69M. That Dodgers deal effectively added an extra year to his original Mets deal and an additional $31M, bringing the total value to $134M over six years for an estimated average annual value of $22M. Josh Hader signed a five year, $95M contract with the Astros prior to 2024 that will pay him an estimated $19M a season. Diaz was 29 when he signed his original deal with the Mets and was 32 when he signed his new deal with the Dodgers while Hader was 30 when he signed with the Astros. 

Using those two as a barometer, and assuming Duran continues on his current pace, we can expect that a Jhoan Duran contract extension would cost at least $20M a season and be around five years in length. A five year, $100M+ deal for a reliever may seem terrifying, but that is now the going rate for closers of Duran’s caliber. If the Phillies want to lock up Duran and officially make him a part of their future pitching core with Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo, it will behoove them to move sooner rather than later before the closer market balloons again. That is before even factoring in the unknown status of MLB’s financial system in the next CBA.

So, should the Phillies begin negotiations with Jhoan Duran over a contract extension? If so, what contract would you offer? Or should they let him play out his current team control and address it later? 

Cubs 7, Pirates 2: Pittsburgh-area native Ian Happ does it again

The Cubs broke their long losing streak with a 10-4 win over the Pirates Wednesday, though that game was close until the late innings after the Cubs had taken an early lead.

They followed the same script Thursday, though it took them a while to break through against Paul Skenes. Even so, a 3-0 lead became 3-2 and it felt a bit too close for a while until Ian Happ’s eighth-inning homer keyed a three-run inning, leading to a 7-2 Cubs win over the Pirates. Hey, a baby winning streak, two in a row!

Paul Skenes had no trouble to start things off, retiring 10 of the first 11 Cubs, seven of those by strikeout. The first Cub to reach base until the fourth was Dansby Swanson, who walked in the third.

Pete Crow-Armstrong then singled and tried to stretch that into two bases when Swanson drew a throw to third.

Not a good idea, Pete [VIDEO].

I understand wanting to be aggressive on the bases and the play was, indeed, close. But against a pitcher like Skenes who’s dealing? Why not just have runners on first and third with two out?

Colin Rea was matching zeroes with Skenes, though he did give up a double in the first and walked and hit a batter in the third.

Then Michael Busch walked with one out in the fourth and one out later, Ian Happ singled.

Seiya Suzuki’s single gave the Cubs the lead [VIDEO].

Fact about that run from BCB’s JohnW53:

This was the third time in their eight games facing Skenes that the Cubs scored first. They won both of the previous two, also at Pittsburgh, 14-10 on Aug. 28, 2024, and 4-1 on Sept. 16 of last year. Skenes got the loss in the first game and no decision in the second.

1-0 Cubs was how the game stayed until the top of the sixth. Busch walked for the second time and Alex Bregman reached on a throwing error.

An infield single by Happ and another Pirates error made it 2-0 [VIDEO].

Bregman took third on the play and that was it for Skenes, who threw 103 pitches in 5.1 innings. That’s always a good game plan against Skenes — try to run up his pitch count and get him out of the game as early as possible. He did strike out 10 Cubs. Mason Montgomery relieved Skenes and got Suzuki to hit a ground ball, but Suzuki beat a possible double-play relay and Bregman crossed the plate with the third Cubs run [VIDEO].

The Pirates, though, made it close in the bottom of the sixth. Bryan Reynolds, always tough on Cubs pitching, homered, his 14th all-time against the Cubs. Two more hits, including an RBI double from rookie Tyler Callihan off reliever Hoby Milner, made it 3-2. The second run was charged to Rea, who overall I thought threw pretty well. Here’s a summary of Rea’s outing [VIDEO].

Caleb Thielbar threw a scoreless seventh, striking out two, and then the Cubs blew the game open in the top of the eighth — all with two out and nobody on base. Bregman singled and Happ followed with his 12th home run of the year [VIDEO].

That ball was crushed! [VIDEO]

Here’s a cool field-level view of Happ’s homer [VIDEO].

The Cubs were not done in that inning. Suzuki singled and pinch-hitter Michael Conforto walked. Both runners moved up on a wild pitch, and as ball four was thrown to Miguel Amaya, the pitch got by Pirates catcher Henry Davis and Suzuki scored to make it 6-2 [VIDEO].

Trent Thornton threw a 1-2-3 eighth, all on ground outs, and the Cubs then extended their lead in the top of the ninth. PCA walked and Nico Hoerner singled. PCA drew a throw again when he tried for third, and this time he was safe, with Nico taking second.

Then this happened [VIDEO].

Bregman hit a grounder to second and the Pirates threw home to try to get PCA. He was called out, but the call was overturned on review to make it 7-2. You can see PCA’s right hand touch the plate just before he was tagged

Thornton allowed a leadoff single in the ninth, then got a double-play ball and this fly to deep right field to end the game [VIDEO].

Nice work by Thornton, who got six outs on only 22 pitches. He’s become a real asset in the bullpen.

More on this win from John:

With their win Thursday night, the Cubs are 164-156 since 2000 in games immediately after ones in which they had scored at least 10 runs. They are 4-2 this season.

The Cubs averaged 12.02 runs in the double-digit games, then 4.83 in the next games, including 6.66 in the wins.

Here’s Happ on his home run, on facing Skenes and about Rea’s game [VIDEO].

Happ appears to be starting one of his hot streaks. He went 5-for-11 in the last two games in Pittsburgh with two home runs and seven RBI. Also, this fun fact about Happ:

Here are Craig Counsell’s postgame comments [VIDEO].

The win put the Cubs in second place in the NL Central, half a game ahead of the Cardinals (despite having one more loss) and four games behind the Brewers. And they’ll have a chance to put more distance between themselves and the Cardinals beginning tonight, as they open their first 2026 series against their division rivals in St. Louis. Shōta Imanaga will start for the Cubs and Andre Pallante goes for the Cardinals. Game time is 6:15 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network.

What’s Mike Yastrzemski been doing with his copious free time?

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - MAY 23: Mike Yastrzemski #18 of the Atlanta Braves runs to first against the Washington Nationals in the third inning at Truist Park on May 23, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Brett Davis/Getty Images) | Getty Images

More of a silly one today than anything else.

Mike Yastrzemski started off… poorly… with his new team. He had a 71 wRC+ through April 15; it dipped to 60 by the time April ended. On May 9, he was down to 46. And then, some stuff happened. He hit two homers, amid six total hits, over his next six games, only four of which were starts. Then, a few days later, he had a huge, 3-for-3 with a homer and a double game against the Marlins. His wRC+ wasn’t fully recovered, but it was up to 91 for the season.

That was about a week ago. Since then, the Braves have faced a bunch of lefties. Since then, Yastrzemski has had all of six PAs. Two series, six games, only four games in which he even appeared, one (bases-loaded, go-ahead) walk, one hit. He’s up to a 93 wRC+.

But, what has he been doing with his free time, since the universe has conspired to make sure the Braves face seemingly every lefty pitcher in existence?

Note: yes, this post has mentioned Yastrzemski’s outputs and their upswing, but his inputs have been sadder. On the season, he is outhitting his xwOBA by over .020, which is not inspiring given that his xwOBA is so low. His xwOBA was .259 through the May 9 nadir mentioned above. He then posted a great .377 xwOBA in his charged-up ten game stretch.

So … is Coby Mayo good now?

WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 17: Coby Mayo #16 of the Baltimore Orioles hits a two-run home run against the Washington Nationals during the second inning at Nationals Park on May 17, 2026, in Washington, DC. (Photo by Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Back in February, Jordan Westburg got a double-whammy of bad news: after suffering an oblique strain, he started feeling elbow discomfort, only to learn he’d partly torn his UCL—a bad injury, under any circumstances. Most people figured that Jordan Westburg was gone for this calendar year (this even before it was announced in May that he’d have season-ending elbow surgery), and someone had to step into the void at third base.

The obvious candidate to replace him: 24-year-old Coby Mayo, a power hitter who rose through the farm system as an infielder, though he’d lately switched to first base. A career .905 OPS hitter in the Minors, Mayo had the bat to fill the gap left by Westburg, a point his Grapefruit League performance made emphatically: Mayo hit .389 with a 1.039 OPS in spring, striking out just four times in the process. Now, with Westburg sidelined indefinitely, this looked like his chance.

Well, just because you need a hero doesn’t always mean you get one.

This, at least, is what we were saying for the first two months of the season.

From late March to most of May, Mayo was hitting .174/.242/.321, striking out in over 30% of his plate appearances, with a 41% whiff rate on curveballs. The line was bad enough that when Westburg’s injury was upgraded to season-ending the first week of May, the news was greeted with something like dread, because at this point, the conversation around Mayo (and Colton Cowser, for that matter) suggested less that they’d be rotation saviors or stalwarts, and more that is was plausible they should be optioned. At one point in early May, Mayo had gone 4-for-35 over a 13-game stretch. The prospect bloom, it seemed, had finally and definitively come off the rose.

Yet it’s now late May, and, I’m pleased to report, something seems to have shifted in Mayo’s offensive approach.

Over the last 14 days, Mayo has hit .292/.393/.458, with an .851 OPS. He homered last night, the only Orioles run plated in a 2-1 loss to Toronto, and of six home runs he’s hit on the year, three have come since May 11. Over the last seven days, the numbers are even more eye-catching: .429/.500/.571 (in two games, owing to time missed with a back injury). Yes, it’s a fragile, fledgling little Oriole of a sample set. But the recent results aren’t coming out of nowhere, either.

Statcast data shows that the gap between Mayo’s surface stats and his quality of contact has been wide all year. His average exit velocity of 91.1 mph is in the 85th percentile of hitters, and his hard-hit rate of 45.3% 80th: such contact usually produces sluggers, not .195 hitters. In other words, Mayo has been hitting the ball hard into outs at an unusual rate, and the recent results may simply reflect some of that contact luck normalizing.

There’s also reason to think the improvement is at least partly behavioral, not purely luck. Mayo spent the offseason at TBT Training in Boca Raton doing something he’d never done before: grinding specifically on off-speed pitches. He and his trainers cranked a pitching machine to extreme movement profiles, using foam balls to simulate the nastiest sliders and curveballs major league pitchers could throw. “That was the first time I really went into the offseason and grinded like that with off-speed,” Mayo said in spring training.

For a while, the payoff of such work was pretty hard to see. A 41% whiff rate on curveballs told us as much. But Mayo seems to be trending in the right direction: in the month of May, his BA on breaking balls has leapt 80 points, despite seeing even more of the pitch. What’s more, nearly half of his hits this month have come on breaking or offspeed pitches. Perhaps he’s adjusting, and pitchers will conclude they can’t just feed him junk anymore.

Anyway, irresponsible article headline aside, we’ll need a lot more evidence before we proclaim a total rehabilitation of Coby Mayo. But at least things are looking better. The whole team, it appears, was cold at the plate in April, but they’ve hiked their batting average as a unit nearly thirty points in the last two weeks. For Mayo, the underlying tools visible in his Statcast data all year are starting to flash.

At any rate, a 6’5” right-handed hitter with plus-plus raw power, a 45% hard-hit rate, and a demonstrated willingness to do the work on his weaknesses is not a player the O’s should give up on in late May of his age-24 season, not with Westburg gone for the season and no one really knocking on the door.

The Orioles, to their credit, haven’t. Mayo’s manager Craig Albernaz has been explicit about the philosophy: “You sucked today, you’re gonna play tomorrow.” That kind of patience from a coaching staff is exactly what the young Mayo needs to break through the wall.