Category: MLB

Tacoma Rainiers

The Rainiers managed a split this week, debuting their shiny new star prospects in hitter-friendly Las Vegas. Esteemed sluggers Lazaro Montes and Michael Arroyo donned the Rainiers jersey for the first time in their young careers, putting them just a short drive and a handful of AB’s from a big league promotion. There’s not yet a meaningful sample to draw any real conclusions (especially in such an extreme hitting environment), but each of them has already launched their first PCL homer and are looking more and more comfortable by the game. They’re must see TV.

Not to be outdone, red-hot Ryan Bliss was on fire at the plate this week, collecting 18 (!!!) hits in the six game slate. This wasn’t just empty contact either; Bliss managed a homer, a triple, and five doubles on the week with a pair of stolen bases to boot. He’s been absolutely unbelievable this month and is beginning to look a bit more like the player he’s been in the past. Though his season numbers are still in a tough spot, look for him to continue this torrid stretch and regrow his stock as a potential major league contributor.

Arkansas Travelers

The Travs wound up splitting the series this week despite missing their fearless rotation leaders in Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan to the Futures Game on Sunday Morning. Both Sloan and Anderson appeared in the game, working scoreless innings, and Anderson let the opposing hitters know exactly what he thought of them with an ice cold walk off the mound in the first inning of action.

Compounding the temporary leave of absence from the rotation leaders, this is the first iteration of the Travs lineup without the tandem of the aforementioned Montes and Arroyo, each of whom more than earned their promotion up to Triple-A. Despite the current lack of star power, there’s plenty of names that have really turned into contributors; Charlie Pagliarini, Caleb Cali, and Hunter Fitz-Gerald don’t get a lot of buzz in prospect circles for various reasons, but each of them have really produced and have carved out a nice niche in this system. They’re one’s to watch out for as under-the-radar organizational depth.

Everett AquaSox

Another week, another split for the stagnant AquaSox this week. This squad is so immensely talented on the offensive side of the ball, but it’s been a mixed bag from the pitching staff this season. Certainly not an easy environment to pitch in due to the Baby Park conditions of Everett’s home field, but they’ll need a bit more from the staff if they really want to get things rolling.

After a rough few months at the dish, top prospect Luke Stevenson has looked great at the plate this month and is finally stringing some really nice AB’s together. Whether it’s intentional or not, Stevenson seems to have gotten less passive at the plate and is seeking out damage rather than waiting for the “perfect pitch”; having run massive walk rates up to this point, Stevenson’s walk rate has considerably diminished in the month of July, and his numbers have subsequently taken off. This could very easily be a product of a small sample size, but if a tangible change actually has been made, to see such strong results is a fantastic sign. On the month, Stevenson is slashing .351/.415/.730, good for an OPS of 1.145. With a strong defensive foundation, the potential with Stevenson remains sky high.

Yet another prospect with seemingly limitless potential, Jonny Farmelo logged yet another successful series at the dish, popping a homer in the middle of a six-hit week. Farmelo’s really gotten into some great power this year, and the underlying metrics seem to back that production up; he’s been rocketing the ball all over the ballpark and letting his exceptional speed on the basepaths turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples. He’s an electrifying player that should probably get a look at Double-A Arkansas once all the draftees are assigned to their new homes.

Inland Empire 66ers

The 66ers dropped the series by a score of 4-2 this week, though they managed to play in one of the most chaotic games of baseball I’ve ever seen. Almost immediately falling behind 16-0, IE managed to post an 11 run seventh inning to cut the lead to just two, then immediately give up a six spot in the bottom of the eighth to seemingly put the game out of reach. Comically, they managed seven more runs in the ninth, but came up short, losing by a final score of 22-21. 33 total hits, 20 walks, 6 errors, and 43 runs. What a ride.

This team is about to look considerably different in the coming weeks; the M’s went exceptionally heavy on the college demographic in this past weekend’s draft, and their particular emphasis on hitters means their lower minors rosters are going to get crowded quick. Lots of fun new names, but the roster composition could be a bit tricky to sort out unless there’s a large of contingency of these draft guys that end up being “dev only”, high performance camp types. Regardless, this team absolutely needs an infusion of talent; they’ve really struggled to find consistency this year, and some big-time bats would work wonders for this lineup.

For those that have been curious, Jackson Steensma made his return to the mound after receiving a shot in his arm for some discomfort. He logged two scoreless innings and should be on a slow ramp up in the coming weeks.

ACL Mariners

It was an objectively brutal week for star prospect Nick Becker; logging 20 PA’s, he struck out 11 times and managed just two hits (a double and a homer, for what it’s worth). Flush that one and move on.

On a more positive note, Yorger Bautista has been much better this month and seems to be getting some positive regression come his way after some unfortunate luck early in the season. Slashing .355/.375/.548 on the month, Bautista has lowered his K% significantly and may have turned a corner offensively. If everything clicks with him, he could be one of the better prospects in this entire system. Hopefully he closes out 2026 with a bang and cements himself as a future foundational talent.

Strong candidate for the all name team, OF Brayden Corn has been quite good for the Baby M’s this season and looks like he’ll be getting a shot at affiliate ball sooner than later. He was a 15th rounder last season, and though it’s not overwhelmingly loud tools, he’s posted a .932 OPS with 10 stolen bases.

DSL Mariners

It may sound like a broken record at this point, but this DSL roster absolutely mashes. It wouldn’t come as much of a surprise if this team produces several notable prospects in the coming years, and unheralded guys like Elias Perez and Fabian Gonzalez are playing themselves into the spotlight. Gregory Pio and Juan Rijo are still leading the way, but this is as fun of a roster as we’ve seen since Lazaro Montes and Michael Arroyo were making their professional debuts nearly a half decade ago.

DJ LeMahieu’s career is in so many ways one of great contrasts. A bolt-out-of-the-blue signing ahead of the 2019 season, he went from being a former NL batting champion in the game’s friendliest park for contact to one that is far more served to home runs in the AL. The initial free agent deal is one of the more lopsided in Yankee history in terms of value, but a front office determined to avoid CBT penalties lead to one of the messier contract extensions in that same period. Even perhaps his greatest moment as a Yankee — an incredible, ninth-inning ALCS home run — was undercut, erased by one of the most painful playoff defeats in an era that features many of those.

Happy birthday, man of opposites!

David John LeMahieu
Born: July 13, 1988 (Visalia, CA)
Yankees Tenure: 2019-25

Already a solid MLB player by the time the Yankees got ahold of him, DJ had already taken home three Gold Gloves, won the batting crown in 2016 hitting .348, and made two All Star teams. A second round pick by the Cubs out of LSU in 2009, he got a cup of coffee in Chicago just two seasons later, before being dealt to the Rockies that offseason. He quickly established himself as a defensive-first player with a barely-league average bat, except for that ‘16 season.

There’s nothing quite like slugging, and getting that mark up to .495 that season was a huge part of one of DJ’s two five-win seasons. LeMahieu was never a true home run hitter, getting a couple here and there, but his true skill was hard-hit line drives to right field. At Coors, with a huge outfield and defenders playing further back than just about anywhere else in the sport those balls tend to drop in for singles. Still, I think it was a slight stroke of genius for Brian Cashman to notice that those hard-hit line drives to right field, once you move to Yankee Stadium or some of the other, smaller ballparks in the AL East, are either going to bounce off the outfield wall for a double, or just stretch over for four bags.

With Giancarlo Stanton in the fold joining Aaron Judge the season before, the club had about as much pure power as a team could ask for. What they really needed was a true leadoff hitter, someone to be on base when Judge and Stanton were taking their daddy hacks. Inked for two years and $24 million (lol), DJ settled in as a utility infielder before eventually shoving veteran Brett Gardner out of the top slot in the lineup by May. In a season defined by the Next Man Up attitude, LeMahieu — French for The Machine, famously — appeared in 145 games, set career highs in hits, home runs, doubles, RBI, runs scored, wRC+, and a 5.7 fWAR good enough to finish the year fourth in MVP voting. That he did it for $12 million AAV underscores what an incredible bargain that season was.

The Rockies had made the playoffs twice in DJ’s tenure in Denver, and he had stunk in both runs. In that 2019 campaign though, albeit in only nine games, the now-entrenched second baseman hit .325/.386/.625, a Judgian triple slash, with three home runs including of course the biggest one of the run:

That game should have ended with a Yankee extra-inning miracle, immediately in the annals of the great New York playoff wins. Instead, a small man gave up a home run to a smaller man, and the Yankees were bounced.

Along came COVID-19, and the delayed start to the 2020 season, and perhaps LeMahieu’s apotheosis. I’m normally one to toss all 2020 stats, but I won’t do it when a second baseman slashes .364/.421/.590, a 1.011 OPS! Yes, it was 50 games. No, I don’t care. The Yankees had the best hitter in the American League and it wasn’t Aaron Judge. Somehow LeMahieu finished third in MVP voting, and I’m still grumpy about it. If nothing else, he was the first player to win a batting title in both leagues.

However, that great contract was now up, the Yankees had to retain a guy that good, and Cashman’s fetish for stretching contracts out to lower AAV, which was already getting the team in trouble with one Aaron Hicks, would pop up again. The Yankees and LeMahieu agreed on a six-year deal that should have been a four-year deal, for $90 million. Unfortunately, bat speed almost immediately began to sap, as over the next three seasons LeMahieu would see more fastballs than any other hitter in the game. Pairing this new vulnerability with a spate of injuries hastened his decline, and he managed just 112 games and a -0.2 fWAR in his final two seasons with the Yankees. They eventually designated him for assignment and released him from the roster in July of last year. He has not played in MLB since, most recently managing a summer wood-bat collegiate league team in his native Michigan, the Royal Oak Leprechauns.

DJ LeMahieu was a shooting star that burned out after two all-time seasons in pinstripes. In an earlier era he would not have had career earnings over $100 million, and he was worth every penny for that ALCS homer alone. Enjoy the day, DJ.

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Dodgers outfielders Josue De Paula and Mike Sirota covered all seven innings in left field for the National League in Sunday’s MLB Futures Game in Philadelphia. De Paula played the first four innings and singled once in his two at-bats.

Sirota struck out in his only at-bat, but much like Eric Gagne’s blown save in the 2003 MLB All-Star Game, Sirota’s on-base streak remains alive and active at 72 straight games once play resumes on Friday.

Player of the day

Great Lakes infielder Logan Wagner, playing second base on Sunday, homered twice and drove in three runs.

Triple-A Oklahoma City

The usual suspects were at it in the Comets’ win over the El Paso Chihuahuas (Padres). Ryan Ward homered and drove in three.

Zach Ehrhard had three hits, including a double, and scored twice. Jack Suwinski had three hits and a double. James Tibbs III had three hits as well.

Oklahoma City’s bullpen game worked to perfection, with nine relievers each pitching a scoreless frame.

Double-A Tulsa

Two runs in the seventh inning sent the Drillers to defeat at the hands of the Springfield Cardinals. Wyatt Crowell had already tossed three scoreless innings of relief to get to the seventh, but in that frame he walked a pair and allowed a two-run double that provided the final margin.

Christian Zazueta struck out three in his three innings and allowed a run. His start was shortened, but it was also his only time pitching on four days rest this season, as he also started the Tuesday series opener.

High-A Great Lakes

In addition to Wagner, Charles Davalan also homered in the Loons win over the Dayton Dragons (Reds).

Robby Porco and Justin Chambers combined for six strikeouts in 3 1/3 innings of scoreless relief.

Class-A Ontario

Jaron Elkins and Easton Shelton each homered in the Tower Buzzers’ win over the Inland Empire (Mariners).

Brady Smith struck out seven in his three-inning start, allowing a run. Luis Carias followed with one run over the final six innings with five strikeouts for the win.

Sunday scores

• Oklahoma City 8, El Paso 0
• Springfield 3, Tulsa 1
• Great Lakes 3, Dayton 1
• Ontario 4, Inland Empire 2

The week ahead

• Oklahoma City at Tacoma (Mariners)
• Tulsa at Frisco (Rangers)
• Great Lakes vs. West Michigan (Tigers)
• Ontario vs. Lake Elsinore (Padres)

All four Dodgers affiliates have the All-Star break off, and don’t start up again until Friday night for shortened, three-game series. From Monday through Thursday this week, minor league games are limited to the Arizona Complex League and the Dominican Summer League.

Bill Caudill celebrates his 70th birthday today.

For those unfamiliar, Caudill was the Blue Jays’ answer to B.J. Ryan back in the 1980s. He broke into the majors with the Cubs, then found his stride as one of baseball’s elite closers in Seattle, before moving to Oakland, where he racked up 36 saves in a season.

After the 1984 season, the Jays traded Dave Collins and Alfredo Griffin for Caudill. Collins spent one not-great season with the A’s. Griffin spent three seasons in Oakland. Surprisingly, the A’s used him as a leadoff hitter. Considering he had a .307 OBP with him, it was a curious choice.

After a decent first season with the Jays (2.99 ERA and 14 saves), the Jays wanted to lock up Caudill for the future.

Caudill became agent Scott Boras’s first client, landing a five-year, $7 million contract. Fortunately for the Jays, only the first three years were guaranteed at $4.5 million, with vesting options for the remaining two. At the time, that was a significant sum. As we know, long-term contracts for closers rarely work out in the team’s favor.

The following season was a disappointment. Caudill ended with a 6.19 ERA and just two saves. He and manager Jimy Williams clashed, as Caudill believed he deserved the closer role, while Williams preferred the powerful arm of Tom Henke. With rookie Mark Eichhorn frequently pitching multiple innings in 89 games, there were few high-leverage spots left for Caudill.

During the off-season, the Jays released him.

He signed with the A’s but struggled with ongoing shoulder issues and soon left baseball. After retiring, he went on to work with Boras.

Caudill finished his career with 106 saves, a 3.68 ERA over 445 games, and 24 starts.

Happy birthday, Bill.

It is also outfielder Joe Cannon’s 73rd birthday.

Cannon played two seasons with the Jays (1979 and 1980) after arriving in a trade from the Astros, along with Mark Lemongello and Pete Hernandez, in exchange for Alan Ashby.

The trade ultimately didn’t work out for the Jays:

• Lemongello pitched in 18 games during 1979, recording a 1-9 record and a 6.29 ERA.

There’s an unusual note on Lemongello’s Wikipedia page:

In 1982, a few years after leaving baseball, Lemongello and his former Wichita teammate, Manuel Seoane, were arrested for kidnapping and robbing Lemongello’s cousins—Mike Lemongello, a former professional bowler, and Peter Lemongello. Lemongello received seven years’ probation after pleading no contest to the charges.

• Hernandez appeared in 11 games across the 1979 and 1982 seasons.

Cannon played in 131 games over his two seasons with the Jays, serving as a fourth outfielder, designated hitter, and pinch-hitter. He posted a .177/.186/.208 batting line.

Ashby went on to play 11 seasons with the Astros, proving to be a solid catcher both defensively and offensively. The Jays had three promising young catchers—Rick Cerone, Ernie Whitt, and Ashby—but Pat Gillick arguably should have secured a better return for Ashby. Not all of Pat’s trades were winners.

Happy birthday, Joe.

It is also Ty France’s 32nd birthday.

Ty is a glove-first first baseman. I’m not a fan of a glove-first first baseman. But he’s having a decent year with the bat for the Padres this year.

He’s had eight seasons in the majors, 910 games, a .263/.334/.406 with 92 home runs.

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The National League All-Stars are favored in Philadelphia tonight, but I’m taking the American League All-Stars at the better price.

This is, obviously, not a normal starter handicap because both teams will cycle through elite arms, but Dylan Cease gives the AL a strong opening counter to Cristopher Sánchez. That's enough for me to take the plus-money price.

Here are my American League vs. National League predictions and MLB picks for July 14.

Who will win the All-Star Game today: American League moneyline

Odds: +127 at Polymarket

I’m taking the American League All-Stars and would play them down to +110.

Calling any All-Star Game a massive edge is a stretch, but +127 is too long in a short-burst pitching format. My analysis could simply be: "Both teams are very good, so why such a large gap?" but I also think there may be an early edge for the AL.

Dylan Cease opens with a 36% whiff rate and AL-best 148 strikeouts, while the American League can still layer Cam Schlittler’s29% strikeout rate and Drew Rasmussen’s steady command behind him.

The National League has bigger names, but Cristopher Sánchez enters with a 9.58 ERA across two July starts, giving the AL at least a chance to strike in the first inning. That ultimately may be all it takes in an environment where runs should be hard to come by.

COVERS INTEL: Christopher Sánchez is dominant overall, but his sinker has allowed a .371 xwOBA and 56.0% hard-hit rate, giving the AL one early pitch to attack.

All-Star Game Over/Under pick: Under 7.5

Odds: +113 at Polymarket

I’m taking the Under because this game’s structure naturally works against the offense. The Under has cashed in 14 of the last 19 All-Star Games for a reason: hitters get one or two plate appearances, rarely see the same pitcher twice, and face arms throwing max effort in short stints.

That does not mean the Over cannot win. It means even if the AL gets the better early swing, sustained rallies are tougher to build in this format. I expect scattered damage, not a full slugfest. Both teams have incredible pitching depth behind the starters, with names like Paul Skenes, Jhoan Duran, Mason Miller, and Cade Smith available.

All-Star Game odds

• Moneyline: AL +120 | NL -142
• Run line: AL +1.5 (-172) | NL -1.5 (+142)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

All-Star Game trend

Three of the previous four Midsummer Classics have been decided by just one or two runs.

How to watch All-Star Game and info

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

If you told me at the beginning of the season that the Nationals would be 48-49 at the All-Star break, I would have been thrilled. Don’t get it twisted, this has been a successful first half given the expectations. There have been so many standout performers in the lineup and even in the rotation. However, it could have been so much better with a real bullpen.

This Nationals bullpen has just been the ultimate vibe killer this season. On the broadcast yesterday, Kevin Frandsen was talking about how the fans needed to get up and support their team in the 8th. This is nothing against Frandsen, but I think the reason Nats fans did not do that is because they knew what was coming. All their fears were right, as the bullpen blew yet another game.

Right now the MLB record for blown saves in a season is 37. However, I do not think that record will last for long. The Nats are already at 27 blown saves, and we are only at the All-Star Break. I have seen a lot of bad bullpen’s over the years, but I’ve never seen one blow games in the 9th inning quite like this bunch.

The Nats have scored the most runs in all of baseball, and they are below .500. That is just a mind blowing indictment on this pitching staff. Really, it is mostly just an indictment on the bullpen. The rotation has not been elite by any means, but it has been solid, especially the past couple months. 

Foster Griffin and Cade Cavalli have been a good 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. Even Zack Littell has a 3.52 ERA since May 1st and Miles Mikolas has a 4.43, which isn’t great, but is not terrible for a 5 starter. At this moment in time, the bullpen is truly the only reason they are not a playoff team.

There are just so many individual games you can look back on and say what if they got that one. If the Nats won that Giants game and even three of the six games they blew against the Phillies and Yankees, the conversation would be so different right now. There are about 10-12 truly awful meltdowns, and even if you could get six of those back, this team would be squarely in the wild card hunt.

Whether it is the deadline or the offseason, it is obvious that Paul Toboni needs to throw resources at the bullpen. Those resources can be money or prospect capital, but this unit needs to be addressed in a real way for 2027. Toboni tried to build a bullpen without using many resources. The idea was that you could build a decent bullpen on the cheap and there are always undervalued talents to find.

Well, Toboni has shown that he is not able to find those hidden gems. He cannot moneyball a bullpen the way the Rays have been able to. With that in mind, he needs to self-evaluate and realize that the bullpen is a spot where he needs to make big moves.

The Nats have blown 27 saves now, and the average is around 13 or 14. Imagine if they had only blown 13 saves. Yes, not every blown save results in a loss, but their record would be so much different. It is truly wild how much of a buzzkill the bullpen has been to what could have been a truly magical season.

You cannot say that this season has been a disappointment or a failure at all. It has been a big success. However, it could have been one of the most magical seasons in Nats history. It is still a good season, just with a massive vibe killer mixed in.

It is like the bullpen’s job is to tell us that we really shouldn’t get that excited. You can never get too happy watching this team until the game is over because truly no game is out of reach. I really think that this bullpen is so bad it gives other teams extra confidence that makes things even worse. No team ever rolls over against the Nats because they know there is always a chance to win the game against this punch. You can be down 8-1 in the 8th inning and still win.

I know that they love playing the matchups, but there has to be a real closer next year. The 9th inning is different, and this season has shown that. Whether it is going out and signing Adrian Morejon or making a big trade, something has to be done to address this.

Insanity is trying the same thing over and over and expecting different results. This is only year one of this regime, so they are not insane by any means. There is not a whole lot they can do to fix this bullpen right now. However, they are going to have to prove to fans that they are willing to try something different next season. The priority for this deadline and offseason should be pitching, pitching and more pitching, especially relief pitching.

Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez haven’t been good this year. Neither have the Seattle Mariners.

The Mariners were favorites in the American League on Opening Day, according to FanGraphs. They enter the All-Star break a game under .500. What happened? Well, the Mariners, as a team, have played worse than they were expected to play. Here’s a timeline of the projected and actual WAR, with 2026 prorated through the end of the season:

Where have they played worse? I broke the roster into four components: Cal and Julio (the stars), the rest of the position player group, the rotation, and the pen. For each group, I added up 2025 WAR, 2026 projected WAR, and 2026 actual WAR (prorated).

We can see most of the underperformance comes from Cal and Julio. They posted 15 WAR last year and were projected by Steamer for 12 WAR this year. They’re on pace for 4 WAR.

Obviously nobody expected Cal to repeat his semi-historic 2025 season. Steamer certainly didn’t. But not only has Cal been worse, he’s not even been good. In fact, he’s not even been average — he’s been really quite bad.

Why? As we recently learned, Cal began the year hurt. Manny Acta said Cal didn’t get enough reps with Team USA at the World Baseball Classic, tried to make up for it afterwards, over exerted, and strained his oblique. Cal tried to ‘tough guy’ his way through the first part of the season, before landing on the injured list after a long 0-for. He’s either still hurt or hasn’t found his timing, because he’s not been great since joining the team again in mid-June. He posted a 62 wRC+ before the injury; he has an 88 wRC+ since.

It’s not fair to lump Julio in the same tier of disappointment as Cal, though I wouldn’t call his season a success, either. Julio got off to his best start ever at the plate, but he slumped in the outfield. He turned it around defensively in June, but then his bat slumped. He started to get hot at the plate at the end of the month, finally putting everything together, but Nolan Schanuel drilled him in the back of the head while running the bases. Julio is on the injured list with a concussion.

This missing production is a big deal. Cal and Julio entered the year as the top batter duo in the majors, each projected in the top five. I found the two best projected batters by Steamer for each team, and compared to actual WAR (prorated). No team has gotten less relative to expectations from their top two hitters than the Mariners.

The teams just below on the list — the Blue Jays, Padres, Mets, and Phillies — have fared much worse on offense overall. The Mariners have an even 100 wRC+ because the rest of their lineup, collectively, has been fine. They’ve been about as good as they were last year, when Cal and Julio led them to a second place finish by wRC+ (and a ninth place finish by WAR).

There’s been a few good performances, from Randy Arozarena, Dominic Canzone, and Cole Young. There’s been a few bad performances, from Josh Naylor, Victor Robles, and Leo Rivas. J.P. Crawford has been hot and cold and can’t play defense. They’ve largely assembled themselves into something close to 2025. This isn’t Dodgers-level depth, of course, but it’s a reasonably competitive group, so long as they don’t have to go it alone.

The issue was this part of the roster was meant to take a step forward this year. The addition of Brendan Donovan is what pushed the Mariners into the “AL favorites” tier of the projections this spring. He simply hasn’t been on the field. Rob Refsnyder was meant to help with the roster’s general lopsidedness. He is now the worst player ever acquired by Jerry Dipoto by WAR. Both players are on the IL.

Still, it’s pretty clear what’s changed from last year to this year.

There’s been plenty said about what’s gone wrong in the first half of the season, and what needs to change in the second. Sometimes the truth is simple.

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The best Monday on the sports calendar is finally here! The Home Run Derby brings out the kid in all of us, and hopefully it will bring out the beast in Jordan Walker tonight.

My Home Run Derby predictions have extracted the best value possible in the Home Run Derby odds, including some intriguing props.

Let's dive into my top MLB picks for July 13.

Best MLB Home Run Derby predictions

Pick	Odds
Jordan Walker to win	+733
Willson Contreras to win	+1900
Jac Caglianone to reach the final round	+285
⚾ Longest Home Run: 500+ feet	+122

Our top MLB Home Run Derby picks for Monday, July 13

Jordan Walker to win

+733 at Polymarket

I kind of have a type when it comes to the Home Run Derby. DO NOT SHAME ME! I like the big boys.

I want guys who have raw, natural power, and Jordan Walker has all of that and more. The younger stars are always a draw for me because I want to see them leave their mark and make a bigger name for themselves.

The St. Louis Cardinals' 6-foot-6, 250-pound outfielder, who is sitting on a career-high 22 homers and counting, is easily one of my favorite looks in this event. 

Willson Contreras to win

+1900 at Polymarket

I always sprinkle on a long shot winner that has a ton of upside, which Willson Contreras definitely has.

Typically, the long shot is a smaller guy, your Jazz Chisholm or Mookie Betts types. Guys who can absolutely crush home runs, but honestly probably aren't built for the Home Run Derby.

Personally, I think Ben Rice should be dead-last on the odds board, but unfortunately, I don't make the odds.

I was a little too eager to jump on Contreras and missed out on a great number. Near 20-to-1 odds is insane. I ended up grabbing 13-to-1 thinking I was being slick.

Contreras has all the raw power in the world to make a deep run, and is on pace to reach his career-high in dingers with 20 already at the unofficial halfway point of the season. So why take the chalk when there is a big body with legitimate power sitting at the bottom of the odds board?

Our best 2026 MLB Home Run Derby props

Jac Caglianone to reach the final round

+285 at Polymarket

I am already on Jac Caglianone to have the furthest hit home run in this event. All this guy does is generate hard-hit balls, and he is an absolute monster.

A part of me is concerned with some of these younger guys participating in this event. Will Walker or Caglianone be too eager to try and kill the ball instead of staying relaxed and taking their normal hacks?

However, there is no way I'm taking Kyle Schwarber, Junior Caminero, or Bryce Harper just because they have been here before. I think there is a ton of value in the Kansas City Royals' future star, as long as he stays calm and relaxed, and lets his natural power take over.

Longest home run: 500+ feet 

+122 at Polymarket

Who doesn't want to see a 500-foot nuke missile? Losers, that's who.

Last season in Atlanta, we watched Pirates slugger Oneil Cruz launch a 513-foot home run. Back in 2017 in Miami, Aaron Judge matched that mark with a 513-footer of his own.

If you take out the 2021 Derby in Colorado, it's a much rarer feat. But with temperatures expected to be in the mid 80s tonight in Philadelphia, the conditions are there. This year's field is loaded with guys who generate ridiculous power and have the ability to send one 500+ feet, even without seeing 100 mph fastballs.

This is supposed to be fun. Enjoy it, root for moonshots, and let yourself feel like you're 10 years old again.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Congratulations to Yolfran Castillo, who has been named the #5 prospect in the 2026 LSB Midseason Community Prospect Rankings, receiving less than half of the vote.

Our list so far:

1 — Sebastian Walcott

2 — Caden Scarborough

3 — Malcolm Moore

4 — A.J. Russell

5 — Yolfran Castillo

Moving on…

Because there has been a history of vote-spamming shenanigans in the rankings, I used Google Forms for the last several of community rankings, and it worked out well, so we will use it again. You will need to include your LSB user name when you vote. If you don’t have an LSB user name, you need to use some sort of identifier. While this won’t eliminate the possibility of vote spamming, it will make it harder.

So who is the #6 prospect in the Rangers system right now?

Cast your vote below…