Category: MLB

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Our MLB best bets for May 5 start with another fade of a struggling squad, as well as banking on runs in the Bronx, despite Jacob deGrom taking the mound.

See why our expert MLB picks love the value of these two plays at Polymarket — plus the Tigers, who are also undervalued as well. 

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: TEX/NYY o8.5	+100
Joe Osborne: CHW ML	+104
Neil Parker: CHW/LAA NRFI	-102
Jon Metler: DET ML	-150

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Rangers/Yankees Over 8.5

Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket

The hitting conditions at Yankee Stadium are prime for runs, with 17 mph winds blowing out to left field and THE BAT projecting over 10 runs in this matchup. The fair price on Over 8.5 sits around -130. Jacob deGrom is always a concern, but he’s still working on a ~90-pitch leash, and the New York Yankees just saw him on April 28. On the other side, Elmer Rodriguez had an inefficient outing vs. the Texas Rangers last week — and could be in trouble again, especially with a familiarity edge for hitters on both sides.

Joe Osborne's expert pick: White Sox moneyline

Price: 49¢ (+104) at Polymarket

I don't think the Los Angeles Angels should be favored over anyone right now. After a promising start to the season, they've lost 13 of their last 15 games! Over the last two weeks, LA ranks 25th in OPS and 27th in bullpen ERA, while the Chicago White Sox sit in the top eight in both categories and have the edge on the mound tonight. Erick Fedde has been solid with a 3.24 ERA, while the Angels turn to youngster Sam Aldegheri, who's been rocked for a 7.77 ERA in AAA this season — and a 6.35 ERA in limited MLB action across the last three years.

Neil Parker's expert pick: White Sox/Angels NRFI

Price: 51¢ (-102) at Polymarket

White Sox starter Erick Fedde has held opposing hitters to a minuscule .385 OPS in the opening frame and pitched a scoreless first in three of his four starts, including last time out against these Angels. Los Angeles counters with lefty Sam Aldegheri, and he’ll have the benefit of the Chicago lineup seeing him for the first time. So, while Aldegheri’s MLB and Triple A numbers are nothing to write home about, the Pale Hose sport a .231 batting average in the first frame and score in the first inning at a league-average 28.57% rate.

Jon Metler's expert pick: Tigers moneyline

Price: 60¢ (-150) at Polymarket

Losing Tarik Skubal for months was a tough blow for the Detroit Tigers, but this is exactly why they brought in Framber Valdez — to stabilize the rotation — and his opportunity to step in as the ace begins tonight against the Boston Red Sox. The Tigers are trading at 60 cents, while I make them closer to 64 cents, leaving a clear edge. Brayan Bello will do the bulk of the pitching for Boston, and he’s struggled badly against left-handed hitters this season, allowing a .414 average and a 1.313 OPS. That’s a major concern against a Tigers lineup loaded with left-handed bats like Kevin McGonigle, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Colt Keith. Boston will try to offset that with left-hander Jovani Moran as an opener, but that wrinkle is already baked into the projection.

More MLB best bets for today

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The AL Cy Young award betting market was reshaped once again by Monday’s news of Detroit Tigers ace pitcher Tarik Skubal needing elbow surgery.  

Key Takeaways

• Skubal was a +250 favorite last week and is now off the board. 
  
  
• There is no timetable yet for his return from elbow surgery. 
  
  
• Yankees pitcher Cam Schlittler is now the market’s favorite at +200.

Not only are all three 2025 top vote getters (Skubal, Garrett Crochet, and Hunter Brown) currently on the injured list, but Skubal and Crochet were co-favorites at +350 to win the award when BetMGM opened its market earlier this year. 

The Tigers today placed LHP Tarik Skubal on the 15-day injured list (retroactive to May 1) with loose bodies in his left elbow. RHP Ty Madden (#36) has been recalled from Triple-A Toledo.

— Tigers PR (@DetroitTigersPR) May 4, 2026

Skubal, who won the award last year, got as short as +175 after the first week of the regular season and was the +250 favorite heading into this week in the Cy Young odds. 

By Monday afternoon, Skubal was off the board at BetMGM. There is no timetable yet for the return of the fiery left-hander, who is having loose bodies removed from his elbow. 

New favorite

New York Yankees hurler Cam Schlittler was installed as the new AL Cy Young award favorite on Monday afternoon and was as low as +200 on Tuesday morning. Teammate Max Fried was listed second with odds of +350, Toronto’s Dylan Cease was placed fourth at +500, while Los Angeles Angels ace Jose Soriano was fifth at +550. 

Odds spiked to +1,200 on Texas Rangers starter Jacob deGrom. 

Crochet had fallen to over +6,000 before he was sidelined with shoulder inflammation, and he is not currently listed on BetMGM’s board. The Red Sox expect Crochet back this month. 

Brown, who could return to the Astros in June, has massive odds of +20,000 to win the Cy Young. 

Moving on up

The week before Skubal went on the IL, he led BetMGM’s AL Cy Young award market with 9.8% of the tickets. Skubal was second in handle (11.8%) behind Soriano’s 14.5% of the money. 

Schlittler has seen his odds shorten quickly over the last few weeks. He opened at +10,000 and was down to +3,000 when the season began. A hot start got Schlittler down to +450 last week, tying him for second on the odds list with Soriano. 

Schlittler has a 5-1 record and leads the AL with a 1.52 ERA. He’s tied for third in the AL in strikeouts (53) and has allowed just one home run over eight starts. 

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The automated ball and strike system is here to stay, and we’ve already seen its impact around baseball. It seems that the general consensus between players, fans, and media after one month of the new system is that it’s a welcome improvement that also adds a bit of a new strategy wrinkle to games. So, let’s take this opportunity to see how the Phillies have utilized their ABS challenges and how successful they’ve been after the month of April.

As a team, the Phillies are near the bottom of the league in total number of challenges issued, with their 59 challenges entering play on Monday ranking 25th in baseball. They’ve been correct in their challenge 51% of the time, putting them at 21st in baseball. For comparison, the Minnesota Twins have issued the most challenges with 97 but they’ve only been correct 54% of the time, putting them 13th in accuracy. Meanwhile the Arizona Diamondbacks have been the most accurate in their challenges, as they were correct 64% of the time despite ranking 28th in total challenges issued.

As may have been expected, J.T. Realmuto has been one of the best at challenging pitches as a catcher. He’s done it seven times and has been correct six times. It’s a small sample as Realmuto has just returned from the injured list, but his 86% success rate has him tied for fifth best among catchers who have issued at least five challenges so far. However, the Phillies other two catchers have not had the same amount of success. Garrett Stubbs has only issued two challenges, getting one right and one wrong. Rafael Marchán meanwhile has challenged 16 pitches in his 16 games in the majors this year and has a 50%-win rate. That half and half win percentage ties Marchán for the ninth worst rate among all catchers who have issued at least 15 challenges.

An early trend league wide is that many teams are not allowing their pitchers to challenge pitches. It’s a logical position, as pitchers could be too emotional or not in a good position to actually see where the pitch ended up. However, the Phillies are one team that has allowed their pitches to challenge, and Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo are among the league leaders in challenges issued. Of course, the league lead is only three challenges held by old friend Gregory Soto. Nevertheless, Sánchez and Luzardo have both challenged two pitches with the former being 0-2 and the latter being 1-1. Zach Pop was the first and only other Phillies pitcher to challenge this year and he was unsuccessful on one attempt.

Phillies hitters have issued 29 challenges, placing them 19th among all teams. Their 48%-win rate is among the top half of the league though, ranking 12th best. Kyle Schwarber has issued the most challenges as a hitter for the Phillies with 8 which also puts him in an eight-way tie for the fifth most among all hitters league wide. Schwarber has won five challenges and lost three, giving him a success rate of 63% that is 12th best among all hitters who have issued at least five challenges. He’s also the only Phillies hitter to attempt a challenge more than three times, with Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Justin Crawford all tied for second place. Bohm has been the most successful of that group, going 2-3 while Harper and Turner are both 1-3. Crawford so far is 0-3 and is the only Phillies to have issued more than one challenge that has not been correct yet, an interesting early development considering Crawford played with the ABS all of last season in Triple-A. He wasn’t particularly good at it there either though, as Crawford went 3-10 on challenges in 2025.

These are just some of the early trends through one month of the ABS system. It will be fascinating to see if teams and players adjust their strategies as everyone around Major League Baseball gets more comfortable with the idea of being able to challenge balls and strikes.

Much has been made about the fact that the Red Sox lineup was essentially constructed around the belief that Roman Anthony, despite not yet hitting his 22nd birthday, would perform like one of the best hitters in the game this year. Suffice it to say, that hasn’t happened yet. Anthony is slashing just .229/.354/.321 (though the underlying metrics suggest he hasn’t been nearly that bad) and the lineup’s been struggling to score with him at the top of it. But now, for a few days at least, it will need to find a way to score without him at all. Anthony has flown back to Boston to see a specialist after leaving last night’s game with right wrist discomfort. X-rays conducted in Detroit last night were negative, which is certainly great to hear, but the Sox can’t afford to take any chances. (Ian Browne, MLB.com)

That’s not the only injury the Sox are monitoring right now. Lefty reliever Danny Coulombe has been placed on the 15-day IL with cervical spasms, and he has absolutely no idea how he got them. “Old age?” Coulombe guessed. “I think when you sleep on a lot of different pillows, sometimes you just tweak things. I don’t have anything else.” (Peter Abraham, Boston Globe)

Brayan Bello is not injured; he’s just been terrible. In an attempt to help him fight his way out of his funk, Bello will not start tonight’s game, but will instead follow Jovani Moran as an opener. (Peter Abraham, Boston Globe)

So how are things going with the starters who are injured? Everything went swimmingly when Sonny Gray threw a bullpen over the weekend, and he is expected to be activated and start tomorrow night’s game against the Tigers. Ranger Suarez, meanwhile, feels good after being forced out of a recent game due to hamstring tightness, while Garrett Crochet is playing catch to rebuild arm strength after going on the IL with shoulder inflammation. (Chris Cotillo, MassLive)

Interim manager Chad Tracy isn’t going to have much success without health from his big arms, no matter what changes he implements. But here’s an early look at some of those changes anyway, with the most impactful one being that he’s dealing with the outfield logjam by keeping Masataka Yoshida on the bench to use as a pinch-hitter. (Jen McCaffrey, The Athletic)

Tracy’s reasoning for benching Yoshida is based on the fact that the three other outfield/DH options have better all-around skill sets and provide more ways to win. Jarren Duran’s home run last night was the key hit in the game and a reminder of just how much he can help the Sox win when he’s firing. (WEEI)

Holy cow. 42 years of watching baseball prepares you for so many things. So many days, you “feel” what is going to happen next. Obviously, I liked this matchup on paper for this game. Chase Petty has a pretty decent pedigree, but he hadn’t yet established himself at the major league level. I doubt any memoirs will be written about his first 2026 start, 5.2 innings and three runs allowed. But against a Cub offense that has been terrific, four hits and two walks in just shy of six innings is a good outcome. Cub starter Edward Cabrera bested him by just one out. But he allowed the same three runs and two walks. But his outing came with nine hits. The Reds had constant traffic and save for one inning, Petty was real effective.

So it was that as this one got into the late innings and after Ben Brown yielded a run in the eighth, this one felt like it might be a loss. But then, that pesky Cub offense loaded the bases in the eighth. Maybe. Maybe they could at least tie it. But when they left the bases loaded, you could feel it deflate. And why not, really? The Reds had basically an 84 percent chance to win after the eighth inning.

I saw Ryan Rolison pitch for the first time. What an impressive performance it was. He faced three batters, struck them all out and then had some serious vibes going as he walked off the field. It will be so easy to do, but we shouldn’t overlook how important it is to go lock it down in that spot. It changes the whole energy of the inning if that is a two run (or more) deficit in the bottom of the ninth. Still, this Reds team is in contention through this point in the season, basically because they’ve won literally every close game that they have played. This was a tall task. Even after Rolison froze that lead at one, the Cubs still had only a 19.5 percent chance of winning heading to the bottom of the ninth.

The data I saw said that the ball Pete Crow-Armstrong hit to start the ninth inning would have been a homer in 17 parks. Credit for Pete for busting it out of the box and getting a relatively easy triple after the ball dropped against the wall. The biggest drama there was him holding on to the base after a full speed slide into third. Additional kudos for Pete coming through after two quick strikes on him. After his triple, the Cubs jumped all of the way up to 58.3 percent chance of winning. That was about as big of a WPA play as we’ve seen. At least for a few more batters.

Then Dansby Swanson struck out. That dropped the Cubs back down to a 40.9 percent chance of winning. Outs are SO valuable. So valuable, in fact, that when Nico Hoerner hit the decently deep fly ball that I’m sure most of us expected, the chance of winning only bounced up to 53.4 percent. A tie game with two outs in the ninth is largely a coin flip.

You had to expect Michael Conforto to get to bat for Matt Shaw in that spot. What I would never have guessed is that Michael Conforto, in what has been a pretty decent career, had never hit a walk-off homer. His 180th career homer isn’t an insane number to never have one. With a career that has seen him go from the Mets to the Giants to the Dodgers (and now the Cubs), it feels like he’s been around some good teams. In a season of amazing things, Michael’s first ever walk-off homer is also his first homer for the Cubs. He crushed it, too. There wasn’t a lot of drama in it getting out. I’m fully aware of the late career bench players the Cubs have had in recent years. I also know that at 32 years old, he wasn’t very valuable for the Dodgers and wasn’t playing by the time they reached the postseason (despite 122 games started for them).

From Cabrera’s quality start, to Seiya Suzuki’s monstrous three-run, game-tying homer, to Rolison’s dominant inning, to PCA’s triple, to Nico’s sacrifice fly to Conforto’s walk-off, this one was thrilling throughout. It feels like the term “playoff baseball” maybe gets thrown around too easily. But, this felt like a big game for May 4. Every one of those contributions I mentioned above and several others that helped set the stage contributed to an exciting and fulfilling game.

Six straight wins. 12 straight wins at home. 16 of 19 overall. This team is blazing hot. In the division that has been the best one in baseball so far, the Cubs are creating a little space in the standings. What a time to be alive!

Three Positives:

• It feels impossible to pick just three. Conforto has to get this top spot for the game winner. Great moment for him. Great moment for the team.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong started the rally with his triple and then scored. The OPS trickles up to .667.
• Seiya Suzuki for the giant three-run homer. He had a single and a walk as well. It isn’t often that a three-run, game-tying homer while down three gets upstaged by not one but two other high value plays.

The Cubs ended up with six hits and six walks. That’s a pretty good performance by the Reds pitching staff.

Game 35, May 4: Cubs 5, Reds 4 (23-12)

WPA Graph

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Michael Conforto (.466). 1-1, HR, RBI, R
• 3rd largest WPA score of the year. Conforto also has the 2nd highest (4/19 against the Mets)
• Hero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.29). 1-4, 3B, R
• Sidekick: Seiya Suzuki (.26). 2-3, HR, BB, 3 RBI, R

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.27). 0-4
• Goat: Ben Brown (-.20). IP, 5 BF, H, BB, ER, K
• Kid: Carson Kelly (-.17). 0-3, BB

WPA Play of the Game: Michael Conforto’s walk-off, game-winning homer. (.466)

*Reds Play of the Game: Ke’Bryan Hayes hir a two-out, two-run home in the second gave the Reds a three-run lead. (.199)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 34 Winner: Michael Bush received 43% of the votes (94 votes)

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 3/Bottom 3)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Michael Conforto +10
• Nico Hoerner +9.5
• Shōta Imanaga +7
• Pete Crow-Armstrong/Caleb Thielbar/Phil Maton/Jacob Webb -6
• Matt Shaw -9
• Seiya Suzuki -11

Current Win Pace: 106.45

Up Next: Game two of the four-game set between these two teams. Jameson Taillon (2-1, 4.41, 34.2 IP) makes his seventh start of the season. Last time he allowed three runs over seven innings of work, allowing only three hits and one walk at San Diego. The Reds start 26-year-old Andrew Abbott (1-2, 5.97, 34.2 IP) who will be making his eighth start of the season. Abbott was the second round pick of the Reds in 2021 (53rd overall). The Cubs are only 5-5 when the other team starts a lefty but 18-7 when they start a righty.

Bringing back a discussion that ran through much of last season, the Cubs actually have a pretty considerable lead on best OPS versus lefties at .830. They have an .037 lead on the Dodgers. That same gap again would drop down to ninth. So the Cubs have separated from the pack that way. They are .056 behind the Braves against righties (.761). This same exact phenomenon existed all of last year. The Cubs hit lefties well, but don’t end up winning for whatever variety of reasons.

13 in a row at home would be an amazing feat. I don’t know about you, but I’m just fine if they want to keep on going.

Go Cubs!

A.J. Ewing

Week: 6 G, 26 AB, .500/.560/.636, 11 H, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 4/4 SB (Triple-A)

2026 Season: 18 G, 81 AB, .349/.481/.571, 22 H, 6 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 17 BB, 15 K, 12/13 SB, .426 BABIP (Double-A) / 6 G, 26 AB, .500/.560/.636, 11 H, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 4/4 SB, .550 BABIP (Triple-A)

Another week in the books, another week A.J. Ewing is our Player of the Week. That’s three total weeks now, and his second in a row. This is Ewing’s first week in Triple-A, however, and the infielder/outfielder didn’t miss a beat upon being promoted.

Now that he is in Triple-A, we have some concrete statcast data. Rather than the first-hand and secondary hand anecdotal evidence such as “he hits the ball hard”, based on the eye and ear test, we can say that so far, Ewing is averaging a 92.4 MPH exit velocity in 20 batted ball events, with a high-water mark of 108.8 MPH and an average launch angle of 12-degrees. Roughly one third of his batted ball events have resulted in the ball being put in play with an exit velocity above 100 MPH and exactly half of them have resulted in the ball being put in play with an exit velocity over 95 MPH.

Ewing has almost reversed his batted ball data in the week he’s been in Syracuse, running a 29.4% line drive rate, 35.3% groundball rate, and a 35.3% flyball rate while logging 23.5% of his hits to his pull side, 29.4% of his hits up the middle, and 47.1% of his hits to the opposite field. Compare to his time in Binghamton earlier in April, where he had a 22.4% line drive rate, 55.1% groundball rate, and a 22.4% flyball rate while logging 46.9% of his hits to his pull side, 28.6% of his hits up the middle, and 24.5% to the opposite field. Since both are small sample sizes that are diametrically opposite of each other, looking to the totality of his 2025 at the Single-A, High-A, and Double-A levels to try to gauge which Ewing is more likely to be the real Ewing when the samples become large enough to normalize, I would say that his Binghamton numbers are closer to the player he is than his current Syracuse numbers.

In Major League Baseball this season, there are currently only a handful of players who have similar batted ball profiles to Ewing, with line drive rates around 25%, groundball rates around 50%, and flyball rates around 25% and have been able to maintain a BABIP of .350 or better a month plus into the season: Garrett Mitchell, Chase Meidroth, Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, and Nick Gonzalez. All of those players currently range from just about average to well above-average. That puts Ewing in good company, but I highlight this more to show that there are very few players who have such a batted ball profile in the first place. By hitting the ball on the ground less, and increasing his line drive rate and/or flyball rate, he widen the tightrope that he has to establish himself as a viable major league caliber player.

Jonah Tong

Week: 1 G (1 GS), 6.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K (Triple-A)

2026 Season: 7 G (7 GS), 31.1 IP, 21 H, 20 R, 16 ER (4.60 ERA), 17 BB, 44 K, .246 BABIP (High-A)

After allowing the first two batters he faced to get on base via a walk and an error, Jonah Tong recorded 16 straight outs before allowing another baserunner, walking a batter and then allowing his first hit of the game in the sixth inning. That’s partially why his season so far is a bit deceptive; Outside of two truly poor outings, Tong hasn’t pitched as poorly as his 5.68 ERA coming into this game or his 4.60 ERA leaving it suggests and it is because of this that I really haven’t been too worried about him.

Overall, Tong has still been stingy allowing hits, and while his walk rate is up- command problems is a known issue with Tong, perhaps exacerbated right now by the Triple-A baseball/environment- his strikeout rate is up even more. With 44 punchouts Tong is tied for the International League lead and leads the Mets minor league system by a considerable margin. In the system, his 6.0 H/9 is also fourth among pitchers who have made at least three starts this season, behind Channing Austin, Nicolas Carreno, and Irving Cota. His LOB% is a poor 60.6%, over 10% lower than the general MLB average of 73%, meaning that Tong is being disproportionately burned by relievers failing to convert outs and strand the runners that he is leaving on base; if you bump his LOB% up by 10%, his ERA drops by two runs to a more palatable looking 4.02 ERA.

Further calming my agita, nothing has obviously backed up when you look at the right-hander’s pitch metrics; all of his pitches still show fringe-average or better.

His four-seam fastball is still a plus pitch, possessing premium mid-90s velocity that he holds deep into games and elite induced vertical break. So far, while the on-the-field results have been strong, he is not getting the same amount of swings-and-misses against it that he did last season, running a 27.9% Whiff% with his fastball, well below the 41.1% Whiff% he posted last season in Triple-A but a bit better than the 22.3% Whiff% he posted at the major league level.

His recently added cutter has similar characteristics, sitting in the low-90s and featuring above-average induced vertical break in addition to its average-for-a-cutter 4.1 inches of glove-side movement, but the results haven’t quite been there yet. Most of the damage batters have done against Tong have come from his cutter- they are hitting .261/.346/.478 against it with very few whiffs, a 24.4% to be exact.

His changeup is still an above-average pitch. Featuring 13.9 inches of arm-side break, average for a Vulcan change- though he throws a unique variant on that changeup variant, a two-seam Vulcan, if you will- Tong’s features almost double the amount of vertical break other Vulcan changeups possess. Combined with the high arm slot that he throws from, and the 1:45 spin axis the pitch is thrown on, and his is not only pick up on out of the hand but possesses true above-average movement to boot. Batters are not hitting it hard, and the pitch has a strong 35.6% Whiff% at present.

His curveball is still an average pitch, sitting in the high-70s and featuring 57.8 inches of vertical drop, making it massive near 12-6 bender. It can sometimes get loopier and lose its bite, but even when it does, Tong is able to command the pitch effectively to have it fall in for strikes or to hit the shadow of the zone, setting up his next pitch in his sequence. Batters are not hitting the pitch hard, and the pitch has a 30.4% Whiff%.

His slider is used extremely sparingly, but still projects to be average offering when he does throw it. With 7.2 inches of glove-side movement and 47 inches of vertical drop on average, the pitch has above-average movement in both regards. His inability to command this pitch in particular detracts from its overall effectiveness, prompting the right-hander to both not throw it much and to throw it for balls when he does.

There is ample evidence to suggest that Tong is going to improve from his middling beginning of the year, and with the weather warming up soon and the right-hander getting more experience in Triple-A under his belt, I would expect him to get out of this funk sooner rather than later.

Players of the Week 2026

Week One/Two (March 27-April 5): Hayden Senger/Cam Tilly

Week Three (April 7-April 12): A.J. Ewing/Christian Scott

Week Four (April 14-April 18): Randy Guzman/Jose Chirinos

Week Five (April 21-April 26): A.J. Ewing/Channing Austin

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The Milwaukee Brewers dropped the series opener to the St. Louis Cardinals 6-3 at Busch Stadium.

My Brewers vs. Cardinals predictionssee the road team flipping the script, facing a pitcher they’ve enjoyed plenty of success against.

Let’s dive deeper into my daily MLB picks for Tuesday, May 5.

Who will win Brewers vs Cardinals today: Brewers moneyline (-110)

Brandon Sproat’s xFIP and SIERA are two full runs less than his ERA, suggesting he hasn’t pitched as poorly as it appears on the surface.

He has also improved as the season progressed. Sproat pitched more than 16 innings over his last three starts, allowing four, four, and six hits, respectively. 

If he can keep the ball in the park, the Milwaukee Brewers will be in good shape. 

Andre Pallante has posted some concerning numbers against lefties (47.2% hard-hit rate, 13.2% barrel rate), and the Brewers have plenty of good ones in their lineup.

COVERS INTEL: Pallante has allowed 17 runs over his last four starts against Milwaukee.

Brewers vs Cardinals Over/Under pick: Under 8.0 (-120)

Sproat has done a better job of limiting baserunners of late. Untimely homers have led to bigger run totals, which is less of a concern in 50F weather, where the winds will be blowing in.

If Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and is tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.

Colder weather and Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the St. Louis Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.

Brewers vs Cardinals odds

• Moneyline: Brewers -110 | Cardinals -110
• Run line: Brewers -1.5 (+160) | Cardinals +1.5 (-190)
• Over/Under: Over 8 (+100) | Under 8 (-120)

Brewers vs Cardinals trend

The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 25 away games (+5.25 Units / 19% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Cardinals.

How to watch Brewers vs Cardinals and game info

Brewers vs Cardinals latest injuries

Brewers vs Cardinals weather

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It’s Shohei Ohtani Day at Daikin Park as the Los Angeles Dodgers face the Houston Astros on May 5. 

My Dodgers vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks expect Los Angeles to come away with the win in what will be a low-scoring affair.

Who will win Dodgers vs Astros today: Dodgers (-225)

Shohei Ohtani is an early leader for the Cy Young, allowing just two earned runs over his first 30 frames. 

He gives the Los Angeles Dodgers a substantial starting pitching edge over the Houston Astros. Although Peter Lambert has been effective (3.52 ERA), he’ll likely regress toward his 6.12 career ERA given his underwhelming stuff (93 Stuff+).

When it gets to the bullpen, Houston has a league-worst 6.22 ERA in relief. The arms are taxed after essentially throwing two consecutive bullpen games, making this a tough spot.

COVERS INTEL: Houston thrives by hitting for average (.284), but it’ll be difficult to string together hits against Ohtani and his .183 xBA. 

Dodgers vs Astros Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-115)

The Under has hit in four of the five games Ohtani has started, and I’m going to keep riding that trend until it stops reaping profit. 

It works twofold. On the mound, he’s arguably been the sport’s best starting pitcher, suppressing runs at an elite rate. Since Dave Roberts has been removing Ohtani from the lineup on days he starts lately, it deprives the Boys in Blue of their best hitter. 

L.A. has been slumping at the plate lately, averaging 3.2 runs across its last six games. Without Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Tommy Edman in the lineup, this may not be a “blow-up” offensive spot but more of a low-scoring win instead.

Dodgers vs Astros odds

• Moneyline: Dodgers -220 | Astros +212
• Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (-130) | Astros +1.5 (+110)
• Over/Under: Over  8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)

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The Dodgers have hit the Under in five of their last seven away games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Astros.

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Brock Stewart rejoined the Dodgers in Houston after his three weeks on a minor league rehab assignment. He did not get activated Monday, after pitching on Sunday for Triple-A Oklahoma City, but will likely end his injured-list stint at some point during this series against the Astros.

That means one pitcher will be optioned to the minors to make room on the active roster for Stewart.

Going by the “last in, first out” method, left-hander Jake Eder would be the one on the way out. Eder joined the team on April 20 when closer Edwin Díaz was placed on the injured list. Eder has been fine, allowing one run in his four innings, but he’s appeared at the end of lopsided games, entering while ahead by 10 runs, up eight, down two, and down three runs. His average leverage index is lowest among all Dodgers pitchers in 2026, save for the lone mound appearance by position player Miguel Rojas.

Kyle Hurt began the season in the minors and joined Los Angeles on April 13, when Ben Casparius was placed on the injured list. He’s excelled since, with 11 strikeouts and only one walk in eight innings in his eight appearances, with one run allowed, though he’s pitched in nearly as low-leverage situations on average as Eder.

Edgardo Henriquez has been active all season. After entering in a tie game on March 27 in his first appearance of the season, he’s either come into games when the Dodgers were trailing or up by five or more runs. He has 10 strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings in his 11 games, but also a 5.23 ERA and 4.04 xERA and six walks.

Today’s question is who do you think will get optioned once Brock Stewart is activated?

Liverpool principal owner John Henry has insisted Fenway Sports Group "don't settle for mediocrity" amid disappointing performances from its two biggest assets; the Boston Red Sox and the Premier League holders.

Henry was responding to his sacking of the long-serving Red Sox manager Alex Cora in April after the team won just 10 of their first games of their Major League Baseball campaign.

After Sunday's defeat by rivals Manchester United, Liverpool have now lost 18 times in all competitions - their most in a single campaign since suffering the same amount under Brendan Rodgers in 2014-15.

In an email to the Sports Business Journal, Henry referenced an incident when fans criticised the ownership recently, while emphasising the need for hard work in order to turn fortunes around.

"Fans get frustrated. The Sox looked terrible for (their) first 25 games," he wrote.

"I remember a plane flying overhead when we were beating Manchester United 7-0 that read 'FSG OUT!'.

"It doesn't mean you ignore them, it means you work harder – you don't settle for mediocrity. You have to win."

Some Liverpool fans have recently been protesting against planned ticket price increases over the next three years, while some supporters have called for Arne Slot to become the first Reds title-winning boss to be sacked the following year.

This Week in the Minors is our weekly look at notable performances from all over the system, from big-name prospects and less-heralded guys alike. The mission is to answer this simple question: “Who had a good week?”

Triple-A Omaha Storm Chasers (14-18, 7.5 games back)

It was another rough week for the Storm Chasers; they lost 4 of 6 at home to the Louisville Bats. We will start on the mound, Stephen Kolek went 4.1 innings, allowing 8 hits, 3 runs, 1 of those being earned, while striking out 4. Kolek is going to start the game tonight for Noah Cameron, who has lower back tightness. In total on his rehab assignments, Kolek made 4 starts, totaling 16.1 innings, giving up 19 hits, 7 runs, 5 earned, walking 4 and striking out 14.

Bailey Falter gave up a run in 2.1 innings. Steven Cruz continues to struggle; he gave up five runs in 3 innings. Helcris Olivarez and Ethan Bosacker each had multiple scoreless appearances.

Carlos Estevez is expected to begin his rehab assignment with the club tomorrow, so that’ll be something to monitor.

At the dish, John Rave was 8—for-23 with a pair of homers. Abraham Toro was 6-for-21 with a pair of homers. Luke Maile, who just got transferred to Omaha was 1-9 at the plate. Luca Tresh however was 10-for-20 with a homer, four doubles and nine runs batted in. Tresh is a 26-year-old catcher who the Royals drafted in the 17th round in 2021.

The Storm Chasers hit the road to take on the Indianapolis Indians. The series runs Tuesday through Sunday.

Here are the Storm Chasers players of the month for April.

Northwest Arkansas Naturals (15-12, 3 games back)

The Naturals had a great week, taking 5 of 6 from the Springfield Cardinals. At the plate, Carson Roccaforte was 7-for-21 with a homer. On the season, Roccaforte is hitting .260, with 6 homers and 8 stolen bases. Local product Spencer Nivens out of Columbia, Missouri and Missouri State in 2023 went 4-for-11 at the plate. Nivens just returned from the IL after beginning the season on there. He is someone to keep an eye on.

On the mound, Drew Beam threw 6 innings of 2 hit ball, allowing just 1 run. It’s the second straight good start in Double-A for Beam, who got the early season promotion, and then struggled to find his footing. Henry Williams threw 6 innings of 2 run ball on 6 hits in his one start. Felix Arronde, a 23-year-old out of Cuba threw 5 hitless innings in his start. Arronde has steadily worked his way through the system, and is in his first year in Double-A.

The Naturals are on the road in Frisco; the series runs from Tuesday to Sunday.

Here are the Naturals players of the month for April.

Quad Cities River Bandits (14-10, 0.5 game back)

The River Bandits won 4 of 6 from the Timber Rattlers. On the mound, David Shields threw 5 scoreless innings, allowing just 2 hits, while striking out 6. The 19-year-old lefty continues to impress. Kamden Edge threw 2.1 scoreless innings, lowering his season ERA to 2.53 over 10.2 innings of work. Edge is a 21-year-old righty out of Northern Oklahoma JC. Edge was drafted by the Royals in the 20th round last season.

At the plate, Blake Mitchell was 5-for-16 at the plate with a homer, he also struck out 6 times but walked 1o times in the series. Mitchell continues to have a fascinating season, with three true outcomes, homer, walk or strikeout. Austin Charles continues to have a fantastic season. The 22-year-old shortstop is hitting .364 on the season with three homers and 8 stolen bases. Charles was 7-22 in the series.

The River Bandits are home this week for Cedar Rapids. The series starts Tuesday and runs through Sunday.

Here are the River Bandits players of the month for April.

Columbia Fireflies (13-14, 4 games back)

The Fireflies dropped 4 of 6 to the Pelicans in Myrtle Beach. At the plate, Josh Hammond was 5-22 with 3 doubles. The 19-year-old is hitting .298 on the season, with 2 homers and 5 stolen bases. Roni Cabrera was 4-for-17, and is hitting .261 on the season. The Fireflies have a good batch of talented hitters, but former first-round pick Sean Gamble has yet to get going.

On the bump, Kendry Chourio made another start, after some concern from him not making an appearance last week. He went 3.2 innings allowing 1 run on 3 hits, while striking out 4. Chourio’s season ERA is now at 1.65 through 16.1 innings. Jordan Woods is off to a great start. The 22-year-old lefty from Canada has a 2.25 ERA through 20 innings, while striking out 29 batters. He has made a couple starts and came out of the bullpen, even getting a save. He has been the Swiss army knife of the pitching staff.

The Fireflies are on the road this week to take on the Kannapolis Cannon Ballers, the series runs Tuesday through Sunday.

Here are the Fireflies players of the month for April.

Astros fans, how are we feeling about Bryan Abreu after this past weekend?

It’s been a rocky start to the season for a pitcher who entered the year with sky-high expectations. Tasked with stepping into a more prominent late-inning role while ace reliever Josh Hader works his way back from injury, Abreu has struggled to find consistency. Instead of being the shutdown arm fans have come to trust, he has too often looked like a fire starter, unable to hold leads, keep runners off base, or slam the door when it matters most.

What’s made his early-season performance even more frustrating is how uncharacteristic it has been. Abreu has built a reputation as a dependable, high-leverage arm, but lately he’s been allowing too many baserunners, both via hits and walks, and, more often than not, those runners have come around to score. On top of all that, his velocity has been down a few miles per hour.

This weekend, however, offered a glimpse of hope.

Abreu delivered two innings of much-needed relief, including a strong eighth inning that resembled the pitcher Astros fans have grown accustomed to. But the ninth inning told a different story. What should have been a clean finish quickly turned into a nerve-wracking escape act. Whether you call it luck or skill, the ground-ball double play that ended the game and secured the save came at a moment when it felt like things were about to unravel once again.

If the outing had ended after the eighth, the takeaway would have been overwhelmingly positive. Instead, the ninth inning left room for continued concern. For now, it’s a reminder that while progress may be underway, trust still needs to be rebuilt.

The bigger picture for Houston only raises the stakes.

If both Abreu and Hader can return to form, it would provide a massive boost to a bullpen that has been overworked and underwhelming. The Astros’ pitching staff as a whole has struggled this season, and their issues with control, evident in a troubling rate of walks, have only compounded the problem. That’s put added pressure on a team whose offense ranks among the top in the American League, but can’t carry the load alone.

There are also financial implications looming. With Abreu approaching a contract year, his performance down the stretch could significantly impact his market value. The Astros, meanwhile, must be cautious about committing long-term money to relievers, a lesson learned the hard way in the past.

Still, there were encouraging signs in his outing against Boston. His velocity ticked up slightly after being down for much of the season, and his slider showed improved location, key factors in limiting hard contact and keeping the ball in the park.

For now, Astros fans will take any step forward they can get. A save is a save, and a win is a win. But until Abreu strings together consistent, clean outings in high-leverage situations, questions about his role, and the bullpen as a whole, will continue to linger.

Monday was a sad day in Yankees universe, as we learned about the passing of the beloved, legendary radio announcer John Sterling. The Yankees honored Sterling in a way he would have loved — with their performance in a 12-1 rout of the Orioles to cap off a four-game sweep of their division foes.

Now that we are almost a week into May (yikes!) we’ve rearranged our coverage to reflect the risers and fallers in the AL. Gone are the last place Astros while the similarly bottom-dwelling Red Sox have been demoted from the main games into our “other games” section, the second-place Rays taking their spot alongside the Blue Jays.

Tampa Bay Rays (22-12) 5, Toronto Blue Jays (16-19) 1

The 35-year-old journeyman swingman Nick Martinez is quite well traveled in his baseball career, plying his trade for the Rangers, Padres, and Reds sandwiched a round a four-year stint overseas in NPB. He found a new home with the Rays this past winter, inking a one-year, $13 million deal, and has quietly been one of the best starters in the league. This was his seventh start of the year and he has yet to give up more than two runs in any of them. His five innings of one-run ball position his season ERA at a sterling 1.71 — sixth-best among all starters in MLB.

Toronto’s only run came on a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RBI single in the third. By that point, the Rays had done most of their damage for the night. Chandler Simpson singled and Junior Caminero walked to lead off the first, setting up a no-doubter three run blast from Ryan Vilade on a first-pitch curveball below the zone from Eric Lauer.

Taylor Walls tacked on a pair of insurance runs in the sixth, his two-out single plating Jonathan Aranda and Ben Williamson after the Rays loaded the bases with three singles. The Blue Jays created plenty of opportunities with ten hits and two walks on the night. However, Martinez and a quintet of Rays relievers stranded a pair in the first, third, and sixth. Things got interesting when Casey Legumina surrendered three singles in the ninth, but Bryan Baker slammed the door as the Jays went 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position and stranded ten runners.

Other Games

Boston Red Sox (14-21) 5, Detroit Tigers (18-18) 4

On the day the Tigers learned that two-time defending AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal requires surgery to remove loose bodies in his left elbow and will miss three months at minimum, the Detroit outfit suffered a back-breaking loss in a game blown by the bullpen. Boston also received bad news on the injury front, Roman Anthony departing the game in the second after injuring his wrist on an awkward check swing.

Forced into an emergency bullpen game with Skubal getting scratched, the Tigers received essentially a Skubal start in the aggregate. Opener Tyler Holton struck out one in a scoreless first, followed by five scoreless innings with seven strikeouts from bulk guy Ty Madden. That allowed their offense to open the scoring with a pair in the sixth on a hit-by-pitch, walk, throwing error on a pickoff attempt, and a throwing error on a routine ground ball.

That would be all for naught, however, as reliever Ricky Vanasco imploded in the seventh. He walked Carlos Narváez and gave up a single to Andruw Monasterio to open the frame, setting up the go-ahead three-run homer from Jarren Duran. A Masataka Yoshida double knocked Vanasco from the game, but the implosion didn’t stop there. Enmanuel De Jesus gave up three straight singles to Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Marcelo Mayer allowing a further pair of runs to score.

Dillon Dingler brought his team to within one with a two-run double in the eighth, but that is where the comeback would end. Payton Tolle collected his first big league win with eight strikeouts across seven innings allowing the pair of unearned runs.

Kansas City Royals (16-19) 6, Cleveland Guardians (18-18) 2

Michael Wacha gave the Royals seven strong innings, the only blemish a David Fry two-run homer in the second. Kansas City scored the next six runs unanswered, Bobby Witt Jr. and Jac Caglianone weighing in with solo homers. Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez contributed RBI knocks while Nick Loftin contributed a two-run single in the Royals’ four-run fourth. With the Guardians loss, there is not a single team in the AL Central with a record better than .500, Cleveland and Detroit tied for first at 18-18.

Seattle Mariners (17-19) 5, Atlanta Braves (25-11) 4

The baseball was uncharacteristically flying out of T-Mobile Park, the two teams scoring all nine of their runs via the long ball. Atlanta jumped out to a 4-0 lead with four solo home runs off Logan Gilbert. The first was by Drake Baldwin to lead off the game, while the final three all came in the sixth inning — all blasts of well over 400 feet from Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson (the 300th of his career), and Austin Riley.

The Mariners immediately picked up their starter, exploding for five runs in the bottom of the sixth. Randy Arozarena and Dominic Canzone drew a pair of walks to lead off, setting up a booming three-run rocket from Luke Raley. Mitch Garver was issued a free pass, and with two outs and a full count, J.P. Crawford smacked the go-ahead two run tank off reliever Tyler Kinley.