Let’s switch gears for a moment from the pitchers I’ve been looking at and instead check out one of the top outfield free agents, former Mariners outfielder Randy Arozarena.
No question, Arozarena has talent. He’s a solid 3 or 4 WAR outfielder, generally good for 20+ home runs and 20+ stolen bases every year.
The red flag here is that 2026 was his best season. He batted .281/.381/.484 and led the American League in runs scored with 113, which was by far a career best (95 was his previous best). The .381 OBP was also a career high (except for .382 in only 76 PA in 2020).
Why a red flag? Because Arozarena’s going to turn 32 in February. Would you give a guy like this a four-year deal coming off his best overall season? MLB Trade Rumors has him projected for four years and $100 million and The Athletic has Arozarena at essentially the same, four years and $108 million. Interestingly, the article in The Athletic has Seiya Suzuki projected at the same figures. Suzuki is a few months older than Arozarena, as is Ian Happ.
Both Happ and Suzuki are better defenders than Arozarena, and at those figures I’d certainly rather have either of the two departing Cubs back than Arozarena, despite Arozarena’s base-stealing ability. Regarding that, here’s an interesting note from the MLBTR article:
Arozarena runs quite a bit more than Suzuki but is actually a good bit slower in terms of average sprint speed; Statcast measures Suzuki with a sprint speed of 28 feet per second, in the 63rd percentile of big leaguers. Arozarena is at 27.1 ft/sec, down in the 40th percentile. He’s an aggressive baserunner, however, and that’s manifested in the form of six consecutive 20-steal seasons.
I imagine Jed Hoyer and his baseball ops staff will have a look at Arozarena, who’s been a fan favorite everywhere he’s been. Ultimately I think they’ll probably pass on him, and that’s what I would do as well.
ATLANTA, GA - JUNE 17: Anthony Molina #61 of the Atlanta Braves pitches in the eighth inning during the continuation of a game from June 16 against the San Francisco Giants at Truist Park on June 17, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Jack Casey/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Sometimes in baseball, you get a rare trade that’s a win-win for both clubs. Anthony Molina’s 2026 consisted, in large part, of appearing to be part of one of those trades, as the Atlanta Braves only got a few innings out of him before eventually shipping him off to San Francisco so that they could get Tyler Mahle at the Trade Deadline.
Now it’s time to figure out what the Giants saw in Molina during his time in Atlanta that convinced them to send Mahle down South.
How Acquired
The Braves claimed Molina off of waivers back in December of 2025. They then outrighted him to Triple-A Gwinnett, which is where he started the season before eventually getting added to the big league roster to begin the month of May.
What were the expectations?
Simply stated: to provide a right-handed, low-leverage option out of the bullpen for a short period of time. Things didn’t go particularly well for Molina during his two-season stint with the Rockies (a combined -0.4 fWAR in a long relief role), so it wasn’t as if he was expected to come in and be lights out coming out of the ‘pen for Atlanta. As long as he could come in and eat an inning or two, everything would be A-OK for Molina and the Braves.
More broadly, Molina had two different-yet-similar seasons in Colorado before getting the boot. In 2024, he had a low strikeout rate, a not-so-good walk rate, but managed to avoid getting bricked by homers despite the whole Coors Field thing, leading to a bad-but-not-abominable 146 ERA-, 97 FIP-, and 110 xFIP-. In 2025, it looked like he made huge strides in avoiding walks… but it was really just because guy were blasting moonshots off him before he could walk them. His strikeout rate didn’t budge, and his pitching line was a 153 ERA-, 160 FIP-, and the same 110 xFIP-.
While there was the hope that the Braves could somehow fix him, there was little reason to expect him to serve as more than organizational depth.
2026 Results
Molina made a grand total of four (4) appearances for the Braves. He only made two appearances at Truist Park and one of those two appearances was actually a start — for the San Francisco Giants, after the Braves ended up trading him out West in order to acquire Tyler Mahle in what wound up being a very good trade for the Braves.
Anyways, the Giants figured out something with Molina (and the Braves did not) when it came to him being a starter as he actually finished the season having made a few really good starts for them, so this wound up being a bit of a win-win deal. Our old friend from McCovey Chronicles, Grant Brisbee, wrote a piece on how well Molina was doing for the Giants, in case you’re interested. It’s a gift link, so enjoy.
Anyways, as far as his stint in Atlanta went, it wasn’t exactly spectacular. He did pitch two scoreless innings against his old mates, the Rockies, on May 1, but he got dinged for two runs on three hits against both the Mets on June 14 and those very same Giants on June 16. Perhaps San Francisco saw something during that appearance that they liked because two weeks later, he was on the mound in Cobb County against the Braves.
All in all, Molina put together a 129 ERA-, 133 FIP-, and 97 xFIP- for the Braves in those three outings. Replacement level? Sure. But it was also better than the very low bar he’d set for himself in 2024-2025. The Braves had him substantially increase his curveball and changeup usage, and perhaps it helped a little.
The big thing, though, was that Molina went to the Giants and looked like a legitimate major leaguer. His fastball got tweaked, and he threw it a bunch more. He made five starts and one long relief appearance for the Giants, and four of those outings were fantastic. His line with his new team was a sparkling 91 ERA-, 64 FIP-, and 87 xFIP-, and he collected 0.9 fWAR in 29 innings. Wow.
Despite it being just 29 innings, Molina kind of had it all. He was throwing 96 mph as a starter, not walking guys, getting whiffs on his curveball, and even managing contact. It’s all certainly fascinating, and the Giants get to enjoy whatever Molina may turn into going forward, instead of Atlanta.
What went right?
Well, those two innings that Molina pitched in his Braves debut against his old friends from Colorado ended up being sneakily crucial, as Molina’s appearance bought the Braves some time and kept the deficit at 6-1 in the sixth inning and 6-2 in the seventh before the Braves turned it around late and ended up winning 8-6 in dramatic fashion. It’s the little things, sometimes.
Also, again, the Braves got Tyler Mahle for him in a trade, so that was cool for the Braves. And, Molina’s turnaround was very cool for him and the Giants.
What went wrong?
Molina ended up getting plenty of strikeouts for the Giants but that certainly wasn’t the case for Atlanta. Molina struck out two Mets batters during his appearance on June 14 and those wound up being the only two strikeouts that he would rack up during his time as a Braves pitcher. He was charged with more runs than he tallied strikeouts while a Brave, which isn’t exactly something that warms the heart.
His last outing with the Braves, which came against the Giants, was somewhat bizarre in that he somehow faced nine batters in two innings and avoided walking any of them while also not striking out any of them. He did get tagged for a homer by eventual teammate Willy Adames, so that probably wasn’t fun.
It’s possible to view the change of scenery as a sour grapes thing — why couldn’t the Braves have sent over someone but Molina, or figured out how to unlock Molina the way the Giants did — but we probably need to see him keep it up over longer than 29 frames before we can really get salty about it.
2027 outlook
While Molina pitched well down the stretch for San Francisco, he’s still going to be fighting for a rotation spot when (maybe if) Spring Training rolls around. It’ll be highly unlikely that the Braves get him back for a reunion, so that’s about it!
29 innings isn’t much, but he was so good that his early Steamer projection has bumped him into the generic “everyone’s a fourth-starter quality swingman until proven otherwise” tier. That’s quite a jump from organizational depth / replacement level arm, so hats off to him and the Giants. We’ll see if he can keep it up.
After a couple of years of sharing backup catcher duties with Garrett Stubbs, the Phillies hoped that in 2026 Rafael Marchan would be able to handle the job full time. Perhaps he could even help ease the burden on overworked, aging starter J.T. Realmuto.
That did not happen. Marchan was completely inept at the plate, got injured, and eventually supplanted once again by Stubbs.
The stats: .099/.137/.165 AVG/OBP/SLG, 2 HRs, 6 RBI, -0.7 WAR
That turned out to be in no way predictive of the season he would have. He was incapable of reaching base the rest of the year, recording just nine hits (with zero doubles or triples) and two walks.
He did hit one more home run, which oddly landed right next to someone who was wearing a replica of his jersey. (Why?)
As he often does, Marchan spent time on the Injured List, suffering from tendinitis in his knee. By the time he returned in September, Stubbs had established a role as Aaron Nola’s personal catcher. Despite Marchan providing little value at that point, the Phillies kept him on the major league roster for the rest of the season which serves as a damning statement at the quality of reserves the Phillies had to choose from.
The future
The team will wisely look at alternatives for the backup catcher spot in the offseason. Marchan is still under team control, so he’ll likely be back with the Phillies in camp, though it is possible he gets dropped from the 40-man roster and winds up elsewhere. His defense is good enough to stick at the major league level, but even the best defender needs to have an OPS higher than .302.
Final grade: F
When the bar to clear is Garrett Stubbs, and you can’t clear it, you have failed.
Aug 20, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Cleveland Guardians pitcher Parker Messick (77) reacts against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the first inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The Tigers’ Kevin McGonigle and the Reds’ Sal Stewart won the AL and NL Rookie of the Year awards yesterday, respectively.
Chase DeLauter finished sixth and Travis Bazzana finished 11th. A good year for Guardians’ rookies, to be sure! You can view the vote totals here.
The Guardians will receive a compensatory pick at the end of the first round because Messick was on the Opening Day Roster and ranked in top 100 lists prior to the season.
Tonight is the Manager of the Year Awards, then Cy Young Awards Wednesday night (as well as Reliever of the Year), then MVP awards Thursday night.
MILWAUKEE, WI - OCTOBER 03: Adrian Morejon #50 of the San Diego Padres pitches during Game One of the National League Division Series presented by Booking.com between the San Diego Padres and the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on Saturday, October 3, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
One way that a team like the Orioles that’s in need of starting rotation help could address their problem is to just sign a pretty good starting pitcher who is, as much as can be believed about any pitcher, a decent bet to continue being pretty good. Mike Elias has steadfastly refused to do this even when it seemed absolutely necessary to the Orioles fortunes, attempting a variety of other schemes. There’s one that he hasn’t pulled off yet: Signing a reliever and turning that guy into a starting pitcher. This winter affords the opportunity to do that in the form of recent Padres pitcher Adrián Morejón.
If old rumors were to be believed, the Orioles had some interest in trying to pull off this caper after the 2024 season. That winter, then-Yankees closer Clay Holmes became a free agent and ended up signing a two-year, $26 million contract with the Mets, who turned him into a starting pitcher. The results went well for the Mets, with Holmes going on to a 3.44 ERA in 51 games; they traded him for a prospect when they were out of the race at the deadline this year.
Morejón enters this winter as one of the game’s potentially elite relief free agents. He’s on a three-year heater in terms of his results with the Padres, dropping a 2.58 ERA and 1.088 WHIP over the past three seasons combined. In 2026, this included a number of multi-inning relief stints – he threw 86 innings, which isn’t exactly a starting pitcher’s workload but is closer to the way there than a lot of relievers. He had been a starting pitcher in the past, before early 2021 Tommy John surgery.
In contrast to most of the high-end pitchers on the free agent market this offseason, Morejón is still fairly young. He’ll only be heading into his age 28 season next year, so the fear of decline in the back years of a contract will be less than it might be for some others. He should be able to keep up what he’s got for a few more years.
The Statcast page for this player is a thing of beauty. Look at all that red! He throws the ball hard. He’s got a great changeup. He gets batters to chase, he gets them to whiff, he gets a lot of ground balls, he doesn’t give up hard contact. Atypically for a reliever, he has a four-pitch mix – which is another part of why there are those who imagine him as a starting pitcher. Morejón has done it before. He might have the ability to do it again.
A willingness to convert Morejón into a starter could be something that will give a bidding team an edge over others, assuming that’s something that he wants to do. (I don’t know if it is.) It’s unlikely the Orioles will really outbid the field – but they do have opportunity in their rotation that other bidding teams may not. They don’t have an ace, they didn’t have a #2 caliber starting pitcher in 2026, and they don’t have a major league-caliber lefty ready to step into the rotation in any capacity.
There are varying opinions about just how much Morejón will cost. At MLB Trade Rumors, the projection is a five-year contract worth $80 million. That’s between Kyle Bradish and Shane Baz money. Those are big bucks for a reliever, especially one who isn’t even racking up saves. Not bad at all to get a good starting pitcher. FanGraphs projected three years and $72 million – a shorter deal with a much higher AAV. That makes him either a cheaper AAV than guys like Trevor Rogers, Michael King, and Freddy Peralta, or a much shorter contract term, lessening the back end risk.
On top of the money, there will be a draft pick penalty tied to signing Morejón. The Padres extended him a qualifying offer, one of two relievers to receive one heading into this offseason. That means that if the Orioles sign Morejón, they’d also give up their third-highest pick in next year’s draft, which would most likely be a mid-second round selection. The likely departure of Rogers will give the Orioles a compensation pick at the end of the first round.
I’d rather see the Orioles just get Rogers. The thing about that is, as we are all well aware in Birdland, that Elias hasn’t spent at the high end of the free agency market for pitching before. Even after making the big splash for Pete Alonso last offseason and making a couple of modest splashes with those Baz and Bradish extensions, it’s tough to imagine him ponying up for the Rogers level.
It’s not as hard to imagine Elias trying one of his galaxy brain ideas – signing Morejón because he’ll be cheaper or take fewer years than Rogers or Peralta or King – and turning him into a starting pitcher. If he doesn’t want to pay up for a proven starter, if he doesn’t want to bundle a bunch of prospects for a speculative upside play that doesn’t hit the upside while one of the prospects dashes from Low-A to Triple-A in one year, Morejón is there.
This wouldn’t be some completely out-of-nowhere idea on Elias’s; Morejón is bandied about as a possible starter conversion in basically any article about this year’s free agent class. There are also analysts out there, such as FG’s Michael Baumann, who think Morejón retains more value as a multi-inning reliever. Whether the Orioles need one of those is debatable, but I don’t think they’ll be spending $16-20 million per year for one in any case. Getting a discount off the market rate for a roll of the dice where if it doesn’t work out, any idiot could have told him ahead of time that this would be a bad idea? Now that’s speaking Elias’s language.
MIAMI, FLORIDA - MARCH 14: Hiromi Itoh #14 of Team Japan pitches in the sixth inning during the game between Venezuela and Japan at loanDepot park on March 14, 2026 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Gene Wang - Capture At Media/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The son of a fisherman, Iromi Itoh was born on August 31, 1997 in Shikabe, a town in southern Hokkaido. As a young boy, he got his introduction to baseball from Koki Morita, a former relief pitcher in the NPB who happened to be a childhood friend of his fathers and gave him personalized baseball instruction from a young age as a result. He grew up idolizing Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters ace Yu Darvish and focused on pitching as a result. He attended Tomakomai High School, the alma mater of Masahiro Tanaka, but the school did not qualify for the Spring or Summer Koshien tournaments at any point while he attended.
After graduating in 2016, Itoh attended Komazawa University, but he dropped out after his first semester there, citing an inability to see himself remaining in school for another four years. After reevaluating his decision with friends and family, he enrolled at Tomakomai Komazawa University but because of college baseball rules, he could not participate in baseball games until a full calendar year passed between when he dropped out of Komazawa University. When he became eligible in his second year, he joined the Komazawa University baseball team and pitched for them for the remainder of his college career.
In October 2020, following his graduation, he was selected by the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters, his local hometown club, with their first-round selection in the 2020 NPB Draft; he was actually the first first-round pick from Hokkaido to be selected by the Fighters since the team moved to the island from Tokyo. The 23-year-old right-hander agreed to terms with the team and made his professional debut a few months later, when the 2021 season began.
The rookie right-hander made his first professional start on March 31 against the Saitama Seibu Lions. He would go on to make 23 more in 2021 and would end the year posting a 2.90 ERA in 146.0 innings, allowing 125 hits, walking 53, and striking out 141. Though he certainly pitched well enough to deserve it, Itoh lost out on the Pacific League Rookie of the Year Award to Orix Buffaloes left-hander Hiroya Miyagi, who posted a 2.51 ERA in 147.0 innings, allowing 118 hits, walking 39, and striking out 131.
His 2022 began inauspiciously, as he contracted COVID-19, but he did not miss any time on the mound and ended up having an all-star season. Making 26 starts, Itoh posted a 2.95 ERA in 155.2 innings, allowing 140 hits, walking 49, and striking out 112.
Following the conclusion of the 2022 NPB season, he was selected to play with the Japanese National Team in an exhibition against Australia, and then a few months later, in the 2023 World Baseball Classic. The right-hander appeared in 3 games for Samurai Japan, all out of the bullpen, and was perfect, not allowing a single baserunner in 2.1 innings, striking out 3 batters. When he returned to Japan for the start of the 2024 season, he struggled and underperformed to the point that manager Tsuyoshi Shinjo considered having him removed from the starting rotation altogether. By May, he started turning things around, and while he ended up remaining in the Fighters rotation all season, it was a definite down year for the right-hander. He made 24 starts in total and posted a 3.46 ERA in 153.1 innings, allowing 147 hits, walking 41, and striking out 134.
Itoh recovered in 2024. He won a pair of Player of the Month Awards, one at the beginning of the season and one at the end, and posted a cumulative 2.65 ERA in 176.1 innings over 26 starts, allowing 150 hits, walking 39, and striking out 161. The Fighters made the postseason, going 75-60 and ending the year in second place in the Pacific League. They faced and beat the Chiba Lotte Marines in the best-of-three first stage of the Pacific League Climax Series, but lost against the league champion Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks in the best-of-six final stage of the Climax Series.
Itoh had been steadily improving, but everything came together for him in 2025. The 27-year-old appeared in 27 games and posted a 2.52 ERA in 196.2 innings, allowing 179 hits, walking 29, and striking out 195, his workload, BB/9 rate, and strikeout total all leading the league. The Fighters once again made the postseason, facing and beating the Orix Buffaloes, but as was the case in 2024, they once again lost to the SoftBank Hawks in the final stage of the Climax Series. While that would be the end of the line for the team, Itoh would still win one more thing. The right-hander won Eiji Sawamura Award by the award selection committee, meeting enough of their benchmarks for it to be awarded to him, unlike the 2024 season, when the committee determined that no single pitcher met enough of their qualifications and did not name an Eiji Sawamura Award as a result.
In spring, the 28-year-old right-hander participated in the 2026 World Baseball Classic. He appeared in two games for Samurai Japan and allowed 5 earned runs in 4.0 innings, allowing 4 hits, a pair of home runs, not walking a batter, and striking out 7. When he returned to Japan for the 2026 Fighters season, appeared in 26 games and posted a 3.18 ERA in 172.2 innings, allowing 184 hits, walking 34, and striking out 159.
The right-hander stands 5’9” and weighs 180-pounds, which is well below the average height for a pitcher (6’2”) and would make him the shortest starting pitcher in Major League Baseball. He would not be the shortest pitcher playing for a Major League Baseball club, as San Diego Padres reliever Yuki Matsui stands 5’8”. While there certainly may be some surface-level concern that his smaller frame might not be able to handle the rigors of the 162-game MLB season, Itoh has been an iron man in Japan, leading the league in innings pitched in 2025 and finding himself in the top 10 in innings pitched in five of the six years he has been pitching for the Fighters- and in 2021, the year he was not in the top 10, he was 11.
Itoh throws from a three-quarters arm slot, dropping and driving off the mound with a fairly small extension and a long arm action through the back. As many Japanese pitchers do, the right-hander features a hitch in his leg lift when the bases are empty, and wraps his wrist during the full extension of his arm circle. His delivery is smooth and balanced, allowing him to repeat his release point well and partially how he has maintained an extremely small walk rate throughout the course of his career.
Itoh’s arsenal of pitches is quite large, consisting of a four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, cutter, splitter, slider, curveball, and changeup. In 2026, he threw his four-seam fastball 36.6% of the time, his slider 23.7% of the time, his splitter 13.4% of the time, his two-seam fastball 10.4% of the time, his cutter 6.2% of the time, his curveball 5.5% of the time, and his changeup 4.2 of the time. Going back to 2024, he used his cutter and splitter a bit more, but his pitch usage has otherwise broadly remained consistent over the last few seasons. All in all, Itoh is most effective in the shadow of the zone, getting batters to get themselves out by confusing them with his wide assortment of pitches that he is able to spot all over the strike zone.
Itoh’s four-seam fastball averaged 92 MPH in 2026, topping out at 94 MPH. It features above-average arm-side movement and regularly posted above-average 15”+ induced vertical break readings, making it most effective in the upper quadrants of the strike zone. Itoh’s two-seam fastball has similar characteristics, exchanging some velocity for additional arm-side movement.
His slider averaged 83 MPH in 2026, and when the pitch is at its best, it features sharp sweeping horizontal movement in addition to hard vertical break. Itoh either does not always get a good horizontal tilt on the pitch or liberally mixes in a harder gyro slider that minimizes horizontal movement. In 2026, his slider was actually an ineffective pitch, with a slightly negative weighted runs above average per 100, but in 2025 and prior seasons, the pitch was slightly positive.
His splitter averaged 87 MPH in 2026. The pitch tunnels well with his fastball and features late downward drop. Like his slider, the pitch resulted in a slightly negative weighted runs above average per 100, but in past seasons has fluctuated between being slightly above-average and slightly below-average.
His cutter is thrown hard, averaging 90 MPH last season. Last season, it resulted in the highest weighted runs above average per 100 of all of his pitches and has consistently been one of Itoh’s most effective offerings thanks to its combination of velocity and late darting movement.
Itoh’s curveball averaged 76 MPH last season. The big bender features loopy 12-6 drop and is more of a change-of-pace offering than a real swing-and-miss pitch due to its lack of bite. His changeup, which averaged 84 MPH, is similar. Because it lacks dynamic fade or tumble, the pitch is more of a strike stealer or set up to begin a sequence rather than an effective pitch in and of itself.
On the whole, Itoh does a good job of keeping the ball in the stadium, posting a 22.3% line drive rate, 41.0% groundball rate, and 36.8% flyball rate in 2026, with slight variations in those trends over the course of his career. In particular, his sinker, splitter, and changeup have been effective worm killers.
All in all, nothing in particular stands out as being decidedly above-average in pitching repertoire, but the right-hander has a high amount of pitchability. He knows when to throw what pitches, all of his offerings have synergy with each other, and he is able able to command them all.
Itoh has the nickname “Mr. White Smoke” stemming from an incident that took place during the 2021 Summer Olympics. Members of the South Korean National Team complained that the amount of rosin that Itoh was using was distracting, and that he was intentionally using so much powder in order to confuse hitters by leaving a lingering cloud of rosin in the air around the mound. Itoh’s response was that he was not intentionally trying to gain an advantage over hitters by making it harder for them to see, but that he simply is a sweaty individual.
GLENDALE, ARIZONA - OCTOBER 15: Charles Davalan #6 of the Los Angeles Dodgers swings the bat during a game between the Surprise Saguaros and Glendale Desert Dogs at Camelback Ranch on October 15, 2026 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images) | Getty Images
We began this review series of minor league standouts for the Dodgers by highlighting the Ontario Tower Buzzers’ most impactful player in 2026, one Easton Shelton here. From one MVP to another, we have Charles Davalan next on the list, elected the Most Valuable Player in the Midwest League for the 2026 season—the first Dodger to win this award since Andy Pages did it back in 2021.
While perhaps not the highest-rated outfield prospect in the Dodgers farm system, Davalan finished the year inside MLB’s top 100 prospects, landing at 79th overall after a marvelous campaign—sixth among Dodgers prospects.
The Dodgers’ second of back-to-back selections in the Competitive Balance Round portion of the 2025 MLB Draft—picked just outside the top 40 with a competitive balance pick they acquired alongside Mike Sirota in the Gavin Lux trade—Davalan’s first full season in the minors was a glaring success. Advanced enough to be thrown straight into High-A ball after a dominant showing in a mere handful of games in Low-A to wrap up the 2025 campaign, going 17 for 34. Davalan established himself as a staple of the Loons offense.
To claim Davalan hit the ground running in High-A might be an understatement, considering in his third game, the former Arkansas Razorback secured his first multihomer performance as a pro, setting up an opening month in which he batted over .300. The biggest challenge, though, came in the following two months, with a .755 OPS between May and June, but from that moment forward, Davalan became the top hitter in the league—including a .790 OPS in July with 16 extra-base hits in just 20 games, which helped fuel his MVP candidacy.
With the way Davalan wrapped up the season, the Dodgers felt confident enough to promote him to Double-A for the playoffs. While the Drillers were swept in two by the Cardinals, Davalan did his part, securing a hit in both games, including a key home run, his 25th this season.
Having a refined hit tool as one of his calling cards, Davalan had no problems handling left-handed pitchers in his first year as a pro, finishing the year with a .337 batting average across 86 at-bats against same-handed pitchers.
Still on the impressiveness of Davalan’s hit tool, the 22-year-old not only had more walks (63) than strikeouts (57), but he also nearly matched his impressive college feat of more extra-base hits than punchouts, falling one short of it with 56 XBH. He was one of three players to score 100 runs or more in the Midwest League, joined by teammate Eduardo Quintero, and his 128 hits and 29 doubles both led the league.
Heading into the Arizona Fall League, Davalan, alongside Quintero, was probably the most exciting Dodger to feature in the competition. And although his production at the plate has been disappointing (.683 OPS), one key aspect of his development has piqued the interest of those following him closely. After moving between left and center in 2026, Davalan has worked as a second baseman in the AFL, reverting to his early days as a baseball player.
If Davalan can continue to take steps forward at second, the flexibility he would bring to the table will be invaluable to this organization—especially so given all the outfield depth it currently has, both in the minors and majors.
That two-homer game in his third appearance of the season was one of four multi-homer games for Davalan with the Loons. Although it didn’t represent anywhere near his season-high mark in RBI, the one multi-homer game we’ll highlight here came in mid-August—Davalan added a double and a walk to help propel the Loons to an 8-6 victory at home against the South Bend Cubs.
SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 25: Henry Bolte #33 of the Athletics reacts after hitting a two-run triple in the bottom of the sixth inning against the Houston Astros at Sutter Health Park on September 25, 2026 in Sacramento, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Good morning everyone!
The Rookies of the Year were announced yesterday and predictably standout first year center fielder Henry Bolte did not win the annual award. That honor went to Detroit shortstop Kevin McGonigle, who more than deserved it this year.
That said, Bolte ended up getting just one fifth-place vote, which puts him in a tie for 12th place among AL rookies. It was a strong year all around from the rookies in both leagues so the competition was stiff for Bolte, but it still feels low for him to finish there. Bolte provided solid defense in center field while slashing .277/.359/.405 while getting double digit home runs (11) and stolen bases (21). He was a spark plug atop the lineup that got plenty of rallies going and the energy he brought everyday kept this team from truly bottoming out.
And that’s with not beginning the year in the big leagues. It wasn’t until a few weeks after Denzel Clarke suffered an injury did Bolte finally get his shot and he made the most of it. One can’t help but wonder if Bolte were on a contender if he’d have gotten more points in the overall voting for Rookie of the Year. Not saying he should have won, but A’s fans know how important he was for the 2026 A’s as a rookie.
He’ll be just as important this coming season as he’ll presumably be the starting center fielder beginning his sophomore season. The jury is still out on what the club is planning to do with Clarke heading into next year. Some assumption has been that a change of scenery would be best for both sides with Bolte now the long-term option in center. It’s going to be fun watching Bolte become more confident as a major leaguer and get comfortable. And to think, he’s still just 23 years old.
The GM meetings continue today in Las Vegas. As does award season. Today the Manager of the Year awards will be dished out to the best skippers in each league. Pat Murphy is a strong contender after leading the Brewers to the #1 seed (and eventually the World Series, but postseason doesn’t count for awards). And in the American League old friend Stephen Vogt could be looking at his third straight award after leading the Guardians to the AL Central title, though Rays manager Kevin Cash could give him a run for his money. We’ll find out tonight!
The Las Vegas A’s ballpark looked huge in the renderings. Now that the roof is taking shape, a lot of people in the comments are saying it looks smaller than they pictured. Some are already wondering how deep the outfield will be and whether this’ll be a home run park.
KANSAS CITY, MO - SEPTEMBER 25: Kansas City Royals manager Matt Quatraro as seen before a MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and the Kansas City Royals on September 25, 2026, at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
I was recently thinking about an article on my favorite non-Royals Review website, FanGraphs. In it, Ben Clemens goes to great lengths to analyze the old adage – one I’ve often repeated – that if you keep putting new guys in the game, you are eventually going to run into one who doesn’t have it. You really should read the whole thing, but this part has stuck with me:
Second, relievers are more likely to be in good form, too. Six arms means six chances to draw someone who turns in a clunker, but it also means six chances to draw someone who’s red-hot. And while we think of blowups as largely driven by pitchers not having it, the converse is true too. A pitcher who’s really locked in on a given day is less likely to allow a blowup.
He went on the Effectively Wild podcast to discuss his findings, and elaborating that there seems to be an assumption that a reliever will put up zeroes unless they don’t have it. But that’s simply not the case. Reliever ERA in 2026 was 3.48 across all of MLB. That means that you’d expect a run to score in approximately one out of every three innings. The lowest individual ERA among pitchers who threw at least 50 innings in relief was Louis Varland at 1.27. So no pitcher who is perfect – even the best pitchers occasionally allow runs.
And I got to thinking: that applies to managers, too. There is an expectation that managers will never make mistakes. But every manager is going to make a mistake. They’re human. And we have learned over the past few years that even computers can’t be perfect. So why would we expect that from humans?
This is the flowchart too many fans use:
This is the one they should be using.
And even that’s far too simplified, but it’s light-years closer to how we should actually be thinking about things.
One year of ABS challenges is complete
Earlier this year, I engaged in a bit of a debate with Matthew LaMar over whether the Automated Ball Strike System (ABS) was improving the sport of baseball. At the time, I thought it was accomplishing the goal, and I was content to leave it where it was. As the year continued and teams began to figure out how they wanted to implement it, however, a few patterns emerged.
The first was that while some teams, though not all, could be quite aggressive when they had both challenges remaining, the moment they lost their first challenge, the last one would be held in reserve for only the most egregious of calls. This led to a lot of calls still being wrong because teams were afraid of having no challenges in the biggest moments to counter the worst calls. The second thing that changed is that we saw fewer and fewer batters challenging pitches. It turns out that catchers have a much better view of whether a pitch is a ball or strike and could be correct more often, so teams decided that mostly saving challenges for the guys most likely to get it right was the correct way to do things.
This means there is a new advantage for pitchers in a league that’s already so dominated by defense that MLB is testing increasing infield alignment restrictions, adding outfield alignment restrictions, and implementing automated check swing evaluations that are far more lenient than umpires currently allow.* But it also made me think about “the human element.” I came to the conclusion that the human element is important when the thing they are doing is the point. Computers are terrific for filling in the gaps and supporting that. When it comes to baseball, the point is the entertainment of the athletic competition on the field. The only reason umpires ever got involved in the first place was to remove bias and add perspective to facilitate the playing of a fair game. In the case where a computer can perform that sort of facilitation better than a human, we should let the computers handle it.
*I spoke about this on the linked podcast, so I won’t go into too much depth here, but I also think a sport that is dominated by strikeouts should be more lenient with check swings.People complain that swings aren’t properly defined in the rulebook, but the rulebook says that if the umpire determines the player attempted to strike the ball, it’s a swing. Most check swings are decidedly the batter attempting to not strike the ball.We’ve just grown used to it being called differently from what the rulebook says, much like how there was always a length of time allowed between pitches that wasn’t enforced, just in the opposite direction.
There is a reason that we use timers for the pitch clock rather than have the umpires do a countdown themselves. The computers are better at it. Similarly, computers are better at knowing whether a pitch is a strike or a ball, so they should do it. Another similarity between these two things is that the pitch clock timer doesn’t call the penalty on the batter or pitcher; that’s still the umpire’s job. And it should still be the umpire’s job to announce the balls and strikes. He or she should just be getting the answer from the computer instead of making the decision based on a more limited perception. Games should not be turning on whether a team used their challenges at the wrong moments; that’s not what we’re here to see. We’re here to see if a pitcher can paint the black in a key moment or if a hitter can squeeze one through the infield.* The sport should be leaning into the latter thing more.
*That, by the way, is why I’m in favor of extremely limited shifting. I want players to be getting outs because they’re athletic, not because their front office can crunch numbers the best to ensure they’re already standing in the correct place.Players should want that, too. Defensive skill would become much more valuable if it couldn’t be replaced by equations performed in the front office.
Royals Hall of Fame, Part 2
Last week, I wrote a bit about how crowded this year’s Royals Hall of Fame ballot is. I also posted a ranked-choice ballot to allow everyone to rank the case for each player rather than trying to select five. 59 of you responded, so here are some results.
The top five candidates, in order, were Zack Greinke, Carlos Beltrán, Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, and Wade Davis. I can’t find exceptional fault with those results even though I voted differently. Here’s the full order:
Zack Greinke
Carlos Beltran
Lorenzo Cain
Eric Hosmer
Wade Davis
Mike Moustakas
Greg Holland
Billy Butler
Joakim Soria
Kelvin Herrera
Alcides Escobar
Ian Kennedy
A handful of you figured out that you didn’t have to vote for everyone and could remove candidates from the ballot if you didn’t want them to even receive partial credit. One of you who figured that out voted only for Zack Greinke. Seems like a sad life to me, but as long as you’re satisfied, I guess that’s fine.
Zack Greinke was the runaway favorite, though, and I will be shocked if he isn’t actually elected. After him, Lorenzo Cain actually got the most first-place votes, but Beltrán had so many more second-place votes that he edged him out – I think there’s absolutely a world where both of them get in, too. From there, it was a big jump down in support to Hosmer and Davis, then another big jump down to Moustakas, another to Holland and Butler, and then big leaps down the rest of the way.
Based on this, I kind of expect everyone under Holland, at least, to fall off the ballot this year. That sucks for Herrera and Butler especially, to me. But that’s what the Veterans Committee is for. I expect both would get in eventually via that committee; I just don’t know how long it will be before that happens.
DETROIT, MICHIGAN - SEPTEMBER 27, 2026: Kevin McGonigle #7 of the Detroit Tigers hits a solo home run during the seventh inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Comerica Park on September 27, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by George Kubas/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
Hello everyone!
It’s a Tuesday and the GM Meetings have kicked off in Las Vegas, so hopefully we begin to see some real offseason traction this week.
Let’s get to all of the latest news as you get your day started.
Red Sox legend Pedro Martinez made his plea to the players and the owners to resolve their issues before we lose games in 2027 — remembering how the 1994 strike caused severe damage to the sport.
PHILADELPHIA, PA - CIRCA 1980: Catcher Bob Boone #8 of the Philadelphia Phillies in action during an Major League Baseball game circa 1980 at Veterans Stadium in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Boone played for the Phillies from 1972-81. (Photo by Focus on Sport/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Bob Boone, longtime major league catcher and manager, has passed away, per reports. He was 78.
Boone spent 19 years in the major leagues. Drafted out of Stanford by the Philadelphia Phillies in 1969, Boone got a cup of coffee in 1972 before becoming the Phillies’ regular catcher in 1973. He finished third in the National League Rookie of the Year voting that season, tied with Dan Driessen and Elias Sosa, with Gary Matthews finishing first and Steve Rogers second in what was an especially strong class, which also saw Ron Cey, Johnny Grubb, Davey Lopez and Richie Zisk receive votes.
Boone was his team’s starting catcher every season from 1973 through 1989, when he caught an American League high 129 games at the age of 41 for the Kansas City Royals while winning his 7th Gold Glove. Boone was remarkably durable, even as he aged — he caught 121 games for the Angels in 1988 in his age 40 season, and is the only player to have caught at least 120 games in a season in his 40s. There have been just five seasons in major league history where a player who is 38 or older has caught at least 120 games in a season — Carlton Fisk, in 1987, at the age of 39, and Boone’s age 38-41 seasons.
Boone was a fixture behind the plate for the Phillies for almost a decade, including their three straight division title teams from 1976-78, as well as the 1980 team that beat the Kansas City Royals in the World Series for the Phillies’ first ever World Series title. Despite his being an excellent defensive catcher, the play he’s best known for is a dropped foul pop up in Game 6 of the World Series that Pete Rose snagged before it hit the ground:
Boone was acquired by the California Angels, another team striving to win their first World Series, after the 1981 season. He spent the next seven seasons as the Angels’ primary catcher, with the Angels advancing to the ALCS in 1982 and 1986. Boone was behind the plate when the Mike Witt and Donnie Moore each gave up two runs homers in the top of the ninth of Game 5 of the ALCS, turning a 5-2 Angels lead into a 6-5 deficit, and then led off the bottom of the ninth with a single that led to pinch runner Ruppert Jones scoring the tying run that sent the game into extra innings.*
* Boone’s replacement behind the plate was the Angels’ backup catcher, and future Rangers coach and manager, Jerry Narron.
Had the Angels won that game, they would have advanced to play the New York Mets in the World Series. Instead, Dave Henderson, who homered off of Moore in the ninth, hit a sacrifice fly off of Moore in the 11th to give the Red Sox a 7-6 lead. Calvin Schiraldi shut down the Angels in the bottom of the 11th, and then Boston romped in the final two games at Fenway to advance to the World Series.
The 1986 postseason was one of the most memorable in MLB history, with Boston coming back against the Angels down 3-1 in the series and 5-2 in the ninth of Game 5, the bitter six game NLCS between the Mets and Astros that featured a 12 inning Game 5 and a 16 inning decisive Game 6, and then the Mets/Red Sox World Series.
Boone spent three more seasons with California after that before joining the Kansas City Royals in 1989. Age finally caught up with him in 1990, when he missed two months due to injury and appeared in just 40 games in his final season in the majors.
Boone’s 2225 games behind the plate are the third most in major league history, behind Pudge Rodriguez (2427 games) and Carlton Fisk (2226). His place in the rankings seems safe for the foreseeable future, as Salvador Perez, the active catcher with the most career games caught, trails Boone by almost 800 games. Along with his 7 Gold Gloves and third place Rookie of the Year finish, Boone appeared in four All Star Games and twice received MVP votes. His 27.4 career bWAR places him 49th all time among catchers.
Boone had two stints as a major league manager, with the Kansas City Royals from 1995-97 and the Cincinnati Reds from 2001-03, though he was not given much to work with with either club. As a manager, he never made the playoffs or finished above .500, and had a career 371-444 record.
Boone is part of a lineage of one of the most successful multi-generational families in major league baseball. His father, Ray Boone, had a 13 year career, mostly with Detroit and Cleveland, as an infielder, making two All Star Games and finishing as high as 8th in the MVP voting. Bret Boone’s sons, Bret and Aaron, had successful major league careers as well. Bret, you may recall, had a brief stint last year as the Rangers’ hitting coach, and Aaron is the manager for the New York Yankees.
Bob Boone, the most accomplished member of a three-generation baseball family that's impacted Major League Baseball since 1948, has died.
Boone was 78.
The son of All-Star infielder Ray Boone and the father of current New York Yankees manager Aaron Boone and two-time All-Star Bret Boone, Bob Boone was a four-time All-Star catcher and star of the Philadelphia Phillies' 1980 World Series champion team, the first in club history to win the Fall Classic.
He played 19 years in the major leagues, moving on from Philadelphia to serve as the fulcrum of a California Angels squad that twice came within a game of the World Series, in 1982 and 1986. He finished his career with two seasons in Kansas City, retiring in 1990.
Yet the family's story was only reaching its midpoint.
After serving three years in the military during World War II, Ray Boone debuted on the last Cleveland team to win a World Series, in 1948. He enjoyed a 13-year career that included All-Star appearances in 1954 and '56. Just one month after Cleveland won the 1948 World Series, Ray's legacy would continue: Bob Boone was born in San Diego.
Boone eventually attended Stanford and was a sixth-round pick of the Phillies in 1969. He'd reach the majors at 24, in 1972.
Just two months before the Phillies drafted him, Boone's wife, Susan, gave birth to Bret Boone and Aaron would follow in 1973. Like their dad, Bret and Aaron were born in San Diego County and eventually grew up two hours north in Orange County as their dad became a veteran beacon for the Angels.
He served as a manager for the Kansas City Royals from 1995-97 and the Cincinnati Reds from 2001-03, managing Aaron for nearly three seasons in Cincinnati before the club traded him to the Yankees, where he'd hit his notorious pennant-winning home run in ALCS Game 7 later that year.
At the 2002 All-Star Game in Miwaukee, the generations were united in most glorious fashion, Aaron representing the Reds as an NL All-Star, Bret repping the AL as a Seattle Mariner, both posing for photos with Bob and Ray, the first family to send three generations to a Midsummer Classic.
Boone would continue in baseball, working in various capacities as a scout and special assistant, most notably in recent years with the Washington Nationals, earning a championship ring for their World Series title in 2019. Meanwhile, Aaron was named Yankees manager in 2018 and even as Bob stepped away from the game, he and Susan would watch Aaron's Yankees play from their home in California, according to Scott Miller's 2025 book Skipper: Why Baseball Managers Matter.
Bob and Aaron would often recount that night's game, thanks in part to the three-hour time difference.
"I would say it's actually been one of the neat things about this job I've enjoyed the most," Aaron Boone told Miller in Skipper. "Almost every night, especially when I'm at home, I'll call him on the drive home because he watches every out of every game. He absorbs it.
"It's less about the Xs and Os. It's more just talking about the game and it allows us to connect. It's more about being a supportive dad, passionate over every detail."
The 2026 General Managers' Meeting welcome reception on Monday, November 9, 2026, in Henderson, Nevada. (Photo by Lucas Peltier/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Once the final out was recorded and the Milwaukee Brewers were crowned World Series champs, the Major League Baseball offseason officially began. It is never too early to speculate on which players could be dealt this winter.
The first important date on the offseason calendar is the General Manager Meetings, which begin today and will go through Thursday in Las Vegas. A sense of urgency has been added to this year’s meetings because the Collective Bargaining Agreement will expire on Dec. 1, and an owners’ lockout will take effect.
Subsequent events like the Winter Meetings could be cancelled if labor talks stall. Thus, the GM Meetings might be the only time when teams can discuss potential trades before a work stoppage.
The San Diego Padres are looking to build a quality starting rotation and will be aggressive to secure the best 1-2 tandem in baseball. I will not bore you about the potential suitors for Michael King; I assume he will return to San Diego. At the end of the day, the Padres still need to add another proven starter this offseason.
Tampa Bay Rays Drew Rasmussen: a possible trade option
Offseason media speculation has centered on the Tampa Bay Rays potentially dealing their No. 1 starter, Drew Rasmussen, in the coming months. Team president of baseball operations Eric Neander has refuted the reports and exercised the Rays’ option on Rasmussen’s contract for next season.
The right-hander will earn the highest single-season salary in franchise history ($20 million). Keep in mind, the front office is very budget-conscious when building a roster. Neander and his staff are uncomfortable committing such a high salary to one player. Projections show the franchise’s financial instability will persist until the team moves into its new home in 2029.
Rasmussen went 18-6 with a 2.60 ERA, striking out 205 batters over 202.1 innings pitched. He is eligible to become a free agent next offseason, and the Rays have been down this road before. They traded Tyler Glasnow to the Los Angeles Dodgers in Dec. 2023.
The return could be a minor leaguer who is under team control.
Friars aim to re-sign Ty France
San Diego could be in the market for another bat if Ty France leaves via free agency. Last season, he more than exceeded expectations with his production at the plate (.272 with 21 HR and 72 RBI). France is expected to be a hot commodity in free agency, especially if teams are looking to shore up their infield defense.
In 2025, the Padres’ infield was below-average defensively, but their ranking improved significantly with France anchoring first base. The former Gold Glover doubled his Outs Above Average and Fielding Run Value metric total last season.
The first baseman has made it clear he wants to end his playing career in San Diego. But France has to gauge interest from other clubs before committing to a new deal. However, second-tier free agents like him could struggle to land a lucrative contract.
Jacob deGrom fits as a top rotation trade target
To prepare for a potential salary cap, the Texas Rangers plan to shed big-money contracts and cap their 2027 payroll at $192 million. So, one of their high-priced stars will have to be dealt this offseason.
The most logical candidate is Jacob deGrom, who is owed $37 million next season and has a $20 million team option for 2028. But he holds a full no-trade clause and has vetoed a deal to the Atlanta Braves at last summer’s deadline.
Few teams can take on that amount of money unless the Rangers eat a portion of the salary; the Padres could be a willing trading partner if the price is right. They may only have to give up a low-level minor leaguer in a potential deal.
deGrom is one of the true dominant starting pitchers of his era. In 13 Major League seasons, he is 107-76 with a 2.97 ERA. You cannot argue with success.
After battling through an injury-laden career, the two-time Cy Young winner has rebounded to make 62 starts over the last two seasons. Unfortunately, his ERA jumped to 4.21 in 2026. deGrom can still shut down opposing lineups with an exceptional arsenal. He pairs a high-90s four-seam fastball and a mid-90s slider to keep batters off balance.
A move to San Diego makes sense for both sides. Pitching the majority of his starts at Petco Park could earn him a third Cy Young Award.
No one knows how baseball will look until a new CBA is signed. Big free-agent contract signings may be frowned upon, but the trade market is predicted to boom.
Expect several bold, crazy rumors that will be hard to believe before the Friars actually make a move.
Padres News:
Jackson Merrill had an up-and-down season in 2026, but he finished the year strong. See what grade he received for those efforts from Lincoln Zdunich of Gaslamp Ball.
BOSTON, MA - MAY 22: Bob Boone #8 of the Kansas City Royals takes a swing during a baseball game against the Boston Red Sox on May 22, 1989 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Bob Boone, a four-time All-Star catcher who spent two seasons as a player with the Kansas City Royals before managing the club for parts of three seasons, has died at the age of 78, according to a social media post from his family. The son of All-Star infielder Ray Boone, and the father of All-Star infielders Bret and Aaron Boone, the Boones were the first family to have three generations of MLB players.
RIP Bob Boone, the great Gold Glove, All Star and World Series champion catcher, who passes away at 78. Condolences to wife Sue and sons Aaron and Bret Boone. What a marvelous man and privilege and honor to know.
Bob Boone was one of the most accomplished defensive catchers of his generation, winning seven Gold Glove Awards over a 19-year playing career. He was originally drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies after a standout career at Stanford. He he finished third in Rookie of the Year voting and was a three-time All-Star with the Phillies. He faced the Royals in the 1980 World Series as a catcher for the Phillies, hitting .412 (7-for-17) in the series for his only championship.
He moved onto the Angels in 1982, helping them win the division in their first year, earning MVP votes, and winning a Gold Glove. He was an All-Star the next year, and over seven years in Anaheim, he set the club record for most games behind the plate.
He left Anaheim and signed with the Royals in 1989 at the age of 41. He appeared in 131 games and hit .274/.351/.323, winning his seventh Gold Glove and finishing with 2.4 rWAR. After 40 games in 1990, he retired.
After the 1994 season was cancelled during the work stoppage, the Royals hired Bob Boone as manager to replace Hal McRae and usher in a new youth movement. Despite trading away stars like David Cone and Brian McRae, the Royals were in the hunt for the new “Wild Card” spot for most of the season, until a poor September caused them to fall under .500 at 70-74.
Boone was a very cerebral manager, but would frequently clash with the media. He was criticized for constantly changing the lineup, and for employing “Boonieball,” as then-Kansas City Star columnist Jeffrey Flanagan would call his style of play. Boone finished just 75-86 in 1996, and was fired at the 1997 All-Star break after a 36-46 start, replaced by Tony Muser.
Boone would later manage the Cincinnati Reds from 2001-2003, although he never managed them to a winning season. He joined the Washington Nationals front office in 2005 and served the team until he retired in 2021.
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - SEPTEMBER 25: Seiya Suzuki #27 of the Chicago Cubs bats in a game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on September 25, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Welcome to the 2026-27 edition of Smash or Pass, in which we examine potential free agent and trade targets to determine whether the Red Sox should pursue them and what it would take to land them. Today, we start off with a Japanese import who’s helped the Cubs for the past few years with his pop from the right side of the plate.
I feel like the top priority for the Red Sox this winter (and probably spring…and maybe the summer…man this lockout is gonna suck) is pretty clear. The pitching staff is quite strong with a lot of guys already under team control for the foreseeable future, the steady defense is headlined by a trio of Gold Glovers, and the offense can get on base at a solid clip—their collective .319 OBP was good for 12th in baseball, so not too bad. But by that same logic, a team playing half of its games at Fenway Park posting just the 20th-best team slugging percentage (.397) and the fifth-least amount of homers (163) means that the area for improvement is pretty obvious. I know we need some pop, you know we need some pop, everyone knows we need some pop.
Enter Seiya Suzuki: a guy who’s probably not gonna hit 40+ homers for you, but a guy who just might be the ideal answer in a free agency class that leaves much to be desired.
Who is he and where does he come from?
He’s Seiya Suzuki (like I just said), a 32-year-old MLB vet who came to the bigs by way of the Hiroshima Toyo Carp in his home country of Japan. After spending close to a decade in the NPB, Suzuki signed a deal with the Chicago Cubs ahead of the 2022 MLB season.
Is he any good?
Yeah, I’d say so!
After posting a respectable .262/.336/.433 triple slash line over close to 400 at-bats in his rookie season, Suzuki has had four straight campaigns with at least 20 home runs, at least 70 runs batted in, and an OPS of at least .800. In three of those years—including 2026—his OPS eclipsed .840. The one exception in that stretch was, ironically, the one season where he hit more than 30 homers (2025). FanGraphs shows that Suzuki boasts the 17th-best WRC+ (128) since the start of the 2022 season, ahead of guys such as Bobby Witt Jr., Jose Ramirez, and Ketel Marte.
Suzuki’s put up these numbers despite the fact that he’s played half of his games at Wrigley Field. The Friendly Confines is a venue that’s graded out as the 22nd-friendliest place to hitters over the last three seasons per Savant and a park featuring a left field foul pole that’s an ungodly 355 feet away from righties trying to hit the ball to their pull side, the single deepest foul pole in the game. In case you need any more convincing, his career OPS on the road (.828) is 10 points higher than his OPS at home (.818) in spite of the fact that his OBP in both instances is exactly the same (.351).
And another thing worth mentioning: his 14 defensive runs saved in 2026 per Fielding Bible was also within the top 20 across baseball.
So, yeah. I like Seiya a lot. Spoiler alert, I suppose.
TL;DR, just give me his 2026 stats
Y’know, you ask it like this every year and you never consider how rude it sounds, but whatever. I won’t get worked up about it.
In 634 plate appearance this season, Suzuki put up a .270/.368/.473 triple slash for a .841 OPS. He hit 26 homers and 31 doubles en route to driving in 86 runs. He struck out just over 24% of the time (29th percentile across MLB) and he walked close to 13% of the time (91st percentile).
Why would he be a good fit for the Red Sox?
Imagine Suzuki’s consistent production from the right-handed batter’s box at Fenway Park, a place with a left field pole 45 feet closer to the plate and with a giant fucking wall at that part of the field. Need I say more?
Seriously though, the calculus should be pretty straightforward here. I hate to post spray chart slop, but look at Seiya’s spray charts from the last two years overlaid at Wrigley Field.
Just imagine those charts with Fenway overlaid instead of Wrigley (or, figure out a way how to do it since I couldn’t, lmao) and try telling me that he wouldn’t fit right in. The team needs some juice in the lineup to slot around guys like Willson Contreras, Roman Anthony, Adley Rutschman, Wilyer Abreu, and (hopefully) Curtis Mead. Suzuki works as either your primary DH or a guy you can cycle in at the corner outfield spots from time to time.
And if you believe the strides Suzuki’s made on defense are real, then that latter point—the one about how he can rotate into the outfield mix—only lends more credence to the idea of bringing him to Boston. We know Roman’s dealt with injury issues as of late, as has Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu (although Wilyer effectively played a full season in 2026). Health is something that any baseball club has to consider, of course, but wouldn’t you want your best possible nine to be ready to go for October? We saw in the Bronx what a lineup running on fumes could look like, and the year before that half of the organization was in the hospital. Bringing in Seiya Suzuki would allow manager Chad Tracy to get guys off of their feet a bit more often without sacrificing much during neither the top nor bottom half of innings.
Why wouldn’t he be a good fit for the Red Sox?
I have to be honest: I can’t think of a real firm reason why Seiya Suzuki wouldn’t work out for the Red Sox. Any point that I try thinking of has something to explain the concern away. Maybe you’ll think of something that I haven’t, but I think I’m pretty much sold on this dude.
The first point I tried to challenge myself with is the fact that the lineup would be pretty right-handed heavy. I like the idea of having those guys broken up, especially when you consider that most pitchers are righties. Suzuki would join Contreras, Mead, Trevor Story/maybe Franklin Arias, Caleb Durbin, and Ceddy as full-time right-handed hitters if he were to sign. Even at Fenway Park, that on the surface gave me pause.
However, Seiya’s not a guy who gets eaten up by right-handed pitchers.
Yes, he’s generally been better against lefties when he’s at the plate, but he’s no slouch when he’s at a platoon disadvantage. Seiya’s slugged over .450 against righties in each of the last two seasons, and he was actually a reverse splits guy in 2024 as his .854 OPS against RHPs outpaced his .829 mark against LPHs. In just over 2,100 plate appearance against RHPs, his career OPS is .808. That’s quite good, and CBO Craig Breslow should not be scared off by that righty-righty dynamic.
His hard hit rate took a dip in 2026—from almost 49% in 2025 to about 39%—but the bat speed was still the same as it was last year. I’m not freaked out by that.
Does he have any injury concerns, considering he missed the start of 2026 with a sprain in his knee? Well, he still was very productive, so I’m not worried about that either.
Maybe Suzuki’s tendency to strikeout gives you the creeps—he’s never had a strikeout rate lower than 22.3%. However, the fact that he still produces mixed with the fact that his walk rate has also grown every single year since he made his MLB debut is enough solace for me to ignore the Ks. It’s a weaker free agency class; if you’re gonna be scared off by someone who strikes out a bit more than the average bear while giving you an OPS that starts with an 8, maybe you don’t deserve nice things.
Perhaps you’re worried about how Suzuki’s contract will age? I dunno, man, I can’t get too tied up in that. We’re the Boston Red Sox and we’ve already got a lot of the core locked in, some of whom are still on pre-arb deals. Story’s money will be off the books in a year, as will Masataka Yoshida’s. I won’t even try to speculate about what the new CBA will mean for the team’s payroll, but I don’t think Suzuki’s hypothetical deal (more on that in a moment) should hinder us from trying to win a very winnable American League pennant.
Besides: the world might not be here in five years time. The fog is coming.
What would it take to get him?
Kiley McDaniel of ESPN projects that Seiya Suzuki will fetch a four-year contract worth $90 million in total, or $22.5 million per year. The Athletic’s Keith Law thinks he’ll get a five-year deal worth just under $30 million a season. FanGraphs’ crowd sourced contract projections, for what it’s worth, has Suzuki primed to ink a $96 million deal over the course of four years.
If those are any indications, Suzuki is probably going to be signing something like a four or five year deal with an average annual value of around $25 million.
It’s also worth mentioning that the Cubs did extend the roughly $23 million qualifying offer to Suzuki. If the Red Sox sign Seiya, Chicago will be getting draft pick compensation for their troubles.
Show me a cool highlight.
What’s the magic word? I let the TL;DR thing slide earlier.
*sigh* Please show me a cool highlight.
That’s more like it.
How about this big homer he hit against Korea at the Tokyo Dome during this year’s World Baseball Classic?
Smash or pass?
In the words of Kai the Hatchet-Wielding Hitchhiker…
Probably the easiest smash for me this winter. I’m scared about how much I like the idea of adding Seiya Suzuki to this lineup. He’s a feasible guy to sign and he’d immediately improve the offense while providing some defensive cover as well. The competition to sign him may be steep given that this free agent class isn’t too strong, but I believe this is a guy you stick your neck out for. Go get it done, Craig.
