Category: MLB

After the sweep at the hands of the Padres last weekend, the Mariners managed to get things back on track a bit with a series win over the White Sox. Seattle hasn’t won back-to-back series since going 5-1 on their road trip at the end of April. They’ve been mired in an unfortunate rut, unable to gain any momentum in the standings. Thankfully, they haven’t fallen too far back in the AL West race; on May 1 they were a game behind the A’s and they’ve only dropped a game and a half since then. Now, they’ll get an opportunity for a measure of revenge against the team that swept them at the start of the month.

Since sweeping the Mariners to start the month of May, the Royals have taken a nose dive in the standings. They’ve gone 5-11 since that series in Seattle and are now battling with the Tigers at the bottom of the AL Central standings. The offensive production has been particularly brutal; during this 16 game slump, they’ve scored just 3.4 runs per game and the last time they scored more than four runs in a single game was back on May 13. For a team that had designs on challenging for a division title or a Wild Card berth, they’ve been quickly pushed onto the fringe of the AL playoff picture.

During the month of May, the Royals have had exactly two batters with a wRC+ above league average. Bobby Witt Jr. has essentially been trying to carry the entire team on his back; his 160 wRC+ is among the league leaders this month and his 3.3 fWAR on the season leads all of baseball. The other hitter who has been contributing has been Jac Caglianone. He’s managed to get his strikeout rate under control which has helped him run a 113 wRC+ this month. Unfortunately, ugly performances from guys like Maikel Garica (62 wRC+ in May), Vinnie Pasquantino (72), and Salvador Perez (92) have been the big reason why Kansas City has struggled to score runs consistently this month.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Noah Cameron enjoyed a solid debut season last year with an ERA a hair below three and a FIP a hair above four. He wound up earning fourth place in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. A college draftee back in 2021, he quickly moved through Kansas City’s farm system as a polished, low-risk starter. He’s got an excellent changeup that has standout fade for someone with such a high arm slot. His fastball gets pretty good ride thanks to his arm angle, and his two breaking balls are pretty vertically oriented. He can command his entire repertoire fairly well which helps the average-ish raw stuff play up a bit.

Once upon a time, Stephen Kolek was a Mariners farm hand who was plucked away by the Padres in the 2023 Rule 5 draft. He had a decent debut season as a long reliever in San Diego’s bullpen in 2024 and then made the jump back to the rotation last year. He was traded to the Royals at the trade deadline and made five solid starts for Kansas City down the stretch. He was pushed out off the big league roster this spring but the injury to Cole Ragans has allowed him to make a couple of spot starts while the Royals’ ace is on the mend. Kolek doesn’t get many swings and misses. Instead, he relies on generating weak groundball contact with a sinker, changeup, and sweeper that dive off the table. When those batted balls are finding gloves, he can be effective enough to work through a lineup a couple of times. 

From a previous series preview: 

Seth Lugo throws the kitchen sink and the bathtub too for good measure. I have eight pitches listed in the table above, but I combined what Statcast calls his curveball and a “slow curve” into one line. And really, his sweeper-slurve is actually one pitch that he varies the speed and shape of based on the situation. That deep repertoire has served him well since making the transition to the starting rotation in 2023. He struggled with his normally excellent command last year, leading to a bunch of additional walks and home runs, but has seemed to have gotten over those issues to start this year. Despite mediocre raw stuff and advancing age, he’s been able to keep batters off balance because they often have no idea what pitch is coming next.

The Big Picture:

The Athletics managed to take three of four from the Angels this week, winning a pair of extra-innings contests on Wednesday and Thursday to secure the series win. The A’s head to San Diego this weekend to face the Padres. The Rangers managed to keep pace with the Mariners by winning their series in Colorado and have another easy opponent on the docket, the Angels. The Astros haven’t broken out of their doldrums yet, losing a series to the Twins earlier this week; they’ll head to Chicago to face the Cubs this weekend.

Your 2026 New York Knicks: I mean Mets…

“Every team is going to deal with adversity. We have got to keep going.” -Carlos Mendoza [New York Post]

…this week the Mets won the Subway Series but lost Clay Holmes to injury…

“It’s really sad what happened to [Clay Holmes]. It’s part of the game. We’re going to support him. We’re going to be right there for him in any kind of way that he needs us, but it just sucks.” -Juan Soto [New York Post]

…but in happier news Luke Weaver pulled off a Houdini act when he /slowing turning my head to check the Knicks score/…  

“I’m not the biggest guy in the room, but I ain’t scared of nobody.” -Luke Weaver [MLB]

…/shakes head/…umm…yeah Luke Weaver came in a bases loaded jam /pumps fist in the air reacting to a OG Anunoby dunk/…

“It’s a cool moment. That’s why you play the game.” -Luke Weaver [MLB]

…uh, where was I, oh yeah Luke Anunoby didn’t give up a run, OH COME ON THAT WASN’T A FOUL, and his teammates were like happy for him or whatever…

“Unicorn stuff .” -Juan Soto [MLB]

“[On Luke Weaver] That was sick. That was fun.” -Mark Vientos [MLB]

“That’s what great players do. Clutch stuff in a big spot. Obviously, we’re chasing some wins right now, and he’s built for that stage. [Weaver’s] got a lot of poise and control and swag, I would say. So yeah, he was ready for that moment.” -Brooks Raley [MLB]

…Brunson’s got to get it going…umm, sorry, Mendoza also was happy for Weaver and I think this was a typo where he actually said ‘unhittable’ but who knows with the way things have been going for Carlos Mendoza these days…

“Weaver was hittable there.” -Carlos Mendoza [MLB]

…but, anyways, the Knicks, sorry the Mets went 4-3 for the week…

“A lot going on, man. I’m tired.” -Luke Weaver [MLB]

…and, it’s looking bleak because the Mets are down by 22 with 8:19 in the 4th quarter…

“They were ultra aggressive, especially the first time through. You look at pretty much every batter there, they were hacking first pitch. They were looking hard, whether it was the sinker, the cutter, 1-0, they were aggressive. Balls found holes. They attacked him.” -Carlos Mendoza [Mets]

…I mean it’s maybe time to put in the bench…

“It’s always good when you show some fight back.” -Carson Benge [Mets]

…take the loss but at least you can rest the starters…

“There’s a couple of things I was feeling, but I was a little quick [in the first inning]. I just tried to kind of settle in, slow myself down and get in my motion and then continue to try to get ahead with the first pitch and go from there.” -David Peterson [New York Post]

…hey, that’s a couple buckets…

“They made some pretty good swings on some decent pitches. Obviously I didn’t have the best stuff, but that’s no excuse for not going out and competing better than I did.” -Nolan McLean [Mets]

…man, they’re kind of on a run…

“We know that we’ve got to start playing better — period. It’s been rough. It’s been … yeah. But that’s in the past. Now, all we can control is every game, every series — the mentality of winning series. We did that this homestand, and we’ve got to continue to do it.” -Carlos Mendoza [Mets]

…this is getting a little crazy…

“He hit it pretty hard. I went back and just missed it. It hit the palm of my hand. I should have had it.” -Nick Morabito [MLB]

…no WAY, NO WAY MY TEAMS DON’T DO THIS…

“Basically, it all came down to where I was starting my hands. That was the stem of the problem.” -Devin Williams [The Athletic]

…YES, LET’S GO KNICKS, I LOVE NEW YORK CITY, NUMBAH ONE CITY IN DA WORLD!

To drop the Knicks bit, here are two great articles that prove, in the words of Sarah Langs, Baseball Is The Best.

“[In a year full of incomprehensible pain, Joe Raccuia said that watching Ewing makes him feel a little better.] It helps” -Joe Raccuia who was A.J. Ewing signing scout while working for the Mets [The Athletic]

“It was go and be a dad and support a young man in Zach or take care of my health. The doctors at Shirley Ryan assured me that my health was in good hands and that they felt as though I could do it. So it really made my decision very easy. To be honest, as a dad, I’m not going to miss this.” -Paul Thorton on attending his son’s big league debut [New York Post]

There was a moment this past offseason when it seemed like the Phillies were considering a reunion with Rhys Hoskins. There was really nothing to the rumors, and it basically seemed to come about because WIP reporter Devan Kaney conflated two different discussions to make it seem like the Phillies were seriously thinking about signing Hoskins.

With the Phillies facing Hoskins’ Guardians team this weekend, and with the Phillies struggling against lefthanded pitching, it’s worth wondering if the Phillies made a mistake in not pursuing their old friend.

Of course, the biggest obstacle to having Hoskins on the Phillies remains: Hoskins can only play first base (and poorly at that) or designated hitter, and the Phillies’ best two offensive players are ensconced at those positions. Any talk about moving either Hoskins or Kyle Schwarber to the outfield should be immediately dismissed. You can get away with that for about seven innings once a week, but it is unfeasible on a regular basis, especially with a centerfielder going through growing pains on defense.

As for Bryce Harper moving to the outfield…he still doesn’t seem especially excited by the prospect. He might have felt some remorse over that decision if Hoskins would have been the team’s answer against lefty pitching, but based on Hoskins’ performance this season, that wouldn’t have been the case.

Hoskins’ stat line is interesting. He is batting .192 (that’s bad) but has an on-base percentage of .353 (that’s good). His overall OPS is respectable, but he’s hit just four home runs, and his slugging percentage is .375, continuing a steady career long decline (also bad). Basically, Hoskins has been elite at taking walks and not much else.

He’s also been very bad against lefthanded pitching, with a .132/.275/.360 slash line. Say what you will about Adolis Garcia, but at least his numbers against opposite-handed pitching are respectable and he plays good defense.

The Phillies’ offseason moves aren’t looking spectacularly successful at the moment, but some of the moves they didn’t make (just wait until they play the Mets) have proven to be wise.

Trivia

Last week’s answer: Before last weekend, the Phillies’ franchise leader for home runs at PNC Park was Jimmy Rollins with five. However, thanks to his two home runs last Friday, Kyle Schwarber is now the leader with six.

This week’s question: Aside from Citizens Bank Park and Milwaukee’s American Family Field, what stadium has Rhys Hoskins hit the most home runs in?

Non-Phillies thought

I’m probably going to see The Mandalorian and Grogu this weekend, but I can’t help but think this movie is coming out about four years later than it should have. It pretty much should have been a two season show, and season two ended over five years ago. Since then, they had to mostly walk back season two’s finale because they didn’t think anyone was going to watch the show without “Baby Yoda.”

The more I think about it, the more I think the season two finale was so well received is because what people really want from Star Wars is more content with Luke, Leia, Han, and company. Recast those roles and give us some adventures immediately after Return of the Jedi before they become the sad sacks we saw in the sequel trilogy. (Or heck, go ahead and retcon those movies!)

You can take my opinions on Star Wars with a grain of salt though. I thought the much-praised Andor was sporadically great but was mostly a slog to get through. And I mostly enjoyed the lesser regarded The Acolyte.

Remembering some guys

The Guardians have a couple of former Phillies in their system who fall into the “that guy is still around?” category.

Connor Brogdon spent five years with the Phillies and always seemed like he was on the cusp of becoming a dominant reliever but could never quite get there. He went from a dominating performance in the 2022 World Series to a guy who was almost guaranteed to walk a couple of batters in every appearance the following season.

It seems that a change of scenery was not all that Brogdon needed. The Phillies traded him to the Dodgers at the start of the 2024 season, but his performance got worse post trade. After another bad season with the Angels in 2025, he signed with the Guardians in the offseason, but struggled to the point where they designated him for assignment.

Kolby Allard wasn’t a Phillie for very long. At the end of the 2024 season, when the team was desperately trying to find a competent arm for their fifth starter spot, they cycled through a bunch of guys, hoping one would stick. Allard was actually one of the better performers, and considering he had a 5.00 ERA that says a lot about the other guys they used.

Allard latched on with the Guardians as a reliever in 2025 and put together a decent season as a middle reliever. But the success didn’t carry over into 2026, and like Brogdon, he was demoted to the minors.

Additional thought about the series

The Guardians don’t have a lot of household names on their roster, but they’re winning games. At 29-22, they’re in first place of the AL Central. It’s somewhat surprising considering that their biggest star, Jose Ramirez is having a down season by his standards.

What the Guardians do have is a group of young players doing well. Travis Bazzana, Brayan Rocchio, Angel Martinez, and Chase DeLauter are all in their early to mid-twenties and are having breakout seasons.

As a Phillies fan, it seems like a foreign concept to have the team’s developmental system produce players who can step in and contribute on the major league level, but apparently it can indeed lead to winning baseball. Maybe the Phillies should try it?

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

The AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians roll into town on a six-game win streak, but Cristopher Sanchez and the revived Philadelphia Phillies are waiting for them.

Philadelphia has won six of its last seven series to get back to .500, and my Guardians vs. Phillies predictions back the hosts when they take on Cleveland starter Gavin Williams, who’s had some wobbly moments this season.

Get the lowdown on this matchup with my free MLB picks for Friday, May 22.

Who will win Guardians vs Phillies today: Phillies (-175)

For the Philadelphia Phillies, the gloom is long gone. They’re now 16-6 since Don Mattingly took over, and I’m trusting ace Cristopher Sanchez to bring the heat in tonight’s contest.

Sanchez enters with a 1.82 ERA, and the Phillies have won each of his past four starts. In fact, the lefty hasn’t given up a run this month — and he’s only allowed more than two earned runs once this year.

Meanwhile, Gavin Williams has posted a 5.12 ERA in his last five outings, and Alec Bohm and Trea Turner are a combined 6-for-9 against the Cleveland Guardians righty.

COVERS INTEL: Cristopher Sanchez has logged a 29.9% strikeout rate through 10 starts this season — on pace for a career high — and he’s racked up 30 Ks across his three outings so far in May.

Guardians vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Under 6.5 (-105)

Sanchez’s red-hot form has dragged down the O/U line, but I’m still taking the Under, which is 8-2 in the Phillies’ last 10 games.

Three of Sanchez’s past four outings have delivered six total runs or fewer, and both these teams rank in the bottom third of the majors in batting average.

Though Williams is still searching for his best stuff, he only allowed two runs in six innings against Cincinnati last weekend.

Meanwhile, the Guardians’ winning run hasn’t really been fueled by offense. They’ve scored three runs or fewer in six of their last nine contests.

Guardians vs Phillies odds

• Moneyline: Guardians +145 | Phillies -175
• Run line: Guardians +1.5 (-150) | Phillies -1.5 (+125)
• Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-1115) | Under 6.5 (-105)

Guardians vs Phillies trend

The Under is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings between these teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Phillies.

How to watch Guardians vs Phillies and game info

Guardians vs Phillies latest injuries

Guardians vs Phillies weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

Memorial Day weekend begins with Friday afternoon baseball at Wrigley Field, as the Chicago Cubs look to snap a mini-skid against the visiting Houston Astros.

My Astros vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks for May 22 expect the North Siders to fly the winning flag at The Friendly Confines in Game 1.

Don't miss first pitch at 2:20 p.m. ET on Apple TV.

Who will win Astros vs Cubs today: Cubs moneyline (-140)

Opposing hitters sport a well-below-average .300 wOBA to pave the way to Chicago Cubs vet Jameson Taillon spinning a tidy 3.28 ERA across an equally tidy 250 innings at Wrigley Field since signing with the franchise in 2023.

I give the North Siders a sizable edge on both sides of the dish following a day off with Houston Astros righty Spencer Arrighetti headed to the bump.

Arrighetti sports a career 5.15 ERA on the highway and faces a lineup sporting the third-lowest BABIP over the past three weeks, after all.

COVERS INTEL: The Cubs have scored just 2.8 runs per game during their active 2-9 skid after averaging 5.5 per to start the year.

Astros vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (+110)

Let’s take advantage of a low total at Wrigley. The wind is forecasted to be blowing in, but not truly gusting, and the Cubs and Astros rank ninth and 10th in wOBA against right-handed pitchers.

Arrighetti’s struggles have been highlighted, and Taillon just allowed five homers and a 41.9% squared-up contact rate in his most recent start.

While a few more fly balls might not leave the yard, these offenses can patch together enough runs to push this total Over the number Friday afternoon.

Astros vs Cubs odds

• Moneyline: Houston +120 | Chicago -140
• Run line: Houston +1.5 (-185) | Chicago -1.5 (+155)
• Over/Under: Over 7 (-115) | Under 7 (-105)

Astros vs Cubs trend

The Cubs have won in 15 of their last 18 games at home (+11.30 Units / 43% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Cubs.

How to watch Astros vs Cubs and game info

Astros vs Cubs latest injuries

Astros vs Cubs weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

We have moved into DEFCON 2 after a bad dinger board last night, with 46% of all home runs hit coming in one of the seven games. Today, with the wind blowing in and lots of rain projected, I'm pushing all my chips into one indoor game that projects well for MLB player props and home runs. 

The chips are going to Milwaukee, where the projections love the prices of most hitters in this game, as regression is coming sooner or later for a pair of fly-ball starters.

These are my favorite home run props for Friday, May 22.  

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Freddie Freeman	+419
Christian Yelich	+700
Shohei Ohtani	+251
💲Today's HR parlay	+11000

Home run pick: Freddie Freeman (+419)

This is a great price on Freddie Freeman in an indoor environment where the rest of the board looks much more pitcher-friendly.

It’s buying the dip on a player who just snapped a 0-for-14 stretch, a skid that came just two games after a two-homer performance. Freeman still isn’t where he needs to be production-wise, but the good times could be on the way for arguably the most consistent hitter in baseball over the last decade.

The projections at Covers love home runs in this game, and have Freeman carrying a fair price in the +330 to +340 range.

Milwaukee starter Logan Henderson is one of the highest-frequency fly-ball pitchers in baseball, sporting just an 18% ground-ball rate this season, along with an HR/FB rate due for regression.

He has been tougher on lefties by batting average, but 80% of the home runs he has allowed in the majors have come off left-handed bats.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Brewers.TV, SportsNet LA

Home run pick: Christian Yelich (+700)

Dodger starter Justin Wrobleski has some decent regression indicators, including a .233 BABIP. He has also been fortunate keeping the ball in the yard, especially considering he has become a fly-ball pitcher this season with a ground-ball rate of just 39%.

He isn’t fooling many hitters either, carrying a 4.9 K/9 and being forced to pitch to contact.

Christian Yelich is heating up after a slow start. He settled back into the lineup last week, has already launched two home runs, and finished last season with 29 dingers in 150 games.

This is a bat with 30-HR upside sitting at +700 against a pitcher with regression flags all over him. Yelich is also the only Brewer to have taken Wrobleski deep, which never hurts.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Brewers.TV, SportsNet LA

Home run pick: Shohei Ohtani (+251)

Let’s add the best left-handed bat in baseball against a pitcher who allows plenty of fly balls and has been more vulnerable to left-handed hitters.

Shohei Ohtani started the year slowly, much like several other WBC participants, but the swing looks fully back after homering last night. He draws another strong indoor matchup today with real home-run upside against Henderson.

Ohtani is slugging .926 over his last seven games with seven extra-base hits, and if he can’t snap my HR cold stretch, nobody can.

The fair price on this, per the projections at Covers powered by THE BAT, is +210.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Brewers.TV, SportsNet LA

Today’s HR parlay

Freddie Freeman	Bet Now +11000
Christian Yelich
Shohei Ohtani

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

It's a return for one of the New York Yankees stars as they welcome the Tampa Bay Rays to town for a weekend series.

Tampa has been hot, winning four straight games, while the Yankees have not. New York has scored a total of five runs over the last three games and lost two straight. I expect we will see some carryover here.

Read all about why in my Yankees vs. Rays predictions and MLB picks for Friday, May 22.

Who will win Rays vs Yankees today: Rays moneyline (+136)

Gerrit Cole returns to Yankee Stadium today after not pitching since Game 4 of the 2024 World Series, roughly 569 days ago, and I’m willing to fade him at anything up to +100.

Cole posted a 4.66 ERA across six minor league rehab starts, and this matchup sets up poorly against a Rays lineup that has the lowest whiff-rate (19%) in baseball.

Last season, Cole still relied heavily on strikeouts despite carrying a bottom 40% barrel rate. The Tampa Bay Rays enter off a sweep, while the New York Yankees have scored just five total runs across their last three games.

COVERS INTEL:Yandy Diaz is hitting .318 with two homers off of Gerrit Cole in his career.

Rays vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-120)

The driving force here is the Cole rust. I projected 8.6 runs, so I'm happy to get this number that feels a half run light. Nick Martinez plays a role here, too.

While I expect him to do enough to get Tampa across the finish line, it won't come without struggles. The xERA of 3.86 tells the true story: Martinez has been good, but he's due for regression.

His 16% strikeout rate sits in the bottom 14th percentile, and a 31% chase rate is a profile the Yankees can attack; Tampa simply outslugs them.

Rays vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Tampa Bay +125 | New York -155
• Run line: Tampa Bay +1.5 | New York -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8

Rays vs Yankees trend

The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 45 games (+19.60 Units / 37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Yankees.

How to watch Rays vs Yankees and game info

Rays vs Yankees latest injuries

Rays vs Yankees weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

After taking two of three from the Padres and enjoying an off day, the Dodgers now are in Milwaukee to start a three-game set with the Brewers.

Milwaukee leads the NL Central by 1.5 games over the Chicago Cubs. They have been winning games, but not by hitting a lot of home runs. They have the fewest homers of any team in MLB so far this season, with 33. Aside from the Tampa Bay Rays, the next three teams behind them all are at the bottoms of their divisions. They also have the fewest total extra base hits in the majors, and have the highest ground-ball rate in all of MLB.

They are doing it by getting men on base by taking their walks and putting balls in play. They have the fourth lowest strike out rate and are tied for third in on base percentage. Then once those batters are on base, they excel at steals and sacrifice bunts and have the fourth highest batting average as a team with runners in scoring position.

The Brewers are coming off a three-game sweep of their rival Chicago Cubs in Wrigley, taking the divisional lead. Their top three power hitters have missed significant time this season to injury, but all three, Christian Yelich, Jackson Churio and Andrew Vaughn, are back in the lineup.

Milwaukee also has a top-notch pitching staff, and the Dodgers are maybe lucky to be missing Jacob Misorowski in this series.

On Friday the Brewers will send Logan Henderson to the mound. Since returning from Triple-A, Henderson has allowed two or fewer runs and gone at least five innings in those three outings. Cumulatively he has struck out 20 and only walked two in those appearances also.

The Dodgers will counter with Justin Wrobleski, who has gone 4-0 on the road with a 1.50 ERA. He has gone at least six innings in his last six starts, including his last outing against the Angels in Anaheim. Wrobleski, who does not get a lot of swings as misses, is facing a team that as aforementioned, doesn’t strike out and puts a lot of ball in play.

With the off day, the Dodgers bullpen will be well rested. The Dodgers offense still isn’t putting up great offensive numbers consistently but still managed to take two of three in San Diego. The offense will have to keep battling in this series against the Brewers.

Friday game info

• Teams: Dodgers at Brewers
• Ballpark: American Family Field, Milwaukee
• Time: 4:40 p.m. PT
• TV: SportsNet LA, MLB Network (out of market)
• Radio: AM 570 (English), KTNQ 1020 AM (Spanish)

Today’s roster move:

Friday notes…

• STREAKING THE WRONG WAY: The Cubs’ current five-game losing streak is their longest this season. Five also was their high last year, but it did not happen until Sept. 18-23. They have not lost at least six in a row since July 7-16, 2022, when they lost nine straight. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• TOO MANY RUNS ALLOWED: The Cubs have allowed at least five runs in six straight games: five, eight, nine, nine, five and five. Six games also was their longest such streak of its kind last season, June 19-24. They went 1-5 then, as they are now. Their last longest streak was eight games, May 29-June 6, 2024. They went 3-5. Their longest streak of allowing at least five runs was 13 games, May 9-23, 1930. They had an 11-game streak, Aug. 31-Sept. 11, 2000, and 10 in a row, May 6-17, 1986. This is their 16th streak of at least six games since 2000. Seven ended at six games. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• THE WALK WATCH: The Cubs’ 228 walks lead MLB. That’s an average of 4.56 walks per game. If they keep up that pace they would have 739 walks for the season, which would demolish the franchise record (656, set in 2016).
• EVERYONE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD HOBY: Hoby Milner, last 20 games since March 31: 1.29 ERA, 0.857 WHIP in 21 total innings.

Cubs lineup:

Astros lineup:

Jameson Taillon, RHP vs. Spencer Arrighetti, RHP

Maybe we should just pretend Jameson Taillon’s last start didn’t happen.

Oh, you can’t do that. Right. So: Five home runs and eight runs given up to the White Sox. Don’t do that again, Jamo.

Taillon has also had some very good outings this year. So, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Last year in Houston, June 29, 2025, Taillon allowed the Astros two runs in 4.2 innings and struck out four. Which doesn’t sound too bad until I tell you that he threw 107 pitches in that game, which, yikes. Don’t do that again either.

Spencer Arrighetti made 29 starts for the Astros in 2024 (including one against the Cubs) and posted a 4.53 ERA. Then he was injured much of last year and made only seven starts for Houston with an even worse ERA (5.35).

Thus his 1.50 ERA in six starts this year has to be a bit of a surprise. He’s allowed one or no runs in five of those six starts.

No current Cub has more than four at-bats against him. Hope they have a good scouting report.

Here is the weather forecast for the area around Wrigley Field.

Today’s game is on Apple TV (how to watch). Apple announcers: Wayne Randazzo (play-by-play), Dontrelle Willis (analyst) and Heidi Watney (reporter).

Here is the complete MLB.com live streaming page for today.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Astros site The Crawfish Boxes. If you do go there to interact with Astros fans, please be respectful, abide by their individual site rules and serve as a good representation of Cub fans in general and BCB in particular.

The 2026 game discussion procedure has been changed, so please take note.

You’ll find the game preview, like this one, posted separately on the front page two hours before game time (90 minutes for some early day games following night games).

At the same time, a StoryStream containing the preview will also post on the front page, titled “Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of week/date) game threads.” It will contain every post related to that particular game.

The Live! (formerly “First Pitch”) thread will still post at five minutes to game time. It will also post to the front page. That will be the only live game discussion thread. After the game, the recap and Heroes and Goats will also live on the front page as separate posts.

You will also be able to find the preview, Live! thread, recap and Heroes and Goats in this section link. The StoryStream for each game can also be found in that section.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

The White Sox spent a little bit in the offseason and acquired a fun player from Japan who has slugged the franchise back into relevance. As fun as it has been to see that the literal Pope of the Roman Catholic church is a White Sox fan, Munetaka Murakami’s fast rise in 2026 has dragged the Southsiders from embarrassing afterthought to a firm “on second thought” team and that alone makes this matchup feel cringe-inducing.

See, the Giants were supposed to be better than the Chicago White Sox. They’re supposed to be the better-run operation. Their player-turned-exec isn’t the one who should be getting grilled by AM radio hosts, it’s Chris Getz, the utility guy who hit .250 for his career then ditched his cleats for the front office, who should be having a tough time of things. He not only put together the 2024 & 2025 teams which combined for 223 losses, he was the exec in the offseason who couldn’t remember the handedness of a player he traded for — embarrassing… right?

And yet, his team has some heat. Not just from Vatican City, but across the country and in Japan. Game one of this three-game series is Friday Night at Oracle Park, which just so happens to be Japanese Heritage Night. Once again, the Giants don’t have a Japanese player on the roster, perhaps not for lack of effort, but they sure could use Munetaka Murakami in their lineup right now.

Here’s an extensive highlights package put together by MLB:

On the other hand, as Ben Clemens wrote for FanGraphs a month ago:

The book on Munetaka Murakami was pretty straightforward when he hit the market this winter. Phenomenal cosmic power – itty bitty contact rate. While acknowledging recent injuries, our writeup noted his contact rates against good velocity (63%) and secondary pitches (50%) as red flags in his profile. And these weren’t little red flags, either. […] “…if Murakami is only ever the quality of contact hitter we’ve seen the last three years, with no changes or improvements, he basically can’t be a good MLB hitter.”

In the 26 games since that post went up, the White Sox have gone 16-10 with Murakami hitting.253/.372/.526 in 113 plate appearances, boosted by 8 home runs and 2 doubles in 24 hits. His 18 walks and 38 strikeouts translate to a 15.9 BB% and 33.6 K%. On the season, he has 17 home runs and an 18.4 BB% paired with a 32.5 K%. That strikeout rate is currently 7th-worst in the sport behind the following players:

• Hunter Goodman, COL — 36% (99 wRC+)
• Garrett Mitchell, MIL — 35.9% (100 wRC+)
• Oneil Cruz, PIT — 35.1% (115 wRC+)
• Ian Happ, CHC — 33.0% (123 wRC+)
• Kyle Schwarber, PHI — 32.9% (168 wRC+)
• Spencer Torkelson, DET — 32.6% (95 wRC+)

I hope the takeaway is not that you can be a great hitter with a high strikeout rate, even as this list shows increasingly better hitters as the rate goes down. The 26-game sampling I just cited suggests that Murakami is trending in the direction the projection systems indicated given his numbers in Japan, too. No qualified hitter ended last season with a strikeout rate that high (Ryan McMahon had the worst with 32.1%) and only Zack Gelof in 2024 could “boast” something worse (34.4%). That walk rate is very competitive, though. It’s currently fourth-best in MLB behind Nick Kurtz (21.2%), Taylor Ward (21%), and Mike Trout (20.4%). His 17 home runs trail only Schwarber.

Why am I mentioning any of this?

Hmm… is it that I think the Giants missed out on signing a 26-year old slugger? Not exactly. I can certainly see the organization not wanting a player with lots of swing and miss in his game and I see that they’re willing to ignore the power potential to back up that belief (hello, Bryce Eldridge — or, rather, is it soon to be goodbye?) and I also acknowledge that 17 home run total might be closer to 8 or 9 playing in Oracle Park — though, it must be noted, the majority of his dingers have come on the road. And, it’s plausible that he’s going to regress to a mean ol’ mean pretty soon here given the spiking strikeout rate. But, just for a moment, it’s fun to imagine a team coming out of a rebuild led by a former player. Sounds nice.

Because how else have the White Sox gotten to the point of being above .500? Before he was the GM, Chris Getz was the team’s farm director. From his Wikipedia:

In 2014, Getz was hired by the Kansas City Royals as their assistant to player development. He worked with them until 2016 when he went to the Chicago White Sox as their director of player development from 2017 to 2020. There, he worked with many talented prospects like Luis Robert Jr., Yoán Moncada, Eloy Jiménez, Michael Kopech, Lucas Giolito, and Dylan Cease. The White Sox farm system was ranked as the best in the MLB in 2017. In 2021, White Sox promoted him as assistant General Manager to then-GM Rick Hahn. Following Hahn’s firing on August 22, 2023, Getz was promoted as the White Sox new Senior Vice President and GM on August 31

The current roster has his fingerprints all over it, both from player development and during a teardown that saw the franchise go 162-324 over three seasons.

C — Edgar Quero (acquired in deadline deal trading away Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez)
1B — Munetaka Murakami (signed in the offseason via the posting season, 2 years, $34 million)
2B — Chase Meidroth (acquired in deal for Garrett Crochet)
SS — Colson Montgomery(1st round draft pick — #22 — in 2021)
3B — Miguel Vargas (acquired in 3-way with Dodgers & Cardinals for Michael Kopech & Erick Fedde)
LF — Sam Antonacci (5th round draft pick in 2024)
CF — Tristan Peters (acquired for cash considerations this offseason — was acquired by Giants in 2022)
RF — Jarred Kelenic (signed as a free agent in the offseason)
DH — Andrew Benentendi (the inherited bad contract — just one more season to go!)

Starting pitchers: Davis Martin (14th round draft pick in 2018), Sean Burke (3rd round in 2021), Anthony Kay (a pitcher I thought the Giants might’ve signed this offseason), Erick Fedde (signed him out of Korea and got the best season of his career in 2024), Noah Schultz (1st round draft pick — #26 — in 2022).

They also signed Seranthony Dominguez in the offseason to be their closer. It hasn’t gone well so far (6+ FIP), but the White Sox kept pushing even if the vision wasn’t quite clear. And from above I intend to illustrate that this is the road map the Giants have been chasing since 2017, just without those 100+-loss seasons as catalysts. Some of Chicago’s later round picks have paid off on top of trades and free agent pickups.

One of Getz’s other key moves was hiring Max Venable to be their manager starting last season. Max and Molly’s kid really wore it in year 1 of his deal (101 losses), but with Murakami and the fruition of some talent development, he’s off to a much better start in 2026. In Wednesday’s post-game wrap, Dave Flemming mused that Max Venable is the first major league manager that Duane Kuiper has ever changed the diapers of and that notion had Kuip feeling some kind of way. Max Venable’s name had been mentioned as a possible candidate going all the way back to the post-Bochy days, but here he is now wrangling another team trying to win its way back to relevance. Who’s got it better right now?

The Giants have lost 3 straight games and are just 7-12 in May with a -26 run differential. Their team 89 wRC+ puts them ahead of only the Mets and Rockies in MLB, but their team batting average of .244 puts them in a three-way tie with Arizona & Washington for top 1/3 of the league, so, who’s to say if they’re bad or not? The White Sox are hitting just .235 but have a 105 wRC+. They also have better pitching (3.8 fWAR to the Giants’ 2.3), but if you’re only looking at ERA then, sure, the Giants have it over Chicago with a 4.17 team ERA compared to Chicago’s 4.35. But if you’re only comparing batting average and ERA, please check the nearest calendar because you might have traveled back in time to some point in the 20th century.

Series overview

Who: San Francisco Giants (20-30) vs. Chicago White Sox (25-24)
Where: Oracle Park | San Francisco, California
When: Friday at 7:15pm PT, Saturday at 1:05pm PT, Sunday at 1:05pm PT
National broadcasts: None.

Projected starters
Friday: Davis Martin (RHP 6-1, 1.61 ERA) vs. Trevor McDonald (RHP 2-0, 2.37 ERA)
Saturday: Erik Fedde (RHP 0-4, 4.30 ERA) vs. Adrian Houser (RHP 2-4, 5.25 ERA)
Sunday: Noah Schultz (LHP 2-3, 4.93 ERA) vs. Robbie Ray (LHP 3-6, 4.28 ERA)

Players to watch

White Sox (besides Murakami)

Randal Grichuk: Here’s where this almost-Giant wound up in 2026. Well, first he was in the Yankees’ minor league system, then granted release, and then the White Sox got him. With three lefties in the Giants’ bullpen, it’s probable we’ll see him as a pinch hitter in this series as that’s been a big role for him in his 13 games. He’s 7-for-22 with 4 homers in this small sample size.

Jordan Hicks: Here’s where this former Giant wound up in 2026. The Red Sox wanted him off the roster enough to send cash, a prospect, and two players to be named later and all he’s done for the White Sox is continue his terrible slide into not being a major league-caliber pitcher. Having said that, don’t be surprised if he’s asked to get key outs in one of these games.

Giants

Victor Bericoto: As of this writing, it’s unclear who he’s replacing or what his role will be, but figure we’ll see him in this series at some point. The 24-year old left-handed batter has an .804 OPS in 186 PA for Sacramento this season.

Trevor McDonald: The Giants seem like they don’t want to send him down when Logan Webb becomes eligible to come off the IL, but it’s always worth checking out one of his starts.

Tony Vitello watch

With Eldridge and now Bericoto on the bench (presumably), might he turn to it a bit more often?

Prediction time

The Giants will win a game in this series!

By now you are all well aware of the quad issue that plagued Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz during the second half of the 2025 season. He rolled into the All Star Game having already hit 18 homers on the season, sporting a .495 slugging percentage and .854 OPS at the time.

During the season’s second “half,” or the final 65 games after the break, he swatted just 4 bombs, slugged just .363, and sported a meager .666 OPS. Clearly the leg was a problem despite him still playing each and every single day, and that was reflected in the decline in his sprint speed, too.

When he broke in during the 2023 season, he was at 30.5 feet per second – in the 100th percentile.

During his first full season in 2024 (when he swiped an MLB-best 67 bags), he was at 30.0 – once again in the 100th percentile.

During that 2025 season with the quad issue, though, he slipped a bit. He still ranked in the 91st percentile overall, but his speed was down to just 29.1.

The Elly we’ve seen so far in 2026 sure looks like he’s not dealing with any quad issues anymore. He’s hitting .290/.356/.525 (.881 OPS) through 50 games, and he’s already swatted 11 homers. Despite the spike in on-base percentage, he’s not nearly on the same pace when it comes to stealing bags, however – he has just 9 on 13 attempts, perhaps impacted by the fact that so many more of his hits so far this season have been of the extra-base variety than in previous years.

It’s not the decline in steals that jumps off the page to me, however. We know manager Terry Francona is much less inclined to push the issue on the bases than was David Bell, who managed during Elly’s league-best steals season in 2024. What’s puzzling to me is that despite Elly a) being 100% healthy this year, by all reports and b) having dealt with a pretty serious quad injury in 2025, he’s actually slower this year than he was last year.

It’s by a significant amount, too. So far in 2026, he’s averaging just 28.1 feet per second when sprinting, and that’s all the way down to the 74th percentile. That’s slower than Blake Dunn (30.0), Noelvi Marte (28.9), Will Benson (28.7), Matt McLain (28.6), and even Spencer Steer (28.3). Elly, who a blink ago was the fastest, most electric runner in the sport, is now just the 6th fastest player who’s donned a Reds uniform this season.

He ranks tied for 107th on the overall MLB leaderboard, and is even slower than 35 year old Phillies catcher JT Realmuto (28.2). Jake Fraley, perpetually on at least one bad hamstring, is faster at 28.3.

I’m not at all sure the origins of this decline. Perhaps it’s still just early season noise, and he’s just not had enough opportunities to motor to 1B on a weakly hit grounder on infield, or to try to score from 1B on a ball in play. Perhaps as the summer heat rolls in he’ll unleash a few faster runs and make this somewhat a moot point.

For now, though, it’s hard not to notice that despite still being just 24 years old and, reportedly, fully healthy, he’s slowed down pretty significantly even from his time playing hurt.

Rochester Red Wings 9, Worcester Red Sox 4 (BOX)

The Woo Sox used up all of their firepower in the first inning on Thursday night against the Red Wings (WAS). Anthony Siegler’s three-run double, and Allan Castro’s RBI single gave Worcester a 4-0 lead after one, before Rochester got the final nine runs. 

Primarily a reliever, Jacob Webb got the start, allowing three runs in 2 ⅔ innings. The loss went to Devin Sweet, who gave up the go-ahead run in the fourth inning. 

Castro and Tsung-Che Cheng had two hits for the Woo Sox, with Braiden Ward picking up his 23rd stolen base of the season. 

Portland Sea Dogs 1, Reading Fightin Phils 0 (BOX)

Not sure in how much detail you may have looked at that box score, but yes that says 20 strikeouts in total underneath the Sea Dogs pitchers on Thursday. They were not playing a high school team, this was the double-A team from Reading (PHI), which has the same number of wins as Portland so far this season. 

Blake Wehunt got things going by throwing five innings and getting the win, while striking out 11 batters. He did so in a nice and tidy 69 pitches, which seems mathematically impossible. Patrick Halligan was in relief of Wehunt, with all six of his outs retired coming via the strikeout. Cooper Adams got the save, striking out three more in two innings. 

Though the Sea Dogs only had four hits in the victory, three of those came from shortstop Marvin Alcantara. Their lone run came in the bottom of the third, on a Nate Baez RBI groundout. 

Each of the other two levels was postponed on Thursday, due to rain. 

Greenville at Frederick will play a doubleheader beginning at 5:00 ET on Friday. Devin Futrell (2-0, 4.35 ERA) will throw the first game for the Drive. 

Salem at Hill City will also play a Friday doubleheader, kicking off at 4:00. Leighton Finley (2-1, 4.05) gets the ball in game one for the RidgeYaks. 

The Kansas City Royals are in midst of an awful streak, having lost 11 of their last 14 games. During the streak, the main culprit has been the offense, as they’ve scored 3.07 runs per game.

Unfortunately, this inability to score runs is also part of a season-long struggle to put together runs. On the year, they are scoring 3.88 runs per game, which ranks 28th out of the 30 Major League Baseball clubs. It is extremely difficult to consistently win baseball games when you can’t score, which is reflected in the Royals’ record of 20-30.

A particularly frustrating aspect of the Royals offense has been the baserunning. They have the fourth-lowest stolen base success rate in the league. They have made the fourth-most non-stolen base outs in the league. Overall, the Royals make outs on the bases at the third highest rate in the whole league.

On Tuesday, I was covering the game as a credentialed reporter. It was not a good contest, as the Royals were blown out by the Boston Red Sox. And, somewhat unsurprisingly, Kansas City made a pair of outs on the bases and once again struggled to score. At the end of every game, there is a postgame press conference with manager Matt Quatraro down in the media room outside the Royals clubhouse, and the bad offense and odorous baserunning would surely be topics of discussion.

They were. I recorded the interview, and I have some thoughts. Below is a majority of the interview that Q gave. Everything below is in sequential order, but I will note when I skipped a portion of the interview and what was talked about just for context.

After an initial inquiry about the pitching, we get to the first question about the offense.

Anne Rogers, MLB.com: Offensively you get the run in the first, but what kind of adjustments did they make with Suarez and then the bullpen shut you guys down later?

Quatraro: I thought our bats against Suarez were good. I mean, he was at 70-something pitches after four innings. I mean, the guys didn’t expand with him. They laid off some tough pitches. Obviously he puts the ball on the ground. That’s what he does really well. But as far as the competitiveness of those at bats and what the guys got him out of there in the fifth inning, it was working pretty good.

Immediately afterwards, we get into a lengthy discussion about baserunning:

Jaylon Thompson, Kansas City Star: Can you take us through just some of the base running today, particularly Maikel Garcia in the fifth inning and then Lane Thomas later in the game? 

Quatraro: Yeah. Well, I mean, start with Lane in the first inning, the hustle double getting to second base, setting up a second and third situation there. So that was a positive from him going hard out of the box. He’s got a green light to steal and in a situation where obviously we’re struggling to score runs, that’s a split second from being him standing up on third. The guy held the ball a split second longer and got us. So that was a tough break there. And Maikel reads the high throw out of the guy’s hand, he launched the throw and the catcher did a good job of throwing him out at second.

Rogers: Just to be clear, you do like that aggressiveness from Garcia going to second?

Quatraro: Yeah. When you read a throw like that, I mean that’s what everybody’s taught to do. You read that throw launch out of his hand like that, you go.

Rogers: I think metrically that you guys grade out pretty well baserunning this year in terms of extra bases taken and some of the stolen bases, but do you feel like those, I don’t know if you’d call those two mistakes tonight. Do you feel like they’re magnified more when you’re not scoring?

Quatraro: Sure. And at the same time you have to try to create some things when you’re struggling to score a run. So with every opportunity there’s also a chance to be thrown out and it feels bad when it doesn’t work out. But at the same time, like I said, like you accentuate the one in the first inning if we come through there and put up a crooked number or maybe the game has a totally different complexion. But yeah, I’m not going to sit here and tell you it doesn’t hurt when it doesn’t work out your way. But at the same time, if you’re trying to be aggressive and make some things, create some opportunities for yourselves on the bases, you got to do that.

Kurtis Seaboldt, 810 Sports: From a philosophical standpoint, can you be too aggressive on the base paths? What would that be?

Quatraro: Yeah, sure. I mean, if you’re just running without any regard for the game situation and those kinds of things, but yeah, for sure.

After some questions about the defense, the umpire review, and some more pitching, we got back to the offense.

Rogers: Just offensively, I know you guys are searching for answers searching for consistency. Where do you think that lies in terms of: Is it approach? Is it the mentality? Is it the personnel? I mean, where do you feel like the answer could be?

Quatraro: Well, I don’t know if there’s one answer. I think the mentality is good. I mean these guys are preparing, their execution, thoughts about the game plan and the approach are really solid. They’re competitive. These guys are between every at bat trying to make adjustments. Unfortunately it hasn’t stacked together. For 10 days, two weeks we were trending pretty good there offensively and then this last week’s been rougher and it’s been a grind, but I mean these guys are good players and with the ability to bounce back and that’s what we’re counting on.

Seaboldt: You’re around the major league average in almost every offensive category with the exception of runs scored. Is that a situation where if those other numbers stay there, the runs will eventually come. It really seems like it’s something you really can’t address.

Quatraro: Yeah. I mean I’m glad you brought that up because yeah, we look at that stuff all the time and even the underlying numbers as far as hard hit and those kinds of things, they are there and it’s just a matter of—I hate saying that just because it’s not that easy, but you know, cashing in some of those opportunities, we talk about that a lot in here, right? You got to give yourself the opportunity first and then you have to figure out how to put that best at bat together when you have it.

And finally, not pleased with Quatraro’s answers so far and wanting to push for a real answer, I asked again about the baserunning at the end of the presser.

Matt LaMar, Royals Review: You mentioned the hustle double earlier. A large part of the attitude of the team is aggression, but the Royals are third in the league in total outs on the bases this year. How do you sort of reconcile with ‘we want to be aggressive’ versus ‘we’re making a lot of outs on the base paths when maybe we don’t have to?’

Quatraro: Yeah. I mean, again, I think not all of those are going to be equal, right? Because some of them are talking about stolen base opportunities. Some of them are talking about things like tonight where the aggressiveness is warranted and some of them were much earlier in the season as well. We need to create opportunities. So we have to try to do things like that because we’re not hitting a bunch of homers. Our offense has to be predicated on some of the aggressiveness on the bases and sometimes you’re going to make those outs.

Thoughts on the interview

The Royals have played poorly all year. They are objectively a poor offense and were an objectively a poor offense last year, when their 4.02 runs per game ranked 26th in MLB. They have objectively ran into a high rate of outs on the basepaths. Their run differential lines up with their actual win-loss record. And they’ve done this while the vast majority of the team has stayed healthy.

All of this is important context, because there is a big underlying question here: why are the Royals bad? What is their plan to improve it? And what do they think about all of this? These are, ultimately, the queries that Quatraro—and by extension the front office, who are in lockstep with Quatraro on important decisions—was posed on Tuesday.

And I don’t know about you, but I get a distinct vibe from Q’s answers, and that vibe is “Yeah, bad things are happening to the Royals in these games, but it’ll all turn around eventually.” This is an extraordinarily frustrating position for the team to take because it feels like an abdication of responsibility. Nowhere in the press conference did Quatraro say that something was a mistake or that the Royals players or coaching need to do better.

From a baserunning perspective, this is clearest in his talk of aggression—that the Royals need to be aggressive and that outs on the bases just happen when you’re aggressive. When I specifically mentioned that the Royals have the third most outs made on the bases, Q brushed it off because “not all of those are going to be equal” and “sometimes you’re going to make those outs.” And from a batting perspective, Q lauded the team’s mentality, preparation, and execution.

But something just doesn’t add up. Bad teams don’t become bad on accident, and yet it feels like the Royals aren’t really convinced that they’re even bad at the things they’re bad at. It would be very, very easy for Quatraro to say something like this about the baserunning: “We want to stay aggressive. It’s part of our identity. But we need to be better at execution.” It’s easy to say about the offense: “Our underlying metrics look good, but at some point you have to perform and we didn’t do that.”

There just seems to be a huge disconnect going on between what the Royals see themselves as and what they are. I worry that the organization operates with too much faith in its own process and too much fear in making a change. Would moving Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen into the top four spots in the lineup really move the needle? Maybe, maybe not. Would firing Matt Quatraro or Alec Zumwalt really result in better coaching or preparation? Maybe, maybe not. But you’re rapidly approaching the point where the risk for an awful lot of moves is vastly outweighed by the potential reward, and the worst thing the Royals can do right now is nothing.

Nothing, after all, isn’t working.

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

Get ready for the weekend with a trio of NRFI/YRFI bets for Friday, May 22!

My top MLB picks call for a low-scoring first frame between the Cleveland Guardians and Philadelphia Phillies, with the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels also blanking the first inning to wrap up my betting card.

Best NRFI/YRFI picks today

Pick	Odds
/ - NRFI	-139
/ - NRFI	-121
/ - NRFI	-127

Guardians at Phillies: NRFI (-139)

Cleveland Guardians right-hander Gavin Williams and Philadelphia Phillies ace Cristopher Sanchez have both dazzled in the first inning this season.

Williams has held opposing hitters to a .222 batting average while tossing a scoreless first inning in seven of 10 starts, and it’s been a similar story for Sanchez. The southpaw has pitched a scoreless first in eight of 10 starts with a 2.70 ERA.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSP, CLEG

Mariners at Royals: NRFI (-121)

The Kansas City Royals have scored in the opening inning in just 24% of their games, tied for sixth-lowest in the majors.

Although Seattle Mariners starter Logan Gilbert has been hit for a 1.045 OPS in the first inning, he posted a .645 mark in 2025, making this a great spot for the righty to flip the early script.

Seattle also ranks 29th in wOBA against left-handed starters, and Royals southpaw Noah Cameron has fired a scoreless first inning in six of eight starts.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ROYL, SEAM

Team at Team: Rangers at Angels: NRFI (-127)

While it might be asking a lot to back Los Angeles Angels right-hander Grayson Rodriguez, the Texas Rangers have scored in the first inning at the eighth-lowest rate in baseball this season. Rodriguez also held the Los Angeles Dodgers scoreless in the first inning in his season debut last time out.

Rangers righty Jacob deGrom is also due for some statistical correction in the opening frame. He’s allowed four first-inning home runs with a 1.010 OPS, but considering he’s surrendered just 10 total homers and a .625 OPS overall, those early struggles should start to subside.

• Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ABTV, CW33

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

There’s a potential playoff lookahead as two of the best teams in the National League, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers, begin a three-game weekend series on Friday.

With two effective hurlers on the mound in Justin Wrobleski and Logan Henderson, my Dodgers vs. Brewers predictions envision a low-scoring contest.

Read on for my full analysis and MLB picks for Friday, May 22.

Who will win Dodgers vs Brewers today: Dodgers (-106)

Justin Wrobleski has experienced a breakout start, notching two more wins (6) than any other hurler on the Los Angeles Dodgers, with a single loss to show for it. He carries a 2.49 ERA and 1.03 WHIP while avoiding walks (5.9% BB%) and home runs (0.36 HR/9).

The Milwaukee Brewers have struggled to hit southpaws all season, ranking 26th in wRC+ (78) and 27th in wOBA (.283).

That contrasts greatly with L.A.’s numbers against righties — second in both wRC+ (120) and wOBA (.345) — so the edge goes to the Boys in Blue.

COVERS INTEL:Milwaukee’s struggles against LHP are backed up by their poor batted ball metrics. Its lineup hits soft grounders (first in groundball rate, 26th in hard-hit rate) and rarely goes deep (28th in HR/FB).

Dodgers vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-110)

It’ll be cold (56 degrees) and windy (11 mph blowing in toward first base) day at American Family Field, which already has the sixth-lowest Park Factor (97) of any venue.

That’s pitching weather if I’ve ever seen it, and it’ll benefit two effective starters.

Logan Henderson is a budding star, notching a 2.49 ERA across his first nine starts. That’s supported by a 114 Pitching+ and a robust 26.5% K-BB% that would rank second among qualified starters.

These are the top two bullpens in FIP this month (Milwaukee 2.36, LA 2.45), and both are well-rested after Thursday’s off day.

Dodgers vs Brewers odds

• Moneyline: Los Angeles -103 | Milwaukee -107
• Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+152) | Milwaukee +1.5 (-168)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-103) | Under 8.5 (-107)

Dodgers vs Brewers trend

The Dodgers have cashed the Under in five of Justin Wrobleski’s seven starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Brewers.

How to watch Dodgers vs Brewers and game info

Dodgers vs Brewers latest injuries

Dodgers vs Brewers weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.