Category: MLB

We took a little mini break from bases per out, but we were always going to come back. This is really about two suppositions. First, the Astros current pitching staff is MLB average. We saw that in the last lab that we ran on Wednesday. Yes, Josh Hader is due back next week. Hunter Brown is due back in a couple of weeks. Still, this is not the kind of pitching staff the team had in 2018, 2019, or 2022. That brings us to the second supposition. The Astros offense is also currently average.

The good news is that the team finds themselves three games out of first place as of this writing. There have been a few instances in history where teams have won their division with fewer than 85 wins. When I reviewed the math problem with everyone it was based on the assumption that 85 wins would be needed to get into the playoffs. It is fair at this point to question whether that actually is true. If it takes only 82 or 83 wins then the math changes and things become much more possible.

Yordan Alvarez and Christian Walker have been spectacular this season. Yet, when you look at the rest of the current unit, no other regular has an OPS higher than Christian Vazquez at .725 and he will likely see that go down if expected numbers are correct. Players like Jeremy Pena are expected to improve and certainly that should be the case, but this offense is a little top heavy and that is clear in the outfield. If we consider Yordan Alvarez as a designated hitter only then there are seven guys that have gotten considerable time that likely will factor into the current or future plans of the organization.

As a reminder, bases per out are calculated by adding total bases, walks, stolen bases, and hit by pitches and dividing it by the total number of outs a player accrues. The current MLB average is .663. It goes without saying, but you want the players with the most outs to be the players that accrue the most damage per out. However, I am sure you will notice something immediately when looking at the outfielders. They will be listed in order of outs.

You’ve undoubtedly noticed that Trammel is the only outfielder over the league average and he has the least number of outs. Obviously, that is due to his untimely injury in Cleveland and he has been back in the lineup since returning from the injured list. Cole was mercifully sent down and Loperfido is on a rehab assignment, so he should be back next week as well. So, who amongst these guys will he replace?

Admittedly, holding a spot is not only a function of offensive production. The Astros have to consider things like positional flexibility, options, and defensive output. The same is true for when deciding who gets to start and where. Based on those points alone, Dezenzo would seem to be the most likely player out because of a lack of positional flexibility and defensive ability.

Certainly, this current road trip has changed a lot of minds over what is possible down the stretch. I am certainly in that group, but it is more about what other teams are not doing than what the Astros have actually done. Given that, the job for Joe Espada is to manage with razor thin margins and get as much blood out of that rock as possible. Many of you are screaming about the fielding side and it is definitely a factor. So, below we see the defensive innings along with the defensive runs saved (DRS), outs above average (OAA), and fielding run value (FRV). All three are popular fielding metrics that usually say the same thing, but occasionally disagree because they all have their own methods and assumptions.

To give everyone some context, Smith is likely to be a finalist again for the Gold Glove in right field if he continues on this pace. Unlike last season, he may actually take it home this time. That obviously complicates a decision as to whether he should get regular starts in right field. When you add in the fact that he is probably the second best outfielder offensively behind Loperfido (Trammel likely comes back to Earth) then it seems pretty clear that he has right field held down.

This is why competing matters. If you are in the business of winning games then you put the best three guys out there. If you are in the business of development then you consider the best interests of the player. Smith likely should have been in the minors last season and maybe this season as well. It still might have been best for his overall development. Yet, if you are in the business of winning games then you need him out there.

Loperfido and Trammel seem like a nice platoon in left of sorts. In this case, it isn’t so much which side of the plate they hit from (left) as riding the hot hand in the moment. Trammel is not likely to be an average MLB performer over a full season. He certainly looks the part now, so you might as well ride that bull until it bucks you. Over a longer timeline, Loperfido has a slightly higher upside.

That leaves centerfield. Matthews has made that more compelling through his defense. Is Jake Meyers likely to live at a .531 BPO? He has a career .613 BPO. It seems reasonable to expect him to get back to the neighborhood of a .600 BPO at the very least. That certainly begs the question: is Brice Matthews likely to elevate himself to that? Obviously, what 2027 or 2028 might look like is anyone’s best guess, but the simple answer to that question in 2026 is likely no.

When Jose Altuve comes back it becomes a question of whether you want to option Matthews, Braden Shewmake, or Nick Allen. We haven’t looked at their numbers yet, but suffice it to say that both are performing better than Matthews. Remember, this is about squeezing as much offense as possible out of players that are not quite league average. If you have enough luck and win enough close games then you can find yourself right back in the hunt. These are razor thin margins we are talking about here, so the Astros must exploit every positive difference they can.

When it was happening, the San Diego Padres and their fans knew the walk-off wins and seventh inning surges would not propel them through the season — but it was fun. The most recent homestand saw the Padres finish with a 3-6 record over nine games at Petco Park and was hardly the result anyone expected but was not totally shocking either.

There were concerns about the San Diego rotation coming into the season, but no one predicted the offense would be this bad. For the majority of the season, the big three of Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill have struggled to provide any significant contributions at the plate. Machado has a slash line of .169/.265/.339 with nine home runs, 27 RBI and 27 runs scored. Tatis has a slash line of .260/.339/.300 with no home runs, 16 RBI and 19 runs scored, and Merrill has a slash line of .200/.271/.318 with four home runs, 19 RBI and 24 runs scored.

The trio of San Diego’s stars combined are eight home runs shy of the MLB leader, Kyle Schwarber. In fact, with all three combined, they would not rank in the top 10 in long balls this season. It was said about the spending under former owner Peter Seidler and it was said this season about the late-inning heroics to win games, this is not sustainable. Somehow the Padres remain seven games above .500, but San Diego is currently on a four-game skid and that seven can get to zero in a hurry unless something changes.

Padres News:

• Trade season is drawing near and already rumors about the Padres have surfaced. San Diego, according to reports, is considering adding to its elite bullpen and perhaps to the starting rotation. Thomas Conroy of Gaslamp Ball tries to shed some light on why some moves could and/or should happen.

• Jackson Merrill has been one of the more disappointing players in the San Diego lineup, but he is working to change that. With two hits against Philadelphia Phillies ace Christopher Sanchez, he may be nearing a return to form.

• MLB and the MLBPA have traded proposals and have begun negotiating toward a new CBA that will prevent a lockout that will affect the 2027 season and beyond.

• Ryan Wideman stole two bases for Lake Elsinore and has pushed his season total to 35.

Baeball News:

• Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes recorded 10 strikeouts and allowed one earned run, but the Chicago Cubs won the game, 7-2.

• Chris Sale reminded the Red Sox what they lost when he left Boston as the Atlanta Braves cruised to a 10-2 win.

• Andres Gimenez homered and helped the Toronto Blue Jays beat the Baltimore Orioles, 2-1.

• The Chicago White Sox beat the Minnesota Twins and secured their first winning month since 2023.

• Grayson Rodriguez and the Los Angeles Angels beat the Detroit Tigers, 7-1 in Detroit.

Astros 5, Rangers 1

• Guys, I’m getting worried about the Rangers’ chances of winning the Silver Boot this year.
• Also, it appears that the addition of Nicky Lopez to the lineup hasn’t catalyzed the offense.
• The last seven days have been demoralizing, as a Rangers fan. An opportunity to make a push and take control of the American League West has turned instead into a downward spiral.
• This game, for example?
• Very unpleasant.
• Nathan Eovaldi giving up three runs in the first inning, part of the team’s ongoing inability to keep teams off the board in the first inning.
• Rangers’ opponents have now scored 45 runs in the first inning this season. 31 runs have been allowed in the fifth inning. They haven’t allowed more than 23 runs in any other inning.
• The entire rotation has been stricken with Dane Dunning disease.
• Maybe Texas just needs to start using an opener in every game.
• It wouldn’t solve the problem with the offense, however.
• The Rangers recorded a whopping four hits in the game. Two by Josh Jung and two by Ezequiel Duran.
• Incidentally, as part of the “the Shed has been de-nerfed” monitoring, Jung’s homer went 424 feet, as did Jeremy Pena’s. Those both are among the 10 balls in play that have traveled the farthest at the Shed this season. Eight of the top 10 on the list have come in the past three games.
• The evidence continues to mount.
• As do the losses.
• Nathan Eovaldi hit 95.7 mph with his fastball, averaging 94.1 mph. Cal Quantrill’s sinker topped out at 94.4 mph.
• Jake Burger had a 106.1 mph ground out. Josh Jung’s homer was 103.6 mph off the bat. Ezequiel Duran had a 103.6 mph single.
• The Royals now come to town. Maybe the Rangers can avoid being swept by Kansas City.

Good morning, LSB.

The Rangers lost to the Astros last night, 5-1.

Shawn McFarland’s game story discusses the hole that Texas’ starting pitching has been digging in the early going of games.

Kennedi Landry evaluates what’s gone wrong with the Rangers’ season one-third of the way into it.

Skip Schumaker missed the game while attending his son’s high school graduation.

Josh Smith is back with the team after a bout viral meningitis.

Cody Freeman has been activated from the IL and optioned to Round Rock.

Evan Grant answered the questions of exasperated Rangers fans in a live Q&A on Youtube.

And finally there’s a strong chance we look back at tonight’s Nolan Ryan bloody jersey giveaway as the greatest thing the 2026 Texas Rangers offered us.

That’s all for this morning. The Rangers start up a series with the Royals tonight at 7:05 with MacKenzie Gore on the mound for Texas.

Happy Friday!

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With an intriguing matchup on the mound, I'm expecting a low-scoring first inning between the New York Mets and Miami Marlins in their series opener.

That game headlines my favorite MLB picks today for the "no run first inning" and "yes run first inning" markets.

Here are my best NRFI predictions and YRFI picks for Friday, May 29.

Best NRFI/YRFI predictions today

Pick	Odds
/ - NRFI	-145
/ - NRFI	-120
/ - NRFI	-130

Marlins at Mets: NRFI (-145)

A pair of studs take the hill tonight between the Miami Marlins and New York Mets.

Max Meyer gets the ball for the visitors, and he's collected a 2.52 ERA this season. The right-hander has a 9-2 NRFI/YRFI record as well, and he's held the Mets to a .094 average across 32 at-bats.

They failed to score off him in the first last Sunday. 

Freddy Peralta counters for New York, and he hasn't allowed a run in the first inning in 10 straight appearances, and he's up against a Marlins lineup that doesn't often score in the first.

They're also batting just .239 in the opening frame, and he held them scoreless in the first last week. 

I'd play this up to -160. 

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marlins.TV, WPIX-11

Cubs at Cardinals: NRFI (-120)

Shota Imanaga takes the hill for the Chicago Cubs tonight, and while he's struggled at times this season, the left-hander rarely gets in trouble in the first. 

He owns a 8-3 NRFI/YRFI record, and he hasn't given up a run in the first in five straight. The St. Louis Cardinals haven't scored in the opening frame in nine games and counting.

The hosts will hand Kyle Leahy the ball, and he's also been lights out in the first, with a 9-1 NRFI/YRFI record.

The Cubbies are hitting only .222 in the first inning, and they've scored just 10 times in the opening frame in 2026. 

This is a play I'd take up to -150. 

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MARQ, Cardinals.TV

Royals at Rangers: NRFI (-130)

The Kansas City Royals and Texas Rangers are both struggling to score runs right now, and the pitching matchup here will make it difficult to get things going early on.

Stephen Kolek has a 2.77 ERA, and he hasn't allowed a run in the first once this year across four starts. 

MacKenzie Gore has an ERA over 4.00, but he's usually came out unscathed in the opening frame, posting a 8-3 NRFI/YRFI record in '26.

The Royals' offense hasn't came across the dish in the first in four straight, while Texas has been held scoreless in the first in four of their previous six games. 

I'll confidently ride this pick up to -140. 

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Royals.TV, KDAF-CW33

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The start of the MLB season hasn't been kind to the San Francisco Giants and their first baseman, Rafael Devers.

The Giants have a 22-34 record through one-third of the season. Devers, their 2025 splash acquisition from the Boston Red Sox, has had a rather forgetful start to the 2026 season. He's on pace for one of his worst seasons in MLB, since his professional debut in 2017.

Devers is batting .242 with just seven homers in 215 at-bats through 56 games. This season he has struck out 69 times, which is ranked within the top 15 in baseball. His grand slam Sunday in the Giants' 8-5 win against the Chicago White Sox brought a sigh of relief after a sluggish start.

He followed it with a 1-for-3 performance, adding two RBIs in the first game of a three-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks, a 6-2 loss on Monday, May 25. He remained in rhythm the following games batting 1-for-4 and adding an RBI despite the Giants losing, 7-5.

He cooled off in the final game of the series against Arizona. Devers was 0-of-4 as San Francisco was swept in the series after a 3-2 loss on May 27.

One of the more pressing issues for the Giants is what's going on with Devers and what to do with him at this point in his tenure. As talented as Devers is, the Giants' record indicates that something has got to change, and you start with Devers. The Giants need to determine whether they will continue to believe in Devers and allow him to shake the funk, or if they will bench him, or let him go altogether.

More of a silly one today than anything else.

Mike Yastrzemski started off… poorly… with his new team. He had a 71 wRC+ through April 15; it dipped to 60 by the time April ended. On May 9, he was down to 46. And then, some stuff happened. He hit two homers, amid six total hits, over his next six games, only four of which were starts. Then, a few days later, he had a huge, 3-for-3 with a homer and a double game against the Marlins. His wRC+ wasn’t fully recovered, but it was up to 91 for the season.

That was about a week ago. Since then, the Braves have faced a bunch of lefties. Since then, Yastrzemski has had all of six PAs. Two series, six games, only four games in which he even appeared, one (bases-loaded, go-ahead) walk, one hit. He’s up to a 93 wRC+.

But, what has he been doing with his free time, since the universe has conspired to make sure the Braves face seemingly every lefty pitcher in existence?

Note: yes, this post has mentioned Yastrzemski’s outputs and their upswing, but his inputs have been sadder. On the season, he is outhitting his xwOBA by over .020, which is not inspiring given that his xwOBA is so low. His xwOBA was .259 through the May 9 nadir mentioned above. He then posted a great .377 xwOBA in his charged-up ten game stretch.

Back in February, Jordan Westburg got a double-whammy of bad news: after suffering an oblique strain, he started feeling elbow discomfort, only to learn he’d partly torn his UCL—a bad injury, under any circumstances. Most people figured that Jordan Westburg was gone for this calendar year (this even before it was announced in May that he’d have season-ending elbow surgery), and someone had to step into the void at third base.

The obvious candidate to replace him: 24-year-old Coby Mayo, a power hitter who rose through the farm system as an infielder, though he’d lately switched to first base. A career .905 OPS hitter in the Minors, Mayo had the bat to fill the gap left by Westburg, a point his Grapefruit League performance made emphatically: Mayo hit .389 with a 1.039 OPS in spring, striking out just four times in the process. Now, with Westburg sidelined indefinitely, this looked like his chance.

Well, just because you need a hero doesn’t always mean you get one.

This, at least, is what we were saying for the first two months of the season.

From late March to most of May, Mayo was hitting .174/.242/.321, striking out in over 30% of his plate appearances, with a 41% whiff rate on curveballs. The line was bad enough that when Westburg’s injury was upgraded to season-ending the first week of May, the news was greeted with something like dread, because at this point, the conversation around Mayo (and Colton Cowser, for that matter) suggested less that they’d be rotation saviors or stalwarts, and more that is was plausible they should be optioned. At one point in early May, Mayo had gone 4-for-35 over a 13-game stretch. The prospect bloom, it seemed, had finally and definitively come off the rose.

Yet it’s now late May, and, I’m pleased to report, something seems to have shifted in Mayo’s offensive approach.

Over the last 14 days, Mayo has hit .292/.393/.458, with an .851 OPS. He homered last night, the only Orioles run plated in a 2-1 loss to Toronto, and of six home runs he’s hit on the year, three have come since May 11. Over the last seven days, the numbers are even more eye-catching: .429/.500/.571 (in two games, owing to time missed with a back injury). Yes, it’s a fragile, fledgling little Oriole of a sample set. But the recent results aren’t coming out of nowhere, either.

Statcast data shows that the gap between Mayo’s surface stats and his quality of contact has been wide all year. His average exit velocity of 91.1 mph is in the 85th percentile of hitters, and his hard-hit rate of 45.3% 80th: such contact usually produces sluggers, not .195 hitters. In other words, Mayo has been hitting the ball hard into outs at an unusual rate, and the recent results may simply reflect some of that contact luck normalizing.

There’s also reason to think the improvement is at least partly behavioral, not purely luck. Mayo spent the offseason at TBT Training in Boca Raton doing something he’d never done before: grinding specifically on off-speed pitches. He and his trainers cranked a pitching machine to extreme movement profiles, using foam balls to simulate the nastiest sliders and curveballs major league pitchers could throw. “That was the first time I really went into the offseason and grinded like that with off-speed,” Mayo said in spring training.

For a while, the payoff of such work was pretty hard to see. A 41% whiff rate on curveballs told us as much. But Mayo seems to be trending in the right direction: in the month of May, his BA on breaking balls has leapt 80 points, despite seeing even more of the pitch. What’s more, nearly half of his hits this month have come on breaking or offspeed pitches. Perhaps he’s adjusting, and pitchers will conclude they can’t just feed him junk anymore.

Anyway, irresponsible article headline aside, we’ll need a lot more evidence before we proclaim a total rehabilitation of Coby Mayo. But at least things are looking better. The whole team, it appears, was cold at the plate in April, but they’ve hiked their batting average as a unit nearly thirty points in the last two weeks. For Mayo, the underlying tools visible in his Statcast data all year are starting to flash.

At any rate, a 6’5” right-handed hitter with plus-plus raw power, a 45% hard-hit rate, and a demonstrated willingness to do the work on his weaknesses is not a player the O’s should give up on in late May of his age-24 season, not with Westburg gone for the season and no one really knocking on the door.

The Orioles, to their credit, haven’t. Mayo’s manager Craig Albernaz has been explicit about the philosophy: “You sucked today, you’re gonna play tomorrow.” That kind of patience from a coaching staff is exactly what the young Mayo needs to break through the wall.

Happy Friday, everyone. It’s been a rough week to be a Tigers fan, and with the two upcoming series against the White Sox and Rays the Tigers are going to need to fight for every potential win. I never thought I’d say that about the White Sox, but they’ve just had their first winning month in almost three years and don’t seem like they plan to slow down any time soon.

In the meantime, Detroit’s downward trajectory coupled with Tarik Skubal’s speedier-than-hoped recovery timeline means it’s time to start heating up the hot stove, because rumors are swirling. Should the Tigers sell in the hope of being competitive in the future, or should they hold on and try to hope for a comeback this season? Only time will tell. Skubal has to get healthy first.

And healthy is something the Tigers don’t know much about this season. They have yet to go a single week this year without having a player on the IL, and this week is no different. Fingers crossed things start turning around.

Detroit Tigers News

• While Tarik Skubal is still getting back into the swing of things, he’s on track to return as soon as everything looks good. Of course, with the Tigers flagging miserably since he’s been gone, the trade rumors are still swirling at an all-time high. Mark Feinsand at MLB dot com looked at what insiders were saying about the likelihood of Skubal being moved this season. The consensus among the unnamed AL executives quoted in the article is that a lot will depend on whether the Tigers feel they are truly out of contention. If they believe they have a shot at the postseason, don’t expect Skubal to go anywhere. One exec said about a trade:

“I always think there is a chance, but they would have to feel confident that they aren’t going to be able to go on a run… And that the return would be significant enough to wave the proverbial white flag.”

• Jim Bowden of The Athletic, meanwhile, is making hypothetical Skubal trades with every team. ($)
• Kenley Jansen in headed to the IL with pelvic inflammation.
• Tom Selleck takes his hot dogs plain like an absolutel madman.

If Mr. Baseball wants a hot dog, Mr. Baseball gets a hot dog. 🌭 pic.twitter.com/R7GeMWHqkm

— Detroit SportsNet (@WatchDSN) May 28, 2026

AL Central News

• The Guardians have a new minority owner.

• The White Sox have had their first winning month since 2023. Just in time to face the Tigers…

MLB News

• MLB has made its first CBA proposal.
• And here’s a look at the MLBPA proposal.
• Trying to explain how James Wood is being baffled by his own strike zone.
• The return of Gerrit Cole couldn’t have come soon enough for the Yankees.
• How Jacob Misiorowski fast-tracked his way to becoming an ace.
• How the Rays are defying all expectations to have a crazy successful season.
• Chris Sale has still got it.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. gave his bat a little smooch after his home run cleared the Green Monster.
• Why is Paul Skenes so much better during night games than day games?
• Freddie Freeman explained why he might be bumping up his retirement timeline.
• Shohei Ohtani is his own harshest critic.
• Some Mariners pitchers aren’t happy about the unusual approach to pitching the team is trying.
• How the Phillies managed to turn things around so quickly. (Perhaps the Tigers should take some notes)
• The Cubs have been super hot, then super cold this season, is there still time for things to turn around?
• How a photographer captured the moment of Nolan Ryan’s iconic bloody jersey.
• Wander Franco may escape jail time, but his baseball career is over. ($)
• Umpire CB Bucknor is still recovering after taking a ball to the mask in an April game. ($)
• Is Sacramento making a serious case to be the next home of an MLB team instead of a temporary one?

• I had no idea there was lore behind the Red Sox playing “Sweet Caroline.”

Jhoan Duran has been every bit the elite closer he was advertised as since arriving in Philadelphia last year. In 40 appearances since joining the Phillies at the trade deadline last season, Duran is 27 for 30 in save opportunities with a 1.93 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He’s off to a great start so far in 2026, as Duran is a perfect 11 for 11 in save opportunities and sports a 1.62 ERA through 17 appearances. He’s been especially dominant since returning from the injured list on May 5th, as he has allowed two runs across 10 appearances on 7 hits with 18 strikeouts to 5 walks. 

Naturally, whenever a trade acquisition has been this good with a new team, the idea of a contract extension will inevitably be brought up. Duran is currently under team control via arbitration through the 2027 season and will be eligible for free agency at age 30. He is making $7.5M this season, a nice increase from the $4M he made in 2025. An extension is at least partially on Duran’s mind, as he declined an invitation to pitch in the World Baseball Classic due to his lack of long-term security. 

So what would a Duran extension look like? A few recent reliever deals may help paint a picture. Edwin Diaz signed a five year, $103M deal with the Mets prior to 2023 and opted out of the final two years of the deal to hit free agency last offseason. That’s when he agreed to a new three-year deal with the Dodgers worth $69M. That Dodgers deal effectively added an extra year to his original Mets deal and an additional $31M, bringing the total value to $134M over six years for an estimated average annual value of $22M. Josh Hader signed a five year, $95M contract with the Astros prior to 2024 that will pay him an estimated $19M a season. Diaz was 29 when he signed his original deal with the Mets and was 32 when he signed his new deal with the Dodgers while Hader was 30 when he signed with the Astros. 

Using those two as a barometer, and assuming Duran continues on his current pace, we can expect that a Jhoan Duran contract extension would cost at least $20M a season and be around five years in length. A five year, $100M+ deal for a reliever may seem terrifying, but that is now the going rate for closers of Duran’s caliber. If the Phillies want to lock up Duran and officially make him a part of their future pitching core with Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo, it will behoove them to move sooner rather than later before the closer market balloons again. That is before even factoring in the unknown status of MLB’s financial system in the next CBA.

So, should the Phillies begin negotiations with Jhoan Duran over a contract extension? If so, what contract would you offer? Or should they let him play out his current team control and address it later? 

The Cubs broke their long losing streak with a 10-4 win over the Pirates Wednesday, though that game was close until the late innings after the Cubs had taken an early lead.

They followed the same script Thursday, though it took them a while to break through against Paul Skenes. Even so, a 3-0 lead became 3-2 and it felt a bit too close for a while until Ian Happ’s eighth-inning homer keyed a three-run inning, leading to a 7-2 Cubs win over the Pirates. Hey, a baby winning streak, two in a row!

Paul Skenes had no trouble to start things off, retiring 10 of the first 11 Cubs, seven of those by strikeout. The first Cub to reach base until the fourth was Dansby Swanson, who walked in the third.

Pete Crow-Armstrong then singled and tried to stretch that into two bases when Swanson drew a throw to third.

Not a good idea, Pete [VIDEO].

I understand wanting to be aggressive on the bases and the play was, indeed, close. But against a pitcher like Skenes who’s dealing? Why not just have runners on first and third with two out?

Colin Rea was matching zeroes with Skenes, though he did give up a double in the first and walked and hit a batter in the third.

Then Michael Busch walked with one out in the fourth and one out later, Ian Happ singled.

Seiya Suzuki’s single gave the Cubs the lead [VIDEO].

Fact about that run from BCB’s JohnW53:

This was the third time in their eight games facing Skenes that the Cubs scored first. They won both of the previous two, also at Pittsburgh, 14-10 on Aug. 28, 2024, and 4-1 on Sept. 16 of last year. Skenes got the loss in the first game and no decision in the second.

1-0 Cubs was how the game stayed until the top of the sixth. Busch walked for the second time and Alex Bregman reached on a throwing error.

An infield single by Happ and another Pirates error made it 2-0 [VIDEO].

Bregman took third on the play and that was it for Skenes, who threw 103 pitches in 5.1 innings. That’s always a good game plan against Skenes — try to run up his pitch count and get him out of the game as early as possible. He did strike out 10 Cubs. Mason Montgomery relieved Skenes and got Suzuki to hit a ground ball, but Suzuki beat a possible double-play relay and Bregman crossed the plate with the third Cubs run [VIDEO].

The Pirates, though, made it close in the bottom of the sixth. Bryan Reynolds, always tough on Cubs pitching, homered, his 14th all-time against the Cubs. Two more hits, including an RBI double from rookie Tyler Callihan off reliever Hoby Milner, made it 3-2. The second run was charged to Rea, who overall I thought threw pretty well. Here’s a summary of Rea’s outing [VIDEO].

Caleb Thielbar threw a scoreless seventh, striking out two, and then the Cubs blew the game open in the top of the eighth — all with two out and nobody on base. Bregman singled and Happ followed with his 12th home run of the year [VIDEO].

That ball was crushed! [VIDEO]

Here’s a cool field-level view of Happ’s homer [VIDEO].

The Cubs were not done in that inning. Suzuki singled and pinch-hitter Michael Conforto walked. Both runners moved up on a wild pitch, and as ball four was thrown to Miguel Amaya, the pitch got by Pirates catcher Henry Davis and Suzuki scored to make it 6-2 [VIDEO].

Trent Thornton threw a 1-2-3 eighth, all on ground outs, and the Cubs then extended their lead in the top of the ninth. PCA walked and Nico Hoerner singled. PCA drew a throw again when he tried for third, and this time he was safe, with Nico taking second.

Then this happened [VIDEO].

Bregman hit a grounder to second and the Pirates threw home to try to get PCA. He was called out, but the call was overturned on review to make it 7-2. You can see PCA’s right hand touch the plate just before he was tagged

Thornton allowed a leadoff single in the ninth, then got a double-play ball and this fly to deep right field to end the game [VIDEO].

Nice work by Thornton, who got six outs on only 22 pitches. He’s become a real asset in the bullpen.

More on this win from John:

With their win Thursday night, the Cubs are 164-156 since 2000 in games immediately after ones in which they had scored at least 10 runs. They are 4-2 this season.

The Cubs averaged 12.02 runs in the double-digit games, then 4.83 in the next games, including 6.66 in the wins.

Here’s Happ on his home run, on facing Skenes and about Rea’s game [VIDEO].

Happ appears to be starting one of his hot streaks. He went 5-for-11 in the last two games in Pittsburgh with two home runs and seven RBI. Also, this fun fact about Happ:

Here are Craig Counsell’s postgame comments [VIDEO].

The win put the Cubs in second place in the NL Central, half a game ahead of the Cardinals (despite having one more loss) and four games behind the Brewers. And they’ll have a chance to put more distance between themselves and the Cardinals beginning tonight, as they open their first 2026 series against their division rivals in St. Louis. Shōta Imanaga will start for the Cubs and Andre Pallante goes for the Cardinals. Game time is 6:15 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network.

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The Minnesota Twins continue an extended road trip as they face the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight to begin a weekend series. 

With flamethrower Jared Jones making his long-awaited return to the mound, my Twins vs. Pirates predictions and MLB picks see him hurling Pittsburgh to a victory

Who will win Twins vs Pirates today: Pirates moneyline (-134)

Taj Bradley and Jared Jones are similar in that they're both uber-talented hurlers under 25 who miss a ton of bats. They also have the same Achilles heel — allowing too much loud contact, and too frequently in the air. 

Only one lineup is poised to exploit this flaw, however. The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 112 wRC+ against RHP in the last 20 days, while the Minnesota Twins are well behind with an 86 wRC+.

Pittsburgh’s 40% hard-hit rate will make noise against Bradley’s second percentile average exit velocity and 18th percentile hard-hit rate. I'd play this to -140.

COVERS INTEL:Jared Jones strikes out 9.76 batters per nine innings. He’ll find strikeout aplenty against Minnesota, which has the third-highest K% (24.6%) and third-lowest contact rate (73.6%) over the last 20 days.

Twins vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-130)

Both starters have nasty stuff, so this is a pitcher’s delight. Bradley has a 108 Stuff+, while Jones can touch 100 mph with his heater. 

The Twins’ 30.1% hard-hit rate over the last 20 days is the third-worst in the Big Leagues, so they don’t appear equipped to punish Jones’ proclivity for allowing loud contact (eighth percentile hard-hit rate when we last saw him in 2024).

The total is inflated due to the weather (high 70s, winds of 8-10 mph blowing out), but PNC Park has the second-lowest park factor for home runs, which mitigates that concern.

Twins vs Pirates odds

• Moneyline: Twins +115 | Pirates -135
• Run line: Twins +1.5 (-180) | Pirates -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Twins vs Pirates trend

The Pirates are 12-6 in their last 18 games against right-handed starting pitchers. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Pirates.

How to watch Twins vs Pirates and game info

Twins vs Pirates latest injuries

Twins vs Pirates weather

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As the most recent member of the 20 jacks club, Munetaka Murakami has proven that he’s the real deal. As the first rookie ever to blast 20 homers before June, Murakami quickly progressed from winning over White Sox fans’ hearts to gaining national traction. In less than two months, his name is already getting thrown around with Kyle Schwarber, Yordan Alvarez and Aaron Judge in home run champion conversations.

Although the Sox have cleared the .500 bar, it’s much easier and more tempting to focus on the future than bask in a present where the Cubs are fighting to stay out of the NL Central cellar. Even two months out from the trade deadline, the biggest question still remains: What does Murakami’s future on the South Side look like now that it’s clear his big-league career isn’t going to peter out anytime soon? 

Least Desirable and Least Likely: Traded at the Deadline
No matter the return, losing Murakami in July would be the biggest blow to the team and fans.

Murakami appears to be outplaying his 1.8 WAR in multiple ways. He’s the AL leader in runs scored (42), at-bats per home runs (9.8), and home runs (20, of course), while sitting in the Top 5 for qualified AL hitters for a number of categories:

• Slugging percentage (.561)
• OPS (.936)
• RBIs (40)
• Walks (42)
• Putouts (380)
• Range factor per nine innings (8.44) at first base 

Even if his production level isn’t steady for the rest of the season, the Sox won the first Crosstown series at home thanks to two Murakami tanks, so the first $17 million of his contract has already paid itself off. Clearing Murakami’s locker from the clubhouse wouldn’t kill the vibe or run production, but it would significantly stunt it. 

Plus, there’s no reason to be greedy. Stocking up on Triple-A players when the Sox currently have four Top 100-ranked prospects and two highly-underrated players in Jacob Gonzalez and Ben Peoples isn’t just stingy, it’s illogical.

Jerry Reinsdorf can’t avoid the truth: Chicago can’t afford to lose Murakami before 2028.

Most Lucrative and Least Expected: Contract Extension
While Murakami may not garner the same degree of international following, keeping him in a Sox uniform would be the most lucrative option for the front office. 

Murakami has undoubtedly been the best free agent investment the White Sox have made since perhaps the beloved Jermaine Dye in 2004. The Japanese Babe Ruth has played a significant role in increasing the Sox’s average game attendance by 12% (roughly 2,300 fans). White it may seem small, attendance revenue exponentially increases with each attendee. Taking Capitol City Now’s $62.37 estimated cost per fan per game, the estimated revenue from those 2,300-ish fans is roughly $145.5k, and that’s excluding merchandise sales. With Murakami’s salary sitting at about $105k per game he plays this season, the increase in attendance more than covers his bat in the lineup. Factoring in increased merchandise sales and media sharing revenue from international and domestic fans, the front office is sitting on a decent financial cushion that grows with each game the Sox win.

Keeping average attendance the same, the Sox can afford to pay him $23.5 million AAV. For a guy that could potentially lead the Sox to a winning season, it’s hard to see why the Sox wouldn’t cough up another $3.5 million and replace Murakami with Andrew Benintendi’s contract that expires in 2027.

Even with a 32.% strikeout rate and just over 42% whiff rate, the Sox aren’t getting shortchanged on Murakami. Until he proves otherwise, there’s no incentive or motivator to not give him an extension.

Most Expected: No Contract Extension 
Fans are already begging future Sox owner Justin Ishbia to keep Murakami on the team beyond 2030, but one can only keep their head in the clouds for so long. Coming back to earth, Murakami will serve his two years while Sox fans soak up every moment of it before the Dodgers or Yankees swoop in winter 2027 and snag him for $250 million over seven years. But is this really a horrible outcome?

Barring significant injuries or a multi-month slump, Murakami’s price will inevitably be high heading into free agency. Because there are too many salary uncertainties surrounding free agency with the new CBA negotiations underway, it’s safe to assume that the Sox won’t be able to meet Murakami’s asking price, even if there’s a salary floor. Best-case scenario, the Sox drop more than $30 million on a guy that can’t hit better than .220 and whose home run output tampers to 20 in one season. Worst-case scenario, Murakami becomes the next Luis Robert Jr. and misses more than half of the season from injuries. And we all know how that one is going.

When the 2026 MLB Draft begins July 13 in Philadelphia ahead of the All-Star Game, UC Santa Barbara right-handed pitcher Jackson Flora is expected to be one of the first names taken off the board.

That moment will launch his professional career, which will likely begin in late July or early August, once he signs, either at his new team's spring training complex or rookie ball, or even both.

Fans still have some time to watch and scout the projected top-5 pick at the collegiate level, as the 6-5 right-hander has helped lead UC Santa Barbara to the NCAA Baseball Tournament.

NCAA baseball tournament predictions: Who is advancing to super regionals?

Flora has taken a big jump in his development this season, transforming into one of the top pitching prospects at the mid-major level while also taking on a larger workload on the Gauchos' pitching staff, which is top 10 in ERA and WHIP.

He enters the postseason 11-0 in 15 starts (two complete game shutouts) with a nation-leading 1.05 ERA. A semifinalist for the Golden Spikes Award, the highest individual honor handed out in college baseball, Flora has 124 strikeouts this season and has held opponents to a .169 batting average in 94 1/3 innings of work.

Here's what to know about Flora's MLB draft projections and more as UC Santa Barbara competes in the Austin Regional of the NCAA Baseball Tournament this weekend:

Jackson Flora MLB draft projections

Flora is projected to be a first-round draft pick by MLB draft analysts.

Here's a breakdown of exactly where MLB draft analysts have Flora being taken:

• USA TODAY (as of April 20): No. 3 overall to the Minnesota Twins
• ESPN (as of May 14):No. 5 overall to the Pittsburgh Pirates
• MLB.com/MLB Pipeline (as of May 21):No. 3 overall to the Minnesota Twins
• The Athletic (as of May 7):No. 4 to the San Francisco Giants

Jackson Flora MLB draft rankings, grades

MLB Pipeline has Flora as the No. 4 overall prospect and the No. 1 pitching prospect in the upcoming MLB draft.

His fastball has a 70 scouting grade — an individual tool used with the MLB draft, where players are graded on a scale of 20-80 in different categories — according to MLB Pipeline. Flora's other scouting grades include a 55 for his slider, his changeup and command. He has an overall scouting grade of 60, which Major League Baseball defines as "above average."

As noted by USA TODAY, the scouting grades assigned to a player are usually based on what the player will eventually develop into rather than where they stand at the time of being drafted or early on in their professional career.

Here's MLB Pipeline's scouting report on Flora:

"Flora's combination of size and arm strength should intrigue most teams. The 6-foot-5 right-hander already offers premium velocity, with a fastball that sits in the 96-97 mph range and regularly touches triple digits, with good shape, carry and armside ride to it. He'll employ two different sliders, both of which can flash plus. There's a slower 78-81 mph sweeper with a lot of horizontal depth and also a harder, more gyro-like traditional slider, thrown 86-89 mph. He has plus feel to spin and just needs to gain a little bit more consistency with shape. His hard changeup is coming along, a kick change with downer splitter depth that now flashes plus.

"A solid strike-thrower who maintains his velocity, Flora might not have the same feel to pitch Bremner had, but he's more physical than his predecessor. He's posting every week for the Gauchos and has separated himself more than any college arm in the class, so he should fly off the board early in the first round."

Jackson Flora stats

Here's a year-by-year look at Flora's stats at UC Santa Barbara:

• 2024: 3-2 record with a 3.82 ERA and five saves in 47.0 innings pitched with 40 strikeouts and 25 walks
• 2025: 6-3 record with a 3.60 ERA in 75.0 innings pitched with 86 strikeouts and 17 walks
• 2026: 11-0 record with a 1.05 ERA in 94 1/3 inning pitched with 124 strikeouts and 30 walks

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Jackson Flora MLB draft latest mock projections for UC Santa Barbara ace