Monday Morning Texas Rangers Update

Feb 21, 2026; Mesa, Arizona, USA; Texas Rangers third baseman Jonah Bride (37) makes the play for an out against the Chicago Cubs in the second inning at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images | Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

Good morning.

Shawn McFarland writes about the Texas Rangers getting their first look at MacKenzie Gore in his exhibition debut yesterday.

McFarland checks out what we learned over the first week of game action at Surprise with the Rangers sorting through their bullpen options.

Kennedi Landry writes that the Rangers plan to be more aggressive on the basepaths with new manager Skip Schumaker at the helm.

Evan Grant writes that Schumaker believes recently injured Cody Freeman can still contribute to the vibes in Surprise.

At The Athletic, Will Sammon writes about new Ranger outfielder Brandon Nimmo itching to take on the role of mentor in Texas.

McFarland writes about undrafted reliever Ryan Lobus and his quest to make a name for himself in Surprise this spring.

Landry names right-handed hitting veteran bench option Mark Canha as a dark horse candidate to make the Opening Day roster for the Rangers.

And, McFarland notes that the Rangers intend to have Jacob deGrom make his 2026 spring debut in the coming days.

Have a nice day!

What is one impression you got from watching the Phillies this weekend?

Feb 21, 2026; Dunedin, Florida, USA; Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Justin Crawford (80) doubles during the first inning at TD Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

We finally got some live Phillies baseball that we can watch this weekend and that means we can make some initial impressions. There were two games that we could draw from: one in which some of the kids started and played a bit and one where the regular lineup looked a little more intact. It was enough to lead with this question today: what is the first impression you have from watching the Phillies this weekend?

Most eyes are going to be drawn to Justin Crawford, perhaps rightly so. He’s one of the rookies that is expected to not only make the initial Opening Day roster, but he’s also expected to produce at least a little bit. How he fares this year is going to go a long way in determining future roster decisions, so it is natural to be drawn to him. There were others that were interesting though, so which ones?

Digging through Mike Elias’ vision for this Orioles’ bullpen

SARASOTA, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 11: Ryan Helsley #21 of the Baltimore Orioles warms up for practice at Ed Smith Stadium on February 11, 2026 in Sarasota, Florida. (Photo by Todd Olszewski/Baltimore Orioles/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The team that the Orioles have assembled ahead of the 2026 season is strong. It’s not perfect, but there is plenty of upside, and it seems like the front office has done a decent job of building in depth to help absorb the injuries that have already come. However, one area that has left some onlookers concerned is the bullpen.

The Orioles’ relief corps was not great last year. Their 4.57 ERA ranked 25th in MLB, and their 1.9 fWAR was 23rd. They struggled with walks (4.12 BB/9), the long ball (1.21 HR/9), and some bad luck (.308 BABIP, 27th in MLB).

But there were a lot of moving parts throughout the season. Félix Bautista got hurt again. Bryan Baker, Gregory Soto, Seranthony Domínguez, and Andrew Kittredge were all traded away. That pushed the Orioles to basically hold tryouts throughout their bullpen in the second half of the season. Some worked out, some didn’t.

Over the winter, the Orioles made three significant moves involving their bullpen. They signed Ryan Helsley to be their closer, re-acquired Kittredge, and then dealt away Kade Strowd. The result is a relief group that is a bit more proven than the one that ended the 2025 campaign, but with plenty of questions.

Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias was asked for his perspective on the ’pen just before the start of spring training.

“I think it’s a good group as well,” he said. “Ryan Helsley’s going to be a big addition at the back end of the ‘pen. We’ve got veteran guys in set-up roles. We’ve got young guys, some of whom have options, that showed us some intriguing things last year…But I think we’ve got a very strong bullpen and I think we have a demonstrated ability with our pitching program and our pitching coaches to bring in guys from the outside, hopefully coach them up a little bit, and continue to improve players. So I think the bullpen’s going to be very good.”

(h/t MASN’s Roch Kubatko)

Trying to predict which bullpens will be good and those that won’t be year to year can be a fool’s errand. It’s a naturally volatile position group. But the Orioles haven’t done too much to stabilize their expectations.

Helsely had a 7.20 ERA over 30 games with the Mets, his first time pitching for a team other than the Cardinals. Keegan Akin was pushed into more high leverage spots late in 2025. He gave up a .279/.352/.508 slash line in those opportunities. Yennier Cano walked 3.72 batters per nine innings and had a 5.12 ERA last year, a total disaster.

Those are some of the “veteran guys” that Elias will be leaning on. If they struggle again, it will be up to an unproven stable of intriguing arms.

Dietrich Enns, Rico Garcia, Chayce McDermott, Anthony Nuńez, Cameron Foster, Grant Wolfram, José Espada, and Yaramil Hiraldo are all names that we will probably hear at some point in 2026. None of them have even two years of big league experience, and many of them had just a cup (or sip) of coffee in the majors.

As Elias has pointed out, the Orioles believe in their pitching development program. And barring some unforeseen move of significance, they will have to rely on that coaching to get the most out of the talent they have in-house. At least, that needs to be the plan until July, when the trade market becomes an option to upgrade.

With spring training now underway, we are getting some data (albeit imperfect for many reasons) to show which of these bullpen arms could be ready for a bigger role.

For example, Wolfram struck out a whole side of Yankees in his lone inning of work this spring. New manager Craig Albernaz described the appearance, which featured the southpaw’s 96 mph sinker, as “outstanding.”

Weston has worked two innings and compiled four strikeouts. Espada, Foster, Hiraldo, McDermott, and Tyler Wells worked almost identical two-strikeout, scoreless innings at some point in the opening weekend. As they often say, the pitchers are ahead of the hitters this early in spring.

The only bullpen contender to really struggle so far has been Enns. He recorded only one out against the Pirates on Saturday while coughing up six runs on four hits, two walks, two home runs, and zero strikeouts. Maybe he was working on something? Even so, he probably didn’t want it to go so poorly.

We have not seen Helsely or Kittredge on a game mound yet this spring. But it has only been a few days. According to Roch Kubatko, Helsley took part in live batting practice on Friday, and Kittredge did the same on Sunday. Those two don’t need to “earn” their spot on the team. As long as they are healthy, they will be there. So things are moving slowly with that in mind.

Going back to Elias’ quote on the group, it’s about what you would expect from an executive just weeks before a season gets underway. He’s not going to trash anyone, and you can be sure he does believe in the talent he has accumulated to some degree. But it’s impossible to look at the current ‘pen and feel like it is ready for a postseason run. FanGraphs pegs them as the 15th-best group in MLB. Perhaps that is intentional from Elias’ perspective.

As mentioned before, July will present an opportunity to upgrade the unit. Elias has shown a willingness to be aggressive on that front in prior seasons. If the team is in contention, he’s likely to do it again.

Bautista is another variable. Right now, it feels safest to assume he is going to miss the entire season and then hope for the best. After all, it is in the realm of possibility that he will get back on the field near the tail end of this season. If that happens, it changes the bullpen dramatically. They wouldn’t be able to assume he regains his elite level right away, but even an 80% version of Bautista is still one of the best relievers on the team. You can imagine Elias will be asking for regular updates on the former all-star throughout the summer.

But all of that is a problem for later. Similar to the starting staff, Elias has assembled a bullpen that is relatively safe. There is decent depth there, a cavalcade of arms in Norfolk that are likely to rotate in and out of the Camden Yards bullpen. But they probably won’t be able to win many games for you. You can’t hand them a one-run lead in the fifth inning and expect to keep it. The starters need to provide length, and the offense needs to be overwhelming. It’s all part of a cohesive strategy that the club has to hope clicks in 2026.

Yankees Birthday of the Day: Elston Howard

American baseball player Elston Howard and his New York Yankees teammate, American baseball player Bob Turley, with Elston holding his 'Babe Ruth Award' awarded to the Most Outstanding Player of the 1958 World Series, and Turley holding his 'Cy Young Award' awarded to the 58 World Series' Most Valuable Pitcher, in front of the dugout at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City, New York, 11th April 1959. (Photo by Louis Requena/FPG/Archive Photos/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Not just one of the greatest Yankees of all time — No. 24 by our Top 100 a few years back — Elston is one of the most important in the history of the franchise. A six-time champion, Howard won an MVP in pinstripes and lengthened the lineup of that legendary 1961 club. Most important of all, he was the first Black Yankee, representing the team that plays in the most diverse borough in the most diverse city in the world.

He would have been 97 today.

Elston Gene Howard
Born: February 23, 1929 (St Louis, MO)
Died: December 14, 1980 (New York, NY)
Yankees Tenure: 1955-67

If he didn’t live at the same time as Buck O’Neil, Henry Aaron, or Willie Mays, Howard would have a strong case to be Mr. Baseball, cutting his teeth with the famous Kansas City Monarchs starting as a teenager in 1948 — now fairly acknowledged as his first career season of major-league play. He turned down three different college football scholarships to play for the Monarchs, the most famous brand in Negro Leagues ball. The Monarchs were the New York Yankees of their environment, with players among the most famous men, Black or otherwise, in the south.

It’s easy to see how such an apprenticeship would serve Howard well in the Bronx, signing with the org in 1950 but not seeing major-league playing time until 1955 — eight years after Jackie Robinson’s MLB debut and in the ascendancy of that late-50s dynasty. His route to the majors was delayed by Selected Service during the Korean War, where he was initially ticketed for a combat role but transferred to a morale unit, playing baseball for two years in Japan as an export of soft power.

He had split time in left field and behind the plate in the Negro Leagues, Japan and Yankee minors, it was going to be difficult to catch with Yogi Berra entrenched at the position. Invited to big-league camp in 1954, Howard was taken under the wing of coach Bill Dickey, who had a pretty good run in the majors as a catcher himself. After the Vic Power affair a year before, many in the New York media questioned whether this focus on catching was a delay tactic, that the Yankees didn’t want to actually integrate the team.

After one more season with the minor-league Toronto Maple Leafs, one where he won the International League MVP, Howard hit cleanup through almost the entirety of spring training. The writing was on the wall by this point: the Yankees were going to roster their first Black player. His debut came on April 14th, notching a single to bring in Mickey Mantle to score. While the promise and the talent was always there, 1955 was going to be the third MVP season for Berra — whether the Yankees were actively racist or not, it was always going to be tough to get playing time when Yogi is also on the team.

Howard’s first start in MLB came, of course, in Kansas City, and he went 3-for-5 in that first game behind the plate. As he began to solidify himself as a platoon player, the racism of the time was never far. Headed to spring training ahead of the 1956 season, Elston wanted to stop and stay with Martin Luther King Jr. in Atlanta, a friend of his family. The day before Howard was to arrive, King’s home was firebombed. Some years later, while trying to build in an all-white neighborhood in Trenton, Howard would start every morning of the summer scrubbing the build site clean of racist graffiti.

Elston Howard would win four World Series with the Yankees, and while he didn’t take home World Series MVP in the 1958 showdown with Milwaukee, a brilliant diving double play in left field got his team back into the series, and in Game 7, he’d drive in the eventual Series-winning run. He would consistently produce in the postseason, with four playoff runs posting an OPS over .850. The best way to write yourself into Yankee history is to show up under the brightest lights, and Howard could do all that and more.

He was also an innovator in more ways than one. Ahead of his MVP season in 1963, the right-handed hitting Howard switched to a heavier bat, forcing himself to be a little more late on every pitch. This drove up his fly balls to the opposite field, targeting that 314-foot sign in right field. A career-high 28 home runs followed, a prime example of the geeks ruining the sport by focusing too much on analytics. Towards the end of his time in the big leagues, Howard finalized the doughnut bat weight as well, rolling it out for the young, upstart, pennant-winning Red Sox team as he gradually closed out his career.

Howard could’ve easily been a pioneer in the dugout as well. Immediately after retiring, he rejoined the Yankees and became the American League’s first Black coach in 1969. For the next decade, managers like Ralph Houk, Bill Virdon, and of course Billy Martin came and went, but Howard remained on the big-league staff as a deeply valued mentor — and occasional peacekeeper in the dugout. Few doubted that Howard could have been MLB’s first Black manager, or at the very least the first in Yankees history after Frank Robinson beat him to the punch. Devastatingly, a severe case of myocarditis took Howard from this world at only 51 years old in 1980, and he could only watch over his Yanks from above. His widow, Arlene, would remain a beloved, revered figure at Old-Timers’ Day events for the rest of her life.

There’s that old saying that Ginger Rogers had to do everything Fred Astaire did, but backwards and in high heels. Integration worked that way too, Black players didn’t just have to be excellent on the field, but they were never allowed to make the same mistakes or be the playboys that their White counterparts were. Elston Howard cut through all of that, a stellar example of what can happen when a human being perseveres through a system designed to break him down. Happy birthday, Elston.


See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Finding Colt Keith’s lost power

DETROIT, MI - OCTOBER 07: Detroit Tigers designated hitter Colt Keith (33) bats during the third inning of the ALDS Game 3 between the Seattle Mariners and the Detroit Tigers on October 7, 2025 at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Colt Keith looks like a power hitter, doesn’t he? He’s listed at 6’2, 210 pounds, making him a certifiably large human being. His minor league track record speaks for itself, too. Prospect outlets consistently rated Keith as a 60 or 70 grade raw power guy, and his production bore that out in games as well as in term so max exit velocities.

Across three levels in 2023, Keith posted a .552 slugging percentage. That included a .521 slug and 13 homers in 67 AAA games. Keith’s power potential was one of the major reasons the front office bought out all of his arbitration seasons for just over $28M before he even debuted, with club options for another 3 years and $38M. The idea was that his good hit tool, strong eye at the plate, and big juice would create an ideal middle of the order force.

Things haven’t panned out that way over Keith’s first two years in the majors. To date, Keith has been a decent complementary player, but nothing special. His career slash line (.258/.320/.395) rates out as almost exactly league average. 2025 was a small step in the right direction, but an ice-cold start and a late-season rib injury disguised much of the progress he made over a hot summer. From May 1 to August 31, Keith was a top-60 hitter in the majors. His .277/.336/.463 slash line over that time was much more in line with expectations, but only over half an overly-sectioned season. It’s hard to say for sure if this was legitimate progress or a hot streak.

Because I’m me, I wanted to look into his power outage and see if I could figure out what’s happening. The start of that process was interesting: despite doing a lot of little things well like hitting the ball hard, making contact in the zone, and taking walks, Keith severely underperforms the rest of the league when he hits fly balls. That should be intuitive – if a player doesn’t hit for power, chances are his fly balls are the problem – but this isn’t the style of “different” I expected.

Batting AverageOn Base PercentageSlugging PercentageHR/FB%Pull %
Colt Keith.195.189.59310.718.0
League Average.222.216.65811.726.0

Keith gets on base roughly as frequently as the league average hitter on his fly balls, but slugs far less. Strangely, though, that power outage hasn’t translated to missing home runs, as he converts a roughly average rate of his fly balls into homers. Instead, it seems like the slugging gap comes from a surprisingly low amount of doubles off his fly balls. That’s particularly weird because most young hitters grow from doubles power to home run power as they find their footing; Keith already has the home run part down, but not the doubles.

To me, that suggests that when he gets ahold of one, he really maximizes it for home run power, but doesn’t do so frequently enough. This could be in part a pull rate issue, since we see he pulls way fewer of his fly balls than an average hitter, and it’s been well established that pulled fly balls go further than any other, and thus, produce better results. That makes even more sense when you consider the reasonably short porch in left, with a still fairly expansive and deep middle of the field in Comerica Park. A left-handed hitter needs to pull his fly balls to do maximum damage.

Turns out that we have a new way to easily look into that very hypothesis. Last year, MLB analysts introduced “Squared-Up Percentage”, a stat that measures how frequently a batter squares a ball up. Go figure. More importantly, they defined a “squared-up ball” as a batted ball that results in at least 80% of the maximum exit velocity based on the batter’s swing speed, the pitch’s velocity, and some momentum equations from physics. It’s a little more complicated than that, but the stat basically serves to showcase how well the batter can control his barrel to maximize energy transfer to the ball.

I chose to explore how often two players – Keith, and Francisco Lindor – “square up” baseballs at every launch angle. I compared Keith with Lindor because the two actually have similar swing speeds, exit velocities, and batted ball profiles, except Lindor has run a slugging percentage almost .100 higher than Keith over the last two seasons, despite being listed at 5’10, 190 pounds. As you’ll see below, squared up rate explains a large part of the difference in power production.

The graph below shows that comparison and also provides league average as a reference. The x- and y-axes are straightforward enough, but the bubbles and the red section are the most interesting to explore. Bubble size corresponds to how often a batter hits a ball at that launch angle, where a bigger bubble means that launch angle is more common. Meanwhile, the red zone indicates the optimal launch angles for home runs, so squaring up baseballs in those launch angles is where power comes from.

Here’s what stands out to me from this graph: Keith does a much worse job squaring up his air contact than Lindor, starting around 25 degrees. This matches our expectations pretty handily; Keith hits the ball in the air a lot, and he hits the ball hard a lot, but doesn’t often do both. Instead, he squares up his batted balls hit closer to the ground. Lindor, on the other hand, squares up a ton of baseballs all the way up to 40 degrees, which helps explain how he has 64 home runs over the last two seasons.

Ordinarily, the last thing I would do would be to check Keith’s 2024 data versus 2025 to see if he’s improving or not. Unfortunately, the launch angle distributions of squared up baseballs, and this very simple visualization, are only available for 2025. I’d wager this is an improvement from 2024 since Keith hit the same number of home runs and 7 more doubles in 100 fewer plate appearances, but I couldn’t say for certain.

Keith did improve in several ways from 2024 to 2025. His walk and strikeout rate both increased, which is generally a symptom of a more selective approach and a sign of good things to come, and there was a small uptick in power. Hopefully, as he continues to mature and adjust to MLB pitching heading into his age 24 season, Keith can square up more of the baseballs he would benefit most from, launch them higher to the pull side, and grow into the power hitter we saw in the minor leagues.

How much drag will the ball have this year?

MARCH 13: An official Rawlings Major League Baseball for the 2021 Major League Baseball season showing the red stitching on the 13th March 2021 (Photo by Tim Clayton/Corbis via Getty Images) | Corbis via Getty Images

I remember a time where no one would’ve thought about this. Instead, in this timeline, we now have MLB’s own website providing charts and data: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/drag-dashboard.

Let’s recap, in broad strokes: the lower the drag coefficient, the further the ball travels through the air, essentially. That has an impact on a lot of stuff in a baseball game, but especially the rate of fly balls that become homers:

To be clear, while this is only a few data points, the r-squared between these two data elements is over 50 percent, i.e., over half the variation in league-average HR/FB alone is explained just by the mean drag coefficient for the year. The chart is also incredibly blatant (one goes up, the other goes down), with the main thing ruining being, in part, 2025 — where the ball’s coefficient of restitution changed in addition to its drag coefficient. This muddied the water, because essentially it was a draggier-than-ever ball that was nonetheless “springier” than ever before. How can we tell? Leaguewide exit velocity essentially didn’t budge year-to-year from 2015-2024, decreasing four times year-over-year while increasing five times, until having a big jump from 2024 to 2025. (Also, note: there was a big fall from 2016 to 2017, and then it went back to where it was in 2018. Unclear whether 2026 will go back to 2024-and-before levels.)

There’s no real way to know what MLB is planning… or inadvertently going to engender for 2026. Like many of you, this “question” came to mind watching Ronald Acuña Jr. hit a ball 112+ mph at a 22 degree launch angle and have it bounce in front of the fence in a Spring Training park. The ball traveled short of 400 feet; even last year, with the added drag, the most similarly-hit ball was a no-doubter homer with an extra nine feet of distance, and all balls in the Statcast era with the same EV+LA combo were also homers (though one was a topspin dart with an estimated distance of only about 383 feet). Austin Riley later had a similar pop-up into the outfield that blooped in, seemingly fooling the center fielder in the process in terms of how much it didn’t carry.

Now, it was soggy yesterday, and the wind was blowing to right field, so one set of a couple of weird ball-in-play things does not a portent of even more drag make. Still, it’s something to wonder about. I wish we didn’t have to, though.

Best of the Rest: Which unranked Guardians pitching prospects should we keep an eye on in 2026?

Feb 19, 2026; Goodyear, AZ, USA; Cleveland Guardians pitcher Franco Aleman (92) during media day in Goodyear. Mandatory Credit: Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images | Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images

With seven teams in its minor league system, Cleveland has 165 players under contract heading into the 2026 season, so it’s a bit unfair to stop counting prospects at just the top 20.

Every year I pick some other non-top 20 prospects to keep an eye on and the track record has been pretty solid thus far. Back in 2021, I successfully picked 10 different pitchers who eventually went on to make MLB. Last year, four pitchers on my Best of the Rest article (Josh Hartle, Braylon Doughty, Joey Oakie and Daniel Espino) graduated to top 20 prospect status and one (Nic Enright) made it to MLB.

Here are some prospects who just missed the cut from Covering the Corner’s top 20 and deserve some recognition as well. Prospects are listed by their proximity to MLB.

Starting pitchers

Doug Nikhazy, 26, LHP
A second round pick in 2021, Nikhazy finally made his MLB debut last year, but it didn’t well as he was shellacked by the Red Sox. He was better in a second appearance out of the bullpen late in the season. Nikhazy had 21 appearances (19 starts) at Triple-A last year and struggled to the tune of a 5.02 ERA while being extremely home run prone, but he’s only one year removed from a 2.98 ERA for the whole 2024 season, so I’m not ready to throw in the towel for him just yet, considering he’s still on the 40-man roster.

Austin Peterson, 26, RHP
A ninth round pick in 2022, Peterson rocketed up the rankings in 2024 after dominating High-A and Double-A using elite control and posting the best WHIP (0.89) of all qualified pitchers in minor league baseball. He seemed to be on the same track to begin 2025 while repeating at Double-A, crushing it with a 1.47 ERA over 11 starts, which earned him a promotion to Triple-A. Once at Columbus, however, Peterson struggled, nearly doubling his walk rate and tripling his ERA. He still was added to Cleveland’s 40-man roster, however and he’ll have a chance to make his MLB debut this year if he can better adjust to MLB-level hitters at the upper level of the minors.

Will Dion, 25, LHP
A ninth round pick in 2021, I’m not quite ready to give up on Dion after he showed considerable improvement repeating last year at Triple-A. “Baby Kershaw” dropped his ERA from 5.48 to 4.09 in 31 games (13 starts) and his FIP actually was better than that at 3.86 due to the fact he cut his HR/9 in half to 0.82. He doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he has good off speed pitches and could be a depth option for Cleveland this year if he continues to improve.

Dylan DeLucia, 25, RHP
A sixth round pick in 2022, DeLucia posted career-best strikeout numbers repeating at High-A last season (10.49/9), but for whatever reason, when 0pposing hitters made contact, the ball flew out of the ballpark at an alarming rate (21.2% HR/FB ratio). DeLucia was promoted to Double-A at the midway point of the season and his ERA dropped to 3.19, mainly because he suddenly became one of the toughest pitchers in MiLB to hit home runs against (3.5% HR/FB). I still like what I see out of DeLucia and think he could be a future starting depth option.

Trenton Denholm, 22, RHP
A 14th round pick by Cleveland in 2021, Denholm has one of the more unorthodox pitch mixes in Cleveland’s system, having added a knuckleball to his repertoire this past season. He made 26 appearances (18 starts) at Double-A last year with a 3.77 ERA while posting an elite 1.85 BB/9 walk rate. He finished the season in Triple-A and likely will begin there this year.

Rodney Boone, 25, LHP
An eighth round pick in 2021, Boone ascent in Cleveland’s system has been slow as molasses. He spent the entire 2025 season at Double-A, but his numbers were rock solid. In 18 starts spanning 78 innings, he posted a strong 2.31 ERA with a 3.24 FIP and 1.05 WHIP. The left-hander kept opposing hitters near the Mendoza line (.207 BAA) and at least deserves an opportunity at Triple-A to begin the 2026 campaign.

Matt Wilkinson, 23, LHP
A 10th round pick in 2023, “Tugboat” Wilkinson sports the best nickname in MiLB and burst onto the scene with elite strikeout numbers in his debut season, which sent his prospect status soaring. He fell back down to earth in 2025 while repeating at High-A as his strikeout numbers dipped, his walk rate increased and he became more hittable as well. He stayed healthy the entire season, however, posting a 4.24 ERA over 25 starts and his strikeout rate still was good (10.13 K/9), so he’s not worth giving up on yet.

Michael Kennedy, 21, LHP
Acquired from Pittsburgh in the Spencer Horwitz trade, Kennedy was drafted in the fourth round out of Troy High School in 2022. He spent the 2025 season at High-A Lake County, where he held his own in 16 appearances (nine starts), posting a 3.32 ERA with a 3.79 FIP. His walk rate spiked to 3.61 and it’s something to keep an eye on moving forward, but he’s still an intriguing pitching prospect.

Caden Favors, 24, LHP
A sixth round pick in 2024, Favors spent his entire 2025 season at High-A Lake County, where he pitched admirably with a 4.08 ERA and a better 3.75 FIP over 25 starts spanning 108 innings. He’s starting to get some recognition on the scouting websites after adding some velocity, which now tops out at about 97 mph. He pitched better as the 2025 season went on, adjusting well to some changes Cleveland made in his delivery. He definitely is a player worth paying attention to this year as I expect he could be a super sleeper.

Franklin Gomez, 20, LHP
An absolute steal by Cleveland, Gomez was acquired for international bonus cash from the New York Mets this offseason. He was signed internationally out of Venezuela and had been in the Mets’ system since 2022. Gomez repeated the 2025 season at Single-A and absolutely dominated opposing hitters with a 1.85 ERA. He’s been extremely difficult to barrel, allowing just 0.18 HR/9. He was promoted to High-A for his final six starts of 2025 and his strikeout numbers actually increased while keeping his FIP the same. I like what I see out of this young man.

Rafe Schlesinger, 23, LHP
A fourth round pick in 2024, Schlesinger pitched well for Single-A Lynchburg last year, sporting a 3.33 ERA and 3.18 FIP over 20 games (16 starts) in 83.2 innings. This earned him a promotion to High-A Lake County, where his strikeout numbers actually increased to 10.8 K/9 and his FIP dropped to 3.01. Schlesinger can touch 97 with his fastball and he could be another college arm that takes the next step in Cleveland’s pitching factory this year.

Jogly Garcia, 22, RHP
Signed internationally out of Venezuela in 2022, Garcia was flat out disgusting to begin the season at Single-A Lynchburg. In eight games (six starts), he had a 2.05 ERA with an absolutely freaking filthy 15.85 K/9 and 1.42 FIP before missing a couple months with an unspecified injury. He finished the year at High-A Lake County. With his strikeout stuff, Garcia is a strong candidate for the bullpen should he not pan out as a starter.

Jacob Zibin, 21, RHP
Signed out of high school with the biggest 10th round bonus in MLB Draft history in 2022, Jacob Zibin didn’t pitch his first two years in Cleveland’s system due to Tommy John surgery and other injuries. He finally debuted this past season and went straight to full-season ball, making 19 starts at Single-A Lynchburg. Zibin didn’t miss many bats, but he posted a solid 3.62 ERA and most importantly, stayed healthy the whole season. I’d love to see him continue his development in Cleveland’s system.

Will McCausland, 22, RHP
Cleveland’s seventh round pick in 2025, McCausland impressed in a brief debut at Single-A, pitching four games (one start) with 10 total innings. He allowed three runs and struck out 14 batters and will almost certainly get a much bigger opportunity now that he’s had a full offseason working with Cleveland’s pitching development.

Chase Mobley, 19, RHP
Mobley actually replaced Zibin with the new top 10th round bonus ever at $1.8 million in 2024 when he was drafted out of high school. He can hit 99 mph, but control is a major issue, walking over 10 batters per nine innings in 10 games (nine starts) last year, but he also struck out an elite 13 batters per nine. He has a ways to go in his development.

Alexander Garcia, 19, RHP
Signed out of Venezuela in 2024, Garcia was flat out filthy last year repeating at the Dominican Summer League, where he had a disgusting 1.32 ERA in 11 starts spanning 47.2 innings. Despite his low level, he was stretched out to 6.0 and 7.0 innings to close out the season, finishing the year with 7.0 shutout frames on August 16th. He’ll be making his U.S. debut this year for sure.

Players yet to debut in Cleveland’s system with top draft pedigrees: Justin Campbell, Will Hynes, Cameron Sullivan, Aidan Major.

Campbell missed his first three seasons in Cleveland’s system due to a combination of Tommy John and nerve surgery, but he was a second round pick when Cleveland drafted him and he looks like he’s finally ready to make his pro debut this year. Hynes was Cleveland’s top pitching prospect drafted in 2025, selected out of high school in the second round competitive balance pick. Sullivan was the lone prep arm from Cleveland’s 2024 class to never debut, missing his 2025 season with a partial UCL tear. I haven’t heard any updates about whether it healed or required surgery. Major was a highly promising college arm in Cleveland’s 2024 draft, selected in the fifth round, but also missed the 2025 season while recovering from 2024 Tommy John surgery.

Relievers

Franco Aleman, 25, RHP
Aleman was expected to be a contributor in Cleveland’s bullpen in 2025 after exploding onto the scene with an incredible 2024 season, but injuries, wildness and ineffectiveness prevented his MLB debut. That being said, Aleman still throws 99 mph with an elite fastball and slider combination. He’s already on the 40-man roster and he’ll almost certainly get an opportunity this season.

Peyton Pallette, 24, RHP
Cleveland selected Pallette in the 2025 Rule 5 Draft, so he either needs to stay on the MLB roster all year or he’ll have to be offered back to the Chicago White Sox. Pallette was a starter, but he’ll be used as a reliever this year. His fastball touches the upper 90s and he has a good pitch mix of slider, curve and changeup to go with it. He also puts a tremendous amount of spin on the ball. If Cleveland saw something that everyone else missed, he could be an asset this year and in the future.

Jack Leftwich, 24, RHP
Cleveland selected Hanner out of Minnesota’s farm system in the minor league portion of the 2022 Rule 5 Draft. He spent the entire 2023 campaign at Double-A Akron, where he had a solid 2.78 ERA over 41 appearances. Hanner repeated 2024 at Akro

Steven Perez, 24, RHP
Signed out of Venezuela in 2018, Perez had been a reliable relief option before becoming a dominant one in 2025. He opened the season at High-A, where he was flat out unfair with a 0.90 ERA and a miniscule 1.8 BB/9 over 12 games and 20 innings. This earned him a promotion to Double-A, where Perez held his own again to the tune of a 2.20 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over 49 more innings pitched. Perez has added velocity and has a pretty good fastball slider combo that should be able to play at the MLB level.

Xavier Martinez, 23, RHP
Signed as an undrafted free agent out of USC in 2024, Martinez impressed in his pro debut last season, beginning the year at Single-A Lynchburg, where he had a 2.63 ERA and struck out 49 batters in 37.2 innings spanning 23 appearances. He earned a promotion to High-A Lake County and continued to perform well, whiffing 16 batters in 14 innings, even earning a couple saves along the way.

Cam Schuelke, 24, RHP
A 19th-round pick in 2024, Schuelke has an extremely unorthodox submarine style out of the bullpen. He can be highly entertaining, already impressing Tom Hamilton in Cleveland’s first Spring Training game this year when he whiffed top Reds prospect Cam Collier on a 69 mph sidearm pitch. Schuelke whiffed 33 batters in 27.2 innings in 2025 and continues to be a player worth paying attention to.

Kendeglys Virguez, 21, RHP
A Venezuelan pitching prospect, Virguez never did more than make rehab appearances in the complex league last year, but he throws 101 mph and as long as he’s still doing that, I’m going to keep an eye on him.

Luis Flores, 22, LHP
A Dominican pitching prospect, Flores continues to sport elite strikeout numbers at every level he pitches — but that’s countered by brutal walk numbers. He’s a player worth dreaming on, but he’ll have to get his walks under control if he’s ever going to make it.

Raudy Rivera, 20, RHP
How can I not love a reliever named Raudy? Rivera repeated last year at the Arizona Complex League and made drastic improvements, dropping his ERA over 5 runs to 3.21 with 48 strikeouts in just 28 innings pitched. This earned him a promotion to Single-A Lynchburg, where he pitched even better, posting a 1.80 ERA in seven appearances spanning 15 innings with 17 strikeouts. Keep an eye on this one.

Arizona Diamondbacks News, 2/23: Passing of the Torch

TOPSHOT - Italy's 1994 Winter Olympics 4×10km cross-country ski relay gold-medal winning team carry the Olympic flame within Murano glass during the closing ceremony of the Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympic Games at the Verona Arena in Verona, northern Italy, on February 22, 2026. (Photo by Stefano RELLANDINI / AFP via Getty Images) | AFP via Getty Images

Team news

[Dbacks.com] D-backs confident in rotation depth as they await results of Kelly’s MRI – “One of the huge benefits of doing this, not only having a talent the caliber of Zac, but also it builds out another really good starting pitcher in our rotation,” general manager Mike Hazen said. “I don’t know how many starting pitchers we used last year. I’m assuming we’re gonna use the same amount of starting pitchers this year.” Last year, the Diamondbacks also appeared to have a surplus of starters with Corbin Burnes, Gallen, Kelly, Pfaadt, Rodriguez, Nelson and Jordan Montgomery, but by the end of camp Montgomery was out due to Tommy John surgery, and a month into the season Burnes went down with the same injury.

[AZ Central] Ryan Thompson OK after being hit by batted ball – Thompson was throwing a live batting practice session to Diamondbacks prospect Kristian Robinson when Robinson hit a sharp comebacker to the mound. The ball struck Thompson in the right shoulder/upper back area, and Thompson immediately fell in pain. The small crowd watching gasped and groaned as Thompson went down. But the veteran reliever was able to stand up and walk around near the pitcher’s mound. Moments later resumed his session, to cheers and applause from the small crowd gathered to watch. Thompson said he was OK and gave a thumbs up after completing his session.

[SI] D-backs’ Outfield Sparks Impressive Rally Despite Loss to Angels – Thomas and Waldschmidt, in particular, are facing an important spring. Waldschmidt, Arizona’s No. 1 prospect, is looking to prove his worth, with a non-zero chance to crack the major league roster before playing an inning in Triple-A.Thomas, meanwhile, is making some adjustments to his mechanics in the hopes of cutting down on his swing-and-miss. Both players made successful cases on Sunday. Thomas began the comeback by lacing a 109 MPH double, plating two runs. Waldschmidt followed up with a 99 MPH double of his own. It was then Barrosa, who is not known for his power, who flipped the score in favor of Arizona with a two-run homer to right field.

[Arizona Sports] Torey Lovullo: Ryan Waldschmidt is a ‘very talented player,’ will determine his own future – The Diamondbacks top outfield prospect worked his way up to Double-A Amarillo in his first two seasons. Lovullo said his focus and maturity are what will drive his career.“ He was part of the reason why I was late, actually,” Lovullo said as he joined Bickley & Marotta. “(Waldschmidt) was the one I was meeting with at 7:30 a.m. this morning and he was getting very conversational. Once again, coming into my office as a young guy, looking me square in my eyes. I’m not gonna stop that. I want to continue to get to know him and see what makes him tick and he was very comfortable.”

And, elsewhere…

[MLB.com] This might be the most Spring Training triple play we’ve ever seen – Emergency sirens at Scottsdale Stadium blared in the top of the first inning on Sunday after a person started smoking in a bathroom, triggering an announcement that instructed fans to evacuate the building. The fire alarm was eventually turned off after several minutes, but the inning only got wilder from there.A distracted Ray allowed the first three batters he faced to reach base, but he ended up catching a huge break after the Giants turned a wacky triple play on a base hit to get him out of the inning unscathed.

[ [OC Register] Angels owner Arte Moreno: TV ordeal ‘hasn’t been easy’ – “We’ll be on TV,” he said. “But put it this way, it hasn’t been easy.” A year after Moreno said he expected the Angels to lose $50 million in 2025, their payroll for 2026 is at least $50 million less than it was a season ago. As cord-cutters have hurt the business model for television networks, they have been unable to pay sports teams the rights fees they negotiated years ago. “We took a (revenue) cut going from Fox to Main Street, and they’re going to go down again,” Moreno said. “A lot of teams have gone to MLB and I haven’t done it yet. I’m not telling you I won’t do it. We’re still working on it.”

USA wins men’s hockey gold for first time since Miracle on Ice – If I didn’t mention this, Justin would, I’m sure, be storming up the I-10 to remind me! But it was quite the game, regulation time ending locked at 1-1. That was largely thanks to American keeper Connor Hellebuyck, who stopped 41 Canadian shots. Then, less than three minutes into overtime, Jack Hughes scored the walkoff winner, to give the USA their first gold there in 46 years. It capped off a record-breaking performance by the team, and I’ve enjoyed watching the events. Except for curling, which now sucks again. 😉 Roll on 2030, and the next Winter Games, in the French Alps!

Bambi: The Reckoning (2025)

Rating: C+

Dir: Dan Allen

Star: Roxanne McKee, Tom Mulheron, Nicola Wright, Samira Mighty

On the plus side, this does at least go in a somewhat different direction from the usual public domain horror adaptation. It’s not just a case of, “X, but X is a serial killer,” where X equals Mickey Mouse, Popeye, or whatever. However, what’s left is barely recognizable as a version of Felix Salten’s Bambi. It takes the name: everything else is closer to eco-horror from the seventies, like Prophecy, with pollution turning wildlife against the humans responsible. Though as Chris noted, this is likely nearest to a low-rent copy of Death of a Unicorn. On that basis, and watched as a B-movie, it’s decent enough. Likely better than I expected, truth be told.

Read more

What Guardians Player Would You Most Want to see Sign an Extension this Spring?

Jun 21, 2025; West Sacramento, California, USA; Cleveland Guardians right fielder Johnathan Rodriguez (30) signs a baseball for a fan before the start of the game against the Athletics at Sutter Health Park. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Lee-Imagn Images | Dennis Lee-Imagn Images

The Guardians’ generally approach players about extensions in the Spring. So, whom do you hope is sitting down to talk turkey in the days ahead?

Is it Steven Kwan? Or is his durability to much of a concern?

Is it Cade Smith? Or are relievers too volatile?

Is it Kyle Manzardo? Or would you be wary of the DH-only profile risk?

Is it Gavin Williams, Scott Boras be darned?

Is it Joey Cantillo, you’ve seen enough?

Is it Chase DeLauter, get him while he’d still be cheap?

Is it Travis Bazzana, sign us up before he breaks out?

Bo Naylor, Brayan Rocchio, CJ Kayfus… maybe there is an underrated name here you want to argue for… let us know in the comments below!

Cam Booser and the baseball story you need to know

ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - MAY 22: Boston Red Sox pitcher Cam Booser #71 pitches against the Tampa Bay Rays in the first inning at Tropicana Field on May 22, 2024 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Miguel J. Rodriguez Carrillo/VIEWpress) | Corbis via Getty Images

The Tampa Bay Rays made several franchise altering moves this offseason as they traded away Shane Baz and Brandon Lowe in separate trades made just hours apart. The deals also included Jake Mangum and southpaw Mason Montgomery.

The inclusion of Montgomery was significant because the Rays have a lack of left-handed pitchers on the roster. 

During the 2025 season, the Rays had a lack of left handed pitching as only four different southpaws took the rubber for them over the course of the season: Ian Seymour, Garrett Cleavinger, Mason Montgomery, and Joe Rock.

Of those four, Seymour is likely ticketed for the starting rotation in Durham, Cleavinger should return in the Rays bullpen (although he has also been the subject of trade rumors), and Montgomery was traded. Rock didn’t receive much of a look from the Rays last season, which could indicate he eventually converts to relief, but enters camp as a starter alongside Seymour.

Over the course of the offseason, the Rays addressed the lack of left-handed pitchers on the roster as they would add Steven Matz on a Major League deal and then a duo of hurlers on minor league deals, John Rooney and Cam Booser.

Matz is expected to be an integral part of the starting rotation. Rooney ended last season on the Injured List as he underwent surgery to remove bone spurs and to treat tennis elbow, Marc Topkin reported on January 30th that Rooney might not be ready to start the season

Then you have 33-year old Cam Booser, one of the oldest players in camp, and potentially the second southpaw on the bullpen depth chart.

How Booser Bubbled Up

You’d be forgiven for thinking Booser was a professional wrestler given his injury history, as he suffered a broken femur in high school requiring surgery, and later broke a vertebra during a session in the weight room. Later, he’d endure Tommy John surgery and then an elbow scope. Booser’s collegiate career came and went and he’d go undrafted. However, the Minnesota Twins saw enough to sign him as a non-drafted free agent in August 2013 .

Over his first few seasons in the Twins organization, Booser didn’t do much to stand out and then underwent surgery in 2015 after a horrific accident.

That offseason, while rehabbing from his surgery, Booser was riding a bike when a motorist ran a stop sign and plowed into the helpless Booser. The vehicle suffered a broken windshield and Booser suffered a broken sacrum. Booser eventually returned to the mound and again didn’t do much to warrant any positive attention from the Twins. Booser would be suspended for 50 games in 2017 due to testing positive for marijuana (minor league baseball stopped testing for marijuana in 2019).

Fed up, Booser stepped away from the game of baseball, and went home to Washington to pursue a career in carpentry. At least for a few years.

Then, after three years of retirement, Booser decided to become a coach at a training facility. One day on a whim, he decided to throw in front of a Rapsodo machine and clocked in at 98mph.

This led to Booser getting connected with Driveline in the hopes of resurrecting his career. Once Booser received the Driveline treatment, he was given an opportunity in the Indy Leagues

Kyle Rogers of Driveline filmed one of Booser’s outings, in which the resurgent lefty touched 99mph. This caught the attention of Carl Gonzalez, a one-time writer for Draysbay and current member of the Arizona Diamondbacks front office. Gonzalez alerted a scout for the Diamondbacks, Chris Carminucci, who informed his contacts of Booser’s potential, and the team would keep tabs on Booser.

Booser signed with the Chicago Dogs and became an instant sensation; however, although he had retired, the Minnesota Twins still controlled his rights. It took nearly a full offseason before the Twins finally granted Booser his release and the Arizona Diamondbacks quickly signed him to a minor league deal. Just like that, Booser was back on the track to the big leagues.

Of course, nothing in this story can be easy.

Booser returned to affiliated action in 2022 and spent the season in Double-A, until the Diamondbacks abruptly released him in July. He’d make 19 appearances and registered a 6.48 ERA | 6.60 FIP with a 25.6 K% & 18.8 BB% over 25 IP, so command was an obvious issue. However, instead of going back to carpentry, Booser ventured back to the Indy Leagues. This go around, he wasn’t quite as dominant but showed enough under the hood to garner the interest of the Boston Red Sox, signing a minor league deal in February, 2023.

The Triple-A Worcester Red Sox enjoyed the services of Booser throughout the 2023 season and the now 31 year old set a career high in innings pitched and appearances while greatly improving his command from the year prior while racking up a 26.7 K%. The Red Sox decided to bring Booser back the following year, but this time, he was given an invite to spring training.

He wouldn’t make the Opening Day roster, but just a few weeks into the season, the Red Sox made the decision to bring the 31-year old to Pittsburgh to make his first big league appearance.

A Spirited Debut

Booser had made it to the big leagues.

He took the mound on April 19th in Pittsburgh as the Red Sox took on the Pirates. Boston Manager Alex Cora gave Booser an opportunity to close out the game for Boston as they led Pittsburgh, 8-0, in the bottom of the 9th inning.

The first batter Booser faced was a former Rays first round pick, SS Alika Williams.

The very first pitch from Booser was a strike, a 96 mph fastball. Unfortunately it caught too much of the plate and Williams turned on it and sent it into the left field corner and raced to third for a triple. But Booser settled down after that and fanned Andrew McCutchen for his first career strikeout.

That was followed up by two weak grounders and Booser successfully sealed the Red Sox victory, albeit by allowing a run in an inning of work, a clearly cathartic moment for the journeyman.

Booser would spend the rest of the year on the shuttle between Boston and Worcester. Over 43 appearances, Booser compiled a 3.38 ERA | 3.80 FIP with a 23.5 K% & 8.7 BB% across 42 2/3 innings pitched; Booser also picked up a save.

Cam he make the Rays roster?

During the following offseason the Red Sox traded Booser to the Chicago White Sox, where he spent the 2025 season, and here was Baseball America’s blurb on Booser at the time:

Booser emerged as an unexpectedly reliable option in the middle innings for Red Sox manager Alex Cora in 2024. He attacks hitters with a mid-90s fastball, upper-80s cutter and a low-80s sweeper. Both his secondaries elicited whiffs roughly 31-32% of the time

Alas, Booser did not enjoy the same success South Side as he had in Boston.

Over 39 games, Booser compiled a 5.52 ERA | 6.26 FIP with a 24.5 K% & 13.3 BB% over 31 innings pitched. In November, the White Sox non-tendered Booser making him a free agent once again and thus the Tampa Bay Rays decided to sign the 33-year old to a minor league deal.

Given the Rays lack of left-handed pitchers in camp, there is a legitimate chance for Booser to make the Rays Opening Day roster depending on how Garrett Cleavinger and Joe Rock make it through the spring, and even if he does not, he’s a likely candidate to grace the mound for the Rays in 2026.

The Cubs are signing Michael Conforto

It wouldn’t seem as if the Cubs need any more outfielders at this point in Spring Training, but now they reportedly have one:

This is all the information we have about the Cubs signing Michael Conforto at this time. We don’t know if this is a minor-league deal or a major-league deal. If the latter, the Cubs do have two players (Shelby Miller and Justin Steele) who could go to the 60-day injured list to make room. I’ll update this post when we know more.

Conforto turns 33 next Sunday. With the Dodgers last year he batted .199/.305/.333 with 12 home runs in 418 at-bats over 138 games. The Dodgers left him off their postseason rosters.

From 2017-19 Conforto was a pretty good player with the Mets. Over that span he batted .257/.363/.492 with 88 home runs. But since he missed the entire 2022 season with a shoulder injury, his production has declined.

With several Cubs about to head out for the World Baseball Classic, Conforto might simply be in camp to fill in for them. Seems doubtful he’d actually make the Opening Day roster. But, as always, we await developments. (He’ll have to change that number if he does make the team.)

UPDATE: This is a minor-league deal.

Orioles question of the moment: Which player is poised for a breakout?

BALTIMORE, MD - SEPTEMBER 25: Dylan Beavers #12 of the Baltimore Orioles hits a walk off home run during a baseball game against the Tampa Bay Rays at the Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 25, 2025 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The last few years have been filled with stories about Baltimore’s young talent. The Orioles developed three youngsters into the top prospect in baseball. Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday have all made their major league debut. Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser, Samuel Basallo, and Coby Mayo have too.

Henderson immediately set the bar rather high, so it’s difficult to consider him a breakout candidate in 2026. Rutschman profiles more as a bounceback candidate at this point, and Westburg already has an All Star appearance on his resume.

Holliday fits the mold at only 22-years-old, but the infielder will begin the season on the IL with a broken hamate bone. Holliday underwent successful surgery, but the injury could lead to a reduction in power for an extended period.

Early blows to Westburg and Holliday brought Coby Mayo back into the mix. Once considered a likely trade candidate, Mayo could easily win the “breakout” award if he hits and finds a way to play a serviceable third base. Mayo hit 11 home runs in 263 at bats last season and slashed .301/.393/.548 in September.

Cowser will begin the year as the everyday center fielder. The “Milk Man” was named the 2024 American League Outstanding Rookie in the Player Choice Awards in 2024, but he struggled to stay healthy last season. Cowser holds legitimate power and a strong throwing arm, but he still has plenty of room to grow at the plate and in the field.

Basallo is the $67-million man with only 109 at bats under his belt. Both Basallo and Dylan Beavers figure to be strong contenders for the AL’s Rookie of the Year. Beavers skyrocketed up prospect lists after posting a .375 OBP over 35 games last season.

Blaze Alexander appears to be the favorite for everyday at bats with Westburg and Holliday sidelined. Alexander and Jeremiah Jackson will look to establish themselves as legitimate big leaguers early in the season.

Baltimore’s bullpen is filled with guys that could earn the nod. There’s some hype building around Anthony Nunez, and there’s a few lurking names in Norfolk’s starting rotation. The current rotation features mostly established arms, although the front office continues to boast about Shane Baz’s ceiling.

Can I interest you in anyone else? Heston Kjerstad? Cade Povich? There are plenty of talented players on this roster capable of taking another step forward. Who do you think will breakout above the rest?

Better Know Your Blue Jays 40-man: Cody Ponce

Feb 16, 2026; Dunedin, FL, USA; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Cody Ponce (66) works out during spring training practice at Player Development Complex. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Cody Ponce is a 6’6”, 31-year-old (32 on April 25th), right-handed pitcher. I wonder if we could get him to recreate the Jon Rauch explosion at umpire Alfonso Marquez where John Farrell tried to hold him back from punching the umpire.

The Jays signed Ponce on December 2nd of last year to a three-year, $30 million contract. He spent last season in the Korean Baseball League, where he went 17-1 with a 1.89 ERA in 29 starts. In 180.2 innings, he allowed 128 hits, with 41 walks and 252 strikeouts.

The four years before that, he pitched in Japan, where he wasn’t as successful: 4.54 ERA in 202 innings.

Before that, he had pitched for the Pirates, in 2020 and 2021, just 55.1 innings in all, with a 5.86 ERA. And before that, he was a second-round draft pick by the Brewers, but he didn’t make it majors with them.

In his time overseas, he added a bit to his fastball (sits around 95 mph, tops out at 98), and added a splitter and a ‘kick changeup’. What is a kick changeup? Well, Lookout Landing said this:

The kick change is essentially a circle change grip, thrown like a fastball or slider, with a twist. The pitcher spikes their middle finger up to press on the seam, which allows that finger to “kick” the ball forward on release, tilting the axis of the ball forward at release and allowing it to catch more significant air resistance in flight. With this “kick”, despite the ball coming out of the hand with slider-like rotation, it will tail to the pitcher’s arm side and sink due to its lower spin rate and its particular spin axis. The examples I’ve seen tend to maintain solid velocity, akin to hard slider.

Here is some video of him:

What will he do with the Jays? Steam has him making 47 appearances with 24 starts (I don’t know how he’s getting the 23 relief appearances in with 24 starts, but ok), 162 innings, a 3.90 ERA and a 2.5 fWAR.

I’d guess that the Jays intend him to be a full time starter, but it is possible that the Jays will treat him like the did Eric Lauer last year, move him to the pen, late him the season, when someone like Max Scherzer is ready to join the rotation.

Breakout Hitters For 2026 Fantasy Baseball: Can Jac Caglianone, Cam Smith make a leap?

Two years ago, I started this columnto prevent myself from having “The One Who Got Away” when we give up on a player we like too early. The impetus for it was Josh Lowe, who was one of my favorite young breakout hitters in 2022, but he struggled to start the year and was demoted a few times, so I was tentative about drafting him in 2023. Of course, that year he hit .292 with 20 home runs and 32 steals, and I was crying into my pint of ice cream at the end of the night.

I figured if we looked at highly regarded prospects who failed to live up to expectations in their MLB debuts but had solid underlying metrics, we might be able to identify which players not to give up on. The article that first year brought me to Lawrence Butler, Zach Neto, Brenton Doyle, and Jordan Westburg. Unfortunately, my ultimate choice out of that group for the “next Josh Lowe” was Parker Meadows. Still, the exercise proved useful, so I wrote the column again last year,and it led me to Ben Rice, Addison Barger, Kyle Manzardo, and Jackson Holliday. Of course, because I was unsure of Ben Rice's playing time, I chose Evan Carter as my top choice. So I think we've learned that the article is worthwhile, but my final choices need some work. Maybe this is the year that I nail it.

So what are the criteria that I use?

Breakout Second-Year Hitter Criteria

  1. A hitter had to have made their MLB debut in the previous season
  2. Can not currently have an ADP better than 200, using NFBC data
  3. Had to have at least 100 MLB plate appearances (That means no Griffin Conine, who had only 86 MLB plate appearances, or Sal Stewart, who had 58).
  4. Had to have an offensive WAR under 1.0. (That means no Dylan Beavers, Jakob Marsee, or Daylen Lile, who had offensive WARs over 1.0)
  5. I also looked for players who were legitimate prospects, either making top 100 lists or featured inside their own team’s top 10 prospects.
  6. The hitter had to have been at or near league average in barrel rate, swinging strike rate, chase rate, and contact rate.

That final step is personal sorting. I want to look beyond the surface-level stats (since the point is that they would have been bad on the surface), and look at underlying metrics that I believe point to a strong approach and plate skills. For me, that's barrel rate, max exit velocity, swinging strike rate (SwStr%), chase rates, and overall contact rate. Even in Lowe’s bad 2023 call-up, he had an O-Swing% under 30%, a slightly above league average SwStr%, a 5.2% barrel rate, and good minor league batted ball data, so there were hints of a viable fantasy profile (especially since we knew his scouting report).

When all that was done, I had 13 players I wanted to list in the article. However, three of them figure to start the year in the minors, and two of them are being drafted too high to outperform their ADP. That left eight hitters who could be the next potential breakout. We’ll go through the case for each of these hitters, and then I’ll anoint the next breakout hitter at the end of the article.

⚾️ Coming soon: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.

Potential Young Hitter Breakouts for 2026 Fantasy Baseball

NameTeam
Jac CaglianoneKCR
Agustín RamírezMIA
Coby MayoBAL
Cam SmithHOU
Marcelo MayerBOS
Samuel BasalloBAL
Robert Hassell IIIWSN
Alejandro OsunaTEX
Thomas SaggeseSTL
Cole YoungSEA
Matt ShawCHC
Kristian CampbellBOS
Carlos NarvaezBOS
Edgar QueroCWS

Both AgustínRamirez (ADP of 77) and Samuel Basallo (ADP of 178) are being drafted inside the top 200 in February drafts, so they don't qualify to be my breakout pick here. Also, all of Alejandro Osuna, Kristian Campbell, and Robert Hassell III are unlikely to break camp with their respective teams, but I believe they're all names to keep an eye on in case they get a chance at regular playing time, much like Addison Barger last year. I should also note that Jordan Lawlar had just 74 plate appearances, so he didn't qualify for this article, butI covered him in my post-hype hitters article and am a fan for this season.

I will admit that Marcelo Mayer was well below average in swinging strike rate and Jac Caglianone missed the mark in chase rate and overall contact rate, but they are two of the two highest-profile prospects on this list, so I felt it was warranted to keep them in the article to discuss them in more detail. There were some other players, like Thomas Saggese and Edgar Quero, who just missed the cut in one criterion or another, but I still felt they warranted a deeper dive before we fully wrote them off.

Jac Caglianone - OF, Kansas City Royals (ADP:

Caglianone is the biggest name on this list, so it makes sense to start with him. The 6th overall pick from the 2024 MLB Draft, Caglianone was a borderline top 20 prospect heading into the 2025 MLB season. He then hit .337/.408/.617 with 20 home runs and 72 RBI in 66 games split between Double-A and Triple-A, earning him a big league promotion. The big leagues were not as kind. He hit .157/.237/.295 with seven home runs in 62 games. So what's the argument for believing in him in 2026?

For starters, his quality of contact is impressive. Even with his struggles last season, Caglianone posted a 12% barrel rate and 114.1 mph max exit velocity. He also had a 53.2% hard-hit rate and 93.9 mph average exit velocity in Triple-A. Of all hitters who took at least 100 swings at the MLB level last year, Caglianone has the 8th-fastest bat speed at 77.4 mph, slightly better than Kyle Schwarber and Nick Kurtz. He can square the ball up with the best of them.

He also makes a decent amount of contact. While his 75% overall contact rate was essentially league average last year, he has always posted an almost 90% zone contact rate and has never run a strikeout rate above 21% at any level in the minors. There's a chance that MLB pitchers will drive that number up a little higher because Caglianone has a tendency to chase out of the zone a bit more than you'd like to see. If you look at Pitcher List's Process+ stat, which documents a hitter's overall power, contact, and swing decisions, Caglianone was well above average in his contact and power last year, but his swing decisions left a lot to be desired.

Jac Caglianone Process+

Pitcher List

The swing decisions being poor are obviously not great, but Caglianone swung outside of the zone far less in the minors, so perhaps it was just a result of adjusting to big league pitching. His minor league data would suggest that he reins that in a bit this season, even though it will always be a part of his game to some extent.

The other concern is that Caglianone doesn't put the ball in the air a lot. He had just a 34% fly ball rate in his big league at-bats last year, but he also posted a 31.3% fly ball rate in Triple-A. Part of that, which we can see now with Statcast data, is that he has a really flat swing. That makes it hard for him to elevate pitches that are not up in the strike zone. As a result, he will always run high line drive rates, and that will help with his batting average, but his power production may lag behind where his quality of contact would suggest he should be. Which means that, even with the walls being moved in at Kauffman Stadium, it's hard to project Caglianone for much more than 20 home runs this season. However, that should come with around a .250 batting average and the chance to play nearly every day in what will be a solid lineup in Kansas City.

So does Caglianone hit .250-.260 with 20 home runs, 60 runs scored, and 70 RBI? That feels realistic and makes him about a $6.50 player. Something on par with Josh Lowe, who will have more speed but a worse average, or Alec Bohm, who will have a better average but worse power. It's not a bad profile, but it might not morph into a true difference-making one unless there's a swing path adjustment.

Marcelo Mayer - 2B/3B, Boston Red Sox (ADP:

In addition to struggling in his MLB debut, Marcelo Mayer also has to combat a troubling injury history and the likelihood that he will be a better real-life player than a fantasy asset. The 23-year-old played in just 87 games last season, split between Triple-A and the big leagues, and he played in 77 games in 2024 and 78 games in 2023. Staying healthy has been a bit of an issue. However, there doesn't appear to be anything chronic here. It was a shoulder injury in 2023, a lumbar strain in 2024, and a wrist injury in 2025.

However, I think those injuries and his struggles in just 44 MLB games last year are causing us to lose sight of how talented a hitter he is. He has a career minor league slash line of .273/.360/.466 and has more power in his bat than many expect. He had a 9.2% barrel rate in his brief MLB sample but also had a 48% hard-hit rate in Triple-A last year with a 111.2 max exit velocity. Which all makes sense considering he's 6'3" and 190 pounds; this is not a small, slap-hitting middle infielder. Mayer has registered some 25% strikeout rate seasons, but he also didn't chase much out of the zone at Triple-A and had an 87% zone contact rate.

The biggest question is whether the gains we saw at Triple-A early last year were legitimate or just him taking advantage of lesser competition because they disappeared when he got to the big leagues. Mayer had cut his swinging strike rate (SwStr%) by over 3%. He was making a career-high 77% contact, and he was being far more selective than he had been in previous seasons. Then, he got to the big leagues, and his overall swing rate jumped, his chase rate jumped, his swinging strike rate was back up near 14%, and he stopped pulling the ball. To me, a lot of that suggests a young player who struggled to immediately adjust to higher-quality pitching.

Mayer has always registered walk rates near 10%, but his was just 5.9% in his 44 MLB games. He never pulled the ball less than 42% of the time in the minors, but he had a 38% mark in 2025 in Boston. He was thrown into a pressure-packed situation, filling in for an injured Alex Bregman at a new position on a team that was desperate to keep winning and fight for a playoff spot. I think we're going to see Mayer have some positive regression back towards the player he has been in his minor league career. Yeah, he'll probably still have a 12% SwStr% and a 24% strikeout rate, but he'll also probably hit .250 and club 15 home runs. He doesn't run much, so you're unlikely to get double-digit steals, so a lot of this speaks to a profile that's better for Boston as a team than for fantasy managers.

Coby Mayo - 1B/3B, Baltimore Orioles (ADP:

Thanks to an injury to Jordan Westburg, it appears that Coby Mayo will have a spot in Baltimore's lineup to start the season and could have the chance to hold onto it, given Westburg's checkered injury history. So, how excited should we be about that, considering Mayo had 294 plate appearances last year and hit just .217 with 11 home runs?

Well, for starters, he did sport a 10.1% barrel rate, but that came with just a 36% hard-hit rate and an 87.3 mph average exit velocity. His swinging strike rate was just under 13%, and his overall contact rate was just over 71%. The reason that's a mild concern is that those are close to what he did in Triple-A in 2025 and 2024 too. That's perhaps just the overall contact profile that Mayo has at the upper levels. He doesn't chase an egregious amount, he pulls the ball enough, and he's started to lift the ball more often, ranking 23rd in Pull Air rate among players with at least 200 plate appearances, so he's working to get the most out of his swing, which we like to see. He's also posted better exit velocities in the minors, so there is still a good chance that Mayo has enough power in his bat to be an impactful MLB hitter. Now that he has a starting job, I think he could push for 20-25 home runs if he's able to hold onto the job for the majority of the season.

However, I am increasingly under the impression that it will likely come with a batting average around .220-.230. When you pair that with limited speed and a questionable defensive profile, it's hard to get super excited about Mayo truly breaking out.

Cam Smith - OF, Houston Astros (ADP:

A lot of people are looking at Cam Smith's .236/.312/.358 slash line in his 134-game rookie season, and moving on from him without considering key context. For starters, he came into last season with just 20 TOTAL PLATE APPEARANCES above High-A. He was primarily a third baseman when the Cubs traded him to the Astros as part of the Kyle Tucker trade. Smith then moved to the outfield and played his way into a big league role while learning a new position and adapting to a new organization. That's a tall order for a 22-year-old.

It's no surprise, then, that he started the season slowly, hitting .205/.307/.352 in his first 27 games, with a nearly 30% strikeout rate, a 38% hard-hit rate, and an 85.7 mph average exit velocity. Then things seemed to click. Smith hit .271/.330/.386 in his next 76 games, registering a 27% strikeout rate, 42% hard-hit rate, and 88.6 mph average exit velocity. Of course, as should be expected from a young player making a jump from playing only 32 minor league games in 2024, Smith hit a wall. In his final 31 games, Smith fell back to .137/.256/.260 with a 29% strikeout rate, 39% hard-hit rate, and an 87.5 average exit velocity.

Yet, what I keep coming back to is that, throughout all of that, his overall approach at the plate remained solid.

Cam Smith process plus.jpg

Pitcher List

His Process+ remained at or above league average for the entire season, and the only element that was ever truly below average was contact, which he pulled to a league average mark in the final stages of the season and finished at 73.8%, which is not much worse than the 75.9% league average. His 29.1% chase rate is better than the league average, and his 113.9 mph max exit velocity shows us that there is power in his bat. Smith also graded out as an above-average defensive right fielder, so I'm not sure why FanGraphs is projecting that Zach Cole will start over him.

There are certainly some issues Smith has to work out. It seems like there will always be some mild swing and miss in his game, and he ranked 296th out of 348 hitters in Pull Air rate, which means that his power ceiling will be capped until he starts elevating the ball in the air more. Still, I see a 23-year-old who showed a better-than-league-average process at the plate despite having played just 27 games at the lower levels of the minors before being given this opportunity. It would not surprise me to see Smith take a big leap this year. I just don't think the power will truly come without a change in his attack plan.

Thomas Saggese - 2B/3B, St. Louis Cardinals (ADP:

Saggese may not have been the prospect that some of these guys were, but his minor league numbers were strong. In 2023, he posted a .306/.374/.530 slash line in 139 games between Double-A and Triple-A with 26 home runs and 12 steals. In 125 games at Triple-A in 2024, he hit .253/.313/.438 with 20 home runs and nine steals, and he was hitting .317/.402/.445 in 42 Triple-A games last year before getting an extended look in St. Louis. With the Cardinals now in full rebuild mode, there is a strong likelihood that Saggese should get regular playing time at either second base or third base, depending on how much contact Nolan Gorman can make or how aggressive the Cardinals want to be with prospect JJ Wetherholt. Or if they now want to start Ramon Urias (I truly don't get that signing from a rebuilding team).

So, if Saggese does see 400 or more plate appearances, what can we expect? For starters, you should get a strong contact profile. In his time in the upper minors, Saggese has produced zone contact rates in the upper 80% range with overall contact rates just under 80%. His SwStr% hovers around 12%, and he has rarely produced strikeout rates above 23%. When he does make contact, Saggese posted solid hard hit rates last year of 41% in Triple-A and 44% in the big leagues. His 100 mph max exit velocity isn't tremendous, but it also isn't awful; however, his barrel rate was below league average in large part because he had just a 32% fly ball rate. In previous minor league seasons, he has been closer to 38%-40%, so maybe Saggese was simply adjusting to MLB pitching.

Another potential issue is that Saggese swings outside of the zone more than average. He has posted solid contact rates on pitches outside of the zone, but it's much harder to succeed with that kind of approach in Major League Baseball. If he maintains that approach, Saggese could be more of a .250-.260 hitter with 15 home run power, unless he starts to lift as he did in the minors. However, Saggese does have 78th-percentile sprint speed and stole 12 bases in 2023 and nine bases in 2024, so it wouldn't be a huge shock if he swipes 10 bases for a team that won't really be in contention. All of that makes for a solid deep-league target, but maybe not a true breakout.

Matt Shaw - 3B, Chicago Cubs (ADP:

Matt Shaw was one of the top rookies heading into fantasy baseball draft season last year. He seemed like a sure-fire bet to be the Cubs' starting third baseman, but he struggled out of the gates and got sent back to Triple-A. Even though he was better when he got another chance, he still finished the season slashing .226/.295/.394 with 13 home runs and 17 steals, which caused him to register just a 93 wRC+ and a -1.8 offensive WAR. On top of all of that, the Cubs added Alex Bregman in the offseason, and it's looking like Shaw will head into the 2026 season without a starting spot.

So what is enticing at all about Shaw? Well, for starters, in the second half of the season, Shaw slashed .258/.317/.522 with 11 home runs and six steals in 61 games. That was good for a 130 wRC+. Even though his strikeout rate was up 4% in the second half, Shaw clearly felt more confident in his approach, pulling the ball over 20% more and lifting the ball over 10% more. Over that span, he also posted a 10.1% barrel rate despite having just a 32% hard-hit rate and 86.7 mph average exit velocity, which shows us that the concentrated approach to pull and lift the ball more helped with the barrels and power production despite not stinging the ball as much as you'd like to see.

On top of that, Shaw sports an 80.6% contact rate overall and a 9.2% swinging strike rate, which means there's plenty of contact in his approach. So we have a young hitter who struggled in his MLB debut and then made an approach change or simply began attacking with more confidence, which allowed him to make more quality contact. The exit velocities will never be loud, but if he pulls the ball in the air enough, he could hit 20 home runs in a full season and be a 20/20 or 20/25 hitter with a .260 average. He just doesn't have a starting job to prove he can be that type of hitter, which makes it hard to choose him as the breakout pick.

Cole Young - 2B, Seattle Mariners (ADP:

It may surprise you that Cole Young made this list, and it surprised me a bit as well. You may see Young's .211/.302/305 slash line with an 80 wRC+, just four home runs, and one steal, and think "There can't possibly be upside here." But that's what this exercise is for.

First of all, Young's 9.1% SwStr%, 26.7% chase rate, and 79.3% overall contact rate indicate a strong contact profile. That makes sense since he never had a strikeout rate over 16% in the minors and had a 91.4% zone contact rate in Triple-A. Young is always going to put himself in a strong position to put the ball in play. When he does put the ball in play, his 5.6% barrel rate may not be that alluring, but he did also post a 114.1 max exit velocity, which is tied with Jac Caglianone, who we think of as a power hitter. Now, that doesn't mean Young will consistently hit the ball that hard, but it does show us that he can make authoritative contact.

So that alone makes Young a bit more intriguing than I had thought previously, but then I found something else when I looked at his Process+ chart.

Cole Young Process+.jpg

Pitcher List

As you can see, Young's Process+ shifted in late July to become above league average. His swing decisions and overall contact were fueling that process grade since his power was still below average, but we love to see a young hitter improve his process as his rookie season goes on. So, surely, Young performed better in the second half, right? Well, actually, he slashed .254/.305/.347 in his first 35 games and .162/.299/.257 in his last 39 games. Hmmm, so why did the Process+ grade go up?

Well, Young had just a 5.4% walk rate and 22.5% strikeout rate in those first 35 games and improved to a 16.4% walk rate and 14% strikeout rate in his last 39 games. Part of that his second-half struggles were due to BABIP luck. He had a .318 BABIP in the first 35 games and a .174 mark in the final 39. He regularly had BABIPs over .315 in the minor leagues, so that second-half mark feels very fluky. However, he also had a 30.8% hard-hit rate and 7.7% barrel rate in the first 35 games and a 31.5% hard-hit rate and 3.4% barrel rate in the final 39 games. So part of it is that, by pulling the ball less and hitting the ball in the air more often in the second half, his quality of contact regressed.

Still, this is a 22-year-old who made better swing decisions as the season went on and showed the ability to make hard contact, but perhaps changed his approach incorrectly in the second half or began to be pitched differently. If we can merge the improving swing decisions with the pull-centric approach we saw when he came up, there's a chance that Young could be a .250-.260 hitter with 10/15 upside. That's more of a deep-league target, but it's more intriguing than we may have expected before digging in.

Edgar Quero - C, Chicago White Sox

On one hand, there is a lot to like about Edgar Quero's rookie season. He hit .268 in 403 plate appearances and sported a 81.9% contact rate, 21.7% chase rate, and 8.4% swinging strike rate, which were all well above league average. That kind of elite plate discipline is part of the reason that he always sported high walk rates in the minors, and we should expect the walk rate and on-base percentage to tick up in his second season. He also had a 90.4 mph average exit velocity and 46.3% hard-hit rate, which suggests that there is at least a little bit of power in his bat. That's all the stuff we like.

However, he also had just a 3.7% barrel rate, a 50% groundball rate, and really struggled to pull the ball. Of the 348 hitters who had at least 200 plate appearances last year, Quero ranked 340th in Pull Air rate.

Quero Pull rate.jpg

Baseball Savant

Now, he has pulled the ball more in the minors, but he's also never had more than 17 home runs in a minor league season, so I don't believe we are going to unlock some untold level of power production if he just lifts the ball more. On top of that, Quero is not a particularly great defensive catcher. He had a -9.7 defensive WAR last season and a -14 Fielding Run Value. With Kyle Teel also on the White Sox, it's hard to see Quero becoming their starting catcher. So his best chance for regular playing time is as a DH, but how many teams are going to DH a .260-.270 hitter who has 10-15 home run power and doesn't steal bases? Can that profile really hold off Lenyn Sosa for the full-time DH job? What if Luisangel Acuna takes a step forward and the White Sox need to move Austin Hays, Miguel Vargas, or Andrew Benintendi to DH? There are just far too many paths for me where Quero doesn't bring much to the table in 2026.

Carlos Narvaez - C, Boston Red Sox (ADP:

Yes, another catcher on this list, but we had quite a few intriguing rookie catchers last year. Narváez may have been the one who came out of nowhere the most. The 27-year-old was known as an elite defensive catcher, but not much was expected of him offensively, so slashing .241/.306/.419 with 15 home runs was a bit of a surprise. Yet, this exercise gave me reason to think that there is more left in the tank.

For starters, Narváez was league-average or better in every one of the categories I used for this article. Yes, his 74.6% contact rate was just under the 75.9% league average, and his 12.3% SwStr% is higher than the 11.6% league average, but we're talking about marginal differences here. He was essentially league average in both. He then also posted a 9.1% barrel rate and 28.3% chase rate, which were far better than league average. So he makes good swing decisions, hits the ball with authority, and makes a league-average amount of contact? That's pretty appealing, especially for a catcher who posted the 7th-highest defensive WAR of any catcher who had over 200 plate appearances in 2025.

Yet, there's more to be excited about. Narváez saw his numbers drop significantly in the second-half, but he wasn't just a rookie catcher who wore down; he was playing through a knee injury for the final three months of the season before having to get offseason surgery. According to Narváez in that linked interview, before the Red Sox's West Coast trip, which began on June 16th, he felt knee pain so bad that he was brought to tears, and the MRI showed that he would eventually need knee surgery. So if we use that as a cut-off date, Narváez was hitting .282/.366/.457 with six home runs and a 12.4% barrel rate before June 16th. From June 17th until the end of the season, he hit .205/.251/.386 with nine home runs but a 6.3% barrel rate.

What's more, his pull rate dropped from 44.5% down to 30.2%, which is not a surprise since the knee he had surgery on was his left knee. When a hitter strides, their front heel (on the left leg for a righty) plants into the ground, and their back hip then rotates and creates the torque necessary to turn on the ball. However, if your front leg can't withstand that pressure and remain strong, your front hip tends to fly open, and you don't hit the ball to the pull-side with as much authority. That was clearly at play here with Narváez. His fly ball rates and hard-hit rates remained similar, but he didn't appear to be able to hit as many balls hard to the pull side, and his walk rate also fell from 11.7% before the knee injury to 5.6% after, which may (unless we knew exactly what zones he was swinging and missing in) just indicate a lack of comfort in the zone.

All of this is to say that I think we are ignoring Narváez at our own peril. He may have been hitting over his head in the first two and a half months of the season, but his second-half swoon was also very clearly connected to injury. There's a really good chance that he's a .250 hitter who will hit 15-20 home runs while catching at least 120 games for the Red Sox. That's a major value at his draft cost.

Who is the breakout hitter choice?

So the “finalists” for this award, considering Samuel Basallo and Agustin Ramirez are not eligible, are Matt Shaw, Jac Caglianone, Cam Smith, and Carlos Narváez. I'm tempted to make Matt Shaw the final answer, but I don't see a clear path to playing time for him. Of course, playing time concerns are the reason I chose Evan Carter over Ben Rice last year, and that didn't work out for me. Still, I'm going to stick with the logic.

That leaves Narváez, Caglianone, and Smith as my choices. As much as I like Narváez and believe he will vastly outproduce his current ADP, I can't choose a catcher who is only going to play around 120 games this season. So now we're down to two hitters. When I input the stats I think are most likely for both hitters into Tanner Bell's SGP sheet, it spit out Caglianone as a $6.50 player and Smith as a $4.19 player, so that helps us get to our final answer. I like Cam Smith's swing decisions a bit more and think there is power in his bat, but I think Caglianone's approach is more likely to produce a higher power output in 2026, and he also has a longer runway for production since Kansas City has so few options in the outfield. I like both of them and think they'll both produce for fantasy managers, but I just think Smith may be a couple more tweaks away from reaching the ceiling that I know he possesses.

Roman Anthony should be the Red Sox leadoff hitter

FORT MYERS, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 19: Roman Anthony #19 of the Boston Red Sox looks on as he takes batting practice during a workout at JetBlue Park at Fenway South on February 19, 2026 in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) | Getty Images

For generations the leadoff hitter was easy for a manger to identify: A fast guy. A slap hitter. Someone who could be the “spark plug.” Then you stick another guy as the table setter in the second spot. Probably your best hitter third. And your power guy at the four spot.

And in some ways this wasn’t terrible advice to follow. The problem was that those skills needed to be driven by something else: the ability to get on base. That can come from a guy hitting the ball all over the place or from one taking walks. Maybe someone who can do both. They can even hit for power if you want. A home run is one guaranteed RBI. A double from your leadoff hitter means a great opportunity for two, three, and four to drive him in.

It’s not crazy to think that Roman Anthony is the best hitter on the Red Sox in 2026 and they should absolutely bat him leadoff. As a rookie, Anthony hit .292/.396/.463, and while a lot of things in baseball have changed over the years, having a triple slash of 3/4/5 hasn’t. While that is indeed a small sample, FanGraphs is projecting Anthony to put up a .367 OBP which is also nothing to object to.

In the 106 games Jarren Duran started as the leadoff hitter, his line was .255/.323/.418. Which is certainly a step down. Just looking at the time he was the first batter of the game, it was .214/.274/.429, which is another step down. And leading off any inning in 2025? Now we’re down to .202/.280/.360. This is not a slight on Jarren Duran. He’s a really good player! But when your main goal is to reach base, we might be looking at a difference of 100 points of OBP. If Duran is behind Anthony, he can double him home. If Duran is batting at the bottom of the order, Anthony can advance him if he’s on base and the speed might carry the possibly position less Duran all the way around the base path.

Last year the best player in baseball, Shohei Ohtani, hit .282/.392/.622 across the entire season. As the leadoff hitter in 148 games he hit .299/.365/.649. Leading off any inning, including the first, Ohtani posted a .296/.383/.657 line.

I am definitely not saying Roman Anthony is Shohei Ohtani. He’s probably not hitting 50 home runs next year. Or stealing 50 bases. Or leading the league in, likely, anything. He might hang with Shohei in doubles with the big man himself posting 25. Five Red Sox players hit at least 25 doubles last season and Anthony himself had 18. He might have done it if he’d been healthy. But if you drop the slugging a peg or two and think long and hard about the projected .367 OBP, adjust it down a tad, Anthony is still easily clearing a .350 OBP as the first batter of a game.

Dave Roberts is gifted the highest salary team in baseball in the Los Angeles Dodgers. Many of the best players in the game. The literally MVP year-in and year-out across both leagues. He doesn’t wait for table setters to get in place. He makes every single starting pitcher have to face him as many times as possible. It’s a bold choice. It’s aggressive. And it’s a move Alex Cora is right to copy because a little like the starting rotation last year — Crochett followed by a crowd trying to differentiate themselves — the lineup contains a few more good hitters but probably no other great hitters.