Category: MLB

The Guardians will now play the AL East version of themselves, the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Rays are 16-11, 10th in wRC+ at 103, 8th in baserunning runs above average at 1.7, sixth in starting pitcher ERA at 3.67 (3.88) and 26th in bullpen ERA at 5.27.

The Guardians are 15-14, 16th in wRC+ at 98, 29th in baserunning runs above average at -2.4, ninth in starting pitcher ERA at 3.78 (4.25 FIP) and 21st in bullpen ERA at 4.55.

As you can see, the key to beating the Rays SHOULD be to get their starting pitchers out of the game as quickly as possible and then beat up on their bullpen. Of course, having just seen the Guardians fail to beat up on a pretty bad Blue Jays’ pen, I am a bit skeptical at the moment. Hopefully, they surprise us.

Matchups:

Game One: Parker Messick, LHP 1.76 ERA (2.54 FIP) vs. Steven Matz, LHP 4.81 ERA (3.06 FIP)

Game Two: Tanner Bibee, RHP 4.45 ERA (4.64 FIP) vs. Nick Martinez, RHP 2.10 ERA (3.89 FIP)

Game Three: Gavin Williams, RHP 3.28 ERA (4.44 FIP) vs. Drew Rasmussen, RHP 2.45 ERA (4.10 FIP)

The Guardians’ offense is led by Daniel Schneemann at 167 wRC+, Angel Martinez 137 wRC+, Jose Ramirez 124 wRC+, Chase DeLauter 122 wRC+, Brayan Rocchio 122 wRC+, David Fry 110 wRC+, and Rhys Hoskins 103 wRC+. Is this the series that Kyle Manzardo, Bo Naylor, George Valera and/or Steven Kwan emerge from April hibernations? One can only hope.

The Rays’ offense is led by familiar frenemies Yandy Diaz 157 wRC+, Junior Caminero 131 wRC+, and Richie Palacios 126 wRC+. But, watch out also for Johnny DeLuca 120 wRC+, Jonathan Aranda 120 wRC+ and Jake Fraley 113 wRC+. This is a great series for those who enjoy franchise angst as we are likely to see big hits from Diaz and Caminero, but a Palacios key moment would be a cherry on top.

The Guardians are home. Time to find a way to win a series against a good team and get things back on track.

Glossary:

wRC+ – Weighted Runs Created Plus – A measure of determining a player’s run production value while controlling for park effects. 100 is league average.

Baserunning Runs Above Average – A metric including stolen base value, double-play avoidance, and taking extra bases to determine how many runs above average a team is on the basepaths

Defense – This stat gives you how many runs above average a team’s defenders save their team, adjusted for positional value (i.e. a catcher has far more defensive value for a team than a first baseman).

FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching. Essentially, ERA weighted by factors a pitcher can control (strikeouts, walks and homers) while eliminating as much as possible the effects of a good or bad defense.

SIERA – A metric to determine a pitcher’s true ERA based on strikeout rate, walk rate, and quality of batted-balls given up. This number is similar to ERA (3 and under is excellent) in determining player performance.

It felt like the San Diego Padres’ game all day, in large part, because it was.

Michael King twirled six innings of two-run ball, sporting eight strikeouts and only one walk. He exited the game with a 7-2 lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks. It was over in a hurry.

The Padres’ bullpen (uncharacteristically) gave up the game in a loud way. David Morgan and Bradgley Rodriguez combined to give up six runs — including a Tim Tawa grand slam — in the bottom of the seventh before Ron Marinaccio and Wandy Peralta gave up four more runs in the eighth to give the D-backs a five-run cushion.

San Diego tried to come back multiple times but couldn’t answer once, ending in a disappointing loss after what had started off as a promising game. Three home runs, two from Manny Machado and the other from Luis Campusano, had buoyed the Friars for most of the game until the relief blowup.

On most days, if the Friars scored seven runs before turning it over to the bullpen, there’d be no worry of giving the game up. But yesterday that was not to be.

The hard truth for the Friar Faithful is there will be games like this. It’s not an indictment on the bullpen, it’s just a long, long, season and leads will be blown sometimes — no matter how good the club is.

That being said, San Diego will return home tonight hoping to best the similarly-hot Chicago Cubs. Their offense will be back in the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park so they’ll need to bet on a bounce back performance from the relief corps.

Taking the mound

Matthew Boyd (CHC) v. Randy Vásquez (SD)

That being said, Boyd (although feared in the past) has not been pitching like himself lately. He gave up six runs in his first start of the season before being placed on the injured list for two weeks. He’s been better since returning but still sports a 5.79 ERA on the year.

Boyd has also yet to go a full six innings in a game (5 2/3 at most). That’s good news for the Friars, who will hope to get to the Chicago bullpen quickly. They’ve been mostly solid but have struggled to a 3.95 ERA to start the year, and are without closer Daniel Palencia.

Vásquez, on the other hand, has been San Diego’s ace to open the season. He’s tallied a 1.88 ERA and 1.08 WHIP to go with 30 strikeouts across 28 2/3 innings. He’s been a beast on the mound for the Padres and has only given up more than one run once.

Helping Vásquez significantly is his history facing Chicago. The righty owns a .194 opponent batting average against the Cubs’ lineup. If he can limit them similarly (like he’s done to opponents all season), Vásquez will have no problem tonight.

Batter up!

After some early tweaking by manager Craig Stammen, the lineup has been more or less set lately. It seems likely that continues tonight against Boyd, looking something like this:

1. Ramón Laureano, LF
2. Fernando Tatis Jr., RF
3. Jackson Merrill, CF
4. Manny Machado, 3B
5. Xander Bogaerts, SS
6. Gavin Sheets, DH
7. Nick Castellanos, 1B
8. Freddy Fermin, C
9. Sung-Mun Song, 2B

I’m hoping that Song makes his debut at the plate tonight. It’s possible that he debuts in a pinch-hit opportunity or DH-ing) as opposed to starting the game at second. But it seems possible he takes the start over Jake Cronenworth after Cronenworth’s slow offensive start to the season.

Tatis is still searching for his first homer of the year. It has been — by far — his longest drought without one. Hopefully he’ll hit one while being cheered on by the Friar Faithful tonight.

Relief corps

Like I said, the San Diego bullpen looked rough yesterday. But that’s hardly an indication of a downhill turn for the group. They’ve been dominant this year, ranking third in the majors with a 3.03 ERA.

The high-leverage guys (Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller) have continued to be dominant — showing no signs of stopping. Miller took the franchise record for scoreless innings pitched this weekend and will look to extend it tonight if San Diego has a lead in the ninth.

Behind those three is Kyle Hart, who will surely be first out of the ‘pen if Vásquez doesn’t perform as well as he typically does. Hart can cover several innings well for the Friars with his history as a starter, though he hopefully won’t need to so long as Vásquez pitches a gem.

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Luis Castillo will be handed the ball as the Seattle Mariners head to the North Star State to take on the Minnesota Twins.

My Mariners vs. Twins predictions explain why I expect Castillo to play a big part in the M's claiming the win.

Read more for my MLB picks for Monday, April 27.

Who will win Mariners vs Twins today: Mariners moneyline (-135)

The Seattle Mariners have captured four straight victories heading into tonight’s contest. Luis Castillo gets the ball tonight, and he’s found his form lately. The righty is also very familiar with this Minnesota Twins lineup. 

Castillo has held their offense to a .195 average across 113 at-bats. Castillo has also allowed just three earned runs across his last two starts, and he’s only given up four earned runs on the road this year.

Seattle faces rookie Connor Prielipp this evening, who has held his own through three appearances. In his first start last week, Prielipp surrendered only two earned runs to the New York Mets.

However, he’s up against an M’s lineup which has scored 14 runs across its last two games.

I could see both guys throwing the ball well, but Castillo will be better, and Seattle will muster up enough offense to chase Prielipp relatively early. 

COVERS INTEL: Minnesota’s bullpen has a horrid 4.85 ERA, and the Twins have also lost five straight games.

Mariners vs Twins Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+100)

While Seattle’s offense broke out a bit over the weekend, neither of these teams are scoring a ton of runs overall. The M’s are 22nd in runs scored, and they cashed the Under in two of the three games against the Cardinals. 

The Twins also took part in a low-scoring series with the Tampa Bay Rays, with the Under hitting in all three matchups as well. They also scored just five runs in that series, and Minny comes up against a very good arm in Castillo.

The Mariners’ bullpen is also elite, compiling a 3.18 ERA. Most of the offense tonight will come from Seattle, but don’t expect a ton. Pitching will be the storyline of the first game of this series. 

Mariners vs Twins odds

• Moneyline: Mariners -134 | Twins +114
• Run line: Mariners -1.5 | Twins +1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Mariners vs Twins trend

The Mariners have hit the Under in 10 of their last 13 away games (+6.80 Units / 48% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Twins.

How to watch Mariners vs Twins and game info

Mariners vs Twins latest injuries

Mariners vs Twins weather

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San Diego Padres Fernando Tatis Jr. is exiting the first month of the 2026 season with a disappointing .250/.333/.290 line, zero HR, 12 RBI, and 0.0 WAR. A very strange start for a player with a career WAR of 27.2. Nevertheless, not an area of concern, but certainly a step back in run production. 

Tatis Jr. is an elite defender with two Gold Gloves and two Platinum Gloves for his effort. However, for a player to be a Most Valuable Player candidate, the honor is closely tied to an outstanding offensive season. Unfortunately, Tatis Jr.’s output is nothing to write home about.

Tatis Jr. has become a more patient hitter

Granted, we are still in April, but the Friar Faithful want to see the light at the end of the tunnel. The star outfielder seems to be willing to take pitches and be more patient at the plate. Tatis Jr. did not overhaul his swing mechanics but has concentrated on putting more of the bat’s barrel on the ball.

The adjustment has drawn 13 walks in 27 games, which could challenge his career-high 89 BB last season. His walk rate is at 10% for the first month, as he is swinging less and is more willing to take a walk that puts a runner on base for the heart of the batting order.

The lone negative to his start, Tatis Jr. is still striking out at an alarming rate with runners in scoring position. Currently, his walk-to-strikeout rate is nearly 1-2.5, with Tatis Jr.’s strikeout rate at 24.6%. It has led to some missed scoring opportunities, as he has been having trouble putting the ball in the air.

To become a better run-producer, Tatis Jr. must drive the ball

Tatis Jr. has an 18.7% fly ball rate, which is the lowest of his seven-year major league career. Surprisingly, he is hitting a career-high 49.3% groundball rate in 100 at-bats. This combination likely explains his 27-game homerless streak.

Let’s not get too restless, as the newfound plate discipline will result in better quality contact at-bats. The three-time All-Star’s OPS (.623) is decent, but nowhere near his career average of .859. Tatis Jr.’s best mark was .975 in 2021. He wants to put himself into favorable count situations. But Tatis Jr. is failing to lift the ball for extra base hits. 

Despite the slow offensive production, Tatis Jr. is too talented a home run hitter to remain silent much longer. If he goes on a mini spree, his walk rate will likely decline.

He is scorching the ball when making solid contact, but it is right at the waiting glove of a fielder. Tatis Jr. is sporting a robust 66.7% hard-hit rate, well above the league average of 38.6%. He has an exit velocity of 93.3 mph this month. Tatis Jr. is trying to use the whole field and not pull every pitch. Still, you would expect better production than the results have shown.

His newfound plate discipline should provide more hittable situations. At some point, Tatis Jr. will do damage against opposing pitching.

While a clear feature of the 2026 Rockies is Warren Schaeffer changing up lineups depending on the opposing pitcher and analytics, one trend is emerging as a fairly regular trend: Edouard Julien in the leadoff spot.

Julien has hit in the No. 1 spot in 17 of the Rockies 29 games with all of them coming in the last 20. Jake McCarthy served as the leadoff hitter for the first five games of the season, Troy Johnston has done it three times, Tyler Freeman has done it twice and Jordan Beck and Mickey Moniak have each hit No. 1 once.

Overall, Julien is hitting .284/.369/.392 with 12 runs scored, 10 RBI, three doubles, one homer, 10 walks, 21 strikeouts and two stolen bases in 74 at-bats over 25 games. His .369 OBP is the second-best on the team for players with at least 40 at-bats.

Julien’s numbers are even better as the leadoff hitter. He’s hitting .317/.403/.429 with 20 hits, 10 RBI, one homer, two doubles, nine walks and 15 strikeouts in 63 at-bats. His production, along with patient at-bats, which are pretty rare for the Rockies, has made him the clear choice for the Rockies No. 1 hitter.

In spring training, Julien explained that he knows who he is as a hitter and takes pride in having long at-bats and not chasing.

In the first five games of the season, McCarthy had a .158 OBP as the leadoff hitter. The lack of production likely cost him the spot and relegated him to the bench. Johnston and Moniak have proved to be outstanding regardless of their place in the lineup. Unfortunately, Beck is off to a slow start in 2026 and is not getting as much time either.

Freeman was the Rockies most frequent leadoff hitter last year with 72 games in the role. Freeman is a solid choice for his low strikeout rate of 13.5% compared to the MLB average of 22.5%. A true utilityman, he’s hit in every spot in the lineup in his career and the No. 1 spot accounts for the most at the 10.3% of his games. He’s hit .260/.336/.332 with 47 runs, 30 RBI, 22 doubles, one homer, 16 stolen bases, 33 walks and 53 strikeouts in 377 at-bats over 101 games.

Freeman has struggled with some minor health issues to start the season. He started the season on the 10-day IL with lower back inflammation and tightness and was also pulled from the April 20 game with dizziness. Bloodwork came back fine, but playing in only 16 games this far, his vacancy may have opened up a spot for Julien.

Julien, who is in his fourth MLB season and first with the Rockies, is no stranger to the leadoff role. He played the majority of his time there in his first two of three seasons with Minnesota. Including his time with the Rockies, he’s now spent 43.8% of his career as a leadoff man. In his career, he’s hitting .214/.322/.356 with 72 runs scored, 41 RBI, 17 doubles, 15 homers, eight stolen bases and 72 walks with 165 strikeouts in the role in 449 at-bats in 128 games.

After a strong series against the Dodgers, Julien explained his philosophy of putting together quality at-bats.

At least for the foreseeable future, the leadoff spot appears to be Julien’s. With the Rockies off to a 13-16 start, and Colorado going 9-8 with Julien hitting first, it should be.

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The latest news on the Houston Astros and from around MLB:

Astros GM Dana Brown says Manager Joe Espada is NOT in jeopardy of losing his job:

Chandler Rome on where he sees fault lying with the Astros current state and slow start on the Gallant Says podcast with Sportsradio 610’s Paul Gallant:

Tyler Stafford also doesn’t think Espada is to blame for the Astros early season woes – from the Crush City Territory podcast he hosts with Chandler Rome:

Rome also questions if Brown has the authority to fore Espada if he wanted to (and that he currently does NOT want to) on his Crush City Territory podcast:

The Astros will send Kai-Wei Teng to the mound for his first start of the season tomorrow in Baltimore vs. the Orioles:

Teng has been a different pitcher this season for the Astros than he was last year for the Giants:

Teng will now replace the TBD:

Spencer Arrighetti didn’t make the Opening Day roster, but was always expected to be the 6th starter. Things haven’t gone according to play for the Astros, but Arrighetti is currently their best healthy starter:

Christian Walker proving his first half last season was the fluke, not the second half:

After a slow start to the season, Isaac Paredes is finding his groove. Over his last 7 games, he has raised his AVG from .186 to .233, SLG from .254 to .384, OPS from .569 to .710. In that span he is 9×27, 3 HR, 8 RBI:

SP Tatsuya Imai will make his first rehab start Tuesday for Double-A Corpus Christi:

Is Imai getting more comfortable in Houston, in America?

SP Cody Bolton made his first rehab start at Sugar Land Sunday. He pitched 2 innings, allowed 1 run on 2 hits and a walk. He threw 20 pitches, including 13 for strikes:

Yordan Alvarez, Ruler of Worlds:

Chandler Rome with an interesting take on the internet-based rumors of the Astros potentially dealing Yordan Alvarez on the Gallant Says podcast with Sportsradio 610’s Paul Gallant:

When Carlos Correa returned to Houston at the trade deadline last season, he was excited about the opportunity to play 3B and how it would take stress off his body no longer being an everyday SS. Due to multiple injuries to SS Jeremy Pena, Correa has had to primarily play SS. He’s been pretty good his first full season back in Houston:

Is this Astros team just not built to withstand injuries? Chandler Rome on the Crush City Territory Podcast:

Christian Vazquez has been a total steal for the Astros so far:

The Boston Red Sox fired Alex Cora and a bunch of his coaches over the weekend in what looks like a power play by Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow. Players are perturbed, media is perplexed, management is not on the same page and the owner is silent, as usual:

Red Sox SP Garrett Crochet has had how many managers now?

Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are the two oldest active players in MLB. They are both now on the IL after tough starts to the season:

Pretty incredible testament to his longevity and ability to overcome adversity throughout his career:

Bacon got cooked:

Former Phillies closer Ricky Bottalico lets loose on the team in it’s own postgame show:

Texas Rangers lineup for April 27, 2026 against the New York Yankees: starting pitchers are Jack Leiter for the Rangers and Max Fried for the Yankees.

The Rangers take on the Yankees in a game that will determine whether the Rangers will be above or below .500 tomorrow.

The lineup:

Nimmo — RF

Jung — 3B

Seager — SS

Burger — 1B

McCutchen — DH

Higashioka — C

Haggerty — LF

Carter — CF

Duran — 2B

7:05 p.m. Central start time. Rangers are +140 underdogs.

The Yankees ran out their longest win streak of the season this past week, getting eight in a row before dropping the final game of their set with Houston on Sunday. Thus far the team’s performance has come in three waves, with two stretches of dominant play sandwiching a terrible stretch where they couldn’t buy a run. The pitching has been fairly consistently the wing of the roster that’s been performing, but the offense has warmed up with the weather and found its footing of late.

All of this has the Yankees sitting atop the AL East as the month of April is nearly concluded, and the expected competition in the Red Sox and Blue Jays have been struggling out of the gate. Boston even made the surprising decision to fire their manager Alex Cora alongside several members of their coaching staff shortly after getting swept by New York. Has the landscape of the division changed with how these teams have performed, or will they remain thorns in the Yankees’ side? Will Jasson Domínguez find a consistent role on the team after getting called up in the wake of Luis Gil’s demotion? How will Anthony Volpe look when he returns to take over the shortstop gig? If you have questions like these, or anything else on your mind, send ‘em in for a chance to be featured in our Yankees mailbag.

Answers will run on Friday afternoon. All questions received by the night of April 30th will be considered. You can leave your submissions in the comment section below or by e-mail to pinstripealleyblog [at] gmail [dot] com.

These teams meet for the first time since the Cubs defeated the Padres in last year’s tightly-fought Wild Card Series. Both teams are off to good starts in 2026; perhaps they will meet again in October.

For more on the Padres, here’s Matt DeWalt, manager of our SB Nation Padres site Gaslamp Ball.

The San Diego Padres got off to a rough start to the season dropping the first two series at home against the Detroit Tigers and San Francisco Giants, leaving them with a 2-4 record. Since that time, the Padres have won six consecutive series heading into a road matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks in Mexico City. Tons of runs were scored in that two-game set, which the teams split.

The story of the season has been the San Diego bullpen, which is anchored by Mason Miller. The right-hander has been dominant to this point and has thrown 34.2 consecutive innings (including the end of the 2025 season) without allowing a run, while giving up just seven hits with 69 strikeouts. Miller has converted all of his 10 save opportunities on the year.

The starting rotation has taken some hits with Yu Darvish out for the season, Joe Musgrove still not back after Tommy John surgery in 2024, and Nick Pivetta being placed on the IL with a flexor strain. Michael King leads the staff and is joined by Randy Vasquez, Walker Buehler and German Marquez. Matt Waldron was called up from Triple-A, but did not look good in his first two starts against the Los Angeles Angels and Colorado Rockies.

The San Diego offense has shown signs of life and appears to have discovered some of the slug that was missing during the 2025 season. The most surprising player without a home run for the Padres is Fernando Tatis Jr. He is still contributing with hits and driving in and scoring runs, but the goose egg in the HR column is a bit alarming to the Friar Faithful. Ramon Laureano has solidified the leadoff spot and has been one of the best offensive players for San Diego along with Xander Bogaerts.

New Padres manager Craig Stammen has shown a willingness to shakeup the lineup and has stressed his desire to make rest days a priority for players like Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth and Bogaerts. He uses his bench depth to achieve that goal. Stammen seems to be pulling all the right levers as his team sits at 18-9 and is tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West lead. We will have to see if Stammen and the San Diego roster can maintain this level of play as the season progresses.

Fun facts

San Diego is the only current National League city other than Chicago at which the Cubs have a winning record. They are 133-129, .508.

But they lost two of three each of the past two years, after having split four games in 2023. From 2018-22, the Cubs had gone 9-4 in San Diego.

(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

Probable pitching matchups

Monday: Matthew Boyd, LHP (1-1, 5.79 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 1.56 FIP) vs. Randy Vasquez, RHP (2-0, 1.88 ERA, 1.081 WHIP, 2.53 FIP)

Tuesday: Edward Cabrera, RHP (2-0, 2.73 ERA, 1.180 WHIP, 3.63 FIP) vs. Walker Buehler, RHP (1-2, 5.75 ERA, 1.623 WHIP, 3.27 FIP)

Wednesday: Jameson Taillon, RHP (1-1, 4.55 ERA, 1.301 WHIP, 6.02 FIP) vs. Matt Waldron, RHP (0-1, 12.46 ERA, 2.308 WHIP, 6.24 FIP)

Times & TV channels

Monday: 8:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, streaming on Peacock (Padres broadcast)

Tuesday: 8:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, MLB Network (outside the Cubs and Padres market territories)

Wednesday: 3:10 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Prediction

This will not be an easy series. The Padres are a very good team and are 9-4 at home this year. They’ve had to travel from Denver to Mexico City to San Diego over the last week, though. Maybe they’ll be tired from playing at altitude for a week. (Yes, I’m reaching.) I’m going to say the Cubs will get good outings from Boyd and Cabrera and win two of three.

Up next

The Cubs have Thursday off, then return to Wrigley Field for a three-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks beginning Friday afternoon.

A recent report from The New York Post’s Jon Heyman suggested that the San Diego Padres might return to their former Seidler-spending ways this offseason, even getting into the bidding war for the services of Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal.

Skubal has long been sought after by other clubs, and teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Mets will factor in as well in the bidding. He’s likely to receive the largest free agent contract ever for a pitcher, with most analysts estimating his value to be somewhere around $50 million annually.

That number blows the previous record of $43.33 million (Max Scherzer, Mets), though that was only for three years. Skubal would likely be locked up for much longer than that, and under a no-trade clause.

The war for Skubal

Skubal will, without a doubt, break that record. The only question is by how much.

The sole way that number could be dampened is by injury. He’s never not dominating on the mound, it seems like a certainty in life: death, taxes, and Tarik Skubal going six quality innings. But if he were to require surgery, there would be a major question mark entering free agency. He would likely still garner a large salary, but it could cause the AAV to dip.

Here’s the thing, though. Of the three teams mentioned thus far in the bidding (Dodgers, Mets, Padres), San Diego has the best reason to sign Skubal.

The Dodgers are hardly short on starting pitching, with a rotation headlined by Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Even with their injuries they still manage to piece it together every year.

They don’t need the southpaw’s services nearly as much as others, but they’ll be bidders simply because they like to spend. They’ve now picked up a top free agent in three consecutive offseasons, and four of the last five (Freddie Freeman, 2022; Shohei Ohtani, 2023; Roki Sasaki, 2025; Kyle Tucker, 2026).

On the other hand, the Mets desperately need consistent starters. They have a rotation with huge upside, but they’ve largely missed the mark. The only one producing right now is Nolan McLean (who could win NL Rookie of the Year this season).

But — if GM David Stearns manages to keep his job amidst New York’s torrid start to the year — he’s shown a hesitancy to extend pitchers contracts longer than a couple years. Skubal will be looking to attain a bit more length than that.

San Diego has the most compelling case for a true ace like Skubal. Both Michael King and Nick Pivetta have opt-outs in their contracts after this season, and they each seem likely to test free agency. Bob Nightengale of USA Today even wrote that “As long as he’s breathing at the end of the season, [Pivetta will] opt out.”

The Friars, like they do every year, need certainty on the pitching front. They’ve got Vásquez for 2027, but that’s about it. It’s possible they retain Pivetta given the flexor strain that’s kept him off the mound for the foreseeable future. But King will likely walk given he’s pitched like an ace again after an injury-plagued 2025.

A return to the Seidler way

If San Diego is actually in on Skubal this upcoming offseason, it would mark a return to the spending ways of former owner Peter Seidler. He shelled out just about everything he had in order to field a winning team for the Padres. And, although Seidler accomplished his vision, he never got to see the club win a World Series before he passed away in 2023.

José E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones would like to see it happen. The two purchased the club for a $3.9 billion valuation with their stake in the club being up to 40%, according to Dennis Lin and Mike Vorkunov of the Athletic.

Other investors will join as minority owners. It seems likely that the Seidler family will retain some level of ownership. Drew Brees and Vuori’s Joe Kudla had been reported to desire joining ownership so they could be in on the club as well. Alfredo Harp Hélu also stated that he will retain his 15% stake in the organization.

But regardless of that, there’s a question of the Feliciano-Jones ownership’s commitment to spending. Feliciano, through his private equity firm Clearlake Capital, has owned Chelsea F.C. of the Premier League. Chelsea has had problems with their ownership in recent years, but they have been the biggest-spending club in the league.

Is Feliciano’s move to the Padres a desire to step out and create something of his own away from the ownership drama with Chelsea? Or was he the cause of Chelsea’s problems and ousted by the other owners to pursue something else?

It’s difficult to say until more is revealed about the two. San Diego has yet to formally announce the sale of the club, as the minority ownership still has to be sorted out. Once it is, the owners of MLB will convene and vote in Feliciano and Jones, though that process is mostly a formality.

But for the Friar Faithful the team being sold is great news. Each offseason, the Padres have felt like they were simply treading water instead of actually competing with other teams. They’ve managed to hold up until now, coming off of consecutive postseason appearances and 90-win seasons, but the Seidler family has pulled back the reins on Peter Seidler’s bodacious spending of the past.

If Feliciano and Jones return to that spending, the Friars might be unstoppable. With rockstar GM A.J. Preller in the manager’s chair for the club (with a bigger wallet to boot), San Diego could be even more of a championship-caliber team than they already are. That makes it easy to dream of Skubal in brown and gold.

Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Mets and Nationals play a three-game series at Citi Field starting on Tuesday night on SNY...

5 things to watch

How much worse can it get?

By getting swept by the Rockies in a three-game series over the weekend at Citi Field, the Mets fell to 9-19 and are tied with the Phillies for the worst record in MLB.  

The main problem for the Mets right now is that there seemingly isn't much they can do but hope things turn around.

A team dismissing a manager this early in the season can certainly happen if the results relative to expectations are bad enough -- see Alex Cora and the Red Sox. And it's fair to wonder if Carlos Mendoza's job will be safe if the Mets don't win this series against Washington.

Beyond that, there is no magic elixir for the MLB-worst offense, no one coming to save the undermanned rotation right now, and no impact relievers in Triple-A Syracuse who are on the cusp of reaching the majors. 

If the Mets win two or three of these games against Washington, perhaps things will start to normalize. If not, watch out. 

Rotation shakeup coming?

The Kodai Senga situation is untenable, and it's close to impossible to envision him remaining in the rotation.

Complicating matters is that Christian Scott couldn't locate during his start last week, and is now back in Triple-A. Scott will very likely be back sooner rather than later, but he can't return until May 4 unless he replaces an injured player.

Against the Nats, the Mets can go with Clay Holmes and Freddy Peralta in the first two games, but they'll need a starter for the final game on Thursday (or a starter for Wednesday if they pitch Peralta on an extra day of rest). That's because Nolan McLean pitched Sunday and won't pitch again until this Friday at the earliest. 

The Mets could theoretically use one of their four bulk relievers (David Peterson, Sean Manaea, Tobias Myers, or Carl Edwards Jr.) to start on Wednesday or Thursday and/or piggyback a few of them.

Still, a more permanent solution is necessary, which could mean Peterson or Manaea returning to the rotation in a regular capacity. 

Carson Benge is starting to look comfortable

Since Benge was hitting .091 with a .392 OPS entering play on April 8, it's going to take a while for him to get his numbers to a respectable level.

But he's starting to look a lot more relaxed at the plate.

Benge has five hits in his last 12 at-bats and has struck out just once over his last six games -- a span of 15 plate appearances.

He's also above average when it comes to six of 13 advanced stats tracked by Baseball Savant (average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, sweet-spot percentage, squared-up percentage, chase percentage, and whiff percentage).

Meanwhile, Benge is in the 94th percentile when it comes to OAA and 91st percentile in sprint speed. 

Washington's putrid pitching

If there's any pitching staff that could help the Mets' offense wake up, it's the Nats' group.

Washington has surrendered a whopping 171 runs this season, which is the most in the NL and fewer than only the Astros, who have allowed 174.

Against the Mets, the Nats are set to trot out these three starting pitchers:

Zack Littell: 7.56 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 25.0 IP this season. He has allowed 16 runs (14 earned) on 18 hits in 10.0 innings over his last two starts.

Cade Cavalli: 4.01 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in 24.2 IP. Cavalli has given up more hits (29) than innings.

Miles Mikolas: 8.49 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in 23.1 IP. Mikolas has surrendered seven home runs. 

Beware of James Wood

Wood has been a force.

He has still been bedeviled by strikeouts (his 44 are the most in the majors after his 221 were the most in the sport last season).

But Wood is leading the NL in home runs (10) and walks (28) while posting a career-best .972 OPS.

Predictions

Who will the MVP of the series be?

Bo Bichette

Bichette is hitting .292 over his last six games.

Which Mets pitcher will have the best start?

Freddy Peralta 

Peralta's average fastball velocity has been ticking up. It was 93.5 mph on April 12 against the Athletics, 94.0 on April 18 against the Cubs, and 94.5 this past Friday against the Rockies. Peralta averaged 94.8 mph with the offering last season. 

Which Nationals player will be a thorn in the Mets' side?

CJ Abrams

Abrams is having a big year, with seven homers and an .896 OPS. 

Last season, Seaver King swung at 53.1% of pitches in the minors. That is much more than the average big league rate, which hovers around 46%. This over aggression is part of what contributed to a rough first pro season for King. Now, the former first round pick is only swinging at 39.8% of pitches, but is doing much more damage.

In over 500 at bats last season, Seaver King hit just six home runs. Armed with a new approach, King already has four homers, a feat he did not accomplish until the middle of June last year. It is clear that King is hunting for his pitch and driving it when it comes. If he does not get his pitch, he is perfectly content to take it.

Seaver King has gone from an ultra-aggressive hitter to a patient one seemingly overnight. Plate discipline is usually one of those skills that is harder to teach. Guys like Juan Soto are just born with an ability to know the zone, while it is tougher for hitters like Javier Baez. King seemed to fall into that latter category, but so far the Leopard is changing its spots.

By swinging less, King is also inevitably walking more. After walking at a 5.8% clip last season, he is taking free passes over 17% of the time this year. While King is the most extreme example of this, we are seeing less swinging throughout the Nats organization. 

Right now, the Nats have 11 minor league hitters who are walking over 15% of the time. Last season, they only had three, and all of them were either in the Dominican Summer League or the complex, where pitchers don’t throw many strikes. Even if that number drops to 7 or 8, it would be much higher than any season in recent memory.

You can search just about any prospect in the Nats system on Fangraphs, and almost all of them are swinging less. Yeremy Cabrera has cut his swing rate from 45% to 41%. Eli Willits has gone from 46.4% to 44.1%, while Luke Dickerson has gone from 46% to 40%. Devin Fitz-Gerald and Abimelec Ortiz are two other notable players who cut their swing rates down.

There are still some aggressive hitters thriving in the organization right now like Ronny Cruz and Cayden Wallace. However, it is clear that the new front office wants players to swing less and do more when they do swing. After years of watching the Nats ground ball heavy and free swinging offenses, this approach is a breath of fresh air.

The roots of this rebuild are developing at the minor league level, but you can see this philosophy taking hold at the big league level. Plate discipline and contact skills are a big reason why the Nats targeted Jorbit Vivas and Curtis Mead. We are also seeing players like CJ Abrams and Brady House walking more often.

Surprisingly, it feels like the hitting development improvements are having a quicker impact than the pitching development stuff. I figured it would be the other way around, but I am very happy to see Nats hitters having success at all levels of the organization. We are seeing plenty of breakout hitters in the minors like King, Ronny Cruz and Yeremy Cabrera.

I think the new front office is a big part of this success. They are not going to magically turn everyone around, but you want to see consistent success stories. We are seeing those success stories early in the season, and it helps you buy into the front office’s vision.

The Nats walking more often at all levels is no accident. Between the messaging and the new tools at players disposal, this is part of a master plan. Down in Fredericksburg, batters hit off a machine that throws harder and produces nastier stuff than any Low-A arm they will see. 

That should get them ready for the game and make those at bats easier. I remember going to a batting cage and hitting against the hardest level, then going back to a slower one. It was so much easier to hit, and the ball felt so big. That must be what it feels like for these guys during the games.

Nothing beats having a plan and seeing it come to fruition. That is what we are seeing from Paul Toboni and the Nationals. They wanted their guys to swing less, and they have. It has been something that has caused positive change as well. The newly patient Seaver King now has a .944 OPS in AA, far better than the .600 OPS he mustered last year. 

We knew some prospects would benefit from the regime change, we just were not sure who. Now, we have a better idea of who the biggest beneficiaries are. The hyper athletes who needed refinement like Seaver King and Ronny Cruz are coming into their own now that they are being developed by this new regime. Sometimes less is more, and that is what Seaver King and other Nats prospects have learned this season.

Max Scherzer may have to consider another home remedy for his arm woes.

Scherzer, the Blue Jays' 41-year-old right-hander, was placed on the 15-day injured list by Toronto Monday, April 27 due to right forearm tendinitis and left ankle inflammation.

Scherzer, who credited playing the piano with an extended run of good health heading into the 2025 playoffs, was rocked for seven earned runs in 2⅔ innings of his April 24 start. He entered the outing needing one strikeout to become just the second pitcher in the past 24 years to reach 3,500 strikeouts.

But Scherzer failed to register a strikeout in the start, leaving him one shy of the milestone. He has posted a 9.64 ERA in five starts in his 19th major league season.

For the first time this year, the White Sox have had a week that did not end with a losing record. And the first half of the week brought the first back-to-back series wins of the season. Unfortunately, however, the second half saw a return to a lack of power and run support.

Going into this week, there were home run streaks abound. Munetaka Murakami entered Tuesday with three straight games with a home run, Colson Montgomery had two games, and Miguel Vargas was on the precipice of a streak with one home run. On Tuesday, Sam Antonacci hit his first MLB home run: After a rules check, the inside-the-park home run was confirmed, making for a unique first “long” ball:

By Wednesday, Mune tied the franchise record with five straight games with a home run, Montgomery recorded his fourth, and Vargas hit the trifecta. But even though Thursday brought a cool-down for the trio. Andrew Benintendi picked up the slack with a go-ahead blast in the Phoenix finale.

That win meant for first time since 2021, the White Sox won 10 games before May 1.

When the Pale Hose arrived home on Friday to begin a series with the Nationals, Murakami homered again, moving into a tie for the MLB home-run lead with his 11th of the season:

Then, the home runs stopped, and frankly so did the fun. The power outage resulted in back-to-back extra-innings losses to the Nationals to drop a weekend series in Chicago.

As the hitting peaked for the week, the pitching found a groove.

• Davis Martin added another quality start to his season, pitching 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball on Thursday in Arizona. He walked only one batter and struck out seven. Martin is dominating the race for the title of ace for the 2026 season. If he continues like this for another month or two, he will find himself in Philadelphia for the All-Star Game.
• In Friday’s win against Washington, Erik Fedde came in after Bryan Hudson’s open and threw 5 2/3 innings of three-run baseball. Even though only one of those would be an earned run, he would leave the game in a position to lose. That became a moot point when Antonacci hit a go-ahead sacrifice fly in the bottom of the eighth. Fedde’s ERA is less than 3.50 for the first time since April 11.
• Noah Schultz continued to endear South Side fans, with a six-inning outing on Saturday that resulted in two runs for the Nationals against eight strikeouts. He ended up banking the first no-decision of his career.
• On Sunday, Sean Burke was not only efficient but dominant, after Hudson received the honor of opening a second game of the weekend. Burke came on in the second inning and shut Washington down. He only struck out four in 7 1/3 innings, but he gave up no runs during that time to keep the game tied into the bottom of the ninth. He too would not get a decision in the game, as Seranthony Domínguez earned his third loss of the season after giving up two runs in the 10th.

This brings us to the not-so-great pitching moments of the week:

• Jordan Leasure is first on this list. On Friday, the reliever gave up a game-tying home in the top of the eighth to Brady House. He would vulture the win in the game, thanks to Antonacci’s sac fly in the bottom of the inning. However, on Saturday Leasure allowed the Nationals to score four runs in the top of the 10th inning; had he held the inning scoreless, the South Siders could have won, 3-2.
• Domínguez also gets a special shout-out for his poor performance this week due to Sunday’s game. He entered the closing game of the series with three consecutive saves; however, he entered this game with a tied score. Rather than shut the offense down to keep the home offense in the game, the “closer” gave up two runs, including a homer, to earn the loss.
• Honorable mention goes to Anthony Kay, who balked in a run during Wednesday’s 11-7 loss.

Other random news and highlights from the week included:

• A stellar diving play by Everson Pereira in Tuesday’s 11-5 win against the Diamondbacks. The catch saved at least one, if not two runs from scoring:

• Murakami flashed some leather of his own in Thursday’s win to get the second out of the fourth inning:

• Speaking of Murakami, he and Montgomery became the first pair of teammates in MLB history to each hit homers in four consecutive team games. The first baseman is also the only player in baseball history to have 10+ home runs and 20+ walks in their first 25 career games. He may still be batting .232, but he is quickly becoming a fan favorite.

• Reese McGuire was designated for assignment, making way for Drew Romo to make his White Sox debut. The White Sox are not out of all $1.2 million, as the veteran was released early enough in the season that he was owed nothing beyond what he has already been paid. Chris Getz sometimes does work smart.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are making their way to Chicago to begin the week with a three-game set, and from there the White Sox will head to San Diego for the first weekend of May.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers look for their fourth win in five games as they open a three-game set at home against the Miami Marlins.

My Marlins vs. Dodgers predictions and free MLB picks have the home team continuing its recent dominance of the visitors.

Who will win Marlins vs Dodgers today: Dodgers -1.5 (-140)

There’s been nowhere to hide for the Miami Marlins’ pitching staff against one of the best lineups in baseball.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have won seven of the last eight against Miami, and plenty of those have been blowouts. L.A. has scored at least seven runs in each of their wins on this run, cracking double digits four times.

That’s not a good sign for Marlins’ starter Chris Paddack, who’s 0-4 with an inflated 6.38 ERA.

The Dodgers' offense is second in the bigs, averaging 5.68 runs per game, so it’s all setting up for another beating on Monday.

COVERS INTEL: Max Muncy has picked up hits in eight of his last 11 games. He’s hit Paddack hard in 15 at-bats, with two doubles and two home runs.

Marlins vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-104)

The Dodgers and Marlins have combined to go Over the total in eight of the last nine meetings, and none of them have been cheapies. 

In fact, the lowest total set between these teams during this stretch has been 8 runs, and it's gone as high as 10 runs twice, with both cashing the Over.

The only concern might be that the Dodgers will trot out ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but he wasn’t even that sharp last time out, surrendering a season-high three earned runs while taking the loss against the Giants.

Still, L.A. can do much of the heavy lifting on its own.

Marlins vs Dodgers odds

• Moneyline: Marlins +245 | Dodgers -300
• Run line: Marlins +1.5 | Dodgers -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Marlins vs Dodgers trend

Each of the Marlins' last 11 road games vs the NL West opponents have cashed the Over. Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Marlins vs Dodgers and game info

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