Category: MLB

One of the most common critiques leveled against the Yankees’ 2025-26 offseason was that they were simply running it back, and to those critics, no move was as emblematic of that than the re-signing of Cody Bellinger. Although the 2019 NL MVP had a stellar year in 2025, hitting .272 with 29 homers and accumulating 4.9 WAR, many were wary, myself included, of how his offensive approach of eschewing walks and making contact, coupled with his low bat speed, would hold up over the duration of his contract.

Well, looks like I’m having crow for dinner tonight. After Monday’s action — a game in which Bellinger drilled a game-tying two-run homer — his wRC+ is sitting at a healthy 141. What’s truly surprising, though, is how he’s doing it — his walk rate is sitting at an elite 15.2 percent, up 6.5 percent from his 2025 mark. That’s the eighth-highest increase among all qualified batters in MLB.

While we’re still in small sample size season, walk rates for batters tend to stabilize earlier than other metrics, at around 120 plate appearances; Bellinger’s now at 204. If he can maintain this clip for the rest of the year, it would be a new career high for him.

Am I getting ahead of myself here? Maybe — there’s still a lot of baseball to be played. But I’m confident that Bellinger’s revamped approach will stick, for two main reasons: one, he’s doing it without becoming overly passive and letting hittable pitches go by, and two, he’s shown the ability to drastically change his offensive profile before in his career. Without further ado, let’s dive into the data.

In a vacuum, taking walks is great. Doing so allows you to get on base more, increasing your team’s chances of scoring. However, there are drawbacks to being too passive. Big league pitchers don’t throw many meatballs; being too committed to taking pitches might result in letting some middle-middle fastballs go right by you. The ideal approach is to be selectively aggressive — knowing which pitches you can do damage on, swinging at those, and laying off the rest.

It’s difficult to quantify this skill to a T, because the “right” pitches to swing at vary between hitters. However, one statistic makes a valiant effort — SEAGER, developed by Robert Orr of Baseball Prospectus, and named for noted hitting extraordinaire Corey Seager, attempts to put a number on how selectively aggressive a certain hitter is, with the league leaders generally scoring in the mid-20s, and the laggards posting marks close to zero.

For our purposes, we’re interested in how 2026 Bellinger stacks up against his 2025 self. If the current version of Bellinger is drawing walks at the cost of letting hittable pitches go by, we can expect his 2026 SEAGER to be lower than his 2025 mark. Conversely, if he’s maintained or even increased his SEAGER, we can conclude that he isn’t just hunting for walks; he’s hunting meatballs too.

At first glance, Bellinger’s raw SEAGER number suggest he’s slipped a bit: while his 2025 SEAGER was 13.4, his 2026 mark to date is 11.0. However, once you contextualize his numbers against the rest of the league, they tell a different story. In 2025, Bellinger’s 13.4 SEAGER placed in the 56th percentile among all qualified hitters. In 2026, his 11.0 clip places him at… the 56th percentile, yet again. For all intents and purposes, Bellinger is just as aggressive when he needs to be now as he was in 2025. That’s truly impressive, given that he’s taking walks at a career-high clip.

Even given these encouraging underlying stats, though, some might say it’s still too early in the season to declare that Bellinger has truly changed. And for basically any other hitter, I would agree. But Bellinger? I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. After all, he’s no stranger to drastically changing his offensive profile.

When Bellinger first burst on to the scene in 2017, his age-21 season, he was a classic three-true-outcomes slugger: lots of homers, walks, and strikeouts. In 2019, a sudden decrease in strikeouts, coupled with the juiced ball, allowed him to post the best offensive numbers of his career en route to an MVP award, but his core approach remained the same — swing hard and hit the ball far. For the first three seasons of his career, Bellinger ran hard contact rates above 40 percent.

After regressing to a 112 wRC+ in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, the bottom fell out for Bellinger in 2021. He hit just .165/.240/.302 over 350 plate appearances, for a wRC+ of 47. His strikeout rate ballooned to his pre-MVP levels, but his walk rate and power deserted him completely. While Bellinger “rebounded” to a 83 wRC+ the following year, many were convinced that his days as an impact bat were over.

However, Bellinger did not fade quietly into irrelevance. He underwent one of the most striking transformations I have ever seen, completely transforming himself as a hitter. He nearly halved his strikeout rate, slowed down his swing, and essentially became a contact hitter with pull-side power. The change paid off handsomely, rejuvenating his career with a 4.4 WAR season in 2023. And while he had a down year in 2024, we all know what he did in 2025.

My point is this: Bellinger has already shown himself to be extremely malleable as a player. Who’s to say he isn’t learning new tricks at this stage in his career? We’ve already established that the quality of his swing decisions hasn’t suffered as a result of his walk-taking ways. Neither has the quality of his contact; in fact, that’s improved. Bellinger’s hard contact rate slipped below 30 percent from 2023-2025; this year, he’s at 36.7 percent. The last three years saw his actual wOBA far outstrip his xwOBA; this year, he has a .376 wOBA against a .383 xwOBA. It’s like Bellinger heard every concern fans had about his signing, and made it his personal mission to alleviate all of them.

I know better than to declare a five-year contract a big win in just its first year. But I’d be lying if I said Bellinger’s stellar start hasn’t considerably improved my outlook. If he can just keep on what he’s been doing, the Yankees have a third elite offensive weapon behind Aaron Judge and Ben Rice.

TODAY’S GAME: The Houston Astros (20-30) and Minnesota Twins (22-27) will play the rubber match of this 3-game series this afternoon at 12:40 p.m. CT.

RHP Mike Burrows (2-5, 5.72 ERA) will make his 10th start of the season as he takes on Twins RHP Joe Ryan (2-3, 3.20 ERA).

ABOUT BURROWS: RHP Mike Burrows is making his club-leading 10th start of the season this afternoon and his 2nd career start/app. vs. MIN (other was at Target Field as well). He took the loss in his last start on 5/14 vs. SEA (5 IP, 7 ER). Prior to that start, had posted a 2.50 ERA (5ER/18IP) over a 3-start span.

VS. THE TWINS: The Astros have won 6 of their last 8 games vs. the Twins. HOU was 5-1 vs. MIN last season, going 3-0 at home and 2-1 here at Target Field.

The Astros won 2 of 3 in their last visit to Target Field, April 3-6 of 2025 and then later swept MIN in a 3-game series at Daikin Park, June 13-15.

Since 2021, the Astros are 10-6 at Target Field and 19-14 vs. MIN overall.

IN THE DAYTIME: Today is the 1st of 4 consecutive scheduled day games for the Astros.

All 3 games this weekend at Wrigley Field are scheduled to be day games. The last time that the Astros have played 4 consecutive day games was April 2-6 of last season (source: Elias).

ROADIES: Today is the 2nd game of a 10-game, 3-city road trip for the Astros.

After this 3-game set at MIN, they will visit Chicago for a 3-game series at Wrigley Field (Fri.-Sun.) vs. the Cubs and then travel back to Texas for a 4-game series vs. the Rangers at Globe Life Field (Mon.-Thurs).

ROADWORK: The Astros have been the AL’s top hitting team on the road in 2026. Entering today’s game, HOU leads the AL in road batting avg. (.272), OPS (.764), SLG (.422) and OBP (.342).

ROAD WARRIOR: In his young career, Brice Matthews has had success hitting on the road, as he enters today with a .282 (22×78) career avg. in 25 road games with 6 HR and 20 RBI with a .577 SLG and a .944 OPS.

In 2026, he is hitting .296 (16×54) on the road with 2 HR and an .881 OPS.

CLOSE CALLS: With last night’s win, the Astros are now 4-2 in 1-run games and 8-8 in 2-run games.

JAKE’S RETURN: Last night, Jake Meyers went 1×3 in what was his 1st game following a stint on the Injured List due to a right oblique strain (4/9-5/18, missed 36 games).

Traveling Well: Meyers is now 6×21 (.286) on the road this season after leading the Majors in road batting avg. last season with a .350 clip (min. 200 PA).

EE-SOCK: Last night’s HR for Isaac Paredes was #97 in his career. He needs 3 more HR to become the 4th MLB player born in Mexico to reach 100 career HR.

BRYAN’S SONG: After a slow start to his season, RHP Bryan Abreu has not allowed a run in his last 6 outings, covering 6.0 IP (3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 SO).

In his last 8 appearances, Abreu has posted a 1.12 ERA (1ER/8.0IP) with 9 K’s.

THE BIG OH: LHP Steven Okert punched out all 3 batters that he faced last night, giving him 7 K’s in his last 3.1 IP (3 app.). He has not allowed a run in his last 5 app. (5.1 IP).

AIR YORDAN: Yordan Alvarez is batting .309 with 11 doubles, 15 HR, 31 RBI and a 1.038 OPS (.419 OBP/.619 SLG).

In the AL, he ranks first in total bases (112), 2nd in OPS and SLG (.619), 3rd in OBP (.419), T-4th in HR and 4th in batting avg.

ON THE LEADER BOARD: As a club, the Astros currently lead the AL in hits (417) while ranking 2nd in OPS (.733) and SLG (.409) and 3rd in HR (60).

WALKER, TEXAS HAMMER: 1B Christian Walker is among the AL leaders in several offensive categories. He is 2nd on the club in HR (11) and T-1st in RBI (31).

Among the AL leaders, Walker ranks T-8th in RBI (31), T-10th in HR (11), 9th in total bases (90) and 11th in SLG (.500).

RECENT ROSTER MOVES: Yesterday, the Astros made the following roster moves:

-Placed RHP Lance McCullers Jr. on the 15-day Injured List due to right shoulder inflammation.

-Reinstated OF Jake Meyers from the 10-day Injured List.

-Reinstated RHP Nate Pearson from the 15-day Injured List.

-Optioned IF Shay Whitcomb to Triple A Sugar Land.

TODAY IN ASTROS HISTORY: 1978 – J.R. Richard and Jose Cruz have banner days, leading the Astros to a 13-0 win over the Braves in the Dome. Richard hurls a 4-hit, complete game shutout with 8 strikeouts. Jose Cruz goes 4×5 with a HR and 6 RBI.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Wednesday, May 20, 12:40 p.m. CT

Location: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN

TV: Space City Home Network

Streaming: SCHN+

Radio: KBME 790 AM & 94.5 FM HD2; TUDN 102.9 FM HD2 (Spanish)

If there was one player mentioned more than most this past offseason, it was Jarren Duran. As a trade candidate.

The thinking was, supposedly, simple: too many outfielders

Roman Anthony is set to be on the Red Sox forever. He’s a capable corner guy. There’s not a completing reason to move him to first base or DH as he turns 22.

Ceddanne Rafaela is the best centerfielder in baseball. He’s staying.

And Wilyer Abreu? He’s coming off a Gold Glove 2025 and was acquired for half a season of Christian Vazquez (thanks for everything, 2018 etc., but also that was a steal!).

Which brings us back to Duran.

He had an All-Star 2024, including winning the ASG MVP. He slashed .285/.342/.492 and was a 21 homer/34 steal guy.

2025 was a step back to 16/24 with a .256/.332/.442 line.

But there were trades for pitchers, first base, third base, and no move of Duran. He was to be slotted in as the left fielder, part-time DH, and center field replacement when Rafaela was out of the lineup.

And he started the season brutally. Remember his initial callup in 2021? The rough times? He posted a .578 OPS. in 2022. It wasn’t until 2023 that he played 100 games in the majors. This time he was better: an OPS of.828 and a sign of the big 2024 yet to come! But in 2026, even after Tuesday’s game, Duran is sitting on an OPS of .593. That’s part of a .189/.262/.331 line with 5 homers and 10 stolen bases. He’s on pace for around a 16 and 30 season. That’s pretty close to his 2025 output, though he’s way down on doubles with just 8 in 43 games.

After a tw0-hit Opening Day, Duran’s slash line was .400 across the board. Combined with four walks over the first four games of 2026 and his OBP was tacked up high for a while even as the slump would begin. Duran would walk just two more times during Alex Cora’s stint as manager.

While it is nearly Memorial Day, we are still early enough in the season that one good day can make change. Duran would fall down to a .162 batting average during the first game of the Yankees first visit of the season to Fenway Park. He’d get three hit the next day and soar to .194. Then with another three hit day, this time against the Tigers in Detroit, he’d climb all the way to .203. His first time above the Mendoza Line since April 5th. After the Tigers he’d go hitless in the entire series with the Phillies. A series the Red Sox would lose games with scores of 1-2 and 1-3. Games where hits could have really made a difference.

Is he hitting righties? Not really, .168/.241/.298 vs. .270/.335/.477 career. How about lefties ? Well, also no, at .229/.270/.314 vs. .232/.283/.335 in his career. For all the talk in the offseason and Spring Training about Cora wanting guys like Duran and Abreu to get more plate appearances against lefties, for Duran it hasn’t really worked, And righties are carving him up.

Which is all part of the point.

Jarren Duran is still here. He wasn’t traded.

Essentially no matchup is currently favoring him. But he had another twohit night and he’s up to .189 again. Could he be over .200 for Memorial Day? And then approach something near his .260 career batting average going forward? The Red Sox have to hope so, because he’s still in their plans and they need someone who looks at least like 2025 Duran if they’re going to coax more runs out of this lineup without a major trade, an idea which Craig Breslow has already splashed water on.

The Tampa Bay Rays' latest quest for a new stadium passed another hurdle Wednesday, May 20, when Hillsborough County commissioners approved a non-binding memorandum of understanding for their contribution to the $2.3 billion ballpark by a 5-2 vote.

The Rays aim to construct a domed stadium across Dale Mabry Boulevard from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' home, and not far from the New York Yankees' spring training complex. While it's been nearly two decades since the franchise first sought an alternative home to Tropicana Field — antiquated even before it first hosted Major League Baseball in 1998 — this particular effort aims to rally support from the state, county and city level.

New owner Patrick Zalupski, a prominent donor to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, is counting on $150 million in state funding to build the stadium on the Dale Mabry campus of Hillsborough College. The state legislature is currently in special session.

Yet the city and state contributions are slated to be much larger. The memorandum of understanding voted on Wednesday includes $976 million from Hillsborough County and the city of Tampa, according to the Tampa Bay Times. That's a slight decrease from the roughly $1.1 billion ask by the ballclub, which had stressed a goal of June 1 to secure agreements from the municipalities.

More: Tropicana Field roof repairs looking good with Rays ready for MLB return

When you look at Jose Tena, you do not see a huge physical presence. He is a pretty unassuming guy, listed at 5’10 195 pounds. You would guess Tena was a speedy, contact oriented player if you had not seen him play before. However, his defining trait is how hard he hits the baseball and how much force he generates from his small frame.

This season, Tena has seen a huge spike in his bat speed. It has gone from a below average 70.8 MPH to a well above average 73.5 MPH. After yesterday’s game, I asked Tena how he has improved his bat speed. He told me that he was working on getting stronger, especially in the core area. Tena also said that working with the Nats hitting coaches has helped as well.

The added bat speed has resulted in a ton of hard contact. His average exit velocity is 93.2 MPH this season, which is easily a career high. Over the past couple weeks, he has been absolutely torching balls. In the past 10 days or so, Tena’s average exit velocity is 97.7 MPH. That has him sandwiched between Kyle Schwarber and Drake Baldwin on that leaderboard. 

Seeing Tena next to those two hitters when it comes to exit velocities is pretty crazy when you look at him. We all know that Kyle Schwarber is an absolute unit, with a 5’11 230 pound frame built for power. Drake Baldwin is another powerful athlete, who is listed at 225 pounds. Tena is at least 30 pounds lighter than those guys, but has been packing a similar punch.

The thunder in Tena’s bat is resulting in a ton of extra base hits. Tena is not really a guy who hits a ton of flyballs to the pull side, so most of those extra base hits have been doubles. However, as we saw last night, he has the ability to hit balls out. Tena went to James Wood territory and hit a ball into the left field bullpen off of Nolan McLean.

Nine of Tena’s last 10 hits have gone for extra bases. That sort of impact is why Blake Butera has been giving him a lot of reps at the DH spot and hits him towards the top of the order at times. For the season, Tena has a .748 OPS and 109 wRC+.

There are still areas of Tena’s game that could improve though. He has been striking out a lot this season. His K rate is hovering around 30% for the season, which is a big jump from his 22% K rate in 2025. He is taking big hacks, and there are times where he comes up empty. We saw some frustrating strikeouts from him in the first game of the Mets series.

Tena has some chase in his game and does not walk a ton either. However, he does not chase an egregious amount. His 30% chase rate is pretty close to league average. This profile does mean Tena has to do damage to have success. He has been doing just that this year.

The Nats lead all of baseball in doubles, and Tena plays a role in that. Blasting rockets into the gap is a massive part of Tena’s game. A perfect example of that is the RBI double he hit the other day that drove in Joey Wiemer. It was a 108 MPH liner right into the gap.

Jose Tena is showing that you do not have to be a huge guy to hit the ball hard. If you are strong and have good swing mechanics, you can hit the ball hard. Honestly, Dylan Crews is another example of this and is fairly similar to Tena as a hitter. Seeing Crews at his locker yesterday, I was surprised at how small he was.

When you see guys like Crews and Tena on the field hitting rockets, they appear to be bigger guys than they actually are. Not all power hitters have to look like James Wood or Aaron Judge, and that is pretty cool to see. Every time I see the unassuming Tena hit a 110 MPH rocket into the gap, I am always slightly taken aback even though I have seen it plenty of times now. 

CJ Abrams and James Wood are the engines of this Nats offense, but you need more than two guys to be an elite offense. The contributions of players like Tena, Curtis Mead, and even the recently demoted Joey Wiemer are what pushes this offense from good to great.

Texas Rangers lineup for May 20, 2026 against the Colorado Rockies: starting pitchers are Jack Leiter for the Rangers and Kyle Freeland for the Rockies.

The Rangers take on the Rockies in an afternoon rubber match for their three game series. They are facing Kyle Freeland. On the one hand, Freeland has been bad this year, with a 7.22 ERA in 33 innings over 7 starts, with a 5.42 xERA and 5.40 FIP. On the other hand, Freeland is a lefty, which means that the Rangers are running out a lineup that everyone is going to be mad about.

The lineup:

McCutchen — DH

Foscue — 2B

Nimmo — RF

Jung — 3B

Duran — SS

Burger — 1B

Helman — CF

Higashioka — C

Haggerty — LF

2:10 p.m. Central start time. Rangers are -120 favorites.

On Tuesday night, the Pittsburgh Pirates fell to the St.Louis Cardinals 9-6 in 10 innings. That was the ninth extra inning game of the season for the Pirates, which is second in the league right behind the New York Mets, who have 10.

The Bucs now have a record of 3-6 in extra inning games. Those six losses are the most extra inning losses by any team in the Majors. In the last four games, the Pirates have had two extra inning games. In both games, Pittsburgh blew a late-game lead. 

One of the main reasons for the Buccos extra inning struggles is their bullpen. Tuesday night’s game we saw Mason Montgomery blow the game allowing a three-run, 410-foot home run by Ivan Herrera. 

The bullpen has been an overarching issue for Pittsburgh early in this season. The Pirates don’t have a single guy that is dependable and reliable in late game situations. A lot of people thought that Dennis Santana could be that guy, but Santana blew the game in the Pirates 11-9 loss to the Phillies in 10 innings on May 15. 

Gregory Soto was also supposed to be a dependable reliever for the Bucs, but in that same game, Soto allowed three runs in the ninth inning to give up the lead. 

In the last couple of games, the starting pitching is also starting to struggle, which is just awful news for Pirate fans. Now that both the starting and relief pitching is struggling, that puts a lot of pressure on the offense to step up and produce. 

The Pirates are now on a four-game losing streak and are now last place in the NL Central. The Bucs have a record of 24-24 and are just 3-7 in their last 10 games. 

The extra inning struggles is a big deal because it shows that this is a team that cannot finish. If the Pirates want to get back to winning ways and be a playoff team, they have to start finding ways to finish out close games and they need to find their guy they can rely on in the bullpen.  If they can’t do those things, it will be a long next couple of months for the Pirates.     

Bunting in Major League Baseball is the ultimate tool of confirmation bias, stretching from the most anti-analytics “he’s got a great swing” truthers to those who watch baseball on a spreadsheet — all of them can love the bunt.

Traditionalists will enjoy the old-school approach of bunting as a way to advance runners into scoring position. Some who hate the pitcher-dominant game will delight in the refusal to indulge the swing-and-miss world by just not swinging. Others, who love analytics and Moneyball, will point out that bunting in 2026 could be the ultimate edge in a world that has embraced strikeout-embracing power hitting. There’s something for everyone with the bunt.

But is that something actually there? With the 2026 MLB Bunting Revolution very much taking place, we must investigate if the success of the American League-leading Tampa Bay Rays is actually due to a statistically significant increase in bunts, or if the Buntassiance is actually a Bunt Mirage. In short: I’m team Bunt Mirage.

First, some rudimentary statistics about bunting in our postmodern society: bunting has increased overall this year, though it would be incorrect to say teams are bunting more across the board. Plenty of MLB teams have actually been bunting less than in 2025, including some powerhouses like the New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves and the sport’s hottest team: the Philadelphia Phillies. All three essentially never bunt. Meanwhile, the San Diego Padres, who were the MLB’s top bunting team last year at .30 sacrifice bunts per game, have cut that down by two-thirds amid their bid to win the National League West over the Los Angeles Dodgers. It is, however, true that the Tampa Bay Rays are bunting more than any team since pitchers stopped hitting in 2021 and the most period since the 2017 Colorado Rockies. 

As of this writing, the Rays are 32-15, and hold a three game lead over the bunt-avoidant Yankees in the American League East. This has led to some discussions about if high-contact teams that skimp on power might be the next thing, and it has been heralded with much rejoicing by the bunt community. But I am supremely skeptical. 

First and foremost, we are talking about 17 bunts here. Tampa Bay is fourth in the MLB in hits with 416, so right off the bat (pun moderately intended) we are hit with a sample size problem: any suggestion that bunts are correlated with wins relies on a problematically low number of events relative to other data we could be using. Saying “bunting” is why the Tampa Bay Rays are winning is like saying you and your neighbor’s lawn signs specifically swung the local school committee race. Like … maybe, but there were probably more powerful forces at work.

Using data that is sufficiently large, the Rays simply do not have the underlying analytics of the best team in the American League. Offensively, they have the largest positive difference between expected and actual average, slugging, and contact quality. Their pitching has enjoyed similar aberrations, with the best of those expected versus actual metrics from opposing hitters save for slugging, in which they are second-best. 

That’s a mouthful, but all any of that really means is that the Rays have been hitting far better and their opponents have been hitting far worse than the data suggests they should be. In short, they’ve been lucky with whatever cosmic, intergalactic soup controls how baseballs fly on any given day. None of those metrics are influenced significantly by their 17 sacrifice bunts, which do not actually count against the hitters on base percentage for some completely unknown reason. 

As for bunting itself, I’m not breaking new ground here when I tell you that bunting is almost-always bad for your baseball team. Using fancy-schmancy, albeit a tad-outmoded run-expectancy metrics, we find that all but the most specific sacrifice bunts reduce your chances of scoring runs. When Brad Pitt said “no bunting whatsoever” in Moneyball, that’s what he was talking about. 

Using slightly more in-moded win probability metrics and this wonderful thing call the Game Strategy explorer on BaseballSavant.com, we discover that there are sacrifice bunts that increase your win probability, but only hyper specific ones: if there is a runner on second with zero outs and the game is tied in the bottom of the 8th, top of the 9th, bottom of the ninth or bottom of the 10th inning, a sacrifice bunt increases your probability of winning. That is it. It is literally never good when you are winning, it is literally never good if you are losing, it is literally never good anytime before the 8th inning or with more than zero outs, heck it is literally never good when the game is tied in the top of 10th inning. And all of that still implies that the bunt is successful, which is by no means a guarantee. Are you starting to see where I’m coming from?

Most notably, the beloved “bunt with a man on first with no outs” is never a good idea under any circumstances, but I think it’s better to unpack this one intuitively rather than just tell you it’s bad. Why would a manager bunt with a man on first? Because it puts a runner in scoring position roughly 65 percent of the time (the success rate of your average sac bunt attempt). Seems good right? Sure, but that also implies there is a radically better chance of getting an RBI hit in the next at bat rather than the current one, often why you see nine-hole hitters bunt to bring up the top of the order. 

And perhaps there is, under extremely specific circumstances, an opportunity to raise your chances of an RBI hit by five to eight percent by bringing up a hitter with a better batting average. But it does not raise your chances of scoring a run, just that of an RBI hit in the next at-bat. And that is not, under any circumstances, worth an entire out. Bunting with a man on first with no outs is an effort by managers to control a game that often feels like a progression of random events. But no data or intuitive explanation supports that strategy. 

Much has been written about the specific situations when bunting is good (tied, man on second, no outs, late innings), but just because those situations exist does not mean bunting is broadly a good strategy. In the big picture, laying down these ultra-specific bunts is too rare an occurrence to suggest they are the reasons for wins and losses. It’s just too small a data set and too specific an ask. 

I concede that the Rays are constructed basically to ignore power hitting in favor of making contact to keep runners moving, but I do not concede that has anything to do with bunting now being a good idea. The argument for bunting put forth by Rays Manager Kevin Cash that “hitting is (bad word) hard” does not mean bunting has somehow gotten easier — sac bunt success rates has improved since pitchers stopped hitting, but only marginally. 

There are specific instances when bunting is good, but I do not believe those instances are common enough nor statistically significant to suggest that bunting is somehow the great edge in Major League Baseball and everyone needs to follow the Rays to bunting Valhalla. It can be surprising and even effective if it results in a bunt-hit, but the skill set required to do that is so rare and esoteric that it is never worthwhile to invest in. I’d rather my hitters just swing the bat, which is cooler, more exciting and, wonderfully, just analytically better. 

Some time recently on Bluesky, I saw someone make a comment that resonated with me. They said that the thing about the Orioles this year is that it feels like every loss is going to lead to a ten-game losing streak and every win is merely a temporary reprieve. I’ve forgotten who said it; if it was you, good job.

It does feel that way about the 2026 Orioles. A segment of people, myself included, are primed to feel this way after what we experienced in April and May of last year, with the attached disappointment of the second half of the 2024 season as well. One game of a helpless pitching staff, one game of a helpless offense, it all can seem like any win is just an accident and they’ll be right back to losing the next time. They are going to have to rip off an extended stretch of good baseball to ward off this feeling. They haven’t been capable of that for quite some time.

Winning today certainly would not be enough to do it, because even if they explode for like 20 runs, that will mean nothing unless they can sustain the effort into the weekend’s series and beyond. Even so, it would be nice if the Orioles win today, because it’s more fun when they win than when they lose, you know? This is especially true for each day’s game recapper here on Camden Chat. That’s me today. So come on, Orioles. Win one for yourselves, win for your position in the standings, and also, you know, maybe win for me?

Orioles lineup

1. Taylor Ward – LF
2. Gunnar Henderson – SS
3. Adley Rutschman – C
4. Pete Alonso – 1B
5. Tyler O’Neill – RF
6. Samuel Basallo – DH
7. Jeremiah Jackson – 2B
8. Weston Wilson – 3B
9. Blaze Alexander – CF

This is the lineup in support of Shane Baz, who, as you likely already recall, was acquired by the Orioles from the Rays. Nine games into his Orioles career, Baz has two games where he has pitched well and seven games where the sum total of what happened in them is that Mike Elias looked like an idiot for trading four prospects and a draft pick for this guy and then giving him a contract extension before he ever threw a pitch for the team.

Rays lineup

1. Chandler Simpson – LF
2. Junior Caminero – 3B
3. Jonathan Aranda – DH
4. Ryan Vilade – 1B
5. Richie Palacios – 2B
6. Jonny DeLuca – RF
7. Cedric Mullins – CF
8. Hunter Feduccia – C
9. Taylor Walls – SS

Steven Matz is the Rays starting pitcher. It’s weird that Matz is on the Rays. He has a 3.86 ERA through seven starts, and will cost less over his two-year contract than Chris Bassitt will cost for one year.

David Wells turns 63 today.

David Wells was born in Torrance, California. Stories claim his mother was a ‘biker chick’ with five children from four fathers, and that he was raised by Hell’s Angels. True or not, it adds color to his background.

The Blue Jays picked him in the second round of the 1982 draft. Barry Bonds went nine picks later, and Bo Jackson and Barry Larkin were also picked in the same round.

A 6’4” left-hander, Wells was known for his size and fondness for beer, not fitness. Despite doubts, he pitched in the majors until age 44.

He had Tommy John surgery while in the minors. I read that he was the third pitcher to have it.

In 1987, Wells was called up to the Jays from Syracuse at the end of June, made two terrible starts, and then was sent back down. They brought him back to Toronto as a September call-up and pitched well as a reliever. He earned a spot in the Jays’ bullpen out of spring training in 1988 and made 41 appearances, saved 4 games with a 4.62 ERA. He was sent down to Syracuse in early July and then recalled late in the season.

1989 was David’s first full season with the Jays, and he had a heck of a year, pitching in 54 games, all in relief and finishing 7-4 with a 2.40 ERA. He started the season as a long reliever, going three or more innings several times, but he was used more as a setup man as the season went on. After the All-Star break, he was 5-0 with a 0.90 ERA. He had one appearance in our ALCS loss to Oakland.

In 1990, Wells started in the bullpen but moved to the rotation in late May, after Mike Flanagan was released. And Wells stayed there the rest of the season. He made 25 starts and 18 relief appearances; he was 7th in ERA at 3.14, going 11-6.

Boomer started in 1991 in the rotation but moved to the pen in September, after a bad stretch of 5 starts, all losses. He had an 8.89 ERA in those games. The Jays went to a four-man rotation down the stretch. He had an excellent season, going 15-10 with a 3.72 ERA in 28 starts and 12 relief appearances. He also led the league in picking off runners first, 13, a total that was higher than any other team. In our five-game loss to the Twins in the ALCS, Wells had four relief appearances and a 2.45 ERA.

In our first World Series season, 1992, Wells started the rotation and made two starts, but Stieb returned from injury, and Boomer went back to the pen. He returned to the rotation to make 12 starts from the end of July to the end of August, when Todd Stottlemyre went down with an injury and then went back to the pen again when the Jays picked up David Cone. Wells didn’t have a great season, going 7-9 with a 5.40 ERA, though his ERA was ruined from a game on August 20 when Cito Gaston left him in the game to allow 13 earned runs to save the bullpen. He pitched in 4 games of our World Series win over Atlanta, giving us 4.1 shutout innings.

In spring 1993, the Jays released Boomer, reportedly due to a poor relationship with manager Cito Gaston. Instead of trading him for value, personal differences led to his release.

The Detroit Tigers quickly signed him and made him a full-time starter. From Detroit, he went to the Reds, then the Orioles, and then to the Yankees. He had two good seasons with the Yankees, going 34-14, and winning a World Series ring. He also became the 15th pitcher in major league history to throw a perfect game.

After the 1998 season, the Yankees traded Wells, Homer Bush, and Graeme Lloyd to the Jays for Roger Clemens. At the time, I wasn’t too happy about it, as even though Wells had pitched well in two of the previous seasons before the trade, but not at the level Clemens had. Add in that Wells was 36, and since he didn’t take care of himself, I thought he wouldn’t end well. But Boomer was terrific for us, and Roger wasn’t as fantastic for the Yankees.

In 1999,, Wells went 17-10 for us with a 4.82 ERA while setting career highs in innings pitched (231.2), leading the league, and strikeouts (169), a club record at the time for a lefty. He also led the league in complete games with 7, as well as hits allowed. But with his excellent control, he could allow many hits and still be an effective pitcher, and in 1999, he walked only 2.41 batters per 9 innings.

2000 was even a better season for David, finishing 20-8 in 35 starts, with a 4.11 ERA. He finished 3rd in the Cy Young voting, and he started the All-Star game, pitching two shutout innings. He also received MVP votes. He tied Tim Hudson for the league lead in wins, was 6th in ERA, 2nd in innings pitched, 1st in complete games and shutouts, and in walk rate, walking only 1.21 batters per 9 innings. He was also the first Jay lefty to win 20 games.

After the season, Gord Ash, showing why he shouldn’t have been GM, traded Wells and Matt DeWitt to the White Sox for Mike Sirotka, Kevin Beirne, Brian Simmons, and Mike Williams. Sirotka was injured and never pitched in the majors again. Ash didn’t make the trade contingent on a medical examination, and MLB ruled against the Jays and upheld the trade. The Jays soon fired Ash.

After pitching a season for the White Sox, Boomer continued his tour of major league teams, taking a second tour with the Yankees, then playing for the Padres, Red Sox, and finally, the Dodgers. A fellow whose idea of working is a series of 12-ounce curls, he had a long career, pitching 21 seasons and pitching in the majors till age 44. He made it to post-season play with six different teams.

He finished with a 239-157 record in 660 games, 489 of them starts. The Jays started his career as a reliever, which is an excellent way to get a pitcher into the big leagues and learn to pitch in low-leverage spots, but the Jays couldn’t seem to put David into the starting rotation and leave him there. Partly because Cito didn’t like him, and likely some of Cito’s dislike was because he didn’t feel the need to keep himself in shape.

He was a big pitcher with great control, a great curve, an above-average fastball early in his career, not so above average later, a slider, and a changeup. Since he pitched into his 40s, it is hard to say he would have had a better career if he had kept himself in better shape. But then he has been diagnosed with Type 2 Diabetes, so there are other reasons to stay in shape.

Wells has an ‘autobiography’ called ‘Perfect I’m Not: Boomer on Beer.’ Among other things, it said he pitched his perfect game while hungover. He later said he was misquoted in the book, a strange claim for an autobiography.

Boomer, married with two sons, is a cult hero for middle-aged men who don’t fit the typical athletic mold. He shows that athletes can succeed without traditional fitness standards.

Wells is married and has two sons. He has done commentary on the YES Network and TBS. He does charity work for diabetes research.

He’s number 9 on the teams all-time list in pitcher bWAR and number 6 in wins.

Todd Stottlemyre turns 61 today. I don’t know why that makes me feel older than Wells turning 63. I guess I still see Stottlemyre as the young guy he was when he joined the Jays.

Todd’s most memorable moment came in Game 4 of the 1993 World Series, when his inexperience as a base runner led to an awkward, chin-scraping slide into third base and an easy out. The NL didn’t use the DH in those days, but the AL did. World Series games used the rules of the home team.

During that series, Philadelphia mayor Ed Rendell boasted he could hit Stottlemyre. Todd joked he’d strike the mayor out, later telling him to ‘kiss my ass’ at the Jays’ victory rally.

Stottlemyre was born May 20th, 1965, in Yakima, Washington. The Blue Jays drafted Todd in the first round (3rd pick) of the 1985 Amateur Draft, June Secondary phase, out of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. He is the son of former Yankees pitcher and pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre, a 5-time All-Star and brother of Mel Jr, who pitched in 13 games with the Royals in 1990. So he had the bloodline and the raw talent to be a good prospect. His father’s book, Pride and Pinstripes, is a good read.

A 6’3” right-hander, Stottlemyre was a durable, league-average pitcher famous for his intensity on the mound.

Todd’s rookie season was 1988. He made 16 starts and 12 relief appearances and finished with a 4-8 record and a 5.69 ERA in 98 innings pitched. He walked too many (46) and gave up way too many home runs (15).

In 1989, Stottlemyre helped the Blue Jays reach their first playoffs, starting in the ALCS but taking the loss in Game 2.

In 1990,, he became a full-time starter, making 33 starts with a 13-17 record and a 4.34 ERA over 203 innings. How he ended up with a losing record despite the 2nd-best run support (5.81 runs/9 innings) in the league, I have no idea. His strikeout rate dropped to 5.1 per 9 innings.

In 1991, Stottlemyre posted a 15-8 record and a career-best 3.78 ERA as the Jays reached the playoffs, though they lost to the Twins in the ALCS.

1992 was our first World Series win. Todd went 12-11 with a 4.50 ERA in 27 starts, but in the playoffs, he pitched out of the bullpen, as we had a pretty loaded rotation that season with Jack Morris, Jimmy Key, Juan Guzman, and late-season pickup David Cone. He had 1 appearance in our 6-game ALCS win over Oakland, and 4 shutout appearances in our 6-game World Series win over Atlanta.

The 1993 championship season saw Stottlemyre struggle in the regular season and playoffs, but the Jays still won the title.

Stottlemyre’s last season with the Jays was shortened by the lockout/strike that led to the World Series. He started 19 games and had 7 more relief appearances that year, with a 7-7 record and a 4.22 ERA. With the Jays, his strikeout-to-walk rate was never great, but it improved after leaving the team.

After the 1994 season, he signed as a free agent with the A’s. He pitched there one year, then they traded him to the Cardinals. In the third season, they moved him to the Rangers at the trading deadline. After the 1998 season, he signed a 4-year, $32 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks. They didn’t get much for their investment; he only made 39 starts over those 4 seasons because of arm troubles.

His 14-year career ended in 2002 with a 138-121 record and a 4.27 ERA. Never really a star, but he had a nice career. In his seven seasons as a Blue Jay, he was 69-70, with a 4.39 ERA in 206 games, 175 starts.

Todd is married and has five children. He now works as a life coach and has written two books.

We talked to him a few years ago, when his first book, Relentless Success, came out. The interview is in two parts: part one and part two. He was amiable, a very nice interview. As I mentioned, he wore his emotions on his sleeve. I asked, What advice would he give a 19-year-old Todd Stottlemyre:

Todd: Wow. Great question. Well, I tell people all the time that number one, it takes time. And success isn’t gonna happen overnight, and the focus should be every single day getting a little bit better. And you have to come to a place of resolve, where ‘quit’ is never an option. So I would probably start there, with me at 19. And I probably would’ve told myself at 19, instead of speaking or acting on all my emotions, I probably would’ve told me, Todd, pour all those emotions out on paper, in a journal, and that’ll keep you out of a lot of trouble.

In his book, he talked a lot about his relationship with his dad. His dad pitched for the Yankees in the 1960s and 70s. He had a streak of nine seasons with more than 250 innings. Unfortunately, at age 32, he had arm issues (not a surprise). The strange part was that they sent him to have his arm radiated as treatment, which didn’t work. I’m not sure if a direct line exists, but his dad battled cancer for years, and it finally killed him in 2019.

I asked Todd about some advice his dad gave him:

I was frustrated because it was my second time being sent down in the second consecutive year. I remember calling my father and I was frustrated, aggravated, complaining. I remember my dad letting me pour it all out, and when I was done, and at the time he was the pitching coach for the New York Mets, and he said “You know Todd, we’d love to have you as a starting pitcher here in New York.” And then he kinda took a breath, and then he says “But not the way you’re pitching today.” And it was kind of that wake-up call that I needed.

In his book, Todd also tells a story about being arrested with Dave Stewart in Dunedin for battery on a policeman. As Todd tells the story, a policeman was unhappy with Stewart, feeling he was disrespectful or something. There had been some dispute about a $3 entry fee at a bar. Stewart said he paid for it but didn’t want to wear a wristband. Todd got jumped by the police. Todd says he and Stewart were taken somewhere other than the police station and held there. He felt the police were using the time to get their story straight. An officer claimed that Stewart punched him. Stewart said, “If I close-fist hit anybody, you can believe that they would get more than just a gash.” They were found not guilty of all charges.

Todd is tied for 18th on our all-time list in bWAR for pitchers and 8th in Wins.

Jayson Werth turns 47 today.

Werth was a first round draft pick by the Orioles in 1997. We traded John Bale for him in 2000. He played parts of two seasons for the Jays (41 games in all) before we traded him to the Dodgers for Jason Frasor.

Jayson played for 6 major league teams over 15 seasons. In all, he played 1583 games with a .267/360/455 batting line and 229 home runs. He made one All-Star teams and received MVP votes four time

Happy Birthday David, Todd and Jayson.

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Undervalued underdogs highlight our favorite MLB picks for Wednesday's schedule, as our baseball experts have found two moneyline plays that show a ton of value at Polymarket.

See why you should tail our baseball experts in backing the ChiSox and Brew Crew... as well as an Under in Jays/Yankees in a showdown between two aces.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: CWS ML	+133
Jon Metler: MIL ML	+104
Joe Osborne: TOR/NYY u8.5	-133

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: White Sox moneyline

Price: 43¢ (+133) at Polymarket

The Chicago White Sox project as one of the best moneyline values on the board today at +133, with a fair price closer to -102. Years of losing have softened the market on Chicago, but THE BAT is extremely high on them in this spot. They grinded out a 2-1 win last night in Seattle, behind a combined one-hitter, and could catch a Mariners team looking ahead — Seattle has to pack up after a two-series homestand and travel to Kansas City for tomorrow, while the White Sox stay on the road and remain on the West Coast.

It’s a favorable schedule spot for Chicago, and Seattle could also be forced to navigate without its closer and setup man after both worked on back-to-back days.

Jon Metler's expert pick: Brewers moneyline

Price: 49¢ (+104) at Polymarket

The Milwaukee Brewers are trading as 49-cent underdogs in their NL Central matchup against the Chicago Cubs, but I make Milwaukee closer to 54-cent favorites in this spot.

Edward Cabrera draws a difficult matchup against a Brewers lineup that can stack as many as seven left-handed bats. That’s significant because Cabrera’s curveball loses some of its effectiveness against lefties, as it breaks into their barrels instead of away from them, but the bigger concern is command: Cabrera has always battled inconsistency in the strike zone, and this matchup could make him even more hesitant to attack hitters aggressively.

That’s dangerous against Milwaukee because the Brewers can pressure pitchers in multiple ways. They have speed throughout the lineup and can force mistakes on the bases, and Cabrera has historically been slow to the plate. If he starts handing out free passes, Milwaukee has the profile to capitalize quickly.

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Blue Jays/Yankees Under 8.5

Price: 57¢ (-133) at Polymarket

Everything points toward a low-scoring game tonight between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees. Both teams send dominant starters to the mound, with Cam Schlittler being the early AL Cy Young favorite after allowing one earned run or fewer in eight of his 10 starts this season, while Trey Yesavage has been nearly as sharp, bringing a 1.40 ERA into the matchup.

In 14 combined starts for Schlittler and Yesavage, only four have gone Over the game total. Both offenses have also struggled badly against right-handed pitching lately, ranking a surprising 26th and 28th in OPS over the last two weeks.

More MLB best bets for today

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

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The Cleveland Guardians will be searching for their fifth straight victory tonight as they take on the Detroit Tigers. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET at Comerica Park.

While Tanner Bibee has had bad luck this season, I’m eyeing Cleveland to deliver another high-scoring win in my Guardians vs. Tigers predictions. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, May 20.

Who will win Guardians vs Tigers today: Guardians moneyline (-117)

The Cleveland Guardians are 7-3 in their last 10 games, notching four consecutive victories on the road. 

Tanner Bibee owns an 0-6 record, but his 4.15 ERA is respectable, and the right-hander has improved lately. He’s only surrendered four earned runs across his last two starts, lasting at least six frames in each. 

The Guardians are currently flourishing offensively. The Detroit Tigers haven’t announced who will pitch here, but it’ll likely be an opener.

Regardless of who’s on the bump, Cleveland should continue to produce. They’ve scored 29 runs across the last four games. 

COVERS INTEL: The Guardians are sixth in wRC+ (107) over the last two weeks. 

Guardians vs Tigers Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-112)

Although Bibee has been better over the last few weeks, he’s still struggled on the road, and the Tigers are scoring more runs at home overall, averaging 4.13 per contest.

Bibee won’t get lit up, but he’s also not going to throw a scoreless gem, either.

As for Detroit’s pen, they own an ERA just under 4.00. The Guardians are averaging 7.33 runs per game across their last three, making the most of their offensive opportunities. 

With a total this low, there’s clear value in the Over. 

Guardians vs Tigers odds

• Moneyline: Guardians -117 | Tigers +113
• Run line: Guardians -1.5 (+144) | Tigers +1.5 (-150)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-108) | Under 7.5 (+104)

Guardians vs Tigers trend

The Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 35 away games (+13.95 Units / 37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Tigers.

How to watch Guardians vs Tigers and game info

Guardians vs Tigers latest injuries

Guardians vs Tigers weather

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Since joining the San Diego Padres at last year’s trade deadline, closer Mason Miller has appeared in 44 games, and had scoreless appearances in 41 of them. The Dodgers accounted for one of the other three games in Tuesday’s win at Petco Park, helped in large part by Miller’s errant pickoff throw to first base that moved Alex Call to first base with only one out.

That provided a prime scoring opportunity for the Dodgers, with Andy Pages at the plate. He fell behind 0-2 to Miller but kept battling. Here are the pitches in that plate appearance:

1. Slider (87.2 mph), foul (the errant pickoff attempt came after this pitch)
2. Fastball (100.8 mph) foul
3. Fastball (101.9 mph) ball
4. Fastball (101.8 mph) foul
5. Slider (89 mph) ball
6. Fastball (101.4 mph) ball
7. Slider (87 mph) foul
8. Slider (87.4 mph) foul
9. Fastball (101.5 mph) sacrifice fly to right field

Miller has thrown 80 pitches this season registering at least 101 mph this season, about 21.6 percent of this total pitches thrown. Just 11 of those 80 super-fast pitches were put into play. Only 20 of those 80 pitches were fouled off, with Spencer Torkelson the only other player to foul off two in the same plate appearance, on March 28 in the ninth inning. Tokelson worked a walk, but was stranded.

Pages fouled off three of those 101-mph pitches, plus another 100.8-mph pitch, part of his six fouls in a nine-pitch battle that ended with a game-winning sacrifice fly on another 101.5-mph fastball.

From manager Dave Roberts, per Senji Torrey at Dodger Insider:

“I think, at the end of the day, it was just fight,” said manager Dave Roberts. “It’s just me versus you. And it was him versus Mason Miller, and he wasn’t gonna lose that battle. Mason’s the best in the game right now. And Andy, he willed himself to do something productive in that at-bat.”

Freddie Freeman, who homered twice earlier in the game, had high praise for Pages, per Jack Harris of the California Post:

It was a different moment, however, that had the 17-year veteran so mesmerized.

Andy Pages, he declared, had just taken “one of the greatest at-bats I’ve ever seen in person.”

“We were all just like, ‘Wow,’” Freeman added.

…

“That at-bat,” Freeman reiterated, “was incredible.”

Judging by various Instagram story reshares Tuesday night of this clip, several other Dodgers were impressed, too.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, ranked first in the NL West with a 30-19 record, face the San Diego Padres, who are second in the NL West with a 29-19 record. The Los Angeles Dodgers are favored with a -190 moneyline compared to the San Diego Padres' +154. Starting pitchers are Shohei Ohtani for the Dodgers, with a 0.82 ERA, and Randy Vásquez for the Padres, with a 2.68 ERA.

How to watch Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres

• Date: Wednesday, May 20

• Time: 8:40 p.m. ET / 5:40 p.m. PT

• Where: PETCO Park, San Diego, CA

• TV Channels: Padres.TV Presented by UC San Diego Health, SportsNet LA

• Live Stream:ESPN+, MLB.TV | Follow on Yahoo Sports

Team records

• Los Angeles Dodgers: 30-19 (first in NL West)

• San Diego Padres: 29-19 (second in NL West)

Odds

• Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5

• Moneyline: San Diego Padres +154 / Los Angeles Dodgers -190

• Over/Under: 7.5

Starting pitchers

Los Angeles Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani (3-2, ERA: 0.82, K: 50, WHIP: 0.82)

San Diego Padres: Randy Vásquez (5-1, ERA: 2.68, K: 45, WHIP: 1.11)

Series: Game 3 of 3 (series tied)

Weather: 75°F at first pitch