Category: MLB

Unless you have been living under a rock this year, you would know that the Nationals bullpen has struggled. The unit has an ERA over 5 and has blown a mind boggling 35 saves. However, in the last couple weeks the Nats have called up three home grown relievers who have all gotten off to impressive starts.

It is still very early days for Erik Tolman, Jared Simpson and Jack Sinclair, but so far they have impressed Nats fans. For Simpson and Sinclair, the jury is still very much out, with both only making one appearance. Tolman has plenty to prove as well but at least he has done it over multiple outings.

With the largest sample size, Tolman is the first name I want to talk about. His first five big league outings could not have gone much better. Through 6.2 innings, he has yet to allow a run and has struck out 8 batters. It also feels like he is getting better each time he takes the mound.

In his last appearance, Tolman came in with the bases loaded and nobody out in the 8th. He responded by getting a strikeout and double play to stamp out the threat. The 27 year old southpaw came back for the 9th and struck out the side. It was extremely impressive stuff from the rookie.

We have talked a lot about Tolman’s story, but his performance on the mound has been almost as impressive. His 97 MPH fastball gets on hitters in a hurry. With opponents fearing the fastball, Tolman can drop in his 85 MPH changeup which gets hitters way out in front. Against lefties, he will also feature a slider.

In the minors, command was an issue for Tolman. However, he has only walked two hitters so far in the big leagues. With a few more impressive outings, Tolman could easily lock down a spot in the 2027 bullpen. The raw stuff is impressive and the command has been better than expected for the former 14th rounder.

That is a theme for all of these guys. All three were late round picks who have command concerns. However, in the early going, all of them have been throwing strikes. Throughout his baseball life, Jared Simpson has struggled throwing strikes. It has gotten better this year, but he is still walking over 5 hitters per 9 in the minors. 

However, if you just watched his debut, you would not know that he has any command issues. The lefty out of Iowa was pounding the zone with his 4 pitches. He throws a 4-seamer, a sinker, a splitter and a slider. The sinker has been a massive addition this year and has been a big part of his breakout.

Like Tolman, Simpson came into his last appearance in a tough spot. He made his MLB debut facing the top of the Braves lineup with runners on first and second with nobody out. Simpson responded by getting a double play and flyout.

Just like Tolman, Jared Simpson kept going. He got nine outs while facing just 8 batters. At first, he was pitching to contact a lot. However, as he built up confidence, the strikeouts began to come. Simpson finished his outing by striking out the last two batters he faced. I can’t wait to see the former 8th rounder pitch again.

Jack Sinclair was the latest homegrown reliever to make his debut. He was thrown into a more forgiving spot than Simpson. Sinclair came into a 5-0 deficit, so the stakes were lower. However, he still had to face Max Muncy to start his MLB career.

Sinclair ended up winning a 10 pitch battle with Muncy, finishing him off on his signature sweeper. That sweeper is a pitch that Sinclair will lean on a lot. However, with a sinker at 96 and a 4-seamer that can touch 99, he has enough heat to keep guys honest.

After a breakout 2024 season in AA, Sinclair really struggled in Rochester last year. This season, his ERA was around 4, but he got a lot of strikeouts. His FIP of 3.65 was also encouraging. With the Max Kranick experiment failing, the Nats pulled the plug and decided to give Sinclair a look.

Last night was a good start for the righty, who tossed a 1-2-3 inning. The former 16th round pick looked the part in his debut. All of these guys were drafted by Mike Rizzo, but took major strides with the new regime. Tolman and Sinclair added velocity, while that sinker unlocked a lot for Simpson.

We still need to see more from all of these guys, but at worst, they are quality depth. These three have proven they can get outs at this level and have good stuff. To get full time spots in the bullpen moving forward, they need to do more. However, these are all intriguing arms that the Nats can use as optionable bullpen pieces.

The process to get here has been ugly, but the Nats are finally starting to build some bullpen depth. If Paul Toboni can find a closer this offseason, I actually think the bullpen can make massive strides. These three under the radar arms can be a part of that.

Major League Baseball on Friday announced spring training schedules for 2027, which count as the most tentative things on the baseball calendar. Amid an upcoming offseason of labor uncertainty, you can take to the bank that these spring schedules will be altered in some way as negotiations drag on.

In the lockout during the 2021-22 offseason, the Dodgers originally-planned spring training was scheduled to begin on February 26, with 33 games over 32 days getting ready for an opening day on March 31. A labor agreement wasn’t reached until March 11, which meant a new spring training starting on March 18, and opening day pushed to April 7.

So take this 2027 spring training schedule, but here is the original plan of games, which includes 30 games in Arizona, including 17 at Camelback Ranch, beginning Friday, February 19 against the Chicago White Sox. The Freeway Series against the Angels runs from March 21-23 with the first game at Dodger Stadium and the final two games in Anaheim.

Game times will be announced at a later date.

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San Diego is a slight market favorite after winning Friday’s opener, but I prefer the New York Yankees as a short underdog behind Carlos Rodón.

The Yankees have the better overall run-prevention profile, a stronger available bullpen and more offensive upside against a Robbie Ray season that has been better by ERA than by underlying metrics.

Here are my Yankees vs. Padres prediction and MLB picks for Saturday, Sept. 5.

Who will win Yankees vs Padres today: New York Yankees (48%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The New York Yankees are my side against the San Diego Padres. New York’s strength is pitching depth, while San Diego’s weakness is its starting staff. Yankees starters own a 3.33 ERA, compared with 4.34 for Padres starters, and available bullpens will favor the Yankees.

Carlos Rodon has averaged only 4.1 innings over his last five starts, but the Yankees can cover that risk with the better bullpen.

Robbie Ray’s 3.14 ERA is less convincing underneath: his 4.58 expected ERA ranks in the 38th percentile among qualified MLB pitchers. I suspect that his bottom 30 percentile barrel rate and hard-hit rate will loom large against a Bombers offense that has gotten going more over the last two weeks.

I’d play the Yankees to 52% for two units.

COVERS INTEL:Robbie Ray has allowed 20 home runs across 149 innings this season, creating a clear power vulnerability for the Padres.

Yankees vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (51%)

This Under is built around matchup-specific starting pitching.

Rodon has held the current Padres to a .278 wOBA, .207 xBA and .320 xSLG across 78 career plate appearances. Ray’s overall profile is less convincing, with a his previously mentioned underlying metrics, but the Yankees have just a .182 xBA against him over 83 plate appearances. That is a much better matchup for Ray than his season-long numbers suggest.

Rodon’s limited workload is the biggest threat to the Under. However, the relative strength of the Yankees bullpen should be enough to keep even a flimsy Under in tact.

With both lineups facing pitchers who have suppressed this specific group of hitters, I’d play Under 7.5 runs to 53%.

Yankees vs Padres home run prediction: Jazz Chisholm Jr. (13%)

I love Jazz music on a Saturday. The left-handed matchup is not ideal on the surface, but Jazz Chisholm Jr. has hit five homers in 157 plate appearances against lefties this season.

He also brings 19 home runs, a 42.9% hard-hit rate and a 90.8-mph average exit velocity. 

Ray’s primary four-seamer and slider have allowed a .426 and a 409 xwOBA.

Yankees vs Padres weather

Temperatures should sit in the upper 70s around first pitch, with mostly cloudy conditions and a chance of showers. There is no major wind advantage expected, so the weather does not move me off the Under.

Yankees vs Padres odds

• Moneyline: Yankees 48% | Padres 52%
• Run line: Yankees +1.5 | Padres -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Yankees vs Padres trend

The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 away games (+10.40 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Padres.

How to watch Yankees vs Padres and game info

Yankees vs Padres latest injuries

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The final game of the Cubs four-game series against the Brewers saw the Cubs eke out a series split on the back of a pitcher’s duel. Kevin Gausman and a pair of Ryans (Zeferjahn and Rolison) combined to hold the Brewers to one run while striking out 10, walking just one and surrendering five hits.

It’s exactly what you want from a bullpen on the back of a great start from Gausman, who threw seven innings, giving up the one run (it was a solo shot to Andrew Vaughn in the fourth). He gave up five hits and one walk, but stranded all of them while striking out nine. The bullpen was flawless, delivering two innings of scoreless, walkless, no nonsense or shenanigans relief. Let’s take a closer look at Gausman’s gem [VIDEO].

It was a radically different look from the pitching adventures of the prior two games, and while there is a lot of blame to go around for both of those outings today I want to zero in on the struggles Daniel Palencia has faced this season. A lot has been made of him “needing more time” to come back from injury, or whether a trip to the minors would help, but I have a sinking suspicion neither of those is the key to Palencia returning to closer form.

To be clear, there are signs that Palencia isn’t all the way recovered from injury. For starters, his four-seamer velocity is down, and while he stills throws gasolina, it’s worth noting that he’s only thrown one four-seamer over 100 miles per hour since returning from the injured list. That pitch averaged 100.3 miles per hour last July, and 99.9 miles per hour before he hit the injured list in May. Admittedly, these are tiny sample sizes, but it’s down to 99.1 miles per hour in August and 98.1 miles per hour so far in September. That is a meaningful dropoff and could explain some of the magnitude of different outcomes we’re seeing from Palencia since he’s returned from injury.

But the bigger issue for Palencia are his splits against left handed batters, and unfortunately, that’s an issue that predates 2026 as you can see from the table with his results by handedness below:

Palencia has had pretty drastic splits against lefthanded hitters almost every season he’s pitched in MLB. 2023 is an outlier, but even last season, there were hints that lefties were seeing the ball better against Palencia. That .340 OBP and .473 SLG jump off the page relative to his results against righties. This is where wOBA is particularly interesting, because as a solid proxy for OBP with slugging incorporated, we can see that the on-base and slugging advantage lefties have against Palencia has been pretty consistent through his, admittedly young, career.

While the Cubs pitching lab surely has thoughts on how to fix this over the long-term, the Cubs postsason chances and hopes in 2026 are extremely short-term. Even with Thursday’s victory over the Brewers they’ve fallen half a game off the top Wild Card spot. That is the difference between hosting the Phillies at Wrigley or having to play Philadelphia in Citizens Bank Park. Not all home field advantages are created equally, but it’s hard for me to imagine a bigger gap than playing the Phillies at home or on the road.

Unfortunately, with the Cubs desperate for innings due to the slings and arrows their pitching staff has suffered over the course of the season, that likely moves Palencia into lower leverage situations where he doesn’t have to face lefties down the stretch. He can still help the Cubs in September and October, but it may be a different role than we all envisioned at the start of the year.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (69-66) lost 8-5 (BOX SCORE)

McPherson started for Sugar Land but struggled allowing 8 runs over 3.2 innings. The offense got a run in the 2nd inning on a Price RBI single and a run in the 3rd on Ferreras solo home run. They got another in the 4th on a Cole RBI single and one in the 5th on a Delgado groundout. The bullpen was solid with scoreless outings and Price connected on a solo home run in the 9th but that was it as Sugar Land fell 8-5.

Note: Ferreras is hitting .321 in Triple-A.

• Zach Cole, CF: 1-for-4, RBI, BB
• Pascanel Ferreras, SS: 3-for-5, 2 R, HR, RBI
• Zach Dezenzo, RF: 1-for-2, 2 R, 2 BB, SB
• Ray Delgado, 2B: 1-for-4, RBI
• Collin Price, C: 2-for-3, R, HR, 2 RBI, BB, SB

• Brandon McPherson, RHP: 3.2 IP, 7 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
• Trey McLoughlin, RHP: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
• Alex Santos II, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
• Logan VanWey, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• Michael Knorr, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
• Miguel Ullola, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (59-71) lost 4-1 (BOX SCORE)

Torres got the start for the Hooks and allowed 3 runs over 2 innings. The offense got on the board in the bottom of the 2nd inning scoring a run on an error. The pen was solid allowing just one run over the next seven innings but the offense was unable to score again as the Hooks fell 4-1.

Note: Chirinos has a 3.04 ERA this season.

• Will Bush, 1B: 2-for-3, BB
• Brandon Forrester, 3B: 2-for-3, R, BB, SB

• Alejandro Torres, RHP: 2.0 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• Andrew Marrero, RHP: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
• Railin Perez, RHP: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Amilcar Chirinos, RHP: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• Colby Langford, LHP: 1.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K

A+: Asheville Tourists (43-86) won 10-6 (BOX SCORE)

Asheville got on the board in the first inning on a Powell 3 run home run. They got another run in the third on a Moss groundout. Oakes got the start and went 5 innings allowing 3 runs while striking out 5. In the 5th, Powell connected on another home run, this time a 2 run shot. After a Neyens RBI double in the 6th, the offense got 3 more runs in the 7th on Garcia 3 run home run. The pen allows a few runs but held on for the 10-6 win.

Note: Powell has a .823 OPS this season.

• Anthony Huezo, LF: 1-for-4, R, BB, SB
• Xavier Neyens, 3B: 2-for-4, 2 R, 2 2B, RBI, BB
• Caden Powell, CF: 3-for-5, 3 R, 2 HR, 5 RBI
• Jack Moss, 1B: 1-for-4, R
• Kyle Walker, 2B: 3-for-4, 2 2B
• Zach Daudet, SS: 1-for-3, R, 2B, BB
• John Garcia, C: 1-for-3, R, HR, 3 RBI, BB, SB
• DJ Newman, RF: 2-for-4, R, 2 SB

• Kellan Oakes, RHP: 5.0 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
• Francisco Frias, RHP: 2.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
• Max Martin, RHP: 1.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (71-57) lost 3-2 (BOX SCORE)

Beck started for the Woodpeckers and tossed a scoreless first inning but he was pulled after the first. He was released by Carrera who pitched well allowing 1 run over 6 innings of work. The Woodpeckers got on the board in the 5th inning on a Sierra RBI double. Rosario tossed 2 scoreless innings as the game went to extra innings. In the 10th, the Woodpeckers picked up a run on a Nowak bases loaded walk.  The Crawdads tied it up in the 10th. The game went to 12 innings and in the bottom of the 12th, Hickory walked it off on an error.

Note: Beck has a 2.80 ERA this season.

• Owen Nowak, CF: 1-for-3, 2 BB, SB
• Aaron Piasecki, 2B: 1-for-4, BB
• German Ramirez, SS: 1-for-5, R
• Juan Sierra, RF: 1-for-3, 2B, RBI, BB

• Jagger Beck, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Jesus Carrera, RHP: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
• Leomar Rosario, RHP: 2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
• Mick Uebelhor, RHP: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
• Taz Butler, RHP: 0.1 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Bryce Mayer – 7:05 CT

CC: Nolan DeVos – 7:05 CT

AV: Parker Smith – 5:05 CT

FV: TBD – 6:00 CT

There are several forgotten heroes from Yankees’ baseball prior to when the franchise started to win championships. Not that they didn’t have good years as a team in that time, but the pre-Babe Ruth years tend to blend together in a lot of fans’ minds.

One of those forgotten heroes was Al Orth, whose 1906 could be in the discussion for best seasons by a Yankee pitcher.

Albert Lewis “Al” Orth
Born: September 5, 1872 (Sedalia, MO)
Died: October 8, 1948 (Lynchburg, VA)
Yankees Tenure: 1904-09

While he was born in Missouri, Al Orth lived much of his early life in Indiana. There’s not a ton out there about his early life other than that he eventually attended DePauw University in Greencastle, IN. At some point, he developed an ability for baseball and begins showing up in on minor league rosters at 22-years-old, playing for the Lynchburg Hill Climbers in 1895.

In Lynchburg, Orth very quickly began to catch the eye of major league teams. After 269 good innings in 1895, Lynchburg sold him to the Phillies later that season. He went on to debut and throw 88 more innings in Philly that year, and put up a very solid, for that year, 3.89 ERA.

Over the next several years, while he had his ups and down, Orth became a fixture on the Phillies’ roster, and a mostly solid one at that. Known as the “Curveless Wonder,” Orth got his success from just varying the speed of his pitches as opposed to getting great movement. With the exceptions of 1895-96 — when he was still breaking into the bigs — and 1899, Orth threw at least 250 innings every season in Philadelphia and also posted at least 14 wins in all except his debut 1895. However, the Phillies never really got all that close to a NL pennant in his time there.

Orth had his best year as a Phillie in 1901. That year, he went 20-12 with a 2.27 ERA (151 ERA+), and recorded a league high six complete game shutouts. However, something else also happened in 1901: the American League was founded. Many NL mainstays started making the jump over, and Orth did so too, joining the Washington Senators for a reported $3500.

Despite moving to the still developing league from the “Senior Circuit,” Orth struggled in Washington. In 84 appearances over three seasons with the Senators, ho posted a 4.21 ERA, which equated to a 79 ERA+, as baseball began to enter the “deadball era.” He dropped off even further in 1904, leading to a July trade that sent him to the New York Highlanders.

The move to the Highlanders led to a rejuvenation for Orth. He was much better over the rest of 1904 — helping New York nearly swipe the AL pennant — and was again solid in 1905. Then in 1906, he put together his best career season. In New York, Orth joined a pitching staff that featured “spitballer” Jack Chesbro. With help from Chesbro, Orth began to throw the spitball himself, leading to a standout 1906. In a league-leading 338.2 innings, Orth put up a 2.34 ERA (127 ERA+), with 27 wins. According to modern stats, Orth was worth 8.1 rWAR and 6.0 fWAR, putting him among the league’s best that season.

Orth was okay the next year, but the Highlanders fell way back in the standings, and Orth ended up leading the league in losses. It was the first time ever a pitcher went from having the most wins to the most losses in consecutive years. After an even worse year in 1908, Orth seemingly left the majors, moved to Virginia and was set to be a player-manager in the Virginia League.

However, new Highlanders’ manager George Stallings lured Orth back for 1909. He only threw three innings on the mound and instead filled a new role. Orth had always been a pretty solid hitter, and not even for just pitcher standards, with a career 92 OPS+. Stallings used Orth as a pinch-hitter and in a handful of games at second base, and he put up a 113 OPS+ for the year.

Following that season, Orth did leave the majors and played for a couple minor league teams, including back in his new home in Lynchburg. He then returned to the majors in 1912, albeit as an umpire. He was the home plate ump for a 1912 game where pitchers Hippo Vaughn and Fred Toney both had no-hitters through nine innings. Toney completed his in 10 innings, after his Reds’ teammates scored a run on two hits in the top of the 10th.

Orth was a NL ump through 1917, at which point he left that role. Back in Virginia, he had stints as the baseball coaches at Washington & Lee University and the Virginia Military Institute. He resided in the area until his death in 1948 at age 76.

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers come into tonight’s game as big 68% moneyline favorites against the Washington Nationals in what should be a pitcher’s duel between Tyler Glasnow and Cade Cavalli.

I’ll break down why I’m picking the hosts to win a low-scoring game in my Nationals vs. Dodgers predictions and free MLB picks for Saturday, Sept. 5.

Who will win Nationals vs Dodgers today: Dodgers moneyline (68%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The Los Angeles Dodgers will be without Shohei Ohtani tonight, but they’ve still got an elite offense. And they won’t need to give Tyler Glasnow much run support, anyway.

Glasnow ranks in the 97th percentile in both xERA (2.44) and xBA (.183), as well as the 83rd percentile in overall pitching run value.

The Washington Nationals have been the second-best offensive team in baseball this season (5.16 runs per game). However, they’ve averaged just 3.80 runs per game since Aug. 14, scoring two or fewer in 10 of their last 20.

I don’t love the Dodgers' tax here, but we’re pigeonholed with L.A. only covering the run line in 13 of its last 50 contests.

Back the Dodgers to 69%.

COVERS INTEL: Since Aug. 14, the Nationals rank 28th in wOBA (.290), a big drop-off compared to their full-season number (.328, third).

Nationals vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (57%)

Cade Cavalli has been impressive for the Nationals, especially down the stretch, sporting a 1.75 ERA over his last six starts while allowing two earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 appearances.

The Dodgers obviously have an elite offense, but they’ll miss Ohtani, who leads all L.A. starting players in SLG and OPS vs. right-handed pitching.

Washington has cashed the Under in 29 of its last 50 games, while Los Angeles has hit the Under in eight of its last 11.

Play to 58%.

Nationals vs Dodgers home run prediction: Freddie Freeman (17%)

Freddie Freeman isn’t the 30+ home run hitter he once was, but he’s still got a respectable 16 dingers this season. He broke a near two-month home run drought on Wednesday, and I like his chances to go yard again tonight.

Freeman has been particularly dangerous against the four-seamer from righties, batting a ridiculous .355 with a .554 SLG. Six of his homers have come against that pitch type, and it’s also Cavalli’s most common offering (32.9%). 

Nationals vs Dodgers weather

Weather shouldn’t be a major factor tonight at Dodger Stadium, where they’re expecting temperatures in the 70s and very light winds blowing out to right field.

Nationals vs Dodgers odds

• Moneyline: Nationals 33% | Dodgers 68%
• Run line: Nationals +1.5 | Dodgers -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Nationals vs Dodgers trend

The Nationals have hit the team total Under in 10 of their last 14 away games (+5.45 Units / 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Nationals vs Dodgers and game info

Nationals vs Dodgers latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Throughout his first full season in the big leagues, we have learned that Cade Cavalli loves a challenge. Whenever he squares off with the marquee teams in the league, Cavalli tends to have his best stuff. He will have an opportunity to do that again tonight against the Dodgers.

Cavalli will be facing off with Tyler Glasnow tonight in what should be a very exciting matchup. It feels like Cavalli is starting to get those big matchups on a regular basis now that he is emerging as the Nats ace. The last time he was on the mound, he was opposed by Sandy Alcantara. Now, he will see another one of the NL’s premier arms.

He is in these ace matchups for a reason. That is exactly what Cavalli has been over the past couple months. In his last 13 starts, Cavalli has a 2.15 ERA with elite underlying numbers. He had a streak of 10 straight quality starts that was only ended due to taking a comebacker off his leg last time out.

Cavalli’s season numbers as a whole are very impressive too. In 152.2 innings, he has a 3.12 ERA and 177 strikeouts. A 170 inning, 200 strikeout season is within reach for Cavalli. A couple years ago, that seemed like a long shot. His Tommy John recovery was bumpy to say the least. He was off the mound for most of two seasons. Even at the beginning of last year, the results were not there in AAA.

However, he got things going again at the end of last year. With the addition of a power sweeper and improved command, he has taken another leap this season. Cavalli is now one of the pillars of the organization. His competitive fire is one of his trademark traits as well.

When the lights are brightest, that is when we see the best of Cavalli. The Cubs have been the best offense in the league this season, but they were no match for Cavalli. That start against the Cubs was the best one of his career. He flirted with a no-hitter and had everything working against an elite offense.

For these big games, it feels like Cavalli always has a little something extra. The fastball velocity is up a tick, the breaking balls are sharper and his intensity is higher. Cavalli is always intense on the mound, but he takes things to another level in these games.

That Red Sox start is a perfect example of this. He may have gone too far in that start, but he did dominate a red hot offense. Cavalli got an insane 25 whiffs in that start. His fastball was up to 100 and his breakers were out of this world. That is the sort of stuff you see from Cade in a big game.

I can’t wait to see what Cavalli looks like when we are finally a playoff team someday. It would be an environment he would thrive in. The closest thing the Nats have to the playoffs are these matchups with elite teams. Those are the games where Cavalli is at his best.

This Dodgers lineup is a tough nut to crack. However, I have confidence that Cavalli will go out there and pitch well. It may be a late game, but I am really excited to see Cade matchup with the best team in the league. Expect to see a lot of 98’s and 99’s on the gun.

We know that Cavalli will be amped up for this matchup. The only question is whether he will get enough run support. This offense has looked lackluster lately. However, they usually come to play for Cade. There should be fireworks and a lot of strikeouts in LA tonight because big game Cade is suiting up.

Six innings, no runs.

By most standards, that would be a start worth celebrating.

Blake Snell called it a “good starting point.”

“I think I can be way better,” Snell said.

The more Snell talked about his start in the Dodgers’ 5-3 victory over the Nationals, the more dissatisfied he sounded. He wasn’t where he wanted to be.

He isn’t alone.

The starters who will comprise the Dodgers’ postseason rotation know that when the playoffs start, they will have to pitch better than they have. Their team’s inconsistent offense will once again give them little margin for error, perhaps even less than last year with Shohei Ohtani dealing with multiple injuries.

If October marks the start of the baseball season in Los Angeles, September is spring training. The pitchers have three weeks to prepare for the starts that will define their seasons, or perhaps even careers. Up next will be Tyler Glasnow, who pitches Saturday in only his third start since returning from a 3 ½-month absence that was forced on him by back spasms.

The night before Snell beat the Nationals, Tarik Skubal was flabbergasted by his stat line in his start against the Cardinals: 5 ⅓ innings, two runs, 10 hits, all of them singles.

“I mean, 10 singles,” said Skubal, taking solace in how he didn’t give up any extra-base hits. 

Skubal said he threw the ball well, pointing to how pitches that missed by a couple of inches to either side radically transformed certain at-bats.

“In my eyes,” Skubal said, “that’s executing a pitch.”

Which isn’t to say Skubal viewed himself entirely as a victim of dumb luck.

“I’ve gotta continue to make pitches and continue to suppress contact and try and get misses when I can,” he said.

The start was the sixth for Skubal since his trade from the Tigers. He has pitched more than six innings only once for the Dodgers, with whom he is 1-2 with a 3.03 ERA.

“I know we haven’t seen the best of him yet,” manager Dave Roberts said.

The Dodgers saw the best of Yoshinobu Yamamoto on Wednesday — for five innings.

Facing the Cardinals, Yamamoto had a no-hitter through five innings that was broken up in the sixth on a leadoff single by José Fermín. Two batters later, Yamamoto gave up a home run to Thomas Saggese. 

In the next inning, Yamamoto gave up a leadoff double to Jordan Walker, which was followed by a home run by Leo Bernal.

“When I went into the stretch, my control was really bad,” Yamamoto said in Japanese.

He departed the game with a 5-4 lead, which the bullpen failed to protect. The Dodgers lost the game in extra innings.

Yamamoto was frustrated, as he thought it was inexcusable to lose a game in which the Dodgers’ slumping offense scored five runs.

“They scored for me, and it was a game we could have won if I’d held the other team,” Yamamoto said.

Yamamoto has made 25 starts, and his numbers are better than they were last year at the same stage, as he has a 2.67 ERA in 165 innings. Through his first 25 starts last year, he had a 2.90 ERA in 139 ⅔ innings.

Yamamoto’s personal trainer, Osamu Yada, said Yamamoto should start hitting his stride in the second half of the month, which should position him to perform as well, if not better, in the playoffs than he did last year when he was the Most Valuable Player of the World Series.

As for Snell, he said he had to be more efficient.

His six-inning effort was an inning longer than his previous start, but he continued to call on himself to pitch deeper into the game.

“Going six is cool, and it’s a good starting point,” Snell said. “I really want to go seven, eight. I want to get to nine.”

Snell, who pitched for only the fifth time since he returned from an early-season elbow operation, threw 100 pitches.

“I just can’t be walking guys that I know I can get out. Just gotta get ahead, quit trying to be so perfect and just attack it.”

That’s what Snell did when he pitched seven shutout innings against the Reds in Game 1 of the wild-card series last year. That’s what he did when he blanked the Brewers over eight innings in the opening game of the National League Championship Series.

Snell knows where he wants to be when the playoffs open. He has three more regular-season starts to get there.

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Toronto is back to .500 and can smell a playoff spot; we're riding with Max Scherzer today as part of our Royals vs. Blue Jays prediction.

The Toronto Blue Jays come into Kansas City as -110 favorites against the Royals, and should be able to have their way with Seth Lugo at Kauffman Stadium (7:10 pm ET).

Let’s dive into my MLB picks for Saturday, Sept. 5.

Blue Jays vs Royals predictions

Blue Jays vs Royals best bet: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (-110)

The Toronto Blue Jays are winners of five of their last six, with the offense continuing to roll, scoring 26 runs across their last three games.

There's not much in the way of stopping them from continuing that trend today, as Kansas City Royals starter Seth Lugo has struggled mightily this season, owning the highest xBA (.280) and xERA (5.16) of his career. 

Don't be surprised if the Blue Jays end up putting up close to nine runs in back-to-back nights.

I'd play this up to -120.

COVERS INTEL:Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino are a combined 3-for-16 against Max Scherzer in their career, giving me plenty of confidence he'll be able to shut down the Royals' bats - they are the second-worst team hitting with RISP in the big leagues.

Blue Jays vs Royals same-game parlay (SGP)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is finding his stroke at the plate at the perfect time for the Blue Jays, logging five hits over his last three games, and while Ernie Clement has had a subpar second half of the season, he did register two hits just yesterday. Against a contact pitcher like Lugo, I'm expecting a ton of balls in play tonight.

Blue Jays vs Royals SGP

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2+ bases
• Ernie Clement 2+ H/R/RBI
• Blue Jays moneyline

Blue Jays vs Royals home run pick: George Springer (+405)

George Springer has been making some loud contact lately, and should be able to get the barrel on Lugo, who won't overpower anyone. Springer has been extremely hot post-All-Star break, rocking a .856 OPS — let's see him connect with one tonight.

Blue Jays vs Royals odds

• Moneyline: Toronto -110 | Kansas City -110
• Run line: Toronto -1.5 (+145) | Kansas City +1.5 (-170)
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-110) | Under 9.5 (-110)

Blue Jays vs Royals trend

The Over is 6-0-2 in the Royals' last eight games as a home underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Royals.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Royals and game info

Blue Jays vs Royals latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Royals weather

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This was not a vintage 2026 Cubs win, though another win by five runs is plenty acceptable. This one didn’t get out of hand and there wasn’t a lot of offensive heroics. Largely, the offense had one very good inning and the team rode that and really strong pitching to a second straight win. The pitching staff isn’t usually where the team finds its sweet spot. But that’s exactly where it has been the last couple of nights. To be clear, we aren’t out looking for style points right now. The Phillies got hot right when the Cubs got cold. The top Wild Card spot very much looks like a fight to the finish now.

This was two straight where the driving force was the pitching staff. Things had been rough for the pitchers lately, so these two days have to be a big morale boost. As much as the guys in this locker room would tell you that they were still comfortable and confident, everyone is aware that the position players have been carrying this team. It’s really great that in their hour of need the pitchers stepped forward. Shōta Imanaga is a welcome, if a little surprising, player to step forward and get another win for this team. Imanaga gave them one run over six, allowing only three hits. Aaron Civale locked it down for his second save (both of the three inning variety). Civale has allowed four earned runs in 26.1 innings. That’s a 1.37 ERA. Cherry picked situation or not, he has answered the bell for this team.

Offensively, there wasn’t any one performance that jumps off of the page. Nico Hoerner had a three-hit game. Michael Busch had the team’s one homer. Pedro Ramirez was the only hitter to drive in two. It was a balanced attack. Six Cubs had hits. Five Cubs drew at least one walk, including Michael Conforto with two of them. It’s good to see so many chipping in. There are days for Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman to shoulder all of the load. They can’t do it every day. And this team needs wins right now. I’m just going to keep saying it.

I wrote one day last week about how consistent this team has been if you pull back. Yeah, peaks and valleys. They happen to every team. If you get angry with Ian Happ constantly, this paragraph definitely isn’t for you. But when you drown out the noise, this is a 92ish win team. It’s been that way for a long time. That’s nothing to be ashamed of. If you want to be frustrated for what they might have been, that’s fine. I get it. It’s a fair thought.

I think back to one day a few months ago. I wrote about how unfortunate it is that this team got so swamped by pitching injuries. Some of my most loyal readers/commenters politely pointed out that it’s not like the injuries came out of nowhere. They stacked a ton of guys with lengthy injury history. I didn’t counter then, but I will now. That doesn’t mean that so many of them had to have worst case or near worst case scenarios. The points are fair and that’s why I didn’t push then. Obviously, those of you who pushed (and those who thought it) were right. This was clearly in the range of outcomes. But I have to believe there were possibilities in the range that would have had at least one or two of their real horses stay healthy and effective.

Still, this last five days has shown again, this team is in the fight. I don’t think any of us ever really, really bought in to this team. We all see the limitations. But these last five days, three really good starts. Two games that could have gone their way of they got any pitching. It kind of lays it all out there. The pieces are there. They aren’t the best pieces that will be on the field. I think the Brewers feel really confident against the Cubs and they should. But I don’t think anyone is super excited to play the Cubs though.

I’ll take it. In the fight. Not totally a lost cause.

Three Positives:

• Shōta Imanaga. I covered it in my look ahead. This Marlins team is not inept offensively. One run over six is good.
• In that same vein, I’m going with Aaron Civale for three scoreless innings to finish it out. Yes, it was low leverage, but he kept the entire bullpen fresh. The Cubs have now used three relievers over the last two games. Just past the halfway point of 13 straight games and you’re going to have guys that need to get in a game to stay fresh. Good problem to have.
• Nico gets my third nod. Three hits. One of them drove in a run. I’ve been a bit frustrated with him in the middle of the order. He has no pop really. So it’s good to see him have this kind of game.
• Plus Pete. PCA with a double, a walk, a stolen base and two runs scored. And a pretty excellent catch in center as well. Just continuing one of the best baseball seasons we’ll ever have the privilege of seeing.

Game 142, September 4: Cubs 6, Marlins 1 (80-62)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Shōta Imanaga (.314). 6 IP. 21 BF, 3 H, 0 BB, R, 4 K (W 9-10)
• Hero: Nico Hoerner (.108). 3-4, RBI
• Sidekick: Ian Happ (.100). 1-4, BB, RBI, R

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.074). 0-5
• Goat: Carson Kelly (-.070). 0-4
• Kid: Michael Busch (-.009). 1-4, HR, BB, RBI, 2 R

WPA Play of the Game: Ian Happ’s bases loaded walk in the sixth inning increased the lead to two with one out. (.088)

Marlins Play of the Game: Deyvison De Los Santos doubled leading off the third with the Marlins down one. (.073)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 141 Winner: Kevin Gausman received 85 of 104 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Alex Bregman +27
• Pete Crow-Armstrong +25.5
• Ben Brown +13.5
• Javier Assad +12
• Shōta Imanaga +11
• Nico Hoerner -13
• Jameson Taillon -13
• Seiya Suzuki -15
• Dansby Swanson -17
• Caleb Thielbar -17.5

Scoreboard Watching: Brewers won (+8 on Cubs). Braves won (+4.5). Phillies lost (-.0.5, Cubs own tiebreaker). Diamondbacks lost (-6). Padres lost (-5.5). Dodgers won (+4.5). A good day for the Cubs getting into the playoffs chances.

Up Next: Game two of the weekend three-game series is this afternoon in Miami. The Cubs will look for a third straight win and a series win. After that long stretch of series wins on the road, the Cubs have now lost their last two. The Cubs are 4-4 in this stretch of 13 games in 13 days.

The Cubs will slide Javier Assad into their weekend rotation allowing Clay Holmes an extra day of rest. Assad is 6-1 with a 3.46 ERA. He’s had a chance to stretch back out a bit for Iowa after working out of the pen for a while. He’s also got a rested bullpen ready to go behind him and an offense that is probably just about due to score 10 plus again one of these days. Ryan Gusto starts for the Marlins. He’s 1-3 with a 3.86 ERA. He doesn’t work particularly deep into games, but he’s allowed one earned run in 14 innings of work over his last three appearances. He hasn’t had a real dud since a bad outing against the Phillies on July 29 when he allowed six over five innings.

Find a way. Win another game.

Amidst the chaos of the final two innings Friday night, which included a man trying to fire up his own (sparse) crowd after their team hit into an inning-ending double play, and bullpens politely filing out of the same door to join a mini-fracas, something else quietly happened. Aroldis Chapman picked up his 399th career save in a 1-2-3 inning on 11 pitches, something that he has done time and time again over the past two years and is easy to take for granted.

When he tallies the next one, Chapman will become the ninth pitcher in MLB history to get to 400 saves. If he pitches two more seasons, he would likely move into the top five all-time, where Craig Kimbrel sits at 441. Incredibly, the only two pitchers who have gotten to 500 saves are also both over 600 saves (Rivera 652, Hoffman 601).

Chapman now has 32 saves in each of his two seasons in Boston, with only two blown saves in each all-star season. Over 2025-2026 combined, Chapman has a 1.57 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 12.2 K/9, and just a 2.9 BB/9 (after walking 6 batters per nine in the four prior seasons combined).

Chapman recently had his 2027 option vest with the Red Sox, for $13 million, provided that he passes his year-end physical heading into his 39-year-old season. He’ll soon move into the top ten in career Red Sox saves.

The only real glaring omission from this list is Keith Foulke, who tallied 47 saves in Boston, but also had three fairly important saves in the 2004 postseason. Foulke, Papelbon, Uehara, and Kimbrel all had World Series rings with the team. Bob Stanley just missed. Those who saw Dick Radatz pitch probably would have something to say about his case too.

Where would you place Chapman on the all-time Red Sox closer list today? If he has another dominant season (or two) with the team, how high could he rise on that list? Discuss in the comments, and be good to each other.