Category: MLB

Needing another arm for their beleaguered bullpen, the Phillies have recalled righthanded reliever Alex McFarlane to the majors.

McFarlane is on the older side for a rookie (25 years old) and has never pitched above the AA level (he was called up to the majors for one day in April but didn’t appear in a game), but there are reasons to be optimistic: He throws over 100 MPH and has performed well at Reading.

It seems like the Phillies will take advantage of the off day on Thursday to skip the problematic fifth starter spot the next time through their order. After that, if McFarlane looks better than the other relievers in the bullpen (not a high bar to clear), it’s possible that he may stick around.

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The New York Yankees are -120 favorites against the Pittsburgh Pirates in tonight's series opener at Yankee Stadium. 

My Pirates vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks expect the road team to take advantage of Ryan Weathers and his struggles limiting power on Monday, July 20. 

Who will win Pirates vs Yankees today: Pirates (+100)

The Pittsburgh Pirates hammer baseballs. That’s what they’re built to do. 

They are tied for 10th in homers and slot third in hard-hit rate against lefties despite Esmerlyn Valdez being new to the scene. They were built in a lab to exploit Ryan Weathers, who sits in the 14th percentile in barrel rate and 29th in hard-hit rate. 

The New York Yankees have power but struggle with discipline, owning the fifth-highest K% vs. righties in July. Braxton Ashcraft’s 96th percentile chase rate should play well.

Pittsburgh shouldn’t be even money. Bet to -115.

COVERS INTEL: The Pirates have hit homers on 17.1% of their fly balls over the last month, ranking second in the majors.

Pirates vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 8 (+100)

Yankee Stadium is the third-most favorable park for home run hitters, and both of these teams possess the power to capitalize.

The Pirates rank second in OPS this month, and their power is unlikely to be hindered given the abundance of hard contact Weathers concedes.

While Ashcraft is more likely to hold up, he ranks in the 32nd percentile in hard-hit rate allowed. He’s not exactly immune to power, and the Yankees are tied for seventh in homers in July.

The long balls should help push this game Over. Bet to -115.

Pirates vs Yankees weather

Temperatures in the low 80s are expected. The warm weather should allow for balls to carry a little further in what is already a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Pirates vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Pittsburgh +100 | New York -120
• Run line: Pittsburgh -1.5 (+165) | New York +1.5 (-200)
• Over/Under: Over 8.0 (+100) | Under 8.0 (-120)

Pirates vs Yankees trend

Pittsburgh has hit the Game Total Over in 30 of the last 45 games (+14.95 units, 30% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Yankees.

How to watch Pirates vs Yankees and game info

Pirates vs Yankees latest injuries

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The Guardians dropped the series finale in pathetic fashion to the Pittsburgh Pirates 7-1. I would estimate they made at least six obvious baserunning errors.

Stephen Vogt took responsibilty for this, placing the blame on the coaching staff:

Gabriel Arias was asked about his TOOTBLAN. He mumbled and so, apparently, his translator decided to do the same, because I can’t quite make out what either said. Maybe you can?

Things are especially dire for Kyle Manzardo right now. Overall, he has an 86 wRC+… which is bad enough. He has had one good month if we look deeper into things; from Opening Day to May 1st, he put up a 46 wRC+, from May 2nd to June 14th, he put up a 162 wRC+, and from June 16th to today, he has put up a 43 wRC+. Is that 162 wRC+ still in there? Or, is he more of this unplayable hitter? Are back issues having a big effect on his swing and his power disappearing? These are all questions to which we will never hear an answer, but the team desparately needs better production.

When Jose Ramirez returns… perhaps today… I will be very curious to see whom he replaces on the roster. I am ready for a Gabriel Arias DFA, but I think a Daniel Schneemann demotion is more likely. When Angel Martinez (who hit two doubles in Columbus yesterday) returns, I’d like to see him replace Petey Halpin and continue to allow Kahlil Watson try to work things out. But, either way on that is fine. I’d also like to see the team consider how best to promote Angel Genao. Is that to get him some outfield reps in Columbus? Is that to move Travis Bazzana to a more DH-only role while having him start to work on left field (Kwan to center) or even first base and getting Genao up to play second? I cannot tell you. But, I think Genao is starting to knock the door down.

Joe Ryan comes to town tonight for the Twins as the two teams begin a crucial four-game series! So, that’s fun. I’m sure the team that couldn’t hit Khristian Curtis will be able to hit Ryan.

AROUND MLB:
White Sox won, Twins and Tigers lost, and Red Sox won their 13th in a row.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (47-48) lost 4-3 (BOX SCORE)

Pecko started for Sugar Land and went 4 innings allowing 2 runs while striking out 4. After Sugar Land fell behind 3-0, the offense rallied in the 7th scoring 3 runs on a Diaz solo home run, Biggio RBI triple and a Loperfido RBI single. The game was tied going into the 9th but El Paso walked it off as Sugar Land fell 4-3.

Note: Biggio has a .901 OPS this season.

• Cavan Biggio, 1B: 2-for-4, R, 3B, RBI, BB, SB
• Jake Meyers, CF: 1-for-4, BB
• Joey Loperfido, RF: 1-for-4, RBI
• Shay Whitcomb, SS: 1-for-4, SB
• Edwin Diaz, 3B: 1-for-4, R, HR, RBI
• Tommy Sacco, C: 1-for-4, R, 2B

• Ethan Pecko, RHP: 4.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
• J.P. France, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• Sam Carlson, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
• Christian Roa, RHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
• Miguel Ullola, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Roddery Munoz, RHP: 0.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (42-48) won 4-3 (BOX SCORE)

The Hooks got on the board in the first inning on an Austin groundout. They picked up another run in the 3rd on a double steal. In the 4th, Encarnacion connected on a 2 run single to extend the lead. Hicks got the start and was solid allowing 2 runs over 6 innings while striking out 7. The pen allowed a run late but was able to hold on as the Hooks won 4-3.

Note: Hicks has 73 K over 80.1 innings this season.

• Yamal Encarnacion, 2B: 5-for-5, 2 R, 3B, RBI
• Trevor Austin, 3B: 0-for-3, RBI, 2 BB
• Jason Schiavone, C: 1-for-3, BB
• Joseph Sullivan, CF: 1-for-3, SB
• Tyler Whitaker, LF: 1-for-3, R, BB, 2 SB
• Max Holy, SS: 1-for-4, R, SB

• James Hicks, RHP: 6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K (WIN)
• Railin Perez, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
• Hudson Leach, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Jose Guedez, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K (SAVE)

A+: Asheville Tourists (32-57) won 6-3 (BOX SCORE)

Asheville got on the board in the 3rd inning on a Neyens RBI double. They got another run in the 4th inning on a wild pitch. Howard got the start and was solid tossing 4.2 scoreless innings with 3 strikeouts. The offense added 4 runs in the 7th inning on a Batista RBI single, a run on a wild pitch, a Frey RBI single and a Powell RBI double. Apker allowed a few runs in relief but the rest of the pen was solid as they closed out the 6-3 win.

Note: Huezo has 32 stolen bases this season.

• Justin Thomas, DH: 2-for-4, 2 R, SB
• Xavier Neyens, 3B: 1-for-3, 2B, RBI, 2 BB
• Ethan Frey, DH: 1-for-4, R, RBI, SB
• Caden Powell, LF: 1-for-4, 2B, RBI
• Anthony Huezo, CF: 1-for-4, 2 SB
• Zach Daudet, SS: 0-for-1, R, 3 BB, SB
• Freuddy Batista, C: 1-for-4, R, HR, RBI, SB

• Dylan Howard, RHP: 4.2 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
• Michael Cuevas, RHP: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 0 K (WIN)
• Garrett Apker, RHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
• Bryce Collins, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Jackson Wells, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K (SAVE)

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (44-44) lost 7-5 (BOX SCORE)

Smith started for the Woodpeckers but struggled allowing 4 runs over just one inning of work. Rosario allowed 2 runs and then Carrera pitched in relief but was solid allowing 1 run over 5 innings. The Woodpeckers rallied in the 9th scoring on a Vasquez RBI double, Wakefield RBI single, Ramirez RBI double and Alvarez 2 run double. Unfortunately the comeback fell short as the Woodpeckers fell 7-5.

Note: Alvarez has 21 doubles this season.

• Josh Wakefield, CF: 1-for-4, R, RBI, BB
• German Ramirez, 2B: 1-for-5, 2B, RBI
• Kevin Alvarez, DH: 1-for-4, 2B, 2 RBI
• Juan Sierra, LF: 1-for-4, R, 2B
• Yosweld Vasquez, 1B: 2-for-4, R, 2B, RBI
• Hector Salas, 2B: 1-for-4, R

• Aubrey Smith, RHP: 1.0 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 1 K
• Leomar Rosario, RHP: 2.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
• Jesus Carrera, RHP: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
• Ryan Mathiesen, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: OFF

CC: OFF

AV: OFF

FV: OFF

It is no secret that Craig Stammen has suffered through a rough first season as San Diego Padres manager. Yes, some of the obstacles associated with the job were expected. 

However, transitioning from the front office to the dugout without any minor or major league managerial experience has been an insurmountable leap. The hiring felt like a cost-saving move for the organization. The experiment with a novice field boss needs to end; the Padres have no other choice but to let Stammen go. 

More head-scratching decisions

Entering the first game of the second half against the Kansas City Royals, the Friars had 48 wins on the season, nine more than their opponents. 

But the Royals showed more passion after giving up three runs in the top of the 10th inning. In a nightmarish half-inning, the Royals went on to score four runs off Kyle Hart for an improbable victory. 

Why was your long man closing out the first game of the second half? The Padres were desperate to get back into the wild-card chase. In hindsight, the move made no sense. Stammen had set up relievers who were more familiar with closing out games if he did not want to use Mason Miller for two innings. Another wasted opportunity to gain ground on the leaderboard.

Padres lack energy and urgency

Baseball is an energy sport. Sometimes, a manager’s poor in-game decisions can sap all the energy from a team. No sense of urgency has plagued the Padres all season. Yes, you need talent to win, but if energy is missing in the clubhouse, then it will be tough to rally the team from a crushing defeat.

No question, team morale is low. Granted, the Friars exploded for 19 runs to salvage the final game of a weekend set against a team well below the .500 mark and sitting 13 games back in the AL Central. Stammen can be happy with Sunday’s results, but he cannot continue sabotaging his team’s momentum with baffling moves.

Stammen is a company man

Another troubling aspect is Stammen’s relationship with the media. He resorts to the “company line” when responding to questions. At times, Stammen robotically recites the front office’s talking points when discussing what took place in the game. Usually, he offers very little information for the fans to digest. 

Stammen rarely shares his feelings on what plagues the 2026 Padres. However, he needs to stop trying to convince the Friar Faithful that the lineup is not broken. Stammen’s coaching staff has failed to solve the puzzle of a stagnant offense, as the pieces lie everywhere. 

Currently, the Padres are ranked 29th in the majors, scoring 3.97 runs per game. The lineup has underperformed, but the talent gap is not that far from other major league clubs. 

Stammen cannot be blamed for all of the team’s struggles. He handled the implosion of the starting rotation as well as anyone could have expected. The lack of consistent pitching from the replacement starters has dragged the Friars into oblivion. 

A stagnant offense and inconsistent starting pitching have made for a long summer. Unfortunately, the Friars are riding out the remainder of the season to its miserable end. 

A managerial change is needed, just to put everyone in a better frame of mind.

After taking a sizeable hit by losing seven players to the MLB Draft and another (JR RHP Heath Andrews) to an undrafted free agent deal after the draft, NC State had an open spot on their 34-man limit for the 2027 roster. They filled that spot… with three players. Hey, spring roster limits sound like a 2027 problem to me.

Outfielder Connor Clark will be joining the Wolfpack as a senior after spending his first three years at DII University of Texas at Tyler. A three-year starter for the Patriots with 137 career starts under his belt, Clark helped lead the program to back-to-back DII College World Series appearances in 2025 and 2026. The 5’10, 180 lbs righty was a Lone Star Conference 3rd Team selection 2025 and a 2nd Team selection in 2026.

For his career, Clark his .336/.466/.490, 25 2B, 15 HR, 16.0 BB%, 12.1 K%, 56-69 SB, including a mark this past year of .356/.484/.516, 12 2B, 8 HR, 15.7 BB%, 8.9 K%, 36-43 SB. Interestingly, he had reverse splits in 2026, batting .380/.500/585 with a 15.1 BB% and 8.3 K% against right-handed pitchers while hitting .280/.438/.300 with a 15.4 BB% and 10.8 K% against left-handed pitchers. There’s some pull-side power coupled with an all-fields approach, and the Sherman, TX, native clearly has the eye and bat control which indicates he can successfully move up to the DI level.

Defensively, Clark played exclusively in centerfield over the last two years for the Patriots, while playing mostly left field as a freshman in 2024. In his summer league experiences he’s played almost evenly across all three outfield positions. He profiles more as a left field or center field defender, although the obvious hole in the Wolfpack outfield right now resides in right field. It will be interesting to see how the Wolfpack coaching staff decides to deploy him.

Auburn transfer RHP JusticeDe Jong is a 6’3, 220 lbs Brooklyn, NY, native who will be a sophomore for the Wolfpack in 2027. He appeared in just six games as a freshman for the Tigers in 2026, posting a line of 0-0, 10.12 ERA, 5.1 IP, 4.0 BB%, 20.0 K%. De Jong got rocked from late March to early April over three consecutive appearances against Alabama, Georgia Tech, and Jacksonville State. Obviously that’s a very small sample size against really good competition, but the walk and strikeout numbers are solid which is the best indicator there. Even better for De Jong has been his summer performance in the Cape Cod League where across six outings he’s posted a line of 1-0, 3.38 ERA, 13.1 IP, 6.0 BB%, 32.0 K% for the Chatham Anglers, a roster which also features future NC State teammates Rett Johnson, Collins Black, and Mikey Ragusa.

De Jong is on the younger side and won’t turn 20 until after the 2027 season. Despite that, he was a highly regarded prep player as a two-way prospect as a RHP and corner infielder who originally was committed to Duke before flipping to Auburn. He’s a high-3/4 slot guy with a heater that can run in the mid-90’s, while also throwing a changeup and curveball. It’s the latter pitch that’s his true out pitch. He was a Top 100 national prospect in his high school class and ranked last year by D1 Baseball as the 64th best high schooler to make it to a college campus. There is a lot of upside in De Jong, the most of all State’s incoming transfer arms.

Coming to Raleigh after two years at UNC-Pembroke, RHP Harrison Holbrook will be a junior next year for the Wolfpack. Holbrook is a Wilkesboro native with a huge 6’7, 245 lbs frame. He’s a project play for pitching coach Clint Chrysler, hoping to coax more from that frame than what he’s shown to date. Holbrook has appeared in 18 career games for the Braves, making 5 starts and posting an overall line of 1-0, 6.49 ERA, 26.1 IP, 15.9 BB%, 14.4 K%. In 2026, he posted a line of 0-0, 3.24 ERA, 16.2 IP, 17.1 BB%, 12.2 K% over 10 appearances (3 starts).

This summer for the Statesville Owls of the Southern Collegiate Baseball League, Holbrook has gone 3-0, 0.59 ERA, 15.1 IP, 8.1 BB%, 48.4 K%. Granted, competition in the SCBL isn’t on par with the ACC, but maybe Chris Hart and Chrysler are on to something here. With a frame that large and a mid-90’s fastball coupled with a mid-80’s breaking ball from a low 3/4 arm slot, Holbrook is a dart throw well worth taking.

The Comets and Tower Buzzers emptied the tank with standout offensive displays while the Loons and Drillers found themselves on the losing end of close matchups.

Player of the day

Five hits, a pair of long balls: Easton Shelton was on fire in the Tower Buzzers’ win over the Storm. Shelton’s two long balls carried him to 28 in 2026. To demonstrate how dominant he’s been, Shelton is averaging slightly over one RBI per game with 87 of them in 81 appearances.

This was only the second time Shelton went yard multiple times in the same game this year, and his 12 total bases represented a career-high mark.

Triple-A Oklahoma City

It doesn’t get much more comprehensive than a shutout win, scoring 10 runs and outhitting your opponent 16 to 4. After not scoring for the first five innings, the Comets offense burst through with a five-run seventh inning in a game in which veterans shined on both sides of the ball. Cole Irvin held the Rainiers scoreless in six innings, while Ryan Fitzgerald secured a team-high five hits, driving in two and scoring another two runs.

The Comets hit three home runs, including Zach Ehrhard’s 15th on the year. The other two came from the bottom of the order in Chuckie Robinson and Austin Gauthier. Every hitter in the starting lineup and even pinch-hitter James Tibbs III recorded at least one hit.

Double-A Tulsa

Everything was going smoothly for the Drillers until the bullpen conceded four runs in the eighth in a 6-4 defeat. All three hitters who reliever Charlie Reubeck faced reached base safely, and Kelvin Ramírez couldn’t fix the mess, blowing his third save this year.

Mike Sirota and Zyhir Hope had good performances, the former recording three hits, but with next to nothing coming from the top of the order in Josue De Paula and Kendall George, the Drillers stopped at four. Recently called up to Double-A, catcher Hayden Gilliland hit his second homer there, one of two long balls in the game, the other belonging to Sebastian Walcott of the RoughRiders.

High-A Great Lakes

Four in the first and another four in the second. That was all the scoring the Whitecaps did to beat the Loons 8-6, pouncing on what ended up being Jakob Wright’s shortest outing of the year, recording only four outs thanks to five free passes.

Leadoff hitter Charles Davalan and the Loons bullpen not allowing a run after the second inning did their part to try and give them a fighting chance, but an 8-0 deficit was too big to climb out of. The Loons lacked power as Davalan’s double was their only extra-base hit.

Single-A Ontario

One of two hitters in the Dodgers minor league affiliates with a five-hit performance, first baseman Easton Shelton had his way in a blowout win for the Tower Buzzers over the Storm by a score of 11-5. Shelton went deep twice and recorded three of his team’s four extra-base hits, raising his season OPS to 1.070.

With starter Brady Smith coming one out short of five full innings, the win was left for Edwin Díaz, tossing a scoreless inning in a rehab appearance. Díaz allowed one hit and struck out one, covering the sixth inning.

Shelton might’ve had the most hits on the team, but Joendry Vargas was the one batter not retired at any point, recording three hits and a pair of walks in five plate appearances.

Transactions

The Dodgers called up Kyle Hurt from the Comets, while Cole Irvin was activated to start for Oklahoma City.

Sunday’s scores

• Tacoma 0, Oklahoma City 10
• Frisco 6, Tulsa 4
• Great Lakes 6, West Michigan 8
• Ontario 11, Lake Elsinore 5

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Dylan Cease is the hottest strikeout arm in baseball, and a soft number makes his Over my top play.

The Toronto Blue Jays are -155 favorites as they open a four-game set tonight with the Tampa Bay Rays and Nick Martinez. Cease has been overpowering since before the break, and a Rays lineup that hasn’t done much damage against him headlines my card.

Read on for my Rays vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks for this Monday, July 20 matchup.

Rays vs Blue Jays predictions

Rays vs Blue Jays best bet: Dylan Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts

Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Dylan Cease remains the AL strikeout king with 148 and a 13.5 K/9. Strikeouts are his game, and he’s rolling, dating back to the eight-inning shutout he tossed before the All-Star break. At the All-Star Game itself, he struck out the side as the starting pitcher.

He’s as hot as any pitcher in baseball, clearing 7.5 strikeouts in four straight starts. I love that we can grab this at plus money, and I’ll take it until +100.

COVERS INTEL: Active Rays hitters are slugging just .323 in 62 career at-bats against Cease, limiting the chance for extra-base damage that could pull him early.

Rays vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)

For the same-game parlay, I’m building around Cease and Toronto’s steadiest bats.

I’ll double down on Over 7.5 strikeouts from my best bet, then add the Blue Jays moneyline, backing the home ace against a Tampa Bay Rays club skidding on the road. 

Ernie Clement Over 1.5 total bases rounds it out. He’s been Toronto’s most reliable hitter, with a knock in 10 of his 13 games this month.

Rays vs Blue Jays SGP

• Dylan Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts
• Ernie Clement Over 1.5 total bases
• Blue Jays moneyline

Rays vs Blue Jays home run pick: George Springer (+405)

Offense has been hard to find for Toronto this season, but George Springer has provided a few sparks. The Blue Jays designated hitter homered on Friday and cashed an RBI single on Saturday, and now he draws a great matchup against Rays starter Nick Martinez.

Springer is 6-for-17 with two home runs off Martinez, good for a massive 1.156 OPS, which gives me the confidence to fire a quarter-unit home run bet here. I’d make sure I’m getting +400 or longer on this one.

Rays vs Blue Jays odds

• Moneyline: Tampa Bay +135 | Toronto -155
• Run line: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-155) | Toronto -1.5 (+135)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-120)

Rays vs Blue Jays trend

The Tampa Bay Rays come in riding a six-game road losing streak, a good spot for the Toronto Blue Jays and their ace at home. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Blue Jays.

How to watch Rays vs Blue Jays and game info

Rays vs Blue Jays latest injuries

Rays vs Blue Jays weather

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NEW YORK – Yoshinobu Yamamoto comes into this week with as many wins as Jacob Misiorowski. 

He has made as many starts as Misirowski and pitched more innings.

The statistic that explains the multiple degrees of separation between them in the competition for the National League Cy Young Award is earned-run average: Misiorowski is at 1.67, Yamamoto at 2.78.

But Yamamoto remains within striking distance of Misiorowski, the 24-year-old fireballer of the Milwaukee Brewers.

And by the end of the season, he will overtake Misiorowski, who didn’t pitch in the two weeks leading up his scheduled on Monday because of arm fatigue.

Yamamoto will become the first-ever pitcher from Japan to win a Cy Young Award.

Because Yamamoto remains pain-free. Because he has a track record of becoming sharper as the season progresses. And most importantly: Because the Dodgers need him to be a stabilizing force in their rotation.

The Dodgers emerged from their series win at Yankee Stadium not knowing when Shohei Ohtani would pitch next or if catcher Will Smith would even play again this season. In the middle of this uncertainty, they were able to confirm they can rely on at least one player they were counting on to deliver for them in October.

They can rely on Yamamoto.

With their scheduled game on Saturday night canceled because of an imaginary thunderstorm, the Dodgers and Yankees played a doubleheader on Sunday.

Original Saturday starter Emmet Sheehan was pushed back to the series-opener in Philadelphia on Monday, as Ohtani was scratched from his scheduled start against the Phillies on Wednesday.

With the Dodgers planning a bullpen game for the second game on Sunday, they asked Yamamoto to take down as many innings as possible in the first.

Did he ever.

The diminutive Japanese right-hander who pitched two complete games in the playoffs last year on the Dodgers’ World Series run pitched his first regular-season complete game in an 8–2 victory over the Yankees.

“That’s why he’s our ace,” manager Dave Roberts said.

As usual, Yamamoto downplayed what he did.

“Generally speaking, I don’t think about it being a doubleheader when I climb on the mound,” Yamamoto said. “I went in as if it was a normal game.”

Which isn’t to say Yamamoto wasn’t aware of the broader picture.

Of the four pitchers who started games for the Dodgers in the postseason last year, Yamamoto was the only one pitching in the major leagues.

Ohtani was shut down.

Blake Snell had just started a minor-league rehabilitation assignment.

Tyler Glasnow hadn’t faced hitters in any capacity since he was placed on the injured list in early May with back spasms.

“By focusing on each and every game, I wouldn’t say I can provide cover [for them], but I think provide the team with something that is ultimately beneficial,” Yamamoto said.

Yamamoto threw more cutters than usual and registered quick outs.

He didn’t allow a hit until the fourth inning when he gave up a solo homer to Trent Grisham.

“No matter how you look at it, I threw it in a place where it was going to get hit for sure,” he said of the down-the-middle fastball he served up to Grisham.

The Yankees didn’t score again until the bottom of the eighth inning, by which time the Dodgers had already scored eight runs.

“His pitch count was so good the entire game,” Roberts said. “I felt he could get us through the seventh, and then he had a good seventh, and it just felt like he could finish the game.”

Yamamoto completed the game in 102 pitches.

Roberts guessed that Yamamoto was motivated by his final start before the All-Star break in which he was charged with six runs in six innings of a loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks. 

The manager also pointed to how Yamamoto pitched seven scoreless innings in this very ballpark as a first-year player in 2024.

“You know he likes these big games,” Roberts said.

Yamamoto was especially pleased with how his efforts completely spared the bullpen.

“I think pitching nine innings is better than being credited with a win as a pitcher,” he said.

The Dodgers lost the night cap, 2–1, but they were able to stay in the game because of Yamamoto’s contributions. Deploying seven relievers, they were tied until the bottom of the eighth inning when Evan Phillips gave up a game-deciding solo shot to Ryan McMahon.

Roberts said of the game pitched by Yamamoto: “It’s one of those things that, in one game, it’s great. But I think that the exponential effect that it has on everyone else, it’s huge, and it’s hard to really nail down how valuable that is.”

He demonstrated that last October.

He looks ready to demonstrate that again over the remaining 2 ½ months of the regular season, as well as the playoffs.

Along the way, he will make history.

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That the Red Sox have climbed out of the Grand Canyon-sized hold they dug themselves over the first three months of the season is remarkable enough, that they’ve done it without any contributions from the most talented hitter on their roster is shocking. Alas, they better hope they can keep it going without Roman Anthony because, somehow, he is still not anywhere close to returning. Anthony, who was sent to Fort Myers recently to continue to rehab, is still unable to swing a bat. “We’re not going to resume hitting if there’s still discomfort in the hand,” said Chad Tracy. “That’s a big piece of our lineup. It would be great to get him back. The whole point is we don’t want our player, that player, to play injured, especially when it comes to swinging the bat.” (Alex Speier, Boston Globe)

Of course, we all know the explanation for how they’ve been able to put this streak together without a bat like Anthony’s in the lineup: starting pitching. “Over the first 11 wins [of the streak], the team allowed just 17 runs — the fewest its allowed in any 11-game stretch in one season since Babe Ruth was part of the rotation in 1918.” (Alex Speier, Boston Globe)

So it’s arguably been the best run of pitching the Sox have had since Babe Ruth, whose name usually isn’t brought up in a positive way by Sox fans. Neither is the year 1948, which famously did not end well for the Sox, but that’s how long you have to go to match the 13-game win streak. (Steve Buckley, The Athletic)

Of course there have been plenty of contributions from the lineup as well, particularly from guys like Wilyer Abreu, Willson Contreras, and Caleb Durbin. Contreras, in particular is bringing the energy. “I don’t want them to start saying, like shouting, ‘Sell the team!’ I don’t like that,” Contreras said. “I take that personally, but they’re passionate about it. But I’m really proud of the team, of my team. Really proud of the work we’ve done. Really proud because of the way we started, how we are right now. And I know there’s a lot of games ahead, but they make me proud.” (Trevor Hass, Boston.com)

But, believe it nor not, the Red Sox reportedly have not yet decided to buy at the trade deadline: “For now, their plans are fluid. Boston isn’t discounting pursuing help before Aug. 3. The Red Sox also know that, for an entire half of the season, they personified mediocrity and that 15 games does not a season make. So, like many others, they’re weighing their options, knowing that if they stumble, they can pivot into dump mode and make a killing…” (Jeff Passan, ESPN)

Good morning.

Evan Grant writes that the Texas Rangers suffered through mental mistakes that led to a series loss in Atlanta yesterday.

Kennedi Landry has some takeaways from Texas’ series finale defeat, which in addition to defensive miscues, included pitching miscues and batting miscues.

Grant notes that the Rangers are still deciding what’s next for their two rehabbing former rotation members with Jordan Montgomery and Cody Bradford still working their way back.

Zach Crizer writes that Chris Young is again in an awkward spot trying to figure out how much to commit at the trade deadline with a flawed team leading a bad division.

Among his trade deadline desires, The Athletic’s Jim Bowden would like to see Young and the Rangers trade for Luis Arraez.

MLB dot com’s Rob Terranova notes that returning top prospect Sebastian Walcott smacked his first home run of the season for Double-A Frisco.

And, ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle checks out some of the most famous and notable trade trees which includes the franchise-altering Mark Teixeira trade.

Have a nice day!

It’s the topic of the day around the Phillies universe, considering we know how well the plan currently has been going. Alan Rangel currently is the fifth starter for the Phillies and has not performed well. His having to have been in the rotation was a result of Andrew Painter struggling so much this season in the major leagues and now the team is in a bind.

Can they survive a summer playoff push with their current pitching plan in place for the fifth starter’s job?

It’s starting to look more and more like Aaron Nola can give them serviceable starts out of the four spot. He’s been pretty good his last three starts, albeit against some anemic offenses. Still, it’s better than what he has given them, which felt like an automatic loss each time he toed the rubber. Maybe the team feels they are fine with whatever Rangel can give them until Painter is (maybe?) able to fix himself in Lehigh Valley? Maybe they have a deal lined up to get another LAIM for the backend of the rotation.

Who knows!

It’s been a crazy sophomore season for Drake Baldwin so far.

Up until he suffered an oblique injury in mid-May, he had a .401 wOBA (154 wRC+) and .418 xwOBA — pretty bonkers numbers. Like, we knew he was good from 2025, when he had a .350ish wOBA/xwOBA (125 wRC+), but to come out swinging well above that? I’m hard-pressed to describe it in any other way but “wow.”

The oblique injury kept him out for a month. He played in literally one rehab game before the Braves decided that their catching situation in his absence was so bad that there was no way he could be any worse while getting back up to speed. In a very immediate sense, they were proven right, as Baldwin homered on the fifth pitch of his post-activation PA. But, in anything but a very immediate sense, they were proven wrong-ish. In his first 12 games back, which included that leadoff homer, Baldwin put together a .105 wOBA and .178 xwOBA (-44 wRC+, and yes, that’s a negative). Nearly everything was out of whack: his walk rate was just two percent and his strikeout rate was 44 percent (compared to 11 percent and 20 percent, respectively, pre-injury); his exit velocity was down 10 mph and his hard-hit rate was about halved. His bat speed was more or less unchanged, though a bunch of other more granular swing metrics were off-kilter. Basically, it didn’t necessarily seem that he was having lingering physical issues, but he was clearly off in a way we hadn’t seen.

As the calendar flipped to July, though, things began to change again. On July 1, Baldwin had a hit and two walks. It was his first day with either a wOBA or xwOBA over .300 since his leadoff homer in his first game back. He had an o-fer a couple of days later, but up through the All-Star Break, he seemed very back: .410 xwOBA, a 13 percent walk rate, and a strikeout rate that had fallen all the way down to nine percent. The only thing not gelling was that he was massively underhitting his xwOBA (.340 wOBA), which will happen in a 12-game sample.

And then, we got the series against the Rangers. In Game One, he had three hits, including a homer, and also drew a walk. It was his third-highest xwOBA game of the season so far, and fifth-highest wOBA game. In Game Two, he had a couple of singles. And then came Game Three, the best full* game of his career so far: three singles, two homers, no outs at the plate. It was the second multi-homer game of his career. Oh, and he stole a base. His season line, which had dipped to a .345 wOBA (117 wRC+) and .372 xwOBA after his June struggles is now back to a .368 wOBA (132 wRC+) and .391 xwOBA.

* I say “full” because last year, he had a game where he didn’t play until the eighth, when he pinch-hit, drew a walk, and then hit a game-winning, two-out, two-run homer off Jose Alvarado the next inning. Technically, a walk and a homer is a better line on a rate basis than three singles and two homers.

So, how back is Drake Baldwin? Better than ever? All the way back? Wait-and-see? The scars of June are too deep to believe?

The Orioles have saved their season (for the time being) with this current seven-game winning streak. The wins haven’t all been pretty, but they’ve gotten the job done and climbed the team back into the thick of the AL playoff race. It has also set the stage for a massive midweek series in Boston that has the potential to put the O’s back above .500 for the first time since Opening Day and in sole possession of a wild card spot.

Throughout this streak there have been plenty of oddities that small sample baseball is known for. Are they sustainable? Almost certainly not. But they are fun to examine to help explain why the stars may have aligned and allowed this imperfect Orioles squad string together so many wins in a row.

1.80 team ERA

While the offense has been solid during this win streak, it’s the pitching staff that deserves most of the credit for making it happen. They haven’t allowed more than three runs in any one game, and have given up two or fewer runs in six of the seven wins.

Their 1.80 team ERA in that stretch is the third-best in baseball. Only the even hotter Red Sox (1.73 ERA) and the surprising White Sox (1.31 ERA) have been better since July 9. By the way, the Orioles 2.95 FIP is better than both of them, second in the league in that time.

Of course, you can dissect that ERA number a few different ways to find positives and negatives. For example, their 3.42 xERA in that same span is more pedestrian, though still good. Or how the starters seem to be legitimately good (2.38 ERA, 2.69 FIP, 3.12 xFIP), while the relievers are making it work with smoke and mirrors (0.77 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 4.49 xFIP).

But you can’t argue that the outcomes have been exactly what you want, and perhaps the Orioles were due a bit of good luck from the baseball gods after enduring a some undue struggles for much of the year.

Gunnar Henderson’s 61 wRC+

The struggles of the Orioles star this season are nothing new. He’s had a few nice moments here and there, but has failed to sustain any sort of positive momentum. The month of July has been his absolute low point.

Since the calendar flipped, Henderson is hitting .170/.237/.226 with one home run, 14 strikeouts, and three walks. Things haven’t been much better when you trim the timeline down to just the Orioles’ seven-game win streak. In that time he is slashing .207/.258/.310 with the one home run, 10 strikeouts, and zero walks.

It feels like the Orioles are banging their head against the wall with Henderson. Despite his struggles, he continues to occupy a prominent spot in the batting order and be given the MVP-type treatment. It’s understandable given his track record prior to this season. But the results haven’t improved, and it feels like something a bit more drastic could help.

That’s not to say Henderson should ride the bench. He’s played a nice defensive shortstop this season, and is an important base running threat for the team. He also has not been unplayable bad at the plate or anything, but his 91 wRC+ for the season does suggest he has been below average. Hitting a bit lower in the order doesn’t feel unreasonable at this point.

What’s relevant to this blog, however, is that despite their star mightily struggle with the stick, the Orioles are winning games. They’ve scored 34 runs in these seven games, which is just below the five runs per game threshold that good teams are aiming for. If they could get just a bit more from someone that is supposed to be leading them, the ceiling is there for this team to go on an even longer run of winning baseball.

Coby Mayo’s .714 slugging percentage

Maybe the Orioles don’t have a future all-star third baseman on their hands with Coby Mayo, but (for 2026, anyway) they have one of the league’s absolute best hitters against left-handed pitching. That’s something they can work with.

O’s manager Craig Albernaz has leaned more and more into using Mayo almost exclusively against southpaws. It’s working. Mayo’s 204 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this year is the best mark in baseball. His 10 home runs off of them are second in MLB, behind just Kyle Schwarber, who has nearly double the plate appearances and only two more homers.

Mayo is 4-for-14 during the Orioles win streak with five strikeouts and no walks. Two of his four hits have left the park. His latest round-tripper came on Sunday, when he took the left-handed Bryan King deep for his 13th total homer of the year. The sort of all-or-nothing approach was en vogue a few seasons ago, but it can still work at times, as Mayo is proving.

Ideally, Mayo would be an everyday option that, despite some defensive concerns, you would be confident playing against any pitcher. But that isn’t the reality, at least not right now for the 24-year-old. For much of the season, the Orioles refused to acknowledge that, playing him at third base most days regardless of the matchup. But now, when they need as many wins as possible from the rest of their schedule, they have relented and moved him to a platoon role. The team is better for it.

Four different pitchers have recorded saves

The addition of Ryan Helsley at the back of the Orioles bullpen has not gone as anyone would have hoped. The hard-throwing righty is on his second IL stint of the season for elbow discomfort. That has limited him to just 15.1 innings this season and a 4.11 ERA. For now, the team is unclear on if he will pitch again this season. On Sunday, he was moved to the 60-day IL, which will keep him on the shelf through the end of August at least.

In his absence, it seems as though Albernaz won’t be naming a replacement closer. No one on the current roster really fits the role anyway. Andrew Kittredge is the veteran of the group, but his season has been a bit bumpy. Tyler Wells has closer experience, though it came several years ago. And a few other guys may have “closer stuff,” but it’s always a risk to put that kind of pressure on an unproven arm.

The Orioles have had five save situations during this seven-game win streak. Four different pitchers have been called on in those scenarios. Kittredge has two of them, and then Wells, Grant Wolfram, and Cam Sanders have one each. Sanders was optioned on Sunday anyway. That’s a good illustration of just how improvised the current ninth inning situation really is.

If the Orioles do decide to buy at the deadline, bullpen has to be at the top of their wishlist. What’s working right now probably won’t a few weeks from now. Maybe they don’t have to outbid everyone for the top closer on the market, but they will certainly have to be aggressive. Helsley’s return is no guarantee, and he can’t be relied upon anyway. Maybe Félix Bautista will make it back on a mound by season’s end, but the team would have to be careful with him. Adding an arm with ninth-inning chops will need to be a priority.

We have now come back from the break. These last couple of labs have come from the luxury of the cruise ship, so the numbers are all pre-All Star break numbers. We have been looking at offense position by position to get a better feel of where the Astros could use some help. We are actually closer to the end than we are to the beginning. We only have the outfield left to go after today.

It’s at this time that it is time to take a step back. Why do we rely on numbers in the first place? Crime experts will tell us that eyewitness testimony is the least reliable testimony there is. Our emotions and personal psychology usually colors what we see or think we see. One of the more infuriating statements that is often said is that people know a Hall of Famer when they see one. We don’t always and we also think we know good and bad baseball based on what we see, but that is sometimes wrong too.

Stat geeks and analysts have been accused of not understanding the game because we rely on numbers. It would be like questioning scientists because they feel a need to conduct experiments and use the scientific method. Knowing something and proving something can be two entirely different things. We know Jeremy Pena is a good baseball player. How good is he? Well, we need numbers for that and there is no better number offensively than bases per out.

Bases per out is calculated by adding total bases, walks, stolen bases, and hit by pitches and dividing it by total outs. Baseball-reference.com keeps all of the components, but unfortunately it has to be kept by hand until a stat source chooses to feature it. The major league average for BPO is .676, but as we have seen, that number is not particularly relevant when we are looking at individual positions. First base and third base have come in above that while catcher and second have come in well below it. We are looking at regulars in the American League with at least 120 outs.

When you do enough of these data sets you start to see patterns. One of those patterns is what I would label as the “law of success.” This one is simple and self-explanatory. Teams will tend to play players that are more successful. So, you notice that the majority of the players with the most outs also have done the most damage per out. Pena would be one of those guys too if it weren’t for his injuries this year. It makes perfect sense. If you fail repeatedly then you won’t play for very long.

This is why any talk of a player like say Derek Jeter being the worst fielder in the Hall of Fame is automatically hyperbolic. It can be a true statement, but by definition the Jose Offermans of the world don’t get employed for very long when they demonstrate repeated failure (as a fielder). It is relatively rare to see a team continually employ someone that is routinely failing and when we see it we stand up and take notice as we would with Gunnar Henderson.

Pena is decidedly above average by any measure. He is 17 percent better than the average starting American League shortstop and 24 percent better than the median starting shortstop in the American League. I’d say that is significantly above average. Obviously, we would have to look at the underlying numbers to see if that trend will continue, but this has been the Pena we have seen for the last year in a half.

So, on days when Pena is leading off, the Astros have four players in their lineup that significantly above the major league average in bases per out and two of them are significantly above their positional average. We haven’t profiled Yordan Alvarez yet, but he is likely to have the highest BPO in baseball. While Yainer Diaz and Jose Altuve were not good overall, they were the median at their positions. That of course leaves the outfield where we will be going next time.

This all brings us back to where we thought we were in the first place. The Astros need to find some outfield production and fast. Still, we will wait to see the numbers before declaring a four alarm emergency. So far, the Astros look like they have an above average offense. It will be interesting to see if that is where they end up in the end.