Category: MLB

If you’re a golfer, odds are you’d do just about anything if you had the chance to tee it up with Tiger Woods—especially in the mid-2000s during the peak of Tiger Woods’ career. That was the situation former MLB player Jeff Francoeur found himself in before a spring training game while on the Atlanta Braves.

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Francoeur, a huge golfer, was just 22 years old and about to play his first full season with the Atlanta Braves. So asking his manager if he could play hooky to go play golf would’ve been a bold move. Luckily, he had an even bigger golfer on his team—John Smoltz, who was legendary for his golf escapades en route to a Hall of Fame Career, was buddies with Tiger Woods and heard about the offer Francoeur had to play with Tiger.

Smoltz put in a good word with legendary Atlanta Braves manager Bobby Cox, and well, we have to just let Francoeur tell the story because he does a great job. Have a listen to Francoeur’s chat on a recent episode of Tim Kirkjian’s podcast with his son, Jeff.

How hilarious is that? Imagine your manager having your back that hard? Then after the game, reporters probably asked Cox about Francoeur’s sudden injury in the first inning, and Cox double-downed on it and called his infielder “day to day” with a “high ankle sprain.”

The extra cherry on the top of the story? This was 2006, when Francoeur played in all 162 games, making him only the fourth Braves player in franchise history to do so. The media must’ve been impressed by Francoeur’s iron-man-like streak, especially how he recovered so quickly from that spring training injury.

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We still have a few more follow-up questions as golf sickos ... who else was in the group with Francoeur and Woods? How did Tiger play that day? We'll have to get Francoeur on our podcast, The Loop, soon so we can dive deeper into this hilarious story.

Make sure to follow The Loop wherever you get your podcasts (below)—we'll have Smoltz back on our podcast soon to talk some golf and baseball.

Heading into the offseason, Nats fans knew that one of the biggest needs on the team was behind the plate. Paul Toboni knew too, with the Jose A Ferrer for Harry Ford trade being his first major move. However, Ford did not make the team and is struggling in AAA. Meanwhile, neither Keibert Ruiz nor Drew Millas are hitting their weight in the big leagues.

The only positive development we have seen behind the plate is the fact that Keibert Ruiz has become competent defensively. That is actually a big win for the organization, and something I thought was impossible. With the help of Bobby Wilson, Ruiz now has a +2 fielding run value. 

The big problem for Ruiz this year has been the bat. Outside of a monster game against the Twins, the bat has shown no signs of life. He is hitting .205 with a .224 on base percentage. The crazy part is that Ruiz is pretty easily the best option behind the plate right now.

Ruiz has been in a 50/50 timeshare with Drew Millas this year. While Ruiz has been far from great, he has been better than Millas and deserves more playing time. It just feels like Millas makes at least one massive mistake in every game he plays. Yesterday it was his awful challenge. Millas challenged a pitch 3 inches off the zone, wasting the Nats last challenge. Later in that at bat, there was a pitch in the zone that was called a ball, but Millas could not challenge.

Millas has been a complete liability on both sides of the ball this season. In his brief call ups in the past, Millas showed promise on both sides, but has been exposed as a regular big leaguer. His plate discipline and blocking have completely cratered this season. As we saw yesterday, his baseball IQ is also shaky.

This would be a perfect time for the Nats to call up Harry Ford if he were performing. However, Ford has had a disastrous start to the season. After having a good season in AAA last year, the 23 year old catcher looks to have regressed a lot. He is hitting just .192 with a .572 OPS, and that number has risen a lot lately.

His strikeout rate is up nearly 10% and he is not hitting the ball as hard. It has been a real disaster for a guy who was supposed to come in and be the catcher of the present and future. The only thing that has remained a constant is his ability to draw walks and not chase. He needs his hit and power tools to get closer to big league average though.

If you want to be optimistic about Ford, he has been better in May. He has gotten on base in his last six games, and hit his first home run of the season the other day. Ford has a .778 OPS in the month of May, but that number has mainly been driven by walks.

It has been a brutal start, but with the way Millas is playing, Ford should only be a couple more good series away from a call up. Eventually we need to see what Ford has to offer. The Nats traded a good reliever for him, so we want to see a return on investment.

However, with the way Ford has started the season, it would be irresponsible to call him the nailed on catcher of the future. Scouts already had some questions about him before the season, and those concerns have only grown now. Besides his plate discipline, Ford does not have a standout trait. Hopefully his numbers last year were not just a product of the hitter friendly PCL. 

If the Nats wanted to spend some money on a catcher, this offseason could be a good time to do it. I was really impressed with what I saw from Ryan Jeffers of the Twins when they were in town. Jeffers has been a solid starting catcher for a number of years, but is having a career year this season. He is also just 28 years old. Carson Kelly and Tyler Stephenson are also going to be on the market.

While the Nats are already paying Keibert Ruiz, we all know he is not the catcher of the future. With his improved defense, he could stick around the roster as a backup, but his bat has not been there for three seasons now. 

Another catcher on the Nats books with big league experience is Riley Adams. He had been the backup the past few seasons, but the new regime picked Drew Millas over him. I think Adams is better, but he has not played since April 26th, so he must be dealing with an injury.

When the Nats picked up Harry Ford, I hoped that would be the answer to their catching woes. The early returns on that have not been positive. It is also clear that neither Keibert Ruiz or Drew Millas are the guy going forward. Beyond that, there is not a whole lot to love. Caleb Lomavita is tracking like a backup catcher, and Sir Jamison Jones has had moments, but remains a massive project.

Paul Toboni and the Nats are going to have to keep taking dart throws at catchers until they find an answer. Hopefully we can find one soon because I miss having a good catcher on this roster.

About seven or eight years ago, there was an established adage/joke among baseball fans, and it went something like this: the MLB season doesn’t officially start until Mike Trout leads the league in Wins Above Replacement. At the time, Trout was the undisputed best player in the league, and eventually other players’ hot starts would fade—leaving Trout standing alone at the top of the leaderboard.

It’s 2026 now, so maybe it’s time to give it a good ol’ update. Let’s say, oh, something along the lines of: the MLB season doesn’t officially start untilBobby Witt Jr. leads the league in Wins Above Replacement. In any case, the season has officially started, because if you go look at the Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference version of WAR, you’ll find that Witt has indeed accrued more WAR than any other American League player.

Over on Bluesky, Kevin O’Brien of Royals Keep posted Witt’s season batting percentiles and wondered if this could be the year that Witt wins the MVP. Yes, it’s just May, but again, Witt is already leading the league in WAR. Is it his to lose? Is it finally his time?

But something Kevin said in the post also stuck with me: “[Witt] doesn’t have the home runs (yet),” Kevin wrote. And while it’s very clear that Witt is an excellent and extremely valuable baseball player, I think that idea deserves a little more exploration as it pertains to Witt’s MVP chances.

There have been arguments about MVP forever, with some of them semantic and some of them philosophical. It’s the “most valuable player” award, but are we talking overall value or value to the team? To what extent do we reward individual accomplishment or positional difficulty? Do past MVPs factor into it? What about pitchers? Are there certain kinds of player who are rewarded more often?

These are all interesting arguments, but the reality is that the Baseball Writers’ Association of America—the MVP voters—essentially consider the MVP to be a “best player” award, and they generally only award a pitcher if that player is clearly the best player. But there are some other things at play, too, and I have a chart to illustrate them: the position player winners of the AL and NL MVP award dating back a dozen years, with 2020 and Shohei Ohtani’s awards thrown out for obvious reasons.

First, the best way to get an MVP award is by being the best player, but the thing about that is that there are other great players also trying to be the best player. Kris Bryant’s 2016 is a prime example here: a 7.5 fWAR season is, in the context of other MVPs, just ok. But no one else in the NL was as good, and so that 7.5 fWAR cleared. Witt, on the other hand, has had to content with Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh the last two years, both of whom put together historically great campaigns. Just no fighting that.

Second, MVP award winners clear a gigantic offensive bar. The average position player MVP winner since 2014 has had a batting average of .314 and has swatted 42 home runs en route to a wRC+ of 176. That’s the average hitter. In Witt’s best season (so far) in 2024, he was double-digit home runs away and seven points of wRC+ away from both figures.

Third, there is simply a bias towards offense in MVP award voting. Most votes go how the WAR total goes, with nearly all winners on this list ranking as the top or second-best WAR in both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference versions. There were only three players who won

MVP and ranked below second place in either fWAR or bWAR: Mike Trout in 2019, Bryce Harper in 2021, and Paul Goldschmidt in 2022. In all three situations, the voters prioritized bat over glove, overlooking WAR to do so. In 2019, it was Alex Bregman and Marcus Semien who lost out. In 2021, it was Trea Turner and Fernando Tatis Jr. who lost out. And in 2022, it was Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado who lost out.

Witt’s game particularly vulnerable to the biases of MVP voters. Witt is a very good hitter who also happens to be the best defensive player in baseball and also one of the deadliest basestealers in the league. But Witt is not going to hit 50 home runs. He’s not going to walk at a 15% clip. He’s probably never going to hit a 169 wRC+ again. There’s a reason that none of the platinum glove winners have ever won an MVP; Arenado came the closest, but again, even though he accrued more WAR than Paul Goldschmidt, voters thought Goldschmidt’s offense was more important than Arenado’s defense.

So, is it Witt’s year to win MVP? I doubt it. That’s not because I don’t think Witt is good; on the contrary, I think Witt is clearly the best player in baseball because how he can impact the game every second he’s on the field. I’m just jaded about the process and about what voters value. I hope it is Witt’s year to win MVP, because he certainly deserves it for how good he’s been over the last two plus seasons.

Baseball's greatest rivalry is back on display for four games.

The San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers will face each other in a four-game series beginning Monday, May 11 at Dodger Stadium.

The Dodgers are looking to defend home field in LA, just as the Giants did weeks ago in the Bay. San Francisco won two during a three-game series with Los Angeles on April 21-23 at Oracle Park.

On the field, the two go into the series with opposite records. While the Dodgers are 24-16, the Giants are 16-24. While Los Angeles is tied for first in the NL West, San Francisco sits in fourth place.

It's the Giants, though, who have the all-time series lead, although slim at 1,290-1,288-17 during regular-season meetings. It's Los Angeles with the edge in the postseason, beating San Francisco, 3-2. The last laugh goes to the Giants, who have one more championship than the Dodgers, 10 'chips to nine.

However, the Dodgers are favored to win in 2026, and tie them at 10. Los Angeles has won back-to-back World Series in 2024 and 2025. The Dodgers' run of three World Series wins in the last six seasons is how the Giants climbed the ranks during their run of three World Series wins between 2010 and 2014.

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The Seattle Mariners have struggled on the road this season, winning just seven of 18 games.

While they’re favored to get a win tonight, my Mariners vs. Astros predictions expect the home team to keep it close.

Let’s break down my daily MLB picks for May 11.

Who will win Mariners vs Astros today: Astros +1.5 (-135)

The Houston Astros have been very effective against right-handed pitching. They rank third in wOBA and OPS, trailing only the Yankees and Braves in those categories — the two highest scoring teams in the majors.

Their problem is not generating runs, but preventing them. That shouldn’t be an issue today with Peter Lambert on the mound.

He has allowed just six runs through 22 1/3 innings of work, and just held the powerhouse Dodgers scoreless over seven innings.

While there are signs he’s due for a little bit of regression, the Seattle Mariners (21st in runs per game, 27th in average) are unlikely to force the issue.

COVERS INTEL: Peter Lambert owns a 22.2% hard-hit rate, the lowest among today’s projected starters 

Mariners vs Astros Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-115)

George Kirby owns a rock-solid 1.10 WHIP, 57.6% ground-ball rate, and Lambert’s the only probable pitcher who has allowed hard contact less frequently this season.

Kirby’s ability to limit barrels and keep the ball down makes him incredibly difficult to produce offense against.

He has conceded three runs or fewer in seven of eight starts this season, and has given up two or less in five straight.

Lambert is sitting down a career-high 9.27 batters per nine innings by way of strikeout. That should serve him well against a Mariners squad that owns the second-highest K rate against righties.

Mariners vs Astros odds

• Moneyline: Mariners -140 | Astros +120
• Run line: Mariners -1.5 (+115) | Astros +1.5 (-135)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Mariners vs Astros trend

The Seattle Mariners have hit the game total Under in 12 of their last 19 away games (+5.50 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Astros.

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I’d prefer to not talk about the entire weekend as it pertains to baseball. The Yankees got utterly spanked in Milwaukee, suffering their second sweep of the season. For that reason alone there was very little to cheer about the past few days.

But to make it worse, the godforsaken Tampa Bay Rays continued their infuriating start. Oh. Look at me. I have a +20 run differential through 39 games and am somehow playing .667 ball. Their a couple blowout losses from a neutral run differential.

Nothing like being in second place in the AL East because of the Rays’ loathsome devil magic. I cannot accurately describe how much Tampa infuriates me.

Tampa Bay Rays (26-13) 4, Boston Red Sox (17-23) 1: Boston is useless. The one time we need them to do something, they shrivel up and die. Tampa split the first two games of this weekend set and wasted no time in the rubber match. Junior Caminero hit a solo shot in the first. In the third, a pair of singles plated two more runs and, lo and behold, that’s all the Rays needed on the day.

On the mound, Nick Martinez continued his mesmerizing season. 5.2 innings of one-run ball lowered his season ERA to 1.70, just a speck lower than his career 4.04 mark. After he departed, three Rays relievers combined to hurl 3.1 scoreless frames. Of course. Ladies and gentlemen, the first place Tampa Bay Rays.

Toronto Blue Jays (18-22) 1, Los Angeles Angels (16-25) 6: Jays fans rejoice. Y’all managed to score a run off Angels ace Jose Soriano. And in the first inning, no less. Kazuma Okamoto doubled in Daulton Varsho and the Jays had the Angels on the ropes early. But then, Soriano did Soriano things. One of the early season favorites for the AL Cy Young Award, Soriano allowed not a run the rest of the way, departing after 7.2 frames.

At the dish, former Yankee Oswald Peraza provided all the offense the Angels ended up needing. His two-run home run in the top of the fifth made it 2-1 Angels. They added two more that inning, with lone runs in the sixth and ninth cementing their win over last season’s Junior Circuit champs.

As an aside, if I tried, I don’t think I could describe how much Peraza learning to hit major league pitching makes me want to gnaw on the floorboards. After Sunday, Peraza is hitting .282 with an .815 OPS. Last year, in his most extended stint as a Yankee, he hit .152 with a .452 OPS in 71 games. You can’t predict baseball, Suzyn.

Other Games

Cleveland Guardians (21-21) 4, Minnesota Twins (18-23) 5: This one was tight into the middle innings, at which time the Guards and starter Gavin Williams fell apart. Double, single, double, single off Williams in the fifth made it 3-1 Minnesota. Not finished, after Williams managed to get two outs, the Twins added two more run-scoring singles to extend the lead to 5-1. Give Cleveland credit. They clawed their way back into it, with runs in the fifth and sixth cutting the lead in half. Then in the eighth, they scratched another run across and even put the winning run in scoring position. Alas, Rhys Hoskins grounded out to end the threat. That was their last best chance.

Detroit Tigers (19-22) 6, Kansas City Royals (19-22) 3: The American League Central, mediocrity is thy name. Detroit and the Royals faced off on Sunday Night Baseball and, after fighting one another to a draw early, the Tigers’ offense broke through in the late innings for the win. The big blow came off the bat of Gage Workman. Coming in to tonight with zero career home runs in limited action, the Tigers’ #99 channeled his inner Aaron Judge when called on to pinch-hit in the sixth. His tw0-run dinger broke a 3-3 tie and sent the Tigers to victory.

Seattle Mariners (19-22) 1, Chicago White Sox (19-21) 2: The Mariners offense managed to score early, scraping a lone run across in the first. Then, it went into hibernation, making nary a dent in the run column the rest of the way. Predictably, one run was not enough to win, though it looked like it might for most of the game. But in the bottom of the eighth, recent Yankee friend Randal Grichuk tied the game with a solo home run before a Miguel Vargas sacrifice fly later in the inning scored the eventual game-winning run. Tough times in Seattle, with Cal Raleigh hitting .161 with a .573 OPS after Sunday’s game.

Texas Rangers (19-21) 3, Chicago Cubs (27-14) 0: Listen, beating the Chicago Cubs these days is a big deal. No duff. It helps that Texas sent Jacob deGrom out for Sunday’s game. The multi-time Cy Young Award winner was in vintage form, stymieing the Cubs for seven shutout innings with 10 strikeouts, allowing a paltry three hits and no walks. A fourth inning fielder’s choice put Texas on the board. An Evan Carter two-run home run in the eighth provided the insurance and closed out the scoring.

The modern MLB Draft format only really started in 1987, as there used to be multiple drafts in each year, with January and June drafts plus secondary drafts for each. That means we are entering the 40th draft under the current format, though the number of days and rounds has changed at times in those 40 years.

I thought with this being the 40th draft, now would be a good time to take a look back at some of the best and worst picks that the Atlanta Braves have made during that time. The majority of the best picks will be all over the place, while the majority of the worst picks will come from the top two rounds.

The only qualification for making this list is the player had to have signed as a part of that draft. For that reason, you won’t find Anthony Rendon on the best picks list. For the same reason you won’t find Carter Stewart on the worst picks list.

Best Picks

1. Chipper Jones, SS, 1990 – It’s not easy for a #1 overall pick to make this list, let alone top it – but Chipper Jones wasn’t ordinary by the standards of the top overall selection. The Hall of Famer, and one of the faces of the Braves dynasty run was an MVP, Batting Champion, and World Series winner who hit .303/.401/.529 with 468 homers as a career-long Brave.

2. Freddie Freeman, 1B, 2007 – It’s easy to forget that Freddie Freeman wasn’t the Braves top pick in the 2007 class, or even the most hyped prospect out of that group thanks to Jason Heyward. However the Braves second rounder has carved out a future Hall of Fame career, hitting .299/.385/.509 with 370 homers, an MVP, Gold Glove, and 3 World Series rings – including one World Series MVP. Though he if now in his fifth season with the Dodgers, Freeman’s contributions to the Braves and helping lead them from rebuilding organization to 2021 World Series champs won’t be forgotten anytime soon.

3. Brian McCann, C, 2002 – The second round pick in 2022, Brian McCann took over the Braves catching job in 2005 and held it through the 2013 season, before leaving to sign with the Yankees. He returned home to play his final season as a Brave in 2019, posting a career .262/.337/.452 slash with 282 homers. The seven-time All Star even won a World Series ring with the 2017 Astros. McCann reached the Hall of Fame ballot in the 2025 voting, but was removed after receiving just 1.8% of the vote.

4. Adam Wainwright, RHP, 2000 – The 29th pick in the 2000 draft never saw Atlanta, thanks to being traded to the Cardinals for JD Drew after the 2003 season. Still he deserves to be ranked high on this list as a player who will be getting considered for a possible spot in the Hall of Fame. Waino spent his entire career in St. Louis, going 200-128 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with 2202 strikeouts over 2668.1 innings. He might have had even better counting stats, but missed all of 2011 and parts of 2015 and 2018 with injuries, along with the shortened 2020 season. He retired after the 2023 season at the age of 41.

5. Craig Kimbrel, RHP, 2008 – Craig Kimbrel was actually drafted out of his Alabama JUCO twice by the Braves, though he didn’t sign as a 33rd round pick in 2007. He did sign as a third rounder in 2008, and went on to become arguably the greatest closer in franchise history. A current Met, he has a career 2.63 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 440 saves, and 1293 strikeouts over 830 innings pitched. Out of his 440 saves, 186 came in a Braves uniform, and he pitched to a 1.43 ERA and 0.91 WHIP with the team. He was traded to the Padres just before Opening Day in 2015, right at the start of the Braves rebuild – a move that netted the Braves another member of this list with the Competitive Balance Round A pick that was part of his return. He will likely be considered for the Hall of Fame once that time comes for him.

6. Kevin Millwood, RHP, 1993 – An 11th round pick in 1993, Kevin Millwood reached the bigs in 1997, and had his breakout in 1999 when he finished third in Cy Young voting. He was a bit more up and down over the next three seasons with the Braves, before they flipped him to the Phillies after the 2022 season for catcher Johnny Estrada. Overall he went 169-152 with a 4.11 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 2083 strikeouts in 2720.1 innings, earning 29.8 bWAR. Millwood was an All Star just once, in 1999, but twice received Cy Young votes, and led the AL in ERA with Cleveland in 2005.

7. Jason Schmidt, RHP, 1991 – An eighth round pick in 1991, Jason Schmidt became a top prospect for the Braves. He hadn’t quite broken out yet in 22 big league games, when the Braves flipped him to the Pirates in 1996 for Denny Neagle. Schmidt ended up going on to win 130 games with a 3.96 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 1758 strikeouts over 1996.1 innings. He was a three-time All Star, and led the NL in ERA in 2003 when he finished second in the Cy Young voting with the Giants. Overall he posted 29.5 bWAR, which turned out to be a steal in the eighth round.

8. Andrelton Simmons, SS, 2010 – Andrelton Simmons was taken in the second round in 2010, and by 2012 had become the Braves starting shortstop. Although he was a career .263/.312/.366 hitter with 70 homers, he was a highlight machine that became the best defensive shortstop – and possibly even player, in baseball. That led to Simmons posting 36.5 bWAR. Like Kimbrel he was traded in 2015, after the season, to the Angels as the Braves got further into their rebuild.

9. Jermaine Dye, OF, 1993 – A 17th round pick in 1993, Jermaine Dye quickly became a top prospect for the Braves. They brought him up in 1996 and saw him slash .281/.304/.459 with 12 homers in 98 games. Unfortunately the Braves were in win-now mode at that time, and after the year sent him to the Royals in the deal that brought in Michael Tucker and Keith Lockhart. Dye went on to slash .274/.338/.488 with 325 homers in 14 big league seasons with four teams. He was a two-time All Star that finished fifth in AL MVP voting in 2006, when he hit 44 homers with 120 RBI for the White Sox. Dye, who put up 20.3 bWAR, also won a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, and was the World Series MVP in the White Sox 2005 title run.

10. Austin Riley, 3B, 2015 – The player acquired with the Competitive Balance pick received in the Craig Kimbrel trade is Austin Riley. The 41st pick in the 2015 draft, a former two-way high school star, Riley has been a two-time All Star and Silver Slugger, as well as winning the 2021 World Series. For his career Riley is hitting .267/.332/.486 with 174 homers – and won’t turn 30 until the start of next season. He has already produced 22.5 bWAR for the Braves.

11. Ryan Klesko, LHP, 1989 – A fifth round pick in 1989, future Braves slugger Ryan Klesko is actually listed as being drafted as a left-handed pitcher. That is because he was seen as a guy with real potential on the mound, though his impressive power ended up continuing his development as a bat. Klesko slashed .279/.370/.500 with 278 homers over parts of 16 big league seasons. The one-time All Star, who won a ring as a member of the 1995 Braves, put up 26.9 bWAR – a number that would surely be higher if not for his well below average defense bringing that total down. Klesko hit 20+ homers in four of the five seasons he played 100+ games with the Braves, before being traded to the Padres after the 1999 season in the deal that brought Reggie Sanders, Wally Joyner, and Quilvio Veras to Atlanta.

12. Michael Harris II, CF, 2019 – The third round pick in 2019 rose quickly through the minors out of high school to win the Rookie of the Year in 2022 – despite losing his 2020 season to the Covid shutdown. After posting OPS marks of .853 and .808 in his first two years, injury and issues with his swing resulted in marks of .722 and .678 in his next two years. Harris did come back on in the second half of last year, and presently has a .841 OPS this year, while also being one of the top defensive centerfielders in the league. For his career he is a .275/.309/.454 hitter with 80 homers, and is still in just his age-25 season with 15.2 bWAR produced.

13. Spencer Strider, RHP, 2020 – A fourth rounder in that weird 2020 draft, Spencer Strider has quickly established himself as one of the best pitchers in the game. After finishing second in the Rookie of the Year to a teammate, and fellow member of this list in 2022, Strider finished fourth in the Cy Young voting in 2023. Unfortunately Tommy John hit him after just two starts in 2024, and he spent 2025 trying to get himself back into form. An injury has kept him to just one start, which had to be at Coors Field, so far this year as we wait to see what version of Strider is really in there right now. Overall he is 39-24 with a 3.77 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 632 strikeouts in 458.1 innings.

Honorable Mention:

Marcus Giles, 2B, 1996 (53rd round), Kris Medlen, RHP, 2006 (10th round), Mike Stanton, LHP, 1987 (13th round), Tommy Hanson, RHP, 2005 (22nd round), Adam LaRoche, 1B, 2000 (29th round), Jonny Venters, LHP, 2003 (30th round), Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP, 2021 (2nd round), Drake Baldwin, C, 2022 (3rd round)

AJ Smith-Shawver, JR Ritchie, and Hurston Waldrep have not done enough to qualify for the list, but this group could move their way up in the coming years – just like other recent draftees Schwellenbach and Baldwin can.

Worst Picks

1. Mike Kelly, OF, 1991 – The year the Braves turned around to start their great 90s-00s run, they were given the second overall pick. They went for a college star from a top program, with a pick they were hoping could front the lineup with Chipper Jones. However things didn’t quite work out for Kelly, as he produced just 0.3 fWAR over 327 big league games. That 1991 draft produced guys like Manny Ramirez, Shawn Green, Cliff Floyd, Aaron Sele, and Doug Glanville among others. One of those guys would have helped that special run much more than Kelly did. It is worth noting that the Braves picked second because the AL and NL alternated years with the top pick for the worst team, and if they picked first they likely would have taken generational pitching prospect Brien Taylor – whose career never really got going due to an injury in a bar fight.

2. Tyler Houston, C, 1989 – Houston was the second overall pick in 1989, and he produced 1.4 fWAR over 700 big league games. Similar to Lilliquist, that’s just not enough impact this high, and he was selected second when Frank Thomas and Charles Johnson were among the Top 10 picks. That doesn’t even include Mo Vaughn and Chuck Knoblauch in the first round.

3. Derek Lilliquist, LHP, 1987 – The sixth pick in the famous Ken Griffey Jr. class had a 262 game big league career over the course of eight seasons, including 41 starts for the Braves and producing 4.7 fWAR. The reason he made the list is because a couple of picks later Kevin Appier was selected. A few of the other players in that first round include Craig Biggio, Delino DeShields Sr., Mike Remlinger, Travis Fryman, and Pete Harnisch. When you’re picking that high, you’re hoping for a little more impact than a guy who ended up being a journeyman reliever.

4. Sean Gilmartin, LHP, 2011 – This was a questionable pick right from the start, as the Braves used the 28th pick on a soft tossing lefty that was a college ace. Gilmartin did appear in 81 big league games over six seasons with three different teams, pitching to a 4.34 ERA in 112 career innings. There were plenty of other options in that first round including Blake Snell, Trevor Story, Joe Musgrove, Michael Fulmer, Jackie Bradley Jr., Andrew Chafin, and Joe Panik.

5. Jason Hursh, RHP, 2013 – The 31st pick in 2013 was seen as a questionable pick at the time, as most thought he would end up being a reliever. That ended up being exactly what happened, as he ended up moving to the bullpen within two years of being drafted. Hursh appeared in 11 big league games with the Braves, during the 2016 and 2017 seasons – while the team was rebuilding, and pitched to a 8.25 ERA in 12 innings. The very next pick ended up being Aaron Judge, while Sean Manaea, Michael Lorenzen, and Corey Knebel were among the other first rounders taken after Hursh.

6. Jamie Arnold, RHP, 1992 – The 21st pick of the 1992 MLB Draft, Arnold actually appeared in 50 big league games with the Dodgers and Cubs after becoming a free agent after the 1998 season – though he racked up a 5.73 ERA in those games. The reason he makes this list is because the next two picks in that draft were Rick Helling and Jason Kendall, a pair of players that put up 61.9 bWAR over their careers. Charles Johnson again went within the next 10 picks, this time signing with the Marlins.

7. Matt Lipka, SS/OF, 2010 – The 35th pick in 2010 was a former two sport star in high school that the Braves wanted to continue developing as a contact and speed oriented prospect. It never worked out, as he topped out at Triple-A and never truly settled into one defensive position. Some of the other options here included Noah Syndergaard, Nick Castellanos, and Taijuan Walker.

8. Ryan Cusick, RHP, 2021 – A year after taking Jared Shuster in the first out of Wake Forest with mixed reactions, the Braves doubled down on Wake arms. Cusick was met with an even tougher reaction when announced, and so far he hasn’t really done much to prove the team right. As of now he is in Triple-A with the Phillies organization, but he owns a career 5.55 ERA in his minor league career. The Braves were widely expected to take Gavin Williams with this pick, but he came off the board one pick earlier by Cleveland, and they pivoted to Cusick over Jackson Merrill and Carson Williams among others. This would rank higher on the list if not for the fact the Braves traded him to then-Oakland as part of the deal that brought Matt Olson in to replace Freddie Freeman.

9. Braden Shewmake, INF, 2019 – The Braves surprised people when they took Texas A&M infielder Braden Shewmake with the 21st pick in the 2019 MLB Draft. That pick was one I was known to be very critical of at the time, and to date he has played in 39 career big league games since the start of 2023 – though he is on the Astros active roster at the moment. Shewmake has a career .447 OPS, though he is five for 16 with a pair of homers this year. Anthony Volpe and Michael Busch were the best players in the remainder of that first round, though Gunnar Henderson was the first pick of that second round.

10. Cole Phillips, RHP, 2022 – The Braves used a second round pick on an injured prep pitcher in 2022 named Cole Phillips. He was seen as a potential first rounder that spring, before his injury happened. He wasn’t expected to pitch until at least mid-to-late 2023, but has never pitched in a professional game almost four years later. Some of the other second rounders that year included Jacob Misiorowski, Roman Anthony, and Chandler Simpson.

11. Joey Devine, RHP, 2005 – The Braves used the 27th pick in 2005 on a college closer that they thought they could quickly get to the big leagues to help fix a bullpen that was a problem at the time. Devine was actually rushed to the big leagues, making his debut in August, but never did much in a Braves uniform. He did have one great season in Oakland, pitching to a 0.59 ERA in 42 appearances, but only pitched in 93 games as injuries took their toll on him. The Braves could have taken Colby Rasmus, who went with the very next pick, or fellow first rounders Clay Buchholz or Jed Lowrie instead.

12. Beau Philip, INF, 2019 – Philip is the rare second round pick to make this list, but that is because he was seen as a head scratching pick at the time. Most expected Philip to go somewhere between the fifth and seventh rounds, but the Braves took the Oregon State product with the 60th pick. He played 352 games in the Braves system, posting a career OPS of just .615. Some of the names drafted after him in that second round include Kyle Stowers, Josh Smith, and Jared Triolo. The only reason Philip isn’t even higher on this list is the fact that he took an underslot bonus of $700k to sign, which saved the Braves about $450k – money that was used to sign Michael Harris.

13. Jared Shuster, LHP, 2020 – The 25th pick in the weird 2020 MLB Draft, Shuster was a pick who was met with mixed reactions from the jump when the Braves took him out of Wake Forest. He has pitched in 66 big league games, including four with the Cardinals this year, though has a 5.12 ERA in 149.1 career innings – including 11 starts with the Braves in 2023, before going to the White Sox in the Aaron Bummer deal. After Shuster, Tyler Soderstrom was the next pick, and Jordan Westburg, Austin Wells, and Carmen Mlodzinski also came off the board in the next six picks.

The results of these Cubs games are getting more stratified. Four of the last five losses have felt pretty lopsided. Even in that other game, the Cubs allowed nine runs. You do expect to lose nearly 100 percent of the games in which you allow nine runs. Also, the Cubs have only lost five of their last 25 games. The Cubs either feel a little overmatched, or they find a way to win the game. When those proportions are 4 to 1, you have to feel pretty good about your chances to make a very deep run in the season.

As a blogger, the way these losses are going doesn’t make a lot to talk about. This feels like a just throw it away and move on, just like Saturday’s game. The larger concern out of this, to the extent that there is one, is the offense getting stifled for two straight games. I’m not ready to worry about it. Certainly, before Sunday’s game we talked about it. When healthy, Jacob deGrom has been a borderline Hall of Fame pitcher. The only question that will ever exist with him is if the body of work is large enough to justify his inclusion.

Even with the two shutouts over the weekend, the Cubs still own the top team on base percentage in baseball. Their slugging still sits fifth. The net result has their team OPS at fourth overall. By pretty much any objective measure, they have a top five offense. The offense failed them this weekend. But I do not think this was some kind of gateway drug to a punchless offense and a lot of losses. There are more tough games ahead, but I expect the team to bounce back quickly.

Your mileage may vary, and all of our expectations are probably drifting upwards, but none of us suddenly thought this team was heading for 110ish wins.

Three Positives:

• Nico Hoerner had a single, a double and a stolen base. He should have been on Team USA. He’s a great bench player for a team like that.
• Phil Maton faced four batters, retiring them all and striking out two.
• Michael Busch had a single in three plate appearances.

Game 41, May 10: Rangers 3, Cubs 0 (27-14)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Jameson Taillon (.111). 5.1 IP, 22 BF, 4 H, 2 BB, ER, 4 K (L 2-2)
• Hero: Phil Maton (.082). 1.1 IP, 4 BF, 2 K
• Sidekick: Nico Hoerner (.071). 2-4, 2B

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Moisés Ballesteros (-.130). 0-4
• Goat: Daniel Palencia (-.110). 0.2 IP, 4 BF, 2 H, 2 ER, K
• Kid: Seiya Suzuki (-.110). 0-4

WPA Play of the Game: Evan Carter hit a two-out, two-run homer in the eighth inning to increase the Ranger lead to three. (.114)

*Cubs Play of the Game: Jameson Taillon faced Josh Jung with no outs and runners on first and second in the first inning, the game scoreless. He coaxed a double play ball, contributing to a scoreless first. (.085)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 40 Winner: Ethan Roberts received 40 of 91 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 3/Bottom 3)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Michael Conforto +13
• Michael Busch +11
• Shōta Imanaga +10
• Dansby Swanson/Jacob Webb/Caleb Thielbar/ -6
• Matt Shaw -9
• Seiya Suzuki -15

Current Win Pace: 106.68 wins

Up Next: A rare off day Monday, following 10 games in a row and 23 games in 24 days. Tuesday night, they face the Braves (28-13) in Atlanta. Colin Rea (4-1, 4.03, 38 IP) makes his sixth start (ninth appearance) of the year. Last time out, he allowed one run on six hits and three walks over 5.1 innings. He’s been better at home (2.66 v 5.60) but also better at night (2.77 v 675) than during the day time.

30-year-old Grant Holmes (2-1, 4.34, 37.1 IP) makes his eighth start of the year. The first round (22nd overall) pick of the Dodgers (2014) allowed five runs in five innings in a start against the Rockies. Better away (3.63 v 5.40) than home. Also better during the day than at night (3.86 v 4.56).

The Braves are tough.

Find a way and get back in the win column.

Go Cubs

Recaps

[Arizona Sports] Eduardo Rodriguez nearly earns complete game in win vs. Mets – Torey Lovullo and starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez made a deal after the eighth inning of Rodriguez’s gem during a 5-1 win over the New York Mets on Sunday. Rodriguez had thrown 91 pitches and held the Mets to one run, so he asked to go back out for 10 more pitches to try and earn his first career complete game. Lovullo obliged. A strikeout and a bloop single later, Lovullo predictably heard the ire of booing fans at Chase Field as he collected the baseball from Rodriguez at 100 pitches, and Rodriguez received a standing ovation for a series-clinching performance.

[Dbacks.com] Not satisfied with an 8-inning gem, E-Rod talks his way into starting the 9th – The 33-year-old spun 8 1/3 dominant frames, not allowing a hit until the sixth inning. He scattered four knocks – none of which registered as hard-hit (95-plus mph) per Statcast – and walked three, but allowed just one run. His outing marks the sixth consecutive game in which a D-backs starter has gone at least six innings, the longest current streak in the Majors. “You see a guy on the mound that doesn’t give you a lot of emotion,” bench coach Jeff Banister said of Rodriguez pregame. “But under the hood, this guy is competing as much as anybody that we’ve got on the field.”

[New York Post] Mets’ no-show offense, brutal defense sink them in loss – The Mets disrespected all mothers on their day by not playing nice. A no-show lineup has become the norm, but Sunday they added shoddy defense — or run prevention, if you prefer — into the equation and departed the desert with sand in their pants in a 5-1 loss to the Diamondbacks. It was a second straight game the Mets (15-25) scored only one run after scoring only once in nine innings Friday before adding two in the 10th to win. The Mets lost the series, completing a 5-4 road trip that also included stops in Anaheim and Colorado. Juan Soto, the team’s best hitter, went 4-for-33 (.121) on the road trip with one homer.

Team news

[Dbacks.com] McCann’s wife Jessica the glue that holds it all together – There’s not a day that goes by that the Diamondbacks catcher doesn’t marvel at what she’s done to hold their family together. “For lack of a better term, mothers married to professional baseball players are essentially single parents for nine months out of the year,” McCann said. “It’s been especially tough for her recently since the boys have started school. It used to be that they were at least with me full-time. Now they’re back home. And when they’re home, I mean, she’s truly the definition of a single parent. She’s home alone and taking the kids to school, sports, birthday parties, you know, everything by herself.”

[SI] What D-backs’ Huge Series Win vs Mets Told Us — And What it Didn’t – Lovullo has tried to avoid taking credit for the turnaround of the rotation, but it’s a fact that the starting pitcher group has performed at a high level since their “one-way” meeting with their manager. That continued in a massive way against the Mets. [But] How much success was owed to Mets’ struggles? It’s a good sign that the D-backs’ pitching was able to capitalize on poor offense. It’s also worth noting they held Juan Soto and Bo Bichette to a combined 0-for-20 in the series. But the Mets’ offensive track record does put a bit of an asterisk on the overall pitching results.

[AZ Central] Lovullo dealing with illness, but not missing work – For a while Sunday morning, it was unclear whether Lovullo was going to be able to manage the game. Battling an illness, he did not do his usual pregame session with reporters and did not decide he was managing until less than an hour before the game. “Rough morning — real early this morning all the way up until about 7:30, 8 o’clock,” Lovullo said, adding that he decided to manage after a team doctor assured him he wouldn’t get anyone sick. The club announced about 20 minutes before first pitch that Lovullo would manage. Bench coach Jeff Banister said he found out around 6:30 a.m. that Lovullo was not feeling well. Banister was ready to step in for Lovullo.

And, elsewhere…

[MLB] Here are MLB’s top Mother’s Day moments – Each Mother’s Day, players swing pink bats and don pink gear to pay tribute to mom. They also sometimes honor mom with a memorable moment, like when Brandon Nimmo talked about his mom during an interview and cranked a walk-off bomb several innings later. Here’s a look at that special home run and a few other recent Mother’s Day memories.

[New York Post] Yasiel Puig homers twice in debut for Canadian baseball team weeks before facing possible prison sentence – Puig signed with the Maple Leafs of the Canadian Baseball League late last month and Sunday was his first game with the semi-pro team.  All of this occurred 20 days out from a sentencing hearing slated for May 26 in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California in Los Angeles.  He was found guilty of obstruction of justice and providing false statements to federal investigators who had been looking into an illegal sports gambling operation. He is potentially facing 15 years in jail, though he could receive a more lenient sentence for the situation.

[AP] Turang’s homer off Bednar in 9th helps Brewers complete sweep with 4-3 win over Yankees – Brice Turang homered off David Bednar with two outs in the ninth inning, and the Milwaukee Brewers completed a three-game sweep of the New York Yankees with a 4-3 victory Sunday. Milwaukee had not swept the Yankees in a series of at least three games since August 1989. The Brewers improved their interleague record since 2022 to a major league-best 116-65. They are 14-7 against American League teams and 8-9 against National League squads this season. [Fun fact: Brewers reliever Aaron Ashby currently leads all MLB pitchers in wins, with seven]

The Orioles were on the wrong end of a four-game sweep the last time they played New York. Baltimore is guaranteed to avoid the same fate in this series as the Yankees are only in town for three.

Baltimore lost three in a row before picking up a 2-1 win on Sunday. The Orioles found a way to win despite another low offensive output. Baltimore has only eclipsed four runs in two of their last 10 games. The Yankees won each of the last four matchups by at least five runs.

Samuel Basallo and Adley Rutschman have attempted to keep the ship afloat while several Orioles struggle. Pete Alonso appeared to experience a jolt during his return to New York. Gunnar Henderson has yet to find his groove, but this series would mark a fine time to get things going.

Rico Garcia remains a bright spot for a bullpen that has been asked to carry a heavy load. Bassitt technically didn’t start on Sunday, but he turned in his best appearance of the year. Perhaps that appearance will help set the tone for a rotation that has disappointed to this point of the season. A healthy Trevor Rogers should help the cause as well.

The Yankees will look to take out some frustration on the Orioles after getting swept out of Milwaukee. The Brewers beat New York 4-3 during the series finale on Mother’s Day.

Game 1: Monday, May 11, 6:35. MASN

RHP Brandon Young (3-1, 4.35 ERA) vs. LHP Ryan Weathers (2-2, 3.03 ERA)

Brandon Young is the only starter that the Orioles have officially named for this series. Young settled after an early hiccup and delivered a quality start his last time out against the Marlins. The Orioles need Young to turn in consistent outings with Cade Povich joining Rogers, Dean Kremer and Zach Eflin on the injured list. The righty did not face the Yankees in the previous series.

The Orioles tallied three runs against Weathers last week but only one of the three runs were earned. Alonso tagged a solo homer in the fourth, but Weathers cruised to his second victory of the season.

Game 2: Tuesday, May 12, 6:35. MASN

TBD vs. RHP Will Warren (4-1, 3.46 ERA)

The Orioles have yet to announce a starter for Tuesday’s game. Trevor Rogers recently told reporters that he does not expect to go on a rehab assignment after hitting the 15-day IL with an illness. Rogers would be eligible to come off the injured list for this appearance, and he recently threw a bullpen that could lineup with a start on Tuesday. Trey Gibson is currently with the team after pitching two innings of relief on Friday.

Warren coasted to his fourth victory against the Orioles last week. The Yankee starter tossed 6.1 innings while limiting Baltimore to three hits, two runs (one earned), and one walk. Warren struck out nine batters, but Alonso did manage to take him yard.

Game 3: Wednesday, May 13, 6:35. MASN

TBD vs. LHP Max Fried (4-2, 2.91 ERA)

Kyle Bradish could start Game 3 after tossing seven strong innings on Friday. The righty struck out 10 batters while limiting the Athletics to three runs, but Baltimore’s offense failed to pick him up after a frustrating fifth inning. Still, the results were the most encouraging that Bradish has delivered this season. The Orioles would absolutely love for Bradish to reestablish himself as a top-of-the-rotation arm, and he could have an opportunity to do just that in the series finale.

Baltimore had a chance to really get to Fried last week, but they let him off the hook with some poor performances with runners in scoring position. Fried still allowed three earned runs over 5.1 innings, and he followed that outing with another pedestrian outing against the Brewers. Fried is still no joke on the mound, but the Orioles must take advantage if they catch him during another rough patch.

How do you think the Orioles will do in this three game series against the Yankees? Give us your prediction in the comments below!

Good morning! A frustrating 2-1 loss to the Chicago White Sox last night saw a Logan Gilbert gem erased in the eighth inning, and a lack of Mariner run support gave Chicago the series win.

George Kirby will take the mound tonight at 5:10 PM in a new four-game series against the Houston Astros. The Mariners will hope to bring the success of their previous Astros series into this one and wake up some of the lineup’s important bats. Who are you hoping to see as a difference maker in this series?

In Mariners news…

• The Mariners have recently switched around their batting order amid Cal Raleigh’s hitting slump.
• In the May update of Baseball America’s Top 100 prospect rankings, the Mariners now have two of the top 10 with shortstop Colt Emerson moving up to No. 4 and LHP Kade Anderson moving up to No. 9.

Around the league…

• Athletics shortstop Jacob Wilson left the team’s game early yesterday due to a left shoulder sprain.
• Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Oneil Cruz joined the legendary Barry Bonds as the only two players in franchise history to have at least 10 home runs and 10 steals through the Pirates’ first 41 games of the season.
• Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Mookie Betts is set to be activated today after recovering from a right oblique strain for the past month.
• San Francisco Giants ace Logan Webb has been placed on the 15-day IL for the first time in five years with right knee bursitis.
• Detroit Tigers outfielder Kerry Carpenter has been placed on the 10-day IL with a left AC joint sprain.
• New York Yankees LHP Carlos Rodon made his 2026 debut yesterday after beginning the season on the IL due to a bone spur in his left elbow.
• The Los Angeles Angels have signed lefty reliever Rob Kaminsky to a minor league deal.

Dodgers affiliates fought multiple opponents on Sunday — opposing offenses, and rain.

Player of the day

Great Lakes right fielder Jose Meza was in the middle of all three scoring innings for the Loons in Sunday’s win. He walked with the bases loaded in the third inning, hit a two-run double in the fourth, then doubled home another in the seventh.

Mesa tied his season high with four RBI (also done on April 21), and added a single in the eighth to match his season high of three hits (also April 5 and April 28).

Triple-A Oklahoma City

The series finale between the Comets and Salt Lake Bees (Angels) was canceled due to inclement weather.

The teams do not meet again in the first half of the season, so Sunday’s game will not be made up later this year.

Double-A Tulsa

A five-run seventh against Roque Gutierrez and Christian Suarez spelled doom for the Drillers in a rainy road loss to the Arkansas Travelers (Mariners).

Down three in the ninth, Tulsa got two-out walks by Kendall George and Josue De Paula, then a single by Kyle Nevin for one run before the game was delayed with the tying runs on base. Zyhir Hope was due to bat to see if the comeback could be completed, but the weather never cooperated and the game was called with two outs in the ninth.

You might remember Elijah Hainline from making some highlight defensive playsin the middle infield as one of the high-number crew who suited up for several games during spring training. Tulsa’s shortstop on Sunday made waves at the plate, with two singles, a double, a stolen base, scored two runs, and drove in another. He had three multi-hit games during this series in Arkansas.

High-A Great Lakes

Meza delivered all four RBI by the Loons in their win over the Lake County Captains (Guardians), but Great Lakes scored seven runs in total. One of those other three runs came home on a balk, and the other two scored on a fielding error at third base.

Great Lakes thus far has eased Brooks Auger back from the injured list, missing about a month after a pulled groin in spring training. He’s lasted between two and three innings in his three starts so far, but the results are there, including five strikeouts in 2 2/3 scoreless frames on Sunday, allowing only two singles. In three games, Auger has allowed only one run in 7 2/3 innings, with 14 strikeouts against only two walks and a phenomenal 38.7-percent strikeout-minus-walk rate.

Jose Hernandez, promoted on Saturday, started at first base Sunday and was 0-for-3 with a walk and hit by pitch in his High-A debut.

Class-A Ontario

Jesus Tillero had a rough start, allowing eight runs while recording 10 outs in the Tower Buzzers’ loss to the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes.

Third baseman Chase Harlan had two hits, extending his hit streak to nine games. Jaron Elkins had two hits as the designated hitter on Sunday and stole two bases. Elkins, who stole 63 bases last season, has 16 steals in 19 attempts this season in 30 games.

Transactions

Triple-A: Right-hander Wyatt Mills was called up to the Dodgers bullpen, and Paul Gervase was optioned back to Oklahoma City.

Sunday scores

• Oklahoma City vs. Salt Lake, canceled (rain)
• Arkansas 8, Tulsa 6
• Great Lakes 7, Lake County 4
• Rancho Cucamonga 10, Ontario 2

The week ahead

• Oklahoma City at Albuquerque (Rockies)
• Tulsa vs. Springfield (Cardinals)
• Great Lakes vs. West Michigan (Tigers)
• Ontario vs. San Jose (Giants)

Dusty Baker infamously refused to play Yainer Diaz at catcher more than once or twice a week during his first full season in the big leagues in 2023. The reasoning was that he wasn’t ready for the rigors of everyday catching. What many of us pointed out at the time was that Diaz was a vastly superior hitter to the incumbent Martin Maldonado, and the defensive metrics seemed to point to the fact that he was also the superior catcher as well that season.

I was one of those ringing that bell continually that season. I stand by that analysis. This is because we could add in some other numbers that measure the so-called intangibles. Intangibles are things we are not able to measure. Fans, scouts, coaches, and historians often cite intangibles when trying to pick between two seemingly similar players. One of the core beliefs in the lab is that intangibles are things we are not able to measure yet. The yet is the key word there.

Pitch framing used to be a skill that people counted as an intangible. It was called that because we had not figured out how to measure it. We now have a stat for that, so it is no longer an intangible. Similarly, those that call themselves experts (some are and some just call themselves experts) point to handling of the pitching staff and calling a game as an intangible. Can’t we measure it?

It would seem pretty easy to do and most sites actually have a number for it. They call it “catcher ERA.” It is the simple calculation of the pitchers that have thrown to that catcher and what their ERA was while doing it. It seems so simple, but most hardcore statisticians don’t look at it for one important reason; second catchers usually catch one or two pitchers exclusively. If those pitchers are really good or really bad that will skew the results.

These are the numbers most people look at when they start breaking down the Gold Glove awards. Obviously, there are numbers based on how well a catcher blocks pitches and dirt and a number for how well they control the running game. These numbers get combined into fielding run value and defensive runs saved. It is easy to see here that the good folks at the Fielding Bible and Fangraphs like Vazquez’s work more than Diaz. They think both are fairly neutral when looking at how they are handling pitchers.

Are they equal though? Sometimes the oldest and most simple numbers are the best ones. Back in 2023, the Astros had a better record in games that Diaz caught and the pitchers seemed to do just as well. So, all of the anecdotal evidence that pitchers liked to throw to Maldonado more than Diaz wasn’t borne out in the actual numbers that pitchers were putting up.

This is the ultimate problem with the current narrative. The current narrative is that Dusty Baker was right not play Diaz and Chas McCormick more in 2023 because they both suck now. Every season exists in its own universe and it is up to the manager to discover as quickly as possible what that particular season has in store. So, who Diaz was or wasn’t in 2023 is immaterial. The question becomes who is Yainer Diaz right now and how successful is he working with pitchers?

There are only two crude numbers we are going to look at. First, we will look at the average number of runs per game that the team has allowed when these two catchers were starting. Vazquez has now started 17 games on the season while Diaz started 22 before he went down with an injury. So, we will look at the number of runs per game the team has allowed in those starts and the team’s won-loss record when those catchers caught. I will do the same thing with both Diaz and Martin Maldonado in 2023 to demonstrate what I’m talking about.

2026

These numbers aren’t perfect. Diaz caught both of Hunter Brown’s starts and Vazquez caught all of the Imai starts. One could easily remove those to give this a more even look and we would see an even starker difference between the two. However, the point is pretty clear. Pitchers pitch better to Vazquez than they do to Diaz and the team is generally more successful. Obviously, Vazquez also currently has better offensive numbers, but even without the offensive numbers, the advantage would be there. Let me break down 2023 really quickly to demonstrate the difference.

2023

As we move closer to Memorial Day we come to realize that every season exists in its own universe. So, the notion that Dusty Baker was right because Yainer Diaz currently is no good makes very little sense. Diaz was better offensively in 2023. He was better defensively in 2023. The Astros allowed fewer runs per game when he caught and they won a higher percentage of games when he caught. The decision to play Maldonado was based on past considerations that were no longer true.

Similarly, it will likely be true that Diaz will end up being better offensively than Vazquez. For one, he was just starting to hit before he went down. For another, Vazquez’s Statcast numbers clearly indicate That he is due to regress any minute now. Still, the Astros pitchers are clearly doing better pitching to Vazquez and the Astros as a team are performing better when Vazquez catches. It might end up being closer to one fewer run a game. There is no way that Diaz could produce that much additional damage offensively. So, Vazquez is demonstrating that he should be the guy.

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It's only a six-game slate tonight, but I've still found immense value in my MLB player props, including from the likes of Nathan Eovaldi, Corbin Carroll, and Drew Rasmussen. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, May 11. 

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Nathan Eovaldi	Over 5.5 strikeouts	+113
Corbin Carroll	Over 1.5 total bases	+119
Drew Rasmussen	Over 4.5 strikeouts	-107

Nathan Eovaldi Over 5.5 strikeouts (+113)

Nathan Eovaldi has always had electrifying stuff. While the strikeout numbers this season aren't jumping off the page, he's still getting his fair share of swings and misses. Eovaldi has racked up 47 Ks in 47 2/3 innings of work. The right-hander has cashed the Over in punchouts in back-to-back outings, collecting 15 Ks during that span. 

In his most recent start, Eovaldi struck out eight Yankees. The Texas Rangers face the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight, and the D-Backs have struck out 8.33 times across their last three contests.

Eovaldi's stuff looks sharper lately, and he's also allowed just one earned run across his previous two appearances. He'll rack up the Ks again tonight. 

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ESPN+

Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 total bases (+119)

I may be eyeing Eovaldi to deal, but one Arizona hitter who has had success against him is Corbin Carroll. It hasn't been a banner year so far for the outfielder, hitting just .258. However, he's had Eovaldi's number, going 5-for-13 lifetime with a double, triple, and home run. Carroll has also cashed the Over in total bases in two of his last four contests. 

The 25-year-old had a double in the series opener against the New York Mets on Friday, and he also went deep on Thursday against the Pirates.

Although he isn't exactly tearing the cover off the baseball in May, facing a guy whom he's hit well against before screams value here, especially given Carroll's extra-base potential vs Eovaldi, who has already allowed 10 homers in eight starts. 

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ESPN+

Drew Rasmussen Over 4.5 strikeouts (-107)

Drew Rasmussen and the Tampa Bay Rays will face the Toronto Blue Jays tonight, and his last start came against them. Rasmussen ultimately tossed six innings, striking out five. He's cashed the Over in Ks in three straight, clearing tonight's total quite easily in the two starts prior as well.

The righty has struck out 19 hitters in 18 2/3 innings of work on the road, and he's hit the Over in five of his seven outings overall this season.

While the Jays do a phenomenal job of putting the ball in play, Rasmussen has very good stuff, and his total is relatively low. Clearing five Ks for the fourth straight start shouldn't be difficult after he found a rhythm against this same lineup last week. 

• Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SN1, Rays.TV

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