Category: MLB

There are several distinct and telling signs of a roster designed the way the Cincinnati Reds have put together theirs. The fabric of it, if you will.

Back in 2022, the front office decided to end the pursuit of playoff glory with the then-current iteration of players on the roster and instead invest in future runs. That meant cashing in on established players like Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, and Luis Castillo and instead turning their sights towards a future – one with younger players with more team control and fewer salary obligations.

That’s how teams dedicated to keeping their budget at a minimum work. They cash in on the players getting expensive and nearing free agency in order to collect younger, cheaper players with more years to grow into being big leaguers, with hopes the latter can form a new core on a much less imposing budget.

Here we are, though, with the Cincinnati Reds heading into the 2027 season with those then-future hopes of postseason glory still unrealized. However, the players they began assembling five years ago are now barreling into their own arbitration years, and the fabric of the roster is about to get more expensive in a new, different manner.

MLB Trade Rumors long ago created their own proprietary model for estimating the salaries of arbitration-eligible players, doing their best to unmask the otherwise nebulous process and reveal just what takes players from their league-minimum rates into their first big paychecks after they log the requisite amount of service time. And this winter, the Reds will have a full dozen players who’ll be going through that process (if not non-tendered), with nearly half their expected active roster expected to command a total of nearly $43 million.

That group is headlined by Elly De La Cruz, whom MLBTR estimates will command a salary of $7.9 million in his first trip through the arb process. The arbitration process leans heavily on straightforward production statistics like homers and steals, and obviously Elly – who just joined the 30-30 club for the first time – has logged those in spades. So, too, has Spencer Steer across his first four full years as a big leaguer, and he’s estimated to command a $5.7 million salary for 2027 that mirrors that of lefty Nick Lodolo behind Elly’s nearly $8 million mark.

Reds Arbitration Estimates

Tejay Antone – $1.5 million

Nick Lodolo – $5.7 million

Graham Ashcraft – $2.2 million

Tony Santillan – $2.5 million

Spencer Steer – $5.7 million

JJ Bleday – $4.8 million

Matt McLain – $4 million

Brandon Williamson – $1.3 million

Andrew Abbott – $4.5 million

Elly De La Cruz – $7.9 million

Oswaldo Cabrera – $1.1 million

Dane Myers – $1.5 million

All told, it’s a reflection of the larger problem facing the Reds. They have assembled a roster that’s aging into free agency and getting more expensive all while facing dwindling team control while having piled up not nearly enough wins for the expectations of the front office (or the fans). And now, the people pulling the strings get to decide if they want to pay the increased rates to keep this core around for another year or move on to younger, cheaper players (a la their 2022 strategy) in order to begin building towards some other far-off pipe dream.

In case you were sleeping under a rock, Drew Rasmussen gave the Yankees their worst performance in playoff history by nearly no-hitting them in Game 1 of the ALDS, including a (for them) record 23 swinging strikes, a feat all the more remarkable given that he didn’t pick up his tenth until the top of the fourth.

It was a dazzling outing, but here are my favorites from his night under the spotlight.

1. Top 1 – Ben Rice strikes out swinging.

This was the tone setter. After a cutter to what should have been Bronx star Ben Rice’s wheelhouse, Rasmussen fed two change ups that Rice whiffed on each time. Delicious.

2. Top 4 – Spencer Jones strikes out swinging.

Ok to show you this next pitch we need context, because the fourth inning is where Rasmussen settles in.

This video comes back late from the highlight grab by Simpson and nearly misses a ludicrous cutter. I can’t imagine what this must look like out of the hand for Spencer Jones, but it must have been houdini magic.

Seeing that, Rasmussen fed him another cutter in the zone to let him try and hit it — Jones couldn’t…

Rasmussen then follows it up with what might be my favorite pitch of the night, going up and in on Jones and completely blowing his mind. He sees another fastball, he knows he’s supposed to swing, and he doesn’t stand a chance, because this time it’s the four seam variety.

Brilliant.

3. Top 4 – George Lombard Jr. strikes out swinging

This is another sequence to be adored, in the following at bat. Rasmussen freezes Lombard with a cutter inside, fans him on a change low and away that Lombard did not stand a chance on, and then breaks out the four-seam again. This trick works on both hands.

It’s a bit textbook, but it’s also phenomenal pitch calling by Hicks.

4. Top 5 – Trent Grisham called out on strikes.

Grishamsaw three pitches this at bat and doesn’t take the bat off his shoulder, and if I’d been standing there I don’t know that I could have done more than wet myself. It was a change that drops in high and away, a cutter down and in, and then Rasmussen challenges Grisham with a sinker to make you think you need to hit the deck — but whips back into the zone. Yeesh.

5. Top 3 – Cody Bellinger strikes out swinging.

Ok, chronologically this should have been second, but I can’t help myself.

Why this one? It’s just so damn funny. The third inning is one of the few where Rasmussen struggled and he was feeding Bellinger above the zone, but the star outfielder couldn’t help himself and tried to get climb the ladder and hit this?? When he’d already whiffed outside the zone on a closer pitch??? What was he thinking?

The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees are back at it tonight for the second game of the American League Division Series.

The two teams met up on Saturday for an epic pitcher’s duel. The Rays won thanks to a masterful performance from Drew Rasmussen, who came just four outs shy of throwing the 3rd no-hitter in MLB postseason history. Jonathan Aranda provided the lone run of the game as he launched a solo homerun off of Gerrit Cole. Meanwhile, the only hit the Yankees knocked on the night was off the bat of Austin Wells but thanks to a questionable baserunning decision and excellent Rays defense was thrown at third base to end the 8th inning. The ever dependable Bryan Baker set down the Yankees in order for a flawless 9th inning save to close out the Rays 1-0 victory.

Tonight, there could be another pitcher’s duel as the Yankee will send Cy Young favorite Cam Schlittler to the mound in hopes of evening up the series while the Rays will send out the AL Pitcher of the Month, Freddy Peralta, to try and notch another win closer to the ALCS.

It will be an extremely tough task for the Rays to mount any offense against Schlittler. Since making his Major League debut last July, the 25-year old right-handed pitcher has been the American League’s best pitcher. He finished the 2026 regular season with a 1.95 ERA | 2.56 FIP with a 31.4 K% and 6.4 BB% over 193.2 IP averaging roughly 6 IP per start. Since making his big league debut, Schlittler has accrued 7.5 fWAR which is 3rd among all pitchers while his 2.23 ERA is the lowest among all starters with at least 130 IP.

There isn’t a splits advantage to be found against Schlittler, who was equally dominant against both sides of the plate in 2026 with lefties faring slightly better but still only producing a .560 OPS (RHB had a .520 OPS). Lefties also struck significantly more (34.7%) compared to RHB (26.4%). Schlittler is nearly unhittable the first two times through the order but does wear down during the third trip through. It will be interesting to see how Aaroo Boone manages this if the two sides remain in a close late in the game.

For the Rays, Freddy Peralta has been excellent and everything they could have hoped for after acquiring him from the New York Mets at the trade deadline. The ace of the Brewers staff for several years, Milwaukee traded Peralta to the Mets this past offseason following a Cy Young caliber campaign. However, Peralta struggled mightily with the team from Queens during his brief tenure there in 2025 as he seemingly was unable to tap into all of the things that made him an ace in Milwaukee. That changed once the Rays acquired him at the trade deadline.

There were some growing pains over his first few outings, but the work was in motion and soon Peralta had rediscovered his fastball and developed a change-up to pair with it. This combined with an exceptional defense had led to a resurgence. Since the start of play on August 26th, Peralta has a 0.79 ERA | 2.78 FIP over 34 IP. That is the lowest mark in baseball over that time with his mound opponent, Cam Schlittler ranking 2nd with a 1.01 ERA.

The Rays offense was mostly quiet during game one as Gerrit Cole and the Yankees bullpen kept the lineup in check. They pitched around Junior Caminero and there were just a few opportunities to score on three walks and five hits.

The ceremonial first pitch tonight will be thrown by former Rays first baseman, Carlos Pena. The slugging first baseman still holds the single-season franchise record for most homeruns in a season and was an integral part of the team’s turnaround in 2008. After a year away in 2011, he returned in 2012 to one of the largest ovations in Tropicana Field history and promptly hit a grand slam in one of those magical baseball moments.

First pitch is slated for 8pm tonight on TBS.

LOS ANGELES — By losing Game 2 of the National League Division Series on Sunday night, the Dodgers and Braves are now tied at one game apiece in the series, and home-field advantage wrests with Atlanta with the next two games at Truist Park. The Dodgers need to win at least once in Atlanta to ensure they will play again at Dodger Stadium this season.

Let’s take a look at the possibilities for the next time the Dodgers will play at Chavez Ravine.

Friday, October 9, NLDS Game 5 vs. Braves

This seems like the most likely scenario. If the Dodgers and Braves split the two games in Atlanta, the Division Series will be decided on Friday, October 9 in Los Angeles with a winner-take-all Game 5.

Sunday, October 11, NLCS Game 1 vs. Padres

This is the least likely of the scenarios, mostly because too many things need to happen for this to come true. First, the Dodgers would need to win the NLDS over the Braves before coming home, by beating them twice in Atlanta. And it would require the Padres to overcome their 2-0 hole to the Brewers in the other NLDS, winning the next three games.

Wednesday, October 14, NLCS Game 3 vs. Brewers

The Brewers have three chances to win the one game they need to advance to a second straight NLCS, and with the best record in baseball at 103-59, the Brewers would start any series at home in Milwaukee. This scenario would also require the Dodgers to win two in a row in Atlanta, avoiding the home Game 5 of the NLDS.

Thursday, March 26, 2027 vs. Braves (or later?)

If the Dodgers lose the next two games in Atlanta, their 2026 season is over, and it’ll be time to look ahead to 2027. Opening day is scheduled for next March 26 at Dodger Stadium, but there will be a lockout once the collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1, followed by a long battle between the owners and players over a new CBA. Whether next season starts on time is yet another variable to consider.

Now that the Cubs’ season came to an unfortunately early end, it’s time to turn our eyes to the Mesa Solar Sox, the Cubs’ affiliate in the Arizona Fall League. The 2026 season started on Saturday and we’ve got a look at the Cubs prospects and how they did over the weekend.

In case you’ve forgotten, or in case you never knew in the first place, the Arizona Fall League is a minor league that starts in early October and goes on for about six weeks. The idea behind it has changed over the years, but today it mostly serves as a place for minor leaguers whom their team thinks could benefit from some extra games. In the case of the Cubs, at least, this often but not always means players who were injured over the course of the season. Sometimes they’ll send a player to the AFL whom they’re evaluating on whether or not to protect from the Rule 5 Draft. However, sometimes teams will send a top prospect to the AFL because they think they could benefit from working with coaches and teammates from other organizations. For example, the Solar Sox can boast of the Angels’ top prospect Arjun Nimmala on their roster this year.

Also, sometimes players establish themselves as top-tier prospects in the AFL. Last year, catcher Owen Ayers thrust himself into the conversation of the Cubs’ top prospects with a very impressive AFL campaign. He built on that success with a strong 2026 in the minors and he’s now universally considered to be one of the Cubs’ top five prospects after barely scraping the bottom of the Top 30 before his AFL performance.

One piece of bad news, however, is that the Cubs’ second-round pick, Myles Bailey, will not be playing in the AFL. He was originally announced as being on the roster after having not played an official game since he broke his ankle in late March when he was still playing for Florida State. I had hoped to finally see what Bailey could do against professional pitching, but I guess we have to wait until April for that.

So as a quick refresher, there are six AFL teams and their rosters are each made up of player from five different organizations. Every year, Cubs prospects compete for the Mesa Solar Sox, who play their home games at Sloan Park, the Spring Training home of the Cubs in Mesa. The Athletics, who also train in Mesa, also are on the Solar Sox every year as well. The other three teams on the Solar Sox rotate in and out. In addition to the Cubs and A’s, this year’s Solar Sox feature prospects from the Angels, Blue Jays and Red Sox. Last year, the Marlins, Rays and Yankees joined the Cubs and A’s on the Solar Sox.

The Solar Sox are managed this year by South Bend manager Daniel Wasinger.

The Solar Sox have played two games already and went 1-1. The home team is listed last.

October 3: SOLAR SOX 6, Peoria Javelinas 7.

October 4: Javelinas 3, SOLAR SOX 4.

Here are the Cubs minor leaguers in the AFL, a little bit about them and how they did in those two games.

Infielder Juan Cabada. Cabada is the top Cubs prospect on the Solar Sox and is one of the youngest players in the AFL at only 18 years old. Cabada made his US debut in Mesa with the ACL Cubs this past May, where he was sidelined with a lower body injury after just 14 games. (Although they were 14 very good games)

Cabada was out until mid-August, when he came off the IL and was promoted to Low-A Myrtle Beach. Cabada struggled a bit there, but an 18-year-old coming off an injury and competing in Low-A is a tough ask. Still, he wasn’t terrible with a .215 batting average, a .297 on-base percentage and two home runs in just 17 games.

Cabada is a bat-over-glove infielder, but he has a promising offensive profile with good contact skills, solid left-handed power and above-average speed. He should have a good enough glove to be at least a fringe-average defensive second or third baseman. Of course, it’s hard to predict such things on an 18-year-old. He could be better or worse than that.

Cabada played third base in Sunday’s game and he went 1 for 3 with a walk and a run scored.

Outfielder Harrison Feinberg: I have to admit that I didn’t remember Feinberg when he was named as Bailey’s replacement on the Solar Sox. Feinberg is a 24-year-old non-drafted free agent that the Cubs signed this summer out of Northeastern. His college numbers suggest he has a little bit of pop in his bat.

In any case, when Feinberg gets into a game with the Solar Sox, he’ll be making his professional debut. He didn’t play this past season or over the weekend.

Outfielder Kade Snell: Snell is an older prospect at 24 after the Cubs drafted him after his senior season at Alabama in the fifth round in 2025. However, it would be a mistake to dismiss Snell because of his age. Snell is a player with good all-around skills. He makes good contact, has an above-average amount of pop in his bat and can steal a base. He was 19 for 21 in stealing with South Bend last year. Defensively he’s a bit stretched in center field, but he’s a solid defensive outfielder at either corner.

Like Cabada, Snell missed a big chunk of the middle of the season with an injury. In Snell’s case, it was a broken wrist suffered after an outfield collision that cost him seven weeks. Snell will be trying to make up for those missed at-bats as well as trying to establish himself as a solid prospect.

Snell played both games over the weekend, one in left field and one in right. He batted leadoff in both games and went 2 for 4 with a walk on Saturday and 1 for 5 on Sunday.

Right-hander Jhon Cabral: The Cubs signed Cabral after the Marlins released him this past June. Cabral is a fireballer who can hit 100 miles per hour with regularity. He also has no idea where the ball is going, which is why the Marlins released him. In the 82.2 innings he’s thrown in his minor league career, he’s struck out 82 and walked 121. But it’s hard to give up on triple digits.

In any case, Cabral didn’t pitch over the weekend.

Right-hander Anhuar Garcia: Garcia didn’t miss time this summer with an injury. Rather, he missed 60 games after a positive PED test last June. However, when he returned to the mound in late-June, he was a pretty solid reliever for the Low-A Pelicans, posting a 2.49 ERA and striking out over 30 percent of the batters he faced. That got him a late promotion to High-A South Bend where he got knocked around a bit in four games, but he was still striking out a batter an inning.

Garcia relieved fellow Cubs prospect Dominick Reid in Saturday’s game and had a rough go of it. Reid allowed four hits, including two hime runs, over just 1.2 innings. That, along with the three walks and no strike outs, led to four runs.

Right-hander Dominick Reid: Reid is unquestionably the best Cubs’ pitching prospect in the AFL this year, having been drafted in the third round out of Abilene Christian in 2025. Reid made his pro debut this year with the Pelicans and made 12 starts before a shoulder issue shut him down. He was out from mid-June until early September, when he was healthy enough to return the the mound and got a promotion to South Bend, where he made one start.

Reid combines a 92-to-94 mile per hour fastball (although he occasionally touches higher) with one of the nastiest changeups in the system.

Reid was the Opening Night starter for the Solar Sox and he absolutely dominated the Javelinas for four innings. Reid allowed a solo home run to Cardinals prospect Tai Peete, but almost nothing else. Reid’s final line was one run on one hit over four innings. He struck out seven and walked just one.

Here are Reid’s seven strikeouts. [VIDEO]

Right-hander Luis Rujano: Rujano was the Cubs’ 13th round pick out of high school in Florida in 2022. This year the reliever bounced around, starting the year in Double-A Knoxville. He struggled there with an 8.61 ERA over 12 games and was sent back down to Mesa. After a short, six-game, reset in the Arizona Complex League, Rujano was sent to South Bend where he still walked too many batters, but struck out more than a batter an inning and held opposing hitters to a .188 batting average over 12 relief appearances. That got him promoted back up to Double-A and he was much better his second time around, putting up a 2.35 ERA over six appearances.

Rujano has yet to make his AFL debut.

That’s it for this week. I’ll be back every Monday through the rest of the six-week season for a regular update of the Cubs and the Boys of Autumn in the Arizona Fall League.

There were a lot of Nationals hitters who were surprisingly productive in 2026. However, the biggest surprise for me was Keibert Ruiz, who turned his career around this season. Entering this season, I had given up on the Nationals catcher after several difficult seasons. He responded by having the best year of his career on both sides of the ball.

Simply put, Keibert Ruiz was terrible in 2024 and 2025. He was arguably the worst defensive catcher in the sport while posting a .610 OPS over those two seasons. His 2025 season was also interrupted by concussions which put his future behind the plate in question. The vibes around Keibert Ruiz were not good.

In April, it looked like more of the same, at least on the offensive side of the ball. Although he looked better defensively, Ruiz still only hit .178 with a .480 OPS in April. The turning point came on May 7th against the Twins. In that game, Ruiz had two doubles and a homer, which led the Nats to a 7-5 victory.

Keibert Ruiz go-ahead home run in the seventh for the Nats! pic.twitter.com/Ks6YGZ7hvL

— Talkin' Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) May 7, 2026

That game gave us a look at what would make Ruiz successful the rest of the year. All three of those extra base hits were pulled down the line. Keibert Ruiz started pulling everything and it led to a lot of hits.

In the 2026 season, Keibert Ruiz pulled the ball 58.7% of the time. That was the most of all qualified hitters, with the next closest batter sitting at 54.5%. He also managed to pull the ball in the air a lot. His 33.9% air pull rate was the second highest in all of baseball, only behind Pete Crow-Armstrong.

That game against the Twins truly exemplified Ruiz’s offensive approach. Ruiz has always made a lot of contact, but he does not hit the ball that hard and his lack of speed means he is not getting many infield hits. That led to BABIP numbers around .260-270 for his career, which is very low.

Pulled baseballs tend to have higher BABIP’s. With more of those pulled balls, Ruiz’s BABIP shot up to .288. With more balls dropping, Ruiz saw his batting average go up to .280. Since he does not walk a lot, Ruiz has to rely on hitting at least .265 to be a solid hitter.

This year he accomplished that and it led to great results. On the season, Ruiz hit .280 with a .759 OPS. His wRC+ sat at 105 and his OPS+ was 107. That made Ruiz an above average hitter for the first time in a full season.

However, the offensive improvement was only half the story, and honestly the less surprising half. For most of his career, Ruiz did not have a strong defensive reputation and rightfully so. From 2023 to 2025, Ruiz had a combined -39 fielding run value, a truly awful mark. 

In 2026, that changed, with Keibert Ruiz being an above average defensive catcher. He has +2 FRV on the season, with most of that being due to his well above average framing. Catching coach Bobby Wilson completely transformed Ruiz as a framer, something we documented during the season.

I still do not think we are talking enough about just how great Keibert Ruiz has been this year. He has gone from unplayable to an above average starting catcher https://t.co/yZSNZTkE5l

— federalbaseball (@federalbaseball) September 15, 2026

After being a liability for years, Ruiz became a positive on both sides of the ball in 2026. Ruiz will never be a star, but this year he proved he can be an above average player who can give you 100 starts behind the dish. On the season, he posted 1.9 fWAR and 2.2 bWAR. Those are great totals, especially for a guy who had been below replacement level the past couple of years.

Entering the season, Keibert Ruiz’s 8-year $50 million contract looked like an albatross that the Nats might have to cut bait on. However, after this season, it looks like a perfectly fine deal. He actually outperformed his contract this season.

After this year, Ruiz’s contact has 4 years left with $31.5 million left on it. There are two club options after that as well. If he can play at a similar level to this season, that is a nice deal for the team. However, he needs to keep it up.

This will likely be one of Ruiz’s better years, but I have faith that he can be an average player on both sides of the ball moving forward. If he can do that, the Nats will be happy. You do not need every guy on the team to be a star. Having solid guys like Keibert Ruiz matters. 

With all the tough times he has had, you have to be happy for Ruiz. He seems like a good person and a quiet leader in the clubhouse. At 28 years old, he is one of the veterans on the team and carries himself like that. He does a good job working with the pitching staff and just provides stability. 

Keibert Ruiz needed a big year badly and that is exactly what happened. With hard work and better coaching around him, Ruiz looks like the Nats catcher for the foreseeable future. Based on my preseason expectations, there might not be anyone who had a better year than Keibert Ruiz.

Season Grade: A+

Welcome to the 2026 edition of Ranking the Rockies, where we take a look back at every player to log playing time for the Rockies in 2026. The purpose of this list is to provide a snapshot of the player in context. The “Ranking” is an organizing principle that’s drawn from Baseball Reference’s WAR (rWAR). It’s not something the staff debated. We’ll begin with the player with the lowest rWAR and end up with the player with the highest.

---

No. 50, Troy Johnston (-0.8 rWAR)

Troy Johnston wasn’t guaranteed anything when he arrived in Scottsdale last spring.

The Rockies had claimed him off waivers from Miami in November, during that strange period between Bill Schmidt stepping down and Paul DePodesta taking over baseball operations. He joined a crowded collection of first basemen and corner outfielders, and even making the Opening Day roster was hardly assured.

He made it.

Then he never left.

For the first time in his career, Johnston spent an entire season in the major leagues. He appeared in 128 games, received 449 plate appearances and, for long stretches, became one of the more reliable bats in a Rockies lineup that badly needed them.

Johnston spent months hitting around .300, piled up 32 doubles and showed an ability to square up major-league pitching. He also hit just four home runs, struggled in the field and on the bases, and gradually moved from an everyday role into something much more selective.

By the end of the year, the Rockies had a much clearer idea of what Johnston could do. The harder question was how much value that package ultimately carried.

The numbers

G	PA	AB	H	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG/OBP/SLG	OPS
128	449	397	110	41	32	1	4	50	37	83	4	.277/.348/.393	.741

Johnston finished with a 95 OPS+, putting his full-season production just below league average. That still does a poor job of describing how he actually got there.

There were extended periods when he was quite a bit better than that. He hit .313/.371/.448 in March and April, .307/.365/.398 in May and .319/.402/.464 in June. Then came a disastrous July, followed by a .319/.407/.511 August and another sharp downturn in September.

Johnston did not spend six months looking like a 95 OPS+ hitter. He spent parts of the season looking like a legitimately good one and other parts looking like a player whose grip on regular playing time was disappearing.

What actually happened

Johnston wasted very little time making himself difficult to remove from the lineup.

On April 6 against Houston, batting cleanup and starting in right field, he went 3-for-5 with a double, a home run and two RBI in a 9-7 Rockies win. Less than two weeks later, he put together what may have been his best all-around offensive game of the season.

On April 18 against the Dodgers, Johnston went 3-for-4 with two doubles and two RBI as Colorado won 4-3. It was exactly the kind of night that would become familiar during his first few months: plenty of contact, balls into the gaps and production without needing to hit the ball over the fence.

Johnston made most of his defensive time in the outfield, primarily in right field, while also seeing action at first base.

Johnston showed some value on the other side of the ball the next afternoon, making a diving catch in right field for the final out of a 9-6 win over the Dodgers.

The Rockies responded by treating him like a regular. Through the end of June, Johnston had started 68 of the 77 games in which he appeared. His place in the batting order reflected it, too. There were experiments near the top early in the season, but by May and June he was regularly hitting fifth, right in the middle of the lineup.

He kept giving the Rockies reasons to put him there.

On June 14 against the Athletics, Johnston doubled, homered and drove in four runs in a 23-9 win. It was his biggest RBI game of the year and one of those occasional reminders that, while power was never going to define his game, he could still do damage when he got the right pitch.

By the end of June, Johnston was hitting .312/.378/.435 through 284 plate appearances. A player who entered camp unsure of a roster spot had become a regular in the lineup.

Then July changed the conversation.

Johnston hit .148/.234/.185 in 64 plate appearances. He still started 16 games during the month, but his place in the lineup was changing. After spending much of May and June batting fifth, Johnston made most of his July starts in the sixth or seventh spots.

August complicated the picture again.

Johnston was no longer playing every day, but he started hitting again. He batted .319/.407/.511 with a .918 OPS in 54 plate appearances while making only 12 starts. Five of those starts came from the No. 8 spot, and another five of his appearances came off the bench.

On Aug. 22, Johnston had two hits and a double. The next day, he came off the bench and doubled again. On Aug. 26 in Washington, hitting eighth as the designated hitter, he went 2-for-5 and launched his fourth home run of the season, a two-run shot in a 13-1 win.

The regular middle-of-the-order role was gone, but Johnston showed he could still produce when the plate appearances became less predictable.

The next day in Washington offered a reminder of the other parts of his game. Johnston was on first with two outs in the seventh inning when catcher Keibert Ruiz caught him straying too far from the bag and picked him off to end the inning.

By September, the smaller role had largely stuck. Johnston appeared in 14 games and started 11, receiving 47 plate appearances. Seven of those starts came from the seventh spot in the lineup.

On Sept. 6 against St. Louis, the Rockies briefly moved him all the way up to second. He went 0-for-5 with four strikeouts.

Nine days later, Johnston provided one last reminder of why the bat had kept him around all season. Against San Diego on Sept. 15, he went 3-for-3 with two doubles and two RBI in a 9-3 win.

He followed that with a handful of scattered hits down the stretch but finished September at .186/.255/.279, another sharp downturn after the August rebound.

The contact was real, but so were the limitations

Johnston’s July collapse looked dramatic in the box score, but he had not suddenly stopped hitting the ball hard.

In fact, his hard-contact rate increased to 46.7% during the month. The problem was where those balls were going.

Month	AVG.	LD%	GB%	Hard%
April	.313	29.7%	40.6%	26.9%
May	.307	30.9%	39.7%	30.9%
June	.319	26.6%	35.9%	46.9%
July	.148	11.1%	51.1%	46.7%
August	.319	27.8%	38.9%	32.4%
September	.186	28.6%	42.9%	32.1%

When we looked at Johnston near the end of July, the issue was less about finding additional raw power than getting back to the line drives and gap contact that had made him productive earlier in the season.

The line drives returned in August, and so did the results.

That fits the larger offensive profile. Johnston’s .276 expected batting average was among the best in baseball, while his 39.7% launch-angle sweet-spot rate and 86% zone-contact rate reflected how consistently he put the ball in play at useful angles.

But useful contact and damage are different things. Johnston’s barrel rate was just 2.2%, his expected slugging percentage was .375 and he chased more than 35% of pitches outside the zone.

He was good at making contact when he swung. He just did not create much margin for error around that skill.

The platoon split points toward a more selective role. Johnston hit .299/.380/.418 with a .798 OPS in 337 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, compared with .214/.252/.320 and a .573 OPS against lefties.

The rest of his game pulled the overall value in the other direction.

Johnston stole four bases and was caught five times, with Baseball-Reference grading him two runs below average on the bases. Defensively, Baseball-Reference credited him with -9 Defensive Runs Saved overall and -9 fielding runs, while Statcast also graded his range below average.

Baseball-Reference graded Johnston at just four runs below average with the bat. The larger losses came on the bases, in the field and through the positional adjustment, leaving him at -0.8 rWAR.

There was, however, one place Johnston did not allow a run all year: the pitcher’s mound.

He made two appearances, worked two scoreless innings and allowed one hit. Baseball-Reference even credited him with 0.1 pitching WAR.

Johnston also brought plenty of energy and personality to a team that spent most of the season losing. It won’t determine a roster decision, but if Baseball Savant ever creates a personality percentile, Johnston would have a pretty strong case for the red.

Where does Johnston stand heading into 2027?

Last spring, the question was whether Troy Johnston could make the Rockies.

A year later, he is in almost the same place.

Colorado now has a full season of evidence showing what Johnston can provide, particularly against right-handed pitching. It also has a much clearer view of the limits around that skill set.

That still leaves Johnston looking like a possible left-handed matchup bat in a flexible role. His remaining options help, but younger players will be competing for those opportunities.

He made the team last March without any guarantees.

Heading into 2027, there is no guarantee he even gets the chance to do it again.

---

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks! 

The Yankees have nine players eligible for salary arbitration this offseason.

Those players are Clarke Schmidt, Luis Garcia Jr., Ryan Weathers, Fernando Cruz, Jose Caballero, Anthony Volpe, Luis Gil, Heliot Ramos, and Austin Wells. 

Once a player is offered arbitration, the team and that player's agent have until a set date -- usually at some point in February -- to come to terms on a new contract. If that doesn't happen, both sides submit salary proposals and the player's salary is determined by independent arbitrators at a hearing (a timeframe that could be impacted this offseason by the expected lockout).

A team can also offer arbitration to a player and then trade that player. So the Yankees can tender contracts to players who might not be in their plans.

According to the MLB Trade Rumors algorithm that "looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation," here's what the Yankees' arbitration-eligible players are projected to make in 2027...

Luis Garcia Jr: $11 million

Clarke Schmidt: $4.5 million

Anthony Volpe: $4 million

Jose Caballero: $3.7 million

Heliot Ramos: $3.2 million

Ryan Weathers: $3.1 million

Austin Wells: $2.6 million

Fernando Cruz: $2.3 million

Luis Gil: $2.3 million

If the Yankees tender contracts to all of the above players and they receive salaries similar to the projections, it would add roughly $36.7 million to the payroll.

As things currently stand, New York has just over $276 million on the books for 2027.

The Chicago White Sox are quickly becoming the road warriors of the MLB playoffs.

After sweeping the Astros in Houston during the American League wild-card round, Chicago opened the ALDS by shutting out the Cleveland Guardians 3-0 on Saturday at Progressive Field.

Now the White Sox have a chance to seize control of the series.

A victory Monday would send them back home with a 2-0 lead and within one win of their first American League championship series appearance since their 2005 World Series-winning season.

The Guardians, meanwhile, are trying to avoid heading to Chicago facing elimination, with MLB strikeout leader Gavin Williams set to take the mound in a crucial Game 2.

Follow along for live updates, lineup news, key moments, analysis and highlights from White Sox vs. Guardians in the ALDS.

MOST MLB POSTSEASON HOME RUNS: See the all-time list of career leaders

White Sox vs Guardians live box score

What time does White Sox vs Guardians start?

The Guardians host the White Sox on Monday, Oct. 5. First pitch is scheduled for 5 p.m. (ET).

How to watch White Sox vs Guardians

First pitch between the Guardians and White Sox is scheduled for 5 p.m. (ET) on Monday, Oct. 5.

• TV:TBS
• Streaming:Sling, HBO Max

Watch the MLB Postseason on Sling

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: White Sox vs. Guardians updates: Chicago eyes commanding ALDS lead

Information in this article was imported automatically into a template written and reviewed by a USA TODAY Sports editor. You can send feedback using this form.

Our editors independently choose our recommendations. Some content is produced with paid support from a third party, however our editorial decisions remain independent. If you buy through our links, the USA TODAY Network may earn a commission. Prices and availability may change.

For the thirteenth time in franchise history, the Giants have ended a regular season with 90+ losses. It’s the tenth time in the San Francisco era where the team has piled up that much losing in a single year and the fourth time in the Oracle Park era. In fact, since 2000, the San Francisco Giants have had fewer winning seasons (13) than winning ones (14). But there were the Bonds years and those three World Championships, so, it’s not like we haven’t been able to enjoy plenty of positives since the turn of the century.

Still, that’s a surprising amount of losing for what’s supposed to be one of baseball’s crown jewel franchises and for a team that touts its desire to remain competitive (while still being financially responsible). The Giants are a money-making business and they’re quite good at making money. Which might explain why the baseball operation doesn’t come off as successful. But maybe that’s all relative?

For one thing, we don’t have to view their two recent 81-81 seasons as bad things. Maybe they’re not technically “winning” seasons, but the Houston Astros just (briefly) made the postseason with that exact record. If that’s now a bar for success, then maybe the Giants have, in some lowered measure approximating respect, managed to have a good amount of success in their waterfront park (15 non-losing seasons to 12).

And for another thing, since this ownership group took control and saved the team from moving to Tampa Bay, they’ve posted the 8th-most wins in MLB with a record of 2,756-2,583 (.516). 9 playoff appearances in 34 seasons. 3 World Championships. Those Bonds year. That beautiful stadium. Jeff Kent is a Hall of Famer. Dusty Baker and Bruce Bochy are headed there, too. Buster Posey, too. Brian Sabean, probably. It has been a really high volume of success. They’re not in the top 3, but they have a good showing on the winning Top 10:

• Yankees: 3,110-2,224
• Atlanta: 2,990-2,346
• Dodgers: 2,987-2,353
• Red Sox: 2,890-2,450
• Cardinals: 2,855-2,480
• Guardians: 2,832-2,502
• Astros: 2,789-2,550
• Giants: 2,756-2,583
• Phillies: 2,710-2,630
• Mariners: 2,681-2,656

The Yankees have stayed The Yankees. The Dodgers are what they are (criminals). Boston broke their curse and basically remade themselves into a topflight organization (though with plenty of behind the scenes drama).

They are the top 3 organizations in the sport. If a fourth team joined them on a Mt. Rushmore, who would be the best fit?

Atlanta raises the question of, “is it better to be in the playoffs every year or is it better to win the World Series a few more times?” because in the span of time when the Giants have been owned by this particular group, Atlanta has won just 2 world championships in 23 trips to the postseason (including the current one). Still, that’s a lot more money each year with postseason revenue…

The Phillies have been chasing their 1 title in 2008 for nearly two decades now. They and Atlanta are also the two losingest franchises (11,457 and 11,096, respectively).

The Guardians sure do win a lot except for when it counts the most. They’ve won just 2 championships and the last one was in 1948.

The Mariners don’t even have the titles under their belt.

There’s nothing genuine about what the Astros did. Lose 100 games for a few years, get some talent, then cheat when the games matter most? Add to that, Jeff Luhnow has been the architect of MLB’s assault on its labor force. Just don’t see how Houston could join those three teams.

This “since 1993” cutoff cuts off the Tampa Bay Rays, who might warrant general consideration.

The Cardinals probably have the strongest claim insofar as they have 11 championships to their name. They have the history and tradition angle. Their stadium’s even a little bit younger than Oracle Park.

But there was a moment in time, alllllll the way back in the 2010s, when the San Francisco Giants had the chance to be one of baseball’s big 4 teams, setup by those 3 titles in 5 seasons along with the ballpark and all the history. That didn’t wind up being the case, because baseball is very hard and the dominant Giants of the past can’t really exist in today’s world, but rather than stumble around for an idea here, let me bring this piece into focus:

Are the Giants losers? Are we rooting for a losing franchise? Have the San Francisco Giants held on to their brief success in the 2010s so hard and so long that they’ve actually become losers? Did they become Al Bundy? It’s entirely possible that Buster Posey stepping into the role of President of Baseball Operations was that particular fever or malaise breaking, but the results haven’t quite followed and really oughtn’t figure to follow — at least in the next couple of years.

They’re still #8 in wins in this Oracle Park era (2,198-2,071, .515) and with three championships, they’re tied with the Dodgers for the moment. Seems impossibly stupid to describe them as losers or even suggest it. I also consider “loser” more of a state of mind or behavioral, and as disappointing (or abhorrent) as the Giants’ behavior has been recently, I’ve got to admit that the winning is strong enough to balance that out to a degree.

But how should we describe this moment in time?

If we chop off the first 10 seasons of Oracle Park history and just look at their record since their dynasty of the 2010s began, they fall to thirteenth in wins (1,343-1,309), in an exact tie with the Chicago Cubs. They’re the last two teams with winning records (.506) in MLB over this span. That’s… remarkable. And shocking. And… not great for a team that won three titles in five seasons.

The Boston Red Sox, who’ve won the most World Series in the 21st century so far, are just #8 in wins (1,401-1,251; .528), but I think that speaks more to the top heaviness that the league has settled into. And that’s not a comment on the league’s financials. Look at the list:

• Dodgers: 1,570-1,082 (.592)
• Yankees: 1,508-1,143 (.569)
• Rays: 1,440-1,213 (.543)
• Atlanta: 1,430-1,220 (.540)
• Cardinals: 1,421-1,229 (.536)
• Brewers: 1,419-1,234 (.535)
• Guardians: 1,403-1,246 (.530)
• Red Sox: 1,401-1,251 (.528)
• Astros: 1,365-1,286 (.515)
• Phillies: 1,353-1,299 (.510)
• Blue Jays: 1,345-1,307 (.507)
• Cubs: 1,343-1,309 (.506)
• Giants: 1,343-1,309 (.506)
• Rangers: 1,233-1331 (.498)
• Mets: 1,318-1,334 (.497)

The list gets even scarier if you just look at their record since the start of 2017. The Giants drop to 18th (736-782, .485). Only two other teams with sub-.500 records are ahead of them: the Mets (758-760) and Dbacks (750-768). The 12 teams with fewer wins since the end of the dynasty: A’s, Reds, Nats, Rangers, O’s, Angels, Pirates, Marlins, Tigers, White Sox, Royals, Rockies. This is a rough group to be a part of and it’s a little surprising that everyone running the team seems perfectly fine with it.

Forget the division. The franchise isn’t even a third Wild Card contender. Baseball keeps lowering the bar and the Giants keep lowering theirs to come up short. And if you think that sounds extreme, since the third Wild Card was introduced for the 2022 season, the Giants are 386-424 (.477) — 21st in wins.

Both John Shea and former site contributor groug have taken a look at the Giants ownership group over the past several years and the two reporters have sort of hit on the same idea: the group is a hybrid of old family money who invested because they’re fans of the team alongside “a sports team is a sensible investment” new money. Has the decision-making of the majority owners become calcified to the point that the demands of the new money sort of even the team out to simply being an extraction business? Are the Giants just in it for the theater and China Basin? Maybe that has always been the case, using the civic pride for the team itself as a wedge issue to get in there and seize valuable Bay Area real estate, greasing the wheels and appeasing any “interest groups” for as long as they’re needed, then discarding when it becomes inconvenient.

So, is this the Extraction Era?

Well, there’s the private financing for the stadium, the $3.37 billion in payroll since 2000 (according to Cot’s MLB Contracts), the Arizona training complex, the improved international facilities… they have invested in the team to a degree. But there’s also Mission Rock. The new money coming in to help with that, even, despite its supposed self-sufficiency. That $3.37 billion in payroll has only amounted to the team being in the top 5 just three times (2015, 2017, 2018).

Again, it just seems odd that a team that has invested so much should come up so short. It has moved beyond disappointment to a real point of frustration. As though it’s just enough money to create the illusion of competitiveness without actually amounting to that. This has truly only been a symptom of the post-championship era, though, which is why I suggested calcification and a de-prioritization of success.

To wit, the pandemic/COVID season really does skew things a bit, but the Giants have never lost so many games (782) in a 1,518-game span… in their history!

Obviously, this stretch isn’t as bad as the 1970s. The Giants traded away Willie Mays in 1972, and from 1972-1985, the team was dreadful, losing 1,165 out of 2,208 games (.472). This is the only span in Giants history where that’s happened. In fact, if you drop the search criteria to a minimum of 1,100 losses out of 2,200 games, this is still the losingest stretch in franchise history. I still need to see the results of 4 more seasons before I can have any room to complain! And I might not even have that “right” in 2031, given that the team won a franchise-record 107 games… and my personal assurance that the team will be competitive again in 2030.

But, also, the team has the #1 rated farm system at the moment. 2030 might be a little conservative. This enterprise could turn around well before then. And I can’t help but note that I can throw in positives no matter how much history I cite. Maybe this agonizing over the team being one of the worst in the sport for most of the last decade and a decent chunk of the century is entitlement.

Sure, we watch sports to be entertained. But if we’re following them every day in a six-month season, aren’t we also doing so to watch peak performance along with the thrill of victory? I’m not sure what the value proposition is with professional competitive live sports beyond that. I guess I’m mentioning this because a criticism of people who wonder about the team’s track record is that it sounds like entitlement.

It just seems to be getting more difficult with each passing year to play the “wait ‘til next year”/“hope springs eternal” card. Year after year, the Giants have managed to tack on as a sort of drag coefficient something to make the disappointment of the season sting a little worse. This year, it’s pretty obvious. That terrible record and all those injuries were made worse by the bigotry. They let down a significant number of fans with that loser behavior. But maybe that’s not the first time something like it has happened. The Giants were probably worse to their fans in the 70s, since everything about the Giants in the 1970s was worse than today, apparently.

But there were plenty of verifiable firsts, things I’d never think would happen: the first time the Giants have gone five consecutive seasons without a plus-.500 record. Or, to put it another way: the first time they’ve lost 80+ games five years in a row. The first time in over 120 years that they’ve ended a season trailing the Dodgers in their now-dead rivalry by 2 games. The first time they blew a 6-run lead in the ninth inning. The first time they offered to pay their fans to attend games in the final month of the season.

It’s unclear what sort of an organization it is that they’re trying to build or maintain. As a money-making enterprise, it’s very clear. Leverage the Giants brand to expand the investments in real estate. Or simply follow as closely as possible the Peter Ueberroth guide to sports business:

“Let’s say I sat each of you down in front of a red button and a black button,” he said at one early meeting. “Push the red button and you’d win the World Series but lose $10 million. Push the black button and you would make $4 million and finish somewhere in the middle.”

He paused to look around. “The problem is, most of you would push the red one.”

Ueberroth chided them for checking their business sense at the door. “You are so damned dumb.”

But what about the baseball operation? It has certainly tested the idea of “somewhere in the middle.”

In the Magowan-Sabean days, the goal was clear: build a competitor that could win a World Series. That’s hadn’t been done before in San Francisco. There doesn’t seem to be that sort of urgency from the organization today and certainly no obvious expertise on which to hitch your hopes. The recycled “Nothing Like It” slogan is pretty telling on that front, I’d say. A lot of half-hearted stabs in the dark at finding the next “thing” that might redefine the team’s identity but otherwise being fine with the decaying state of things.

Under ideal circumstances, teams are able to reinvent themselves by investing in their player development system. With enough time and some luck, a perpetual motion machine provides talent to the major league roster at a low cost. What has happened, though, is that the real estate business jockey that has been riding the horse that is the baseball club has created a perpetual motion machine of real estate investment.

I have often wondered if there’s a situation where the Mission Rock contingent buys up enough of San Francisco that they eventually sell the Giants and rent the stadium back to its new owners, like what Frank McCourt did when he sold the Dodgers but kept the parking lot.

Anyway, call this era what you want, but it’s composed of a lot of losing. A lot of failed attempts at returning to relevance, too, though. Ownership got what it wanted, but we root for the team because we’re interested in seeing them win, not watching their ownership expand their portfolios. But that seems to be the only upside for the business these days. The front office seems out of their depth and none of the public-facing figures are a good quote, a positive presence, or inspiring of confidence. Winning can usually flip perception 180 degrees within just a single season, but we haven’t seen the San Francisco Giants win in a long time.

The Wild Card Series came and went this year without much intrigue. The Yankees blew the Red Sox out of the water, the White Sox stuck the final stake into the dying heart of the Astros, and the Padres embarrassed the Cubs. None of those series were competitive, but there was one that at least reached a Game 3: the divisional battle between the Braves and Phillies.

For one side, it was a mental block that had to be erased. The Braves hadn’t won a playoff series since winning the World Series in 2021, and had lost to the Phillies in consecutive NLDS in 2022 and 2023 to springboard their latest contention window. It’s a win-now core, and even though they had a lot of issues, they weren’t a team that can accept a loss this early.

The other side couldn’t really accept that either: the Phillies had been eliminated earlier and earlier since a heartbreaking loss in the 2022 World Series. Their core was much older, with much less young talent to supplement it. They had stumbled into the playoffs with a disastrous final week that messed up their pitching. They had reached the point where most teams are at the end of their contention window. If you don’t show reason to believe in this core, it’s going to be dismantled.

The Braves won that grudge match in Game 3, sending the Phillies home with another disastrous season and ensuring no October baseball in the City of Brotherly Love for the first time in five years. It’s a sobering defeat for a team whose best players are past their prime, which has an interim manager, and which faces an extremely bleak outlook. Such a bleak outlook is solely because of one man and his ideas of roster construction: Dave Dombrowski.

At the same time that the Phillies and their brass were openly wondering what was next for the franchise, the Yankees were preparing to play Game 1 of the ALDS at Tropicana Field, which they lost last night in St. Petersburg. It came in the team’s 34th consecutive winning season and their ninth playoff appearance in the last 10 years.

Despite having a core of older veterans who do have a gradually closing window, like the Phillies, the Yankees found a lifeline in the development of two little-known prospects into the likely AL Cy Young and a slugging first baseman/DH who will get down-ballot MVP votes in his second full season. The much-maligned architect of this entire core, and several before it, is Brian Cashman.

Cashman and Dombrowski have spent a long time as adversaries. While he was no longer in charge, a roster full of players acquired under Dombrowski beat the dynasty Yankees in the 2003 World Series. His next team, the Tigers, beat the Yankees in the postseason in 2006, 2011, and 2012. His Red Sox took out the Yankees in 2018 en route to a World Series. You’d think the guy who has won all these head-to-head battles would be heads and shoulders above, but then you must wonder why he’s had to bounce around so much.

Here, what we really get is two entirely different executives with entirely different philosophies about how to build a contender. Neither has much experience overseeing failure, so the large part of their careers has been defined by their climb toward the top of the mountain.

With Cashman, as we’ve seen for essentially three decades, it’s an approach that is more focused on long-term sustainability. He’s been blessed with the power of working with one of the league’s deepest pockets in the biggest market in baseball, which usually allows him the bandwidth to fill crippling holes. His approach in the offseason is predicated on getting high-end talent on big deals in free agency to flex their financial muscle, but also making shrewd, under-the-radar trades to fill much of the roster.

While he’s willing to shell out for big contracts both via trade and in free agency and absorb the financial risk that he knows ownership can deal with, he’s more measured when it comes to truly taking that next step. You’ll see him balk at an additional year in a free-agent deal or hold onto a top prospect in trade discussions for a top-level talent. There are times this works, but there are also times he’s left at the altar and burned for it. Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s free agency and trade discussions for Gerrit Cole in the winter of 2017 ring a bell for that.

That restraint is based on his belief in long-term sustainability. The Yankees rarely have a great farm system, but if they can produce an era-defining superstar (hello, Aaron Judge), it makes everything drastically different for roster construction. By that note, he’ll always leave holes on the roster to allow for a cheap, homegrown player to fill them. From here, it can go two ways. You can get a Judge and some great complementary pieces on rookie contracts like Gleyber Torres and Gary Sánchez, but you can also get burned by hoarding a prospect in trade talks (Chance Adams, Clint Frazier, Deivi Garcia).

This mentality is completely different than the one you’ll see Dombrowski employ. His approach to roster building, while similarly predicated on a very generous owner with deep pockets, is more based on taking risks in both free agency and the trade market, pursuing as much proven talent as possible. This approach narrows a contention window, but it’s something he’s able to work off of. It’s a lot easier to do your job when you identify a five-year window to win and disregard anything that comes after it.

Looking at how he’s managed this throughout his tenure, he made some gigantic trades and signings to turn Detroit into a perennial AL contender, acquiring Miguel Cabrera from his old stomping grounds in Miami in 2007 and David Price in 2014, while also inking Prince Fielder to a ridiculous nine-year contract. In Boston, he made blockbuster signings in Price and J.D. Martinez while swinging a franchise-altering deal for White Sox ace Chris Sale. In Philly, he’s been more muted, but gave a massive 11-year deal to Trea Turner to solidify the shortstop position. You’re never bored in an offseason under Dombrowski.

This approach is predicated on doing whatever it takes to climb to the mountaintop, looking to increase the team’s chances of raising the Commissioner’s Trophy at least one time by enough that it offsets the losses that will come down the road. It’s risky in a sport that has so much randomness in the postseason, but if it pays off, it’s genius. Just ask the 2018 Red Sox, who proceeded to bottom out in the ensuing two seasons and only make one playoff appearance over the next six seasons, if they’d trade that title for more wins in those lost seasons.

When it doesn’t work? It leads to a lot of resentment. The Tigers won a pair of pennants in 2006 and 2012, but in an extended, decade-long run with the same core of Cabrera and Verlander at the forefront, the Tigers imploded, missing the playoffs in four consecutive years between those pennants and ultimately wound up spending over a billion and burning up the farm system for no World Series. After Dombrowski was dismissed after a terrible 2015 season, the Tigers wouldn’t make the playoffs again until 2024.

The Phillies hired him to be their President of Baseball Operations in 2020, and he did what he does best. He got Turner; he got Kyle Schwarber; he extended Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. In lieu of blockbusters, he elected to slowly chip away at the farm depth by making a mountain of smaller moves every winter and summer. It was, honestly, his least all-in job as an executive since he was in Miami, but it’s still leading to the same place as Detroit. He was hailed as a savior in 2022 when the Phils won the pennant, but is now on the verge of being driven out of town as they stare down an unbelievably bleak future without a title to show for it.

The strengths and weaknesses of Cashman and Dombrowski are directly opposite of each other. They show the two ways you can run a perpetual contender. Cashman’s philosophy allows him to keep his job for decades and decades, while Dombrowski often gets canned after the contention window slams shut. You might think Cashman’s job security is a byproduct of organizational complacency, but there’s a reason he’s universally revered for his work in baseball circles.

The two rarely go head-to-head for big signings or trades, but you can imagine how they would go. Dombrowski might give a guy an extra year or two in a deal that Cashman is apprehensive about doing. It could either end up like Yamamoto, where his prime wins you multiple championships, or like Turner, who’s turning into one of the worst contracts in the sport just four years in. In the trade market, Cashman might balk at the asking price for a big-time player, while Dombrowski would go for it. That could lead to a massive success like Sale, or a massive failure like what the Mets did with PCA.

If Dombrowski ran the Yankees over the last 15 years, do we see a World Series? I’m not sure. I’d imagine he’d be much more interested in that mega-deal the Braves proposed in 2014 that would’ve sent Luis Severino, Sanchez, and Judge to Atlanta for a box full of proven talent. He’d also be much more likely to pull the trigger on a Kyle Tucker trade that included Ben Rice in the winter of 2024 or a Eugenio Suarez/Merrill Kelly deal with the D-Backs that would’ve sent Cam Schlittler to the desert.

All in all, as the Phillies enter an offseason where they must consider firmly shutting their contention window, the Yankees not only still have a chance to win this year, but seem to have enough young talent left over to win down the road when Judge and Gerrit Cole hang up their cleats. It’s the latest chapter evolving in the several decades that Dombrowski and Cashman have spent as two of the league’s most famous executives, a chess match to truly decide which is the better style of building a contender.

The Mets have 10 players eligible for salary arbitration this offseason.

Those players are Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty, Reed Garrett, Tylor Megill, Christopher Morel, Dedniel Núñez, Cristian Pache, Cionel Perez, Mark Vientos, and Austin Warren.

Once a player is offered arbitration, the team and that player's agent have until a set date -- usually at some point in February -- to come to terms on a new contract. If that doesn't happen, both sides submit salary proposals and the player's salary is determined by independent arbitrators at a hearing (a timeframe that could be impacted this offseason by the expected lockout).

A team can also offer arbitration to a player and then trade that player. So the Mets can tender contracts to players who might not be in their plans.

According to the MLB Trade Rumors algorithm that "looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation," here's what the Mets' arbitration-eligible players are projected to make in 2027...

Francisco Alvarez: $4.1 million
Brett Baty: $2.5 million
Tylor Megill: $2.5 million
Mark Vientos: $2.4 million
Christopher Morel: $2.1 million
Reed Garrett: $1.3 million
Cionel Perez: $1.2 million
Austin Warren: $1.2 million
Dedniel Núñez: $900,000
Cristian Pache: $800,000

If the Mets tender contracts to all of the above players and they receive salaries similar to the projections, it would add roughly $19 million to the payroll.

However, Morel, Perez, and Pache are potential DFA candidates. It's also possible the Mets move on from Vientos this offseason, whether via trade or by non-tendering him.

As things currently stand, the Mets -- if Bo Bichette opts in -- have roughly $255 million committed to the payroll for 2027. That figure will rise a decent amount once arbitration raises are added in.

As we all process our playoff anxiety for the day, let’s look at some keys and prominent storylines for the Guardians-White Sox ALDS Game Two at 5PM ET today.

Top Storylines:

-Anthony Kay and Sean Burke have dominated the Guardians this season (1.35 ERA for Kay, 1.04 ERA for Burke). Can the Guardians get to them?
-Will Gavin Williams be negatively affected by a lengthy layoff?
-Will the afternoon shadows surpress offense at the beginning of the game?
-Will Game Two be a sellout for the Guardians as fans struggle to get time off work and deal with turbulent economic times (plus, perhaps playoff burnout?)?

Keys for a Guardians’ Victory:

–Hit Burke’s fastball/cutter combination. This season, Burke has thrown the Guardians 98 four-seamers allowing a .278 wOBA, 45 cutters allowing a .077 wOBA, 27 sinkers allowing a .787 wOBA, and 59 sliders allowing a .318 wOBA. The Guardians who have hit him decently: Austin Hedges 1.164 wOBA, Petey Halpin .890 wOBA, Steven Kwan .508 wOBA, Patrick Bailey .445 wOBA, Brayan Rocchio .334 wOBA, and Chase DeLauter .318 wOBA. If the Guardians want to win, they need to be ready to hit Burke’s four-seamer which is gonna be their steady diet today. He doesn’t have a changeup, Guardians. Take solace in that.
–Finally get to Anthony Kay. They, somehow, haven’t done it yet this season. Now, Kay is going to be more effective in shorter stints, like most pitchers, but he does have a 4.44 ERA and a 4.75 FIP. Those are not good numbers. The Guardians’ lefty-mashers – Chase DeLauter, Jose Ramirez, Jo Adell, David Fry and Angel Martinez – are going to need to go into this game ready to put up a good at-bat and do damage on pitches to hit. If they don’t make Kay’s life tough in the first or second inning, I don’t like their chances to win this game.
–Gavin Williams Needs to Make Effective Strikeout Pitches. The White Sox managed to bug Williams by spoiling third strike pitches over and over the last time out. Gavin, trust your stuff, maintain a consistent delivery, and go after these dudes because it’s basically now or never.
–Vogt, Don’t be Afraid to Use Foster Griffin. If Williams runs into some trouble in the fourth or fifth, the White Sox will have a lineup with a good amount of lefties. If Griffin can pitch without running into Miguel Vargas right away, today is a good day to let him use his groundball abilities and lefty-neutralizing skills to your advantage. They’ve seen Herrin and Sabrowski a LOT this year. Let Griffin help.

Overall, the Guardians need to remember that this is YOUR homefield and YOUR division. Come out with a consistent approach at the plate, forcing the pitchers to be in the zone and taking advantage of any pitch to hit you see. I’d predict that if they don’t manage to take at least four walks and hit at least one home run, they will not head to Chicago with a win in hand. But, they’ve got the talent and the experience to redeem a disappointing game one loss. Let’s root them on to make it happen!

We’re already through the Wild Card round and halfway through the Division Series in the playoffs and there are plenty of former Twins making the news in the playoffs. Old friend Ty France almost helped the Padres upset the Brewers in Game 1, but hit a moonshot of another old friend, Trevor Megill, that doinked off the American Family Field retractable roof right into the glove of Jackson Chourio. Meanwhile, old friend Sonny Gray was annoyed that manager Chad Tracy pulled him in the 5th, down 1-0, with two outs and two men on base. Some things never change.

Not much has happened in Twins Territory, other than a final press conference from Tom Pohlad, Jeremy Zoll, and Derek Shelton where Pohlad promised that the Twins would raise payroll in 2027. I’ll believe it when I see it.

The Past Week on Twinkie Town:

• Check out The Feed, where you can add your discussions about the Twins!
• Zach Koenig reminisces about his trips to the ballpark this season.
• Matt Monitto is back with our offseason Twinkie Town movie nights, this time with a spooky theme for October!
• Zach Koenig recaps where MLB and players stand after the 2026 season on salary cap and floor negotiations.

Elsewhere in Twins Territory:

• Dan Hayes at The Athletic reads between the lines of the Pohlad year-end press conference.
• Betsy Helfand at the Pioneer Press looks at how the Twins are prepping for a potentially extended offseason.
• Bobby Nightengale at the Star Tribune evaluates Royce Lewis’ season – and whether he will return to the Twins.
• Nick Nelson at Twins Daily analyzes the Twins’ 2027 roster and payroll as it stands currently.

In the World of Baseball:

• It’s been a busy week in baseball, with the Phillies, Cubs, Red Sox, and Astros eliminated from the wild card round and with each Division Series underway.
• Will Leitch at MLB.com looks at the questions facing each ALDS team going into Game 2 of the series.
• AJ Cassavell and Adam McCalvy at MLB.com look at the storylines around Ty France’s flyball and reactions from both players and coaches.
• Kiley McDaniel at ESPN surveys MLB insiders to see what type of contract Tarik Skubal could earn this offseason.

The reflection of the performance by the Dodgers bullpen in Game 2 of the NLDS is entirely skewed by a dismal offensive showing, making it extremely unlikely the home team could secure a 2-0 series lead. A rabbit hole exists for those who favor a pessimistic outlook, with Chris Sale starting the next game fully rested. Before raising major concerns about the future of this National League Division Series, the Dodgers’ bullpen’s work must be addressed as a positive from this last game; even if it may ultimately be attributed to the loss, it was the most blameless of the three units (starter, relievers, hitters).

Blake Snell’s inability to get a rhythm at any point cost him in length if not in actual runs—the left-hander couldn’t even get out of the fourth, leaving the Dodgers bullpen to cover 19 outs as they trailed 1-0. Snell’s line could’ve been worse, but he had the bullpen to thank for keeping Atlanta at just one, as Brock Stewart was effective in a pivotal spot, retiring Ronald Acuña Jr. with two men on. Given where Snell was, having walked two in his final inning, it’d be no stretch to contemplate Acuña doing damage off him in that spot.

Unlike the Braves, who nearly rode the Didier Fuentes train all the way to a four-inning save, the Dodgers distributed their bullpen innings quite evenly. Roki Sasaki was the one of six relievers to cover more than just a single frame.

Through those 6.1 innings, Dodger relievers allowed a pair of runs, first on an unfortunate wild pitch by Kris Bubic with a runner on third, enough to score a run that would not have come in without it—a few innings later, with a two-out double from Michael Harris II off Edgardo Henríquez to drive in Matt Olson. It wasn’t perfection, far from it, but Stewart, Evan Phillips, Edwin Díaz, and company were effective. If they deliver an outing such as this one whenever they’re called upon earlier than usual and the team doesn’t win, it is entirely down to the offense’s shortcomings.

Acuña stranding a pair in the fourth after Snell left the game was just the first wasted moment for the Braves offense—there were a few more in which Dodger relievers came through to keep this a close game until the end. Even without allowing a hit, Roki Sasaki created quite a mess for himself with walks and hit-by-pitches; his effectiveness and a bit of luck saw him through two scoreless innings, including a bases-loaded double play to end the inning against Acuña. And that’s probably the best way to emphasize how strong of a bullpen performance this was: in three at-bats against the Dodgers’ bullpen, Acuña had a combined total of five players on base, and he didn’t drive in a single run—play these numbers again, and the result is probably different.

The way in which the Dodgers create bullpen depth by maximizing their resources might not be as obvious as with the rotation or lineup, but it doesn’t mean it is any less effective. Lower and lower on the leverage ladder, you’re still getting quality innings from imposing relievers.