Category: MLB

Happy All-Star break to all who celebrate. May we all come away from this refreshed and ready for what awaits us in the next half, which kicks off Friday at home versus the Rangers.

This week is for rest and recovery, but also a secret third R: rehab.

The Braves (55-40) have announced that Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ha-Seong Kim will both begin rehab assignments with the FCL Braves. They play in North Port, Florida at noon today.

Acuña Jr. was placed on the 10-day IL with his second Grade 1 hamstring strain this season on June 10. This one was believed to be milder than the one that kept him on the shelf between May 3 and May 18. Even so, the Braves have understandably erred on the side of caution in not rushing him back.

Kim was placed on the 10-day IL on July 4 with right middle finger inflammation. We don’t need to belabor the season Kim is having, but here’s hoping something about this IL stint does him some good on the path to playing at a Major League level.

Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ha-Seong Kim today begin rehabilitation assignments with the FCL Braves.

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) July 13, 2026

More reinforcements are on the way – we will share updates on the statuses of Robert Suarez, Sean Murphy, Mike Yastrzemski, and more once available.

One of the key points we discovered last time when looking at catcher offense is that each position stands on its own. The big league average for bases per out is .676, but that number is rarely ever the most relevant number. At first glance, it would appear that Christian Walker should be an American League all-star. He is at worst solid defensively and he has added 20 home runs (as of this writing) by the all-star break. However, we might be signing a different tune when we look at the American League numbers.

We are setting up the same rules as we did last time. Qualifying players need at least 120 outs and have had to play some first base. This will obviously include some designated hitters, but DH is not really so much of a position as a sanctioned strategy. So, when we profile Yordan Alvarez later on, he will be profiled as a left fielder. Given those caveats, there are 19 players that qualify for the analysis.

What we are looking for is an analysis of mean and median. It is one thing to say that the average big league hitter has a ,676 BPO. It is another to look at first basemen and see what their average is. Mean is of course what most people know as the numerical average. Median is the number in the middle. When we have smaller data sets we will commonly see some discrepancies between the mean and the median.

Bases per out is calculated by adding total bases, walks, stolen bases, and hit by pitches and dividing it by total outs. The general idea is that it is more inclusive and accurate than OPS. It encompasses everything a player does offensively. How is Christian Walker doing as compared to the typical American League first basemen?

	Outs	TB	BB	SB	HBP	BPO
Nick Kurtz	251	166	76	7	2	1.000
Ben Rice	249	197	46	2	3	.996
Munetaka Murakama	162	114	44	1	2	.988
Willson Contreras	235	169	35	2	14	.936
Yandy Diaz	241	165	37	1	9	.880
Jonathan Aranda	253	156	51	0	7	.846
Pete Alonso	277	164	50	2	4	.794
Cody Clemens	232	145	21	6	5	.763
Paul Goldschmidt	178	114	17	1	3	.758
Christian Walker	279	164	32	0	7	.728
Spencer Torkelson	257	133	41	0	5	.696
Jake Burger	258	143	28	2	3	.682
Josh Bell	260	145	27	1	2	.673
Rhys Hoskins	183	78	42	0	3	.672
Nolan Schanuel	217	109	25	0	5	.641
Vlad Guerrero Jr.	261	115	40	6	4	.632
Josh Naylor	277	122	29	18	3	.621
Kyle Manzardo	213	95	32	0	4	.615
Vinnue Pasquantino	204	89	32	3	1	.613
Mean	236.1	135.9	41.1	2.7	4.5	.780
Median	241	139	35	1	3	.729

I certainly don’t have a degree in mathematics and I don’t teach it during the school year, but it isn’t difficult to see patterns. Generally speaking, the more success you have the more opportunities you get. So, the numbers on top are driving the mean up. This is the most important reason why the median makes more sense as a benchmark. If you look at who is literally in the middle it is Christian Walker.

Again, the components and the end results don’t quite add up because of the differences in opportunity. If you crunch those numbers in the median column you will not get .729. You will actually get .739. Either way, that number seems like a much more reasonable number when looking at the average of the position in the American League. We can also see clearly, that Walker really doesn’t have any business being near the All-Star game with the number of productive players we have here.

What is more interesting is pegging whether Walker is actually worth the 20 million dollars he is being paid. As per usual, that depends on how you phrase the question. In terms of pure value is actually probably pretty close. He was worth 0.3 BWAR last season, but has been worth 1.8 BWAR through the all-star break. That probably prorates to something around 3.0 BWAR. If each win is worth eight million dollars then he would need five WAR to equal that amount. He was worth 1.1 FWAR last year and has 1.6 FWAR this season. If we are to believe Fangraphs then he comes reasonably close overall and certainly earns his money this season. We can also look at his overall numbers as an Astro and compare that with BPO.

	Outs	TB	BB	SB	HBP	BPO
Christian Walker 2025-2026	740	410	72	2	18	.678

So, again this is a question of perspective. According to these numbers, Walker has been a league average hitter overall in his time in Houston. However, the numbers above would indicate that he is not an average first basemen. The NL may not have the heavyweights that the AL has at first base, so he might end up looking better in the overall scheme of things, but clearly whether he has been worth the expense depends greatly on how you ask the question.

In the last article, we asked what Diaz would need to do differently to help advance the Astros offense. Walker clearly just needs to keep doing what he is doing. If he ends up with between 30 and 35 home runs and close to 100 RBI then that feels like a really good season for him. One of the biggest mistakes that teams and fans make is that they expect that big time dollars somehow make you something you are not. Walker’s 2026 numbers are in line with his career numbers. He has been the guy that he was before he came to Houston in 2026. No one should have expected him to be anything more than that.

In their final turn at-bat in their final game of the ceremonial first half of the season, the San Diego Padres had their best inning of offensive execution, and the result was a 5-4 win over the Toronto Blue Jays. The win not only allowed the Padres to get their first series win of July it also sent them into the All-Star break with a .500 record at 48-48. Mason Miller, who locked down his 25th save of the season, is the lone All-Star for San Diego so the rest of the team will use the break to rest and reset for a potential playoff push in the second half of the year.

The Padres entered the bottom of the eighth inning trailing the Blue Jays, 4-3. Adrian Morejon allowed a run in the top of the inning during his second inning of work. Toronto turned to former closer Jeff Hoffman hoping to hold the lead and setup a potential save situation for their new closer, Louis Varland. Xander Bogaerts opened the inning with an infield single, which brought Manny Machado to the plate. Bogaerts stole second to move into scoring position, and Machado followed with a single into left-center field which tied the game at 4-4.

Gavin Sheets then grounded out to the shortstop, but Machado was able to advance to second on the play and was lifted for pinch-runner Jase Bowen. The rookie stole third base to put the winning run 90 feet away with Ty France at the plate with one out. France, who hit what proved to be the game-winning home run in the bottom of the sixth inning in the second game of the series, hit a deep fly ball into right-center field that carried all the way to the warning track. The ball was deep enough to allow Bowen to tag up and easily score from third base to put the Padres ahead, 5-4. Jake Cronenworth hit a two-out single, but the inning ended when Rodolfo Duran flied out to right field.

Miller came in for the save in the top of the ninth inning and made quick work of the three batters he faced. He got Ernie Clement to ground out to third base, Myles Straw to pop out to second base and put the punctuation mark on the inning and the game when he got Vladamir Guerrero Jr. to strikeout on three pitches with a nasty slider that finished in the left-hand batter’s box. Miller needed just eight pitches, seven of which were strikes, to ensure San Diego went into the break with some momentum for the second half of the season.

Machado’s game-tying hit in the bottom of the eighth inning was his third of the game. He finished the day 3-for-4 with an RBI and a run scored. Cronenworth was the only other Padres hitter to have a multi-hit game, finishing 2-for-4 with an RBI, which came in the second inning to score the first run of the game for San Diego.

German Marquez started the game for the Padres and lasted four innings. He allowed three runs on six hits with two walks and four strikeouts. He was hurt by the long ball as all three runs for the Blue Jays scored on home runs. Marquez allowed a solo home run in the first inning to Nathan Lukes and a two-run home run in the fourth inning to Clement.

San Diego returns to action on Friday on the road against the Kansas City Royals.

Padres News:

• In the second day of the MLB draft, the Padres selected multiple college players who might be able to impact the major league roster sooner than later.

• Ethan Salas and Kash Mayfield participated in the All-Star Futures Game with Salas recording a hit and Mayfield taking a loss.

• The earthquake in Venezuela affected multiple players across MLB and many are finding ways to show their support for their home country. Padres reliever Bradgley Rodriguez is one of those players.

• According to Dennis Lin of The Athletic, Padres general manager and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller wants to buy at the trade deadline, and the San Diego club will have to convince him to do so.

Baseball News:

• Dylan Cease of the Toronto Blue Jays and Christopher Sanchez of the Philadelphia Phillies have been named as the starters for the All-Star game.

• The Boston Red Sox stayed hot and went into the All-Star break on a nine-game road win streak.

• The San Francisco Giants beat the Colorado Rockies, 3-1.

• The Baltimore Orioles beat the Kansas City Royals that included the benches clearing following a hit-by-pitch that resulted in an injury for the Orioles.

• The Arizona Diamondbacks completed a sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

After not exactly lighting the world on fire in AAA, Brayan Bello nonetheless returned to the big leagues yesterday. And he shoved: 4.1 IP, 5 K, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB.

So the obvious question is: what now? The Red Sox do have room in the rotation — at least for now — with Ranger Suárez and Connelly Early on the IL. Moreover, as we saw in yesterday’s stunted start, the team is going to attempt to limit the workload of Payton Tolle in his first full season. Yet it must be said that Bello once again came out of the bullpen yesterday, and has not yet proven that he can be as effective in a starting role this year.

So what comes next for Bello? Is he thrown back into the rotation? Does he go in on a piggybacking timeshare with Tolle for the time being?

Use this space to talk about whatever you want. Be good to each other and go Sox.

Good morning.

Kennedi Landry writes that after MacKenzie Gore stepped up for a short notice start, Brandon Nimmo provided the walk-off to send the Texas Rangers to the All-Star break with a winning record.

Jeff Wilson writes that the walk-off win sends the Rangers to the break in first place in the American League West despite everything.

Shawn McFarland writes that the comeback win over Houston after they had lost a late lead shows that Skip Schumaker’s bid for clubhouse culture is taking shape.

Landry writes about the incoming draft class after the Rangers added 16 prospects on the draft’s final day yesterday.

McFarland writes that the Rangers are likely to sign potential first-round talent Brody Bumila after he slipped to them in the third round.

Landry writes that the big left-hander Bumila could be a steal for Texas but he will have to recover from arm surgery before he can make his mark.

McFarland notes that the Rangers had to spend light on Day 2 of the draft after jumping on some guys who fell to them on Day 1.

And, the Futures Game was yesterday and prospect Caden Scarborough tossed a scoreless inning with a strikeout representing the Rangers.

Have a nice day!

This is kind of a weird question, but hear me out.

As it stands right now, the Braves are on pace for a 94-win season. That’s pretty good! Of course, you all know about how June (especially June 9-30) was a nightmare, and the best the Braves have managed since is .500 ball. So, at the same time, the bar to clear is both reasonable (playing above a 94-win pace for 2.5 months) and perhaps very high up there (a team that is among the worst in MLB for the past six weeks playing above a 94-win pace for 2.5 months).

But, I want to flag something else, which is that despite their record, the Braves’ production has been mediocre. Part of this is a brief story about the edges of production: once your production is high enough, you win more than expected since both your run scoring and run prevention make it hard to lose; at the same time, when any of your production is low enough, it’s hard to win.

• Through June 8, the Braves were fourth in position player fWAR and ninth in pitching fWAR. However, the way in which they layered those got them way more wins than you’d expect from a top-ten team in both. I don’t really mean this is sequencing or a benefit from BABIP or anything, it’s more just that if you’re good at both, you can squeak out wins when one doesn’t fire. Combine that with some aggressive pitching management to make sure that you deploy the pitching when the offense isn’t pulling its weight, and yeah, that team probably shouldn’t have been 45-21, but that’s what happened.
• After June 8, the Braves are 29th in position player fWAR and 23rd in pitching fWAR. That’s really bad. They’re maybe a little lucky to have gone 10-19 (case in point, the game against the Cardinals on Sunday), but that’s also about what you’d expect a bottom ten team in both to do.

So, put that together, and the Braves are still riding a bit of a “our record is way better than our production” from earlier in the season.

Which brings me to my question: do you think that the Braves can get back to their 94-win pace over the 67 games that remain? I tend to think “no” unless they go back to the same type of management they were doing through the first two months… and even that’s a stretch, because the management has to result in the same rate of wins, which isn’t likely. But, that’s why I’m throwing it out there. What do you think?

The Futures Game is a big part of the All-Star weekend in which teams send representatives from their minor league system to participate in what amounts to a prospect list All-Star Game. The problem is that, while it should be something of a showcase event, MLB has decided in recent years to banish it when other MLB games are on and to shorten it to seven innings, both stupid ideas.

The question is: did you watch any of it? It really is a game that is for baseball sickos since there are probably a lot of names people that aren’t diehards do not know. We, of course, know Gage Wood, the pitcher that started the game for the National League side and most probably know Wei-Hui Pan, the right hander in the team’s organization. Other than that, you’d have to dig deep to know many of the names.

MLB should be doing more to promote this game.

When the Orioles traded for Blaze Alexander back in February, expectations were modest. The former 11th-round pick had been useful in his time with the Diamondbacks, showing positional versatility and some speed on the bases. But his outlook was still that of a bench player that could fill in here and there. And that’s similar to how the Orioles used him earlier this season until a combination of poor play around him and consistent performance from Alexander pushed him into a regular role. Now, with the 27-year-old on the IL with a broken hand for several weeks at least, the Orioles are left scrambling to replace him.

It won’t be easy. Alexander had become a force in the team’s lineup. He owns a .310/.368/.439 batting line on the season. That even includes some early-season struggles (.177/.250/.210 line in March/April) that bring his overall numbers down. Since May 25, Alexander is slashing .388/.442/.578 with four home runs, eight doubles, one triple, nine walks, and 21 strikeouts. You could make an argument that he has been one of the league’s absolute best hitters in that—rather lengthy—stretch.

Alexander’s breakthrough had seemingly solved one of the team’s biggest holes at third base. With Jordan Westburg on the shelf, the Orioles attempted to hand the job to Coby Mayo early in the year. But the young slugger hasn’t shown himself to be a viable everyday player. His .193/.264/.395 line this year is similar to what he produced in an underwhelming 2025 campaign.

However, Mayo has carved a fine niche for himself by crushing left-handed pitching to the tune of a 1.092 OPS this season. That’s an area where Alexander had struggled (.672 OPS this year), so little will change when the opposing team is starting a southpaw.

Against right-handed pitchers, however, this will present a problem for manager Craig Albernaz. And that’s a pretty massive issue, since three-quarters of major league pitchers throw with their right hand.

Mayo (.447 OPS against RHP this season) is virtually unplayable in those situations. Jeremiah Jackson runs hot and cold, and has a pedestrian .685 OPS against righties this season, but is the likely next man up in this situation. Jackson Holliday took some reps at third base during his rehab earlier this season, but someone needs to man second base, and it’s not as if Holliday has been a stud (.691 OPS) against right-handed pitching this season anyway.

The straightforward solution would be to use Jackson at third base against righties and Mayo against lefties. The duo would then sub in for one another late in games as the matchup dictates. Maybe the Orioles will catch lightning in a bottle with at least one of them.

Jackson has a .737 OPS since the start of June. That’s not awful, though he hasn’t walked at all in that stretch, has been sent down to Triple-A in the middle of it, and is a player that can struggle when overexposed. Mayo has a 1.026 OPS in the month of July, but he is being protected by his manager, rarely facing right-handed pitching at all. It will be difficult to maintain that balance with Alexander on the IL.

Holliday will also be impacted. His bat has been heating up recently (.263/.500/.316 line in July), and he takes some of the best at-bats on the team. But Albernaz has been cycling him in and out of the lineup fairly regularly to keep him fresh and take advantage of matchups. That won’t be as easy to do with Alexander out.

There are no top infield prospects down in Norfolk waiting to come up either. Christian Encarnacion-Strand could get a promotion though. He is already on the 40-man roster and boasts some solid season totals (.273/.309/.555, 17 home runs, 48 RBI), but he strikes out a bunch (30.6% K-rate this season in Triple-A), and owns just a 91 wRC+ across parts of three MLB seasons with the Reds.

Other options currently with the Tides include spring stud Bryan Ramos, who has just a .630 OPS this year, José Barrero, who is OPS’ing .807 and has played in parts of four big league seasons, or the familiar and light-hitting Luis Vàzquez. Both Barrero and Vàzquez can play shortstop, which would be nice to have since Alexander did serve as Gunnar Henderson’s backup, a role that would probably fall to Holliday at the moment.

None of these solutions are particularly attractive, especially with the expectation that Alexander could miss most of what’s left in the regular season, or more. The Orioles could hobble through a brief IL stint with what they have, but if they truly have playoff ambitions then they need something more at third base.

Perhaps the one silver lining of the entire situation is the timing. The Orioles front office now has a few days without games that they can use to evaluate their position, the trade landscape, and the sorts of moves they are willing to make. If they are truly going to pursue a playoff spot, adding an infielder has to be on their shopping list. It can be a third baseman, or it can be a second baseman that would allow them to platoon some combination of Mayo, Holliday, and Jackson at the hot corner.

The trade deadline isn’t for another three weeks, so teams may be reticent to make a move now. Only a handful of clubs are truly “out” of the playoff race. The Royals, Angels, Athletics, Mets, Reds, Giants, and Rockies might be the only clubs ready to sell. And then from that group only a couple of them have players that would fit the Orioles needs and be available in a trade.

Luis Arraez is on an expiring deal and has been tremendous on an otherwise disastrous Giants squad. If the Tigers decide to sell, Gleyber Torres would be a useful hitter towards the bottom of the order. Brett Baty from the Mets would be a risky but intriguing addition that comes with years of team control.

These are all purely speculative, but represent the sort of “throw everything at the wall and see what sticks” ideas that the Orioles could be tossing around this week. But as always it comes down to cost of getting that deal done. Mike Elias has shown a willingness to be aggressive at previous trade deadlines, but he often avoids the absolute top of the market. Maybe that perspective shifts if he believes his job is on the line with another disappointing season.

The draft is never the No. 1 tool in the Yankees’ toolbox when it comes to building a contending roster, but it’s not one they can ever truly ignore. They’ll always use their financial might to get some of the best talent money can buy in pinstripes, but in a league that’s quickly becoming one where they’re not the pre-eminent spending power and with the upcoming labor negotiations threatening to put everyone on a similar playing field, getting cheap talent is becoming more and more important.

However you feel about some of these guys, there’s no doubt the quality of the Yankees’ drafts has improved since the COVID-19 pandemic. The team finally found its first true franchise cornerstone bat since Aaron Judge in the 12th round in 2021 in Ben Rice, and concurrently seems to have unearthed their first homegrown ace since Andy Pettitte (did 2017-18 Sevy count?) in former seventh-rounder Cam Schlittler, while also producing a bunch of big leaguers that have filled up the margins of rosters around the league.

The 2026 draft has come and gone. As usual, the Yanks had one of the lowest draft slot values, made even lower when their first-round pick was dropped 10 spots due to exceeding the luxury tax. As such, they don’t have as much money to play with when it comes to over- and under-slot guys compared to revenue-sharing teams that get free top draft picks for existing.

As such, they have a playbook they like to stick by. Here’s a few rules of that playbook over the last few years:

• College arms are the priority, especially tall, projectable righties.
• Of the hitters the team selects, they’re usually college bats. Most of them have a serious power tool, but a few contact bats slip through. Of those college bats, don’t bother with catchers. We do good enough internationally with them.
• Don’t play around with the high school circuit. You don’t have the money to sign a lot of them.
• The exception to the rule above is the first round. With your first pick, feel free to draft a prep shortstop.

Those four rules can be found across the last five draft classes, but the Yankees didn’t seem to care all that much about their prior playbook this year. Pretty much every rule was violated to some extent. Is it an aberration, a new trend, or something that the team viewed as necessary given the current state of the farm?

I’ll start at the jump, where the Yankees selected left-handed pitcher Hunter Dietz out of Arkansas. It’s not too dissimilar to their picking Ben Hess out of Alabama two years ago, but he’s a better prospect with better results at the time of drafting. It’s the first time the Yankees have picked a southpaw pitcher with their first selection since Jacob Lindgren in 2014. Even odder? They doubled up with Sean Duncan in the second round, marking the first time they picked a pair of lefties to start a draft since Eric Milton and Jason Coble in 1996.

What’s also interesting about these two? They went a bit below where they were supposed to because of recent injuries. Dietz underwent surgery in the fall of 2023 before a setback took him out of baseball for pretty much two years. Before his stellar 2026 campaign, he had tossed 1.2 career D1 innings. Duncan recently underwent Tommy John surgery and likely won’t make his pro debut until 2028, but he is a high-school arm with plenty of time to rehab.

On that high school note, the Yankees aren’t big on prep arms early in the draft, either. They last picked one of those in the first five rounds in 2021 with Brock Selvidge. Duncan is the highest-drafted prep pitcher by the organization since picking Matt Sauer No. 54 in 2017.

What we certainly didn’t expect was that he’d be the first of several prep draftees for the Yankees. They picked four high schoolers for just the second time in the last nine drafts.

Prep players taken by year:

2026: 3 (so far)
2025: 1
2024: 1 (unsigned)
2023: 4
2022: 0
2021: 3 (2 signed)

*First 20 rounds*

2019: 2 (1 signed)
2018: 3
2017: 3
2016: 5 (4 signed)

Not something we’re used to.

— Yankees Prospect Watch (@NYY_Prospects) July 12, 2026

That 2023 draft saw them go with George Lombard Jr. early and a trio of guys late in Josh Tiedemann, Danny Flatt, and Puerto Rico native Wilson Rodriguez. They signed all four of them, but that might be because only Lombard needed to be lured away from a major baseball school. While Tiedemann was a TCU commit, Flatt was signed to Lipscomb and Rodriguez didn’t have a college offer.

In this draft, they’re going to have to lure guys away from Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, James Madison, and Texas Tech. They took a swing on Andrew Gonzalez out of the El Paso area in the sixth round before throwing some late fliers at Lee Garris out of Virginia and William Cutshall out of South Carolina. Three prep bats are a real rarity for the organization to draft with their limited assets, so I’m interested to see if the men in charge have something up their sleeves to get all four prep guys to put pen to paper.

On the bats in general, the Yankees picked a lot more of them than I thought they would. Their organizational philosophy of late has been to put their eggs in the position player market internationally while going after the projectable college arms in the draft, but this year? They only picked eight pitchers out of 20, the fewest since 2007.

Additionally, the team also selected two catchers in the first 10 rounds. This usually isn’t something to bat an eye at, but for this organization? It’s something notable. The Yankees under Tanner Swanson have helped develop a lot of big league catchers, but almost all of them were either drafted elsewhere, undrafted, or international signings:

• JC Escarra: minor league free agent
• Rodolfo Duran: minor league free agent
• Carlos Narvaez: international signing
• Mickey Gasper: drafted pre-2020
• Rafael Flores Jr.: undrafted free agent
• Jesus Rodriguez: international signing
• Agustin Ramirez: international signing
• Omar Martinez: international signing

There are a bunch more who spent a very brief time in the organization, but you get the point. Since drafting Austin Wells in the first round in 2020 until this year, the Yankees have only drafted three catchers: Ben Rice (12th round, 2021), Dominic Keegan (19th round, 2021), and Tomas Frick (13th round, 2023). Rice, obviously, came up as a first baseman and might never catch again; Keegan didn’t sign, and Frick is currently in Double-A.

Entering this draft, though, it was pretty obvious they needed to refill the coffers. The team emptied its organizational catching depth at last year’s deadline, and they’ve spent all season giving minor league journeymen at-bats in the upper minors. While guys like Engelth Urena, Josue Gonzalez, and Luis Puello have been plying their trade in A-ball, they needed a talent infusion.

So, for the first time in six years, they spent a pick in the first 10 rounds on a catcher. They even doubled down by picking two different SEC backstops in the first half of the draft for the first time since picking Anthony Seigler and Josh Breaux at the top of the 2018 draft. While Brendan Brock, the Oklahoma product, could wind up in the outfield with his genuine plus speed, they both seem to have a real shot at sticking behind the plate.

Those last two trends speak to a shift in the team’s philosophy for this draft. They’ve spent the last five years building considerable pitching depth in the organization, which has gotten guys like Schlittler and Will Warren major league starting jobs, while minor league affiliates up and down the system were picked with pretty favorable selections.

The Yankees need position player prospects. They cleaned out a lot of the intriguing guys in the last year via trade. At this point, with Spencer Jones on the brink of graduating and Lombard not far behind, their only highly rated hitting prospect is 2025 first-rounder Dax Kilby, who’s played one game this year due to recurring hamstring issues. Who’s their second-best hitting prospect after him? It’s hard to tell.

The fruits of this draft class won’t be seen for quite some time, but the Yankees seem to be changing things up to increase the upside of this class. Instead of punting some of the late picks they won’t sign, they grabbed a few Power Four sluggers who they’re banking on continuing to slug up the minor league ladder.

The true upside of this class is going to rely on their ability to squeeze these guys into their rather diminutive bonus pool. Four prep guys, plus multiple small college transfers with offers from big-time schools that come with six-figure NIL salaries gives a wide range of outcomes for just how many actually join the organization.

Will going away from their fastball pay off in the end? We’ll know soon enough.

Meet the Mets

The Mets were swept by the Red Sox 3-2 in the final game before the All-Star break. Zach Thornton had his best start yet, throwing seven scoreless innings and allowing just two hits while striking out five batters.

Choose your recap: Amazin’ Avenue, MLB.com, Newsday, New York Daily News, New York Post, The Athletic

In order to make room for Thornton, the Mets optioned Tobias Myers back to Syracuse yesterday.

After yesterday’s gem of a start, Thornton will begin the second half of the season with a spot in the Mets’ rotation.

Despite his recent struggles, Andy Green says he isn’t currently considering replacing Devin Williams as the team’s closer with Luke Weaver.

A rom-com starring Chris Pine was shot yesterday at Citi Field during the game, with Pine taking the field to throw a first pitch.

Jon Heyman has six steps for David Stearns to begin cleaning up the mess that is the New York Mets.

For New York sports fans, who wasn’t at the Futures Game was just as notable as who was.

The 2026 amateur draft wrapped up yesterday, with the Mets’ slate fully selected.

Marcus Semien has begun a rehab assignment with Double-A Binghamton and went deep in his first game.

Around the National League East

The Nationals lost to the Yankees 5-3. Andrew Alvarez collected the loss, giving up three runs in two innings of relief behind Cade Cavalli.

The Phillies beat the Tigers in a 5-0 shutout. Zack Wheeler threw six scoreless innings, giving up just two hits and struck out ten batters in a performance very becoming of a non-All-Star.

The Marlins ended their great first half with a not-so-great 5-2 loss to the Guardians. Griffin Conine drove in one of the Marlins two runs with a solo home run off of All-Star reliever Cade Smith.

The Braves squeaked out a 4-3 win over the Cardinals in the ninth inning. The go-ahead run was scored by Ozzie Albies in the top of the ninth thanks to a Masyn Winn throwing error.

Phillies pitcher Cristopher Sánchez was announced as the starting pitcher for the All-Star Game on Tuesday at his home ballpark.

Around Major League Baseball

Yankees starter Cam Schlittler will not be pitching in the All-Star Game, instead using the time off to focus on preparation for the second half.

MLB broke down how every teams prospects performed at this year’s Futures Game.

While he won’t be completely unavailable, Logan Webb and the Giants have asked that Webb only be used in the All-Star Game if there’s no other options left.

The starting pitcher for the American League in the All-Star Game will be Blue Jays starter Dylan Cease.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Brian Salvatore took a trip down memory lane with the past Mets representatives at the Futures Game.

Steve Sypa delivered two Mets draftee profiles, one being fifth round pick Luke McNeillie and the other being sixth rounder Alex Petrovic.

This Date in Mets History

On this day back in 1988, the Mets had four players representing them at the All-Star Game, including Doc Gooden, Daryl Strawberry, and Gary Carter.

Rangers 6, Asttos 5

• So, basically, we have had a repeat of the Angels series immediately preceding.
• I discussed in the previous two thoughts posts how each of those games mirrored the corresponding game in the Anaheim series.
• Well, the same thing happened again. This game mirrored the final game of the Anaheim series.
• The Rangers got out to a lead, the opposition had a big seventh inning, and then the Rangers walked it off in the ninth.
• Big ups to MacKenzie Gore, the starter in the Wednesday blowout by Anaheim, who volunteered to make the start on short rest with Jacob deGrom unavailable.
• Gore gave the Rangers 65 pitches over four innings, allowing just a Jose Altuve home run.
• Of course, that left five innings to be covered by the bullpen, which is often problematic.
• Such was the case here. Tyler Alexander and Cole Winn combined to give the Rangers a pair of scoreless innings. That was followed by Robby Ahlstrom and Peyton Gray combining to allow three runs in one inning, allowing the Astros to tie up the game.
• Ben Peoples then gave up a homer in the eighth to Cam Smith to put the Astros ahead by one.
• Ultimately, the fact that we are asking Robby Ahlstrom, Peyton Gray and Ben Peoples to pitch late in high leverage situations is the real problem, and one would expect to see Chris Young & Co. acquiring some relief arms later this month.
• It all worked out, though. Kyle Higashioka homered in the 8th. Wyatt Langford, Josh Jung and Brandon Nimmo all singled in the ninth, off of Josh Hader, no less. The winning run scored, and we all could be happy.
• Texas is up 1.5 games in the West on Seattle, and 3 on Houston. The Wild Card race has tightened up somewhat, with Seattle and Minnesota tied for WC3, and Boston just a half-game back of them. The White Sox and Guardians are tied in the A.L. Central and for WC2, and I keep waiting for the ChiSox to fall off, but they haven’t.
• Last year, the Rangers went into the break 8.5 games back in the division, 3.5 games back of WC3.
• The Rangers are in a better place this year.
• MacKenzie Gore hit 96.9 mpg with his fastball, averaging 95.3 mph. Tyler Alexander hit 92.9 mph with his fastball. Cole Winn reached 91.5 mph with his cutter. Robby Ahlstrom’s fastball reached 96.5 mph. Peyton Gray’s fastball touched 94.6 mph. Ben Peoples maxed out at 98.2 mph with his fastball. Jacob Latz hit 95.1 mph with his fastball.
• Elias Diaz had a 107.0 mph groundout. Kyle Higashioka had a 106.7 mph home run. Evan Carter had a 105.0 mph groundout and a 102.1 mph double. Josh Jung had a 102.5 mph triple. Brandon Nimmo had a 102.3 mph groundout. Wyatt Langford had a 102.0 mph fly out and a 100.3 mph groundout.
• It’s the All Star Break. The Rangers are a game and a half up. Smoke ‘em if you’ve got ‘em.

With All-Star week upon us, I wanted to share a few favorite All-Star memories, beginning with 1984.

In 1984, for the first time, more than one of our players was named to the All-Star team—we had three: Dave Stieb, Damaso Garcia, and Alfredo Griffin.

Stieb earned his fourth All-Star nod that year. He ultimately set the franchise record with seven All-Star selections (Roy Halladay was named six times as a Jay). In 1984, for the second consecutive year, Stieb was picked as the starting pitcher. He delivered another stellar season; at the break, he was 9-3 with a 2.42 ERA, and opponents were hitting just .210 against him. He finished 16-8 with a 2.83 ERA, as the team placed second in the AL East at 89-73—15 games behind the eventual World Series champion Detroit Tigers.

Stieb didn’t replicate his strong start from the 1983 game. Steve Garvey singled after ground outs by Tony Gwynn and Ryne Sandberg, then advanced to second on a Reggie Jackson error. Garvey scored on Dale Murphy’s single to left, colliding with catcher Lance Parrish at the plate—Parrish was charged with an error for dropping the ball, so Stieb wasn’t credited with an earned run. Stieb then struck out Mike Schmidt—always impressive to fan one of the best third basemen in baseball history.

In the second, Stieb struck out Darryl Strawberry before giving up a solo homer to Expos catcher Gary Carter, who would be named game MVP. He then retired Ozzie Smith on a grounder and Chili Davis on a lineout to end his two-inning outing. The NL went on to win 3-1, with Stieb taking the loss. He faced four future Hall of Famers.

Garcia made his first All-Star team in 1984 and repeated the honor the following year. He exemplified the kind of middle infielder popular at the time: decent batting average, little power, few walks, and just enough speed to steal bases at nearly a break-even rate. At the break, Damaso was hitting .303/.329/.394, with 27 steals and 48 runs scored—a strong first half. By today’s standards, you’d want him to draw more walks, get on base more often, and maybe provide some extra power. He finished the season with a .284/.310/.374 line, 46 steals, and 79 runs scored.

Damaso entered the game in the bottom of the sixth, replacing starter Lou Whitaker. He had an at-bat in the eighth, popping out foul, and made one play in the field.

But what makes this story a favorite of mine is Griffin’s role. Griffin is arguably one of the least deserving All-Star picks ever. He was a defense-first shortstop in the John McDonald mold, but in 1984, even his hitting lagged behind Johnny Mac’s standards. At the break, Alfredo was hitting .241/.250/.317. Playing nearly every day, he had only 3 walks, 10 extra-base hits, 6 steals (caught 3 times), and 31 runs scored. He didn’t improve after the break, finishing with a .241/.248/.298 line, 4 homers, and 30 RBI. Notably, he posted a walk rate of just 0.9%—less than 1%. So, sorry Clement, I shouldn’t be so hard on you for not taking walks.

So how did Alfredo end up on the team? Back then, MLB provided All-Star players with plane tickets and a hotel room for two. Usually, the player would bring his wife or girlfriend (just a joke!). Damaso invited his friend and teammate, Griffin, to join him in San Francisco. The day before the game, Alan Trammell injured his arm and couldn’t play. With a last-minute roster spot and no time to fly in another player, AL manager Joe Altobelli gave the spot to Griffin—“partly because he’s a fine player, but mostly because he was here.” He made the team simply for being in the right place at the right time.

Griffin entered the game in the bottom of the sixth, replacing Cal Ripken, but never got to bat—Don Mattingly pinch-hit for him in the ninth. He did record an assist on defense. That was his lone All-Star appearance.

I love this story. No matter how much voters or managers might mess up today, you’ll never see someone with a season like Griffin’s make an All-Star team again. He made it just by being there, fitting the uniform—and that’s the whole story.

The Guardians swept the Marlins to end pre-break play and made their selections for rounds 5-20 yesterday.

Brian Hemminger has highlights of day two of the draft listed for you here and we will have a full draft class breakdown up soon.

Congratulations to our 2026 MLB Draft selections ⭐️#GuardsBallpic.twitter.com/AO3VezW0D4

— GuardsInsider (@GuardsInsider) July 13, 2026

Nicole recapped an encouraging win and series sweep here. Chase DeLauter and Steven Kwan enter the break on quite a heater and Travis Bazzana does not.

Ralphy Velazquez got an RBI hit in MLB’s Futures’ Game yesterday and made a nice play at first base:

Ralphy Velazquez showing why he is MLB's No. 1 first base prospect 🌟@GuardsInsider | @CleGuardians | #FuturesGamepic.twitter.com/cuO0EvOPcd

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 12, 2026

The Guardians made a bunch of exciting internal promotions yesterday and we say goodbye to Wuilfredo Antunez, Tommy Mace and Joe Lampe.

The Cleveland Guardians Player Development System has announced the following moves:

Promote OF Juneiker Caceres and LHP Harrison Bodendorf from Single-A Hill City to High-A Lake County.

Promote INF Dean Curley, OF Aaron Walton, OF Ryan Cesarini, OF/1B Nolan Schubart, and LHP…

— GuardsInsider (@GuardsInsider) July 13, 2026

I liked Antunez and Mace for a while, they just couldn’t get over the last few hurdles to become more than minor-leaguers.

MLB’s Home Run Derby is at 8PM tonight on Netflix. Here’s a preview of the field.

AROUND MLB:

The White Sox and Twins won and the Tigers and Royals lost. The Royals are 21 games under .500 so I am going to stop reporting what they did here unless they make a miraculous comeback. The shock of the pre-break portion of the season HAS to be the Mets being 17 games under .500.

With the All-Star Break now here, it was a busy weekend on and off the field for every MLB team. For the Braves, they were able to end the first half of the season on a positive note with a win over the Cardinals. Though they lost the series, the Braves now get a chance to really reset the roster to start the second half of the season strong.

Atlanta also continued to stack their future as they added more talent via the MLB Draft. Of course, the main story line from the weekend was the Braves adding college outfield bats in the first round. This includes top pick A.J. Gracia, whom plenty of notable sources continue to think is a good to great addition for the Braves.

Braves News

The Stripers decided to show off their power over the weekend.

Having his mom along for the ride is the coolest experience for Drake Baldwin as he enjoys his first All-Star game appearance.

MLB News

Christopher Sanchez and Dylan Cease will start the All-Star Game.

Here is how the 8 home run hitters could be favored in tonight’s Home Run Derby.

Zac Gallen will go on the injured list with elbow inflammation.

For the next few weeks we’ll be doing some theorizing on optimal returns at the trade deadline as the Red Sox look to do another teardown amidst a hopeless season. Except the season might not be hopeless anymore.

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The Red Sox swept the Yankees, then dropped two of three at home to the Nationals—nobody is putting that one in the highlight reel—then went right back out and swept the Angels and the White Sox. And now the Mets. Now NINE wins in a row after yesterday afternoon’s victory in Queens, 17-6 in their last 23 games. 14-2 in their last 16. The standings now genuinely astound me; the trajectory of the 2026 Boston Red Sox has changed, and Craig Breslow has a decision in front of him that he probably didn’t think he’d have to make three weeks ago: does he stick to selling, or does he pivot?

Aroldis Chapman was supposed to be the headliner of the sale. Sonny Gray was supposed to be the prize contenders were lining up for. Willson Contreras was in that conversation too if this was going to be a true teardown. If Craig Breslow is pivoting to buyer mode—even lightly—all three of those conversations flip. You don’t trade your best arm, your most consistent arm in the rotation, and your thumping first baseman when you’re going for it. You keep them and find ways to add around them.

So what does Boston need? A middle infielder who can stay healthy first—this roster cannot absorb another injury to a key position. Another arm to soak up innings behind a rotation still missing both Connelly Early and Garrett Crochet, with Patrick Sandoval just making his debut in the series finale in Chicago. And bullpen reinforcement for when games actually matter. None of that is impossible, and all of it has a cost.

Infield

Jeremy Peña, SS—Houston Astros

Matt Chapman, 3B—San Francisco Giants

Matt Shaw, INF—Chicago Cubs

Houston has spent most of this decade being insufferable in the best possible way—winning the division, winning the World Series, winning everything—so it is genuinely satisfying to watch them look confused in 2026. Is this the definition of schadenfreude?

They’ve had three managers since the cheating scandal: AJ Hinch was fired within two months of the scandal breaking, just before the 2020 season got underway; Dusty Baker came in and turned them back into champions before riding off into the sunset after 2023. Now it’s Joe Espada trying to keep the lights on with what’s left. The core of that juggernaut has aged out or moved on—Jose Altuve experimenting with and failing in left field, George Springer landing in Toronto, Alex Bregman becoming a Cub (*grumbles*)—which means July gets interesting for a team with no clear direction. OK, Carlos Correa still has a +121 OPS coming back to Houston from Minnesota, whatever.

Jeremy Peña is the shortstop Jeff Passan links him to Boston in his deadline top 100, though not as a headliner—he appears as a name in the mix, not the centerpiece of a rumor. Worth knowing before you get too excited: Peña has spent real time on the IL each of the last few seasons, hamstrings mostly, a shoulder at various points. He’s the kind of player who doesn’t always make it through a full calendar without something going sideways. On a team that has already been doing lineup math with its middle infield (looking at you Mayer and Story, sorry), adding another guy who can’t stay on the field is the wrong move. The problem is that when he’s on, he’s a contact-hitting, elite base-running machine. His ceiling is high enough that you still make the call, but you go in with your eyes open.

Matt Chapman has emerged as one of the more intriguing position players in deadline chatter this summer—Heyman has him as a name to watch, contract and all. San Francisco is in enough turmoil right now that it’s worth paying attention to. The fit is clean: multiple Gold Gloves, real power (though that may be gone even with his incredible bat speed), proven in big markets. And then there’s the other part of this. The Red Sox traded Rafael Devers to the Giants. Buster Posey’s team now has Devers. Boston could go right back to San Francisco and ask for their third baseman in return—which, when you say it out loud, is just kind of funny. We gave them our guy and then asked if we could have their guy. Incredible reversals for each franchise. Do it anyway.

The Sox were linked to both Matt Shaw and Nico Hoerner in the winter, but Hoerner just extended with Chicago—he’s clearly a piece the Cubs are building around. Does that push Shaw further down the depth chart and make him more available? It might, though the Cubs aren’t likely to sell any key pieces as they head to the playoffs.

Starting Pitching

Michael Wacha—Kansas City Royals

Joe Ryan—Minnesota Twins

Jack Flaherty—Detroit Tigers

Brady Singer—Cincinnati Reds

Bringing Michael Wacha back to Boston would be kinda cute. He was a genuine workhorse here, the kind of arm that shows up every fifth day and doesn’t make your life complicated, and he’s been reliable again in Kansas City. A bulk arm who eats five or six innings, keeps you in games, and doesn’t need to be managed like a fragile artifact is exactly what this rotation needs right now, even with Payton Tolle and Jake Bennett holding down the fort. His offspeed changeup is one of the best pitches in baseball, a continued sign that an older starter found a way to stay valuable. The cost is low and the fit is obvious.

Joe Ryan is the more interesting call because there were real rumors last trade deadline that Boston was going after him and it never materialized. Minnesota would want a significant return, and Ryan has had his injury issues, but when he’s right he’s legitimately good. More to the point: Brayan Bello is in AAA. Tanner Houck just started mound work in his return from what has been a lengthy recovery. Kutter Crawford is doing whatever Kutter Crawford is doing in Florida to come back from his myriad maladies (it’s head, shoulders, knees and toes it feels like), and frankly, he’s becoming as much of an enigma as Houck. At some point, Breslow has to decide whether he’s waiting for these guys to come back and bolster depth, or whether he’s ready to win now with what’s in front of him. Ryan is the kind of acquisition that answers that question. He’s still an unquestioningly dominant pitcher, most Savant percentiles in the mid-80s to 90s: aka a lot of red.

Jack Flaherty will get some attention like he always does—his name has come up in every deadline cycle in the last few seasons—and he’s a veteran who knows how to start games and survive lineups. Brady Singer is the question mark, and that’s exactly the point. Andrew Bailey has been known to make champagne happen on a beer budget: find the right guy whose numbers don’t look like much in Cincinnati, put him in a different context, and squeeze what’s actually there. Brady Singer is an innings eater on a team that has no use for him right now. That can be useful for someone else. Though who knows if Singer’s Savant metrics—all pitches under the 7th percentile in value—leave room to squeeze anything out of.

Bullpen

Anthony Bender / Lake Bachar—Miami Marlins

Antonio Senzatela—Colorado Rockies

Kirby Yates—Los Angeles Angels

Miami is a relief pitcher vending machine every July and this year should be no different. Anthony Bender, Lake Bachar, Pete Fairbanks, pick one or pick two—the Marlins will listen because the Marlins always listen. These are legitimate arms who can pitch in high-leverage situations without giving you a heart attack every appearance, and the cost is usually manageable because Miami is looking for depth and upside, not finished pieces. Bachar has an xBA of .198, Bender at .194—that’s legitimately impressive stuff.

Antonio Senzatela from Colorado is the one nobody is writing about (except for Passan in the top 100), which feels appropriate because the Rockies continue to go nowhere: an age-old tradition at this point. Senzatela has been better than his situation suggests. Pitching in Coors Field is hard; get him to Fenway and the numbers could look even better. His Savant still shows a good fastball with 91 run value and 88 velo!

Kirby Yates is the veteran late-inning option. The Brad Ziegler comparison comes up naturally, but it’s worth being specific: Ziegler came in 2016 because Craig Kimbrel was hurt and the back end of the pen needed emergency support. This is a completely different situation. Aroldis Chapman is healthy, is an All-Star again, and is already the anchor of this bullpen. Yates working in tandem with him would be a choice, not a patch job—two legitimate late-inning arms for a team trying to win games that matter. Yates has been effective in Anaheim—a WHIP of 1.00 suggests better stuff than his 3.35 ERA shows-and the Angels will listen. The question is whether Boston wants to pay for that or piece it together from the Marlins’ inventory. Both are defensible.

“Our Additions Are Coming From Within”

Of course, there’s another possibility. After a very mum deadline comes and goes, Breslow walks into his media availability—or joins the Zoom room—and explains that he believes in this group. That the lineup looks different when Roman Anthony gets back. That Crochet is on track. That the best moves Boston can make right now are the ones already happening inside the organization.

Every fanbase in baseball has heard this speech. Front offices give it every year when they’ve decided the asking price is too high, or the window isn’t open enough, or the prospect capital is too valuable to spend. September usually follows with the team finishing nine games out while the GM explains that the young players needed development time. This elicits such an eyeroll from this writer, but honestly, I could so see this happening with an ambivalent attitude towards the market in either direction come Deadline day.

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The Red Sox have gone 14-5 in their last nineteen games and swept three consecutive series. The second half could be real. What none of us want is the version of this we’ve seen before—the team that enters the All-Star break with momentum, generates a deadline conversation, then spends August doing what Red Sox teams in recent years have done: fatigue sets in, stupid mistakes pile up, the mentality that carried them through June disappears somewhere around the end of July. Boston has very little time to show us whether this run is what it looks like. The deadline is the first real answer.