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The St. Louis Cardinals look to clinch the series on Saturday as they take on the San Diego Padres.

Despite being underdogs in each of the first two matchups, St. Louis has come out on top both times, with both games also staying under the total.

My Cardinals vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks explain why I’m backing both those trends to continue on Saturday, May 9.

Who will win Cardinals vs Padres today: Cardinals moneyline (+125)

Dustin May has shown an impressive uptick in velocity this season compared to last, and has posted multiple quality starts over the past month.

The San Diego Padresrank dead last in BABIP the past two weeks. They also have the fifth-lowest xwOBA while hitting just .213 as a team during that span, leading to a wRC+ of 84.

The St. Louis Cardinalsrank Top 10 in ISO and wRC+ the last two weeks, and should put up runs against a regressing Randy Vasquez.

His underlying metrics aren’t great, he’s struggling to avoid barrels, and he’s allowed 12 earned in his last 21 ⅔ IP.

COVERS INTEL:After relying heavily on a sinker/sweeper combo in 2025, May is showing a more versatile arsenal with four pitches featuring usage rates of 18% or more.

Cardinals vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-125)

The month of May has not been kind to the Padres offensively. They rank 26th in SLG, 29th in xwOBA, and are hitting just .194 at the plate.

Finding runs against May won’t be easy. He ranks in the 87th percentile in walk rate and 83rd percentile in barrel rate, and has allowed just eight earned in his last five starts.

The Cardinals have scored just eight runs in this series, while the Padres have managed just one in two games.

Vasquez will allow a few before he exits, but not enough to push this total north of the number.

Cardinals vs Padres odds

• Moneyline: Cardinals +127 | Padres -133
• Run line: Cardinals +1.5 (-163) | Padres -1.5 (+156)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+117) | Under 8.5 (-122)

Cardinals vs Padres trend

The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Padres.

How to watch Cardinals vs Padres and game info

Cardinals vs Padres latest injuries

Cardinals vs Padres weather

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Following a Friday loss, the Yankees aim to bounce back and level the series in Milwaukee tonight.

This evening’s contest features Cam Schlittler taking on Kyle Harrison, a pitching duel where New York holds a nice advantage.

Read all about it in my Brewers vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, May 9.

Who will win Yankees vs Brewers today: Yankees moneyline (-135)

Cam Schlittler's started the season at an elite level and has remained consistent. He’s as good as any pitcher in baseball this year, and he has a matchup edge here. I’d play the Yankees to -170 because of it. 

His fastball run value ranks in the 100th percentile of the sport, and his 96th percentile chase rate of just over 38% gives him an elite out-of-zone weapon against a Milwaukee Brewers lineup that must be disciplined to survive him.

The Brew Crew simply doesn’t have the profile of a team that’s going to hurt a guy with a lot of swing-and-miss stuff.

On the other side of things, Kyle Harrison is a talented pitcher, but his Bottom 24 percentile off-speed stuff may give him issues.

This feels like a scenario where a pitcher getting off his fastball (which the Yankees force) is more detrimental than actually throwing the pitch. We’ve seen it a few times this season, though, and it usually works out for New York.

COVERS INTEL: Cam Schlitter’s has the highest overall run value for a starting pitcher in baseball.

Yankees vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-115)

The story of the total is Schlittler, as you might expect. The Under has cashed in three of the last four starts. 

Although I picked the New York Yankees to win, I don't think their offense will do enough to push this Over on its own.

Harrison will have some issues in this matchup, but his hard-hit suppression (88th percentile) and barrel rate (73rd percentile) should keep the Yankees offense in check. I’d play this to -120.

Yankees vs Brewers odds

• Moneyline: Yankees -137 | Brewers +124
• Run line: Yankees -1.5 | Brewers +1.5
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Yankees vs Brewers trend

The Yankees have hit the moneyline in 16 of their last 20 games (+10.65 Units / 34% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Brewers.

How to watch Yankees vs Brewers and game info

Yankees vs Brewers latest injuries

Yankees vs Brewers weather

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Chase Burns emerged from Wake Forest University with the reputation of being a legitimate ace, a guy who at dawn on the fifth day would ride in from the east at first light to rescue his team from the depths of hell.

A guy who, amid a horrid losing streak, could take the mound and fire 7.0 innings of scoreless ball, striking out 7 against a lone walk.

The problem for the Cincinnati Reds, though, is that Chase Burns already did that. That’s precisely what he gave them on May 3rd against the Pittsburgh Pirates, yet this collapsing ball club still couldn’t find a way to turn that into a victory.

Now, Cincinnati sits slumped in an 8-game losing streak, fresh off being battered to the tune of 10-0 by the Houston Astros – at home – in the series opener on Friday night. Jose Trevino, a catcher, pitched once again, and both the offense and the bullpen looked as inept as could be.

The Reds now have a -40 run differential for the season. The New York Mets, who are so bad already that they are reportedly shopping ace Freddy Peralta on the trade market, have a -26 differential. The San Francisco Giants, who just dealt catcher Patrick Bailey to Cleveland for a draft pick and pitching prospect, sport one that’s only -39. No team, not a single one, in the American League has a run differential worse than -38.

The Reds have a collective 89 wRC+ offensively. That’s the fourth worst in baseball.

Cincinnati’s bullpen has a 5.40 xERA. That’s last in baseball by a wide margin, though their 5.07 FIP is only second worst.

The Reds own a 5.12 xERA from their starters, which is third worst (even with Burns having been excellent so far this season).

Overall, Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 5.24 xERA that’s the worst in all of baseball. No other team has a mark so much as beginning with a ‘5.’

In Burns manager Terry Francona will trust again on Saturday as he starts in the second game of the series against Houston. Trust with Francona seems an apt thing to point out, as the skipper still refuses to tinker significantly with his batting order and will once again roll out TJ Friedl as the team’s leadoff man today.

Here’s how the club will line up altogether for Saturday’s 4:10 PM ET start:

Well, this one surprised me.

We knew Addison Barger was going to be activated today, but we didn’t know who would be going to Buffalo to make room. Davis Schneider? Lenyn Sosa? Nope.

Yohendrick Piñango.

The one hitting .423/.444/.462.

I get that he has options and all, and we know Piñango wasn’t going to continue to hit like this, but why not ride him until it ends.

But Sosa? He’s hitting

I know it is a tough choice and Davis is a (likely, I’m not there) a popular guy in the clubhouse. And I’m sure he’ll start hitting at some point.

And Sosa, he’s got a .633 OPS. With little defensive value. I get that the team needs some right-handed batters. But if the right-haned batters aren’t hitting any better than the lefty batters would hit against lefties.

Welcome back Addison. Yohendrick? I’m sure we’ll see you again this year.

Today’s lineup. It does look better with Barger in there. I hope he comes out slugging.

LOS ANGELES — Dodgers infielder Miguel Rojas left Friday night’s game against the Atlanta Braves after seven innings, feeling something in his hip earlier in the game.

Rojas said he first felt it coming out of the batters box in the second inning, then again in the fifth inning while trying to turn a double play at second base. He described it as more a dead leg feeling, while manager Dave Roberts called it a “hip flexor, quad thing.”

Either way, Rojas and the Dodgers don’t expect him to miss much time, if at all. Roberts said the plan is for Rojas to start during the series against the San Francisco Giants when left-hander Robbie Ray starts. Ray started Friday night, which lines him up for either Wednesday or Thursday night in Los Angeles. Rojas this season is 10-for-31 with three doubles and a home run against southpaws, though is hitless in his last 12 such at-bats.

Rojas was involved heavily in Friday night’s win. He reached on an error in the fifth inning, and scored the go-ahead run on an elongated headfirst slide at home plate on a single by Shohei Ohtani.

It was also his bobblehead night, with fans at Dodger Stadium receiving a bobblehead commemorating Rojas’s Game 7-tying home run in the ninth inning in Toronto.

The enormity of that moment was evident on Friday, based on the crowd reaction at Dodger Stadium at various moments, including when World Series highlights were shown on screen. About 15 minutes before first pitch, Rojas was running in the outfield and happened to be alone. The cheers serenaded him as Rojas got to center field, stopping to stretch. That’s when the cheers got very loud, with Rojas acknowledged with a wave.

“I can’t really put into words how grateful that I am for this fanbase, and the love that I’ve been receiving these last couple months,” Rojas said. “The whole day was special for me, having my family out there, having friends behind me, getting to see them really excited to get the bobblehead, and get a little bit, kind of like memories about what happened last year. It was pretty cool, and I’m so grateful.”

Aaron Rojas, Miguel’s son, threw out the ceremonial first pitch to his dad before the game.

“He wanted to do it all the way from the mounds,” Rojas said. “It was a really cool moment for him.”

On the mend

Dodgers reliever Ben Casparius has been out since April 13 with right shoulder inflammation. He’s currently on a throwing program at Camelback Ranch in Arizona, with no set timetable yet for his return.

“I don’t know when it is, but he’s on a longer timetable,” Roberts said Friday. “Once he starts facing hitters and goes on a rehab, then it’ll be more of a conversation.”

The San Francisco Giants traded catcher Patrick Bailey to the Cleveland Guardians, the teams announced Saturday.

San Francisco will also receive the 29th overall pick in July's MLB draft and pitching prospect Matt Wilkinson. The draft pick is part of the Competitive Balance Round A, which is the only type of pick that can be traded and follows the first round of the draft.

To make room on the 40-man roster for Bailey, Cleveland will option catcher Bo Naylor to Triple-A Columbus. Naylor is hitting .143 with two home runs and seven RBI this season.

Bailey, 26, has won the National League's Gold Glove at catcher in each of the past two seasons.

Bailey is batting .146 with one home run and five RBIs in 30 games this season with San Francisco (15-23), which is tied for the worst record in the NL. The 20th overall pick in the 2020 draft, Bailey has a .599 OPS since the start of 2024, the second-worst of any MLB hitter with 800 plate appearances in that span.

He was recently replaced in this lineup as the Giants adopted a platoon system, with Jesús Rodríguez and Eric Haase filling in for Bailey. Daniel Susac will also be in the mix to be the everyday catcher when he returns from the 10-day injured list as he works his way back from right elbow ulnar neuritis.

Diamondbacks News

Snakes Fall to Mets in Extras
Ryan Waldschmidt made his MLB debut coming off the bench for Arizona. He singled in his first Major League at-bat. However, the spark of the highly-anticipated rookie making his debut was not enough to wake the offense up. The Diamondbacks still managed only one run across ten innings, including failing to score the Manfred Man.

Arizona Promotes Waldschmidt, DFAs Alek Thomas
The highly anticipated roster moves have now been made. Oh, and Tyler Locklear was also activated from the 10-day IL and optioned to Reno.

Diamondbacks Kickstart Outfield Revamp
Will the post-deadline outfield be Waldschmidt, Lawwlar, Carroll, and Robinson?

When, Where and Why Ryan Waldschmidt will Play
Expect plenty of Waldschmidt in center with some time in left if Gurriel gets the day off. The hope is that Waldschmidt’s plate discipline will translate tot he Majors.

The Hilarious Story of the Waldschmidt Call-Up
When expecting a talk about concussion protocols turns into an unexpected call-up.

Why Arizona DFA’d Alek Thomas
With a minor league option left available, did Arizona make the right call?

Other Baseball News

Guardians Acquire Patrick Bailey
Good news for Arizona fans, Patrick Bailey is out of the division. San Francisco will receive left-handed pitching prospect Matt Wilkinson and the 29th overall pick of the 2026 draft (the first selection of Competitive Balance Round A, which are the only types of picks that can be dealt).

Misiorowski Flashes 103.6 mph Heat
Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski set a standard for velocity by a starting pitcher while keeping up his habit of performing best in high-profile situations. Misiorowski threw 10 pitches of at least 103 mph while striking out 11 over six dominant innings in the Brewers’ 6-0 home victory over the New York Yankees on Friday night

Dodgers Continue Revolving Door to Rotation
Blake Snell will be coming off the IL and making his season debut today, just in time for Tyler Glasnow to go to the IL.

Things PROBABLY Can’t Get Worse for the Reds
What a difference a week can make for a team’s fortunes.

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Blake Snell returns to the big leagues as the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Atlanta Braves on Saturday night.

Snell gives the Boys in Blue a boost, so I’m backing the home team with my Braves vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, May 9.

Who will win Braves vs Dodgers today: Dodgers moneyline (-170)

Both starting pitchers are in a similar situation in that they’re recently returning from a prolonged stay on the injured list, and they’ve both been among the league’s best arms when on top of their game. Only one has a favorable outlook, however.

Blake Snell nearly always pitches at an elite level when healthy, so he should be his usual dominant self in a pitch-count shortened appearance today.

There are major red flags with Spencer Strider, who allowed nine baserunners in 3 1/3 innings in his 2026 debut. His stuff wasn’t there (84 Stuff+), a worrying trend since he was last effective in 2023. 

COVERS INTEL: In his 2026 debut, Strider’s average fastball velocity (94.6 mph) was down a tick from a year ago (95.4 mph), and several ticks from his peak (98.1 mph).

Braves vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-115)

These are two potent offenses playing in weather ripe for hitting. It’ll be 78 degrees at the time of first pitch, with winds of eight mph blowing out to dead center.

The Atlanta Braves have scored more runs (214) than any team other than the Cubs, whereas the Los Angeles Dodgerslead the majors in wRC+ (124) against right-handed pitching. 

Nothing about Strider’s current status indicates he can hold down a star-studded Dodgers lineup. While Snell is an ace, he’ll be on a significant pitch count after tossing 55 pitches in his last rehab start. 

Braves vs Dodgers odds

• Moneyline: Braves +146 | Dodgers -174
• Run line: Braves +1.5 | Dodgers -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Braves vs Dodgers trend

The Dodgers are 8-0 in their last eight home games against the Braves. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Braves vs Dodgers and game info

Braves vs Dodgers latest injuries

Braves vs Dodgers weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Upon trading for superstar Alex Rodriguez in February 2004 and moving him to third base, the Yankees could rest easy knowing that they had secured a real long-term answer for the hot corner. For the better part of nine years, the Yankees planned their seasons with A-Rod penciled in at third, but by 2014, they ran into a dilemma. Multiple hip surgeries and the aches of age had worn down his ability to man third, and off-field controversy had finally caught up to him, leading to a PED suspension for the entire 2014 campaign. Although A-Rod would return, he was almost exclusively a designated hitter.

In the 13 years since A-Rod’s decline truly began in 2013, the Yankees have cycled through several names in search of an answer. Twenty different players (including A-Rod himself) have accumulated at least 100 PA at third for them since then, and they comprise quite the odd roll call. DJ LeMahieu leads the way in terms of playing time, but the man with the second-most is the focus of our birthday feature today: Chase Headley. A one-time standout in San Diego acquired by Yankees GM Brian Cashman via trade, the switch-hitter falls into a sort of middle ground of memory. New York fans who followed those mid-2010s teams will recall his modest play, but for those who didn’t become diehards until after the fact? His legacy is a little more fuzzy.

Chase Jordan Headley
Born: May 9, 1984 (Fountain, CO)
Yankees Tenure: 2014-17

A Colorado native who grew up a little over an hour outside Denver in Fountain, Headley found his calling card in baseball at Fountain-Fort Carson High School. The valedictorian of his class, he went on to attend the University of the Pacific, where he hit .330/.453/.464 as a freshman and quickly earned national attention. Headley transferred to the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, and continued to ascend despite an injury in his sophomore campaign. He broke school records in his junior season and helped lead the Volunteers to a 2005 College World Series berth before being selected by the Padres in the second round of the 2005 MLB Draft, just three picks after the Yankees selected somewhat-forgotten Longhorn righty J. Brent Cox.

The third baseman moved up the minor league rankings over two seasons, being named the Texas League Player of the Year with a .330/.437/.580 triple slash for the 2007 San Antonio Missions. He made his MLB debut that same year, appearing in a handful of contests in June when the Padres needed big-league help before returning for a cup of coffee at the very end of the year. He went hitless in his first career game but registered his first knock in his third, a single against future teammate Rich Hill.

Prior to 2008, Headley was named among the top 35 MLB prospects by both Baseball Prospectus and Baseabll America. He spent his spring with Triple-A Portland and earned a more long-term look with San Diego by mid-June. He played in 91 games in ’08, producing a slash line of .269/.337/.420 and an OPS+ of 110. Headley’s first career homer actually came in an interleague game at Old Yankee Stadium, taking reliever Kyle Farnsworth deep on June 18th.

After proving that he could be an above-average hitter at the major league level, Headley became a full-time Padres player in 2009. In 156 games, Headley was still an above-average player at the plate, finishing the year with a .262 batting average and a 102 OPS+.

The biggest problem in Headley’s first full season was the strikeout, as it can be for many young players trying to adjust to life full-time with the best of the best. In those 156 games, Headley finished with 133 strikeouts, which ranked among the top 30 of all MLB hitters. However, he reached double-digit home runs for the first time in his career with 12 and achieved the 60-RBI plateau as well. Headley was also still primarily playing left field since Kevin Kouzmanoff was San Diego’s de facto third baseman.

By 2010, Kouzmanoff had been traded, opening up the hot corner for Headley. It was his natural position throughout his time in college and the minors, and he turned into a terrific defender aet third.

Headley gradually came into his own as a big leaguer across 2010 and 2011. Those years merely represented a prelude for 2012 — a season for the ages and the one he’s best known for around baseball.

In 2012, not only did Headley miss only one game, but across those 161 appearances, Headley put his name on the map amid frequent rumors of a potential trade. He slashed .286/.376/.498 with an OPS+ of 145. He walked a career-high 86 times, stole a career-high 17 bases, and also had career highs in home runs (31), RBI’s (115), OPS+ (145), and WAR (6.4). Those home runs were the most of any NL third baseman, and the RBI’s were also not just the most of his career, but they were also the highest in the National League. In 2012, Headley also received major league honors, finishing with a Gold Glove Award and a Silver Slugger Award, while also finishing fifth in NL MVP voting.

Entering camp for his age-29 season, the Padres thought they had a star on their hands. Unfortunately, it didn’t take long for 2012 to look like an outlier. Headley’s 2013 was marred by injury, though, as he started the season on the then-disabled list due to a hand injury in spring training after a slide into second base, and he played through a torn meniscus in his left knee throughout the year, which he believed contributed to his decline in offensive production. Headley’s OPS+ was still a productive 115, but his power was more than halved to 13 homers. He would never again hit even 15 homers in a season.

At the start of 2014, Headley’s numbers took another dip, and this time, the Padres decided it would be best to move on. So on July 22nd, the Padres traded Headley to the Yankees. In return, they received a replacement in Yangervis Solarte—who had come to spring training as a non-roster invitee and soon became a fan favorite and primary third baseman in A-Rod’s absence—and pitching prospect Rafael De Paula. Flying to New York that day, Headley’s travels meant that he didn’t start, but he entered his first game as a Yankee in the eighth inning, pinch-hitting for Zelous Wheeler. Although he struck out, the game went deep into the night, and a 14th-inning rally found Headley with a chance to win it in his pinstriped debut.

The walk-off was a good omen for Headley’s first foray in pinstripes. He hit .262/.371/.398 with a 119 OPS+ in 58 games down the stretch for the Yankees, winning more fans over with a walk-off homer on September 4th against the defending champion Red Sox for good measure. It was a super-effective start to his career in the Bronx. The only downside was that the 2014 Yankees were a pretty mediocre squad on the whole, featuring some famous names but underwhelming results while missing the playoffs with just 84 wins.

Encouraged by his second half, the Yankees and Headley came together on a four-year, $52 million deal a month after the third baseman hit free agency. It wasn’t a huge investment—certainly not the kind that something closer to his 2012 might have merited—but it still proved to be a bit of an overpay. Headley’s offense plummeted back down to Earth, mustering only a 91 OPS+ across 2015-16 while hitting .256/.327/.703. He was still a useful defender, but the power that he had once shown continued to be lost, save for the occasionalflash. The Yankees were one-and-done as a Wild Card team in 2015, Headley going 0-for-3 in the shutout at the hands of Houston’s Dallas Keuchel.

After missing the playoffs in 2016, the Yankees surged back to the postseason with a surprising new core in 2017 led by a rookie Aaron Judge. Headley was better than he had been the previous two years and actually recorded an acceptable 100 OPS+ on the dot, batting .273/.352/.406 with 30 doubles and 12 homers. Seeking to boost their lineup at the Trade Deadline, the Yankees acquired third baseman Todd Frazier as part of a package from the White Sox, and took advantage of Headley’s always-maintained corner infield versatility by sliding him over to first base, where there was an opening due to Greg Bird’s midseason injury.

When Bird returned in time for the postseason, Headley and fellow odd mid-2010s signing Jacoby Ellsbury found themselves in the odd position of competing for DH time at the bottom of the lineup with incumbent Matt Holliday all but rendered a nonfactor due to an ailing back. Headley went hitless until the ALCS, when he suddenly came alive after the series against the infamous 2017 Astros shifted to Yankee Stadium. He went 7-for-15 across the final five games of the series in what turned out to be his last gasp of production as a big leaguer, delivering a pinch-hit single in the come-from-behind eighth-inning rally of Game 4 and then registering three hits in the 5-0 win in Game 5 that put New York on the brink of the pennant with a 3-2 series lead.

So close to what would have been the first World Series appearance of his career, Headley instead never made it. The Yankees infamously dropped the final two games in Houston and were sent packing.

Headley was still well-liked in the clubhouse, but the Yankees felt that they could only trust his 2017 results so much, even with Frazier vacating third base as a free agent. So when the Padres expressed an interest in young pitcher Bryan Mitchell, the Yankees offered to send him west if San Diego was willing to pick up almost all of the $13 million still owed to Headley for 2018; they had just made the megatrade for Giancarlo Stanton and were looking to get their payroll in order.

After some negotiations, the Padres were game, so Headley found himself back in San Diego. The reunion was brief. He went 6-for-52 (.115) with no power in 27 games, and he was released in May, marking the end of his 12-year career. Since stepping away from the game, he’s led a quiet retirement, understandably content to focus on family and raising his two sons, Colt and Cale, with his wife, Casey.

Happy 42nd birthday, Chase!

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Does a one-pitch homer count as a sequence for anyone? It’s a fair question but bending the rules is ok.

What’s also ok is what Adolis Garcia is doing at the plate. The results haven’t been flashy and the underlying stuff is just fine. He is hitting the ball harder but is also not pulling the ball as much, which generally suppresses overall numbers.

But there are real changes that have be made to his approach. He has sort of cheated his way into newfound plate discipline by simply swinging less in general. His zone-swing rate is down 5.6% but he cut his chase down 6%. Over three-fourths of his at bats start with a take, and he has been swinging less at the best kind of pitches to hit.

In the aggregate, these have led to productive changes that should allow for a solid season. Because he is swinging less, his walk rate jumped over three percent as well.

Teams have started to catch on to the adjustments and have changed their game plans accordingly. Garcia might be ready to lean back into an aggressive approach or this was just a really bad pitch from Jeffrey Springs.

There are some reasons to believe these adjustments have more or less raised his floor than anything else. The ball still jumps off his bat but his pull flyball rate has taken a nose dive, which is part of why he is hitting some loud outs.

But a .707 OPS with his defense in right field is a very good one-year deal. There are very good reasons to believe that will continue.

Jonathan Bowlan’s weird inning in Miami.

Jonathan Bowlan three 31 pitches in Miami against five Marlins hitters. He threw 15 four-seam fastballs in those 31 pitches and only started two hitters with one.

His four-seam fastball is roughly 97 mph with about 18.5 inches of induced vertical break and 8.6 inches of run. It’s one of the best in the majors and has gotten very good results in his limited time as a Phillie. Hitters are only hitting just .111, no extra base hits, and are whiffing over 30% of the time on it. Given that Bowlan is a one or two inning reliever, it just feels like the pitch needs to be thrown more.

15 out of 31 in Miami is actually better than his general season usage at 41.4%, which seems low. He does throw a lot of offerings but given the role, would it be best if he simplified the mix?

The other pitches in his arsenal have been mixed. The changeup has not played very well with hitters hitting .500 on the pitch with a slugging of .625. He picked up a sweeper after joining the Phillies and it’s looked like his best secondary offering to start the season with the slider looking solid as well. He has struggled to land curveballs in the zone consistently and the sinker has generated some weak contact but not a lot of whiffs either.

A four-seam, sweeper, slider pitcher is may run into potential platoon issues but given that those are clearly his three best pitches, they should be what’s featured. The plan around that has to get simplified, given the role he is in and the fact that it isn’t working. He is a much better reliever than the 8.31 ERA would indicate.

It has been very well established at this point, but Foster Griffin throws a lot of pitches, seven of them to be exact. In order of usage, Griffin throws a cutter, a 4-seam fastball, a sweeper, a sinker, a changeup, a curveball and a splitter. However, Foster Griffin is not just throwing a lot of pitches for the sake of it. All of these pitches work together to create a coherent arsenal.

I would not say that any singular pitch Griffin has is elite, but they are all at least average. He is also willing to throw any pitch at any time. Other than his changeup, Griffin throws all his pitches to either handedness of batter. That makes him very unpredictable. This unique arsenal, along with outstanding command is why Griffin has the lowest ERA of any left handed starter.

Let’s break down Griffin’s pitches and talk about how they play off of each other. The bread and butter for Griffin is his cutter. It is the pitch he usually turns to when he really needs a big out. He uses it 31% of the time, which is twice as much as the next closest pitch in his arsenal. His cutter gets solid results, with a .241 average against and 11 strikeouts generated on the pitch. 

However, like most cutter’s, Griffin uses it as a pitch to get soft contact. The average exit velocity against his cutter is just 85.5 MPH, which is very good. He loves spotting that cutter on the inside part of the plate to righties and moving away from lefties. It was his most used pitch before he went to Japan, and it is still the pitch he trusts the most now.

Against the Marlins last night, Griffin was locating the cutter brilliantly. He threw it in the zone 68% of the time, but stayed out of the middle of the plate. Griffin’s cutter set the tone last night, but there are so many other pitches he uses to make his cutter even better.

While Foster Griffin’s changeup is his fifth most used pitch on the season, he relied a lot on it last night. It was the offering he threw the second most, and it was very effective. Marlins hitters swung at the changeup five times, and came up empty on three occasions. The changeup is an offering Griffin uses a lot against righties. However, he has not thrown a changeup all year to a left handed hitter.

With the Marlins stacking their lineup with righties, it is not much of a surprise that Griffin leaned on the changeup. Batters are only hitting .111 on the changeup this year. It pairs well with his cutter. The cutter comes into right handed hitters, while the changeup moves away from them.

One cool thing about Griffin is that he throws a changeup and a splitter that have two very distinct movement profiles. As Nats fans know, Griffin pitched in Japan for three years. Japanese pitchers love throwing splitters, so Griffin picked up that pitch while he was over there. Early in the season, the splitter was one of his better pitches. However, he has not had a great feel for it lately. Last night, he only threw two splitters, preferring the changeup instead.

Having two offspeed pitches is very unique though. Most guys either have a changeup or a splitter, not both. For pitchers, being unique is good and boy is Foster Griffin unique. Not many pitchers have 7 different pitches that are all in different velocity bands and have different movement profiles. Griffin does that, and you can see it when you look at the pitch plot.

Another pitch that Griffin learned in Japan was a sweeper. That pitch has become a massive weapon for him, especially against left handed hitters. His sweeper has a 35.9% whiff rate, the highest of any offering in his arsenal. When Griffin faces big left-handed power bats like Munetaka Murakami, the sweeper is the pitch he usually turns to. He gets a ton of movement on the sweeper, with three more inches of break than the average sweeper. 

It is crazy that we have gotten this deep into the story, and we have not discussed Griffin’s fastball at all. His heater is the least flashy pitch in his arsenal, but his 4-seamer and sinker both play important roles. Griffin is a soft-tosser, who only averages 91 MPH on his fastballs. 

However, he is not afraid to show hitters his heater. Even though his fastball is not hard, you still have to respect the pitch. Batters are only hitting .200 on his 4-seamer and .118 against the sinker. The sinker generates a ton of weak contact, with the average exit velocity on the pitch being just 81.4 MPH. He loves spotting the sinker on the inside corner to lefties and away from righties. The sinker is another pitch he picked up in Japan.

While this play ended up being a disaster, a great example of how Griffin uses his sinker came in the first inning against Kyle Stowers. On a 1-2 pitch, he got the Marlins slugger to swing at a sinker just off the plate and inside. He hit a broken bat bouncer, but the Nats made an error on the play. The result was not what we wanted, but it was a good process.

Another thing that Griffin did really well last night was blowing the 4-seamer by guys. He does not have much velocity, but when he puts his fastball at the top of the zone, it can get whiffs, especially with two strikes. In those two strike counts, a fastball is the last thing these hitters are expecting when facing a junk baller like Griffin. That makes his 90-93 MPH heaters seem a lot harder.

Somehow, there is still another pitch that Griffin throws that I have not talked about yet. The last pitch I want to discuss is Griffin’s curveball. His curveball is a classic 12-6 hook with a ton of drop. Against the Brewers in his previous start, the hook was a big time weapon for him. While he threw it 11% of the time last night, it took a back seat to some of his other pitches.

Last night, Foster Griffin showed how valuable a deep arsenal can be. He threw 38 cutters, 15 changeups, 14 sweepers, 13 4-seamers, 11 curveballs, 10 sinkers, and two splitters. Foster Griffin was truly an artist on the mound last night. That artistry got him through seven innings, where he allowed one earned run while striking out 9 and walking just one batter. 

The craziest part is that I am not that surprised by his outing. This was definitely one of Griffin’s best outings, but it was not an outlier. He has gone at least six innings in his last four starts, and has only allowed four earned runs in those outings. That is incredible stuff for a guy who signed a 1-year $5.5 million deal.

He is just such a joy to watch on the mound. One of my favorite Foster Griffin clips is when he struck out the side against the Dodgers, using three different pitches to finish guys. That sums up the Foster Griffin experience so far. His ERA is 2.12, and he has been absolutely masterful. Some of the underlying numbers suggest he may have a tough time keeping this up, but even if he is half the pitcher he has been so far, that is a great deal for the Nats.

With how well he is pitching, Griffin should be a highly attractive trade chip. A lot of contenders need starting pitching right now, and Griffin should be one of the better rentals on the market. Who knows though, if the Nats keep playing as well as they have recently, will they be sellers? I still believe they will be, but it is fun to dream.

Griffin could bring in a real haul for Paul Toboni, and who knows, they could always bring him back as a free agent in the offseason. The Nats missed on a couple pitching signings this offseason, but Foster Griffin has been a grand slam for this front office. Griffin was a 30 year old soft tosser, who only had 8 career innings in the big leagues.

However, Paul Toboni believed in the changes Griffin had made to his pitch mix and mentality. That belief is paying off in a way that I don’t even think the Nats front office could have expected. Foster Griffin has been absolutely fabulous, and that is thanks to his deep and extremely well rounded pitch mix.

The 2026 Cubs are off to an historic start. It’s an exceedingly rare occurrence to have two distinct 10-game winning streaks over a team’s first 39 games. Certainly none of us have seen the Cubs do anything like this before. For what it’s worth, just from an overall standpoint, it only took the 2016 Cubs 40 games to win 29. The Cubs will take at least 41 to get there and that would mean sweeping this series. After reaching 29 wins, though, that 2016 team lost three straight. If these Cubs split their next four games, they will have matched those Cubs through 43 games.

I traditionally abhor comparisons like that. Chasing the best seasons (or best players) in your team’s history just sets you up for failure. This team is very much different than that one. But more importantly, this team could win more games than that one in the regular season and not win a championship. Or, it could lose more regular season games but go on to win anyway. While regular season success has some correlation to postseason success there are many factors that can be predictive of postseason success. That’s why I don’t like comparisons. Instead, I like to let each season breathe and be its own thing.

Through a fresh lens, I’m able to relax and enjoy myself more. To enjoy what each win can bring. Right now, I’m enjoying underestimating this team. I’m normally such an optimist when it comes to them. I feel like I’m usually a little bit disappointed because that they leave some winnable games on the table. Not this team, though. Over the first few weeks of the season, maybe they let one or two get away. But over these last 23 games? Just one game in San Diego that maybe a couple more plays might have flipped. Otherwise, this team just keeps winning. They win when everything clicks. They win when things are rough.

20 wins in 23 games. It really is quite remarkable. It’s the kind of run that an all-time great NBA team might go on. It’s usually the kind of run we only really see out of the best few NCAA hoops teams in a given year. It is a wholly remarkable streak for an MLB team to have. It’s frankly inconceivable. And a whole lot of fun. And I just don’t want it to end. Keep the greed rolling. I don’t know where all of this ends, but let’s just keep tearing up the script.

Three Positives:

• Ben Brown got things started (hat tip to two red-hot Cubs in Michael Conforto and Ian Happ for staking him a lead four batters into the game). Ben threw four innings with just one walk standing between him and perfection. I thought for sure that three innings would be the best we could possibly expect. And he beat that expectation.
• Seiya Suzuki gave the Cubs some cushion with a two-run homer. He also drew two walks and ended up scoring two total runs.
• Javier Assad threw 3.2 innings of relief, needing 12 batters to get 11 outs. Between Assad and Brown, they faced 25 Rangers and allowed two walks and one hit. The Rangers offense was kept very, very quiet.

Hat tip to just about everyone, but particularly Pete Crow-Armstrong, who had two more hits including a double the other way and stole a base. OPS .721 and climbing (wRC+ 103)

Game 39, May 8: Cubs 7, Rangers 1 (27-12)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Ben Brown (.212). 4 IP, 13 BF, 0 H, BB, 0 ER, 3 K
• Hero: Javier Assad (.194). 3.2 IP, 12 BF, H, BB, 0 ER, K (W 3-1)
• Sidekick: Seiya Suzuki (.133). 1-3, HR, BB, 2 RBI, 2 R

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Ryan Rolison (-.155). 0.1 IP, 4 BF, H, 2 BB, ER
• Goat: Carson Kelly (-.056). 0-4
• Kid: Nico Hoerner (-.052). 0-5

WPA Play of the Game: Seiya Suzuki’s two-run homer with no outs in the fourth extended the Cub lead to three. (.159)

*Rangers Play of the Game: Justin Foscue singled with runners on first and second and one out in the fifth, scoring the Rangers only run and briefly cutting the Cub lead to two. (.106)

Player of the Game:

Game 38 Winner: Shōta Imanaga received 204 of 289 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 3/Bottom 3)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Michael Conforto +12
• Shōta Imanaga +10
• Michael Bsuch +9
• Dansby Swanson/Jacob Webb/Caleb Thielbar/Phil Maton -6
• Matt Shaw -9
• Seiya Suzuki -13

Current Win Pace: 112.15 wins

Up Next: Game two of the three-game set on Saturday night in Texas. Edward Cabrera (3-0, 3.27, 41.1 IP) makes his eighth start as a Cub. He’s thrown at least five innings in every start and has allowed exactly three earned runs in five consecutive starts (winning three of those). So you kind of know what to expect out of him. In two road starts, he’s allowed three runs in 11.1 innings.

26-year-old Jack Leiter (1-3, 5.45, 38) makes his eighth start of the year. The second overall pick by the Rangers is one of five different family members to pitch professionally. Most of us know his cousin Mark Jr. best, former Cub. Al Leiter is Jack’s dad and Mark Leiter Sr. his uncle. One can only imagine what a family softball game might look like. Jack has made 45 appearances at the big league level, 42 of them starts, with a 4.91 ERA. So he hasn’t quite lived up to the hype of the 2nd overall pick yet. But he does have 43 strikeouts in his 38 innings, so the stuff is real. Last time out, he allowed five runs on five hits and a walk in 6.2 innings, striking out 10. He was the loser in that one and hasn’t won since his season debut back on March 30.

Keep finding ways to win.

Go Cubs.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (17-20) lost 2-1 (BOX SCORE)

Pecko started for Sugar Land and was solid tossing 3.2 scoreless innings while striking out 5 batters. Hendrickson pitched in relief and went 4.1 innings allowing 2 runs. The offense got on the board on a Nelson solo home run in the 9th inning but that was it as Sugar land fell 2-1.

Note: Pecko has a 1.04 ERA in Triple-A this season.

• James Nelson, DH: 2-for-4, R, HR, RBI
• CJ Alexander, LF: 2-for-4
• Carlos Perez, C: 1-for-4
• Cavan Biggio, 1B: 1-for-4
• Tommy Sacco, 2B: 1-for-2, BB

• Ethan Pecko, RHP: 3.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
• Sam Carlson, RHP: 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Josh Hendrickson, LHP: 4.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
• Alimber Santa, RHP: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (14-16) won 11-8 (BOX SCORE)

The Hooks got on the board in the first inning scoring 3 runs on a Sullivan solo home run, Encarnacion RBI single and Guillemette RBI single. They picked up another run in the third inning on an Austin solo home run. McPherson started for the Hooks but struggled allowing 7 runs over 3.1 innings. The Hooks picked up 3 more runs in the 5th on an Austin 2 run home run and Lytle RBI single. The offense tied things up in the 6th on a Holy steal of home. In the 7th, the Hooks took the lead on a Lytle RBI double and Garcia RBI single. The Hooks got one more in the 8th on a Whitaker RBI single. David tossed a scoreless inning in relief and the game was called due to lightning as the Hooks won 11-8.

Note: Holy is hitting .500 in Double-A.

• Joseph Sullivan, CF: 1-for-5, R, HR, RBI
• Max Holy, SS: 3-for-5, 2 R, 2B, SB
• Yamal Encarnacion, 2B: 2-for-5, 2 R, RBI, SB
• Trevor Austin, DH: 2-for-4, 3 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB, SB
• Tyler Whitaker, LF: 1-for-3, 2 R, RBI, BB, SB
• Garret Guillemette, 1B: 1-for-5, RBI
• Mason Lytle, RF: 2-for-4, R, 2B, 2 RBI
• John Garcia, C: 1-for-4, RBI
• Alberto Hernandez, 3B: 2-for-4

• Brandon McPherson, RHP: 3.1 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
• Michael Cuevas, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 1 K
• Alex Santos, RHP: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K (WIN)
• Ramsey David, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K (SAVE)

A+: Asheville Tourists (8-23) lost 13-8 (BOX SCORE)

Smith started for Asheville but struggled allowing 9 runs, 7 earned, over 1.2 innings. He was relieved by Pena who allowed 2 runs over 3.2 innings. Asheville got on the board scoring 2 runs in the 4th on a Daudet RBI single and Walker RBI groundout. They scored 2 more runs in the 5th on a Frey solo home run and Call RBI double. Rome picked up 2 more runs to extend their lead. In the 9th, the Asheville offense battled getting a 3 run home run from Frey and a solo home run from Schiavone, but unfortunately it wasn’t enough as Asheville fell 13-8.

Note: Frey is hitting .294 over his last 8 games.

• Justin Thomas, CF: 1-for-4, R, BB
• Ethan Frey, LF: 3-for-5, 2 R, 2 HR, 4 RBI
• Jason Schiavone, C: 2-for-5, 2 R, 2B, HR, RBI
• Chase Call, RF: 2-for-5, R, 2B, RBI
• Narbe Cruz, SS: 2-for-4, R, 2B
• Zach Daudet, 3B: 2-for-4, RBI
• Kyle Walker, 2B: 0-for-2, R, 2 BB

• Parker Smith, RHP: 1.2 IP, 6 H, 9 R, 7 ER, 3 BB, 1 K
• Alain Pena, RHP: 3.2 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
• Jose Guedez, RHP: 2.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• Eurys Martich, RHP: 1.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (12-19) lost 10-4 (BOX SCORE) 

Dixon started for the Woodpeckers and allowed 2 runs over 3.1 innings while striking out 7 batters. The offense got on the board in the 2nd inning scoring a run on an error. Serrano relieved Dixon but struggled allowing 5 runs, 3 earned, over 2.2 innings. The offense picked up 3 runs in the 6th scoring 2 runs on an error and another run on a Sierra RBI double. Wells relieved Serrano and allowed 3 runs as the Warbirds put the game out of reach. The Woodpeckers were unable to respond and fell 10-4.

Note: Sierra is hitting .349 over his last 13 games.

• Xavier Neyens, 3B: 1-for-3, R, BB
• Kevin Alvarez, CF: 2-for-4, R
• Juan Sierra, RF: 2-for-4, R, 2B, RBI

• Joey Dixon, RHP: 3.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K
• Jose Serrano, RHP: 2.2 IP, 3 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
• Jackson Wells, RHP: 2.0 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
• Brandon Cassedy, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Brandon Bielak – 6:05 CT

CC: Brett Gillis – 6:05 CT

AV: TBD – 5:05 CT

FV: Ryan Forcucci – 6:05 CT

Good morning ,LSB.

The Rangers lost to the Cubs last night with what was, by my count, their fourth horrible loss in five games.

Evan Grant focuses on maybe the worst defensive play in MLB this season in his game story.

Kennedi Landry writes about the weird night for Kumar Rocker.

Jeff Wilson says far and away No. 1 on the Rangers list of needs is for Corey Seager to get it in gear.

Elsewhere the Rangers offered updates on a whole heap of injured pitchers, including Cody Bradford and Jordan Montgomery.

Josh Sborz has entered baseballs mechanical maintenance program.

Grant says don’t sell off quite yet in his weekly Rangers stock report.

MLB Pipeline released its first official 2026 mock draft.

And Shawn McFarland tells the story of how rookie reliever Payton Gray has drawn inspiration from his mother’s battle with cancer.

That’s all for this morning. The Rangers look to bounce back today against the Cubs at 6:05 with Jack Leiter on the mound for Texas.

Have a great weekend!

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It's another full slate across the Major Leagues today, and there's no shortage of value in my MLB player props. I'll include Shea Langeliers, Otto Lopez, and Jack Leiter. 

Read more for my MLB picks for Saturday, May 9. 

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Shea Langeliers	Over 1.5 total bases	+100
Otto Lopez	Over 1.5 hits	+159
Jack Leiter	Over 16.5 outs recorded	-120

Shea Langeliers Over 1.5 total bases (+100)

Shea Langeliers has served as one of the Athletics' best hitters this year. He's batting .333 with 11 home runs, and Langeliers has already smacked six hits in May. The slugger has cashed the Over in total bases in three of his last five contests. While Langeliers was just 1-for-5 on Friday, he finished 2-for-5 in the finale against the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday with a long ball. 

Langeliers will face Baltimore Orioles righty Shane Baz today, who has a 4.99 ERA. Langeliers is 4-for-10 lifetime against him with a pair of doubles and a home run. Only one of his hits versus the right-hander hasn't been for extra bases. He's also hitting .323 against righties, and Baz is a very inconsistent arm.

• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MASN, NBCS-CA

Otto Lopez Over 1.5 hits (+159)

Otto Lopez has emerged as one of the top hitters in the Majors in 2026. He leads the MLB in hits with 50, and the infielder has cashed the Over in hits in back-to-back games. Lopez finished 3-for-4 in the series opener against the Washington Nationals on Friday evening, and he was also 2-for-4 on Thursday against the Baltimore Orioles. 

Lopez will be excited for this matchup as the Nats send Zack Littell to the hill, who owns an ERA north of seven. While Lopez is 0-for-3 vs. Littell, it's a small sample size, and Littell has allowed 40 hits in 32.1 innings of work this season. Lopez is batting .341 at home, and he's also hitting .454 in May so far. 

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marlins.TV, Nationals.TV

Jack Leiter Over 16.5 outs recorded (-120)

Jack Leiter may not have the best ERA early on, but he's pitching deep into games lately. The Texas Rangers starter has hit the Over in outs recorded in back-to-back outings, lasting six innings on April 27, and another 6.2 frames last time out. While he gave up nine earned runs combined in those starts, the Rangers have given him a longer leash.

He's also pitched better at home, compiling a 4.50 ERA compared to a 6.14 ERA on the road. Leiter also has just four free passes across his last three starts, which is a big reason Texas has left him out there longer than usual. Facing the Chicago Cubs won't be easy, but Leiter will battle and keep his team in the game.

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, CW33

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