Category: MLB

For much of his professional career, Cade Cavalli was somewhat of a myth to Nationals fans. A 2020 1st round pick with loads of upside, blazing his way through the minor leagues with electrifying stuff. He got a taste of the bigs in 2022, but an elbow injury during 2023 Spring Training kept him out of the spotlight and the field for the following 2+ seasons.

He fought his way back to Washington at the back end of 2025, posting decent statistics, but looking far from the prospect he once was. Many labeled him as a potential breakout candidate in 2026, but he struggled with putting hitters away in his first few outings.

However, at long last, Nats fans’ once-promised frontline starter may be knocking on the door.

Definite conclusions can’t be fully drawn from a 2-game sample, but Cavalli seems to have unlocked something. In appearances against the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets, the righty threw a combined 11.0 innings, allowed just 4 total runs, and struck out 10 hitters in back-to-back starts, something that has only been done by 4 other arms in Nationals’ history.

The stuff is ticking up, and Cavalli has simply looked in complete control of the game for much of the time. His strikeout rate has climbed from 18% in 2025 to to 27% in 2026, his HardHit% has dropped from 41% to 36%, and his Expected Batting Average Against has been lowered from .259 to .246.

Digging even deeper, his 3.82 ERA, which already registers as a decent mark, may also be discrediting just how effective Cavalli has become. To say that he’s gotten unlucky so far would be an understatement. His FIP is all the way down to a 2.82, an entire run below his ERA, and his BABIP has climbed to over .400, a clear sign that positive regression is on the horizon.

Most of the issues that plagued the beginning of his 2026 campaign stemmed from not being able to miss bats and put away hitters. In the same fashion as just about every other one of his metrics, that has changed for the better, including during his latest start against the Mets, where he generated 18 whiffs, finishing 2nd among MLB starting pitchers in that regard on April 29th.

His 5-pitch mix has found a blend of timing, movement, and command that has given opposing lineups major struggles recently. If the underlying data doesn’t do it for you, just turn on his next start, because he certainly passes the eye test. Putting it bluntly, Cavalli looks like the future of the Nationals’ rotation.

With CJ Abrams and James Wood playing like the true backbone of their offense for the foreseeable future, it’s about time that the pitching staff produced a star of their own. For all intents and purposes, Nats fans, Cade Cavalli is your guy, and it’s time to embrace him.

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The surging Seattle Mariners will be looking to keep it rolling tonight as they welcome the Kansas City Royals to T-Mobile Park.

Seattle has won two straight, and my Royals vs. Mariners predictions are eyeing Bryan Woo to set the tone for another victory.

Read more for my MLB picks for Friday, May 1.

Who will win Royals vs Mariners today: Mariners moneyline (-147)

The Seattle Mariners just took two out of three from the Minnesota Twins, winning back-to-back games to close out the series. While Bryan Woo is coming off a difficult start where he allowed seven earned runs, the righty has been dominant at home.

Across two outings in Seattle, Woo sports a 2.77 ERA, holding opponents to a .178 average. He owns a 3.86 ERA overall, and he’s coming up against a Kansas City Royals team that has been underwhelming offensively, averaging just 4.1 runs per game.

On the other side, Cole Ragans allowed seven earned runs in his last road start, and the lefty owns a 5.00 ERA overall. His road ERA balloons to 8.40, despite being dominant at home with an ERA under one. He’s held the M’s to a .194 average, but it’s a very small sample size.

COVERS INTEL: Cole Ragans has a 6.06 FIP so far, the worst of his big league career.

Royals vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Over 7 runs (-110)

While both of these teams rank 20th or worse in runs scored, Seattle, in particular, is producing more lately, scoring 12 runs across this two-game winning streak. Two of the last three meetings have also cashed the Over, and the M’s score more at home, averaging 4.67 runs.

The matchup clearly plays in their favor, too. Ragans has struggled immensely to find any consistency on the road, and Seattle is in a rhythm. Although Woo is wonderful at home, he has been a bit shaky lately, so I could see KC tagging him for a couple of runs as well.

Also, the Royals’ bullpen owns an atrocious 5.33 ERA. Seattle will win, and they will do the majority of the scoring.

Royals vs Mariners odds

• Moneyline: Kansas City +124 | Seattle -137
• Run line: Kansas City +1.5 (-167) | Seattle -1.5 (+140)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+114) | Under 7.5 (-137)

Royals vs Mariners trend

The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 50 games at home (+11.90 Units / 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Mariners.

How to watch Royals vs Mariners and game info

Royals vs Mariners latest injuries

Royals vs Mariners weather

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Although the New York Yankees couldn’t sweep the Houston Astros on the road, they remain one of the hottest teams in baseball.

With the Baltimore Orioles entering tonight's matchup facing plenty of pitching questions, we don’t expect that to change. 

Read all about it in my Orioles vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Friday, May 1.

Who will win Orioles vs Yankees today: Yankees moneyline (-175)

This is a tough spot for the Baltimore Orioles, sending Triple-A call-up Cade Povich to face one of the hottest lineups in baseball with a depleted bullpen behind him.

The New York Yankees present Povich with the same problem they’ve posed to so many starters this season: a chase-reliant arm facing the team with the lowest chase rate in baseball.

That will force Povich to rely on competitive pitches like the heater, and that introduces a whole host of issues as New York enters this game ranking first in both barrel rate and hard-hit rate against the fastball over the last month.

I’ve projected the Yankees at -200, so while we are laying some juice, it’s worth it considering the Baltimore pitching situation.

COVERS INTEL: Cade Povich's chase percentage grades in the 89th percentile, but the Yankees swing out of the zone just 25% of the time.

Orioles vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-115)

Will Warren continues to overachieve, sporting an expected ERA that’s a full run higher than his actual one, with his expected FIP telling the same story.

While I expect the Yankees to prevail, Warren will run into issues with his bottom-30th percentile hard-hit rate, and the Orioles should do their part to help plate a couple of runs in the Bronx tonight.

Orioles vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Orioles +150 | Yankees -175
• Run line: Orioles +1.5 (-155) | Yankees -1.5 (+125)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)

Orioles vs Yankees trend

New York has cashed the moneyline in 34 of its last 50 games (+7.90 Units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Yankees.

How to watch Orioles vs Yankees and game info

Orioles vs Yankees latest injuries

Orioles vs Yankees weather

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It's a busy Friday in Major League Baseball with 15 games on tap, and a litany of MLB player props to choose from.

We'll kick things off in the Mile High city, where Ozzie Albies looks to stay red-hot against a pitcher he's lit up regularly.

Read below for the rest of my favorite MLB picks for Friday, May 1.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Ozzie Albies	3+ total bases	+140
Jacob Misiorowksi	7+ strikeouts	-136
Andy Pages	1+ doubles	+250

Ozzie Albies 3+ total bases (+140)

Ozzie Albies has been tearing it up for the MLB-best Braves, with hits in 12 straight games, including picking up at least three total bases in five of his last seven games.

He has absolutely owned Rockies starter Jose Quintana, going 9-for-19. That's a .474 average, and a slugging percentage of 1.053, as he's homered off him three times, adding two doubles and four RBI.

There's not a better situation for him to keep raking.

• Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: BravesVision, Rockies.TV

Jacob Misiorowksi 7+ strikeouts (-136)

You can chase some better juice, like +128 odds for 8+ strikeouts, but Jacob Misiorowski is facing the Nationals for the first time in his career, and that's always a factor to consider.

This still feels like a decent number and odds, considering the Brewers' righty has recorded at least seven strikeouts in five of his six starts on the season.

Washington isn't exactly looking for great pitches. As a team, they're tied for 19th in team strikeouts per game at 8.72.

• Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Brewers.TV, Nationals.TV

Andy Pages 1+ doubles (+250)

Andy Pages continues to hit well after a forgettable postseason run, 12th in the majors with a .321 average, as the Dodgers open a set with St. Louis on Friday.

He has hits in five of his last six games, including three games with at least a double. Pages has picked up at least a hit in two straight vs. the Cards, including a two-double game.

It's a nice time to take a flier on a double, especially with those nice +250 odds.

• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SNLA, Cardinals.TV

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

April offered an early snapshot of who the Royals are – for better and worse. Mostly worse. The Royals ended the month tied for the fourth-worst record in baseball. While they’re not an expensive flaming dumpster fire like the Mets, Phillies, or Red Sox, the start is a huge disappointment for a team that had designs on making a run to the post-season.

How did the Royals get here? Here are the numbers that defined their April.

73

That was the Royals wRC+ with runners in scoring position (RISP), dead last in baseball. Overall, they hit .221/.316/.306 and had a 43.9 percent flyball rate, second-highest out of any team with RISP. Just 12.8 percent of Royals baserunners end up scoring, the sixth-lowest total in baseball. The bulk of the issues have come from the middle of the lineup, with expected run producers Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino among the worst in baseball in clutch situations. Both players had over 100 RBI last year, but Salvy is hitting just .135 with RISP this year, while Vinnie is hitting just .097.

This isn’t a new problem either, the Royals struggled to hit with runners on in the first half of last year. They improved significantly in the second half, but another slow start has fans wondering if the team needs to change their approach or even make a change in the hitting coach department.

13

Royals baserunners have made 13 Outs on the Bases so far this season, fourth-most in baseball. They’ve also been picked off six times, one shy of the league lead. Their success rate on steals is just 70 percent, the sixth-worst in baseball. Overall they’re in the middle of the league in Baserunning Runs, so I won’t go as far as to say they’re a terrible baserunning club. They have some speed, and they like to be aggressive, and when a team is struggling, you can understand trying to make something happen with your legs.

But for a team that struggles to score runs, they can ill-afford to give up baserunners. You can excuse some aggressiveness, but some of the gaffes seem to be the result of poor focus or preparation.

2.6

The Royals moved in the fences at the K this year to make it a more neutral park, and the team has responded by being a solid offensive team at home. They’re hitting .275/.364/.445 in the friendly confines of the K, for a 121 wRC+ that ranks as the fifth-best in baseball, and scoring a healthy 5.4 runs per game.

Road games have been an entirely different matter. The Royals are averaging just 2.6 runs-per-game on road trips, by far the worst in baseball. Salvy is hitting .161 on road trips. Isaac Collins must really miss Kansas City BBQ – he’s 1-for-32 on the road with a 41 percent strikeout rate.

It’s not like the Royals aren’t hitting home runs on the road. Instead, their poor hitting is due to hitting just .202 on the road, the worst in baseball. Maybe John Sherman is coddling them?

5.33

The Royals were the only team in baseball last year that did not lose a game they led going into the ninth inning. That streak ended in the second game of this year when closer Carlos Estévez coughed six runs in the ninth in a loss to the Braves. He was immediately shelved to investigate his velocity drop, and the bullpen has struggled ever since. The once-dominant Lucas Erceg has been inconsistent, and the back of the bullpen has been a bit of a mess. Adding injury to insult, the pitching depth has begun to be deplted with Stephen Kolek and Bailey Falter joining Estévez on the Injured List and Ryan Bergert out for the rest of the season following Tommy John surgery.

Daniel Lynch IV has been a bright spot, and Nick Mears and Matt Strahm have looked good at times, so there is hope the bullpen can find its footing. But the team is 1-5 in one-run games so far, and the offense does not leave the bullpen much room for error.

3.5

Despite stumbling to a poor start, the Royals end the month just 3.5 games back of first place in a mediocre division. No team in the AL Central has a winning record. After a series in Seattle this weekend, the Royals will have a stretch of ten consecutive games against divisional foes, and a hot stretch could get them right back in the mix. Baseball is a marathon and there is still plenty of season left to be played. The Royals have been a very flawed team, but they still have one of the best players in baseball and some talented players that can turn things around. But they’ll need their May numbers to bloom far more than their April showers.

No team ever wants to be in the same sentence with the 1962 Mets, especially one with a top-two payroll that entered the season as one of the top-five favorites to win the World Series. 

But that's where the 2026 Mets find themselves on May 1, following a 10-21 start that has been as unthinkable as it has been ghastly. 

In fact, the Mets are off to an even worse start than their 1962 counterparts, a team that was in its first year of existence.

It has taken a confluence of unfortunate events for them to arrive at this point.

There have been crippling injuries (first to Juan Soto, then to Francisco Lindor), underperformance from nearly every key player on the roster, less than ideal weather for most of the games they've played, and an absurd schedule that has resulted in New York having flown to the West Coast three times already.

But good teams overcome obstacles. And the Mets, to this point, are a bad team.

As they went through a 12-game losing streak before eventually snapping it at home -- only to go on to have a 3-6 homestand against the Twins, Rockies, and Nationals -- most of the noise surrounded manager Carlos Mendoza.

Mendoza, who also presided over the slow collapse that resulted in the 2025 Mets going from the best team in baseball in June to out of the playoffs, is in the last guaranteed year of his contract. When it comes to his future, there are two big things to ponder.

First, it's reasonable to wonder whether Mendoza is putting the Mets in the best position to succeed. Specifically, their constant mental and physical mistakes are alarming, and something (fairly or not) to lay at the feet of the manager. As is the comfort Mark Vientos had running through a stop sign before getting nailed at the plate, and then being defiant about it afterwards. 

There have also been a host of questionable tactical moves, including using handedness as a reason to pinch-hit Austin Slater for the red-hot MJ Melendez in a crucial moment of Thursday's loss.

Second is whether or not a manager change at this juncture would impact anything for the Mets, with most of the players simply not performing. It has worked so far for the Red Sox and Phillies (whether their recent successes are a coincidence, a byproduct, or a bit of both).

A third, smaller thing to consider is what the point of a baseball manager is at all if they aren't going to get blame or credit. To put it in simper terms: if the Mets think Mendoza is helping them, he should stay. If they think he's hindering them, he should not.

But to go any further on the topic of Mendoza would be to ignore the main reason the Mets are in this position. And on Friday afternoon, president of baseball operations David Stearns rendered any discussion about the manager's immediate future moot, noting the team did not intend to move on from him.

Mendoza is managing a roster that was given to him by Stearns and the front office, following an offseason where the core of the team was gutted and replaced.

But this isn't about breaking up the core (which was understandable given how the 2025 season ended) or how those players are faring with their new teams (Pete Alonso has an 87 OPS+, Edwin Diaz is hurt, Brandon Nimmo started hot and is regressing but still has an OPS above .800, and Jeff McNeil has been about average).

For the record, I wrote on Oct. 30 that the Mets should give Alonso a contract for five years and around $125 million. Perhaps that would've been enough to get him to stay before the Orioles swooped in.

In any event, this is about the players Stearns chose to replace that core with, not the fact that he dismantled it.

In fairness, there were many people (myself included) who got on board with what Stearns did after the shock of his initial teardown wore off. Late in the offseason, Stearns pounced while reshaping the Mets into a team most thought would be a serious World Series contender.

But while the ceiling was unmistakably high, the floor was dangerously low.

That things have gone wrong to this degree is shocking, but it was possible to see a lot of it coming.

When you add injury-prone players such as Luis Robert Jr. and Jorge Polanco, the likeliest outcome is that those players will deal with injuries.

In the case of Polanco, his addition would've made more sense if he was viewed as mostly a designated hitter from the jump -- something he's expected to be upon his return from the IL.

After Alonso signed his five-year deal with the Orioles, I argued that the Mets should try to replace him by adding a legitimate power bat or someone who offered a good blend of offense and defense at first base, such as Willson Contreras.

Turning to Polanco at first base has not worked (because of injuries, not defense), and has resulted in lots of playing time there for Mark Vientos, whose regular presence in the lineup is hard to justify (as was noted here in December) given how he performed in 2025.

The offensive struggles of Bo Bichette shouldn't be a ding on Stearns. But, as is the case with every other big player who was brought in this offseason, Bichette had no experience playing in the New York market (or, like Devin Williams, recent trouble in it). The ability to perform in New York is valuable, and not every player has it.

Of all the moves, the most polarizing one was trading Nimmo for Marcus Semien. And while Semien wasn't Nimmo's replacement (that's actually Carson Benge), it's understandable that Semien and Nimmo continue to be linked.

I reject the notion that the Mets "salary-dumped" Nimmo. Instead, I viewed it then and now as a decision to get out of what Stearns felt would be the final years of a contract that is expected to age poorly. And while Nimmo's offense is still above average, his defense is well below average and regressing at a rapid rate.

Again, this is about who the Mets brought in, not who they shipped out. And in the case of Semien, they added a player whose offense was already regressing mainly because they felt his defense would be worth the tradeoff. So far, it hasn't been.

Another big issue is the amount of bounce backs the Mets were relying on, especially in the starting rotation.

On Oct. 2, I wrote that aside from Clay Holmes, all of the Mets' veteran starting pitchers had huge question marks ahead of 2026, adding that the club should be after a front-line starter and a middle of the rotation starter.

They added only Freddy Peralta.

Before the season started, the possible rotation issues remained clear, especially when it came to Kodai Senga's health and Sean Manaea's diminished velocity.

Now, a month and change into the season, Senga pitched his way out of the rotation before landing on the IL, Manaea has been relegated to low-leverage relief innings, and David Peterson (one of the other aforementioned question marks) is also out of the rotation. 

The struggles of some of the Mets' rotation members also led the Mets to carry three and sometimes four long relievers for a decent stretch of games, something that hamstrung the bullpen.

The worst-case scenario playing out for pretty much every big acquisition the Mets made this past offseason and every bounce back candidate they had is mind boggling. But it's a failure Stearns is going to have to own if things don't turn around.

What makes the 2026 season to this point so demoralizing for the fan base is the fact that the thrill of the 2024 run to the NLCS paved the way for a 2025 at Citi Field where the vibes were off the charts, even as the team slowly collapsed. The ballpark was packed, the chanting was spontaneous, and the decibel level of the crowd was high.

Part of that had to do with a connection the fans had to certain players who are now on other teams, but most of it had to do with winning. Winning cures all. It could even cure the 2026 Mets. But if that winning never comes, Stearns' 2025-26 offseason will be a cautionary tale.

We are now in May, and we already looked at pitching highlights of April, so let’s shift the focus to the offense.

Andy Pages got off to a scorching start, won National League player of the week, and during the month hit .321/.366/.518 with a 145 wRC+. He leads the team in hits (36) and RBI (25) while manning center field.

Max Muncy leads the team with nine home runs, while hitting .287/.374/.594 with a 166 wRC+.

A down month for Shohei Ohtani at the plate still saw him hit .273/.406/.491 with six home runs, four stolen bases, and a 144 wRC+.

Dalton Rushing is second on the team with seven home runs despite only 52 plate appearances to date, while hitting .348/.423/.848 with a 244 wRC+.

Today’s question is who was your Dodgers position player of March/April?

The Athletics are out to a better-than-expected start as they sit atop the division with a 17-14 record and a one-and-a-half game lead over the Seattle Mariners. It’s only the first month of the season but April went about as good as you could hope for the A’s as they have the third-best record in baseball so far. They had a rough schedule that saw them on the road lots during the first month but on the bright side that just means more home games the rest of the way. That’ll be helpful down the line when the A’s are tired and don’t want to hit the road.

The calendar has now turned to May though and things will only get harder from here. The target is now on our backs and teams in the division know they can’t arrive to Sacramento and expect to automatically get two or three wins. This group of A’s has a lot more heart and is much more scrappy than the versions we saw over the past two years. That doesn’t mean there aren’t things to consider or watch moving forward. Things like…

1. How long is Jacob Lopez’s leash?

Lopez entered camp this year seemingly with nothing to prove but health after a solid rookie season that saw him post a 4.07 ERA across 21 games (17 starts). He helped to solidify the middle of an Athletics rotation that needed arms and really saved the starting staff with his out-of-nowhere season. Considered a throw-in in the trade that also brought Jeffrey Springs to the A’s, Lopez looked like a steal, and an under control one at that.

But so far this year things have not gone according to plan. Lopez’s spot in the starting rotation was not as secure as fans thought entering spring, with only the veterans Severino, Springs and Civale assured of starting roles to begin the year. Fellow starter Luis Morales was ahead of Lopez on the depth chart but he only made two starts for the big league squad before the team had seen enough and demoted him to Triple-A, replacing him in the rotation with J.T. Ginn, who has been a steady presence at the backend of the rotation since joining.

Severino’s contract makes it certain that he has a long leash. Springs has been the team’s best pitcher in the first month, and Civale is looking like a steal of a bargain for what he’s doing right now. Ginn is holding his own as well, and that means all signs point towards Lopez being the odd man out when the A’s want to get a look at a different young arm.

Lopez hasn’t done a whole lot to inspire confidence that he’s about to turn a corner. The 28-year-old has a rough 5.84 ERA this season and more walks (21) than strikeouts (18). He ended last year on the IL with a flexor strain in his pitching elbow, a worrying injury that made him a slight question mark all offseason long. It’s possible he’s not as healed as he thinks and is making bad adjustments to compensate, and with Mason Barnett looking good in Las Vegas Lopez’s time in the rotation could be short. He’s scheduled to get the ball on Saturday against Cleveland and he desperately needs a quality outing to ensure his spot in the starting staff.

2. What’s the plan when Denzel Clarke is healthy?

The gifted center fielder can certainly play his position as well as anyone in the game and a Gold Glove feels like a given if he gets enough playing time. It feels like the young outfielder is taking away hits and robbing home runs on a nightly basis, and that’s only barely hyperbole. He’s one of the best to play the position for the Athletics in a long, long time.

But the 26-year-old is hitting just .170 with a 24/4 K/BB ratio during the first month of the 2026 season. Those are even worse stats than last year when he was 26% worse than league average. This year? The 25-year-old is 84%(!) worse than league average. That’s… not good. At all. It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise either though as Clarke struggles both during Spring Training and during Team Canada’s time in the World Baseball Classic.

While A’s fans had high hopes that Clarke could at least be serviceable in the batting order, he’s instead become a black hole, an automatic out that has cost the team plenty of times already. Clarke had shown promise in the upper minors and the A’s were ready to push the envelope with him just to get his glove to the big leagues faster. He was never going to be a speedster or a power threat, but the way he looks in the batter’s box makes one think he should not only be in the minors, but perhaps even back in Double-A.

Clarke needs to completely readjust his approach at the plate, but that’s hard to do in the middle of the season. This injury that he suffered shouldn’t prevent him from getting back out onto the field for too much longer, but it might behoove the A’s to let Clarke find himself with his bat down in Triple-A until he figures things out. That’s not what the Athletics were planning for when they essentially handed him the center field job to begin the year, but that’s where we are now. Will he be reinstated and immediately retake his spot in center upon his return?

3. Will the A’s have a closer?

Right-handed Joel Kuhnel has gotten the bulk of save opportunities since his promotion on April 7th. He’s 4-for-4 in that regard while allowing only three earned runs in that time, and his 2.70 ERA is looking mighty nice in the early going.

This has been an out-of-nowhere development for the bullpen. Kuhnel was brought aboard this offseason on a minor league deal after spending the past six seasons bouncing around the league. Before this season he hadn’t had much in the way of chances in the big leagues other than a 53 appearance season way back in 2022, when he posted a 6.36 ERA for the Reds. There wasn’t much thought then at the time other than “nice depth”, but Kuhnel is making the most of his opportunity right now.

But Kuhnel ran into some problems in the second game of the Royals series, allowing a run and giving the Royals a chance to have a late-game comeback. Thankfully Mark Kotsay came out to get his right-hander before things got more out of hand, giving Mark Leiter Jr. the chance to nail down his third save of the season. So what’s going to happen over the next month? Is Kuhnel our guy until he inevitably blows a save, and then it’s back up for grabs from that point on? Is his time as the closer already over? The A’s had another save opportunity yesterday and Kotsay went with Jack Perkins to finish off KC.

The hope is that the journeyman righty can continue to solidify the backend of the A’s bullpen. It worked out for the A’s at times last year but having a closer-by-committee isn’t a long-term way to use the relief unit. Everyone having their set roles and knowing when or where they might be used is beneficial to all those arms that are asked to come into games and lock down the win. It’s a highly stressful job, being a reliever in the big leagues, and asking guys to be ready at a moment’s notice for the entirety of a baseball game is just another added stress. Maybe Kotsay can press all the right buttons for six whole months (and hopefully playoffs), but there’s a reason a team like the Padres shelled out big time to acquire Mason Miller last year. Here’s to hoping we can lock someone into the closer’s role sooner rather than later.

Brian Cashman was ready for a change. A 36-year-old Robin Ventura was showing signs of wear, slashing just .251/.344/.392. On a star-studded Yankees roster, his spot at third base seemed the most plausible position to upgrade. It just so happened that the Reds were in the midst of a fire sale and were looking to move a third baseman of their own, one six years younger and in the middle of a career year.

In separate moves, the Yankees GM spun Ventura off to the Dodgers and swung a deal with Cincinnati to replace him with one Aaron Boone. Cashman could never imagine how integral Boone would be to his team’s fortunes over the next two-plus decades. What he did know was that, to acquire him, he’d need to part with his most promising pitching prospect.

Brandon Allen Falker Claussen
Born: May 1, 1979 (Rapid City, SD)
Yankees Tenure: 2003

Brandon Claussen did not begin his journey in pro ball with much fanfare. The third player ever selected out of Howard College in Big Spring, Texas, he was taken by the Yankees in the now-defunct 34th round of the 1998 MLB Draft. As is the case for any unheralded prospect who makes it to the show, Claussen took a slow and steady path up the food chain. After proving himself at Rookie Ball, Low A, Single-A, and High-A, the left-hander broke out at Double-A in 2001, going 9-2 with a 2.13 ERA in 21 starts. Baseball America took notice, ranking Claussen as 37th-best prospect in baseball before the 2002 season.

Claussen made 15 starts at Triple-A that year and appeared to be on the doorstep of the Bronx. That’s when his ascent was stunted by the dreaded Tommy John surgery, ending his ‘02 campaign. “This isn’t career-threatening,” said Mark Newman, the Yankees’ senior vice president for baseball operations, encouragingly of the team’s top pitching prospect. “They do it with great effectiveness now. He’s a strong, hard-working kid, so he’s got as good a chance as anybody.”

The injury may actually have kept Claussen in pinstripes. He was a hot name in July trade talks, especially with the Blue Jays, who reportedly wanted him as the centerpiece of a deal for outfielder Raúl Mondesi. Toronto settled on a less highly-regarded lefty, Scott Wiggins, instead; they were mostly just happy to unload the surly Mondesi’s contract.

Newman’s optimistic angle on Claussen was proven right, as he returned to game action in late April. He bounced back admirably in 2003, making 11 starts at Triple-A to the tune of a 2.75 ERA. “He is quick to return from [Tommy John], but he feels he is very healthy,” Gordon Blakeley, the Yankees’ senior vice president for baseball operations, said. ”His stuff is back where it was before the injury.”

In the midst of this run of excellence, Claussen was called up for a spot start during a rare multi-stadium doubleheader against the Mets in order to keep the rest of the Yankees’ staff on regular rest. It was to be his only start for the team that drafted him. Claussen performed well, pitching around eight hits while allowing two runs (one earned) in 6.1 innings. Playing on the road at Shea Stadium, he even added a base hit and an RBI to cap off a stellar debut. “I was just going to go out and play my game,” he said after the win. “That’s what got me here.” The southpaw impressed his Hall of Fame manager as well. “His poise was unbelievable,” said Joe Torre. “He was very impressive.”

Despite a crowded starting rotation, the Yankees’ top pitching prospect appeared to have a bright future in pinstripes. But there was another major development during that doubleheader against the Mets that would end up cutting his Yankees tenure short. Torre benched Ventura for both games, noting that “his bat’s a little slow now.” After Claussen’s scheduled second start was rained out, he was optioned down to Triple-A as the deadline hot stove began to reach a smolder. The Yankees were looking to augment their bullpen and everyone from the Rangers (who were shopping Ugueth Urbina) to the Mets (Armando Benítez) to the Pirates (Scott Sauerbeck) and the Reds (Scott Williamson) were reportedly interested in Claussen as the centerpiece of their return.

Cashman held strong in his desire to retain the talented southpaw but relented once Boone was on the table. On July 31st, the GM shipped Claussen and fellow lefty Charlie Manning off to Cincinnati for the third baseman. “Brandon Claussen, in our opinion, is the real deal,” Cashman said after the move was finalized. “In terms of getting top talent, you have to rob Peter to pay Paul.” As had happened so many times before, the New York press suspected that the Boss had put his thumb on the scale to force his front office to sacrifice the future for the present. “The deal seems more like a hurried decision to appease George Steinbrenner, the principal owner, than a move that instantly addresses a primary weakness or provides an incredible player,” wrote Jack Curry for The New York Times.

Boone’s impact on the Yankees — first as a hero in the 2003 ALCS, then as the man whose offseason ACL injury opened the door for New York to acquire Alex Rodriguez, and finally as the team’s skipper for eight years and counting — is well-documented. For his part, Claussen finished the ‘03 season with Triple-A Louisville and would spend the next three seasons shuttling between there and Cincinnati.

In 57 starts over those years, he never fulfilled the potential that had enthralled much of the league, going 15-27 with a 5.12 ERA while walking 120 and striking out just 223 in 309.2 innings. In June of 2006, the 27-year-old was placed on the DL with a rotator cuff tear which would require surgery and end his days in a Reds uniform. The Nationals signed him to a one-year deal for the ‘07 season. After seven minor-league starts, he hung up his spikes for good, joining his father-in-law’s family tire business.

As of 2023, he was still in that line of work, running his own wheel repair shop in Lubbock, Texas. Rustin Dodd of The Athleticwrote a fantastic piece on Claussen that year in which he revealed his perspective on his reputation as a “bust.”

I think there’s so much emphasis on looking at the occupation to make you happy,” he said. “But what I’ve learned is a job is a job. If it’s a baseball, if it’s changing tires, it is what it is. It’s who you do it for and who you do it with.”

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers begin a six-game road trip as they visit the St. Louis Cardinals tonight.

There’s some added intrigue to this series as LA has dropped two straight, while the Cardinals have won four in a row.

My Dodgers vs. Cardinals predictions and MLB picks expect the defending champs to land the first blow on Friday, May 1.

Who will win Dodgers vs Cardinals today: Dodgers moneyline (-167)

We’re getting a discounted price on the best team in the league because they’re on the road, have dropped two straight, and are facing a club riding a four-game win streak.

Meanwhile, the St. Louis Cardinals are just 7-8 at home, and Matthew Liberatore’s 5.82 xERA and 6.40 FIP could be trouble against a Los Angeles Dodgers lineup that crushes left-handed pitching (129 wRC+).

L.A. comes in fully rested after an off day, while St. Louis played Thursday and has a taxed bullpen, with six relievers throwing 29+ pitches over the last three days.

COVERS INTEL: Matthew Liberatore opened the season with a noticeable uptick in velocity, but that trend is now heading the wrong way. He averaged 93.4 mph on his four-seamer in his last start, down nearly a full tick from his season average of 94.3 mph.

Dodgers vs Cardinals Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-102)

Liberatore has long struggled to keep batters from reaching base (1.39 WHIP), and LA’s star-studded lineup should capitalize.

His pitching counterpart, Emmet Sheehan, is dealing with decreased velocity. He’s averaging 94.6 mph on his heater after sitting at 95.4 in each of his first two seasons in the league.

The young hurler has an underwhelming 91 Stuff+, and the Cardinals are good enough against RHP (104 wRC+) to push across a few runs on Friday.

Dodgers vs Cardinals odds

• Moneyline: Dodgers -167 | Cardinals +154
• Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (+100) | Cardinals +1.5 (-120)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-102) | Under 8.5 (-118)

Dodgers vs Cardinals trend

Los Angeles is 5-1 SU against left-handed starters this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Cardinals.

How to watch Dodgers vs Cardinals and game info

Dodgers vs Cardinals latest injuries

Dodgers vs Cardinals weather

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Christian Scott’s return to the big league level was rough. 

After completing the long journey back following Tommy John surgery, the young right-hander appeared to have found his groove over his second and third outings at the Triple-A level.

Scott gave up seven runs in his regular season opener for Syracuse, but bounced back nicely to allow just two runs while striking out 12 batters in 10.1 innings of work over the next two starts. 

So with the back end of the Mets’ rotation struggling, they decided to give him a shot. 

“The way Scotty's been throwing the ball, we knew it was just going to be a matter of time before he was going to help us -- here we are giving him that opportunity, he's earned it and we're excited,” Carlos Mendoza said.  

Things, however, didn’t quite go as planned. 

The 26-year-old, who was calm and collected in his first call-up back in 2024, was a bit overwhelmed by the moment as he lasted just 1.1 innings before being pulled. 

Scott simply could not find the zone, issuing a career-high five walks and hitting a batter.

“It started to get away [from me],” he told Anthony DiComo on MLB.com. “It was just like first walk, second walk, and that’s not really who I am -- then you start aiming. You try to throw the ball over the plate. It kind of spiraled on me.”

The Mets sent Scott back down to Syracuse one day later, but with Kodai Senga landing on the IL earlier this week, it created another opportunity for him to show he belongs at this level. 

Scott is set to take the ball in Friday night’s series-opener against the Angels. 

“I still trust my stuff and believe in it," he said. "I know if I go out there, I belong at this level. So I’m not too worried about it. Definitely something to learn from, to take with me to the next couple of starts and throughout my career.

“You can’t let the moment get too big like that, especially when things start to go south -- I’m excited for the opportunity to come back and be able to pitch again.”

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Let's finish the week off in a big way after Yordan Alvarez decided to go deep in Game 2 after we bet him to go yard in Game 1 of yesterday's doubleheader.

It's May, which means it's getting nicer, and it's time to pick off those MLB player props.

I want a piece of the White Sox bats vs. German Marquez and the San Diego bullpen, and the Blue Jays can stack runs vs. a starter they've already tagged once this year. 

These are my favorite home run props for Friday, May 1. 

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Miguel Vargas	+570
Jesus Sanchez	+540
Hunter Goodman	+369

Home run pick: Miguel Vargas (+570)

The Chicago White Sox have one of the best hitting matchups on the slate, and Miguel Vargas at +570 offers the best +EV in the lineup.

Vargas has boosted his OPS from .593 to .805 over the last 10 days, powered by four homers. He’s drawing more walks than strikeouts and is seeing the ball well with a .511 OBP.

The real target here is Germán Márquez and a San Diego Padres bullpen that has been hit around lately. Márquez owns some of the worst Blast Contact numbers, his fly balls are leaving the yard at a high rate, and he has one of the worst xFIPs among MLB starters.

Add in a Padres bullpen with the third-worst ERA over the last two weeks, and it sets up well for Chicago bats.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Padres.TV, Chicago Sports Network

Home run pick: Jesus Sanchez (+540)

Let’s take a left-handed bat vs. Simeon Woods Richardson, who is firmly circled as a fade.

He faced the Toronto Blue Jays three starts ago and got shelled for five runs while lasting just 12 outs, with Toronto putting up 10 runs in that game.

Outside of José Quintana, Woods Richardson owns the worst xFIP among today’s starters, and his Blast Contact numbers are also near the bottom. He’s allowed a home run in every start this year, and the Jays benefit from recent familiarity.

The Minnesota Twins bullpen could also give it up, carrying a 5.40 ERA over the last 14 days — the fourth-worst mark in baseball over that stretch.

Jesús Sánchez at this price is the play for me. His swing speed ranks among the best on the team, and his fast-swing rate trails only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. I’ll take him over Dalton Varsho, who is 50 points shorter. 

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Twins.TV, SN1

Home run pick: Hunter Goodman (+369)

With a poor weather slate, let’s head to Coors Field and take the most probable home-run hitter in that game, per Covers MLB prop projections.

I have Grant Holmes circled as a fade: He gave up a pair of dingers in his last start, and his Blast Contact numbers, HR/FB rate, and xFIP all point to more longballs coming. He’s also pitched at Coors before (2024) and allowed five runs over five innings.

Hunter Goodman has homered in three straight series and launched two vs. the Reds just two games ago. He has four HRs over his last six games and hasn’t even needed Coors to go deep this year, with nine homers already on the road in 2026.

There aren’t many +EV home-run looks today, but Goodman is always worth a play at +350 or better

• Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: COLR, BravesVsn

Today’s HR parlay

Miguel Vargas	Bet Now +16154
Jesus Sanchez
Hunter Goodman

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Rick Rizzs Happy Totals: 16
Dan Wilson Tough One Tonights: 16
Run Differential: +7

2025: 18-12, +23
2024: 17-13, +12
2023: 12-16, +1
2022: 11-10, +16

wRC+: 105 (7th)
Rotation ERA-/FIP-: 98/97 (15th)/(12th)
Bullpen ERA-/FIP-: 84/86 (7th)/(6th)
OAA: -15 (30th)
BsR: -0.9 (23rd)

Mariners fWAR leader: Randy Arozarena, 1.1
Mariners rWAR leader: Cole Young, 1.9

Beef Boy Bombs: 7
Josh Naylor SB: 4 for 6
Julio K%: 22.1% (lowest March/April yet)
Julio EV: 88.2 (lowest March/April yet)
J.P. BB%: 18.8%
Luke Raley xwOBA: .385
Dominic Canzone EV: 95.5
Brendan Donovan wOBA-xwOBA: +.084

Matt Brash Changeup RV/100: 7.330 (19th highest among 2,051 pitches)
Andrés Muñoz SwStr%: 19.1%
Gabe Speier Haricuts: 1 (worst of his career)

Logan Gilbert swords: 11 (5th)

Luis Castillo Fastball Velo: 94.8
Luis Castillo Fastball Velo, March/April 2025: 94.8

George Kirby K/BB: 3.09
George Kirby K/BB, 2022-2025: 6.68
George Kirby xERA: 2.85

Emerson Hancock K%-BB%: 19.7%
Emerson Hancock K%-BB%, 2023-2025: 8.0%

Kade Anderson K%-BB%: 38.2%
Ryan Sloan K%-BB%: 14.3%
Lazaro Montes K%: 31.2%
Luke Stevenson wRC+: 175
Colt Emerson MLB G: 0

ABS Challenges: 41 for 70

Your Favorite Stats Not Listed Here: In the comments

Playoff Position: Mariners hold Wild Card 2, sit 1.5 back of Athletics in AL West

ABS: Cole Young, +1.64 WPA
ABS Discourse: Luis Castillo, -0.95 WPA