Category: MLB

Last night one of the Nationals top ranked prospects finally made his season debut after recovering from injury. After undergoing lat surgery late last season, Jarlin Susana has been out of commission recovering. However, he made his debut and looked as electric as ever. The big righty tossed two scoreless innings, allowing no hits, walking two and striking out two. Here is a look at those two punch outs.

When it comes to raw stuff, there might not be a better pitching prospect in all of minor league baseball than Susana. He has a triple digit heater as well as a slider that might be even better. Susana has the ability to manipulate the slider into a couple different shapes. Some are hard downers, while others look more like curveballs.

All of the shapes are absolutely filthy and gets loads of whiffs. Last night’s outing was short, but it was very encouraging. Lat surgeries can be tricky, and it can sometimes take a while for guys to regain their stuff. That does not appear to be an issue for Susana.

According to folks at the game, Susana was sitting 101-103 MPH with his heater. He utilized both a 4-seamer and a sinker. Apparently, he also showcased a new sweeper that was around 89 MPH with serious horizontal break. This is just nuclear grade stuff from the righty. Susana’s arm is just ridiculously special and seems to be too big to fail.

Even with shaky command, Susana’s stuff is so good that he is very likely to be an impactful big leaguer if healthy. However, a couple questions still remain. The first one is about his previously mentioned health. He has a pretty lengthy injury history at this point, with a couple elbow scares and that lat surgery. Susana has only thrown more than 100 innings once in his career. 

The other concern is his strike-throwing. With this being his first outing in nearly a year, some command rust was expected. However, he only threw 14 of his 28 pitches for strikes. That will need to improve as he keeps building up. Susana will never have pinpoint command, but all he needs to do is to be generally around the strike zone. 

These two questions give him some relief risk. With his stuff though, Susana would likely be one of the best closers in the game. His stuff, shaky injury record and lackluster command is similar to Mason Miller when he was coming through the Minor Leagues. If Susana does have to be a reliever, he could be that level of closer.

However, the Nats are going to let him start for now. It is the right move in my opinion. There was a time not too long ago where Jacob Misiorowski was a hard throwing arm with a lot of relief risk. In fact, entering the 2025 season, most people projected him as a bullpen arm. With some strike throwing improvements, the Miz has become the most dominant starter in the league.

Susana getting to that level is a long shot, but it is not impossible either. There are only a handful of pitching prospects in the game you can say that about. His peaks are the most impressive highs we have seen from a Nats pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg. The 22 year old remains a bit of a wild horse who still needs to be tamed though.

One outing that will always stick with me is what he did against the Tigers Double-A team last year. That team included the likes of Max Clark, Kevin McGonigle and Josue Briceno, all top 50 prospects at the time. Susana carved through that lineup like butter, striking out 13 in 5 innings of work. He touched 104 MPH and snapped off some of the nastiest sliders you will ever see.

It is easy to forget sometimes, but Susana also came in that Juan Soto deal. As if that deal was not already good enough, the Nats have another piece with insane upside from that deal. At the time, he was a raw 18 year old who recently signed out of the Dominican Republic. It has been a very slow burn, but Susana is back now, and is ready to take the MLB by storm when the time comes.

The command is shaky, but with his stuff, I have little doubt that Susana will be a productive big leaguer when he is on the mound. That last part is still a question mark, and seeing Susana stay healthy is massively important. The best way to improve command is getting a lot of reps, which Susana is going to need.

It will be interesting to see what the Nats do with him as the season comes to a close. Last night he rebabbed in Wilmington, but I am not sure what is next. A big league debut is highly unlikely, but there is a solid chance he gets up to Triple-A by the end of the season.

After the season, I think Susana is going to get some innings under his belt in the Arizona Fall League. Getting built up coming off the injury is a key step for him. He will have to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason, so a big league debut is on the horizon.

Assuming there is a season, I think 2027 will be the year where Susana announces himself to the world. His stuff and pure size makes him impossible to keep your eyes off of. Jarlin Susana is the most electric pitching prospect in the world, and it is great to see him back on the mound.

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

The New York Yankees won a low-scoring series opener on Tuesday, and they're -130 to add to their win total in Game 2.

Both starting pitchers have posted underwhelming results of late, but Will Warren's process is a lot more encouraging. 

That's a big reason I'm backing the pinstripes with my Mariners vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, Aug. 12.

Who will win Mariners vs Yankees today: New York Yankees (-130)

Will Warren and Bryce Miller have posted very similar results over the past month. The difference is how they arrived at them.

Warren has been incredibly unlucky, with a strong 2.58 xFIP and 48.9% ground-ball rate wiped out by an unsustainably high .389 BABIP and nearly 40% of baserunners scoring.

Miller owns a 5.24 xFIP over the same time while posting a 50% fly-ball rate and allowing well over two homers per nine.

Both offenses are struggling, so I want to be on the side of the better pitching. 

Back the New York Yankees to -140.

COVERS INTEL: Among today's starters, Miller ranks 28th in xFIP the past month.

Mariners vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-105)

Warren has pitched much better than his results indicate. The tide will turn sooner rather than later, and a matchup with the Seattle Mariners is the perfect time.

They are toothless against righties, posting a .274 wOBA (28th) and 43.1 GB% (24th) the last 30 days.

The Yankees have hit for more power but rank dead last with a .194 batting average over the same span.

While they may capitalize on Miller’s recent struggles at keeping the ball in the park, there’s unlikely to be much traffic on the basepaths.

I make the total 7.8 and would bet to -125.

Mariners vs Yankees home run prediction: Ben Rice (+235)

Miller’s Achilles' heel is preventing the home run, ranking in the 27th percentile in HR/9.

Ben Rice has feasted on such opponents all year long. Isolating starters in the 30th or lower, Rice has left the park in nine of 22 games — and six of 13 when facing a righty.

Miller throws the fastball 42% of the time, and Rice is sporting a ridiculous .597 ISO against that pitch.

This is a really nice spot for Rice to come back to life at the plate.

I’d back Rice to +200.

Mariners vs Yankees weather

The conditions will provide a boost to hitters as temperatures are expected to reach the 80s with slight winds blowing west.

Mariners vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Mariners +110 | Yankees -130
• Run line: Mariners +1.5 (-175) | Yankees -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)

Mariners vs Yankees trend

New York has hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games (+11.60 units, 24% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Yankees.

How to watch Mariners vs Yankees and game info

Mariners vs Yankees latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

There was no comeback or late-game heroics needed by the San Diego Padres against the Milwaukee Brewers in the second game of their three-game series because the Padres exploded for 11 runs on 17 hits in an 11-2 win over the Brewers at Petco Park on Tuesday night. San Diego also secured a series win after winning the first two games against Milwaukee.

The Padres got on the board early, scoring five runs in the bottom of the second inning off Brewers starter Kyle Harrison. The big blow came off the bat of Luis Rengifo who hit a grand slam home run to left field to give San Diego a 5-0 lead. That was all the support Padres starter Walker Buehler would need as the veteran right-hander worked through six innings, allowing one run on three hits with two walks and five strikeouts.

San Diego continued to add to its run total after Buehler allowed a run in the top of the third to make the score, 5-1. Fernando Tatis Jr. connected on a solo home run to right field in the bottom of the fourth and Luis Campusano connected on a two-run home run in the bottom of the fifth to make the score, 8-1. The Padres were not done and added three more runs to their total in the bottom of the sixth inning to take a commanding 11-1 lead.

The Brewers were able to scratch another run across in the top of the ninth inning against Griffin Canning, but it was too little too late as the home team went on to a nine-run win. This was a big win for the Padres as both the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Philadelphia Phillies both lost, allowing San Diego to force a three-way tie for the last two National League Wild Card positions.

The Padres will go for the series sweep today at 1:10 p.m.

Padres News:

• Ethan Salas has not been with the Triple-A El Paso Chihuahuas for long, but he is already making his presence felt as he pushes for a callup.

• The Padres and Brewers are both trying to get to the postseason and Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune says the clubs are on different paths en route to that goal.

• According to Dennis Lin of The Athletic, MLB owners are supposed to vote Monday to approve new ownership of the Padres.

• Jackson Merrill has returned to form and his success in the second half has resulted in team success.

Baseball News:

• Blake Snell recorded 10 strikeouts in his return to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• The Chicago Cubs stayed hot with another win over the Washington Nationals.

• The Cincinnati Reds knocked off the Chicago White Sox.

• The Atlanta Braves got a shutout win over the New York Mets.

• Andre Pallante pitched the St. Louis Cardinals to a 2-0 win over the Philadelphia Phillies.

Bobby Miller encountered some problems in his second appearance back from injury in Triple-A, and the Drillers overcame a blown save to beat the Travelers in walk-off fashion.

Player of the day

When the most impressive game is also the one with the biggest impact, the choice is easy, and such was the case for Nico Perez, who delivered one of his finest performances of the season. The Loons’ second baseman left the yard twice, both of them two-run shots in a 6-3 win.

What adds to the surprise of this game is that it’s not as if power has been a major part of Perez’s game. After all, he came into this game yesterday with just 13 long balls in 159 games across his minor league career.

Triple-A Oklahoma City

Other than Ronan Kopp—who had to maneuver his way through three baserunners to complete one scoreless frame—every other Comets pitcher that stepped on the mound allowed at least a run as the Comets wasted an early lead in a blowout loss 13-7.

One of those pitchers who had a tough time was Bobby Miller, allowing three runs and striking out one in a couple of innings of work. The loss, though, went to Ryder Ryan, allowing two more runs after Miller. Lastly, the worst performance that put this game to bed was from Griff McGarry, responsible for five runs without recording an out.

In most games, the Comets’ seven runs would’ve been enough with homers from Hyeseong Kim, Alex Freeland, and Zach Ehrhard, but not when the staff lets in 13. Having hit nine homers in June, Ehrhard had been dealing with a bit of a power drought, without leaving the yard in his last 17 games.

Double-A Tulsa

Outhomering the opposition three to zero, the Drillers still had to grind out a one-run win in a high-scoring game since all of their long balls were solo shots. Leadoff hitter Taylor Young, first baseman Joe Veltrano, and shortstop Eljah Hainline were the ones to leave the yard, which is somewhat surprising given that the trio combined has only 20 homers this season.

Following a four-run rally from the Travelers in the eighth, the game was tied at seven heading into extras. That’s when Hainline sent everyone home with a force-out walk-off on a bouncing ball down the third base line that allowed no attempt at a play at the plate.

High-A Great Lakes

Hitting cleanup for a second baseman isn’t a common occurrence. Nico Perez justified his spot there, accumulating four RBI to help the Loons erase an early three-run deficit to beat the Cubs at home in a battle of first-place teams.

Vastly improving on his success rate from a year ago, Eduardo Quintero stole a couple of bags in a 2-for-4 performance, now with 39 on the season, having been caught just six times. Recently promoted to High-A, Mairo Martinus was one of four Loons players with multiple hits, including an RBI.

Single-A Ontario

Starter Cam Leiter did his part with three scoreless frames, but the bullpen didn’t come close to matching that level of performance—homers allowed by Josehp Marte and Javier Bartolazzi were enough to surrender the game in a 5-1 defeat with little to no production from the offense to capitalize on three errors from the Quakes defense.

When Joendry Vargas was stranded at third in the first following a triple—his sixth of the season—it was a preview of the type of game the Tower Buzzers would have, whose only RBI came from the catcher Francisco Espinoza. The king of singles in Single-A, Espinoza has 22 hits in 20 games for Ontario, 19 of them singles.

Transactions

The Dodgers optioned left-handed pitcher Charlie Barnes to the Oklahoma City Comets.

Tuesday’s scores

• Oklahoma City 7, Albuquerque 13
• Tulsa 8, Arkansas 7
• Great Lakes 6, South Bend 3
• Rancho Cucamonga 5, Ontario 1

Wednesday’s schedule

• 4:05 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Jacob Frost) vs. South Bend (Braylon Myers)
• 4:35 p.m. PT: Oklahoma City (Emmet Sheehan) vs. Albuquerque (TBD)
• 5:00 p.m. PT: Tulsa (Adam Serwinowski) vs. Arkansas (Ryan Hawks)
• 6:30 p.m. PT: Ontario (Luis Carias) at Rancho Cucamonga (Trey Gregory-Alford)

Ahead of the trade deadline, the Metsinformed teams that onlyJuan Soto,Carson Benge,A.J. Ewing, Christian Scott, andNolan McLean were off-limits. Left off that list was Francisco Lindor, which naturally led to frenzied speculation regarding his future in Queens.

Shortly before that, owner Steve Cohen had discussed the perceived Lindor-Soto feud that existed in 2025, saying that it was "last year's story" and that he didn't see either player "going anywhere."

But soon after the Mets made their deadline strategy known, David Stearns danced around a question about Lindor's future.

"I'm not going to rule out or in any specific player on anything," Stearns said on July 24. "I don't think that's wise for me to do. What I will say is, we've got a group of young players and we've got some potential Hall-of-Famers, future Hall-of-Famers, that we view as our core. We expect them to be our core."

With the deadline in the rearview and Lindor still a Met, the shortstop discussed his future on Tuesday.

"The plan is to be here for my contract," Lindor told Mike Puma of The New York Post. "When I signed up here, it was to be in the good times and bad times and to win."

Lindor, 32, is in the fifth year of a 10-year, $341 million extension he signed before the 2021 season. And as someone who has 10-and-5 rights, he has the power to refuse any potential trade. 

While speaking with The Post, Lindor also weighed in on his faith in Stearns and the overall direction of the franchise.

"We have the right guys," he said. "Stearns is the right guy. That is No. 1. We have one of the best owners in sports history, because [Cohen] is going to go always with the energy that needs to be put into the team. When you are in a big market there is not such a thing as rebuilding. There is a little bit of transition, that is it. You can’t afford to rebuild in big markets, so I think we are working toward the right place. We have not taken a step backwards."

As he talked about the Mets' future, Lindor name-dropped some of the prospects who were acquired at the deadline -- including infielder Jefferson Rojas, who was acquired from the Cubs in the deal that sent Clay Holmes and Tyrone Taylor to Chicago, and should make his debut at some point during the 2027 season.

Throughout the season, Stearns has been clear that the Mets intend to retool ahead of next season with an eye on an immediate return to contention.

That will almost certainly be easier to accomplish if Lindor remains in the fold.

Lindor missed about two months earlier this season due to a serious calf injury, but has been terrific since returning from the IL on June 24.

In 174 plate appearances over 40 games since being activated, Lindor is hitting .253/.339/.487 (.826 OPS) with nine homers, five doubles, two triples, 22 runs scored, and 25 RBI.

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

The Milwaukee Brewers visit the San Diego Padres this afternoon as a -113 moneyline favorite at Petco Park, with first pitch set for 4:10 p.m. ET. 

San Diego is flourishing offensively, and my Brewers vs. Padres predictions are eyeing them to jump on Dustin May in just his second start with Milwaukee. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, Aug. 12. 

Who will win Brewers vs Padres today: Padres (+105)

The San Diego Padres send Robbie Ray to the mound for just his second outing since the trade. He struggled in his debut, allowing four earned runs, but the left-hander was sharp before that, posting a 2.08 FIP across his previous three starts.

The bigger focus is the Milwaukee Brewers' issues against southpaws. The Brewers own a 92 wRC+ versus lefties compared to a 108 mark against righties, and they also have a 92 wRC+ over the last week.

Dustin May allowed two earned runs in his Milwaukee debut, but he carried a 4.79 xERA over his previous three appearances. He now faces a Padres lineup with a 125 wRC+ over its last seven games.

I’ll back San Diego down to +100.

COVERS INTEL: The Padres have surged offensively over the last month, posting a 128 wRC+ compared to their 98 season mark. That 30-point jump makes San Diego a difficult lineup to fade right now.

Brewers vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-121)

This total sits at 8.5, and I lean Under. San Diego is swinging it well with a .204 ISO over the last week, but Milwaukee has shown less power, posting just a .147 ISO during that span.

The bullpen profiles also point toward a lower-scoring finish. San Diego’s relief corps has been elite, owning a 2.26 FIP over its last 26.2 innings while allowing just 0.34 HR/9. Milwaukee’s bullpen has also been sharp with a 2.84 FIP over the last week and the same 0.34 HR/9 allowed.

The late-inning matchup is the separator here, and both relief corps are in strong enough form to keep this total contained.

I’ll play this pick up to -130.

Brewers vs Padres home run prediction: Fernando Tatis Jr (+474)

Fernando Tatis Jr.’s power is finally waking up. The Padres star has clubbed four home runs in his last seven games while posting a massive .500 ISO.

His barrel rate sits at 26.9% over the last week, and his launch angle is up to 22.8 degrees during that span. In fact, 53.8% of his contact lately has been in the air. While May and the Brewers’ bullpen are not especially prone to the long ball right now, Tatis’ red-hot batted-ball profile is impossible to ignore.

Plus, even though May hasn’t had many homer issues lately, he is allowing 1.31 HR/9 on the road this season.

Play this pick down to +400.

Brewers vs Padres weather

Weather at Petco Park looks very stable today, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures sitting at 74 degrees throughout the afternoon. Winds are moderate around 9 mph, humidity is high, and rain chances are 0%. Overall, conditions look clean and mostly neutral, with no real delay risk.

Brewers vs Padres odds

• Moneyline: Brewers -113 | Padres +108
• Run line: Brewers -1.5 (+144) | Padres +1.5 (-156)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+113) | Under 8.5 (-117)

Brewers vs Padres trend

The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 25 games at home (+9.95 Units / 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Padres.

How to watch Brewers vs Padres and game info

Brewers vs Padres latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

For Hickory, Louis Marinaro struck out two and walked one in 1.2 scoreless innings. Aneudis Mejia struck out three in 1.1 scoreless innings. Michael Trausch struck out one and walked one in a shutout inning.

Marco Argudin homered. Noah Franklin had a hit and a walk.

Hickory box score

Hub City’s game got suspended in the third inning with Hub City down 5-0.

Joey Danielson struck out the side in an inning for Frisco. Josh Trentadue allowed a run in an inning of work, walking one. Thomas Ireland struck out two and walked one in two shutout innings.

Frisco box score

For Round Rock, Ryan Lobus struck out three in 1.1 scoreless innings. Gavin Collyer struck out two in an inning of work, allowing one run. Michel Otanez walked one in a scoreless inning. Wilian Bormie walked two and struck out one while allowing a run in an inning of work.

Rehabbing Danny Jansen was 1 for 2 and caught five innings. Cody Freeman doubled and walked. John Taylor was 2 for 5 with a stolen base. Logan O’Hoppe was 2 for 4 with a double and a homer. Aaron Zavala homered. Alejandro Osuna had a hit and a walk.

Round Rock box score

DSL Rangers Red box score

DSL Rangers Blue box score

Angels 3, Rangers 2

• I regret to inform you that there is no winning streak.
• Kind of a weird game, really.
• Cody Bradford made his second start of the year, and though he was on a pitch limit, he still went seven innings.
• How, you may ask? Efficiency. Bradford needed just 75 pitches to get through those seven innings. He faced 26 batters in all, which meant he averaged fewer than three pitches per batter.
• Not surprisingly, given that, he walked only one batter and struck out only one batter.
• Bradford wasn’t missing bats in this outing — he got just four swings and misses. He also gave up a lot of loud contact, giving up 9 hard hit balls out of the 23 balls in play.
• Yet he just gave up five hits, and you would think that five hits and a walk (and, yeah, a hit by pitch thrown in) would mean little in the way of scoring by Anaheim.
• Its that whole sequencing thing, though. Three hits and the hit by pitch all came in the third inning, resulting in three runs.
• One of the three hits was a double, and it came last, which was bad from a sequencing standpoint as well, at least if you were trying to keep runs off the board.
• If there was a double first, then a couple of singles, then a hit by pitch, then you probably are ending the inning with just one run scoring.
• Such is the game of baseball.
• Joc Pederson homered to lead off the game and walked three times, but Wyatt Langford and Corey Seager, hitting in the 2 and 3 spots, were each 0 for 4, so the walks didn’t lead to anything.
• Jarred Kelenic, back in the majors in place of Jonah Bride, who I hope enjoyed his two days in the majors, had a pinch hit RBI single. It was the one hit the Rangers had with runners in scoring position.
• It was a winnable game that the Rangers didn’t win. The Astros lost, so you can either be relieved that the Rangers didn’t lose any ground, or mad that they didn’t move into first place.
• That’s up to you, which way you go with that. I am not going to tell you how to live your life.
• Cody Bradford topped out at 89.8 mph with his fastball, averaging 88.3 mph. Chase Silseth hit 96.5 mph with his fastball.
• Ezequiel Duran had a 105.5 mph single. Brandon Nimmo had a 105.1 mph single and a 100.9 mph single. Joc Pederson had a 104.8 mph homer. Justin Foscue ended the game with a 103.0 mph fly out. Corey Seager had a 101.0 mph fly out.
• Moving on. Another game ahead. Its a marathon, not a sprint.

Tomorrow, the Phillies take to the cornfield in Iowa for the Field of Dreams game. If you build it, they will come (and if you make it available via streaming, they will watch). But tonight, there’s no Phillies baseball to watch; their game is an afternoon affair. That gives you some free time. And what better way to use it than to watch a baseball movie? Perhaps you’ll choose Field of Dreams. Or perhaps another baseball flick is more to your tastes. If you need a reminder about the proper place for crying in baseball (hint: there isn’t one), A League of Their Own will do nicely. Perhaps the quotable patter of Moneyball? If you’d like to see Kevin Costner, but want something a little less sentimental, Bull Durham is never a bad idea.

Today’s question is: what’s your favorite baseball movie?

One of the more fascinating parts of statistics is that they give us the opportunity to prove or disprove the veracity of what we are seeing and experiencing. Games like last night come immediately to the forefront. The Astros load the bases twice in the first two innings with a combined one out and come up with only one run. It often feels like the Astros leave a small village on base. That speaks to offensive efficiency and we have covered that ground before.

It wouldn’t surprise anyone to see that the Astros efficiency rating has gone up this year as they have scored more runs and generally had more offensive success. Their success has also been impressive relative to the rest of the American League. Obviously, most of the function of run scoring is a representation of how many base runners you have. We have to track that to track offensive efficiency. However, over the course of a full season, offensive efficiency (or lack thereof) can account for up to five wins worth of runs.

What we do in this piece is break down one piece of efficiency as we try to determine which factors correlate with offensive efficiency most strongly. Since it has been awhile since we have seen these numbers a quick tutorial is in order. You simply add up hits, walks, and hit by pitches and divide total runs into that. That gives you a number that looks like an OBP. That is a team’s offensive efficiency.

The other good thing about looking at numbers is that there is always more than one way to interpret them. The Astros are third in runs scored and fourth in offensive efficiency in the American League. That means they are doing well right? Well, there is always another way of looking at the numbers. The Astros are second in AL in total base runners, so in theory they should be second in runs scored.

They trail the White Sox by four total runs, so it isn’t like they are lagging by a ton. In the sabermetric world it might be equivalent to a win. Of course, we know how important one additional win and one fewer loss is at this point of the season. That was also true last season when the team’s offensive efficiency numbers were seriously lagging.

However, in this piece we are going to make one minor adjustment to the numbers above. We are simply going to remove home runs. In essence, that means we remove home runs from both the total base runners category and runs scored categories. This will give us a better feel of what the club does with runners on base and we should see an impact on efficiency. If it is a dramatic impact then we probably have a pretty strong correlation with offensive efficiency.

The first thing I should do is clean up a little in how we set up the table. I listed the teams in the same order on purpose. It highlights the dramatic impact that home runs can have on offensive efficiency. The Astros are second in the American League in home runs. Sure, that could mostly be Yordan, but it is still the single biggest difference between the offense this season and last season. We are currently on pace to fly by 200 home runs for the season.

Notice how dramatically these numbers fell across the board. The Astros go from fourth in offensive efficiency to eighth when we account for home runs. One of the first rules in social science is that we don’t ever attribute causation. Home runs don’t cause efficiency overall. However, it is the most efficient way to produce a run in baseball. So, it shouldn’t be a surprise that we see such dramatic results when accounting for home runs.

That leaves us with two immediate thoughts. First, we can look at the efficiency of this offense as compared to last season by removing home runs. Is this team really any better than they were a year at hitting in the clutch? Secondly, seeing these numbers out in the open can also impact how teams are built. If we know that home runs are a primary driver of efficiency we can prioritize getting home runs on offense and preventing home runs on defense.

So, this team is legitimately more clutch than they were a season ago. We can give a hat tip to these hitting coaches in addition to Yordan Alvarez. It might not seem like much, but if the Astros had the same efficiency last season independent of home runs they would have scored an addition 21 runs. That is equivalent to two wins and that would have gotten them to October.

We should remember this the next time we complain about excessive base runners being left on base. This team is right around where it should be in terms of getting runs across the pay station. They could always be more efficient, but as we saw last season, they could easily be less efficient. In the meantime, if we ever wonder why power is so prioritized then this is one very significant reason why.

“The 2026 AL is a mess” has basically been an evergreen statement from the time the season started. Looking at the standings right now, the Yankees and Red Sox have fine enough, playoff team-worthy records. And then, you have five teams separated by 2.5 games for the last AL playoff spot… with the 60-60 Rangers leading the pack. Woof.

Projections-wise, it might seem fairly close. The Rangers are projected to be the sixth-best team in the AL in terms of finishing record, with 82ish wins. But, even with about seven weeks of regular season play remaining, the actual playoff entrant isn’t going to be the team that rolls their expected value, but probably the team that hits a higher-percentile outcome. There’s gotta be at least one of those in this quintet, right? (Also, this quintet doesn’t involve the Mariners, who have the roster talent to make a charge, even if they’re further back than 2.5 games.)

On the flip side, you also have to consider that the Astros lead the AL West at just 61-60. So, if, say, the Rangers are the team that “roll high” for the rest of the year, it’s possible that they take not the last Wild Card spot, but the AL West — and if none of the other teams do, maybe that sixth spot really does go to an 81-win team.

It’s kind of sad that this is what it’s come down to, but welcome to the expanded playoff field and the roster malaise era. One hopes that it’s not here to stay, but…

Plenty of fans have given up on the 2026 Orioles, but the other American League wild card contenders have done their best to keep hope alive. There are only a few good teams in the American League, and they all happen to play baseball in the AL East. The Orioles are not one of those teams.

The Orioles ended last night four games below .500 and no less than three games back from the third Wild Card. It’s difficult to believe that this team is even somewhat close to .500. It feels like they lose almost every night. The whiplash of giving up on the team, only to get sucked back in by the obtainable wild card spot, is enough to drive any fan crazy. Losing Adley Rutschman, watching Gunnar Henderson struggle, and getting dominated by Dean Kremer is enough to make any fan start focusing more on the NFL or college football.

I want to look on the bright side, but I can’t recycle the same narrative about this team’s postseason chances. We’ve officially reached the point of the season when I’m dreaming on the potential of fringe relievers. August of 2019 called, and they want their storylines back.

Enter Cam Sanders. Sanders is a 29-year-old with 12 major league games under his belt. The right-hander was drafted in the 12th round by the Chicago Cubs all the way back in 2018. He signed with Pittsburgh as a minor-league free agent before last season and worked his way up from Double-A Altoona to the majors. He made six MLB appearances and allowed six earned runs in 2025.

Sanders pitched to a 2.96 over 22 appearances at Triple-A Indianapolis this season, but he failed to break through with the Bucs. Sanders made nine appearances for the Pirates and allowed nine earned runs. He was designated for assignment in early July and traded to Baltimore for cash considerations a few days later.

Baltimore identified Sanders as a classic high strikeout/high walk reliever. His high 90s fastball and impressive slider led to plenty of whiffs, but Sanders struggled to locate pitches consistently. The Pirates bullpen woes have been a big story in Pittsburgh, but Sanders couldn’t hang with former Oriole Gregory Soto and Dennis Santana. Sanders still holds two minor-league options, but the Pirates declined to keep him on the 40-man roster.

The Orioles activated Sanders and immediately threw him to the fire. Sanders responded by picking up his first MLB win and first big league save in his first two appearances. Sanders recorded a pair of outs in Baltimore’s 3-2 win over Houston and closed out a wild 4-2 win in 11 innings the next day. His reward? The Orioles optioned Sanders and recalled third catcher Sam Huff.

Sanders had pitched on consecutive days, and the Orioles needed another catcher on the roster. The move said less about Sanders and more about the current state of the team. The Birds would summon Sanders back to Baltimore less than one month later.

The Birds recalled Sanders prior to the Minnesota series and used him right away. Trevor Rogers did not have his best stuff, and Craig Albernaz pulled the starter after only four innings. Sanders entered and kept the Orioles in the game with two scoreless innings. He allowed one hit, struck out one, and did not walk a batter. Sanders did not issue a walk in any of his three appearances for the Orioles.

Sanders averages just over 96 MPH with his four-seam fastball and sinker. His slider checks in just under 87 MPH. Opponents have hit just .143 off the fastball and .160 off his slider this season, but Sanders has yet to establish a third pitch. The sinker took the place of his sweeper from last year, and he’s mixed in a changeup against lefties, but neither pitch has yielded much success. There’s a place for relievers that only possess two legitimate pitches, but the Orioles would love to see Sanders develop a more reliable third option.

The Orioles kept Sanders around after he tossed two innings on Monday, and the team should give him an extended look down the stretch. Sanders joins a group of optionable relievers beyond this season that includes Anthony Nunez, Alex Hoppe, Yaramil Hiraldo, and Grant Wolfram. Yennier Cano will carry an option into 2027, but the team certainly hopes that the 32-year-old will remain with the big league club.

Cano’s age is a reminder that it can take relievers a few years to find their footing. Cano made it to the All-Star game during his rookie year at age 29. Sanders will turn 30 in December, but there’s little doubt that his best baseball is still ahead.

The Cubs fell behind — again. And came from behind — again. This game was the sixth of the team’s last seven wins in which the opponent scored first.

It is, I suppose, not the recommended way to win games, but the Cubs wound up on top, defeating the Nationals 8-6 in the first of a three-game series, and in the end, isn’t that what matters?

Here’s how it all went down.

Shōta Imanaga served up a two-run homer to CJ Abrams in the first inning. No shame in that, really; it was Abrams’ 29th homer of the year and while he’s not going to win the MVP award, he’ll get a lot of downballot votes.

The Cubs cut one run off that deficit in the top of the second. Alex Bregman led off with a walk and went to third on a single by Ian Happ.

Nico Hoerner’s sac fly scored Bregman [VIDEO].

In the bottom of the second, Imanaga served up another homer, this one to Jacob Young. Uh-oh, you were probably thinking. Here we go again.

The Cubs got that run right back in the top of the third, and this is where Pete Crow-Armstrong hit a ball halfway to Maryland.

Here’s his 432-foot homer off the facing of the third deck at Nationals Park [VIDEO].

That ball was absolutely demolished [VIDEO].

So it’s 3-2 heading to the fourth, and that’s when the Cubs took the lead without the benefit of a long ball. Happ led off with a walk and Hoerner doubled, with Happ stopping at third.

Michael Conforto’s sac fly tied the game at 3 [VIDEO].

Hoerner took third on that play and scored on this infield grounder by Carson Kelly [VIDEO].

That gave the Cubs the lead. Dansby Swanson was hit by a pitch, moving Kelly to second. PCA struck out, but Seiya Suzuki’s double scored Kelly to make it 5-3 [VIDEO].

The Cubs extended the lead to 6-3 in the fifth. They loaded the bases on singles by Bregman and Hoerner and a walk by Conforto. One out later, Swanson walked, scoring Bregman [VIDEO].

Imanaga, though, could not make it through the bottom of the fifth. The Nats’ third homer of the night off Imanaga, by Dylan Crews, made it 6-4 and ended Shōta’s evening after 86 pitches. He hadn’t allowed more than two home runs in a game since June 24 against the Mets (and the Cubs won that game, too). Hopefully this was just a one-off rough outing for Imanaga.

Here’s more on Imanaga’s evening from BCB’s JohnW53:

This was the 11th of Imanaga’s 78 career start in which he has allowed at least three home runs: two in 204, four last year and five this year.

He gave up four once, on June 4, at home vs. the Athletics.

His 11 are tied with Ferguson Jenkins for the second most such games in a career by a Cub. Warren Hacker had 12 in 1950-56.

Two others reached double digits: Kyle Hendricks and Steve Trachsel, both with 10. Frank Castillo and Bill Hands are next, with 8 apiece.

Imanaga did not walk a batter. It was his fifth start with no walks, most among Cubs in starts of at least three innings. Javier Assad has three; Matthew Boyd, David Peterson and Colin Rea, two; and Ben Brown, Edward Cabrera and Jameson Taillon, one, for a total of 17 in 120 games — about one of every seven.

Ryan Rolison finished off the fifth without incident and then the Cubs extended the lead in the sixth. With two out, Bregman smacked his 13th home run of the year [VIDEO].

Rolison threw a scoreless sixth and Trent Thornton had a 1-2-3 seventh and so the game remained 7-4 Cubs until the top of the eighth. That’s when Suzuki went deep, his 20th [VIDEO].

More on the Cubs’ three-homer game from John:

This was the Cubs’ 15th game of the season with at least three home runs.

They had 28 by the end of last year, after having had only 13 in all of 2024. They had 17 in 2023, 13 in 2022 and 26 in 2021.

Their record is 39, in 2019, followed by 38, in 2004, and 29 in 1987 and 2017.

Ryan Zeferjahn, who’d been pretty good in his first three Cubs appearances, struggled in this one. A leadoff walk helped lead to a pair of runs, one of which scored when this apparent catch by Happ was ruled a trap on review [VIDEO].

And it could have been worse if not for this fine running catch by Suzuki [VIDEO].

Suzuki’s defense has been vastly improved this year. It’s the first time in his five-year MLB career that he’s posted positive defensive bWAR. He’s probably not a Gold Glover, but could be one of the “finalists.”

That left it a two-run game, and Jacob Webb had to come on to get the last out of the eighth. He did so, and then retired the Nats without further incident in the ninth. Here’s the final out [VIDEO].

Here are some postgame comments from Craig Counsell [VIDEO].

The win, combined with the Brewers’ second loss in a row in San Diego, moved the Cubs to within four games of first place in the NL Central. And by winning while the Phillies lost, the Padres moved into Wild Card position, tied with the Diamondbacks, 6.5 games behind the Cubs.

Wednesday evening, David Peterson gets the start for the Cubs. As for the Nats, you’ll note that Suzuki’s home run was hit off of Miles Mikolas, who originally was listed to start Wednesday’s game. Instead, the Nats will have left-hander Jackson Kent, their fourth-round pick in 2024, make his MLB debut. And Tuesday’s game might be it for Mikolas:

Game time Wednesday is again 5:45 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network.

Chances are, if you’re even a casual White Sox fan, you share the incredible surprise at the team’s record. If you’re somewhat algorithm inclined, you may be aware that both FanGraphs and PECOTA now predict they’ll end the season with an 82-80 record, barely better than .500. But, since we’re talking about the AL Central, that’s enough to squeak by and win the division.

If you like a little more in the way of numbers, thanks to the barrage of shilling for sports books on every trivial event in order to promote problem gambling that the announcing staff does, you’re probably aware that the White Sox are eighth in the majors in runs scored per game, 4.76, and a hair better than average in runs allowed at 4.44.

Sixth in homers? You knew that. Only 22nd in batting average, but dead in the middle in on-base percentage and a skosh better than average in OPS? You knew all that.

The pitching staff is 11th worst in walks while the batters are average? The pitchers are 18th in strikeouts while batters have K’ed the sixth-most? Of course, you knew all that.

But, if we may, let us venture into territory seldom reviewed by anyone but stats addicts and retirees or the idle rich, who have lots of time on their hands, enough time to scroll to the right or down to a special category at Baseball-Reference.

First, the pitchers

ERA 4.11, 14th. check. FIP 4.20, 18th. Check.

Now for the stuff you may not have noticed:

White Sox pitchers are second in MLB in hitting batters, with 72, just one behind the Astros. And that’s even though they don’t get to add to the bruises on Sam Antonacci’s body, which has been whacked 15 times to lead the AL (though far behind Cardinal All-Star catcher/DH Iván Herrera, who has been plunked 25 times).

The White Sox lead the majors in balks with eight, though the lead is only one, so any team could take the crown. No individual pitcher has been charged with more than two, so it has been a team effort.

They also lead the majors in wild pitches, with 51. That’s just one more than the Cardinals, though double the MLB average. Of course, you have to give Sox catchers credit for failing to block pitches in the dirt that never should have gotten by, but are still blamed on the pitcher.

As for batted balls, Sox pitchers allow a very slightly worse-than-average 88.3 mph exit velocity (average is 88.1), and a ninth-worst hard-hit rate of 39.8%. They’re fifth-worst at getting ground balls, at 39%, largely because they surrender a ton of line drives, 25%, second-worst in the big leagues.

Given that line-drive rate, the staff has done well to be middling in ERA, helped by allowing a better-than-average 127 homers (average is 137) despite The Rate as home park.

And now the hitters

Peripheral stuff has helped the White Sox offense almost as much as all those dingers.

They hit very few line drives, by far the lowest liner rate in the majors. That should be a big negative, especially because they’re average in ground ball rate. But somehow despite being average in grounders, the Sox are the very best at staying out of double plays, by far, with 52 — barely half the number the mighty Dodgers have swatted into.

That, of course, leaves the White Sox toward the top in fly ball rate — ninth — which helps with the dinger data. Still, even the fly balls that stay in the park have fared well, be it good fortune or good location, with an overall BABIP of .285 — just shy of the MLB average of .289 (of course, that’s way down from before the Three True Outcomes era).

Bloop hits can continue indefinitely, right? Or at least for the rest of the 2026 season?

As for sense of direction, Sox batters pull the ball 34% of the time, tops in baseball, leaving them 26th to the opposite field and 29th up the middle. So much for liners up the middle being the ideal goal, no doubt inhibited by shifts these days.

As for some other stuff:

The Sox are tied for third at being hit by pitches, led by Antonacci. Combine that with hitting the second-most opponents makes for a whole lot of plunking going on.

They’re fifth in sacrifices. The four teams ahead of them are all very good, so maybe the overwrought hatred of bunting is a part of Moneyball that needs review, at least when Pedro Grifol isn’t managing.

And here’s one that may go a long way to explaining the team’s success — they’re 27th in leaving runners on base. Long balls do help.

As for baserunning, the Sox are 18th in stolen bases, with 68, but abysmal at stolen base success: Their 69% success rate (77 is the norm) bests only the Tigers. Still, the White Sox are slightly better than average — 44% to 42% — at taking the extra base.

And so …

There you have it, all the stuff you meant to look up but never got around to. Feel free to amaze your friends with your newfound knowledge.

The Mets conclude a three-game series against the Braves in Atlanta on Wednesday night at 7:15 on SNY.

Mets Notes

• Carson Benge is hitting .305/.368/.454 (.822 OPS) in 193 plate appearances dating back to June 18
• Francisco Lindor has an .826 OPS with nine homers in 174 plate appearances since returning from the IL on June 24
• Francisco Alvarez is slashing .261/.376/.504 (.880 OPS) with eight homers in 141 plate appearances since June 23
• Bo Bichette is hitting .308/.351/.447 (.798 OPS) with six homers and 11 doubles in 228 plate appearances dating back to June 11
• Zac Thornton fired 5.0 shutout innings against the Pirates in his last outing, allowing four hits while walking two and striking out three

Today's Lineups