Category: MLB

You know how you felt about this year’s Chicago Cubs.

They had a great offense, tops in many categories in Major League Baseball.

They had a great defense, leading MLB in almost every category

The pitching, yikes, it was pretty bad. I’ll have more to say tomorrow when I post my final 2026 Cubs pitcher grades.

Cubs President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer had his season-ending news conference Friday afternoon and basically echoed all those thoughts. The quote in the headline from Hoyer, I think, sums up what every one of us felt about this year. He added, “Fans deserve playoff games. Fans deserved a long run and we let it slip away.”

Then Hoyer addressed the pitching staff. He noted that some of the issues this year were due to injuries, some to poor performance and some to “poor acquisitions,” which is a heck of a thing for a baseball executive to admit publicly. Props to Hoyer for acknowledging what all of us saw.

He noted that the team ranked 12th in the league in runs allowed, while noting that most of that is due to good defense, and so the quality of pitching has to improve. Hoyer noted what we all know: they’re going to have to look at “swing and miss,” as the team gave up far too many home runs this year. “You can’t catch homers.”, he quipped.

But he followed that by noting that Brewers pitching is “exceptionally good” and “We have to double down on that,” also noting the excellence of the Padres bullpen.

About the Cubs bullpen, Hoyer said: “I did a poor job on the bullpen this year, full stop.”

It was good to hear him say that. That’s a “the buck stops here” statement, no excuses. Now go do better for 2027.

Again, these are things that all of us have noticed all along. It’s a good thing that management understands this and has to take a hard look at what they’ve been doing pitching-wise. No one asked Hoyer about pitching coach Tommy Hottovy and the pitching infrastructure, but clearly that’s something that has to be re-evaluated.

He cited losing Cade Horton, Justin Steele and Ben Brown to injuries as one of the biggest issues of the year and said that the team has to also focus on pitcher health.

Hoyer was asked about Edward Cabrera. His response: “Cabrera is a really good big league pitcher, we have to look at ourselves, what did we not do to get the most out of him. He has talent and really cares.”

That’s all well and good, and yes, Cabrera has had success previously at the big-league level. If he can get back to that… well, that’s the job of the pitching infrastructure.

Regarding Clay Holmes and Kevin Gausman, Hoyer said they were not “optimized” going into the postseason. I suppose that’s why Holmes did not pitch, though Hoyer gave no details. Gausman, as you know, suffered a minor injury to his non-pitching shoulder in his last regular-season start. It’s not clear if that affected him in his Wild Card Series start.

Then the topic of free agency was broached. Here’s what Hoyer said:

“We have a lot of good players who are free agents and we are not going to be able to bring back all of them. We will talk to a lot of them, don’t know where that’s going to go. We will talk to them between now and December 1. But the team will look and feel different next year. If there are contracts that make sense regardless of the structure, we will make those deals regardless.”

That was followed up by a question about Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ and whether that door was closed. Hoyer’s response:

“Is that door closed? No, everything’s on the table. I’ll sit down with Happ in the next couple weeks. Homegrown player who has embraced what it is to be a Cub in a special way. I respect the way he plays baseball, the way he prepares to play. I have nothing but great thoughts about Ian.”

You’ll notice there were no comments made here about Suzuki. I’d really love to see him back. Hopefully the “everything’s on the table” remark applies to him as well.

Hoyer was reminded of the contract signed five years ago with Marcus Stroman and was asked whether something like that might happen this time. He noted that the period before the lockout will be “active,” and said, “If deals make sense they are going to get done. That might be a blueprint for how this goes again.”

About Craig Counsell, Hoyer said, “Craig had a great year, players love playing for him, we are incredibly well prepared. Craig sets a standard for that, handles the bullpen really well.”

I concur with that. Without Counsell’s handling of the bullpen the way he did, the Cubs might have lost several more games and missed the postseason completely.

He praisdAlex Bregman and said Bregman’s season is a “reminder of how long the season is, his eomeback is a testament to how strong a person he is” and added: “We felt his absence the last week. We had home field and gave it up.”

Hoyer’s conclusion, which I am sure you will agree with:

“There were a lot of exceptional things that happened this year, but we had a lot of injuries and a pitching staff that wasn’t as good as the hitting side, and that’s what we’re going to focus on.”

It will be a busy offseason for the Cubs President of Baseball Operations, and he might have only two months to complete his task before the likely owners’ lockout hits. As always, we await developments.

So… we meet again.

It isn’t my favorite set-up to have two years in a row the Guardians overcome a significant deficit to win the AL Central, only to meet their division rival in the playoffs a week later. But, here we are. Let’s hope the results are more to Cleveland’s favor this time around.

The White Sox won the season series 7-6, with 11 of those games decided by three or fewer runs and six by only one run. Two games went into extra innings. Expect this series to be hard-fought and likely go five games.

For the season, the White Sox were 5th in MLB at 104 wRC+, the Guardians were 20th in MLB at 97 wRC+, the White Sox were 20th in MLB at -4.1 baserunning runs above average, the Guardians were eighth in baserunning runs above average at 5.2, the White Sox were 14th in Defense at -14.3, the Guardians were eighth in Defense at -7.3, the White Sox were 26th in starting pitchee ERA at 4.60 ERA (4.41 FIP), the Guardians were 9th in starting pitcher ERA at 3.93 (3.89 FIP), the White Sox had the eighth best bullpen ERA at 3.70 (4.10 FIP), and the Guardians had the sixth best bullpen ERA at 3.54 ERA (3.70 FIP).

From these overall numbers, I think it’s clear that if the Guardians can keep White Sox hitters remotely in check, they should have an advantage. But, that is, of course, a big “if” and a big “should.” Anything can happen in a short playoff series, especially one against a division rival with whom you are very familiar.

The Guardians will start Parker Messick in game one and Gavin Williams in game two. This will line Messick up to start in game four and Williams in game five. I suspect tbe team will go with Cantillo and an opener in game three, but we will have to wait and see. The White Sox will start reliever Hagen Smith and likely go to Davis Martin as the bulk guy after 2-3 innings in game one, then start Sean Burke in game two, and Anthony Kay in game three (they are fond of openers so there may be one for each game). It will be key for the Guardians to get to the White Sox starters/bulk guys for some runs because the Chicago bullpen is formidable.

BigQuestions for the Series:

Rest or Reps?
The White Sox come into the series rolling after demolishing the Astros. Of course, doing so required them to put even more innings on their bullpen arms. Grant Taylor’s 86 innings are almost twice the number of innings he threw in 2024-2025 combined, Sean Newcomb threw 92 innings total last season and is now at 92 with the next out he gets and hadn’t thrown anywhere near that amount since 2018… there are reasons to think this wear and tear will eventually come to bear on a good Sox pen. Sean Burke’s 176 innings are by far a career high for him (as is also the case for Parker Messick, of course). Meanwhile, Cleveland has to be concerned about how they will have maintained their sharpness with 5-6 days off, as is always the case with MLB teams that secure the bye through the wildcard.

Who Fills Out the Circle of Trust?
This year has not been Hunter Gaddis’s best year and Tim Herrin has often struggled mightily to throw strikes. This leaves some significant questions in the back end of the Guardians’ bullpen. You have to feel good about Cade Smith and Erik Sabrowski, but you also need to be aware of overextending either pitcher/giving the White Sox too many looks at them in a short amount of time. Hunter Gaddis’s ability to rediscover the pitcher he has been from 2024-2025 and through the first half of September will be key for this team’s ability to survive the days ahead. Will Vogt be willing to give some high leverage reps to Daniel Espino, Foster Griffin, Slade Cecconi and even Tanner Bibee? Should he be willing? I think this is the biggest question mark for our Guards.

How Long Do You Ride Your Horses?
To go along with the previous question, already, much has been made of managers’ penchants for removing starters before they get to the “third-time-through-the-order-penalty.” TTTOP is a real thing and I think managers receive too much pushback for going to relievers when starters begin to lose their top-end stuff in a short playoff series… but because the Guardians’ bullpen is thin, I hope Vogt does everything in his power to allow Messick and Williams, if they are pitching well, to get through six innings. Even if they get tagged, fans should prepare to forgive Vogt because there is a decent possibility that Messick and Williams facing TTTOP is going to be preferable to Vogt’s fifth-sixth inning options out of the pen. Once we get to the seventh, however, Vogt should be willing to deploy Sabrowski and Smith with no hesitation (which one dependent on where they are in the White Sox batting order).

How Quickly Do You Seek the Platoon Advantage?
This question is already facing Vogt with the news that the White Sox are still, as expected, leaning on openers. Does Vogt respond by putting David Fry and potentially Rhys Hoskins in the lineup? Does he then lift both if Davis Martin comes in by the third inning and run the risk of exposing Nathaniel Lowe to some tough lefties late in the game with no bench help behind him? Vogt received a lot of criticism for early pinch-hitting against Detroit last playoffs, but, in my view, he had the opportunity to go for a knockout punch and decided to take the risk to get a lead. I think that’s always a justifiable decision… but import needs to rest on making sure your best hitters stay in the lineup as long as possible.

Which Team’s Young Players Are Ready for the Playoff Spotlight?
In what should set us up for some fun years ahead as AL Central fans (once MLB sorts their labor problems out), the Guardians are the tenth youngest team in MLB and the White Sox are the 15th youngest, with both teams being carried by the performances of rookies/2nd year players. That first taste of postseason baseball can be a shock to the system. How much does it help folks like Brayan Rocchio, Chase DeLauter and Angel Martinez to have some of that experience under their belts? How much does it help the players on the White Sox to have the Wildcard games behind them and the jitters that may have accompanied those contests?

Key Matchups:

Sean Burke vs. the Guardians’ hitters: Burke has a 1.04 ERA in 17 innings against Cleveland this season. Should that continue, then you’d expect the White Sox to steal game two in Cleveland, given that the off-days will allow Burke to start that day. The Guardians will have to find a way to steal a run or two off of Burke to give Gavin Williams a chance at finding them a win.
Cade Smith vs. the White Sox hitters: Smith has a 4.32 ERA/5.04 FIP against Chicago this season. It’s probably small sample size but I’m here to tell you that if anything like that continues to be a trend, the Guardians will be headed home in short order.
Jose Ramirez bounceback vs. Munetaka Murakami bounceback: Both Ramirez and Murakami had lengthy absences with injuries this season, through which their respective teams persevered. Both returned diminished versions of themselves… Jose put up a 111 wRC+ prior to his injury (with much better expected stats) and Murakami put up a 158 wRC+ prior to his injury. Upon their returns, Ramirez had a 66 wRC+ and Murakami had a 107 wRC+. If either one of them find themselves with some of that early season magic returning after some break/off-days, that could be a huge factor in their respective team advancing.
Ramirez, Chase DeLauter, Jo Adell, Angel Martinez, David Fry and Austin Hedges vs. the White Sox Lefties: Adell has a 206 wRC+ vs. LHP with the Guardians, DeLauter 138, Martinez 129, Jose 128, Fry 120 since August 1st, and Hedges 114 overall. The White Sox are going to throw a lot of good lefties at the Guardians to attack their left-handed-hitting heavy roster. If these six show something like what they’ve done in 2026 against southpaws, I like Cleveland’s chances to head to the ALCS.
Randal Grichuk vs. Guardians’ LHP: Grichuk put up a 204 wRC+ vs. Guardians’ left-handed pitchers this season. To which my response is… “That low?” The Guardians seemingly chose to keep Stuart Fairchild over going out and getting Grichuk when he was available in-season. Will that decision come back to haunt them in the playoffs as it did during the regular season? If so, the White Sox will get their revenge.

The Guardians will win this series if…

Messick and Williams are the best versions of themselves, Gaddis and Herrin are not disasters, and Chase DeLauter, Steven Kwan and Angel Martinez remain three of the best hitters in MLB as they have been for the second half of the 2026 season. For once, I don’t think the Guardians HAVE to have the best version of Jose to advance… which is nice… but good Jose would also go a long way to help.

The White Sox will win this series if...

Burke and their relief pitching hold up to their tremendous usage rates and they continue to find magical moments from folks like Randal Grichuk, Tristan Peters (18-pitch-AB against Gavin Williams, yo), and Chase Meidroth.

The Schedule for the ALDS between the Guardians and White Sox (TBS/TruTV and HBOMax):

Saturday, October 3rd – 1PM ET

Monday, October 5th – 5PM ET

Wednesday, October 7th – 4PM ET

Thursday, October 8th – 5PM ET (if the only game that day it will be moved to 8pm) *if necessary

Saturday, October 10th – 5PM ET (if the only game that day it will be moved to 8pm) *if necessary

Glossary: Remember that wRC+ is a comprehensive measure of run production in which 100 is league average. Defense is FanGraphs’ calculation of wins above replacement level at defensive predictions.
FIP is ERA if you remove the effects of the defense behind a pitcher.

What are we thinking, Guardians fans? How do you see this series shaking out and what are your keys for a Cleveland victory?

There was a whole lot of roster shuffling on the pitching side in the final couple of weeks and a lot of injuries that occurred with not many games left to play. That said, most of the Mets’ young pitchers ended their seasons on a high note and the return of Devin Williams plus the continued success of some of the pitchers who were given an opportunity in the bullpen in the second half provide reasons for optimism in 2027.

Player	Last week	This week
Xzavion Curry, RHP	—
Daniel Duarte, RHP
Justin Hagenman, RHP
Nate Lavender, LHP
Sean Manaea, LHP
Nolan McLean, RHP
Tobias Myers, RHP
Dedniel Núñez, RHP
Cionel Pérez, LHP
Jonathan Pintaro, RHP
Christian Scott, RHP
Kodai Senga, RHP
Robert Stock, RHP
Zac Thonton, LHP
Jonah Tong, RHP
Austin Warren, RHP
Jack Weisenburger, RHP
Devin Williams, RHP
Jefry Yan, LHP

The first major pitching injury to emerge was when Robert Stock was placed on the injured list on September 16 with numbness in his fingers—not an encouraging sign as he made his way back from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. Xzavion Curry was forced into last minute service and started in Stock’s place against the Orioles. Unfortunately it did not go well for him. He was knocked around for six runs on six hits—four of them home runs. It was, put simply, a clunker. Curry was immediately sent back down to Triple-A after the game and eventually designated for assignment and outrighted to the FCL Mets.

Both Jefry Yan and Jack Weisenburger lifted heavy loads in that game, pitching three innings apiece in relief in the lopsided loss. Both of them did their jobs; Yan pitched three hitless innings with three strikeouts and Weisenburger gave up a run and struck out five. Weisenburger appeared in two other games—once in the Phillies series and once in the Rangers series—and was not scored upon in either appearance. Yan was much more heavily used to mixed results. He earned the win on Beltran Day with 1 1/3 scoreless innings in relief of Christian Scott, who made his final start of the season in that game before hitting the injured list himself with knee inflammation. Scott fell just short of being the pitcher of record, giving up three runs on six hits in 4 2/3 innings with seven strikeouts. Yan allowed an RBI single to Alec Bohn in the fifth and that run was charged to Scott, but Yan stopped the bleeding there and the Mets took the lead in the bottom of the frame. Yan came right back out the next day and pitched a scoreless inning—following Weisenburger’s 1 1/3 scoreless frames—in the Mets’ 7-2 loss to the Phillies in the series finale. Yan’s final two appearances were unfortunately not as successful. He gave up a solo homer in the sixth to Corey Seager in the series finale against the Rangers and allowed two more baserunners after that, necessitating being bailed out of the jam before completing an inning. He then served as the opener in the very messy bullpen game in Washington DC and was charged with two runs on three hits in 1 2/3 innings of work.

At the same time that Stock was placed on the IL, Daniel Duarte was as well due to a hamstring strain, which unfortunately brought his 2026 season—which was a pleasant surprise—to an end. Yan was promoted in Duarte’s stead. It seemed like Yan’s season was over when he was optioned back down to the minors after being the first in line of the bullpen disaster in the series opener in DC, but he ended the season on the big league roster because Jonathan Pintaro was placed on the injured list on the season’s final day with an illness and Yan replaced him. Pintaro’s designation being changed to the red cross at the 11th hour makes the meter look a little better because he struggled in the season’s final stretch, especially in the final series against the Nationals. But perhaps the illness played a role in that poor performance. Pintaro appeared twice in the Orioles series on back-to-back days and though he had a scoreless outing in his first appearance, he took the loss in the infamous second game of that series for giving up the inside the park home run in the eleventh.

Preceding that, Kodai Senga—in what was likely his low point in serving as a relief pitcher this year—gave up a game-tying home run to Pete Alon so in the 9th inning that also happened to be his milestone 300th career home run. Senga’s performance overall in the last two weeks of the season was uneven. The day before in the series opener, Senga pitched a scoreless ninth inning after the Mets fell behind by a run to keep them within striking distance, giving up two hits, but striking out three batters. Following the infamous Pete Alonso moment, Senga had another disastrous outing against the Phillies in which he was charged with three runs in just 1/3 of an inning, which allowed that game to get away. He did end his season on a high note, earning the save in the series opener against Texas with a 1-2-3 ninth inning complete with two strikeouts.

Dedniel Núñez immediately preceded Senga on two occasions. He took the loss in the narrow 2-1 defeat at the hands of the Orioles when he gave up a go-ahead solo homer to Gunnar Henderson in the eighth. But he didn’t give up any more hits in the four appearances that followed that one. In the 6-3 victory over the Phillies in the second game of that four-game set, Núñez earned his first save of the season with 1 1/3 scoreless innings to finish out the game. He followed that with a hold (his fourth of the season) the next day with a scoreless eighth in another Mets victory. In the aforementioned game against the Rangers that Senga saved, Núñez served as the setup man for him with a 1-2-3 eighth inning with two strikeouts, earning another hold. Núñez pitched a scoreless sixth inning in the second game of the final series in Washington DC and ended up earning the win after the Mets took the lead in the seventh and retained it.

That performance by Núñez came in relief of Jonah Tong who had one of the best starts of his young care in that penultimate game against the Nationals. Tong yielded just one run on three hits in five innings of work, striking out a career-high nine batters and walking only one. It is only a shame that the Mets waited until the later innings to start scoring so that he could not earn the victory to finish his season. Of Tong’s final three starts overall, two of them were good and one of them was not so good. Tong delivered a quality start in the series opener against the Orioles, which Núñez ultimately spoiled, but made up for it in his next appearance in relief of Tong in DC. Tong struck out six Orioles hitters over six innings of work and gave up only one run, which was unearned. Unfortunately, Tong took the loss in the series finale against the Phillies, in which he gave up four runs on five hits in 4 2/3 innings, striking out five batters and walking four. The Mets were still within striking distance of that game, but things got out of hand in the eighth with Senga’s rough outing.

Austin Warren came in the game after Senga’s implosion and cleaned up the mess thanks to a double play grounder off the bat of Bryce Harper that ended the inning. Warren went on to pitch a scoreless ninth as well in what was at that point a lopsided game. Warren made five appearances in total in the final two weeks of the season and was only scored upon in one of them. Warren pitched a scoreless ninth inning in the series opener against Philadelphia in which the Mets were shut out by Aaron Nola. In the extra-inning loss to the Orioles, Warren delivered the final two outs of the sixth inning and the first out of the seventh inning while the Mets were still ahead in that game. Warren also pitched 1 1/3 scoreless innings in a close game in the finale against the Rangers. Warren’s season ended with allowing an insurance run to the Nationals on the final day of the season thanks to a walk and back-to-back singles.

Sean Manaea started that final game of the season and it was the worst start of his three outings in the final two weeks. He gave up five runs on seven hits, including two solo homers in six innings of work, striking out three batters and walking one. He took the loss to finalize his record at 6-8 on the season. His other two starts were better, however. He earned the win in the series opener in Texas, posting a quality start by giving up three runs—only two of them earned—on three hits in six innings of work. He struck out nine Rangers hitters and walked only two. Manaea was also the starter in the extra-inning loss to the Orioles and pitched well, but that game was ultimately blown by the bullpen. Manaea gave up two runs on four hits in 5 1/3 innings of work, striking out six batters and walking none. The two runs came on two solo homers—Manaea’s bugaboo in 2026.

Nate Lavender appeared in relief of Manaea both against the Orioles and in Texas. He followed Warren by pitching 1 2/3 scoreless innings to earn his tenth hold of the season and was proceeded by Senga, who coughed up the lead. Lavender earned another hold in Texas for a scoreless seventh inning in relief of Manaea with two strikeouts. Sandwiched between those two outings was the only run Lavender gave up in his final five appearances of the season, but ultimately it did not cost the Mets as they had built sufficient cushion at that point. Lavender gave up a solo homer to Derek Hill in the seventh that brought the Phillies within three, but otherwise recorded five outs without incident. Lavender also appeared twice in the Nationals series on back-to-back days. In the messy series opener, Lavender was in fact the only Mets pitcher to not be scored upon; he pitched a 1-2-3 eighth inning with a strikeout. The next day, Lavender earned his twelfth and final hold of the season with a scoreless seventh inning.

Lavender was followed in the season’s penultimate game by Devin Williams, who was activated from the injured list on September 22 when Scott was placed on the IL. Williams pitched a scoreless eighth inning to protect the lead for Jonah Tong. Williams also pitched the eighth inning in the second game of the Rangers series, earning a hold for a 1-2-3 frame complete with a strikeout. Though it was only two appearances in meaningless games for the Mets, it was at least a nice demonstration that Williams is healthy heading into next season.

That appearance by Williams in Texas came in relief of Nolan McLean, who along with teammate Carson Benge was making his own case for Rookie of the Year votes. McLean earned the win in that game in Texas—his twelfth of the season. He gave up just two runs on three hits over seven innings of work, striking out five and walking one. McLean unfortunately took the loss in his other start against the Phillies, but that was through no fault of his own; the Mets were shut out that day, so him giving up one run was enough for him to be handed the unlucky L in deGromian fashion. In that outing, he did give up seven hits, but limited the damage to just the one run in six innings of work. He struck out five batters and walked three in that outing.

Tobias Myers pitched two innings in relief of McLean against the Phillies and allowed two insurance runs. Only one of those two runs was earned, but ultimately both were meaningless as the Mets failed to score at all. Myers’ return to the big leagues in the final stretch of the season has been a pleasant surprise. That outing against the Phillies was Myers’ only bump in the road in the final two weeks. He turned around and pitched a scoreless ninth inning to close out the victory against those same Phillies two days later and then finished his season with a scoreless ninth to tie a bow on the Saturday win over the Nationals.

In addition to Williams, Cionel Pérez was activated from the injured list after dealing with a forearm strain. He replaced Cameron Weston on the roster, who does not appear on the meter because he did not get into a game. Pérez earned a hold for recording two outs in the victory over the Phillies on Beltran Day in his first outing back. He then pitched a scoreless ninth inning following McLean and Williams to polish off the Mets’ 7-2 victory over the Rangers in Arlington. He then appeared in the opening game of the Nationals series and again in the final game of the season. Like pretty much everybody else, he allowed a run in the bullpen game against the Nationals, but bounced back with a scoreless eighth inning with two strikeouts on Sunday to finish off the season.

Justin Hagenman was the bulk guy in that ill-fated bullpen game to open the series in DC and though his line wasn’t perfect, he pitched well. He gave up just one run on five hits in four innings of work with two strikeouts. The one run came in the form of a solo homer off of the bat of Dylan Crews. Hagenman is another guy who earned a moral victory in September by proving he is now healthy and can be an option for the Mets as they evaluate their pitching staff in 2027.

Speaking of guys who have solidified themselves as an option for the 2027 Mets, Zac Thornton finished his rookie season with a strong 3.42 ERA in 84 1/3 total innings of work across 15 starts. He pitched well in his final two starts of the year, putting up a quality start against the Phillies in a Mets victory to even his record to 5-5 on the year. In that outing, he yielded two runs on five hits in six innings of work, striking out four batters and walking one. He took a tough luck loss to fall one game under .500 for the season in his final start of the year, but that was more due to lack of run support than anything else. Thornton gave up two runs on four hits in five innings of work against the Rangers, striking out four batters and walking one. A go-ahead, two-run homer to Josh Jung in the bottom of the first inning was Thornton’s one mistake and unfortunately he paid for it as the Mets were blanked from the first inning onward.

That’s a wrap on the pitchers for 2026—another record-breaking year for number of pitchers used in a season, making the meters quite a whirlwind. As always, I appreciate the community taking the time to read and engage with these fun meter posts every season!

In our Wild Card prediction thread, two people got three of the four series correct: Ritzkiss and Rancy. In the ‘how many games will the series go, Rancy was off by just two games, so he’s the winner. I’d like to say there is a prize, but you have my congratulations Rancy. That and $2.95 will get you a coffee at Starbucks. Not a fancy coffee, but a coffee.

If you are wondering about the picture above, I’m just absolutely amazed that anyone would celebrate anything with Budweiser beer.

Tomorrow the Division Series start, they are a best of five. There are four games tomorrow:

• White Sox @ Guardians: 1:00 Eastern start time. White Sox list TBD. Guardians have Parker Messick (12-9, 2.56 ERA).
• Braves @ Dodgers: 4:00 Eastern. Both teams list TBD.
• Yankees @ Rays: 6:30 Eastern. Gerrit Cole (10-9m 3.61) vs.Drew Rasmussen (16-5, 2.68).
• Padres @ Brewers: 8:30 Eastern. TBD vs. Jacob Misiorowski (16-5, 1.80).

Sunday we have the NLDS games at 4:00 Eastern (Padres @ Brewers) and 8:00 Eastern (Braves @ Dodgers).

Monday it is the ALDS games. 5:00 Eastern (White Sox @ Brewers) and 8:00 Eastern (Yankees @ Rays).

So make your predictions. Let’s just do winner and number of games.

I’ll take the White Sox in 5 games, because it is hard to beat a team backed by the Pope.

Dodgers in four. I’ll be cheering for the Braves, but shutting off the sound when that chant starts.

Yankees in five. I’ll cheer for the Rays.

Brewers in five.

LOS ANGELES — The Dodgers set their trade deadline sights on one big target and landed him in Tarik Skubal. The two-time Cy Young Award winner will get the call to start Game 1 of the National League Division Series on Saturday at Dodger Stadium against the Atlanta Braves.

Fabian Ardaya at The Athletic was first to report Skubal getting the call in Game 1.

Skubal started two Games 1 with the Detroit Tigers, and in six postseason starts over 2024-25 has a 2.04 ERA with 56 strikeouts against five unintentional walks in 39 2/3 innings, and has lasted at least six innings in all six starts.

When the Dodgers acquired Skubal from the Tigers on August 2, president of baseball operations noted the team’s singular focus at this year’s trade deadline.

“We were of the mind to be aggressive for one player, and fortunately we were able to line up,” Friedman said at the time. “As we’ve talked about a lot, whenever there’s a star-level player available who can really shift championship odds, those are the moments we’ll be more aggressive.”

Yoshinobu Yamamoto started Game 1 of the 2024 NLDS, and is coming off one of the best postseasons in MLB history, 5-1 with a 1.45 ERA in 37 1/3 innings. That included consecutive complete games in the NLCS and World Series, and he won all three of his appearances in the Fall Classic, including getting the final eight outs of Game 7 one day after starting and pitching six innings to win Game 6.

Blake Snell has five career starts in Game 1, including twice for the Dodgers last year in the wild card round and NLCS. Tyler Glasnow, with four career Game 1 starts, rounds out the rotation.

“To be honest, we can kind of really put all four guys in a hat, and run them out there,” manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday.

“Our pitching staff is pretty special, in my opinion,” first baseman Freddie Freeman said. “We got four number ones rolling out there, with Yama, Snell, Skubs, and Glasnow.”

Skubal has been just about everything the Dodgers could have wanted when they traded for the two-time Cy Young Award winner on August 2. In 10 starts with Los Angeles, the left-hander had a 2.61 ERA and 2.84 xERA with 70 strikeouts and 13 walks in 62 innings.

By the time you’re reading this, the Atlanta Braves will either be on the plane to Los Angeles to face off against the Dodgers in the NLDS or already touched down in the City of Angels to meet their opponents in the Divisional Series. Either way, it’s certainly been a whirlwind 24-hour period for the Braves where they essentially had to lock back in after a night of rapturous celebrations following their big victory in the winner-take-all Game 3 of the Wild Card Series against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Despite the quick turnaround, the Braves are still feeling upbeat and positive and are looking forward to what awaits them in LA. In a press conference call earlier today, asked manager Walt Weiss about what he’s looking forward to when it comes to challenging the two-time defending World Series champions and he continued to reiterate just how good this team has been in 2026 when the odds are stacked up against them.

“You can call it David and Goliath and all that stuff, but you’ve got to go through the Dodgers if you want to get to the top of the mountain. You’ve got to go through them at some point. So it’s going to be a great challenge for us,” said Weiss. “Like I said all along, our guys have responded really well to some really tough challenges this year. This will just be another one. I’m expecting our guys are going to step up again.”

The catching duo of Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy also took questions in the conference call and they both appeared to be focused on the task at hand. “Having some success against them early is always nice. We’ve seen some of their pitchers, seen some of their arms, and gone up against a good team. So I think it’s just kind of going out there and playing our game and knowing that, if we play our game, that we can compete with them and beat them,” responded Baldwin when he was asked about what the focus needed to be on ahead of this series.

Murphy was also pretty confident as well — he stated that his confidence level is a “10” when he was asked about it and when he was asked about what he respected most about the Dodgers, he kept his response respectful while still expressing confidence in himself and his surrounding squad.

“I think they pitch pretty well. Obviously they have some phenomenal hitters in their lineup, but I would say we have the same strengths,” stated Murphy. “At the end of the day, it’s baseball. We’ve got to win 3 games out of 5, and I’ll take us over everybody.”

Meanwhile, we did get some updates about various Braves players who are currently missing due to injury and when we can expect them to come back. I asked Weiss about Bryce Elder’s status after throwing the Live BP and while Elder won’t be eligible for the NLDS roster, Weiss appears bullish on Elder’s chances of being available for the NLCS if the Braves can get past the Dodgers. “We’re hoping, if we advance, that Bryce is in that conversation,” explained Weiss. “He looks really good. It’s pretty amazing how far along he is after his surgery. We’re hoping to get through this round, and then that’ll be a topic of discussion.”

The same goes for Martín Pérez, who Weiss also stated that they’re hoping that they can get him back for the NLDS. Meanwhile, Lane Thomas was seen taking BP before both Game 2 and Game 3 of the Wild Card Series and the good news there is that Thomas could potentially be in line to return for the Dodgers series as a valuable right-handed hitting option.

“There’s a chance for Lane. He’s responded very well to treatment. We’ve upped his workload, and he’s passed all the tests,” said Weiss when he was asked about Lane’s chances of getting onto the NLDS roster. “He’s certainly in the conversation for this next round, which would be great because he’s a threat against left-handed pitching, and the Dodgers are loaded with left-handed pitching in the rotation and in the bullpen.”

There was also some good news concerning Tyler Mahle after he had what turned out to be a pretty big injury scare before Game 2 of the Wild Card Series. Apparently his abdominal is feeling good and he should be fine for the NLDS.

“Tyler’s doing well. The fact that he felt that thing in the first inning and ended up throwing seven innings that day and seven really, really good innings makes me feel good about the abdominal thing that he felt,” stated Weiss. “Getting treatment for it and all that stuff, but we feel pretty good about Tyler.”

The Braves still have some work to do in order to formulate a pitching plan that could once again neutralize the Dodgers lineup but as you can imagine, the team as a whole is feeling prety confident about their chances to not just do that but to perform at an all-around high level. The next step of the Postseason is here and while the Braves have a massive challenge ahead of them, Sean Murphy is right when he says that this team can hang with anybody.

Happy Friday one and all.

The Arizona Cardinals are traveling to New Jersey to take on the New York Giants on Sunday morning, let’s not forget about that, as Barry so graciously spelled out for us:

The early game, the backup quarterback, the Arizona Cardinals being road favorites? None of it makes you comfortable ahead of this one.

Let’s take a look at some of the best bets for the Arizona Cardinals matchup with the New York Giants, with odds courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Jacoby Brissett Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+122)

One thing we know, the Cardinals are going to throw the football. So, take Brissett’s overs as long as you can, it won’t always hit, but they are usually a plus value and the Giants have allowed 2+ passing touchdowns in two of their three games.

Cam Skattebo and Jeremiyah Love to Combine for 200+ Rushing Yards (+600)

The Cardinals ability to stop the run, and the Giants ability to stop the run are both bad. So, let’s take a big swing on this one, as a combined number could be anything, but we can hope Love has his full breakout and if you bet it, that the Cardinals continue to struggle to stop the run.

Cam Skattebo, Jeremiyah Love, and Trey McBride to Combine for 4+ TDs (+550)

I am not sure how the Giants will do on offense, but if they can move the ball, it’ll be against the Arizona Cardinals. Meanwhile, again between Trey McBride and Jeremiyah Love, I want to see one of them have a big day.

Arizona Cardinals -2.5 (-106) and over 43.5 total points (-118) parlay for +230

I think the Cardinals get their second win of the season, they are 2-0 against the Harbaugh’s and that they score and the Giants move the ball better than they have with Jameis Winston.

Cardinals 27
Giants 24

When the Dodgers acquired left-hander Tarik Skubal at the trade deadline, they expected him to be a big part of their postseason plans. But they didn’t necessarily pencil him in as their Game 1 starter.

After mulling over their options this week, the Dodgers are expected to announce Friday that Skubal will take the mound in Game 1 of the National League Division Series, confirmed a person with knowledge of the situation who was not authorized to speak publicly.

Their plans for a sweltering 1 p.m. start Saturday against the Braves were first reported by the Athletic.

The rest of the Dodgers’ rotation order was not immediately clear, but right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto — who had seemed a strong option for Game 1 after his World Series heroics last year — pitched to batters during the Dodgers’ workout Wednesday. If he takes his usual five days of rest, that would line him up to pitch Game 3 in Atlanta on Tuesday. So, left-hander Blake Snell could pitch Game 2 Sunday at Dodger Stadium.

“To be honest, we can kind of really put all four guys in a hat and run them out there,” manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday. “But I think there is going to be more thought behind it.”

Skubal, who the Dodgers acquired from the Tigers for three prospects, has posted a 2.61 ERA in 10 starts for Los Angeles. He finished his regular season with a gem against the Giants last week: seven three-hit innings on just 75 pitches.

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This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

Last week, Alex Vesia made sure to take in the scene.

A full month of baseball, he and the Dodgers hope, still lies ahead this October. Their game last Thursday was nothing more than a regular-season home finale, with the club set to open its postseason back at Dodger Stadium on Saturday in the National League Division Series against the Atlanta Braves.

Still, Vesia couldn’t help but feel sentimental as he traversed the clubhouse that afternoon, and sat out in the bullpen with several longtime teammates that night.

For the last six years, this has been home for the left-handed reliever.

As a pending free agent this offseason, it might not be much longer.

“I sent a text in our family group chat that was like, ‘I potentially could have played my last home game as a Dodger, in the regular season,’” Vesia recounted to the California Post this week. “And it was just like, damn.”

Vesia might not be one of the biggest stars of the Dodgers’ modern-day dynasty. But few players have been more important, or reliable, in their ascent to superteam status.

Since arriving as a little-known trade acquisition in February 2021 (acquired from the Miami Marlins, along with Kyle Hurt, in exchange for Dylan Floro), Vesia has been a stalwart in the Dodgers’ bullpen.

He has made 367 appearances for the club, a whopping 150 more than any other Dodgers pitcher in that span (Evan Phillips is next closest at 232). He has posted a 2.66 ERA and 5.7 wins above replacement, according to Fangraphs (ranking fifth among all left-handed relievers in the majors in that latter category during that period).

It was a rise that required personal reinvention, with the former 17th-round draft pick raising his arm slot and cultivating one of baseball’s most deceptive fastballs with the help of the organization’s highly-touted pitching department.

It was a road full of glorious highs, including two World Series championships, and gut-wrenching lows –– both on the field, like when he was optioned to the minor leagues for part of 2023, but especially off of it, after the unimaginable loss he and his wife experienced last October when their newborn daughter passed away during the Fall Classic.

That ordeal has changed the 30-year-old, in ways he still can’t fully verbalize yet.

“It’s been an extremely hard year,” Vesia said, with a set of pink-accented gloves honoring his late daughter resting in his locker behind him.

It has also altered his perspective during what might be his final ride in Los Angeles, making every little moment something to cherish ahead of an uncertain future.

“I’ve learned, especially over the last year, there’s certain moments in life that you need to stop and take it in,” he explained.

Vesia, of course, would love to be back with the Dodgers next year, and beyond. His consistent production and energetic mound presence have made him something of a fan favorite at this point; so much so, a local artist recently unveiled a mural of him in Burbank.

“I’m very thankful to have spent the last six years here,” he said. “I’ve learned so much about myself and the game, just what it takes to be a champion. That’s really, really, really special.”

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Still, this lockout-threatened winter raises even more unknowns than usual.

Thus, even though he noted that “there’s still so much in front of us” this postseason, Vesia has allowed some nostalgia to creep in too.

“Even with Miggy and his sort of goodbye to baseball,” Vesia said, referencing likely-to-retire teammate Miguel Rojas, “some of the stuff that he has said about this team, I also resonate with. Like, it hits me too.”

Entering this October, Vesia’s bonds in the clubhouse and, especially, the bullpen –– a group he was first to nickname “The Dawgs” during their heroic contributions to the team’s 2024 title –– have never felt stronger.

Since the beginning of the season, he has been effusive in describing the ways they have supported him in the wake of last year’s tragedy.

In recent weeks, he has felt the unit’s performance collectively click into place, too, with the Dodgers’ relief corps emerging as a potentially underrated strength in their bid for a World Series three-peat.

“It was just like, guys got out of certain innings where … you could just see them start to trust their stuff,” Vesia said. “It’s definitely exciting. I think our guys in the bullpen are catching strides at the right time.”

Per usual, Vesia has been a key part of that resurgence. He posted a 2.64 ERA with 74 strikeouts in 58 innings on the season. More importantly, he improved his previously faulty command down the stretch, walking just one batter in 11 appearances during September.

Now, he’s hoping it sets up a storybook ending to what has been an emotional campaign –– and potentially his impactful Dodgers career.

“The way I view things are a little bit different. The way I go about my business is a little bit different. The way I’m motivated is a little bit different,” he said, while reflecting back on a traumatic 12 months that have made his connections in the organization all the more meaningful. 

“Ultimately, I know the job that I have to do,” he added. “But yeah, my motivation for this month is different.”

LOS ANGELES — The Dodgers won a championship in 2024 with a decimated starting rotation and dominant bullpen, then flipped the script with a stellar rotation buoying a shaky bullpen to win another title in 2025. This year the Dodgers might have melded the two heading into October.

“We have a lot of really talented arms,” general manager Brandon Gomes said Tuesday. “I think this is about as deep of a pitching staff as we’ve ever had. There’s a lot of really good options to work through as a group.”

For now, we’ll focus on the rotation, which looks just as strong this year as it did last October, even though Shohei Ohtani hasn’t pitched since July 3 and will not pitch this postseason. The Dodgers filled that slot with a two-time Cy Young Award winner, trading for Tarik Skubal on August 2.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto was again the rock of the starting rotation, making every start for the second year in a row. Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow each missed multiple months with a long injured-list stint in season, then returned with enough of a runway to get ready for October. All four put up solid numbers this season.

“To be honest, we can kind of really put all four guys in a hat, and run them out there,” manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday.

Last year, Yamamoto, Snell, Ohtani, and Glasnow combined to start all 17 postseason games, and put up a collective 2.55 ERA in 113 innings, with 127 strikeouts and a 28.5-percent strikeout rate. All four of them pitched in Game 7 of the World Series, including Yamamoto getting the final eight outs one day after winning Game 6 as the starter. Yamamoto last October pitched the Dodgers’ first two postseason compete games since 1988, and Blake Snell had starts of eight and seven innings as well.

Quality starts are a bit crude, but criticism tends to focus on the minimum requirements — at least six innings, with no more than three earned runs allowed. But across MLB this regular season, teams went 1,094-484 (.693) in games when they got a quality start, with a collective 1.74 ERA from the starters in those games.

This season, the Dodgers led the majors with 83 quality starts, eight more than the next-best team, the Philadelphia Phillies. Those 83 quality starts by the Dodgers this year were their most since 2015, when they got 95 quality starts from a rotation that included the second- and third-place finishers in National League Cy Young Award voting (Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw). They were 60-23 (.723) when getting a quality start in 2026.

Dodgers starters last postseason had 10 quality starts, more than any pitching staff since the 2013 Detroit Tigers. Those 10 quality starts in 17 games were one more than the Dodgers had in their previous five postseasons combined, totaling 53 games.

Last postseason, the Dodgers won all 10 of the games in which they received a quality start, with zero or one run allowed by the starter in seven of those games. Two of those quality starts were by Ohtani, but he’s replaced in the rotation by Skubal, who last postseason posted three quality starts in his three tries, totaling 36 strikeouts and four runs allowed in his 20 2/3 innings for the Detroit Tigers.

“Watching Tarik Skubal pitch in the playoffs last year was must-see TV. I was in awe, watching the energy, the dominance he exhibited there,” Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said in August after trading for Skubal. “I can’t wait to see it on our club.”

Welcome to the 2026 edition of Ranking the Rockies, where we take a look back at every player to log playing time for the Rockies in 2026. The purpose of this list is to provide a snapshot of the player in context. The “Ranking” is an organizing principle that’s drawn from Baseball Reference’s WAR (rWAR). It’s not something the staff debated. We’ll begin with the player with the lowest rWAR and end up with the player with the highest.

No. 51, Jordan Beck (-0.9 rWAR)

I was genuinely expecting a big season from Jordan Beck.

Maybe not a breakout into stardom, but another step forward after a 2025 season in which Beck received an extended opportunity in the major leagues. He played 148 games and hit .258/.317/.416 with 16 home runs and 19 stolen bases. There were still holes in his offensive game, particularly the strikeouts, but there was enough power and athleticism to believe he could establish himself as part of the Rockies’ outfield moving forward.

His path through the organization seemed to reflect that progress. Beck was briefly optioned to Triple-A in April 2025, returned less than two weeks later and essentially remained an everyday major-league player from there.

A year later, the path reversed.

Beck opened 2026 with the Rockies, struggled, landed on the injured list with a left hamstring strain and, when his rehab assignment ended in late June, was activated and immediately optioned to Albuquerque. By the time he returned in August, his role had changed.

The numbers

Almost nothing went right. Beck hit .200/.261/.291 in 63 games with one home run. His major-league power disappeared, his already-high strikeout rate climbed, and his approach at the plate became increasingly exploitable.

What actually happened

Beck showed some early flashes. On April 14 in Houston, he got a 2-0 four-seam fastball from Colton Gordon and drove it 359 feet to right field.

It was his only home run of the season.

Six days later came his best game of the year. With Dodgers left-hander Justin Wrobleski starting at Coors Field, Warren Schaeffer moved Beck into the leadoff spot. Beck entered the night hitting .122 and immediately roped a double down the third-base line at 98.7 mph. He would then score on a Brenton Doyle double.

He added a check-swing single in the fifth, then put together perhaps his best plate appearance of the night in the seventh. Beck battled Wrobleski for nine pitches, fouled off three pitches with two strikes, worked the count full and lined a curveball to left field at 96.7 mph for a single.

He finished 3-for-4, with a run and an RBI. The Rockies lost the game 12-3.

Nine days later, Beck was again leading off against a left-hander, only this time everything looked different.

The Rockies battered Cincinnati for 13 runs and 15 hits on April 29. Beck was the only Colorado starter who didn’t get a hit, finishing 0-for-6 with two strikeouts while grounding into a double play.

His first plate appearance also offered an early look at a problem that would follow him throughout the season: after fouling off a fastball, Beck swung through consecutive sweepers from Brandon Williamson, the second finishing down and away for strike three.

There were good games. There were bad games. There just was never a run of the good ones.

The season took a larger turn in May when Colorado placed Beck on the 10-day injured list with a left hamstring strain. He began a rehab assignment with Albuquerque on June 23 and was activated five days later, but not back onto the Rockies’ active roster. Colorado instead optioned him to Triple-A, where he remained until his Aug. 3 recall.

Beck still had flashes after returning. On Aug. 25 in Washington, he went 2-for-4 against left-hander Andrew Alvarez, including a two-strike curveball he lined into center at 97.4 mph.

Beck later scored on a wild pitch, giving Colorado a 3-1 lead in a game the Rockies won by that score. It was a small glimpse of why left-handed pitching remained the obvious place for Colorado to keep looking for offense from him.

By late September, though, even the good at-bats had trouble turning into anything sustained. On Sept. 24 against Arizona, Beck struck out in each of his first two trips against left-hander Eduardo Rodríguez before putting together one of his better plate appearances of the afternoon in the sixth.

Beck fell behind 1-2, fouled off two pitches, worked the count full and lined a 91.6 mph four-seamer into left field at 103.9 mph for a single.

His next plate appearance lasted three pitches.

Dennis Santana threw Beck three consecutive sliders. Beck swung at all three.

He missed the first.

He foul-tipped the second.

And he chased the third down and away for strike three.

Kevin Ginkel struck him out on another slider down and away in the ninth, leaving Beck 1-for-5 with four strikeouts.

Two days later he doubled, and the following day he singled, and that was it. Beck finished the season exactly on the Mendoza Line at .200.

By then, the bigger change was how the Rockies were using him. Beck appeared in 33 of their final 50 games and started 26, with those opportunities increasingly tilted toward left-handed pitching.

The split made that understandable: He hit just .091/.157/.156 in 83 plate appearances against right-handers, compared with .295/.351/.409 against lefties. But even the favorable matchup wasn’t producing consistent results by the end. After returning from Albuquerque, Beck struck out 21 times in 56 plate appearances against lefties — 37.5% of the time.

His defensive role was fairly narrow, too. Beck’s home was in the corner outfield, where his arm remained the most obvious defensive tool, averaging 88.4 mph. On Sept. 5 against St. Louis, he charged a ball in right field and threw Thomas Saggese out at the plate, with replay confirming the call.

The overall defensive value wasn’t quite as strong as the arm, with Statcast grading Beck at -2 Outs Above Average.

By the end of the season, Beck was no longer functioning as an everyday outfielder. He had become a matchup-dependent corner outfielder who also received opportunities off the bench.

The strike zone kept getting bigger

The biggest change in Beck’s offensive profile wasn’t simply that he struck out more. It was that he started swinging at far more pitches he didn’t need to hit.

His strikeout rate did rise, from 29.6% in 2025 to 31.7% in 2026, but that increase alone doesn’t explain how much his production fell. His bat speed was still there, too, ticking up slightly from 73.2 mph to 73.9 mph.

What changed much more dramatically was his swing decision-making.

Pitchers didn’t radically reinvent the way they attacked Beck. The overall pitch mix remained fairly similar to 2025 outside of an increase in changeup usage, and the location profile wasn’t dramatically different either.

In 2025, 23% of the pitches Beck saw landed in Statcast’s Chase region, outside the edges of the strike zone. In 2026, it was 24%. Beck’s response to those pitches changed dramatically: His swing rate in that region climbed from 22% to 36%.

The same thing happened around the edges of the plate. His swing rate in Statcast’s Shadow region jumped from 53% to 63%, while his overall chase rate climbed from 27.4% to 38.0%.

Pitchers didn’t need to completely change how they attacked Beck. He was increasingly willing to expand the zone himself.

That was only part of the problem. When you look at how Beck performed against specific pitch types, another piece of the decline comes into focus: He wasn’t doing nearly as much damage against fastballs, particularly four-seamers.

Breaking pitches weren’t suddenly a new weakness. Beck’s production against them was fairly similar to 2025. Fastballs were different. He slugged .481 against them in 2025 and just .299 in 2026, while his slugging percentage against four-seamers fell from .521 to .282.

That matters because Beck wasn’t simply missing everything pitchers threw in the strike zone. His swing rate on pitches in the heart of the plate was exactly the same in both seasons at 73%, while his contact rate on pitches inside the zone actually improved slightly from 76.9% to 79.3%.

The contact just wasn’t nearly as dangerous.

His barrel rate fell from 9.6% to 3.7%, his hard-hit rate dropped from 38.5% to 32.1% and his expected slugging percentage fell from roughly .395 to .293.

So Beck was dealing with problems on both ends of the at-bat. He was chasing more pitches he didn’t need to hit, and when pitchers did come back into the zone with something hittable, he wasn’t punishing them the way he had a year earlier.

A hitter can survive a lot of strikeouts if the swings that connect produce damage. In 2025, Beck did enough damage to make the flaws work.

In 2026, he kept the flaws and lost the damage.

Where does Beck stand heading into 2027?

Beck is still only 25 years old, the athleticism and bat speed remain, and he is only one season removed from hitting 16 home runs in 148 games. Seven homers in 26 games with Albuquerque also suggest the physical power hasn’t disappeared.

But if he is going to reestablish himself as more than a matchup-dependent player, simply cutting down on the strikeouts probably isn’t enough. He needs to shrink the zone again while rediscovering the damage he did against hittable pitches in 2025.

That leaves Beck in a very different position than he occupied a year ago. He feels like a realistic change-of-scenery candidate this winter, young enough and with enough previous major-league success that another organization could look at the swing decisions, the platoon splits and the remaining physical tools and believe there is still something to unlock.

The Rockies could reach the same conclusion and give him another opportunity themselves.

I expected Jordan Beck to take another step forward in 2026.

Instead, he had moments, but never momentum.

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The Padres face the league’s winningest team in the Division Series, but don’t call them underdogs.

It seemed unlikely the Padres would ever make it this far. They closed out June with an eight-game losing streak and limped into the All-Star break with a .500 record. That’s something of a death sentence in the NL West, where the juggernaut Dodgers demand perfection to unseat them at the top. The Padres playoff odds fell as low as 7.4% in the final week of July. Who would or should be fired seemed like it’d be the only relevant conversation in October.

Fast forward to Wednesday: The Padres not only pulled off a convincing sweep of the Cubs in the Wild Card round, they were favorites to do so. Their 41-18 record over the final 10 weeks of the season was the best in the majors. In fact, it was 2 1/2 games better than the next best team, the Brewers, who they now face in the Division Series on Saturday. 

But it’s not just a vastly improved record. By WAR, a statistical stand in for “true talent,” no team was better in the second half than the Padres. They posted 21.9 WAR, narrowly besting the Cubs (21.8), Dodgers (21.5), Red Sox (21.4) and Brewers (20.2). It’s one of the great team-level turnarounds this century.

The surge in San Diego isn’t really too complicated. The Padres in the first half scored the fewest runs in all of baseball and posted a 90 wRC+. In the second half, they scored the third most runs and posted a 119 wRC+. With the Cubs out of the picture, the Padres arguably have the best lineup remaining in the postseason field.

It starts with the stars. Fernando Tatís Jr. has been on a torrid pace since a bizarre slump to begin the season. He struggled through May, hitting just .268/.345/.307 without a homer in his first 268 plate appearances. But he was absolutely crushing the ball at the same time, running a hard hit rate as high as 60%. The issue wasn’t so much the contact he was making but where it was going — either into the ground or toward the opposite field. On May 29, Tatís hit his first home run. He proceeded to slug 24 more before the season was up, with a slash line of .303/.368/.549 (153 wRC+). His 5.0 fWAR since that first homer was second best in the majors, behind only Pete Crow-Armstrong. Just as the Padres might have the best lineup remaining in the postseason, Tatís might be the best player.

What changed for him? We can see in the plot below that Tatís shifted his stance in the box, from a closed-and-wide stance early to a more open-and-upright stance the rest of the year. Again, he was already making lots of hard contact, but after the change, his contact was more likely to travel in the air and to the pull side. It’s a lot easier to hit home runs when a batter aims for the shallowest part of the park, and that seemed to be the difference for Tatís this summer.

Jackson Merrill struggles were even more pronounced early in 2026. Through June, Merrill hit .213/.271/.343 (72 wRC+). Since then, he’s hit .299/.338/.544 (141 wRC+). Unlike Tatís, there isn’t a clean narrative as to what changed. His hard hit rate has been strong all year. His strikeout hasn’t really changed, and he’s actually walking a bit less these days. It’s possible he was simply getting unlucky early, and the cyclical nature of baseball has shifted back in his favor. Regardless, the Padres with Merrill and Tatís have one of the great one-two punches in the majors, especially when you consider both players are solid defenders and great base runners.

But it’s more than just one great duo. Ty France seemingly out of nowhere had his best-ever season with a 141 wRC+, after bouncing around on waivers the last two years. Manny Machado hasn’t necessarily been a great hitter all around, but he still hit 30 homers and played excellent defense at third base. Even their platoons seem to be clicking, with guys like Samad Taylor, Austin Hays, and Dustin Harris playing well in limited roles. From top to bottom, things are going really well for the Padres lineup.

On the mound, well, it’s a good thing the Padres have a great lineup. The best thing I can say is they might be better served in these short series. There isn’t a ton of depth here. Michael King has dominated at times throughout his career, and in fact, we saw him spin one of his best-ever outings against the Cubs earlier in the week. But he’s not really a “true ace” more than simply the best starter in San Diego. From there, Nick Pivetta was really impressive this year, albeit in only eight starts — none more than five innings — after missing most of the season with an elbow injury. Then there’s Walker Buhler, who the Padres hope can find his former playoff dominance, even if he’s largely struggled since elbow surgery in 2022. There are other starters who could get a nod in the NLDS, but it’s worth emphasizing those are the three best the Padres have to offer at the moment. Starting pitching is far from a strength.

The good news for the Padres is they happen to have a lockdown bullpen behind them — without a doubt the best in the majors. Everyone knows about Mason Miller, who just finished one of the great reliever seasons in history. His fastball averages 101.4 mph, his slider is unhittable, and he strikes out half the batters he faces. Adrian Morejon serves as something of a 1b option for the Padres, as surely the best lefty reliever in the majors, generating tons of grounders with a heavy sinker and an invsi-ball changeup. One might even call Bradgley Rodriguez a third “one,” as the rare changeup-first pitcher. Honestly, I could just list the entire Padres bullpen: They are deep, varied, and highly effective all the way through.

They’re going to need to be against the Brewers in the NLDS. Milwaukee won 103 games this year as the winningest team in the majors for the second straight season. It was the first time in franchise history they’ve topped triple digits in the win column. Like the Padres, they have a great offense. Like the Padres, they have a great bullpen. But they also happen to have a great rotation and the league’s ace in Jacob Misiorowski. They’re the favorites in the series — and maybe the entire postseason — for a reason. To put it this way, the Padres with their surge have merely reached the level of the Brewers, who have been playing like this all season.

Still, this isn’t your standard 103-game winner versus 91-game winner, where the former is sure to bowl throughout the latter. The Padres are a very good team these days, and far better than their full-season record indicates. At the very least, either team would make a formidable opponent for the Dodgers in the NLCS, should they make it through Atlanta.

The Wild Card series against the Yankees was probably the worst way for the 2026 season to end. Everything that was a problem at any point – struggles to score runs, the bullpen, injuries – all happened at the same time and within a matter of minutes. Two games in a row ended the Red Sox season. This wasn’t the plan. As all the Sox players returned from the WBC to Fort Myers, many riding hot streaks, this looked like a team ready to rocket. Yes, there were questions entering the season. But there were answers that hadn’t been fully formed yet.

After the 2025 season, the Sox were desperate for infield help. Trevor Story, not a guarantee of health or success himself, since arriving in Boston, was coming off a tremendous year, his best for the Red Sox. The rest of the infield was a question mark. Third base was more-or-less vacant after Alex Bregman opted out. Second base was going to be a battle with the future potential of Marcelo Mayer as a leading contestant. First base? Triston Casas? Maybe? Catcher, using the more generous definition of infield, was a tandem based on Carlos Narváez hitting in 2025 and Connor Wong, who couldn’t hit at all. There were at least two guys, which was more than could be said about first base.

Craig Breslow looked at the free agent market. He looked at the trade market. He looked at his own farm system. And in two phases he built the roster that he would live or die with.

We know about phase one. Caleb Durbin was acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers. Willson Contreras was acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals. Isaiah Kiner-Falefa was signed to platoon (kinda) with Mayer.

On the free agent market, the Red Sox went in the opposite direction. The promise/hope was two bats. And they passed on Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette etc. Aside from Contreras there were no big bats.

What Durbin would share with Willson, besides become Mini Bowser to his Bowser, was control. Contreras was guaranteed to be in town through 2027 with an option for 2028. Durbin will not hit free agency until the 2030s. The same with Mayer. Ranger Suarez, on the other side of the ball, also was signed long-term.

As it would turn out Willson Contreras would not even sniff competition from Triston Casas, who would face a series of injuries that would cost him the season. Not that anyone was worried about having too many first basemen. Caleb Durbin would start off slow with the bat, glacial even, but provide solid defense. He’d go on to set a new career high in home runs while, likely, competing for a Gold Glove.

Marcelo Mayer would underperform and then get hurt. Carlos Narváez would revert to his reputation as a bat-second player. While Connor Wong would provide some offense in a bounce-back season, the catcher tandem as a whole was underwater.

Phase two would be at the deadline. With Durbin rounding into form as The Durbinator, Breslow and his team set their sights on second base and catcher. Turning Connelly Early into Curtis Mead gave them another second baseman with control for years to come. And while the sample size is small, Mead hit 17 home runs in just 87 games. Adding a 30-homer threat to second base would be a tremendous pillar of the offense. Mayer would be traded separately, Mead would get hurt, but the plan was in place.

Similarly, the massive all-in prospect trade for Adley Rutschman was for 2026 and 2027. Connor Wong isn’t a free agent until after the 2028 season so catcher is set for another year and they have time to evaluate Rutschman or find a replacement before 2028. For Breslow’s plan through this summer, when he didn’t know he’d be extended, that’s all that mattered. Build then best team for what could be his last season if they struggled.

Entering 2027 the Red Sox have two catchers. They have an entire starting infield, plus top prospect Franklin Arias. They have Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu (plus control of Jarren Duran, and Masataka Yoshida, and Kristian Campbell) in the outfield.

The rotation has Payton Tolle, Garrett Crochet, Ranger Suarez, and Jake Bennett. Boston holds an option on Sonny Gray that he can opt out of, but potentially the entire rotation is headed back for 2027. Starters 6-10 might be a concern, but for a healthy Opening Day major league roster, Breslow took care of that already.

We never actually got to see this team assembled together in 2026. Even if Curtis Mead came into the last game of the season while Garrett Crochet was on the mound, Roman was out. This year, unless there is a big trade to accommodate a move, the Hot Stove season won’t be the same. The roster is basically set. Did Breslow see the lockout as an obstacle? Maybe! He might have been thinking that teams would scramble to make moves before and after and he’d be set. For a team that was seeing it’s window open in 2025, it seems too intentional to put together the whole thing one year in with really only the Story to Arias transition as a big roster move to facilitate.

The performance of the team in 2026 was up and down, but overall we saw a number of good years from this group – Tolle, Abreu, Contreras, Rafaela, and Durbin all provide reasons to be optimistic. Roman Anthony had a good run around the hand injury. Six months off sure would be nice to let that heal. There’s reason to think 2027 can be fun. Maybe distributed a little better too.

Your Opening Day 2027 Boston Red Sox:

C: Rutschman, Wong

1: Contreras

2B: Mead, Sogard

SS: Story, Arias

3B: Durbin

OF: Roman, Rafaela, Abreu, Duran (if he’s not moved/non-tenderd), Campbell

DH: Yoshida