FIVE AND TWO: The Cubs are 5-2 in their last seven games. This is their first 5-2 span of the season that did not include any games during their two 10-game winning streaks. They were 5-2 through the first four wins of the first streak, beginning with the sixth win of that streak, and beginning with the sixth win of the second streak. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
STARTING OFF RIGHT: The Cubs have won the first game of their last two series, after having lost the opener of the previous seven. They won the last two series after having lost the previous seven. They are 7-3 in winning series after winning first games; 3-10-1 after losing first games. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
AFTER AN OFF DAY: The Cubs are 4-5 in games after a day off but have lost their last three, two at home. They are 3-3 in all games at home following a day of rest. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
CAMPAIGNING FOR PLAYER OF THE MONTH: Pete Crow-Armstrong, 16 games in June: .406/.435/.906 (26-for-64) with four doubles, two triples, eight home runs, 11 RBI, 12 runs scored and four stolen bases.
I wouldn’t say Ben Brown has been the savior of the Cubs starting rotation but… yeah, he pretty much has been. Since he joined the rotation May 8, he has a 1.49 ERA, 0.936 WHIP, 2.13 FIP and still no home runs allowed this season after he gave up one to the first batter he faced in 2026 (Jacob Young of the Nationals), now 243 batters. In seven starts he’s allowed only one hit in three of them.
Good stuff, Ben. He threw four innings of one-run relief against the Jays last year, Aug. 12, 2025 in Toronto, his only career outing against them.
Kevin Gausman has been an underrated, consistent starter in MLB for over a decade. This year at age 35, he’s having another good year, and in his last start, June 13 vs. the Yankees, he allowed one hit over seven innings.
Gausman threw seven innings against the Cubs Aug. 13, 2025 in Toronto and allowed two runs — both on solo homers, one by Michael Busch, the other by Matt Shaw.
This will not be an easy afternoon for Cubs hitters.
Please visit our SB Nation Blue Jays site Bluebird Banter. If you do go there to interact with Jays fans, please be respectful, abide by their individual site rules and serve as a good representation of Cub fans in general and BCB in particular.
The 2026 game discussion procedure has been changed, so please take note.
You’ll find the game preview, like this one, posted separately on the front page two hours before game time (90 minutes for some early day games following night games).
At the same time, a StoryStream containing the preview will also post on the front page, titled “Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of week/date) game threads.” It will contain every post related to that particular game.
The Live! (formerly “First Pitch”) thread will still post at five minutes to game time. It will also post to the front page. That will be the only live game discussion thread. After the game, the recap and Heroes and Goats will also live on the front page as separate posts.
You will also be able to find the preview, Live! thread, recap and Heroes and Goats in this section link. The StoryStream for each game can also be found in that section.
SURPRISE, ARIZONA - MARCH 20, 2026: Kendry Chourio #33 of the Kansas City Royals throws a pitch during the fifth inning of a spring training Spring Breakout game against the Texas Rangers at Surprise Stadium on March 20, 2026 in Surprise, Arizona. (Photo by David Durochik/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year, we ask questions of the most plugged-in Kansas City Royals fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.
Earlier this week, we asked which kinds of players the Royals should target during the upcoming trade deadline.
Well, I’ll say this about the poll results. Only 1% of Royals fans were willing to wait/pessimistic enough to believe that the Royals should try to target players who may not be ready to contribute until the 2030s. And, honestly, I think they’re correct in that. This is still a team that not only has Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia but also Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone, who seem to have started coming into their own in the month of June after each slumped a bit through May.
That said, they were pretty evenly split on whether the Royals could compete next year or might need to wait until 2028/2029 when the top prospects in the low minors should be really establishing themselves as the new core of the team. 2027 got 25% of the vote, while 2028-2029 got 29%. That, of course, means the plurality voted that the Royals should just target the best talent available, regardless of when that talent might be able to contribute.
Given that we accept that the answer doesn’t include guys who would try to seriously contribute to the 2026 roster, I think we can accept that this represents a block of people who don’t know whether the team can compete next year, but think they should be able to compete sometime within the next three. If that’s the understanding, then yeah, it makes sense to not lock out any options in those three years by refusing someone who is ultra-talented but only in AA because it doesn’t fit the window, or vice versa with a guy knocking on the door of the big leagues now.
Of course, as guys continue to get hurt, there are a lot of questions about who the Royals might even be able to trade. Let’s all cross our fingers that people can get healthy in time to bring us back some fun prospects to dream about in August and September.
That is far from ideal going up against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who excel against lefties and project to have seven or eight batters hit from the right-side on Friday night.
The Diamondbacks rank fourth in OPS vs. left-handed pitching this season. Isolating matchups against Top-15 opponents in that category, Prielipp owns an 8.44 ERA and has allowed at least four earned runs in all four starts.
Michael Soroka should get all the run support he needs in this one.
Twins vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-115)
This total is half a run too low for me.
The Diamondbacks possess a highly productive offense against left-handed pitching, especially at home. They rank fifth in wOBA and third in ISO vs. lefties in Arizona.
When they inevitably chase Prielipp from the game, they will face an underwhelming bullpen that sits 28th in xFIP this season.
Minnesota also enters with a red-hot offense, slotting third in OPS vs. righties in June.
Play the Over to -125.
Todd Cordell's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 34-27, -0.65 units
Over/Under bets: 32-27-2, +1.69 units
Twins vs Diamondbacks weather
Temperatures could clear 100 in Arizona today. The heat creates a better envrionment for hitters and will help the ball carry.
Twins vs Diamondbacks odds
Moneyline: Minnesota +145 | Arizona -170
Run line: Minnesota +1.5 (-140) | Arizona -1.5 (+120)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Twins vs Diamondbacks trend
Minnesota has hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games (+10.50 units, 44% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Twins vs Diamondbacks and game info
Location
Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Date
Friday, June 19, 2026
First pitch
9:45 p.m. ET
TV
Apple TV
Twins starting pitcher
Connor Prielipp (2-4, 5.26 ERA)
Diamondbacks starting pitcher
Michael Soroka (8-3, 3.11 ERA)
Twins vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Jun 16, 2026; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees left fielder Cody Bellinger (35) reacts after hitting a two RBI single against the Chicago White Sox during the third inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Jones-Imagn Images | John Jones-Imagn Images
Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across Major League Baseball. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Yankees fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.
The New York Yankees’ offense has looked solid all year, and currently ranks second in MLB with a 115 wRC+. Cody Bellinger has been a big part of that success, and second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been able to overcome a rough start to his season and remains a key cog in the Bombers’ World Series dreams.
A few days ago, we asked you, the Yankees fan reading this piece, whether Bellinger and Chisholm have done enough to make the All-Star roster in the American League. The response was clear.
A whopping 98 percent of Yankees fans believe Bellinger should be in Philadelphia next month, playing the Midsummer Classic with the American League. And to be fair, the numbers don’t lie: he is definitely deserving of a spot on the team.
Only four outfielders in the Junior Circuit have a higher wRC+ than Bellinger’s 136: Byron Buxton (149), Aaron Judge (148), Randy Arozarena (139), and Mike Trout (139). Bellinger is also second in fWAR with 2.6, right behind Buxton’s 2.8. These stats tell you that Bellinger, who is slashing a cool .275/.369/.479 with 11 homers and eight stolen bases, is among the very best outfielders in the American League and can’t be left out of the party. The Yankees re-signed him to a five-year, $162.5 million deal primarily with the hope that he could help them win right away; he’s absolutely done that in the first half of 2026.
The first MLB All-Star voting update had Bellinger and Judge among the top five vote-getters in the AL outfield, so they would both be in position to at least advance to the more run-off-focused Phase 2 of the process. Regardless of whether or not he gets a starting spot, he’s likely in good shape to make his third career All-Star team—and first since his MVP-winning 2019—in some capacity. (It’d be a stunner if teammates Ben Rice and Cam Schlittler weren’t there with him, but their cases are clear-cut enough that we did not ask about them or Judge, who might also make it despite his injury).
Now, let’s examine Chisholm’s case.
Yankees fans aren’t so confident that Chisholm deserves to play in the Midsummer Classic. Roughly one-third of them think he should be an All-Star, and to be fair, it wouldn’t be right to proclaim a 102-wRC+ hitter an automatic entry.
Chisholm wasn’t himself in the first month of the year, with a 73 wRC+. Then, he turned things around in May with a 124 mark and has kept playing at a high level in June, with a 122 wRC+. He does have 10 homers and 20 stolen bases, though, and his defensive performance depends on which stat you prioritize: his -5 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) says he has been a disaster, yet his 5 Outs Above Average (OAA) think the world of him.
In other words, Chisholm has lacked consistency this year, and the majority of fans don’t think he is an All-Star at this juncture. That can still change, though, especially since the AL field as a whole at the keystone is, to be kind, underwhelming. Someone has to be the All-Star second baseman. It could still be Jazz.
In the MLB-wide survey, we asked you who will win the World Series. The results are not surprising:
A plurality of the public—roughly 39 percent—believe that the Los Angeles Dodgers will get the three-peat. As of Friday morning, they boast an MLB-best 48-27 record and a nine-game lead in the NL West. They still have plenty of offensive and pitching weapons, and they are run by the same people with the same successful philosophy. They have as good a chance as anyone in the league to win it all.
The Atlanta Braves checked in at second place in the survey, and the Yankees were third. They will need to shore up a shaky bullpen to reach those heights, though, not to mention getting Judge back healthy in time. The rebuilding White Sox actually being in the top five is definitely cool to see.
Toronto Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is turning a corner, and he profiles extremely well against Chicago Cubs starter Ben Brown to keep the bat warm, making Over 1.5 total bases at a +135 price an attractive play.
Read on for my Blue Jays vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks for this Friday, June 19 matchup.
Blue Jays vs Cubs predictions
Blue Jays vs Cubs best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+135)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. profiles extremely well against Ben Brown, who gives up hard contact and throws a mix of curveballs and sinkers to right-handed batters at an 81% rate.
Vladdy has crushed these pitch types all season, with a .392 AVG and a .468 SLG.
He’s starting to heat up, too, with hits in five of his last six games, including his first home run in 32 days yesterday, which could be the confidence-builder he needs to get back to his All-Star self.
Guerrero’s hard-hit rate against the curveball and sinker, averaging 58% since June 1 — up from his 47% season average — points to the potential for more extra-base hits in the future.
A Vladdy breakout is coming, and a favorable matchup against Brown makes this bet playable even at +120.
COVERS INTEL: Brown is a contact pitcher who owns an 85.4% zone-contact rating, matching Guerrero’s 85.5% zone-contact rate, making this a favourable matchup for the Jays slugger, who ranks in the 94th percentile in xBA.
Blue Jays vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Guerrero Jr. owns just an 4.8% strikeout rate against Brown's principle pitch mix, and has gone Under this number in eight of his 13 June games.
Another Toronto Blue Jays batter who profiles well against the Chicago Cubs starter is Nathan Lukes, who owns a .340 AVG against Brown’s pitch mix, and has recorded 1+ hits in 19 of his last 22 games since returning from the IL.
Blue Jays vs Cubs SGP
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 strikeouts
Nathan Lukes Over 0.5 hits
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Blue Jays vs Cubs home run pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+675)
Brown has surrendered just one home run through 62 innings of work this season, so a quarter-unit wager is in order on this bet.
Brown has been hit hard, ranking in the 29th percentile with a 42.9% hard-hit rate in 2026.
Perhaps after a 32-day buffer between his last two home runs, Guerrero Jr. digs in and goes deep two games in a row. I’ll make a small wager on the breakout.
2026 Transparency record
Best bets: 35-37, +2.85 units
SGPs: 14-58, +4.15 units
HR picks: 11-61, -0.1 units
Blue Jays vs Cubs odds
Moneyline: Toronto -102 | Chicago -120
Run line: Toronto +1.5 | Chicago -1.5
Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7
Blue Jays vs Cubs trend
The Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in nine of their last 13 away games (+5.15 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Cubs.
How to watch Blue Jays vs Cubs and game info
Location
Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Date
Friday, 6-19-2026
First pitch
2:20 p.m. ET
TV
Peacock, SN
Blue Jays starting pitcher
Kevin Gausman (4-4, 3.41 ERA)
Cubs starting pitcher
Ben Brown (3-2, 1.74 ERA)
Blue Jays vs Cubs latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Cubs weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - JUNE 18: Adley Rutschman #35 of the Baltimore Orioles reacts after being hit in the head during the ninth inning against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on June 18, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Jack Compton/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Orioles fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.
The Orioles remain tantalizingly close in the AL Wild Card race despite multiple games per week where they look like they should be headed for more like 100 losses. They have been good enough just often enough to stay in it, even though there are many days where it does not feel this way.
There are another 30 or so games to be played before the trade deadline. The Orioles roughly 20-13 to be above .500 by the time the deadline arrives. They will probably seem to still be in the race and make the case to be buyers (or at least not sellers) as long as they can manage at least 17-16 between now and then.
The big question is: Can they do that? I surveyed Orioles fans this week to see where people think this will all shake out. These were the results:
As I said when I posted this survey, I was fairly sure more people would say sellers than not, and really I was just curious about the percentage. That’s roughly two-thirds thinking the team is headed for selling, whatever that might look like. That’s a strong majority.
It’s not hard to understand why. We get reminded of why regularly and are in the middle of one of those stretches right now, with the team having lost four of five games while scoring a combined 11 runs in those games. They’ve wasted pretty good starts from Trevor Rogers, Brandon Young, and Shane Baz in this little stretch. The Orioles are going to have to find a higher gear that we haven’t seen them have for nearly two full years now. It’s a bummer. Hopefully they surprise us like roughly one-third of you think that they will.
Jun 18, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Mets left fielder Juan Soto (22) celebrates win against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images | Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
Your 2026 New York Mets: It Sucks
“It sucks. It felt like you let the team down. The team has been playing really well the last couple of weeks, too. Definitely a blow to me; it sucks.” -Tobias Myers [New York Post]
Wow, the Knicks, that was awesome. Now to take a big sip of orange juice and see what the Mets have been up to since the NBA playoffs started in mid-April…
“My first time out there on a big-league mound in a little while, I just couldn’t gather it all together in that big inning.” -Kodai Senga [New York Post]
“I think command was my main issue overall — just not locating well, getting behind hitters. It’s tough to face major league hitters when you are behind most of the time. It’s something we have already kind of looked at a little bit. We’re going to dig deeper and get to work.” -Tobias Myers [New York Post]
You know things are going great when we’re got some canned ‘we’re banged up and need guys to step up’ quotes…
“Guys will continue to get opportunities and guys will need to step up. We have got a lot of guys in there that are more than capable, and we need those guys to step up, especially right now when we’re banged up.” -Carlos Mendoza [New York Post]
…as well as ‘we needed a win’ in the middle of June quote…
“I don’t know about satisfying, but it felt good. We needed to come out here and win a game.” -Bo Bichette [MLB]
…and a healthy mix of, I don’t know, but quotes where you start with some silver lining and pivot with a hard ‘BUT’ in the middle of your statement ala the Stephen A Smith Tweet…
“I have had some ups and downs so far, but it feels great [regarding his personal season numbers]. I definitely would love to be in a different spot as a team, but I want to help as much as I can to bring them back up.” -Juan Soto [New York Post]
/Stephen A Smith voice/BUT!
“Throughout the year when we get the quality [starting pitching], those guys are going to give us a chance: the offense and the bullpen but we need to be better. We need more from them. We expect more from them and they know that.” -Carlos Mendoza [New York Post]
/Stephen A Smith voice/BUT!
“The first three batters of the game, not ideal what you want to see right away. A couple of walks and then the three-run homer … [Senga] found his sweeper and the slider, but they got him early on there.” -Carlos Mendoza [New York Post]
This quote doesn’t quite fit the ‘Stephen A Smith BUT’ model BUT; Mendoza is starting to really read to me as getting to the Jerry Manuel level of providing quotes that are fodder for a pre-written narrative for the beat reporters as like a nice treat so they’ll be nice to him and help his job security (not saying he shouldn’t do that).
Cool man, it’s really insightful to acknowledge Juan Soto is a ‘really good player’ but he’s not trying to do too much.
“This is a guy that is more than capable of carrying a team, but he’s not trying to do too much. He’s going to continue to take his walks, he’s going to hit the ball hard, he’s a really good player.” -Carlos Mendoza [New York Post]
Along those lines, totally could be true, but I still don’t quite know who is continuing to push the beat writer’s narrative that Soto and Lindor don’t like each other; is it one of them, or their PR team, or someone within the Mets, or just the writers needing easy articles to write
“[Lindor’s] defense and his bat, he’s elite. He’s one of the best defensive players in the game and I think he’s going to help a lot.” -Juan Soto [New York Post]
Nolan McLean continues to remind me of R.A. Dickey and Jacob deGrom as being must watch starts on a dismal team
“Man, that was excellent. [Nolan McLean] dominated that lineup.” -Carlos Mendoza [MLB]
“Awesome. He was attacking with every pitch, and obviously, he’s got what, five-plus pitches? When he’s doing that, he’s pretty good.” -Bo Bichette [MLB]
“I wouldn’t say I put any more pressure or responsibility on myself. Every time I go out there, I’m trying to win a baseball game. I think if everybody’s trying to do that and we’re all pulling the same rope, good things will happen.” -Nolan McLean [MLB]
From your lips to Dickey’s ears
“I think that’s contagious, too. Hopefully, what Nolan did today, now we got Sean [Manaea] tomorrow and Freddy and some of the other guys, we need them to step up. They’re more than capable. So, trust those guys. They’re going to go on a run here.” -Carlos Mendoza [MLB]
あなたのその言葉が神様に届きますように
“As long as I can prepare the way I should prepare between outings, I should be able to be effective.” -Kodai Senga [New York Post]
This week in the Rangers Reacts survey, we asked which Texas Rangers player was most deserving of an All Star berth.
The voting was fairly close at the top:
Jacob Latz, who is tied for 6th in the American League in saves and is sporting a 1.62 ERA and a 1.5 bWAR, received a plurality of the vote, at 40%. Latz was just a little ahead of Josh Jung, who has been one of the few bright spots offensively for the Rangers this season, slashing .301/.358/.451 with a 1.5 bWAR. Jung received 32% of the vote.
Ezequiel Duran, who is second in the All Star balloting for second base, received 17% of the vote. He’s played all over the field this year while slashing .278/.331/.435, and has a 1.6 bWAR.
Jacob deGrom, last year’s lone representative, is currently leading the Rangers in bWAR, at 1.7. He received 9% of the vote.
New addition Brandon Nimmo, slashing .256/.327/.404 with a 1.3 bWAR on the year, got just 1% of the vote.
In the national vote, folks were asked who should be blamed if there’s a lock out.
The fact that 42% of respondents would blame the players for a lockout — not a strike, but a lockout, a work stoppage that is the result of owners refusing to let operations and games happen rather than players refusing to play — illustrates how well owners have manipulated public opinion.
39% of folks think the Dodgers will win the World Series. Kinda surprised it is that low.
The Milwaukee Brewers (45-27) take on the Atlanta Braves (46-27) in the first game of a three-game series between divisional leaders with almost identical records. Milwaukee is favored with a -186 moneyline compared to Atlanta's +154. Starting pitchers are scheduled to be Jacob Misiorowski for Milwaukee, with a 1.34 ERA, and Martín Pérez for Atlanta, with a 2.90 ERA.
Alvarez not only carries an elite rating against Bibee but also owns 100% arsenal coverage across the entire pitch mix, per Batters-Box. Not to mention, when having an elite rating, he leaves the yard nearly 22% of the time.
Bibee has been horrible against left-handed bats this season. As of late, over the last 60 lefties faced, he is allowing 45.2% hard contact, a 21.4% barrel rate, while hitters are elevating the ball 64.2% of the time. Those hitters have produced a .460 xBA, .944 xSLG, and .461 xwOBA during that stretch.
The Astros slugger's most recent numbers only pile on to the reasoning. In his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he owns a .444 batting average, .852 slugging percentage, and a 1.352 OPS, while producing nearly 60% hard contact and a 27.3% barrel rate.
The Rays starter brings a poorly rated matchup ISO, hard contact, and strikeout percentage into today's matchup. He has been allowing plenty of hard contact and high-quality contact. At home against left-handed hitters, opponents are lifting the ball nearly 71% of the time.
Over his last 60 lefties faced, they are producing a 9.8% barrel rate while elevating the baseball 61% of the time. Those hitters also hold a .409 xBA, .591 xSLG, and .363 xwOBA.
Wood is having a career year, and the recent underlying numbers are borderline diabolical. Over his last 30 at-bats versus right-handed pitching, he is posting a .360 batting average, .680 slugging, and 1.113 OPS, with a 50% hard hit rate and 11.1% barrel rate.
For an extra safety blanket, do not be afraid to sprinkle the double on all of these guys, too. A missed home run is likely a double.
Time: 7:10p.m. ET
Where to watch: RAYS, NATS
Colby Marchio's 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 60-200-15, +20.20 units
Today’s HR parlay
Eric Burleson
Bet Now +8087
Yordan Alvarez
James Wood
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
We are starting a new series here in the lab. Before we really get started I should run through the customary disclaimers and legalese. I am not advocating making any additions at the trade deadline. In fact, if you have been reading my work regularly you know I’ve argued for the exact opposite. However, when you are in school they teach you how to be a successful debater. A successful debater and persuasive writer can argue both sides of the argument.
If you ignore what the Astros record is and if you only look at where they sit in the standings then you would have to believe they are in the hunt for a playoff berth. They sit four games behind the Mariners for the division lead and are in a similar position in the wild card chase. To be sure, there are plenty of teams in between them on both counts, but they are in striking distance and have played better baseball in May and June.
You could also point out that they were decimated by injuries early in the season and most of those important pieces are back into the fold. You can also look at the likes of Colton Gordon, Hayden Wesneski, and Ronel Blanco coming off long term injuries in July or August. So, make no mistake. I am not arguing for any of these scenarios. However, the premise is that the Astros are financially and organizationally able to make one significant addition this season. They only sit below the tax threshold by a few million and their minor league system is fairly bare.
So, what we are doing in this series is making the case for one area of the ball club to add to, We will continue this into next week because there are definitely multiple holes to fill. The question for us and for the Astros is which hole is the most significant? Today, we start with the starting rotation. We could really get bogged down in the numbers, but we will look at ERA and three popular ERA estimators in xERA, fielding independent pitching (FIP), and xFIP. The x is based on Statcast’s estimates of what it would be based on the quality of contact. First, let’s start with the Astros starters. We will include Lance McCullers Jr. and Cristian Javier because they could theoretically come back.
ERA
xERA
FIP
xFIP
Hunter Brown
1.10
2.17
1.81
2.63
Spencer Arrighetti
2.57
4.53
3.51
4.73
Peter Lambert
3.23
3.51
3.81
4.48
Mike Burrows
5.86
4.61
5.69
4.68
Tatsuya Imai
6.43
4.89
5.24
4.57
Kai-Wai Teng
4.31
4.41
4.88
4.10
Lance McCullers Jr
6.86
4.49
5.06
4.14
Cristian Javier
12.54
7.31
8.56
8.17
On a long enough timeline, the survival rate drops to zero. I have mentioned “magical thinking” before. How we look at Spencer Arrighetti is a perfect example. He could be a guy that got hot at the right time when this team was desperate for any port in a storm. That has tremendous value, but his recent outings show he is probably not THAT pitcher over the long-term. The expected ERA numbers show the lag there. Eventually, the expected numbers and actual numbers will intersect.
The magical thinking comes in when fans and analysts point out that guys like Burrows and Imai look like they will bouce back, but just assume that guys like Arrighetti and Teng will keep on trucking. We are seeing that both Arrighetti and Teng have reached the end of their hot streaks and are beginning to regress to the mean. There’s a couple of things they can do without making a trade to improve their lot in life, but the bottom line is that Peter Lambert is the second best starter on this team and we have to ask ourselves if that looks like a competitive rotation.
The first thing they can do is make sure McCullers and Javier get nowhere near a major league mound. McCullers’ numbers are actually somewhat promising in that the predicted ERAs are better than his actual ERA, but they still aren’t the stuff that makes up a playoff rotation. Javier probably shouldn’t be a starter in any rotation. He probably has one more rehab outing before they need to make some major decisions. Putting him back in the rotation is likely a firable offense.
The second thing that they should strongly consider is transferring Teng back to the bullpen. He has a 5.77 ERA in eight starts, but a 1.80 ERA in 13 relief appearances. Dana Brown robbed him from San Francisco largely because he had similar blowups when they used him as a starter. Give him a pat on the back and thank him for stabilizing the ship when it was threatening to capsize. Still, this team needs to use guys in their best roles. Even if you make these two moves you have a rotation of Brown, Lambert, Arrighetti, Imai, and Burrows.
If we look at the baseball landscape, there are three starting pitchers that are widely considered as available, are in the last year of their contract, and would fit underneath the tax threshold. There is obviously a couple more that would surpass that. At this point, I am just introducing possibilities and not advocating individually for any of them.
I should note that Alcantara leads the National League in innings pitched. He is on pace to eclipse 200 innings and I don’t have to tell anyone how rare that is. If this move is made in July when more than half of the season is complete then his salary fits underneath the tax threshold. Essentially, this becomes similar to picking up Yusei Kikuchi and given his free agent status it probably ends up costing a similar price.
The good news is that Ryan is actually cheaper financially than Alcantara. The bad news is that he would be considerably more expensive in terms of prospect capital. I am almost certain that an Xavier Nayens or Kevin Alvarez would be involved in such a deal and that is a horrible price for a rental. He is a grade above a Kikuchi, so he would be really nice in a playoff series, but absolutely cost prohibitive in the winter.
Holy regression Batman! That statcast ERA looks awful. Most of it tied to a very low strikeout rate. However, when you consider his home environment, these numbers don’t look half bad. He was 10-10 with a 4.64 ERA the previous season in Baltimore. He projects as an end of the rotation arm. The Astros seem to have plenty of those. The question is if the pitching lab sees something they think they can unlock.
Putting it all together
Ryan and Alcantara look like upgrades over what you currently have. There are a number of wild cards to consider here. For one, we don’t know which teams may suddenly want to sell in late July. The American League in particular is pretty muddy as we sit here in June. Secondly, we don’t know if Jim Crane is willing to go over the threshold for anyone. There are also creative deals where money could go the other way to offset an expensive pitcher. These are all possibilities. However, given these three options, is anything particularly exciting you as an Astros fan?
DETROIT, MICHIGAN - MAY 18: Slade Cecconi #44 of the Cleveland Guardians celebrates after picking off Riley Greene (not in the image) #31 of the Detroit Tigers during the bottom of the fourth inning at Comerica Park on May 18, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It’s time to get annoyed with the Astros’ short left-field porch.
The Guardians are 40-35 with a -7 run differential, 23rd in wRC+ with 93, 10th in baserunning runs above average at 2.2, 10th in Defense at -6.4, eighth in starting pitching ERA at 3.86 (4.17 FIP), and 11th in bullpen ERA at 3.66 (3.66 FIP).
The Astros are 35-41 with a -41 run differential, 12th in MLB with a 103 wRC+, 22nd in baserunning runs above average at -2.4, 16th in Defense at -10.1, 29th in starting pitcher ERA at 5.00 (4.83 FIP), and 25th in bullpen ERA at 4.72 (4.78 FIP).
You’re gonna need to score some runs to beat the Astros. You should be able to take advantage of a poor pitching staff to do it. Please do so, Guardians.
Matchups: Game One, Friday, 8:10PM ET, Tanner Bibee 3.96 ERA (4.69 FIP) vs. Tatsuya Imai, RHP 6.43 ERA (5.24 FIP) Game Two, Saturday, 7:15PM ET Joey Cantillo 4.38 ERA (4.76 FIP) vs. Spencer Arrighetti, RHP 2.57 ERA (3.81 FIP) Game Three, Sunday, 2:10PM ET Slade Cecconi 4.60 ERA (4.33 FIP) vs. Kai-Wei Teng, RHP 4.31 ERA (4.88 FIP)
It’s all about not letting Yordan Alvarez (190 wRC+) and Christian Walker (121 wRC+) – who kills Cleveland – beat you this series. The rest of the lineup is manageble. So, let’s get some hits with runners in scoring position and go take this series. DO NOT LET YORDAN BEAT YOU!!!
On this day 75 years ago, Bud Stewart played a key role in the upstart White Sox splitting a doubleheader in Yankee Stadium in front of 60,441. | (Photo by The Stanley Weston Archive/Getty Images)
1884 Ill-fated hurler and inventor of the knuckleball, Eddie Cicotte, was born, in Springwells, Mich. Cicotte made his MLB debut in 1905 and was up for good as a major-leaguer in 1908. Four years later, he was swapped to Chicago and saw his career take off. Cicotte’s 11.9 WAR to lead the greatest White Sox team in history in 1917 led all of baseball and stands in a tie for 36th-best all-time and second-best in White Sox annals.
While he couldn’t have known it then, Cicotte’s popularization of the knuckleball ushered in a tradition of knuckleballers on the South Side, from Hoyt Wilhelm to Eddie Fisher to Wilbur Wood and even briefly to Charlie Hough.
Of course, Cicotte consorted with gamblers and famously was a fixer of the 1919 Black Sox World Series. The righty was banned from baseball for 95 years, and despite Hall-worthy statistics has so far been kept out of Cooperstown.
1912 Don Gutteridge, at 109-172 the owner of the fifth-worst record among White Sox managers tenured for at least one full season, was born in Pittsburg, Kan. He played for 12 years in the majors as an infielder clearly valued for his knowledge of the game and ability to fill a role as opposed to his prowess between the lines (1.4 total WAR over 1,151 games).
Gutteridge had bad fortune on the South Side as skipper in at least three ways:
He wasn’t White Sox manager by choice, returning to the White Sox organization only after the surprising return of Al Lopez as manager in 1968 and being forced into the job after Lopez resigned in 1969
By taking over as an interim manager 17 games into the season, he was neither prepared to manage in the majors nor establish himself as the leader of the club
The late-1960s White Sox were severely lacking in talent (over four seasons as a manager in the organization’s minors, his clubs finished with a winning record every year
Gutteridge was nonetheless as associated with the record 17 straight winning seasons the White Sox ran off in the 1950s and 1960s, on the MLB coaching staff (mostly as first-base coach) from 1955-66.
After retiring from baseball, Gutteridge returned to Pittsburg, which honored him ever June 19 with “Don Gutteridge Day”. He died there in 2008, at 96, and at that time he was one of the 10 oldest living major league baseball players, the oldest living former manager or coach, the last surviving member of the St. Louis Cardinals “Gas House Gang,” and the last living member of the St. Louis Browns to appear in a World Series.
1926 The Sox celebrated Eddie Collins Day at Comiskey Park. Collinswould be admitted into the Hall of Fame in 1939 and was one of the finest second baseman in major league history. He played 12 seasons with the White Sox and is the only member of the 3,000-hit club to get that milestone safety in a White Sox uniform.
1941 Joe DiMaggio went 3-for-3 with a home run in a 7-2 loss to New York at Yankee Stadium. It was the 32nd game of his eventual 56-game hitting streak, with the streak now the 14th-longest of all time, tied with Harry Heilmann of the Detroit Tigers.
DiMaggio had started his hit streak about a month earlier, on May 15, against the Eddie Smith and the White Sox. At this point, eight of the 32 games Joltin’ Joe had hit safely in had come against the South Siders. In a month, DiMaggio would hit safely in games 52-55 of the streak in Chicago, before seeing it snapped two games after leaving town, vs. Cleveland.
All told, six White Sox pitchers were victimized by DiMaggio’s streak, with Smithand Thornton Lee both getting touched over three games, for four total hits. Johnny Rigney also extended DiMaggio’s streak by three games, and three hits in total.
1951 The White Sox split a doubleheader at Yankee Stadium in front of 60,441 fans (ranking among the Top 20-attended games in White Sox history), maintaining their 3 1⁄2-game lead in the American League.
The Sox dropped the opener, 11-9, despite rallying to tie after falling behind, 5-0, in the first inning. In the nightcap, the White Sox took a 4-3 lead on Bud Stewart’s three-run homer in the eighth, and after the Yankees fought back for one, tallied the eventual game-winner on Bob Dillinger’s double in the ninth.
The White Sox would fall out of first for good in July and finish the season in fourth place, 17 games back. But their 81-73-1 record represented their first winning season in eight years — and more importantly, kicked off a string of 17 straight winning seasons on the South Side.
1977 Wilbur Wood threw his last good game for the White Sox in throwing eight innings of one-run ball in beating the A’s, 2-1, in the first game of a doubleheader at Comiskey Park. But the real star that afternoon was first baseman Lamar Johnson, who did everything in this contest. Johnson’s three hits (and two home runs) were the only Sox hits in the opener. He also sang the National Anthem beforehand!
The Sox also won the nightcap 5-1, with Lamar adding a hit and scoring a run.
2009 Levi Maxwell of the White Sox High-A affiliate Winston-Salem Dash threw a seven-inning no-hitter in a doubleheader opener against the Wilmington Blue Rocks. It was the first no-hitter in the Carolina League in three years, and the first for the Dash since 2001. Maxwell ended up as the Carolina League Pitcher of the Week for his achievement.
However, it was a bright spot in an otherwise rough season. Maxwell finished 2009 at 4-15 (4.54 ERA) after going 15-5 a year earlier for the Low-A Kannapolis Intimidators. In true Joe Cowley fashion, Maxwell retired (or was released) at season’s end.
(The manager of that Intimidators club in 2009? None other than future White Sox third base coach Joe McEwing.)
2015 In a game against the Texas Rangers at U.S. Cellular Field, Chris Sale recorded his fifth consecutive game with at least 12 strikeouts, as he fanned 14 Texas hitters. That tied him with Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson as the only pitchers in baseball history to accomplish that. Sale’s streak began on May 28, and in those five starts he struck out a total of 65 hitters.
He got a no-decision in this game, though, as Texas scored two runs in the ninth inning with two outs and stole a 2-1 win.
If you were to make a list of the most important baseball players, Lou Gehrig would rank quite high on the list. For one, he would also rank quite highly on the best players of all time list, but his importance goes beyond that. His famous iron man streak, its end, and Gehrig’s subsequent battle with ALS takes him to a level of recognition that goes past him being a Hall of Fame player. While it’s becoming less common as the disease has gained more and more notoriety over the years, but it’s not entirely uncommon to hear ALS referred to as “Lou Gehrig’s Disease.”
Today happens to be the “Iron Horse’s” birthday, so in his honor let’s take a look back at the legendary player, who means so much more than what he did on the field.
Henry Louis “Lou” Gehrig Born: June 19, 1903 (New York, NY) Died: June 2, 1941 (New York, NY) Yankees Tenure: 1923-39
Gehrig was born in 1903 in the place in which he would become famous: New York City. His parents, Heinrich and Christina, were German immigrants who had three other children, but none outside of Lou lived past toddlerhood. Gehrig grew up speaking German at home, and even later formed a bond with Babe Ruth — also of German ancestry — by speaking to each other in the language. While he was growing up, Christina Gehrig was mostly the main breadwinner of the family, working as a maid, as Heinrich often struggled with alcoholism and epilepsy. Lou would often help his mother with her work and the two had a very close bond, with him calling her his “best pal.”
As you might expect as the child of immigrant parents from a place where baseball isn’t much of a thing, Gehrig’s parents weren’t initially thrilled with Lou’s love of baseball, which he formed at an early age. However, it quickly became clear that Gehrig was very, very good at the game. After his high school won the New York City championship, they were invited to take on the Chicago champions at the stadium now known as Wrigley Field. During the game, Gehrig hit a grand slam clear out of the stadium, which would’ve been an impressive feat for a major leaguer, never mind a high schooler.
Despite his baseball skill, Gehrig’s parents still hoped for him to get into business or another field, so he enrolled at Columbia University, where his mother worked at a fraternity house. He still had an eye on athletics, though, as he also played on the college’s baseball and football teams. In one 1923 game, Gehrig struck out 17 Williams College batters as a pitcher. That caught people’s eye, including that of legendary Yankee scout Paul Krichell.
After attending further games, Krichell came away even more impressed by Gehrig’s hitting and excitedly told Yankees GM Ed Barrow that he had found the “next Babe Ruth.” Despite his parent’s earlier reluctance, the money offered by the Yankees proved to be too much to not accept and he signed with the team on April 30, 1923.
In his first two years after signing with the Yankees, Gehrig played just 23 games combined across 1923 and ‘24. Despite that, he showed plenty of potential in his sparse chances, putting up a 209 OPS+ in 42 plate appearances. He also spent some time in the minors with the Hartford Senators, where he also opened eyes with 61 homers in 193 games. His talent was evident, and he was subject of poaching attempts. In 1924, Rochester of the International League tried to get him when the Yankees acquired Fred Merkle of “Merkle’s Boner” fame. However, his shot was on the horizon, and he took it by both hands.
In a moment that now lives in fame, Gehrig was given the start at first base on June 2, 1925. That day, Wally Pipp, a star of the 1923 World Series champions and a Yankee great in his own right, was given the day off. The legend is that he came that day with a headache and Huggins told him to just take the day off and rest. There’s also a line of thinking that, as the Yankees were struggling a bit in ‘25, Huggins decided to just get a look at a still-young Gehrig. Whatever the reason, the only people that day it didn’t work out for were Pipp and the rest of the league. Gehrig went 3-for-5 with a double on June 2nd. He wouldn’t leave the Yankees’ lineup again until 1939.
Huggins stuck with Gehrig for the rest of 1925, and the youngster repaid that faith with a very good season. The Yankees sold Pipp to the Reds the following offseason, confirming that the first base job was Gehrig’s. Gehrig improved in 1926, and then improved even more in 1927, as part of the dominant “Murderers’ Row” team. The 1927 championship was Gehrig’s second as he had been around for ‘23, but it was the first in which he was a regular, and would be the second of his seven in total.
From 1926-38, Gehrig was probably the second best player in all of baseball, behind only his teammate, Babe Ruth. Over the course of those 13 seasons in particular, he hit .343/.452/.640, with 472 home runs, 1913 RBI (cracking the 100+ mark every year), with a 182 OPS+ and 110.1 rWAR. In addition to 1927, the Yankees went on to win titles in 1928, 1932, 1936, 1937, and 1938. With the exception of the final one when he would’ve been in the early stages of his battle with ALS, Gehrig would’ve been the running for Series MVP had the award existed at the time.
The feats just kept on coming for Larrupin’ Lou. On June 3, 1932, he accomplished something that not even Ruth did, swatting four homers in the same game against the Philadelphia Athletics at Shibe Park. He was just the third player to do and the first in American League history. No other Yankee has done it in the 84 years since then; in fact, it’s only been 18 other times by players on any team.
Also famously, he never took a day off. From taking over the first base job in 1925 until early 1939, Gehrig played every single day, for a streak totaling 2,130. It shattered the previous record of consecutive games played and would take another legend in Cal Ripken Jr. to come along and break it. The fact that all the wear and tear that would’ve come with that streak never really affected his stats is also insanely remarkable.
The final full year of that dominant stretch was 1938, when Gehrig first started to notice that something was off. His stats for that season still ended up at an excellent level for a normal player, but a bit below Gehrig’s usual. He didn’t seem to have quite the power that he once had, noting “I see the ball all right and take a proper cut and seem to connect like I want to, but somehow the ball doesn’t seem to take the proper zoom.”
While Gehrig spent the following winter trying to exercise and regain his strength, the opposite was happening. Upon reporting to spring training, he was struggling even worse than he had the prior year, and even collapsed in the clubhouse on a couple occasions. Upon the beginning of the 1939 campaign, Gehrig went just 4-for-28 at the plate, and looked noticeably slower in the field and running the bases. On May 2nd, he went to manager Joe McCarthy and asked for a day off, the first in over a decade.
As he continued to sit out, Gehrig kept traveling with the Yankees, but the rest wasn’t changing anything. That eventually led to him checking into the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota, still searching for some sort of answer. The one he got wasn’t good. Gehrig was diagnosed with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis — then a relatively unknown condition but an absolutely devastating one. A return to the baseball field was out of the question, and ALS would likely take his life within a matter of years.
After the revelation that he would have to retire, the Yankees announced a Lou Gehrig Appreciation Day would be held on July 4, 1939. The event brought many dignitaries and former teammates out, including Ruth, even though the two had gone through a falling-out in prior years.
The ceremonies were held in between games of a doubleheader that day. After numerous speeches, Gehrig himself was invited to the microphone. While you can probably recite the most famous line by heart, in its echo-y, crackly recorded form, Gehrig said so much more than that on that day, and all of it is worth reading:
For the past two weeks you have been reading about a bad break. Yet today I consider myself the luckiest man on the face of the earth. I have been in ballparks for seventeen years and have never received anything but kindness and encouragement from you fans.
When you look around, wouldn’t you consider it a privilege to associate yourself with such a fine looking men as they’re standing in uniform in this ballpark today? Sure, I’m lucky. Who wouldn’t consider it an honor to have known Jacob Ruppert? Also, the builder of baseball’s greatest empire, Ed Barrow? To have spent six years with that wonderful little fellow, Miller Huggins? Then to have spent the next nine years with that outstanding leader, that smart student of psychology, the best manager in baseball today, Joe McCarthy? Sure, I’m lucky.
When the New York Giants, a team you would give your right arm to beat, and vice versa, sends you a gift — that’s something. When everybody down to the groundskeepers and those boys in white coats remember you with trophies — that’s something. When you have a wonderful mother-in-law who takes sides with you in squabbles with her own daughter — that’s something. When you have a father and a mother who work all their lives so you can have an education and build your body — it’s a blessing. When you have a wife who has been a tower of strength and shown more courage than you dreamed existed — that’s the finest I know.
So I close in saying that I might have been given a bad break, but I’ve got an awful lot to live for. Thank you.
After the festivities of that day, Gehrig retired back to his Bronx home with his wife, Eleanor, who he had met in Chicago back during the 1932 World Series. Mayor Fiorello La Guardia appointed him to a term as a New York City Parole Commissioner, which he performed for the remainder of his life. Said life sadly only lasted a little while longer. On June 2, 1941, Gehrig passed away just a few weeks shy of his 38th birthday, an age at which plenty of players are still on the field.
Following his death, Eleanor Gehrig devoted the rest of her life to ALS research and never remarried. A regular to Yankees Old-Timers’ Day, she did everything she could to keep his memory alive until her own passing in 1984. She said of Lou, “I would not have traded two minutes of the joy and grief with that man for two decades of anything with another.”
Just as a player, Lou Gehrig is an unquestionable Yankees and baseball icon. However, he also means so much more than that in many ways.
See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.
In game one, Wuilfredo Antunez had a big game, going 2-for-5 with a triple and a double. Jose Devers went 2-for-3 with two walks, Conner Barstad went 2-for-4 with a walk, Luke Hill doubled and walked and Alfonsin Rosario walked three times.
Rosario, Hill and Devers also stole a base.
A rehabbing Eric Sobrowski allowed two unearned runs without allowing a hit, striking out two and walking one in 0.2 innings.
Dylan DeLucia allowed two runs on five hits in 5.0 innings with four strikeouts and a pair of walks.
In game two, Akron managed just five hits. Jacob Cozart went 2-for-4 with a double and Conner Barstad wetn 1-for-2 with a walk.
Starting pitcher Rafe Schlesinger allowed four runs on four hits with three walks and four strikeouts in 4.1 innings in his Double-A debut.
The bullpen was tremendous the rest of the way as Sean Matson, Reid Johnson and Adam Tulloch combined for 4.2 scoreless innings, but the offense couldn’t muster much.
Lake County Captains 4, Great Lakes Loons 5 Lake County Captains 3, Great Lakes Loons 2
Captains move to 37-27
Lake County scored four runs on three hits in game one with the big blow coming off the bat of recently-activated Welbyn Francisca, who blasted a three-run home run.
Bennett Thompson also went 1-for-2 with a walk.
Starting pitcher Braylon Doughty pitched decently, allowing four runs (three earned) on seven hits with seven strikeouts and no walks in 6.0 innings.
Cam Schuelke pitched 1.1 innings, allowing an unearned run in the bottom of the eighth inning to take the loss.
In game two, Lake County won despite just collecting two hits. Thankfully both hits were big ones. Jace LaViolette had a two-run double while Nolan Schubart blasted his 15th home run.
Starting pitcher Jervis Alfaro allowed one run on four hits with three strikeouts and a walk in 5.0 innings.
Hill City Howlers 3, Augusta GreenJackets 10
Howlers fall to 31-35
Hill City got taken out of this game early as Joey Oakie had a nightmare game, getting blistered for eight runs on three hits with seven walks and three strikeouts in just 1.2 innings.
Offensively, Dauri Fernandez tripled and scored a run.
COVERS INTEL:
Alec Burleson
Yordan Alvarez
James Wood
