ARLINGTON, TEXAS - MAY 13: Danny Jansen #9 of the Texas Rangers celebrates with teammates following a run scoring single against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the ninth inning at Globe Life Field on May 13, 2026 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Morning, all!
Adam and I were at the game last night, though Adam left in the sixth and missed the theatrics. That was something.
Chris Martin made a rehab appearance for Round Rock on Tuesday and batters teed off on his splitter. Martin doesn’t know if it’s a mechanical issue or execution and described the sudden demise of his most effective pitch “a real head scratcher.”
Nathan Eovaldi threw a bullpen session yesterday and thinks he will be able to make his next scheduled start on Sunday, though Skip Schumaker is not yet ready to write that in stone.
Last night’s walkoff featured some unlikely heroes in Jake Butger and Danny Jansen.
Jansen would say he’s not an unlikely hero at all, as he reminded his teammates that last night was his fifth career walkoff hit.
The New York Mets will look to complete a home sweep as they take on the Detroit Tigers at Citi Field on Thursday afternoon.
Nolan McLean takes the mound for New York, and my Tigers vs. Mets predictions believe he'll help the Mets dominate Detroit.
Keep reading to see my full analysis and free MLB picks for May 14.
Who will win Tigers vs Mets today: Mets moneyline (-160)
Nolan McLean has been one of the few bright spots for the New York Mets this year, and if anything, his results haven’t quite lived up to his performance.
McLean is averaging 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings, has a WHIP of 0.904, and has an xERA of 2.34, putting him in the 94th percentile of eligible pitchers.
The Mets have been able to shut down the Detroit Tigers so far in this series, allowing just two runs in each of the first two games.
McLean is a step up in competition from what the Tigers have faced so far in this series, and I see the 24-year-old leading the Mets to victory this afternoon.
COVERS INTEL: The Tigers are pulling only 10.5% of sinkers they put in the air off of right-handed pitchers, a pitch McLean throws 36% of the time.
Tigers vs Mets Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-115)
McLean hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a game so far this season. Of his eight starts so far this season, only one has resulted in a total of more than eight runs.
That’s on brand for New York, which has hit the Under in eight of its last 10 overall.
Neither team is likely to string together long innings today, making the Under a strong play.
Ed Scimia's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 8-13, -5.62 units
Over/Under bets: 7-12, -5.53 units
Tigers vs Mets odds
Moneyline: Tigers +140 | Mets -160
Run line: Tigers +1.5 | Mets -1.5
Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Tigers vs Mets trend
The Mets are 5-1 straight up in their last six games against the Tigers. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Mets.
How to watch Tigers vs Mets and game info
Location
Citi Field, Queens, NY
Date
Thursday, May 14, 2026
First pitch
1:10 p.m. ET
TV
DSN, SNY
Tigers starting pitcher
Keider Montero (2-2, 3.18 ERA)
Mets starting pitcher
Nolan McLean (1-2, 2.78 ERA)
Tigers vs Mets latest injuries
Tigers vs Mets weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
CINCINNATI, OHIO - MAY 09: Chase Burns #26 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches during the third inning against the Houston Astros at Great American Ball Park on May 09, 2026 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Well then.
The Cincinnati Reds have fumbled the first two games of this series away, the Washington Nationals being perfectly positioned to recover them. So, once again, the Reds will turn to young Chase Burns needing him to perform a miracle just to rescue them from worst-case scenario.
After Wednesday’s blown 5-run lead and debacle down the stretch, the Reds now sit just a lone game over the .500 mark at 22-21, so you know what a loss today would mean – especially given the kind of start to their season that had the walls shaking.
Lefty Foster Griffin – who has been quite good so far this season – takes the mound, and the Reds will have to adapt their new lineup accordingly. To date, Cincinnati’s offense boasts just an 84 wRC+ against southpaws so far this year, a mark that’s just 23rd overall in the sport. That includes a woeful .196 average that’s the worst in the sport.
First pitch is set for 12:40 PM ET. Here’s how both clubs will line up to start:
Kiké Hernández, left, is eligible to return from the 60-day injured list on May 24. (Ronaldo Bolanos / Los Angeles Times)
All Kiké Hernández knew about Albuquerque — the home of the Triple-A Isotopes — was the city’s elevation. But the city knew him.
For years, the city’s baseball fans grew up watching the Dukes, the former longtime Dodgers affiliate. So when Hernández arrived with the Oklahoma City Comets to continue his rehab assignment on Tuesday, the opposing fans greeted him with a thunderous ovation.
The Dodgers' recovering utilityman struggled to encapsulate his feelings about the reception.
“A little bit shocked. Slightly embarrassed, but good,” he told reporters, including Geoff Grammer of the Albuquerque Journal, before the Comets' 8-2 loss on Wednesday.
The fans’ positivity offset the emotionally tough road back from left elbow surgery to fix a tear in Hernández's tendon. Before this year, the utilityman, who agreed to a one-year, $4.5-million deal with the Dodgers in February, never missed spring training or opening day in his career.
Hernández, who is eligible to return from the 60-day injured list May 24, is 2 for 15 with a double in five games with the Comets.
“I knew it was going to be a long rehab," he said. "And even though I'm ahead of schedule, it still feels like it's forever."
The 34-year-old now finds himself at a crossroads. Although he remains locked onto each pitch he can possibly watch from the Dodgers, he also wants to mentor the players in Oklahoma City.
The paternal instinct comes naturally for Hernández, who has taken the time off to enjoy his wife and his two children, including his son who was born in February.
“We're not just baseball players,” he said. “So being able to help my wife out, and spend time with the baby and with my daughter, it's been huge, and that's kept my mind busy."
At the end of the day, though, Hernández wants to be healthy, preferably in Los Angeles.
With the Dodgers last season, he hit .203, with 10 homers across 92 games — though the team values him more for what he can do in the postseason. His career numbers in the playoffs include a .272 batting average with a .486 slugging percentage and an .826 on-base plus slugging percentage.
“I just want to feel good,” he said. “Last year was miserable, you know? Not only performance wise, but I was just in a lot of pain every time I took the field. So I'm just happy that I'm pain free right now.”
Chris Sale has always been a strikeout machine, and 2026 is no different.
The hard-throwing left-hander has racked up 56 Ks in 49 innings this season, and he's cashed the Over in punchouts in four straight starts. Last time out, he carved up the Dodgers, striking out seven across seven innings of work.
Sale will face the Chicago Cubs tonight, and while they're around the middle of the pack in team strikeouts, the Cubbies have fanned 10 times per game across their last three.
Sale also has 19 punchouts in 40 lifetime at-bats against this lineup.
Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, BravesVision
Trevor Story Over 0.5 runs (+140)
Trevor Story isn't having the best campaign for the Boston Red Sox, hitting just .211. However, he's been helping his team score runs lately.
Overall, Story has come across the plate 16 times in '26, and he's cashed the Over in runs in three of his last five games. On Wednesday, Story finished 2-for-3 with a home run against the Philadelphia Phillies with one run scored.
Jesus Luzardo takes the hill for the Phils tonight, and Story is 3-for-7 lifetime against the struggling lefty, who owns a 5.77 ERA.
Story is riding a three-game hitting streak, and he's served as a key piece in their offense lately. After swinging it well on Thursday, he'll keep it rolling and put himself in a position to come across home plate again.
Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
Where to watch: NESN, NBC Sports Philadelphia
Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 runs (+110)
We'll stick with the same game here, but shift to the Phillies.
Kyle Schwarber is absolutely destroying baseballs lately. He's hitting .333 over the last seven days with a mind-boggling six home runs during that span, and six runs scored.
Schwarber has hit the Over in runs in six of his last seven contests.
Schwarber is 0-for-5 lifetime against former teammate Ranger Suarez, but his confidence is at a sky-high level right now, and he's getting on base a lot, reaching four times in his last two appearances.
Although Schwarber didn't score a run on Thursday, he still had a pair of walks.
Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
Where to watch: NESN, NBC Sports Philadelphia
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
Prop picks: 27-47, +5.48 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
ATLANTA, GA - SEPTEMBER 15: A Rawlings baseball glove belonging to Los Angeles Dodgers infielder Enrique Hernandez #8 sits on the infield grass prior to the MLB game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Atlanta Braves on September 15, 2024 at TRUIST Park in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Two outstanding starts and two blowups. There was no middle ground for starters in the Dodgers minor league system, with only the Loons earning a win.
Player of the day
Sometimes your best isn’t enough, and that was the case for Isaac Ayon, who could only cover five scoreless innings in the matchup between the Tower Buzzers and Giants. As impressive as keeping the Giants off the board was, the manner in which Ayon accomplished that stood out even more, earning two-thirds of his outs via strikeout.
— Ontario Tower Buzzers (@towerbuzzers) May 14, 2026
Ayon now has 35 strikeouts in 27.1 innings with a terrific 1.02 WHIP. The 10 strikeouts and only one hit allowed both represented his best marks on the season.
Triple-A Oklahoma City
As much as a couple of errors didn’t help, Cole Irvin’s six-run blowup in the second inning of an eventual 8-2 loss goes beyond that. It could’ve been even worse for Irvin, but reliever Carlos Duran managed back-to-back strikeouts with the bases loaded to keep the damage there.
Recently sent down to make room for the return of Mookie Betts, Alex Freeland combined with Kiké Hernández to go 0 for 7 as the only extra-base hit by a Comets player came from eighth-hole hitter Zach Ehrhard. The center fielder left the yard with a solo shot in the fifth. James Tibbs III wasn’t in the lineup for this one.
It wasn’t a good day for starting pitchers in the upper levels of the Dodgers minor league systems, as Patrick Copen also fell victim to a blowup inning, with the Cardinals beating them 9-5. Considering just how vulnerable he looked, allowing eight hits and five walks, Copen might’ve even gotten away with one, conceding just six earned runs across 4.1 innings.
Despite the damage the pitching staff allowed, the Comets had an opportunity to make this a game, particularly given their success on the basepaths, successful on all four of their steal attempts—the issue was a terrible 3 for 18 with runners in scoring position. Eljah Hainline reached a team-high three times safely and stole two bases.
High-A Great Lakes
A lousy first inning defensively from the Whitecaps allowed the Loons to score two of their runs on a wild pitch and a throwing error to take an early 3-0 lead. That would be it for the Loons until the ninth inning, when, with a tied game, catcher Jesus Gallz walked things off with an RBI single.
The reliever who coughed up the lead in the eighth, Davis Chastain, had his first blown save of the season, but since he finished that and the following inning, he was also the winning pitcher. Chastain now moves to a 4-0 record on the year, largely helped by starter Sterling Patrick, who was superb with six scoreless frames.
Class-A Ontario
Ayon deserved better than the zero he received from his offense, and quite literally, anything else would’ve been enough to at the very least stave off defeat, as the Tower Buzzers were beaten 1-0 by the Giants. Ontario’s starter needed just 76 pitches to earn those 10 strikeouts and deliver his best performance of the season.
Struggling offensively, the Giants manufactured a run against reliever Jholbran Herder in the sixth. Andy Polanco reached safely and stole back-to-back bases to later score on a simple groundout. Weirdly, a team with no doubles and no home runs, the Tower Buzzers managed three triples and stranded them all. It’s not every day you see something like that.
Transactions
The Great Lakes Loons activated catcher Gio Cueto from the injured list.
Wednesday’s scores
Albuquerque 8, Oklahoma City 2
Tulsa 5, Springfield 9
Great Lakes 4, West Michigan 3
Ontario 0, San Jose 1
Thursday’s schedule
10:05 a.m. PT: Oklahoma City (Christian Romero) at Albuquerque (TBD)
3:05 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Zach Root) vs. West Michigan (Lucas Elissalt)
5:00 p.m. PT: Tulsa (Wyatt Crowell) vs. Springfield (TBD)
6:35 p.m. PT: Ontario (Brady Smith) vs. San Jose (TBD)
— Nebraska Baseball (@HuskerBaseball) May 11, 2026
It’s the final weekend of the regular season, so time to think about the Big Ten Tournament. The Huskers are currently residing 2nd in the standings behind 26-1 UCLA who is locked into the top spot. With USC and Oregon being in 3rd and 4th and playing each other, it would be nearly impossible for Nebraska to fall out of the 4 teams that make the 2nd half of the tournament. But there is still something to play for, as the top 2 seeds will play teams that come out of the losers bracket and with that, those team will have played an extra game, and used more pitchers.
In case you were wondering, Purdue sits tied for 4th with Oregon and one game behind 3rd place USC. If Oregon wins 2 of 3 against USC this weekend, and Purdue beats Iowa 2 to 1, there would be a 3 way ties for 3rd, with Oregon owning both tiebreakers, and USC owning the tiebreaker against Purdue. A Purdue sweep of Iowa could potentially vault them into the 3rd spot. And being the final week of the season, chaos due to the tarp is always in play. #NeverForget
Minnesota on the other hand is battling to not get left out of the 12 team tournament. They are currently in a 4 way tie for 10th place in the Big Ten, with Rutgers, Washington, and Michigan State. Odds are that one of those 4 teams will join Penn State, Maryland, Indiana, and Northwestern watching at home. (Boy, who had those first three missing Omaha at the beginning of the season??) Also, Wisconsin is still too scared and un-American to field a team.
— Nebraska Baseball (@HuskerBaseball) May 13, 2026
Game 1: RHP Carson Jasa (9-2, 3.31 ERA) vs. RHP Isaac Morton (4-2, 3.43 ERA)
Game 2: RHP Ty Horn (2-2, 3.97 ERA) vs. RHP Marcus Kruzan (4-3, 3.24 ERA)
Game 3: RHP Gavin Blachowicz (4-2, 3.18 ERA) vs. RHP Cole Selvig (5-4, 5.40 ERA)
FINALLY, Carson Jasa is your reigning Big Ten Pitcher of the Week. He has locked down the Nebraska Friday night starting slot that has been a glaring issue for a majority of the season. Jasa was dominant in Nebraska’s run rule victory, striking out 9 Hawkeyes in 7 shutout innings. He only allowed 2 hits, both singles, and 2 walks to a team that was leading the conference in batting average coming into the series.
Ty Horn had a very solid return to the starting rotation. He put in a quality start, allowing 2 earned runs over 6 innings, an striking out 6. As has been the case most of the season on his starts, the bullpen gave up the lead and despite the team getting a win, he did not qualify for one. That being said, his fastball looked a lot more alive and he was much better at hitting the bottom of the zone and piling up strikes, despite a notoriously challenging umpire.
For only the second time all season, Gavin Blachowicz has given up multiple earned runs in back to back outings. He didn’t quite have the location of his pitches on point in the Iowa series finale, and with the series already locked up, Nebraska wanted to get some innings in for some pitchers they hadn’t seen in a while too. Blachowicz seems to turn it up a notch on the road since conference play started, so look for a rebound this weekend.
After spending the first two seasons at Texas A&M and doing very well in limited innings, Isaac Morton returned to his home state to pitch for the Gophers. He’s pitched at different slots on the weekend, but has done well enough to be moved up to the top spot. Morton is tied for the team lead with 56 batters struck out in 57.2 innings, but also leads the team with 24 walks. He doesn’t go super deep into games for a Friday guy, having pitched under 85 pitches for the last 7 outings.
Saturday starter Marcus Kruzan is a transfer from St Thomas who has started most of the season. He has struck out 49 batters in 50 innings. He is another guy that generally goes only 3-5 innings and gets out before things go haywire. Former Friday starter Cole Selvig is pitching the Saturday game this week. He has also stuck out 56 batters and has pitched a team leading 63.1 innings. The Wisconsin native was a Texas Longhorn his freshman year before he returned to the north. He’s given up at least 3 runs in 6 of his last 8 outings, the only exceptions being the bottom feeding Northwestern and Penn State teams, hence the slight demotion.
Scouting Report
Minnesota has an aggressive offense. They have a couple assistants in charge of hitting that Husker fans should be familiar with. Connor Gandossy was the hitting coach and recruiting coordinator for Creighton for 7 seasons, and Sean Moore was the hitting coach at Iowa for 2024, and a volunteer assistant for Iowa in 2017-18, the Jake Adams era.
Minnesota leads the conference in steals with 102 on the year, next most being 89 by Iowa. They also have guys with a lot of power. Three gophers have over 10 home runsCatcher Weber Neels is the leader of the team. He has 196 career games and 182 career starts under his belt, so he’s seen everything. He’s batting a career and team best .337. He has 13 home runs and 53 RBIs. Add 23 walks and 16 hit-by-pitches, and he is on the basepaths a lot.
— Big Ten on D1Baseball (@B1G_D1Baseball) May 6, 2026
Another bug power bat is center fielder Easton Richter. After starting his career at Saint Louis, he really discovered his power in Minnesota. He had 12 home runs last year and has 14 this season, to go along with 16 doubles, 32 extra base hits in all. Add his 18 steals and he can be a real nightmare for opposing pitchers. Right fielder Charlie Sutherland is the other power bat, batting .322 with 11 home runs and 54 RBIs.
The Gophers have a good bullpen, and aren’t afraid to use them relatively early in games. Joe Sperry is the guy who will come in to put out the fires. He leads the team in appearances with 22, and leads the pen with both innings pitched and strikeouts with 41.2 and 49 respectively. He has a 2.81 ERA ion the year, best of the regulars.
.Grad transfer senior Brandon Jaenke is filling the closer role for the Gophers. He leads the team with 4 saves on the season. He has a 3.08 ERA and 26 strikeouts in 26.1 innings of work. Another late inning guy that will for sure take the mound is sophomore Adam Urban. He might have the best stuff on the team. He has thrown 28.2 innings in 19 appearances on the year. He has a 3.77 ERA and 40 strikeouts. While having that high of strikeout number, he has a .248 batting average against. So he has a tendency to lose his stuff over the middl of the plate.
Congrats to Brandon Jaenke on being named to the NCBWA Midseason Stopper of the Year Watchlist!
Minnesota has an elite defense, right behind Iowa and Nebraska for 3rd in the Big Ten with a 98.2% fielding percentage.
Series History
Nebraska leads the all time series 41-34-1 over Minnesota. Nebraska took the series in Lincoln last season. Minnesota won in 10 innings on Friday night on Husker closer Luke Broderick. But Nebraska came back and won in game 2 thanks to a big performance, including a walk off single from Robby Bolin, before running away with game 3.
On Deck
Carson Jasa is 4 strikeouts from tying Phil Harrison for the 10th most in a season in program history with 98. He is 7 behind Brett Sears for 9th.
Dylan Carey is 3 hits from tying Scott Schreiber for 5th in Husker history, and 5 hits from reaching Darin Erstad in 4th.
Jett Buck has 7 sacrifice flys on the season, which puts him tied for the 6th best season in program history. One more and he will be tied for 2nd.
Last weekends 22,815 fans in attendance for a series were most in the Big Ten era for Nebraska, and third most in a conference series all time at Haymarket Park.
You know you can’t get enough of watching Iowa lose, so enjoy the cinematic recap!
TAMPA, FLORIDA - MARCH 21, 2026: Eric Hartman #64 of the Atlanta Braves bats during the second inning of a Spring Breakout game against the New York Yankees at George M. Steinbrenner Field on March 21, 2026 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
The breakout man of the 2026 season had another outstanding day for Rome, providing more with his glove this time than his bat. His early double did contribute an RBI for the Emperors, but it was him soaring to rob a three-run home run that ultimately led to the Emperors prevailing in a close matchup. Elsewhere Alex Lodise had a home run while Derek Vartanian continues to impress in his professional debut.
Victor Mederos, SP: 4.2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 2.53 ERA
Daysbel Hernandez, RP: 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 3.72 ERA
It wasn’t a particularly good day for the Gwinnett Stripers, though a few flashes of good things came their way in an underwhelming loss. Victor Mederos pitched relatively well for the first time through the Durham order, but the second trip around combined with a dip in his velocity in late innings led to a poor ending. Running Mederos out for the fifth inning led to him getting hit extremely hard with two home runs, four three total runs, and three 100+ mph batted balls getting recorded against him. He was shuffled out of the game and the bullpen continued to struggle with four runs allowed over the next 2 1/3 innings, a deficit that would ultimately sink the Stripers in the game. For Daysbel Hernandez his inning of work was a nice milestone for his season as he averaged his highest fastball velocity in any outing of 2026 and pitched his fourth consecutive scoreless outing. Since a rough start to the season with diminished velocity he has turned back into more a semblance of his old self with one run allowed and nine strikeouts over his past 6 2/3 innings, though his velocity is still a tick down from where it’s been the past two seasons.
Offense was hard to come by for the Stripers in this game, as with no extra base hits and an 0-10 team performance with runners in scoring position it was no surprise that they struggled to score any runs. The two biggest contributions came from the two you would most want to hear good news from as both Nacho Alvarez and Jim Jarvis had solid performances. Alvarez’s two hits were both hard contact off of fastballs that he shot the other way, and Alvarez has thus far looked significantly more comfortable at the plate in May. He hasn’t been able to feed off of the two home runs he hit earlier in the month with no extra base hits since then, but his .395 OBP is more in line with what we’ve become used to seeing out of him and he’s hitting the ball hard more often. Jarvis also had a couple of hits and three total batted balls over 100 mph, though two of those contributed to his outs in the game. Jarvis smoked his hardest batted ball of the day in the third inning but sprayed it right at the first baseman for a lineout, and in the ninth inning sent a fly ball out to the wall in dead center field but just came up short of clearing the yard.
Patrick Clohisy, RF: 1-3, 3B, 2 BB, .231/.300/.374
Jordan Groshans, 3B: 4-4, 2B, HR, BB, 5 RBI, .237/.302/.517
Jack Dashwood, SP: 3 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 8.84 ERA
Luis Vargas, RP: 2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 4.57 ERA
Jordan Groshans had a monster day at the plate, his four hits and five RBIs leading the offensive charge in a high-powered win over the Smokies. Groshans got off to a hot start with a double in the first inning that one-hopped the center field wall, capping off a three-run inning for Columbus that gave them their first lead of the game. While Knoxville did answer with a couple of runs to tie the game up, the Clingstones kept coming and were fortunate to have three triples in this game. One of those came from Drew Compton in the fourth inning after a deep fly ball to right center field took a wild hop off of the tiptop of the wall and skittered away from both defenders. Compton would then score on a sacrifice fly and Groshans padded the lead the next inning to ensure the Clingstones would never trail again. This time Groshans got every bit of the ball and crushed a two run home run into the bullpen, ballooning the lead from one to three in the blink of an eye and giving Columbus all of the runs they would need to withstand the Knoxville offensive push. Groshans capped his day off with a bases-loaded, check swing single that scored two runs, a funky way to end Groshans’s best day as a Clingstone. More on those triples, Lizandro Espinoza kept up his hot hitting in the first inning of this game and got Columbus on the board first. He laces a liner into the left field gap, and an ill-advised dive allowed the ball to roll to the fence and bring home Patrick Clohisy while also letting Espinoza motor in to third easily. Six of Espinoza’s eleven hits this month have gone for extra bases, and he is currently in the midst of an eight game on base streak.
Starting pitching was a struggle in this one for Columbus thanks to another poor start from Jack Dashwood, who has had a hard time of it over his past four appearances. In these four games he has allowed 14 earned runs while only covering 10 1/3 innings, and he was only able to give the Clingstones three innings this game. After his departure Samuel Strickland had some success, but got ran out for a third inning and allowed two runs to shrink a comfortable Columbus lead to just one run. With the tying run on second and two outs in the sixth inning Columbus turned to Luis Vargas, and that decision was one that was critical in lifting the team to a win. Vargas quickly got out of the sixth inning and then pitched two dominate innings on his own, striking out four batters and not allowing a single ball to leave the infield. This was a great bounceback for Vargas after his worst outing of the year, and though his command has been spotty his stuff looks sharp and he has allowed a contact rate of just 66.5% this season.
Colin Daniel, SP: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 10 K, 5.34 ERA
The Rome Emperors went off in the first inning for four runs, and that was enough to seal the victory even with the offense in cruise control for the final seven innings. Who else but Eric Hartman got the game off to a quick start by hooking a liner into right field for an RBI double to score Isaiah Drake, and with two outs the runs started to pile up quickly. A Will Verdung double made it 3-0 in favor of Rome, and after chasing the starter from the game the Emperors got another on an RBI single from Mac Guscette. The bottom of the order did a great job of getting on base for the remainder of the game, but a combination of the top three not having their best day, lack of extra base hits, and unfortunate sequences led to the Emperors getting no more runs. Between Verdung, Keshawn Ogans, Guscette, and Jake Steels the bottom four produced six hits and three walk, but no extra base hits after the first inning and only one other runner even getting to third base. The Emperors were clearly the better team this game, but it would come down to a test of whether the Rome pitching staff could shut down Brooklyn for the rest of the game.
That last part isn’t exactly the toughest thing in the world to do. Brooklyn has the lowest team OPS in the South Atlantic League and no hitters in the lineup above an .800 OPS, so Colin Daniel and friends had their easiest matchup of the season facing them. Daniel has had a few games where his command has gotten inconsistent this season and that’s where trouble has arose for him, and today was a case where walks and poor location were something of a problem for him. His struggles were at their worst in the third inning when he allowed two walks, two hard hit singles, and a couple of runs, but Eric Hartman showed up with the glove and saved Daniel from disaster. Leadoff man Mitch Voit smoked a ball to left field with two runners on, and as the ball carried towards the wall Hartman chased it in a dead sprint. Hartman timed his jump and leaped at the wall and made a spectacular robbery, preserving the lead with the best defensive play of the prospect season thus far. Voit would bite Daniel with a tape measure shot two innings later, but this time with no runners on base Rome retained the lead by a single run. Daniel would likely have faced more trouble in this game if he wasn’t missing bats like crazy, racking up 10 strikeouts and 20 swing and misses, both season highs. The bullpen kept the energy high and retired every batter they faced, striking out six of those to close out the win.
Swing and Misses
Colin Daniel – 20
Riley Frey – 6
Isaac Gallegos – 3
(19-16) Augusta GreenJackets 3, (16-17) Myrtle Beach Pelicans 1
Derek Vartanian, SP: 5.2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, 3.66 ERA
Carter Lovasz, RP: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K, 1.02 ERA
You can always count on Augusta to give you something to get excited over. The trio once again all had hits and made an impact in a winning effort, and this time Alex Lodise is the one who stepped up with the biggest play of the game. Lodise hit an opposite field home run late in this game for his second hit of the evening, and there have been some good aspects to this mostly disappointing month of May. His strikeouts are still hovering in concerning territory, though his contact rates thus far give some indication he may improve by simple regression. His contact rate is still below the league average which is a major red flag for a major D1 player at Single-A, but his strikeout rate is hovering at about 4 percentage points higher than should be expected. The biggest recent switch is his power as he has three home runs in his past six games. Lodise’s power numbers are by far the best part of his profile thus far, and he is hitting the ball hard enough to deserve the performance he has put up. He has a .163 ISO despite not having a non-HR extra base hit since April 22nd, and with a few more doubles mixed in his should see his numbers tick up a bit more even from here. After spending basically the entire Augusta recap yesterday ranting over Tate Southisene he responded with a poor game especially by his recent standards, striking out a couple of times and only getting in the hit column on an infield tapper in the ninth inning. He was also caught stealing and had an error in the field to round out what was unfortunately a tough day for him. To round out the recap of the group Luis Guanipa had a decent day at the plate with a line drive single in the first inning and a sharp line out in the second inning. Outside of the three strikeout performance last night Guanipa has just looked so consistently comfortable and explosive at the plate over the past couple of weeks, and his contact rate is quickly catching up to the norms of past seasons.
Derek Vartanian is steadily putting up impressive outings down in A ball, and though this wasn’t his best outing in regards to his command he was still able to hold the game together and put out one run over 5 2/3 innings. He had times where he struggled in this one to dial it in and keep his secondary pitches down in the strike zone, but he has shown consistently that his splitter is a pitch that hitters at this level aren’t equipped to handle. The pitch carries about a 15 mph gap to his fastball (arguably too much for higher level hitters) and he has made lefties at this level look foolish. Left handed hitters have no home runs, a strikeout rate of 32%, and an OPS of .599 against Vartanian and it comes down to his ability to get whiffs on that splitter. His fastball is good enough when his command is on, but the real question moving forward is how he and the Braves choose to develop his slider. Right now it’s a hard, short pitch that doesn’t have quite enough power or movement to get a ton of whiffs, and while that’s sufficient against A-ball competition he’ll really need a more effective breaking ball to crack into real prospect conversations. He’s had struggles against right handed batters and has had to rely on a fringe fastball to get outs against them. Still this is a guy who, despite being 22 and in Single-A, does not have a ton of high-level experience with only 43 innings between Campbell and Augusta after transferring from two years at the JuCo level. He’s going to need a bit of refinement and development but has loads of talent for a guy the Braves were able to land as an undrafted free agent. He has been in control of basically every start he has made so far and is scratching at getting some top 30 consideration.
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - MAY 13: Max Fried #54 of the New York Yankees pitches in the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on May 13, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Good morning everyone! I hope you’re all having a great week so far.
The Mariners couldn’t hang on during a tough game against the Astros last night, falling 4-3. Though Cal Raleigh may have been injured during the contest (we’ll likely learn more today), it was a very encouraging return for Bryce Miller. What did you think of the right-hander’s first start of the season?
In Mariners news…
In case you missed it, Logan Gilbert apparently talked Cal Raleigh into showering in his jersey before the game on Tuesday to break his hitting slump — and it worked!
Max Ellingsen started his preview of the Mariners 2026 MLB Draft strategy, with many player profiles and nuggets to come as we get closer. Join the comments of the linked article to tell Max which potential fits you want him to cover!
Over at Fangraphs, our very own Ryan Blake wrote about Ceddanne Rafaela’s arm strength and what it really means to have a good arm in baseball.
David Laruila at Fangraphs spoke to Yandy Díaz, who continues to be one of the sport’s most underrated hitters.
Adam Gopnik of The New Yorker provided a full review of A.M. Gittlitz’s new book Metropolitans: New York Baseball, Class Struggle, and the People’s Team.
TORONTO, CANADA - MAY 13: Myles Straw #3, Ernie Clement #22 and George Springer #4 of the Toronto Blue Jays embrace Daulton Varsho #5 after his walk-off grand slam in the tenth inning of their MLB game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Rogers Centre on May 13, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Cole Burston/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Wednesday can comfortably be filed away in the “bad” drawer for the Yankees. They mustered just a single hit in a shutout loss to the Orioles, a game in which Max Fried departed early with ever-troubling elbow soreness. The loss keeps them in the hole in the American League East, as they eagerly look to return to the form they took in the first month of the season.
But alas, the world goes on elsewhere, so here is a look around some exciting AL action on Wednesday.
Toronto Blue Jays (19-24) 5, Tampa Bay Rays (28-14) 3 (10 innings)
After a dramatic extra inning affair on Tuesday, which the Rays won, the Blue Jays got their revenge in similar fashion on Wednesday.
Both Griffin Jax for Tampa Bay and Dylan Cease for Toronto had the good stuff in this one. Through six innings of baseball in Toronto, neither the Jays nor the Rays had mustered much of anything, as this one remained scoreless into the later innings. Griffin Jax tossed five innings of shutout ball, while Cease got through seven strong, eventually allowing just a single run while striking out nine batters.
In the seventh, the Rays scored their lone run against Cease with an RBI single from Richie Palacios in the seventh. An inning later, the Jays tied it back up thanks to Kazuma Okamoto’s sacrifice fly. Both bullpens were able to keep things in check after that pair of runs, before the real fun started after the ninth.
In extras, Ben Williamson immediately got things moving for Tampa Bay, as his single plated the bonus runner in the tenth to give the Rays the lead. Williamson immediately stole second base, and was promptly scored thanks to another knock from Yandy Díaz for the all-important insurance run. Now, with a two run lead in hand, the Rays turned to Aaron Crooks to shut it down in the tenth.
The Jays would have none of it, however, as walks to Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Okamoto had the bases juiced after a quick first out in the inning. With the winning run now on base, Daulton Varsho decided to put an end to the game the easy way: by depositing a walk-off grand slam over the wall in left field.
The dramatic victory was about as fun as it gets for the Jays, and the Rays’ loss helps the Yankees keep within striking distance as well, as they remain two games back in the East.
Other Games:
New York Mets (17-25) 3, Detroit Tigers (19-24) 2 (10 innings): Speaking of extra innings, the Tigers took a tough loss at the hands of the Mets on Wednesday. After Framber Valdez held things in check, allowing just two runs in 6.2 innings, the offense was unable to put much together despite two quick runs in the first inning for Detroit. A Bo Bichette single tied the game up at two for the Mets, before Carson Benge’s clutch single in the 10th walked it off for New York.
Boston Red Sox (18-24) 3, Philadelphia Phillies (20-23) 1: Sonny Gray was excellent for the Red Sox at home as he tossed six innings, allowing just one run on two hits while racking up six strikeouts. After Boston and Philly matched each other with solo homers early on, it was Ceddanne Rafaela’s two-run bomb in the sixth that decided this one, as Boston hopes to continue climbing out of their early season hole.
Cleveland Guardians (24-21) 4, Los Angeles Angels (16-28) 2: The Guardians took an early lead in the first inning, thanks in part to Angel Martínez’s solo homer, and never looked back. Although the Angels threatened at times, Cleveland was able to stay in the driver’s seat from wire-to-wire, as starter Parker Messick worked 6.2 quality innings, giving up a pair of runs and tallying seven Ks.
Houston Astros (17-27) 4, Seattle Mariners (21-23) 3 (10 innings): More extra innings on Wednesday, as Houston pulled out a late win over the M’s in ten innings. Solo homers did much of the heavy lifting, as round-trippers from J.P. Crawford, Luke Raley, and Christian Walker helped push this game through nine innings all tied up. It was a timely single from Zach Cole that sent Astros fans home happy.
Texas Rangers (21-22) 6, Arizona Diamondbacks (20-22) 5: If all of the late dramatics were not enough, the Rangers put on a performance of their own against Arizona. Down 3-2 in the ninth, the D-Backs rallied to go up 5-3 thanks to huge hits from Nolan Arenado and Ildemaro Vargas. The Rangers battled back in their half of the ninth, as hits from Ezequiel Duran and Jake Burger helped to tie things up, and Danny Jansen’s single walked things off for the Rangers.
WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 03: Richard Lovelady #55 of the Washington Nationals celebrates after a 3-2 victory against the Milwaukee Brewers at Nationals Park on May 03, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Last night, the Washington Nationals showed just how exciting they can be. They erased a 5-0 first inning deficit, and came back to win 8-7 in extra innings. It was a crazy and emotional game where the boys rose to the occasion. They also wore their hearts on their sleeves, which I love to see, especially for a young team.
There were two instances of just raw emotion that I loved last night. The first one came in the 7th inning, when Richard Lovelady got out of a jam. Lovelady allowed a leadoff double to Elly De La Cruz and then Sal Stewart advanced him over to third on a ground out. The southpaw was in a tight spot, with the go ahead run 90 feet away with 1 out.
He walked the red hot JJ Bleday, and then induced a massive double play with Spencer Steer at the plate. Lovelady is always an expressive guy on the mound, but he went absolutely nuts after he got out of the inning. He was just yelling and screaming as he came off the mound. The only other time Lovelady was this fired up was after he got his first save against the Brewers.
Lovelady’s emotion on the mound is fun to watch, especially when you know his story. The lefty with the funny name has been the butt of jokes for a while, especially among Mets fans. He was the guy that David Stearns kept calling up and then DFA’ing. Lovelady was also not that great with the Mets. However, it is hard to perform when you keep bouncing around like that. Lovelady is just a 30 year old journeyman who is playing for his young son.
With that in mind, it is so awesome to see Lovelady go absolutely ballistic when he gets big outs. Since joining the Nats, Lovelady has a 0.84 ERA in 10 outings. He does not make it easy for himself most of the time, but so far, Lovelady is able to walk the tight rope and get out of the jams. When he does that, we get to see that primal emotion.
Richard Lovelady is always emotional, but Daylen Lile is not really someone I would have tabbed as a super expressive guy. Lile is not James Wood levels of stoic, but he usually is not the guy to flip the bat and make signals into the dugout.
Last night was different though, and a big part of why is due to family. Lile is from Louisville, Kentucky, which is close to Cincinnati. That means his family and friends are able to watch this series. With his loved ones watching on, Lile has been putting on a show. He already has 3 homers this series, including a massive go-ahead shot in the 10th inning last night.
After that homer, Lile pointed to the dugout and put his hand to his neck to signal the game was over. As the kids would say, Lile showed a lot of swag. With the Nats bullpen, the game over signal was a gamble from Lile, but he turned out to be right, his homer was the difference in the game.
I have never seen Lile that fired up before. We are seeing a different side of him in this series. Lile’s dad was also very fired up in the crowd, running down the stairs in pride when his boy hit that home run. Honestly, I would do the same thing if my hypothetical kid played in the big leagues and hit a homer in front of me.
Overall, this Nats team has been much more expressive on the field this year. Maybe there are times where it can go overboard, but for a young team, the emotion suits them well. Every time they win, this group is gaining more confidence. You can see the swagger building, whether it is Lile hitting a homer in extra innings, or CJ Abrams watching a grand slam fly.
I think Blake Butera’s culture allows for more emotion to be shown on the field. Davey Martinez did not prohibit celebrating, but he always preferred those celebrations to be in the dugout, and not on the field. He came from a different generation than Butera. I am not saying that one approach is better, it is just different.
For a veteran team, Martinez’s more old school approach may be a better fit. However, for a young team, I want them to feel free out there on the field. Maybe they are getting too loose sometimes on defense, but the emotion and excitement makes this team fun to watch.
This is the most fun I have had watching the Nats since that Kyle Schwarber led run in June of 2021. It just feels like this team is connected and having a ton of fun. In late 2023 and early 2024, we saw some of this, but it did not last in the end. Last season, it just did not look like the group was having fun.
That has changed this year. Of course the winning helps, but I think Blake Butera also has a part to play in this. Whether it is Richard Lovelady roaring after he gets a big zero, or Daylen Lile celebrating after hitting a huge homer in front of his family, the Nationals are expressing themselves. This team is having fun, and they are not afraid to show it.
The four-game series between the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers comes to a close on Thursday night in Chavez Ravine.
Landen Roupp aims to continue his strong season on the mound as he duels with Emmet Sheehan.
My Giants vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks for May 14 see Roupp leading San Francisco to a victory.
Who will win Giants vs Dodgers tonight: Giants moneyline (+150)
Landen Roupp has performed at the level of a Top-10 starting pitcher, sporting a 2.52 xERA and 2.51 FIP. He’s suppressed hard contact expertly, allowing zero barrels and ranking in the 98th percentile in hard-hit rate.
He gives the San Francisco Giants a starting pitching edge over Emmet Sheehan, who has lost a full tick on his fastball en route to a career-low 93 Stuff+.
The gap in hitting has narrowed lately. The Los Angeles Dodgers have plated three or fewer runs in 10 of their last 14 games, whereas the Giants have scored 5+ in five of their last eight.
COVERS INTEL: The Dodgers haven't been making quality contact lately, ranking 26th in hard-hit rate over the last 10 days.
Giants vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-115)
Both starting pitchers have a strong track record against their rival. Roupp has limited L.A.’s projected starting lineup to a .167 AVG and .593 OPS in 48 at-bats, while Sheehan has held SF’s bats to a .088 AVG and .250 OPS across 34 at-bats.
Dave Roberts can turn to a bullpen that leads the majors in FIP (3.12). That’s a valuable card to play in a series where six of the last seven meetings have resulted in an Under.
San Francisco has hit the Under in 10 of its last 15 games and will rely on Roupp limiting a slumping Dodgers lineup in this series finale.
JD Yonke's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 12-12, -3.84 units
Over/Under bets: 17-8, +8.64 units
Giants vs Dodgers odds
Moneyline: Giants +146 | Dodgers -174
Run line: Giants +1.5 | Dodgers -1.5
Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Giants vs Dodgers trend
The Dodgers are 1-3 in Emmet Sheehan’s last four starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Dodgers.
How to watch Giants vs Dodgers and game info
Location
Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Date
Thursday, May 14, 2026
First pitch
10:10 p.m. ET
TV
NBC Sports Bay Area, SportsNet LA
Giants starting pitcher
Landen Roupp (5-3, 3.09 ERA)
Dodgers starting pitcher
Emmet Sheehan (2-1, 4.79 ERA)
Giants vs Dodgers latest injuries
Giants vs Dodgers weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - MAY 13: Michael King #34 of the San Diego Padres pitches against the Milwaukee Brewers during the first inning at American Family Field on May 13, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It was a pitcher’s duel until the end. In what has become a regular occurrence for the San Diego Padres, they won it on Gavin Sheets’ two-out, three-run homer. It was a great way to make up for the fact that the Friars hadn’t done a thing to back up starter Michael King’s gem.
The San Diego pitching staff only gave up one run (mostly due to some batted-ball luck) while Milwaukee Brewers starter Jacob Misiorowski went seven scoreless innings. He came out to pitch the eighth but exited because of an apparent injury sustained while warming up.
It was a win the Padres needed — which seems to be an oft-used saying lately — and it was one they got. They forced the rubber match and could take the series this afternoon if Griffin Canning can rebound from his last start.
Taking the mound
Kyle Harrison (MIL) v. Griffin Canning (SD)
Harrison has had a great start to the season, pitching to a 2.41 ERA across 33 2/3 innings. The young lefty has impressed after being traded from the Boston Red Sox for Caleb Durbin. He’s racked up 41 strikeouts in that time but has a high 1.22 WHIP.
The southpaw had two of his rougher outings lately against the Washington Nationals and the New York Yankees, giving up one run and two runs respectively. Those were still great outings, but Harrison showed some issues with command in his most recent start, walking four Yankees batters across as many innings.
Canning’s last start was tough. He surrendered six runs to the St. Louis Cardinals in 4 1/3 innings on May 8. But that was all due to a tough-luck fifth inning that forced Canning out of the game. But he had a great debut, pitching five innings of one-run ball.
That recent outing is hurting his stats a bit, raising his ERA to 6.75 and his WHIP to 1.61 across 9 1/3 innings. If he can rebound against Milwaukee today, it would be a move in the right direction for Canning’s San Diego tenure.
Batter up!
Skipper Craig Stammen has spent this series in Milwaukee prioritizing offense in his lineup. He’s started Nick Castellanos in right field, meaning Fernando Tatis Jr. plays second base. Miguel Andujar and Gavin Sheets have been in the lineup consistently as well. That is likely to continue.
Jackson Merrill, CF
Fernando Tatis Jr., 2B
Manny Machado, 3B
Miguel Andujar, DH
Gavin Sheets, 1B
Xander Bogaerts, SS
Ramón Laureano, LF
Nick Castellanos, RF
Freddy Fermin, C
Bogaerts has been solid lately, and owns a .286 career average against Harrison. The same goes for Tatis whose career average is .444 with a 1.333 OPS.
But the real story is Castellanos, who owns a .600 average and 2.000 OPS against the southpaw. His bat could be a major addition to today’s series finale, but he may be out of the lineup instead given how much time he’s spent in right field lately.
Relief corps
Behind King’s great outing, Jeremiah Estrada, Jason Adam and Mason Miller locked down the final three-plus innings. They each pitched scoreless appearances, with Miller pitching his 13th save of the season, regaining the major-league lead.
That saved the majority of the ‘pen for today’s series finale, with Ron Marinaccio, Yuki Matsui, Adrian Morejon, Wandy Peralta and Bradgley Rodriguez available. Morejon and Rodriguez are the highest leverage options of the bunch. Should it be a close game when Canning departs, they’ll be the first two out.
May 13, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; San Diego Padres left fielder Gavin Sheets (30) hits a three run home run in the ninth inning as Milwaukee Brewers catcher William Contreras (24) looks on at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images | Benny Sieu-Imagn Images
Gavin Sheets may soon have a warrant issued for his arrest for stealing a game from the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on Wednesday. Sheets stepped to the plate in the top of the ninth inning with the San Diego Padres trailing, 1-0. There were two on and two out and Sheets was in an 0-1 hole when Brewers reliever Abner Uribe left an 88-mph slider over the plate. Sheets turned on the pitch and hit it just beyond the outfield wall in right-center field to put the Padres in front, 3-1. Mason Miller was called on in the bottom of the ninth inning and worked around a leadoff single to secure the two-run win for San Diego.
The Padres faced Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski who was dealing for Milwaukee. He completed seven innings without allowing a run. He only allowed four hits and recorded 10 strikeouts over the seven innings. San Diego sent its ace to the mound as well in Michael King. While not as dominant as his Milwaukee counterpart, King delivered another solid start, but he failed to get run support from his offense. If not for the heroic home run by Sheets, King would be looking at another loss with his offense spinning its wheels.
San Diego was outhit by Milwaukee 9-6, but the Padres needed just two of those hits in the ninth inning to get the win. Miguel Andujar hit a two out single into center field and Xander Bogaerts followed with a walk. That set the stage for Sheets to play her0 and as we have seen before this season, Sheets came through when his team needed it most.
The win by the Padres sets up the rubber match with the Brewers on Thursday. The game is set to start at 10:40 a.m.
Padres News:
Padres first-year manager Craig Stammen has shown throughout the season he is not afraid to mix up the lineup or ride the hot hand. Thomas Conroy of Gaslamp Ball believes Stammen is still just experimenting with his lineup on a daily basis.
Ethan Salas continues to perform at a high level in the San Diego minor league system. He homered again and seems to be fully recovered from the back issue that caused him to miss all but 10 games in the 2025 season.
A roster crunch is coming for San Diego and the biggest question around the team so far is who is leaving when Lucas Giolito makes his Padres debut. The expectation is Walker Buehler, German Marquex (IL) or Matt Waldron are released.
It's a getaway Thursday for some, but for us here, betting the MLB player prop markets and digging for dingers, and it's moving day as I'm looking to get into the black on the season once again.
Today's the day Fernando Tatis Jr. gets that home run monkey off his back, and the Athletics can turn Michael McGreevy's luck into a dinger today at Sutter Health Park.
And adding Bobby Witt Jr. to any home run card right now just makes sense, as he might be the AL MVP betting favorite by June.
These are my favorite home run props for Thursday, May 14.
UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
Player to hit a HR
Odds
Fernando Tatis Jr.
+525
Shea Langeliers
+350
Bobby Witt Jr.
+450
💲Today's HR parlay
+12891
Home run pick: Fernando Tatis Jr (+525)
The drought ends today for Fernando Tatis Jr., who somehow has yet to go deep this year.
He’s been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball to this point. His xwOBA ranks second on the team despite slugging just .294. He also owns the fastest bat speed on the roster, ranks inside the Top 50 in baseball in that metric, and sits 25th in BlastContact%. Even his attack angle is in a great spot.
It’s a real head-scratcher, and it ends today against lefty Kyle Harrison, whom he’s taken deep over nine career at-bats while hitting .444.
Harrison is a fly-ball pitcher who might be pitching above expectations this season and profiles as a strong target today for a homerless Tatis, who feels more than due with the underlying metrics backing it up.
Time: 1:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Brewers.TV, Padres.TV
Home run pick: Shea Langeliers (+350)
There aren’t a lot of +EV home run props popping up in the projections today, but Shea Langeliers is one of them with a fair price around +300 against Michael McGreevy at the homer-friendly confines of Sutter Health Park, where temperatures are expected around 80 degrees with slight winds blowing out.
THE BAT ranks Langeliers as the 15th-best home run hitter in baseball, and he’s launched four longballs over his last 28 at-bats.
McGreevy owns a .200 BABIP that simply isn’t sustainable, and his xERA sits nearly three full runs higher than his actual ERA.
He’s not a strikeout pitcher and will have to pitch to contact in a difficult environment. It’s a great home run hitter in a great home run park on a slate without many strong options.
Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
Where to watch: NBCSCA, Cardinals.TV
Home run pick: Bobby Witt Jr. (+450)
It’s tough to go wrong with Bobby Witt Jr. on the home run card.
The guy can do it the conventional way or the Little League way, and +450 is a great price on a tough board against lefty Anthony Kay, whom Witt has already seen this season. He’s also hitting lefties at the best rate of his career in 2026.
Witt owns a 191 wRC+ over the last two weeks, along with the seventh-best slugging percentage in baseball. He’s gone deep five times during that stretch, entering today on a two-game home run streak.
He’s one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now and continues to climb the AL MVP odds board. I’d play Witt down to +400 in this matchup.
Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Royals.TV, CHSN
Josh Inglis' 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 13-71, -3.94 units
Today’s HR parlay
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Bet Now +12891
Shea Langeliers
Bobby Witt Jr.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
COVERS INTEL: The Tigers are 
Chris Sale
Trevor Story
Kyle Schwarber
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Shea Langeliers
Bobby Witt Jr.