Category: MLB

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Orioles fans and fans across the country.

The Orioles have 15 games to play and it is likely that the absolute minimum record they would need over those games to get into a wild card spot is 11-4. Even this might have them come up short, depending on how the teams ahead of them in the wild card standings finish over their own final stretches of the regular season.

The odds are heavily against the Orioles pulling off this miracle. Anyone who has watched them play this season does not need to see any exact percentage (6.8% on Baseball Reference, 4.3% on FanGraphs) to know this. The team is beset by many problems. You voted last week that the offense was most likely to hold the team back, with bullpen getting a respectable second place. Subsequent events have not done much to contradict that.

In this week’s poll, I was interested to see how close people think that the Orioles are going to get. Will it be a total collapse? A similar treading of water? Will they get just close enough to make every one of the particularly agonizing losses they’ve suffered this year hurt all the more? Here’s how the votes came in for this one:

That’s a majority thinking the Orioles will end up just about where they are now after beating the Guardians in two of three games. That’s put them at three games back. A healthy second place is those who expect a further collapse. It could certainly happen if the O’s flop in their six remaining games against the Blue Jays, games that the Jays need to get themselves past the Guardians and into a wild card spot for themselves.

Just about one in five people who voted believe that the team will either creep closer or somehow make it into a postseason spot.

A couple of representative thoughts from the comments section about this question:

Commenter TimeWillNotDim:

I voted 5+. This team’s weaknesses have been exposed and they’re too legion. If they were going to play consistently good baseball at some point in the season they would have done it by now.

Commenter Ponticar:

I fully expect the Orioles to win four of their next five to make everyone think they have a chance, then drop five of the next six to how they were only kidding.

The Orioles are part of the way there to this second prediction. They just have to win tonight and tomorrow against the Blue Jays. It wouldn’t surprise me either, if they manage to do this. That’s been the way they’ve played all season.

This week’s survey is sponsored by FanDuel.

Josue De Paula is one of the most-heralded call ups of the 2026 season, with the outfielder in updated prospect ratings ranked third by Baseball Prospectus in July, fourth by Baseball America in August, sixth by MLB Pipeline in August, 10th by ESPN in August, and 18th by The Athletic in July.

De Paula has been a top-100 prospect before both the 2025 and 2026 seasons, but he’s really broken out this year, hitting .303/.401/.547 with a 145 wRC+ as a 21-year-old in Double-A Tulsa.

He mashed 37 doubles and 27 home runs, both more than double his previous career bests (17 doubles in 2024, 12 home runs in 2025), all while cutting his strikeout rate to 14.8 percent, a career low at his highest level yet.

J.J. Cooper at Baseball America compared De Paula to Detroit Tigers shortstop and third baseman Kevin McGonigle, who has thrived as a well-above-average hitter with a 126 wRC+ this season as a rookie. From Cooper:

Dig a bit deeper and it gets even better. De Paula’s in-zone miss rate this year is just under 9%. His overall miss rate is 15%. He has an above-average 22% chase rate, and well above-average 105 mph 90th percentile exit velocity.

You very rarely see that kind of well-rounded profile combining extreme contact ability, excellent plate discipline and real power.

Jim Callis at MLB Pipeline looked at what the Dodgers are getting in De Paula:

De Paula tapped into more power in 2026 by turning his pretty left-handed swing loose more often, and while his chase rate jumped to 22 percent from 14 percent a year ago, that’s still excellent for his age and level. He swung and missed just 15 percent of the time (and only 10 percent of the time against strikes) while producing 90th percentile exit velocities at 104 mph and topping out at 111 mph. Looking at the Major League numbers from this year, that’s similar to a combination of Kevin McGonigle’s bat-to-ball skills and Sal Stewart’s damage.  

Jeffrey Paternostro at Baseball Prospectus is very high on De Paula’s bat:

While I think de Paula is the best offensive prospect in the minors, the main thing keeping him from being the top prospect, full stop, is the defensive/positional value. As he’s filled out he’s gone from stretched in center to stretched in a corner to probably a first baseman. If I was certain he could manage even a 45 glove in a corner spot I’d be amenable to putting him number one, but we don’t know how he handles first base yet, and he might just be a designated hitter. As I mentioned in his Ten Pack from the summer, it’s hard to be one of the best players in baseball as a primary DH unless you hit like Yordan Alvarez. And while that isn’t an impossible marker for de Paula to meet, it’s a very very high-end outcome for the bat even now.

Bruce Kuntz at Dodgers Digest analyzed the call-up as well:

Despite being nearly three years younger than the average Texas Leaguer, De Paula has posted a 90% in-zone contact rate, honing his approach even further this year to balance in-zone aggressiveness with his quality plate discipline. He’s kept the ball off the ground better, lending more pull-side power alongside his continued physical development.

We have a three game series with the Orioles, at Rogers Centre, starting tonight.

The Orioles are two games behind us, and three games out of the last wild card spot.

They have had a rough time of it lately. They are 2-7 in their last nine games. I hope that continues.

They are a good offensive team, 5th in the AL in runs per game, at 4.50 (Jays are second from the bottom at 4.01).

They are 11th in runs allowed per game at 4.68 (Jays are 6th at 4.27).

The scheduled starters are:

• Tonight: Chris Bassitt (6-5, 4.96) vs. Max Scherzer (2-7, 6.03). Does kind of make you wonder about how the standings would be if we had re-signed Bassitt instead of Scherzer.
• Tomorrow: Kyle Bradish (7-13, 3.91) vs. TBD.
• Sunday: Trevor Rogers (10-9, 4.15) vs. TBD (who seems to get overused).

The team has to decide if they want Dylan Cease to have an extra day of rest this time through the rotation. Odd are they will announce who is starting the second and third game as soon as I publish.

The Orioles offense is centered around:

• Pete Alonso: Hitting .268/.363/.498 with 34 home runs, 97 RBI, 74 walks and 4.0 bWAR.

Other ‘top WAR’ players:

• Gunnar Henderson: .219/.303/.395 with 22 home runs, and leads the league with 647 PA and a 2.4 bWAR.
• Colton Cowser: .213/.306/.364 with 13 home runs, and a 2.0 bWAR.

They seem to be using a ‘bullpen by committee’, with no reliever in double figured in saves:

• Andrew Kittredge: 3.83 ERA, 9 saves, 5 blown saves. Batters are hitting .282/.320/.431 against him.
• Rico Garcia: 3.03, 7 saves, 6 blown, 18 holds. Batters are hitting .180/.254/.338 against him.
• Anthony Nunez: 4.02, 3 saves, 7 holds. Batters hitting .208/.305/.340.
• Grant Wolfram: Lefty.4.86, 1 save, 12 holds. Lefties hit .281/.354/.382 against him.
• Yennier Cano: 3.20, 3 saves, 13 holds. Batters hit .221/.278/.291.

We still don’t have to run the table. Taking two of three would be good. We play them again in our second last series of the season. Hopefully, those games will still mean something to us by then (or maybe we’ll have wrapped up the Wild Card spot) (let me dream please).

I’m going to be missing for most of today. Taking our middle boy (and my name sake) out for a birthday supper. And I have to make dessert. He asked for a dessert I used to make when he lived here. It is nice to know he has fond memories of something I did for him. So, unless there is major news, there likely won’t be much posted today (other than the GameThread).

In 1903, the American League launched a New York franchise to compete with the senior circuit’s Giants. They set up shop in Washington Heights at one of Manhattan’s highest points, taking the apropos name of Highlanders. Despite their status as an expansion team, they got off to a strong start, posting winning campaigns in each of their first two seasons. Before their third, they added a pitcher who’d had intermittent success in independent ball but carried with him some question marks. He’d end up spending four years in New York’s rotation at a critical period in their development.

William Johnston Hogg
Born: September 11, 1881 (Port Huron, MI)
Died: December 8, 1909 (New Orleans, LA)
Yankees Tenure: 1905-08 (as New York Highlanders)

Bill Hogg spend his life in a state of perpetual motion. Born in Missouri, his father was a railroad agent who followed the lines out West, ending up in Pueblo, Colorado by the time Hogg was 10. Young Bill played baseball on the sandlots of Pueblo, showing enough with his right arm to earn a spot on the local Class B pro club at 18. He quickly established a reputation as an uneven talent, showcasing superlative speed and movement on his pitches but struggling with control.

Hogg joined up with the Seattle Clamdiggers of the Class B Pacific Northwest League in 1902, where he began experiencing the injuries that would dog him throughout his career. After pitching through a sore arm, he eventually broke it. It was a turning point for the young hurler. “Ever since my arm was broken I have caught particular Cain when I exercise my whip strenuously,” he’d say years later. “After I take a full turn in the box I can’t sleep for a couple of nights…there’s no relief.”

Nonetheless, he returned in ‘03, pitching well enough to draw the attention of the Portland Browns of the Class-A Pacific Coast League. He made the jump after a row with Seattle manager Dan Dugdale reportedly led to fisticuffs, ending his run with the team. But his time in Portland would end nearly as soon as it began. After a “drunken quarrel on the streets of Portland,” the club suspended Hogg. He spent the year bouncing between three different teams but won 33 games, earning a spring training invite in 1905 from the fledgling Highlanders.

Hogg earned a spot on the team, making his MLB debut on April 25 against the Senators. “He was cool, had lots of speed, good control of his side arm delivery, and whisked the ball over the edges of the plate,” read an encouraging report from The Washington Post. He ended up cracking the rotation as the season went on, a berth he’d hold down for most of the next three seasons. Hogg had his best year in 1906, winning 14 games along with a 2.93 ERA in 25 starts for a squad that would finish three games back of the White Sox for the pennant.

On the heels of that strong campaign, Hogg was nearly involved in a trade that would have transformed baseball forever. The Highlanders dangled their rotation piece for a talented 20-year-old outfielder who’d yet to reach his potential. At the 11th hour, the Tigers decided to hang on to Ty Cobb. He’d win his first of 12 batting titles the next year, and the rest is history.

In ’07, the injuries that he’d been playing through began to catch up to Hogg. He missed over a month with a sprained shoulder and a separate illness. The issue came to a head in ‘08, as Yankees president Frank Farrell suspended Hogg due to poor conditioning when a sore arm kept him off the mound. Clark Griffith, the future Hall of Famer who’d spent 20 years as a player before becoming the Highlanders’ first manager, defended his player, whose maladies he believed to be genuine. This disconnect between the skipper and his front office may have played a role in Griffith’s midseason firing, which opened him up to manage and, ultimately, own the Washington Senators.

Before the ‘09 season, Hogg’s contract was sold to the Louisville Colonels of the American Association. He continued to struggle with his health during his lone season in Louisville, but still won 17 games as an important contributor as the Colonels won the league’s championship. After the season, Hogg and a teammate went down to New Orleans to continue playing semipro ball. It was there that the 28-year-old would succumb to his health issues, dying on December 9, 1909. The cause of death was what was then called Bright’s disease but would now be called nephritis of the kidneys, the discovery of which vindicated a man who had unfairly been branded lazy for his difficulty staying on the field. While Hogg’s time in the major leagues was brief, he showcased a remarkable combination of talent and perseverance to perform effectively while dealing with a debilitating illness, playing a key role on several of the first AL teams in New York.

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong enters the weekend series against the Pirates with 41 home runs and 36 stolen bases, perhaps on pace for the seventh 40/40 season ever and first by an Cub.

Earlier this week I asked you how many steals you thought PCA would wind up with.

Here’s what you said:

This seems about right, from 4-8 more steals in the Cubs’ final 15 games.

In addition, if he hits two more home runs he’ll have more than any Cubs left-handed hitter ever. Hall of Famer Billy Williams hit 42 in 1970.

Here are the answers to the two national questions asked this week, both were about predicting this year’s league pennant winners.

A close call between the Brewers and Dodgers among voters, with the Cubs third.

To me, the American League is a closer call. Really, only the Rays and Yankees are good teams in that league; the rest is a toss-up. Things could get interesting if either the Rays or Yankees get upset before the ALCS.

Thanks for participating in this week’s survey!

This edition of SB Nation Reacts is sponsored by FanDuel.

Well, it was fun while it lasted.

In Thursday’s 2-1 loss to the Astros at Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies offense put together perhaps the most undisciplined displays of hitting MLB has ever seen.

They faced Christian Javier, Houston’s right-handed starter who is a shell of the pitcher that famously threw six no-hit innings against them in Houston’s combined no-hitter in Game 4 of the 2022 World Series. He entered Thursday’s finale with a 5.98 ERA in 14 starts, and yet, the Phils were once again stymied by him, tallying just three hits.

But even worse was the method in which they failed.

The Phillies saw 65 pitches thrown out of the strike zone against the Astros on Thursday and they swung at more of those pitches out of the zone than not. That 52.3% chase rate is the highest number ever recorded since it became a trackable number in 2009.

So yes, the Phillies are chasing at the plate, but it goes beyond just what we see on the field.

They’re also chasing their ultimate goal of a World Series title.

Are the two related?

Following the arrival of Luis Arraez from the Giants at the beginning of August, the offense underwent a much-publicized transformation.

Suddenly, a team that had for years been among the worst offenders in chasing pitches out of the strike zone was resisting their primal urges. A team that, for the first five months of the 2026 season, had the lowest on-base percentage in the sport, was getting on base more than any other. A team that had one of the highest strikeout rates had the lowest, and a team that had one of the lowest walk rates, had the highest.

• Through July: .303 OBP (30th), 7.8 BB% (28), 23.7 K% (25)
• 8/1 through 8/23: .367 OBP (2nd), 11.6 BB% (1), 14.5 K% (1)

It was a remarkable turnaround, one that was really difficult to comprehend. How could a team that had, for so many years, displayed such an aggressive approach at the plate suddenly change their stripes as a collective unit? Some credit was being heaped on Arraez, at least on the reduction of strikeouts, although Arraez is not known to be one of the most patient hitters at the plate, either.

We all wondered, could it last?

It did not. Beginning with their west coast road trip in Seattle, the Phils left their patience on the plane. Since the start of their three-game series against the Mariners, they have a .293 OBP (4th-worst), 7.6 BB% (22nd), and 21.5 K% (19th).

Their 34.9% chase rate over that stretch is tied for 8th-highest. From August 1 through 24, it was 31.5%, 21st.

After Thursday’s game, Bryce Harper acknowledged the Phils essentially handed Javier an easy day, and noted these kinds of efforts cannot happen.

Once the calendar flips to October, it’s not suddenly going to become easier not to chase. Learn the habits now and they’ll become habits when it matters most.

As the team chases their elusive World Series title, the pressure will only mount. And in recent seasons, when pressure has mounted on the Phils, particularly in the postseason, their chasing leads to more chasing.

And that’s the point. When the Phillies had their magical ride to the World Series in 2022, the only thing they were chasing was ending their 11-year postseason drought. And make no mistake, they did not play well in the season’s final month, almost choking that away. But after finally earning the final wild card spot, they were done chasing. They were in the moment, with no pressure on them, and played the best baseball we’ve seen from them during this five-year run of success.

Things are different now. The weight of postseason failures are heavy and this team presses as a result. They’re constantly chasing that moment, chasing that home run in a big spot, chasing that 2022 and ‘23 feeling again.

For a few weeks, they stopped doing that. They let pitchers come to them. They took their walks. They passed the baton. As a result, they scored a lot of runs and won a ton of games.

It’s hard to imagine the Phillies playing with patience in a pennant race and in October, but Harper is right.

If they don’t get back at least a little of what they did for the first three weeks of August, it’s likely going to be another short run of postseason baseball in October for them.

The Cincinnati Reds sit 8 games under the .500 mark, mired in last place in the National League Central for yet another year. That, mind you, all comes after they surged to nearly 10 games over .500 during the season’s first month.

Only the hapless Colorado Rockies and homeless Athletics have a worse run differential than Cincinnati, who at -122 sit a full 100 runs worse than the Pittsburgh Pirates – the occupants of 4th place in the division. Shall we say, it has not been a good year in the Queen City.

For one Elly De La Cruz, though, things are all seemingly falling into place.

He figured out how to master left-handed pitching, hitting a league best .350 against southpaws as part of an overall .350/.417/.657 mashing of them (who’s 188 wRC+ ranks as 2nd best in all of Major League Baseball). Just this week he unleashed a 102 mph relay throw that’s the fastest by an infielder in the statcast era. He set a career high with 26 homers while bashing homers in five straight games, in the process setting the mark for the most homers in a single season by a switch-hitter.

On the whole, he’s hitting .283/.362/.511 with 26 homers and 25 steals in 567 PA, and that’s despite missing time earlier in the year with a hamstring problem. He’s been a 5.0 bWAR per Baseball Reference, while FanGraphs has him at 5.6 fWAR – the fourth best position player in the game this year (despite, ahem, missing that time).

All told, it seemed as good a time as any to ask you how he’s done so far in 2026 earlier this week, and all he did since I opened that poll was continue on his epic dinger streak while facing the two best teams in the sport (Milwaukee and the Dodgers). Unsurprisingly, I guess, you all think he’s been doing A-OK.

If anything, what’s notable here is that 44% of respondents think he’s somehow not been an A-grade player this season. Perhaps that’s them voting on a curve knowing that there’s still so much that Elly has yet to tap into in this, just his age-24 season, and only after he reaches those higher heights will we truly be able to give him an ‘A’ on his own standards.

Regardless, Cincinnati’s superstar shortstop is just that – a bona fide superstar in today’s game, and it seems he’s only now just busting out of his shell.

MLB Reacts is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (71-69) lost 8-0 (BOX SCORE)

McPherson started for Sugar Land and allowed 4 runs over 1.2 innings. He was relieved by Nezuh who tossed 3.1 scoreless innings with 6 strikeouts. The bullpen allowed four runs late and the offense had a rough game as Sugar Land was shutout in the 8-0 loss.

Note: Ferreras is hitting .325 in Triple-A.

• Pascanel Ferreras, SS: 2-for-4, SB
• Joey Loperfido, DH: 1-for-3, BB
• Lucas Spence, RF: 1-for-4, 2B
• Cesar Salazar, C: 2-for-4

• Brandon McPherson, RHP: 1.2 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 0 K
• Jackson Nezuh, RHP: 3.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
• Kai-Wei Teng, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
• Logan VanWey, RHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Alimber Santa, RHP: 1.0 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (61-74) lost 5-3 (BOX SCORE)

Mancini started for the Hooks and allowed one run over 3 innings. The offense got on the board in the 5th on a Nunez groundout. Leach relieved Mancini but allowed 4 runs as the RockHounds took the lead. The offense got 2 runs back in the 6th on a Moss 2 run double but that was it as the Hooks fell 5-3.

Note: Moss is hitting .400 in Double-A.

• Jack Moss, 1B: 2-for-4, 2B, 2 RBI, SB
• Anthony Huezo, DH: 0-for-3, RBI, SB
• Zach Daudet, 3B: 1-for-3, R, BB, SB

• Joey Mancini, RHP: 3.0 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• Hudson Leach, RHP: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 4 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• Andrew Marrero, RHP: 0.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, o ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• Colby Langford, LHP: 2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
• Railin Perez, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

A+: Asheville Tourists (43-87) SEASON OVER

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (2-0) won 8-1 (BOX SCORE)

The Woodpeckers got on the board in the first inning on a Durnin RBI single and Alvarez sac fly. They got another run in the second inning on a Flores RBI single. Beck got the start and went 4.2 innings allowing one run while striking out 5. The offense got another run in the 5th with an Alvarez walk. In the 6th the offense scored 3 runs on a Ramirez RBI triple, a steal of home and a Durnin RBI single. Tryon added an RBI double in the 7th. Verdugo was fantastic closing it out as he struck out 6 over 4.1 scoreless innings as the Woodpeckers swept the series 2-0.

Note: The Woodpeckers are moving on to the Championship Series!

• Owen Nowak, LF: 0-for-1, 2 R, 3 BB
• Kam Durnin, SS: 2-for-4, R, 2 RBI, BB
• Kevin Alvarez, CF: 0-for-2, 2 R, 2 BB
• Waner Luciano, 3B: 2-for-5
• Ben Tryon, 1B: 1-for-4, R, 2B, RBI, BB
• Rashawn Galloway, RF: 1-for-4, R, 2B
• Arturo Flores, C: 1-for-4, RBI
• German Ramirez, 2B: 2-for-4, 2 R, 3B, RBI

• Jagger Beck, RHP: 4.2 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
• Ryan Verdugo, RHP: 4.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K (WIN)

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Bryce Mayer – 7:05 CT

CC: Nolan DeVos – 7:00 CT

AV: SEASON OVER

FV: OFF

Good morning! Yesterday, the Los Angeles Dodgers called up their top prospect, Josue De Paula, as a replacement for Shohei Ohtani, who was placed on the IL due to injuries in both his knee and bicep and who is in danger of missing the playoffs.

De Paula’s promotion has Red Sox fans once again wondering whether Franklin Arias might make his debut before the end of the season, and, moreover, whether he might crack the postseason roster. De Paula, a Brooklyn native who is cousins with Stephon Marbury and Sebastian Telfair, is about 6 months older than Arias. But he had not yet progressed to AAA and arguably did not perform as well at AA as Arias did, slashing .293/.390/.528 to Arias’s .318/.407/.587 (2026 stats).

But while it’s easy to look at the two situations and applaud the Dodgers for appearing to be more aggressive with a lesser talent, we’re not dealing with an apples-to-apples comparison here. First, in order for Arias to be eligible for the postseason roster at this point he would have to be serving as an injury replacement for someone currently on the roster, as De Paula is. Second, De Paula is a defensively limited outfielder, and he is likely only going to be used as a DH/bench bat by the Dodgers.

In other words: the Dodgers had a hole and De Paula fills it, regardless of whether he’s actually ready to perform in the big leagues. That’s not necessarily the case with Arias. The Sox have plenty of middle infield options at the moment, and Curtis Mead may join those ranks soon. And while it may very well be true that Arias would already perform better than all of them, it’s impossible to say that for sure. No Red Sox fan who lived through the Kristian Campbell experience should blindly assume that Arias is going to take the big leagues by storm. And, of course, the impending lockout and the impact that would have on his development hangs over all of this.

And yet… man, Trevor Story can barely throw the ball across the diamond right now. I’m a baseball romantic, and the romantic move is to call up Arias. Argue for pragmatism all you want, but you’re a liar if you say a part of you doesn’t want to see Arias debut this month and then shine on into October.

Use this space to talk about De Paula, Arias, and whatever else you want and, as always, be good to one another.

Another day, another “Most Important Series of the Year So Far” as the Guardians arrive in Minneapolis.

The Guardians are 74-73 with a -16 run differential, since the trade deadline 14th in team wRC+ at 100, 23rd in baserunning runs above average at -0.9, sixth in Defense at 1.9, 22nd in starting pitcher ERA at 4.82 (4.30 FIP), and third in bullpen ERA at 2.86 (3.41 FIP).

The Twins are 69-77 with a -54 run differential, seventh in team wRC+ since the the trade deadline at 104, 11th in baserunning runs above average at 0.8, 25th in Defense at -9.8, 26th in starting pitcher ERA at 5.11 (4.38 FIP), and 24th in bullpen ERA at 4.37 (3.63 FIP).

What a disappointing year for the Twins as they actually bought at the deadline and didn’t trade Joe Ryan… only to fall apart again. Jerry-Seinfeld-That’s-A-Shame-Popcorn.GIF.

Matchups:
Game One, Friday, 8:10PM ET: Messick, LHP 2.53 ERA vs. Bradley, RHP, 3.93 ERA
Game Two is Saturday at 4:10PM ET and Game Three is Sunday at 2:10PM ET – Both teams have their starters listed as TBD at the moment. If usual plans proceed, it would be Gavin Williams vs. Bailey Ober on Saturday and Joey Cantillo vs. Joe Ryan on Sunday, but the Guardians have discussed getting an opener for Cantillo. The Twins are likely starting Ryan after an IL stint so he will be on a pitch limit, and may be considering a bullpen game on Saturday.

Since August 4th, the Twins are led by Luke Keaschall 150 wRC+, Josh Bell 138 wRC+, Austin Martin 137 wRC+, Alan Roden 130 wRC+, Ryan Jeffers 121 wRC+, Kody Clemens 118 wRC+, Kaelen Culpepper 112 wRC+ and Brooks Lee 108 wRC+.

Since the trade deadline, the Guardians have been led by Chase DeLauter 177 wRC+, Angel Martinez 132 wRC+, Steven Kwan 127 wRC+, Patrick Bailey 120 wRC+, and Jo Adell 104 wRC+. It would be great if Travis Bazzana continues his recent plate awakening.

The Twins are Murphy’s Lawed a bit lately, but this offense still has plenty of spunk. The Guardians need to come locked in and dedicated to get at least a series win and, preferably, a sweep to compensate for that disappoining finale in Baltimore. It’s been now or never time for a while, and it continues starting tonight,

Hello.

The Rangers lost what had to be a top 3 worst loss of the season yesterday, falling 4-3 to the Mariners.

Evan Grant says it stings that much more now that there’s hardly any time left in the season.

Josh Jung will be back soon, if it isn’t too late already.

Ditto Nathan Eovaldi, who’s likely still looking at a bullpen role when he returns from injury.

Elsewhere MLB Pipeline takes a guess at every team’s top prospect in 2028.

And Prince Fielder is the latest guest on Grant’s podcast.

That’s all for this morning. Happy Friday or whatever.

Welcome to Thursday A’s fans!

We got a brand new series on tap as the A’s welcome division rival Seattle Mariners to town for three games. Seattle is falling in the standings fast and has to be in panic and desperation mode right now. They can’t afford to drop a single game to the Athletics this weekend. That means they’ll be all tense and tight with the pressure of the playoffs bearing on them. The A’s meanwhile don’t have that expectation of a much-needed win. We can play care free and mess with the Mariners all we want. We’re playing with house money and any wins are gravy, especially against a division foe.

The pitching matchups this weekend are set beginning with tonight’s rematch between lefty Jeffrey Springs and righty George Kirby. Springs is in the final stretch of his A’s tenure as the flyball pitcher has made it known he doesn’t think his style of play is conducive to the Athletics’ current home ballpark. He’s not wrong as his ERA on the road is 4.76 compared to the 7.18 mark at Sutter Health. The 33-year-old just saw these guys last time out, firing seven shutout innings with just a pair of hits and walks allowed. That was in Seattle however and this’ll be in his home ballpark. Which Springs will show up tonight? If his season is any indication the A’s bats will have to show up tonight.

Kirby is going to be a tough task for them. The right-hander is in the midst of a solid if unspectacular campaign, sporting a 4.18 ERA through 27 starts. He hasn’t reached the peaks that the M’s envisioned for him when they made him a first round pick seven years ago but he’s settled into a reliable arm for them nonetheless. His most recent start, against our A’s, was the epitome of Kirby as he provided Seattle with nearly seven full frames and three earned runs allowed in a loss. It’s the reverse for Kirby compared to Springs: he’s pitched very well at home but struggles a bit on the road. Oh yea, expect a high scoring game tonight.

Saturday will be another righty-versus-lefty matchup as the Athletics have young southpaw Gage Jump getting the ball for the 20th time this year. The rookie has seen the highs and lows that come with pitching at the big league level and he’s being given runway to work through those issues, which he’s having plenty of recently. The experience he’s getting right now, in these exact type of games, is going to be the building blocks of the future success he’s going to have helping get this squad back to October baseball.

Jump will be opposed by right-hander Bryan Woo. Now wrapping up his fourth season, Woo has been a lot like Kirby in that he’s been reliable to pitch every five days. But like Kirby he’s been more of a mid to backend type of pitcher this season. The 26-year-old has a solid 4.03 ERA but again, those home/road splits are crazy to look at. When pitching in Seattle he’s almost an ace with a 2.36 ERA, but on the road his 5.63 ERA makes him look more like a quadruple-A pitcher. He’s probably not looking forward to pitching in Sacramento.

Then we wrap the series and homestand on Sunday with a Jacob Lopez versus Bryce Miller matchup. Lopez has come all the way back from the lows he experience this summer to be one of the best pitchers over the past couple of months. The lefty has pitched himself back into the A’s plans for the offseason. Whether it’s been enough to guarantee him a rotation job or be more of a depth piece is something the front office will have to decide but for now he’s doing all he can to be a rotation front-runner next spring. He had his first hiccup since rejoining the rotation in his last start where he allowed four runs to the Blue Jays. Hopefully teams aren’t beginning to figure him out with winter around the corner.

Miller meanwhile missed the first month of the year due to injury and that might have thrown him off all year. He started strong enough but has faded back here down the stretch, part of why Seattle has too. He’s 0-4 over his past seven starts with a sky-high 7.22 ERA during that span. It’s going to be a long day at the ballpark all weekend and don’t expect that to change for Miller on Sunday.

And while most of the focus on tonight will be on the A’s versus Mariners, today also marks the 25th anniversary of the 2001 attacks in New York. While the people that perpetrated that disaster sought to tear us apart baseball was one of the things that helped Americans come together during a difficult time. Today we should all remember those feelings of unity to remember those lost on that day.

First pitch is at 6:40. Who’s ready for a win to start our weekend?

A’s Coverage:

• 2027 Infield Landscape Ever Changing
• A’s Shut Out Blue Jays 2-0 to Win Series
• Blue Jays Win 4-2 to Even Series
• A’s Walk Off Blue Jays 6-5
• Mariners Defeat A’s 2-0 in Road Trip Finale
• “Fast Movers” Might Be Key To Contention
• Bi-Polar Performance Arcs Make Evaluation Difficult
• A’s Escape Texas With A Win, Beat Rangers 9-2
• A’s Designate José Suarez For Assignment
• Q&A: Clarke determined to finish strong with A’s after long IL stint
• White exits with back tightness as A’s injury woes continue
• It’s Been a Bummer Summer in Sacramento
• The A’s valuation rises with sales of 2 MLB clubs as Las Vegas move looms
• Your 2026 Hacktastic A’s
• Athletics Considering James Click For GM Vacancy
• Daejon Love case brings back Eric Byrnes’ bizarre story of an A’s bat boy impersonation
• Get the best of Athletics Nation on the new SB Nation app
• How defensive whiz Clarke’s return will impact A’s
• How A’s catcher Bruce Maxwell brought taking a knee to MLB and what happened afterwards
• A’s Plan to Test Top Pitching Prospect Jamie Arnold at Next Level
• Separating The Wheat From The Chaff Not So Easy
• Amidst The Despair: The Position Player Talent Is There
• What Are The Next Steps For The A’s? ($)
• Where Each A’s Player’s Contract Stands Entering Offseason
• Why Athletics Will Have Scary Offense in 2027
• Underdog Athletics prospect Cole Conn playing like a big dog for Aviators
• Behind the Plate, the A’s Face an Offseason Reckoning
• Why The New GM Needs To “Clean House”
• A Seemingly Rock Bottomless Glass
• MLB Trade Grades: A’s Have Quiet Trade Deadline
• Fustercluck 2026: The Real Reasons For A Disappointing Season

MLB News and Interest:

• Salvador Perez Going “Year By Year” With His Career
• Pirates’ Braxton Ashcraft has arm discomfort, lands on IL
• Kaima Taira Expected To Be Posted For MLB Teams This Offseason
• Back with Yankees, Volpe playing second base for first time in bigs
• Braves’ Lane Thomas headed to IL after batting cage injury
• Which Hitters Will Receive The Qualifying Offer?
• Brewers’ Brandon Sproat demoted after struggles vs. Cubs
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

Another pitching prospect that could make it to the big leagues next year:

Not shocking with LV around the corner:

Some of the names:

Former 8th rounder promoted to Las Vegas:

Playing spoiler is fun too!

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The Toronto Blue Jays return home tonight with a chance to gain ground in the Wild Card race, and my Orioles vs. Blue Jays predictions believe they're in prime position to pick up another win as -125 favorites.

Read on for my free MLB picks for this Friday, Sept. 11 matchup, with first pitch set for 7:07 p.m. ET at Rogers Centre.

Orioles vs Blue Jays predictions

Orioles vs Blue Jays best bet: Blue Jays moneyline (-125)

The Toronto Blue Jays have a clear opportunity to create separation against another club hanging around the playoff picture in the Baltimore Orioles tonight.

Toronto gets a favorable matchup against Chris Bassitt, who carries a 4.96 ERA and has struggled badly with left-handed hitters. Southpaws are hitting .322 against him, and eight of the nine home runs he's allowed have come from that side.

He has also been far worse away from Baltimore, posting a 6.43 ERA and 1.786 WHIP in nine road appearances.

Max Scherzer’s 6.03 season ERA is ugly, but his recent form has been considerably more encouraging (3.60 ERA last seven starts), and he doesn’t need to be vintage against a Baltimore lineup that has cooled off (28th by OPS in September).

Toronto has several left-handed bats capable of exploiting Bassitt, and I prefer backing the Jays outright at a manageable -125 rather than asking them to cover the run line. Play to -140.

COVERS INTEL: Lefties are batting .322 with a .397 OBP and .505 SLG against Bassitt this season, while righties have managed just .264 with a .321 SLG.

Orioles vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)

I’m leaning into a Toronto-friendly offensive game without asking either lineup to completely explode. The Blue Jays moneyline anchors the ticket, while dropping the total to Over 7.5 gives us breathing room if Toronto does most of the scoring.

Nathan Lukes completes the parlay, and his matchup with Bassitt is the main attraction. Lukes is batting .294 with a .422 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching, and with lefties hitting .322 against Bassitt, he has a realistic path to cashing with either two singles or one extra-base hit.

Orioles vs Blue Jays SGP

• Blue Jays moneyline
• Over 7.5
• Nathan Lukes Over 1.5 total bases

Orioles vs Blue Jays home run pick: Jesus Sanchez (+675)

Jesus Sanchez is my favorite longshot on Toronto’s home run board because his power profile lines up perfectly with Bassitt’s biggest weakness. Bassitt has allowed eight of his nine home runs to left-handed hitters, and just one home run to a right-handed hitter all season, which makes Sanchez’s handedness an especially important part of the matchup.

Sanchez has also done his best work at home, batting .279 with a .522 slugging percentage and seven home runs in 136 at-bats at Rogers Centre.

The +675 price gives us considerably more upside than Toronto’s more obvious power bats. At this number, I’m comfortable taking a quarter-unit shot on the left-handed bat with the clearest matchup advantage.

Orioles vs Blue Jays odds

• Moneyline: Baltimore +105 | Toronto -125
• Run line: Baltimore +1.5 | Toronto -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8

Orioles vs Blue Jays trend

The Blue Jays own a .625 win percentage since July 23 (25-15), tied for the best mark in the American League during that period. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Blue Jays.

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