Category: MLB

The Cardinals did not take advantage of a worn out Reds bullpen. They pretty much let their starters go as deep as starters end up going nowadays. They let their starter for hire Kent Emmanuel survive through 5 innings despite about two baserunners per inning, but that’s fine because they won anyway. I was definitely more annoyed they let Rhett Lowder get two outs in the 7th inning. The Reds bullpen exited Monday less taxed than the Cardinals somehow. They also let Andrew Abbot pitch into the 7th inning as well. Meanwhile the Reds offense did basically what I wanted the Cardinals offense to do, at least with regards to working the starters.

So I think they bungled their advantage. If they win later today, that’s okay, I will take 3 out of 5 against any team. It could have been a much better series, but while the Reds offense hasn’t been that good, they’ve been very good at making the Cardinals use every bit of their bullpen, leading to Matthew Libertore needing to stay in to allow a three-run homer, because Luis Gastelum was the only functioning right-handed arm and he threw 40 pitches in the past 3 days! Riley O’Brien, George Soriano, Ryne Stanek, and Gordon Graceffo were all required on both Monday and Tuesday. We saw how Justin Bruhl did yesterday. Peter Strzelecki threw 46 pitches on Monday, so he was still unavailable today I’m sure.

So you’re going to have to miss me with the “Oli blew it” calls. He had no choice. They had gotten to the point where they needed length from a starter and he just made a bad pitch on 1-2. Not sure why they called a fastball there, but whatever. On a day where he had 9 strikeouts and no walks. A starting pitcher throwing 6 innings with 3 ER at Great American Ballpark should still win most of those games. The offense has been a huge disappointment this entire series in my honest opinion. After a great Cubs series, they have not come through, scoring 2, 3, 4, and 5 runs which I don’t know why we are surprised that resulted in a 2-2 series tie at a huge hitter’s park. Anyway rant over.

The Schedule Ahead

It feels like a lost cause to ask for this, because it does not feel like the Cardinals ever hit well on getaway day games, but Brady Singer is a bad pitcher. He has had a huge home run problem this year, no doubt due to the park he plays in. The offense really needs to show up. 2-3 runs and letting Singer go 6 – I mean that might work because it’s not like the Reds offense is good either, but come on guys please take advantage of this ballpark at least once. This feels like an identical series that we would have if this was played at Busch Stadium more or less.

Michael McGreevy is pitching which I like. But I consider today’s game about as close to a must-win as a game can be in this time of year. It is not literally must-win, because they have enough time to make up for it, but 66-63 and 65-64 is a mighty big difference and the Reds are not a good team. Feel like you kind of have to win these series.

Past the Reds, the Cardinals have a very difficult series in Philadephia. Like if they win today and then they win the series in Philly, I’m going to become a true believer in this team. They have to face Jesus Luzardo and Christopher Sanchez. They are also facing Andrew Painter again and I actually think seeing him for a second time will help the offense. But very clear strategy in this series. Win the Painter game and find a way to win one of the others.

Then they head back to St. Louis and face the Baltimore Orioles for three games. Orioles are an underperforming, but talented team, so I don’t want to overlook them. But they are five games under .500 and have a -31 run differential, so certainly a series you need to win. Then Pittsburgh comes into town for three games. They actually have a +31 run differential, so they may actually be a good team. Let’s hope there’s some unforeseen reason they are badly underperforming there and win that series as well.

You’ll notice, as I go through these series, I’ll never say sweep. That is an unreasonable expectation. My goal is to win every series until the end of the season. I firmly believe if that happens, they make the playoffs. What a sweep allows you to do is give you wiggle room in case you lose a series, which is almost inevitable. But for a particular series, I think you’re setting yourself up for failure to expect a sweep, because they are hard and they don’t happen often. The Cardinals have swept just three teams all year and they’ve been swept twice. It might happen a fourth or fifth time, but I’m not going to predict the team.

After that, the Cardinals head to Los Angeles to face the Dodgers. Let’s hope that the Dodgers continue coasting on the fact that they know they’ll make the playoffs, because aside from winning two straight against the Rockies, they haven’t really played all that well in the 2nd half. Facing the Dodgers in September is not the worst thing honestly, especially if they just take it for granted that they’ll win their division. Still a tough series to win.

And then they head to Colorado to face the Rockies at Coors Field. Unfortunately, Coors Field is always a tough place to play so despite the Rockies being bad, it’s not a sure thing they win this series. I mean we’ve seen this in recent years. The Rockies have played pretty well against the Cardinals. They then have three games in San Francisco, which I want to pencil down as a series win, but I am forever scarred by the 2010 Giants teams and I think they might have a voodoo doll of every Cardinals player.

They then head back to St. Louis to face the surprising White Sox. I confess I don’t know much about the White Sox this year, so I’ll just trust their record and say they’re going to be a hard team. There is a part of me that views them as the anti-Blue Jays though where in the back of my mind, I’m thinking “they aren’t actually this good and some team is gonna show them.” Why not the Cardinals?

And then the Giants meet us in St. Louis. After that, the Nationals play the Cardinals for three games in St. Louis. This is quite the extended stretch of bad teams, and also the White Sox in the middle of it. Ignoring the White Sox, let’s say the two Giants series, the Rockies series, and the Nationals series. The Cardinals need to figure out a way to win three of them and sweep the fourth. So I don’t care how they do it, it would be extremely helpful to the Cardinals playoff chances if they could take advantage of this weak stretch and go 9-3 in those four series. That’s asking a lot, but they may need a lot.

So you have to like the Cardinals’ odds honestly if they manage to survive through the next few series with series wins. That’s why I’m emphasizing series wins. Philly, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and LA is not a tremendously difficult stretch, but if they can come out of it with the equivalent of four series wins – if one is a sweep and one is a series loss, I don’t care – then they are really well-set up, because it’s a bunch of weaker teams after that. And the White Sox, who again I don’t know anything about but because they won 60 games last year, I kind of find it hard to fully buy into their record. My only point is that if the White Sox is the difficult team in a stretch of 15 games, that’s a pretty easy stretch. And they’re at home against the White Sox too, though that’s bad for the offense.

They do finish the season with two difficult opponents, albeit one of them will likely have zero to play for. They face the Pirates in Pittsburgh for three games. The Pirates might be out of it at this point, but they’re a young team and they’re going want to knock the Cardinals out of the playoffs I’d think. So I am worried about this series. And then they finish the season in Milwaukee. Which I am not as worried about because there’s a very good chance Milwaukee will have absolutely nothing to play for, so they’re going to hold back their toughest starters for the playoffs. Milwaukee is of course good enough that they can still win, but the last series of the year being against a team who has already locked up a playoff spot isn’t the worst thing. Same logic as my Dodgers comments, but even more so here.

Weirdly, going over the schedule has somehow made me more optimistic about making the playoffs. Not that i expect it, but there’s a route to it for sure. The next week is going to be critical. Today is going to be critical. Their toughest opponents are arguably in the next week and a half. I say they need to win the series, but they just need to make sure they’re still in it really. Don’t get swept. Maybe some teams ahead of us help us out and we still look okay after the Dodgers. So some of it is in the Cardinals’ control and some of it isn’t. The Phillies are our direct competitor so that one is in the Cardinals control, although it won’t be easy.

But really, the main reason I’m more optimistic is because I feel like a sweep or two might actually happen? As a fan, I will not expect a sweep when the Cardinals face a bad team. But if they face 6 bad teams in a row, you have great increased the chances of one of them being a sweep. And the Cardinals are facing enough bad teams the rest of this year that it would almost be weird if they didn’t pull off one more sweep. They might bungle the playoffs in other ways and probably will, but one of the bad teams is surely going to stink it up and the Cardinals can’t let them off the hook like this series.

So win today, survive the next week and a half to get to a weaker part of the schedule, profit?

Meet the Mets

The Mets took the rubber game of their series with the Padres yesterday afternoon at Citi Field, giving them their eleventh win in their past fifteen games. Carson Benge got the Mets on the board with a two-run home run in the fourth, and a couple of insurance runs in the eighth proved to be the difference in the 4-2 win.

Choose your recap: Amazin’ Avenue, Newsday, New York Post

Before the game, the Mets placed Jorge Polanco on the injured list as he prepares for season-ending ankle surgery.

Steve Cohen spoke to the press ahead of the game and acknowledged that the Mets might have taken on too much risk with the 2026 team.

With Cohen continuing to express confidence in president of baseball operations David Stearns, Abbey Mastracco writes that Stearns has to learn from his mistakes.

Will Sammon wonders if Stearns could benefit from adding another voice or two to the front office.

David Lennon wonders when Steve Cohen’s Mets will stop needing to turn the page on their seasons.

Andy Green hasn’t yet indicated that he’d be interested in managing the Mets beyond this season, but he’d be considered for the job if he were to express interest.

Carson Benge and A.J. Ewing continue to enjoy playing their guitars off the field.

There’s a new MLB Network documentary coming out about baseball’s post-9/11 return.

Around the National League East

The Twins completed a sweep of the reeling Braves.

Aaron Nola and the Phillies beat the Marlins, leaving Philadelphia just 4.5 games back of the first-place Braves in the National League East.

The Phillies signed Nestor Cortes to a major league deal.

The Nationals blanked the Rangers, and Federal Baseball wonders what Washington should do about Dylan Crews.

Around Major League Baseball

Dodgers owner Mark Walter is the subject of a federal probe.

On the field, Los Angeles completed a sweep of the Rockies with an extra-inning win.

In a game between a pair of sub-.500 teams that are in the mix for postseason spots, the Pirates came back late to beat the Tigers.

Ahead of that win, Bucs Dugout looked at three things that would keep Pittsburgh from making the playoffs.

And last but not least on the Pirates front, the team acquired catcher Christian Bethancourt from the Yankees.

The White Sox shut out the Cubs to win their series finale.

The Diamondbacks avoided a sweep as they beat the Red Sox in extra innings.

Pete Alonso hit his 29th home run of the season and now has a 141 wRC+, but his Orioles fell to the Yankees.

Speaking of first basemen, there’s new data to compare which players at the position are the best at scooping throws.

The Giants shut out the Guardians, one of the very many American League teams that have a real shot at making the playoffs despite their losing record.

The Reds scored five runs—with a little help from the Cardinals—in a victory over St. Louis.

Houston’s bullpen shined as the Astros beat the Angels.

The Rays notched a 7-6 win over the Blue Jays.

The Royals came back to defeat the A’s.

Coming off an embarrassing 22-0 loss the night before, the Mariners beat the Brewers yesterday.

Here are eight players who’ve soared past expectations in 2026.

This Date in Mets History

Doc Gooden and Howard Johnson notched some milestone stats on this date in years past.

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

Here are my MLB moneyline predictions for tonight's slate, which include the White Sox at plus money on the road against the Braves.

Before we dive in, be sure to check out all of our MLB picks for Thursday, Aug. 20.

MLB moneyline picks for August 20

Matchup	Pick
Cardinals vs Reds	-107
Giants vs Guardians	-191
Blue Jays vs Rays	-161
Athletics vs Royals	-137
Braves vs White Sox	+105
Mariners vs Brewers	+119
Yankees vs Orioles	+105
Nationals vs Rangers	+146
Angels vs Astros	+158

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 8-20.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for Aug. 20

Cardinals vs Reds: Cardinals (-107)

Cardinals win probability: 52%

The Reds may be coming off a 5-4 win over the Cardinals last night, but their offense has been pretty cold over the last six, 12, and 21 games. Over their last 12, Cincinnati owns just a 50 wRC+, 27.2% strikeout rate, and .549 OPS. Brady Singer takes the rubber tonight, coming off three starts in which he has posted a 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, will send Michael McGreevy to the mound. He's turned things around over his last three starts, posting a 2.81 ERA and 1.38 WHIP while allowing just a 6.12% barrel rate. St. Louis' offense has also been scorching hot over its last 12 games.

At -107, the Cardinals are a great look.

Giants vs Guardians: Guardians (-191)

Guardians win probability: 66%

The way Gavin Williams has been pitching lately makes it hard not to back the Guardians against a struggling Giants offense. Landen Roupp, meanwhile, has been pretty brutal in his most recent outings, making it even easier to lean on Williams in this matchup.

Neither the Giants' nor Guardians' bats have been particularly hot lately, but at least Cleveland isn't striking out at a high rate and has continued to draw walks.

It's heavy juice, but I trust the Guardians here.

Blue Jays vs Rays: Rays (-161)

Rays win probability: 61%

Blue Jays right-hander Shane Bieber has been allowing far too much hard contact to be trusted over his last three starts. The veteran owns a 4.94 xERA during that span, allowing a 51% hard-hit rate and nearly a 13% barrel rate to opposing hitters.

Rays left-hander Ian Seymour owns a 4.50 xERA over his last three starts, but he has held things down at home this season, posting a 3.32 xERA.

On top of that, the Rays' offense continues to hum despite Toronto finally sparking some life offensively. This is a full fade on Bieber.

Athletics vs Royals: Royals (-137)

Royals win probability: 57%

The Royals have been looking strong as of late, and with Randy Dobnak on the bump this evening, he should be able to hold down the Athletics' offense.

The right-hander does have some concerning underlying metrics, but he has done a phenomenal job limiting hard contact, allowing us to overlook his 4.03 xERA over his last three starts.

Plus, the Royals own a .338 wOBA, 116 wRC+, and .759 OPS over their last six games, making them worth paying the juice for this evening.

Braves vs White Sox: White Sox (-103)

White Sox win probability: 50%

Mariners vs Brewers: Mariners (+119)

Mariners win probability: 45%

After nearly blowing a 7-0 lead last night, the Mariners still came out on top, beating the Brewers 7-5. Tonight, they find themselves as +119 underdogs against southpaw Robert Gasser, who owns a 5.29 xERA over his last three outings.

Seattle sends George Kirby to the mound, and he has been very solid over his last three despite his strikeout and walk rates looking nearly identical. Kirby has done a great job limiting hard contact, unlike Gasser, who has allowed nearly a 50% hard-hit rate and 10.2% barrel rate to opposing hitters.

Despite the near choke last night, the Mariners as an underdog are the more appealing look here.

Yankees vs Orioles: Orioles (+105)

Orioles win probability: 47%

Despite the Yankees managing to come out on top game after game with lifeless offensive numbers, the Orioles are the more attractive play as a home underdog.

Gerrit Cole takes the mound tonight for New York and has looked lights out, but there is a slight concern with how much hard contact he has been allowing. That could come back to bite him against a red-hot Orioles offense that should be able to get on top of his offerings.

Take the hungry dog!

Nationals vs Rangers: Nationals (+146)

Nationals win probability: 40%

Simple and sweet.

Both lineups are ice cold, while one team sends out a pitcher going through a rough patch at the moment. That team is the Texas Rangers. Jacob deGrom has looked pretty bad over his last five starts, posting a 6.30 ERA and 1.95 WHIP while allowing a 52.38% hard-hit rate and 9.52% barrel rate to opposing hitters.

The Nationals at nearly +150 are an enticing look.

Angels vs Astros: Angels (+158)

Angels win probability: 38%

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (64-57) won 2-1 (BOX SCORE)

Alexander started for Sugar Land and pitched well tossing 5 scoreless innings with 3 strikeouts. The offense got on the board in the 6th inning on a Delgado groundout. They got another run in the 7th inning on a bases loaded walk to Spence. The bullpen was solid tossing 3 scoreless innings and then in the 9th, Munoz allowed a run but he was able to hold on for the 2-1 win.

Note: Knorr has a 0.61 ERA over his last 12 outings.

• Jake Meyers, CF: 1-for-4, 2B
• Ray Delgado, 2B: 0-for-4, RBI
• Zach Dezenzo, DH: 1-for-2, 2B, BB
• Collin Price, C: 0-for-2, R, BB
• Lucas Spence, LF: 0-for-2, RBI, BB

• Jason Alexander, RHP: 5.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
• Trey McLoughlin, RHP: 0.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
• Michael Knorr, RHP: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K (WIN)
• Miguel Ullola, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Roddery Munoz, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K (SAVE)

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (54-62) lost 6-2 (BOX SCORE)

The Hooks got on the board in the 2nd inning on a sac fly. Hertzler got the start and went 4 innings allowing 2 runs while striking out 8. Guedez relieved by Hertzler but struggled allowing 4 runs. The offense got another run back in the 7th inning on an error but that was it as the Hooks fell 6-2.

Note: Hertzler has 96 K in 78 innings this season.

• Walker Janek, C: 1-for-4, R
• Will Bush, 1B: 1-for-3, R, BB
• Max Holy, SS: 0-for-2, RBI

• Cole Hertzler, RHP: 4.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
• Jose Guedez, RHP: 0.1 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
• Joey Mancini, RHP: 3.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• Nic Swanson, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K

A+: Asheville Tourists (40-74) won 7-6 (BOX SCORE)

Asheville got on the board in the first inning when a run scored on a steal. Perez started for Asheville and struck out 8 batters over 4 innings while allowing 2 runs. Ogando pitched in relief and allowed 3 runs. Asheville responded in the 5th scoring 3 runs on a Powell solo home run and Gomez 2 run home run. The offense would rally again in the 7th scoring 3 runs on an error and 2 runs on a Vasquez 2 run double. The pen was solid the rest of the way as Asheville won 7-6.

Note: Perez has 103 K over 89.1 innings this season.

• Xavier Neyens, 3B: 1-for-3, 2 R, 2B, 2 BB
• Caden Powell, RF: 1-for-5, R, HR, RBI
• Jack Moss, 1B: 0-for-3, R, 2 BB
• Kenni Gomez, CF: 1-for-4, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI, SB
• Zach Daudet, SS: 2-for-3, R, BB
• Yosweld Vasquez, C: 1-for-4, 2B, 2 RBI
• DJ Newman, LF: 2-for-4, SB

• Javier Perez, RHP: 4.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
• Joan Ogando, RHP: 1.2 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• Max Martin, RHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
• Francisco Frias, RHP: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K (WIN)

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (59-53) won 19-1 (BOX SCORE)

The Woodpeckers got on the scoring started in the first inning scoring 3 runs on a bases loaded walk to Nowak and Flores and a hit by pitch to Soto. In the 2nd inning, Alvarez connected on a 2 run home run. Durnin continued the scoring with a solo home run in the 4th. In the 5th inning, the offense added 3 runs on an error and Hughes 2 run home run. Fraide got the start for the Woodpeckers and was really good tossing 5.2 scoreless innings with 7 strikeouts. The offense exploded for 8 runs in the 8th inning on a Luciano 2 run home run, Soto walk, Ramirez RBI single, Durnin walk, Hughes groundout, Alvarez RBI single and Luciano RBI single. The offense would add 2 more in the 9th on a Hughes 2 run triple. Serrano closed it out allowing a run in the 9th as the Woodpeckers won 19-1.

Note: Nowak is hitting .381 in Single-A.

• Kam Durnin, DH: 3-for-6, 4 R, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB
• Logan Hughes, 1B: 3-for-7, R, HR, 5 RBI
• Kevin Alvarez, CF: 2-for-4, 3 R, HR, 3 RBI, 3 BB
• Waner Luciano, 3B: 2-for-4, 2 R, HR, 3 RBI, 3 BB
• Owen Nowak, LF: 0-for-4, R, RBI, 2 BB
• Arturo Flores, C: 0-for-2, 2 R, RBI, 3 BB
• Petey Soto Jr., SS: 2-for-3, 3 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB
• German Ramirez, 2B: 1-for-5, R, RBI, BB

• Juan Fraide, RHP: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K (WIN)
• Jose Serrano, RHP: 3.1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 2 K (SAVE)

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Mike Burrows – 7:05 CT

CC: Nolan DeVos – 6:35 CT

AV: Adam Shoemaker – 5:35 CT

FV: TBD – 6:05 CT

Two seasons ago, the Chicago White Sox were 41-121 with the worst record in baseball. In 2026, the White Sox are 66-60 and currently lead the American League Central Division.

It’s one of the biggest two-year rebounds among modern-era teams that lost at least 110 games.

USA TODAY analyzed ballclubs two seasons after a 110-or-more-loss season and found that Chicago currently has the third-best, year-2 winning percentage in the modern era (1901 or later).

Better than the White Sox’s current .524 winning percentage is the Baltimore Orioles, who went 52-110 in 2021 and then posted a 101-win, .623% season in 2023.

The 2013 Houston Astros also held a better second-year season: After going 51-111 in 2013, Houston went 86-76 in 2015, good for a .531 winning percentage.

All told, only four of the 21 previous 110-loss teams with a completed second season finished above .500.

Chicago could be the fifth to join that subset if it doesn’t suffer a collapse in the final weeks of the season. To surpass .500, the White Sox will need to go at least 16-20 the rest of the way.

The other two clubs that improved to a winning record were the Boston Braves/Bees in 1935-37 and the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2021-23. The 1932 Boston Red Sox also managed to reach .500 in 1934 but did not pass it.

Every other team had a losing record in year two.

However, it’s notable that 20 of the 21 teams analyzed did improve upon their 110-loss record two years later. The one that didn’t: the New York Mets, who went 51-111 in 1963 and then 50-112 in 1965.

In terms of postseason success, only the 2023 Diamondbacks went on to win a multi-game playoff series; Arizona went on to lose the World Series to Texas that year.

The 2015 Astros and 2023 Orioles also reached the postseason, but neither won a multi-game series (Houston did win the AL Wild Card game, however).

So, if the White Sox were to make a deep playoff run reminiscent of their 2005 World Series win — the last time Chicago won a postseason series — they’ll need to buck another trend. But, as it turns out, this team is already used to ignoring historical precedent.

Methodology: Modern era (1901 or later) teams with 110 losses or more and their corresponding record two seasons later were pulled from the MLB Stats API. The 2025 Colorado Rockies team that went 43-119 were excluded from the analysis because they have yet to reach their year-2 season. The 2026 White Sox record is current through August 19 games.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: How the White Sox went from 121 losses to rare MLB company

Happy Thursday everyone! Friday is right around the corner.

Things have gone south of south recently for our A’s. Alone in first place in the American League West as late as May 26th, the club has since cratered. With how bad the AL was this year even hovering around .500 would have been enough to be playing meaningful baseball in September. Instead the club is the last team in the sport still looking for their 50th win as the Athletics own the worst record in the sport. Calling a minor league stadium their home add insult to injury, and currently they’re hoping to avoid a four-game sweep to the Royals this afternoon.

It wasn’t supposed to be like this. The team had the bones of a good squad. The A’s were a darkhorse playoff contender in many people’s minds, but what happened? Let’s briefly look back at the fate of all of our Opening Day starters.

• Catcher Shea Langeliers: All-Star starter, now out for the year
• First baseman Nick Kurtz: All-Star “starter”, now out for the year
• Second baseman Jeff McNeil: 14% worse than league average, now playing first base part-time
• Third baseman Max Muncy: struggled, demoted, returned, demoted again, now learning the outfield
• Shortstop Jacob Wilson: took a step back this year, now injured and likely heading for shoulder surgery
• Left fielder Tyler Soderstrom: was having a solid season, now out for the year with hip surgery
• Center fielder Denzel Clarke: struggled before injuries cost him majority of season
• Right fielder Lawrence Butler: hitting .211 after rushing back from double knee surgery
• DH Brent Rooker: struggled before injuries cost him majority of season

If you had told me at the beginning of the year that that would be the ultimate fate for the Opening Day starting nine, I’d have called you a pessimistic jerk. That couldn’t happen to all of them by August. Alas, we’re living in the worst reality concerning our A’s. While the pitching was always suspect the offense was supposed to be a massive strength this season. Instead the club is middle of the pack in the league in most offensive categories.

There’s room for optimism though! We know how talented this position player group is when they’re healthy and firing on all cylinders. That evidently wasn’t in the cards this year with injuries affecting nearly every single Opening Day starter. Injuries are apart of the sport and every team deals with them, but the injury bug would not leave the A’s clubhouse this year. That just compounded the problem areas of the team and made the weaknesses much harder to overcome.

It’s going to come down to how lucky are the A’s. None of the injuries seem to be cause for long-term concern but you never know. No team is this unlucky back-to-back years so just getting all of our guys back next season should improve the club. The new general manager would be smart to remember how bad the injuries got this year though and act accordingly. Just because the A’s are a young team doesn’t mean they don’t need serious major-league quality depth.

We got the game starting here soon with first pitch at 11:10. Have a great day A’s fans.

A’s Coverage:

• Amidst The Despair: The Position Player Talent Is There
• What Are The Next Steps For The A’s? ($)
• A’s Bullpen Collapses Again in 9-7 Defeat
• A’s Blow Late Lead, Fall To Royals 4-3
• A’s Drop Road Trip Opener 9-5
• A’s Take Series Against Rangers, Win 5-2
• A’s place Soderstrom on 10-day IL with left hip impingement; Hernaiz recalled
• Where Each A’s Player’s Contract Stands Entering Offseason
• Red-hot Bolte looking to build on lessons from rookie season
• A’s prospect Winkler thriving in ‘fresh start’ with Aviators
• Late Blast Lifts Rangers Over Athletics
• Why The New GM Needs To “Clean House”
• 111 games, zero errors: Wilson sets MLB record at shortstop
• A Seemingly Rock Bottomless Glass
• MLB Trade Grades: A’s Have Quiet Trade Deadline
• A’s Top Prospect Jamie Arnold Sets Career High in One of His Best Double-A Starts
• Fustercluck 2026: The Real Reasons For A Disappointing Season
• Signs Of Hope And Signs Of Hopeless
• Athletics prospect Ryan Lasko says feeling in his legs returning
• Cuban’s investment group purchases minority stake in Athletics
• Could last-minute buyer purchase rights to Bally’s project around A’s Las Vegas ballpark?
• Chan Ho Park joins A’s group; 1st Korean to buy stake in MLB club
• Blogfather Saves The Day With Pearls Of Most Excellent Advice

MLB News and Interest:

• Jorge Polanco To Undergo Season-Ending Surgery
• Ketel Marte back in Phoenix for knee testing after no-show
• With Díaz sidelined, Dodgers see Scott as ‘our best and most consistent reliever’
• Phillies Sign Nestor Cortes
• Rangers’ deGrom to start Thursday with 2,000 K’s in reach
• Braves Temporarily Move To Six-Man Rotation
• Nola continues resurgence with 7-inning gem to extend Phils’ win streak to six
• Murphy downplays Brewers buzz: ‘Don’t think we’ve played great’
• Pirates’ Skenes sees room to grow amid recent pitching struggles
• Dad catches son’s 1st pro HR after predicting it was about to happen
• The 10 biggest breakouts on the new Top 100 Prospects list
• Pirates Acquire Christian Bethancourt
• Which 1B are best at receiving throws? New data has the answer
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

Almost certainly won’t be seeing De Vries make his big league debut this season now:

Won’t be long until we see Arnold at the big league level:

Recent first rounder Drew Burress is looking legit so far:

Would he really provide a spark though?

Serious question. How many?

More from down on the farm:

Between Easton Shelton’s record-breaking performance and Tyler Glasnow demolishing Triple-A hitters, there is plenty for us to talk about in action on this past Wednesday across the Dodgers’ minor league affiliates.

Player of the day

What do you say of a hitter with more runs batted in than games, one who broke a team’s record with time to spare? Easton Shelton had another one of his dominant performances, now reaching 105 RBI on the season, putting him past Cody Bellinger’s 2015 campaign for the most ever by an Ontario Tower Buzzers player.

For the second time this month, Shelton homered in back-to-back games. Even though the batting average has taken a hit as of late, no pun intended, the production is still very high given the amount of power he brings to the table.

Triple-A Oklahoma City

Tyler Glasnow made it clear he is ready to return to the big leagues, as he toyed with the Space Cowboys in an outing in which he allowed just a lone hit and run. Pulled after 5.1 innings and short of 80 pitches, Glasnow struck out nine, but that one run was enough for him to be the losing pitcher of record in a 2-1 defeat.

On the other side of the pitching matchup, Jason Alexander might not have been as dominant, but he was even more effective with five scoreless. The only run the Comets would score came on a Hyeseong Kim solo shot in the ninth inning.

As ready as Glasnow is to be back in the bigs, reliever Ben Casparius is not, once again allowing multiple walks in an outing, responsible for the other run the Space Cowboys scored.

Double-A Tulsa

Holding the Sod Poodles to just one run through nine, with multi-inning scoreless appearances out of the bullpen from Carson Hobbs and Jacob Kmatz, the Drillers still couldn’t avoid the 4-1 loss in extras. Starter Zach Root had a knack for navigating through trouble, allowing just one run in four innings despite a 2.00 WHIP in the game.

What’s unsettling about this loss is that even though the Drillers had a terrible offensive performance as a team, it’s not as if the whole lineup was lost all the way through. Each one of the nine hitters reached safely at least once; they just failed to do so when it mattered most.

High-A Great Lakes

The Loons scored more runs than the Drillers and Comets combined, but they also found a way to be underwhelming through the vast majority of the game in a 6-5 loss. Each side had a five-run rally early in the game, and in the seventh, an RBI single allowed to cleanup hitter Kerrington Cross cost the Loons the win.

Virtually all of the Loons’ scoring came from shortstop Emil Morales, with a grand slam in the fourth, one of four hits Morales recorded in the game. Meanwhile, none of the other batters in the top five of the Loons’ order recorded a hit in this one.

Class-A Ontario

Need an RBI? Call 0800-Easton Shelton, and he’ll provide immediate assistance. The young first baseman now sits alone with the most runs driven in for a Dodger player in the California League, overcoming one of the more notable Dodger prospects of the last 15 years, Cody Bellinger.

Leading the way as the Tower Buzzers overcame an early 3-0 deficit, Shelton hit a solo shot in the fourth and then added a couple more RBI in the fifth to hand Ontario their first lead in this one.

Getting a day off from the field, Joendry Vargas shined as the team’s designated hitter as well, the only other player besides Shelton to record a multihit game.

Transactions

The Tulsa Drillers placed left-handed pitcher Luke Fox on the IL.

Wednesday’s scores

• Sugar Land 2, Oklahoma City 1
• Tulsa 1, Amarillo 4
• Fort Wayne 6, Great Lakes 5
• Ontario 7, Inland Empire 3

Thursday’s schedule

• 4:05 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Will Gagnon) at Fort Wayne (Carson Montgomery)
• 5:00 p.m. PT: Tulsa (Aidan Foeller) vs. Amarillo (Avery Short)
• 5:05 p.m. PT: Oklahoma City (Gavin Stone) at Sugar Land (Mike Burrows)
• 5:35 p.m. PT: Ontario (TBD) vs. Inland Empire (Jack Bowery)

On Monday here at Over The Monster, Jake Reiser already asked “how do the Red Sox incorporate Roman Anthony, Trevor Story, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa?” But as we’re learning from this roller coaster Red Sox season, roster construction is both a complex and fluid beast that evolves by the day, and yesterday was a particularly interesting one.

So much of the focus so far has been on the guys returning, and rightfully so. I mean, did you see that home run Roman Anthony hit on Monday? Or how about Keagan Stiefel’s article here on Tuesday questioning the speed at which Trevor Story will return?

But as compelling as it is to focus on all the guys coming back, something really interesting happened yesterday with all the guys who don’t want to leave. Namely, Nick Sogard, Jarren Duran, and Mickey Gasper all hit a home run. This is pretty amusing because you could argue that all three of these guys are at the top of the list in terms of people about to lose playing time when the cavalry comes back.

Gasper feels like the first man off the roster when somebody gets added. So what does he do this week? Hits a home run in every game of a three game series after have only having two major league home runs in his entire career (and none with the Red Sox). How about Jarren Duran? Do you think he feels Roman Anthony breathing down his neck? He went deep in the third inning yesterday.

And then there’s Nick Sogard, who is under pressure from the return of both Story and Kiner-Falefa, and led off the scoring with a home run of his own in the bottom of the first inning. But even before that long ball, Tyler Milliken was noting how much of a winning ballplayer Sogard has become, and I agree. At this point, Sogard needs to survive the upcoming roster tsunami. He does way too many little things to not be included as the bench/utility guy when all the dust settles.

Either way, isn’t it fascinating how human beings work? The guys on paper who all stand to get less playing time soon (or even get completely displaced off the roster) end up swinging the hottest sticks.

So with rehab assignments underway and a roster reshuffle immanent, where do you guys in the OTM community stand on this ever changing topic today? Use this thread to talk about that and whatever else you’d like, and as always, be good to one another.

The Yankees kept pace in a crowded American League playoff picture Thursday, felling the Orioles 5-3 on the strength of an eighth-inning rally to take their third straight. It was a mixed bag for their competition, with an intra-division matchup between the first place Rays and a Blue Jays squad still very much in the mix the marquee showdown.

Among the (many) other AL Wild Card hopefuls not listed below, Tigers closer Kenley Jansen blew a save opportunity and was walked off by the Pirates, Kody Clemens led the Twins to a sweep of the first-place Braves, and the Rangers were shut out by the Nationals, ceding the ever-changing last Wild Card spot to Minnesota in the process.

Tampa Bay Rays (76-50) 7, Toronto Blue Jays (62-66) 6

The AL-best Rays continued their torrid pace Wednesday, squeaking out a one-run victory against the Blue Jays, who still sit within a game of the third AL Wild Card spot despite the loss. It was not a banner day for two name-brand starting pitchers. Drew Rasmussen, the Rays’ ace who earned his second consecutive All-Star nod this year and carried a 2.78 ERA into play Wednesday, allowed just one run entering the fifth before imploding. After starting the frame with a strikeout, he allowed six of the next seven batters to reach first base in a textbook station-to-station rally that scored four more.

Fortunately for him and his Rays, Rasmussen was staked to a 7-1 lead before that inning got out of hand. Max Scherzer, the 42-year-old future Hall of Famer in the midst of a lost season, was torched yet again. Yandy Díaz started the party in the first with a two-run blast that traveled 414 feet out to center. The Rays’ offense exploded in the fourth, tacking on five more runs with some small ball of their own that ended Mad Max’s night. Wednesday’s game brought his ERA to 7.40 through 11 starts, calling into question the viability of inserting him every fifth day for a team clinging to its playoff hopes.

Nine-hole hitter Charles McAdoo brought the Blue Jays to within one with an RBI double in the sixth, but that’s where the score would stay. Three Rays relievers combined to throw 3.1 scoreless innings after McAdoo’s double, with Bryan Baker working around his own leadoff error in the ninth to secure his 36th (and a Rays record 25th straight) save of the season.

The two teams will face off in a rubber match at 1:10 ET Thursday, with Ian Seymour and Shane Bieber slated to start for the Rays and Blue Jays, respectively.

Other Games

Chicago White Sox (66-60) 3, Chicago Cubs (74-54) 0

The White Sox blanked the Cubs to avoid a sweep at the hands of their crosstown rivals. After Sean Newcomb pitched two innings to open the game, José Urquidy was the star of the show, holding the Cubs to two baserunners across six innings of work.

The South Siders struck first in the sixth on an RBI single off the bat of Andrew Benintendi, adding a pair of insurance runs in the eighth on a double from rookie Braden Montgomery. The pair of former Mets acquired by the Cubs at the deadline were their bright spots, with Tyrone Taylor recording both of their hits and Clay Holmes limiting the White Sox to one run in 5.1 innings.

Up next, the White Sox will keep their interleague run going, hosting a scuttling Braves squad for a one-game makeup before the Mets come to town for a three-game weekend set.

Arizona Diamondbacks (67-61) 7, Boston Red Sox (68-59) 6

The Red Sox came within a run of sweeping the Diamondbacks, falling just short in extras. After they were staked to an early 2-0 lead on homers by Nick Sogard and Jarren Duran, starter Payton Tolle and reliever Greg Weissert allowed five unanswered runs, punctuated by a two-run homer off the bat of the newly acquired Lars Nootbaar in the sixth. Mickey Gaspar answered back in the bottom half of the inning, swatting a three-run dinger to knot things up at five. That’s where the score would stay until the 10th, when Arizona scored two off Jovani Morán before the Red Sox were able only to plate their Manfred Man as old friend Jonathan Loáisiga closed things out.

After a day off Thursday, the Red Sox will continue their homestand, hosting a feeble Giants squad for a three-game series.

San Francisco Giants (52-74) 1, Cleveland Guardians (61-66) 0

Those feeble Giants toppled a playoff hopeful Wednesday, riding their much-maligned pitching staff to a shutout victory. Adrian Houser pitched five innings of bulk relief, with rookie Victor Bericoto knocking in San Francisco’s only run while Willy Adames collected three hits.

Parker Messick was excellent for Cleveland, holding the Giants to a single score in 6.2 innings of work to drop his season ERA to an exemplary 2.54. But his offense went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position, dooming his strong showing. The two teams will decide the series tomorrow.

Houston Astros (64-63) 3, Los Angeles Angels (50-77) 2

The Astros surged above .500 with a narrow win against the Angels. The scoring kicked off with a third-inning homer off the bat of Houston’s Christian Vázquez. After the Halos took a one-run lead in the top of the fourth, Houston answered back with a pair of their own runs in the bottom half of the inning, taking a 3-2 lead they would not relinquish. A series of five Houston relievers twirled 5.1 innings of scoreless ball to secure the victory, with Josh Hader pitching around a leadoff walk to notch his 18th save of the year.

The two teams will square off again Thursday to decide the series.

So much feast and so much famine in 2026. 10-game winning streaks, a 10-game losing streak. A few prolonged winning periods. A few prolonged losing periods. On the net, the winning has significantly outweighed the losing, but still frustrating. The Cubs have dropped four of seven. A speed bump not particularly notable. But it is exactly the kind of reason why I haven’t gotten overly excited as the Cubs got within striking distance of the Brewers. It’s been a long time since the Brewers have had an extended downturn. Probably a few years. Maybe I’m forgetting a stretch or two. They aren’t going to come back to us. We have to run them down.

A week like this. The Cubs have scored 22 runs over seven games is why we have trouble keeping up with them. You might have noted the Brewers scored 22 runs in a game this week. It happens. It happens. It happens. I could fill a jar with donations every time I have to type those words. A journeyman not quite starter shut the Cubs down for six innings in this one. He wasn’t particularly stretched out, but the Cubs got no traffic and really didn’t make him work. And he was able to get deep into the game. It happens.

It always feels like either the Cub offense is completely overmatched or everyone is running for the bat rack looking to get some swings in while they are routing someone. The nine games before this seven, the Cubs were 8-1 and scored 67 runs. That stretch includes a series against the back-to-back champs. Wild. It comes. It goes. It’s gone right now.

Off day Thursday, then gotta gear back up. The Fangraphs team schedule feature shows upcoming probabilities. I’m amused looking ahead with them. They aren’t particularly accurate. Though in fairness, they are probabilities and if you really understand probability, a 60/40 matchup can look like a huge edge, but of course there is a lot of variance in there. Anyway, this upcoming six game trip to Seattle and Arizona looks at best like two wins. That’s taking a 50.6 percent game as a win when that’s basically a coin flip. Two teams fighting for playoff spots. They aren’t going to go away easily. It’ll be into September probably before anyone might show any amount of let up. Maybe the Reds series at Wrigley right before the end of the month, but I’m not banking on that.

I didn’t talk much about this game. But the team didn’t accomplish much of anything. I’m still impressed with Clay Holmes. And Alex Bregman played a good shortstop third base, to be sure. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a third baseman field so many balls in front of the shortstop. But it was a day where you saw all of the skills that have led to a previous gold glove there. Actually, you would expect that maybe he’d have won one or two more.

Let’s hit the numbers and then turn the page and try to forget this one.

Three Positives:

• Tyrone Taylor had a single and a double (and a baserunning blunder) before leaving the game.
• Seiya Suzuki took two walks.
• Clay Holmes was less sharp than the last time, but allowed only one run over 5.1 innings.
• Mini hat tip to one of my favorite pitcher accomplishments. Caleb Thielbar faced one batter and recorded two outs thanks to a pickoff.

Game 128, August 19: White Sox 3, Cubs 0 (73-53)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Tyrone Taylor (.135). 2-2, 2B
• Hero: Clay Holmes (.117). 5.1 IP, 23 BF, 6 H, 2 BB, R, K (L 1-2)
• Sidekick: Caleb Thielbar (.057). 0.2 IP, 1 BF, K

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.243). 0-4
• Goat: Ryan Rolison (-.179). 0.2 IP, 5 BF, 2 H, BB, 2 R
• Kid: Alex Bregman (-.121). 0-4

WPA Play of the Game: Pete Crow-Armstrong batted with a runner on second and no outs in the sixth inning, the Cubs trailing by one. He lined out to right field and Tyrone Taylor was out trying to advance to third. (.177)

Cubs Play of the Game: Colson Montgomery batted with a runner on first and no outs in the fourth. He struck out and Braden Montgomery was caught trying to steal second. (.090)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 127 Winner: Alex Bregman 69 of 82 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong +27
• Alex Bregman +21
• Shōta Imanaga +14
• Trent Thornton/Carson Kelly +13.5
• Phil Maton -10
• Edward Cabrera -12.5
• Jameson Taillon -13
• Dansby Swanson -17
• Caleb Thielbar -18.5

Scoreboard Watching: (will return following Friday’s game)

Up Next: The Cubs face the Mariners (59-67). As crazy as it is, the Mariners are only three games out of the last wild card spot. No caps here as the Twins are presently holding that third slot at two games under. I wasn’t sure we’d see a wild card with a losing record at three wild cards, but here we are. Almost everything that could go wrong for the Mariners has this year. But they are still 33-29 at home. So, no real push over.

Matthew Boyd (8-2, 4.02) will be next up for the Cubs. He got rocked last time out against the Cardinals, allowing seven runs over 5.1 innings. He’ll look for a bounce back here. Emerson Hancock should be due for the Mariners. Hancock (7-7, 3.30) has been quite good. Even better over his last seven (2-3, 2.89, 37.1 IP). So this is a tough matchup. He won his last game at Houston, allowing two runs over seven.

When the Cubs get into the Mariner pen in this series, the Mariner pen is 20th in team ERA (4.24). They’ve converted just 28 of 48 save opportunities. The Mariners have used fewer innings out of the bullpen than any other team, by a comfortable margin. The Cub bullpen, for instance, has thrown about 80 more innings (in three more games). So expect the Mariners to be patient with their starters.

The Mariner offense is 27th in team OPS. So this is where you rely on your pitching staff to shut it down.

It’s not going to be easy, but go find a couple of wins.

Tuesday night’s series opener against the Orioles followed the exact same script that we’ve seen the last several weeks with the Yankees. A comatose offense, an elite pitching staff, a close game late, and a battle of the bullpens where every run matters. In the seventh inning, when the Yankees ultimately found the go-ahead runs with a two-run single by Trent Grisham, I thought about some things at the start of the rally.

Spencer Jones started it with a single off Shane Baz, representing the go-ahead run. With the team’s innate struggle to score runs of late, I immediately thought of the possibility of the guy who is regarded as the fastest player on the team being put in motion to give you three cracks at a runner in scoring position. Instead, over the next two at-bats, Jones stayed put, only advancing to second on George Lombard Jr.’s single.

This wound up not mattering due to Grisham’s heroics, but what if he didn’t come through against the lefty? While trying not to fall victim to Michael Kay’s fallacy of the predetermined outcome, if Jones ran on a relatively poor thrower in Carlos Narvaez and got to second, he would’ve scored easily on the slow grounder through the left side.

It’s not the first time I’ve felt something like this watching the Yankees (try to) hit. As much as the optics look bad when you mess up on the basepaths, the Yankees are just not good enough offensively to trust themselves to get runners over and hit them in right now. With the most athletic roster they’ve had in quite a long time, the Yankees need to lean into their speed and use it to push the envelope offensively, even if it means risking more outs on the bases.

For much of the season, it was part of the Yankees’ identity to leverage their speed. Through the Fourth of July, the Yankees were second in all of baseball in stolen bases with 92, leading all American League teams by at least 10. They had a teamwide Baserunning Runs (BsR) of 5.8, which was already their highest since 2017 while at the season’s halfway mark. It was a stark reversal from years past, when baserunning was perhaps the least important aspect of the game to them.

Fast forward six weeks, and things have changed. Since July 5, they’ve slowed their pace of stolen bases to eighth in baseball with 28, but the more stark decline is going from one of the best baserunning teams in baseball to the worst, recording -1.6 BsR in six weeks, a number that rivals the old, unathletic Yankees teams we saw a few years ago. This is coming with the most athletic roster the team has ever had, particularly with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton on the shelf due to injury.

There have been times when the Yankees are not as willing to push the envelope on the basepaths, likely due to the game situation. With the offensive struggles, they don’t want to risk giving away outs, which might make them intuitively less aggressive in certain situations. This doesn’t stop the speedy guys who get great jumps from stealing, but it tries to eliminate risk. Despite this, the team’s success rate has declined from a rate of 77.9 percent to just 70 percent while attempting just 1.08 stolen bases a game, compared to 1.34 before. Declining both efficiency and quantity is a no-go.

The decrease in BsR may also be correlated with the flip side, being too aggressive to try and steal a run. Two recent examples include Ryan McMahon attempting to advance to third last week against Seattle on a botched relay to ensure Jazz Chisholm Jr. scored, and this near-perfectly executed play by José Caballero to stay in a rundown long enough to get Chisholm to score an insurance run.

Both of these plays symbolize a team that wants to ensure they can get a singular run, at the expense of a larger rally, due to their current capabilities, but the second one was significantly wiser than the first and is the sort of thing you want to see. Not only did Charles McAdoo get the tag on by only a millimeter, but if Caballero didn’t slip on the rundown, he would’ve been safe at second while simultaneously scoring Chisholm. These are the kind of plays and the kind of players that you want to do this with.

The Yankees don’t have baserunning savants that can make slower players threats on the bases like Antoan Richardson did with Juan Soto last year in Queens, but they do have speed. On any given night, they boast at least three plus-plus runners: Chisholm, Caballero, Jones, and Lombard. These guys have some problems getting on base, for sure, but there have been situations almost nightly where they can contribute.

Getting thrown out trying to steal a base is brutal, especially for an offense that is struggling to score, but the upside is tremendous. One of these fast players leading off an inning with a walk or single and immediately getting into scoring position gives you three opportunities with RISP. Chisholm leads MLB in steals of third base, where the Yankees as a team are the best in baseball at (24-for-27). Those are especially valuable with less than two outs.

There’s also a formula that shows it’s worth it to have some risk attached. Look at the AL East-leading Rays. They almost always lead the league in outs on the bases and currently sit fifth this year while also being picked off a league-high 16 times. They get thrown out at home more than anyone but the Nationals. For a team that’s seen as the beacon of fundamental baseball, they make these mistakes way more often than the Yankees, but they do it with a method of aggressiveness that overall makes them a net positive.

Baseball Savant has more complex baserunning stats that show another side to this. The most aggressive teams in the sport at taking the extra base are among the best in their version of Baserunning Runs, while teams that are more passive are towards the bottom. The only thing that really stands out here with the Yankees is that they have -4 BsR on steals of second, which tracks with their mediocre 73 percent rate of successful steals. Part of that is likely dragged down by Cody Bellinger’s struggles this year (9-for-15) and Caballero’s propensity to overslide and get picked off.

All of this is an exercise in measuring risk. Is the benefit of trying to take the extra base and maximize RISP opportunities for an offense that consistently strands them worth the downside of giving away outs in an already perilous situation? For at least the time being, it just might be.

On paper last night’s loss to the Giants wasn’t the worst loss of the season. Emotionally, morally, and spiritually it certainly felt like one of the worst. The Guardians offense decided to take the day off again, going 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position. Messick got the loss after pitching a 6.2 inning gem. Messick gave up one run on six hits and struck out ten batters without a walk. Jake has the well written recap of this unfortunate loss here.

It is hard to have optimism for the remainder of this season, and I applaud any one who is able to see a route to the playoffs in this teams future. Unfortunately I cannot bring myself to give up on the team until they are statistically eliminated, but it is becoming hard to believe in their post season chances. The Guardians currently sit in third place in the AL Central, 5.5 games back from the first place Chicago White Sox. The Minnesota Twins are 4.0 games back in second place and the Detroit Tigers are staying neck and neck with the Guardians. The Wild Card race is not going in Cleveland’s favor with the Guardians sitting 3 spots and 1.5 games back from the Twins for the final Wild Card spot.

David Fry was recalled from Triple-A Columbus. Rhys Hoskins was placed on the 10-Day Injured List due to low back inflammation. Since being sent down, Fry has been hitting .294 with a 1.169 OPS. In 34 ABs he has 6 home runs and 18 RBIs.

Quincy had a nice write up about Angel Genao and his major contributions in his short time in the league.

Around the League

The Chicago Cubs picked up Gabriel Arias off of waivers after he was DFA’d by the Mets earlier this week.

The Tigers gave up two runs in the bottom of the ninth, losing to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Edwin Diaz’s time with the Los Angeles Dodgers has not been what any of the parties had hoped for. Diaz on Tuesday went on the IL for neck inflammation, his second stint on the IL with his new team so far this season.

On Wednesday, Diaz went for neck imaging, and the MRI showed the “best case scenario”, according to manager Dave Roberts. He went on to say that the injury seems to be more muscular than nerve related.

“I think he’d been feeling the tightness in his neck,” Roberts said. “But I think where it went to the other night, he hadn’t felt that sensation. So that’s what really checked him up.”

Roberts surmised that the closer would not be shut down very long for throwing, that it could only be a couple of days.

Maddie Lee of the L.A. Times has more information on the injury here.

Patrick Saunders of MLB.com also covers the Diaz injury, as well as who will be the closer while he is out. That man is Tanner Scott.

“His stuff, right now, today, is as good as it’s been all year,” manager Dave Roberts said Wednesday before the finale of a three-game series against the Rockies at Coors Field. “Right now, it’s easy to say that he’s our best reliever and most consistent reliever. I certainly see him as our closer.”

Scott already has the team-high saves for the season with 17, in 19 opportunities.

“Man, Tanner doesn’t complain,” the skipper said. “He’s always ready, wants to pitch, wants to help his teammates, his team, and certainly, given how last year went, for him to come back and right the ship.”

Hunter Feduccia was out of the Dodgers lineup on Wednesday, after he left Tuesday’s game early feeling ill.

“We’re just trying to hydrate him,” Roberts said after Tuesday’s game. “He’s got this stomach bug or food poisoning, something like that. He was scuffling all game, and he went as long as he could go. Obviously, he’ll be down (Wednesday). But he gave us a great effort.”

With Feduccia out and a lefty on the mound, the Dodgers did a little lineup shuffling. Freddie Freeman was moved down to the four slot, and Max Muncy and Tommy Edman were both given the day off, although both were available off the bench.

Owen Perkins of the OC Register covers some more details on Diaz as well as other updates to the lineup here.

The National League Most Valuable Player award race is going stupid hard right now. It is the definition of a dead heat, with Pete Crow-Armstrong and Shohei Ohtani vying for every inch of territory for an award that most (myself included) had already declared for Ohtani in early June. We have walk-off home runs, questions about how much half a season of pitching matters and ESPN features interviewing MLB players about what they think. It’s an NL MVP industrial complex, and I’m here to add my two cents. Maybe three, and (spoiler alert) I don’t think this race is as close as people are making it out to be.

Buckle up, because this will be a distillation of a number of personal passion points in baseball analytics and discourse. Frankly, I think Ohtani is obviously the MVP, and I reject the arguments being made in PCA’s favor. And I’m going to convince you I’m right with the fire of 1000 suns.  

If I wanted to bet my two cents instead of putting them in writing, Crow-Armstrong (-165) and Ohtani (+140) are essentially tied on FanDuel, with only a narrow edge for PCA because of a recent, visible surge (all these stats are current as of Wednesday morning). Ohtani’s odds have tailed off because he hasn’t been pitching lately, but he did rack up 3.0 pitching WAR with a 1.79 ERA before his injury in early July and has thrown down a .949 OPS just for fun; because, ya know, he’s Shohei Ohtani. 

The fact that Crow-Armstrong is even in this race is astounding, given that a player who is essentially Yordan Alvarez and Paul Skenes rolled into one should really never not win the MVP award. But Ohtani not even pitching 90 innings this year has apparently flipped things in favor of PCA, whose centerfield defense has captured the imagination of millions and whose chase for 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases has vaulted him narrowly above Ohtani. So has voter fatigue, given Ohtani has won the last three NL MVP awards, and PCA giving him a challenge is bound to give him bonus points.

You could argue that a 40-40 season, of which there have only been six in MLB history, should automatically grant you the MVP award, but you’d be surprised. Ohtani won it with his 50-50 2024, Ronald Acuña Jr. did too in 2023 with his 40-70 campaign and Jose Canseco won it in 1988 with the first ever such season. But the middle three: 1996 Barry Bonds (fifth in MVP voting), 1998 Alex Rodriguez (ninth in MVP voting) and 2006 Alfonso Soriano (sixth in MVP voting) all didn’t even come close. A-Rod and Bonds led their leagues in WAR those seasons too, but it didn’t matter at the time.

This might just be me, but I don’t think a 40-40 season (which PCA does not have yet, mind you) is more impressive than half a season of Cy Young pitching and a 155 wRC+ Silver Slugger-tier masterclass. Stolen bases are a supremely overrated statistic in baseball, and PCA’s 30+ stolen bases have only added about TWO runs for the Cubs all year. Ohtani added 21 runs as a pitcher in 82 ⅔ innings. 

Now, you will retort, PCA plays some of the best centerfield defense we’ve ever seen, and you’d throw my run value crap right back at me and say “PCA has racked up 24 fielding runs above average!” You will also say that, because of this fielding prowess and because Ohtani does not play in the field, PCA’s WAR (we’re using fWAR for all of this because I like it better) blows Ohtani out of the water, with PCA’s 8.4 beating Ohtani’s 7.1 and running away fast — Ohtani is not accumulating any pitching WAR while PCA continues to farm fielding stats.

Here’s the thing about fielding stats, though: PCA is obviously a generational centerfielder, all you have to do is watch one single Chicago Cubs game to know that, but these metrics leave a lot to be desired. I need you to trust me through this next part and not fall asleep: 

fWAR, which we’re using (and which the recent ESPN article about this debate used, weirdly, since ESPN’s own leaderboards use bWAR) is based on Outs Above Average (OAA, which PCA leads the league by far in). bWAR, the other flavor, has Ohtani closer to PCA because it is based on Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), which PCA is 10th in the majors in, behind two other centerfielders: Ceddanne Rafaela and Andy Pages. 

OAA really just measures how a defensive player turns batted-balls into outs. DRS, calculated by the Fielding Bible, supposedly measures a whole lot more than that, but they also do not make it easy to check their work given we have an idea of how their formula works … but it also isn’t actually published anywhere. Still with me? Okay. What that all means is that PCA is maybe the best defensive player in the league. But it’s definitely not a slam dunk, and I think pro-PCA arguments cherry-pick fielding data that fits their agenda. 

Ohtani, meanwhile, has no such fielding data to cherry-pick. He is disadvantaged by his position, given that you have to be a better hitter as a DH than you do as a CF to accumulate WAR, and these metrics aren’t built to parse that Ohtani is literally a pitcher as well. That reality is flying completely under the radar in this discussion.

PCA and Ohtani are both having roughly equal hitting seasons. Crow-Armstrong is indeed a much more impactful baserunner and fielder, and Ohtani (again) is a pitcher who just hasn’t pitched in a while. This whole debate boils down to your opinion about which thing is more valuable: half a season of godlike pitching or elite centerfield defense and baserunning? Even ignoring underlying contact-quality stuff that suggests Ohtani is actually a much better hitter and would lead me to believe he will have a better final month-and-a-half, I will take half a season of godlike pitching, please and thank you.

Finally, there’s the conceptual argument, which I will briefly make because I think it hammers the Ohtani case home. Is it humanly possible to disagree more about the definition of a word than sports fans disagree about what “valuable” means, specifically as it pertains to “most valuable player” awards? 

Some smart alecks will tell you that “valuable” just means “the player with the most value to their team,” but that is probably best defined by trade value, or the guy who would command the largest return in a trade. That is not how MVP awards have ever been doled out, and a far better title would be “Best Player” or, if you want to be needlessly verbose (I usually do), “player who had the best season.” 

Put simply: I don’t think it’s possible to be prime Jacob deGrom for half a season and peak Paul Goldschmidt for a full season AS ONE SINGULAR PERSON and not have “the best season.” I mean that with all due respect to PCA, but 82 ⅔ innings of that pitching just knocks everything else out of the picture for me. Ohtani is, for all the stats, the most unique, the most impressive, the most completely ridiculously impossibly stupidly good. The most, say it with me now, valuable.