Category: MLB

I think it’s safe to say that many of us have our expectations set low for the upcoming St. Louis Cardinals season based on the newness of the rebuild process that’s underway, but it appears that we’re likely wildly optimistic compared to the new projections just shared by Baseball Prospectus.

The new PECOTA Standings shared by Baseball Prospectus are an eye-opener. Not only do they believe that the St. Louis Cardinals will be cellar dwellers in the National League Central, but they only envision the team with 66 wins and 96 losses. When you dig deeper into their depth chart for the St. Louis Cardinals, you see why. They project the team being outscored 624 to 761. Dang.

The individual player breakdowns are interesting as they see Ivan Herrera being in the lineup as a catcher only 20% of the time with 60% of his appearances coming as a designated hitter. JJ Wetherholt is predicted to be at second base 70% of his appearances with 5% also being at third base and another 5% at shortstop. Pedro Pagés is seen as the St. Louis Cardinals primary catcher behind the plate for 50% of his games. Nolan Gorman is projected as the team’s third baseman only 60% of his games with 10% at first base, 5% at second base and 10% as the Cardinals DH. Anyone else expecting Nolan Gorman to be at first base much? I certainly don’t.

The PECOTA depth chart for St. Louis Cardinals pitchers shows they believe that the team will lean on Riley O’Brien and JoJo Romero as the team’s closers. They see Matthew Liberatore and Andre Pallante averaging 5.6 innings per start with 5 innings for Michael McGreevy and only 4.1 for Dustin May. Kyle Leahy is expected to mix up his appearance between being a starter and a setup role with an average of 4.9 innings per game.

I’m not a gambler, but I’d take the over on what they predict for the St. Louis Cardinals. They have the lowest projection of wins for the team that I’ve seen so far this offseason and I believe that a 66 win campaign is way below what this team will achieve. If the St. Louis Cardinals team were a prospect, I’d say that overall they have a high upside with lots of fundamental work to be done. No, I would not predict 2026 to be a “winning” season when it comes to record, but I believe it will be the first really fruitful season we’ve seen in the past 3 years when it comes to getting the organization pointed back toward their former winning ways. If Baseball Prospectus is right, it will be a painful one to watch.

One other Cardinals news of note today is this. The St. Louis Cardinals today acquired right-handed pitcher George Soriano in a trade with the Washington Nationals in exchange for right-handed pitcher Andre Granillo. I’m doubting that will change the Baseball Prospectus outlook for us much.

Key pitcher of Phillies rival takes major injury hit originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

The Atlanta Braves have had one of the most talented roster in baseball over the last half-decade. The one main obstacle in their title hopes has been injuries.

2026, meet the Braves.

Today the Phillies’ NL East rival placed starting pitcher Spencer Schwellenbach on the 60-day disabled list with bone spurs in his right elbow.

This is yet another significant injury for a team that has dealt with its fair share over the past few years, particularly in its rotation.

Last season, Schwellenbach was 7-4 with a 3.09 ERA in 17 starts before being shut down for the season with a fractured elbow. New Braves manager Walt Weiss said Schwellenbach’s pre-spring training workouts were progressing well before this major setback.

“He was doing great,” Weiss told mlb.com. “He was throwing bullpens, and everything was great. The last bullpen he threw was a week and a half ago or so, and it wasn’t great. That’s when the red flags went off. So we’re hoping for the best.

In 2025, Bryce Elder was the only Braves starter to make more than 23 starts. Chris Sale missed 2 ½ months with a fractured rib cage; Spencer Strider had a hamstring injury that limited him to three starts through the end of May, after missing nearly all of the 2024 season due to elbow surgery. Grant Holmes’ season was shut down at the end of July with a partial UCL tear, that did not require surgery.

Now, Schwellenbach likely won’t take a big-league mound for Atlanta until at least June.

“I always say, before a season even starts, your pitching depth is going to get tested,” Weiss said. “It’s inevitable, you know. But you’d rather not have it happen right away in February.”

For a division race that will be as hotly-contested as it has, perhaps in its history, between the Braves, Phillies, and Mets, losing a pitcher of Schwellenbach’s quality is something Weiss and his team can ill afford.

Justin Verlander has signed a one year deal with the Detroit Tigers, the team announced today. Reports indicate that the deal is for $13 million, with $10 million of that being deferred payments that begin in 2030.

Verlander is returning to the team that originally selected him second overall in the 2004 Draft, and for whom he has had his best seasons. Verlander won the Rookie of the Year Award in 2006 for the Tigers, as well as winning the Cy Young Award and Most Valuable Player Award in 2011. Sadly for Verlander, his Tigers got knocked out in the ALCS in 2011 by a team whose identity I can’t recall, with Verlander giving up 7 runs in 11.1 IP in two starts in that ALCS series.

While with the Tigers, Verlander also had a pair of second place Cy Young finishes, a third place finish, and a fifth place finish. His 24 wins in 2011 tie him with Randy Johnson in 2002 for the most wins in a single season by a pitcher in the 21st century. He was traded to the Houston Astros in 2017, and ended up finishing fifth in the Cy Young balloting that year, while also winning a ring in the trash can banging World Series. Verlander won another ring with Houston in 2022, won finished second in the Cy Young voting in 2018, and won his second and third CYAs in 2019 and 2022, with the 2022 campaign coming after he missed all of 2021 due to Tommy John surgery.

Verlander joined the New York Mets in 2023, but was traded to the Astros at the deadline. Verlander once again made it to the ALCS that year, only to see the Astros get knocked out in memorable fashion against a team I can’t remember. After putting up a 5.48 ERA in 17 starts for Houston in 2024, Verlander joined the San Francisco Giants in 2025, putting up a 3.85 ERA and 3.85 FIP in 152 innings over 29 starts.

Verlander spent too much time with the Astros for me to have warm fuzzies about him, but he’s an inner-circle Hall of Famer, one of the all time greats, and his returning to his original club for what may be his final season is pretty cool.

Julian Aguiar checked in at #17 in this year’s Community Prospect Rankings thanks to the most recent round of voting. The big right-hander is poised to reclaim a spot with the big league Reds at some point in 2026, and my best hope is that he does so well enough – and for long enough – that he’s no longer a prospect and instead is a big leaguer.

Now, we take the voting into the final few spots, with #18 next up on the list!

Per usual, you can find the link to the Google Form for voting right here, yet it’s also embedded at the bottom if you want to read through first and not have to embark upon the painstaking process of scrolling all the way back up here. Both link and embed will be removed once voting closes so you can’t stuff the ballot post facto, however, so be advised that this paragraph will make zero sense if you stumble back across it a year from now.

Here’s how the list has materialized so far:

1. Sal Stewart
2. Alfredo Duno
3. Rhett Lowder
4. Hector Rodriguez
5. Edwin Arroyo
6. Cam Collier
7. Steele Hall
8. Tyson Lewis
9. Chase Petty
10. Arnaldo Lantigua
11. Jose Franco
12. Zach Maxwell
13. Leo Balcazar
14. Adolfo Sanchez
15. Carlos Jorge
16. Aaron Watson
17. Julian Aguiar

A large list of talented names exists below for spot #18. Have at it with the votes!

Liberts Aponte, SS (18 years old)

2025 at a glance: .247/.368/.461 with 7 HR, 9 SB in 193 PA for DSL Rojos (Dominican Summer League)

Pros: 29/35 K/BB showed greatly improving strike zone awareness; already a plus defender at short where he projects to be excellent both with range and arm long-term

Cons: Still not viewed as a potential plus with the bat, though early returns are already better than original scouting reports; has a long way to go in terms of physically maturing

The Reds doled out $1.9 million to sign Aponte last January, and that marked the single largest contract they doled out in that particular international signing window. MLB Pipeline ranked him as the #18 player overall in that class, noting he was ‘one of the most skilled defenders in his class’ and ‘offers solid wheels’ with ‘magic in his hands’ while doling out a 65 grade on his fielding ability.

The rest, we knew, would take time, as he was just liked at 6’0” and 160 lbs, and that even felt like a slight exaggeration. To his credit, though, he mashed 7 homers as a 17 year old in DSL play while showing more power than anticipated, and if that aspect of his game grows to match what’s already known the Reds have found themselves a gem.

It will be interesting to see if the Reds push him up to Arizona Complex League play at all in 2026 or give him another year in the DSL seeing as he just turned 18 years old in November.

Luke Holman, RHP (23 years old)

2025 at a glance: ER, 2 H, 10 K, 4 BB in 9.0 IP with Daytona Tortugas (Class-A Florida State League

Pros: Two plus breaking pitches (slider, curve)

Cons: Not a ton of velocity on his fastball, which sits 91-94 mph

Luke Holman threw 109 pitches for LSU in a 6-2 loss to North Carolina on June 1st, 2024, a game in which he yielded 4 ER in 6.2 IP with 7 H, 11 K, and a lone walk. Since then, he’s thrown just 9.0 IP on a mound, total.

Holman, Cincinnati’s 2nd round pick in 2024, sat out the remainder of 2024 after being drafted, finishing his calendar year with 91.2 IP of 2.75 ERA ball that included a wonderful 0.98 WHIP and 127/33 K/BB. When his 2025 began in Daytona, all signs looked promising in his first pair of starts only for an elbow issue to subsequently sit him down and require Tommy John surgery, and we’ve not seen him since.

He sat 91-94 with his fastball (and touched 96) before, and has a pair of wicked breaking balls that he uses as his out pitches. If he returns to form in 2026 the way he ways before (or even better!), he still profiles as a back-end starter who should move quickly through Cincinnati’s system after dominating SEC play in stints first with Alabama and later with LSU.

Mason Morris, RHP (22 years old)

2025 at a glance: 9.00 ERA, 7/1 K/BB in 4.0 IP with Class-A Daytona Tortugas; 3.29 ERA, 78/31 K/BB in 54.2 IP with University of Mississippi

Pros: Fastball that can touch 100 mph; four-pitch mix

Cons: Lack of experience

Mason Morris landed with Ole Miss in 2023 primarily as a corner infielder, and the now 6’4” 225 lb righty only recently became a full-time pitcher prior to the Reds selecting him with their 3rd round pick in 2025. He’s got projection through the roof, though, with a 100 mph heater, plus cutter, and a pair of other breaking balls that look like they’ve also got the juice.

The question, though, is how Cincinnati plans to use him.

Morris only got a pair of outings as a pro after being drafted, and it appears the Reds have intentions on seeing if he can develop into a starting pitcher. That’s something he’s never really done before, however, and he’ll turn 23 years old in August of 2026. So, we’ll see how long of a leash the Reds give him with that avenue, since if they want to simply keep him in the bullpen there’s very little reason why he shouldn’t rocket through the minors and give them a legit relief arm at the big league level in short order.

Mason Neville, OF (22 years old)

2025 at a glance: .247/.333/.442 with 1 HR, 2 SB in 90 PA with Class-A Daytona Tortugas (Florida State League); .290/.429/.724 with 26 HR, 9 SB in 280 PA with University of Oregon

Pros: 60-grade power with potential plus arm and plus speed & baserunning; chance to stick in CF, though still profiles as a solid RF if moved to the corner; led Division I with 26 HR in final season at Oregon

Cons: Lots of swing and miss in his game, at times, including a 34.4% rate in his short sample with Daytona

The Reds clearly love Neville, as they drafted him in the 18th round out of high school 2022 only to watch him initially attend the University of Arkansas. After transferring to Oregon and swatting more dingers than anyone else in 2025, the Reds went back to him in the 4th round of the most recent draft.

Neville is incredibly toolsy, his left-handed swing producing significant power when he makes contact. He’s good at working walks despite his swing-and-miss proclivities, and posesses the kind of athleticism and speed to be a legitimate CF.

His tiny sample with Daytona has some red flags with the Ks, but it’s such a small sample that it’s hard to take it with too much certainty. For instance, he hit .298/.365/.526 through his first 17 games there only to go 2 for 20 with 9 Ks across his final 6 games – that could, and likely is, all small-sample noise.

Big tools, that Neville. He could well be the steal of the 2025 draft.

Sheng-En Lin, RHP (20 years old)

2025 at a glance: 3.06 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 61/15 K/BB in 47.0 IP split between ACL Reds (Arizona Complex League) and Class-A Daytona Tortugas (Florida State League); .172/.348/.310 with 2 HR in 113 PA with ACL Reds (Arizona Complex League)

Pros: Former two-way player has tons of athleticism; fastball that runs to 97 mph with three-pitch mix including curve and change; excellent command

Cons: Still building up innings; dropping hitting to focus on being a pitcher

Lin was signed for $1.2 million during the 2023 international signing period, and the Taiwan native spent the last trio of seasons in Arizona attempting to do both hitting and pitching. The hit tool stalled, though, as his K-rate spiked and power never arrived, and on pitching he’ll now focus after making a late-season cameo with Daytona after being promoted to full-season ball for the first time.

In very, very small samples, his work on the mound has been excellent. He’s the owner of an impressive 4.07 K/BB rate for his short career, and that’s with an impressive 11.7 K/9 that shows just how much of a strikeout pitcher he can be. His secondary pitches both flash plus grades, at times, and more consistency there with a fastball that hits 97 mph already (with perhaps more velocity coming as he focuses solely on the mound) could see him rocket up these rankings in short order…if he hits the ground running in April.

Ricky Cabrera, 3B (21 years old)

2025 at a glance: .187/.276/.240 with 0 HR, 0 SB in 89 PA with High-A Dayton Dragons (Midwest League)

Pros: Above-average power, speed, and hit tool, with an arm that’s good enough to play at 3B (if he can find his accuracy)

Cons: An absolutely lost 2025 season that included a season-ending knee injury

The optimist in you sees that Cabrera only just turned 21 years old in October, and in 2024 posted a 110 wRC+ with 11 HR and 19 SB in the pitcher-friendly confines of the Florida State League with Daytona (with said wRC+, along with his OPS, both ranking among that league’s top 10). That same optimist probably would point out that 2025 saw the Venezuela native play in the cold April weather of the Midwest League with Dayton for the first time, and he struggled mightily in those new conditions before a knee injury rendered his 2025 completely lost.

There’s still a lot to like about Cabrera, even though he’s physically matured off shortstop at this juncture and likely profiles as a 3B, or potentially at 2B defensively – with his defense needing just as much improvement as his bat at the moment, too. If the batting cage stuff can begin to translate onto the field again post-injury, there’s still a ton to like about the former $2.7 million signee and Top 5 overall international prospect from the 2022 class.

I’m assuming there is no pessimist in you, for now.

Tyler Callihan, IF/OF (26 years old)

2025 at a glance: .303/.410/.528 with 4 HR, 6 SB in 106 PA with AAA Louisville Bats (International League); 1 for 6 with an RBI in 4 G with Cincinnati Reds

Pros: Plus bat speed from the left-hand side of the plate; advanced approach at the plate and potentially solid ability to take a walk

Cons: Plays a little bit of everywhere because his defense isn’t great anywhere; injuries have persisted with him just about every single year since being drafted back in 2019

Callihan had barely made his big league debut (and picked up his first career big league hit) in 2025 before he went crashing into the wall in foul territory chasing a Matt Olson liner and shattered pretty much every bone in his arm. That ended his season, obviously, something that Callihan has had to hear told to him just about every year since being drafted – he’s even had Tommy John surgery despite obviously not being a pitcher.

If and when he can stay healthy, there’s always been a bit to like about his offensive potential, however. Drafted as a bat-first guy out of high school in 2019, he signed an over-slot bonus to turn pro because people knew then he could hit, and that’s still the case despite him always having the look of being rusty off a long layoff.

He’s got a bit of speed, a bit of pop, a bit of just about everything, and he also now has experience at 2B, LF, 1B, and even some 3B back in the day, all while swinging from the left side. That has him firmly in the mix for the final roster spot on the Reds come Opening Day, as none of their other litany of utility infield options has both a) big league experience and b) bats from the left side.

Hansel Jimenez, SS/3B (19 years old)

2025 at a glance: .269/.374/.445 with 5 HR, 12 SB in 147 PA for DSL Reds (Dominican Summer League); .229/.345/.364 with 4 HR, 3 SB in 142 PA for Sydney Blue Sox (Australian Baseball League)

Pros: 70 grade raw power (per FanGraphs) with potential to be a plus runner, fielder, and have a plus arm

Cons: Potential swing and miss issues (25.9% K-rate in the DSL, 64% contact rate); may end up at 3B long term

Signed for an undisclosed amount during the 2024 international signing period, Jimenez has immediately hit the ground running in prospect circles with his mix of potentially elite athleticism and batted-ball metrics that jump right off the page.

After dabbling in DSL play in 2024 at age 17 (6 for 14 with a double and 4 steals in 5 G), he repeated that level in 2025 and more than held his own with an .820 OPS. Those solid surface stats hide his pretty monumental 45% hard-hit rate, 106 mph EV90, and maximum exit velocity of 113 mph – all numbers posted by an 18 year old. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs has him ranked 12th (right behind Tyson Lewis) and notes the multiple similarities between the two, though Jimenez is a full year younger.

The Mets have reportedly added another reliever into the mix, acquiring left-handed pitcher Bryan Hudson from the White Sox for cash considerations. Chicago had designated Hudson for assignment back on February 4. To make room on the 40-man roster, the club transferred Reed Garett to the 60-day IL.

Hudson was drafted by the Cubs in the third round of the 2015 MLB Draft but never appeared in the majors for the club, instead electing for free agency after the 2022 season. He signed with the Dodgers and went on to make six appearances for Los Angeles in 2023 and allowed seven earned runs over 8 2/3 innings. He was traded to the Brewers, where he had his best season in 2024. In his lone full season in Milwaukee, he posted a 1.73 ERA and a 3.60 FIP with 62 strikeouts over 62 1/3 innings, finishing the year with a 2.5 bWAR. He returned in 2025 but was far less effective, posting a 4.35 ERA (five earned runs over 10 1/3 innings) before getting designated for assignment in July. He was picked up by the White Sox, where he allowed three earned runs over 4 2/3 innings.

Hudson will look to earn a spot in a bullpen that has no shortage of names competing for the chance to make the Opening Day roster. Hudson’s acquisition is especially noteworthy following the announcement by David Stearns that A.J. Minter is expected to return from his injury in early May. That could offer Hudson an opening to snag a spot this spring, as the only other definite lefty in the pen is Brooks Raley.

Justin Verlander is a Detroit Tiger again, hoping to lead his original team to a third trip to the World Series.

Verlander, the 266-game winner who will celebrate his 43rd birthday this month, agreed to a one-year, $13 million contract with the Tigers, the club announced Feb. 10.

That presumably wraps up a Tigers off-season that finished with plenty of fireworks: The three-year, $115 million agreement with left-hander Framber Valdez, Tarik Skubal's historic $32 million arbitration victory and now Verlander.

The presence of Skubal, set to become a free agent this season, Valdez, Jack Flaherty and 2025 All-Star Casey Mize ensures the Tigers won't need to lean on Verlander for much more than 150 innings. He's made no secret that he'd like to get to 300 wins, yet playing for an offense-poor club in San Francisco last season, posted a 4-11 record with a 3.85 ERA.

He finished particularly strongly, with a 1.96 ERA and 3.72 fielding independent pitching over his last seven starts.

The Tigers would take that. They reached the 2006 World Series in Verlander's rookie year, and again in 2012, when they were swept by the San Francisco Giants. Last year, Detroit blew a 14-game lead and lost the division title to Cleveland, yet advanced to the American League Division Series as a wild card, losing a five-game thriller to Seattle.

Perhaps an old hand can help nudge them over the top.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Justin Verlander returns to Detroit Tigers: Contract details

The Guardians dropped their 2026 promo schedule! There is a lot of cool stuff here, from the Manzo-lorian bobblehead to the Jose Ramirez Camp Shirt. However, it is noteworthy that there is nothing for Steven Kwan. It’s starting to look more and more like his future will not be in Cleveland, but we will see.

Our 2026 Promo Schedule has arrived! 😏https://t.co/4SQPvgr7Ag#GuardsBallpic.twitter.com/34TebdrRTa

— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) February 9, 2026

Former Guardian Konnor Pilkington signed a minor league deal with the Tigers.

The Guardians 37th overall pick in 2022, Justin Campbell, looks to finally be healthy and on track to make his pro debut this Spring.

We’re getting closer and closer to Baseball being back. Pitchers and catchers report in Arizona very soon and before we know it, Spring Training will be here.

Projection systems by their nature tend to be conservative, which is why it’s rare to see such a clear outlier. When it comes to predicting baseball records, the Dodgers are standing out.

FanGraphs has the Dodgers projected for about 100 wins, 99.6 to be exact as of Tuesday morning. It’s notable because only one other team is projected for even 90 wins, with the Braves at 91.5. Similar for PECOTA projections at Baseball Prospectus, with the Dodgers at 105.2 wins and the next-best team (Mariners) at 93.1.

Seeing a projection of 105 wins is eye-popping given all the regression that goes into these systems, and it’s not the first time for this era of Dodgers baseball. Last year they were projected for 104 wins, the highest PECOTA projected win total since 2009.

“Baseball projections are supposed to end with most teams bunched up together because that’s just how baseball works: the small talent disparity between most squads and the sport’s inherently random nature come together to create tons of equality,” wrote Mario Delgado Genzor at Baseball Prospectus. “This is not supposed to be possible, for one team to be so clearly head and shoulders above the rest.”

The Dodgers now been projected by PECOTA for triple-digit wins in six of the last seven seasons, but it makes sense given that they have a .629 winning percentage dating back to 2017, a 102-win pace over 162 games, with seasons of 111, 106, 106, 104, and 100 wins during that time. They finished with the best record in MLB in four of those nine years, and were one win shy of the best record two other times.

It’s a little bit funny that the Dodgers won the World Series in each of the last two years without winning 100 games. Granted, their 98 wins were the most in MLB in 2024, but they were downright slumming it to 93 wins last year but had every key player healthy in October.

The Dodgers added premium free agents Kyle Tucker and Edwin Díaz to shore up their biggest weaknesses, and boast enviable pitching depth that might be their best to date. Their ultimate goal obviously is to win another World Series, but they’ll have to win a lot of games in the regular season to get there.

Today’s question is how many games will the Dodgers win in the 2026 regular season? Let us know in the comments below.

Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns announced that shortstop Francisco Lindorwill be evaluated on Wednesday for a stress reaction in his left hamate bone.

Per Stearns, Lindor reported soreness in his left hand/wrist area over the last couple of days, and will see a specialist on Wednesday to determine if surgery is necessary. 

If Lindor does require surgery, it would likely include a six-week recovery time, including a ramp-up period, which means he could still be back by Opening Day.

"Even if it does require a surgery, we would remain optimistic that Francisco would be back for Opening Day," Stearns said.

According to Stearns, Lindor has had soreness in the hamate area on and off for “a couple of years.”

“He’s usually able to grind through it, and he’s done it," Stearns said. "I don’t know when he first felt it, but I think it just persisted to the point where he felt like he should say something about it. Once we examined it a little bit more yesterday, our medical staff determined that he should see a specialist."

This isn't the first bit of injury news for Lindor this offseason. Following the 2025 season, Lindor had a procedure on his right (throwing) elbow that was described as a "minor cleanup." As a result, Lindor is not competing with team Puerto Rico in this year's World Baseball Classic.

Lindor is coming off his first All-Star season as a Met, as he slashed .267/.346/.466 with 31 home runs, 86 RBI and 117 runs scored.

Stearns said multiple times that the Mets are optimistic and even "confident" that if Lindor undergoes surgery, he'll be back by Opening Day. When pressed on other internal options at shortstop if Lindor isn't back by March 26, Stearns said the club has a number of players with shortstop experience in camp, including Ronny Mauricio and Vidal Brujan.

However, it sounds as if the club wants to keep the recently acquired Bo Bichette at third base, rather than move him around the infield.

Mets star Juan Soto is moving from right field to left field this season, president of baseball operationsDavid Stearnsannounced on Tuesday.

"Over the last month or so, as (Carlos Mendoza) and Juan were talking about the season, Juan was working out in left field because he's gonna play left field for the DR in the WBC," Stearns explained. "As they had their conversations, he felt really comfortable there. It made sense for us from a roster perspective. So we're gonna go forward with it, and everyone is on board with it.

"Not something we had really contemplated coming into the offseason, but as we've had conversations over the last month it made sense for all involved."

Speaking later in the afternoon, Mendoza said that he and Soto had many conversations in the offseason, including Mendoza visiting the outfielder in the Dominican Republic, and it was probably around late December when Mendoza and Soto first seriously entertained the idea of Soto making a position change. 

Talks started with Mendoza asking about where Soto would play for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic. When Soto explained that he was preparing to play left, with Fernando Tatis Jr. playing right, Mendoza asked about Soto making the change for the Mets.

"I asked how he would feel if he played left field for us, and he was like 'I’m willing to do whatever. If you want me to pitch, Mendy, I’ll pitch,' kind of with that smile," Mendoza explained. "I said ‘Seriously speaking here, is that something that you would consider if it makes sense for both?' and he was like 'Absolutely.' He reinforced it and said 'I’m comfortable in right, I’m comfortable in left, whatever the team needs.'"

Soto has played mostly right field over the last few seasons, including in 2025, when he started all 157 games there.

However, he has started 458 big league games in left field, including six in 2024 and 154 in 2023 -- when every one of his starts in the field for the Padres came in left.

"I think it's just where he is comfortable," Stearns noted. "He's done it in the past. He feels good over there. We've talked about it a lot, we've got a lot of athletic outfielders -- both at the major league level and nearing the major league level. And so having right field available to them isn't a bad outcome.

"We were also comfortable with Juan in right field and having left field available to them. As we were talking with Juan, it frankly didn't make a lot of sense to bounce him back and forth from corner to corner during spring training. He's comfortable in left, it fits with our roster, so we'll go forward with it."

While Soto has a strong arm that he utilizes well, he was near the bottom of the league last season when it came to Outs Above Average. The same was the case in 2024 and in 2023 (when he was in left field).

Before 2023, the 2019 campaign was the last time Soto played left field regularly in a full season. That year, he was in the 88th percentile in OAA.

With Soto shifting to left, that means right field will be a competition between Carson Benge and others.

Benge has lots of experience in right field, including 26 games last season. He was primarily a right fielder during his college career with Oklahoma State. He can also play center and left.  

Stearns has spoken highly of Benge throughout the offseason, noting that he has a legitimate chance to make the team out of spring training as a starting outfielder. 

In addition to Benge, other possibilities for right field include Tyrone Taylor and Brett Baty.

Baty has yet to play right field professionally, but has 29 games of left field experience in the minors (and one game of experience there in the majors).

At the conclusion of the 2014 season, Brian Cashman certainly knew his team was approaching a pivot point. After missing the postseason for the first time since 2008, the Yankees GM was tasked with replacing a franchise icon — Derek Jeter, whose retirement represented the end of an era. To this end, Cashman swung a three-team trade for Arizona’s Didi Gregorius, a little-known shortstop who the team hoped could fill the captain’s shoes. Much of the narrative around the team that offseason revolved around this crucial decision. But another offseason acquisition would prove nearly as exemplary.

Andrew Miller
Signing Date: December 5, 2014
Contract: Four years, $36 million

After a historic run at the University of North Carolina, Andrew Miller was as close to a sure-thing prospect as they come. The Tigers took the 6-foot-7 lefty sixth overall in the 2006 MLB Draft. After he made just three outings at Class-A, Detroit could wait no longer to see their phenom in the midst of a pennant race, calling him up to the bigs for an eight-game stint to end the year, with his debut coming on August 30th at Yankee Stadium.

Perhaps due in part to this meteoric rise, Baseball America ranked Miller as the 10th-best prospect in baseball entering the 2007 season. He struggled in 13 starts that year but, at the age of 22, still appeared destined for success.

That’s when the Tigers made him available as the centerpiece of an all-time blockbuster that would alter the fortunes of two franchises. In the deal that netted them Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, Detroit shipped their former top prospect off to the Marlins. But, after he posted a 5.89 ERA in 220 innings across three seasons, Florida threw in the towel too, pawning Miller off on the Red Sox. When he fared no better in his first season in Boston, the former can’t-miss prospect appeared to be a textbook bust.

That’s when the Red Sox made a decision that would resurrect Miller’s career. As he approached his 27th birthday, Boston converted their failed starter into a full-time reliever. The lanky lefty excelled in his new role, leveraging his arm talent into nearly-doubled strikeout rates from his days in the rotation. After two-and-a-half years as a key cog in Boston’s bullpen, they flipped him once again at the 2014 trade deadline, this time to the Orioles in a trade that brought back Eduardo Rodríguez. He quickly became a Baltimore folk hero of sorts, allowing just three runs in 20 innings as the Orioles took the division before holding opponents to just one hit and no runs in 7.1 playoff innings.

A free agent after this remarkable campaign, the player who’d nearly pitched his way out of baseball was now a hot commodity once again. With the Yankees losing their incumbent closer David Robertson to free agency, they were in the market for a top bullpen arm to pair with Dellin Betances. With Robertson commanding $46 million from the White Sox, Cashman instead made a savvy pivot to a slightly more cost-effective option, signing Miller to a four-year, $36 million contract. He revealed after the fact that his new fireman had an offer on the table elsewhere for $40 million that he eschewed for the chance to pitch in the pinstripes.

In addition to the money differential, the ability to pair Miller with the even-taller Betances — who stood six-foot-eight — may have driven Cashman’s decision. “I was taught the bigger, the better,” Cashman said. “It doesn’t always play out that way, but I like big power pitchers, so I do have a lot of those types, and I’ve always gravitated to those types.”

Cashman initially demurred when asked which of his two bullpen giants would close upon the signing. “I’m not in that mode,” the GM said. “I’m actually in the mode of, well, this was an opportunity too good to pass up, especially without a draft pick attached to it. It protects us and gives us diversification and reinforces our efforts to continue to have a strong bullpen.”

Manager Joe Girardi reinforced this, indicating the team would begin the year alternating between Miller and Betances in the ninth based on matchups. But Miller put this tandem to rest quickly, tearing off a 17.2-inning scoreless streak to begin his Yankees tenure. By the time he allowed his first run, he’d saved 13 games and was firmly entrenched as the team’s closer. He’d finish the season with a 2.04 ERA in 61.2 innings en route to the Mariano Rivera Relief Pitcher of the Year Award, the first Yankee to take home the honor since it was renamed for their franchise’s icon.

The following offseason, the Yankees somewhat surprisingly unseated their newly feted closer, trading for Aroldis Chapman from the Reds and installing the Cuban Missile in the ninth. Miller was even more effective in a setup role, pitching to a 1.39 ERA through July as he earned his first All-Star berth. Along with Chapman and Betances, Miller formed a trio known as “No Runs DMC,” a fearsome late-game combination that struck out 41.8 percent of opponents during their time together.

“I had the best seat in the house for probably the two most electric pitchers in baseball,“ Miller later said humbly of his partnership with Chapman and Betances.

Unfortunately, the team’s fortunes did not follow their bullpen’s. At the Trade Deadline, sitting at .500 and seven games back of the division lead, the Yankees commenced a fire sale that included trades of Miller, Chapman, Carlos Beltrán, and Ivan Nova. The rare rebuild allowed the Yankees to import a bevy of talent, headlined by Gleyber Torres in the Chapman trade.

For Miller, their haul from Cleveland included Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield, Ben Heller, and J.P. Feyereisen, a king’s ransom in the context of how well-regarded Frazier and Sheffield were at the time. The talented Frazier would spend a frustrating and controversial five years with New York, while Sheffield ended up getting flipped for James Paxton, who struggled with injuries during his two years in pinstripes but was mostly effective when healthy, including a memorable six-inning, one-run start in Game 5 of the 2019 ALCS to keep the Yankees’ season alive.

For his part, Miller continued his run of dominance, pitching to a 1.48 ERA through his first year-and-a-half in Cleveland. He was a rubber-armed playoff hero during their run to the 2016 AL pennant, winning ALCS MVP honors and recording a 1.40 ERA across 10 games and 19.1 innings, pitching in just about any scenario and not running out of steam until the climactic World Series Game 7 against the Cubs. Back for more playoff action the following October, he was matched up against his old Yankees teammates in a memorable ALDS. The veteran allowed just one run in five innings, but it was an iconic lefty-on-lefty solo homer off the bat of Greg Bird that broke a scoreless tie in the seventh inning of Game 3 to key the Yankees’ series comeback from down 2-0.

After parts of three seasons in Cleveland, Miller pitched for three more years in St. Louis before retiring at the age of 36. In a testament to his determination, the former bust took a circuitous route to finally realizing his vast potential. And, while his time in New York was brief, it ranks among the most dominant runs of relief work in the franchise’s history.

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See more of the “50 Most Notable Yankees Free Agent Signings in 50 Years” series here.

Inspiration.

The Diamondbacks traded away Blaze Alexander.  Many months ago, I saw the possibility that he might outperform Jordan Lawlar.  Was it my tendency to root for the underdog?   Now, my view is that the two were going to be worlds apart.  Therefore, the loss by trading him away was small.

The big question:  Will Kade Strowd make an impact? How does he compare to other Diamondback pitchers?

The Daily Question About the Trade.

My grade for the trade was A. The bullpen may be the weakest link in the team. By strengthening the weakest link, Kade Strowd will likely positively impact wins more than Blaze would have.

After deciding five metrics that the Diamondbacks need from the bullpen pitchers, I compared Strowd to Clarke and Loaisiga (minor league contract, but I’m very optimistic he will earn a spot the opening day bullpen). Strowd was better in 4 of the 5 metrics, which increased my grade.

In the trade, the Diamondbacks received two extra players (Wellington Aracena and Jose Mejia), who could make a future impact. These players increased my grade.

Three Recently Acquired Pitchers.

Let’s compare Kade Strowd to Taylor Clarke and Jonathan Loaisiga.   

A caveat is that Taylor Clarke could have a different role (last season he sometimes closed and sometimes pitched two innings).  Therefore, comparing him to Kade Strowd and Jonathan Loaisiga might be like comparing apples to oranges. Let’s do it anyway.

First, what will we compare?

Foundational Requirements.  The two requirements are fastball (FB) velocity of at least 94 MPH (graphically correlated with success of Diamondbacks relief pitchers) and xERA of less than 4.82 (last season’s average ERA for Diamondbacks relief pitchers per Baseball Reference).  Each of the three pitchers meet the foundational requirements.

Ground Balls to Third Base.  With the addition of Nolan Arenado at third base, I would look for pitchers with high ground ball rates, and especially high ground ball rates to third base. Each of the three pitchers has a high rate of ground balls to third base.  However, Kade Strowd is a level above the other two pitchers. 

On 21 January, when I searched for possible relief pitchers to acquire, only Brad Keller (who had been acquired by the Phillies in December) had a higher percentage of ground balls to third base. On this metric, Kade Strowd is among the best in the Majors.

Hard Hit Percentage per Baseball Savant.  In general, pitchers who limit batters’ hard hits will be most successful, especially when their team emphasizes great defense like the Diamondbacks.  Kade Strowd is at a stellar level, better than the other two pitchers.  Last season, all but 27 qualified batters had a season average better than Kade Strowd’s 31.3 hard hit percentage.  On this metric, Kade Strowd is among the best in the Majors.

Worth note is that Diamondback Geraldo Perdomo is an exception to the rule.  Despite his 31.9% hard hits, my view is that he is an exceptional batter.

Strikeouts Minus Walks.  This metric has higher predictive power (of future pitching performance) than is generally known.  That’s why I decided to instead look at (strikeouts minus walks) divided by PAs, instead of walk rate.

Taylor Clarke was at a higher level than the other two pitchers.  Strowd’s .105 was very slightly below last season’s Diamondbacks average of .11.

Got-The-Job-Done (GTJD).  For years, I’ve applied this metric when writing about relief pitchers.  GTJD is defined as the percentage of appearances with allowing an earned run and without allowing an inherited runner to score. 

Kade Strowd’s 80% GTJD was outstanding.  It was higher than the other two pitchers.

Homers per PA.  Kade Strowd’s .010 homers per PA was outstanding.  It was much higher than the other two pitchers.

Kade Strowd’s homers per PA may not be sustainable next season.  Nevertheless, it will likely be better than average. 

The following table shows the comparison of the three pitchers. Circled are two important metrics for Kade Strowd. Data from Baseball Savant and Baseball Reference.

Pitch Selection.

At the top level, Kade Strowd pitches about 40% cutters, Taylor Clarke pitches 40% sliders, and Jonathan Loaisiga pitches mostly sinkers. Nevertheless, each of the pitchers seems to have a wider variety of pitches than the typical reliever. The following tables compare Kade Strowd to Taylor Clarke and Jonathan Loaisiga. Data from Baseball Savant.

What did Mike Hazen say?

“Felt like he [Kade Strowd] took a pretty big step forward last year at the very end of the season. We like his stuff and he adds into the bullpen mix that we have — guys that have some flexibility.”—  Mike Hazen

“He [Taylor Clarke] was very consistent.  He had a really good second half. We feel like he pounds the strike zone. We think he could fit into that longer role, multiple-inning, one-plus role. We feel like there’s versatility there. Obviously, we know the makeup and have a long history with him. Good fit for us.” — Mike Hazen

“I think he’s [Jonathan Loaisiga] got great stuff. We’ve always liked him from afar.” — Mike Hazen

Summary.

The Diamondbacks traded for Kade Strowd. He will make an impact on the bullpen, the weakest link on the team

After deciding five metrics that the Diamondbacks need from the bullpen pitchers, I compared Strowd to Clarke and Loaisiga. Strowd was better in 4 of the 5 metrics, including Got-The-Job-Done, which is important for relief pitchers. His excellent homers per PA was so good that it is likely unsustainable. Furthermore, Strowd was among the best in the league in most ground balls to third base and least hard-hit percentage.

Strowd pitches about 40% cutters, with four additional types of pitches.

Mike Hazen said that at the end of last season, Kade Strowd took a pretty big step forward.

We’re trying a new series at Royals Review, a daily mid-day question of the day to hear about your opinions on a fun or pressing question affecting the Royals or baseball in general. Chime in and drop your answers below!

Spring training is here! Pitchers and catchers report today, and will have their first workout tomorrow, with the first full squad workout on Monday. The first spring training game will be on February 20 against the Rangers, as the team tunes up for the season opener on March 27.

Now that spring training is upon us, there are certain storylines Royals fans will be most interested in, such as:

Does Carter Jensen look big league ready?

Is Jac Caglianone elevating the ball?

Is Isaac Collins leading off in games?

Does Jonathan India look improved from last year?

Is Cole Ragans healthy?

Is Kris Bubic healthy?

Where is Michael Massey playing?

What non-roster invitees are making an impression?

Is anyone in the BEST SHAPE OF THEIR LIFE?

What will you be looking for as camp begins? What Royals spring training storyline do you think is most important?

Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) standings projections are out. Brewers fans won’t like them much.

At BP, Jonathan Judge has described the challenges that projection systems face with teams like the Brewers. Those challenges can be boiled down as such:

• Teams with more established players on longer-term deals are easier to project, both in terms of playing time and performance
• Small-market teams like the Brewers, because of their lack of large financial commitments, are more likely to rifle through a whole bunch of players during a season, making the ‘playing time’ aspect of the projections even more difficult
• To build on that point, teams with good farm systems (like Milwaukee) make this even more difficult because if one player doesn’t click they can just keep trying until they find one who does
• The quality of publicly available data in the minor leagues (especially at the A+ and AA levels) is not as good, so projections become more difficult

Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal adds another thought to this discussion:

Dan Szymborski at FanGraphs has also discussed the challenges that the Brewers present when working on wins projections. To him, it essentially boils down to: the Brewers use a whole bunch of players, more than most teams, and pretty much none of them are bad. It’s an unusual template for a team, and while the Brewers aren’t completely lacking in star power, the top end of their individual projections don’t really line up with the best teams in the league. Instead, they make up that gap with depth, and an ability to turn reclamation projects into usable pieces, most notably in the bullpen. At last check, ZiPS, the FanGraphs system that Szymborski created, projects the Cubs for 87 wins and the Brewers for 86.

PECOTA also projects the Cubs at the top of the NL Central, which by itself isn’t especially egregious. But they project the Cubs for 10 more wins than the Brewers, who they have losing 16-17 more games than they lost in 2025. Here are the NL Central’s projected records, rounding to the nearest win:

1. Chicago Cubs, 91-71
2. Milwaukee Brewers, 81-81 (technically at 80.5-81.5, below .500)
3. Pittsburgh Pirates, 80-82
4. Cincinnati Reds, 79-83
5. St. Louis Cardinals, 66-96

Milwaukee has just a 10.5% chance to win the division according to these projections, with a 31.2% chance of making the postseason.

I’m not trying to disparage PECOTA or the good work they do at Baseball Prospectus, but… if you did a straw poll around the league and asked how many people thought the Brewers would finish below .500, how many do you think would say so?

As part of the projections, PECOTA also releases projections for runs scored and runs allowed, and this is where you can sort of see why they’re so down on the Brewers. They have Milwaukee projected for just 693 runs, which is better than only the Rockies, Cardinals, Nationals, and Marlins in the National League — four teams that are barely trying. Yes, PECOTA thinks the Pirates will score more runs than the Brewers this season. Last season, the Brewers scored 806 runs, behind only the Dodgers in the National League. The Pirates, who are projected for 713 runs, scored 583, worst in the majors.

PECOTA also projects the Brewers for 705 runs allowed, which isn’t bad but that’s more projected runs allowed than the Dodgers, Cubs, and Braves in the NL. Last season, Milwaukee allowed just 634 runs, bested only by the Padres in the senior circuit.

It’s difficult to see exactly why PECOTA predicts such massive swings in Milwaukee’s runs scored and runs allowed totals. It’s unclear if the loss of Caleb Durbin is included in these projections, but he and Isaac Collins are the only significant losses on the offensive side. As for pitchers, yes, the loss of Freddy Peralta is significant, but the additions of Brandon Sproat, Kyle Harrison, and Ángel Zerpa have to count for something.

Brewers fans will be excused if they take the PECOTA projections with a massive grain of salt. Last year, the system projected the Brewers for an 80-82 record, a total that they outperformed by 17 wins. PECOTA also projected the Brewers for 79 wins in 2024, and they ended up winning 93 games. Hopefully, 2026 will be more of the same.