MLB News
The Braves are hoping to wake up their offense with Strider on the mound to avoid three-straight losses. And for the Red Sox, well, they’re just hoping they can get over 3.7 runs per game. As always, you know where to find us for the recap.
First pitch is set for 6:45 p.m. EDT
Obviously the Detroit Tigers badly need offensive help to return off the injury list. The pitching staff now has Will Vest and Troy Melton back, and Tarik Skubal threw a successful 39 pitch live BP session on Tuesday. Jackson Jobe’s rehab continues to run a little ahead of pace, setting him up for a return to action in July potentially. But the real issue now for the club is a lineup that is dead in the water apart from its three top bats. The Tigers got a mix of good and bad news on that front today
Gleyber Torres had a successful hitting session on Tuesday. He’s been rehabbing his left oblique strain over the past two weeks, running, fielding, and throwing well. However, he had previously experienced some discomfort when taking full swings. If he responds well with no setbacks, he’ll likely have one more cage session before heading on on a rehab assignment according to Evan Woodbery of MLive.
On the other hand, Javier Báez work getting back to full strength has hit a setback. Over the past two weeks, Báez has been trying to get back to full speed in his running and agility progressions, but his right ankle is still bothering him and he hasn’t been able to go all out. As a result, he’ll be seeing a specialist to see if anything was missed in the original diagnosis.
The Tigers really need those two bats to get their offensive game back in order. Torres is obviously a key piece for them as a highly disciplined right-handed hitter who gets on base a lot, works pitchers, and has the ability to hit behind runners on base using the opposite field.
Báez is more of a filler in the lineup, keeping a worse hitter on the bench or down on the farm, and doing most of his damage against lefties and with runners on base. Unfortunately, his defensive presence at shortstop and in center field is where most of his impact is centered these days, and the Tigers are missing him in every way. If he’s not back at full speed, he’s no help at all, and it feels like he’s still several weeks from potentially getting back, assuming this is just lingering pain from the sprain and not something more serious. Báez has been out for a month since rolling his ankle under him sliding into first base on an awkward play back on April 28.
The news is better for Kerry Carpenter, who is continuing his rehab and is hitting regularly again along with his defense and running work. The right fielder has been out since May 10 with an AC joint strain in his left shoulder after colliding with the wall at Kauffman Stadium trying to field a drive from Bobby Witt Jr. that turned into an inside the park home run.
Justin Verlander is scheduled to throw a live BP session tomorrow, but he’s been doing that and it’s a matter of recovering as he needs to before they can start ramping up his workload.
Utilityman Trei Cruz, who the Tigers expected to have as a defensive specialist at least, and depth for the shorstop and center field positions, is rehabbing now in Lakeland and should be back in Toledo by next week.
In prospect injury news, C/1B Josue Briceño is hitting now, about 10 weeks out from wrist tendon surgery. He seems on pace to return to the Double-A Erie SeaWolves sometime in late June. LHP Andrew Sears has made rehab appearances in both the Complex League, and then with the West Michigan Whitecaps back on May 22. He threw three innings in that outing, and should only need one more start there at most to build him up to a return to the Erie SeaWolves. Right-hander Owen Hall has made four shot appearances with the Complex League Tigers and should be nearing a return to the Single-A Lakeland Flying Tigers pretty soon.
After an amazing win last night to get over .500, the Nats will look to keep the good times rolling. The offense put on a show against a usually stingy Guardians pitching staff. They will look to do that again tonight, as they face a crafty lefty. This Nats team needs to show that this hot start is no mirage.
With a lefty on the mound, the Nats are going to make a couple changes to the lineup that put up 10 runs last night. Andres Chaparro will be back at first base, replacing Luis Garcia Jr., who had a big night at the plate yesterday. James Wood will be out in left field and Daylen Lile will be the DH. Keibert Ruiz will be back behind the plate. Cade Cavalli was great last time out and will look to do it again tonight.
The Guardians are also making a couple changes. Daniel Schneemann will get his first start of the series in center field. That will move Steven Kwan to left field and Angel Martinez to right field. Chase DeLauter will be the DH in this one. Outside of that, it is the same personnel as last night. Southpaw Joey Cantillo will be on the mound, and he has a great changeup.
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Game Info:
Stadium: Progressive Field
Time: 6:10 PM EST
TV: Nationals.TV
Radio: 106.7 The Fan
It has been a great time to be a Nats fan lately. Last night was an absolute show from the offense and Zack Littell looked great on the mound. They will look to put another good performance together tonight to get their winning streak to 4 games. Follow along in the comments down below and let’s go Nats!
Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Broadcast: KDKA AM/FM, Sportsnet
Pitching Matchup: TBD vs. Braxton Ashcraft (3-2, 2.89 ERA)
The Pittsburgh Pirates are at home hosting the Chicago Cubs today at beautiful PNC Park.
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Connor Rogers and Joe DeMayo are back in the mud on the latest episode of The Mets Pod, as the Mets had another rather rough week. Connor and Joe let it all out by talking about the losses, the uninspired play, the utter lack of offense, the struggles of Nolan Mclean, and so much more.
Later, the guys go Down on the Farm to introduce you to prospect Channing Austin, and answer Mailbag questions about how to handle a tough Mets summer, the situation at second base, and the future of the Mets front office.
Be sure to subscribe to The Mets Pod at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
The Cincinnati Reds took care of business on Monday night in Queens, taking down the New York Mets by the score of 7-2. Nick Lodolo was excellent, the offense consistently befuddled Mets starter Nolan McLean, and now there’s a chance for Cincinnati to take the series with another victory.
Lucky for the Reds, they get to hand the ball to their resident ace next.
Chase Burns gets the start for Cincinnati on Tuesday evening, and he does so on quite the heater. Over his last 7 starts, he’s fired 42.2 IP and allowed just 6 ER, pairing 46 strikeouts with just 10 walks. He’s pitched to a 1.27 ERA and 2.84 FIP in that time, and pretty consistently has made people look afool in the process.
The Mets will counter with veteran lefty David Peterson, who owns a 6.33 ERA at home this year and a 5.03 ERA overall. The Reds have stacked their lineup with mostly righties as a result, with JJ Bleday the lone true lefty who’s in the starting lineup.
First pitch is set for 7:10 PM ET. Here’s how the Reds will line up to start this one:
The Astros optioned OF Zach Cole to Triple A Sugar Land following last night’s game. Taking his place on the active roster, the Astros reinstated OF Taylor Trammell from the 10-day IL today.
This move makes a lot of sense right now, as Cole (8×51, 3 HR 8 RBI 21K in 51 AB) has struggled with inconsistent playing time and will benefit from regular AB at Sugar Land.
Trammell is also a LH bat and excellent defender, and is more accustomed to a part-time role.
Trammell hit well in spring training, and was 10×29 (.345) with a double, triple, and 4 RBI before landing on the IL in April.
Texas Rangers lineup for May 26, 2026 against the Houston Astros: starting pitchers are Jack Leiter for the Rangers and Jason Alexander for the Astros.
Sigh. Its another game. The Rangers have tried their very best the last several games not to get hits, and accomplished that yesterday. Hopefully today will be different. Josh Jung is back, which I hope will help.
The lineup:
Pederson — DH
Osuna — LF
Nimmo — RF
Jung — 3B
Burger — 1B
Carter — CF
Duran — SS
Foscue — 2B
Higashioka — C
7:05 p.m. Central start time. Rangers are -132 favorites.
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The Seattle Mariners look to gain ground on the Athletics in the AL West when the two teams face off tonight.
Seattle took the series opener 9-2 on Monday, yet is listed as a +100 underdog ahead of tonight’s divisional showdown.
My Mariners vs. A’s predictions break down why there’s a good chance of another convincing Seattle win, with Emerson Hancock facing an unproven A’s rookie.
Read more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, May 26.
While the Seattle Mariners were already looking at a favorable matchup against Luis Severino, the veteran right-hander has been pushed back to start in tomorrow's series finale.
However, a looming matchup against A’s rookie Gage Jump now presents itself as arguably even more advantageous for Seattle, who are rocking a 114 wRC+ on the road over the past month, a far cry from the 91 mark they’ve posted at home.
Jump hasn’t exactly been lights out in the minors this season, posting a 4.50 ERA through 38 innings in Triple-A, including a 4.74 BB/9 and a 16.7% HR/FB rate. This is a perfect spot to fade a young southpaw being thrust into a last-minute debut.
COVERS INTEL: Despite a 26-29 record, Seattle owns a +13 run differential, the fourth-best mark in the AL. That should equate to a 29-26 Pythagorean record that would have the Mariners 10th in baseball.Emerson Hancock’s fastball sits in the 99th percentile in run value at Baseball Savant, and his wFB metric of 8.6 ranks fifth among all eligible pitchers this season.
Meanwhile, the Athletics are having issues generating consistent offense. Their 26.4% hard-hit rate is second-lowest in the majors the past week, driving a 1.28 GB/FB ratio and a .111 ISO.
Once Hancock gives way to the pen, I’m expecting the A’s to continue struggling to find runs. The Mariners rank sixth in BB% and ninth in K% over the past month, and both bullpens should perform well enough to limit late scoring.
The A's are 4-6 SU over their last 10 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. A's.
| Location | Sutter Health Park, Sacramento, CA |
| Date | Tuesday, May 26, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Mariners.TV, NBC Sports California |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Emerson Hancock (3-2, 3.07 ERA) |
| A's starting pitcher | Gage Jump (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
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The sinking Mets made a flurry of roster moves before Tuesday afternoon’s middle game against the Reds at Citi Field. The Mets reinstated A.J. Minter and Jared Young from the Injured List, placed Tyrone Taylor on the 10-Day Injured List with a right hip flexor strain, optioned Nick Morabito and Jonathan Pintaro to Triple-A Syracuse, promoted infielder Eric Wagaman, and will make another corresponding 40-man roster move prior to first pitch at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Minter, who signed a 2-year, $22 million contract in January 2025, underwent season-ending lat surgery in early May after posting a sparkling 1.64 ERA in 13 appearances with the Mets. The left-hander had rehab stints this spring with Single-A St. Lucie, High-A Brooklyn, and most recently Triple-A Syracuse, where he worked a scoreless inning on Sunday. He joins Brooks Raley to form a reliable duo of southpaws at the back end of the Mets’ bullpen.
Pintaro, who allowed just one baserunner and struck out three in 3.2 innings of work since joining the big league club on Saturday, was the odd man out as Minter makes his return.
Just as the Mets get one position player back from injury, they lose another. After appearing to tweak something while getting out of the box on a ground ball during Monday’s game, Taylor is officially headed to the IL. Carlos Mendoza wouldn’t put a strict timetable on Taylor’s recovery, but expressed hope that it would be two or three weeks.
Meanwhile, Jared Young, who had been sidelined since April 13 with a left meniscus tear, returns from his rehab assignment to a roster now occupied with other left-handed options including MJ Melendez and A.J. Ewing. Young and Melendez will both get the starting nod at first base and left field, respectively, on Tuesday night against Cincinnati starter Chase Burns. Prior to his injury, Young put up an .841 OPS in 23 plate appearances with the Mets.
After exactly one week in the majors, Nick Morabito is headed back to Triple-A in order to keep him playing every day, according to Mendoza. The 23-year-old — who ranked No. 15 on Amazin’ Avenue’s top prospect list entering the season — went hitless in 11 at-bats with the Mets, but flashed his good glove in the outfield.
Eric Wagaman, a late April waiver claim, will join the big league roster for the second time this season in search of his Mets debut. The 28-year-old infielder has a career .674 OPS and 0.0 bWAR in 158 games with the Angels and Marlins, but he was absolutely raking with Syracuse, holding a 1.043 OPS over 52 plate appearances and a .481 batting average over his past eight games.
Tuesday notes…
Cubs lineup:
Pirates lineup:
So here we are, with another pitcher from Triple-A Iowa pressed into service because of a rotation injury.
Jordan Wicks was the Cubs’ No. 1 pick out of Kansas State in 2021 and there were great hopes for him to be a solid starter. He did reasonably well in seven starts in 2023 but the next two years were filled with bad pitching and injuries. This year, he suffered nerve irritation in his left forearm and had to start the year on the IL, then had a rehab assignment to Triple-A Iowa and then one start there after being optioned.
Potential hope: Over his last three starts at Iowa, Wicks has allowed only one run in 15 total innings. His walk rate is a bit high, though.
This, obviously, is his MLB season debut for 2026. Hopefully it goes well. The pitch chart below is from last year. It was obviously a very different Pirates team, but Wicks made his MLB debut at PNC Park Aug. 26, 2023 and threw five two-hit innings, striking out nine. Perhaps he can channel that tonight. To date, that’s Wicks’ only career appearance against the Pirates.
Braxton Ashcraft has done well as a full-time member of the Pirates rotation this year: 10 starts, 2.89 ERA, 1.027 WHIP. That includes five innings of one-run ball against the Cubs April 11 at Wrigley Field.
This month he has a 1.91 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in four starts, with 26 strikeouts and only four walks in 28.1 innings.
So tonight will not be an easy task for Cubs hitters.
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Today’s game is on Marquee Sports Network.
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Baseball-reference.com game preview
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The 2026 game discussion procedure has been changed, so please take note.
You’ll find the game preview, like this one, posted separately on the front page two hours before game time (90 minutes for some early day games following night games).
At the same time, a StoryStream containing the preview will also post on the front page, titled “Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of week/date) game threads.” It will contain every post related to that particular game.
The Live! (formerly “First Pitch”) thread will still post at five minutes to game time. It will also post to the front page. That will be the only live game discussion thread. After the game, the recap and Heroes and Goats will also live on the front page as separate posts.
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Many factors have contributed to the strong start, but what have we actually learned that we didn’t already expect entering the season?
The Rays entered the season with a much stronger pitching outlook than they had in 2025 thanks to the additions of Martinez and Matz, along with the return to the pitcher-friendly Trop. McClanahan’s return from injury has also gone about as well as the organization could have hoped – especially when considering he hasn’t pitched in a Major League game since 2023. Rasmussen continues to be as reliable as they come, and Jax’s much-anticipated transition to the rotation has gone well so far. Pepiot’s injury was surprising and disappointing, but the depth has held up and we haven’t really learned anything new about the rotation.
We also knew the bullpen had plenty depth, and that depth has already been tested with Uceta and Wilson on the 60-day IL to begin the season. IL stints from Cleavinger and now Sulser have further tested that depth. Despite those injury concerns, the bullpen has performed relatively well. They’re roughly league average in earned runs per batter faced — a useful bullpen metric because it accounts for workload — and middle of the pack in save-plus-hold conversion rate. Ben Williamson (a position player who has pitched 1 inning), Yoendrys Gomez, Chase Solesky, and Aaron Brooks have combined for a 7.48 ERA in 21.2 IP this season and are skewing the bullpen performance quite a bit.
One thing we’ve learned: the Rays have a closer, and his name is Bryan Baker. All offseason the idea was there would be a “closer by committee” approach, but that hasn’t happened, although Cash will use Baker to pitch the eighth inning if that’s when the heart of the opposing lineup is batting. There are still four relievers with multiple saves and I expect that to continue to some extent, but Baker has made the most of the opportunity given to him.
We knew the catching group would be better on both sides of the ball compared to 2025. It has been a bit of a surprise to see Nick Fortes get so much playing time – he has appeared in 42 of the team’s 51 games so far while Feduccia has played in 29. The Rays currently have the 12th best wRC+ from their catching group and are 3rd in framing strike rate. The duo we have right now is looking good, and Dom Keegan could see some reps in the majors at some point later in the summer.
The infield (plus DH) is still the strongest group of players on this team. Aranda, Caminero, and Yandy lead the way while Williamson and Palacios have made solid contributions so far. Taylor Walls surprised everyone with a quick return from an early IL stint, and it was good timing too as the game appeared to be a little too quick for Carson Williams. The infield has converted ground balls into outs at roughly a league-average rate, but I expect that to improve a bit as Caminero continues to find his groove defensively and Williamson gets more comfortable with his transition to second base.
The outfield has been better, but that was expected. The improvement has been driven by a shift towards more plate discipline and contact profiles on the offensive side while year-over-year improvements from Cedric Mullins and Chandler Simpson have helped make this unit one of the better defensive groups in the league. The Rays convert fly balls and line drives into outs 61.8% of the time – the third highest rate in the league and well above the average of 57.7%. Unsurprisingly to some, Ryan Vilade has been impactful on both sides of the ball with his 140 wRC+ and three defensive runs saved in the outfield.
The main thing we’ve learned is that the new Rays offense works. The run environment is different than it was a few years ago, and the Rays have put together an offense that is built for it. I expected them to be a playoff team, but I didn’t expect a 108-win pace. This pace is unlikely to hold for any club over a full season, but this looks like a legitimate playoff team. It’ll be interesting to see how aggressively the Rays approach the deadline as they try to improve the roster while also managing the coming Rule 5 crunch.
This has been a rough year when it comes to notable names in Atlanta Braves history passing away. There was the double blow of losing both Ted Turner and Bobby Cox within the same week and now a former player has passed on. The Braves somberly shared the news that former star Bob Horner has passed away at the age of 68.
As the post shared, Horner left an indelible mark on the franchise while he donned the Atlanta uniform. He was picked first overall in 1978, he didn’t play a single game in the minors before making his big league debut and just to show that he belonged, he clubbed a homer in his first game as well and eventually earned the National League Rookie of the Year honors for that season.
Horner went on to spend nine seasons with the Braves where he earned an All-Star spot in 1982, hit four homers in a game in 1986 and he finished his Braves career with a slash line of .277/.340/.499 with an OPS of .839 and a OPS+ of 127. After becoming a free agent, he spent one season with the Yakult Swallows in Japan (which ended up being the best spot for him after it came out that the owners were colluding against free agents at the time) before joining the St. Louis Cardinals for the season after that. A shoulder injury derailed Horner’s time in St. Louis and he eventually called it a career once spring training rolled around the next season.
There wasn’t a ton for Braves fans to cheer about during the 1980s but if there was something to cheer about, there was a decent chance that it involved either Dale Murphy or Bob Horner. He remained a popular figure among Braves fans who had been fans during that time and he’s still a name that comes up whenever fans from that era reminisce about those days. He’ll be missed among fans across Braves Country. May he rest in peace.
It took Baty longer to get going than anyone would have liked. but he does seem to have turned the corner while hitting .293 with two homers, eight RBI and six walks in his last 12 games. And he's doing that while playing regularly against lefties, not because he's succeeding against them but because the Mets just don't have any better options. Their injury issues, which have led to Baty batting fourth and fifth against righties, definitely play a role in making Baty a smart pickup at this time.
⚾️ Baseball is back! MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.
There was some genuine optimism about Baty coming into the year after he hit .291 with nine homers in the second half of last year and improved his exit velocity numbers. He hasn't really built on any of that so far, but he's still showing 84th percentile bat speed while maintaining the improvement in his chase rate. There's still too much swing-and-miss in his game, but he has the power to make up for it, if only his 10 barrels so far had translated into more than three homers. There really ought to be more doubles and homers on the way with his groundball rate right around the league average; he's at 43 percent right now after coming into the year at 52 percent lifetime.
Also making Baty attractive is his wealth of position eligibility. He's added first base and outfield to the mix this year after starting 60 games at third base and 46 at second base last season. It's too bad for him that the Mets play in a tough ballpark and aren't providing a lot of run and RBI opportunities at the moment, but full-time at-bats from Baty as both an MI and a CI option make him worth rostering right now.
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Two years after being drafted 73rd overall out of LSU, Jump is set to make his major league debut Tuesday against the Mariners. The 24-year-old struck out one-third of the batters he faced in nine starts for Triple-A Las Vegas, amassing a 56/20 K/BB in 38 innings. He had a 4.50 ERA, but that's fine in a very tough environment for pitchers.
A’s prospect Gage Jump’s first bullpen of Spring Training. pic.twitter.com/EXA15Vajlt
— Martín Gallegos (@MartinJGallegos) February 12, 2026
Jump's short-arm delivery produces 94-98 mph fastballs and very good mid-80s sliders. His split-change lacks much movement, so he'll start his major league career leaning on his top two pitches. If the command is there, the two offerings will make him an above average starter right away. However, his walk rate is up to 11.8 percent this year after coming in at 7.4 percent at lower levels last year. Before throwing seven scoreless innings last time out, he'd topped out at 4 2/3 innings in his first eight starts for Las Vegas. Part of that was because the A's were handling him carefully, but it was also true that it was taking him about 80 pitches to get through four innings. On May 8, he threw 103 pitches to get 14 outs.
Maybe Jump actually did turn the corner after that May 8 outing against the St. Paul Saints. He'd thrown 11 scoreless innings with a 15/1 K/BB since. He's overwhelmed lefties all year, limiting them to a .118 average. Righties, though, have hit .296 off him, and one can be sure MLB teams will set their lineups accordingly. With the Athletics' temporary home in Sacramento playing as an extreme hitter's park, Jump seems too risky to try in mixed leagues right now.
After giving up three runs and throwing 32 pitches against the Mariners on Sunday, Lucas Erceg should not have been back on the mound for the Royals trying to protect a one-run lead against the Yankees on Monday. But there he was, and though the Yankees did not hit the ball particularly hard against him, he gave up two more runs to take his second loss and fourth blown save of the year. He has a 5.06 ERA and a poor 18/13 K/BB in 21 1/3 innings.
Working prior to Erceg on Monday was Lynch. The left-hander threw a scoreless eighth and would have been in line for a win if Erceg had converted the save. The outing lowered Lynch's ERA to 1.59. He has a 27/7 K/BB and has allowed just one homer in 22 2/3 innings. At this point, he seems like the Royals' best option in the ninth.
Previously a weak starter and then a generic reliever, Lynch has busted out by trading four-seamers for sinkers and improving his slider. He combats righties with a trusty changeup that has always served him well. He has a 95th percentile whiff rate this year, and his strikeout rate has climbed from 16 percent last season to 30 percent right now. Maybe he shouldn't be getting all of the save chances for the Royals; especially with Matt Strahm out, he will be needed to face lefties earlier in games on occasion. But Lynch is the Royals' most trustworthy arm right now, and with Erceg looking like middle-relief material, he seems worthy of a pickup.
- Instead of Jump, Christian Scott (13 percent rostered), Jack Leiter (31 percent), Griffin Jax (29 percent) and Troy Melton (17 percent) are some mostly available starters worth a try in shallow leagues.
- Jake McCarthy is leading off for the Rockies and getting all of the playing time he can handle with Mickey Moniak, Brenton Doyle and Jordan Beck all on the IL for Colorado. He's a fine short-term option for teams looking to add stolen bases.
Three keys: Creativity can help Aaron Nola right ship in San Diego originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
SAN DIEGO — The Phillies’ top three starters have been lights out lately.
Since Zack Wheeler returned to the rotation on April 25, Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo have combined to go 10-1 in 17 starts with a 1.46 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Opponents are slashing .192/.243/.269 against them.
Outstanding.
That kind of production has helped mask some of the inconsistency from the back end of the rotation.
The Phillies have recently gotten more from rookie right-hander Andrew Painter, who has a 2.60 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over his last three starts. The 23-year-old has made adjustments to his pitch mix and usage, which has helped him hit his stride as the Phillies continue to do the same under interim manager Don Mattingly.
The one rotation constant during their 18-8 stretch under Mattingly has been Aaron Nola’s struggles.
Nola will take the ball Tuesday night against the Padres at Petco Park. Through his first 10 starts, the Phillies’ longest-tenured player has a 6.01 ERA. He has allowed 61 hits in 50 2/3 innings. Only three of his outings have been quality starts — against the Rockies, Giants and Marlins.
Those three teams have a combined .415 winning percentage and .688 OPS this season.
San Diego may look like a tougher task at 31-22, good for the top Wild Card spot in the National League. But the Padres have produced a .657 OPS, the second worst mark in the Majors.
So, how can Nola bounce back?
THE SEQUENCE
The pitch that has hamstrung Nola in his 12th big league season has been his four-seam fastball.
Opponents are hitting .417 against it with an astronomical .958 slugging percentage. That opponent slug would be close to double his career high against the pitch.
Left-handed hitters have done the most damage, hitting .484 with a 1.065 slugging percentage and 97.2 mph average exit velocity.
It has not been a competitive pitch.
Luckily for Nola, he will face a Padres lineup with just two left-handed hitters, the fewest he has faced in a start this season. Gavin Sheets has posted a .902 OPS against righties. Jackson Merrill is batting just .194 against right-handers.
That could allow Nola to lean more heavily on his knuckle curve, which has been his most reliable weapon this year. Opponents have struggled against it from both sides. Right-handed hitters are batting .189 against the pitch. Lefties are at .229.
Nola threw the pitch on the first pitch seven times in his last start, six of them for strikes. He threw it for a strike at an 85 percent rate, a season high. If there was a positive from that outing, it was that.
The ability to throw the knuckle curve in any count helps him pitch backward. It can also open up more creativity with his changeup. Nola throws it only five percent of the time against righties, but it could become a strikeout pitch if he is ahead with two strikes.
LIMIT THE HEATER?
Nola is going to have to get creative if he moves away from the four-seamer.
It is a pitch this Padres lineup can damage.
Nola’s four-seamer averages 92.1 mph. San Diego’s hitters have slashed .289/.418/.467 against four-seamers at 92.1 mph or lower this season. Their average drops to .266 against four-seamers at 93 mph or lower and .236 at 94 mph or lower.
One pitch right-handed hitters have handled against Nola is the sinker. But the Padres have posted just a .715 OPS against sinkers and two-seamers.
Boring that pitch in on the hands of San Diego’s right-handed bats could help Nola induce softer contact, something he has struggled to do this year. According to Statcast, he is in the 32nd percentile among pitchers with a 41.9 percent hard-hit rate.
Tunneling the knuckle curve with the sinker against a mostly right-handed Padres lineup could be a key to a bounce-back outing.
STAY AHEAD
This can be said about any pitcher, but Nola’s numbers show a stark difference between pitching ahead and pitching behind.
When Nola gets ahead 0-1, hitters have a .314 on-base percentage. If the season ended today, that would still be a career high, but it has at least limited opposing bats.
When he falls behind 1-0, that OBP jumps to .388 with a .903 OPS.
And Nola cannot simply steal a first-pitch strike by catching too much plate.
Of the 25 balls put in play against Nola’s first pitch this season, he has allowed 11 hits, a .440 average and two homers. He carries a 7.71 ERA on the first pitch. That ERA has been north of seven in first-pitch situations over the past four seasons.
That circles back to pitch diversity.
Nola does not need to reinvent himself Tuesday night. But against a Padres lineup that has struggled overall and will not be stacked with left-handed bats, there is a path. It likely starts with fewer predictable four-seamers, more early-count curveballs and enough sinkers to keep righties from leaning out over the plate.
NOTES
Mattingly will go with Kyle Schwarber in the leadoff spot Tuesday. Trea Turner will bat second. The Phillies’ interim skipper will give Adolis García “a day” and play Edmundo Sosa out in left field, with Brandon Marsh in right.
Turner is batting .115 over his last seven games with three hits in 26 at-bats. Schwarber, meanwhile, has a 1.204 OPS over his last 15 games. As Mattingly put it, moving him to leadoff gives the Phillies “boom out of the gate.”
The argument against Schwarber in the leadoff spot in the past has been that it can clog the basepaths for Turner. But right now, the Phillies’ shortstop is not getting on base enough to use his legs.
Until he does, giving the club’s hottest hitter a chance to provide thump at the top of the lineup makes sense. Schwarber’s big swings have been the difference plenty of times lately, especially working hand-in-hand with their dominant pitching performances.