SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - JULY 09: Manager Craig Stammen #14 of the San Diego Padres takes the ball from Griffin Canning #17 during a pitching change in the fifth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park on July 09, 2026 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The San Diego Padres are still without a series win this month. The club struggled against Arizona Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly last night, scoring just one run on a Manny Machado homer in the second inning. After that, the club managed just two hits. Griffin Canning pitched well, navigating trouble to give up just two runs. Unfortunately, that was all Arizona would need.
Tonight, the Toronto Blue Jays will come to town to face San Diego. The Padres have considerably less momentum heading into the series, with the Blue Jays having just beat the San Francisco Giants (and almost throwing a no-hitter against them on Wednesday night). Hopefully, San Diego will be able to regain some offensive momentum against Toronto tonight.
Taking the mound
Shane Bieber (TOR) v. JP Sears (SD)
Bieber hasn’t looked great since returning from injury. After surprising many by re-signing with Toronto, Bieber hasn’t helped his free agency case this season. In his first three starts back, the righty’s posted a 9.00 ERA across 13 innings pitched. He’s also posted a ridiculous 2.08 WHIP.
His most recent start against the Seattle Mariners was, by far, his worst. Bieber surrendered seven runs to the Mariners across just four innings pitched. The Padres will look to tag him for that many in the hopes of a series opening win.
Similar to Bieber, Sears has made just three starts this season for San Diego. He’s pitched infinitely better than Bieber, but has still struggled. His high 4.70 ERA is only due to his start against the Chicago Cubs last week. Sears surrendered six runs to the Cubs across just 4 2/3 innings.
Sears rebounded immediately against the Los Angeles Dodgers with five scoreless innings against the rivals. He hasn’t faced Toronto’s lineup very much in the past, which should give him a slight edge over the Jays.
Batter up!
San Diego’s lineup has been resurgent but spotty lately. They’ve scored 29 runs in their last eight games for an average of 3.63 runs per game. Excluding the two games they were shut out, the average bumps up to a much more respectable 4.83 runs per game. The lineup will need to show up against Bieber tonight in order to win the series opener.
Fernando Tatis Jr., RF
Jackson Merrill, CF
Xander Bogaerts, SS
Manny Machado, 3B
Gavin Sheets, LF
Ty France, 1B
Jake Cronenworth, 2B
Miguel Andujar, DH
Luis Campusano, C
Of the Friars, Bogaerts has had the most career success against Bieber. The short owns a .364 batting average and 1.144 OPS against the righty in 11 at-bats. If he can replicate that tonight, it would be a fantastic turnaround to the struggles that Bogaerts has been recently mired in.
Relief corps
After a few tiring weeks, the bullpen has been spared from overuse as of late. That was mostly true last night, with Yuki Matsui, Bradgley Rodriguez, Wandy Peralta and Adrian Morejon covering the final 4 1/3 innings. Each pitched a full frame, with Rodriguez covering 1 1/3 innings for San Diego.
That leaves Jhony Brito, Kyle Hart, Ron Marinaccio and Mason Miller as options for tonight. Brito looked solid in his 2026 debut on Tuesday night but hasn’t been used since. Hart and Marinaccio have been rough lately and will look to turn things around facing the Jays.
With no clear-cut top pick, the pressure is on for White Sox brass to make the right call at noon Saturday. | (Photo by Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
Chicago’s future will be decided this weekend in a conference room in Philadelphia, at approximately 12 p.m. CT. Although I only partially mean it facetiously, that’s how the front office has seen the first pick of the 2026 MLB draft since the Winter Meetings that revealed its lottery win.
For the last seven months, Chicago’s baseball operations, scouting, player development and coaches have debated who should be the face of the franchise by 2030: Roch Cholowsky, Grady Emerson or Vahn Lackey. National and local scouting reports, podcasts, and analysts have done their fair share of speculation, but let’s shift the conversation and read between the lines and assess what these picks say about the organization’s belief in itself.
Scouting department reflection If the pick is Cholowsky: Seeing would be believing that Cholowsky’s last three college years were the real deal. The 21 year-old slugger peaked last year with a .353/.480/.710 and 23 HRs and 74 RBIs, regressing only slightly in his 2026 campaign. Picking the UCLA Bruin signals that the scouting department believes these numbers aren’t flukes, and that GM Chris Getz has full trust in the scouts’ eyes.
Emerson: If Getz’s confidence is a 10 out of 10 for Cholowsky, it would be a 12/10 for Emerson in the scouting department. Taking a high-schooler is always riskier than a college player, but banking on a player who slashed .398/.515/.648, had 13 home runs and a 19.7% walk rate in 223 games in the Perfect Game Tournament, one of the most elite travel ball programs in the country, would indicate that the scouts believe Emerson isn’t even close to his ceiling, and that Getz believes so, too.
Lackey: A catcher hasn’t been taken with the first pick of the MLB draft since Adley Rutschman in 2019. For Lackey to be in the discussion means the scouts see something truly special in him, and so does Getz. His rapid acceleration from slashing .214/.330/.381 in his freshman year at Georgia Tech to .397/.519/.772 two years later is forgivable because his glove and arm steal scouts’ eyes. This is a bold pick, but the upside and trust are there.
Development department reflection If the pick is Cholowsky: Chicago is relying on Cholowsky to come in mostly-baked, because they’re more confident in their talent development in fine-tuning a prospect than early pipeline stages. Only two of the Sox’s last 11 first-round picks (since 2016) came from high school. Chicago is relying on Cholowsky’s college maturation, noted by a 2.5% strikeout rate drop and 2% walk rate increase from freshman to junior year, to compensate for its hit-or-miss development skills, primarily with position players.
Emerson: Confidence is sky-high with player development. Paul Janish is the new sheriff in town, and he’s ready to turn the tables on the Sox’s poor PD track record. This doesn’t mean that Emerson doesn’t lay plenty of groundwork. His natural, powerful swing, plus arm and decent speed make him a dream pick in many eyes. But he’s only 18 years old, even if he’s more developed than many college players.
Lackey: Like Cholowsky, Lackey is close to a finished product. Having Walker McKinven, former Brewers catching and strategy and run prevention coach, as the bench coach instills a lot of confidence in the Sox’s ability to translate Lackey’s 55-grade fielding and 50-grade arm into a reliable, daily catcher. Going with a guy whose profile isn’t far off from Cholowsky’s alludes to a high degree of confidence in the coaching staff’s ability to raise Lackey’s ceiling and floor.
Baseball operations reflection If the pick is Cholowsky: Although a crowded infield seems like a problem, the Sox embrace it because they know Will Venable can put together a decent lineup. Getz’s trust and confidence in Venable has grown exponentially this year, even if the dramatic home and road splits call his management into question. If Venable is finding a way to win without the first overall draft pick in his arsenal, let’s see what he does when he has the most highly-anticipated shortstop Troy Tulowitzki.
Emerson: Adding Montgomery as the No. 22 overall pick in the 2021 draft was the tip of the high school prospect iceberg. Seeing Montgomery’s transformation from a struggling Triple-A hitter riddled with injuries to a cumulative 5.3 WAR player in essentially a year’s worth of games was a sign that the research, player development and scouting departments figured out the right recipe for above-average talent at a cost-effective price. Now, it’s time to rinse and repeat the formula. It’s time to go back to drafting players with 50-grade fielding and speed and smooth lefty swings.
Lackey: The Sox aren’t happy with their backstops of today or tomorrow, and Lackey could earn the starting job quickly. There’s little faith that Kyle Teel or Edgar Quero, or anyone else in the minors, can be every pitcher’s favorite catcher and provide elite defense. Making the unorthodox choice to snag a catcher with the top pick in the draft also hints at the front office’s preference for a slow-burn player who can provide more defensive value in the long run at a lower price point than a flashy, versatile shortstop.
ARLINGTON, TEXAS - JULY 9: Ezequiel Duran #20 of the Texas Rangers celebrates after hitting a two-run home run against the Los Angeles Angels during the third inning at Globe Life Field on July 9, 2026 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Texas Rangers lineup for July 10, 2026 against the Houston Astros: starting pitchers are Cal Quantrill for the Rangers and Hunter Brown for the Astros.
It is the final series prior to the All Star Break. Texas has three at home against Houston. Silver Boot excitement!
The lineup:
Pederson — DH
Langford — LF
Jung — 3B
Nimmo — RF
Burger — 1B
Duran — SS
Carter — CF
Lopez — 2B
Higashioka — C
7:05 p.m. Central start time. Rangers are +117 underdogs.
SPLITTING ‘EM UP: By winning two of three at Baltimore, the Cubs evened their record in series for the season: 14 won, 14 lost and two split. They are 6-1-1 in their last eight. Last year, through 30 series, they were 18-9-3. They finished 31-19-3. They were 55-38 through 93 games a year ago. Today, they are 52-41. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
ONE-RUN GAMES: Yesterday’s loss was the Cubs’ first by one run in 27 games, since a 2-1 loss at home against the Giants on June 7. Between the losses, the Cubs had gone 18-8, including four wins by one run. For the season, they are 15-10 in one-run games. They finished at 25-19 last season, their first with a winning record since they were 26-25 in 2018. From 2019-24, they were a combined 123-142. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
OUTHITTING THE OPPONENT: The Cubs lost yesterday despite outhitting the Orioles, 9-3. They had won all 14 previous games in which they had made at least six more hits than they gave up. They are 39-5 when they outhit opponents, 4-2 when they have the same number of hits and 9-34 when they have been outhit, including their 9-7 win on Wednesday, in which they made eight hits and gave up 14. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
TODAY IN CUBS HISTORY: The Cubs end a five-game losing streak and a 20-game stretch in which they went 5-15 by defeating the Pirates 6-5 at PNC Park. Anthony Rizzo went 4-for-5 and Albert Almora Jr. homered in the victory. It happened 10 years ago today, Sunday, July 10, 2016.
Shōta Imanaga, last five starts: 3.00 ERA, 1.148 WHIP, 26 strikeouts in 27 innings, four home runs allowed.
That’s… pretty good!
On May 7 at Wrigley Field, Imanaga held the Reds to one run in six innings and struck out 10. That’d play tonight. The last time he pitched in Cincinnati was Sept. 19, 2025 and he allowed three home runs in five innings. But, that was during a second half in which Imanaga was likely not fully recovered from his hamstring injury. The previous year, June 9, 2024, Imanaga threw 6.2 innings and allowed two runs and only one home run.
Hopefully we get the 2024 version tonight.
Hunter Greene just returned from an injury that kept him out most of this year. He had bone chips removed from his right elbow. That’s never good for a pitcher.
His only start since returning was July 4 at GABP against the Orioles, and they lit him up for seven hits, four walks and eight runs in 3.2 innings. He threw 89 pitches and did top out at 99 miles per hour, but… maybe he isn’t quite ready yet?
Last year, Sept. 18, 2025, Greene threw a one-hit complete game shutout against the Cubs. Somehow I’m thinking he’s not quite that guy again… yet.
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The 2026 game discussion procedure has been changed, so please take note.
You’ll find the game preview, like this one, posted separately on the front page two hours before game time (90 minutes for some early day games following night games).
At the same time, a StoryStream containing the preview will also post on the front page, titled “Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of week/date) game threads.” It will contain every post related to that particular game.
The Live! (formerly “First Pitch”) thread will still post at five minutes to game time. It will also post to the front page. That will be the only live game discussion thread. After the game, the recap and Heroes and Goats will also live on the front page as separate posts.
You will also be able to find the preview, Live! thread, recap and Heroes and Goats in this section link. The StoryStream for each game can also be found in that section.
PHOENIX, AZ - FEBRUARY 15: Nick Krall, General Manager of the Cincinnati Reds, speaks to the media during the Spring Training Cactus League Media Day at Arizona Biltmore on Wednesday, February 15, 2023 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The 2026 Major League Baseball Draft begins in earnest tomorrow, July 11th, at 1:00 PM ET. And because everything must be a spectacle under commissioner Rob Manfred, it’s going to be a televised extravaganza across two days.
Rounds 1-4 will be broadcast live on NBC (and streamed on Peacock) on Saturday from 1:00 PM ET through 2:30 PM ET, which means you’ll be able to watch the Cincinnati Reds make picks at #18 in Round 1, #58 in Round 2, #70 in Competitive Balance Round B (which follows Round 2), pick #94 in Round 3, and pick #122 in Round 4 all on Saturday afternoon.
Sunday will see coverage resumed by MLB.com, MLB.tv, and MLB+ beginning at 11:30 PM ET. Rounds 5-20 will all take place on Sunday afternoon and evening, at which case the talking heads can begin to yap about which teams had the best overall draft even though every single player selected will still be a year (or, in most every case, years) away from actually having a shot to contribute at the big league level.
Because the Reds unexpectedly made a playoff appearance last year, albeit briefly, they don’t pick until 18th overall this year. Between that, having zero Compensation Picks from losing a free agent to a big enough contract elsewhere, and landing a Competitive Balance Round B pick (instead of Competitive Balance Round A after Round 1), their overall draft bonus pool of $10,758,500 ranks as just the 17th highest in the league this year. How that impacts their strategy of drafting high school talent vs. college talent remains to be seen, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they swing big with their first selection and then backfill in rounds 7-10 by drafting college seniors who’ll only command minimum bonuses to sign.
PITTSBURGH, PA - JULY 09: Mike Yastrzemski #18 of the Atlanta Braves hits a grand slam home run in the ninth inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on July 9, 2026 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Braves open up a set in St. Louis on Friday night, and have moved Mike Yastrzemski to sixth on the heels of his grand slam in Thursday’s win over the Pirates:
Yastrzemski started out hitting fifth, but quickly dropped down to the bottom of the lineup amid struggles in April. He last hit as high as sixth back on May 4. It hasn’t been a good year for him overall, as he posted sub-.300 wOBAs and xwOBAs in both April and June. He hit okay in May (.338 xwOBA) and got very fortunate (.414 wOBA), but slumped with the rest of the team the following month. That said, he’s been on a heater in July (.409 wOBA, .442 xwOBA), so him moving up in the lineup amid the ongoing struggles of Austin Riley and Dominic Smith makes sense given the way the Braves shuffle things. As a result, this is a novel lineup, the Braves’ 76th in 93 games.
The Cardinals haven’t tweeted out their lineup, with their press folks probably preparing to cover the rumored JJ Wetherholt extension.
The now-flush-with-cash Wetherholt remains in the leadoff spot — the rest of these names are familiar if you watched any of the prior series between these two teams in Atlanta. That said, it’s also a new lineup for St. Louis, who actually doesn’t shuffle things around that much (62nd in 93 games), with a bunch of righties stacked at the bottom against Chris Sale.
The Braves’ lineup has only a handful of collective PAs against Leahy, though everyone but Michael Harris II and Jim Jarvis have faced him at least once. It’s a funny collective .201 wOBA and .518 xwOBA in 15 total PAs, with that disparity driven by both Yastrzemski and Riley once crushing a ball off him that went for an out instead of an extra-base hit or whatever.
Among the entire St. Louis lineup, the only player to have ever faced Chris Sale before is Nelson Velazquez, who had a weak flyout and a walk against him back in 2023. Kinda weird.
Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani will miss next week’s All-Star Game in Philadelphia because of continued irritation in his left knee.
The Dodgers added that Ohtani would not make his scheduled start on the mound against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday night, but would continue his role as the team’s designated hitter throughout the weekend.
The team says that after the series against the D-backs ends on Sunday, Ohtani will have some “interventions” done on his knee to get his ready for the second half of the season, which will cause him to miss the All-Star Game.
The four-time Most Valuable Player has once again been one of the best players in the big leagues this season and stands alone as the game’s premier two-way player.
Ohtani is batting .290 with 20 homers and 56 RBIs and is 8-2 on the mound with a 1.79 ERA and 95 strikeouts in 85 2/3 innings.
Ohtani’s absence will be a blow for baseball’s midsummer showcase at Citizens Bank Park. The Japanese star — who turned 32 years old earlier this week — is among the game’s most popular players and led MLB in jersey sales last year.
He hit his 300th career homer on Tuesday night, a leadoff shot against Colorado Rockies pitcher Michael Lorenzen that made him the first Japanese-born player in the majors to reach the milestone.
Dodgers two-way player Shohei Ohtani throws a mock pitch on the mound after the Dodgers beat the Colorado Rockies Wednesday. Ohtani was scratched from his scheduled start on Friday. (Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
Two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani is done with pitching for the unofficial first half of the season.
He will neither take the mound Friday against the Diamondbacks nor participate in the All-Star Game next week, the Dodgers announced.
Ohtani will still serve as the designated hitter through the weekend series, the team said. But the irritation in his left knee, which is aggravated by pitching, has not resolved. So, over the All-Star Break, he will undergo “some interventions,” preventing him from traveling to Philadelphia for the All-Star Game.
Those interventions will include draining his left knee, and likely an injection, according to a person with knowledge of the situation who was not authorized to speak publicly. Because the issue lingered, the All-Star break presented an opportunity to address it before the second half. This knee injury is not believed to necessarily be connected to the bipartite patella condition that Ohtani addressed with surgery in 2019.
The Athletic was the first to report the details of the planned interventions.
Ohtani, who entered Friday with a .939 OPS, the third-best mark among qualified NL hitters, and a 1.79 ERA, the second-best mark among NL pitchers with 50-plus innings pitched, has been dealing with irritation in his knee for roughly a month.
He exited the June 11 game against the Pittsburgh Pirates with inflammation in his left knee and sat out the next day. But he’s played through the issue since. Friday will mark the first time Ohtani has missed a pitching start this season for the knee injury.
Ohtani said then that he suspected issues with his pitching mechanics were to blame for the discomfort in his knee. He did not say whether he believed his previous kneecap condition was a factor.
Though this is the first time Ohtani has skipped a pitching start, the Dodgers did push back his last start on the mound by two days. Originally scheduled to pitch in Sacramento on July 1, the Dodgers cited rest for the two-way player in the midst of 13 straight days on the team’s schedule without an off day.
Ohtani then held the Padres to three runs in six innings on July 3, throwing 110 pitches. In his next at-bat, he felt tightness in his right biceps, throwing his next start into question.
His biceps ailment, however, quickly resolved with a day off. Manager Dave Roberts said it didn’t bother Ohtani throwing over the next week.
Still, with the change in rotation schedule, and Ohtani back to full-time two-way duties for the first time since 2023, he wasn’t expected to pitch in the All-Star Game or participate in the home run derby even before Friday’s news.
His new plans to address the irritation in his knee wiped out the couple All-Star at-bats he was penciled in for as the starting designated hitter for the National League squad. Ohtani claimed his sixth consecutive All-Star selection with the most Phase 1 fan votes of any player.
Jun 30, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; San Francisco Giants shortstop Casey Schmitt against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
We may never find out what Casey Schmitt thinks about his aversion to walks. Is it a philosophical thing? Instinct? Last night, he finally drew a walk for the first time since May 24th. In his post-game interview with NBC Sports Bay Area, there was an opportunity for a question about his approach to hitting that could’ve addressed the walk situation in a positive way, but instead, the broadcast went in a different direction:
KYLEN HILLS: Casey, gotta ask about a unique stat that you probably haven’t heard yet, but, you’ve hit seven first inning home runs, which is the most of any Giant in the last 50 years through this point in the season not named Barry Bonds. What is it about the first inning? Can you give us any insight?
CASEY SCHMITT: You know, honestly, I thought this was gonna go a different way. I thought you were gonna say the at bats until I got a walk again [laughs]
KYLEN HILLS: [laughs] Come on. We wouldn’t do that to you. We’ve got your back.
CASEY SCHMITT: Yeah, I didn’t know that. That’s pretty cool. That’s a cool thing to know. But, uh, yeah, I mean, I’m just trying to get on base. I’m not trying to swing for the fences or anything. I’m trying to stay within myself every single at bat.
A wonderful moment that tells us everything and nothing at the same time. What does Casey Schmitt think about drawing a walk? Or, at the very least, why does he try to avoid them? I have some theories:
His favorite TV show is Hacks
Sure, the title could be a reference to hacking at pitches, but the spirit of the show is being your unapologetic self no matter what the world throws your way. A comedy about two women from different generations trying to understand each other just enough to get what they want. Maybe Schmitt really likes Jean Smart or her chemistry with co-lead Hannah Einbinder. But the message of getting what you want by going after it, well, yeah, that would certainly diminish the value of a walk in the eyes of a hitter.
Threats
At the beginning of Spring Training, Buster Posey brought into the clubhouse those items or people most important to the players. Casey was all, “Wait, what’s my dad doing here?” before Buster calmly explained that he was only going to allot a certain number of walks this season and that players who go over their allotments would be forced to watch something terrible happen to someone they love.
Instinct
When Casey Schmitt sees a baseball coming right at him, his internal monologue sounds like comedian Tim Robinson’s screaming voice and all he can think is “F**K, F**K, F**K — A BASEBALL’S COMING AT ME!“ And later he explains, ”It was coming right at me — like, RIGHT at me — 110, 120 miles per hour. It could’ve taken my head clean off.“
Hunter Mense
Okay, seriously, it’s got to be the approach the team imported from Canada’s Toronto Blue Jays in the form of the World Series team’s assistant hitting coach. Mense has brought a swing-first approach to the roster, it seems and it’s clear that it’s working. Since May 1st, the Giants are fourth in wRC+ (110) and fifth in batting average (.259). What’s interesting to note about him is that he’s a huge advocate of swing decisions, an obsession over which got the last President of Baseball Operations fired from the Giants. So, has he instilled something in Schmitt or given him a permission structure for giving into his baser swing instincts?
I guess we’ll never know! The team-owned media has his back! Walks are taboo? We can’t talk about them? Yeah, I guess that home run stat is pretty cool because being mentioned in the same breath as Barry Bonds is extraordinarily notable…
But, bro. Bros…
As Steven mentioned in his recap, “Schmitt worked a walk for the first time since May 24th — the longest span by a Giants player since Hal Lanier in 1964.” And, if you tweak that search to be any Giant of the Oracle Park era, you find that in the Oracle Park era, Schmitt’s 169 PA walk-less streak is second only to pinch hitter extraordinaire Shawon Dunston’s 246 PA streak (105 games!) that stretched from May 2001 to July 2002.
So, on the one hand, Schmitt can hang with a Barry Bonds stat. On the other hand, he’s in the same group as career .529 OPS Hal Lanier and career .712 OPS Shawon Dunston. And these players of recent vintage:
But then you see Jung Hoo Lee on this list with Pablo Sandoval, Hunter Pence and even Marquis Grissom, and suddenly the lack of walks doesn’t feel quite so dire. Even Donovan Solano. I would not deprive a Giants fan of their Donnie Barrels love.
The career walk rates of everybody I just mentioned: 6.4%, 7.1%, 7.4%, 6.2%, 6.2%, and all of them with sub-20% strikeout rates (some greatly under that). Schmitt’s career rate of 4.7% and 22.1% strikeout rate check in as higher than this group, but this season, he’s at 2.2 BB% and 19.3 K%.
The reason why it’s worth pointing out is that this simply isn’t sustainable. The reason why walks matter is because it increases the rate by which a batter does not make an out. The lower the “out” rate, the higher the rate of runs scored. Yes, hits are more valuable, but treating on base as zero sum is foolish. The value of not making an out is greater than making an out, after all.
Schmitt has drawn 8 walks in 357 plate appearances. Let’s just say he gets to 600 plate appearances and ups the walk rate a bit to 2.5%; so, 15 walks to end the season. According to Baseball Reference, that’s only happened 27 times in the history of Major League Baseball (unless I’m entering the filtering options wrong).
The most interesting part is that the most recent 10 range from 1966-2017, but between the most recent 10 and the remaining 17, there’s a 31-year gap. Anyway, if Schmitt is able to pull this off, he’ll join these players:
It’s an interesting group. Alcides Escobar was 30 and would play just 3 more seasons. Tim Anderson was at the beginning of his career, and would have a great run after his 606 PA & 13-walk season from 2018-2022 without drawing many walks (.297/.329/.455 — 4.0 BB%, 21.5 K%), but he’d play just 3 more seasons after this run (.232/.269/.270 in 855 PA). Ben Revere played just 3 more seasons, too. Deivi Cruz played five more, but this was his last good season (.264/.293/.384, 3.5 BB%, 9.7 K%). So, let’s hope that this is more Tim Anderson than any other player worth comparing him to on this list.
It’s really tough to compare eras, too, but except for 2013-2015, the league walk rate since 2000 has been consistently around 8.5%. This season, it’s 9%. If you step back to last century and look at 1966-1990, it’s still around 8.5%, with the exception of a 3-year run when it was about 7.7%. So, historically, Schmitt is an outlier, and not in a way that typically signals long-term success.
But we have other measures, too. He’s making contact as frequently as Mike Trout and Junior Caminero (79.7%), for instance. It helps that he’s swinging more than average (54.6% — 12th-most in MLB), but he’s also swinging out of the strike zone more than average (39.9% — 13th-worst in MLB, 11th percentile), which isn’t great and evidence that he’s still probably guessing or still trying to do something at the plate rather than “stay within himself.” Still, he’s not swinging and missing a lot (11.1% — between James Wood at 11% and Ohtani at 11.2%) and he’s seen the fourth-most rate of pitches (44.4%) in the strike zone compared to any other hitter in the sport.
The batted ball results are undeniable…
So, I’d say he’s confident that he can get to a lot of pitches right now and confident he can do damage — because he is — but maybe over time he’ll start recognizing which pitches are actually worth the swing.
In his minor league and college careers, he walked around 8.5% of the time, which would be the league average if he could bring that sort of discipline to the major leagues. It’s entirely possible this season is motivated by some tricky psychologically: he knew he needed to hit to stick and he’s done exactly that. Once he settles into a position, will that consistency allow him to give himself the power to lay off some pitches?
On the other hand… if it’s working, why not keep doing it? The theory of why I’m engaging in any concern here is simply that plate discipline and swing decisions have been historical drivers of future success and if Schmitt will be sticking around for a while, I think I’d like to have some sense that he might be one of the players who makes the team better in the future. But for now, all of this is working for him, so, I guess I need to sit back and appreciate this breakout season.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JUNE 29: Aaron Boone #17 of the New York Yankees walks back to the dugout during the fourth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Yankee Stadium on June 29, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Adam Hunger/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Good afternoon everyone, it’s time to dive back into the mailbag and answer some of your questions. Remember to send in your questions for our weekly call by e-mail to pinstripealleyblog [at] gmail [dot] com.
Long Time, First Time asks: As his first extended stint in the show comes to a close, what are your impressions of Spencer Jones?
That there’s a lot of work left to be done before he’s a regular in the starting lineup. The obvious worry with Jones was that he carries a high strikeout rate with him from the minors and that was certainly exacerbated in the majors, striking out a whopping 41.5 percent of the time, but despite that he managed to find some moments to contribute. A .687 OPS isn’t going to wow anybody but it was far from the worst production the Yankees were getting during his stay with the team, and his playing time was rather inconsistent as the team did not give him starts against lefties which took him out of nearly the entire Boston series among other stretches. His defense in the outfield was mostly fine, definitely better than his counterpart in Domínguez and significantly better than running José Caballero out there, but between the two options the team sees a better chance for improvement down the line with Jones getting regular reps in Triple-A and will ride with Domínguez in right field for now. Jones didn’t do enough in his time up for me to argue passionately against that assessment, but we’ll see whether Jones can muster up a couple hot weeks mashing at Scranton to push the issue.
Cisforcookie asks:Let’s say that the Snakes are six games out of the WC at the break (3.5 or so right now and a bunch of teams right ahead of them). What would it take to get them to part with Moreno and his 2.3 years left? Given that Judge is not getting any younger, whatever the ask (apart from Cam) shouldn’t NY pay it?
I don’t know if I’m on board with going all-in for Gabriel Moreno, at least not yet. The team should certainly make a swing for an upgrade at catcher, as despite his homer yesterday I have little faith in Austin Wells’ bat the rest of this season and the options below him are even less appealing. But the future of the position doesn’t have to get solved here and now so much as the position needs to be covered going into the stretch run and the postseason. So if it’s more feasible for the Yankees to trade for the short-term rental in Minnesota’s Ryan Jeffers and swing other deals to improve the roster overall rather than put their eggs in the Moreno basket, I would prefer to do that. Jeffers in just 37 games this season has produced 1.7 fWAR on the back of a tremendous 165 wRC+, and while he doesn’t have a season that’s reached the peak of his offensive prowess like this one he has enough of a history that I can believe he’ll hold up. Moreno has garnered 2.1 fWAR in 66 games and has been consistently an above-average hitter while also playing his best ball this year with a 124 wRC+.
If the market develops and there’s no other significant move the Yankees can make alongside getting a catcher, then I think Moreno makes sense. He would be costly to acquire, and I won’t speculate on a specific package as there’s no current news about Arizona even considering moving him even if they fall out of the race in the NL Wild Card, but if he’s the big piece they can get then you go for it. I’ve argued in the past that Brian Cashman’s playing for longevity has cost him opportunities to strike for more ideal acquisitions, and now that the core is pushing towards the latter stages of their careers with no ring in hand yet the pressure is on to do something a bit more desperate. We’ll have to see if he’s really feeling that pressure, or if Hal Steinbrenner is content with more of the status quo.
Hankflorida asks:Since Boone has to dance with who he brought, he is limited to what he can do, and Cashman may not have the cards to greatly improve this team; my question is what do you think that Boone can do with shaking up this lineup while he waits for Judge to come back and what are his choices with his starting and relief pitchers? Is Boone just limited to whatever will be will be and has to just continue to follow his analytics and wait and see with hope that things turn around?
There are moments you could argue that Aaron Boone has let things play out with a lack of urgency, or that his team’s general lazy defensive over the years (this one included) is a reflection on him and his staff, but by and large I don’t have a ton of criticism to levy on Boone right now. The injuries that piled onto the lineup were significant, and without their biggest boppers in the mix the rest of the team suffered as a result. As Bradford Willaim Davis put it the other day, at a certain point the Yankees simply have to play better. A full third of the offense can’t be playing like they’re overwhelmed minor leaguers on a regular basis and expect to compete, and thankfully they broke out of their reverie for a bit with this recent Rays series dropping five runs in the opener for just the second time in nearly three weeks and then ending it on a 12-run blowout. Will that carry on? They have one more series before the All-Star break to prove it and then get some much-needed rest, but with Trent Grisham back in the fold and Ben Rice heating back up the floor at least raises to a more competent team than we’ve seen during their week-long losing streak.
The Mets have once again made a bunch of roster moves, as the team has called up Tobias Myers and Zack Short, placed Mark Vientos on the injured list with a right hand fracture, and designated Dan Hammer for assignment.
Myers was just optioned to the minors following his latest appearance with the Mets, but thanks to the injury that Vientos suffered, the Mets can call him back up much sooner than they would’ve been able to without someone hitting the injured list. After starting the season pretty well, Myers has struggled mightily since the Mets started sending him to Syracuse and bringing him back, and he now has a 6.14 ERA and a 4.86 FIP at the major league level this season.
Short, an infielder who had a very brief stint with the Mets in 2024 and and even briefer one earlier this season, gives the team a capable defender at shortstop. He’s hit just .200/.287/.275 in Triple-A this season across time with the affiliates of multiple organizations.
Vientos has been one of the worst regular players in baseball this year, as he’s been worth -1.1 fWAR, the third-worst mark in baseball among players who’ve made at least 100 plate appearances this year. On top of his shoddy defense, he’s hit just .211/.256/.388 with 11 home runs and a 77 wRC+.
Hammer was just the latest in an ever-rotating group of pitchers to get churned by the Mets’ front office. He was called up yesterday, having spent his season up to that point with Double-A Binghamton and Triple-A Syracuse. Should he clear waivers, he figures to return to Syracuse.
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - JULY 04: Tommy Nance #45 of the Toronto Blue Jays pitches against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on July 04, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Olivia Vanni/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Blue Jays have traded right handed reliever Tommy Nance to the Minnesota Twins in exchange for A+ catcher Ryan Sprock:
Nance has been with the organization for two years, after being acquired from the Padres in the middle of the 2024 season. He filled innings capably down the stretch in that lost season, and was a key part of the bullpen last year when he pitched 31.2 innings with a 1.99 ERA. This season he’s been more solid, posting a 3.82 ERA and striking out 34 against 13 walks in 33.0 innings.
Sprock was an 8th round pick out of Elon University last season. He was a two way player in college, splitting his junior season between third base and the bullpen. Naturally the Twins drafted him as a catcher, a position he hadn’t played in college. He seems to have taken to it, though, with some positive reviews on his early glove work. Fangraphs believes he could get to average there. Offensively, he’s shown a strong eye and excellent contact rate so far as a pro, with 64 walks to 52 strikeouts over 374 PA. He’s only managed 7 home runs in that time, but 21 total extra base hits shows that there’s a little pop there.
In terms of what this means for the Blue Jays, I wouldn’t take it to be all that much. Nance is 35 and missed time with a forearm issue this season. He’s a decent reliever, but not one any team is likely to have long term plans for. He’s also already been DFA’d and brought back onto the roster once this year, and Louis Varland, Tyler Rogers, Jeff Hoffman and Braydon Fisher are ahead of him on the right handed relief depth chart, with Spencer Miles possibly entering that mix if/when the rotation gets healthy. Sprock, meanwhile, is extremely the Jays’ kind of guy, a plus contact hitter with a plan at the plate who hit with wood bats in the Northwoods League as an amateur. My interpretation is that they were offered a guy they like for a pitcher who was somewhat on the roster bubble anyway and took it. I don’t see this as any meaningful move towards being sellers at the deadline. With three weeks to go and (with respect to the Rays recent hot streak) a soft schedule for the rest of July, 2.5 games out of a wildcard, I can’t seem them having made a buy/sell decision yet.
On the Twins’ side, Nance is probably instantly the third or fourth best guy in an awful bullpen with a league-worst 5.28 ERA. They have some offence and a Cy Young candidate in Joe Ryan, and they’re two games out of a very bad AL Central. Nance fills a need and could be a small but meaningful part of trying to win a very tight division.
Best of luck to Tommy in that endeavour, and welcome to the organization Ryan.
Update:
MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson confirms that international bonus pool space is going to Minnesota in the deal, although how much does not seem to have been publicly confirmed yet.
Update 2:
Ben Nicholson-Smith reporting it’s $250,000 in bonus pool money. That’s a meaningful amount, which as Ben says shows that the Jays were motivated to acquire Sprock, but doesn’t hugely change the shape of the overall deal.
PHILADELPHIA – Shohei Ohtani, baseball’s biggest star, will not participate in the All-Star Game after being scratched Friday, July 10, from his scheduled start on the mound with an inflamed knee.
Ohtani will still be the Los Angeles Dodgers’ designated hitter against the Arizona Diamondbacks this weekend, but will not travel to Philadelphia to participate in the All-Star Game or festivities. He was scheduled to be the National League’s starting DH.
It leaves the game without the defending MVPs and leading vote-getters in New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge and Ohtani. The St. Louis Cardinals' Iván Herrera will replace Ohtani on the NL roster.
Ohtani, the four-time MVP, was scheduled to pitch Friday night against the Diamondbacks but was scratched in the afternoon with an inflamed left knee. The news comes just three days after Ohtani hit his 300th career homer in the fewest games in baseball history.
Shohei Ohtani will not make his scheduled start on the mound this evening against the D-backs due to continued irritation in his left knee. He will serve as the designated hitter the rest of the weekend, but following the series against the D-backs he will have some interventions…
It’s a huge blow to the All-Star Game, and a setback for Ohtani’s Cy Young hopes. It’s unknown how long he will be sidelined as a pitcher.
Ohtani, who turned 32 last week, is certainly in the running for his first Cy Young award. He is 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA this season with 95 strikeouts in 85.2 innings. And he’s still considered the finest hitter in the National League, hitting .290 with 20 homers, 56 RBI and a .939 OPS.
Ohtani was not expected to pitch in the All-Star Game, with the starting nod expected to go to Philadelphia Phillies ace Cristopher Sanchez, but he was scheduled to be the starting DH. That now will fall to Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber, who leads baseball with 32 homers.
Ohtani also rejected an invitation to be in the Home Run Derby, but MLB officials are hopeful that Chicago White Sox star Muneteka Murakami, who hit 20 homers before missing the last 35 games on the injured list, will be the final participant in the derby. He was activated on Friday.
The St. Louis Cardinals and JJ Wetherholt have agreed to an eight-year, $112.5 million extension that buys out the rookie second baseman’s first several years of free agency, a person familiar with the deal told The Associated Press.
The person spoke on condition of anonymity because the club had not announced the extension.
The Cardinals picked Wetherholt seventh overall out of West Virginia two years ago in the first-year player draft, and he rocketed through their farm system. The 23-year-old made his major league debut on opening day and is hitting .267 with 13 homers and 36 RBIs and nine stolen bases.
The advanced metrics also have graded Wetherholt as one of the best defensive second basemen in baseball this season.
The emergence of Wetherholt in the middle of the St. Louis infield is a big reason the club has been one of the surprises of the first half of the season. The Cardinals are 48-44 and three games out of an NL wild-card spot heading into the weekend.
The deal is one of the first big signings for St. Louis since significant changes were made to the top of the organizational ladder.
Last September, Chaim Bloom took over as the Cardinals’ president of baseball operations, replacing longtime general manager John Mozeliak. Then, Bill DeWitt III took over as chief executive officer, though Bill DeWitt Jr. has continued as its chairman and principal owner with a hand in baseball and business matters.
