Category: MLB

The Kansas City Royals’ struggles to start the season can mostly placed on the offense. They entered Monday’s game last in MLB in runs scored, and the only reason they left that position was that the Mets had a day off Monday and the Royals had the benefit of the Zombie Runner in extra innings. While I still see improved plate discipline in the underlying statistics, my column praising their approach aged like milk. The offense right now is a disaster.

Still, the Royals have had two leads entering the ninth inning over the past week, and manager Matt Quatraro turned to reliever Lucas Erceg to secure the save. Unfortunately, Erceg blew the save against the Detroit Tigers on Thursday and the Baltimore Orioles on Monday. Not that any blown save feels good for fans or players, but both of these blown leads felt particularly brutal.

Erceg entered the ninth inning Thursday in Detroit with a two-run lead. Vinnie Pasquantino hit his first home run of the season Thursday in the top of the ninth inning, which gave the team an insurance run, and I was feeling great about their chances to salvage a game against the Tigers. Erceg let the first two batters reach, then got the next two batters out. Frustratingly, the next two Detroit hitters got hits, driving in three runs and giving Erceg his first blown save of the year in a complete gut punch of a loss.

The Royals right-hander had his next chance at redemption on Monday night at Kauffman against the Orioles. He procedeed to walk Gunnar Henderson, pick off Henderson (the shortstops second pickoff out of the night), sandwiched a pair of walks around a groundout before allowing a single to Samuel Basallo which tied the game. Erceg escaped the inning without losing the game, but the Royals would never regain the lead. The Royals and Orioles would go back in forth in extra innings before Baltimore blew the game open with a five-run twelth inning. Kansas City fought valiantly back, but ended up losing 7-5 in a game that felt straight out of 2006.

The Royals offensive ineptitude and twelfth inning meltdown on Monday wasn’t Erceg’s fault, but it’s beyond frustrating to see an offense strand 16 runners and blow a save in the same game. It feels like the Royals can’t catch a break right now and are pressing because of it, and I’d be surprised if the players aren’t feeling some of that as well. Having a shutdown closer wouldn’t magically fix all of this team’s problems, but it could at least help staunch the bleeding while the offense remembers how to drive in runners. Right now, however, the team’s former shutdown closer has gotten shaky.

So what is going on with Erceg? We are still in a very small sample size for this year, but he was not as dominant last year as he was in 2024 when the Royals acquired him in a trade from the Oakland Athletics, so this is starting to feel like a trend away from his dominance. Erceg’s strikeout rate dropped dramatically last year, from 10.51 K/9 to 7.04. He induced more ground balls which helped him remain effective , but all the underlying statistics suggest he was fortunate to only post a 2.64 ERA.

It’s still an extremely small sample size for this year, but the trend line for less strikeouts has continued. His 2026 K/9 after 8.1 innings pitched is 5.4. He’s walked more batters than he has struck out. His Statcast page suggests that he’s earned his results and has not just been unlucky; the reliever is in the 6th percentile in chase rate and the 2nd percentile in whiff percentage. In 2024, he was in the 84th percentile in chase and 86th percentile in whiff percentage. He may be third in the AL in saves with five, but the underlying numbers and the last two outings paint a portrait of a pitcher who is really struggling.

Last night’s at-bat against Orioles first baseman Pete Alonso was a perfect illustration of the struggle Erceg is having right now. The reliever had Alonso down 1-2 in the count, but then threw three straight sliders out of the zone and Alonso did not chase any of them. The Polar Bear had two straight check swings on the first two sliders, but he managed to just hold up. After Alonso drew a walk, Basallo hit a 1-2 fastball for a single, tying the game. 2024 Erceg is for sure able to strike out either Alonso or Basallo, but so far 2026 Erceg was not able to punch out either hitter, and the Royals paid for it.

I actually thought the life on Erceg’s pitches Monday night looked good, but his control was not sharp, hence the three walks. I don’t know how much of a leash the Royals can have with Erceg right now to figure out his command. The Royals need effective Erceg to return and in a hurry, or they need to move on to their third choice to close games this year. The team is 7-16 and trying to avoid playing themselves out of the playoffs before May. If the team feels like that even if they do have a lead it will just be blown in the ninth, then this season will go completely haywire.The 7-16 start and seven game losing streak hasn’t been Erceg’s fault, but he’s at least been part of the problem and not part of the solution.

RHP Brody Brecht (No. 3 PuRP) was drafted 38th overall by the Colorado Rockies in the Competitive Balance A round of the 2024 MLB Draft. He made his professional debut with the ACL Rockies in 2025, where he pitched just four games before being promoted to Low-A Fresno. In 2026, he was promoted to High-A Spokane where he has made three starts and allowed four runs on five hits with five walks and 15 strikeouts in 8.2 total innings. Things started a little rough for Brecht in 2026, but they’ve gotten progressively better over the three starts (see below).

However, in 16 starts with the Grizzlies in 2025, Brecht posted a 1-4 record and a 2.60 ERA. Some of that season was spent on the injured list with a back injury, but Brecht still learned a lot in his first pro season.

“I think just learning how to be a pitcher and calling my own game,” Brecht said of his biggest takeaway. “That’s something I didn’t do when I was in college. We had a pitching coach, and he called it all, so I think just learning how to read hitters – if they’re late on a fastball or ahead, just learning how to attack them and sequence them the best way I can. So I definitely say that was a good learning thing for me, and then just getting a routine as well. You’re at the same place for six days, so as a starter, you know when you’re throwing. So just finding that routine that works the best for you was big, too.”

And although he appreciates that the Rockies are suggesting pitches from the dugout, he has his own philosophy regardless of who’s calling the pitches.

“I’m a big believer that the wrong pitch thrown with conviction is better than the right pitch thrown with doubt,” he said. “I think any time I step on that rubber, I want to already know what pitch I’m throwing and I want to be committed to it. And I think that’s the best way to go about it.”

Another big lesson Brecht learned in Fresno was how to get into a routine.

“You try to find it in spring training, but it’s a little different just getting up to speed and trying to stay healthy,” he said. “That’s the biggest thing in spring training. But once you get in the season, you get those first couple of road trips and a couple of home series – I think after that first month, you really start figuring out a groove and what works for you. So I feel like I found that.”

Part of the reason that Brecht chose to attend the University of Iowa instead of going pro right out of high school was his interest in playing football as well as baseball. He redshirted his first season in 2021, but saw action in 11 games in 2022. Injuries derailed his football career, though, so he turned his focus back to baseball. However, he still has a lot of lessons that he took from his time as a two-sport athlete.

“It’s in me for sure, just being an athlete,” he said. “I try to stay with my training – sprinting, running, all that stuff – and still stay explosive like when I was playing. And then just the mentality of hard work and showing up every day. You may not feel like it, but you’ve got to get it done. That’s still in there for sure. Could I go out there right now and play? You might have to give me a few months to start training, but I definitely try to still be an athlete out there.”

During spring training, Brecht focused on “getting back to [he] was and being an athlete out there.”

“Once I stopped playing football, I feel like I tried to get perfect mechanics and just tried to be a pitcher. And that’s just not who I am. I’m an athlete out there. So I think just switching up some training and arm build up, just making sure I can stay healthy out there was a big thing this offseason. And then learning a curveball, adding that so we can have a four-pitch mix was good. And just staying in the zone – attacking and getting ahead is the biggest thing.”

Aside from the physical adjustments he’s made, Brecht is also working on the mental side of his game. Notably, he works with Brian Kane – Chase Dollander’s mental skills coach. 

“He talks about that: if you get behind 0-2 or 1-2, in the past, for me – and something I still struggle with – is that it can quickly turn into 2-2 or 3-2 because you’re trying to throw the nastiest slider you’ve ever thrown. But you don’t need to – just make it competitive… And for me, my mindset is that I’m throwing it down the middle until I get to two strikes and the eight guys behind you can get outs for you.”

Additionally, Brecht has a goal of going deeper into games while also “not trying to punch everybody out.”

“I think if you get ahead and you stay ahead, then the strikeouts will come. But my goal out there isn’t to strike out 10 every time I go out there. It’s just to execute one pitch, and if I strike him out, great. If it’s 0-2 and I strike him out, great. If he gets a pop up, great. Like, it doesn’t matter to me. I’m just trying to go deep in the ballgame.”

He also has his routine that he follows on game days that help him get in the mental space to perform.

“For me, sitting around all day thinking about the game isn’t beneficial for me. I just feel that my anxiety goes up and my stress goes up,” he said. “So for me, just getting away from the game – whether it’s playing some video games, spending time with family, I think that’s really good. I like to go on walks and just get the body moving. I don’t want to sit around all day. 

“And then once I get into my routine, I’ll listen to a podcast out there over the execution of baseball and talk about the execution of a pitch. It’s by Harvey Dorfin called The Mental ABC’s of Pitching,” he continued. “So I do a chapter on game days and then I’ll go watch a video of me executing pitches – I call it my mind movie – swings and misses, attacking and getting ahead and all that. And I’ll do mental imagery. But on game days, I’ll do that before and then just listen to some Christian music to keep me calm so I can go out there and just be in control of myself.”

Brecht was chosen to not only represent the Rockies in the 2026 Spring Breakout game, but also to start the game. Unfortunately, he got lit up early and posted a final line of five runs (four earned) on four hits with four walks and two strikeouts over 1.2 innings. So far in Spokane, he’s been pitching alright but he still has some goals that he’s hoping to achieve in 2026.

“I think the biggest thing is just staying healthy,” he said. “I missed some time last year [with a back injury], so just getting out of here healthy and staying healthy throughout the season is going to be the biggest thing. And then just continue to build upon each outing, and know that each time I put on a Rockies jersey is definitely a blessing. So just not taking any day for granted.”

Weekly Pebble Report: April 13th-19th

Triple-A: Albuquerque Isotopes (4-2, 12-9 Overall)

It was another successful week for the Albuquerque Isotopes. Hosting the Oklahoma City Dodgers (Los Angeles Dodgers) at home, the Isotopes won four games to take back-to-back series for the first time since June 2024. It was also the first time Albuquerque earned a home series victory over Oklahoma City since May 20-25, 2021, and just their third since 2012. The Isotopes lost the series opener, won games two and three, dropped game four 13-12, then won the next two to close out the series.

The offense produced plenty during the series, slashing .329/.439/.472 with their 71 hits and 56 runs scored, topping the Pacific Coast League. Additionally, the Isotopes ended up with more walks (41) than strikeouts (40) by the end of the series. On the mound, the pitching staff posted a 6.67 ERA over 54 innings, though the Isotopes only allowed more than six runs in a game twice, each game resulting in a loss. They managed 58 strikeouts against 36 walks and gave up six home runs.

⬆️ Stock Up:Sterlin Silver

Sterlin Thompson (No. 13 PuRP) had a productive week at the plate, slashing .368/.500/.526 with a home run and a team-leading seven RBI. He went 7-for-19 with five walks against one strikeout and added a stolen base for good measure while scoring seven runs. Thomspson is now batting .309/.427/.412 on the season through his first 18 games. While quite a bit of attention is being given to other prospects in Albuquerque, Thompson also has a good chance of debuting this season, especially since he is already on the 40-man roster.

⬇️ Stock Down:Veen Losing the Sheen

Consistency and success continue to elude Zac Veen (No. 9 PuRP) in Albuquerque. While he displayed solid plate discipline in the series with four walks against five strikeouts, he went 5-for-23 with a double. On the season, Veen is now batting just .227/.288/.288 with 17 strikeouts and six walks in 17 games. The improvement with swing decisions is nice to see, but he will need to start producing a little more pop at the plate, as he now has just four extra-base hits, all of which are doubles.

Upcoming

The Isotopes head on the road to face the Sacramento River Cats (San Francisco Giants) to start a new series on Tuesday.

Double-A: Hartford Yard Goats (4-1, 5-9 Overall)

The Yard Goats stumbled out of the gate against the Richmond Flying Squirrels (San Francisco Giants) with back-to-back losses in which they gave up a combined 24 runs. Hartford yielded 42 total runs to the Flying Squirrels in five games after the series finale was rained out.

⬆️ Stock Up:Longwell Long Ball

Slugging first baseman Aidan Longwell seemed to finally find his footing at the end of last week’s series against the Fightin’ Phils. Against the Flying Squirrels he continued to hit the ball well. In five games he went 8-for-21 with a home run—his first at the Double-A level—two doubles, and just one strikeout.

⬇️ Stock Down:Stormy Weatherly

Left-handed reliever Sam Weatherly hasn’t quite found his way through the clouds to start the 2026 season. He’s given up an earned run in all five of his appearances and given up at least two in three of those outings. Weatherly made two appearances against Richmond at two innings each and gave up two earned runs in both. He allowed seven total hit, including a home run. He walked two batters and struck out three.

Upcoming

The Yard Goats will look to right the ship in a six game road series against the Portland Sea Dogs (Boston Red Sox).

High-A: Spokane Indians (2-4, 6-9 Overall)

It was a tough week for the Spokane Indians. They won their first game against the Vancouver Canadians (Toronto Blue Jays), but won just one game the rest of the series. Lack of offense was a prominent issue, especially over the final three games of the set. In those last three games the Indians scored just four runs while the Canadians scored 16.

⬆️ Stock Up:Vancouver Got Brecht

The titular Brody Brecht had an excellent week on the mound. Divided into two three-inning starts to bookend the series, Brecht pitched six total innings and gave up just one earned run on three hits and three walks with a total of 11 strikeouts. Brecht’s best outing came on the Sunday finale, where he held the Canadians hitless with five strikeouts.

⬆️ Stock Up:¡Vamos, Vargas!

Jordy Vargas (no. 21 PuRP) has continued his excellent start to the season with a quality start against the Canadians. Vargas shut out Vancouver for six innings, giving up just two hits and a walk while striking out seven batters. Through his first three starts he has a 1.29 ERA over 14 innings with 17 strikeouts and a 0.79 WHIP.

Upcoming

The Indians are off to Everett to take on the AquaSox (Seattle Mariners) for the second time this season.

Low-A: Fresno Grizzlies (4-2, 10-4 Overall)

The Grizzlies faced off against the newly formed Ontario Tower Buzzers (Los Angeles Dodgers) for the first time and walked away with a fairly dominant 4-2 series win. Offense was the name of the game, as the Grizzlies scored at least seven runs in four of the six games. They also had two games—both victories—in which they scored a whopping 18 runs, though they did give up 23 runs in a loss for the series finale.

⬆️ Stock Up:Thach Smash

The series against Ontario was quite the coming-out party for 21-year-old first baseman Tanner Thach, the 2025 eighth round selection out of the University of North Carolina at Wilmington. Thach tore the cover off the ball against the Tower Buzzers, going 13-for-28 at the plate with five doubles, three home runs, and 18 RBIs as he played in all six games. He also drew more walks (four) than strikeouts (two). Thach went 4-for-6 in the series opener with seven RBI and two of his home runs.

⬇️ Stock Down:Jhon Doe

The Rockies signed left-handed pitcher Jhon Medina out of the Dominican Republic as part of their 2023 international class. After three solid seasons in the Dominican Summer League and Arizona Complex League, the 20-year-old was assigned to Low-A Fresno for the season. Unfortunately, his Low-A debut has been a difficult one. In four appearances—including one start—he has an ERA of 19.96 over 7.2 innings. He has six strikeouts to 13 walks and has given up at least three earned runs in three of his four appearances. His first outing against Ontario lasted just 0.2 innings as he gave up eight earned runs on four hits and four walks. His second outing was smoother by comparison with three earned runs on four hits and three walks over three innings.

Upcoming

The Grizzlies are back in Fresno this week for a series against the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes. The former Dodgers affiliate now operates as the Low-A team for the Los Angeles Angels.

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Hey, the Braves have won six in a row! That’s their longest winning streak at a point where it mattered (the ten-game streak last September doesn’t count…) since pretty much the exact same period in 2024. That streak started on April 14, against Miami, saw them sweep the Astros in Houston, and then return home and win a series against the Rangers before dropping the finale on April 21. This streak also began on April 14 against Miami, and while Philadelphia and Washington are a bit different than Texas, we’re here on April 21 once again. Can the Braves run it to seven games this time?

For this endeavor, the Braves will have Reynaldo Lopez starting against the team that signed him out of the Dominican Republic in 2012. Now with his fifth major league team, Lopez will look to continue his potential upswing as he starts in one of his previous stomping grounds. I say upswing because, through four starts, Lopez has had an interesting season so far.

His first two games were pretty horrible peripherals-wise (combined 6/3 K/BB ratio with two homers allowed in 11 innings), but he was only charged with a solo homer in each game and the Braves won both. His next start was the one where the fisticuffs with Jorge Soler transpired, and he had a much better 7/2 K/BB ratio but still allowed a homer before getting the boot after the dramatics, having completed 4 2/3 innings of work. His most recent outing came against the Marlins, and it looked much better with a 6/3 K/BB ratio in five frames, but the Marlins blooped and bled the Braves for four runs, three of which were charged in earned fashion to Lopez. It was his first start of the year where he wasn’t taken deep. (Notably, Dominic Smith’s two bits of heroics this season have both come in Lopez starts.)

So, will Lopez continue improving against a good-swinging Nationals team? Will it be Smith’s heroics that rescue the Braves and push the winning streak to seven? Or, will something else happen? Stay tuned.

Ah, but not before I talk about the Nationals and their starter for a bit. You witnessed their struggles with run prevention if you watched last night’s game. They’ve lost three of four, and have allowed at least seven runs in four of their last five games, a shutout of the Giants on Sunday the main exception (and their first shutout of the year). Drawing the start will be 30-year-old Foster Griffin, who spent the prior three seasons pitching in Japan before returning stateside on a $5.5 million, one-year deal with Washington.

The Nats have won three of Griffin’s four starts, and his line is fine enough (77 ERA-, 107 FIP-, 100 xFIP-) for a guy pitching behind their sticks (he’s also somehow benefited from strand rate stuff in a way that his teammates really haven’t, and haven’t enabled, either). He acquitted himself pretty well against the Phillies (5/0 K/BB, a homer) and the mighty mighty Dodgers (6/3 K/BB, a homer) before struggling against the Brewers (1/3 K/BB, but no homers). But, he had a nice start against the Pirates (7/1 K/BB, also a homer) — though the homer was a game-tying three-run shot from Marcell Ozuna, so… oops.

Griffin is a fairly inefficient junkballer lefty. He tries to get ahead and then get chases far off the plate with a bevy of breaking stuff. Unfortunately, he doesn’t throw very hard or get many whiffs on the various “straight” stuff he throws; further, his oddball, heavy horizontal break cutter, which is his primary pitch, lacks the command to avoid getting mashed, at least so far. The Braves’ righties punishing his cutter and four-seamer, which skitter and skate around the middle of the plate, will be a key to chasing him. That should play pretty well into the Braves’ recent preference to swing early and often, but we’ll see what happens.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Tuesday, April 21, 6:45 p.m. EDT

Location: Nationals Park, Washington, DC

TV: BravesVision (and Nationals.tv if that works for you…)

Streaming: MLB.tv (and Braves.tv, Nationals.tv if you’re in-market, etc.)

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

Edwin Díaz won’t be closing games for the Dodgers for the foreseeable future, as he’ll be sidelined until the second half of the season. The Dodgers don’t seem all that interested in anointing another pitcher into the capital-c Closer role in the interim, which is to be expected given how they generally operate.

This is what manager Dave Roberts said on Monday afternoon at Coors Field ahead of the series finale against the Colorado Rockies. From Bill Plunkett at the Orange County Register:

“I do feel comfortable with a handful of guys, really, that I feel that can close out games for us,” Roberts said. “So right now, I’m not gonna name a closer.”

The Dodgers have been hesitant to name a closer pretty much since Kenley Jansen left the organization. Even as Evan Phillips was the clear usual choice as closer when healthy in 2023 and 2024, they didn’t name him as closer. But even if anointed, the title can always be temporary. Roberts did not hesitate to remove Jansen from closing duties in his later years with the club, especially in the postseason.

Generally speaking, the Dodgers don’t like to paint themselves into a corner. Naming a closer doesn’t really accomplish much other than ego boosting. It took someone with Díaz’s stature and accomplishments to stray from that path.

Alex Vesia has earned the two saves not recorded by Díaz on the Dodgers this year. Given how they’ve been used and their career track records, expect Tanner Scott and Blake Treinen to get closing opportunities as well. Those three were mentioned by name by Roberts on Monday, and they’ve pitched in the highest-leverage situations this season on the staff among active pitchers.

A dozen different Dodgers recorded saves last year, and a whopping 14 pitchers did so in 2024 (15, counting Walker Buehler’s championship-clincher). Today’s question is a simple one: which Dodgers pitcher(s) would you like to see close games with Edwin Díaz on the shelf?

With the Mets currently on an 11-game losing streak, they could certainly use superstar Juan Soto back as soon as possible.

And it sounds like Soto's return date is now set.

According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the Mets' "current plan" is for Soto to be activated ahead of Wednesday's game against the Minnesota Twins, the second game of the three-game series. 

The most recent update on Soto from manager Carlos Mendoza noted that Soto had been taking live at-bats and had been doing "high-intensity running."

Soto hasn't played since April 3, when he landed on the IL with a calf strain. The Mets won their first three games without Soto, and then started their current 11-game skid.

Soto had been off to a tremendous start, slashing .355/.412/.516 with one home run and five RBI. The Mets offense has struggled mightily over the last 11 games, averaging just 1.7 runs per game during that span, so adding Soto back into the mix should provide a much-needed boost.

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It's Dinger Tuesday, which is a great day to get out of a home-run rut. The current weather might be suppressing some four-baggers, so bettors need to pick their MLB player prop spots today on a full schedule. 

The spots I'm picking are in Anaheim, where two of my favorite pitcher fades are starting in Patrick Corbin and Jack Kochanowicz, and in Denver, where the thin air at Coors Field is always prime for exploiting power. In this case, I'm backing Colorado Rockies outfielder Brenton Doyle.

Below are my favorite MLB home run props for Tuesday, April 21.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Mike Trout	+350
Kazuma Okamoto	+790
Brenton Doyle	+700
💲Today's HR parlay	+29017

Mike Trout (+350)

I don’t dip too much into the mid-300s, but getting the most probable Los Angeles Angels home-run hitter 75 points better than fair is tough to pass up against Patrick Corbin. Mike Trout is priced at +350 to go deep for an eighth time this year, which is stronger than most of his recent closing numbers. The matchup sets up well, as Corbin owns one of the highest Blast Contact% rates among starters.

Corbin’s leash has been extended and could push 90+ pitches, but even if he exits early, the Toronto Blue Jays bullpen may be without multiple high-leverage arms. Right-handed hitters are batting around .300 against Corbin since 2024, and the setting helps with 10-mph winds blowing out to center. Angel Stadium also has the lowest average fence height in baseball. 

• Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Network West, SN1

Kazuma Okamoto (+790)

Let’s stay in Anaheim, as Jack Kochanowicz is another arm to target on Dinger Tuesday.

His command has been poor this year (15 walks in 23+ innings), and he also struggles to keep the ball in the park, allowing plenty of hard contact with the 14th-worst Blast Contact% since last season. He does generate ground balls, but when hitters elevate, they often leave the yard — he had the highest HR/FB rate among MLB starters last year.

Let’s back a name that has already cashed for us this season in Kazuma Okamoto, who brings strong home run metrics, especially in Blast Contact% and Ideal Attack Angle%.

There’s some swing-and-miss, but the matchup is elite, and the price is right, with a breakeven around +650. It’s also a Top-10 park for right-handed power, and the wind blowing out only helps.

• Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Network West, SN1

Brenton Doyle (+700)

Brenton Doyle might hit near the bottom of the Colorado Rockies lineup, but his +700 home run price at home vs. Randy Vásquez is a great number that I’d play down to +600.

Coors Field is always a strong backdrop, but it stands out even more on this slate and projects as today's top hitting environment. The snow is gone, temperatures are up to 80 degrees, and the wind is blowing out to left field — all pointing to a favorable home run setup.

Vásquez allows solid contact and ranks among the worst pitchers in baseball in Blast Contact% through the first month. Doyle may only have one homer so far, but it came against Vásquez two weeks ago, and he also brings one of the fastest swings in the Colorado lineup.

• Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Padres.TV, Rockies.TV

Today’s HR parlay

Mike Trout	Bet Now +29017
Kazuma Okamoto
Brenton Doyle

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

While Cubs manager Craig Counsell was having his usual pre-game media scrum on Monday, he decided to opine about Dodgers pitcher/DH Shohei Ohtani and the rule that allows an exception for the Dodgers to have essentially an extra pitcher on their roster, as MLB teams are now limited to 13 pitchers on their 26-man roster.

Counsell called the rule “bizarre” and added:

“I’ve never understood it,” Counsell said. “It’s an offensive rule, essentially. It’s a rule to help offense, more than anything, if you ask me. And then there’s one team that’s allowed to carry basically one of both, and he gets special consideration, which is probably the most bizarre rule. For one team.”

Well… yes, it’s for one team. At this time. Any team that has a player that meets these requirements can have a similar exception:

To qualify for a two-way designation, players must meet the following criteria in either the current season or any of the two previous seasons:

Pitched at least 20 major-league innings

Started at least 20 games as a position player or DH, with at least three plate appearances in each of those games

With his two-way designation, Ohtani does not count against the Dodgers’ pitcher total on their active roster, another luxury for a franchise with an enormous payroll.

The thing is, everyone in baseball knows Ohtani is a unicorn. There isn’t anyone in MLB history who’s done what Ohtani has — no, not even Babe Ruth, who was a good pitcher for several years before becoming the legendary hitter he was. Ruth only did the pitching/hitting combo for, really, two years (1918-19) before pretty much quitting pitching (he pitched in only five games after 1919).

Ohtani has been a top pitcher and hitter for several seasons, winning three MVP awards for his combined production (though it could be argued he could have been MVP only as a hitter, and won Cy Young Awards had he only been a pitcher). He has 17.0 career bWAR as a pitcher and 36.0 bWAR as a hitter — no one’s ever come close to that, though Ruth did amass 20.4 career bWAR pitching. Ohtani will easily double that. He’s a Hall of Fame player, right now, and could easily wind up with 600 career home runs, 300 career stolen bases and 100 career wins (in an era when wins are downplayed), and possibly 2,000 strikeouts.

Now if any other team can find a player like that, they’d get the same roster exception the Dodgers have. Only that’s not likely to happen, because Ohtani is unique. And I use the word “unique” as it’s supposed to be used, meaning “only one.”

Yes, the rule is called the “Ohtani Rule.” So what? Ohtani is good for baseball and Counsell’s comments, in my view, shouldn’t have been made.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts had a pointed response for Counsell, quoted in this Los Angeles Times article by Steve Henson:

“He’s an exception because he’s an exceptional player,” the Dodgers manager told reporters after his team’s 12-3 victory against the Colorado Rockies.

“It certainly benefits us, because we have the player,” he said. “But that’s something that, any team that had Ohtani would have that player.

“We’re more than willing for other teams to go out and find a player who can do both.”

It’s something Counsell shouldn’t have said, in my view, and especially not just before a weekend series coming up between the Cubs and Dodgers at Dodger Stadium this weekend. You can be sure this topic will be revisited before that series.

Oh, and Ohtani is starting tonight against the Giants. If the Dodgers hold to a five-man rotation (though this year, they’ve given Ohtani six, seven and five days of rest between starts), Ohtani could possibly start against the Cubs Sunday afternoon in Los Angeles.

That’d be interesting just for Counsell’s comments alone, but also — Ohtani has never pitched against the Cubs, one of just two teams he’s never faced (the other: the Brewers).

As always, we await developments.

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is swinging a hit bat right now, and my Blue Jays vs. Angels predictions expect him to remain hot tonight in a plus-matchup against Jack Kochanowicz.

Find out more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, April 21. 

Blue Jays vs Angels predictions

Blue Jays vs Angels best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. O 1.5 total bases (+110)

You’re getting great value on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at +110 to go Over his bases total tonight. 

He has been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball this season, batting .354, the second-highest average in the majors. 

Vladdy is also currently riding an 11-game hitting streak, averaging 2.54 bases per contest in that stretch. 

Additionally, Guerrero Jr. has faced Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz three times in his career, going 2-for-3 against him.

Kochanowicz primarily uses his sinker against right-handed batters with a 43% usage. That’ll be dangerous against Vladdy, who owns a .444 average against the pitch with a 56% hard-hit rate. 

COVERS INTEL: Guerrero Jr. owns a 1.136 OPS during this current 11-game hitting streak. 

Blue Jays vs Angels same-game parlay (SGP)

I’ll continue to bank on the Toronto Blue Jays’ offense remaining hot and take the suddenly surging Nathan Luke’s to keep swinging the bat well by taking Over 0.5 hits. After an abysmal start, Luke’s has totalled eight hits while on a current four-game hitting streak. He is also 1-for-2 against Kochanowicz in his career.

For the last leg of the SGP, I’ll take Over 1.5 walks for Kochanowicz. The Los Angeles Angels righty has struggled right he zone this season, going Over the total in each of his four starts. He is also averaging 3.75 walks per game this season, which ranks in the 13th percentile in walk-rate among all pitchers.

Blue Jays vs Angels SGP

• Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
• Lukes Over 0.5 hits 
• Kochanowicz Over 1.5 walks

Blue Jays vs Angels home run pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+600)

I’ll make this a half-unit wager.

Kochanowicz is a ground-ball pitcher who doesn’t give up many homers — just one on the year. 

However, Guerrero Jr. has been known to hit his homers in bunches, so I’ll bet on him getting another one tonight in Angel Stadium after going yard last night. 

Additionally, Vladdy does seem to torture sinker ballers. He has a 56.6% hard-hit rate against the pitch this season, while posting a .532 slug-rate against it in 2025.

Blue Jays vs Angels odds

• Moneyline: Toronto +101 | Los Angeles -110
• Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-200) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9

Blue Jays vs Angels trend

The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 42% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Angels.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Angels and game info

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Once again this spring, 25-year-old Keider Montero found himself on the outside of the Detroit Tigers starting rotation. Justin Verlander’s hip injury opened up an opportunity, and so far Montero is running with it to a degree we haven’t seen from him in his two-year major league career. Three starts isn’t enough to say anything has truly changed for him, but there are a few interesting developments to keep an eye on as he seems in line to get at least 2 or 3 more starts before Verlander might be ready to return.

The result have certainly been good. Through 18 1/3 innings and three starts, which is really nice volume of innings in the first place, Montero holds a 3.31 ERA with a 1.66 FIP to back it up. The first key to that success is Montero’s walk rate. The right-hander has walked just 3.2 percent of hitters faced. He always throwns a really good volume of first pitch strikes, which certainly helps, and he’s doing so again this season at 65.1 percent first pitch strikes. That’s pretty standard for Montero but it does put him in a good position to succeed rather than falling behind hitters. League average first pitch strike rate is 60.5 percent. Montero is throwing three percent more strikes than last year overall, and so far he’s done so without getting hit hard. He’s yet to allow a home run. That will change, but it’s still a positive step that he’s been able to attack the zone a little more without retribution from hitters.

If there’s a reason he’s throwing more strikes beyond simply repeating his delivery better and rebounding after a poor sequence, all marks of a maturing starting pitcher, it’s that he’s throwing more fastballs overall. Obviously, for most pitchers fastballs are the easiest pitches to spot around the strike zone. Montero has so far used 33.2 percent fourseam fastballs and 25.7 percent sinkers. Overall that’s about 8 percent more fastballs than he was throwing last season and his velocity is up almost a half a mile per hour on average, despite the cooler weather he’s dealt with overall by making all three starts at home in Comerica Park.

There’s nothing significantly different about either fastball type this season. As we saw in the spring, Montero can reach back for 97 and even 98 here and there when he wants it, but he’s largely stayed within himself, spotted fastballs well and avoided damage. That’s a good recipe for success in terms of avoiding walks and being efficient, but without a true plus or better heater, it can also lead to more home runs allowed.

We’ll have to see if this is more than early season strategy. In a bigger park in generally cool spring weather, it’s harder to hit the ball out of the park and Montero has taken advantage by attacking the zone and forcing opposing hitters to swing the bat. So far they haven’t been able to make him pay for that approach, but that could change as the weather warms up. It’s a fairly standard cold weather strategy as gripping breaking balls and changeups is trickier in cool conditions. Hitters may eventually get to the fastball, but it’s just as likely that Chris Fetter will adjust Montero’s pitch mix as the weather improves. So early in the year, all these things are moving targets and it’s hard to take too much from usage changes so soon. It’s likely this is just taking advantage of the weather to attack with a little more impunity that Montero will have when it’s 85 degrees this summer.

Another notable change to his pitch mix early on is throwing less sliders and more changeups. He threw 22 percent sliders in 2025, and only 11.1 percent sliders so far this season. He gave up 7 homers and a .667 slug against the slide piece last season, so it certainly makes sense to use it less, particularly as he still has his knuckle curve to work with. Montero really doesn’t get that many whiffs, particularly to the degree stuff metrics might suggest on the breaking stuff. His strikeout rate is up from 18.5 percent last year, including relief appearances, to 23.5 percent early on. He’s not getting more swing and miss, but he is pounding the edges a little more effective with his two fastball types, while throwing a more even mix of sliders, knuckle curves, and changeups. His ability to lean into the fastballs more and cut usage of the breaking stuff has made both breaking balls more effective so far. We’ll have to see if that lasts if the fourseamer and sinker start to get hit harder.

One minor development that might help prevent that is the better depth Montero is getting on his split changeup. He’s getting two inches more drop on it than he did last year, and his whiff rate is up from 21.1 percent to 33.3 percent. He’s also shown some willingness to use it against right-handers instead of exclusively to lefties. That’s particularly good to note, as he’s also throwing it 4.5 percent of the time. He’s using his fastballs and changeups more, and trimming back the breaking balls more to use to steal strikes, and as chase pitches only once he’s ahead in counts. Again, the question is whether he can get away with throwing more fastballs as the weather improves. The lynchpin to making this approach work is likely the changeup, so we’ll hope he sustains improvement with that pitch in particular.

Overall, there are no signs of a major breakout here, but there are certainly hints of a more mature pitcher who is locating more consistently and recovering faster when he gets out of sync or makes a bad pitch. There’s no new pitch or a big velocity bump. No arm angle adjustment or big change in spin profile on a pitch. Command improvements take more time to buy into, and he may just be throwing the changeup a little more because of the specifics lineups and conditions he’s faced early on.

Right now, he’s just getting more out of his stuff and showing confidence in the two fastball types and the fact that neither was hit all that hard last year. The hope would be that with the fourseam and sinker better established and Montero throwing more strikes overall, hitters reading that scouting report may start swinging more aggressively, knowing that he’s going to attack with fastballs. Once you put that in their heads, the secondary stuff may be more effective overall, but especially in terms of drawing whiffs against hitters expecting more fastballs.

It’s always a cat and mouse game, and pitching coaches Chris Fetter and Robin Lund, along with catchers Dillon Dingler and Jake Rogers, play it well. But unfortunately there’s no sign of a real improvement in any individual pitch, other than simply more consistency. That may be enough to make Montero a more legitimate mid-rotation level starting pitcher. But it will take a lot more starts to prove out whether these are signs of a pitcher in better command of his game, or just a pitcher taking advantage of April weather to attack more, knowing that it’s harder for hitters to do damage in chilly early spring conditions.

The Yankees entered their recent series against the Royals needing a serious shift in momentum. They were 2-7 in their previous nine games — a stretch which saw them get one-hit by the Rays, fail to score for 17 straight innings, and surrender 13 home runs and 32 runs total in four games against the Angels. In the final series of the home stand, it became imperative that they turn their ship around before heading out on the road.

That’s just what transpired, the Yankees sweeping the Royals in a much needed laugher series to reduce stress levels and restore confidence. It could have been a different story, Camilo Doval squandering the Yankees’ 2-1 lead by giving up the game-tying home run in the top of the eighth inning of the series opener. That left the Bombers looking for heroics from the impotent bottom of their batting order, somehow finding themselves in the situation of needing to call on Ryan McMahon as a pinch-hitter with two outs — a man whose bat had gone so cold that he was benched for Amed Rosario despite the right-handed Michael Wacha having made the start for the Royals.

We join McMahon with two outs in the eighth, Aaron Boone having inserted him into the game as a defensive replacement for Rosario in the top half of the inning. Ben Rice is on first after his two-out single kept the inning alive against hard-throwing reliever Alex Lange. Lange was once one of the hottest commodities on the reliever market in his first few seasons with the Tigers before injuries sapped his effectiveness and eventually led to his DFA. His fastball used to touch triple digits, and while it has fallen off from those heights, he can still dial it up to the upper-90s. He begins this encounter with a four-seamer at 96 mph.

This is a well-executed heater on the corner up and away. McMahon takes it for called strike one and it’s a good thing he did. As we’ll discuss below, McMahon has a very narrow range of pitch locations that he’s able to make solid contact. Up and away is most certainly not one of those areas, so despite this pitch being in the zone, it is absolutely not one McMahon should be swinging at first pitch.

After watching McMahon take the previous pitch, Lange looks to tunnel a knuckle curve down a similar chute, hoping to either steal another called strike low and away or maybe even induce a chase and whiff.

Once again, McMahon is taking all the way. The pitch is a ball out of Lange’s hand and never looks like a strike during its path to home, making for a pretty straightforward but still decent take from McMahon considering it lands just inches from the corner.

Now that he has shown McMahon two straight pitches away, Lange has him set up to potentially chase a changeup off the plate down and away.

Instead, he spikes this pitch into the dirt on the other side of home plate than he was intending. In a sense, he lets McMahon off the hook here with this automatic take.

Despite showing McMahon the movement profile of the changeup on a non-competitive pitch, Lange makes the curious decision to double up on the pitch.

McMahon gets the off-speed mistake right in his wheelhouse and doesn’t miss, sending it to the opposite field just over the wall in left for the go-ahead, two-run home run, the first extra-base hit of his season. It’s a bizarre pitch selection — McMahon has serious contact issues against high-velocity elevated fastballs and breaking balls below the zone, so he’s certainly not complaining about getting just about the only pitch he can hit in this situation.

Here’s the full AB:

It’s no secret how much McMahon has struggled to begin the year. Among all hitters with at least 50 plate appearances entering play Monday, McMahon’s .130 average ranked third worst, while his 53 wRC+, 32.1-percent strikeout rate, and and 34-percent whiff rate all rank him well into the bottom 15-percent league-wide. I fear that without fundamental changes to his swing mechanics, we can expect more of the same going forward, McMahon under contract this season and next at $16 million a year.

His extreme uppercut swing is aimed toward pulling the ball in the air. However, those mechanics mean he is only able to make contact with pitches below belt-level — the irony being that while his goal is to lift the ball, the only pitches he can hit are the hardest to lift in the air! There’s a very narrow sweet-spot about thigh-high and middle of the plate where he can do damage, and fortunately Lange threw him a pitch exactly in that area. The goal therefore for McMahon is to maximize damage on the few occasions when he sees a pitch like the one Lange threw, and fortunately for the Yankees, McMahon didn’t miss this time.

With each gruesome loss, the bleakness of their situation increases.

You can see it in the numbers. After Monday night’s 5-1 loss to the Cubs, the Phillies are 8-14. They have had a similar, or worse, record a number of times in their long and storied franchise history, and the trends do not portent good tidings.

Generally speaking, bad teams begin a season 8-14. The record usually reflects the talent level of the team. But this Phillies team was expected to reach the postseason once again in 2026. They began the season as one of the National League teams most likely to reach the World Series. They have a payroll approaching $300 million.

And yet, here they sit, keeping company with some of the worst squads in franchise history.

If the Phillies finish with a losing record, like in 25 of the 26 instances listed above, they will not reach the postseason. But prior to the three wild card era that began in 2022, most of the teams listed above knew their seasons were over before April ended. The incentive to play hard, pursue mid-season trades and push for a playoff berth would have been foolish prior to the wild card era, let alone a time when six teams in each league, not 2 or 4, reach the postseason.

Last year, the Cincinnati Reds earned the third wild card with an 83-79 record, while the Tigers took the final wild card with an 87-75 mark. In 2024, it took 89 wins for anyone to earn entry in the NL, while the 86-win Tigers and Royals got the final spots. In ‘23, the Marlins and Diamondbacks each made the playoffs with 84 wins, with Arizona advancing all the way to the World Series, and in ‘22, your very own Philadelphia Phillies snuck into the postseason and went on a breathtaking run after a dreadful April and sputtering September that netted 87 victories during the regular season.

Let’s say it will take 86 wins for the Phillies to reach the playoffs. In order to get there, they would need to go 78-70 the rest of the way. It is not at all unreasonable to think this team can play 8 games over .500 the rest of the way. To get to 90 wins, they need to finish with an 82-66 record. That’s 14 games over .500 over the season’s final five-plus months. Again, far from impossible.

It’s difficult to envision this team going on a run like that right now.

It’s entirely possible that, like the 2012 Phillies, this particular group has reached its end point. It’s possible that, like the 1979 Phillies, it’s simply more of a setback season in which nothing is going to go right. It’s also possible that, like ‘22, the Phillies will stumble to a 22-29 start, replace their manager, and go on another tear.

All of those options seem equally likely.

But as MLB.com noted late last year, other teams have started as slowly, if not slower, and reached the October tournament.

First 25 Games:

Division winners
7-18: 2024 Astros (finished 88-73)
9-16: 2015 Rangers (finished 88-74)
9-16: 2006 Twins (finished 96-66)
10-15: 2006 Padres (finished 88-74)
10-15: 2005 Yankees (finished 95-67)
Seven division winners have started 11-14

Wild Card winners
8-17: 2001 Athletics (finished 102-60)
10-15: 2014 Pirates (finished 88-74)
10-15: 2009 Rockies (finished 92-70)
10-15: 2007 Rockies (finished 90-73)*
10 Wild Card winners have started 11-14

These types of finishes were almost impossible prior to the wild card era in 1995, when four teams in each league reached the postseason. Through 1993, only two teams from each league, division winners of the four divisions, went to the playoffs.

This isn’t to say fans shouldn’t be concerned. The Phillies are playing some awful baseball right now, and there are no signs of a breakthrough. But while their Fangraphs playoff odds have understandably fallen over the last week, especially their chances of winning the NL East (12.4%), they are still being given a 45.0% chance of making the playoffs. Those are the 6th-best odds of any team in the NL, which would, you guessed it, place them in the No. 3 wild card spot.

All that’s difficult to swallow when they’re sporting a -42 run differential that is by far the worst in baseball (Royals -34 are 2nd-worst). Everyone should be prepared for a very different summer than the ones we’ve experienced over the last few years. History is not kind to Phils teams that have started like this.

But this is a different era of baseball, when slow starts to not automatically sink a team’s chances. The Phillies can wait this out, get hot, and still reasonably believe their playoff chances are not sunk.

It’s just not likely.

In New York, Marcus Semien is batting .234 with an adjusted OPS of 73.

In Arlington, Texas, Brandon Nimmo has four home runs, a .311 batting average and a .908 OPS.

In New York, Devin Williams just blew a save to extend the Mets’ losing streak to 11 and is clocking a 7.11 ERA.

In Baltimore, Ryan Helsley is 6-for-6 in save opportunities and is striking out 35% of the batters he’s faced.

In New York, Carson Benge has looked overmatched and not ready for prime time, with a .229 on-base percentage, a 26 adjusted OPS and 18 strikeouts in 70 plate appearances.

In Detroit and St. Louis and Cleveland, Kevin McGonigle, JJ Wetherholt and Chase DeLauter are making the leap to the major leagues look simple.

See where this is going?

The small-minded among us are wondering whether it’s time for Carlos Mendoza to pay for this debacle of a Mets season with his job. Fair to wonder, we suppose, but also beside the point.

Because right now, virtually every button pushed this winter – trading Nimmo for Semien, Helsley’s New York failures begetting Williams’ arrival, Benge handed an outfield job on Opening Day - has turned nuclear during this 7-15 start.

The manager? That’s largely beside the point.

Mendoza can’t hit for those guys, cannot resurrect Jorge Polanco off the injured list, and perhaps doesn’t have the time to await water finding its level and the club’s performance tilting closer to “expected.”

Sure, maybe he should’ve intentionally walked Nico Hoerner in the 10th inning of their 11th consecutive loss. Yet as great and valued as Hoerner is, this isn’t exactly “why did he pitch to Barry Bonds?” territory.

No, this club’s composition is squarely on president David Stearns’ shoulders and to be fair, the jury is still very much out on the group.