Yankees Sequence of the Week: Paul Blackburn (7/12)

ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - JULY 09: Paul Blackburn #58 of the New York Yankees reacts following the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on July 09, 2026 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Yankees starred in one of the most drab All-Star Games in recent memory, Cody Bellinger picking up MVP honors for his two-run single in the first while Ben Rice also drove in a run. It means we are just a day away from the second half kicking off, the Yankees starting a pivotal stretch of 66 games with a marquee series against the two-time defending champion Dodgers. Before we get to that, let’s take one last look back with our final Sequence of the Week of the first half, and Paul Blackburn’s first appearance in this series.

We join Blackburn with one out in the bottom of the eighth on Sunday, the Yankees five outs away from what looked at many points during the series like an improbable sweep of the Nationals. The late heroics by the offense was the story of that series, achieving three straight comebacks in the eighth inning or later to sweep a series for the first time since they were the Highlanders sweeping the Cleveland Naps in 1910. The bullpen is light a few arms, particularly as closer David Bendar had pitched three innings to secure saves in the previous two wins, so it’s more than likely that Blackburn will be asked to record the final six outs of this one-run game. He has already retired Curtis Mead on a popup to open the frame, the lefty already having tied the game with a pinch-hit solo home run off Tim Hill in the sixth. That brings the ever-dangerous two-time All-Star CJ Abrams to the plate, the lefty shortstop in the midst of a breakout campaign with 20 home runs before the break.

Abrams has done the lion’s share of his damage against the fastball, so it is no surprise to see Blackburn start this AB off with a curveball.

Ali Sánchez sets a target in the zone, encouraging Blackburn to make this pitch look like a strike out of the hand to fool the hitter into swinging at a pitch that will break below the zone. Blackburn achieves both objectives, making Abrams think it’s an elevated fastball, resulting in a swing that is almost a foot over the top of a pitch that pretty much ends up in the dirt.

After tricking the hitter so effectively, it’s only logical that Blackburn attempt to replicate his execution of the pitch until Abrams shows he can adjust.

Blackburn executes this pitch to a similar spot as the first one. However, it is apparent that Abrams is already beginning to make the necessary adjustment to the curve. You can see the way he delays his swing, getting his front foot down later to match the timing of the slower curve, and he drops the bat head more in anticipation of the downward break, allowing him to ground it foul.

Blackburn has two choices here following that swing. It’s clear Abrams is now hunting the curveball, so you either throw the pitch he is looking for but in an unhittable location, or you throw a different pitch type down the same tunnel to deceive the hitter into thinking it’s another curveball — think an elevated heater with the same high aiming point as those last two curveballs.

Blackburn opts for the former option, bouncing a curveball on top of home plate to see if he can get Abrams to chase for a third straight time. Abrams displays excellent pitch recognition to take this curveball given it looked like it was traveling right down the middle out of Blackburn’s hand.

Despite not getting the chase he was looking for, Blackburn opts to throw a fourth straight curveball.

The dangerous part of throwing so many breaking balls in a row is that each subsequent one needs to be a little better than the one before it to nullify the adjustment the hitter is making with repeated exposure to the pitch. Alternatively, you could try to sneak one to a location where the hitter isn’t expecting it, Blackburn attempting to back-door one for a called strike three. After seeing three straight curveballs over the plate but below the zone, Abrams is indeed fooled by this curve commanded to the corner up and away, and he’s just able to get off an emergency hack to foul off the pitch and stay alive.

After four straight curveballs, Blackburn finally picks his spot to switch things up with a changeup.

Even though he didn’t get the chase he was after, I love this pitch selection by Blackburn. It shows Abrams a secondary offering with less downward break than the curveball and a pitch that breaks away from the batter rather than toward him, meaning Abrams now can no longer automatically eliminate any pitch that starts out aimed in the region from up-and-in to middle-middle

Indeed, that changeup functioned as purely a setup pitch to boost the chase potential of the curveball.

Blackburn throws his fifth curveball of the encounter, and it is by far the best one he has thrown. It looks like a strike right down Broadway before dropping almost five feet during its path toward home, Abrams unable to check his swing in time on a pitch that lands in the dirt.

Here’s the full sequence:

I love the savvy Blackburn displayed against such a dangerous hitter. He clearly read the scouting report on Abrams’ propensity to crush the fastball, so he stuck with his two most platoon-neutral offerings in the curveball and changeup. It also helps that those two pitches have been his most effective weapons this season, the changeup holding hitters to a .105 average and .184 SLG against while the curveball has been even stingier, opponents batting just .087 and slugging .087 against the Uncle Charlie. The curveballs he threw in this encounter in particular make me excited to see him use the pitch more — in addition to his excellent command of the pitch to chase areas below the zone, it’s objectively one of the best curveballs in baseball. It sports the third-most downward drop vs. average of any curveball in MLB, allowing it to rack up a 45-percent whiff rate, 39.1-percent chase rate, and 37.1-percent put-away rate — all top-15 marks among all MLB curveballs.

It is no exaggeration to say that Blackburn has been one of the most effective pitchers in baseball over the last two months. He has pitched to the lowest ERA (1.16) in MLB since his May 16th appearance against the Mets among all pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched over that span. He has become Aaron Boone’s Swiss Army knife relief ace not dissimilar to the role Luke Weaver played in his first season with the team, though they profile very differently in terms of arsenal and pitching philosophy. My college John was one of the first people on staff to pick up on Blackburn’s surging form back in the beginning of June, and his words have proven prescient, Blackburn developing into one of the team’s most reliable relievers capable of pitching in a variety of roles.

Today in White Sox History: July 16

CHICAGO - CIRCA 1995: Rob Dibble of the Chicago White Sox looks on during an MLB game in Chicago, Illinois during the 1995 season.
Pictured above is Rob Dibble, White Sox reliever, caught in a brief moment between temper tantrums, off-color comments and blind rages. | (Photo by Ron Vesely/Getty Images)

1920
With the White Sox down to their last two outs in the ninth, trailing the Senators, 5-4, Joe Jackson capped a rally by hitting an inside-the-park grand slam past (or over) Washington center fielder Sam Rice. That score, 8-5, would hold up as a winner for the White Sox.

It was at least the sixth grand slam in White Sox history (definitive records go back only to the 1912 season), and strangely the previous two (Happy Felsch, 1916, and Eddie Collins, 1919) both broke open tie games late. Four of the six grand slams were inside-the-park.

Jackson would had a second (and final) grand slam on Sept. 11, 1920, a deep blast well out of Comiskey Park, in one of the last games of his career.


1980
Bill Veeck’s ownership syndicate accepted offers to buy the White Sox. Sox broadcaster Harry Caray was one of those expressing interest, along with millionaire Edward DeBartolo Sr. Veeck would accept DeBartolo’s offer a month later, but the deal would get nixed twice by commissioner Bowie Kuhn and the other owners. Veeckeventually sold the club to Jerry Reinsdorf and Eddie Einhorn in January 1981.


1990
It was one of the funniest moments in White Sox history, as utility player Steve “Psycho” Lyons made a mistake that wound up on every highlight show in the nation. In the fifth inning at Detroit, Lyons bunted his way on, with a diving slide at first base to beat the throw. He then called time and completely blanked out as he started to drop his pants to get the dirt out of them. (Fortunately, he was wearing sliding shorts.) When he realized what he was doing, Lyons quickly yanked his pants back up and turned beet red with embarrassment. 

After Lyons was forced at second base later in the inning and ran back to the dugout, female fans in the first few rows behind the Sox bench, among the 14,770 at Tiger Stadium that night, began waving dollar bills at him.


1992
With two singles in a 5-4 win over Milwaukee in 12 innings, Lance Johnson began what would become a 25-game hitting streak — at the time the third-longest in White Sox history (remaining fifth-best today).

Over the course of the streak, the White Sox went 15-10, as One Dog sprayed 43 hits (39 singles, a double and three triples) and swiped 16-of-19 bags, slashing .439/.477/.510. The amazing streak ran his batting average from .261 to .305 — no small feat 100 games into the season!

Johnson finished 1992 at a downright pedestrian .279/.318/.363, so slumps were forthcoming after this fiery run. However, taking into account his stellar defense, his final value for the season was a career-best 3.8, almost a win better than his previous best and setting the stage for a miraculously good 1993 season.


1995
The Rob Dibble experiment ended with the White Sox waiving the mercurial reliever. Dibble signed with the White Sox in 1995 after six years with Cincinnati, interrupted by a broken forearm in 1993 and rotator cuff surgery in 1994. He saw action in just 16 games with Chicago, pitching to a 6.28 ERA and 2.372 WHIP, for -0.2 WAR. He was suspended by the team at least once (criticizing 1995’s replacement players), and ironically at the end of July was picked up by the same Brewers team he threw at on June 29, getting ejected after just one pitch.

Dibble’s locker neighbor for the 15-game stint in Milwaukee that would mark the end of his career? The player he threw at back in June, Pat Listach.


2000
The astounding rise of 36th round draft pick Mark Buehrle was made complete on this day, when the southpaw was called up from Double-A Birmingham after just 36 career games in the minors (and 16 with the Barons). Buehrle was inserted into the ninth inning of an 11-5 win over the Brewers in Chicago.

Buehrle struck out the first batter he faced, José Hernández, and got a second quick out before Milwaukee touched him for a short rally and a run. Buehrle would start his next three games, then work out of the pen to finish the season. From 2001-on, Buehrle’s next 490 games in the majors were all starts, as he ran up 59.1 WAR in a career worthy of the Hall of Fame. He finished his career with 48.9 WAR with the White Sox, seventh-highest total for a pitcher in club history.

Commemorating that and more, in 2025 the White Sox placed a statue of Buerhle on the concourse at Sox Park.


2003
As the designated hitter for the St. Paul Saints (owned by Mike Veeck), Minnie Miñoso became the first player to be active in professional baseball for seven decades. Miñoso drew a walk in his only plate appearance, in independent Northern League play, at age 77.


2013
Chris Sale got the win, as the AL beat the NL, 3-0, at the All-Star Game from Citi Field in New York. Sale pitched the second and third innings, facing the minimum six batters and recording two strikeouts. His strikeout victims were Carlos González and Troy Tulowitzki. He got credit for the win when the AL took the lead and scored eventual winning run in the top of the fourth inning, when he was still the pitcher of record.

 

Home Run Derby on Netflix seen by 5.3M viewers, lowest since 2003

The initial showing of the Home Run Derby on Netflix drew an average of 5.3 million viewers, making the event the lowest-rated since 2003.

That rating is courtesy of Sports Business Journal, as Netflix has yet to release its viewership number.

The derby at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, which was won by St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker, changed its format this year from timed to swing-based.

Those changes to the format didn't impress viewers at all. Last year's derby, which was broadcast on ESPN/ESPN2, was seen by 5.7 million and drew 5.5 million in 2024.

In 2003, the event on ESPN was watched by 5.2 million people.

For the next two years, if fans want to watch the Home Run Derby, they will again have to watch it on Netflix, as the streaming service paid $50 million a year to broadcast the event for three years.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Home Run Derby on Netflix seen by 5.3M viewers, lowest since 2003

Astros Prospects First Half Standouts

Fayetteville infielder Xavier Neyens (9) throws the ball during opening day of the Augusta GreenJackets at SRP Park in North Augusta, S.C., on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. The GreenJackets beat Fayetteville 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Katie Goodale - Augusta Chronicle/USA TODAY NETWORK | Katie Goodale / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Here are some prospects who have stood out so far in the first half of the season!

Jason Schiavone – Schiavone has put together a breakout season. The 23-year-old catcher got off to a hot start in Asheville hitting .289 with 17 home runs in 35 games. He earned a promotion to Double-A where he’s hit 6 more home runs. Overall, he has a .996 OPS with 23 home runs and 21 stolen bases in 77 games. He’s also thrown out 50% of base stealers in Corpus Christi.

2026 Stats: 77 G, .270 BA/.423 OBP/.573 SLG, 14 2B, 23 HR, 60 RBI, 21 SB, 149 wRC+

Drew Brutcher – Brutcher was signed by the Astros in March of 2025 after he went undrafted in 2024. The left-handed hitter has had a big year starting in Asheville where he hit .266 over 33 games. He was promoted to Double-A where his bat exploded as he hit .350 with 10 doubles, 4 home runs in 29 games. He’s hitting .304 overall this season.

2026 Stats: 62 G, .304 BA/.421 OBP/.478 SLG, 16 2B, 3B, 7 HR, 51 RBI, 10 SB, 132 wRC+

Pascanel Ferreras– Ferreras was Mr. Irrelevant in the 2023 draft, but he’s been extremely relevant this season. He started in Double-A and hit .263 with 3 home runs and then was promoted to Sugar Land where he took off. In Triple-A, Ferreras has hit .366 with 11 doubles, 2 home runs and 27 RBI. He’s hitting .318 in 61 games this season.

2026 Stats: 62 G, .318 BA/.403 OBP/.474 SLG, 16 2B, 3B, 5 HR, 43 RBI, 8 SB, 133 wRC+

Xavier Neyens – Neyens was the Astros first round pick in 2025 and he’s been as advertised in the early going. The 19-year-old has connected on 14 home runs and drawn 79 walks in 68 games, good for a 25.9% walk rate, this season in Fayetteville. He’s also added 16 stolen bases and was recently promoted to High-A Asheville. More on him here.

2026 Stats: 68 G, .240 BA/.449 OBP/.462 SLG, 7 2B, 14 HR, 38 RBI, 16 SB, 154 wRC+

Anthony Huezo – Huezo was a 12th round pick by the Astros in 2023 and after having a mini breakout in 2025, he’s really performed well this season. In 71 games in Single-A, Huezo has connected on a system leading 20 doubles and 4 triples while also adding 14 home runs and 30 stolen bases. He just got promoted to High-A.

2026 Stats: 71 G, .247 BA/.350 OBP/.506 SLG, 20 2B, 4 3B, 14 HR, 44 RBI, 30 SB, 125 wRC+

Justin Thomas – Another pick from the 2025 draft, Thomas was an 11th round selection. For High-A Asheville this year, the 22-year-old is hitting .263 with 16 doubles, 12 home runs and 24 stolen bases. He’s also collected 57 walks and has a .880 OPS through 72 games this season.

2026 Stats: 72 G, .263 BA/.417 OBP/.463 SLG, 16 2B, 3B, 12 HR, 52 RBI, 24 SB, 121 wRC+

Will Bush – Bush has spent time at catcher and first base this season and got off to a nice start posting a .883 OPS in April. He slowed down with an injury but turned it on recently and now the 22-year-old has 10 home runs and a .855 OPS through 56 games in Double-A this season.

2025 Stats: 56 G, .268 BA/.401 OBP/.455 SLG, 7 2B, 10 HR, 33 RBI, 9 SB, 130 wRC+

Javier Perez – Perez had a mini breakout in 2025 and this year he has been phenomenal for the Woodpeckers. He leads the system in innings with 76.2 innings and 89 strikeouts while posting a 3.17 ERA. He’s shown off exceptional command as well walking just 13 batters, good for a 1.5 BB/9.

2026 Stats: 15 G, 3.17 ERA, 76.2 IP, 55 H, 27 ER, 13 BB, 89 K, .195 BAA

Cole Hertzler – Hertzler dealt with a few injuries early in his career but is healthy in 2026 and showing why he was a 5th round pick in 2024. The right-hander started in Asheville and had a 2.72 ERA over 10 starts. He was promoted to Corpus Christi where he has a 2.97 ERA over 5 starts. He’s also allowed just 34 hits in 62.1 innings.

2025 Stats: 15 G, 2.74 ERA, 62.1 IP, 34 H, 19 ER, 35 BB, 75 K, .162 BAA

Jagger Beck – Beck was signed as an undrafted free agent following the 2024 draft. The 19-year-old is having a breakout season so far posting a 2.91 ERA while striking out 62 batters over 52.2 innings. He’s also posted a 2.04 ERA across 10 games since May 5th. Strong season for the big right-hander. More on him here.

2025 Stats: 14 G, 2.91 ERA, 52.2 IP, 45 H, 17 ER, 26 BB, 62 K, 10.6 K/9

Nick Potter – Potter was a 5th round pick for the Astros in 2025 and while he was a closer in college, the Astros have moved him to starter with good results. So far this season, the right-hander has posted a 2.19 ERA while striking out 55 batters over 49.1 innings. He should be in High-A soon. More on him here.

2025 Stats: 14 G, 2.19 ERA, 49.1 IP, 32 H, 12 ER, 26 BB, 55 K, .192 BAA

Thursday BP: Giants outright Eric Cerantola

Eric Cerantola throwing a pitch in a Royals jersey.
ARLINGTON, TX - MAY 29: Eric Cerantola #61 of the Kansas City Royals pitches during the game between the Kansas City Royals and the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field on Friday, May 29, 2026 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tenley Wright/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

The San Francisco Giants made a mild-mannered move over the All-Star break, quietly waiving right-handed reliever Eric Cerantola and outrighting him to AAA Sacramento. Cerantola, a fifth-round pick by the Kansas City Royals in 2021 who made his MLB debut earlier this year, had been claimed off of waivers earlier this month when Kansas City designated him for assignment. He appeared in two games for Sacramento before being waived, but, after being outrighted, he’ll surely appear in more.

It’s an odd move in that it brings the Giants 40-man roster down to 39 names, which is where it’s been for much of the season. Then again, perhaps the Giants figured that the All-Star break is the perfect time to sneak a player through waivers, since no teams are playing and thus incurring injuries and holes on the roster.

In other transaction news, outfielder Trevor Cohen — the organization’s third-round pick in the 2025 draft — is apparently joining teammates Gavin Kilen (their first-round pick in 2025) and Dakota Jordan (their fourth-round pick in 2024) in getting promoted from High-A Eugene to AA Richmond. They’re all scheduled to be with the Flying Squirrels when the Minor League season resumes tomorrow.

And in less happy transaction news, the Giants quietly released left-handed pitcher Juan Sánchez a few days ago. Sánchez nearly broke camp with the team after a stellar Spring Training in 2024, but has struggled with both injuries and performance since.

Pirates biggest improvement this year has been the offense

Jul 5, 2026; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Brandon Lowe (5) reacts while rounding the bases after hitting a home run against the Washington Nationals during the eighth inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Rafael Suanes-Imagn Images | Rafael Suanes-Imagn Images

The Pirates went from one of the worst offenses in the game last year to having the most runs scored at the All-Star break. That’s a massive upgrade from last year and a big reason because of that is the power.

In 2025 Pittsburgh finished last in numerous categories, including in runs scored (583), RBI (561), home runs (117), slugging percentage (.350) and OPS (.655). 

A lot of those numbers have been increased this year, like home runs with 125. They rank amongst the best in the other categories, such as first in RBI and hits. The Bucs are also second in OPS and third in slugging percentage.

Pittsburgh already having eight more home runs than they did last year is a big reason why they are 50-47 and in the wild card playoff race. The Pirates are able to help out their pitching depth this year which is something they were not able to do last year.

The Pirates adding players like Brandon Lowe and Ryan O’hearn has been a huge reason as to why their offense has been such an improvement. Lowe leads the team with home runs (20) and in RBIs (64). While O’hearn has 16 home runs and 63 RBIs which are both second on the team.

The Pirates become just the second team in league history that went from scoring the least amount runs in one season and then leading the league in runs the following season. The St. Louis Cardinals did so, going from worst in 1986 to first in 1987, where they made the World Series.

What has made this first half really impressive is that the Pirates are putting up these numbers with some important injuries. The players being center fielder Oneil Cruz, first baseman Spencer Horwitz, rookie shortstop Konnor Griffin and catcher Endy Rodrguez, all of whom have been great themselves.

Rookie Esmerlyn Valdez has been helping the offense a lot with 10 home runs in 27 games. Other players have stepped up as well, making this a top and formidable lineup in baseball.

If the Bucs want to stay in the race and snap their decade long playoff drought, the offense will need to continue to keep that pace. 

Three Phillies That Need to Improve in the Second Half

DETROIT, MI - JULY 11: Trea Turner #7 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws to first base during the game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on Saturday, July 11, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Izzy Rincon/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

All-Star week in Philadelphia has come and gone, which means it’s time to prepare for the unofficial second half of the season. The Phillies had a good first half considering they experienced a ten-game losing streak and fired their manager in April. They come into their second half opening series with the New York Mets two games behind the Atlanta Braves in the National League East with a record of 54-43. They currently occupy the second NL Wild Card spot and have a three-game lead for a spot in the postseason field. There is work to be done, but the Phillies have placed themselves right in the thick of the NL postseason picture.

That doesn’t mean there aren’t glaring weaknesses in this Phillies team though. The upcoming trade deadline will be the biggest chance to improve the roster, but thanks to the Phillies limited trade capital, they will also have to look inward for improvements. There’s no shortage of underperformers on the roster, but these are three that could make a real impact if they find a way to improve.

Trea Turner

Turner was one of the Phillies best players in 2025 when he won the batting title and dramatically improved his defense resulting in a 5.4 WAR season. He has regressed heavily in each aspect, as he’s hitting .236 and has the fifth most errors (12) of any shortstop in baseball which has resulted in a negative WAR total. His strikeout rate has spiked, up to 22.2% from 16.7% last season. His chase rate is back up in conjunction with that, up over 35% after cutting it down to 31.2% last season.

Defensively, Turner has lost all of the gains he made last season. He already has more errors than he had all of last season (8) and is on pace to come close to his brutal 2023 season when he led the majors with 23 errors. It’s even worse if you go by defensive metrics, as his -9 defensive runs saved are tied for second worst in baseball and his -6 defensive run value is fourth worst.

The good news is that Turner has begun to show a pulse offensively for the better part of the last month. Since June 15th, Turner is hitting .286 with a .759 OPS across 106 plate appearances. He started off July well but is currently 1 for his last 13 entering the break. The Phillies need Turner to rediscover some of what made him a batting champion in 2025, because it’s beginning to look like his strong defensive season last year may be an aberration.

José Alvarado

Alvarado looked to be having a renaissance in 2025 before a PED suspension and injuries completely derailed his season. The Phillies elected to pick up his club option for 2026 anyway, believing that he would rebound after a full offseason reset. That decision is not looking wise, as Alvarado is in the midst of the worst season of his career with a 6.82 ERA through 39 games. Opponents are currently slashing .307/.394/.464 against Alvarado. Yordan Alvarez and Yandy Díaz are the only qualified hitters with at least that slash line overall this season.

Despite a walk rate of 8.7% that is right around league average, Alvarado has struggled to throw strikes consistently. The in-zone rates of his two best pitches in the sinker and cutter are both down from his previous few seasons, with the sinker seeing a dramatic drop from three straight seasons over 60% to 53.3% in 2026. Opponents are also not swinging and missing at the cutter at the same rate as they have in years past while they are demolishing the sinker to the tune of a .342 AVG and .481 SLG.

However, there are signs that at least some of Alvarado’s struggles have been due to bad luck and, perhaps more astutely, poor defense. His 11.7 hits per nine is tied for the worst among all relievers with at least 30 IP and it would be the second worst among all pitchers if Alvarado qualified. His .440 batting average on balls in play is the highest in baseball and would be by far the highest in MLB history for a full season, surpassing the .364 BABIP Kevin Gausman posted in 2022. Alvarado’s FIP of 3.25 being almost half of his 6.82 ERA is the biggest evidence that he’s been victimized by the Phillies poor infield defense.

Where the ball goes when hitters make contact is largely outside of his control, but Alvarado can still control the part of his struggles that includes throwing more strikes and limiting contact. He has roughly over two weeks to find some way to improve before the Phillies will be forced to acquire a different left-handed reliever at the deadline.

Aaron Nola

This may seem to be the most obvious one of all and yet the one most people believe has the least chance of actually happening. Nevertheless, the Phillies are in desperate need of back of the rotation pitching and Aaron Nola isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, so the easiest path forward would be for Nola to occupy that role. It is much easier said than done of course, as Nola is having yet another nightmare season with a 3-6 record and a 5.76 ERA through 19 starts. His 20 home runs allowed are the third most in baseball despite Nola only logging 97 innings pitched. For context, Bert Blyleven holds the dubious MLB record of allowing the most home runs in a season with 50, but he did it in 271.2 innings. Nola is currently on pace to approach that despite being projected to throw under 200 innings. All of this has been the continuation of a trend of him being one of the worst qualified starting pitchers in baseball.

Nola has shown some signs recently that he may have gained some sort of footing, as in his last two starts, he’s thrown 5 IP with 2 runs and 7 IP with 3 runs allowed. Of course, those two starts were following one of the worst starts of Nola’s career when he blew a 5-0 lead and allowed 8 runs in 4.1 IP. The Phillies don’t need Nola to be an ace or even a mid-rotation starter at this point. What they need him to be is an innings eater that keeps you in games and saves the bullpen. The contract is likely going to go down as a net negative, but that doesn’t mean that the Phillies and Nola can’t salvage some value out of it.

The Phillies are 40-14 in games started by Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler, and Jesús Luzardo. They are 14-29 in games started by anyone else, including 9-10 in games started by Nola. They are 5-21 in games started by the fifth spot in the rotation that has been a smorgasbord of Andrew Painter, Taijuan Walker, Alan Rangel, and openers. Nola is no longer the same pitcher he was when he signed his seven year, $112M contract and is certainly no longer the pitcher that placed in the top 11 of Cy Young voting four times. But it would be a boon to the Phillies if he can stabilize himself as a quality back of the rotation starter as it would remove one of the question marks from the rotation.

Four questions the Rays need to answer heading into the trade deadline

Apr 21, 2026; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays out fielder Jake Fraley (17) strikes out during the second inning against Cincinnati Reds at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Pablo Robles-Imagn Images | Pablo Robles-Imagn Images

Sitting in position for a postseason spot, the Tampa Bay Rays will look to supplement their roster at the trade deadline. Of course, they’ll do some buying and selling, but at the major league level they will primarily be buyers. The moves they make will be determined by a few key things early this month.

What does OF Jake Fraley look like in his return from the IL?

Fraley is a steady veteran who owns a career 110 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. While this isn’t an outlier level of production, it does represent a meaningful improvement over Victor Mesa Jr. (career 83 wRC+ vs RHP) and Chandler Simpson (career 94 wRC+ vs RHP). However, his lengthy injury history makes it difficult to count on that production over the final two months – especially when considering he was recently removed from his rehab assignment.

Should Fraley give the Rays a reason to explore other left-handed outfield options, they would first look internally. Jacob Melton was a major acquisition this winter, but unfortunately he got hurt in late April and missed a large chunk of the season. He’s unproven at the major league level so there’s some risk. However, his near 70-grade power, plus speed, and plus defense at all three outfield spots gives him significant upside. Melton’s underlying data have taken a real step forwards this season so he may be ready for a role in the majors.

If the Rays decide to take a conservative approach and keep Melton in AAA, there are plenty of affordable left-handed outfielders. I’ve already written about Lars Nootbaar, but here are a couple more names:

  • MIN OF Matt Wallner (career 137 wRC+ vs RHP); recent struggles may have lowered the acquisiton cost
  • COL OF Troy Johnston (career 137 wRC+ vs RHP); plus hitter but comes with defensive questions
  • MIN INF/OF Kody Clemens (career 96 wRC+ vs RHP); 117 wRC+ against righties in his last 500 PAs

What does 2B Gavin Lux look like in his return from the IL?

Lux is feeling the best he has felt all year and is rehabbing in Durham. Similar to Fraley, Lux brings a steady veteran presence with him to a lineup. His 109 wRC+ vs righties for his career represents a real upgrade over what Palacios (92 wRC+ vs RHP) and Williamson (82 wRC+ vs RHP) are currently providing. I think Williamson’s best baseball is still ahead of him and moving him to short-side platoon work at 2B and back-up duties at SS could help him get into more optimal match-ups that improve his production.

As with Fraley, there’s a chance that Lux doesn’t get healthy or his production isn’t what the Rays need it to be. In that case, there aren’t really any internal candidates to come in and hold down bulk platoon work at 2B. Brayden Taylor could be that guy if he wasn’t still in AA. His performance this year has restored his prospect status following a swing adjustment late last season, but there’s a lot of risk in bringing him up to play most days without him having any AAA experience.

It looks like the Rays would explore an external candidate if Lux is unable to regain his form. Luis Arraez would be an ideal acquisition given his track record (126 wRC+ against RHP for his career), and his defensive improvements that have allowed him to play a solid 2B. Some other names they could explore are:

  • PIT 2B Brandon Lowe (career 134 wRC+ vs RHP); proven track record, but comes with injury risk
  • MIN INF/OF Kody Clemens (career 96 wRC+ vs RHP); 117 wRC+ against righties in his last 500 PAs
  • ATH INF/OF Zack Gelof (career 114 wRC+ vs RHP); reverse splits, but he’s currently injured

How will starter workloads be managed?

The Rays have several members of their rotation who will have varying degrees of innings limits. Nick Martinez is the only starter likely to reach 170-180 innings this season.

There are a couple internal options in AAA who could come up and cover innings in spot starts or bulk roles out of the bullpen:

  • Mason Englert; being stretched out and working as a starter after working in the bullpen for his ML career
  • Ty Johnson; throws only two pitches, but could be reliable as a bulk pitcher or multi-inning reliever
  • Michael Forret; strike throwing is inconsistent, but could be reliable as a bulk pitcher or multi-inning reliever
  • Joe Boyle; working in the bullpen for the rest of the season, could be impactful as a multi-inning reliever
  • Michael Grove; long-term plan is for him to start, but he could be effective in a multi-inning role for now

Brody Hopkins is still learning to pitch with the AAA baseball and he underwent some mechanical changes that will take time to get used to so I don’t anticipate him providing many meaningful innings in the majors this season.

The Rays don’t have enough impact pitching ready to contribute in the majors this season, so they’ll likely explore an external addition. I’ve already written about Tarik Skubal, Joe Ryan, and Freddy Peralta. All three have strong track records and could help the Rays in the top half of their rotation. Given the way baseballs are flying off the bat similar to 2019, a groundball pitcher like Sandy Alcantara could also be a good fit if the Marlins fall out of contention in the next few weeks. Jose Soriano, Sonny Gray, and Landon Roupp also fit this mold. The biggest barrier to acquiring a high-end starter at the deadline will certainly be the cost. The Rays have the prospect capital to afford a big name to add to their rotation without depleting their farm system.

Which Rule 5 eligible prospects will need protection?

No doubt the Rays will be looking to get ahead of their annual Rule 5 crunch this summer. They already dealt Ty Cummings for Casey Legumina, but they still have over 50 players who will be Rule 5 eligible. Not all of them will need protection, but some of the names in the upper levels include:

  • C Tatem Levins
  • 1B Tre’ Morgan
  • INF Cooper Kinney
  • OF Homer Bush Jr.
  • RHP Brody Hopkins
  • RHP Ty Johnson
  • RHP Michael Forret
  • RHP Owen Wild
  • DH/1B Xavier Isaac
  • INF Brayden Taylor
  • RHP Jackson Baumeister
  • RHP Santiago Suarez
  • RHP Gary Gill Hill
  • RHP TJ Nichols

There’s a chance that the Rule 5 Draft may not happen given the expiring CBA after this season, and that would certainly benefit the Rays because then they wouldn’t have to make a decision on these players. However, it would still be wise to look to move some of these prospects as part of a deal for help in the majors or for lower level prospects – like when Duncan Davitt and Ben Peoples were part of the package for Adrian Houser last season. The Rays could also look to move some of these Rule 5 eligible guys for a prospect in the lower minors – like when they traded Tobias Myers for Junior Caminero a few years ago.

The Rays’ deadline priorities will ultimately depend less on what other clubs make available than on the health of Fraley and Lux over the next few weeks. If both return and perform, Tampa Bay can focus almost entirely on adding rotation help and consolidating their minor league rosters ahead of a potential Rule 5 crunch. If either Fraley or Lux struggles/suffers another setback, the front office has enough prospect capital to address those needs externally while still pursuing an impact starter.

Mets vs Phillies Home Run Predictions & Parlay for Thursday, July 16

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This might be the most overanalyzed game of the MLB season, but that's not stopping me from betting on dingers with Christian Scott and Aaron Nola on the mound. Home runs and MLB player props are all live Thursday night on the standalone game.

Despite one of the shorter prices on the board, Juan Soto is still projecting +EV to go deep vs. Aaron Nola, who's one of the best home run matchups in baseball. On the other side, lefty bats have the edge vs. Christian Scott, and Brandon Marsh at +400 or better is making the card.

These are my favorite home run predictions for Thursday, July 16.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HROdds
Mets Juan Soto +234
Phillies Brandon Marsh+433
💲Today's HR parlay+1400

Mets home run pick: Juan Soto (+234)

I don't venture into this price range too often, but on a smaller card, with a +EV number and a ton of familiarity in the matchup, Juan Soto is making the card today.

He projects for nearly the same home run probability as Kyle Schwarber, but at a price roughly 50 points longer, according to Covers projections powered by THE BAT.

Soto has also seen plenty of Aaron Nola over his career, facing him 42 times and taking him deep five times. One homer every eight at-bats is an elite home run rate against any pitcher.

Nola has been a punching bag for hitters this season, ranking second-worst among qualified starters in HR/9, fourth-worst in HR/FB rate, and fourth-worst in BlastContact%. Since the start of 2024, left-handed hitters have accounted for 65% of the home runs he's allowed.

I'm playing this down to +200.

  • Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: ESPN

Phillies home run pick: Brandon Marsh (+433)

Lefties have done the most damage against Christian Scott, which gives us plenty of Phillies bats to choose from. For the price, it's tough to ignore Brandon Marsh at +400 or better. Kyle Schwarber's and Bryce Harper's numbers have been bet down too far, while left-handed hitters have accounted for 11 of Scott's 15 home runs allowed.

Marsh is a .300 hitter who was batting .335 to begin June. His BlastContact% sits just behind the big boppers in Harper and Schwarber, and he's not a guy looking to take a free pass with just a 5.2% walk rate. When he steps into the box, he's swinging.

He faced Scott back in late June, and his only ball in play was a hard-hit single. Half of the balls put in play against Scott that day were hit at 95 mph or harder.

Marsh has treated me well all season, and this is the price at which I'm jumping back in while everyone else is piling onto Schwarber and Harper.

  • Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: ESPN
Josh Inglis' 2026 Transparency Record
  • HR picks: 21-131, -21.63 units

Today’s HR parlay

Mets Juan SotoBet Now
+1400
Phillies Brandon Marsh

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Cardinals make fleury of minor league moves to open up opportunities

JUPITER, FLORIDA - MARCH 09: Chase Davis #72 of the St. Louis Cardinals reacts after hitting a home run against the Baltimore Orioles /d7i of a spring training game at Roger Dean Stadium on March 09, 2026 in Jupiter, Florida. (Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The St. Louis Cardinals had plenty to be excited about over the past week or so. With JJ Wetherholt inking an extension and Jordan Walker making history, the draft almost took a back seat to everything else over the All-Star break. That could have been the case if it were not for the Cardinals receiving rave reviews from experts everywhere for Chaim Bloom and Randy Flores’ work on the 2026 MLB Draft.

With the draft complete and the signing period underway, the Cardinals began opening up roster spots and moving people around to different levels. I will do my best to summarize them below, but I wanted to shout out MILBToday.com where I have been getting a lot of my St. Louis system trends and stats. Take a look over there and give a follow on Twitter if you like what the site does.

Chase Davis and Jurrangelo Cijntje promoted, others released amid organization roster shuffle

In good news, Chase Davis was activated and promoted to Triple-A Memphis as the former first rounder looks to get back on the organization’s radar. He is joined by Jurrangelo Cijntje, who the Cardinals have been more aggressive with promoting that most of their other pitching prospects. These spots came to be vacant after multiple releases and opt outs were triggered among the Memphis roster. Mason Molina has also steamrolled his way into Memphis and is definitely causing some intrigue for me.

Doubleheader savior Bruce Zimmerman officially elected free agency and Scott Blewett is planning to exercise his opt-out clause. Zimmerman was an expected loss after his solid season debut, but losing Blewett could be a bummer for a bullpen that will be undergoing some shuffling in the next couple weeks. He was putting together a solid season but the other pitching prospects around the veteran and the Cardinals needing roster spots, Blewett will look to catch on elsewhere.

Also getting removed from the roster was Bligh Madris, who will be going to the KBO, Jeremy Rivas, Jason Savacool, and feel-good outfielder Matt Koperniak who were all released from Memphis. So far, Brody Moore has been called up to fill one of those spots but other promotions are likely to follow.

Elsewhere, Zach Levenson is back in Springfield and maybe most excitingly, Brandon Clarke is in the FSL getting some mound work in. Clarke underwent surgery for a shoulder aneurysm early in the year and was left without a clear timetable, so this news is definitely welcomed. On the rehab front, it appears that Ixan Henderson is also back on the bump and will hopefully build off his great 2025 season when he is back to full health.

There may be plenty more that I missed or that will be coming up shortly, so feel free to drop in the comments and let us know! Also, feel free to add your exciting second half prospects to watch!

Thanks as always!

Mets vs Phillies Prop Picks for Tonight, July 16

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The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies kick off the second half of the season tonight, and I've found value in the MLB player props

Tonight's Mets vs. Phillies props include J.T. Realmuto, Juan Soto, and Bryson Stott. 

Read more in our Mets vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, July 16. 

Mets vs Phillies props for July 16

PickOdds
Phillies J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 total bases+155
Mets Juan Soto to hit a home run+220
Phillies Bryson Stott Over 0.5 singles-120

Mets vs Phillies player prop picks

J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 total bases (+155)

J.T. Realmuto may be hitting just .250 over his last six games, but he's showcasing gap-to-gap power. The catcher has a .250 ISO during that span, and a 42.9% hard-hit rate.

Realmuto has cashed the Over in total bases in three of his last four contests, and he has multi-base hits in back-to-back games.

New York Mets starter Christian Scott has a 4.90 FIP over the last month, and he's allowed a 46.7% hard-hit rate over his last three outings. He's also given up 2.03 HR/9 over that span. 

I'll play this pick up to +100. 

Juan Soto to hit a home run (+220)

I don't like to lean into the matchup too much, but it's hard to ignore here.

Juan Soto has faced Aaron Nola 45 times and recorded 12 hits. Five of those hits have been home runs, so he's consistently shown power against Nola. 

The right-hander is also struggling to limit the long ball. Over the last month, Nola has allowed 2.61 HR/9 while posting a 5.65 FIP. 

Soto owns a .302 ISO over the last two weeks, and he's gone deep four times in his last 13 games while posting an impressive 16.7% barrel rate. If Nola continues to make mistakes, Soto could very well punish him. 

I'll play this pick up to +200. 

Bryson Stott Over 0.5 singles (-120)

Bryson Stott is a base-knock type of hitter, and he was finding a rhythm before the All-Star break. The infielder has four hits across his last two games, and three of those were singles.

Stott has a .291 xBA across his previous seven games, and again, Scott has been vulnerable to hard contact lately. His primary offering is the four-seamer, and Stott owns a 46.9% hard-hit rate against the fastball this season. 

I'll play this pick up to -140. 

How to watch Mets vs Phillies and game info

LocationCitizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
DateThursday, July 16, 2026
First pitch7:10 p.m. ET
TVESPN

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Mets vs Phillies Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's MLB Game

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Welcome back, folks! Here's to the second half of the MLB season, which kicks off with Aaron Nola taking on Christian Scott in Philly tonight.

Let's dive into my Mets vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks for tonight's action. 

Who will win Mets vs Phillies today: Mets moneyline (+118)

Despite the first game back from the All-Star break being in the City of Brotherly Love, I think this is a letdown spot for the Philadelphia Phillies. Especially with Aaron Nola on the mound, as he owns a 6.61 ERA over his last three outings.

Meanwhile, New York Mets right-hander Christian Scott has been more than serviceable over his last three starts, posting a 3.38 ERA, 4.14 xERA and 1.13 WHIP. Before the break, the Mets were on a tear, sporting a 117 wRC+, .334 wOBA, .172 ISO, and .757 OPS over their previous 12 games. 

With all the theatrics and hype around the city over the last few days, this feels like a prime letdown spot for the Phillies. Pair that with the way Nola has been pitching lately, and the Mets should be in a great position to feast.

Covers COVERS INTEL: The Phillies have managed just a 93 wRC+, .135 ISO, and .684 OPS over their last 12 games.

Mets vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (-103)

With how poorly Nola has pitched this season and how hot the Mets offense was heading into the break, I want to be on the over.

Batters-Box projects six combined elite-rated bats and three more with strong ratings. Scott owns a poor rating in the default settings, while Nola carries a poor rating in the current season dataset. Both pitchers also grade out poorly in matchup hard contact, wOBA, and ISO.

I think most of the damage comes from the Mets, but Scott is due to give up a few runs as well.

Colby Marchio's 2026 Transparency Record
  • 2026 MLB Season: 303-565, -7.30

Mets vs Phillies weather

This evening in Philadelphia should be a scorcher, with temperatures around 93 degrees at first pitch and winds blowing out to left field at 11 mph. There's a 28% chance of precipitation, but the game should be just fine.

The heat should definitely give the long ball a boost tonight.

Mets vs Phillies odds

  • Moneyline: Mets (+120) | Phillies (-122)
  • Run line: Mets +1.5 (-160) | Phillies -1.5 (+156)
  • Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-102) | Under 9.5 (-100)

Mets vs Phillies trend

The Mets have covered the run line in nine of their last 16 games for +2.85 units and a 15% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies.

How to watch Mets vs Phillies and game info

LocationCitizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
DateThursday, July 16, 2026
First pitch7:10 p.m. ET
TVESPN
Mets starting pitcherChristian Scott
(2-1, 3.17 ERA)
Phillies starting pitcherAaron Nola
(3-6, 5.75 ERA)

Mets vs Phillies latest injuries

Mets: Luis Robert (Out), Marcus Semien (Out). 
Phillies: No key injuries to report.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Blogfather Saves The Day With Pearls Of Most Excellent Advice

SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 30: Henry Bolte #33 of the Athletics strikes out swinging in the bottom of the sixth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Sutter Health Park on June 30, 2026 in Sacramento, California. (Photo by Justine Willard/Athletics/Getty Images) | Getty Images

If the A’s have a terrific second half reversing all bad trends, we will be able to look at this “unauthorized coaching” article as the springboard that vaulted the team back to relevancy. Obviously, if the team continues to sputter it’s not my fault — who reads junk on the internet anyway?

The All-Star break offers a natural “reset” and no team could use one more than the A’s, who limped, tripped, and plunged into a well even Lassie couldn’t help with, dropping 9 in a row and 17 of 20 to achieve the impossible: falling off the radar in the AL West.

Hopefully, Zack Gelof’s and Nick Kurtz’ IL stints will be minimal and soon the A’s will be at least near full strength again in terms of their roster. But how to squeeze more out of a roster that struggled to hit (on the road), pitch (at home), and led for 6 pitches on the last 6 game road trip.

Here’s some of how (if you know these folks feel free to pass these pearls along)…

Henry Bolte

For whatever reason, possibly involving head movement and/or swinging too much with the top half and not properly aligning the bottom half, most every time Bolte pulls the ball it’s on the ground. This worked fine for a while as he beat out a bevy of weak bouncers and some of the harder ones got through the infield, but it is not a sustainable profile.

This was shown in the slump Bolte took into the All-Star break, 6 for his last 50 with just one extra base hit (a HR). That a .120 BA and .180 SLG.

The solution: Even if he can’t adjust your mechanics easily mid-season, simply a change in approach can allow Bolte to return to being an offensive force in the 2nd half. During his epic 12 for 12 XBH-a-palooza at AAA just before being called up, Bolte was rifling balls to RF and right-center. This has always been, and continues to be, his best swing.

Pitchers are exploiting Bolte’s desire to “turn on pitches” by running a lot of fastballs in on the hands and Bolte is responding by chopping a lot of weak ground balls to 3B and SS. Sliders and changeups away, unless hung, have never been good pitches to try to pull.

Bolte should embrace his strength and think “right-center”. This will have many positive repercussions all at once. One is that he will naturally become less interested in pitches that are in off the plate, curing him of one way pitchers are getting him out a lot lately. Another is that an off-field swing/approach allows hitters to see pitches that fraction of a second longer, resulting in generally better swing decisions. A third is that it plays to Bolte’s inherent strength rather than trying, in real time, to master a part of his game that does not come easily.

The beauty is that when you focus on your strength and it results in a lot of hard contact, more slugging, increased success, not only is it a confidence booster but pitchers lose a “way to get you out” and are forced to throw more strikes to the inner half (if you are routinely mashing strikes on the outer half). And with that increased confidence, perhaps without being so self-conscious or effortful about it, you might turn on some inside fastballs or spin left up and hit the line drives and fly balls to LF that are so hard to produce now.

If Bolte emphasizes a “right center field first” approach he will be in company with some truly great hitters, such as Miguel Cabrera, Edgar Martinez, and Michael Young. And it doesn’t have to be forever, but it absolutely should be for right now.

Jacob Wilson

I’ve made much of this in game thread comments but it warrants its own paragraph here. Wilson suffers for his own ability and confidence: he is sure he can “get to” any pitch and he has a gift for sometimes turning pitches off the outside corner or down at the ankles into base hits.

The problem is, just because you can hit a pitch doesn’t mean you are well served to put it in play. The reality is that Wilson has, many many times, been gotten out (or you could say gotten himself out) on two pitches: well in off the plate and very high out outside. These are pitches that when you do put them in play, it’s going to be a pop-up or a lazy fly ball.

My belief is this: yes, Wilson can be a decent hitter swinging at a lot of junk. He has a unique gift that might allow him to hit .280 with this flawed approach. Trouble is, as a .280 hitter Wilson’s value is compromised since he rarely walks and his slugging is not especially high. A .280/.320/.400 hitter is ok but not special.

The solution: My other belief is that if Wilson will just commit to an approach of “hunting strikes” he can hit .320, which in this day and age is elite. He has even demonstrated that for long stretches (2-3 months) he is capable of hitting at that level. Bump his BA .040 and suddenly we’re talking about a .320/.360/.440 hitter who plays a solid SS. Now that’s the player the A’s signed to an extension.

Jacob, we know you can hit a lot of bad balls and even poke some of them for hits. But if you truly “hunt strikes” and commit to trying to lay off pitches you can hit but are balls, you can be the player who earned the All-Star starting gig just one year ago.

Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom

Both Langeliers and Soderstrom have had excellent stretches this season and bad stretches. For Soderstrom he struggled mightily early before turning it on lately, and Langeliers has been in a funk since an incredible April. Both are essential cogs in the A’s hopes of having a plus lineup with depth and ample power. But neither has been as consistent as you would want.

The solution: Stop guessing, start reacting. Soderstrom and Langeliers share that too many times that are caught looking for a pitch and either looking foolish swinging at what they’re not being thrown or, just as often, watching a called third strike they could have mashed if only they had known it was coming.

To my eyes, both hitters are at their best when they simply react to each pitch as best they can and are at their worst when they anticipate one pitch only to be vulnerable if and when they guess wrong. Most recently we saw this in action during the White Sox series that was so forgettable for Langeliers, culminating in a critical at bat (runner at 3B, one out, 1-0 in the 8th) when looking fastball Shea was frozen by a curve center cut that he wasn’t looking for, then tried to swing at a fastball that turned out to be a chase slider. Resolving not to swing at another chase slider, Langeliers stepped back in…and watched a belt fastball that caught a lot of the plate.

These two hitters will take off if they get back to basics, a version of “see ball, hit ball”. Just react so that every belt high curve, every elevated slider or changeup, every fastball in your happy zone, gets properly punished. Of course you won’t recognize correctly every pitch, so you’re going to wave at some sliders in the dirt or get way out of in front of some changeups, but overall you will be much better off and so will the A’s.

Basic Hitting Strategies

There is one tendency that drives me crazy, because even as I watch game after game for decades I still don’t get it. It’s the compulsion to swing at high fastballs well above the top of the strike zone.

The solution: There is a very basic principle that can prevent hitters from falling into this trap. It’s a “truth” that should be ingrained in every hitter: if you have to raise your hands significantly to swing, you’re not swinging at a strike. This was actually taught to me years and years ago by the great Cal baseball head coach, Bob Milano.

He was right. The moment you feel yourself start to raise your hands, you are about to swing at a ball. That’s because every hitter’s hands set up no lower than the top of the strike zone, certainly at the point where they are actually swinging. So don’t raise your hands to go after a pitch and you have stopped swinging at a key chase pitch: the high fastball out of the zone.

Put Players In The Best Position To Succeed

Ideally, every player should be able to thrive under any conditions, but in reality this is just not the case. Recently the A’s have walked into some unnecessary trouble, giving Jeffrey Springs not one but two starts on a 6-game homestand in Summerlin, and last week moving JT Ginn up while he was battling a 2-week illness to both start and finish the 6-game road trip.

Opportunities to shuffle personnel in their best interests don’t always present themselves, but here’s an easy example in front of Mark Kotsay and his wacky coaching crew. The A’s have a brief 3-game homestand coming out of the All-Star break, a 4-day hiatus that allows teams to reshuffle their rotations as they please.

The SP you clearly want to minimize starts at Sutter Health Park is the lone remaining veteran, Springs. Starting Springs against the Nationals over the weekend would be yet again asking for trouble, whereas the rotation is so flexible at this moment that Springs could easily be penciled into the #4 spot opening the road trip to Arizona, a hitter’s ballpark but nothing like West Sacramento where Springs has an unsightly 6.79 with 16 HR in 54.1 IP.

The solution: So here’s one easy move the A’s could make coming out of the ASB: Let 3 of the young guns, e.g., Jump, Perkins, and Ginn, get the ball for the 3 home games and then trot Springs out there against the Diamondbacks — and focus on fastballs down and away. Why? Because one thing about that pitch and location is it rarely gets hit out of the ballpark. And lord knows that should be the first, second, and third emphasis for Springs, who leads the planet in HRs allowed.

Leave it to the A’s to wait until it’s too late to make necessary changes and then start playing good baseball. But better late than never and in the mediocre AL West, a suburb of the mediocre AL, string a few wins together and as the Red Sox can tell you, you never know when you might even find yourself being relevant again.

Go do all these things, A’s, and godspeed to you. If you can lose 9 in a row then you can win 9 in a row, and I highly recommend it. Let’s face it: if the team only loses 55 games this season, it’s probably going to be a fun ride after all.

Fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings update: Jacob Misiorowski, young arms fly to the top

The All-Star break is winding down, and the "second half" of the baseball season is about to begin, which feels like a fitting time for an update to my starting pitcher rankings.

Back in May, I published my final preseason version of these rankings, so you can reference that if you want to see how much my opinion on certain arms has changed. While some of the familiar names are at the top, a handful of young guns like Jacob Misiorowski, Chase Burns, and Cam Schlittler have vaulted among the league's elite arms. I have an article in the works (that likely won't come out until the end of the season) on why certain of our young preseason favorites hit and others (Eury Perez, Nolan McLean) didn't, but the short takeaway is that I may have previously focused too much on pure stuff and not enough on the effectiveness of that stuff, i.e. command. I think I remedied that a bit in this update.

It’s important to note that, even in a midseason rankings update, I only partially use surface-level stats when constructing my rankings. Yes, a pitcher's ERA, WHIP, or even SIERA is important in determining how well they have done and impacts, partially, how well we should expect them to do. However, I don't think we should ignore K-BB%, swinging strike rate (SwStr%), Ideal Contact Rate (ICR), or individual pitch efficiency in projecting how these pitchers will finish the season.

As always, the pitchers are split into tiers, and the tiers themselves are more important than the rankings inside the tiers, so I wouldn’t split hairs over a few spots in the rankings.I’ve also ranked these pitchers as if I’m doing a 12-team league, so safe but boring low-end starters take a hit in value, etc. Also, since there is much going on right now (and I have a weekly podcast with Nick Pollack where I discuss most of these pitchers), I'm not going to be able to give detailed blurbs on WHY each pitcher is ranked where they are.

OK? Ok, so let’s get started.

Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Mid-Season Rankings 2026

RankPlayerTeam

Top of the Line Aces

1Jacob MisiorowskiBrewers
2Tarik SkubalTigers
3Cristopher SanchezPhillies
4Paul SkenesPirates

Yes, this hasn't been the season you were hoping for from Tarik Skubal or Paul Skenes, but they remain top-tier starting pitchers, and you'd struggle to find starters you'd truly rather roster than them the rest of the way. Skenes saw his fastball velocity and spin rate go back up in his last start, so maybe we can close the book on that narrative. I know Cristopher Sanchez got hit hard in the All-Star Game and his final start before it, but we can't ignore what we'd done the past two years or what Jacob Misiorowski has done so far this season. This is the cream of the crop.

Aces

5Chris SaleBraves
6Jacob DeGromRangers
7Zack WheelerPhillies
8Dylan CeaseBlue Jays
9Cam SchlittlerYankees
10Chase BurnsReds
11Joe RyanTwins
12Yoshinobu YamamotoDodgers
13Logan GilbertMariners

You'd be pretty happy with any of these guys as the ace of your fantasy team. There isn't a lot of analysis to do here, and if you wanted to shuffle their names around in a different order, I think that would be warranted. The bottom line is that I don't believe these guys have the peak of the top four, but I think they are safer and potentially more dominant than the next tier. And I can't believe Zack Wheeler is here after that surgery, but he is, and kudos to him.

MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.

SP2 Studs

14Hunter GreeneReds
15Braxton AshcraftPirates
16Bryce MillerMariners
17Jesus LuzardoPhillies
18Drew RasmussenRays
19Logan WebbGiants
20Bryan WooMariners

I'd rather have these guys as my SP2 in a 12-team league, but they have the upside of aces as well, so they will work in a pinch or a deeper format. Braxton Ashcraft is maybe the most shocking name on this list, but the addition of the sinker gave him another weapon to hide his average four-seam fastball, and the breaking balls are really good. He told me that pitching out of the bullpen last year helped him to dial in his command and his ability to get strike one, and you can see that playing out this year. He looks great. As does Bryce Miller, and maybe I was too focused on last year's elbow injury.

Hunter Greene has been back for two starts, and the second one looked electric. Remember that his surgery was to have bone spurs removed, not because he had ligament damage or anything like that. Bryan Woo is here as more of a hope than anything, but I truly believe he is too good a pitcher not to rebound into a top 20 arm.

High-End SP2 w some volatility

21Gavin WilliamsGuardians
22Nathan EovaldiRangers
23Max MeyerMarlins
24Shohei OhtaniDodgers
25Nolan McLeanMets

This is a tier of pitchers who have clear ace upside but plenty of question marks either about health, team context, or inconsistency. Shohei Ohtani would be higher, but I need more information on this knee issue. All we heard was that imaging on his knee came back clean, but he has discomfort, and it's the same knee he's previously had surgery on. If he were on another team, I wouldn't mind so much, but it's the Dodgers, and they don't need him to pitch every 5th or 6th day right now. They need him in October. I could see a world where they are extremely cautious with him on the mound, and he doesn't make as many starts the rest of the way as the guys above him.

Max Meyer and Gavin Williams appear to have taken another step in their development, and I still think it's there for Nolan McLean.

Floor SP2 Plays

26Hunter BrownAstros
27Gerrit ColeYankees
28Parker MessickGuardians
29George KirbyMariners
30Kevin GausmanBlue Jays
31Sonny GrayRed Sox
32Framber ValdezTigers
33Sandy AlcantaraMarlins

These are all pitchers that I like more as SP2s right now because I don't think they have ace-tier upside anymore. Gerrit Cole and Hunter Brown don't look like the same aces they were before their respective arm injuries, but they are both clearly talented pitchers. The same goes for Sandy Alcantara, who has rebounded into a solid mid-rotation fantasy starter. Sonny Gray, Kevin Gausman, and Framber Valdez are all veterans who we've seen do this before. There will be bad starts, but you will get mostly solid performances, and Parker Messick just feels like one of the safest floor arms out there.

I gave a presentation at First Pitch Arizona in November, and I said George Kirby was a fringe top 25 pitcher, based on his pitch mix and swinging strike rate concerns. I then proceeded to rank him 12th before the season because I'm an idiot. I've corrected that now.

Strikeout Upside With Some Volatility

34Eury PerezMarlins
35Payton TolleRed Sox
36Ryan WeathersYankees
37Kyle BradishOrioles
38Emmet SheehanDodgers
39Shota ImanagaCubs
40Nick LodoloReds
41Logan HendersonBrewers

All of these guys have the upside to finish inside the top 20 overall starters, but also have clear warts or a lack of track record, which adds some volatility. I wrote about Emmet Sheehan as one of my favorite second-half bounceback starting pitchers, and Logan Henderson just returned from the injured list to a Brewers rotation that really needs him (and his new sweeper). Eury Perez has also flashed his upside since coming back from his hamstring injury, and Nick Lodolo has looked good when his blister issues allow him to pitch. Kyle Bradish was ranked too aggressively because we forgot that his last healthy season didn't have the strikeout upside we saw last season, and Shota Imanaga has major home run issues, while Ryan Weathers and Payton Tolle are both learning and growing as pitchers but have the upside for truly dominant performances.

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Security Blankets

42Shane McClanahanRays
43Ranger SuarezRed Sox
44Foster GriffinNationals
45Griffin JaxRays
46Troy MeltonTigers
47Trevor RogersOrioles
48Justin WrobleskiDodgers

Sometimes you just need a starting pitcher that feels safe. That's what these guys are. I don't think Foster Griffin, Ranger Suarez, and Justin Wrobleski will pitch as well (stats-wise) as they did in the first half, but I think all three are rock-solid starting pitchers who will give you length and solid ratios. Griffin Jax and Troy Melton were two of the pitchers I was trying to add most often on the waiver wire weeks ago, and I love how they've developed lately.

Can You Trust the Flashes of Upside?

49Cade CavalliNationals
50Jared JonesPirates
51Freddy PeraltaMets
52Joey CantilloGuardians
53Casey MizeTigers
54Reid DetmersAngels
55Michael KingPadres
56Gage JumpAthletics
57MacKenzie GoreRangers
58Landen RouppGiants

These guys have all flashed upside at times this year, but have either struggled with consistency (MacKenzie Gore, Michael King, Reid Detmers, Landen Roupp) or a return from injury (Jared Jones) or their home park (Gage Jump) or have started to turn a corner because of a pitch mix change (Joey Cantillo, Casey Mize, Cade Cavalli). Then you have Freddy Peralta, who has just looked bad, but we've seen him look bad in the first half before, and he seems to always bounce back. I just can't put him any lower.

Probably Safe but Maybe Not

59Sean BurkeWhite Sox
60Dustin MayCardinals
61Matthew BoydCubs
62Emerson HancockMariners
63Nick MartinezRays
64Eduardo RodriguezDiamondbacks
65Ian SeymourRays
66Jake BennettRed Sox

I think these guys are safe, but they don't have the safety track record of the Security Blankets tier, so they wind up down here. As of now, I would trust all of these guys to be top-of-the-line streamers or solid "team streamers (h/t Paul Sporer) in most formats. I think Ian Seymour has the most upside, and we're seeing Emerson Hancock start to tire and regress, but none of these pitchers really need to be held if they start to struggle. If the safety seems to waver, move on to somebody else.

Chasing Upside

67Jose SorianoAngels
68Trey YesavageBlue Jays
69Taj BradleyTwins
70Jack FlahertyTigers
71Robbie RayGiants
72Will WarrenYankees
73Walbert UrenaAngels

This tier is all about upside. There is an argument that pitchers in the tier below them are better, and if you're looking for a starting pitcher with a safe floor, they just might be; however, these arms have more upside. We've seen Jose Soriano regress as his four-seamer is getting hit again, but we also saw what he can do in a good 4-7 start stretch. Same for Taj Bradley and Jack Flaherty, who are in the midst of one now.

Robbie Ray and Will Warren are not pitching well right now, and I've lost a lot of faith in Ray, but we're talking about the 70s right now. We know these guys have upside to far outproduce this when they're clicking. Maybe a trade will help Ray. Trey Yesavage is really struggling with his command, but there is talent in that arm. Walbert Urena has been a nice surprise, and that power changeup is legit.

Streamers and 15-teamers

74Peter LambertAstros
75Michael SorokaDiamondbacks
76Shane BazOrioles
77Michael WachaRoyals
78Andrew AbbottReds
79Shane DrohanBrewers
80Davis MartinWhite Sox
81Merrill KellyDiamondbacks

This title is pretty deliberately named, so you know how I feel about all of these pitchers. Davis Martin has already started to regress big time, and I know some people love Andrew Abbott, and he keeps outproducing what we think he will, but he's still a streamer for me. Michael Wacha is Michael Wacha; we know what we're getting by now, and Shane Drohan has been a nice surprise, but he has never thrown a full MLB season, so it's hard to know what to expect down the stretch.

Sure? Let's Give It a Try, but it's Scary

82Roki SasakiDodgers
83Connor PrielippTwins
84Aaron NolaPhillies
85Tanner BibeeGuardians
86Bubba ChandlerPirates
87Noah SchultzWhite Sox
88Christian ScottMets
89Edward CabreraCubs
90Zebby MatthewsTwins
91Brandon SproatBrewers
92AJ Smith-ShawverBraves
93Owen MurphyBraves

All of these pitchers have enough upside or potential for success that you can talk yourself into rostering them, but none of them have had consistent success this season, and all of them have the potential to blow up your ratios and crush your roto standings. I want to like Aaron Nola more because the swing-and-miss numbers have been so good, but he has also been getting hit so hard. Connor Prielipp has a blister issue, I was so wrong on Edward Cabrera, and both Christian Scott and Noah Schultz are not consistently going five innings right now. Maybe Bubba Chandler puts it together next season, but he is simply not putting hitters away, and I'm done expecting that to change this year.

Deep League Safety

94Reynaldo LopezBraves
95Noah CameronRoyals
96Andre PallanteCardinals
97Seth LugoRoyals
98Anthony KayWhite Sox
99Luis CastolloMariners
100Slade CecconiGuardians

These guys round out the top 100 with some relative safety and enough ability to be 15-team viable or streamers in the right matchup.

Injured Top 100 Starters

Garrett CrochetRed Sox
Max FriedYankees
Tyler GlasnowDodgers
Blake SnellDodgers
Justin SteeleCubs
Kyle HarrisonBrewers
Carlos RodonYankees
Connelly EarlyRed Sox
Kris BubicRoyals
Clay HolmesMets
Corbin BurnesDiamondbacks
Spencer SchwellenbachBraves

I couldn't rank any of these guys because they are all hurt with unclear timelines for return. However, they would all be top 100 pitchers if they were healthy, so maybe they are guys you should stash on the IL. I just can't tell you when they'll pitch for you.

Astros Legends Series 31: Casey Candaele

SAN FRANCISCO - APRIL 1: Casey Candaele #1 of the Houston Astros makes a play during a game against the San Francisco Giants at 3Com Park on April 1, 1991 in San Francisco,California. (Photo by: Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Casey Candaele became a member of the Houston Astros on July 23rd, 1988.  In a three-year period from 1990-1992, he played in 416 contests.   He joins us exclusively at The Crawfish Boxes for our 31st series entry of the Legends Series.    

Q:  The trade in 1988 that brought you to Houston.    What do you remember about that time?

A:  I was traded for Mark Bailey who they sent to Montreal.   I had a pretty good rookie season but at the time they had guys like Otis Nixon and Rex Hudler that were playing well, so it made sense at the time to trade me.

Q:  You played a bunch in 1991.   Bagwell was Rookie of the Year.   What did you see from Bagwell in his first season?

A:  That season I got to play almost every day at second base.   Bagwell’s discipline at the plate and his ability to get the barrel of the bat to the ball was just unprecedented.    You just could see he was going to make an impact.   He was the best 3-0 hitter I ever saw.   He never missed a 3-0 pitch.   He hit it really hard and really far most of the time.    He knew where he wanted his pitches, and he swung at pitches that he knew he could handle.   That was a unique talent.

Q:  Biggio brought it every day.  What stood out to you the most about him?

A:  What impressed me so much was that Craig always seemed to put the ball in play, even if he had two strikes on him.   He had the speed to beat balls out and he had power.   Complete player.   

Q:  Milo Hamilton gave you the nickname “Mighty Mite.”   Did you like that moniker?   

A:  (laughs)    That was great!    I had a little bit of pop but not home run pop for a little guy.    It was kind of cool.    It might have started when I hit a ball to the warning track or something which back then at the Astrodome was pretty far for me.   

Q:  Speaking of smaller guys, do you just sit back and marvel at the career that Jose Altuve has put together at only 5’6”? 

A:  He’s amazing.   The torque and the power he can generate is unreal.    He’s been such a good hitter for so many years, what an unbelievable talent.   I’m not going to say I look up to him, because I’m taller than he is (laughs) but I do respect him because he’s made his mark on the game.   

Q:  Did you like playing for Art Howe?

A:  Art was great.    He gave me an opportunity to play.    He really trusted me.   I did a lot of double switching back then, so Art used me often.   Art was probably one of the only managers that could’ve dealt with me and my personality and some of the things that I did or said back then.   I got called into his office quite a few times to talk to Art, but he was always understanding of my humor and if I went over the line, he’d call me in and talk to me about it in private.    I respected that about him.    I would fall in line and make any adjustment that was necessary afterwards.