Category: MLB

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The St. Louis Cardinals head into tonight's clash with the Cincinnati Reds as a-113 moneyline favorite at Great American Ball Park, with first pitch scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. 

With Kyle Leahy in impressive form, my Cardinals vs. Reds predictions expect St. Louis to come out on top.

Read more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, Aug. 18. 

Who will win Cardinals vs Reds today: Cardinals moneyline (-116)

Kyle Leahy continues to throw the ball well for the St. Louis Cardinals. He owns a 2.55 FIP across his last five starts, allowing just 0.64 BB/9 and 0.94 HR/9 while consistently pounding the strike zone.

He’s also facing a Cincinnati Reds offense in horrible shape. Cincinnati has posted a 64 wRC+ across its last eight games with a .140 ISO.

As for Andrew Abbott, his 4.50 xERA over the last month is manageable, but the lefty has struggled with command, walking 5.14 hitters per nine innings. The Cardinals are also swinging it well with a 105 wRC+ over the last week.

St. Louis has the edge on the mound and at the dish.

Play this pick to -130.

COVERS INTEL: The Cardinals have been slightly better against left-handed pitching, posting a 98 wRC+ compared to a 95 mark vs. right-handers. That gives St. Louis a small matchup boost against Abbott.

Cardinals vs Reds Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-103)

The Under is looking like the play here. Cincinnati is struggling offensively, and Leahy is in strong enough form to take advantage. The Cardinals’ bullpen has also held its own, posting a 4.06 FIP over the last week.

The Cards may be doing more at the plate, but they will have it tough once Abbott departs. Cincinnati’s relief corps is dealing, owning a 3.29 FIP over its last 29 2/3 frames. The Reds have limited the long ball during that span, too.

With Cincinnati’s lineup ice cold and both bullpens capable of limiting damage, this contest should stay relatively low-scoring.

Play this pick to -120.

Cardinals vs Reds home run prediction: Joshua Baez (+442)

Joshua Baez homered three times in his MLB debut, and all of those bombs came off left-hander Matthew Boyd. While the youngster hasn't done much since that contest, the success against lefties is hard to ignore with Abbott taking the hill. 

Also, 58.3% of his contact has been in the air since being promoted to the big leagues, and Baez has a 75% hard-hit rate. Abbott has allowed 1.22 HR/9 to right-handed batters this season, and a 51.5% fly ball rate. 

This matchup is a great chance for Baez to smack No. 4. 

Cardinals vs Reds weather

Weather at Great American Ball Park looks excellent tonight, with clear skies and temperatures falling from 79°F to 72°F through the evening. Winds are extremely light around 1–3 mph, and rain chances sit at 0%. Conditions should be clean and neutral, with no delay concern or major weather impact.

Cardinals vs Reds odds

• Moneyline: Cardinals -113 | Reds +108
• Run line: Cardinals -1.5 (+144) | Reds +1.5 (-150)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-104) | Under 8.5 (-100)

Cardinals vs Reds trend

The Reds have hit the Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+7.10 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Reds.

How to watch Cardinals vs Reds and game info

Cardinals vs Reds latest injuries

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The first-place Milwaukee Brewers are priced as a -150 moneyline favorite tonight against the Seattle Mariners, with first pitch scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET at American Family Field. 

With Kyle Harrison in top form at home this season, my Mariners vs. Brewers predictions are backing him to silence Seattle while getting run support. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, Aug. 18. 

Who will win Mariners vs Brewers today: Brewers moneyline (-155)

The Seattle Mariners send Bryce Miller to the hill, and he is still looking to find his form. The righty owns a 4.45 FIP across his last two starts while giving up 1.64 HR/9, and his monthly FIP sits at 5.71.

The Milwaukee Brewers aren't in great offensive shape, but the Brewers are much better at home with a 111 wRC+, compared to a 95 road mark.

Kyle Harrison has a 4.01 xERA over his last two appearances, but has been a completely different pitcher at American Family Field, posting a 2.14 home FIP compared to a 4.87 mark on the road.

Harrison should bring his best, and Milwaukee can capitalize on Miller’s recent struggles.

Play this pick to -160.

COVERS INTEL: Miller has a 4.66 FIP on the road, compared to a 2.88 mark at T-Mobile Park. That gives Milwaukee's lineup another advantage. 

Mariners vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-112)

This total sits at 7.5, and it's low enough to hammer the Over. Milwaukee’s offense has been cold lately with a 74 wRC+ over its last six games, but theBrewers are much better at home, which gives them a path against a struggling Miller.

Seattle’s offense is also in solid form, posting a 122 wRC+ over the last week. Harrison has been better at American Family Field, but the Mariners are seeing the ball well enough to contribute.

The bullpen edge is not overwhelming either, with Seattle’s relief corps owning a 4.55 FIP over the last two weeks.

Play this pick to -130.

Mariners vs Brewers home run prediction: Jackson Chourio (+474)

Jackson Chourio has gone deep four times in his last 13 contests, and he carries a 60% hard-hit rate and 17.1% barrel rate during that span.

Chourio is always a dangerous hitter, but he's thrived against right-handers. He's hit 12 of his 17 bombs off righties. 

He's clubbed that same number of bombs at home this season, and Miller's HR issues lately are evident. The Mariners' bullpen has also surrendered 1.67 HR/9 across the last two weeks, giving Chourio another path to leaving the yard when Miller departs. 

Mariners vs Brewers weather

Weather at American Family Field looks messy early, with rain chances around 54% at 7 p.m. ET before gradually dropping later in the night. Temperatures sit in the low 70s with moderate winds, but the retractable roof could easily neutralize those conditions.

Mariners vs Brewers odds

• Moneyline: Mariners +144 | Brewers -150
• Run line: Mariners +1.5 (-156) | Brewers -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-108) | Under 7.5 (+104)

Mariners vs Brewers trend

The Mariners have hit the Over in 24 of their last 40 away games (+9.05 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Brewers.

How to watch Mariners vs Brewers and game info

Mariners vs Brewers latest injuries

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With a vulnerable arm on the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Boston Red Sox sit as a heavy -156 moneyline favorite for tonight's clash at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. 

My Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox predictions see no issues with Boston grabbing another convincing victory behind left-hander Ranger Suarez. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, Aug. 18. 

Who will win Diamondbacks vs Red Sox today: Red Sox -1.5 (+129)

The Boston Red Sox should be looking forward to this matchup with Merrill Kelly taking the bump for the Arizona Diamondbacks. He's been very hittable lately, posting a 6.36 FIP over his last two starts while surrendering 1.69 HR/9.

Kelly is also hurting himself with walks, issuing 4.44 BB/9 over the last month.

The Red Sox have cooled off a bit offensively, but they just exploded for 11 runs Monday, and Boston still owns a 125 wRC+ over its previous 15 contests.

Ranger Suarez should provide stability. The left-hander owns a 3.19 FIP at Fenway Park in 2026 and a 3.39 FIP over his previous four appearances.

Boston’s offense can create separation.

Play this pick to +110.

COVERS INTEL: Arizona’s offense has traveled poorly this season, posting an 88 wRC+ on the road compared to a 103 mark at Chase Field. That gives Suarez a cleaner matchup and strengthens Boston’s path to separation at Fenway.

Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-103)

After the Over comfortably hit on Monday, I'm eyeing it again. 

The Red Sox are still smashing baseballs, and Arizona’s bullpen is shaky, which means more runs are possible when Kelly exits. The Diamondbacks’ relief corps has a 5.33 xERA over the last week while allowing 1.40 HR/9.

Boston’s bullpen has been a lot steadier during that span with a 3.17 FIP, but Suarez isn’t untouchable. The Diamondbacks’ offense is also above league average right now, and if the Sox score as much as I expect, Arizona won’t need to chip in much for this contest to cash the Over.

Diamondbacks vs Red Sox home run prediction: Willson Contreras (+474)

Willson Contreras has been showing his power lately. He's gone yard twice in his last six games while posting a .381 ISO during that span. This matchup against Kelly also screams value. 

While it's not a huge sample size, Contreras is 7-for-13 lifetime vs. Kelly with three doubles and a home run. Kelly is having major trouble with the long ball, and the majority of Contreras' homers have been against RHPs.

Kelly has also given up 1.38 HR/9 on the road. 

Play this pick to -130.

Diamondbacks vs Red Sox weather

Weather at Fenway Park looks mild and humid tonight, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures sitting around 73°F at first pitch before dipping to 71°F later. Winds are light around 3–5 mph, and rain chances stay low near 10–13%. Overall, conditions look fairly neutral with no major delay concern.

Diamondbacks vs Red Sox odds

• Moneyline: Diamondbacks +150 | Red Sox -156
• Run line: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-138) | Red Sox -1.5 (+133)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-100) | Under 8.5 (-104)

Diamondbacks vs Red Sox trend

The Red Sox have covered the run line in 30 of their last 50 games (+15.40 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox.

How to watch Diamondbacks vs Red Sox and game info

Diamondbacks vs Red Sox latest injuries

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The Kansas City Royals finally won a road series, and Noah Cameron made sure the finale was memorable with a one-hit complete-game shutout in Anaheim that Jacob Milham and Jeremy Greco treat as the centerpiece of this episode. The Royals had not won a road series in more than two months, making the victory over the Los Angeles Angels feel like a moment for this aimless team to relish in.

Cameron’s recent run of starts allowing one hit or fewer over seven-plus innings belongs in historical context, and the hosts dig into why his slider, changeup, and overall pitch-calling approach suggest something sustainable rather than a hot streak. It is the kind of performance that changes how a sophomore pitcher is evaluated.

The roster continues to shift. Maikel Garcia and Vinnie Pasquantino are both back from rehab, triggering a series of corresponding moves involving Josh Rojas, José Cuas, Starling Marte, and Connor Thomas. The bullpen and rotation picture gets a thorough look as well, with Beck Way’s rehab assignment, Carlos Estévez, Nick Mears, Lucas Erceg, and Daniel Lynch IV all factoring into a conversation about why the organization keeps leaning on veteran depth. Tony Gonsolin’s major league signing adds a high-upside but genuinely uncertain wrinkle to the pitching picture, and Jacob and Jeremy temper their expectations given his extensive injury history.

Beyond the current roster, MLB Pipeline’s updated farm system rankings have the Royals sitting 19th, prompting a discussion of whether the system trends up or down as the organization pushes toward 2027. The reported sale of the San Diego Padres becomes a broader conversation about franchise value and why the Royals should not be treated as a small-market afterthought, while the Kansas City ballpark situation remains messy, with the city’s reported six hundred million dollar offer and its financing structure drawing real criticism over the proposed lease terms.

The episode also remembers Tommy John and his lasting impact on the sport, and looks ahead to the Royals’ appearance in next year’s Field of Dreams game.

Need your Royals fix? Head to royalsreview.com for news, analysis, and to engage with Royals fans around the world! Follow us online:

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– Jeremy Greco: @hokius.fromthehawkseye.com
– Jacob Milham: @jacobmilhkc.bsky.social

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– Podcast: @RoyalRundownPod

It was a bold move by the front office to acquire Luis Arraez at the trade deadline. From an offensive standpoint, he was more or less exactly what they needed: a contact oriented hitter with an acute allergy to striking out, particularly when runners were on base. It has been something that has plagued the offense for years, so adding in someone (and putting them in a run producing spot) has had good results thus far.

However, the biggest issue was always going to be the defense. Arraez’s stated preference to continue playing second base for any team interested in taking him on meant there would be shuffling around the infield for the Phillies. Bryson Stott was going to have to move positions, Alec Bohm was going to have move positions, Bryce Harper was going to have to move positions. It all became something of a logistical nightmare to try and fit all of those players into spots they hadn’t been accustomed to in years, some in multiple years. The assumption was that the defense was going to be an abysmal nightmare of infield butchery and necessary defensive substitution.

While it’s far too early to have any concrete analysis, one can pretty safely say the defense has been….fine.

The ones that we would have expected to be bad (Bohm at first, Harper in right field) have been just that, but the others are simply average, something that the team is probably happy with. Given that what they were working with, these are numbers that they can likely live with.

As I just mentioned, the two that have been the worst according to FRV are Harper and Bohm. Starting with Harper, it has been a period of readjustment to the outfield. Having not played the position since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2022, there has been an element of rustiness to his game as he has been out there. Some catches that probably should have been made haven’t been.

There is probably a certain amount of change Harper has to go through, particularly where his knee is concerned. He has spoken of the soreness he is experiencing in the joint right now, comparing it to spring training and the normal aches and pains that come with playing the position for the first time after a certain amount of time off, so maybe there will be some improvement as the season continues moving towards the end. He’s ranked near the bottom of the league in fielding run value (FRV) since the time of the trade, but it’s still a small sample size so maybe some better health will help that number look a little better.

With someone like Bohm, he is just going to be a bad first baseman.

In his career, he has been below average at the position when given the chance to play there, so they’re likely content to simply continue with that kind of defensive production at first. Besides, Harper was no great shakes there this season anyway.

What’s at least mildly surprising is that Bryson Stott has certainly taken to third base like a duck to water, making routine plays look positively routine while also showing some surprising range.

These are plays that the previous third baseman simply wasn’t going to be making, so it’s nice to have at least basic competency at the position. The athleticism that Stott has probably had much to do with their decision to be fine moving him to the hot corner, thinking he’d be able to make plays like this with mild regularity.

Now, it is foolish to declare this experiment a full blown success based on a little over 100 innings of defense. The sample size for most defensive statistics require a lengthy period of stabilization before we can truly put our trust in them. We would need to see this group together for an entire season, maybe two, before we can say this alignment has been a success. Yet this is what we have, 100 innings to show that maybe this will be fine enough to get through this season. Is there still a rough patch in the future? Possibly. Playing out of position all the time means the ball will probably find someone at the worst possible time.

For now, it’s fine. And that’s about all we can ask for.

Elian Peña

Week: 6 G, 21 AB, .286/.400/.762, 6 H, 1 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 4 BB, 9 K, 1/3 SB (High-A)

2026 Season: 96 G, 365, .271/.388/.397, 99 H, 18 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 61 BB, 94 K, 28/37 SB, .343 BABIP (Single-A)

Back at the beginning of August, when we rolled out the prospect report card for July, I mentioned that I was starting to get a little worried about how passive Elian Peña had become. Now, don’t get me wrong, his 105 wRC+ until that point was great for an 18-year-old in his first go-around in full-season ball in his first year in the United States, but the overall profile left a bit to be desired. Yes, he was walking at an excellent 14% rate, but he was also striking out at a 19.7% rate with lower-than-average Swing%, lower-than-average SwStr%, and higher-than-average CStr%; in other words, it seemed to me based on those stats that Peña was taking a lot of pitches, balls or strikes, and that his slightly above-average offensive contributions weren’t thanks to a preternaturally good eye for a teenager, but rather, passivity at the plate. As highlighted by the concept of SEAGER, there is a difference between good aggression, bad aggression, good passivity, and bad passivity.

One of the things I wanted to see more from Peña going forward was his ability to do damage, even if it resulted in his swing-and-miss rates going up, and related stats like batting average or on-base percentage going down. Peña has done that and then some since the calendar flipped to August. Through 12 games in the month, he is hitting .333/.423/.622 with 4 doubles, 3 home runs, and 7 walks to 18 strikeouts, with one of those doubles and all three of those home runs coming this past week.

Peña’s entire professional resume consists of what he’s done this year and 55 games in the Dominican Summer League last year, so it is pretty light all things considered. With that in mind, he has always shown a solid eye, fair pitch recognition, and demonstrated relatively positive swing decisions at the plate. I don’t want to see Peña change that and become a wild hacker swinging at everything because statistically he is bound to run into a ball here and there, but in order to develop into an effective major leaguer, he will need to hit the ball with more authority. Edgardo Alfonzo was a career .284 hitter who got on base at a career .357 rate. Mike Schmidt was a career .267 hitter who got on base at a career .380 rate. Edgardo Alfonzo is a fan favorite while Mike Schmidt is considered one of the best third basemen ever because he also slugged .527 and had a career 147 wRC+ to Alfonzo’s .425 career slugging percentage and 107 wRC+.

Now that he has been promoted to Brooklyn, it will be an interesting final couple of months for the left-hand hitting shortstop. Since Keyspan/MCU/Maimonides Park opened, it has been a favorable pitcher’s park in general, with flyballs, home runs and left-handed hitters impacted the most by the stadium. As per MLB Rule 2.01, the sight line from home plate to the pitcher’s mound to second base to center field should point due east to avoid the setting sun impacting at-bats. Facing east on Surf Avenue, well, it doesn’t really get more east. The Atlantic Ocean being about 400 feet from center/right field without much obstruction has impacted countless Cyclones home games, with winds swatting down fly balls. Peña has had his most success when pulling and elevating the ball, and his angular bat path is optimized for doing just that.

May the best force win.

Jose Chirinos

Week: 1 G (1 GS), 6.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K (High-A)

2026 Season: 9 G (7 GS), 42.0 IP, 34 H, 16 R, 11 ER (2.36 ERA), 10 BB, 48 K, .295 BABIP (Single-A) / 12 G (12 GS), 59.1 IP, 54 H, 30 R, 27 ER (4.10 ERA), 27 BB, 61 K, .299 BABIP (High-A)

Brooklyn, which has park favors that skew heavily in the favor of pitching, often has a habit of making pitchers look better than they actually are. Beginning with Ross Peeples and his 1.34 ERA in 2001- though with Peeples, bone spurs and Tommy John surgery certainly contributed to his career as a prospect derailing- Keyspan/MCU/Maimonides Park has made its fair share of duds look like studs (no offense to any of those player, of course- I just liked the rhyme).

Jose Chirinos, surprisingly, has had the opposite effect occur. Earlier in the year, in St. Lucie, he looked great. Since his promotion to Brooklyn at the beginning of June, he hasn’t looked all that great. Much of the damage done against the right-hander came in his first bunch of starts, and he’s settled down some since then, but with the totality of everything, he has been more hittable, has been walking more batters, has been getting fewer swings-and-misses, and has been showing batted ball metric data trending in the wrong direction.

I was interested in digging into his numbers and maybe trying to figure out why Chirinos hasn’t exactly been helped by a park that has helped so many other pitchers over the last 25 years look better than they actually are/were. One thing I noticed immediately about Chirinos is that the right-hander has pretty huge platoon splits, with right-handed batters hitting .199/.276/.304 against him in 226 total plate appearances but left-handed batters hitting .274/.350/.503 in 200 total plate appearances. Baseball-Reference unfortunately does not further break down these splits by home and road, but looking at the data, he’s thrown more innings at home than he has on the road (36.2 innings in 7 home starts versus 22.2 innings in 5 away games), so basic logic would suggest that he’s had more matchups against left-handed batters at home than he has against left-handed batters on the road. The fact that Maimonides Park hasn’t helped him against left-handed batters as it has so many other New York-Penn League/South Atlantic League pitchers is a weird peculiarity. The park is usually very tough against them, and yet, of the six home runs Chirinos has allowed at home, four were against left-handed batters.

At the end of the day, based simply on stuff, I don’t see Jose Chirinos having Jacob deGrom upside despite the resemblance, or much of a particularly high upside, in general, but based on 25 seasons of Cyclones baseball, he should arguably be looking more a lot more deGromian.

Players of the Week 2026

Week One/Two (March 27-April 5): Hayden Senger/Cam Tilly

Week Three (April 7-April 12): A.J. Ewing/Christian Scott

Week Four (April 14-April 18): Randy Guzman/Jose Chirinos

Week Five (April 21-April 26): A.J. Ewing/Channing Austin

Week Six (April 30-May 3): A.J. Ewing/Jonah Tong

Week Seven (May 5-May 10): Ryan Clifford/Jonathan Santucci

Week Eight: (May 12-May 17): Jacob Reimer/Zach Thornton

Week Nine: (May 19-May 24): Ryan Clifford/Channing Austin

Week Ten: (May 26-May 31): Ryan Clifford/Jose Chirinos

Week Eleven: (June 2-June 7): Vincent Perozo/Frank Camarillo

Week Twelve: (June 9-June 14): JT Benson/Nick Carreno

Week Thirteen (June 16-June 21): Nick Morabito/Jonathan Santucci

Week Fourteen (June 23-June 28): JT Benson/Daviel Hurtado

Week Fifteen: (June 30-July 5): MJ Melendez/Daviel Hurtado

Week Sixteen: (July 7-July 12): Daiverson Gutierrez/Jonathan Santucci

Week Seventeen (July 13-July 19): MJ Melendez/Noah Hall

Week Eighteen: (July 21-July 26): Ronny Mauricio/Conner Ware

Week Nineteen: (July 28-August 2): Mitch Voit/Jonah Tong

Week Twenty (August 3-August 9): Mitch Voit/Noah Hall

It can be thrown around a bit too often, but that game certainly felt like playoff baseball. You can slice it, dice it, stir it, and shake it, but no matter how you spin it, through four games these White Sox have given the Cubs all they can handle. The games have been old fashioned pier six brawls. The Cubs jumped out early and for three innings this felt like a lovely night at the park. But the Sox added three in the fourth to take the lead. The Cubs got two back in the fifth to retake the lead. But then the Sox got two in the eighth to take it one more time. There was scoring in six of the 10 innings of this game, but in no inning did both teams score.

WPA loves a good momentum swing. So there was WPA flying all over the place in this one. I’ll write more tomorrow about the WPA from this one as the numbers often swing between the time I’m writing about them and the following morning when Al is editing and posting. As I’m writing, there were 11 events that swung the win probability of this game by more than 10 percent (and two more that would round to 10). WPA recorded 90 events in the game, so on 11 percent of the plays in the game, the win probability changed by 10 percent or more. That’s wild. Four of those swings were by 25 percent or more. Nico Hoerner was at the plate for two of those four. And that’s how Nico Hoerner stole a Superhero from the one most of you probably had in your head.

I do this on a daily basis and I know I was thinking of Pete Crow-Armstrong as I was pre-writing in my head. A walk-off homer will overshadow a whole game. A walk-off homer after a first pitch of the game homer? That’s a 70-year occurrence. Well, it’s been that long since it happened. Being fair, it’s more likely to happen going forward than it was going backwards. Power hitters didn’t often lead off until the modern game. The two National League front runners for MVP both lead off for their respective teams that are expected to make deep playoff runs.

In fairness, Pete did generate a lot of WPA. A lead-off homer in a more than 10 percent event (10.1% percent). A walk-off homer is a significant event. It’s crazy that a walk-off homer in extra innings isn’t a bigger event. But, it’s a little less than 20 percent. In part, modern baseball tilts it so much that in extra inning game, if you don’t allow a run in the top of the inning, you have to feel like you are a very good bet to win the game. That’s exactly how WPA sees it. I couldn’t readily find statistics, but a significant majority of games that do go extra innings go exactly one extra inning. The Cubs and Sox each played their 17th extra inning game Monday night. The Sox have gone past 10, doing it recently with the Red Sox(13). Two Cubs game have gone 11. The White Sox have actually had five go more than 10.

The White Sox are experiencing just a few growing pains. They are 7-10 in extra innings, 28-35 on the road and 15-18 against the NL. There’s some randomness in extra innings to be sure. But it helps to have veteran guys who know their role. Jacob Webb will be another unsung hero for the Cubs in this one, gritting through the 10th inning. Winning on the road is tricky too. Winning against the other league has a lot to do with adapting quickly to players you haven’t seen much of. When they figure those things out, that team can be a handful. This is a very good win.

My three stars are going to be exactly the three guys we talked about up here. Pete Crow-Armstrong, good evening and then good night. Nico Hoerner, two momentum swinging hits in one game. A wild two-run single in the fifth turned a one-run deficit into a one-run lead (with a little help from an errant Sox throw). An enormous one-out, RBI single in the ninth to keep the game alive. Jacob Webb picks up a win for surviving the 10th. It’s so hard to avoid a run with the ghost runner. He issued two walks, but got two huge strikeouts and a weak grounder, getting credit essentially for all three outs. As always, in these razor thin margins, just about every positive contribution was absolutely vital to the win. So hat tip to all of the other key contributors. But I do think these three stand a fair bit ahead of the rest.

Game 126, August 17: Cubs 7, White Sox 5 (73-53)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Nico Hoerner (.797). 4-5, 2 RBI
• Hero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.372). 4-5, 2 HR, 2B, BB, 3 RBI, 2 R, SB
• Sidekick: Jacob Webb (.311). IP, 5 BF, 2 BB, 2 K (W 5-2)

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Ryan Zeferjahn (-.422). IP, 6 BF, 2 H, BB, 2 ER, K
• Goat: Carson Kelly (-.232). 1-5, R
• Kid: Michael Busch (-.211). 0-5

WPA Play of the Game: Nico Hoerner’s single with runners on first and second and one out in the ninth, the Cubs down one. He tied the game. (.492)

White Sox Play of the Game: Andrew Benintendi’s two-run homer in the eighth to give the Sox a one-run lead. (.475)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 125 Winner: Pete Crow-Armstrong received 39 of 47 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong +30
• Alex Bregman +19
• Shōta Imanaga +14
• Trent Thornton +13.5
• Carson Kelly +12.5
• Phil Maton -10
• Edward Cabrera -12.5
• Jameson Taillon -13
• Dansby Swanson -17
• Caleb Thielbar -19.5

Scoreboard Watching: Phillies win (five back). Diamondbacks lose (seven back). Padres win (six back). Braves lose (one up). Dodgers win (two up). Brewers were off (4.5 up).

Up Next: Game two of the three-game set with the White Sox. Kevin Gausman (6-11, 4.53) gets another start for the Cubs. He’ll look to bounce back after allowing six runs in 4.2 innings of his last start. I haven’t seen a formal listing of the Sox starter, but Fangraphs suggests Bryan Hudson (3-4, 3.14). Hudson would be an opener. If I look back for the corresponding turn in the rotation, Erick Fedde was the “bulk” guy behind an opener last week for the Sox. Fedde is 6-8 with a 4.51 ERA.

Regardless of how the Sox deploy their pitching, that’s going to look like a win. Fedde never really lived up to the potential associated with a first round pick. Go win another series. This one would be against a very good team. Take advantage of catching them when your rotation is better positioned than theirs.

Over the last few days, the future of the Nats shortstop position has been discussed very heavily following CJ Abrams’ move to second base. For the rest of the season it seems like Nasim Nunez will be the team’s primary shortstop. Honestly, that is not an idea I am thrilled about given Nunez’s lack of production.

Even with Abrams at second base, I believe that the Nats have a better answer at the shortstop position in Seaver King. This weekend when I was in Rochester, King’s bat looked big league ready. However, in Spencer Nusbaum’s recent sourced piece, he theorized that Nunez’s glove could provide more value in each of the next two seasons.

Nunez does have a good glove, but I do not buy the idea of him being an everyday option past this season. The bat is not good enough for Nunez to be an everyday player. On the season, Nunez has a 67 wRC+, meaning he is about 33% worse than even the average hitter. To have that kind of production in the lineup nearly every day, your defense has to be perfect. Nunez has good defense, but he has been pretty mistake prone this season with 13 errors. 

Simply put, the batted ball data is ugly. His 84.9 MPH average exit velocity is lower than Max Scherzer’s in 2021, the last year where pitchers hit. After showing flashes of power at the end of last season, that has totally evaporated in 2026. His .265 slugging percentage is one of the lowest numbers you will ever see. Sure, it is not Nunez’s job to slug, but there also needs to be a certain floor you have to hit.

This season, Nunez is not reaching that offensive floor. His .578 OPS is the worst among all qualified hitters this season. For me, that is a sign that he is being overplayed and his skills are being overextended. Nasim Nunez in small doses can be effective, but it is just not working as an everyday player.

Interestingly, the two WAR models disagree pretty heavily about Nunez. Baseball Reference has Nunez at a 2.1 WAR, which is actually quite solid. However, Fangraphs has him at 0.7 wins above replacement. 

Personally, I think the truth is a lot closer to Fangraphs assessment, but that is up for interpretation. Second base defense has value, but I struggle to see how very good but not quite Gold Glove caliber second base defense and great baserunning get you to 2 WAR with that bat.

I am actually curious to see how Nunez does at shortstop to finish the season. Everyone seems to assume he will be a great defender, but I am not 100% sure. We know Nunez can make exceptional plays like the one he made against the Cubs on Opening Week. However, he has been shaky at short when he has played there.

It has been a small sample size, but Nunez has already made 4 errors at short this year and has -3 outs above average at the position. Once he is playing the position every day, I think those numbers will improve, but the question is how much.

Nunez can’t just be an average defender at short, he needs to be great. His lack of offensive ability gives him very little margin for error on the bases and in the field. Nunez is very good in those two areas, but I would like to see a bit more consistency.

On the bases, it has felt like Nunez has been getting a little sloppy lately. He had an incredible run on the bases to start the year and still leads the majors in steals. However, in the last two months, Nunez has 8 steals but has been caught 4 times. In August, Nunez only has one steal and has been caught twice. With a .368 OPS and .133 average this month, the opportunity just has not been there.

Nunez brings good vibes and has clear athletic ability. I think he has a spot on a big league roster. However, this is just not a player that I value in an everyday role. The only reason I would keep Seaver King down is concern about the looming lockout. If King is on the 40-man, he will not be able to play minor league games next season during a potential lockout.

I do not buy the idea that Nunez can be a long term bridge to Eli Willits though. At the start of next season, the Nats should have King as the starting shortstop with Abrams at second, assuming he is still around. Nunez can be on the bench as a defensive replacement and pinch runner. However, this season has shown us that he is not a viable everyday option.

The Texas Rangers, despite their sub-.500 record, continue to be in the Wild Card race, and are currently tied with Detroit and Baltimore for the third Wild Card spot, as well as being just two games out in the American League West.

In our latest Rangers Reacts Survey, we asked, in a playoff series, who would you want to see as the #3 starter for the Rangers, behind Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi?

(And yes, deGrom left his most recent start with a triceps issue and Eovaldi is on the injured list, but we are assuming both are healthy and are going 1-2 in a playoff series.)

While he’s only been back off the injured list for a short period of time, almost half of you went with Cody Bradford as your pick. MacKenzie Gore got a little over a quarter of the vote, with about one in six of you opting for Jack Leiter.

And I have to say, there was a surprising amount of support for Cal Quantrill…

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The Colorado Rockies have had a miserable time against teams over .500, posting an abysmal 23-50 record.

The Los Angeles Dodgers predictably flexed their muscles in the series opener, and my Dodgers vs. Rockies predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, Aug. 18 are banking on more of the same tonight.

Who will win Dodgers vs Rockies today: Dodgers -1.5 (-125)

The Los Angeles Dodgers ran up the score Monday, and I expect them to do so again vs. Ryan Feltner tonight.

He is one of the worst pitchers in baseball, ranking in the fourth percentile in Pitcher Run Value. Feltner is in dreadful form, posting a 6.05 xFIP and 1.7 K-BB% over the last month.

He neither misses bats nor limits power, which will make it difficult to get outs against a patient Dodgers lineup.

Eric Lauer has allowed three earned runs or fewer in all but one start with L.A., and that’s all he’ll need to do.

Play to -135.

COVERS INTEL: The Dodgers lead the majors in OPS, and should have a field day against Feltner and his eighth percentile barrel rate.

Dodgers vs Rockies Over/Under pick: Over 11.5 (-115)

The Dodgers haven’t been themselves of late, but they still rank in the 99th percentile with a .426 xSLG against righties.

They’re set up to score in abundance against Feltner, who owns a seventh percentile ranking in xSLG and will have nowhere to hide at Coors.

Favorable hitting weather is expected, with a projected 25% boost to home runs. Feltner owns a 6.69 ERA over eight starts when there’s been a boost of 20% or more.

Lauer has struggled with the long ball (2.01 HR/9), and the Colorado Rockies rank third in home OPS.

Play to -122.

Dodgers vs Rockies home run prediction: Kyle Tucker (+475)

I like the idea of buying low on Kyle Tucker.

He's been much more productive on the road, and there’s no better environment to hit than Coors Field.

Tucker has left the park in 19% of his away games vs. starting pitchers who rank in the 30th percentile or worse vs. lefties, and Feltner sits in the 16th percentile.

Tucker has hit for the most power against the fastball, Feltner’s most-used pitch, and Tucker hit a 362-foot flyout just yesterday.

I’d play Tucker down to +450.

Dodgers vs Rockies weather

The forecast calls for temperatures in the mid 80s, which should help the ball carry even further for hitters. Boost to the offenses.

Dodgers vs Rockies odds

• Moneyline: Dodgers -190 | Rockies +160
• Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (-125) | Rockies +1.5 (+105)
• Over/Under: Over 11.5 (-115) | Under 11.5 (-105)

Dodgers vs Rockies trend

Colorado has hit the Over in 14 of its last 23 (+3.80 units, 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Rockies.

How to watch Dodgers vs Rockies and game info

Dodgers vs Rockies latest injuries

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The Giants and Guardians made an early season trade – now they play a late-season series with the trade pieces likely playing a prominent role for each of these disappointing teams.

The Giants are 51-73 with a -67 run differential, 20th in team wRC+ with 97, 26th in baserunning runs above average at -4.9, 18th in Defense at -20.9, 19th in starting pitcher ERA 4.37 (4.09 FIP), and 24th in bullpen ERA 4.38 (4.32 FIP).

The Guardians are 60-65 with a -32 run differential, 24th in team wRC+ with 94, ninth in baserunning runs above average at 5.2, eighth in Defense at -4.8, 10th in starting pitcher ERA at 3.77 (3.99 FIP), and 12th in bullpen ERA 3.97 (3.90 FIP).

The Giants are pretty bad at just about everything. If ever there is a time for the season to turn around, it should be now.

Matchups:
Tuesday, 6:40PM ET: Whisenhunt, LHP 6.11 ERA (5.40 FIP) vs. Griffin, LHP 3.25 ERA (4.23 FIP)
Wednesday, 6:40PM ET: TBD (Houser, RHP 4.28/4.67 FIP or Tugboat Wilkinson, LHP) vs. Messick, LHP 2.59 ERA (3.23 FIP)
Thursday, 1:10PM ET: Roupp, RHP 4.31 ERA (3.62 FIP) vs. Williams, RHP 3.74 ERA (3.59 FIP)

The Giants are led by Bryce Eldridge 117 wRC+, Rafael Devers 117 wRC+, Casey Schmitt 114 wRC+, Jung Hoo Lee 111 wRC+, and Victor Beritoco 109 wRC+.

The Guardians are led by Nathaniel Lowe 128 wRC+, Chase DeLauter 127 wRC+ (please, be back), Angel Genao 126 wRC+, Austin Hedges 105 wRC+, Steven Kwan 104 wRC+, Jose Ramirez 103 wRC+ and Travis Bazzana 102 wRC+.

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Who will win Marlins vs Phillies today: Marlins (+197)

The Fightin' Fish look pretty delectable this evening after coming off a 6-5 loss last night. They now draw veteran right-hander Zack Wheeler, who has looked off in his last three outings. Wheeler owns a 5.84 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, and a 10.34% walk rate during that stretch. With the Miami Marlins' lineup starting to heat up again, this could be an interesting matchup. 

The Marlins own a 119 wRC+, .339 wOBA, and .759 OPS in their last six games. The Philadelphia Phillies' offense has been great, but they don't boast as many hitters barreling the ball like the Marlins, which is why the latter is an intriguing pick at a near 2/1 price. 

Tyler Phillips seems likely to follow opener Cade Gibson for Miami. He's been struggling, but paying more than two dollars for a team to secure a win on a random Tuesday in August doesn't move any needles. 

COVERS INTEL:Owen Caissie sports a .274 ISO, 50% hard-hit rate, and a 19.4% barrel rate over his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.

Marlins vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+105)

With over half of the Marlins' lineup batting from the left side this evening, runs could be on the horizon. Wheeler has scuffling against left-handed hitters in his last three outings, posting a 6.75 ERA, 5.78 xERA, 6.05 xFIP, and 15.2% walk rate. Phillips has also been lagging on the road, where he owns a near 6.00 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP.

Both offenses are hitting extremely well right now, so I expect plenty of runs. After 11 runs were scored last night, we should see a similar offensive explosion this evening.

Marlins vs Phillies home run prediction: Griffin Conine (+474)

It's very hard to ignore a batter who's been producing this much hard contact over his last 10 games, and Marlins outfielder Griffin Conine has been destroying baseballs. He owns a .690 slugging percentage, .345 ISO, 15.8% ground-ball rate, 58% hard-hit rate, and 21.1% barrel rate during that stretch.

Wheeler has taken a step back against left-handed hitters. The last 60 he's faced are making 44% hard contact, and barreling the ball 11% of the time with just a 22% ground-ball rate. Wheeler is also allowing a 2.08 HR/9 during that span.

Conine enters today with the highest matchup rating in this game, according to Batters-Box, where he covers 60% of Wheeler's offerings.

At +474, we're getting a great price for a hitter absolutely killing the baseball. Play this down to +450.

Marlins vs Phillies weather

Marlins vs Phillies odds

• Moneyline: Marlins +197 | Phillies -219
• Run line: Marlins +1.5 (-112) | Phillies -1.5 (-103)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+105) | Under 8.5 (-116)

Marlins vs Phillies trend

The Miami Marlins have covered the run line in seven of their last nine games (+7.50 Units / 69% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Phillies.

How to watch Marlins vs Phillies and game info

Marlins vs Phillies latest injuries

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Patrick Sandoval has been playing with fire baserunners all season since returning from Tommy John surgery this year, and it finally blew up on the Red Sox over the weekend. Now we’re hearing that an injury may be playing a role in his performance, even if it’s a small one. Sandoval apparently has been battling a blister on his left foot (the foot he uses to push off the rubber) for most of the year. (Jon Conahan, NESN)

If Sandoval does go on the IL — or if he’s just bumped from the rotation for underperformance — the Sox do have another experienced starter on the roster who could take his rotation spot in Brayan Bello. The problem is that Bello, for whatever reason, is thriving in his long relief role after struggling in the first inning all season long. “Does this mean Brayan can’t start anymore? That’s not the case,” Chad Tracy said. “It’s difficult to ignore how very, very effective he has been coming out of the bullpen in a bulk relief role and taking down innings. So I don’t think that we’ve closed the book on that by any means. It just feels like that’s the way to do it right now.” (Tim Healey, Boston Globe)

Bello is pitching so well in his long relief role that it’s hard not to think about what the narrative of his season would be if he was able to perform this way as a conventional starter. He has an ERA of 0.85 in over 50 relief innings, and if he were performing anywhere close to that while starting games, we’d be talking about him having a career year and thrusting himself into the Cy Young conversation. As it stands, Cam Schlittler of the Yankees seems to have that award locked up, though Sonny Gray is currently projected to finish fifth. (Jason Foster, MLB.com)

Sonny Gray is rightly heralded as one of the best offseason acquisitions any big league team has made this year. But, so far, the Red Sox trade deadline acquisitions aren’t faring nearly as well. (Rob Bradford, WEEI)

Bello isn’t the only Red Sox veteran who went missing from this team for most of the middle of the season, of course. Trevor Story has been out since mid-May recovering from sports hernia surgery, after struggling through the first weeks of the season. But he now hopes to return as early as Friday. It’s fair to ask whether he still should get the nod at shortstop given his poor performance before hitting the IL, but Chad Tracy says the goal is for him to be the everyday shortstop again. (Tim Healey, Boston Globe)

If he does make it back to the big leagues this week, Story won’t be the first one to make the trip East from Worcester. Reliever Wyatt Olds made the drive yesterday, after being called up to make his MLB debut in place of Raymond Burgos. But before he headed to Boston, he got pranked by the Woo Sox coaching staff. (Mac Cerullo, Boston Herald)