Category: MLB

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The Freeway Series gets renewed as the Los Angeles Angels make the short trip to Chavez Ravine to face the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight, with the home side favored.

Reid Detmers and Roki Sasaki toe the rubber in the series opener, potentially creating some value on the underdog.

See why my Angels vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks for Friday, June 5, are enamored with Reid Detmers. 

Who will win Angels vs Dodgers tonight: Angels (+175)

Plug your nose if you have to, but the Los Angeles Angels are undervalued in this series opener. 

Reid Detmers gives them a starting pitching advantage. His 2.92 xERA, 20.8% K-BB%, and 104 Stuff+ are clear indicators of an effective arm. 

Roki Sasaki’s hittable heater (.328 xBA) and penchant for allowing loud contact (11th percentile barrel rate) are major concerns. 

The Angels’ bullpen will be fully rested after Thursday’s day off, whereas the Los Angeles Dodgers are playing their eighth game in as many days and have a 6.08 ERA in the last 10 days. 

I'd play this to +165.

COVERS INTEL: Detmers is bound for positive regression given his 60.8% left-on-base rate. That’s the worst luck among all qualified starters, so no wonder his actual ERA is nearly two runs higher than his xERA.  

Angels vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-125)

There’s value betting on Detmers’ positive regression, combined with a bruised-up Dodgers lineup. Let's break it down...

• Shohei Ohtani sat yesterday with a blister
• Max Muncy may be absent after a hard collision on Thursday
• Mookie Betts (.183/.246/.365) has temporarily lost the ability to hit baseballs
• Teoscar Hernandez is still on the IL

Not great.

The Dodgers were already an Under team (12-19 O/U at home) and are looking even more so like one, given the circumstances. 

Both starters have an above-average Stuff+ (104) and are in fine form, so it’ll be another low-scoring Dodgers game.

Angels vs Dodgers odds

• Moneyline: Angels +178 | Dodgers -185
• Run line: Angels +1.5 (-125) | Dodgers -1.5 (+105)
• Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)

Angels vs Dodgers trend

The Dodgers have cashed the Under in 15 of their last 22 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Angels vs Dodgers and game info

Angels vs Dodgers latest injuries

Angels vs Dodgers weather

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A busy evening in the big leagues offers intriguing value in the home run market, with several stars on my radar. 

My MLB player props will focus on Jackson Chourio, Oneil Cruz, and Tyler Soderstrom.

Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, June 5. 

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Jackson Chourio	+292
Oneil Cruz	+388
Tyler Soderstrom	+496
💲Today's HR parlay	+11625

Home run pick: Jackson Chourio (+292)

Jackson Chourio is one of the hottest hitters in baseball at the moment. He owns a .765 xSLG over the last week, including three home runs during that span, while possessing a 44.4% hard-hit rate. If we take a deeper dive, the power is very evident. Chourio also has a .524 ISO across his previous six games.

He'll face Colorado Rockies right-hander Ryan Feltner tonight. The starter recently returned from the IL and has made just one start since late April, so we'll look at his season as a whole.

Feltner owns a 6.35 xERA and has allowed a 46.9% hard-hit rate. He's also surrendered 38.3% of his contact through the air, while carrying a concerning 16.1% HR/FB rate.

That's an appealing matchup for Chourio, who owns a 33.3% HR/FB rate over the last week and continues to generate loud contact consistently.

With this game taking place at Coors Field — one of the most favorable home-run environments in baseball — the conditions only strengthen the case.

I'll take this pick up to +200.

• Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Brewers.TV, Rockies.TV

Home run pick: Oneil Cruz (+388)

Oneil Cruz is consistently making loud contact at the moment. Aside from his three bombs in the last six games, he owns an astounding 23.1% barrel rate during that span while carrying a ridiculous .912 xSLG.

Cruz has also slugged above .500 against left-handed pitching this season, and he'll face Atlanta Braves southpaw Martin Perez this evening.

Perez has been getting hit, with 34.1% of the contact he's allowed against left-handed batters coming in the air, and 14.3% of those fly balls leaving the yard. That's a recipe for disaster against a hitter like Cruz, who has seen 36.4% of his fly balls against lefties land in the bleachers.

I'll play this pick up to +350.

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, BravesVision

Home run pick: Tyler Soderstrom (+496)

Tyler Soderstrom is making plenty of loud contact right now, carrying a 52.6% hard-hit rate and an expected slugging percentage north of .500 over the last week. The Athletics slugger has also gone deep twice in his last six games, and the matchup is what stands out most here.

The Houston Astros hand Peter Lambert the ball, and while he hasn't allowed a home run across his last two starts, the underlying metrics suggest he's been fortunate. The right-hander has surrendered a 46.7% fly-ball rate, 46.7% hard-hit rate, and a 22.7 average launch angle during that span. Those indicators suggest opposing hitters are generating the type of contact that often turns into home runs.

Add in the short porch in left field at Daikin Park, and this matchup becomes even more appealing.

I'll take this pick up to +400.

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBC Sports California, Space City Home Network

Today’s HR parlay

Jackson Chourio	Bet Now +11625
Oneil Cruz
Tyler Soderstrom

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The Astros have reinstated 2B Jose Altuve from the 10-day IL.

The club optioned OF Zach Dezenzo to Triple A after last night’s game.

Altuve, 36, was initially diagnosed with a Grade 2 oblique strain, but recovered faster than expected. Altuve last played May 16, missing almost 3 weeks with an injury that was expected to sideline him 4-6 weeks.

Altuve started the season red hot, hitting .378 over the first 11 games of the season, but then cooled off considerably, and was batting only .245 at the time of his injury.

Dezenzo, 26, was batting .191 this season with the Astros in limited time. He was also 3 for his last 21 at the plate with 11 strikeouts. Dezenzo should see regular time in Sugar Land alongside Joey Loperfido and Zach Cole as the team hopes at least one of them will find their batting stroke and get hot, allowing them to be productive upon a recall.

Aaron Judge was officially moved to the injured list before the Yankees' game against the Red Sox on Friday, June 5. Top prospect Spencer Jones was recalled to take his spot in the outfield. Judge was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his first right rib and is expected to miss several weeks.

The Yankees said Judge will be shut down for four to six weeks before reimaging. That means the most optimistic timeline would be a late July, early August return.

Jones, a left-handed slugger, made his major-league debut last month and was underwhelming. The No. 6 prospect per MLB Pipeline, Jones hit .167/.259./.167 in 27 plate appearance during his first stint. The Yankees are thin in the outfield at the moment with Giancarlo Stanton on the IL with a right calf issue and Jasson Dominguez also on the IL with a left shoulder strain.

The Cincinnati Reds should be fresh following their off-day on Thursday, but they’re also ‘fresh’ off losing 4 of 6 at home during their most recent homestand against the Atlanta Braves and Kansas City Royals, respectively.

Now, the Reds are in St. Louis and ready to face a Cardinals club that they saw briefly two weeks ago in a series that was a complete weather mess. You’ll recall that the Friday game between these two was banged, they played a Saturday doubleheader to compensate, and then Sunday’s game was postponed until later in the season.

Even with those surprise breaks, the Cincinnati pitching staff has still been in complete shambles. They’ve been forced to cycle through players (Yunior Marte, Lyon Richardson, Brandon Liebrandt) and cull them from the 40-man roster just to find some, any fresh arms to activate, and their league-worst bullpen continues to give up games that the offense has fought hard to make close. Such was definitely the case again on Wednesday in the series finale when Tony Santillan was rocked in a 5-2 loss to Kansas City.

Still, this Reds club limps in at 31-30, above .500 for the time being. It’ll be up to Brady Singer in the series opener to turn his own personal struggles around, as on Thursday he still sported the single worst HR/9 (2.82) of the 119 MLB pitchers who have thrown at least 50 IP so far this year. He also ranks 4th worst in ERA (6.18), 3rd worst in xERA (6.49), and dead last in FIP (6.88) among that group, which is the kind of individual calamity that can tank an entire team’s season if not rectified quickly.

Kyle Leahy will start for the Cardinals. First pitch is set for 8:15 PM ET.

Good afternoon everyone, it’s time to dive back into the mailbag and answer some of your questions. Remember to send in your questions for our weekly call by e-mail to pinstripealleyblog [at] gmail [dot] com.

The idiot that said, “Harper is coming” asks:Rather than focus on trade acquisition candidates, let’s focus on who might get traded away for a moment. Who in the Yankee organization do you believe will be most likely to be traded away at the trade deadline?

Let’s start with the prospects that carry value but probably will be sticking around. Spencer Jones’ security in the organization became a lot stronger after news broke that Aaron Judge would be going on the IL with a stress fracture in his ribs, and earlier today he was indeed called back up to the major leagues for what will likely be a lengthier stint than his first one. Carlos Lagrange is viewed as a potential stalwart in the Yankee rotation, but he’s also moving over to the bullpen to get a shot at contributing this year and thus likely is also safe, especially given the team’s need for relievers. Finally, George Lombard Jr. looks to be the future Yankees shortstop and could be ready as soon as next spring, with an outside shot of getting a look this year even. He’s the team’s top prospect overall and among the game’s best in any organization meaning he could carry a lot of weight as the centerpiece of a blockbuster trade, but it would take a monumental one to convince the Yankees to part with the promising infielder.

Elmer Rodríguez sits near the top of the organization’s pitching prospects with Lagrange, and he made his MLB debut earlier in the year after a meteoric rise following his trade acquisition from Boston. He’s a name that the Yankees would certainly also like to hold onto, but he also sits on the threshold of player that the Yankees might listen in on for the right deal. There are, however, some other pitching prospects with less of a pedigree and may not have a path to the majors laid out for them yet. Bryce Cunningham fits this bill, having been held back by a couple of injuries, and even though you can never have too much pitching I’m almost certain that New York will pull from their depth here to look for a good upgrade. Given the team’s needs, it makes more sense to me that the team will trade from their pool of players outside of the upper echelon to get relief arms or an upgrade to the bench, and Cunningham fits the bill for the type of player they’d be willing to gamble on.

BetweenthePinstripes asks:At the end of every season, there’s always a team (or three) that go on a tear, upending the standings and altering the playoff picture. What’s your best guess as to which team(s) will play their best baseball at the end?

I’m afraid that the main answer to this question will be the Astros, who sit in fourth place but have survived the big blows that the pitching staff took and have started to get their lineup in order even without Carlos Correa for the rest of the season. The AL West still looks to be a mess of a division, with the Mariners finally back in first place but clinging to a 2.5 game lead over the Rangers and Athletics. Houston is a couple ticks behind at 5.5 games behind, but being three games out of a postseason spot in the final Wild Card is nothing to scoff at all things considered. With Yordan Alvarez on an absolute heater at the plate, they could force the window of contention open a crack after missing the postseason last year.

Outside of the Astros, there’s another team in their division that could turn it on late in the year. The Mariners got off to an abysmal start offensively, but their push back to the top of the division was achieved by some of their regular stars finding their groove at long last. With a core of Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez, and Randy Arozarena alongside the veteran assistance of Josh Naylor this is a team that should compete, and their rotation outside of Luis Castillo has been lights out on a near-daily basis. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see them make a run for not just the division title but a shot at hosting an ALDS or even an ALCS matchup, and they have the blueprint of what went right for them last year as the calendars turned towards fall to study from.

torturedsoulv1 asks: Will the Yankees playoff rotation be just Cole/Fried/Schittler. Or does Rodon get a start? I guess it depends on days off between games.

Days off are the essential factor, and given the turnaround for each round of play the Yankees would likely go with the main three for the Wild Card Round (assuming all of them stay locked in and healthy should they make it there). From the ALDS on it depends on what they can get away with, but Carlos Rodón has done more than enough to earn a bit of trust in a hypothetical Game 4. As for the overall order, that remains to be seen as well — Schlittler’s making a case for himself to be one of the best if not the best pitcher in the AL this year, which should give him the upper hand even over a pitcher as prolific as Gerrit Cole should winning be the biggest factor.

Two of the top four offenses in runs scored will face off tonight when the Pittsburgh Pirates come to town to play the Atlanta Braves. The Braves are third in MLB in runs and the Pirates are only four runs behind them.

The Braves will be facing Mitch Keller who has yet again put together a season of almost the exact same output of an ERA in the low fours. This year it is currently at 4.35. The good news for the Braves is that many of their core lineup bats have a history of doing well against Keller. Ronald Acuña has nineteen at-bats against Keller in which he already has three HRs, a .421 average, and 1.371 OPS. Matt Olson has the same exact OPS against Keller in twelve at-bats to include one HR and a .500 average.

Austin Riley has ten at-bats against Keller and has a .400 average and 1.055 OPS, and Mauricio Dubón has a .400 average and .955 OPS in ten at-bats. Michael Harris has struggled to an OPS of .500, but has a .250 average against Keller in twelve at-bats, so before the lineup dropped it was interesting to wonder if Walt Weiss was going to factor this in when he penciled in the names.

The other question mark, which has been daily at this point, is who is going to get the start at shortstop. Ha-Seong Kim has faced Keller in eleven at-bats and is hitless and has not exactly been living up to expectations this season so it made sense to sit him tonight, but Weiss could have decided to give him more reps to try and get him in a groove.

Finally, Austin Wynns had not made his first start yet, so some may have been patiently awaiting to see if tonight was going to be the night, especially considering Sandy León is clearly on the roster for his glove and veteran presence since it seems like he has not hit in a decade.

It turns out that Weiss went with Dubón at SS so that Mike Yastrzemski could be in LF and Dominic Smith could be the DH. It also looks like we will have to wait for Austin Wynns to get his first start in a Braves uniform. Outside of León, this looks to be the best offensive lineup to face Keller.

Martín Pérez will be on the bump for the Braves in the midst of his best season since 2022. He has been aided by BABIP and strand rates, but he still has his best expected ERA (xERA) since 2022 as well. Even though Martín Pérez has been in MLB since 2012, no player on the Pirates has more than nine at-bats against him. Brandon Lowe has an OPS of .788 in those nine at-bats. One player to keep an eye on is long time Brave, Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna is second on the team with seven at-bats against Pérez, and has done a ton of damage. He owns a .571 average and 1.700 OPS.

First pitch is at 7:15 EDT.

Roki Sasaki’s path in the big leagues has tested the resolve of a player who, before coming to the US, had known nothing but absolute success in his career. Something has clicked during the course of the season, though, for the right-hander to turn a corner in the last month, finishing May with a 3.18 ERA and a sub-1.00 WHIP. In his last start, Sazaki showed up with increased velocity, sitting at 98.5 MPH on his four-seam fastball, nearly a tick and a half above his season average. The increased velocity helped Sasaki induce more whiffs on his four-seamer, something he hasn’t done particularly well this season, with a whiff rate slightly below league average on the pitch.

As well as Sasaki pitched against the Phillies in a game the Dodgers ended up losing thanks to late hiccups from Tanner Scott, much like in Thursday’s defeat against the D-backs—it pales in comparison with what Sasaki accomplished the last time he faced the Angels. Sasaki was marvelous in seven innings of one-run ball against the Angels with eight punchouts, keeping Mike Trout in the yard, the number one goal for any pitcher facing the Halos.

On the other side, the Dodgers sit in the dark on what to expect from opposing starter Reid Detmers and the Angels. They’ll be facing a starting pitcher who, in the month of May alone, managed to walk six batters, strike out 14, and give up eight earned runs, all in separate starts. When he is on, Detmers can dominate a lineup, but that’s not the case very often. Historically, the Dodgers have punished Detmers quite regularly with 19 runs in just 29 innings against the southpaw.

Friday’s game info

• Teams: Dodgers vs. Angels
• Ballpark: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
• Start time: 7:10 p.m. PT
• TV: SportsNet LA
• Radio: AM 570 (English), KTNQ 1020 AM (Spanish)

The offense the Phillies have been trotting out this season has been putrid at worst, average at best. You know this is something that can be state with almost factual intent when people get excited about the team scoring six runs on Wednesday. There have been a few spurts here and there of competence, most notably the games that followed the firing of Rob Thomson. Even in those games, the lineup was mostly reliant on Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber going nuclear for a few weeks in a row. In most of the other games this season, the help received by those two has mostly come in the form of Brandon Marsh. Nary a helper can be found with any regularity.

It’s quite jarring to use leaderboards for different offensive categories and see where the Phillies are ranking. After Wednesday’s game, the top of the National League leaderboard did see this trio mixed in. There’s Kyle Schwarber, sixth in the NL in wRC+ (157). Hey, there’s Harper, hanging around the top fourteen names (140). Look, scroll just a hair further and you can find that junkyard dog in Marsh (132), mixed in with names that, preseason, you’d have never put him with, names like de la Cruz and Freeman.

It’s not that trio that have been the problem. It is the supporting cast that has let the team done. One could argue that a lot of the blame could be placed on one or two players, but it truly has been a collective effort of badneess on the two thirds of the lineup not producing. Take that same wRC+ leaderboard mentioned up top and flip it so that the lowest numbers are at the top and you will find not one, not two – not even three – Phillies names there. You’ll find FIVE Phillies regulars among the very bottom of the league in wRC+ – Adolis Garcia (66), Alec Bohm (67), Trea Turner (73), Justin Crawford (78), and Bryson Stott (78). Adjust the qualifications a bit to lower the required plate appearances to 110 – hi, J.T. (71)!

That’s not just horrid, that’s downright….offensive.

In fact, it could also be something unprecedented. The other day, our very own John Stolnis wrote about how bad the team has been at the plate and put it into a more historic sense:

The Phillies’ offense is off to a historically terrible start. Coming into Tuesday’s three-game series against the Padres at Citizens Bank Park, their .224 team batting average is 2nd-worst in MLB (Padres, .218). Even in a season in which offenses throughout baseball are generally struggling, it is particularly terrible.

But even worse, their .224 average is the worst, through any team’s first 59 games in franchise history, of all time.

Folks, when you’re mentioned with wartime Phillies teams, that’s company that needn’t be kept. The unprecedented part is how bad it might get should these same players continue being this bad. In baseball history, there has only been one team that has had 5 or more players with 375 or more plate appearances and an OPS+ of 76 or less: the 1950 St. Louis Browns. As of right now, the Phillies have six regulars with an OPS+ less than 77.

It is just bad right now, the outburst on Wednesday notwithstanding.

The question becomes, can they change anything to make it better? Outside of radical personnel changes, that answer is probably no. Instead, the best change they can make is making sure the players that are hitting best are hitting the most often. That means having a lineup change imminent. As resistant as certain players are to do doing that, the struggle they have to score runs should have them lean towards doing as much as possible to take advantage of what they have working now.

Kyle Schwarber was the obvious choice to move into the leadoff spot, but he has a .609 OPS from that spot, a number that is almost 400 points lower than his accustomed second spot. On the flip side, Trea Turner has been better hitting second, clocking in with a .730 OPS from the spot. It’s unlikely the team would move Bryce Harper from his preferred third spot in the order, making Marsh the best option to hit behind him since he’s really the only one hitting well. It might be time to consider yet another move, this one maybe a bit more stark.

1. Marsh
2. Turner
3. Harper
4. Schwarber
5. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
6. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
7. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
8. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
9. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Marsh is not your typical leadoff hitter, yet drastic times, drastic measures, yada yada. He’s hit in the position a few games in his career, but mostly with the Phillies, he has been relegated (often rightfully so) to the second half of the lineup. The idea here is: if he’s on a career best hot streak this long into the season, why not ride it as long as possible? Sure, that bumps Schwarber all the way down to the cleanup spot, taking away the idea that a team should give their best hitters as many cracks at the plate as possible, but again – the team isn’t scoring runs often. Something different should be on the table.

If nothing else, it reinforces the dire need for a middle of the order right handed bat the team needs to add as soon as possible. The lack of production from Bohm, Garcia and Realmuto has made this doubly tough as it forces the team to shuffle deck chairs with the lineup card. Don Mattingly can rotate whoever he wants, wherever he wants, but if the team is going to continue to not hit, does it really matter?

Will they consider a lineup change? Probably not. There has been a lot of confidence emanating from the coaching staff that the players struggling will turn things around. There is plenty of time and history to indicate that might actually happen. Yet with a National League that has a surprising number of teams thinking they can get into the playoffs, banking wins now with a lineup constructed to better fit what they need could lead to a more secure playoff spot down the line.

As I said before, drastic times, drastic measures.

Last night I went to a trivia night contest at a local bar and one of the questions was – what number are the three uniform numbers retired by the Royals all divisible by? (answer below*) Retired numbers are reserved for the greatest in club history. But we all have our favorites that weren’t necessarily Hall of Famers, All-Stars, and sometimes they’re not even starting players.

One of my favorite Royals of all-time was Joe Randa. Nicknamed “the Joker” for his wide smile while he batted, Randa was a sure-handed third baseman and a doubles machine who seemed to have a knack for clutch hitting. He was a bit quiet and unassuming, modest, and hard-working – and fans loved that. He returned the love, calling Kansas City his home, even after he was traded away early in his career. He returned and become a solid starter and key to one of the best offenses in club history. He never made an All-Star team, but he’s one of my favorite players – I was fortunate enough to write his biography for the Society of American Baseball Research.

I have had some other favorites that never even reached the fame of Randa. Rey Palacios, Rusty Meacham, Esteban German, Justin Huber, Nori Aoki, Tim Collins, and of course, Kila Kaaihue were all guys I rooted for to make it.

Who was your favorite under-the-radar Royals player of all-time?

*-Five. (#5 George Brett, #10 Dick Howser, #20 Frank White)

Today marks the 36th anniversary of the Blue Jays’ first game at the SkyDome.

The stadium officially opened a couple of days earlier with a gala event featuring Oscar Peterson and comedian Andrea Martin. On June 8, Rod Stewart performed the first concert at the venue. I wonder if he has changed his setlist since then?

I have a story about that first game. Thirty-two years ago, I was a much younger Blue Jays fan. Some of the Jays’ games aired on CTV, but locally, they decided to join the game in progress after the evening news. You can imagine my disappointment. After the news finally ended, instead of switching to the game, they aired a half-hour feature about the construction of Skydome and a tour highlighting the ballpark’s modern features—hot and cold running water, vintage popcorn from the first Exhibition Stadium game, quirky details like that.

By the time the broadcast finally switched to the game, it was already an hour and a half underway. Naturally, I was not pleased.

The Jays lost 5-3 to the Brewers. Jimmy Key pitched a complete game, allowing 9 hits and throwing 141 pitches—yes, 141 pitches in a loss. Cito Gaston wasn’t one for pitch counts. In Key’s next start, he lasted only 3 innings and allowed 5 earned runs. The bullpen had already logged 19 innings over three games in Boston prior to this one, so Key took one for the team.

To be fair to Cito Gaston, this was the only game that season in which a Blue Jays starter topped 140 pitches. Across MLB in 1989, there were 39 games where a pitcher reached that mark—Nolan Ryan led the way with seven, Roger Clemens had four, and Bobby Witt had two. No other pitcher had more than one such outing. John Farrell, a familiar name, threw 159 pitches against the Jays in a Cleveland loss. Unsurprisingly, 1989 was the last year Farrell would throw more than 100 innings. The highest single-game pitch count that season belonged to Nolan Ryan, who threw 164 pitches on September 12 against the Royals—and didn’t even finish the game.

Gary Sheffield drove in the game’s first run in the opening inning, scoring Paul Molitor—who notched the first hit—on a groundout.

The Blue Jays’ first runs and home run at SkyDome came courtesy of Fred McGriff, who launched a two-run shot that also brought home George Bell.

Our batting order was (what a terrific lineup):

Junior Felix RF

Tony Fernandez SS

Kelly Gruber 3B

George Bell LF

Fred McGriff 1B

Lloyd Moseby CF

Ernie Whitt C

Rance Mulliniks DH

Nelson Liriano 2B

Bell and McGriff hit homers. Kelly Gruber went 2 for 4 with a double.

After that game, the Jays sat at 23-32, sixth in the AL East and nine games behind the Orioles. Despite the slow start, the team rallied for a remarkable 76-41 run to capture the division title. That was the year Cito Gaston took over from Jimy Williams after 36 games and a 12-14 record, guiding the club to a 77-49 finish. A trade deadline acquisition of Mookie Wilson also energized the roster.

The new ballpark delivered a major revenue boost, with luxury suites starting at $150,000 and SkyClub seats fetching between $2,000 and $4,000.

SkyDome was met with rave reviews from both players and fans. Ernie Whitt even dubbed it the eighth wonder of the world.

Anne Murray performed the national anthems, just as she did for the inaugural Blue Jays game at Exhibition Stadium.

What are your memories of the early days of SkyDome?

Prior to the 2025 season, one of my bold predictions was that DJ Herz was poised to have a breakout season. Back in 2024, Herz showed swing and miss stuff, while throwing more strikes than expected. However, after a rough Spring Training, it was revealed that Herz had to undergo Tommy John Surgery.

Since then, the left hander has faded out of the picture and has become a forgotten piece of the Nats future. That is going to change really quickly though because Herz is back on the mound. This afternoon the 25 year old lefty made his first rehab start in Rookie Ball. Herz overwhelmed the FCL hitters he faced, throwing two perfect inning with four strikeouts.

Outside of just getting back on the mound, the most important thing out of this outing is that Herz did not walk anybody. In his minor league career, Herz had serious control problems. He has walked 5.88 batters per 9 innings in his MILB career. However, that did not stop him from being a successful pitcher because his stuff is so good.

In case you forgot, Herz has a dynamic arsenal. His fastball averaged 93.5 MPH but it plays way above the velocity. This is due to his deceptive delivery, his big extension down the mound and the elite shape of his fastball. In 2024, the whiff rate on his fastball was over 30%, which is bonkers for a heater that is only in the low to mid 90’s.

However, he was not known for his fastball in the minors. As Herz rose through the ranks, scouts buzzed about his changeup. The pitch has 10 MPH of velocity separation from his fastball and has great downward movement. It looks like the fastball most of the way before falling off the table.

That changeup got good results, but did not play like an elite pitch. Sometimes Herz would slow down his arm when throwing the changeup, which tips off the hitters. When he sells the pitch well, the changeup can be devastating. Herz’s third pitch is a slider which is not a special pitch on paper, but plays well off of the fastball and changeup.

When DJ Herz had his best stuff, he was absolutely electric to watch. There was an outing against the Marlins in 2024 where he struck out 13 and walked nobody. I think it was the most dominant outing from a Nats pitcher since Max Scherzer left DC. He had the Marlins hitters on a string.

The flashes of elite stuff is what made me so excited about Herz entering 2025. It also made his injury such a bummer. He has been out of the picture for nearly a year and a half now. However, now that he has started a rehab assignment, that puts the Nats on the clock. Pitchers rehab assignments can only be 30 days long. After the 30 days, the team will have to make a decision to either call Herz up to the big leagues or send him to AAA for more reps.

If Herz continues throwing the ball like he did today, that will become an interesting decision. At worst, I think Herz could be electric in that multi-inning relief role that Brad Lord and Mitchell Parker have been in. Herz would be an immediate upgrade over Parker in that role.

With Herz coming back from a serious injury, I do not think the Nats will throw him right back in the rotation. He will probably be eased in either in the minors or the bullpen. This is the first step of his rehab assignment, and we will see what is next. I would assume his next rehab start will either be in Low-A or High-A, unless the Nats like having him in the confines of West Palm Beach. Herz should steadily throw more pitches as he builds up, and will eventually face tougher competition.

This is something Nationals fans should be really excited about. If Herz can keep his walk rate in the 9-10% range that it was in 2024, he will be a piece of the Nats rotation moving forward. His 27.7% strikeout rate when we last saw him in the big leagues was elite, and would give this Nats pitching staff a new element. Herz can blow fastballs by hitters in a way most of these Nationals pitchers cannot.

As he continues his rehab assignment, I will be watching the walk numbers and the velocity once it is available. Those are the two things that will tell you how close Herz is. We did not see the velocity today, but Herz not walking anybody is a very encouraging sign. It shows that he is already feeling sharp, which is awesome to see in his first time back in game action.

The Nats pitching this season has not been great, but there is help on the way. Between Herz, Jarlin Susana and Travis Sykora, there are a lot of young arms on the mend right now. Herz will be the first to make an impact, and if he is at his best, that impact could be loud.

With the MLB collective bargaining agreement set to expire on Dec. 1, the possibility of a lockout before the 2027 season looms. And early negotiations between the league and the union have not been promising. 

On May 28, the league proposed a hard salary cap, which would be the first hard cap in MLB history and kick in for the start of the 2027 campaign.

Under the proposal, the hard cap would be $245.3 million, with a salary floor of $171.2 million. The floor would also be an MLB first.

Unsurprisingly, that proposal was a non-starter for the union.

Although it was just an opening proposal, a hard cap of $245.3 million feels quite low, given that the current CBT tax kicks in once a team crosses $244 million in yearly salary. 

There are currently eight teams that project to be above (with a handful well above) the luxury tax at the end of the 2026 season -- the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Blue Jays, Braves, Cubs, and Padres.

The Mets' current payroll is roughly $379 million, with the Dodgers leading the pack at around $416 million. Expecting teams to get under a figure of $245.3 million for 2027 borders on fantasy. Even something $100 million or so higher would be a very difficult ask for teams like the Mets and Dodgers. 

Juan Soto, who signed the biggest contract in MLB history a few offseasons ago, recently weighed in on the labor talks.

"I don’t think that’s right, to have a cap," Soto told Will Sammon of The Athletic. "Baseball is doing great. We’ve been increasing every year. It’s been great for baseball. We are in the best moment in baseball right now in all kinds of ways. Why should we have a cap?"

While the $245.3 million cap number MLB proposed seems quite low, the floor of $171.2 million also feels like a level at least a handful of small-market owners would balk at, even though it should be easily doable.

The last labor negotiations -- in 2022 -- dragged out until the middle of March, with the season starting on April 7 as a result.

The Atlanta Braves were not able to get a sweep of the reigning AL champion Toronto Blue Jays yesterday, but they did win the series and look to take that momentum into the weekend series against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Pirates are having somewhat of a surprising season this year with a .540 record, and a run differential of plus thirty-seven. They had Paul Skenes to build off of and went and added some bats in the off-season, but it would be hard for someone with a straight face to say they predicted this outcome so far this season.

Martín Pérez will be taking on the Pirates offense that has currently scored only four less runs than the Braves ranking them fourth in MLB. Unfortunately for Pérez, he has not faced many of these hitters much in his career. He has only seen six of the hitters on the Pirates’ current roster and none of them have more than nine at-bats against him. Brandon Lowe has those nine at-bats and Pérez has struggled a bit allowing a .333 average and .788 OPS against him. Old friend Marcell Ozuna has seven at-bats and has definitely had the edge in the matchup with a .571 average and 1.700 OPS.

On paper Pérez has been fantastic this year and has been way better than likely most expected with an ERA of 2.79. If his season ended today, that would be his best ERA in a season in his career. His strikeout rate of 20.5 would be his second best in a season. For his career he has averaged 16.5 percent. Interestingly, he has been able to do all of this with a fastball that averages 90.0 MPH, which is unheard of in today’s game.

The down side for Pérez is that his ERA is likely unsustainable. Players are hitting the ball hard against him 42.0 percent of the time which is far higher than his career 36.1 percent and ranks in the bottom 29.0 percent of MLB. He has also been aided by a BABIP against of .226 and a strand rate of 84.4 percent. All of this combined shows his expected ERA (xERA) to be 4.34. This xERA is not terrible for a fifth starter. In fact, it is the best he has had in a season since 2022. However, it is important to note that regression is likely coming and he is facing a potent offense tonight.

The Pirates will bring Mitch Keller to the mound that some would say has been an underrated pitcher for most of his career. He is not elite by any means, but he has gotten the job done many times and has been a steady arm for the Pirates for years.

Coming into this game Keller sports an ERA of 4.35, and a what is interesting is his xERA is almost exactly the same at 4.36. Basically, what you see is what you get with him. In 2024 he had the exact same ERA and xERA.

The Braves as a team have faced Keller quite a bit. Eight different players have faced him between eight and nineteen times. Of these players, the Braves core lineup has mostly had great success. Ronald Acuña has nineteen at-bats against Keller and has three HRs and 1.371 OPS in that span against him. Matt Olson has the exact same OPS as Acuña against Keller in twelve at-bats, and Austin Riley has an OPS of 1.055 in ten at-bats against him. Mauricio Dubón has also had success in ten at-bats with a .400 average and .955 OPS.

Michael Harris has struggled to a .500 OPS, and Ha-Seong Kim is hitless in eleven at-bats.

The key for the Braves today will be to get to the Pirates bullpen as soon as they can because their bullpen is a clear weakness with an ERA of 4.29, which is in the bottom twelve teams in MLB.

First pitch is at 7:15 EDT.

Game Info

Game Time: Friday, June 5th, 7:15 pm EDT

Location: Truist Park, , Atlanta, GA

Watch: BravesVision

Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan