Category: MLB

The Yankees’ offense ranks 29th among 30 MLB teams with an 86 wRC+ since Aaron Judge went down in late May, and 27th with a 78 wRC+ since Cody Bellinger’s injury (July 26th). The two former MVPs are of vital importance for Aaron Boone’s lineup, as is a healthy Giancarlo Stanton, another past recipient of the honor. The three sluggers are expected to return at some point this season, with Bellinger and Stanton projected to beat Judge as things stand.

How would the Yankees’ lineup look when they are fully healthy? They added Luis García Jr. and Heliot Ramos before the Trade Deadline, not to mention Spencer Jones and George Lombard Jr. from their own minor league system in recent weeks. There will be a lot of movement, but the rosters expanding to 28 players in September will definitely help accommodate most of those who deserve a spot.

Our community evidently believes that the injuries to the star players and the inconsistent offense are certainly concerns heading into the stretch run, so it doesn’t hurt to look at the picture when everybody is fit to play.

Here’s a peek at how the Yankees’ offense would look against righties most nights when the injured stars return:

Ideal lineup vs. RHP:

1B Ben Rice
RF Aaron Judge
LF Cody Bellinger
DH Giancarlo Stanton/Luis García Jr.
CF Trent Grisham
2B Jazz Chisholm Jr.
SS George Lombard Jr.
3B Ryan McMahon
C Austin Wells

Rice has hit second most of the season, but he does have 16 starts from the leadoff spot. It would be quite a statement by the Yankees: here’s our 143-wRC+ hitter to open the lineup. Judge, Bellinger, and Stanton comprise a formidable heart of the order, provided that they can reach peak form at some point. Remember, this is a hypothetical exercise.

Stanton, of course, won’t play every game vs. righties. When he rests, the Yankees could just use Rice a DH and García at first. If he’s still on the roster (unclear if everyone is back) Amed Rosario is also a candidate to get some starts from that spot or at third base, and José Caballero would spell Lombard, McMahon, or Chisholm if they are unavailable.

Bellinger will probably alternate between the outfield and the DH spot in his first few games back (with an offday sprinkled here and there), coming off a lower-body injury.

It remains to be seen what the Bombers will do with García in the event that everyone is healthy. Will Boone primarily keep in the lineup at first base against righties? Could they try him at second base, where he had -17 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) last year?

Ideal lineup vs. LHP:

1B Paul Goldschmidt
RF Aaron Judge
LF Cody Bellinger
DH Giancarlo Stanton/Ben Rice
3B Amed Rosario/José Caballero
SS George Lombard Jr.
2B Jazz Chisholm Jr./José Caballero
CF Trent Grisham
C Alí Sánchez/Mitch Garver

Note that Rosario has been particularly productive vs. southpaws this year (68 wRC+, vs. 133 against RHP), but he has usually been much better vs. lefties over the course of his career. He will play in these situations — again, if he’s still on the roster.

Rice is actually solid vs. lefties (118 wRC+), so he will get starts. Ramos is also an asset against southpaws, with a 129 wRC+ during his career, and is expected to get some playing time there, too, either from the left field spot—where he is a subpar defender—or at DH.

Obviously, the idea is that players such as García, McMahon, and Wells don’t sniff the plate when there’s a left-handed pitcher on the mound. I did include the recent minor-league signee Garver as a possibility behind the plate against lefties because Sánchez has been so anemic that it might be worth trying the recently-dismissed Mariners backup in the bigs. He only reported to Triple-A on Friday though, so the Yankees may take a beat to assess him before making a move.

Caballero will be a super-utility guy who will get some starts here and there, plus some pinch-running and late-game appearances as a potential defensive replacement. Jones, who is currently part of the picture, will probably be squeezed out since he has minor-league options left. Both he and Rosario are candidates to depart the big-league roster upon Bellinger and Stanton’s returns — to say nothing of Judge, who likely won’t be available until rosters expand in September regardless.

Texas Rangers relief pitcher Luis Curvelo has cleared waivers and been outrighted to AAA Round Rock, the team has announced. As Curvelo has never been outrighted before, he does not have the option of rejecting the outright assignment, and thus will remain in the Rangers’ organization for the time being.

Curvelo, 25, was designated for assignment on August 14 so that the Rangers could add pitcher Marco Gonzales to the 40 man roster as part of adding Gonzales to the active roster. Gonzales was then designated for assignment a day later so that Jakob Junis could be activated from the 15 day injured list. That opened up a 40 man roster spot that I am guessing will be filled in the near future as a result of Jack Leiter being activated from the 60 day injured list.

Curvelo was originally signed out of Venezuela by the Seattle Mariners, and he pitched in their organization from 2018 through 2024. Curvelo became a minor league free agent after the 2024 season, and the Rangers opted to sign him to a major league deal that winter. After a somewhat promising 2025 season, where he put up a 3.76 ERA in 40 innings at Round Rock and a 5.68 ERA/4.66 FIP in 19 innings in the majors, he has regressed in 2026. In 10.1 innings over 9 games in the majors, he’s allowed 12 runs on 17 hits — including four homers — while walking seven and striking out six. Things haven’t been much better in AAA, as he’s allowed 27 runs in 25.2 innings for the Express this year, with 6 homers, 18 walks and 26 Ks.

Last week, SB Nation Reacts polled Giants fans with a surprisingly complicated question: Who should be the starting second baseman next year? Casey Schmitt had been penciled in for that position post-Luis Arraez trade, but his meniscus had other plans. Still, the idea that he’d simply take the position following rehab and possibly to start next season flowed logically from that development… until the trade deadline, when the Giants grabbed former top prospect Marcelo Mayer from the Boston Red Sox. Now… who knows?… maybe?

Okay, well, Giants fans are pretty certain that Schmitt is still the plan. That probably has a lot to do with the fact that Matt Chapman is still on the team and isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, blocking Schmitt from playing his best position. It also has a lot to do with the fact that only the injury has prevented the post-Arraez plan from being realized.

It’ll be interesting to see if Chapman and Schmitt are able to return at close to their peaks following their respective surgeries, but in Schmitt’s case, this breakout year had some red flags in it that might simply lock in as he gets a little older and has a knee problem. And it’s this fluctuating circumstance that could open the door for Marcelo Mayer to be, say, the Opening Day second baseman for the San Francisco Giants… in July or whenever the lockout ends. If you’ve been following the FanDuel links in these posts all season, this paragraph just offered some interesting questions for your digital wagering.

I’ll mention here that Casey Schmitt and Marcelo Mayer are both alumni from the same high school (though they missed each other by a year). I just didn’t want you to think I didn’t know that or, if you hadn’t heard that yet, there you go (it was Eastlake High School down in Chula Vista). But I also feel it’s worth mentioning as a possible piece of anecdata to counter the Boston (and East Coast) media’s attack on Mayer. Obviously, the Red Sox dumping him on the Giants in exchange for Erik Miller (9K, 1 BB, 4 hits, 0 earned runs — just 1 run — allowed in 5.1 IP) has a whiff of Rafael Devers about it in that it’s a signal that Boston might’ve soured on the player. Still, it confounds one outsider’s perspective (Keith Law), even if the consensus seems to have coalesced around the idea that Mayer, in his post-prospect peak, might actually be very close to washing out of the bigs, and that this change of scenery could be one last great chance to prevent that from happening.

So, the idea of Mayer not becoming one of the many thousands of failed prospects in baseball history because the Giants coached him up or whateverwhich then leads to him being the team’s starting second baseman next season seems like a huge stretch. Law’s assessment is pretty damning:

His front leg stays very stiff through contact, with his knee locked in place, and he can’t cover the lower third or anything below the zone. When he’s swung at anything below the bottom of the zone, he’s whiffed 56.5 percent of the time, and pitchers are going to keep attacking him there until he makes an adjustment — and he chases those pitches too often, too.

He does offer that leaving Mayer at one position (and suggests second base) rather than moving him around might allow him to focus on the swing changes he needs to make. There’s certainly potential there, and he’ll be just 24 whenever next season starts. Casey Schmitt made his debut in his age 24 season and hit .206/.255/.324. You know, sometimes these things can take time. Plus, Marcelo Mayer has every reason to listen to Ron Washington after what happened with Luis Arraez. Y’know, unless Mayer has an aversion to being successful.

Now, the prospect of Marcelo Mayer realizing the high rating he’d been given in the minors is less probable than Casey Schmitt continuing to be a productive major leaguer, but I’m not so sure that Schmitt can repeat his 2026, and whatever he regress to the mean of could simply make the second base position feel less locked down. Is this uncertainty why I don’t think it’s a 70/30-level guarantee that Schmitt will be the second baseman next season?

Possibly.

We’ll likely get to see Mayer this weekend when the Giants go to Fenway Park to get their brains beaten in by the Boston Red Sox as they speed towards 100+ losses on the season. Maybe the Giants think they can steal a win or two based on the revenge factor. Maybe Mayer is looking forward to showing them what they gave up on. He’s currently 5-for-14 with a homer, a double, a walk and 7 strikeouts in his rehab assignment with the River Cats. I’ll admit that he’d really have to have a huge series to even raise the question of if the job is his next year, but this is the time in a lost season when such experimentation ought to happen. The Giants were/are big stinky losers even with Casey Schmitt hitting like he did. I don’t think anything should be set in stone with this roster.

So far this month, the Jays are 10-6 with a 2.87 ERA, easily the best month our pitchers have had this year.

Hot

Dylan Cease: 3 starts, 0-0, 2.45 ERA. In 18.1 innings, batters hit .158/.236/.274, with 2 home runs, 8 walks and 27 strikeouts.

Also opponents stole 14 bases in those 18.1, with 2 caught. He doesn’t hold runners at all. Three starts, he had two Quality Starts, and one that would have been a Quality Start if he had thrown one more inning. It is very impressive that he has a .274 slugging average against. He’s been amazing and we couldn’t get a W for him. He went 7 innings of 2 hit ball with 1 walk and 10 strikeouts and we couldn’t get him a win. Before the DH, you’d say, well he should have diving in a run himself. In all three starts, he had more strikeouts than innings.

Shane Bieber: 3 starts, 2-0, 3.63 ERA. In 17.1 innings batters hit .271/.329/.414 with 3 home runs, 6 walks and 15 strikeouts.

Two really good starts, going 5.2 and 6 innings allowing just a run in each and one blowup, 5 earned in 5.2 innings, that we lost in 12 innings. He’s not been Ace level, but we have Cease for that, but he’s been pretty good, with the odd really bad start just to keep you guessing. Having that one off the charts terrible one, just before the trade deadline, showed me how much he wanted to stay will the team. It will be interesting to see how free agency goes.

Max Scherzer: 3 starts, 0-1, 2.20 ERA. In 16.1 innings, batters hit .197/.234/.328, 2 home runs, 3 walks and 13 strikeouts.

One was a Quality start, but the other two would have been if he had pitched 6 innings instead of 5. I’ve been thinking that we should change the definition of QS to 5 innings. Anyway, all three of his starts were good, giving up 1, 2 and 1 runs. I was pretty sure this would be his last year (and it really should be) but he is getting the outs.

José Soriano: 2 starts, 0-0, 1.69. In 10.2 innings, batters hit .216/.310/.351 with 1 home run, 5 walks and 7 strikeouts.

Two starts, one where he only went 4.2 innings, but gave up just 1 earned. The other he did 6 innings, giving up just 1 earned again. He seems to be a good pick up (he says knowing you shouldn’t judge anyone on 10 innings).

Braydon Fisher: 10 games, 1 as opener, 0-1, 0.82 ERA. In 11 innings, batters hit .156/.325/.250 with 1 home runs, 8 walks and 5 strikeouts.

He had 4 holds. He continues to be great. Too many walks, but then guys slugged .250. He gave up two runs, just the other day, and took the lose, but those were the only runs he allowed. When your ERA starts with a 0 you know it is going well

Tyler Rogers: 9 games, 1-0, 2 saves, 0.96 ERA. In 9.1innings, batters hit .182/.308/.182, with 6 walks and 2 strikeouts.

Tyler had 3 holds. 6 walks and 2 strikeouts looks bad, but he’s been terrific all season long. I do have some worries that he won’t do as well next year. Most submarine pitchers seem to have a very good year, a good and a poor year, if they stay with the same team for few years. But Rogers seems a lot better than most.

Mason Fluharty: 9 games, 0-0, 0.00 ERA. In 6.2 innings, batters hit .000/.091/.000 with 0 home runs, 2 walks and 4 strikeouts.

He had 2 holds. That’s a terrific 6.2 inning. He’s very good vs LHH .453 OPS, but not good against RHH (.918). John has been excellent at picking his spots. If your ERA only contains zeros, things are great.

Brendon Little: 7 games, 0-1, 1.59 ERA. In 5.2 innings, batters hit .235/.500/.294, with 0 earned runs, 9 walks and 9 strikeouts.

He had 3 holds. 9 walks in 5.2 inning pretty awful, but he only allowed 1 earned run. And 9 strikeouts in 17 total outs is very good. This is the pitcher he is. He’s brought his ERA under 10. I’m not sure I’d bet that he’ll finish the season with an ERA under 10. He’s now arbitration eligible until after next year, so they will likely keep him around next year. And he has an option left for next year.

Cold

I didn’t put anyone in this slot. Weird.

Inbetween

Louis Varland: 8 games, 2-1, 4 saves, 1 blown save, 3.24 ERA. In 8.1 innings, batters hit .235/.294/.296 with 1 home run, 2 walks and 6 strikeouts.

He allowed 3 earned runs, but there was also 4 unearned run. He hasn’t been quite as lights out as he had been earlier in the season. And John seems to be trying to be more careful with him, which seems like a good idea, although, since they traded Hoffman they are short of guys you want to see pitching the late innings of close games. I mean, Lázaro Estrada got a save and they DFAed him later.

Spencer Miles: 7 games, 1-0, 1 save, 2.25 ERA. In 8 innings, batters hit .313/.324/.469 with 0 homers, 1 walks and 5 strikeouts.

Batters are hitting him pretty good, but he’s kept them from scoring. After pitching just 8.2 innings in the Arizona Fall League, and nothing before that, last year, He’s up to 78 innings now. They are going to be careful with him the rest of the season. I’d bet, unless they lose a few more pitchers to injury, that he won’t get above 90.

Also Pitched

We seem to have a lot of these guys who pitched a couple of innings for us this month.

Simeon Woods Richardson: Pitched in 2 games, 5.1 innings, allowed a run, 4 hits, 2 walks with 4 strikeouts. The team doesn’t seem to have any confidence in him, but he has been pretty good for us.

Lazaro Estrada: Pitched in 4 games, 3.2 innings, 1-1 with a save. He gave up 4 hits, 3 earned, 5 walks, 3 strikeouts. Also had a hit batter, a balk, and wild pitch. He was DFAed, but he’s still in the system.

Chase Lee: Pitched in 4 games, he had a win. In 4.2 innings, he gave up 5 earned, on 6 hits, a home run, 4 walks and 1 strikeouts.

He’s in Buffalo. He’s been up and down a few times.

Chad Dallas: Pitched in 1 game, gave up a run in 3.2 innings, 2 hits, 2 walks, 2 strikeouts.

Ricky Tiedemann: They called him up, he pitched in one game. 1.2 innings, 2 hits, 1 earned and 2 strikeouts and then the sent him back to the minors. I didn’t understand why. Why would you bring him up to pitch once? If he had been terrible, I’d understand sending him back, but he was fine.

Matt Waldron: Pitched in 3 games. Two went well, had a hold in one, had clean inning in both. The other game went really badly, gave up 3 runs while getting 1 out. He’s still on the roster, so we’ll see him again.

IL

Spencer Arrighetti: Has Morton’s Neuroma in his right foot, which I haven’t heard of before. It doesn’t sound good, but apparently he might pitch for us this season. The description includes the words sharp pain and burning.

Trey Yesavage: 1 start, 2 inning. They think he might be back this year, I don’t. Had left meniscus surgery

Patrick Corbin: He won’t be back soon.

Joe Mantiply: He’s been throwing bullpen sessions.

Yimi García: Thoracic outlet syndrome. He may have an operation, which would likely end any chance of him pitching this year.

Cody Ponce: Will miss the season.

Jameson Taillon: Pitched in 2 games, 8 innings, 7 hits, 3 earned (3.38), 1 home run, 5 walks and 7 strikeouts.

It is possible he’ll be back before the end of the season.

José Berríos: Had Tommy John. Might be back by the end of next season, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Bowden Francis: Won’t pitch this year.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Reds fans and fans across the country.

The Cincinnati Reds salvaged what would have otherwise been a completely daft Monday yesterday, with Elly De La Cruz smacking the first walk-off hit of his burgeoning career to take down the St. Louis Cardinals 6-5 in 10 innings.

The Reds had lost the first game of the doubleheader earlier in the day, however, and that loss marked their third straight home loss after the drubbing given to them over the weekend by the Miami Marlins. They sat at just 59-65 on the season, and even after last night’s victory they sit 17 games back of the Milwaukee Brewers and in last place in the National League Central division.

The season went sideways in so many different directions. The bullpen injuries exposed a severe lack of depth at the upper levels of the minors, and so many of the ‘project’ arms they had hoped would step up simply haven’t been able to find an area code near the strike zone. Losing Hunter Greene for most of the season certainly didn’t help things, nor did watching Eugenio Suarez be lost for a month with a rhythm-sapping oblique strain.

Players haven’t played very well, that’s obvious. But just how much of this latest disaster of a year is on them? How much falls on the future Hall of Fame manager who puts them in these situations? How much falls on a front office that went out and served them a hot plate of Ke’Bryan Hayes? Rece Hinds, Noelvi Marte, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand smashed the ball all over the place at AAA, yet none could make contact in the big leagues – is that a hitting coach problem?

Do the Reds even have their director of pitching anymore?

All of this, obviously, falls under the discretion of the ownership group, who has sat by for decades of losing without making any overhauls of any significance.

This week we ask you – on whom does the blame mostly fall for this failed 2026 season?

Let us know in the survey below!

The Mariners managed to bounce back from that heart breaking loss on Friday to win the series against the Astros. Combined with the general ineptitude of the rest of the American League, that pair of wins helped Seattle climb to within two games of the final Wild Card spot and four games back in the AL West. The M’s have a trio of interleague matchups on deck beginning with a three-game set in Milwaukee.

The Brewers have unlocked the secret to regular season success: a deep and flexible roster filled with competent players who can fill multiple roles without missing a beat. Oh, and it helps that they have some of the best young players in baseball in Jacob Misiorowski, Jackson Chourio, and Brice Turang leading the way. Whether or not this type of roster can win in October is another matter, but for now, they’re cruising through the regular season with the best record in baseball and the second highest run differential.

Like the Rays, the Brewers’ lineup is anchored by a quartet of superstars. Brice Turang took a huge leap forward last year and has followed up with a season just as good this year. Jackson Chourio is one of the youngest players in baseball but he’s already established himself as one of the better all-around hitters in the game. The other two stars, William Contreras and Christian Yelich, have both struggled a bit this year. This is the second season in a row where Contreras’s production at the plate has slipped significantly. Last year, he played through a fracture in his hand and you have to wonder if that injury fully healed before this season. The rest of the lineup is built a lot like Tampa Bay’s too. There are a ton of role players who are skilled across the board, significantly raising the floor of the roster.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

After getting traded from the Giants to the Red Sox last year and then to Brewers over the offseason, Kyle Harrison has finally settled in and put together a big breakout campaign. He had always had the impressive pedigree as a prospect, but struggled to put everything together across nearly 200 big league innings heading into this season. Milwaukee went right to work, moving him on the rubber to the first-base side, raising his arm angle by five degrees, and helping him unlock a more effective changeup. The results speak for themselves: his 4.75 strikeout-to-walk ratio ranks eighth among qualified starting pitchers.

After giving us tantalizing glimpses of his talent during his injury-wracked stint with the Dodgers, Dustin May has finally put it all together this year. It helps that he’s been completely healthy, keeping him on the mound to tap into that talent. He put up a 12-game stretch earlier this year where he ran a 2.54 ERA and a 2.66 FIP, though his summer has been a bit more up-and-down. The Brewers acquired him at the trade deadline to give them another veteran arm to reinforce their young pitching staff. He’s allowed three runs in 13 innings across two starts with Milwaukee.

Robert Gasser quickly rose through the Brewers farm system after they acquired him in the 2022 Josh Hader trade. He made his major league debut in 2024 but quickly blew out his elbow after just five starts. He made it back to the big leagues late last year after rehabbing from surgery and has been up-and-down with the team this season. He throws from a low slot, creating a ton of deception with some extremely short arm action. Despite his name, he doesn’t throw very hard, instead relying on his deep repertoire and deceptive delivery to find success. His sweeper is probably his best pitch — he throws it as his primary weapon against both left-handed and right-handed batters — and his command is his best tool. There aren’t any standout skills in his profile, but the whole package is a lot better than any individual piece.

The Big Picture:

At one point on Saturday — after all the East Coast games had ended and while the Rangers were still playing the Athletics on the West Coast — there were four teams tied for the final AL Wild Card spot and two others just half a game back. A couple of days later, there are now three teams tied for that last playoff berth, two teams a half game back, and two more within two games. The standings are just a big ol’ shrug emoji.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Padres fans and fans across the country.

Ethan Salas has been the Crown Jewel of the San Diego Padres minor league system since he was signed as an international free agent out of Venezuela in 2023. At the time, Salas was just 16 years old and has essentially grown up in the San Diego system.

Since his signing, Salas has been considered a future star at the MLB level due to his impressive skills on defense and his better than average offense. He has been lauded for his maturity and his ability to work with the Padres pitching staff in Spring Training. There was some thought that Salas could possibly make his MLB debut while still a teenager, but that hope was squashed when he missed all but five games last season with a back injury.

Salas is now 20 years old and is back on track to stardom. He was recently called up from Double-A to Triple-A and since arriving in El Paso with the Chihuahuas he has appeared in 14 games. In that time, Salas has made 53 plate appearances and has logged 20 hits with six doubles, a triple and three home runs. He has also scored 10 runs and driven in 20 runs. Salas has also walked nine times and has one stolen base. He is currently hitting .377 and looks to have adjusted well after moving up a level.

Salas has played well on defense although he has allowed some passed balls, but he made up for those by throwing runners out as well. He is not perfect, and maybe not considered polished, but he has proven he can handle himself at the plate, which was always the question that came up when he was talked about. The best part is, if Salas IS called up to the majors, he will have Freddy Fermin who is a defense-first catcher to help him adjust behind the plate and Luis Campusano, who is an offense-first catcher, to help him in the batter’s box.

The young prospect has been the future for San Diego and with the team pushing to make the playoffs a spark from a young, hungry, talented prospect may be what they need to finish the sprint to the end of the season with a playoff berth. Do you think the Padres should make the call and bring Salas to the majors? That is the question for this week’s Gaslamp Reacts Survey from Gaslamp Ball. Results will be posted later in the week.

Brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook, the official sportsbook partner of SB Nation.

We had noted last week that we’d likely see AJ Smith-Shawver rejoin the team during this week’s four-city road trip, and this has come to pass: not only have the Braves have recalled the 23-year old right-hander, he’s slated to start tomorrow’s Twins series finale. Chris Sale will shift to start the makeup game versus the White Sox.

AJSS back in the rotation, we all cheered. However, we still have Walt Weiss on record sticking with Grant Holmes and musing on if AJ would be the one best suited for the bullpen. We hope it’s not true, but time will tell.

The corresponding move for Smith-Shawver is saying farewell to Tyler Kinley. The Kinley experience truly had its ups and downs, and now this chapter concludes with being designated for assignment. We’ll see if he’s another candidate for the Carrasco/Hernandez cycle.

If anything can pierce through the droning noise of JJ Wetherholt and Sal Stewart's names as they're muttered over and over as the supposed leaders in the National Rookie of the Year race, perhaps it is the sound of Mets right fielder Carson Benge's throws to home plate made on Monday night at Citi Field as they whizzed through the air.

In the first inning against the Padres, Benge came up firing from right field twice. On both occasions, he nailed a San Diego runner trying to score. His second outfield assist, which was clocked at 103.9 mph, capped the frame and sent the crowd of just over 27,000 into a frenzy.

The reaction from Gary Cohen up in SNY's TV booth was a mix of excitement and bewilderment: "Are you kidding me? Stop running on him!" 

As a former pitcher, Benge's arm in the outfield is a serious weapon.

His arm value is in the 95th percentile, with his arm strength in the 99th percentile, via Baseball Savant. And it's Benge's arm that has been grabbing most of the headlines lately.

But he's also been doing serious damage at the plate, hitting .304/.368/.461 (.829 OPS) in 212 plate appearances over the last two months while raising his OPS for the season to .750 and his OPS+ to 109.

So why is Benge viewed as being a distant third in the Rookie of the Year race?

The odds via BetMGM look like this:

JJ Wetherholt: -160
Sal Stewart: +140
Carson Benge: +1400

The betting market and narrative don't align with what's actually happening on the field, with Benge having a higher OPS+ than Wetherholt (109 to 107) and closing in on Stewart (119 OPS+), who doesn't provide nearly as much value defensively as Benge and Wetherholt.

When it comes to Wetherholt, it seems like he was simply anointed the winner after a hot start with the Cardinals that resulted in having an .856 OPS at the end of April.

But since May 1, Wetherholt is hitting just .239/.338/.340 (.678 OPS) in 399 plate appearances.

What makes Wetherholt a unique candidate for ROY is that his second base defense has been spectacular, with him in the 100th percentile and worth 22 OAA, via Baseball Savant -- albeit at a position that is not valued very highly.

As far as Stewart, his power is his best attribute, and he's already smacked 26 homers in 125 games for the Reds. But like Wetherholt, Stewart's offense has taken a step back since a hot start that had his OPS sitting at .943 entering May.

Since then, Stewart is slashing .251/.320/.442. That's still strong production, especially for a rookie catcher. But like Wetherholt, Stewart's hot start built the Rookie of the Year narrative for him.

Defensively, Stewart has been a tick above average when it comes to OAA (+1), but his arm strength (20th percentile) ranks near the bottom of the league.

Benge's season -- at least offensively -- has been the opposite of Wetherholt and Stewart, with him starting incredibly slowly before coming on strong.

After his first three weeks in the majors, Benge was struggling badly, with a triple slash of .136/.219/.197. And he looked a bit overmatched. But the Mets chose to let him work through it instead of sending him to the minors, and the results have spoken for themselves.

Since April 23, Benge is hitting .296/.355/.452 (.807 OPS) with 13 homers, 15 doubles, 46 RBI, and 57 runs scored. So while he's taken it up another notch since June 18 (as mentioned above), Benge has been terrific offensively for roughly four months.

Benge's arm has rated nearly as well as Wetherholt's range/OAA does, but Benge's range/OAA has been just a tick above average (in the 54th percentile), due in part to some misplays earlier this season. That number has improved recently, and better play from Benge in that area down the stretch would make his ROY case even stronger.

Another key metric to watch in the ROY race is wRC+, which measures a hitter's overall offensive value while taking his contributions at the plate and translating them to his impact on runs created for his team.

Here's how things break down in terms of wRC+:

Sal Stewart: 114 Carson Benge: 112 JJ Wetherholt: 107

Given the narrative surrounding the award, it might take a continued surge by Benge and more regression from Wetherholt and Stewart in order for Benge to snag it.

But Benge's name should be firmly in the conversation with the two of them -- not some kind of distant afterthought.

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This is the week that I get back into the black after a great run across August with MLB player props and cashing home run predictions, and what better day to go big than on Dinger Tuesday.

How does one leave Pete Crow-Armstrong off the home run card after last night’s performance, and with today’s matchup? Meanwhile, Wilyer Abreu is the unstoppable force, and Merrill Kelly is the movable object.

These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Tuesday, Aug. 18. 

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Pete Crow-Armstrong	+330
Wilyer Abreu	+425

Home run pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong

I don't mind going chalk when that chalk is MVP betting favorite Pete Crow-Armstrong, who just hit a walk-off extra-inning dinger last night to reach the 30/30 mark and is being priced on the good side of $3. PCA should be shorter than +300 in any matchup that isn't against an elite starter.

Today is anything but an elite starter, as the White Sox are going with lefty opener Bryan Hutson before handing things over to right-hander Erick Fedde, who just lost his rotation spot and is one of the hardest-hit pitchers in baseball, ranking 37th-worst in HardHit% among MLB starters and 21st-worst in Blast Contact%.

The wind is blowing out at Wrigley, and PCA will see some very hittable arms to keep padding those MVP numbers.

He is a buy to +290 today.

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: TBS

Home run pick: Wilyer Abreu (+425)

It's tough to find a hotter hitter this month than Boston's Wilyer Abreu. The lefty bat leads the league in slugging and xwOBA in August, and sits second in ISO. The HardHit% over that stretch is at a Dinger-sexy 62.5%, which is only behind three other hitters. The form is there, and the matchup is the deciding factor.

Merrill Kelly has been hit hard all season and ranks in the Bottom 25 in HR/FB and HR/9 among MLB starters. He is one of a handful of pitchers who rank in the Bottom 25 in all four of my favorite fade categories: HR/9, HR/FB, HardHit%, and BlastCont%. 

It's a great price in an average matchup, but this is elite form vs. a hard-hit pitcher and a number I'd buy to +350.  

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NESN, DBACKS.TV

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Between the sign stealing scheme of recent years, the steroid/PED news cycles of the past couple decades, and the many other scandals through the history of the sport, cheating has always been a hot topic in baseball. Very few of the scandals are as amusing as the “spitball.”

For one, the spitball was legal for quite a while, and even when it was made illegal, some guys were still allowed to use it. While altering the baseball clearly can benefit a starter, the idea of it happening via old fashioned saliva is just an amusing mental image.

One of the fathers of the spitball was Burleigh Grimes, who did have a very brief Yankees’ stint. With today being his birthday, let’s look back at the life and times of “Ol’ Stubblebeard.”

Burleigh Arland Grimes
Born: August 18, 1893 (Emerald, WI)
Died: December 6, 1985 (Clear Lake, WI)
Yankees Tenure: 1934

Grimes was born in Wisconsin in 1893. When the pitcher was still quite young, Grimes’ father passed away, leaving his mother struggling to try and support their family. Eventually, Grimes himself had to help and got a long and strenuous job at a lumber camp. He very nearly died when one stack of logs fell on him, but through good fortune he survived without major injury.

However, Grimes’ love was for baseball, and he developed an affinity for one particular aspect early. Before his early death, Grimes’ father, who had played for several local teams himself, taught young Burleigh how to play. He also had a formative experience while attending a minor league game in neighboring Minnesota. He was dazzled by pitcher Hank Gehring, who was a proponent of the spitball, which was then still legal. Grimes went home and began to practice and tinker with using the spitball in his own game.

Eventually, Grimes became good enough that professional teams began to take notice. When he was 18, he signed his first deal with a Class D minor league team in Eau Claire, Wisconsin. Over the next couple years, he worked his way up, playing for a variety of minor league teams, and generally impressing on the mound. The Tigers held his rights at one point, but they were eventually sold to the Pittsburgh Pirates, who called him up in late 1916.

Grimes spent his first two major league seasons in Pittsburgh. He was a bit up and down and walk happy, so after the 1917 season, the Pirates included him in a trade to the then-Brooklyn Robins. The headliner at the time was the other pitcher Pittsburgh sent to Brooklyn, Al Mamaux, and included future Yankees’ manager Casey Stengel going the other way. But Grimes ended up being the biggest piece of the deal when things were all said and done.

In 1918, Grimes hit the ground running in Brooklyn, posting a 2.13 ERA (130 ERA+) in 270 innings. He took a bit of a step back the following year, but did spend a bit of time away from baseball, serving in the Navy during World War II. He then responded with dominant campaigns in 1920 and ‘21. He would’ve been a Cy Young contender in both seasons had the award existed then.

Grimes soon became a master of the spitball, which he accentuated by chewing slippery elm, saying:

I used to chew slippery elm – the bark, right off the tree. Come spring the bark would get nice and loose and you could slice it free without any trouble. What I checked was the fiber from inside, and that’s what I put on the ball. The ball would break like hell, away from right-handers and in on lefties.

MLB did actually officially ban the spitball following the 1919 season, but a group of pitchers were grandfathered in and could continue using it until their careers ended. Originally, the spitball was set to be banned outright, but Grimes was among those to lead a campaign against this, leading to the grandfathering in. Grimes would be the longest lasting of that group, not retiring until 1934.

Besides the spitball, Grimes could also be a bit ornery on the mound. He was known to throw brush back pitches at opposing batters and purportedly once threw at a hitter who was in the on deck circle. While some disputed this, he could also be somewhat aloof, and had a bad relationship with Dodgers’ manager Wilbur Robinson, who would send others over to talk to the pitcher.

Grimes helped the Dodgers to the 1920 World Series, where they lost with the pitcher struggling a bit in his three starts. While Grimes himself remained mostly good, Brooklyn didn’t get back to the Fall Classic in the next couple years. The team and the player also regularly bickered over salary, and Brooklyn eventually decided to move him to the cross-town New York Giants.

Over the next couple years, despite success in the meantime, Grimes became a bit of a journeyman. He spent just one year with the Giants before going back to the Pirates, where he had two of his career best years in 1928 and ’29. However, more salary disputes led to Pittsburgh trading him to the Boston Braves. He had a bad run there, leading to the Braves trading him to the St. Louis Cardinals. In St. Louis, Grimes got back on track and helped them to the 1930 World Series. Grimes performed much better in that World Series, but his team fell to the Athletics. However, the Cardinals won the NL pennant again the following season, and Grimes put in an arguable MVP performance in the 1931 Fall Classic. He had a 2.02 ERA in his two starts, including allowing just two runs in a Game 7 victory, winning his first and only World Series title.

Despite that, the Cardinals had a loaded rotation and ended up trading Grimes to the Cubs. In Chicago, he helped the Cubs topple the Cardinals in the NL in 1932, but they fell in the World Series to the Yankees in the series that featured the Babe Ruth “called shot.”

Partway through the 1933 season, Grimes was released and returned to the Cardinals. Partway through the following season, he was again released and this time signed with the Yankees. Grimes’ Yankee stint wasn’t particularly notable, as he had a 5.50 ERA in 10 appearances out of the bullpen. His signing was almost certainly just an attempt to see if “Ol’ Stubblebeard” — a nickname gained from Grimes’ habit of not shaving on days he was pitching — still had anything left in the tank. The Yankees also released him, and Grimes returned back to the Pirates, where his MLB career ended following the 1934 season.

After ending his playing career, Grimes remained in baseball. He had a successful run as a minor league manager, earning him the big job with his old Brooklyn Dodgers team in 1937. His Brooklyn teams finished well under .500 in both seasons before they let him go. After further minors managing jobs, he became a scout and a coach for several teams, including back with the Yankees from 1947-52.

Grimes eventually retired back to his native Wisconsin, where he resided until his death in 1985. Before that, he got the honor of being inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1964 via the Veterans Committee. You can definitely debate whether his Hall status is warranted, but there’s no doubt that he was a very big figure in baseball for many years.

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The National League MVP odds race is shaping up for a thrilling finish, as Pete Crow-Armstrong has emerged as a legitimate contender to dethrone Shohei Ohtani, who has won three straight MVPs (one in the AL, two in the NL) since 2023.

The current odds at Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps, have PCA and Ohtani as a virtual coin flip, with both players listed at 50% probability. However, the Chicago Cubs outfielder has a slightly higher cost at 51.7 cents.

If the season ended today, I'd pick PCA, but it's admittedly a narrow margin. This is especially the case after both players brought their best selves to the ballpark on Monday night.

Odds to win 2026 NL MVP 

Player
Pete Crow-Armstrong	-107
Shohei Ohtani	+100

Odds last updated on 8-18. Odds from Polymarket. Use our Polymarket promo code (COVERS) for a $50 trading bonus when you deposit at least $20 as a new user.

The NL MVP odds have fluctuated over the last several weeks. Shohei Ohtani has been favored across the board, but Pete Crow-Armstrong has gradually gained ground.

At the end of July, Ohtani was -156 to win NL MVP, and PCA was +186. That has flipped, and the pair are almost equal to earn the honors.

PCA leads MLB with 2.2 WAR since the All-Star Game, while Ohtani hasn't pitched in nearly two months, limiting his edge.

PCA vs Ohtani: A statistical breakdown

Stat	Pete Crow-Armstrong	Shohei Ohtani
Home runs	30	29
RBI	78	78
Runs scored	89	81
AVG	.281	.295
OPS	.929	.948
SB	31	7
ERA	N/A	1.79
Pitcher strikeouts	N/A	95
Defensive runs saved	14	1
Outs above average	23	N/A
FanGraphs WAR	8.2	7

The case for Pete Crow-Armstrong

Remember when the Chicago Cubs traded half a season of Javier Baez for outfield prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong? New York Mets fans do.

This is the worst-case scenario for trading a top prospect. While PCA's ceiling was always through the roof, you never really know what you're going to get from a 20-year-old who was drafted out of high school, especially during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.

After barely playing in the Mets' organization, PCA immediately flourished for the Cubs, eventually reaching the majors to wrap up the 2023 season. His results were poor, but the future remained bright. He was fine in 2024, showcasing elite speed and defense while scuffling at the plate. He then had a red-hot first half of 2025 before cratering in the summer months.

The question became: will he adjust?

If you are into fantasy baseball, you know there was a lot of skepticism. His highs were bound to be high, a true five-tool talent offering speed and newfound power (he hit 31 home runs and stole 35 bases in 2025), but he also seemed to be a very streaky player.

Well, he seems to have adjusted. He's striking out more, yes, but he's also increased his walk rate by more than 7% year over year. He's aggressive but also selective. And while the .349 BABIP is very high, he's also extremely fast, able to beat out grounders that otherwise might send him back to the dugout.

He's built for the moment. After Shohei Ohtani clubbed two home runs in a game against the Colorado Rockies (at Coors Field, natch), PCA came through in the clutch at Wrigley Field against the crosstown White Sox on Monday night. 

PETE CROW-ARMSTRONG

WALK-OFF HOME RUN FOR 30/30 🤯 pic.twitter.com/TSUSXmb8vi

— MLB (@MLB) August 18, 2026

Huge. He led off the game with his 29th homer and capped it off with a walk-off blast, sending the Wrigley faithful into hysterics.

Offensively, the tale of the tape remains very similar for the two superstars. But I ultimately give PCA the edge because of the defense.

He is the best defensive center fielder in MLB. Ohtani only plays the field when he pitches. When Ohtani won NL MVP as a designated hitter, becoming the first DH ever to win, he hit a career-high 54 home runs while slashing .310/.390/.646. He was undeniable.

Ohtani's offense is really good this year. It'd be disingenuous to say otherwise. But he's not overwhelmingly superior, which opens the door for PCA, who combines similar/equal offensive numbers with truly elite glovework.

The case for Shohei Ohtani

For as good as PCA has been, it still feels somewhat contrarian to take him over Ohtani. That the Los Angeles Dodgers two-way phenom has pitched at all this season, and as effectively as he has, could be seen as enough. Crow-Armstrong is an elite fielder. Even if he's the best, there are several excellent defensive players throughout MLB.

No one other than Ohtani both pitches and hits at a high level of competency. Not now, and not really ever. Not like this.

Before a lingering knee injury pushed Ohtani back to full-time DH duties, he posted a 1.79 ERA with 95 strikeouts in 85 2/3 innings over 14 starts. He was even better over his first 10 starts, boasting a 0.74 ERA while allowing zero earned runs six times. 

He was a legitimate Cy Young candidate. 

Even with the diminished results in his other four starts, Ohtani finished six innings each time. Had he stayed on the mound, I don't think this debate would even happen, and that could be interpreted as an argument in his favor. His numbers are simply too good to allow a technicality to disqualify him. 

Voting against Ohtani may be perceived as a result of voter fatigue, with baseball writers looking for any reason to go elsewhere for the NL's top honor, bored by "The Unicorn's" sustained excellence. 

The final verdict

The NL MVP battle is heating up 🔥

-Pete Crow-Armstrong: 2 homers (walk-off HR), 4 hits
-Shohei Ohtani: 2 homers, 4 hits

Both earned Player of the Game honors!

(MLB x Primo Brands) pic.twitter.com/mdiBvTGUFR

— MLB (@MLB) August 18, 2026

Ultimately, I don't buy the "voter fatigue" argument. If Ohtani were hitting at the same level as his DH MVP campaign, then he'd be the clear front-runner. Likewise, if Ohtani were able to pitch at a high level for the entire season with his current offensive production, it's a no-brainer.

But neither of those things has come to fruition to this point. 

Defense is historically underrated, and PCA wouldn't have a snowball's chance in Hell at winning if his bat wasn't doing a lot of the heavy lifting.

A lot can change in a month and a half, and if Crow-Armstrong runs into a streaky stretch like the one that torpedoed the second half of his 2025 season, Ohtani will win. If Ohtani can get back on the mound in late August or early September, that will also make threading the needle difficult for PCA.

But as last night showed, Pete Crow-Armstrong is game to match Ohtani swing for swing right now. And that, plus his otherworldly defense in arguably baseball's most important position, is enough for me to favor him here. 

Pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-107 at Polymarket)

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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