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The Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox have split the first two of their three-game set and will play the series finale at Rate Field on Wednesday, May 27.

My top Twins vs. White Sox predictions and MLB picks are calling for Chicago to win a high-scoring Game 3 tonight. 

Who will win Twins vs White Sox today: White Sox moneyline (-111)

The Chicago White Sox rank fifth in wOBA against left-handed starters this season and second in overall xwOBA while averaging 4.9 runs per game in May.

Chicago righty Davis Martin is also dealing and sports an elite 2.04 ERA and 1.02 WHIP backed by a high-end 2.85 xFIP and 22.4 K-BB%.

As a result, I give the edge to the White Sox on the mound and at the dish.

The Minnesota Twins are countering with lefty Connor Prielipp, and in addition to him coming off his worst start of the season, the rookie’s 4.03 ERA and 4.34 xFIP are run-of-the-mill marks.

I’d back Pale Hose to -125.

COVERS INTEL: My support for the Chicago moneyline is strengthened by starter Davis Martin holding opposing hitters to a miniscule .569 OPS and .261 wOBA while posting a 2.76 xFIP at Rate Field this season.

Twins vs White Sox Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-115)

Both the Twins and White Sox have trended to the Over, and in addition to the highlighted strength of the Chicago lineup against lefties, Minnesota is also rolling.

The Twins have won seven of their past nine games with a solid .325 wOBA and an average of 4.4 runs per game, so I’m anticipating them chipping in enough to send this total Over the number.

Additionally, the Chicago bullpen ranks 25th in xFIP while allowing the second-highest squared-up contact rate in baseball, and the White Sox have tasked their relievers with 21 innings across the past five games.

This Over is in play until -125, and I’d also bet the Over 8.0 at +100.

Twins vs White Sox odds

• Moneyline: Twins +100 | White Sox -120
• Run line: Twins -1.5 (+155) | White Sox +1.5 (-210)
• Over/Under: Over 8.0 (+100) | Under 8.0 (-120)

Twins vs White Sox trend

The Minnesota Twins have hit the Over in 23 of their last 40 games (+7.55 Units / 17% ROI), and the Chicago White Sox have played to the Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.95 Units / 59% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. White Sox.

How to watch Twins vs White Sox and game info

Twins vs White Sox latest injuries

Twins vs White Sox weather

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The Rays surprised the baseball world by signing likely future Hall of Fame pitcher Craig Kimbrel, adding a veteran presence to the bullpen well ahead of any forced move at the trade deadline, but with a similar effect.

Kimbrel joins his 11th professional team in Tampa Bay, having been designated by the Mets after allowing 10 runs in 15 innings, despite league average strikeout and walk rates through the first two months. He’d joined the Mets on a minor league deal that paid $2.5 million once he made the roster out of camp.

For Kimbrel, going from a last place team to one of the American League’s best, with a reputation for getting the most out of pitchers in the last years of their career, must be a boon. For the Rays, they gain a veteran presence with playoff experience. It’s hard to see the addition as anything other than a win-win.

Kimbrel isn’t what he once in his age-38 season, but his fastball is as lively as it’s been in years — getting used 75% of the time — and we can trust the Rays will have some keen ideas on how to get the most of out his secondary pitches. It also helps that Kimbrel has an ability to go multiple innings as well, having faced 10 batters in his final appearance for the Mets.

A gamer, Kimbrel showed up to the Rays bullpen in Baltimore…

And went straight into an ugly game to help his new crew get through the night, picking up two strikeouts — including one on the slider.

Here is the Rays press release on signing Kimbrel:

The Tampa Bay Rays have signed right-handed pitcher Craig Kimbrel to a major league contract. To make room on the active roster, right-handed pitcher Jesse Scholtens was placed on the 15-day injured list with a right wrist strain. The club’s 40-man roster is now at 40 players.

A nine-time All-Star, 2018 World Series champion, and 2011 National League (NL) Rookie of the Year, the 37-year-old Kimbrel went 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA (15.0IP, 10ER), 15 strikeouts, six walks, and a 1.47 WHIP over 14 appearances with the Mets this season before being designated for assignment on May 22 and becoming a free agent on May 25. He signed a minor league contract with a non-roster invitation to spring training on Jan. 29 and was selected to New York-NL’s major league roster on April 11.

Kimbrel has gone 56-50 with a 2.65 ERA (836.2IP, 246ER), 1,297 strikeouts, 352 walks, 440 saves, 30 holds, and a 1.03 WHIP over 865 career appearances spanning 17 seasons with the Mets (2026), Astros (2025), Braves (2025, 2010-14), Orioles (2024), Phillies (2023), Dodgers (2022), White Sox (2021), Cubs (2019-21), Red Sox (2016-18), and Padres (2015).

The right-hander’s nine career All-Star selections are tied with Rich Gossage for second most in major league history by a reliever, trailing only Mariano Rivera’s 13. He was tabbed as the Mariano Rivera American League (AL) Reliever of the Year in 2017 and earned inaugural Trevor Hoffman NL Reliever of the Years honors in 2014. Kimbrel, who made four relief appearances for Team USA at the 2013 World Baseball Classic, was voted the sixth relief pitcher to earn NL Rookie of the Year honors in 2011, becoming the 10th player to unanimously win the award, after setting a major league rookie record with 46 saves. He debuted with the Braves in 2010 and made four consecutive All-Star appearances over his first four full seasons (2011-14), finishing among the top 10 in NL Cy Young Award voting following each of those campaigns.

Kimbrel’s 440 career saves are second most among active pitchers behind Detroit’s Kenley Jansen (483) and fifth most by any pitcher since saves became an official statistic in 1969, also trailing Hall of Famers Rivera (652), Trevor Hoffman (601), and Lee Smith (478). He recorded four consecutive 40-save seasons from 2011-14, tying the majors’ longest streak since 1969 (fourth time), a record he shares with Hoffman (two times: 1998–2001, 2004-07) and Francisco Rodríguez (2005-08). Kimbrel has recorded 12 seasons with 20 saves or more, tied with Billy Wagner for fifth most in the majors since 1969, trailing Rivera (16), Hoffman (15), Jansen (13), and Smith (13).

His 1,297 career strikeouts are tied with Jansen for second most among active relievers behind Boston’s Aroldis Chapman (1,354) and are tied fourth most by a relief pitcher in the modern era (since 1900), also behind Hall of Famers Hoyt Wilhem (1,363) and Gossage (1,340). Kimbrel’s seven seasons with 95 strikeouts or more in relief are tied with Chapman for the most in major league history.

The Huntsville, Ala. native was selected by the Braves in the 2008 (third round) and 2007 (33rd round) First-Year Player Drafts out of Wallace State (Ala.) Community College. At 37 years, 363 days, Kimbrel would become the oldest pitcher to appear for the Rays since Rich Hill (41.129) on July 18, 2021 at Atlanta.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Texas Rangers fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

Prior to Tuesday’s 10-7 win, the Rangers had lost four in a row, getting swept in Anaheim and then no hit by the Houston Astros.

Texas is currently 25-29, 1.5 games back of the Athletics in the putrid A.L. West.

Have you thrown in the towel on 2026?

Cast your vote below…

We’d have to travel in the way back machine to 2017 to find a team that had two 10+ game winning streaks and one 10+ game losing streak. That team was the Dodgers. It won 104 games and reached Game 7 of the World Series. So nothing in the numerology department says that the ship has struck an iceberg and we should all be heading for the life boats. If per se, you were looking for where you stowed your life jacket, I wouldn’t fault you though.

I’m not sure I’ve given up, but I will say after the first inning Tuesday night, I realized I hadn’t yet watched the Survivor Season 50 finale. In fact, I still haven’t finished it, so for the three of you who have watched it, not spoiling it would be appreciated. If I can insert some gallows humor, I noted that the first inning did not, in fact, sink the Cubs. It was 5-0 after that first inning. They lost the other eight innings 7-1. So as bad as the first was, it got worse.

Life jackets. Yeah, depending on what your job is, if you work in the Cubs organization you might want to be looking for your life jacket. You know, or updating your resume. This kind of belly flop, with where the organization is right now today, it isn’t going to wholesale flip the front office. Most of those people have job security. But if this goes off the rails this badly, there are going to have to be some who pay the price. There’s a lot of season to go, but this looks like a fire the hitting coach(es) type of year. Perhaps take a look at your strength and conditioning or your training staff.

The injuries have ravaged the pitching staff and the offense continues to be inept. The offense is the really vexing part. They were really good. Until a few weeks ago. Then it just all collapsed. Increasingly since 2017, the Cubs have too many hitters with similar approaches. They go into long slumps and they tend to happen in concert with one another. This has been a reoccurring problem for years. I believe that the team has put so much emphasis on defense and good baserunning that they end up lacking enough really good hitters.

I don’t pretend to entirely understand all of the stats I see on Fangraphs. But I certainly understand relativity. The Cubs lead all teams on Fangraphs in terms of defensive WAR. It is indicated at 12.0 with the Dodgers second at 11.4. Third place (Red Sox) is 11.2 but then fourth drops all of the way down to 4.7. There are three teams WAY beyond all of the others defensively. Never get me wrong, that is a good thing. I love the defense that this Cub team plays.

BsR is the measure of baserunning on Fangraphs. The Cubs are at 0.1 which isn’t great. It’s 17th of 30 teams. Decent, but nothing amazing. If Nico Hoerner, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Matt Shaw got on base more, I suspect the Cubs would bump up some notches. The Cubs do rank 5th in the Fangraphs Offensive metric. That’s impressive. But the difference between 1st and 5th is 45.1 to 20.5. I may not understand everything that goes into the metric, but I do get relativity. The Dodgers by this measure are more than twice as good as the Cubs. That’s insane.

What does that difference look like in a slash line? As a team, the Dodgers have a .021/.010/.040 edge over the Cubs. Almost half a run per game. That’ll add up over time. So while offense remains the secondary strength of this team, this team lags a good bit behind the Dodgers, the standard bearer for offense in the modern game. Without an endless line of guys throwing in the upper 90’s and above, offense is the next best way to win ball games. Having both is the gold standard.

Cub pitchers are 21st in strikeouts per nine innings. They are a bit shy of two strikeouts per game behind the Brewers. They are 5th in walks per nine innings. They are 29th in homers per nine innings. Too many balls in play. Too many balls out of the park. 30th in homers per fly ball. 24th in FIP and these numbers are before the debacle that was game 55.

Not good enough.

Three Positives:

• Alex Bregman had two hits, one a double, and the only run scored.
• Carson Kelly had a pair of singles
• Pete Crow-Armstrong had a single and was hit by a pitch.

For what it’s worth, if you tuned out on the game like I did, Fangraphs had the FIP at 1.07 and the xFIP at 2.46 for Hoby Milner’s outing. For that matters, they had xFIP at 3.43 for Jordan Wicks. I know I saw one of those scorecard features that show up on social media that the stuff was decent for Wicks but the execution terrible. I always hope after a first inning like this one that the pitcher is tipping his pitches. As rough as that is, that’s at least something you can fix. Five runs because they picked something up on you is rough. Five runs because you just weren’t up the challenge is a problem.

Game 55, May 26: Pirates 12, Cubs 1 (29-26)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Alex Bregman (.074). 2-4, 2B, R
• Hero: Michael Busch (.023). 1-4, BB
• Sidekick: Kevin Alcántara (.000). 0-1
• Note: Hoby Milner also posted .000, but in this instance, I utilized official scorer’s discretion and credited the performance that was “better” or “more valuable” to the team. Or in this case, less detrimental.

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Jordan Wicks (-.331). 4.1 IP, 24 BF, 9 H, BB, 8 ER, 5 K (L 0-1)
• Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.088). 0-3, HBP, DP
• Kid: Nico Hoerner (-.060). 1-5

WPA Play of the Game: Brandon Lowe batted with a runner on first in the first inning with no outs. He singled and the runners ended up at second and third after Pete Crow-Armstrong threw to third to try to get the lead runner. (.099)

Cubs Play of the Game: Ian Happ batted with a runner on second and no outs in the second, the Cubs down 5. He doubled, driving in the lone Cub run. (.059)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 54 Winner: Ben Brown received 112 of 114 votes (at 98.25%, the highest percentage to date this year).

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Michael Busch +20
• Nico Hoerner +12
• Michael Conforto +9
• Alex Bregman +7.5
• Shōta Imanaga +7
• Ryan Rolison -8
• Phil Maton -9
• Matt Shaw -10
• Dansby Swanson -12
• Seiya Suzuki -25.5

Current Win Pace: 85.42 wins

Up Next: Game three of the four-game series on Wednesday night. Jameson Taillon (2-4, 5.20, 55.1 IP) makes his 11th start of the season. He’s lost three straight and allowed 12 runs over his last 9.2 innings of work. 23-year-old Bubba Chandler (1-6, 4.60, 47 IP) is also making his 11th start of the year. He’s lost his last two starts and hasn’t won since April 17. Last time out, he was undone by his defense, allowing three unearned runs over five innings. Taillon’s most recent win is April 29, so he’s had the more recent success of the two. Chandler was the 72nd pick of the 2021 draft by the Pirates, right out of high school.

One of these days, the tide will turn. But it’s getting hard to keep the faith.

Another fun packed night down on the farm for the prospects. Here are recaps of each game.

Buffalo 5, Lehigh Valley 4

This one was a thriller. Lehigh Valley was down for most of the game, yet got home runs in the eighth and ninth innings from Dylan Moore and Carter Kieboom to knot the game at three a piece. However, in the tenth inning, Nolan Hoffman was unable to record an out, allowing two runs to score and giving Buffalo the game. Felix Reyes continued his assault on minor league pitching, going two for four with an RBI.

Reading 10, Harrisburg 1

A solid pitching effort from Braydon Tucker was the highlight of this victory, as was a huge day from the offense. The former went seven innings, giving up only a single run on five hits, his (and Reading’s) best starting pitching performance on the season. The offense had several players have multi hit days, including Austin Murr, Alex Binelas, Kehden Hettiger and Raylin Heredia. Aroon Escobar chipped in a home run, topping off the offensive onslaught.

Frederick 10, Jersey Shore 2

Not the greatest of evenings for the BlueClaws as the pitching struggled and the offense was shut down. Ryan Drombowski started off hot, retiring the first nine batters he saw, but had the wheels fall off in the fourth and fifth innings thanks to some timely hitting and an untimely balk on his own part. For the offense, Luis Caicuto was the lone spark of offense, homering in the fifth inning, collecting two hits on the day.

Clearwater 10, Dunedin 8

The lone victory in the minor league organization, Clearwater rode a 14 hit barrage to ten runs and the win. There were multiple stars on offense on the evening, five players having multi hit games, led by a three hit game from Juan Villavicencio and a two double night from Allirio Ferrebus. For me, the highlight is Victor Cardoza. You get a guy that hits a baseball in the minors at 104 and I’m going to pay attention.

1933
On the same day that the White Sox were awarded the very first All-Star Game, the club suffered their second-worst turnaround loss ever. Up 11-3 heading into the bottom of the eighth at Yankee Stadium, the White Sox surrendered 12 runs and wound up losing the game an inning later, 15-11. Ted Lyons surrendered the first six runs but left the game still ahead, 11-9; relievers Jake Miller (none retired, three hits including a single to Babe Ruth and a double to Lou Gehrig, three earned, loss) and Ed Durham (two-thirds of an inning, three hits, two earned, walk, two Ks, homer, blown save) put the nails in the coffin. For Miller, the three runs were the first earned runs he’d surrendered all season.

1938
With a home run into the center field bleachers, more than 440 feet from home plate, Hank Greenberg became the second player in baseball history to put a ball both in the bleachers and over the roof at Comiskey Park. Greenberg had hit a homer over the roof just a month earlier, on April 21.

With the blast, Greenberg became the second player to put a ball in the bleachers along with having been the fourth to homer over the roof at Comiskey Park. Jimmie Foxx preceded Greenberg in accomplishing both home runs. The only other hitters to accomplish this feat before home plate was moved eight feet closer to the fences in 1982 were White Sox sluggers Dick Allen and Richie Zisk in the 1970s.

Just 3,000 fans witnessed Greenberg’s blast, which helped push Detroit starter Vern Kennedy to 7-0 for the Tigers with a 5-2 win. The White Sox dropped to 12-14, and they would not be even that close to .500 for the rest of the season.

1950
Red Corriden was named the interim manager of the White Sox, after Jack Onslow’s firing on May 26. The White Sox hit the field at Comiskey and won the new skipper’s debut, 6-1, behind a complete-game effort from Billy Pierce and a five-run rally in the bottom of the eighth to snap a 1-1 tie with Cleveland.

Onslow had gotten the White Sox off to a 8-22-1 start, after overseeing the Sox to a 63-91 record in his first year as skipper in 1949; thus it was his horrible record, and not merely the fact that new GM Frank Lane wanted his own man in the manager’s chair. Corriden led the White Sox to a 52-72-1 record — a .419 pace, compared to .267 under Onslow.

Alas, despite the brighter play (the new skipper won five of his first six games) Corriden was a true interim manager, as Lane settled on Paul Richards as White Sox manager for 1951. Corriden became a Dodgers scout for all of the 1950s, before passing away just three weeks after his 49th birthday, in 1959.

1951
In sweeping a doubleheader in Cleveland, 5-2 and 6-4, the White Sox completed an 11-0 road trip, which remains the best in their history. It included triumphs over five different teams: Boston (two games), New York (one), Washington (three) Philadelphia (one), and Cleveland (four).

The road trip began with the White Sox at 12-9-1 and in third place in the American League, three games out. Unfortunately, the first-place Yankees got hot at the same time, so by the end of the road trip the White Sox were 23-9 and in second place, but still one game behind New York.

Returning home, the White Sox would win another three games to close out May, running a winning streak of 14 games and unbeaten to 15. It remains the second-longest winning streak in team history. The club finished May 1951 with a 20-5 record. In fact, their very next win pushed the White Sox into first place, where they remained for the next 34 days. Not bad for a team that had lost 94 games in 1950!

1994
Wilson Alvarez was masterful in extending his winning streak to a club record-tying 15 games. The lefthander fired a six-hit shutout at the Baltimore Orioles in a 3-0 win before 34,351 at Comiskey Park. The win was the last in Alvarez’s streak, which began on Aug. 24, 1993. Darrin Jackson doubled in a run in the first, Tim Raines’ sac fly brought home a run in the seventh and Frank Thomas homered in the eighth. 

Alvarez’s streak would end on June 7 at Comiskey Park, when he was bombed by the Blue Jays in a 9-5 loss, going three innings and giving up six runs.   

1997
Cleveland pulled off the first triple-steal in the majors in 21 years, in an 8-2 win over the White Sox. In the sixth inning with the bases loaded, Ehren Wasserman made a pickoff attempt at first base that caught Jamey Carroll off-guard. During the rundown, David Dellucci scampered home, Grady Sizemore took third base and Carroll beat the rundown to get to second base safely.

2017
The White Sox scored a coup and surprised the baseball world by announcing the signing of 19-year-old Cuban outfield prospect Luis Robert Jr. to a minor-league contract. Robert’s deal included a stunning, $26 million signing bonus. While the St. Louis Cardinals were big bidders for Robert, reportedly offering more than Chicago, Robert appreciated the White Sox having such a rich heritage of Cuban players. With the influence of first baseman/Cuba native José Abreu, Robert signed on the South Side.

Robert had been on the radar of major league teams since he was 15 years old because of his speed, power and compact swing. He was considered one of the top amateur players in the world and represented a significant addition as the White Sox were rebuilding a franchise that had grown stale and had limited success on the field and in the stands. 

Robert had a tremendous 2019 minor-league season and then signed a long-term contract extension with the White Sox before making his big league debut in 2020; that year, he won a Gold Glove and finished second in Rookie of the Year voting. Injuries have slowed his development in both 2021 and 2022, but his potential remains unlimited.

The St. Louis Cardinals – and even his own manager – did not care for Abner Uribe's "triple crotch chop" celebration. Uribe took issue with his belief the Cardinals threatened to intentionally throw at his Milwaukee Brewers teammates.

And the latest drama in the National League Central unfolded in a predictably absurd fashion.

Uribe was upbraided by Brewers manager Pat Murphy after directing his histrionics toward the Cardinals dugout after striking out Alec Burleson to end the eighth inning of Milwaukee's 6-0 victory at American Family Field on Tuesday, May 26.

"It’s just unacceptable," Murphy told reporters following the victory. "I don’t know what got over him. I mean, he’s been an emotional guy. That’s just not how we do things. I was embarrassed by it. Why are we doing it in a 6-0 ballgame?

"There must be something deeper that I don’t know about. I love the kid, believe me. I love the kid. There’s so much good in this kid. He’s been great for us in so many ways, but that’s unacceptable. Whatever’s going on, you can’t tolerate that – for his teammates and for everyone else. It’s just not going to be tolerated. That’s all there is to it."

Abner Uribe hits the D-Generation X crotch chop after an inning-ending strikeout against the Cardinals. 😳 pic.twitter.com/ZPnV6atxyD

— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) May 27, 2026

Turns out, at least in Uribe's mind, there was something deeper going on. He claimed the Cardinals were intimating before their game Monday that they were going to intentionally throw at Brewers stars Christian Yelich and William Contreras.

So he issued an apology to his own team, but not the opposition.

"First and foremost, everyone here knows me and know who I am and knows I have a little bit of a history of being emotional out there," Uribe told reporters. "I think, first, I owe an apology to the Brewers, I owe an apology to my teammates, my manager, all the bosses of the team. It’s unacceptable to go out there and react in a way like that.

"But at the same time I don’t think it’s professional for their manager to be making signs to the dugout saying he’s going to be hitting guys. There was an event that occurred during practice today. I don't think that was right."

The apparent tension was heightened when Uribe threw a pitch up and in on Cardinals catcher Ivan Herrera in the eighth inning.

"It’s not fun if you throw 2-0 in here up to your head," Herrera told reporters. "I said, 'Keep it down, and he started laughing.' So, I mean, I didn’t do anything crazy."

Neither, the Cardinals claim, did they, telling the Belleville News-Democrat that they did not threaten the Brewers. Milwaukee has won the first two games between the clubs, with the series finale set for 1:40 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Brewers' Abner Uribe explains 'crotch chop' incident with Cardinals

One of the axioms I always live by is that I really don’t buy heavily into trends until Memorial Day. Obviously, Memorial Day has now come and gone. I have to admit that this early season has tested that axiom and my own patience as an analyst. I suppose this is my own version of a mea culpa. There are the numbers and they are what they are, but there are also the underlying reasons for the numbers. We should explore those before we get to the numbers themselves.

Reason One: Changes from the ABS system

The pitching lab works the way that any lab works. Science doesn’t happen without data. The Astros have famously taken pitchers that have struggled in other organizations and made them work here because they have relied more heavily on data than most organizations. That data pushed towards certain kinds of pitchers. The Astros have favored higher spin rates and pitchers that live successfully at the top of the zone and above.

Justin Verlander is probably the most famous of those examples but we could rattle off the names fairly easily here. They all had one thing in common. They had impressive four seam velocity and got hitters to chase near the top of the zone. The new ABS system has neutralized the high fastball considerably as the entire zone has moved lower. That could partially explain the heavy walks in the first month plus as pitchers suddenly weren’t getting the high strike calls and hitters weren’t chasing those four seam fastballs.

Obviously, the numbers (as we will see) have not completely stabilized and likely won’t throughout the season. That spills us into our second point, but the idea of data is important here. If the lab is built on data then there needed to be a healthy amount of new data to help the strategy evolve. Obviously, this alone will help performance some. We could certainly break each pitcher down between March/April and May, but suffice it to say, most of the Astros pitchers (that are still in Houston) have performed better than they did in March and April.

Reason Two: The who is more important than the what

One of the things that Joe Espada and Dana Brown will have to answer for are the slow starts. It is a noticeable trend and comes down to two very clear takeaways. First, there are some fundamental issues about how this team prepares in February and March. This year in particular saw very few pitchers building up the kinds of innings that we are traditionally used to. We were told they were throwing on the back fields and we were told not to worry. Clearly, those things were a concern and we were right to be concerned.

However, the Astros as an organization have lived around the margins with their pitching staff for over half a decade now. Each season is its own universe and the “back of the baseball card” gang have collectively failed to see that. Relief pitching in particular is a fungible asset which clearly points to a year to year quality of this whole thing. Espada has needed time to figure out who he can trust and how he can trust them.

This is not unique as every season has brought unique challenges in finding a reliable rotation and reliable high leverage relievers outside of Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader. Even if Abreu was the Abreu of old for the whole season, the Astros were still going to struggle with a new cast of characters and some obviously failed and failed pretty spectacularly. Some of those arms are no longer there and their absence has helped with the resurgence for the last four weeks.

The Numbers

We should start by talking about what these numbers mean and what they don’t mean. Absolutely, the staff has been considerably better overall. In particular, the total number of base runners per nine innings has fallen considerably. Obviously, they are doing a better job of keeping the ball in the ballpark. We did not list the strikeouts because there isn’t a considerable difference there.

Over a long enough timeline the survival rate drops to zero. With smaller samples there will always be random variance involved. That’s a fancy sounding term, so what does that mean exactly? It means that the numbers you see cannot be completely attributed to the quality of the pitchers or their performance. Sometimes there is good and bad luck involved. That can impact the batting average on balls in play (BABIP) but also the amount of home runs given up.

This means that if left to their own devices, the pitchers that started March and April would have likely improved naturally. The home run rate was unsustainable. Guys like Mike Burrows have not been good, but their underlying statistics show they would not have continued to be that bad. Over the course of a full season, those numbers will always normalize some.

These numbers do say two very important things. First, the Astros have made some personnel changes and usage changes that have positively impacted performance. We could name the names, but the current five or six man rotation is performing much better than the one that started the season. Maybe more importantly, whether through health or a better understanding of how to use each pitcher, the bullpen has become much more functional than it was in the first month.

Secondly, while the last month has been a bit of a lime wedge, the overall performance is not the kind of performance we saw from this team over the course of their dominant seasons. The team ERA over the last month has been nearly league average. They are still walking too many guys and giving up a few too many home runs to be called a good staff. In other words, they are not the historically horrific staff they were in the first month plus, but they are still not what any honest analyst would call a good staff either.

Obviously, some of that could change. Hunter Brown is set to return in another week or so. Josh Hader is set to return in another couple of weeks. One could easily foresee those two pitchers alone changing the calculus some. It also could be said that pitchers like Nate Pearson and Alimber Santa could potentially add to that when given more opportunities. I’m obviously not predicting that, but the possibility cannot be ignored.

The long and short of it is that this is likely an average pitching staff over the balance of a full season. The gains from Brown and Hader could be enough to offset the damage the first month caused. Also, it should be noted that the hitting between the first month and this past month has been a mirror image of the pitching gains. This leads me to the same math conclusion I reached before this recent road trip. The Astros on balance are no longer a bad baseball team. The question is whether they will be good enough to dig out of the hole the first month put them in. That remains to be seen. How optimistic are you for a total rebound?

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Back-to-back home runs by the Boston Red Sox in the first inning weren’t enough to stop the Atlanta Braves from adding another win to their MLB-best record, as they prevailed 7-6 on Tuesday night at Fenway Park.

While the NL East heavyweights enter tonight’s matchup at essentially a pick’em price, my Braves vs. Red Sox predictions are backing Atlanta behind another strong outing from Bryce Elder.

Let's get right into my MLB picks for Wednesday, May 27. 

Who will win Braves vs Red Sox today: Braves (-108)

Chris Sale may get most of the attention atop the Atlanta Braves' rotation, but Bryce Elder has been every bit as dominant in his own right, leaning on a deep five-pitch mix to post a 1.97 ERA while ranking in the 90th percentile in Barrel% at Baseball Savant.

Elder is set to take on a Boston Red Sox offense that has been virtually non-existent in 2026, sitting 29th in runs per game (3.7) and sporting a .696 OPS on the year.

On the other hand, Atlanta’s lineup has swung back to form this season, ranking third in wOBA (.334), wRC+ (112), and trailing only the New York Yankees in team home runs. Take the Braves to make it consecutive wins in Beantown, and I’d play this up to -125.

COVERS INTEL: Despite Elder averaging just 92.6 mph on his heater — 2.5 mph below the league average — the right-hander’s fastball run value sits in the 100th percentile.

Braves vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-117)

Although Robert Suarez and Raisel Iglesias each pitched an inning yesterday for Atlanta, Monday was an off-day for the Braves, which should allow them to run it back with their high-leverage bullpen arms tonight. Meanwhile, both Aroldis Chapman and Garrett Whitlock are coming off multiple days of rest for the BoSox.

Both bullpens rank Top 5 in reliever ERA, and I expect the offense to dry up for the most part after the first five innings. These teams are a combined 48-55 to the Over/Under this season, and considering the floundering Red Sox are already without Roman Anthony, I'm leaning toward the Under.

Braves vs Red Sox odds

• Moneyline: Braves -108 | Red Sox -108
• Run line: Braves -1.5 (+146) | Red Sox +1.5 (-176)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+104) | Under 8.5 (-117)

Braves vs Red Sox trend

Atlanta is a league-best 20-8 SU on the road this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Red Sox.

How to watch Braves vs Red Sox and game info

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Braves vs Red Sox weather

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Jorge Polanco is set to begin a rehab assignment with the Binghamton Rumble Ponies this morning as he battles back from bursitis in his Achilles. The twelve-year veteran has been on the injured list since April 14.

One of the Mets’ key free-agent acquisitions, Polanco played just 14 games before bursitis and a wrist injury sidelined him. He signed a two-year, $40 million deal with the Mets in an attempt to fill the void left by Pete Alonso’s departure in free agency. Thus far, he’s hit .179/.246/.286 in 61 plate appearances with the team.

It has been a battle for Polcanco to get on the field. It was the wrist injury that originally put him on the IL, but his Achilles injury started before and lasted longer than his wrist injury. Polanco received platelet-rich plasma injections to manage the pain and return to the field.

Manager Carlos Mendoza explained that Polanco will likely need to manage his Achilles for the rest of the season and maybe beyond due to the chronic nature of the injury, adding that Polanco will likely get more run at DH than first base when he arrives back with the big league club.

“Hopefully, we can get him a game or two at first base, but try to keep him off his feet as much as possible,” Mendoza said. “He’ll play some first base once he goes through his rehab assignment, but probably looking more like DH. We want to keep his bat in the lineup as much as possible.”

Polanco is coming off a resurgent year where he hit 26 home runs with an .821 OPS for the Seattle Mariners. The last-place Mets will take whatever they can get from the veteran as they try to save the season. New York has lost seven of its last eight games with a team slugging percentage of .349 that ranks last in baseball this year.

Morning, all!

Tuesday was Josh Jung’s first game back after missing two games with a sore shoulder, an injury that “freaked him out”due to a surgery he had for a torn labrum on the same shoulder four years ago.

Jacob deGrom hasn’t missed any starts but maybe he wishes that he had, as he’s been leaving fastballs up in the zone and getting knocked around.

Shawn McFarland’s response to the Rangers getting no hit by some guy was to discuss the dismantling of the roster at the trade deadline.

Skip Schumaker blames himself for the weak performance on Tuesday.

Kennedi Landry’s mailbox column is full of questions about the temperature in the clubhouse with the Rangers’ recent struggles.

Jordan Montgomery was four weeks ahead of schedule in his return from an elbow surgery that has sidelined him since 2024 until his recovery hit a snag last week.

Jack Leiter has the potential to be an ace but is still figuring things out as evidenced by his three faceoffs against Yordan Alvarez last night.

Brandon Nimmo has taken the lead in counseling his teammates on addressing their individual strengths at the plate and kickstarted the biggest run scoring first inning the Rangers have had since 2012 last night.

The team put up eight runs in the first on the way to a 10-7 win over the Astros last night, but if it takes getting no hit to spur that kind of production it’s going to be a frustrating season.

Good morning friends! Happy Wednesday to you all.

Last night, the Mariners triumphed over the A’s 4-1 thanks to another strong outing from Emerson Hancock, who kept it rolling even in the hitter-friendly Sacramento confines.

The M’s have a chance to slide back into first place in the AL West with a win today in the series finale. At this stage, which AL West rival do you see as the biggest threat to the M’s chances of winning the division?

In Mariners news…

• Cal Raleigh resumed baseball activity for the first time since hitting the injured list with an oblique issue. He remains without a clear timetable for return.
• Eric Sanford likened the players of the Seattle Mariners to characters from Breaking Bad.
• Jeff Passan gave his take on the Mariners’ starting rotation logjam and what he thinks they should do about it.

Around the league…

• Rays shortstop Wander Franco was found guilty of sexual and psychological abuse of a minor, but he will not serve time in prison.
• Former Braves All-Star Bob Horner passed away yesterday at the age of 68.
• The Chicago Cubs can’t catch a break, dropping their 10th straight ballgame last night in a 12-1 walloping at the hands of the Pirates.
• A day after being no-hit by the Astros, the Rangers put up eight runs in the first inning of a 10-7 victory.
• Davy Andrews at Fangraphs dug into the metrics behind the Astros’ combined no-hitter to determine just how improbable it was.
• Kansas City Chiefs star tight end Travis Kelce purchased a minority ownership stake in the Cleveland Guardians. Though he works in Royals country, Kelce is a native of the Cleveland area.
• Matt Gelb at The Athletic wonders what the Phillies will do in the outfield with both Adolis García and Nick Castellanos struggling. ($)
• Don’t love to see Cal at the top of this list…

Happy Wednesday A’s Fans!

Over the past few years, the Athletics have built one of the most exciting young offensive cores in baseball, largely comprising players drafted and developed by the team. Guys like Jacob Wilson and Nick Kurtz did not need much minor league development time, while the likes of Tyler Soderstrom, Lawrence Butler and Zack Gelof spent considerably more time honing their skills in the team’s farm system. Toss in Shea Langeliers, who was acquired in the Matt Olson trade with the Atlanta Braves, and Brent Rooker, who was picked off of waivers after failing to hit with multiple teams, and the A’s have an offense that has the talent to put up multiple runs every game.

However, hitting is only part of the game, as baseball teams also need strong pitching and defense. In the A’s case, those latter two elements are especially important because both their current ballpark in West Sacramento and their future home in Las Vegas are exceptionally hitter-friendly environments.

Through 54 games this season, the A’s pitching staff has mirrored last year’s performance, posting a road ERA nearly two runs lower than its ERA at Sutter Health Park. Out of 30 MLB teams, the A’s have the 23rd-ranked ERA and have allowed the fourth-most home runs. The team’s highest-paid pitcher, Luis Severino, is not complaining as much as he did last year, although he still is struggling to pitch effectively at the minor-league ballpark.

Aware of the team’s need for better pitching to complete its rise from rebuilders to American League playoff contenders, the A’s solution may come from within. The team’s top pitching prospect, left-hander Gage Jump took Civale’s place on the roster and made his MLB debut last night against the Seattle Mariners. Jump pitched his way onto the team’s radar and league-wide prospect lists in his eye-opening first professional season last year. He had a mediocre first outing, allowing four runs on nine hits over five innings. Hopefully, now that he got his feet wet, he can pitch better and pick up his first win in his next start.

Jump could soon be joined by fellow top left-handed pitching prospects Jamie Arnold and Wei-En Lin, both of whom are doing well with the A’s Double-A affiliate. Should Jump stick with the A’s the rest of the season, that would leave a void in the Triple-A rotation, which will likely go to one of these standouts.

While these left-handers receive most of the attention, the A’s do have some noteworthy right-handers. Either Kade Morris and/or Braden Nett could follow in outfielder Henry Bolte’s and Jump’s footsteps by making the leap from Triple-A to MLB.

Right-hander Luis Morales is a big wild card. He showed flashes of promise last season, but has struggled in the majors and the minors this year. Lastly, it would be remiss to leave out right-handers J.T. Ginn and Jack Perkins, who have shown the ability to get MLB hitters out in spades over these past few weeks.

If the Athletics remain in American League West contention once the trade deadline looms, do you want them to trade a couple prospects for pitching help? If so, which pitcher would be the best fit to help this year’s squad?

A’s Coverage:

• A’s lose to Mariners 4-1, Kurtz Streak ends with O-fer
• Is A Jump In Talent Nigh?
• What to expect when A’s Jump makes leap to MLB
• What The Mariners’ Slow First 1/3 Means For The AL West
• Wilson takes swings in next step toward return from IL
• After facing Miller for first time, how is blockbuster trade looking for A’s?
• Athletics Drop Series Opener to Mariners 9-2
• A’s Win In San Diego, Beat Padres 5-2
• “State Of The Rotation”: A Projected Weakness, An Actual…?
• Big Amish, meet Man of Steal: Kurtz ties Henderson’s 46-game on-base streak
• Jump, A’s No. 3 prospect, dazzles to extend scoreless streak
• Guerrero touts West Sacramento’s MLB experience as expansion looms large
• Fans embrace ‘Sacramento A’s’ as Athletics lean into second season at Sutter Health Park
• ’Gut-wrenching’: Ginn takes no-no into ninth only to give up walk-off home run
• Kurtz in rarefied air through 162 career games

MLB News and Interest:

• MLB Power Rankings: What’s in your team’s first-half future? We’ve got some predictions
• Astros combine on MLB’s 1st no-hitter since 2024, 18th in club history
• Angels fan protests are becoming too loud to ignore, but team leadership is doing so anyway
• Blue Jays Place Dylan Cease On 15-Day IL
• Bob Horner, former No. 1 pick who had a 4-HR game, dies at 68
• Miz raises bar for 100+ mph pitches: ‘That’s what I do, I throw hard’
• Wander Franco found criminally responsible, but no charges
• MLB going all-out to celebrate America’s Semiquincentennial
• Inside the rise of Pokémon card collecting in MLB clubhouses
• Rays hope veteran Kimbrel can benefit struggling bullpen
• Dodgers Reinstate Kiké Hernández, Designate Santiago Espinal
• Rockies Place José Quintana On 15-Day IL With Sprained Elbow
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

The Athletics are shaking up their rotation, likely due to the Mariners’ team-wide struggles against left-handed pitching.

What an amazing catch by A’s Double-A Midland outfielder Carlos Pacheco in his game this past Sunday!

Outfielder Cade Marlowe is performing well with the A’s Triple-A affiliate. Should he get an opportunity to contribute at the major-league level, especially given Lawrence Butler’s offensive struggles?

The A’s continuing to show that community impact matters just as much as what happens on the field:

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Please, Lord, get me out of this home-run cooler. I have some of the best bats in some of the best matchups for dingers and MLB player props, at great prices.

I am not giving up on dingers in Sacramento, as it's the best park by far for home runs today, while the Cincinnati Reds will get a heavy dose of HR-friendly right-handed arms with winds aiding left-handed bats.

These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Wednesday, May 27.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Shea Langeliers	+346
Nathaniel Lowe	+610

Home run pick: Shea Langeliers (+346)

Let's roll with the best +EV home run prop, per the projections at Covers, in the best HR environment on the slate, according to Ballpark Pal. This is once again a great spot for dingers, with both starters ranking in the bottom 35 among starting pitchers in HR/FB rate.

Logan Gilbert has been giving up plenty of fly balls lately, carrying just a 39% groundball rate over his last five starts. His 21% HR/FB rate also ranks in the bottom 15 among starters.

Shea Langeliers has already gone yard in this series and brings a strong fly-ball profile of his own, posting a 51% fly-ball rate over the last 30 days along with the team’s best Ideal Attack Angle, per FanGraphs bat-tracking metrics.

His arrow has been pointing up all season, and now he gets a great pitching matchup, an elite hitting environment, and a home run price sitting roughly 50 points above the fair number.

• Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSCA, Mariners.TV

Home run pick: Nathaniel Lowe (+610)

The projections love the Cincinnati Reds to go deep today, and Nathaniel Lowe at +500 or better is the bat I want from this visiting lineup.

He’ll likely see an opener before facing bulk reliever Jonah Tong, who allowed eight home runs in 38 Triple-A innings this year while posting a 5.68 ERA. It sets up as a favorable matchup for Cincinnati hitters, who have already gotten a look at this New York bullpen.

Lowe carries a fair price around +500. Over the last 14 days, he has led the team in bat speed at 75.1 mph while also posting a 25% HR/FB rate and a .645 slugging percentage.

He has been even hotter over the last week and gets the lefty-righty edge with 9-mph winds blowing out to right field. He sat yesterday against a lefty, but now gets a right-handed opener followed by a right-handed bulk arm with home-run issues. The Mets also appear to have only one available left-hander in the bullpen today.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SNY, Reds.TV

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.