Category: MLB

Hello and happy Tuesday, folks. Hope you enjoyed your holiday.

Today’s a regular day, and it’s one where our beloved Red Sox take on the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of California of the United States of North America of Planet Earth. First pitch at Fenway is scheduled for 6:45 p.m.

Here’s a question for ya, as we now sit on the brink of officially avoiding a losing season while maintaining a strong hold on a wild card spot: Where is the line between resting players ahead of postseason play and pushing for better playoff positioning?

We’re technically two games behind the Yankees as things currently stand, but that’s effectively a three-game deficit since New York holds the tiebreaker over us. Still, that’s not an insurmountable lead with just over two weeks to go in the regular season. Should the Sox put more chips on the table to contest for the top wild card seed, thus the right to host a three-game series?

As tempting as that is, the guys are probably gassed. Sure, everyone in baseball is tired after nearly 150 games, but there’s something to be said for getting fully revved up for do-or-die time, even if it means that you have to go on the road for the wild card series. Guys like Ceddy and Contreras are already on the IL, while someone such as Caleb Durbin could maybe benefit from a few extra off days.

Maybe some more consistent time off will do the clubhouse some good. On the other hand, you don’t want the guys to get rusty. On the other other hand, the schedule in front of the Sox in the coming days—paging the Angels and Royals—does not exactly feature the greatest teams the sport has ever seen. Perhaps that gives Chad Tracy a chance to get guys off of their feet. On the other other other hand, you have to respect every opponent in front of you. On the other other other other hand, Baseball Reference has us at a damn near lock to qualify for the playoffs with 17 games to go, competition be damned. On the other other other other OTHER hand, do you really want to mock the almighty Baseball Gods by tempting fate?

Well……..that’s all for me to ask and for you to answer in the comments below.

Be good to each other and go Sox.

The first four games of this pivotal stretch for the Phillies against the Atlanta Braves are over. It didn’t go quite the way Philadelphia could’ve hoped, as they were only able to split the series. They are now still four games behind the Braves with three games in Atlanta coming next weekend and 18 games remaining overall. 

As the even result may hint towards, it was a competitive series throughout. The Phillies starting pitching, particularly Aaron Nola and Jesús Luzardo, looked prepared for primetime Their offense cooled off from their previous torrid stretch, but were only outscored 12-11. The biggest problem that revealed itself was the bullpen, as the Phillies blew a three-run eighth inning lead on Sunday and allowed a 3-2 game to turn into a 5-2 deficit on Friday. The rotation has rounded into peak form, but the bullpen, especially the set-up men ahead of Jhoan Duran, still do not inspire much confidence.

The division isn’t necessarily out of reach, but it’s quickly becoming a math equation. The Phillies now have to make up four games with 18 to play, a difficult feat considering their September schedule. Luckily for the Phillies, they at least have a somewhat comfortable cushion for a Wild Card spot, even if that is not guaranteed yet. But still, this series with the Braves offered the chance for the Phillies to measure themselves against the likes of competition they will face in October after having a relatively light schedule in the month of August. Some parts of their play were encouraging while some older, familiar problems still rose their ugly head. 

So, what did we learn from this Phillies-Braves series? 

Yeah, I could’ve phrased this as a question and had the same post body anyway, but why bother when I can just make a post? After the Braves split their big series on the road against the Phillies, I have three big picture thoughts, two of which were prompted by their dramatic comeback win in Game Three.

Why is everyone, including Ronald AcuñaJr., obsessed with going the other way?

In this series, the Braves’ most common ball in play was a grounder up the middle, followed by a ball in the air hit the other way. For the Phillies, it was fly balls to center, followed with a tie between pulled and opposite-field fly balls. The Braves managed a .180 wOBA and .167 on their 19 opposite-field fly balls in the series; they managed an .809 wOBA and .665 xwOBA on their 15 pulled fly balls.

This isn’t really surprising because yes, pulling fly balls in the air is great. But, maybe target it a bit better? Here’s the pitch plot of fly balls the other way by lefty batters:

This looks okay-ish at first glance, there’s maybe one pitch that was weirdly inside-outed, and it was Matt Olson against Cristopher Sanchez. There were some elevated balls you’d hope guys would pull, but it is what it is. And then you get the right-handed batter plot:

That’s a fair bit of basically middle-ish pitches hit the other way.

On the season, the Braves are 15th in pulled fly ball rate, but seventh in the rate of hitting fly balls the other way. But this obscures a lot of inconsistency:

• Through April: 10th and 14th, respectively
• May: 26th and 4th
• June: 26th and 15th
• July: 4th and 24th
• August-onward: 17th and 1st

You get the idea. What’s the obsession with going the other way? By the way, while being first in that last bullet, the Braves have a .302 wOBA and .297 xwOBA on those balls. That’s actually ranked pretty high — their opposite-field fly balls are better than other teams’, but… those are terrible on-contact marks in general.

Acuña is an interesting case here. The first pitch of the series was a sinker a little bit away but squarely in the zone, and he hit a hard double into the right-center gap. Okay, he executed a clear plan there. The next time he got a pitch anywhere on the outer half was two PAs later, and that one turned into a hard groundout to second. He pulled a similar pitch but from a different pitcher (Alex McFarlane, his later victim) and turned it into an infield single.

In Game Two, he started stuff by pulling an outer-edge fastball from Zack Wheeler for a hard single. Then he homered off a Wheeler knee-high splitter also towards the outer half of the plate. The next outer-portion pitch he saw was a non-strike in both dimensions from Aaron Nola, a knuckle curve he dropped into right field for a double. But then, he got a hanging changeup down the middle on 2-2 from Nola and could only hit it weakly to right for a sac fly. Then, it was his homer against McFarlane. In the finale, Jesus Luzardo didn’t really throw him stuff outside he could poke; even his one fly to right came from basically an inside-out effort on a pitch inside. So, Acuña isn’t really the guy to pick on here, he’s at least wrapping his bat around pitches away from him sometimes.

Still, even he has a .320 wOBA / .227 xwOBA on balls in the air the other way since the start of August, compared to an absurd 1.053 wOBA / .877 xwOBA on pulled balls in the air in that span. I’ll keep hoping for some realignment in this regard.

Acuña did something amazing anyway

The pitch Acuña homered on was a four-seamer nearly bisected by the outer edge of the zone at 100.5 mph. Acuña got around it and pulled it into left field for a massive homer, both in terms of distance and effect on the game (and the series). This season, the highest-velocity pitch on an outer edge homered on by a right-handed batter was 98.6 mph (Pete Alonso). Acuña basically skipped two ticks relative to anyone else.

In fact, in the entire Statcast era, only one right-handed batter has homered on a pitch on the outer edge that was harder than what Acuña did on Sunday: Avisail Garcia, who took a 100.7 mph pitch from Ryne Stanek in 2017 and hit it the other way for a longball. So, there you go: Acuña turned around the hardest righty outer-edge pitch to a righty batter for a pulled homer that we know of.

This series had the Braves doing what they do best

The Braves weren’t favored to win any of these games. Two games — and in fact, the two games they lost — had some of the lowest pre-game odds the Braves have faced all season.

The Braves posted a matching .260 wOBA and xwOBA in this series. The Phillies were cut down by some poor fortune and good defense en route to a .284 wOBA and .327 xwOBA. Does that seem like it should be a series split? Okay, fine, that’s a little unfair, because wins aren’t awarded after the entire series finishes.

• Game 1 (win): Braves .303 wOBA / .269 xwOBA | Phillies .266 wOBA / .281 xwOBA. Some combination of defense and luck bails out the Braves.
• Game 2 (loss): Braves .248 / .266 | Phillies .352 / .355. Yeah, a blatant loss.
• Game 3 (win): Braves .350 / .326 | Phillies .278 / .334. A reprise of Game 1, except the Braves actually hit okay.
• Game 4 (loss): Braves .107 / .160 | Phillies .224 / .334. It’s miraculous this was a 1-0 game.

It amuses me that the Phillies compiled 0.7 more fWAR than the Braves in these four games, yet both teams won two games. But that’s par for the course. The Braves are now 85-59, and have just 73 WAR-wins based on fWAR. While there is probably some assumption that over time, a team’s record would trend closer to its WAR-wins record just due to adding extra sample that aligns… the Braves are once again defying the odds in this regard, pulling further away. There isn’t really enough time in the season for any of this to be “fixed” unless they hit basically a gigantic September collapse, and I don’t expect it to be “fixed” because the team itself is fine. It’s just… weird. And they used that weirdness to split with the Phillies.

I continue to be amazed that the Braves have avoided the bottom dropping out despite whammying themselves into stupid (stupid-bad, not stupid-good) offense after July, but it is what it is.

If this were a question post, I guess I’d ask what takeaways you had from this series split. Feel free to drop those in the comments, I guess.

Good morning.

Shawn McFarland writes that the Texas Rangers need to go on a heater in the season’s final weeks if they want to extend their season into the cooler months.

Kennedi Landry writes that Jack Leiter and Nathan Eovaldi are hoping to pitch again this month, but there probably isn’t time to ramp them back into the rotation.

McFarland notes that Robert Garcia is back as reinforcement for a bullpen that has been shaky in the middle innings over the last few weeks.

The MLB dot com folks predict the eventual Gold Glove winners with a month to go and hand Ezequiel Duran some presumptive hardware as the AL’s top utility fielder.

Have a nice day!

Meet the Mets

The Mets’ bats continued their impressive Labor Day weekend by pounding out 16 hits and scoring nine runs in a 9-4 victory over the Marlins. Jonah Tong, who was called upon for his first start of the 2026 season, earned a win by striking out seven over five innings.

Choose Your Recap: Amazin’ Avenue, MLB.com, Daily News, NY Post, Newsday, ESPN, Faith and Fear in Flushing

The Mets optioned Justin Hagenman to Triple-A to make room for Jonah Tong on the roster.

Jon Heyman explained that the Mets’ trifecta is giving the team hope that this can be a $365 million learning experience.

Abbey Mastracco wrote about ‘Beat It’ becoming Citi Field’s answer to a lost season.

On the latest This Week In Mets, Tim Britton explored how the team can better prepare for underperformance.

Around the National League East

The Phillies blanked the Braves 1-0 to earn a much-needed split in the Labor Day weekend series. Jesus Luzardo struck out 12 and earned the first complete game shutout of his career, as the game lasted just one hour and 51 minutes. Kyle Schwarber hit a solo homer in the eighth, which was the lone run.

The Nationals fell 3-2 to the Padres, which actually helped the Mets fall into a statistical tie with Washington for fourth place in the NL East.

Around Major League Baseball

The Cubs broke in to the top five in the latest MLB Power Rankings.

The MLB.com staff predicted the 2026 Gold Glove Award winners.

ESPN made some September predictions regarding the playoff race and stats leaders.

The Padres and Diamondbacks could end up deciding the final Wild Card round in the National League, and with the two clubs squaring off at Petco Park in the final weekend of the regular season, it could essentially serve as an additional playoff round.

Mike Lupica explained how Aaron Judge’s impending return could turn the tide in the Yankees’ favor. Judge was officially activated from the IL yesterday, which was an offday for the Yankees.

Shohei Ohani officially returned from a four-game injury absence, though he will focus on hitting moving forward and is unlikely to pitch again this season.

The Brewers placed Grant Anderson on the IL with right biceps inflammation and called Brandon Sproat back up.

The ‘totally different’ Blue Jays feel that they are primed for a late-season playoff push.

The Red Sox topped the Angels 5-2. Brayan Belo made his first start since June 4 for the Red Sox and picked up where he left off.

The Orioles ended their losing skid with a 6-4 win over the Guardians.

In a game that entered extra innings tied at 0-0, the Diamondbacks prevailed 5-4 in 10 innings over the Royals. Arizona’s bullpen shined in the win to help keep the D’Backs in a Wild Card spot.

The Brewers scored three in the eighth to top the Cubs 4-3, as some amazing robberies rescued the Brew Crew from the Cubbies’ late comeback attempt.

The Tigers held off the Twins 5-4. The Twins activated Joe Ryan from the IL to make the start against Detroit, and he was his vintage shelf in his comeback performance.

The Giants outlasted the Cardinals 5-4 in 11 innings.

The Dodgers doubled up the Reds 6-3.

The Athletics walked off the Blue Jays 6-5.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

I previewed the Mets’ series against the Marlins.

Linus Lawrence provided a Monday Stat Party.

This Date in Mets History

The Mets scored six runs in the seventh to come back and tie up their game against the Nationals, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis’ solo homer in the eighth put New York ahead for good on this date in 2015. The win helped New York secure a series victory in Washington DC en route to a sweep and an eventual NL East crown.

Three cheers, Yankees fans: Aaron Judge is at last coming off the injured list! The slugging superstar returns to the fold just in time for the stretch run, and not a moment too soon. The Bombers have been struggling to close the distance on the Rays in the AL East race with time running out, and the Red Sox remain hot on their trail in the Wild Card hunt. Now, which unfortunate team will be pulling into the Bronx just in time for the captain’s return?

Why, the Colorado Rockies — owners of the National League’s worst record at 55-88. Colorado has shown a bit more panache than their utterly moribund incarnation from last year, but they remain a franchise stuck deep in the cellar. They lost seven straight games, rallied to take a pair in Washington, then lost five more games consecutively before surprising the Orioles with a few plucky wins at home. They just came off a series loss in St. Louis which featured one of the more odious ump shows in recent memory.

All three games of this series will be televised on YES.

Tuesday:Cam Schlittler vs. Gabriel Hughes (7:05 p.m. EST)

This is one of the more lopsided cards you’ll see. Cam Schlittler comes into the series opener with a 2.04 ERA across 171.2 innings as he chases a Cy Young award in his first full MLB season. Rookie Gabriel Hughes has pitched to a 6.19 ERA with six losing decisions (and no wins) in his first 11 appearances in the show.

While he has been a noticeably better pitcher away from home this season, Schlittler is probably thrilled to not have to contend with the mile-high air as he tries to keep his numbers as pristine as possible. Colorado does have some dangerous bats: Hunter Goodman has socked 36 home runs this season and former Yankee farmhand TJ Rumfield has been the team’s most valuable offensive contributor.

Hughes’ numbers didn’t get truly gaudy until he gave up seven earned runs in two straight starts last month. His last time out was a marked improvement against Baltimore, as he limited the O’s to just one run on four hits in a shade under five innings.

Wednesday: Will Warren vs. Tomoyuki Sugano(7:05 p.m. EST)

Warren made just his second appearance out of the bullpen this season on Friday against the Padres, as the Yankees get him ready to fill that role in the postseason. He did well, providing 2.1 innings of hitless relief. He’ll return to the rotation against the Rockies and try to build on a solid little run he’s been on; his previous start against Boston was one of his best as a big-leaguer.

Tomoyuki Sugano came to Colorado to eat innings for an undernourished rotation. The 36-year old’s unglamorous, throwback-to-the-aughts style has allowed him to be a perfectly competent starter for the Rockies, pitching to a 5.18 ERA. He strikes out practically nobody, and issues few walks either. The Yankees saw him four times last year when he was an Oriole, to mixed results. His final two starts of that season were short losing efforts; the final score was 6-1 both times.

Thursday: Max Fried vs. Ryan Feltner(7:05 p.m. EST)

Will Warren’s aforementioned relief outing came after a strong start from Max Fried. In his second start off the IL, he held the Padres to one run on four hits, throwing 72 pitches. Aaron Boone will continue to be cautious with the lefty as the playoffs approach — don’t expect to see him push Fried deep into this game either, especially against another NL West team. His results, sparser as they are, have been better than last year — his 2.66 FIP would be a top-10 figure in baseball right next to Cam Schlittler’s 2.62 if he had enough innings to qualify.

Ryan Feltner is a tough cookie who has stuck it out through an uneven tenure in Denver. Drafted out of Ohio State in 2018 and debuting in 2021, Feltner became a rotation regular the following season. In 2023, he was struck in the head by a line drive and suffered a skull fracture which sidelined him from May to September. After a full 30-start campaign the following year, back issues knocked out most of his 2025. This year, he’s dealt with nerve inflammation, and had to tough it out through a stomach bug last week to try and prevent a sweep in Atlanta (he could not). Feltner has only managed a 5.36 ERA in 90 MLB games with the Rockies — but that’s good for 4.5 career fWAR! Yup, Colorado is just that brutal of a pitching environment.

It was just not meant to be on Monday for the Braves. Kyle Schwarber once again went deep for the only run in the game, but the story was the dominance of Jesus Luzardo during his complete game shutout against the Braves in a 1-0 win for the Phillies. Grant Holmes was outstanding once again, but the offense never could get going.

As a result, the Braves earned a series split with the Phillies. While the offense still had plenty of struggles, the kept their division lead the same. Furthermore, they earned the tiebreaker by winning the season series, essentially making the division lead five games. You have to feel that makes the weekend a success, as long as the Braves continue the momentum as the schedule remains tough over the next few weeks.

Braves News

With plenty to break down from the weekend, Mark Bowman looks at the performances of Holmes, Didier Fuentes and Ronald Acuna Jr.

Here is plenty more on the the excellent weekends from J.R. Ritchie and Connor Essenburg.

Reynaldo Lopez looks to be ready to return on Wednesday for the Braves. Furthermore, Bryce Elder is currently limited to the bullpen due to ongoing knee discomfort.

MLB News

Aaron Judge will officially return to action for the Yankees on Tuesday.

Pete Crow-Armstrong firmly has a 40-40 season in his sights as he continues to strengthen his MVP case.

Shohei Ohtani returned to the Dodgers lineup on Monday night against the Cincinnati Reds after missing four games dealing with lingering issues. He looked much more like himself that he has in a while. He very likely will not return as a pitcher this season, however.

The Dodgers are hoping that being able to just focus on his batting with help him get out of his offensive slump.

“I don’t want to say it’s day to day, but I am very curious to see how he comes out of tonight to then make the decision for tomorrow and ensuing days,” Roberts said. “We’ve put a pin in throwing and just having him focus on the hitting, the running, keeping his legs good and doing whatever it takes to help us win.”

Being that it is September 8th and there are only 18 games left in the regular season, it seems unlikely that Ohtani will pitch in the playoffs. But manager Dave Roberts has not completely ruled it out.

“That’s one part of the thought, to sort of take the pitching off of his plate and really try to let him lock in on being a hitter and get on track,” Roberts said. “Because the last couple of weeks he just hasn’t been himself in the box.”

Maddie Lee of the LA Times has more thoughts on the Dodgers’ superstar here.

Bill Plunkett of the OC Register ponders if Mookie Betts is starting his usual late season surge.

After having another summer that was not so great, just like last summer, Mookie has picked it up, with Plunkett noting in his past 29 games through Sunday, he was 35 for 114 (.307) with an .887 OPS, five home runs and 22 RBIs.

“I’ve been able to put good at-bats together, hit the ball hard consistently, and again, just try to keep on going, keep on going, and stay in the moment,” he said. “That’s the main thing. Don’t let prior at-bats dictate what’s going on right now, and don’t think about the future.”

Plunkett also covers an update on Andy Pages.

After not playing for a little over the two weeks while dealing with a left hand fracture, Pages is back to swinging the bat and is pain free.

“If it were up to him, he’d be playing tonight,” Roberts said.

“I’m actually not (surprised by his quick recovery). I think this guy has got a crazy desire and youth is a good thing. But bones still have to heal.”

Today’s Reflections

I hope you enjoyed the holiday weekend. I’m sure the baseball writers did, given the paltry number of articles written that weren’t repetitive ones about PCA’s 40th.

Obviously, Pete Crow-Armstrong joining Billy Williams as the only Chicago Cubs lefthanded hitters to hit 40 home runs in a season was the highlight of the weekend. It should have pumped up the Cubs on the road to a sweep of the Marlins, but while the team held on to win Saturday and the series, the loss Sunday highlighted the moderate success of the offense, and the lukewarm-to-poor showing of the starting pitching this weekend.

PCA became the 10th Cub in history to hit 40 home runs in a season when he hit an 85 mile per hour sweeper down the right-field line in the top of the fifth. He stood at the plate and watched at the ball screamed down the line into the right field corner to tie the game at three.

The rest of weekend wasn’t as explosive. Michael Conforto was 3-for-5 with a walk, two runs scored and a home run, which was the 200th HR of the season for the Cubs. Nico Hoerner was 4-for-8 with an RBI. Seiya Suzuki was 2-for-6 with three walks, a double and a run scored. PCA finished going 2-for-7 with a walk, three RBI and the home run.

On Saturday, Ian Happ was 2-for-4 with a walk and two RBI, while Michael Busch was 2-for-5 with a run scored and a double. And Miguel Amaya was 2-for-3 with two runs scored and a double. Sunday, Carson Kelly went 1-for-4 with a run scored, and Tyrone Taylor 1-for-3 with a double and a great defensive play.

On the pitching side, there wasn’t a whole lot of very good over the two games. Javier Assad got the recall for the Saturday start. The start wasn’t horrible. He threw 88 pitches and lasted 4.2 innings. He had allowed three hits and struck out three, but he limited the damage of five walks. To start the fifth inning, Assad allowed a single before having chalked up a strikeout and a pop-up and left with game with a 5-2 lead. Caleb Thielbar entered the game and promptly gave up a two-run home run, one of those runs charged to Assad.

A pair of relievers carried the game into the eighth, where with one out, Ryan Jeferzahn entered the game, Cubs still up, 6-5. It took him just 19 pitches to get the last five outs for his first save as a Cub and his fifth for the year.

Clay Holmes just didn’t have it on Sunday, having allowed eight runs in 4.1 innings of work in the 10-3 loss. Chris Rea pitched 2.2 innings and allowed the other two runs. The only plus? Daniel Palencia pitched a scoreless eighth inning, having allowed just a walk while he added a strikeout. However, only six of his 16 pitches were for strikes.

Complimentary Starting Pitcher Solo Home Run*

*means autoplay on, (directions to remove for Firefox and Chrome). {$} means paywall. {$} means limited views. Italics are often used on this page as sarcasm font. The powers that be have enabled real sarcasm font in the comments.

Sunday Afternoon’s Game Stories:

• Vinnie Duber (Chicago Sun-Times): Pete Crow-Armstrong is 10th Cubs hitter with 40-homer season, but Clay Holmes allows eight runs in loss. “Crow-Armstrong hit his 40th home run of the year Sunday, joining elite company in franchise history, but a Cubs team with eyes on a deep playoff run found out how slim the margin for error can be on an atypically rough day for Holmes.”

• Meghan Montemurro (Chicago Tribune {$}): Pete Crow-Armstrong hits 40th home run, adding another milestone to the Chicago Cubs star’s MVP-caliber season. “The memorable moments keep piling up in Pete Crow-Armstrong’s magical season.”

• Perla Paredes (MLB.com): PCA belts 40th homer, joining list of Cubs greats. Is 40-40 next?. ““The thought is always just be ready to hit every pitch,” Crow-Armstrong said after the Cubs’ 10-3 loss to the Marlins on Sunday at loanDepot park.“

• Elias Schuster (Chicago Cubs On SI): Pete Crow-Armstrong Joins 40 HR Club, Makes Tons More Cubs History in the Process. “After hitting 14 home runs in August alone, it was only a matter of time for Pete Crow-Armstrong.”

Saturday Night’s Game Stories:

• Meghan Montemurro (Chicago Tribune {$}): Javier Assad battles through season-high 5 walks and bullpen does enough to seal Chicago Cubs’ 6-5 win. “Even when Javier Assad doesn’t possess his best command, the right-hander finds a way to put the Chicago Cubs in position to win.”

• Perla Parades (MLB.com): Zeferjahn records 1st Cubs save, Conforto notches club’s 200th HR in win over Marlins. “Part of that is continuing to let his defense work behind him and not chasing strikeouts.”

• Field Level Media (Yardbarker): Michael Conforto, Ian Happ lead Cubs past Marlins. “Ryan Zeferjahn got the final five outs without allowing a run to earn his first save with the Cubs and fifth of the season.”

Assorted Pitching Stories:

• Jeff Agrest (Chicago Sun-Times): Cubs reliever Ryan Rolison heeds advice from wife, who said he was ‘boring to watch’. “If you’ve enjoyed watching the emotion Rolison has shown lately, you can thank his wife, Lauren.”
• Nick Deeds (Cubbies Crib): Checking in on Braxton Garrett after Cubs took intriguing project away from Marlins. “There’s work still to be done in the final weeks of the minor league season.”
• Elias Schuster (Chicago Cubs On SI): Cubs Injury Update: Justin Steele Watch, Edward Cabrera Concerns Grow, More. “The Chicago Cubs’ Edward Cabrera continued to allow tons of contact in his most recent rehab outing.”
• Matt Ostrowski (North Side Baseball): Cubs Shouldn’t Panic About Jacob Webb’s Slump, But He Can’t Lose Confidence In Himself. “Jacob Webb hasn’t looked right since taking a line drive off his throwing arm, but the Cubs’ closer should be okay, so long as he doesn’t lose confidence in what got him here in the first place.”
• Rich Eberwein (Cubbies Crib): Cubs may finally be seeing Ryan Zeferjahn isn’t the trade deadline bust fans feared. “Ryan Zeferjahn might be fixed.”
• Patrick Mooney (The Atlantic {$}): Cubs pitcher Kevin Gausman playing with ‘house money’ as he chases World Series ring. “The flashes of dominance and overall body of work have left little doubt that Gausman should be operating near the front of Chicago’s potential playoff rotation.”
• Ryan O’Rourke (Cubbies Crib): David Peterson has become the perfect low-cost Cubs reunion candidate for 2027. “The former Mets hurler has become a godsend on the North Side.”

Assorted Hitting (or PCA-MVP-HR-WAR) Stories:

• Alexander Rosquez (LastWordOnSports): Pete Crow-Armstrong Chases Rare 10-fWAR Season Last Seen With Barry Bonds. “The Pete Crow-Armstrong WAR chase has already entered Cubs history, but his next potential milestone could be even more unusual.”
• Matt Sullivan (Sporting News): Cubs’ Pete Crow-Armstrong receives bold MLB HR prediction that could actually happen. “This bold prediction could actually happen for PCA this season.”
• Rich Eberwein (Cubbies Crib): 5 no-brainer stats that make Pete Crow-Armstrong’s National League MVP case unstoppable. “No matter what happens in the playoffs, Pete Crow-Armstrong is giving Chicago Cubs fans a season that will go down as one of the best in team history.”
• Patrick Mooney (The Atlantic {$}): Why is Cubs’ Pete Crow-Armstrong becoming ‘the face of baseball’? A former coach’s perspective. “Pete Crow-Armstrong is one home run away from tying Billy Williams as the franchise’s only left-handed hitters with 40 or more in a season.”

Assorted Stories:

• Patrick Mooney (The Athletic {$}): Cubs’ Labor Day snapshot: A 2nd-place team that believes it can win the World Series. “This Labor Day snapshot still shows the Cubs looking up at the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central standings.”
• Steve Greenberg (Chicago Sun-Times): Craig Counsell or Pat Murphy? We went to Whitefish Bay for the answer. “Is there at least one place in Brewerland where fans still rate Counsell — Milwaukee’s all-time winningest manager — ahead of his popular successor?”
• Paul Sullivan (Chicago Tribune {$}): Column: How the brotherhood among Chicago’s young stars fuels our great sports town’s next wave. “Seeing Caleb Williams, Matas Buzelis and Caleb Wilson supporting Pete Crow-Armstrong at Wrigley Field reminds us of what a great sports town Chicago is.”

Food For Thought:

Based in Lucerne, Switzerland, Biscuit Jack is a driven and charismatic band with a unique approach to their blend of blues, country and rock. The combo has been around since 2005, when some friends got together to play gigs for the love of music. Led by passionate frontman Sascha Koch, the band is all about personal lyricism and unforgettable hooks.

Please be reminded that Cub Tracks and Bleed Cubbie Blue do not necessarily endorse the content of articles, podcasts, or videos that are linked to in this series.

Jaylon Thompson writes about a statistical oddity that occurred in yesterday’s loss to the Diamondbacks.

The Royals and Arizona Diamondbacks dueled at Kauffman Stadium. Neither side scored through nine innings, and it set up for a fantastic finish.

The teams combined to score nine runs in the 10th frame. According to MLB researcher Sarah Langs, it was the third time since 1969 that a scoreless game (through nine innings) saw both teams score at least four runs in extras.

I’m not sure I would have called that fantastic.

Chris Higgins and Dylan Larsen at the Kansas City Star compared the proposed Royals stadium funding mechanism to the Power & Light District.

Famously in local lore, financial projections for a similar funding plan at the Power & Light District did not pan out, and the city has kicked in money from the general fund to pay off bonds — $15.3 million in the last budget for the KC Live! entertainment district, according to city documents — which has sparked fears that the same could happen with the Royals plan.

City Council member Johnathan Duncan of the 6th District has called the Royals plan “Power & Light on steroids.”

While the Power & Light project didn’t go as projected, city officials say they have been conservative in their financial models for the Crown Center stadium and will work to ensure the same thing doesn’t happen again.

Jaylon Thompson got details on how the Royals will proceed with Jac Caglianone.

On Sunday, the Royals received the test results. Caglianone has a Grade 1 flexor strain, but he isn’t expected to be placed on the injured list.

“We’ll have a couple of days with no throw and no activity today,” Quatraro said. “Then, we’ll see where he is come Tuesday or Wednesday. And hopefully, we dodged a bullet there.”

This is a new injury for Caglianone. He had previously dealt with right ankle soreness that sidelined him for a few games. However, he managed to return and play through the injury in August.

Now, the Royals say they are confident he can overcome his elbow injury. The club will build a recovery plan in the next couple of days.

“Now that we know it’s low grade, we can progress a little more aggressively when the time comes,” Quatraro said. “But definitely a day today (Sunday) with no activity.”

Anne Rogers wrote about Vinnie’s home run during Sunday’s game.

On Saturday, there were two at-bats Pasquantino wanted back, grounding out in the first inning and hitting into a double play in the eighth with the tying and go-ahead runs on base in the Royals’ eventual one-run loss.

But such is the beauty of baseball: The next day, you’re probably getting another chance.

“That’s what my dad always said, and it’s something I kind of repeated here, which is: The only one that matters is the next one,” Pasquantino said. “You might hit a homer in one at-bat, but you still have to go up there the second time. You might strike out your first time, and you still got to go up there for your second one. It’s kind of like trying to erase the past a little bit and just focus on where your feet are and trying to go compete because it’s all you can do — is get to the next one.”

She also wrote about Noah Cameron’s continued hot stretch after yesterday’s brilliant start.

There are lots of reasons for Cameron’s turnaround this year. From calling his own pitches to increasing his slider usage to being in the zone more, Cameron has brought his season ERA down from 5.27 on July 19 to 3.93 after Monday. Heck, there even might be something to what glove he’s using in the second half, as he ditched the tan one he used early for the blue one he used for most of last year. (He doesn’t call himself superstitious, but … c’mon.)

All of it showed up Monday. Cameron threw a lot of strikes (67%), particularly early with a 68% first-pitch strike percentage, per Statcast. He befuddled the D-backs with his pitch mix and generated weak contact.

“I thought we were just attacking guys that are notorious for taking early,” Cameron said. “It was just kind of like, ‘Get in the zone, try to stay ahead, try to throw [fewer] pitches.’”

David Lesky recaps the weekend’s games.

Yirsandy Rodríguez at Royals Keep thinks Seth Lugo’s problems lie with his fastball.

The Yankees have activated Aaron Judge off the IL.

Thomas Pannone threw a perfect game last night in the minors, the first since 2017.

Shohei Ohtani is not likely to pitch again this season.

Nate Rasmussen has a neat tool for examining pitch grips.

In a surprise announcement, the KC Current and Sporting Director Vlatko Andonovski mutually agree to part ways.

SMU vs. FSU last night was played in unusual conditions due to a power outage.

The Atlanta Falcons have selected Tua Tagovailoa as their week 1 starter. Woof.

Nate Christensen has game-by-game predictions for the Chiefs.

This guy has trouble finishing books. I dunno, sounds like a skill issue.

Your song of the day is Sarah and the Safe Word with Old Gods of Television.

The San Francisco Giants are one of just three teams in Major League Baseball to be eliminated from playoff contention already. They’re one of five teams that has no chance whatsoever of having a winning season. They’re one of four teams that has no chance of having a .500 season.

But one thing is still in play: fewer than 100 losses.

Since moving to San Francisco in 1958, the Giants franchise has lost triple-digit games just one time, when they lost exactly 100 in 1985. If you’re looking for reasons for optimism, the Giants responded to that 62-100 campaign with five consecutive winning seasons in the following years. That would be a welcome sight for this Giants squad, given that it’s been a decade since they posted even two straight winning seasons.

After Monday’s walk-off victory over the St. Louis Cardinals, the Giants are 60-85. They need to win just three of their final 17 contests to avoid the second 100-loss campaign in San Francisco history. Even for the Giants, that seems very doable, though it’s worth noting that six of those games are against the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the other 11 are against teams in the playoff race.

Still, the quest for a loss total in the 90s is not only on, but achievable, and the Giants are even in pole position. Sometimes you just have to aim low.

What time do the Giants play today?

The Giants host the Cardinals tonight at 6:45 p.m. PT.

Not many things have gone right for the Orioles in 2026. And yet, the development of Coby Mayo is easily one of the biggest wins of the season.

Early in the season, the 24-year-old Mayo was viewed as another one of Baltimore’s talented young players who couldn’t translate that talent into major league production. Much of that initial skepticism was warranted. Through the first month of the season, Mayo slashed .169/.244/.325 with more strikeouts (25) than hits (13). The young 3B’s early defining moment was a negative one, as an error against his hometown team cost the Orioles a loss to the Marlins back in May.

We saw a brief uptick in his play after the error, with Mayo putting up a .876 OPS over 15 games the rest of May. As we saw in September of the 2025 season, the mammoth home runs and more consistent play provided us with a brief proof of concept that Mayo could succeed in the big leagues. However, another boom-or-bust period from the beginning of June to the All-Star break (.183 average, .698 OPS, 41.7% strikeout rate) brought back those questions about whether the holes in Mayo’s game were too big to ever become an every-day player.

The second half of his season has put a lot of those questions to bed. In 42 games since the All-Star break, Mayo has put up a triple slash of .279/.331/.574. His .905 OPS in the second half only trails Pete Alonso among Orioles regulars. Mayo also ranks second in post-All-Star home runs (9) and third in RBIs (24), all while cutting down his strikeout rate to a more respectable (but still high) 32.6%.

And while his performance has improved across the board over the last two months, the young 3B is still a drastic-splits player. Against LHPs, Mayo, simply put, is the best hitter in all of baseball. Against lefties, he leads MLB in home runs (16), slugging percentage (.752) and OPS (1.136). If you gave Mayo 500 ABs against southpaws at his current rates, he’d hit 60 home runs and put up numbers that rival Aaron Judge’s MVP seasons.

Against right-handers, it’s a different story. His season-long totals are about as good as Colton Cowser vs. changeups. In 219 ABs against RHPs this year, Mayo is hitting .163 with a .513 OPS, while striking out in 37.9% of his ABs.

However, like the rest of his numbers, that performance has gotten better in the second half of the season. Across April, May and June, Mayo had a .148 average with a .235 slugging percentage. Across July, August and the early bit of September, those numbers have jumped up to a .203 average and a .391 slugging percentage. Perhaps most impressive in his improvement against right-handers is Mayo’s increased discipline, with his strikeout rate dropping from 40.3% across April-June to 31.9% across July-September. And as we saw yesterday, he can turn on pitches from pitchers on both sides.

Mayo’s second-half surge should be enough to guarantee him more playing time in 2027. His profile—as a player with elite raw power—is one that often needs a longer runway to adjust to major league pitching. I’ve often viewed Mayo’s ceiling as that of former All-Star Troy Glaus. In Glaus’ first full season, he hit .240 with a .781 OPS and 29 homers in 551 ABs. The next season, Glaus led the AL with 47 home runs while posting a 1.008 OPS en route to his first All-Star appearance.

With a .224 average, .748 OPS and 21 homers in only 352 ABs, Mayo is in line with Glaus’ first full season. However, if the Orioles want to see a similar jump from their 24-year-old power hitter, they’ll need to give him a more regular role instead of just a super-platoon role.

However, fitting Mayo into the lineup on an everyday basis could require some flexibility from the rest of Baltimore’s infielders. Assuming Jordan Westburg comes back healthy from his Tommy John surgery, the Orioles will have five players to split time between 2B, 3B and DH. Westburg and Alexander can play at both 2B and 3B, whereas Mayo and CES only play the hot corner and Holliday has spent the vast majority of his career at second.

However, creative solutions may be what’s needed to revamp the Orioles order going forward. Alexander has played 120 innings in the outfield this year. As one of the few consistent on-base threats in the lineup, Alexander might need to take some of the ABs from Leody Taveras and Tyler O’Neill going into next year.

Alternatively, Mayo could find himself as a semi-permanent DH next year. Manager Craig Albernaz has rotated players like Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward and Adley Rutschman in the DH spot this year to try and keep them fresh. However, the best option going forward could be an even split with Mayo and Samuel Basallo at DH, instead of this year’s DH-by-committee approach.

We may also see a Grayson-Rodriguez-style trade to alleviate the infield surplus. Any one of Westburg, CES or even Holliday could be on the move this offseason if the right upgrade opportunity arises. This front office has shown a recent ruthlessness in trading away players who no longer fit their long-term goals, and a trade of any of those three would open up more ABs for Mayo.

The failures of this Orioles’ season will largely be pinned on an offense that often couldn’t carry its weight. If the O’s want to avoid that fate again in 2027, Mayo needs to play more, starting now. How Albernaz and the front office create that playing time will be something to watch throughout September and into next season.

This has been a year of rebuilding for the Colorado Rockies.

Understandably, the tendency is to focus on personnel, but don’t overlook the technology rebuild that’s happening as well. Prior to the Rockies decision to bring on president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta, reporters documented extensively how the Rockies were behind their peers in terms of using technology to improve player performance. It’s an area in which the current front office is working to correct.

When Purple Row spoke with Rockies bullpen coach Matt Buschmann about bullpen usage, he mentioned the team was using Catapult, a wearable device that allows pitchers to track their work.

Manager Warren Schaefer noted that the Rockies were one of the last MLB teams to adopt this technology, but it’s become a significant factor in helping the organization manage pitcher workloads.

We wanted to know more about Catapule, so I spent last weekend asking coaches and players to explain what Catapult does and how it’s affected their approach to the game.

What do the numbers show?

Let’s start with the obvious: Bullpen management is key to any successful baseball team. A big part of that involves tracking pitcher workload.

“I think it’s more important here in Denver than it is anywhere,” Schaeffer said.

As a starting point, consider how many innings Rockies relievers have thrown over the last three seasons.

• 2024: 601.0 IP (13th in MLB), 5.41 ERA (30th in MLB), -0.3fWAR (29th in MLB)
• 2025: 631.0 IP (6th in MLB), 5.18 ERA (29th in MLB), -0.7 fWAR (30th in MLB)
• 2026: 579.2 IP (5th in MLB), 4.72 ERA (26th in MLB), 3.3 fWAR (15th in MLB)

So, yes, the 2026 Rockies bullpen is significantly better than it was in the previous two years. Although it is on track to throw more innings than most other teams, the ERA is lower than that of previous Rockies teams, and the fWAR is significantly improved.

(I realize this leaves out many significant factors, but given that Catapult is primarily focused on workload management, that’s the factor I am most interested in examining.)

Here are the heaviest throwers in those seasons:

• 2024: Victor Vodnik (73.2 IP), Tyler Kinley (64.0 IP), Justin Lawrence (59.2 IP)
• 2025: Jimmy Herbert, (83.1 IP), Juan Mejia (61.1 IP), Angel Chivilli (58.2 IP)
• 2026: Zach Agnos (69.2 IP, ), Juan Mejia (58.0 IP), Brennan Bernardino (56.0 IP)

Given Agnos’ status as a bulk reliever, it makes sense that his innings count would be so high. Notably, Mejia and most of the Rockies heavy-use relievers will exceed their 2025 numbers. But they are still being effective.

That’s where Catapult comes in.

What is Catapult?

Baseball teams know how many pitches a player throws in a game. That data is easily tracked.

Buschmann wanted to know how many pitches a pitcher throws outside the context of a game because all of those throws contribute to a pitcher becoming fatigued.

Think about it.

Pitchers are throwing all the time. They play catch with a teammate. They work on pitches. They warm up. And, as Schaeffer puts it, “It’s a ridiculous high amount of throws to get themselves feeling right.”

But all those throws add up over the course of the season.

“The majority of the throws are made outside the game,” Buschmann said. “So once we track that, we get a full idea of the throwing.

Plus, the intensity varies, and it’s not possible for a pitcher to accurately measure how much he has exerted himself over the course of a day.

“I’m a guy that always used to throw a lot,” Rockies closer Jordan Romano said, “and I didn’t even really know that. I would say, ‘Oh, I’m throwing light today.’ But my light day would actually be super heavy compared to everyone else, so (Catapult) kind of helps monitor you, keeps the arm feeling good, makes sure you’re not overdoing it.”

A visit to Catapult’s website shows this is an Australia-based company involved with many sports. It provides “[c]omprehensive baseball data & video analysis tracking technology to capture, analyze, plan, and share every aspect of team & player performance.”

A Catapult vest has a GPS system with an accelerometer, a gyroscope, and a magnetometer that measures a variety of activities.

When a player who has been wearing a Catapult vest finishes a throwing session, Buschmann uploads the data. Catapult then has a program that extracts each throw and determines how hard each throw was.

“So that gives you a score,” Buschmann said. “Then every day, we kind of add up all those scores to understand and make sure we’re kind of rolling a wave where you have high days and you have low days and mediums in between. But you want to make sure that you’re actually doing that, so kind of staying in one place throughout.”

The result is a visual report that he discusses with pitchers.

After a player has worn a Catapult vest long enough, the Rockies are able to establish a baseline, which guides, according to Buschmann, “What you should throw that day to make sure you stay within a certain throwing load to make sure we don’t spike it.”

Knowing this information provides additional data Buschmann and the Rockies can use in load management.

“Essentially, if we understand how much they’ve thrown, know what they did in the game,” Buschmann said, “it really comes down to what your workload was, what your output was in that workload, and then your response to it. So when we measure those three things, we get a really good idea of where that player is relative to their baseline.”

“But it kind of takes the guesswork out of what to do pregame throwing,” Romano said.

What do the pitchers say?

Romano is a Catapult enthusiast.

He first began using the technology in 2021 when he and Buschmann were with the Toronto Blue Jays.

“Then I then I got off it just because other teams didn’t have it,” Romano said.

That changed when he signed with the Rockies.

“I got here — I think a week or two in — Buschmann’s like, ‘Hey, do you want to get back on the Catapult?’ I was like, ‘Yeah, I think that’d be a great idea just for myself.’ So I started wearing it, and then I think a lot of other guys are wearing it, too. And I think just talking with them, they’re finding it very helpful as well.”

For Romano, it’s taken a lot of the guesswork out of his training program.

“I just found it really helpful. It helps you understand what you’re supposed to do pregame. So if you’re throwing a lot pregame, then you get in the game, Catapult will tell you, ‘Hey, today needs to be within these parameters. It needs to be a light day.’”

For the last month, starter Gabriel Hughes has also been experimenting with Catapult while playing catch.

“The (measures) that I look at are the amount of throws and the intensity building up in the throws,” Hughes said. “And so I think it’s allowed me to manage my workload a lot better, both in the number of throws and the way that I’m throwing, the manner that I’m throwing.”

Like Romano, Hughes appreciates having an additional information source.

“I think it’s been very valuable because it’s given me an objective measure to how much I’m throwing. That’s what I’m very bad at estimating,” Hughes said. “So I think, in the same vein, it’s helped me manage my workload better because it gives me an accurate number for how much I’m throwing and the intensity that I’m throwing at.”

Not all Rockies pitchers are experimenting with Catapult.

As Brennan Bernadino put it, “I’m just old school.”

And, to be fair, the numbers indicate that Bernadino’s current system is working just fine for him. It’s tough to beat a 2.09 ERA in 56.0 IP.)

(Per the Major League Baseball Players Association, players’ decisions to use wearable technology “shall be wholly voluntary.” Moreover, teams must be explicit about the data that will be collected and those who will have access to that information, which is considered highly confidential.)

Final thoughts

It can be easy to focus on roster and staffing decisions and lost sight of the fact that the Rockies are not only rebuilding but also trying to solve baseball at elevation.

Catapult is one tool the Rockies hope will help them do that.

They are also exploring other kinds of sports technologies, but that’s a subject for a separate discussion.

This week on the internet

Speaking of technology, in case you missed the recent feature on Rockies TV about Trajekt, here you go:

Improvements point to brighter future | MLB.com

This week in his Rockies Beat newsletter, Thomas Harding spoke with Rockies hitting coach Brett Pill about what he’s seeing in terms of hitting improvements on the part of a young Rockies team.

MLB Power Rankings: A top-5 shake-up; How do each team’s trade deadline moves look now? | The Athletic ($)

By this point in the season, I’ve generally stopped reading power rankings but this one caught my attention given that it factored in teams’ trade deadline moves. The good news is that the Rockies are not last. Instead, they have moved into a less-basement-y 27th place. However, they received a “C” from the evaluators based on the Rockies decision not to trade Mickey Moniak, especially in light of his terrible August. That’s a fair criticism, but to focus on Moniak as opposed to the pitchers the Rockies brought in seems to me to be missing the forest for the trees. The Rockies have already put some of those pitchers to work with promising results.

‘This is home’: The lights shine bright in the inaugural WPBL season | SB Nation

I wanted to be sure that Joelle Milholm’s terrific article on the WPBL didn’t get lost.

Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

Across the whole of the Orioles organization, it may end up that only the High-A affiliate in Frederick has much to play for in the month of September. The rest of the farm teams haven’t done much all season, and as for the big league team, well, they started out playing meaningful September games and rapidly moved towards making them meaningless.

This week-long look at the action on the Orioles farm tends to focus on players who are on the midseason updated top prospect lists, guys who will hopefully make their way into the major league picture eventually.

The regular seasons for Low-A Delmarva and High-A Frederick are both over now. Chesapeake’s season ends after this week. Norfolk has two more weeks to go.

Here’s how things shook out over the minor league week that just finished:

Triple-A Norfolk Tides

• Last week’s record: 3-3 vs. Jacksonville (Marlins)
• This week’s opponent: at Memphis (Cardinals)
• Second half record: 24-36, last place (12 GB) in International League East

In Baltimore, another random outfielder has recently arrived – Rece Hinds. That’s twice now that the Orioles have chosen to just call up some random dude instead of giving Enrique Bradfield Jr. a chance; they brought Christian Franklin into the mix rather than trying Bradfield after the trade deadline. It’s weird. As for Bradfield’s performance this week, he batted 7-24 across six games, with four walks and four stolen bases.

To some extent, I get it: Bradfield is hitting .264/.352/.354 in 79 games and you have to wonder how that slugging percentage will translate to MLB. But, again, instead we’re seeing Rece Hinds, who can’t hit and also screwed up a routine fly ball yesterday.

Relatively recent Norfolk arrival Brandon Butterworth, from last year’s Padres trade, went 5-19 across six games, with two of his five hits being homers. His 18 games since getting promoted have generated a .631 OPS. It’d be nice to see him raise that to more respectable levels by season’s end. This week makes for a move in the right direction.

I’d like to tell you that Michael Forret, who the Orioles re-acquired from the Rays for Tyler Wells after including him in the Shane Baz trade, pitched well. Instead, what I can tell you is that he had just a three-inning start and managed to allow two runs on three hits and three walks. The 22-year-old has a 5.43 ERA in 14 games between Tampa’s and Baltimore’s Triple-A teams this year. Eh.

Others of interest

• RHP Félix Bautista – The Mountain’s rehab continued. He walked three batters over 1.2 innings in two games.
• C/1B Creed Willems – 2-12 with no extra-base hits; he slumped in August and so far September is worse.

Norfolk season-to-date stats.

Double-A Chesapeake Baysox

• Last week’s record: 3-3 vs. Portland (Red Sox)
• This week’s opponent: at Richmond (Giants) – end of regular season
• Second half record: 34-28, second place (6.5 GB) in Eastern League Southwest

The Baysox are eliminated from Eastern League postseason contention. The second half went better than the first half (29-39).

My guy Aron Estrada went just 2-22 with no extra-base hits and only one walk. He’s still my guy. I just won’t be waving the flag too high right now.

The ever-enigmatic Vance Honeycutt was about as far from Estrada’s performance as can be over these games. He packed nine hits into six games, with three doubles and two homers, and he stole three bases. Honeycutt, who you’d be forgiven for bailing on based on his Frederick batting, has a .339/.431/.661 in 16 games with Chesapeake.

Shortstop Wehiwa Aloy did one better than Honeycutt for homers, with three homers in his five games. Aloy has nine homers in 35 games since joining this level. He struck out 10 times in 21 at-bats. That’s going to be the thing to keep an eye on as much as anything else.

Three of the organization’s top four prospects are currently in the Baysox rotation. The headliner from the Adley Rutschman trade, Anthony Eyanson, had the best outing of this group of guys this week, allowing just a run over six innings while striking out eight and walking none. That’ll play! Eyanson has a 2.00 ERA in five starts since joining the Baysox.

Lefty Caden Hunter, this season’s big surprise, struck out nine over five innings, with two runs allowed. Joseph Dzierwa had a nice K/BB rate (7/1) though four runs allowed in three innings isn’t so good. Still, he has a 2.43 ERA and 0.961 WHIP in 17 games with the Double-A affiliate.

Others of interest

• C/1B Ethan Anderson – 5-19 with a homer across five games; .871 OPS for the season
• 1B Victor Figueroa 6-19, also with a homer, across five games. He’s got an .808 OPS in 32 games since getting promoted here
• RHP JT Quinn – Five shutout innings with just three hits allowed, five strikeouts. Quinn has a 2.50 ERA in four games with the Baysox
• RHP Patrick Reilly – Two runs allowed in seven innings, with eight strikeouts and only one walk. Reilly has a 3.97 ERA in seven starts here since returning from Tommy John surgery

Chesapeake season-to-date stats.

High-A Frederick Keys

• Last week’s record: 6-1 at Brooklyn (Mets)
• This week’s opponent: Division Series vs. Greensboro (Pirates)
• Second half record: 42-23, first place in South Atlantic League North

The Keys also won their first half division with a 41-23 record. Their 83 wins are a record for the affiliate. Their best-of-three against Greensboro this week pits them against the team that finished a combined 2.5 games back in the first and second halves of the season. If Frederick wins this series, they’ll play the winner of Bowling Green (Rays) and Winston-Salem (White Sox) for the league title.

It’s not only players who’ve already been promoted beyond Frederick who helped rack up those 83 wins. Recent arrivals are playing their part too, including a dynamic duo of age-19 infielders, DJ Layton and Jaiden Lo Re. Layton notched nine hits, including five doubles, in five games for the Keys, with four walks and five stolen bases. He’s already stolen 13 bases in 23 games here. Lo Re’s seven hits includes two doubles.

Not so much a part of this party were outfielders Enddy Azocar and Ty Head. Azocar, also 19, went just 4-19 with a double; still, he’s OPSing .9o1 in 25 games here. Head, the Orioles second round pick this year, was 5-18, and although he had no extra-base hits, he did steal three bases in his first week playing at High-A.

Others of interest

• LHP Boston Bateman – Three innings, three runs, four hits, three walks. Finished with a 3.65 ERA and 1.378 WHIP in 24 games. Would really like to see that 5.0 BB/9 get cut down.
• C Yasmil Bucce – He signed the same day as Samuel Basallo and has been on a slower development path, but still, at age 21, this is like where an American college player would be now. That’s totally fine! He hit two homers and walked six times; .860 OPS in 58 games, with 11 homers, isn’t nothing.

Frederick final regular season stats.

Low-A Delmarva Shorebirds

• Last week’s record: 1-5 at Kannapolis (White Sox)
• This week’s opponent: Season over
• Second half record: 22-44, last place (18 GB) in Carolina League North

Delmarva finished last in the first half as well.

One piece of good news to send the Shorebirds into the offseason. First round pick Eric Booth Jr. racked up 11 hits over the six games in this series, adding three stolen bases. He had a .719 OPS over 18 games; he’ll probably start next season at this level as well, hopefully with a midseason promotion to Frederick in his future.

Delmarva final regular season stats.

**

The winner of last week’s minor league player of the week poll was Victor Figueroa, who took 55% of the vote in a head-to-head with Cade Povich after a week where Figueroa had a 1.102 OPS. That’s Figueroa’s second win of the season, joining a list of two-time winners that also includes Enddy Azocar, Caden Hunter, Ike Irish, and my guy Aron Estrada. Man, it sucks that Irish tore his meniscus in July.

The list of single-week winners: Payton Eeles, Braylin Tavera, Wehiwa Aloy, Jaiden Lo Re, Joseph Dzierwa, Luis De León, and Heston Kjerstad.

We’re going to crown a new winner this week. Though some of the players named above had nice weeks for themselves, particularly Aloy, I’m putting a set of choices into the poll where no one has taken a weekly crown yet.

Do you remember when the Red Sox weren’t gonna have any player in 2026 who would hit 20 home runs?

I’m not gonna be gaslit by this by being told that I’m imagining things, because I know you remember this discourse leading up to Opening Day as well. FanGraphs’ ZiPS model said it themselves in the spring: Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu were going to lead Boston with 19 homers this season. Even if you wanted to be charitable and incorporate mid-season addition Adley Rutschman into the equation, his ZiPS projections still only accounted for 18 round-trippers.

This idea was (at least anecdotally) a consistent-enough of a conversation leading up to that first series in Cincinnatti. There’s a whole Reddit thread about it (yeah, one whole Reddit post!!!! WOW!!!!). Hell, we here at Over The Monster poised the question back in early March!

Here we are about a half a year later, and the Red Sox now have a trio of guys who have notched at least 20 dongs. Willson Contreras leads the way with 26 (compared to his projected 17 from FanGraphs) followed by Abreu’s 23. Duran logged his 20th on Labor Day, while the currently-injured Ceddanne Rafaela has an outside chance of hitting four more homers to get to 20 if he’s taken off of the injured list sooner rather than later. Hell, with the way he’s been hitting, maybe Mickey Gasper can get to 20 before the Pats begin their season tomorrow night.

As Mista Secatore pointed out in that March article here on OTM, baseball projections are inherently an exercise where there’s not going to be any bold takes. It’s just easier to project, say, 25 homers for a guy as opposed to 40. These models are never gonna stick their neck out for many players, so to speak. ZiPS projected that just eight players in MLB would reach the 35 homer mark by the end of the 2026 season—eight players have already done so as I’m writing this on Labor Day, while a handful of other guys could easily get to 35 by the time game 162 is played.

The point is: You can only take so much away from projections. They can maybe help give you a baseline, but they aren’t to be taken as bible. You know this, of course.

It’s just funny to look back at the noise regarding that talking point. This team, even at their worst, was not gonna play over half of their games in hitter friendly environments by proxy of calling Fenway Park home and not have at least one guy reach 20 homers. When you’ve got the benefit of hitting balls…….over the monster……….or towards Pesky’s Pole about 300 feet away, you almost have to go out of your way to not have even one guy with at least something resembling a modest power output. It was just a matter of who was going to do it, not if it was going to happen in the first place.

At the same time, though, this power output has to be something that’s addressed moving forward.

I commend Craig Breslow and Co. for building a legit American League contender, and I think we here at OTM have done more than enough to praise the hard work the players and coaching staff have put in to get themselves out of the early season hole that was dug. I don’t want to poo poo what’s sure to be an interesting end to the regular season and a fun postseason (HOPEFULLY, KNOCKING ON WOOD, DO NOT YELL AT ME ABOUT A JINX).

Yet the Red Sox rank in the bottom third of the league in terms of total home runs. Their team slugging is still pretty good—just over .400—but I’m talking pure old school taters here, baby. Boston hasn’t ranked worse than 20th in total team home runs in a full season since 2017 (and they even finished 12th in the COVID-shorted season in 2020, in spite of how stinky that team was). Not that home run output is the be-all-end-all for a championship team, but just to put this in perspective: three of the four World Series-winning Boston rosters this century have finished within the top-10 in total team homers in their respective seasons (guess which of the four title-winning teams was the exception in the comments below, and don’t cheat by looking it up!!!!!).

The 2026 Red Sox can absolutely succeed without someone like a Manny Ramirez, or a David Ortiz, or a J.D. Martinez. There are enough guys who, when healthy, can give us enough pop to make this fall a memorable one—even if no one is gonna confuse them with Barry Bonds or Hank Aaron (well, maybe outside of Gasper). Homers aren’t even the key part of the Red Sox’s current DNA; it’s the pitching and the defense that serves as the backbone of this iteration of the club. Even then, there are enough guys in the fold right now—as has been proven since late June—who can carry us to the promised land if things break our way.

With all of that said, I’m just curious to see how this matter of power is addressed moving forward. The Sox play 81 games at one of the most consistently hitter-friendly environments in the sport. Three of our four divisional opponents rank within the top-12 of the league in terms of park factor over the past three seasons (read as: the Orioles, Yankees, and Jays play in at least marginally hitter-friendly environments). Only six parks in the American League have ranked out as “pitcher-friendly” yards over the past three years if Savant’s park factor is to be believed. You can’t go wrong with more juice in the Junior Circuit. It’s too early to try and specifically predict how more power can be brought into Boston, but it’s something to think about moving forward.

In the meantime, let’s just be thankful that the ZiPS projections was wrong about the 2026 version of the Sox’s power output.