Category: MLB

The 2026 season for the St. Louis Cardinals has come to a close. We were told this team wouldn’t prioritize “winning over everything” after jettisoning several veterans in the offseason. What came of that was a season in which we saw nearly an entire roster’s worth of players make MLB debuts, a new young core start to take shape, and an unexpected first half of winning that should set the foundation for seasons to come. Before the season began, our friend Dan Szymborski, over at Fangraphs, posted his annual zips projections for all the Cardinals players. Based on those projections and what actually took place, let’s take a quick run-through of the roster and hand out some season grades.

Catchers

Ivan Herrera

Projection: .274/.362/.438, .349 wOBA, 127 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR

Production: .243/.353/.384, .330 wOBA, 110 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR

In a season in which Ivan Herrera was an Ironman and managed to avoid the IL all season long, and one where, metrically speaking, his defense behind the plate was mostly underwhelming, he found his way to a productive season with the bat even though it was with considerably less thump. His projected ISO coming into 2026 was .164 and only managed a .141, which is about league average. For a big-league catcher thats above average offensive production. For a primary DH, that is fairly mediocre. Given what we saw from 2025 in terms of impact and the significant step back in the slugging for Herrera this season, I’d say this season was average, if a little disappointing.

Grade: C-

Pedro Pages

Projection: .226/.278/.351, .275 wOBA, 76 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR

Production: .213/.265/.309, .256 wOBA, 60 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR

Coming into 2026, it seemed as though Pages and Herrera were going to be the two primary time-share catchers with Yohel Pozo rotating in from time to time and functioning as the primary RHH off the bench. That lasted all of about 8 weeks into the season, when Jimmy Crooks forced his way into the conversation and pushed Pages into the 3rd catcher role for roughly 2/3 of the season. Pages’ bat had fairly low expectations put on it coming into the season, and you combine that with pretty much no playing time, you get stat lines like this. Pages still delivered when it came to throwing out base stealers, and his reputation as a high-class game caller and leader in the clubhouse still remained, though players get very little credit for that, I know some will bluster about the passed balls and blocking, and some of that is very much on Pages to do a better job of getting in front of those, but I dont think it was as egregious as some fans perceive it to be, a lot of pitchers who were either young or featured poor command contributed to those numbers inflating. Overall, I think Pages is a quality backup catcher but should not be looked at as a primary backstop on a contending club. The ascension of young catchers will likely make Pages a roster casualty in one form or another this offseason.

Grade: D+

Jimmy Crooks

Projection: .241/.300/.369, .294 wOBA, 89 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR

Production: .179/.255/.336, .264 wOBA, 65 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR

Boy oh boy, what a roller coaster season of a year for Jimmy Crooks, from starting red hot in AAA and taking advantage of hitter-friendly environments, though he was still striking out and swinging and missing a ton, to a season at the big-league level where he was part of an interesting mix where Herrera wound up catching 3-5 days and Pages platooned with Crooks based on matchups the other 40% of the time. A large contingent of fans will argue he didn’t get the long, full run he should have; I would argue he didn’t make the most of his opportunities to force their hand to see more of him. Defensively, it was weird and really not up to par with what we had been sold on when it came to minor league evaluators’ scouting reports. Crooks also had a passed-ball problem which, given his and Page’s reputation, only further solidified my opinion that the optics of how poor it was were aided by erratic pitching. The swing-and-miss in his game is a huge issue; the loft-power style of his damage doesn’t play well in Busch, and his defensive display left a ton to be desired, and he’s been supplanted in the big leagues by Leo Bernal and is soon to be passed by Rainiel Rodriguez. I would argue Crooks is a change-of-scenery candidate, but perhaps the Cardinals won’t be too eager to pare back their catcher depth. This is one area of the roster STILL with a lot of options to sort through.

Grade: F

Leo Bernal

Projection: .230/.291/.344, .281 wOBA, 80 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR

Production: .280/.316/.441, .331 wOBA, 110 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR

Assuming Bernal performed at the pace he was on, roughly 0.5 fWAR per month, he would’ve finished as a 3-win catcher in 2026. Of the 111 qualified Catchers in 2026, only 6 posted an fWAR above 3, those being Adley Rutschman, William Contreras, Hunter Goodman, Carter Jensen, Dillon Dingler, and Gabriel Moreno. I realize and understand it’s a small sample size, but when you combine production with eye test, scouting information, and previous minor league performance, there are real reasons to buy into what Bernal did in September was not only real but also sustainable. Behind the dish, Bernal has a cannon for an arm; he has a reputation for working well with pitching staffs; he has shown adeptly that he can handle 1B on occasion; he is the total package of what you would want your starting catcher to be. No notes; go into 2027 as the guy and see how far he can go.

Grade: A+

Infielders

Alec Burleson

Projection: .277/.333/.444, .336 wOBA, 118 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR

Production: .279/.343/.473, .353 wOBA, 125 wRC+, 3.2 fWAR

After a 2025 season in which Manager Oli Marmol said no other player took more advantage of the “runway season” (drink) than Alec Burleson did, he followed up with another stellar performance. The MLB leader in RBI was one of the most productive players in the sport and should be the frontrunner for another Silver Slugger. I think there is little question about who you want up in a big situation other than Burly. The defense at 1B in terms of OAA: doesn’t love him, but the new “scoops” metric thinks he’s the best in the league at digging balls out of the dirt and saving his infielders an E. I expect there to be serious conversations in the offseason between Burleson and the Cardinals about an extension. The pure hitting ability and year-over-year proof of consistency and improvement lead me to the conclusion that he should be a player who will remain productive into his early to mid 30’s thus, the hand-wringing over an extension is mostly nonsense to me. Take the bird in the hand.

Grade: A+

JJ Wetherholt

Projection: .254/.340/.367, .315 wOBA, 103 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR

Production: .242/.339/.365, .318 wOBA, 101 wRC+, 4.5 fWAR

Pretty impressive stuff here by Dan and his ZIPS projection model. What he and very few of us accounted for was just how elite JJ would be defensively from day 1 at 2B. In my eyes, the clear Gold Glover at 2B, JJ was off to a rocket start in his season, but was slowed by injury, reportedly in late July, that lead to decline in production before ultimately landing him on the IL and his overall stats took a hit as a result. Showing poise in the batter’s box and is a prototypical leadoff man with 20/20 potential. The Cardinals already locked up their young star and we should expect encouraging growth year over year of JJ’s career. For his Rookie season it was above already high expectations.

Grade: B+

Masyn Winn

Projection: .252/.311/.378, .302 wOBA, 95 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR

Production: .232/.308/.317, .283 wOBA, 78 wRC+, 2.3 fWAR

Masyn Winn got off to a really weird slow start to the season from an offensive perspective. Batting cleanup on opening day and early on never really made much sense to me. Thankfully, other offensive pieces like Jordan Walker, Joshua Baez, and Leo Bernal stepped up and stepped in over the course of the season, pushing Winn down in the order to a more ideal place in the lineup. The defense remained just as exciting and highlight-reel as ever. Without much consistent thump or presence to Winn’s game, he is starting to mirror more of an Andrelton Simmons skillset than a Dansby Swanson one (20/20, Gold Glover) that I believed he could be, still could, though that hasn’t come to fruition yet. Winn is also dealing with yet another injury-plagued season, and going forward it will be hard not to have some sort of Lars Nootbaar-esque concern about injury with a Masyn Winn. I think defensively it was an as-advertised season; offensively there is still a lot to be desired.

Grade: C-

Nolan Gorman

Projection: .225/.303/.425, .315 wOBA, 104 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR

Production: .187/.275/.313, .263 wOBA, 65 wRC+, -0.5 fWAR

It was yet another disappointing season from former 1st-round pick Nolan Gorman. Caught between trying to make more contact and not making enough impact contact, it would seem as though we have seen the last of Nolan Gorman in a Cardinals uniform. Another season that resulted in a midseason demotion, and while he made good on some of the changes the organization had asked of him while there, the AAA production proved that, when he returned to the big-league level, it was just as feckless as it was before his demotion. Defensively, Gorman showed that returning to his natural position was one that was welcomed; it will do very little for his value, though, unfortunately. I hope that Gorman gets another shot elsewhere to see if a new voice could help him unlock his big power.

Grade: F

Blaze Jordan

Projection: .243/.291/.373, .290 wOBA, 86 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR

Production: .247/.276/.382, .284 wOBA, 79 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR

After an offseason in which Blaze wasn’t added to the 40-man roster, he, like Crooks, came out of the gate swinging a scorching hot bat that led to his promotion in early June, and right away he became a breath of fresh air after watching 9 weeks of Nolan Gorman carry a 35+% K rate. His ability to get the bat on the ball is a skill, though he chases too many pitches out of the zone, and he doesn’t take his walks. There is still more to be proven from Blaze before we are to assume he’s a capable everyday type of bat. He did show well against LHP and could ultimately be a platoon CI player, and there is a role for that type of player long term. The defense was up and down. At first, Blaze surprised us all, making rangy plays all over the hot corner; as time went on, you started to see some of the cracks, and it started costing the Cardinals runs. Could it take a step forward? Yes. A lot of what Blaze showed was unclear about what he could be long-term; if I could give an incomplete, I would.

Grade: C-

Thomas Saggese

Projection: .248/.301/.367, .293 wOBA, 89 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR

Production: .234/.295/.354, .288 wOBA, 81 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR

It was a strange start for Saggese, who opted to play for Team Italy in the WBC, thus making his inclusion on the roster a shakier proposition. Italy didn’t play Saggese, which clearly affected his build-up to the season. After a less-than-stellar showing as a utility player, Saggese was sent to Memphis, where he benefited from everyday at-bats and seemingly found his offensive footing again. When given the opportunity in late August into early September, Saggese showed some real everyday chops and flashed some power we hadn’t really seen from him at the big league level yet. So much so that he gave the front office something to think about heading into the offseason about his viability as the potential 3rd basemen in 2027. Defensively, his versatility is a plus, and his ability to capably handle short will prove valuable as Masyn Winn seems destined to get injured every season. So, I would expect him to have some kind of role on the club going into next season.

Grade: C-

Jose Fermin

Projection: .235/.331/.342, .303 wOBA, 95 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR

Production: .251/.312/.359, .298 wOBA, 88 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR

Coming into 2026, most fans saw Fermin as fungible 40-man roster fodder. What he proved to be this season was a very valuable utilty player filling in at multiple spots and playing competitive outfield reps and looking like the passable bench bat he had long been thought to be. Nothing about Fermin’s game screams anything more than that, but a useful piece for a club that will utilize it’s bench to win games on the margins.

Grade C-

Outfielders

Jordan Walker

Projection: .232/.296/.373, .293 wOBA, 89 wRC+, -0.2 fWAR

Production: .271/.329/.469, .346 wOBA, 120 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR

What a year for Jordan Walker, finally making good on all the hype and promise that came along with his prospect pedigree and draft selection. Most of you were thinking it was better for him to start in AAA, and I remember a lot of you pushing back against Manager Oli Marmol’s assertion that there was nothing he could tangibly do at AAA that would help him hit big-league pitching. That evaluation turned out to be correct. While there were still down periods, we saw more than our fair share of ups and flashes for Walker to tether himself to what success for him looks like, so when he gets out of sync he can correct it quicker. Defensively, he still has a cannon of an arm, and the OAA metric still doesn’t think he is all that great; at times, it can be a little clunky still. For the most part, using the eye test, he’s more than capable in RF and should only continue to improve with each game/rep. I dont know how any fan can look at 2026 for the reigning Home Run Derby champ as anything other than a tremendous success.

Grade: A+

Nathan Church

Projection: .252/.312/.353, .293 wOBA, 89 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR

Production: .249/.292/.367, .290 wOBA, 83 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR

The opening-day LF turned into the season-long starting CF after Victor Scott II couldn’t hold onto the job. It appears Church is penciled in as the expected starting CF heading into 2027, but there is nothing in that stat line that says you should accept that that spot is spoken for long term. The occasional pop and ability to do damage on breaking balls make Church a fine offensive contributor, more likely suited for a 4th outfielder role long term. Defensively, the arm is strong in CF, and he has the range and speed to track balls down in the gap and the athleticism to go up and take home runs away. Overall, I think it was a fairly underwhelming season for Church, even though he was just about as projected.

Grade: C-

Joshua Baez

Projection: .234/.308/.388, .305 wOBA, 97 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR

Production: .230/.278/.510, .335 wOBA, 113 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR

One of the most impressive power displays from a Cardinals minor leaguer in a few years, Joshua Baez arrival in St. Louis became quite inevitable by about June. The Cardinals opted to keep him down until the middle of August to retain his rookie eligibility and to continue working on his in-zone contact issues. What resulted was the greatest MLB debut in history and 4 weeks of impactful offense that the Cardinals lineup sorely lacked for most of the season. An Oblique injury ended Baez’s season prematurely, though there was little question about his viability going into next season regardless. A big athletic guy with raw defensive tools, Baez looked a little out of his element in a big league outfield at times. That will surely be cleaned up over time, and there’s very little concern over that long term. A successful season and one to build on as he looks to contend for ROTY in 2027.

Grade: B-

Bryan Torres

Projection: .278/.365/.357, .324 wOBA, 110 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR

Production: .229/.309/.331, .289 wOBA, 82 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR

Speaking of players who homered in their big-league debut. Bryan Torres was a useful bench bat for a majority of the season and was utilized as a contributor in pinch opportunities against RHP. A contact-oriented approach and the ability to take quality AB’s at 29 years old; there is very little projection involved in terms of role moving forward, but as a story grinding through the minor leagues and making his persevered debut. It was a welcome stabilizing addition to the roster. Capable of playing 2B and all 3 outfield spots. He doesn’t exactly have the arm for RF or 3B but can be useful in his limited spots. A capable bench piece.

Grade: D+

Victor Scott II

Projection: .224/.301/.319, .279 wOBA, 79 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR

Production: .193/.270/.253, .243 wOBA, 51 wRC+, -0.3 fWAR

Coming into 2026, the Cardinals internally had high expectations for what a Victor Scott season could look like. There was a big vocal push to pump him up, and unfortunately he wound up being more of a flat tire. It’s never seemed like Scott has been able to find his consistent footing at the big-league level despite a large sample of opportunity. Next to Nolan Gorman, Victor Scott II appears to be the next likeliest roster casualty this upcoming offseason, and perhaps a new organization will help him unlock a more consistent approach to find success. His time in St. Louis, based on his utilization, has come to an end.

Grade: F

Starting Rotation

Michael McGreevy

Projection: 154 IP, 3.92 ERA, 3.97 FIP, 17.2 K%, 1.9 fWAR

Production: 168.2 IP, 3.95 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 16.4 K%, 1.9 fWAR

In his first full season with the Birds on the Bat, Michael McGreevy has established himself as a legit big-league starter. On a contending team, he likely slots in somewhere near the back, but a guy who will reliably eat innings, give you a chance to win, and hover around a 4 ERA. When you talk about a steady, dependable back-end rotation piece in the dictionary, it’s a picture of Michael McGreevy.

Grade: C

Andre Pallante

Projection: 135.2 IP, 4.24 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 16.5 K%, 1.5 fWAR

Production: 157 IP, 3.61 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 16.2 K%, 2.7 fWAR

After a disastrous 2nd half of 2025, a lot of fans came into the season wondering what type of performance they would receive out of Andre Pallante, and the Cardinals’ patience was rewarded with an effective bounce-back season. Performing like a solid 3-4 starter in a contending rotation. Pallante’s outlier ability to get ground balls and use his gold-glove defenders behind him allows him to work efficiently and give the team a chance to win on a consistent basis. As Pallante wades deeper into the arbitration waters, his price tag will continue to go up. It may not be a cost-prohibitive number going into 2027 for the value he provides, but he may be a trade chip in the near future as more and more of the Cardinals’ young starters continue to ascend up the minor league system.

Grade: B+

Kyle Leahy
Projection: 86.2 IP, 4.05 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 20.9 K%, 0.7 fWAR

Production: 140 IP, 3.66 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 22.1 K%, 2.6 fWAR

I am eating virtual crow on this one. I did not think Kyle Leahy was going to be able to shift into another gear in his role as a starting pitcher, and I wrote about that in mid June. Facing the Padres at home, Kyle Leahy seemed to figure something out, and from that point to the end of the season, he pitched like the Cardinals’ best starting pitcher. Posting numbers comparable to a 3-4 starter, he looks the part after some trial and error in the first 2 months of the season. I’ll be fascinated to see if the Cardinals wind up having to decide between Leahy and Pallante over the next 12 months as they continue to promote young guys to the big leagues. Between the first 3 starters mentioned, the Cardinals are in a solid spot with the bridge rotation that will lead to their contending arms.

Grade: A-

Quinn Matthews

Projection: 101.1 IP, 4.35 ERA, 4.46 FIP, 22.4 K%, 0.8 fWAR

Production: 49.1 IP, 3.83 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 21.8 K%, 0.8 fWAR

Since the end of 2024, Quinn Matthews had been stuck at the AAA level trying to break through due to injury and poor command; he had to wait almost 2 full calendar years before getting his shot in a big-league rotation. After the trade of Dustin May and the injury to Hunter Dobbins, the every 5th day opportunity opened up, and Quinn certainly seemed to find his groove down the stretch and show why he was the 2024 minor league pitcher of the year. Quinn would certainly be someone who is penciled into the 2027 rotation with the ability to pitch in a mid-rotation capacity at his ceiling. A positive ending to Quinn’s 2026.

Grade: B-

Hunter Dobbins

Projection: 78.2 IP, 4.57 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 15.8 K%, 0.6 fWAR

Production: 40 IP, 3.83 ERA, 4.55 FIP, 22.0 K%, 0.3 fWAR

It was a tough 2026 season for Dobbins, bookended by a major injury. After suffering a torn ACL in 2025, Dobbins came into the season as the de facto 6th starter. Making occasional spot starts, much like McGreevy did in 2025, before what was expected to be Dustin May’s spot in the rotation for him to take in the 2nd half and finish the season with. Unfortunately, a torn UCL this time around will cost Dobbins pretty much all of 2027. In the brief appearance we were able to see of Dobbins, he flashed some real upside that should guarantee him a role on the big-league staff upon his return; in what capacity, that’s TBD.

Grade: C

Matthew Liberatore

Projection: 132 IP, 4.02 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 20.4 K%, 1.7 fWAR

Production: 155 IP, 5.23 ERA, 4.62 FIP, 22.8 K%, 1.1 fWAR

It was a forgettable and challenging season for Matthew Libteratore, who won the opening day job over Dustin May and seemed primed to come into 2026 ready to take a step forward as a big-league starter. However, we learned that it was just a continuation of what we saw in the 2nd half of the 2025 season. This season was the big test for Libby to prove he could start, and he did not do enough to put his name in pencil for the 2027 rotation. In all likelihood, we will hear about Libby coming to camp stretched out to be a starter. That means nothing, only that it’s easier for guys to come in built up ready for a starter’s workload rather than having to do it on the fly in season. I’m sure the Cardinals will point to Pallante and his success this season and how Libby could turn it around just like Andre did. Matthew Liberatore will face some pretty fierce in-house competition for that rotation spot, however. The return of Richard Fitts, Cooper Hjerpe, Mason Molina, Jurrangelo Cintje, and potentially an outside-the-org acquisition could all push Liberatore to a bullpen role, where he has had success in the past and would allow his fastball to play up. It will be an intriguing offseason to monitor from the Matthew Liberatore perspective for sure.

Grade: D-

Bullpen

Riley O’Brien

Projection: 55.2 IP, 3.88 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 24.2 K%, 0.1 fWAR, 13 Saves

Production: 64 IP, 4.08 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 23.2 K%, 0.3 fWAR, 38 Saves

Watching Riley O’Brien at times this season was either really fun or like getting on a roller coaster; you had to strap yourself in, pull down the safety bar, and hold on for dear life. Such is the life of a closer. I realize he blew several saves during the season and it wasn’t always pretty, but when you consider he finished the season tied with Mason Miller for the most saves in the NL, it’s pretty hard to call that a disappointment. When you look at his projections, he’s right in line with pre-season expectations; his failures are amplified because of the role and intensity in which he has to perform. Removing the emotion of some tough late-season losses, it was still a very productive season for Riley O’Brien overall.

Grade: B-

Ryne Stanek

Projection: 48.1 IP, 4.10 ERA, 4.00 FIP, 23.3 K%, 0.2 fWAR

Production: 62.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 24.3 K%, 0.0 fWAR

The token veteran reliever of this season was Ryne Stanek, and his role was to help young guys learn how to prepare, grow, and handle adversity, while offering important innings out of the bullpen. It’s hard to say exactly what the human impact Stanek had by the numbers, but by all accounts from those who play with him praise his leadership and ability to be a good teammate. The on-field production was solid if unspectacular as a whole. The ability to post all season long and get important outs throughout the season were positives. Yes, he had blow-ups and could be incredibly erratic at times. I’d call it a mediocre season.

Grade: C

Justin Bruihl

Projection: 50.2 IP, 4.26 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 20.7 K%, 0.1 fWAR

Production: 75.2 IP, 3.81 ERA, 3.97 FIP, 15.6 K%, 0.3 fWAR

Coming into 2026, one of the unheralded acquisitions came in the form of Justin Bruihl to be the 2nd lefty out of the pen alongside JoJo Romero after cutting bait with John King. The first couple of months were an adventure. Bruihl himself admitted he was trying too hard to get to more velo; he focused on control and command in the latter 2/3 of the season and really let his pitch movement do the work. He was a really solid, reliable option from the left side, and his perfectly suited for the low-leverage middle-inning lefty lanes. Look for youngster Sandro Santana to step into the leverage lefty role next season to allow Bruihl to slide back to the role he’s built for, and this pen will look that much more competitive.

Grade: B

Gordon Graceffo

Projection: 97.1 IP, 4.25 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 18.8 K%, 0.9 fWAR

Production: 78 IP, 2.77 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 18.6 K%, 0.4 fWAR

To think that Gordon Graceffo was the final roster cut before the season, and then an early injury to Matt Pushard allowed him to basically spend the full season with the big-league team, really was a motivating factor for Gordon, and he took full advantage of his opportunities. Leading all Cardinals relievers in fWAR, the projection is a little misleading due to ZIPS projecting him as a starter still. The FIP is also misleading, as it reflects more of his 1st half performance. Graceffo admitted to a grip change on his slider that he began utilizing on July 9th against Milwaukee. After that point, Graceffo posted a 2.13 ERA and a 2.52 FIP and struck out 27% of batters in 38 IP. Look for Graceffo to get high-leverage opportunities out of the pen early next season.

Grade: A-

Luis Gastelum

Projection: 56.2 IP, 3.97 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 23.6 K%, 0.3 fWAR

Production: 36.2 IP, 4.42 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 28.9 K%, 0.1 fWAR

It was a tough start to Gastelum’s big-league career, but after identifying a pitch-tipping issue, he really started to show why so many prospect evaluators were high on him. The changeup is a legit weapon out of the pen, and he mixes it in well with his fastball and sweeper. Gastelum is another guy I’d keep an eye on for high-leverage innings in 2027.

Grade: B-

George Soriano

Projection: 70.1 IP, 4.48 ERA, 4.33 FIP, 21.7 K%, 0.0 fWAR

Production: 66 IP, 4.23 ERA, 4.80 FIP, 22.8 K%, -0.3 fWAR

It really was a tale of two halves for George Soriano, almost a complete inverse of the Justin Bruihl season, where the first 4 were really good, and the last 2+ were a disaster. The stuff is real, the changeup is nasty, but you could tell Manager Oli Marmol rode Soriano hard this season, especially after the loss of JoJo Romero. Credit to Soriano for taking the ball as often as he did, but you could tell by late August he was gassed. I think first half Soriano is the real one, and I would expect to see him return in 2027 and find his effectiveness again with adequate rest and recovery.

Grade: C-

Matt Svanson

Projection: 71.2 IP, 3.77 ERA, 4.00 FIP, 21.7 K%, 0.3 fWAR

Production: 42.1 IP, 7.44 ERA, 4.38 FIP, 19.7 K%, 0.0 fWAR

After Chris Roycroft was sent to Tampa Bay, the new “King of negative BABIP” became Matt Svanson. The 4.38 FIP is why he still has a spot on the 40-man roster, and his 2025 is why he will be allowed to come back and try something different in 2027 during spring training to try and recapture that form. It was just an ugly season from the jump for Svanson and he, like Roycroft, couldn’t seem to figure out how to stop the snowball once it started. A truly disappointing season from a reliever many had high hopes he could be a factor in the closer role coming into 2026.

Grade: F

Ryan Fernandez

Projection: 58.2 IP, 4.14 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 24.9 K%, 0.3 fWAR

Production: 23 IP, 3.52 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 28 K%, 0.2 fWAR

I thought Ryan Fernandez was solid in his relief opportunities as he rebounded from a tough 2025. Maybe a little bit more surprised he wasn’t given more opportunities down the stretch, but I wonder if the Cardinals will tender him a contract going into next season. There wasn’t really a consistent Memphis shuttle this season, given the lack of flexibility on the roster and in the bullpen.

Grade: C+

So much of 2026 was about finally getting answers on guys who have been in the organization for years. Some positives emerged, like Jordan Walker, Kyle Leahy, Gordon Graceffo, JJ Wetherholt, and Leo Bernal. Some answers were also revealed in the inverse: Nolan Gorman and Victor Scott II, specifically. Overall it was a succesful season when it came to getting answers as the club moves forward with its build and knowing whats yet to come from the upper levels, and beyond, it really is an exciting time to be a Cardinals fan, even if it is another October missed, the rest of the league should be on notice that this organization that resembled a stale saltine cracker has been revitalized with young talent who will make an impact over a full 162 that, or as close of one as we get in 2027, that should have the Cardinals in the hunt or even a return to red October.

-Thanks for reading

Baseball's greatest rivalry gets renewed in the postseason with the New York Yankees hosting the Boston Red Sox for the best-of-three wild card series beginning on Tuesday, Sept. 29.

"I don't like to give that way more attention than it needs, but I won't shy away from it - two historic franchises, big rivalry, well aware of that," Red Sox manager Chad Tracy told reporters on Monday.

It's the second year in a row the longtime AL East foes are meeting at this stage, with the Yankees winning last fall's matchup in three games as then-rookie Cam Schlittler dominated with 12 strikeouts. The likely Cy Young winner will start Game 1 in the Bronx on Tuesday.

"It's special," Schlittler said. "Being able to get that experience last year in Game 3, it's a good feeling to go out there and get the first one."

Where to watch Yankees vs Red Sox today

• Time: 8 p.m. ET
• TV channel: NBC
• Streaming: Peacock

Watch MLB playoffs on Peacock

What time is Yankees vs Red Sox game?

First pitch in the Bronx is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET.

Yankees vs Red Sox predictions

• Bob Nightengale: Yankees in 3
• Gabe Lacques: Yankees in 2
• Kristie Ackert: Yankees in 3
• Jesse Yomtov: Yankees in 3

In its first year of implementation at the major league level, the Automatic Ball-Strike (ABS) Challenge System seems to have been an overwhelming success.

Players, managers and fans have all responded favorably to the two-challenge format that has been in effect for the 2026 season. Players have learned to use their challenges judiciously.

Managers don't need to ride the umpires to try and influence their calls. And fans get the immediate satisfaction of seeing almost instantly whether or not a borderline pitch was actually a ball or a strike.

So why mess with a good thing when playoff time rolls around?

ABS rules for MLB playoffs

While the number of replay challenges available for each manager increases from one to two in the playoffs, the Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) Challenge System will remain exactly the same as it was during the regular season.

Each team begins the game with two challenges and keeps any challenges that are successful. If the game goes to extra innings, teams receive an additional challenge if they don't have any left at the start of an inning.

The Cincinnati Reds didn’t make the playoffs, but they did lead baseball in at least one category: winning more games than was otherwise expected.

The Reds won 75 games this season, which is 9.8 games above their expected total, based on their Pythagorean expectation. The Pythagorean expectation is a model developed by sabermetrics pioneer Bill James that estimates the number of games a team should be expected to win based on their runs scored and runs allowed. Because a team scores and allows far more runs than it plays games, run totals can give a steadier picture of team strength.

USA TODAY computed the Pythagorean wins for all 30 MLB teams for the 2026 season and compared that result to each team’s actual wins to determine which teams over- and underperformed the most this year.

Following the Reds in beating their expectation are three teams that did make the playoffs: the Tampa Bay Rays, the San Diego Padres and the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Rays notably won the American League East by 4.5 games over the New York Yankees, who got just 66 games out of superstar Aaron Judge. If both teams had better matched their Pythagorean expectation, the Yankees would’ve won the division by more than five games — in reality, Tampa Bay beat its expectation by 7.8 games while New York fell 2.5 games shy.

On the opposite side of things, we can also look at the teams that didn’t reach expectations.

Leading that race is the Detroit Tigers, who sputtered to a 76-86 record, nine games out of the AL Central lead and eight out of a Wild Card spot. The Tigers missed their win expectation by 12.6 games, far more than anyone else. Had Detroit reached its expect wins total, it could be in the playoff discussion. The midseason trade of Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal played a role, but the Tigers had been underachieving even with the ace lefty.

The next underperformer is the Los Angeles Angels, one of two teams with 100 losses this season. The Angels finished 8.8 games below their expectation amid a change in ownership.

Fellow underperformers include the San Francisco Giants, the Colorado Rockies (the other 100-loss club) and the Chicago Cubs — who managed to still make the playoffs via a Wild Card despite underperforming by 5.9 games.

Does any of this matter in October? It turns out that the Pythagorean expectation has done narrowly better than straight win-loss records in terms of predicting postseason success, based on data USA TODAY analyzed from 2000 to 2025.

In the Wild Card round, which was added in 2012, the team with the better Pythagorean expectation won 55.9% of the time compared to the team with the better actual record, which won 44.8% of the time.

In the Division Series, the team with more expected wins won 58% of the time, while the team with the better record won 49.5% of the time. Meanwhile, in the League Championship Series, actual wins have done a better job at predicting the winner, 56.2% to 56.0%.

However, the biggest gap is in the World Series, where the team with the better Pythagorean expectation won at a 64% clip. Actual records do no better than a coin flip at predicting the winner of the World Series.

It is worth noting, though, that the World Series comparison is only 25 series’ worth of data, so it's a less reliable result than the Division Series (100) or LCS (50).

Across all 209 series analyzed between 2000 and 2025, the team with the better expected record won 121, or 57.9%. Out of the 198 series with a difference in actual records, the better record won 100, or 50.5%.

Among this year's playoff teams, the Milwaukee Brewers posted the highest total in the National League at 102.5 expected wins. The Yankees reigned atop the AL, but were still below the Brewers, with 95.5 expected wins.

In the Wild Card round, there is one series where expected wins and actual records disagree. The Padres (91-71) hold a better record than the Cubs (89-73), while the Cubs have more expected wins (94.9 to 85.3).

There are also a couple of potential ALDS matchups with disagreements including the already discussed Rays and Yankees, while the Cleveland Guardians (85-77) could play the Chicago White Sox (84-78) — Chicago holds the expected wins edge 86.5 to 82.2 in that possible battle between AL Central foes.

Methodology: USA TODAY compiled each team’s wins, losses, runs scored and runs allowed from the official MLB website. Each team’s Pythagorean expectation was then calculated from that, using the formula used by Baseball Reference.

Additional notes:

• The New York Yankees and the Baltimore Orioles only played 161 games this season after their Sept. 27 game was canceled due to inclement weather.
• For the historical data, USA TODAY pulled regular-season run totals to compute Pythagorean win expectations and playoff results from the MLB Stats API from 2000 to 2025.
• The 60-game 2020 season was excluded.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: MLB playoffs 2026: Which teams are better than their records say?

Despite finishing with an 81-81 record, the Houston Astros won the American League West and host the Chicago White Sox for the best-of-three AL wild card series at Daikin Park beginning Tuesday, Sept. 29.

"I've been here for almost a decade, and just how this team just rallies around adversity – they don't run from it. They actually run to it," Houston manager Joe Espada told reporters.

The White Sox are making their first playoff appearance since 2021 and are just two years removed from a 121-loss 2024 season, the worst record in baseball history.

Houston's Jose Altuve enters the series with 27 career postseason home runs, second only to Manny Ramirez's 29 in MLB history. The Astros have made the playoffs 10 times in 12 years and won World Series titles in 2017 and 2022. The White Sox's last World Series title came in 2005.

Where to watch Astros vs White Sox today

• Time: 5 p.m. ET
• TV channel: NBCSN
• Live stream: Peacock

Watch MLB playoffs on Peacock

What time is Astros vs White Sox game?

First pitch in Houston is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

Astros vs White Sox schedule

Game 3 time subject to change

• Game 1, Tuesday: White Sox at Astros – buy tickets  – 5 p.m. ET, NBCSN & Peacock
• Game 2, Wednesday: White Sox at Astros – buy tickets  – 5 p.m. ET, NBCSN & Peacock
• Game 3*, Thursday: White Sox at Astros – buy tickets – 5 p.m. ET, NBCSN & Peacock

The pitch clock rules introduced in 2023 to speed up Major League Baseball games have dramatically improved the pace of most nine-inning games.

The year before the rule was implemented, there were 232 nine-inning games that lasted more than three hours and 30 minutes, and it was also the last season that the average game lasted that long. In 2023, there were only nine such games.

The time spent on the field also dropped, with the 2025 season averaging two hours and 38 minutes per game. Figures for 2026 have not been released yet, but expect an uptick in time as a result of the first season under the ABS challenge system.

The pitch clock rules that applied to the regular season will remain in effect for the Major League Baseball postseason, which begins on Tuesday, Sept. 29.

MLB pitch clock rules

• Bases empty: Pitchers have 15 seconds to start their delivery
• Runners on base: Pitchers have 18 seconds to start their delivery; With runners on base, the timer resets if the pitcher attempts a pickoff or steps off the rubber
• Batters: Hitters must be in the box, alert to the pitcher, and ready by the 8-second mark on the pitch clock
• Penalties: A violation by the pitcher results in an automatic ball; a violation by the batter results in an automatic strike
• Pitchers are limited to two disengagements (pickoff attempts or step-offs) per plate appearance and resets if runners advance during a plate appearance
• Umpires may provide extra time if warranted by special circumstances

This might be hyperbole, but we feel safe to say that the potential World Series matchups have never been so politically loaded.

With an industry-shuttering lockout just 62 days away and a nuclear winter to follow – with only the degree of radiation in question – the lasting image of Major League Baseball will be provided by the two World Series participants and how they got there.

Narratives both valid and tired will dominate the run-up and linger for so long as baseball goes dark. No pressure, eh?

With that, let’s break down the nine most delicious World Series matchups based on narrative, geography and, dare we say, ball itself:

9. Brewers-White Sox

It’d be easy enough to dub this the I-94 Series, what with online maps’ highly complicated directions between ballparks:

Get on I-90 W/I-94 W. Follow I-94 W to your destination in Milwaukee.

Ninety minutes on I-94. It's that easy. But we could also call this the To Hell With The Cubs Series, pitting two franchises eternally playing second fiddle to the Bleacher Bummin’ behemoth lodged in between them.

Brewers and White Sox fans alike have had to endure invasive Cub fans for three decades now, a twice- or thrice-yearly phenomenon for Milwaukee since its move to the National League. Sure, both teams would be starved to win the World Series, especially Brewer fans seeking their very first.

Yet it would be kind of cool to see two fan bases close in proximity yet fused by something far stronger: Solidarity.

Chad Tracy is hardly the only person that has been added to the fold between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees’ back-to-back meetings in the American League Wild Card Series.

The Red Sox have made substantial additions to the rotation, with Payton Tolle, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suarez being named the starting pitchers for the best-of-three series at Yankee Stadium — making for a much deeper unit than the one that fell off a cliff after Garrett Crochet last season and relied on the likes of Brayan Bello and Connelly Early. Roman Anthony, Willson Contreras, Adley Rutschman, and Caleb Durbin will join the lineup in hopes to scrape together more than the six total runs they scored last season. Crochet could end up joining the bullpen in his return from injury, along with newcomers Erik Miller and Jake Bennett, which is a pretty decent group of pitchers being added to one of the very best units in baseball this season.

The Yankees will also be in a better position on the pitching side, with Gerrit Cole serving as the do-or-die option behind Cam Schlittler and Max Fried. Luis Garcia Jr., Heliot Ramos, and George Lombard Jr. should help the lineup against left-handers, though there is something to be said about the so-so status of Aaron Judge.

If we can boil all of that down, though, only one man can completely swing the series…

Chad Tracy.

Tracy’s most difficult decisions might come before the season even starts, as he will be relied upon heavily to figure out who will fill out the roster — Braiden Ward? Jarren Duran? Curtis Mead? Jahmai Jones? Nate Eaton? Isiah Kiner-Falefa? Crochet?

It’s not going to be easy, but all of that pales in comparison to making decisions with who will play, when they will play, and how he manages things when the lights are at their brightest in The Bronx.

“It’s the playoffs, so we’re at the point in the season where teams that are remaining need to win or they’re going home,” Tracy said during his media availability on Monday. “I have a feel for that.

“… It’s all hands on deck. I think everyone is aware that during the playoffs it’s about winning moments and being aggressive — all those things. I think most of our guys who have been around understand that, so we’re going to go out and play our butts off and manage and do everything we can to win each game.”

Alex Cora, the manager of last year’s squad that became the first in history to lose the best-of-three series after taking a lead, made some… interesting decisions in hindsight.

Bello was pulled after 2 1/3 innings in Game 2, which led to Justin Wilson, Zack Kelly, Garrett Whitlock, and Tolle being used out of the bullpen and becoming unavailable for Game 3. Nate Eaton started over Wilyer Abreu in Game 2. Rob Refsnyder got two starts over Masataka Yoshida, which makes sense considering they faced two left-handers, but he finished 0-for-5 while the latter went 4-for-7. Nathaniel Lowe played in all three games, while Nick Sogard only played in two.

It’s easy to go back in time and poke holes though these decisions with the benefit of hindsight, but that’s kind of the whole point in looking ahead at the same two teams playing each other again with one of them being led by someone new.

Tracy needs to avoid making similar mistakes, and he needs to do it without the benefit of years of experience in similar situations. The Red Sox stripped him of that interim tag because they believe he can, and it’s only a matter of time before we find out whether or not they’re right.

When Dodgers rookie Josue De Paula debuted a little over two weeks ago, he was the youngest player in the lineup by four years. And when veteran infielder Miguel Rojas pinch-hit for Alex Freeland in the eighth inning, the 21-year-old De Paula and 29-year-old Kyle Tucker were the only Dodgers under 30 remaining in the batting order.

“You’ve got to have both,” veteran shortstop Mookie Betts, who turns 34 next month, said in a recent conversation with the Times. “You need experience, but you also do need youth. I don’t know what the balance is, to be honest.”

The age of the Dodgers’ stars is the most persistent knock on a group that just finished a 100-win regular season and has the second-best odds to win the World Series (16.7%), according to Baseball Prospectus.

It’s the threat looming beyond every new accomplishment. Yes, the Dodgers are in the midst of a historic run. Only one other organization has strung together so many consecutive postseason berths, and that Braves team of the 1990s and early 2000s won only one World Series.

Read more:Shaikin: How the playoffs might impact the lockout, and ... unfair to the Yankees? What?

The Dodgers are aiming to become the first National League team to claim three straight championships.

But how long can this last?

The Dodgers’ lineup is the oldest in the majors, according to Baseball Reference, with an average age of 30.9 years old when weighted by at-bats and games played. Their star corner infielders, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy, are the oldest of the everyday starters, at 37 and 36, respectively. Even two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani turned 32 in July.

“That’s a fact, we’re an older team,” manager Dave Roberts said. “With age, there’s experience. I know we’re not going to fall off a cliff, our team.”

Plenty of young players in the Dodgers’ system have been blocked by older stars over the years. But in addition to a sky-high payroll, the Dodgers are known for their player development.

Even after the trade deadline — when the Dodgers sent two MLB Top-100 prospects, outfielder Zyhir Hope (No. 25) and right-hander River Ryan (No. 68), to the Tigers as part of the trade package for left-hander Tarik Skubal — the organization’s farm system ranked No. 1 on MLB Pipeline’s rankings.

Serving as a reminder of that strength, when the Dodgers called up De Paula straight from double A, he immediately showed his bat belonged in the big-leagues.

Read more:Shaikin: Dodgers don't have a designated playoff closer. That isn't as bad as it sounds

At the same time, injuries stoked the flames of the age discussion. De Paula got his shot because Ohtani finally went on the injured list, after managing problems with his left knee and right biceps for much of the season.

Freeman pushed through knee tendinitis in September. Teoscar Hernández (left hamstring strain) and Betts (right oblique strain) both had monthlong IL stints earlier in the season but have helped carry the offense lately.

“As I’ve gotten older, I’m definitely taking a lot more care of my body,” Betts said. “I know I had an oblique [injury] earlier, but as far as just showing up every day and whatnot, I feel like we do a good job in taking care of our bodies and staying healthy for the most part.

“But I mean, people are talking like we’re the only ones in the league that’s getting hurt. You look everywhere around the league, somebody’s hurt.”

That’s true. And it also isn’t just the guys in their mid-to-late 30’s sustaining soft-tissue injuries. Dodgers catcher Dalton Rushing, 25, served back-to-back IL stints for a flexor strain in his forearm down the stretch.

The Dodgers’ roster has proven deep enough to withstand injuries, as the team posted the second-best regular-season record in the majors this year.

Read more:Plaschke: The Dodgers cannot three-peat without 'That Guy'... but who is he?

“We’re not going to win games the same way that Milwaukee or Tampa Bay or these younger teams are winning games,” said Rojas, 37. “We’re going to win games a different way. We’re going to win games with a lot of talent, with experience, and winning moments.”

Over the years, the Dodgers have brought in players with postseason experience. But roster continuity also has meant that 17 players on this year’s projected postseason roster also contributed to both of the Dodgers’ last two World Series-winning seasons.

So, after playing more games than any other team the past couple years, the Dodgers may be a little hobbled going into their first-round bye. Regardless, they just completed their first 100-win season since 2023.

“The experience, how smart these guys are on the field, I think those things help win moments and win battles on the edges in October,” president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said when the Dodgers clinched the NL West title earlier this month. “It’s not as easy to navigate through a 162-game season with an older roster. But I do think that experience in those moments will definitely help and we’ll see it shine through at different points in October.”

Sign up for more Dodgers news with Dodgers Dugout. Delivered at the start of each series.

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

Here we are — the 2026 MLB Postseason.

While the Brewers are awaiting an opponent for the National League Division Series, eight teams will compete in four Wild Card Series this week. Let’s take a quick look at each of the matchups. All times listed in Central Time.

AL Wild Card Series: (3) Houston Astros vs. (6) Chicago White Sox

This series is just a sample of how the National League’s playoff field is much deeper than the American League’s — neither of these teams would have made the postseason if they were on the other side. In fact, the Astros, at 81-81, finished with what would have been the ninth-best record in the NL, behind even the 82-80 Pirates. Alas, one of these squads will make it to the NLCS against the Guardians next weekend. The Astros have a bit of an edge here just because of home-field advantage, but the White Sox, who were arguably the biggest surprise in all of baseball, will certainly give them a run for their money. Chicago led the AL Central for a decent chunk of the season and ultimately finished just one game behind Cleveland for the No. 2 seed in the AL.

Schedule

• Game 1: Tuesday, Sept. 29 @ 4:00 p.m. (Peacock & NBC Sports Network)
• Game 2: Wednesday, Sept. 30 @ 4:00 p.m. (Peacock & NBC Sports Network)
• Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 1 @ 4:00 p.m. (Peacock & NBC Sports Network)

Team Rankings

Astros:

• Offense: .242/.315/.417 (.732 OPS ranks seventh); 226 HRs (first); 734 runs (13th); 50 SBs (last)
• Pitching: 4.45 team ERA (24th); 4.81 starter ERA (27th); 4.08 reliever ERA (17th); 1,411 Ks (ninth)

White Sox:

• Offense: .236/.320/.406 (.726 OPS ranks ninth); 211 HRs (fifth); 776 runs (fifth); 93 SBs (tied for 18th)
• Pitching: 4.12 team ERA (15th); 4.60 starter ERA (26th); 3.70 reliever ERA (eighth); 1,337 Ks (tied for 16th)

Projected Pitching Matchups

• Game 1: RHP AJ Blubaugh (HOU) vs. LHP Hagen Smith (CWS)
• Game 2: TBD (HOU) vs. TBD (CWS)
• Game 3: TBD (HOU) vs. TBD (CWS)

Prediction

This is a pair of strong offenses and a pair of mediocre pitching staffs, which means I’d expect we’ll see some high-scoring, back-and-forth games. The Astros have home-field advantage, and they also have the better offense, but the White Sox have a very slight edge on the mound. I’ll take the Astros to win in three games.

AL Wild Card Series: (4) New York Yankees vs. (5) Boston Red Sox

A rematch of last year’s AL Wild Card Series, the Yankees took two of three against Boston in three low-scoring games — Boston won the first game 3-1 before the Yankees took the last two games by finals of 4-3 and 4-0. It’s hard to say what we should expect this time around, as the Red Sox have had one of the better offenses in baseball in the second half and the Yankees have arguably the best pitching staff, though the Red Sox’s staff isn’t much worse.

Schedule

• Game 1: Tuesday, Sept. 29 @ 7:00 p.m. (NBC & Peacock)
• Game 2: Wednesday, Sept. 30 @ 7:00 p.m. (NBC & Peacock)
• Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 1 @ 7:00 p.m. (NBC & Peacock)

Team Rankings

Yankees:

• Offense: .235/.311/.409 (.720 OPS ranks tied for 11th); 223 HRs (second); 739 runs (tied for ninth); 153 SBs (sixth)
• Pitching: 3.24 team ERA (first); 3.30 starter ERA (first); 3.15 reliever ERA (second); 1,450 Ks (tied for sixth)

Red Sox:

• Offense: .245/.319/.397 (.716 OPS ranks 19th); 163 HRs (26th); 689 runs (23rd); 107 SBs (14th)
• Pitching: 3.54 team ERA (third); 3.92 starter ERA (eighth); 3.00 reliever ERA (first); 1,398 Ks (11th)

Projected Pitching Matchups

• Game 1: RHP Cam Schlittler (NYY) vs. LHP Payton Tolle (BOS)
• Game 2: LHP Max Fried (NYY) vs. RHP Sonny Gray (BOS)
• Game 3: RHP Gerrit Cole (NYY) vs. LHP Ranger Suarez (BOS)

Prediction

The key to this series is which version of Boston shows up — they looked terrible through late June, had the best month of July of any MLB team, and feel back down to earth over the last month and a half. If that July/early August team shows up, I’d easily pick the Red Sox, but I think they got hot too early. I’ll take the Yankees to win two out of three for the second straight year.

NL Wild Card Series: (3) Atlanta Braves vs. (6) Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies backed their way into the final NL Wild Card spot, as the Arizona Diamondbacks nearly replaced them in the playoff field before Philadelphia finally clinched on the final day of the season. The Phils will look to make people forget about that as they have a chance to knock out their division foes in the Braves after doing exactly that in 2022 and 2023, beating them in the NLDS both years. The Braves, meanwhile, have bounced back nicely in 2026 after a very disappointing 2025, and they locked up the NL East with a 94-win season behind a solid offense and even better pitching staff.

Schedule

• Game 1: Tuesday, Sept. 29 @ 1:00 p.m. (NBC & Peacock)
• Game 2: Wednesday, Sept. 30 @ 1:00 p.m. (NBC & Peacock)
• Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 1 @ 1:00 p.m. (NBC & Peacock)

Team Rankings

Braves:

• Offense: .246/.309/.409 (.718 OPS ranks tied for 16th); 204 HRs (tied for seventh); 742 runs (eighth); 83 SBs (tied for 23rd)
• Pitching: 3.63 team ERA (fifth); 3.76 starter ERA (sixth); 3.44 reliever ERA (fourth); 1,350 Ks (15th)

Phillies:

• Offense: .240/.312/.395 (.707 OPS ranks 22nd); 182 HRs (tied for 16th); 713 runs (19th); 105 SBs (15th)
• Pitching: 4.04 team ERA (11th); 3.80 starter ERA (seventh); 4.43 reliever ERA (21st); 1,577 Ks (first)

Projected Pitching Matchups

• Game 1: LHP Chris Sale (ATL) vs. LHP Jesús Luzardo (PHI)
• Game 2: TBD (ATL) vs. TBD (PHI)
• Game 3: TBD (ATL) vs. TBD (PHI)

Prediction

Had the Phillies not had to fight their way to the postseason until the last day of the regular season, I would have been inclined to take them in a short series behind their strong starting pitching, but after they were forced to use their top starters in the final weekend, that advantage may not be there. Having Chris Sale going in game 1 helps the Braves in a major way — I’ll take Atlanta to sweep.

NL Wild Card Series: (4) San Diego Padres vs. (5) Chicago Cubs

Another rematch from last year, this one has changed locations as the Padres caught fire in September to storm atop the NL Wild Card standings, claiming the No. 4 seed as they’ll host the No. 5 seed Cubs, who struggled in the final few weeks of the year. The Cubs, statistically, have the best offense (led by Pete Crow-Armstrong) and defense in baseball, but their bullpen has been dismal, while the Padres have been good in just about every area down the stretch, anchored by their strong bullpen and the second-half resurgence of Fernando Tatis Jr.

Schedule

• Game 1: Tuesday, Sept. 29 @ 9:00 p.m. (Peacock & NBC Sports Network)
• Game 2: Wednesday, Sept. 30 @ 9:00 p.m. (Peacock & NBC Sports Network)
• Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 1 @ 9:00 p.m. (Peacock & NBC Sports Network)

Team Rankings

Padres:

• Offense: .244/.319/.398 (.717 OPS ranks 18th); 183 HRs (tied for 14th); 722 runs (15th); 164 SBs (tied for second)
• Pitching: 3.99 team ERA (10th); 4.42 starter ERA (21st); 3.53 reliever ERA (fifth); 1,315 Ks (20th)

Cubs:

• Offense: .251/.339/.428 (.767 OPS ranks first); 220 HRs (third); 850 runs (first); 114 SBs (tied for 10th)
• Pitching: 4.12 team ERA (14th); 4.27 starter ERA (18th); 3.90 reliever ERA (13th); 1,260 Ks (26th)

Projected Pitching Matchups

• Game 1: RHP Michael King (SD) vs. LHP Matthew Boyd (CHC)
• Game 2: TBD (SD) vs. TBD (CHC)
• Game 3: TBD (SD) vs. TBD (CHC)

Prediction

Had you asked me at the start of September, I would have picked the Cubs to win this series, perhaps even with a sweep. But the Cubs have been inconsistent all season, so I have no idea what to expect. With that in mind, I’ll take the safer bet and pick the Padres to win two of three and move on to face the Brewers.

At long last, we’ve reached judgment day. Or, perhaps, the first of many days of judgment, pun intended. Today, the Yankees’ 2026 postseason run begins, as the club hopes that this foray into October baseball lasts longer than last year’s did. We will also learn today whether Aaron Judge will be on the playoff roster, as the slugger was on the field taking live batting practice just yesterday less than two weeks after suffering a calf strain. The stakes, both with regard to Judge’s health, and with the Yankees’ matchup with their archnemesis, are unbearably high.

Let’s take a deep breath, and jump in together. On the site today, Dani will preview Game 1 against the Red Sox, while Andrew runs our sitewide postseason predictions. Later, we’ll see Peter’s At-bat of the Week feature Ryan McMahon, and John’s entry in the Yankee Birthday series profiles Scranton manager Shelley Duncan. Also, as the Yankees embark on their playoff journey, Michael finds an optimistic slant and compares the Yankees’ impending run to the 2026 Knicks’ run to a legendary championship.

Today’s Matchup:

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox

Time: 8:00 p.m. EST

TV:  NBC/Peacock

Venue: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY

Questions/Prompts:

1. Alright, what do you think: is Aaron Judge in the lineup tonight?

2. Are you worried about the Yankee lineup facing lefty Payton Tolle, with or without Judge?

The 2026 Major League Baseball playoffs get underway with a wild card series quadruple-header on Tuesday, Sept. 29.

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves get things underway at 2 p.m. ET, with matchups following between the Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros (5 p.m.), Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees (8 p.m.), then the San Diego Padres host the Chicago Cubs in the nightcap (10 p.m.).

The openers of the four best-of-three wild card series take place Tuesday, with Game 2s on Wednesday and if necessary, winner-take-all Game 3s on Thursday. The winners advance to the best-of-five Division Series, which begin on Saturday, Oct. 3.

The World Series begins on Friday, Oct. 23 at the home ballpark of the pennant winner with the better record. The Los Angeles Dodgers are the reigning World Series champions and enter the fold in the Division Series after earning a bye.

What MLB playoff games are today?

• NL Game 1: Phillies at Braves – buy tickets – 2 p.m. ET
• AL Game 1: White Sox at Astros – buy tickets – 5 p.m. ET
• AL Game 1: Red Sox at Yankees – buy tickets – 8 p.m. ET
• NL Game 1: Cubs at Padres – buy tickets – 10 p.m. ET

Watch MLB playoffs on Peacock

There hasn’t been a lot of celebrating for the Pittsburgh Pirates over the years but they were able to achieve one pretty big goal this season. The Pirates finished the 2026 season with a winning record, 82-80, after defeating the Detroit Tigers 4-2 in the series/season finale at Comerica Park on Sept. 27.

The Pirates haven’t had a winning season since 2018, when they went 82-79, marking seven seasons of poor baseball. There have been a couple of close seasons throughout the years but they were never able to get over the hump.

It was tied for the second-longest streak in baseball, with only the Los Angeles Angels having more at 11 and the Colorado Rockies at eight this season.

In 2025, The Bucs went 71-91 and finished last in the NL Central. The Pirates also had the fifth worst record in all of baseball. 

Pittsburgh finished third in the division, and had a winning record and an 11-win improvement from last season. It is just the fifth winning season in the past 34 years for the Pirates, including their three postseason appearances, 2013-15. 

The Pirates were even in the third Wild Card spot in late July, but seven straight losing series put them six games below .500 and they fell too far behind to make up ground. It is frustrating to see a promising season slip but even though this was not a playoff team this year it still feels like The Pirates are treading into the right direction to snap their massive playoff drought.

Even though fans in the steel city want to see them in the postseason, this season should still be considered a victory. The Pirates went from being an irrelevant laughably bad team to a squad that was respected and competitive this year. 

The playoffs felt like an unrealistic goal for this young team before the season started. With all the inexperience and the defensive being a major question making the postseason felt fair fetched but now with a lot of that young talent coming together and if they can keep Brandon Lowe the playoffs seem like a legit possibility for 2027.

MLB.com | Max Ralph: Last week, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Aaron Judge would miss the Wild Card Series, but the slugger had other plans. Judge himself is aiming to play against the Red Sox and is ramping up baseball activities, as he partook in indoor hitting and throwing on Sunday before participating in a live BP session against Elmer Rodríguez today. While the thought of Judge rushing his return and playing in a diminished state or re-aggravating his calf is scary, having his righty bat against Boston’s collection of lefty pitchers would certainly be a boon — if he’s not as rusty as he looked in September.

FanGraphs | Jay Jaffe: The Yankees and Red Sox are meeting in the Wild Card Series for the second year in a row, but this year’s matchup looks a whole lot different than last year’s. While the 2025 editions of both clubs featured high-octane offenses, this year the bitter rivals each feature elite pitching in what looks to be a low-scoring affair. No matter what shape the games take, here’s hoping that the Yankees enjoy the same outcome as last year.

The Athletic | Brendan Kuty: ($) Cam Schlittler’s eight-inning, 12-strikeout, scoreless start against the Red Sox in Game 3 of last year’s Wild Card Series was one for the ages. It was also fueled by online hate directed towards Schlittler from Red Sox Nation prior to the game. Apparently, some members of the Boston faithful have still continued to chirp online. To his credit, Schlittler seems unfazed, saying, “At the end of the day, when I get prepared for whatever day I start, it’s not what I’m going to be thinking about.”

FanGraphs | Dan Szymborski: Finally, the 2026 ZiPS game-by-game postseason odds have gone live on FanGraphs! In contrast to the regular season-version, playoff ZiPS incorporates matchup-specific info – starters, lineups, players’ health status – to provide win-loss odds for each individual game. For what it’s worth, the model gives the Yankees a 52.6% chance of besting the Red Sox in the Wild Card Series, with favorable odds in both Game 1 and 2.

Team who will most be missed from the playoffs

The Mariners. The only active MLB team to have never appeared in a World Series came within a single win of ending that hoodoo last October and appeared poised to go one stage further in 2026. Instead, their 76-86 clunker feels like a wasted chance for a lineup featuring Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh and Randy Arozarena. BAG

The Pirates could have brought real verve to the postseason with a healthy Konnor Griffin at shortstop and Paul Skenes on the mound. Sadly the team dug too deep a hole in August and, in usual Pirate fashion, didn’t give themselves a chance. AK

That has to be the Orioles, which means Pete Alonso’s F-David Stearns tour won’t see the bright lights of the postseason. The Mets’ president of baseball operations, one with almost all the money in the world at his disposal, who didn’t offer a contract to Alonso – who hit 43 home runs, arguably the second-best season of his career – is finally off the hook. That is, at least until a would-be 2027 season. Too bad. DL

High seed at risk of going out early

The American League’s No 2 seed is an 85-win division champion with a plus-11 run differential who FanGraphs suggests was closer to a .500 ball club. The Guardians have the pitching to thrive in close games, but a lineup without a 20-homer batter leaves them little room for error. BAG

Related: Justin Verlander leaves field in tears with daughter after final start of 21-year career

The Dodgers are finally going to face the consequences that come with age, variance, and having had to play an extra 31 games over the prior two postseasons. They still have no big weaknesses, but their lineup is old (the average age on their roster is 31, making them the oldest team in MLB) and has occasionally looked the part this year. AK

If you needed a team to squeak out a single run under pressure against great playoff pitching, that’s not the Yankeeswith Aaron Judge in the lineup. Without him, against some superb Red Sox hurlers, the swing-and-a-miss Bronx Bombers have even less of a chance of putting runs on the board. They could find themselves bronzing in Cancún sooner rather than later. DL

Dark horse to win

It seems odd to call a team with baseball’s best offense and defense a dark horse, but the Cubs’ leaky relief pitching makes them one. Pete Crow-Armstrong and Alex Bregman give Chicago plenty of ways to win games. If the bullpen can keep the ball in the park, they could go far. BAG

The Rays will always have a dark-horse feel, even in a year when they win the AL East. Pitching could be the difference here: whether injured starter Shane McClanahan returns at some point or not, the deadline acquisition of Freddy Peralta from the Mets ensures rotation depth that will serve this club well. AK

How can a team with 98 wins be a dark horse? When they don’t hit for power, get on base less than the Rockies, and their ability to score is a little better than middle of the road. They play in a condom-covered dump in front of some of the leanest crowds in the league. An inspiring, title-like set up? Nope, and the Rays are dark horses because few fans know they even exist. Pragmatic as they come though; they can pitch and Kevin Cash can manage. The AL can’t handle them, and the Dodgers are vulnerable. DL

Player to watch …

Tarik Skubal arrives in October as the centerpiece of baseball’s most formidable rotation, with a potential record-setting free agency ahead. Every start will be judged against the imposing price the Dodgers paid to acquire him in their bid for a rare third straight title. BAG

Tampa Bay’s Chandler Simpson is a throwback, a defense, speed and batting average-heavy corner outfielder who’s made a place for himself despite lacking the power that makes most great modern hitters. In a lineup with a lot of thump, Simpson’s slap hitting offers a bit of variety. AK

Sticking to my Rays theme, it’s Junior Caminero. The Dominican gets no recognition, or at least not enough, despite crushing close to 90 home runs in two years, while also hitting for average. He’s making strides every season and he’s only 23. At some point the third baseman is going to be very expensive, so who knows how long he’ll remain on the Gulf. At the moment, he’s the straw that stirs Tampa’s tipple, and now Caminero has the spotlight. DL

Most important factor this postseason/offseason

The labor talks. The collective bargaining agreement expires on 1 December and MLB’s salary-cap proposal remains at odds with the players’ intractable position. A lockout could freeze the hot-stove market while a prolonged dispute could torpedo the 2027 season entirely. Whatever happens on the field, the most important baseball story after the Fall Classic will unfold across a bargaining table. BAG

The lack of great teams in the American League. The Rays may be a great team, but is anyone else in the Junior Circuit? MLB’s three best teams – the Brewers, Dodgers and Braves – are all in the NL, and I’d probably prefer the Cubs over any team in the AL at the moment, too. The AL has a true “anyone’s ballgame” feel. You could imagine this league producing a truly weird pennant winner. AK

The postseason CBA negotiations may not bring us world peace, but hopefully they will create a new rule that bans teams with .500 records or worse from winning a division, or reaching the playoffs via a wildcard spot. The team with the best above-.500 record not to qualify for the playoffs, regardless of league, will replace that team, and the sub-.500 bums will not be allowed to complain AT ALL. And God forbid the Astros win the 2026 World Series, I will pull whatever is left of my hair out. Who’s with me? DL

NLCS

Dodgers over Brewers. BAG

Brewers over Dodgers. AK

Brewers over Dodgers. DL

ALCS

Rays over White Sox. BAG

Rays over White Sox. AK

Rays over Guardians. DL

Your World Series winners will be …

The Rays will put the ball in play, run the basepaths aggressively and make the Dodgers earn their outs. But a rotation of Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow gives the Dodgers four starters capable of shutting down the Rays’ contact-heavy lineup, while the incandescent Shohei Ohtani supplies the power capable of turning any close game with one swing of the bat. Milwaukee and Tampa Bay may grade out better analytically, but the smell test clearly favors the Dodgers to become only the third franchise to win three consecutive World Series crowns. BAG

The Brewers will finally get the right October mixture this year. They have the same deep lineup as usual, with no real stars but also no weaknesses. Jacob Misiorowski gives them a rotation trump card that they haven’t had since CC Sabathia’s brief run in Milwaukee after the 2008 trade deadline. And they have the necessary high-leverage relievers (Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe and Aaron Ashby) to feel good about any game that’s still competitive after six innings. AK

In many ways the Brewers and Rays are mirror images of each other, especially when it comes to their contract-based approaches to baseball. They are also similar in the way that absolutely nobody except their fans wants to see such a matchup. The Brewers have the overwhelming ace in Misiorowski, but the Rays have more pitching depth. They’re also due to win, with the owners detesting this matchup which proves lower payroll teams can win it all. And at precisely the wrong time. DL