LAS VEGAS — They’re arriving from all parts of the country like every other tourist hitting the casinos, hoping their wager strikes it rich so they can a fortune back home.
Some spinning roulette wheels. And others flipping cards at the blackjack or rolling dice at the craps tables.
But for executives representing the 30 teams arriving into town Monday for Major League Baseball’s General Manager meetings, they’ll be trying to sweet-talk free agents, coerce rivals into trades, and hope to leave town by the end of the week with at least one desired possession on their radar.
These meetings will be unique with no executive or agent knowing exactly how the landscape will look like in 2027.
Will there be a salary cap? Will there be strict financial restrictions? Will nothing be changed? Will everything look different? When will the 2027 season start? Will there even be a 2027 season?
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The best bet is that the high-priced free agents, fearing the great unknown, will sign before the pending lockout at 11:59 p.m ET on Dec. 1, to get their money now while big-market teams still are in play. This means no more waltzing through the winter and all of the way until spring training, with players wanting to secure their future in these next three weeks before the lockout, just like 2021 when nearly $2 billion was spent in the final days before the 99-day lockout. There were six free-agent signings in excess of $100 million that year, with the Texas Rangers dropping a cool $500 million on infielders Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, and a record 27 signings in all the final day.
But this weak free-agent class, sorely lacking in depth, could mean that teams will be more aggressive in trade talks, believing their best hope is to part with prospects instead of relying on checkbook baseball. Yet, with the lockout potentially shortening the 2027 season, GMs believe that players with only one more year of control will have their value diminished unknowing just how many games he’ll actually play for his new team.
GMs and executives believe the blueprint for these meetings will be eerily similar to 2021. There’ll be plenty of conversations with agents and teams in trade talks, but no one will be walking out the doors of the Aria Resort & Casino with a major acquisition by the end of the week.
Here’s a pre-lockout look at who will be the biggest movers and shakers this week, from executives to free agents to players on the trade block to players who could hit free agency a year early:
FIVE EXECUTIVES TO WATCH
Dave Dombrowski, Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies continually make the playoffs, albeit on the final day of the season this year, but have gone backwards in the postseason. They have gone from winning the pennant and losing in the World Series in 2022; losing in the NLCS in 2023; losing in the NLDS in 2024-2025; and losing in the NL wild card round last season. The Phillies, who are in desperate need for a third baseman and left fielder, badly want to shake things up, and that requires more than just firing a few of their coaches. Brandon Marsh and Trea Turner are available, but Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are staying put.
A.J. Preller, San Diego Padres: The Padres have brand new ownership, who spent $3.9 billion on the franchise, but the question now is how much Kwanza Jones and Jose E. Feliciano are willing to add to the payroll. The Padres had to piecemeal their starting rotation lst season, and will be without free agents Michael King and Nick Pivetta, as well as premier left-handed setup man Adrian Morejon. Preller wants to be aggressive, but he still has monstrous backloaded contracts on the books with Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis and Xander Bogaerts. That trio alone is owed $721 million, and they each have no-trade clauses. Would Preller dare dangle Tatis, or all-world closer Mason Miller?
Jed Hoyer, Chicago Cubs: Well, not only did Hoyer and the Cubs have to watch their crosstown rivals, the White Sox, play deeper than they did into the postseason, but their NL Central nemesis, the Milwaukee Brewers, are now the belle of the ball as World Series champions. And after winning the NL Central four consecutive years, the Brewers aren’t going away anytime soon. The Cubs lost five free-agent starters, and will be as aggressive as any team in baseball trying to completely revamp its rotation. They’ll be in play for Tarik Skubal, and every other marquee free-agent starter from Michael King to Freddy Peralta to Sonny Gray.
Chris Young, Texas Rangers: Young and his staff have been informed that the payroll will not be increasing, meaning that if they need to bring in talent, some has to go out the door. That means Young will be letting teams know that everyone from Corey Seager to Jacob deGrom to Nathan Eovaldi will be available. It will be difficult moving them with their contracts, but the trio also has full no-trade clauses. Oh, and to make matters worse, the AL West is only going to get better with the Angels and A’s about to start spending, and the Mariners out to prove that last year’s grossly underachieving season was simply an aberration.
Andrew Friedman, Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers had their most miserable October in three years, and despises the feeling. Now, with an aging team that’s now a year older, we’re about to find out whether owner Mark Walter’s insurance empire’s woes will have an impact on the Dodgers. If the Dodgers sign Tarik Skubal, it’ll be business as usual. If they don’t, well, Friedman may have to pull more tricks up his sleeve than simply moving outfielder Teoscar Hernandez.
MLB TRADE RUMORS: 10 TRADE TARGETS TO WATCH
Corey Seager, Texas Rangers
The Rangers need to dump a big contract if they want to restructure their team, and it starts with Seager, who still has $155 million remaining over the next five years of his deal. He is coming off the worst year of his career last year with 20 homers, 51 RBIs and a .736 OPS, and had elbow surgery in October. He has also missed 159 games the last three seasons. If that’s not complicated enough, Seager, 33, also has 10-and-5 rights and can veto any trade.
Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks
This is becoming a messy divorce. The D-backs tried to trade Marte last winter, but never received the offer they wanted, and kept him. Now, they deeply regret it. They are more compelled than ever to move him, but Marte now has full no-trade rights. If the D-backs can’t get Marte to show up to the ballpark, how in the world can they expect him to agree to a trade? This will be a fascinating soap opera.
Peña was close to signing a five-year extension in 2025, switched agents to Scott Boras, and now all contract talks have ended. He’s a free agent after the 2027 season, and the Astros can slide Carlos Correa back to shortstop if needed. The Astros will certainly listen to all offers, just as they did with Kyle Tucker two years ago, and their decision may be based on whether there will qualifying offers will even exist in the next CBA to gain a draft pick when he departs as a free agent.
It was surprising that Ryan wasn’t moved when the Twins had their firesale at the 2025 trade deadline. The Twins declined the $13 million mutual option with him, leaving him eligible for salary arbitration one last time. They’ll certainly dangle him and listen to see if any offers make sense now, or wait until next July when his value may rise.
Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers
It’s hard to believe that deGrom’s 5-year, $185 million contract that he signed with the Rangers is now on the final year, paying him $37 million in 2027, but there’s a kicker. If he pitches at least 160 innings in 2027 and finishes in the top five of Cy Young voting, it triggers a $37 million player option in 2028. He rejected a deal to Atlanta last year at the trade deadline, would he do it again this winter? Is there any place he’s willing to waive his no-trade clause?
Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays
Rasmussen proved to be one of the finest pitchers on the planet last year, and after three elbow surgeries, is a walking medical miracle. He and Phillies ace Cristopher Sánchez are the only two pitchers who have made at least 30 starts and yielded a sub-3.00 ERA the past two seasons. The Rays picked up his $20 million option, making him their highest-paid player for a single season in franchise history, and said they plan to keep him. But also said there are no guarantees. They’ll listen, and if someone jumps in with an offer they can’t refuse, they may have to part ways.
Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
No one would have ever imagined two years ago that Henderson would ever become available. This is a guy who finished fourth in the MVP voting in 2024 with a 7.0 WAR. His offensive production has since plummeted. He has gone from 37 homers to averaging 20 the past two years, with his slugging percentage plummeting from .529 to .420. The Orioles gave up on catcher Adley Rutschman last summer. Henderson could be their next homegrown All-Star to go.
Trevor Megill, Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers now have a history of trading away their closers a year from free agency, sending All-Star Josh Hader to San Diego in 2022 and Devin Williams to the Yankees in 2024. Megill has saved 30 games each of the past two seasons, but the Brewers also have Abner Uribe and Aaron Ashby who certainly have the talent to be premier closers. Megill, who’s projected to earn $8 million next year, will definitely be shopped, and likely moved before opening day.
Jacob Wilson, Athletics
Wilson just completed the first year of his seven-year, $70 million contract, but took a big step backwards offensively. He went from 13 homers and 63 RBIs with an .800 OPS to seven homers and 37 RBIs with a .685 OPS. There’s certainly zero urgency to trade him, but the A’s are desperate for starting pitching, and he is a fabulous trade chip.
Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have talked about trading Duran for two years, but have always had a high asking price. That price figures to drop after he was the second-worst qualifying hitter in baseball, slashing .207/.266/.361 last year. They don’t want to pay a projected $11 million in salary arbitration for a player who may be a fourth outfielder, at best. He should be as good as gone.
10 MLB FREE AGENTS TO WATCH
Tarik Skubal
He broke the salary arbitration record a year ago. He’ll break the free-agent record for a pitcher this winter. Skubal certainly will exceed the $325 million contract that Yoshinobu Yamamoto received two years ago from the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers will be the favorites to re-sign him, but with owner Mark Walter’s finances under investigation, and the New York Mets already having $244.4 million on the books for 2027, with a potential salary cap on the horizon, could there be a surprise team? The Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres and Toronto Blue Jays could sneak in and grab him?
Freddy Peralta
Will the real Freddy Peralta stand up? Is it the Peralta that was the Milwaukee Brewers’ ace and one of the finest pitchers in the National League? Is it the Peralta who was a bust for four months with the New York Mets (5-9, 4.99 ERA)? Or is it the Peralta whose greatness resurfaced with the Rays the last two months of the season, yielding a 0.79 ERA his last six starts, and was the ALCS MVP? He’s the only pitcher in baseball who has made at least 30 starts each of the past four seasons, and will be a nice back-up option for those who can’t afford Skubal.
Adrian Morejon
Simply, the finest left-handed reliever on the market. He may have only eight career saves, but he was invaluable as the San Diego Padres’ setup man, going 9-3 with a 2.83 ERA, and striking out 107 batters in 86 innings. The only worry is that he was unavailable for the Padres the final two games of the postseason with left shoulder soreness.
Luis Arráez
There’s not a better contact hitter in the game than this three-time batting champion, and as the Milwaukee Brewers proved on their way to the World Series championship, contact plays. Arráez also improved his value by playing tremendous defense at second base last year for the Giants and Phillies. He’s tired of constantly switching teams, and hopes that this time around, he can find a permanent home that appreciates his uncanny bat skills.
Michael King
He turned out to be the centerpiece of the Padres’ trade that sent Juan Soto to the Yankees. He was fabulous for the Padres and went from a reliever to an ace, going 30-22 with a 3.15 ERA. Certainly, he wants to be paid like an ace now, opting out of the final $58 million over two years remaining on his contract. He may have more suitors than any free agent on the market.
Jazz Chisholm
He could be in for a rude awakening in the free agent market with executives openly wondering if anyone would give him more than a two-year contract. No one can debate his talent. He may need an opt-out on any multi-year proposal so he can hit market again and re-establish himself.
Teruaki Sato
He’s coming off a Triple Crown season in Japan, hitting .306 with 39 homers and 106 RBIs, after hitting 40 homers in 2025. Yet, he has teams wondering if he could be an everyday third baseman, first baseman or left fielder. Teams are worried about his rash of strikeouts, 909 in 3,313 plate appearances in Nippon Professional Baseball. They worry whether he’ll be overmatched by Major League pitching. Yep, the same concerns that everyone had about Munetaka Murakami, and he made fools out of everyone but the Chicago White Sox who got a steal at $34 million over two years. He’s entering a weak free-agent market with lessons from Murakami dancing in everyone’s heads.
Brandon Lowe
He not only is one of the premier power-hitting second basemen in the game, but his defense dramatically improved last year in Pittsburgh, too, ranking in the 98th percentile in defensive run value. He played in a career-high 150 games last year, hitting 35 homers with a 121 OPS+. There’s no reason in the world the Pirates should not bring him back for an encore. He was exactly what the Pirates needed to rejuvenate their offense.
Sonny Gray
Gray, 37, is defying Father Time with a sensational season with the Red Sox, going 18-5 with a 2.72 ERA. He also proved once and for all that he can pitch in a major market. He’d be ideal in Atlanta teaming with Chris Sale for a 1-2 old man’s punch.
Mauricio Dubon
You want the best utilityman in baseball? Dubon is your man. He can play all over the field, playing 99 games in the outfield, 62 games at shortstop, eight games at third base and four games at second. He also hit .276 with 12 homers and 10 steals. His free agency should be fascinating since every team in baseball could use a player like this.
TEN PLAYERS WHO WILL BENEFIT MOST IF FREE AGENCY IS REDUCED TO 5 YEARS FOR 30-YEAR-OLDS
- Mason Miller, San Diego Padres: He’d be eligible for free agency after the 2028 season.
- Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians: Eligible for free agency after 2030.
- Otto Lopez, Miami Marlins: Eligible for free agency after 2028.
- Ben Rice, New York Yankees: Eligible for free agency after 2029.
- Caleb Durbin, Boston Red Sox: Eligible for free agency after 2030.
- Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates: Eligible for free agency after 2030.
- Bryan Baker, Tampa Bay Rays: Eligible for free agency after 2027.
- Tristan Peters, Chicago White Sox: Eligible for free agency after 2030.
- Dillon Dingler, Detroit Tigers: Eligible for free agency after 2029
- Jonathan Aranda, Tampa Bay Rays: Eligible for free agency after 2028.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: What happens in Vegas? Top MLB free agents and trade targets for GM Meetings
