Category: MLB

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It was donuts yesterday for the first time in nine articles, but with a handful of fade-able pitchers on the mound, Wednesday's slate is ripe for dingers and MLB player props.

Dansby Swanson has launched seven homers over the last two weeks, and I'm betting on No. 8 today against Dean Kremer. Juan Soto's home run price has also drifted nearly 100 points from yesterday despite drawing an even better matchup against a parade of right-handed pitching.

To round out the card, I'm going with a big price on an under-the-radar clean-up hitter who is a Top-5 bat over the last two weeks. 

These are my favorite home run props for July 8.

Best MLB home run props today

Home run pick: Dansby Swanson (+493)

I'm a little late to the Dansby Swanson power surge, but for a guy with seven home runs over the last two weeks and the fifth-best SLG in baseball during that stretch, today might be the best spot yet to ride the hot bat.

Dean Kremer gets the ball for the Orioles, and that pushes a lot of the Cubs' home run props into +EV territory.

Kremer is making just his second start after a lengthy IL stint and is one of the best home run targets on the board. He has allowed a homer in each of his four starts this season, ranks among the Bottom 30 starters in HR/9 over the last three seasons, and gives up plenty of fly balls.

There is also some dugout history, as three Cubs hitters have already taken him deep, albeit in small samples.

I've been hesitant to play Swanson's home run prop because he still hits in the lower third of the order, but he's getting his four plate appearances and has been hitting the ball harder than 99% of the league of late.

The fair price is closer to +400.

• Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MASN, Marquee Sports Network

Home run pick: Juan Soto (+350)

How about a square pick at a good price with an elite matchup?

The Royals are using an opener today before turning things over to Triple-A call-up Mitch Spence for the bulk innings. It's already a bullpen missing three arms after yesterday's "baseball game" that produced 28 runs, 32 hits, and three errors.

Juan Soto went deep against right-hander Seth Lugo last night in the fourth inning, yet his home-run price is nearly 100 points longer today in an even better matchup.

Spence has allowed 11 home runs in 59+ innings this season at Triple-A and has struggled to keep the ball in the park. This has the makings of another loose baseball game with plenty of home run upside for the Mets.

Soto ranks among the Top 25 hitters in both slugging and ISO over the last two weeks, and I make this home run prop closer to +270.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SNY, Royals.TV

Home run pick: Esmerlyn Valdez (+592)

If you sort the best hitters in baseball by slugging percentage over the last two weeks, Pittsburgh's Esmerlyn Valdez sits third and is one of just three hitters with a SLG of .800 or higher. He has been one of the hottest bats in baseball, ranking near the top in offensive production during this stretch.

The Pirates' cleanup hitter has only launched four homers over those two weeks, but the underlying power numbers suggest more could be on the way. That starts tonight against Grant Holmes, who has shown an increase in home run risk compared to last season.

Valdez has been one of the most dangerous young power bats in baseball of late. Everything from his swing speed to his IdealAtkAng% and BlastContact% shows there is more power coming.

At +592, this is the type of price I'm willing to take a shot on.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: BravesVision, SNP

Today’s HR parlay

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Buoyed by the success of last year’s MLB Tokyo Series merch collaboration with Japanese artist Takashi Murakami, the Dodgers are venturing further into partnerships with cutting-edge artists.

Fans whose eyes are solely focused on the diamond might be unfamiliar with KAWS, aka Brian Donnelly, a Brooklyn-based artist and designer whose signature creation is Companion, an art toy and sculpture that resembles an eerie Mickey Mouse with a skull head and “X” marks for eyes.

How that sensibility meshes with Major League Baseball will be evident when the KAWS x MLB collection is released ahead of the Dodgers visiting the New York Yankees for a three-game series July 17-19. The release was announced by Fanatics and Complex, which will market and distribute the collection.

KAWS’ interpretation of official team gear will reside on Nike-produced jerseys, T-shirts, hoodies and caps. Count on the ubiquitous “XX” that typically stand in for eyeballs on the Companion character and the artist’s other dark cartoonish creations.

The collection also will include baseballs, bats and a limited run of Topps trading cards that promise to feature KAWS’ interpretation of Dodgers and Yankees iconography.

“Timed to one of baseball’s most storied rivalries, the collection brings KAWS’ distinctive visual language to the diamond,” said Aaron Levant, chief executive of Complex. “The result is a crossover moment at the intersection of sport, art, and pop culture, where legacy franchises are reframed through one of the most influential artists of this generation.”

Read more:Dodgers collaborate with Japanese artist Takashi Murakami on merchandise again. Here’s how to get it

KAWS’ body of work spans more than 25 years and includes painting, sculpture and design that straddle fine art and global culture. He is known for larger-than-life sculptures and hard-edge paintings that feature his hybrid cartoon characters.

While studying at New York’s School of Visual Arts, he moonlighted as a graffiti artist, defacing billboards, freight trains and water towers. That changed in 1996 when he was given a skeleton key that opened glass advertising boxes on the sides of phone booths and bus kiosks.

KAWS stopped writing his name on walls and began altering ads. He would steal ad posters, paint over them with rudimentary cartoon skulls with X’ed-out eyes in pastel colors, then carefully replace them.

Now his creations range in value from under $20 to millions. His 2005 remake of the the Beatles’ “Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band” album cover using characters from “The Simpsons” sold for $14.8 million at Sotheby’s in 2019. His 9-foot-tall painting of Simpsons characters on a couch sold for $7.4 million. His piece showing a screaming “Kawsbob” (SpongeBob) fetched $6 million.

The MLB collection will debut at Fanatics Fest in New York from July 16 to 19 and in the Yankees team store July 16. The full collection — including the Topps trading cards — will launch globally July 20 on Complex.com, Fanatics.com, MLBShop.com and Nike.com.

Items will be available at select Dodgers team stores July 20 and in the Dodger Stadium team store July 31.

“KAWS is one of the defining artists of our generation, and bringing his artwork together with Major League Baseball and two of the most iconic franchises in sports creates something that speaks to fans far beyond baseball,” Levant said. “This collection is designed to live at the intersection of sport, art, fashion and collecting in a way that only this group of partners could bring together.”

Get the best, most interesting and strangest stories of the day from the L.A. sports scene and beyond from our newsletter The Sports Report.

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

The Cubs have been desperately seeking solid starting pitching and Tuesday night in Baltimore, they got it from Matthew Boyd.

Boyd threw six shutout innings against the Orioles, allowing just three hits and striking out seven, as the Cubs defeated the Orioles 5-2 in the first game of a six-game road trip.

The game went scoreless into the top of the third. With two out in that inning, Miguel Amaya drew a walk and went to second on a single by Pete Crow-Armstrong.

Alex Bregman’s single scored Amaya to give the Cubs a 1-0 lead [VIDEO].

The game remained 1-0 Cubs until the top of the fifth. Dansby Swanson led off with a single. Amaya, having himself a nice game, doubled to center. PCA then singled, scoring Swanson [VIDEO].

Amaya took third on the play, and then scored on this fielder’s choice by Bregman[VIDEO].

As you can see, Bregman was called out at first on the field, but it was quiekly overturned by the replay review crew. The Cubs had a chance for more in the inning when Michael Busch walked, but Seiya Suzuki then hit into an inning-ending double play.

Boyd was outstanding in his six innings of work. He threw 93 pitches (64 strikes). Here are his seven K’s [VIDEO].

Here’s more on Boyd’s outing [VIDEO].

That’s definitely Boyd’s best outing of the year, and now he’s thrown 15.2 innings since his return from the weird knee injury, allowed three runs in that span (1.72 ERA) and struck out 13. If he can keep this up, that is a huge boost to the rotation. More on Boyd from BCB’s JohnW53:

Matthew Boyd is the fourth different Cub this season to pitch at least six shutout innings.

Shota Imanaga had starts of 7.0 and 6.0; Javier Asasad, of 6.1 and 6.0; and Edward Cabrerea, 6.0. Cabrera’s and both of Imanaga’s came in the Cubs’ first 33 games, through May 2.

The next, Assad’s first, came in their 66th game, on June 7. His second came five days later, in their 70th, so this was the Cubs’ first in 21 games.

The Cubs extended the lead to 4-0 in the top of the seventh. Amaya led off with a single and one out later, advanced to third on a double by Bregman, who had himself a nice game.

Michael Busch’s sacrifice fly scored Amaya [VIDEO].

Ryan Rolison relieved Boyd and got himself in trouble with a pair of singles, followed by two strikeouts and a walk, loading the bases. It might have been worse if Amaya hadn’t correctly challenged a possible ball four call [VIDEO].

Rolison, who threw 27 pitches, was relieved by Jacob Webb. Webb got Adley Rutschman to hit a ground ball, but it went just out of Nico Hoerner’s reach into right field for a two-run single to cut the lead in half. Webb then struck out Gunnar Henderson to end the inning.

The Cubs got one of those runs back in the eighth. With one out, Nico singled and stole second. A ground out advanced Nico to third, where he scored on this single by Swanson [VIDEO].

Tyler Ferguson, who’s rapidly getting into Craig Counsell’s Circle of Trust, threw a 1-2-3 eighth on only eight pitches.

Trent Thornton was given the save opportunity. He retired the Orioles 1-2-3 on two ground outs and a strikeout to post his second save. Here’s the final out [VIDEO].

Here are Craig Counsell’s postgame comments [VIDEO].

Overall the Cubs went 3-for-8 with RISP, cashed in on several situations and in general, got good relief pitching (save the two-run single given up by Webb), a really nice way to start the road trip.

The Cubs will go for two in a row over the Orioles Wednesday evening in Baltimore. Colin Rea will start for the Cubs and Dean Kremer goes for the O’s. Game time is 5:35 p.m. CT (that is, if they don’t have another “rain delay” without rain) and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network.

One way or another, the Orioles are going to decide whether they are buyers or sellers by the end of this month. Perhaps they will come to the conclusion that many of you have already reached, or maybe Mike Elias will double down on this team’s diminishing playoff odds. Either way, the decision will not happen overnight.

The organization should be constantly taking stock of the team and each position group. The front office knows that the bullpen needs help. It’s aware that the rotation is trending upward and that the infield misses Jordan Westburg. But what about the outfield? I’d love to ask Mike Elias to evaluate the group’s performance this season and his expectations moving forward.

The unit can be broken up into players born in the 20th and 21st century. Taylor Ward has been an everyday player this year after coming over from the Angels. The 32-year-old has experienced a power outage but is less than 10 walks away from his career high. Ward has emerged as a decent table setter, and the free-agent-to-be has contributed more in Baltimore than Grayson Rodriguez has provided in LA.

The Orioles signed Leody Taveras to a one-year, $2-million deal early in the offseason. Despite his major league deal, it was never a guarantee that Taveras would break camp with the team. The 27-year-old made the team as a backup outfielder but proceeded to slash .288/.397/.455 over the first month of the season. Taveras temporarily became an everyday player when Colton Cowser got off to a hot start, and he remains a serviceable fourth or fifth outfielder.

The same cannot be said for Tyler O’Neill. O’Neill has managed to stay relatively healthy this season while reaching a new level of disappointment. The man signed to hit lefties holds a .184 batting average and a .141 average against southpaws.

O’Neill has become a symbol of Elias’s recent failures. The Orioles waited and waited to sign a player to a multi-year deal before settling on this guy. At the end of the day, O’Neill only has his contract and some general stubbornness from the general manager to thank for his spot on this team.

Cowser slashed .186/.269/.220 over his first 26 games while struggling to make contact with offspeed pitches. The Milk Man eventually snapped out of his funk with four homers in May and four more in June. The former first round pick has yet to reach the offensive potential that he displayed during his rookie season, but his quality outfield defense has marked one of the only bright spots on that side of the ball.

Cowser clearly has the chops to play center field. He may never hit for a high average, but his .317 on-base percentage is only four points below the number he posted in 2024. The former Player’s Choice for the AL’s Most Outstanding Rookie has played his way back into an everyday role and could be poised for a strong second half.

The Orioles waited to promote Dylan Beavers last season because they believed he had at least a slim chance to compete for a rookie award this season. Beavers fell out of the running early when he suffered a strained oblique back in mid May. Now healthy, Beavers is looking to build on his reputation of getting on base.

Beavers, the 33rd-overall pick in the 2022 draft, entered last night’s game slashing .222/.313/.342. He posted a 119 OPS+ over 35 games last fall, but his numbers are only good for an 86 OPS+ so far this year. Baseball development is non-linear, and Beavers is still settling back in after rejoining the Orioles at the end of June.

The Orioles could deal Ward if they decide to sell. There’s a chance the team holds on to the future free agent and extends him a qualifying offer at the end of the year, but his Baltimore tenure could end early if a team is willing to part with some value.

The same cannot be said for O’Neill. The former Cardinal still has a year remaining on his albatros of a contract, and it’s unlikely that any team would be willing to take on that deal. Even if Baltimore expressed a willingness to eat the money, O’Neill’s presence would represent a regression for almost every roster in the league.

The Orioles will have a hole to address in the outfield this offseason, but how they feel about the position group could hinge on Cowser and Beavers taking a step in the right direction.

Beavers can play center field in a pinch, but he’s a far cry from Cowser in the outfield. His value will likely depend on his ability to get on base while continuing to add some power.

The Orioles could eventually make room for a pair of outfielders currently at Triple-A. The hype has simmered for Heston Kjerstad and Enrique Bradfield Jr., but both players are healthy and suiting up for the Tides. Kjerstad entered last night’s game slashing .288/.316/.442 over 41 games at Norfolk, and Bradfield Jr. is slashing .258/.323/.342 with 15 stolen bases in 34 appearances.

Either player developing into a quality major leaguer would represent a massive win at this stage. Both players are flawed but possess valuable skills that can translate at the next level.

Ward—and even Taveras under the right circumstance—could call another city home by the end of the month. Even if the team refuses to sell, the Orioles will still look to Cowser and Beavers for production in the second half. A few young outfielders taking another step in the right direction could represent a high point of an otherwise disappointing season.

Rangers 8, Angels 3

• The Rangers are back above .500.
• Holla.
• This was an instance where it wasn’t feeling real “winny” for much of the game, and seemed to be heading towards another home defeat to a bad team.
• Until it didn’t.
• Jacob deGrom wasn’t all that deGrommy on Tuesday, getting “just” 13 swings and misses and getting lifted after five innings and 80 pitches.
• It turns out he had a hip issue that was bothering him, which prompted the early removal, and likely contributed to his not quite having his A game. He is saying he expects to make his next start on Sunday — the final game before the All Star Game — and hopefully that’s the case.
• The Rangers as a whole are dealing with Dane Dunning Syndrome this year, but deGrom is being hit especially hard. He allowed two runs in his start, both of which came in the first inning.
• Almost half the runs deGrom has allowed this season — 19 of 39 — have come in the first inning. Half of the extra base hits he’s given up — 14 of 28 — have been in the first inning. Opponents are hitting .308/.365/.692 against deGrom in the first inning.
• I can’t tell you what opponents are hitting off of deGrom from the second inning on because that would require way more math than I feel like doing this morning.
• After the first, deGrom was quite alright, only allowing one Angel as far as second base, in the second, when a leadoff Zach Neto walk and an infield single by Denzer Guzman on a ball Ezequiel Duran, playing third, should have had an out on, but looked to second prior to throwing (late) to first, putting two on with one out, though deGrom had no issues retiring the next two batters.
• deGrom had 7 strikeouts in the game, moving him past Kenny Rogers, Bob Welch and Aaron Nola for 101st on the all time strikeout list, with 1973, though Nola, who has 1970 Ks currently, will likely pass deGrom when Nola makes his next start later this week.
• deGrom should, hopefully, move up to 97th place in his next start, which would involve him passing Nola (if Nola gets ahead of him), Al Leiter (1974), Livan Hernandez (1976), and John Clarkson and Ervin Santana (1978).
• Cole Winn, Chris Martin, Peyton Gray and Tyler Alexander each pitched an inning to finish things out. Alexander was able to pitch the ninth due to an offensive eruption in the eighth, which turned a tie game into a blowout.
• I saw some criticism of Skip Schumaker using Martin in a tie game in the seventh, but you know, its really just a byproduct of the current state of the bullpen. Assuming Peyton Gray and Jacob Latz were going to pitch the eighth and ninth, your options were asking Winn (who lowered his ERA on the year to 6.39 with a scoreless inning) to pitch a second inning, or else turn to Gavin Collyer, Robby Ahlstrom, Ben Peoples, Alexander, or Martin.
• There’s not a really great option in that situation. And that’s not even getting into the fact that the Rangers’ current eighth inning guy is Peyton Gray.
• Martin allowed an Oswald Peraza single to start the seventh, with Peraza then stealing second base and scoring on Wade Meckler’s single, which appeared to set the stage for Martin to don the goat horns, even after a Logan O’Hoppe GIDP and a Zach Neto pop out ended the inning with no more runs scoring.
• Jose Soriano, who started the year by allowing one run, total, in his first six starts and then crashed back down to earth, having a 5.34 in his 12 starts prior to Tuesday, had one bad inning, issuing a pair of walks to Evan Carter and Alejandro Osuna before giving up a two run single to offensive catalyst Nicky Lopez. Soriano allowed just two baserunners otherwise, and it was with much relief that we saw a reliever come into the game for the Angels to start the seventh.
• Justin Foscue, pinch hitting for Evan Carter against Tayler Saucedo to lead off the inning, worked the count full, and on the eighth pitch of the at bat sent a missile into the left field seats to tie the game.
• Things were broken wide open in the eighth. Josh Smith and Jake Burger started the inning off with singles, and advanced on a Brandon Nimmo groundout. Ezequiel Duran gave the Rangers the lead with a single, putting runners on the corners, with Justin Foscue following up with a run scoring single. Alejandro Osuna then ruined Jacob Latz’s opportunity to add on to his save total by yanking a ball down the line in right field and into the seats for a three run homer.
• There was just one out, not two, but I’ll take it.
• With the Mariners losing, the Rangers are now a half-game back in the American League West. They hold the WC3 spot, a game and a half up on the Astros and Twins and 3.5 games up on the Jays. They are also just a half game back of the Guardians for WC2, for what it is worth.
• Jacob deGrom hit 99.3 mph with his fastball, averaging 97.7 mph. Cole Winn hit 95.9 mph with his fastball. Chris Martin touched 95.0 mph with his fastball. Peyton Gray’s fastball maxed out at 94.2 mph. Tyler Alexander touched 92.3 mph with his fastball.
• Justin Foscue had a 111.0 mph home run. Elias Diaz had a 108.0 mph single and a 106.3 mph single. Ezequiel Duran had a 104.6 mph single and a 103.4 mph groundout. Alejandro Osuna had a 102.0 mph home run. Joc Pederson had a 100.5 mph fly out.
• Five games to go before the All Star Break.

Any list of MLB All-Star snubs has to include right-hander Zack Wheeler of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Just ask him.

The veteran, who came back from thoracic outlet surgery this past offseason to be one of the game's best pitchers, took his frustrations out on the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday night − then had enough left in the tank to slam MLB's selection process afterwards.

Wheeler tied his career high with 14 strikeouts in a 4-1 Phillies win, and then made his case for being part of the NL All-Star team.

However, MLB rules prevent any pitcher who starts on the Sunday before the All-Star Game from being named to the team.

"I think it's kind of a B.S. rule that just because I pitch on a certain day, I get punished for it," Wheeler told reporters.

Despite not making his 2026 debut until April 25, Wheeler has posted a 9-1 record and 2.28 ERA in 14 starts.

Even if he did pitch on Sunday, Wheeler said he normally throws bullpen sessions on the second and third days after a start. So tossing an inning in the All-Star Game wouldn't be a heavy lift.

Wheeler, 36, has been named an All-Star three times during his career. But with this year's game at his home park in Philadelphia, the honor would have even greater significance.

Wheeler's teammate Jesus Luzardo, along with pitchers Braxton Ashcraft of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Riley O'Brien of the St. Louis Cardinals, were added to the NL All-Star team earlier in the day Tuesday.

That just might have provided some additional incentive for Wheeler to prove his point on the field.

"For sure," Wheeler said. "That was a reminder for whoever needs to be reminded ...

"maybe if I wasn't necessarily right in there, I wouldn't be saying this. But I feel like I've earned it." 

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Phillies' Wheeler fans 14 Reds, rips MLB over 'B.S.' All-Star rule

The best stats are the stats that work for hitters and pitchers. They are mirror images of each other. On Monday, we looked at offensive efficiency to see how the Astros offense was holding up. The numbers obviously cut in a number of directions, but the main components are to see how many base runners the Astros get in comparison with the other AL teams and what percentage of those runners score. We can and should do the same thing with the pitching staff.

We do this for two main reasons. The first is that simply watching the Astros does not give us a clear picture of where they stand with the rest of the league. We could say that the Astros pitching staff has been awful at times this season, but that only makes sense as a comparison with everyone else. So, we look at total base runners and hits in general. Secondly, the efficiency rating tells us if the Astros have been particularly unlucky or if they are where they are supposed to be.

Why is this important? Simply put, as we approach the deadline it becomes dreadfully important to identify the real holes on the team. If the Astros are unlucky then a positive regression could solve a number of problems. If they aren’t unlucky then we know there is a significant hole that needs to be filled. A simple accounting would show that the Astros were 13th out of 15 teams in runs allowed through the weekend. Obviously, the opener of the Washington series makes that look worse. However, is positive regression likely? Let’s take a look at the numbers across the board through the weekend’s games.

	Runs	Hits	Walks	HBP	TBR	EFF
Red Sox	347	702	259	35	996	.348
Guardians	364	710	292	29	1031	.353
Yankees	343	664	268	34	966	.355
Mariners	345	707	224	40	971	.355
White Sox	396	697	340	50	1087	.364
Tigers	365	698	267	34	999	.365
Rangers	394	709	254	35	998	.370
Blue Jays	394	717	316	25	1058	.372
Rays	359	672	235	30	937	.383
Angels	450	711	401	48	1160	.388
Astros	457	726	395	55	1176	.389
Royals	452	792	339	29	1160	.390
Orioles	444	780	320	24	1124	.392
Athletics	479	818	343	38	1199	.399
Twins	464	779	328	49	1156	.401
Average	402	725	305	37	1067	.377

Statistics is a fascinating field all by itself. Means and medians can tell us a lot, but there is a whole lot here going on that averages can’t tell us. Six teams have allowed fewer than 1000 base runners. Six teams have allowed more than 1100 base runners. So, the league average tells us something, but the data is a pretty stratified. In others words, teams in the AL tend to be either really good or really bad on the mound.

The other thing we notice is that the efficiency ratings for the offense and pitching staff do not match up. This is because there is a significant amount of interleague play here and the National League is clearly better than the American League this season. The Blue Jays are officially the median in efficiency which sits at .372. That is significantly lower than the league average, so the high scores are skewing the results considerably. That makes the Astros look considerably worse than simply comparing them to the numerical mean.

Voros McCracken is one of the pioneers in evaluating pitching numbers and he developed something he called defensive independent pitching statistics (DIPS). His working theory was that pitchers could not control balls in play. They could control strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and home runs allowed. Since then, we have learned that pitchers can influence contact to a greater degree than he surmised. However, looking at this so-called DIPS tells us a lot about the Astros pitching staff.

The current Astros staff is 14th in home runs allowed, 14th in walks allowed, and 15th in hit batters. That ain’t a pretty sight. They are 11th in hits allowed which is slightly better. In other words, their fortunes will improve considerably if they just throw more strikes. However, if we are to believe that regression to the mean is a general rule then the Astros pitching staff is due for some positive regression.

However, it is important that we are precise here. If the Astros had a league median efficiency rating then they would surrender only 437 runs. That’s a difference of 20 runs from where they are now. In the stats world, 20 runs would be equivalent to two wins. Obviously, two wins and two fewer losses in the standings would put the Astros within a game of first place in the AL West. It’s not nothing.

Still, the fact is that the Astros are 14th in base runners allowed. Considering that Sacramento is a ban box, you could credibly claim that the Astros have had the worst pitching staff in the American League up to this point. Even with positive regression, you are probably only lapping the Athletics, Twins, Royals, and Orioles. That’s still not a good pitching staff.

This is where the question gets harder. It seems rather obvious that the Astros could most use another pitcher or two. However, the biggest culprits on the staff are Mike Burrows, Tatsuya Imai, Bryan Abreu, and Cristian Javier. You already have two better relief pitchers languishing in Sugar Land because you feel compelled to keep around two of those guys. You have the likes of Hayden Wesneski and Ronel Blanco due to come back in August. Even if they are merely below average, that would be a vast improvement over what Imai and Burrows have given you so far.

Roster decisions are never easy. We haven’t even brought up Lance McCullers Jr. who would fit comfortably in that quartet of pitchers currently sitting like an anvil on the pitching staff. Calling up an Alimber Santa or Miguel Ullola would mean cutting ties with someone. It would mean that two pitchers would need to be DFAed. I get the reluctance to do that with guys that have been productive in the past. However, you are not going to make it to the postseason and beyond with THIS pitching staff. You might with one better starter and one or two better relievers. Some of those guys are in house. At a certain point, you might need to cut a guy or two you like in favor of people that will actually perform.

Meet the Mets

The Mets lost a long, painful slugfest to the Royals 16-12. Matt Seelinger had a rough major league debut, giving up seven runs and getting the loss. 

Choose your recap: Amazin’ Avenue, Faith and Fear in Flushing, MLB.com, New York Daily News, New York Post

While 2026 might be hard to stomach, there are indications this season is more of an outlier than the start of a downturn.

Mike Tauchman began a rehab assignment in the Florida Complex League yesterday, going 0-for-2 with a walk as the designated hitter.

Over the last month, Bo Bichette has looked more like himself—and he’s felt it, too. 

The Mets designated Guillo Zuñiga for assignment a day after his debut, making room for Matt Seelinger to make his major league debut.

Seelinger waited nearly a decade since being drafted for his moment in the major leagues. 

Jorge Polanco returned from the injured list, with Ronny Mauricio getting optioned and Alex Carillo getting designated for assignment. 

Starling Marte was given a tribute video last night in his return to Citi Field. 

Around the National League East

The Marlins, much to everyone’s surprise, are beginning to look like the real deal, being one of the best teams in baseball for over a month.

Jesús Luzardo was named as an All-Star for the first time, being chosen as a replacement after a few starting pitchers withdrew from participation.

The Braves were walloped by the Pirates, losing 12-4. Ryan O’Hearn became the first player in Pirates history in drive in ten runs in a game, clubbing three home runs during the game.

The Marlins squeaked out a 6-5 win against the Mariners in extra innings. Jakob Marsee hit an RBI single to drive in Xavier Edwards and end the game. 

The Washington Nationals were bested by the Astros 6-3. Andrew Alvarez gave up five runs in 5.2 innings, walking five batters as well.

The Phillies beat the Reds 4-1. Zack Wheeler, fresh off an All-Star snub, struck out 14 batters in seven innings while allowing just one run.

Around Major League Baseball

ESPN updated their list of the top 100 trade candidates, with a little less than a month before the deadline. 

ESPN also doled out midseason grades for each team. 

The Brewers called up their outfield prospect Luis Lara a month after signing a seven year contract extension.

Ben Rice announced he will be participating in the Home Run Derby, with his dad pitching to him. 

Chris Bassitt is eyeing a return in the second half after undergoing back surgery. 

Konnor Griffon tore a tendon in his left ring finger and could miss some serious time rehabbing it. 

Buster Olney spoke to a bunch of big leaguers about their memories of the day they were drafted. 

Joey Cora is out as the Tigers third base coach, with “philosophical differences” being cited. 

Shohei Ohtani celebrated a milestone 300th home run last night, but his eyes are focused on loftier ambitions.

Royals outfielder Tyler Tolbert tied a major league record against the Mets, getting a hit in twelve consecutive plate appearances.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

A Pod of Their Own returned with a new episode.

Steve Sypa gave an introduction to the upcoming amateur draft, and what exactly Mets fans need to know.

Steve Sypa also delivered the fifteenth group of Mets Minor League Players of the Week.

This Date in Mets History

John Stearns and Bobby Jones each made their All-Star debuts on this day, 17 years apart.

Following a second-half collapse for the ages, the New York Mets spent this past winter reinventing their team. They said let franchise legend Pete Alonso leave for Baltimore in free agency, dealt fellow longtime Met Brandon Nimmo to the Texas Rangers for Marcus Semien, saw their two-time NL Reliever of the Year Edwin Díaz leave for the Dodgers, signed former Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette to play third base, came to terms with former Mariners second baseman Jorge Polanco to play first base, traded for former Brewers starter Freddy Peralta to be their ace, and signed Luke Weaver and Devin Williams away from the Yankees to reinforce their bullpen.

The end result? A 38-53 record heading into last night’s chaotic 16-12 loss. Manager Carlos Mendoza was kicked to the curb late last month, putting them firmly in the seller’s camp as the Trade Deadline approaches.

For a team playing as badly as they are — the Mets’ Pythagorean record of 39-52 shows that their performance has been no fluke — the Mets actually have a sizeable group of players who could draw quite a bit of value on the market, a testament to the fact that their roster really has been worse than the sum of its parts. While I do think Anthony DiComo’s statement that “the Mets would do well to consider trades for anything not nailed to the floor” is a bit overstated — he names only Nolan McLean, A.J. Ewing and Carson Benge as safe, and places Juan Soto in the “too expensive to be easily dealt,” ignoring the fact that teams don’t generally trade players on 15-year deals — the reality is, there’s reasons to discuss, well, pretty much everybody.

Despite high-profile meltdowns from Williams, the Mets have quietly put together one of the game’s better bullpen units this year, as their 3.6 fWAR and 3.69 ERA rank sixth, and their 15.8 K-BB% third. After a rough start to the season, old friend Weaver has looked like the 2024 version of himself that helped the Yankees to the World Series, as he has not given up an earned run since April 30th; in that span he has racked up 34 strikeouts in 26 innings, allowing just 18 baserunners. Veteran Huascar Brazobán has been excellent at limiting soft contact this year, and can both provide length out of the ‘pen and pitch in high leverage situations. Furthermore, both players are under team control for next season. Southpaws A.J. Minter (0.56 ERA in 16 innings) and Brooks Raley (2.23 ERA in 32 innings) are both impending free agents, so they’d be pure rentals, but they’d also be cheaper because of that.

The Mets rotation has not been nearly as effective as the bullpen, but still may attract interest. Clay Holmes is currently on the 60-day injured list with a broken leg after being hit by a comebacker off the bat of Spencer Jones on May 15th, and looks to start a rehab assignment after the break. The former Yankees closer has taken to starting much better than anyone could have expected, and represents the closest thing to an ace that the Mets have to trade; his bullpen experience may even make him more valuable, as teams with rotation depth (e.g., the Yankees) could bring him in knowing that he would be comfortable coming on in relief during the postseason. Other than him, the Mets don’t really have any sure bets. Peralta, Kodai Senga, and Sean Manaea have all put together mixed performances, at best, and while a dearth of pitching may inspire a contending team to roll the dice that a change of scenery will help — they have pitched like aces in the not-too-distant past — question marks abound.

Given the team’s 89 OPS+, it should come as no surprise that the lineup isn’t exactly filled with players that most teams would be interested in. If it becomes clear that Bichette plans to opt out despite his lackluster performance (.260/.305/.385 slash line, good for a 92 wRC+), then expect to see him traded — though he does have a no-trade clause and a move would need approval.

Bichette’s relatively solid Statcast data might make him an interesting add for a team in need of infield help, and he did hit .311/.357/.483 just last year while playing in the same division. But said opt-out does complicate matters, as otherwise, Bichette will make $42 million next year and potentially another $42 million in 2028. Ownership would have to approve the expense risk, and it never really sounded like the Yankees were in play for Bo this past offseason.

Reports have suggested that the Soto/Lindor relationship has deteriorated significantly since becoming teammates, leading to vague rumors that the Mets may trade Lindor. Now, I don’t think that’ll happen this year: Lindor is under contract through 2031, and despite Steve Cohen’s attempts to place Soto at the front and center of the Mets’ marketing, the longtime shortstop remains the face of the franchise among many Mets fans. But if the relationship, which strikes me as somewhat akin to the Derek Jeter/Alex Rodriguez relationship of the mid-2000s, deteriorates any further … well, let’s just say, a future trade seems a very real possibility. If that happens, the Yankees should at least check in (even though it’s unlikely the Mets would send him across town), because Lindor was worth 6.3 fWAR last season, and players like that don’t grow on trees.

To my surprise, there has been reports that the Mets may dangle catcher/designated hitter Francisco Alvarez. About to hit arbitration this winter after his age-24 season, Alvarez has not quite lived up to his potential as the third overall prospect. He has struggled to put together a complete season, having been limited to 100 games or fewer in three of his four full seasons, and his pitch framing has rapidly gone in the wrong direction. But power-hitting catchers are hard to find, and he did have a .950 OPS against left-handed pitchers last season. While I expect the Yankees to be more interested in Minnesota’s Ryan Jeffers, if Alvarez is made available, he might be the Mets position player most of interest to the Yankees.

Had they not existed in the same city, the Yankees and Mets look like ideal trade partners, especially if the Mets opt to trade their young catcher. But trades between crosstown rivals aren’t exactly common, and while I do think the Cohen Mets are less likely than the Wilpon Mets to have serious trade discussions, the two teams have only made 16 deals in their history, of which five were simple player purchases. If the Yankees want to match up, they may have to pay an extra New York City tax.

The Mets continue a three-game series against the Royals on Wednesday night at 7:10 on SNY.

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Mets Notes

• Carson Benge has reached base safely in 18 of his last 19 games, and is hitting .296/.352/.506 (.858 OPS) with four homers during that span
• A.J. Ewing is hitting .311/.400/.568 (.968 OPS) with five homers, four doubles, 12 runs scored, and 16 RBI in 85 plate appearances over his last 22 games
• Juan Soto is leading the National League in OBP (.410), slugging percentage (.575), and OPS+ (173)
• Luke Weaver hasn't allowed an earned run since April 30. In 26.0 innings over 24 appearances since then, he has given up just 11 hits while walking seven and striking out 3

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Today's Lineups

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While Tuesday’s contest against the Colorado Rockies produced a more disappointing outcome compared to Monday’s walk-off, Shohei Ohtani started off the game with a historic blast.

Ohtani smacked a leadoff home run against Michael Lorenzen on Tuesday, which was not only his 25th leadoff home run as a Dodger, but the 300th home run of his big league career. Ohtani stands alone as the only Japanese-born player with at least 300 home runs in MLB history— let alone 200.

Ohtani is now 60 percent of the way to his ideal goal of 500 career home runs, as Sonja Chen of MLB.com notes that Dave Roberts and the coaching staff are looking forward to experience that special day.

“It was quite the homer,” manager Dave Roberts said. “It was squared up, got out in a hurry, and 300, he got there pretty quickly for us. I just marvel at him every day…” Even before Ohtani joined the 300 club, the Dodgers were already envisioning him reaching far loftier heights, with Roberts saying they’re “always talking about the 500 club.” ”I mean, he just had a birthday,” Roberts said. “Still young, still strong. So I definitely think 500 is in his future.”

With that 300th career home run, Ohtani now becomes the first Dodger this season to reach the 20-home run plateau, a feat he has achieved in six consecutive seasons. When taking a gander at the Home Run Derby, there have been just two participants announced; Junior Caminero and Ben Rice.

Ohtani is no stranger to competing in the derby, as he did so with the Angels during the 2021 festivities at Coors Field in Denver. As far as Ohtani doing the same again for the Dodgers this year, that dream was shot down by Dave Roberts, reports Jack Harris of the California Post.

“When you’re Shohei, he understands the responsibility he has,” Roberts said. “So I do think that there’s a middle for what’s best for him [during the All-Star Game], with what potentially could be downside, but also what’s best for the game. So don’t see him in the Home Run Derby. Don’t see him pitching. But I do see him taking an at-bat or two, yes.”

The Dodgers bullpen ultimately overshadowed another dominant start from Justin Wrobleski on Tuesday, as the left-hander carved up Colorado’s offense for nine strikeouts over seven innings and allowing just one run.

Wrobleski spoke with Kirsten Watson of SportsNet LA following Tuesday’s loss, getting his personal assessment on what has been a breakout first half.

“I think I’ve thrown the ball pretty well. I think there’s always stuff you can nitpick and try to improve on, but for the most part, in the categories that I try to be good at, I’ve done a pretty good job. It’s just a matter of continuing to hammer those and to do what I need to do to be myself and hammer my strengths.”

MLB.com’s Anne Rogers provided some insight into the Kansas City Royals’ draft approach for later this week, including speaking with scouting director Brian Bridges.

The Royals have been linked to shortstop Jacob Lombard out of Gulliver Prep (Fla.) — if he makes it that far — left-hander Gio Rojas out of Stoneman Douglas (Fla.) HS, outfielder Eric Booth Jr. out of Oak Grove (Fla.) HS, UC Santa Barbara right-hander Jackson Flora and Georgia Tech outfielder Drew Burress, among others. Maybe they shake up the board and go with Huntington Beach (Calif.) HS left-hander/outfielder Jacob Grindlinger, who is just 17 years old after reclassifying for this year’s Draft and has legitimate upside as a two-way player. Grindlinger is No. 16 on MLB Pipeline’s Top 250 Draft prospects list and is rising on boards as Draft day nears.

Prep players usually mean a lot of upside but with more risk, while college players bring a higher floor and more experience — often with a chance to move quickly. Over the full Draft, the Royals are going to value both.

“There’s a good mix of high school and college,” Bridges said. “To tell you the truth, our range is pretty broad. There’s a clear-cut four players, five players in this Draft, and then believe it or not, where we’re picking, you can go a number of different directions. So we have a pretty good balance of what we’re looking at, both high school and college.”

Baseball America had a less-than-clear picture of Kansas City’s strategy for the upcoming draft, with a reported divide between ownership and the scouting department. Fast forward to the 44:00 mark.

Royals Keep’s Yirsandy Rodríguez concludes that Noah Cameron’s curveball “isn’t enough anymore”.

The pitch itself has barely changed. Its velocity, vertical movement, and spin profile have remained almost identical. What changed was the hitters’ response. They’re no longer chasing it at the same rate. One plausible explanation is that the rest of Cameron’s arsenal no longer poses enough of a threat to force hitters to protect the zone early in the count.

The rest of his arsenal supports that theory. None of his other pitches has complemented the curveball with any consistency. His four-seam fastball has allowed a 49.3% HardHit rate and a .280 batting average. The cutter hasn’t provided a reliable alternative either, surrendering a .338 average, while both the slider and sinker have been hit even harder. Combined, those four pitches account for 61.5% of Cameron’s repertoire, compared to just 16.8% for his curveball. The results suggest hitters can afford to wait for something more hittable instead of protecting against his best pitch.

The Royals fall to dead last in The Athletic’s latest power rankings, with Cole Ragans being the personification of the 2026 struggles.

Chad wasn’t wrong in the intro. Bobby Witt Jr. has been very good, which is not an accurate representation of the Royals as a whole. Instead, we’re going with Ragans.

Why? Because Ragans was an All-Star in 2024, and a huge reason Kansas City surprised the sport and made it to the playoffs. Since then, he has pitched in just 21 games — 13 last year and eight this year — as he battles one injury or another. Even when he was on the mound this year, he was just 1-4 with a 4.84 ERA.

At the end of 2024, the Royals seemed to be a team on the brink of a glow-up. But after a disappointing 2025, this season seems to be more of the same

Keith Law’s latest MLB mock draft sends USC left-handed pitcher Mason Edwards to Kansas City at sixth overall.

The Royals could very well go for Jacob Lombard or Eric Booth Jr., but there’s been a rumor for about two months now that they would love to get a college pitcher here, perhaps on a discount (Edwards would certainly come in well under slot), so they can grab several higher-upside high school picks later on, especially since scouting director Brian Bridges appears to have hit already on recent high school picks Josh Hammond and David Shields. If it’s not Edwards, it could be Logan Reddemann or Liam Peterson, and I believe this would be Jackson Flora’s absolute floor.

Kings of Kauffman’s Caleb Moody reacts to Eric Cerantola landing with the San Francisco Giants after the Royals DFA’d the righty.

The Royals may not have liked the results Cerantola was providing, but it seemed wiser to give him the same merciful treatment they did with Mitch Spence after his historically bad outing a few weeks ago and kept him an option. They should’ve been content with what they’d developed with him and allowed for some patience.

It’s not a move that shoots them in the foot per se, but it certainly puts them in a precarious spot should the injury bug look to the bullpen for it’s next victim.

ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel has a draft question and some Royals intel ahead of this weekend’s draft.

One big question: Do the Royals throw a curveball at pick six or play it straight?

Most teams agree on a group of six-plus players in the top tier (Roch Cholowsky, Vahn Lackey, Grady Emerson, Jackson Flora, Jacob Lombard, Eric Booth Jr.), so you’d think picking at No. 6 means the Royals just take the best player left on the board. They tend to have opinions about players who are more pointed than other teams, so the odds are a little higher that the one or two players in that group that Kansas City is less excited about will be the one who gets to their selection. Could this be another Frank Mozzicato moment where they go way down the consensus board to save money and spread it around high school players later? Those rumors are swirling around a few picks in this range, including the Royals’ pick.

Kings of Kauffman’s Matthew Swigonski grades the Royals’ last five first-round picks.

A company linked to the Royals bought the former headquarters of Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Kansas City, near the proposed ballpark district.

England’s Declan Rice wore a Royals cap following his team’s 3-2 victory over Mexico in the World Cup this past weekend.

Pittsburgh Pirates rookie Konnor Griffin will miss 8-10 weeks “due to an issue with the knuckle on the ring finger on his left hand”.

Detroit Tigers third base coach Joey Cora leaves the club over “philosophical differences”.

The Houston Astros demoted offseason acquisition Mike Burrows to Triple-A after a horrendous outing.

The Milwaukee Brewers called up outfield prospect Luis Lara in a bevvy of roster moves.

Ben Rice will represent the New York Yankees in the 2026 Home Run Derby, joining divisional rival Junior Caminero.

FOX reports that 30 million people tuned in for The World Cup’s U.S. versus Belgium, the most-watched soccer telecast in U.S. history.

In Pittsburg, Kansas, Chicken Mary’s and Chicken Annie’s have similar stories and similarly high standards in an overhyped rivalry.

Could Kansas City’s vacant office buildings be turned into affordable housing?

Joe Posnanski announces final submission of new book, FIFTY SEASONS, set to release in February 2027.

Today’s song of the day is Walk a Straight Line by Mack Geiger.

Good morning, baseball fans!

The baseball world seems to believe that the San Francisco Giants will be sellers at the trade deadline, with everyone on the team receiving speculation in some form or another.

Personally, I don’t know if I think that they will actually do that, even if they probably should. This organization rarely tends to make what would be agreed upon as “smart” decisions these days. But maybe this year they will prove me wrong on that.

I’ve seen articles floating trade scenarios about everyone from Logan Webb down to the ball boys, and at this point I think the team should be willing to hear everyone out on everything. But there are always going to be guys that you just don’t want to see go.

I think for me, that would be Jung Hoo Lee. He’s been the most fun thing about watching Giants baseball for me since they traded my last favorite player, Mike Yastrzemski. Which means that it’s almost a lock that they will now trade him too. But I really hope they don’t.

Who is your “hands off!” player as we approach the deadline?

What time do the Giants play today?

The Giants wrap up this series against the Toronto Blue Jays this afternoon at 12:45 p.m. PT.

Good morning.

• Royals outfielder Tyler Tolbert went 5 for 5 against the Mets last night, which tied him for the major league record of hits in 12-straight at-bats. Tolbert did fly out in the ninth inning to end the streak.
• The Pirates’ Ryan O’Hearn had three home runs and ten RBI last night against the Braves. Those ten RBI is a new Pirates team record.
• Gabe Lacques notices that the Pirates started spending money on players like O’Hearn and now they’re starting to win.
• Sticking with the Pirates for just a second, Kiri Oler tried to figure out what’s wrong with Paul Skenes lately. Although Skenes did pitch well last night.
• And more bad news in Pittsburgh as rookie shortstop Konnor Griffith will miss eight-to-ten weeks with a torn tendon in his left ring finger.
• Another remarkable feat accomplished last night was Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani hitting his 300th career home run. He’s the seventh-fastest player to reach 300. Alden Gonzalez reports.
• Jake Mintz writes this is just the first of several amazing milestones that Ohtani is likely to reach, and he reminds us that Ohtani’s success in the majors was not guaranteed when he came over from Japan.
• Seven umpires are expected to take a buyout and retire at the end of this year. This includes the much-maligned CB Bucknor. Bob Nightengale and Kevin Skiver report. Nightengale also notes that this likely opens the door for Jen Pawol to become the first woman full-time MLB umpire.
• David Schoenfield hands out midseason grades to all 30 teams.
• Brett Maguire has ten players who didn’t make the All-Star Team who could have a huge second half.
• Matt Snyder explains how the Rays’ 22-year-old third baseman Junior Caminero is forcing his way into the American League MVP conversation.
• Josh Jacobs has three stats that demonstrate how good Cardinals rookie second baseman JJ Wetherholt has been in the first half.
• Mike Petriello thinks that the Marlins strong start is no illusion.
• Looks like Miami may be buying instead of selling at the Trade Deadline. But what is each team’s biggest need at the Trade Deadline?
• Mike Axisa ranks the top 25 players likely to be traded at the Deadline and what their best fit is.
• Will Sammon thinks struggling Mets right-hander Freddy Peralta is close to getting back his old form (The Athletic sub. req.) Just in time for the Trade Deadline and the no-doubt rumors of him coming to the Cubs.
• There was one minor deal as the Tigers sent right-hander Matt Seelinger to the Mets for cash.
• Matt Snyder argues that everyone wants to see Mike Trout get traded except for the Angels and Trout. He also admits that those are the only two parties that get a vote, even if he’s bummed about it.
• Kiley McDaniel has one thought for all 30 teams heading into the MLB Draft on Saturday.
• Jonathan Mayo looks at the three-way debate for who the White Sox should take with the first pick. I saw so many White Sox fans making up fake Roch Cholowsky jerseys after the team won the draft lottery. Now Cholowosky probably has a less-than 50/50 chance of being the South Side pick.
• Jim Callis redrafts the 2016 Draft, ten years later. It was a good year for the Cubs to not have a first- or second-round pick, if you ask me.
• High school southpaw Brody Bumila has a damaged ulnar collateral ligament. Bumila was expected to be a first-round pick before the injury.
• Anthony Castrovince has the story of high school catcher and draft prospect Alain Gomez-Gudiño, who fled Venezuela to seek asylum in the US.
• Jesse Rogers gets players to share the stories of their draft day. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Ben Brown are among those he spoke to.
• Davy Andrews looks at how the Mets are really missing their former baserunning coach Antoan Richardson.
• Ben Clemens loves to watch Mets outfielder Juan Soto on a hot streak.
• And finally, Katie Woo has more details on Eliezer Alonzo’s emotional major-league debut (The Athletic sub. req.) on Sunday, which was just hours after his sister and stepmother were confirmed dead in the Venezuelan earthquake.