Category: MLB

Well, the slump is on. While it’s not surprising for any team to slump for a few games, and even less surprising for an injury-laden squad to do so, it’s still been quite a turnaround for a team that held baseball’s best record for quite a while. After going 1-6 in their last seven games, with three consecutive series losses (two shortened by rain), the Braves are now a full game behind the Dodgers in the best record race. They’re a half-game ahead of the Brewers, who come to town for a holiday weekend series.

If you were hoping that maybe the Braves could change their fortunes with a new series, well… uh… maybe shunt those hopes onto tomorrow. Because, tonight, the pitching matchup involves Martin Perez and Jacob Misiorowski.

The Miz, as he is affectionately called these days, has basically been eating MLB batters for dinner. He already had an impressive debut in 2025, putting up 1.2 fWAR and a 104/88/89 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) in 15 appearances (14 starts), but 2026 has been worlds apart. Through 14 starts, Misiorowski has completed 87 innings with a 33/40/49 line. We used to talk about Chris Sale and Spencer Strider video game numbers, and, honestly, these are even better than those numbers. The Miz has 3.9 fWAR and it’s not even July yet; he leads MLB in pitching fWAR, FIP-, and xFIP-, and is second by a smidge in ERA- to boot. While his April was very good, things have taken a turn for the sublime when the calendar turned to May. In his last eight starts, Misiorowski has an 80/9 K/BB ratio, and a 4/18/38 line. Those don’t even seem like real numbers.

He’s coming off one of the greatest MLB pitching performances ever, a near-perfect game where he faced the minimum (but had a hit off him) and threw just 95 pitches while striking out 15 Phillies. Those Phillies weren’t mired in terrible offensive doldrums and the Miz diced ‘em up. What will happen to the Braves? Well, watch and witness, I guess.

To do battle against Misiorowski, the Braves will deploy Martin Perez. At one point, this was tabbed as a Chris Sale-Miz matchup, but the Braves are definitely not yet (or ever?) in the “give Chris Sale as many starts as humanly possible” operating mode, so… Perez it is. To his credit, Perez has taken over the “unexpectedly pretty good starter” position from Bryce Elder, and his season line now sits at 0.8 fWAR and a 70/93/94 line in 62 total innings, which is certainly way better than anyone was expecting out of him. Due to the phenomenon I still think of as Perez pachinko, it’s pretty hard to know exactly what you’re going to get out of him other than a relatively short outing, but maybe he can help keep the score fairly close if nothing else.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Friday, June 19, 7:15 p.m. EDT

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

TV: BravesVision

Streaming: MLB.tv

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

Lehigh Valley IronPigs 5, Worcester Red Sox 4 (BOX)

After falling behind 3-0 early, the Woo Sox battled back to tie the game on three solo home runs. Max Ferguson hit his first of the year, Tyler McDonough his second, and Tsung-Che Cheng his seventh. Cheng had a big day, going 3-for-5. Mikey Romero and Allan Castro also contributed two hits apiece, part of a 13-hit effort from the Woo Sox. Kristian Campbell (.217 BA) was 1-for-4.

Starter Raymond Burgos went five innings, allowing three earned runs and striking out four. Devin Sweet fell to 1-4 in relief, allowing two runs in the sixth inning to the IronPigs (PHI) for the loss. 

Worcester will play at 6:45 this evening and has not yet announced a starter. 

Portland Sea Dogs 7, Somerset Patriots 6 (BOX)

The Sea Dogs matched the Woo Sox effort with 13 hits of their own against Somerset (NYY) on Thursday, and were able to pull out a one-run affair. Portland got two-hit efforts from Marvin Alcantara, Will Turner, Brooks Brannon, and Stanley Tucker. A home run from Will Turner capped a four-run second inning, as well. 

Hayden Mullins struggled in the start for the Sea Dogs, allowing nine baserunners and three runs in three innings. Michael Sansone got the win, going 5 ⅔ innings, and allowing three runs, before giving way to Cade “don’t call me George” Feeney for the save. Yes, Mister Matthews. 

John Holobetz (3-3, 4.70) will toe the rubber at 6:00 tonight. 

Jersey Shore BlueClaws 8, Greenville Drive 5 (BOX)

A 1-1 game entering the fifth, things got ugly fast against the BlueClaws (PHI), when they exploded for a seven run inning. Tyler Davis allowed six of those runs, getting the loss. The Drive fought back a bit in the eighth inning with four runs, including a Luke Heyman home run, part of a two-hit day. Yophery Rodriguez also homered, his 11th, in the loss. 

The Drive will send Kyson Witherspoon (2-3, 5.28) to the hill at 7:05. 

Salem RidgeYaks 10, Fredericksburg Nationals 5 (BOX)

The RidgeYaks had just six hits on the day, but still managed to get ten runs, thanks to eight walks from Fredericksburg (WAS) and two errors. 

Salem got three runs apiece in the second, seventh, and ninth innings. Right fielder Andrews Opata homered in the ninth inning to break the game open. Avinson Pinto and Andruw Musett each had two RBI games. 

Control was not the story of the day in this one, as Salem pitching walked twelve, to go along with the eight from the Nationals. Six of those walks came from reliever Joey Gartrell. Cole Tolbert didn’t allow an earned run in three innings as the starter, and Harry Blum got the win with 2 ⅔ hitless innings. 

Brady Tygart (0-0, 5.79) takes the mound at 6:35 tonight for the ‘Yaks. 

You probably don’t remember the hiccup in time when infielder Otto Lopez was a San Francisco Giant, but it did happen. For 5 weeks or so, the team had a 25-year old second baseman who had hit .300/.365/.413 in 2,255 minor league plate appearances. Then, they designated him for assignment and he was claimed by the Marlins. Since then, he’s hit .275/.322/.395 across 2+ seasons (1,343 plate appearances) and with some well above average defense has amassed 7.8 fWAR. This year, he’s playing at an All-Star level: .336/.368/.473 (132 wRC+), 2.9 fWAR. He’s been exactly as valuable as Luis Arraez, but was this another miss by the previous front office?

You know, it’s pretty interesting to chart how we got to the “Aw, geez, I’m just trying to figure it out; baseball is hard” dynamic of the current front office. A general disgust and distrust of computer numbers and “phantom” value, certainly some anti-Dodger sentiment mixed in, and the inability to find a proper post-Bochy figurehead in the dugout; but mainly, the missteps and misfires piled up. I think six seasons was good and plenty for that experiment, but I’m starting to wonder if Buster Posey & Zack Minasian are simply speedrunning the Zaidi era.

Both Posey & Zaidi were both wiz kids in their respective areas of the industry. Both hired similarly inexperienced GMs to work under them. Both hired new managers after their first season on the job — those managerial choices were extremely controversial (for wholly different reasons, of course). Those managers were both well-groomed and appearance-focused. They both were prone to word salad. They both ticked off beat writers and fans alike for basically the same reason. Their managerial choices were somewhat inscrutable, though Gabe Kapler’s strategizing worked out more often than Vitello’s has. But, Buster has undermanaged and understrategized with the roster while Zaidi overmanaged and overstrategized. Both have had managers receive their vote of confidence only to see that manager lose control of the clubhouse (or, in Vitello’s case, never really seem to have had it at all). The key difference might be the upcoming minor league talent, which appears to be thriving a lot more under the new regime.

I mention all this because the Miami Marlins, led by Peter Bendix as the President of Baseball Operations, and now Gabe Kapler as their GM, seem to be what it would’ve looked like if the Zaidi era had gone right. A steady stream of important trades and savvy waiver & rule 5 pickups coalescing into a scrappy team that doesn’t cost much but stays competitive. Part of that is “analytics,” sure, but I’m not blind to the Marlins having a lot of useful inventory to sell over the years and get back some quality, well-scouted (both by human scouts and data analysts) major league talent. Their primary starting lineup does not scream home grown:

C —1st round pick (2021)
1B — Acquired in trade with Orioles for Trevor Rogers (2024)
2B — Acquired in trade with Rays for a pair of minor leaguers (2022)
3B — International free agent signing (2019)
SS — Waiver claim (2024)
LF — Acquired in trade with Orioles for Trevor Rogers (2024)
CF — Acquired in trade with Padres for Luis Arraez (2024)
RF — Acquired in trade with Cubs for Edward Cabrera (2026)
DH — Rule 5 pick (2024)

For this, the Marlins have a middle of the pack lineup (97 wRC+). I didn’t look at the pitching side, but that’s the 10th best in MLB heading into this series. If you’re the Marlins, you need to be able to stay on top of the roster by constantly reinventing it, but if you’re the Giants, all you really have to do — and, it’s not easy, as they’ve shown — is build a roster that is then supplemented by free agents rather than need to rely on them. A quick comparison.

C — Rule 5 pick (2025)
1B — Acquired in trade with the Red Sox for a bunch of dudes (2025)
2B — Free agent (2026)
3B — Free agent (2024)
SS — Free agent (2024)
LF — 2nd round pick (2020)
CF — Gilbert: trade, Bader: free agent
RF — Free agent (2023)
DH — 1st round pick (2023)

Of course, the real comparison point is the results. Since Buster Posey took over, the Giants are 112-124. The Marlins over this same span are just 116-121. Well, okay, that’s not right. The other comparison point is the cost. The Giants have committed $376.2 million since the start of last season while the Marlins have only committed $144.7 million. There’s also a bit more of a lottery ticket/upside play going on with the roster — and if any of the younger players really blossom, they become trade bait that can help refresh the system and the cycle can start anew.

Has the Marlins’ approach been better? Hard to say. But the Giants have been penny wise and pound foolish. Ditching the thought of Kevin Gausman only to spend a lot more money finding a #2 starter. Their inability to draft, develop, or acquire younger players has necessitated resorting to free agency again and again.

But this ship has sailed. The Giants have turned away from the analytical approach and the notion of building a roster from the bottom up — unless, of course, Randy Winn has really transformed the Giants’ farm system into a real winner, because that would really be nice, and there wouldn’t have to be much too much consternation when a player leaves the Giants and is productive elsewhere.

Who: San Francisco Giants (31-43) at Miami Marlins (37-38)
Where: loanDepot park | Miami, Florida
When: Friday at 4:10pm PT, Saturday at 1:10pm PT, Sunday at 10:40am PT
National broadcasts: None

Projected starters
Friday: Landen Roupp (RHP 5-7, 4.24 ERA) vs. Lake Bachar (RHP 0-0, 2.97 ERA)
Saturday: Trevor McDonald (RHP 2-4, 4.64 ERA) vs. Max Meyer (RHP 7-0, 2.75 ERA)
Sunday: Logan Webb (RHP 4-4, 3.46 ERA) vs. Ryan Gusto (RHP 0-2, 7.24 ERA)

Players to watch

Marlins

Liam Hicks: In June, he’s been just slightly better than Otto Lopez, posting a 159 wRC+ to Lopez’s 152. He’s done so by hitting for a bit more power (.189 ISO) and a higher on base (.422) thanks to impressive walk and strikeout rates (13.8% and 10.8%, respectively). On the season, he’s hitting .280/.362/.477 with 13 home runs and 52 RBI, a 10.2% walk rate and 9.5% strikeout rate. The Marlins got him in the Rule 5 draft from Detroit. The 27-year old left-handed first baseman/catcher has been another impressive find by the Marlins’ front office.

Kyle Stowers: He was the main piece of the Trevor Rogers deal with the Orioles back in 2024 and quickly became their middle of the lineup hitter, posting an impressive .912 OPS last season in 457 PA. He started this year on the IL and got off to a fast start (6-for-his-first-15), but it was a rough April and May after those first four games (.198/.276/.331 in 134 PA). However, in June, he’s picked it back up, with a line of .241/.323/.537 in 63 PA. He’s hit 4 homers and driven in 16 over this span, too. He has an .841 career OPS against the Giants, too (44 PA).

Lake Bachar: Don’t be fooled by the name. He might sound like a sixth-billed sitcom star from the 80s, but he has swing-and-miss stuff throughout his arsenal. A ~95 mph four-seamer hitters have just a .190 BA against; a 2,669 rpm slider with a 45.5% Whiff rate, a similarly wipeout sweeper, a curveball that has a 37.5% whiff rate, a splitter, and a sinker. He’s basically a reliever, but because the Marlins have two starters on the IL (Janson Junk and Eury Perez), they’ve resorted to opener/bullpen game situations, and you can see how this arsenal makes him a perfect option. This month, Bachar has appeared in 5 games, starting 3 of them, and in 10.2 innings combined he’s struck out 13, walked 3, allowed just 3 hits and a run (0.84 ERA / 1.78 FIP).

Giants

Jung Hoo Lee: .364/.391/.364 in 6 games (23 PA) at loanDepot park and in the last calendar month (so, since May 17th; 80 PA) he’s hitting .468/.475/.597 with a homer, a triple, 5 doubles, 3 stolen bases, just 1 walk (oof), but only 3 strikeouts.

Luis Arraez: .349/.385/.454 in 105 games (446 PA) at loanDepot park is a good sign, I think. Also, in the last calendar month (so, since May 17th; 129 PA), he’s hitting .339/.362/.513 with a pair of homers, 4 triples, and 6 doubles. He spent about 7 months in a Marlins uniform but was an All-Star for them in 2023 (.354/.393/.469 over the whole season). Chances are he’ll be the Giants’ sole representative this season… unless he’s traded before the All-Star Game.

Logan Webb: He certainly looks like he’s returned to form after that IL stint. He’s made just 2 starts in his career at loanDepot park (yes, the ‘p’ in park is lower case), but they came in 2022 & 2023; so, is his 6.35 ERA in 11.1 innings a portent or a fluke? The Giants are hoping for the latter, of course, and Miami’s middle of the pack strikeout rate and high groundball rate for a lineup (43.8% — 5th in MLB) certainly suggests that a Logan Webb who’s on point will be setup to have another great game.

Prediction time

This section sure has gone off the rails, hasn’t it? I blame myself, of course, but it would be nice if I could put a poll down here in place of any rambling narrative I think up at the last minute, don’t you think? Anyway, the Giants took 2 out of 3 from the Marlins back in April, which seems impossible given how bad the team has been this season, and the Giants have also taken the series in Miami the last two seasons, which also seems impossible, given how tough the Marlins have been on the Giants, historically.

Yhe Marlins are running out two relievers to stanch the bleeding in their rotation, but they’re also 23-16 at home this season with a +30 run differential. Hmm. But the Giants also have their two best starters going in the series, and even if one of them is unsalvageable bigot, I’ll still say the Giants manage to win the series.

The Yankees finally conquered one of their personal demons last weekend, winning a series at the Rogers Centre for the first time since September 2023. Principal to their success was the performance of the pitching staff, holding their hosts to just four runs across the final two games. Cam Schlittler was the catalyst for that stretch of shutdown pitching with his seven innings of one-run ball on Saturday to nullify another dominant start against the Yankees from his opponent, Kevin Gausman.

We join Schlittler with two outs in the bottom of the fourth. The score is tied, 1-1, following a Kazuma Okamoto solo shot in the third that Jasson Domínguez canceled out with a clout of his own to lead off the following half-inning — the only hit that Gausman would give up in his seven innings of work. With Domínguez having made it a new ballgame in the top-half and having seen how untouchable Gausman was on this given day, the pressure is on Schlittler to keep putting up zeroes.

However, he’s gotten himself into some trouble with runners on second and third with one out, Brandon Valenzuela drawing a one-out walk and advancing to third on a Yohendrick Piñango double. Schlittler then got Charles McAdoo to line out to pull within an out of escaping the jam. Schlittler could really use a strikeout, but stepping to the plate is a pesky hitter who has always been difficult to punch out in Andrés Giménez.

Schlittler’s typical M.O. against lefties is to attack early with the cutter, hoping to get to two strikes, where he can then target up and away with the four-seamer or up and in with cutters hunting the chase, whiff, and strikeout. True to form, Schlittler starts Giménez with a first pitch cutter up and in at 96 mph.

Giménez must be hunting something either low in the zone or out over the plate, because he never looks interested in offering at this cutter up and in that catches a lot of the strike zone. It’s still a devilish pitch at 96 and command to that location, and any contact would likely saw Giménez’s bat off at the handle.

Now that Schlittler has show Giménez an in-zone fastball with late movement down and in, he sequences the four-seamer trying to throw it out of the same tunnel as the previous pitch. If he can achieve that, it should look like a cutter that is going to break into the hitting are, only to then hold its vertical plane above the strike zone. The idea is to fool Giménez into chasing and whiffing under a pitch that looks the same as the previous one but does not break the way the hitter is expecting.

Of course, you actually have to execute to your spot for this strategy to work. Instead, Schlittler sails this four-seamer way above the zone. It’s a classic overthrow and a completely non-competitive pitch that achieves nothing in this encounter with respect to setting up future pitches.

Perhaps Schlittler didn’t like the way that four-seamer felt coming out of the hand, because he goes right back to the cutter with the count 1-1. Giménez was passive against the first one up and in so maybe Schlittler can extract a similar result with similar execution.

Schlittler commands this cutter to almost the same spot he hit with the first pitch of the AB except just a few inches higher. Interestingly, Giménez does swing this time at a pitch that is much harder to hit than the one he took for strike one. He has no chance of putting this pitch in play and only manages to foul it back with the handle of his bat.

With Giménez now showing a willingness to offer at the high fastball, and with the count to two strikes, all of the momentum is in Schlittler’s favor. The plan has become conveniently simplified: continue to pour in high heaters and let Giménez get himself out.

This is a perfectly located 1-2 four-seamer. It’s close enough to the zone to extract a chase but high enough to make solid contact almost impossible. Similarly, at 99 mph and in on Giménez’s hands rather than elevated but out over the plate, the hitter has zero time to pull his hands in and somewhat miraculously gets off an emergency hack to fight the pitch off foul and stay alive.

Two fastballs elevated above the zone and two chases — Schlittler simply needs to keep climbing the ladder just one rung higher than the previous pitch and eventually Giménez will be unable to raise his swing high enough to make contact.

Ask and you shall receive. Schlittler goes incrementally higher with this 96-mph cutter, and at last Giménez can’t adjust. Schlittler gets the swinging strikeout to strand the pair of baserunners in scoring position and hand it over to his offense with the score still knotted at one apiece.

Here’s the full sequence:

This sequence showcased several of Schlittler’s many talents. He has a unique ability to get chases and whiffs in bunches when he throws the four-seamer or cutter above the zone, which in addition to precise command suggests to me that his pitches just don’t move how hitters are expecting them to. We also noted that Schlittler recognized how Gausman was shutting down his teammates, necessitating that the likely All-Star be extra precise with his locations whereas he might have been able to attack the zone more freely had he been pitching with the lead.

Schlittler by his own admission was not at his sharpest in this game as evidenced by a season-high four walks. Still, it is easy to lose sight of the fact that Schlittler held Toronto to just one run across seven strong innings, a feat that very few starters in today’s game are capable of producing. I sometimes find myself falling into the trap of taking Schlittler’s ability for granted that he can go this deep in the game on a day when he doesn’t have his best stuff and/or command.

Even with the returns of Cal Raleigh and J.P. Crawford, the Mariners continue to be beset by injuries. Julio Rodriguez was held out of Thursday’s game with a minor hamstring injury and Luke Raley missed the entire series against the Orioles thanks to the flu. Somehow, the only part of the team that hasn’t been affected by injury is the starting rotation. We’ll see the return of the piggybacking strategy this weekend to alleviate the issues the six-man rotation caused over the last few weeks.

The Red Sox entered this season looking like one of the stronger teams in the AL East. They had navigated an awkward transition away from their older core, graduated a bunch of top prospects in 2025, and brought in a bunch of talented players during the offseason. Things quickly went off the rails. Manager Alex Cora was fired at the end of April after the team had limped to a 10-17 start to the season. Injuries to Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony further depleted the talent on the roster and the lineup has been one of the most punchless in baseball. Things have gone so bad in Boston, the team is already considering selling at the trade deadline despite the gross mediocrity plaguing the entire American League.

It turns out, it’s really difficult to replace superstars like Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers. Those players were shipped out of Boston in the name of payroll flexibility, but the team has done an extremely poor job of replacing that talent on their roster. The result is an offense that has scored the fewest runs in the AL with a 90 wRC+. Sure, Roman Anthony was supposed to be a core piece in the lineup, and he has missed more than a month due to a sprained finger, but he had only produced a 91 wRC+ before getting injured. The lone bright spot has been the excellence of Willson Contreras. Acquired from the Cardinals to fill the gaping hole at first base, he’s been one of the best at the position in baseball this year, blasting 16 home runs and running a career high 157 wRC+. 

The real problem for the Red Sox is guys like Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Caleb Durbin all taking a hefty step backwards this season. Combined with the lack of development from former top prospect Marcelo Mayer and you can see why the team has struggled to consistently score runs this year.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

After a stint in Philadelphia where he was constantly overshadowed by the bigger names in the Phillies’ rotation, Ranger Suarez signed a huge five-year, $130 million deal with the Red Sox this offseason. He wasn’t a big name prospect, doesn’t have overwhelming stuff, but he owns a 3.25 ERA and 15.2 fWAR since joining the starting rotation full time in 2021. Excellent command, a bit of deception, and a deep repertoire all combine to help him run excellent strikeout-to-walk ratios while also limiting the amount of hard contact he allows. His sinker is one of the best in baseball and his curveball provides plenty of whiffs when he really needs to get a strikeout.

Connelly Early made his big league debut last fall, showcasing strong strikeout stuff with good command. Ranked fourth overall on this year’s Red Sox prospect list, his first full season in the majors has been a little shaky this year. He moved through the minor leagues extremely quickly after being drafted in the fifth round in 2023, so it’s possible his struggles this year are simply normal speed bumps in his development trajectory. He’s got a deep six-pitch repertoire and likes to mix and match his pitch mix to avoid becoming too predictable. He’s got a pair of strong fastballs, an excellent changeup, and a trio of breaking balls to attack batters with.

Payton Tolle raced through the Red Sox farm system last year. After being drafted in 2024, he made his pro debut the following spring and was eventually pitching in the big leagues by the end of the season. His fastball is one of the best in all of baseball; he throws hard from the left side, the pitch has tremendous carry at the top of the zone, and his 6’ 6” frame provides a ton of extension down the mound. His secondary pitches are still a work in progress but his plus plus fastball has enough quality that he can get by without a breaking ball or offspeed pitch. If he ever develops a consistent secondary weapon or two, watch out.

The Big Picture:

The Athletics wound up losing their series against the Pirates earlier this week but started off a four-game set against the Angels with a win last night. The Rangers were swept by the Twins, slipping down the Wild Card standings into a tie with Minnesota; Texas hosts the Padres this weekend. The Astros just took two of three from the Tigers and will get an opportunity to affect the AL Central standings even further with a series against the Guardians.

The Phillies 3-9 record against the current three NL division leaders — Braves, Dodgers and Brewers — tells a pretty clear story.

Those three clubs are all significantly better than Philadelphia.

It was clear to see on the field in the two series against Atlanta, the series in Los Angeles and in the Phils’ trip to Milwaukee.

Here is how the Phils have fared against clubs currently holding down a playoff spot in the National League:

• Los Angeles Dodgers (1-2)
• Atlanta Braves (1-5)
• Milwaukee Brewers (1-2)
• San Diego Padres (6-0)
• Washington Nationals (2-1)

That’s a collective 11-10 record, although more than half of those victories came against one team, the Padres.

If you factor in the American League playoff teams they’ve played, it looks like this:

• Chicago White Sox (2-1)
• Cleveland Guardians (1-2)
• Athletics (2-1)

That would improve their record against current playoff teams to 16-14, 10-14 against teams not called the San Diego Padres.

Where the Phillies are doing real damage is against everyone else, which, makes a lot of sense.

• Arizona Diamondbacks (1-2)
• Boston Red Sox (2-1)
• Cincinnati Reds (1-2)
• Colorado Rockies (4-2)
• Miami Marlins (5-1)
• Pittsburgh Pirates (3-0)
• San Francisco Giants (4-2)
• Texas Rangers (1-2)
• Toronto Blue Jays (2-1)

They’ve gone 23-13 against teams that currently do not hold a playoff spot. The Marlins came to town this week and the Phils bludgeoned them by a combined score of 15-2 in the first two games until Miami beat up on a now-demoted rookie starting pitcher, Andrew Painter.

Here’s the good news. The schedule look mighty nice heading into next month’s All Star break.

• 3 vs. NY Mets (33-41)
• 4 @ Washington Nationals (39-36)
• 3 @ NY Mets
• 4 vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (37-37)
• 3 @ Kansas City Royals (30-45)
• 3 @ Cincinnati Reds (35-38)
• 3 @ Detroit Tigers (30-44)

Over their next 23 games, they play four games against teams with a winning record, next week in DC against the Nats. Their opponents have a combined record of 204-241 and a winning percentage of .458. The Phillies have a better record than all of them.

It’s a recipe for the success they’ve experienced since Don Mattingly took over as skipper to continue into the All Star Break.

The Cincinnati Reds, ranked fifth in the NL Central with a 35-38 record, face the New York Yankees, who are first in the AL East with a 45-28 record. The New York Yankees are favored with a -285 moneyline compared to the Cincinnati Reds' +225. Starting pitchers are Rhett Lowder for Cincinnati, with a 4.60 ERA, and Cam Schlittler for New York, with a 1.82 ERA.

How to watch Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees

• Date: Friday, June 19

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET / 4:05 p.m. PT

• Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY

• TV Channels: YES, Reds.TV

• Live Stream:ESPN+, MLB.TV | Follow on Yahoo Sports

Team records

• Cincinnati Reds: 35-38 (fifth in NL Central)

• New York Yankees: 45-28 (first in AL East)

Odds

• Spread: New York Yankees -1.5

• Moneyline: New York Yankees -285 / Cincinnati Reds +225

• Over/Under: 8.5

Starting pitchers

Cincinnati Reds: Rhett Lowder (3-3, ERA: 4.60, K: 37, WHIP: 1.43)

New York Yankees: Cam Schlittler (7-3, ERA: 1.82, K: 96, WHIP: 0.91)

Series: Game 1 of 3 (series tied)

Weather: 80°F at first pitch

Good Morning.

And Happy Birthday Tyler Heineman, who turns 35 today. He was very likable when he was here. That’s an important skill for a backup catcher, but he seemed like a great guy. And he had an excellent season last year. I hope things go will with the Angels.

We have a day game. I really don’t like weekday day games, but Wrigley Field is a special place. I’ve been to Chicago to watch games against the White Sox, but the Cubs weren’t in town and they weren’t doing tours of Wrigley. One day I might get there, not for the next three years, but one day.

The Score has a list of twenty players who are deadline trade candidates. No Jays on the list, but Bo Bichette is on the list. I guess is the is the rumour that he’ll opt out of his contract after this year. He could be a good pickup for some time. But then, he might not opt out and you’d be paying Bo $42 million in each of the next two years. I’m trying to imagine a world where someone was going to pay me $82 million over the next two years and I’d say nah, let’s roll the dice and see if I can get more. I guess I don’t have Bo’s range at short, at least not until my foot heals.

I can’t see the Jays being sellers while they are still on the edge of a Wild Card spot. I don’t know that they would be buyers either.

I can’t imagine any way that Shane Bieber won’t be making his next appearance with the Jays, even if we are 7-1 in bullpen day game. Will he be good is a separate question, but he threw 80 pitches for Buffalo Wednesday. I don’t think we have anyone else who is likely to throw 80 pitches the next time that spot comes around (well, maybe SWR, but we seem to like him as a long reliever.

Today’s lineups:

Today’s roster move: Here

Friday notes…

• FIVE AND TWO: The Cubs are 5-2 in their last seven games. This is their first 5-2 span of the season that did not include any games during their two 10-game winning streaks. They were 5-2 through the first four wins of the first streak, beginning with the sixth win of that streak, and beginning with the sixth win of the second streak. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• STARTING OFF RIGHT: The Cubs have won the first game of their last two series, after having lost the opener of the previous seven. They won the last two series after having lost the previous seven. They are 7-3 in winning series after winning first games; 3-10-1 after losing first games. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• AFTER AN OFF DAY: The Cubs are 4-5 in games after a day off but have lost their last three, two at home. They are 3-3 in all games at home following a day of rest. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
• CAMPAIGNING FOR PLAYER OF THE MONTH: Pete Crow-Armstrong, 16 games in June: .406/.435/.906 (26-for-64) with four doubles, two triples, eight home runs, 11 RBI, 12 runs scored and four stolen bases.

Cubs lineup:

Blue Jays lineup:

Ben Brown, RHP vs. Kevin Gausman, RHP

I wouldn’t say Ben Brown has been the savior of the Cubs starting rotation but… yeah, he pretty much has been. Since he joined the rotation May 8, he has a 1.49 ERA, 0.936 WHIP, 2.13 FIP and still no home runs allowed this season after he gave up one to the first batter he faced in 2026 (Jacob Young of the Nationals), now 243 batters. In seven starts he’s allowed only one hit in three of them.

Good stuff, Ben. He threw four innings of one-run relief against the Jays last year, Aug. 12, 2025 in Toronto, his only career outing against them.

Kevin Gausman has been an underrated, consistent starter in MLB for over a decade. This year at age 35, he’s having another good year, and in his last start, June 13 vs. the Yankees, he allowed one hit over seven innings.

Gausman threw seven innings against the Cubs Aug. 13, 2025 in Toronto and allowed two runs — both on solo homers, one by Michael Busch, the other by Matt Shaw.

This will not be an easy afternoon for Cubs hitters.

Here is the weather forecast for the area around Wrigley Field.

Today’s game is on Marquee Sports Network. It’s also streaming on Peacock (outside the Cubs and Blue Jays market territories).

Here is the complete MLB.com live streaming page for today.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Blue Jays site Bluebird Banter. If you do go there to interact with Jays fans, please be respectful, abide by their individual site rules and serve as a good representation of Cub fans in general and BCB in particular.

The 2026 game discussion procedure has been changed, so please take note.

You’ll find the game preview, like this one, posted separately on the front page two hours before game time (90 minutes for some early day games following night games).

At the same time, a StoryStream containing the preview will also post on the front page, titled “Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of week/date) game threads.” It will contain every post related to that particular game.

The Live! (formerly “First Pitch”) thread will still post at five minutes to game time. It will also post to the front page. That will be the only live game discussion thread. After the game, the recap and Heroes and Goats will also live on the front page as separate posts.

You will also be able to find the preview, Live! thread, recap and Heroes and Goats in this section link. The StoryStream for each game can also be found in that section.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year, we ask questions of the most plugged-in Kansas City Royals fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

Earlier this week, we asked which kinds of players the Royals should target during the upcoming trade deadline.

Well, I’ll say this about the poll results. Only 1% of Royals fans were willing to wait/pessimistic enough to believe that the Royals should try to target players who may not be ready to contribute until the 2030s. And, honestly, I think they’re correct in that. This is still a team that not only has Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia but also Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone, who seem to have started coming into their own in the month of June after each slumped a bit through May.

That said, they were pretty evenly split on whether the Royals could compete next year or might need to wait until 2028/2029 when the top prospects in the low minors should be really establishing themselves as the new core of the team. 2027 got 25% of the vote, while 2028-2029 got 29%. That, of course, means the plurality voted that the Royals should just target the best talent available, regardless of when that talent might be able to contribute.

Given that we accept that the answer doesn’t include guys who would try to seriously contribute to the 2026 roster, I think we can accept that this represents a block of people who don’t know whether the team can compete next year, but think they should be able to compete sometime within the next three. If that’s the understanding, then yeah, it makes sense to not lock out any options in those three years by refusing someone who is ultra-talented but only in AA because it doesn’t fit the window, or vice versa with a guy knocking on the door of the big leagues now.

Of course, as guys continue to get hurt, there are a lot of questions about who the Royals might even be able to trade. Let’s all cross our fingers that people can get healthy in time to bring us back some fun prospects to dream about in August and September.

These survey results are sponsored by FanDuel.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks are healthy home favorites against the Minnesota Twins on Friday night.

My Twins vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks see value in backing the snakes to show their bite in a high-scoring win.

Who will win Twins vs Diamondbacks today: Diamondbacks moneyline (-170)

Connor Prielipp ranks in the 25th percentile in Pitcher Run Value and struggles against right-handed hitters.

That is far from ideal going up against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who excel against lefties and project to have seven or eight batters hit from the right-side on Friday night.

The Diamondbacks rank fourth in OPS vs. left-handed pitching this season. Isolating matchups against Top-15 opponents in that category, Prielipp owns an 8.44 ERA and has allowed at least four earned runs in all four starts.

Michael Soroka should get all the run support he needs in this one.

Back Arizona to -190.

COVERS INTEL:The Diamondbacks rank second in the majors with a .285 batting average against left-handed pitchers at home.

Twins vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-115)

This total is half a run too low for me.

The Diamondbacks possess a highly productive offense against left-handed pitching, especially at home. They rank fifth in wOBA and third in ISO vs. lefties in Arizona.

When they inevitably chase Prielipp from the game, they will face an underwhelming bullpen that sits 28th in xFIP this season.

The Minnesota Twins should produce as well. Soroka ranks in the 48th percentile in xBA so he’s not exactly untouchable.

Minnesota also enters with a red-hot offense, slotting third in OPS vs. righties in June.

Play the Over to -125.

Twins vs Diamondbacks weather

Temperatures could clear 100 in Arizona today. The heat creates a better envrionment for hitters and will help the ball carry.

Twins vs Diamondbacks odds

• Moneyline: Minnesota +145 | Arizona -170
• Run line: Minnesota +1.5 (-140) | Arizona -1.5 (+120)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)

Twins vs Diamondbacks trend

Minnesota has hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games (+10.50 units, 44% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Diamondbacks.

How to watch Twins vs Diamondbacks and game info

Twins vs Diamondbacks latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across Major League Baseball. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Yankees fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

The New York Yankees’ offense has looked solid all year, and currently ranks second in MLB with a 115 wRC+. Cody Bellinger has been a big part of that success, and second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been able to overcome a rough start to his season and remains a key cog in the Bombers’ World Series dreams.

A few days ago, we asked you, the Yankees fan reading this piece, whether Bellinger and Chisholm have done enough to make the All-Star roster in the American League. The response was clear.

A whopping 98 percent of Yankees fans believe Bellinger should be in Philadelphia next month, playing the Midsummer Classic with the American League. And to be fair, the numbers don’t lie: he is definitely deserving of a spot on the team.

Only four outfielders in the Junior Circuit have a higher wRC+ than Bellinger’s 136: Byron Buxton (149), Aaron Judge (148), Randy Arozarena (139), and Mike Trout (139). Bellinger is also second in fWAR with 2.6, right behind Buxton’s 2.8. These stats tell you that Bellinger, who is slashing a cool .275/.369/.479 with 11 homers and eight stolen bases, is among the very best outfielders in the American League and can’t be left out of the party. The Yankees re-signed him to a five-year, $162.5 million deal primarily with the hope that he could help them win right away; he’s absolutely done that in the first half of 2026.

The first MLB All-Star voting update had Bellinger and Judge among the top five vote-getters in the AL outfield, so they would both be in position to at least advance to the more run-off-focused Phase 2 of the process. Regardless of whether or not he gets a starting spot, he’s likely in good shape to make his third career All-Star team—and first since his MVP-winning 2019—in some capacity. (It’d be a stunner if teammates Ben Rice and Cam Schlittler weren’t there with him, but their cases are clear-cut enough that we did not ask about them or Judge, who might also make it despite his injury).

Now, let’s examine Chisholm’s case.

Yankees fans aren’t so confident that Chisholm deserves to play in the Midsummer Classic. Roughly one-third of them think he should be an All-Star, and to be fair, it wouldn’t be right to proclaim a 102-wRC+ hitter an automatic entry.

Chisholm wasn’t himself in the first month of the year, with a 73 wRC+. Then, he turned things around in May with a 124 mark and has kept playing at a high level in June, with a 122 wRC+. He does have 10 homers and 20 stolen bases, though, and his defensive performance depends on which stat you prioritize: his -5 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) says he has been a disaster, yet his 5 Outs Above Average (OAA) think the world of him.

In other words, Chisholm has lacked consistency this year, and the majority of fans don’t think he is an All-Star at this juncture. That can still change, though, especially since the AL field as a whole at the keystone is, to be kind, underwhelming. Someone has to be the All-Star second baseman. It could still be Jazz.

In the MLB-wide survey, we asked you who will win the World Series. The results are not surprising:

A plurality of the public—roughly 39 percent—believe that the Los Angeles Dodgers will get the three-peat. As of Friday morning, they boast an MLB-best 48-27 record and a nine-game lead in the NL West. They still have plenty of offensive and pitching weapons, and they are run by the same people with the same successful philosophy. They have as good a chance as anyone in the league to win it all.

The Atlanta Braves checked in at second place in the survey, and the Yankees were third. They will need to shore up a shaky bullpen to reach those heights, though, not to mention getting Judge back healthy in time. The rebuilding White Sox actually being in the top five is definitely cool to see.

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Toronto Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is turning a corner, and he profiles extremely well against Chicago Cubs starter Ben Brown to keep the bat warm, making Over 1.5 total bases at a +135 price an attractive play. 

Read on for my Blue Jays vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks for this Friday, June 19 matchup. 

Blue Jays vs Cubs predictions

Blue Jays vs Cubs best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+135)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. profiles extremely well against Ben Brown, who gives up hard contact and throws a mix of curveballs and sinkers to right-handed batters at an 81% rate. 

Vladdy has crushed these pitch types all season, with a .392 AVG and a .468 SLG. 

He’s starting to heat up, too, with hits in five of his last six games, including his first home run in 32 days yesterday, which could be the confidence-builder he needs to get back to his All-Star self.

Guerrero’s hard-hit rate against the curveball and sinker, averaging 58% since June 1 — up from his 47% season average — points to the potential for more extra-base hits in the future.

A Vladdy breakout is coming, and a favorable matchup against Brown makes this bet playable even at +120. 

COVERS INTEL: Brown is a contact pitcher who owns an 85.4% zone-contact rating, matching Guerrero’s 85.5% zone-contact rate, making this a favourable matchup for the Jays slugger, who ranks in the 94th percentile in xBA.

Blue Jays vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)

Guerrero Jr. owns just an 4.8% strikeout rate against Brown's principle pitch mix, and has gone Under this number in eight of his 13 June games. 

Another Toronto Blue Jays batter who profiles well against the Chicago Cubs starter is Nathan Lukes, who owns a .340 AVG against Brown’s pitch mix, and has recorded 1+ hits in 19 of his last 22 games since returning from the IL. 

Blue Jays vs Cubs SGP

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 0.5 strikeouts
• Nathan Lukes Over 0.5 hits

Blue Jays vs Cubs home run pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+675)

Brown has surrendered just one home run through 62 innings of work this season, so a quarter-unit wager is in order on this bet. 

Brown has been hit hard, ranking in the 29th percentile with a 42.9% hard-hit rate in 2026.

Perhaps after a 32-day buffer between his last two home runs, Guerrero Jr. digs in and goes deep two games in a row. I’ll make a small wager on the breakout. 

Blue Jays vs Cubs odds

• Moneyline: Toronto -102 | Chicago -120
• Run line: Toronto +1.5 | Chicago -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7

Blue Jays vs Cubs trend

The Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in nine of their last 13 away games (+5.15 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Cubs.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Cubs and game info

Blue Jays vs Cubs latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Cubs weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Orioles fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

The Orioles remain tantalizingly close in the AL Wild Card race despite multiple games per week where they look like they should be headed for more like 100 losses. They have been good enough just often enough to stay in it, even though there are many days where it does not feel this way.

There are another 30 or so games to be played before the trade deadline. The Orioles roughly 20-13 to be above .500 by the time the deadline arrives. They will probably seem to still be in the race and make the case to be buyers (or at least not sellers) as long as they can manage at least 17-16 between now and then.

The big question is: Can they do that? I surveyed Orioles fans this week to see where people think this will all shake out. These were the results:

As I said when I posted this survey, I was fairly sure more people would say sellers than not, and really I was just curious about the percentage. That’s roughly two-thirds thinking the team is headed for selling, whatever that might look like. That’s a strong majority.

It’s not hard to understand why. We get reminded of why regularly and are in the middle of one of those stretches right now, with the team having lost four of five games while scoring a combined 11 runs in those games. They’ve wasted pretty good starts from Trevor Rogers, Brandon Young, and Shane Baz in this little stretch. The Orioles are going to have to find a higher gear that we haven’t seen them have for nearly two full years now. It’s a bummer. Hopefully they surprise us like roughly one-third of you think that they will.

This week’s survey is sponsored by FanDuel.

Your 2026 New York Mets: It Sucks

“It sucks. It felt like you let the team down. The team has been playing really well the last couple of weeks, too. Definitely a blow to me; it sucks.” -Tobias Myers [New York Post]

Wow, the Knicks, that was awesome. Now to take a big sip of orange juice and see what the Mets have been up to since the NBA playoffs started in mid-April…

“My first time out there on a big-league mound in a little while, I just couldn’t gather it all together in that big inning.” -Kodai Senga [New York Post]

“I think command was my main issue overall — just not locating well, getting behind hitters. It’s tough to face major league hitters when you are behind most of the time. It’s something we have already kind of looked at a little bit. We’re going to dig deeper and get to work.” -Tobias Myers [New York Post]

You know things are going great when we’re got some canned ‘we’re banged up and need guys to step up’ quotes…

“Guys will continue to get opportunities and guys will need to step up. We have got a lot of guys in there that are more than capable, and we need those guys to step up, especially right now when we’re banged up.” -Carlos Mendoza [New York Post]

…as well as ‘we needed a win’ in the middle of June quote…

“I don’t know about satisfying, but it felt good. We needed to come out here and win a game.” -Bo Bichette [MLB]

…and a healthy mix of, I don’t know, but quotes where you start with some silver lining and pivot with a hard ‘BUT’ in the middle of your statement ala the Stephen A Smith Tweet…

“I have had some ups and downs so far, but it feels great [regarding his personal season numbers]. I definitely would love to be in a different spot as a team, but I want to help as much as I can to bring them back up.” -Juan Soto [New York Post]

/Stephen A Smith voice/BUT!

“Throughout the year when we get the quality [starting pitching], those guys are going to give us a chance: the offense and the bullpen but we need to be better. We need more from them. We expect more from them and they know that.” -Carlos Mendoza [New York Post]

/Stephen A Smith voice/BUT!

“The first three batters of the game, not ideal what you want to see right away. A couple of walks and then the three-run homer … [Senga] found his sweeper and the slider, but they got him early on there.” -Carlos Mendoza [New York Post]

This quote doesn’t quite fit the ‘Stephen A Smith BUT’ model BUT; Mendoza is starting to really read to me as getting to the Jerry Manuel level of providing quotes that are fodder for a pre-written narrative for the beat reporters as like a nice treat so they’ll be nice to him and help his job security (not saying he shouldn’t do that).

Cool man, it’s really insightful to acknowledge Juan Soto is a ‘really good player’ but he’s not trying to do too much.

“This is a guy that is more than capable of carrying a team, but he’s not trying to do too much. He’s going to continue to take his walks, he’s going to hit the ball hard, he’s a really good player.” -Carlos Mendoza [New York Post]

Along those lines, totally could be true, but I still don’t quite know who is continuing to push the beat writer’s narrative that Soto and Lindor don’t like each other; is it one of them, or their PR team, or someone within the Mets, or just the writers needing easy articles to write

“[Lindor’s] defense and his bat, he’s elite. He’s one of the best defensive players in the game and I think he’s going to help a lot.” -Juan Soto [New York Post]

Nolan McLean continues to remind me of R.A. Dickey and Jacob deGrom as being must watch starts on a dismal team

“Man, that was excellent. [Nolan McLean] dominated that lineup.” -Carlos Mendoza [MLB]

“Awesome. He was attacking with every pitch, and obviously, he’s got what, five-plus pitches? When he’s doing that, he’s pretty good.” -Bo Bichette [MLB]

“I wouldn’t say I put any more pressure or responsibility on myself. Every time I go out there, I’m trying to win a baseball game. I think if everybody’s trying to do that and we’re all pulling the same rope, good things will happen.” -Nolan McLean [MLB]

From your lips to Dickey’s ears

“I think that’s contagious, too. Hopefully, what Nolan did today, now we got Sean [Manaea] tomorrow and Freddy and some of the other guys, we need them to step up. They’re more than capable. So, trust those guys. They’re going to go on a run here.” -Carlos Mendoza [MLB]

あなたのその言葉が神様に届きますように

“As long as I can prepare the way I should prepare between outings, I should be able to be effective.” -Kodai Senga [New York Post]