There are now 67 days remaining until Orioles Opening Day. 6 7 is a big meme with the kids, have you heard? If you have, that’s probably because the kids have moved on to something else now that the old people found out about it.
Things have popped off a lot over the last week or so of baseball free agency. The Orioles, as we are aware, have not had anything to do with any of that. A bit of it has shut down their options: Now they’re pretty much down to Framber Valdez or nothing else when it comes to the starting rotation.
That’s not literally true as several other starters remain unsigned, including Zac Gallen and Lucas Giolito. Or even the venerable Justin Verlander, linked vaguely to the Orioles in a recent report that I can’t bring myself to take seriously. The thing is that Valdez is the only guy with some kind of high-end potential and also a track record of durability.
I have thought all offseason that if the Orioles want to get serious about improving their rotation, they’re going to have to give out a big contract. What they’ve done instead is trade for Shane Baz and sign Zach Eflin. It might work. It has a better chance of working if they nail an addition for a playoff-caliber starting pitcher. This could still happen. There just aren’t as many options now as there were a few weeks ago.
Orioles stuff you might have missed
2026 ZiPS projections: Baltimore Orioles (FanGraphs) If you missed it on Friday, one of the big projection systems is out with its take on the Orioles. Some things are positive. Others less so.
Today in 2009, the Orioles acquired Félix Pie from the Cubs. He was popular around here even if he was never good, and that time he hit for the cycle was pretty fun.
There are a number of former Orioles who were born on this day. They are: 2022-23 catcher Anthony Bemboom, 2006-08 infielder Brandon Fahey, 1993 pitcher Kevin McGehee, 1988-2001 outfielder Brady Anderson, 1976-88 pitcher Scott McGregor, 1962/67 infielder Mickey McGuire, and 1956-57 pitcher Mike Fornieles.
Is today your birthday? Happy birthday to you! Your birthday buddies for today include: philosopher Montesquieu (1689), antebellum figure Daniel Webster (1782), Winnie-the-Pooh creator A.A. Milne (1882), and actor Cary Grant (1904).
On this day in history…
In 1486, the warring York and Lancaster factions in England were united when the reigning King Henry VII married Elizabeth of York. Their united house became known as Tudor.
In 1778, British explorer James Cook’s expedition reached the Hawaiian islands, which he dubbed the Sandwich Islands at the time. Cook was the first European explorer known to have visited the islands.
In 1919, the peace conference meant to end the conflict we now know as World War I began in Versailles, France.
In 1993, Martin Luther King Jr. Day was observed in all 50 states for the first time.
A random Orioles trivia question
I received a book of Orioles trivia for Christmas. Each time I have this space, I’ll ask a question until I either run out of questions or forget. The book is multiple choice, but that would make it too easy for us. Today’s question:
Who was the starting pitcher in the one game of the 1983 World Series that the Orioles lost?
Imagine the Orioles winning a World Series! Nope, I can’t do it.
**
And that’s the way it is in Birdland on January 18. Have a safe Sunday.
Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, throwing during a spring training game last year, became an anomaly in 2025 with two complete games in the postseason. With so much emphasis on velocity, can starters pitch deep into games anymore? One independent league is trying to find out. (Ashley Landis / Associated Press)
The independent minor leagues are baseball’s laboratories.
Baseball’s obsession with velocity has dampened the soul of the sport. The marquee pitching matchup is an endangered species. The oohs and aahs over a 100-mph pitch have been replaced by yawns.
The potential solution, or at least a piece of one, is evident in this job description:
The United Shore Professional Baseball League (USPBL), an independent league based in Michigan, is recruiting for the position of “primary starting pitcher.”
The game isn’t building traditional starters anymore. At the @uspbl, were changing that.
We are actively recruiting Primary Starting Pitchers who want to take the ball every week, pitch deep into games, and become the durable, innings-capable arms MLB organizations need.
The language is intentional. In today’s major leagues, a starting pitcher generally is selected, trained and deployed to throw as hard as he can for as long as he can. Five innings is perfectly acceptable, with a parade of harder-throwing reinforcements in the bullpen.
What the USPBL plans for a primary starting pitcher: “Build the ability to pitch deep into games.”
That used to be self-evident for a starting pitcher, but no longer. Yoshinobu Yamamoto turned into Sandy Koufax last October, with back-to-back complete games during the Dodgers’ championship run.
However, in the regular season, the Dodgers did not throw a complete game, and neither did 12 other teams. The Dodgers’ starters averaged 4.85 innings per game; no team averaged even six innings.
In 2025, three major league pitchers threw 200 innings. In 2010, 45 did.
Buehrle, a five-time All-Star, and Lee, a four-time All-Star, each featured precision rather than power.
Lee, twice a Game 1 World Series starter, did not average 92 mph on his fastball but pitched 200 innings eight times. Buerhle, whose average fastball did not top 90 mph, pitched 200 innings for 14 consecutive years.
Neither might be drafted today. Major league teams crave velocity, and young pitchers train to boost it. The number of players throwing at least 95 mph at the Perfect Game national showcase increased sevenfold from 2014 to 2024, according to a report from Major League Baseball.
The average MLB fastball rose from 91 mph in 2008 to 94 mph in 2024, the report said.
Velocity also is associated with an increased risk of injury. Teams have implemented well-intentioned measures — pitch counts, innings limits, more rest between appearances — that have not mitigated the risks and might well have led to more injuries.
Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga prepares to pitch in the bullpen (Ashley Landis / Associated Press)
Kyle Boddy, the founder of Driveline, the seminal program for velocity training, said a hard-throwing pitcher is not going to manage his velocity on an inflexible pitch count.
“If he goes 60 or 70 pitches, he’s going to sit 100,” Boddy told Baseball America. “He’s not stupid. And if we tell him, ‘There’s no limits on you,’ but we keep taking him out after 70 pitches every time, he’s going to realize what’s going on.
“If he can’t control the volume, the one lever he can control is the intensity. I personally think that’s worse for his arm, going max effort for shorter stints.”
That ultimately works against developing starting pitchers capable of delivering six innings, the MLB report said.
“Modern workload management strategies — ostensibly intended to prevent overuse, protect pitcher health, and maximize pitcher effectiveness — may actually increase injury risk by allowing and even incentivizing pitchers to throw with maximum effort on every pitch,” the report said, “rather than requiring pitchers to conserve energy and pace themselves in an effort to pitch through longer outings.”
Not only does throwing harder increase the risk of injury, the MLB report said, but the resulting parade of strikeouts runs “counter to contact-oriented approaches that create more balls in play and result in the type of on-field action that fans want to see.”
In the independent Atlantic League, the league has run several years of testing on a “double hook” rule: when a team removes its starting pitcher, it loses its designated hitter. That would incentivize a major league team to use its starter for six or seven innings instead of four or five, but it would not solve the underlying problem: What if the starting pitcher cannot work six or seven innings?
That is where Orenduff and the USPBL come in.
Every general manager says he would love a rotation of five 200-inning starters, if only he could find them. They cannot offer on-the-job training in the majors, lest their team find itself at a competitive disadvantage.
In an independent league, Orenduff need not worry about that. Tough matchup with the bases loaded in the fourth inning? Third time through the order in the sixth inning? Pitch through it.
“It’s not going to be that quick pull,” he said.
This is not about leaving a starting pitcher out there to get crushed just to pitch through it. This is about shaking off the shackles of those one-size-fits-all limitations.
“You basically want to start by showing fans and the industry, for example, that 100 pitches is just a number,” he said. “It’s completely arbitrary.
“Some guys may be able to go 110, 120. We want to be able to show that the game can still produce players that are successful on the mound, most importantly, but are capable of going beyond the fifth inning and beyond 100 pitches if the expectation and the leadership and the structure are there to support it.”
The USPBL will have pretty much the same technology as major league teams do, to measure spin rates and recovery rates and every other rate. If you can maintain command and velocity, if you can get outs without max effort on every pitch, and if you can bounce back between innings and between starts, you may be able to be that primary starting pitcher.
Frankly, Orenduff says, all the velocity in the world cannot help your team if you cannot pitch.
“That has to be a metric too: sustainability and availability,” he said.
He conducted a study evaluating each team’s top three pitching draft picks since 2013. With the caveats that some pitchers were traded and some prospects still are developing, Orenduff found that three in four of those top drafted pitchers never have pitched for the major league team that drafted them, at a combined cost to the 30 MLB teams of $800 million in signing bonuses.
“We just have to have some sort of proof we can help more players have longer careers by being a little more flexible in how we frame things for them,” Orenduff said.
Here’s hoping the USPBL can discover some training methods that major league teams can use. Better that than listening to a major league manager with a 13-man pitching staff say after a game that he ran out of pitchers, as we too often hear. Can you imagine what Tommy Lasorda would have to say about that?
New York Post | Greg Joyce: Considering the Yankees never really got past even the “checked in on” stage with Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette, as far as free agents, it seems their priority has always been Cody Bellinger. However with the first two now off the board, the Yankees’ margin for error in regards to his pursuit is now small, with other teams, the Blue Jays and Mets possibly among them, now potentially more likely to focus on him as well. The Yankees have held firm on their five-year offer to Bellinger throughout the negotiation process, and it’ll be interesting to see if they stick to their guns should one of the other suitors cross that line.
USA Today | Gabe Lacques: Besides Bellinger, there still is a number of notable name free agents still out there on the market. Those range from the theoretical “aces” in the likes of Framber Valdez and Zac Gallen, some older guys looking to squeeze out one more season like Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, and some relievers and role players. Here’s a look at what the market currently looks like.
NJ.com | Randy Miller: Ever since being the Yankees’ first round draft selection in 2024, George Lombard Jr. has been among the team’s highest ranked prospects. While he still has plenty of improving to do in order to get on the major league radar, he has all the raw tools, as he talked about in this interview. Lombard ended his season on a hot streak after struggling with the jump to Double-A last year, putting up promising numbers for a player just getting into his age-20 season, and now he’ll have the opportunity to show how well his adjustments have stuck in the upper half of the minors.
The Pittsburgh Pirates landed two of the top international prospects in all of baseball this week.
On Thursday, the Pirates announced that they signed 25 players to begin the 2026 International Signing Period.
Included in the class were two athletes from the Dominican Republic who ranked in MLB Pipeline’s Top 50 Prospects list.
Pittsburgh acquired No. 7 prospect Jeancer Custodio and No. 7 Wilton Guerrero Jr. on the first day of international deals.
Today marks the beginning of the 2026 International Signing Period and we have announced signing of 25 international players. pic.twitter.com/Ad5oQnXbtV
A 17-year-old outfielder, Custodio is a 5-foot-10 right-handed hitter who prospects with a 65 overall hit tool.
He is from Baní, the same city as Jose Ramirez and former MLB stars Miguel Tejada and Jose Bautista. Custodio has a 55-grade power tool and hit .333 with a .429 on-base percentage on the 18U World Cup qualifying team.
Guerrero Jr. has a familiar last name for baseball fans around the world. Wilton Guerrero Jr. is the nephew of Vladimir Guerrero Sr. and cousin of Blue Jays star Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
His dad, Wilton Guerrero Sr., played eight years in Major League Baseball and retired to become a member of MLB’s Trainer Partnership Program in Nizao, Dominican Republic, per MLB Pipeline.
Only 16 years old, Wilton Guerrero Jr. is a 5-foot-10 shortstop with a 50-grade hit tool and a 70-rated speed.
The deals signal two impactful additions for Vice President of International Scouting Max Kwan, who was hired prior to the 2025 season.
The Pirates signed 12 additional players from the Dominican Republic, seven from Venezuela, and one from Brazil, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Panama. Pittsburgh can still sign international players to deals, but the start of the International Signing Period is a key indicator of the top players who will sign with the 30 different organizations.
The music has not yet stopped, but it is certainly getting close to the final chorus in the game of musical chairs that is MLB free agency.
And while the Yankees and Cody Bellinger continue their dance around the length of a contract, what would have been their two best free agent pivots if they weren’t able to find common ground with Bellinger are no longer on the board.
With Kyle Tucker landing a four-year, $240 million contract with the Dodgers and Bo Bichette heading to Queens on a three-year, $126 million deal, the Yankees options for an impact bat beyond Bellinger are dwindling — and they are not overflowing on the trade market, either — turning up the pressure to finally secure a reunion with their top priority all offseason.
The Yankees are believed to have an offer out to Bellinger for five years and $155 million, though the 30-year-old’s camp is still seeking seven years. Now that Tucker and Bichette have agreed to deals elsewhere, the market for Bellinger should become more defined, with the lefty-hitting outfielder becoming the clear-cut top hitter available in free agency — and by a decent margin, with third baseman Eugenio Suárez the next best hitter remaining.
There had been a sense that Bellinger may wait for Tucker to sign so that the teams that missed out on the former Astro and Cub could boost the market for the former Yankee, Cub and Dodger. Besides the Dodgers, the Mets and Blue Jays were the teams going hardest for Tucker, and while the Mets rebounded by signing Bichette — who the Phillies had been trying to reel in — to another short-term deal, they still have a need in the outfield.
Cody Bellinger #35 of the New York Yankees reacts after hitting a single during the first inning. Charles Wenzelberg / New York Post
So the Yankees’ competition for Bellinger now figures to include the Mets, Blue Jays and Giants, perhaps with the Phillies also in play, though they responded to losing out on Bichette by re-signing catcher J.T. Realmuto to a three-year, $45 million deal.
The Blue Jays had offered Tucker a 10-year, $350 million deal, The Post’s Jon Heyman reported. Tucker is a year and a half younger and a more consistent hitter, but might they be willing to offer some of that money and years for Bellinger? Besides, it would be two for the price of one by keeping him away from their AL East rivals, who have said all along how much they want to bring him back.
The Mets had offered Tucker four years and $220 million, per Heyman. They have been loathe to offer long-term deals with older players, but would a short-term deal with a higher average annual value than the Yankees are offering be something Bellinger would consider? The Mets could certainly use him, with their current projected outfield made up of Juan Soto in right, Tyrone Taylor in center, and rookie Carson Benge in left. And Scott Boras, Bellinger’s agent, is only just over a year removed from his client (then Soto) being in a bidding war between the two New York teams.
For now, the Yankees have been holding fast to their five-year offer for Bellinger, wary all winter of not bidding against themselves. But their margin for error is slim.
Brian Cashman has said all along that they could head into spring with a left field competition between Jasson Domínguez and Spencer Jones. And if they do end up missing on Bellinger, it would not be surprising to see them add a right-handed hitting outfielder — someone like Austin Hays — to form a potential platoon with Domínguez, a switch-hitter who is much better from the left side.
But such a scenario would still leave them with a big hole in their lineup, given the threat that Bellinger was hitting behind Aaron Judge for most of the season last year, and remove a valuable, versatile and trustworthy defender from their roster. All of which, of course, is why he has been the Yankees’ top target from the start, as long as it comes at a price and term with which they are comfortable.
There are rumors that are growing strong regarding trade talks between the Houston Astros and the Boston Red Sox.
Many of the rumors involve Astros 3B Isaac Paredes and Red Sox LF Jarren Duran.
There have been several iterations of this rumor, as far as packages going back and forth, and other players that have been mentioned in these rumors include Red Sox SP Brayan Bello as well as Astros CF Jake Meyers and SP Spencer Arrighetti.
Both the Red Sox and the Astros line up well as trade partners, and these rumors have indicated a deal could be coming in the next week.
Keep in mind, it’s the offseason and rumors fly. Rumors can also be very true until the last second when one team pivots out. However, the Red Sox and Astros have been linked as trade partners that make sense all offseason, and they are able to meet each other’s needs through their own surpluses.
The Red Sox are clearly looking for a 3B, and the Astros for a left-handed hitting outfielder.
A trade of Jake Meyers would make Zach Cole the favorite to be the everyday starting centerfielder for the Astros, with Jarren Duran in left field, and Cam Smith/Jesus Sanchez in right field. Trading Paredes would solidify Christian Walker as the Astros starting 1B and Jose Altuve as the starting 2B, clearing the infield log jam.
If acquired, Bello would slot in as the Astros fourth starter behind Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier and Tatsuya Imai. Mike Burrows is likely the fifth starter, and a competition for the sixth starter would emerge between Jason Alexander, A.J. Blubaugh, Nate Pearson, Lance McCullers Jr. and Ryan Weiss. Others could emerge in that competition as well.
Astros Fans, It’s Time to Be Realistic About Kyle Tucker
Astros fans, it’s time to step back, relax and stop all the hate for Kyle Tucker because he decided to sign with the Dodgers. You need to be realistic and get past your hurt feelings surrounding Kyle Tucker’s decision to sign with a team you despise. Appreciating Tucker as one of the standout players from Houston’s Golden Era of baseball without holding a grudge over a business decision that was driven by money and financial security, not loyalty to a team he no longer played for, is where your focus should be. If you were in his shoes, you’d do the exact same thing.
Let’s not forget how quickly circumstances changed. Tucker was traded away from a franchise he loved just one year before he reached free agency. Once that happened, all bets were off. Where he would land, how much money he would make, and how long his next contract would be were no longer Houston’s concerns. The Astros’ front office, led by Dana Brown, did what they believed was best for the organization, fully aware that Tucker was likely headed elsewhere when free agency arrived.
The Astros have long operated within specific financial parameters when it comes to long-term, big-money contracts. Fans should have come to terms with Tucker’s eventual departure the moment he was traded. It wasn’t personal. It was business, and that’s okay.
If fans are looking for a place to direct their frustration, Major League Baseball and its Commissioner, Rob Manfred, would be a more appropriate target. After the Dodgers signed Shohei Ohtani to a massive, heavily deferred contract, MLB had an opportunity to step in and tighten the rules surrounding such deals. Instead, the league allowed the structure to stand, opening the door for similar arrangements in the future.
That decision signaled a growing divide between the “haves” and the “have-nots” in baseball. Big-market teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, and Red Sox can leverage financial advantages that small-market clubs simply can’t match. The result is a league increasingly tilted toward the richest franchises.
The harsh reality is that Major League Baseball is heading toward a potentially contentious labor negotiation and inevitably a work stoppage. Smaller-market teams and the lower half of the league are not in a position to compete financially, and that imbalance is only getting worse. Manfred must step in and do what’s right for the sport as a whole, rather than continuing to protect and promote big-market interests.
There has never been a stronger case for both a salary cap and a salary floor. These measures could help prevent financial disparities from dominating roster construction and protect competitive balance across the league. Owners must recognize that another work stoppage could seriously damage the momentum and popularity baseball has built in recent years.
As for the Dodgers, if you don’t like them, that’s fine. Rivalries are part of sports. Their fan base, their World Series history, and their swagger make them easy targets. But don’t be angry simply because their front office outmaneuvered the rest of the league. If the Astros had pulled off the same kind of deal, Houston fans would be celebrating.
The Dodgers are only doing what Major League Baseball allows them to do. It’s up to the rest of the owners and the league office to prevent these financial loopholes from creating long-term competitive advantages. Deals like this require a perfect storm: a superstar player with massive endorsement income who doesn’t need his money up front, and a franchise willing to push the boundaries of contract structure.
That responsibility doesn’t fall on the players or the teams taking advantage of the system. It falls on the league to make sure the system is fair for everyone.
So appreciate what Kyle Tucker gave Houston, accept the reality of modern baseball business, and aim your frustration where it truly belongs, at MLB and the rules that allow the rich to keep getting richer.
Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Padres fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.
First things first… most, if not all, San Diego Padres fans were happy the team was able to re-sign pitcher Michael King. The problem has been the Padres have not done much since that reunion became official.
San Diego added free agent infielder Sung-Mun Song not long after King, but we learned Saturday he will miss at least four weeks with a strained oblique. The other major league additions for the Padres have been re-signing left-hander Kyle Hart and new additions relievers Ty Adcock and Daison Acosta. All other signings by San Diego this offseason have been minor league deals with some of those invited to Spring Training. Hardly the kind of moves that whip a fanbase into a frenzy.
Recent reports have stated San Diego president of baseball operations and general manager A.J. Preller wants to make moves but is waiting to do so. Speculation is that he is waiting for prices to come down on some free agent targets and/or he is waiting on a trade to come through that will allow the Padres to clear some payroll to create financial flexibility.
As with anything, there is a process to building the roster, but to this point in the offseason the Friar Faithful have been less than thrilled with the moves the team has made. Most fans who took part in the latest Padres Reacts Survey said the offseason has been worse than they expected. Some of that may be due to the sudden resignation of manager Mike Shildt or the news the Seidler family was exploring a potential sale of the club, but the lack of moves and additions to the roster has to be the biggest factor in the way fans feel about the team.
Over the past week, Padres fans have watched as the Arizona Diamondbacks traded for Nolan Arenado and saw the Los Angeles Dodgers sign free agent Kyle Tucker. The San Francisco Giants, and Dodgers, are rumored to be in trade talks for Milwaukee Brewers ace pitcher Freddy Peralta and the Giants have also been linked to free agent pitcher Framber Valdez. All the movement in the National League West only highlights the lack of movement from San Diego.
Perhaps that changes over the coming weeks, but the start to Spring Training in early February is fast approaching and the Friar Faithful could use a couple of moves to salvage an offseason that has had more bad news than good.
If your jaw hit the floor when you learned that the Los Angeles Dodgers had signed free agent Kyle Tucker to a borderline offensive contract this week, you were not alone. Now that we know that the Dodgers payroll will top $400 million dollars for the upcoming season, it’s more important than ever that Chaim Bloom and his team get this rebuild of the St. Louis Cardinals done right for us to contend again soon.
Just for reference, here is the payroll for the Los Angeles Dodgers dating back a decade:
The projected payroll for the Dodgers for the 2026 season is a remarkable $413.6 million dollars. Now, let’s all exhale and try to find our happy place because this outrageous Dodgers spending shouldn’t be intimidating. It should be inspiring because I believe we have the management team now that is capable of taking down giants (and I’m not talking about the San Francisco kind). I can’t remember which one of my favorite Cardinals writers said this, but I think it’s Bernie Miklasz. It’s not the amount of your payroll, but it’s what you do with it that matters. Yes, the Los Angeles Dodgers have used their money to grab nearly every all-star within reach, but the choices they made have been smart and roster management by Dave Roberts has been masterful.
My point to this is the St. Louis Cardinals used to be great at developing great young players and then adding the appropriate pieces during the offseason and at the trade deadline to fill needs and improve strengths. Our beloved team lost that vision over the past half decade. It doesn’t matter if you want to blame ownership or the previous president of baseball operations, the bottom line is our farm system did not progress the way it needed to for us to be real contenders against big market teams like Los Angeles. After seeing the moves made by Chaim Bloom this offseason, I’m a believer again. He has accomplished nearly everything he said he wanted to do and that should be applauded.
There is history to prove that if the St. Louis Cardinals get this rebuild done right, a big payroll will not stop us from ascending back into a place where we’re consistently contending for pennants again. Remember the lowly 2003 Florida Marlins who won the championship with the league’s smallest payroll? The 2007 Tampa Bay Rays (then Devil Rays) ended up in the World Series with a team that may have included some buy one, get one free coupons. The Kansas City Royals 2015 World Series title was accomplished with a payroll of just over $112 million. Even the recent 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks made a deep playoff run with only a $116 to $119 million dollars roster. Having a world championship caliber team with a non-stratospheric payroll has been done in the past and it will be done in the future. Let’s hope that there are birds on the bat uniforms that make that happen. We’re coming for you, Dodgers. It’s only a matter of time before you have to explain to your Hollywood fans how a small market team took you down. Ask Clayton Kershaw how that feels. He remembers it well.
Edwin Arroyo has a chance to fight his way onto the Cincinnati Reds roster at some point in 2026, and his elite defense likely means he’ll stick there for quite some time. That was good enough for him to take home the #5 spot in this year’s Community Prospect Rankings, and now we move on to the voting for who’ll follow him!
Per usual, there will be a poll embedded at the bottom of the post where you can cast your vote, but if that’s stripped out you can also find the link to the ballot by clicking here (up until voting ends and I remove both access points).
Also, if there’s someone you think worthy of consideration at this point who has not yet been listed, let us know in the comment section below.
On to the candidates for spot #6!
Cam Collier, 3B/1B (21 years old)
2025 at a glance: .279/.391/.384 with 4 HR, 21 2B in 396 PA split between ACL Reds (Arizona Complex League), A+ Dayton Dragons (Midwest League), and AA Chattanooga Lookouts (Southern League); .221/.368/.325 with 1 HR in 95 PA with Peoria Javelinas (Arizona Fall League)
Pros: Plus hit tool and his plate discipline is rapidly moving into plus category as well; plenty of power that we’re still hoping can return in-game after his thumb injury
Cons: Defense leaves a lot to be desired, and he’s likely already a 1B-only at this point
Collier busted his thumb in spring training in 2025, and the break (and recovery) caused him to miss the first two months of the season. A rehab stint came in Arizona next, and he eventually worked his way all the way up to AA Chattanooga…albeit with a shocking lack of power from the guy who swatted 20 homers for A+ Dayton in 2024, a mark that tied him for the Midwest League lead.
What Collier did do in 2025, though, is begin to show some pretty elite OBP skills, and if he can maintain that and get the power back a year removed from the broken thumb, well, the Reds have the guy they gave an overslot bonus to in the 1st round back in 2022 who repeatedly made Top 100 overall prospect lists in his first years as a pro. And even if that all only comes as a 1B who’s not the world’s greatest defender that’s an incredibly valuable thing, especially with the dearth of offense the franchise owns right now.
Chase Petty, RHP (23 years old)
2025 at a glance: 6.39 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 102/58 K/BB in 112.2 IP with AAA Louisville Bats (International League); 13 ER in 6.0 IP with Cincinnati Reds
Pros: Three plus pitches, including a fastball that flirts with 100 mph and 60-grade slider and cutter
Cons: Lit up in first cups of MLB coffee, and struggled in AAA after being sent back down
Petty has long been on the radar of every scout in the game, a former 1st round pick of the Minnesota Twins out of high school (whom the Reds had eyes on drafting back then, too). He was the centerpiece of the deal that sent Sonny Gray the other way, and he’s pitched his way onto multiple Top 100 overall prospect lists since.
Of course, he’s also pitched his way back off those same lists, with much of his work in 2025 doing just that. He was shelled at the big league level, though that’s with the caveat that he’d just turned 22 years old when that went down. The stuff’s still there, he’s just struggled to blend it all together for long enough stretches to show he can be an effective big league starter. The hope is that the lumps he took in 2025 paired with a mostly healthy offseason for the first time in a while will send him into 2026 both ready and with something to prove.
Tyson Lewis, SS (20 years old)
2025 at a glance: .340/.396/.532 (.928 OPS) in 207 PA with ACL Reds (Arizona Complex League); .268/.347/.417 (.765 OPS) in 144 PA with Class-A Daytona Tortugas (Florida State League)
Pros: Statcast darling with elite exit velocity and power with his left-handed swing; elite athleticism and plus speed gives him a chance to stick at SS long term, though a move off the position seems likely
Cons: Struck out at an alarming 35.4% rate with Daytona (and at an alarming 29.1% rate overall last year); .432 BABIP across all leagues last year screams ‘regression’
Tools. Tyson Lewis has just about every tool there is. He hit a ball over 119 mph in his pro debut, was the Gatorade Player of the Year in Nebraska prior to being a 2nd round pick (with an overslot bonus) by the Reds, and was originally committed to the University of Arkansas.
The upside here is obvious, as he’s got one of the loudest bats at any level. The swing and miss stuff, though, is something he’ll have to completely overhaul as he moves up the ladder, though getting out of the extremely pitcher-friendly confines of the FSL will perhaps help that some.
Steele Hall, SS (18 years old)
2025 at a glance: Drafted 9th overall in the 1st round of the 2025 MLB Draft by the Cincinnati Reds out of Hewitt-Trussville HS (AL); 2025 Mr. Baseball in the state of Alabama, once committed to powerhouse University of Tennessee before signing with the Reds for $5.75 million
Pros: Speed, and plenty of it; projectable power and potential five-tool player whose defense and arm look like they’ll play plenty well at short; just 17 years old when drafted after reclassifying a year early
Cons: It’s all still ‘projectable’ as, again, he just turned 18 after the draft and has zero professional PA to show for it
Hall reclassified to the class of 2025 despite originally being part of the class of 2026, and the Reds – who’d been scouting him already – thought he had the talent to eventually mature into a player who’d be in the mix for the #1 overall pick in 2026. So, when he was there at pick #9 in 2025, they jumped at the chance to sign him, knowing full well there was no rush for his development.
He’s drawn comparisons to the likes of Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson, which is pretty damn lofty. Despite not having played a pro game and still being just 18, he’s ranked 79th in MLB Pipeline’s list of the Top 100 overall prospects in the game. How quickly he can physically mature and adapt to breaking balls at the top levels remains to be seen, but the speed, glove, and arm all look like they’ll be big-league caliber in very short order.
Aaron Watson, RHP (19 years old)
2025 at a glance: Drafted by the Cincinnati Reds in the 2nd round of the 2025 MLB Draft out of Trinity Christian Academy (FL); signed overslot $2.7 million bonus to forego commitment to the University of Florida
Pros: 6’5” frame; potential 60-grade slider; fastball that runs up to 96 mph from a three-quarter arm slot and already has a solid three-pitch mix with his change rotated in
Cons: Did not pitch professionally after being drafted, so he’s a complete unknown
One glimpse of Watson on the mound and you immediately think yep, I bet that guy can turn into a pretty dang good pitcher. He’s got an ideal frame to produce downhill offerings, and his fastball/slider mix is already something on which he can hang his hat.
However, command of all three of his pitches – specifically a very developmental changeup – will be what he needs to work on to begin to move quickly through the ranks. He possesses a good ‘feel’ at the moment in terms of what pitches to throw, which part of the zone to attack vs. which hitters, etc., but how well he can build in more deception with his offerings will be vital.
Jose Franco, RHP (25 years old)
2025 at a glance: 3.11 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 118/54 K/BB in 110.0 IP split between AA Chattanooga Lookouts (Southern League) and AAA Louisville Bats (International League)
Pros: Fastball that flirts with triple digits with ease
Cons: Secondary pitches need work, and that’s impacting his overall command (and ability to limit walks)
Franco turned 25 years old in November and earned a promotion to the 40-man roster of the Reds shortly thereafter due to his consistent performance across the upper levels of their farm system.
The Reds have a few hulks they’ve put on the mound in recent years, and Franco thoroughly qualifies. He’s listed at 6’2” and an oddly specific 257 lbs, and his size and frame allows him to tap into his excellent fastball velocity with ease. It’s the pitch he misses bats with the most, but how well he can differentiate his breaking pitches (and improve his changeup command) will determine whether or not he can a) get left-handed hitter out with aplomb and b) avoid ending up in the bullpen.
He’s been a late bloomer, in part due to injuries that cost him his entire 2023 season, and if he continues the path he’s been on since getting healthy there could be a whole lot more from him as early as 2026 for Cincinnati.
San Diego Padres infielder Sung-Mun Song is reportedly on his way to Arizona to prepare for the start of Spring Training with his new team. That training will initially be medical care and rehab after it was reported on Yonhap News that Song has an oblique strain after a batting practice session.
Jeeho Yo of the Yonhap News Agency wrote on Jan. 17 that Song went to a clinic in Japan after the injury for extensive treatment and then was scheduled to fly to Arizona. The source for the article reported that there was a minimum of four weeks recovery before Song could resume baseball activities.
Song was in San Diego to sign his four-year, $15 million deal last month and then returned to South Korea to resume his preparation for the 2026 season. Originally on the roster for the Korean World Baseball Classic team, Song will likely now be staying in Arizona with the Padres to prepare for the season.
Padres pitchers and catchers begin workouts on Feb. 11 and will report on Feb. 10 for physicals. Position players begin workouts on Feb. 15 and will most likely be reporting before then for physicals and early work.
The typical recovery time for oblique injuries is based on the severity of the injury. Fernando Tatis Jr. admitted to a mild oblique strain (cramps) that would keep him from considering being involved in the Home Run Derby during the 2025 All-Star game. He never went on the injured list for the issue and that would probably be the most optimistic situation an MLB player can have while experiencing oblique issues.
Padres pitcher Matt Waldron suffered an oblique injury, described as mild, while warming up during a Spring Training game in March of 2025 and was not the same pitcher the Padres knew when he came off the IL in June. He was optioned to Triple-A El Paso soon after and never made it back to San Diego, struggling with the Chihuahuas.
This could be a minor setback to Song’s start with the Padres, or it could prove to be a bigger issue if his recovery is delayed. Four weeks from mid-January would mean an on time start to Spring Training with a probable slower ramp up for him than the healthy players. The beginning of the season might not be affected, but if the injury lingers and Song is not able to start Spring Training with the rest of the team, then he might not be available for Opening Day.
Let’s hope for a positive update during Padres FanFest on Jan. 31. Hopefully his early arrival in Arizona to work with Padres’ training and medical staff will bode well for a quick recovery.
Day 2 of the 2026 Cubs Convention started out the same way it always does, with Cubs President of Baseball Operations, Jed Hoyer and General Manager Carter Hawkins taking the stage, followed by a session with Cubs manager Craig Counsell. Both sessions were moderated by Cubs play-by-play man Boog Sciambi. But the one thing that was different in 2026 were the vibes. Jed Hoyer seemed relaxed and confident as he took the stage in a Bears jersey. His answers seemed more transparent, he seemed, dare I say it: Relaxed.
It was a welcome vibe shift from the tone the front office has set in previous years. Oh, what a difference winning season makes. I slightly jest, but it did seem like the weight was off Jed’s shoulders as they discussed everything from the team’s strategy with deferred contracts to stories about the time he was a bat boy for the Reds.
Deferrals were the biggest news out of both sessions. The Alex Bregman signing was the first time this front office has inked a free agent deal with a player that had a significant amount of money deferred. Hoyer indicated that they would be willing to make those moves again:
Hoyer and Hawkins talking deferrals, sounds like the club is far more open to doing them in the future as well, not just a Bregman thing.
That’s a potentially huge development for the team and should allow them to be more competitive on the free agent market.
Craig Counsell also discussed Matt Shaw’s role on the 2026 clubs as more of a super utility player. When asked if he would play in the outfield the manager’s answer was direct: “It’s going to happen.” He referenced Kris Bryant and how he moved around with the 2016 team seeming to imply that Shaw will have a similar role for the Cubs this year. That may be good news for Shaw’s playing time, given an infield crew that rarely takes days off:
Could Nico Hoerner benefit from taking a day off with Matt Shaw in the fold?
But the most notable parts of both of these panels was, honestly, how little news was made. With the Cubs coming off a season that saw them take the National League Division Series to five games against the Brewers and clearly basking in the vibes of a big trade and an even bigger free agent signing, everyone seemed more relaxed.
Hoyer told an endearing anecdote about being dropped off for a Reds Spring Training game at nine in the morning when he was 13 and how he’d talked his way into being the bat boy by 11. Carter Hawkins took a tough question about his 2032 comment from the trade deadline and turned it into a joke saying the next day Jed mentioned he probably shouldn’t have said that, and then laughing that he did it to take the pressure off Hoyer. Honestly, it was a bit like both of them took a page from Craig Counsell’s playbook. The Cubs manager has been more carefree in these conversations the last couple of seasons.
Counsell discussed a range of issues including roster construction and bullpen management. But the most endearing moment was him discussing ejections and a moment last season against the Red Sox when Ryan Flaherty was ejected. Apparently, John Mallee sheepishly admitted he’d actually made the comment and Counsell negotiated being able to pick which coach ultimately left the dugout. The real punchline of that anecdote was absolutely the tidbit about how his family had made a coaster of Counsell arguing with an umpire that the family uses when they have guests.
There was a real sense of ease for the crew who lead the Cubs from the front office and the dugout. It was a welcome change from some of the angst that has permeated the questions from fans the front office has fielded over the past few years. As much as I hope those vibes persist after a successful 2026 campaign, I imagine the CBA negotiations could complicate a repeat of this year’s relaxed and chill environment. It’s a good reminder to enjoy these moments, and jokes, while we can.
Some of the top names in the Detroit Tigers’ 2025 draft class may take a while to really get cooking. With the group headed by prep shortstop Jordan Yost and prep catcher Michael Oliveto, the Tigers are unlikely to see one of them rushing the upper levels anytime soon. In the meantime, eighth round pick OF Nick Dumesnil was among the few who got a brief look at Single-A Lakeland last summer. He showed enough to keep an eye on him as the California Baptist University product looks to push his way to West Michigan and beyond this year.
Dumesnil is a 6’2” 210 pound outfielder, and he was drafted at age 21, so he was on the youngish side for a junior in his draft class and won’t turn 22 until March. The Tigers paid him $214,500, just a modest bump over the minimum, so he was another pick to save money for their top targets. His college career was impressive despite his small school background. The center fielder hit 19 home runs in his sophomore year across 61 games and he showed out pretty well swinging wood bats in the Cape Cod League later that season.
By that point his draft stock had rocketed to where he was pretty universally viewed as an early round pick. However, his power output cooled as a junior as he had a little more trouble with breaking stuff. He still cracked 10 bombs in 57 games while stealing 27 bases and drew his walks. The strikeouts were up somewhat but he still made a good deal of hard contact. Even so, the down junior year chilled his draft stock in some quarters, though Baseball America still had him 52nd on their draft board in one of their final mock drafts last spring prior to the July draft.
Dumensil only played 16 games with Single-A Lakeland, so we can’t really take anything from the results, though they were modestly positive, but he showed off some interesting underlying traits. He walked much more than he struck out and his swinging strike rate was a very low 8.7 percent. He averaged 89.5 mph with his average exit velocity, which is really good by MLB standards, though again, this was just a couple weeks worth of games. Still, those are some intriguing numbers for a player who has size and also carries the speed to play a fairly solid center field right now. As a quality college hitter handling Single-A pretty quickly is mandatory, but the amount of hard contact was nice to see.
There are plenty of questions that will need to start being answered in 2026 as Dumesnil makes his full season pro debut. Still, there’s a chance that the Tigers landed a sleeper here with a lot of strong tools. He’s probably not a full-time center fielder in the long-term, but he looks like he’ll be able to capably handle all three outfield spots. His arm is solid, though not a prototypical right fielder’s cannon.
Dumesnil has a tendency to get out in front rather than sitting back to drive pitches to the pull field, but there’s time to work on it. He did produce a lot of ground balls and precious little hard contact in the air in Lakeland. Still, his size and his history say there’s a chance to develop average power, particularly if he can start driving the ball in the air more. He’s not a burner, but he has above average speed as well. Put those tools together with a history of making a lot of hard contact and pretty good zone discipline, and there’s a ton to like considering the price the Tigers paid to draft him.
We’ll just have to see how he handles a better, more consistent brand of breaking stuff and offspeed this season. A good goal would be for Dumesnil to hit his way to West Michigan by this summer and hold his own there.
The ESPN personality ripped the two-time defending World Series champions after the franchise signed star outfield Kyle Tucker to a four-year, $240 million deal, adding to their embarrassment of riches.
“It’s terrible for baseball,” Russo said during an appearance on the “Dan Patrick Show.” “… I mean, how many guys are you going to have them sign? … Their payroll last year with insurance was over $500 million.
“The Dodgers theoretically aren’t doing anything wrong. They’re playing by the rules but the rules have to change. This is getting to be a joke.”
Russo took exception to the Dodgers’ use of deferred compensation, which has helped them bring in talents like Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Blake Snell, Tucker and others in free agency.
“The rules stink. They gave Ohtani all that money, but it’s all deferred, so he’s making basically $10 million a year,” Russo said. “That gives them the best player in baseball at an incredibly low price, which means they can do anything they want.”
The massive Tucker deal included $30 million in deferred money, bringing the Dodgers’ total future compensation number well past $1 billion.
“You can’t tell me it’s good for the sport,” he said. “Good for L.A., bad for baseball.”
Chicago Cubs’ Kyle Tucker runs the bases after hitting a solo home run during the seventh inning of Game 4 of baseball’s National League Division Series against the Milwaukee Brewers, Oct. 9, 2025, in Chicago. AP
