
When the Orioles left Tropicana Field four days ago, there was an air of hope around them—the feeling that comes from taking three out of four in the house of the AL East leader. Fast forward four days and the Orioles have come back to earth after being swept in Baltimore by the New York Yankees.
This Orioles team has become the equivalent of baseball’s Sisyphus, doomed to get so close to the final AL Wild Card spot but always falling back. The three wins in Tampa had the O’s a half game ahead for that coveted third spot. After three straight losses to New York and four straight losses overall, the Orioles are buried under five other teams in their quest for an unlikely playoff berth. And yet, Baltimore is only two games back of a spot in the postseason, despite their recent losing streak.
In an improbable turn of events, the Rays have turned out to be a favorable opponent for the Orioles. Despite going 9-16 against the rest of the AL East, the O’s are 6-4 against Tampa Bay. The last time the Rays visited Baltimore, the Orioles won all three games, outscoring Tampa 26-10. Before last Sunday’s 7-6 loss, the O’s were on a six-game winning streak against the Rays.
As has been the case for much of the season (and especially in the post-Trade Deadline era), Pete Alonso will have to carry the Orioles offense if they want to take another series from the Rays. The Polar Bear has destroyed his hometown team, posting a triple slash of .415/.489/.683 with three homers and nine RBIs against the Orioles’ southern division rivals. Colton Cowser and Gunnar Henderson have also dominated the Rays this year, with each posting a .300+ average, a .900+ OPS and three long balls against Tampa.
Game 1, Friday August 21st, 7:15pm ET
Probable pitchers: LHP Trevor Rogers (8-8, 4.15 ERA, 108 Ks) vs. RHP Freddy Peralta (5-10, 5.27 ERA, 123 Ks)
Where to watch: Apple TV
We saw this matchup playout last Sunday in Tampa, when the O’s scored a resounding 10-2 victory thanks to an offensive explosion against the Rays bullpen. Rogers was his usual sharp self, delivering a line of 6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB and 6 Ks. It was reigning MVO’s eighth quality start since the beginnig of June, a stretch that has seen him put up 2.45 ERA and limit opponents to a .224 average. Rogers has been slightly worse in Camden Yards this season, posting a 4.31 ERA in Baltimore vs. a 3.95 ERA on the road.
Peralta was by no means bad last Sunday, setting down the first eight Orioles he faced and starting the game with four shutout innings. Everything started to fall apart for him and the Rays in the 5th, with Peralta walking two of the first three batters before being relieved by Garrett Cleavinger with two outs. Cleavinger allowed an RBI single to Jackson Holliday to tie the game at 1-1 before a Pete Alonso doubled to put Baltimore up 3-1. The Orioles then scored seven runs in the 6th to put the game out of reach.
And despite a less than stellar season overall, the Orioles have not been one for prolonged losing streaks. The recent skid is only the fourth four-game skid of the season. Baltimore has only lost five games in a row once this year, which means they should be in line for a Game 1 victory against Tampa.
Game 2, Saturday August 22nd, 7:05pm ET
Probable pitchers: RHP Brandon Young (9-3, 3.52 ERA, 96 Ks) vs. LHP Shane McClanahan (9-6, 3.25 ERA, 96 Ks)
Where to watch: MASN/MASN+
The Young vs. McClanahan matchup is another matchup we saw in Tropicana Field, with the two squaring off in the Monday game that the Rays won 7-6. Neither the Orioles’ breakout pitcher nor the Rays’ former All-Star were particularly sharp in the back-and-forth affair. McClanahan, in his first start off the IL, was limited to 3.1 innings, allowing 4 hits, 3 earned runs, 0 BB, 3 Ks and a Coby Mayo moon shot.
Young only last two outs longer than McClanahan, posting a final line of 4 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 1 BB and 3 Ks. It was BY’s shortest start since the middle of May and only the fourth time all season he’s allowed 4+ runs. It was the big Texan’s first time facing the Rays, so he’ll hope the rematch at home goes much better. Unlike Rogers, Young has actually been slightly better at home this year, holding a 3.39 ERA at Camden Yards vs. a 3.69 ERA away from Baltimore.
Game 3, Sunday August 23rd, 1:35pm ET
Probable pitchers: RHP Shane Baz (4-13, 4.02 ERA, 132 Ks) vs. RHP Nick Martinez (12-4, 3.05 ERA, 83 Ks)
Where to watch: MASN/MASN+
The fact that Shane Baz leads the majors with 13 losses is more a testament to his putrid lack of run support than his actual pitching performance. Among qualified starters, Baz has received the second least run support in all of baseball at 3.12 runs/game. Baltimore has lost six Baz starts in a row, despite the right-hander pitching to a 3.44 ERA over that stretch.
Being in front of the Baltimore faithful hasn’t made it any better. In his last five starts in Camden Yards, the 27-year-old has pitched to a 3.25 ERA while averaging 5.2 IP per start. However, in that same stretch the Orioles are only 1-4 and averaging 2.6 runs/game when Baz takes the mound in Baltimore.
All that being said, the former Ray has been particularly strong against the team that traded him. In two starts this year vs. Tampa Bay, Baz has a 1.38 ERA while limiting the Rays to a a .196 average. The last time he faced Tampa, the righty delivered his best start in Camden Yards all season, tossing 7 innings of 1-run ball while punching out 9 Rays.
On paper, it looks like run support would be hard to come by off Rays’ right-hander Nick Martinez. However, the sinker-baller has struggled of late, posting a 5.92 ERA and .303 BAA and six homers against in his last four starts. Martinez hasn’t made a start in Camden Yards since 2015 for the Rangers, when Jimmy Paredes and J.J Hardy each took him deep and his was outdueled by peak Wei-Yin Chen.
Can the Orioles turn it around against the Rays? Or will it be another disappointing series against an AL East rival? Let us know in the comments.













