A multi-year look at St. Louis Cardinals catchers

Feb 17, 2010; Jupiter, FL, USA; St. Louis Cardinals catchers work out at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Frequent board commenter Solanus tracks an enormous amount of pitcher and catcher data, tabulating each game result by hand. Last year, he gave me enough insight into his spreadsheets where I was able to re-create much of the data he hand tabulates (I’m way too lazy for that!) and I wanted to peak at some of those data points and see what we could learn about the defensive side of their catching corps.

The data itself comes from a mix of sources. Statcast data for actual line-ups and game events (who pitched, who caught, which innings, etc.). Baseball reference.com for overall pitching lines for each game, and with Fangraphs because of course there has to be differences in how the data is constructed that doesn’t make it easy. Team ids between sites are different. Player Ids are different. Even game Ids are different, and all three have to be brewed together to knit the data into one consistent result.

I wrote the code. The methods are all Solanus. I simply copied his logic into R code and ran it. So he gets all the credit.

I chose to query both the 2025 and 2026 seasons (you will likely understand why when I go through it). Here is the raw data, and following that some of the interesting morsels I discovered and thought about some.

2026Herrera, IvanPages, PedroBernal, LeoCrooks, Jimmy2026 Tot2025Pozo, YohelHerrera, IvanPages, PedroCrooks, Jimmy2025 Tot
CatcherStarts52611534162CatcherStarts351310212162
StarterSD273061376StarterSD12341359
StarterMD172551259StarterMD19542773
StarterND162761867StarterND8834555
CatcherWins253171477CatcherWins12557478
CatcherLosses273082085CatcherLosses23845884
CatcherTotRS21426774165720CatcherTotRS1196946140689
CatcherTotRA21728079173749CatcherTotRA1706745265754
CatcherRSperGame4.14.44.94.94.4CatcherRSperGame3.45.34.53.34.3
CatcherRAperGame4.24.65.35.14.6CatcherRAperGame4.95.24.45.44.7
StarterWPA1.8-0.1-0.4-0.60.7StarterWPA-2.2-1.4-0.5-1.1-5.2
RelieverWPA-0.51.9-0.8-3.1-2.5RelieverWPA0.1-0.25.0-0.93.9
RelieverSD53821128174RelieverSD1714994134
RelieverMD3446825113RelieverMD1412451081
CatcherWins2orLessRS06118CatcherWins2orLessRS10517
CatcherLosses2orLessRS141341041CatcherLosses2orLessRS14325547
CatcherWins6orMoreRS12134938CatcherWins6orMoreRS8330142
CatcherLosses6orMoreRS362314CatcherLosses6orMoreRS326112
CatcherWins2orLessRA14152637CatcherWins2orLessRA9129342
CatcherLosses2orLessRA32207CatcherLosses2orLessRA21418
CatcherWins6orMoreRA153312CatcherWins6orMoreRA11518
CatcherLosses6orMoreRA131851046CatcherLosses6orMoreRA14225647
Wpct2minusRS00.3160.20.0910.163Wpct2minusRS0.0670.0000.1670.1670.130
Wpct6plusRS0.80.6840.6670.750.731Wpct6plusRS0.7270.6000.8330.5000.778
Wpct2minusRA0.8240.8820.510.841Wpct2minusRA0.8180.5000.8790.7500.840
Wpct6plusRA0.0710.2170.3750.2310.207Wpct6plusRA0.0670.3330.1670.1430.145

What do you see?

Here is what I picked up…

  1. Take a look at the line marked Reliever WPA. This is “Win Probability Added” (or subtracted) by relievers across the two seasons, distributed by which catcher they were throwing to. This is calculated by accumulating the WPA (added or subtracted) that came with each pitch said relievers threw. What I noticed is that Pedro Pages, in both years, ends up with a significantly larger gain of WPA than the other catchers combined. It would appear that across two seasons and two largely different reliever staffs, Pages is better able to coax out winning performance among the reliever set. Interesting?
  2. In what may be a companion stat, take a look at the rows marked RelieverMD and RelieverSD. SD and MD stand for Shutdown and Meltdown and are Fangraph proprietary calculations of reliever performance, where a relief appearance that nets > .06 WPA (ie. increases win chances by 6% or more) is an SD (Shutdown) and a Meltdown is the opposite, which is a relief appearance that decreases win chances by 6% or more. Pages has, by far, the highest ratio of SD:MD among the catchers across both years.
  3. Take a look at the line CatcherRApergame. RA is runs allowed. Note that the only catcher to exceed 5 RA in both seasons is Jimmy Crooks. This is a wee bit different than catcher ERA, as this stat just counts runs, not just earned runs.
  4. Here is an unexpected twist. Across two seasons, only one catcher was able to coax positive StarterWPA. The 2026 version of Ivan Herrera. Who had that on their pre-season predictions?
  5. Having nothing to do with individual catchers, but look and the StarterWPA and RelieverWPA totals across 2025 and 2026 and see how much they shifted. Reversed is really what happened. The 2025 bullpen with the 2026 rotation produces a WPA of 4.6 (instead of just below 0). That is ~85 wins right there. Wow. And I knew the bullpen was bad, but holy cow!
  6. Again, having nothing to do with catchers, but notice how evenly distributed the games are in both years. Almost 1/3 of the games were games where the Cardinals scored 6 or more runs and another 1/3 were games where the Cardinals scored 2 or less runs. Presumably, if my math skills persist, the remaining third falls in the range of 3 to 5 runs scored. While much ado can be made about all the close games the Cardinals played, the reality for most teams, most years is that the 3-to-5 runs cohort is going to be crapshoot, 50-50 on wins and losses, unless they have a lights out bullpen. Two major areas of improvement for the Cardinals are going to be 1) reduce the number of games they score 2 runs or less (they only won 16% of these) and 2) reduce the number of games they score 6 runs or more AND lose (they only won 73% of these games). That number needs to be nearer or above 80%.
  7. Here is one that probably needs a methodology tweak, but it looks to be on the right path. Solanus calcs starter WPA and assigns as SD (shutdown) or MD (meltdown) grade similar to relievers. If you look at the totals for each season, the number of starter SD and MD outcomes flipped between 2025 and 2026) in a good way. What I need to figure out is … is the .06 WPA threshold correct for starters. They pitch more innings, but lower leverage, so not sure the actual threshold is where I’d want it. More to chew on this winter.

I’m not sure if there is more to decipher from this or not. Although I think that over long periods of time Catcher ERA can be an indicator, it is pretty volatile over small samples. While I gathered two seasons of data, realize that this is only 60 starts for a guy like Herrera and only Pages exceeded 100 starts across both seasons combined. Probably too small to make definitive conclusions, but some trends (as noted above) emerge and can be hard to ignore. Some caveats include: Most of Ivan’s data set in based on 2026, and was mostly restricted to two starters – Pallante, McGreevy. Crook’s and Bernal’s sample sizes are too small to read much into.

Comparing to the Brewer’s catchers in 2026

One of the beneifts of having code instead of hand-tabulating is I can run this for any season, any team. For fun, I ran the same queries against MIL pitchers and catchers for the 2026 season. Some things I noted:

starting.catcher.nameSanchez, GaryContreras, WilliamNaylor, BoQuero, Jeferson2026 Tots
CatcherStarts3812121162
StarterSD24630087
StarterMD8412152
StarterND16531171
CatcherWins237901103
CatcherLosses15422059
CatcherTotRS158653129832
CatcherTotRA135457197618
CatcherRSperGame4.25.46.09.05.14
CatcherRAperGame3.63.89.57.03.81
StarterWPA3.483.04-0.79-0.475.3
RelieverWPA1.458.24-0.280.129.5
RelieverSD4012501166
RelieverMD27442073
CatcherWins2orLessRS56NANA11
CatcherLosses2orLessRS425NANA29
CatcherWins6orMoreRS8450154
CatcherLosses6orMoreRS06107
CatcherWins2orLessRA1843NANA61
CatcherLosses2orLessRA02NANA2
CatcherWins6orMoreRA07018
CatcherLosses6orMoreRA4202026
Wpct2minusRS0.5560.194NANA0.275
Wpct6plusRS1.0000.882010.885
Wpct2minusRA1.0000.956NANA0.968
Wpct6plusRA0.0000.259010.235

For fun, I ran the same queries against MIL pitchers and catchers for the 2026. Some things I noted:

  • Want to know the difference between Milwaukee and St. Louis? Look at the Starter and Reliever WPA numbers. In 2026, the Cardinals starters accumulated .7 WPA and -2.5 for relievers. Milwaukee? 5.3 and 9.5 respectively. The reliever gap alone is 12.12!! Using really rough math, I figure most games started out in the area of 50-50 win probability, with a little bit more to the home team and better team. A .5 increase in WPA takes a 50-50 game and turns it into a win. 12 WPA turns into 24 wins. Right?
  • Then, take a look at Catcher starts. Last I checked, William Contreras was a pretty good hitter. If Milwaukee can catch their pretty good hitter 120 games+, why are Cardinal fans in such a hurry to move Rainel Rodriguez off C?
  • Another thing to gander at. The Cardinal relievers had a few more Shutdown performances, but overran the Brewers with like 40 more Meltdowns. Hmmm. That could leave scars.
  • Last, look at the Brewers win PCT when the score 6 or more, or allow 2 or less. They are up around 90%. That is where the Cardinals should be, not in the mid 70’s.

Have a happy and safe Halloween, or Dia de los Muertos, whichever you prefer.

Today on Pinstripe Alley – 10/30/26

ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - OCTOBER 28: Jake Bauers #9 of the Milwaukee Brewers celebrates after making the final out during the ninth inning against Richie Palacios #1 of the Tampa Bay Rays in game five of the 2026 World Series at Tropicana Field on October 28, 2026 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images) | Getty Images

We’re fully in offseason mode now, as the Brewers’ celebration continues and the rest of the league prepares what moves they can make before the CBA expires. There were a couple of minor trades completed, both involving the Red Sox, and there were a couple of player options decided on — expect plenty more to come as teams whittle down their 40-man rosters and the free agent pool gets finalized. We’ll at least get to determine who gets qualifying offers and who elects free agency before transactions freeze, and it will be interesting to see if any extensions come in during this time period as the game’s salary structure is under the microscope.

We’ve got a couple things on the docket for you here, starting with Andres giving out the latest report card to Cody Bellinger (spoiler, he got a passing grade). Then Andrew will wish a happy birthday to Mickey Rivers, and in the afternoon Josh will reminisce on Gary Sanchez as the Kraken is now a World Series champion… well after his days in pinstripes.

Questions/Prompts:

1. With no more MLB games the rest of the year, what’s your interest level in following any of the other sports over the winter?

2. Any fun plans for Halloween weekend? Got a costume ready?

Excuses from Pirates, Bob Nutting don't hold up against Brewers World Series victory

The Milwaukee Brewers have been a better organization than the Pittsburgh Pirates for a long time. 

They’ve reached the MLB postseason 10 times in the 19 seasons since 2008, something the Pirates have achieved just three times in the same span. They’ve posted 14 winning records compared to the Pirates’ five. It’s not close. 

Still, Milwaukee’s lack of postseason success before this year allowed the Pirates front office the luxury of excusing the gap to a team that plays in a television market two thirds the size of Pittsburgh by casting both organizations as ultimately two unfortunate peas in the same small market pod. 

Not anymore. The Brewers’ dominant, 103-win 2026 capped with a World Series victory this week shreds the narrative that Pittsburgh cannot afford to succeed in MLB’s current economic system. 

One could also argue Kansas City’s 2015 World Series win did that, too. Or that Tampa Bay’s consistent competitiveness in the American League East division that’s loaded with high payroll teams demonstrated a clear path to competitiveness. Or that Cleveland’s eight playoff appearances in nine seasons in a similar market a mere two hours from Pittsburgh undercut the Pirates’ bellyaching about their economic disadvantages. 

Those arguments would all be correct. 

Pirates fans don’t see those American League teams up close very often, though. The Brewers amount to a much more intimate look in the proverbial mirror because of their status as a National League Central division rival. 

They’ve seen the rise of Brewers stars Brice Turang and Jackson Chourio up close. They’ve charted the success of Pirates ace Paul Skenes against Milwaukee counterpart Jacob Misiorowski. They’ve witnessed countless series losses to this franchise far from the bright spotlights of October. They’ve instead stewed in the ordinary embarrassment of getting blown out by this team on plenty of random, low-profile weekdays in April, May and June. 

That familiarity can only breed contempt for the fact that the Pirates were outspent by tens of millions of dollars by the Brewers this year. Spotrac puts Milwaukee at 19th in payroll at $146 million. The Pirates were 23rd at $106 million. 

Holding any team to a World Series standard is often unreasonable. Championships require as much good luck as they do proper management. So it’s reductive to ask why the Brewers can win a title when the Pirates can’t. 

What’s not unreasonable is asking why Pirates GM Ben Cherington appears poised to get an eighth season in 2027 despite exactly one winning record since 2020. 

Even that achievement came by the slimmest possible margin, as Pittsburgh barely slipped over .500 at 82-80 this season. And yet he’ll get the opportunity to continue, even as Brewers GM Matt Arnold has won a championship and four consecutive division titles despite being hired one year after Cherington. 

The most charitable explanation is that owner Bob Nutting doesn’t want to change front offices in the face of MLB’s expected push for the salary cap he has long coveted in collective bargaining negotiations this winter. That he’d rather bet on the owners breaking the players to create a more restrictive playing field on which Cherington can compete than meaningfully commit to improving his club’s situation. 

It’s a purely defeatist posture that looks as ridiculous as it is now that the Brewers – and not the high-payroll Los Angeles Dodgers – are the team holding the Commissioner’s Trophy. 

MLB is their sport now. They hold the same hand of cards as the Pirates, and they’ve taken the whole pot with it while Nutting and his mouthpieces have been happy to blame the dealer for being losers. 

It will be as easy as ever for Pittsburgh sports fans to see through that, regardless of where the sport ends up on the other side of the labor battle to come. 

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Excuses from Pirates, Bob Nutting don't hold up against Brewers World Series victory

Will MLB enter a lockout? Here's everything to know for the looming work stoppage

Will MLB enter a lockout? Here's everything to know for the looming work stoppage originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

A new MLB champion has been crowned, and now the baseball world will eagerly await a return to the diamond.

The timing of that return, however, is very much up in the air.

Major League Baseball owners and the MLB Players Association are a month away from a potential lockout. The two sides can work out a new collective bargaining agreement to prevent a work stoppage, but they are far apart on several key issues in labor discussions.

Those topics have to be negotiated and agreed upon, and they could shape the next half-decade of the league. Teams can’t return to play until both sides sign a new collective bargaining agreement.

When would a lockout begin, how long could it last and which issues are at the center of discussions? Here’s everything to know as the expiration date for the current CBA quickly approaches.

What is a lockout?

A lockout is a work stoppage when the owners of a sports league and the players’ union fail to agree on a collective bargaining agreement before the existing one expires. There are no games until the two sides agree on a new CBA.

Players are barred from team facilities and official activities during a lockout, they do not get paid and their images are expected to be removed from the league’s official website.

On the team side, franchises cannot sign players or make trades during a lockout, which could spark a free-agent frenzy in November.

When does the current MLB CBA expire?

The current collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the Major League Baseball Players Association will expire at 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1. It was signed on March 10, 2022, after a 99-day lockout.

Why is there going to be an MLB lockout?

The MLB and MLBPA are at odds over money, namely a potential salary cap, its impact on the competitive balance of the league and the ramifications for players’ earnings.

The league believes a salary cap would help level the playing field for its 30 ballclubs. The highest-spending team in 2026, New York Mets, had a payroll exceeding $346 million, per Spotrac. On the other end, the lowest-spending team, the Cleveland Guardians, had a payroll below $75 million.

“In order for this game to reach its full potential, we need to continue to address concerns that our fans have, particularly concerns that go to the core of what we’re about — that is, competitive balance,” commissioner Rob Manfred said in July. “We need to make sure that fans in markets at the beginning of the season have a realistic belief that their team has a chance to win.”

However, spending did not equate to winning in 2026. The final four teams were No. 2 (Los Angeles Dodgers), No. 19 (Milwaukee Brewers), No. 28 (Tampa Bay Rays) and No. 30 (Guardians).

The Dodgers’ acquisition of two-time Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal ahead of this year’s trade deadline fueled debate about the competitive advantage big spenders can afford. Months later, their three-peat bid came crashing down in the NLCS at the hands of the Brewers, who swept that series and defeated the Rays for their first World Series title.

“It’s further evidence that the league’s purported ‘competitive balance’ justification for a salary cap holds no water,” Bruce Meyer, the acting executive director of the MLB Players Association, told NBC News in a statement ahead of the World Series. “But that’s never been the real reason why they want a salary cap. They want it to juice their profits and franchise values.”

Local revenue shares will also be negotiated. The league wants to equalize those shares among all 30 teams, but it would come at a cost to high-earning teams.

The schedule has also been mentioned in labor talks.

In a recent bargaining session, MLB proposed cutting the regular season from 162 games to 154 games while expanding the Division Series from five games to seven starting in 2029. It also proposed having higher seeds choose their playoff opponent beginning in 2027.

“Returning to a 154-game schedule would allow us to introduce a weekly off-day, which is good for player health, while also creating a new national broadcast window to showcase our most exciting teams and players,” MLB spokesman Glen Caplin said. “A shorter regular season unlocks making October even better for our fans — with fewer weekday afternoon games, a longer Division Series and more opportunities to see the game’s best pitchers on the biggest stage. And allowing the top seeds to select their opponents in the first two rounds would create compelling storylines, intensify existing rivalries and create new ones.”

Other issues in labor discussions include the league’s drug-testing program and players wearing microphones in games for broadcast use.

How many games could MLB miss during the lockout?

It could be as few as zero, but there is no limit to the number of games that could be lost to a lockout.

When is the deadline for a new CBA?

There is no official deadline for the two sides to reach a new agreement, but there are certain cutoff dates where the season and league partners would be greatly affected.

The two sides were able to salvage a 162-game season in 2022 after agreeing to a new CBA on March 10, three weeks ahead of the originally scheduled Opening Day. The start of the regular season was pushed back a week to April 7, the end of the season was extended three days and nine-inning doubleheaders were added to make up for a condensed schedule. Even if MLB cancels early games next spring, they could reappear in the schedule if an agreement is reached shortly after.

Should the lockout persist later into the spring, it could impact the league’s broadcast partners. The Athletic, citing people briefed on MLB’s rights agreements, reported that the league’s national broadcast contracts would extend an additional year to 2029 if 60 or more games are cut from each team’s 2027 schedule. Local broadcasters could feel the affects even sooner if games are lost in the lockout.

Looking back at past MLB lockouts

There have been nine strikes and lockouts in major league history:

1972 MLB strike: Canceled 86 games. The owners conceded after 13 days.

1973 MLB lockout: Canceled no games. Owners and the MLBPA agreed on a three-year CBA and spring training games resumed.

1976 MLB lockout: Canceled no games. Players were locked out of spring training the first few weeks of March. No regular-season games were missed. 

1980 MLB strike: Canceled no games. Players went on strike late in spring training and an agreement was reached before the beginning of the regular season.

1981 MLB strike: Canceled 713 games. The MLBPA went on strike after games on June 11 and games didn’t resume until Aug.10.

1985 MLB strike: Canceled no games. This in-season strike lasted from Aug. 6-7, but the games missed were made up at the end of the season.

1990 MLB lockout: Canceled no games. This lockout destroyed spring training and pushed the start of the season back a week, but the full 162-game season was played. 

1994–95 MLB strike: Canceled 938 games and the entire 1994 postseason, including the World Series. At the time, it was the longest work stoppage in professional sports history (since surpassed by the 2004-05 NHL lockout).

2021-22 MLB lockout: Canceled no games. The first two series of the regular season, plus all of spring training, were originally canceled, but a 162-game season was salvaged when the two sides agreed to end the lockout on March 10.

Will MLB enter a lockout? Here's everything to know for the looming work stoppage

Will MLB enter a lockout? Here's everything to know for the looming work stoppage originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

A new MLB champion has been crowned, and now the baseball world will eagerly await a return to the diamond.

The timing of that return, however, is very much up in the air.

Major League Baseball owners and the MLB Players Association are a month away from a potential lockout. The two sides can work out a new collective bargaining agreement to prevent a work stoppage, but they are far apart on several key issues in labor discussions.

Those topics have to be negotiated and agreed upon, and they could shape the next half-decade of the league. Teams can’t return to play until both sides sign a new collective bargaining agreement.

When would a lockout begin, how long could it last and which issues are at the center of discussions? Here’s everything to know as the expiration date for the current CBA quickly approaches.

What is a lockout?

A lockout is a work stoppage when the owners of a sports league and the players’ union fail to agree on a collective bargaining agreement before the existing one expires. There are no games until the two sides agree on a new CBA.

Players are barred from team facilities and official activities during a lockout, they do not get paid and their images are expected to be removed from the league’s official website.

On the team side, franchises cannot sign players or make trades during a lockout, which could spark a free-agent frenzy in November.

When does the current MLB CBA expire?

The current collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the Major League Baseball Players Association will expire at 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1. It was signed on March 10, 2022, after a 99-day lockout.

Why is there going to be an MLB lockout?

The MLB and MLBPA are at odds over money, namely a potential salary cap, its impact on the competitive balance of the league and the ramifications for players’ earnings.

The league believes a salary cap would help level the playing field for its 30 ballclubs. The highest-spending team in 2026, New York Mets, had a payroll exceeding $346 million, per Spotrac. On the other end, the lowest-spending team, the Cleveland Guardians, had a payroll below $75 million.

“In order for this game to reach its full potential, we need to continue to address concerns that our fans have, particularly concerns that go to the core of what we’re about — that is, competitive balance,” commissioner Rob Manfred said in July. “We need to make sure that fans in markets at the beginning of the season have a realistic belief that their team has a chance to win.”

However, spending did not equate to winning in 2026. The final four teams were No. 2 (Los Angeles Dodgers), No. 19 (Milwaukee Brewers), No. 28 (Tampa Bay Rays) and No. 30 (Guardians).

The Dodgers’ acquisition of two-time Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal ahead of this year’s trade deadline fueled debate about the competitive advantage big spenders can afford. Months later, their three-peat bid came crashing down in the NLCS at the hands of the Brewers, who swept that series and defeated the Rays for their first World Series title.

“It’s further evidence that the league’s purported ‘competitive balance’ justification for a salary cap holds no water,” Bruce Meyer, the acting executive director of the MLB Players Association, told NBC News in a statement ahead of the World Series. “But that’s never been the real reason why they want a salary cap. They want it to juice their profits and franchise values.”

Local revenue shares will also be negotiated. The league wants to equalize those shares among all 30 teams, but it would come at a cost to high-earning teams.

The schedule has also been mentioned in labor talks.

In a recent bargaining session, MLB proposed cutting the regular season from 162 games to 154 games while expanding the Division Series from five games to seven starting in 2029. It also proposed having higher seeds choose their playoff opponent beginning in 2027.

“Returning to a 154-game schedule would allow us to introduce a weekly off-day, which is good for player health, while also creating a new national broadcast window to showcase our most exciting teams and players,” MLB spokesman Glen Caplin said. “A shorter regular season unlocks making October even better for our fans — with fewer weekday afternoon games, a longer Division Series and more opportunities to see the game’s best pitchers on the biggest stage. And allowing the top seeds to select their opponents in the first two rounds would create compelling storylines, intensify existing rivalries and create new ones.”

Other issues in labor discussions include the league’s drug-testing program and players wearing microphones in games for broadcast use.

How many games could MLB miss during the lockout?

It could be as few as zero, but there is no limit to the number of games that could be lost to a lockout.

When is the deadline for a new CBA?

There is no official deadline for the two sides to reach a new agreement, but there are certain cutoff dates where the season and league partners would be greatly affected.

The two sides were able to salvage a 162-game season in 2022 after agreeing to a new CBA on March 10, three weeks ahead of the originally scheduled Opening Day. The start of the regular season was pushed back a week to April 7, the end of the season was extended three days and nine-inning doubleheaders were added to make up for a condensed schedule. Even if MLB cancels early games next spring, they could reappear in the schedule if an agreement is reached shortly after.

Should the lockout persist later into the spring, it could impact the league’s broadcast partners. The Athletic, citing people briefed on MLB’s rights agreements, reported that the league’s national broadcast contracts would extend an additional year to 2029 if 60 or more games are cut from each team’s 2027 schedule. Local broadcasters could feel the affects even sooner if games are lost in the lockout.

Looking back at past MLB lockouts

There have been nine strikes and lockouts in major league history:

1972 MLB strike: Canceled 86 games. The owners conceded after 13 days.

1973 MLB lockout: Canceled no games. Owners and the MLBPA agreed on a three-year CBA and spring training games resumed.

1976 MLB lockout: Canceled no games. Players were locked out of spring training the first few weeks of March. No regular-season games were missed. 

1980 MLB strike: Canceled no games. Players went on strike late in spring training and an agreement was reached before the beginning of the regular season.

1981 MLB strike: Canceled 713 games. The MLBPA went on strike after games on June 11 and games didn’t resume until Aug.10.

1985 MLB strike: Canceled no games. This in-season strike lasted from Aug. 6-7, but the games missed were made up at the end of the season.

1990 MLB lockout: Canceled no games. This lockout destroyed spring training and pushed the start of the season back a week, but the full 162-game season was played. 

1994–95 MLB strike: Canceled 938 games and the entire 1994 postseason, including the World Series. At the time, it was the longest work stoppage in professional sports history (since surpassed by the 2004-05 NHL lockout).

2021-22 MLB lockout: Canceled no games. The first two series of the regular season, plus all of spring training, were originally canceled, but a 162-game season was salvaged when the two sides agreed to end the lockout on March 10.

Will MLB enter a lockout? Here's everything to know for the looming work stoppage

Will MLB enter a lockout? Here's everything to know for the looming work stoppage originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area

A new MLB champion has been crowned, and now the baseball world will eagerly await a return to the diamond.

The timing of that return, however, is very much up in the air.

Major League Baseball owners and the MLB Players Association are a month away from a potential lockout. The two sides can work out a new collective bargaining agreement to prevent a work stoppage, but they are far apart on several key issues in labor discussions.

Those topics have to be negotiated and agreed upon, and they could shape the next half-decade of the league. Teams can’t return to play until both sides sign a new collective bargaining agreement.

When would a lockout begin, how long could it last and which issues are at the center of discussions? Here’s everything to know as the expiration date for the current CBA quickly approaches.

What is a lockout?

A lockout is a work stoppage when the owners of a sports league and the players’ union fail to agree on a collective bargaining agreement before the existing one expires. There are no games until the two sides agree on a new CBA.

Players are barred from team facilities and official activities during a lockout, they do not get paid and their images are expected to be removed from the league’s official website.

On the team side, franchises cannot sign players or make trades during a lockout, which could spark a free-agent frenzy in November.

When does the current MLB CBA expire?

The current collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the Major League Baseball Players Association will expire at 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1. It was signed on March 10, 2022, after a 99-day lockout.

Why is there going to be an MLB lockout?

The MLB and MLBPA are at odds over money, namely a potential salary cap, its impact on the competitive balance of the league and the ramifications for players’ earnings.

The league believes a salary cap would help level the playing field for its 30 ballclubs. The highest-spending team in 2026, New York Mets, had a payroll exceeding $346 million, per Spotrac. On the other end, the lowest-spending team, the Cleveland Guardians, had a payroll below $75 million.

“In order for this game to reach its full potential, we need to continue to address concerns that our fans have, particularly concerns that go to the core of what we’re about — that is, competitive balance,” commissioner Rob Manfred said in July. “We need to make sure that fans in markets at the beginning of the season have a realistic belief that their team has a chance to win.”

However, spending did not equate to winning in 2026. The final four teams were No. 2 (Los Angeles Dodgers), No. 19 (Milwaukee Brewers), No. 28 (Tampa Bay Rays) and No. 30 (Guardians).

The Dodgers’ acquisition of two-time Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal ahead of this year’s trade deadline fueled debate about the competitive advantage big spenders can afford. Months later, their three-peat bid came crashing down in the NLCS at the hands of the Brewers, who swept that series and defeated the Rays for their first World Series title.

“It’s further evidence that the league’s purported ‘competitive balance’ justification for a salary cap holds no water,” Bruce Meyer, the acting executive director of the MLB Players Association, told NBC News in a statement ahead of the World Series. “But that’s never been the real reason why they want a salary cap. They want it to juice their profits and franchise values.”

Local revenue shares will also be negotiated. The league wants to equalize those shares among all 30 teams, but it would come at a cost to high-earning teams.

The schedule has also been mentioned in labor talks.

In a recent bargaining session, MLB proposed cutting the regular season from 162 games to 154 games while expanding the Division Series from five games to seven starting in 2029. It also proposed having higher seeds choose their playoff opponent beginning in 2027.

“Returning to a 154-game schedule would allow us to introduce a weekly off-day, which is good for player health, while also creating a new national broadcast window to showcase our most exciting teams and players,” MLB spokesman Glen Caplin said. “A shorter regular season unlocks making October even better for our fans — with fewer weekday afternoon games, a longer Division Series and more opportunities to see the game’s best pitchers on the biggest stage. And allowing the top seeds to select their opponents in the first two rounds would create compelling storylines, intensify existing rivalries and create new ones.”

Other issues in labor discussions include the league’s drug-testing program and players wearing microphones in games for broadcast use.

How many games could MLB miss during the lockout?

It could be as few as zero, but there is no limit to the number of games that could be lost to a lockout.

When is the deadline for a new CBA?

There is no official deadline for the two sides to reach a new agreement, but there are certain cutoff dates where the season and league partners would be greatly affected.

The two sides were able to salvage a 162-game season in 2022 after agreeing to a new CBA on March 10, three weeks ahead of the originally scheduled Opening Day. The start of the regular season was pushed back a week to April 7, the end of the season was extended three days and nine-inning doubleheaders were added to make up for a condensed schedule. Even if MLB cancels early games next spring, they could reappear in the schedule if an agreement is reached shortly after.

Should the lockout persist later into the spring, it could impact the league’s broadcast partners. The Athletic, citing people briefed on MLB’s rights agreements, reported that the league’s national broadcast contracts would extend an additional year to 2029 if 60 or more games are cut from each team’s 2027 schedule. Local broadcasters could feel the affects even sooner if games are lost in the lockout.

Looking back at past MLB lockouts

There have been nine strikes and lockouts in major league history:

1972 MLB strike: Canceled 86 games. The owners conceded after 13 days.

1973 MLB lockout: Canceled no games. Owners and the MLBPA agreed on a three-year CBA and spring training games resumed.

1976 MLB lockout: Canceled no games. Players were locked out of spring training the first few weeks of March. No regular-season games were missed. 

1980 MLB strike: Canceled no games. Players went on strike late in spring training and an agreement was reached before the beginning of the regular season.

1981 MLB strike: Canceled 713 games. The MLBPA went on strike after games on June 11 and games didn’t resume until Aug.10.

1985 MLB strike: Canceled no games. This in-season strike lasted from Aug. 6-7, but the games missed were made up at the end of the season.

1990 MLB lockout: Canceled no games. This lockout destroyed spring training and pushed the start of the season back a week, but the full 162-game season was played. 

1994–95 MLB strike: Canceled 938 games and the entire 1994 postseason, including the World Series. At the time, it was the longest work stoppage in professional sports history (since surpassed by the 2004-05 NHL lockout).

2021-22 MLB lockout: Canceled no games. The first two series of the regular season, plus all of spring training, were originally canceled, but a 162-game season was salvaged when the two sides agreed to end the lockout on March 10.

Design the 2027 Guardians With a Fun Roster Tool

View of a 'Jack of Spades' from a deck of playing cards (printed in Frankfurt, Germany), circa 1875. (Photo by Transcendental Graphics/Getty Images) | Getty Images

It’s the offseason so it’s time to check the latest roster-building websites out.

Everyone, please check out www.dealinthecards.com/gm

Here, I have made an opening salvo at what would be an aggressive, yet realistic, offseason for the Guardians.

-They trade for Alec Burleson from the Cardinals (trading Welbyn Francisca, Ryan Cesarini and Slade Cecconi) and Gabriel Hughes (trading Kyle Manzardo, Franco Aleman and Braylon Doughty) from the Rockies.

-They sign Alex Vesia in free agency at 2 years/$16M.

-They add Justin Campbell, Franklin Gomez, Jacob Zibin, Jaison Chourio and Tommy Hawke to the 40-man.

-They keep David Fry for depth (he still has 2 options).

-They let Matt Festa, Blake Perkins and Shawn Armstrong go.

-The starting lineup is very left-hander heavy, but the bench features guy who can all swing it from the right side. I see Genao getting starts at short, second and third, and maybe getting reps in center. Adell and Burleson platoon, essentially, and Burleson can play first. Angel platoons with Ingle in left, and Ingle can continue to get some reps at catcher, also.

Payroll is a very sustainable $110M.

Try your hand, save the image and post it in the comments below!

Brewers bring World Series trophy to Packers game — then hit iconic Lambeau Leap celebration

An image collage containing 2 images, Image 1 shows Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Sal Frelick leaps into the stands to celebrate with fans, Image 2 shows The Milwaukee Brewers display the World Series trophy to the crowd at Lambeau Field

The Brewers kept the World Series celebration going on Thursday, taking the Commissioner’s Trophy to Lambeau Field in Green Bay for Thursday night’s Packers-Panthers game. 

Brewers pitcher Brandon Woodruff led the Brewers onto the field during the first half of the “Thursday Night Football” game to thunderous cheers from the fans at Lambeau as a number of Milwaukee players followed him out of the tunnel, clapping and pumping up the crowd.

One Brewers player even partook in a time-honored Lambeau Field tradition. 

Right fielder Sal Frelick performed a Lambeau Leap to the delight of the crowd, throwing up his hand in the air as the fans mobbed him in jubilant celebration. 

The Milwaukee players were later shown on the video board with the trophy while they appeared to be seated in a suite, wearing cheesehead hats that had the word champion written on the side.

Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Sal Frelick leaps into the stands to celebrate with fans on Oct. 29, 2026, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Frelick began pumping up the crowd once again when he noticed the camera was stationed on him. 

The Milwaukee Brewers display the World Series trophy to the crowd during a time out at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. on Oct. 29, 2026. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Brewers’ presence seemed to rub off on the Packers as they went into halftime with a 20-10 lead over the Panthers. 

Milwaukee is celebrating the franchise’s first World Series title, which it captured on Wednesday night in a 5-1 win over the Rays in Game 5 in Tampa. 

The festivities will continue on Friday when the city of Milwaukee hosts a championship parade for the Brewers. 

MLB free agency: Which Dodgers, Padres and Giants players have hit the market?

An image collage containing 3 images, Image 1 shows Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal celebrates after striking out an Atlanta Braves batter, Image 2 shows San Diego Padres pitcher Michael King delivers a pitch, Image 3 shows San Francisco Giants relief pitcher JT Brubaker after getting pulled in the ninth inning against the Colorado Rockies

The MLB offseason is officially underway with the Brewers crowned as World Series champions.

The Dodgers, who stood behind Milwaukee and the Fall Classic, lost a number of players to free agency Thursday morning.

Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal celebrates after striking out Atlanta Braves’ Austin Riley during the fifth inning of Game 1 of a National League Division Series baseball game Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026, in Los Angeles. AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill

Dodgers free agents

A total of nine Dodgers players have hit the open market:

  1. Tarik Skubal (starting pitcher)
  2. Alex Vesia (relief pitcher)
  3. Kris Bubic (starting pitcher)
  4. Eric Lauer (starting pitcher)
  5. Kiké Hernandez (utilityman)
  6. Evan Phillips (relief pitcher)
  7. Blake Treinen (relief pitcher)
  8. Brusdar Graterol (relief pitcher)
  9. Miguel Rojas (infielder)

While Rojas is technically listed as a free agent, he announced his retirement after the Dodgers were eliminated from the National League Championship Series.

Padres free agents

The Padres, who also faced the Brewers in the postseason amid their unsuccessful World Series run, lost nine players to free agency.

  1. Adrian Morejon (relief pitcher)
  2. Ty France (first baseman)
  3. Casey Mize (starting pitcher)
  4. Robbie Ray (starting pitcher)
  5. Jason Adam (relief pitcher)
  6. Walker Buehler (starting pitcher)
  7. Ramon Laureano (outfielder)
  8. Luis Rengifo (utlityman)
  9. Austin Hays (outfielder)

San Diego has also multiple players with player options, team options and mutual options this winter. Michael King, who had a $28 million option for 2027, opted out of his deal with the Padres likely in hopes of finding a long-term deal on the market.

San Diego Padres pitcher Michael King delivers against the Chicago Cubs in the sixth inning of Game 1 of the National League Wild Card baseball playoff series Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2026, in San Diego. AP Photo/Gregory Bull

Relievers Yuki Matsui and Wandy Peralta also have player options for next season. The deadline for player options is Monday, Nov. 2.

Starting pitcher Nick Pivetta and relief pitcher Kyle Hart both have team options for the 2027 season. The Padres are expected to negotiate a new contract with Pivetta, who has a $14 million option for next season.

Team options have to be decided by Monday, Nov. 2.

Three Padres have mutual options this offseason: Miguel Andujar (infielder), Griffin Canning (starting pitcher), and Lucas Giolito (starting pitcher). All mutual options are expected to be declined by Monday, Nov. 2.

San Francisco Giants relief pitcher JT Brubaker after getting pulled in the ninth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Giants Free Agents

As for San Francisco, the Giants had only one player become a free agent at the start of the offseason — JT Brubaker (relief pitcher).

Tigers acquire infielder Tsung-Che Cheng from the Red Sox, per report

Boston, MA - July 20: Boston Red Sox shortstop Tsung-Che Cheng celebrates scoring a run. The Boston Red Sox played the Baltimore Orioles at Fenway Park on July 20, 2026. (Photo by Christian Kantosky/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) | Boston Globe via Getty Images

Well look at that, the Detroit Tigers have already made a trade. Andrew Parker of Sox Prospects reports, and Chris Cotillo confirms, that the Tigers have acquired infielder Tsung-Che Cheng from the Boston Red Sox for cash considerations. Cheng will join fellow Taiwanese infielder Hao-Yu Lee in Detroit. The 25-year-old left-handed hitter is a solid shortstop with a little bit of major league experience.

The Red Sox 40-man roster was getting a bit crowded, so this clears a spot for them. Of course, the Tigers 40-man roster is also a little crowded with eight players due to be added back to the 40-man roster off the 60-day injured list. The point here appears to be developing some other options at the shortstop position beyond Kevin McGonigle. John Peck gives them a right-handed bat, and Cheng a left-handed one. If this spells trouble for anyone on the Tigers it’s probably Trey Sweeney.

Cheng signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates as a 19-year-old international free agent for $380,000 back in 2019. The Pirates finally released him last offseason and he was picked up by the Washington Nationals and then placed on waivers, where the Red Sox acquired him.

Cheng has some tools. He’s fast, he can play an average major league shortstop, and he has experience at second base, and a little at third as well. The problem is that he strikes out quite a bit, and his power is just fringe average. He struck out 23.8 percent of the time in Triple-A last year, though he does walk a good amount, 13.5 percent in 2026 at Triple-A, and posts solid chase rates. Still, he does swing a miss more than you’d like, and needs to trim that down to be a regular platoon player. More likely the Tigers want to work with him and stash him in Toledo with Trei Cruz gone, Sweeney lost and not recovering from a major shoulder surgery, and few other shortstop options beyond McGonigle and Peck.

Obviously the offseason just began, and for all we know, Cheng will end up getting waived by the Tigers before the offseason finally ends. He’s out of options and not a particularly notable player. For now this is a depth pickup. Perhaps they see something to unlock in his bat, and it doesn’t hurt that Hao-Yu Lee and Cheng are familar with one another as former teammates for Chinese Taipei’s 2019 U-18 World Champion team. Sometimes a little more comfort factor for international players can help.

Mets' Bo Bichette opting in for second year crucial first step towards pivotal offseason

Bo Bichette’s decision to opt into a second year with the Mets was not a surprise to anyone in the organization. He had one of the worst statistical seasons of his career offensively – not exactly the kind of year players try to ride into free agency. He spoke glowingly of new manager Andy Green. And he seemed to find comfort in the clubhouse and on the New York stage – as if he had arrived with something to prove and finally remembered he was capable of proving it.

But while the Mets have expected for several weeks now that Bichette would be back, his return nevertheless qualifies as crucial to their offseason. With Bichette, the Mets lineup in 2027 will include all the key components of a group that posted the fifth-best OPS in the majors after August 1… even with Juan Soto injured for part of that time.

The top of the order looked versatile and energetic when Francisco Lindor was healthy and leading off and Soto was healthy and hitting second and Bichette was behind them, putting the ball in play with Carson Benge there to drive everyone in. Bichette’s return means the Mets can build on the offense they unearthed late last year, rather than having to reconfigure it.

But because Bichette’s decision was not a surprise, expectations for the Mets season should not pivot because of it. They still need, and plan to pursue, starting pitching. They will still explore options to upgrade offensively at first base, though exactly how high they will aim – and how much money or prospect capital they are willing to spend there – remains unclear.

And they still seem likely to give one of their infield prospects a chance somewhere in the majors next season. With Bichette back, the most obvious place for a prospect to elbow in would be second, though because Bichette has also played second base, the Mets could make room for a prospect at third.

Still, Stearns’s affinity for defensive versatility does not necessarily mean the Mets could not acquire a third baseman not yet imagined. The surest thing for the Mets next year would be to pencil Bichette in at third, then find a proven offensive producer at second base instead of relying on some combination of Marcus Semien, Brett Baty, and/or a prospect. But if the market yielded a proven third baseman, the Mets could theoretically also acquire one of those, move Bichette to second and figure out what to do with Semien and Baty later. Internally, the Mets felt their defense did improve last year, even with Bichette, Baty, and others at new positions.

At this moment, however, the Mets seem perfectly willing to believe in their in-house options at second base: After watching what Benge and A.J. Ewing did after being called up last year, one can forgive the Mets' optimism about what Jefferson Rojas, Emilien Petre, or Mitch Voit could do upon arrival.

Speaking of Benge and Ewing, Bichette’s return will impact the Mets’ lineup through them as well: Bichette, their de facto older brother and alleged batting practice fashion inspiration, will be back to help them navigate the toughest thing they have had to navigate so far: Year two.

Purple Row After Dark: What baseball thing did you get (really) wrong in 2026?

DENVER, COLORADO - MAY 31: Michael Lorenzen #24 of the Colorado Rockies looks on from the bench in a game against the San Francisco Giants at Coors Field on May 31, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) | Getty Images

A lot happened with the 2026 Colorado Rockies.

They were certainly less bad than they were in 2025. (Let us never speak of that wretched year again.) But they were still pretty bad.

Back on Opening Day when we were so much younger, we all made predictions, which you may read here and here.

But the 2026 MLB season is over with the Milwaukee Brewers winning the World Series, “Ranking the Rockies” continuing apace, and the offseason beginning in earnest.

So as we sum up the year that was and look to the one that will come, here’s tonight’s question for all you Purple Row Night Owls: What did you get wrong about 2026?

Me, I thought Michael Lorenzen would be a positive addition to the rotation, and if you’d told me in March that he would be DFA’d I wouldn’t have believed you.

But here we are.

Let us know yours in the comments.


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Michael King has opted out

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - OCTOBER 04: Michael King #34 of the San Diego Padres heads to the dugout prior to game two of the National League Division Series against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on October 04, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images) | Getty Images

As was expected throughout all of baseball, San Diego Padres ace starter Michael King has opted out of his contract with the team. King signed a three-year deal before this season and had $58 million remaining over the next two years. By opting out, he receives a $5 million buyout for 2027, effectively giving him a 2026 salary of $22 million.

No quick contract agreement

His opt-out indicates that there was no quick resolution to the wish on both sides for King to remain a Padre. Widely considered the second-best pitcher to enter the free agent market, after Tarik Skubal, King figures to command a multi-year, high-value deal. 

In a recent article in The Athletic, Jim Bowden estimated a four-year, $118 million deal. If that is close to accurate, it is only somewhat more than the right-hander would have gotten with his Padres deal, but with the addition of two more years. At 31 years of age, King is still in his prime and could easily fulfill a four-year deal with that value.

What will free agency bring for King

After a less-than-enjoyable turn through free agency last year (King expressed his dissatisfaction with the process at his signing press conference), the process will most likely prove to be a more lucrative experience this time around. King had just come off an injury-plagued season in 2025 when he re-signed with the Padres during the last offseason. His performance this year, a 2.59 ERA over 100 2/3 innings, showed he is fully back from those injuries and is a staff ace.

Padres are short starters 

His value to the Padres is probably higher than with any other team that can make offers to the New York native. 

The Padres have Randy Vasquez as the only reliable starter on the roster. 

Joe Musgrove returned to the team with three postseason innings out of the bullpen, but his presence in the rotation next season is not assured.

Nick Pivetta has a $14 million team option after missing much of the season with a strained flexor tendon. This is the second season in a row that Pivetta has missed significant time with the same injury. His reliability and health are in question, and that large of an option has to be a major source of anxiety for the organization.

JP Sears is not an effective major league starter for the Padres. At best, he provides emergency depth in the minor leagues. Jhony Brito is unproven and recently completed rehab for his Tommy John surgery, certainly not a reliable option either.

All other pitchers who started for the Friars in 2026 are free agents as of Thursday morning.

Will anything change in the next five days?

There is a five-day window of exclusive negotiations for the team and the free agent. After that, the player is free to talk to any other organization.

If King wants a home prior to the uncertainty of the labor situation, he will have until Dec. 1 to make a decision.

The resources of the Padres are unknown at this point. In his season-ending media availability, general manager A.J. Preller alluded to the meetings that would be taking place within the organization to decide a budget and a plan for the offseason. No results from those discussions have been shared with the public.

It remains to be seen what financial flexibility the team will have for signing players before the new CBA is active. Preller hinted that there was some money to spend, but no one knows how much that will be.

Mets claim INF Kyren Paris off waivers from Angels, DFA OF Cristian Pache

With the MLB offseason officially underway, the Mets kicked things by claiming infielder/outfielder Kyren Paris off waivers from the Los Angeles Angels. 

To clear a spot on the 40-man roster, New York designated outfielder Cristian Pache, who played in 15 games for the Mets last season, for assignment.

Paris played in just eight games with the Halos in 2026 after appearing in 44 games the year before where he hit six home runs in 126 at-bats. The youngster also added four doubles, one triple, seven steals and 20 runs scored to give him a 0.8 WAR as a reserve player. 

About to turn 25 years old in November, Paris has spent his entire four-year career in Los Angeles where he's slashed .147/.238/.272 in a super utility role. In 88 career games (72 starts), Paris has played second base, shortstop and all three outfield positions, although the infield is where he's the best defensively.

Paris has spent the majority of his career in the minors, splitting time last season between Double-A and Triple-A. Despite a lackluster performance in Double-A, Paris shined in 62 games for Triple-A where he slashed .307/.427/.554 and showed off his power and speed with 31 extra-base hits, a .981 OPS and 16 steals.

In 455 career games in the minors, Paris has hit .243 with a .779 OPS and 150 steals.

As for Pache, he joined the Mets last offseason on a minor league deal with an invite to spring training before eventually signing a one-year deal worth $850,000. The soon-to-be-28-year-old fought for the club's fourth outfield spot in spring training and despite a solid showing, Pache began the season in the minors.

After making his MLB debut with the Atlanta Braves in 2020, Pache has been a journeyman and has played for six different organizations. He's never been able to produce consistently at the plate and even struggled across 93 games with Triple-A Syracuse this season.

The outfielder was called up by the Mets in early August for depth and went 1-for-8 at the plate.

ESPN ranks Tigers seventh best in first postseason power rankings

Aug 18, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Konnor Griffin (left) and Detroit Tigers center fielder Max Clark (middle) and third baseman Kevin McGonigle (right) pose for a photo before their game at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This really shouldn’t be that surprising. The Tigers have one of the better core groups in baseball now, and while their rotation has question marks due to injury and inexperience, it’s certainly a pretty talented group with Framber Valdez as the veteran, and Jackson Jobe, Troy Melton, Keider Montero, River Ryan, and Reese Olson lined up behind the veteran lefty. Obviously they need to build a much better bullpen, but this shouldn’t really be that hard. We’ll see how hard the front office decides to make it.

The Tigers were 14th in run scoring, and 11th in team wRC+ in 2026, despite getting gutted for a good six weeks by a huge wave of injuries from mid-April through May. Max Clark has only just arrived, while Hao-Yu Lee and Eduardo Valencia broke out with the bats in the second half. They still have plenty of young hitting talent coming behind them as well. They were also 6th best in team ERA and 10th best in team fielding independent pitching (FIP). The defense got better as Clark and other young outfielders were added to the mix. It would really help that cause if John Peck can insert himself into the mix next year.

The Brewers are number one on the power rankings, as you’d expect. The Dodgers and Yankees check in second and third. The Rays, Red Sox, and Braves round out the 4-6 slots, with the Tigers in seventh.

Here is ESPN’s argument for the Tigers in 2027.

1. Their plus-71 run differential was fourth in the AL, not that far behind the Rays (plus-86) or Red Sox (plus-78), and that’s a positive indicator for the following season.

2. They have key young players to build around in Kevin McGonigle (7.1 WAR as a rookie) and Max Clark (1.2 WAR in 51 games), plus several rookies ready to contribute in 2027, including Ryan, who came over in the Tarik Skubal trade.

3. Troy Melton (2.76 ERA in 20 starts), Jackson Jobe (3.91 ERA in nine starts) and Ryan are ready to fill the spots of Skubal and Casey Mize.

Yes, Detroit will need to address the bullpen, but this is still a deep roster that underperformed in 2026.

The Tigers have Max Anderson, Zyhir Hope, and Josue Briceño all close to pushing their way to the major leagues. The big question remains having enough pitching to be able to construct a better bullpen. We certainly wouldn’t hate the addition of a good all around position player into the mix, but that doesn’t seem very likely right now. Maybe the picture will look a little different once the CBA is complete.

Ask the Guardians how they feel about this and they’ll say it doesn’t matter. They’re right, but there is a good argument for the Tigers if they can clean up their weaknesses this offseason. How do you feel about the Tigers getting ranked seventh overall heading into the offseason after a very underachieving sort of season in 2026?