A new week is here, and I'm ready to kick it off with three of my favorite home run props and predictions for tonight's MLB slate, highlighted by Shohei Ohtani and Matt Olson.
Here are my favorite MLB picks for Monday, Aug. 17.
The Los Angeles Dodgers superstar owns the No. 1 rating on Batters-Box, where he covers 100% of Sugano's pitch mix. On top of that, across 150 elite ratings on the road over the last three seasons, Ohtani has left the yard 26% of the time.
Sugano has struggled against left-handed hitters, allowing 2.30 HR/9 and a 14% barrel rate against his last 60 faced. Those hitters have posted a .310 xBA and .638 xSLG during that stretch.
With this matchup taking place in Coors, the +197 price tag is not THAT awful, but I would not take this down much further. Find a boost.
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: SNLA, COLR
Home run pick: Matt Olson (+291)
Atlanta Braves slugger Matt Olson has been generating a ton of hard contact and barrels over his last few games. He's coming off a home run on Sunday, but his matchup against Minnesota Twins right-hander Bailey Ober this evening might be even better.
Against the last 30 left-handed hitters he has faced, Ober is allowing a 43.3% hard-hit rate, 13.3% barrel rate, and 70% elevation rate. Those lefties own a .355 xBA, .680 xSLG, and .363 xwOBA.
Olson, across his last 10 games, is producing a near 50% hard-hit rate and 32% barrel rate, while posting a .684 SLG and .447 ISO.
At near three-to-one, it is a solid price worth paying. Take this down to +275.
Vargas, who homered on Sunday, has been racking up great numbers over his last 10 games. He's posted a .634 SLG, .366 ISO, and 12.5% barrel rate.
In his last 30 at-bats against a left-handed pitchers, he has a .520 SLG and .320 ISO, while generating a 50% hard-hit rate and 11.1% barrel rate.
The last 30 right-handed hitters Imanaga has faced have produced a 14.3% barrel rate and 23.8% ground-ball rate, while sporting a .341 xBA, .530 xSLG and .218 ISO.
Vargas should feast! Take this down to +300.
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Where to watch: CHSN, Marquee
Colby Marchio's 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 102-358, +11.3 units
Today’s HR combo
Shohei Ohtani
Trade Now +5056
Matt Olson
Miguel Vargas
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
DYERSVILLE, IOWA - AUGUST 13: The Philadelphia Phillies and the Minnesota Twins walk out of the cornfield prior to a game at Field of Dreams on August 13, 2026 in Dyersville, Iowa. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Prior to the Field of Dreams game, the Twins took care of business against the Orioles, with Dean Kremer providing a “Revenge Game TM” performance against his old team. Unfortunately, the good vibes stopped as soon as the Twins walked through the cornfields, as they finished out the week getting swept by the Phillies, including dropping the final game on Sunday where at one point, they had a 4-0 lead.
Despite the poor week, the team is still only 1.5 games out of the final wild card spot, although it’s becoming an increasingly crowded field with six teams within 2.5 games of the Orioles, who are in that spot.
It does not get easier for the Twins as they face off against Atlanta in a three-game series starting today and then travel to San Diego for the weekend.
The Past Week on Twinkie Town:
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Game threads and recaps are back! Commiserate with your fellow fans as we experience the season together.
In the last week, nothing changed among the top-five teams in the American League, with the Rays at the top, followed by the Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox, and Astros. The endless shuffle for the last wild card spot will be the race to watch for the remainder of the season.
Not much going on in the National League as well in the past week, with the only change being the flipping of the Padres and the Diamondbacks. It’s a much smaller field vying for that last spot, with three teams within 3.5 games of the Padres.
HOUSTON, TEXAS - MARCH 13: Matt Wilkinson #35 of Team Canada pitches against Team United States during the eighth inning at Daikin Park on March 13, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Kenneth Richmond/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The San Francisco Giants, as teams that are functionally eliminated from postseason contention should be doing, have turned to a youth movement in recent weeks. And that youth movement is taking another step forward. According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, the Giants are calling up 23-year old left-handed pitcher Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson. The Giants have an off-day today, but will resume action on Tuesday in Ohio, facing the Cleveland Guardians … the team they acquired Wilkinson from in May’s Patrick Bailey trade.
It’s a bizarre move, to say the least, and one likely driven in part by the Giants feeling that they would have to roster Wilkinson in November as a Rule 5 Draft protection. While Wilkinson dominated AA this year, both with the Guardians’ affiliate and then the Giants’, he’s struggled quite a bit since getting to AAA. In 10 starts with the Sacramento River Cats, Wilkinson has just a 5.15 ERA and a 5.38 FIP, with just 43 strikeouts in 43.2 innings (to go with 17 walks). That said, home runs have been the biggest issue Wilkinson has faced, and that’s at least partially due to the Coors Field-esque environment of the Pacific Coast League.
Still, it’s a bit odd to see a player who is struggling in AAA, and who is in his first season above A-ball, get the call to the Majors, even though it’s abundantly clear that the Giants are huge believers in Wilkinson’s southpaw funk. He’ll certainly need that funk to play well, because Wilkinson is an absolute unicorn in the modern era of baseball: he relies on a low-velocity fastball. Tugboat’s fastball has averaged just 89.9 mph in AAA this year, which would be 2nd percentile in the Majors. More bizarre is that he uses that pitch 61.9% of the time, which stands in stark contrast to all the other low-velo pitchers in the Majors. It is, to be frank, a profile that no successful Major League pitcher in recent years has had.
But there are always exceptions, and the Giants are clearly optimistic that Wilkinson — who was a 10th-round pick in 2023 — is one such exception.
It’s unclear whether the Giants intend to use Wilkinson as a starter or in relief for his MLB debut. He’s worked exclusively as a starter in his Minor League career, but unless Logan Webb is going on the IL after getting hit by a comebacker on Saturday, the Giants rotation doesn’t appear to have any openings. Webb and Landen Roupp are established pieces, while the Giants are enjoying getting a longer look at prospects Carson Whisenhunt and Blade Tidwell. Adrian Houser would be the obvious option to be replaced, but he’s been pitching well lately and coming off his best start of the year; given that he’s a veteran option with another year left on his deal, the Giants likely want to keep giving him opportunities to prove that he can be part of the solution in 2027.
With the Giants set to activate Marcelo Mayer later this week, with a trip to Fenway Park starting Friday, it seems that they’re bringing up both Wilkinson and Mayer to have revenge appearances against their former teams. Perhaps that’s pure coincidence, or perhaps it’s the front office playing with vengeance … which would certainly be an odd strategy for a team 22 games below .500.
Either way, one of the best nicknames in baseball is up, and that’s exciting, even if I remain perplexed by the way the Giants deal with prospects. Wilkinson will become the 11th Giants player to make his MLB debut this year, and the 12th to collect their first active-roster check (Zach Morgan was called up for one game, but didn’t play).
San Francisco will have to make corresponding moves on both the active and 40-man rosters for Wilkinson. The latter will be easy, as Casey Schmitt and Harrison Bader can both be transferred to the 60-Day IL.
Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in White Sox fans and fans across the country.
Well, it’s Crosstown week once again, and “this time it’s for real.” Did you know that of all the seasons since interleague play began (since 1997, that is), only one time have both the White Sox and Cubs won at least 65 games by their 125th contest? That came in the 2008 season — and now 2026 joins it, with the White Sox at 65-58 and the Cubs 72-53.
As the White Sox prepare to punch the Cubs in the mouth for a second series this season, we thought it might be fun to choose a favorite Sox triumph from interleague games past. The list was longer than what you see in the poll, but we had to trim some options away!
It's challenging to pinpoint a precise low point in this San Francisco Giants season. There are many candidates.
Yet if we are judging it by one of baseball's truest standards – the clubhouse doors staying shut long after the game ends, the manager arriving very late to his postgame media briefing, the airing out of the team emerging publicly – that moment arrived Sunday, Aug. 16, when the Giants suffered a 13-7 loss to the last-place Colorado Rockies.
It could be considered a seasonal nadir for many reasons, chief among them that the 50-74 Rockies won the season series against the Giants for the first time since 2018. And that Giants pitchers walked 10 batters and hit another, and let a run in on a wild pitch that rookie catcher Drew Cavanaugh could not locate just a few feet away.
After the trade deadline shipped off Luis Arráez and other parts, these Giants more resemble a college team. And manager Tony Vitello would know, having made the unprecedented jump from the University of Tennessee to the Giants dugout.
Yet in describing his team's play, Vitello went a step lower: Junior college.
"It had more the feel of a lower level, a junior-college game as opposed to a big-league game, with how some of the things transpired," Vitello told reporters in San Francisco. "And I was a juco guy, so I’m not disrespecting junior college."
Yikes.
Vitello even had one of his guys, former Volunteers starter Blade Tidwell, on the mound Sunday. Yet Tidwell was part of the problem, walking five and giving up six earned runs in 4⅓ innings. Another Vol, Drew Gilbert, batted leadoff, suddenly among the more senior members of a lineup that featured Cavanugh, Buddy Kennedy, Turner Hill and Osleivis Basabe.
Not exactly Arráez, Matt Chapman, Willy Adames.
And just how did Vitello's JC remarks hit in the clubhouse?
"I think he did a good job," Tidwell, the former Vol, told reporters. "Everybody was locked in, and the guys were nodding their heads and stuff. So I think everybody was on board with what he was saying."
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - APRIL 5: Richie Palacios #1 of the Tampa Bay Rays celebrates a go-ahead two-run home run against the Minnesota Twins during the tenth inning at Target Field on April 5, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Matt Krohn/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Rays opted to go with the “we have McDonalds at home” approach during the trade deadline by not acquiring any external talent to upgrade at second base. Luis Arraez was a popular name, but ultimately the team decided to roll with a platoon pairing of Richie Palacios and Ben Williamson.
Overall, this was a fairly obvious opportunity for an upgrade, as the Rays second basemen had accumulated the 5th lowest fWAR in the league heading into the trade deadline. The duo combined for an uninspiring 85 wRC+ across 525 PA from the beginning of the season through August 2nd, the day before the trade deadline. The defense at the position has been a mixed bag too with middle of the pack DRS numbers but bottom of the league OAA.
The Rays decided to lean into what they’ve been doing all season by putting their faith in Palacios and Williamson. But then, a wrench was thrown into their plans when Williamson went down with a hamstring strain after playing parts of just two games following the trade deadline. The team has stated Williamson will miss some time, and those words typically mean a player will miss multiple weeks whenever Kevin Cash says that, and may well put Williamson out of commission until the playoffs.
Palacios was thus been given the keys to the car and will be playing most days at the position. He has rewarded the Rays for their trust in him by elevating his game and leaning into his strengths.
The Rays didn’t necessarily “find” something in Palacios after the deadline, but they gave him an opportunity to do more of what he was already good at, and it’s working:
Palacios 2026
Pre Trade Deadline (260 PA)
Post Trade Deadline (39 PA)
Chase% with less than 2 strikes
23.9%
18.8%
% of PAs that end with him ahead in the count
29.6%
41.0%
Hardhit flyball + line drive%
16.2%
39.1%
The data here tells a story: Palacios is comfortable and not trying to do too much at the plate, so he’s expanding the zone less when he doesn’t have to. Because he’s chasing less, he’s getting into more favorable counts. Then when Palacios is in those favorable counts, he’s attacking pitches he can do damage on, and he’s hitting them hard with lift.
This isn’t a complicated thing, but it is easier said than done.
Letting Palacios play most days has given him the security and comfort to play his game and stick to what he does well: grind out at-bats. He’s already a tough out given his plate discipline and bat-to-ball ability, but Palacios has found a new gear. He was seeing 3.85 pitches per PA before the deadline and is seeing 4.67 pitches per PA since then. While this is a small sample and things will vary as the season continues, the exact numbers here for Palacios are less important than the trends they’re revealing. The underlying data shows us he’s confident and locked-in with his approach.
It will be interesting to see if the Rays return Palacios to his strict platoon role now that they’ve added right handed hitting veteran infielder Jorge Mateo, the Braves backup short stop that was cut due to the return of Ha-Seong Kim from the injured list. It seems likely they will, with Kevin Cash starting Mateo for the first time on Sunday against a southpaw, but regardless Palacios should expect to still pick up 75% of the at bats for second base through the rest of 2026, and deservedly so.
Palacios’s team-leading 204 wRC+ since the deadline is likely unsustainable, but he doesn’t need to maintain anything close to that level to make the Rays’ decision look smart. If he settles in around 10-15% above league average against righties, Palacios will still provide meaningful value and help lengthen the lineup.
The Rays continue to make the right moves, and in this case the right move was making no move at all.
The middle of the American League standings has turned into a mediocre mess.
It might make for a fascinating playoff race.
There are seven teams fighting for the final AL wild-card spot and all of them have a record below .500. The Baltimore Orioles would make the playoffs if the season ended now, sporting a 61-63 record.
Right behind them: The Texas Rangers (61-64), Toronto Blue Jays (61-65), Detroit Tigers (60-64), Minnesota Twins (60-65), Cleveland Guardians (60-65) and Seattle Mariners (59-66). The Houston Astros could be in the mix as well with a 63-62 record that gives them a narrow advantage in the AL West.
Many of those teams were sellers at the trade deadline. The Blue Jays traded outfielder Daulton Varsho to the Astros, the Orioles traded former No. 1 pick Adley Rutschman to the Red Sox and the Tigers dealt ace Tarik Skubal to the Dodgers and right-hander Casey Mize to the Padres.
Now at least one of those teams might find itself playing baseball in October anyway.
Only three teams in MLB history have made the playoffs with a losing record and all of them happened during seasons when the schedule was much shorter than normal.
The 1981 Kansas City Royals (50-53) qualified for the postseason thanks to a split-season format caused by a players’ strike during the middle of the summer. In 2020, the Houston Astros and Milwaukee Brewers both squeezed into the playoff bracket with a 29-31 record during the pandemic-shortened season that had an expanded playoff field of 16 teams.
Trivia question
Joshua Báez became the first player to hit three home runs in his big-league debut, leading the Cardinals to an 8-4 victory over the Chicago Cubs.
Only seven players have hit even two homers in their first regular-season game in the majors since 1900. Who are they?
The workhorse returns
Miami Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara has had a great bounce-back season with a 13-7 record and 3.43 ERA after struggling last year following Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss the 2024 season.
He’s also doing what he does best — pitch deep into games.
The 2022 National League Cy Young winner already has thrown 170 2/3 innings this year, which leads the big leagues by a large margin. If he continues at this pace, he’ll throw roughly 220 innings in 2026.
Throwing more than 200 innings increasingly has become rare over the past few decades as teams lean more on their bullpens. Only three pitchers reached the mark last season — Logan Webb, Garrett Crochet and Cristopher Sanchez.
Just 20 years ago in 2006, there were 45 pitchers who hit 200 innings.
If Alcantara manages to make it to 220 this season, that will be most in the big leagues since — Sandy Alcantara. He threw 228 2/3 innings during 2022 when he won the Cy Young.
Dodgers in the dumps
The Los Angeles Dodgers are the two-time defending World Series champs and one of the favorites to win the title again this season.
They sure aren’t playing like these days.
Los Angeles is 5-11 in its past 16 games, having been swept by the Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs and losing series to the Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers in that span. Since July 1, the Dodgers are 18-21.
“I say this because it’s just been four or five, six weeks of below average production in our offense. It’s just the truth, and I think we have just haven’t played clean baseball for quite some time, and that speaks to the defense,” manager Dave Roberts said.
The Dodgers have a chance to gain some momentum this week with three games against the Colorado Rockies and three more against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Rockies are in last place in the NL West while the Pirates have fallen to 61-65 after a promising start to the season.
Trivia Answer
Jose Fernandez (D-backs, 2026), Chase DeLauter (Guardians, 2026), Trevor Story (Rockies, 2016), J.P. Arencibia (Blue Jays, 2010), Mark Quinn (Royals, 1999), Bert Campaneris (Kansas City Athletics, 1964), Bob Nieman (Browns, 1951)
TORONTO, ON - AUGUST 15: Ernie Clement #22, Andrés Giménez #0, Nathan Lukes #38 and Myles Straw #3 of the Toronto Blue Jays celebrate after winning the game between the New York Yankees and the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on Saturday, August 15, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Colton Hall/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
It has been a while since we’ve had an off-day. The Jays haven’t had an off-day since July 30th. At that time we were 5.5 games back of the Wild Card spot, with six teams to jump. Now they are just one game back, with two teams to jump over. That turnaround in 17 games is almost unbelievable. Add in that we played some very tough teams, and it seems totally unbelievable.
The next six games, against the Rays in that abomination, Tropicana Field and the Yankees in the Bronx, are important, but a split would be enough to keep us in the race, not that winning 4 or 5 would be a bad thing. After that, the schedule gets easier, which doesn’t mean they are automatic wins or anything.
And there are six games left against the Orioles and three games against the Rangers, the two teams that are directly in front of us.
But this is an Open Thread, so you don’t have to talk about that. You don’t have to figure out how many of the last 25 games the Jays would have to win to make the playoffs. Nor would you have to show your work.
I’m sorry to see that Hayden Panettiere died. I’ve been rewatching Heros this last couple of weeks. The first season was good; after that, less so, but that wasn’t Hayden’s fault. Somewhere I have an autographed picture of her in the cheerleader costume. I guess the world won’t be saved now.
Also, Tommy John passed. I’ve seen a fair number of people saying he should be in the Hall of Fame, if not for his pitching (he did have an excellent career, 288 wins, which I find hard to believe isn’t enough for the Hall and a 62.1 bWAR), but for lending his name to baseball’s most prominent operation.
Professional sports are a bottom line business and we run the risk of making things too simple. Entering the season it would fair to say that the playoffs were a litmus test on the 2026 for both Dana Brown and Joe Espada. If they were able to win the division they would likely keep their job and if they didn’t make the playoffs they would likely lose their job. However, that benchmark flies in the face of common sense.
In short, not every division is created equal. We see it in the NFL every season. At least one of the divisions (usually the AFC or NFC South) will see a 9-8 team when the division. We have seen 7-9 teams win the division before. This season has seen the extreme version of that in the AL West. It appears now that if any team finishes .500 or better they will take the division. Below is a quick look at the projected standings according to Fangraphs.com along with how much each team is spending according to Spotrac.com and their millions per win.
Salary
Won-Loss
Cost per win
Houston Astros
239.0
82-80
2.91
Texas Rangers
189.5
80-82
2.37
Seattle Mariners
165.7
79-83
2.10
Los Angeles Angels
172.3
65-97
2.65
Homeless Athletics
96.0
65-97
1.48
In Economics, there is something called the law of diminishing returns. It essentially means that there is a saturation point where additional resources (or personnel) really don’t add productivity. I would surmise that when we get to the teams at or above the tax line we will see similar results as we see here with Houston. However, Jim Crane would be correct to point out that he’s not getting a ton of bang for his buck.
More than one thing can be true at the same time. The Astros can both reach global expectations by advancing to the wild card round of the playoffs and grossly underperform at the same time. Given the financial disparity between the Astros and the rest of the division, they should be in the lead. As much as we may decry Jim Crane not being willing to go above the tax, he certainly is supporting the team financially more than any other team in the division.
We could look at Brown’s moves on the pitching side of things this season and come away extremely underwhelmed. It is also fair to look at the deadline and come away disappointed. The biggest drawbacks came in the simultaneous comments about the need for a right handed hitting outfielder and the fact that we didn’t get pitching, but we have guys coming back from injuries and that is like getting a guy in a trade.
The first one is an easy one. Brown was fixated on left handed hitting outfielders and we have looked long and hard on that fixation. The question will be whether there was someone better than Nelson Velasquez available and what the cost would have been to get that player. The second question is a little more dubious because this isn’t the first year we are hearing this. Suffice it to say, expecting pitchers to return from Tommy John and immediately produce is a fool’s errand.
The Astros have two pitchers returning from TJ surgery and one that is about a year removed from his return. That pitcher also missed about two months to injury this season. So, let’s take a look at what all three have done since coming back. In short, was banking on league average performance from those arms really a good mathematical gamble?
Games
INN
ER
H
SO
BB
ERA
Ronel Blanco
5
23.1
20
22
20
12
8.14
Hayden Wesneski
4
22.2
13
23
18
7
5.16
Cristian Javier
7
23.0
11
26
21
7
4.30
Total
16
69.0
44
71
59
26
5.74
There are multiple ways to look at this data. We can look at as a whole. Simply put, the collective performance isn’t good enough. Given that Tatsuya Imai has failed in the rotation and Mike Burrows is currently rehabbing, but he hasn’t been good enough either. The initial plan following the deadline was for these three pitchers to take the last three spots in the rotation. That plan is obviously a losing plan before you even start.
Thus comes the problem with Brown. If the plan was that hopefully one of these three pitchers would be usable then you could look at Javier’s numbers and say that was a success. If you came in with the expectation that one of the three would be an absolute dud then Blanco would fit that profile. Success and failure is not necessarily a binary thing. A lot of is nuance and depends on what was expected. For instance, Burrows opened the season as the number two starter. That was an abject failure.
Presumably, he will have one more rehab start and could theoretically return. If he finished the season strong then you could look at him as a global success in that he could finish at or near career norms. The same true of Imai if he finishes the season strong in the bullpen. It wouldn’t meet the lofty expectations, but the final verdict would be more complicated than a simple fail.
There isn’t a single person that should look at 82 wins as successful. It might be for some franchises for their own personal situation. For instance, the White Sox have taken a nice step forward this season. For a team spending nearly 240 million dollars, 82 wins is simply not good enough. There are always whys and what fors in these situations. Maybe ownership hamstrung him. Maybe he was hamstrung by a lack of resources or good minor league talent to trade. Maybe any one of us would have said no to any of the offers he was getting to bring in pitching or a right handed bat. These are all legitimate reasons and/or excuses. Still, it’s a bottom line business and the bottom line is that this is not good enough. You might win a crappy division and certainly that is something, but it is not the something we expected at the beginning of the season.
ATLANTA, GA - November 03: A World Championship banner is displayed on the side of the plane carrying the Atlanta Braves after the team returned from winning the World Series between the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves on Wednesday, November 03, 2021 at Signature Elite Class at Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Austin McAfee/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Seven days. Four ballparks. Three Teams. Two full series. One long week of travel. That is what awaits the Atlanta Braves this week as they get set to embark on a road trip that’ll see them getting well acquainted with putting their phones in airplane mode. The good news about this road trip is that it’ll all take place in Central Division territory, as the Braves will be going to Minneapolis for three games, Chicago for a make-up game, Milwaukee for two games and then Williamsport, Pennsylvania on Sunday for the Little League Classic.
With that being said, that’s still a lot of travel to be doing in the span of seven days and we’ll see how well the Braves hold up for what’ll surely be a grueling week both physically and mentally. It’s time to take a look at what could be a very tough week ahead for the Braves.
August 17-19: Minnesota Twins
Current Record: 60-65 Projected Record (via FanGraphs): 79-83
To put in comparison the performance of the National League when compared to the American League in 2026, the Washington Nationals are 60-66 and currently have a 0.4 percent chance of making the Postseason (according to FanGraphs). The Minnesota Twins are 60-65 and yet they have a 21 percent chance of making the Postseason. There’s a decent shot that somewhere between 80 and 82 wins will be enough for a team to take the third and final Wild Card spot, which means that Minnesota isn’t simply playing out the string here. If they (or anybody else, really) can get hot then the Postseason picture could really shake up.
So yeah, I’m saying all of that to say that we shouldn’t expect the Twins to simply roll over during this series. That especially won’t be the case since Byron Buxton is currently health and will be playing during this series after his most recent IL stint ended on August 13. Buxton did pick up a double during the Field of Dreams Game but outside of that, Philadelphia kept him quiet and it would be nice to see the Braves continue to keep him quiet going forward. Still, the Braves will also have to worry about making sure that Ryan Jeffers doesn’t have an outsized impact on the series as well, since he’s been having a very good season at the plate so far and could be dangerous, himself. Trevor Larnach, Kody Clemons, Royce Lewis and Luke Keaschall will also be names to watch as this series unfolds.
As far as the pitching matchups go, this should be manageable for the Braves. Bailey Ober has been pretty average so far this season and he hasn’t exactly been in shutdown mode since the All-Star break, as he’s produced an ERA of 5.27 and a FIP of 4.47 over his past five starts since the second half began. Zebby Matthews’ season-long ERA is 5.34 (5.05 FIP) and he’s currently in a bit of a rough patch where he gave up six runs (three earned) against the Brewers on August 7 and then the Orioles tagged him for four runs in five innings in his most recent start. Taj Bradley is currently Minnesota’s best healthy starter since Joe Ryan is currently on the IL and that could prove to be tough. Chris Sale will be starting opposite Bradley in that one, so that could potentially be another pitchers’ duel for Sale to navigate once again.
On paper, the Braves should be looking forward to taking care of business but at the same time, we all know that the game’s not played on paper or a spreadsheet. Still, Atlanta’s got to make sure that they get something from this series since the road trip will only get zanier from here.
Monday, August 17 at 7:40 p.m. ET (BravesVision) Tuesday, August 18 at 7:40 p.m. ET (BravesVision) Wednesday, August 19 at 1:40 p.m. ET (BravesVision)
August 20: Chicago White Sox
Current Record: 65-58 Projected Record: 83-79
Remember when the Braves went into that absolute tailspin during the month of June? Well, they’re returning to the genesis of that tailspin as it’s time to make up the final game of that series against the Chicago White Sox. There won’t be an on-field reunion with Joey Bart since he unfortunately suffered a fracture in his left hand. This will be a chance for the Braves to get introduced to Munetaka Murakami, who has been a personal favorite of mine since his days playing with the Tokyo Yakult Swallows. Of course, we’re all rooting for the Braves to keep him quiet but he’ll certainly be arguably the most dangerous hitter for Atlanta to deal with in this one.
Miguel Vargas has been having a fantastic season, himself and he alongside Murakami have proved to be a very dangerous duo in Chicago’s lineup. Chase Meidroth has also been a handful for opposing teams to deal with, along with Tristaan Peters and Samuel Antonacci. Braden Montgomery is also here and hopefully he doesn’t continue to do damage against the Braves like he did once he broke into the big leagues and had a dream debut at Atlanta’s expense.
There could be a bit of a wild card when it comes to the starter for this game as far as the White Sox go, since Davis Martin’s injury and IL stint due to a blister has shaken up Chicago’s rotation a bit. If they still follow their current pattern then the starter for this game should be Anthony Kay (4.01 ERA, 96 ERA-, 4.79 FIP, 112 FIP-) or possibly Jose Urquidy. Either way, the Braves should avoid Sean Burke and there likely won’t be a reunion with old friend Sean Newcomb, so the pitching matchup could be something manageable for Atlanta. Still, the Braves are going to have to be on their toes for this quick layover game in Chicago.
Thursday, August 20 at 2:10 p.m. ET (BravesVision)
August 21-23: Milwaukee Brewers
Current Record: 76-48 Projected Record: 96-66
Speaking of that June swoon for the Braves, they figured out a way to break out of that slump for at least a weekend when they managed to defend home turf in a three-game series win over the current best team in baseball. That alone is reason enough to believe that the Braves have what it takes to repeat the task and maybe take another series off of Milwaukee in the return leg of the matchup.
With that being said, the Brewers are coming into this week flying high after they went into Dodger Stadium and essentially asserted themselves as the current top dogs in the NL after taking three out of four from Los Angeles on the road. Granted, the Dodgers have been in an extended swoon of their own but that takes nothing away from the fact that this essentially confirmed that the Brewers are where they’re at in the standings for a very good reason.
That reason includes Jacob Misiorowski, who the Braves will likely have to deal with once again during this series. Again, he’s human and the Braves proved that when they managed to hang an L on Milwaukee while he was on the mound against them back in Cobb County. He’s still a great pitcher but we haven’t quite seen him reach the heights lately that he did right before facing the Braves, which is when he dominated the Phillies in a one-hit, complete game shutout with 15 strikeouts. Still, I can’t say that anybody particularly looks forward to facing The Miz right now and he’s coming off of a start in Los Angeles where he went six innings and only gave up one run, so he’s clearly still extremely tough to deal with.
Milwaukee will also be looking forward to getting some good injury news this week, as Sal Frelick could be back and Brice Turang should be getting over some knee pain that’s kept him day-to-day recently. Turang in particular has been having a fantastic season so far (Frelick, not so much) and he’s been leading the way with Jake Bauers, Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell and Andrew Vaughn not too far behind in terms of plate production. Milwaukee’s lineup hasn’t really been all that dominant since they last saw the Braves but their pitching staff has been absolutely nails since then. The Brewers as a staff are sitting on an 86 ERA- (3.56 ERA) and an 88 FIP- (3.72 FIP) since they got done with the Braves and that seems like an easy indicator that runs could be coming at a premium during this series.
Boy, ESPN really lucked out by getting these two for the Little League Classic, right?
Friday, August 21 at 4:10 p.m. ET (BravesVision) Saturday, August 22 at 2:10 p.m. ET (BravesVision) Sunday, August 23 at 7:10 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Los Angeles, CA - August 16, 2026: Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) reacts to hitting a foul ball during the ninth inning of an MLB game against the Milwaukee Brewers at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium on Sunday, Aug. 16, 2026 in Los Angeles, CA. (Eric Thayer / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)
The Dodgers technically had a winning week, but did so in such underwhelming fashion thanks to an offense that hasn’t pulled its weight for nearly two months.
Los Angeles scored six and five runs in the first two games of their sweep of the last-place Kansas City Royals, needing a 10th inning on Tuesday to get the fifth run across. The Dodgers topped out at four runs for the rest of the week, including in dropping three of four games to the best-in-NL Milwaukee Brewers.
The Dodgers averaged under four runs per game last week, and they’ve averaged just 3.33 runs through 15 games in August. It’s no wonder they are just 5-10 during that time. The offense has been similarly underwhelming dating all the way back to July 1, averaging just 397 runs per game since then, 22nd in MLB, with a 91 wRC+ that ranks 22nd.
The starting pitching was perfectly fine and downright stable last week, with six starts of at least six innings and a collective 3.05 ERA. The only start under six innings was on Monday by Tarik Skubal, who said Sunday of his three starts with the Dodgers, “It’s not acceptable, it’s not the standard of what I think I’m capable of in this league. I just need to be better.”
The Dodgers might have gotten out of the week at 5-2 and a series split with the Brewers — which would have also secured the season series with Milwaukee and a potential tiebreaker — were it not for Edwin Díaz’s blown save on Thursday.
But they simply aren’t playing well enough and aren’t scoring enough runs to give them any margin of error. They’ve got six more weeks to figure that out or else they might have more free time in October than they planned.
The problem is every Dodgers game is close, except when they get blown out. On the season the Dodgers have 27 blowout wins, victories with a margin of at least five runs, only one fewer than the Chicago Cubs for most in MLB. But only one of those blowout wins have come since July 3. During that time, all 29 other MLB teams have multiple such wins, with an average of five per team other than the one paltry victory in the last 37 games for the Dodgers, who have lost five blowouts during that span.
Great teams blow out other teams. The Dodgers haven’t been great in nearly two months. At 18-21 since the start of July, they haven’t even been good.
Kudos as well to Mookie Betts, who homered twice, doubled twice, and led the team with eight hits.
Pitcher of the week
Blake Snell returned after three months on the injured list and was much better than expected right out of the gate, with 10 strikeouts in six innings while allowing just one run. If you’re looking for potential positives heading into October, having a healthy Snell thriving is near the top of the wish list.
Week 21 results
4-3 record 25 runs scored (3.57 per game) 27 runs allowed (3.86 per game) .465 pythagorean win percentage
Year to date
74-51 record 616 runs scored (4.93 per game) 480 runs allowed (3.84 per game) .612 pythagorean win percentage (77-48)
Miscellany
Full game a long time coming: After being sidelined for most of the previous two seasons while battling cancer and a debilitating back injury, Charley Steiner has enjoyed a pleasant return to the Dodgers radio booth this season. He started out calling the first game of each home series, and has occasionally increased to every other day on some homestands. In the early part of the season, Steiner would call the first three innings of the game before gradually increasing to six innings for the last five weeks or so. But on Saturday against the Brewers, Steiner called the entire game, all nine innings. As Steiner gleefully shared before the game, this was his first full game in the booth since the 2023 NLDS. To date, Steiner has called 25 home games this season. Here’s to as many more as his health will allow.
Opportunistic running: Shohei Ohtani singled in the seventh inning on Monday night against Kansas City, then stole second with Andy Pages at the plate, the first steal for Ohtani since May 16, then scored the winning run on Freddie Freeman’s single. Ohtani went 67 games in between stolen bases, and he only attempted one steal in the 62 games leading up to Monday’s swipe, understandable he’s been dealing with left knee inflammation since June that’s kept him off the mound since July 3.
New ‘Legend’ welcomed: On Saturday, outfielder Reggie Smith was inducted into the Legends of Dodger Baseball. The switch-hitting, seven-time All-Star won three pennants in Los Angeles and finished fourth in National League MVP voting in his first two full years with the Dodgers. “There’s nothing he couldn’t do on a baseball field,” Dusty Baker said of Smith during the ceremony.
aka the regular Jonathan Hernández and Charlie Barnes section
Monday: Right-hander Seth Halvorsen was called up to make his Dodgers debut, and Charlie Barnes was called back up. Kyle Hurt was optioned and Jonathan Hernández was designated for assignment.
Tuesday: Three months after left elbow surgery, Blake Snell was activated off the 60-day injured list. Barnes was optioned, and Blake Treinen was moved to the 60-day injured list.
Wednesday: Landon Knackwas called up, and Halvorsen was optioned.
The Dodgers run the Corey Dickerson gauntlet, going back on the road briefly to Coors Field to finish their 13 game days in a row, then return home for an equally-short homestand, hosting the Pittsburgh Pirates next weekend. Saturday’s game is another exclusive Fox telecast recently added to the network’s schedule.
Happy Monday! It's a lighter slate today, but there's still a whole lot to attack.
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB player propsfor Aug. 17, including why I expect Bobby Witt Jr. to go nuclear.
Best MLB player props today
Player
Pick
Odds
Tomoyuki Sugano
Under 3.5 strikeouts
-173
Shota Imanaga
Over 2.5 earned runs
+125
Bobby Witt Jr.
Over 1.5 total bases
-119
Tomoyuki Sugano Under 3.5 strikeouts (-173)
Before you ball up that fist after seeing this price, just know you can take the Under 2.5 at plus-money, or pair this prop with one of the others listed in this article.
However, Colorado Rockies right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano enters with the lowest matchup strikeout rate on Batters-Box. He's stayed Under this prop 63% of the time in 19 poorly-rated matchups. Sugano has also stayed Under this number in his last six poorly-rated strikeout ratings.
The Los Angeles Dodgers own the fourth-lowest road strikeout rate at just 20.7%. Sugano owns just a 13.33% strikeout rate inside Coors Field.
The Dodgers need to get back on track, and Sugano is the punching bag they need. Just don't take this any higher than it is.
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: SNLA, COLR
Shota Imanaga Over 2.5 earned runs (+125)
Chicago Cubs left-hander Shota Imanaga enters Monday drawing one of the highest-rated lineups on the slate. The Chicago White Sox have the third-highest-rated offense on the day, according to Batters-Box's current-season dataset, which features four elite-rated hitters.
The White Sox have started to heat back up offensively following a big weekend in Detroit. Over their last six games, they own a 148 wRC+, .385 wOBA and .888 OPS.
Imanaga's last three starts also feature some underlying metrics the White Sox could look to exploit this evening. For starters, he is allowing a nearly 15% barrel rate and an 81.6% elevation rate, while opposing hitters own a .527 xSLG.
This feels like a strong spot for the White Sox to make another statement against the North Siders.
Playable down to +110, or take the White Sox first five team total Over 1.5 at -130 range.
Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
Where to watch: CHSN, Marquee
Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (-119)
The second-highest-rated hitter on the day over at Batters-Box happens to be the heart and soul of Kansas City, Mr. Bobby Witt Jr. The Kansas City Royals star covers nearly 80% of Athletics right-hander Mason Barnett's pitch mix.
In nearly 30 elite ratings at home, Witt Jr. surpasses this prop over 55% of the time, and has done so in seven of his last 10 elite ratings at home.
Across his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, the Royals shortstop sports a .333 BA, .519 SLG, .919 OPS, and 52.25% hard-hit rate.
On the other side, Barnett has been getting crushed by right-handed hitters, allowing a 23.5% barrel rate and 23.5% ground-ball rate, while they own a .360 xBA, .811 xSLG, and .412 xwOBA.
At -119, this price is worth paying. Take this down to -130.
Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: ROYL, NBCSCA
Colby Marchio's 2026 Transparency Record
Prop picks: 407-785, -10.5 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - AUGUST 10: Kodai Senga #34 of the New York Mets reacts after their 8-5 win over the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on August 10, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Welcome back to Monday Stat Party, a weekly series showcasing some of the most curious and nostalgia-inducing statistical developments from the past week of Mets baseball. What unites each entry is the sense of intrigue which they aim to spark, and the unbridled love of the game’s anomalies from which they arise. Without further ado, let the stat party begin.
MONDAY
The Mets scored five runs in an inning for the tenth time this season. Three of those instances have come against the Braves (July 5, July 27, August 10). It was the first time the Mets scored five runs in the first inning of a game since Opening Day against Paul Skenes and the Pirates.
Brett Baty’s grand slam was the first of his career, and his first home run in Atlanta since he homered in his first big-league at-bat on August 17, 2022.
TUESDAY
Nolan McLean began his outing with four no-hit innings for the third time this season, having previously done so on April 3 in San Francisco and April 21 against the Twins.
The Mets suffered their thirteenth shutout loss of the season, tying them with the Pirates for the most of any team in the majors.
The Mets recorded seven outs on batted balls of 100+ mph, tied for their second-most in a game this season behind a loss to the Cubs at Wrigley Field on April 19 in which they hit eight.
WEDNESDAY
Zac Thornton became the first Mets pitcher with at least five quality starts in their first eight career games since Jacob deGrom. The only other Mets debuting since 2000 to accomplish that feat were Dillon Gee and Matt Harvey.
Thornton’s 2.78 ERA through eight career games is the 10th-best among Mets pitchers with a minimum of five innings per outing, behind: Nolan McLean (2.06), Nolan Ryan (2.09), Rick Aguilera (2.14), Masato Yoshii (2.25), Robert Gsellman (2.42), Tom Seaver (2.50), Jim McAndrew (2.53), Jason Jacome (2.67), and Tylor Megill (2.68).
FRIDAY
The Mets won the series-opener against the Nationals at Citi Field. They have now won seven straight series-openers against the Nats at home, and 10 of their last 11.
SATURDAY
The Mets saw 51 pitches in the first inning from the Nationals. That’s the most pitches they’ve seen in the first inning of a game since June 16, 1989, in Philadelphia, when they scored eight runs on 52 pitches against Phillies starter Bruce Ruffin. They blew the lead and trailed 10-9 three innings later in that game, but eventually came back to win 15-11. Since 1969, there was only one other time the Mets had pulled off a 51-pitch first inning, and it was one day shy of exactly 38 years earlier, on August 16, 1988, in San Francisco, when they scored nine runs in the first.
Francisco Lindor recorded his seventh walk-off plate appearanceas a Met, tying him for fifth-most in franchise history behind Wilmer Flores (10), David Wright (9), Pete Alonso (9), and Kevin McReynolds (8).
Lindor’s walk-off single marked his 228th RBI at Citi Field, tying him with Brandon Nimmo for 2nd-most in the ballpark’s history behind Pete Alonso (350).
Carson Benge’s 98.1-mph throw to the plate was the 3rd-fastest outfield assist by a Mets player in the Statcast era (since 2015), trailing only a pair of other throws made by Benge earlier this season. (source: Sarah Langs on X)
Francisco Alvarez’s game-tying double was his 161st RBI as a catcher, moving him into sixth place in franchise history behind Mike Piazza (595), Todd Hundley (383), Jerry Grote (350), Gary Carter (333), and John Stearns (287).
Jefry Yan became the sixth Mets rookie to earn a win this season, along with Nolan McLean, Zac Thornton, Jonah Tong, Chayce McDermott, and Jonathan Pintaro. That ties them with the Twins and Angels for the most rookies on a team to earn a win this season. It also ties them for the fifth-most in franchise history, behind 1995 (9), 1983 (8), 1965 (7), and 2015 (7).
SUNDAY
Christian Scott struck out five or more batters for a 10th consecutive outing. He is one of only eight MLB pitchers with an active streak that long, along with Dylan Cease (30), Jacob Misiorowksi (23), Cam Schlittler (13), Jesús Luzardo (12), Gerrit Cole (11), Tarik Skubal (11), and Gavin Williams (10).
Carson Benge recorded his seventh assist of the season in right field, the fourth-most behind Wilyer Abreu (12), Jordan Walker (8), and Cam Smith (8).
After entering the week with zero career saves, Kodai Senga became the second Japanese-born player in MLB history to record a save in three consecutive appearances, joining Koji Uehera.
Bo Bichette recorded his 11th three-hit game of the season, tied for seventh-most in MLB behind Luis Arraez (14), Yordan Alvarez (13), Otto Lopez (13), Yandy Díaz (12), Michael Harris II (12), and Gunnar Henderson (12).
With a fourth-inning single, Jared Young extended his hitting streak to six games, marking the longest single-season hitting streak of his career.
Luis Torrens hit his fourth home run in seven games, something he hadn’t done since July 4, 2021, with the Mariners. He’s the first Mets catcher to do it since Francisco Alvarez on July 18, 2023.
The Mets have now swept the Nationals at Citi Field seven times in their past 13 series in New York, dating back to August 10-12, 2021.
Miscellaneous Mets stat of the week:
In the expansion era (since 1961), only 10 teams have won at least two-thirds of their games in a season, excluding the shortened 2020 season:
The Mets and Yankees are the only two franchises to have a team on this list and to have eliminated a team on this list in the playoffs (the Mets defeated the 1970 Orioles in the World Series, while the Yankees defeated the 2001 Mariners in the ALCS).
DENVER, COLORADO - JULY 4: Sean Sullivan #45 of the Colorado Rockies pitches in the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at Coors Field on July 4, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Let’s keep the mid-season 2026 Purple Row Prospects (PuRPs) list reveal rolling! Today are prospects 25-21. As a reminder, in this edition of the PuRPs poll, 29 qualifying ballots were cast, with 30 points granted for a first place vote, 29 for second, etc.
For each player on the PuRPs list, I’ll include a link to individual stats and contract status (via Baseball-Reference), PuRPs voting stats, a note on the 2026 season to date, and a scouting report from a national prospect writer where possible. For what it’s worth, I’ll also include where I put each player on my personal ballot. All ages are as of the date the article is posted.
25. Andy Perez (168 points, 20 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: NR— High Ballot 14, Mode Ballot 26, 27
How did he enter the organization?
2021 International Free Agent, Cuba
Why did he make the PuRPs list?
Perez is an athletic up-the-middle player with decent speed and good contact ability in a large frame (likely 6’4”, 210 pounds). The 22-year-old lefty-hitting, righty-throwing shortstop was an international free agent out of Cuba, signing in 2021 for $300k. After two seasons in the DSL, Perez skipped the Complex League in 2023 and was assigned directly to Low-A Fresno, where he was overmatched by older pitching (63 wRC+).
In 2024, Perez was returned to Fresno and his batting numbers progressed to a league-average level (100 wRC+). Perez got a late season look with High-A Spokane as well, where he was below league average in 66 PA (54 wRC+) as a 20-year-old. In 2025, Perez served as the shortstop starter for Spokane, committing 17 errors in 113 games, but offensively it was a struggle again. In 483 plate appearances, Perez hit .271/.314/.389 with 19 steals in 23 attempts and hit seven homers among his 33 extra-base hits, totaling a 83 wRC+.
This year, Perez has been the primary shortstop at Double-A Hartford, where he is 1.7 years younger than league average. Despite the step up in level, Perez has had a stronger year at the plate with Hartford, hitting .301/.332/.413 with seven homers and 23 steals in 459 plate appearances, which is a near league average 96 wRC+. Perez has put the ball in play quite a bit, walking in only 4.4% of plate appearances and striking out in 14.6% of them while facing a younger pitcher in only nine of his plate appearances. At shortstop, Perez has committed 13 errors in 92 games. The overall numbers aren’t super impressive, but Perez’s ability to hang in Double-A at a younger age at a middle infield slot is notable.
Here’s some video of Perez in 2024 with Fresno, including slo mo swing looks at the end:
Perez and Dyan Jorge entered the organization months apart with similar profiles as glove-first Cuban shortstops. They have progressed, if not quite in lockstep, then at least with some overlap since. But while Jorge had bigger amateur hype, it’s Perez who has quietly developed into the intriguing middle-of-the-diamond prospect.
Perez has grown into his large and lean frame very slowly. Even with somewhat long levers and just average bat speed, he has great feel for contact and has some of the best spin recognition I’ve encountered in a player his age. It’s a see-ball, hit-ball approach, though, and his 62% swing rate was the highest in the system among players who are actually prospects; for an idea of what that tends to look like, Ezequiel Tovar is in a similar territory and he’s run a 4.1% career walk rate in the majors. Tovar has a lot more power, however, as Perez’s remains below-average, and unless he gets significantly stronger, he looks like he’s going to tap into weak outs on pitches he’d be better off leaving. Better discernment or strength gains are useful for anyone, but could have an exponential effect in this case; perhaps new voices in Colorado’s player dev group can unlock something here.
Defensively, Perez’s work with the glove should get him to the big leagues. He’s a rangy defender with a powerful and accurate arm and a very quick release given the first two parts of this sentence. He’s played around the diamond a bit to accommodate other shortstops — including Jorge, who he’s long since passed defensively — and that experience should serve him well in a utility role. If you’re feeling optimistic this spring, Perez’s frame and athleticism give him latent everyday upside in a way that’s unusual for a guy who has consistently posted pedestrian numbers in the box.
Ever since signing, Perez has shown a penchant for putting the ball in play from the left side of the plate. He very rarely swings and misses, but he can be a victim of his own success as his chase rates remain very high. He has added strength to his 6-foot-3 frame, which helped him get to some more extra-base authority, but the power some projected hasn’t shown up consistently, even with his success this year with Hartford.
Perez can steal a base even though he possesses just average speed, and he moves very well defensively, especially given his size. He might have the range, instincts and arm to stick at shortstop long-term, though he’s also seen some time at second and third should he need to fill a utility-type role in the future. He’s still only 22, so there’s time for him to refine his swing decisions, get to more impact and grow into a regular role in one spot in the future.
When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?
Perez was 23rd on my list as a 40 FV player because big-framed shortstops who can stick at the position with both power potential and elite contact ability don’t grow on trees, even though it hasn’t come together yet for him. If that does happen, Perez would be more of an impact big leaguer than many others ahead of him on the list. Perez will be Rule 5 eligible for the second time this off-season and he’s going to be in contention to get protected with the season he’s had. If he’s back in the organization next year, Perez will probably be in the Double-A/Triple-A mix with a 2027 debut possible as a reserve.
24. Angel Jimenez (184 points, 12 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: NR — High Ballot 10, Mode Ballot 18
How did he enter the organization?
2019 International Free Agent, Venezuela
Why did he make the PuRPs list?
Jimenez didn’t exactly come out of nowhere this year, but you would be forgiven if you forgot his existence. The 23-year-old right-handed pitcher signed out of Venezuela all the way back in July of 2019 for $325k but due to the pandemic in 2020 and arm issues in 2021, Jimenez didn’t throw a pitch in affiliated game until 2022. After a decent debut in the Dominican Summer League, Jimenez had strong results stateside with the Arizona Complex League team in 2023 but lost another season in 2024 to injuries. By the time Jimenez made his full season ball debut in 2025, he’d already been Rule 5 eligible.
In 2025, Jimenez began back at the Complex level with seven starts before moving up to Low-A Fresno in late June for ten more starts to end the year. In all, Jimenez threw 60.2 innings with a 4.01 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 rate, and 3.7 BB/9 rate. That wasn’t enough to get him a 40-man roster placement, but over the off-season Jimenez found a change-up that put him on scouting radars. In 2026, Jimenez returned to Fresno, where he was league-average age even after seven years of professional baseball.
Jimenez started 14 games with Fresno, throwing 57.1 innings with a 4.40 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 11.8 K/9 rate, and 3.3 BB/9 rate, including two quality starts. After going on the shelf for a couple weeks and a two start rehab stint with the Complex League, Jimenez got his first look with High-A Spokane in mid-July and has made four starts there. In 13 innings (he hasn’t gone more than four innings in a High-A start yet), Jimenez has allowed 10 runs on 13 hits and seven walks with 16 strikeouts. Regardless of results, it’s been good to see Jimenez roughly match his entire professional innings total from 2019-2023 in 2026 alone.
Jimenez is a loose and projectable righty who signed out of Venezuela back in 2019, but the pandemic and a series of injuries have limited him to 139.1 innings in pro ball. He dials it up into the upper 90s without much obvious effort, and has the athleticism and body control to project average control and a future in the rotation. Jimenez’s fastball shape isn’t great, but he throws hard enough — at least early in outings; his velocity tended to tail off toward the end of his outings last year — to get away with it.
After working with mostly average secondaries last summer, Jimenez showed up to camp with a plus sinking changeup, which is thrown with late action and good arm speed. His breaking balls are slurvy and can run together, but his best flash average; he has enough feel for spin to project here, and his relatively short track record gives me hope that time and reps will work their magic. He’s an exciting, arrow up arm, one who could find himself in the mix for the Top 100 someday if he can sharpen the slider, hold his stuff deeper into games, and leave the injury bug in his rear view mirror.
While he’s already 23, Jimenez is still more about projection and arm strength than feel for pitching due to all the time he’s missed. There’s plenty of velocity from his right arm, with a fastball that sits around 97 mph and touches 99. It plays down a bit because it can come in too straight and gets hit, with some concerns about its future playability lingering. He does have a full array of secondary offerings, with his sinking changeup ahead of his two breaking balls, but he does display decent feel to spin.
There’s a chance Jimenez could start long term because he does a nice job of repeating his delivery and throwing a good amount of strikes, though there’s plenty of work to be done in terms of maintaining his stuff deep into starts and in refining his breaking stuff and heater.
When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?
Unlike some others on this list, Jimenez doesn’t just face Rule 5 eligibility at year’s end — he’ll be a minor league free agent if the Rockies don’t add him to their 40-man roster this off-season (Yujanyer Herrera is in the same boat). That creates a sense of urgency for the Rockies to see what they’ve got in Jimenez. Right now, he appears to be a talented pitcher with a starter profile who probably needs two more years in the minor leagues.
If he got those years with the Rockies, he’d be occupying a 40-man roster spot and would burn two of his option years. Is Jimenez worth the trouble? Would he re-sign on a minor league deal in the off-season? I don’t know the answer, but Jimenez is a 40+ FV player for me, ranking 15th on my list because he’s got two potential plus pitches with two other decent secondaries and the Rockies need more of those kinds of players.
23. Max Belyeu (208 points, 20 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: 15— High Ballot 12, Mode Ballot 22
How did he enter the organization?
2025 Competitive Balance Round B, University of Texas
Why did he make the PuRPs list?
Belyeu (pronounced like the bear in The Jungle Book) was Colorado’s third pick of the 2025 draft, going 74th overall and signing for a slot bonus of $1.11 million. Rockies fans will naturally make comparisons between Belyeu and fellow Texas hit-over-power outfielder, Rockies draftee (in 2024’s second round), and PuRP Jared Thomas. The 6’2” 22-year-old lefty hitting, righty throwing Belyeu handled right field for Texas in 2024 while Thomas (who is only five months older than Belyeu but was old enough to be a draft-eligible sophomore) took first base and center field. Belyeu broke out in a big way (along with Thomas) in 2024, winning the Big 12 Player of the Year award with a .329/.423/.667 batting line in 249 plate appearances which included 18 homers among his 34 extra-base hits (142 wRC+).
In 2025, Belyeu moved along with Texas to the tougher SEC as a potential first-round draft pick. He started the season well, but suffered a fractured left thumb in March while diving for a ball in the outfield that limited him to only 156 plate appearances and likely impacted his power output. Belyeu’s .303/.410/.576 line with nine homers among his 17 extra-base hits was still good for a 117 wRC+, but he also struck out over a quarter of the time (up from 17% in 2024) and struggled with chasing out of the zone and spin. Those warts were enough to make him available for the Rockies between the second and third rounds of the draft.
After the draft, the Rockies assigned Belyeu straight to High-A Spokane. Belyeu started strong (.318/.423/.727 with three homers in his first 26 plate appearances) but he went cold down the stretch, including a 1-20 mark with nine strikeouts in September. In 21 total games, Belyeu hit just .150/.244/.300 with four homers and three steals (42 wRC+) while striking out in 36% of plate appearances (and walking in 10% of them).
In 2026, Belyeu returned to Spokane, where he is about six months younger than league average. After a slower start, Belyeu was having a torrid June (.349/.434/.773 with eight homers in 17 games) before he tore a tendon in his finger that ended his season. In total, Belyeu hit .244/.348/.489 with 12 homers among his 26 extra-base hits in 258 plate appearances, good for a 109 wRC+. Based on the trajectory of his June, I’d say that without the injury, his full season total was headed a good bit better than that.
Belyeu walked in nearly 11% of plate appearances but strikeouts remained a big problem, consisting of 32% of his plate appearances. He crushed right-handed pitching (.923 OPS) and struggled against southpaws (.556 OPS) In the field, Belyeu spent time in all three outfield positions, though he was most often in right field, making nine outfield assists and committing one error.
And here are some highlights from Belyeu’s draft year with Texas:
Belyeu is a strong, physically developed 6-foot-2, 215-pound lefthanded hitter with a compact swing and quick hands. He has an aggressive approach at the plate and is prone to chasing pitches. Belyeu’s plate discipline showed steady improvement throughout his college career but it regressed dramatically in his pro debut. He possesses above-average raw power and projects to hit 20–25 home runs with further refinement.
Belyeu’s routes in the outfield can get scenic at times, but with reps he has a chance to be an above-average defender in an outfield corner. His arm is his loudest tool and is a plus weapon with great carry and accuracy that should leave baserunners questioning themselves when taking an extra bag.
Belyeu got a boost with the Rockies when one of his college coaches, a guy named Troy Tulowitzki, went to bat for him (pun intended), leading Colorado to take him in the second round in last year’s draft. He offers 25+ homer upside with the potential for plus defense in an outfield corner, but his approach is really suspect with a lot of chase and whiff, including too much of a tendency to give away at-bats entirely. He missed about 20 games of his college season with a thumb injury, and then missed fall instructional league with a hamstring injury. It’s a lot to ask of a player to overhaul his swing decisions, making Belyeu a very high-risk/high-reward prospect.
While Belyeu isn’t a total free swinger, he did get more aggressive during his junior year, and his strikeout rate did climb, something that continued during his stint with Spokane after signing. The left-handed hitter has some strike-zone awareness and there’s damage in there, with the ability to drive the ball to all fields, but he’s going to have to work to try not to do too much at the plate, which takes him out of his approach. The Rockies’ new hitting group values contact and will work with him to be a hitter first.
Belyeu is a solid athlete with decent speed and should be able to handle a corner outfield spot capably, with a plus arm that fits in right field. He plays with intensity, sometimes being too hard on himself, and he’ll get to show what he can really do over a full, healthy season.
It’s possible that the [2025 thumb] injury, combined with the start-stop-go-pause-okay-let’s-play-again nature of Belyeu’s 2025 season destroyed his rhythm at the plate in a way that made his pro debut unrepresentative of what he’ll look like under normal circumstances. All parties should hope so. Visually, he looked lost and unbalanced in Spokane, and took some of the most bizarrely bad swings I’ve encountered in a high-level college prospect. A cursory review of the tape shows him swinging at fastballs above his helmet and in the dirt, and lunging at all manner of soft stuff, all while leaving much more hittable pitches aside. The stats bear this out, too. It was a relatively small sample, but the gap between his overall swing rate (49%, which is normal) and his swing rate on balls in the heart of the plate (59%, which is 20 grade) is alarming and strange in equal measure. His chase rate also exploded with two strikes, raising additional questions about his zone control and pitch recognition.
Athletically at least, there’s plenty to like. Belyeu has above-average bat speed, a chance for above-average power, and, strangely for someone with a huge strikeout rate, a flat and manipulable bat path. He’s also a decent runner and projects to be just fine in a corner. That hit tool, though. As much as I want to give him a pass for 2025, the numbers and the look are just too concerning to do anything other than stick him down here and hope last season was a fever dream.
When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?
I think it’s not too unreasonable to compare Thomas and Belyeu as prospects given the similarity in their provenance, age, and position. Thomas is faster, makes better swing decisions that gets his raw power into games more, and can play both center field and first base. Meanwhile, Belyeu has a better contact tool (though he has struck out more as a professional), raw power, and outfield arm that is well suited for right field.
I prefer Thomas as a prospect because the profile has already worked against Double-A pitching and Belyeu’s issues with spin are concerning, but Belyeu is comfortably a 40 FV player who I ranked 26th on my ballot. Scouts seem to be higher on Belyeu than the electorate, so hopefully he will show why in a bigger professional sample size next year, probably in Double-A Hartford.
2025 Second Round, University of Southern Mississippi
Why did he make the PuRPs list?
Middleton became the highest-ever drafted pitcher for Southern Mississippi when the Rockies took him 45th overall in the 2025 draft (Middleton was 41st in MLB Pipeline’s draft rankings), signing the 22-year-old right-hander to a $2.072 million bonus that was $100k under slot. Middleton doesn’t possess ideal size for a modern day hurler (he’s only 6’0”), but his repertoire includes a good three pitch mix (fastball, slider, change) that he throws for strikes. He throws from a three-quarter slot with a quick arm action, a mid-90s fastball, a late-breaking slider that gets whiffs, and a good change-up to keep lefties honest.
After two relatively unimpressive college seasons as a reliever, Middleton’s stuff took a big step forward in 2025 and he moved into an ace starter’s role. In 16 starts, Middleton averaged nearly 6.2 innings per outing (105.1 total) against less acclaimed competition in the Sun Belt conference. Middleton’s 2.31 ERA, 10.4 K/9 rate, and 2.1 BB/9 rate were good, but it was his sterling 0.85 WHIP (ranking second in Division I) that was especially noteworthy.
As a professional, Middleton didn’t debut until this spring with Low-A Fresno, where he is league-average age. Middleton made five starts in April before requiring internal brace surgery on his right elbow (which happened in June or July) that ended his season at just 20 innings pitched. Notably the recovery time for that procedure (when all goes well) is closer to 6-9 months rather than 12-18 months for Tommy John surgery.
In the innings he pitched before the injury, Middleton had a 4.95 ERA with a 1.70 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 rate, and 5.9 BB/9 rate. He was crushed by lefties (1.212 OPS against) in 44 plate appearances while he handled right-handers well (.538 OPS against in 49 plate appearances).
Here’s video of Middleton in action last March with USM courtesy of Kyler Peterson, including some slo-mo looks at his delivery and release for his arsenal in the last couple minutes:
Middleton is a four-pitch guy who’s up to 97 on the heater, lacking a clear out-pitch in the mix but mitigating that with plus control and a good delivery he repeats well. I noted at the draft that he was a good candidate for the Rockies, who now have their own pitching lab, to try to work with on pitch design, as his slider seems like it could be sharper and maybe become that 60 in the quiver to help him miss more bats. As is, he’s a back-end starter who should get to Double A quickly.
Middleton is an undersized right-hander who has the three-pitch mix to make a go as a starter. He can run his fastball up to 97 mph, sitting in the 93-95 mph range, and it can play above its velocity at times with his ability to both sink it or throw it with carry up in the zone. It gets a fair amount of miss and chase, but not nearly as much as his secondary offerings. His upper-80s slider has two-plane depth and is sometimes cutter-ish. Both that and his 86-88 mph tumbling and fading changeup miss a ton of bats both in and out of the zone.
The six-foot Middleton isn’t the most physical hurler, but he’s athletic, repeats his delivery well and showed a vastly improved ability to find the zone compared to his time in the Southern Miss bullpen. The Rockies love that he pitches with a chip on his shoulder and is super-competitive, knowing that he’s going to hate whatever workload limitations they put on him.
FanGraphs grades Middleton as a 40 FV player (99th in the draft class) and ranks him 31st in the system with a 60 future grade on the changeup:
Middleton had a huge junior year at Southern Miss, where he moved into the rotation and posted a 2.31 ERA while striking out more than 10 per nine. The undersized righty was a popup guy, and a little extra velo down the stretch may have earned him a bunch of money, as he signed for a little more than $2 million.
Changeup aside, Middleton’s stuff looked fringy this spring. His fastball sits 93-95 without bat-missing shape, and he’ll likely need to air it out in short stints to reach higher than that over the long haul. He’s added a curve and flashes an above-average slider, though neither looks like an out pitch. He has good arm speed on the change, and the sink and fade he generates gives him a legitimate weapon for lefties. It’s the pitch mix and repertoire depth of a starter, and a backend starter outcome is in play. Middleton’s stature raises durability concerns, and his somewhat bland blend of stuff and command suggests that the second and third trips through the order could get ugly. For those reasons, a middle relief outcome seems most likely.
When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?
Middleton’s elevator pitch is that he is a high-probability starting pitcher with some mid-rotation projection. That profile has taken a hit with the injury, which is why I dropped him a half grade to a 40 FV player, 22nd on my list. Middleton’s 2027 is in question as he recovers from surgery. I anticipate that, even if he does return during the season, that the Rockies will ease him back in Fresno, though a High-A Spokane assignment by the end the season could happen as well.
21. Sean Sullivan (217 points, 20 ballots) — Preseason Ranking: 8 — High Ballot 6, Mode Ballot 22
How did he enter the organization?
2023 Second Round, Wake Forest University
Why did he make the PuRPs list?
Despite a professional career that has been marred by injuries and an accompanying loss in velocity (sitting only in the mid-80s at points), Sullivan has made his bones by getting upper-minors hitters out — a lot of them via strikeout. Sullivan relies mostly on his fastball which despite the lower velocity is an effective pitch due to a low, wide release angle that gives it great carry up in the zone and the elite extension he gets that allows the velocity to play up. He pairs that offering with a slider and change-up, but the fastball and excellent command are the main separators.
The 6’4”, 24-year-old lefty pitcher was dominant at Wake Forest, pitching 69.2 innings with with a 2.45 ERA, 0.92 WHIP (fourth-best in Division 1), a 14.3 K/9 rate (second-best), and a 2.7 BB/9 rate as the Demon Deacons made it all the way to the College World Series semi-finals. Sullivan (whose delivery reminded the Rockies of Kyle Freeland) rode those numbers to a $1.7 million bonus from the Rockies that was about $187k below slot.
In High-A Spokane in 2024, Sullivan threw 83.1 innings in 14 starts with a 2.16 ERA (2.79 xFIP), 0.84 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 rate, and a minuscule 0.9 BB/9 rate (including a nine-inning complete game). That was enough in the High-A Northwest League to receive their Pitcher of the Year award even though the Rockies promoted Sullivan in August to Double-A Hartford. Sullivan maintained his excellent run prevention against Eastern League hitters, throwing 32 innings across seven starts with a 1.97 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP, a strong achievement for one of the younger pitchers in Double-A (the batter was older than him 80% of the time).
Recovery related to an offseason hip labrum surgery delayed Sullivan’s 2025 debut back at Hartford (where he was 2.7 years younger than average) to mid-May. In 18 starts and 97 1/3 innings with Hartford, Sullivan posted a 3.14 ERA (3.39 xFIP), 1.09 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 rate, and 2.2 BB/9 rate. Those numbers were trending better before Sullivan went to the IL briefly in August and was hit hard in his final four starts of the year (allowing 13 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings) after returning. Seven of Sullivan’s Double-A starts were quality starts, while Sullivan allowed just a .611 OPS to opposing hitters (with basically no platoon splits).
That was enough for Sullivan to get an invite to Major League spring training this year by the Rockies. He was assigned to Triple-A Albuquerque, where in a tough pitching environment the results took a step back. In 11 starts (three of them quality starts), Sullivan threw 54.2 innings with a 5.60 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 rate, and an uncharacteristic for him 3.3 BB/9 rate. The Rockies called up Sullivan for his Major League debut in mid-June against the A’s, where he threw three scoreless innings despite being “sick as a dog” beforehand). Unfortunately, Sullivan’s next four starts with the Rockies didn’t go so hot as he allowed five homers en route to a MLB line so far of an 8.87 ERA, 2.02 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 rate, and 4.4 BB/9 rate in 22 1/3 innings (-0.4 rWAR, -0.1 fWAR). Sullivan went on the minor league IL in late July with left shoulder inflammation (no word on the severity yet).
Here’s some video of Sullivan striking out a bunch of dudes in 2025, many of them swinging:
What do the scouts say?
Keith Law of the Athletic ranked Sullivan 7th in the system in February:
Sullivan had hip labrum surgery after the 2024 season and started the 2025 season about six weeks late, pitching well enough in Double A even though his fastball wasn’t 100 percent to where it was beforehand. Sullivan has never thrown hard; at his best, his fastball is 89-92 but the pitch misses bats thanks to a very low release point, over seven feet of extension (OK, that hurts my hip just thinking about it) and excellent ride on the pitch. He’s got an above-average slider with good tilt and an average changeup, going right after hitters like he’s throwing 98. Sullivan had a lot of outings last year where he was sitting in the upper 80s, and that won’t play, but if he’s even just 89-92 again, I think he’ll be a back-end starter. Side note: I really like watching this guy pitch.
Sullivan never had a big fastball, but it took another hit in 2025 as he was coming back from hip labrum surgery. The Rockies had held him back until early May to let him build back up, but he never quite got there. Somewhat amazingly, he found success in Double-A with a fastball that averaged around 86-87 mph and scraped 90 mph, using a combination of deception, angle and up-slope movement to the pitch to get outs. His upper-70s changeup is probably his best offering and while his mid-to-upper 70s slider can be slurvy, he manipulates the velocity and shape of it and it missed a fair amount of bats last year.
While the left-hander is never going to light up radar guns, there is hope that Sullivan can still find a few more ticks of velocity. For one thing, he had a normal offseason throwing program, rather than rehabbing his hip. For another, with the new pitching group in the fold, Sullivan might be able to get back to being more rotational like he was in college, and averaged 91-92 mph with his heater, as opposed to focusing on a deep hinge on his back side and getting a little stuck in his delivery.
FanGraphs is less of a believer due to the low fastball velocity, grading Sullivan as a 40 FV player (with a multi-inning relief role), 32nd in the org, albeit with a 70 future command grade:
Sullivan has just about every deceptive trick in the book. He has a huge crossfire, he hides the ball well, and his low slot gives him both a flat release angle and plus extension. Jarringly, for a tall drink of water without the world’s most fluid looking delivery, he’s got great command. He can hit all quadrants with his fastball and adeptly runs the sweeper on and off both sides of the plate. The change and slider give him a starter’s complement of pitches, and he’s had success out of the rotation through Double-A. He sits 86-88 and barely scrapes 90 in that role, though. While I’d love to project for it to work at the highest level, that’s too narrow of a tightrope for me, even before considering he’ll need to make the high-wire act work at Coors Field.
Sullivan sat in the low 90s in shorter stints this spring and had some pretty good Dodgers hitters off balance in a multi-inning relief outing a couple weeks back. Doing that in a once-through-the-order gig seems more sustainable, and it’s a particularly valuable job in Colorado, where there’s often a need to piggyback or otherwise bail out the starter.
When’s he going to get to the Rockies and how good will he be once he’s there?
Sullivan’s MLB debut marks the fifth so far from Colorado’s 2023 draft (joining Chase Dollander, Cole Carrigg, Kyle Karros, and Seth Halvorsen), with probably another one or two to come in Jack Mahoney and a player like Braylen Wimmer or Cade Denton. Sullivan’s fastball dominance has carried over to the minor leagues all the way up the ladder. The decreased fastball velocity is obviously a concern, though the development of a decent changeup and slider to pair with the fastball are certainly helpful.
Sullivan got knocked around in his first exposure to the Show and it’s possible that he might not be able to thrive in a starter’s role with mid-high 80s fastball velocity. In that situation, I’m still a believer that Sullivan’s handedness and funk mean he could succeed in a bullpen role as well. I ranked Sullivan 19th on my list as a 40 FV player because of the big league proximity and dominance despite the stuff quality diminishing, plus I want the Rockies to continue to think creatively with their pitching draftees.
Next, we’ll crack the top 20 of the mid-season 2026 PuRPs list!
ATLANTA, GA - AUGUST 14: Atlanta Braves catcher Drake Baldwin(30) with Atlanta Braves relief pitcher Dylan Dodd(46) at the end of the eight inning of the MLB game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Atlanta Braves on August 14, 2026, at Truist Park in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by John Adams/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The dog days of summer extend into August, and while they’re astronomically over now, the metaphor still works. Sorta. Has it been hot? Yes. Have the Braves been hot? Believe it or not, also yes. But, do you feel like there’s a degree of lethargy and listlessness? Maybe? Possibly? If so, well, the dog days stuff is right on the money.
This is really for a different post, so I’ll save most of it for that post, but this might be the weirdest Braves team I’ve seen in over a quarter-century. They are, wins-wise, almost as fine as can be, with their fourth-best record in baseball and on a see-saw for the Dodgers for second playoff bye in the NL. Yet, production-wise, they are the expected “reasonable playoff team that’s dealt and continues to deal” with a lot of injuries. Given their production, they should be on pace for 85 wins and not their current 96. Having a team whose identity is “we somehow end up with more wins than you’d think” without any specific way in which they get there is bizarre. There’s more to say, but elsewhere. It’s just weird, and perhaps all the weirder that it’s a quirk in the Braves’ favor for once.
How did the Braves do recently?
The Braves went 8-5 in the first half of August. It was an erratic performance. The month started with a continuation of their win streak from end of July; the streak ended at eight, with five in August. They then lost a series to the Yankees, won a series against the Mets, and lost the first two games in a set against the Diamondbacks. 8-5 is pretty good, both among MLB teams in August, and in general (100-win pace). But, the nature of how it was racked up — basically two series losses and two wins, with the back half of one series added in, is what potentially prompts that dog day ennui.
The reason for that ennui is partially illustrated below, and dovetails with the words above: the Braves are good at winning games, especially ones where they play okay, but they also have a lot of particularly blah performances that make the aggregate look worse than the game-to-game. To wit:
Braves are 18th in position player fWAR in August, including 16th in offensive outputs and 10th in offensive inputs. (That luck from late July has evaporated…)
Braves are ninth in pitcher fWAR in August, seventh/11th/11th in ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- respectively, and split with the rotation being fourth and the bullpen being 24th in fWAR for the first half of the month.
Would you have guessed they were 10th in xwOBA and ninth in pitcher fWAR over the last two weeks? Or does it feel worse after they got smushed in two games by the Diamondbacks?
Speaking of that… By game-by-game odds, the Braves should’ve gone 7-6ish over these 13 games, so no huge divergence there. But, this stretch did feature the team’s worst loss-against-expectations thus far: 2-0 to the Diamondbacks in the Chris Sale-Brandon Pfaadt matchup at home. Pre-game, it was the Braves’ third-“easiest” on-paper matchup all year, and they won the two with higher victory odds. So, that was the worst loss of the season, in a way. (They also won the fourth-easiest, on August 1, against the Nationals.) On the flip side, two of their three games against the Yankees (the non-Sale ones) were tied for third in hardest matchup to date, and the Braves split those, so… baseball?
How are the Braves doing for the season?
The further we get in, the more same-y this reads, which I guess is a good thing in some ways.
The Braves have a 7.5-game lead over the Phillies. Given that there is a three-way tie in the standings for the last two NL playoff spots, the Braves’ lead over the Phillies is their hold on a playoff spot, too. The Braves have division odds of over 91 percent, a 1-in-3ish chance of grabbing a bye with a top-two record, and playoff odds north of 99 percent. Basically none of these numbers budged in August, although their chances of a bye did go up by a few percentage points as the Dodgers have continued to scuffle.
The Braves’ aggregate team stats are not impressive, though you already knew that.
19th in position player fWAR, including 11th in defense, 16th in hitting outputs (wRC+), and 11th in hitting inputs (xwOBA).
16th in pitching fWAR, including 20th in the rotation and sixth in the bullpen. Their ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- ranks are fifth/18th/11th, which is an exceedingly silly line that suggests that their defense/strand rate timing is chef’s kiss-esque, but that they’ve also been very homer-prone in a way that hasn’t actually caused a bunch of runs to accumulate. As noted above, the HR/FB has at least normalized a bit recently.
A big signpost for me was whether the offense could play at a top-ten rate after their June swoon — the pitching is what it is, especially in the management, and I think the team needs to hit in some fashion (whether sustainably or just by getting lucky) to power through the end of the season. At this point, they’re juuuust making that mark when you go from July 1-forward: tenth in wRC+ (seventh in wOBA) but 13th in xwOBA. It’s a similar-ish story post-All Star Break (tenth-ish across the board), but there are some warning signs in August as they haven’t been able to sustain late July’s xwOBA overperformance and have sunk to middle-of-the-pack offensive production. They will need something (luck, better hitting) to avoid the remaining six-ish weeks of the season from getting uncomfortable.
How are the hitters doing?
We’ve hit the point in the season where there’s a lot of normalization between wOBA and xwOBA. But, moreso than that, this was a very stars-and-scrubs two weeks.
Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Mike Yastrzemski carried the load. Everyone else was kinda awful. It’s hard to carry multiple guys doing what Jim Jarvis, Ozzie Albies, and Drake Baldwin have done so far in August, but they’ve largely been regulars.
On the season, it’s a weird mix of guys, too, in the production sense. Olson, Michael Harris II, and Baldwin have done the business. A few guys have chipped in. Jim Jarvis entirely undid in a couple of weeks any good vibes he may have brought to the shortstop position earlier in the year. It’d be nice if Riley and/or Yastrzemski extended a tear into the rest of August and September, or if Acuña went on a tear (or at least had his inputs normalize with his outputs), or if Albies could get back to where he was earlier in the season.
At least the bubble charts look like everyone’s along a single (diagonal) axis now:
I do just want to call out, in case it’s buried in said dog days, that Riley and Yastrzemski were legitimately on fire for these two weeks. They also led the team in WPA among position players, but since that WPA was 0.12… it’s not really that exciting.
How are the pitchers doing?
It was a fun two weeks for the rotation.
As I always write here, Chris Sale is Chris Sale. The video game numbers continue, and were especially video game-y in August’s first half. His seasonal numbers are pretty ridiculous, too. Tyler Mahle showed up and had two epic starts. I’m torn on whether, for Mahle’s sake, the right side of the table should be as a-Brave or just the season in general. In any case, those are some pretty insane numbers for someone in two starts. Martin Perez and Grant Holmes were decent (Perez riding a homerless stretch helped his value immensely) while Bryce Elder struggled. On the season, the pecking order between the three seems to be Perez (less homer-itis), then Elder (same pitching, more homer-itis) and then Holmes. All in all, Perez has pitched like a mid-rotation starter, and Elder is either there or a little worse depending on how much you believe in his lack of homer suppression. Holmes has nasty (the bad kind) of numbers on the season; he seems very primed to be a multi-inning, nine-batters-max weapon in a playoff bullpen, but we’ll see if the Braves agree.
In the bullpen, Didier Fuentes had hilariously video-game level numbers in six outings in the first half of August. Dylan Lee had a funny line in six outings with no runs charged, but a decent FIP and a bad xFIP. Raisel Iglesias, Tyler Kinley, and Danny Young all had a horrible two weeks.
A special shoutout to Dylan Dodd, who somehow had a bad two weeks pitching-wise, but a great two weeks WPA-wise. Dodd’s line was a funny 38/122/116, which will happen in a small sample. But, he joined his Dylan compatriot as the only reliever with multiple shutdowns and no meltdowns in this span (3/0 for each). He played rescue ranger twice: once coming in after a leadoff single in the seventh with a 1-0 lead, and in the other, appearing in a bases-loaded jam in walkoff territory after Iglesias blew his save chance against the Yankees.
Shohei Ohtani
Matt Olson
Miguel Vargas
Tomoyuki Sugano
Shota Imanaga
Bobby Witt Jr.
