We know where the regular season will end. In front of roughly 10,000 at sleepy Sutter Health Park, home to the Sacramento River Cats and their joint tenants, the A’s. The question is whether or not the Astros will be playing beyond this Sunday. Many (myself included) thought the divisional crown would come down to the final week but never in a million years did anyone foresee only 77 wins this late in the season.
Perhaps the warning signs were there all along. On April 1st, Houston was riding high, winners of five straight, a sweep of the Red Sox in which they outscored Boston by a margin of 23-7. One week later, that very same squad was swept out of Coors Field to the lowly Rockies. That wouldn’t be the only club to accomplish that feat. Sadly, the Cardinals, O’s, Rays and Braves also took out the brooms at various stages.
I can remember expressing concern to fellow colleagues at The Crawfish Boxes how the health of Josh Hader would be the key determining factor. Hader has been the most consistent player on the entire roster. Turns out, no one could’ve seen the Astros future rotation woes. Tatsuya Imai was as pleasant to watch at times as a canker-sore. Mike Burrows is on a milk carton. Peter Lambert last won a game when LeBron was still debating where he wanted to play, and remember Spencer Arrighetti? That guy just beat the Rangers, one of multiple games he’s won this month for the Blue Jays.
As great as Altuve’s 2,500 hits feat and Yordan’s flirtation with the Triple Crown have been, it comes down to six games.
As the Real Slim Shady once encouraged, “Please Stand Up, Please Stand Up.” Let’s open a series next week and play meaningful baseball in October once again.
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - AUGUST 02: A view of the stadium after the game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Baltimore Orioles is called in the sixth inning due to rain at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on August 2, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. The Philadelphia Phillies won 8-0. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Tonight’s game is already listed as delayed even though it isn’t to start for another 45 minutes (as I type this). I like how they say it: “Tonight’s game will start in delay”. They will wait as long as they can before calling the game.
When it does start, it will be Trey Yesavage will be starting.
Spencer Arrighetti was optioned to make room for Yesavage. Also Joe Mantiply was optioned to Buffalo and Chad Dallas makes his return to Dallas (well Arlington).
And the team has said that Dylan Cease doesn’t need surgery. He says the shoulder is ‘heavy and achy’. I think someone should take that as their screen name. I would bet that he won’t be pitching again this year, but I guess, until they are officially eliminated, they won’t say that out loud.
Baseball America has name Sean Keys as the Jays minor league player of the year. 28 home runs and 1.019 OPS. He’s in tonight’s lineup. Or tomorrow morning’s lineup, depending on when they the game going.
Here’s the lineups in case they do start.
Today’s Lineups
BLUE JAYS
ORIOLES
Brett Bateman – CF
Dylan Beavers – LF
Alejandro Kirk – C
Pete Alonso – 1B
Nathan Lukes – RF
Gunnar Henderson – SS
George Springer – DH
Coby Mayo – DH
Sean Keys – 1B
Christian Encarnacion-Strand – 3B
Kazuma Okamoto – 3B
Samuel Basallo – C
Josh Smith – LF
Rece Hinds – RF
Andres Gimenez – SS
Colton Cowser – CF
Ernie Clement – 2B
Jose Barrero – 2B
Trey Yesavage – RHP
Shane Baz – RHP
Go Jays Go (if you play).
Detroit’s Comerica Park is now going to be Fifth Third Park (the dumbest sounding name in baseball).
ST. LOUIS, MO - SEPTEMBER 19: Daylen Lile #4 of the Washington Nationals celebrates with CJ Abrams #5 after hitting a home run in the first inning during the game between the Washington Nationals and the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on Saturday, September 19, 2026 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Ali Overstreet/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
We are in the last week of the season. The Nats only have six more games until the 2026 season is over. This road series in Detroit will be the last one of the season. It is crazy that it is almost over. Spring Training still feels like yesterday but here we are.
With a righty on the mound, the Nats have a lot of lefties at the top of the lineup. Abimelec Ortiz will be hitting third at first base. Daylen Lile will be the DH today which means James Wood is in left, Jacob Young is in center and Dylan Crews is in right. Jorbit Vivas plays second which moves CJ Abrams to short. DJ Herz will be on the mound for the first time since 2024 in this contest. Welcome back DJ!
The Tigers are loading up on right handed bats tonight. Riley Greene will be the only lefty in the lineup for AJ Hinch. Javier Baez will actually be playing center field in this one. The long time infielder has been playing more outfield the past couple of years. River Ryan was a major piece in the Tarik Skubal trade at the deadline. The 28 year old prospect has nasty stuff but has struggled to stay healthy. He is on the mound in this one.
This pitching matchup should be an exciting one. Both of these guys have good stuff but have not been available much. They are on the mound tonight though. Each of them are making their season debut. Follow along in the comments down below and let’s go Nats!
ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 18: Interim Manager Chad Tracy #17 of the Boston Red Sox walks through the tunnel before a game against the Tampa Bay Rays on September 18, 2026 at at Tropicana Field in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) | Getty Images
On June 25, the Red Sox were 32-46. The season looked over. Most people had stopped paying attention, and that was a reasonable call.
They ended up becoming the first team in MLB history to lose 46 of their first 78 games and still finish above .500. The 15-game win streak in July—which tied the all-time franchise record—was the moment that flipped it, but it wasn’t just that. Then came August. Then came September. Even with all the ups and downs. They went from 14 games under .500 to 14 games above .500 in 62 days. The only team in MLB history to do it faster was the 1914 Miracle Boston Braves, who got there in 60 days and then swept the World Series.
That’s the company this team is keeping. That’s the thing you just watched.
They clinched it Sunday despite losing 5-1 to Tampa, thanks to the Astros losing to Atlanta. The magic number hit zero in a visiting clubhouse, against a team that seemingly has the division all wrapped up. Back-to-back postseason berths for the first time since the 2016-2018 run. 85-72. Wild card.
How vindicated must Craig Breslow feel? After firing Alex Cora and crew in late April, NO ONE had any hope this team could do anything. They changed the entire ethos around this ballclub in one fell swoop and are actually starting to accomplish the mission Breslow came to Boston to achieve: sustained success.
The October questions are coming—lineup depth, roster decisions, whether this group can actually win a series when it matters. All of it. But that’s not what today is. This week is for the people who were still watching in June when this looked done.
NEW YORK, NY - SEPTEMBER 14: Dylan Beavers #12 of the Baltimore Orioles makes a catch during the game between the Baltimore Orioles and the New York Mets at Citi Field on Monday, September 14, 2026 in New York, New York. (Photo by Phebe Grosser/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Update: The Orioles announced that tonight’s game willstart in a delay. The team said it would announce updates as they become available.
The Orioles postseason hopes have all but vanished, but they’ll still play the remainder of their schedule. Nobody can blame you if you’ve checked out on this disappointing season. But if you’re reading this now, you’re probably down to watch a few more baseball games while you still can.
Shane Baz will take the mound hoping for some late season run support. He’ll need to get it from a lineup that features Rece Hinds in right field and José Barrero at second base. Barrero is a career .182 hitter over five seasons (161 games). Tonight will mark his Orioles debut.
Dylan Beavers will leadoff and play left field. Pete Alonso (first base) and Gunnar Henderson (shortstop) will follow. Coby Mayo will bat fourth and DH against Toronto starter Trey Yesavage.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand will hit fifth and play third base. Samuel Basallo will catch Baz, and center fielder Colton Cowser will round out the lineup with Hinds and Barrero.
The Orioles (75-81) can only finish .500 this year. They would clinch a second-consecutive losing season with a loss today.
BALTIMORE – Dylan Cease will not require surgery on his balky right shoulder, leaving the Toronto starting pitcher free to build back up over the off-season and follow up his Cy Young-caliber campaign with another good season in 2027.
The bad news is that Cease likely won’t have a reason to return in 2026.
Cease said Monday, Sept. 21 that an MRI and other examinations determined inflammation in his shoulder, a relief to pitcher and club after he left his last start in the third inning with shoulder discomfort amid diminished velocity.
Cease, in the first season of a seven-year, $210 million contract, said his shoulder first felt funny as he warmed up for a July 25 start against Boston. He threw a one-hit shutout, striking out 12 that night, part of a 10-start run in which he posted a 1.89 ERA, struck out 89 in 62 innings and posted a 5-0 record.
But all the while, his velocity was diminishing. During his Friday start at Texas, the discomfort proved untenable. He walked six in 2 2/3 innings and gave up four runs, one earned, in an 11-6 loss at Texas.
“The velocity being down has been a little concerning but at the same time, I was getting outs,” says Cease. “It wasn’t anything too scary. Nothing about it feels like I need surgery. I was never really panicked or worried. Just more of an inconvenience that I couldn’t maximize my best self.
“The last couple starts, velo kept going down and down and then command – that last one, it almost felt like I was hurting the team.”
The Blue Jays lost both Cease’s start and the next night at Texas, two defeats that were likely the fatal blows to their wild card hopes. Manager John Schneider said Monday that the club will assess both Cease’s health and the relevance of their final three games against Cincinnati at Rogers Centre to determine if he’ll pitch.
“Him feeling better, with this time down, and feeling like himself and obviously the game meaning a lot,” says Schneider of the necessary conditions for a Cease return. “If those two things line up, hopefully he’ll be good to go.”
Toronto enters a three-game series at Baltimore with a 77-79 record, three games behind the Chicago White Sox for the final wild card, though the White Sox hold the tiebreaker so the deficit is effectively four games.
The Blue Jays do hold the tiebreaker over the AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians, who lead them by 3 1/2 games, but their elimination number is three entering Monday.
Cease, 30, is enjoying the first All-Star season of his career. His 239 strikeouts in 169 innings have boosted him to atop the AL leaderboard in strikeouts per nine innings, at 12.7. His 2.40 ERA ranks second to Cy Young Award favorite Cam Schlittler and he leads the AL in fielding independent pitching (2.55).
SAN FRANCISCO — The Giants’ final homestand of the 2026 MLB season started with positive feelings on the position player side, but another injury on the pitching side.
Behind a top prospect and an outfielder who has made a second-half statement, they got a 5-2 win over the Minnesota Twins. The victory was the 65th of the season and guaranteed that the Giants would come up short of their 98 losses in 2017, their most since moving to Third and King.
A debut always brings some buzz, and Bo Davidson’s brought a little extra to Oracle Park. The organization’s top outfield prospect singled in his first at-bat and got a standing ovation. That hit helped ignite an early two-run rally, and Drew Gilbert tacked on two more in the second with a single. Gilbert’s homer in the fifth made it 5-1 and continued a breakout second half for the young outfielder.
The good vibes dissipated quite a bit in the fourth when Blade Tidwell became the latest Giants starter to come out of the game with an injury, but the bullpen continued his good work, with Tristan Beck, Sam Hentges and Jason Foley getting the lead to Trent Harris, who picked up his second save.
Not Again …
Tidwell’s 57th pitch was a sweeper, and he grimaced as it left his hand. He immediately waved his glove at the dugout, and a minute later he was headed back to the clubhouse with a member of the training staff.
Blade Tidwell came out of the game with a trainer after appearing to suffer an injury pic.twitter.com/UcRkHUOQsq
The injury came at a time when Tidwell was continuing to show that he should get an opportunity to be in the mix next season. He had four strikeouts and had allowed just one run over 3 1/3 innings, continuing the progress he made last week in St. Louis, when he allowed two earned over 6 2/3 innings.
If that was the end of his season — and it certainly looked like it was — Tidwell made 16 appearances, including eight starts in the second half. He posted a 4.45 ERA and 4.74 FIP, with 46 strikeouts in 56 2/3 innings.
The Giants already have lost young starters Hayden Birdsong, Carson Whisenhunt and Trevor McDonald to elbow injuries this season. Birdsong is the only one who is considered an option for 2027.
The Debut
Davidson joined a pretty cool list before he ever swung the bat. He became the first Giant since Dan Gladden in 1983 to bat third in his MLB debut, and just the sixth over the past 75 years. Two of the others are Willie Mays and Willie McCovey.
When Davidson did swing the bat, it was ferocious. He took a huge cut at a 95 mph fastball from right-hander Zebby Matthews and then battled for several minutes before driving the ninth pitch of the at-bat into right field. Davidson immediately stole second, which allowed him to score on Brett Harris’ single.
With that sequence, Davidson became the first Giant since Johnny Vergez to get a hit, a stolen base and a run in his big league debut. He grounded out in his next two at-bats and then struck out.
The Debut, Part II
The Giants and Marcelo Mayer wanted the infielder to get on the field before the end of the year, but the calendar didn’t help. The Triple-A season ended on Sunday while Mayer was finishing his rehab from a foot injury. He went in the lineup — and the cleanup spot — Monday without a rehab assignment, and he had not taken live at-bats since Aug. 18 with the River Cats.
Mayer looked predictably rusty, striking out in all four of his at-bats. The plan is to get him a few games this week at DH so he feels a bit more comfortable heading into the offseason. At the moment, the Giants envision him as a strong option to start at second base in 2027.
Entering the final week of the regular season, the Dodgers more or less know their postseason fate.
They’ve locked up the National League West. They are a seemingly safe four games clear of the Atlanta Braves for a first-round bye. And, unless they can close a two-game gap on the Milwaukee Brewers without holding the tiebreaker, they will finish as the NL’s No. 2 seed, getting home-field advantage at least for the NL Division Series.
Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell of the Los Angeles Dodgers celebrate a 10-4 win over the San Francisco Giants with Mookie Betts at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026. Getty ImagesLos Angeles Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, left, pitcher Tarik Skubal, middle, and manager Dave Roberts celebrate after clinching the National League West title after a game against the Cincinnati Reds, Thursday, September 17, 2026, at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Thus, the real intrigue for now is who might be on the Dodgers’ postseason roster when the playoffs begin next month.
This year, injuries and fluctuating performances have forced them to cycle 53 different players through their clubhouse.
And while the core of the group is clear, many questions remain about how the club will construct its lineup and pitching staff for this fall’s pursuit of a third-straight World Series.
Here is the California Post’s best guess about how it will all shake out.
Lineup locks
Will Smith, Freddie Freeman, Tommy Edman, Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, Teoscar Hernández, Andy Pages, Kyle Tucker, Shohei Ohtani, Kiké Hernández, Miguel Rojas, Hunter Feduccia
Teoscar Hernández and Kyle Tucker have cemented their place as everyday hitters thanks to late-season surges. Andy Pages is due back on Tuesday from a fractured hand. Freddie Freeman still seems somewhat limited by his right knee injury, but has nonetheless been able to manage it well enough to this point. And while Tommy Edman has been slumping lately, he doesn’t seem to be in immediate danger of losing at-bats.
Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers works out before a game against the San Francisco Giants, Saturday, September 19, 2026, at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles. Getty Images
On the bench, Hunter Feduccia has locked up the back-up catching job, and could be a left-handed hitting option as a pinch-hitter. Kiké Hernández and Miguel Rojas, meanwhile, each provide versatile defensive depth, as well as extensive track records for postseason heroics when called upon.
Entering the final week of the regular season, the core of the Dodgers’ position player group looks as they expected.
Dodgers Lineup questions
Bubble candidates: Josue De Paula, Dalton Rushing, Alex Call, Alex Freeland, Hyeseong Kim
The Dodgers will still have one, if not two, position player spots to fill depending on how they construct their roster (i.e. an even 13 pitchers/13 hitters, or a 12/14 split like they used last year?)
And for those, they could have a number of difficult decisions.
Josue de Paula (95) of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts after hitting a double during the fifth inning against the San Francisco Giants, Sunday, Sept. 20, 2026, at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles. Getty Images
If he does, it will likely be as a left-handed bench bat; though if there is any lingering uncertainty with Ohtani, he could also provide insurance as a backup DH option. His main competition right now figures to be Alex Call (who might be redundant to Rojas and Hernández as a right-handed bench bat) or Dalton Rushing (who is an intriguing alternative as a left-handed bat, but remains sidelined from the setback he suffered with his elbow injury earlier this month).
In just 10 MLB games, De Paula has quickly built a strong case, showing supreme plate discipline (10 walks to only four strikeouts) and the potential for power (three doubles, one home run, seven RBIs). At this point, it might be more of a surprise if he doesn’t make it.
If the Dodgers elect to carry an extra position player on top of that, the choices are even more varied.
Last year, they rostered two base-running/defensive specialists throughout the playoffs in infielder Hyeseong Kim and outfielder Justin Dean. Dean is now gone, and Hernández could serve as a late-game defensive outfield replacement anyway. But Kim remains in consideration, manager Dave Roberts said, thanks to his speed and infield glove. Alex Freeland could also factor in here, as someone capable of providing more at the plate.
Los Angeles Dodgers second baseman Hyeseong Kim (6) hits a sacrifice fly for center fielder Andy Pages (44) to score during the bottom of the fifth inning of a game against the Texas Rangers at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, Friday, April 10, 2026. Carlin Stiehl for CA Post
Lineup projection for Los Angeles
C: Will Smith
1B: Freddie Freeman
2B: Tommy Edman
SS: Mookie Betts
3B: Max Muncy
LF: Teoscar Hernández
CF: Andy Pages
RF: Kyle Tucker
DH: Shohei Ohtani
Bench: Kiké Hernández, Miguel Rojas, Hunter Feduccia, Josue De Paula, Hyeseong Kim*
The Dodgers’ starting rotation is set, assuming no further setbacks with Blake Snell’s groin injury. The back end of the bullpen has come into focus, too, with Tanner Scott and/or Roki Sasaki the most logical candidates to serve as closer, and Alex Vesia and Evan Phillips separating themselves as the team’s next most-trusted high-leverage relief options.
Roki Sasaki #11 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches during the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park in Atlanta, Wednesday, Aug. 26, 2026. Getty Images
The only real question here is how the Dodgers will line up the rotation. Yamamoto-Skubal would make sense for Games 1 and 2 of a division series (keeping them both on-line for a potential Game 5). But could Tyler Glasnow’s potential issues with traveling tempt the Dodgers to use him primarily at home, if they can? All factors to consider in the coming weeks.
Pitching staff questions
Roster bubble candidates: Brock Stewart, Edwin Díaz, Blake Treinen, Kris Bubic, Jack Dreyer, Emmet Sheehan, Justin Wrobleski, Edgardo Henriquez, Will Klein, Eric Lauer
The first thing the Dodgers need to figure out here is health.
Edgardo Henriquez will almost certainly be on the playoff roster, and pitching in a high-leverage role, if he can make a full recovery from his recent back strain. Will Klein and Eric Lauer might also be available health-wise, though lack clear roles to step immediately back into.
Otherwise, the Dodgers will effectively have at least four open spots for six to seven other pitchers.
Los Angeles Dodgers’ Edwin Diaz (3) celebrates the third out and an 8-2 win over the San Francisco Giants at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, Friday, September 18, 2026. Getty Images
For added right-handed depth, they might be deciding between Brock Stewart (who has been a go-to weapon against right-handed hitters recently), Edwin Díaz (who is trying to salvage his dismal debut season, and did throw a pair of scoreless outings this weekend) and Blake Treinen (who has curiously pitched only five times in three weeks since being activated from the injured list, and not in the highest of leverage).
For another left-handed option, they could go with Kris Bubic (the trade deadline acquisition who has impressed with three scoreless appearances since returning from an injury) or Jack Dreyer (who was one of the Dodgers’ best relievers from June to August, but has given up five runs in his last seven outings).
There are many permutations that the Dodgers could employ depending on opponent. They’re still figuring out the exact hierarchy of all their bullpen arms, too.
But as long as their rotation is dominant, everything else should take care of itself.
TULSA, OKLAHOMA - APRIL 19: Josue de Paula #55 of the Tulsa Drillers swings the bat during a game against the Arkansas Travelers at ONEOK Field on April 19, 2026 in Tulsa, Oklahoma. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Dodgers top prospect Josue De Paula has become major league stretch-run contributor over the last week and a half. But that followed a wonderful season in Double-A Tulsa, and on Monday he was named Texas League MVP.
De Paula with the Drillers hit .303/.401/.547 with a 145 wRC+, 27 home runs, 37 doubles, 106 runs scored, 104 RBI, and 31 stolen bases in 124 games. He set career highs across the board, including more than doubling his previous marks for home runs (previous high of 12) and extra-base hits (66, up from 30).
He led the league in runs scored, RBI, hits, doubles, and was in top five in the league in OPS, slugging percentage, on-base percentage, batting average, home runs, stolen bases, total bases (274), and extra-base hits.
De Paula hasn’t stopped producing since getting his first call-up to the majors, reaching base 18 times in 38 trips to the plate with his 10 walks more than doubling his four strikeouts, hitting .286/.474/.500 with three doubles and a home run in his first 10 games in the majors.
Eric Wedge was named Texas League manager of the year, the fifth Tulsa Drillers manager to capture the award, and the first since Tim Ireland in 2002 when Tulsa was a Texas Rangers affiliate. This honor comes 19 years after Wedge won American League manager of the year with Cleveland in 2007.
The Cubs haven’t yet said anything about the frightening injury to third baseman Alex Bregman during Sunday’s game in Cincinnati. I’ll spare you more photos, you’ve probably seen enough of Bregman’s swollen left eye.
We do have this update from ESPN’s Jeff Passan:
Chicago Cubs star Alex Bregman suffered multiple facial fractures after being struck by a foul ball while standing in the on-deck circle Sunday, sources tell ESPN. Bregman will not undergo surgery and is hopeful to return in the postseason.
So… at this point what we have is “hopeful.” What that post also says is that Bregman likely will not return for the six games remaining in the regular season.
Could he be ready to play a week from tomorrow when the Cubs will (presumably) be opening a Wild Card Series… somewhere, either at Wrigley Field or on the road? I suppose that depends on how quickly the swelling around his eye goes down and how he feels.
Will they place Bregman on the injured list? If the Cubs do that, he’d be out for the Wild Card Series. My feeling is that they won’t, hoping that he could play by then and that they can manage a roster a player short for the next six games.
It seems likely that Pedro Ramirez will play third base, mostly, with Matt Shaw possibly taking a game or two there. The Cubs also have Gabriel Arias to back up all three infield positions.
If the Cubs do decide to IL Bregman, I suppose they’d call up James Triantos, who can play third base, though most of his experience this year is at second base.
ATLANTA, GA - AUGUST 15: Atlanta Braves injured pitcher Robert Suarez looks on from the dugout during the MLB game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Atlanta Braves on August 15, 2026 at TRUIST Park in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
All eyes have been on Robert Suarez, one of the Braves’ prized offseason additions, as he rehabs and recovers from an elbow ailment that has cost him the last three months of the season.
Following his first rehab appearance with the Gwinnett Stripers on Sunday — which was Gwinnett’s final game of the season — it was a bit unclear what the next steps would be as he continues ramping up with hopes of pitching in the postseason.
On Monday afternoon, Alex Anthopoulos went on 680 The Fan Radio and was asked about Suarez. While Alex did not guarantee anything, he said it was “highly likely” that Suarez would be activated to the active roster “relatively soon,” perhaps on Wednesday or Thursday.
Alex also mentioned that Suarez, who is currently on the 60-day IL, will need a roster spot opened for his return. My guess would be Owen Murphy, who does not seem very likely to be in the Braves’ postseason mix and has options. But we will see.
Regardless, the healthy return of Suarez would be a major development for the Braves as they make final preparations for the postseason. We will see how he looks whenever he gets his name called in a few days.
The Boston Red Sox have officially clinched a postseason berth, completing one of the most improbable turnarounds in MLB history.
But the real test begins next week. After falling to the New York Yankees in last year’s Wild Card Series, Boston is looking to make a deeper October run this time around, and it looks like the Yankees will once again stand in the way.
It’s been a total team effort for Boston all season long, but the playoffs are where stars emerge and the margin for error becomes razor thin. While nearly everyone on the postseason roster will play a role, we’ve narrowed it down to the 10 players who could have the biggest impact on how far this team goes.
Here are the 10 most important — not necessarily the best — Red Sox players for the 2026 playoffs:
1. Payton Tolle, SP
What a difference a year makes. Last year, Tolle experienced growing pains in his first MLB stint and pitched just 1/3 of an inning in the Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium. This time, he’s coming off an exceptional rookie campaign with a chance to start Game 1 in the Bronx.
Tolle will enter the postseason with momentum on his side. The 23-year-old tallied 12 strikeouts while allowing just one run in six innings against Baltimore. He followed that up with six shutout innings against Kansas City, including an immaculate inning to begin the game.
If Tolle continues to perform at this level, he’ll give the Red Sox another frontline starter who can match up against other teams’ aces. He’s the pitcher with the greatest opportunity to change the trajectory of this postseason roster.
If the Red Sox make a deep postseason run, it’ll be because their rookie left-hander delivered each time he took the mound on the big stage.
2. Sonny Gray, SP
We’re sticking with pitching, because pitching is what propelled this Red Sox club to a postseason berth in the first place.
If Tolle is No. 1, it would be silly not to put Gray right behind him at No. 2. The 36-year-old veteran stabilized the rotation in the wake of Garrett Crochet’s injury. He was signed to be the No. 3 starter behind Crochet and Ranger Suarez, but he performed like an ace with a 17-5 record and a 2.82 ERA in 28 starts.
Now, Boston will lean on Gray and his big-game experience to lead the staff in October. Even if he doesn’t start Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, Gray will play a huge role in any postseason success.
3. Roman Anthony, LF/DH
The top position player on our list is the 22-year-old many expected to anchor Boston’s lineup and produce an MVP-caliber season in 2026. Instead, Anthony spent most of the year on the injured list and has largely struggled in the 50 games he’s been healthy. We know what the former No. 1 prospect is capable of, however, and he’ll significantly raise the Red Sox’ ceiling if he plays up to his potential in the postseason.
The Red Sox will lean heavily on their pitching staff throughout the playoffs, but Anthony is the X-factor in the lineup. This is a completely different club when he gets hot.
All it will take is a signature postseason moment for Red Sox fans to forget about the disappointing start to Anthony’s young career.
4. Ranger Suarez, SP
OK, back to pitching. A big reason the Red Sox signed Suarez to a five-year, $130 million contract in free agency is that he has a stellar postseason track record. The 31-year-old boasts a 1.48 ERA across 11 playoff appearances (eight starts) with the Philadelphia Phillies.
The only reason he isn’t higher on this list is we project him to be the No. 3 starter, which means we won’t even see him if the Sox get swept out of the Wild Card Series. If Boston advances, another strong postseason from Suarez will be critical for their World Series chances.
5. Wilyer Abreu, RF
Abreu is one of Boston’s best all-around players, but he’s a streaky hitter. The Red Sox’ mediocre offense can’t afford for him to go cold in the postseason, so he’s an incredibly important piece if they hope to make a deep run.
When he’s hot, Abreu’s bat is elite. He leads the American League with 36 doubles along with 24 homers in 151 games.
As important as his bat will be, Abreu’s Gold Glove defense in right field will also be a difference-maker. Postseason games can come down to one defensive miscue, and Abreu has earned a reputation as one of the best defensive right fielders in baseball.
If Abreu can give the Red Sox consistent at-bats and quality defense, he can quietly become one of the most impactful players on the roster over an entire series.
6. Willson Contreras, 1B
We’ve got the Venezuelan sluggers back-to-back. Contreras has been the Red Sox’ most consistent bat all season, and he’ll be leaned on heavily in the heart of the lineup throughout the playoffs.
Unlike most of Boston’s lineup, Contreras will enter the Wild Card Series with plenty of postseason experience. He won a World Series with the 2016 Chicago Cubs and has 30 playoff games under his belt in total.
With a team-high 27 homers, Contreras will be counted on to supply the Red Sox lineup with power throughout their playoff run. If he goes cold, there will be even more pressure on guys like Anthony, Abreu, and the player who’s next up on our list to get runs on the board.
7. Adley Rutschman, C
Rutschman will need to step it up offensively, but his importance goes beyond his bat because of his position. One could argue the role he plays behind the plate is even more crucial.
As Boston’s starting catcher, Rutschman will be responsible for managing the pitching staff through almost every postseason game, meaning he’ll be involved on almost every pitch thrown. There’s also a significant downgrade at catcher if he goes down with an injury, with only Connor Wong and Mickey Gasper as his potential backups.
For the Red Sox to make it far, Rutschman has to be more than just a productive hitter; he must also work seamlessly with the rotation and bullpen while living up to his reputation as one of the best defensive backstops in the league.
8. Aroldis Chapman, CP
Having a closer who can slam the door shut gives clubs a huge advantage come postseason time. The Red Sox are fortunate to have arguably the best of the bunch.
While Chapman wasn’t otherworldly in 2026 like he was in 2025, he still was elite with a 1.95 ERA in 52 appearances. He’ll look to limit free passes after watching his walk rate jump from 2.2 to 4.1 BB/9 over last year. If he does that, Boston can effectively shorten games by having him available for the ninth inning. He can also single-handedly lose games, automatically making him one of the club’s most important players for the postseason.
9. Garrett Whitlock, RP
Boston’s bullpen is perhaps its biggest strength heading into the postseason, and that’s because of the Whitlock/Chapman combo at the back end. Whitlock has been an elite set-up man with a 1.75 ERA and 0.877 WHIP across 53 appearances this season.
Starters typically have shorter outings in the playoffs, so we could see the Red Sox turn to Whitlock early and often throughout October if they advance past the Wild Card Series. He’s the reliever Boston will count on to mow down the heart of an opposing lineup in a high-leverage situation. That could be the difference between a win and a loss, and that’s why Whitlock makes the top 10 over some other very important players.
10. Ceddanne Rafaela, CF
Rafaela rounds out our top 10 most important Red Sox players for the postseason, but don’t let his ranking fool you. With elite defense in center field and a bat that made a significant leap this season, he can be considered another X-factor for this club in the playoffs.
If Boston makes a deep run, there’s a good chance we’ll get at least one signature Rafaela moment. The 26-year-old has a knack for coming up big in the clutch, whether it’s with a timely extra-base hit or a mind-blowing catch in center field.
Rafaela’s glaring absence during his time on the injured list with a quad injury has highlighted his importance to this club. If he’s back to full strength in time for the playoffs, that’ll give the Red Sox a major boost.
Honorable mentions: 3B Caleb Durbin, SS Trevor Story, LF/DH Jarren Duran, RP Erik Miller, RP Tyron Guerrero, P Brayan Bello and P Jake Bennett.
They didn’t crack the top 10, but that doesn’t mean they won’t have huge roles in October.
Durbin completely changes the outlook of the offense when he’s hitting. He’s also been an elite defensive third baseman all season long.
Story has been one of Boston’s best hitters since returning from the injured list. There’s no guarantee that’ll carry over into the playoffs, but he’ll at least have to be adequate defensively as the team’s starting shortstop.
Duran had a 2026 to forget, and with Anthony in left field and Mickey Gasper likely at DH, he’ll probably spend a fair amount of time on the bench. Still, he’s the type of player who can change a game with one swing, and his speed is a huge factor.
Miller and Guerrero will have major roles at the back end of the bullpen. Bello (if he makes the roster) and Bennett will be leaned on as bulk relievers. Miller has struggled lately, Guerrero is returning from injury, Bello is unproven in the playoffs, and we haven’t seen Bennett come out of the ‘pen.
A familiar scene unfolded in the fourth inning of the Giants’ game against the Minnesota Twins on Monday night at Oracle Park.
With the Giants leading 4-1, right-hander Blade Tidwell, who had tossed 3 1/3 frames of one-run ball, threw a sweeper for a ball to Ryan Jeffers and immediately signaled to the dugout that something was wrong. Moments later he walked off the mound with a trainer, and Tristan Beck replaced him.
Blade Tidwell came out of the game with a trainer after appearing to suffer an injury pic.twitter.com/UcRkHUOQsq
And on July 20, Trevor McDonald left the game after warming up in the fifth inning with an injury that ended up requiring Tommy John surgery, too.
The Giants have suffered a myriad of injuries during a 2026 MLB season that has gone wrong in just about every way imaginable. Earlier Monday, the team placed Jung Hoo Lee on the 10-day IL and Bryce Eldridge on the seven-day concussion list as well.
San Francisco certainly is hoping for the best despite how things looked for Tidwell, who was coming off a stellar start against the St. Louis Cardinals last week as he makes his case for a rotation spot next season.
We’re nearly there folks. The Yankees have just seven games left in the regular season, with only the thinnest of hopes at the division title left. The Rays will eliminate the Yankees from AL East contention with a combinationwin and a Yankees loss, and with the four-game set between the two about to kick off in the middle of this week that means that New York would essentially have to run the table from here to steal away the division crown. Their most recent outing in Arizona was a letdown as they lost two of three and had some self-inflicted wounds that prevented them from taking the middle game, but truth be told the Yankees have played well overall, owning one of the best records post-Deadline of any American League team — the only problem is the Rays have been a hair better than them through that same stretch, preventing them from gaining any ground whatsoever.
The good news is that the Yankees’ lead over Boston is as secure as the Rays’ lead over them, with a 5.5 game advantage plus the tiebreaker entering the final week of play. That all but assures that they’ll be playing the Wild Card Round at Yankee Stadium, but their fate is still largely up in the air for how far they can go. Aaron Judge’s immediate future is a question mark after he strained his calf trying to get involved without rehab games down the stretch, Ryan Weathers won’t be getting into any of these last regular season games, and Clarke Schmidt was unavailable for precautionary measures over the weekend. What are the Yankees going to do with Judge, and would it be safer to just shut him down? Can they make it far without him if they do or if he misses a significant amount of October? And can they survive the gauntlet run against Boston and Tampa regardless of who is available? If you have questions like these, or anything else on your mind, send ‘em in for a chance to be featured in our Yankees mailbag.
Answers will run on Friday afternoon. All questions received by the night of September 24th will be considered. You can leave your submissions in the comment section below or by e-mail to pinstripealleyblog [at] gmail [dot] com.
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - AUGUST 21: Seattle Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and Seattle Mariners CEO John Stanton look on before the game between the Seattle Mariners and the Chicago Cubs at T-Mobile Park on August 21, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Mariners are not the worst team in baseball anymore.
That hasn’t always been obvious these last few months. The Mariners have been terrible in the second half of the season. They’ve confirmed a losing record for the first time since 2021 and are all but eliminated from contention. In fact, they’ve been so bad one could fairly argue they were underdogs going into their recent series against the lowly A’s and Angels — they lost all three series. I even went so far as to say they were a push against the Rockies over the weekend. And that wound up being a fair assessment. They won the series but walked away with an even run differential at 10 runs scored and allowed.
Still, I have to give credit where it’s due. The series did move the Mariners ahead of the Rockies by WAR since the All-Star break. They are now merely the second worst team in the majors in the second half:
Team
Batters
Pitchers
Total
COL
2.6
1.7
4.3
SEA
5.8
0.6
6.4
ATH
3.4
3.3
6.7
CIN
3.3
4.0
7.3
SFG
3.0
4.4
7.4
Now, all of my league-worst doomsaying generally comes down to these WAR leaderboards. If we look at actual wins and losses, the Mariners are more like the sixth worst team in the majors in the second half, and not all that notable in a historic context. There’s reasons for this discrepancy, and WAR isn’t always the best at capturing the nuance in team-level performance in small (going on medium) samples.
But I think it’s worth understanding just how bad the Mariners look from this “true talent” perspective. This isn’t just a normal slump that every team goes through at some point in the season. This is the worst the Mariners have played in a half season this century:
Year
Half
Batters
Pitchers
Total
2026
2nd
5.8
0.6
6.4
2008
2nd
6.1
0.4
6.5
2010
2nd
6.7
-.01
6.6
2011
2nd
4.4
3.6
8.0
2019
2nd
5.2
3.3
8.5
The 2026 team is right there with the 2008 and 2010 teams by WAR in the second half. Again, both those teams lost far more games in either half, but it’s notable that the 2026 squad is comparable.
Now, “half” seasons are a misnomer. The split you see at FanGraphs or Baseball Reference simply denotes where the All-Star break divided the season in two, rather than equal 81-game stretches. For instance, the Mariners played 74 games in the second half of 2010, while they’ll only play 65 games in the second half of this year. In other words, on a rate basis, the Mariners aren’t nearly as bad in this second half as they were in those years.
Let’s account for this. I found every team’s half-season WAR and found the percentile and z-score within each half season. This way, we kind of sidestep the sample size question and think of these figures as relative to the rest of the league and half season. From that view, this is somewhere between the second and fourth worst stretch of baseball the Mariners have played this century.
Year
Half
WAR
Rank
Z-Score
2010
2
6.6
30
-1.81
2008
2
6.5
29
-1.71
2026
2
6.4
29
-1.45
2015
1
10.5
29
-1.43
2005
1
11.1
27
-1.36
2008
1
10.8
28
-1.32
2011
2
8.0
27
-1.25
2012
1
12.1
26
-1.05
2021
1
11.8
24
-0.97
2010
1
12.5
25
-0.90
What makes 2026 weird, of course, is the Mariners were actually pretty good in the first half. Sure, they were disappointing in many ways, but they ultimately ranked seventh in WAR and had a decent run differential. It wouldn’t have been surprising to see them surge in the second half, or at least maintain a frustrating relationship to .500. That would have been a totally normal shape for the season to take.
Instead, we got this:
Again, the Mariners are second worst team by WAR in the second half of 2026, behind only the Rockies. I looked into how rare it is for a team to collapse like this. In terms of raw WAR, the Mariners 16-WAR drop between halves is the ninth largest this century. That figure contains a few teams, like the 2018 Astros, who went from “best ever” to merely elite. If we instead look at change in z-score, the Mariners collapse is the sixth largest this century. And if we look at percentile change — i.e., the drop from seventh to 29th — the collapse is the third largest. We don’t see something like this every year:
Team
Year
1st Half WAR
2nd Half WAR
Raw ∆
Pct ∆
Z ∆
OAK
2008
23.0
6.1
-16.9
-0.80
-2.52
TEX
2000
18.3
2.9
-15.4
-0.55
-2.48
BAL
2005
23.1
8.1
-15.0
-0.79
-2.37
BOS
2012
21.3
5.4
-15.9
-0.66
-2.31
BOS
2006
20.7
8.9
-11.8
-0.66
-2.25
SEA
2026
23.0
6.4
-16.6
-0.76
-2.10
LAD
2010
22.5
8.1
-14.4
-0.65
-2.08
CIN
2014
21.0
6.7
-14.3
-0.72
-1.99
TBR
2009
29.4
18.1
-11.3
-0.31
-1.98
OAK
2014
27.2
12.2
-15.0
-0.59
-1.95
That’s to say, no matter how you cut it, 2026 represents both 1) some of the worst baseball the Mariners have played this century, and 2) one of the largest collapses in true talent we’ve seen from any team this century.
The reason isn’t complicated. The Mariners have been dreadful — truly dreadful — on the mound. They have a total of 0.6 WAR from their pitching staff in the second half, which ranks last by nearly a full win. Their starters have posted 1.7 WAR (29th) and their relievers have posted -1.1 (obviously 30th). August was arguably the worst pitching month in team history, and the Mariners have never been outscored by more runs.
Of course, the reason the Mariners were competitive in the first half is because their rotation was the very best in the majors by WAR. And while the bullpen was always somewhat shaky, they could avoid their worst options by getting seven innings a night from their starters. They were a top five pitching group overall in the first half. It doesn’t matter how you sort it, this is far and away the largest pitching collapse this century. We’ve never seen such excellence followed by such… whatever you want to call it.
Team
Year
1st Half WAR
2nd Half WAR
Raw ∆
Pct ∆
Z ∆
SEA
2026
13.4
0.6
-12.8
-0.89
-3.42
BOS
2024
13.4
1.6
-11.8
-0.89
-3.08
OAK
2015
11.7
1.2
-10.5
-0.76
-2.89
OAK
2008
12.8
2.1
-10.7
-0.69
-2.58
SEA
2011
13.9
3.6
-10.3
-0.76
-2.51
It’s hard to know exactly how much to blame the pitching, because the Mariners on defense are easily the worst fielding group in the majors in the second half. They were in the first half, too, but they’ve somehow gotten even worse. Since the All-Star break, they are in last by Fielding Run Value at catcher, third base, and shortstop. They are next to last at second base. The only position they’ve gotten positive value from is first base.
The Mariners lineup hasn’t even been that bad. They currently rank ninth by batting runs in the second half, with a broadly acceptable 103 wRC+. But for a team that largely punted defense to maximize offense, that’s not quite enough to reach even the median. The Mariners position players rank 18th in the second half by WAR, essentially unchanged from the first half.
I’ll leave you with a final plot:
This shows second half WAR (by z-score) on the x axis and next season WAR on the y axis. The Mariners second half WAR in 2026 is represented by the red line.
We can see a somewhat linear relationship between the points, meaning second half performance is generally indicative of next year performance. We can also see it’s rare for a team to play as bad as the Mariners have in the second half and then go on to be good, much less great, the next year. This is why the depth of the Mariners recent failure is concerning. What we’ve seen is not just bad baseball but a symptom of a bad baseball team. And it’s not easy to go from a bad baseball team to a good baseball team in an offseason.
That said, a bounce back is not without precedence. The only team this century to go from a bottom five team in the second half to a top five team the next year is the Red Sox. They did it twice, once from 2006 to 2007, and once from 2012 to 2013. They won the World Series both years.
