Category: MLB

Tightly contested games across the board, including disappointing defensive efforts from both the Loons and Tower Buzzers, stood out on the first day of September.

Player of the day

It’s not every day you see a pitcher covering eight innings in the minor leagues; it’s not every day you see that anywhere, and Adam Serwinowski accomplished that feat in a close win for Tulsa at home over Wichita, helping this dominant Drillers team to go 31 games over .500 and secure their most wins ever (79).

Shortly after setting a career high in innings pitched as a professional, Serwinowski momentarily put behind what has been a disappointing campaign with an ERA north of 5.00 to toss an outstanding start. Serwinowski allowed just two runs in eight innings, dominating in a game in which the Drillers needed no less than that, narrowly beating out the Wind Surge.

Triple-A Oklahoma City

Neither starting pitcher was on his game, with Christian Romero and David Davalillo both allowing four runs, but the Comets’ bullpen was as dominant as you’d want by covering 5.2 frames and conceding just a single hit in a 7-4 win. Involved in that great effort from the bullpen, Kris Bubic impressed in his first appearance on a rehab assignment, punching out two.

Matt Gorski and Ryan Fitzgerald hit solo shots in the second and ninth, respectively, but what really made the day for the Comets was a five-run fifth with contributions from all over the order—it included a Fitzgerald then game-tying two-run double, while the go-ahead hit came from Hyeseong Kim, also an RBI double.

Double-A Tulsa

Much like Eric Lauer in the majors, Adam Seriwnowski also allowed a pair of solo shots, but the similarities in these two outings end there, as Seriwnowski otherwise dominated the Wind Surge across eight two-run innings. Serwinowski had been more dominant in a pair of seven-inning outings, but by length, this was his best performance. Serwinowski allowed the Drillers to come from behind and win this game while recording only four hits to score their three runs.

Offensively, Logan Wagner was the big factor for Tulsa, first putting them on the scoreboard with a solo shot in the second and then securing the go-ahead RBI single in the sixth.

Responsible for scoring one of Tulsa’s runs, Kole Wagner didn’t record a hit but caused a lot of problems by drawing three walks in the game.

High-A Great Lakes

When you commit as many errors as you score runs, the chances of winning are rather slim, as it was on display in a Loons 4-3 loss against the Captains. Mairo Martinus, who has had such a nice start to his Great Lakes career, encountered some problems on the field, committing two of those three errors, and in the end, the only earned run allowed by the Loons staff came against the losing pitcher of record, Robby Porco.

Ninth-hole hitter Victor Rodriguez, who came into this game with one home run this season in over 250 at-bats, was responsible for two of the Loons’ three runs, hitting a two-run bomb in the seventh. For a brief moment, that gave the Loons the lead before handing it right back by allowing runs in the seventh and ninth.

Class-A Ontario

Much like the Loons, the Tower Buzzers also didn’t play clean defense and surrendered a late lead en route to a loss, beaten 8 to 6 by the Quakes, who scored all of their runs from the sixth inning onwards. This bullpen collapse, which included three separate blown saves from Camden Wimbish, Accibias Morales, and Devin Bell, meant that Jack O’Connor left his start empty-handed despite tossing five scoreless innings with seven strikeouts.

Relying almost exclusively on the long ball to make something happen, the Tower Buzzers scored four of their six runs via homers, including a Caleb Johnson two-run bomb and solo shots from Joendry Vargas and Jose Gonzalez. Meanwhile, Bryan Gonzalez Garcia and Easton Shelton struggled heavily, with 3 strikeouts each.

Transactions

Outfielders Kyeler Thompson and Jose Gonzalez were assigned to Ontario. The Comets were assigned Alek Thomas as Alex Freeland received a call-up to the bigs, and lastly, Kris Bubic began a rehab assignment with the Comets.

Tuesday’s scores

• Round Rock 4, Oklahoma City 7
• Tulsa 3, Wichita 2
• Lake County 4, Great Lakes 3
• Ontario 6, Rancho Cucamonga 8

Wednesday’s schedule

• 10:05 a.m. PT: Tulsa (Wyatt Crowell) vs. Wichita (Chris Vallimont)
• 3:35 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Will Gagnon) at Lake County (Joey Oakie)
• 4:45 p.m. PT: Oklahoma City (Cole Irvin) at Round Rock (Winston Santos)
• 6:35 p.m. PT: Ontario (TBD) vs. Rancho Cucamonga (Trey Gregory-Alford)

After winning seven straight games, to include sweeping the Dodgers, the Atlanta Braves have lost two games in a row to subpar opponents. With the Phillies on their tale, the Braves need to win games that they are supposed to win to keep the lead, and the game today against the Nationals is one of those games.

Grant Holmes will be taking the mound to face the Nationals for the third time this season.  In his first outing in late May he pitched 5.0 innings and surrendered two earned runs on six hits and recorded a season high ten strikeouts on two walks. His second outing, which took place at the end of July, went 4.2 innings and gave up three earned runs on five hits to include three HRs. He only had four strikeouts in that game.

Holmes should be watching out for Jorbit Vivas and Dylan Crews who both have a HR against him in six at-bats. Daylen Lile has two HRs in four at-bats, so it will be interesting if this because a nemesis scenario as time goes on.

For the season, Holmes has been a reliable arm for the Braves having amassed 128.2 innings of 3.71 ERA ball. If he could get to 6.0 innings today, the bullpen would sure appreciate it.

Brad Lord will be pitching for the Nationals and the players on the Braves roster have mixed against him.  Ozzie Albies has a .929 OPS in nine at-bats, Ronald Acuña has a HR and 1.125 OPS in eight at-bats, Drake Baldwin has a .777 OPS in nine at-bats, and Michael Harris has a HR and 1.000 OPS in nine at-bats. However, Matt Olson leads the team with eleven at-bats against him but only has a .182 OPS. Yes, OPS, not batting average, and no other player with at least four at-bats against Lord has an OPS above .600.

Lord has arguably been one of the bright spots for the Nationals pitching this season with an ERA of 3.75 in 69.2 innings. His underlying metrics show that he has been a bit on the fortunate side with a low strikeout rate of 21.5 percent, a high walk rate of 9.4 percent, and an expected ERA (xERA) of 4.12.

Lord has already faced the Braves twice this season. His first outing was in April where he pitched 2.2 innings in relief. He gave up a run on two hits. His second outing was in late May where he came in on long relief where he pitched 3.0 innings and struck out three and gave up zero runs.

Of his thirty-three appearances, only four have been starts, and they have all been in the opener capacity, so the odds heavily favor that happening again today.

Even with injuries it was very apparent last night that the Nationals are still a formidable force on offense. The Braves need to get to Lord early and force him to stay as an opener style performance to get to the weak Nationals bullpen.

This is clearly not a “must win” game, but the Braves really need to win this one with the Phillies being one of the hottest teams in MLB right now playing against a struggling Diamondbacks squad.

First pitch is at 1:05 EDT

Game Info

Game Time: Wednesday, September 2nd, 1:05 pm EDT

Location: Nationals Park, Washington, DC

Watch: BravesVision

Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

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The Boston Red Sox are home favorites as they wrap up a three-game clash with the Seattle Mariners this afternoon at Fenway Park.

My Mariners vs. Red Sox predictions expect the home team to capitalize on Bryce Miller's mound struggles to earn a win on Wednesday, Sept. 2, with first pitch slated for 4:10 p.m. ET.

Who will win Mariners vs Red Sox today: Red Sox moneyline (56.5%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The Seattle Mariners rank 29th in xwOBA with just 3.6 runs per game over the past 30 days, and starter Bryce Miller’s underlying numbers skyrocket away from pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park.

His home 2.52 xERA and 3.67 xFIP jump to 3.80 and 4.04 marks, respectively, on the highway, where Miller has also surrendered a .346 wOBA and .239 ISO.

So, with the Boston Red Sox ranking second in wOBA, fourth in ISO and seventh in xwOBA while averaging 5.4 runs per game over the past 30 days, I’m happy to back them to 57.4% this afternoon.

COVERS INTEL: The Red Sox rank second in bullpen xERA and third in xFIP while pitching the third-most innings in the second half.

Mariners vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (51.2%)

While there’s no sugarcoating Boston starter Patrick Sandoval’s 5.32 xERA and 4.59 xFIP across his past seven starts, he’s still allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of those outings.

Additionally, I’m anticipating statistical correction to his .356 BABIP, the ninth-highest mark among all starters with at least 30 innings pitched during the stretch.

With the Mariners also ranking 30th in wOBA against lefties and 21st in wOBA on the highway, this Under 8.5 is in play to 53.5%.

Mariners vs Red Sox home run prediction: Wilyer Abreu (16.9%)

Red Sox outfielder Wilyer Abreu has a single homer across his past 16 games, and he's a ripe candidate to kick the skid tonight. Abreu has posted a high-end .213 ISO against right-handed pitchers, and Miller has a .236 ISO vs. left-handed hitters on the road.

Mariners vs Red Sox weather

The weather forecast calls for comfortable temperatures hovering around 72 degrees with a crosswind in the 11-mph range. The elements will have little impact at Fenway Park this afternoon.

Mariners vs Red Sox odds

• Moneyline: Mariners 46.5% | Red Sox 57.4%
• Run line: Mariners +1.5 (63%) | Red Sox -1.5 (40.8%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (52.4%) | Under 8.5 (52.4%)

Mariners vs Red Sox trend

The Boston Red Sox have won 34 of their last 50 games (+12.85 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Red Sox.

How to watch Mariners vs Red Sox and game info

Mariners vs Red Sox latest injuries

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The Orioles have not overwhelmed teams with their offensive firepower, but the team keeps finding ways to win games. Pete Alonso has generated some AL MVP chatter, and Coby Mayo looks like Barry Bonds against lefties, but the majority of the lineup has provided inconsistent production this season.

So how does a team filled with streaky hitters maximize its chances to win games? It turns to the hot hand at the right time.

The Orioles entered last night’s game in Colorado leading all of baseball with 34 RBIs by pinch hitters. Craig Albernaz, along with the big brains in the front office, have routinely put the right player into the right position at the right time. Guys like Leody Taveras, Colton Cowser, Dylan Beavers and Tyler O’Neill do not boast above average stat lines, but they have all made the most of their opportunities when grabbing a bat late in games.

The late-inning magic led to Baltimore beat writer Jake Rill proclaiming that a pinch-hitting resurgence was fueling Baltimore’s playoff push. The story featured quotes from Albernaz discussing the mindset of players on the bench. He pointed out the work that players do to stay ready and shared that the team educates hitters on which pitchers they could face in late-game situations.

Rill’s story ran before O’Neill hit the injured list with a rotator cuff strain, but pinch-hitting remains a significant part of Baltimore’s strategy. In fact, Albernaz just picked up two more options to break a game open late.

The Orioles claimed former All Star Luis Robert Jr. to help out down the stretch. Robert Jr. fills a need as a right-handed outfielder with some pop at the dish. Robert Jr. can play all three outfield positions. He’s healthy, and he posted a 128 wRC+ over 75 at bats in August.

Baltimore doesn’t need Robert Jr. to match his 130 OPS+ from 2023, but they committed $5 million because they believe he can make an impact in September. He’s a career .285/.359/.497 hitter against lefties, and he represents a clear offensive improvement over recently acquired rookie Christian Franklin. The Orioles placed Franklin on the 10-day injured list when they activated Robert Jr.

Cowser was the top story in baseball yesterday after his walk-off robbery, but he entered last night’s game slashing .159/.255/.227 against southpaws. The Orioles have turned to Taveras against lefties, but his .203/.274/.244 falls well below Robert Jr. In a way, the move addressed one of Baltimore’s greatest weaknesses on the offensive side of the ball

But Robert Jr. wasn’t the only heavy hitter to join the club yesterday. The Orioles also recalled Heston Kjerstad to serve as a power bat off the bench. The Arkansas product may receive an occasional start in the corner outfield, but he won’t be used as a defensive replacement anytime soon. Baltimore added the former first-round pick to make an impact at the dish. And now, with Pete Alonso in need of extra at bats as the DH, Kjerstad could be limited to pinch-hit opportunities late in games.

With rosters expanding to 28, the Orioles continue to carry three catchers. Carlos Narváez has yet to inspire much confidence at the plate, so look for Baltimore to deploy the bench bats if/when Narváez finds himself in a late-inning situation. Christian Encarnacion Strand remains an intriguing option to deliver a clutch hit, and Basallo could grab a bat on days that Narváez gets the start.

Despite Baltimore’s success, pinch hitting is not the easiest task. It’s difficult for players to remain engaged and not overthink during their only opportunity of the evening. Robert Jr. is a veteran that has played in two big cities, but Kjerstad has less than 300 plate appearances under his belt. The 27-year-old has faced plenty of adversity during his time in professional baseball, and he must feel some extra pressure to perform now that he’s back in the big leagues.

The coaching staff will do its best to keep Kjerstad in the right frame of mind. At a minimum, it pays to have options at this point in the season. Albernaz has made a habit of maximizing his options in the second half, and the Orioles will need to keep riding the hot hand if they hope to make the playoffs.

Good morning everyone!

The Mariners bats came to life yesterday as rookie outfielder Lazaro Montes had a debut to remember in a 9-6 M’s victory over the Red Sox. The two squads are set to square off again today with first pitch at 1:10pm PT.

In Mariners news…

• The Mariners are coming off their worst month by run differential in nearly 50 years. Ryan Blake tried to make sense of it all.
• Zach Mason says it’s time for a change around here — the Mariners must fire Humpy.
• Mariners prospect Carlos Jiménez is having a breakout season for the Everett AquaSox. Miguel Riera has the story.

Around the league…

• The Arte Moreno Era is coming to an end in Anaheim — the longtime Angels owner is selling the franchise to Los Angeles Rams owner Stan Kroenke for a record $4 billion valuation.
• Mike Trout was pretty candid in his remarks about the sale, saying this will hopefully “get that winning culture back.”
• The Padres called up top catching prospect Ethan Salas, who is now the youngest active MLB player at just 20 years old.
• Roayls right-hander Carlos Estévez will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery.
• ESPN spoke anonymously to several players to get their unfiltered thoughts on the salary cap and the looming lockout.
• Red Sox pitcher Sonny Gray admitted that a recent viral video of him performing as Troy Bolton from High School Musical was in fact him.
• Benjamin Hill broke down the 10 best minor league promotions happening in September.
• Rays slugger Junior Caminero is having a great season — but he’s also grounding into double plays at record pace. Daniel R. Epstein at Baseball Prospectus wonders if he has a shot to make history on that front too. ($)
• Did you know the Pittsburgh Pirates haven’t had Fangraphs playoff odds greater than 1% in September since 2016? Luke at Bucco Ball yearns for a team that is worth watching late in the season.
• The strange season for Ketel Marte simply won’t end.

Happy Wednesday everybody.

Yesterday, the Athletics kicked off their September slate by dropping their fifth straight game and second straight against the Texas Rangers. While the Rangers are vying for postseason baseball, the A’s are on a collision course toward 100-plus losses for the third time in manager Mark Kotsay’s tenure. Given the number of injured players and league worst pitching staff, it seems a matter of when not if the team crosses that benchmark.

Since John Fisher assumed full ownership control of the Athletics in 2016, the club has often overachieved, winning games and making three postseason appearances despite his limited investment in the team.

Before the A’s played last night, the announcement regarding the Los Angeles Angels changing ownership sent shockwaves throughout the sport. It is a particularity bitter pill to swallow for A’s fans, as Fisher will have one less competitor for the worst owner in the league award.

There remains a possibility that Fisher will follow in Arte Moreno’s footsteps and sell the team for a massive amount of money a few years after they get settled in Las Vegas. Until then, fans of the Green and Gold must hope that he increases his investments to keep A’s competitive amidst a changing league.

The new general manager and his staff should receive full authority to upend how this organization operates, from upgrading its player development infrastructure, bolstering its major-league pitching staff and ultimately guiding this historic franchise back to the playoffs.

In the meantime, there are 22 A’s games left before what is expected to be a long, lockout-impacted offseason. Injury-prone outfielder Denzel Clarke seeks to make an impression over the next few weeks, while the team’s young pitchers, including Gage Jump, J.T. Ginn and Elvis Alvarado, aim to end their seasons on a positive note.

Which players are you looking forward to watching over the season’s final stretch? What keeps you coming back despite how this season has unfolded? Also, what qualities should the team look for in its search for a new President of Baseball Operations?

A’s Coverage:

• A’s Rally Too Late in 8-5 Loss to Rangers
• Your 2026 Hacktastic A’s
• Losing Streak Hits Four, A’s Lose To Rangers 8-1
• Athletics Considering James Click For GM Vacancy
• Get the best of Athletics Nation on the new SB Nation app
• How defensive whiz Clarke’s return will impact A’s
• How A’s catcher Bruce Maxwell brought taking a knee to MLB and what happened afterwards
• A’s Lose 5-3 in Frustrating Performance
• Orioles Defeat A’s 4-3 in 10 Innings
• A’s Plan to Test Top Pitching Prospect Jamie Arnold at Next Level
• A’s Take Series With Finale Win Over Twins 7-4
• Separating The Wheat From The Chaff Not So Easy
• Amidst The Despair: The Position Player Talent Is There
• What Are The Next Steps For The A’s? ($)
• Where Each A’s Player’s Contract Stands Entering Offseason
• Why Athletics Will Have Scary Offense in 2027
• Red-hot Bolte looking to build on lessons from rookie season
• ’Kid has been grinding’: Butler’s resurgence, leadership fuel A’s
• Underdog Athletics prospect Cole Conn playing like a big dog for Aviators
• Behind the Plate, the A’s Face an Offseason Reckoning
• Why The New GM Needs To “Clean House”
• A Seemingly Rock Bottomless Glass
• MLB Trade Grades: A’s Have Quiet Trade Deadline
• This key change(up) could unlock big success for A’s prospect
• Fustercluck 2026: The Real Reasons For A Disappointing Season

MLB News and Interest:

• What Los Angeles Angels sale means for franchise, MLB
• Padres call up 20-year-old catcher Ethan Salas, their No. 1 prospect
• Rutschman out of lineup again with elbow issue that could linger for rest of season
• What’s at stake in September? There’s plenty
• One prospect from each of the 30 MLB teams who deserves more national attention
• Baltimore Orioles claim Luis Robert Jr. from New York Mets
• Luis Rengifo Diagnosed With Torn ACL
• Ketel Marte apologizes to Torey Lovullo, hears boos in return
• Historic NINE homers at Wrigley cap off Cubs’ record-setting (62) August
• White Sox add veteran bats Tommy Pham, Jake Cave
• Here is what the playoff picture looks like entering September
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

This will be a great opportunity for these two A’s minor league prospects to test their skills as they move one step closer to making their big-league debuts.

How do you feel about the Angels’ ownership changing hands?

Further proof of why the A’s should have made more of an effort to retain Sean Newcomb in free agency this past offseason. It also shows just how impactful Nick Kurtz is to this team.

Which of these two All-Stars would you prefer the A’s keep long term?

It got a little weird at times, but the Yankees had control for the vast majority of last night’s game in Anaheim, a welcome return to normalcy after an ugly 10-1 blowout loss on Monday. Homers by Spencer Jones and Jazz Chisholm Jr. got them off on the right foot, and while stranded baserunners and a shaky sixth from Gerrit Cole allowed the Angels to stay in the ballgame, the Bombers pulled away late with some key insurance runs. They thus regained the game they lost on Boston yesterday (they’re now four games ahead of the Red Sox), and remained 4.5 back of Tampa Bay.

Here’s what else was going on around the American League on Tuesday night.

Tampa Bay Rays (83-55) 6, New York Mets (62-77) 2

The Mets might have scored a surprising victory at the Trop on Monday, but for those who have been exposed to more than their fair share of the Mets over the years, the Tuesday night showdown against old friend Freddy Peralta went exactly as expected. The one-time Brewers ace was traded from Queens a month ago when that experiment went sour, and given the opportunity, he of course spun six innings of three-hit ball while fanning seven, getting burned on a Francisco Lindor leadoff homer but really nothing else.

Meanwhile, the Rays got to Sean Manaea via the ol’ “death by a thousand paper cuts” approach. They sprayed 11 hits on him in 5.2 innings, getting their first couple runs on RBI knocks from Junior Caminero and Ryan Vilade before breaking it open a bit with three in the sixth. Nick Fortes doubled down the left-field line to plate Chandler Simpson, Fortes scored on a sacrifice fly, and Yandy Díaz swatted a 396-foot homer to make it a 5-1 game.

Despite the deficit, the Mets did have a chance to get back into this game. Garrett Cleavinger walked the bases loaded with one out in the seventh, bringing Mark Vientos to the plate as the tying run. Kevin Cash called upon Tyler Wells, who got Vientos to foul out before walking Lindor to bring home one of the runners. The moment was there for Juan Soto … and he popped up.

Alas. The Mets never got another man on base, the Rays tacked on an insurance run, and that was that.

Other Games

Boston Red Sox (75-64) 6, Seattle Mariners (65-74) 9: Amid an 8-15 tailspin that may have finally put the nail in the coffin for their 2026 season, the Mariners began September on a better note. They’re gonna need more than a few Hail Marys to save themselves, but they at least had the decency to snap their skid against Boston rather than waiting until they left town. The M’s treated September call-up Jedixson Paez like a minor leaguer in his Red Sox debut, blasting him for eight runs on 10 hits in 3.2 innings, with Dominic Canzone and the red-hot Randy Arozarena both going yard. Paez’s fellow rookie Lazaro Montes broke into the bigs in style with an RBI single off Paez in the third for his first career hit; he later took Wyatt Olds deep to check off his first career homer as well.

Bryan Woo tossed six solid innings with one earned run allowed, but because the 2026 Mariners are the 2026 Mariners, not even wins with nine runs scored come easy. Seattle led 9-1 entering the sixth, when Boston plated an unearned run with the help of an error by third baseman Brock Rodden. Eli White hit a two-run double a couple innings later and Yankees legend Jahmai Jones clobbered a two-run shot to make it a 9-6 ballgame in the ninth. So Seattle brought in Andrés Muñoz to slam the door, and he did the job for the final two outs.

Chicago White Sox (73-65) 5, Houston Astros (70-69) 1: The White Sox held serve on their three-game lead over the Guardians in AL Central by punching back after the Astros took the Monday opener. Ronel Blanco was effective in four scoreless innings for Houston, but 88 pitches forced him from the game early. The door was open for the Pale Hose to do damage against Kai-Wei Teng and Tatsuya Imai, and they obliged, with both Colson Montgomery and Randal Grichuk delivering two-run doubles. Sean Burke delivered 5.1 innings of one-hit shutout ball to lead the way for the White Sox on the mound.

AL Wild Card Rock Fight

Texas Rangers (69-70) 8, The Athletics (53-86) 5: Houston’s loss allowed the under-.500 Rangers to trim the Astros’ AL West lead back down to one game. Texas has been fortunate to draw the hapless A’s this week at home, and they’ve done what they’ve needed to do. The 8-5 final score belies the fact that Texas led this 8-1 through six thanks in great part in a 4-for-5, five-RBI night from Brandon Nimmo, and three of the A’s runs were scored off former Nationals righty Trevor Williams, who was only signed that day.

Baltimore Orioles (69-70) 2, Colorado Rockies (52-86) 4: It took the O’s just over four months to finally get back to .500 on Monday night with a miraculous catch by Colton Cowser to clinch it. Now they’re right back under after stumbling at Coors. A Jackson Holliday homer in his dad’s old stomping grounds tied it up at 2-2 in the seventh, but Baby Bomber alum T.J. Rumfield struck the decisive blow on a two-run homer after the stretch. The O’s had been just a half-game behind Cleveland for the Wild Card, but now they’re a game and a half back.

Cleveland Guardians (70-68) 6, Toronto Blue Jays (68-71) 1: The Jays entered a three-game set in Cleveland hoping to cut into the Guardians’ lead for the last Wild Card spot and instead took a step back (to 2.5 games behind). Gavin Williams dominated the opener, fanning 13 and allowing just two hits and an unearned run across seven brilliant innings. Patrick Bailey, Angel Genao, and Angel Martínez each hit two-run homers for the Guardians as they turned a 1-0 deficit in the fifth into a 6-1 final.

Last night we saw two debuts and both went about as well as you could possibly imagine. Yohandy Morales and Jared Simpson were both thrown into the fire, but came out stronger. The two debutants helped lead the Nats to an uplifting win with their families in the crowd. 

Yohandy Morales is the bigger name of the two, but he still had to earn his stripes. After being selected in the second round of the 2023 draft, Morales steadily climbed through the minor leagues. Before this season, he never put up bad numbers, but also never fully broke out.

Like so many Nats prospects, things changed this season. In AAA, Morales finally turned his impressive raw power into consistent home runs. He hit 25 homers at AAA this season. You can make a decent argument that he should have been called up sooner, but he is finally here now. 

Morales found out he was getting called up while he was fishing in the rain with Trey Lipscomb. When Devin Pearson called him, his screen kept freezing. However, the message was eventually received and he called his family.

Morales’ family was in the building last night and went crazy when their boy took AJ Smith-Shawver deep in the third inning. He got a splitter inside and turned his hands inside, driving the ball out to left field. It was a surreal moment for the 24 year old and his family.

Yohandy Morales’ family had to go through a lot to get to this point. His father was a baseball player in Cuba, but eventually defected. He tried to reach the big leagues himself, but could not make it. Instead, his son is the one living out his dream and you could see the emotion when his boy hit that homer.

The slugger’s night was not done after that homer though. He got two more hits including a double that almost went over the wall. Instead it banged half way up the wall and he had to settle for a double. Later in the game, he also got a single, meaning he was only a triple shy of the cycle.

Morales was not the only player to debut last night though. In the 8th round of that same 2023 draft, the Nationals selected Jared Simpson out of Iowa. For most of his career, walks have been a big issue for the lefty. Last season, he walked 57 batters in 52 innings. 

However, he has been in the zone more often this year and that has let him rise through the ranks. Simpson actually spent most of the year in Double-A. After being called up to AAA though, he continued to impress and it earned him a September call-up.

We talked to Simpson before and after the game, and the lefty is quite a funny guy. He said that he knew his stuff played in the MLB when Ronald Acuna fouled off his fastball instead of going yard. Simpson also said that facing Matt Olson was a cool moment because he used him a lot in MLB The Show. 

When Simpson got the call that he was going to the big leagues, he was actually at a Men’s Warehouse in Rochester buying clothes for a buddies wedding. Simpson had to buy some more clothes for his MLB debut too. He did not hide anything from the Men’s Warehouse employees, saying he told them he needed collared shirts because he was going to the big leagues.

Simpson also delivered on the mound. He came into a tight situation, with runners on first and second with nobody out. Simpson started his career with a twin killing, getting Drake Baldwin to ground into a huge double play. He ended the inning by getting Acuna to fly out.

The dream outing continued though. Simpson mowed down the Braves, getting nine outs on just eight hitters. A highlight of his night was painting a slider on the outside corner to Michael Harris to get his first career strikeout. 

Between Erik Tolman and now Simpson, the Nats have a couple new and exciting lefty relievers. Finding effective matchup lefties has been a big problem all season. However, if Tolman and Simpson continue to produce, they could lock down spots for themselves.

Overall, this was a great night for the organization and the two debutants. Neither are the most hyped prospects in the system, but both showed up and produced. That tells you a lot about the development system being put in place. There is true quality depth being built down in the minor leagues.

As we head to 2027 and beyond, hopefully we can see more of these lesser known names make impacts and find big league roles. Pumping out solid big leaguers is a way to find sustainable success. That is exactly what Paul Toboni is looking to do, and so far we are seeing a lot of positive signs. Yohandy Morales and Jared Simpson are just two examples of that.

The San Diego Padres haven’t been doing the best lately. After their ridiculously hot streak, they’ve cooled down significantly, dropping six of their last nine games. The Friars haven’t won a series since they swept the Minnesota Twins in their last homestand. They need a series win against the Cincinnati Reds, and the rubber match is the perfect stage.

Apart from Fernando Tatis Jr.’s two home runs, the Padres weren’t able to muster up much offense in Game 2. Reds starter Nick Lodolo limited the Friars to two runs over six innings before Cincinnati came back with two runs off of San Diego’s bullpen in the eighth inning. It’s the latest in a concerning trend from the Padres’ relievers. Hopefully, the club will be able to turn things around sooner rather than later.

Taking the mound

Brandon Williamson (CIN) v. Casey Mize (SD)

Williamson doesn’t have much experience at the big-league level, having made just 32 starts in parts of three seasons with Cincinnati. Much of that came in 2023, when Williamson made 23 starts for the Reds with a 4.46 ERA. He’s never been particularly effective, but has flashed some decent stuff.

Through six starts this season, Williamson owns a 6.11 ERA (28.0 IP). He’s given up four homers in that time, but has struggled more with command. The lefty has issued 20 walks this season, giving him a 1.64 WHIP. Williamson hasn’t pitched at the major-league level since April 29, so there could be some rust there.

It’s no secret that Mize has struggled as a Padre. Since joining the club, he’s given up an almost unbelievable 21 runs (16 earned). That’s resulted in Mize owning a 6.26 ERA across 23 innings with the Friars. He desperately needs to turn things around, and has proven that he can. Mize was one of the best AL starters, with a 2.70 ERA before being traded to San Diego.

It’s not totally his fault. Mize has been the subject of unfortunate circumstances. He hurt his ankle walking down the dugout steps and wasn’t pitching 100 percent in either start that he made during that time. Apart from his throwing error in his last start, Mize pitched quite well. He surrendered two earned runs across five innings versus the Tampa Bay Rays.

Batter up!

San Diego’s lineup simply couldn’t capitalize on their many scoring opportunities in Tuesday night’s loss. The Friars went 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position, with all but Tatis struggling to cross home plate. They’ll need their offense working tonight in order to back up Mize.

1. Fernando Tatis Jr., RF
2. Samad Taylor, LF
3. Manny Machado, 3B
4. Ty France, 1B
5. Jackson Merrill, CF
6. Luis Campusano, C
7. Dustin Harris, DH
8. Xander Bogaerts, SS
9. Jake Cronenworth, 2B

With newcomer Ethan Salas reported to be making his debut on Friday when the Padres return to Petco Park, it seems likelier that Campusano will handle catching duties in the series finale versus Cincinnati. The latter entered yesterday’s Game 2 as a pinch-hitter but will probably start today’s rubber match behind the dish.

Relief corps

Starter Randy Vásquez pitched quite well despite exiting in the fifth inning. He hasn’t been granted the same long leash he was at the beginning of the season, and was taken out by manager Craig Stammen quite early. The Padres went to Bradgley Rodriguez, Yuki Matsui, Adrian Morejon and David Morgan to finish the game. But it was, surprisingly, Morejon who gave up the game, surrendering two pivotal runs in the eighth inning.

That leaves Jhony Brito, Griffin Canning, Kyle Hart, Mason Miller and Wandy Peralta as options for Stammen to call upon once Mize exits. With the off day on Thursday, the Padres don’t have to worry too much about taxing the ‘pen, but it would be comforting to see a quality start from Mize.

Retail therapy doesn’t work.

We know this, right? Buying something new for yourself — or even just considering buying something new for yourself — can provide a nice little jolt of dopamine. It can brighten up your day and, depending on what it is, help you imagine new and better future versions of yourself. This is true whether it’s something big, like a house, or something small, like a new pair of shoes.

But, ultimately, that jolt of dopamine is only temporary. Material objects — no matter how much we lust over them, no matter what kind of future versions of ourselves they let us imagine — do not actually have the power to fix the underlying and fundamental issues that define the human condition. The existential realities of your life are not altered by a new pair of pants, no matter how comfortably they fit or how how much they make your ass pop.

It’s good to remind ourselves of this every now again. But baseball fans shouldn’t need that reminder. We have the trade deadline.

On the day that Adley Rutschman debuted for the Red Sox, I wrote about the annoying but stubborn fact that, because the trade deadline comes so late in the season and because baseball is a game in which any given player’s impact is mostly felt over the long haul, trade deadline acquisitions are rarely as impactful as we hope they’ll be:

Of the 44 remaining games, Rutschman’s probably only going to start around around 35 of them at most. If he maintains more or less the same level of production over those 35 games as he’s maintained all season, then we’re talking about 3-4 home runs, 6-10 doubles, and 25-30 total hits from Rutschman. That’s not that much!

Well, since that day, the Red Sox have played 22 games. Rutschman has appeared in 15 of them, making only 13 starts. He has just 1 homer, 1 double, and 9 total hits. He is slashing .170/.254/.245. And he’s not going to have much of a chance to bring those numbers up, because we’re going to see even less of him going forward:

I don’t think it’s fair to call the Rutschman trade a failure at this point, or even judge it all. There’s a not very far-fetched scenario wherein he comes back healthy next season and produces at an All-Star level. Maybe he even signs a team-friendly extension. Ten years from now we could look at the Rutschman deal as one of the moves that laid the foundation for a multi-year run of on-field success.

Bu, while it’s still too early to judge the trade overall, it may not be too early to judge the trade deadline — at least with respect to its impact on the 2026 Red Sox.

Viewed through the lens of helping the 2026 team, the Rutschman and Curtis Mead deals have been abject disasters. I’m not suggesting the logic behind the moves was bad — the Mead injury was as freak as it gets — but the results are what they are, and they are ugly.

Eli White has been good as a role player, but he is very much a role player, having had only 33 at-bats. Jake Rogers was fun for a few days. Erik Miller is really the only trade deadline acquisition who has worked out, and he has worked out fantastically. But, even still, middle relievers are only so impactful.

The trade deadline — much like the fall shopping season we find ourselves in right now as summer wanes and a new school year begins — brings with it the promise of renewal. But that promise is rarely kept for long. It’s been one month since the deadline and the 2026 Red Sox are more or less the same team today as they were back then. And guess what? You’re going to be the same person in your new ass-popping jeans, too. That’s not satisfying, but it is an immutable truth about life, one that the Red Sox are learning all over again.

For the first time in nearly three whole months, Will Smith was back in the starting lineup for the start of the Dodgers’ nine-game homestand on Tuesday.

Smith finished the game going 1-5 with a double and two RBI on Tuesday against the St. Louis Cardinals, but his impact could only bring so much to the table in what ended up being a 13-8 defeat. The Dodgers are hoping that bringing Smith back into the mix will help invigorate the lineup for the stretch run here in September, and Sonja Chen of MLB.com noted Smith as an “invaluable” part of the starting lineup.

“The experience, the calmness in the box, the managing of the pitching staff — all that stuff is crucial,” manager Dave Roberts said.

Although there were hopes that Shohei Ohtani would pitch over the weekend in Detroit, those chances ultimately fell through as the Dodgers decided to go with Tyler Glasnow for the road trip finale. The Dodgers are still undecided as to when Ohtani will return to the mound, but they do expect to have him back to his two-way duties at some point this season, per Jack Harris of the California Post.

“Obviously, it’s tricky navigating a build-up progression with someone who is also DH’ing by night,” Friedman told the California Post in an interview on Tuesday.

But, the veteran executive added, “he obviously wants to get back out there, helping the team on the mound as well.”

Tuesday turned out to be the roughest outing for Eric Lauer for any home start as a Dodger, as the left-hander allowed seven runs over just three innings, suffering his first loss as a Dodger at home across six starts. Lauer spoke with Kirsten Watson of SportsNet LA postgame where he discussed how things began to unravel for him, specifically after allowing back-to-back two-out home runs in the second inning.

“I think, overall, my command wasn’t very good— too many misses, too many big misses. I didn’t feel like I really had a good grasp on where the ball was going today, and that obviously hurt. Trying to make in game adjustments, I gotta get better at that, and just making sure I don’t let things compound like that.”

Well…it’s that time of year again! I’ll spare you a long-winded intro with a medium-winded intro instead. The Guardians are coming out of the MLB Draft having lost out on their second round pick, Logan Schmidt, who was a shoo-in for this list’s top 10, but they did a solid job replenishing needed depth around the system.

There are a couple new wrinkles to the list and the rankings that are vital to the process. Firstly, you will see star ratings on every graphic. Working similarly to college football or basketball’s one to five star scale, this will work similarly. How do we get to those star ratings? Great question. Everything else, namely the future value (FV for short) works like the traditional 20-80 baseball scale, from hit tool to power to defense and decisions. Another factor that plays into the star rating a player receives is their 80th percentile FV, or FV80. This is a grade I give a player based on what I believe their skillset can develop into at an 80th percentile level. This is less of “if everything comes together” kind of thinking as it would heavily cater towards heavy tools in flawed profiles, but it works more along the lines of projecting what a player has shown in their development thus far and casting a net to capture what their best likely outcome is.

One last note: if you see red stars, that signifies an extreme profile risk, whether for injuries or extreme tool flaws and/or extreme outcome swings.

We’ll look back briefly at the preseason Top 20 (only on Twitter, sorry) as we expand out to 45, and take a look at players who have graduated as three of my top 10 prospects have since moved onto bigger and much better things at the big league level for the Guardians.

• Chase DeLauter (PRE #1 // 60 FV): DeLauter rakes, who knew! Fully living up to the 60 I threw on him pretty aggressively, DeLauter has been the best hitter for a Guardians offense in desperate need for anything and everything across the power/contact/approach spectrums. He hit a clear wall and then got hurt, but since, he’s been terrific. A clear #1.
• Travis Bazzana (PRE #3 // 55 FV): I’ve been very critical of both Bazzana and the org’s overwhelming desire to play it safe living through his selection as the 1.1 in his class, but it’s critical within the realm of a 60-grade I placed on him. There are some real concerns with his quality of contact, and the bat speed is playing well below what I thought he could get to, but he’s been an above average hitter and positive value player even through his cold spells because he has shown different ways to impact games, and he’s also flashed the power potential when he consistently gets to his pull-side.
• Parker Messick (PRE #7 // 50 FV): I screamed and shouted to anyone that listened that Parker Messick was going to be a good major league pitcher, and here I am, before god and country, admitting that even I underrated Messick. As a rookie, his fastball trails only Jacob Misiorowski’s ultra heater in run value, and he’s even seen an uptick in velo by over a full mph since last season, and his changeup is among the best in the league. An absolute stud who’s going to get a lot of Cy Young votes.

Alright, now let’s get into the NEW and IMPROVED and LONGER list, starting with our brand new number one:

1) 1B RALPHY VELAZQUEZ | 55 FV | 65 FV80 | #23 T100
PRESEASON RANK: 2
21 | L/R | 6’1” / 240 lbs | Huntington Beach HS (Huntington Beach, CA)
ACQUIRED: ‘23 Draft: 1.23
HIGHEST LEVEL: AAA-COLUMBUS

Velazquez is a specimen unlike anything we have seen in this organization in quite some time. I ranked Velazquez second coming into the season despite Bazzana having a proximity edge over him, but that’s just how highly I think of the bat here. Thus far in Triple-A, Velazquez is running a 105.6 EV90, good for 84th percentile. It took Velazquez a minute to figure out Triple-A, and his chase and whiff rates have ballooned over 30% each, but for a 21 year-old who has only shown that he will figure out the level with the more at-bats he gets, I have no doubt that he’ll figure this level out as well.

Velazquez hammers all pitch types, though RHP changeups have been prone to giving him issues. Velazquez’s hot streak last season in Double-A saw him find elite power to all fields. This season, especially lately, he’s been finding optimized pull-side launch while his z-con% still hovers right around 80%. Velazquez has precocious feel for the barrel. His hard hit launch angle sits at 19°, well above the Triple-A average, showing that he’s getting his hardest hit balls lifted and with thump, and this is really where his ceiling comes into play. Ralphy has all-fields home run power, but to best optimize it in Cleveland, he’ll need to find it pull-side, and he is at a high level.

Velazquez has shown some defensive versatility, but in a perfect world, he’s manning first base for the foreseeable future.

2) SS ANGEL GENAO | 55 FV | 60 FV80| #28 T100
PRESEASON RANK: 5
22 | S/R | 5’11” / ~190 lbs | Castillo, Dominican Republic
ACQUIRED: IFA 2021
HIGHEST LEVEL: MLB

A shortstop by trade who has found himself scattered across the infield since his promotion, Genao has proven right away to be more than just a ceiling to hope on but a high floor, immediate helper for a roster in desperate need of his skill set in Cleveland.

A switch hitter, Genao is once again fully healthy and has elevated himself back towards the top of this list, a list he sat at #1 on this time a season ago, after dealing with nagging injuries that depleted his production in 2025, causing him to drop to 5th on the preseason list.

Genao would be a lock for the top of this list if not for a couple of things, only one being in his control. Velazquez has ascended into the premier first base prospect in the sport, now knocking on the door for Cleveland, and Genao, while possessing above average power, has struggled for years now elevating his best exit velocities. Genao’s raw data reads like 50+ power potential. In Triple-A, Genao ran a 104.7 EV90 (76th percentile) and 45.5% hard hit rate (76th pctl), but that equated to a 5.5% barrel rate. This comes down to his pure ability to launch. The Triple-A average hard-hit launch angle (average LA on batted balls hit at 95+ mph) is 12°. Genao’s sits at 6°.

That being said, it’s not overly extreme, and it’s more separated by handedness. Genao lifts the ball better from the right side, running an 11° hard-hit launch angle, but his EV’s and overall hard hit rates aren’t as strong as those from the left side.

Defensively, Genao has already proven to be versatile, naturally gifted with a high baseball IQ and a plus arm. If he can develop into a plus defender, there’s a real outside shot at 5-tool potential here. Long story short, Genao is destined to play in Cleveland for a very long time, and we’re merely in the infancy of it now.

3) OF JUNEIKER CACERES | 55 FV | 60 FV80| #29 T100
PRESEASON RANK: 10
19 | L/L | 5’10” / 168 lbs | Los Taques, Venezuela
ACQUIRED: IFA 2024
HIGHEST LEVEL: A+ LAKE COUNTY
ETA: 2028

Caceres is the best pure hitter in the Guardians’ system at just 19 years old, and if his swing decisions improve as expected, he has 70 hit tool potential, the highest grade I’ve ever given a hit tool within this organization.

There are two key inflection points in 2027 that will make or break Caceres’s potential growth to #1 on this list sometime next season: can he collect himself against breakers (he hits them well and has no issue seeing spin, but he’s far too aggressive and will extend the zone too much) and can he start finding quality exit velocities when hitting fly balls? Caceres is a pure line drive hitter who has seen his own physical development lead to above average underlying metrics for his age (104 EV90 per TJStats), but his power potential is heavily tempered by his inability to find his best EV’s with home run-carrying launch.

So, why does this create an issue? It’s all in projection. Caceres has naturally gifted hands with barrel control that is second to none, the swing is just fairly flat. If anyone in this system could sell out to hunt for more consistent launch, it’s Caceres as his precocious hitting ability likely would not be hurt much, if at all. It’s vital to Caceres, as a 55 FV player, that he does develop 15+ MLB home run power because if his hit tool is the major carrying tool come two seasons from now, he’s more likely to be a 50 FV.

4) RHP BRAYLON DOUGHTY | 50 FV | 60 FV80| #37 T100
PRESEASON RANK: 4
20 | R/R | 6’0” / 203 lbs | Chaparral HS (Temecula, CA)
ACQUIRED: ‘24 Draft: CB-A, Pick 36
HIGHEST LEVEL: AA-AKRON
ETA: 2028

REPERTOIRE
4-Seam: 92-95 T98
Slider: 86-89
Cutter: 88-92
Curveball: 82-85
Changeup: 84-88

I have covered Braylon Doughty extensively both in written form and on any podcast that lets me talk, but this is the most excited I’ve been about a prep arm in this organization since Daniel Espino was rising the ranks. Doughty, while a bit undersized, has all the makings of a mid-rotation staple, but he’s now dealt with arm fatigue in August in each of his first two seasons. Getting stronger and building the capacity for innings will continue to be something he needs to work on and also monitor, but the pure stuff here is terrific.

Doughty is mechanically further along than just about anyone for his age and has done nothing but excel at every level he’s been at. Doughty began the season in Lake County, and right around May, he turned up a level, riding a strong May and June into a Double-A promotion. Doughty’s biggest strength is plus command across his entire six pitch arsenal, a repertoire that’s only deepened since he found more separation between his slider and cutter.

Doughty, outside of his first start (new team, new ball, etc.) has been terrific in Akron despite the aforementioned arm tightness, and even since he’s returned, he’s picked up right where he left off. The low-80’s curveball has double plus potential as its tremendous drop and 3,000+ RPM spin capability combine with tremendous command and big horizontal movement, creating a lot of swing and miss against either handedness.

It’s flat out one of the best curves in the minor leagues. Doughty’s ceiling right now feels a bit gray, but the floor is a big league starter, 4th or 5th in a rotation. The ceiling, if he can reach the 94-95 mph range on his heater consistently, feels like he can comfortably figure into a mid-rotation slot. The fastball shape is strong enough to be an above average pitch as he’s still reaching back for 96-97 early in starts, and though he settles back into 92-94 regularly, there’s a higher likelihood that he develops this into an offering that can be more 93-96.

The cutter and slider have slight separations and their usages based on handedness largely create their effectiveness. I see the slider developing into a beast of its own given Doughty’s spin propensity. The more separation he finds between the offerings, the more I think he settles in with a devastating slider.

Doughty doesn’t use his changeup a ton. The feel for it is easily his weakest and he exclusively uses it against LHH. He opts for a cutter/four-seam mix primarily against lefties, and he’s seen that drive up his swing and miss against them, but a changeup will be a pivotal development as he nears Cleveland.

5) RHP LIAM PETERSON | 50 FV | 60 FV80
PRESEASON RANK: N/A
21 | R/R | 6’5” / 225 lbs | University of Florida
ACQUIRED: ‘26 Draft: 1.19
HIGHEST LEVEL: N/A
ETA: 2028

REPERTOIRE
4-Seam: 94-96, T99
Slider: 85-89
Curveball: 77-83
Changeup: 85-88

Peterson was Cleveland’s first round pick in this Summer’s draft, and the Guardians are chasing the upside big time here. Peterson has big stuff. He toys with 100 mph, settling down into the mid-90’s on his fastball, and his size and 6.6-foot release height create a steep angle for the heater. There’s a lot of Gavin Williams to Peterson’s mechanics and breaking shape potential, and that alone is enough to buy in.

The fastball has all the desired traits from spin capacity to velocity (20+ iVB, 2500+ RPM), but Peterson’s inability to locate his entire arsenal plagued him all season as a junior at Florida.

The calling card here is the slider. Peterson’s mid-to-upper-80’s slider was a wipeout offering throughout college, generating big time miss rates north of 50% in his draft season.

When he can command it, it’s been unhittable, but he often found himself behind in counts, making him go away from the slider and lean way too much on the fastball, ultimately handcuffing his best two pitches. There’s also a low-90’s cutter that tries to escape from his slider at times, so just know that’s in there.

Peterson flashes a fringe average, upper-80’s changeup that feels like it has real potential to be a future above average offering for him. He’s still able to get high spin on it, and it generates big arm-side run while staying pretty vertical, letting it tunnel with the fastball well.

Florida does not develop pitching all that well (see: firing their pitching coach). That’s why valuing Peterson’s stuff, spin, and mechanical potential is vitally prioritized right now. Cleveland’s pitching dev team gets a lot out of most all of its high-end pitching prospects, and they’re primed to go crazy getting their hands on Peterson.

6) OF AARON WALTON | 45 FV | 55 FV80
PRESEASON RANK: N/A
22 | 6’4” / 218 lbs | R/R
ACQUIRED: ‘25 Draft: CB-B, P66| Arizona
HIGHEST LEVEL: AA-AKRON
ETA: 2027
Walton has emerged as the top player thus far in what’s been a strong offensive ‘25 draft class, showcasing improved mechanics in the box as well as above average, pure effort defense in the outfield.

Walton has a unique leg kick that gets him going in the box. It’s about as big as you’ll see and it’s slightly altered from his swing at Arizona and a bit longer, but he does a good job keeping himself on time. My concern is, as he continues to see better pitching, if the moving parts there lead to struggles staying on time and in rhythm, but the newer leg kick has helped him get his lower half engaged in his swing, leading to a big power surge this season. Walton has seen his underlying metrics get a big boost, posting EV90’s north of 105 mph at both Lake County and thus far in Akron.

There’s all-fields power here, but the home run power is going to come pull-side almost exclusively. Some of his better contact thus far in Akron has also come at lower launch points, so seeing him elevate with more consistency will be vital as he continues to climb the rungs here. Walton has real 55-grade future value because his bat has potential to be a power-led above average stick while his defense has real plus potential. Walton shows average speed, gets strong reads, has an above average arm, and above all else, is fearless in centerfield. He can and will stick in CF, and that is vital to this high of a ranking as he creeps ever closer to T100 consideration.

7) SS DEAN CURLEY | 45 FV | 55 FV80
PRESEASON RANK: 13
22 | 6’4” / 230 lbs | R/R
ACQUIRED: ‘25 Draft: 2.64 | Tennessee
HIGHEST LEVEL: AA-AKRON
ETA: 2028

Curley has remained the same profile at the plate, and thus far, he’s finding a lot of success with it.

An overly passive hitter (1st percentile swing rate and zone-swing rate), Curley’s approach is simply something you don’t see in MLB. The average z-swing% in MLB is 64.7%. Curley’s 47.9% mark would be the lowest in MLB among players with 150+ PA. Where this comes into play tends to be against breakers and offspeed. Does Curley’s passivity lend to his sub-20% chase rate, or does he see offspeed well? As in many cases, the truth rests somewhere in the middle, and the high K-rate is something worth noting as a player running ~80% z-contact% shouldn’t be striking out 30% of the time. That being said, Curley’s noted improvements at the plate have very little to do with how much or little he swings, and it’s why, despite his low defensive grade, I have him top-10.

Curley’s swing was very long coming into the season. A lot of his best contact was oppo because of a noticeable hitch in his handset. The positive for Curley is that his hand speed is quality with good bat speed, and he’s cleaned it up a bit, finding much better contact while finding better results against velocity. Curley has upped his air-pull rates

Curley has played a lot of shortstop, but he’s going to have to be a 3B long term. He just struggles mightily in all facets laterally, and his hands are sub-par. Getting him to a corner where he’s only covering a large portion laterally to his left is the clearest projection here.

8) IF WELBYN FRANCISCA | 45 FV | 55 FV80
PRESEASON RANK: 18
20 | 5’8” / 148 lbs* | S/R
ACQUIRED: ‘23 IFA | Dominican Republic
HIGHEST LEVEL: A+ LAKE COUNTY
ETA: 2028
Francisca has had a full resurgence back to the status of prospect he was coming out of 2023. Between swing changes and injury, 2024 derailed his path briefly, but 2026 has been full go for Francisca as soon as he returned to the field.

Francisca is up 10 spots from the preseason, and he’s even up five spots from where he was this time last season. He has seen physical maturation (that 148 lbs is certainly wrong) turn into a full understanding of his approach, and it’s turned into a major power surge as Francisca has blasted 16 home runs in Lake County thus far.

There are some swing decision nitpicks with Francisca as he’s still a fairly free swinger, extending the zone quite a bit, but it’s necessary to split this up by handedness, with some help from TJStats.

Francisca has been obliterating right-handed pitchers, especially depositing fastballs with ease. His chase rate is significantly better than his overall mark, and he’s barely whiffing north of 20%. This is where the bread gets baked for Francisca, and the left side will continue to be why I remain high on his outlook despite his RHH woes because outside of Velazquez and Caceres, Welbyn’s bat from the left side is the bat I’m most excited about.

Defensively, Francisca feels like a better fit for 2B than shortstop. He has a strong arm, but it’s been a bit erratic, and his movements look much smoother overall at second. There’s even an outside chance be winds up in the outfield as his plus speed and aforementioned arm make for a possible transition out there.

REPERTOIRE
4-Seam: 93-96 T98 | Slider: 83-86
Cutter: 87-92 | Curveball: 75-78
Changeup: 82-84
HIGHEST LEVEL: AAA-COLUMBUS
ETA: 2027
Campbell’s story is well known, and in his first season pitching in the Guardians’ organization, he’s been everything the dreamt of when drafting him back in 2022. Campbell is a big presence on the mound at 6-foot-5, and, similar to Peterson, works very vertically, getting on top of hitters with his fastball. Campbell’s heater sits ~94, reaching back for 97 and a rare 98 early in outings. It’s a big ride-n-run heater, generating north of 17 inches of vertical break and just shy of a foot of arm-side run. It’s an average pitch that can play up to plus at times. Campbell mixes in a quality, plus changeup off of it, generating nearly 17 inches of arm-side tail while cutting close to 10 mph off his fastball. He will tunnel it very well off the heater against lefties, and any solid contact against it is few and far between.

Where Campbell has thrived is in his ability to adjust. He dominated Lake County in a way we’ve not seen from a pitcher in years, but when he got to Akron, he was struggling to get the same consistent swing-and-miss and chase outside the zone. So, he adjusted. More cutter, less early count sweeper, and he found himself working ahead in the count, and over his final four starts in Akron, he was striking out 30% of batters while generating whiff rates north of 35%. He is still struggling to generate chases, but he pounds the zone with big stuff with a slider whose shape he’s still working on finding.

Campbell will need added to the 40-man this offseason, but Cleveland will have no issue doing that. From ulnar decompression surgery to Tommy John to wrist surgery, Campbell’s comeback story is nothing shy of a miracle. An oblique injury delayed his debut in Columbus by over a month, but he will finish out his season with the Clippers, capping off a tremendous first year of progress. Campbell will factor into the back-end of the rotation competition in ‘27 if all goes well, and at the very least, there’s a quality reliever in here if his arm just can’t handle to year to year work given the injury history.

10) LHP FRANKLIN GOMEZ | 45 FV | 55 FV80
PRESEASON RANK: N/R
21 | 6’0” / 220 lbs | L/L
ACQUIRED: Trade w/ NYM, Jan. 2026
HIGHEST LEVEL: AA-AKRON
ETA: 2028

ARSENAL: Fastball/Sinker: 91-94 T96 | Slider: 81-84 | Changeup: 84-87 | Cutter: 85-88
Rounding out the top-10 is Franklin Gomez, a pitcher who I strongly believe will be a capable back-of-rotation arm at the MLB level. Gomez dealt with an elbow injury scare in 2026, but thankfully, it wasn’t anything more than that, and he returned from the IL, going from Lake County to Akron. Similar to Doughty, whether it be new ball, etc, Gomez’s first outing was rough. He rebounded nicely, however, and looked like the same old Franklin Gomez.

Gomez possesses some of the best command in the system across his entire arsenal. He works from a high three-quarters slot, and his fastball has some cut-ride traits, generating above average ride. He also mixes in a sinker that he almost exclusively uses against lefties, and then runs a cutter that he’ll use to either handedness.

The real gems here are Gomez’s secondaries. His sweeper gets a lot of ugly swings and can be used against either handedness, but it’s especially effective against lefties for whiffs, and a lot of them. The changeup is a nasty change-of-pace offering that serves as an equalizing whiff and weak contact pitch. Gomez tunnels well, but it’s the area I want to see him continue to flesh out the most in Akron to end the season.

Gomez thrives on sequencing and command to generate weak contact. His changeup and sweeper are both running high quality wOBA against marks, and those two pitches will help carry him through this system and into a back-end starter role.

11) IF LUKE HILL | 45 FV | 50 FV80
PRESEASON RANK: N/R
22 | 5’11” / 193 lbs | R/R
ACQUIRED: ‘25 Draft: 4:132 | Ole Miss
HIGHEST LEVEL: AA-AKRON
ETA: 2027

Hill already feels like the prototypical bat-first utility piece of the future, or at least that was before the oblique injury. He started the season off on a torrid pace in Lake County, and it was the power surge that shocked everyone, hitting more home runs in the first two months than he ever did in a single season at Ole Miss. Hill has shown sustained power ability, and even though it’s average bat speed, his quick hands, quality barrel control, and top flight swing decisions have made for exit velocities well above what he was showing in college. Hill’s EV90s at both High-A and Double-A are well above average, though because of the aforementioned oblique injury, it’s crept down a bit as of late.

Hill swings and misses a bit more than his profile would indicate, but the trade-off has been more XBH and home run power as well as trading some passivity for more aggression in the zone.

Defensively, Hill is a jack of all trades, master of none. He’s fringe average across the board, and below average at 3B, but the ability to be able to stick him at the three non-1B spots across the infield makes his versatility that much more valuable. He’s an average runner with a good IQ on the base paths. All in all, this is exactly the kind of player Cleveland needed in its system, and most importantly, he’s swinging from the right side.

12) OF JAISON CHOURIO | 45 FV | 50 FV80
PRESEASON RANK: 11
21 | 6’0” / 194 lbs | S/R
ACQUIRED: ‘22 IFA | Venezuela
HIGHEST LEVEL: AA-AKRON
ETA: 2028

Chourio has bounced back exactly how he needed to, coming off a 2025 riddled with injuries that affected his swing and everyday game significantly. While I still end up being the low man on Chourio – Baseball America had him in their Top 100 – the reasons largely come down to defense and approach.

At the plate, Chourio remains incredibly passive, but it’s better than it’s been in previous seasons. The groundball rate, while still high, is down overall, something he’s continually worked on. Now, the pull-side propensity has ticked up, but if he can start converting some of his pulled batted balls into line drives and flyballs, his above average raw power could turn into some fringe average to average game power. Chourio is much better from the left side, generating more consistent quality EV’s while lifting the ball, and his swing is tailored better to elevate the ball more.

Where Chourio struggles offensively is from the right side and with his overall passivity in the zone. We will touch on it more later, but he stares at fastballs in the zone quite often, leaving a lot of meat on the bone.

Defensively is where Chourio suffers the most. He’s a poor defender in centerfield who will have to make the move to a corner at some point. Despite plus speed, his reads are rough and routes are even worse. With more work, he can improve, but I don’t envision him ever becoming an average defender, eventually taking him off a premium position entirely.

13) RHP SAVION SIMS | 40 FV | 60 FV80
PRESEASON RANK: N/R
21 | 6’8” / 215 lbs | R/R
ACQUIRED: ‘26 Draft: 7:213 | Edmond, OK
HIGHEST LEVEL: N/A
ETA: 2030

ARSENAL: Fastball: 95-97, T101 | Slider: 85-88 | Changeup: 87-91

Sims was Cleveland’s big prep signing after the debacle that was Logan Schmidt, and the 6-foot-8 right-hander has as much raw clay for the Guardians to mold as you’ll have seen in the system in a very, very long time.

Sims boasts a huge fastball with triple digit ability with a longer arm action. Sims notably raised his arm slot this year, and it’s seen his fastball generate more carry while finding the upper 90’s with more consistency as he continues to fill out his massive frame. The physical projection is as tantalizing as anything else. The velo is already there, the 6’8” frame is as well, but now it’s about building strength up from the 215 pounds and allowing his lower body to work more in tandem with his upper half.

The reliever risk is a vast amount of the projection, as it always is with size, traits, and velocity in this package. That being said, even below average to fringe average command would signal that Sims has a future as a starter, and the Guardians are going to give him a long runway into finding that out because a starter ceiling with this kind of stuff is limitless.

14) OF RYAN CESARINI | 45 FV | 50 FV80
PRESEASON RANK: N/R
21 | 5’10” / 211 lbs | L/R
ACQUIRED: ‘24 Draft: 14.415 | Saint Joe’s
HIGHEST LEVEL: AA-AKRON
ETA: 2027

If you’re looking for your Guardians 2026 breakout prospect of the year, look no further than Ryan Cesarini. While I’ve been higher than most on Cesarini, I still didn’t have him within the preseason Top 20 (he was 26), and this should really show you a couple things; one, thanks to surges like Cesarini and Luke Hill and others we’ll get to later on, this has become a deeper system in the middle of the pack, and I think Cesarini is in a prime spot to emerge as a player who can separate from that pack a bit.

Cesarini had been a bat-to-ball, contact-centric swinger since the day he was drafted. He’s always been making solid contact, but this season, Cesarini approached his…approach…in search for more. Cesarini operated with a quick toe turn as a timing mechanism to quickly get his compact swing in motion to cover all fields. Now, Cesarini is looking to create damage, and he’s orchestrated a minor leg kick, allowing him to get more stable weight on his back leg to drive through his hips more efficiently. You’ll see in the 2025 swing in the gif above that Cesarini is a bit squatty and that his hips fly open, a commonality throughout his ‘25 tape. Now, his hips stay through his swing, and he’s in a much more athletic, stable base, allowing him to create the launch he’s been seeking.

Cesarini’s raw power output has backed up his results, with hard hit rates north of 40% in Akron, as well as an EV90 above 106 mph. Cesarini is an adequate defender with average speed, and he will be a corner outfield utility type who hasn’t shown any kind of weakness in splits. This is a huge rise for Cesarini, and I now firmly believe in him finding a way up to Cleveland some time in 2027 at the rate he’s going.

15) OF JACE LaVIOLETTE | 35 FV | 60 FV80
PRESEASON RANK: 8
24 | 6’6” / 228 lbs | L/L
ACQUIRED: ‘25 Draft: 1:27 | Texas A&M
HIGHEST LEVEL: AA-AKRON
ETA: 2028

…here we go.

Where to even start with LaViolette? Top flight athlete, adequate to above average in the field, cannon of an arm, above average speed, 70-grade raw power. LaViolette has also found his best power to the pull-side. That’s all to say that LaViolette’s struggles are capable of completely derailing him.

LaViolette has a below average hit tool at a level right now that would disqualify him from ever being a big leaguer. The top of the zone completely owns him as his swing is tailored and grooved to win against low pitches, and his plate coverage is not strong enough for him to win along the outer third with any consistency, and it leads to some suboptimal quality of contact and a ton of strikeouts. Even getting that up to a 35, Gallo-esque hit tool could do him wonders considering the strengths of all his other tools being able to create value.

That’s what makes ranking LaViolette so difficult. He was poised to fall in rankings as he continues to work on changes to his stance and swing. Through changes come adjustments on the fly in the box, and we’re seeing that in real time in Akron as his overall numbers continue to fall. 2027 will be a huge year for LaViolette’s future within the org. If he progresses, there’s something here, but the flip side is just as likely, if not more so.

16) C/cOF COOPER INGLE | 45 FV | 45 FV80
PRESEASON RANK: 12
24 | 5’8” / 190 lbs | L/R
ACQUIRED: ‘23 Draft: 4:125 | Clemson
HIGHEST LEVEL: MLB
ETA: 2026

I have been lower on Cooper Ingle than most, and it comes down to two things: I don’t think he can stick behind the plate and an untenable approach at the plate. Ingle is an undersized catcher whose arm isn’t strong enough and defensive prowess lacks behind the dish. This has pushed him into a corner outfield spot both in Triple-A at times and fully at the ML level during his cup of coffee up in Cleveland. It goes without saying that Ingle struggled mightily in the outfield, and all it’s done is raise major questions about his future.

At the plate, Ingle possesses a fairly extreme profile. Prior to his promotion, Ingle displayed extreme passivity against all pitch types, but especially fastballs. MLB’s average swing rate against fastball types (fastballs/sinkers) in the zone is 65.5%. Ingle’s was 53.1%. Prior to his promotion, Ingle’s approach saw him running tremendous whiff rates, chase rates, and overall quality contact, but it simply wasn’t tenable with a minuscule 36% swing rate. The answer to why it wasn’t tenable is simple: MLB pitchers have no reason to fear Ingle and would attack in the zone at a much higher rate with better stuff. Ingle often found himself behind in counts, and he uncharacteristically struck out in 12 of his 21 at-bats in Cleveland.

Things have shifted a bit for Ingle since being demoted. That 53.1% zone-swing rate against fastball types has elevated up to 67.6%, now above the major league average. With more aggression against heaters has come more swing and miss across the board, namely against sliders. I think this is a net positive for Ingle though. He had to come off the extreme approach and be willing to actually put his hit tool to use. Ingle has above average bat to ball skills with quality barrel control that he harnesses in a quick, compact swing that he generates quality lift with. While there are some pretty extreme splits concerns here, if Ingle wants to profile as a major league bat, this was the change he had to make, and it’s a huge deal that he’s doing it now.

17) RHP JACOB ZIBIN | 40 FV | 50 FV80
PRESEASON RANK: N/R
20 | 6’4” / 218 lbs | L/R
ACQUIRED: ‘22 Draft: 10:301 | Canada
HIGHEST LEVEL: A+ LAKE COUNTY
ETA: 2028

ARSENAL: Fastball: 93-96 T98 | Slider: 80-83 | Changeup: 81-84 | Cutter: 88-91
Zibin has found it in 2026. Command, mechanical consistency, sequencing, all of it. It’s night and day for Zibin from last season, his first pro season after missing three years due to various arm injuries (Tommy John in ‘23, ulnar nerve transposition surgery in ‘24). Like Justin Campbell in that same draft, the lengthy absence showed signs of rust, but the talent is breaking through in a big way in 2026.

Zibin took a few starts to adjust, but since the start of May, he’s largely been very good, and since his promotion to Lake County, he’s taken off. Zibin finished August with a 0.64 ERA and .132 batting average against. The command has taken leap from below average to fringe average potential, and his arsenal is beginning to flesh out into that of a starter’s.

Zibin’s fastball lives in the mid-90s consistently. It was the pitch he needed to find consistent command with, and he has. Shape-wise, the fastball can be a bit dead zone-y, generating as much run as ride, but he tunnels well off of it, allowing him to generate more swing-and-miss and weak contact than expected.

Zibin’s bread and butter is his changeup. It has plus potential with really sharp late bite. It generated a whiff rate north of 40% in A-ball, and it’s been just as effective thus far in Lake County. Zibin mixes this in against either handedness which is a bit unique in today’s repertoire splits, showing his comfortability and success with the offer. A new cutter has been mixed in, helping Zibin live in the zone a bit more, and it’s mixed well off the fastball as well as Zibin’s sweeper which has served effectively against right-handed bats.

Zibin has upped his strikeout rate by over 12% from last season while dropping his walk rate 2%. This is a real deal starting pitcher prospect now, and though some reliever risk still hangs around as the command is still a work in progress and the preexisting arm issues lurk, Zibin has made himself a name to watch in the org.

18) RHP KHAL STEPHEN | 45 FV | 50 FV80
PRESEASON RANK: 6
24 | 5’8” / 190 lbs | L/R
ACQUIRED: Trade w/ TOR, July 2025
HIGHEST LEVEL: AA-AKRON
ETA: 2029

Khal Stephen probably had the most unfortunate 2026 of any Guardians prospect. Stephen’s command had previously been above average while flashing plus on certain pitch types. That all took a huge step back, namely with the fastball which he left center-cut way too often with diminished shape. All in all, Stephen’s time within the Guardians org has been spent struggling, and now he will go under the knife for Tommy John surgery, derailing his 2026 and all of his 2027.

19) RHP DANIEL ESPINO | 45 FV | 55 FV80
PRESEASON RANK: 16
25 | 6’0” / 225 lbs | R/R
ACQUIRED: ‘19 Draft: 1:24 | Panama
HIGHEST LEVEL: MLB
ETA: 2026

ARSENAL: Fastball: 97-100 T101 | Slider: 90-93 | Changeup:
Espino pitching in the major leagues in 2026 is nothing shy of a miraculous success story. Espino flashing 100 multiple times? We’ve never been more back.

Espino drops to 18 now for one reason, and that reason is that I solely see him as a reliever now. The care and overall caution this organization has handled Espino with this season not only makes a ton of sense, but it showed me that they don’t really see him as a starter long-term. While the dream of having Cleveland’s version of deGrom (Espino) and Cole (Gavin) seems dead, Espino’s future with this team is not. Daniel Espino has dominant backend reliever written all over him.

Espino’s fastball is still double plus, somehow, as its velocity, shape and Espino’s ability to optimize it at the top of the zone have culminated in a 52.8% whiff rate against big league bats. The big issue was his inability to find the zone, though a lot of that could come down to how seldom he was used. Espino has not pitched in consecutive days, and they rarely go to him every other either in Columbus or Cleveland. That kind of usage is enough to disrupt some outing to outing adjustments, and while understandable, it has been a bit frustrating.

Espino’s gyro slider is a 92 mph bullet train that stays verty and can serve similarly to a cutter earlier in counts, and his curveball is a pitch he’s been going to more since going back to Columbus, and he’s seeing huge swing-and-miss success with it now.

While Daniel Espino will likely never toe the rubber as a starter in a playoff game for the Guardians, he will absolutely do so as a reliever in big spots for years to come.

20) RHP JOEY OAKIE | 40 FV | 55 FV80
PRESEASON RANK: 9
20 | 6’3” / 200 lbs | R/R
ACQUIRED: ‘26 Draft: 3:84 | Ankeny, IA
HIGHEST LEVEL: N/A
ETA: 2029

ARSENAL: Fastball: 95-97 T100 | Slider: 85-88 | Changeup: 87-91 | Cutter: 89-91
Oakie is among my biggest droppers, and it all comes down to a regression in command and overall mechanical deficiencies that scream reliever future. Oakie was a huge riser for me to end last season after showcasing better command over his final month and turning in the two most dominant starts by a Guardians pitching prospect in 2025. Enter ‘26, however, and the same ugly woes are back, and we’re right back down to 20-grade current command.

Oakie’s fastball command is bad right now. The buggy whip action he gets creates a ton of deception, and the velocity it generates does a lot of work, but he has no idea where it’s going right now. Oakie’s slider is a dominant offering in the mid to upper 80’s that can completely overwhelm hitters when he’s ahead in the count, but he rarely is.

The best move here is to just stash Oakie away for a rainy day next season and see what his mechanics look like. The long whippy action has to end, or we’re looking at another Chase Mobley.

21) OF KAHLIL WATSON | 40 FV | 50 FV80
PRESEASON RANK: 17
20 | 5’9” / 178 lbs | L/R
ACQUIRED: Trade w/ MIA, Aug. ‘23
HIGHEST LEVEL: MLB
ETA: 2026

Watson drops a bit here, solely due to the additions of Liam Peterson, Luke Hill, and Savion Sims as well as Jacob Zibin’s breakout. My outlook on Watson has not changed at all since before the season, but Watson has shown one area of improvement that may be what keeps him on a major league roster as a depth piece one day and buy him time to figure out his offensive approach, and that’s his above average, bordering on plus defense across the outfield. Watson is an average defender in center while showcasing some plus defense in the corners in Cleveland, including an above average arm and speed.

What holds Watson back is what’s always been Watson’s kryptonite: he whiffs too much at all pitch types. Watson has run a whiff rate north of 30% in Triple-A. That number is above 30% for fastball, offspeed, and breaking types. It’s so hard to succeed when whiffing that much, and while he hasn’t shown a penchant for chasing much in Triple-A, that discipline went by the wayside during his run in Cleveland as he was running an O-Swing% of 35.6%. Watson simply may need more time at the major league level to work out his kinks, but unfortunately, the line in front of him is pretty long.

22) OF TRE BROUSSARD | 40 FV | 55 FV80
PRESEASON RANK: N/R
20 | 6’0” / 190 lbs | L/L
ACQUIRED: ‘26 Draft: 3:95 | Houston
HIGHEST LEVEL: N/A
ETA: 2029

Broussard was Cleveland’s third round pick out of the University of Houston, and he’s a very interesting profile worth keeping an eye on.

Broussard’s handset at the start of his swing is a bit high, above his head, and this creates an unconventional path to the ball. I think the Guardians will try and clean this up a bit, finding something a bit more natural to anchor a more consistent swing path.

Broussard was a pure bat-to-ball contact hitter in his last season at Houston, showcasing sub-20% whiff rates and high-80% range zone-contact ability. Broussard feasted on fastballs in the zone, and when the rare pulled flyball happened, he tended to hit them a long way. There’s more power in Broussard’s profile that his stats don’t tell you. Broussard posted a max-EV of 110.4 mph with strong average EV’s and what would equal out to be right around MLB average bat speed. Some swing and approach changes will be in the works here, and Broussard’s natural bat-to-ball ability should be able to survive a search for a more complete profile.

Defensively, Broussard is incredibly gifted in centerfield, and he will be able to stick there long-term. He has plus ability in center, and his double plus speed not only makes him a threat on the base paths, but it makes his already strong reads in the outfield even more advantageous.

Broussard will not make his affiliated debut until 2027.

23) 1B/OF NOLAN SCHUBART | 35 FV | 55 FV80
PRESEASON RANK: N/R
20 | 6’4” / 227 lbs | L/R
ACQUIRED: ‘25 Draft: 3:101 | OK State
HIGHEST LEVEL: AA-AKRON
ETA: 2027

Schubart might just be my favorite player here.

Monstrous, sky-scraping power with surprisingly good swing decisions, Schubart differs from his fellow 2025 extreme hit tool partner in that one simple regard. Swing decisions. Schubart ranks low for a reason. He’s landlocked at the most non-premium defensive position on the field and/or a DH, and his bat profile is beyond extreme. There isn’t a single everyday big leaguer striking out 35+% of the time, and Schubart’s 64% zone-contact rate is 6% lower than the lowest of MLB. This profile rhymes with the extreme power hitting profiles of today’s game, but the overall success rate of someone of this level of extreme is low.

But enough about why it won’t work and more about why it could. Schubart just about whiffs equally at all pitch types, but he’s selective at what he does swing at. Schubart’s swing is so unique. He physically towers over the ball as he swings, getting bend on his upper body that you wouldn’t see anyone else generate. This does create two distinct features to Schubart’s swing: a ton of whiff above the thighs and prodigious power against anything below them. Schubart’s success across the minor leagues this season is driven by his ability to dominate the lower half of the zone with passable plate coverage without being overly aggressive and extending beyond it all the time. When Schubart does chase, it’s almost always down and away as he’s big game hunting, but he’s still poised enough to lay off the vast majority of the time.

I said it the other day, but Schubart is impossible to rank as I’ve never once put stock into a profile like his, and he may be among the most extreme 3TO profile that you’ll find, but I’ll be damned if he isn’t fun.

24) C REINER HERRERA | 45 FV | 50 FV80
PRESEASON RANK: N/R
20 | 5’11” / 170 lbs | L/R
ACQUIRED: IFA ‘23 | Venezuela
HIGHEST LEVEL: A-HILL CITY
ETA: 2029

Herrera is a name you need to become acquainted with ASAP. Herrera was a bit older for the Complex League at 20 this season, but he dominated it to the tune of a .324/.487/.721 slash line with 11 home runs in 35 games. He received a promotion out of the CPX to Hill City where his keen eye and power production has continued.

Herrera is a Guardians special of a swinger. He controls the inner half, aims to lift and pull and finds his power that way. Herrera doesn’t expand the zone much, and he’s found success against all pitch types thus far.

What makes Herrera more advanced than others around his age in this system is his approach. Herrera is a two-handed finisher, finding his best power that way, but he’ll adjust his swing in two-strike counts, opting for a flatter bat path and one handed follow through, simplifying his approach to battle to get on base. Beyond that, Herrera has also flashed well above average power outputs for his age, and the Guardians may have something brewing here.

Defensively, Herrera is still a bit stiff behind the plate but has an above average arm. He’s done well controlling the run game thus far at levels where pitchers can’t be bothered holding runners, now he gets a chance to further develop his pitch to pitch mechanics back there. It can be harder to project out from A-ball, but Herrera lands as the highest ranked catcher who I think sticks behind the plate.

25) C KODY HUFF | 40 FV | 45 FV80
PRESEASON RANK: N/R
25 | 5’9” / 198 lbs | R/R
ACQUIRED: Trade w/ COL, Nov. ‘23
HIGHEST LEVEL: AAA-COLUMBUS
ETA: 2027

Huff has been a bit of an enigma this season, emerging onto the radar almost out of nowhere. Arriving in Cleveland’s system via the Cal Quantrill trade, Huff has scratched out a very good second season in Columbus, providing solid play across the diamond, from catcher to third base to first base. That being said, you’ll see by the grades that I think Huff has been playing above his skis in Triple-A, and I’ll explain why.

Since the All-Star Break, Huff has had a hard time finding consistency, namely against right-handed pitching. Even with some home runs against RHP at the end of July, Huff has struggled against them in this span, but he’s crushed left-handed pitching exclusively.

I had a hunch based on Huff’s whiff rates by pitch type and pitcher handedness in the first half that this would be how this enveloped, and thus far, that’s been who he is in the second half. This is why I have a hard time buying into Huff any more than I had already been coming into the season. The defensive versatility likely sees him some time in Cleveland, but outside of him coming up and crushing the ball right away when he does get that chance, I don’t see him as a long-term big league option.

26) RHP WILL HYNES | 40 FV | 50 FV80
PRESEASON RANK: N/R
20 | 6’2” / 180 lbs | R/R
ACQUIRED: ‘25 Draft: CB-B:70 | Canada
HIGHEST LEVEL: A-HILL CITY
ETA: 2030

ARSENAL: Fastball: 91-94 T96 | Slider: 80-84 | Changeup: 82-86
Hynes was the player taken with the comp pick received in the Josh Naylor trade. Hynes, just 19 years old, has a ton of physical projection left on his frame, firing from a three-quarters slot with capable velocity already.

Hynes has three pitches right now as he works on developing consistency in his mechanics and release point. Hynes’s fastball is more run over ride, generating big arm-side tail, working almost more as a 2-seam profile. The slider is his easiest pitch to project as it generates good spin rates with a ton of sweeping movement. The key with the slider will be keeping it from getting so loopy and staying up. When he can get the slider to bite, it’s been a huge swing-and-miss pitch, but right now, there’s a lot of shape inconsistency. His changeup has been used almost exclusively to lefties. It pairs really well with the fastball when he can locate.

Hynes is a ball of clay already being molded. He is younger than Savion Sims, for reference, and has all the chance in the world to develop into something of note here.

27) C DEITEN LACHANCE | 40 FV | 50 FV80
PRESEASON RANK: N/R
20 | 6’5” / 231 lbs | R/R
ACQUIRED: ‘26 Draft: 6:184 | Oklahoma
HIGHEST LEVEL: A-HILL CITY
ETA: 2029

Lachance exploded onto the scene after a monster late season tear and eventual CWS run, winning the College World Series with Oklahoma. Lachance’s profile is very simple. He will swing and miss, he is hunting to hit bombs, and behind the plate, he’s more comfortable than he once was, showcasing more consistent footwork blocking balls.

Lachance’s calling card that can keep him behind the dish is his quick pop time and cannon of an arm. As we move into a world where more teams begin to call pitches from the dugout, Lachance’s profile behind the plate will likely emerge as the preferred one: big bat, control the run game, keep balls in front of you.

The hit tool will be the concern. Can he keep from whiffing too much as he climbs the ranks through the system? Time will tell, but the swing is geared for big power, and his personality is geared to win over this fanbase as well.

28) OF ROBERT ARIAS | 40 FV | 50 FV80
PRESEASON RANK: N/R
19 | 6’1” / 168 lbs | L/L
ACQUIRED: IFA ‘24 | Dominican Republic
HIGHEST LEVEL: A-HILL CITY
ETA: 2030

Arias was poised for a huge leap up this list (I had him at 13 when I began putting this together in early June), but a fractured ankle on a really unfortunate play ended his season. It’s unknown right now if Arias will miss any time early next season, but my only concern is just how much an injury like a fractured ankle could affect a player whose speed and athleticism are the driving force behind their profile. Wishing Robert all the best, and if he comes back looking the same way he did before the injury, expect a massive leap up this list.

29) 1B ANTHONY MARTINEZ | 40 FV | 50 FV80
PRESEASON RANK: N/R
22 | 6’1” / 250 lbs | L/R
ACQUIRED: ‘25 Draft: 8:252 | UC Irvine
HIGHEST LEVEL: A+ LAKE COUNTY
ETA: 2028

Martinez has had a stellar season thus far, taking a much more patient approach to A-ball after struggling in the short stint he spent there in his draft year. His swing decisions have been quality, his approach is very good, and he’s been aggressive in the zone while doing a lot of damage with quality plate coverage.

Martinez has showcased above average power thus far as well, exhibiting a 105.2 EV90 in Lake County thus far with hard hit rates over 40% at both levels this season, and this makes him a bit of a rare breed 1B bat across minor league baseball. Big power tends to have some give and take with some swing and miss, but not for Martinez. Martinez has supplemented his power with little swing and miss (18.3% whiff%) little zone expansion (22.4% O-Swing%), and elite zone-contact and swing selection rates (91% Z-con% with a 49.% Z-O Swing%). Should Martinez get up to Akron in 2027 and continue this, he’s going to skyrocket up these rankings.

30) SS DAURI FERNANDEZ | 40 FV | 50 FV80
PRESEASON RANK: 15
19 | 5’9” / 155 lbs | S/R
ACQUIRED: IFA ‘24 | Dominican Republic
HIGHEST LEVEL: A+ LAKE COUNTY
ETA: 2030

One of the bigger fallers on this list, Dauri Fernandez is still a player I like quite a bit, but his approach at the plate has to clean up. Fernandez is a slash-n-dash profile whose contact ability and double plus speed make for a terror when he gets on base. Fernandez has really strong bat-to-ball skills, but a K-rate that’s jumped 8% (albeit from the CPX to affiliated ball) lends to some digging into. Fernandez is running a pretty extreme chase rate, and it’s affecting his ability to get on base at the rate he should. Fernandez has a good eye, but leaning on a solid bat to do all the work just isn’t going to work as the pitching gets better.

When Fernandez is on base, he’s a total pest. Fernandez has swiped 54 bags at the time of this release this season, though he’s been caught 16 times. Where his speed and suddenness helps him most is defensively. Fernandez doesn’t have the smoothest of hands, but he can get to balls many others can’t due to good reads across the infield and his quickness. He also possesses an average arm, and I think he can stick at shortstop.

Fernandez simply has to mature at the plate. The larger concern here is his frame may not have a lot of physical development in it of itself, so developing a better approach is paramount to his future success.

31-45

Good morning, baseball fans!

Last week, our fearless leader Brady and I had an entertaining conversation that stemmed from the San Francisco Giants partnering with Kalshi. I thought I’d share a bit of that because it leads into our prompt for today.

It started with Brady ironically using the Giants’ slogan: “It doesn’t get more Giant.” To which I replied, “How much do you think their PR team regrets that one?” Brady mentioned that he always thought “Game Up” was the silliest slogan. I added that “Giants baseball: there’s nothing like it” was pretty bad too, given how often it’s been memed by the fanbase.

This prompted me to suggest honest slogans for the current trajectory of the team’s future:

“Giants Baseball: And that’s a threat.” and “Giants Baseball: And what are you gonna do about it?” were my suggestions.

Brady’s suggestion was: “Giants Baseball: Deal with it.”

So now we’re bringing the conversation to you guys for your suggestions. What do you think the Giants’ slogan should be for 2027 and beyond?

What time do the Giants play today?

The Giants continue this three-game road series against the Pittsburgh Pirates this afternoon at 3:40 p.m. PT.

When Hall of Famer Todd Helton retired after 17 seasons with the Colorado Rockies, the carousel of replacements at first base has made for a grueling search to fill his position. For 13 years, the Rockies have tried again and again to find a first baseman who could provide stability and production at first base, but again and again they failed to do so. Helton set the bar high for the position, and no player has quite been able to reach it.

Until now, perhaps.

TJ Rumfield has had a phenomenal year for the Rockies as a rookie. We’ve sung his praises plenty here at Purple Row, as he seems to have solved the riddle of first base for the club and has a compelling case to be in the Rookie of the Year conversations more than he already is.

As the season has progressed, it’s become apparent that Helton and Rumfield share similarities in their playstyles. How similar are their rookie seasons? Let’s dive into some of the numbers and see what we can find.

Surface value

A glimpse at the standard counting stats shows that Helton has the upper hand in nearly every category (more on the other stat in a moment).

In 152 games during his true rookie season in 1998 — after appearing in 35 games in 1997 — Helton proved to be a productive middle-of-the-order bat that could hit for power and drive in runs. He slashed .315/.380/.530 and benefited greatly from the fearsome lineup surrounding him, featuring four of the remaining Blake Street Bombers, and the pre-Humidor environment of Coors Field.

Rumfield has proven to be a steady bat in the lineup despite the statistically weaker lineup than that of the 1998 team. He has some power hiding in his bat, but he focuses on making contact and getting on base, as he is slashing .290/.383/.437, which has helped him keep pace with Helton.

According to Baseball-Reference, their value is nearly identical. Helton accumulated 3.2 rWAR in 1998 while Rumfield currently sits at 3.3 rWAR. FanGraphs has quite a bit more disparity between the values, with Helton accumulating 2.9 fWAR and Rumfield 2.1 fWAR. Helton is the overall better player, which is absolutely reasonable and expected after all, but Rumfield is keeping pace in his own way,

While they aren’t exactly replicas of each other, it’s the similarities that are making Rumfield such an effective player this season and could help him raise his level of play in the seasons to come.

On-base machines

Let’s direct our attention to the ability that made Helton so incredible in his career and has been the highlight of Rumfield’s rookie season: getting on base.

In franchise history, the list of rookies with at least 500 plate appearances and a .380 OBP in a season is as follows:

• 2026: TJ Rumfield (.383)
• 1998: Todd Helton (.380)

That’s it; that’s the list.

As we know, on-base percentage is the rate that a player gets on base by either a hit, a walk, or a hit by a pitch. By both accounts, Rumfield and Helton excel in the two main parts of the stat’s distinctions.

Entering the final month of the season, Rumfield has 136 hits, which leads the Rockies. In 1998, Helton tallied 167 hits, which was good for fourth on the team. Now, Helton was a true hitting machine as he tallied 49 multi-hit games during his rookie year, including several four-hit games. Meanwhile, Rumfield has 34 multi-hit games, including one four-hit game. With 23 September games left to play, Rumfield could have a chance to match Helton’s rookie total, which is second in franchise history behind Troy Tulowitzki’s 2007 season total (177). Rumfield has averaged about 26 hits per month this season, but to match Helton, he needs 31, which would be a month-high this season.

As for the walks, that is where Rumfield takes the crown. Helton was always known for impeccable vision at the plate, and that translated into a solid walk rate throughout his career. In 1998, he managed 53 walks for an 8.9% walk rate, the second-lowest rate of his career. Rumfield currently possesses an 11.6% walk rate while surpassing Helton’s walk total with 63. In fact, Rumfield is likely to overtake Dexter Fowler (67) for most walks in a season by a rookie in franchise history before this week is through.

Plate discipline

The plate discipline is what is so strikingly similar between these two players. Both have been excellent at getting hits and drawing walks, but the process leading up to them is what is so interesting.

It became a trademark for Helton to deliver grinding at-bats because it was so difficult to strike him out. During his rookie season, he struck out just 54 times with a 61.3% strike rate. He was a little more eager to swing the bat back then but still averaged 3.78 pitches per plate appearance, which was above league average. Helton would average about 4.1 pitches per plate appearance the rest of his career. He made plenty of contact (88.5%) and attacked pitchers with a 29.2% swing rate on the first pitch, which isn’t a lot but enough to do damage. Such a contact-oriented approach is what made Helton successful and complemented his ability to hit for power. Let’s not forget he had a .530 slugging percentage that season with 25 home runs and 37 doubles.

Rumfield has also proven to be a stickler at the plate with a quality contact bat. Sure, he has 75 strikeouts, but that is the 24th fewest in baseball this season. Much like Helton, he has a 61.5% strike rate and has averaged 3.77 pitchers per plate appearance. That may be lower than league average this season, but that’s because Rumfield is aggressive with his 42.5% swing rate on first pitches and has a solid 80.3% contact rate. There isn’t a specific stat to indicate how many foul balls either player hit beyond the ones that counted for strikes, but it’s safe to say that Rumfield does swing earlier and more often than Helton, but tends to put more bad pitches in play. Still, Rumfield has managed a .437 SLG with 13 home runs and 26 doubles.

Splits

As mentioned before, Helton thrived at Coors Field in 1998. He mashed to the tune of a .354/.417/.585 slash in 77 games with 13 home runs and 61 RBI. That type of production made the split so drastic on the road, despite Helton putting up quality numbers. In 75 road games, he batted .273/.340/.470 with 12 home runs and 36 RBI. He took advantage of his home ballpark, but Coors Field did not create Helton. He struck out more on the road, but that’s simply because opposing pitchers were terrified of throwing to him at Coors Field, so he walked more.

Rumfield, on the other hand, has been consistent regardless of whether he’s at home or away. At Coors Field, he is slashing .290/.375/.459 with eight home runs; while on the road he is batting .290/.391/.416 with five home runs. Nearly every stat for Rumfield is similar, save for RBI, because he’s just had fewer opportunities on the road. Much like Helton, Coors Field is not defining Rumfield, but rather highlighting that he is a great hitter regardless of where he plays.

The same can be said of the platoon splits. Both players are at their best against right-handed pitching with Helton punishing righties for 20 home runs and a .318 AVG. Rumfield is batting over .300 against righties as well with 11 home runs but his numbers do take a dip against lefties despite being solid enough. He only has two home run, but his .266 AVG and .367 OBP are quality enough numbers to keep him in the lineup every day instead of a platoon. Helton saw fewer opportunities against southpaws in his rookie season, but still bashed them for a .304/.394/.482 slash with five home runs in 133 plate appearances.

Either way, the ability to adapt and find consistency at the plate regardless of the varying factors is a valuable trait that so many Rockies have failed to develop over the team’s history.

Defense

Lastly, let’s touch on defense.

Over the course of his career, Helton won three Gold Gloves and was always regarded as one of the best defensive first basemen of his generation, if not baseball history. As a 24-year-old rookie, his score of 9 Total Zone in runs above average indicates that his fielding saved the Rockies roughly nine runs more than a statistically average major league first baseman would have saved over that same playing time of 146 games.

This gave him a 9.76 Range Factor per 9 innings, which was comfortably higher than the league average of 9.46 for first basemen that year. He committed only 7 errors on 1,317 total chances for a .995 fielding percentage.

Rumfield matches up with an 8 TZ, tying him for the MLB lead among first basemen. Rumfield actually accumulated his eight runs in fewer innings than Helton (982.1 vs 1,208.0). Because Rumfield plays in the modern era, his defense is also validated by modern tracking data, showing an outstanding 11 Defensive Runs Saved and 6 Outs Above Average.

The eye test helps us understand that Helton was a quality receiver at first base, but new metrics help us actually put into context how Rumfield is at manning his position and the growth he still needs to make. In his case, the eye test still holds water, and he’s become a sound first baseman for the Rockies this season and deserves to be a contender for a Gold Glove.

Conclusion

The numbers tell a clear story: Rumfield’s disciplined eye, split-neutral bat, and surprisingly stellar glove match up with Helton’s 1998 campaign in ways few thought possible for a rookie.

While Helton remains a franchise icon whose rookie ceiling was elevated by a legendary surrounding cast, Rumfield is carving out a dynamic identity of his own. He is getting on base at a historic clip, anchoring an infield defense in desperate need of stability, and giving Rockies fans their first genuine taste of long-term answer at first base since Number 17 walked away.

Whether Rumfield takes home the Rookie of the Year hardware or a Gold Glove this fall, one thing is certain: the 13-year search is officially over. The Rockies have finally found their guy at first base, and the best may be yet to come.

On the farm

Triple-A: Tacoma Rainiers 6, Albuquerque Isotopes 3

The Albuquerque Isotopes out-hit Tacoma 11-10, but scored just three runs as they lost 6-3. Every Isotope had a hit, with Bryant Betancourt going 3-for-4. Roc Riggio also contributed his third home run, a solo shot in the sixth inning. The Isotopes went 3-for-5 with runners in scoring position, while the Rainers with 3-for-10 with RISP. It was a bullpen day for Albuquerque as Ryan Miller made the start with two innings of work, giving up a run. Blake Adams followed and took the loss after giving up four runs in the fourth inning. Parker Mushinski then gave up a run in 1.1 innings, followed by a trio of relievers who gave up just one hit.

Double-A:Hartford Yard Goats 5, Reading Fightin’ Phils 3

The Hartford Yard Goats collected 11 hits, but it didn’t pay off until they scored three runs in the seventh inning to take the lead for a 5-3 victory. Andy Perez, Jacob Humphrey, and Cole Messina each had two hits to lead the offense. Perez and Messina both doubled in runs in the seventh and Jared Thomas delivered an RBI single to cap the scoring. On the mound, Sam Weatherly fired two scoreless innings to start the game and was followed by four innings from Cade Denton, who allowed three runs. Victor Juarez and Austin Smith closed out the game with three scoreless innings.

High-A:Everett AquaSox 7, Spokane Indians 1

It was a tough night offensively for the Spokane Indians as they scored just one run on six hits in a 7-1 loss. Spokane’s lone run came in the second inning on an RBI double from Clayton Gray to score Robert Calaz. On the mound, Aiden May made the start, allowing four runs on seven hits over 3.2 innings of work. The bullpen fared better, allowing three runs in three hits over 4.1 innings between four arms.

Low-A:San Jose Giants 8, Fresno Grizzlies 6

Tied 4-4 through the first seven innings, the Fresno Grizzlies and San Jose Giants combined for six runs, with the Giants coming out on top 8-6. Fresno took a brief lead in the bottom of the eighth, but San Jose scored three in the top of the ninth. Ashly Andujar had two hits for Fresno, while Juan Martinez also had two hits and drove in four runs. Sandy Ozuna made the start, allowing three runs through four innings of work. Grif Hughes then delivered four strong innings, allowing just two runs on one hit. Yanzel Correa had a rough night, giving up the three runs on two hits in the ninth.

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