Category: MLB

The Yankees are 26-16 and currently in second place in the AL East. Let's open up the mailbag and answer some Yankees questions...

In your opinion, which positions with the Yankees need an upgrade? -- @MrEd315

First of all, the real answer is “not many.”

The Yankees look about as complete as any team I’ve seen outside Los Angeles in several years. I think they will need relief help. And I think they might need to consider another infield bat if Jazz Chisholm Jr.continues to struggle. While Ryan McMahon looks like the best offensive version of himself lately, his career numbers suggest that might not continue. If it does, great. If it doesn’t, the Yankees probably cannot absorb both their third and second baseman struggling offensively if they want to continue cruising through their regular season schedule.

But Chisholm will almost certainly hit sooner or later. He has been open about the impact warmer weather has on him, and his career numbers and underlying metrics suggest better times are coming soon.

As for McMahon, Yankees hitting coaches and teammates have worked so diligently with him that it is possible he is a better hitter now than he used to be. If he outpaces his career OPS (.735) by even 30 points, he will be among the top 10 third baseman in baseball in that category (though admittedly, currently struggling stars like Bo Bichette, Manny Machado, and Matt Chapman seem likely to rise). Still, with his defense, any offense from McMahon is a huge boost. And it is hard to think of another offensive position where the Yanks could even consider upgrading, given the talent they have throughout their roster.

Seems like the concerns of the fans in the offseason – namely not shoring up the pen – are already a problem? -- @mtill50

The bullpen is definitely the weakest link on this roster, though that in itself is not much of an indictment. And while it hasn’t always felt like it, Yankees relievers have actually been very sturdy: Their 3.28 ERA is second only to the Rangers for the best bullpen mark in baseball. Yankees relievers have left 77.1 percent of inherited runners on base, better than all but three teams.

But they are not dominant, and they will need some dominance to make it through October. Their collective Stuff+ rating is middle-of-the-pack. Their swinging strike rating is 10th in baseball. Their strikeouts-per-nine is 17th. Tim Hill and Jake Bird rate highly in Stuff+ individually, but Hill is not a traditional closing option and Bird has not yet proven he can be consistent. Fernando Cruz has been solid. David Bednar has been steady. But neither is blowing hitters away. Still, approximately 28 other teams would be overjoyed to have strong-not-dominant relief options as their biggest problem.

Even so, that unit has shown its cracks as the Yanks have lost four games in a row, three of them late. But cracks in the bullpen are easy to patch midseason, and Brian Cashman has plenty of history of being aggressive in doing so. Though he and his front office have eschewed giving major free agent contracts to elite relievers in recent years, they have traded for multiple relievers during the season in that span. I would assume they plan to do so again, even as arms like those belonging to Carlos Lagrange and others in the minors continue to look like promising options for later this season.

It’s been a real good start, but are there real reasons to believe this season will end any differently than each season since 2010? -- @yankeemac1 on BlueSky

I think there might be more reasons than ever to believe that this season will end differently than every season since their 2009 title, if that’s what you mean (don’t worry, the last decade and a half is a blur for me, too). I think even Aaron Boone and his staff can sense it.

If you’ll remember last October, Boone was adamant that the team that lost to the Blue Jays was one of the best teams he had managed. Now, with a whole offseason of work with McMahon and Jose Caballero and the emergence of Cam Schlittler and the ascension of Max Fried, I have a hard time thinking of a Yankees team that has been better.

In fact, and I will stick by this even if they lose their next 20 games or somehow collapse before our eyes, I think this Yankees team could be the most formidable October challenger the Dodgers have seen in the last two years – particularly after they acquire that inevitable bullpen help in the next few months.

The main reason is their starting pitching: they are deeper than any team but the Dodgers, and maybe even deeper than Los Angeles, depending on how veterans like Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell fare health-wise the rest of the way.

Schlittler is a bona fide ace who pitches like he has never had a doubt in his life. Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon will have plenty of time to figure out their new elbows and less than a full season of innings on their arms by October. Fried looks like a legitimate Cy Young candidate and has proven his October mettle before. They can match up with Snell, Shohei Ohtani, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in a long series, and they can match up with any American League team’s top two starters in a short one.

But beyond that, I think they are also as well-rounded as any Yankees team Boone has had here. No longer is this team just an assembly of huge, station-to-station sluggers. Caballero and Chisholm can really run, and they aren’t afraid to do it. Outside of Giancarlo Stanton, the rest of the lineup is fully capable of stealing bases and has been aggressive in doing so. They can hit for power, but they take enough pitches that they can wear pitchers down and create rallies out of nothing. And with their speed, even a walk is a rally.

Now, for the corny part.

I think the "running it back" concerns that circulated around them this offseason were understandable. I think in some cases (maybe the Phillies, though time will tell), shakeups are needed. But I think with this particular Yankees group, running it back gave a largely veteran roster more time to coalesce. For example, the offseason and spring training built more trust between Aaron Judge and Paul Goldschmidt and McMahon, who has heeded their tutelage offensively and improved because of it. They seem to understand each other’s strengths and take at-bats accordingly. They are comfortable, and they are experienced enough to know what has gone right and wrong for them in the postseason.

I think this is a really, really good team. Of course, we’ve seen really good teams fall in the postseason before. Heck, we’ve seen really good teams fall apart in the regular season before. But this particular really good team is deep, experienced, talented, well-rounded, and comfortable in its own skin. Few teams in recent years, let alone Yankees teams, have been able to say all of that. And even fewer, I gather, have been able to sense it. I think, based on the way veterans talk about their lineup and their clubhouse, that this team does.

Raise your hand if you knew that 41 games into the season — one-quarter of the way — the Braves and Cubs would have the two best records in the National League.

I better not see any hands raised because, no, you didn’t know that. None of us did.

But that should make this a good matchup for this early in the season.

For more on the Braves, here’s Demetrius Bell, manager of our SB Nation Braves site Battery Power.

It’s been a long time (well, a long time for Braves fans) since Atlanta’s looked this good. Despite coming into this series with all types of injury concerns and a lot of legitimate concerns about the pitching staff being able to compete at a high level, things have gone extremely well for the Braves to get this season started. Their 25-10 start through 35 games is actually the best start they’ve had to a season since 1892 (!!!) and while they did end up dropping a series to the Mariners last week, they ended a 6-3 road trip out West with a somewhat comprehensive series win in Los Angeles over the Dodgers. They hadn’t even won a game at Dodger Stadium since 2023 — much less a series. The Braves are rolling and there’s a real sense of excitement about the team at the moment. 

While there was plenty of concern about the pitching staff and the lack of offseason moves that were made to address the questions surrounding the rotation, this appears to have been all part of the plan for Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos. He stated multiple times that he figured that the problem all along for the Braves over their past two seasons had been their lack of hitting (compared to how they mashed the ball in 2022 and 2023). Well, here we are in 2026 and right now, they’re one of the top-hitting teams in all of baseball according to wRC+, wOBA, xwOBA and Isolated Power. 

Matt Olson is playing like the best first baseman (and one of the best players, overall) in baseball at the moment, Drake Baldwin is starting to establish himself as an elite-hitting catcher, Michael Harris II is looking more like the star-caliber player he was during the second half of 2025 instead of the genuinely-awful player he was during the first half of that season and Ozzie Albies is on track for a big-time bounce-back season. Mauricio Dubón has been surprisingly good at the plate as well and they’ve been getting timely hitting from the bench. Walt Weiss has been pushing all the right buttons for most of this squad and some of his pinch hitting/running choices have paid off in spades. 

Pitching-wise, Chris Sale has continued to be consistently good but Bryce Elder has surprisingly been the top guy in the rotation so far. Spencer Strider is back and he looked great during his outing against the Dodgers, so he may be back as well. The questions surrounding the rotation have persisted and that could be Atlanta’s downfall in this series considering that they’ve been going on a series-by-series revolving door of starting pitcher in the back end of their rotation but so far they’ve been relying on Martín Pérez and JR Ritchie to deliver as well. The bullpen has been solid and again, Walt Weiss is managing like someone who understands what high-leverage and low-leverage is. 

The fact that they’ve done all of this with Austin Riley mostly struggling, Ronald Acuña Jr. looking like a normal human being instead of a supernova, Sean Murphy having only played a handful of games and Ha-Seong Kim having played no games is really impressive in my view. I’d say that we haven’t seen this team’s ceiling quite yet, which is exciting for us Braves fans. The Cubs are going to be tough, though and I am really looking forward to seeing how this series shakes out. It should be a fun one!

Fun facts

The Cubs’ next loss to the Braves will be their 900th since 1901, the first season of the Modern Era.

If it comes in this series, it will be their 600th on the road vs. the Braves since 1876, when both were charter members of the new National League. The Cubs have lost exactly 600 on the road against the Phillies.

They have won 556 when visiting the Braves. They are 700-466 at home, for a total record of 1,256-1,065-18. That .541 winning percentage is the Cubs’ second highest against a current NL opponent. They are .544 (285-239) vs. the Padres, who began play in 1969.

Last year, the Cubs won two of three at Atlanta. It was their first series win there since 2018. In 2019-24, they were 3-13.

(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

Probable pitching matchups

Tuesday: Colin Rea, RHP (4-1, 4.03 ERA, 1.368 WHIP, 3.68 FIP) vs. Grant Holmes, RHP (2-1, 4.34 ERA, 1.313 WHIP, 5.03 FIP)

Wednesday: Shōta Imanaga, LHP (4-2, 2.28 ERA, 0.930 WHIP, 2.81 FIP) vs. JR Ritchie, RHP (1-0, 3.63 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 6.88 FIP)

Thursday: Ben Brown, RHP (1-1, 1.82 ERA, 0.910 WHIP, 2.66 FIP) vs. Chris Sale, LHP (6-2, 2.20 ERA, 0.878 WHIP, 3.48 FIP)

Times & TV channels

Tuesday: 6:15 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, TBS (outside the Cubs and Braves market territories)

Wednesday: 6:15 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Thursday: 6:15 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, Peacock (streaming, Braves broadcast, outside the Cubs and Braves market territories)

Prediction

This series will be a good test for the Cubs, as they come in one game behind Atlanta for the best record in the NL.

The Cubs appear to have the advantage re: pitching matchups in two of these three, so I’m picking that, even though the Cubs have not done well at Truist Park historically (10-15 all-time there, though as noted by John, they did win two of three in Atlanta last year).

Also, the Cubs are 21-9 in games started by RHP and just 6-5 vs. games started by LHP, even though overall their OPS vs. LHP (.804) is better than their OPS vs. RHP (.746).

Up next

The Cubs return to Chicago and go to the South Side for a three-game series against the White Sox beginning Friday evening.

Inspiration.

One of my favorite players was named minor league pitcher for the month of April.  Two accomplishments follow:

• Allowed no runs in 9 of his 10 appearances with the Aces.
• His 0.66 ERA ranked second among all Triple-A relievers

In July of 2024, I wrote about the secrets of his success. Circumstances made his future uncertain. He kept his dream alive and he worked hard (extraordinarily hard) to prepare, not knowing if he would ever get an opportunity.

In November of 2025, I wrote his player review.  The review considered three possible additions to the rotation (Yilber Diaz, Cristian Mena, and Kohl Drake), and it noted that Diaz had the fastest average fastball velocity (95.3 MPH vs 94.1 and 93.3/92.7).  Also, the review looked at his control of the strike zone, especially walks per batter faced.  In 2025 AAA, his 28.4% walks per batter faced was high.   Spoiler:  In 2026 through 8 May, his 9.0% walks per batter faced was an awesome improvement (as was his 11.1% in spring training).

Let’s look at reasons he is ready to be called up to the Majors.

Two tables tell the story.

This season in AAA he increased his control of the strike zone.  The first table shows four of the five statistics were improved.  He increased the percentage of pitches in the strike zone, while causing batters to greatly increase their swing rate at pitches outside the strike zone (O-Swing), which likely reduced the batters’ success.  Data from FanGraphs, games through 8 May 2026.

This season, Diaz had more strikeouts than walks. Perhaps more remarkable were his 50% increase in whiffs and his 50% decrease in barrels per PA.  The second table shows nine statistics that were improved. Data from Baseball Savant, games through 8 May.

My conclusion is that he clearly showed he is ready to be called up to the Majors.

What delayed his call up?

In spring training he improved his walk rate. On the other hand, his .33 hits per PA and his barrels per PA were too high.  That sample size was small (18 batters faced) and spring training did not show his full potential.

I’m happy that this season in AAA he overcame the small sample size. With 67 batters faced, he reduced his hits per PA by 50%, and he reduced his barrels per PA by 50%.

A second reason for delay is that the Diamondbacks are a top-5 team in shutdown performances by bullpen pitchers. They are only three shutdowns from being the best in the Majors. My view is that this metric is important for bullpen pitchers (other metrics show them closer to an average bullpen). One of the reasons he won pitcher of the month was that he allowed no runs in 9 of his 10 games. For that reason, he would be a great addition to the bullpen.

Summary.

Last season, Diaz walked too many batters. That issue is gone. This season in AAA his walk rate was much lower, and his ratio of strikeouts to walks was much higher. Perhaps more remarkable were his 50% increase in whiffs and his 50% decrease in barrels per PA. 

This season in AAA he increased his control of the strike zone.  He increased the percentage of pitches in the strike zone, while causing batters to greatly increase their swing rate at pitches outside the strike zone, which reduced the batters’ success. 

One of the reasons he won pitcher of the month was that he allowed no runs in 9 of his 10 games. For that reason, he would be a great addition to the Diamondbacks bullpen, which excels in shutdown performances.

The Yankees offense is in a bit of a rut, losing their last four games by scoring three or fewer runs in each. It coincides with a period in which several of their hitters — Ben Rice, Giancarlo Stanton, Jasson Domínguez, and José Caballero — have dealt with or are dealing with minor injuries, but really the prime culprit has been a spike in strikeouts by the entire lineup. We therefore have to go back to the series finale against the Rangers for our At-Bat of the Week, courtesy of Trent Grisham.

We join Grisham with one out in the bottom of the sixth. The Yankees trail, 2-1, but have the bases loaded thanks to walks by Cody Bellinger and Ryan McMahon sandwiched around an Amed Rosario single and Jazz Chisholm Jr. pop out. It’s really only their second prime opportunity to score off of MacKenzie Gore, who had found his groove after yielding the pair of triples in the first. So far Grisham has flied out to left and singled on a pop up, Gore attacking him with four-seamers and sliders.

Gore got Grisham to swing over the top of a first pitch slider away the last AB, so he attempts the same tactic with the first pitch in this encounter.

Instead, Gore pulls this pitch badly and it ends up in the dirt for an easy take by Grisham. At no point was this pitch in the zone, meaning Grisham’s bat never leaves his shoulder.

After mis-executing the previous pitch, Gore switches gears to the fastball, but this time opts to go with the sinker instead of the four-seamer.

This is just rude from Gore, and highlights why it is so important for starting pitchers to possess more than one type of fastball. To this point, the only type of fastball that Grisham has seen from Gore has been the four-seamer. Grisham correctly diagnoses fastball out of Gore’s hand here and chooses a swing path based on the way he has seen the four-seamer move. However, rather than hold its plane vertically without much arm-side movement like the four-seamer, this sinker dives down and in. The result is an on-time swing from Grisham, but still a whiff over the top given how it is effectively impossible to distinguish sinker from four-seamer based on the ball’s spin.

After seeing Grisham whiff on the previous pitch by a fair margin, the logical course is for Gore to throw another one to the exact same location and see if he can induce the same outcome.

Gore leaves this sinker middle-middle, and Grisham does not miss. He stays back for an extra tick before firing a short-compact swing, driving the ball into the left-center field gap for a bases-clearing double to give the Yankees back the lead, knock Gore from the game, and spark an eventual six-run inning. I love how Grisham is able to make a mid-AB adjustment from one pitch to the next. All he needed was to see and swing over a single sinker, giving him enough information to doctor his swing path so that he can square it up on the very next pitch.

Here’s the full AB:

You might raise your eyebrows at a sub-.200 hitter batting leadoff. However, Grisham’s 15.5-percent walk rate places him in the 92nd percentile of qualified batters, making him one of the few on-base threats in the Yankees lineup. Much like Ben Rice last year, Grisham has been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball when you compare his results to his batted ball and discipline data. He places in 100th percentile in squared-up rate and 99th percentile in chase rate while sitting comfortably in the top-20 percent of the league in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate. The almost 50-point gap between his wOBA and expected wOBA is one of the largest deficits in the league, and his .184 BABIP is 75 points below his career average and is due for positive regression. As this AB showed, Grisham is one of the most adept Yankees hitters at making an in-game adjustment even one pitch to the next, which combined with the fact that Grisham’s under-the-hood metrics look quite similar to his career year last season gives me confidence that the results shouldn’t be far behind.

When the Mets sat at 10-21 as the calendar flipped from April to May, they were at rock bottom. 

New York was fresh off a 12-game losing streak, with the end of it overlapping with a 3-6 homestand against the Twins, Rockies, and Nationals that led to loud questions about manager Carlos Mendoza's job as the club boarded its flight for a nine-game road trip -- questions that were at least temporarily put to rest soon after by president of baseball operations David Stearns. 

The West Coast jaunt started out in promising fashion, with New York going 5-2 to open it. But two listless losses to the Diamondbacks capped the trip, with the Mets mustering just two runs total in those defeats.

While the Mets have played a tick above .500 since bottoming out at 10-21, they need to turn it on if they hope to make anything of this season.

At 15-25, they have the worst record in baseball, and -- aside from A.J. Ewing, who could offer a jolt but should absolutely not be viewed as a savior -- there doesn't seem to be help coming any time soon.

Francisco Lindoris out long-term, and could be a few days away from a follow-up MRI on his calf injury. If the news is good, his progression could be "relatively quick." But he's still weeks away from being on the radar.

Meanwhile, the injuries to Luis Robert Jr. and Jorge Polanco are lingering, and there is essentially no timetable for either one of them, meaning New York is without three of its five most important hitters. 

Beyond that, the Mets are probably exhausted, having flown to the West Coast three times already this season -- an absurd bit of schedule-making that boggles the mind.

In any event, to sum things up: the Mets have a pitching staff that is good enough for them to be a playoff team (their 170 runs allowed are sixth-best in the NL, and the five NL teams better than them are all in playoff position), and an offense that is bad enough for them to be a last place team (their 139 runs scored are tied with the Giants for the fewest in baseball).

Will the offense wake up before it's too late? And which players should New York rely on daily to try to get out of these offensive doldrums?

Given Lindor's absence (opening up shortstop for Bichette) and the promotion of Ewing, it can be argued that the Mets should trot out this configuration most days, and not revolve lineups around the handedness of the opposing pitcher -- as they were doing until recently against lefties while sitting Benge:

A.J. Ewing, CF
Juan Soto, LF
Bo Bichette, SS
Francisco Alvarez, C
Carson Benge, RF
Mark Vientos, 1B
Brett Baty, 3B
Marcus Semien, 2B
MJ Melendez, DH

It's fair to believe Ewing will not be the leadoff hitter from the jump, but he certainly profiles there in the long run given his bat-to-ball ability and penchant for working deep counts.

A much more difficult thing to answer is whether this unit will be good enough to lift New York out of the doldrums.

Soto's slump will end, Bichette's advanced stats show a likely rise to the mean is coming, Benge looks comfortable as he continues to get acclimated to the majors, and Alvarez has produced at right around an average level. But there are enormous questions about the other potential main lineup cogs.

As the Mets try to get their undermanned offense going and stack wins, here's what their schedule looks like for the rest of May:

3 games vs. Tigers
3 games vs. Yankees
4 games @ Nationals
3 games @ Marlins
3 games vs. Reds
3 games vs. Marlins

Given their current place in the standings, the Mets are in no position to look down their noses at any team in the majors. But accounting for their expectations before the season and their personnel, they're going to have to win most series they play against teams like the Nats and Marlins if they hope to get back in it. As far as the Reds, they're reeling, having lost eight of their last 10 games and sporting a -33 run differential that suggests their 22-19 record is a mirage.

The Tigers are also flailing a bit, sitting at 19-22 and currently without Tarik Skubal.

The Yankees, despite their four-game losing streak, are one of the most well-rounded teams in baseball. They'll be a huge challenge, but perhaps the atmosphere at Citi Field helps ignite something in the Mets.

By going 15-25 to open the season, the Mets have given themselves little margin for error the rest of the way. They also have a ton of work to do if they want to prove that the first 40 games were an aberration.

In order to have a realistic chance to reach the postseason, the Mets will likely have to go about 71-51 between now and the end of the season, which would mean finishing with a record of 86-76. Over the last three seasons, the final NL Wild Card has finished with between 83 and 89 wins, so we split the difference for this prognostication.

The season won't be over if the Mets don't make serious progress between now and the end of May, but they'll certainly be closer to becoming a seller at the trade deadline than a team that stands pat or buys -- a situation that would've been unthinkable six weeks ago.

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The Padres head to Milwaukee for a possible postseason preview series. Milwaukee has won four straight, including a weekend sweep of the Yankees. San Diego leads the West despite struggling on offense.

The pitching matchup promises to give everyone a spark at the plate. That’s why my Padres vs. Brewers predictions and MLB picks look for San Diego to get the road win on Tuesday, May 12.

Who will win Padres vs Brewers today: Padres moneyline (+116)

A division leader with a better record at underdog prices is a surprise, even on the road. The San Diego Padres haven’t been hitting, but they should be able to get things going against starter Brandon Sproat, a rookie who is winless in MLB. 

Sproat walks 5.3 batters per nine and allows 2.1 homers. All of his pitches rank in baseball’s bottom quartile.

The Milwaukee Brewers will face Matt Waldron, who has struggled with a 7.71 ERA this season, but the Padres may have found a solution. He pitched much better after an opener in his last outing and San Diego may try that again.

COVERS INTEL:For his career, Waldron has allowed a .971 OPS and 148 OPS+ in the first inning. He’s allowed 11 first-inning home runs, more than any other inning. 

Padres vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+100)

The Padres have had trouble at the plate, however. In their series split with St. Louis over the weekend, San Diego managed just 14 hits—a franchise record low for a four-game series.

Like the Padres, the Brewers have been below league average at the plate all season and even worse lately. Milwaukee has a .625 OPS with 88 OPS+ over the last week. The Padres are .590 and 76 over the last seven days.

While the starters are shaky for both teams, Milwaukee and San Diego have outstanding bullpens, led by the Brewers’ Aaron Ashby and the Padres’ Mason Miller.

Padres vs Brewers odds

• Moneyline: San Diego +117 | Milwaukee -122
• Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-178) | Milwaukee -1.5 (+170)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-108) | Under 8.5 (+104)

Padres vs Brewers trend

The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+8.25 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Brewers.

How to watch Padres vs Brewers and game info

Padres vs Brewers latest injuries

Padres vs Brewers weather

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The top two teams in baseball meet for three games when the Chicago Cubs kick off a series against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park tonight.

Chicago has hit a two-game mini-slump after winning 10 straight, but my Cubs vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks looks for that to end with a win over Atlanta on Tuesday, May 12.

Who will win Cubs vs Braves today: Cubs moneyline (+108)

The Chicago Cubs have won 20 of their last 25. However, they were shut out the last two games.

Texas stopped Chicago with starters featuring overpowering fastballs. Atlanta Braves right-hander Grant Holmes throws a fastball 2 mph slower and with 100 fewer revolutions in spin, which should spark an offense that was scoring six a game.

Holmes is also getting squared up consistently, ranking in the 31st percentile in hard-hit rate.

The Braves return from the West Coast. It’s their first home game since losing legendary owner Ted Turner and manager Bobby Cox. An emotional crowd might give Atlanta an early boost, but it will be a tired Braves team by the end of the night.

COVERS INTEL: Holmes actually throws his slider more than his fastball, but that’s also slower than the two Rangers starters that shut down Chicago. The Cubs have two players in MLB’s Top 50 batters against the slider and one in the Top 50 vs. the fastball.

Cubs vs Braves Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+100)

While the Cubs’ back-to-back blankings got more attention, the Braves have actually hit worse than Chicago over the last week. Both have been below league average: .606 OPS and 82 OPS+ for Atlanta, .644 and 94 for Chicago.

Holmes is far from the only pitcher who doesn’t throw as fast as Jacob deGrom, and his 94-mph heater has done well this season. The Braves have won four of his last five starts, and he’s been outstanding at getting batters to chase and swing & miss so far this season.

Chicago starter Colin Rea is 4-1 and has an even better chase rate. He’s been confounding batters with his offspeed stuff, and it should be enough to help keep this final below the somewhat lofty total.

Cubs vs Braves odds

• Moneyline: Cubs +102 | Braves -122
• Run line: Cubs -1.5 (+157) | Braves +1.5 (-191)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-112) | Under 8.5 (-108)

Cubs vs Braves trend

The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 games (+9.05 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Braves.

How to watch Cubs vs Braves and game info

Cubs vs Braves latest injuries

Cubs vs Braves weather

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What baseball god has it out for Sean Murphy?

After a long and windy road that includes his season-ending hip surgery and rehab after, Murph has played four (4) games since returning on May 4. The initial X-rays were fine per Mark Bowman, and Walt Weiss seemed optimistic. But the the catcher’s interference play in the Dodgers series finale on Sunday is officially a fractured left middle finger for #12. He has been placed on the 10-day IL backdated to yesterday, May 12. Absolutely brutal.

And exactly like the last time Murphy went down, the veteran Sandy León will step up to back up Drake Baldwin. Confused and wondering why he was a free agent to begin with? You’re not misremembering – León was with the team on a minor league contract and played ten games with the Gwinnett Stripers this season. However, the Braves granted him his release per his request on April 22 to pursue an opportunity with the Saraperos de Saltillo of the Mexican League. Now that we are Heim-less, the Braves have gone with the veteran and beloved presence in León instead of the current Triple-A options of Chadwick Tromp and Jaír Camargo.

Outfielder José Azócar also knows what the revolving door feels like, and here he is back with the major league club. To recap briefly, he was DFA’d May 6, elected free agency May 8, and signed his new minor league contract yesterday, May 11. He’ll occupy the fourth OF / pinch runner role. And as many predicted with the return of Ha-Seong Kim, Jim Jarvis (of MLB’s play of the week fame) has been optioned down to Triple-A in a corresponding move.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have acquired outfielder Alek Thomas from the division-rival Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for teenage prospect Jose Requena.

The teams announced the deal on Tuesday, May 12, after the D'backs had designated Thomas for assignment during the weekend to create a roster spot for top prospect Ryan Waldschmidt.

Thomas, 26, is a skilled defensive center fielder, but he's not been very productive at the plate over his five seasons in Arizona, producing a career OPS of .634.

The Dodgers currently have Andy Pages as their everyday center fielder, though Thomas could provide additional depth and a potential platoon partner against tough right-handed pitchers.

Add another $1.45 million to the Dodgers’ payroll with the acquisition of CF Alek Thomas https://t.co/gSMoTKoZGb

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) May 12, 2026

The Dodgers have yet to announce an official roster move to add Thomas, who does have minor-league options remaining and could be sent to Triple-A Oklahoma City to begin his tenure with the team.

Recently, Eric Stephen made the following observation on BlueSky, referencing the extinct dodo bird in relation to MLB physical tickets.

I was going to respond, but then I realized I could channel my inner Brennan Lee Mulligan and tie together a couple of stories I had been meaning to write about, as I stumbled upon all this information across various threads, which I now combine into a single article of moderate success.

In other words, if I had to go down a rabbit hole on a train of thought, I now share what I found with everyone.

Eric Stephen is not alone in missing physical tickets. With the rise of smartphones and the MLB Ballpark app, the march to an all-digital baseball experience seemed inevitable. Rebecca Tauber of The Athletic recently covered how the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated this trend.

Digital tickets became increasingly common in the 2010s, with the rise of smartphones. The convenience of a digital ticket was clear; no need to worry about losing a physical ticket. Security concerns persist — digital ticket theft remains a risk — but digital ticket holders typically have stronger buyer protections, especially in the resale market. If stadiums were already heading in an all-digital direction, the pandemic hastened that change. Like restaurant menus and MetroCards, the world went digital and never returned.

But the desire for paper tickets persists, and not just among fans without smartphones.

While one can use the MLB Ballpark app as a digital record of attendance and travel, there is something to be said for having a physical reminder of an outing. On a surface level, it would seem an apt analogy for MLB physical tickets and the now-extinct Dodo, but ultimately, looks can be deceiving.

Pity the Dodo

In order to understand the true comparison, we must first detour to examine the poor flightless extinct bird. The Dodo was killed off by a combination of overhunting by the Dutch in the 17th century. The Dodo did not stand much chance in hindsight, as the birds were unused to humans, and the invasive animals the Dutch brought with them, like cats and dogs, also drove the bird to extinction.

Perhaps it was this shortsighted mindset that led the Dodgers to try to deny longtime season-ticket holder Errol Segal his physical season tickets earlier this year. Why honor a relationship where there is a quick buck to be made?

Alex Rozier and Robert Westermann of KNBC Channel 4 reported on the story in early April about how the Dodgers initially refused to print Mr. Segal’s season tickets. In the initial report, Mr. Segal eventually went to the ticket office to receive four physical tickets and had previously paid a surcharge for his season tickets because he lacked both the ability and the equipment to handle purely digital tickets.

It’s not that the Dodgers couldn’t print his tickets; it’s that they wouldn’t.

Two weeks later, after public outcry, KNBC reported that the Dodgers relented.

The team had initially offered to buy the tickets back from him, but Segal refused….

After his story was seen by millions online, the Dodgers changed their minds.

“It makes me so happy when I hand them the ticket and the smile on their face,” Segal said. “There’s nothing like an original paper ticket.”

The faithful Dodger fan now looks forward to cheering his favorite team on in person.

What Mr. Segal failed to realize was that physical tickets are now essentially a luxury item and another source of revenue for teams. So if the Dodo is the wrong bird, and you have taken notice of the title, you might be asking yourself a very obvious question.

What is an ortolan?

An ortolan is a small, endangered European songbird that, like the dodo, eaten by man. Where one can understand that 17th-century sailors might not have been fully aware of or understand conservation efforts, modern chefs cannot claim the same excuse.

Modernly, ortolans are usually drowned in brandy, which serves as both a method of dispatch and a marinade, and is eaten whole by diners minus the beak.

It is generally illegal to eat these birds, as morally dubious chefs used to blind them, tricking them into thinking it was perpetually nighttime, allowing them to gorge themselves to double or triple in size. Traditionally, one wore a napkin over one’s face when eating ortolan to capture all the flavors and hide one’s shame from God.

These birds have been featured as a minor plot point on shows like Billions, Succession, and Hannibal. Accordingly, consumption of these birds has led to an entire mythology surrounding their consumption as a status symbol for the “morally flexible,” ultra-wealthy, which is a tautology if ever there was one.

Even with the consumption of the palm-sized bird being outlawed since 1999, estimates suggest that about 30,000 ortolans are consumed in France annually, with each bird sold for around 150 euros. Whether these birds are doomed to extinction is an open question outside the scope of this essay.

Ortolans and Paper Tickets

For those straining to see the connection, paper tickets were once given freely and were not status symbols or sources of extra revenue for teams, unlike now. However, tnlike the songbird, no one will generally judge a person for obtaining a paper ticket.

There is even a boutique market for creating commemorative paper tickets. Once again, Ms. Tauber:

In the collectibles world, the market for paper tickets pales in comparison to items like sports cards or game-used equipment. Of course, pieces of history fetch a price, like a 1947 ticket stub from Jackie Robinson’s debut, which sold in 2022 for $480,000, and a 1984 ticket from Michael Jordan’s debut, which sold that same year for $468,000.

Some stadiums will still print tickets on demand; sometimes, fans can pay extra for printed tickets for special games. But many don’t print tickets purchased online for everyday games, disappointing fans who want a built-in souvenir and driving up the cost for the rare stub from a noteworthy occasion. Paper tickets from Konnor Griffin’s Pittsburgh Pirates debut on April 3 against the Baltimore Orioles (only available at the PNC Park box office for an additional fee), for example, are currently selling for hundreds of dollars in good condition.

And as interest in paper tickets has persisted — possibly more for nostalgia-fuelled souvenir collecting than actual utility — some artists and businesses are trying to fill the gap. Entire souvenir companies specialize in printing commemorative ephemera, including fake versions of paper tickets to a concert or baseball game a fan might have attended, as well as digital tickets. One website, The Creative Lane, sells custom commemorative tickets for $8.99 to $10.99.

(Emphasis added.)

I can attest to this highlighted fact in my travels. I bought commemorative tickets that either used the honor system of where I was sitting in Arizona (Walker Buehler’s near no-hitter in 2021) and San Francisco (NLDS Game 2) or insisted on accuracy by checking my MLB Ballpark app before selling me a ticket (Arlington 2025).

For Ohtani’s 50/50 game, the Marlins were just selling tickets off a reel with no rhyme or reason for seats in the upper deck, which was closed off during the game, and an area where no one sat. And yet I bought two, selling one for cost to another fan I ran into at the hotel in Miami who could not wait in the lengthy, impromptu line for a souvenir physical ticket.

While the Giants sold an official commemorative ticket, I had to get creative for Game 7’s ticket, using an eBay vendor to source a facsimile.

Considering how hard the Blue Jays have been leaning into “AL Pennant” winning promotions, one would imagine that had Game 7 gone the other way, the amount of merchandise would be enough to float the finances of the province of Ontario.

At the end of the day, one should not have to go through as many hoops to eat an endangered songbird to get a paper ticket, as one act is decadent and monstrous, and the other is the collection of a bygone memento to indicate how one enjoys their fandom.

I will leave it to you, dear reader, to identify which topic is which.

After taking game one of the weekend series in Miami and getting back to within 1 game of .500, the Nationals dropped the final two games to lose the series to the Marlins, who stormed ahead in the 8th inning of both Saturday and Sunday’s games. They didn’t play badly in either of the losses, but didn’t do enough to secure the series win, and now they will head to Cincinnati to take on the 22-19 Reds.

While the Reds are 3 games above .500, they are also tied for last place in the NL Central, which is looking extremely competitive in 2026. Offensively, the Reds are receiving big years from their star shortstop Elly De La Cruz and rookie first baseman Sal Stewart, but outside of those two, it has been a struggle, as their team’s wRC+ of 90 is 4th worst in MLB. One player you may not know is a Red and who the Nats will face off with this week is Nathaniel Lowe, who is one of the only other productive bats in the Reds lineup with a 139 wRC+ in 29 games.

On the pitching side, the Reds have a rotation filled with great young talent, such as Hunter Greene (who is currently on the IL), Chase Burns, and Rhett Lowder, but they rank 25th in baseball in starting pitching ERA regardless, with regression from starters Brady Singer and Andrew Abbott hitting them hard. The bullpen has not been much better either, ranking 22nd in bullpen ERA. Despite being 3 games over .500, the numbers show the Reds are a flawed team currently, and one the Nats could surprise in this three-game set.

Game One – Tuesday 6:40 PM EST

WSH: RHP Miles Mikolas (1-3, 7.44 ERA)

CIN: Brady Singer (2-2, 5.63 ERA)

Mikolas hasn’t quite eaten innings at the rate he was expected to this season, going at least 5 innings only twice, but the results have been much improved since his disaster start in the home opener against the Dodgers, having not allowed more than 3 runs in a start since. He’ll now face a struggling Reds lineup located in a dangerous hitters’ park.

Singer has played the innings-eater role in the Reds’ rotation, but has struggled to limit damage at the same time, giving up 4 runs in his last two starts against the Pirates and Cubs. The home run ball has plagued him in 2026, and the Nats will look to hit a few of their own off him tonight.

Game Two – Wednesday 6:40 PM EST

WSH: RHP Jake Irvin (1-4, 5.22 ERA)

CIN: LHP Nick Lodolo (0-1, 6.75 ERA)

Irvin logged yet another start where he went at least 5 innings last time out against the Twins, but did get tagged for 4 runs in the process. If Irvin can keep the ball on the ground and limit walks, he should have success against the struggling Reds’ lineup.

Lodolo made his return to the Reds rotation from injury last time out against the Astros and looked fine, going 5 1/3 innings but allowing 4 runs. Lodolo had a breakout 2025 campaign, with a 3.33 ERA in 29 starts, and will look to get back to that level here in 2026.

Game Three – Thursday 12:40 PM EST

WSH: LHP Foster Griffin (4-1, 2.12 ERA)

CIN: RHP Chase Burns (4-1, 2.11 ERA)

Foster Griffin continued his run of excellence with 7 innings of 1 run ball against the Marlins in their game one win Friday night, striking out 9 hitters in the process. He’s now down to a 2.12 ERA on the year, and has gone 20 innings of 1 run ball in his last 3 starts.

The 2nd overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft, Burns has electric stuff and has looked very sharp to begin 2026, throwing 6 innings of 1 run ball in his last start against the Astros. He has allowed 2 or fewer runs in all but one start this season, so the Nats may need to get scrappy at the plate and on the bases to manufacture some runs.

As the Colorado Rockies embark in earnest on their rebuild, attention turns to what’s happening in their farm system, especially with the pitching staff. One of those players is RHP JB Middleton (No. 7 PuRP), currently on the Fresno Grizzlies.

Actually, I’ll turn it over to Purple Row’s prospects expert Jeff Aberle:

Middleton became the highest-ever drafted pitcher for Southern Mississippi when the Rockies took him 45th overall in the 2025 draft (Middleton was 41st in MLB Pipeline’s draft rankings), signing the now 22-year-old right-hander to a $2.072 million bonus that was $100k under slot. Middleton doesn’t possess ideal size for a modern day hurler (he’s only 6’0”), but his repertoire includes a good three pitch mix (fastball, slider, change) that he throws for strikes. He throws from a three-quarter slot with a quick arm action, a mid-90s fastball, a late-breaking slider that gets whiffs, and a good change-up to keep lefties honest.

Although he sent on the seven-day IL last week, prior to his injury in early May, Middleton had a 4.95 ERA (1.70 WHIP) over 20.0 IP. That number includes 18 strikeouts, 3 home runs, and 13 walks.

That said, he was excellent on April 11, 2025, when he strike out five and allowed only one run over five innings.

Purple Row caught up with Middleton at spring training as he recounted what he’d worked on over the offseason and what he antici`pated in 2026 as he was on the eve of making his debut as a professional baseball player.

Middleton said he had some takeaways from his final year of college baseball — that would be his 2025 with the Eagles when he tallied 105.1 IP with a 2.31 ERA that included 122 strikeouts and just 25 walks.

“Just being yourself, having confidence, learning how to pitch, and going out there and winning games for your team,” Middleton said.

His offseason focus was the natural next step: pitching development.

To be specific, according to Middleton, “just pitch shapes, trying to dial everything in and be consistent in the zone and just efficiency pitching — throwing strikes.”

The focus, too, has been on his slider, a pitch that Middleton only threw as some 10% of his pitches.

“I think we’ll probably use it a little more this year,” he said.

Tied to that has been his early work with the Rockies new pitching staff. “It’s kind of been great, everybody on the new staff,” Middleton said. “It’s amazing to think everybody’s on the same page and just go out there and fill up the zone and put guys away.”

He’s also eager to embark on his professional career.

“It’s exciting,” he said of making his debut. “You know, it’s an honor to get to be able to do this and go out there and have fun.”

And his goals for 2026?

“Just stay healthy, go out there, and try to be the best version of me I can, and just have fun.”

Weekly Pebble Report: May 5th-11th

Triple-A: Albuquerque Isotopes (5-1, 23-16 Overall)

The Albuquerque Isotopes continue to play a solid brand of winning baseball, taking five of six against the Sugar Land Space Cowboys (Houston Astros), and maintain a two-game lead atop the Pacific Coast League standings.  Albuquerque won a road series at Sugar Land for the first time, and it was also their first series win on the road against an Astros affiliate since taking three of four in Oklahoma City back in 2012. The Isotopes offense continues to produce as they launched 10 home runs in the series, their most ever in Sugar Land.

⬆️ Stock Up:Carrigg-ing On

Picking up where he left off as the reigning PCL Player of the Week, Cole Carrigg (No. 4 PuRP), enjoyed another fantastic series in Sugar Land. Over five games, he slashed .320/.370/.600, going 8-for-25 with two home runs, a double, four RBI, and six runs scored. Additionally, he added another five stolen bases, bringing him to a season total of 24 bags. Carrigg also extended his hitting streak to 18 games, the longest active among all players in affiliated pro ball.  During that stretch, he is slashing .452/.506/.685 with four doubles, two triples, three homers, 18 RBI, and 14 steals. He has also reached base in 30-straight games now.

⬆️ Stock Up:I’ll have the Beef Welinton

Bullpen reinforcements are sometimes difficult to predict in Albuquerque, but Welinton Herrera (No. 17 PuRP) has continued to impress working out of the pen in his first year of Triple-A ball. The lefty made appearances in the Sugar Land series, working two innings each time. In those four innings, he allowed just one hit while striking out four against just one walk. In his 16.1 innings of work on the year, Herrera owns a 4.41 ERA, allowing runs in just four of his 12 outings while tallying 24 strikeouts against 13 walks. The Rockies need more left-handed relievers, and the prospects of the 22-year-old are getting brighter and brighter.

Upcoming:

The Isotopes are back home to host the Oklahoma City Comets (Los Angeles Dodgers). Notably, utility player Kiké Hernandez and right-handed pitcher Brusdar Graterol are beginning rehab assignments with the Comets en route to returning to the Dodgers.

Double-A: Hartford Yard Goats (5-1, 16-16 Overall)

A much-needed winning series against the Binghamton Rumble Ponies (New York Mets) helped to lift the Yard Goats up to .500 and back in the Eastern League fight. Hartford won three of their first four and then swept a Sunday double header.

⬆️ Stock Up:Roc’s Feather

Roc Riggio (no. 14 PuRP) has really hit his stride over the last few series and turned in an excellent performance against the Rumble Ponies. Riggio went 10-for-20 during the series with three doubles, three home runs, and six RBI. He had two three-hit games and had multiple hits in three of the five games he appeared in.

⬆️ Stock Up:Call of Juarez

Right-handed pitcher Victor Juarez has quietly been one of Hartford’s best relievers. Operating mostly in late innings, Juarez has a 1.69 ERA in 12 appearances with five saves. Juarez made three relief appearances against the Rumble Ponies. In 4.1 innings he gave up just one unearned run and one hit while striking out five batters with no walks.

Upcoming:

The Yard Goats look to keep the wins coming against the Portland Sea Dogs (Boston Red Sox) at home this week in a series that includes their first Chivos de Hartford night of 2026.

High-A: Spokane Indians (4-2, 13-20 Overall)

The Spokane Indians are still figuring things out. Pitching—expected to be a strength—has struggled somewhat while the offense has had difficulty finding their footing in the Pacific Northwest. However, the Indians made some great progress this week. They finally won their first six-game series of the season with four wins against the Tri-City Dust Devils (Los Angeles Angels)

⬆️ Stock Up:Cox of the Rox

Jackson Cox (no. 16 PuRP) continues to show he’s recovered from his Tommy John surgery and is able to thrive with the limiters off by showing what made him worth a second round pick back in 2022. Cox made the longest start of his professional career against Tri-City and looked good doing it. Through seven complete innings he gave up just one earned run on one hit—a solo home run—while striking out nine batters for the second time this season.

⬆️ Stock Up:Roynier. Royfar. Roywherever you are.

Second baseman Roynier Hernandez went 7-for-19 against the Dust Devils with three RBIs, two walks, and just one strikeout. His best performance came on Wednesday when he went 3-for-4 and hit a walk-off RBI single to deliver the Indians victory.

Upcoming:

The Indians are off to Oregon to face the Hillsboro Hops (Arizona Diamondbacks). The Hops currently sitting at the bottom of the Northwest League standings.

Low-A: Fresno Grizzlies (4-2, 19-14 Overall)

The Fresno Grizzlies continue to excel as the season rolls on with a record over .500 and a fantastic series against the reigning champion San Jose Giants (San Francisco Giants). The Grizzlies took four games of the six and scored at least eight runs in each win. The pitching has been quietly solid, but it’s the offense that is surging. Many players in the Grizzlies lineup are hitting with an OPS close to or above .900 so far this season.

⬆️ Stock Up:The Return of the Roldy Brito Award for Weekly Excellence at Being Roldy Brito

The ever-exciting Roldy Brito (no. 11 PuRP) put together another strong week, going 10-for-28 with a double, a home run, four RBIs, two stolen bases, and two walks to only one strikeout. Brito kicked off the week going 4-for-5 against the Giants and had at least one hit in every other game during the series.

⬆️ Stock Up:Cam you dig it?

Wake Forest outfielder Cam Nelson was one of the more intriguing picks the Rockies made in the 2025 draft. Only a sophomore and having missed playing time due to injury, the Rockies drafted Nelson in the fifth round and paid above slot value to get him into the organization. Nelson’s bat is starting to come around, but where he has really shined is displaying an ability to get on base. With a .403 on-base percentage he has walked a whopping 26 times. He also has impressive speed with four triples and nine stolen bases.

Nelson had one of his best series of his young career against the Giants, going 9-for-26 with two doubles, a triple, a stolen base, and four RBIs.

Upcoming:

The Grizzlies head home to host the Visalia Rawhide (Arizona Diamondbacks) with hopes to continue their winning ways.

Arizona Complex League: ACL Rockies (4-1, 6-1 Overall)

The ACL Rockies were dominant in their first full week of Complex League play, scoring at least five runs in all of their wins. The only loss they suffered is against the ACL Royals (Kansas City Royals) with whom they are tied for the best record in the Complex League.

⬆️ Stock Up:Kamuel is smokin’

18-year-old infielder Kamuel Villar is one of two members of the Rockies’ 2025 international class to make it stateside for the Arizona Complex League this season. In his last five games, playing a mix of second and third base, Villar went 6-for-12 with a double, a triple, five RBIs, five walks to two strikeouts, and two stolen bases.

⬇️ Stock Down:Penalized

20-year-old right-handed pitcher Eliezer Pena—a member of the 2023 international class—made two starts for the ACL Rockies this week. While he did strike out nine batters over 6.1 total innings, he also gave up nine runs (eight earned) on 13 hits and six walks.

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The Phillies and Red Sox have a lot in common this season. After making the playoffs in 2025, both teams made offseason moves that weren’t embraced by many fans. And both got off to poor starts that resulted in an early season firing of the manager.

Another thing the teams have in common: They’ve gotten disappointing play from their All-Star shortstops. Trea Turner is off to a poor start this season and has been worth negative WAR (yet he’s somehow avoided receiving too much scrutiny) while his counterpart on the Red Sox isn’t faring much – if any – better.

That’s nothing new for Trevor Story since his career with the Red Sox has mostly been a disappointment.

He was a two-time All-Star and Silver Slugger winner for the Colorado Rockies, and upon hitting free agency, cashed in with a six-year/$140 million deal with the Sox. Spending big money on Rockies players has always been a “buyer beware” situation, because it’s often unclear how much their numbers have been aided by the thin air of Colorado.

Story’s numbers indeed took a significant downturn upon leaving the Rockies, but a large part of that was due to poor health. In his first three seasons in Boston, Story was limited to 163 games. In 2025, he finally managed to stay healthy for a full season, and while his offense wasn’t what it was in Colorado, he hit 25 home runs.

Apparently, there was a lack of consensus among Red Sox management whether Story’s upturn was sustainable. Manager Alex Cora believed in Story, and continued to bat him high in the lineup, while people in the front office thought the underlying metrics showed that a drop off was coming.

While that was far from the only reason Cora was fired, it certainly didn’t help his case when Story got off to a poor start to the season.

Story has been dropped from second in the lineup, and now typically finds himself batting fifth. But the change in positions hasn’t helped his offense turnaround. After a bad month of April, Story has been even worse in May, putting up a .478 OPS and he hasn’t hit a home run since April 15th.

Pennant year song battle

Nobody can stop It’s a Mistake! The Men at Work tune defeated I Get Around by 2Pac to hold the title for another week.

This week’s contender is also from 1983. With both the Phillies and Red Sox in similar situations at the moment, I figured You and I by Eddie Rabbitt and Crystal Gale would be appropriate:

If the song sounds familiar to younger readers, that’s because it was covered on both Glee and 30 Rock.

Vote for the winner now:

Non-Phillies thought

It is truly amazing how quickly the Sixers and Flyers squandered all the goodwill from their first-round playoff victories. You can partly excuse the Flyers who were just happy to be there and were clearly outmatched by the Carolina Hurricanes. But the Sixers get no excuses, as they’re a veteran team whose performance in game three was awful, while game four was one of the most shameful rollovers in team history.

I figured GM Daryl Morey and coach Nick Nurse were safe after beating the Celtics in round one, but seeing the Sixers get embarrassed like that might prompt changes. Then again, I don’t think anything will improve too dramatically as long as Josh Harris owns the team.

Additional thought about the series

The scheduled pitchers for Thursday’s game are Jesus Luzardo and Ranger Suarez, which should get some fans feeling a certain way. This past offseason, with Suarez a free agent, and Luzardo hitting the market the year after, it seemed unlikely that the Phillies would be able to retain both of them.

They chose Luzardo, signing him to a lucrative extension shortly after Suarez left for the Red Sox as a free agent.

The early results are not good for the Phillies. Luzardo can apparently be only very good or very bad in any given start, and he’s had more bad outings than good ones this season. Meanwhile, Ranger has a 2.77 ERA, although he’s also had his share of inconsistency. Oddly, in every one of his starts, he’s either given up zero or four runs.

It also doesn’t help that the rookie who replaced Ranger in the rotation, Andrew Painter, has also been bad lately. But if you want to avoid a team getting too old – as many fans claim they want – then at some point, you have to replace veterans with younger players, and often times, you’re going to have to deal with some growing pains.

It’s obviously too early to cast final judgement on the Phillies decision, but I do suggest Phillies fans not forget that Suarez has yet to maintain good health and effectiveness over a full season. I appreciated the guy, but I won’t miss the annual reports about his back bothering him.

Suarez is also two years older than Luzardo, and there are many who believe his stuff will not age well.

For the Phillies sake, let’s hope that on Thursday, Ranger has one of those four-run outings, while Luzardo can be in “very good” mode.

I’m a little late to this project, but let’s see the standout performers from the first month(plus) of Guardians’ minor league baseball action:

Triple-A Columbus – Hitters:
Cooper Ingle, C – 223 wRC+, 19.5/28.6 K/BB%, .315 ISO
Angel Genao, SS – 157 wRC+, 17.2/6.9%, .296 ISO
Stuart Fairchild, OF – 154 wRC+, 19.4/15.8%, .202 ISO
Kody Huff, C – 151 wRC+, 17.7/13.6 K/BB%, .224 ISO
Maick Collado, 1B/3B – 150 wRC+, 8.1/2.7 K/BB%, .206 ISO
Kahlil Watson, OF – 141 wRC+, 26.7/20.6 K/BB%, .265 ISO
Juan Brito – 138 wRC+, 15.6/13.54 K/BB%, .250 ISO

Analysis: There are some pretty impressive hitters in this bunch. Primarily, I wonder how long the team will wait to get Ingle and Watson their shots at impacting the major league roster. Watson still whiffs a bit too much, but every other number looks sustainable. Genao probably doesn’t get a shot until next season, but all his numbers so far look insane – EXCEPT for that near 60% groundball rate. If he starts lifting the ball just a little more – watch out. He’s still likely the organization’s shortstop of the future… or an amazing trade chip… Collado’s numbers are not sustainable, but it is fun he has had such a great first 37 plate appearances in Columbus. Kody Huff might be the most interesting name to watch here, as he seems to have made some significant hitting adjustments, and his catching gets rave reviews. Fairchild may get a shot to replace Angel Martinez at some point if Angel doesn’t stop chasing everything out of the zone he gets thrown. Brito has yet to get any outfield reps this year, however, so he is looking like an injury-replacement only so far. He doesn’t need to see second base again, but his bat still looks like it could be an asset in the bigs if given time.

Pitchers:
Austin Peterson, RHP – 1.69 ERA, 4.30 FIP, 8.44/2.53 K/BB/9
Rorik Maltrud, RHP – 2.08 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 6.75/2.60 K/BB/9

Analysis: Peterson has seen the usual walk tic-up of a pitcher going to Triple-A, but I’d expect him to lower that rate and show himself to be a competent fifth starter, with a solid groundball rate. Maltrud may become a solid long reliever, but I’m not sure that low of a K-rate is able to make him a major league option. Side note – Codi Heuer has a decent ERA that does not look at all sustainable, and should be the first roster spot to give way if the team wants to add a player at some point. Also, Daniel Espino has had a rough couple weeks, but I believe in that kid to figure it out. Still striking out 11 batters per 9.

Double-A Akron – Hitters:
Ralphy Velazquez, 1B/LF – 146 wRC+, 16.9/14.1 K/BB/9, .192 ISO
Jake Fox, OF – 144 wRC+, 18.5/22.2 K/BB/9, .067 ISO

Analysis: Velazquez has yet to consistently tap into his power. When that happens, he will quickly make his way to Columbus. Fox’s wRC+ is mostly a mirage, but he has fringe major league hitter potential, still.

Pitchers:
Justin Campbell, RHP – 0.00 ERA, 1.96 FIP, 11.25/2.25 K/BB/9.
Carter Rustad, RHP – 1.00 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 11/3.5 K/BB/9.
Jack Jasiak, RHP – 3.32 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 11.37/2.37 K/BB/9.
Caden Favors, RHP – 3.52 ERA, 5.63 FIP, 8.8/4.5 K/BB/9.
Khal Stephen, RHP – 3.82 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 10.09/4.64 K/BB/9.

Analysis: Cheating a little by putting Campbell here, who has had just one start at Akron, but he is the most exciting arm of this bunch. I don’t know what his innings limits look like, but he could force the issue for a promotion sooner rather than later if he keeps this up. Rustad and Jasiak look like usable relievers who deserve a Columbus promotion at some point. Favors and Stephen have both struggled with walks. I would guess Stephen gets the walks under control in the month to come and makes his way to Triple-A, but things are much less sure for Favors.

High-A Lake County – Hitters:
Bennett Thompson, C – 182 wRC+, 21.9/30.2 K/BB%, .231 ISO
Aaron Walton, OF – 147 wRC+, 25/9 K/BB%, .245 ISO
Dean Curley, SS – 140 wRC+, 26.8/27.6 K/BB%, .153 ISO
Jaison Chourio, OF – 139 wRC+, 17.6/17.6 K/BB%, .159 ISO
Ryan Cesarini, OF – 123 wRC+, 21.6/7.2, .267 ISO

Analysis: A team lacking power but with lots of contact and plate discipline. I am not sure how Thompson’s defense at catcher will hold up as he advances, but he can hit. Walton’s early returns have been great; just a question if he can keep the whiff low enough and the power high enough to maintain his value as a hitter. Chourio’s injury is unfortunate, but he was displaying the “average ML hitter” potential folks saw for him. Curley’s numbers will be determined on if he can reduce his K-rate and impact the ball at a high enough rate to help when his walk rate declines. Cesarini might be a fourth outfielder someday.

Pitchers:
Cam Schuelke, RHP – 0.63 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 7.53/3.14 K/BB/9.
Franklin Gomez, LHP – 1.95 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 10.41/2.60 K/BB/9.
Izaak Martinez, LHP – 2.51 ERA, 4.59 FIP, 9.42/3.14 K/BB/9.
Braylon Doughty, RHP – 3.44 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 9.82/2.45 K/BB/9.

Analysis:
Gomez and Doughty are very exciting starting pitching prospects. I’d like to see both brought up to Akron in June or July, at the latest, and I think BOTH have strong front of the rotation potential. Schuelke could be a fringe major league reliever with his unusual delivery, and Martinez should get a shot as a major league lefty out of the pen at some point.

Low-A Hill City – Hitters:
Anthony Martinez, 1B – 165 wRC+, 16.5/19.6 K/BB%, .250 ISO
Robert Arias, OF – 148 wRC+, 15.7/18.1 K/BB%, .155 ISO
Jose Pirela, OF – 148 wRC+, 26.7/11.5 K/BB%, .205 ISO
Luis De La Cruz, 1B/3B – 135 wRC+, 28.6/14.3 K/BB%, .083 ISO
Juneiker Caceres, OF – 121 wRC+, 10.7/14.3 K/BB%, .140 ISO

Analysis: Martinez and Arias are such exciting hitters, folks. Wow. Pay attention for their progress this season. Pirela and De La Cruz have some reasons to doubt their output so far, but, hey, better to hit than not to hit. Caceres is dealing with an injury, but I expect big things from him and from Dauri Fernandez in the months ahead.

Pitchers:
Luke Fernandez, RHP – 1.83 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 10.07/5.49 K/BB/9.
Harrison Bodendorf, LHP – 2.01 ERA, 1.85 FIP, 12.49/2.22 K/BB/9.
Nelson Keljo, LHP – 2.08 ERA, 3.28 FIP, 12.46/2.60 K/BB/9.
Jervis Alfaro, RHP – 3.13 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 12.91/3.13 K/BB/9.
Aidan Major, LHP – 3.72 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 8.84/4.66 K/BB/9.

Analysis: Some strong pitching in Hill City. Bodendorg, Keljo and Major are the starters in this group, and Bodendorf will be especially knocking on the door for Lake County soon. Bodendorf is 6’5 and Keljo is 6’4, so that’s some exciting physical talent to dream on. Fernandez’s numbers seem somewhat unsustainable, but Alfaro is gonna head to Lake County sooner rather than later.

Overall, it’s been an encouraging beginning for the Guardians’ farm system. Let’s hope this solid development work continues and even improves in the months ahead. Let us know which prospect you’re most excited about from the list above in the comments below.

The Cincinnati Reds have a leadoff problem, and they’re well aware of it.

As TJ Friedl struggled through one of the worst stretches of his (or anyone’s) career, we watched as manager Terry Francona lightly shuffled his lineup over the weekend as the Reds eschewed their recent 8-game losing streak and managed to win the series over Houston on Sunday. Will Benson, who has been hot enough to carve out a more permanent role in the lineup against RHP, was moved to the top of the order, and Spencer Steer – himelf on a heater since a slow start – jumped up to hit 2nd.

Right now, Reds leadoff hitters own just a 65 wRC+ collectively this season. That’s the worst mark among leadoff hitters in the sport. They rank last in slugging (.272) and last in OPS (.576), too.

It’s an especially impermissable problem given that the last few weeks have seemingly unlocked several hitters who profile as guys who could actually drive some guys in, if given the chance. Steer has hit .274/.346/.504 (.850) since a brutal 5-game stretch to start the season. Nate Lowe stepped in and showed that his bat simply has to be in the lineup against RHP, and the back of his baseball card over the last 8 years show that, too. Geno Suarez was brought in for big hits in big spots, and he’ll be back within a week if all things go according to plan on his rehab stint. And, there’s Sal Stewart, who despite his recent slump remains a bat you simply dream about having up with runners on base and in position to score.

Benson may be fine as a mix and match guy up top for the time being. He’s been prone to streakiness, and when he’s hot he’s as hot as anyone, and riding that right now may not be the worst decision of all time. However, I just can’t get over the fact that the Reds, right now, have a 24 year old star with 40/80 upside, elite speed when given the chance to run, and an on-base percentage that’s above league average who they just…won’t…give the most PA possible.

When Mike Trout first cut into the big leagues, he was a leadoff hitter, once stealing 49 bags while also swatting 30 homers – he also twice got over 700+ PA in those early years. It was a similar story with Hanley Ramirez when he first broke in with the Marlins, twice swiping 50+ bags in 700+ PA seasons, with one featuring an elite 145 OPS+. As early as tomorrow, the Atlanta Braves are going to activate Ronald Acuña, Jr. off the injured list, and when they do, they’re going to the originator of the 40/70 club in his customary spot atop the order.

Elite power/speed guys simply do not show up often. We’ve seen enough of Elly through his early career to know exactly how devastating he can be when he gets on base, especially when there’s a lineup behind him capable of buying him time to get to 2B. He can score from anywhere, as the Milwaukee Brewers well know, and other teams across the baseball landscape sure seem to be emphasizing that those skills deserve as many chances as they can get each and every day. After all, the top spot in the lineup comes to the plate a good number of times more often over the course of a full season than does the #3 spot.

The Reds offense needs a spark in the worst of ways. They’ll get a little of that when Geno gets back, surely, assuming Francona doesn’t bottle it by giving too many PA to others across the infield. In Elly, they’ve got the single biggest spark in the game…if they could just figure out how best to deploy him.

Right up top, I say. Hit Elly De La Cruz in the leadoff spot.