Category: MLB

The Dodgers finally enjoy some good scheduling on the East Coast. Last season Dodger fans will remember that the team was in New York on back-to-back weekends but flying home for a series in between. This time, the All-Star Game was in Philly, with the team then starting a nine-game stretch of New York, Philly, and New York.

The Dodgers are starting their second half in the Bronx, where they will start with a three-game set against the Yankees. The team has not been back to Yankee Stadium since they closed out their 2024 World Series there, winning Game 5 to take the championship.

The Bronx Bombers started out hot to start the season, but now find themselves second in their division, sitting at 54-42, 3.0 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays.

The two teams went into the All-Star break in different fashions. The Dodgers lost five of their final seven games, and the Yankees pulled themselves out of a June swoon to win their final four games.

Roki Sasaki finds himself kicking off the second half on the mound, looking to get back to his form at the beginning of the season. Sasaki has been worse on the road this season, with his strikeout rate falling and his walk rate increasing along with his ERA. The Yankees have a very lefty heavy lineup that will not include Aaron Judge.

The Yankees will counter with Garrit Cole who is 3-4 on the season with a 4.04 ERA. Cole was also involved in the last games these two teams played in Yankee Stadium, so he will be looking to prove something – revenge against the Dodgers, showing he’s better than this season has shown thus far. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman have seen him relatively well, but not so much for the rest of the team.

Old friend Cody Bellinger was the starting centerfielder for the AL squad, as was first baseman Ben Rice who was hot to end the first half.

The biggest thing to watch for perhaps is the air quality at the time of these games. Wildfire smoke from Canada has worked its way into the U.S. and is causing issues all through the Midwest and East Coast. It could affect how long pitchers are able to last on the mound in addition to other issues with players.

Friday game info

• Teams: Dodgers at Yankees
• Ballpark: Yankee Stadium, New York
• Start time: 4:05 p.m. PT
• TV: SportsNet LA, MLB Network
• Radio: AM 570 (English), KTNQ 1020 AM (Spanish)

I sincerely believe the Braves seriously want to win. I think they know how to win. I think they have the institutional knowledge as a franchise to be successful at winning division titles. I know they don’t have a lackadaisical or careless approach toward putting together a successful team and winning games. You won’t see them disinterested in the results as long as people keep buying tickets. You know they won’t think “what are they going to do, drive to Baltimore for baseball? And even if they do, who cares?” Even in the mini-rebuild of the mid-2010s (and to the frustration of some observers), the Braves were interested in presenting some form of a non-comatose ballclub.

However, since the red-hot-for-two-months Braves reached 45-21 in early June, the Braves have preferred to kick it into low gear in regards to the bullpen. It’s perplexing to see them make some of the near-end-of-game decisions in the last month. Specifically:

• June 9, 2026 – Allowing Carlos Carrasco to pitch the sixth and some of the seventh in a one-run game. Carrasco and company allowed the White Sox to tie the game. The Braves were avoiding pitching the winning side of the bullpen options such as Robert Suarez and Raisel Iglesias. They used both anyway in a loss.
• June 23, 2026 – Allowing Carlos Carrasco to pitch the sixth and some of the seventh in a one-run game. Carrasco allowed the Padres to tie the game. The Braves were avoiding pitching the winning side of the bullpen options such as Robert Suarez and Raisel Iglesias. They used Iglesias anyway in a loss.
• July 5, 2026 – Allowing Carlos Carrasco to pitch the eighth and the ninth in a two-run game. The Mets’ lead swelled to seven, before the Braves scored six in the bottom of the ninth.
• July 10, 2026– Allowing Danny Young to pitch the eighth in a tie game, with higher-leverage options available (or at least rested). The Cardinals took the lead with a home run off Young, and rode BABIP luck to the win.

It’s a departure from April 29, when a ninth-inning Matt Olson home run pulled a win away from the Detroit Tigers. When Walt Weiss talked after the game, he dropped this nugget to the media.

Down one, you gotta be careful doing this too often, especially down one… been chasing those games with our bullpen, you know trying to keep it there. Because I feel like our offense is in a really good place. And I feel like if we keep it to one, we got a really good chance of winning those games late.

And the reaction from Braves Country was one of appreciation and relief. It was a fan base that had tired of the inning-and-lead tiered and structured approach of years past. But that’s a much different approach than the last five weeks or so. Victories stopped being appreciated in the standings and were more defined by the absence of the higher-leverage options. But let’s examine that walkoff win a little closer. Was it that much different than the last five weeks? Do you know who pitched the ninth inning while down one run on April 29th? Raisel Iglesias? Robert Suarez? No, Reynaldo Lopez. And not somewhat/fully recovered Lopez from July. It was the Lopez that was recently removed from the rotation, and hadn’t pitched in eight days. That night, Reynaldo’s four-seam topped out at 93 mph. Seven days ago, he hit 97 mph with it.

Regardless, they pushed a recently called-up JR Ritchie to the sixth. Then Dylan Lee threw 28 pitches and picked up four strikeouts. Then they handed to the seventh or eighth guy in the bullpen for two innings. So, it was a mix of asking the higher-leverage option to push for five outs, and whatever you would consider Reynaldo Lopez at that point (last or next-to-last guy?) for two innings. They were giving themselves a chance, but still they were relying (or maybe forced to rely) on a poor option.

The Braves’ bullpen overall has been excellent this season. They’re second in ERA, first in FIP, and fourth in xFIP. They’re first in fWAR too, even though I’m not crazy about WAR for relievers for reasons I will probably lay out later this season. But very good overall, clearly. But are they, though? When you remove Dylan Lee, Didier Fuentes, Raisel Iglesias, and Robert Suarez, the remainder has collected 0.0 WAR. Now, some of that total has been pushed down by players that are no longer on the roster: Aaron Bummer, Carlos Carrasco, Osvaldo Bido and Joel Payamps. But still the remainder is merely okayish and very league-replacement-like.

Here are the Braves’ run differential totals for this season. These are 1-run, 2-run, etc. games thrown into buckets. 55 of the Braves 95 games have been decided by 3 runs or less. So if these numbers hold, they will play 39 more over the next ten weeks. When you factor in Average Leverage Index for relievers, the Braves are solidly middle of the pack at 18th. Average Leverage Index for relievers is again square in the middle at 15th. So on paper, these are pretty normal bullpen usage numbers. However, the Braves are delivering a first place performance in reliever WPA, and doing it with 4 pitchers doing the heavy lifting. So it’s like many workplaces, it’s average workload with the vast majority of work throughput being produced by four people.

But does 35-45 games in conflict sound about right going forward? And will each of those 35-45 games require one to four higher-leverage options to pitch? If the answer to those questions is both yes, then you have more questions to answer. How do you make up the gap in the sixth through ninth innings with four good options? Do you add another starting pitcher that you are willing to allow to pitch 3 times through the order? Do you add more relievers? Stands to the side for Ivan and Omar to scream RELIEVEEEEEEEEERRRRRRRSSSS!!! In any case, the Braves will likely need to add something. They just don’t have the requisite personnel to service four plus innings a night. And Dylan Dodd can only chip in so much.

Oh well, moar pitching plz. Or home runs, lots of home runs.

Your 2026 New York Mets: 暑い真夏の空 アスファルト溶かし The hot midsummer sky melts the asphalt [Song: Daydream by Judy and Mary]

“I’m not gonna lie: Towards the end, it got a little thick. It felt like breathing in some metal. … A little spoonful of adversity never hurt anybody.” -Christian Scott [New York Post]

しゃがみこんだあたしは

“We’re well aware we’re staring down one of the hardest schedules in baseball for the second half. We should relish that, like that and rise up and meet that. I don’t think there’s another attitude to take.” -Andy Green [New York Post]

白く 消えていく

“I didn’t think it was bad till the last couple innings. My eyes were burning and itching a little bit. [Carson] Benge said it felt like you were sitting by a campfire. … It was fun … but it didn’t feel great playing ball with it.” -Brett Baty [New York Post]

しんきろうの 真ん中で

いつか汗ばむ体を包んで

暑い風が 1人きりの あたしをおいてく

清らかなままで いられない都会に

夢のように さけびは届かないままで

しんきろうの 真ん中で

いつか汗ばむ体を包んで

暑い風が 1人きりの あたしをおいてく

背中の汗 かわきはじめて

暗闇に 灯がともる頃は

暑い風が 1人きりの あたしをおいてく

“Ya Gotta Believe” -Tug McGraw [Wikipedia]

One of my favorite times of the year is the NCAA Baseball Tournament. The Road to Omaha and the Greatest Show on Dirt is one of the best fan experiences in baseball. If you have never been, add it to your bucket list. Go when your school makes it, or better yet, adopt a few mid-majors each year and bandwagon your way into some of the best memories the sport has to offer. I’m not a paid spokesperson for the College World Series, though, so let’s move on.

The Yankees selected six players in the 2026 MLB Draft who appeared in this year’s NCAA Tournament. As a fun fact to drop on your friends later, that’s actually two more tournament participants than high school players the Yankees drafted. So, how did those six future Yankees perform when the lights were brightest?

We’ll go alphabetically, which means we start with the national champion. Brendan Brock logged 29 starts behind the dish and 37 starts in the outfield or at designated hitter for Oklahoma over the season. He was selected 99th overall after helping guide the Sooners to the College World Series title. Before hearing his name called, Brock tore through the NCAA Tournament, batting .457 with a .576 on-base percentage, 21 hits, 10 walks, 13 RBIs, and three home runs.

Once the Sooners reached Omaha, he continued to produce, hitting .400 with eight hits and a .520 on-base percentage. Brock’s biggest postseason moment came in the Atlanta Regional when he went 3-for-5 with two home runs, four RBIs, and three runs scored against Georgia Tech. He also delivered a key home run against Georgia in the College World Series semifinals.

Next up is Blake Cyr, a shortstop/outfielder from Florida whom the Yankees selected in the 18th round with the 548th overall pick. A middle-of-the-order bat, Cyr hit .286 during regional play with four hits, one home run, and three RBIs. His signature moment came in Florida’s tournament opener when he launched a game-tying three-run homer in the bottom of the seventh inning. The Gators hosted a regional and advanced to the regional championship game before falling one win short of the Super Regionals.

Diego Castellanos spent the spring wearing the #5 jersey and patrolling the outfield for Saint Mary’s before becoming the Yankees’ 14th-round selection. Castellanos caught fire in the Los Angeles Regional, batting .417 (5-for-12) with two doubles and two RBIs. He recorded back-to-back multi-hit games, including a perfect 3-for-3 performance against the host school UCLA. Saint Mary’s was eliminated before reaching the regional final.

The Yankees’ first selection of the draft, left-hander Hunter Dietz out of Arkansas, made one postseason start. Although he was charged with the loss, Dietz struck out a career-high 14 Kansas hitters in the Lawrence Regional. It was a fitting finish to a breakout season in which Arkansas’ Friday-night ace went 7-4 with a 3.57 ERA and 131 strikeouts over 85.2 innings. The Razorbacks failed to advance to the Super Regional round falling a second time to the hosting Jayhawks.

Bear Harrison, selected in the fifth round, was the starting catcher for Texas A&M. During NCAA Tournament play, Harrison slashed .250/.444/.500 with three hits, four walks, and a home run. His postseason was really an extension of the consistency he displayed throughout the year. Harrison set a Texas A&M program record after being hit by a pitch 23 times and finished the season with a 32-game on-base streak both of which he added to in the postseason. The Aggies were eliminated during regional play.

That brings us to Dean Toigo, the Yankees’ final selection of the draft. Before being chosen 608th overall, Toigo roamed the outfield in the desert for Arizona State. He turned in a solid postseason, highlighted by a multi-hit performance in the Sun Devils’ elimination-game victory over South Dakota State in the Lincoln Regional. Arizona State earned an at-large bid as the No. 3 seed but saw its season come to an end before advancing beyond the opening weekend.

A national champion, a handful of standout performances, and several players who already proved they can perform on college baseball’s biggest stages. College success guarantees nothing in professional baseball, but the Yankees will certainly hope a few of these postseason performers eventually help create October memories in the Bronx.

The Braves return to action tonight at Truist Park to begin a three-game set against the Texas Rangers. We’re hoping they’re well-rested and ready to come out of the All-Star break hot. Or at least playing better than .500 ball, like how they began July.

We can afford to be optimistic knowing the players that are set to return and make an impact in the second half. It’ll be like making a trade…

Among those are Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ha-Seong Kim, who began their rehab assignment on Monday with the FCL Braves. They will now continue their rehab in Triple-A with the Gwinnett Stripers (alternatively, acronyms abound: RAJ and HSK join AJSS in AAA).

In three games with the FCL Braves, Acuña Jr. was 1-for-7 with two walks, but that one hit was a grand slam yesterday.

In his three games, Ha-Seong Kim was 2-for-6 with a homer and three walks.

The Stripers begin a series against the Mud Hens in Toledo tonight before returning home on Tuesday, July 21. We’ll likely hear more from Walt Weiss about their estimated timeline to return to the big club before tonight’s game.

The Pittsburgh Pirates were making moves on the last day of the All-Star Break, acquiring former top prospect Robert Hassell III from the Washington Nationals on Thursday for cash or a player to be named later.

The 24-year-old Hassell was a first round draft choice of the San Diego Padres in 2020 and was regarded as a top 40 prospect in 2022 and 2023 before failing to progress any further.

Hassell, an outfielder, was playing in Triple-A this season and was hitting an underwhelming .215 with just 2 homers and 15 RBIs. He did play 70 games with the Nationals varsity last season, finishing the year hitting .223 with 3 homers and 18 RBIs on 197 at-bats.

Obviously, the Bucs are taking a flyer on some unfulfilled potential with Hassell, and they have a need for some depth in the outfield, but the Nationals were do desperate to get rid of him that they traded him to the Bucs for future considerations.

But who knows? Should he turn it around, he would be far from the first player to go to new team and find success, so for the light price that it cost the Buccos, it’s worth the chance.

Welcome to the club, Robert!

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The Minnesota Twins and Chicago Cubs begin a three-game set tonight, with Chicago's offense looking to take advantage of Bailey Ober's road struggles. 

My Twins vs Cubs predictions and MLB picks are eyeing the hosts to take the series opener behind a solid outing from Colin Rea. 

Who will win Twins vs Cubs today: Cubs moneyline (-133)

The Chicago Cubs will face Minnesota Twins right-hander Bailey Ober in the series opener. He's made just one start since late May, but Ober's numbers on the road are alarming.

Away from Target Field, the 31-year-old owns a 7.11 FIP. That's compared to a 3.76 mark at home. 

As for Colin Rea, he's posted a respectable 4.45 FIP across his last four starts while surrendering just 0.87 HR/9. He's also held opponents to a 36.9% hard-hit rate during that span. 

Neither starter is absolutely lights out right now, but Ober's poor away form presents an opportunity for the Cubbies to score runs.

After all, their wRC+ sits at 120 at home compared to 99 on the road. 

I'll play this pick up to -150. 

COVERS INTEL: Ober has allowed 2.92 HR/9 on the road compared to just 0.96 at Target Field. 

Twins vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Under 10.5 runs (+109)

Tonight's game has an incredibly high total of 10.5 runs, and there’s still a path to the Under.

While Ober may give up his share of damage, the Twins bullpen has been solid lately, owning a 3.49 FIP over the last two weeks while surrendering just 0.64 HR/9.

Chicago's relief corps is the concern, posting a 5.74 FIP during that span while struggling with home runs. However, Rea typically works into at least the fifth, which should limit how early the Cubs need to lean on that group.

Both offenses are in good form, but 10.5 is still too high for me.

I'll play this pick up to -110.

Twins vs Cubs weather

Conditions will be warm at Wrigley Field tonight, with temperatures around 87 degrees at first pitch before falling into the low 80s. Winds sit around 9 mph throughout the game, while rain chances drop from 24% to 11%. Warm air could help carry slightly, but weather shouldn’t create a major edge overall.

Twins vs Cubs odds

• Moneyline: Twins +127 | Cubs -133
• Run line: Twins +1.5 (-150) | Cubs -1.5 (+144)
• Over/Under: Over 10.5 (-122) | Under 10.5 (+113)

Twins vs Cubs trend

The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.30 Units / 34% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Cubs.

How to watch Twins vs Cubs and game info

Twins vs Cubs latest injuries

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When the Nats traded for Harry Ford this offseason, the expectation was that he would be in the big leagues before July 17th. However, due to Keibert Ruiz’s resurgence and his own uneven performances, he has had to wait. With Drew Millas going down though, Ford will be getting the call.

It has been an interesting 2026 to say the least for the 23 year old catcher. After the Nats acquired him for Jose A. Ferrer, many including myself thought he would be the starting catcher either at Opening Day or quickly after that. Ford was coming off a great season in AAA where he hit .283 with an .868 OPS. He made his big league debut and even made the playoff roster last year.

However, with Cal Raleigh entrenched in the catcher spot long term, Ford became trade bait. It seemed like a great pickup when the Nats acquired Ford. The results this year have not been amazing, though they are trending in the right direction. For the season, Ford is hitting .223 with a .705 OPS that is mainly driven by his ability to draw walks. 

Those numbers don’t exactly scream big league call up, but Ford has been getting better every month. He was 0 for 7 in March and then posted a dreadful .531 OPS in April. However, as the weather has warmed up in Rochester, so has Ford. He had a .716 OPS in May, an .841 in June and a 1.028 so far in July. Since May 1st, Ford has an .817 OPS.

As you can see from this graph, Ford’s super power is his swing decisions. He rarely ever leaves the zone, which provides pitchers with real challenges, especially if they struggle with command. The biggest thing Ford will have to prove in the big leagues is that he can punish pitchers for attacking him in the zone.

This season in AAA, he has not done a great job of that. His exit velocities are down from last year, and so are the power numbers. Ford hit 16 homers in 97 games last year, but only has 4 in 58 this year. Right now his offensive profile is extremely reliant on walks. If he can’t punish mistakes, those walks will be harder to come by in MLB.

It is worth noting that Ford has been showing some more juice lately. He already has a homer and three doubles in 8 July games. The most XBH Ford has had in a month is only five, which he was on pace to easily beat this month. Hopefully that trend can continue as he gets promoted.

I would expect Ford to be matched up a good amount against left handed pitching. On the season, Ford has an .854 OPS against lefties and a .664 mark against righties. This could be a bit of a wonky fit, as Keibert Ruiz has also been better against left handed pitching.  I trust Blake Butera to put these guys in the best positions to succeed. He has been doing that all season with his lineups, and that is unlikely to stop now. 

On the defensive side of the ball, Ford has the tools to be a solid defender, but has been up and down in his career. With Bobby Wilson, who helped fix Keibert Ruiz’s defense, he will have a great catching coach to lean on.

Nats fans should expect a very patient hitter who works good at bats and can run into an occasional homer. Ford does have some strikeouts issues, but they are not out of control. Ideally, Ford will take this chance and run with it, displacing Drew Millas as the Nats second catcher.

Despite an uneven season, the 23 year old still has plenty of upside. He does not project to be a superstar, but Ford could be a starting catcher who gets on base a ton and plays solid defense. I am very curious to get a look at Ford in the big leagues. It has been frustrating to watch Jose A. Ferrer flourish in Seattle while Ford toils away in AAA. Now, we will get to see the impact of that trade at the big league level.

Welcome to the second half. The Red Sox are 46-48 after a nine-game winning streak to close out the first part of the season. Now the team races towards the trade deadline with eyes on being buyers rather than sellers.

Willson Contreras doesn’t’ want to leave.

So it’ll be up to him, Sonny Gray, Aroldis Chapman and the rest of the team to really force Craig Breslow’s hand. This was, after all, the original plan entering the season. To compete. To win. To reach October.

After running wild in April and May, the Rays fell back to earth with a .500 June – including a 3-game sweep of the Sox – but are 7-5 so far in July.

Griffin Jax started one of those games in June and went 4.0 innings while allowing 3 runs (2 earned). That was his season high at the time but he’s since made nine starts of at least 5.0 innings including one 6.0 inning appearance. He’s not going deep in terms of pitch counts. just innings. Over 6.0 he just 71 pitches. In recent 5.0 inning starts he’s used as many at 88 but as few as 69. They’re clearly working him along in s specific way. Jake Bennett is coming off an excellent start against the Chicago White Sox. 7.0 shutout innings with 4 strikeouts and 1 walk? Can’t ask for more.

Game two doesn’t have announced starters yet, which leans towards the Sox pushing Payton Tolle into the next series to give him some extra rest. Eduardo Rivera and Brayan Bello are both available though…that just worked well against the Mets. Not that the Rays up the LOLMets.

The Ian Seymour experiment hasn’t gone as well as Jax. He was a pure reliever, then did some opening, and now has made three straight starts. The last was against the Seattle Mariners where he allowed 6 wins in 3.1 innings. His start against Boston was 4.0 innings and he allowed a single run: a homer by Marcelo Mayer. Patrick Sandoval is making his second start for the Red Sox. His first in two years was solid enough: 4.1 innings, 1 run, 5 Ks. With Ranger Suarez on the IL a few more days at least, Sandoval arrived at the right time.

Shane McClanahan is also back from a long absence for 2026. But he’s 17 starts into his return. The Sox missed him the last time. He held the Yankees scoreless over 6.1 last time out. And didn’t allow a run to KC the previous start. Sonny Gray is coming off a restful All-Star Break as he didn’t get selected for the game itself. He’s taking all comers ans shutting down their offenses. He’s been every bit the number two Breslow promised.

Junior Caminero was hit in the hand during the All-Star Game and could be out? He’s having a terrific year: 28 homers so far.

Chandler Simpson has 22 steals and has been caught 11 times, which leads the league.

Jonathan Aranda is posting a .394 OBP.

Yandy Diaz leads baseball with 11 hits.

Probable Pitching Matchups

Friday, July 17: Griffin Jax (2.61 ERA / 4.42 FIP) vs. Jake Bennett (2.64 ERA /3.02 FIP)

Friday, July 17: TBD (—ERA / — FIP) vs. TBD (— ERA /— FIP)

Saturday, July 18: Ian Seymour (4.59 ERA / 4.09 FIP) vs. Patrick Sandoval (2.08 ERA / 1.49 FIP)

Sunday, July 19: Shane McClanahan (2.83 ERA / 3.15 FIP) vs. Sonny Gray (2.54 ERA / 3.53 FIP)

When/Where to Watch

Friday, July 17: 1:35 PM ET on NESN

Friday, July 17: 7:10 PM ET on NESN

Saturday, July 18: 4:10 PM ET on NESN

Sunday, July 19: 1:35 PM ET on NESN

Listen, I know many of you reading this read the title and think you already know the answer.

“No!” is the most likely refrain were I to post somewhere else, looking to spark discussion or creating some kind of snap poll that looked for a majority vote. Based on his performance this year where it matters, I’m not sure that I would blame you. A 6.82 ERA thanks to his allowing 26 runs in 33 innings are not numbers one wants to see from one of it’s supposed high leverage relievers.

Yet I am here to tell you, dear reader…..Jose Alvarado has indeed stunk up the ballpark in 2026. He’s allowing a ton of runs, walking too many hitters and falling behind in too many counts as to make at bats uncompetitive for him before they’ve really even begun. There really is no way to dance around these facts. It leads to the question of, can he and his season be salvaged to let him be something important down the line in the season?

There was a question that was asked of Justin Verlander this All-Star weekend where his answer really interested me.

What Verlander is saying is something we should be thinking more about as the game moves forward. Stuff models are very useful in the modern game as they are the ways pitchers learn new pitches, refine what they have already, basically all the ways they can get better at their craft. His point about hitters being able to tell a pitcher information about his pitches is getting a little lose along the way makes sense and is further broadening the divide between baseball purists and “the nerds”.

Alvarado is a great case here as his under the hood stuff, according to Baseball Savant, his season hasn’t been too bad. Take a quick peek at it and there is a lot of red going on, a good thing for a pitcher to have as it means a lot of what we are looking for in pitcher effectiveness is in the top percentiles.

He’s doing a lot of things the team wants him to do well, he’s just not seeing the results in the counting stats we see on a scoreboard. Looking at if from a subjective point of view, it’s something that everyone can see plain as day, that he is giving up a ton of runs in a few innings. Whatever trust there was to bring him into high leverage situations seems to be evaporating quickly. Which begs the question: why does the team continue to put him into high leverage situations? Is his stuff that good that he continues to warrant looks in those situations?

It really does depend on what you think of how people evaluate “stuff”. Fangraphs takes Stuff+ for each pitcher and ranks them for each pitch they throw. If we narrow the leaderboards to 20 innings pitched to make sure that Alvarado is included, he has some of the best pitches in the game:

• sinker: 120 Stuff+ (t-15th among 339 pitchers that have thrown the pitch)
• curveball: 147 Stuff+ (2nd among 208 pitchers that have thrown the pitch)
• cutter: 115 Stuff+ (6th among 203 pitchers that have thrown the pitch)

From this model, Alvarado has some of the best stuff in the majors as a reliever and is a great choice to be brought into a game when it is tight. Yet, how can he be so bad when his stuff is this good? This is where the hitters telling a pitcher if his pitch is any good comes into play. Hitters this season have a .481 slugging percentage against his sinker and a . 444 slugging against the cutter. They are simply hammering the good stuff he is pitching with. This is backed up by his Location+ number, especially for the sinker.

• sinker: 93 Location+ (t-244th among 339 pitchers that have thrown the pitch)
• curveball: 66 Location+ (200th among 208 pitchers that have thrown the pitch)
• cutter: 101 Location+ (108th among 203 pitchers that have thrown the pitch)

The location he has with his pitches is simply horrendous, which leads to hitters being able to hit the ball better, which leads to worse results no matter how good your stuff is according to the pitch models. Until Alvarado can start to locate his stuff better, he’s going to continue getting hit hard. So there’s no hope in his being able to turn it around, right?

Not necessarily.

There is also the argument for Alvarado being unlucky, an argument that can be made by looking at his BABIP. That number right now is an unsightly .440, twenty-three points higher than the next closest pitcher according to Fangraphs. When I first looked at that, it seemed abnormally high, even for a team with the defense the Phillies currently has. If you wanted to know if that was unprecedented or not, using Stathead, I looked up how many pitchers have had a BABIP of .425 or higher and thrown at least thirty innings as a reliever only in a season over the past forty years.

There are four.

And Alvarado has the highest BABIP of them quartet.

It doesn’t help that he has that pretty terrible defense behind him, which has to be taken into account a bit when considering that number, but there is an amount of unlucky-ness that occurring when he is on the mound that is leading to the results he has. You can see it in the quality of contact he has running with.

Listen, Alvarado has not been very good this season. Using “bad” might be a little strong in arguing about it, but I wouldn’t argue too much were you to go that route. However, I’d also ask that we pause before writing him totally off for the season. Alvarado is working with some good stuff as we can see based on different pitch models. That’s a great foundation from which to be a reliever. Where he’s throwing it needs work, an issue that has dogged Alvarado his whole career. If he’s able to reign in the command even a bit the rest of the way, there is the chance that either he starts getting a little luckier with balls put in play, or he’s able to strike hitters out a little more often and not have to involve his defense as much.

Can he be salvaged? Sure.

It’ll all depend on him.

Adam Lind turns 43 today.

Adam Lind was on our prospect list when I first joined BBB. I remember the debate about whether he’d become a “40 home run” player. That didn’t happen, but very few players ever reach that mark.

Lind made his MLB debut as a September call-up in 2006 and performed admirably. Still, he didn’t secure a roster spot out of spring training in 2007. He was recalled in April to cover left field after Reed Johnson was injured, but when Johnson returned, Lind was sent back to the minors—his .230/.274/.383 line didn’t help his case. He received another call-up that September.

In 2008, Lind again began the season in the minors but was called up when the team abruptly parted ways with Frank Thomas. He struggled initially, starting 1-for-19, and an impatient John Gibbons—understandably concerned about his job—sent Lind back to the minors. The Jays then turned to the infamous Mencherson platoon (Brad Wilkerson and Kevin Mench), which, with Lind available, seemed like managerial malpractice.

After Gibbons was fired and Cito Gaston was hired, Gaston’s first and best move was insisting Lind be recalled. Cito made Adam his project, putting him in left field and letting him play regularly. Lind was often seen sitting beside the manager on the bench.

With Cito’s guidance, Lind had his best MLB season in 2009, playing 151 games and hitting .305/.370/.562 with 35 home runs and 114 RBI. Unfortunately, that success created unrealistic expectations, and the following seasons made it clear he wouldn’t become the perennial All-Star fans had hoped for.

2010 was a disappointment; Lind hit just .237/.287/.425, and for the next few years, he seemed like a lost cause.

In 2013, when John Gibbons returned as manager, he recognized—as many fans had—that Lind needed to be platooned. This decision restored Lind’s value to the team.

I’ve always liked Lind. He spoke his mind in interviews, never settling for the usual clichés. When he visited Calgary for a promotional tour, he genuinely enjoyed playing with kids at team events—a quality I truly admire.

Happy birthday, Adam.

Steve Delabar turns 43 today.

The Blue Jays acquired Delabar from the Mariners for Eric Thames at the end of July 2012. Since then, Thames has taken an interesting path—playing three years in Korea, signing with the Brewers, spending 2020 with the Nationals, and appearing briefly in the A’s system in 2022, though he hasn’t returned to the majors.

Delabar’s journey is unique. Drafted by the Angels in 2003, he spent several years in the Padres system before being released in 2008. He played independent ball in 2009 until a fractured elbow derailed his career.

After stepping away from playing, Steve became a high school baseball coach. It was there that he discovered the ‘weighted ball’ program, which briefly became a sensation. The program rejuvenated his arm strength, leading to a minor league deal with the Mariners and, ultimately, his major league debut in 2011. He featured a mid-90s fastball, a slider, and a split-finger fastball.

With the Jays, Delabar emerged as the team’s top setup man and earned an AL All-Star selection in 2014. After that, however, his command faltered, and he bounced between Toronto and Buffalo for a couple of seasons before being released in spring training 2016.

Over four seasons with Toronto, he appeared in 143 games, posted a 3.97 ERA, and struck out 179 batters in 143 innings.

He even recorded an immaculate inning in Oakland on July 30, 2013—a game I attended.

Delabar pitched for the Reds in 2016, spending most of the year in Triple-A but logging eight major league innings. In 2018, he was in the Rangers’ system.

In 2017, Delabar tested positive for PEDs and received an 80-game suspension from MLB.

He retired from pitching in 2018 and returned to coaching.

Happy birthday, Steve. Hope it’s a great one.

Following back-to-back winning seasons, the Royals had designs on contending this year. Much of the season hinged on the development of young hitters Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone, and those two seem to be coming around as key parts of the lineup. Bobby Witt Jr. continues to play at an MVP level, and Michael Wacha was an All-Star. With those developments, you would think the Royals would be right in the mix.

Instead, it has been a disaster of a season. The Royals enter the second half tied for the worst record in baseball. Injuries have taken their toll this summer, but the losing began well before the roster was decimated. The organization’s lack of depth has been exposed, and the team will have a lot of work to do before next spring to get back on track.

Failing students have to show their report cards to their parents, so let’s hand out Royals first-half report cards for fans to see.

Position players

The offense has actually improved from last year, with the team averaging 4.23 runs per game, a 5 percent increase over 2025. The development of young hitters like Caglianone and Jensen has fueled the improvement, although the team still ranks 21st in baseball in runs scored. The team lost the disappointing Jonathan India to injury early on, but the struggles of Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino have had the biggest impact.

Bobby Witt Jr. – A+

Bobby is on track to test whether a player on a last place team can win MVP. He leads the league in fWAR (4.8) and steals (30), ranks fourth in hits (103), third in doubles (22), and leads all of baseball defensively in Outs Above Average (+18). He has increased his walk rate and cut down on his strikeout rate. He is everything you want in a ballplayer, and the Royals are absolutely wasting one of his prime seasons.

Jac Caglianone – B+

A hot June propelled Cags into the Home Run Derby and gave Royals fans some hope for the future. He has cut down on his groundball rate, and his Baseball Savant page is covered in red, particularly in hard-hit rate and exit velocity. He still chases a bit, and his defense is a work in progress (although better than I think some expected), but Jac is starting to look like the 30+ home run threat the Royals saw when they drafted him.

Isaac Collins – B+

Collins was brought in to get on base, and he is second behind only Witt on the team in on-base percentage at .345. He’s been a bit rough defensively in left field, but he has pretty much done what the Royals asked him to do, although he may be a bit stretched too thin in such a prominent role.

Maikel Garcia – B

His numbers are down from last year’s breakout performance, and his baserunning leaves something to be desired at times. But his OPS is still around league average and his defense has been outstanding at third. You’d like his numbers to be better after he signed a long-term deal last offseason, but his numbers have been pretty good this year.

Kyle Isbel – B

Isbel’s offensive numbers are substantially similar to his stats the last two seasons. He is what he is – a terrific defender with little power who should hit ninth in your lineup. He’s out the last month with plantar fasciitis, something that could hamper him the rest of the season.

Carter Jensen – B

Jensen was a bit of a dark horse Rookie of the Year pick before the year, and while he hasn’t lived up to that, he has been solid enough to consider him a fixture for the next few years. The power has been as-advertised, and he shows a patient approach the plate. His immaturity showed earlier this year when he overslept for a game, and his defense has been a mixed bag, but Jensen has put together a solid rookie performance.

Nick Loftin – B

The former first-round pick may be escaping his status as a AAA player by posting strong walk and strikeout rates at the big league level and becoming an offensive asset. His defense at third has been brutal, but perhaps he could improve with more playing time at second.

Michael Massey – B

Massey struggled last year, but has rebounded this year to put up very similar numbers to what he did in 2024. He’s got some pop for a second baseman and plays good defense, but struggles to get on base at a consistent clip. His salary will go up under arbitration next year, so this is a big year for him to prove he is worth keeping.

Lane Thomas – B-

Thomas was a bit of a whipping boy for Royals fans to begin the year, but overall his numbers are…fine? His power is down a bit, but he’s on pace to post his best on-base percentage since 2021, and he’s been most effective against left-handers. He has stayed healthy and has done what was expected of him, the question is whether the Royals needed more from an acquisition.

Tyler Tolbert – B–

What a weird season for Tolbert. He was hitting .200/.275/.200 through 41 plate appearances, then went 12-for-13 with two home runs over three games, and suddenly he has the highest OPS on the team. He’s a speedy bench player, but with this being a lost season, perhaps the Royals should explore whether he’s worth having an expanded role.

Starling Marte – C

Marte seems like a good clubhouse guy, and you could do worse with your bench options, but it is clear the 37-year-old veteran is at the end of the line.

Vinnie Pasquantino – D

Vinnie hit a career-high 32 home runs last year, and with the fences moving in this year, there were thoughts of a huge power season. He has hit two home runs at the K this year. He battled lower back tightness, then missed nearly a month with a hamate bone injury. His saving grace is that his walk rate has spiked to a career-high 11 percent, but otherwise he has been a dud at the plate.

Salvador Perez – F

Salvy has held off Father Time for years, but age seems to have caught up with him this season. Nearly every Baseball Savant metric is trending in the wrong direction. He ranks as the second-worst qualified hitter in baseball with a 58 wRC+, and his -1.5 fWAR is the lowest among all position players. He’s hitting better in July, but he’ll need a strong second half to avoid entering the final year of his contract in 2027 as an albatross.

Pitchers

Pitching was expected to be the strength of this club entering the season, but it has largely been a disaster. The Royals have allowed the fourth-most runs per game in baseball. They have surrendered double-digit runs in ten games, including a 22-1 beatdown at the hands of the White Sox. They entered the season with a lot of supposed pitching depth, but injuries to Carlos Estévez, Kris Bubic, and Cole Ragans have exposed them.

Michael Wacha – A

Wacha may be one of the best free agent signings in Royals history. He has been a workhorse, leading the league in innings pitched, and he gives the Royals a chance to win each time out with 12 Quality Starts. He has some of the worst run support in baseball, which is the only reason why he has a losing record.

Daniel Lynch IV – A-

Lynch has been used in more high-leverage roles this year and has met the challenge, improving his strikeout and walk rates. He has become the most trusted arm in the bullpen.

Stephen Kolek – B

Kolek was a model of consistency until one awful nine-run start against the Cardinals. He throws strikes and gets ground balls and is a perfectly acceptable back-of-the-rotation starter.

John Schreiber – B

Schreiber has been getting outs despite a drop in strikeout rate, but a 4.94 FIP suggests a second-half regression. The Royals should probably be aggressive looking to move him at the deadline for anyone that needs bullpen help.

Kris Bubic – B–

Bubic was looking pretty solid until he gave up five runs in his last start, then hit the Injured List with a shoulder injury. He suffered a setback in his rehab and it is looking increasingly unlikely he will be healthy enough to be moved at the trade deadline.

Noah Cameron – B-

It has been a bit of an up-and-down season for Cameron. The knock on Cameron last year was that he didn’t miss enough bats. He has significantly improved his strikeout numbers this year, and while his 4.89 ERA ain’t great, his 4.03 FIP will play.

Seth Lugo – C+

Lugo hit a wall last year that resulted in a terrible second half and he may be hitting a similar wall this year. He had a 3.69 ERA through his first 15 starts, but has given up 21 runs in 19.1 innings over his last four outings.

Beck Way – C+

Way was called up out of desperation and has been fine, although it has come in low-leverage situations and his FIP is 5.39.

Luinder Avila – C

I like Avila’s stuff and I think he has a bright future, most likely in the bullpen. The Royals were not counting on him being fourth on the team in innings pitched, but here we are. He needs to throw more strikes to have success in the big leagues, but he has shown some glimpses of promise.

Alex Lange – C

Lange was looking like a decent reclamation project until he gave up ten runs over his last four appearances. His walk rate is still awfully high, and he has struggled to strike hitters out the last few weeks.

Mason Black – C-

Before the season, Black was put in a “break glass in case of emergency” box, and it turns out the Royals have needed him 12 times. He has done fine pitching mostly in losses, but he probably shouldn’t be someone the Royals count on in the second half.

Nick Mears – C-

Mears seemed like a shrewd pickup for the bullpen when the Royals got him from Milwaukee, but he struggled with walks and has been out over a month with a shoulder injury.

Steven Cruz – C-

Cruz is a hard thrower who has trouble throwing strikes at times. His cutter has been a lot better than his straight fastball, and I still feel like he could be a really good reliever with some tweaks.

Eli Morgan – C-

The very definition of “replacement level player.”

Lucas Erceg – D

Erceg’s drop in strikeout rate was a red flag last year, and the chickens have come home to roost this season. He has the third-worst strikeout-to-walk rate among relievers. The Royals really needed him to step up after the injury to Estévez but his six blown saves are the most in baseball.

Cole Ragans – D

It has been a frustrating two seasons for Ragans, who was an All-Star in 2024. He made eight starts, showed some flashes of brilliance with high whiff rates, but went down in early May with an elbow injury that required surgery. We probably won’t see him again until mid-2027.

Matt Strahm – F

Strahm was one of the best relievers in baseball last year, and it seemed like a coup when the Royals acquired him last winter. Instead he has been a disaster for the Royals with the second-worst home run rate in baseball. Worse yet, Jonathan Bowlan, who the Royals traded away to acquire Strahm, has been very good for the Phillies.

The 2026 MLB Draft is over. The Texas Rangers have made their selections and started signing players. Deals for their top few picks should be announced in the next few days, with the deadline for signing most drafted players being ten days from now, at 4 p.m. on Monday, July 27, 2026.

Its a far cry from the days of old, when first round picks didn’t sign until weeks — sometimes months — after they were drafted, when there were staring matches, games of chickens, where the deadline was when classes started for the school a drafting player would be attending in the fall if he didn’t sign (assuming that the player in question opted to set foot on campus, rather than not going to school and continuing negotiations into the fall and winter). The assumption is that, barring something extraordinary, a team is going to sign the players it picks in the first ten rounds, with the only real question being which players in rounds 11-20 will be inked to deals before the window for negotiations close.

The Rangers’ 2026 draft class is an unusual one, noted by many of the commentariat as being a boom-or-bust type draft, being top heavy, with their first three picks — who will likely consume the vast majority of the team’s draft bonus pool — being of the high-risk, high-reward variety. After years of swinging for the fences in the draft, the Rangers, in 2019, began orienting more towards lower-risk, safer college picks, with a particular focus on landing batters with a track record of success and good contact skills.

In 2025, the Rangers went in a somewhat different direction in the draft, using their first round pick on prep infielder Gavin Fien — the first high schooler they had picked in the first round since Cole Winn in 2018 — and splitting their first six picks, and the bulk of their draft pool, between three prep infielders* and three injured college pitchers. They didn’t take a college hitter until the seventh round, when they popped Penn State outfielder Paxton Kling — and Kling fit more in the toolsy, athletic category than the polished, advanced skills category.

* Or, if you prefer, two prep infielders and Josh Owens, a prep infielder who also pitches, and who was announced, and being used this season, as a two way player.

This past weekend, the Rangers seemingly came full circle, using their first three selections on high school players for the first time since 2018, including high-velocity lefty pitchers with two of their first three picks. As the industry as a whole has shifted more and more towards college players — nine of the first 11 picks in 2026 were from four year schools — and with a particular focus on college hitters with strong contact ability, the Rangers have put their eggs in a three player basket of guys who were attending high school two months ago.

I don’t know, though, if this is inherently a philosophical shift so much as the team seeing opportunities in regards to players that were on the board when they picked that didn’t necessarily fit their usual mode. The reports heading into draft day had the Rangers’ connected with a number of players prior to the draft, with various mock drafts having the Rangers going both position player and pitcher, both prep and college, with their top pick.

Gio Rojas, taken by the Rangers at #16, was the first high school pitcher selected in the draft, and one of only two high school pitchers taken in the “true” first round, versus the competitive balance pick round after the first round. He’s someone who was seen at one point as likely being off the board before the Rangers picked, a tall, athletic lefty who touches 98 and is expected to be able to hit triple digits when he fills out, a high spin guy who also has a quality slider and feel for a changeup. That profile even a few years ago would have him a lock to go in the top 10.

The flameout rate for high school pitchers has resulted in them dropping on draft boards in recent years, and with good reason. One can go back and look at the failure rate for high school pitchers taken high in the draft and see how often they don’t make it.

But while you are going to adjust where you put high school pitchers on your draft board as a result of that, you aren’t going to remove them from your board altogether. You aren’t going to want to take a high school pitcher first overall, sure…and a high school pitcher hasn’t gone first since Brady Aiken infamously was picked #1 in 2014 by the Houston Astros, who then didn’t sign him due to medical concerns. The only other high school pitchers taken first overall in the history of the draft are Brien Taylor, who went first overall in 1991 to the Yankees and never made the majors, and David Clyde, whose story you are all familiar with.

At some point, though, you’re going to reach a point in the draft where the risk of a high school pitcher is outweighed by the potential value that a particular high school pitcher offers at that point. For the Texas Rangers, this year, that point was the 16th pick the draft, with Gio Rojas.

Rojas, though, wasn’t necessarily the only prep pitcher the Rangers viewed as worthy of snagging with the 16th overall pick. They also were linked with Brody Bumila, a huge lefty out of Massachusetts who throws 100 with great extension, but who has a lot of work to do with his secondaries. The notion of taking Bumila at #16 went out the window when the pre-draft medicals showed that Bumila — who underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow 14 months ago — had a damaged UCL, likely necessitating another surgery.

The injury knocked Bumila out of the first round, and saw him drop all the way to the third round…where the Rangers grabbed him, reportedly with an agreement to pay him first round money. Going way over slot to get a first round talent in the later rounds isn’t unusual. Doing it for a high schooler who may not be ready to step on a mound until the end of 2027 because of a second elbow surgery is, however. Its the organization betting, not just on Bumila’s upside, but on his, and the team’s medical staff, being able to get him back to full strength.

If Bumila does, he’s a steal in the third round. If he doesn’t, well, you’ll be hearing comparisons to Michael Matuella.

In between Rojas and Bumila, the Rangers went prep hitter with Connor Comeau. Like last year’s first rounder, Gavin Fien, Comeau is a high school shortstop with an advanced hit tool who will almost certainly have to move off of shortstop. Unlike Fien, Comeau is one of the youngest players in his draft class, not turning 18 until August, and is a tall, gangly fellow who lacks speed and athleticism, but whose swing, approach and build allows him to be projected as a potential impact hitter as he fills out.

None of the Rangers’ top three picks are cheap signs. Texas isn’t going underslot with them to sign guys who slid to the later rounds. The team said after the draft that Bumila unexpectedly reaching them in the third round scrambled their draft board, as signing him would necessitate them devoting most of their excess bonus pool money to him.

And so in the fourth round, took a junior reliever out of Ole Miss in Hudson Calhoun, who may be below slot, and almost certainly won’t be above slot. In the fifth, they took Michael Anderson out of Penn State, who has already signed for $172,500, significantly below slot. The team’s sixth, seventh, ninth and tenth rounders have all signed for nominal $2500 bonuses, providing savings that will go to Bumila. Their eighth rounder, Georgia shortstop Kolby Branch, is a senior, and a good enough prospect he will likely not sign for $2500, but who will not cost a lot to lock up.

We don’t know yet how much the guys taken in the top 10 rounds will cost to sign, how much pool money will be left over to apply to potential above-$150,000 bonuses for players taken after round 10. There are interesting players the Rangers picked in that range, guys who have the potential to be legitimate prospects as they develop. We will have a fuller picture of the entire draft class in ten days.

But the big bets were in the first three rounds, when the Rangers were opportunistic in grabbing high risk, high reward guys who fell in their laps.