Like the rest of the NL Central, the St. Louis Cardinals have been at or above .500 for the majority of the season, but despite outperforming expectations, they find themselves in the middle of the way-too-early division race. Thanks to Jordan Walker, rookie JJ Wetherholt, and a new hero each win, the Cardinals have been able to hide the weakness on the field. Through the first 25 games of the year, St. Louis starting pitchers are checking in at 29th in the league by measure of fWAR and the underlying metrics show the alarming truth that they might actually be outperforming expectations so far in 2026.
As we all know, the point of this season was to serve as a fact-finding mission for most every piece on the major league roster. That involved bringing back everyone’s favorite 2025 term “runway” when talking about Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker on the offensive side, as well as including Kyle Leahy and Andre Pallante in the rotation. So far, the Cardinals are batting .333 when looking at the early success of these four players. (I am classifying Leahy as an in-progress plate appearance since he is the one with the least amount of track record heading into the season as a starter). All four of them had the right to the first crack at playing time, especially factoring in that Chaim Bloom did not want to get into any 40-man funny business before the regular season got started.
Unfortunately, we have seen the Andre Pallante we saw for the majority of last season, a pitcher with a below-average fastball and inconsistent breaking stuff, which ends up with starts showing lack of command, lack of efficiency, or some combination of both. Positively, Pallante has already won more games than he won the entire second half last year, but he has yet to pitch more than five innings or allow less than six baserunners in any of his four starts. Leahy, on the other hand, has been more effective than Pallante when it comes to strikeouts and walks, but not by much, which is a bummer for a pitcher who had a mediocre 22% K-rate last year so he did not have much wiggle room for regression there, while also losing close to 2mph on his average fastball. The move to the rotation has also impacted his command, as the former reliever is walking hitters more often and allowing more hits and homers than he did out of the bullpen. In a season of fact-finding, the early returns are not pointing to positive data in the Cardinals rotation, potentially forcing more moves than anticipated for a rotation that seemed to be a point of solid, if unspectacular performances.
The Cardinals should utilize the Memphis Shuttle for more than just relievers
The Opening Day rotation featured Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, Dustin May, Andre Pallante, and Kyle Leahy, which again simply seemed “fine” for this iteration of Cardinals baseball. However, the early struggles of Pallante and Leahy did not help when surrounded by a couple May blowups (the pitcher not the month), and McGreevy getting hit like the pitch-to-contact hurler he is. Staff number one Matthew Liberatore has also been simply okay thus far, but he is showing concerning command issues and losing his normal strikeout stuff and was hit hard in his start against the Mariners.. For those keeping score at home, that is closer to 0-for-5 than any of us were hoping for, especially with the Cardinals still managing to win ballgames.
The problem with this current rotation alignment is that each of these players should start games as long as they are healthy or unplayable, which is quite the standard to hit in a season where winning is not priority 1, 2, or 3. I truly hope none of the five incumbents get there, but I am also hoping that the need to find answers extends beyond the major league roster and trickles into Memphis for some of the arms that are close to St. Louis. Typically, we see the shuttle bus reserved for struggling or overused relievers, but I would be open to gassing that baby up to transport guys who can pitch more than an inning at a time and still give the team a chance to win. Of course, a difficulty of that is having MLB-ready talent sitting in Triple-A who also match up to schedule and rotation needs, which the Cardinals have not worried about yet thanks to having every Thursday off in April.
One such pitcher who, at times, looked to be the next man up when the rotation was ready was Richard Fitts, who flashed high-90s velocity during Spring and was the face of the revamp we were promised in the minors. However, the minor league injury bug struck yet again in Memphis and Fitts has since undergone season-ending shoulder surgery with the expectation of a full recovery in 2027. Now, Fitts joins a growing list of Cardinals’ prospects who have missed extended time due to injury despite the major league arms seemingly immune to health issues.
A name left off the list but currently rehabbing is other offseason acquisition in Hunter Dobbins, who the Red Sox gave up in order to gain the services of Willson Contreras. Dobbins came to St. Louis already recovering from ACL surgery, but his inability to yet field his position in games limited his exposure to big league hitters during camp. Now, he is back on the mound on what the Cardinals are calling a rehab assignment, meaning the team will have to make a decision on his roster standing when the allotted rehab time is up. The latest news around the organization is that a six-man rotation could be an option to help the Cardinals work through a long stretch of games, and the expectation is that Dobbins will fill that role. The remaining question, then, is if this is just a short three-game audition, or if he is actually going to be up and competing to stick around at the end of the grueling 17-game run.
The current rotation has an interesting setup, with really only Matthew Liberatore and probably Michael McGreevy having the longest leash for the entire season, as Dustin May is likely to be traded after bouncing back well since a rough start, and Pallante and Leahy have to prove their value to stick. The only change for the latter would likely be a move to the bullpen, if anything, as Leahy is 29 years old with an established ability to fill the middle innings. Pallante would be an interesting discussion if any changes were to happen in his role. He broke in and proved himself as a reliever before saving the rotation after stretching out in 2024, but he has never shown dominance as a starter or out of the bullpen. He has an option remaining and becomes arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason, so if the Cardinals find a couple things he needs to work on, a move to Memphis could help. But, if he is closer to a finished product than a work in progress, keeping him in the bigs might be the only option in hopes he can build his value enough to be shipped at the Trade Deadline with May.
If a demotion, role change, or trade were to happen anywhere in the rotation, someone from Memphis will have to be ready. Assuming Dobbins gets first dibs at any vacancy, it is a wide-open competition for who would be the next man up. Former Pitcher of the Year Quinn Mathews has battled adversity since that 2024 season, regressing from a Top-100 prospect to a solid future as a rotation arm, but has been working through command issues. Those struggles continued in the start of the 2026 season, and even with his strikeout stuff getting back on track, these issues could prevent a promotion, even if an injury strikes.
The 2025 Minor League Pitcher of the Year for the Cardinals, Brycen Mautz, also looked to be a candidate for a big-league spot, but he has simply been just “fine” outside of a 1.2 inning start where he allowed four homers and four walks in that shortened outing. He is on the 40-man roster and does not have the prospect pedigree of Mathews, so that could actually work in his favor if the Cardinals decide to “rush” Mautz to the bigs for a cameo or two.
Interestingly, and unfortunately, Memphis’ best starter so far has been 31-year-old journeyman Bruce Zimmerman who is putting up the best strikeout numbers of his career while with his fourth organization. Unlike the other lefties, he is not on the 40-man roster, so any move up to the St. Louis for Zimmerman would mean someone losing their spot on the 40-man, as well as on the big league roster. Then, if the Cardinals wanted to send Zimmerman back to the Redbirds, he would have to clear waivers due to being out of options.
I would be surprised if Bloom and Co decide to cycle through the roster outside of Dobbins (or whoever they choose) during the six-man rotation stint. I personally think that any roster changes would happen only due to injury or trade, as we all know that winning is not on the top of mind for the executives this season.
Would you like to see any changes in the current setup? Remember, demoting or trading someone means that someone else has to take their spot, so a simple “DFA Svanson” comment that is usually left for Twitter would not make sense here.
Thanks as always!
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