On Monday, I looked at how the pitchers in the upper minors were doing and honestly from a statistical standpoint, it wasn’t great. Mind you, it’s early in the season, and we know pitchers work on things at the expense of the best way they currently know how to get hitters out, and the run environments are pretty rough at both levels. Also, AAA has a different ball than the rest of the minor leagues. These are all reasons the stats are going look worse without being a problem. Lower minors however have good pitching environments, so I expect more pleasing-to-the-eye stats.
Peoria
Brandon Clarke, LHP – 23 (VEB’s #9 prospect)
Clarke was diagnosed with an aneurysm in his left arm and had surgery around the beginning of spring training and it has caused him to be out until at least June. I haven’t heard an update since.
Tanner Franklin, RHP – 22 (VEB’s #13 prospect)
Stats: 8 GS, 27.1 IP, 32 K%, 11.5 BB%, 39.7 GB%, .369 BABIP, 3.29 ERA/3.41 FIP/4.54 xFIP
Franklin is working on two things simultaneously. He is working on developing pitches to add to his fastball and slider while also working on a starting pitcher’s workload. He usually faces between 15 and 18 batters in a start, which even in today’s age, is short of how many outs a starter needs to get regularly. But he was facing between three and nine batters in college, and you don’t want to skip a step.
Yhoiker Fajardo, RHP – 19 (VEB’s #19 prospect)
Stats: 8 GS, 32.2 IP, 33.6 K%, 4.3 BB%, 36.6 GB%, .400 BABIP, 3.31 ERA/3.47 FIP/3.37 xFIP
I am feeling very good about placing Fajardo 9th on my list. He has been unbelievable this season. That is an absurd K/BB ratio. He has 47 strikeouts and 6 walks in 32.2 IP. Just purely scouting the stat line + age, I feel like Fajardo should be a much bigger prospect than he appears to be.
Leonel Sequera, RHP – 20
Stats: 8 GS, 34 IP, 25.9 K%, 9 BB%, 46.6 GB%, .396 BABIP, 10.06 ERA/6.72 FIP/4.28 xFIP
I don’t know what to do with this line. His strikeouts are way up from last year, his walks are about the same, and he’s still getting groundballs. But when hitters make contact, they appear to be going for hits most of the time. Tough to say if that’s unlucky or not in this kind of sample. He has allowed 10 homers already, and he’s only allowed 28 flyballs all year. If you’re wondering, a normal amount of luck and that’s three homers allowed. He’s probably pitching worse than someone who would allow three homers, but 10 certainly feels unlucky.
Nate Dohm, RHP – 23 (acquired in the Ryan Helsley trade)
Stats: 6 GS, 16.2 IP, 24.1 K%, 13.9 BB%, 40.4 GB%, .391 BABIP, 10.26 ERA/5.36 FIP/5.32 xFIP
Well Dohm is for sure pitching poorly, but wow another case of a wildly disproportionate ERA in comparison to advanced stats. Now this is a significantly smaller sample size and can happen when you get blown up in three of your six starts, which unfortunately appear to be his three most recent starts.
Blake Aita, RHP – 23 (acquired in the Willson Contreras trade – with Fajardo)
Stats: 8 GS, 32.1 IP, 26.9 K%, 12.4 BB%, 39.8 GB%, .338 BABIP, 3.90 ERA/5.78 FIP/4.88 xFIP
The return for Sonny Gray has resulted in a completely missing season and one where they haven’t debuted yet, but the early returns for the Contreras trade have been fantastic. Dobbins, the MLB ready piece, looks like an ideal sixth starter, Fajardo has probably catapulted himself into a top 10 team prospect, and Aita – well he’s been fine. Clearly they’re making an effort to get him more strikeouts, which has the side effect of more as well so far. The next step is keep the strikeouts, lower the walks.
Patrick Galle, RHP – 22
Stats (Low A): 5 G, 5.2 IP, 60.9 K%, 21.7 BB%, 33.3 GB%, .000 BABIP, 0.00 ERA/2.03 ERA/2.29 xFIP
High A: 7 G, 10 IP, 23.3 K%, 18.6 BB%, 41.7 GB%, .167 BABIP, 1.80 ERA/4.62 FIP/6.48 xFIP
Oh yeah there was a third part of the Gray trade, which is Galle. He was quite literally unhittable in Low A, throwing 5.2 hitless innings down there. Just three of the 23 hitters he faced even made contact. No wonder they promoted him to High A after just five appearances. But it’s clear Galle doesn’t have a lot of control and High A hitters – well they’re still barely getting hits despite much more contact.
Frank Ellisalt, RHP – 24 (acquired in the Ryan Helsley trade)
Ellisalt suffered some kind of hip injury in February, and I’m not exactly sure how long he’s expected to be out, but he was put on the minor league 60-day injured list, so he certainly won’t pitch the rest of this month at least.
Palm Beach
Ty Van Dyke, RHP – 22 (2025 10th round pick)
Stats: 7 GS, 28.2 K%, 6.5 BB%, 44.9 GB%, .218 BABIP, 1.64 ERA/3.28 FIP/3.78 xFIP
Van Dyke has already been promoted to Peoria and he had… a not very good first start there. He threw 3.2 IP, walked three, struck out two, and allowed three runs. Nevermind that though, it was his first start and we have a 10th rounder who the Cardinals promoted him to High A after just 12 starts at that level. I’d call that a success.
Cade Crossland, LHP – 22 (2025 4th round pick)
Stats: 8 GS, 32 IP, 31.4 K%, 18.2 BB%, 35.4 GB%, 4.78 ERA/4.54 FIP/4.93 xFIP
Well, I like the strikeouts. The walks and lack of groundballs aren’t great. A good example of his season is his last two starts. In his most recent start, Crossland threw 5 innings, struck out 7, walked two and allowed 2 ER. The start before, Crossland walked six, struck out six, allowed no hits and yet gave up a run. Every other start seems to involve a lot of walks. It has only really burned him in one start, when he gave up seven runs.
Jack Martinez, RHP – 23 (acquired in Nolan Arenado trade)
Stats: 8 GS, 27.1 IP, 29.8 K%, 12.9 BB%, 27.7 GB%, .297 BABIP, 3.95 ERA/4.71 FIP/4.95 xFIP
These stats kind of scream reliever to me. He misses plenty of basses but can’t find the zone a lot and almost nothing is on the ground. I don’t know, it’s a tough profile to make work. But these are his first 8 career pro starts, despite his age, because he was in college last season. Too early to make any declarations.
Jacob Odle, RHP – 22
Stats: 8 (6 GS), 33.6 K%, 10.9 BB%, 51.5 GB%, .324 BABIP, 1.80 ERA/3.29 FIP/3.11 xFIP
Oh hey a genuine breakout. Odle has been a strikeout machine and a groundball machine, which is a pitching coach’s dream. Very tough for an offense to get runs if the pitcher does both of those things. His walks are a little high, but really not that bad and especially not bad with that K rate.
Jake Shelagowski, RHP – 22 (2025 13th rounder)
Stats: 8 G, 26.1 IP, 25.2 K%, 8.4 BB%, 40.3 GB%, .270 BABIP, 4.10 ERA/4.06 FIP/4.68 xFIP
Despite just one game started, Shelagowski appears to currently be a starting pitching prospect, average over 3 innings per game. And he was a starter in his most recent game, so he may have officially moved into the rotation. While his walks haven’t been bad, he has somehow hit seven batters already this season.
Yadiel Batista, LHP – 22
Stats: 6 G, 11.2 IP, 27.1 K%, 2.1 BB%, 42.4 GB%, .303 BABIP, 3.09 ERA/2.93 FIP/3.21 xFIP
Well it’s obviously early in the season, but Batista may be seeing a promotion before the year is up, because 13 strikeouts to one walk is quite the K/BB ratio. He was kind of being treated like a starting pitching prospect a year ago, but his stats weren’t very good, so he seems to be in more of a relief role this year. And it has made a difference. Last year, his K% was just 16.4% and he walked 10.9%. The Cardinals made the right decision.
Ethan Young, RHP – 22
Stats: 8 GS, 27.1 IP, 26.3 K%, 11.3 BB%, 36.7 GB%, .405 BABIP, 7.24 ERA/4.41 FIP/4.55 xFIP
Young hasn’t quite pitched as bad as his ERA. It just so happens when you walk your fair share of batters and your BABIP is .400, you’re going to allow a lot of runs. It’s too early to judge if that BABIP is comically unlucky, or a sign that Young is pretty hittable. Striking out 26% of batters would seem to suggest the BABIP is probably, at least somewhat, unlucky.
Complex
Brian Holiday, RHP – 23
Stats: 3 G (2 GS), 6.2 IP, 30.4 K%, 4.3 BB%, 60 GB%, .357 BABIP, 2.70 ERA/4.45 FIP/3.43 xFIP
Holiday is in the beginning stages of his rehab from his Tommy John surgery last year, which caused him to miss the entire season. He was the 3rd round pick of the 2024 draft, and he didn’t get a chance to pitch in the pros, getting hurt before he ever threw a pitch. These are exactly the stats I’d expect of college righty rehabbing in rookie leagues.
Payton Graham, RHP – 22 (2025 7th rounder)
Stats: 3 GS, 9.2 IP, 38.9 K%, 8.3 BB%, 50 GB%, .263 BABIP, 1.86 ERA/2.18 FIP/2.83 xFIP
Graham is also pitching in the pros for the first time after having had Tommy John surgery last season. In Graham’s case though, he had it before he got drafted, and I was actually under the impression that Graham would debut much later. He’s carving up these teenagers like Michael Myers, so I actually expect to see him in Palm Beach pretty soon.
And that’s pretty much it. I wasn’t going to list any rookie league players, because the season just started, but both Holiday and Graham are arguably Low A pitchers at least who are simply pitching for the first time after Tommy John surgery. Graham was healthy and ready to pitch earlier than Holiday, because Graham faced 11 batters and threw 3 innings in his first outing, Holiday only pitched an inning. So just not the order I would have expected there.