Category: MLB

Maybe the Padres like facing the National League Central Division. 

San Diego took care of some unfinished business against one NL Central opponent this week, now they get the division’s heavyweight. 

The Padres swept the Cubs out of the NL Wild Card Series on Wednesday and head to Milwaukee for an NLDS matchup against the 103-win Brewers, the team with the best record in baseball this season. 

Despite their dominant regular season, the Brewers won’t be thrilled to see San Diego on Saturday. The Padres won four of the six meetings between the teams this season, including a three-game sweep at Petco Park in August. 

San Diego is also the hottest team in baseball over the last two months and went 18-6 in September before dismantling MLB’s highest-scoring offense in two games in the wild-card matchup.

If the Braves and Dodgers NLDS is billed as a classic David vs. Goliath matchup, then the Padres and Brewers is the unstoppable force meeting an immovable object. 

Milwaukee also went 18-6 in September and has had an identical number of wins as San Diego since the start of August with 38. This best-of-five collision is between the two hottest teams left standing. 

Game 1 is set for Saturday night at American Family Field, where the Brewers went 55-26, tied for the best home record in baseball this season. The Padres counter with a roster loaded with postseason scars and star power. Oh, and we didn’t even mention they have the most terrifying bullpen in the playoffs. 

The Post’s Michael J. Duarte takes a look at how the Padres and Brewers stack up this October:

At the plate

This is where Milwaukee quietly suffocates teams.

The Brewers led the majors in batting average (.258) and on-base percentage (.341), scoring 832 runs despite finishing near the bottom of baseball with 154 home runs. 

The Brewers don’t need to bludgeon you. They peck, scratch, walk, run and generally turn a pitching staff’s evening into a root canal appointment. 

Milwaukee also tied for the MLB lead by seeing 3.97 pitches per plate appearance. That kind of plate discipline is important in October, when knocking an elite starting pitcher out of the game can be as valuable as hitting a home run off them. 

Brice Turang has become the Brewers’ engine. He finished with an .816 OPS, 21 homers and 100 RBIs and then hit .361 with a .475 OBP in September. William Contreras drove in an MLB-best 24 runs during the final month. Jackson Chourio gives Milwaukee another dynamic threat near the top.

The Padres’ full-season .319 OBP doesn’t belong in the same neighborhood, but that number is increasingly misleading. Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, Xander Bogaerts and Ty France all surged late, and the Padres had baseball’s hottest offense in September before scoring 12 runs in their two-game domination of Chicago.

Most importantly, San Diego doesn’t strike out excessively. The Padres ranked 10th in MLB at avoiding strikeouts, a valuable commodity when October pitching starts throwing napalm.

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Edge: Brewers

Power

Here is where the Padres can change a game before the beer vendor finishes walking down the first aisle.

San Diego hit 183 homers to Milwaukee’s 154, with Manny Machado reaching 30, Merrill 26, Tatis 25 and France 21. Tatis’ season was especially bizarre: After going homerless for nearly two months, he hit 25 beginning May 30 and carried that heater into October with a leadoff blast against Chicago. Machado followed four pitches later. Bogaerts and Gavin Sheets also went deep for the Padres in the wild-card round.

The Padres also possess a particularly intriguing weapon against Jacob Misiorowski.

Nobody in baseball handled premium velocity better than San Diego. They led the majors with a .343 wOBA against fastballs of at least 96 mph. In September, that number exploded to .441. The Padres also tied for second in baseball in average bat speed at 72.8 mph. Milwaukee ranked third against 96-plus velocity at .325, so the Brewers aren’t exactly bringing a butter knife to this gunfight, either.

Still, Misiorowski isn’t merely another hard thrower. He is the soon-to-be NL Cy Young Award winner and a pitching lab experiment that escaped containment. His fastball routinely reaches triple digits, and he finished with a 1.80 ERA, 252 strikeouts, a 0.80 WHIP and a .157 opponents’ batting average — the lowest recorded by a starter.

The most irresistible matchup of Game 1 is baseball’s best high-velocity offense against perhaps baseball’s most violent fastball.

Edge: Padres

Projected Lineups

Padres

1. Fernando Tatis Jr., RF

2. Dustin Harris, LF

3. Manny Machado, 3B

4. Ty France, 1B

5. Jackson Merrill, CF

6. Xander Bogaerts, SS

7. Austin Hays, DH

8. Jake Cronenworth, 2B

9. Luis Campusano, C

Brewers

1. Jackson Chourio, LF

2. Brice Turang, 2B

3. William Contreras, C

4. Andrew Vaughn, 1B

5.  Christian Yelich, DH

6.  Sal Frelick, RF

7. Joey Ortiz, 3B

8. Garrett Mitchell, CF

9. Cooper Pratt, SS

In the field

On the diamond, Milwaukee has one of the best defensive second basemen in baseball in Turang, whose 23 defensive runs saved ranked second among all major-league position players. 

Rookie Cooper Pratt has been impressive at shortstop, and Joey Ortiz was excellent after shifting to third. Milwaukee finished with 62 defensive runs saved as a team.

The Padres’ infield might be older, but they aren’t statues. 

Machado remains magnificent at third and led the position with +8 Fielding Run Value. France produced +7 Outs Above Average at first, second only to Matt Olson among MLB first basemen. Bogaerts isn’t the shortstop he once was, but October isn’t foreign soil for a man with 56 career postseason games.

Jake Cronenworth versus Turang is the biggest mismatch. Cronenworth produced a career-worst .629 OPS in an injury-shortened season, while Turang became one of the sport’s most valuable second basemen.

Behind the plate, Contreras gives Milwaukee another advantage. He threw out 34.2% of attempted base stealers and supplied significantly more offensive certainty than San Diego’s three-headed catching arrangement of Campusano, Freddy Fermin and 20-year-old Ethan Salas.

Edge: Brewers

In the outfield

In the outfield the pendulum swings. 

Tatis is still one of baseball’s premier defensive right fielders, with two Gold Gloves and two Platinum Gloves already on his resume.  Put the glove together with 25 homers, 38 steals and his scorching finish, and there aren’t many players remaining in October capable of affecting a game in more ways.

Merrill gives San Diego another difference-maker in center. His .743 OPS was disappointing by his standards, but he still hit a career-high 26 homers, stole 27 bases and finished fourth among MLB center fielders with 4.2 fWAR.

Left field is San Diego’s soft spot after Ramón Laureano’s season-ending hip surgery, leaving Harris, Austin Hays, Samad Taylor and others to piece the position together.

Milwaukee is much more complete.

Chourio became the first player in MLB history with three 20-homer, 20-steal seasons before turning 23. Garrett Mitchell produced +7 OAA in center while posting a .354 OBP. Sal Frelick doesn’t bring much power, but he almost never swings through anything.

The Brewers are deeper, but the Padres have the two best outfielders in the series. 

Edge: Padres

On the basepaths

Don’t look away when either team gets somebody aboard. The Padres stole 164 bases during the regular season. Milwaukee stole 162.

San Diego’s Big 3 are Tatis (38), Merrill (27) and Bogaerts (22), but Milwaukee can answer with Chourio, Turang, David Hamilton, Pratt, Mitchell and enough team speed to turn a routine single into a traffic violation.

Contreras and Campusano both have strong throwing numbers, so neither club can run recklessly.

Edge: Even

Bench

Sheets already showed what San Diego’s bench can do when he came off it and blasted a two-run homer against the Cubs. Miguel Andujar gives the Padres a dangerous right-handed bat. Hays can start against certain matchups, and San Diego can mix and match at catcher with Campusano, Fermin and Salas.

That three-catcher construction is unconventional, but October rewards specialization.

Milwaukee counters with considerably more positional flexibility. Andrew Vaughn can supply a right-handed bat at first or DH. David Hamilton brings elite speed and can handle multiple infield spots. Gary Sánchez provides instant power at catcher or DH, while Luis Lara and Brandon Lockridge offer Pat Murphy additional outfield configurations depending on matchups.

Edge: Brewers

On the mound

Let’s start with the starting rotation. This is Milwaukee’s clearest advantage, but the chasm is not as wide as you think.

The Padres will give the baseball to Robbie Ray in Game 1 against Jacob Misiorowski, saving Michael King for Game 2 on Sunday against Logan Henderson.

Ray has plenty of October mileage and gives the Brewers a different look from the right-handers behind him, but his arrival in San Diego has been turbulent. He posted a 5.02 ERA after the trade and now gets the unenviable assignment of matching zeroes with the most overwhelming starting pitcher in baseball.

Misiorowski just authored one of the most outrageous seasons by a young starter in recent memory: 16-5 with a 1.80 ERA, 252 strikeouts, a 0.80 WHIP and a .157 opponents’ batting average.

That’s the mountain waiting for San Diego on Saturday night.

King returns on normal rest Sunday after carrying a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the Cubs in the NL Wild Card Series. He has become San Diego’s October ace, with a 2.05 career postseason ERA, and pushing him to Game 2 creates another enormous benefit: If this series reaches a winner-take-all Game 5, King can take the baseball on normal rest again.

Milwaukee will answer Sunday with Henderson, the 24-year-old right-hander who went 11-3 with a 2.47 ERA and has never allowed more than three runs in any of his first 23 major-league starts.

Nick Pivetta should follow in Game 3 at Petco Park. After missing nearly five months with a flexor strain, Pivetta has been excellent since returning, even if his wild-card start against Chicago lasted 3.1 innings. Pivetta was easily the ace of the Padres’ staff last season.

Game 4 is where both teams may begin emptying the junk drawer.

San Diego could return to Ray on short rest, use Walker Buehler or construct a bullpen game. Milwaukee has Robert Gasser, Dustin May and a collection of potential openers and bulk arms available depending on how the first three games unfold.

Edge: Brewers

If the Brewers’ strength is starting pitching, then the Padres is their bullpen. 

San Diego’s bullpen is a monster hiding under the bed. 

The Padres led MLB relievers with 8.9 fWAR and produced a major-league-best 3.33 xERA. Adrián Morejón gives manager Craig Stammen an elite left-handed setup option. Bradgley Rodriguez throws 98. Jason Adam is healthy again. Yuki Matsui provides another left-handed look. And then the bullpen doors open for Mason Miller, one of the best closers in all of baseball.

Miller struck out 129 batters in 70 innings — 16.6 per nine — while finishing in Statcast’s 100th percentile in xERA, expected batting average, fastball velocity, whiff percentage and strikeout percentage.

If San Diego leads after six, the Brewers may effectively have three outs left to save their evening.

Milwaukee’s bullpen was excellent, finishing with a 3.40 ERA. Trevor Megill saved 30 games with a career-best 0.89 WHIP. Abner Uribe has closer-quality stuff, Aaron Ashby gives Murphy a durable left-handed weapon, and DL Hall, JoJo Romero and others give the Brewers considerable matchup flexibility.

Most years, that would be enough to own this category. Not this year.

Edge: Padres

Manager

This might be the most fascinating managerial matchup of the Division Series.

Stammen is doing this in his first season as a major-league manager after replacing Mike Shildt. Instead of inheriting a cruise ship, he inherited a roster with an aging core, rotation uncertainty and enormous expectations.

Things got off to a rocky start through July, when Stammen said the team got together to have some “hard conversations.” But after that they caught fire in August and September and still managed to win 90 games. 

Then he navigated the wild-card round beautifully, trusting King deep into Game 1 and aggressively deploying his bullpen to finish Chicago in Game 2.

Across the diamond is a man San Diego knows quite well.

Murphy got his first major-league managing opportunity as the Padres’ interim skipper in 2015. A decade later, he has turned Milwaukee into a winning machine.

The back-to-back NL Manager of the Year has guided the Brewers to four consecutive NL Central titles, and this year’s 103 victories established a franchise record. His club isn’t constructed around a billion-dollar payroll or a lineup of future Hall of Famers. Milwaukee wins with development, defense, depth, matchups and an almost irritating refusal to beat itself.

Edge: Brewers

Intangibles

Milwaukee earned the right to put its feet up and rest a week while San Diego had to fight Chicago.

That gave Misiorowski, Henderson and the Brewers’ bullpen extra rest and allowed injured players such as Ortiz additional recovery time.

Normally, you’d hand Milwaukee the advantage and move along.

But the Padres aren’t exactly limping into the NLDS. They have been kicking down doors since August and have the best record in baseball over that time. They didn’t get to rest and probably wanted to keep playing considering how hot they’ve been. 

There is also something to be said for already having felt October’s pulse.

San Diego has played two elimination-style postseason games this week. Tatis has homered. Machado has homered. Bogaerts has delivered. King has dominated. Sheets has come off the bench cold and gone deep. Miller has already felt the ninth inning.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee hasn’t played since Sunday. 

Rest is valuable, but staying in a rhythm, especially the one the Padres have been in for the last two months, is better. 

Edge: Padres

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — In a rare session with reporters, Giancarlo Stanton declared himself “ready to go, however they need me.” 

The question the Yankees were set to ask among themselves Friday: Do they, indeed, need him for the AL Division Series? 

A remarkable comeback from three calf strains, which sidelined the slugger from late April until he was activated for the wild-card series, is in jeopardy. The Yankees, who carried just 10 pitchers with 16 position players in the best-of-three series against Boston, are considering 10-12 pitchers for the best-of-five ALDS against the Rays, manager Aaron Boone said. With more games, they may need more arms.

And against Tampa Bay rather than lefty-heavy Boston, the need for a righty who would only be used in pinch-hit scenarios lessens. Besides, it is at least possible Aaron Judge assumes that role if he can return to the field.

With rosters due Saturday morning before Game 1, Boone said Friday afternoon that the organization had not yet decided whether Stanton would remain active. 

Against the Red Sox, Boone came close to pinch-hitting Stanton, he has said, but did not pull the trigger in a couple of blowouts. On Friday, Stanton was asked if he would have preferred getting an at-bat so he could see real major league pitching for the first time since he suffered the initial calf strain on April 24. 

“I prefer to get two wins and be here now,” Stanton said. “Is it always good to get [at-bats] for anybody for their timing? Yes.” 

Stanton spoke in a media scrum for the first time since June — after his second calf strain and before a third that occurred in August — and declined to talk about how the “process was or the comeback” but offered: “I’m ready to help the team any way I can. … That’s all really I got to say about that.” 

The 36-year-old more commonly speaks with his bat, which owns a career .926 OPS with 18 home runs in 48 postseason games. 

He has worked his way into being, at the least, an option for the games he looks forward to the most and the games that one day could define his legacy. Stanton, like several prominent Yankees, does not have a World Series ring. 

“If there’s any time to erase a bad year, it’s in October,” Stanton said before taking batting practice at Tropicana Field. “So it’s the biggest opportunity to just show out for the city and do all we can do.” 

— Additional reporting by Greg Joyce 

Five weeks ago, Chris Sale was a problem for the Dodgers.

In a 1-0 win for the Braves at Truist Park, Sale pitched a complete-game shutout, striking out 11 batters over nine innings.

He allowed only five hits.

He didn’t walk a batter.

But the Dodgers won’t see Sale on the mound at Dodger Stadium on Saturday in Game 1 of their National League Division Series.

They might not see him on Sunday in Game 2, either.

Because Braves manager Walt Weiss made the baffling decision to turn to Sale with a four-run lead to close out the deciding game of an NL Wild Card Series against the Phillies, there’s a chance the Dodgers won’t have to face the former Cy Young Award winner until the third game of the best-of-five series.

“A lot’s going to depend on how Chris feels,” Weiss said.

With one of the top bullpens in baseball, the NL East champion Braves present a real threat to the Dodgers on paper.

Reality won’t be nearly as dramatic.

Defeating the Phillies came at an extreme cost for the Braves, who enter this series looking more like cannon fodder than a realistic challenger.

“The Phillies series took a lot out of us, as far as our pitching,” Weiss said.

That series stretched to three games, with the games played on consecutive days. Closer Raisel Iglesias, fireballer Didier Fuentes and left-hander Dylan Lee pitched on Tuesday and Wednesday, with Fuentes returning to pitch again in the series finale.

In their bullpen game on Thursday, the Braves used six pitchers, including Sale, who was entrusted to take down the last four outs of a four-run game two days after he pitched 6 ⅓ innings in a Game 1 win.

The way the Braves used their relievers in the wild-card matchup will handicap a bullpen that was one of the best of baseball in the regular season. 

“The advantage for us is we have an opportunity to not let their pitching staff come up for air,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said.

In fact, with Weiss saying that sidelined starters Martin Perez and Bryce Elder won’t return in this round, the Braves could have to resort to bullpen games in Games 1 and 2.

In retrospect, Sale was more than a proverbial nail in the coffin for the Phillies — he was closer to an atomic bomb. But if Sale’s eighth-inning entrance detonated the minuscule chances of a Phillies comeback, it might have also nuked the Braves’ attempt to upset the Dodgers.

If Sale doesn’t pitch until Game 3, he will be limited to one start in the NLDS. So will Tyler Mahle, the only other usable starting pitcher on the Braves’ roster.

But say Sale can pitch by Sunday. What will the 37-year-old Sale look like after pitching in relief on Thursday? In that game, Sale threw four pitches in the eighth inning, sat on the bench for a half-inning, then returned to the mound to throw 17 more pitches.

Pitching in Game 2 would make Sale available to start Game 5 on four days’ rest, but, again, how will Sale look at that point? If Sale takes the mound for a hypothetical fifth game, he would be starting opposite Tarik Skubal, who would be pitching on five days’ rest.

Don’t begrudge the Dodgers for this advantage. They earned it by securing one of the NL’s top two seeds, which earned them a bye in the wild-card round.

In 2021, the Dodgers won a then-franchise-record 106 games but had to play in a winner-take-all wild-card game because they were edged for the NL West title by the Giants. After beating the Cardinals on a walk-off home run in the wild-card game, the Dodgers were pushed to five games by the Giants in the NLDS. Max Scherzer closed out the last game of the NLDS, which affected him in the next round against the Braves. Scherzer lasted only 4 ⅓ innings in his Game 2 start and had to be scratched from his Game 6 assignment. 

The record shows the Dodgers were eliminated by the Braves that year, but the truth was the damage they sustained in the Giants series is what ended their postseason run. 

This time, the Dodgers are on the other side of the equation.

Zack Gelof is one of those athletes who only has one speed: full bore ahead. It’s part of what makes him an elite athlete and at times it makes it difficult for him to stay on the field. But there is also a difference between playing with “reckless abandon” and having “no regard for your body,” and hitting the ER because the other team’s stadium operations executives had no regard for your body.

In July, 2017 the A’s acquired Dustin Fowler from the New York Yankees as he was recovering from a serious knee injury, a rupture of his right patella tendon. In December, 2017, Fowler sued the Chicago White Sox, claiming negligence due to an unpadded, metal electrical box that was located in precisely the area where Fowler impacted the wall. Fowler’s lawsuit settled for an undisclosed amount of cash.

Now comes Gelof’s lawsuit filed against the Detroit Tigers after Gelof badly lacerated his leg on July 9 when his pursuit of a foul fly ball took him into the side wall — where instead of padding there was a stretch of metal wiring that sliced Gelof’s knee like a Veg-O-Matic and kept him out of action for a month.

Some injuries are preventable and many aren’t. Some mishaps are the result of foreseeable gross negligence and many are just plain bad luck. Stadium operators are obliged to notice clear safety hazards, and many hazards only reveal themselves when a fluky play exposes a formerly unknown truth.

The question in front of a judge or jury, first to be mediated by posturing attorneys, is whether Gelof’s injury was caused by a negligence that anyone could have, and should have, reasonably foreseen. The law doesn’t compensate you for bad luck like it does for bad faith.

Did the Tigers expressly have an obligation to put padding, or avoid putting a wire facing, in a part of the playing field a fielder might slide or crash into? Did Gelof have some obligation either to avoid going full tilt into a very visible wire structure or to notice the hazard during batting practice and bring it to someone’s attention?

Separately there is the question of “damages” as the two sides haggle about the “value” of the case. Certainly there was appreciable pain and suffering — that much was clear at the time of the collision as well as the fact that Gelof could not take the field in a big league game for 32 days.

But he was also paid while on the IL and rehab assignments, so there was no loss of income there. His future value, and how this injury did or did not affect it, is a pretty subjective question, but we do know that Gelof put up a 116 wRC+ before the injury and a very similar 112 wRC+ after.

One thing is for sure: Fowler’s case will be raised, by both sides, in conversations around Gelof’s chances of prevailing in his lawsuit and the value of any settlement. Fowler created precedent that informs comparable cases. And once again, here is an outfielder who was racing into foul territory when he bludgeoned himself on an exposed and unforgiving barrier to his pursuit.

What do you think are the material facts in Gelof’s case and who do they ultimately favor? In all likelihood this case, like the one before it, will settle and never go to trial and the settlement amount will not be made public. But if you were on a jury and were asked to rule on the merits, what information would most inform your verdict and what would that verdict look like? In the end, will Gelof get the 65th win of the season to bring vengeance upon the stadium where Oakland’s season was ended 20 years prior?

There are all the stars in this series — Mookie Betts, Matt Olson, Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr., Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Chris Sale, Tarik Skubal, Michael Harris II and more — and then there is the face of baseball around the world.

Major League Baseball wrapped a postseason advertisement around the front page of The Times this week. “OCTOBER STARTS TODAY,” the headline screamed.

Beneath those enormous letters, Shohei Ohtani smiled. Who else?

And so dozens of reporters crammed into a cramped room within Dodger Stadium on Friday afternoon, on the eve of the National League Division Series between the Dodgers and the Atlanta Braves, waiting for Ohtani to answer a few versions of “How are you?”

It’s not just about attracting casual fans to watch the icon whose face adorns everything from airplanes to skin care products. For the Dodgers and their fans, it’s about whether their most famous player can be a game-changer in October.

Read more:Nine concerns the Dodgers should have about facing the Braves in the NLDS

The Dodgers could have shut him down as a pitcher rather than let him continue to try to pitch through knee and biceps injuries. They didn’t, and that backfired.

The Dodgers could have shut him down as a hitter, not for the season but for a stint on the injured list. They didn’t. They gave him just a few days off, and that backfired.

Then the Dodgers did put him on the injured list, but activated him for the final five games of the regular season rather than give him extended rest for the playoffs, limiting his activity to controlled workouts.

That might backfire, or it might not, and the repercussions of the former could represent a significant hurdle in their quest for a third consecutive World Series championship. Giving Ohtani time off during the regular season would have carried no penalty; the Dodgers would have won the NL West with or without him.

If the Dodgers decide Ohtani needs a few days off now, they would face this unpleasant dilemma: play one man short, or put him on the injured list. Under MLB rules, a player put on the injured list during a postseason series must sit out the next series. So, if Ohtani starts wincing at the end of his swings during the NLDS, a stint on the injured list would mean he could not play again until the World Series — if the Dodgers get there.

Ohtani has not hit a home run since Aug. 18. Since then, he is batting .157, and he has struck out in 41% of his at-bats. In those final five games, he hit the ball hard in the first two, then hit ground balls in the final three. In the on-deck circle, he did not always take a swing.

In batting practice Friday, he hit lots of home runs.

The general sense of how Ohtani is feeling now: good enough.

Ohtani said he feels “really good” as compared to before he went on the injured list, but acknowledged he isn’t sure what he might need to do to address the injuries over the winter.

“As of now, it’s something I’m just going to have to manage,” he said through interpreter Will Ireton.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts offered this medical update: “Shohei’s not 100%, but he’s going to be in the lineup.”

Same for Freddie Freeman, who has not homered in a month. The difference, Roberts said, is how encouraged the manager was by Freeman’s workouts this week.

“With Shohei, I’m not so sure,” Roberts said. “I know that once the lights turn on, the postseason starts, the focus will be heightened. I expect good things. I really do. We just haven’t seen it enough to really — for me to forecast it.”

Read more:'I'm excited for it.' Tarik Skubal to start for Dodgers in NLDS Game 1

Ohtani plays when he says he can. After he tore up his left shoulder in Game 2 of the 2024 World Series, he had trainers tape the shoulder in place and took 11 at-bats over the final three games of the series. He had one hit, a single.

“I do pride myself on playing every day,” Ohtani said. “I do see it as an obligation as a professional to be on the field every single day.”

Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations, acknowledged recently that communication with Ohtani has been “awesome” but “fully sharing exactly how he’s feeling, maybe not as awesome.”

Said Friedman: “He’s not always the best reporter of how he feels. Freddie’s the same way. Clayton Kershaw. I’ve been around a lot of these guys that feel like their job is to be out there to help the team however they can, and sometimes will downplay some things that are bothering them. But again, it’s because he wants to help the team win.”

The Dodgers are talented enough that Ohtani not hitting well would not damage their chances as much as, say, Sale not pitching well for the Braves. In the NLDS and the first three games of the NLCS last October, Ohtani hit .103 with no home runs and struck out in 48% of his at-bats.

Read more:‘We are the team to beat.' How the Dodgers are preparing for showdown with Braves

In the NLCS clincher, he hit three home runs (and struck out 10 batters). The Dodgers could trade a few bad days from Ohtani for that one really good day.

In that MLB advertisement, the one that featured Ohtani, the league acknowledged that its screaming headline was not exactly accurate. The explanation also fits the Dodgers’ hopes of Ohtani starring in October.

The ad, after all, appeared on Sept. 29.

October starts today?

“Logic and reason would tell you otherwise,” the ad read. “But October isn’t about being reasonable.

“It’s about belief.”

Sign up for more Dodgers news with Dodgers Dugout. Delivered at the start of each series.

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

LOS ANGELES — The tears have stopped flowing.

The quivering voice, the nerves, the raw emotions have long been in check.

It will be just like any other postseason game, even on the road.

That, at least, is what Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman keeps telling himself.

The last time Freeman stepped on the playing field at Truist Park during the postseason, he was helping Atlanta win a World Series championship, Atlanta knocking off the Houston Astros in 2021 for its first title since 1995.

He was a homegrown hero, a crowd favorite, their biggest star. He believed he would be playing the rest of his career in Atlanta.

Instead, he was gone three months later when Atlanta stopped negotiating with him in free agency and turned to Matt Olson, acquiring Olson from the Oakland Athletics and quickly signing him to an eight-year, $168 million contract extension.

Freeman, who scrambled to find a team with only a few weeks remaining before the start of the season, wound up signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers, receiving a six-year, $162 million deal, and tearfully parting with the team he loved, and a fanbase that loved him right back.

Freeman, who broke down in tears several times when he first returned to Atlanta in 2022, no longer cries when the Dodgers play annually there, trying to treat it like any other city.

But this will be different.

These are the playoffs.

Freeman can end Atlanta’s fabulous comeback season with his bat, or Atlanta can stop the Dodgers’ bid to become the first National League team to win three consecutive World Series championships.

The MLB Postseason is in full swing and the Division Series are set:

• American League
  • (2) Cleveland Guardians vs. (6) Chicago White Sox
  • (1) Tampa Bay Rays vs. (4) New York Yankees
• National League
  • (1) Milwaukee Brewers vs. (4) San Diego Padres
  • (2) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. (3) Atlanta Braves

There are numerous former Rockies on these playoff rosters.

• White Sox
  • Drew Romo
  • Brenton Doyle
  • Randal Grichuk
• Rays
  • Ryan Vilade
• Yankees
  • Ryan McMahon
• Brewers
  • Antonio Senzatela
• Dodgers
  • Seth Halvorsen
• Braves
  • Brent Suter

So my question this evening is this: Which old friend(s) are you rooting for in the Division Series? Let us know in the comments!

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

Bryce Harper is expecting change in Philadelphia after another disappointing October.

The Phillies have gone three straight seasons without winning a playoff series after pushing the Diamondbacks to a seven-game series in the NLCS back in 2023.

But Harper asserts that next season will look different in Philly after yet another flop in early fall.

“Each year’s so different than the year before. I don’t really put stock into years before or what happened or anything else,” Harper said after being eliminated by the Braves. “This was a brand new team. Obviously, we had the guys that are part of that core group that we are.

“I’d imagine this team is going to look a lot different next year with the guys that are leaving this clubhouse. So, we’ll see.”

Since 2023, the Phillies have suffered NLDS exits in 2024 and 2025 before losing to the Braves in the wild-card round this week.

In 2026, Philadelphia finished with an 88-74 record and needed a Game 162 victory to secure its fifth consecutive postseason berth.

The Phillies had won at least 90 games in each of the prior three regular seasons.

Harper, a two-time MVP and nine-time All-Star, is signed with the team through 2031 and turns 34 in two weeks.

“You’re here to do business. You’re here to win games, and we didn’t do that,” Harper said after their 6-2 Game 3 loss in Atlanta.

Harper wasn’t fully on an island either.

Phillies starter Aaron Nola, who has been with the major-league club since 2015, also noted the team’s shortcomings, specifically honing in on everything not coming together at the right time this season.

“Obviously, we’d love to win a World Series with these guys. We’ve been together quite a while, and we’ve got a good clubhouse, and you know, good characters on this team,” Nola said. “We know what type of guys are in here. We know what type of players we have, and what we’re capable of.

“(We need to) kind of play good at the right time.”

Interim manager Don Mattingly also spoke about the team’s loss and what factored into it.

“You’d love to be able to set your pitching up and them be rested and all that kind of stuff,” said Mattingly, who exited his post as Phillies skipper on Friday. “But that’s not the way it went.

“We had to fight to get ourselves in, and to do what we had to do to get in, we had to do what we had to do basically every game in the series.”

LOS ANGELES — The 2026 National League Division Series is the sixth postseason matchup between the Dodgers and Braves, dating back to 1996, and the fourth playoff matchup between the two teams in the last nine years.

This doesn’t count when the Dodgers and Milwaukee Braves tied for the best record in the National League in 1959, and the Dodgers won a best-of-3 playoff for the pennant in two games, since those counted as regular season contests.

The Dodgers beat the Braves in the NLDS in 2013 and 2018, both in four games, then beat Atlanta in seven games in a classic 2020 NLCS, coming back from down three games to one.

Atlanta swept the Dodgers in the 1996 NLDS and beat the Dodgers in six games in the 2021 NLCS.

Let’s take a brief look back at each previous October tilt.

1996 NLDS: Braves 3, Dodgers 0

In the first few years of the Division Series, “home-field advantage” meant playing the first two games on the road before coming home for the final three. So the wild card Dodgers were home to start off against the 96-win Braves, but it didn’t affect Atlanta much.

The Braves won two one-run games at Dodger Stadium, with John Smoltz allowing a run in nine innings of Game 1 before Javy López homered off of Antonio Osuna in the 10th inning. Greg Maddux allowed two unearned runs in seven innings of Game 2, then the Braves cruised in Atlanta in Game 3 to complete the sweep.

2013 NLDS: Dodgers 3, Braves 1

Juan Uribe was terrible in the first two years of his Dodgers contract, but turned things around in 2013. Even when he failed, he came up aces that year, including bunting foul twice down a run with Yasiel Puig on second base and nobody out in the eighth inning. Forced to swing, Uribe hit a two-run home run off David Carpenter while Craig Kimbrel watched from the visiting bullpen, sending the Dodgers to the NLCS.

2018 NLDS: Dodgers 3, Braves 1

Hyun-jin Ryu (seven innings in Game 1) and Clayton Kershaw (eight innings in Game 2) did the heavy lifting in two shutout wins in Los Angeles, then the Dodgers closed out in four games in Atlanta. Ronald Acuña Jr. hit a grand slam off Walker Buehler to win Game 3 for the Braves, a moment Buehler has cited multiple times as helping him learn how to deal with failure and embrace pressure situations going forward.

That Game 3 win in Atlanta was the last Braves win in a game facing elimination before Thursday’s wild card win over the Phillies in Game 3.

2020 NLCS: Dodgers 4, Braves 3

The Dodgers erased a 3-1 series deficit at Globe Life Field in Texas. Will Smith homered off Will Smith to key a Game 5 win, and Cody Bellinger hit the pennant-winning home run in Game 7, and dislocated his shoulder in the celebration.

2021 NLCS: Braves 4, Dodgers 2

The Dodgers three healthy Cy Young Award-vote-getting starting pitchers broken down by the NLCS, with Max Scherzer unable to pitch in the series at all. Eddie Rosario was Superman, hitting a robust .560/.607/1.040 with three home runs to win NLCS MVP.

When it comes to Shohei Ohtani’s health, the Dodgers have plenty of hope — but few precise expectations.

That, at least, was the way manager Dave Roberts framed his superstar’s status on the eve of the National League Division Series on Friday, saying he was hopeful Ohtani would play well after battling right arm and left knee injuries during the second half of the season, but also acknowledging that he was “not so sure” about exactly what the slugger would be able to provide.

“I know that once the lights turn on, the postseason starts, [his] focus will be heightened,” Roberts said. “I expect good things. I really do. We just haven’t seen it enough really for me to forecast it.”

Indeed, as it has been for much of the last several months, Ohtani’s health remains a major question mark at the outset of the Dodgers’ pursuit of a third straight World Series.

By all accounts, the 32-year-old made progress during the bye week the team had to begin the playoffs.

While addressing reporters on Friday for the first time since before going on the injured list in mid-September — when his injuries had become so bad he was showing visible signs of pain at the plate — Ohtani insisted his ailments had “gotten much better” and that the past few days had been “productive” for his previously slumping swing.

“I think my swing has gotten better,” he said in Japanese. “If I can make solid adjustments today, I think I can go into tomorrow in sufficient condition.”

However, Roberts also reiterated that the four-time MVP is “not 100%” following an 11-for-70 slump in his final 18 games of the regular season (the last five of which came after he returned from the IL last week).

Ohtani, meanwhile, described his injuries as something he will have to continue to manage during the playoffs, unsure if further treatment will be needed in the offseason.

During the Japanese portion of his news conference, he even revealed that, during his stint on the injured list, he avoided holding his young daughter with his aching right arm.

“I was able to hold my daughter using my left arm,” he said.

Ohtani’s injuries have already robbed him of his two-way role this October, limiting him to hitting-only duties since early July.

Now, the team can only hope his offensive production isn’t diminished this postseason, either, hardly a guarantee given the way he looked for much of the last two months at the plate.

“The physical part, I think, he’s kind of moving past that,” hitting coach Aaron Bates said. “Now it’s just gaining the timing of different speeds and when he wants to get his move off, that sort of thing. Kind of the usual stuff that hitters go through, as opposed to trying to cheat [to pitches] because the physical components are limiting them.”

During the club’s bye week workouts, Ohtani took batting practice on the field multiple times — typically a rarity for him — and even sent a couple balls nearly to the outfield scoreboards, according to Bates.

“It was as good as I’ve seen it this year,” Bates said, “as far as just the way the ball was coming off [the bat].”

He also got live at-bats in the team’s intrasquad scrimmages, including a couple matchups against Yoshinobu Yamamoto on Wednesday. 

“Yoshi won the matchup,” Roberts joked, but Ohtani at the very least didn’t strike out.

Whether that will be enough for Ohtani to truly turn the corner, however, remains to be seen.

For the one intrasquad scrimmage reporters were allowed to observe on Thursday, Ohtani was nowhere to be seen (staying back in the clubhouse and indoor batting cages to get his work in instead).

Ohtani himself also failed to offer much of an expectation for how he might perform this October, saying only: “I think I can get closer to the results I want if I can adjust to the atmosphere of the postseason.”

For now, such hopes will have to suffice.

Only when Game 1 of the NLDS begins on Saturday afternoon will Ohtani and the Dodgers know exactly where he is at.

There are still several questions to be answered about who will star for the Yankees in the American League Division Series against the Rays.

Aaron Boone met with the media during Friday’s workout day and shared crumbs of information on questionable players, including Aaron Judge and Ryan Weathers. After taking some reps during batting practice and taking some swings in the cage, Judge is still being considered to make the roster according to the Yankees manager.

The Pinstripe Alley Feed appeared divided on the subject, with some believing that he’ll make the roster and appear as a pinch-hitter. The majority, as of Friday, voted that the Yankees captain won’t make it this time.

As for the lefty who’s been on the IL since late August with a left forearm flexor strain, Boone mentioned that he “expects Weathers to be available,” but admittedly hasn’t made any official decisions as of yet.

Let’s begin with dissecting the prospective starting rotation. Boone confirmed that Gerrit Cole will get the start for Game 1, which was expected since the Yankees took care of business against Boston in a two-game sweep. He’ll be making his first postseason start for the Yankees since 2024, as he missed the majority of last season due to Tommy John surgery.

Cam Schlittler, who dominated the Red Sox in the Wild Card Series, is reportedly expected to start in Game 2. The Yankees’ ace was his dominant self as he struck out 10 in 6.1 innings. Ultimately, if it comes down to the wire, it wouldn’t be surprising if he also got the start for Game 5.

Then there’s Max Fried, who earned the win that secured the Yankees’ slot in the Division Series. He’ll likely be an option to start Game 3 in time for the Yankees’ return to the Bronx. Boone also mentioned that Carlos Rodón could get the start for either Game 3 or Game 4, if needed. We’ll almost definitely see him in a relief role if he doesn’t end up in a starting role.

The Yankees made Wild Card Series history, having just 10 pitchers and 16 position players make the roster, and it worked out well in the end. However, will history repeat itself in the ALDS? Brent Headrick, Paul Blackburn, and Will Warren will certainly be on the staff, but it’d be interesting to see Weathers in the mix if he becomes available. Ryan Yarbrough also made the Wild Card Series roster but didn’t make an appearance against Boston. The question is: Can the Yankees pull off the same feat in the Division Series with just 10 pitchers?

Moving on to the position players, there are quite a few impressive younger guys who made an impact in the Wild Card Series. George Lombard Jr., who went a combined 4-for-8 in the series with three runs, shined in the demolition of Boston’s playoff hopes. Even before the Yankees clinched their 61st postseason berth, some went as far to say that his swing reminds them of Yankees legend Derek Jeter. He also proved himself reliable on defense, which is a promising sign for his future at the position.

After getting the start in both games of the Wild Card Series, it’s also clear that Spencer Jones has earned his spot in the lineup. He recorded two hits and three runs combined in his first career postseason appearances and was flexible defensively, as he played right field in Game 2 while Trent Grisham retook his spot in center.

Grisham, on the other hand, made his return to the order on Wednesday after being sidelined for most of September with a hamstring injury. It would be surprising if he didn’t make the roster, given how compromised he looked in his brief time in the outfield, but that doesn’t seem likely since Boone seems to be relying on more position player options than not.

One of the larger unanswered questions is whether Giancarlo Stanton will be an option to face Tampa Bay. He’ll likely make it on as a pinch-hitter, especially since he made the roster for the Wild Card Series. With Ben Rice as DH and either Paul Goldschmidt or Luis García Jr. at first and Austin Wells behind the plate, there’s not much room for Stanton to squeeze into the starting lineup.

What else is there to say about Rice other than the fact that he’s the Yankees’ most productive hitter without Aaron Judge? There’s no doubt that if he keeps up his hot streak, he’ll have the Rays’ starting rotation quivering at the bump.

The Yankees will most likely have Jazz Chisholm Jr. play second and have the option to start either Anthony Volpe, Amed Rosario, or José Caballero at third. Volpe got the start at second in Game 1, and went 1-for-3 against Boston. In the locker room celebrations that followed the annihilation of the Red Sox on Wednesday night, Rice called Volpe a “menace” with a champagne bottle.

Rosario didn’t produce offensively during his Game 1 start of the Wild Card Series, but he did draw a walk after a successful ABS challenge that put Lombard Jr. in scoring position in the fourth. It’s unclear whether he’s poised to make the postseason roster over options such as Volpe and Caballero, who the latter of whom remained on the bench against the Boston.

It’s difficult to imagine that Ali Sánchez will start over Austin Wells, who went 3-for-6 in the series with three runs. Sánchez will be included on the roster as a backup.

One thing’s for sure: Cody Bellinger will be easy to count on in the field and is poised to make an impact at the plate against the Rays. He proved himself after he instantly made the Red Sox regret walking Rice in the sixth inning on Wednesday night, crushing a 3-run homer that put the Yankees ahead 8-1.

The Yankees’ official ALDS roster is expected to be released on Saturday ahead of Game 1 of the series in Tampa. Until then, Yankees fans can only hope for the best and brace for Boone’s decisions to come.

Here are five things to know about the regular-season series between the Yankees and Rays, which saw Tampa Bay win seven of 13 games, as they meet in the ALDS: 

1. Rice’s dominance 

If Ben Rice becomes the centerpiece of the lineup again in the ALDS, depending on the status of Aaron Judge, the Yankees might find some extra comfort in that. Rice absolutely crushed the Rays during the regular season. Among teams Rice played at least five times, he recorded his third-highest OPS (1.320) against Tampa Bay.

He finished with seven homers and 12 RBIs, too, and was perhaps the Yankees’ most consistent hitter against the Rays outside of José Caballero (eight RBIs in 13 games) and Ryan McMahon (seven RBIs, eight hits in 10 games). 

2. Containing Caminero 

Junior Caminero became the youngest player since at least 1900 to homer in six straight games this year, and he finished his second full MLB season with 42 home runs. But against the Yankees, he managed just one homer and 10 hits, striking out 10 times and cobbling together a .565 OPS. 

3. Turf monster 

The Yankees went 2-5 at Tropicana Field this season, including a sweep back in April, and will need to win at least one game at the climate-controlled stadium to advance. They were outscored by a combined nine runs in those games, but it underscored an inability to win at the venue — a 79-95 record since the start of the 2006 season — that must change at least once. 

4. Starting point 

The Yankees received strong starting pitching against Tampa Bay this year, at least with rotation names — so excluding Luis Gil, Ryan Weathers and Paul Blackburn — who will get the ball to start an ALDS game. Cam Schlittler, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón and Max Fried pitched to a 2.75 ERA across nine starts, allowing just 17 earned runs across 55 ²/₃ innings. Fried, Schlittler and Rodón all tossed at least eight innings in one outing, too. 

5. Bellinger’s struggles 

Unlike Rice, Cody Bellinger never found a rhythm at the plate against the Rays, striking out 13 times in his 47 at-bats (27.7 percent) — compared to just 76 in his other 449 at-bats in the regular season (16.9 percent) — and recording a .522 OPS.

Happy Victory Friday, Braves Country.

The thing that tickles me about the photo above is the bespoke “Let It Fly / Wild Card Won” sticker on that champagne bottle.

It’s been a beautiful, mostly stress-free day of enjoying the satisfaction of last night’s cathartic win and all the content that came with it. For example, did you see the BravesVision crew’s reaction to Mike’s homer?

BravesVision and Braves social media channels also have snippets of interviews in the champagne celebration, the pressers, and more. My favorite moment changes every hour, but right now it’s either Dubie being double-goggled up or Wiley’s absolute disregard for his own body and safety by not donning any protecting gear.

Anyways, more to come from us on the Divisonal Series that kicks off tomorrow. Who do you got for Padres/Brewers, White Sox/Guardians, and Yankees/Rays?

But the floor is yours tonight to speculate on the Braves’ NLDS roster, pitching plans, keys to beating LA, and more. I’ll leave you with this incredible field view and crowd reaction to Money Mike’s ridiculous(ly beautiful) homer.

Here are five things to know about the Rays as the Yankees get ready to open the 2026 ALDS in St. Petersburg: 

1. Delicate balance 

Drew Rasmussen, who will start Game 1, has posted an impressive 1.81 ERA in 10 career starts — and 11 games — against the Yankees. He also has overcome a number of major elbow injuries to get to this point. Rasmussen became an unlikely success story after two Tommy John surgeries (2016 and ’17), and he underwent an internal brace procedure in 2023. 

2. Getting the boot 

Rays All-Star Nick Martinez (3.10 ERA in 31 starts) spent three years at Fordham as a relief pitcher and infielder, and he was actually kicked out of Yankee Stadium the last time Martinez went as a fan. The Rams’ practice had been canceled that day. “Might’ve had a few too many adult beverages,” Martinez told reporters earlier this year. Next time he went to Yankee Stadium, it was as a major league pitcher. 

3. Other local ties 

Kevin Cash might’ve had his first World Series ring as a manager if he left Blake Snell in six years ago, but he actually earned one as a player for the Yankees’ 2009 title despite appearing in just 10 games. Cash, who also got a ring in 2007 with Boston, had been released by the Yankees in September. 

4. Closing time 

Tampa Bay’s Bryan Baker tied for the MLB lead with 41 regular-season saves, and the Rays also might have been the league’s best closing team this season. They won 64 percent of their one-run games (25-14) — the best in MLB. 

5. Second chance 

Lefty Cam Booser (1.98 ERA in 42 appearances) might get some high-leverage matchups in the ALDS, but he actually initially retired back in 2017. In high school, he broke his femur and fractured a vertebra, according to The Athletic. He underwent Tommy John surgery in college, tore his labrum with the Twins and broke a bone in his back while biking when a car hit him.

He was also suspended for 50 games in 2015 after testing positive for marijuana. He reportedly joined a carpenters union and worked in construction following retirement before beginning to claw his way back with an independent team in 2021.

The Dodgers’ biggest strength might lead them to their biggest flaw during the most critical part of the season.

The strength? The starting pitching. The flaw? Their bullpen. The reason? A brutal heat wave that is set to hit California this weekend.

When Tarik Skubal takes the mound for Game 1 of the NLDS against the Braves at 1 p.m. Saturday, it’s expected to be 100 degrees.

Saturday is expected to be the hottest day of the heat wave. Temperatures are predicted to reach the high 90s during the rest of the week.

The harsh conditions aren’t expected to be as much of a factor in Game 2, with first pitch set for 5 p.m. Sunday.

But for Skubal, 29, the heat wave raises the question of low long he will be able to go.

According to a study by Jyh-How Huang, Yung-Chin Chiu and Chen-Kang Chang from the National Library of Medicine, when pitchers and hitters are playing in an extremely hot environment, there is an increase in slugging percentage, isolated power, walks and home runs.

The Brain Cooler wrote that extreme heat conditions can affect pitchers’ performances because they may struggle with grip and control of the baseball. They also added that players’ health can be affected because they may play with an increased heart rate, sweating and fluid loss — all of which can lead to dehydration.

Skubal’s play style could be a blessing and a curse this weekend. Known as one of the more prominent power pitchers in the game, Skubal could find himself exhausting early if he relies heavily on his fastball.

Last season, he threw it 38% of the time, topping out at 100 mph.

Aside from the challenging conditions, the Braves present another daunting task.

Atlanta finished the regular season fifth in the National League for slugging percentage (.409) and tied with the Dodgers at fourth for home runs (204).

Matt Olson led the Braves with a .502 slugging percentage and 41 homers. Behind him in slugging were Michael Harris (.491) and Drake Baldwin (.459).

The Dodgers are expected to have an early advantage against the Braves, who used a lot of their rotation in a three-game NL wild-card series against the Phillies.

If Atlanta manages to knock out Skubal early, it might level the playing field.

Los Angeles’ bullpen has been the weakest link in its star-studded cast this season. FanGraphs had its bullpen finishing with a 3.74 team ERA, a 9.9 walk percentage and an HR/9 of 0.96.