Category: MLB

Last year, the Yankees dealt two legitimately interesting prospects, Roc Riggio and Ben Shields, to get reliever Jake Bird from the Colorado Rockies at the Trade Deadline. Their experiment wasn’t successful, at least in 2025, as he posted a 27.00 ERA in a couple of innings with the team before being optioned to Triple-A, where he also struggled to the tune of a 6.32 ERA in 15.2 frames.

It was an ugly initial showing for Bird, but the bright side was that the Yankees knew they had three years of team control remaining on the righty, whose tantalizing pitches helped him fan 62 batters in 54.1 innings for Colorado prior to the trade. This offseason, Bird effectively hit the reset button as he turned 30, worked on his stuff, and resurfaced with New York in February, ready to turn the page and make his mark on a new year with his new team. He had no guarantee to make the team, but he earned his Opening Day spot in the 2026 bullpen.

After a fine spring that included a 2.70 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 10 innings, Bird has pitched 3.1 scoreless frames to open the campaign, with three punchouts, no walks, and just one hit allowed. The sample is still, of course, quite tiny, but it’s plain to see that he looks confident and in control on the mound. Last year, let’s just say that wasn’t the case.

What’s behind Bird’s early success? Why is he looking so much better this year than last? Well, he made some key adjustments in his repertoire and pitch mix, and they are paying off.

In 2025, Bird’s most frequently used offering was the sweeper, which he threw 40.5 percent of the time. The sinker, at 33.6 percent, was his second most frequently used pitch, and the curveball checked in at third with 22.7 percent. He also threw a cutter (2.5 percent of the time) and a four-seamer (0.6 percent) to complement his arsenal.

Again, it’s still too soon to conclude that the pitch mix he has used in 2026 will stick, because he has only faced 11 hitters, but Bird and the Yankees completely overhauled the way he uses his pitches.

This time around, Bird is prioritizing the sinker, throwing it 56.4 percent of the time. He is also getting amazing results with it: a .119 xwOBA and 30-percent whiff rate from 22 offerings, amazing for the pitch type in question, but almost certainly unsustainable once the sample grows. Nonetheless, the progress is quite apparent.

The four-seamer, which is up a tick in comparison to last season (95.2 mph this year vs. 94.2 mph in 2025), is now second in his arsenal after barely being used in 2025. In fact, he’s already thrown it more times this year than all of last year, 9-6. The only hit he’s surrendered, a ground-ball single from Heliot Ramos that snuck by Ryan McMahon and José Caballero, came off a four-seamer, but it certainly wasn’t well-struck.

Bird’s third pitch thus far is his familiar sweeper, which he’s thrown eight times. Although four missed the zone (as sweepers are wont to do), he got called strikes on two of them, induced a groundout from Casey Schmitt, and struck out Willy Adames. Not bad at all. It’s fair to say that this is closer to the pitcher the Yankees thought they were acquiring last year.

So what has changed besides the pitch mix? Well, a couple of things.

Last year, Bird’s sinker averaged 11.3 inches of horizontal movement, and when he came to the Bronx, his command of the pitch was not good. In 2026, the pitch is averaging 16.5 inches of horizontal movement. That, coming in at an average speed of 94.8 mph while also being wary of the filthy sweeper, is just not easy to hit.

Now, he can use that sinker to get grounders:

Or even as a swing and miss pitch due to its incredible arm-side movement:

Last year, it quickly became evident that the command of the pitch just wasn’t there, as can be seen in this short clip of Kyle Stowers’ grand slam on a middle-middle sinker with little movement:

That was the meatball of all meatballs in a nightmare of an introduction. In the small sample that this year has given us, Bird has mostly avoided the fat part of the zone with his sinker.

Additionally, his sweeper can do this:

When Bird gets ahead of the count against a righty, the probability of him getting a strikeout on a sweeper away and out of the zone is quite high.

Bird’s 63.6 percent first-pitch strike rate would be a career-high, but it’s still far too early to declare him fully back until we see it for a much longer period. It wasn’t right for fans to declare him toast after just three games in pinstripes last year, and it wouldn’t be right to declare him the next great setup man after just three games this year. All the same, the early signs of a breakout are there, and the Yankees will hopefully reap the benefits of their patience and the pitcher’s hard work.

Great news, prospect fans. Yesterday was the last day (off days notwithstanding) that only one San Francisco Giants Minor League Baseball affiliate was in action. Today there will be two affiliates playing baseball, and on Friday we get four. As summer rolls closer, we’ll get seven!

For now though, it’s just one team and a lot of news. Let’s dive in.

Link to the 2026 McCovey Chronicles Community Prospect List (CPL)

All listed positions in the roundup are the position played in that particular game.

News

Wednesday brought a lot of news to the farm, because of the release of rosters. But before we get to that, a small amount of transactions came across the wire. Most notably, the Giants re-signed veteran catcher Eric Haase to a Minor League deal. Haase was signed over the offseason as a Minor League free agent with an invite to camp, but lost the backup catcher battle to Daniel Susac (No. 20 CPL). Rather than being reassigned to Minor League camp, he was released, presumably due to an opt-out in his contract. But with no better situations calling his name, Haase has returned to San Francisco’s system, which is huge. While the Giants have an intriguing prospect in Jesús Rodríguez (No. 16 CPL) in AAA, he’s still a little bit of a question mark with the glove. They’ll need a third-string catcher at some point — either injury or Susac struggles will mandate it — and having a veteran in Sacramento is very important.

That’s the only transaction for now, but there’s probably another coming down the pipeline. During Wednesday’s loss to the San Diego Padres, San Francisco reliever José Buttó exited the game with arm discomfort, which usually means a trip to the Injured List. AAA Sacramento’s game followed San Francisco’s, so the coaching staff already had that information. Despite that, RHPs Tristan Beck and Michael Fulmer both pitched in the game, which would suggest that RHP Spencer Bivens is the player the Giants will call up if Buttó does, indeed, hit the IL.

Now, let’s get to the rosters! AA Richmond, High-A Eugene, and Low-A San Jose all released their rosters on Wednesday. Check them out:

A few things to note here. While not surprising, the team’s top two draft picks from last year — first-round infielder Gavin Kilen (No. 7 CPL) and third-round outfielder Trevor Cohen (No. 15 CPL) both got the aggressive assignment to High-A. That’s not shocking for early-round college bats who have polished skillsets, but it’s certainly notable, especially since Kilen had just 43 plate appearances in Low-A last year, and really struggled (though he was playing through an injury), while Cohen had 130 plate appearances in Low-A (he played quite well).

Kilen should get everyday reps at shortstop for now, due in part to a mildly surprising assignment: shortstop Maui Ahuna (No. 33 CPL) is opening the year in AA Richmond. On the one hand, it makes sense, as Ahuna, a 4th-round pick in 2023, is entering his third full season in the Minors, just turned 24, and is a defensive wizard. On the other hand, he has a massive hole in his contact tool, and injuries have limited him to just 11 games in High-A … after just 60 in Low-A. Whether this assignment is due to the Giants being confident in Ahuna’s ability to shine in AA, or due to roster logistics, it’s an exciting show of faith in Ahuna, who played for Tony Vitello at Tennessee.

Another exciting assignment is LHP Luis De La Torre (No. 14 CPL) getting to front High-A Eugene’s rotation. De La Torre had a breakout 2025 which started in rookie ball, but ended with Low-A San Jose. He only made 8 starts with the Baby Giants, but shined. An aggressive, but well-deserved assignment.

You might notice that LHP Jacob Bresnahan (No. 11 CPL) and infielder Jean Carlos Sio (No. 44 CPL) are absent from the rosters, along with RHP Josh Bostick (No. 22 CPL). Bresnahan (who will definitely be in High-A), and Sio (who will probably be in High-A, but possibly in AA) are seemingly a little behind on the health front, though neither seems to have a serious issue. Bostick, as has been reported, tore his Achilles in the offseason and will likely miss the entire season.

And those are the rosters! What stands out to you?

AAA Sacramento (3-2)

Sacramento River Cats beat the Salt Lake Bees (Angels) 10-5
Box score

Just as the Giants did on Tuesday, the River Cats’ offense finally broke through on Wednesday, with a performance much more befitting the Pacific Coast League environment than their earlier games. Despite miserable weather — which ended the game in the middle of the 9th inning, costing the Bees a chance for a 5-run comeback — the River Cats exploded for 14 hits, 6 extra-base hits, and 10 runs.

Leading the charge was the fill-in at shortstop, Thomas Gavello, who hit 2-5 with a pair of RBIs and a strikeout, while becoming Sacramento’s first player to hit a ball over the fence this year.

It’s a wildly exciting time to like shortstops and follow the Giants farm. Josuar González (No. 2 CPL) and Luis Hernández (No. 6 CPL) will be splitting reps in the ACL; Jhonny Level (No. 3 CPL) and Lorenzo Meola (No. 23 CPL) will be doing the same in San Jose; Gavin Kilen (No. 7 CPL) and Maui Ahuna (No. 33 CPL) will be anchoring Eugene and Richmond’s respective rosters. But there’s a hole in AAA, where shortstop has really just been a spot for emergency depth. Osleivis Basabe figures to get the bulk of the reps there when he returns from the Injured List, and starting the year at the six was Tyler Fitzgerald, until he was DFA’d a few days ago.

So now it’s Gavello who gets to fill in, and the utility player did an admirable job on Wednesday, though he committed an error.

While Gavello had the 4-bagger, the most runs batted in went to right fielder Grant McCray, who bounced back from a rough series opener to have an utterly dynamic game, hitting 2-5 with 2 doubles and 3 RBIs.

It’s extremely early days, but one thing to watch with McCray this year is his swing-and-miss. He’s always had a lot of whiff in his game, and last year in AAA had a 27.1% strikeout rate, while carrying a career 42.9% rate in 156 MLB plate appearances. He made some significant changes to his setup this offseason, and struck out just 15.0% of the time in Spring Training. So far that number is a tidy 16.7% in AAA though, again, we’re only 5 games into the season. Something to watch.

Joining McCray in the double-double category was catcher Eric Haase, who made his Sacramento debut after re-signing with the organization on a Minor League deal. Haase jumped straight into the lineup, and hit 3-5 with 2 doubles, while also striking out twice. It’s always good to see players have great days, though Haase — a 33-year old who has spent parts of 8 seasons in the Majors — is a known entity at this point. He’s not really going to play his way onto the MLB roster … he’s just there to be a quality veteran fill-in whenever it’s needed.

First baseman Bryce Eldridge (No. 1 CPL) had his best game of the season, which will certainly go noticed given San Francisco’s rough offensive start and Casey Schmitt’s difficult defensive day at first base yesterday. Eldridge went 2-4 in this game, smacked a double, and reached base 4 times total, as he also drew a walk and was hit by a pitch, without striking out.

We’ve yet to see Eldridge’s transcendent power — he doesn’t have a home run this year, and that double was his first extra-base hit — but he’s showing a polished offensive game in the early going. In 5 games he’s already drawn 5 walks, and, painfully enough, has also been hit on 3 different occasions. He’s also had an encouraging 23.1% strikeout rate though, again, extremely early and small sample size.

A pair of other players reached base thrice: third baseman Buddy Kennedy, who has been the team’s hottest hitter so far this year, went 1-4 with a walk, a hit by pitch, 2 strikeouts, and an error, while designated hitter Nate Furman (No. 39 CPL) hit 1-3 with a walk, a hit by pitch, and a strikeout. In all, 4 River Cats were hit by pitches, while 0 Bees were. Rude, though I guess not surprising … cats are significantly easier to hit with baseballs than bees are.

The pitching was less exciting, but reasonably effective against a Salt Lake offense that is full of players with MLB experience, including former Giant Wade Meckler, who drew a walk off the bench.

LHP John Michael Bertrand got the start and gave up a lot of baserunners, but limited the damage. In just 4 innings, Bertrand allowed 6 hits and 2 walks, but thanks to a combination of sequencing and soft contact — all of the hits were singles — he only allowed 2 runs, just 1 of which was earned. He also struck out 4 batters.

Bertrand, a 28-year old who was taken in the 10th round of the 2022 draft, is in a bit of an odd spot. He’s certainly a low-profile starter compared to some of the other arms in Sacramento, and he doesn’t have the nasty stuff that makes an MLB career inevitable. But he just gets outs wherever he goes, and has some funk from the left side. One would think there will be a role for him in the Majors some day.

RHP Tristan Beck continued to show off some serious electricity, as he seems notably nastier than in past years. He entered the game in the 6th inning with 2 outs and a runner on, and promptly gave up a single and a 2-run double (which gave an earned run each to himself and RHP Marques Johnson), the latter to Vaughn Grissom, a rehabbing Major Leaguer. But after that, Beck struck out the next/last 4 batters that he faced, and he did it in phenomenally dominant fashion, needing just 14 pitches — only 2 above the minimum – for those 4 Ks. Nasty!

RHP Michael Fulmer also got into the game, as he continues to audition for a role in San Francisco’s bullpen. The rain got to him a bit as he walked 2 batters in his inning of work (he came out for the 9th as well, before the inning was cancelled), but he didn’t allow any hits or runs, and struck out 2 batters.

Home run tracker

1 — Thomas Gavello — [AAA]

Thursday schedule

Sacramento: 5:35 p.m. PT at Salt Lake (SP: Carson Whisenhunt)
Richmond: Season starts Friday
Eugene: Season starts Friday
San Jose: 7:05 p.m. PT at Stockton (SP: TBD)

For many years, fans of Midwest and northeast teams wondered why MLB didn’t schedule most early series in warmer weather. Now, for two seasons they’ve made it happen. Just like the 2025 season, when they opened against the Dodgers and the Mariners on the road, the Tigers opening road trip has ended with a 4-2 record after a series victory over the Padres and then getting swept out of Arizona.

Of course, we have the voice of Sparky Anderson in our ears this time of year, reminding us to give it 40 games before making any definitive conclusions about a team. Even that only tells you so much, as teams evolve and change throughout a season to an even greater degree than they did in Sparky’s day. That would put up into the road series against division rivals in Kansas City from May 8-10 before the old skipper would say you really know the team you have for the season. Of course, the 2025 Tigers at the 40, 80, and even 120 game mark didn’t prepare us for the utter collapse of the club over the final five weeks of the season. Baseball.

Personally, while the 40-game thing makes sense as a quality sample before considering too much radical reaction, I’ve started to think more in terms of 10-game blocks, corresponding to two turns through the rotation. That also provides a little easy comparison with the old 16-game NFL schedule most of us grew up on. Thinking of it that way, the Tigers are down two scores early in the third quarter of their first game. Breaking it down like that is just more natural to me, avoiding wild overreactions to any short stretch of games, without just sitting back for a month and a half watching things unfold.

However you break it down, overreactions in either direction are pretty ridiculous at this point. Whether you were pretty confident in the Tigers heading into the season, or whether you think the club still has too many flaws to be a top threat in October, you should probably keep that energy through April. Or you can ride the rollercoaster. To each their own.

Slumber instead of lumber

The argument for the Tigers this year is pretty simple. They won 86 games in 2024, 87 in 2025, and they added one of the better starting pitchers in baseball and called up arguably the best prospect in baseball into their everyday lineup. Of course, Framber Valdez and Kevin McGonigle’s ability to put the Tigers over the top to finally win the division is predicated on the other regulars in the rotation and lineup handling their business as expected.

In the early going, Colt Keith and Dillon Dingler have been excellent, both showing some signs of building on their 2025 campaigns. Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson, who are needed to provide plenty of power and run production, have scuffled. Kerry Carpenter meanwhile, has started off the year in a deep funk, striking out 12 times in just 25 plate appearances.

Obviously the Tigers need those three bats to give the Tigers similar production to last year, at a minimum. You’d love the three to be more consistent as well, but there aren’t many in the game, even among “All-Star” caliber hitters, who bang out good production month after month without any slumps during a baseball season. As long as they combine for 80 homers or more with a good combined on-base percentage, the Tigers’ run production will be in a good place. Likewise, a really bad year from one of them could really undercut the offense.

Torkelson really seemed to settle into his major league groove last season, avoiding the catastrophic slumps that plagued him from 2022-2024. He’s also the one with the most disciplined approach and should benefit somewhat more from the ABS challenge system than the rest. Of course, he’s got to use those challenges wisely to get the most of it, and that’s a unique new skill introduced to MLB this season.

Greene I just don’t worry about except physically. He’d trended steadily better and better through four seasons in the league until falling apart in the second half last year. At age 25, he’s just into what should be his prime years, but he also lost another step in the speed department last year. If you’re feeling worried about Greene’s ability to get back on track at the plate, that’s fair. I’m not, but it is at least clear that his defensive value has slipped considerably and there’s no injury to pin it on. Seeing Hinch pinch-run Jahmai Jones for Greene in the top of the ninth on Wednesday was just another signal that Greene’s once modestly above average speed is gone and that’s going to continue to ding his defensive profile.

As for Carpenter, this is where I get a little more concerned. Carpenter’s plate discipline and contact ability have always been mediocre, but he’s more than made up for it by pulling the ball in the air a lot and doing plenty of damage. However, he’s also been riddled with back and hamstring issues over the past few years, and unlike the other two sluggers, Carpenter isn’t in his mid-20’s, and is instead closing in on 29 years old this summer. For a baseball player in this era, that’s getting into middle age where hitting smarts have to make up for physical decline. At least Carpenter is moving well and looks healthy right now, so hopefully he’ll get going, but another season trying to play through nagging injuries will do his numbers no good.

Beyond Keith and Dingler, obviously the big story here is McGonigle. He’s shown himself fully ready to handle major league pitching, producing plenty of hard contact, plenty of hits, plenty of walks, and minimal strikeouts. He holds a 187 wRC+ through six major league games, with 12 percent walk and strikeout rates. Even better, he’s been a bit unlucky and his control of the strikezone has been elite in the very early going. As promised since early on last season, the Tigers have an absolute gem here. His upgraded defense and sprint times have just been icing on the cake.

In other, yes it’s extremely early news, Max Clark is off to a nice start with the Mud Hens. He needs that seasoning in my opinion, whereas McGonigle did not, but hopefully Clark will be ready to bring that athleticism, discipline, and contact ability to the Tigers lineup by mid-season if not sooner.

Starting rotation

You can take it as a positive early sign or be frustrated by the fact that the Tigers’ rotation did their job pretty well and yet the team only came away with two wins. They got four excellent starts, one poor one from Jack Flaherty, and one from Justin Verlander that was just bad. The Tigers will do well this season if that’s how most six game stretches play out.

Having Tarik Skubal and Framber Valdez atop the rotation has looked every bit as good as expected. Casey Mize stuggled to spot his fastball and breaking stuff early on in his outing against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, but he managed to survive with some heavy doses of his splitter and his command improved as he went along. He finished his six inning outing with one earned run allowed, racking up 15 whiffs and seven strikeouts on the night. The interaction between his two fastball types and the splitter has never looked better to me.

Verlander however, just had nothing for the Diamondbacks on Monday. He’s always conserved his energy in early spring and paced himself for a seven month season. The fact that his velocity was down to 93.2 mph from his 2025 average (93.9 mph) isn’t my concern, particularly as he was feeling for his mechanics the whole outing. His fastball command and ability to shape and spot his breaking stuff were wildly inconsistent. We’ll see better command as long as he’s feeling healthy, but for all of us already fearful of a failed last stand for the 43-year-old future Hall of Famer, a little reassurance in the form of some quality starts early on would help the cause over the rest of the month. His margin for error is reduced from even 2-3 years ago, and he’s relying on command of the full pitch mix these days.

Bullpen issues forever

Unfortunately, the reconstructed bullpen couldn’t give us even a week of peace before the Tigers’ unending struggles in this department reared their head again. The Tigers signed Kyle Finnegan after getting some good work from him in the second half last year. That looks like a good addition. The Tigers got the right-hander using his splitter a lot more than he did in Washington, with good effect. This spring his velocity has been up a touch and his slider has looked pretty good as well. After pitching in semi-obscurity for a team notorious for its poor pitching development, the Tigers may have caught Finnegan at the right time to get a peak season or two out of him.

On the downside, Kenley Jansen gave the Tigers one good outing to close out the Padres on Opening Day, but then was called into a desperate situation on Tuesday after Drew Anderson got into trouble trying to hold a big lead for a second inning. Will Vest came on and was wild for a few hitters, digging the hole much deeper, until finally righting the ship and getting the first two outs of the inning. By then he was at 27 pitches, and Hinch decided to turn to Jansen. The veteran relief great fired two cutters down to get to a 1-1 count, and then fired a third right into rookie Jose Fernandez’s sweet spot and it got launched for the second home run of the rookie’s major league debut.

Leaving aside the fact that Jansen’s strikeout rates took a big hit in 2025 and he fits better as a setup level reliever now and shouldn’t be the automatic closer, this was also one of those moments where Hinch gave a new reliever an early test and it really blew up in his face. Anderson is still getting used to relief work. Taking his strong first inning and saying thank you very much, was probably the move. Vest in the eighth, Jansen in the ninth, no one has to enter in the middle of someone else’s jam. Hinch believes in testing guys in unfamiliar scenarios early in the season, and there’s some wisdom in that, but in this case, Vest struggled, and that led to Jansen, who has spent his career mainly pitching with a clean slate in the ninth even throughout the long prime of his career. Now that’s he’s just a setup caliber reliever rather than an ace closer, having to put him into fireman situations is rather less than ideal.

The Tigers boosted their depth and got some insurance for the rotation this offseason by signing left-hander Enmanuel de Jesus and right-hander Drew Anderson after both pitched well as starters in South Korea last year. Quite a few teams have found bargains coming back from the KBO, and both pitchers looked good in spring camp and have had some time to get acclimated to both the bullpen and the MLB ball. They both have enough stuff to start, and should give A.J. Hinch a lot of flexibiity in long and middle relief, but early on their command out of the pen has been shaky. Brant Hurter looks like his usual solid self, while Tyler Holton had a good spring and his velocity has been up.

Overall, this looks like a better bullpen than in 2025, with a lot more depth and flexibility. But the Tigers still lack one killer reliever to pair with Vest, particularly as even the best relievers, and Vest has arguably been a top ten reliever in baseball since August of 2024 tend toward up and down seasons. Finnegan might give them that much, and at least adds some swing and miss that the bullpen has lacked. Still, feeling comfortable with a relief group just isn’t something we’re familiar with, and until Vest illustrates that he’s still got lockdown mode engaged and someone else steps up, we’ll be on the edge holding leads late as usual. We’d also be remiss not to give credit to a pretty dangerous Diamondbacks lineup.

So, after six games, there is still plenty to like over last year, and plenty to worry about too. No different than I felt during spring training. The Tigers have their share of strengths in the rotation and young hitters entering their prime, but the free swinging middle of the order power bats and the need for another dominant reliever in the pen could prove their undoing.

With the Emperors season starting this Thursday, Rome has released their Opening Day roster – let’s take a look at how the roster is setup in what should hopefully be a strong season. We’ve already gone over the rosters for both Augusta and Columbus earlier today and here’s a look at the Gwinnett roster from last week as well. Without further ado, let’s get into it:

Starting Pitching

• Cam Caminiti, LHP
• Cedric de Grandpre, RHP
• Cade Kuehler, RHP
• Jeremy Reyes, RHP

Rome boasts a very strong starting rotation with all five in, or near the BP Top 30, headlined by Cam Caminiti – fresh off an amazing 2025 campaign. Following him will be four right handed starters, the hard throwing Cedric de Grandpre, the hard throwing Jeremy Reyes, and Cade Kuehler. There is a lot of velocity in this starting rotation, but also tons of polished breaking pitches with the Caminiti sweeper and the Kuehler slider.

Relief Pitchers

• Trent Buchanan, RHP
• Colin Daniel, RHP
• Riley Frey, LHP
• Isaac Gallegos, RHP
• Owen Hackman, RHP
• Logan Samuels, RHP
• Justin Long, RHP
• David Rodriguez, RHP
• Jacob Kroeger, LHP
• Jacob Shafer, RHP

The relief core has a lot of experience with potentially Trent Buchanan leading the charge. Trent, coming off of a very strong 2025 season, where he had a 2.53 ERA across 28 games and two levels. Isaac Gallegos had an 3.18 ERA across 51 innings last season as well to go with a 8.47 K/9 and 3.35 BB/9 rate. Riley Frey and Jacob Kroeger will be the long lefties in the bullpen, with Riley having made an appearance in Columbus last season, while Jacob Kroeger had a 1.98 ERA across two levels last season. Braves 11th round pick Colin Daniel will be making his organizational debut in Rome as well.

Catchers

• Colin Burgess, RHB
• Mac Guscette, RHB

Rome will add Colin Burgess to a catching room that had Mac Guscette last season.

Infielders

• John Gil, RHB
• Mason Guerra, RHB
• Colby Jones, RHB
• Cody Miller, RHB
• Dixon Williams, LHB
• Will Verdung, RHB

The Rome infield will have some of the highest upside in the organization as top prospects John Gil, Cody Miller, and Dixon Williams will likely have starting roles while Colby Jones, Will Verdung, and Mason Guerra rotate for playing time.

Outfielders

• Logan Braunschweig, LHB
• Owen Carey, LHB
• Isaiah Drake, LHB
• Eric Hartman, LHB
• Dalton McIntyre, LHB
• Jake Steels, RHB

Much like the infield, the outfield is one of the most intriguing position groups in the organization as the potential starting outfield of Eric Hartman – Isaiah Drake – Owen Carey has some of the highest upside amongst all position players. Add 9th round draft pick Logan Braunschweig to the group, along with tools-y Dalton McIntyre and Jake Steels.

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The Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks open a four-game set in the desert in a matchup of two NL teams hitting the ball pretty well lately.

I’m locked in on the total, but which lineup will give their team the edge and pull out the win? My Braves vs. Diamondbacks predictions break it all down and bring you MLB picks for this National League showdown below.

Who will win Braves vs Diamondbacks today: Braves (-120)

Both the Atlanta Braves and the Arizona Diamondbacks come into this game hitting well, so it’ll come down to the pitching to figure out who wins this game.

The Braves hand the ball to Reynaldo Lopez. The right-hander had a bounce-back year in 2024, pitching to a 3.91 expected ERA before injuries cost him most of 2025. He looked good, limiting the Royals to one run on three hits over six innings.

The Diamondbacks counter with Ryne Nelson, who got shelled by the Dodgers in his first start, while Arizona's bullpen has the fourth-worst xERA in baseball.

COVERS INTEL: Ryne Nelson surrendered two home runs in his first start against the Dodgers, and the Braves rank eighth in OPS.

Braves vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Over 9 (-110)

The Diamondbacks responded in a big way to getting swept by the Dodgers by pulling off a sweep of their own against the Tigers.

They plated 17 runs in that series, with Corbin Carroll being the catalyst. He collected five hits in that series, including two home runs.

Meanwhile, the Braves rank eighth in batting average and ninth in wRC+ through the early part of the season and should be able to continue that against Nelson. Current Braves hitters have a .485 expected slugging percentage vs. the Arizona right-hander.

Braves vs Diamondbacks odds

• Moneyline: Atlanta -120 | Arizona +100
• Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+135) | Arizona +1.5 (-160)
• Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9

Braves vs Diamondbacks trend

The Braves have cashed the Over in 24 of their last 41 away games for +7.70 units and a 17% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Diamondbacks.

How to watch Braves vs Diamondbacks and game info

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Hey, what’s up, I’m Cullen, and I’ll be your regular Thursday gameday threader and recapper this season.

I dabbled a bit in Spring Training with the game thread, but this is my first one for a regular season game. And it comes for a game in which the Royals look to sweep the Twins to get to 4-2 on this very new, very young, very promising season.

On the bump for the Royals is Cole Ragans, who’s making his second start of the season. He started the opener in Atlanta and didn’t fare so hot. Of course, as I like to say, You can’t win if you don’t score, and the Royals didn’t bother scoring in that one.

Still, I’m bullish on Ragans. I have to be. The Royals can’t win anything meaningful this year without him performing well.

The Twins turn to Taj Bradley, a pitcher I thought still played for the Rays. He fanned nine in his first start of the season but didn’t last quite five innings. Maybe he’s building up his endurance still?

Let’s get to the lineups.

Lineups for April 2, 2026

I attended the home opener on Monday and witnessed homers by both Isbel and Collins. Maybe it’s because I’m the opposite of tall, but the idea of Isbel becoming a modern-day Jim Wynn, a/k/a The Toy Rocket, has always appealed to me. Alas, I do not see him continuing his 1.000 slugging percentage for the rest of the season.

Right-handed heavy lineup for the Twins as they face Ragans, a southpaw.

Sure, it’s only been five games, but the Twins aren’t in a great spot at 1-4. Only three other teams have just one win, and two of those teams—the Nomadic A’s and Boston Red Sox—are underachieving. 2026 might provide a very ugly for the AL Central cellar between the Twins and White Sox.

Game time—1:10 p.m.

UPDATE: Anne Rogers posted at 12:18 p.m. that Carter Jensen has been pulled from the lineup, no reason yet provided. Here’s the Royals’ new lineup without him:

The Los Angeles Dodgers finished the 2025 season with more days on the injured list than any other team—it hardly came as a surprise, considering the track record of this organization and many of its pitchers. While that illustrates just how often the Dodgers must turn to their outstanding depth, it doesn’t even cover the whole story. Occasionally moving to a six-man rotation—being quite strict about the pitch counts on their starters—the Dodgers are ultraconservative to benefit the most from their hyperaggression in capitalizing on their financial advantages to acquire a depth most teams do not and cannot possess.

Oftentimes, we look for one all-encompassing explanation when tendencies such as this one come together due to several different factors, one of which might be overlooked. Yes. The Dodgers have a lot of what one might refer to as injury-prone starters, but they don’t really handle these players in the same way that the other 29 teams would—Blake Snell this season being the latest and one of the better examples of it.

Snell and even Dave Roberts indicated at various points in the buildup to this season that the Dodgers were going to err on the side of caution with the left-hander. After sort of powering through some shoulder discomfort last spring—perhaps looking to prove himself the same way every player does after signing a big-money, long-term contract—Snell ultimately had to be put on the IL during the season. Although he came back in time for the playoffs, that scare inevitably led to a more cautious approach in 2026.

Snell is one of many talented and high-priced Dodger pitchers whom the organization can be cautious with, as it possesses the depth to withstand their absences over the course of a 162-game season. A different way to think about this situation is to ponder how big a health disaster would be required before your average fan was genuinely concerned about the Dodgers’ chances of making the postseason—something nearly treated as a foregone conclusion ahead of every season, however ludicrous that may seem.

Don’t get this wrong: if they all can follow the lead of Yoshinobu Yamamoto last season and deliver 30+ starts in the regular season and flourish in October, that’s even better. It’s also an unrealistic expectation out of a group with the injury track record of the likes of Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, and company.

It’s impossible to gauge this properly, but there is a very real argument to be made that, individually, any of these pitchers—if they were to play on a more pedestrian team—would find themselves with a larger workload in the regular season or more often powering through potential concerns. Snell’s case is the latest, but even if we go back to Shohei Ohtani’s outlook last season, he could’ve been fully built up to pitch consistently far sooner than he did. However, coming off major elbow surgery in a bit of uncharted waters, the Dodgers only cared about having him at his best and with no restrictions to pitch in the playoffs.

All of this boils down to the Dodgers making the most of what they have. Maybe if the track record of Glasnow and Snell involved fewer concerns, the Dodgers would not have been able to add both of them—certainly not for the price each of them cost. And that’s just to name a couple of the more obvious ones.

It has only been two starts, and neither of them have been dominant, but Cade Cavalli is showing exactly why the Nats are so high on him. Through 9.2 innings, Cavalli has posted a 2.79 ERA with 8 strikeouts and a .229 opponents batting average. He has also shown us the stuff that makes people so excited about him.

While Cavalli’s fastball velocity has been slightly down to start the year, his 95-98 MPH heater still has plenty of juice. It has a bit of a cut-ride shape and does a good job setting the table for his secondary pitches. Against righties, Cavalli also throws more of his sinker. I think he could stand to throw it even more against right-handed hitters. It has nasty movement and high velocity.

Despite having a fastball in the mid to upper 90’s, I think the secondary pitches are the real star of the show here. Cavalli’s power 12/6 curveball has long been his best pitch. He can throw it in the mid-80’s while getting the movement of a slower curve. It is a true hammer pitch where the bottom drops out of it. He can throw the pitch to righties and lefties, but I actually think it plays better against lefties.

That is part of why Cavalli had reverse splits last year. Lefties only hit .221 against him, but righties hammered him at a .381 clip. I do not think the curve is inherently worse to righties, it was more about the rest of his mix. Against lefties, Cavalli could rely on his changeup as a real third pitch and an offering that moved away from left handed hitters. 

He did not really have anything that moves away from righties. The fastball is straight, the curve goes up and down and the sinker comes in on them. That made his mix pretty predictable. To combat that, Cavalli added a sweeper this offseason. Cavalli actually talked about the issues he had against righties during Spring Training.

In a limited sample size, Cavalli has been tougher on righties so far this season. He has issued more walks against them than you would like, but he has only allowed one hit to a righty so far. Cavalli is throwing his 4-seamer, sinker, sweeper and curve at least 16% of the time to righties. Those are four distinct weapons that have different movement patterns. This allows him to stay unpredictable.

Speaking of that sweeper, the actual movement profile of the pitch is interesting. It is almost like a second variation of his curveball. His sweeper has much more drop than the typical sweeper, but still gets that side to side movement. A reason for that could be how he throws it. Cavalli has said he throws it similarly to his curve, he just has a slightly different grip.

Regardless, the pitch is distinct enough to be effective. I also think his usage patterns and maybe even some of his shapes will evolve as he learns more about his new arsenal. We have not seen Cavalli’s A game yet, but he has still shown why he is so highly touted.

He dealt with the Phillies lineup pretty comfortably yesterday. With all of the big names in that lineup, this is no easy task. Cavalli also did not really seem to have his best stuff until the fifth inning. He was surviving in those first four innings, but in the fifth and sixth inning, he was dominating.

I actually think Cavalli could be even more unpredictable with his pitch mix. His changeup and sinker are both pitches I like, but he has not been throwing them a ton this season. The sinker usage is only at 14% and the changeup usage is only at 6%. I think he should use the sinker as his primary fastball to righties and he could mix in his changeup even more to lefties.

In 2025 and early 2026, Cavalli’s changeup has been a whiff machine. He had a 41.8% whiff rate on the pitch last year and it is up to 60% this year. Cavalli’s changeup was one of his best pitches in the minors, but it has been underutilized in the big leagues so far. I also think his sinker plays better against righties than his 4-seam does. Having the sinker moving in, the curve moving downward and the sweeper moving away would be a nasty combo against righties.

Cavalli can do so many different things with the ball, so I think his pitch mix will be constantly evolving. Keeping hitters off balance needs to be a big part of Cavalli’s game. The biggest weakness I think Cavalli has is his command. His strike-throwing is solid, but his command within the zone is spotty at times. He will also have more bad misses than some other pitches.

However, I think Cavalli has the velocity, pitch mix and overall stuff to make up for that. If he can improve that command, especially with two strikes, I think he can take off. Even if Cavalli is what he is right now, that is a solid pitcher. 

It took a long time to see the payoff, but the Nats have what they hoped they would get from Cavalli when they drafted him in the first round. He is a big righty with a power fastball, a pair of nasty breaking balls and a surprisingly good changeup. At 27 years old and finally injury free, Cade Cavalli is finally coming into his own.

Wednesday was a rough day at the park for Francisco Lindor. 

The Mets’ usually fundamentally sound veteran shortstop committed not one, but two costly mental mistakes in what ended as a frustrating walk-off loss to the Cardinals. 

First Lindor forgot how many outs there were, calmly jogging to second for the force and turning to the dugout on what should’ve been a routine inning-ending double play in the first.

Freddy Peralta easily escaped after, but it cost the starter five more pitches. 

Lindor would hurt the Mets a bit more a few innings later, though, as he was picked off first a few pitches before Juan Soto broke a scoreless tie with a solo homer in the sixth. 

New York, of course, ended up losing the game 2-1 in extras. 

Lindor did draw a walk for the fourth consecutive game, but he went hitless on the afternoon, leaving him with just one knock in 10 at-bats during the series in St. Louis. 

Despite the tough day, former Mets shortstop Jose Reyes says fans need to relax about the five-time All-Star. 

Relax everybody… my guy Francisco Lindor gonna be good. Bad days happen — that’s baseball. Could happen to anyone. He’s human just like all of us. Watch how he responds… this gonna be good for him and for the organization 🧡💙

— Jose Reyes (@lamelaza_7) April 2, 2026

Lindor’s first opportunity to respond will come in Thursday’s series opener against the Giants.

The Colorado Rockies have their first day off of the 2026 regular season following their surprise series victory over the defending American League champion Toronto Blue Jays. It took the Rockies until June to secure their first series victory in 2025. Does this portend the Rockies are indeed an improved unit?

With the Rockies traveling back home to Denver for their home opener tomorrow, we can tune into some minor league baseball as the Double-A season begins this week! All High-A and Low-A will kick off their season tomorrow to mark the minor league season as fully started!

Check out the Weekly Pebble Report for a story on Charlie Condon as he nears the precipice of a potential Major League debut this season, and for our prospect report for last week!

All MiLB games today are listed in order of start time. Lineups will be added if/as they become available on team social media feeds.

Triple-A: Reno Aces (3-2) vs Albuquerque Isotopes (1-4)

Despite some excellent pitching from Tanner Gordon, Sean Sullivan, and Gabriel Hughes, the Isotopes have just one win in their young season thus far as the offense has struggled to launch. Gordon will toe the rubber again today while Blaine Crim and Zac Veen continue their rehab assignments in an early afternoon affair against the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Triple-A affiliate.

First Pitch: 12:05 p.m. MDT

TV: MiLB.TV

Radio: MiLB.TV

Lineups:

Double-A: Chesapeake Baysox (0-0) vs Hartford Yard Goats (0-0)

The Double-A season starts today with an Eastern League match-up. The Yard Goats clinched a postseason berth in 2024 for the first time in franchise history, only to miss the dance in 2025. What does this season have in store for them? Right-handed Jake Brooks—obtained from the Miami Marlins in exchange for Bradley Blalock this off-season—will start for the Yard Goats.

First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. MDT

TV: MiLB.TV

Radio: MiLB.TV

Lineups:

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Jonny Farmelo’s professional career has unfortunately been defined by his absence. First battling a torn ACL, Farmelo missed the bulk of his debut season, cooling some of the momentum he’d built after a hot start had him rapidly ascending up prospect rankings. Opening last season late due to an oblique injury, he would again return to the injured list with a stress fracture in his ribs that sidelined him until early August, limiting his season AB total to just over 100. Having notched just 350 PA’s in the minor leagues, Farmelo is still a bit of a mystery at this point, but with the immense upside his tools provide him, he remains within our system top five and is primed to be a “breakout” prospect that’s entering his third minor league season.

Farmelo is in a strange spot right now. A twitchy athlete with a unique swing that’s direct to the ball, Farmelo has the look of a high contact centerfielder that uses his borderline elite speed to make up for a lack of juice, but in reality, it’s kind of the opposite. Farmelo’s power is real, and coupling it with his speed/centerfield skills makes him an unbelievably exciting prospect, but Farmelo saw his contact numbers take a step back last season after his injury-plagued year. It’s natural to see some rust when a player misses considerable amounts of time, and Farmelo having been sidelined for nearly half of his time as a professional only compounds that issue, but the uptick in whiff is certainly something to be cognizant of.

The ideal version of Farmelo has a blend of this power uptick mixed into his “old” offensive approach from his first year as a professional. Farmelo, an excellent base stealer, is capable of being a dynamic threat atop a lineup, but that profile is a bit tougher to justify if he’s running K rates just south of 30%. With his routinely robust walk rates and track record of displaying better K rates in the past, there’s less of a concern Farmelo has turned into a TTO slugger than his numbers might suggest, but it’s something fans should absolutely monitor this season. His first healthy opening day since his debut in 2024, this season will be a massive year for Farmelo, hopefully providing our first full season sample of the kind of player Farmelo actually is.

Thank you for the warm reception from my debut article. I’m sure I’ll have missteps along the way, but I’m aiming to live up to the high standard VEB has set. Expect to see me weekly going forward. I’ll see you in the comments!

This season is the year of reckoning for Jordan Walker. He comes from a seemingly endless line of Cardinals prospects over the years to never live up to the expectations put on them from a “draft and develop franchise.” Let’s rip the bandaid off and mention some names: Carlson, Reyes, Luke Weaver, Delvin Perez, even Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty to a certain extent. The Cardinals lost their way in prospect development in the same way if Walmart turned into a real estate company – you have to nail the stated mission if it’s going to be your stated mission.

This leads me to ask the ultimate existential question about the career of Jordan Walker: on this Easter weekend, is the resurrection of his career that we all want so bad even possible? Is there any historical precedent for becoming a productive hitter after essentially being the worst hitter in Major League Baseball? Or, have Jordan Walker and the Cardinals tag teamed this like Harry and Lloyd from Dumb and Dumber and wrung the head off a career that had so much promise?

Before I get into the historical precedents (kind of sounds like a journey through important Supreme Court cases – honestly it’s approaching that level of importance for the Cardinals), Jordan Walker deserves some praise for the early, early, early, early, (yes it’s early!) returns from this season. After struggling mightily in spring training and being banished to the hitting lab to adjust, Jordan Walker seems to have, well, adjusted. At the time of this writing, Walker is running a cool .294/.400/.538 line, good for a 180 wRC+. I can’t remember the last time he had a five game stretch that was this awesome. Here’s the kicker though, despite a recent rash of strikeouts, Walker is running a 15% K rate with a 15% walk rate. Those are Wetherholtian numbers (wow does that guy look electric!).

Yes it’s early, early, early, early, early (yes I’m still aware), but he has talked about his approach changing and simplifying the mental game. The Cardinals tried to change his launch angle (which did need to be fixed), and like a golf swing that needs work, opened up 2-3 other crisis level issues which combined to make him The Worst Hitter in Baseball (the capitals felt right for that distinction). If he can maintain this performance on a simplified track, perhaps there is hope. We discussed this further on our last episode of Redbird Rundown If you’d like more coverage and audio/visual is your thing. (Apple and Spotify links!)

Now, to tackle the original question of the article. Can we have an Easter resurrection of Jordan Walker’s career? Yes, it’s mostly been a crown of thorns so far, but is there any hope? I went searching for players in their age 21 to 23 seasons with an OPS+ between 60 and 80 and at least 500 PA. The results came back with 118 players – a ton of guys have struggled in their first attempts at Major League Baseball!

Let’s not pull any punches. Jordan Walker is dancing on a knife’s edge. The list is littered with guys that never made it offensively. In fact, from the list of players who met those statistical measures, a vast majority of them never made it. You didn’t need me to tell you that Jordan Walker’s career is on life support, but the historical record helped check him right into the ICU. But, we’re simply looking for what’s possible here, so where’s the resurrection hope? It exists on this list, too.

There are several hall of fame players (and hall of very good players!) populating the early-struggler list: Ron Santo, Carlos Gomez, Carlon Beltran, and Pete Rose among them. But a few specific results really stood out to me if we’re interested in rolling away the stone from the tomb of Jordan Walker’s career.

Mike Schmidt put together a .196/.324/.373 line as a 23 year old with a 30.7% K rate and no power to speak of – we all know how his career turned out. Aaron Judge didn’t even play in the MLB from age 21 to 23, and at age 24 came up for a cup of coffee and struck out 44.7% of the time. Byron Buxton appeared to be a spectacular failure as the number one prospect in baseball and then ran wRC+ lower than Walker in his first two partial season before it came together for him.

I want to make sure and drive home an important point here though: The last two paragraphs were me cherry picking the absolute best case scenarios for the resurrection of Jordan Walker. It’s possible, but it’s not likely. Don’t get me wrong, I’m rooting for him to finally figure it out. With apologies to cleanup hitter Masyn Winn, we could use another power bat right in the middle of the lineup for years to come. The extremely early returns are encouraging thus far in 2026, but the hole that has been dug is quite deep. It turns out though, there is still hope for a resurrection from the historical record.

Let me know what you think in the comments! It was interesting to do this deep dive on Walker. If you’re interested in more thoughts and analysis live during games you can find me on twitter @mksmith86 or tons more in-game analysis and commentary from our podcast twitter @redbirdrundown2. 

Thanks for reading!

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Diamondbacks fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

We’ve now had the chance to see every starting pitcher take the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks – twice, in the case of Zac Gallen. The results have been somewhat mixed. On Opening Day, Gallen was undone by the prototypical “one bad inning,” but rebounded yesterday against Detroit, with six shutout frames. Ryne Nelson and Brandon Pfaadt also caught a severe case of OBI-itis. But Eduardo Rodriguez and, even more of a surprise, Michael Soroka (top) were both excellent. Soroka’s outing was, arguably, the best ever by any starting pitcher making their debut in a D-backs uniform. Did not see that coming.

The team should get Merrill Kelly back shortly, and it’s then going to be an interesting decision as to who gets booted to work long relief out of the bullpen. While Soroka would have been the man in that role, if Kelly was healthy for his planned Opening Day start, his dominant first outing throws that into some doubt. Pfaadt is probably the one on the shortest leash immediately, but we will certainly have another turn around the rotation before anything has to be decided. Kelly could be activated as early as next Wednesday, but that’ll depend on how he gets through his rehab start with Reno on Friday .

Further down the pipe, we will be getting theoretical staff ace, Corbin Burnes back. If he returns to the form he showed before getting injured last year, that will certainly be a significant boost to the rotation. All told, there are a lot of moving parts, and we are still very much in the part of the season where it’s a very small sample size. But who do you think will be the team’s most valuable pitcher this year? I’d probably suggest going with the average of bWAR and fWAR, since they do measure things in slightly different ways. But it’s really up to you, how to define the term. Of course, please explain your choice in the comments.

As Kyle Schwarber began to round the bases on Opening Day, the Rangers TV broadcasters griped that the moonshot that sent him on that short but joyous journey hadn’t quite been earned. A left-handed hitter, they said, can get “cheapies” by sending the ball over Citizens Bank Park’s friendly left-field fence, as Schwarber had. The ball in question, however, was no cheapie: per Statcast, it would’ve been a goner in 25 of 30 parks. To their credit, the broadcasters noticed that statistic as soon as it came through, and corrected themselves on-air. But while they were wrong on that particular homer, the larger point is valid: Citizens Bank Park is a very friendly ballpark for homers, and particularly so for lefties. There is no question that Kyle Schwarber is a legitimate slugger; his power is as genuine as a quarter fresh off the line at the United States Mint. But it is fair to ask: how much has playing in CBP’s affable dimensions aided him?

By Statcast’s Park Factors (looking at 2023-2025), CBP was the fourth most homer-prone park in the bigs, behind only UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium (I’m using the full name less out of respect for the defending champs, and more out of respect for the sponsor, from which I purchased my favorite pair of pants), Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark, and Yankee Stadium. But if we look at left-handed hitters only, no park in MLB is more conducive to four-baggers than CBP. Batters of the sinister sort hit 28% more homers in Philly than they did elsewhere. It stands to reason that Schwarber, being a lefty, would benefit from that. And we can take a look at that via Statcast’s Expected Home Runs by Park metric, which tell us how many homers a player would have expected to have hit (xHR) if all of his batted balls were at a given park.

In 2025, Schwarber would’ve had 58 homers if all of his plate appearances were at home; only putting all of his batted balls in the A’s temporary digs in Sacramento would’ve given him more. In 2024, only Great American Ballpark would’ve allowed him to smash more dingers, and in 2023, no park would’ve been better for him than home, sweet home. So it’s clear that hitting at CBP really does help Schwarber hit more dingers.

There is something a little strange, though. You’d expect putting all of Schwarber’s batted balls in CBP to result in more homers than the actual Schwarber hit, given that no park in baseball is friendlier to lefty batters. But that’s not what we see. Here’s Schwarber’s actual homers (including postseason), vs. what Statcast says he’d have if we lived in a perfect world where every game were played at CBP, and every seventh inning featured a Phanatic Dance:

During his Phillies tenure, Schwarber has had only one season in which he’d have hit more homers if all of his batted balls were in Philly. That’s unusual, given how homer-friendly CBP is. Granted, half of Schwarber’s games really are played at CBP, meaning some of the benefits of putting all of his batted balls there are already baked in to his actual stats. But since all of the parks he plays in on the road are less conducive to lefty homers than CBP, you’d still expect moving all of those road batted balls to CBP to result in more hypothetical homers.

And as an example of this, if you look at some of the Phillies’ other lefties over the same time period, you’ll see that their xHR with all of their batted balls in CBP surpass their actual HR totals. Bryce Harper’s xHR totals in a CBP-only world were higher than his actual HR totals in each of the past four seasons. Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh would’ve had more homers in said world in three of the past four. Why is Schwarber different?

If you looked closely at the table above (and I’m not offended if you didn’t), you may have noticed that the rightmost column is labeled Adjusted xHR. Specifically, Statcast adjusts for environmental effects. Wind, temperature, so on and so forth. Statcast also provides Standard xHR, which does not take environmental effects into account— just the dimensions of the park. And if we look at that…

…we see that, absent the effects of wind and weather, our hypothetical Oops! All CBP! Schwarber would’ve hit more homers than the actual Schwarber did in three of the past four seasons. We know that batters at Citizens Bank Park are particularly likely to lose homers to the wind, so that makes sense. But it can’t entirely explain what we’re seeing here. After all, Harper, Stott, and Marsh are all playing with the same wind, and they still benefited, homer-wise, by putting all of their batted balls in CBP even when adjusting for the impact of the wind. The left-handed hitters that stepped into CBP presumably lost some homers to the wind, but not enough to stop it from being the best park for hitting left-handed four-baggers by Park Factors . There isn’t any immediate reason to think Schwarber would be more impacted by wind than other lefties. So while the wind is clearly taking a few homers from his already lofty totals, it can’t provide the entirety of the explanation we’re looking for.

There’s two things you need for a cheapie homer: a park that offers an easier path to homer-dom to batted balls hit in a particular direction, and a ball that’s borderline enough to benefit from that benevolence. No matter what the park dimensions are, a ball that’s hammered deep into the cheap seats isn’t a cheapie. It’s just a regular homer. You know what Kyle Schwarber does? Hit the ball so damn hard that the dimensions of the stadium don’t seem to matter much. Maybe he’s not getting too many cheapie homers at CBP, actual or expected, because he’s just hitting the ball so hard.

Statcast divides any batted ball that would’ve been a homer in at least one stadium into three categories: Doubters (homers in 1 to 7 parks), Mostly Gone (homers in 8 to 29 parks), and No Doubters (gone in every park, and also fans of Gwen Stefani’s earlier work). In 2025, Schwarber’s No Doubter rate was 51.7%. Contrast with Harper’s, 29.6%, Stott’s 30.8%, or Marsh’s 27.3%. That suggests that part of the reason why that trio benefitted more from CBP’s dimensions than Schwarber over the past four seasons is that Schwarber is smacking the ball so hard that the lefty-friendly wall depth just isn’t as meaningful for him. He’s not putting as many balls in that borderline range where the helping hand of the bandbox-style park makes the difference. Not much in baseball can be explained by a single factor; there are certainly other things going on here as well. Pure variance is probably part of it. After all, the dimensions of the ballpark are still helping him; he’d have fewer homers if he called most other parks home.

We can conclude with the following Phacts about Schwarber:

1. Playing his home games at CBP really does help Schwarber hit more home runs.
2. But the benefit of CBP’s dimensions is somewhat blunted by the park’s strong winds.
3. He hits the ball so hard and so far that the dimensions of the park may not be quite as impactful on his homer totals as they are for other lefties.

Everyone loves a discount. But Kyle won’t be clipping coupons for BOGO blasts anytime soon.

Last week, the Yankees’ minor-league season officially began in Buffalo, where the Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders opened their season with a shutout victory over the Bisons. The RailRiders will be priority viewing all season for those who like to keep up with the minor leagues for multiple reasons.

But there are still intriguing prospects that aren’t quite on the cusp of debuting in the major leagues and are looking to put one foot in front of the other to get noticed and put on the pinstripes in the future. That’s what brings us to Double-A Somerset, entering its sixth season as a Yankees affiliate. Occasionally, you’ll even see some players in Double-A who become polished enough that they spend minimal time at the next level — Cam Schlittler notably only had five starts at Triple-A last year after getting the first bump up from Somerset. The ticket to The Show could be closer than you think.

Some of last year’s biggest names are out the door, whether traded or up in Triple-A, but the headliner remains. Who joins him?

The catching will be done in a split between arguably the organization’s best remaining homegrown backstop and a non-roster invitee. Manuel Palencia was playing in the FCL just 10 months ago, but was aggressively promoted as several midseason trades cleaned out the farm’s catching depth with Rafael Flores Jr., Jesus Rodriguez, and Edgleen Perez all going out the door. Palencia’s bat was predictably poor in 37 combined games in High-A and Double-A, but the 23-year-old gets a clean slate here. Miguel Palma, signed from the Astros’ organization in December, is also not known for his bat, so don’t expect a ton of offense here.

On the infield, the star attraction is the Yankees’ No. 1 prospect, George Lombard Jr., who figures to be the everyday shortstop. Lombard got off to a strong start to 2025 in High-A Hudson Valley, but predictably encountered growing pains when he was promoted in May, enduring arguably the minors’ most challenging jump for prospects to make. There’s a seismic difference between the quality of play in High-A and Double-A. Still, Lombard registered a respectable 111 wRC+ with good plate discipline, but they’d like for him to make more contact and tap into his power. Of course, his most mature trait has been picture-esque: his defense.

The rest of the infield features all-or-nothing thumper Tyler Hardman, Coby Morales, and Owen Cobb. Hardman and Morales have experience at this level, but Cobb is new after just nine games in High-A last season. He was Low-A Tampa’s most consistent hitter for much of 2025, hitting .310 in 40 games. The 24-year-old Stanford graduate will be tested. Also down here is former Giants top prospect Marco Luciano, who should play a few different positions.

There are a few interesting names in the outfield. Fans saw a lot of Kenedy Corona in spring training, a normally light-hitting defensive specialist who was signed out of the Astros’ organization. Jace Avina—once acquired from Milwaukee for Jake Bauers—tore up A-ball with impressive game power, but struggled with consistency. Mexican League MVP Nick Torres will look to restart his MLB journey. Garrett Martin hasn’t quite figured it all out yet, but the former undrafted free agent puts up some startling exit velocity numbers, and we saw as much in spring training.

The rotation is headlined by one of the team’s best pitching prospects in former first-round pick Ben Hess, who will start on Opening Day.

A project arm out of Alabama, the Yankees have cleaned up Hess’ command and turned him into a viable starting pitching prospect, but good upside as a reliever with some filthy secondaries. Due to long-term injuries to Chase Hampton (eyeing a midseason return from Tommy John surgery last year) and Brock Selvidge (who just went under the knife himself), the rotation after that lacks star power but has several reliable arms. Xavier Rivas finished 2025 extremely well in High-A and was promoted. Cade Smith missed much of 2025, but the former sixth-round pick has turned heads when healthy, recently recording a 2.13 ERA in the Arizona Fall League. And 26-year-old undrafted free agent Trent Sellers was a reliable mainstay in last year’s rotation.

The bullpen will feature some A-ball stars and some holdovers from the upper minors last year. Eric Reyzelman was once on the fast track to the majors, but the LSU product couldn’t find the strike zone in Scranton last year, so expect him to move back up if he starts strong. Bailey Dees and Michael Arias also come down from Scranton to join the likes of Will Brian, Chris Kean, Geoffrey Gilbert, Matt Keating, and Hayden Merda. Last year’s best MiLB reliever, Hueston Morrill, is on the shelf to start the year after a sub-1 ERA in 2025.

Pitching injuries limit the potential of this rotation to be as good as some of the ones in the past, but it’s not ridiculous to say we could see the currently injured Hampton and Bryce Cunningham up here with Hess, Smith, and Rivas by the summer. The hitting depth in the system beneath Scranton is pretty shallow, especially after the recent Ryan Weathers trade saw 2024 draft reinforcements Dillon Lewis and Brendan Jones go to Miami. There’s ample reason to get out to Somerset for a game if you’re in the area, particularly at the shortstop position.