TAMPA, FL - FEBRUARY 21: Oswaldo Cabrera #95 of the New York Yankees smiles before the game against the Detroit Tigers at George M. Steinbrenner Field on February 21, 2026 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by New York Yankees/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The moment that news broke late Friday afternoon that the Yankees would be optioning Jasson Domínguez to Triple-A, it seemed like a cinch that big-league veteran Randal Grichuk would make their Opening Day roster. Although he arrived to camp as a late-signing non-roster invitee and manager Aaron Boone tried to make it sound like it wasn’t a sure thing that be with them at the start of 2026 (even saying so yesterday), Grichuk so clearly seemed to fit what the Yankees claimed they were looking for all winter: a righty-hitting bench outfielder.
As such, it has to come to pass: Grichuk will be on the 2026 Yankees, per Boone’s report on Saturday morning. Domínguez wasn’t the only player who had to make room for Grichuk given the crowded roster situation, and so came the related news that utilityman Oswaldo Cabrera would begin the year in Triple-A:
Randal Grichuk has made the team, Aaron Boone said.
Cabrera had an option and is coming back from a pretty brutal ankle injury, only making it into seven games thus far in spring training. So for as solid as a bench option as he is at full health, he’s not quite there yet, and he can keep getting regular reps at Scranton rather than rarely playing in the majors. More likely than not, he’ll be needed sooner rather than later given the overall age of the Yankees’ roster.
As for Grichuk, he’s not terribly exciting on the surface, but as Estevão noted earlier in March, there’s a reason why he had the Yankees were interested in him. Is it possible that he was just cooked in his 85 OPS+ age-33 season last year? Sure. However, he has an .819 career OPS against lefties and that figure was .913 as recently as 2024. So it’s worth the flyer to see if he still has that in him, especially when the roster flexibility is available at the moment with Cabrera and Domínguez’s options (and need for playing time).
Just to throw my hat in the ring on Opening Day roster projections, here’s what I think it could be as of now, acknowledging that Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, and Anthony Volpe will all begin the year on the IL:
Catchers (2) Austin Wells J.C. Escarra
Infielders (6) Ben Rice Jazz Chisholm Jr. José Caballero Ryan McMahon Paul Goldschmidt Amed Rosario
Starting Pitchers (5) Max Fried Cam Schlittler Luis Gil Ryan Weathers Will Warren
Bullpen (8) David Bednar Camilo Doval Fernando Cruz Tim Hill Ryan Yarbrough Paul Blackburn Cade Winquest Jake Bird
That last spot in the bullpen could go to someone like Brent Headrick rather than Bird, but aside from that, this all seems to be in order. What do you think?
GLENDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 16: Tyler Glasnow #31 of the Los Angeles Dodgers walks to the dugout during a Spring Training game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Camelback Ranch on March 16, 2026 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images) | Getty Images
After six weeks in Arizona, the Dodgers return home to Southern California to finish up their exhibition season with the Freeway Series against the Angels. First up is a game in Anaheim on Sunday night at Angel Stadium.
Tyler Glasnow takes the hill in his final spring tuneup for the regular season, which for the right-hander likely begins next weekend against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Non-roster right-hander George Klassen starts for the Halos.
There aren't many chances left to find Spring Training betting edges, with today being the final Saturday of exhibition play.
My MLB picks have scoured the board to find the best bets to make on March 21.
See why the White Sox top my trio of road team moneylines for today.
Spring Training predictions for March 21
Pick
Odds
COL moneyline
+135
SD moneyline
-110
CHW moneyline
+105
Pick #1: Rockies moneyline
This is a pitching mismatch based on Cactus League results.
Colorado Rockies SP Kyle Freeland has bounced back nicely from a dismal 2025, authoring a 1.80 ERA through five innings this spring. He was last seen blanking the Chicago Cubs over three frames.
Cole Ragans counters for the Kansas City Royals, and he enters play with a monstrous 8.44 ERA. He's surrendered 14 hits over 10 2/3 innings, and has allowed at least two ER in three straight appearances.
The Padres also have the better of the two starters going for them today in Randy Vasquez. He's pitched to a 4.15 ERA so far, fanning 11 batters over 8 2/3 innings.
Meanwhile, Robert Gasser totes a 9.95 ERA into this one. He's allowed three homers in just 5 1/3 innings of work.
Pick #3: White Sox moneyline
The Chicago White Sox are on the long end of what's arguably the biggest starting pitching mismatch of the day, yet they are underdogs. Sign me up.
Ryan Borucki rocks a 2-0 record with a spotless ERA. He's allowed only four hits and a walk while striking out five batters over four frames.
Cincinnati Reds SP Andrew Abbott looks ready for regression after an incredible 2025 campaign. He's 1-3 with a 13.85 ERA in Cactus League action, allowing 18 ER over 11 frames.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
GLENDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 16: Will Klein #61 of the Los Angeles Dodgers participates in a fielding drill prior to a Spring Training game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Camelback Ranch on March 16, 2026 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Dodgers finish up the Arizona portion of their spring training by hosting the A’s on getaway day Saturday at Camelback Ranch.
Lineup
Alex Call LF Santiago Espinal 1B Dalton Rushing C Alex Freeland 2B Nick Senzel 3B Hyeseong Kim SS Jack Suwinski RF Jaron Elkins CF Kellon Lindsey DH
Elkins (wearing uniform number 88) and Lindsey (89) are up from minor league camp. It’s the first game this spring for Lindsey, the Dodgers’ first-round draft pick in 2024.
Emmet Sheehan starts on the mound.
Other pitchers
Will Klein is also scheduled to pitch on Saturday.
Up from minor league camp are Jerming Rosario (81), Matt Lanzendorfer (87), Christian Suárez (90), Dilan Figueredo (91), Javier Bartolozzi (92), Jacob Frost (94), and Keynan Middleton (98).
Other position players
Non-roster catchers Eliézer Alfonzo and Seby Zavala are active.
Up from minor league camp are infielders Jake Gelof (93), Joe Vetrano (95), Jose Izarra (00), Sean McLain (01), and Austin Gauthier (03), plus outfielders Kole Myers (02), Damon Keith (05), and Samuel Muñoz (06).
PORT CHARLOTTE, FLORIDA - MARCH 15, 2026: Manager Kevin Cash #16 of the Tampa Bay Rays makes a pitching change during the fourth inning of a spring training game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Charlotte Sports Park on March 15, 2026 in Port Charlotte, Florida. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
First pitch against the Minnesota Twins is at 1:05 at Charlotte Sports Park and the Rays will be providing tv and radio coverage.
Feb 18, 2026; Port St. Lucie, FL, USA; New York Mets pitcher Jonah Tong (21) throws a pitch during spring training workouts at Clover Park. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images | Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images
Mets at Nationals
Mets lineup
Carson Benge – RF
Mark Vientos – 1B
Jared Young – DH
Luis Torrens – C
Tyrone Taylor – LF
Vidal Brujan – 2B
Jacob Reimer – 3B
Cristian Pache – CF
Yonny Hernandez – SS
SP: Joander Suarez – RHP
Nationals lineup
Nasim Nunez – 2B
Jose Tena – 3B
Keibert Ruiz – C
Luis Garcia – 1B
Andres Chaparro – DH
Joey Wiemer – CF
Christian Franklin – RF
Seaver King – SS
Sam Petersen – LF
SP: Cade Cavalli – RHP
Broadcast info
First pitch: 1:05 PM EDT TV: Nope Radio: Not this time
Mets vs Astros
Mets lineup
Francisco Lindor – SS
Juan Soto – LF
Bo Bichette – DH
Jorge Polanco – 1B
Luis Robert – CF
Brett Baty – 3B
Marcus Semien – 2B
Mike Tauchman – RF
Francisco Alvarez – C
SP: Jonah Tong – RHP
Astros lineup
Joey Loperfido – LF
Isaac Paredes – 2B
Cam Smith – RF
Zach Cole – CF
Christian Walker – 1B
Yainer Diaz – C
Cavan Biggio – DH
Riley Unroe – 3B
Nick Allen – SS
SP: Mike Burrows – RHP
Broadcast info
First pitch: 1:10 PM EDT TV: PIX 11 Radio: Audacy Mets Radio WHSQ 880AM, Audacy App 92.3 HD2
NORTH PORT, FL - MARCH 14: Fans sit in the sun in the outfield during the spring training game between the Boston Red Sox and the Atlanta Braves on March 14, 2026 at CoolToday Park in North Port, FL. (Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The Braves have one of their final tune-ups of spring against the Red Sox and they are facing Garrett Crochet, who has had a fairly unimpressive spring. Still, the star pitcher who the Braves reportedly were interested in trading for should be a good test for the Braves’ bats.
First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET and the game will be available on Gray TV in-market and 680AM/93.7FM on the radio. Elsewhere, it will be available on MLBTV.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are at home today against the Toronto Blue Jays looking to grab a win in Spring Training.
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1986(1) vs 2010 (8) G1: 2-0, ’10 G2: 3-1, ’86 G3: 6-3, ’86 G4: 6-4, ’86 Series MVP: Ray Knight
Ray Knight’s MVP streak continues, as the veteran third baseman hit two more clutch homers and drove in five runs to propel the 1986 Mets to another series victory. For a second consecutive round, the heavily favored ’86 team unexpectedly dropped a game early. 2010’s sole win was a shutout, with Johan Santana tossing seven innings and Francisco Rodríguez throwing the final two while back-to-back solo homers from Jason Bay and Henry Blanco in the eighth accounted for all the scoring. From that point on, ’86 found their stride, getting a pair of incredible pitching performances from Ron Darling (8.0 IP, 1 ER) and Bob Ojeda (7.0 IP, 1 ER) in Games 2 and 3, respectively. Rookie Ike Davis hit an early homer to give ’10 a lead in Game 4, but a three-run homer from Knight helped ’86 snatch a lead they would not relinquish. Blanco nearly hit his second homer of the game (and third of the series) in the ninth inning, but Mookie Wilson made an incredible catch just in front of the left-field fence to prevent further trouble.
2009 (12) vs 1983 (13) G1: 5-4, ’09 G2: 17-6, ’83 G3: 10-6, ’83 G4: 6-5, ’09 G5: 7-0, ’09 Series MVP: Johan Santana
When the 1983 Mets won in this series, they won big. Their lineup exploded for 17 runs on 18 hits in Game 2, scoring 14 of those runs in the first three innings (it was not John Maine’s day). In Game 3, they put up another double-digit performance aided by homers from George Foster and rookie Darryl Strawberry (who finished the series with four homers and 11 RBI). But even if their margins were less impressive, the ’09 team won a pair of hard-fought battles. In Game 1, after a Strawberry homer off submariner Pedro Feliciano gave ’83 a 4-3 lead, the ’09 team capitalized on a Wally Backman error to rally, eventually winning on a Daniel Murphy walk-off single flared down the left-field line. In Game 4, a late Strawberry homer was once again overcome, this time with the help of a ninth-inning wild pitch that allowed José Reyes to score the go-ahead run before Francisco Rodríguez slammed the door in the bottom of the frame. When Game 5 arrived, ace Johan Santana was up to the task, tossing eight innings of shutout ball and propelling the inaugural Citi squad to the sweet sixteen. Even if this is likely their last hurrah in Mets Madness (the fearsome 1986 Mets loom in the next round), they’ve certainly had a tournament to be proud of thus far.
2024 (3) vs 1968 (11) G1: 6-0, ’24 G2: 7-0, ’68 G3: 14-5, ’24 G4: 5-3, ’68 (f/11) G5: 4-2, ’68 Series MVP: Ron Swoboda
I will admit…even I, the theoretically unbiased tournament simulator, couldn’t help but wish for a redo after seeing the beloved ’24 team get blindsided by the 1968 Mets — especially when the “OMG” magic appeared alive as ever. In Game 1, ’24 scored five runs off Tom Seaver (with a Jose Iglesias homer to boot) before Francisco Lindor took Nolan Ryan deep. What could be a sign of Grimace’s presence more than that? Though they were left flailing in Game 2 against Jerry Koosman, who tossed a complete-game shutout with 11 K’s, Game 3 was a joyous rout, with ’24 clubbing six homers (two from Mark Vientos, two from Iglesias, one from Francisco Alvarez, and one from Brandon Nimmo) before Edwin Díaz struck out five of six batters faced. Game 4 was the kind of tense marathon that ’24 thrived in, except this time it was the other dugout that came away celebrating. The score was knotted at 3-3 from the fifth inning until the eleventh, with each team’s bullpen proving impervious, until Ron Swoboda slapped a two-run homer off José Buttó to force a winner-take-all elimination game. Were anyone else on the mound, perhaps ’24’s offense would be able to rally…but there’s only one Seaver. An Ed Charles homer gave ’68 late insurance, and the team of destiny was eliminated. You could say that ’24 embarrassingly underperformed in this round, but that’s insulting to the ’68 Mets, who have a clear formula for success moving forward. Seaver and Koosman pitched two gems. They won both of them. And they do, after all, represent “The Year of the Pitcher.”
1973 (2) vs 2002(10) G1: 7-1, ’73 G2: 4-3, ’02 G3: 6-3, ’02 G4: 5-4, ’02 Series MVP: Mo Vaughn
Game 1 gave the “Ya Gotta Believe” Mets every reason to believe this series would go as planned. The 1973 N.L. Champs tallied seven runs and twelve hits, while Tom Seaver appeared destined for a vintage shutout until Jeromy Burnitz hit a relatively meaningless one-out homer to left field in the ninth (there’s just something about left-handed hitters batting with one out in the ninth that seem to put a crimp in Seaver’s plans). Game 2 was closer, with the 2002 squad getting a phenomenal outing from Steve Trachsel, but the ’73 Mets still held a 3-2 lead entering the top of the ninth. That’s when the pivotal momentum change occurred. With Tug McGraw on the mound, Mo Vaughn and Mike Piazza led off the top of the ninth with back-to-back homers, and Armando Benítez slammed the door to give ’02 a shocking win. ’73 never truly recovered, with Vaughn hitting another homer and Timo Pérez hitting a clutch go-ahead single in the eighth to give ’02 a Game 3 win. ’73 found themselves down 3-2 in the eighth in Game 5, when Ron Hodges was spared a borderline strikeout call on a check swing and promptly hit a two-run single on the next pitch. But before ’73 could blink, outfielder Brady Clark (who played just 17 games with the Mets spread strangely across 2002 and 2008) hit a two-run homer off McGraw. While the Mets’ iconic lefty closer stumbled, Benítez was unhittable, tossing 3 1/3 innings of scoreless ball and inducing a Rusty Staub flyout to secure an upset series win.
QUADRANT 2
1969(1) vs 2018 (9) G1: 7-3, ’69 G2: 6-4, ’69 G3: 5-4, ’18 G4: 3-1, ’69 Series MVP: Jerry Koosman
This Series MVP award could have been given to a number of deserving candidates. It could have gone to Cleon Jones, who hit a two-run homer off Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom in the seventh inning of Game 1…and then hit a two-run homer off him again the next inning. It could have gone to Don Cardwell, the veteran of the 1969 starting staff who may very well have turned in its best performance with eight innings of one-run ball in the clinching Game 4. But it ends up with Jerry Koosman, who in Game 2 battled to throw 7.1 innings while allowing just two runs without his best stuff (he allowed ten hits and walked five) and helped his cause by hitting a go-ahead, two-run home run off Noah Syndergaard in the seventh inning. Talk about miracles. Koosman only had two career home runs in real life, which came against Bill Hands and John Montefusco (who, according to baseball-reference.com, are nicknamed “Froggy” and “The Count,” respectively). With Thor added to the mix, I think it’s safe to say that Koosman has a penchant for homering off those with striking alter-egos. If this all feels like too light-hearted of a tangent for Mets Madness, I’d argue it matches the way the ’69 Mets have played thus far: they’re having fun, they’re feeling confident, and they’re letting the good times of the ’69 postseason roll on.
1997 (4) vs 2017 (12) G1: 7-1, ’17 G2: 7-2, ’17 G3: 7-5, ’17 Series MVP: Yoenis Céspedes
Forget about winning back-to-back series as the underdog — the 2017 Mets have won every single game they’ve played thus far. They aren’t just being carried by one facet of their roster either; this series was a full-team effort, with stellar starting pitching (a Syndergaard complete-game performance followed up by eight innings and no earned runs from Jacob deGrom) and a deep lineup powered by Yoenis Céspedes, Brandon Nimmo, and Juan Lagares. Losing to this apparent surprise juggernaut must have been quite frustrating for the 1997 Mets, who entered this series coming off a first-round sweep of their own. It was so frustrating, in fact, that something happened which I didn’t even know was possible in OOTP: a benches-clearing incident. After Zack Wheeler plunked Butch Huskey and Carl Everett in consecutive at-bats during the fifth inning of Game 3, Everett allowed the frustration to boil over by — according to the play-by-play info — charging the mound. It can’t possibly have been intentional, as both hit batsmen brought a run home in a tight game. Plus, I can’t quite see Zack Wheeler being the type to go Hunter Strickland-mode in a game with these kinds of stakes. But hey, why not? It’s “Mets Madness,” not “Mets Let Cooler Heads Prevail.” I have no idea whether warnings were issued by the umpires, but I do know that the ’17 Mets have issued a warning to the rest of the tournament with their six-game win streak. They were a team with lofty expectations, plagued by injury issues…were they secretly destined for greatness after all?
20-year-old Cy Young Award winner Dwight Gooden went on quite the hero’s journey in this series. He started it by facing off against Tom Seaver (a matchup which, up until now, hadn’t happened yet in Mets Madness), and being outlasted. Gooden was good, allowing just three runs on solo shots from John Milner and Joe Torre and an RBI single from Milner; but Seaver was spectacular, tossing eight innings of scoreless ball. When Gooden and Seaver matched up again in the winner-take-all Game 5, it was Gooden’s time to shine, throwing eight scoreless innings himself and securing a series win for the 1985 Mets. Still, it was Ron Darling who delivered ’85’s best individual start, throwing a complete-game shutout in Game 2. Offensively, ’85 took their cue from Gary Carter, who had a three-hit Game 3 and delivered a two-run double in the left-center-field gap to blow Game 5 open. This series also featured two critical outfield assists. In the eighth inning of Game 1, center fielder Pepe Mangual gunned down George Foster at the plate as ’85 tried desperately to break through against Seaver. In the ninth inning of Game 2, Mangual ambitiously tried to tag at second base on a flyout (despite being the lead runner while his team trailed by two) and was gunned down at third by Darryl Strawberry. If you can hear Keith Hernandez’s voice criticizing that decision in your mind, just know that Mangual probably heard it too from the other side of the diamond.
The 1988 Mets continue to cruise through their corner of the bracket, this time riding an eight-RBI display from MVP runner-up Darryl Strawberry, who homered in Games 2 and 4. Strawberry also got ’88’s most pivotal hit: a two-out, two-run triple while trailing 5-4 in the bottom of the eighth inning of Game 2. The hit energized the team enough that Keith Hernandez promptly followed it with a two-run homer, robbing the 1971 Mets of what they hoped would be a series-evening win. The ’71 Mets did muster a victory in Game 3, getting a quality start from Roy Sadecki and scoreless relief from Buzz Capra and Danny Frisella. But Sid Fernandez shut the door in Game 4, and the heavily-favored ’88 Mets waltz on to the sweet sixteen. Plus, for all the attention on aces like Seaver, Gooden, and deGrom, 1988 David Cone might be having the single best tournament of any pitcher so far; with eight innings of one-run ball in the previous round and 8.1 scoreless innings in this one, albeit both against rather soft-hitting lineups, he’s proving he can go toe-to-toe with the best in Mets history.
QUADRANT 3
2000 (1) vs 2011(8) G1: 7-2, ’11 G2: 5-1, ’00 G3: 6-5, ’11 G4: 9-6, ’11 Series MVP: Nick Evans
This felt like one of those postseason series where a wild card team goes up against a division winner, and the latter just looks flat-out flat. The 2000 team’s offense was scoring runs, but it wasn’t quite beating up on the 2011 rotation which — aside from R.A. Dickey, who threw a two-run complete game in Game 1 — ought to have been more vulnerable. Meanwhile, the ’00 pitching staff seemed to have no answers for David Wright and batting champ José Reyes. The only ’00 win came in Game 2, when Mike Piazza hit a go-ahead homer, Darryl Hamilton went 3-for-4, and Al Leiter tossed 7.2 innings of one-run ball. Game 3 got off to a thunderous start with a five-run inning for ’00 (Rick Reed hit a bases-clearing double), but a Lucas Duda three-run homer and epic Nick Evans two-run wallscraper off John Franco gave the ’11 Mets a stunning comeback victory while the ’00 lineup complacently went quiet. Game 4 was a slugfest. The 2000 team got a pair of homers (courtesy of Robin Ventura and Edgardo Alfonzo) and scored consistently throughout, but ’11 was putting on a Home Run Derby, with Josh Thole, Wright, Daniel Murphy, and Jason Bay each going deep. The 2000 Mets may have won two series in the postseason, but they are going home after just one in Mets Madness.
1990 (4) vs 1974(12) G1: 3-2, ’90 G2: 4-2, ’74 G3: 3-1, ’74 G4: 11-1, ’74 Series MVP: George Stone
You’d think that the 1990 Mets would have an advantage here given that their end-of-season manager, Bud Harrelson, played shortstop for the opposing team. You at least think he’d have the scouting report on himself, yet Harrelson still managed to hit .312 in the series. Meanwhile, 1974’s manager Yogi Berra blew Game 1 by inexplicably leaving a tired Jerry Koosman on the mound for the ninth, when he hit a batter, walked two in a row, and finally walked Mark Carreon to allow the winning run to carry on home. But from then on, ’74 was in complete control. David Cone and Tom Seaver were both working without their best stuff in Game 2, but the more experienced Seaver was able to evade trouble, allowing only two runs while surrendering ten hits. In Game 3, Jerry Koosman tossed a four-hit complete game. And in Game 4, any hope ’90 had was turned to stone by left-hander George Stone, who tossed 6.1 innings of one-run ball while also clobbering a two-run homer to make the game a proper rout.
1987 (3) vs 2019(6) G1: 7-6, ’87 G2: 3-1, ’87 G3: 6-5, ’19 G4: 3-2, ’19 G5: 7-1, ’19 Series MVP: Pete Alonso
Of all the upsets in this round, this one felt the least surprising. That’s partially because these two teams have a less significant gap in seeding, but it’s also because the 2019 Mets possess about as much fight as a non-playoff team can have. That showed in this series, with ’19 finding themselves on the brink of elimination before winning three straight against the 1987 Mets. Jacob deGrom and Dwight Gooden both faltered in Game 1, with deGrom getting chased out early and Gooden proving vulnerable as he tired late, but ’87 held on despite a 7-2 lead turning to 7-6. In Game 2, Sid Fernandez (8.0 IP, 1 ER) outdueled Zack Wheeler (8.0 IP, 3 ER), who was tagged with the loss despite making just a pair of bad pitches which Howard Johnson and Darryl Strawberry hit out of the park. With a sweep in their sights, ’87 went up 4-0 on shoddy defensive play in Game 3, but that’s when Pete Alonso and his “LFGM” resilience kicked in. Alonso hit a seventh-inning homer which ignited an electric rally as a Jeff McNeil two-run double and Brandon Nimmo homer helped secure the win. In Game 4, ’19 once again trailed in the bottom of the seventh when Alonso dunked a two-out, two-strike RBI single into left field (shoutout as well to Michael Conforto, who gunned down Lee Mazzilli at third base to end the top of the ninth inning). In Game 5, they didn’t wait to attempt another late comeback, instead seizing an early lead on a McNeil triple and Alonso two-run homer off Gooden. The ’87 Mets have nothing to regret, and they did their best to fend off a rally-happy opponent (especially Lenny Dykstra, who multiple times made stellar plays in center field only to soon see ’19 score anyway). As for the ’19 team, their next opponent will be the toughest yet…
2006 (2)vs 2021 (10) G1: 8-5, ’06 G2: 4-3, ’06 G3: 8-1, ’06 Series MVP: José Valentín
This series began with the baseball equivalent of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object in the 2006 lineup facing 2021 Jacob deGrom (that was the year he had a 1.08 ERA in 15 starts). The ’06 offense did damage against deGrom, with José Valentín hitting a homer and Carlos Beltrán hitting two, but that alone wasn’t enough to win them the game. Billy Wagner came on for the save in the top of the ninth and was first greeted by Pete Alonso, who absolutely demolished a 455-foot, 114.4-mph homer to left-center field to tie the game. It was an epic moment for the Mets’ all-time home run king, though he was promptly one-upped by a Paul Lo Duca opposite-field, three-run homer off Edwin Díaz in the bottom of the frame to give the ’06 Mets a patented walk-off win. Alonso would hit another homer off Tom Glavine in the first inning of Game 2, but was once again thwarted by Shawn Green and Valentín’s back-to-back homers in the next inning. A Brandon Nimmo two-run homer in the top of the eighth tied the game at 3-3, but David Wright responded with a go-ahead RBI double, and Wagner redeemed himself with a clean 1-2-3 ninth inning. Game 3 showed just how much of a mismatch this series was, with the ’06 Mets scoring four runs before making two outs. ’21’s only hope was to win their opening deGrom game and steal momentum. It’s hard to imagine the ’06 powerhouse being taken down except by a rotation three or four aces deep — especially when a middle-of-the-order bat like José Valentín is slashing .455/.538/1.273 with three homers (five total now in the tournament).
QUADRANT 4
2015 (1) vs 2001(8) G1: 6-2, ’01 G2: 5-3, ’15 G3: 7-0, ’01 G4: 4-3, ’01 Series MVP: Robin Ventura
Much like in the 2015 World Series, the 2015 Mets led the majority of their losses in the late innings. In Game 1, Matt Harvey threw six scoreless while RBI singles from Wilmer Flores and Juan Lagares gave ’15 a 2-1 lead, but the bullpen imploded. Addison Reed surrendered a game-tying solo homer to Edgardo Alfonzo in the eighth, and the 2001 team tacked on four more off Jeurys Familia in the ninth. Game 2 was the N.L. Champs’ only win, with Jacob deGrom providing a dominant outing before a Curtis Granderson homer and RBI doubles from Daniel Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud helped ’15 take the lead in the eighth. In Game 3, Steve Trachsel rained on the parade with 7.2 scoreless innings while the ’01 lineup rained hit after hit upon the norse god Noah Syndergaard. In the deciding Game 4, homers from d’Arnaud and Muprhy gave ’15 a 3-0 lead by the sixth, but Steven Matz suffered a blowup inning — often his Achilles’ heel in New York — and ’01 was suddenly ahead 4-3. That was all they would need. Lucas Duda gave one a ride to the warning track in left off Armando Benítez with two outs in the ninth, but it settled into the glove of Benny Agbayani to eliminate another one-seed. Credit where credit is due: ’01’s big bats came through. Mike Piazza, Edgardo Alfonzo, and Robin Ventura (.538 average) put a hurt on ’15’s vulnerable bullpen, and they’re living to fight another day because of it.
1984 (4) vs 2004(12) G1: 2-1, ’04 G2: 7-3, ’04 G3: 8-5, ’84 G4: 5-2, ’04 Series MVP: Mike Cameron
2004’s starting pitching staff, take a bow. For a second consecutive series, ’04 managed to upset a more formidable 1980’s team on the back of their starting rotation, this time getting particularly notable outings from Tom Glavine (eight innings of one-run ball in Game 1) and Jae-Weong Seo (seven innings of three-run ball in Game 2). It’s also the second consecutive Series MVP award for Mike Cameron, a two-time Gold Glove Award winner who delivered perhaps the most highlight-worthy defensive play in Mets Madness thus far. In Game 4, the ’04 Mets clung to a three-run lead with the bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the ninth. Wally Backman hit a bullet to center off rookie Heath Bell, which Cameron broke in and made a diving catch on to end the series. Offensively, ’04 received particularly strong showings from rookies David Wright (game-tying homer in Game 3) and Kaz Matsui (go-ahead single in Game 2), as well as Cliff Floyd, who hit a tone-setting two-run homer in the first inning of Game 4. If you’re wondering what the ’04 team has going for them as they continue to surprise in the tournament, consider this: perhaps no other team has the number of iconic Mets leaders (Wright, Mike Piazza, John Franco, Al Leiter, etc.) that they do. If there’s one team that can handle the pressure of future rounds against favored opponents, perhaps it’s them.
2013(11) vs 1977 (14) G1: 1-0, ’77 G2: 1-0, ’13 (f/10) G3: 3-2, ’13 (f/12) G4: 8-3, ’13 Series MVP: Ike Davis
In the first 31 innings of this series, seven total runs were scored. In Game 1, the 2013 team somewhat characteristically managed to lose despite getting eight spectacular innings from Matt Harvey, who was throwing a no-hitter until the seventh and allowed only an unearned run (kudos to Jerry Koosman as well for seven scoreless innings). In Game 2, Jon Matlack met the same fate for the 1977 squad, as the left-hander tossed 8.1 scoreless innings but was matched by ’13’s southpaw starter Jon Niese. The game mercilessly came to an end when David Wright dunked an RBI single just in front of Lee Mazzilli in center in the bottom of the tenth inning, allowing Eric Young Jr. to dash home. Game 3’s score was stuck at 1-1 until the eleventh, when Lucas Duda hit a solo homer and Bud Harrelson responded with an RBI single to send us to the twelfth. A Daniel Murphy RBI double finally did the trick, and 37-year-old Scott Atchison was able to nail down the save. Then, we got the eleven-run offensive explosion that was Game 4, thanks to this series’ MVP by default: Ike Davis, who hit two homers to help ’13 secure a comfortable final win. Relative to this series’ run environment, that basically makes him Barry Bonds.
I ended the entry for 1999’s win in the prior round by writing that their lineup “put the rest of the tournament on notice.” How do you make good on that warning? You immediately tag Tom Seaver for 7 runs and 12 hits in just 4 innings. That being said, this wasn’t a walk in the park for the ’99 team. Jerry Koosman gave them fits early in Game 2, but the lineup bore him down and crept back from down 4-1 with the help of a Robin Ventura homer and later go-ahead sac fly. Game 3 was one of the most enthralling back-and-forth battles of this round, with Tommie Agee and Mike Piazza trading homers early, ’70 taking advantage of sloppy defensive play by ’99, Edgardo Alfonzo hitting what at one point seemed a decisive homer off lefty Rich Folkers, and Cleon Jones slamming into the left-field fence to preserve the tie in the top of the eleventh. Minutes later, Joe Foy foiled ’99’s hopes of a sweep with a walk-off, seeing-eye single through the right side. But despite ’70 stealing another win in Game 4 by scrapping together a few runs off right-hander Dennis Cook, ’99 ended this series by reminding us who they really are with another absurd offensive display. 15 runs. 13 hits. Another homer from Ventura and…an 8-RBI game from Roger Cedeño? I’ll say it again: the rest of the tournament is on notice.
PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. — Despite a healthy pitching staff, the Mets will not open the season with a six-man rotation, Carlos Mendoza revealed on the penultimate day of Grapefruit League action on Saturday.
In the midst of a rocky spring, Sean Manaea will move to the bullpen in a piggyback role to begin the season.
Mendoza offered his pitching plans to begin the season on Saturday, with Freddy Peralta tabbed for Opening Day and David Peterson and Nolan McLean to follow suit for the first three games of the season against the Pirates. Clay Holmes and Kodai Senga, in that order, will take the next two games against the Cardinals in St. Louis.
"We were pretty honest with all of them at the beginning of camp, if everyone was healthy, we were going to have to make some tough decisions and one of them was going to be pitching in that type of role," Mendoza said. "The way we see it is (Manaea's) taking that turn right now and probably two times through the rotation because of the schedule and the off days. We don't feel like we need a sixth starter yet."
Manaea has allowed four earned runs on seven hits and two walks across 9⅔ innings with nine strikeouts. The 34-year-old, who is in the second year of a three-year, $75 million deal, has seen his velocity linger in the high-80s throughout spring training.
"The velo's got nothing to do here," Mendoza said. "Not that we had anything in mind, we just needed to get through spring training, and we still got to get through the next two, three days, but we're getting to a point where we're lining up guys."
How will Sean Manaea's role look out of the bullpen
The Mets still view Manaea as a starting pitcher. His presence in the bullpen will have no bearing on whether the club elects to carry a second left-hander alongside Brooks Raley, whether it be Bryan Hudson or Richard Lovelady.
Mendoza said that there will not be a set day that Manaea pitches but they have to be cognizant of his preparation as he remains in the equation as a starer down the line.
"Depending on where you are in the game, who's available that day in the bullpen, how much you use those guys. There's some flexibility there, but we're not gonna go too many days without having to pitch Sean. We have to keep him somehow on his schedule."
Manaea will be used as an option to shoulder the load on a day where the bullpen needs some rest, and the Mets will not be afraid to use him in a high-leverage situation across multiple innings.
How did Sean Manea's switch come about?
A season ago, Manaea missed the first three months of the season with an oblique strain and pitched with loose bodies in his elbow over the last three months. He struggled to find his footing upon his return, finishing with a 2-4 record with a 5.64 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 60⅔ innings.
The Mets shifted Manaea to the bullpen for two games down the stretch last September.
This spring, Manaea has been mixing a cutter and more of his sinker this spring to try and keep offenses off-balance. As the velocity has dipped, Manaea has said he's hopeful there will be a spike with additional energy in the regular season. The left-hander, who tweaked his delivery two seasons ago to the throw more from the side, has never been a power pitcher.
"It's low but at the end of day, I feel good. I'm not concerned about it whatsoever," Manaea said. "When I get up to Citi Field and get some adrenaline going, I think it'll shoot back up."
The left-hander had been one of the team's most dependable arms during their deep postseason run in 2024. He threw a career-high 181⅔ innings and notched a 12-6 record with a 3.47 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 184 strikeouts. He was 2-1 with victories over the Phillies and Dodgers on the Mets' run to the National League Championship Series.
Before joining the Mets in the 2024 season, Manaea had been used in a swing role in his one season with the Giants.
The Mets’ six-man rotation will be a five-plus to begin the season.
Sean Manaea has been squeezed to the bullpen for the first two times through the rotation, manager Carlos Mendoza said Saturday, leaving the veteran lefty in a piggyback role.
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Freddy Peralta, David Peterson, Nolan McLean, Clay Holmes and Kodai Senga are aligned to pitch the first time through the rotation.
Peralta is slated to return for Game 6, in St. Louis.
“Six guys throwing the ball really well and we were pretty honest with all of them at the beginning of camp that if everyone was healthy, we were going to have to make some tough decisions,” Mendoza said.
Off days early in the schedule preclude the Mets from needing a sixth starter immediately.
Manaea, whose velocity has dipped in spring training, was “not happy” with the decision, according to Mendoza.
Sean Manaea is the odd man out to start the season. Rhona Wise-Imagn Images
“But he was very respectful and he understood,” Mendoza said.
“Right now, it’s Sean doing it, but it could easily be somebody else, and they are well aware of that.”
Manaea was a weak link in the rotation last season, pitching to a 5.64 ERA in 15 appearances.
Carlos Mendoza said the Mets will start with a five-man rotation. Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
He missed half of the season rehabbing from a strained oblique and elbow discomfort caused by a loose body.
Manea’s schedule to pitch will remain fluid, according to Mendoza, with no set spot in which he will piggyback a starter.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 21: Jacob Young #30 of the Washington Nationals, center, celebrates with teammates Robert Hassell III #57, left, and Dylan Crews #3, right, after a win against the New York Mets at Citi Field on September 21, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by Heather Khalifa/Getty Images) | Getty Images
If you are a Washington Nationals fan, I would recommend making a trip up to Rochester, New York this April. Recent demotions have made the Nats Triple-A affiliate one of the most fascinating in the minors. Dylan Crews being sent down solidified the Rochester Red Wings as being must see TV.
There are multiple former top 10 picks, an All-Star, and a top 100 prospect the Nationals acquired this offseason. The Rochester Red Wings have never been more interesting than they are right now. I am not sure if that is a good thing or a bad thing, but they certainly have my attention. Let’s run through some of the big names down there and discuss when we could see them in DC.
Dylan Crews is the biggest name down there, so I want to start by talking about him. Despite a woeful spring, the decision to send Crews down was a surprise. Crews still has so much pedigree and is a massive name. Sending him down is a gutsy decision by the new regime. At the same time, it makes all the sense in the world.
Dylan Crews got sent to Triple-A. Even though it is quite the surprise, I think the move makes sense. It is a big statement though https://t.co/44qlI60mWh
When Crews was in Triple-A in 2024, he was good but not great. He posted a .795 OPS in 49 games with the Red Wings. That was enough for Mike Rizzo to call him up to the big leagues though. Crews was pretty clearly rushed, with Rizzo looking at his college pedigree rather than his relatively mediocre minor league numbers.
Now Crews will truly get a chance to master the level and develop properly. Rochester will be a good place for him to do that. Matthew LeCroy is a beloved manager up in Rochester and they also have a pair of strong hitting minds. Brian Daubach was retained as the Triple-A hitting coach, a role he has had since 2018. His experience will be combined with the new analytically minded assistant hitting coach Travis Fitta. Hopefully those two can help rebuild Crews.
However, Dylan Crews is far from the only interesting character in Rochester. There will also be a former All-Star in the Red Wings rotation to start the season. That would be Josiah Gray, who is back after missing most of the last two seasons due to Tommy John Surgery.
In the first half of 2023, Gray was emerging as part of the Nats long term plans in the rotation. Gray was part of the Max Scherzer/Trea Turner return and was looking like a middle of the rotation arm in 2023. There was some luck involved in his great first half, but he was still a dependable arm.
Josiah Gray has gone from being statistically one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB over the last two seasons to No. 5 among all National League pitchers in bWAR for this season & now an All-Star. Tremendous step-forward season for him. Great to see. #Nats
Now, he is on the mend, looking to re-establish himself after missing so much time. The 28 year old is very likely to get his shot in the Nats rotation at some point. However, he still needs to find some sharpness in AAA. His breaking stuff looks crisp, but his velocity is down from his pre-surgery levels. Gray is confident that velo will come with more reps.
Gray will be throwing to a big name catcher in Harry Ford. The Nats acquired Ford in a trade that sent Jose A. Ferrer to Seattle. After the trade, I figured Ford would be the starting catcher right away. He had a great year in Triple-A last year and made his big league debut. Ford was even on the Mariners playoff roster.
However, the Nats decided that he needed more seasoning. Ford did not light the world on fire this spring, so the team decided to roll with Keibert Ruiz instead. He also spent some time away from the team at the WBC, which may have hurt his case. Ford did have a couple big moments, including a homer for Great Britain at the event.
— Baseball Unstitched (@BaseUnstitched) March 6, 2026
That was not enough for him to lock down a job though. If he has a strong start to the season, I think he could be in the big leagues pretty quickly. There could be some service time games being played here with Ford. If he is down for a few weeks, the Nats will gain an extra year of team control.
The young catcher had an .868 OPS in AAA last year, so I expect him to hit while he is in the minors. After years of bad catching, I am really excited to see what Ford can do when he gets to DC. We will have to watch him in Rochester first though.
Those three are far from the only intriguing players in Rochester. Another big name in AAA is Robert Hassell III. The former top 10 pick was a big piece in the Juan Soto trade and made his MLB debut last year. While Hassell struggled in the big leagues, he did hit .310 with an .839 OPS in AAA.
Hassell’s development has not gone as expected since coming to DC, but he is still just 24 years old. He showed some of the hitting chops he was known for in the past last season. However, that did not translate to the MLB. If he can hit in AAA again, he will get another shot.
A few pitchers I am interested in seeing are Luis Perales, Riley Cornelio, Mitchell Parker and Andrew Alvarez. All of them have interesting traits. Parker has been in the Nats rotation the last two years, while Cornelio broke out in a big way last year. Perales is a top prospect the Nats got in a trade with the Red Sox. He is a fireballer, but his size and control questions give him relief risk. Alvarez is a crafty lefty who looked good at the end of last season and in the spring.
If you want to see one of the most interesting teams in Minor League baseball, go up to Rochester. You are going to have to do it quickly because some of these players will be in the big leagues soon. I know I will be checking Rochester Red Wings box scores every day and you should too.
Dodger Stadium used to suffocate offense, now it invites it.
For decades, Dodger Stadium lived on the reputation of a pitcher’s park. A place where fly balls went to die under the Southern California night, where the marine layer rolled in like a silent accomplice.
Not anymore.
According to a RotoWire MLB study built on Statcast data from 2020 through 2025, Dodger Stadium has quietly — and now unmistakably — become Major League Baseball’s most prolific home run haven. Not Coors Field. Not Cincinnati’s bandbox. Not the Bronx. Los Angeles. With 1,241 home runs launched into its bleachers and beyond, it sits atop the sport, narrowly ahead of Great American Ball Park (1,221) and Yankee Stadium (1,216).
Dodger Stadium stands alone as baseball’s most prolific home run haven. Getty Images
Part of the shift in Dodger Stadium going from a pitcher’s park to the most home run-friendly park in baseball is hitting philosophy. The Dodgers hired Robert Van Scoyoc as their hitting coach ahead of the 2019 season, reinforcing a commitment to modern, launch-angle-oriented hitting philosophies.
Another part is roster construction. You’ve heard of the Bronx Bombers, right? Well, what about the Dodger Destroyers. Los Angeles has been in the top five in total home runs every season going back to 2020, and they hammered 244 home runs alone in 2025, 142 of them at home. When you consistently trot a lineup full of former MVPs who love the long ball, your home run totals are going to rise.
At the center of this power surge stands Shohei Ohtani, the game’s gravitational force, who has already launched 57 of his 109 Dodgers home runs within these same once-pitcher-friendly walls.
“I think that our team is a big part of hitting them,” said Dodgers manager Dave Roberts when told that the most home runs launched in baseball since 2020 have been at Dodger Stadium. “We play 81 games at home. So offensively, we’ve done a good job of hitting homers in our ballpark. And when you get Shohei (Ohtani) it skews that number a little bit, too.”
Coors Field, home of the Rockies, tied for sixth. Getty ImagesGreat American Ball Park in Cincinnati came in second, 20 long balls behind Blue Heaven on Earth. Getty Images
But Roberts also pointed to something that isn’t talked about enough. The weather.
The marine layer still lingers, and the physics of flight for a baseball have remained the same.
But over the last decade, due in large part to climate change and global warming, the average temperature in Los Angeles from April to September has risen by 3 degrees Fahrenheit, with five of the warmest years in California history having occurred since 2020.
“I think there’s something to the air in the summertime,” Roberts said. “The air gets light, and the ball flies. But it is a surprising stat of all the ballparks in the big leagues Dodger Stadium leads the league in home runs.”
Yankee Stadium is third on the list. Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
It is surprising that Chavez Ravine was once known as a park that punished imperfection and now it rewards precision — and modern hitters are nothing if not precise.
Even Angel Stadium, another venue long held hostage by dense coastal air, ranks fourth with 1,150 home runs. The narrative that weather alone dictates offense is cracking, just like bats meeting 98 at the top of the zone.
Another surprising twist? Coors Field — baseball’s mile-high launching pad — didn’t even crack the top five, tying for sixth. Oracle Park, once feared for its cavernous dimensions, sits near the bottom. Meanwhile, Dodger Stadium — baseball’s old soul — has become its loudest amplifier.
The Dodgers have won three World Series since 2020, but Dodger Stadium didn’t change its identity overnight.
It got rewritten by the recent history of success.
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LAKELAND, FLORIDA - MARCH 12, 2026: Will Warren #98 of the New York Yankees throws a pitch during the sixth inning of a game against the Detroit Tigers at Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium on March 12, 2026 in Lakeland, Florida. The Yankees beat the Tigers, 4-3. (Photo by Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across Major League Baseball. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Yankees fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.
Going into 2026, the Yankees have quite a number of interesting rotation options at their disposal. Some of those — the likes of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, and Clarke Schmidt — will miss some time to start the season, but are expected back at some point. In the meantime, the team will be relying on Max Fried at the top of the rotation, and hoping that Cam Schlittler is as good as his tantalizing rookie season made him look.
There are also another couple young players who, at least to start the year, will be tasked with rounding out the rotation. Two of them we’ve seen plenty of in recent years: Will Warren and 2024 AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil. Another is Ryan Weathers, who the Yankees picked up in a trade with the Marlins this offseason. With those three hoping to impress and get a longer run in the rotation, even when the Yankees start to get some guys back from injury, we wanted to know which of them you think will have the best 2026.
As you can see, Warren was the runaway winner in the voting. That’s understandable, as we have seen several flashes of being a good pitcher in his time in the majors. With a career 5.16 ERA and a 4.44 one last year — 92 ERA+, for reference — he hasn’t been able to find consistency at the big league level. However even when he has struggled, signs like his strikeout numbers point to there being something there.
Of the three, Gil has probably shown the most at the big league level, having won the AL ROTY, as mentioned. While he dealt with injuries of his own last season, keeping him out a while, he didn’t totally replicate that in 2025. His ERA was actually better than 2024, but some of his peripherals were worse, as he continued to struggle with control and walking batters. He’s also a bit older than a ROTY win might suggest, as he’ll be 28 in June.
Weathers is quite low on this post, probably because he has really struggled in spring training. Of course, you can’t always just copy and paste spring numbers into the regular season, as players use this time of year to work on stuff, trying things they might not in a regular season game. However, there’s only so much you can write off from a 8.68 ERA in 9.1 innings. His spring debut was very impressive, and he’s struck out a ton of batters, but it’s easy to understand why people are skeptical at this stage, when we’ve mostly only seen him struggle in a Yankees’ uniform.
Whether you voted in the poll or not, who of those three do you think will have the best 2026 and why?
PORT ST. LUCIE, FL - MARCH 10: Jorge Polanco #11 of the New York Mets runs onto the field prior to the game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the New York Mets at Clover Park on Tuesday, March 10, 2026 in Port St. Lucie, Florida. (Photo by Phebe Grosser/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
When the Mets signed Jorge Polanco to a two-year, $40 million contract to be their first baseman just days after Pete Alonso got five years from the Baltimore Orioles, it was, to put it lightly, a surprise. Polanco has been a good offensive player for a number of years, with a standout 2025 for the Seattle Mariners. However, he had never played more than an inning of first base professionally and, entering his age 33 season, isn’t exactly at the stage of his career where a positional change this extreme is likely.
Now, let’s get both extremes out of the way. Polanco was a not-great middle infielder for most of his career, but based on all available data, playing second base or shortstop is much higher on the defensive difficulty spectrum than playing first is. He is downshifting positional difficulty, which is the better approach for someone learning the position during spring training. So this isn’t like asking Juan Soto to learn shortstop.
But playing first isn’t, as Brad Pitt as Billy Beane once said, “not that hard.” First base is a very different position than any of the other infield positions because of the footwork, the stretching, and the picking, all of which don’t really resemble play at the other positions. While, yes, the worst defenders on the field usually play first, they usually know how to play first base. So this isn’t as simple as just giving Polanco a new glove and suddenly getting Lou Gherig out there. Plus, he’s going to be catching throws from a brand new third baseman in Bo Bichette, which adds to the difficulty.
The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle of that spectrum, and while Polanco has played a few games at first this spring, it isn’t as if his performance has sparked gobsmacked reactions on either extreme. This is likely going to be an open question until Polanco shows one way or the other what his first base defense looks like.
That is only half of Polanco’s game and, frankly, the half that could change at the drop of a hat. If the first twenty games are an unmitigated disaster, Polanco could wind up the (close to) full-time designated hitter and put this question of first base behind us. So let’s look at who Polanco the hitter is.
Actually, that is harder to do than you may think.
Polanco battled a lot of leg injuries, has an 80-game suspension for performance enhancing drugs on his record, and has had a lot of ups and downs in his MLB career. Using Baseball Reference’s 162 game average, Polanco has been a .263/.330/.442 hitter with 23 home runs, good for a 112 OPS+. While those aren’t exactly Pete Alonso numbers, given the mix of players the Mets brought in this season, that’s probably a passable performance.
But those career numbers are not really who 2026 Polanco is. After a disastrous 2024 season, Polanco remade his swing and came out a very different hitter. Our Lukas Vlahos discussed this while grading his signing:
Under the hood, there are clear changes supporting the offensive jump. Polanco increased his bat speed by more than a full mile per hour and nearly doubled his fast swing rate without lengthening his swing at all. He also flattened his attack angle, a change that did result in more ground balls but which also improved the quality of his pulled air contact. All of this drove significant improvements to Polanco’s Z-contact and exit velocity metrics without harming his approach significantly or batted ball distribution in a meaningful way…Polanco had a 92nd percentile ISO and a 13th percentile strikeout rate…Among players with 100 PA last year, Ketel Marte is the only batter better than Polanco in both of these metrics. Jose Ramirez is the only other player somewhat close. That’s impressive company no matter how you slice it.
If the Mets believe that the changes he made are real and sustainable, then let’s use his 2025 as a more accurate comparison for this season: .265/.326/.495 with 26 home runs. That’s a 134 OPS+, which is much more palatable for a first baseman. For context, Alonso’s OPS+ was 144 in 2025.
I use Alonso purposely, as that is who Polanco is going to be compared to for his entire Mets tenure. I don’t think anyone, from David Stearns to Polanco, expects Polanco to put up Alonso’s power numbers in 2026. Alonso is, at this moment, one of the elite power hitters in the game, and over the course of Polanco’s two-year deal, he will likely always be the inferior power hitter to Alonso.
But signing to Polanco for two years is very different than signing Alonso for five. Polanco at first is a roll of the dice, but Alonso at first is a known quantity. And what’s known more than many of us want to believe is that Alonso is declining defensively, and doing so at a fairly steep rate. It is understandable to want Alonso, who you know what to expect from, versus Polanco, a total unknown at first base. But even if Polanco is a disaster at first base and at the plate, he’s a more affordable and short term disaster than Alonso may wind up being.
But if Polanco can be a passable first baseman – a big if – and he can keep his changes from 2025 going – another big if – the overall performance between the two may be closer than we think.
Of course, that doesn’t erase the many fantastic memories we have of Alonso as a Met, nor does it lessen the sting of his departure for those that wanted to root for him in blue and orange for the rest of his career. But what it may do is help the team win baseball games. And that is why we are all here, isn’t it?
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