Category: MLB

MLB Rumors: Bo Bichette and the New York Mets are in agreement on a three year, $126 million deal, per multiple reports. The deal reportedly includes opt outs after each of the first two years.

Bichette, who turns 28 in March, had spent his entire career with the Toronto Blue Jays, who selected him in the second round of the 2016 draft. The son of former major league Dante Bichette, he established himself as a regular in the 2021 season, when he made the All Star team, finished 12th in the MVP voting, and led the American League in hits while slashing .298/.343/.484.

A bat-first shortstop, Bichette has a career .294/.337/.469 slash line, and has had an OPS over 800 in every season other than his injury-shortened 2024 campaign, when he put up a 598 OPS in 81 games. His glove is a concern, however — he was in the bottom 1 percent in range in 2025, per Statcast — and it has been anticipated he would have to move off of the position in the relatively near future. With Francisco Lindor at shortstop and the newly acquired Marcus Semien at second base, Bichette, who has only played shortstop and DH in the majors, will presumably move out of the middle infield in 2026.

Let’s play a little game.

Player 1: 22 homers, 73 RBIs.

Players 2: 19 homers, 72 RBIs.

Here’s where this gets fun (and, yes, please spare us the rant about homers and RBIs not mattering, we’ll get to our point shortly).

Player 1 just landed a $240 million contract with a $60 million annual average value, the most for any non-two-way player in MLB history.

Player 2 is perhaps the most unpopular player among fans on his team.

For those guessing, Player 1 is the newest Dodger, Kyle Tucker, while Player 2 is embattled Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe.

Tucker landing with the Dodgers on Thursday did not raise as many questions about how the Dodgers yet again landed a premier free agent with their seemingly never-ending supply of cash, but more of a focus on just how Tucker — a very good-to-elite but non-MVP-level player — landed $60 million per season.

To put that in perspective, he’s making $20 million more per season than Aaron Judge, who has three MVPs to his name, compared to the lone fifth-place AL finish from Tucker in 2023.

He’s making $9 million more per season that Juan Soto, who has five top-six MVP finishes.

Heck, he’s making roughly $35 million more on average per season than two-time NL MVP Bryce Harper.

Obviously, contracts are signed at different times and in different markets. Tucker would not have been the top free agent last year with Soto, but this year’s class lacked elite position players.

MLB is not like football, though, where each quarterback that signs a deal precedes the previous one in terms of setting the record for the position.

The Dodgers didn’t have to pay Tucker $60 million to top some previous deal, yet both they and the Mets — who offered $220 million over four years and then pivoted to signing Bo Bichette on Friday — had no problems doing so.

So, there’s clearly a reason.

Let’s start with his age.

Tucker turns 29 on Saturday, and team are always willing to pay a premium for players already in or entering their prime.

Judge signed his nine-year, $360 million deal before his age-31 season. Soto received his 15-year, $765 million deal prior to his age-26 campaign.

Teams want to play players entering their prime, and they’re more willing to do so for players who have their best years ahead of them versus those exiting that stage.

Then, there’s his Baseball Savant page (we apologize for the nerdiness in advance).

When you take a look at Tucker’s profile, there is a whole lot of red and that’s a really good thing.

He ranked in the 98th percentile in chase rate, 96th percentile in walk rate, 93rd percentile in expected weighted on-base average), 90th percentile in batting run value and 85th percentile in strikeout rate.

Those are categories that teams emphasize.

Tucker is a player who controls the zone, walks a ton and doesn’t strike out a lot.

Those players are extremely valued in today’s sport.

Let’s compare him to Judge and Soto in these metrics for 2025.

Tucker ranks very well in those categories, although he’s clearly not on Judge and Soto’s level.

Looking beyond just 2025, Tucker ranks 10th in both weighted runs created plus over the last five years and wins above replacement.

He’s been a very, very good player for the last five years, although he has yet to truly have an elite season that puts him in the talk for the best players in the sport.

One other point to consider is that the Dodgers may have been paying up now for a premium bat knowing they won’t be doing so in the near future.

The next two free agent markets are rather bad for hitters, with next winter’s class being headlined by Jazz Chisholm Jr., Nico Hoerner and perhaps Dalton Varsho.

The 2027 class features William Contreras, Freddie Freeman (who will be 38) and Jeremy Pena.

Those players — excluding Freeman, who will be 38 at the time — are not at the franchise cornerstone level where they are worth hundreds of millions.

You add these factors together, and while it’s OK to disagree, the Dodgers felt that giving Tucker more money per year than Judge and Soto made sense in their quest for a three-peat.

The Detroit Tigers draft strategy under Scott Harris has focused on prep talent and a few value plays for college players. That has left them looking for bargain development projects with their other picks in order to save the money to go overslot on their main targets. Right-hander Preston Howey fits that mold, receiving the minimum bonus to sign as a college senior out of St. Mary’s College as the Tigers’ 14th rounder in the 2024 draft. The now 23-year-old Howey didn’t receive any particular notice on draft day, but he emerged as a low key interesting relief prospect for the Tigers in 2025.

Howey threw a little in 2024 after the draft, and then began the 2025 season at High-A West Michigan. He worked in a relief role for most of the season before the Tigers let him stretch out and make nine starts to close out the year. He threw 62 innings total, posting a 3.19 ERA. A bout of walks over his final few starts hurt his peripheral numbers but were likely caused by the extra workload late in his first pro season. Prior to that he’d pounded the strikezone and was very rarely hit hard.

The right-hander stands just 5’10” with a compact, athletic build and gets a little above average extension to the plate. He’s shown a little increase in velocity in pro ball, as Howey was pretty comfortably sitting 94 mph later in the season and touching 95-96 mph. A relatively low release gives him decent plane to the top of the zone, and a year of work turning his above average fastball spin into better riding action out of his three-quarters arm slot helped him take better advantage of those traits. Still, it’s not explosive ride and he’ll need a little more gas to really turn the fastball into an above average weapon.

The breaking ball is a firm slider at 87 mph and while it played down a little due to its inconsistency, the best ones were above average with tight late break. His circle change is about the same speed and while it doesn’t fall off the table, its deception and late fade drew some ugly swings from Midwest League hitters. That pitch is unlikely to be a significant factor for him unless there’s a real breakthrough. As a four year college pitcher, Howey does have more experience and less obvious upside than some, but if he can find a bit more velo and break that slider off consistently he’ll rapidly become a more interesting relief prospect.

Howey already has pretty solid fastball command, and he used that to good effect in High-A. Hitters rarely hit anything hard in the air, and while he didn’t draw a ton of whiffs with his slider, those should come with better command of the pitch. While the Tigers did move him into a starting role late in the year, that was probably more out of necessity, and not his actual path to an eventual big league role. If he can build a little more velocity to sit 96-97 mph in relief and refine the slider a little more, he’ll turn himself into a quality middle relief prospect next summer as he tackles the Double-A level.

Waking up to the news that the Rays traded Josh Lowe was bittersweet.

The first thing I wrote for DRaysBay was how excited I was about Josh Lowe heading into the 2023 season. The power and speed combo was exciting at the time, and the data suggested all he needed was an opportunity. Fast forward almost three years later, and I still think Josh Lowe can be an everyday ML player. I’m happy for him that he’ll have that opportunity with the Angels.

With that said, let’s look at the Rays 2026 outlook.

Short-term impact of the trade

I’m excited about the path to playing time this provides for Jacob Melton. Jacob Melton (and subsequently the Rays OF production and offense as a whole) might be the biggest winner in this trade.

I’ve already written about Melton, but a summary of what to expect from him is that he provides plus power, speed, and defense at all three OF positions with enough of a hit tool to make him an above average everyday player. Melton will have an even greater opportunity to win a roster spot during spring training.

The Rays also acquired a one-year stopgap in Gavin Lux – possibly to buy some time before Jadher Areinamo could be ready to take over the everyday 2B role in 2027. Lux seems like a relatively safe player the further he gets from his ACL tear in 2023, but his profile may be a bit redundant as he is incredibly similar on both sides of the ball to Richie Palacios (who also has dealt with some knee-related injuries). But Lux has no options, so I expect him to be on the Opening Day roster with some kind of role that includes reps at second base. Palacios has one more option year remaining, so he may be on the outside-looking-in this spring.

Lux has been a roughly average producer in his career. He pairs below average power with an above average hit tool to provide value at multiple positions. Lux’s acquisition continues the trend we’ve seen this offseason where the Rays are leaning more into bat-to-ball ability, possibly at the expense of power and impact.

The second base depth chart took a hit when Brandon Lowe was traded away, but it looks to be in an okay spot now with Lux. I think recent returnee Brett Wisely might not have a seat on the roster when the music stops at the end of spring training. He’s almost certainly behind both Lux and Palacios on the depth chart as a LH utility guy who can play a decent second base. Wisely is also out of options, so he might not even make it to AAA to serve as depth.

Long-term impact of the trade

This trade doesn’t end at Melton and Lux though. I think the main target in this trade was Chris Clark.

Clark is a low-slot RHP with a fastball that sits in the low 90s and can touch 95-96 at times. He’s 6’4, so his lower release height relative to his frame coupled with above average extension adds a layer of deception that helps his stuff play up a bit. He primarily works off an average two-seam fastball in the zone, and he has flashed a four-seam variant for whiffs above the zone.

Clark’s best pitch is his low 80s sweepy breaking ball. It’s an above average pitch that he’s comfortable throwing to both sides of the plate and he has plus feel for it. Clark also has shown a mid 80s offspeed pitch that looks like a split or kick grip with above average vertical separation from his fastball. While it might not be a viable offering yet, I think that it might be an above average pitch someday if he can continue to refine his command of it and maybe find a way to add some velocity separation from the fastball (that could mean adding more heat to the fastball or subtracting some from the offspeed pitch).

The command and control across Clark’s arsenal looks average and he doesn’t currently generate a ton of swing and miss, so he fits the profile of a backend starter right now; however, if he continues to develop his offspeed pitch or add a cutter to bridge his fastball and breaking ball shapes, I could see a mid-rotation starter. His feel for spin evident in his breaking ball suggests a cutter might be relatively easy for him to add to his toolbox.

Either way, Clark doesn’t appear to have much reliever risk as there’s room to add velocity, more pitches, and even refine his command.

Conclusion

The Rays traded from a position of surplus at the major league level to gain a pitching prospect they’ve potentially coveted while simultaneously filling a gap at second base in the short-term.

Interestingly, Gavin Lux is essentially Richie Palacios without options, as they have nearly identical power, plate skills, and defensive versatility.

Chris Clark is a slower-burn development project for Winston Doom and his team, but I think if we squint, we can see a potential mid rotation starter with interesting release traits and a pair of solid secondary pitches.

The Tampa Bay Rays, Anaheim Angels and Cincinnati Reds have made an interesting three-team trade that has former Rangers pitcher Brock Burke going from Anaheim to Cincinnati, Chris Clark going from Anaheim to Tampa, Gavin Lux going from Cincinnati to Tampa, and Josh Lowe going from Tampa to Anaheim.

From Anaheim’s perspective, this is a move that fits in with what they’ve been doing all offseason — acquiring players coming off a bad year(s) but who have been successful in the past, in the hope of recapturing that past glory. Lowe, a lefthanded hitting right fielder who turns 28 next month, and who is the younger brother of former Ranger first baseman Nathaniel Lowe, had a big 2023 season for the Rays, slashing .292/.335/.500 in 501 plate appearances, going 32 for 35 on the basepaths, and putting up a 3.7 bWAR.

Lowe has not come close to that the past two seasons, however. In 2024-25, he has put up a .230/.292/.378 slash line in 822 plate appearances with a 0.8 bWAR, albeit while continuing to be very good on the basepaths (43 of 48 on stolen base attempts). He has especially struggled against lefthanded pitchers, putting up a 459 OPS in 2025 and a 547 OPS in 2024.

So Lowe would seem to be, at this point, a marginal platoon outfielder. He is, however, in just his first year of arbitration eligibility, and is under team control through 2028. If the Angels can get him hitting again like they did in 2023, they have a pretty good player for a decent period of time.

The cost to the Angels is fairly slight. Burke, a 29 year old lefty, was originally acquired by the Rangers from Tampa in a different three-team trade seven years. After having his career de-railed due to shoulder issues, Burke ended up being a surprisingly good member of the Rangers’ bullpen in 2022. He regressed in 2023, though, and ended up being waived early in 2024 after putting up a 9.22 ERA in 13 innings. He was claimed on waivers by the Angels and has been a useful middle reliever for them since then, with a 3.40 ERA in 82 innings over 90 appearances.

Burke is a free agent after 2026, as is Lux, so the Reds are not gaining or losing anything from a team control perspective in this swap. Lux was once a consensus top 10 prospect in MLB while coming up in teh Los Angeles Dodgers’ system, and his presence was part of the reason the Dodgers were willing to let Corey Seager depart. Lux missed all of 2023 due to injury, though. Upon his return in 2024, he slashed .251/.320/.383 while splitting time between second base and shortstop.

The Reds acquired Lux for outfielder Mike Sirota and a competitive balance pick last offseason in a deal that worked out great for L.A., as Sirota is now their #3 prospect (per BA) after posting an OPS in excess of 1000 while splitting the 2025 season between low-A and high-A, and they used the draft pick of Arkansas outfielder Charles Davalan, their #6 prospect, per BA.

Lux put up a good OBP but hit for little power in 2025, slashing .269/.350/.374 with 5 homers in 503 plate appearances while splitting time between DH, left field, and second base. The Reds apparently saw enough, and cashed him in for Brock.

This doesn’t look like a real exciting return for the Rays. Lux gives them a multi-positional guy who gets on base, and we know that they like that, but they only get him for a year. Clark was a 2023 5th round pick out of Harvard who hasn’t made BA’s top 30 list for the Angels either of the past two seasons.

For at least one season, the New York Mets' lineup should once again be elite, and a treacherous prospect for opposing pitchers. 

Their Jan. 16 agreement with infielder Bo Bichette on a three-year, $126 million deal doesn't necessarily replace departed slugger Pete Alonso, but invigorates the lineup with one of the game's most elite hitters. 

And Mets fans still crying over the loss of No. 1 free agent Kyle Tucker to the Los Angeles Dodgers are now reminded that they have plenty of All-Stars and future Hall of Famers, too. 

Combined with $765 million man Juan Soto and perpetual All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor, Bichette both lengthens and diversifies New York's lineup. Bichette banged out 181 hits in 139 games in 2025, and twice led the AL in hits, in 2021 (191) and 2022 (189). 

It also lessens the reliance on young cornermen Mark Vientos and Brett Baty, who will still get plate appearances at first, third and designated hitter, along with previous acquisition Jorge Polanco.  But don't get too comfortable: Bichette has opt-out clauses after the first two years of this deal, and a healthy and regularly productive 2026 season means he'll almost certainly hit the market again next winter at age 28.

Mets projected starting lineup with Bo Bichette

1. Francisco Lindor, SS
2. Juan Soto, RF
3. Bo Bichette, 3B
4. Jorge Polanco, 1B
5. Marcus Semien, 2B
6. Mark Vientos / Brett Baty, DH
7. Francisco Alvarez, C
8. Carson Benge, LF (prospect)
9. Tyrone Taylor, CF

Kyler Tucker, the top free agent on the market, just signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers. He signed a 4-year deal that pays him $60 million a year. Just like last offseason, the defending champs are pretty much buying an All-Star team. As much as some people do not want to admit it, the MLB has a Dodgers problem. However, the Washington Nationals are also a problem for the MLB.

With the CBA expiring after this season, baseball has a lot of problems to resolve. They have to solve the Dodgers problem and the Nationals problem. One team is a financial super power with unprecedented access to cash, while the other team refuses to give out free agent contracts worth more than $15 million.

All of this is alienating fans and setting the stage for an inevitable showdown at the CBA negotiation table. Fans have pretty much come to terms with the fact that there will be a lockout next year. The only question now is how long will the work stoppage last. Hopefully it does not eliminate the entire season.

It is crystal clear that the MLB financial system is broken. Right now, the Dodgers are paying more in luxury tax bills than 11 teams are in total payroll. On both ends of the spectrum, that is a problem. Fans do not want to see teams buy a dynasty, but they also do not want to see other teams not try to win at all.

This is why many fans are warming up to the idea of a salary cap and salary floor system. It is what we see in the NBA, NFL and NHL. This system works well also. We see non-traditional markets succeed in a way that would be impossible to pull off in the MLB. In this system, the Kansas City Royals creating a dynasty would be basically impossible. 

Some fans argue that any owner can spend like the Dodgers. Maybe that was true five or six years ago, but this just ignores the economic reality of the situation now. Including the luxury tax, the Dodgers expenses are over half a billion at this point. There are only a handful of teams that could sustain that level of spending.

Some fans may not want to admit it, but the MLB has a serious Dodgers problem. Their insane TV deal, access to international markets and hedge fund led ownership group gives them a situation other teams cannot compete with. This is fun for Dodgers fans, but a real bummer for the other 29 fanbases.

However, the Dodgers are not the only problem the MLB is going to have to deal with. The Washington Nationals represent the other side of the coin. After winning the World Series in 2019 with a top 10 payroll, Nationals ownership suddenly stopped spending money.

It has gotten to the point where the Nats are one of the most frugal teams in all of baseball. On the surface, it appears as if Nats ownership has totally checked out. That is a problem and is alienating the fanbase. Since the 2020-21 offseason, the Nats have not given out a free agent contract worth more than $15 million. This is honestly a slap in the face for fans.

A salary floor is needed in this sport. As smart as teams like the Brewers and Rays are, they will never overcome the financial firepower of the Dodgers. Even the bigger market teams are struggling to keep up with the financial Goliath that is the Los Angeles Dodgers.

When the Nats and Dodgers take the field for the Nationals home opener, there will be 14 players making at least $10 million. All 14 of them will be wearing Dodgers blue. This is just an example of a system that is completely broken.

Forget about owners vs players for a second, this system is not in the best interest of the consumer. Baseball is built on the backs of the fans. Right now, the system is not working for the fans. Only three or four teams have any chance to grab the real free agents. We pretty much know who will win the World Series already.

The CBA is looming like a dark shadow over the league right now. Nobody is happy with the status quo at the moment and there is a real appetite for change among fans. Owners will be fighting for a salary cap, and for the first time in recent memory, the fans will be behind them.

However, a salary cap simply will not work without a floor. The Dodgers are not the only problem here. Teams like the Nationals are just as big of an issue. The Nationals are not a small market club, but ownership is spending like that. They have thrown in the towel. This is not only bad for Nats fans, but also the sport.

A work stoppage is coming after this season. Hopefully the fans are considered in these negotiations. I have my doubts because the more likely scenario is the owners and players fighting for their own interests. As the MLB grows as a financial entity, it feels like the fans are being left behind.

Jeff Passan is reporting that the Mets and Bo Bichette have agreed to a three-year, $126 million contract. That is $41.5 million a year, which is more than I would want to pay him, but I would want him on a short contract like they got. It also seems like a lot of money for a second baseman.

I’m sad that I’m not going get to watch him play every day. I’m a fan.

I’d imagine that the Jays are finished with major signings, unless there is a closer out there that they would like more than Hoffman.

Such is life.

In the seven seasons he was with the Jays, Bo hit .294/.337/.469 with 111 home runs, and a 21.0 bWAR in 748 games.

Update: Apparently Bo has an opt-out after each of the first two seasons, and there are no deferrals. He’s going to play third base.

Not even 24 hours after losing out on the Kyle Tucker sweepstakes, the Mets pivoted and signed, perhaps, the best hitter still on the market, inking Bo Bichettte to a three-year, $126 million contract. The contract has no deferrals, a full no-trade clause, and features opt-outs after the first two seasons, as well as a $5 million ’opt out bonus’. Bichette, son of former MLB All-Star Dante Bichette is entering his age 28 season and is a career .294/.337/.483 hitter, playing primarily shortstop in his big league career thus far.

It is the positional question that is most interesting in this signing, as the Mets’ middle infield is fairly set, with Francisco Lindor locked in at shortstop, the recently acquired, reigning Gold Glove winner Marcus Semien at second base, and Brett Baty seemingly finally getting a shot to play everyday at third. Whether Bichette plans to play third or first or if one of the already entrenched players is potentially going to move positions or perhaps be traded all remains to be seen.

Update: Jon Heyman cites sources claiming Bichette will be playing third base for the Mets.

Bichette has battled injuries over the past two seasons, missing half of 2024 with a right calf strain and a fractured middle finger and missing the last month of the 2025 regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs with a left knee injury. This big money, short term deal with opt-outs allows him to rebuild his value, prove his health and test free agency again.

The New York Mets' largely moribund off-season took a dramatic turn for the better Jan. 16, as the club agreed to terms with All-Star shortstop Bo Bichette on a three-year, $126 million deal, according to a baseball official with direct knowledge of the deal.

The person spoke to USA TODAY Sports on condition of anonymity because the deal has not been finalized.

Bichette's stay in New York could be a brief one: He has opt-out clauses after each of the first two seasons, and can reenter the free agent market at 28 next winter, unencumbered by draft-pick compensation.

Bichette was the last premier free agent available and his agreement with the Mets comes just hours after slugger Kyle Tucker, the consensus No. 1 player on the market, spurned them for a four-year, $160 million deal. Now, the Mets have an admirable infield alignment and, once again, a daunting lineup, with Bichette likely to play third base, All-Star Francisco Lindor at shortstop, trade acquisition Marcus Semien at second and a combination of Jorge Polanco and Mark Vientos at first.

Bichette, the former Toronto Blue Jays' shortstop, played a pivotal role in the team's trip to the 2025 World Series, posting a .311/.357/.483 slash line in 139 regular season games before sitting out the first two rounds of the playoffs due to a knee injury. He returned and had eight hits and a key home run in the Blue Jays' seven-game World Series loss to the Dodgers.

Here's everything to know regarding Bichette's new contract.

In an emphatic pivot, the Mets are signing infielder Bo Bichette to a three-year deal, per multiple reports.

The contract is worth $126 million, contains two opt-outs, and does not have any deferrals.

New York's agreement with Bichette comes less than 24 hours after Kyle Tucker chose to sign with the Dodgers for four years and $240 million after turning down the Mets' offer of four years and $220 million.

Before signing with the Mets, Bichette had been heavily linked to the Phillies and a possible reunion with the Blue Jays. The Yankees had also reportedly checked in.

With the Mets adding Bichette to play third base, there are plenty of ways they can go with the rest of the infield.

One possibility has Brett Baty sliding to first base and Jorge Polanco serving as the primary DH.

It's also possible the Mets explore the trade market for Baty, possibly in an effort to fill a need in the outfield.

Bichette, who turns 28 in March, had let interested teams know he was willing to move off shortstop, which opened the door for the Mets (and other teams who had the middle infield filled) to pounce.

In 139 games last season for the Jays, Bichette slashed .311/.357/.483 with a 129 OPS+. He had 18 home runs, 44 doubles, and 94 RBI.

As far as his advanced numbers via Baseball Savant, Bichette was near the top of the league in xBA, xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, sweet spot percentage, whiff percentage, and strikeout percentage.

During his seven-year career -- all with Toronto -- Bichette has hit .294/.337/.469 over 748 games.

A two-time All-Star, Bichette has finished in the top 20 in AL MVP voting four times.

Regarding what comes next for the Mets after inking Bichette, it's likely they'll continue to look for an outfielder and a pitcher who can slot in near the top of their rotation.

Possible outfield targets via trade include Jarren Duran of the Red Sox, Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar of the Cardinals, and Ramon Laureano of the Padres.

Potential starting options include free agent Framber Valdez and trade option Freddy Peralta, who is being dangled by the Brewers.

Prior entries:

• Matt Olson
• Michael Harris II
• Ozzie Albies
• Bryce Elder

The Braves haven’t had too fun of a time lately. Neither has Austin Riley. This isn’t a pure coincidence — a thermonuclear Austin Riley can carry a team for a month, and the Braves haven’t gotten that, for one reason or another, for a while. While the team has maneuvered to be different in terms of coaching and roster construction in 2026, Riley’s production is going to be a big part of whatever the team’s fortune will be going forward.

Career-to-date, status

2026 will be Riley’s eighth MLB season; he’ll turn 29 right around Opening Day. For his career, he has a 122 wRC+ and below-average defense. He’s solidly in well-above-average territory with a career 3.5 fWAR per 600 PAs to date, but that’s very much an average, as he had three straight 5+ fWAR seasons from 2021-2023 but has managed just 4.1 fWAR in his last two seasons combined.

A substantial xwOBA underperformance, like most of his teammates, made Riley’s 2024 look worse than it was. Consistently maligned by defensive metrics, Riley had a bit of a defensive breakout in 2023, but didn’t really sustain it in 2024. Still, it was better than getting worse as he aged.

Riley holds the most lucrative contract in Braves history, signing a $212 million, ten-year deal that includes a club option for an eleventh season in August 2022. He’s due to make $22 million annually in 2026 and every year onward through 2032; his club option has a $20 million salary with no buyout.

Recent performance

As noted, Riley’s production took a dip in 2024 and then again in 2025. The former was not “really” his fault, as his .361 xwOBA in 2024 was in line with his .365 xwOBA in 2023. After a slow start to 2024 outputs-wise, he was hitting really well (not thermonuclear on outputs, but definitely beautiful inputs) in the summer before a hit-by-pitch ended his season.

2025 was more of a struggle for various reasons. His xwOBA dipped to .328, and it was right around that range in both June and July before he succumbed to a series of abdominal strains that necessitated season-ending core surgery. His struggles were very generic: more swing and miss in the zone, but ostensibly without any conscious attempt to do so in order to increase power output — in other words, more swing and miss, worse contact quality. Not what you want to see.

There’s not too much to say beyond that — Riley was just worse, but not really in a way that his teammates were worse in terms of trading power for walks or anything. Whether that bodes well or poorly for him going forward is an open question. Defensively, he rebounded a bit relative to 2024 and looked similar to 2023. At this point, Riley probably won’t be a good defender at third base, but his hard work seems to have moved him from outright bad to okay.

Forecasting

Same brief disclaimer: once upon a time I built a projection system to try to mirror/get at the workings of Steamer and ZiPS. I called it IWAG. You can figure out what that means, maybe. I’m bringing it back for this series of posts. Here’s Riley, for 2026.

You can see the injuries being priced in a bit here, and IWAG forecasts Riley’s wRC+ considerably below his career mark of 122. That latter phenomenon occurs because, well, there’s no good or simple explanation for his 2025 offensively — he just looked kind of broken, even leaving the xwOBA underperformance aside.

This aligns almost exactly with Steamer (3 WAR in 601 PAs, 116 wRC+); ZiPS is the “outlier” as it seems to push his career line forward moreso than any debit for 2025.

The probability distribution from IWAG here is a bit silly due to Riley’s recent injuries — you can see that the distribution of talent is a reasonably normal-looking curve that probably aligns with what you expect, but IWAG figures “injured and ineffective” is more likely than “injured and effective” or “fully healthy and effective,” based on our lived experience of Braves trying to play through injury to no good outcome recently, hence the dip in the middle.

Your turn

Alright, I’ve given you the info. Well, some info. You may have your own info. With that, I ask you:

• Rounded to the nearest fWAR, how much will Austin produce in 2026? (I am once again seriously inveighing that if you ignore this and provide a partial fWAR, I will round it for you, and your scoring will not be based on 1 WAR around your point estimate, but 1 WAR around the rounded number. Just a pick whole number and don’t make me round.)
• How confident are you in your choice? Go with a scale from 1-5, where 3 is “I dunno, reasonably confident,” 5 is certain, and 1 is “I am participating but have no confidence in my choice and don’t want the fact that it will likely be incorrect to affect my place in any theoretical standings all that much.”

The mid-2000s were a strange time for the Yankees. The dynasty of the ‘90s engineered a hangover that lasted almost ten years, where the team regularly returned strong lineups but lacked the pitching depth or that elusive “clutch” gene. In some ways, Gary Sheffield might be the poster boy for this period — he never had a bad regular season for the Yankees, but his first campaign with the team ended in the disaster that was 2004, and the club never got closer than that while he was in pinstripes.

Sheffield’s one of the great mercenaries in the history of baseball, an uber-talented hitter who walked around with a king-sized chip on his shoulder. He made the All-Star team nine times and won five Silver Sluggers during stints with eight teams, winning a ring with the 1997 Florida Marlins. That was already his third team in MLB, and he would be dealt away in ‘98 to the Dodgers, although I’ll attribute that decision more to the infamous post-World Series fire sale than anything to do with his personality. Shef did publicly state how embarrassed he was by the team’s teardown, but that’s not an attitude problem — that’s a statement of fact.

LA and Atlanta followed, and by the time December 2003 rolled around, Sheffield had logged 13 consecutive seasons of excellent hitting, with his worst year being a 123 wRC+ in 1993, split between the Padres and Marlins. The less said about his defense the better, but if you were looking to add a bat and some headlines, you could do a lot worse than Gary Sheffield.

Gary Sheffield
Signing Date: December 19, 2003
Contract: Three years, $39 million

Signed one year to the day after Hideki Matsui, the Yankees were clearly leaning into the bat-first approach — they had Derek Jeter at shortstop Opening Day instead of the shiny new toy Alex Rodriguez. GM Brian Cashman wanted the team to add erstwhile Montreal Expos standout Vladimir Guerrero and reportedly had an agreed-upon contract. But owner George Steinbrenner picked Sheffield, won over by his buggy-whip power swing and close ties to Steinbrenner’s adopted home of Tampa (not to mention a relation to uncle/former New York star Dwight Gooden).

That first season was a tear for Sheff, as he finished runner-up for AL MVP, walloping 36 homers and leading the Yankees in RBI, runs scored, and OPS+. That ugly defense meant he posted just 3.8 fWAR, and the man who actually won MVP was none other than Guerrero. Nonetheless, Sheffield was the offensive force the club was hoping for. He was shuffled between third, fourth, and fifth in the Yankee lineup, producing wherever Joe Torre set him.

His first taste of October in the Bronx went well enough too, on the personal production side anyway. A 134 wRC+, .904 OPS line should be more than enough to placate even the toughest Yankee fans, but of course the end result of that postseason push left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth. Sheffield managed just a single base hit in 17 plate appearances in those doomed four games against Boston, just one of many Bombers who became duds on arguably the biggest stage in baseball history.

The kicker to all this was the season was played while Sheffield worked through a shoulder tear, one that would require surgery in the offseason. Herein lies maybe the most interesting thing about Gary — his attitude questions were real, and he had an ejection history a mile long:

The man was expelled from his Little League team for chasing a coach around at practice with a bat!

Despite that, he would unquestionably chew through concrete to perform at the highest level. He was the best fulltime hitter for the Yankees in his first season while playing with one-and-a-half arms. How much of that was sheer willpower and how much was pharmaceutically driven we’ll never know, but having a bat like Sheffield’s in your lineup would make any team better.

That first season would be Gary’s best, but 2005 was no off-year. A 137 wRC+ came in a year where he once again walked more than he struck out, but an ill-timed magazine story quoted him as possibly shading Jeter and A-Rod as “two players [covered] in a positive light, and everyone else is garbage” hung over yet another run toward October. Against the Angels that fall, Sheffield’s rather interesting defensive instincts were on full display in a fifth concsecutive disappointing postseason for the Yankees.

Poor Bubba Crosby.

That and a 65 wRC+ in an abbreviated October meant the funk was truly setting in for the Yankees, who were roundly becoming the uber-regular season team that fell on its face come playoff time. It wouldn’t get better the next year for Sheffield or the team either, as the slugger was laid low with a wrist injury and appeared in just 39 games. Sidelined for months, the win-now Yankees had to pivot and traded for a new right fielder in the more well-rounded Bobby Abreu. So when Sheffield returned, the Yankees got creative and stuck him at the open first base position with Jason Giambi at DH (primarily because of a wrist injury, but also because the Giambino was far from Don Mattingly on defense). He had never appeared at first before but was a good team sport about it adapting over the final nine games of the regular season. But Sheffield went 1-for-12 in yet another dreadful postseason run and that sealed the end of Gary’s time in New York.

The club did pick up his 2007 team option but sent the disgruntled star to the same team that had just eliminated them in the 2006 ALDS, the Detroit Tigers. Sheffield spent three more years in the bigs, coming to Queens sitting on 499 career home runs:

Gary Sheffield’s Yankee tenure was the epitome of George Steinbrenner’s leadership style. The Yankees outbid anyone they wanted for the biggest star available, even if the fit wasn’t exactly right, the player wasn’t as complete as he could be, or the team wasn’t as well-rounded as it should be. Excellent lineups, bad defense, and shaky pitching was the calling card of those mid-2000s teams, and Sheffield supplied two of those three.

Sheffield probably has a Hall of Fame resume, but his connections to BALCO, listing in the Mitchell Report, and productivity in his later years are all in concert with challenges other PED-linked players have found on their incomplete trips to Cooperstown. He’ll likely never have a plaque there, and his time in New York never got past the finish line, but he remains one of the most unique and feared hitters in baseball history. If I were to compile a list of players I’d most want modern Statcast data on, most want to dig into those underlying hitting tools like exit velocity, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and Barry Bonds would be at the very top, but Gary Sheffield wouldn’t be far behind.

See more of the “50 Most Notable Yankees Free Agent Signings in 50 Years” series here.