Category: MLB

This morning, Spencer Nusbaum wrote about the state of the Nationals pitching staff entering 2027, and there was one thing that stood out. He said that Paul Toboni indicated Jake Irvin had “put himself in good position to compete for a rotation spot”. Given the way Irvin has pitched for the past 2.5 seasons, I find that to be discouraging. 

Also in The Athletic this AM: Rumblings on the Nats’ plans to improve their pitching next year, including details on an analytics department that they are becoming more confident in by the day: https://t.co/4wszWRh3kG

— Spencer Nusbaum (@spencernusbaum_) November 12, 2026

Back in 2024, Jake Irvin had a solid season, carried by a great first half. He posted a 4.41 ERA in 187.2 innings with 2 fWAR. Those are solid back of the rotation numbers. However, things have fallen apart since then. In 2025, he posted a 5.70 ERA and this season he had a 5.48 earned run average. With lower velocity and home run struggles, things have not been pretty for Irvin.

Given how bad things have been, I would be quite pessimistic about giving Irvin yet another year in the rotation. We have a very long sample size of Irvin not being effective now. Since the All-Star break of 2024, Jake Irvin has posted a 5.68 ERA in 358.1 innings. I get that the Nats trust their player development team, but running it back with Irvin in the rotation does not make much sense.

In some ways, I get why people would like Irvin. He is a big, strong right hander who generates a ton of extension and throws from a low arm slot. By all accounts, he is a great guy and hard worker as well. I actually think he could have success in the bullpen because of the fact he has shown the ability to sit in the mid-90’s for short bursts.

Lost in my coverage of Sunday's games was a very encouraging performance by Jake Irvin. Starting with a drastically lower arm slot, Irvin's fastball sustained its ride to push it to a plus offering. He also altered his slider to give it more loft. He is a name to follow! pic.twitter.com/RsOKuVQgmn

— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) March 30, 2026

A big reason why the Nats seem to have faith in Irvin is because they believe that with the right development, he can sit at 95 MPH deep into starts. That is what Nusbaum wrote in his piece. However, I am not as convinced about this. Velocity fluctuation has been a problem for years now with Irvin. Will the light just suddenly come on for a pitcher who is about to turn 30 years old?

That is what the team seems to hope for. Right now, he is working in West Palm Beach trying to increase that velocity. I will have to see it to believe it though because Irvin has been trying to solve this velocity problem for years now. In my opinion, the best way to solve that issue is to move him to the bullpen and just let him rip.

We have a multi-year sample of Jake Irvin being an ineffective starting pitcher. Not many guys get a third opportunity after back to back seasons with an ERA over 5.45. I am pretty confused about why things should be different for Irvin.

From 2005-20, the Nationals had only 1 pitcher with 100 IP and an ERA over 5.50 (Ramon Ortiz in 2006).

Since 2021, they've had 9:
Patrick Corbin (2021-22, 2024)
Erick Fedde (2022)
Trevor Williams (2023)
Mitchell Parker (2025)
Miles Mikolas (2026)
Jake Irvin (2025-26)

— Mark Zuckerman (@MarkZuckerman) September 26, 2026

If a pitcher goes down and you have to find someone to fill in, Irvin can do that. However, rolling into 2027 with Irvin in the starting five is just asking for trouble. Apparently, the Nats are likely to hold on to CJ Abrams, at least partially due to the fact they want to compete in 2027. Jake Irvin being in the rotation does not line up with that idea.

I really like Jake Irvin as a person, and his fastball-curveball combination can be money when he is on point. However, we have given him plenty of chances and things have not worked out. After winning 11 more games than last year, can the Lerner’s finally invest in this team and help this pitching staff.

Even if the budget is limited, I would want Paul Toboni to get creative and find different ways to fill out the rotation. Whether that is trading Dylan Crews for pitching or taking some higher risk fliers, those would be better than running it back with Irvin.

After last season, the expectations have been raised. We know this offense will at least be solid, especially with Abrams coming back. Now there needs to be some investment in the pitching staff. While player development is part of the equation, we need more talented arms to come into the fold.

I am not asking Lerner and Toboni to go out and get Tarik Skubal here. Just show the fans you are serious about winning and building a competent pitching staff. If the goal is to push for a Wild Card spot in 2027, the Nats have to aggressively look to upgrade the pitching staff with outside additions.

We have been doing this for a few years now: looking at the top free agents, using the contract Ben Clemens suggests he’ll get, and asking whether you would like the Jays to give him that contract. This year, the lockout makes it a little more complicated. Keith Law’s list is here. Ben Clemens’ is here.

Number 4 on Ben Clemens list and number 10 on Keith Law’s is Michael King.

King declined a $28 million option for 2027, taking a $5 million buyout instead.

He had a nice 2026, with a 3.21 ERA in 32 starts, with a 12-10 and a 4.3 bWAR (you don’t opt out of $28 million if you had a bad season). I bet you are thinking of checking your employment contract to see how much you would be paid if you quit.

King has been in the majors for eight seasons (well, one of those seasons totalled 2 innings), five with the Yankees, the last three with the Padres. In the last three years, he has a 3.15 ERA in 78 games, 77 starts with a 9.5 bWAR.

Among the things Law said:

He’s still a sinker/changeup guy, although in the last two months or so of the season he ramped up the use of a different slider, generating a 20 percent whiff rate on the pitch. It’s shorter, with more tilt to it and less vertical break, and having a better breaking-ball offering than his sweeper may actually mean he has a chance to be better in 2027 and beyond. I wrote last winter that the 2023-24 version of King was a $25 million a year pitcher. The Padres gave him that, and he delivered that and more. He’s a $30 million a year pitcher now, at least, and should get three years again at a higher AAV.

Ben:

Like Trevor Rogers ahead of him and Freddy Peralta behind him, King has a few blemishes that suitors will have to weigh against his bona fides. He posted career worsts in a number of process statistics this year – lowest swinging strike rate, lowest strikeout rate, highest walk rate, highest xFIP, xERA, and SIERA. He withstood those headwinds thanks to a low BABIP and a high left on base percentage, but you probably shouldn’t count on that happening to the same extent again. That would make King more of a nice starter than an elite one, which is roughly what the projections say too. I rounded up from there because I value King’s steady presence and flexibility, and because the Padres under A.J. Preller have never been averse to paying up a bit to retain their own guys.

Ben figures he’ll get $25 million a year for four years, $100 million total, making it a little weird that he would turn down $28 million for next year, but let’s go with it anyway.

If your answer depends on whether he can shower enough to get rid of the Yankees smell, you are my kind of people.

Welcome to the 2026-27 edition of Smash or Pass, in which we examine potential free agent and trade targets to determine whether the Red Sox should pursue them and what it would take to land them. Today, we continue the series with the surprisingly mysterious Brandon Lowe.

Who is he, and where does he come from?

He’s Brandon Lowe, and according to WAR (both Fangraphs (4.9) and Baseball Reference (5.3)), he just had the best season of his career for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Before that, he spent eight seasons playing for the Rays to varying degrees of availability and success.

Is he any good?

Yes, but he falls into the solid be not spectacular bucket. Lowe’s been a surprisingly reliable bat every year outside of 2022 when he dealt with multiple injuries, and 2026 marked the third time he’s hit over 30 home runs in his career. I do have my doubts however about whether he’d hit the most home runs on the 2027 Red Sox if you suddenly dropped him onto this roster, but he did manage to outhomer everybody in Boston on the 2026 team, so I can’t completely ignore what he brings to the table either.

One thing that does concern me however is his abysmal playoff record. He’s batted just .115 with a .423 OPS in 120 postseason plate appearances. (Although to be fair, a huge chunk of those were during Covid, which was the most useless MLB season of all time.)

TL;DR, just give me his 2026 stats

150 games, a .260 batting average, a .331 on base, an .824 OPS, a 121 wRC+, and a 5.1 WAR* when you average Baseball Reference and Fangraphs.

*Important disclaimer …

Here’s the thing that line doesn’t tell you: Lowe just had a career year on defense. Baseball Reference has him down for +13 runs in 2026 after being a -14 runs in 2025. Fangraphs meanwhile tells a very similar story, pegging him at +10.7 runs in overall defensive value in 2026 after clocking in at -10.0 in 2025. While the details vary slight, both agree that Lowe had BY FAR his best defensive season in 2026, and BY FAR his worst defensive season in 2025. That’s not really supposed to happen at age 32, and it makes nailing down his value going forward extremely tricky.

Why would he be a good fit for the Red Sox?

2026 Brandon Lowe would be a great fit for the Red Sox! Outstanding defense, 30 plus home run pop, took the field for a full 150 games, and plays a position that’s been a revolving door for a decade. What’s not to love?

Why wouldn’t he be a good fit for the Red Sox?

Well, for starters, he averaged just 93 games a year in his first eight seasons. (To be fair, the real number is probably closer to 115 games per season, which is the average you get before 2026 when you throw out his rookie season and Covid.) But on top of that, those wild swings in the defensive metrics really take a potential bite out of his value. You simply can’t rely on him to be a plus defense at second base for the life of his next contract when you combine his career numbers with the general fact that most guys tend to fall of sharply defensively once they hit their mid 30s.

The bottom line is that for a player who was so consistently good in 2026, he’s surrounded by question marks when you look at the bigger picture. And unfortunately for whoever signs him, this feels like the classic example of a guy who had a career season in his contract year and is never going to duplicate it again.

What would it take to get him?

So here’s the fun part — Nobody knows. Keith Law of the Athletic thinks he’s getting five years and $150 million while other outlets have him getting approximately half of those figures. Again, Lowe’s value going forward is mystery worthy of an Agatha Christie novel.

One thing we do know however is Lowe will come attached with a Qualifying Offer (assuming he declines it by the deadline next week), which means you’ll be paying in draft capital on top of the dollars.

Show me a cool highlight.

Here he is rocking a walk-off home run in August off Kenley Jansen, which is always nice to see after Jansen quit on the Red Sox clubhouse at the end of the 2024 season.

Smash or pass?

I’m a pass for now. The Red Sox have too many guys going into 2027 surrounded by question marks, and Lowe would only further muddy those waters. And curiously enough, the wild volatility of this club already includes what they’re going to get at second base with Curtis Mead. He could be anything from a power bat at the position who just unlocked the skill in 2026, or a borderline hitter who can’t stick at second base defensively.

But back to Lowe, because there is one caveat: I feel like Lowe is not going to be signed anytime soon (I could be completely wrong about this). He feels like a guy who is going to wait out for that $150 million Keith Law is predicting, and I don’t think he’s going to get it. It’s possible he’s sitting there on the backside of the lockout after the Red Sox have made several other moves. So who knows, maybe they loop back to him after the deck has been shuffled. Maybe he’s the lsat of the QO guys sitting there and the Red Sox whiffed on everybody else and have a gigantic hole left at second base and more room to spend than other big market clubs with a cap going in place. It’s not likely, but we’re not dealing with a normal winter here.

For now though, I’d echo Fitzy Mo Pena’s desire to prioritize Seiya Suzuki, and figure out where the dust settles with Franklin Arias, Trevor Story, Curtis Mead, a whole host of other middle infield utility options the Sox already have, and any potential middle infield trade rumors we don’t even know about yet. Just like with Lowe himself, uncertainty is the name of the game.

One of several prospects the Dodgers acquired as part of some roster reshuffling over the past few seasons—working around the margins—Adam Serwinowski did not necessarily live up to the promise of an exciting end of the year in High-A last season. Promoted to Double-A to begin the 2026 campaign, Serwinowski went through the baptism of fire of the Texas League, just like various talented prospects before him and plenty more in the future.

This was Serwinowski’s first full season in the Dodgers’ organization, acquired during last year’s trade deadline in a three-team deal that saw the Dodgers send catcher Hunter Feduccia to the Rays. Drafted in the 15th round of the MLB Draft by the Reds back in 2022, the 6-foot-5 left-hander had a slow development, falling short of 30 innings in his first two seasons as a pro in Rookie ball.

One of the workhorses for a Drillers team that smoked through the competition to earn an 88-50 record, Serwinowski not only led his team in strikeouts with 150 but also was number two in that category in the entire Texas League. The Dodgers’ left-handers stood behind only Daniel Eagen (157) of the Diamondbacks.

It’s easy to see that 5.31 ERA in a different light in the context of the extreme hitter-friendly Texas League and all the obstacles it brings to the table. There were moments of brilliance sprinkled throughout the year, like when he tossed seven scoreless against Corpus Christi in a one-hitter in late June, but usually the challenging outing to inflate that ERA back over five was just around the corner.

Speaking of challenges, the Springfield Cardinals—the team responsible for eliminating Tulsa in the semifinals—certainly had Serwinowski’s number in 2026, including in the playoffs. After scoring 12 runs against the tall left-hander in just 11.2 regular season innings, the Cardinals got on him for four runs in as many innings in an eventual 9-7 defeat for the Drillers.

As things currently stand, the Dodgers have a decision on their hands regarding Serwinowski, who for the first year in his career will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. Whatever concessions we might make regarding the Texas League, the left-hander does not look ready for a promotion to the big league club in the near future, meaning LA would need to burn a 40-man spot to maintain its asset.

The alternative would be to do something that’s become common for this team in recent years: move a prospect for an even younger one and trade proximity to the majors for convenience since roster moves and playing time at and near the top require some sacrifices. Serwinowski is one to keep an eye on in any potential trade talks this offseason.

2026 particulars

Age: 22

Double-A Stats: .9-6, 5.31 ERA, 1.433 WHIP, 150 K, 69 BB, 127 IP

Game of the year

Having faced the Wichita Wind Surge five times in 27 starts, it’s no wonder some of Serwinowski’s most dominant performances came in this matchup, including his only double-digit strikeout game. In late May, Serwinowski held the Wind Surge to just one run through seven innings, allowing five baserunners (three hits and a walk).

MESA, Arizona — I generally like attending at least one Arizona Fall League game each year, a way to get a bit of a baseball fix before the winter with no baseball sets in (and this winter might have a much longer period with no baseball, as you know).

So I attended Wednesday’s AFL game between the Mesa Solar Sox (where Cubs prospects play) and the Salt River Rafters at Sloan Park, won by the Rafters 12-4.

Holy hell, that was an awful baseball game. And there’s a reason for it, which I’ll get to after I describe why this game was so bad. First, because the game had no impact on the AFL playoffs, which begin today, it was scheduled for seven innings.

Even so, it ran three hours and three minutes. Why was that? Because the teams combined for 22 (!) walks and threw a total of 343 (!) pitches. That would be a lot even for a nine-inning game. The Rafters pitchers were slightly less bad than the Solar Sox pitchers. They walked only seven.

The Solar Sox pitchers, who included Cubs prospect Jhon Cabral, walked 15 — and also struck out 13. Put another way: The Rafters sent 46 men to the plate. Only 18 of them put the ball in play.

Cabral, who was signed to a minor-league deal by the Cubs after the Marlins let him go in June, faced five batters. Not one of them put the ball in play. He struck out two and walked three, 30 pitches, 12 strikes. Here’s an example of how he threw:

So, Cabral throws hard but has no idea where the ball was going. Note that pitch 4 could have been challenged — it was clearly out of the zone — but the Rafters were out of challenges by then.

Cabral is 21. A guy who throws that hard — maybe the Cubs can refine that and help him throw strikes. Otherwise he’ll wash out of the system in a couple of years.

I was discussing this with Josh and he said, “It’s kind of like what Low-A has become. Teams just don’t send any pitching prospects to the AFL anymore.”

Which is true. AFL games used to be more like Triple-A games, with prospects about ready to make the majors. Ian Happ was the AFL championship game MVP back in 2016 when he homered twice. Nelson Velázquez won the league MVP award in 2021. That same year, Caleb Kilian threw six perfect innings in the AFL championship game.

It’s not like that anymore — and it’s not just the Cubs. I met up with Samantha Bradfield, who runs the SB Nation Rockies site Purple Row (and who also helped us out with our interview with Miguel Useche), at the game and she mentioned she had heard from Rockies director of player development Chris Forbes:

“The Fall League in probably a 10-year span has really changed. It’s not quite the pedigree that it used to be. Where it used to be guys are going and next year they’re probably going to debut, and this year, as we were picking through it – reward, like, Fidel Ulloa. That’s a good reward for a kid that’s been pretty steady and a reliever. And a reliever, Hunter Mann, that’s emerged this year as a two-plus guy. But from Konner Eaton, there’s a command plan for him. We need just a little bit more time with him. And then Stu Flesland III, who had an amazing year, they’ve got this velocity thing they’re trying to do with him, and they’re going to do that and then try to get him to try it in a game. So I think Sean’s our only starter, and guys like Stu will be coming out of the bullpen with just his plan in place.“

Last week, Jim McLennan, who runs our SB Nation Diamondbacks site AZ Snakepit, had this similar comment about an AFL game he attended, quoting a D-backs beat writer:

The game ended 5-3 to the Javelinas and was… interesting. It wasn’t very well-played, to be honest. Was chatting to Jack Sommers about it, and he said, “The quality of the AFL has gone down in recent years. There are fewer and fewer good pitchers, and it has skewed towards younger, less developed position players. Fifteen years ago it was much better quality.”

So, if you go to an AFL game, the sort of baseball you’re going to see is… different… from what it used to be. Whether this is good or bad is in the eye of the beholder.

Two Cubs hitting prospects had decent games Wednesday. Kade Snell, who is gaining some attention in the system, went 1-for-3 with a walk and a stolen base. Outfielder Harrison Feinberg went 2-for-3 with a sacrifice fly.

One reason for the lopsided score, besides all the walks issued by Solar Sox pitchers, is that catcher Davis Diaz simply got run on by just about everyone. The Rafters stole 11 (!) bases and on a couple of the attempts, Diaz didn’t even attempt a throw. Diaz is a conversion guy, drafted by the A’s in the eighth round in 2024 out of Vanderbilt. He did not catch at all in college; the A’s are, well, trying to change that. Based on what I saw Wednesday, it’s not working.

The Solar Sox have prospects from the Cubs, A’s, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Angels. The Rafters have prospects from the Nationals, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Yankees and Twins.

It wasn’t great baseball, but it was baseball, the weather was gorgeous (80 degrees and not a cloud in the sky), and who knows when I’ll see players wearing Cubs uniforms on a field again… so it was still a worthwhile way to spend a Wednesday afternoon in November.

If you are interested, here’s the entire game:

Hot stove season is hitting it’s stride, and November 17th is one of the relatively hotter days for said proverbial stove in the MLB off-season calendar.

1. Rule 5 Draft Protection Date Deadline: Any minor-league players that are eligible to be drafted in the Rule 5 draft (have been in affiliated pro ball for 5 seasons if drafted at age 18 or younger, or 4 seasons if drafted when 19 or older) must be added to the 40-man by November 17.
2. Qualifying Offer Deadline: Any players tendered the 1-year, $23.1mm contract (known as a Qualifying Offer) must accept or decline by November 17. Teams that have a QO declined receive draft capital as compensation.
3. Owners Meetings: The Owners Meetings will also begin on November 17. These meetings are typically hotbeds of roster rumors and trade news. This year’s meetings will surely be colored by the pending expiration of the labor contract with the MLB Players Association (and associated owner-imposed lockout), so we might expect less trade activity than normal (or more!).

The Mariners have no obvious candidates for Rule 5 protection, per our prospect guru Max Ellingsen. Athletic-but-undersized outfielder Carlos Jimenez is the only top-30 prospect per MLB Pipeline (#25) that is Rule 5 eligible. Other long-shot candidates include a few pitchers: tantalizing-but-oft-injured Teddy McGraw, 29-year-old southpaw Peyton Alford, and recent Arizona Fall League All-Star Adam Smith..

As for the Qualifying Offer, that one is rather simple. Randy Arozarena, the anchor of the 2026 Mariners’ offense has been tendered his offer and is certain to decline it.

So, as is tradition, let’s burn some of our few hours of daylight by breaking down the current 40-man roster (as of November 12) by looking at each position group, see how this projects to a 26-man roster before this offseason’s free agent and trade acquisitions.

Pitchers: 22

Starting Pitchers: 7

Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, George Kirby, Kade Anderson (L), Emerson Hancock, Bryce Miller, Logan Evans

Not much has changed with the starting rotation from last season. Even after the mid-season trade of Luis Castillo, it is a position group that is ripe for trade rumors, for obvious reasons. The Mariners took several approaches to their embarrassment of riches, including a 6-man rotation, sending Bryce to the pen (and then back), and most notoriously, El Piggyback.

The working assumption is that Gilbert, Woo and Anderson are considered untouchable in these discussions, and Kirby, Hancock and Miller to be on the block. Evans underwent Tommy John surgery in January of 2026, leaving his availability for spring of 2027 in question, but he likely could be ready to provide rotation depth again once stretched out.

Relief Pitchers: 15

RHP: Eduard Bazardo, Matt Brash, C0oper Criswell, Nick Davila,Seranthony Domínguez, Isaac Mattson, Andrés Muñoz, Michael Rucker, Troy Taylor, Carlos Vargas, Cole Wilcox

LHP: José Ferrer, Gabe Speier, Robinson Ortiz

As usual and to be expected at this time of year, the bullpen section of the 40-man is a bit of a slop pile. There is a somewhat-clear top 7 of the depth chart here: Muñoz is the closer, Speier, Ferrer and Brash should be high-leverage options, while Domínguez, Bazardo and Vargas are solid arms to have as early-inning relief. But as the Mariners have seen over the last couple of years, it’s hard to go a full season without dipping deep into the 40-man for reinforcements for the bullpen. In particular, will Seattle run things back with Speier and Ferrer as the lone trusted lefties out of the pen, or will they seek to bolster their southpaw reserves?

Batters: 18

Catchers: 3

Cal Raleigh (S), Jhonny Pereda, Willie MacIver

The Mariners’ front office is likely satisfied with Pereda as their back-up for Raleigh. Raleigh will need to play a lot like more like 2025 & end-stage 2026 Cal, and a lot less like the nightmare that was most of his 2026. Seattle has ample catching depth just off the 40-man in their system, including Boston Smith and Luke Stevenson.

Infielders: 9

Josh Naylor (L), Cole Young (L), Brendan Donovan (L), Colt Emerson (L), Michael Arroyo, Ryan Bliss, Leo Rivas (S), Brock Rodden (S), Michael Toglia (S)

Naylor, Young, Donovan and Emerson looks a lot like your starting infield. Arroyo, the little positionless-hitter that could, impressed in his September call up, racking up 0.5 bWAR in 15 games while hitting .371. Expect Arroyo to see plenty of at-bats against left-handed pitchers, spelling Donovan or Young as necessary, or even slotting in to designated hitter. Depending on Donovan’s health and hitting, Arroyo could work himself into a platoon with the veteran infielder, a proposal made more challenging by Donovan’s similar positional uncertainty. Donovan might also project as the primary third baseman once again, but such a decision would be challenging with the club’s ostensible emphasis on defensive improvements.

Outfielders: 6

Julio Rodríguez, Dominic Canzone (L), Lazaro Montes (L), Brennan Davis, Grant McCray (L), Luke Raley (L)

Julio is the anchor here. Montes was as advertised in his September call-up – he struck out so much and hit the ball so far. He will likely rotate through the corners and DH, along with Canzone, who has finally played himself out of platoon jail with a breakout 2026. The fourth outfielder spot likely belongs to Luke Raley, who has shown the ability to hit between stints on the IL. One-time first-round pick Davis would be the 25th or 26th man on the roster today. Both Arroyo and Donovan will play outfield roles as well, as could some of their undersized infielders. Still, it’s worth noting Arroyo will likely miss the start of the season recovering from injury, while Davis, Raley, Donovan, and Canzone are far from bankably clean bills of health. Arozarena’s departure costs Seattle production, of course, but also reliability and availability.

Projected 26-man roster:

SP: Gilbert, Woo, Kirby, Anderson, Hancock, Miller

RP: Muñoz, Speier, Ferrer, Brash, Bazardo, Domínguez, Vargas

C: Raleigh, Pereda

INF: Naylor, Young, Donovan, Emerson, Arroyo, Rivas

OF: Rodríguez, Canzone, Montes, Raley, Davis

Projected Lineup:

1. Brendan Donovan (3B)
2. Julio Rodríguez (CF)
3. Cal Raleigh (C)
4. Dominic Canzone (RF)
5. Josh Naylor (1B)
6. Cole Young (2B)
7. Lazaro Montes (LF)
8. Colt Emerson (SS)
9. Michael Arroyo (DH)

Free Agency and Trade Priorities:

There is a glaring Randy-shaped hole in the lineup that most observers expect Seattle to fill via free agency or trade. Fellow QO-recipient, Seiya Suzuki, has been a name bandied about as an ideal fit for Seattle, including by our own John Trupin. However, given the proclivities of the front office, trading from the stores of starting pitchers seems more likely. This path makes even more sense given the imminence of Ryan Sloan.

More bullpen depth is needed as well, as there is a lot of question marks and churn-fodder beyond the top 7 or 8 arms. Running with a six-man rotation again seems hard to imagine given the cumulative consequences on the bullpen a season ago, but until a trade is made it’s hard to know if the club is willing to stick Bryce Miller in the bullpen again for a longer look.

If it looks like a questionable group, it seems reasonable that the M’s have been connected to several names already this winter. What it’ll shake out to be remains to be seen.

Hey now, you really love Mathias LaCombe!

Our first debut on the ballot to immediately advance is the right-handed Frenchman twirler, jumping right into the fray and winning Round 7, with 43 of 78 votes (55%):

LaCombe, a 12th round pick in 2023, finished as our No. 14-voted prospect last year. He’s the first right-handed reliever to advance this season.

Past No. 7s in the SSS Top Prospect Vote
2026 Billy Carlson (52%)
2025 Mason Adams (20%)
2024 Jake Eder (20%)
2023 Norge Vera (28%)
2022 Yolbert Sánchez (34%)
2021 Jonathan Stiever (40%)
2020 Jonathan Stiever (51%)
2019 Micker Adolfo (35%)
2018 Zack Burdi (39%)

The DSL announces its presence in the form of outfielder Sebastian Romero, who joins our ballot this round.

South Side Sox Top-Voted White Sox Prospects for 2027

1. Caleb Bonemer — 71% (Cholowsky 25%, Fauske 3%, Prosek 2%, Bergolla Jr./Carlson/McDougal/Sandlin/Thome/Volchko 0%)
2. Roch Cholowsky — 75% (Sandlin 8%, Bergolla Jr. 6%, Carlson 5%, McDougal 3%, Fauske/Mogollón 2%, Prosek/Thome/Volchko 0%)
3. David Sandlin — 30% (Carlson 23%, Fauske 10%, Bergolla Jr./McDougal 9%, Prosek 8%, Lodise/Thome 4%, Mogollón 3%, Volchko 0%)
4. Billy Carlson — 38% (Bergolla Jr. 27%, Fauske 13%, McDougal/Prosek 7%, Thome 4%, Lodise/Mogollón/Wolkow 2%, Volchko 0%)
5. William Bergolla Jr. — 27% (Fauske 25%, McDougal 21%, Prosek/Thome 10%, Lodise 4%, Mogollón/Wolkow 1%, Volchko/Weingartner 0%)
6. Jaden Fauske — 34% (McDougal 26%, Lodise/Prosek 9%, Thome 8%, Wolkow 6%, Volchko 4%, Mogollón 3%, Casteel 1%, Weingartner 0%)
7. Mathias LaCombe — 55% (McDougal 21%, Prosek 14%, Lodise/Thome 4%, Volchko/Wolkow 1%, Mogollón/Casteel/Weingartner 0%)

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Kyle Casteel
Right-Handed Starting Pitcher
Age 19
2026 high level Butler Area (H.S.)
Overall 2026 stats (H.S) 10-0 ▪️ 13 games ▪️ 65 ⅔ IP ▪️ 0.64 ERA ▪️ 103 K ▪️ 11 BB ▪️ 0.685 WHIP

Casteel is the sort of player you dream of getting to start off the $150,000 round of 10 picks: A player who the White Sox had been talking to regularly that, based on how the first round fell, now was draftable knowing the club could meet the prep’s demands. It’s undoubtable that Casteel is far better than the 315th pick (MLB had him ranked at No. 162 overall), and thus the White Sox pocketed a player who should have been selected in the fifth round. Casteel has power and control, and while the White Sox will bring him along with care, he has a rare profile in a pitching-starved White Sox system.

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Kyle Lodise
Shortstop
Age 22
2026 SSS Prospect Poll ranking 24
2026 high level Winston-Salem (High-A)
Age relative to high level 0.0 years
Overall 2026 stats 111 games ▪️ 20 HR ▪️ 77 RBI ▪️ .230/.380/.440 ▪️ 42-of-51 (82.4%) SB ▪️ 92 BB ▪️ 141 K ▪️ .957 FLD%▪️ 3.6 WAR

Lodise made a return visit to Winston-Salem in 2026, and his first full professional season went extremely well. With a low average and slug to burn, the shortstop fits right in with the org profile of swinging hard, damn the contact. Thankfully, Lodise is selective enough at the plate to produce astronomical OBPs. And his power bat is showing better than advertised at this point.

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Tanner McDougal
Right-Handed Starting Pitcher
Age 23
2024 SSS Prospect Poll ranking 33
2025 SSS Prospect Poll ranking N/R
2026 SSS Prospect Poll ranking 6
2026 high level Chicago (MLB)
Age relative to high level -6.2 years
Overall 2026 stats (High-A/AAA/MLB) 2-3 ▪️ 27 games (7 starts, 3 finishes) ▪️ 50 IP ▪️ 4.86 ERA ▪️ 53 K ▪️ 34 BB ▪️ 1.480 WHIP ▪️0.2 WAR

The good news is that McDougal was enough of a core piece to be promoted to Chicago in the second half of 2026. The bad news … well, where to start. McDougal’s presumptive march to the South Side rotation was stopped dead early in the season, when he was sidelined for weeks with forearm tightness. While the injury was thankfully not severe enough to necessitate a second TJS, Tanner was a relief arm for the rest of the season and not a stable one at that. His brief cameo in Chicago saw him rack up one out along with three walks.

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Javier Mogollón
Second Baseman
Age 21
2026 high level Winston-Salem (AA)
Age relative to high level -2.0 years
Overall 2026 stats (Low-A/High-A) 91 games ▪️ 14 HR ▪️ 57 RBI ▪️ .262/.368/.448 ▪️ 36-of-44 (81.8%) SB ▪️ 53 BB ▪️ 123 K ▪️ .965 FLD%▪️ 2.5 WAR

The diminutive (5´8´´, 160) infielder wowed in rookie ball and though his climb has slowed, Mogollón has steadily risen up our ranks, from No.62 in our 2024 Top 100 to the cusp of the Top 10 today. That said, he’s seen two straight seasons shortened by hamstring issues. At least in 2026, Mogollón was able to return before season’s end, providing a clutch bat coming that provided a .313/.389/.813 slash and eight RBIs en route to sweeping to a SALLY title.

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Cole Prosek
Third Baseman
Age 19
2026 High Level Magnolia Heights (H.S.)
Overall 2026 stats (H.S) 41 games ▪️ 18 HR ▪️ 79 RBI ▪️ .545/.678/1.177 ▪️ 62 R ▪️ 7 SB ▪️ 31 BB ▪️ 12 K

Coming to Chicago as a second-rounder, Prosek seems more highly-regarded by evaluators than the guy picked ahead of him by the White Sox, low first round choice Landon Thome. That’s a curious thing, but Prosek dominated his prep competition even more thoroughly than Thome. Plus, while the White Sox regard Prosek as a second baseman, his prep time was spent significantly at the hot corner, and he has experience behind the plate as well.

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Sebastian Romero
Center Fielder
Age 18
2026 high level DSL White Sox (Rookie)
Age relative to high level -0.6 years
Overall 2026 stats 52 games ▪️ 11 HR ▪️ 54 RBI ▪️ .277/.391/.538 ▪️ 7-of-10 (70.0%) SB ▪️ 18 BB ▪️ 61 K ▪️ .963 FLD%▪️ 1.6 WAR

The sexy international prospect for 2026-27 is Romero, who had a boisterous pro debut, flashing perhaps all tools but hit. Or, at least the bat control aspect of the hit tool, because 18 walks — just three more free passes than hit-by-pitches — indicates a willingness to swing at ANYTHING, as does his 61 Ks against woeful DSL arms. However, when contact is made, ball go boom.

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Landon Thome
Shortstop
Age 19
2026 High Level Nazareth Academy (H.S.)
Overall 2026 stats (H.S) 7 HR ▪️ 29 RBI ▪️ .545 AVG ▪️ 49-of-50 (98.0%) SB

How crazy is it to have two high school teammates (Thome and Jaden Fauske) on our first ballot of the voting year … or any ballot, ever? The White Sox were so hot to dip back into Nazareth’s roster that they dealt promising 2023 first-rounder Jacob Gonzalez to Pittsburgh to acquire the draft pick to snag him; clearly the club was not confident Thome would drop into the second round. Unlike his father, Hall-of-Famer and White Sox adviser Jim, Landon is better regarded for his speed and defense than his ability to put the ball over the fence. Slugging will come in time for junior, however.

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Joey Volchko
Right-handed starting pitcher
Age 21
2026 high level University of Georgia (NCAA)
Age relative to high level +0.1 years
Overall 2026 stats 11-2 ▪️ 18 starts ▪️ 1 CG ▪️ 95 1/3 IP ▪️ 3.68 ERA ▪️ 119 K ▪️ 46 BB ▪️ 1.343 WHIP ▪️ 2.1 WAR

This big-armed righty can touch 100 mph with his fastball, but wildness concerns might have precipitated Volchko’s drop to the White Sox in the third round in spite of MLB ranking him as a second round (68th-best) talent. He’s a big-game pitcher who dragged the Bulldogs to their first College World Series win in 18 years with a complete-game effort over the University of Texas. There’s a chance Volchko ends up as a high-leverage bullpen arm, but he will get every chance to stick as a starter.

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Alex Weingartner
Right Fielder
Age 19
2026 high level St. Augustine College Prep (H.S.)
Overall 2026 stats 30 games ▪️ 7 HR ▪️ 36 RBI ▪️ .495 AVG ▪️ .817 SLG ▪️ 33 SB ▪️ 21 BB

Oddly enough, Weingartner may be a doppelganger for the player listed right below; both he and George Wolkow were prep plums selected lower than their skill and scout rankings indicated, and both players scored sweet bonuses from the White Sox to lure them from potential college commitments. Both have rocket arms (Weingartner, in fact, pitched for his St. Augustine Hermits in 2026) as well.

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George Wolkow
Right Fielder
Age 21
2024 SSS Prospect Poll ranking 14
2025 SSS Prospect Poll ranking 13
2026 SSS Prospect Poll ranking 16
2026 high level Winston-Salem (High-A)
Age relative to high level -2.0 years
Overall 2026 stats 123 games ▪️ 22 HR ▪️ 100 RBI ▪️ .239/.317/.446 ▪️ 15-of-22 (68.2%) SB ▪️ 50 BB ▪️ 179 K ▪️ .971 FLD%▪️ 1.6 WAR

Wolkow sacrificed speed and what batting eye he had for power in 2026, and while that made for some impressive counting stats (22-100 plays on the back of any baseball card) the hole in his swing hasn’t been sewn. If the White Sox brass is having Wolkow bet on his best tool, power, at all others’ expense, he’s slipping into the Colson Category.

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The Royals’ bullpen was atrocious in 2026. Carlos Estévez missed virtually the entire season, Lucas Erceg worked through issues all year, and Matt Strahm was completely ineffective once he suffered a knee injury midseason. The Royals had a 6.65 ERA in the ninth inning, by far the worst mark in baseball. They cycled through 32 relievers in all, and the bullpen finished with a 5.07 ERA, second-worst in baseball, with 26 blown saves.

Picollo indicated that the bullpen would be a focus this offseason, although he cautioned that didn’t mean they would necessarily be aggressive in spending in that area. Past free agent signings that have backfired could inhibit the team from pursuing top dollar pitchers. But the team badly needs depth and could look for bargains in the market that can upgrade their pen. Here is what this year’s free agent reliever market looks like.

Top tier relievers

David Bednar is one of the most established closers available this offseason, a two-time All-Star with 146 career saves. He bounced back from a difficult 2024 campaign and an early demotion in 2025 to have a solid 2.47 ERA this year with 9.9 strikeouts-per-nine innings. The Yankees offered him a Qualifying Offer, but the 32-year-old should command a lucrative multi-year deal.

Adrián Morejón is arguably the top reliever available due to an explosive 2026 season and his age. The 27-year-old fireballing lefty struck out 30.4 percent of all hitters he faced, posting a 2.83 ERA in 83 innings. He has never handled traditional closing duties on a regular basis, but over the last three years he has been the third-most valuable reliever in baseball by fWAR. He is likely looking at a three- to five-year deal worth at least $16 million per year, with some even speculating he could get up to $100 million.

Proven closers

José Alvarado has one of fastest heaters in the game, but suffered a poor season with a 5.86 ERA coming off the heels of an 80-game suspension for PEDs. He still missed a lot of bats this year, his FIP was much better than his ERA, and he is just 31 years old, so he might be a good bounce-back candidate.

Raisel Iglesias has had 29+ saves in each of the last four years, and he hasn’t posted an ERA higher than 3.21 since 2019. He is about as consistent as they come, but he will turn 37 in January. He is probably looking at a one- or two-year deal and some feel he is likely to return to the Braves.

Kenley Jansen has 498 career saves, third-most all-time. He posted a solid 3.20 ERA in 45 innings last year, but with a 4.46 FIP and a spike in his walk rate. His cutter is still a very effective pitch, but he is now 39 years old and in the twilight of his career.

Can miss bats

Bryan Abreu had three 100+ strikeout seasons as a reliever and his 33.4 percent strikeout rate since 2022 is 13th-highest among relievers. But his walk rate increased significantly this year, and he posted a career-worst 3.78 ERA and 4.62 FIP. Most of that was due to poor April, and he had a 2.19 ERA after that month. He doesn’t turn 30 until April, so the right-hander should be a pretty coveted arm.

Brock Burke led the AL with 77 appearances, posting a 2.63 ERA with 74 strikeouts in 74.1 innings. Lefties hit just .195 against him, but he struck out a fair number of right-handers too, although his walk rate was quite high.

Kevin Ginkel has struck out 9.8 hitters per-nine-innings over the last four seasons with the Diamondbacks. He had a rough 2025 season, but bounced back a bit this year with a 4.12 ERA that would have been lower had it not been for a pair of four-run outings in August. His 3.50 FIP and solid strikeout-to-walk ratio will keep the 32-year-old in demand despite a less-than-stellar ERA.

Gregory Soto is a two-time All-Star reliever who struck out 10.6 hitters per-nine innings with the Pirates, posting a 3.63 ERA. The 31-year-old lefty had a 43.6 percent groundball rate and was equally effective against lefties and righties.

Alex Vesia has been one of the best relievers in the league, with the tenth-lowest ERA of all relievers over the last three seasons. Lefties hit just .138 against him this year, but he’s effective against right-handers as well. Vesia could earn a two- or even three-year deal worth around $10-12 million per year.

Others: Mark Leiter Jr., Ryne Stanek

Control artists

Andrew Kittredge has the sixth-lowest walk rate among relievers over the past two seasons, with just 19 unintentional walks over that time. He posted a career-high strikeout rate of 10.9 per-nine-innings in 2025, but that plummeted to 7.5 this year. The right-hander will be 37 by the time the season starts.

A.J. Minter has a 4.3 percent walk rate, sixth-lowest among pitchers with at least 40 innings. The lefty had a 2.56 ERA in 48 games last year, and doesn’t have much of a platoon split.

Steven Okert has a 2.50 ERA over the last two seasons with one of the best strikeout-to-walk ratios over that time. Lefties hit .186/.244/.301 against the 35-year-old, but he was nearly equally effective against righties.

Groundball pitchers

Jason Adam has already had two separate stints with the Royals, but it wasn’t until he left KC that he became an All-Star reliever. He missed nearly three months with a shoulder strain, returning for two games at the end of the season. The Kansas City native posted a 2.62 ERA, although his strikeout rate plummeted.

Paul Blackburn is a former All-Star starter but became a journeyman before joining the Yankees. He was one of the most trusted relievers for Aaron Boone this year, and he finished with the fourth-most multi-inning relief appearances. In 85 innings, the 32-year-old right-hander posted a 1.59 ERA, third-lowest among all relievers.

Jonathan Loáisiga had a 56.4 percent groundball rate, 11th-highest in the league. He also poured in strikes with a 5.0 percent walk rate. The 32-year-old posted a 2.42 ERA and 2.88 FIP for Arizona despite a low strikeout rate.

Sean Newcomb was bouncing around the league before he figured something out in 2025 and used his curve to become a very effective reliever. He had the second-most multi-inning relief appearances in baseball, pitching in 90.1 innings with a 3.09 ERA and a 44 percent groundball rate.

JoJo Romero was a late inning option for the Cardinals before they traded him to Milwaukee, where he earned a ring. The lefty is equally good against righties and lefties, and the 30-year-old has been very dependable over the last three seasons.

Antonio Senzatela spent most of his career as a starting pitcher in Colorado, but moved to the pen where he became a solid reliever for the Rockies. He was less impressive after being traded to Milwaukee, and he doesn’t have a record of success, so the 31-year-old could be a bit of a risk.

Ryan Thompson is a sidearmer that can bring the “different look” J.J. Picollo has advocating having in the pen. His ERA spiked to 4.43 this year and his strikeout rate fell to 6.4 per-nine-innings, but his FIP was a solid 3.81 and he had a 50.7 percent groundball rate.

Others: Tyler Alexander, Brent Suter

Old friends

Taylor Clarke left the Royals to have a solid season in Arizona with a 2.96 ERA in 71 games. He doesn’t strike out many hitters, but he had a very low walk rate and a 45 percent groundball rate.

Jakob Junis has been a fairly effective reliever since joining the Royals, although he has battled some injuries. He made 53 appearances for the Rangers last year with a 3.64 ERA, but with one of the lowest strikeout rates.

John Schreiber was terrific after joining the Yankees late in the year, lowering his ERA to 3.28 in 60.1 innings for the year. He also had a very low strikeout rate, and his walk rate spiked up last year.

Others: Carlos Estévez, Hunter Harvey, Tim Hill, Matt Strahm, Ryan Yarbrough

Free agents from Asia

Darwinzon Hernández pitched in parts of four MLB seasons with Boston before pitching three seasons in Japan. He had a 1.41 ERA in 44.2 innings last year with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. The 29-year-old lefty threw in the mid-90s, but had major command issues earlier in his career, although his walk rates in Japan were much better.

Andrés Machado came up in the Royals organization and pitched in two games for them in 2017 before pitching for the Washington Nationals. He spent the last three years pitching in Japan for the Orix Blue Wave, posting a 1.35 ERA in 53.1 innings last year with just seven walks. He also pitched well in the World Baseball Classic for Team Venezuela and could be eyeing a return to MLB.

Kaima Taira is a squat 5’8” pitcher nicknamed “Fire Hydrant” who had a 1.36 ERA in 146 innings last year for the Saitama Seibu Lions. He throws in the high-90s and can hit triple digits. Some teams may see him as a starter, but he’s likely to have more success out of the pen. He will go through the posting system and must be signed by December 1.

Others: Jyun-Yue Tseng, Tai-In Won

Lefty specialists

Sam Moll had an underwhelming 4.79 ERA mostly due to a poor finish. He held lefties to a line of .217/.311/.296 and finished with a 51.6 percent groundball rate.

Brooks Raley was fantastic with the Mets this year, although he was less effective after being traded to the Phillies. The 38-year-old made 61 appearances with a 3.25 ERA overall, and lefties hit .259/.309/.376 against him.

Others: Andrew Chafin, Danny Coulombe, Hoby Milner, Taylor Rogers, Caleb Thielbar

Other middle relievers

Shawn Armstrong has posted strong strikeout rates the last few years, but his walk numbers skyrocketed this year with the Guardians. After a 3.21 ERA in 71 games in 2025, he posted a disappointing 4.58 ERA this year.

Pierce Johnson is a former Missouri State right-hander who had a nice 2025 season with the Braves, but regressed this year with a 4.62 ERA in 56 games. He gets whiffs with his curve, but his strikeout numbers fell significantly.

Tyler Kinley also saw his strikeout numbers fall, but his ERA held steady at 3.45, although with a 5.21 FIP. He has trouble with walks at times and turns 36 in January.

Others: Enyel De Los Santos, Dennis Santana

Injury risks

Jalen Beeks has a 3.78 ERA in 83.1 innings over the last two years with Arizona and Texas, but missed the last three months of the year following flexor tendon surgery. The 33-year-old lefty should be ready for spring training.

Pete Fairbanks is a former Mizzou pitcher with 94 saves over the past four seasons. He was an effective reliever for the Rays for many years, but they non-tendered him after the 2025 season and he was awful this year for the Marlins. Fairbanks deals with Raynaud’s phenomenon, which can cause finger numbness in cold weather. He underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery and likely won’t be ready for the start of next season.

Evan Phillips missed most of the first half of last year following Tommy John surgery, but returned late in the year to make 31 appearances for the Dodgers, even making their postseason roster. He had a 3.46 ERA with 33 strikeouts in 26 innings with a 97 mph fastball and a sweeper that generates a 34 percent whiff rate.

A.J. Puk is a 6’7” lanky lefty with a 96 mph fastball, who is coming off Tommy John surgery. He had a 3.15 ERA in 62 games, with 88 strikeouts in 71.1 innings, but has pitched in just eight games since then. He was supposed to return last summer, but had some setbacks and only pitched in a few minor league games.

Others: Yimi García, Brusdar Graterol, Joe Jiménez, José Leclerc, Robert Stephenson

Lane Thomas seemed destined to be a Brave in 2026: he was playing for a non-contender on a reasonable, expiring contract, and offered a specific, not-too-complicated skillset that the team could use on a matchup-by-matchup basis (or not). So, it wasn’t surprising when the Braves went ahead and acquired him at the Trade Deadline. Unfortunately, an injury meant that Thomas didn’t really bring anything to his new team.

How Acquired

A well-traveled veteran who was drafted in 2014 and made his debut in 2019, Thomas signed a one-year worth $5.25 million with modest playing time bonuses with the Royals in the 2025-2026 offseason.

The Royals quickly drifted out of playoff contention (playoff odds below 10 percent starting in late May and sliding to zero by mid-July), which made Thomas and his middling performance an obvious trade candidate. The Braves sent minor league arms Lucas Braun and Carter Holton to Kansas City in exchange for the services of Thomas and Bailey Falter.

What were the expectations?

Thomas has had a very journeyman-esque career, playing for three clubs before the 2026 season, and putting up a combined 1.7 fWAR-per-600 PAs in parts of seven seasons. He was a full-timer in 2022-2024, which included a career-best 2.9 fWAR in 2023, but was an aging platoon-ish bat coming off an injured and pretty awful 2025 (-0.5 fWAR).

Thomas’ career has basically had one strong point: he mashes lefties. He’s been serviceable in the outfield, but it generally hasn’t been a strength of his. He’s been there to do one thing, even though teams have attempted to make him a full-timer and play him in center, largely to their detriment. That’s pretty much what he was doing with the Royals at the time of the trade:

• 2026 with Royals, against LHP: .355 wOBA (125 wRC+), .349 xwOBA
• 2026 with Royals, against RHP: .296 wOBA (84 wRC+), .297 xwOBA

His overall value in Kansas City was a little suppressed (0.8 fWAR in 328 PAs) because he both hit against a bunch of righties (about 59 percent of the time) and because the Royals chose to play him in center for some reason (-4 OAA-based runs there, and +1 in a corner outfield spot). The Braves likely figured that Thomas not in center field, playing largely against lefties, would be a pretty nice guy to have. So, the expectation was probably “a really solid short side platoon guy,” which is a great thing to acquire for two very fringy prospect arms.

2026 Results

Though the process of getting Thomas into Atlanta was sound-if-obvious, the results went awry for a number of reasons. The biggest one: Thomas went down with an intercostal strain just about a month into his Atlanta tenure, and didn’t return until the NLDS. That basically halved what the Braves acquired him for, i.e., September and as many playoff series as possible.

Because of the injury, Thomas got just 46 regular season PAs as a Brave, and another seven in the NLDS. Neither tenure was any good: Thomas put up a .261 wOBA and xwOBA (61 wRC+) and -0.1 fWAR in the regular season, and went 1-for-7 with four strikeouts and no walks in the playoffs (.127 wOBA, .129 xwOBA).

Overall, he finished the season at 0.7 fWAR in 374 PAs, which was a huge improvement over his miserable 2025 (-0.5 fWAR in 142 PAs), but otherwise a pretty disappointing year in which he did his main party trick (mash lefties) and not much else.

What went right?

Well, he did the thing he was acquired to do. 30 of his 46 PAs with the Braves in the regular season came against southpaws, and he put together a .353 wOBA (123 wRC+). Mission accomplished, sorta.

Thomas got healthy enough to play against the Dodgers in the NLDS, which was kind of a win considering how much time he missed.

In sort of fitting fashion for a guys whose Braves tenure was kind of lame for reasons not entirely within his control, Thomas’ best game as a Brave was one they ultimately lost. On August 19, he pinch hit for Dominic Smith while the Braves down 4-1 in the sixth, representing the tying run against the Minnesota relief corps. Thomas singled, the Braves’ third straight hit. After a sacrifice fly and a single, the Braves were down 4-3… and Tommy Nance balked with Thomas on third base to push the tying run across. Unfortunately for the Braves, Dylan Lee and the defense gave up two runs in the seventh, and the Braves ended up losing 6-4, with Thomas striking out against a right-hander in his next plate appearance.

What went wrong?

The injury was the big thing, but, though 46 PAs isn’t much, we can also add a few other things. While Thomas maintained his lefty-mashing outputs with his new team, his inputs against lefties included a much more modest, .319 xwOBA. That’s not lefty-mashing. On top of that, he completely fell apart against right-handers in 16 PAs: .087 wOBA (-55 wRC+), .154 xwOBA. Yeah, it was just 16 PAs, but when 16 PAs in a split are a third of your total, that really drags down the batting line. Thomas also didn’t do much defensively, which is how he ended up with -0.1 fWAR as a Brave despite the decent outputs against lefties.

Some of this came to roost in the playoffs, where Thomas actually had more PAs against righties (four) than lefties (three), despite coming off injury. He didn’t do anything there, either, and in fact, his sole safety in the 2026 postseason came against a righty.

Thomas’ worst appearance as a Brave came in a 2-1 win against the Rockies in August. The Braves weren’t generating any offense against a tattered pitching staff, and Thomas, who came into the game in the fifth, didn’t help. He grounded out against a lefty in his first plate appearance, then struck out against a righty with two in scoring position, two out, and the tying and go-ahead runs in scoring position in the seventh… by taking five pitches in a row. Yeesh. Fortunately for him, Mauricio Dubon doubled home both of Atlanta’s runs in the game in the next inning, so it wasn’t that brutal, but a five-pitch strikeout taking all the way in a key spot is brutal.

2027 Outlook

Thomas’ recent seasons have had twists and turns. In 2024, he was a below-average regular whose bat was propped up by mashing lefties. In 2025, he had a lost season, missing most of it and playing horribly while on the field. 2026 was kind of a mix: he was 2024-esque with the Royals, but then injuries struck after the trade, and his performance wasn’t up to par with his new team.

Put that together, and you have a guy who looks like a straight-up bench player. Steamer’s early release has him around 0.5 WAR in a half-season, and I find it hard to argue with that on any side. His ability to hit lefties, unless it somehow evaporated in the late summer of 2026, makes him worth rostering, but he may not even be a preferred choice for the short side of a platoon at this point because he doesn’t offer much in the way of defense, or ability to hold his own against right-handed pitching.

The Braves have done worse in terms of their bench. (Dominic Smith wasn’t hitting anyone for months.) Maybe they’ll re-add him for a limited role. Or, maybe he’ll seek a larger role (and perhaps more compensation). Still, he played for $5.5 million last season coming off a terrible year, so I don’t expect more than $4.5 million or so to retain his services for 2027.

Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto finished fourth in National League Cy Young Award voting in results announced on Wednesday, his second straight year receiving support as one of the top pitchers in the league.

Jacob Misiorowski of the Milwaukee Brewers was the unanimous winner of the award after leading the majors in both strikeouts (252) and ERA (1.80) while going 16-5 in his 30 starts and 74 2/3 innings.

Cristopher Sánchez of the Philadelphia Phillies finished in second place and Atlanta Braves left-hander Chris Sale finished third. Yamamoto was fourth, and appeared on 29 of 30 possible ballots. Yamamoto got two second-place votes, seven third-place votes, 14 fourth-place votes, and six fifth-place votes, for a total of 63 points.

Seven points are awarded for each first-place vote, then four points for second-place votes, three points for third place, two points for fourth place, and one point for fifth place.

Pitcher	Team	1st votes	2nd votes	3rd votes	4th votes	5th votes	Points
Jacob Misiorowski	Brewers	30	0	0	0	0	210
Cristopher Sánchez	Phillies	0	17	6	6	1	99
Chris Sale	Braves	0	11	16	3	0	98
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Dodgers	0	2	7	14	6	63
Jesús Luzardo	Phillies	0	0	1	7	17	34
Mason Miller	Padres	0	0	0	0	4	4
Eduardo Rodríguez	D-backs	0	0	0	0	2	2

Yamamoto this season led the majors by averaging 6.61 innings per start, and put up a 2.53 ERA and 2.94 xERA in his 28 starts with 182 strikeouts in 185 innings. He ranked third in the National League in ERA, was fourth in xERA, and ranked ninth in strikeout-minus-walk rate (19.8 percent).

This is the second straight year Yamamoto garnered Cy Young Award votes. He finished in third place in 2025, and also appeared on 29 of 30 ballots. Yamamoto did not receive any second-place votes last year, but his 72 points outpaced his tally of 63 this year.

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Also on Wednesday, at the MLB Awards ceremony in Las Vegas, Yamamoto and Tarik Skubal each earned All-MLB second-team honors as starting pitchers. They were the only two Dodgers honored in the various awards. This was the third All-MLB honor for Skubal, who was a first-team starting pitcher in 2024 and 2025, and the second such honor for Yamamoto, who was a first-team starting pitcher last year.

Shohei Ohtani missed out on first-team and second-team All-MLB with Yordan Álvarez and Ben Rice capturing those honors at designated hitter. Álvarez also won the Edgar Martinez Award as the top DH in baseball.

My attention was called to this possible trade target by a BCB reader:

The original MLB Trade Rumors article D98 is referencing cited this article by Nationals writer Spencer Nusbaum in The Athletic:

A number of teams have expressed interest in Crews, according to multiple people around the sport who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the conversations are internal and ongoing. The Nationals have not taken the former No. 2 pick off the table in trade talks, as they have with James Wood, Cade Cavalli and now Young.

Several teams have also expressed interest in Nationals outfielder Daylen Lile, though one rival executive said they got the impression that to actually move him, the Nationals would “need to be blown away.” Multiple rival evaluators believe Crews, 24, is more likely to be dealt than Lile this winter.

So. If the Cubs aren’t going to re-sign Ian Happ and/or Seiya Suzuki, could Dylan Crews be a potential replacement? Crews was the Nats’ first-round pick (second overall) in 2023 out of LSU. He immediately jumped into Top 10 overall MLB prospect lists the following year (Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and Baseball Prospectus) after batting .292/.377/.467 with five home runs in just 35 games in the Nats system.

But Crews’ MLB career has been, to put it mildly, a disappointment. In 225 MLB games covering 897 plate appearances, he has batted .217/.285/.363 with 26 home runs and 209 strikeouts, mostly playing right field for Washington.

Crews is the same age as Pete Crow-Armstrong. Both will turn 25 early next year. At that age, there’s certainly time for Crews to turn his career around. As D98 pointed out, this would be a change of scenery deal, so perhaps including Kevin Alcántara in such a trade would work for both teams. I would guess the Cubs would have to include a pitching prospect as well, since Crews has a lot more MLB experience than Alcántara, who has played in just 37 MLB games with 50 plate appearances.

I think I’d do this deal. It certainly couldn’t hurt. If nothing else, even if the Cubs did re-sign Suzuki after trading for Crews, he could be a decent bench player and spare-part outfielder.

Would you do it?

Carl Mays probably would’ve enjoyed one single entry in the annals of baseball lore that doesn’t mention the most regrettable of the thousands of pitches that he threw across a 15-year career that saw him capture four World Series titles. Alas, even on his 135th birthday, we cannot grant that wish. No matter how great he was on the mound, his story will always be tied to that of Cleveland shortstop Ray Chapman. That’s just how it is.

Carl William Mays
Born: November 12, 1891 (Liberty, KY)
Died: April 4, 1971 (El Cajon, CA)
Yankees Tenure: 1919-23

Mays was born in Kentucky to a Methodist minister named William Mays (ah, baseball coincidences), who died when Carl was just 12 years old. The family had moved to Missouri by then, but they packed up again after William’s death, en route to Kingfisher, Oklahoma. It was a sad time for Mays’ family, but he did get the opportunity to meet his cousin, John Long. He was a catcher, and he introduced Mays to the game. Pitching to Long, Mays developed the raw skills to attract the notice of traveling teams.

At the age of 20, Mays signed with the Class D Western Tri-State League’s Boise Irrigators, who offered him $90 per month. Mays was certainly worth the deal, as he pitched to a 2.08 ERA, 0.930 WHIP, and a 22-9 record in 280.2 innings. He moved up to the Class B team in Portland and again had a fine season, though won/loss record (10-15) deceived his true performance (2.45 ERA, 1.024 WHIP in 250 innings), and it was enough to get a new contract for 1914 with the Providence Grays, a Rhode Island team owned by the Detroit Tigers.

The Boston Red Sox purchased the Grays from the Tigers during the season, and Mays attracted Boston’s interested with a fantastic season: 24-8 and a 2.57 ERA in 273.1 innings. Another young pitcher joined him down the stretch named Babe Ruth, and their pitching helped Providence win the pennant. By the beginning of next season, Mays was a major-league pitcher.

The submariner worked mostly out of the bullpen in his rookie season, appearing in 38 games but 131.2 innings overall of 90 ERA- and 69 FIP- ball. He threw hard and was not at all afraid to throw high and inside to back hitters off the plate. Even as a rookie, he made an enemy of Ty Cobb, whose own nasty attitude clashed with Mays. On one occasion, Cobb was knocked down and then dragged a bunt up the first base line, where he spiked Mays with his sharp cleats and cut his leg. Boston and Detroit fought hard for the pennant in 1915; a 100-win season was not good enough to win the title for Detroit. Boston beat the Phillies in five games for the 1915 World Series title, but while he was a champion in his first season, Mays did not appear in any of the games.

The next couple seasons saw Mays slowly transition from splitting time more evenly between the ‘pen and rotation to becoming an established rotation presence and the ace of a championship staff. Although he was a bit of a loner, there was no denying his competitiveness on the mound. The Red Sox repeated as champions in 1916, and Mays had his best year in Boston in 1917, pitching to a 1.74 ERA (69 ERA-) in 289 innings while also unsurprisingly leading the league in hit by pitches. Only two pitchers in baseball had a better ERA than Mays that year and despite the HBPs, he had a 1.052 WHIP. His pitches simply sank, and many batters could not do any better than hitting it on the ground while hoping it found a hole in the infield:

Yankees infielder Roger Peckinpaugh said Mays threw “a very ‘heavy’ ball. It sinks and when you catch it, it feels heavy enough to almost go through your glove.” Horace Ford, who batted against Mays in the National League, said that hitting Mays’s fastball “was like hitting a chuck of lead. It would go clunk and you’d beat it into the ground.”
– Allan Wood, SABR

Boston finished nine games behind the White Sox for the AL pennant that year, but another fine season by Mays in 1918 brought them back on top. While his ERA and ERA- jumped a bit to 2.21 and 84, respectively, his WHIP was almost identical and he led the league in both shutouts (8) and complete games (30). Those marks were made more impressive by the fact that the season ended early after 126 games on September 2nd due to World War I. The Red Sox played the Cubs in the Fall Classic, and Mays received the ball in Game 3 with the series tied at one game apiece. He beat the Cubs 2-1, going the distance with just one walk allowed, scattering seven hits. Boston and Chicago split the next two games, so Mays got the start in Game 6 to close out the Cubbies, and he did just that by spinning a three-hitter in another 2-1 victory. Mays was the last man to throw a pitch for a championship Red Sox team in the next 86 years.

Although his teammates were not fond of Mays for his somewhat antisocial personality and irritance on the mound when they committed errors, it seemed as though Boston and Mays had a fine relationship. It all came to a sudden halt in 1919. Boston struggled to give him much run support, and Mays became highly frustrated with the offense. From a personal standpoint, his Missouri home had burned down, and he grew so annoyed with the Philadelphia fans during one series that he hurled a baseball from the dugout at a fan. Finally, in a July 13th game against the White Sox, catcher Wally Schang clocked him in the head with a throw on a stolen base by Eddie Collins.

Soon afterward, manager and future Yankees GM Ed Barrow removed him from the game, and he stormed off the field, chucking the ball against the backstop. Mays was suspended by the Red Sox and told sportswriters that he demanded a trade. Soon, owner Harry Frazee obliged, sending Mays to the Yankees on July 29th in exchange for two unremarkable pitchers and $40,000.

“Carl, this is [co-owner] Cap Huston of the Yankees. I called to find out if you would be interested in pitching for the Yankees. If you are, there’s a good chance of my swinging a deal for you tonight, but I didn’t want to get all tangled up in negotiations if you wouldn’t pitch for us.”
“Well, how about the money?”
“We’ll have no problems there. Just pack your bag, and by the time you get here, we’ll be ready to talk contract.”
– excerpted from Marty Appel’s “Pinstripe Empire”

AL president Ban Johnson was furious about the trade since a suspended player was dealt and essentially controlled his own fate over the authority of the Red Sox owner. The reserve clause was supposed to bind a player to his team without much control over it, but Mays worked around the system. He demanded that the trade be voided and that Mays be returned to Boston, but Yankee owners Jacob Ruppert and Cap Huston flat-out refused and told Johnson that if necessary, they would go to court to keep Mays on the Yankees. New York State Supreme Court Justice Robert F. Wagner granted a temporary injunction allowing Mays to pitch for the Yankees.

Johnson’s decision was rendered meaningless, and Mays made 13 starts for the Yankees down the stretch as the team bid to pass the infamous “Black Sox” in the AL pennant race. Although the White Sox ended up running away with the pennant as the Yankees finished in third place with an 80-59 record, it was not Mays’ fault by any means. He was outstanding, pitching to a 1.65 ERA and 51 ERA-, winning nine of his starts, completing all but one of them, and throwing a shutout as well. In just 13 starts, he was worth 2.6 rWAR and 2.2 fWAR for a rising Yankees team. They had their ace, and now they needed a hitting star. They enlisted Mays’ former rotationmate Ruth, who was a pretty fair hitter.

With Mays and Ruth in tow, the Yankees had a superb team ready for the 1920 campaign. They finished the year with a then-franchise record 95 wins and a .617 winning percentage, though they ended up behind pennant-winning Cleveland by two games. The race between the two teams was sadly marred by tragedy in a game on August 16th at the Yankees’ home, the Polo Grounds.

Mays was in the midst of another fine season, wherein he led the league with six shutouts, pitched 312 innings, and ended with a 3.06 ERA (81 ERA-). The unpopular Mays faced perhaps his polar opposite at the plate leading off the fifth inning in beloved Cleveland shortstop Ray Chapman, a perennially fantastic player who had already amassed a 28.9 fWAR career in just nine years and 1,051 games with Cleveland. He was only 29, a potential Hall of Famer in the making. Even Cobb liked him. However, Chapman had a tendency to lean over the plate, and Mays threw an inside fastball toward him to start this at-bat. What happened next was unclear: either Chapman ducked unfortunately right into the ball’s path attempting a drag bunt, or he never moved at all. Either way, it got him square in the temple with a sickeningly loud crack.

It struck Chapman so hard that the ball caromed back toward the mound, and Mays’ immediate action was to throw the ball to first base in case it hit Chapman’s bat. Chapman’s teammates helped him off the field, as he was still conscious. They brought him to St. Lawrence Hospital, where he was diagnosed with a fractured skull and died the next day, the only player to ever die as the result of a pitch in an MLB game.

“It was the most regrettable incident of my career, and I would give anything if I could undo what has happened.“
– Carl Mays

The whole incident was a horrible experience for everyone involved; Mays was contrite but overall did not handle it particularly well, noting that there was scuff on the ball (which he always normally liked to do anyway), and that he didn’t expect Chapman to duck into the ball. He insisted to his dying day that he did not throw at Chapman. Regardless, the tragedy only emphasized the reason why baseball banned the spitball at the beginning of the year, with only those who already threw it allowed to use it via grandfather clause. Strangely, it still took over 35 years before players started wearing helmets in the batter’s box.

Mays became synonymous with Chapman’s death, and while he pitched another nine years in The Show, most people only remember Mays for that tragic pitch. Mays’ best season in New York actually occurred the very next year. He did what he could to put the incident behind him and paced the league with 27 wins, 49 games (38 starts), and a career-high 336.2 innings pitched. He was brilliant in a 4.5-fWAR campaign, and the Bombers outlasted Cleveland to win their first pennant in franchise history. Mays completed nine of his ten starts down the stretch and even tossed in a relief appearance; the Yankees won all but one of those games.

In the first game of the unusual best-of-nine, all-Polo Grounds World Series against John McGraw’s Giants, Mays put the Yankees ahead with a dominant five-hit shutout. He didn’t walk anyone, and only two batters made it past first base. The teams split the next two games, and Mays had the chance to give the Yankees a 3-1 series lead in Game 4, but Phil Douglas outpitched him. Mays held a slim 1-0 lead into the top of the eighth, but an Irish Meusel triple, singles by Johnny Rawlings and Fred Snyder, and a two-run double by George Burns gave the Giants three runs. The Yankees lost 4-2 to even the series.

Manager Miller Huggins turned back to Mays on just two days’ rest in Game 7 with the series even at 3-3. The only other starter in the pitching well was Waite Hoyt, so the Yankees were desperate. Mays did just about all he could do, allowing just six hits to the Giants, but a two-out double by Snyder in the seventh scored Rawlings, who reached on an error by second baseman Aaron Ward. Again, the Yankees were unable to do much against Douglas, and they lost 2-1. The Giants finished off the series five games to three on the strength of a 1-0 four-hit shutout by Art Nehf against Hoyt. There was some talk that Mays fixed the game in the two losses, but that was never proven and seems highly risky and unlikely given the then-recent lifetime bans suffered by the “Black Sox” players who threw the 1919 World Series. The Giants were just a damn good team, and they beat one of the best pitchers in baseball during the tiring late innings of two games.

With almost 2,000 regular season and playoff innings on Mays’ arm in seven seasons, he began to decline somewhat at age 30 in 1922. He was still a solid pitcher with a 3.60 ERA and a 90 ERA-, but he was never as dominant as he was in ‘21 ever again. The Yankees won their second straight pennant in ’22 and again faced McGraw’s Giants in the World Series. This time, it was not nearly as close. The series returned to a best-of-seven and the Giants won Games 1 and 3 to take a 2-0 lead (Game 2 ended in a 3-3 tie called on account of darkness). Mays got the nod in Game 4, but despite getting staked to an early two-run advantage, a four-run fifth led to a 4-3 loss. The Giants finished off their undefeated series with a 5-3 victory in Game 5, as Nehf finished off the Yankees for the second straight year.

The Yankees had grown weary of Mays by 1923, and they reportedly sought to trade him before the season. Nothing happened though, so Huggins just barely used him throughout the Yankees’ pennant three-peat. Mays pitched poorly when he did appear, so it was not as though the Yankees were squandering anyone valuable. He did not appear in the Fall Classic of the Yankees’ first championship, as they finally beat the Giants.

The Cincinnati Reds bought Mays from the Yankees after the ’23 campaign, and he managed to stick around with them for five more years, alternating between healthy and injury-plagued seasons. He had a comeback season at age 34 in ’26, leading the NL with 24 complete games and pitching to a 3.14 ERA (85 ERA-) in 281 innings, a 4.7 fWAR season. The Reds finished just two games behind the Cardinals for the NL pennant. Exhausted, Mays pitched just 144.2 innings over his next two years with the Reds, and finished his MLB career with one mediocre season on McGraw’s Giants as the decade came to a close.

Mays pitched two years in the minor league American Association and Pacific Coast League, then officially ended his playing career at age 40. His baseball career did not fully conclude though; he had made amends with the Cleveland organization and scouted for them, Milwaukee, and Kansas City over the next 20 years. He lived until he was 79 years old, passing away in ‘71 with the game a whole lot different than it was when he began. Mays was a crucial member of the first Yankee teams of any sustained success, and his contributions to those teams should not be forgotten.

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See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Dave Dombrowski has done a lot of good things with the Phillies, the best being the ability to convince John Middleton to open his wallet for free agents. Some of his signings have stunk, but some have been quietly solid. Where he has struggled though is building a consistently good bullpen that will get the team from quality starts to victories. Once he traded for Jhoan Duran, he got himself a top notch end of game piece that locks down games for them, but he still needed some bridges to get to Duran. He had some, like Jose Alvarado and Matt Strahm, but once Strahm was up for arbitration, they moved on from him in a trade. The player he acquired, Jonathan Bowlan, had a strong season in his first for the Phillies.

Is there anything more that he can tap into?

2026 stats: 59 G, 56 1/3 IP, 31.9 K%, 6.6 BB%, 1.28 HR/9, 47.8 GB%, 3.36 ERA (3.37 FIP)

What went right

Bowlan was quite the find this year for the Phillies, eventually becoming their second most trusted reliever as the season wore on. That title belonged to Brad Keller at the beginning of the year, but the combination of the injury to Keller and effective pitching by Bowlan elevated him in the pecking order.

He used a hard, riding fastball to establish himself at the top of the zone quite well. Compared to league average, it had more “ride” than the rest of the league, which was surprising. He used that ride with velocity that hit triple digits a few times to get on top of hitters, complementing it with a slider that was a hard breaker down and away to righties, sent to the backfoot on lefties. He did all the things one wants a reliever to do: induce swing and miss, keep the ball on the ground (mostly) and be able to get outs on his own without relying on a leaky defense.

What went wrong

The biggest obstacle for Bowlan looked to be himself. He just wore down at the end of the year. Consider that on September 2, after his outing the night before, Bowlan had a nice ERA of 2.82 with peripherals and back of the baseball card numbers that looked just as good. Then, in his next five outings, he allowed a home run and was sent to the injured list for a breather.

When you struggled to earn the trust of a manager like Mattingly, gaining that trust back is difficult if there is an injury holding him back, but the playoff inning he threw looked like that trust was basically evaporated.

Final grade: B+

One of the major criticisms of Don Mattingly was his usage of the bullpen. Towards, the end of the season, there were only two relievers that he actually trusted, Bowlan being one of them, Jhoan Duran being the other. With Duran, there was not much of a time where he was warmed up without the intention of bringing him into the game. With Bowlan (and others), this was not the same case. The term that most use for this is “dry humping”, where relievers are warmed up, only to not be used in the game at all. Even if they aren’t used, getting them heated is still using them and wearing them down.

Bowlan probably led the league in this at the end of the year. It felt like each game where the Phillies at least sniffed a lead, Bowlan got heated, which likely caused some of his issues.

The team needs more bullpen arms to make sure this doesn’t happen yet again.

But some of the onus of improvement for Bowlan falls back into his own lap. Is there another gear he can kick into where he can take a leap into a different tier of reliever? The homer prone-ness he showed was concerning, but you do have to wonder if that was a combination of tired and/or hurt at the end of a long season of high leverage usage. Now that he has done it, he may be better prepared and can avoid or at the least improve on it. He’s an important part of this bullpen as currently constructed. He’s got to get better at the end of seasons.

Let’s do another free agent poll!

The Rangers are looking to improve their offense this offseason. They currently don’t have a definitive option at DH, and may have other holes, depending on if they decide to stab me in the heart with a pencil and trade Corey Seager.

The good news is that there’s a veteran DH on the market who is coming off a very solid season at the plate, slashing .235/.329/.487. He also has a reputation as a good clubhouse guy, and likely will command just a one year deal at a not-too-expensive number. You may have heard of him before — his name is Joc Pederson.

For Pederson, Baseball America projects 1 year, $12 million. The projections at Fangraphs do not include Pederson. Kiley McDaniel has Pederson in his “other free agents of note” category. MLB Trade Rumors has Pederson at 1 year, $14 million.

Let’s split the difference of the two projections and go with one year, $13 million.

Would you want the Rangers to sign Joc Pederson to a 1 year, $13 million deal?

Cast your vote below…