Category: MLB

The Mets aren't in denial about where they are -- and where they're likely headed.

Following the firing of manager Carlos Mendozathis past Friday, president of baseball operations David Stearns was somber and clear-minded about the potential fate of the 2026 team.

"We all remain very focused on doing everything we can to win as many games as we can this year, while recognizing where we are in the standings," Stearns said Friday afternoon at Citi Field.

The Mets then went out and lost two of three to the Phillies over the weekend, with Sunday's 5-4 defeat being managed more like an audition for Kodai Senga's future than a must-win for a team that is starved for victories. 

Ahead of a seven-game road trip that opens on Monday in Toronto, the Mets are 35-49 and 9.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. They have lost eight of their last 10 games, and would likely need to finish on a 50-28 clip (or better) to have a chance to reach the postseason.

That means that barring a very hot stretch over the next month, the Mets will be selling ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline -- something that felt unfathomable when the season started.

But New York's task likely now becomes deciding just how big their sell-off will be, and how many true keepers they have for 2027 and beyond.

Here's how we would go about things...

KEEPERS

Juan Soto
Francisco Lindor
Carson Benge
A.J. Ewing
Nolan McLean
Christian Scott
Francisco Alvarez
Luis Torrens

There have been some wild suggestions about the future of Soto, who is under contract for the next 13 seasons after this one. But despite how awful the end of last season was and how demoralizing the first half of this season has been for the Mets, there is no reason for them to even begin to think about trading Soto -- a 27-year-old hitting savant who is leading the NL in OPS. 

Lindor, who did not seem off-limits this past offseason, has finished in the top-10 in MVP voting each of the last four seasons, plays through discomfort, is always accountable, and is one of the things that is actually good about this team.  

The rookies Benge and Ewing, who have established themselves as possible difference-makers on both sides of the ball, are obvious keepers. As are McLean and Scott.

There is sure to be some consternation regarding Alvarez's inclusion here, but he's been above average offensively over the last three seasons (108 OPS+) and has plus power. Perhaps his future is as someone who is the designated hitter five times a week and catches twice, but he should be part of the plan.

The same goes for Torrens, who recently signed an extension and is one of the best defensive catchers in baseball.

AVAILABLE

Freddy Peralta
Luis Robert Jr.
A.J. Minter
Brooks Raley
Tyrone Taylor

The five players above are all set for free agency after the season, meaning they will all certainly be very available.

Peralta has struggled this season, which could impact the return, but he has a history of pitching near the top of a rotation. Beyond that, the Mets just got a legitimate prospect from the Cubs for David Peterson (who had an ERA above 6.00 when he was traded), meaning New York should be able to pry something of serious value from a pitching-needy team in exchange for Peralta.

Robert is a tricky one, since he is still rehabbing his back injury. But if he makes it back in time, he could be of interest to a team searching for a plus defensive center fielder with pop. There is close to zero shot the Mets will exercise their team option on Robert for 2027, which should make this an easy call for them.

Minter and Raley have both been terrific this season, and should net relatively strong returns in a market that has 22 teams at various levels of contention.

SEE IF SOMEONE BITES

Brett Baty
Mark Vientos
Huascar Brazoban

Baty has had a very disappointing season after posting a career-best .748 OPS in 2025. He carried a .589 OPS and just three homers into play on Monday. And given that this is his fifth year in the majors, it feels like his chance to prove he's part of the Mets' future as a lineup regular is nearing its end. If he sticks around, Baty could fit as a versatile bat off the bench in 2027.

Vientos has a .680 OPS over the last two seasons, and has not been able find any consistency (his OBP this season is .253). Add to that his defensive shortcomings and the presence of Jorge Polanco (who is under contract through 2027 and is best-suited as a DH), and it makes sense to see if there's interest in Vientos.

As far as Brazoban, the Mets should try to capitalize on his impressive season. If the offers aren't to their liking, they can simply keep Brazoban -- who is under team control through 2029.

VERY HARD TO MOVE

Sean Manaea
Kodai Senga
Jorge Polanco
Marcus Semien

Manaea (owed $19.2 million for 2027), Senga (owed $15 million), and Polanco (owed $23 million) will all be entering the final guaranteed year of their respective deals next season, but they'll be close to impossible to move.

Manaea has showed flashes lately, but likely not enough to garner interest. Senga has been moved to the bullpen, and Polanco hasn't played since the middle of April.

Semien is under contract through 2028, and was ineffective offensively and defensively (.612 OPS, -5 OAA) before landing on the IL with a hip injury.

Aside from Polanco, who could be a legitimate DH option if he's healthy, the Mets are probably going to have tough decisions to make about these players when it comes to their expected contributions next season.

THE COMPLICATED CASES

Bo Bichette
Clay Holmes
Luke Weaver
Devin Williams

If Bichette is planning to opt out of his three-year deal after this season, it would be a no-brainer for the Mets to make him available. But even though Bichette has been much better lately (.878 OPS since May 18), his uneven season and uncertain future could make a trade difficult to pull off.

When it comes to Holmes, who is working his way back from a freak leg injury, it seems all but certain he'll decline the $12 million player option he has for 2027. If I'm the Mets, I approach him now with an extension offer. If those talks don't progress, make him available.

Weaver, who is under contract through 2027, has been a revelation this season and is comfortable in the New York market. The Mets should only trade him if they're overwhelmed by an offer.

The same goes for Williams, who is signed through 2028. His performance this year (Williams' 2.81 FIP is much more indicative of how he's looked than his 4.28 ERA) has been largely dominant since April 26 -- 2.21 ERA in 20.1 innings.

As the calendar prepares to roll over to July, it is officially time to start diving into trade rumors and focusing some energy on how to fortify the roster. Before the season began, and after the “hot” stove this past winter, the Yankees front office repeatedly pushed the narrative that they approached last year’s trade deadline looking not only to add the missing pieces for the 2025 club that fell short of a championship, but also to build the foundation for this year’s roster.

Soon we will find out what Brian Cashman makes of this edition of the team after another half season of data. Predicting trades is always just a best guess because so many factors go into the equation, none more important than the fact that we have no idea how other executives truly value the Yankees’ prospects. Making a deal involves finding a dance partner who not only fits your needs, but also likes what you have to bring to the table. So without getting to far into the weeds, what will the Yankees’ priorities be at this upcoming trade deadline?

Before taking a deep dive into splits, performances to date, and how those data points compare to league averages, a few things stand out to the naked eye. The first is the Yankees’ depth at starting pitcher.

Max Fried is still on the injured list, but he is making his way back and, knocking on wood, the rest of the rotation has either remained healthy or worked its way back as well. Starting pitching simply does not appear to be a priority. That is not to say the Yankees would not add a starter if the price were right, but it feels much more like a cherry-on-top scenario than an organizational need.

The other thing that stands out is the injured list. Cashman has long believed that getting an injured player back can be just as valuable as making a trade. Using that logic, the Yankees, in addition to a starter in Fried, will eventually be adding a right fielder, a center fielder, and a designated hitter over the course of the summer.

Between that and the inexpensive production they have received from Jasson Domínguez and Spencer Jones as the next men up, the Yankees are probably out of the outfield market unless someone unexpectedly falls into their lap or another injury, or bad recovery news, changes the equation.

It should also be assumed that most positions addressed either at last year’s deadline or this past offseason are viewed as lower priorities. Whether fans agree or not, that likely includes third base with Ryan McMahon and Amed Rosario, and left field with Cody Bellinger. I also have to think the idea of José Caballero spending more time at third base, once some of the banged-up outfielders return, has crossed the minds of the executives making these calls.

So what are the priorities? Diving into the numbers, outside of health, the Yankees currently have two Achilles’ heels: catcher and the bullpen, particularly its effectiveness against left-handed hitters.

Entering Sunday, Yankees catchers owned a .510 OPS. The major league average for catchers sits at .674. I like to think of OPS as the closest thing baseball has to a report card for hitters. Essentially, Yankees catchers are getting about a 51 on the test, while the rest of the league is averaging a D+. Neither of these are great, but if the Yankees could simply get the league average from this spot it would only further aid one of the better offenses in baseball.

Catcher, however, is one of the most difficult positions to address at the trade deadline. Half of the job is handling the pitching staff, so acquiring a catcher assumes he can quickly build chemistry with a new group of pitchers while continuing to produce offensively. It is not easy.

Unless you have been living under a rock, you know the Yankees have been heavily linked to Ryan Jeffers all season long. In this case, many of the concerns about acquiring a catcher are somewhat eased because Jeffers developed under current Yankees catching coach Tanner Swanson. In theory, that familiarity should help smooth the transition, but like an ogre there are extra layers to adding a catcher.

That brings us to the bullpen. As beloved as Tim Hill is, and despite Brent Headrick putting together a career year, the Yankees sit squarely in the middle of the pack when it comes to retiring left-handed hitters once the game reaches the bullpen.

The writing on the wall is that when Fried returns, either Ryan Weathers or Will Warren could move into a relief role. However, neither has been particularly dominant against left-handed hitters this season, allowing OPS figures of .741 and .731, respectively.

Unfortunately, the Yankees also rank among the league leaders in blown saves. Does more need to be said? Then again, when was the last time a legitimate contender did not spend the summer looking for bullpen help? The bullpen is far from bad, but it is clearly an area where an upgrade is both needed and realistically attainable at different cost points each season.

This deadline should be a fascinating one. Will the Yankees push all of their chips into the middle of the table? What would that even look like given the current state of the farm system? My expectation is that Cashman will prioritize a move that addresses the catcher and the bullpen at once or toss several stones at bullpen arms hoping a wide net yields the desired catch. Only time will tell what deals are made and, more importantly, whether those moves ultimately bring the Yankees to the goal of a championship. What do you have as the priority?

The Phillies took care of business against the Mets. By taking care of business, they just kind of got out of the Mets’ way and let them find ways to lose, but a win is a win, and the Phillies won two games in a stadium where they don’t often do so. Now, they’ll return home to face a Pirates team that got off to a good start, but has a losing record in June and is now down to a .500 record.

Opposition research: Brandon Lowe

Brandon Lowe’s career got off to a great start. As a rookie with the Rays, he made the All-Star team and finished third in Rookie of the Year voting. The next two years, he was in the top 10 of AL MVP voting, including a 39-home run season in 2021.

But he never took the next step to superstardom, and settled in as a good, but not great player. He’ll hit 20+ home runs every season (31 in 2025) but an unexceptional on-base percentage, and increasingly poor defense at second base made the Rays deem him expendable. He was part of a three-team trade this offseason, and started the season as the Pirates’ second baseman.

The change of scenery has seemed to agree with him. He’s already hit 20 home runs, and his defense has graded out much better.

It’s possible that he makes his second All-Star team, although Phillies fans can help prevent that if they stuff the ballot box for Bryson Stott.

He’s going to be a free agent at season’s end, meaning the Pirates have a decision to make. It seems dangerous for a team with such a limited payroll to commit to a guy having a career best season at age 31.

Remembering a guy who played for the Pirates and Phillies

Andy Van Slyke is best remembered for his time with the Pirates. In eight seasons with the team, he made three All-Star games, two Silver Slugger awards, and five Gold Gloves in center field. After 1994, with Van Slyke seemingly in decline, the Pirates allowed him to leave as a free agent.

He signed with the Orioles for the 1995 season, but struggled, batting .159 in 17 games. The Phillies, needing outfield help, traded for him, putting him in center field, and shifting Lenny Dykstra to left.

Van Slyke had a successful debut with the Phillies, hitting a home run in a win over the Mets. Unfortunately, he then got injured in his second game and ended up missing almost a month. He struggled greatly after his return, and ended up batting just .243 in 63 games as the Phillies had an awful second half of the season.

Hating on the Pirates

Why hate on the Pirates when team ownership does such a good job of it themselves? They run the team like a minor league franchise, and it feels like a matter of when, not if, that Paul Skenes is pitching somewhere else.

They pick near the top of the draft just about every year, but very few blue-chip talents ever seem to reach the major league team. They already handed a bag to prospect Konnor Griffin and based on how the past few decades have gone for the Pirates, it seems just as likely that he’ll go the way of Scott Kingery.

Additional thought about the series

Wednesday’s pitching matchup of Zack Wheeler vs. Skenes is a great one on paper, although the earlier matchup between the two didn’t turn out to be much of a pitchers’ duel. Wheeler was terrific, throwing seven shutout innings, but Skenes was clearly not at his best, giving up five runs in five innings.

Somehow, the Pirates are still using Gregory Soto as their closer. He has four blown saves on the season, including one against the Phillies. Last time, I predicted that he’d blow one, and really, it wasn’t that difficult of a prediction. In a four-game series, it feels like he’s got another bad outing in him.

We have the latest round of results from MLB Reacts. The first question has to do with which division leader needs to have the most urgency at the deadline:

Since this poll went out, the Yankees have been surpassed in the American League East by the Tampa Bay Rays, the Mariners are now a half game back of the Rangers for first in the American League West, and the Guardians are tied with the Chicago White Sox for first in the A.L. Central.

In a vote of which contenders need to have the most urgency, Cleveland is not included, and so Seattle takes the top spot.

The Home Run Derby has gone to a “number of swings” system, which the majority of respondents think is a good thing:

And when asked which accomplishment they’d most like to see in person, watching a no-hitter was the clear favorite over the rest of the field:

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Our MLB expert picks for Monday, June 29 feature two plus-money plays!

See why the Cubs should beat the Padres in a rout, and why the total is too tall in a Golden State showdown tonight.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Neil Parker: CHC -1.5	+129
Joe Osborne: LAD/ATH u10.5	+100

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Neil Parker's expert pick: Cubs -1.5

Price: 44¢ (+129) at Polymarket

The wind is forecast to be blistering out at Wrigley Field, and the Chicago Cubs have paced the majors with 6.6 runs per game during their 12-4 heater while also ranking fourth in wOBA and seventh in xwOBA.

So, with the San Diego Padres sending righty Griffin Canning to the bump tonight, I’m anticipating another big night from the Chicago lineup.

Canning has surrendered a 52.1% hard-hit rate, which is tied for the lowest mark in the majors among pitchers with 40 innings, after all.

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Padres.TV, MARQ

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Dodgers vs A's Under 10.5

Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket

Eric Lauer has settled nicely into the Los Angeles Dodgers rotation, posting a 2.82 ERA in four appearances since coming over from Toronto. He's catching the Athletics at the right time, as they rank 27th in OPS over the past week.

On the other side, Gage Jump looks like a future ace, carrying a 2.04 ERA through six starts while coming off back-to-back scoreless outings. All six of his starts have resulted in the game total going Under.

The rookie draws a Dodgers lineup that's been shockingly bad against left-handed pitching, ranking 23rd vs. southpaws over the past month.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: SNLA, NBCSCA

More MLB best bets for today

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The New York Yankees are -133 home favorites against the Detroit Tigers on Monday night, but my Tigers vs. Yankeespredictions are taking the better starter at a plus-money price.

Read on for my free MLB picks for June 29.

Who will win Tigers vs Yankees today: Tigers moneyline (+119)

Despite nearly pulling off a dramatic late comeback last night, it's hard to back the New York Yankees right now.

Their offense is anemic, and the pitching hasn’t been great. I'm backing the Detroit Tigers tonight and would play them to -110.

Casey Mize gives Detroit the pitching edge over Ryan Weathers. Mize’s 3.16 xERA, .225 xBA allowed, and 36.1% hard-hit rate match up well against a Yankees lineup hitting .190 over its last 11 games.

Weathers may generate more swings-and-misses, but his 4.50 xERA, .459 xSLG allowed, and 11.7% barrel rateincrease damage risk.

COVERS INTEL:Mize has allowed a .279 expected wOBA, well below the MLB average of .316.

Tigers vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 8 (-115)

I’m playing the Under because the Yankees’ season-long run production is not matching their current form.

The Bronx Bombers nearly got no-hit last night in the midst of a sweep by the Red Sox, scoring just nine runs in four games while consistently leaving runners stranded.

Detroit has not been much cleaner, going 3-for-21 with runners in scoring position over its past two games.

Weathers is the risk because he gives up barrels, but Mize can suppress the better offense long enough to keep this game inside 8. My model makes this closer to 7.4 runs.

Tigers vs Yankees weather

The warm, 81-degree weather makes hitting conditions somewhat favorable, but there's little wind to speak of, and it's blowing right-to-left.

Tigers vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Tigers +120 | Yankees -133
• Run line: Tigers +1.5 | Yankees -15
• Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8

Tigers vs Yankees trend

The Tigers have hit the F5 moneyline in 17 of their last 30 games (+8.40 Units / 22% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Yankees.

How to watch Tigers vs Yankees and game info

Tigers vs Yankees latest injuries

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After Luis Garcia Jr. had what seemed like a breakout season in 2024, where he posted a 110 wRC+ and played above average defense at second base for the first time in his career, resulting in a 3.0 fWAR year, his numbers came crashing back down to Earth in 2025, posting a 91 wRC+ and playing subpar defense at second base, resulting in 0.7 fWAR over the full season. Entering 2026, his 7th season in the big leagues, many fans hoped he could at least come close to recreating the magic he had in 2024, or else his future with the Nats was in question with a new front office in town.

Things didn’t click for Garcia Jr. right away this season, as he posted a 76 wRC+ through March and April while struggling at his new home defensively, first base. Some frustrated fans, including myself, called for him to either be benched or DFA’ed, believing there were options in Triple-A for the Nats who could provide more value than Garcia Jr. was. Things started to click, however, in May for him, posting a strong 123 wRC+ and hitting 4 home runs, and he has gone ballistic in June, with a staggering 207 wRC+ and 11 home runs for the month.

So here we are in late June, and Luis Garcia Jr. has a 131 wRC+, the 33rd highest in all of baseball, 10th highest amongst first basemen, and 3rd highest on the Nats, behind only James Wood (143) and CJ Abrams (138), whom he has become within range of passing soon. How has Luis Garcia Jr. found another gear offensively in his 7th season in the major leagues? By not centering his game around hiding his weaknesses, but around exemplifying his strengths.

Luis Garcia Jr. has, and likely will always be, a chase hitter, running a below-average chase rate his entire career, often in the bottom 10th percentile among all big league hitters. Counter to what you may expect, however, some of the best seasons of Garcia Jr’s career have come when his chase rate is at its highest, with a 9th percentile chase rate during his breakout 2024 campaign and a 6th percentile chase rate this season.

Garcia Jr’s chase rate has risen 3% from 2025 to 2026, and his walk rate is a 4th percentile 4.1%, but what he is doing is swinging the bat harder, with his average bat speed rising 1 MPH, hitting the ball harder, with a 91st percentile average exit velocity of 92.4 MPH, and lifting the ball more than ever, with his average launch angle rising from 9.2 to 11.6. Rather than trying to plug one of the holes in his game, and hurting his skillset as a result, Garcia Jr. has made swinging hard and doing damage to the pull side his focus in 2026, and it is paying off in the form of a career year.

So what is the next step for Luis Garcia Jr.? Offensively, if there is a way for him to draw more walks while still providing the same power output he is currently, that would be ideal, but I wouldn’t dare mess with what he has going on right now. Defensively, Garcia Jr. has work to do at first base, as his -4 OAA ranks in the 13th percentile among all first basemen, and getting to even league average would help out both the Nats and Garcia Jr. himself tremendously.

With just a year and a half of service time remaining, Garcia Jr. may be a trade piece for Paul Toboni and the front office if they decide selling is best for the future this trade deadline. If we’re nearing the end of his tenure as a Nat, it has been a pleasure to see him develop and grow, from when he was a fresh-faced 20-year-old debuting in front of zero fans in 2020, to a slugging first baseman on the best Nationals club of his big league career. Whether he’s a Nat or not moving forward, he will be a player I look back on fondly when I look back on the 2020s as a decade for the Washington Nationals.

When you read about old baseball players, doesn’t it seem like they led more interesting lives than their current-day brethren? It seems so to me. Consider the life of Gus Zernial.

Zernial was born in Beaumont, Texas in 1923, one of ten children. He was a multi-sport star at Beaumont High and, after graduation, played one season with the Waycroft Bears, an unaffiliated team in the Class D Georgia-Florida League.

At the end of the season, Zernial joined the United States Navy, where he served three years as a radio technician.

The time in the Navy was good for Zernial. He went in at 6 ft. and 180 pounds and came out at 6’2″ and 220 pounds.

In 1946, he played for the Class C Burlington Bees and led the Carolina League in home runs (41) and slugging percentage. He also hit .333, drove in 111, and scored 114 times.

Cleveland selected him in that year’s Rule 5 draft and stashed him in AAA Baltimore. In late April 1947, they sold his rights to the Chicago White Sox. The Sox assigned him to their AAA affiliate, the Hollywood Stars of the Pacific Coast League.

Zernial was a star with the Stars, during which he picked up the nickname Ozark Ike. Ozark Ike was a popular comic strip that ran from the mid-1940s until 1958. Ozark Ike was the creation of Ray Gotto, who later in life designed the New York Mets logo.

While playing in Hollywood, Zernial was anointed with the title of being the next Joe DiMaggio. The handsome Zernial was chosen to pose with a young actress named Marilyn Monroe for a movie publicity shoot. Joe D later asked Zernial to introduce him to the blonde bombshell. The rest, as they say, is history. Once you’ve made commercials with peak Marilyn Monroe, what do you do for an encore?

Zernial made his major league debut on April 19th, 1949, against the Tigers. He hit his first major league home run a few days later off the St. Louis Browns’ Red Embree.

He established himself as one of the game’s best young power hitters during the 1950 and 1951 seasons with combined totals of 62 home runs and 222 RBI.

In April of 1951, the Sox engineered a three-team trade with Cleveland and the Philadelphia Athletics in which Philly received Dave Philley, Ray Murray, Sam Zoldak, and Zernial. The Sox received Minnie Miñoso in return.

Zernial played four seasons in Philadelphia, blossoming into one of the game’s most feared sluggers. During that four-year span, Zernial averaged 30 home runs and 100 RBI, while hitting .268. He picked up MVP votes in two seasons and made his only All-Star team in 1953.

Like most players, Zernial could get blisteringly hot. Over a four-game stretch in May of 1951, he scorched the Yankees and Browns, going 8-for-15 with seven home runs and 29 total bases. He had several huge games in his 11-year career, with the best coming on June 22nd, 1952, when he blistered Detroit pitching, going 5 for 6 with two home runs and 11 total bases, leading the Athletics to a 10-0 win.

Zernial moved west with the Athletics to Kansas City, where he continued to be a formidable power hitter. He played three seasons in KC, averaging 24 home runs and 66 RBI per season. Age was beginning to catch up to him, as well as nagging injuries. His best year in Kansas City would have been his first, 1955, when he banged 30 home runs and drove in 84.

In November of 1957, the Athletics put together a massive 13-player trade with the Detroit Tigers in which they sent Zernial, Billy Martin, Mickey McDermott, Tom Morgan, Lou Skizas, and Tim Thompson to Detroit. The Athletics got back seven players, the best being outfielder Bill Tuttle and catcher Frank House. In those days, the Athletics were always making massive off-season trades, desperately trying to remake their roster. Between 1955 and 1965, they made twelve separate trades of at least five players. Eight of those trades involved at least seven players.

Zernial played two more seasons in Detroit, but by this time he was already 35 and his once prodigious power was gone. He hit just 12 more home runs in the final 126 games of his career, the final one coming off Herb Score of the Indians on August 15th, 1959.

Zernial’s career numbers were solid: a career .265 batting average with 237 home runs and 776 RBI over an 11-year career. He led the American League in home runs in 1951 and led all of baseball in RBI that magical summer. He was always near the top of the league in outfield assists.

In retirement, Zernial did television commercials and was a sportscaster in Fresno. He did play-by-play for most of Fresno State’s sports teams for years and was instrumental in helping Fresno secure a minor league team.

He had a serious bout with cancer in 1992, being so close to death that he received last rites. He miraculously beat it and lived until January 20th, 2011, when he died of congestive heart failure at the age of 87.

What a life. Baseball prodigy. U.S. Navy veteran. All-Star baseball player. Worked with Marilyn Monroe. What more could a young man from Texas ask for?

After a rather underwhelming June in which it felt at times that the Rays were in free fall destined to repeat the 2025 season spiral, they rebounded and rattled off five consecutive wins. Now, 81 games down and eight sweeps later, they again sit atop the AL East with sole possession of the division lead for the first time since June 6th.

Junior Caminero has been leading the charge at the plate and Sunday was no exception. He got the party started in the first with a RBI-single and then launched a towering 463-foot bomb to the party deck in left-center field in the fifth inning to extend the Rays lead to 4-0. The blast was his seventh in six games.

The Rays added on in the second inning via the longball. Cedric Mullins hit his eighth of the year to right center. The solo shot gave the Rays a 2-0 lead. Then, Walls scored on a Yandy Diaz sac fly to give the Rays a 3-0 advantage.

Ben Williamson got in on the fun in the sixth with a solo shot of his own. His second homer of the year extended the lead to 5-0.

Rasmussen was again stellar, tossing six shutout innings and collecting his seventh win of the season. He punched out five, walked one, and allowed just three hits. His ERA now sits at 2.45.

Kimbrel, Cleavinger, and Martin wrapped things up on the mound for the Rays. Cleavinger allowed the only run of the day on a solo homer off the bat Ketel Marte. The score of 5-1 would hold as the Rays finished off the series sweep.

AL East sweeps appeared to be a popular weekend activity as the Red Sox completed a 4-game sweep of the Yankees, allowing the Rays to leapfrog the Bronx Bombers and retake first place in the East. The Rays will have Monday off before heading to Kansas City to face off against the Royals. Jax will get the start Tuesday as the team looks to keep the good times rolling.

Robbie Ray has been pitching in the Major Leagues since 2014. He’s appeared in 282 games, started 277 of those, and across all that time spent on the mound, his approach has always been straightforward. Throw the ball straight. Throw the ball hard.

We’re talking about the 4-seamer. The ol’ tried-and-true hardball.

Over his career Ray has rode the Pony Express to a pretty successful 10+ year Major League career. With some seasonal variety, his usage of the 4-seam fastball has hovered around 50%. When he earned his first All-Star nod in 2017, Ray threw the 4-seam 56% of the time. In 2025, his second All-Star honors and nearly a decade later, Ray threw it 52% of the time. When he won the AL Cy Young Award, the 4-seam usage peaked at 59% on the year. The lowest his 4-seam percentage has ever been across a whole season was 39% in 2022…until now. 

Ray’s 4-seam usage has officially dropped below 2022’s low to 38.7%. Tenths of a percentage point but still significant as it might be a signpost of what lies ahead. Sunday’s masterpiece against the Braves has a lot to do with this. Over 8 innings in a game in which he threw 95 pitches, Ray reached back and hurled his signature fastball just six times. 6.3% of his mix which is his lowest single-game usage of the 4-seam fastball over his entire 13 year career. And it worked! He got outs, just not in the way Ray, as a three-outcome pitcher, is typically used to getting outs. 24 outs were recorded by Ray, and just two of those 24 went down by way of the K. He didn’t throw a 4-seam fastball until the 6th inning — an inning he rarely sees considering the rear-back-and-huck, command-be-damned style he’s developed over the years. 

Let’s look at those years. Ray has completed 6 innings in 49% of his starts. He’s completed 8 innings in 5 (three of them with the Giants), and has now pitched at least 6 innings with 2 or fewer strikeouts just three times in his career. Everything about Sunday’s outing was an anomaly for Ray. He stuffed his 4-seamer in his back pocket and essentially forgot it there. In its stead, he relied on a trio of sinker (39%) – slider (23%) – change-up (26%). A Logan Webb type spread that got Logan Webb results: 4 hits, a walk and an unearned run over 8 innings and 95 pitches, with more groundouts than flyouts (10 – 9).

The reasoning behind the sinker shift is pretty straightforward. Ray had a rough May. He posted a 6.44 ERA over six starts and just 29.1 innings pitched with a string of four games in which he didn’t get through the 5th inning.

This rough patch coincided with a pretty rough patch for a headless rotation with Webb on the injured list. Ray didn’t fill the lead role when the team needed him to; rather, he kinda devolved like the rest of them. Starters couldn’t find their way deep into games which taxed an already ragtag and unreliable bullpen. It wasn’t pretty. Things needed to change.

The sure-fire way to pitch deep into a ballgame is to get quick outs. The quickest way to get quick outs is to induce contact. A strikeout requires a minimum of three pitches. An out by way of a ball in play, just one. As Logan Webb acolytes, this logic and philosophy is felt on a spiritual level. Ray is not Webb, and that has frustrated me, as I’m sure it has many of you. Ray’s whole approach to pitching is verticality. The 4-seamer is designed to ride up. He doesn’t rely on velocity (his average velo is about league average), it’s about perceived vertical movement. It’s supposed to invite swings and miss swings — but this can be a laborious way to retire a hitter. Borderline pitches at the top of the zone can be taken for balls, they can be fouled away. In this fastball acclimated league, ticking a piece off a straight pitch isn’t hard to do, and often, we’d see hitters drag Ray into these prolonged frustrating battles of 3-ball counts and countless foul tips and spoiled pitches. The longer an at-bat takes, the more it favors the hitter, and whole outings would be undermined by a couple of batters that matched Ray’s stubbornness. 

The sinker has a different look than the 4-seam. We know this. It’s heavier with more movement, an arm-side lilt with less rise than the 4-seamer. If a hitter takes a hack that would foul off a 4-seamer, or lift it dangerously into the air, that same swing would probably put a sinker in play but drive it into the ground. The sinker has just a 5% K-percentage, and its hard-hit percentage is much higher than Ray’s 4-seam (61% to 42%), but opponent’s average launch angle has been cut in half (24 degrees to 12). As scary as it is for someone like Ray who prefers whiffs and strikeouts, embracing contact can be positive. The sinker doesn’t have to be as fine, it doesn’t need to be painted as much as 4-seamer to be effective. It’s another way to get outs, to get them fast and keep Ray in the game — this was the thinking behind the sinker’s return. 

Ray’s sinker didn’t just come out of nowhere. It lingered around the periphery of Ray’s repertoire for his entire career. He used it as much as a quarter of the time in 2015 and 2016 before it dropped out of favor and went almost the way of the dodo in 2021. It had a resurgence in 2022, throwing it 20% of the time during his first year in Seattle, but as Ray struggled with coming back from Tommy John the following seasons, the pitch went dormant again. 

Of the 3,069 pitches Ray threw in 2025, a sinker accounted for two of them. According to Baseball Savant, he threw the sinker once over his first 9 starts of the 2026 season — that sinker was bunted for a single by Washington’s Nassim Nunez on April 19th. He didn’t throw another for a month, until May 18th when Ray’s sinker usage jumped to 13% and the 4-seam usage fell to 17% against Arizona. He got shelled for 9 earned runs. But that didn’t discourage him at all, because pitching isn’t solely about pitch usage. It’s about when you use a pitch, and how it’s paired with others. According to Fangraphs pitch value measurement, Ray’s sinker was actually the bright spot in that dismal outing against the D-Backs (1.08 Runs above average per 100 pitches compared to the 4-seam’s -19.05). While it hasn’t been perfect, the pitch’s run value has been positive as its usage has increased over Ray’s return to form in June. In his first start against Atlanta, in Atlanta, Ray used it 31% of the time on his way to allowing just 2 hits over 6.1 scoreless innings. His success in that start wasn’t based on the dominance of this new fastball type, but how the sinker complimented the 4-seam or set-up his change-up.

Maybe that’s the key here: the change-up. On Sunday, 10 of the 22 outs on balls in play were off Ray’s change-up, and it should’ve been 11 if not for Matt Chapman’s 8th inning error. Sinker and change are a classic and sophisticated pairing. The wine-and-cheese of a pitcher’s mix, and the recent sinker renaissance for Ray was probably facilitated by his ongoing success and comfort throwing the offspeed.  

For all the buzz Ray’s Tarik Skubal offspeed got in the offseason before 2025, it wasn’t particularly effective throughout the year. Spotty is a good descriptor. Ray used it 13% of the time, it accrued a -1 Run Value, or -0.2 RV/100.

Things are different now. So far this season, it’s statistically been his best pitch with a 2.6 RV/100 and accruing a Run Value of 7, putting it in the 99th percentile for offspeed offerings (as of Monday, 6/29). Ray throws the pitch exclusively to right-handers and they aren’t hitting it for average, nor are they slugging it for power. In 90 plate-appearances finished with the change-up this year, only three have resulted in an extra base hit. The last-one, a Corbin Carroll triple, dates back to that rough Arizona outing in mid-May.

A noticeable difference with the change-up is it’s been coming out of Ray’s hand a little harder, and because of that, it doesn’t fall away from righties as much as a change-up typically would. The offering is flatter than normal — like everything Ray throws. Mapping out its movement the pitch inhabits the same zone as the sinker, it just comes at the plate 6 beats slower on average. That’s a headache for a hitter, another thing to think about, another pitch-type and movement and speed to discern and deal with when facing Ray. The two offerings tunnel well off each other. They protect each other: the change-up providing back-up to the sinker, and vice-versa. Having them as known entities also helps to muddy the waters. Ray might never fully shake the hard fastball-slider reputation, but in 2026, he’s just not that guy anymore, which makes him harder to prep for, harder to sit back on and ambush, harder to frustrate and spoil, harder to chase off the mound.  

And just in time for the trade deadline!

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Tonight’s MLB player props slate is loaded with premium bats in strong matchups across the board, setting the stage for plenty of power upside.

The big question is whether elite sluggers like Yordan Alvarez or Pete Alonso can cash in and send one out of the yard for us tonight.

My best home run props for Monday, June 29 are banking on them to do just that.

Plus, I'll tell you why Brandon Lowe will jump the yard vs. the struggling Aaron Nola.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Yordan Alvarez	+215
Pete Alonso	+279
Brandon Lowe	+286
💲Today's HR parlay	+4303

Home run pick: Yordan Alvarez (+215)

Houston slugger Yordan Alvarez enters Monday’s slate with arguably the best matchup of the day, drawing Minnesota Twins right-hander Zebby Matthews, against whom Alvarez has nearly 100% arsenal coverage.

The Minnesota right-hander has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters, allowing nearly a 70% elevation rate, a 40% hard-hit rate, and an 11.5% barrel rate over his last 60 left-handed batters faced. Those hitters have posted a .663 xSLG and a .476 xwOBA during that span.

Despite Alvarez’s .200 average over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he is still generating a 43% hard-hit rate and a 14.3% barrel rate, while posting a .403 wOBA.

The price is not ideal, but given the overall matchup, it is justified.

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SCH, MNNT

Home run pick: Pete Alonso (+279)

For those who read how much I loved Baltimore Orioles slugger Pete Alonso to go Over 1.5 total bases against Sean Burke, in my MLB player props for tonight, how could I pass up his home run prop? Especially when the Chicago White Sox right-hander has allowed over a 76% elevation rate to the last 60 right handed hitters he has faced.

To add to that, Alonso has been seeing the ball extremely well of late, posting a 20% barrel rate, .792 SLG, and .523 wOBA over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.

This matchup has extra base hits written all over it. Hopefully one of them leaves the yard.

• Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CHSN, MASN

Home run pick: Brandon Lowe (+286)

Are the trends our friend? I like to think so, and Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Brandon Lowe has some of the strongest elite rating trends on the slate.

According to Batters-Box, in 95 elite ratings, he has homered 29.47% of the time. On the road, that number climbs to 32.5% across 55 samples.

Lowe has also been generating plenty of loud contact lately, posting a 56.5% hard-hit rate and an 8.75% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances against right handed pitching.

Lowe draws Philadelphia Phillies veteran Aaron Nola, who has also been allowing plenty of hard contact. Left-handed hitters have been elevating the ball nearly 80% of the time, while he has allowed a .580 xSLG over his last 30 faced.

Will one of the most consistently elite-rated hitters come through here? Fingers crossed.

Bonus: Bryan Reynolds has been even louder in that same split, with a 76% hard-hit rate and an 11.8% barrel rate over his last 30 against righties. He is worth a small sprinkle in this spot as well.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSP, SNP

Today’s HR parlay

Yordan Alvarez	Bet Now +4303
Pete Alonso
Brandon Lowe

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Two division leaders square off in Cleveland tonight as the Rangers and Guardians meet. Now, they are by far the worst divisions in baseball, but that’s besides the point.

The Rangers are 42-42 with a -8 run differential, 15th in team wRC+ at 101, 17th in baserunning runs above average at -1.3, 15th in defense at -11, 11th in starting pitcher ERA at 4.09 (3.99 FIP), and 11th in bullpen ERA at 3.82 (4.23 FIP).

The Guardians are 44-40 with a -8 run differential, 26th in team wRC+ at 91, 14th in baserunning runs above average at +1.6, tenth in Defense at -4.7, fifth in starting pitcher ERA at 3.66 (4.09 FIP), and 14th in bullpen ERA at 3.94 (3.85 FIP).

On paper, these teams look very evenly matched. The Guardians are going to need to do better than the 1-0/2-1 run-scoring strategy to win this series.

MATCHUPS:
Game One, Monday, 7:10PM – Parker Messick, LHP 2.67 ERA (3.15 FIP) vs. Tyler Alexander, LHP 2.62 ERA (3.33 FIP)/Winston Santos, RHP (5.66 FIP in the minors this year).
Game Two, Tuesday, 6:40PM – Tanner Bibee, RHP 3.78 ERA (4.56 FIP) vs. Jacob deGrom, RHP 3.55 ERA (3.58 FIP)
Game Three, Wednesday, 1:10PM ET – Joey Cantillo, LHP 3.87 ERA (4.33 FIP) vs. MacKenzie Gore, LHP 4.05 ERA (3.33 FIP)

The Rangers are led by Justin Foscue 132 wRC+, Joc Pederson 124 wRC+, Josh Jung 123 wRC+, Nicky Lopez 115 wRC+, Jake Burger 114 wRC+, Brandon Nimmo 111 wRC+, and Ezequiel Duran 109 wRC+. The Guardians are led by Travis Bazzana 119 wRC+, Chase DeLauter 111 wRC+, Brayan Rocchio 107 wRC+ and Kyle Manzardo 101 wRC+. Small sample size, but Kahlil Watson has a 112 wRC+ this year so far.

This would be the ideal time for the bats to come alive for Cleveland. How do you see the series going? Let us know in the comments below