Good morning! It’s Monday, which sucks. And it’s the first Monday without Red Sox baseball since March, which sucks even more. But one thing I’m fond of reminding people is that baseball exists beyond the confines of the Major Leagues.
The Yomiuri Giants finished the NPB regular season just 2 games behind their bitter rivals, the Hanshin Tigers, for the Central League pennant. The Giants are the most successful club in Japanese history, based in the country’s biggest city, Tokyo. The Tigers hail from Japan’s “second city” of Osaka, have a rabid fanbase that fills a historic and ancient old ballpark, and suffered through the “Curse of Colonel Sanders” — a championship drought that lasted from 1985 through 2003 and was said to be the result of Tigers fans throwing a statue of the KFC brand ambassador into a canal while celebrating the ‘85 win. For these reasons, the Giants-Tigers rivalry is often compared to Red Sox-Yankees and, frankly, I would like to see Sox fans take this comparison even further by jumping into Fort Point Channel after big wins, the way the Tigers fans do:
Scenes from Dotonbori, Osaka 🇯🇵 after the Hanshin Tigers clinched the Central League pennant for the second straight year. pic.twitter.com/UZJFq9vNys
But despite the parallels between the Sox and Tigers, Sox fans may want to pull for the Giants as the playoffs get under way. That’s because the Giants are charging into the postseason behind the bat of Bobby Dalbec.
At the age of 31, Bobby Bombs finally turned back to the clock to his rookie year. Look how close these stat lines are:
WASHINGTON, DC - SEPTEMBER 27: Members of the Washington Nationals celebrate after the Washington Nationals defeated the New York Mets at Nationals Park on Sunday, September 27, 2026 in Washington, District of Columbia. (Photo by Alyssa McDaniel/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
To finish the season, the Washington Nationals went 39-42 at home and 38-43 on the road. Those are similar numbers and on the surface, there does not seem like much to talk about here. However, when you dive deeper, these splits actually become quite fascinating. It was a tale of two halves for the Nationals.
At the start of the season, the Nationals were a very bad home team. Since the Nats were in the Wild Card mix and above .500, we tend to look back at the first 4 months of the season with rose tinted glasses. However, the Nats really struggled at home during that time.
On July 24th, the Nats fell to 20-32 at Nationals Park, the worst home record in all of baseball at the time. Yet, they were still a .500 team because of what they did on the road. For a large portion of the season, the Nationals were road warriors.
Nats have the worst home record in baseball at 20-32
The start of the season was even more brutal. In April, it felt like they could not buy a win at home. On May 2nd, they dropped to 3-12 at Nationals Park. Whenever the Nats got momentum from a strong road trip, it felt like that would all be squandered with flat performances at home.
However, at the end of the season, the Nats finished with a better record at home than on the road. So what on earth happened here? That is what I want to explore. I am going to look at the data and come up with some potential reasons.
Before the All-Star break, the Nats were 28-18 on the road and 20-31 at home. That totally flipped in the second half, where the Nats went 19-11 at home and a miserable 10-25 away from Nationals Park.
The most obvious explanation for me is just variance. In a 162 game season, there is a lot of noise, but at the end of the day, things tend to even out. Whenever I asked Blake Butera about the poor home record at the beginning of the season, he was not happy about it, but he did not think there was some major underlying issue. Now that the season is over, it looks like things just balanced out.
However, the huge swings were very strange to watch. There was a stretch in the second half where the Nats went 2-21 on the road. We can talk about variance all we want, but something like that cannot happen again. In August and early September, the team just looked totally lifeless away from home.
It should be mentioned that they did face a lot of tough road competition in that stretch. That west coast trip against the Dodgers and Padres was brutal. The Nats lost 7 straight, and it felt like rock bottom. However, I did not think the Nats were playing awful baseball in most of those games.
Those were just two of the hottest teams in baseball playing at home. They took advantage of the Nats weak bullpen and staged a lot of comebacks. It did not look like August where the team was totally lifeless. At the end of the day, it was 7 L’s though. In the first half, the Nats found a way to win road games, but not so much after the break.
On the flip side, the Nationals really found their footing in front of the home crowd down the stretch. In my opinion, the biggest reason for that was improved clutch hitting. One of the major storylines for most of the season was the Nats inability to get a walkoff.
For such a potent offense, the Nats were weirdly feeble late in the game at home. There were a lot of times where the Nats just rolled over after a lead was blown. They did not get the first walk-off of the season until August 29th when Dylan Crews smacked a single into right to send the fans home happy.
After that moment, it felt like the Nats had a lot of big hits late in games at home. Harry Ford got a walk-off hit of his own a couple weeks later. However, it was more than just walk-offs. When the Nats fell behind, the offense was ready to answer.
Even though the Nats actually did not score a ton of runs in September, they were able to get the big hit. That series against the Angels saw the Nats answer over and over. Blake Butera talked a lot about how resilient his team was, and that was an example.
For most of the season, the Nats were resilient, but usually not within games. The way Butera’s team showed resilience was coming back from brutal losses like nothing happened the next day. However, for a lot of the season, they were shellshocked while the blown lead was happening, especially at home.
Heading into next season, I hope the Nats show that in game resilience we saw in September. If they are able to do that, it will go a long way. Winning on the margins is how the Nats will be able to take that next step. We saw that on the road in the first half and at home in the second.
The goal for 2027 should be to string that together and find true consistency. I think this rollercoaster season will be a good learning experience for the guys. They are now battle tested and ready to become a more stable team moving forward. There were a lot of volatile swings this year. In order to take the next step, we will need to see less volatility and more consistency.
MESA, AZ - MARCH 22: Breyson Guedez #77 of the Athletics rounds the bases after hitting a two-run home run in the third inning during the game between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Athletics at Hohokam Stadium on Sunday, March 22, 2026 in Mesa, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Good morning A’s fans and welcome to another week!
Our second without A’s games. It’s starting to set in and I already miss our boys in Green & Gold. At least we still have the playoffs to get us by during these early days of the offseason.
Meanwhile the Arizona Fall League has gotten underway and the A’s have a few interesting names getting in some extra work right now. These are the guys that need as many reps as possible to help themselves rise the ranks and reach the majors.
One of those names is catching prospect Davis Diaz. An eighth round pick back in 2024, Diaz has steadily ascended the minor league ladder and topped out at Triple-A last year. Considered a top-20 prospect in the system, Diaz got off to a good start in his AFL debut, hitting a two-run home run:
Athletics No. 19 prospect Davis Diaz clears the fence in Mesa with a go-ahead, two-run shot! pic.twitter.com/P0MIMp7oeg
— MLB's Arizona Fall League (@MLBazFallLeague) October 5, 2026
The catcher wasn’t the only big name that had a strong start to his AFL season. Left-handed pitcher Grant Richardson took the mound last night and looked fantastic, firing off two strong innings that featured five punch outs. It wasn’t without its warts as he gave up a run but the strikeouts are always a positive sign to see.
A’s LHP Grant Richardson had a stellar outing tonight in his AFL debut. Went 2 IP with 5K, 2 hits and 1 run
FB sat 93-95, topped 96. Generated a ton of whiffs with his slider(8 whiffs/11 swings)
The A’s prospects playing in the AFL overall had a great day yesterday as all of them had successful outings. Outfielder Breyson Guedez, considered a top prospect in the system in his own right, had a quiet 2-for-3 day with a walk. And another lefty in Tucker Novotny had a scoreless appearance that saw him pitch three shutout frames with just one hit allowed.
A’S IN THE AFL TODAY (10/4) C Davis Diaz: 2-2, HR, 2 BB, 2 RBI RF Breyson Guedez: 2-3, BB LHP Grant Richardson: 2 IP/2 H/1 ER/2 BB/5 K LHP Tucker Novotny: 3 IP/1 H/0 ER/0 BB/4 K Mesa Solar Sox win 4-3
— Bill Moriarity – A's Farm (@AthleticsFarm) October 5, 2026
None of these guys are expected to play any sort of role next year but all of them could become options a bit further down the line. Guedez in particular is a highly-rated prospect, topping out at #9 on MLB.com’s rankings of the A’s top prospects. So far the 19-year-old is 2-for-8 and likely ticketed to start next year at Double-A.
Meanwhile it’s been all quiet on the GM front. Presumably the team has conducted at least the first round of interviews and whittled the initial list, but they’ve done a good job of keeping any news or rumors from leaking out. The end-of-season deadline is long past but surely the club won’t wait another month and let the World Series end. We’re all waiting to hear any tidbit of news regarding who is next in line to lead the A’s. Could drop at any moment.
First game is in a few hours. Have a great start to your week everyone!
C: Shea Langeliers (if he survives the offseason) 1B: Nick Kurtz 2B: Joshua Kuroda-Grauer / Leo De Vries (if he comes up) 3B: Zack Gelof SS: Jacob Wilson LF: Tyler Soderstrom CF: Henry Bolte RF: Lawrence Butler DH: Brent Rooker
CLEVELAND, OHIO - OCTOBER 03: Manager Stephen Vogt #12 of the Cleveland Guardians speaks to the media after game one of the American League Division Series against the Chicago White Sox at Progressive Field on October 03, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. The White Sox defeated the Guardians 3-0. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Guardians will try to beat the White Sox again in game two of the ALDS this afternoon at 5PM.
In doing so, they will need to solve Sean Burke who has a 1.04 ERA against them this year. And, Gavin Williams will have to handle a tough Chicago lineup.
Zack Meisel of the Athletic wrote about the Guardians’ mindset entering game two.
Around MLB:
The Braves beat the Dodgers to tie up their NLDS and the Brewers walked off the Padres to go up 2 game to none in their NLDS.
Two games from being eliminated in the MLB playoffs, the Atlanta Braves had a difficult decision to make.
Do they bring back ace Chris Sale on short rest to start Game 2 of the National League division series? Or do they go back to the well with a bullpen game and hope a 32-year-old journeyman can pitch the game of his life … again?
Manager Walt Weiss decided to roll the dice. And left-hander Ray Kerr delivered.
As he did just three days earlier in the deciding game of Atlanta's wild-card series against the Philadelphia Phillies, Kerr came through with a masterful performance. He shut out the powerful Los Angeles Dodgers for 2 ⅔ innings, setting the tone for a 3-2 Braves win that evened the series at one game apiece.
"He did it again for us. Just amazing," Weiss gushed afterward. "There always seems to be some unsung heroes in the postseason. Yeah, Ray's definitely one of them."
For Kerr, it brought confirmation that his hard work to make it all the way back to the majors was worth it.
Before he took the mound in Game 3 of the NL wild-card series against the Phillies, even the most diehard baseball fans knew very little about Kerr.
He missed the entire 2025 season and didn't even appear in a game this season until mid-August due to his recovery from Tommy John surgery. After toiling on the back fields of the Braves' spring training facility in Florida for two full years, he made it back to the majors as one of the last arms in the bullpen.
Kerr appeared in nine regular-season games down the stretch, compiling an impressive 1.47 ERA in 18 ⅓ innings – good enough to be included on the postseason roster. And after not pitching in the first two games of the wild-card series, he got the call to open Game 3 with the Braves' season on the line.
Kerr was brilliant, shutting out the Phillies on one hit for 3 ⅓ innings as the Braves prevailed. With Sale needed to get the final four outs in the 6-2 win, Weiss made the decision to give his ace two extra days of rest and have him start NLDS Game 3 against the Dodgers.
That made Kerr the logical choice to serve as the opener on Sunday.
"Ray Kerr is amazing, man. He did it again and again," Weiss said. "I thought it would be a shorter leash tonight because 47 pitches, two days off, we hadn't done anything like that. But same thing, he was throwing well. So I went as long as I felt like we could with Ray because he's throwing the ball so well."
The lefty blanked the Dodgers on two hits and a walk in his 2 ⅔ innings. Five more Braves pitchers followed to close out the 3-2 win.
"It was kind of similar to what he did in the wild card series," catcher Drake Baldwin said of Kerr. "He goes out there, and he just kind of does what he does. It says a lot about him. He's very poised out there, confident in what he does."
Who is Ray Kerr?
The idea that Kerr would be on a major league baseball mound, pitching against the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers would have been an impossible dream back in high school.
As a profile in the Athletic describes, Kerr grew up in foster care with his mother absent and his father in and out of prison. He spent a good part of his teenage years in Reno, Nevada, working at a convenience store while he continued to hone his pitching skills.
He pitched at two different community colleges in California, played in the Alaska Baseball League, and eventually caught the eye of a minor league scout with the Seattle Mariners. After signing with the Mariners and making it all the way to Class AAA, Kerr was traded to the San Diego Padres after the 2021 season.
Finally reaching the majors the following season at age 27, he was traded again in 2024 to the Braves.
Then came the elbow problems. After just 10 appearances with Atlanta, Kerr underwent Tommy John surgery that June.
He didn't make it back to the majors until Aug. 17, 2026.
That long road back paid off with stellar performances in his first two playoff appearances. Now, his heroics could help the Braves knock off the two-time defending World Series champions.
"I think just kind of how our bullpen showed out says a lot about us," Baldwin said, "and especially when we have some starters lined up for the next two games back in Atlanta. I think it kind of instills some confidence in us and gives us some momentum going back to Atlanta as well."
Yes, the Yankees trail in the ALDS against the Rays. But in Game 2, they have the best possible path to getting even in the best-of-five series, at least when their guy is on the mound.
Presumptive AL Cy Young Award winner Cam Schlittler is starting for the Yanks at Tropicana Field and he’s in the process of authoring a postseason resume for the ages -- so, obviously, the ace is one of our three things to watch as the series resumes Monday night.
Cam on cam
Schlittler is in a big spot, since dropping the first two games to the Rays would put the Yanks on the precipice of elimination. He seems equipped to handle such circumstances, however, considering his domination of the Red Sox in a win-or-go-home game in last year’s Wild Card Series, his obliteration of them in Game 1 this year, and his postseason resume as a whole -- 0.87 ERA, 24-1 K/BB ratio in 20.2 innings pitched.
For whatever it’s worth, Schlittler has been even better on the road this season than at Yankee Stadium, fashioning a 1.16 ERA in away games versus 2.98 at home -- at the Trop, it was 2.77 in two starts. Opponents had an OPS nearly 200 points lower against Schlittler in road games (.456 vs. .649).
Junior Caminero is the only Rays player with a home run off Schlittler -- in the righty's third career start. Taylor Walls and Richie Palacios each have three hits against him. But Schlittler has been tough on Yandy Díaz (2-for-13, five strikeouts) and Jonathan Aranda (1-for-8, six strikeouts).
As Rays manager Kevin Cash noted in a news conference Sunday, the Rays laid off Schlittler’s top-of-the-zone four-seamer during the pitcher’s final start of the season, a brief playoff tuneup. “If you’re going to swing at that, you’re likely not going to hit it or have much success with it,” Cash said.
Clearly, the Rays will try that again if Schlittler approaches them in a similar way. But the ace also came at the Red Sox with some variety, throwing his curveball nearly three times more than his usage all season. The Red Sox swung at it 16 times and missed eight of those. He finished off four of his 10 strikeouts with the pitch.
How will he use it against the Rays?
Fanfare for Fastball Freddy
There will be a lot of eyeballs in Tampa Bay on Rays starter Freddy Peralta, as well. Queens, too. Peralta was brought to the Mets last winter in hopes he’d be starting in the playoffs for them, but he did not pitch well, they didn’t play well, and the Mets traded him to the Rays at the deadline.
He’s been much better in his new stop, though this season overall he did not get strikeouts at his usual high rate.
Peralta had a 3.25 ERA in 10 starts with Tampa, including a 0.79 ERA over his last six starts, and a 1.69 ERA across his final four home starts. Expect him to pitch well at the Trop, though, six different Yankees have homered against him during his career. Cody Bellinger is 6-for-14 lifetime (.429) with a 1.270 OPS.
IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect /
Aaron Boone said there were players who worked out Sunday at the Yankees’ spring training facility in Tampa and he mentioned they have a Trajekt machine there, a detailed hitting machine with video. That would let hitters get repeated looks at Peralta’s release point, pitch shapes, and other eyeball data.
Maybe that impacts their success against Peralta, who has a 4.32 ERA in nine postseason games.
Decision at third?
In two playoff games in which their opponent has started a right-hander, the Yanks have used eight lefty hitters in their lineup, with shortstop George Lombard Jr. as the only right-handed bat. Might matchups at least make them ponder a change at third base? Ryan McMahon is 1-for-14 with four strikeouts lifetime against Peralta.
In much smaller sample sizes, here’s what other potential third-base options have done: Anthony Volpe is 2-for-4 with a homer, a double, and two strikeouts, and José Caballero has fanned in both of his at-bats.
After an offensive splurge in the Boston series, the Yankees did not score and were just 1-for-27 in the opener against Drew Rasmussen and Bryan Baker. Do they need a lineup move or was that mostly about an ace and a closer dealing?
Volpe has exactly one game of experience at third in the major leagues. McMahon, who is 1-for-6 this postseason, is a quality defender there and hit all 11 of his home runs this year against righties.
Los Angeles, - October 04: Josue De Paula, left, of the Los Angeles Dodgers named minor league player of the year for the Dodgers prior to Game 2 of an NLDS playoff baseball game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Atlanta Braves at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles on Sunday, October 4, 2026. (Photo by Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images) | MediaNews Group via Getty Images
LOS ANGELES — Josue De Paula popped out as a pinch-hitter for the final out of Game 2, in his major league postseason debut. The comeback attempt fell short, but just by getting into a game at his age was notable.
De Paula on Sunday was 21 years, 133 days old, and became only the fourth Dodgers position player that young to appear in a postseason game, and the first since 19-year-old outfielder Willie Crawford appeared in Game 6 of the 1965 World Series. The other Dodgers position players younger than De Paula to play in the postseason were both 21-year-old outfielders — Eddie Miskis in the 1947 World Series and Ron Fairly in the 1959 World Series.
The other Dodgers as young or younger than De Paula to play in the postseason were pitchers — Johnny Podres (1955) and Don Drysdale (1956) for Brooklyn, followed by Fernando Valenzuela (1981), Clayton Kershaw (2008), and Julio Urías (2016).
Of these nine players all no older than 21 years, 133 days old, only De Paula, Valenzuela (0 for 7, walk, sacrifice), and Urías (0 for 1) batted in the postseason at Dodger Stadium. So it can be said that Josue De Paula is the youngest Dodgers position player to bat in the postseason in the 65-year history of Dodger Stadium.
During a pregame session in the media room at Dodger Stadium, De Paula was asked if he was more nervous talking to media or being in the batter’s box.
“I don’t feel like it’s nerve-racking, you know what I’m saying? I’m just talking with people. We’re all people at the end of the day,” De Paula said. “I love being in the batter’s box. I love competing. It’s not really nerve-racking. It’s normal.”
It will be interesting to see how many of these players wind up being signed before the owners’ lockout, which will almost certainly happen after the Dec. 1 expiration of the MLB/MLBPA collective bargaining agreement. It seems likely that teams will want some cost certainty with arb-eligible players before the lockout. For example, we don’t know what the MLB minimum salary will be under any new CBA, as well as uncertainty about salaries in general.
As always, we await developments. In the meantime, here are the MLBTR projections for the 12 Cubs players who are arb-eligible for 2027, listed in the order they are posted in the MLBTR article.
Justin Steele: $6.8 million
Steele made $6.55 million for four starts in 2025 before his Tommy John surgery ended that season. Then he was paid $6.775 million this year and didn’t throw a single MLB pitch.
2027 will be Steele’s final arb-eligible season, but I don’t see the Cubs paying him even that relatively small sum, not after missing nearly two full seasons. Instead, I would guess they will non-tender him and come to some sort of agreement on a two-year deal that would have incentives in the first year and a vesting option for the second year.
Edward Cabrera: $4.8 million
Cabrera made $4.45 million in 2026 and had a really bad year. Nevertheless, he has talent and two years of team control remaining. This doesn’t seem an unreasonable number.
Braxton Garrett: $1.6 million
Garrett was paid $1.53 million in 2026 as he returned from TJS. He could be a really good under-the-radar rotation guy next year. This seems a very reasonable figure.
Javier Assad: $2.3 million
Assad was paid $1.8 million and the team has a $3.3 million option on him for 2027. He’s under team control through 2028. I would guess the Cubs would rather pay him the $2.3 million figure.
Tyler Austin: $1.3 million
Austin did not play a single game anywhere in 2026. He was expected to back up Michael Busch at first base after hitting well (.293/.377/.568) in six years in NPB.
The Cubs can do better, I think. He’ll likely be non-tendered.
Miguel Amaya: $1.7 million
2027 is Amaya’s first arb-eligible season. Pay the man.
Gabriel Arias: $1.3 million
2027 is Arias’ first arb-eligible season, but this is a tough one. He barely played for the Cubs (seven games, all but one as a pinch-runner/defensive replacement. He’s useful in that role, but perhaps the Cubs can find a minimum-salary guy who can do the same.
Ryan Rolison: $1.1 million
Again, here’s a first-time arb-eligible guy. He had a good season and could be a useful lefty out of the pen for another few years. Pay the man.
Ethan Roberts: $800,000
Roberts finished the year at Triple-A Iowa, where he was optioned after his rehab assignment ended. $800,000 is on the very low end of arb salaries, but Roberts is 29 and hasn’t really shown much at the MLB level. I could go either way on this — pay him, or non-tender him.
Michael Busch: $5.4 million
Here’s another Cub who is first-time arbitration eligible. While his performance declined somewhat from his very good 2025 season, he plays a solid first base and has power. This amount doesn’t seem unreasonable. Busch has three years of team control remaining.
Ben Brown: $1.3 million
There is some uncertainty about Brown’s recovery from his neck injury, but this amount doesn’t seem too much to keep him.
Oct 4, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers left fielder Jackson Chourio (11) is drenched with Gatorade by Milwaukee Brewers center fielder Garrett Mitchell (5) and /Milwaukee Brewers catcher William Contreras (24) after hitting the game winning hit against the San Diego Padres in game two of the NLDS for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Team news
[Arizona Sports] 5 questions the Diamondbacks need to answer this offseason – Arizona has a strong core with catcher Gabriel Moreno, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo, outfielder Corbin Carroll, starters Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson, along with relievers Justin Martinez, Juan Morillo and Brandyn Garcia, all in their 20s. Ketel Marte, Nolan Arenado, Corbin Burnes and Eduardo Rodriguez represent the veteran group. Around them, the roster this past season and looking forward has flaws in need of attention. Here are five questions to shape another critical offseason for an Arizona franchise stuck outside the postseason doors: #1: Will Ketel Marte return?
[MLB Trade Rumors] A Look At Nolan Arenado’s Comeback Year – A look at Arenado’s Statcast page shows an awful lot of blue. He graded out above average in Batting Run Value (+23) and strikeout rate (20.0%, which is a career high). He was valued around average in whiff rate and negatively in everything else. With those kinds of questions in his batting profile, it’s likely that Arenado’s extreme gaps in actual and expected power will normalize next year, and Arenado will be unable to fully repeat his 2026 performance. At the very least, he remains a competent defender at third. While no longer the perennial Gold Glove threat he was during his Colorado prime, Arenado was still worth +2 Outs Above Average at the hot corner this year.
[DbacksRoundTable] D-backs Prospect Brings Dominant Strikeout Ability to Fall League – The Arizona Diamondbacks will send one of their more intriguing pitching prospects to the Arizona Fall League, with Joe Ariola looking to continue an impressive 2026 campaign. The 2025 seventh-round selection out of Wake Forest pitched in the Arizona Complex League, Single-A, High-A and Double-A. Despite the constant movement, Ariola consistently missed bats. He struck out 45.7 percent of the batters he faced over 34.2 innings, finishing with the highest strikeout rate among Minor League pitchers who accumulated at least 30 innings this season. That level of production immediately makes him a pitcher worth watching as he takes another step forward.
[MLB] Padres down 0-2 in NLDS after Miller called upon for 6 outs – The Padres, of course, have been a juggernaut at Petco Park this season, with a 53-30 record, including a pair of playoff wins already. But they’ll need to win two straight Tuesday and Wednesday just to send this series back to Milwaukee for a decisive Game 5 on Friday. In all best-of-five postseason series, teams with an 0-2 deficit have gone on to win the series just 10 of 93 times (11%). Teams that lost the first two games on the road in Division Series with the current 2-2-1 format have gone on to win the series only three of 36 times (8%). The last time a team rallied from an 0-2 hole in a best-of-five series came in the 2017 ALDS, with the Yankees advancing after dropping the first two games at Cleveland.
[NY Post] Dodgers dynasty in serious jeopardy after unforgivable loss to Braves – How did it come to this? The short answer is that Braves manager Walt Weiss gambled – and won. Instead of starting Sale in Game 2, Weiss elected to push him back two days and have him pitch Game 3… The downside for the Braves was considerable. Their two previous games were also bullpen games, and they were counting on a run-down group of relievers to take down Snell and stop the Dodgers from taking a two-games-to-none lead. The Dodgers are at fault for that not happening. If their dreams of a three-peat evaporate over the next week, Game 2 will be the game on which they look back with regret.
[SB Nation] A (Brief) History of Balls Hitting The Roof – This doesn’t happen often, right? Correct, although France’s fly ball was at least the third time in history that a ball has hit the roof in fair territory at American Family Field. It’s actually not the first time that it’s happened in the NLDS; in Game 4 of the 2008 NLDS, Phillies outfielder Jayson Werth hit a fly ball that struck a roof truss and was snagged on a diving catch by none other than Craig Counsell. The second time was in a regular season game in 2018; Reds infielder Scooter Gennett hit a fly ball that, again, came down in fair territory and was caught for an out by Eric Sogard. The third time was last night.
[FrontOfficeSports] Japanese Baseball Is Fighting Back Against MLB Talent Drain – Rakuten, backed by its massive tech ecosystem, integrated a proprietary five-language AI translation tool on its website and tapped into global shipping networks to get merchandise overseas. The organization is actively mapping out expanded English ticketing options at Rakuten Mobile Saikyo Park Miyagi to court international travelers. The Yomiuri Giants are running an English Instagram account and plastering Tokyo airports with ads aimed at inbound tourists. And the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters, who launched Ohtani, have pushed this concept to an architectural extreme.
In October, I’m reviewing 31 horror films from 31 different countries. Here’s today’s entry, for Ukraine
The Witch: Revenge (2024)
Rating: B
Dir: Andriy Kolesnyk
Star: Tetiana Malkova, Olena Khokhlatkina, Pavel Vishnyakov, Taras Tsimbalyuk
The local tag-line for the movie translates into English as “This is a film where a Ukrainian witch kicks the shit out of Russians.” Straightforward and to the point, considering that the two countries have been actively at war with each other for close to five years now. It often happens that conflict informs cinema in the participant countries. We certainly saw that from both sides during World War II. It makes sense, since film will often reflect whatever is preoccupying its intended audience. Film is also, undeniably, used as a tool by the authorities for propaganda. This is, at least in theory, an independent production. Though there’s no question it’s fully informed by the war and, completely unsurprisingly, is designed to appeal to local opinion in this matter.
BOCA CHICA, SANTO DOMINGO, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC - JANUARY 15: Houston Astros international signings Albert Fermin, Randy Arias, Imanol Feliz, Fraimy Sanchez and Jack Daniel Valbrune pose after signing their contracts at the Houston Astros Latin American Academy on January 15, 2026 in Boca Chica, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. (Photo by Houston Astros/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Astros have two teams in the Dominican Summer League and had some standout performances from the international prospects. Let’s take a look.
The DSL Astros Orange put together a strong 2026 season improving on their 32-23 record in 2025 to a 33-20 record in 2026. Below are the team leaders and top performers.
Albert Fermin, INF The Astros top international signing in 2026, Fermin put together a phenomenal professional debut. At just 17 years old, the shortstop led the team in home runs, OPS and wRC+. He played in 49 games and hit .311 with 9 doubles, 6 home runs, 24 stolen bases and 51 walks to 38 strikeouts. Also noteworthy was his OPS and wRC+ was higher than Astros current top prospect Kevin Alvarez while he was in the DSL. Great season for Fermin.
Sebastian Mendez, INF Mendez was in the same class as Fermin and while his bonus number isn’t public, he performed at a high level in 2026. Also just 17 years old, Mendez was electric on the bases collecting 49 stolen bases in 49 games. The left-handed hitting shortstop also led the team in doubles (12) and batting average (.318). While a completely different prospect style than Fermin, he definitely had a big year and could be in the FCL in 2027.
Anthony Millan, OF Millan received a $472,500 bonus in 2025 and after a solid year in the DSL in 2025, he repeated the level in 2026. He put together another season with some good numbers as the 18-year-old hit .260 with 8 doubles, 3 home runs and stole 19 bases over 44 games. He is a speedy outfielder who should end up stateside in 2027.
Jack Valbrune, OF Valbrune was signed in 2026 out of Cuba who was a standout for his bat. In 2026 he showed off elite bat to ball skills in the Dominican Summer League. He played in 44 games in the DSL this season and had a ridiculous 31 walk to 14 strikeout ratio. Good for just an 8.3% strikeout rate. He also batted .291.
The DSL Astros Blue got off to a hot start but faltered a bit at the end of the season finishing 26-30 in 2026. Below are the team leaders and top performers.
Yensi De La Cruz, OF De La Cruz was signed in May of 2024 and debuted last year. Despite a strong 2025, he repeated the level in 2026 and had some decent numbers again. He lead the team in triples, stolen bases, OPS and wRC+. While the batting average was down, he still finished with 36 stolen bases and 45 walks to just 28 strikeouts.
Randy Arias, INF Arias was another big international signing for the Astros in January 2026. The shortstop had a solid debut as he posted a .741 OPS with 18 stolen bases and 47 walks to 34 strikeouts. Just 17 years old, Arias might repeat the DSL in 2027 but has plenty of upside remaining.
KANSAS CITY, MO - SEPTEMBER 27: Lucas Erceg #60 of the Kansas City Royals celebrates after defeating the Cleveland Guardians at Kauffman Stadium on Sunday, September 27, 2026 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Tanner Gatlin/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The Royals have a lot of work to do this offseason to get back to contention. One of the first things they will need to do when the offseason officially begins after the World Series is determine which arbitration-eligible players should be tendered a contract.
MLB Trade Rumors has released its annual arbitration salary projections for this offseason, providing a bit of a clue as to what teams should expect. The Royals have 11 arbitration-eligible players.
Dobnak has a $6 million club option, but if the Royals decline it and pay the $1 million buyout, he would become subject to the arbitration process. He had previously signed a long-term deal with the Twins that paid him $3 million in 2026 before they let him go, which may not be properly factored by MLB Trade Rumors’ model.
The Royals will certainly tender Lynch and Massey after their career-best seasons. Erceg is a decent bet to be tendered after he finished the season strong following some adjustments in the minors. Pearson showed flashes of brilliance, albeit inconsistently, but J.J. Picollo spoke as though they had him in their plans for next year. Anthony Gose gave up just one run in 13.2 innings after the Royals signed him, but he will be 36 years old next year.
The Royals will have an interesting decision on Kyle Isbel. His defense has carried his below-average bat in past seasons. But his offensive numbers really dropped this year, and his salary is enough that the Royals will have to at least consider if he is still worth rostering. Alex Lange had a 6.75 ERA, highest among all qualified relievers. Alec Marsh and James McArthur both missed the entire season with injuries, and Mears missed most of the season with an injury as well.
Under the current system, players are eligible for arbitration once they accrue at least three or more years of service time (plus certain “Super Two” players) but are not yet eligible for free agency. Clubs have to decide whether or not to “tender” the player a contract. If a player is “non-tendered”, they become free agents who can sign with any team.
If the player is tendered, the two sides negotiate on a salary, and if they are unable to come to an agreement by February, each side submits a figure to an independent arbitrator. The arbitrator will pick a side to win, and cannot split the difference. Salaries depend largely on service time. Players cannot receive more than a 20 percent pay cut.
Contracts for arbitration-eligible players used to be non-guaranteed, meaning they could still be cut in spring training without teams obligated to pay the entire salary, but now those contracts are fully guaranteed. Of course, all of this could change under the next collective bargaining agreement, to be worked out in negotiations this offseason.
The Royals currently have seven players under contract for just under $90 million, and are expected to pick up the $2.5 million club option on Tony Gonsolin. The team will likely have around $30 million freed up from the payroll to spend this offseason, according to owner John Sherman.
The deadline to tender or non-tender players is typically near the end of November.
ATLANTA, GA - OCTOBER 3: Isaiah Drake #93 of the Atlanta Braves hits a triple during the Atlanta Braves post-season workouts at Truist Park on October 3, 2023 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Matthew Grimes Jr./Atlanta Braves/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Desert Dogs dropped to 0-2 on the season after falling to the Scorpions 5-2 on Sunday. After each Braves prospect pitched in the league opener, it was Owen Carey and Isaiah Drake who got the start for the Desert Dogs.
The Desert Dogs got on the scoreboard first in the second inning with Isaiah Drake singling with one out, stealing second, and coming into score on a Wyatt Sanford single. It was a nice return to the game for Isaiah who has been out since June 27th due to injury. Drake took a center cut 93 MPH fastball and hit it to the shortstop but beat out the throw for the single. In Drake’s second at bat he wasted no time, swinging at the first pitch, and grounded out to the first baseman. He would then get on base a second time, this time via a fielding error by the second baseman. His final at bat came in the eighth inning when he grounded out to third. Overall on the game Isaiah made strong swing decisions in his return to competitive baseball. He swung at two pitches at the top of the zone that resulted in outs.
Owen Carey’s night didn’t start as strong as Isaiah, as he popped up short with the bases loaded after chasing a changeup away. It came after he protected the inside of the plate on a slider inside. In his second at bat, Owen missed on a center cut fastball and popped up to short. Owen’s third at bat came with runners on first and second and he swung at the first pitch again, a sinker high and in but in the zone, and grounded out to short. His final at bat came in the bottom of the seventh where he drew a four pitch walk. Overall, Owen was aggressive in the zone and while he only reached base one time, the swing decisions were there.
SCOTTSDALE, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 16: General Manager Zack Minasian of the San Francisco Giants looks on at Scottsdale Stadium on February 16, 2026 in Scottsdale, Arizona. (Photo by Andy Kuno/San Francisco Giants/Getty Images) | Getty Images
“Something I was looking at the other day,” Minasian stated, “the ninth inning obviously has been a huge issue. Our bullpen ERA, when you take out the ninth inning — I think the last time I looked was a couple of days ago — sixth in baseball.”
So, let’s apply that to the whole team and see what we get.
When you take out…
Rafael Devers’ first month, he was the fourth-best hitter in MLB
His 158 wRC+ trails just PCA (171), Yordan Alvarez (169), and Pete Alonso (161). Wow! Great recovery from .207/.248/.289 to start the season. Way to make jagweeds like me eat manure. His 35 home runs over this same stretch are the third-most in the sport, too, behind only PCA and Alonso. He was every bit the middle of the order threat Buster Posey envisioned for a good Giants team he didn’t know how to build in 2026.
April, August, and September, the lineup was 7th in MLB
The team wRC+ of 108 tied with the Cubs and Rangers, and that trio trailed only the Nationals (116), Pirates (112), Dodgers (110), and Brewers (109). They were only 9th in home runs (105), but back to #2 for Isolated Power. Okay, just 13th in runs scored, but they play in a tough park! Unfortunately, the team was only 34-46 during this remarkable stretch of hitting. BUT!
Some of the 7 walk-off losses from 5/1-8/1, they’d be 37-42
Look, the Giants probably should’ve settled on somebody else for the 9th inning rather than Caleb Killian. Let’s extract him from a couple of those scenarios and let’s not use Matt Gage to flip around Ketel Marte. There are three games we can safely return to the Giants (2 blown saves and one blown tie).
Now, this flip doesn’t really do much in terms of what happens this season (the trade deadline, the injuries, the losing), but they’d have been 50-60 on the morning of August 2nd and that is a psychologically better place than the 47-64 they actually sported.
Now, looking at that, “get a closer” seems like a pretty obvious solution. I would argue that “trying an opener more often” would also help, but that 5th inning definitely screams, too, “have a quicker hook.” But all this really tells us is that major league lineups are difficult to navigate, even if the pitchers have the advantage these days. The Giants don’t help themselves by staffing up with remarkably similar arsenals. Lots of 94 mph sinker-slider dudes.
Randy Rodriguez, Camilo Doval, and Trent Harris figure to be good tweaks to the mix heading into next year, but some creativity in deployment is needed, too. That doesn’t mean running Keaton Winn out there for a third inning or for a third consecutive day, but it’s hard to look at this one big thing and argue that the Giants are extremely far away from figuring out the pitching staff. They don’t need to spend $20-$30 million on the bullpen. Now, I doubt they have the creativity needed to properly sort it out, but there you have it.
Logan Webb’s starts against the AL East, his ERA drops to 3.66
While he’s certainly The Perfect Giant, the ace of the staff, and a world-class starting pitcher, maybe he’s just not good against the American League East. Maybe his stuff and pitch arsenal is just batting practice for those hitters. He gave up 20 earned runs in 4 starts against the Yankees, Orioles, Blue Jays, and Red Sox. Take those out and his season is much more in line with the Logan Webb we’re used to — he still gets injured and still doesn’t pitch well enough to merit Cy Young consideration or not have concerns about his skills going into next season, but his season his 4.31 ERA doesn’t happen. (A reminder that he still wound up with a 3.1 fWAR despite just 160 IP).
Sal Stewart, Bryce Eldridge becomes a top 3 NL RoY candidate
He doesn’t win, of course. Not with Carson Benge (4.3 fWAR), JJ Wetherholt (4.6), and Nolan McLean in front (3.5). Eldridge’s 1.8 fWAR and 17 home runs are very nice for a 21-year old, but hardly spectacular when compared to the field. Benge has 20 and plays RF (occasionally CF) while Wetherholt has 17, t00, but plays shortstop. McLean is the Mets’ ace and was 15th in MLB in ERA (3.16). But this is very funny to imagine. Sal Stewart would have to be taken out by some sort of scandal to not win. He hit 32 homers and drove in 111.
All other positions, then Drew Gilbert is the 26th-most valuable player in the National League
That’s right. If we only looked at the outfielders, then Drew Gilbert would be a top 30 player with his 1.7 fWAR and triple slash of .238/.330/.394. He rates as a good defender, too, which means the Giants have run into some good luck with Harrison Bader’s extended injury time. Jonah Cox might not be able to hit, but an acceptable platoon of he and Drew Gilbert can handle center field for the Giants for a part of next season.
Remove Patrick Bailey, the Giants’ catcher corps is better than the Guardians’
Somehow, the Giants with better catcher defense than the Guardians. They traded away their Gold Glover and got better. Their 8.8 Defensive Runs Above Average was the Guardians’ lowest total of the last 5 seasons. The Giants’ 10.2 was their second-lowest after 2022 (2.8).
Jung Hoo Lee’s first 4 series and final 13, he’s a top 30 hitter
Like the rest of the offense, it took a bit for JHL to get going. He hit just .143/.224/.214 in 49 plate appearances against the Yankees, Padres, Mets, and Phillies. Those would be tough matchups for any hitter, but especially a guy who is still adjusting to the league and an MLB workload. From April 10 to August 5 he slashed .322/.353/.476 (131 wRC+) and just landed on the front page of hitters. The .338 BAbip and 2.0 fWAR should tell you that he’s contact and average-at-best defense, but you can’t take away the success he had in those 377 PA.
The relief pitching, the starting staff is playoff-caliber
Now, even though Zack Minasian laid out how parts of the Giants’ bullpen was above average, if you forget that the ‘pen exists at all (just 0.4 fWAR in value, after all), the starting staff, despite a 40-65 W-L record and just 9.4 fWAR in value (20th in MLB), stats out better than White Sox, Cubs, Padres, and Astros. Also better than the Diamondbacks, who just missed the postseason. Does this mean that an improved bullpen with a fringe-y rotation and 7-10% better than league average lineup could sneak into the Wild Card next postseason? Mr. Minasian would say yes.
Division play is removed, the Giants are 48-60 (.444)
No, that’s not good, but it’s much better than the .401 winning percentage. They went just 17-35 against the NL West, losing every season series against their division rivals, including the Rockies. But if you take those games out, it shows they are still pretty rotten. Is it a starting point for improvement? Probably not.
The 8 worst players are removed, the Giants are 4 wins better
If you knock out Harrison Bader, Osleivis Basabe, Will Brennan, Jerar Encarnacion, Matt Gage, Carson Seymour, Philip Abner, and Ryan Walker.
Now, to some degree, Walker (-0.5 fWAR) and Gage (-0.8) were unforeseeably bad, but there was also the persistence factor, where the team kept playing them despite their effort demonstrating that the opposite action should be taken. Had the Giants invested more in the bullpen during the offseason or simply had better coaching then maybe their contributions could’ve been avoided or minimized, but here we are, left to simply delete them. Jerar Encarnacion’s -0.5 fWAR in just 17 games and 35 plate appearances is truly impressive.
At the end of the day, 4 extra wins doesn’t amount to much, but if you couple that with the maybe 3 you could get from the rescued blown saves, those combined 7 gives the Giants a 72-90 record. Still not good, but that’s the type of season where you can easily wonder, “If they’d invested more in the bullpen, gotten more out of Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser to start the season, and avoided a lot of those injuries, then maybe they could’ve amounted to something more?”
Oh wow, now I see the power of Minasianball. It can get you to believe anything!
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - OCTOBER 04: Jackson Chourio #11 of the Milwaukee Brewers has Gatorade poured on him by Garrett Mitchell #5, and William Contreras #24 after his game-winning two-run single against the San Diego Padres during the ninth inning in game two of the National League Division Series at American Family Field on October 04, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Good morning! Two close NLDS games took the stage last night with the Milwaukee Brewers taking a 2-0 series lead and the Atlanta Braves evening their series at 1-1.
The Chicago White Sox take on the Cleveland Guardians at 2 PM this afternoon for the first ALDS Game 2, and the New York Yankees follow against the Tampa Bay Rays at 5 PM.
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - OCTOBER 04: Sal Frelick #10 of the Milwaukee Brewers slides into home plate past Freddy Fermin #54 of the San Diego Padres to score the game-winning run during the ninth inning on a hit by Jackson Chourio in game two of the National League Division Series at American Family Field on October 04, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images) | Getty Images
For the second time in the National League Division Series the San Diego Padres have seen one of their top relievers surrender the lead and the game which has them on the brink of elimination.
Mason Miller was called on for a six-out save and he was one out away from securing a 3-2 win in the second game of the series, but the San Diego closer walked the bases loaded and then allowed a game-winning single to Jackson Chourio, which gave Milwaukee a 4-3 win and a 2-0 lead in the five-game series. Miller was not sharp in his outing but he had done enough to get through the bottom of the eighth and into the bottom of the ninth. The right-hander got a groundout to open the final frame, but then allowed back-to-back walks to Christian Yelich and Sal Frelick. Miller got Andrew Vaughn to fly out and the Padres were one out away from heading home with the series tied, 1-1. Gary Sanchez was called on to pinch hit and he too drew a walk off Miller to load the bases.
Chourio got an opportunity to win the game with a hit and on the sixth pitch of the at-bat, a 101 mph four-seam fastball, he hit a single just beyond the dive of second baseman Jake Cronenworth, which rolled to Jackson Merrill in center field. Yelich scored easily from third and Merrill threw home, but Frelick was able to slide in ahead of the throw and tag to give Milwaukee a come-from-behind walk-off win.
It was a crushing defeat for San Diego who saw Adrian Morejon surrender what proved to be a game-winning solo home run to William Contreras in the seventh inning of Game 1. Ty France had what looked like a go-ahead home run clang off a stadium truss which resulted in the ball being caught by Chourio and the Padres suffered a one-run loss.
After the result on Friday night, it was imperative that San Diego got a win and split the two games in Milwaukee. In an effort to to do so, Michael King started on the mound for the Padres and he delivered a solid performance that saw him go five-plus innings, where he allowed a run on three hits with no walks and six strikeouts. Yuki Matsui pitched 1.1 innings and allowed a run and was followed by Bradgley Rodriguez who pitch 0.2 innings without allowing a run.
The San Diego offense was held to just five hits with France accounting for two of those. Merrill, Luis Campusano and Samad Taylor accounted for the other three. The Padres left eight runners on base and were 2-for-9 with runners in scoring position. Two of the three runs scored by San Diego were unearned thanks to three Milwaukee fielding errors.
The Padres have an off day today before returning to Petco Park for what is now an elimination game on Tuesday. San Diego will try to keep its season alive with the help of the Friar Faithful on Tuesday at 6:30 p.m.
