Category: MLB

When Cal Raleigh steps to the plate at T-Mobile Park for these final few weeks of the 2026 season, Mariners fans might be surprised to hear a different walkup song for their catcher. Raleigh has long favored Washington-born Zach Top’s “Bad Luck”, which he’d been using since last season, but also has a taste for the classics: he’s used Eddie Money’s “Take Me Home Tonight,” Dire Straits’ “Money for Nothing,” and back in the minors, the original Beef Boy Ballad, “Drift Away.”

Classic heavy metal? Not so much.

Except sharp-eared fans might have recently heard Raleigh walking up to “The Trooper” by Iron Maiden, arguably the second-most famous piece of literary art about the Charge of the Light Brigade. Frustrated with his season and open to changing up anything, Raleigh has been trying out different walk-up songs over the past few months – the less said about the use of Martina McBride’s “Independence Day” over the July Fourth homestand, the better – eventually allowing the Mariners’ clubhouse managers and attendants to take a turn picking out songs for him. Clubhouse attendant Tim Kalal, a devout Iron Maiden fan, selected “The Trooper” prior to a game against the Phillies on August 24th. Cal went on to hit three homers in the game and hasn’t looked back since.

It’s a fitting tune for Raleigh, who has probably felt like he’s been in Tennyson’s Valley of Death during 2026. However, there are signs he’s been starting clambering off the gob pile that has been his season. Cal points to a mid-August series in Milwaukee where he instituted a mechanical change as a turnaround in his season. Small sample size ahoy, but since the beginning of that series, Raleigh has a wRC+ of 259 . He’s hit eight home runs over that span, which is one fewer than the number he hit from the beginning of the season to the fourth of July; more importantly, he’s walking much more (19%) and striking out much less (26%) than he’s been this season. He’s also squaring the ball up better, with a barrel rate of over 30% (MLB average is around 8%) and a hard-hit rate of 64.5% (MLB average is 22%).

Part of Raleigh’s adjustments have been getting his hands into better position; they’re a little higher and a little further back. Per Cal, this allows him to be better on-time to get off his good swing, which would contribute to the uptick in hard-hit numbers.

“It doesn’t take as long to get to my fire position,” said Raleigh, noting the new setup has helped him get to that position earlier. “So I don’t have to worry about getting back on time. There’s less room for error. So just being a little higher, a little more back, I’m a little more in that position where I fire from.”

Here he is in that “fire position” in his second home run against Wheeler on August 24th vs. where he was on May 12 (where he broke an 0-for-38 with a single) in Houston. His hands are higher, but really he’s more upright overall, with those classic high elbows that are an Edgar hallmark. His hips are also slightly more open.

Raleigh describes the change as a collective effort among the hitting group.

“You know, Edgar is a big proponent of it, he always has been. He’s big on getting your hands back and getting that separation beforehand so you don’t have to worry about maybe not getting back or not getting on time.”

Compare again to Raleigh in late June, where he’s much more closed at a similar point – you can see even more of his numbers than in the still from May – and his hands are closer to his body with a more perpendicular angle to his lead elbow. You can also see how much stronger Raleigh is to his back leg in August, with a more balanced weight distribution, as opposed to May-June, when he almost seems tipped forward some.

But the primary thing the new setup has given him is his timing back. While his attack angle hasn’t changed, you can see from Raleigh’s swing tracking data that in 2026, he’s often been later on the fastball, which has resulted in him getting under the pitch more, which has in turn resulted in a lot of flyballs that haven’t left the park. While it would be difficult for Raleigh to have repeated his 25% HR/FB ratio from last year ( at those rates, think Schwarber/Caminero/Alonso), this year that number has fallen to a career-low 14.5% (think Miguel Vargas, JJ Bleday, Zach Neto) – still high average, no longer elite.

“I don’t have to go searching or be on perfect timing every time,” said Raleigh. “I can have more room for error for being on time for the fastball and then a little more back on the off-speed.”

One thing that has been consistent for Raleigh all season is his ability to take a walk; even at his worst points, when he was expanding up or chasing out of the zone and striking out consistently, he still ran an above-average walk rate, managing to wring some value out of his plate appearances. But in this mid-August stretch until now, not only is he walking almost 20% of the time, but he’s getting himself into advantage counts and actually doing damage in those counts. Raleigh said he started to feel things shifting in his favor earlier; the mechanical adjustment just helped him unlock the ability to punish mistakes.

“I felt like I was seeing the ball better. I was laying off pitches, I was doing all that stuff. It was just about the execution of it. Now when I was getting the mistake, I was actually taking advantage of it. So I think that’s the difference. Beforehand, I was seeing the ball a lot better and doing a better job of recognizing and stuff like that, but still not getting the execution part through.”

So the two improvements have gone hand-in-hand: Raleigh is doing more damage on the pitches he’s seeing now thanks to the mechanical tweak, but he’s able to get those pitches to damage because of his improved plate discipline and ability to dictate the at-bat – something that can build throughout the game.

“You always want to be on the attack, and if it’s not [the pitch you want], you’re getting another pitch out of them. It might not show up in that first at-bat but maybe you saw that one pitch one extra time, or he had to use all four pitches on you instead of only two or three, and I think it shows up—maybe not in that at-bat, but it shows up in the next one. You recognize it and you get even more good counts, and you do that more often and you can square something up. So it’s that trickle-down effect, like if it’s not immediate, maybe it’s the next time through. It’s just much better when you’re in the driver’s seat. You have a little more freedom. You have a little more ability to be like, what’s my plan here, what am I going to try to do to get that swing off, instead of trying to play defense up there.”

Cal claims not to be an Iron Maiden fan, but the battle metaphor is appropriate for both baseball and the unnamed protagonist of “The Trooper,”

You’ll take my life, but I’ll take yours too
You’ll fire your musket, but I’ll run you through
So when you’re waiting for the next attack
You’d better stand, there’s no turning back

“To me, a typical season is like, 10% of the time you’re hot, super hot, you can’t get out. 10% of the time, you’re awful. You can’t do anything. Then there’s that 80% where you’re fighting, battling. Maybe not good, maybe not bad. Right in the middle. And that’s when you’re trying to fine tune things a little bit and make sure you’re on top of everything.”

At this point it would take a Herculean effort to push Raleigh’s 2026 campaign even towards “right in the middle” – not that that’s stopping him from fighting, battling. The Light Brigade soldier goes into battle knowing he won’t live to fight another day; fighting anyway, plunging on into certain death. It’s too late to save Cal Raleigh’s 2026 season, just like it’s too late to save the Mariners’ 2026 season. But Raleigh’s determination to fight on and finish as strongly as he can, to make those adjustments, to find a way out of the valley is a testament to the kind of player and person he is: in every sense, a Trooper.

The Atlanta Braves won arguably the most dramatic game of the season last night that resulted in a season tiebreaker against the Philadelphia Phillies and moved the division lead to five games with only four games left between the two team. The Phillies’ destiny is no longer in their own hands to win the NLE.

That being said, there is still enough baseball left that any cushion the Braves can create would be huge in their chances for taking back the NLE crown and potentially earn a first round bye in the playoffs via a two seed.

Grant Holmes did well in his last day game where he gave up zero runs last week, but he also gave up six earned runs in the start before that. Jesús Luzardo has been fantastic this year. The Braves need to tire him out because getting to the bullpen seems to be the key to the game.

Follow along in the comments. First pitch is at 1:05 EDT.

Lineup

Preview

For the fifth time in a week, the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs will face off against each other. After splitting a four game series at Wrigley Field, the two NL Central rivals return to American Family Field for their final series of the regular season.

The Brewers hold a comfortable seven game lead over the Cubs for the top spot in the division. Every single win the Crew gets in this series, drops their magic number to clinch down by two. The magic number currently sits at 12, which means it could drop all the way down to six by the end of this series. The magic number to clinch a playoff berth is five.

Milwaukee made a roster move prior to this Labor Day game, placing reliever Grant Anderson on the 15 day IL with right biceps inflammation. Right-hander Brandon Sproat was recalled from Triple-A to take his spot. Sproat will pitch out of the bullpen for now and will give the Crew some much needed length as they’ve had a string of short starts lately and are wrapping up a stretch of 16 consecutive days with a game.

Sproat talked with reporters prior to the game, saying, “I think the most important thing for me when I was down there (in Nashville) was just getting back to the person and player the Brewers traded for. Just get back to moving my body intentionally, working on the pitches, anywhere from the four seam to the cutter to the sweeper, whatever it might be.”

It was tough news for Grant Anderson, who has been a key piece of this bullpen, and was stretched out to 2.2 IP of work on Sunday on the second day of a back-to-back. Pat Murphy said pregame that there was no structural damage and they hope it’ll be minimum stint on the IL.

It’s also a needed day off for Jake Bauers as he continues to battle through bumps and bruises. Murphy would love to have him out there, but he’ll get Labor Day off. That means Andrew Vaughn gets the start at first base today and is batting cleanup. Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, and William Contreras will be the trio atop the order aiming to get on base ahead of Vaughn. Christian Yelich and Luis Lara will follow. Then Cooper Pratt, Garrett Mitchell, and Joey Ortiz will round out the bottom of the order. Mitchell will be starting in the 8th spot in the lineup for just the fourth time this season.

That is the lineup that will go against Cubs lefty Matthew Boyd, who has an 8-3 record and 4.05 ERA on the season. Boyd pitched against the Brewers on Tuesday last week and went 5.1 IP, allowing seven hits and three runs in the Crew’s 9-4 victory. On the Crew’s side, Robert Gasser gets the start. Gasser also started Tuesday’s game last week and went 4.1 IP, allowing three hits and two earned runs. Even though he was pulled in the middle of the 5th inning, Pat Murphy gave Gasser some words of encouragement and told him he pitched well. The Brewers played some rough defense behind him in that game.

Gasser will face a potent Cubs lineup once again, starting with the leadoff hitter Pete Crow-Armstrong, who is the leading NL MVP candidate. He’ll be followed by Seiya Suzuki and Alex Bregman atop the order. Old friend Tyrone Taylor is batting cleanup, followed by Nico Hoerner and Matt Shaw. Carson Kelly, BJ Murray, and Pedro Ramirez round out the bottom of the order for Chicago.

This is the Cubs’ last best chance to make a dent in this division race. They’ll be hungry. The Brewers need to be equally hungry to keep them at bay and win a fourth consecutive division title.

Slugging Cincinnati Reds 3B Eugenio Suárez is known to be one of baseball’s most streaky hitters, one who jumps up to provide weeks at a time of prodigious power that can carry a single lineup. That’s why the Reds brought him back to their roster for 2026 on a $15 million deal, after all – their mostly punchless lineup needed a big bat to bolster their chances at a second straight postseason run.

Problem is, Geno got hurt early on. An oblique strain sent him to the shelf for longer than anything else in his career has been able to pull off, and that paired with an absent spring training (while on duty with Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic) has made for an overall dismal season for their long-time star.

All of that paired with slipping defense at 3B meant Geno went nowhere at the August 3rd trade deadline this summer. Cincinnati held on to him, presumably because there simply were not enough offers (if any), and they even chose to place him on waivers at the end of August as the deadline for teams to add players who’d be eligible for their postseason rosters came, and went.

Nobody claimed Geno. The roughly $3 million left on his contract was simply too much for the gamble.

Geno sat idle on August 3rd as the deadline came, went, and he still had a Cincinnati Reds uniform in his locker. He suited up in said uni on August 4th, and he’s been precisely the kind of Geno the Reds hoped they’d get all year ever since.

In 30 games (119 PA) since the Reds couldn’t find a suitor for him at the deadline, Geno has hit a robust .234/.378/.511 (.889 OPS) with 7 homers, 23 ribbies, and a 19/33 K/BB. Yeah, he’s still striking out like the guy who swings and misses more often than anyone in the sport, but that’s just who he’s become over the last decade while socking dingers at a rate not seen across the sport (non-Judge edition). He’s even added an eye, though, as those walks and OBP demonstrate.

Sadly, it hasn’t been enough to help the ol’ Reds enough, however. The Reds went into their August 3rd day off 5 games under the .500 mark, and they woke up today, September 7th, at 5 games under the .500 mark, too. That’s not on Geno this time around, though, as his bat woke up just like everyone knew it eventually would.

I do think it’s likely annoying enough to at least a handful of MLB execs across the league who thought picking up Geno on the cheap would be a bargain down the stretch and, for whatever reasons, got out-voted in the final decision-making process.

It won’t be enough to carry the Reds to a miracle finish like the 2021 St. Louis Cardinals, surely, but it would make for an entertaining end to an otherwise moribund Reds campaign in 2026 if Geno found a way to go nuclear for the final three weeks, too.

It being Labor Day, I’m going to do these lineups with the minimum amount of work in support of the comrades who got us here. How this differs from my normal lineups routine is unknown at this time. We will not be doing the work to investigate as such for reasons already explained. To the grilled meats we go.

1901
With a three-game lead in the race for the pennant, the White Sox hosted the second place Boston Americans at South Side Park in the start of a four-game set. A three-run rally in the fourth, fueled by one of Herm McFarland’s two doubles on the day, led to a 4-1 win. Nixey Callahan went the distance on the mound for the winners, tossing a five-hitter and doubling in the effort.

The White Sox would go on to sweep the Americans, extending their lead in the pennant race to seven games and pushing their magic number into single digits.

1954
One of the linchpins of the famed White Sox pitching staff of the late 1950’s, Dick Donovan, was purchased from Double-A Atlanta in the Milwaukee Braves organization. Dickwould win 73 games in six seasons on the South Side, including a pair of one-hitters and an All-Star appearance in 1955.

1960
In a game at Comiskey Park, infielder Sammy Esposito booted a cinch double-play ball hit by future Sox infielder Bill Skowron with the Sox leading in the eighth inning, 4-2. The lead quickly evaporated, as the Yankees rallied for four runs and a 6-4 win. 

Fans Willie Harris and his friend, Jesse James (I swear, I’m not making the names up), had a wager on the game. When Esposito blew the ground ball, Harris took matters into his own hands. He jumped over the box seat railing, ran on to the field, and had words with Esposito. Then the two started throwing punches! It took several uniformed police officers and ushers to pull Harris off of Esposito. Harris left the field shouting that he was “A real Sox fan.”

1970
The White Sox were swept by the A’s in a Monday doubleheader at Comiskey Park, in front of 6,115 fans. As the losses dropped Chicago to 49-92 on the season, the sweep was not remarkable. But what was? That with September’s expanded rosters, the Pale Hose used 13 players and five pitchers in the 7-4 opening loss, and 16 players and seven pitchers in the 7-5 nightcap loss. The 41 total players in a doubleheader set a major league record.

Coincidentally, the White Sox played 20 doubleheaders in the 106-loss 1970 season, losing 13 of them and splitting seven — a 7-33 record in twinbills alone! The team’s doubleheader winning percentage of .175 was roughly twice as bad as its overall .346 winning percentage. Or put another way, remove doubleheaders in 1970, and the White Sox played at a much-improved, 65-win pace.

1974
In one of the earliest deployments of a radar gun during an MLB game, White Sox reliever Terry Forster was recorded as throwing 94.9 mph from the Anaheim Stadium press box. In the same contest, Angels starter Nolan Ryan was clocked at 100.8 mph marking the second-ever triple digit reading (Ryan had hit 100.9 mph on August 20 at Anaheim Stadium.) White Sox rookie Jack Kucek, the opposing starter in the game, was twice recorded at 90.4 mph.

Forster’s fastball, tame by today’s standards, stood as the seventh-fastest pitch ever recorded. Kucek’s ranked 16th.

The White Sox lost the game, 3-1.

2008
Don Gutteridge, who had the misfortune of timing his only MLB manager stint with the downfall of the White Sox in the late 1960s, died in the town he was born, Pittsburg, Kan. He was such a hero in Pittsburg that, similar to the treatment that Easton, Pa. gives to Hall-of-Famer Harold Baines, the town declared Gutteridge’s birthday on June 19 to be Don Gutteridge Day every year.

Gutteridge was an 12-year MLB infielder, playing for both the St. Louis Cardinals and Browns. After his playing career, Gutteridge spent almost 20 years in the White Sox organization as a minor league manager and first-base coach under manager Al Lopez.

Gutteridge took over in 1968, when Lopez resigned due to poor health. In managing the bulk of 1968-69, he led the White Sox to a 109-172 record. That mark is the eighth-worst of 44 managers in White Sox history, and the fifth-worst among those to have skippered at least one season’s worth of games.

Among the 10 oldest living players when he passed, Gutteridge died exactly 72 years from his major league debut with the Cardinals in 1936.

2017
With an 11-2 win at the White Sox, Cleveland sets a new franchise record of 15 consecutive wins. Starting pitcher Mike Pelfrey gave up three of the visitors’ five longballs.

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Big slate Monday! There is so much to get into with the MLB player propsmarket today.

Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Monday, Sept. 7, including why Rafael Devers is going to light up Michael McGreevy.

Our best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Emmet Sheehan	Over 1.5 earned runs	-150
Rafael Devers	Over 1.5 total bases	+110
Jo Adell	Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI	-102

Emmet Sheehan Over 1.5 earned runs (-150)

For those moaning and groaning about the $1.50 price tag, we’re simply asking the Cincinnati Reds to do what they’ve done all season long, and that's score two runs in the first five innings. The Reds are averaging 2.51 runs in the first five frames this season.

Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Emmet Sheehan has faced some turbulence over his last three outings, posting an 8.31 ERA while allowing a 15% barrel rate to opposing hitters. He enters Monday with the sixth-worst pitcher rating, drawing three elite-rated hitters and three with strong ratings, per Batters-Box.

The Reds have been on a tear over their last six games, posting a 132 wRC+, .366 wOBA, and .833 OPS while generating plenty of hard-hit balls.

We’re simply asking this red-hot team to sneak past two runs before Sheehan is pulled. 

• Time: 9:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CIN, SNLA

Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases (+110)

I'm going back to Rafael Devers after he failed to come through on his hits + runs + RBI prop on Sunday. He did rip a single that came off the bat at over 107 mph, though. Hopefully, the San Francisco Giants slugger can elevate that ball over the wall this evening, or at least into the gap, as we take his total bases prop.

Devers owns the second-highest matchup rating on the day, covering over 87% of St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Michael McGreevy's pitch mix. The last 30 left-handed hitters McGreevy has faced are generating a 13% barrel rate and 30.4% ground-ball rate while owning a .282 xBA and .473 SLG.

The big fella has maintained a .923 SLG and .538 ISO while producing a near-70% hard-hit rate and 27% barrel rate over his last 10 games.

Take this down to +100, or take his Over 1.5 HRR prop if you find a price below -130.

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBC/Peacock

Jo Adell Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-102)

Lefty killer and Cleveland Guardians slugger Jo Adell finds himself in a mouthwatering spot against Baltimore Orioles southpaw Trevor Rogers. Over his last 30 at-bats against left-handed pitching, Adell has a .560 SLG and .280 ISO while posting a 47% hard-hit rate and nearly 12% barrel rate.

Over Rogers' last 60 plate appearances against right-handed hitters, he is allowing 1.80 HR/9 with just a 35% ground-ball rate, while those hitters have posted a .363 xBA and .596 xSLG.

Adell is the highest-rated Guardian in both of Batters-Box's datasets, where he covers more than 67% of Rogers' arsenal and goes Over this prop nearly 54% of the time. On the road, he's cashed this prop 57.14% of the time across 21 elite ratings.

Take this down to -110.

• Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CLEG, MASN

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The Mets are turning to Jonah Tong to start today’s game against the Miami Marlins, recalling him from Triple-A Syracuse. In a corresponding move, Justin Hagenman was optioned to Triple-A following yesterday’s win over the Giants.

Today will be Tong’s fourth appearance of the season for the big league club, after making a bullpen appearance against the Marlins back in May, and then making two appearances behind an opener before being demoted back to Syracuse.

The first two of those appearances were fairly well, going six and two-thirds innings without allowing an earned run while striking out three and walking five. The walks and lack of length are obvious red flags, but both appearances kept the Mets in their respective games. His third appearance, where he last just three and a third innings while giving up five runs, was decidedly not good.

After a mostly rough year, Tong has looked much, much better in his last two starts, going 12 and 2/3rds innings, allowing four hits, no earned runs, four walks, and nine strikeouts.

Hagenman made two appearances for the Mets after being called up last week, opening the September 2nd game against the Rays and going three innings, walking one, striking out two, and allowing one earned run, and then pitching an inning of relief against the Giants on Saturday, where he was tagged for a solo home run.

It’s not just the A’s. Following his historic 60 HR season in 2025, who in their right mind would have predicted that Cal Raleigh would spend the first half of the 2026 batting .169/.271/.310? That same Raleigh appears to have shaken off the demons and is back to homering at his 2025 pace lately, with a .490 slugging percentage since the All-Star break. What do you make of that in terms of projecting what to expect in 2027?

The A’s have been there twice very recently. Lawrence Butler was so good in the second half of 2024, batting .300/.345/.553, 155 wRC+, that the A’s rewarded this “breakout star” with a 7 year, $65.5M extension. Butler proceeded to stumble to a .234 BA and 91 wRC+ in 2025 in a season that, perhaps not coincidentally, ended early due to knee surgery.

But 2026 started out even worse than the year before. For the first half of the season Butler was literally the worst player in MLB by some measures as his average languished around .160 and his defensive stats cratered. There were some signs of life mid-season when Butler hit into some bad luck, lining into more than his fair share of outs, but nothing predicted he would revert back to his 2024 form.

Since the All-Star break, Butler is hitting .284/.366/.488 and consistently grinding out some of the best plate appearances on the team, spitting on close pitches off the plate even with 2 strikes and enjoying a career best 11.9% BB rate for the season.

What Butler is doing is known as “pulling a Gelof”. A rising star when he took the league by storm for a half season in 2023, Gelof then started a downward spiral that produced a disappointing 2024 followed by a disastrous 2025. Just when you wrote him off … like Lazarus he rose, only unlike Lazarus he can play above average defense at 2B, 3B, LF, CF, and RF. The super-utility man has 2.0 fWAR in just 93 games in 2026 and suddenly he looks like a core piece again.

Baseball is, as we know, that most unpredictable of games and nowhere is this seen more than in the bizarre highs and lows that often describe the same player in the same stretch of his career. How do you shrewdly plan your depth chart when the range of outcomes for a player so reasonably appears to be “somewhere between All-Star and DFA candidate”?

Case in point: Henry Bolte. Here are Bolte’s wRC+ stats month by month in his maiden voyage:

May: 99 wRC+
June: 111 wRC+
July: 27 wRC+
August: 124 wRC+
Sept: 200 wRC+

Now in Bolte’s case, those extremes are a bit more expected since it’s his first go-around and he’s only 23. But projecting “what you have” in Bolte, in terms of being an every day CFer on a contending team, is only as easy as figuring out what you will probably get from Butler and Gelof yesterday and tomorrow.

With Tyler Soderstrom, Bolte, and soon Devin Taylor in the mix, the A’s need to assess who “the real Lawrence Butler” is. With Joshua Kuroda-Grauer, Jacob Wilson, and soon Leo De Vries joining, the A’s need to assess who the “real Zack Gelof” is.

Just like the Mariners wonder who Cal Raleigh truly is, and many other teams have similar conundrums trying to make sense of their own bi-polar players. Good luck figuring it out in that most unpredictable game of baseball.

Mets lineup

1. Francisco Lindor – SS
2. Juan Soto – DH
3. Bo Bichette – 3B
4. Carson Benge – RF
5. Marcus Semien – 2B
6. A.J. Ewing – CF
7. Francisco Alvarez – C
8. Brett Baty – 1B
9. Nick Morabito – LF

Jonah Tong – RHP

Marlins lineup

1. Kyle Stowers – DH
2. Heriberto Hernández – LF
3. Griffin Conine – 1B
4. Otto López – SS
5. Jakob Marsee – CF
6. Javier Sanoja – 2B
7. Owen Caissie – RF
8. Graham Pauley – 3B
9. Joe Mack – C

Eury Pérez – RHP

Broadcast info

First pitch: 1:10pm EDT
TV: SNY
Radio: Audacy Mets Radio WHSQ 880AM, Audacy App, 92.3 HD2

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The Toronto Blue Jays look to get back into the win column tonight when they enter their series opener against the Athletics at Sutter Health Park as -210 favorites.

Dylan Cease gets the ball for the Jays, which is the major reason why my Blue Jays vs. Athletics predictions and MLB picks are high on Toronto.

Blue Jays vs A's predictions

Blue Jays vs A's best bet: Blue Jays -1.5 (-115)

Dylan Cease has been in the AL Cy Young conversation all season, but he’s been on another level in the second half. 

Since July 1, the Toronto Blue Jays ace leads all MLB starters in ERA (1.36) while also ranking second in xERA (2.37) and seventh in K/9 (11.47).

On the other side, Jacob Lopez has been solid for the Athletics (3.40 xERA; 79th percentile), but he’s averaging less than five innings per appearance. He’ll be backed up by the worst bullpen in the majors (5.45), which is where the Blue Jays can do their damage.

Play the Jays run line up to -120.

COVERS INTEL: Dylan Cease throws his slider nearly 30% of the time and has finished off 86 of his 221 strikeouts with that pitch. The Athletics have the seventh-lowest average (.207) and sixth-most strikeouts (237) vs. that pitch type from righties.

Blue Jays vs A's same-game parlay (SGP)

Cease is third in the majors with 221 Ks this season and has recorded at least eight punchouts in 14 of his last 19 starts.

Kazuma Okamoto has been mashing vs. left-handed pitching since Aug. 1 and will enjoy the platoon advantage today. Okamoto leads the Jays in SLG (.684) and OPS (1.056) vs. southpaws over that span, with nine of his 11 hits being for extra bases.

Blue Jays vs A's SGP

• Blue Jays -1.5
• Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 total bases
• Dylan Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts

Blue Jays vs A's home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+325)

I’m sticking with Okamoto for today’s home run pick as the matchup is too good to ignore.

Okamoto has hit a team-leading eight home runs vs. left-handed pitching — twice as many as anyone else on the Blue Jays.

He’s also hit eight of his 28 dingers vs. the slider, which Lopez throws more than one-third of the time.

Blue Jays vs A's odds

• Moneyline: Toronto -210 | A's +170
• Run line: Toronto -1.5 (-115) | A's +1.5 (-105)
• Over/Under: Over 8 (-120) | Under 8 (+100)

Blue Jays vs A's trend

The Athletics have only covered the run line in 18 of their last 50 home games for -18.90 units and a -31% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. A's.

How to watch Blue Jays vs A's and game info

Blue Jays vs A's latest injuries

Blue Jays vs A's weather

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The bulk of this road trip has been a journey through teams who’ve had surprising season relative to the preseason predictions. Certainly, the San Francisco Giants were not expected to be a laughingstock in global professional sports, but their opponents — Pittsburgh, the Mets, and now the Cardinals — were expected to be the opposite of where they actually stand. The Pirates were maybe not expected to be a fringe Wild Card contender for most of the summer, the Mets were projected to be quite a bit better than abject losers, and the St. Louis Cardinals were expected to be a losing team in a step back/reset season. Instead, they’re .500 and 4 games out of the 3rd Wild Card as the Giants host them to kickoff the week.

Now, maybe the reason for this quasi-competitiveness is that the playoff field has been expanded to participation trophy-levels of teams, lowering the bar for entry, but there are meaningful developments in the organization to show that they’re actually a solid team.

If you recall, their long-time front office leader John Mozeliak (who was in the Cards’ organization for thirty years) “retired” after last season and in the year prior to that, he was shadowed by former Boston President of Baseball Operations Chaim Bloom who took over for him beginning this year. Bloom was tasked with doing, essentially, what Farhan Zaidi had to do when he took over from Bobby Evans: rebuild the organization from the ground up. One key difference was that the team had some good talent in the player development pipeline and an ownership group with no rules about who could be traded to assist with a rebuild.

So, Bloom was able to purge the major league roster of some big contracts for quality players and some arbitration-eligible players that most other teams might’ve held onto to be a part of their next good team (specifically, second baseman Brendan Donovan). The implementation of new systems and practices either explain or coincided with some nice steps forward with the young talent the Cardinals already had on hand. For most people who don’t believe in “analytics,” they’ll probably believe the latter explanation most; but, in any case, it’s undeniable that 23-year old JJ Wetherholt exploded onto the scene and was a contender for NL Rookie of the Year most of the season. 24-year old outfielder Jordan Walker had shown a lot of promise (he debuted at 21!) but this season has been his breakout (28 home runs, 100 RBI in 140 games & 601 PA).

What’s wacky, though, is that the Cardinals have not improved, statistically. Right now, they have a team wRC+ of 97. They ended last season at 96. They have a team ERA of 4.33 ERA right now (11.3 fWAR in value) and were at 4.30 and 12.8 last season. Through 144 games this season, they’re 72-72. Through 144 games last season, they were… 72-72 and 4-and-a-half games out of a Wild Card spot (reminder: the Giants were 72-71 exactly 1 year ago). So, are the Cardinals actually better or does it just feel like they are? Well, these next 18 games will decide. Last year, the Cards went 6-12 from this point. They might not make the postseason, but improving on that mark will certainly be a step in the right direction, considering how much they remade the roster without actually setting up it with the intention to be great.

It’s not a perfect roster, of course. Masyn Winn might just be a defensive guy rather than a total player (.641 OPS in 490 PA but +2.3 fWAR thanks to his defense). Nolan Gorman hasn’t quite panned out at third base. The pitching staff is very much a work in progress. But, despite not being totally good, it is, overall, encouraging.

The Giants can’t say quite the same thing. They pushed in all their chips once again and busted once again. Now, it’s worth considering that Farhan Zaidi and Chaim Bloom are contemporaries and for a time, their careers were paralleling each other. Bloom was able to go from the Rays to the Red Sox and land on a Cardinals team open to revitalization. Zaidi went from the A’s to the Dodgers to the Giants, a team that was open to revitalization at the time. Zaidi’s tenure didn’t work out and now the org has oversteered itself back to the 1980s. Will Bloom prove himself to be the better exec with a stronger revitalization of the Cardinals or is that generation of GM destined to flame out and cause owners across the sport to reconsider the Moneyball 2.0 generation? Certainly, dudes like Zaidi and Mike Elias in Baltimore are helping to make that case.

But while the Cardinals have enjoyed 5 months of young players proving themselves, the Giants are starting to enjoy a similar outcome in some areas of the 28-man roster. Since returning to the roster on August 14th, Jona Cox has hit .298/.355/.509 (.864 OPS) in 20 games (62 PA) with a trio of homers, a double, a triple, and 5 stolen bases in 6 attempts. Granted, he’s struck out 21 times against just 5 walks, but he’s a young 25 and not the typical old 27 the Giants have thrown at the wall at ends of failed seasons (with all due respect to Turner Hill). Bryce Eldridge has been nearly as good since August 1st: .288/.380/.450 (.830 OPS) with 4 homers, 6 doubles, and 32 strikeouts against 17 walks.

The Giants will probably be replacing their entire pitching staff over the next couple of seasons, as we have to assume that Logan Webb is closer to washed than not, but now that the Giants have completed five years without a winning season and have had just 1 in their last 10, I think we can dispense with the “next year will be the year!” thinking. This is a long-term project where most of the principles are still learning what they don’t know. Bloom’s year of shadowing is certainly one of the best ways to go about a rebuild and it’s too bad more organizations don’t do that. In the reporting of Posey’s takeover, there wasn’t a story that showed he was doing exactly that. It was more that he was hanging around and “getting the gist” of it before making his pitch to become POBO. But Bloom has been able to make it appear that the Cardinals aren’t stuck in a long-term rebuild. That might not actually be the case (depending on how this season shakes out, first and foremost), but vibes matter and the Cards’ vibes are considerably better today than they were expected to be a year ago.

The Giants cannot say the same.

This is another series where a Computer Team will take on the anti-Computer Squad of the San Francisco Giants. Usually, the Computer Teams rip the Giants in half like the mother alien did to Bishop in Aliens, but this is the last leg of a long road trip for a weird west coast trip for the Cards that began at Dodger Stadium then went to Coors Field and now ends in Oracle Park. On the other hand, that trip to Coors Field involved one of the most racist outbursts on a major league field this century, when umpire Doug Eddings stopped the game to demand that rookie Cardinals pitcher Hancel Rincon adjust his crooked cap, then had the gall to say it was Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman who had made the request (he hadn’t). The next day, both the Cardinals and the Rockies united to tilt their caps in solidarity with Rincon and as an f-you to Eddings.

Maybe that flash of solidarity helps the Cardinals fight through the fatigue. The Giants are in such disarray that they might just crumble in even the tiniest show of unity.

Series Overview

Who: San Francisco Giants (59-84) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (72-72)
Where: Oracle Park | San Francisco, California
When: Monday at 5:10pm PT, Tuesday at 6:45pm PT, Wednesday at 12:45pm PT
National broadcasts: NBC/Peacock (Monday)

Projected starters
Monday: Logan Webb (RHP 8-8, 4.21 ERA) vs. Michael McGreevy (RHP 6-9, 3.97 ERA)
Tuesday: Landen Roupp (RHP 8-13, 4.17 ERA) vs. Quinn Mathews (LHP 1-2, 4.38 ERA)
Wednesday: Blade Tidwell (RHP 0-2, 4.43 ERA) vs. TBD

Prediction time

Carson Seymour has allowed 14 home runs in 32 MLB appearances (43.75%) and yesterday, to up for all the games he hadn’t allowed a homer in this season, he allowed two. If he gets in to a game in this series, I predict he will allow a home run. Because that’s what he does.

We have three games with the ‘Insert town name here’ A’s.

The A’s are 57-78, 16 games back of Houston in the Al West and, “it doesn’t matter games” back in the Wild Card race. They need to go 6-12 in their last 18 games to save themselves from losing 100 games.

That doesn’t mean they can’t win a series. They are just off a four-game win streak.

They are eighth in the AL in runs per game, at 4.38 (Jays are second last at 4.03). And they are last in the AL in runs allowed per game, at 5.69 (the second last team are the Twins at 4.99, the Jays sixth in the AL at 4.29).

Starting pitchers:

• Tonight: Dylan Cease (10-5, 2.25 ERA) and Jacob Lopez (6-4, 4.71). A 10:00 Eastern start.
• Tomorrow: José Soriano (11-7, 3.52) and Jack Perkins (3-10, 6.50). A 9:40 Eastern start.
• Wednesday: TBD vs. TBD. It is a 3:00 Eastern start.

I’d don’t know what the Jays’ plans are. Someone from the minors? A bullpen day? Maybe it will depend on how much work the pen does in the first two games. People wonder why John wants to get an extra inning out of a starter who ‘doesn’t have it’ that day. We have really overworked the bullpen and that’s not going to slow down in the last three weeks of the season.

The A’s have gotten 696 innings our of their starters and 580 out of their relievers. The Jays have gotten 677 innings from the starters and 603.1 out of the reliever.

The A’s best two hitter, by bWAR, are on the IL.

• Nick Kurtz (1B) is out for the rest of the season with a “strained right thumb”. He was hitting .256/.396/.483 with 21 home runs and a 3.9 bWAR.
• Shea Langeliers (C) is out with a knee injury. He might be back at some point. He was hitting .263/.332/.497 with 23 homes runs and a 3.7 bWAR.

And Tyler Soderstrom is out after surgery on his hip. He was hitting .245/.338/.472 with 19 home runs and a 2.6 bWAR. Add in that Joshua Kurdoa-Grauer has a ruptured testicle.

As well, their top pitcher, J.T Ginn (9-8, 3.71, 3.3 bWAR) is out with right elbow impingemen.

That doesn’t mean there aren’t some good players:

• 3B Zack Gelof is hitting .257/.321/.468 with a 17 home runs and a 2.8 bWAR.
• CF Henry Bolte is hitting .274/.352/.386 with a 2.5 bWAR. He’s stolen 16 bases, caught 8 times so he maybe should stop trying.
• SS Alika (sounds like an anime character) Williams is hitting .273/.310/.438 with a 1.5 bWAR.

In the pen:

• Hogan Harris is their closer. He has a 3.38 ERA with 15 saves, with 6 blown saves.
• Luis Medina has a 3.53 ERA and 10 holds.
• Elvis Alvarado has a 4.21 ERA and 9 holds.

Let’s have a poll:

September started out roughly with two losses in a row to the St. Louis Cardinals, one a blowout and another a blown lead. Things could have gone very badly in the first week of the month, but the Dodgers won their final four games of the week, including a sweep of the Washington Nationals for a winning week.

Three of the wins were thanks to late turnarounds, as the Dodgers trailed in the ninth inning on Thursday but beat St. Louis, then overcame deficits in the seventh and eighth innings against Washington on Saturday and Sunday.

All four wins came without Shohei Ohtani, who got his first extended rest since joining the Dodgers, battling a few injuries. Ohtani is expected back in the lineup on Monday.

Batter of the week

Mookie Betts hit a three-run home run to turn around Sunday night’s game in the eighth inning, but his imprints were all over the week, with two home runs, three doubles, 11 RBI, and a tidy 1.168 OPS.

Honorable mention goes to Tommy Edman and Teoscar Hernández, who each had OPSs over 1.000 and each had game-winning hits during the streak.

Pitcher of the week

Blake Snell continued his solid run since returning from the injured list, tossing six more scoreless innings on Friday to beat the Washington Nationals. Snell struck out seven and since getting activated on August 11 has 38 strikeouts in 29 innings and only three runs allowed in his five starts.

Week 24 results

4-2 record
35 runs scored (5.83 per game)
36 runs allowed (6.00 per game)
.487 pythagorean win percentage

Year to date

86-57 record
705 runs scored (4.93 per game)
553 runs allowed (3.87 per game)
.609 pythagorean win percentage (87-56)

Miscellany

Unique score!: The Dodgers opened the month with a drubbing at the hands of the Cardinals on Tuesday, which ended in a 13-8 score that seemed unfamiliar. That instinct was correct, as September 1 marked the first time the Los Angeles Dodgers ever had a game end 13-8, win or lose. The previous 13-8 game in franchise history came 70 years ago, when Brooklyn beat the New York Yankees in Game 2 of the 1956 World Series.

CT3 returns: Before Wednesday night’s game against the Cardinals, Chris Taylor received his 2025 championship ring from his former teammates. Taylor coaxed his two-year-old son Theo to throw out the ceremonial first pitch to him, and did so adorably so. Taylor, who retired in May, played 10 of his 12 major league seasons with the Dodgers.

“It’s pretty much what I identify my career as. Over 90 percent of my career was in Dodger blue. This is the place I call home. I’m always proud to be a Dodger” Taylor said. “This night means a lot that they would even do this for me. I’m extremely humbled.”

Transactions

Tuesday: On the first day of September, Will Smith and Dalton Rushing were activated off the injured list, as was Justin Wrobleski, and Alex Freeland was called up from Oklahoma City. The net additions of one position player and one pitcher also included Ben Rortvedt getting designated for assignment and Alek Thomas optioned to Triple-A.

Wednesday: Blake Treinen returned after two and a half months on the injured list, left-hander Eric Lauer was placed on the IL after his worst start as a Dodger, and Will Klein was moved to the 60-day IL, ending his regular season.

Thursday: Rortvedt cleared waivers and was sent outright to Triple-A.

Saturday: Bobby Miller was activated off the 60-day injured list to provide length in the bullpen, Kyle Hurt was optioned, and Thomas was designated for assignment.

Sunday: After going through throwing drills on Saturday, Rushing landed back on the IL with elbow discomfort. Catcher Eliezer Alfonzo was called back up from Oklahoma City.

Game results

• Tuesday: Cardinals 13, Dodgers 8
• Wednesday: Cardinals 8, Dodgers 6 (10 innings)
• Thursday: Dodgers 3, Cardinals 2
• Friday: Dodgers 5, Nationals 3
• Saturday: Dodgers 6, Nationals 5
• Sunday: Dodgers 7, Nationals 5

Previous reviews: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 | no reviews for Weeks 14-15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Week 18 | Week 19 | Week 20 | Week 21 | Week 22 | Week 23

Up next

The Dodgers run the Chris Hammond gauntlet, finishing up the homestand with a series against the Reds followed by a trip to South Beach to face the Marlins.

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The Cincinnati Reds open a three-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight, and mounting injuries for the world champs are evening out what looks like a mismatch on paper. 

L.A. had three scratches from the lineup over the weekend, and had to call up the struggling Emmet Sheehan to make a spot start today.

My Reds vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks have Cincinnati scoring a road upset with Reds All-Star ace Chase Burns on the bump on Monday, Sept. 7.

Who will win Reds vs Dodgers today: Reds moneyline (39%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

On paper, it makes sense to favor the Los Angeles Dodgers. They’re 17 games better and have won four straight.

However, Shohei Ohtani has missed four straight games with knee, biceps, and neck injuries. He should return today, but Ohtani was just seven for his last 51 (.137) with one homer in the last 13 games.

The Dodgers also lost catcher Dalton Rushing, placed back on the IL Sunday, and Max Muncy was a late scratch Saturday before returning Sunday.

The Cincinnati Reds, meanwhile, have won three straight series and start ace Chase Burns (15-3, 2.79 ERA). 

I’d take them down to 43%.

COVERS INTEL: Burns’ slider has his breaking stuff in the 99th percentile in MLB. Opponents are hitting .162 against it. Every major contributor in L.A.’s lineup has above a 25% whiff rate against the slider.

Reds vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (51%)

The Reds announced that they will be limiting Burns’ innings for the rest of the season, so expect the Cincinnati bullpen (25th by xERA) to step in earlier than usual. 

The Dodgers, meanwhile, didn’t name their starter until Monday morning, when they called up Emmet Sheehan (4-8, 5.29 ERA). He was demoted earlier this year after the team lost five of his starts in a row.

The Reds have scored 31 runs in the last four games, and that was against first-place Milwaukee and over-.500 San Diego. They’ve also allowed 24 over that span. They’ve gone Over seven times in the last 10 and scored seven or more in six of them.

Reds vs Dodgers home run prediction: Mookie Betts (14%)

Mookie Betts has five hits in the last 13 at bats and went deep on Sunday. He’s also L.A.’s second-best hitter against the slider.

His .273 average and .444 slugging against breaking pitches this season are better than his performance against fastballs (.246/.442) and offspeed (.200/.291).

He has a double and two hits in three career plate appearances against Burns.

Reds vs Dodgers market report

Here is how Polymarket traders are handling tonight's Reds vs. Dodgers matchup:

Reds vs Dodgers weather

Rain earlier in the day will be gone by game time, and it should be partly cloudy in the low 80s, possibly dropping into the 70s by last pitch.

Reds vs Dodgers odds

• Moneyline: Reds 39% | Dodgers 61%
• Run line: Reds +1.5 | Dodgers -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Reds vs Dodgers trend

The Over is 6-1 in Cincinnati’s last seven road games against teams with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Reds vs Dodgers and game info

Reds vs Dodgers latest injuries

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