Category: MLB

Since most of the conversation lately seem to have zigged towards the Nolan Gorman question and somewhat the Riley O’Brien question, I decided to zag in another direction. My curiosity? Of the minor leagues prospects we’ve been watching, who has the most interesting pitch shape metrics (ie. the under the hood stuff)? We seem to be far enough into the season to have built up some stats that can stand up to Small Sample Size (SSS) scrutiny. Since I do the daily down on the Farm Reports, I see the various pitcher usage and line score results every day. That has made me curious about some things that might be going on beyond the line score.

That real-time curiosity met up with a longer-term, nagging deficiency in my knowledge set. It goes like this: Every so often as prospect watcher like @KareemSSN will post an interesting tidbit on a pitcher with stuff I find really cool. He is pretty good at explaining things, but one of things that has frustrated me is I can look at a chart like this and lack the context of what is good, what is bad and what is irrelevant and I have to re-remember all that and I can’t find a reliable source for reference. So I set out to build my own reference, so when something like this pops up, I can open my reference card and interpolate if an SI spin of 2038 with an HB of 13.7 is good, bad or irrelevant. In this case, it’s not great, but very relevant to gauging a Slider’s potential effectiveness.

I’m going to start with a set of numbers similar to what is above, although I can’t help myself and add a few and delete some others. I’m going to pull all the pitch data for our Low-A and AAA pitching prospects and see who has elite level metrics in any of the categories. I will be dropping VREL, Ext and Chase and add in some expected performance measures like xwOBA, xBA, along with actual measures like K and BB rate.

My first crack at this will be to discover which Low-A pitchers have top 10th percentile metrics. This is a “who has a tool that sticks out” kind of question. For those pitchers with a notable metric, I will show a comparison not only to their league, but AAA and MLB standards for the same metric. For fun, I will also include a notable non-Cardinal prospect in the analysis (Seth Hernandez) to give some context to some of the numbers you will see.

A couple of quick notes on the data:

1. The data comes from Baseball Savant (probably not surprising). The minor league side only has data for Low-A and AAA pitchers, so my research will unfortunately exclude High-A and AA pitchers. We have to wait for Liam Doyle to get to Memphis before we get to look under the hood.
2. I’d love to use Chase%, but I can not find it in the exported set that comes from Savant. If anyone has any pointers, let me know.
3. I arbitrarily set a cut off at 50 pitches … any pitcher with less than 50 pitches in that league is excluded. It helped make the data manageable, and also smoothed out most major league rehab pitchers. I’m not comparing prospects to veteran MLB pitchers, I’m comparing them to their peers.
4. The vertical and horizontal movement ranks are non-intuitive. Whereas a low xBA is good (top 10th percentile) and a high xBA is bad (bottom 10th percentile), when it comes to direction, either extreme can be good, depending on the pitch type. For example, a high positive on the horizontal axis on a Sinker (SI) can produce a top 10th percentile, whereas a high negative on the same axis coupled with a Slider (SL) can produce a bottom 10th percentile result, which is equally good, given the pitch type.

Low-A Metric Leader Board

The above table depicts 12 Palm Beach (Low-A) pitches who have at least one pitch metric in the top 10th percentile of their league. These represent the tools the Cardinals have to work with and develop.

The thirteen pitcher is a proxy – Seth Hernandez. If you’ve never heard of him, you will. He is what scouts dream of when it comes to pitch metrics:

• (FF) Four seam fastball that has top 10th percentile in velo AND horizontal movement
• (SL) Slider with top tenth percentile in whiff rate and horizontal movement
• (CH) with top tenth spin rate and whiff rate

With that primer, let’s look at Cardinal Low-A prospects:

• Alex Breckheimer has elite command with his four seamer w/ a top 10th percentile walk rate.
• Cade Crossland’s spin rate and horizontal break on his change-up (CH) are top 10th. His curve (CU) has elite whiff rate and elite horizontal break (90th percentile). This is one of those counter-intuitive ones where the large negative number is a great number. In an odd one, his slider (SL) has a really odd outlier horizontal break – it breaks into RH hitters. That will need fixing.
• Antoni Cuello has top 10th horizontal break on his FF and SL, and has a superior K rate with that slider. It is a put away pitch.
• Dylan Driessen has top 10th percentile induced vertical break on this 4-seam fastball (FF). I always get this backwards but I think this means it has “ride” or “hop” to it. He also has exceptional command over his slider (SL).
• Kaden Echemann has an even better curve (CU) that Crossland with 16” of downward break. Memories of Uncle Charlie with this one.
• Jack Martinez has unusual break on his slider. It doesn’t miss bats, and walks lots of guys, so I don’t see this 10th percentile rating as all that helpful.
• Jacob Odle carries top tenth percentile on both his FF. He had one of the hardest curves in the league, too, before he advanced to High-A.
• John Shelagowski has elite horizontal break on his FF and has elite and near-elite characteristics on his slider (SL).
• Tyler Van Dyke’s FF really rides in on RH batter, with a high K and low walk rate (the velo itself is pedestrian). He also carries very good command characteristics on his SL.
• Ethan Young carries top tenth percentile characteristics on his SI, CH and FF. Looks a little like Seth Hernandez, huh?

Performance Matters

Stuff (and the underlying metrics which show it) are one thing. Performance is another. Which pitchers (in Low-A Palm Beach) are getting the most out of their stuff? Let’s look more at performance outcomes as see how they rate.

In the above table, you will see many of the same names and pitches, this time with how those pitches are performing in real games. There are few new names, as some guys without top 10th percentile stuff are still getting top tenth percentile results, such as Nelfy Ynfante, who really limits hard contact without any top tier stuff.

Some notes:

• Crossland’s change and curve perform well. Sure enough, that odd slider does not.
• Odle’s FF seems to perform a bit worse that the metrics suggest it should.
• Van Dyke’s command sets him apart.
• Jack Martinez seems to get more out of his FF that the metrics suggest he should.
• Ethan Young, with 4 pitches on this chart, should become a name to remember. How many low-A pitchers do you remember that already have 4 average or better offerings?

Summary

So I’m ending this just with Low-A pitchers. Round 2 will include AAA pitchers, in similar format, depending on how commenters react to this first go. This hopefully provides you with some names to watch for, some reasons to watch for them and some explanation about why these guys keep getting used in priority situations.

Closing

Oh, yeah. Remember that cheat sheet I keep looking for to remember what is a really good pitch metric…like for when someone tell us so-and-so’s sinker (SI) breaks arm side 18”. Is that good? Is it elite? Below is an MLB chart and indeed, anything above 17.9” is top tenth percentile. This is for all pitchers in the MLB in 2026.

One interesting thing I think I see in this data. There really doesn’t seem to be a lot a difference in top tenth pitch metrics (spin rate, horizontal break, etc.) between Low-A and MLB. Is that a reasonable look? That tells me that location, command and sequencing is what they learn coming up the ladder, but the raw materials are pretty much in place in Low-A. Valid observation?

Long-term, I might spiff this up by blanking out more irrelevant columns. For example, percentile rank is not crucial for velocity on a Knuckle Curve. For most breaking/off speed pitches, the offset from the FF/SI is more crucial, as well as the spin direction (which isn’t in the data set, as far as I can tell).

Greetings, Brew Crew Ball community. The Brewers had another slightly underwhelming week, as they swept the Rockies in Colorado and won an extra-innings slugfest on Monday night in Las Vegas but ultimately dropped their series with the A’s. Elsewhere in the division, the bottom three teams (Pirates, Cubs, and Reds) struggled, but the Cardinals continue to surprise, as they’ve closed the gap in the division. The Brewers are now back home as they’ll welcome the Phillies and Guardians over the next week.

Feel free to use this thread to chat about (almost) anything you want: video games, food, movies, non-baseball sports, the Brewers, you name it. As long as it’s appropriate and is allowed by our moderators, it’s fair game here.

You know the drill.

This is now an open thread:

Free of charge for the discerning reader.

Happy birthday to Damon Buford, and a mighty host of others.

Today in baseball history, in 1939 – In front of a record crowd of 23,864 fans at Ruppert Stadium in Newark, NJ, Lou Gehrig plays his last game in a Yankee uniform when he participates in an exhibition contest against the Kansas City Blues, the team’s American Association farm club. The “Iron Horse”, playing only three innings and batting eighth, grounds out weakly to second base in his only at-bat, and other stories as well.

Today in baseball history:

• 1880 Worcester Ruby Legs pitcher Lee Richmond throws the first perfect game in MLB history in a 1-0 win over the Cleveland Blues at the Agricultural County Fair Grounds in Worcester
• 1928 – Lou Gehrig of the New York Yankees collects 14 total bases with two triples and two home runs in a 15-7 victory over the Chicago White Sox.
• 1970 – Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Dock Ellis no-hits the San Diego Padres, 2-0. Ellis receives all his support on two home runs by Willie Stargell. Ellis will later claim that he was suffering from the after-effects of his previous night’s LSD trip while pitching this gem.
• 1975 – Oakland Athletics outfielder Billy Williams hits his 400th career home run.
• 1990 MLB Oakland A’s outfielder Rickey Henderson becomes the second to steal 900 bases.
• 1990 Orioles Cal Ripken plays in his 1,308th consecutive game to move past Everett Scott into second place on the all-time list.
• 2010 – Derek Jeter homers twice and Jorge Posada hits a grand slam in New York’s 9-3 win over Houston. 

Cubs Birthdays:Hunter Bigge, Aaron Civale, Sean Newcomb, Dallas Beeler, Damon Buford*, Bob Thorpe, Jack Cusick, Otto Knabe, John Stedronsky. Also notable: Bill Foster HOF.

Today in history:

• 1923 – Harry Houdini frees himself from a straight jacket while suspended upside down, 40 feet (12 m) above ground in NYC.
• 1930 – German boxer Max Schmeling beats Jack Sharkey by disqualification in 4 rounds in NYC for vacant NBA, NYSAC, The Ring and lineal heavyweight titles; first time title won on a foul.
• 1931 – Al Capone is indicted on 5,000 counts of prohibition violations and perjury.
• 1979 – Kevin St Onge throws a playing card a record 185 ft-1 inch; record broken in 1992.
• 1981 – Larry Holmes TKOs Leon Spinks in 3 for WBC heavyweight boxing title.
• 1987 – US President Ronald Reagan challenges Mikhail Gorbachev to “tear down” the Berlin wall.
• 2008 – Patrick Kane receives the Calder Memorial Trophy as the NHL’s rookie of the year.

Today in music history:

• 1909 – “Shine On, Harvest Moon” by Ada Jones & Billy Murray hits #1.
• 1965 – Queen Elizabeth’s Birthday Honours List names The Beatles as MBEs (Members of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire); dozens of past winners return medals in protest.
• 1966 – Dave Clark Five sets record as they appear for 12th time on “The Ed Sullivan Show.”
• 1970 – Rocker and blues singer Janis Joplin debuts in Kentucky.
• 1990 – Mariah Carey‘s self-titled debut album is released.
• 1993 – “Three Little Pigs” by Green Jelly hits #17.
• 2008 – Coldplay release their 4th studio album ” Viva la Vida or Death” (winner of 3 Grammys).

*pictured.

The Phillies now head to Wisco for a set against the Brewers. I’ve heard that actual Wisconsinites never say “Wisco”. Is that true? As you can tell (or maybe not?) from my use of the term, I am not from Wisconsin.

Onto the links.

Phillies news

The Phillies are going to have some All-Stars for the hometown All-Star Game. But how many?

Look! Who’s over there, cresting that Hill? Why, it’s the newest Phillie.

Jhoan Duran has done a lot of work for the Phillies. Here’s how he keeps himself ready to do it. ($)

Cristopher Sánchez followed in the footsteps of Grover Cleveland Alexander, then surpassed him. ($)

MLB news

Shohei Ohtani left last night’s contest early with an injury…

…and so did Justin Wrobleski.

Tarik Skubal is returning to the Tigers on Saturday.

Aroldis Chapman wants an apology from Yankees GM Brian Cashman.

It’s mock draft season!

The Pittsburgh Pirates are addressing some season-long problems in the bullpen by calling up number seven prospect Antwone Kelly ahead of this weekend’s series against the Miami Marlins.

The 22-year-old right-hander had a 4.50 ERA and a 1.481 WHIP at Triple-A Indianapolis this season, which are hardly sparkling numbers, but as the team continues to middle along with a 4.45 ERA as a bullpen, some reinforcement arms were needed. He did pitch over 100 innings last year with a 3.02 ERA, which helped his cause.

Kelly has a fastball that reaches triple digits and averages 97.6 mph in the Minors, and he also employs a change-up and a cutter. He began the year in the starting rotation for Indianapolis, but was then moved to the bullpen.

The 20th-ranked Pirates bullpen needs all the help they can get, having two major blowups within the past week, giving up a 10-run inning to the Los Angeles Dodgers and blowing 9-5 eighth inning lead to the Houston Astros. The bullpen seems to be getting worse, not better, which is why some fresh bullpen arms were needed. Whether Aruban native Kelly is part of the answer or not remains to be seen, but we’ll be set to find out this weekend against the Marlins.

The Bucs have three home games against Miami this weekend, playing Friday at 6:40pm, Saturday at 4:05pm and Sunday at 12:15pm. We’ll see Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler and Paul Skenes taking the mound this weekend as starters. Once we get to the bullpen, there’s a good chance Kelly makes his debut. Stay tuned.

The Yankees are going to have to pass the “Playing without Aaron Judge Test” repeatedly over the next several weeks, but they’ve passed the initial run. They’ve won five of six since the Captain’s injury was officially announced, with the offense particularly stepping up in a series sweep in Cleveland. The road trip continues with the team’s first visit to Canada this year, where they’ll look to repay the Blue Jays for Toronto’s domination of New York last year.

On the site today, we turn our sights to the Jays, with Matt previewing the three-game set. Later, Sam recaps Thursday’s American League action, and Nick praises the great Hideki Matsui on the occasion of his 52nd birthday. Also, Peter’s sequence of the week highlights Fernando Cruz, and Jeff discusses how Trent Grisham’s resurgence couldn’t have come at a better time.

Today’s Matchup:

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

Time: 3:07 p.m. EST

TV: YES, Sportsnet, TVA Sports

Venue: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON

Questions/Prompts:

1. On the occasion of the Yankees visiting Toronto, do you think the Jays are still a major threat to come back in the division? Or do you think they’ve fallen far back enough?

2. Can you think of a baseball analogue to what happened in Game 4 of the NBA Finals?

St. Paul Saints 1, Toledo Mud Hens 0 (box)

Pitching was sharp on both sides in this one as Sawyer Gipson-Long posted his best start of the season while the Hens were held to four hits.

The right-hander fired five scoreless innings of one-hit ball of his own in this one. Gipson-Long allowed two walks, but he struck out five on the evening. As usual, his slider-changeup combo was very good, but his fastball metrics remain well below average. Ricky Vanasco succeeded him with a scoreless inning of work, and Troy Watson took it the rest of the way. He too pitched a solid three innings, but allowed a solo shot in the top of the ninth for the only run in this one.

Max Clark went 0-for-5 but didn’t strike out, and he was the only Hen who could say that. Corey Julks had two hits to lead the offense, such as it was as Saints veteran Austin Voth struck out eight in his start.

Julks: 2-4, 2B, 2 K

Gipson-Long: 5.0 IP, 0 R, H, 2 BB, 5 K

Coming Up Next: It’s a 7:05 p.m. ET start on Friday in Toledo.

Erie SeaWolves 8, Akron RubberDucks 7 (box)

John Peck came through with a walkoff double after the RubberDucks tied this one up late.

Starter Sean Hunley struggled for Erie in this one, but the offense seized control pretty early after Hunley gave up four runs in four innings.

Brett Callahan is really pressing his case for a move to Toledo now. The left-handed outfielder crushed a solo shot in the bottom of the first for his 12th home run of the season, and his fifth in the last six games. Callahan is holding his own against left-handed pitching and destroying right-handers. The Tigers do things at a glacial pace but Callahan should be moving up after the All-Star break if he can avoid a slump in the meantime.

In the second, singles from Chris Meyers and Izaac Pacheco led to their second run. In the third, they really poured on the offense. Peyton Graham singled with one out and John Peck drew a walk. A two-out single from Andrew Jenkins plated Graham, and then Meyers walked to load the bases. Pacheco ripped a two-run single to right field and then stole second base. E.J. Exposito came through with a two-run single of his own, and it was 7-3 Erie through three innings.

The Detroit area’s own Alex Mooney hit a solo shot off of Hunley in the fourth to make it a 7-4 game, and the RubberDucks chipped away at the lead with a two-run sixth against Johan Simon.

Moises Rodriguez took over in the ninth with a 7-6 lead looking for the save. He got a quick pair of ground outs and his sinker is popping triple digits now that the weather has heated up. That didn’t stop Jaison Chourio, who got a hanging slider and launched it to right for just the second homer against Rodriguez this year.

Tie ballgame.

The reversal came quickly in the bottom half. Graham walked, and Peck smoked a double off the right field wall. Graham raced first to home ahead of the relay, and the SeaWolves had a walkoff winner.

Peck: 2-4, R, RBI, 2B, BB, 2 K, SB

Graham: 1-4, 2 R, BB, K

Pacheco: 2-3, R, 2 RBI, BB, K, SB

Hunley: 4.0 IP, 4 R, 3 ER, 5 H, BB, 4 K

Coming Up Next: The SeaWolves will morph into the Flagship City Kitties on Friday, as they hunt for their fifth straight victory at 6:35 p.m. ET.

Lake County Captains 6, West Michigan Whitecaps 5 (box)

The Whitecaps beat up on Captains starter Melkis Hernandez, only to watch their bullpen blow the lead late on Thursday.

Right out of the gate, a one-out single from Andrew Sojka and a double from a still hot Ricardo Hurtado got the Whitecaps in scoring position, and Sojka scored on a ground out for a 1-0 lead.

Starter Lucas Elissalt leaked two runs in the bottom half on a single-double-single combination, but in the second, Samuel Gil and Junior Tilien led off with singles. Caleb Shpur’s automatic double scored Gil, and a Sojka single scored Tilien. Shpur was thrown out at the plate, but it was 3-2 ‘Caps.

The third opened with back-to-back doubles from Clayton Campbell and Luke Shliger for a 4-2 lead. Unfortunately Gil lined into a double play to snuff that threat from developing further.

Elissalt allowed a Dean Curley solo shot off a high fastball in the bottom of the third that got the Captains back within one. The right-hander has struggled early on this year, but we keep seeing hints of more velocity, and he was really just bit by sequencing. Other than the solo shot he wasn’t hit hard at all and was in pretty good command of his stuff.

Again the Whitecaps pushed across a run in the bottom half on a Campbell sac fly that scored Sojka.

Unfortunately, that 5-3 lead wouldn’t hold up as Preston Howey surrendered three runs in the sixth, and the offense went quiet.

Sojka: 3-5, 2 R, RBI, 2 K

Hurtado: 2-5, 2B, K

Gil: 2-4, R

Elissalt: 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, BB, 4 K

Coming Up Next: It’s a 7:00 p.m. ET start on Friday with the Captains up 2-1 in the series.

Clearwater Threshers 5, Lakeland Flying Tigers 2 (box)

Malachi Witherspoon’s control was pretty shaky again in this one, and the bullpen kept leaking runs while the offense was pretty quiet.

Witherspoon did settle in eventually, but he coughed up two runs in a pretty laborious first inning. He shut the Threshers down from there and found his command to a degree, but was still pretty efficient. He departed in the fourth and Yendry Gomez cleaned up that inning and spun a scoreless fifth as well.

In the fifth, the Flying Tigers finally capitalized on an opportunity when a passed ball got Nick Dumesnil to second base, and a Beau Ankeney single scored him. In the sixth, Anibal Salas singled with two outs, and Hunter Dobbins doubled him in.

At that point it was a 2-2 game and things were looking up.

In the bottom of the sixth, Luke Hoskins came on for Lakeland and an error on Jude Warwick allowed the leadoff hitter to reach and then steal second base. A double that Javier Osorio couldnt’ snare at third gave the Threshers the lead. Hoskins leaked another run before getting out of the inning, and gave up one more in the seventh as the Flying Tigers’ offense went silent.

Dobbins: 2-4, RBI, 2B, K

Warwick: 2-5, 2 K, SB

Witherspoon: 3.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K

Coming Up Next: The Flying Tigers lead the series 2-1 heading into a 6:30 p.m. ET matchup on Friday.

FCL Tigers 4, FCL Phillies 2 (box)

20-year-old Jack Bushell, another of the Tigers’ Australian pitching contingent alongside Ali Tanner, went through the Phillies like an angry weedeater in this one, striking out 10 and allowing just a solo shot in five innings of work.

Angel de los Santos, a fast-rising 19-year-old shortstop prospect, mashed a three-run shot in the fifth that was the decisive blow in this one.

Just as nice to see was the return of SS/2B Franyerber Montilla. The 21-year-old slick fielding switch hitter blew out his ACL last July, and this was the first we heard about his status. He went 0-1 with two walks and scored a run. He’ll need some time to build up, but my guess would be West Michigan is his final destination, playing second base alongside Bryce Rainer.

De Los Santos: 1-2, R, 3 RBI, HR, BB, K

Steven Madero: 1-3, R, RBI, 2B, K

Bushell (W, 1-1): 5.0 IP, ER, H, 0 BB, 10 K

ESPN | Enrique Rojas: The Red Sox sit in last place in the division, and even though the last Wild Card slot is currently held by the .500 Texas Rangers, there isn’t much faith in Fenway making a push to contend this year. Plenty of people expect Boston to be sellers, and they have a few short-term rentals that could entice some good returns including their closer, Aroldis Chapman, who is miraculously in the best form of his career despite now being 38 years old.

Chapman knows he’s on the trading block, and could expect to be in a different uniform by the deadline, but there’s one particular jersey he wouldn’t want to put on again unless his conditions were met. He said he would want an apology from the team, more specifically Brian Cashman, for how his Yankees tenure ended before he could feel comfortable playing for them again. This may come as a surprise to anyone who was following the team when he last played here, because that 2022 season burned every ounce of remaining goodwill the closer had with the fanbase — after years of underperformance in the playoffs and routine stretches of blowing games by not coming close to finding the strike zone, Chapman went and got a tattoo midseason that got infected forcing the team to sit him on the IL and all but handed the closer gig over to Clay Holmes. Then at the end of the year, Chapman got left off the postseason roster when he missed a mandatory practice before the ALDS.

Frankly, the Sox would never trade Chapman over to their archrivals in the first place so this is a moot point, but I also wouldn’t want him to ever come back even if he is pitching lights out nowadays and I certainly don’t think Cashman owes Chapman any sort of apology. I hardly think I’d be alone in that belief.

NY Post | Greg Joyce: The Yankees are heading north of the border to Toronto for the first time this season, and thus also returning for the first time since their brutal ALDS games last year. The team may be without Aaron Judge in the lineup for the foreseeable future, but their rotation looks to be significantly better than when they traveled up and got shelled for 23 runs in two games. They’re also facing a Blue Jays team that is much further out of the race than the last time they made their initial trip up, as last year’s first meeting was the turning point that gave Toronto a division lead that wouldn’t get relinquished following a four-game sweep.

NY Daily News | Gary Phillips: There was some friendly tomfoolery at the ballpark on Wednesday, as Cody Bellinger was subjected to a professional heckler. The content creator Trevor Gilmore has a dedicated page to heckling the road team’s left fielder with some ultimately harmless jokes alongside playfully calling them a bum, and he gets invited by several MLB teams to come and run his schtick for them with Cleveland happening to be his latest appearance. Bellinger said that he heard the chants loud and clear, but had fun with it and noted that he had some good lines.

MLB.com | Henry Palattella: Paul Goldschmidt entered this season expecting a part-time role for the first time in his lengthy career, and he openly embraced the role of the veteran backup. He kept himself productive enough in the first month and change of the season, but once injuries began to mount in the lineup and his name started appearing regularly in the lineup again he showed that there was no rust on the seven-time All-Star’s bat. He’s had a hot May and carried it over into June, hitting for a .924 OPS with seven homers and 23 RBI in 31 games played, and even though some of the regulars are set to return soon having a productive Goldy who can stay ready whether he’s sitting for days on end or has to play a week straight will be vital to this team staying in a rhythm offensively.

Good

Rejected

Back

Introduction

Fifty Six years ago on this day Dock Ellis, a 25 year old right handed starting pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates, tossed a no hitter against the San Diego Padres. This wouldn’t normally warrant a full article, especially a no hitter where said pitcher walked eight batters and hit one, but you’ve already read the title, so I’ll just let Dock tell the story in his own words first, since he was a far better story teller than I ever will be.

The Doubters

Apparently there are people out there who don’t think this story happened, among them Pirates beat reporter Les Biederman who was AT the game. Biederman pokes holes in Dock’s story, noting that Ellis arrived on time, and didn’t look like he was under the influence. None of his teammates in that game have corroborated the story either, most notably Willie Stargill, the offensive hero of the game. To put it politely, Dock Ellis was quite the storyteller and some have suggested it is just that, a story. I however am not swayed by most of the arguments that have been made suggesting that this outright didn’t happen.

Context is Important and Addicts Are Unreliable Narrators

First off, I think it’s important to point out the context of when this happened, and when this story became public, which was long after the fact. Dock Ellis was a 25 year old in active addiction when this happened. He told this story decades later after sobering up, and later admitted that his biggest regret in life was not being able to remember his greatest personal achievement in pro sports. Having had my own struggled well over a decade ago, I know the struggles of addiction and the pain in Ellis’ voice when discussing it is very real and relatable, and it’s enough for me to believe that some version of his story happened. As far as Ellis not being late for the game, I am sure in his mind Ellis though he was super late, you have to remember that this is someone under the effects of multiple drugs. LSD messes with your perception of time, it can make you very paranoid, but most importantly it makes you a very, very unreliable narrator.

“But Wesley! That still sounds like lying to me!”

The only lying going so far are the lies by omission, that only someone who is familiar enough with the substances mentioned could catch.

Ellis, D wasn’t on just LSD

This is a bit of a side point, but as someone with ADHD, I would be shocked if Dock Ellis wasn’t self medicating for ADHD, considering all the stimulants he used, and the fact that he struggled to pitch without them. getting back to the main point though, Ellis wasn’t just on LSD, he was on a bunch of stimulants as well as a barbituate. Dexamyl was a combination of the active ingredient in the ADHD medication Dexidrine, and a barbituate tranquilizer, which later was taken off the market due to abuse, and being phased out by more effective Benzodiazapines. The other stimulant medication mentioned is literally just amphetamine, which is also a component of the ADHD medication Adderall. Having friends in both the EDM and the Jam Band/wook scene, I have been told that mixing ADHD meds won’t affect the intensity of a trip or its duration, but what will affect the intensity and effect of an LSD trip is repeatedly dosing yourself for multiple days in a row, which usually just results in a higher tolerance and bum vibes on the last day of EDC. Ellis described using LSD throughout his days off. So Doc’s trip is not off to a great start just from those f.actors. Having taken his dosage at noon, he’d be feeling the affects by one, and by first pitch he would be on the back end of the peak effects, considering LSD lasts roughly 10-12 hours. Even if we account for this being 1970 LSD, which by all consensus was way way too strong, Doc wouldn’t have been tripping his balls off by the end of the game. Regardless of how strong any visual effects were, his performance would still likely have been affected due to one common physiological side affect of LSD though, excessive sweating from the palms. There’s no reason to believe that it would actually interfere enough with his in game performance to actually be all that noticeable, or for it to prevent him from playing, especially a starting pitcher.

Ellis wasn’t himself in that game

Dock Ellis threw multiple complete games in his 1970 season, and in none of those games did he struggle with his control like he did in his no hitter. This is a guy who had BB/9 of 3,9 that season and that includes his eight walks in that game. Take the walks from that game out of his stats and I’d imagine his BB/9 drops down to close to 3 walks per nine innings. So here’s a starting pitcher with otherwise decent control, suddenly walking batters at twice his normal rate. Dock would hit batters on occasion, but usually it was on purpose. Ellis was also usually a fairly good hitter; that season he had 10 hits, including a double, a walk, and a stolen base. Keyword usually, as Ellis was hitless, striking out twice. Having worse control as a pitcher, a bad day at the plate, yet somehow still throwing a no hitter is actually exactly how I’d expect LSD to affect an athlete.

Final points

As far as the lack of corroboration from teammates goes, specifically Willie Stargill, I understand completely why he would remain silent. Willie Stargill was involved in the cocaine scandals of the 1980s, I doubt he would want to comment on it for that reason alone. The beat reporter not noticing ‘Ellis being on something’ means very little when this was an addict in active addiction, and when said beat reporter likely had very little familiarity with the substance in question. Unless you know what you’re looking for, you’re not going to notice. (for a great example, look at the creators of South Park when they went to the Oscars on LSD. None of the media noticed or said anything, but in hindsight it is also VERY obvious) Sadly, we don’t have the full game footage, only the final inning, so we can’t examine the game itself for further evidence.

Conclusion

Dock Ellis was a great pitcher, and he deserves to be remembered for more than just his famous feat. He was one of the first athlete activists. He was a great motivational speaker after he got sober, and he used his stories both to help people in recovery, and to hopefully help others avoid making the same mistakes he made. I highly recommend finding ‘No No: A Dockumentary’ which is a fantastic full length documentary exploring more than just Ellis’ no hitter, but his entire life. I think most importantly, it goes over the things Dock was famous for prior to this story taking a life of its own, like in the scene I’ve included below.

So just to conclude things, maybe in reality, this didn’t happen exactly as Dock Ellis described it, but in my heart, I’ll always believe it did.

Iowa Cubs

The Iowa Cubs got battered by the Louisville Bats (Reds), 20-3. It’s the second-straight game Iowa gave up 20 runs.

Starter Connor Noland got the loss after allowing four runs on six hits over four innings. Noland neither walked nor struck anyone out.

Casey Opitz gave up three runs and allowed three inherited runners to score as part of an 11-run bottom of the eighth. But cut the I-Cubs third-string catcher a break—he was pitching on back-to-back nights.

Shortstop Scott Kingery hit a two-run home run in the seventh inning. He was 2 for 4.

Center fielder Kevin Alcántara went 2 for 5 with an RBI double in the fourth inning.

First baseman BJ Murray went 2 for 3 with two walks and scored on Alcántara’s double.

Rigth fielder Justin Dean was 2 for 5 with a double.

The Jaguar’s double.

Kingery’s first home run of the year.

Knoxville Smokies

The Knoxville Smokies cooked the Montgomery Biscuits (Rays), 14-5.

Starter Dawson Netz gave up four runs in the third inning on two home runs, a solo home run and then a three-run shot. Netz finished the night giving up four runs on four hits over 3.1 innings. He walked four and struck out three.

Tyler Ras went the next 3.2 innings, did not allow a run and went home with the win. Ras allowed three hits. He struck out four and walked one. Ras, whom the Cubs signed this past winter after the Rockies released him, has a 1.72 ERA and 34 strikeouts in 31.1 innings with Knoxville.

Right fielder Alex Ramírez hit a solo home run in the eighth inning. It was his fifth on the campaign. Ramírez finished 1 for 5.

Shortstop Jefferson Rojas was 3 for 5 with three RBI and one run scored. He was also hit by a pitch. Rojas is hitting .350 in the month of June.

DH Owen Ayers isn’t slowing down. Tonight he was 3 for 4 with a walk and a hit by pitch. He scored once and drove in one.

Center fielder Karson Simas went 2 for 4 with two walks and a steal. Simas scored three runs.

Second baseman Hayden Cantrelle was 2 for 3 with two walks. Cantrelle had three RBI and two runs scored.

Left fielder Carter Trice went 2 for 6 with a double and a two-run single.

A two-run single for Rojas.

A two-run single by Rojas plus an error scores three.

The Ramírez home run.

South Bend Cubs

The South Bend Cubs were blown away by the Peoria Chiefs (Cardinals), 16-7 in a game that ended in the seventh inning after a tornado warning.

Cole Reynolds got rocked for eight runs on five hits over the first 3+ innings. Reynolds walked three, hit one batter and struck out one.

DH Drew Bowser hit his fourth home run of the year in the second inning with two men on. Bowser was 2 for 3 with a double and the home run.

First baseman Josiah Hartshorn continues to impress. Tonight he hit an RBI single in the third inning and a two-run home run in the fifth. It was Hartshorn’s sixth home run in just 15 games in South Bend and 11th overall. Hartshorn went 2 for 3 and scored twice.

Catcher Miguel Useche was 2 for 3 with one RBI and one run scored.

Wisconsin’s doubleheader was rained out, so South Bend’s magic number remains at three to clinch a first-half title.

Bowser’s home run.

RBI singles for Hartshorn and Useche.

We need to find a nickname for Hartshorn. Here’s his home run. Admittedly it was a fat pitch, but he didn’t miss it.

Myrtle Beach Pelicans

The Myrtle Beach Pelicans were four under par against the Augusta GreenJackets (Braves), 11-7.

Starter Noah Edders allowed four runs over four innings, but only one of the four runs was earned. Edders surrendered four hits (one of which was a solo home run) and one walk. He struck out a career-high eight.

Henry Cone relieved Edders, pitched the next three innings and got the win. Cone gave up one run on three hits. He walked three and struck out three.

First baseman Michael Carico clubbed a two-run home run in the fifth inning, his fifth on the year. Carico sent 3 for 4 with a double and the home run. He had four total runs batted in and scored twice.

Third baseman Derniche Valdez then went back-to-back with Carico with his fourth home run of 2026. Valdez was 2 for 4 with a double and the home run.

Center fielder Darlyn De Leon was 2 for 4 with four stolen bases. He scored twice. De Leon had five steals all season before tonight.

Catcher Logan Poteet drove in three runs with a two-run double and a bases-loaded walk. He finished the night 1 for 4 with the walk and the run scored.

Left fielder Edward Vargas went 2 for 4 and scored once.

Highlights.

ACL Cubs

Lost to the Giants, 5-0.

Last week, I sent two condolence cards and a “congratulations on your new baby” card. This afternoon, while distracted by a flock of teenage goslings, half-grown and ugly as all get out, I tripped over the corpse of what used to be some sort of creature. Life doesn’t need to dabble in subtleties, it beats you over the head repeatedly, hollering “What is the point?” in alternatingly thoughtful and abrasive tones.

As I was once again turning over the well-worn Meaning of Life stone, Cole Young opened the game with a leadoff home run and for two innings that one run mattered significantly as Bryan Woo sat down the first six Orioles he faced. Shortly after Aaron Goldsmith mooed in the bottom of the third, that one run mattered even more, as it kept the Mariners tied with the O’s after Colton Cowser’s solo shot. Soon though, Young’s swooping scoop of a home run felt inconsequential at best as Baltimore showcased one of the Big Innings that has been their trademark this season, piling on six runs just about every way you can – singles, a wild pitch, a double, another home run. 

Before all that, though, there was a 3-2 pitch to Gunnar Henderson. Coby Mayo had flown out after Cowser, and while Jackson Holliday and Taylor Ward had hit back-to-back singles, Henderson has had a miserable season at the plate. Hope beat its bedraggled little wings and Woo pumped a 98.7 MPH four-seamer right on the inside edge of the plate. It matched a 3-2 pitch he threw to Cody Bellinger on July 10, 2025 as the fastest pitch he’s ever thrown. Bellinger rolled over on the offering, grounding into a double play; Henderson fouled it off. Ball four was an easy take, and within seconds that career-high velocity didn’t matter at all.

In the top of the fourth, Randy Arozarena walked, which was nice but anticlimactic amidst a five-run deficit. But then Luke Raley homered, and Dom Canzone homered, and this time when Colt Emerson walked it was invigorating. Young, en route to a three-hit night, singled, Julio Rodríguez singled, and the Mariners were suddenly only trailing by one. 

When it comes to meaning, baseball is a chorus of perpetual dissonance. For those of us outside, the wins and the losses do not technically matter; our careers, our finances, our relationships don’t change in response to victory or defeat. But I don’t think any of us would be here, reading these ramblings, if baseball was meaningless to us. In fact, my career, my finances, my relationships are all fundamentally altered because of this game. Not by the Mariners’ record, fortunately, but in the way that I have chosen to care about it, to jam its stake into the ground and let my life grow up and intertwine with it. In our massive, yawning abyss of a world, there is such beauty and freedom and silliness in choosing to structure some of life’s meaning around this game.

At some point around the sixth inning, lightning split the sky and rain started to soak the field. Maybe, after all this, none of it would actually matter, at least for today? But the rain abated, the Mariners could not score anymore, and they leave Baltimore with a series split. Just one of many games that matters because it happened, and also not at all.

Red Sox president Sam Kennedy is not impressed with his team’s season so far.

During an interview with WEEI on Thursday, Kennedy eviscerated the Red Sox, calling the team’s season “embarrassing and unacceptable”

“There’s no way to sugarcoat it,” Kennedy told WEEI. “It’s been awful, especially when you consider the stated goal of building upon what happened last season. … It’s been incredibly frustrating, and I just want to acknowledge that right at the outset. It’s on all of us. We have to get better.”

The Red Sox entered Thursday sitting at the bottom of the AL East with a 27-39 record, 5½ games behind the final wild card spot.

Throughout Boston’s season-long slump, they fired skipper Alex Cora and four members of his coaching staff in an attempt to create a spark.

Hitting coach Peter Fatse, bench coach Ramon Vazquez, third base coach Kyle Hudson and assistant hitting coach Dillon Lawson were all let go.

Chad Tracy has since taken over as interim manager, but hasn’t been able to incite much change.

With the coaching staff change failing, many have turned to chief baseball officer Craig Breslow as the target of criticism.

Kennedy, however, promised Breslow is “working as hard as anybody in terms of getting things back on track.”

“Look, I fully understand and appreciate questions regarding Craig Breslow and his job security and all that, but the issue of a change there, just to be clear, that’s not even on the table,” Kennedy said.

As the Aug. 3 trade deadline approaches, Kennedy noted that unless the play improves in the next few weeks, the Red Sox will likely look to move on from a few players.

“At the current moment, there are a lot of discussions going on in terms of improvement and how we get this thing back on track, looking at every single area of the roster and player personnel, and Bres(low) and his team are doing that,” Kennedy said.

“But look, let’s be honest, unless things change dramatically, we may have to pivot here from what our initial planning was. It just, it wouldn’t be responsible to do otherwise.”

No one seems to have much of an idea when Luis Robert Jr. might return from the back injury that landed him on the 60-day IL. 

“It’s not an ideal situation,’’ Carlos Mendoza said of the uncertainty surrounding the outfielder, who was plagued by lower-body injuries with the White Sox the past two seasons before suffering a lumbar spine disc herniation in April. 

“It’s his first time dealing with something like this,’’ the manager said Thursday as the Mets beat the Cardinals 5-4 at Citi Field. 

Asked Thursday if he could need surgery to repair the injury, Robert said through an interpreter he didn’t believe that would be the case. 

Robert, acquired from Chicago in the offseason in return for Luisangel Acuña and minor league pitcher Truman Pauley, said he expected to be back at some point later this season. 

The 28-year-old Robert, now three years removed from his All-Star form with the White Sox, expects to begin running within the next week. He’s only advanced to playing catch and hitting in the cage. 

“I’ve been able to do a little bit of everything — just slowly,’’ Robert said through an interpreter. “I expect to come back. Honestly, in the beginning, when I first got hurt, I didn’t think it would take so long [to recover]. But, obviously, it’s a new injury and as the days went on, it started getting worse.” 

Mendoza added, “It’s hard to tell what he’s dealing with and how soon he’s gonna be back. That’s always frustrating when you’re talking about a player with that kind of talent. He’s just having a hard time staying on the field for one thing or another.” 

The Mets designed a plan in spring training to try to shield him from previous injuries, only for a new one to surface. 

With Robert out, A.J. Ewing has emerged as a bit of a bright spot in center, where he’s stood out defensively and shown potential at the plate. 

Robert was part of the risky roster makeover during the offseason, which has so far failed to yield results, as Jorge Polanco has also dealt with injury issues and Bo Bichette has slumped for almost the entire season. 

Bichette did hit his sixth homer of the season Thursday, a two-run shot in the first. He had been hitless in his previous 10 at-bats and hadn’t homered since he went deep twice May 19. 

Christian Scott’s velocity was down a bit and he allowed a career-high three homers in just 4 ²/₃ innings.

He and the Mets were pleased, though, with how he recovered and retired 10 of 13 batters before a Jordan Walker single knocked him out of the game in the fifth. 

“I got punched in the mouth and then I punched them in the mouth,” Scott said of his comeback from the early struggles. 

The Mets hope Kodai Senga’s rehab stint continues smoothly after it was interrupted by the ulnar nerve irritation in his upper right arm that caused him to be scratched at Double-A Binghamton on Tuesday. … In more bullpen shuffling, right-hander Daniel Duarte was recalled from Triple-A Syracuse, while another righty, Jonathan Pintaro was optioned to Syracuse on Thursday.