Giants' Hayden Birdsong to undergo Tommy John surgery and miss entire season

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — San Francisco Giants pitcher Hayden Birdsong will undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the 2026 season.

The right-hander had felt soreness in his throwing elbow after pitching in a Cactus League game on March 10. After the Giants diagnosed Birdsong with a forearm strain and ulnar collateral ligament sprain, Birdsong met with Dr. Keith Meister.

Birdsong, 24, went 4-4 with a 4.80 ERA last season while making 21 appearances, including 10 starts. He struck out 68 batters over 65 2/3 innings.

Giants’ Tony Vitello is attacking his college-to-pro transition with high energy, help from others

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — With a black sweatshirt pulled over his head and a glove in hand, Tony Vitello blends in almost as if he’s one of the Giants players.

San Francisco’s new manager grabs a piece of gum from a dugout basket then heads out onto the grass at Scottsdale Stadium and gets to work. He lingers for a while in right field, surveying the scene, before making his way to the indoor cage. A short while later, he’s all the way back to home plate, leaning on the right side of the cage, where he fist bumps Heliot Ramos after one of the left fielder’s rounds of batting practice. Vitello moves several feet to his left and takes in more hitters’ work.

“He’s everywhere,” shortstop Willy Adames said. “He has a lot of energy. He likes to be watching everybody, making sure that everybody is working right and doing the right things. He’s just trying to push the guys to work hard and to be better and I think that’s something that’s going to help the guys a lot and I think that’s something we needed.”

All eyes are on Vitello as he takes over one of baseball’s most storied franchises without a professional baseball backstory of his own. Giants executive and former catcher Buster Posey made the unconventional hire, entrusting the top dugout step to someone with no major league experience as a player or coach.

And everybody will be paying attention for his high-profile managerial debut when the Giants host the New York Yankees in baseball’s season opener March 25.

“As ready as I’ll be if you ask me that question before the season starts,” Vitello said ahead of the club’s Cactus League opener. “I don’t think you’re ever really ready to do something until you get to do it. ... Inevitably something pops up in where you’re like, ‘I wish I could go back in time and know that.’”

An avid swimmer who aspires to one day complete the famous event from Alcatraz in San Francisco, Vitello scans his various baseball zones much like a lifeguard with eyes up, observing everything and everyone.

He also has committed to taking in the wisdom from former managers he has surrounded himself with, such as Dusty Baker and Bruce Bochy, and also new Giants infield coach Ron Washington.

“I’ve talked with those guys, they’ve been awesome,” Vitello said. “A lot of little things. When Boch says it, not only do you hear it but you hear it in that thunderous voice. I’ve taken notes from all those guys. I don’t think there’s been one drastic thing said to me, like, ‘Holy cow, reinvent the game’ or anything like that. It’s just been a lot of consistent help.”

Bouncing between fields during spring training has been one of the biggest adjustments for the 47-year-old Vitello.

When he addressed the full team on Day 1, Vitello aimed to just be himself — “hopefully it didn’t sound like a speech, more of a conversation,” he said.

Everybody realizes there will be a large learning curve, but Vitello has already made a strong impression on his players.

“Tony’s passion for baseball is something else,” outfielder Jung Hoo Lee said. “Just being around him, I feel like my passion grows more with him. It’s really nice being around Tony.”

Near the end of one spring training practice last month, Vitello squatted with hands on his thighs watching Washington work with Adames.

“That’s going to help him a lot,” Adames said of all the support. “He’s got Bochy that’s going to be around and Dusty that’s going to be around and Buster is always around. We’ve got a lot of people who have a lot of experience in baseball and have a lot of people who have a lot of experience being a manager, and I think that’s going to help him a lot.”

Ex-Padres manager Jayce Tingler is Vitello’s good friend and now bench coach, too. Vitello only announced his coaching staff at the start of spring — months after many other teams — because that’s how much thought he put into who he wanted by his side.

And because not doing everything himself has been a process. Previously, there was recruiting, planning road trips, monitoring studies and all of the other demands in the college game.

“I think get more comfortable with delegating, but about nine years ago I definitely warmed up to it with the group of people that I was around,” he said.

First-year San Diego Padres manager Craig Stammen understands the questions about inexperience and that scrutiny comes with the job.

“He’s a baseball guy, so I’m going to respect him the same way I respect somebody that played 20 years in the big leagues,” Stammen said of Vitello. “I think he’s earned the right to be a manager in the big leagues. Some people will question me if I earned the right to be a manager in the big leagues. His track record in college is very successful, so he’s going to have the opportunity to bring that track record to MLB.”

Vitello acknowledges there have been some early hurdles — and knows there will be plenty more along the way. He replaces three-time Manager of the Year Bob Melvin, a 22-year managerial veteran who was fired after two years and the Giants’ fourth straight season out of the playoffs.

“I don’t think it’s been too wild. I think everything that was a precursor to here was the key,” he said. “FanFest, just how welcoming everybody is. It might sound silly, but just interacting with the 49ers group a few different times and other people in the Bay Area, it made you feel like you were in high school instead of a freshman. I still remember freshman year in high school was kind of nerve-wracking.

“So I think there was a little bit of momentum for myself coming in. Seamless is a high standard. I think there’s been some snags, but it’s kind of been like, ‘OK, I get how this goes now.’”

Mariners 2026 Spring Breakout Preview

Feb 23, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Seattle Mariners shortstop Colt Emerson against the Los Angeles Dodgers during a spring training game at Camelback Ranch-Glendale. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The annual Spring Breakout game has arrived! A relatively new feature to the MLB spring training schedule, the spring breakout is a prospect-only bout pitting one organization’s best against another, providing fans an easy way to get familiarized with the team’s top farmhands. The Mariners have one of the more potent rosters in the league but will be facing a talented Brewers team littered with elite talent, setting up what should be one of the more exciting matchups this event has to offer. If you’re at all interested in what the (not so distant) future of the Mariners could look like, I can’t recommend this game enough.

When: Today, March 20th, at 2:10 PT

Where to watch: MLB.tv, MLB.com, or the MLB app

Pitchers

Kade Anderson, Charlie Beilenson, Tyler Cleveland, Casey Hintz, Lucas Kelly, Po-Chun Lin, Brock Moore, Robinson Ortiz, Mason Peters, Ryan Sloan

Anderson and Sloan, the team’s top two pitching prospects, will deservedly catch most of the headlines for this pitching staff. Both feature premiere pedigree and are top ten minor league pitchers in baseball, though Sloan’s immense frame and bullying arsenal provide an interesting contrast to Anderson’s deception and pitchability. Regardless of their differences on the mound, they are both immensely talented players and are sure to get into game action this afternoon.

Though not nearly as elite as Anderson or Sloan, both Lucas Kelly and Mason Peters deserve to be highlighted ahead of tonight’s game. Members of last year’s draft class, Peters (4th round) and Kelly (6th round) were both relievers in college and feature big time stuff that gives them a great shot to move quickly. Peters, who should be a starter this season, is a low launch lefty with a fastball that plays well at the top of the zone and a devastating array of breaking balls he can spin with the best of them. He’s got a slight frame, but the arsenal should be fine as a starter if the body can hold up. Kelly, who’s a pure relief prospect, is a high octane side-armer that’s touched triple digits with his heater and gets big extension down the mound from his 6’4 frame. It’s primarily a fastball-slider profile that could move through the minors as fast as just about anybody in this system.

Po-Chun Lin is a fun inclusion to this roster. We’re yet to see his debut, but he’s gotten good reviews from scouts who have seen him. A stout lefty from Taiwan, Lin has found success in international play and is a name to monitor for the real prospect sickos.

Catchers

Josh Caron

Luke Stevenson

Caron is looking to bounce back after a disappointing first season in the pro ranks, but Stevenson, who was last year’s Comp A selection, looked superb at the plate last summer and should be one of the more exciting prospects to follow this season. His blend of defense, power, and leadership is enviable for such a young player, and he looked to be finding his hit tool with regularity in his debut with Modesto.

Infielders

Michael Arroyo, Nick Becker, Felnin Celesten, Colt Emerson, Charlie Pagliarini, Brock Rodden, Austin St. Laurent, Luis Suisbel

This group is headlined by Colt Emerson and Michael Arroyo, two players who got a healthy amount of run with the big league squad this spring and more than held their own. They’re both likely to debut in the majors this year and figure to be key factors for this organization moving forward. Rodden, another guy who’s had a really nice spring in his own right, is finally back healthy and raking, a fantastic sign for a guy who could easily fill in as a utility guy at some point in the near future. He’s something of a Leo Rivas/Dylan Moore hybrid, though he might end up having a better offensive game than both of them.

Nick Becker and Felnin Celesten are the names that are most probable to make major moves on ranking boards this season, though which direction is yet to be seen. Celesten is entering a “prove it” type of year after last season’s let down, but he’s shown he can be an elite performer when healthy and remains just 20 years old. Becker, who briefly debuted last summer after signing as the team’s second rounder, has a bundle of tools that gives him immense ceiling, but he’ll have to get everything dialed in if he wants to ascend up the rankings like many think he can.

Outfielders

Yorger Bautista, Korbyn Dickerson, Jonny Farmelo, Carlos Jimenez, Lazaro Montes, Jared Sundstrom, Aiden Taurek

Both Montes and Farmelo have been atop prospect lists for several years now and feature immense potential, though neither seems all that likely to debut in the big leagues this year due to a variety of reasons. Farmelo has missed over a year and a half of his professional career due to injury and desperately needs reps to prove what he can do, and Montes, who’s performed well throughout his professional career, started to get exposed a bit in Double-A after a torrid start to his promotion. They both remain immense pieces to the future of this organization and will have every opportunity to keep their place near the top of our rankings.

A sleeper name to know, Aiden Taurek could not stop hitting last summer in Modesto and looks like a tough AB on pitchers. He’s an OBP first bat that could be an interesting name to follow in the AquaSox lineup.

Spring training is almost over

GLENDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 18: Manager Dave Roberts #30 of the Los Angeles Dodgers speaks to the media prior to a Spring Training game against the San Francisco Giants at Camelback Ranch on March 18, 2026 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images) | Getty Images

We are 27 games into spring training, and the Dodgers have only two more days in Arizona before returning home to Southern California to finish off the exhibition slate against the Angels.

After witnessing — either from afar on television/radio, or in person — Dodgers-related things for the last five weeks, let’s look back on Cactus League play.

Today’s question is what was your favorite moment from 2026 spring training?

Partnerships with prediction markets pose concerns for MLB

ORLANDO, FL - DECEMBER 08: Major League Baseball Commissioner Robert D. Manfred Jr. looks on during the MLB and the Dominican Baseball Federation announcement at the 2025 Winter Meetings at The Signia by Hilton Orlando Bonnet Creek on Monday, December 8, 2025 in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Mary Holt/WBCI/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

If you have been concerned that there are not enough ways in 2026 to gamble on Major League Baseball, then I have good news for you. MLB entered into a partnership with prediction market Polymarket, first reported by Ben Horney of Front Office Sports and then later announced by both organizations. Polymarket gains the right to use official logos and marks, while MLB is reported to receive somewhere between $150 million and $300 million a year from the prediction markets.

Prediction markets, which are a relatively new product but rapidly increasing in popularity and visibility, allow users to bet on a whole host of things, from who will win the Kansas City Royals home opener to whether Jesus Christ return before 2027? These bets happen against other users through the buying and selling of contracts, similar to how a stock exchange works, instead of betting against the house as you do in a casino. This difference currently allows the markets to be regulated at the federal level by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission instead of at the state level, where traditional gambling is regulated. Theoretically, this makes these markets legal nationwide, although that is currently being challenged in court.

Unsurprisingly, Evan Drellich of the Athletic wrote an excellent article about the partnership. His treatise included quotes from Ari Borod, Polymarket president of sports business, that I think are both very revealing and very frustrating to someone like me who is ready to go full Temperance Movement on legalized gambling.

Borod, as does MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred, frames this partnership as a way to protect the integrity of the game and help catch bad actors. Borod explained this to Drellich, stating:

“We will work collaboratively with MLB to identify what types of markets pose unreasonable integrity risks for the game of baseball, and try to get those out of the market, with the goal being, how do you protect customers?

The phrase that really stood out to me is unreasonable integrity risk. I think this begs the question, what is a “reasonable” integrity risk? Integrity in the game of baseball is a fundamentally necessary component, at least for me, to continue investing my time and money into the Royals and other MLB teams. I don’t want there to be “reasonable” integrity risks that are not just tolerated, but actively in partnership with the league. I want the leaders of the sport to guard the integrity of the game of baseball like you would guard a nuclear power plant. You don’t want even reasonable risks to be involved where nuclear fallout could be the result of said risks going awry. I want the most reasonable risks and seemingly tolerable to be taken seriously and accounted for when the results of failure could be as spectacular and long-lasting for MLB as Chernobyl was for Ukraine.

Last season, prop bets, which are bets on micro events instead of the game at large, were considered reasonable enough to be legal, even encouraged, by MLB teams and their gambling partners. Then word leaked that Cleveland Guardians relievers Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz were being investigated and then indicted for allegedly rigging pitchers for financial gain. Clase and Ortiz have both said they are not guilty. Prosecutors for the case allege that Clase began this practice back in 2023, but Clase was not placed under investigation until 2025.

After the indictment, MLB and its gambling partners announced a $200 cap on prop bets, as well as forbidding the prop bets from being included in parlays. Parlays, which are a series of bets made at once that bring increased payouts if successful but fail if just one part of the bet doesn’t hit, are critically important to sports gambling companies’ bottom line. I think these steps are just a partial step towards what we need to do as a society, but I’m sure many people find them reasonable.

On one hand, I understand why MLB is attempting to get ahead of this and try to curb what contracts are allowed to be purchased. Pablo Torre recently aired an episode of his podcast, Pablo Torre Finds Out, about prediction markets titled “The Prop-Betification of Everything,” where he and author James Surowiecki discuss why prediction markets are useful tools, but also discuss the danger of turning anything that generates sufficient interest into a prop bet. If this went completely unchecked, we likely would see more incidents like Clase and Ortiz.

On the other hand, what if the very existence and popularity of sports gambling and prediction markets in particular are unreasonable risks to the integrity of the game? A key component of the Guardians’ pitcher scandal was essentially insider trading. Insiders, the pitchers themselves, knew that the pitch being thrown was going to be a ball because it was in their control. This ability to self-deal, allegedly for years, was critical to this scheme being pulled off.

Polymarket doesn’t explicitly ban insider trading, but has a broad ban on fraudulent bets. Borod paid lip service to avoiding props that have already proven to be a risk for the league, telling Drellich:

“I can’t share different specifics on parameters, but what I can share is that props that are easily susceptible to manipulation, or that, again, raise unreasonable integrity concerns, we want to keep those out of the game as well,”

Clearly, the phrase of the day is unreasonable integrity, but it’s a concern this time instead of a risk. Insider trading seems like it raises an unreasonable integrity concern, yet Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan apparently has a different perspective, viewing insider trading as a feature and not a bug. Here’s a summary of his point of view from a Forbes article about the topic:

Coplan has publicly supported the idea of using insider information to trade in prediction markets, framing “insider trading” in these markets as a public good that would enable the masses to get access to accurate information more quickly.

Insider trading is a key component to making these prediction markets as accurate as possible, yet it is also the very thing that makes them so susceptible to people with knowledge not available to the public enriching themselves at the expense of other people. Someone else and their money is at the other end of those contracts, not a massive entity like FanDuel or DraftKings.

The very existence of a market that, at the very least, implicitly encourages insider trading being allowed to carry MLB related product seems like an unreasonable integrity risk to me, no matter how much you try to police the worst elements of it. This seems like it’s going to end up in a whack-a-mole situation; another scandal will pop up around one of the products being offered, then there will be some change meant to address that specific product, rinse and repeat. How long until this process starts to completely erode public trust and start to hurt the bottom line in MLB remains to be seen. I would bet, however, you can wager on the outcome.

San Diego has major threat behind the dish

PEORIA, ARIZONA - MARCH 14: Freddy Fermin #54 of the San Diego Padres throws a warm up toss during a Spring Training game against the Cleveland Guardians at Peoria Stadium on March 14, 2026 in Peoria, Arizona. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Earlier this year, I tried to gauge how much the ABS (Automated Ball-Strike) Challenge System’s introduction into the game would affect the value of the catcher position for the San Diego Padres. 

Eventually I concluded with the idea that those who were elite with the system would be given more leeway to challenge (thereby having a much greater ability to influence the game). 

Enter Freddy Fermin

Among qualified hitters (more than three plate appearances), Fermin has the highest batting average on the Padres. Through 12 contests this spring, the backstop has hit .412 with two home runs and 11 RBI. 

That puts him with an OPS of 1.120. For reference, New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge had a 1.145 OPS last season. 

I’m not saying that Fermin can keep up that level of production at the major league level and compete with Judge. But it’s a great sign of his bat having life in it. 

For someone the Friars paid an arm and a leg for, it’s great to see him produce. The hope, obviously, is that it’ll carry over to the regular season, and to the next two years of his contract. 

Additional value in ABS

But going back to the new implementation of ABS. It’s been a storyline all offseason and will continue to be for most of this regular season with its introduction into MLB. 

Fermin has heralded its entrance quite well, leading the league in challenge win rate (among catchers to call for at least 10 challenges) with 86 percent.

The closest one behind him is San Francisco Giants two-time Gold Glover Patrick Bailey (83%). 

Fermin is due for a breakout year. It will be his first full season as the primary catcher for a club after serving as the backup behind Salvador Perez in Kansas City to start his career. 

His emergence as a hitter and elite defender would go a long, long way toward winning games in San Diego. If this translates into the regular season, the Friars will have gotten a bargain with Fermin behind the dish.

Elephant Rumblings: Luis Severino Officially Named Opening Day Starter

SEATTLE, WA - MARCH 27: Luis Severino #40 of the Athletics pitches during the game between the Athletics and the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on Thursday, March 27, 2025 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Rod Mar/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

Morning everyone and welcome back to another beautiful Friday!

The A’s made the expected announcement late yesterday afternoon that staff leader Luis Severino will indeed get the ball for the Athletics on Opening Day in Toronto to take on the Blue Jays:

This announcement comes as almost zero surprise. Severino is the unquestioned best option for the assignment and his salary matches that. The right-hander has only pitched in one spring contest for the A’s so far but he made three starts for the Dominican Republic recently, including two during the World Baseball Classic. In those contests he looked sharp, reaching 40, 60, and 68, with his final start coming against the United States in the semi-finals. The 32-year-old has pitched in tons of big games during his career and A’s fans are hoping he can be that guy for them soon.

Still, last year’s quick start on the first day of the long regular season did not portend to coming success. Instead Severino was a tale of two pitchers, struggling at home while thriving and looking every bit the part of the pitcher that the A’s gave a record-setting contract to. He definitely had his moments and hot streaks, but he also had some epic meltdowns as well. Severino ultimately made almost every start, save for a few near the end of the year when the season was already over. In his first year in the Green & Gold Severino finished with a 4.54 ERA across 29 starts, racking up a solid 2.5 WAR in the process.

This’ll be his second Opening Day start for the A’s in as many years, and third in his career after taking the ball for the New York Yankees back in 2018. In that start way back then, he pitched 5 2/3 innings of one-hit ball against…. the Toronto Blue Jays. And with the Athletics last year he also had a shutout appearance as he held down the Seattle Mariners to three hits over six strong innings of work. He’d end up not getting the well-deserved win that evening, and it wasn’t even a sign of things to come as Sevy had a roller coaster first year with the A’s.

The only other options the A’s could have been seriously considering were left-hander Jeffrey Springs (who is expected to get the ball for Game 2) or possibly Luis Morales. Springs on paper would seem like nearly as good a bet to get the Opening Day nod, but the lefty hasn’t had a good spring so far and notoriously got off to a horrible start to his season last year. Morales meanwhile is just barely not a rookie anymore after making 9 starts for the A’s down the final stretch last year. It wasn’t completely out of the realm of possibility after the A’s went with another inexperienced rookie in Kyle Muller just a couple of years ago, but with Morales’ lack of innings under his belt, not to mention experience, it would have been plain mean to send him into Toronto on Opening Day, against the defending American League Champions, no less.

Speaking of the Jays, Severino will have quite the challenge for him waiting north of the border. Though they lost star shortstop Bo Bichette this offseason this Jays offense is just as dangerous as the Athletics’ lineup. Anchored by likely future Hall-of-Famer Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Blue Jays also have star hitters like George Springer and Alejando Kirk, not to mention quality bats like Daulton Varsho, Addison Barger and brief-Athletic Ernie Clement. Oh, add in the wild card in Kazuma Okamoto the slugging third baseman from overseas. On the plus side for Severino, he’s done well against Toronto in his career (3.86 ERA in 16 starts), and add in that Vlad Jr., Kirk, Okamoto and Clement are right-handed hitters. So there’s that small advantage.

Wasn’t really a surprise but now we have it official. Who else is ready to see Severino shut down the defending AL Champions on their home turf next Friday? Something to get excited about! Have a good weekend A’s fans!

A’s Coverage:

MLB News and Interest:

Best of X:

Any chance the front office gets the green light for something like that?

A fun rabbit hole to go down…

Would the A’s have made the same request as the Padres regarding Mason Miller?

Sneak peak of what’s to come on Sunday:

Previewing Red Sox Playoff Rivals: The Kansas City Royals

DETROIT, MI - AUGUST 22: Bobby Witt Jr. #7 of the Kansas City Royals celebrates with Maikel Garcia #11 after they both scored against the Detroit Tigers on a double by Salvador Perez during the third inning at Comerica Park on August 22, 2025 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images) | Getty Images

As the Red Sox approach Opening Day, it’s time to start taking at look at the other American League playoff contenders. Next up, a team that’s led by an MVP candidate.


What’s this team’s deal?

In 2024 the Royals bounced back from a 106-loss season to win 86 games and finish in second place in the AL Central. Those Royals would sweep their Wild Card series against the Baltimore Orioles before falling to the Yankees in the ALDS. It looked like a Kansas City miracle. 2025 would see a chunk of that progress fall back to earth. Regression to the mean comes for us all. But they still won 82 games last year.

This winter the Royals added outfielders Starling Marte and Lane Thomas. They’ll join top prospect Jac Caglianone in his sophomore season in the majors. Caglianone is fresh off a WBC run with Team Italy that saw him slash .286/.500/.571 with a home run and a K:BB of 4:5. Extreme sample and quality sizes abound with the WBC, but this is a guy who put up a OPS north of 1.000 in AAA. They’re expecting some runs like that mixed into a full season.

How good are they?

Bobby Witt Jr. was a superstar again and finished fourth in AL MVP voting. He was an All Star. He won a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove. When you commit to essentially a forever deal with a player, that’s what you want to see.

KC also saw a breakout season for third baseman Maikel Garcia. He finished 14th in MVP voting, was an All Star, won a Silver Slugger, and earned himself an extension that runs at least through 2030. Oh yeah, he also won WBC MVP this week after Venezuela took the championship. From Opening Day 2025 to Opening Day 2026 he’s had a pretty good year.


Vinnie Pasquantino bounced back from an injury-shortened 2024 season to play in 160 games last year, hitting .264/.323/.475 with a personal best 32 home runs. “Where’s the f’ing wine?“ indeed. Pasquatch looks ready to be the solid contributor at first base they need. Especially when he’s beaned up.

The starting rotation features Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Noah Cameron, and Kris Bubic. The Royals had one of the better rotations in the game last season by ERA and are set to do so again with this crew. Lugo and Wacha are in their mid-30s, but the other three are all under 30.

They acquired former Red Sox pitcher and Matt Strahm to shore up the bullpen.

You may remember Aaron Sanchez from his time on the Blue Jays a decade ago. Well, he’s in camp as a non-roster invitee and is still just 33 years old. Old friend John Schreiber is still there, too.

There are a lot of questions in the rotation — even if it can be good. The lineup is Witt, Pasquantino, Garcia, and Perez with maybe Caglianone joining them. They need a bounce-back season from Jonathan India.

The WBC featured a number of Royals across the teams in the tournament and there is talent here, but is there enough? Bobby Witt Jr. is still just one person in the lineup.

Who’s their most likeable player?

Most likeable isn’t always synonymous with best, but in this instance there’s a strong case for it. Bobby Witt Jr. is always playing hard out there and looks like he’s loving every second of it. How can you not root for that?

Who’s their least likeable player?

I almost want to say Salvador Perez because it feels like he’s always hitting against the Red Sox. As it turns out though, .276/.308/.483 isn’t his best split against a team. And his 16 homers are just second to teams not in the AL Central (he has 17 against the Yankees). That’s not really enough to override his general status as a catching legend. He’s been around so long he feels like a familiar opponent but without real hard feelings.

Michael Wacha, has, if anything, been a little worse for the Royals than he was in Boston, as his health and performance continue to fluctuate wildly.

Matt Strahm’s hair is just…scary.

Maybe this space gets filled by Jac Caglianone. Did you know that the C in Jac stands for Caglianone? His name is Jeffrey Allen Caglianone, but he goes by Jac, like a PIN Number. What are we even doing here?

Schedule against the Red Sox

The Red Sox will be in Kansas City May 18-20 and the Royals visit Fenway Park from September 11-13.

Season Prediction

With some health and progress from their younger players like Caglianone and Garcia — and in an AL Central that’s probably weak after the Tigers — they could bounce right back up to 84-85 wins. They can maybe even sneak into the division lead if things go wrong in Detroit and they flip Tarik Skubal this summer.

Orioles opponent preview: Other AL contenders

PEORIA, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 24: Cal Raleigh #29 of the Seattle Mariners looks on during the fourth inning of a spring training game against the Chicago White Sox at Peoria Stadium on February 24, 2026 in Peoria, Arizona. (Photo by Mike Christy/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Six days remain until Opening Day. As things stand now, playoff odds at both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus give a pretty good chance that all three AL wild cards will come out of the AL East. There is also a decent chance that things go outside of this conventional wisdom and that the Orioles, if they find themselves in a wild card race, will be fighting for space with teams from one of the other divisions in the AL.

Essentially, every team except for the White Sox has at least a little bit of a chance, according to these models. The Angels have a modest 5% postseason chance on FG, though PECOTA puts them under 1%. Even the Athletics who play in Sacramento but do not officially use its name get an 11.8% at PECOTA and as high as 24.2% at FG. There have been a lot of seasons in my life where the Orioles having a one in four chance of making the postseason before it began would have seemed good. This is not one of those seasons.

When I wrote a version of this article one year ago, the wild card seemed like a fallback if the Orioles couldn’t compete for the division. As things played out, they didn’t even compete for the wild card. If things go better this year – but not radically better – here’s who the Orioles might be contending with to make it back into the postseason.

Detroit Tigers

  • Last season: 87-75, 2nd place, 1 GB in Central (Wild Card 3)
  • Projected wins: 87 (FanGraphs) / 83 (PECOTA)
  • Key subtractions: Pretty much nobody who was good last year
  • Key additions: Kenley Jansen (free agent), Framber Valdez (free agent), Justin Verlander (free agent)

I wrote a year ago that the Tigers were largely trying to run it back from a disappointing 2024 and now they’re trying to run it back from a better 2025. That is, run it back plus adding Valdez to a rotation that includes the record-setting-salary two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal at the top of it. They even managed to hold on to guys who became free agents, since Gleyber Torres accepted the qualifying offer and they re-signed their midseason trade rental Kyle Finnegan. There’s even a Verlander reunion in here, though whether that proves to be good for the team is less certain.

One part of Detroit’s revival of fortunes in 2025 was an improved offense, with a number of guys who’d struggled, including the former 1-1 Spencer Torkelson, getting better to help get the Tigers to at least a league average offense. If your pitching staff is good enough, a league average offense will do. Other than Skubal, it wasn’t exactly, but now they’ve got Skubal and Valdez and whatever’s left of Verlander, so that could be another story this year.

Kansas City Royals

  • Last season: 82-80, 3rd place, 6 GB in Central
  • Projected wins: 81 (FG) / 85 (PECOTA)
  • Key subtractions: Mike Yastrzemski (free agent), Hunter Harvey (free agent), Adam Frazier (free agent), Angel Zerpa (traded to Brewers)
  • Key additions: Isaac Collins and Nick Mears (trade with Brewers), Matt Strahm (trade with Phillies), Starling Marte (free agent)

Kansas City may not be doing a “run it back” to the same degree that Detroit is, but there is a whole lot of continuity here, including five of the six starting pitchers who made at least 10 starts last year. The one guy they didn’t bring back is the guy who had the worst ERA out of those six. There was some bullpen shuffling for what was largely a disappointing group.

Among the position players, they’ve got to rely on continuing to get star-level performance from Bobby Witt Jr. The Royals bet big on infielder Maikel Garcia this offseason, giving him a five-year contract extension. What they really need to improve is a bad-hitting outfield. Collins, acquired from Milwaukee, is part of that. KC could also use better hitting from Kyle Isbel (.654 OPS) and, more crucially, recent #6 overall pick Jac Caglianone (.532 OPS in 62 games).

Minnesota Twins

  • Last season: 70-92, 4th place, 18 GB in Central
  • Projected wins: 78 (FG) / 79 (PECOTA)
  • Key subtractions: Pablo López (Tommy John surgery)
  • Key additions: Josh Bell (free agent), Victor Caratini (free agent), Taylor Rogers (free agent)

A lot of analyst commentary spent this offseason assuming that the Twins would be making salary-slashing trades that they never actually made. Perhaps, in the case of López, they ought to have done this, but they didn’t. They kept him, they kept Joe Ryan, they kept the oft-injured Byron Buxton. Minnesota did its salary cutting at last year’s trade deadline, notably getting rid of Carlos Correa, so they will be bringing something of a different look into 2026 compared to Opening Day 2025.

The Twins plan for 2026 contention probably involves Buxton staying healthy and getting a lot of improvement from the arms in their rotation behind Ryan. That includes their home-grown guy Bailey Ober (5.10 ERA in 2025) and July 2025 acquisitions Taj Bradley and Mick Abel. I will be interested to see as 2026 plays out whether the Orioles might have been better off trying to trade for Ryan than signing Zach Eflin and Chris Bassitt.

Cleveland Guardians

  • Last season: 88-74, 1st place in Central
  • Projected wins: 76 (FG) / 76 (PECOTA)
  • Key subtractions: Emmanuel Clase (gambling scandal)
  • Key additions: Pretty much nobody

The most substantial move these Guardians did this offseason was reach another contract extension with their career-long star, José Ramírez. He also happens to be the only good hitter on this team. Cleveland won the division last year while getting a .670 OPS from its offense. They overperformed their Pythagorean expected record by eight wins last year and kept nearly everything the same. It is not a surprise to see the projection systems not being high on this strategy. It might work out anyway. Cleveland has won this division six times in the last ten years.

Seattle Mariners

  • Last season: 90-72, 1st place in West
  • Projected wins: 88 (FG) / 94 (PECOTA)
  • Key subtractions: Cal Raleigh’s likeability (WBC shenanigans), Jorge Polanco (free agent)
  • Key additions: Jose A. Ferrer (trade with Nationals), Brendan Donovan (three-way trade from Cardinals)

This was a pretty good offense last year, with Raleigh’s star breakout powering a lot along with a revival of fortunes for Julio Rodríguez. It was a good hitting group almost from top-to-bottom, though, with only two real weaknesses. One of those was third base, which they shored up substantially – at least on paper – with the acquisition of Donovan. The Mariners big offseason move was re-signing their own guy, Josh Naylor, who they’d acquired from the Diamondbacks in July.

Add in a starting rotation that should have three or four league average-or-better guys and an elite closer in Andrés Muñoz and that’s a good recipe to try to repeat a division title and maybe win Game 7 to go to the World Series rather than lose it.

Houston Astros

  • Last season: 87-75, 2nd place, 3 GB in West
  • Projected wins: 81 (FG) / 85 (PECOTA)
  • Key subtractions: Framber Valdez (free agent), Victor Caratini (free agent)
  • Key additions: Joey Loperfido (trade with Blue Jays), Tatsuya Imai (posted international free agent)

Houston had been on a run of making the postseason every year from 2017 until they missed out last year. They didn’t miss out by much, but still. That team lost Valdez to free agency, perhaps choosing not to retain their own player because he was looking for an ace payday while not even being the Astros ace in 2025.

Replacing Valdez in the rotation is Japanese pitcher Tatsuya Imai, whose profile ultimately left MLB teams uncertain about him. Imai secured a contract that will allow him to opt out for a bigger payday if he pitches as well as he believes he can. If that’s the case, the Astros will benefit for this year. If it doesn’t work out, $18 million per year is an expense they can absorb.

Texas Rangers

  • Last season: 81-81, 3rd place, 9 GB in West
  • Projected wins: 81 (FG) / 83 (PECOTA)
  • Key subtractions: Marcus Semien (trade with Mets)
  • Key additions: Brandon Nimmo (trade with Mets), Danny Jansen (free agent), MacKenzie Gore (trade with Nationals)

The 2023 World Series from Texas, following 60- and 68-win seasons and succeeded by 78- and 81-win seasons, looks more like a fluke the more time that passes. The flag will, as they say, fly forever. They’ve swapped old, expensive guys in the Semien-for-Nimmo deal, shored up a weakness at catcher with the Jansen free agent deal, and made a big swing on Gore by trading a prospect package as if he’s the top-end starting rotation that he’s never actually been yet.

The projection systems are not high on this all working out for them. That doesn’t mean that it can’t happen. As we know from past eras of Orioles success, if two or three things go right beyond what any projection system envisioned, it’s not that hard to go from that to blowing past your projected win total by ten or more. Texas’s upside relative to the projections is probably in its rotation: Gore finally blossoming, Jacob deGrom staying in good health, Nathan Eovaldi carrying forward his 1.73 ERA in 22 starts into a full season.

**

Will I look stupid at season’s end for not including the Athletics, Angels, or White Sox in this article? It is up to them to do that to me. Sitting here in mid-March, I will not be bothered.

Which of these other teams concerns you the most as possible wild card contenders for the Orioles?

Another look at the Cubs’ likely Opening Day roster

It’s hard to believe, but today we stand only six days away from the Cubs’ first 2026 regular season game, which will be next Thursday at Wrigley Field against the Washington Nationals.

Here’s a first look at the weather forecast:

Thursday

A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 58.

Honestly? That wouldn’t be too bad, as long as the “chance” turns into “nope.”

Here’s who I think will be standing on the third-base line to be introduced to the Wrigley crowd next Thursday.

Catchers (2)

Miguel Amaya, Carson Kelly

Nothing to really discuss here. These two are a solid catching tandem.

Infielders (5)

Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, Matt Shaw

I’m listing Shaw as an infielder even though he could very well be in right field on Opening Day if Seiya Suzuki’s injury forces him to the injured list, something that hasn’t yet been determined.

Outfielders (5)

Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, Dylan Carlson, Michael Conforto

With the possibility that Suzuki’s not available, Carlson and Conforto could both make the Opening Day roster. Incidentally, PCA and Bregman are expected back in camp today, but likely won’t play in a game until tomorrow or Sunday.

Designated hitter (1)

Moisés Ballesteros

I’m listing Ballesteros here because that’s what he will be most of the time — the team’s DH. Interesting article here by Patrick Mooney in The Athletic about Ballesteros:

“I’ve suggested to the hitting coaches that they stay away from him,” Counsell said. “I did have a meeting with the hitting coaches at one point this spring. I called them all together, and they got a little nervous. I said, ‘You guys should stay away from Ballesteros.’

“Joking, you know, but they got the message.”

Ballesteros might never become more than an emergency/occasional catcher in MLB, but the man can hit. In Spring Training so far he’s batting .355/.394/.613 (11-for-33) in 11 games with two doubles, two home runs and eight RBI.

Starting pitchers (5)

Matthew Boyd, Edward Cabrera, Cade Horton, Shōta Imanaga, Jameson Taillon

We already know that Boyd will start the Opening Day game. Beyond that Craig Counsell hasn’t announced his rotation, so the rest are listed in alphabetical order.

For the record, I am not concerned about Taillon, who’s had a terrible spring. Nor am I concerned about Imanaga, who had an outstanding outing on Tuesday. I had written that he had 23 whiffs in that outing; the correct number is 25, which is the most by any Cub in any game, spring or not, since Yu Darvish had 26 in 2020.

Relief pitchers (8)

Daniel Palencia, Hunter Harvey, Phil Maton, Hoby Milner, Caleb Thielbar, Jacob Webb, Colin Rea, Gavin Hollowell

It’s possible the Cubs keep Ben Brown in the pen to start the season, although he might also be sent to Triple-A Iowa to be stretched out to start. The same is true of Javier Assad, I think. Hollowell has had a good spring (24 batters faced, 11 strikeouts), but he is optionable, so it’s possible someone else might take that spot. One thing Jed Hoyer has been really good at is identifying scrap-heap relievers who have come to Chicago and succeeded.

Of the eight relievers listed above, only two (Rea and Thielbar) were on last year’s Opening Day roster and four (Harvey, Maton, Milner, Webb) were not in the Cubs organization at all in 2025.

Mets 2026 Season Preview: A.J. Minter will be a bullpen asset when he returns

PORT ST. LUCIE, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 19: A.J. Minter #33 of the New York Mets poses for a photo during the New York Mets Photo Day at Clover Park on February 19, 2026 in Port St. Lucie, Florida. (Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Mets signed 32-year-old lefty and career Atlanta Brave A.J. Minter to a two-year, $22 million contract in the 2024-2025 season with the intention of making him an essential late-inning piece in their bullpen. Things did not go according to plan. On April 26, Minter walked off the mound at Nationals Park in Washington DC having a suffered an injury, but he did not realize at the time how bad the injury was.

“I didn’t think it was going to be a season-ending injury,” Minter said this week. It turned out that he had completely torn the lat muscle from his bone and needed surgery, evoking horrible memories in the minds of Mets fans of Noah Syndergaard suffering a similar injury on the very same mound eight years earlier. Thus, Minter’s first season as a Met ended after just 13 appearances. For that very brief period last season, Minter was everything the Mets hoped for. He pitched to a 1.64 ERA and struck out 14 batters in his 11 innings of work.

As the Mets’ pitching staff faltered down the stretch last season, once again struggling to consistently build a bridge to Edwin Díaz, Minter’s absence was acutely felt. The bullpen as a collective pitched to an ERA over 4 in the second half of 2025. With Danny Young also having gone down early in the season with a season-ending UCL tear that required Tommy John surgery to repair, the Mets had a hard time finding consistent left-handed relief pitching. A group that included Genesis Cabrera, Jose Castillo, and Dicky Lovelady, among others cycled in and out of the bullpen to fill that void with mostly mediocre results. Such a problem was the Minter-shaped hole in the bullpen that the Mets had to address it at the deadline via trade, acquiring Gregory Soto from the Orioles, who pitched to an uninspiring 4.50 ERA as a Met.

“We felt it last year when he went down,” manager Carlos Mendoza recently said of Minter. “He’s a guy that’s going to pitch in high leverage. He’s been pretty successful. He’s elite. The biggest thing when you’ve got a lefty there that can get righties out, he’s a weapon there — a guy that we’re going to be counting on for those high-leverage [spots].”

Just a few days after Minter’s injury, the Mets brought back Brooks Raley, who was still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, on a cheap deal with an option for 2026. That turned out to be an excellent move by David Stearns; Raley was a huge shot in the arm from the left side in the bullpen later in the season and will begin 2026 as the primary left-handed reliever in the bullpen. Unless the Mets decide to roster perpetual on-again, off-again Met Dicky Lovelady or Bryan Hudson for that final bullpen spot currently still up for grabs, Raley will be the only lefty in the pen until Minter returns. Regarding that roster battle, Carlos Mendoza emphasized that the Mets are not necessarily looking for a second lefty and will take the best group of pitchers north with the team, regardless of handedness.

Last Friday, everyone’s eyes were on Francisco Lindor as he took live batting practice for the first time this spring as he prepared to play in his first Grapefruit League game over the weekend. But that live BP was also A.J. Minter’s third session of the spring. He threw all three of his pitches in the session and touched 93 mph on the radar gun. He admitted that his velocity was slower than where he wants it to be, but is also cognizant that he and the Mets are taking his ramp-up slow to keep him healthy. “Honestly, it feels way better than I expected it was going to feel,” Minter said. At one point one of his cutters, which Lindor foul-tipped, even induced a “That was sick” remark from the Mets’ shortstop.

Minter is no stranger to rehabbing injuries. He had surgery to repair a torn labrum in 2024 and has also undergone Tommy John surgery and surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome. “But this by far has been the easiest rehab process,” Minter said. “I’ve had it all, but this has been about getting the shoulder strong again.” With just a few games left in spring training, Minter is hoping to see Grapefruit League action before the team heads north for Opening Day and remains on track to return in late April or early May.

“I want to help this team out. I feel like I let them down last year,” Minter said. “But for me to help the team is for me to stay healthy and on the field. If I have to be a month behind, so be it, and just make sure I’m ready to go when I come back.”

Mariners News: Logan Gilbert, Emerson Hancock, and Trey Yesavage

Feb 23, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Seattle Mariners pitcher Logan Gilbert against the Los Angeles Dodgers during a spring training game at Camelback Ranch-Glendale. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Good morning and happy Friday, everyone!

The Mariners triumphed in yesterday’s spring training ballgame against the A’s by a 6-4 final.

We inch ever closer to Opening Day, with the Mariners kicking things off on Thursday against the Guardians. What are your plans for the opener? Will you be at the game, or will you be taking it in some other way?

In Mariners news…

Around the league…

Tigers lose Reffell for eight weeks with throat injury

Tommy Reffell in action for Leicester Tigers
Tommy Reffell has been with Leicester Tigers since he was a teenager playing at academy level [Getty Images]

Leicester Tigers flanker Tommy Reffell has been ruled out for about eight weeks after suffering a throat injury in training.

Reffell was hurt when hit in the neck by "a stray boot" during a session in the days after leading Tigers to Prem Cup final success against Exeter Chiefs.

The injury could see the 26-year-old Wales international miss at least seven matches, not including further knockout ties in the European Champions Cup if they get past Bordeaux Begles in the round of 16 in April.

"We're gutted to lose Tommy to a very unfortunate injury where a stray boot has hit his throat," Tigers head coach Geoff Parling told the club website.

"He has been a real pest to the opposition, and we'll use this time to firstly get him fit and healthy and secondly get him ready and firing for the end of the season."

Reffell's injury means loanee Hamish Watson will come in for his Tigers debut against Bristol Bears on Sunday.

Watson rejoined Tigers, a club he played for at academy level, on a short-term deal from Scottish side Edinburgh earlier in March.

"This also presents an opportunity for Hamish to start and show his quality in a Tigers shirt in a full circle moment after leaving our academy 16 years ago," Parling said.

Good Morning San Diego: Regulars return to lineup, Padres top White Sox, 13-6

PEORIA, ARIZONA - MARCH 14: Jake Cronenworth #9 of the San Diego Padres runs towards first base on a single during a Spring Training game against the Cleveland Guardians at Peoria Stadium on March 14, 2026 in Peoria, Arizona. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Michael King, like his last time out, was hurt by the long ball when he and the San Diego Padres played the Chicago White Sox at the Peoria Sports Complex on Thursday. Fortunately for King, the Padres had their full compliment of All-Star players in their lineup, and they were able to overcome the White Sox and earn a 13-6 win.

King allowed three runs in the first inning, two of which came on a two-run home run by Lamonte Wade Jr., a run in the second inning on a sacrifice fly and two runs in the fifth inning which came on back-to-back home runs by Curtis Mead and Wade Jr., and left the game after five innings of work with the score tied 6-6.

San Diego exploded for seven runs in the bottom of the eighth inning. Jake Cronenworth hit a bases clearing double after three consecutive walks to start the inning and Jackson Merrill followed two batters later with a ground-rule double to put the Padres up 10-6. Ty France followed Merrill and with two runners on, he again cleared the bases with a three-run home run to give San Diego a 13-6 lead en route to the win.

The Padres return to action today with a meeting against the Los Angeles Dodgers at 6:05 p.m.

Padres News:

  • With Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mason Miller back at the Peoria Sports Complex after their time with their World Baseball Classic teams, both players were asked about the matchup that could have happened when the Domincan Republic faced the US in the semi-final. Miller got the third and final out of the game while Tatis stood in the on-deck circle leaving everyone to wonder, “What would have happened?”  
  • Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune focused his report on Padres reliever Jeremiah Estrada and the motivation he has to be successful with San Diego after his departure from the Chicago Cubs.
  • Padres.TV color analyst Mark Grant signed and extension with the San Diego organization that will ensure he and play-by-play announcer Don Orsillo remain in the booth, together, for years to come.

Baseball News:

In The Lab: A Look at Astros Offensive and Defensive Efficiency

Analytics has any number of practical uses, but the best and original use is to verify feelings that we may have when we watch the games. Emotional responses are often rife with bias. We often remember what we want to remember and forget what we want to forget so that we can forward the narrative we have built up in our minds. As you can see by the title, we are looking at Astros efficiency. So, what exactly is efficiency?

To explain it simply, it is the percentage of runners that end up crossing home plate. However, one of the things we have neglected when looking at efficiency is the pitching end of it. The best numbers are numbers that serve as a mirror image of each other. If it is good for a high percentage of runners to score then it is also good if we prevent a high percentage of runners from scoring.

We call this segment the lab because the numbers are what they are, but the key comes in how we interpret them. So, we end up running a bit of an experiment where we set up a hypothesis and test it. In this case, we would postulate that good teams plate a higher percentage of their runners and prevent a higher percentage of the other team’s runners. For our purposes, base runners can be interpreted as hits + walks + hit by pitches. Obviously, we have situations where runners also reach on errors and fielder choices, but it is usually best to keep this as simple as possible.

So, if our hypothesis is correct then the teams with the highest run differentials would also have the positive gaps in efficiency. So, we will set up our table with runs scored and runs allowed, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, and run and efficiency differential. We know that teams with higher run differentials are the better teams. Will they also have higher positive differentials in efficiency? Let’s find out.

Offensive vs. Defensive Efficiency

RunsRuns AllowedOff EffDef EffRun +/-Eff +/-
2017896700.415.367+196+.048
2018797534.395.321+263+.074
2019920640.409.378+280+.031
2020279275.403.383+4+.020
2021863658.405.356+205+.049
2022737518.382.316+219+.066
2023827698.401.363+129+.038
2024740649.377.352+91+.025
2025686665.358.365+21-.007

If you felt like the Astros were leaving a small village on base last season then your perceptions were backed up by the numbers. Their .358 efficiency rating was the worst in the World Series era. This becomes particularly acute when you look at the aggregate numbers over the time period. The pitching side saw worse years than last year, but the net result had the first negative differential in the time period.

Our hypothesis was that the best teams would have the best efficiency differential. There wasn’t a perfect correlation here because there never are in human endeavors. However, the club had four seasons with a +200 or better run differential. Three out of four of those seasons also were amongst the four best efficiency differentials. The notable exception was 2017 which saw the fourth best efficiency differential, but the fifth best run differential. That’s still pretty damn close.

The null hypothesis would suggest that efficiency is more or less dumb luck. It would be the intellectual equivalent of Lou Brown (from “Major League”) uttering, “I know he hasn’t done much against this guy, but I gotta hunch he’s due.” Serendipity is certainly a thing, but it also is not an action plan. The more intelligent fan out there would call that regression to the mean. In essence, as an analyst I have always considered intangibles to be something we haven’t figured out how to measure yet.

We used to consider clutch hitting an intangible. We used to consider pitch framing an intangible. Over time we figured out how to measure it. In short, the more you can measure the less uncertainty there is. When you can minimize the unknown you can also minimize risk. As the correlation above shows, you can’t completely eliminate it, but you can minimize it.

What do these numbers mean?

I start by looking at the hitting and pitching numbers independently. Do we see any patterns? The offensive numbers have more patterns than the pitching numbers. They simply fell off the side of the cliff the last two seasons. This is probably the main reason why the hitting coaches were jettisoned. The hope is that new voices can make them more efficient.

On the pitching side, the numbers were more scattershot. 2018 and 2022 stick out like a sore thumb in a positive sense. 2018 was the single best pitching season for any American League team since the DH was instituted in 1973 up to that point. 2022 was obviously both even better and the World Series season with the best bullpen in franchise history. The other seasons saw them give up 640 or more runs and all of them had efficiency ratings between a .352 and .383 in efficiency.

Given those parameters, the 2025 staff exists at around the midpoint. The staff loses Framber Valdez, but hopes to be better with better health and more depth. I hate to keep beating this drum, but the key to the season will come at the plate. The aggregate in the time period for offensive efficiency was .394. That seems like a tall order to get to, but if the team can get back to a ,375 efficiency then that would have been 718 runs scored with the same number of base runners. That is an extra 32 runs on the season. Most sabermetricians look at ten runs as being the win mark, So, that’s an extra three wins. The Astros win the AL West with three wins. That’s especially true if one of them comes against the Mariners. Obviously, it’s a lot easier said than done. Ultimately, we are simply explaining something mathematically that we see with our own eyes and feel emotionally. Will the Astros get back on the right side of the efficiency battle? What do you think?