Category: MLB

Prior to the season, the Rochester Red Wings, the Nats AAA affiliate, got a lot of hype. Their lineup featured the likes of Dylan Crews, Harry Ford, Abimelec Ortiz, Robert Hassell III, and Christian Franklin. Former second round pick Yohandy Morales got lost in the shuffle a bit, but he has been the Red Wings best hitter so far this season.

Morales is a noteworthy prospect in his own right. Back in 2023, he was the Nats second round pick out of the University of Miami, and received a $2.6 million signing bonus. Since becoming a pro, Morales has been solid, but not spectacular. In his two full seasons as a pro, he posted OPS marks of .784 and .769. Entering this season, he was still a notable prospect, but had lost a little bit of shine.

This year he is regaining that stock. Morales is hitting .330 with a .917 OPS in 31 AAA games. The 24 year old has been red hot in his last 18 games, hitting over .400 with 4 home runs. Morales splits his time between third and first base, two positions where the Nats have not been especially productive. With how he is hitting, Morales could get called up before too long.

Yohandy Morales’ best attribute is that he absolutely hits the snot out of the ball. His average exit velocity is just under 92 MPH, which is very good. Morales’ 90th percentile exit velocity, a good measure for raw power, is 108.2 MPH, which ranks in the 95th percentile of AAA hitters. His max exit velocity of 113.1 MPH is also elite. Morales is a hard hit machine, and that allows him to get a lot of hits despite having some swing and miss issues.

Right now, Morales’ BABIP is .426, which is an unsustainable number. However, he is naturally going to be a guy who runs a high batting average on balls in play due to his exit velocities and the fact he hits a lot of ground balls and low liners. His career BABIP in the minors is .379. This allows Morales to hit for average despite striking out over 25% of the time.

However, those ground balls are part of what makes me nervous about Morales’ profile. While he is mashing right now, I wonder how he will translate to the big leagues. Not many MLB hitters have success with a high strikeout rate, a high ground ball rate and a high chase rate. Even this year, Morales is hitting the ball on the ground 51.4% of the time and striking out 26.1% of the time. 

I have a feeling that there will be a serious learning curve for Morales once he hits the big leagues. Better pitchers will exploit these flaws in his game and not as many of his ground balls will find holes. With how he is performing though, he deserves to get a chance at some point though.

This season Morales has actually spent most of his time at third base, which is interesting. In the previous two seasons, Morales has spent more time at first than third, but that has changed this year. Some of that is likely due to playing with Abimelec Ortiz, but it is still something worth noting. 

With Brady House struggling on both sides of the ball, there could be a path to playing time for Morales if he keeps this up. He is no longer one of the sexy new toys in the Nats system, so he is going to have to bang down the door if he wants to get to the big leagues. That is exactly what he is doing right now.

Right now, he is the 28th ranked prospect in the system, and has slowly been falling down the ranks the last couple years. Between his warts at the plate and his questionable defensive profile, there are some serious questions about Morales’ game.

For him to reach his ceiling, he is going to have to hit the ball in the air more. He hits the ball hard enough to be a big power guy, but those home run totals have never popped due to his batted ball profile. Morales has only hit 27 homers in over 1,000 minor league at bats. 

I still have plenty of unanswered questions about Morales. Can he play third base at a big league level? What will the strikeout numbers look like in the big leagues? Can his Babip stay super high in the MLB and will he tap into his power? However, with the way he is hitting, Yohandy Morales has earned the opportunity to answer some of these questions one way or the other. He deserves a call up if he keeps hitting like this and I am curious to see how he does when he gets the call.

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

The 2026 Boston Red Sox nightmare rolls on tonight with a trip to the Detroit Tigers, and Tarik Skubal is primed to add to the misery.

At 13-21, Boston is rock bottom in the AL East, and my Red Sox vs Tigers predictions signal home cooking for Detroit here, behind a dominant Skubal start.

Read on for my free MLB picks for Monday, May 4. 

Who will win Red Sox vs Tigers today: Tigers (-191)

The Detroit Tigers have issues to resolve on the road, but they’ve been a different animal at Comerica Park through the first six weeks of the season. Boasting a 12-3 mark at home, Detroit is understandably favored here against a Boston Red Sox squad that’s lost four of its past five contests.

The Tigers have a big edge in tonight’s pitching matchup, as Tarik Skubal faces fellow lefty Payton Tolle — and the hosts are 3-1 in their ace’s last four starts.

There’s also the benefit of having seen Skubal rip through this Boston lineup last month, racking up 10 strikeouts.

COVERS INTEL: The Red Sox have lost each of Tolle’s last five outings, and he’s leaked 2+ runs inside the first three innings in three of his past four appearances.

Red Sox vs Tigers Over/Under pick: Under 7 (-120)

With the Under hitting in five of Detroit’s last six games, I’m going back to the well again today and picking a low-scoring battle, especially as Boston has scored just eight runs across its past five contests.

Though Tolle is a bit of a wildcard, having logged five career starts, he’s only allowed six hits in his two 2026 outings. Meanwhile, you know what to expect from Skubal, who enters with a 2.70 ERA and should feast on the Red Sox's struggling lineup.

It's also worth noting that the Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams.

Red Sox vs Tigers odds

• Moneyline: Red Sox +200 | Tigers -186
• Run line: Red Sox +1.5 (-140) | Tigers -1.5 (+120)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Red Sox vs Tigers trend

The Red Sox are 7-11 on the road this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Tigers.

How to watch Red Sox vs Tigers and game info

Red Sox vs Tigers latest injuries

Red Sox vs Tigers weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Fifteen days ago, the home clubhouse inside Daikin Park was quiet. Trying to avoid a sweep at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals, the Astros rallied for three runs in the eighth inning, only to lose in the tenth.

At the time, Houston was 8-15 with a 6.11 team ERA and what felt like an entire roster on the injured list. They were in a free fall.

15 days later later, that free fall appears to be over.

The Astros have gone 6-6 in their last 12 games, nine of which have come on the road. They took two of three in Cleveland before dropping two of three to the Yankees, then rebounded after losing the first two in Baltimore, falling to a season-worst nine games below .500, to win three of their next four, capped by Sunday’s extra-inning victory in Boston.

How has the team stabilized during this 12-game stretch? A pitching staff that once looked depleted, seemingly losing an arm to the injured list every day, has been merely below average as it gets healthier.

Houston’s 5.06 team ERA over the last 12 games ranks 23rd in baseball. That’s not good, and not where they want to be in September, but it is progress. So is the improvement from Mike Burrows and Bryan Abreu, with the latter tossing two scoreless innings on Sunday at Fenway.

The emergence of Spencer Arrighetti, along with three solid outings from Peter Lambert, has also provided a boost.

The Astros’ pitching staff is still far from whole, but it is trending in the right direction. Tatsuya Imai is set to make his second rehab start this week with Triple-A Sugar Land, and Josh Hader could reclaim the closer’s role when he is eligible to return from the injured list on May 24. Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier may also be back sometime in June.

Two years ago, the Astros went 15-14 in May after a 9-19 start in March and April. That set the stage for a 17-8 June and an AL West title.

The key to climbing out of an early-season hole isn’t doing it overnight, it’s stopping the digging in the first place.

It’s too early to tell if the Astros have stopped digging or merely taken a break from doing so, but a six-game stretch against the Dodgers and Reds could provide an answer. 

Baseball history isn’t predictive so much as it’s instructive. Even if batters aren’t hitting at the same rate as decades before, we can still know that hitters who live in the .190-.220 range are probably not very good at that skill. Pitchers with a 5.00 ERA are not good pitchers. And the same can be said about wins and losses, especially the Giants’ few wins and many losses.

If a team doesn’t win very many games, that team isn’t very good. And if a team loses a lot of games early on, the chances of them recovering to have at least a winning season — to say nothing of sneaking into the postseason — are slim. There’s history and then there’s just the game being the game and the Giants have demonstrated here in the early season that they are a bad team that’s probably going to be bad by season’s end.

Now, you might protest with this simple fact: there are still 128 games to go! A lot of baseball left! Anything can happen! Sure, sure. But that adage is the religious devotion angle of fandom. It’s a prayer. The eye test and the win-loss record are actually meaningful in this case because the results have been extreme. But you don’t need to look at advanced metrics or underlying metrics or even triple slash lines. The win-loss record is comprehensive.

In MLB history, 167 teams have started as season 13-21. Just 18 times (10.8%) has that team gone on to have a winning record. Five of those instances have come this century:

• 2016 Astros, 84-78
• 2015 Cleveland, 81-80
• 2013 Dodgers, 92-70 (Division Champs)
• 2007 Blue Jays, 83-79
• 2001 White Sox, 83-79

Here are all the other years when it’s happened: 1993, 1984, 1980, 1964, 1963, 1958, 1950, 1948, 1939, 1925, 1917, 1916, 1899. If you insist on being the optimism, one might be able to lob a “Hey, that just means some team here in the 2020s is due!” And maybe this kooky fan might be on to something. Still, that’s a wish and a prayer and a hope for a team basically winning the lottery.

This is only the third time in franchise history that the Giants have started 13-21. The first time it happened was in 1950, which is one of the years listed above. Those 1950 Giants, led by Eddie Stanky, Al Dark, Hank Thompson, Monte Irvin, Larry Jansen, and Sal Maglie were actually 10-20 through their first 30, then went 76-48 the rest of the way which included 9-,7-,6-, and 5-game winning streaks. That 9-game winning streak was shortly after the All-Star break and was broken up by a single loss that then led into a 6-game winning streak; so, they had a run where they won 15 of 16 on top of the other long winning streaks. The 2026 Giants will need results very similar to that, even if the 1950 team wound up in 3rd place for all that winning. 84-86 wins might be enough to back in as the third Wild Card. By the way, the other Giants team to start 13-21 was the 1984 team, which wound up 66-96.

But 13-21 is just one record tested against history. Is it the case that there are actually more examples of success if we go in either direction by a single loss? You know, could do some Hollywood accounting and say that 13-21 is basically the same thing as 14-20 and find a rich vein of fun historical turnarounds to compare the Giants to instead? Let’s be as desperate as Buster Posey and Zack Minasian and try it.

210 times have teams started 14-20 in MLB history. 40 (19%) have wound up .500 or better. There are a lot of recent examples in this bunch:

• 2024 Diamondbacks. 89-73 (missed Wild Card due to tiebreaker with Atlanta)
• 2023 Reds, 82-80
• 2022 Orioles, 83-79
• 2019 Nationals, 93-69 (World Champions)
• 2016 Yankees, 84-78 (this was the year they were deadline sellers)
• 2014 Pirates, 88-74 (NL Wild Card) — ahem
• 2011 Brewers, 96-66 (Division Champs)
• 2010 White Sox, 88-74 (the Yankees won 95 games that year to be the AL Wild Card)
• 2009 Rockies, 92-70 (Wild Card)
• 2007 Rockies, 90-73 (NL Pennant)
• 2006 Angels, 89-73 (the Tigers won 95 games that year to be the AL Wild Card)
• 2005 A’s, 88-74 (the Red Sox won 95 games that year to be the AL Wild Card)
• 2002 Astros, 84-78
• 2001 Mets, 82-80

So, it’s this record (and probably better) that has stuck in the stubbornly optimistic fan’s mind all these years. Yes, there is a degree to which the bad can be overcome. In Giants history, four teams have started 14-20, but only one of them wound up with a winning record: the 1990 Giants ended the season 85-77 after a 14-20 start. On the other hand, the 100-loss 1985 team started with this record and were 48-80 the rest of the way.

Hmm, maybe a worse record has some secret history of success hidden away in there aching to be compared to? Let’s take a look at 12-22 teams. That’s happened 110 times. This is the Mets record right now, by the way.

Just 7 times (6.4%) has that terrible start turned into a winning record by season’s end. The 2005 Astros (89-73) won the National League pennant before running into Scott Podsednik and the White Sox in the World Series. The 1989 Blue Jays (89-73) won the AL East, the 2024 Astros (88-73) won the AL West, and the 1974 Pirates (88-74) won the NL Central. The rest: 1996 Red Sox (85-77), 1988 Padres (83-78), and 1986 Reds (86-76).

Just 4 times in 70 instances (5.7%) has a team started 11-23 and ended up with a winning record. The 1914 Boston Braves won the World Series after finishing 94-59. The most recent occurrence was in 1973, when the Cardinals finished 81-81. The 1965 Pirates are the only team to start 10 and 24 and finish with a winning record (90-72). No team lost 25 of their first 34 and came out of the season with more wins than losses.

Okay, but what about that other adage? The one that says you should take the first 40 games to evaluate the team you have, then the next 40 to acquire the players you need and then the next 40 games to make a run and the final 40 games to either prepare for the postseason or evaluate for next year? In that scenario, this would be the deciding week that could determine the fate of the 2026 Giants or at least how they might approach the trade deadline… right? Sure, they could sweep and wind up 19-21 and they’d undeniably be right back in the race, but isn’t 4-2 more realistic as the absolute limit of what’s possible with this team at the moment? In that case, they’re 17-23. What does history say about that?

39 out of 202 (19.3%) instances of 17-23 have been the basis for winning records. The last time it happened was in 2022, when the Mariners were a Wild Card with a 90-72 record. Before that, it was 2015, when the Rangers won the AL West with an 88-74 record. Those 2014 Pirates pop up here again, as do the 2013 Dodgers. The 2011 Dbacks won the NL West at 94-68 after a 17-23 start. The 2007 Rockies had this same record, too.

So, if you’re trying to be one of those “recover from a bad start teams” but you can’t be of the 14-20 variety, here’s the 17-23 pathway. To get there, the Giants will need to win this homestand. Plausible, but at the same time, hard to imagine. And, in the history of the franchise, a bad omen. The Farhan Zaidi era is lousy with 17-23s: 2019 (which ended 77-85), 2023 (80-82), 2024 (79-83). This was their specific brand of underperformance. In team history, only the 1982 team turned it around after a 17-23 start. They wound up 87-75. The three other instances not yet mentioned: 1977 (75-87), 1980 (75-86), and 2008 (72-90).

Look, it’s no fun knowing that the season is “over” at the beginning of May, but that’s where we Giants fans find ourselves here. We’re rooting for a team that is not dissimilar from the teams we’ve seen for around the past decade. Maybe some of the details are different, but the story is still the same. But maybe you find this hard to believe or simply don’t want to believe it. I have not really insisted that you change your mind here. I didn’t even research this post thinking I was going to hunt for data that supported only my position. I had an open mind and, admittedly, a little bit of hope because it’s still early in the season. And yet, there are facts to face: the history of the game tells us the Giants are cooked, washed, chopped, squashed, negated, irrelevant, and/or doomed.

Bummer.

The Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs are slated to go toe to toe for the first time in 2026 on Monday night in Wrigley Field, and as is so often the case during spring games there is inclement weather in the forecast.

As a result, the originally scheduled start time has been bumped up by half an hour. The game was originally scheduled to have first pitch chucked at 6:40 PM CT (7:40 PM ET), and now that’s set for 6:10 PM CT (7:10 PM ET). MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon helped relay the news.

Bleed Cubbie Blue pointed out that if you have tickets in the MLB Ballpark app, the start time has been automatically updated.

Though the Reds have yet to announce the official roster move, Chase Petty is listed as tonight’s starter at Reds.com opposite Edward Cabrera of the Cubs. It will be Petty’s 2026 MLB debut when he is officially recalled, with hopes that the struggles he went through as just a 22 year old at the big league level last season have been put in the rearview mirror.

No surprise here, as the Detroit Tigers’ rookie phenom was a candidate for league MVP in March and April. He is second place to Aaron Judge in the American League in Baseball Reference’s rWAR with 2.1 wins above replacement and currently tracking toward a potential 9 WAR season in his major league debut. He’s made it look so easy that we’re already acclimated to quiet games where he goes 1 for 3 with an RBI and a walk as just his baseline day at the park. The Reds’ Sal Stewart is a heck of a young hitter as well, and he took home the award in the National League.

McGonigle is currently hitting .315/.407/.477 for a 149 wRC+ and unlike just about all the names above him on various offensive leaderboards, he’s playing a sound shortstop day in and day out rather than bat first positions like corner outfield or first base. He holds a 12.7 percent strikeout rate and a 12.7 percent walk rate. Only Yordan Alvarez and Chase DeLauter have lower strikout rates as well as a higher walk rate in the whole league.

There are also signs that McGonigle has been a little unlucky as we near the season’s quarter pole. He holds a stellar .394 weight on-base average (wOBA), but Statcast says he should be at .401 based on his batted ball data. He’s slugging a heathy .477 but expected slugging says he should be slugging .535 and we have seen quite a bit of chilly, wet weather to start the year. Once it’s hot and low humidity, there’s a good likelihood that McGonigle has plenty more in the tank than we’ve seen already. On the other end, his expected batting average is .297 instead of the .315 he’s currently rocking, but we’ll happily trade a few singles for a few more home runs when he’s ready.

The best part of this, or at least the part that I was less sure about coming into the season, is that McGonigle is both playing a solid shortstop, and showing even a bit better speed than he did last year.

Perhaps the early season ankle injury in 2025 lingered a bit, or at least kept him less willing to push it for part of last year. His sprint speed is holding well above average, and we’ve seen him post some elite home to first times when he’s really needed to beat feet.

Defensively he’s a plus 2 in defensive runs saved at both shortstop and third base, and a minus 2 by Statcast’s Outs Above Average (OAA). Defensive metrics are still pretty variable this time a year, but we can at least confidently say that McGonigle is playing an average shortstop, confounding a lot of scouts who were pretty down on his ability to handle the position last year.

Most of this goes without saying if you’re watching the Detroit Tigers every night. There’s nothing flukey going on at all. Kevin McGonigle is already one of the best pure hitters in baseball, and he’s got a lot more home run power than he’s shown early on. All signs suggest that this is just a starting point for the 21-year-old as he leads the AL Rookie of the Year race, but is also making a convincing case as a possible MVP candidate. All this as a 21-year-old who will finally graduate from prospect status with his next at-bat tonight against the Boston Red Sox. He will have good competition the rest of the way from Guardians rookies Chase DeLauter and Parker Messick, as well as White Sox slugger Munetaka Murakami.

At some point perhaps we’ll see a little slump, but his approach, swing, and elite hand-eye coordination says that even those little slumps will just be blips on the radar as Kevin McGonigle holds at cruising altitude as an elite hitter, and looks to continue higher in the power department.

Congratulations to him on being named Rookie of the Month in the American League. Only five more months to go for a clean sweep.

There is a forecast of rain and storms sometime late this evening in Chicago.

As a result, the start time for the Cubs vs. Reds game scheduled for 6:40 p.m. CT has been moved up 30 minutes and will instead begin at 6:10 p.m. CT.

If you have tickets to tonight’s game, they should have already been automatically updated in the MLB Ballpark app (mine were). Gates at Wrigley Field will open 90 minutes to first pitch, or 4:40 p.m. CT.

Today’s BCB game preview will post at 4 p.m. CT.

Good move by the Cubs in trying to stay ahead of tonight’s incoming weather. Hopefully the 30 minutes will allow the game to be completed before storms hit.

The Twins managed to finish the week with a win, splitting a four-game series with the reigning AL Pennant winner, the Toronto Blue Jays. Unfortunately, both Joe Ryan, Cole Sands, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Walker Jenkins were the new additions to the injury report this week. There had been encouraging signs from the oft-injured Jenkins, as he was healthy from Opening Day in St. Paul, slashing .256/.396/.389 in 25 games. However, he ran into a wall this past weekend and looks to be out for the time being. With regards to Ryan, he was pulled from his start yesterday with elbow soreness after pitching to two batters. He underwent an MRI, but no further news yet. The Twins have fallen to the worst team in the AL Central after a good week from the Kansas City Royals, but this is shaping up to be exactly the season Twins fans were expecting.

The Past Week on Twinkie Town:

• Check out The Feed, where you can add your discussions about the Twins!
• We’re starting a new segment called Daily Questions! Provide your opinion on the Twins and debate with the community!
• Game threads and recaps are back! Commiserate with your fellow fans as we experience the season together.
• Zach Koenig bangs the “it can always be worse” drum as he looks back at the 2016 Twins team.

Elsewhere in Twins Territory:

• Dan Hayes at The Athletic checks in on Tom Pohlad one month into his first season as the Twins’ controlling owner.
• Neal Justin at the Star Tribune reviews the new musical about Joe Mauer at the Hopkins Center for the Arts.
• Lou Hennessy at Zone Coverage offers a few more bargain bin options for the Twins’ bullpen.
• There were signs of life from the bullpen yesterday, with Andrew Morris and Taylor Rogers leading the way.

In the World of Baseball:

• Nothing has really changed at the top of the American League, with the Yankees, Rays, and A’s leading the way, but the bottom has shuffled quite a bit, with the Angels and Twins joining the bottom five teams.
• Atlanta has a nice 2.5-game cushion at the top of the National League, and the Mets and Phillies have strung together a few wins after dealing with their double-digit losing streaks.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have been a nice revelation this season, and on Saturday, they shellacked the Reds and managed to make history by having every hitter in the lineup hit an RBI.
• Rob Thomson was fired by the Phillies after a 9-19 start. ESPN reported that Phillies POBO Dave Dombrowski had offered the opening to the recently-fired Alex Cora prior to letting go of Thomson, but ultimately Cora declined, and the Phillies appointed Don Mattingly as interim manager.
• Jay Jaffe at Fangraphs looks at how offense has changed with the new ABS challenge system.

The Mariners stunk it up real bad at home against the Royals and now have to face one of baseball’s hottest teams in the Atlanta Braves. Should be fine, right? 

Both of these teams are banged up pretty badly so we might as well do an injury roundup for both teams:

The Mariners will remain without Brendan Donovan for the series, although he’s set to begin a rehab assignment this week and will hopefully join the team this weekend in Chicago. Victor Robles is also nearing a return, but likely not for this series as he’s just started rehabbing in Tacoma. Cal Raleigh remains day-to-day with side tightness. The Mariners will also be missing setup man Matt Brash for a while longer as he deals with lat inflammation.

For Atlanta, they recently put Ronald Acuña Jr. on the 10-day IL with a hamstring strain. As obliques and lats stalk the Mariners, leg injuries seem to the the Braves’ běte noir; Michael Harris Jr. also has a balky quad and will likely be limited to DH duties during this series. However, that creates a logjam with catcher Sean Murphy, who will return this series after off-season hip labrum surgery and will also need to be limited to DH duties. Ha-Seong Kim has just begun a rehab assignment and won’t make the trip to Seattle. Spencer Strider returned from the IL to make his first start of the year on Sunday, but was battered in Coors Field, leading to a heavy bullpen day on Sunday. Atlanta is also currently without their closer Raisel Iglesias, albeit a less bitter pill thanks to their signing of former Padres bullpen ace Robert Suarez this winter — though it sounds like Iglesias will be activated off the IL on Tuesday as soon as he’s eligible. That’s all compounded by Atlanta missing four of its potential rotation arms due to major surgery this spring or last fall, with AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep, Joey Wentz, and Spencer Schwellenbach all sidelined still for months to come.

All those absences and a few more from their bullpen depth have left Atlanta with a pathway to victory forged in prodigious offense outlays. The Team of the South spent several years as the most viable peer on paper to the Los Angeles Dodgers, boasting a blend of stellar players from their internal development and savvy external acquisitions, with extensions signed on their core players well below market rate allowing them to pay far less than the performance they’ve received would suggest. This year, their glovework in particular has helped them buoy a beleaguered rotation, with Gold Glovers at shortstop, first base, and even on the mound in Chris Sale, alongside strong defenders around the outfield.

Perplexing at the time and blessed in hindsight, Houston traded away Mauricio Dubón to Atlanta for light-hitting infielder Nick Allen this winter. The cost-saving move also saved the Astros from the indignity of paying a good player, allowing Dubón to slot into a roster so well I had to double-check he’d not been a Brave before. With Acuña out, Seattle gets a reprieve in the slightest degree, but he’s been a more modest engine for the Atlanta offense. Matt Olson and Ozzie Albies are longtime stalwarts, albeit Albies having a scalding hot opening to the year. Drake Baldwin and Michael Harris II look like their Rookie of the Year (or RoY-caliber) selves. Harris has been nursing a quad injury, so he’ll cede defensive ground to the speedy-but-thumpless White. Hotlanta is slightly more vulnerable as such, but it’s a bit like saying fighting a leopard in the daylight is easy compared to doing so at night.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Due to all the injuries the Braves have suffered in their starting rotation, JR Ritchie made his major league debut a little ahead of schedule. A 2022 first round pick out of Bainbridge High School, he quickly bounced back from a serious arm injury in ‘23 and jumped through Atlanta’s farm system. None of his skills truly stand out, but the sum of the whole package is an above average pitcher. His command is good enough, his fastballs have decent enough shape, and he has a deep enough repertoire to work through a lineup a couple of times. He won’t be dominant, but he’s good enough to hold down a spot towards the back of a rotation.

Bryce Elder has been a surprising stabilizing force in the Braves rotation. An All-Star back in 2023, he’s really struggled over the last two years, putting up a combined 5.59 ERA and a 4.55 FIP in ‘24 and ‘25. He’s made some subtle tweaks to his pitch arsenal and has looked solid across his first seven starts of this season. He added a cutter to his mix, and even though the pitch doesn’t really stand out, it has allowed him to cut back on the usage of his sinker. He’s now throwing his slider, his best pitch, as his primary pitch and increased the usage of his four-seamer as well. The results have been fantastic even if the underlying peripherals aren’t as impressed with his skills. Still, it’s vastly improved over his ugly performance from the last two years; that’s all the Braves needed at this point in the season.

Grant Holmes made the leap into the big leagues back in 2024 after a long and winding minor league career. The key to his late-career breakout was a revamped slider that helped him boost his strikeout rates up into the 24–25% range. An elbow injury affected his command last year and his results slid a little and he’s continued to struggle to start this season. He’s got a deep repertoire to work with, though the rest of his pitches are merely average at best. The slider is devastating, however, returning a whiff rate approaching 50% this year. 

The Big Picture:

Seattle’s embarrassing sweep – The Big P-Unit – at the hands of the Royals was another masterclass in what’s ailed these M’s. One-run and close losses with meat left on the bone. And yet, it lost them a whopping single game of positioning against the Athletics and Rangers. They saw their faces rubbed in the mud by the joint division leaders of the AL Central, the Guardians and Tigers respectively. The Lastros are no more, having sludged their way out of the sewer, taking two out of three from the similarly moribund Red Sox. Anaheim is in free-fall, dropping two of three to the Mets and having lost 12 of their last 14 games since their 11-10 start.

Happy Monday.

So there is a little bit of good news, Louis Varland was named AL reliever of the month. He pitched a bunch, 16 innings, 0.56 ERA, 1.0 WAR, 4 saves. Batters hit .200/.277/.254 against him.

We are pretty lucky to have him, I don’t know who would be closing games for us without him. Maybe they continue this way all season, Hoffman in a setup role, which seems to be going fine and Varland in the closer role. Or they could mix and match depending on who they want to have different guys face.

Tyler Rogers, Braydon Fisher, Spencer Miles and Joe Mantiply are all pitching well.

And Hoffman has a 3.38 ERA in his 6 games, giving up a run in each of two games, with 1 walk and 8 strikeouts in in the 5.1 innings. It’s a start.

The stuff between John Schneider and Tyler Heineman, in yesterday’s game, was weird. If John had such a problem with the way Heineman was playing, why didn’t he pinch hit for him in that spot. I get the feeling that John was mad at himself for not pinch hitting. Which is fair, I was kind of mad at him for not pinch hitting.

I don’t like managers being that public with their dislike of what a player is doing. I think things like that should be private. And, beyond that, Schneider knows what Heineman is. I mean, Schneider was the same sort of player, good glove/bad bat. If he doesn’t like Heineman’s play, why put him in the lineup. Why not talk to the front office about finding a better option.

Despite last years play, or at least the play from the first half of last year, Heineman is not a hitter. Expecting him to be one is not going to end well.

And, if John is going to start taking guys out of the lineup for a bad at bat, we are going to be forfeiting a lot of games.

John Sterling passed away at 87.

I’ll admit that I wasn’t a fan. One year, when we were on holiday, I ended up listening to him call some Yankees/Blue Jays games and I hated that he mispronounced some player’s names, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion others. And, it bothered me. I mean Bautista was one of the top players in the league. You should be able to get that one right, if your job is to be a radio announcer.

But, he had the job a long time. Called 5420 regular season games, 5,060 consecutive games. Yankees’ fans liked him. He was enthusiastic. He was different. Different is a good thing, he wasn’t boring.

Maybe I’d have liked him better if he didn’t work for the godless Yankees.

Addison Barger hit a home run in his first rehab start, and took a walk, with a ground out as well. I think the plan is for him to play three rehab games.

Addison didn’t have a great start to the season, with 1 hit in 23 PA. So, expecting him to be great as soon as he comes back might be a little hopeful, but it will be good to have him back.

Tonight’s game is a 6:30 start. Nick Martinez starts for the Rays. Eric Lauer will…..pitch at some point. He wasn’t happy with the opener thing last time against. But then, you want change, pitch better. Lauer has a 6.00 ERA in 27 innings this year. Pitch well, and he’ll likely get to be the starter next time around. Pitch crappy, and this if the best you can hope for.

As has been speculated since his acquisition, and propitiated by the season ending hip surgery required by Ryan Pepiot, the Rays have formally started the transition of Griffin Jax to a starting role, and in doing so Jax has reintroduced his cutter. It’s already helping him handle left-handed hitters more effectively, and should help the transition to starting as well.

Jax entered the 2026 season projected toward the top of the Rays bullpen depth chart, particularly given his success in a relief role after being converted by the Twins, but when the season began it was a struggle for Jax to fend off lefties.

Prior to his appearance on 4/26/2026, across the first 25 left-handed batters faced, Jax issued four walks, struck out five, allowed six hits, and gave up two home runs – good for a 10.80 ERA and 8.73 FIP. The sample is small, but the underlying indicators weren’t encouraging either: below-average strike rates, elevated hard contact, and a lack of swing-and-miss.

Since reintroducing the cutter as he has transitions to a starting role, the results have began to trend in a more positive direction against lefties. Jax has gone from not using his cutter at all against lefties to using it 16.7% of the time across his last two outings.

Jax’s cutter, like most cutters, serves as a useful weapon against opposite-handed hitters. Its movement allows it to get in on the hands of lefties, often inducing weaker contact. As a “bridge” pitch, it sits between fastballs and breaking balls in both velocity and movement. That typically limits its swing-and-miss upside, but it plays an important role in sequencing while giving him a pitch that he can land for strikes.

In Jax’s case, the cutter helps support his best pitch: the sweeper.

League-wide trends suggest hitters have become more comfortable against sweepers, particularly from right-handed pitchers. Since Jax entered the league in 2021, performance against sweepers has gradually improved:

While 2026 is still a small sample, the broader trend is clear: hitters are handling sweepers better than they did a few years ago. Increased exposure and tools like Trajekt machines have likely contributed to that adjustment.

For a pitcher like Jax, whose profile is heavily built around a once-outlier breaking ball, adaptation becomes necessary.

That’s where the cutter comes in.

Against right-handed hitters, Jax can still lean heavily on his fastball-sweeper combination. But against lefties, he needed a more effective plan.

The cutter helps create that plan by pairing with his changeup. Both pitches operate in the lower-90s velocity band, but with different movement profiles. There are roughly 17 inches of horizontal separation between the cutter and changeup – less than the gap between his changeup and sweeper, which exceeds 27 inches.

While it might seem like a smaller difference in movement and velocity might hinder his effectiveness, it actually works in Jax’s favor by improving how well the pitches tunnel out of the same window.

Cutter

Changeup

The result is a more cohesive approach against left-handed hitters: two pitches that look similar early, diverge late, and disrupt timing in different ways. https://twitter.com/raysmetrics/status/2048791611367133613?s=46

Jax can still mix in his sweeper to lefties as a third look, particularly deeper into outings, but it no longer needs to carry the load against them.

There’s an inherent tradeoff here. Jax is increasing usage of a lesser pitch at the expense of his best one, and most pitch models won’t love that. But pitching isn’t just about maximizing individual pitch quality; it’s about disrupting timing and forcing uncomfortable decisions. The league is better equipped to handle sweepers from right-handed pitchers than it was a few years ago, so adjusting to that reality is part of staying effective.

Jax appears to be making that adjustment, and the early returns are encouraging.

If this approach holds, we could see Jax settle into something like a three-pitch mix against lefties: four-seamer, changeup, and cutter. Each of these could be used at relatively similar rates with occasional breaking balls mixed in. Against righties, a more traditional fastball-sweeper approach should remain intact while he occasional dips into his arsenal for a different look.

It’s still early, but this is the kind of in-season adjustment that can meaningfully change a pitcher’s trajectory. Jax’s ability to adapt like this will be key to sustaining the success he’s shown in the past regardless of whether he continues to get stretched out to start or moves back into high leverage in the bullpen.

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

The San Diego Padres visit the San Francisco Giants for a three-game NL West showdown at Oracle Park beginning Monday, May 4.

My top Padres vs. Giants predictions and MLB picks are calling for San Fran to lose a seventh consecutive game tonight.

Who will win Padres vs Giants today: Padres moneyline (-130)

The San Francisco Giants are last in baseball in wOBA against right-handed pitchers and are turning to Trevor McDonald for his first start of the season Monday.

McDonald sports a worrisome 5.40 ERA and 6.24 xFIP across 15 minor-league innings with Triple A Sacramento, while the San Diego Padres have sneaky righty Randy Vasquez on the bump.

While Vasquez has had some hiccups, it’s hard to argue with his 2.94 ERA and 3.76 xFIP while holding opponents to a .665 OPS through six starts.

COVERS INTEL: A large part of San Diego Padres starter Randy Vasquez’s early success is his 12.4 swinging-strike percentage checking in miles above his 6.7% mark from 2025.

Padres vs Giants Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-132)

The Giants aren’t the only team struggling against righties, with the Friars ranking 22nd in wOBA and also playing to the Under in 29 of their past 50 road games (+7.35 Units / 13% ROI).

Additionally, San Fran has only scored 2.5 runs per game while losing eight of its past 10, and San Diego has scored just 2.6 per during its active 4-1 slump.

Padres vs Giants odds

• Moneyline: Padres -135 | Giants +115
• Run line: Padres -1.5 (+120) | Giants +1.5 (-140)
• Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)

Padres vs Giants trend

The Padres have won 31 of their last 50 games (+8.85 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Giants.

How to watch Padres vs Giants and game info

Padres vs Giants latest injuries

Padres vs Giants weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Tacoma Rainiers

The Rainiers dropped the series 4-2 this week, unfortunately unable to land the knockout punch in several close games this series. They stand at 16-17 on the season, good for fourth in their division.

The Colt report this week is a tough one, unfortunately. Three walks, three hits, ten punchouts. He did hit a homer and a triple, but there’s not nearly enough production outside of that to spin this week positively. Hopefully a quick bounce back is inbound.

With the major league bullpen in rough shape right now, there’s a few names in Tacoma that might end up becoming pertinent in the coming weeks. Robinson Ortiz, a lefty, has decent stuff, but walks a lot of people. Domingo Gonzalez is kind of the opposite, with lesser raw stuff but much better command. Yosver Zulueta, probably the best of the three, has major velocity on his sinker and big league experience in the past. All three are already on the 40 man roster and could be options should the big leagues come calling.

Arkansas Travelers

The Travs are hot right now! Securing a 5-1 series win over Wichita, the Travs have dug themselves out of the basement and now find themselves with a 15-12 record, a mark good for 3rd in their division. The offense has really picked things up as of late, and the stars they’ve needed desperately all season are beginning to look like their usual selves. It’s been a treat to watch.

Kade Anderson continues to dazzle, working another 5.2 innings of shutout ball in a Wichita stadium that’s one of the least pitcher-friendly in the Texas League. Allowing just four hits and no walks, Anderson struck out eight batters in Friday night’s contest, pushing his season total to 38 across just 24.1 innings. Whether the M’s see merit in sending him to Triple-A or not seems like the final frontier in his development track; it’s not something they typically do with their premium starting pitching prospects, but Double-A is posing little challenge to Anderson at present and may ultimately force the M’s to make him an exception. Still just 21 years old, here’s where he stands amongst other Texas League arms thus far:

ERA: 0.37 (1st)

K: 38 (1st)

BB: 4 (2nd)

WHIP: 0.70 (2nd)

BAA: .157 (2nd)

Not too bad for your first taste of professional baseball.

I encourage you to check out the article we put out about Lazaro Montes this past weekend. Since then, he managed yet another homer and raised his season OPS to .928. He’s hotter than the sun right now.

Laz wasn’t the only hitter seeing the ball well this week; Caleb Cali lit up Wichita pitching all week and is thrilled to get out of the cavernous confines of Dickey-Stephens Park. With roughly a 50/50 split between home and away thus far, Cali lays claim to a paltry OPS of .405 inside of DSP. The half that came on the road? An OPS north of 1.000. Cali has one of the starkest discrepancies of Home/Away splits I can remember seeing and should be someone to monitor; there’s a chance he gets a call up to Tacoma and is finally able to unleash the major pop he’s got with some consistency.

Everett AquaSox

The Frogs lost this week’s slate 4-2, squandering some late leads and missing plenty of opportunities to take a convincing series win. The bullpen, usually a strong suit, was shaky this week, and the uptick in offense wasn’t enough to offset the lack of pitching.

¡El Fénix está en fuego! Felnin Celesten continues to light it up at the plate and looks like the player we saw dominate the Complex League just a few years ago, spraying the ball with authority all over the ballpark. The young shortstop is slashing .457/.556/.600 over the past two weeks and has upped his stolen base count to six on the young season. Celesten has all the talent in the world and could easily be one of the best prospects in this system if he’s playing to his fullest potential. The whiffs are down, the walks are up, and he’s hitting the ball hard with consistency. It’s been a fantastic few weeks of watching him play.

Brock Moore continues to overpower Hi-A hitters. He logged three more innings this week, punching out four and walking one. He currently sits at 24 K’s through 11.1 IP this season and has just two walks, a truly unfathomable mark if you were to look at his walk totals from just a season ago. Get this man to Arkansas ASAP.

Shoutout to Brandon Eike. He was having a brutal go of things at the plate to start the season, but he’s started to really heat up as of late. He’s pushed his OPS just north of .900 and has launched five homers in his past seven contests. The K% is still untenable and will need to come down before a trip to Arkansas is on the table, but the progress has been great to see nonetheless.

Inland Empire 66ers

IE lost yet another series this week, dropping to 10-16 on the year. The pitching has had a tough time keeping games close, and though the offense is starting to pick up a bit, it hasn’t been enough to secure many wins. This team is going to benefit greatly from the draft’s injection of talent.

The Mason Peters agenda continues forward. Similarly to Anderson in Double-A, Peters has arguably been the best pitcher in the California League to start the season:

ERA: 2.25 (2nd)

K: 31 (1st)

BB: 5 (5th)

WHIP: 0.85 (2nd)

BAA: .176 (2nd)

Spinning a gem of a game on Friday night, the southpaw starter logged four innings of shutout ball, surrendering just one hit on the night and punching out six. He’s obviously been off to an incredible start thus far, but with as much room as there is to add strength to his frame, a future velocity spike that elevates his arsenal a tick or two seems more than possible, making him that much more exciting as a prospect to follow over the coming years.

Cesar Quintas is a far less heralded prospect than most names featured on our prospect roundups, but after the week he just had, it’s impossible to keep him off. A 2024 minor league Rule 5 draftee from the Giants system, Quintas played last season with the Nuts and had a good, if unremarkable season at the plate. This year, however, has been a different story. His 15 hits this week brought his season OPS up to .957, comfortably giving him the team lead and breathing new life into a player that lacked pedigree. It’s his third go of A ball, but should he maintain this level of production throughout the year, he’ll have transformed his future and firmly made himself a name to know.

The ACL Mariners have logged just one game so far, but they managed 24 runs on an astounding 21 walks. Nick Becker, Yorger Bautista, and Leandro Romero, arguably the three biggest name prospects on the roster, all were strong contributors in the win and will look to power this potent lineup all season.