Lower slot, sky-high ceiling: Inside Luzardo's dominant summer run originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
Jesús Luzardo will start Game 1 of the National League Wild Card Series on Tuesday in Atlanta, 22 days after his previous start.
Activated from the injured list Sunday, Luzardo threw four pitches and induced three groundouts. The appearance could not show how deep he is ready to pitch, but the Phillies came away comfortable enough to give him the ball.
Luzardo’s previous start showed why the Phillies wanted that option. On Sept. 7, Labor Day, he threw the first complete game of his career in his 150th major league start. He struck out 12 and needed 109 pitches in a 1-0 win over the Braves.
It completed a 16-start run in which Luzardo went 10-1 with a 1.70 ERA and the Phillies went 14-2. No qualified pitcher in baseball had a lower ERA from June 10 through Sept. 7.
His average arm angle in the complete game was 26.5 degrees.
That reading put a stamp on a trend that had developed start by start. Luzardo was at 32.1 degrees on June 5. His angle dipped below 30 on June 23 and remained there for each of his final 14 starts.
As the angle fell, his results improved. The connection is more complicated than one mechanical number. Luzardo also threw more first-pitch strikes and leaned harder on one of baseball’s best sweepers in favorable counts.
Asked Monday about the lower slot, J.T. Realmuto pointed to more than the breaking ball.
“I don’t know the numbers or anything to back it up, but for me, it actually feels like his fastball got better,” Realmuto said.
Realmuto saw Luzardo beating right-handed hitters with the four-seamer more often. Better location could have contributed, but the pitches also worked together.
“I feel like his fastball played up when his arm slot lowered a little bit, and that just makes the sweeper that much better,” Realmuto said.
The numbers support what Realmuto saw. Against right-handed hitters, Luzardo’s four-seam whiff rate rose from 15.2 percent over his first 15 starts to 23.4 percent over his final 14. Their slugging percentage in plate appearances ending with the pitch fell from .554 to .389.
The lower slot was not entirely new. Luzardo raised his arm in 2024 to create more ride on his four-seam fastball. The delivery aggravated his back, and a lumbar stress reaction ended his season in June. With the Phillies in 2025, he returned to a lower slot that better fit his body and new sweeper.
He went lower again in 2026 without a planned overhaul or target number. Speaking Sept. 11 during the Phillies’ previous trip to Atlanta, Luzardo said he followed what felt right.
“It just felt better,” Luzardo said. “Just felt cleaner and easier for me to repeat my mechanics that way.”
“Gradually, some days I would throw a little lower, and I was like, ‘All right, that feels pretty good. Let me try that out,'” Luzardo said. “Every time I threw down there, it just felt cleaner and cleaner.”
Phillies assistant pitching coach Mark Lowy, who spoke that same day, has known Luzardo since the left-hander was a teenager. He also sees a delivery that works better with a lower slot.
“For him, the slot being lower, the rotation is a little bit cleaner,” Lowy said. “It just seems like that works with his body.”
“It’s more like a health and philosophy thing for me than pitch shapes or execution,” Lowy said. “I think he’s just kind of settled back down into more of a natural slot.”
One day later, left shoulder stiffness forced Luzardo out of his scheduled start. The Phillies eventually placed him on the 15-day injured list with inflammation. The timing adds context to Lowy’s health framing. The lower slot did not make Luzardo injury-proof, but it does not erase what the preceding three months showed.
A real change, with a tracking caveat
Statcast measures arm angle from a pitcher’s throwing shoulder to the ball at release. Luzardo’s pitch-weighted average fell from 31.4 degrees over his first 15 starts to 26.7 over his final 14, a drop of 4.7 degrees.
The shift cannot be explained by throwing more sweepers, a pitch he already releases from a lower angle. His arm angle dropped by at least four degrees on each of his four pitches. His release point also moved about two inches lower and three inches farther to the side.
Lowy warned against placing too much weight on a comparison between readings from different ballparks.
“I’m always a little bit of a skeptic with some of the measurements we get outside of CBP,” Lowy said. “Just ’cause you never know how well everything’s calibrated, and I don’t want to compare, you know, a road park to our home park.”
One road start still stood out. On July 9 in Cincinnati, Luzardo followed what felt natural instead of forcing his arm higher.
“Cincinnati stood out to me when he threw there, just visually,” Lowy said. “Throughout the outing, it just looked lower. I think instead of trying to create it differently, he kind of just fed into the lower slot, then he threw really well that day.”
Luzardo’s measured angle was 25.7 degrees. He allowed two hits over seven scoreless innings and struck out 11. Entering 2026, his previous lows were 28.0 degrees in a regular-season start and 27.6 in the postseason. Cincinnati was his first start on record below 27.
The broader change remains clear when road readings are removed. Luzardo averaged 31.3 degrees in his eight early starts at Citizens Bank Park. He averaged 26.1 in his six later home starts, a 5.2-degree drop measured in the same ballpark.
What changed with it
June 23 is the dividing line because it was Luzardo’s first start below 30 degrees.
| Metric | First 15 starts | Final 14 starts |
|---|---|---|
| Arm angle | 31.4° | 26.7° |
| Innings | 85 2/3 | 93 |
| ERA | 4.20 | 1.65 |
| Estimated xERA | 3.41 | 2.32 |
| WHIP | 1.31 | 0.87 |
| Opponent average | .259 | .170 |
| Strikeout rate | 26.6% | 34.2% |
| Walk rate | 7.4% | 6.9% |
His estimated xERA, which accounts for strikeouts, walks and quality of contact, also improved. The actual ERA swing was even larger.
Lowy said early results obscured some good work. A broken-bat single and a nine-pitch walk could precede a three-run homer. In another order, the same events might produce one run.
“All the numbers underneath the surface early on pointed to, like, dude, you’re doing a really, really good job,” Lowy said. “Let’s not panic.”
The lower angle should not receive credit for every result. Luzardo allowed five runs, one earned, in his first sub-30-degree start. He later allowed six earned runs in Miami at 26.8 degrees.
The relevant change is his broader move into a lower release window, not whether he was at 25 degrees or 27 in one start.
An elite sweeper, used differently
Luzardo’s sweeper finished among the best pitches in baseball. Only five qualifying pitches produced more than its plus-23 run value. Its 47.6 percent whiff rate ranked fifth. The .159 slugging percentage against it was third lowest, while the .112 batting average was second lowest.
The movement numbers alone do not show the lower slot making it better. The sweeper’s horizontal movement held at about 8.5 inches. Its velocity barely changed, and its whiff rate went from 47.2 percent to 47.8.
“I don’t think the pitch necessarily changed,” Luzardo said. “I think maybe a lower slot, different approach angle.”
The same break can look different from a lower and wider starting point. Luzardo believes the ball begins farther behind a left-handed hitter and farther away from a right-handed hitter.
“Whether it does add or doesn’t add more inches horizontally, I think just the angle itself probably helps me,” Luzardo said.
The lower release also works with his sinker, which moves in the opposite direction.
“Adding the sinker out of that slot kind of creates a little more east and west,” Luzardo said.
The results were most pronounced against left-handed hitters. Their chase rate against his sweeper rose from 38 percent to 46 percent. In 41 plate appearances that ended with the pitch during the second span, lefties had two singles in 40 at-bats and struck out 29 times.
Across Luzardo’s entire arsenal, lefties hit .105 in the second span. His strikeout rate against them climbed from 26 percent to 44 percent.
The largest strategic change was when Luzardo threw the sweeper. With two strikes, its usage jumped from 43.3 percent to 56.4. His changeup use in those counts fell from 23.7 percent to 10.7.
“Analytically now, baseball is going towards, like, you throw your best pitch in favorable counts,” Luzardo said.
The sweeper’s chase rate climbed from 33 percent to 42 percent. Its putaway rate, the share of two-strike sweepers that produced a strikeout, rose from 27 percent to 32 percent.
“I think more guys just have a hole to a sweeper than they do to a changeup,” Luzardo said. “A lot of times changeup seems to be a weak-contact pitch. And if you’re looking for swing and miss, it’s probably something else, at least for me.”
The changeup was not obsolete. Luzardo said the choice remained lineup-dependent, but he found more chances to finish hitters with the sweeper.
More first-pitch strikes
Getting ahead was a separate adjustment. Luzardo did not describe it as a direct result of lowering his arm.
“I was struggling earlier,” Luzardo said. “I don’t think it was really because of that, but I was falling behind more.”
His overall zone rate barely changed, from 46.2 percent to 46.9. His first-pitch strike rate made a larger jump, from 59.8 percent to 65.4.
“I think that we just made a conscious effort, like, I need to get in the zone more. I need to start ahead more,” Luzardo said. “Whatever pitch that is, make sure it’s in the zone.”
Getting the first strike created more chances to use his sweeper. His overall chase rate increased only one point, from 33.2 percent to 34.2. The larger increase was concentrated against his best pitch.
The lower slot happened by feel. The commitment to early strikes was intentional. They developed together during the best stretch of his career, even if the data cannot assign each change an exact share of the credit.
Luzardo finished the regular season 14-5 with a 2.86 ERA and 221 strikeouts in 179 2/3 innings.
“He knows what he needs rather than, ‘I’m gonna go do what everyone else does, because that’s how it’s supposed to look,'” Lowy said.
The Phillies do not know how many innings Luzardo can give them Tuesday. Sunday showed that he could return to a major league mound. His final 16 starts explained why they were willing to put him back on one in Game 1.
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