Do the Cardinals have enough pitching to make a deep playoff run if they make it to the postseason? Most people, myself included, would say “no” without much hesitation. Even the most optimistic fans will quickly dismiss the idea that the Cards could make noise in October if they snag a wild card spot. Sure, this team is fun, but they are don’t have the pitching necessary to win a playoff series, let alone the three or four necessary to be crowned champions of the world! But… is this actually true? Are the Cardinals uniquely incapable of getting hot in the playoffs because of their lack of dominant pitching? If so, what does the pitching staff look like that gives them a real fighting chance?
Spoiler alert, I am not going to definitively answer these questions today, but I am going to try to provide a little anecdotal color to try to bring this image of a “World Series-caliber pitching staff” into a bit more focus.
To do this, I am going to look at each of the eight pitching staffs from the past four World Series participants and see how the Cards stack up. I am using just the last four seasons because that captures the entirety of the 12-team playoff era. Yes, it is a small sample size, but it will at least point us in the right direction.
Disclaimer: I am including the Cardinal comparisons throughout this article for reference (and for fun!). I am not under the illusion that the Cardinals are proper World Series contenders this season.
What does a World Series-caliber pitching staff look like? First, here are the team regular-season hitter and pitcher FanGraphs WAR totals and league (as in AL or NL, not MLB) rank for the last eight World Series teams. The winner is bolded and the Cardinals’ current pace is added for reference.
I am going to focus on the teams pitching staffs, but I did want to include the position player WAR for reference. It is interesting that the last eight league winners have largely been more impressive on the position player side of things with an average league rank of third compared to sixth on the pitching side.
It is remarkable how similar the Cardinals are to the 2023 Diamondbacks in aggregate WAR pace. The big difference: the Diamondbacks had peak Zac Gallen to fuel their push. The Cardinals have had one ace-type season from a starting pitcher (Jack Flaherty in 2019) since Adam Wainwright exited his prime.
Once the postseason rolls around, teams rely heavily on their best few pitchers and top bullpen arms.
Here is some data comparing the 2022-2025 regular-season pitcher utilization to the postseason utilization.
The pitcher rank for this table is based on innings pitched rather than a rate stat. This is not perfect for ranking the team’s best pitchers in the regular season, but it is a very good proxy, particularly in the postseason.
The biggest differences in utilization are at the top and bottom of the spectrum. Team’s top two pitchers threw 24% of regular-season innings combined but that total jumped all the way to 38% in the playoffs. At the bottom of the depth chart, pitchers ranked below 11 threw a full quarter of regular-season innings but only 4% of postseason innings.
So, what is the quality of these thoroughbreds that successfully led their teams to the pennant?
Pitcher #1
The average World Series leader in innings pitched has given his team 31 innings throughout the postseason. This Frankenstein ace had an average regular-season WAR of 3.8 with 9.4 strikeouts per nine. Here is how the Cardinals’ presumptive Game 1 starter Dustin May lines up.
If you buy into May’s FIP over his ERA, he is right there with this group of aces in terms of his current pace. The strikeouts lag a bit. Of course, May has less of a track record than any of these pitchers, so it remains to be seen if he can keep this up for the rest of the year, but his work to date is absolutely worthy of starting Game 1 or 2 of a playoff series.
Pitcher #2
Game 2 is where things get a little tricky. The second-most-used pitcher is expected to give his team 25 postseason innings. In this fantasy postseason, I am giving the ball to Andre Pallante. Unfortunately, our playoff opponents’ No. 2 starters are arguably even better than the No. 1s with lower ERAs and FIPs, and more strikeouts.
Pitcher #3
Game 3, I will turn to Michael McGreevy. Shockingly, we might have a fighting chance as McGreevy has a much better ERA than his average opponent with a comparable FIP. Interestingly, we already see relievers enter the fray as their team’s most used pitchers with Jose Leclerc and Luke Weaver. This group of pitchers kicked in 16 postseason innings, on average.
Pitcher #4
As we move down to fourth on the depth chart, we are squarely in reliever territory with the exception of Shohei Ohtani and Cristian Javier. This group of pitchers gave their teams an average of 14 playoff innings. We will turn to Riley O’Brien as our top comp.
Once again we are surprisingly competitive, if you don’t mind the lower strikeout rate. At this point, we have accounted for 58% of the innings needed to cover our playoff run, so I will cut out the detailed player stats. The remaining innings start to spread out a bit more. The Cardinals may actually set up decently here if you have confidence that Liberatore and Leahy could return to the bullpen and pitch pitch more effectively out of the bullpen. Teams’ fifth through seventh most-used playoff pitchers each need to cover around ten innings throughout the postseason. Here is how my presumptive picks would line up.
Pitcher #5
Pitcher #6
Pitcher #7
I came out of this review more optimistic than I expected. There are two obvious concerns: a glaring hole at the No. 2 spot in the rotation and the lack of strikeouts across the board is depressing. Still, if you buy into the sustainability of Dustin May’s underlying metrics, this staff has a plausible path to patching the innings needed to cover a playoff run. This is all before we consider Gastelum or any of the Memphis pitchers emerging as leverage arms down the stretch.
None of this changes the fact that the Cardinals have an uphill battle to make the playoffs and are likely to trade May at the deadline. The ultimate goal is to win a World Series and the betting markets and projection systems give the Cardinals only a 1% chance of pulling it off. That honestly feels like a fair number, so I am in no way arguing that the Cardinals should push chips in for this season… But if they make it in, I think the pitching could be enough to keep things interesting.