Mariners Reacts Survey: Vote Navy Blue No Matter Who

Jun 16, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (29), second from right, and third baseman J.P. Crawford, second from right, celebrate after a game against the Baltimore Orioles at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images | Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images

Author’s Note: This post contains sponsored content from FanDuel Sportsbook

Well, as is typical, I spoke too soon. Jhonny Pereda has been demoted back to Triple-A; it seems the Mariners are committing 100% to Garver, which I can respect, but at the same time, it’s like, why not go with the hot hand? Unless Garver has some remarkably strong relationship with the pitching staff, which I doubt, I’m a little confused as to why they keep running him out there. Seems like the majority of you agree with me:

Clearly, Pereda has captured the hearts of Mariners fans everywhere, but heart alone isn’t enough, and play apparently isn’t either, so I guess it’s vibes-based. Considering the results over the past few seasons, I can’t exactly disagree with the success of the strategy. Who knows, maybe Garver is going to give a Jayson Hayward-type rain delay speech in the World Series and inspire the Mariners to victory.

But let’s stop the roster construction talk for a bit. With the midpoint of the season coming up, voting has already opened for the Midsummer Classic, the MLB All-Star Game. All-Star week is always a fun time for players to reset and get back on track, accept their flowers for fantastic first-half performances, and capture bragging rights over the guys in the other league. Now, as we all know, every team gets one representative, while some teams send just one guy who’s been playing at a mildly above-average level; others have such a plethora of talent that they have the opprotunity to send multiple players. While the Mariners have struggled, they still have had several standout performances so far this season. Obviously, you can vote for Mariners all up and down the ballot, but what I want to hear from you all is who you would most like to see in the All-Star Game from the Mariners? Not necessarily the obvious pick, but who you would love to see rep the Mariners at the Midsummer Classic.

Speaking of voting, I know some people at LL already do this (including me), but do you always vote for all Mariners on your ballot, or do you mix it up? Personally, I always do a few All-Mariners ballots and then some where I try to vote for who I actually think deserves to be an All-Star. But I’d like to know how you do it- all Mariners, all the way, mixed and matched, or just pure hateraid and ignoring the boys in Navy Blue altogether? Let us know your thoughts through the poll and comments below!

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Mariners fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

The Wrigley Field night game ordinance is outdated and should be repealed

Last week, I wrote this article proposing that the Cubs match a lot of other teams and move all their night game start times to 6:40 p.m. Currently, the Cubs have that starting time for night games in April, May and September, and begin night contests at 7:05 p.m. in June, July and August.

Now, I’d like to go a step further. Night baseball began at Wrigley Field in 1988, but not until after some contentious negotiations with groups in the neighborhood around the ballpark. An ordinance was passed at that time by the city of Chicago limiting the number of night games to 18 per year. That ordinance was amended in 2002, raising the limit to 30, with additional night games allowed for national TV purposes. Night games were prohibited on Fridays and Saturdays, again with national TV exceptions — though the team has hosted night concerts at Wrigley on those days, and functionally there is no difference between a night baseball game and night concert, it’s still 40,000 people in the neighborhood, lights on, crowd noise (and obviously, loud music on concert nights). Typically there are now 35-40 night events at Wrigley Field each year, more if the Cubs make the postseason (postseason games are exempt from the ordinance limits). Last year the Cubs played two postseason games at night, the two in the division series vs. the Brewers. The wild card series games vs. the Padres were all day games.

It’s now 38 years since baseball under the lights was first played at the Friendly Confines. The neighborhood has changed and adapted to games being played at night. I’d say, without researching in detail, that the overwhelming majority of people living near Wrigley Field now were not living there in 1988.

This topic came up again because of what happened at the Mumford and Sons concert at Wrigley Field last week. The event was delayed several hours because of severe thunderstorms in the Chicago area. It didn’t begin until after 10:30 p.m. and ended at about 12:30 a.m., which is 90 minutes past the usual time limit on concerts. Per this Block Club Chicago article, the band was subject to “heavy fines” (about $45,000, according to the article) for going so long — but more importantly, the article indicates that at least some neighbors didn’t mind the late ending:

“I don’t care,” said Diane Chaney, who has lived on the 3700 block of Sheridan Avenue Wrigley for nearly seven years. “We knew going into this that we’re going to have noise when we move here. Anybody who moves here and thinks it’s going to be a nice, quiet place is delusional.”

Neil Barron, a Cubs season ticket holder who lives in an apartment on the 3700 block of Wilton Avenue, said the occasional late night comes with the territory.

“The stadium was here first,” Barron said. “I chose to be here.”

On Thursday night, Barron pulled up a chair and sat on his front lawn to listen to the Mumford show. That’s one of the perks of living so close to the stadium, he said.

Jarrett Prizel, who moved into the neighborhood less than a week ago, said he barely noticed the concert itself from his apartment at 3800 Grace Street and only heard some of the fireworks.

“If you move into an area like this, you kind of know what you’re getting yourself into,” Prizel said. “Last night was a little bit different because of the rain, but that’s just part of it.”

(Note: The writer probably meant somewhere around the 800 block of Grace Street. 3800 Grace would be several miles west of Wrigley Field. And “Sheridan Avenue Wrigley” … that’s not a thing. The writer probably meant Sheridan Road.)

These comments are 100 percent different from what neighbors were saying in 1988. This is likely because, as those three people noted, they knew exactly where they were moving and what was in the neighborhood before they lived there. I’d guess those comments reflect the views of most of the community.

And so I am going to propose here that the city of Chicago repeal the night-game ordinance and allow the Cubs to play as many night games as they choose. The ordinance, nearly four decades old, has outlived any usefulness it once had.

Playing more night games would help the team, allowing them more rest, as many other teams have. Here’s a list of the number of home night games played by all 30 MLB teams in 2025. 2026 data, obviously, is incomplete, but it’s likely to be similar. As I noted in last week’s article, the Cubs will play 39 home night games this year.

2025 home night games, by team
RkTeamSeasonG
1LAA202563
2LAD202562
3HOU202560
4ATL202559
5ATH202559
6SEA202556
7TEX202556
8ARI202554
9CLE202554
10PHI202554
11TBR202554
12SDP202553
13NYY202552
14CIN202550
15STL202550
16COL202549
17KCR202549
18MIL202549
19BOS202548
20PIT202548
21BAL202547
22NYM202547
23SFG202547
24CHW202545
25DET202545
26TOR202545
27MIA202544
28MIN202544
29WSN202538
30CHC202532

The average number of home night games played by the other 29 teams in 2025 was 51. This number has been fairly constant for teams other than the Cubs over the last 30-40 years — about 50-55 home night games per year. Last year the Cubs played 55 night games on the road. Overall the 2025 Cubs were 42-31 (.575) in day games and 50-39 (.562) at night, not that much different. It split up this way:

Home: 29-20 in day games, 21-11 in night games
Road: 14-12 in day games, 28-27 in night games

The home figure, though, seems significant.

Also, overall the Cubs have been better in night games at home than in day games since the lights went on in August 1988. According to BCB’s JohnW53, the team’s winning percentage in home day games since then is .527 (1,061 wins, 953 losses), while in home night games it’s .536 (522 wins, 452 losses). The percentage difference isn’t huge — the equivalent of two wins over a 162-game season — but that’s not nothing, either.

The most night games the Cubs have played in Wrigley Field in a single season is 41, in 2022. This year they have played 18 to date, winning 10, losing eight. There will be 21 more, for a total of 39, as noted above.

Now, I am aware that the Cubs have made “Friday 1:20” an iconic thing, generally the only team playing on Friday afternoons. Those could stay with a change in the ordinance, with the exception of any Friday home game that would come immediately after a Thursday night road game (there are no such transitions this year, though there is a Friday afternoon 1:20 game Aug. 14 vs. the Cardinals, after a Thursday 3:05 CT start in Washington, which is a fairly tight turnaround). The Cubs are also unlikely to change Wednesday or Thursday afternoon getaway day contests to night games; most teams do this. Thus any increase in night games would likely come from adding Saturdays, which are currently not allowed by ordinance. Maybe that adds 10 or so night games, possibly getting the Cubs to between 45 and 50 home night games.

This isn’t the 1980s anymore. Wrigleyville has changed. The city should change, too, and repeal the outdated Wrigley Field night-game ordinance.

Time for you to weigh in. Note! I’m not giving you a “I’d like fewer night games” choice because that ship has sailed — around 35 night games a year is going to be the minimum.

MLB Expert Picks: Baseball Predictions for June 18

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  • UPDATE: Added another MLB pick

Friday Jr. is here, and we have a handful of more MLB expert picks with baseball on throughout the day.

Our MLB analysts have scoured the board to find the best place, including backing the New York Mets as slight underdogs against the Phillies.

Find out why in the MLB picks for June 18 below!

MLB expert picks for today

PickOdds
Josh Inglis Josh Inglis: Angels vs. Athletics - Over 10.5+113
Jon Metler Jon Metler: Twins ML-117
Neil Parker Neil Parker: Phillies ML-113
Joe Osborne Joe Osborne: Mets ML+104

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Angels vs Athletics - Over 10.5

Price: 47¢ (+113) at Polymarket

If you're going to give us totals this low in Sacramento, I'm going to keep betting the Over until this number gets back to where it was during the Colorado series, when totals climbed as high as 14.5.

The Over cashed again last night on a similar number, and THE BAT is projecting 11.75 runs once again today. It's not 90 degrees at Sutter Health Park, but there are 12-mph winds blowing out to center field, and this remains, by far, the best park for runs and home runs on the board, per Ballpark Pal.

The Los Angeles Angels are rolling with a bullpen day, and the Athletics own the worst bullpen ERA in baseball over the last two weeks. Runs could come from either side at any point in this series opener

  • Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
  • How to watch: NBCS-California, Athletics.TV

Jon Metler's expert pick: Twins moneyline

Price: 54¢ (-117) at Polymarket

Let's call it what it is: this is a bet on Joe Ryan.

Ryan has quietly established himself as one of the better starters in the American League, and with the trade deadline approaching, he'll have plenty of motivation to continue building his value.

His success starts with a four-seam fastball that he throws at a high rate. While the pitch doesn't overwhelm hitters with pure velocity — it sits around 94 mph — its unique release point creates a flat, rising trajectory that makes it extremely difficult for hitters to track and square up consistently.

That pitch should be particularly effective against the heart of the Texas Rangers' lineup, especially right-handed hitters like Wyatt Langford, Josh Jung, and Jake Burger

If Ryan can neutralize that group, it's fair to wonder where Texas will generate enough offense to win this game. At the current price, I'm willing to back the better starting pitcher. I make the Minnesota Twins closer to 58-cent favorites in this matchup.

  • Time: 2:35 p.m. ET
  • How to watch: Monumental, RSN

Neil Parker's expert pick: Phillies moneyline

Price: 53¢ (-113) at Polymarket

While it hasn’t been pretty for Philadelphia Phillies veteran Aaron Nola, his underlying 3.49 xFIP at home is impressive, and Philly ranks 11th in wOBA and sixth in ISO at Citizens Bank Park.

So, with the New York Mets sporting respective 29th- and 26th-ranked marks on the highway, I’m expecting Nola to pitch well enough for the Phillies to pull away.

New York lefty Sean Manaea will be making just his second start of the year, and the Philadelphia bullpen paces the majors in xFIP this season and across the past 30 days to close out the game behind Nola.

  • Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
  • How to watch: NBCS-Philadelphia, SNY

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Mets moneyline

Price: 49¢ (+104) at Polymarket

Sean Manaea appears to have found his groove, posting a 3.33 ERA over his last eight appearances, and now he gets the start against a Philadelphia Phillies lineup that ranks a brutal 25th in OPS against southpaws over the last month.

On the other side, Aaron Nola looks — quite simply — washed, carrying a 5.86 ERA this season and a 6.21 mark at home. The New York Mets have hit him well historically, enter with the hotter offense, and could also benefit from a potentially taxed Phillies bullpen after the team used eight different pitchers yesterday.

  • Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
  • How to watch: SNY, NBCS-Philadelphia

More MLB best bets for today

PickOdds
Guardians moneyline+129
Read analysis in our Guardians vs. Phillies predictions
White Sox +1.5-140
Read analysis in our White Sox vs. Yankees predictions
Athletics moneyline-135
Read analysis in our Angels vs. Athletics predictions

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Bo Diddly: Phillies vs. Mets series preview

May 23, 2026; Miami, Florida, USA; New York Mets shortstop Bo Bichette (19) reacts after his at bat against the Miami Marlins during the sixth inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

It seems odd that we’re in mid-June and the Phillies and Mets haven’t played each other yet in 2026. While I’m a fan of schedule diversity and having every team play each other throughout the season, it also seems wrong that you can go almost three months into the season without seeing one of your division rivals.

Like the Phillies, the Mets spent most of April finding new ways to lose baseball games. While they’ve been better since then, playoff contention feels like a longshot at this point. They’re still mired in last place, and while one of their ballyhooed offseason pickups has seemingly turned his season around, it hasn’t been enough to get the Mets out of last place.

Opposition research: Bo Bichette

There has been much frustration about the Phillies not adding to their lineup, specifically, an impact righthanded bat. But it should be considered that the player most people wanted to fill that role was Bo Bichette.

Back in January, Bichette and the Phillies seemed like a good match. The two-time All-Star would have likely slotted in the Phillies’ lineup behind Bryce Harper and presumably provided 20+ HR power out of the cleanup spot. But as we know, the Mets swooped in to give Bichette a contract that he couldn’t pass up.

For most of the season, it appeared as if the Mets saved the Phillies from adding another long-term albatross contract to the pile. Bichette struggled badly out of the gate and became somewhat emblematic of the Mets’ struggles as a whole. At the end of May, he had an OPS of .583 and seemed miserable.

Perhaps he wouldn’t have performed as poorly in Philadelphia, but if he had signed here and similarly bombed, it would have felt demoralizing to have replaced Alec Bohm with a somehow worse and more expensive player.

Surprisingly, while he was hitting poorly, he graded out well on defense. He was a bad defensive shortstop, and most expected him to continue to be bad after moving to third base, but he seems to have taken a liking to the hot corner.

It seemed doubtful that Bichette would continue to hit so poorly, and sure enough, he’s been one of the best hitters in baseball in June. (One of the reasons why I wish the Phillies could have played the Mets earlier in the season.)

It looks like Bichette is planning to opt-out of his contract after the season. Considering Bohm is a pending free agent, and Aidan Miller might never swing a bat again, the Phillies will likely have a gaping hole at the hot corner for 2027. It’s very possible that come the offseason, the Phillies may offer Bichette another long-term contract, and this time, he might take them up on it.

Remembering a guy who played for both teams

Todd Zeile was a top ten prospect for the St. Louis Cardinals in the early 1990s, but he never reached stardom in the major leagues. In his 16-year career, he never made an All-Star team or received as much as a down-ballot MVP vote. A career OPS of .769 combined with subpar defense paints the picture of one of the most average players to ever take the field. You could win with him, but you were never afraid to find an upgrade either.

The 1996 Phillies were not expected to be good, but they didn’t think that their touted prospect Scott Rolen was quite ready for the majors. So, they signed Zeile as a free agent and had him keep third base warm for Rolen.

Zeile did so with his trademark level of adequacy. He had a .789 OPS and poor defense, and when Rolen was called up in August, he dutifully moved to first base before being sent to the Orioles in an August trade.

Heading into the 2000 season, the Mets were set at third base with Robin Ventura, but they needed a first baseman, so they chose adequacy to fill the need and signed Zeile as a free agent. He had one of the best seasons of his career, helping the Mets make it all the way to the World Series.

Trivia

Last week’s answer: The Phillies won their first game at Miller Park by a score of 10-4. Three hits were delivered by Pat Burrell. Nobody answered correctly.

This week’s question: When the Phillies swept the Mets in a key three-game series in September 2007, a different reliever earned the win in all three games. Name one of them.

Additional thought about the series

Because Lincoln Financial Field is hosting a World Cup game on Friday, we’re getting a Thursday-Saturday-Sunday series which you don’t usually see apart from Opening Day weekend.

There has been much written about the Phillies’ troubles at Citi Field, but the Mets have had their share of trouble in Philadelphia. If you recall, the Mets came into Citizens Bank Park in September 2025 with hopes of making a late playoff push. But a 1-0 loss in the series opener seemed to demoralize them, and they went on to lose the next three games as well.

The Mets were expected to be contenders this season after they had the offseason that a lot of Phillies fans wanted their team to have. But the acquisitions of Bichette and Luis Robert, Jr. have been duds, while Freddy Peralta looks more like his career norm of a mid-rotation starter rather than the All-Star he was in 2025. Combined with injuries and/or underperformance by veteran holdovers Francisco Lindor, Kodai Senga, and David Peterson, it’s been a rough year in New York.

I for one, absolutely hate to see it.

Brewers right-hander Quinn Priester to have season-ending surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome

Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Quinn Priester will undergo season-ending surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome and is expected to be sidelined for eight to 10 months.

Thoracic outlet syndrome is a disorder that occurs when blood vessels or nerves in the space between the collarbone and first rib are compressed. That can lead to neck and shoulder pain, numbness or tingling in the fingers, and arm weakness.

Priester’s thoracic outlet decompression surgery will be performed on Monday in Dallas by surgeon Dr. Gregory Pearl and will involve the removal of the first upper rib on the right side.

Priester said he hopes to compete for a rotation spot next spring.

“After doing all the things that we had gone through to try and fix this problem without surgery, we’ve just kind of gotten to a point where these things aren’t working, so we’re going to get surgery and make sure we clean this up and so that for the rest of my career this isn’t an issue,” Priester said before the Brewers game against Cleveland on Thursday.

The Brewers called Priester back from his minor league rehabilitation assignment on June 12 to evaluate the next steps in his recovery.

“I feel really confident that (I’m) going to come back even better,” Priester said.

Priester was a key cog in the team’s rotation a season ago when he went 13-3 with a 3.32 ERA in 29 appearances, including 24 starts, for a team that made it to the National League Championship Series before losing to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Priester was expected to play a major role again this season in a rotation that so far has been led by hard-throwing Jacob Misiorowski and newcomer Kyle Harrison. Priester has not pitched in the majors this season.

Priester said he wanted “to check every box” before deciding on surgery.

The condition caused considerable control issues during the rehab stints, Priester said.

In five rehab games at Triple-A Nashville, two in Arizona and one at High-A Wisconsin, Priester had a 15.75 ERA and 2.88 WHIP in 16 innings, with 24 walks, 18 strikeouts, four hit batters and six wild pitches.

“When the brain and arm are communicating the right way because of the nerves that are pinching in there, it makes it nearly impossible to actually create a result that’s repeatable,” he said. “It was great that we had gotten the pain to go away with the nerve blocks, but essentially, we couldn’t alleviate all the symptoms.”

Priester said the full recovery time for the surgery is expected to be eight to 10 months, but the 25-year-old is confident he can beat the timeline.

“I’m still a pretty young guy that may be able to make that a little bit quicker, be diligent with the work and be ready to compete for a spot in spring training next year,” Priester said.

Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler underwent a successful thoracic outlet decompression surgery in September 2025 and made an earlier-than-expected return. Wheeler made his debut this season on April 25 and has a 6-1 record with a 2.01 ERA.

MLB Same-Game Parlay Predictions: Our Best SGP Picks for Thursday, June 18

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It's getaway day with an abbreviated nine-game slate with plenty of afternoon action.

We're focusing on the evening schedule with our MLB same-game parlay predictions, including an offensive uptick in Kansas City, and an A's team that can take care of business against the visiting Los Angeles Angels.

Let's dive in with my MLB picks for Thursday, June 18

Today's best MLB SGP picks

Angels vs A's SGP: A's make the grade

I'm a Gage Jump believer. The 23-year-old A's rookie has looked very good through his first four MLB starts, boasting a 3.09 ERA and a 2.50 FIP. He hasn't allowed a home run in 23 innings despite starting a game at Las Vegas Stadium and another at Sutter Health Park. If he can navigate those confines without getting brutalized, the A's will be extremely happy.

He picked up six strikeouts in five innings in his last start, and the Las Angeles Angels have a 24.7% strikeout rate against left-handed hurlers this season (seventh-highest in MLB)

  • Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: ABTV, NBC Sports California

See full analysis of this game in our Angels vs. A's predictions.

Cardinals vs Royals SGP: Lefty-mashers unite!

Kansas City Royals left-hander Noah Cameron and St. Louis Cardinals southpaw Matthew Liberatore get knocked around the park. Cameron's 4.11 ERA isn't terrible, but he isn't missing bats. His one elite area of production is his 87th-percentile walk rate, which only further underlines that he's been too hittable for that decent ERA to be sustainable.

Liberatore's been worse. He gives up hard contact and issues free passes on top of it. I'm avoiding the moneyline on either side because I expect both teams to do enough damage to clear the total.

I'm going chalky with Jordan Walker and Bobby Witt Jr. to clear 1.5 total bases. Walker remains a bat-speed All-Star, which will make life miserable for Cameron, while Witt is simply relentless with his contact, and his .309 expected batting average ranks in the 99th percentile.

  • Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Cardinals.TV, Royals.TV

Mets vs Phillies SGP: Veteran hurlers stumble

Similar to the above handicap, I like the offenses to tee off at Citizens Bank Park tonight against New York Mets lefty Sean Manaea and Philadelphia Phillies veteran Aaron Nola.

Juan Soto has the best matchup score on the night's slate, and Kyle Schwarber isn't far off, per Batter's Box. With wind blowing to right field on a humid night in Philadelphia, according to BallparkPal, both left-handed sluggers are poised to go off. 

I'm focusing on total bases, but both hitters could easily clear the fences based on the matchup-weather combo. I don't love their odds to hit home runs at +203 for Schwarber and +253 for Soto (which makes this SGP +1100 for what it's worth), so I'm taking the safer route with their total bases.

  • Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: NBC Sports Bay Area, BravesVsn

See full analysis of this game in our Mets vs. Phillies predictions.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Dansby Swanson, George Springer, and more hitters it's time to move on from in fantasy baseball

When it comes to fantasy baseball, we're always scouring the waiver wire to see what hitters or pitchers may help our team climb up the standings. We spend less time doing research on who's spot they're going to fill. Today, we change that.

Now that we're in the middle of June, it's time to start having hard conversations about what "safe" players we can drop or try to trade away. Sometimes it's just not a player's year, and we're coming to that point with a few batters, so I created a leaderboard to see which ones it's time to part ways with. Searching from May 1st on (to avoid hot starts and get a sense of recent form), I created a leaderboard with barrel rate, zone contact rate, chase rate, and heart swing rate (swing rate on pitches in the heart of the plate). Then I removed all hitters who were above league average in each category. In my eyes, this gives us a leaderboard of hitters who, over the last six weeks, are not making enough contact in the zone, chasing outside of the zone more than they should, are being too passive on good pitches, and also not making hard contact. If you break it down like that, those are not hitters you want to roster.

I did allow some hitters to qualify in one category, so that we could have a few more earnest discussions about hitters who have been disappointing us so far, and I think we have a pretty solid list, so let's just dive in.

League average marks: Barrel Rate (7.9%), Zone Contact Rate (86.9%), Chase Rate (32.9%), Heart Swing Rate (71.4%)

Hitters to Cut or Trade in Fantasy Baseball

All stats are from May 1st to June 16th to account for recent production

NameRoster%TeamwRC+Barrel%Z-Contact%O-Swing%
Dansby Swanson60%CHC25.709090460.0215050.7928990.304075
Trea Turner98%PHI38.314226280.049180.8984770.416
Chandler Simpson55%TBR47.4301910900.9430890.321705
Nico Hoerner94%CHC48.7289009900.9638550.312
Salvador Perez81%KCR50.275404370.0619470.870130.482385
Carter Jensen38%KCR51.740241390.0744680.8579880.307927
Xander Bogaerts41%SDP56.473323670.06250.8767120.311765
Ezequiel Tovar39%COL63.628646290.0879120.8427670.47557
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.99%TOR69.000867320.0163930.9142860.370879
Steven Kwan49%CLE72.417078400.9752070.21118
Jackson Merrill91%SDP75.001373150.0934580.8768470.33871
Maikel Garcia94%KCR77.356006010.0241940.9411760.264095
George Springer74%TOR82.610256940.0733950.8670210.303621
Brooks Lee34%MIN90.547060790.0468750.9020620.356495
Gunnar Henderson99%BAL91.844497060.0681820.8855720.349246
Mauricio Dubón38%ATL92.804684660.0512820.9108280.425474
Vinnie Pasquantino69%KCR93.779462240.0725810.9308180.317585
Alex Bregman92%CHC94.065954610.0300750.9067360.29064
Ezequiel Duran46%TEX108.80380.0648150.8555560.381215
Brayan Rocchio40%CLE109.55389230.0380950.8451610.345679
Willi Castro35%COL116.1142450.0377360.8681320.382429
Fernando Tatis Jr.99%SDP117.1399430.0793650.8678160.324176
Randy Arozarena98%SEA140.63526720.0810810.7821780.338889

As I mentioned above, some of these hitters are players I would outright cut, and others are ones I would be looking to trade away. There is also a section of players on this list who are likely going to be more valuable in fantasy leagues despite a flawed approach because of their stolen base contributions. Guys like Randy Arozarena, Brayan Rocchio, and Fernando Tatis Jr. have all stolen at least nine bases since May 1st, and all have a wRC+ over 100. You don't need to move on from them in fantasy leagues, but you should be aware that there are some flaws in their profiles (this is even before Arozarena's hamstring injury). For example, Arozarena has a slightly above average 8.1% barrel rate since May 1st, but is making far less contact in the zone than average and chasing outside of the zone more than average. He also has a .358 BABIP (league average is .287) and a 16.7% HR/FB rate (11.7% is league average. Yes, he's hitting .292 since May 1st, but that's likely a fluke given his extreme BABIP luck. You don't HAVE to trade him away, but if you can get good value in a deal, his recent production is likely to decline.

We know the concerns around Fernando Tatis Jr. all season, and his 7.9% barrel rate since May 1st is just league average. He's also been league-average in zone contact and chase rate, so the approach is average. He's sporting a .299 average over this span, but also has an inflated .363 BABIP. He has a .322 career mark, so this isn't egregious, but it's higher than we'd expect. He also has just two home runs in this 40-game span, so I still don't know that you're getting tons in a trade for him, and I doubt anybody is trading for Brayan Rocchio, but he has just a 3.8% barrel rate in this 38-game sample. That also comes with a below-average zone contact rate and a higher-than-average chase rate, while also sporting just a 68% swing rate at pitches in the heart of the zone, below the 71.4% league average mark. You can hold Rocchio for now because he's stealing bases and providing counting stats, but if you're OK in steals, he's certainly a player you can move on from.

A couple of other players you're probably holding onto because you expect to get speed are Chandler Simpson and Nico Hoerner. However, Simpson has three steals in this 37-game sample, and Hoerner has five in his 40 games, so you're not getting the type of production there that you'd hoped for. We know that both players are going to make loads of contact, and their zone contact rates are higher than anybody on this list. They are also two of the only hitters who don't have a single barrel all season. They're both slightly better than league average in chase rate, and both of them are more passive on pitches in the heart of the zone than you'd like to see. If you really need steals, you're not going to drop them, but they are both hitting under .225 in this stretch and not producing many RBIs, given where they hit in the order, so you're not getting anywhere near the production you drafted them for.

A few players are on here because they're rostered in over 35% of leagues, but I don't think they need to be held outside of the deepest formats. Ezequiel Tover, Xander Bogaerts, Brooks Lee, Willi Castro, and Carter Jensen. Jensen may be a surprise because he's an exciting young hitter who just had a five-hit game on Wednesday, but before that game, he was hitting just .197 since May 1st. That comes with a 7.4% barrel rate but a below-average zone contact rate. He's not chasing outside of the zone, and he is attacking pitches over the heart of the plate, so we like to see that, but it almost makes his struggles more concerning because he's still not producing. He's just a two-catcher league option right now, and I might rather have a guy like Endy Rodriguez.

Jensen's teammate, Vinnie Pasquantino, is now injured, but he qualified for this list, and I don't believe he's somebody you need to hold onto as he recovers from his hamate bone fracture.

Lastly, I don't have time to do full deep dives on Trea Turner, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Gunnar Henderson, but they're on this list, so I wanted to address them. You're obviously not cutting any of them; these are players you'd be looking to trade away, and I'm open to exploring deals for all of them. A month ago, I recorded a video on Vlad Jr.'s power outage, and much of that remains the same. He has just three home runs all season and a career-low 6.3% barrel rate and 44.4% hard-hit rate. He's chasing more outside of the zone than he ever has and swinging far more often on pitches in the fringes of the strike zone. Pitchers just aren't challenging him, and there's a really good chance that he doesn't hit 20 home runs this season. On the other hand, Henderson is giving you power but not much else. His launch angle is the highest it's ever been, his fly ball rate is the highest it's ever been, and he's pulling the ball 10% more often than last year. Pair that with the fact that he's chasing more than he has, and I think you have a guy who is too focused on power. I'm also shocked he's already been caught stealing four times after being caught just five times all of last season. I think his fixes are a little easier to make in-season than Vlad Jr.'s.

Lastly, Father Time may be coming for Trea Turner. The 33-year-old hasn't hit a ball 110 mph all season, and the last time that was true was his brief cup of coffee in 2015. His bat speed is the same, but his swing has always been long, and he's now posting the lowest barrel rate and hard-hit rate of his career. Much like the other struggling stars, he's chasing more than he ever has and making less contact than he has in years. Like Hoerner and Simpson, he can still run and could push 30 steals this season, so don't give him away, but I think he winds up with 15 home runs and maybe hits .260 the rest of the way, so that could be production you could replace if you're good in steals and wanted to trade Turner for pitching or power.

Salvador Perez - C/1B, Royals

I have Perez on a few teams this season and, trust me, it feels about as bad as it's looked. Since May 1st, he's hitting .199/.251/.305 with four home runs and 15 RBI. That comes with just a 6.2% barrel rate and 50.3 wRC+. He's making a league-average amount of contact in the zone, but is also chasing out of the zone 48% of the time since May 1st; that's wild. Perez's bat speed is down 1.5 mph, and his average exit velocities are down 1.5 mph on the season as well, giving him the lowest marks of his career. Overall, his barrel rate and hard-hit rate are right around league average, and he's very likely to hit more than 20 home runs again, but maybe he's back down to a 23 home run hitter who will also bat .220 and doesn't draw any walks. With the lineup also struggling around him, there is no way he's getting 100 RBI again and may struggle to even finish with 80. In a one-catcher league, it may actually be OK to move on for somebody like Gabriel Moreno or Francisco Alvarez.

Maikel Garcia - 3B, Royals

Perez's teammate, Maikel Garcia, has also struggled this year and is now battling a hand injury. Over his last 30 games, he’s slashing .263/.317/.333 with no home runs, 15 RBI, and just one steal. He has a nearly 40 percent hard-hit rate over that span, but just an 80 wRC+. He's been dinged up for much of the year, so you'd almost hope he gets sent to the IL so he can get a reset. He's not pulling the ball as much as last year and has taken his passive approach and made it even more passive, with just a 38.9% swing rate, the lowest of his career. That has led to a 23.4% called strike rate, which is one of the highest in the league. I still think Garcia can be a .270-.280 hitter, but he may finish with 10 home runs and is not running like he did the last three seasons. Given those same lineup concerns around him, I think Garcia is a drop in 10-team leagues and really only a fringe roster player in 12-team leagues if you can find 10-15 stolen bases elsewhere, like maybe Bryson Stott, Sam Antonacci, or Luke Keaschall

Dansby Swanson - SS, Cubs

Every projection system, especially the ones that use Statcast data, will tell you that Swanson is a top 10 shortstop, but, at some point, we have to believe what we're seeing. He has the lowest wRC+ since May 1st of any player on this list at 25.7. He's hitting .147/.225/.209 over that span with one home run, five RBI, and 16 runs scored. That comes with a 2.1% barrel rate and 79.3% zone contact rate. He's not swinging outside of the zone too much, and he is attacking pitches in the heart of the strike zone, but he's just doing nothing with them. I also don't think this is about age for the 32-year-old. His bat speed is up. He's hit a ball 110.3 mph this season, which is the hardest of his career, and he's squaring up the ball as much as he did last year. His swing is a bit longer, and he's seeing far more pitches outside of the heart of the strike zone. His zone contact has always been below average, and his swinging strike rate has always been high for a player without elite power, so maybe this was just a matter of time. What we have now is a 32-year-old shortstop who makes less contact in the zone than we want, swings and misses more than we want, does not get good pitches to hit, and does not make solid contact on the good pitches he does get. That seems like a player I'd rather not have on my fantasy team.

Alex Bregman - 3B, Cubs

Swanson's teammate has only been marginally better. Bregman does have a .250/.329/.348 slash line since May 1st, but that comes with three home runs, 23 runs scored, and 11 RBI. It's not great from a fantasy perspective. Since May 1st, he also has just a 3% barrel rate and has been really passive in the zone. He's still making an above-average amount of contact in the zone and not chasing outside of it, but it's his lowest barrel rate since 2020 and his lowest hard-hit rate since 2022. Perhaps we should have seen this as a profile that might not age well. Bregman is a career .270 hitter, but a 6% barrel rate and 38.4% hard-hit rate tell us that he's never made really damaging contact. He just makes a lot of contact. Well, his bat speed is now down over one mph, and he's not getting the ball up in the air as much as before. However, another part of that his ballpark is a terrible fit. Bregman is 64th in baseball with a 23.1% Pull Air rate. In his career, the majority of his home runs have been pulled in the air because he lacks elite exit velocity. Wrigley Field is a bad place for righties to try to hit pulled home runs because of the winds that swirl off Lake Michigan. So Bregman may now be a .250-.260 hitter who's going to hit 15 home runs and not steal many bases while putting up maybe 150 combined HR+RBI. That's probably a profile that fits best in 15-team leagues.

Jackson Merrill - OF, Padres

Merrill is a tough one because I believe in the talent, but, since May 1st, he has just a 75 wRC+ and is hitting .208/.333/.235 with four home runs, 12 runs scored, 12 RBI, and six steals. Now, the home runs and steals aren't bad over a 38-game sample size, and he could easily finish with a 20/20 season, which is obviously valuable. He also has a 9.3% barrel rate since May 1st and a 10.2% one on the year. So why are the results not there? He's making slightly more contact in the zone than league average, chasing basically around the league average rate, and being more aggressive in the heart of the strike zone than average. His exit velocities are up. His bat speed is up. His pull rates and flyball/groundball rates are almost identical to last year. This one doesn't make sense. This feels like a .260-.270 hitter who would go 20/20. Yes, the counting stats aren't what we'd like to see because the Padres are struggling overall, but I think this may be a situation where I'm buying the dip.

Steven Kwan - OF, Guardians

Sometimes we have to remind ourselves that baseball players are human beings who deal with the normal ups and downs of life. Kwan was placed on the Bereavement/Family Medical Emergency List at the end of May, and we still don't know why, as he and the team have kept that issue personal. You get the sense that whatever it is is weighing on Kwan, who has not been the same player this year. He still has an exceptionally short swing and makes tons of contact. He still has basically the same pull rates as before, but is hitting fewer line drives and more ground balls. He's also being far more passive than usual, with his swing rate down to 36%, and he's also swinging at pitches in the heart of the zone 6% less often. Pitchers have also been challenging him with more fastballs, and he's seen 4% more fastballs than he did last year. On top of that, he's attempted just four stolen bases after stealing at least 19 in three of the last four years. Considering he was on your team for batting average and steals, Kwan, sadly, doesn't feel like a player you need to roster right now.

George Springer - OF, Blue Jays

I know Springer seems to be slowly heating up, but he's also hitting just .215/.310/.370 since May 1st. That has come with a 7.3% barrel rate, 86.7% zone contact rate, and 30.3% chase rate, so basically league average in all those areas. Yet, his bat speed is down, his exit velocities are down, and he's squaring the ball up less often than before. He seems to have flattened his bat head a bit more through the strike zone, which could be leading to more groundballs, and he's being more aggressive than he has been since 2022. Even though his chase rate is below league average, it's still the highest mark he's ever had. He's also swinging at pitches on the edge of the strike zone more than he ever has, which seems to paint a picture of a hitter who is pressing. When you factor in that Springer is 36 years old and was on a decline before last year came out of nowhere, his step backwards this year makes more sense.

For people who believe in his hot stretch, we can narrow his sample size. Over his last 13 games (since June 1st), he's hitting .214/.370/.405 with two home runs, six runs scored, five RBI, and three steals. He has just a 30.6% hard-hit rate over that stretch, but is doing a better job of elevating the ball, and obviously showing good plate discipline with an 8/10 K/BB ratio. Still, the bat speed is down, and the hard contact isn't there. I believe we could be looking at a .240 hitter the rest of the way with 10-12 home runs and 5-6 steals while hitting in a decent lineup. That's fine for 15-team leagues, but I don't think this player needs to be rostered in many shallower formats. Now could be the best time to float some trade offers.

MLB Strikeout Props & Pitcher Best Bets for Today, June 18

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If you are not a fan of sweaty MLB player props, this might not be your article. But if you are here for fun and a little chaos, welcome!

Here are my three favorite MLB pitcher props for this evening’s slate. We are fading all three starters while rooting for consistent contact and some good eyes at the dish.

Let's have a day on Thursday, June 18.

Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today

Player PickOdds
White Sox Sean BurkeOver 2.5 Walks Allowed+135
Cardinals Matthew LiberatoreUnder 4.5 Strikeouts-139
Royals Noah CameronUnder 4.5 Strikeouts-134

Sean Burke Over 2.5 walks allowed (+135)

I am already fading Chicago White Sox starter Sean Burke in another play today, so let's double down on an issue that has plagued him lately — giving up walks.

Over his last five starts, Burke owns a walk rate hovering around 15%. That number sits just above 10% on the road this season, and it climbs to 12.2% against right-handed hitters away from home.

More recently, left-handed hitters have given him serious trouble, as he's posted an 18.3% walk rate over the last 60 lefties he has faced.

Now he draws a New York Yankees lineup loaded with disciplined hitters who are more than willing to take a free pass.

Over their last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, six Yankees hitters own at least a 10% walk rate, while two sit north of 20%. Expand the sample to the last 60 plate appearances, and five hitters carry at least an 8.3% walk rate, with four checking in at 11.1% or higher. 

Getting this at better than +130 feels well worth a dabble. With the number set at 2.5, I would still be interested down to the +120 range.

  • Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: YES, CHSN

Matthew Liberatore Under 4.5 strikeouts (-139)

One of the toughest teams in baseball to strike out over the last few years has been the Kansas City Royals, and that profile has held steady this season with a strikeout rate hovering around 20% at home.

They draw St. Louis Cardinals left-hander Matthew Liberatore, and he enters today with a poorly rated average hitter matchup strikeout profile in both Batters-Box datasets. He owns the lowest K% among Thursday starters over the last three seasons, and the second-lowest overall this season.

In 28 games with a poorly rated K% matchup, he has gone under this prop 57.14% of the time. In 14 games graded as average overall, he has stayed Under five strikeouts at a 57% clip as well.

The Royals have posted just a 10% strikeout rate at home against left-handed pitching this season. Over their last 30 plate appearances against southpaws, they have five hitters sitting at a 14.3% strikeout rate or lower, with only three above 23.3%.

This is a contact-heavy group, and I have no issue backing an Under 4.5 strikeouts for Liberatore. If you want to chase plus money, the Under 3.5 is live, but the broader trends point more strongly toward the Under 4.5.

  • Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: ROYL, CARD

Noah Cameron Under 4.5 strikeouts (-134)

Yup, we're on both starters' Under strikeouts in the Cardinals vs. Royals matchup this evening. It's hard to ignore two of the lowest strikeout profiles on the slate.

Royals lefty Noah Cameron owns the lowest K% in Batters-Box’s current season dataset. The sample size is still small, so I'm not putting too much weight into the fact he has gone Under this line in 83% of outings.

That said, Cameron has posted a 20.9% strikeout rate at home this season, along with an 11.3% swinging strike rate and a 23.6% whiff rate.

On the other side, the Cardinals have been extremely tough to miss on against lefties on the road. As a group, they carry an 11.1% strikeout rate, an 83.3% contact rate, and just a 7.9% swinging strike rate.

The lineup also features six hitters with a 16.7% or lower strikeout rate over their last 30 at bats against lefties, with four of those bats sitting at 10% or lower. Zooming out to the last 60 at bats, seven hitters are at 20% or lower, with four still at 16.7% or below.

This sets up for two offenses putting the ball in play a ton, with strikeouts at a premium. I would not take this prop any higher than where it sits, so if you want plus money, pairing it with Liberatore is the way I would look.

  • Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: ROYL, CARD
Colby Marchio's 2026 Transparency Record
  • Prop picks: 228-394-35, +7.14 units

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Not intended for use in MA.
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Mariners outfielder Julio Rodríguez leaves game against Orioles with hamstring spasm

SEATTLE — Seattle Mariners outfielder Julio Rodríguez left the game against the Baltimore Orioles with a hamstring injury after striking out to end the sixth inning.

The three-time All-Star spoke to a team athletic trainer before exiting the dugout.

Mariners manager Dan Wilson told reporters after his team’s 5-3 loss that Rodríguez had a spasm in his hamstring.

Rodríguez was 1 for 3 with a double, giving him 125 doubles to go along with 125 homers and 125 stolen bases in his career.

He reached those totals in 665 major league games, making the 25-year-old Rodríguez the third-fastest player to do it.

Atlanta Braves star Ronald Acuña Jr. was the fastest at 591 games and former big leaguer Alfonso Soriano, a seven-time All-Star, pulled off the feat in 643 games, according to Sportradar.

Brewers’ Brandon Sproat leaves game with hamstring cramp. He doesn’t expect to miss any more time

MILWAUKEE — The Milwaukee Brewers believe the right hamstring cramp that caused pitcher Brandon Sproat to leave his start in the fourth inning won’t have any long-term consequences.

“It’s just a cramp,” manager Pat Murphy said after the Brewers’ 9-4 victory over the Cleveland Guardians. “He was fine. He’ll be able to make his next start.”

After Sproat threw an 0-1 pitch for a ball to Steven Kwan, Brewers head athletic trainer Brad Epstein went to the pitcher’s mound to check on the right-hander. Sproat then left the game, as Chad Patrick came out of the bullpen to replace him.

Sproat said he was dealing with the cramp for much of the fourth inning. After retiring nine straight battters through the first three innings, Sproat allowed a grand slam to Daniel Schneemann in the fourth.

“The whole fourth inning, whenever my back leg would swing around, that hamstring wanted to cramp up on me,” Sproat said. “Trying to push through it, and it just kind of got worse as I kept going on. Obviously the long inning didn’t help. But we went and got it checked out with the trainers and stuff like that, and I’m not going to miss any time.”

Sproat allowed two walks and a single to the first three hitters he faced in the fourth. After Rhys Hoskins struck out, Schneemann sent a 2-2 pitch over the right-field wall.

Sproat then retired David Fry on a pop fly before leaving during Kwan’s plate appearance.

After the game, Sproat was asked how much the cramp might have contributed to his struggles in the fourth inning.

“It’s one of those things where you know it’s there,” Sproat said. “It’s really just one of those things that’s annoying, I guess, is the best way to put it.”

The Brewers acquired Sproat in a January trade that sent two-time All-Star pitcher Freddy Peralta to the New York Mets. Sproat is 1-4 with a 5.94 ERA in his first full season in the major leagues.

Texas Rangers lineup for June 18, 2026

May 30, 2026; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas Rangers left fielder Alejandro Osuna (19) makes a running catch on a fly ball during the third inning against the Kansas City Royals at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Dieb-Imagn Images | Andrew Dieb-Imagn Images

Texas Rangers lineup for June 18, 2026 against the Minnesota Twins: starting pitchers are Jack Leiter for the Rangers and Joe Ryan for the Twins.

In an afternoon game on this fine Thursday, the Rangers look to avoid the sweep.

The lineup:

Pederson — DH

Jung — 3B

Langford — LF

Nimmo — RF

Duran — SS

Smith — 2B

Burger — 1B

Osuna — CF

Higashioka — C

1:35 p.m. Central start time. Rangers are +105 underdogs.

Tigers’ Wenceel Perez injured in freak accident in training room, team puts Gleyber Torres on IL

HOUSTON — The Detroit Tigers were without two players in a 4-2 loss to the Houston Astros, missing outfielder Wenceel Perez due to a freak accident and second baseman Gleyber Torres with an oblique strain.

Tigers manager A.J. Hinch told reporters Perez was hit in the the face by a resistance band in the training room.

The team put Torres on the 10-day IL, retroactive to June 15. The three-time All-Star also went on the IL in May with an oblique strain and missed time last year with the same injury.

Torres is hitting .280 with four homers and 18 RBIs this season.

Detroit also reinstated right-hander Casey Mize from the injured list and put him on the mound at Houston. Mize (4-2) gave up three runs and six hits over 4 2/3 innings to took the loss against the Astros.

Blue Jays at Red Sox; Sonny Gray looks to avoid sweep

May 24, 2026; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Sonny Gray (54) pitches during the third inning against the Minnesota Twins at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images | Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

TV: NESN

First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET

The Red Sox and Blue Jays will wrap up what has been an astonishingly consistent series on Thursday at Fenway Park.

Boston puts tons of guys on base, none of them score, they lose. Toronto barely scrapes together a few hits, somehow gets its baserunners to score, they win. It’s like clockwork, though that needs to change in order for the former to keep itself from falling 14 games below .500.

Sonny Gray will toe the rubber hoping to turn his club’s fortunes around, which has proven to be a fairly decent formula as he’s 4-0 with a 2.86 ERA and 30 Ks in his last five outing stretching back to May 18. Red Sox manager Chad Tracy is rolling with a similar lineup to that of the middle game, with Caleb Durbin and Connor Wong subbing in for Marcelo Mayer and Masataka Yoshida.

Trey Yesavage will look to complete the series sweep for the Blue Jays, having already picked up a victory over this opponent earlier this season.

Yohendrick Piñango and Brandon Valenzuela will slot into the road team’s lineup for the first time this series. Nathan Lukes, on the other hand, will get his second start. Alejandro Kirk, Davis Schneider, and Myles Straw will slot out after getting the start on Wednesday.

The Red Sox will hit the road for a six-game road trip against the Seattle Mariners and Colorado Rockies.

MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Thursday, June 18

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I came up empty yesterday on the home run trio despite some decent offensive output from Brian Reynolds and Alec Bohm. There are some great hitting spots today on the small slate that are worthy of some dinger bets and MLB player props.

Right-handed bats in Fenway have a big edge with 20-mph winds blowing out to left, and Bryce Harper gets a reverse-splits lefty, which means lefty-on-lefty value with winds blowing out to right field.

Plus, I'm taking another trip to Sacramento for the day's best hitting conditions.

These are my favorite home run props for Thursday, June 18.

  • UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HROdds
Blue Jays Kazuma Okamoto+476
Phillies Bryce Harper+437
A's Tyler Soderstrom+501
💲Today's HR parlay+19102

Home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+476)

There are some great hitting conditions for right-handed bats at Fenway today, with 21-mph winds blowing out toward the Monster in left field. Sonny Gray has been fortunate when it comes to home runs at home this season, allowing just one over 31+ innings, but he owned the fifth-worst HR/FB rate in baseball among qualified starters last year. Regression is coming.

Kazuma Okamoto isn't hitting for average right now, but he leads the team with 15 home runs, owns a low groundball rate (35% over the last 14 days), and paces the club in hard-hit rate. He doesn't have the fastest bat on the team, but when he makes contact, he's squaring the ball up at a 34% clip, which ranks among the top 50 hitters in baseball.

This is one of the best +EV home run props on the board today, alongside George Springer at +490, with a fair price closer to +410.

  • Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: NESN, Sportsnet

Home run pick: Bryce Harper (+437)

Today, we're getting a lefty-on-lefty price on a Bryce Harper home run, but it isn't a typical LvL matchup. Sean Manaea gives up HRs to lefties at the same rate as right-handed hitters, and left-handed bats are hitting for a better average vs. him since 2024. Harper has tagged him once in the 15 at-bats between the two, where the All-Star hitter is sporting a .400 AVG.

Harper broke a five-game hitless streak yesterday but had been tearing up June with a 1.060 OPS before that with two homers. His 42.6% hard-hit rate leads the Phillies this year and ranks 18th in baseball. The 14-mph winds will only help the lefty swinger with a 40% pull rate.

  • Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: NBCSP, SNY

Home run pick: Tyler Soderstrom (+501)

I'll happily add a +500 homer in Sacramento today with, by far, the best hitting conditions on the slate.

Tyler Soderstrom is slugging .719 during the Athletics' current nine-game homestand, where he has also launched four home runs. His .395 ISO ranks inside the Top 25 in baseball over the last two weeks, and his 75.4-mph bat speed places him among the upper tier of hitters over that same stretch.

The Halos are rolling with a bullpen day, and that group of relievers ranks in the bottom third of the league in HR/9. Four of the seven most-used Angels' relievers also carry ERAs north of 4.00.

I love runs in this game.

  • Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: ABTV, NBCSCA
Josh Inglis' 2026 Transparency Record
  • HR picks: 16-116, -34.26 units

Today’s HR parlay

Blue Jays Kazuma OkamotoBet Now
+19102
Phillies Bryce Harper
A's Tyler Soderstrom

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Scottish quartet win £8k in Boston Red Sox raffle

Scotland supporters with Boston Red Sox cheque
Peter, Ross, John and Paul enjoyed a weekend to remember stateside [BBC]

Four Scotland supporters enjoyed an even more memorable weekend than most in Boston as they became what the Red Sox believe to be the first UK winners of the club's 50/50 raffle.

Two father and son duos, Peter and Paul Innes and John and Ross Henderson - from Bonnyrigg, Midlothian - attended the Scotland Celebration night at the iconic Fenway Park the night after Steve Clarke's side defeated Haiti in their opening World Cup match.

They bought a $40 raffle ticket between them on Sunday as the Red Sox faced the Texas Rangers and "after checking the number 250 times" discovered they have won the $21,353.80 (£16,132.90) prize.

"It's just surreal," Paul, who has followed Scotland home and away with his dad for over a decade said. "It's not really sunk in."

Half of the winnings goes to support the Red Sox Foundation, meaning the men from Bonnyrigg were presented with a cheque of $10, 676.90 (£8,066.45) before the Red Sox' match against the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday.

Staff at the Red Sox can't recall a winner from the United Kingdom, and are struggling to find records of any international winners of late.

The Tartan Army marched to the home of the Boston Red Sox before taking in their defeat to the Texas Rangers on a night which hit headlines globally.

"My best pal, his son, my son, amazing," John added. "What a trip we've had!"