Feb 23, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Seattle Mariners pitcher Logan Gilbert against the Los Angeles Dodgers during a spring training game at Camelback Ranch-Glendale. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Good morning and happy Friday, everyone!
The Mariners triumphed in yesterday’s spring training ballgame against the A’s by a 6-4 final.
We inch ever closer to Opening Day, with the Mariners kicking things off on Thursday against the Guardians. What are your plans for the opener? Will you be at the game, or will you be taking it in some other way?
Former Mariners utilityman Dylan Moore has opted out of his minor league deal with the Phillies. The organization now has 48 hours to add him to their big league roster or he will become a free agent.
Former Mariners lefty and current Angel Yusei Kikuchi revealed that he was so upset after Japan lost in the quarterfinal of the World Baseball Classic that he “couldn’t sleep all night,“ a notable departure from his usual 13-14 hours.
Kiri Oller at Fangraphs continued their Positional Power Rankings series by diving into center field, where the Mariners’ Julio Rodríguez reigns supreme.
PEORIA, ARIZONA - MARCH 14: Freddy Fermin #54 of the San Diego Padres throws a warm up toss during a Spring Training game against the Cleveland Guardians at Peoria Stadium on March 14, 2026 in Peoria, Arizona. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Earlier this year, I tried to gauge how much the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike) Challenge System’s introduction into the game would affect the value of the catcher position for the San Diego Padres.
Eventually I concluded with the idea that those who were elite with the system would be given more leeway to challenge (thereby having a much greater ability to influence the game).
Enter Freddy Fermin
Among qualified hitters (more than three plate appearances), Fermin has the highest batting average on the Padres. Through 12 contests this spring, the backstop has hit .412 with two home runs and 11 RBI.
That puts him with an OPS of 1.120. For reference, New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge had a 1.145 OPS last season.
I’m not saying that Fermin can keep up that level of production at the major league level and compete with Judge. But it’s a great sign of his bat having life in it.
For someone the Friars paid an arm and a leg for, it’s great to see him produce. The hope, obviously, is that it’ll carry over to the regular season, and to the next two years of his contract.
Additional value in ABS
But going back to the new implementation of ABS. It’s been a storyline all offseason and will continue to be for most of this regular season with its introduction into MLB.
Fermin has heralded its entrance quite well, leading the league in challenge win rate (among catchers to call for at least 10 challenges) with 86 percent.
The closest one behind him is San Francisco Giants two-time Gold Glover Patrick Bailey (83%).
Fermin is due for a breakout year. It will be his first full season as the primary catcher for a club after serving as the backup behind Salvador Perez in Kansas City to start his career.
His emergence as a hitter and elite defender would go a long, long way toward winning games in San Diego. If this translates into the regular season, the Friars will have gotten a bargain with Fermin behind the dish.
SEATTLE, WA - MARCH 27: Luis Severino #40 of the Athletics pitches during the game between the Athletics and the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on Thursday, March 27, 2025 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Rod Mar/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Morning everyone and welcome back to another beautiful Friday!
The A’s made the expected announcement late yesterday afternoon that staff leader Luis Severino will indeed get the ball for the Athletics on Opening Day in Toronto to take on the Blue Jays:
Luis Severino will start for the A’s in Toronto on Opening Day, per Mark Kotsay. This will be Severino’s second consecutive Opening Day start with the A’s and third overall.
This announcement comes as almost zero surprise. Severino is the unquestioned best option for the assignment and his salary matches that. The right-hander has only pitched in one spring contest for the A’s so far but he made three starts for the Dominican Republic recently, including two during the World Baseball Classic. In those contests he looked sharp, reaching 40, 60, and 68, with his final start coming against the United States in the semi-finals. The 32-year-old has pitched in tons of big games during his career and A’s fans are hoping he can be that guy for them soon.
Still, last year’s quick start on the first day of the long regular season did not portend to coming success. Instead Severino was a tale of two pitchers, struggling at home while thriving and looking every bit the part of the pitcher that the A’s gave a record-setting contract to. He definitely had his moments and hot streaks, but he also had some epic meltdowns as well. Severino ultimately made almost every start, save for a few near the end of the year when the season was already over. In his first year in the Green & Gold Severino finished with a 4.54 ERA across 29 starts, racking up a solid 2.5 WAR in the process.
This’ll be his second Opening Day start for the A’s in as many years, and third in his career after taking the ball for the New York Yankees back in 2018. In that start way back then, he pitched 5 2/3 innings of one-hit ball against…. the Toronto Blue Jays. And with the Athletics last year he also had a shutout appearance as he held down the Seattle Mariners to three hits over six strong innings of work. He’d end up not getting the well-deserved win that evening, and it wasn’t even a sign of things to come as Sevy had a roller coaster first year with the A’s.
The only other options the A’s could have been seriously considering were left-hander Jeffrey Springs (who is expected to get the ball for Game 2) or possibly Luis Morales. Springs on paper would seem like nearly as good a bet to get the Opening Day nod, but the lefty hasn’t had a good spring so far and notoriously got off to a horrible start to his season last year. Morales meanwhile is just barely not a rookie anymore after making 9 starts for the A’s down the final stretch last year. It wasn’t completely out of the realm of possibility after the A’s went with another inexperienced rookie in Kyle Muller just a couple of years ago, but with Morales’ lack of innings under his belt, not to mention experience, it would have been plain mean to send him into Toronto on Opening Day, against the defending American League Champions, no less.
Speaking of the Jays, Severino will have quite the challenge for him waiting north of the border. Though they lost star shortstop Bo Bichette this offseason this Jays offense is just as dangerous as the Athletics’ lineup. Anchored by likely future Hall-of-Famer Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Blue Jays also have star hitters like George Springer and Alejando Kirk, not to mention quality bats like Daulton Varsho, Addison Barger and brief-Athletic Ernie Clement. Oh, add in the wild card in Kazuma Okamoto the slugging third baseman from overseas. On the plus side for Severino, he’s done well against Toronto in his career (3.86 ERA in 16 starts), and add in that Vlad Jr., Kirk, Okamoto and Clement are right-handed hitters. So there’s that small advantage.
Wasn’t really a surprise but now we have it official. Who else is ready to see Severino shut down the defending AL Champions on their home turf next Friday? Something to get excited about! Have a good weekend A’s fans!
Watching the Phillies vs. Twins Spring breakout game & there have been no less than 56 “dings” or text alerts in 2minutes & I now understand the fury of the chat from the Live stream we did the other night with @baseballisdead_ . #KingDing
DETROIT, MI - AUGUST 22: Bobby Witt Jr. #7 of the Kansas City Royals celebrates with Maikel Garcia #11 after they both scored against the Detroit Tigers on a double by Salvador Perez during the third inning at Comerica Park on August 22, 2025 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images) | Getty Images
As the Red Sox approach Opening Day, it’s time to start taking at look at the other American League playoff contenders. Next up, a team that’s led by an MVP candidate.
What’s this team’s deal?
In 2024 the Royals bounced back from a 106-loss season to win 86 games and finish in second place in the AL Central. Those Royals would sweep their Wild Card series against the Baltimore Orioles before falling to the Yankees in the ALDS. It looked like a Kansas City miracle. 2025 would see a chunk of that progress fall back to earth. Regression to the mean comes for us all. But they still won 82 games last year.
This winter the Royals added outfielders Starling Marte and Lane Thomas. They’ll join top prospect Jac Caglianone in his sophomore season in the majors. Caglianone is fresh off a WBC run with Team Italy that saw him slash .286/.500/.571 with a home run and a K:BB of 4:5. Extreme sample and quality sizes abound with the WBC, but this is a guy who put up a OPS north of 1.000 in AAA. They’re expecting some runs like that mixed into a full season.
How good are they?
Bobby Witt Jr. was a superstar again and finished fourth in AL MVP voting. He was an All Star. He won a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove. When you commit to essentially a forever deal with a player, that’s what you want to see.
KC also saw a breakout season for third baseman Maikel Garcia. He finished 14th in MVP voting, was an All Star, won a Silver Slugger, and earned himself an extension that runs at least through 2030. Oh yeah, he also won WBC MVP this week after Venezuela took the championship. From Opening Day 2025 to Opening Day 2026 he’s had a pretty good year.
Vinnie Pasquantino bounced back from an injury-shortened 2024 season to play in 160 games last year, hitting .264/.323/.475 with a personal best 32 home runs. “Where’s the f’ing wine?“ indeed. Pasquatch looks ready to be the solid contributor at first base they need. Especially when he’s beaned up.
The starting rotation features Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Noah Cameron, and Kris Bubic. The Royals had one of the better rotations in the game last season by ERA and are set to do so again with this crew. Lugo and Wacha are in their mid-30s, but the other three are all under 30.
They acquired former Red Sox pitcher and Matt Strahm to shore up the bullpen.
You may remember Aaron Sanchez from his time on the Blue Jays a decade ago. Well, he’s in camp as a non-roster invitee and is still just 33 years old. Old friend John Schreiber is still there, too.
There are a lot of questions in the rotation — even if it can be good. The lineup is Witt, Pasquantino, Garcia, and Perez with maybe Caglianone joining them. They need a bounce-back season from Jonathan India.
The WBC featured a number of Royals across the teams in the tournament and there is talent here, but is there enough? Bobby Witt Jr. is still just one person in the lineup.
Who’s their most likeable player?
Most likeable isn’t always synonymous with best, but in this instance there’s a strong case for it. Bobby Witt Jr. is always playing hard out there and looks like he’s loving every second of it. How can you not root for that?
Who’s their least likeable player?
I almost want to say Salvador Perez because it feels like he’s always hitting against the Red Sox. As it turns out though, .276/.308/.483 isn’t his best split against a team. And his 16 homers are just second to teams not in the AL Central (he has 17 against the Yankees). That’s not really enough to override his general status as a catching legend. He’s been around so long he feels like a familiar opponent but without real hard feelings.
Michael Wacha, has, if anything, been a little worse for the Royals than he was in Boston, as his health and performance continue to fluctuate wildly.
Matt Strahm’s hair is just…scary.
Maybe this space gets filled by Jac Caglianone. Did you know that the C in Jac stands for Caglianone? His name is Jeffrey Allen Caglianone, but he goes by Jac, like a PIN Number. What are we even doing here?
Schedule against the Red Sox
The Red Sox will be in Kansas City May 18-20 and the Royals visit Fenway Park from September 11-13.
Season Prediction
With some health and progress from their younger players like Caglianone and Garcia — and in an AL Central that’s probably weak after the Tigers — they could bounce right back up to 84-85 wins. They can maybe even sneak into the division lead if things go wrong in Detroit and they flip Tarik Skubal this summer.
Tommy Reffell has been with Leicester Tigers since he was a teenager playing at academy level [Getty Images]
Leicester Tigers flanker Tommy Reffell has been ruled out for about eight weeks after suffering a throat injury in training.
Reffell was hurt when hit in the neck by "a stray boot" during a session in the days after leading Tigers to Prem Cup final success against Exeter Chiefs.
The injury could see the 26-year-old Wales international miss at least seven matches, not including further knockout ties in the European Champions Cup if they get past Bordeaux Begles in the round of 16 in April.
"We're gutted to lose Tommy to a very unfortunate injury where a stray boot has hit his throat," Tigers head coach Geoff Parling told the club website.
"He has been a real pest to the opposition, and we'll use this time to firstly get him fit and healthy and secondly get him ready and firing for the end of the season."
Reffell's injury means loanee Hamish Watson will come in for his Tigers debut against Bristol Bears on Sunday.
Watson rejoined Tigers, a club he played for at academy level, on a short-term deal from Scottish side Edinburgh earlier in March.
"This also presents an opportunity for Hamish to start and show his quality in a Tigers shirt in a full circle moment after leaving our academy 16 years ago," Parling said.
PEORIA, ARIZONA - MARCH 14: Jake Cronenworth #9 of the San Diego Padres runs towards first base on a single during a Spring Training game against the Cleveland Guardians at Peoria Stadium on March 14, 2026 in Peoria, Arizona. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Michael King, like his last time out, was hurt by the long ball when he and the San Diego Padres played the Chicago White Sox at the Peoria Sports Complex on Thursday. Fortunately for King, the Padres had their full compliment of All-Star players in their lineup, and they were able to overcome the White Sox and earn a 13-6 win.
King allowed three runs in the first inning, two of which came on a two-run home run by Lamonte Wade Jr., a run in the second inning on a sacrifice fly and two runs in the fifth inning which came on back-to-back home runs by Curtis Mead and Wade Jr., and left the game after five innings of work with the score tied 6-6.
San Diego exploded for seven runs in the bottom of the eighth inning. Jake Cronenworth hit a bases clearing double after three consecutive walks to start the inning and Jackson Merrill followed two batters later with a ground-rule double to put the Padres up 10-6. Ty France followed Merrill and with two runners on, he again cleared the bases with a three-run home run to give San Diego a 13-6 lead en route to the win.
The Padres return to action today with a meeting against the Los Angeles Dodgers at 6:05 p.m.
Padres News:
With Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mason Miller back at the Peoria Sports Complex after their time with their World Baseball Classic teams, both players were asked about the matchup that could have happened when the Domincan Republic faced the US in the semi-final. Miller got the third and final out of the game while Tatis stood in the on-deck circle leaving everyone to wonder, “What would have happened?”
Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune focused his report on Padres reliever Jeremiah Estrada and the motivation he has to be successful with San Diego after his departure from the Chicago Cubs.
Padres.TV color analyst Mark Grant signed and extension with the San Diego organization that will ensure he and play-by-play announcer Don Orsillo remain in the booth, together, for years to come.
Baseball News:
The Spring Breakout Series started Thursday and several games were played, giving top prospects a chance to showcase their abilities. One of those players delivered a 101-mph fastball, at 18 years old, to the No. 5 MLB prospect.
Analytics has any number of practical uses, but the best and original use is to verify feelings that we may have when we watch the games. Emotional responses are often rife with bias. We often remember what we want to remember and forget what we want to forget so that we can forward the narrative we have built up in our minds. As you can see by the title, we are looking at Astros efficiency. So, what exactly is efficiency?
To explain it simply, it is the percentage of runners that end up crossing home plate. However, one of the things we have neglected when looking at efficiency is the pitching end of it. The best numbers are numbers that serve as a mirror image of each other. If it is good for a high percentage of runners to score then it is also good if we prevent a high percentage of runners from scoring.
We call this segment the lab because the numbers are what they are, but the key comes in how we interpret them. So, we end up running a bit of an experiment where we set up a hypothesis and test it. In this case, we would postulate that good teams plate a higher percentage of their runners and prevent a higher percentage of the other team’s runners. For our purposes, base runners can be interpreted as hits + walks + hit by pitches. Obviously, we have situations where runners also reach on errors and fielder choices, but it is usually best to keep this as simple as possible.
So, if our hypothesis is correct then the teams with the highest run differentials would also have the positive gaps in efficiency. So, we will set up our table with runs scored and runs allowed, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, and run and efficiency differential. We know that teams with higher run differentials are the better teams. Will they also have higher positive differentials in efficiency? Let’s find out.
Offensive vs. Defensive Efficiency
Runs
Runs Allowed
Off Eff
Def Eff
Run +/-
Eff +/-
2017
896
700
.415
.367
+196
+.048
2018
797
534
.395
.321
+263
+.074
2019
920
640
.409
.378
+280
+.031
2020
279
275
.403
.383
+4
+.020
2021
863
658
.405
.356
+205
+.049
2022
737
518
.382
.316
+219
+.066
2023
827
698
.401
.363
+129
+.038
2024
740
649
.377
.352
+91
+.025
2025
686
665
.358
.365
+21
-.007
If you felt like the Astros were leaving a small village on base last season then your perceptions were backed up by the numbers. Their .358 efficiency rating was the worst in the World Series era. This becomes particularly acute when you look at the aggregate numbers over the time period. The pitching side saw worse years than last year, but the net result had the first negative differential in the time period.
Our hypothesis was that the best teams would have the best efficiency differential. There wasn’t a perfect correlation here because there never are in human endeavors. However, the club had four seasons with a +200 or better run differential. Three out of four of those seasons also were amongst the four best efficiency differentials. The notable exception was 2017 which saw the fourth best efficiency differential, but the fifth best run differential. That’s still pretty damn close.
The null hypothesis would suggest that efficiency is more or less dumb luck. It would be the intellectual equivalent of Lou Brown (from “Major League”) uttering, “I know he hasn’t done much against this guy, but I gotta hunch he’s due.” Serendipity is certainly a thing, but it also is not an action plan. The more intelligent fan out there would call that regression to the mean. In essence, as an analyst I have always considered intangibles to be something we haven’t figured out how to measure yet.
We used to consider clutch hitting an intangible. We used to consider pitch framing an intangible. Over time we figured out how to measure it. In short, the more you can measure the less uncertainty there is. When you can minimize the unknown you can also minimize risk. As the correlation above shows, you can’t completely eliminate it, but you can minimize it.
What do these numbers mean?
I start by looking at the hitting and pitching numbers independently. Do we see any patterns? The offensive numbers have more patterns than the pitching numbers. They simply fell off the side of the cliff the last two seasons. This is probably the main reason why the hitting coaches were jettisoned. The hope is that new voices can make them more efficient.
On the pitching side, the numbers were more scattershot. 2018 and 2022 stick out like a sore thumb in a positive sense. 2018 was the single best pitching season for any American League team since the DH was instituted in 1973 up to that point. 2022 was obviously both even better and the World Series season with the best bullpen in franchise history. The other seasons saw them give up 640 or more runs and all of them had efficiency ratings between a .352 and .383 in efficiency.
Given those parameters, the 2025 staff exists at around the midpoint. The staff loses Framber Valdez, but hopes to be better with better health and more depth. I hate to keep beating this drum, but the key to the season will come at the plate. The aggregate in the time period for offensive efficiency was .394. That seems like a tall order to get to, but if the team can get back to a ,375 efficiency then that would have been 718 runs scored with the same number of base runners. That is an extra 32 runs on the season. Most sabermetricians look at ten runs as being the win mark, So, that’s an extra three wins. The Astros win the AL West with three wins. That’s especially true if one of them comes against the Mariners. Obviously, it’s a lot easier said than done. Ultimately, we are simply explaining something mathematically that we see with our own eyes and feel emotionally. Will the Astros get back on the right side of the efficiency battle? What do you think?
LAKELAND, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 23: Members of the Detroit Tigers take batting practice before a spring training game against the Minnesota Twins at Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium on February 23, 2026 in Lakeland, Florida. (Photo by Mark Taylor/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Detroit Tigers have gone a long time without finding a big time player in the international free agent market. There have been signs of life from Wenceel Pérez and Keider Montero, and fourth ranked prospect Josue Briceño, but they’re still waiting for a star player to emerge. Teenaged outfielder Cris Rodriguez may be be their best hope.
The Tigers inked Rodriguez to a $3,197,500 contract as the lead member of their January 2025 signing class. The Dominican native had just turned 17 years old, yet he went out to the Dominican Summer League last year and had a really good season. Since Al Avila starting committing serious dollars to top IFA talent late last decade, most of the big names have been disappointments. Scott Harris and his staff have built an outstanding track record in the draft of snatching up the top prep hitters and proving correct, so times have changed. Hopefully, Rodriguez will prove another example of their prowess in evaluating teenaged hitters.
As a 17-year-old, Rodriguez hit 10 home runs in 50 games in the DSL, striking out a very reasonable 22.3 percent of the time. He didn’t walk much and he chased a lot, so there’s a long way to go. Rodriguez has the same power potential as a Junior Caminero but isn’t tracking as a hitter to the same degree. At least it’s comforting that Caminero was a pretty aggressive free-swinger at that age as well. Still Rodriguez’s well advanced raw power and sound swing with natural loft were death to fastballs, and he hit the ball very hard, very often. The young outfielder is already a pretty strong 6’3”, 203 pounds, but he’s still fairly lean with the frame to add another 20 pounds of good muscle. There’s a good chance he’ll boast 70 grade raw power by the time he’s in his 20’s.
In the outfield, Rodriguez can handle center field, but his speed is pretty average and he may lose a step as he fills out. Reports suggest that he has work to do to improve his jumps and route running, but that he’s a pretty sound defender who closes on the ball well and makes plays. That’s a pretty good foundation at his age. His plus arm makes him a good fit in right field, and that seems like his natural position. There’s a good chance that he’s at least an average corner outfielder in a few year’s time even if he ends up losing a little speed.
Per FanGraphs, Rodriguez EV90 in the DSL was 108 mph, which is pretty wild. His ten percent best balls in play by exit velocity averaged similar numbers to the hardest hit balls of Kerry Carpenter’s career, and again, he was 17 years old at the time. Rodriguez hit a ball 113 mph at his best last summer. The lack of an approach at the plate gives one pause, but it’s a big advantage just in pure hitting terms to have level of batspeed with the potential for more to come.
As with all young hitters, the issues to track in the years ahead are plate discipline, ability to recognize spin and offspeed, and development of his swing. Rodriguez chased out of the zone a whole lot in the DSL despite all the damage he did, and that’s going to have to improve rapidly as he plays Complex League ball this season. He’s still going to be facing a lot of wild young pitchers, and a 5.9 percent walk rate again would be pretty egregious. He hasn’t faced too much in the way of quality breaking stuff either, but that’s just par for the course at his age. It just means he’s young, and a long way from the major leagues.
We haven’t seen him other than a few game clips and BP sessions, so it’s hard to say how he looked at the plate in the DSL overall. FanGraphs notes that his hands fire from a dead stop and as a result he takes a little time to gather power. I take this to mean that he’s still something of a BP swinger without a lot of developed hitting rhythm in game. He’s certainly upright and a little stiff-legged in the box, and will benefit from more strength and flexibility through his hips and legs. Hopefully we’ll get some looks at him this summer if he gets to Single-A, and plenty of eyes will be on him as he makes his stateside debut today in the Spring Breakout game.
It’s hard to say much more. Rodriguez has enormous power potential and he already shows signs of being a pretty good fastball hitter. Obviously learning to handle guys with multiple plus pitches and good command is another matter, but that’s enough to be pretty excited about him already. It doesn’t hurt that he’s athletic and a good runner for his size even if that speed figures to diminish as he fills out, either. He should be a solid defensive presence, and if he gets to enough power the Tigers will have a pretty good player here. He has future star potential to a degree most prospects do not, so it’s worth ranking him pretty highly already.
Look for a good debut in the Complex League, where he shouldn’t have too much trouble, and a full season move to Single-A ball in 2027. It will be a bit of a treat for prospect watchers to see him in the Spring Breakout game where a lot of the Tigers’ current crop of top hitting prospects have burst onto the scene in the past few years.
SCOTTSDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 01, 2026: Logan Webb #62 of the San Francisco Giants throws a pitch during the first inning of a spring training game against the San Francisco Giants at Scottsdale Stadium on March 01, 2026 in Scottsdale, Arizona. (Photo by David Durochik/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
After a sojourn as not-quite world conquerors, Logan Webb re-donned the orange-and-black on Thursday, taking the mound in what should be his last Cactus League start before 2026’s Opening Day.
It wasn’t the glorious, dominant return he may have envisioned for himself. Webb stifled international talent across two starts (allowing 1 ER over 8 2/3 IP) on the global stage and earned a nod to the All-WBC team for his efforts, but back in the desert, the Rockies bats bugged and sweated him to no end.
Webb needed 86 pitches to record 13 outs, including a 2nd inning respite, and was bitten for 6 earned runs on 8 hits, a walk, and just 3 strikeouts. In true Webb fashion, 6 of those 8 hits were singles. The two extra-baggers came courtesy of new Western Division addition, Willi Castro, who doubled, then launched a game-tying solo shot in the 6th on the tenth pitch of the at-bat. Rising star Ezequiel Tovar (also named to the All-WBC Tournament team, representing world conquering Venezuela) ended Webb’s night by working an 8-pitch base-on-balls. Expectations are not mile-high for Colorado, but those types of nagging at-bats portend much hair-pulling and frustrated muttering to come for Giants pitchers. Something to look forward too…
In 2024, his final game in the Cactus League was a 9 ER blow-out against the Cubs, ballooning his ERA to 10.97. Exactly three years prior to Thursday’s start, he gave up 4 runs on 6 hits, including 2 homers, against the Angels. And in his final start before the 2022 regular season, Milwaukee got him for 4 runs on 6 hits again over 4 innings pitched. No alarm bells should be ringing. Nothing out of the ordinary here. If anything Webb seemed to pitch a bit off script, especially in the first couple frames, with a custodial concern for his down-ballot offerings. We saw more cutters and four-seams than you’d expect to see from him (both pitches accounted for 8% of Webb’s mix in 2025), including a first-pitch cut right down the middle to Castro in the 1st. Those pitches are used to raise the eye-line of the batter. They are not standalone features but splashes of color in the bouquet.
Colorado’s elevated rate of contact could be explained too by Webb’s average velocity being down across the board. Not sure why this was the case — perhaps the heat, or if this was by design. But it’s also a helpful reminder that despite his rise-to-prominence as a K-King last year, Webb relies on eliciting certain contact. With that approach, there’s always the risk of an inning like Colorado’s 2nd, in which four consecutive balls in play find holes in the infield and compound into an ugly crooked number. It’s all part of the experience. And if you’re still bothered by the final pitching line, perhaps there’s some solace to find in the fact that two of those six earned runs came when reliever R.J. Dabovich took the mound with two outs in the 2nd. It wasn’t all Webb’s fault!
Overall, it was a hit-happy kind of day in Arizona. Despite less than ideal pitching and some unfortunate defense in the later innings, the Giants slugged their way to a 14-11 win over the Rockies.
Leadoff man Drew Gilbert got into the swing of things with a 3-hit day including a triple off John Brebbia. Back-up catcher Daniel Susac launched his second homer of Spring off Brebbia in the 4th, and Christian Koss tacked one on later in the frame with his first longball.
Jerar Encarnacion continued to scorch the ball, collecting two hits, including a double and a pair of RBIs. Non-roster invitee Victor Bericoto continued to force the issue of his presence, as he’s done all Spring, with another 2-hit day while bagging his 14th RBI on a 2-out double in the 5th.
Andrew Painter made what is likely to be his last start of the spring on Wednesday when he finished four shutout innings against a Braves lineup that had numerous regulars. In total, Painter made three starts, pitched 7.2 innings, allowed three runs on six hits including a home run, and struck out five with only one walk in spring training.
His fastball shape is still a work in progress, but Painter has flashed an impressive arsenal this spring, highlighted by a sweeper-slider combination that racked up a combined six whiffs on a total of 19 pitches in his final start. He’s also shown an intriguing changeup that has potential to be a weapon as well.
But, Painter’s second start was a little concerning in that he lost velocity as it went on and was hit hard. Some of those worries were remedied in his last start where he held an average velocity around 96 MPH throughout his 4 innings and 52 pitches of work. Still, it will be something to monitor as he embarks on his rookie season, as velocity bleeding was an issue for Painter in 2025.
There are lofty expectations on Painter, even if some may be unfairly high. He is a former top pitching prospect in baseball, but he is a much different pitcher now than he was before suffering a torn UCL and missing essentially two years of development. Back then he could essentially feast off of two pitches thanks to his overpowering fastball. Now he’s developing a whole arsenal while trying to rediscover some of the same form of that fastball. Nevertheless, the Phillies are expecting Painter to come in and contribute right away as a rookie, as the fifth starter role in the rotation has been earmarked for the young righty all winter.
The results in spring have been encouraging, but there’s still clear things that must be worked on if Painter will reach his ceiling either this year or in the future. Frankly, there’s still discussions to be had about what exactly that ceiling is in a post Tommy John surgery career.
So, what do you make of Andrew Painter’s spring? Did he show enough for you to instill confidence in him? Or was it not enough yo quell your concerns? Or are you simply just “whelmed” with his performance and are looking forward to what he can do in real games?
BRADENTON, FL - FEBRUARY 27: Baltimore Orioles pitcher Grant Wolfram (48) throws a pitch against the Pittsburgh Pirates on February 27, 2026, at LECOM Park in Bradenton, Florida. (Photo by Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Hurray!
Opening Day is just a week out as the Orioles close out spring training and get ready for the upcoming season. To judge by the main Orioles-interested press outlets, there won’t be a ton of surprises in roster construction. This team is built with depth, and few holes. Manager Craig Albernaz maintains, “I am definitely not the decision-maker,” and that president of baseball operations Mike Elias takes an “organizational approach” to how roster decisions will be made.
That doesn’t mean, though, that there are no slots left, or that spring had no impact on roster decisions. Spring training stats don’t count, of course, but they do matter for folks on the bubble. Some of the “risers” this spring are no-brainers: catcher Adley Rutschman (an .841 spring OPS), infielder Coby Mayo (14 hits in 31 ABs), and catcher Samuel Basallo (a .310 BA and .946 OPS), and, on the pitching side, the whole presumptive starting rotation. But dark horses have surprised, too: utility infield candidate Bryan Ramos (10 hits, 4 XBH, in 29 ABs), outfielder and offseason acquisition Taylor Ward (a .976 OPS in 29 ABs), relievers Eric Torres (8 Ks in 3.2 IP), Grant Wolfram (a 0.00 ERA in five IP), Cameron Weston (an 0.80 WHIP in five IP).
Injuries to infielders Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg, plus veteran reliever Andrew Kittredge, have opened up a couple of spots on the 26-man roster. I’ve surveyed the major O’s-related publications, and here is the consensus view on the Orioles’ projected 26-man roster for the 2026 season. In bold are people on the bubble:
LINEUP:
Gunnar Henderson – Shortstop
Taylor Ward – Left Field
Pete Alonso – First Base
Adley Rutschman – Catcher
Tyler O’Neill – Right Field
Samuel Basallo – Designated Hitter (DH)
Coby Mayo – Third Base
Colton Cowser – Center Field
Blaze Alexander – Second Base
BENCH:
First Baseman – Ryan Mountcastle Outfield – Dylan Beavers Outfield – Leody Taveras (Banner, WBAL) Utility – Jeremiah Jackson
Analysis: Injuries to Holliday and Westburg were a blessing in disguise for Coby Mayo, who will get an extended chance to show he can handle third base. It’ll be an adventure, but he’s shown the offensive upside this spring: a .452 average, .742 slugging, and 1.183 OPS in 31 at-bats. Blaze Alexander will fill in at second, but could find himself back on the bench when Holliday returns.
As for the utility players, Luis Vázquez has options remaining and could be reassigned. Although Jeremiah Jackson has cooled off after a hot start, he has a track record of MLB success that other candidates in this pool don’t. As for longtime Chicago farmhand Bryan Ramos, he’s a sleeper candidate to crack the roster, having torn the cover off the ball lately.
Turning to the outfield, there is a crunch, with five viable options in Colton Cowser, Taylor Ward, Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Beavers and Leody Taveras. Cowser and Taveras are the only true centerfielders, although Beavers has seen plenty of innings at that position this spring. Taveras’ versatility has several publications putting him on the roster. Kjerstad and Noel started off the spring hot, but have cooled recently, and have options remaining.
A question will be what will happen when/if Westburg returns from his partially torn UCL in his elbow. Mayo and Mountcastle would be the odd men out, and while Mayo can be sent to the minors with an option, Mountcastle would need to be designated for assignment(cut) or traded.
ROTATION:
Trevor Rogers
Kyle Bradish
Chris Bassitt
Shane Baz
Dean Kremer
Zach Eflin
BULLPEN:
Closer – Ryan Helsley Set Up – Yennier Cano Keegan Akin Tyler Wells Dietrich Enns Rico Garcia Albert Suárez (Banner)
DEPTH:
Jackson Kowar (SI, WBAL) Grant Wolfram (The Sun, Baltimore Baseball) Yaramil Hiraldo (The Sun, Baltimore Baseball) Hans Crouse José Espada Cameron Foster Chayce McDermott Anthony Nunez Cade Povich Brandon Young Eric Torres
Not much suspense at the top tier of the rotation: Trevor Rogers is looking to build on a season that saw him become one of the best pitchers in the league, while Kyle Bradish wants to stay healthy after Tommy John surgery, and ideally return to his 2024 form that saw him finish in the Top 5 for the Cy Young. The biggest wild card will be from newcomer Shane Baz. Crazy as it sounds, he could be the best pitcher in the rotation if he lives up to his potential and stays healthy.
This group looks dramatically different from last season, when Zach Eflin was the Opening Day starter. The righty, rehabbing from back surgery last fall, may not even make the rotation this season, depending on his return from injury and whether the team utilizes a six-man rotation. If he is still ramping up, the team could carry an extra reliever in Grant Wolfram.
The bullpen will be the biggest question going into the season. The locks include closer Ryan Helsley, signed in the offseason to fill in for Felix Bautista and veteran reliever Andrew Kittredge, although he will miss the beginning of the season. Tyler Wells was moved to the bullpen after being a starter last season.
The last slot or two are interesting. Jackson Kowar, a 29-year-old waiver claim, is showing electric velocity, but he’s out of options. So is Albert Suárez, back on a one-year deal. If he gets cut, other teams will get a chance at him on waivers. Grant Wolfram has pitched great this spring, but he has an option remaining. So does Yaramil Hiraldo, who pitched for the O’s last season and has had a mixed spring. There are other intriguing names in here, including lefty sidearmer Eric Torres and Luis de León, a prospect with electric stuff who was just sent down for more seasoning.
LOS ANGELES, CA - OCTOBER 05: Atlanta Braves pitcher Anibal Sanchez (19) throws a pitch during Game 2 of the 2018 National League Division Series between the Atlanta Braves and the Los Angeles Dodgers on October 5, 2018 at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA. | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The Braves have been killing it in Spring Training, but the roster still looks like it could use some upgrades. Some of those upgrades might even come courtesy of players still in other camps at the moment — provided the Braves find something they like.
This hasn’t been a huge source of contribution in years past for this Front Office, but Anibal Sanchez is the big one here. (Also, Jesse Chavez.)
In any case, I realize that the answer to this question depends on whom, exactly, other teams cut, and whether the Braves find those guys of interest, but here’s your chance to make a binary guess as to whether the Opening Day roster includes the likes of Brett Wisely, Kyle Farmer, or Dominic Smith… or whether the Braves ultimately make a move for perhaps a more recognizable name that had little to do with their Grapefruit League success.
TAMPA, FLORIDA - MARCH 11: Carlos Lagrange #84 of the New York Yankees pitches during the seventh inning of the spring training game against the Toronto Blue Jays at George M. Steinbrenner Field on March 11, 2026 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mark Taylor/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Has any young pitcher generated more hype this spring than Carlos Lagrange? The Yankees’ 22-year-old right-hander came into the spring as the organization’s top pitching prospect (or number two, behind Elmer Rodríguez), with MLB Pipeline ranking him 79th, Baseball Prospectus at 61st, and FanGraphs at 73rd. And yet, as spring training winds down, those rankings have begun to look at least somewhat conservative.
Signed out of the Dominican Republic for just $10,000 in 2022, Lagrange steadily climbed through the Yankees’ farm before breaking out in a big way in 2025. Between eight games in High-A Hudson Valley and 16 with the Double-A Somerset Patriots, he posted a career high in strikeout percentage and innings pitched, along with a career low in walk rate. As the spring began, he drew comparisons to Cam Schlittler, who had a similar breakout in 2024 before emerging as arguably the Yankees’ best starter down the stretch last season.
Then, on the first day of spring training, he struck out Aaron Judge with a 102.6-mph fastball during live BP.
Carlos Lagrange strikes out Aaron Judge on three pitches. Last one at 102.6 mph. pic.twitter.com/Z4dODwf0Hn
That would be a sign of things to come. In 13.2 innings across four outings (including one start), Lagrange has allowed just two runs on six hits, striking out 13 and walking just four. He has drawn praise from, well, everybody who has seen him. ESPN Jeff Passan wrote late last week, “It wouldn’t surprise me if … Carlos Lagrange is pitching meaningful innings for the Yankees by September — if not sooner.” Dellin Betances, to whom the 6-foot-7 hard-throwing righty has been often compared, believes he “has the ability to be one of the best starters in the game if he continues to work on his craft.”
Judge agrees with that sentiment, and I’m pretty sure if Gerrit Cole had his way, Lagrange would start the season in the Yankees rotation. For his part, Lagrange thinks he would be “ready to compete” and following his most recent outing on Wednesday, catcher Austin Wells affirmed “I don’t have any doubts he could help us right now.”
Obviously, that’s not going to happen. Lagrange will begin the season in the minor leagues, either returning to Dougle-A Somerset or earning a promotion to Triple-A Scranton. The Yankees think very highly of this young righty and they don’t want to rush his development just to get him onto the Opening Day roster. As is common with pitchers of his stature, he is still a bit wild on the mound; as Eric Longenhagen and Brendan Gawlowski of FanGraphs notes, his delivery “features lots of head movement and spinal tilt,” which makes it a bit difficult to find the zone with consistency. The Yankees have enough pitching depth both in the rotation and in the bullpen (even if, as Josh notes, there’s quite a bit of uncertainty in the latter) that there’s no real need to rush Lagrange to start the season; and if they need to tap into their prospect depth for starting pitching, well, Rodríguez is going to get first crack, anyway.
Even so, if all goes well, I would expect Lagrange to get the call to The Show at some point this summer. Ideally, he tightens up his control, reduces his walk rate, and allows his electric stuff — which is already MLB-quality, according to most metrics — and forces the organization to find a spot for him in the rotation some time this summer. But should the summer roll around without a spot in the rotation open, well, the organization hasn’t ruled out using Lagrange as a bullpen weapon down the stretch.
And while that might scare Yankees fans who fear Lagrange following the career arc of Joba Chamberlain, pitching development league-wide has come a long way since then, and Chris Sale, Garrett Crochet, and Michael King are just a few of the numerous starters who completed their development into top-of-the-rotation starters while also working out of the big-league bullpen at to,es. Only time will tell if Lagrange might just join that group.
ARLINGTON, TX - MAY 23: Oklahoma pitcher Kyson Witherspoon (26) screams after closing out an inning during the 2024 Phillips 66 Big 12 Baseball Championship game between Oklahoma and Kansas on May 23, 2024, at Globe Life Field in Arlington, TX. (Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Red Sox fans have been spoiled by the rosters of recent Spring Breakout games. That’s what happens when your farm system is stocked with some of the very best prospects in baseball.
The spring breakout roster isn’t quite as loaded this year. Here’s the team that will be in the dugout against the Orioles prospects tonight, per MLB.com:
PITCHERS (9) Jay Allmer, RHP, NR Jake Bennett, LHP, No. 7 Anthony Eyanson, RHP, No. 10 Patrick Galle, RHP, NR Marcus Phillips, RHP, No. 9 Reidis Sena, RHP, NR Juan Valera, RHP, No. 5 Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, No. 4/MLB No. 84
CATCHERS (3) Nate Baez, C, NR Franklin Primera, C, NR Gerardo Rodriguez, C/1B, No. 27
INFIELDERS (9) Marvin Alcantara, INF, NR Franklin Arias, SS, No. 2/MLB No. 31 Josue Brito, INF, NR Yoeilin Cespedes, 2B, No. 18 Freili Encarnacion, INF, NR Henry Godbout, 2B, No. 11 Hector Ramos, SS, No. 23 Mikey Romero, INF, No. 13 Dorian Soto, SS, No. 8
OUTFIELDERS (6)
Enddy Azocar, OF, No. 12 Miguel Bleis, OF, No. 17 Allan Castro, OF, No. 25 Justin Gonzales, OF, No. 6 Harold Rivas, OF, No. 20 Nelly Taylor, OF, No. 22
Even if we don’t have a Roman Anthony or Marcelo Mayer on the roster, we do have two elite prospects in shortstop Franklin Arias and pitcher Kyson Witherspoon. We’ve seen Arias make cameos in each of the last two spring trainings, but this will probably be the first look most Sox fans get of Witherspoon. They will likely be the center of attention.
But the guy I’ll be watching for is another shortstop: Dorian Soto. Soto is an 18-year-old who has yet to make his stateside debut. It’s irresponsible to draw any conclusions from the .307/.362/.428 slash line he put up in the Dominican Summer League last year. But he’s a switch-hitting infielder with a big frame (he’s already 6-3) and huge offensive upside. He’s not going to make an impact in the big leagues any time soon, if he ever does. But it should be fun watching him climb up the ladder, so he’s the guy I’ll be paying the most attention to. Who’s yours?
Talk about prospects, whatever else you want, and, as always, be good to one another.
