GDT: Hey Twins, thanks for the Delmon Young trade

ST. PETERSBURG, FL - JULY 15: Carlos Pena #23 of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays is congratulated by teammate Delmon Young #26 after Pena hit a two-run home-run in the seventh inning against Ron Villone #47 of the New York Yankees on July 15, 2007 at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Doug Benc/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Gavin Lux is slated to make his spring debut while Chandler Simpson and Cedric Mullins will make their returns to the Rays lineup.

First pitch against the Minnesota Twins is at 1:05 at Charlotte Sports Park and the Rays will be providing radio coverage.

FanGraphs releases updated Atlanta Braves Top 33 prospects list for 2026

Feb 20, 2026; North Port FL, USA; Atlanta Braves pitcher JR Ritchie (93) poses for a photo during media day at CoolToday Park. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

The last big publication, FanGraphs, have released their released their pre-season Braves top prospect list – lets jump in and take a look.

Let’s break down this list into groups of five and discuss.

Group 1

  • JR Ritchie
  • Didier Fuentes
  • Cam Caminiti
  • Owen Murphy
  • Alex Lodise

While there is no surprise in the names associated with the top five, save maybe Alex Lodise, the order in which they are ranked is open for discussion. Without a true plus pitch, according to the writer, JR Ritchie tops the list above Didier Fuentes and Cam Caminiti both of whom have at least one pitch that is currently graded with a future value of 60. Sliding in after Cam is Owen Murphy, but then surprisingly it’s Alex Lodise who is the first positional player to reach the list. With a 20 grade hit tool, and the approach problem that currently plagues him, it’s interesting to say the least that Lodise is above the likes of a Gil or a Tornes who have both made names for themselves with their very professional approach at the plate. While there’s nothing necessarily wrong with this grouping, it’s just an overall interesting way to group them.

Group 2

  • Garrett Baumann
  • Luke Sinnard
  • Diego Tornes
  • John Gil
  • Tate Southisene

A lot to like about the names on this section of the list, but once again it’s the order of the players that comes into question. Without a true standout pitch, at least yet, Garrett Baumann comes in above Luke Sinnard and his slider/cutter/splitter combination of pitches. Diego Tornes, and John Gil coming in below Lodise is questionable but make sure to read what was said about the two, as there is lofty praise.

Group 3

  • Briggs McKenzie
  • Owen Carey
  • Conor Essenburg
  • Edelson Cabral
  • Raudy Reyes

Much like the second group, tools stand out in this section as Briggs McKenzie and his curveball, Owen Carey and his overall approach, Conor Essenburg and his power potential, and Raudy Reyes and his massive fastball make this portion of the list. The intriguing addition is Edelson Cabral, who was considered a polished middle infielder, without the highest of upsides found his way all the way to #14 overall.

Group 4

  • Eric Hartman
  • Blake Burkhalter
  • Rolddy Muñoz
  • Carter Holton
  • Luis Guanipa

Group 4 consists of a high upside athletic 2B/OF in Eric Hartman, a trio of relievers (potentially), and a 5-tool prospect who has struggled with injuries. While Guanipa dropping to 20 isn’t that big of a surprise because he has yet to fully put together a season, having his enormous upside below the likes of Blake Burkhalter and Rolddy Muñoz paints the picture of someone who highlights ceiling more than floor – again a perfectly reasonable thing to do, just doesn’t necessarily fit with my line of thinking/ranking. That said, it is nice to see Eric Hartman getting national love as he does have a very intriguing skill set that every organization would want.

Group 5

  • Landon Beidelschies
  • Lucas Braun
  • Drue Hackenberg
  • Ethan Bagwell
  • Hayden Harris

Once again the value of relievers is apparent as Landon Beidelschies and Hayden Harris make up 40% of this grouping. While it is interesting to see Lucas Braun and Drue Hackenberg that close, it speaks more to Drue’s upside than it does his struggles on the mound in 2025. Ethan Bagwell coming in at 24 is one of the highest rankings I’ve seen for him to which I personally love.

Group 6

  • Herick Hernandez
  • Angel Carmona
  • Brett Sears
  • Cade Kuehler
  • Jose Perdomo

The biggest part of this list is the inclusion of Angel Carmona this high on a list, with Jose Perdomo dropping all the way to 30th. Angel had a fantastic 2025, with an .827 OPS across 20 games in his age 18 season so it’s not surprising he is getting love, just surprising to see him over the likes of a Jeremy Reyes, Rayven Antonio, Cody Miller, Dixon Williams, Jhancarlos Lara, or Isaiah Drake all players with large upsides that put together strong seasons themselves against higher quality competition. There’s nothing against Carmona, but when that much talent is left off the list it’s an interesting choice.

Group 7

  • Connor Thomas
  • Jose Manon
  • Starlyn De La Cruz

Love the additions of Starlyn and Jose Manon this high on any list despite not having played a game yet, but again it’s the addition of a Connor Thomas over any of the players listed in the above section that warrants discussion.

What are your thoughts on Fangraphs list? Do you like the aggressive rankings of floors over ceilings? What are the biggest changes you would make?

Washington Nationals officially sign Zack Littell to an incentive laden one-year deal

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - AUGUST 5: Zack Littell #52 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches in a game against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on August 5, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Matt Dirksen/Getty Images) | Getty Images

While the news broke a couple days ago, the Nats made the signing of Zack Littell official. We also got the terms of the deal, which are quite interesting. The base of the contract is a one-year $7 million deal. However, with incentives and a mutual option, Littell is likely to make much more than that.

If you include the $4 million buyout, the least Littell could make is $11 million dollars. By 2020’s Nats standards, $11 million is a big investment. Heading into the offseason, Littell likely expected to make more on a multi-year deal. However, he had to settle for this offer as Opening Day loomed. 

The incentives are based off of innings pitched. They start at 100 innings, and continue to climb as he throws more. Littell is a workhorse who threw 186.2 innings last year, so these incentives are quite attainable. It may not be what he was looking for after posting a sub-4 ERA in over 185 innings, but this is still a solid deal for Littell.

He was actually in the locker room this morning, so I got the chance to talk to him for a bit. While he signed late in the offseason, Littell is confident he will be ready for Opening Day. He said that he has been throwing live sessions to hitters and building up as he normally would in a season. Littell told me he and the Nats will “map out” the next steps, but he feels like he is right on schedule. 

Interestingly, Littell said that his agent and Paul Toboni have a great relationship and had been talking throughout the offseason. It seems like Toboni waited for the price tag to come down and struck when the market got to where he wanted it. Littell said the Nats were always “hanging around and checking in” throughout the process.

Speaking of relationships, Littell mentioned that he has some ties to the Nats new staff. He did not really know any of the players, but his days with the Rays created ties with the Nats staff, which has a lot of connections to Tampa. Michael Johns, the Nats bench coach is one guy he mentioned. He was the first base coach for the Rays while Littell was there.

Obviously manager Blake Butera was with the Rays, but he and Littell did not interact much. Butera was working on the minor league side of things, while Littell was a big league pitcher. He said that they would see each other around every once in a while, but nothing beyond that.

However, he said that Butera was well regarded in the Rays clubhouse. Littell said that guys who played for Butera loved him and he never heard a bad word about the new Nats skipper. He also worked with Simon Mathews while he was with the Reds, and he said he was excited to reconnect with him.

After the season he had, Littell probably thought he would get a bigger deal than this, but he seemed excited to be on board. Littell brings a combination of reliability and production that the Nats needed badly. This surprise late addition really raises the floor of the Nats rotation.

The Nats needed to open up a 40-man roster spot to make this move, and did so by DFA’ing Richard Lovelady. While Lovelady had his moments this spring, his control was hit or miss. Hopefully he passes through waivers because Lovelady is a useful depth arm.

Lovelady is no stranger to the waiver wire. This is the fifth time Lovelady has been DFA’d in the last 12 months. He is the epitome of a guy who sticks on the back end of a 40-man roster.

Overall, this Littell pickup is very exciting by Nats free agent standards. Hopefully Littell has a solid season and either becomes a trade chip, or someone the Nats can keep around longer term. At just 30 years old, he could be a useful middle to back of the rotation arm for years to come.

Mets news: Team announces first roster cuts, option/reassign Tong, Wenninger, Morabito, Ross, and Pintaro

PORT ST. LUCIE, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 19: Jack Wenninger #92 of the New York Mets poses for a photo during the New York Mets Photo Day at Clover Park on February 19, 2026 in Port St. Lucie, Florida. (Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Over the last few days, the Mets made their first roster cuts of spring training, cutting five players from major league camp. Jack Wenninger, the only one of the five not on the 40-Man Roster, was reassigned to minor-league camp, while the four players on the 40 were optioned to Triple-A. Those four players are Jonah Tong, Nick Morabito, Dylan Ross, and Jonathan Pintaro. The Mets are now down to 63 players in major league camp.

These moves are not a referendum on the individual performances, but rather an opportunity to both get them set up for their seasons in Triple-A and also to allow the Mets to have more opportunity to evaluate players who are more on the bubble for a roster spot. All of these players will possibly and perhaps are even likely to appear in further major league spring training games, and the move to minors camp is more just to start the process of shaping the Opening Day roster.

Ross, the first cut, happened back on March 6 without a single pitch tossed in a spring game. Morabito appeared in five games, collecting two hits in 11 plate appearances with a walk, a double, two RBIs, and two stolen bases. This all aligns with the type of player he’s been thus far.

Tong made one start in spring thus far, going two and a third innings, striking out two, allowing three earned runs on a home run and two other hits while walking one and hitting another batter. The line doesn’t look fantastic, but his stuff looked good until he tired in the third inning and gave up the dinger.

Pintaro made two relief appearances for the Mets, going four innings of one-run ball, striking out and walking four apiece. He also allowed four hits.

Wenniger, one of the next batch of starting pitching prospects a little behind the Tong/Nolan McLean/Christian Scott class, appeared in three games, tossing six and two-thirds innings. His control was a little off, allowing seven walks, but he struck out ten and gave up two earned runs on six hits.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see at least two of three, if not all five, of these players get some big league appearances in 2026.

Picking the Dodgers opening day starting rotation

Feb 26, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Tyler Glasnow against the Chicago White Sox during a spring training game at Camelback Ranch-Glendale. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

There are two weeks of exhibition games remaining before things turn real for the Dodgers, on March 26 at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks. We have a pretty good general idea of the roster, with a few choices remaining.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto will likely pitch for Japan this Saturday, then once more for the Dodgers in preparation for the regular season. Tyler Glasnow went 2 2/3 innings last Wednesday and starts on Tuesday against the Diamondbacks, possibly this time around the first Dodgers pitcher to last into the fourth inning.

Shohei Ohtani is doing his pitching work on the side while away at the World Baseball Classic, and he’s kind of in his own category, outside the realm of normal starting pitcher progression.

Roki Sasaki is a work in progress, Justin Wrobleski has been sharp in his three games thus far, and Emmet Sheehan is back on the beam after sidelined by illness earlier in camp. River Ryan has looked effective as well in his return from Tommy John surgery.

We know and can acknowledge that opening day is only a snapshot of a short period of a season that lasts over six months, and that several pitchers will be used throughout the year. But for our purposes today, let’s focus on the early part of the season. The Dodgers host the Diamondbacks for three games, take Sunday, March 29 off, then finish the homestand with three games against the Cleveland Guardians from March 30-April 2.

Today’s question is which Dodgers pitchers will start the first five games of the regular season?

WBC Wrap: Team USA defeats Mexico for first time in 20 years

HOUSTON, TX - MARCH 09: Roman Anthony #3 of Team USA celebrates with Kyle Schwarber #12 after hitting a three-run home run in the third inning during the 2026 World Baseball Classic Pool B game presented by Capital One between Team Mexico and Team USA at Daikin Park on Monday, March 9, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Rob Tringali/WBCI/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

We had a lot of great games Monday but not many upsets.

Tonight, we will have a game thread for the three evening games, which are: Israel/Netherlands, Canada/Puerto Rico and Italy/USA. The thread will post at 5:30 p.m. CT.

Pool A (San Juan):

Colombia 4, Panama 3

Colombia scored four runs in the sixth inning and hung on to beat Panama 4-3.

This game was a pitcher’s duel to start. Panama’s Paolo Espino, who pitched for Panama in the very first World Baseball Classic all the way back in 2006, made his very last start before retirement a good one. Espino threw 4.1 innings and allowed just one hit and no runs. He struck out four and walked no one.

Here are some Espino highlights [VIDEO].

The problem for Espino and Panama was that Colombia’s Adrian Almeida, who pitched in the minors for the Mets and Angels and is in the Mexican League now, was even better. Almeida allowed just one baserunner of over four innings and that was a hit by pitch.

The game was still scoreless in the top of the sixth when Colombia got to Panama reliever Miguel Gómez, who pitched in the Nationals system last year. After Mariners top prospect Michael Arroyo walked and Harold Ramírez singled, Gómez was summoned from the pen and walked the bases loaded.

After a sacrifice fly by the A’s Jordan Diaz, Reynaldo Rodríguez, who has been in the Mexican League since leaving the Twins minor league system in 2016, singled home two [VIDEO].

Rays minor leaguer Daniel Vellojin would single home the fourth run of the sixth inning with one out.

Panama was without a hit until the Yankees’ José Caballero drove one over the left field wall. [VIDEO]

That’s where things stayed until Panama rallied in the eighth inning off former Cubs’ farmhand Yapson Gómez. Dodgers minor leaguer José Ramos, Edmundo Sosa and the Cubs’ Christian Bethancourt hit three-straight two-out singles. Here’s Bethancourt’s single that made it 4-3 [VIDEO].

But that was all there was in this game. Well, not all as tempers boiled when Panama’s Jonathan Arauz got into a scuffle with his manager José Mayorga.

Miguel Amaya was 0 for 2 in this game and was pulled for a pinch runner after he was hit by pitch.

Christian Bethancourt was 1 for 4 with the RBI.

Panama and Colombia both finish pool play at 1-3.

Puerto Rico 4, Cuba 1

Puerto Rico clinches a spot in the single-elimination rounds with a 4-1 win over Cuba.

Puerto Rico loaded the bases in the bottom of the second inning off of former Rangers minor leaguer Julio Robaina. That brought up Martín Maldonado and he emptied the bases in a hurry with a three-run double down the left field line. [VIDEO]

Puerto Rico added on another run in the fifth on a sacrifice fly by Carlos Cortes.

Cuba managed only two hits off of five Puerto Rico pitchers, led by Yankees Triple-A player Elmer Rodríguez. But one of the hitswas this double in the sixth inning by longtime NPB player Alfredo Despaigne. It came off former Phillies pitcher Yacksel Ríos and scored one run. [VIDEO]

Cuba can still advance to the elimination round with a win over Canada on Wednesday. In fact, the winner of that game will go on to the quarterfinals.

Pool B (Houston):

Great Britain 8, Brazil 1

Great Britain avoids finishing last in the group and having to qualify for the next WBC with an 8-1 win over Brazil. Brazil, on the other hand, is relegated down to the qualifying groups.

Both British starter Brendon Beck, a 2021 second-round pick of the Yankees, and Brazilian starter Enzo Sawayama, who plays in the industrial leagues in Japan, held the other team scoreless through four innings.

Brazil actually scored first in this game when catcher Gabriel Do Carmo, who plays in the French (!) League, doubled in a run off of Rays minor leaguer Gary Gill Hill. [VIDEO]

Unfortunately for Brazil, that lead was short-lived as Marlins minor leaguer Ian Lewis Jr. led off the bottom of the fifth with a solo home run [VIDEO].

Gotta love that stupid palace guard hat they have to wear when they hit a home run. It’s one of the cute touches that makes the WBC cool.

Later in the fifth inning, Harry Ford Jr. singled home Trayce Thompson [VIDEO] for the lead.

The third British run that inning came on a Jazz Chisholm Jr. groundout.

Unfortunately, that Do Carmo RBI double would be the only hit that Brazil would get in this game and Great Britain scored in every inning from the fifth on. Cardinals Triple-A player Matt Koperniak had a two-run single in the seventh and Chisholm had another two-run single in the eighth.

Cubs minor leaguer BJ Murray Jr. went 1 for 4 with a double and a run scored for Great Britain.

United States 5, Mexico 3

What was shaping up to be a Team USA romp after they scored five runs in the third inning turned into a tight contest, but the USA hung on for a 5-3 win.

Paul Skenes started for Team USA and he dominated, as Paul Skenes is known to do. Skenes allowed just one hit and one walk over four innings while striking out seven. [VIDEO]

Skenes got some help from this outfield assist from Aaron Judge. [VIDEO]

Judge put Team USA up 2-0 in the bottom of the third with this home run off of former Braves pitcher Jesus Cruz. [VIDEO]

Later in the third, Roman Anthony made it 5-0 on this three-run home run off Cruz. [VIDEO]

But Skenes exited after four innings. Garrett Cleveninger threw one inning before Matthew Boyd entered the game in the sixth. I have some advice for Craig Counsell: Don’t let Boyd pitch against Jarren Duran.

First, Duran hit this home run off of Boyd in the sixth. [VIDEO]

Boyd gave up a second run in the sixth inning but it’s hard to blame him after this bad hop single off the bat of the A’s Joey Meneses. [VIDEO]

Boyd retired Mexico in order in the seventh inning, but he had to face Duran again in the eighth. And Duran went deep again. [VIDEO]

Boyd finished with a line of three runs on five hits over 2.1 innings. He struck out three and walked no one.

But that’s all Mexico would get. And Team USA pitchers benefitted from two great defensive plays by shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. [VIDEO]

Alex Bregman was 0 for 3 with a walk.

Pete Crow-Armstrong did not play in this game.

Mexico can still advance to the next round with a win over Italy.

Pool C (Tokyo):

Japan 9, Czechia 0

This result should not be a surprise to anyone. Japan is a potential winner of this tournament and Czechia is really just beginning its baseball history.

Surprisingly, then, the Czechs kept Japan scoreless through seven innings. But Czechia could manage only two hits through eight, and then Japan’s offense went to work, scoring all nine of their runs.

The two big blows were home runs. Ukyo Shuto hit a three-run homer [VIDEO].

Shuto is an outfielder for the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks.

Later that inning, Munetaka Murakami, who will play this year for the White Sox, hit a grand slam [VIDEO].

Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki did not play in this game.

Samurai Japan completes pool play undefeated at 4-0. They’ll face the runner-up from Pool D in Miami in the quarterfinals on Friday.

Pool D (Miami):

Dominican Republic 10, Israel 1

The Dominican Republic had no problem clinching a trip to the single-elimination rounds with a 10-1 win over Israel.

The Dominican Republic took the lead in the second inning. Guardians minor leaguer Ryan Prager retired the side in order in the first, but he walked three batters in the second inning to load the bases. Then he walked Geraldo Perdomo to force in a run and make it 1-0.

Prager did not walk Fernando Tatis Jr. He probably wishes he had. Here’s the grand slam in English, Spanish and Japanese. [VIDEO]

Oneil Cruz made it 6-0 with a home run in the fourth. [VIDEO]

Team Israel didn’t fold at that point and Spencer Horwitz connected off Brayan Bello in the bottom of the fourth. [VIDEO]

But unfortunately for Israel, that was the only hit they’d get off Bello over five innings. Bello struck out seven. [VIDEO]

Tatis would hit a two-run single in the seventh inning, giving him six RBI on the game.

Venezuela 4, Nicaragua 0

Seven Venezuela pitchers scattered seven hits and they made their five hits count for four runs as Venezuela beat Nicaragua 4-0 and clinched a spot in the quarterfinals.

Venezuela took an early lead when Ronald Acuña Jr. walked to lead off the game. Acuña then stole second base, went to third on a bad throw to second and scored on a Jackson Chourio sacrifice fly.

Acuña then made it 2-0 in the third inning with this solo home run. [VIDEO]

Acuña then made it 3-0 with an RBI single in the fifth. [VIDEO]

Venezuela got their fourth and final run on a sacrifice fly by Wilyer Abreu in the sixth inning.

Mariners Prospect Rankings #12, OF Yorger Bautista

Last January’s premiere signing out of Venezuela, Bautista entered the system with high praise amongst scouts familiar with his game. Lauded as perhaps the highest ceiling player in the entire class, Bautista lay claim to potentially plus power, 70-grade run times, and a howitzer of an arm in the outfield. The only real thing missing from his game, however, is perhaps the most important tool of them all: bat-to-ball. Though the surface numbers aren’t necessarily jumping off the page after his first stint in the DSL, defining success is crucial when evaluating a player as young and unpolished as he is. Thanks to his immense skillset and nearly limitless potential, we’ve put him in a tier above our previous entries, marking the first of what is a healthy “middle” tier of prospect found in the Seattle system.

Bautista is a pure ceiling play as a prospect. The tools, while outrageously loud at times, are unrefined and need fine tuning to be maximized in game. Posting a slash line of .223/.326/.404 in his debut season, Yorger had a solid, if unspectacular start to his professional career. He managed to pop seven homers across ~200 PA and stole ten bags without getting caught, but a strikeout rate just a hair under 30% is a wart that’s hard to overlook right now, particularly with his relatively average walk rates. It’s not unheard of to see a player struggle with contact in the DSL and find success down the road (Lazaro Montes struck out over 33% of the time in his first season in the DSL), but it’s definitely an uphill battle. The tools are great to have, but if he can’t make enough contact to get to them, they’re something of a moot point.

A year one with a high strikeout rate was to be expected from the tooled up outfielder. Though it would have been great to see it lower than 30%, the then 17 year old was never going to be a contact machine in his first taste of pro ball and fell into line with what was generally expected. He didn’t make a huge leap offensively, but his performance mirroring the scouting consensus makes sense for a player brand new to professional development programs and keeps him in the picture prospect-wise. Whether he makes it stateside this year or takes another season in the DSL, some positive progression toward contact is a major box he’ll need to check in 2026. It’s impossible to call an age 18 season “make or break”, but if the hit tool stalls and looks roughly the same as it did last year, adjustments to his pedigree as a prospect are inevitable.

Keep an eye on the DSL this season; If Yorger hangs around for another season (I’d wager he’d start in the ACL, but it’s probably pretty close to a toss up), he’d join newcomers Gregory Pio and Juan Rijo in what could be the most fleshed-out lineup the DSL team has had in years.

Yankees Birthday of the Day: Steve Howe

BALTIMORE, MD - JUNE 1: Steve Howe #57 of the New York Yankees looks on before a baseball game against the Baltimore Orioles on May 21, 1994 at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Steve Howe was an extraordinary pitcher. Featuring a bowling-ball sinker that he could locate with pinpoint control, his arm talent and tenacity distinguished him from the competition at every stage of his baseball life. He accomplished things on the field that should form the foundation of a proud legacy. Unfortunately, Howe never got the chance to cement that legacy as the cycle of addiction consumed his life.

Steven Roy Howe
Born: March 10, 1958 (Pontiac, MI)
Died: April 28, 2006 (Coachella, CA)
Yankees Tenure: 1991-96

Steve Howe grew up in Michigan, where he was a standout at Clarkston High School before starring as a Michigan Wolverine. The talented left-hander was selected by longtime Dodgers GM Al Campanis in the first round of the 1979 MLB Draft, jumping straight to Double-A and spending just a single year there before making it to the Show. Howe was an immediate sensation as a rookie, posting a 2.66 ERA in 84.2 innings as the team’s closer while allowing just a single home run. “The kid’s got ice water in his veins,” raved a giddy Campanis of his new phenom. When asked if Howe was deserving of Rookie of the Year honors, his Hall of Fame manager, Tommy Lasorda, retorted: “Rookie of the Year? How about MVP?”

Howe did indeed take home the 1980 NL Rookie of the Year Award and followed up on his success in the years to come. In 1981, he made four scoreless relief appearances in the first two rounds of the playoffs to help the Dodgers to the pennant and was on the mound when his team defeated the Yankees in the Bronx for the title.

It was not until after the 1982 season that the cracks in this young superstar’s facade began to show. Howe entered himself into a substance abuse treatment center at his wife’s urging and, though he would be ready for the start of the following season, by May of 1983 he was back in rehab after no-showing for a game. Commissioner Bowie Kuhn (along with the Dodgers) fined Howe $54,000 for his use of cocaine, beginning a cycle of punishment and redemption that would continue for more than a decade. Howe returned in June and pitched at an elite level through September, when he missed a team flight, was fined another $54,000, and entered back into rehab. That following November, Howe tested positive for cocaine, at which point Kuhn suspended him for all of 1984.

This suspension began what would be a seven-year wilderness period for Howe. He cycled in and out of baseball, with brief stints with the Twins in 1985 and the Rangers in 1987. He spent time with the Single-A San Jose Bees and in Independent ball, as well as agreeing to terms with the Seibu Lions in Japan before the NPB vetoed the deal due to his history of drug use.

It wasn’t until 1991 that Howe would get another shot at a comeback. His agent arranged a tryout for Yankees GM Gene Michael, who offered him a spring training invite the next day. “He’s getting a chance because he’s good,” the matter-of-fact Michael, always a stickler for talent, told the press. “There’s always a need for left-handed pitching.” For his part, Howe espoused that he was leaving his troubles behind him. “That’s in the past,” he said of his drug abuse. “I am recovering today, and I have two years of sobriety. Believe me, if you went through what I’ve gone through, you’d want to forget, too.”

For a former Rookie of the Year, world champion, and All-Star, Howe’s introduction to pinstripes was ignominious. He initially had to wear the uniform of another non-roster invitee, Van Snider, and donned a pair of Don Mattingly’s cleats while waiting for his own equipment. But his golden left arm quickly jumped him back up the food chain. “I haven’t forgotten how to pitch,” Howe said. “I haven’t lost my competitive edge. That’s the key. You take those two things and put them with a 90-mile-an-hour fastball, and that’s success.”

That success would, indeed, come. Howe allowed just one unearned run through 18 innings with Triple-A Columbus before Michael called him up on May 10th. “They tell me he’s throwing as good as he can throw,” the GM said. “He’s as ready as he can be.” The next day, at the age of 33, the reliever cleared a hurdle that would have been unthinkable just months before, making his first big-league appearance since 1987 in a scoreless ninth “I made it,” he declared afterwards. “If I don’t pitch another inning, I got back.”

Howe recorded a 1.68 ERA in 48.1 innings that year and, in a full-circle stat line reminiscent of his halcyon rookie campaign, allowed just a single long ball. Having gone through hell and back, Howe established himself once again as one of the game’s top bullpen arms.

Alas, that December he was arrested by Montana police in a sting operation while purchasing cocaine. Despite protestations that he was coerced—and the fact that he continued to pitch at a high level through early June while the legal proceeding played out—he eventually pleaded guilty and was banned from baseball indefinitely by commissioner Fay Vincent.

It was Howe’s seventh suspension from baseball and, just as many had celebrated his redemption arc upon returning to baseball, the New York press reveled in the chance to beat him while he was down. “Seven-Time Loser” read the back page of one paper. Chris Russo of the newly minted “Mike and the Mad Dog” talk radio show repeatedly called for the suspension to be made permanent.

The banishment would be lifted before the 1993 season, in part because Howe’s manager went to bat for him. “I had to ask myself: how are you going to feel if two or three years from now Steve Howe ends up dead somewhere and you had an opportunity to help him, and you didn’t?” asked Buck Showalter. “I couldn’t live with that.”

Howe would stick with the Yankees for the next four seasons, showing intermittent flashes of his former dominance and avoiding an eighth suspension. His organization aided in his recovery, even giving him a job selling tickets in early 1995 while players were locked out due to a labor dispute so that he could continue to comply with the terms of his probation. After he pitched to a 6.35 ERA in 17 innings during the 1996 season, the Yankees released the 38-year-old. In some ways, being forced into retirement due to age and declining performance was a triumphantly extraordinary outcome for Howe in its ordinariness.

In 2006, Howe died at the age of 48 in a single-car crash. An autopsy revealed he had methamphetamine in his system at the time of the accident. It was a sad end for a man who had worked so hard for so long to keep his life on track. Perhaps that is Howe’s greatest legacy — a man who, despite scorn, ridicule, and ostracism, never stopped trying to live up to his potential, both as a ballplayer and as a person.


See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Texas Rangers lineup for March 10, 2026

SURPRISE, ARIZONA - MARCH 6: Brandon Nimmo #24 of the Texas Rangers takes the field during a Spring Training game against the Seattle Mariners at Surprise Stadium on March 6, 2026 in Surprise, Arizona. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Texas Rangers lineup for March 10, 2026 against the Chicago Cubs.

Another day, another spring training game. We have a lineup that has a lot of regulars in it. Jacob deGrom is the starting pitcher.

The lineup:

Nimmo — RF

Langford — CF

Seager — SS

Burger — 1B

Pederson — DH

McCutchen — LF

Jansen — C

Smith — 2B

Duran — 3B

3:05 p.m. Central start time.

Notes from the Washington Nationals locker room

PORT ST. LUCIE, FL - FEBRUARY 28: Jake Irvin #27 of the Washington Nationals pitches during the game between the Washington Nationals and the New York Mets at Clover Park on Saturday, February 28, 2026 in Port St. Lucie, Florida. (Photo by Lucas Casel/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

This morning I had the privilege of going into the Nationals locker room during their media availability time. I had the chance to talk to a few pitchers and they updated me on how their spring’s were going. It was very cool to be in there and the players gave thoughtful answers.

The first person I talked to was Brad Lord, who is entering a big season. Before he became a big leaguer, Lord famously worked at Home Depot in the offseason. While he does not have to do that anymore, he told me that not much has changed in his offseason routine. Lord told me that he had “The same throwing program and buildup time”. Luckily for him, he can now do that without shifts at Home Depot.

According to Lord, these throwing programs and workout routines are all done in communication with the team. That is something I thought to be the case, but it is cool to have that confirmed by a big leaguer. 

While there was a ton of change in the organization, the new regime did not make any major changes to his arsenal. He told me that he has a slightly different changeup grip, but this offseason was about “fine-tuning” his arsenal rather than making any radical changes. Sometimes pitchers don’t need to make radical changes, and that seems to be the team’s belief about Lord.

One person I was surprised to see in the locker room was Zack Littell. While he has not officially signed with the team yet, he is in the building. I had the chance to chat with him for a little bit, and he gave some really thoughtful answers. Once his signing is officially official, I can show you those quotes.

While Brad Lord made some smaller tweaks, Jake Irvin made some bigger changes. He said he has been “working on a lot of different things with the new staff”. Irvin also mentioned how it has been fun to see how the new staff member’s minds work. 

The biggest change he made was adding a sweeper. Irvin also talked about how he is “working to get the velo up”. Getting that velocity back to where it was in 2024 would be a game changer for Irvin. He lost over a tick on his fastball last season. In his first spring start his velocity was down even more. However, it was back to 2025 levels in his second start. 

Irvin hopes there is more in the tank as he continues to build up this spring. He said that his velocity was continuing to trend in the right direction during his bullpen on the backfields the other day. Irvin thinks that his new sweeper adds a different dimension to his arsenal. 

One interesting thing he told me was that he hopes to “Use my whole arsenal together to make swing decisions harder”. I really liked that quote and thought it showed a high level of pitching IQ. All of a pitcher’s pitches need to play off of each other in a way that makes each pitch better. Irvin is aware of that and it is something he wants to do in 2026.

The last pitcher I talked to was Drew Smith. He signed with the team on a Minor League deal, but the veteran has a good chance of making the team. Before undergoing Tommy John Surgery in the summer of 2024, he was a mainstay in the Mets bullpen.

Now, at 32 years old, he is a veteran in a young clubhouse. He admitted that this is not what he is used to, adding, “In New York it was more of a veteran group, and this group is definitely young, which is actually nice. I have never been considered an older guy, but here I am”. Smith also mentioned that the energy and vibes were good, which is something you would usually associate with a younger group.

On an individual level, it is clear that Smith is not totally satisfied, despite a pair of scoreless outings this spring. He is trying to get back to his pre-surgery level, but does not think he is there yet. 

One thing he brought up a couple times is that he is “moving a little too slowly for my liking”. That is not a saying I had heard before, but it makes sense. As a pitcher you need to be explosive, and Smith feels like he is not all the way back yet. His velocity is down about a tick, but given all the time he has missed, that is not surprising.

Smith told me he hopes to make four to five more appearances this spring and stressed that in-game action will help him get back up to speed. I actually wrote about Smith the other day, and mentioned how he may need a little bit of time in AAA to ramp up properly.

With these quotes, I definitely think he could use some time to get his feet wet again in professional baseball. He has missed a year and a half, so some rust is only natural. However, Smith’s stuff is really good, and he has shown that this spring, even if he is not totally himself yet. Smith is going to play a role in the Nats bullpen, though it might not be on Opening Day. 

He seems like a good veteran to have around, and I think he has plenty of gas left in the tank. Smith also mentioned he has been working on a couple new pitches. His slider has been much slower than it was pre-surgery, so I would not be surprised if that slider is actually a couple different shapes.

It was very cool to get his access, and the players were great. I am down in West Palm Beach for the next few days, so if you have any questions you think I should ask, comment down below.

2026 Atlanta Braves Positional Preview: Infield

Mar 7, 2026; North Port, Florida, USA; Atlanta Braves third baseman Austin Riley (27) runs the bases after hitting a home run against the Baltimore Orioles in the sixth inning during spring Training at CoolToday Park. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

When the Atlanta Braves were at their most dominant a few seasons ago, a lot of that success had to do with the fact that their infield was basically a machine. No matter where you looked in the lineup, it was tough to find an out when all of these guys were in there and clicking at the same time. Fortunately, most of that infield is still here but as time has marched on, questions have emerged.

Chief among those questions is whether or not we’ll ever see guys like Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson and Austin Riley reach the lofty heights of production that they achieved during the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Will Ha-Seong Kim return to form as well once he returns from injury? Where does Maurico Dubón fit in all of this once the Braves have their ideal lineup ready to go? How effective will the depth be and can the depth be trusted if the injury bug rears its ugly head once again? This is a group where success is just as likely as failure, which makes this crew a fascinating unit to talk and think about.


First Base

Assuming things stay the same as they were ever since his arrival ahead of the 2022 season, first base for the Atlanta Braves will once again be The Matt Olson Show. He put on a great show in 2025 and if he can deliver a repeat performance then that’ll be a pleasant development. Dating back to 2019, Olson has either had a “good season” or a “great season” without really chaining together two great seasons in a row.

For what it’s worth, most of the projection models are suggesting that Olson will in fact follow the pattern and put up simply a “good season” this time around — ZiPS is currently projecting that he’ll hit .250/.342/.468 with a .348 wOBA and 124 wRC+. Again, that’s a perfectly fine season for Olson to have but it’s also not anything that would have the eyes popping out of your head like a Looney Tunes character or anything like that.

There is a question as to whether or not new manager Walt Weiss will choose to follow in his predecessor’s steps and let Olson play all 162 if he fully desires or if he’ll try to encourage Olson to get some rest days in. If that’s the case, then that means that Dominic Smith (assuming he makes the squad) could see some time at first base for the Braves this season. The defense would certainly take a bit of a downturn with Smith at first base but he’s coming off of a season where he produced 111 wRC+ over 63 games while playing for the Giants, so hopefully he’d be able to produce a bit whenever called upon. If all goes well, he won’t be called upon that often since Olson is still likely to play the vast majority of games with a rest only coming on occasion instead of being a regular thing.

Second Base

Similarly to Matt Olson, if Ozzie Albies has his way then he’ll be playing every day. If he remains healthy then the main question will then become if the version of Ozzie that we’re going to see is closer to the one who was performing like a star in 2023 and 2021 or if we’re going to see the version that’s been scuffling about for the past couple of seasons.

While it’s tough to extrapolate World Baseball Classic performances to the Major League Baseball regular season, one thing that was very encouraging about Ozzie’s historic walk-off blast was the fact that he hit it from the left-hand side. If that’s going on then hopefully the wrist issues that played a role in his struggles last season are now long behind him and we’ll be back to seeing Ozzie playing at a pretty high level. That would require some over-performance according to the projections but at the same time, if Ozzie starts doing some real damage from the left side of the plate then that’ll answer a lot of questions when it comes to his immediate future during this upcoming season.

When it comes to the leather, Ozzie Albies hasn’t been known for his defense for a few seasons now. If he’s also in the lineup every day like he and Olson want to be, then that’ll just be something the Braves have to live with. If he’s taking some games off then one thing that could provide some solace is that the defense that’ll be provided by any of the players behind him on the depth chart should be better.

Brett Wisely is certainly not here for his bat so if he can serve as a reliable stand-in with solid defense then the Braves should be happy with what he can provide. Maurico Dubón can also play a very capable second base as well so I’d imagine that he’ll be a perfect candidate to give Ozzie a day of rest once Ha-Seong Kim comes back and gets settled at shortstop. Once again, if Ozzie stays healthy then the Braves are going to just roll with whatever he gives them unless it’s a complete disaster.

Shortstop

Speaking of Dubón and Kim, This is one spot where Atlanta’s depth will already be put to the test. Due to Ha-Seong Kim’s icy mishap during the winter, Dubón is now set to be the starting shortstop until Kim is healthy again. While Dubón should be decent for the Braves at SS, this also isn’t exactly ideal since Dubón would be much better utilized as a utility guy who can fill in at any spot on the diamond whenever needed instead of being an everyday player. Dubón will have to continue playing some good-to-great defense (he’s coming off of an absolute banger of a 20 OAA season in 2025) while he serves as the starting shortstop for Atlanta because it’s highly unlikely that he’s going to be doing any type of big bopping with the bat and seems like a shoo-in for the ninth spot in the order.

Once Kim does eventually return to the lineup, it is very clear that the Braves are banking on Kim returning to the form that he showed in his last fully healthy season in 2023. That was when he produced a wRC+ of 110 for the Padres alongside a .330 wOBA. Atlanta will be happy if he can get that wOBA back into the .300s in 2026 and they’ll be over the moon if it’s anywhere near .330 again. Kim when healthy is also a very solid defender as well — again, his 2023 season saw him put up 9 OAA and if he can return to anything even approaching that then things will be going well for Kim in Atlanta.

While Kim is gone, we should be seeing a fair amount of Jorge Mateo at shortstop as well. Mateo is a burner on the basepaths and that should make this coaching staff pretty happy to have him around since it’s been public knowledge that the Braves are certainly looking to get better as a baserunning team going forward. With that being said, his defense hasn’t really been something to get excited about since 2023 and you aren’t going to get a lot of pop out of his bat, either. If Dubón can stay healthy then Mateo will likely be utilized as a pinch-runner but if the injury bug strikes Dubón then Mateo will be pressed into action and we’ll just have to hope for the best from the former Orioles utilityman.

Third Base

I wrote about it earlier during spring training and it bears repeating: The Braves need Austin Riley to return to star status if they’re going to have any real aspirations of being serious contenders in 2026. When the Braves were at their best during this current era, Austin Riley was playing a major part in that success. Injuries derailed a lot of Atlanta’s dreams of success for the past couple of seasons and Riley got swept up in that mess as well.

So it’s definitely lovely to hear that Riley is reportedly feeling good and ready to contribute for the upcoming season. As of right now, ZiPS is currently projecting for Riley to be a 120 wRC+ hitter alongside .344 wOBA and a .262/.325/.477 slash line. If he can combine that with some good defense then his production should be something that is approaching the Halcyon days of when Riley was performing like an elite third baseman. If the defense is not there then he’s still got a long way to go since he finished with a wRC+ as high as 144 during that particular run.

No matter what, Riley will have to be healthy (and produce) if the Braves are going to get it done this season since there isn’t a lot behind Riley in case things go sideways again. Nacho Alvarez Jr. is still just 22 but it’s tough to foresee him suddenly turning into a dangerous hitter going forward. His dinger during the WBC was encouraging enough but it is still one of those things where you’d have to squint to believe any scenario that results in Nacho being a feared hitter. Dubón and Mateo may also receive some time here if Riley’s not in there every day and this could also be where we see a Kyle Farmer sighting as well. Both corners of Atlanta’s infield are going to heavily depend on their current starters to stay healthy and produce if the Braves are going to return to where they want to be this season.


Again, I really hate to harp on the whole “health” thing but with a group of guys who are used to playing every day, that is absolutely the key here. I’m not going to go as far as to say that this group of players staying healthy will result in another 100-win season but I will say that the Braves will need this starting core to stay on the field if they’re going to be in the Postseason conversation again.

The depth is better than it was last season and it’ll already be put to the test since Ha-Seong Kim may not be around until May at the earliest. Mauricio Dubón is a good addition to the squad but we likely won’t see him reach his full potential until he’s back to being utilized as a utilityman instead of an everyday player. As long as Dubón can keep the boat afloat at shortstop and the other three starting infielders can get clicking then this particular part of the team should be fine. That’s a big ol’ “should,” though.

Photos of the week: 3.2.2026

Margo’s photos from one of the baseball games against UIC take the stage this week! The Tigers swept the Flames in the four-game series at home. The first two games were won by one run each and the last two were shutouts. Here are the photos of the week!

Fun fact about me: I grew up a huge fan of Cardinals baseball despite being from the heart of Wrigleyville. My high school is also just across the highway from UIC, so it was really cool to see these two teams play each other. As my favorite players retired I stopped following St. Louis as closely, but I still have a love for watching baseball. Getting photos of the pitcher pitching and the batter batting are pretty easy things to do considering they’re repetitive actions, but fielding is a bit more difficult because you have to be in just the right position at just the right time to get good photos. I love that in the first photo we can see second baseman Eric Maisonet watching the ball before it gets to his glove while UIC’s Vidal Colon slides headfirst into second and I love the second photo for showing the tag, although it was too late.

Like I mentioned earlier, it’s guaranteed that you’re able to get a photo of the pitcher pitching during a baseball game. That being said, just because a photo is “guaranteed” doesn’t mean it’s always done well, but I think this one is. There’s a lot of different angles you can get with pitcher photos because they’ll always be in the same spot, but side profiles like this one Margo got of Josh McDevitt warming up pregame really appeal to me. I like that she chose to shoot this from this side because we’re able to see his glove, face, jersey and arm without anything being blocked like it would be if she had tried to get this same shot from the opposite side.

Same idea with this photo; it’s easy to get photos of the batter but not always easy to make them good, or in this case to be already focusing on the batter as he bunts (unless you know enough about baseball strategy to know when a bunt is likely to happen). Because swings are more common than bunts, a photo like this stands out more to me than the average swinging photo, sometimes regardless of whether or not the batter makes contact unless it’s a big play that has a strong impact on the game.

Here we have another photo of Maisonet, this time with him presumably throwing the ball to the pitcher after the end of a play. It may not be the most lively or exciting photo, but I appreciate the fact that Margo decided to take this photo at all because it’s technically a “quieter” moment. I also love Maisonet’s expression, his eyes tracking the ball and the way his fingers twist from the throw.

Somewhat similar to the first photos, here we have a photo of first baseman Tyler Macon receiving a throw to try to pick off the runner at first. I like this photo even more than the earlier ones because we can see Macon watching as the ball reaches his glove and the runner diving for first base in the background, in addition to the word “Tigers” being framed in the background. It’s a really nice composition and Margo had a great angle for this play!

For our last photo, we have this shot of Cameron Benson celebrating toward the Tigers’ dugout after advancing to second base. Without an extremely long lens, this is about as tight as we can go on baseball players to get their reactions. Honestly, as much as I want to see more of Benson’s face here, I really think the wider shot showing his full body provides some important context to the image that gives it just a bit more interest.

Margo will be covering some more baseball as well as softball this weekend so be sure to keep an eye out for that! Come back next week for some more outtakes from the semester’s coverage so far!

Mets option Jonah Tong to Triple-A Syracuse

The Mets optioned right-handed pitcher Jonah Tong to Triple-A Syracuse on Tuesday morning. 

There are 63 players remaining in big league camp.

Tong made two starts for the Mets this spring (one in Grapefruit League play and one against Team Nicaragua), while featuring his cutter -- a new pitch in his arsenal. He pitched well in his one Grapefruit League start until allowing a three-run home run on his final pitch of the outing.

This was an expected move for the Mets, as Tong was the odd man out in a fully healthy rotation that will feature Freddy Peralta, Nolan McLean, Clay Holmes, Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, and David Peterson

Tong also likely needs more innings in the minors, as his five-game stint with the Mets at the tail end of last season resulted in a 7.71 ERA.

The right-hander is using that five-game stint as a learning experience, which could prove useful if and when Tong is called up to make an impact in the majors in 2026.

"Baseball is a complicated game," Tong said. "It’s my favorite, obviously, but it can be a roller coaster. I think the main thing that I want to take into it from what I learned last year is just how to stay neutral in all of it.

"Because at the end of the day, you’re gonna have days where you’re going to absolutely carve, and other days you’re going to get your teeth kicked in. And being able to stay the same person through it all is probably the most important thing."

2026 Chicago Cubs player profiles: Ryan Rolison

Ryan Perry Rolison was born in Jackson, TN 28 years ago. The 6’2” left-hander toiled for Colorado for four years before joining the Cubs, making little impact in the Major Leagues prior to coming to Chicago.

The data from three innings of Spring Training ball don’t point to his continuing any further north than Des Moines in the near future — he’s given up a home run and six earned runs so far. He’ll likely get more mound time but the signs are not auspicious at present.

This is in line with his career so far. He was a first-round pick (#22), too, by the Rockies in 2018. The Cubs are the third team to acquire Rolison over the winter, as he was previously acquired from Atlanta by the White Sox.

Rolison pitched 42.1 innings for the Rockies in 2025. His 7.02 ERA attests to his habit of throwing the gopher ball. He allowed 11 long flies in those 42.1 innings.

He has a good arm but I’m not sure what the Cubs expect from him. His numbers are alarmingly bad. He gives up a ton of hits, walks more men than most pitchers.

It wouldn’t be a complete surprise if he was DFA’d. But Iowa needs pitching, too. He has the four pitches — fastball, slider, curve, change, and his mid-90s FB velocity is not so bad. But something clearly is ‘off’.

Andrew Painter’s fastball shape is a worry. Here’s why.

CLEARWATER, FL - MARCH 07: Philadelphia Phillies Pitcher Andrew Painter (76) delivers a pitch to the plate during the spring training game between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Philadelphia Phillies on March 07, 2026 at BayCare Ballpark in Clearwater, Florida. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

This past Saturday was Andrew Painter’s second start of the spring and if you looked at a box score, you’d be rather happy with the results. Three innings pitched in which he gave up no runs, even against a depleted Blue Jays lineup, is cause for optimism that corners are being turned in his development. However, scour the various pitch modeling “experts” that exist and you’d come away with a different point of view of what he pitched like.

Even with the results that showed Painter didn’t excel with under the hood metrics, he still did not allow a run, the ultimate goal of pitching. Yet pair that with his first spring start and you’ll start to see a pattern forming.

Postgame, Painter talked about his outing and noted that his fastball command was not there during his start, nor were many of his pitches.

“I didn’t have my best stuff today,” Painter said. “Four-pitch walk to start, kind of go into a hole, but you’ve got to go out there and compete and get yourself out of it. I thought I made some good pitches. I thought the spin was good. I would love to get the changeup going a little bit, but you’ve got to take what you’re given that day and work with it.”

It’s part of his maturation as a starting pitcher in the major leagues, that he would be able to go through situations like that and be able to come out on the other side with a decent outing. For a spring start, that’s both encouraging and concerning at the same time. Going back to those pitch modeling “experts”, both posts that are given talk about Painter’s lacking good fastball “shape”, something that could be a death knell for some pitchers. This is where, despite his putting up another shortened start of 0’s on the board, there is an underlying concern with his season might unfold. But what exactly are they talking about when it comes to Painter’s “fastball shape”? Let’s explore.

The first thing to understand is that when people are talking about said shape, they’re focusing more on the four seam fastball. Induced vertical break (IVB) is a fastball’s vertical movement, only without gravity, “rising” as it approaches the plate even though we know that the concept of gravity will not allow that. Pitches with good IVB are going to arrive at home plate from the vantage point of looking like it is not moving downwards as it is supposed to and induces more swings either underneath or on the bottom half of the ball, leading to whiffs or easily caught fly balls. Fastballs that have an IVB of 16 inches would be something we would consider average, so anything above is great, anything below is going to be an issue. That may not seem like a lot, but as the old axiom goes, baseball is a game of inches. One of Andrew Painter’s biggest strengths as a prospect was that he was able to combine upper tier fastball velocity with above average IVB to create an elite fastball that he could use in the upper quadrants of the strike zone, meaning he missed barrels and bats.

Post-Tommy John surgery, that pitch and the form that it was in is now missing. Seeing these pitch model experts talk about fastball shape concern with Painter might be startling at first, but it’s nothing new that it’s current shape is something that is now a bug in his pitching profile’s ointment. Matt Winkelman noted this in his write up this offseason:

The problems start with Painter’s four seam fastball. Once an elite pitch before the injury, it was a liability by the end of the season. Predictably for a pitcher ramping back up from not pitching for two years, he gradually lost a little bit of velocity month over month. His arm slot also changed, and it led to less vertical movement. Since Painter’s height is never going to give him good attack angle on the pitch, the loss of movement led to it being very hittable in the strike zone.

It’s also something that Jarrett Seidler noted when doing his writeups on the Phillies’ system for Baseball Prospectus:

His fastball shape is just straight up worse; he’s lost nearly an inch and a half of vert while his release traits have been all over the place, and ultimately got more generic as the season went along. He doesn’t spot the pitch nearly as well as he used to or scrape triple digits as much, and the pre-surgery vs. post-surgery differences in whiff generation are drastic. Based solely on 2025, he looks like a sinker-primary candidate, and the old reports of a guy with a 70 four-seamer don’t match up.

Again, these are reports one does not want to see when discussing the team’s top pitching prospect and likely candidate for a rotation spot in 2026. Both of them talk about Painter’s changes from when he was actually pitching, but without some numbers to look at and compare ourselves, it can be difficult to just accept as gospel. So, it’s best to compare apples to apples and look at Painter pre- and post-surgery.

Using Robert Orr’s amazing work, we can compare Painter’s fastball shape from when he pitched in Clearwater in 2022, when we have available Statcast data for him, and the majority of his season in 2025 in Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

Metrics20222025
IVB (in.)16.915.5
HB (in.)-3.8-5.5
VAA5.125.35
Velocity (mph)96.996.9
SwStr (%)228.6

This is what we call confirmation of the scouting reports. While the maintaining of velocity, or at least his getting back to his pre-surgery levels is great, there are two things that jump out. The first is the loss of the ability to induce swinging strikes with the pitch. Even with a fastball that averages in the upper nineties, touching 100+, even Triple-A hitters are going to be able to square it up if it is flat. This leads to the aforementioned concerns both from the scouting reports and the data from which they are partially based: the loss of vertical movement is very real and very much an issue. Without getting that ride on his fastball that he used to such success when he started pitching professionally, he’s going to start seeing major league hitters take that pitch and do more damage with it.

Now, when using that earlier data point of 15 inches of IVB being average, this may not seem like a big deal. After, with that starting point in mind, the IVB on Painter’s fastball seems like something that we would consider to be decent. Yet let’s consider some major league data. Using Baseball Savant, we can do a league-wide search for pitches that have Painter’s current velocity and shape from the spring and see how batters fared against them in 2025. So, let’s set the parameters: fastball velocity between 95 and 97 miles per hour with vertical movement that is between 15 and 17 inches.

The average wOBA against that type of pitch in 2025: .379.

Were Painter to be able to add even a few tenths of an inch of induced vertical break, changing the search to between 17 and 18 inches, maintaining the same velocity, the average wOBA against that type of pitch is much more palatable: .317.

To put it into player terms, that’s the difference between the batter being Juan Soto and Trevor Larnach.

Another thing that was pointed out to me by Matt Winkelman was the loss of cut on his fastball as well. We were discussing this topic and he noted that at it’s best, Painter’s four seam fastball has cutting action to it as well as near elite IVB. Both of those things went backwards, hence the concern for what that fastball shape is looking like these past two starts. He also noted that at times, Statcast is thrown for a loop by classifying his sinker as a four-seam as well, causing some of the data to be a bit wonky, but I wonder if that happened enough to influence the numbers that much.

The lack of induced vertical break on his four-seam fastball, or at least the drop in Painter’s data, and loss of the natural cut he was leaning towards having is going to be an issue for him once he finally does ascend to the major leagues. A fastball with these characteristics is akin to the one that needs above average to elite secondaries to let him get away with it and Painter simply is not there yet. We can douse some of this panic by understanding that we basing all of this concern on two spring starts, lest people get too overly worried. The team was focusing a lot this offseason on making sure that Painter’s arm slot was getting back to where it was, which may have led to some of the issues he had with his fastball in 2025. If that gets “fixed”, and by the sounds of it, it has, the team can then move on to the next part of concern that surrounds his fastball and see if they can get that pitch to jump a little bit more. Because as the numbers show, if his fastball continues on with its current shape and form, he’s going to have to rely either more on his sinker (which isn’t really that much better) or his secondaries to consistently get major league hitters out.

Not exactly the news one wants to hear about their top pitching prospect.