Orioles vs. Rays prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for August 21

The first-place Tampa Bay Rays (76-51) open a crucial AL East series in Baltimore against the Orioles (61-67) tonight. With just five wins in their last ten games, the Rays have seen the Yankees cut into their lead in the division while the Orioles have dropped a full two games behind the Twins in the chase for the final Wild Card spot as the result of being swept by those same Yankees earlier this week.

 

The Rays dropped two of three earlier this week against the Blue Jays. The usually stingy Tampa pitching staff allowed 21 runs over the three games. As mentioned earlier, the Orioles are also looking to bounce back this weekend. The Yankees’ hurlers held the O’s to five runs in the series. These teams met last weekend in St. Petersburg with the Orioles taking three of the four games.

 

Freddy Peralta (5-10, 5.27 ERA) takes the ball for Tampa Bay tonight. After a brutal first start with the Rays (7 Earned Runs over 3.2 Innings), Peralta has been solid allowing three runs over six innings against the Athletics on August 10 followed by a stingy but short effort against these Orioles last Sunday in which he surrendered two runs over 4.2 innings. Trevor Rogers (8-8, 4.15 ERA) gets the start for Baltimore. He was on the winning end last Sunday against the Rays allowing just two runs over six innings. In 16 innings this month the southpaw has allowed six earned runs. Since June 1, Rogers has started 13 games and allowed more than two runs just twice – four earned runs July 29 at Detroit and three earned runs June 9 against the Mariners.

 

Lets dive further into tonight’s game and find a sweat or two.

 

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

 

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Game Details and How to Watch: Rays vs. Orioles

 

  • Date: Friday, August 21, 2026
  • Time: 7:15PM EST
  • Site: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
  • City: Baltimore, MD
  • Network/Streaming: Apple TV

 

 

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The Latest Odds: Rays vs. Orioles

The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: Tampa Bay Rays (+111), Baltimore Orioles (-119)
  • Spread: Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (-198), Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+162)
  • Total: 8.0 runs

 

Probable Starting Pitchers – Orioles vs. Rays for August 21

  • Orioles: Trevor Rogers
    Season Totals: 125.2 IP, 8-8, 4.15 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 108K, 35 BB
  • Rays: Freddy Peralta
    Season Totals: 128.0 IP, 5-10, 5.27 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 123K, 53 BB

 

Who’s Hot? Who’s Not! Rays vs. Orioles

  • Yandy Diaz is 7-13 in his career against Trevor Rogers
  • Ryan Vilade is 4-4 including 1 HR against Rogers
  • Junior Caminero is 3-10 against Rogers
  • Colton Cowser is 2-5 including 1 HR against Freddy Peralta in his career
  • Tyler O’Neill is 4-16 against Rogers but has struck out 7 times in those 16 ABs
  • Trevor Rogers has struck out at least 6 opposing hitters in 5 of his last 6 starts

 

Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!

 

Top Betting Trends & Insights: Rays vs. Orioles

  • The O’s are 66-62 on the Run Line this season
  • The Rays are 71-56 on the Run Line this season
  • The OVER has cashed 64 times in Baltimore’s 128 games this season (64-60-4)
  • The OVER has cashed 58 times in Tampa’s 127 games this season (58-64-5)

 

Expert picks & predictions: Rays vs. Orioles

Rotoworld Bet Best Bet

 

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

 

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

 

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for today’s game between the Orioles and the Rays:

 

  • Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
  • Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Orioles on the Run Line.
  • Total: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Game Total OVER 7.5

 

 

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The Diamondbacks look to pick things back up against the Reds

Cincinnati Reds mascot Mr. Redlegs walks through corn stalks onto the original field of the movie "Field of Dreams," Thursday, Aug. 11, 2022, at the MLB Field of Dreams stadium in Dyersville, Iowa. Mlb Field Of Dreams Game Cincinnati Reds At Chicago Cubs Aug 11 0084 | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Co

The Diamondbacks are coming off a disappointing series where they dropped two out of three to the Red Sox, but did get a solid, extra innings win in the finale. Absolutely nothing else of any importance happened.

The Reds have faded from the conversation. After being semi-close by for a while, they have fallen to last place in the NL Central 18 games behind the Brewers, and seven games behind the Padres for the NL Wild Card. They’re 4-6 in their last ten and just kind of coasting.

Game 1 — 8/21, 6:40 PM: Eduardo Rodriguez (4.4 bWAR, 12-4, 2.71 ERA/155 ERA+, 1.21 WHIP) vs. Nick Lodolo (1.3 bWAR, 3-2, 4.52 ERA/95 ERA+, 1.42 WHIP)

After a (potentially very significant) hiccup against the Padres, normal service has resumed for Eduardo Rodriguez. He threw seven innings of two run ball against the Dodgers, recording a season high nine strikeouts, and then another six inning, two run performance against the Braves. He’s done well in a lot of statistics, but I think one that says a lot is the team’s 19-6 record in games that he starts. At the end of the day, winning baseball games is the goal, and Rodriguez has given the team a chance to do that in basically every start he’s had this season.

Lodolo missed a month due to a blister, and he has made two starts since coming back. His first start was rough, giving up four runs in four innings, but his second start was a good bounce back, holding the Marlins scoreless for five innings in his most recent start. This will be his second time facing the Diamondbacks this season, after he pitched 5.1 innings against them on June 12th, holding them two two runs on five hits and one walk.

Game 2 — 8/22, 5:10 PM: Michael Soroka (2.5 bWAR, 8-3, 2.93 ERA/143 ERA+, 1.10 WHIP) vs. TBD

There is always the concern that an extended lay off due to injury can cause rust to build up on a pitcher, but the 51 days between starts doesn’t seem to have been much of a hinderance for Soroka. That first start back was a little short, only 4.1 innings, but he held the Rockies scoreless and struck out four. The three walks weren’t great, but he worked around them. Next time out, he faced a much tougher level of opponent and held the Braves to just two runs in 5.2 innings. It wasn’t enough, but he did keep the team in the game. The bullpen just let it get away from them.

Game 3 — 8/23, 1:15 PM: Mitch Bratt (0.3 bWAR, 1-2, 4.17 ERA/101 ERA+, 1.47 WHIP) vs. Andrew Abbott (2.3 bWAR, 6-8, 4.07 ERA/105 ERA+, 1.40 WHIP)

Bratt is being basically the perfect definition of a #5 starter. He’s not going to be an all-star, and he’s going to have bad starts. His last time out against the Red Sox was one of those. He was only able to manage three innings and gave up three runs in them. He also gave up three walks, something he has struggled with. In his last five starts he has given up a whopping sixteen. If there is one thing he needs to reel in, it’s that. Other than that, if he can just keep up what he’s doing overall, he’s going to be just fine.

Abbott has been pretty consistent since the start of July. You’re going to get five or so innings out of him. He’s going to give up three runs, a handful of walks, and 4-6 strikeouts. That sums up approximately 75% of his games over the last month and a half. If it’s not that, it tends to err on the side of a worse performance, but there were a couple better ones. That said, I’d expect to see something pretty close to that hypothetical line I drew up.

Conclusion

I won’t insult your intelligence by saying this is a must win series. They all are from here on out until the magic or tragic number says 0. On paper the Diamondbacks should have a pretty good shot. The pitching matchups are strongly in their favor, especially. But the off-field clouds hang low, and it remains to be seen if Lovullo will be able to keep them at bay and keep the team on the field focused. I don’t envy him at all on this one, but if he can pull it off, I don’t think anyone will argue he deserves at least another season on the top step of the dug out.

How an investigation into Dodgers owner Mark Walter could impact an MLB lockout

LOS ANGELES, CA - MARCH 27: CEO and Owner Mark Walter of the Los Angeles Dodgers waves to the crowd during the 2025 Back-to-Back World Champions Ring Ceremony prior to the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Los Angeles Dodgers at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium on Friday, March 27, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jessie Alcheh/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

As the 2026 MLB season has unfolded, everyone involved, front offices, players, and fans, has approached this season with a sense of urgency.

The reason? Most observers aren’t sure there will be a season in 2027.

There will be a work stoppage following the completion of the World Series once the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires, most likely through an owner’s lockout of the players that will last for months. Spring training will be affected and the likelihood that games will be missed next year is very real.

Owners want a salary cap. The MLB Player’s Union is dead set against it.

It is the Kashmir issue of MLB’s labor battle. It is the Taiwan. It is the Jerusalem. It is seemingly the one topic on which there can be no compromise.

Owners point to a vast disparity in payroll for the teams at the top to the ones at the bottom. According to Fangraphs, the projected payroll for baseball’s top-spending team, the Los Angeles Dodgers, is $407 million, with a luxury tax payroll of $417 million. The Mets’ $359 million payroll is next, followed by the Yankees’ $310 million and the Phillies’ $290 million.

The Dodgers’ payroll alone is more than the combined payrolls of the Marlins, Guardians, Rays and White Sox. The payrolls of the Dodgers, Mets and Yankees ($1.07 billion) is more than the four teams already mentioned, plus the A’s, Cardinals, Nationals, Pirates, Twins and Rockies ($967 million).

Not only that, but roughly $1.05 billion in deferred salary will be paid to eight players between 2028-46 (ESPN). The Dodgers have stretched the limits on how much a franchise can spend on its players, but all of it is allowed within the rules of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Baseball is pointing to the Dodgers and their wild spending as the problem and the dire need for new rules to be instituted in the next CBA to squelch it.

All of which makes the developments this week regarding the business practices of Dodgers owner Mark Walter very interesting.

Dual investigations by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York are seeking to determine the details of financial dealings of Walter and two insurance companies he owns — Delaware Life Insurance Company and its affiliate Clear Spring Life and Annuity.

Regulatory filings released on Tuesday show Walter’s insurance companies shuffled billions of dollars in investments to businesses owned by Walter and other business partners. The filings also show a loan tied to the Dodgers has been almost entirely paid off.

Insurance companies like Delaware Life collect insurance premiums from ordinary people like you and me. Those premiums add up, and are then invested by the insurance company owners, like Walter, into other companies. Federal guidelines stipulate how much of an insurance company’s profits can be invested into other companies owned by the same person, in this case, Mark Walter. The allegations indicate Walter invested far more of those insurance company profits into other businesses he owns than is allowed, and that he mis-identified those loans/payments as being to outside entities.

It’s unclear how much of this, if any, is wrapped up in the Dodgers, and thus far, no charges have been brought against Walter. There is also no proof that the Dodgers’ sky-high payroll and hundreds of millions of dollars in deferred contracts is because Walters has funded his team’s payroll or TV cable deal with money from his insurance companies. The investigations will undoubtedly uncover where Walter’s profits went and how they were utilized.

But much of MLB’s incessant push for a salary cap is based on the notion that the Dodgers’ ability to outspend teams at the bottom of the income pool is unfair. That has been a winning argument in terms of public opinion. In March, The Athletic conducted a survey asking whether respondents were in favor of a salary cap system with a cap and floor. Nearly 7 in 10 (68%) said “yes.” Only a quarter (27%) said no.

That same survey found 67% said their fandom would be “significantly” (20%) or “somewhat” (47%) impacted by a potential lockout or strike, but one-third (33%) said they would be impacted “not at all.”

The argument that the Dodgers are destroying baseball is resonating with the fanbase, so from a public relations perspective, even the suggestion that the Dodgers’ payroll is what is due to shady or potentially illegal self-dealing undercuts MLB’s dire plea for help.

“The economics of baseball aren’t broken,” one could argue, “One of the owners was doing illegal, stuff!” will be the new mantra.

To be clear, there is no indication that Mark Walter did anything illegal or unethical with regards to his ownership of the Dodgers. The investigations are ongoing. But strictly from a public relations perspective, even the allegations are damaging because the success or failure of work stoppages in sports is oftentimes driven by fan support or opposition.

One other potential domino is whether Walter will sell the team he bought out of bankruptcy in 2012. He’s already sold his controlling interest in the Los Angeles Lakers and the Premiere League’s Chelsea franchise to raise money to pay off debts, and there is speculation the Dodgers could be next.

Could MLB really engage in a call for a salary cap and potentially blow up the economics of the game when the very franchise they’ve centered their arguments around is in the process of being sold?

The Athletic reported this week that Dodgers president and CEO Stan Kasten said the sale of the Lakers is “not related to the Dodgers and changes are not coming to the MLB organization.” Of course, things can change.

Even with the investigations looking into the Dodgers’ finances, a labor stoppage is still likely. The owners will still want a cap in the next CBA and the players will be dead set against it. But the argument MLB has been using to make their point has weakened considerably.

Dodgers welcome Pirates to Chavez Ravine

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 14: Yoshinobu Yamamoto #18 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches during the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Dodger Stadium on August 14, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images) | Getty Images

After a quick three game sweep of the Rockies in Colorado, the Dodgers are back home for a another quick three game set against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be on the mound for the Dodgers for his fourth start in what has been a phenomenal August for him – a 1.83 ERA in 19 2/3 innings, with 18 strikeouts and just six walks. He now sits at a 2.60 ERA, fifth lowest ERA in the National League.

Yamamoto is coming off a wobbly start against the Milwaukee Brewers, in which his first inning went 26 pitches with two walks, but he turned it around, allowing just one run over six innings and nine strikeouts. He told reporters afterwards that he had tried to be too fine in the first inning, but that he was able to reorganize his thoughts and dominate from then on.

While the Pirates are fourth in the NL Central and sit three games below .500, they still are not an easy lineup to face. They have the most hits and third most runs in all of MLB.

Yamamoto has faced the Bucs once before in his career in April of 2025 where he was outdueled by Paul Skenes and was given no run support and took the 3-0 loss.

On the other side of the ship the Pirates will send Bubba Chandler to the mound. The 23-year-old righty is 6-8 on the season with a 4.23 ERA.

One particular matchup to watch is Chandler vs Max Muncy. Chandler throws his fastball 51.1% of the time, and Muncy loves that particular pitch from righties. Muncy has three homers in his last seven games, and seven of his homers this season are on that righty fastball.

Chandler as a whole has great stuff, but can lose his command.

Oneil Cruz has just rejoined the team after having been out since the beginning of June with a left hand fracture. Before his injury, he was just six home runs shy of setting a new career high in homers in half the number of games.

Friday game info

Radio: AM 570 (English), KTNQ 1020 AM (Spanish)

Teams: Dodgers vs. Pirates

Ballpark: Dodger Stadium

Start time: 7:10 p.m.

TV: SportsNet LA

Game Discussion: Milwaukee Brewers (79-49) vs Atlanta Braves (75-53)

Milwaukee Brewers
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 15: Jacob Misiorowski #32 of the Milwaukee Brewers pitches against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the second inning at Dodger Stadium on August 15, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Last year, there was a highly anticipated pitching matchup between Jacob Misiorowski and Paul Skenes. The matchup was hyped for days and it was a sellout game at American Family Field. This afternoon, we will have a similar matchup. Jacob Misiorowski is on the mound again, facing off against another Cy Young winner, this time in Atlanta Braves ace Chris Sale.

There will be strikeouts, there will be high velocity, there will likely not be a lot of runs scored. Misiorowski has a 1.75 ERA on the season while Sale is sitting at a 2.16 ERA.

The Brewers were able to score plenty of runs during their series against the Seattle Mariners on this homestand. It will not be so easy this afternoon, even though the Mariners rotation has put up some very good numbers this year.

Granted, every time you see a matchup of aces and you think runs will be scarce, that game somehow has a way of turning into a 10-8 slugfest. Because that’s baseball.

The Brewers offense will be attempting to provide that level of support to Misiorowski. Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, and William Contreras form the top of the lineup that will face Sale. Andrew Vaughn, Jake Bauers, and Gary Sanchez make up the middle of the order with Sanchez serving as the DH. Joey Ortiz, Cooper Pratt, and Luis Lara round out the bottom of the lineup.

The order is missing Christian Yelich and Garrett Mitchell. With Sale being a tough left-handed pitcher, it makes sense as to why Pat Murphy would sit those two left-handed bats.

The Braves lineup will feature a lot of their big names as well. Ronald Acuna, Rookie of the Year winner Drake Baldwin, and Matt Olson form the top of the Braves lineup. Michael Harris II, Ozzie Albies, and old friend Mauricio Dubon make up the middle of the order. Then Dominic Smith, Austin Riley, and Mike Yastrzemski round out the bottom three.

Little League World Series no-hitter: Iowa, Cooper Thissen shut down California

The 2026 Little League World Series is underway again on Friday, and the day was highlighted by an electrifying performance from Cooper Thissen, who dominated both on the mound and at the plate for Davenport Northwest.

Thissen, the left-handed ace representing the Midwest Region, struck out 15 batters and allowed no hits or runs during his 85-pitch limit.

His performance on the mound helped Davenport Northwest maintain control through the game. Once he reached his pitch count, Thissen transitioned to first base for the remainder of the game. Little League regulations allow a maximum of 85 pitches per day per pitcher, a safeguard designed to protect players.

Making his presence felt at the plate as well, Thissen led off the bottom of the first inning with a powerful home run to center field, giving the Midwest Region an early lead that it held for the entire game.

Thanks to Thissen’s overall performance, the Midwest Region edged the West Region 1-0.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Little League World Series no-hitter: Iowa, Cooper Thissen shut down California

The Short Porch is taking a closer look at Seiya Suzuki

It’s been a baseball season to remember in Chicago. The Cubs and White Sox are both playing excellent baseball and if the playoffs started tomorrow they’d both be in the field. Pete Crow-Armstrong is putting together a season for the ages on the corner of Clark and Addison. The ten-year anniversary of the Cubs 2016 World Series victory has kept great vibes and fan favorites front and center for most of the season. Amid all of these storylines it’s easy to miss that Seiya Suzuki is once again putting together a quality season for the Chicago Cubs as we head into the final 34 games of the season. Here’s his homer on Monday off Luis Castillo [VIDEO].

The thing is, we’ve seen this season from Seiya Suzuki before. All he’s done since he joined the Cubs is post above average season after above average season. Take a look at this leaderboard, showing the top 25 hitters in baseball over the last five seasons by wRC+:

NameTeamGPAHRRRBISBBB%K%ISOBABIPAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAwRC+WAR
Aaron JudgeNYY63227982275145024617.80%25.30%.359.345.305.433.664.451.46419939.4
Yordan AlvarezHOU5702444145361395913.54%17.23%.276.317.304.405.580.412.43717222.0
Shohei Ohtani– – –731326321755450211712.99%23.84%.309.329.292.387.600.410.41916630.7
Juan Soto– – –71631591674844377018.55%16.75%.251.278.270.407.520.396.42615926.8
Freddie FreemanLAD73832351114724425710.79%16.63%.199.345.309.389.508.383.38214725.4
Ronald Acuña Jr.ATL49822369437524814312.12%19.81%.201.330.288.383.489.377.40214016.6
Yandy DíazTBR69129728937335599.96%14.10%.161.330.302.378.463.366.36014016.6
Mike TroutLAA46920301143002472114.14%28.23%.251.306.252.366.503.371.38314014.5
Bryce HarperPHI63027291213843714813.30%21.14%.227.317.277.375.504.375.37813917.4
Corey SeagerTEX56324631303463341010.23%18.07%.234.285.272.350.505.362.38613720.7
Willson Contreras– – –5732382102302313229.99%24.10%.214.314.262.363.475.365.36913615.6
Matt OlsonATL7763385182478512611.73%24.34%.251.299.261.351.511.367.36113521.1
Kyle SchwarberPHI74933502245025082815.10%29.64%.281.260.229.351.510.368.37913414.1
Kyle Tucker– – –64127121153833969812.57%15.52%.212.277.265.359.477.359.36913318.8
Pete Alonso– – –7663302187443545189.87%22.62%.247.275.254.341.501.358.36913315.9
Mookie BettsLAD65128931294623905110.34%13.14%.216.276.274.352.490.362.35813223.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR74632511184234242810.00%14.49%.180.303.285.361.465.355.37513214.5
Jose AltuveHOU6412782104409287688.88%17.04%.182.313.283.353.465.354.31813117.9
Rafael Devers– – –72231381484274491210.99%22.94%.230.309.267.352.497.361.36113117.8
José RamírezCLE724314113245144816210.06%11.52%.216.274.276.350.492.353.34213025.6
Brent Rooker– – –5082078109256301239.38%27.91%.233.315.259.335.492.353.3521309.1
Byron BuxtonMIN4932046123329278537.72%27.66%.269.287.249.318.517.354.34612915.3
Bobby Witt Jr.KCR73632081214744211817.08%17.80%.209.320.289.343.498.357.36812932.8
Seiya SuzukiCHC64227481093493703810.66%25.04%.206.328.269.349.474.353.34612814.5
Ketel MarteARI66728661224073682810.33%16.64%.215.285.268.349.483.356.35812719.1
Francisco LindorNYM70431231334704141108.97%18.80%.203.288.264.340.467.348.35112627.4
Julio RodríguezSEA70731051314263941326.73%23.67%.190.321.271.329.460.340.34612623.5
Corbin CarrollARI612262410043530514010.25%21.19%.234.294.256.342.490.355.34512621.7
Gunnar HendersonBAL6242699106391311729.82%22.86%.206.306.259.338.466.346.34612520.9
Paul Goldschmidt– – –6942856108378349359.63%22.90%.188.326.272.346.460.348.34612513.6
Select offensive stats. Minimum 2000 PA,

Seiya Suzuki has quietly and steadily been a top 30 hitter over the last five seasons. Slightly better at creating runs than Francisco Lindor, Julio Rodríguez and Corbin Carroll. Just a smidge below Bobby Witt Jr. and Byron Buxton. This is not just excellent company, it’s elite. He’s basically been 28% better than league average at creating runs.

Suzuki’s performance during his time on the Cubs is even more impressive when you look at it in a team context. I ran the best single seasons since 2022 for the Cubs and sorted the table by wRC+. Only two players appear on this list more than once. Four of Seiya’s five seasons on the North Side of Chicago are on this list:

SeasonNameGPAHRRRBISBBB%K%ISOBABIPAVGOBPSLGwOBAxwOBAwRC+WAR
2026Pete Crow-Armstrong1285703190793111.93%27.02%.271.344.279.378.550.396.3591548.3
2025Michael Busch15559234789049.46%23.48%.261.292.261.343.523.369.3781403.5
2024Seiya Suzuki1325852174731610.77%27.35%.199.370.283.366.482.365.3481373.5
2025Kyle Tucker1365972291732514.57%14.74%.198.282.266.377.464.363.3721364.5
2023Cody Bellinger130556269597207.19%15.65%.218.319.307.356.525.370.3281354.4
2026Seiya Suzuki110483227174212.01%25.67%.215.327.268.360.483.365.3361333.4
2023Seiya Suzuki138583207574610.12%22.30%.200.341.285.357.485.358.3571273.1
2025Seiya Suzuki1516513275103510.91%25.19%.233.282.245.326.478.343.3521232.6
2022Ian Happ15864117727299.05%23.24%.169.336.271.342.440.339.3131223.7
2024Ian Happ1536572589861312.18%25.57%.199.299.243.341.441.341.3471213.6
Sorted by wRC+

Having a hitter of Seiya’s caliber in the lineup changes the outcome of games, as we saw this week. There were a lot of questions about why the White Sox pitched to Pete Crow-Armstrong in the bottom of the 10th inning during the first game of the Crosstown Classic. Here’s what Cubs manager Craig Counsell and White Sox manager Will Venable said about that to The Athletic:

On Monday, his fourth hit of the night was a walk-off two-run shot in the bottom of the 10th inning to beat the White Sox. (He also homered in the first inning.)

In the aftermath, the conversation in the city and the ballpark Tuesday was whether White Sox manager Will Venable should’ve had left-hander Hagen Smith intentionally walk the lefty-hitting Crow-Armstrong … to face right-handed Seiya Suzuki, who is having a fantastic season in his own right. Just not as fantastic as Crow-Armstrong.

Counsell defended Venable — “the league has shown that they’re afraid of Seiya versus left-handed pitching” — and basically admitted that the persistent lineup-construction questions had some validity.

“That’s why they’re hitting next to each other because you try to make the manager’s decisions really hard,” he said of Crow-Armstrong and Suzuki batting 1-2 in the order. “That’s kind of the point.”

“PCA is a really special player,” Venable said, “And yeah, he’s scary. But so is Suzuki, you know what I mean? He is, too, and again, factoring all those things in with information, the gut, whatever you want to say, that was the decision that I thought was best.”

PCA sees the opportunities he does, at least in part, because he’s got Seiya Suzuki hitting behind him.

Seiya is eight long balls shy of his second 30-home run season since he came over from Japan. That may be a stretch. None of FanGraphs projection systems see him hitting more than five or six home runs through the rest of the season. But at the end of the day, whether he has 27 home runs or 30 long balls, we’ll all happily take his .268/.360/.483 slashline with 22 home runs through the first 128 games of the season. Here’s hoping he keeps it up into September and October.

Mets vs. White Sox prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for August 21

The New York Mets (58-70) are in the Windy City to open a weekend series against the Chicago White Sox (66-61) tonight. The Sox continue to control the AL Central leading the second-place Twins by 3.5 games while the Mets despite having played better since the Trade Deadline including four of the last five continue to hold down last place in the NL East.

 

A few numbers help explain why these teams have such vastly different records but none moreso than runs scored. The Sox have outscored the Mets 605-531.

 

The Mets will look Sean Manaea (4-5, 4.22 ERA) to slow down the ChiSox offense tonight. The veteran has been solid over his last five starts allowing ten runs over 31.1 innings. He averages about one strikeout per inning, but his numbers vary game-to-game. Sean Burke (7-6, 3.15 ERA) gets the ball for Chicago. The righthander saw his streak of 10 starts in which he allowed two or fewer earned runs snapped this past Sunday when he allowed four earned runs over 4.1 innings in Motown against the Tigers.

 

Lets dive into today’s matchup and find a sweat or two.

 

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

 

Follow Rotoworld Player News for the latest fantasy and betting player news and analysis all season long.

 

Game Details and How to Watch: Mets vs. White Sox

 

  • Date: Friday, August 21, 2026
  • Time: 8:10PM EST
  • Site: Rate Field
  • City: Chicago, IL
  • Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, WB New York, CSN

 

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The Latest Odds: Mets vs. White Sox – August 21

The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: New York Mets (+131), Chicago White Sox (-140) 
  • Spread: Mets +1.5 (+175), White Sox -1.5 (+144)
  • Total: 8.0 runs

 

Starting Pitchers and their Stats: Mets vs. White Sox for August 21

  • Mets: Sean Manaea
    Season Totals: 111.0 IP, 4-5, 4.22 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 113K, 37 BB
  • White Sox: Sean Burke
    Season Totals: 140.0 IP, 7-6, 3.15 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 154K, 42 BB

Who’s Hot? Who’s Not! Mets vs. White Sox

  • Bo Bichette is 2-3 in his career against Sean Burke
  • In his last 5 starts starting with his most recent, Sean Burke has struck out 2, 8, 4, 10, and 10 hitters
  • Randal Grichuk is 6-19 including 2 HRs in his career against Sean Manaea
  • Carson Benge is hitting .311 (19-61) in August
  • A.J. Ewing is 2-21 over his last 6 games
  • Sam Antonacci is 1-17 over his last 5 games
  • Miguel Vargas had his 6-game hitting streak (10-24) snapped yesterday
  • Munetaka Murakami has struck out 28 times in 68 ABs in August

 

Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!

 

Top Betting Trends & Insights: Mets vs. White Sox

 

  • The White Sox are an MLB-best 76-51 on the Run Line this season
  • The Mets are 59-69 on the Run Line this season
  • The OVER has cashed 56 times in games involving the Mets this season (56-62-10)
  • The OVER has cashed an MLB-best 71 times in games involving the White Sox this season (71-54-2)

 

Expert picks & predictions: Mets vs. White Sox for August 21

 

Rotoworld Bet Best Bet

 
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

 

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

 

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for tonight’s game between the Mets and the White Sox:

  • Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
  • Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the White Sox on the Run Line.
  • Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total OVER 8.0.

 

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Rays Reacts Results: Biggest concern?

Aug 18, 2026; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays catcher Liam Hicks (34) looks on against the Toronto Blue Jays in the eighth inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Welcome back to Rays Reacts, which was a little light in the vote tally this time around! I know it’s summer, but I do encourage all to vote. We have them cross-posted to The Feed on the front page now, so please do not hesitate to make your way over an vote.

Last week we asked about the rotation confidence, so this week I took a step farther back and asked about your biggest worry generally. The answer was timely!

The Rays did not dominate the homestand this time around, losing by four+ runs in two of three to Balitmore, and putting up only two runs on Sunday on their way to a 2-5 W-L over seven games. But the Rays were battling, splitting the four games decided by one run.

If you think that means the Rays have a bad offense, the data hasn’t really backed it up. Since August 1 the Rays have a third best offense in baseball with a 114 wRC+, with an MLB best .282 AVG, fourth best .338 OBP, and sixth best .432 SLG, while also leading MLB with 24 steals, second overall in runs scored (97), and despite the reputation for small ball, a ninth highest tally of 23 HR. You can imagine all of those numbers improve if you make that ranking AL-only.

Given that the Rays are heating up at the plate, its reasonable to be concerned the team might be peaking too early and cool down in September, but thus far all signs point to a Rays offense that is clicking — particularly after the added protection of Liam Hicks.

If you enjoy staying dialed into the offense, you can consider some prop bets regarding the Rays offense at FanDuel, who sponsored this post.

Go Rays!

Tigers series preview: It doesn’t take much to be in the Wild Card race

DETROIT, MI - AUGUST 11: Max Clark #15 of the Detroit Tigers celebrates with teammates in the dugout after scoring a run in the fifth inning during the game between the Cleveland Guardians and the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Izzy Rincon/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

The Tigers are five games under .500 and traded their two-time Cy Young winner, Tarik Skubal, to the Dodgers at the trade deadline. And yet, they are just 1.5 games back of a Wild Card spot in what has become a race for mediocrity. The team has lost six of their last eight, and have a tough six-game homestand against the Rays and Dodgers following their weekend at Kauffman Stadium.

Detroit Tigers (61-66) vs. Kansas City Royals (55-74) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Tigers: 4.54 runs scored/game (12th in MLB), 3.90 runs allowed/game (6th)

Royals: 4.19 runs scored/game (22nd), 4.97 runs allowed/game (27th)

Who’s hot:

  • Hao-Yu Lee has turned it on in his rookie seasons, hitting .338/.390/.500 over his last 29 games.
  • Michael Massey is hitting .357/.373/.589 with three home runs in 16 games this month.

Who’s not

  • Dillon Dingler homered in three straight games earlier this month, but has hit 3-for-48 (.063) in 12 games since then.
  • Isaac Collins is hitting .189/.271/.305 in 30 games since the All-Star break.

Interesting matchups:

  • Bobby Witt Jr. has hit just .130 (3-for-23) with five strikeouts in his career against Framber Valdez
  • Gleyber Torres is hitting just 3-for-28 (.107) in his career against Michael Wacha.
  • Troy Melton has allowed two or fewer runs in 13 of his 14 starts and he has the lowest ERA in baseball for anyone with 80+ innings pitched.
  • Noah Cameron has allowed five runs in 37.2 innings in his last five starts, a 1.19 ERA over that time.
  • Drew Anderson has given up four runs in 12.2 innings (2.84 ERA) in three starts since joining the rotation, but has yet to go more than five innings.
  • Michael Wacha is on pace to become the first Royals pitcher to lead the American League in innings pitched since James Shields in 2013.
  • Framber Valdez has a career 2.51 ERA in 28.2 innings at Kauffman Stadium, but he is just 2-3 against the Royals in 11 career games.
  • Lefties are hitting just .156/.200/.222 against Daniel Lynch IV this season.

The Tigers have 28 blown saves, second-most in baseball. Kenley Jansen blew a lead in his last outing against the Pirates, but he did not allow a run in any of his nine outings in July. Overall he has 16 saves in 21 opportunities. Kyle Finnegan has the tenth-highest FIP of any qualified reliever.

The Royals have dropped six of ten to the Tigers this year, although they took two out of three from them at home back in early May. At 8.5 games out of the Wild Card race, the Royals are too far away to realistically get back in it. But they can certainly play a spoiler to what has been an underwhelming Tigers squad.

Tyler Tolbert should be playing every day

Aug 18, 2026; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Tyler Tolbert (2) hits a game-tying RBI single during the ninth inning against the Athletics at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Kansas City Royals have no shot at making the playoffs this year and no shot at a winning record. They are playing out the string, not quite mathematically eliminated but counting down the days until they are—recent winning streak notwithstanding. This is not ideal. Ideally, we’d be freaking out about every game because the Royals are in the thick of the playoff race and every game matters to the standings.

But there are benefits the games not mattering whatsoever to the standings. Teams that are in this position have a superpower: they can just try stuff. When teams are really bad, you can risk significantly more downside, which incentivizes playing high-risk, high-reward players over low-risk, low-reward ones.

This is precisely why the Royals should be putting Tyler Tolbert in the lineup every day.

Now, that sounds a little crazy on the surface, I know. The Royals drafted Tolbert out of the University of Alabama in the 13th round of the 2019 MLB Draft. It is, of course, an honor to be drafted at all and a testament to one’s talents. But also, like, every team in the league declined to pick him up a dozen times before Kansas City selected him because Tolbert’s tools weren’t as loud or as refined as the competition. Even now, the 5’ 10” Tolbert isn’t exactly a physically imposing force or the biggest threat at the plate.

Except…Tolbert is making it work.

Beginning the year, Tolbert’s use case on the roster was a sort of Terrance Gore pinch runner specialist. Tolbert has always been a great swiper of bags; he stole 55 bases in 2021, 60 in 2022, 50 in 2023, and 48 in 2024 as he slowly climbed the ladder. Tolbert then stole 21 bases in 23 tries last year in his first year in the big leagues.

But it has been Tolbert’s bat that has been intriguing. Yes, he’s run a sub-.150 isolated slugging percentage—and sometimes much lower than that—pretty much every year since getting drafted. Tolbert has countered that with a solid contact rate and an ability to draw a walk, and it’s translated to the big leagues in his small sample size 168 plate appearances.

So, why should the Royals play Tolbert? That’s easy: Tolbert has untapped potential that simply isn’t in his direct competitors, aka John Rave, Michael Massey, Kyle Isbel, and Nick Loftin. With the possible exception of Rave, who all of a sudden is a huge bat speed and barrel rate guy, we know who those guys are: they are decent players without standout tools who are gonna give you 0.5 to 1.5 Wins Above Replacement over the course of a year. That’s not bad! We’ve all seen the Royals trot out way worse guys.

Tolbert, however, does have that standout tool. He’s in the 93rd percentile in sprint speed, which allows him to make plays that the others just can’t—both on the bases and in the field. And since Tolbert has also played all around the diamond, he’s the rare sort of utility player who can handle center field and shortstop. Finally, although it’s a small sample size, Tolbert leads all of Rave, Massey, Isbel, and Loftin with a .313 expected weighted on base average. That’s lower than his luck-fueled current slash line, but it also means that there’s some fire behind the smoke.

There are downsides to Tolbert, too. Anybody who’s watched the Royals this year has seen Tolbert get picked off, make mental mistakes, and generally not do the small things that you’d expect a player like him to do. And there’s the fact that it is still unlikely Tolbert can hit enough to stick as a regular because of the lack of power, which will probably suppress his ability to draw walks.

Remember, though: the risk of downsides is something the Royals can live with when other contending teams can’t. And trying to determine if they can get a cost-controlled regular center fielder is well worth the effort and the risk.

Colorado Rockies 2026 walk-up songs 2.0

SAN FRANCISCO, CA - AUGUST 14: Zac Veen #13 of the Colorado Rockies celebrates in the dugout after hitting a two-run home run in the sixth inning during the game between the Colorado Rockies and the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on Friday, August 14, 2026 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Bryan Kennedy/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

Back in early April, I provided a list of all the Colorado Rockies walk-up songs. Since then, however, there have been many changes, so an update seemed in order.

So here’s what (most of) the boys at 20th and Blake are jamming to these days.

Zach Agnos — Colt Ford featuring JJ Lawhorn’s “Answer to No One” (from the beginning)

Jordan Beck — A$AP Rocky’s “Everyday” (:16-:32)

Brennan Bernadino — Roughnexk’s “Run Dem Mouth” (:05)

Cole Carrigg — John Summit & Absolutely’’s “Don’t Believe It” (from the beginning)

Willi Castro — Chimbala’s “Che Che” (:11)

Jeff Criswell — Mac Miller’s “BlueWorld” (from the beginning)

Chase Dollander — Kai Uriah’s “Bound 2 Be” (from the beginning)

Ryan Feltner — Collective Soul’s “Where the River Flows” (from the beginning)

Kyle Freeland — Machine Gun Kelly’s “Raise the Flag” (from the beginning)

Braxton Fulford — Kanye’s “Follow God” (from the beginning)

Hunter Goodman — Cody Johnson’s “Til You Can’t” (0:59)

Tanner Gordon — T.I’s “Whatever You Like” (from the beginning)

Jimmy Herget — Beastie Boys’ “Sabatoge” (from the beginning)

Welinton Herrera — Yo Soy Papa’s “Lapiz” (4:06)

Jaden Hill — YoungBoy Never Broke Again’s “Bruce Wayne” (Best Clean Version from YouTube) (1:02)

Troy Johnston — Lou Bega’s “Mambo No. 5” (0:03)

Kyle Karros — Toro & Moi’s “The Difference Flume” (0:36)

Jake McCarthy — Led Zeppelin’s “Stairway to Heaven” (6:40)

Juan Mejia — El Alfa x Farruko’s “Scarface” (from the beginning)

Mickey Moniak — Eddy Grant’s “Electric Avenue” (from the beginning)

Connor Norby — Kid Ink’s “Sunset” (chorus)

José Quintana — La Moral’s “Criss 7 Ronny, lil Silvo” (from the beginning)

T.J. Rumfield — Nitty Gritty Dirt Band’s “Fishin’ in the Dark” (0:41)

TJ Shook — AC/DC’s “You Shook Me All Night Long” (from the beginning)

Tomoyuki Sugano — HUNTR/X’s “Golden” (0:55)

Brett Sullivan — Big X Tha Plug’s “Holy Ground” (0:26)

Sterlin Thompson’s — Alice in Chains’ “Would” (0:47)

Keegan Thompson’s — Kayne’s “Waves” (from the beginning)

Ezequiel Tovar — Corridos del Rey’s “Ayer Hable Con Dios” (0:15)

Zac Veen — Travis Scott ft. Playboy Carti’s “FE!N” (:15)

Let us know your favorites (or musical suggestions!) in the comments.


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Rafael Devers returns to Fenway Park with San Francisco Giants

SAN FRANCISCO, CA - AUGUST 27: San Francisco Giants mascot Lou Seal waves a flag to celebrate a win against the Chicago Cubs in a MLB game on August 27, 2025 at Oracle Park in San Francisco, CA. (Photo by Matthew Huang/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The time has come. Rafael Devers is back in Boston. As a member of the San Francisco Giants. It will be his second time facing the Sox since the trade in 2025. The first series was in San Francisco and the second is here in his old home.

It’s been…a bit of a time since the trade. The Giants got a slugging first baseman and the Red Sox got a lot of freedom.

Logan Webb hasn’t been himself this year with a number of blowups. He started the season allowing 7 runs (6 earned) against he Yankees. Gave up 6 to the Padres in June, 7 to the Rockies in July, and 5 to the Blue Jays. But he’s been better in August. Over three starts he’s allowed just two runs in 20 innings. That’s 6.0 shutout innings and two 8.0, 1-run outings. Webb’s strikeouts are down from 26.2% in 2025 to 19.6% in 2026, although he’s got 17 in his last 20 innings. Sonny Gray, the 15 game winner, will open the series. He’s on another roll this season. Over his last three starts and he’s at 19 innings with two runs allowed. As hot as Webb.

Blade Tidwell came over to the Giants at the deadline in 2025 for Tyler Rogers, the reliever now with the Blue Jays. He’s made 13 starts for San Francisco this season. Over 27 innings he has 20 strikeouts and 10 walks. Lst time out was a 4.1 inning,, 6-run outing against the Rockies. He’s facing Patrick Sandoval who is coming off a disaster of an outing. His last time out he lasted just 4.0 innings and he allowed 7 runs. The Pirates were all over his offerings. Did the Sandoval magic run out? At least with the off-day on Thursday the bullpen is rested.

The Giants don’t have a starter listed for Sunday. Carson Whisenhunt took a turn in the rotation after Tidwell the last time out and allowed 7 runs (6 earned) in 4.0 innings. Jake Bennett looked less like himself the last two times out. Against the Pirates he just didn’t have his normal stuff. He’s piling up innings and has entered some uncharted territory in that regard. The off-day got him a extra day of rest. Hopefully that will help him get back on track in what has been a great rookie year.

Rafael Devers has 25 home runs and is hitting .244/.317/.471. As a member of the Red Sox he slashed .279/.349/.510 over parts of 9 seasons.

Willy Adames has hit 19 homers. He wasn’t moved at the deadline despite rumors.

Matt Chapman, one of the other big contracts the Giants were looking to move remains on the IL.

Watch out, two games are on national TV this weekend. Not much NESN fun.

Probable Pitching Matchups

Friday, August 21: Logan Webb (3.50 ERA / 3.17 FIP) vs. Sonny Gray (2.66 ERA / 3.48 FIP)

Saturday, August 22: Blade Tidwell (4.33 ERA / 3.79 FIP) vs. Patrick Sandoval (4.76 ERA / 3.67 FIP)

Sunday, August 23: TBD (— ERA / — FIP) vs. Jake Bennett (3.46 ERA / 2.99 FIP)

When/Where to Watch

Friday, August 21: 7:10 PM ET on NESN

Saturday, August 22: 7:15 PM ET on FOX

Sunday, August 23: 3:15 PM ET on NBC/Peacock

Series Preview: Six is a serious number in Cardinals/Phillies rematch

In the year of the rebuild, the St. Louis Cardinals remain in playoff contention. They are making us start to believe in ending a playoff drought. With the Cardinals just 2.5 games out of a postseason spot, this season may end up with people asking more “what ifs” than expected.

This October dream stays alive with St. Louis winning five straight series and have another opportunity to make things interesting this weekend. Not even two weeks after their last matchup, the Cardinals can continue their run up the standings with a three-game series against the Phillies. Philadelphia currently holds the second Wild Card spot and are 4.5 games up on the Redbirds. A sixth straight series win paired with losses by the Diamondbacks and Padres would likely put St. Louis back in the final playoff spot. On August 21, 2026.

Cardinals fans can start scoreboard watching after continued hot stretch

The first “what if” looks at how the Cardinals could have actually swept all five games and to some, the fact they ended up with just a series win is a bummer. The bullpen, be it usage or makeup, is another “what if” for the season as the group’s 22 blown saves are second most in the majors (Colorado is first with a whopping 32). Alas, the fact remains that the Cardinals have the potential to make the postseason. On August 21, 2026.

This opportunity comes in Philadelphia with two of the three Phillies starters repeating from last meeting. The Cardinals have used any chance to manipulate the rotation to protect the arms from either injury, innings limits, or exposure to tough opponents. That strategy remains in the three-game weekend set.

*Projected starters based on FanGraphs Roster Resource*

GAME ONE: Hunter Dobbins vs. Jesus Luzardo
GAME TWO: Michael McGreevy vs. Andrew Painter
GAME THREE: Kyle Leahy vs. Cristopher Sanchez

To open up yet another big series, the Cardinals are going to roll with Hunter Dobbins as he continues his tryout for next season’s rotation. He has been exactly what was expected in his stints with the big league team and can be at least penciled into the 2027 staff. Following Dobbins is Michael McGreevy who is looking to extend his streak of allowing three runs or less to five straight starts. In the finale, Kyle Leahy will attempt to keep trimming his ERA while the front office has an eye on his innings pitched this season. After 88 frames last year, Leahy has already surpassed 120 innings and has been limited to five innings in each of his last three starts.

The only different starter the Cardinals will face this series is lefty Jesus Luzardo, who has been phenomenal since the All-Star break. On the season, he is 11-5 but Luzardo is 3-1 with a 2.48 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and more than a strikeout per inning. Jordan Walker has seen the Phillies starter the most, but none of the five Cardinals with experience hitting against Luzardo have had much success.

The other two Phillies starters are hoping for a repeat performance from the last series. Andrew Painter doubled his season win total and put together one of his best outings against St. Louis on August 10. In his follow up performance, Painter gave up five runs on six hits (two homers) in five innings. Closing the series off is All-Star lefty Cristopher Sanchez, who threw six shutout innings against the Cardinals but was saddled with a no-decision in a pitcher’s duel against Andre Pallante. Sanchez got a win in his most recent start, throwing six innings of one-run ball against the Marlins.

An off day is finally coming on Monday once the Cardinals finish their run of 20 straight games on Sunday. The schedule gets a little easier on Tuesday with the Orioles and Pirates coming to Busch to finish the month.

Astros’ Willingness to Let Stars Walk Continues to Look Like the Right Approach

DENVER, CO - AUGUST 19: Kyle Tucker #23 of the Los Angeles Dodgers walks in the dugout in the second inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on August 19, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images) | Getty Images

As we sit back and watch the latter part of this Astros season unfold, there are plenty of things to debate about the direction of the organization.

You can criticize Jim Crane for some of the decisions he has made in recent years. You can question Dana Brown and some of his personnel moves. You can point to mistakes in free agency, trades that haven’t worked out, or decisions that have contributed to the Astros finding themselves fighting their way back into contention.

But there is one area where this organization deserves a tremendous amount of credit: knowing when to say no.

More specifically, knowing when not to hand out massive, long-term contracts to players approaching or entering free agency.

For years, Astros fans have watched some of their favorite players leave Houston because Crane and the organization weren’t willing to match the enormous contracts being offered elsewhere. At the time, those decisions were often unpopular. Fans become attached to players. They remember the home runs, playoff performances and championships and understandably want to keep the band together.

But baseball can’t be run on emotion.

And once again, Kyle Tucker appears to be providing another example of why.

Watching Tucker struggle mightily in a Dodgers uniform is difficult for some Astros fans because he was one of their own. He developed in the organization, became an All-Star-caliber player and was an important part of Houston’s success.

But he also wanted to be paid like a superstar.

He got his money, a boatload of it. And once you sign that type of contract, the expectations change. You’re no longer simply a really good player who came through the Astros’ system. You’re being paid to be one of the faces of a franchise and one of the best players in baseball.

That means you have to perform like it.

Right now, Tucker is falling well short of those expectations.

Even during his best seasons in Houston, I remained steadfast in my belief that Tucker was never going to be the type of superstar player worthy of one of baseball’s biggest contracts. He was an excellent player. He could be an outstanding complementary piece on a championship team and perform at a very high level.

But there’s a difference between being a great player and being the player an organization builds around while paying him superstar money.

I never saw Tucker as the latter.

He never appeared to embrace the responsibility or personality that comes with being the highest-paid, and presumably best player on a team. That’s not necessarily a criticism of who he is as a person or teammate. It’s simply part of the equation when you’re deciding whether to commit hundreds of millions of dollars to a player for the better part of a decade.

The Astros decided he wasn’t worth that commitment.

We’ve seen this movie before.

George Springer left. Gerrit Cole left. Justin Verlander eventually left. Framber Valdez left. Tucker left via trade because they knew they weren’t going to pay him. There have been others, and while every situation was different, the philosophy behind many of those decisions has remained remarkably consistent.

Houston has generally refused to allow sentimentality or fan pressure to dictate massive long-term contracts.

More often than not, history has vindicated that approach.

That’s why I don’t understand the people who feel sorry for Tucker.

He made his choice. The Dodgers made theirs. Tucker received the financial security and enormous contract he wanted, and with that comes the responsibility of performing at the level that contract demands.

That’s professional sports.

And I’m certainly not shedding any tears for the Dodgers.

For years, Los Angeles has operated with financial advantages almost no other organization could match, aggressively spending while using deferred money to assemble a roster filled with some of the most expensive players in baseball.

Eventually, those bills come due.

Now the Dodgers are dealing with the long-term consequences of enormous contractual commitments, including deferred money that will remain on the books for years to come.

There’s a certain irony to it.

While other organizations, including Houston,have been criticized for refusing to hand out decade-long contracts and seemingly unlimited amounts of money to keep their stars, the Dodgers have largely taken the opposite approach.

Spend the money. Keep adding stars. Worry about tomorrow when tomorrow arrives.

Well, eventually tomorrow arrives.

And that’s where Jim Crane’s philosophy deserves some appreciation.

You don’t have to agree with everything Crane has done. You don’t have to defend every decision Dana Brown and the Astros’ front office have made. There are legitimate criticisms to be made about how this organization has operated in recent seasons.

But refusing to allow emotion to dictate long-term contracts has been one of Houston’s greatest organizational strengths.

It’s incredibly difficult to watch a homegrown star leave. It’s even harder when that player is still productive and fans believe ownership should simply “pay the man.”

Sometimes the best contract in baseball is the one you don’t sign.

The Astros have understood that better than most.

Kyle Tucker may ultimately turn things around. He’s talented enough to do it, and one difficult stretch doesn’t erase everything he has accomplished.

But the larger point remains.

When you’re handing out superstar money, you need superstar production, not just this year, but for years to come.

Houston decided that wasn’t a gamble worth taking.

And as we watch another former Astro attempt to live up to the enormous contract he received somewhere else, Jim Crane’s willingness to say goodbye rather than overpay is looking pretty smart once again.

Nobody needs to feel sorry for Kyle Tucker. He got exactly what he wanted.

Nobody needs to feel sorry for the Dodgers, either. They knew exactly what they were buying.

And Astros fans shouldn’t apologize for recognizing that sometimes letting a star walk isn’t being cheap.

Sometimes it’s just good business. What do you think Astros fans? Let me know your thoughts.