Category: MLB

The Atlanta Braves suffered a disappointing loss in yesterday’s match-up against the San Diego Padres during extra innings. Martín Pérez is looking to help the team bounce back to split the series.

Braves pitching has seen its struggles as of late. The bullpen is scarce, and the starters are hitting a continuous rough spot. Holding a 6-3 record this season, along with a 2.78 ERA, Pérez has the potential to turn it around, but will need to rely on a consistent stint early if he wants to get ahead of the Padres.

In his last outing against the Milwaukee Brewers, Pérez went through six innings, and though he allowed six hits, he only gave up one run and had five strikeouts in the day’s win.

It might be that time in the season where the Bullpen comes in clutch while the starting rotation figures things out. Only time will tell. The objective is to get a head start in rattling the offense, especially when the Padres climbed their way back into contention last night. They see what’s possible, and will want to run it back. If Pérez can make a statement early and keep it going, he just might stop San Diego in their tracks.

As for the Padres, they have a bit of a wildcard stepping onto the mound for them. JP Sears was recently called up from Triple-A to take the place of Lucas Giolito due to injury.

Sears’ four-seamers touch the lower end of the 90s, and his current ERA is 7.92 in the minors. This could either be an opening for the Braves’ offense to pull off what they couldn’t in Tuesday’s matchup or give Sears the confidence to dominate if the bats decide to stay silent.

A showdown on the West Coast starts tonight at 8:40 p.m EDT.

Game Info

Game Time: Monday, June 24th, 8:40 pm EDT

Location: Petco Park, San Diego, Ga

Watch: Braves Vision

Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

The Texas Rangers scored two runs but the Miami Marlins scored four runs.

It was a Texas Rangers game in 2026 so saying “it was kind of an annoying game” should be assumed by default but today’s game was kind of annoying.

In addition to it beginning in the ante meridiem, which made it annoying by premise alone, the Rangers took a 1-0 lead in the top of the fourth with Jacob deGrom cruising only for the Marlins to suddenly start hitting everything exactly once Texas had that lead but only enough so that they took exactly a one-run lead that the Rangers never really threatened until it became too late.

Interestingly, the game became a little less annoying when Miami got to face baseball game Grim Reaper Cole Winn and tacked on a couple of insurance runs in the eighth. After all, there’s something comforting about the assurance of an outcome.

It did become a skosh more annoying when Joc Pederson hit a solo home run in the ninth, a run that would have tied the game had Winn’s name not become perpetually extremely ironic.

So the Rangers lost an annoying game to lose the series. At least we have the rest of our day.

Player of the Game: Wyatt Langford hit one to Hialeah to remain hot.

Up Next: The Rangers fly like 1200 miles to another country to play another game tomorrow so they’re probably grateful for today’s morning baseball. LHP MacKenzie Gore will start for Texas in the opener versus a pitcher to be named for the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Thursday evening first pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 6:06 pm CDT and will be viewable via the Rangers Sports Network.

As we all know, the Nationals need guys with louder stuff in the bullpen. They rank last in stuff+ and whiff rate among relievers. However, I think they have a potential solution sitting in their Triple-A rotation. Paul Toboni needs to unleash Luis Perales, and make him a high velocity bullpen arm.

Right now, the Nats are still trying to develop Perales as a starting pitcher. This offseason, they picked up Perales in a trade that sent Jake Bennett to the Red Sox. Right now, Bennett is pitching well in the big leagues, while Perales has a 4.42 ERA in AAA. Perales was viewed as the more raw, high upside arm of the pair, so it makes sense that he is a slower burn than Bennett.

However, I think they need to put pause on the starting experiment, and use Perales as a reliever. When you look at Luis Perales’ profile, it screams relief pitcher. He throws absolute gas, sitting at 98.4 MPH. Perales’ control and command really lag behind though. His 13% walk rate is problematic, and his inability to execute deep into games is cutting into his ability to generate strikeouts.

Perales is only 6 ‘0 tall and is coming off a Tommy John Surgery. All of this points to a future in the bullpen. However, I think Perales can be a good reliever, and make an impact fairly quickly. He has shown the ability to sit around 100 MPH in shorter bursts. Perales also has a few offspeed weapons. If he can simplify his approach, and throw a 4-seamer, cutter and changeup, he can be money.

In AAA, Perales has the best Stuff+ among starters. If you unleashed him in shorter bursts, I think that stuff would tick up even more. Perales needs to have extreme stuff because he is not getting batters out with command or execution like a Foster Griffin. The name of the game for him is blowing the ball by guys.

Another reason why I think Perales should get a big league shot before long is because he is already on the 40-man roster. This is also potentially his last option year, meaning he would have to stick in the big leagues next year. However, due to his long term injury last season, there is a pretty good chance that the Nats will receive an extra option year on Perales.

Regardless, they are going to need to get Perales acclimated to the MLB before too long. Right now, I do not think he has what it takes to be a starter. In the bullpen though, I think Perales has a chance to be a real weapon. He is also exactly what the Nats need from a profile perspective.

The Nats have a lot of funky, deceptive guys in the bullpen, like PJ Poulin, Brad Lord and Richard Lovelady. However, they do not have a guy who can throw 100 MPH. Luis Perales could change that, and light up radar guns at Nats Park.

After last night, where the Nats bullpen imploded and Perales had another lackluster start in AAA, I think the transition should happen immediately. If I were in Paul Toboni’s shoes, I would take Perales out of the rotation and get him used to the bullpen for a few weeks, and then add him to the big league roster.

The bullpen is Perales’ long term home most likely, and we need to get him used to being a reliever. He will need to learn things like going back to back days, and optimizing his pitch mix to be a reliever. I think it would be better to teach him that, then letting the flame thrower continue to struggle as a starter.

Even if you put him in the bullpen, that does not mean he has to be a reliever forever. Garrett Crochet, Chris Sale and Clay Holmes all spent time as relievers, and are now very good starting pitchers. We are seeing relievers convert to starters now more than ever.

The Yankees were in a similar spot with their flamethrowing prospect Carlos Lagrange, and recently moved him to the bullpen. For the Yankees, their idea is likely to get him used to the role and have him ready to be a factor for a playoff race. With the Nats also in the playoff hunt, they should be trying to do the same sort of thing. 

The Nats are a competitive team that needs bullpen help. It is time for Paul Toboni to act that way, and use every avenue he can to improve the bullpen. Obviously, the trade market is one way to do that, but converting a guy like Perales to the bullpen is another solution. These bullpen meltdowns are unacceptable, and it is time for drastic measures.

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Welcome in to Wednesday's starting pitcher props & best bets for June 24!

We are attacking pitchers from all angles today, targeting strikeout Overs, Unders, and walk props across the MLB player props board.

There are a handful of intriguing spots on this slate, so let’s dig in and find some winners, anchored by the Rhett Lowder walk prop.

Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today

Player	Pick	Odds
Jose Soriano	Over 6.5 strikeouts	-107
Matthew Liberatore	Under 3.5 strikeouts	-152
Rhett Lowder	Over 2.5 walks	+127

Strikeout prop: Jose Soriano Over 6.5 strikeouts (-107)

I miss when Los Angeles Angels starter Jose Soriano was in the Cy Young odds conversation, but that ship has seemingly sailed.

Still, he finds himself in a solid spot to shove against the Baltimore Orioles, who have maintained a swing-happy offense all season long.

Over their last six games, the Orioles carry a 27% strikeout rate. Over the last 12, that number sits at 26.7%. According to Batters-Box, this lineup features nine bats above the league strikeout rate in the current season data.

Soriano has posted a 28% strikeout rate at home this season, along with a 30.7% called strike plus whiff rate. When sporting an elite rating, the right-hander clears 6+ strikeouts 50% of the time, and 7+ strikeouts 36.36% of the time.

• Time: 4:07 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ABTV, MASN

Strikeout prop: Matthew Liberatore Under 3.5 strikeouts (-152)

I am already fading Matthew Liberatore this evening by backing Ketel Marte in the MLB player prop picks, so why not also take a look at the Under on his strikeouts?

The Arizona Diamondbacks do not feature a single hitter above league average in strikeout rate per Batters-Box. Liberatore also draws one of the weakest matchup strikeout environments on the slate, ranking near the bottom in opponent K profile.

Even with Arizona showing a slight cold stretch overall, the strikeout numbers remain strong. They have stayed Under 18% in strikeout rate over their last six, 12, and 21-game samples. Against left handed pitching this season, they are sitting at just a 7.8% strikeout rate as a team.

This is a very strong contact profile against southpaws, which only reinforces the case to continue fading Liberatore in this spot.

• Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CARD, ARID

Walks prop: Rhett Lowder Over 2.5 walks (+127)

Yep, we're attacking your mom's favorite country singer, Rhett Lowder, as he finds himself in a vulnerable spot against one of the more patient offenses in baseball.

The Milwaukee Brewers own the second-highest walk rate on the road this season, sitting just north of 10%. Over their last 21 games, they rank first in baseball with a 10.7% walk rate.

This lineup also features seven hitters carrying at least a 7.7% walk rate over their last 60 at-bats against right-handed pitching.

On the other side, Lowder has battled command issues all season. Over his last five outings, he has handed out walks at nearly a 20% clip. While that number improves to 6.52% at home, he has still posted a 15.15% walk rate across his last three starts.

Hopefully the Brew Crew packed their best set of eyeballs for this one.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: BREW, CINR

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After a stellar walk-off victory on Monday, the Colorado Rockies stumbled to a 5-2 loss on Tuesday as the offense couldn’t quite get rolling against Sonny Gray. Now, with the series tied, the Rockies will try to snag another series win to close out the homestand.

Kyle Freeland (1-7, 7.36 ERA) will take the mound for the Rockies, looking to replicate the success of his previous start. Freeland cruised through seven scoreless innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates before coming out to pitch the eighth inning, where he ended up responsible for two runs. He allowed just four hits and struck out eight, including his 1,000th career punchout, while allowing no walks for the second straight start. Freeland has been a little bit more comfortable at home this season, sporting a 1-2 record along with a 6.32 ERA in 31.1 innings over six starts. As for his experience against the Red Sox, he has made two starts and allowed six runs on nine hits over 11.2 innings.

Ranger Suarez (3-3, 2.93 ERA) is scheduled to make the start for the Red Sox. The former Phillie standout has had mixed results in his first season in Boston, as he has battled a little bit of inconsistency between less-than-average starts and ace-like outings. However, has settled into a familiar form in June while staying effective overall. Over his three starts this month, Suarez has allowed just three runs over 18 innings with five walks and 18 strikeouts. His last outing came in Seattle, where he threw 6.2 shutout innings, allowing just one hit while striking out five and walking three, to bring his ERA under three. He owns a 2.43 ERA against the Rockies in seven appearances, including a 3.20 ERA in four appearances at Coors Field. As for facing right-handed batters, he has limited them to a .202 AVG as opposed to lefties, who are hitting .266 against him.

In roster news, the Rockies placed reliever Jaden Hill on the 15-day injured list with right shoulder tendinitis. Seth Halvorsen was recalled to take his spot.

First Pitch: 1:10 p.m. MDT

TV: Rockies.TV

Radio: 850 AM/94.1 FM KOA Rockies Radio Network; KNRV 1150 AM (Spanish)

Red Sox SB Nation Site: Over the Monster

Lineups:

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The Yankees offense has hit a bit of a rut of late, entering play Tuesday on the back of a three-game losing streak and four losses in their last five, the team scoring three or fewer runs in all of those losses. As such, there haven’t been many options to choose for At-Bat of the Week, meaning backup catcher Ali Sánchez earns his first nod in this series for his RBI double in the Yankees’ 5-3 series-opening loss against the Tigers on Monday.

We join Sánchez with two outs in the second inning facing Tigers’ southpaw and longtime playoff enemy with Houston Framber Valdez. José Caballero is on first after drawing a two-out walk, and his speed means that any hit that finds the outfield wall should be enough to open the scoring.

Valdez starts Sánchez with a first pitch sinker at 93, Dillon Dingler setting a target low and away.

Valdez misses his spot, grooving this sinker pretty much right down the middle. Sánchez gets off an excellent swing, but just underneath the pitch. You can tell he was right on time by the way he fouls this pitch straight back to the brickwork behind home.

Seeing how Sánchez was all over that pitch from a timing standpoint, Valdez immediately changes speeds to the changeup. Again, Dingler sets a target low and away hoping to play off the release point of the previous sinker and fool the hitter in both timing and movement.

Once again, Valdez pulls this pitch toward the zone. It ends up low and in instead of low and away, Sánchez at one point thinking he is going to get hit by the pitch. The changeup never looks like a strike during its entire path toward home, making for an automatic take from Sánchez.

Valdez switched away from the sinker after failing to execute, but interestingly sticks with the changeup despite the poor execution of the one we just saw.

This one is slightly better execution, but like the first pitch sinker is still in a very hittable zone for Sánchez middle-down. Sánchez once again gets off another impressive hack, but can’t sync his swing path to the downward movement of the pitch and tops it foul. It is worth noting that he was on time with his swing against both the sinker and changeup, so he must be seeing the ball well out of Valdez’s hand.

With the count at two strikes, and having slowed down Sánchez’s bat with the prior pair of changeups, Valdez climbs the ladder with the four-seamer looking to get the strikeout on a pitch above the zone. If he can locate the pitch close enough to the top of the zone, Sánchez should chase – the only fastball he has seen so far is a sinker, whereas the four-seamer drops ten inches less.

Instead, Valdez gets his release point all wrong, perhaps distracted by Caballero taking off for second base, and Sánchez has to dodge some high chin music.

Now that Caballero is standing on second, I wonder if Sánchez’s mindset changes here from looking to do damage to simply getting bat on ball trying to find the outfield grass.

Based on this swing against the curveball, it looks like Sánchez has shifted his approach away from trying to pull the ball in the air to more of an all-fields approach. It’s actually an impressive piece of hitting – you can tell Sánchez recognizes the pitch almost from the moment it leaves Valdez’s hand from the way he stays back on the pitch looking to drive it to the opposite field. He doesn’t miss a double down the right field line by all that much as he’s getting closer and closer to barreling the ball with each piece of contact he makes.

I wonder if Valdez is starting to feel uneasy having seen Sánchez make an on time swing against pitches in three distinct velocity bands: mid-90s on the fastball, mid-80s on the changeup, and mid-70s on the curveball. Watching Sánchez wait back on that curveball, it appears Valdez thinks he can now throw a fastball by him.

This is a hell of a take from Sánchez. The pitch looks like a strike on the outer half when it leaves Valdez’s hand, only for the 13 inches of arm-side movement to carry it off the plate away. In a split second, Sánchez diagnoses pitch type, recognizes location, and remembers the movement of the sinker away from him.

Once again, I am pretty surprised that Valdez opts for a changeup in this full count. It is his third-best pitch, and he missed his location with the first two he threw to Sánchez.

Indeed, he misses his location for a third time, this one the worst of the lot. He leaves this pitch right down Broadway, and Sánchez jumps all over it, grounding it hard through the hole on the left side to plate Caballero as the game’s opening run. I love how level Sánchez’s swing is here, allowing him to stay slightly more under control of his barrel while still getting off an A-swing.

Here’s the full AB:

It’s not often that I feature an AB from a losing effort on AB of the Week but frankly that speaks to the poor quality of ABs up and down the lineup for the better part of a week. Expectations for Sánchez are pretty tempered given he is effectively their third catcher. All you really want from him is a credible AB against righties and to do damage should he get a mistake he can handle, and he checked both those boxes with this encounter.

The Yankees desperately need better offensive production from the catcher position, Sánchez, Austin Wells, and J.C. Escarra combining to produce the third-worst wRC+ (53) of any team’s backstops. Perhaps that is why I have felt encouraged by the quality of at-bat exhibited by Sánchez over the last week. After looking downright overmatched in his initial exposure – no hits and a 50-percent strikeout rate in his first five games – Sánchez has turned things around to go 6-for-12 with two doubles, three RBIs, and a 243 wRC+ in his last five games. While that tiny sample size is certainly not prescriptive of future performance, it’s enough to earn more opportunities against lefty pitching whenever he returns from the paternity list (or possible injury).

The White Sox have a chance to sweep their division rivals after reclaiming first place from the Guardians after Tuesday’s win. The pitching matchups are fairly even, with Erick Fedde (2-6, 4.48 ERA) facing a struggling Tanner Bibee (2-8, 4.03 ERA). White Sox batters will need to be cognizant of Bibee’s strikeouts, however. While his pitching stats don’t seem anything special on paper, Bibee has punched out 78 batters on the season so far.

Chris Murphy will be used as an opener for Fedde in this afternoon’s contest. Sam Antonacci gets to lead it off today, and Kyle Teel is back behind the plate and batting cleanup. His season debut didn’t go well on Monday night, so hopefully he can bounce back and produce a few hits like we saw in Charlotte.

As mentioned above, Bibee excels at striking out batters. Cleveland always manages to put on pitching clinics, but at this moment in time, that’s all they really have. Bibee also has 40 earned runs on his tab, and has not had a lot of luck in his last seven games.

First pitch is at 1:10 p.m. CT. You can watch the game on CHSN or listen on ESPN Chicago 1000.

One of manager Mark Kotsay’s flaws has reared its ugly head more than usual of late, and that is a lack of understanding of who his relievers are, what they do well, and just as importantly what they do not do well. Sometimes you get away with “wrong move, right result” and often you do not.

A Costly Blunder

A devastating loss Sunday came when the A’s, poised to take the 3 of 4 they should against the last place Angels, served up 3 in the 7th and 2 in the 9th in a 9-7 gut-puncher.

The blunder came in the 7th inning when Kotsay had to select a reliever to start the inning with a 7-4 lead. He went with Hogan Harris, why? Kotsay has said Harris is “the reliever I trust the most” and also 2 of the 3 batters due up to start the inning batted LH.

Here’s the problem. While valuable and useful for his durability and competitiveness, Harris shouldn’t be the A’s most trusted reliever because he isn’t actually worthy of that moniker. No matter how you slice it, in 36 IP Harris has not only allowed 34 hits he has also walked 24 and hit 3 more.

It’s also foolish to bring in Harris, as Kotsay has repeatedly done, to try to neutralize LH batters because LH batters have a whopping .403 OBP against Harris. And even if you mistakenly believed Harris was a good choice to retire LH batters, that was rendered moot when Vaughn Grissom came up to pinch hit leading off the inning.

It should have come as no surprise that Harris, who issues a freebie of some kind 3 times every 4 innings, hit Grissom with a pitch to lead off the inning. Nolan Schanuel’s seeing eye single was bad luck, but again no shock that a LH batter got a hit off Harris considering they are batting .292 for the season against him. Then came the crippling 3-run HR by Denzer Guzman.

But it goes beyond choosing Harris because of unwarranted “trust”. Mason Barnett was available and while his long term prognosis is still blurred by small sample, you can’t argue with what he has done so far out of the bullpen: 13.2 IP, 7 hits, 1 ER, 7 BB, 18 K. And the lone run came on a solo HR when Barnett was pitching with a 10 run lead; in high leverage he has been nails.

Another Puzzler That Didn’t Cost

Last night once again Kotsay ignored the skill sets of his relievers in a close game. With the A’s trailing just 2-1 he asked Matt Krook to pitch the 5th, then sent him out to begin the 6th. This made sense with the LH batting Jung Hoo Lee leading off. Lee walked, however, and that brought up the RH batting Willy Adames.

By this time Mason Barnett was well warmed up in the bullpen, but for some reason Kotsay decided to stay with Krook. The problem? Check out Krook’s career body of work against RH batters over the 36 batters he has faced: .400/.472/.667.

Kotsay went to Barnett one batter later, and got lucky that it wasn’t “one batter too late” as Adames made solid contact but grounded out. One can imagine maybe Barnett was having trouble getting loose, wasn’t ready, etc., only that would also be on the manager if he didn’t use the top of the 6th to give his reliever ample warning he was going to be summoned in the bottom half.

The pattern you’re seeing is a manager who seems to think that Harris is a good choice against LH batters and a great choice for high leverage in general, that Krook can handle RH batters too, that Barnett is nothing special and can be burned for 2 IP in a blowout then not used in high leverage — none of which is true based on the actual stats, performances, available data and information.

If you don’t understand your own players, it’s hard to use them correctly. You wind up acting like Lawrence Butler is a capable CFer and that the AL’s RBI leader should bat lead off. The A’s just don’t have a strong enough bullpen to also be used improperly, and yet there you have it. And it’s costing the team actual wins they don’t have to give.

Luckily, Gage Jump is the type of pitcher who tends to make a manager look smart no matter what he does. Jump goes tonight in as close to a must-win as you’ll find in June as the A’s try to avoid losing contact with the .500 mark in a weak AL that still won’t send a sub-.500 team to the post-season. Here’s hoping Kotsay doesn’t yank him in the 3rd inning of a 0-0 game to play the platoon match ups.

Following yet another depressing loss in Petco Park for the Atlanta Braves, some changes have been made and there’s some good news as far as the bullpen is concerned. Tyler Kinley is back healthy after dealing with “right elbow inflammation” and has been reinstated from the 15-day IL as a result.

This is very big news and not just because of the fact that Kinley had been turning things around before his IL stint after a rough first on the mound. Ever since May 13, Kinley had produced a 2.45 ERA (59 ERA-) and a 3.56 FIP (87 FIP-) across the 12 appearances he made leading up to his IL stint. Getting Kinley back will be huge since the bullpen was starting to show some signs of wear. Due to Robert Suarez’s forearm issues, Carlos Carrasco ended up pitching two high-leverage innings and to be quite honest, that’s just not an ideal situation for the Braves in this particular moment in time. So yeah, getting Kinley back will be massive for a bullpen that has largely kept it pushing despite dealing with whatever woes may come their way.

Speaking of Carrasco, he’s going back on the DFA cycle following last night’s performance and he’s been subsequently replaced by Ian Hamilton. So far, Hamilton has pitched one inning for the Braves and it was back on April 21 when he gave up three runs on two hits and two walks, so I’d imagine that you can guess that the Braves are doing this simply to have another arm available until Cookie does his latest circuit on the DFA cycle and they can bring him back again.

Meanwhile, the corresponding move for Tyler Kinley was that JR Ritchie was sent back down to Triple-A Gwinnett following his efforts on Tuesday in San Diego. As admirably as Ritchie performed in getting through five innings in each of his past three starts, giving up five runs each to the Giants and Padres is certainly not conducive to success — especially in a situation where the Braves are badly in need of consistent and stable starting pitching. Ritchie did end up with seven strikeouts on the night but he also walked four and gave up five hits on his way to giving up those five runs (four earned) and it also came as a bit of a gut punch since it happened all in the frame immediately after Atlanta had score four runs, themselves.

So while Ritchie has shown some promise during his time with the Braves so far this season, it’s clear that he’s going to need a bit more work in the minors before this the big leagues becomes his permanent home station. For now, the Braves do get one of their more effective relievers back from the injury list so that’s one less thing to worry about for the time being. It’s one thing but it’s a big thing.

On Wednesday morning prior to their final game of three against the Boston Red Sox, the Colorado Rockies announced that they have placed right-handed reliever Jaden Hill on the 15-day injured list with right shoulder tendonitis.

Hill, 26, was originally selected in the second round of the 2021 draft as a starting pitcher. However, he was converted into a reliever for the 2024 season. He has since become a regular contributor in the Rockies bullpen after posting a solid 3.38 ERA in 28 appearances last season.

The Louisiana State University product started out strong this season. Through the end of May he had posted a 2.61 ERA with 23 strikeouts and just nine walks over 20.2 innings of work. Unfortunately, he has struggled in the month of June. In nine appearances this June he has completed just six innings and given up nine earned runs on eight hits, eight walks, and just five strikeouts. He has also hit three batters and seen his ERA grow to 5.06 while finishing a full inning in just three appearances.

In a corresponding roster move, the Rockies have recalled right-handed reliever Seth Halvorsen from the Triple-A Albuquerque Isotopes.

Halvorsen, 26, has a 3.31 ERA over 18 appearances and 16 strikeouts over 16.1 innings across multiple stints with the Major League roster.

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Houston Astros starter Mike Burrows should be in for a tough day against the pesky Toronto Blue Jays batters, who profile well against him, making Over 2.5 runs allowed my favorite play of the day. 

Read on for my Astros vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks for this Wednesday, June 24 matchup.

Astros vs Blue Jays predictions

Astros vs Blue Jays best bet: Mike Burrows Over 2.5 earned runs (-150)

The Toronto Blue Jays' offense is turning a corner, averaging 4.6 runs per game with a 113 WRC+ over their last 10 games. 

They also profile well against Mike Burrows, who throws a heavy dose of the four-seamer, with the changeup as his main secondary pitch. The Houston Astros' hurler owns a 5.89 ERA this season, allowing 4.3 runs per game over his last six full starts. 

Toronto handles his pitch mix well with a league-leading .263 average against the four-seamer and changeup with a .440 slug rate.

The Jays have seen a power uptick lately as well, with 15 home runs over their last 10 games, which is a big reason why they’ve been able to score more runs lately. 

I’d bet this to -160.

COVERS INTEL: Burrows gives up a lot of contact, ranking in the 22nd percentile in xBA, and decently hard contact with a high air-ball and line drive rate. 

Astros vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)

Kazuma Okamoto has a hit in four of his last five games and profiles well against Burrows’ pitch mix, owning a .346 average against them since June 1. He’s recorded at least one hit in 14 of 19 games this month.

The Astros own a 32% strikeout rate against the splitter with a 38% whiff rate. Blue Jays starter Trey Yesavage uses the splitter as his out-pitch and generates a 40% whiff rate on it.

Astros vs Blue Jays SGP

• Mike Burrows Over 2.5 earned runs
• Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 hits
• Trey Yesavage Over 5.5 strikeouts

Astros vs Blue Jays home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+265)

Okamoto profiles well against Burrows, who’s a contact pitcher that gets barreled up at a 9.1% rate and ranks in the 54th percentile in hard-hit rate 

The Jays slugger barrels the ball better than any other Blue Jays and makes hard contact with a .300 average and a 56.8% hard-hit rate against Burrows’ top pitches. 

Additionally, Burrows has surrendered 18 home runs through 14 starts this season, including at least one in eight of his last 10 outings. 

Despite the favorable matchup, I’ll make this a half-unit wager due to the volatility of the home run market. 

Astros vs Blue Jays odds

• Moneyline: Houston +120 | Toronto -140
• Run line: Houston +1.5 (-160) | Toronto -1.5 (+140)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)

Astros vs Blue Jays trend

The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the first five innings (F5) run line in seven of their last 10 games (+3.65 Units / 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Blue Jays.

How to watch Astros vs Blue Jays and game info

Astros vs Blue Jays latest injuries

Astros vs Blue Jays weather

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TV: NESN

First Pitch: 3:10 p.m. ET

The Red Sox should be playing for a sweep of the Rockies in the series finale, but we’ll finally let go of a rare Aroldis Chapman dud from Monday night. Boston got an exceptional start from Sonny Gray with 11 strikeouts in Tuesday’s win and could see another strong outing from Ranger Suárez on Wednesday. The lefty took a no-hitter into the seventh inning last time out against the Mariners and allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last three outings. 

Here’s who the Red Sox will send to the plate behind him Wednesday afternoon at Coors Field. 

The Rockies counter with lefty Kyle Freeland, who earlier this season set the franchise record for innings pitched in a Colorado uniform.