For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Player to hit a HR
Chance
Juan Soto
24%
Pete Crow-Armstrong
20%
Cal Raleigh
20%
💲Today's HR parlay
104.2x
Home run prediction: Juan Soto (27%)
Juan Soto is a strong home run target thanks to his current batted-ball profile. The New York Mets slugger has gone deep twice over the last week while posting a 57.1% hard-hit rate and 24.4% barrel rate.
His 24.4-degree average launch angle has also translated into a massive 64.3% fly-ball rate, giving him plenty of lift.
Anthony Molina has allowed two homers over his last three appearances and plenty of air contact recently, while the San Francisco Giants bullpen is not untouchable.
Soto has multiple paths to leave Citi Field.
Play this pick down to 28%.
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: SNY, NBC Sports Bay Area
Home run prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong (26%)
Pete Crow-Armstrong continues to show why he belongs in the NL MVP conversation. The slugger has smacked six home runs over his last six games while posting an eye-popping .667 ISO.
PCA has a 55% fly-ball rate during that span, and 54.5% of those fly balls have left the yard. That is not a typo. He also owns a 30% barrel rate over the last week, showing he is consistently squaring up the baseball.
Ryan Gusto has had home run issues at times this season, and the Miami Marlins’ relief corps has also given up 1.23 HR/9 over its last 22 frames.
PCA has two clear paths to another bomb.
Play this pick up to 25%.
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Marlins.TV, Marquee Sports Network
Home run prediction: Cal Raleigh (20%)
Cal Raleigh is finally coming alive. He's slugged six long balls in his last 11 appearances with a loud .513 ISO. Raleigh homered on Friday evening, his second bomb in his previous three contests.
Tonight's matchup is also favorable. He'll face Jeffrey Springs, who sports an ERA well over six. The left-hander has also allowed a horrendous 3.86 HR/9 across his last two outings, with a fair share of fly balls.
Raleigh is consistently putting the ball in the air as well.
Play up to 25%.
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Mariners.TV, NBC Sports Bay Area
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 18-94, -10.89 units
Best home run combo for September 5
Juan Soto
Trade Now 102.2x
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Cal Raleigh
Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Sep 4, 2026; New York City, New York, USA; San Francisco Giants first baseman Rafael Devers (16) hits a three run home run in the eighth inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The Giants out hit the Mets 12 to 9, and outwalked them 6 to 4. They had 14 opportunities with at least one runner in scoring position with four hits; the Mets had just two in eight. San Francisco had one Rafael Devers, who went 3-for-4 with 5 RBIs, New York had no Devers.
What the Mets had, in outscoring the Giants 10 to 6, were homers. Five of them. And, as us baseball-savvy people know, homers are a good way to score runs. Guaranteed, ya know? One swing, one run at least. Efficient. Quick, majestic sparks that momentarily defy the rules of the world that keep us all earth bound, that force the opposing team to crane their necks and visibly deflate as it rises.
Four batters into the bottom half of the 1st inning, Mark Vientos put New York up by three runs, and the recently re-inflated Giants were back to losing air.
By the end of the 2nd, things had gotten worse. The Mets were up by 7. Francisco Alvarez back-spun a Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson four-seamer over the right field wall with one out. A walk, a balk, and fielding error by Christian Koss (a real 2026 special) set the table for another run to score on a fielder’s choice before Bo Bichette showed another baseball the door.
That long ball proved to be the decisive coup. Seven runs in — a total that proved out of reach despite the Giants offense putting up a fight against starter Nolan McLean through the middle frames. The fact that McLean had a sweat going, that his adrenaline coursed out of him in one throat-straining, expletive-laced holler of triumph when he froze Christian Koss to end the 6th, as if he just fanned Shohei Ohtani with the bases-loaded in the NLCS, is a testament to the offense’s prickliness.
The adjective “spunk” was used in the broadcast booth to describe the fight of this young, ragtag group: Rafy Devers and the Boys. This kind of outburst from a man who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since June. McLean strolled onto the mound Friday night having allowed just two runs over his last four starts (25 IP). He had completed six innings in 12 of his last 13 starts, and yet the Giants bats, even down five runs, were under his skin. They made him work. At least two runners reached base in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th innings. The right-hander needed 30 pitches to get through the 3rd. Turner Hill was a pest. He couldn’t figure out a way to retire Devers, who walked in the 1st, led-off the 5th with a double, and scored two with a double in the 3rd.
The offense had McLean in the pot. Things simmered, just never boiled. Jung Hoo Lee was a factor there.
Previous trips to the Big City, Lee’s performances had sports writers giddy with Broadway puns: Lee on the marquee; Lee in lights; Lee belting out the hits. I took it a step further after a power outburst in Yankee Stadium, suggesting his bat somehow dictated the barometric pressure over the Bronx. On his last trip to Flushing, Lee collected seven hits over a three game series.
Not so on Friday night. His at-bats didn’t ratchet up the pressure, they let it dissipate. They didn’t bring the storm for the Giants, rather quelled it for the Mets.
Batting with two on and two out in the 3rd (a split he’s hitting over .300 in), Lee rolled a ground ball to second to end the inning. In the 5th, with the bases loaded and nobody out, a situation primed for Lee’s contact skills to shine, McLean three-pitched him. Perhaps expecting McLean’s devastating and deceptive “no-hump” curveball, Lee ended up watching two sinkers zip by right over the middle of the plate Three pitches later Drew Cavanaugh rolled into a rally-killing double play. Facing lefty reliever Jefry Yan in the 7th, he fanned again with runners on.
That’s seven stranded in total for Lee. The team collectively would leave 11 on base. Unproductive outs kill: they struck out 11 times, compared to New York’s 4.
Devers’ RBI double would be the only runs against McLean. He’d deliver the only other significant swing for San Francisco five innings later in the 8th when his 8-pitch scruff with Austin Warren ended with another baseball deposited in the bleachers.
But that was all that could be mustered. San Francisco peaked at six runs, laboriously building and rebuilding momentum, while New York jumped out ahead and never had to look back. Their offense front-loaded their work against Wilkinson, and against a respectable Yunior Marte (3 ER, 5 IP), lazily extended their lead with ho-hum homers from Francisco Lindor and Alvarez in the 6th and 8th.
Devers’s two run double, his three run homer —it was all just catch-up. Despite the obvious will he exerted on the field — picking a tough, in-between hop in an attempt to start a desperately needed double play; swearing at himself in the dugout after being retired for the first, and only time; fouling off pitch-after-2-strike-pitch against Warren, reacting to each offering “missed” by slapping his helmet to his thigh, chastising the barrel of his bat — the red-hot vet could only make up ground, not pull his team level. One swing can only do so much when you’re fighting gravity, a fight the Giants were in since the 1st, and have been in for months now.
The Cleveland Guardians (59%) have beaten up on sub .500 teams this season, posting a strong 46-32 record when they host the Detroit Tigers.
With a more in-form offense and a high-end starting pitcher taking the mound, my Tigers vs. Guardians predictions and MLB picks are backing Cleveland to clinch a series victory with another win tonight.
Who will win Tigers vs Guardians today: Cleveland Guardians (60%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
To say the Detroit Tigers are struggling against left-handed pitching would be an understatement.
They’ve hit just .219 over the past month while striking out more than 25% of the time. Their advanced numbers are equally as alarming, with the offense sitting 29th in xwOBA.
Now they draw Parker Messick, who ranks in the 98th percentile in Pitching Run Value. Not a great spot to get off the mat.
The Cleveland Guardians slot eighth in xwOBA against lefties the last 30 days, and showed the ability to get to Detroit’s bullpen in two come-from-behind wins Friday.
Back the Guardians to 61%.
COVERS INTEL: Messick's 91st percentile barrel rate should play extremely well against a Tigers lineup sitting last in barrel% vs. lefties over the last month.
Tigers vs Guardians Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (58%)
Messick is a tough nut to crack for any offense, but he’s made life especially miserable when facing poor offenses.
He has faced eight Bottom-10 teams in OPS vs. lefties. The results are remarkably good, with Messick allowing two runs or less in all eight.
I don’t see Detroit scoring much in this spot, which puts a lot of pressure on the Guardians.
Framber Valdez is an elite ground ball generator, and his barrel rate has improved to 5.1% over the past 30 days.
He shouldn’t give up much power, making the Under attractive up to 60%.
Tigers vs Guardians home run prediction: Jo Adell (17%)
Jo Adell crushes left-handed pitching. He has managed a .278 ISO and .949 OPS this year, and his numbers are trending even further upwards.
He has hit .342 with a .368 ISO and 19.2% barrel rate against southpaws over his last 25 games. Those outputs are out of this world.
Adell also has a great track record against Valdez, going 7-25 (.280 BA) with five extra-base hits.
Valdez’ high-ground ball rate does not scare me in this matchup.
Todd Cordell's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 99-90, -11.48 units
Over/Under bets: 95-88-6, -5.27 units
Tigers vs Guardians weather
Temperatures are expected to sit in the low 70s with winds blowing in. Advantage to the pitchers.
Tigers vs Guardians odds
Moneyline: Tigers 42% | Guardians 59%
Run line: Tigers +1.5 (61%) | Guardians -1.5 (40%)
Over/Under: Over 7.5 (48%) | Under 7.5 (53%)
Tigers vs Guardians trend
Cleveland has won nine of the past 13 games (+3.90 units, 20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Guardians.
How to watch Tigers vs Guardians and game info
Location
Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Date
Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026
First pitch
6:10 p.m. ET
TV
FOX
Tigers starting pitcher
Framber Valdez (8-10, 4.36 ERA)
Guardians starting pitcher
Parker Messick (11-8, 2.46 ERA)
Tigers vs Guardians latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 04: Francisco Alvarez #4 of the New York Mets hits a solo home run against the San Francisco Giants during the eighth inning at Citi Field on September 04, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Caean Couto/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Meet the Mets
The Amazins opened a series against one of the few teams in the National League with a worse record than them in the San Francisco Giants, and they proved to be the superior mediocre team in game one with a 10-6 victory. Nolan McLean tossed six innings while giving up just two runs, and the Mets’ bats slugged a whopping five homers—including two from Francisco Alvarez.
NEW YORK, NY - AUGUST 26: Michael Fulmer #43 of the New York Yankees pitches during the game against the Houston Astros at Yankee Stadium on August 26, 2026 in New York, New York. (Photo by New York Yankees/Getty Images) | Getty Images
As the Yankees enter the season’s final month, a bullpen that’s been a strength throughout the year is running on fumes. Injuries to Fernando Cruz and Kervin Castro have further strained an already thin unit, forcing the Yankees to get creative in adding some veteran talent from outside their organization for the stretch run.
As I do each month in a given season, I’m going to take a look at the Yankees’ relievers to identify how manager Aaron Boone is deploying each and offer a verdict as to how much trust we can place in them moving forward using the following ranking system:
5: As confident as one can be in a reliever, the most fickle position in baseball
4: High degree of confidence, but some trepidation remains
3: Glass half full or glass half empty? The choice is yours
2: Major concerns here, though perhaps a glimmer of hope
1: Absolute zero — usually reserved for those with a minimal track record
Statistics below are from August 6-September 2.
The Closer
David Bednar
Recent stats: 10.2 IP, 3.38 ERA, 11 SO, 1.60 FIP, 6 Saves (in 7 opportunities)
After a couple of days off and with the rest of the bullpen gassed, Bednar came in to eat the eighth inning of what was then a 7-1 blowout at the hands of the Angels on Monday. He allowed three runs, inflating his stats in garbage time. The right-hander allowed only one other earned run all August, though, cementing his status as one of the game’s most reliable closers.
No one in baseball has finished more games than Bednar’s 50 this year, and he’s done it while blowing just three saves. He isn’t as flashy as some of the game’s other elite late-inning arms, but he’s been as effective as any of them.
The Set-Up Men
Brent Headrick
Recent stats: 12 IP, 4.50 ERA, 18 SO, 2.76 FIP
It’s been a choppier month than we’ve seen before from Headrick this year. Opponents hit .345 with a 1.015 OPS against him in August, a red flag for a pitcher who’s made the second-most appearances in baseball. Still, even after his uneven stretch, the southpaw’s ERA sits below 2.00.
Headrick has shown enough to receive the benefit of the doubt here. Especially after the injury to Cruz, who was among MLB’s most-used relievers before his injury, fatigue is a legitimate concern. But in a tight AL East race, expect Boone to continue deploying his fireman in big spots.
Paul Blackburn
Recent stats: 15.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 14 SO, 2.27 FIP
It’s been a rapid ascent for Blackburn, who began the season as the last man out of the bullpen and is now one of Boone’s most trusted relievers. He hasn’t skipped a beat since moving into a high-leverage role, allowing no earned runs across his last 16 appearances dating back to late July.
Like other Yankees reclamation projects before him, Blackburn has been able to leverage his sinker into a skyrocketing ground ball rate. There’s no reason at this point to believe the tweaks he’s made are not sustainable.
The Middle Relievers
Michael Fulmer
Recent stats: 3.2 IP, 4.91 ERA, 4 SO, 6.10 FIP
A week and change ago, Fulmer was out of a job after the Angels cut him loose. Now, he’s the Yankees’ new shiny toy, with the New York Post’s Joel Sherman relaying that the team feels they saw things in his video that other teams missed. With a dearth of options, he’s been thrown right into the fire. The early results have not been encouraging.
Confidence level: 2
Fulmer has only made four appearance for the Yankees, so it’s too soon to say how valuable he will be. Any return to form would be a remarkable comeback for the 33-year-old, who’s appeared only sporadically in MLB since 2023.
Formerly ol’ reliable in this column, Hill’s stock took a major hit after a disastrous run from mid-May through mid-July in which he allowed 18 runs in 18 innings. He’s been better since, deployed strategically in mostly in lower-leverage spots.
Confidence level: 3
Hill is not a back-end reliever, and that should be OK. The crafty lefty still serves a useful role, particularly against lefty batters, who are hitting .205 with a .575 OPS against him this year.
Recent stats: 8.2 IP, 3.12 ERA, 5 SO, 3.33 FIP (with Kansas City and New York)
Another new kid on the block, Schreiber made his Yankees debut on Tuesday, pitching a clean ninth to close out a victory against the Angels. The 32-year-old brings with him a long track record of steady bullpen performance, including this season. Schreiber posted a 3.65 ERA and 117 ERA+ in 56 appearances with Kansas City before they placed him on waivers as they drifted out of contention.
Confidence level: 2.5
Some of Schreiber’s underlying metrics — including a .254 BABIP and 36:22 K:BB ratio with Kansas City — are cause for concern. Still, considering the Yankees got him for nothing, he’s a quality pickup given the slim pickings at this point in the season.
Yarbrough has been something of a shadow starter for most of the season, appearing once a week or so to pitch multiple innings in relief and then retreating to obscurity in the bullpen. A four-run blowup against the Red Sox last week jumped his season ERA nearly a half-run, underscoring the limits of his bag of tricks.
Come playoff time, Yarbrough should only be seeing action if a game is out of hand. He’s been a perfectly serviceable placeholder this year, helping eat innings in a bullpen that’s seen its high performers used frequently.
The Mop-Up Man
Luis Gil
Recent stats: 9.1 IP, 0.96 ERA, 12 SO (including minor leagues)
Gil’s wilderness period is over. After a disastrous start to the year for the Yankees and nearly four months spent on the IL, the team decided to bring their former Rookie of the Year back in a relief role. He tossed 7.1 scoreless innings across five appearances in the minors, and he made his return to the big leagues last Monday, allowing one run in two innings of work.
Gil’s is such a bizarre case that it’s difficult to place any stock in him. While unquestionably talented, the 27-year-old has endured consecutive lost seasons. Until he can prove otherwise, his superlative 2024 campaign is the clear outlier. Time will tell if he can reinvent himself in his new role.
The New York Mets are priced as a heavy 64% moneyline favorite for today's game at Citi Field against the San Francisco Giants, with Zac Thornton on the hill.
With Thornton consistently inducing weak contact, my Giants vs. Mets predictions are eyeing New York to grab their third straight victory.
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Zac Thornton has been excellent for the New York Mets, giving them a strong starting point tonight. Across his last 11 1/3 innings, the rookie owns a 2.91 FIP while holding opponents to a 28.6% hard-hit rate and 2.9% barrel rate.
The San Francisco Giants are in respectable offensive form, but they have struggled badly against left-handers, posting an 85 wRC+ this season.
Anthony Molina has held his own lately with a 3.80 xERA over his last two outings, but he does not typically work deep.
That brings the Giants’ bullpen in early, and the Mets’ offense owns a 103 wRC+ recently after scoring 20 runs over its last two games.
New York has the edge.
Play up to 65%.
COVERS INTEL: Thornton has walked just1.80 batters per nine innings at home this season, showing stronger command than his 2.53 road BB/9. That control should matter against a Giants lineup that is vulnerable vs lefties.
Giants vs Mets Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (55%)
I’m leaning Over 7.5 here, even with San Francisco’s issues against left-handed pitching.
Both offenses are sitting slightly above league average lately, and New York’s lineup has clearly woken up. The Mets also get an early look at Molina before San Francisco’s bullpen is forced into action.
Neither relief corps is falling apart, with New York posting a 3.87 FIP over its last 44 innings and San Francisco sitting in a similar range recently.
However, at 7.5, the number is low enough for one productive Mets night to carry this Over.
Play this pick up to 58%.
Giants vs Mets home run prediction: Juan Soto (27%)
The slugger has posted loud numbers lately, smacking two homers in the last week with a 57.1% hard-hit rate and 24.4% barrel rate. On top of that, his average launch angle during that span sits at 24.4 degrees.
That has translated to an impressive 64.3% FB rate, and Molina has allowed two bombs in his last three appearances. The righty has also allowed 56% of his contact through the air in the last two weeks, and the Giants' pen isn't untouchable, either.
Play down to 28%.
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 65-74, -18.19 units
Over/Under bets: 76-59, +5.56 units
Giants vs Mets weather
Weather at Citi Field looks clean for first pitch, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures falling from 80°F to 76°F. Winds sit around 8–9 mph, and rain chances are minimal at 0–2%. No delay concerns, with mostly neutral hitting conditions.
Giants vs Mets odds
Moneyline: Giants 37% | Mets 64%
Run line: Giants +1.5 (56%) | Mets -1.5 (45%)
Over/Under: Over 7.5 (54%) | Under 7.5 (45%)
Giants vs Mets trend
The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 35 games (+7.00 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Mets.
How to watch Giants vs Mets and game info
Location
Citi Field, Queens, NY
Date
Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026
First pitch
4:10 p.m. ET
TV
NBCSBA, SNY
Giants starting pitcher
Anthony Molina (2-0, 3.77 ERA)
Mets starting pitcher
Zac Thornton (3-4, 2.93 ERA)
Giants vs Mets latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Los Angeles, - September 04: Shohei Ohtani, left, with Starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto #18 of the Los Angeles Dodgers as they look on from the bench against the Washington Nationals in the eighth inning of a baseball game at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles on Friday, September 4, 2026. (Photo by Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images) | MediaNews Group via Getty Images
Shohei Ohtani has missed the last two games, just the second time he’s been out for multiple games with the Dodgers, along with a two-game stint on the paternity list in April 2025. But it looks like Ohtani will probably miss Saturday as well, which would mark his longest absence since coming to Los Angeles.
Kyle Tucker homered in the sixth inning on Friday, just his third home run at Dodger Stadium this season, and his first since June 15 against the Tampa Bay Rays. Tucker went 33 full games and 113 plate appearances between home home runs, hitting .177/.306/.195 with seven RBI between long balls at Dodger Stadium.
Torre’s podcast was a good overview of some well-worn territory, including how the Dodgers ownership group led by Walter bought the team in 2012, and landed an historic $8.35 billion television contract with Time Warner.
It's another full slate of games across the Majors, and I've pinpointed three quality picks in my MLB player props analysis.
I'm eyeing Martin Perez to carve up a divisional rival, while Jacob deGrom should find his best once again in Arlington, and Alex Bregman also gets a solid matchup as he looks to keep swinging a hot bat.
Atlanta Braves lefty Martin Perez has been holding it down lately. While his underlying metrics suggest otherwise, the veteran owns a 1.86 ERA across his last two starts.
In fact, he's also allowed one earned run or fewer in five of his last six appearances. One difficult outing during that span inflated his xERA, but Perez has looked dominant in recent starts.
Perez has allowed minimal barrels, and he already tossed six scoreless innings against the Philadelphia Phillies earlier this season.
Play up to -140.
Time: 6:05 p.m. ET
Where to watch: BravesVision, NBC Sports Philadelphia
Jacob deGrom Under 1.5 earned runs (+111)
Jacob deGrom has had issues at times this season, but when he's at home, the righty has been utterly dominant. The Texas Rangers starter owns a 2.13 FIP at Globe Life Field this season.
Two of deGrom's last three home outings were scoreless gems, and he also allowed just one earned run in the other. The former Cy Young winner will now face a Tampa Bay Rays lineup that is in very poor offensive form, compiling an 85 wRC+ across the last week.
Expect another gem from the 38-year-old.
Play down to +100.
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Rays.TV, RSN
Alex Bregman Over 1.5 total bases (+147)
The Chicago Cubs' offense is hot in general, and Alex Bregman is playing a massive part. The third baseman has a ridiculous .692 ISO and .423 average over his last six contests.
Of his 11 hits during that span, eight have been for extra bases. He's smacked three doubles and five home runs. Bregman has cashed the Over in total bases in four of his previous five games.
Bregman faces Ryan Gusto tonight, who has a vulnerable 4.54 xERA over the last month. The Miami Marlins pen is also shaky at the moment.
The slugger will stay hot.
Play down to +110.
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Marlins.TV, Marquee Sports Network
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
Prop picks: 12-9, +2.80
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
SCOTTSDALE, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 17: Manager Tony Vitello #23 at Scottsdale Stadium on February 17, 2026 in Scottsdale, Arizona. (Photo by Andy Kuno/San Francisco Giants/Getty Images) | Getty Images
On Friday, the San Francisco Giants announced their tentative 2027 Spring Training schedule. “Tentative” is not their word choice. They just opted for a straight up Spring Training schedule.
“Tentative” is my word choice, because friends … there probably ain’t gonna be a Spring Training. Or at least, it probably won’t be in spring.
A lockout is looming, and I’ll (happily) eat my shoe if it’s resolved in time for there to be a standard, as scheduled Spring Training. The caveat to there is that you all have to pay me to watch me eat said shoe, or else it ain’t happening. $10 a ticket, and at least 25 of you have to show up. Also, the shoe might be made out of cake. Who’s to say.
Anyway, if you’re in the business of planning trips that you’ll probably have to cancel in advance, the schedule is here.
NEW YORK, NY - AUGUST 28: Hunter Brown #58 of the Houston Astros pitches during the game between the Houston Astros and the New York Mets at Citi Field on Friday, August 28, 2026 in New York, New York. (Photo by Michael Mooney/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The lights are always a little brighter when the Astros play nationally on Fox. Today we’re treated to an exclusive conversation at The Crawfish Boxes with Fox 26 Houston’s long time sports personality, Nate Griffin.
Q: Nate, does something just feel “right” about the Astros playing a meaningful game in September on Fox?
A: Absolutely. You know, if the Astros are not in the postseason, it seems a little strange. The Astros had a magical run from 2017 to 2024. It’s easy to assume that the ship will keep sailing but thanks to injuries, free agency, a weakened farm system, etc., the “Astros Run” came to a bitter end in 2025. Saturday should be fun.
Q: Do you think we total it all up in a few weeks that 83 wins might be enough to win this division?
A: The A.L. West is the weakest division in baseball. Never thought we’d see such a struggle within the entire division. The Astros can’t seem to find the consistency to pull away. Their longest win streak this season is 6 games. Longest win streak for the Rangers is 4 games. Longest win streak for the Mariners is 8 games. The Astros longest win streak in 2017 was 11 games. But that seemed to give them the confidence they needed to finish strong at the end and they also had better pitching.
Q: If we’re sitting here a month from now and the Astros are playing in October, should Joe Espada return as manager?
A: The Astros could get on a hot streak in October, but I honestly don’t think it’ll be enough to bring Espada back. Seems to be a foregone conclusion that he is only with the team until the end of the season. It is believed that management is going to move forward without him.
Q: What’s been the biggest disappointment for you? For me, it’s been Imai.
A: There have been several disappointments in 2026. The Astros still seem to have challenges keeping their key players healthy. Hunter Brown wasn’t completely healthy to start the season. Christian Javier has not been himself since 2024. Carlos Correa wasn’t able to stay healthy this season. Tough to win. And the Astros expected more from Imai; didn’t get it. Also, not sure how the Daulton Varsho trade had helped the Astros. He’s currently hitting .172.
What an interesting pair of games. In one, the Cubs faced the NL Cy Young favorite, chased him by scoring five runs in four innings — and lost. And in the other, the Cubs’ offense was smothered by yet another up-and-coming Brewer SP, balanced by an elite Cub SP performance. Yet, the Cubs had to depend on two struggling RPs to achieve the win — and they did so two perfect innings for the win.
The second game allowed the Cubs to split the four-game series. It wasn’t the hopeful outcome, but the team avoided losing the series and kept pace with the Brewers in the NL Central.
Kevin Gausman came through with an Ace-level performance Thursday, having gone seven innings, allowed five hits and a walk with nine strikeouts. His lone blip was his lone run allowed — the dreaded *CSPSHR*, but that makes him a true Cubs SP!
For the final two innings, the Cubs had to turn to a pair of inconsistent relievers to close out the game. Ryan Zeferjahn has had a short, rocky stint as a member of the Cubs. Ryan Rolison was a stud for several weeks in the Cubs’ bullpen, but he has suddenly become inconsistent. But the short-term closing options available were extremely limited at best.
The duo took to the mound, with the vocal support of the Wrigley crowd, and pitched a perfect inning each to secure the win.
That made the only offense by Chicago stand. In the third inning, a Carson Kelly single and a Pete Crow-Armstrong two-run blast to centerfield for his 39th home run of the year led the way for the 2-1 win.
That was part of PCA’s two-game performance, as he went 2-for-7 with two walks and three runs. The only other performance over the two games that stands out is Alex Bregman’s 3-for-7 with a double, home run and four RBI.
Bregman was the impetus for the Cubs to chase Jacob Misiorowski from the mound, as his two-RBI home run and two-RBI double in the first two innings gave the Cubs a 5-3 lead. However, David Peterson was even worse than Misiorowski — Peterson went 3.2 innings, allowed six runs on seven hits and four walks with a *CSPSHR*. That included the key swing in the fourth inning, where Peterson’s three runs allowed turned a 5-3 Cubs lead to a 6-5 Brewer lead on the way to a Milwaukee win.
*Complimentary Starting Pitcher Solo Home Run*
*means autoplay on, (directions to remove for Firefox and Chrome). {$} means paywall. {$} means limited views. Italics are often used on this page as sarcasm font. The powers that be have enabled real sarcasm font in the comments.
Thursday Night’s Game Stories:
Jordan Bastian (MLB.com): Gausman (9 K’s), bullpen shut down Brewers’ bats in Cubs’ win. “Tasked with avoiding a series loss against the rival Brewers, Kevin Gausman took the hill at Wrigley Field and delivered a vintage performance to lead the North Siders to the win column.”
Jordan Bastian (MLB.com): Brown to miss rest of season after rehab setback. “Ben Brown was trying to do everything in his power to make a comeback this season to help the Cubs’ pitching staff down the stretch and into October.”
Sam Caulder (North Side Baseball): The Cubs May Not Have a Place for Pedro Ramírez This October. “The Cubs have found a valuable young contributor in Pedro Ramírez. For 2026, however, finding him a spot in the postseason lineup may be easier said than done.”
Alexander Rosquez (LastWordInSports): Cubs Wild Card Position Keeps NL Central Deficit in Perspective. “The defeat was costly in the NL Central race, but the Cubs remained just one game behind the top Wild Card position entering the next day of the series.”
Matthew Trueblood (North Side Baseball): The Cubs’ Base Coaches Are Two of the Team’s Most Lethal Weapons. “They’re in your glove, and even if they’re not in your glove, they’re in your head. They’re force multipliers for the league’s best outfield defense and its best baserunning unit. Quintin Berry and Jose Javier might be the Cubs’ two best acquisitions in years.”
Food For Thought:
Blues singer, guitarist, and bandleader Theodis Ealey has earned his nickname as “the Bluesman Lover.” Ealey first made his name working with some of the best names in the blues, but he’s also won an avid following for his ribald R&B tunes about love and lovemaking. Ealey was born in Natchez, Mississippi in 1947. One of 11 children, Ealey learned to play guitar when he was four years old, after his older brother Y.Z. Ealey gave him his first lessons. About ten years later, the brothers were playing together in a band called Y.Z. Ealey & the Merrymakers, with the younger Ealey on bass and a third brother, Melwin Ealey, also in the lineup. About a year later, Ealey traded in the bass for a guitar and joined Eugene Butler & the Rocking Royals, another group that played in the Natchez region.
He became a journeyman guitarist, and as his reputation grew, Ealey landed gigs backing up Little Milton, Richard “Dimples” Fields, Charles Brown, and Johnny Clyde Copeland. Now known as a first-class sideman, Ealey began stepping out as a frontman. It wasn’t long before Ichiban Records took notice of Ealey’s musical skills and signed him to a deal
Please be reminded that Cub Tracks and Bleed Cubbie Blue do not necessarily endorse the content of articles, podcasts, or videos that are linked to in this series.
Mark Walter's quick sale of the Lakers and pending investigations of his companies have led to questions about whether he'll have to sell his majority ownership stake in the Dodgers. (Photo illustration by Tate Rudisill / Los Angeles Times; photos by Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times, Michael Reaves / Getty Images, Frederic J. BROWN / AFP, Damian Dovarganes / AP Photo)
A few months after Mark Walter became the chairman and majority owner of the Dodgers, he was told a fan in one of Dodger Stadium’s upper decks was upset about a mix-up with his tickets.
On most days, that would be an issue for an usher to handle. Not on this day.
Walter and team president Stan Kasten decided to address the problem, climbing the narrow stairwell to the top level where they found the fan and listened to his complaint.
“Obviously the guy was floored just to see me, let alone to see Mark,” Kasten said. “Mark, he’s incredibly comfortable around people. Not just his peers, but average fans. Because he considers himself an average fan.”
The Dodgers’ billionaire owner, hardly an average fan, is under intense scrutiny these days, following the sale of his controlling interest in the Lakers and a federal investigation into his business dealings. The drama has come as a surprise to some who know Walter, who has earned respect for his financial acumen and, despite his purchases of high-profile sports teams, has tended to dodge publicity.
He put together the ownership group that bought the Dodgers in 2012. Since the purchase, the team has played in five World Series, winning three, and finished first in the National League West 12 times in 14 seasons. It’s the greatest sustained run of excellence in baseball in more than a generation.
Walter waves to the crowd during the Dodgers' ring ceremony in March. (Jessie Alcheh/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
If the Dodgers win a third straight World Series this fall, they will become the first team to three-peat this century. And much of the credit for that would go to Walter, who has funded a front office that consistently has outspent the rest of Major League Baseball, signing seven players to contracts worth more than $2 billion combined in the last six years alone.
Now Walter faces questions about his future owning the Dodgers. Last month, his companies became the focus of two federal inquiries and a Delaware insurance regulatory review.
He is helping pay off some of his companies’ loans and sold the Lakers at a record valuation of $12.5 billion, a deal Walter’s holding company, TWG Global, says was not forced by the inquiries. Still, the sale raised questions about whether he will sell his ownership stakes in other sports properties, including English soccer club Chelsea, the Cadillac Formula One racing team, the WNBA’s Sparks and the Professional Women’s Hockey League.
Walter declined to comment for this article.
Kasten insists Walter has no plans to divest from the Dodgers. “The sports portfolio is going to remain intact,” Kasten said. “It’s important to Mark. I can’t tell you how important the Dodgers are to him.”
Still, Kasten acknowledges the decision to sell the Lakers to former Disney chief executive Bob Iger and venture capitalist Joshua Kushner just 14 months after agreeing to buy the team “was not a planned thing,” either.
Walter hoists the World Series trophy next to MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred last November. (Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
Like most of the middle-class kids in the class of 1978 at Jefferson High in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, Walter worked in high school.
“He pumped gas and he played golf,” recalled Cathy Boland Polito, Walter’s date for the senior prom who is now a retired medical technologist living in Oro Valley, Ariz.
Walter hardly stood out in his graduating class of about 350 students. He was athletic but not a stud. He was a good student, especially in math, but not a nerd.
“He was friendly. He was nice,” Polito said. “Everybody sort of knew him.”
Walter talks with Dodgers president Stan Kasten during the playoffs last year. "I can't tell you how important the Dodgers are to him," Kasten says. (Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
Walter went to Creighton University , where he studied accounting and business while playing intramural sports and participating in the philosophy society. Three years later, he earned a law degree from Northwestern.
Walter met his wife, Kimbra, in Chicago, where they raised their daughter, Samantha.
After a decade split between a Chicago law firm and First Chicago Capital Markets, a financial services and securities brokerage, Walter founded an investment firm, Liberty Hampshire Co., in 1996. While there he met J. Todd Morley, who connected him with the Guggenheim family fortune. The introduction quickly led to the formation of Guggenheim Partners, an investment and advisory financial services firm that works with insurance services, among other assets, and one that has a Wall Street reputation for being low-key but aggressive.
Before the COVID-19 pandemic closed Guggenheim’s offices, the lobby of the firm’s Chicago headquarters on the 49th floor of the AT&T Center boasted one of Monet’s “Water Lilies” paintings, which hung behind the receptionist’s desk inside a glass case with an alarm. A Picasso brightened another office upstairs.
Walter with Guggenheim Baseball Management partners Peter Guber, left, Stan Kasten and Magic Johnson at Dodger Stadium in 2012 after the group bought the Dodgers for $2 billion. (Damian Dovarganes / Associated Press)
A company insider not authorized to speak publicly told The Times in 2012 that Walter was a disciplined, focused and careful investor.
“He is a guy with one of the great financial minds of our time,” the person said.
For Walter, 66, who grew up playing youth baseball about 50 miles from the Iowa cornfield that became Kevin Costner’s “Field of Dreams,” that financial success was all well and good. But the longtime Chicago Cubs season-ticket holder really was a die-hard baseball fan whose dream was to own a sports franchise.
Walter first explored a purchase of the Houston Astros, who eventually were sold to Houston businessman Jim Crane for $615 million ahead of the 2012 season. So Walter pivoted and formed Guggenheim Baseball Management, a group that included Kasten, Lakers Hall of Famer Magic Johnson, movie producer Peter Guber and investors Bobby Patton and Todd Boehly, to buy the Dodgers for $2.15 billion, a record at the time, in March 2012. Part of the money Walter invested in the deal came from the insurers he controlled, although that deal was vetted by state insurance regulators.
MLB engineered the sale of the Dodgers after previous owner Frank McCourt filed for bankruptcy.
“The market drove the price,” Walter told The Times after the sale closed, calling the investment “a multigenerational thing my daughter’s granddaughters will own.” Walter’s daughter, who grew up joining family trips to Los Angeles for Dodgers games, is a marketing manager at TWG Global.
WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 02: U.S. President Joe Biden (C) holds the jersey given to him by Los Angeles Dodgers Chairman Mark Walter during an event with the 2020 World Series champions in the East Room of the White House on July 02, 2021 in Washington, DC. The Dodgers defeated the Tampa Bay Rays to win the championship series at the end of an abbreviated season due to the coronavirus. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
(Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images)WASHINGTON, DC - APRIL 07: (L-R) Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw, U.S. President Donald Trump, and Los Angeles Dodgers Owner and Chairman Mark Walter pose with a jersey presented to Trump as he hosts the 2024 World Series champions in the East Room of the White House on April 07, 2025 in Washington, DC. The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the New York Yankees with a 7-6 victory in Game 5. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
(Kevin Dietsch / Getty Images)
Today, the team is the most lucrative in the sport and is on pace to become just the second this century to draw more than 4 million fans in consecutive seasons. The Dodgers could be sold for a valuation of $10 billion to $13 billion — at the higher end, three times as much as the record sale price for a major league team — an industry source told The Times on the condition of anonymity.
Through it all, Walter mostly has shunned attention. The exception is participating in on-field championship celebrations and joining the team for trips to the White House during the Trump and Biden administrations.
His smooth run was interrupted during the Dodgers’ run to the 2024 World Series when Walter suffered a stroke that kept him from the victory celebration. His recovery reportedly was arduous; Walter struggled to speak clearly for months and didn’t return to public view until the Dodgers’ season-opening series in Japan the following spring.
Walter didn’t publicly step down from any roles after the stroke, holding on to control of a vast portfolio. Since buying the Dodgers, he has invested in European soccer, women’s hockey and basketball, squash and auto racing. He also bought several historic buildings in the resort town of Crested Butte, Colo., where he and his philanthropist wife own a home. In 2013, the couple purchased the Wild Oak Plantation, a 17,000-acre wildlife preserve in northeast Florida, where the Walters now spend most of their time.
Kimbra has served on the boards of Chicago’s Lincoln Park Zoo, OneGoal nonprofit and Goodman Theatre and is active in the family’s charitable organization, TWF Causes, which focuses on social impact and conservation work, including owning or supporting several major conservation and private reserve properties in Africa.
The family has a limited political footprint, with Walter donating to the Democratic National Committee and the campaigns of then-presidential candidate Barack Obama and then-Chicago mayoral candidate Rahm Emanuel. The majority of their donations, however, run through their family foundation and the Dodgers Foundation.
“For us, my wife and I, and all of my partners believe that corporations have to be corporate citizens, and individuals who benefit from them, or who have built them, need to give back,” Walter told ESPN soon after buying the Dodgers. “You can’t take it with you, and you ought to do something philanthropic with it.”
But while he’s put money into charitable projects, he’s invested his heart and soul in the Dodgers, Kasten said.
“He cares deeply about it,” the Dodgers president said. “He’s living through every play, every out, every at-bat.”
However much longer Walter remains invested in the Dodgers — financially, at least — could come down to math.
Justice Department prosecutors, the Securities and Exchange Commission and a Delaware insurance regulator are investigating whether Walter funneled as much as $21 billion from the portfolios of two insurance companies he owns into private credit for loans to other companies he also controls while reporting just a fraction of the loans’ value. The Wall Street Journal and the Athletic reported Walter used billions of dollars of those insurance premiums to buy sports teams.
Such “related party transactions” are legal, within limits, but are required to be reported to guard against conflicts of interest and to protect clients.
In Walter’s case, the related-party loans f initially were reported at between $1 billion and $1.4 billion when the true total actually was between $16 billion and $21 billion. The reclassification meant the affiliated investments jumped from 2% of one insurer’s portfolio to about 40%, according to Fitch Ratings.
No formal charges have been filed, and TWG Global, the multinational holding company led by Walter, is cooperating in the investigation. Walter has declined to be interviewed or to respond to written questions about the investigation, but his representatives have strongly denied any improper behavior, describing reports of the probe as “substantial speculation and misinformation” advanced by “unnamed sources and self-serving interests.”
“It does not inspire confidence to know that this kind of wild understatement happened,” said Andrew Granato, a law professor at the University of Texas at Austin who specializes in corporate finance and insurance. “It also doesn’t inspire very much confidence in the system of insurance regulation we have, that there could be this big of a mess that was not caught for years.”
Walter hired veteran Goldman Sachs lawyer David Markowitz to be his chief legal officer and reportedly is exploring the sale of his 12.8% stake in the Chelsea soccer club to Clearlake Capital, a Santa Monica-based private-equity firm whose Puerto Rican-born co-founder, José E. Feliciano, recently bought the San Diego Padres.
A source close to Walter not authorized to discuss it publicly told The Times he has an interest in selling Chelsea if the terms are right but insisted there is no desire to sell the Sparks, the PWHL, his investment in professional squash or, more prominently, his stake in the Dodgers.
While Kasten and TWG Global officials insist the Dodgers aren’t for sale, uncertainty likely will linger at least until all investigations are completed.
Times staff writer Mirjam Swanson contributed to this report.
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JULY 12: Charlie Condon #24 of the Colorado Rockies takes batting practice prior to the 2026 All-Star Futures Game Presented by Nike at Citizens Bank Park on Sunday, July 12, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Two months ago, Charlie Condon (No. 2 PuRP) looked close to running out of things to prove in Triple-A.
Condon was coming off a June in which he hit .337/.462/.814 with 10 home runs in 106 plate appearances.
The power expected from the third-overall pick in the 2024 draft had arrived without Condon abandoning the patience that carried him through a quieter start to the season.
Eventually, though, pitchers found a response.
After posting a 1.276 OPS in June, Condon fell to .758 in July and .695 in August. Ten home runs in one month became four over the next two.
The downturn has been even sharper recently. Over the last 30 days, Condon is hitting .200/.330/.300 with a 56 wRC+. Even so, his full Triple-A season still sits at .267/.387/.496 with a 113 wRC+.
This is still the best power season of Condon’s professional career. His 22 home runs, .496 slugging percentage and .883 OPS are all career highs, as are his 117 games and 446 at-bats. He is also playing deeper into a season than he ever has as a professional.
So, what changed?
Condon made the first adjustment
The June breakout did not come from a major change in how pitchers attacked Condon.
Through May 22, he was hitting .239/.369/.377 with four home runs in 195 plate appearances. From May 23 through the end of June, he hit .351/.474/.865 with 14 home runs in 137 plate appearances.
His zone rate moved only from 47.6% to 49.5%, while breaking-ball usage barely changed.
Condon changed.
Metric
Through May 22nd
May 23–June 30
Chase rate
19.7%
16.0%
Whiff rate
32.0%
23.8%
Hard-hit rate
42.7%
51.8%
Barrel rate
6.4%
16.9%
Avg. launch angle
9.4°
15.5°
Ground-ball rate
48.2%
34.9%
He chased less, missed less and elevated more of the contact he did make.
Early in the season, nearly half of Condon’s tracked balls in play were on the ground. During the power surge, that fell to roughly one-third. His contact got harder at the same time, and his barrel rate nearly tripled.
The recent downturn has not fully undone that adjustment. Condon’s ground-ball rate remained between 34.0% and 38.5% in July and August, while his average launch angle stayed near 14 degrees.
He is still lifting the ball. The pitches available for him to drive have changed.
Pitchers stopped giving him as many strikes
The response was not a wholesale change in pitch selection.
Breaking balls accounted for 36.8% of the pitches Condon saw in June and 39.5% in August. Their usage with no strikes was identical in both months.
The difference became more pronounced later in the count. With two strikes, breaking-ball usage increased from 36.1% in June to 45.6% in August.
The bigger change was location.
Condon saw 49.0% of all pitches in the strike zone during June. That fell to 42.1% in August.
The decline appeared at every stage of the count. August’s zone rate fell to 45.8% with no strikes, 40.9% with one strike and 37.7% with two.
It also cut across the pitches Condon saw most often. The zone rate on four-seamers fell from 50.4% in June to 41.1% in August. Sliders dropped from 44.3% to 38.4%, while sinkers went from 66.7% to 47.5%.
The adjustment shows up in repeat matchups.
On June 21, Ryan Weiss gave Condon a first-pitch four-seamer in the zone. Condon hit it at 97.9 mph for a single. In his three later plate appearances against Weiss, Weiss threw only one four-seamer, located it outside the zone and started Condon with three different pitches. Condon went 0-for-2 with a walk.
Brandon McPherson followed a similar path. Condon hit an in-zone four-seamer 101.7 mph for a single in June. When they met again in August, McPherson threw only five of 14 pitches in the zone and finished an eight-pitch strikeout with a cutter below it.
The 10 pitchers Condon faced in June and again in July or August reduced their collective zone rate from 49.3% to 43.3%. Their four-seam zone rate fell from 55.0% to 37.5%.
Condon followed them.
His chase rate climbed from 15.0% in June to 24.5% in August. That is not an extreme rate on its own, but the nearly 10-point increase came as pitchers were giving him fewer strikes.
Fewer opportunities were only part of it
If pitchers had merely stopped giving Condon hittable pitches, his decline could mostly be explained by opportunity.
His contact quality declined, too.
His average exit velocity on balls in play fell from 91.7 mph in June to 86.7 mph in August. His hard-hit rate dropped from 52.4% to 27.7%.
Four-seam fastballs remain the pitch Condon has handled best.
Although Condon’s hard-hit rate against them declined, his expected slugging on four-seam contact remained strong. He can still hurt the pitch. He simply received fewer four-seamers in the strike zone.
The sharper deterioration came against sliders and changeups.
Condon’s hard-hit rate against sliders fell from 46.2% in June to 20.8% across July and August. Against changeups, it dropped from 71.4% to 18.8%, while his whiff rate more than doubled.
The June changeup sample included only seven balls in play, so the exact size of the decline should be treated carefully.
Condon’s issues against secondary pitches are not limited to one shape.
Pitch
Usage
xwOBA
Whiff%
Hard Hit%
Four-seam
27.5%
.386
26.9%
53.7%
Slider
23.4%
.375
40.3%
34.4%
Changeup
11.0%
.271
37.0%
23.7%
Sweeper
8.2%
.297
40.6%
31.8%
Curveball
5.3%
.195
40.6%
0.0%
Condon’s swing-and-miss stands out less because of one extreme weakness than because it remains elevated across the board. His whiff rate sits between 37.0% and 40.6% against sliders, changeups, sweepers and curveballs.
Across a comparison group of 20 Triple-A hitters, the average whiff rates were 32.6% against sliders, 30.7% against curveballs, 30.1% against sweepers and 29.1% against changeups. Condon sits roughly eight to 11 percentage points higher against all four.
Individual hitters in that group showed worse numbers against particular pitches, but many had considerably more variation from one secondary pitch to another. Condon does not.
The hard-hit comparison is less concerning against most secondary pitches. Condon is only a few points below the group against sliders, changeups, and sweepers. Against sliders, his .375 xwOBA and 34.4% hard-hit rate show that he can still do damage when he connects. Curveballs stand apart, producing a .195 xwOBA and no hard-hit balls in the tracked sample.
Overall, the issue was not simply more breaking balls. Pitchers changed where and when they used them. They reduced the number of hittable four-seamers he saw, leaned on secondary pitches to change the shape of the at-bat and increasingly forced him to deal with pitches he was less likely to drive.
The path back to harder contact likely starts with pitch selection. As Condon expanded more often, he put more difficult pitches into play — pitches he could reach, but not necessarily drive.
That will not solve everything. He also has to do more damage against the sliders and changeups that do enter his hitting window.
The next adjustment
Pitchers have changed how they attack Condon.
For much of July and August, it worked.
That does not erase the adjustment Condon made earlier in the season. His launch-angle gains have largely held even as the quality of his contact declined. That decline has carried into September. Through his first four games of the month, Condon is 2-for-15 with seven strikeouts.
Thursday offered one encouraging sign. Condon lined a slider to center field at 103.9 mph for his 22nd double, providing a reminder that he can still punish the pitch when he gets one to hit. It does not mean he has adjusted back, but it gives him something to build on over the final weeks of the season.
There will be plenty of time this offseason to speculate about where Condon fits into the Rockies’ plans for 2027 and beyond.
For now, the more immediate question is simpler.
Pitchers adjusted to him.
The rest of September gives Condon a chance to start adjusting back.
The Albuquerque Isotopes (66-70) erased a 3-2 deficit with five runs in the fifth inning and pulled away for an 11-6 win over the Tacoma Rainiers (65-71) on Friday night. Tyler Freeman delivered the go-ahead blow with a two-run single, and Braxton Fulford followed with a three-run homer that stretched the lead to 7-3.
Fulford added a solo homer in the seventh to finish 2-for-4 with two home runs and four RBI. Drew Avans went 4-for-5 with four runs scored and a homer, Roc Riggio collected three hits with two doubles, and Sterlin Thompson went 2-for-4 with a double, walk, RBI and stolen base. Freeman drove in two, while Charlie Condon went 0-for-4 with a walk and two strikeouts.
Eiberson Castellano earned the win after allowing three runs on seven hits and two walks over five innings while striking out four. Albuquerque’s bullpen allowed three runs over the final four innings, with TJ Shook recording the final five outs without allowing a run. The Isotopes finished with 14 hits, four home runs and went 4-for-9 with runners in scoring position while leaving just five men on base. Tacoma went 4-for-17 with runners in scoring position, stranded 11 runners and struck out seven times.
The Hartford Yard Goats (63-66) walked off the Reading Fightin Phils (65-64), 4-3, after surrendering the tying run in the top of the ninth. Zach Kokoska opened the bottom of the inning with his second double of the night, moved to third on Jimmy Obertop’s sacrifice bunt and scored the winning run when Jared Thomas was hit by a pitch with the bases loaded.
Kokoska went 2-for-3 with two doubles, three runs scored, an RBI and a walk, and was at the center of Hartford’s offense throughout the night. His RBI double tied the game 2-2 in the seventh before Kyle Karros followed later in the inning with an RBI double to put the Yard Goats ahead. GJ Hill also doubled home a run, while Jack O’Dowd went 0-for-4. Hartford finished with seven hits, went 2-for-9 with runners in scoring position and stranded nine.
Konner Eaton turned in a strong start, allowing one run on four hits and two walks over six innings while striking out five. Hunter Mann followed with five strikeouts of his own in two innings, allowing one run, before Fidel Ulloa worked the ninth. Ulloa surrendered Caleb Ricketts’ game-tying solo homer but struck out two and picked up the win after Hartford answered in the bottom half. Yard Goats pitching combined for 12 strikeouts and held Reading to 1-for-10 with runners in scoring position, although the Fightin Phils left eight runners on base.
The Spokane Indians (57-72) erased a five-run deficit and walked off the Everett AquaSox (66-64), 7-6, with two runs in the ninth. Everett led 6-1 after four innings, but Spokane chipped away with a run in the sixth and three more in the eighth before Ethan Hedges tied the game with an RBI single in the ninth. Wilder Dalis followed with a sharp single to left to bring home Max Belyeu with the winning run.
Alan Espinal helped fuel the comeback, going 1-for-4 with a two-run triple in the eighth that cut the deficit to 6-4. Kelvin Hidalgo followed with an RBI groundout to make it a one-run game. Dalis finished 2-for-5 with a double and the walk-off RBI, while Tommy Hopfe went 2-for-3 with two doubles and a walk. Hedges added a hit, walk and RBI, and Jacob Hinderleider went 2-for-4. Spokane finished with 10 hits, went 4-for-10 with runners in scoring position and left eight men on base.
Angel Jimenez struggled through five innings, allowing six runs on eight hits and two walks while striking out three. The bullpen kept Spokane in it from there: Alberto Pacheco worked two scoreless innings, Austin Emener added a scoreless eighth, and Seth Clausen struck out all three batters he faced in the ninth. Spokane pitching combined for seven strikeouts, while Everett went 4-for-11 with runners in scoring position and stranded eight.
The Fresno Grizzlies (69-61) rallied from an early three-run deficit and forced extra innings, but the San Jose Giants (82-48) scored four times in the 10th to pull away for an 8-5 win.
Daniel Jackson continued his strong debut season, going 2-for-4 with a walk, a stolen base and a run scored. He singled and stole second in the fourth before scoring on a Cort MacDonald single, then added another hit in the 10th. Cristian Arguelles went 2-for-5 with two doubles and an RBI, Ashly Andujar collected two hits, and Jack Natili drove in Fresno’s final run with a sacrifice fly in the bottom of the 10th. The Grizzlies finished with 10 hits, went 3-for-13 with runners in scoring position and left nine men on base.
Brady Parker gave Fresno six innings, allowing three runs on five hits and one walk while striking out seven. Manuel Olivares covered the final four innings and struck out six, but San Jose got to him for five runs, four earned, including four in the 10th. Fresno pitching combined for 13 strikeouts and just two walks, but the late damage was enough to spoil the comeback.
Ryan Boman of Sports Illustrated profiles Brett Sullivan’s long road to the Rockies, the veteran presence he has brought to the clubhouse and whether he could stick around beyond this season. With Hunter Goodman established as the starter, Sullivan has still carved out value as a backup catcher and steady, upbeat voice on a young team.
Scott Roche of Heavy looks at Baltimore’s frustration after dropping two of three to the Rockies, including Wednesday’s 11-inning walk-off loss. Orioles manager Craig Albernaz called the defeat “very disappointing” as Baltimore missed a chance to gain ground in a crowded AL Wild Card race.
Duane DaPron of Purple Row looks at Gabriel Hughes’ continued search for his first major-league win after another encouraging outing against Baltimore. Hughes allowed just one run over 4.2 innings, and DaPron examines both the progress Hughes has shown and the lessons the rookie is taking from a difficult August as he tries to establish himself in the rotation.
Brent Maguire of MLB.com breaks down the newly released 2027 Spring Training schedule, with all 30 teams set to open play on Feb. 19. The schedule also includes several exhibition games at MLB parks before the regular season begins March 24.
Boston, MA - September 1: Boston Red Sox pitcher Jedixson Paez departs the game in the fourth inning. The Boston Red Sox played the Seattle Mariners at Fenway Park on September 1, 2026. (Photo by Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) | Boston Globe via Getty Images
Ima Gun-Di. Garielvin Silverio. Jace Mataczynski. Salacious B. Crumb. Tobias Beckett. Jedixson Paez. Half of these are characters from the Star Wars universe; the other half are Boston Red Sox prospects. That doesn’t have much to do with the rest of this piece, but recent Red Sox call-up Jedixson Paez’s name starts with “Jedi” and sounds really cool, so my mind went to Star Wars. (Note: it’s pronounced Head-Ick-Son).
Paez hails from Venezuela, whose rate of pumping out baseball players rivals Tatooine’s rate of pumping out jedis. Was Obi-Wan Kenobi from Tatooine, or did he happen to live there when Luke was a kid? For a nerd who has seen the Star Wars movies too many times, I weirdly don’t know much of the lore beyond what’s depicted on screen. The Pod on Lansdowne crew is going to hate this.
Paez, much like Luke Skywalker, left his home planet of Boston in the 2025 Rule-5 Draft and was taken to Alderaan Chicago to learn the ways of the Force White Sox. This is where the metaphor ends, because Luke doesn’t go back to his home planet for another two movies, and Paez only made three appearances with the White Sox before being designated for assignment and returning to the Red Sox organization.
Over those three outings, Paez failed to record a strikeout, walked three of the 16 batters he faced, and surrendered two home runs to combine for an 18 ERA. On Tuesday, with the rotation being held together by duct tape and Payton Tolle, the Red Sox were in need of a spot start and called upon Paez.
I’ll cut to the chase — the start went poorly. Paez surrendered eight runs over 3.2 innings. He gave up 10 hits, walking two and striking out three. He was booed on multiple occasions throughout the evening. Trevor Story tossed his first career strikeout ball into the stands at the end of an inning. It was an all-around a rough team debut for the rookie.
I want to look at the second inning. Paez was tagged for five earned runs in the frame, but I don’t think he was as bad as the line looks. Josh Naylor started the inning with a double to deep right-center field on a sinker that was on the edge. It was a good swing by Naylor on a pitch that was well-located, but probably doesn’t need to be thrown much against lefties. After that, Cole Young hit a jamshot single on a cutter in a good location. Paez walked the next batter as he lost the zone a bit, and then gave up a sacrifice fly. The next batter hit a chopper over first base that went for an infield single. After that, he left a pitch over the middle of the plate to Randy Arozarena, who hit it one million feet for a three-run home run.
He threw two meatballs that went for home runs in the evening, the second of which capped off the five-run inning. While the inning was far from a masterpiece, to me, it was more a case of a few bad pitches and some bad batted-ball luck that snowballed on a young pitcher. He was put in a tough spot against a good lineup and wasn’t up for the challenge.
That doesn’t mean it’s all bad, though. I saw a few things during the start that can be building blocks. First, his fastball shape. The height-adjusted vertical approach angle came in at 1.1 degrees, a solid mark that should help miss bats and mask poor locations. He also averaged 92 miles per hour with 6.7 feet of extension. The velocity mark is hardly eye-catching, but he throws with such relaxed mechanics and has room to add muscle. The Red Sox have had success in helping pitchers add velocity, and Paez is a prime candidate for offseason improvement.
He also flashed a curveball that doesn’t jump off the page, but his ability to flip it in the zone for free strikes was impressive. He generally kept it down, though a few popped out of his hand and landed above the zone. Through the minors, Paez has been a solid strike-thrower with his fastballs. On a night when his fastballs weren’t there, the curveball gave him a strike-getter and is another arrow in his quiver that he can command well and help him jump in front of hitters.
Speaking of strike-getting weapons, Paez threw a cutter for 90% strikes as well. Given the rest of his arsenal, the cutter is a big pitch to use against right-handed hitters. On Tuesday, he went 6/6 with it, though the locations were poor. At 85 mph with positive horizontal movement, it should work with the right locations.
The real attraction, however, is the changeup. It’s not the typical arm-side running changeup that most pitchers feature, but more of a straight-change. Anecdotally, I find that straight changes are typically more platoon-neutral and can survive better in the zone. Through a short major-league career, the pitch has shown bat-missing ability, registering a 17% swinging strike rate. Even as he struggled on Tuesday, he was able to induce four whiffs with the pitch.
Paez’s stuff isn’t overwhelming, but he has a deep arsenal of pitches that shouldn’t be destroyed when they’re commanded. “Have better command” is easier said than done, but he’s shown elite command in the minor leagues. He has minuscule walk rates in each of his minor league stops. In his brief time in Worcester, each of his pitches has a strike rate over 60%. They’re also generally commanded where they’re supposed to be (featuring my MS Paint handwriting because I was too lazy to pull up Photoshop).
The changeups and sinkers are on the arm-side. The cutter is on the glove side. The four-seam fastballs are generally up in the zone as well. The curveball probably caught too much of the plate, though that might be primarily early in counts to steal strikes. Given his minor league command, I’d expect him to rein it back in once his feet are under him.
Paez was sent back down to Worcester to work on his craft, and potentially stay ready for another spot start if the rotation needs reshuffling. The big league club has an off day each of the final three weeks of the season, so they may be able to shift things around without requiring an extra arm. If Paez is called upon once again, there’s reason to believe he can throw a few solid innings. If we don’t see him again this year, that’s okay too. He’s 22 years old, big, and has a deep arsenal. There’s plenty of time for the Padawan to become a full-fledged Jedi.
PORT ST. LUCIE, FL - MARCH 19: Mitch Voit #55 of the New York Mets smiles during batting practice prior to the game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Mets at Clover Park on Thursday, March 19, 2026 in Port St. Lucie, Florida. (Photo by Scott Audette/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
In game one of the double-header, the Mets mustered only three hits against the Red Wings. Jack Wenninger went four, striking our five, allowing two runs on four hits and three walks. Dan Hammer didn’t help, allowing three runs in one and a third innings pitched.
Zach Franklin (acquired for Huascar Brazobán) continued his success in Triple-A, tossing two scoreless innings, allowing two hits with one strikeout. On the alternate spelling tip, Zack Short hit an RBI double. Vidal Bruján drove in two runs on a double and Hayden Senger drilled a three-run, pinch hit home run.
Mitch Voit drove in both Bingo runs on a double, which accounted for just all the offense for the Rumble Ponies, aside from a single by Eddinson Paulino. The Binghamton pitching staff allowed just four baserunners all night, stirking out ten and walking none.
John Spikerman had himself a night in the Brooklyn loss: two walks, three stolen bases, three runs scored, a home run, and two RBI. Sadly, Joe Scarborough gave up six runs in just an inning and a third of work, leading to the loss.
Yovanny Rodriguez hit two solo home runs, and Kuhio Aloy and Branny De Oleo added home runs of their own en route to the St. Lucie dub. The St. Lucie staff struck out 17 and walked six.
Juan Soto
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Cal Raleigh
COVERS INTEL: Messick's 91st percentile barrel rate should play extremely well against a Tigers lineup 
Martin Perez 
Jacob deGrom
