The last Spring Training game is upon us and baseball will officially return to South Philadelphia in three days. Here are the lineups for the final matchup, let’s discuss!
For the Phillies:
For the Rays:
Gamethread 3/23: Phillies vs Rays
Three Positives From the Final Week in Goodyear, Arizona
We’re just three short days away from the first game of the regular season, and there’s still so much to look forward to. Here are three happy moments from the final week of Spring Training.
Messick Makes the Rotation
The Guardians announced on Saturday that Parker Messick will start the 2026 season in the starting rotation. While they rolled with a six-man rotation in 2025, they’re sticking with five this season. This meant that Logan Allen was optioned to Triple-A Columbus, but gives Messick a very important chance to prove himself. He finished the 2025 season with a 2.72 ERA, 3-1 record, and 1.31 WHIP in 39.2 innings. Given a full season of work, he has the chance to become one of the best pitchers in the rotation. He’s had a successful Spring so far, striking out 11 and owning a 3.60 ERA in 15 innings.
Bibee to Make First Career Opening Day Start
Well, this gets a little complicated because you probably read this same headline last year. While Tanner Bibee was in fact named the Opening Day starter in 2025, he wasn’t able to complete the task as he fell ill the day before. Bibee finished the 2025 season with a 4.24 ERA with 162 strikeouts in 182.1 innings. Spring hasn’t been as successful for him with 19 strikeouts and a 6.65 ERA in 23 innings, but as he gets into the regular-season-mindset, there’s almost no doubt he’ll be able to settle into his regular success.
Spring Breakout Brings a Win
A number of the Guardians top prospects faced off against those of the Los Angeles Angels in Thursday’s Spring Breakout game, and they sure did break out. They took the win 4-2 over the Angels thanks to some defensive errors from Los Angeles as well as a huge three-run home run from Wuilfredo Antunez. The pitching staff also had a great day with Yorman Gómez going three scoreless innings, while Josh Hartle and Joey Oakie each struck out three across their two innings of work apiece. I didn’t need any more reasons to be excited about our prospects, but they certainly provided me with a few anyway.
Social Media Spotlight
Those of you reading this from anywhere in northern Ohio have most certainly read about (or maybe even experienced) the meteor that passed through the sky on Tuesday. The Guardians’ Twitter account had some fun with it, posting the below picture of Superman flying over a Meteors sign at Progressive Field.
Spencer Strider, out with oblique injury, is fifth Braves starter on IL
The Atlanta Braves now have an entire starting rotation ticketed for the injured list for opening day. And that's left the club in a difficult position as they aim to turn things around in 2026.
Spencer Strider will begin the season on the IL with an oblique strain, manager Walt Weiss announced Monday, March 23.
While the club hopes the absence is measured in weeks, obliques are notoriously unpredictable, and would likely knock Strider out through April.
Braves starters on injured list
He'll have company in the rehab room: Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep (elbow bone spurs removal), A.J. Smith-Shawver (Tommy John surgery) and Joey Wentz (ACL tear in right knee) will miss anywhere from several months to the entire season, leaving the Braves in a lurch.
Strider required a second elbow reconstruction surgery after two starts in 2024, returned one year later but suffered a hamstring injury and other setbacks that limited him to 23 starts and a 4.45 ERA. Better results could have been anticipated this season, with Strider another year removed from major elbow surgery.
Now, he may require an additional build-back period if the oblique prevents him from throwing for several weeks.
Braves rotation options after Strider injury
For a club that prides itself on pitching, the Braves are about out of options. Ace Chris Sale, the 2024 NL Cy Young winner, is healthy but at 37 may not be a lock to make 30-plus starts. Reynaldo Lopez, Grant Holmes and Bryce Elder are all middle- to back-end options suddenly bumped up a spot.
And No. 5 starter José Suarez appeared in seven games for the Braves last season, but was waived in January before the Braves re-claimed him from Baltimore weeks later.
One proven option remains on the free agent market.
Lucas Giolito is still unsigned just three days before Opening Day, an indicator he did not find an asking price to his liking on the market. Giolito, 31, pitched to a 3.41 ERA over 20 starts last year in Boston, but ended the season with right elbow discomfort and has extensive injury history with his forearm and elbow.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Spencer Strider injury lands another Braves starting pitcher on IL
GDT: Final Monday of spring training
First pitch against the Philadelphia Phillies is at 12:05 at BayCare Ballpark and the Phillies will be providing tv coverage.
Royals Blueprint: What Needs to Go Right, Plus New Game!
The season is here — and it’s time to ask the big question: How good can the Royals actually be?
In this episode of the Royals Rundown Podcast, Jacob Milham and Jeremy Greco deliver a full Kansas City Royals season preview, breaking down the starting rotation, offensive projections, and key roster battles shaping the team ahead of Opening Day. The hosts analyze the finalized rotation — including the unique dynamic of three consecutive left-handed starters — and discuss whether improved pitching depth can elevate the Royals in 2026.
On the offensive side, Jacob and Jeremy dig into projections from sources like FanGraphs and ZiPS, evaluating whether the Royals can realistically push toward a top-10 lineup in MLB. The conversation highlights expectations for cornerstone players such as Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Maikel Garcia, while identifying potential breakout contributors who could raise the team’s ceiling.
The episode also explores bench battles, roster construction decisions, and farm system depth, offering insight into how the Royals may utilize their emerging talent throughout the season. To wrap things up, the hosts bring some fun with a “burn or buy” segment featuring classic and modern Royals uniforms.
From pitching strategy to lineup potential, this episode provides a comprehensive, data-driven look at the Royals’ outlook and what fans should expect in the season ahead.
Need your Royals fix? Head to royalsreview.com for news, analysis, and to engage with Royals fans around the world! Follow us online:
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– Jeremy Greco: @hokius.fromthehawkseye.com
– Jacob Milham: @jacobmilhkc.bsky.social
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The top 20 Orioles prospects for 2026
Five years ago, the only thing that mattered in the Orioles organization was the farm system. Would the team be able to develop a core that could compete, year in and year out? After the team stumbled a year ago, this question remains unanswered. With how Mike Elias has used his farm system lately, the role the prospects will play could be to supplement (or, in time, replace) the current core of players or they might be traded for more established major leaguers.
We have already seen both of these in action for the 2026 roster. The two top prospects below, Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers, are ticketed for the Opening Day roster, with the Orioles having hope that they will compete for the AL Rookie of the Year award and qualify the team for a bonus draft pick. Several other prospects who might have otherwise made this list were traded for Shane Baz, and one was even included in the deal for Blaze Alexander.
My two big questions for the farm this year: Can they finally look like they’re going to develop some successful major league pitchers? Can the top of the 2024 draft class revive from its severe misfortunes of a year ago?
This ranking is a composite made up of five different prospect lists. Four of the lists are from mainstream national publications: Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, The Athletic, and MLB Pipeline. One list is local, coming from the Orioles prospect enthusiasts of the On The Verge podcast and Substack. As has been the case for a few years, FanGraphs has not produced an Orioles list in time for inclusion in this ranking.
The composite list takes each ranking on the separate lists and averages them together. The ranking below is the direct result of that average. The #1 prospect – Samuel Basallo unanimously, for a second year in a row – is a 1, #2 is a 2, all the way down to 20. Anyone not ranked 1-20 gets a 26 for the purpose of this average. Baseball Prospectus’s list this year is only 15 names, so for that one I have made anyone not ranked 1-15 at 26.
There’s been a good bit of turnover since last year’s list. The top 10 from a year ago has seen one prospect graduation (Coby Mayo), one trade (Michael Forret), and three guys who sank because they stunk (Vance Honeycutt, Chayce McDermott, Griff O’Ferrall). As you’ll see, some new arrivals have debuted highly, while others who’ve been around for a couple of years have worked their way closer to the top.
More turnover is coming, since we can count on Basallo and Beavers at a minimum to graduate from prospect status soon after the season begins. I think that trades will impact this list one way or another as the season goes along as well.
#1 – C Samuel Basallo
- Likely starting level: MLB
- Age (on July 1, 2026): 21
- How he got here: International amateur signing, January 2021
- Where he ranked last year: #1
- Chances of seeing him on the Orioles this year: As close t0 100% as anything in this world
- What’s his deal? (from Baseball America)
Basallo boasts elite bat speed and generates significant power to all fields thanks to his advanced bat-to-ball skills. As he continues to mature and gain experience at the plate against higher-level pitching, he is improving at swinging at pitches he can drive rather than ones his contact ability will allow him to get to. … His flexibility and mobility are good for a catcher of his 6-foot-4, 250-pound dimensions. Basallo’s progress toward mastering the mental and game-calling side of the position, and his consistency in his receiving, will determine his viability at the position.
#2 – OF Dylan Beavers
- Likely starting level: MLB
- Age (on July 1, 2026): 24
- How he got here: 2022 draft (CBA round)
- Where he ranked last year: #6
- Chances of seeing him on the Orioles this year: See previous entry
- What’s his deal? (from MLB Pipeline)
Beavers really figured things out this past year. He cut down his swing-and-miss and did a lot more damage with fastballs compared to his 2024 campaign. He also was much more impactful in zone … Beavers runs very well and has shown he can be a very efficient basestealer … He has the chance to fit the profile of an athletic run-producing right fielder with a strong arm well.
#3 – OF Nate George
- Likely starting level: High-A Frederick
- Age (on July 1, 2026): 20
- How he got here: 2024 draft (16th round)
- Where he ranked last year: Unranked
- Chances of seeing him on the Orioles this year: Zero
- What’s his deal? (from Baseball Prospectus)
George will stick in center field and offers an above-average, hit-over-power offensive projection. He flashes power potential though, and his bat speed beats out his actual present exits, as he can be content to work the opposite field, or stay back on offspeed and try to send it back up-the-middle. Those are already impressive tools to see in a 19-year-old prospect’s belt … average power will come for George as he both gets stronger and swings with more intent.
#4 – C/OF/? Ike Irish
- Likely starting level: High-A Frederick
- Age (on July 1, 2026): 22
- How he got here: 2025 draft (1st round)
- Where he ranked last year: Not in system yet
- Chances of seeing him on the Orioles this year: Zero
- What’s his deal? (from BA)
Irish controls the strike zone well, has good bat speed and feel for the barrel and rips line drives to all fields when he’s at his best. He uses his whole body and keeps the bat in the zone well. That profile makes him a potentially above-average hitter with above-average power … The Orioles plan to have him catch while rotating in at first base and right—where his plus arm shines—but he’ll need to improve his blocking and framing as he develops in pro ball to have a future at the position.
#5 – RHP Trey Gibson
- Likely starting level: Triple-A Norfolk
- Age (on July 1, 2026): 24
- How he got here: Undrafted free agent, 2023
- Where he ranked last year: #15
- Chances of seeing him on the Orioles this year: 50/50; more optimistic people would give you a higher number
- What’s his deal? (from BP)
The 6-foot-5 righty shows a bunch of different looks to batters but mostly works off his four-seam and sinker, both of which sit in the mid-90s. He gets good extension on his fastballs, and while his four-seam is pretty generic, his sinker does show good sink and armside movement … Gibson has a a deep repertoire and while nothing may be out and out plus, he should be able to navigate a lineup of lefties and righties multiple times.
#6 – SS Wehiwa Aloy
- Likely starting level: High-A Frederick
- Age (on July 1, 2026): 22
- How he got here: 2025 draft (compensation pick after 1st round)
- Where he ranked last year: Not in system yet
- Chances of seeing him on the Orioles this year: Zero
- What’s his deal? (from On The Verge)
Questions about the hit tool may have left some teams docking him a bit, but there’s strong belief that Aloy’s hit tool can progress with better pitch recognition. He’s a large, physical presence who has all the tools necessary to stick at shortstop as he develops the power to hit 20+ home runs a season as one of the better shortstop defenders, if all development goes well, of course. That’s an uber attractive profile, even if he’s a .240 or so hitter.
#7 – OF Enrique Bradfield Jr.
- Likely starting level: Triple-A Norfolk
- Age (on July 1, 2026): 24
- How he got here: 2023 draft (1st round)
- Where he ranked last year: #3
- Chances of seeing him on the Orioles this year: 40%
- What’s his deal? (from Pipeline)
Bradfield’s carrying tool is his 80-grade speed, a game-changing tool that instills nightmares in pitchers and catchers alike. It colors him as a kind of throwback table-setter, with excellent contact skills, little pop, and a penchant for laying down bunts and legging out infield hits. … He doesn’t drive the ball with much authority, but he can be an impact offensive player if he consistently hits line drives and continues to slash his ground-ball rate.
#8 – RHP Esteban Mejia
- Likely starting level: Low-A Delmarva
- Age (on July 1, 2026): 19
- How he got here: International amateur signing, January 2024
- Where he ranked last year: Unranked
- Chances of seeing him on the Orioles this year: Zero
- What’s his deal? (from BP)
Mejia has about the best arm speed of any 18-year-old pitcher you will find. The fastball shape and command is inconsistent, and he throws both a sinker and four-seam at present, but there’s the potential for a ride and run four-seam from a lower release slot. That would miss plenty of bats at higher levels—the pure velocity will suffice at the complex and A-ball ones—but Mejia isn’t a mere velocity merchant at present either … he has a rather advanced change-up for a teenager that throws 100 mph, a power pitch that can dive below bats.
#9 – LHP Luis De León
- Likely starting level: Double-A Chesapeake
- Age (on July 1, 2026): 23
- How he got here: International amateur signing, December 2021
- Where he ranked last year: #11
- Chances of seeing him on the Orioles this year: 10%
- What’s his deal? (from BA)
De León’s raw stuff has always been among the best in the Orioles’ system. He boasts a four-seam fastball and two-seamer in the 95-98 mph range that yields a ton of weak, grounded contact. … De León’s command has always been inconsistent, but he has good zone rates with his fastball, suggesting it’s a trait that can continue to improve. Even in the zone, De Leon is hard to square up. He didn’t allow a home run in 87.1 innings in 2025.
De León would have ranked higher on this list except he was left off of Baseball Prospectus’s top 15 list, an outlier among these other rankings. The BP writer who left off De León said “he’s always been very relieverish, so he’s not quite fourth starter enough or close enough as a pen arm.”
#10 – LHP Boston Bateman
- Likely starting level: High-A Frederick
- Age (on July 1, 2026): 20
- How he got here: O’Hearn/Laureano trade with Padres, July 2025
- Where he ranked last year: Not in system yet
- Chances of seeing him on the Orioles this year: Zero
- What’s his deal? (from Pipeline)
Bateman’s stuff befits the enormous high-makeup package it comes in. His fastball can live in the low-to-mid-90s and touched 98 mph during his debut, part of a four-pitch mix that features a pair of breaking balls. … he is seen as having the aptitude to tackle his developmental needs and potentially add pitches to that mix with time. … He still has work to do overall to get to average control, though if he gets there, he’ll look like a mid-rotation starter given his ability and pitch mix.
#11 – RHP Nestor German
- Likely starting level: Triple-A Norfolk
- Age (on July 1, 2026): 24
- How he got here: 2023 draft (11th round)
- Where he ranked last year: #8
- Chances of seeing him on the Orioles this year: 45%
- What’s his deal? (from BP)
Another Orioles pitching development success story … German wasn’t particularly good (at Seattle University) … He’s missed plenty of bats in the pros though. … German’s four-pitch mix makes him a likely starter.
#12 – RHP Braxton Bragg
- Likely starting level: Double-A Chesapeake (injured list)
- Age (on July 1, 2026): 25
- How he got here: 2023 draft (8th round)
- Where he ranked last year: Unranked
- Chances of seeing him on the Orioles this year: Zero
- What’s his deal? (from BA)
Bragg added a couple ticks of fastball velocity and a new changeup and was promoted out of High-A Aberdeen to Double-A Chesapeake after just three dominant starts. He ended up with a 1.68 ERA and 11.75 strikeouts per nine with a 1.000 WHIP in 59 minor league innings before requiring Tommy John surgery. … Bragg’s kick-changeup, a new addition in 2025, is at least above-average and flashes plus. That’s another bat-misser added to a mix that also includes an above-average sweeper and cutter.
#13 – IF Aron Estrada
- Likely starting level: Double-A Chesapeake
- Age (on July 1, 2026): 21
- How he got here: International amateur signing, January 2022
- Where he ranked last year: Honorable mention
- Chances of seeing him on the Orioles this year: 2%
- What’s his deal? (from On The Verge)
Estrada has shown strong bat-to-ball skills (since his pro debut) … added strength, muscle, and bat speed have brought out more power in his game … With a near 80% contact rate, the ability to steal bases at a high clip, and growing power, or at least more impact on his contact to drive more balls into the gaps, Estrada has emerged as a prospect of note … The groundball rates have improved, but are still high, and he doesn’t have a firm defensive home.
#14 – LHP Joseph Dzierwa
- Likely starting level: Low-A Delmarva
- Age (on July 1, 2026): 22
- How he got here: 2025 draft (2nd round)
- Where he ranked last year: Not in system yet
- Chances of seeing him on the Orioles this year: Zero
- What’s his deal? (from Pipeline)
Dzierwa showed real ability to limit walks in college and can pinpoint his entire arsenal wherever he wants, pounding the strike zone and also working the edges well. In terms of total package, it’s a lot to work with. His foundation of size, two potentially plus pitches and command gives him one of the highest floors in the Orioles system as an almost surefire starter, with the development of a reliable breaking pitch determining whether that’s in the middle or the back-end of a big league rotation.
#15 – RHP Juaron Watts-Brown
- Likely starting level: Double-A Chesapeake
- Age (on July 1, 2026): 24
- How he got here: Domínguez trade with Blue Jays, July 2025
- Where he ranked last year: Not in system yet
- Chances of seeing him on the Orioles this year: 1%
- What’s his deal? (from BA)
Watts-Brown can pitch in the big leagues in some capacity simply because of his slider, but a starter’s role depends on improving his fastball, be it a different shape or adding velocity, to help him get deep into games at the highest level.
#16 – RHP Levi Wells
- Likely starting level: Triple-A Norfolk
- Age (on July 1, 2026): 24
- How he got here: 2023 draft (4th round)
- Where he ranked last year: Unranked
- Chances of seeing him on the Orioles this year: 20%
- What’s his deal? (from BP)
Wells is currently a starter, but his best fit is in the pen, where he can air out his upper-90s fastball and roll out a cutter and sweeper behind it. This may or may not come in 2026 though, as he’s likely earned a shot to prove the control and command won’t make him another future fourth starter.
#17 – OF Jordan Sanchez
- Likely starting level: Low-A Delmarva
- Age (on July 1, 2026): 20
- How he got here: International amateur signing, December 2023
- Where he ranked last year: Unranked
- Chances of seeing him on the Orioles this year: Zero
- What’s his deal? (from Pipeline)
The bat is the carrying tool for Sanchez, a left-handed-hitting outfielder with tremendous raw pop … When Sanchez connects, he hits the ball hard and rarely puts it on the ground. But there is real swing-and-miss alongside the exit velocity and on-base ability, with Sanchez running a 25 percent career strikeout rate in the low Minors. … He needs to refine his approach and prove he can hit advanced pitching as he climbs the system.
#18 – OF Thomas Sosa
- Likely starting level: Double-A Chesapeake
- Age (on July 1, 2026): 21
- How he got here: International amateur signing, January 2022
- Where he ranked last year: Honorable mention
- Chances of seeing him on the Orioles this year: Zero
- What’s his deal? (from BA)
Sosa has the makings of a prototypical slugging corner outfielder thanks to his hard contact ability. … His swing decisions and the swing-and-miss in his game will influence how much of his plus raw power Sosa can get to in a game, and he may end up a below-average hitter as a result. Defensively, Sosa has played some center field but profiles more as a right fielder thanks to average speed and a plus arm.
#19 – RHP JT Quinn
- Likely starting level: Low-A Delmarva
- Age (on July 1, 2026): 22
- How he got here: 2025 draft (2nd round)
- Where he ranked last year: Not in system yet
- Chances of seeing him on the Orioles this year: Zero
- What’s his deal? (from Pipeline)
Quinn is a 6-foot-6 power righty. … He has a much better grip on his fastball command (compared to off-speed pitches) as he’s able to run that pitch past hitters up in the zone or throw it with downhill plane toward the bottom of the zone to induce ground balls. … Quinn also operates exclusively from the stretch — all of which gives him the look of a power reliever who would be best running his raw stuff wild in short sprints.
#20 – RHP Anthony Nunez
- Likely starting level: Triple-A Norfolk
- Age (on July 1, 2026): 24
- How he got here: Mullins trade with Mets, July 2025
- Where he ranked last year: Not in system yet
- Chances of seeing him on the Orioles this year: 95%
- What’s his deal? (from BA)
Nunez’s pitch mix is the type one would draw up when designing a modern pitcher … His control is good enough for a high-leverage role—he closed games at Double-A and Triple-A—but he needs to dial in the strike zone in 2026 to ensure that is the case. … Nunez could be the next (unheralded pitcher) they put into a high-leverage role in relief.
Honorable mentions
These players appeared on at least one of the lists but did not have sufficient support to crack the composite top 20. July 1 age is in parenthesis.
RHP Chayce McDermott (27) (from BP)
McDermott can touch 99 and has a suite of swing-and-miss secondaries he can deploy. His change has been one of his better ones too, so he can handle multi-inning work with multiple lefties. The walks are still a problem in the pen, but if the stuff plays up a bit, he could settle into a useful relief role.
C/1B Ethan Anderson (22) (from BA)
Anderson has the potential to be an average hitter thanks to his combination of plate discipline and contact skills … He’s still growing into his ability to impact the ball in-game, which might ultimately limit his offensive upside and keep him from having more than fringe-average game power. That profile will mean he’ll have to continue what was meaningful improvement behind the plate
RHP Tyson Neighbors (23) (from Pipeline)
The 6-foot-2 Neighbors looks like a potentially electric closer who could move quickly. … Neighbors is energetic and fiery on the mound, having long grown comfortable pitching in high-leverage situations. He doesn’t issue too many walks for a relief prospect and trusts his stuff enough to work it outside the zone, where it gets whiffs.
SS Wilfri De La Cruz (18) (from BA)
De La Cruz has an attractive offensive profile for several reasons: his swing decisions and lack of whiffs with elevated contact from both sides of the plate give him a chance for an average hit tool moving forward. … He is also an above-average runner who can be an average defender at shortstop but would fit fine at third base if he outgrows short, given his plus arm.
C Andrew Tess (19) (from On The Verge)
With a strong eye at the plate (17.6% BB rate last season), sneaky speed (18 stolen bases), and a good bit of raw power in the bat, Tess’s offensive performance as an 18-year-old, first-year pro catcher was eye opening and a fun setup for a potential breakout in 2026.
OF Stiven Martinez (19) (from Pipeline)
Martinez shows better on-base ability and can hit the ball harder than most players his age. At 6-foot-4 and nearly 200 pounds, he’s strong and athletic and capable of producing 90th percentile exit velocities as high as 108 mph, which hint at a chance at plus raw power. Martinez generates similar hard-hit metrics as Samuel Basallo did at his age and can drive the ball to all fields.
SS Colin Yeaman (22) (from Pipeline)
Yeaman brings a strong track record of hitting to the Orioles organization. He’s adept at finding the barrel, doesn’t chase and draws walks. He can really punish fastballs, and he puts up good in-zone contact numbers … He’s a fringy runner who likely won’t be a basestealing threat at the next level.
C/1B Creed Willems (23) (from On The Verge)
While the bat struggled through the first few years of his career, Willems has dedicated himself to his craft and is coming off a 118 wRC+ season at Double-A during his age 21/22 season. The power has never been in question (50 HR last three seasons), but the significant drop in strikeouts as he’s moved up the ladder has been comforting.
2026 DRaysBay Community Prospect List
Welcome back to the annual DRaysBay Community Prospect List, a treasured tradition at the site where our community diligently votes for the top prospects in the Rays system.
This off-season saw a dramatic overhaul of the Rays system, and accordingly the DRaysBay list has also shifted dramatically year over year. Only one prospect graduated last year’s list in OF Chandler Simpson (ranked 5th in 2025), while others were traded in Yoniel Curet (7), Mason Montgomery (18), and Colton Ledbetter (22).
| Rank | Player | Position | Votes | Total | Percentage | Last Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carson Williams | SS | 14 | 25 | 56% | 1 |
| 2 | Brody Hopkins | RHP | 19 | 25 | 76% | 8 |
| 3 | Jacob Melton | OF | 14 | 28 | 50% | N/A |
| 4 | Theo Gillen | OF | 14 | 26 | 54% | 13 |
| 5 | Ty Johnson | RHP | 12 | 25 | 48% | 15 |
| 6 | Daniel Pierce | SS | 13 | 23 | 57% | N/A |
| 7 | Jadher Areinamo | INF | 15 | 28 | 54% | N/A |
| 8 | TJ Nichols | RHP | 13 | 28 | 46% | N/R |
| 9 | Michael Forret | RHP | 8 | 33 | 24% | N/A |
| 10 | Santiago Suarez | RHP | 11 | 30 | 37% | 16 |
| 11 | Anderson Brito | RHP | 7 | 28 | 25% | N/A |
| 12 | Xavier Isaac | 1B | 9 | 28 | 32% | 3 |
| 13 | Caden Bodine | C | 10 | 25 | 40% | N/A |
| 14 | Brendan Summerhill | OF | 11 | 27 | 41% | N/A |
| 15 | Slater de Brun | OF | 10 | 25 | 40% | N/A |
| 16 | Nathan Flewelling | C | 8 | 26 | 31% | N/R |
| 17 | Trevor Harrison | RHP | 9 | 26 | 35% | 10 |
| 18 | Jose Urbina | RHP | 13 | 26 | 50% | 25 |
| 19 | Tre’ Morgan | 1B/LF | 15 | 25 | 60% | 4 |
| 20 | Jackson Baumeister | RHP | 12 | 27 | 44% | 12 |
| 21 | Aidan Smith | OF | 17 | 29 | 59% | 6 |
| 22 | Homer Bush Jr. | OF | 10 | 25 | 40% | 21 |
| 23 | Dom Keegan | C | 10 | 28 | 36% | 9 |
| 24 | Gary Gill Hill | RHP | 8 | 25 | 32% | 11 |
| 25 | Brailer Guerrero | OF | 8 | 24 | 33% | 14 |
| 26 | Brayden Taylor | 2B/3B | 6 | 25 | 24% | 2 |
| 27 | Adrian Santana | SS | 6 | 26 | 23% | N/R |
| 28 | Austin Overn | OF | 7 | 21 | 33% | N/A |
| 29 | Taitn Gray | 1B/OF/C | 8 | 23 | 35% | N/A |
| 30 | Victor Valdez | SS | 6 | 22 | 27% | N/A |
1. Carson Williams, SS
23 | R/R | 6’2” | 180
AAA | .213/.318/.447 (98 wRC+) 451 PA, 23 HR, 22 SB, 12.4% BB, 34.1% K
MLB | .172/.219/.354 (54 wRC+) 106 PA, 5 HR, 2 SB, 5.7% BB, 41.5% K
Williams made his MLB debut on August 22nd and proved the be the real deal on defense: an elite athlete with excellent movement and a great arm. It was his performance at the plate that has caused his prospect status to lose some shine, at both the MLB and Triple-A levels, particularly due to some trouble with the curve. In the majors he saw 162 breaking balls across 37 plate appearances and got on base only four times (three hits, one walk) with 20 strikeouts, and the results were similar for off-speed pitches as well. It was a strong enough underperformance at the plate that Williams might not make the big league roster out of Spring Training, despite the trade of Brandon Lowe. As a top flight defender at the hardest position, he doesn’t need to be tearing the cover off the ball, but the bat will need to improve for Williams to be a positive contributor moving forward.
2. Brody Hopkins, RHP
24 | 6’4” | 200
AA | 2.72 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 116.0 IP (25 GS) 28.7% K, 12.2% BB
Hopkins was late to pitching, having done so essentially one season in college before being drafted in 2023, and accordingly has been refining his control throughout his pitching career. This was no different in 2025, as Hopkins saw his performance dramatically improve throughout the Double-A season. He’s a pure power pitcher, a rarity these days, but doesn’t allow much hard contact thanks to a plus-plus curveball, a promising in-development sweeper, a plus cutter, oh and a fastball that touches 100. He’s the type of starter that makes batters say “good luck” to the man in the on-deck circle during their walk back to the dugout. Given the quality of stuff and trajectory of performance, he might be one of the top prospects in baseball by mid-season.
3. Jacob Melton, OF
25 | L/L | 6’3” | 208
AAA (HOU) | .286/.389/.556 (141 wRC+) 150 PA, 6 HR, 12 SB, 14.7% BB, 20.0% K
MLB (HOU) |.157/.234/.186 (22 wRC+) 78 PA, 0 HR, 7 SB, 7.7%BB, 37.2% K
Brought over from Houston in the Brandon Lowe deal, Melton was the Astros top prospect and provides strong value defensively, pairing excellent first-step instincts and above-average range with an arm that, while light, is sufficient for the position. At the plate, his 2025 season provided a clear breakout through a dramatic spike in both hardhit rate and exit velocity. Ongoing mechanical refinements have unlocked more of his natural strength without eroding his contact skills. While this approach leaves some exposure to soft stuff and pitches on the outer third—placing added importance on continued growth in swing decisions—the overall profile fits comfortably as an above-average everyday center fielder with power upside.
4. Theo Gillen, OF
20 | L/R | 6’2” | 195
A | .267/.433/.387 (151 wRC+) 324 PA, 5 HR, 36 SB, 19.8% BB, 23.1% K
Gillen fell to 18th overall in the 2024 draft due to shoulder and wrist injuries, despite being considered by some to be the best teenage bat in the draft. Now healthy, so far he has delivered on that promise, despite a calf injury early in the season and a hand injury while sliding that ended his year early by three weeks. The Rays moved him from short to center after drafting but that has so far not yielded any concerns; the power projection is still unknown. As things stand, Gillen has the floor of a major league contributor and the ceiling of an All-Star, but he has to stay on the field, and has a long way to go.
5. Ty Johnson, RHP
24 | 6’6” | 205
AA | 2.61 ERA, 2.33 FIP, 110.1 IP (26 G, 20 GS), 34.7% K, 8.8% BB
A dip-and-drive pitcher with a quick arm action and a limited arsenal with a flat plane have given Johnson a reliever projection most of his minor league career, but his success speaks for itself. Johnson has a fastball that continues to be difficult for batters to see. It sits around 94 as a starter and can ramp up to 98, but talking about the fastball buries the lede. Johnson’s slider passed the test of Double-A in part because he was able to throw it fast and slow to keep hitters off balance. Accordingly, he hasn’t really needed a third pitch just yet, but there’s a change up in development for problematic lefties.
6. Daniel Pierce, SS
19 | R/R | 6’0” | 185
The 14th overall pick in the 2025 draft, Pierce is a preternatural defender at short stop, with a top flight glove that could rival any player in the organization. Early reports say he’s already started building muscle as a professional, which is helpful for his projection on offense. His hit tool carries, with a swing similar to Bobby Witt Jr. — out of the draft he received comps of a “faster Dansby Swanson.” A coach’s son, he has the good face, and should get the starting role in the Holy City and have plenty of time to develop into or above his projection of an above average regular.
7. Jadher Areinamo, INF
22 | R/R | 5’8” | 160
A+ (MIL) | .255/.316/.397 (126 wRC+) 415 PA, 11 HR, 15 SB, 8.2% BB, 11.6% K
AA (TB) | .255/.316/.697 (111 wRC+) 159 PA, 4 HR, 6 SB, 7.5% BB, 11.9% K
VEN | .364/.420/.692 162 PA, 13 HR, 5 SB, 8.6% BB, 12.3% K
Acquired in return for Danny Jansen at the 2025 trade deadline, Arienamo was promoted straight to Double-A by the Rays, and his success at that level carried over into the Venezuealan winter league, where his 1.112 OPS and 13 HR were each the second highest marks in the league and earned him the ROY award. He’s considered to have a high baseball IQ, strong motor, excellent bat control, and defensive flexibility, any one of which could earn him an entertaining major league debut.
8. TJ Nichols, RHP
24 | 6’5” | 190
A+ | 3.63 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 96.2 IP (19 G, 18 GS), 30.4% K, 5.4% BB
AA | 0.97 ERA, 2.27 FIP, 37.0 IP (6 GS), 28.0% K, 6.8% BB
A sixth rounder from 2023, Nichols entered the Rays organization with low mileage and control issues, a match made in development heaven. Fast forward to 2025, and his 68% strike percentage ranked 10th best among all minor league pitchers with 100 innings, according to Baseball America. His breaking ball is a big fish in a little pond thanks to its two-plane movement. By my eye, he has a mid-90’s dead zone-ish fastball with easy, over the top heat, and a classic but inconsistent change up. Despite all his gains in control it’s his command that might hold him back, but he fills the zone and might be able to eat innings, which is enough for a back end starter floor. If you’re buying stock, he’s Kimberly-Clark.
9. Michael Forret, RHP
22 | 6’3” | 190
A+ (BAL) | 1.51 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 59.2 IP (16 G, 15 GS), 33.5% K, 7.5% BB
AA (BAL) | 1.88 ERA, 2.03 FIP, 14.1 IP (3 GS), 15 K, 3 BB
A product of the State College of Florida Manatee – Sarasota (formerly Manatee Junior College), Forret was a well above slot ($450k) 14th round draft choice in 2023 and arrives via the Shane Baz trade. Despite missing some time to a back injury in 2025, his array of fastballs and breaking balls already look major league ready. He seems adept at trying new things, as he picked up a whiff-worthy kick change in 2024, and is already tinkering with a Rays-like sweeper, both through his offseason program at Tread Athletics. He has a low release point (below 6 feet) but a rising fastball, and has — to quote Eric Longenhagen — “sensational feel.” Forret pitches with efficiency and variety, and could climb the ladder quickly in 2026.
10. Santiago Suarez, RHP
21 | 6’2” | ?
A+ | 2.88 ERA, 2.07 FIP, 40.2 IP (10 GS), 26.9% K, 3.6% BB
AAA | 5 ER (9 H, 2 BB, 3 HR) 11.0 IP (2 GS), 9 K
Suarez climbed the ladder to Triple-A to finish a short season, as some triceps/shoulder issues hampered his 2025, but when called upon this Venezuelan strike-thrower has earned the trust of his managers to go out there and pitch. He has two plus fastballs, with easy heat but average ride on the 4-seam, and a hard cutter with tight bite. His only complimentary pitch thus far is a 12-6 curve, which makes it a fairly vertical arsenal. He gets good extension, although I’d be remiss to not mention the double pump in his plant leg that on first glance looks like noise, but has led to evident repeatability. What Suarez boasts in control he might lack in command. Right now it’s a supinator’s profile with an average arm slot. To progress he either needs to add some east-west depth to his arsenal (à la Chris Bassitt), or find ways to unlock the spin rates a touch more (Shane Baz). I’d expect him to slot into Montgomery’s rotation as one of the younger starters for his level.
11. Anderson Brito, RHP
21 | 5’10” | 155
A+ (HOU) | 3.28 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 49.1 IP (12 GS), 31.1% K, 13.4% BB
AFL | 11.1 IP, 6 H, 7 BB, 22 K
Acquired in the Brandon Lowe trade, Brito has three plus pitches with a fastball that touches 100 with cut-ride, and two breakers in a mid-80s curveball with surprising depth and a mid-80s slider he commands best. He also mixes in a developing low-90s cutter and a scattershot but intriguing mid-80s changeup with strong velocity and movement separation, with some added deception from his smaller frame helping limit hard contact. The concern is control, as he’s posted below-average strike rates in A-ball across 2024–25 and lacks consistent feel outside the slider, leaving him to project as a slightly wild, high-leverage reliever for now. Still, with multiple plus pitches, improved durability, and meaningful command gains, he has mid-rotation starter upside, giving him possibly the widest range of outcomes on this list. Baseball Prospectus describes him as having “Shohei Ohtani’s stuff with Johnny Cueto’s body.”
12. Xavier Isaac, 1B
22 | L/L | 6’3” | 240
AA | .201/.366/.446 (144 wRC+) 175 PA, 9 HR, 1 SB, 19.4% BB, 29.7% K
Isaac had his season cut short large-in-part due to the discovery of a brain tumor, disrupting an otherwise great start to the season that duplicated his cup of coffee in Double-A as a 20-year old, despite some minor arm injuries along the way. He has the best power projection in the system, and if he can hold his own for a full season in 2026 — particularly against southpaws, which is somewhat of a concern — the former first round pick (29th overall, 2021) could see his status restored near the top of the Rays prospect rankings.
13. Caden Bodine, C
22 | S/R| 5’10” | 200
A (BAL) | .326/.408/.349 (133 wRC+) 49 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB, 5 BB, 8 K
Drafted 30th overall in 2025, Bodine was acquired in the Shane Baz trade. He profiles as a relatively safe prospect thanks to 60 grade bat-to-ball skills, and comfortably-plus blocking and receiving behind the plate. There is some concern that his smaller frame limits him to fringe power, but those concerns are off-set by solid plate discipline from both sides of the plate; his sweeter swing is left handed. All catching prospects will see their value proposition shift with the challenge system, but his defensive actions, leadership, and receiving give him real value, projecting him as a solid major league contributor.
14. Brendan Summerhill, OF
22 | L/R | 6’3” | 200
A | .333/.429/.444 (160 wRC+) 42 PA, 0 HR, 5 SB, 6 BB, 5 K
Following an All-Star performance at the Cape Cod summer league, Summerhill exhibited some of the best bat-to-ball skills in NCAA as a junior at Arizona. His draft stock took a minor hit due to injury (broken hand from from punching a cooler) and was drafted 42nd overall, but Summerhill rebounded well with a dominant stop at Charleston to finish the year. Summerhill has plus barrel control, allowing for a high-contact approach for his long swing. He has plus speed as well, which provides a chance to stick in center. Evaluators would like to see more power to complete a five-tool profile. Even if the power doesn’t materialize, it’s an above average contributor’s projection.
15. Slater de Brun, OF
18 | L/L | 5’10” | 187
Drafted 37th overall in 2025, through a draft pick traded by the Rays, de Brun was essentially re-acquired in the Shane Baz trade. Like many Rays outfield prospects he’s not expected to develop much power, but compensates with an ability to hit to all fields, and has the benefit of years to develop. His hit tool rates plus thanks to a quick, compact swing, and his double-plus speed elevates both his baserunning and range in center; he has a solid arm and can stick long term. The key to his development will be improving pitch selection to maximize his power potential. Despite not yet playing in a pro game, he’s a good bet to skip the complex league and debut in Charleston this season.
16. Nathan Flewelling, C
19 | L/R | 6’2” | 200
A | .229/.393/.336 (126 wRC+) 439 PA, 6 HR, 9 SB, 20.3% BB, 27.6% K
A+ | 22 PA, 4 H, 5 BB, 6 K
The 94th overall pick from 2024, Flewelling made his debut at 18 years young and caught a full season (75 C, 26 DH), plus a five game cup of coffee (3 C, 2 DH). Taking the longview, he could grow into 50-60 grade power with 50 grade defense, which makes him one to follow. His plus zone awareness at the plate offsets his lagging contact, and most importantly for the position his ability to call games and frame pitches are already plus. A strong season with the bat at High-A could vault him into Top-100 consideration.
17. Trevor Harrison, RHP
20 | 6’4” | 225
A | 2.61 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 82.2 IP (17 GS), 22.4% K, 10.7% BB
A+ | 3.33 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 24.1 IP (5 GS), 23.8% K, 12.4% BB
Harrison entered the season as Baseball America’s top pitcher in the system thanks to a cleaned up delivery and high heat. He ran into some bumps in the road by running up his pitch count against batters, but he still made it over 100 innings in 22 starts. A power pitcher through and through, his hard slider flirts with cutter classification and could evolve into two distinct pitches down the road. It will be interesting to see how his change up plays as he’s challenged at higher levels, but for now he has premium stuff and the upside of a rotation anchor. (video)
18. Jose Urbina, RHP
20 | 6’3” | 180
A | 2.05 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 92.1 IP (19 GS), 26.4% K, 8.2% BB
A+ | 2 ER (2 HR), 4.0 IP (1 GS), 5 K, 0 BB
Good pitchers grow and adjust, and Urbina has done that consistently at an age young for his level. Physically he has grown in strength, sitting at 96 with the fastball after flashing high octane in 2024, and technically he has grown, refining his dialed up slider and his two-plane curveball into complementary pitches — which lack plus command but are thrown with feel. He shouldered a starter’s workload at 19, and was awarded one additional start at High-A, where he allowed two solo shots and struck out five. Overall, the age, body, and body of work have him on the trajectory of top prospect lists in the near future.
19. Tre’ Morgan, 1B/LF
23 | L/L | 6’0” | 215
AAA | .274/.398/.412 (119 wRC+) 402 PA, 8 HR, 8 SB, 15.9% BB, 19.2% K
Morgan continued to hit without power in 2025, a great discouragement for some evaluators, but his present 50-grade hit tool and feel for the zone allow a major league projection. He continued his improved, quieter two-strike approach in 2025 that built on his success retooling his swing in the AFL last year. The Rays gave Morgan 14 starts in Left Field last season, and Baseball America called the defense “playable,” but his value is tied to his plus-plus defense at First.
20. Jackson Baumeister, RHP
23 | 6’4” | 224
AA | 4.62 ERA, 4.15 FIP (15 GS) 62.1 IP, 19.5% K, 9.6% BB
AFL | 6 ER (1 HR), 9.0 IP (4 G, 3 GS), 10 K, 9 BB
A shoulder injury derailed what should have been Baumeister’s coming out party, as his previously plus breaking ball was expected to carve up Double-A. After a tough start to the year and two months on the sidelines, Baumeister returned in August and salvaged the season with a brilliant finish. The tough luck continued, however, in the Arizona Fall League, where a line drive struck him in the head, but he escaped without significant injury. Currently, Baumeister has taken on a fastball/slutter profile, with a slow curve in his back pocket, and has shown teachability and pitchability over the years. The former Seminole currently thrives on his frequently used major league fastball that may be better challenged by a promotion to Triple-A.
21. Aidan Smith, OF
21 | R/R | 6’2” | 190
A+ | .237/.331/.388 (114 wRC+) 459 PA, 14 HR, 41 SB, 11.5% BB, 31.2% K
Acquired in the Arozarena trade, Smith became the prince who was promised, a five tool athlete with a strong bat, good face, and a preternatural glove in center field. That promise unraveled a bit in 2025, with his strikeout rate rocketing nine percent and his power stroke faltering after facing harder velocities in High-A, causing both his hit and power grades to drop into the 40’s. It was a full transformation into a “center field” profile, but with his ceiling that’s not a compliment. He plays with a fire, but the dip in contact rate left some evaluators feeling burned.
22. Homer Bush Jr., OF
24 | R/R | 6’3” | 215
AA | .301/.375/.360 (122 wRC+) 546 PA, 0 HR, 57 SB, 8.8% BB, 17.9% K
Acquired in the 2024 Jason Adam trade, the starting center fielder at Double-A passed the test of advanced pitching, but just barely. He lacks in-game power due to a lack of use of his lower half in his swing, and he whiffed more often than you can for long term success with a low-power approach. His calling cards are Rays-grade defense and plus-speed, having notably swiped 57 bags in back-to-back seasons.
23. Dom Keegan, C
25 | R/R | 6’0” | 210
AAA | .241/.306/.429 (89 wRC+) 297 PA, 10 HR, 0 SB, 8.1% BB, 30.6% K
Keegan is at an inflection point in his minor league career, having joined the 40-man roster as the third catcher, and overall the jury is still out. Trusted more at first base than backstop at Vanderbilt, the Rays have kept him behind the dish but reports still have his defense below average, and 2025 was a wash after an elbow injury in the Spring sank his season, in particular his bat speed. While the lack of progress on the edges of his game has some evaluators calling into question his once-sure major league projection, he’ll get a long look in Spring Training, where his ability to punish mistakes in the zone may flourish.
24. Gary Gill Hill, RHP
21 | 6’2” | 160
A+ | 3.82 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 136.2 IP (25 GS), 18.8% K, 5.3% BB
A groundballer, Gill Hill was a feather in the cap for the Rays scouting department when snagged in the sixth round in 2022. He raised his armslot in 2024 to great success, but got off to a rocky start in 2025, which muddies the water on his statline. On the whole, GGH has the body and the look to be a major league starter, particularly thanks to a plus fastball in the upper 90’s and plus control, but needs to find a longterm solution for opposite handed hitting as he climbs the ladder. Accordingly, he projects as a reliever until his arsenal finds a plus third pitch.
25. Brailer Guerrero, OF
20 | L/R | 6’1” | 215
A | .249/.338/.399 (119 wRC+) 222 PA, 6 HR, 9 SB, 11.3% BB, 29.3% K
AFL | 2 H, 0 HR, 2 SB, 3 BB, 16 K, 29 PA
Good news: the $3.7 million 2023 signee made the leap out of the complex league in his final teenage season. Bad News: He was injured yet again, with hamstring and knee injuries limiting him to 51 games for Charleston. The Rays tried to make up for lost time with an aggressive assignment to the AFL that resulted in only two hits in 29 plate appearances. He makes loud contact from a quick, quiet swing which he pre-loads by reaching back for even more power. He appears to make early decisions to swing, leading to a bit extra whiffs against anything off-speed, but that could easily clear up with some consistent playing time.
26. Brayden Taylor, 2B/3B
24 | L/R | 6’0” | 180
AA | .173/.289/.286 (77 wRC+) 437 PA, 8 HR, 17 SB, 14% BB, 27.7% K
AFL | .264/.400/.472 (.384 wOBA) 65 PA, 1 HR, 5 SB, 12 BB, 19 K
Taylor entered 2025 as a top-100 prospect after demolishing High-A (154 wRC+), and left 2025 as an afterthought on prospect lists, although he was selected as an Arizona Fall League “Fall Star” in between, where he worked to keep his chase rate low and his hard hit rate high. The juice must have been worth the squeeze, as the Rays have elected to invite Taylor to major league Spring Training this year.
27. Adrian Santana, SS
20 | S/R | 5’11” | 155
A+ | .263/.324/.326 (94 wRC+) 409 PA, 2 HR, 47 SB, 8.6% BB, 12.0% K
Once a top-ten or so prospect in 2024, Santana fell off our site’s 2025 list after failing to clear as an honorable mention. Why? The switch-hitting slick fielding short stop was the Rays 31st overall pick in 2023 but has delivered sub-100 wRC+ each stop of his career, although that got closer than ever last season, his third as a professional and his third as a teenager in the Rays system. Could expectations be too high on his bat? He has plus athleticism, is learning to wheelhouse, and has “acrobatic” defense at the hardest position in the game, with 98 swiped bags over the last two seasons. What happens if he survives the test of Double-A breaking balls?
28. Austin Overn, OF
23 | L/R | 6’0” | 175
A+ (BAL) | .242/.367/.386 (127 wRC+) 341 PA, 8 HR, 43 SB, 15.5% BB, 28.2% K
AA (BAL) | .266/.326/.427 (112 wRC+) 136 PA, 5 HR, 21 SB, 6.6% BB, 25.0% K
Acquired in the Shane Baz trade, Overn was once a top draft prospect after committing to baseball over football at USC, but surprisingly struggled as a draft-eligible sophomore. That didn’t stop Baltimore from taking him in the third round (97th overall) in 2024. Now a professional, Overn overhauled his swing in the first half of 2025, and earned an early promotion to Double-A for his efforts, where he didn’t look overmatched. His biggest threat is his speed, which raises his floor and gives him an easy projection to a major league bench thanks to plus defensive instincts (BA gave 70’s to his run and field tools). His offensive profile is buoyed by his ability to work the count, but evaluators would like to see him punish fastballs more often for him to be considered a regular.
29. Taitn Gray, 1B/OF/C
18 | S/R | 6’4” | 220
The Rays 86th overall pick in 2025, Gray fell to the third round due to some concern about whether he will stick at catcher, but that buries the lead. Still just 17 at the time of the draft, Gray showed up to the Rays organization and proved his rumored power was real, running exit velocities up to 115 mph from both sides of the plate, although the left handed swing is sweeter. He has plus athleticism, which elevated his bat speed, foot speed, and fluidity — despite his size. It will be interesting to see where the Rays deploy him on defense, but it’s a great bat to dream on.
30. Victor Valdez, SS
17 | R/R | 6’1” | 186
A pretty swing with a low whiff rate earned Valdez a big payday this winter — $3.5 million — with as good of a power projection as you can reasonably ask for from a a teenage bat, having been given a 25+ home run projection by Baseball America, who also praise his plus foot speed, bat speed, and control of the zone. Reports say he has ever improving lateral movements on defense, with smooth actions and a strong arm. If it all clicks, it’s a middle-of-the-order bat on the left side of the infield. At signing, the Rays gave him a comp to Francisco Lindor. It will be interesting to see if his first professional season can solidify the five tool profile.
Honorable Mention
Cooper Flemming, SS
19 | L/R | 6’3” | 190
One of the best high school bats in the 2025 draft, Flemming surprisingly fell into the Rays laps in the second round. He has a too-quiet swing that lacks the load necessary to hit for power, but he’s historically compensated for that with a high contact rate that would have rated him as first round material if his defense projected to stick. The Rays were able to convince him to forgo an education at Vanderbilt by going above slot ($2.3m, Comp-A money).
Dean Moss, OF
19 | L/R | 6’0” | 180
Signed well above slot out of the 2025 draft at No. 67 overall, Moss’s family moved from California to the Tampa Bay Area to enroll Moss at IMG, and it earned him a new-home-town selection. A jack of all trades, Moss’s hit tool shades his best thanks to plus bat speed. His swing is clean, with and the projection for his power over time is major league average. He will have competition internally to stick at center, but may get the first nod in the rookie league.
Émilien Pitre, 2B
23 | L/R | 5’11” | 185
A+ | .268/.356/.393 (122 wRC+) 524 PA, 9 HR, 14 SB, 11.6% BB, 20.4% K
The Rays 58th overall pick in 2024, Pitre has risen on draft boards through a strong performance in the Cape Cod league in 2023, but the power was a real question mark on his profile. Now given a chance to develop as a professional, he wouldn’t be the first to add muscle. His run and hit tools are plus, with a well coiled swing and solid contact in and out of zone. He’s too old to return to High-A and it be viewed as positive. His power stroke will be the key to his success in 2026.
Alex Cook, RHP
25 | 6’2” | 220
AA | 2.30 ERA, 2.29 FIP, 15.2 IP (13 G), 30.5% K, 5.1% BB
The Rays added Cook to the 40-man roster this off-season to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, despite only throwing 20 innings (if you include four appearances in the complex league) after a slow start to the season. Cook attempted to convert to starting in 2024 and succumbed to a should injury, but bounced back in the bullpen in 2025 throwing 99 mph — and he has shown up to camp continuing to pitch with confidence. He has plus control and command, with stuff that leans into his low release point, including a cut-ride fastball and two-plane slider, and an MLB average cutter to prevent platoon slit problems. He should slot into high leverage for Durham and ride the shuttle in 2026.
Fabricio Blanco, SS
17 | S/R | 5’11” | 161
A bat-first middle infielder, the Venezuelan is an elite prospect within the context of the international signing process, with some believing he’s the best Rays signee this off-season, despite gathering only a $1 million bonus. He can barrel up from both sides of the plate, but may settle into a right handed swing in the long term, with quick hands. He has the ability and instincts to stick at short, with a high-IQ approach and gritty demeanor.
Victor Mesa Jr., OF
24 | L/L | 5’11” | 195
AAA (MIA) | .301/.368/.510 (136 wRC+) 171 PA, 7 HR, 4 SB, 9.9% BB, 16.4% K
MLB (MIA) | 6 H (1 HR), 5 BB, 5 K (81 wRC+) 38 PA
This Cuban power bat already made his major league debut with Miami last year after bouncing back from a spring hamstring injury, and was dealt to the Rays in February. He profiles as a fourth outfielder but has an option remaining, so the organization may send him down for regular playing time and one last chance for something more in development. If not, he’s a center field capable on defense, which goes a long way for a platoon bat. In the running for the nicest guy in baseball.
Maykel Coret, OF
18 | R/R | 6’4” | 187
DSL | .273/.294/.370 (115 wRC+) 188 PA, 2 HR, 15 SB, 12.8% BB, 22.3% K
Tampa Bay’s top signee from the 2025 international class, Coret reported tall and young with a lot of projection. His future depends mostly on his hit tool, with prospect evaluators divided on a player that has a long way to go, but the exit velocity (111 mph) and foot speed are plus for his age. Promisingly, after he had a hot start to his professional career, Coret saw his strikeouts elevate in July, but he got them back under control in the final month. A move to the complex league in 2026 would be aggressive.
Alexander Alberto, RHP
24 | 6’8” | 203
A | 1.98 ERA, 2.55 FIP, 13.2 IP (11 G, 0 GS), 35.2% K, 7.4 BB
A+ | 2.83 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 35.0 IP (31 G, 0 GS), 29.0% K, 11.0% BB
Taken in the Rule 5 draft this off-season, this lanky Dominican fireballer was returned to the Rays organization by the White Sox on March 19 after not making their MLB roster. At FanGraphs, Longenhagen notably compared Alberto to “an Andean condor” that needed five years professionally to finally start throwing strikes, while Fegan compared his throwing motion to a “baby giraffe running for the first time,” given his penchant to tumble off the mound. Alberto’s next step will be locating his 100 mph heat at the top of the zone to challenge more advanced hitters, and continue refining his cutter and slider. In camp with the White Sox, Alberto allowed 10 runs (8 earned) over seven appearances (6.2 IP) with seven strikeouts against 12 hits and four walks.
Jonathan Russell, RHP
21 | 6’1” | 180
CPX | 3 H (2 ER), 0 BB, 2 K, 3.0 IP
A | 2.17 ERA, 2.15 FIP, 37.1 IP (25 G, 0 GS), 30.5% K, 7.3% BB
The Rays signed Russell (no relation to yours truly) out of Cuba in May 2023 at 18, slotting him directly into the DSL team where he made the All-Star roster. The Rays brought him stateside in 2024 and it didn’t go great! He started in the FCL again in 2025 though and in two weeks he was at Charleston, getting 15 appearances as their closer and pitching to a 2.17 ERA, striking out 46 batters in 151 faced (30%) with only 11 walks. Where he should have been thinking about Bowling Green next, the Rays decided to give him some chances in the Arizona Fall League, where he closed out two games in six appearances. It’s majority fastball with some slider, mechanics are solid, if anything I’d like to see him try to get his release point closer to the plate. With his age 21 season coming up, he could be something if/when he adds a third pitch.
Spring Training March 23 Game Thread: Braves at Pirates
The Atlanta Braves are taking on the Pittsburgh Pirates in Bradenton, FL as Spring Training is coming to a close. Originally Spencer Strider was supposed to be getting his final tune up, but we got the unfortunate news that he will be starting the season on the IL with an oblique strain.
With Strider being scratched, Didier Fuentes will get the start to continue one of the best Spring Trainings of all-time. Over his three appearances he has pitched 9.0 innings with seventeen strikeouts and his only baserunner has been a HBP. If all nine innings were pitched in the same game that would be one HBP away from a perfect game.
The lineup today looks like a variation of one we may see in the regular season against a RHP SP if Baldwin gets the day off.
One player of note that is not in the lineup is Dominic Smith. He seems to be on track to making the roster as a platoon option against RHP, but with bringing in Rowdy Tellez to a minors deal, some questioned if that meant that Smith may be the odd man out. Odds seem to lean that it is not the case that Smith lost his chance to crack the Opening Day roster, but it is interesting to not see him today.
The Braves will face off against Carson Fulmer who has only pitched 4.0 innings this spring. In those 4.0 innings Fulmer has yet to allow a base runner. Both appearances were in save situations, not that it maters much in spring.
The Pirates are bringing a lineup that could very well be one that their fans will get to see many times throughout the regular season. In the heart of the order we see old friend Marcell Ozuna hitting cleanup. Offseason acquisition Ryan O’Hearn, who only made twenty-one appearances in RF last season, seems to have found his regular position this year and will stay in the outfield today.
Game Notes
Time: 1:05 EDT
TV: None
Radio: ESPN 103.7/WIFN 1340
AL West Preview – Seattle Mariners Position Players, defending the crown
In years past, we’ve concluded our AL West Previews with the opponents of the Seattle Mariners, letting the 40 in 40 series, various analysis pieces, and our general body of work as a staff stand in for a traditional season preview that, by Opening Day, can feel almost remedial. I cannot stress strongly enough the value of those previews and encourage you to peruse them and return to them over the year.
But readers and commenters have lamented the absence of a formal preview breakdown, and so, for the first time in… a while, the Lookout Landing Season Preview for the Seattle Mariners begins with the bats.
The Sultan of Squat
It’s fitting to ponder the reigning AL West champions from the lineup first. 2025’s M’s position players toted the torch for the ballclub, picking up the slack on the heels of consecutive shortfall seasons largely centered on park-aided pitching excellence. Nothing could’ve been clearer, however, than Cal Raleigh’s 60 homer campaign. Fresh off a five-year extension inked last off-season, the financially-secure backstop delivered one of the greatest seasons by a catcher in baseball history, no qualifier needed. He helmed an injury-riddled pitching staff, anchored a lineup that saw hot streaks rise and fall around him, and came just shy of the first Mariners MVP since Ichiro in 2001.
While his stand-offish moment with Randy Arozarena at the World Baseball Classic raised eyebrows, the players and club seem settled on the matter with genuine-seeming apologies in both directions. More pertinent is whether Raleigh can approach his astounding .247/.359/.589 line, at a 161 wRC+ with 14 steals in 18 attempts and 9.1 fWAR overall. Raleigh made 121 starts in the regular season, plus all 12 of the M’s playoff tilts, totaling over 1,180 innings be-crouched (second-most in MLB to JT Realmuto). With staggering durability, the best catcher in baseball opened new business opportunities for All-Star Auto Glass to insure hot air balloons, seaplanes, and low-flying UFOs, while also taking a beating behind the plate every night to keep M’s pitchers in the game.
It’s fair to expect some regression, but there wasn’t much fluky about Raleigh’s performance. He barreled the ball at an extraordinarily high rate, aligned his swings from both sides of the plate, and instilled a level of deservedly-fearful avoidant pitching from opponents that allow him to walk to first frequently. Expect more greatness from the Big Dumper in 2026.
Outfield of Stars or Scrubs?
Seattle’s outfield features two former Rookies of the Year and 2025 All-Stars. Their fourth outfielder had a 141 wRC+ in half a year of play, and their fifth posted back-to-back 2+ win seasons before an injury-decimated 2025. So is the Mariners outfield the club’s strongest unit, or its most uncertain?
Julio Rodríguez anchors this group with dependability. 2025 saw Julio cut his strikeout rate significantly while managing more power and essentially the same (extremely high) hard hit rate as a season before. In some ways, it was a different preparation of the same dish, as his xwOBA of .348 and xBA of .274 were literally identical to 2024. But the 25 year old Dominican star shortened his swing just a shade, hitting his stride in the second half after a serviceable first half stabilized by an expansionist policy in the No Fly Zone. Beyond that, most impressive from Julio last year was his capacity to post – he led the American League in plate appearances and received just two full games off. His ferocious performance in the ALCS (1.007 OPS) was a fitting cap to his campaign, and he’ll be asked to cover significant ground once more in 2026.
Randy Arozarena and a combination of Luke Raley and Victor Robles will take the primary roles of the corner spots. Just a single PA shy of Julio, Arozarena was a similarly ferrous individual for the M’s, pacing them crucially in the early months. His chilly back half was aggravating, but nothing physically stood amiss and he seems ready for a strong campaign ahead of a likely trip to free agency next winter. Raley and Robles are a star-crossed pair, both blessed with dynamite athleticism and fueled by exemplary work ethics and unflinching commitment to make every play. Their bodies cannot always fully contain – nor protect – their indefatigable spirits, but as long as the quasi-platoon is healthy they have the capacity to provide in every aspect of the game.
Behind this quartet, with the hoped presumption of Dominic Canzone being politely asked to accept the designation of “hitter” without greater scope (ditto for Rob Refsnyder), Seattle lacks an immediate next option. Seattle’s infield is intriguing and agitating by its combination of high-profile prospects like Cole Young, Colt Emerson, and Michael Arroyo, as well as still-novel depth options like Ryan Bliss and Leo Rivas. Their outfield – at least at the big-league adjacent level – lacks similar potency. Arroyo’s outfield seasoning is a response to this, but it’s early days. If Brennen Davis can carry his scorching spring into the Pacific Coast League with health, he’ll likely find his name called given the inconsistent availability of the Raley-Robles duo in years past.
Seattle projects for the best catcher and center fielder in baseball. The rest of the lineup is mostly in the middle, but what this M’s club has in spades at the season’s outset is a decency of depth. If Raley misses time, Canzone moves up. J.P. Crawford’s delayed start only means shifting in more Leo Rivas and Cole Young, who’ve both shown promise. This lineup can afford to cycle and rest itself, as the bench bats – other than a dubious running back of Mitch Garver to back up the Big Dumper – are highly competent. This should be one of the best position player groups in baseball. Playing at T-Mobile Park will always suppress pure offensive output, but it’s reasonable to expect one of the best offenses in the game to be the one lifting the trident.
2026 MLB Team Preview Series: Milwaukee Brewers
Over the last three seasons (and four of the last five), one team has sat atop the National League Central, so it’s become almost customary for those who are paying attention to pick this club to be somewhere in and around the leaders. The postseason has not been as kind to them as their fanbase may have liked it to be, but they’ve been contending every season through a mix of strong offseason upgrades and development from within.
This upcoming season however, despite moving forward with some familiar faces, the Milwaukee Brewers are projected to take a step back from a remarkable 2025 that saw them of all teams finish with the best record in baseball.
2025 record: 97-65 (1st, NL Central)
2026 FanGraphs projection: 81-81 (3rd, NL Central)
By pure wins, the 2025 campaign was the best in Brewers history, as their 97 wins even beat out their 1982 pennant winners and the 2018 squad that took the mighty Dodgers to the brink and lost in Game 7 of the National League Championship Series. In terms of how close these Brewers came to that elusive title though? Well, it’s a different story.
Since that memorable 2018, Milwaukee has struggled to find playoff success though, and it was a breakthrough for now-two-time NL Manager of the Year Pat Murphy that his team won its first playoff series since then last October, topping the division rival Cubs in a five-game NLDS. But they then got thoroughly throttled by the Dodgers in the Championship Series, falling in a sweep. Since then, there have been some changes, and as a result, their projection is far below the results they achieved last year.
The starting rotation has been Milwaukee’s bread and butter for a while now, and over the offseason, they lost arguably the biggest piece of it after trading Freddy Peralta, as he was entering the final year of his contract. He was moved to the Mets along with another pitcher, Tobias Myers. In return, the Brewers received two prospects: right-hander Brandon Sproat infielder Jett Williams. Last season, Peralta finished with a 2.70 ERA, 3.85 xFIP, 204 strikeouts, and 3.6 fWAR in 176.2 innings pitched. He was the rock for a Milwaukee team that had the 10th-best starting pitcher fWAR through 2025. Williams will begin 2026 on the doorstep at Triple-A, but the talented Sproat has made Milwaukee’s rotation, so eyes will be on him from the jump in Peralta’s absence.
The Brewers also traded away infielder Caleb Durbin—yes, the same former Baby Bomber who was sent to Milwaukee for Devin Williams in December 2024—to the Boston Red Sox in a six-player deal. He finished third in National League Rookie of the Year voting, and it was a somewhat confusing move, as Durbin is set to make the Opening Day roster for Boston. Of course, that’s not a huge factor in why the projections look so low for the Brewers, but it’s certainly an important piece of the offseason puzzle for the team — as was their decision to move on from another player who received Rookie of the Year votes, Isaac Collins, though they at least received a strong reliever for him from Kansas City in Angel Zerpa.
Anyway, why are the projections so low on Milwaukee? Well, it’s more that the projections are nuanced, as some of the value that could be made up in the projected win column will have to be made up by those who haven’t proven themselves fully yet, or those who could be on track to improve in 2026.
The first and most essential player for the Brewers, of course, is in the rotation, and that’s the kid known as The Miz: Jacob Misiorowski.
The 23-year-old throws hard. He throws a lot, and his arm talent alone is supremely impressive. Last season, the 6-foot-7, 201-pound right-hander was up-and-down with his numbers and performances, though. In 15 games and 66 innings pitched, Misiorowski finished with a 4.36 ERA and 3.66 xFIP with 87 strikeouts and a 1.5 fWAR, signaling that he might need to figure out a few tweaks to hone his craft fully and dominate like his 99.10mph average velocity fastball might indicate.
Another player to watch in the rotation is 33-year-old Brandon Woodruff. In his last two seasons, he has pitched fewer than 70 innings, and since he will again begin the year on the IL, there are questions about what could be next for him. That being said, Milwaukee felt comfortable enough in him to extend a qualifying offer, and since they knew there was a very real chance that he would accept it (which he did), they understood that this was a rare $22M+ commitment for them. If nothing else, it’s a signal of their optimism in him.
Looking at the roster, a few names stand out for Milwaukee as key to reclaiming their NL Central title. Catcher William Contreras is about as solid a backstop as you can find in today’s MLB. In three seasons with the Brewers, he has a 122 OPS+, and his 111 OPS+ last season was easily the lowest of his three years in Milwaukee. However, over the offseason, Contreras had surgery to repair a fractured left middle finger, which he played through almost all of the season with. So, expecting a bounce back from him is certainly not an unreasonable opinion. We’d also be remiss to mention that old friend Gary Sánchez is Contreras’ backup, and it’s always nice to see Gary in the bigs.
Of course, there’s second baseman Brice Turang, who made his name known last season and played well enough to crack the starting roster for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, where he showed off his bat and excellent defensive skills. And there are other names like 22-year-old Jackson Chourio, who seems to be better at something every time he takes the field, and 25-year-old Sal Frelick, who took another big step in 2025 and tied Contreras for second-highest on the Brewers in fWAR, in the outfield.
And who can forget about Christian Yelich? A player who has not been as lethal as he once was, entering his mid-30s, but someone who can undoubtedly provide juice, presence, and poise to a mostly-young Brewers roster, while still being an above-average player at the plate.
The NL Central will be a fun division to watch, just as it is every year, and even though the projections are down on them, it would hardly be a surprise to see the Brewers back in the mix of things at the top by season’s end. Murphy and Craig Counsell before him made a tradition of helping Milwaukee exceed expectations, and they can certainly do so again.
More Pinstripe Alley MLB team season previews can be found here.
How good will the Cincinnati Reds offense be in 2026?
Per MLB.com’s own glossary, xwOBA is described as a metric “formulated using exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed.”
“xwOBA is more indicative of a player’s skill than regular wOBA, as xwOBA removes defense from the equation.”
It’s an expected stat, meaning that it’s based more on process than actual outcome, but it’s a measure of the quality of offense generated by batters these days. It’s tracking how hard you hit it, whether it’s a liner or grounder, and how fast the player who hit the ball takes off – all things that are pretty vital to just how effective a team’s overall offense should be over a large enough sample to drown out any noise.
During the 2025 MLB season, the Cincinnati Reds posted a collective team xwOBA of .300. And while that may be a round number that makes you think “huh, that’s average,” in this case it decidedly is not. That .300 xwOBA ranked 28th among the 30 MLB clubs last year, 3rd worst ahead of only the punchless Cleveland Guardians and, yes, the woeful Colorado Rockies.
The 2025 Reds offense was mediocre in a number of metrics beyond that one, even though it’s a pretty straightforward indicator of how lacking their lineup truly was. They ranked just 24th overall in wRC+, 24th in ISO, 28th in Statcast’s Hard Hit %, and dead last in EV90, per FanGraphs, though still managed to rank 7th in BABIP (.298) somehow.
In other words, they didn’t hit the ball very hard, very well, or even end up getting lucky. It was an offense that lacked real thump for the season and was ultimately their downfall next to their pretty spectacular set of starting pitchers.
The question today, though, is whether they’ve done enough to make that significantly better in 2026.
They’ll have a fully healthy Elly De La Cruz again, which will help tremendously. They brought in Eugenio Suárez in free agency to add some legitimate thump to the lineup, and that, too, should boost things. Sal Stewart has all the hallmarks of an offensive powerhouse in the makings, and adding his bat to this group for a full season will hopefully skew it in a positive direction.
They’ll also be getting a full season out of Ke’Bryan Hayes, though. The former Pittsburgh Pirates 3B came over at the trade deadline, and out of the 145 MLB hitters who qualified with enough PA last season, he ranked 145th in xwOBA at just .282. Staring at the bottom of that leaderboard will also, sadly, let you see Matt Mclain (.291, 5th worst), Spencer Steer (.293, 7th worst), and old friend Gavin Lux (.299, tied for 9th worst), a pretty clear indication that either Cincinnati’s overriding philosophy was outright trash or a number of players who are poised to play key parts in 2026 simply weren’t up to par at all last season.
I like to think this offense will be improved from last year, but it’s hardly an overwhelming sentiment the deeper into it I look.
What do you think? Will the 2026 Cincinnati Reds swing the bats with more force and effect than they did just last year?
AL Central Preview: The Chicago White Sox should be peskier in 2026
Today marks the end of our AL Central preview series. The Chicago White Sox may have drawn first pick in the draft lottery, but their 60 wins were only good for the final entrant here. Unlike previous years, though, the White Sox are full of young, interesting hitters. While they aren’t likely to set the world on fire, a few breaking out could have the team pushing .500 like last year’s something or other Athletics.
Projected Record and Team Summary
Yet again, the project systems agree here: the Chicago White Sox are likely to be pretty poor again this year. PECOTA projects a 68-94 record, while the Depth Charts have them at 69-93. Both are sizable improvements from the 2025 squad that went 60-102,, their third straight season with at least 100 losses. Much of that improvement comes from a new, exciting lineup of youngsters with the potential to be pretty solid instead of a group of veteran placeholders plus Luis Robert.
That’s right, after three years of talking about it, the White Sox finally bit the bullet and traded Robert; in return, they got Luisangel Acuna and a low-minors pitching prospect for their mercurial superstar. They also made a shocking strike for NPB star free agent Munetaka Murakami when the rest of MLB decided they actually didn’t want the 26 year old who averaged about 35 HRs per season the last 6 years in Japan. Instead of the huge payday he was expected for, Murakami settled for 2 years with the White Sox to hopefully prove he can hit major league pitching, too. That’s a boon for Chicago.
The Sox also made a few other trades, most notably bringing in Jordan Hicks and David Sandlin in a salary dump from Boston. Otherwise, they spent the winter making marginal improvements in free agency and on the waiver wire. Seranthony Dominguez, Austin Hays, Sean Newcomb, and Erick Fedde are fine veterans to add to a young team and Anthony Kay is an interesting import from overseas. None are likely to impact the team like Murakami should, but they add some much-needed stability to an otherwise unproven team.
Greatest Strength: Young Offense
Don’t look now, but the White Sox had a downright respectable offense in the second half last year. An emphasis on young bats in the draft and in trade returns has mostly panned out. Chase Meidroth, Colson Montgomery, Kyle Teel, Luisangel Acuna, and Edgar Quero are all players with club control that have a role on a winning team. Montgomery and Teel in particular look like full time starters, as the rookie shortstop hit 21 HRs over 71 games and the rookie catcher posted a .786 OPS after his June 6 debut. They then went and added the best power hitter in the NPB, 26 year old Munetaka Murakami, on a two year deal after his market failed to develop. We’ll see how prescient concerns about his whiff rates really are this season. Plus, Braden Montgomery, a power hitting college outfielder from the 2024 draft class, is poised for a quick ascent through the upper minors if Chicago so chooses.
The rest of the lineup isn’t particularly special. Chicago has done a nice job of acquiring former top prospects who have struggled for cheap, like Curtis Mead or Miguel Vargas, so their bench has a surprising amount of upside. At the same time, Lenyn Sosa, Austin Hays, and Andrew Benintendi are veteran roster filler. The best case scenario for these guys is a minor trade at the deadline, hopefully clearing a roster spot for a prospect at the same time. Otherwise, their job is to not be horrible and try to show the rookies the ropes as they matriculate up from the minors. This is almost certainly a few pieces short of a good lineup, but there’s enough here to be very, very interesting.
Greatest Weakness: Starting Pitching
If you had to squint to see an offensive core, you’ll be looking even harder for the pitching staff. The major league roster is about 8 arms short of competent. The starting rotation has little ceiling or depth, as Rule 5-breakout Shane Smith was the only starter under a 4.00 ERA last year. Chicago did backfill with some veteran SPs, Erick Fedde and Anthony Kay, but that’s about it. Davis Martin is a fourth year MLB starter who doesn’t get enough strikeouts to offset his walks and his hard contact and Sean Burke had a 4.59 ERA as a starting pitcher. As a team, the White Sox struggled with walks and home runs, an unenviable combo, and did very little to remedy that.
The bullpen isn’t in much better shape. Seranthony Dominguez, Jordan Hicks, and Jordan Leasure are solid bullpen arms, but at this point in their careers profile a few pegs lower in the totem pole than closer and main setup arms for a contender would. Otherwise, the bullpen should have a lot of moving parts aside from Jedixson Paez, a depth starter Chicago nabbed from Boston in the Rule 5 draft. When prospects like Noah Schultz, Hagan Smith, and Nick Sandlin are ready, expect them to push some of the current starters into the bullpen. Until that happens, this is a pretty uninspiring group.
X-Factor: Munetaka Murakami and Noah Schultz
Sometimes the X-Factor decision is easier than others. Picking Murakami here is one of those: I’m not sure there’s another player in the division, or maybe all of the majors, with a wider range of outcomes and expectations. Murakami started the winter as an international superstar and a top free agent but found shockingly little interest from American teams after a strikeout-heavy performance in the NPB. Of course, he also hit 22 home runs in 56 games, 5thmost in the league despite playing less than half the season.
After almost every team declined to pursue him in earnest, the White Sox swooped in with a 2 year, $34M contract. Murakami reportedly has struggled with velocity, but he didn’t see much of it overseas and has hit for plenty of power in Spring Training so far. The ceiling here is something like Kyle Schwarber or Giancarlo Stanton, where huge power and a good batting eye cover for some serious contact issues. If the strikeouts become untenable, the whole profile could collapse to something like 2021 Keston Hiura. We won’t know until we know, but adding this much upside for only $17M a year is very smart for a team with no pressure to win this year.
There were a lot of candidates for the second name here, but I chose Noah Schultz because the White Sox desperately need some pitching. In 2025, their best pitcher was Rule 5 pick Shane Smith, and while breakouts from the Rule 5 are always a boon, it isn’t a good sign if your best pitcher has a 3.81 ERA. Schutlz is a candidate to debut this year and add immediate upside to Chicago’s staff. As a 6’10 lefty, the Randy Johnson comparisons are inevitable and unfair, but Schultz is no slouch. His 70-grade slider leads the way of a strikeout-heavy profile and he can get up to 98 MPH on his heater. He can get out of sync and rack up a lot of walks, but the stuff is irrefutable. He still needs some refining in the minors before they unleash him on the league. Once he proves himself against AAA hitters and shows some command development, he’ll be an exciting arm for Chicago to build around.
For the first time in a while, the Chicago White Sox are an interesting baseball team. The makings of an offensive core are in place; an unsuspecting pitcher is liable to get burned if they try to sleepwalk their way through Chase Meidroth, Colson Montgomery, and Munetaka Murakmi gauntlet in the first inning. The pitching is still in tough shape outside of All-Star Shane Smith, but help is on the way from Hagan Smith and Noah Schultz. It’s a shallow roster, to be sure, but there’s enough good players that Chicago posting a solid season and becoming more irritant than pushover should no longer feel like a surprise.
Ranking every Mets team of the last decade
It's been an eventful decade of Mets baseball, with the 2016 through 2025 seasons running the gamut.
Below, we rank every season in terms of not just performance, but enjoyment...
10. 2017: 70-92, 4th in NL East
This was not only the worst Mets team of the decade, but one of the most disappointing. After the club went to the World Series in 2015 and made the playoffs again in 2016, this version faltered badly.
It was brought down by a subpar offense, a post-thoracic outlet surgery Matt Harvey not being the same, and an especially poor season from Zack Wheeler -- who had a career-worst 5.21 ERA and also dealt with injuries, including a stress fracture that ended his year in August.
9. 2020: 26-34, 4th in NL East
The COVID season was shortened, strange, and distant, with fans not allowed in any ballpark for most of it.
On the field, the Mets won their first game and then spent the rest of the season at or below .500. They were within 3.0 games of first place as late as Aug. 29, and had some fun moments (including Amed Rosario's walk-off homer at Yankee Stadium), but this was a team and season to forget.
8. 2023: 75-87, 4th in NL East
Coming off a 101-win campaign the year prior, the Mets let Jacob deGrom go to the Rangers via free agency and added Justin Verlander to pair with Max Scherzer at the top of the rotation. But following a 14-7 start, things fell apart.
After falling to 36-46 on June 30, New York went on a bit of a run to push their record to 50-55 on the eve of the trade deadline. But that wasn't enough to stave off a sell-off that sent Verlander to the Astros and Scherzer to the Rangers.
7. 2021: 77-85, 3rd in NL East
This squad had the pieces to be competitive, and they had a solid first half of the season, going 48-40.
But they struggled after the All-Star break in Francisco Lindor's first year in Queens, due in part to an injury that ended Jacob deGrom's season after his start on July 7, when he had a 1.08 ERA and was steamrolling toward a truly historic season.
6. 2018: 77-85, 4th in NL East
The 2018 Mets had the most nondescript offense of the last decade, which was devoid of stars and had just one batter with more than 18 home runs (Michael Conforto's 28). Still, the team started the year 13-4 before faltering and falling out of contention.
They had a very good rotation fronted by an otherworldly deGrom, who led the majors with a 1.70 ERA over 217 innings as he won his first Cy Young award. The deGrom factor alone made the team interesting.
5. 2025: 83-79, 2nd in NL East
The 2025 Mets, with Juan Sotoin tow and fresh off an NLCS run, had the best record in baseball in the middle of June and appeared like a sure bet to reach the postseason.
Instead, New York suffered a slow collapse (with the starting rotation being the main culprit) and wound up missing the playoffs. A few months later, the core was broken up, with Pete Alonso and Edwin Diaz leaving via free agency, and Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil traded.
4. 2016: 87-75, 2nd in NL East, lost in Wild Card Game
A year after reaching the World Series for the first time since 2000, the Mets had high hopes and a vaunted rotation. But the starting staff was shaken when Harvey needed surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome.
Still, the club persevered, led by Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, and Asdrubal Cabrera on offense, and a still-emerging Noah Syndergaard, who had a 2.60 ERA and struck out 218 in 183.2 innings.
But Syndergaard and the Mets were taken down by Madison Bumgarner and the Giants in the Wild Card Game at Citi Field.
3. 2019: 86-76, 3rd in NL East
The 2019 Mets provided a breath of fresh air sandwiched between four losing seasons.
With an offense led by Alonso, who hit a rookie record 53 home runs, Conforto (.856 OPS), and J.D. Davis (.895 OPS), and a rotation was again headed by deGrom -- who won his second Cy Young in as many seasons -- this club was fun and meshed well.
They went on a tremendous run over the summer, ripping off a 27-9 stretch to push their record to 67-60 and put themselves in playoff contention on Aug. 22. Ultimately, they couldn't get over the hump.
2. 2022: 101-61, 2nd in NL East, lost in Wild Card Series
The 2022 Mets were dominant until they weren't, as they squandered the NL East late in the season when they were swept on the road in Atlanta -- when just one win would've given them a stranglehold on the division title. With the air out of the balloon, New York fell in three games to the Padres in the Wild Card Series at Citi Field.
Still, a team that wins 101 games is a rarity. And this club got huge seasons from Alonso, Lindor, McNeil (in his batting title year), Nimmo, Starling Marte, Scherzer (2.29 ERA), and Edwin Diaz (who had one of the most dominant relief seasons ever).
If Marte was fully healthy in the postseason, and if Scherzer didn't throw a clunker in Game 1 against the Padres, perhaps things turn out differently.
1. 2024: 89-73, 3rd in NL East, lost in NLCS
After hovering around .500 for most of the season, the OMG Mets caught fire at the end of August and rode a 20-9 stretch to a Wild Card spot that was only clinched when they vanquished the Braves in Game 1 of a doubleheader in Atlanta on the day after the regular season ended -- with Lindor's monster home run being the difference.
The Mets then outlasted the Brewers in the Wild Card Series, with Alonso's three-run homer in the ninth inning erasing a 2-0 deficit in Game 3.
In the NLDS, the Mets took the Phillies down in four games -- punctuated by Lindor's grand slam -- clinching a playoff series at Citi Field for the first time ever.
The magical run came to an end against the Dodgers in the NLCS, with the Mets falling in six games.
What to expect from Tyler Glasnow in 2026
Tyler Glasnow was at his best on Sunday, striking out 11 Angels in five strong innings. His curveball was especially electric, finishing off all 11 of those strikeouts. He induced 13 swinging strikes among the 36 curves he threw, the former matching the most whiffs on that pitch he’s ever gotten in a game, way back on August 25, 2020.
Most importantly, it’s been a relatively normal spring training for Glasnow, who had a standard gradual build up during Cactus League play, pitching into the fifth inning twice before completing five innings on Sunday in Anaheim.
He’s in line to start next Saturday at Dodger Stadium, the finale of a season-opening three-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks. But how many starts will he make this season?
Glasnow pitched 90 1/3 innings and made 18 starts last regular season, but most importantly he was healthy down the stretch and for all of the postseason, after missing the playoffs in his first year with the Dodgers in 2024. Glasnow over the last three seasons averaged 114 2/3 innings and just over 20 starts, and his 21, 22, and 18 starts over the previous three years are his top-three such seasons of his career.
If there’s a caveat heading into this season, outside of the usual injury concern, it’s that Glasnow’s 11.7-percent walk rate last season was his worst in eight years, and much higher than the 7.1-percent walk rate over 2023-24.
Here are his projections entering his age-32 season.
Tyler Glasnow 2026 projections
- Marcel: 118 IP, 3.66 ERA, 28-percent K rate
- Steamer: 24 starts, 139 IP, 3.61 ERA, 28.1 K%
- ZiPS: 20 starts, 105 1/3 IP, 3.76 ERA, 28.6 K%
- THE BAT: 22 starts, 129 IP, 3.97 ERA, 27.2 K%
- OOPSY: 24 starts, 135 IP, 3.39 ERA, 28.2 K%
- PECOTA: 26 starts, 139 2/3 IP, 3.69 ERA, 26.6 K%
Today’s question is how many starts and innings do you expect from Tyler Glasnow in the 2025 regular season?
Spencer Strider to start season on IL with strained oblique, per report
Hey. Hey! I thought today was when we were gonna talk about the Braves Are Doomed, Reynaldo Lopez Edition. Then this happens.
Not too much more to say, really. Injured List, meet Spencer Strider. Spencer Strider, meet the Injured List. Oh, what’s that? You’re already acquainted? In fact, you were already acquainted in these exact circumstances late in the 2022 season, when Strider was shut down with an oblique issue for the last few weeks of the season (but returned to make a playoff start). Well, in that case…
In any case, this probably won’t help the feeling of gross stuff in the gorge for those of you fully subscribed to the Braves Are Doomed feed. This does maybe make the guys-who-are-out-of-options roster math a little easier for the Braves coming out of Spring Training, but it’s also not clear how long Strider will be out. Again, this could be a very minor setback, but Strider’s had enough issues in his brief career so far that nothing seems “very minor” as far as his availability and effectiveness are concerned. Obliques are often talked about as lingering, but that tends to be in the context of hitters — the Braves did feel comfortable giving Strider about two weeks off in 2022 with a similarly-described issue and then throwing him right into a playoff start afterwards. (He was not very good in that start, but there’s no useful way to pin that on the injury or missed time.)
The runway just keeps widening for Didier Fuentes to make some noise. Or, the Braves may pick up some roster cut for additional depth. Maybe this forces Martin Perez into early season plans. Stay tuned.
At this time, the Opening Day rotation is now six Bryce Elders. (Okay, fine, it’s technically Chris Sale, Grant Holmes, Reynaldo Lopez, Elder, and… Fuentes? Perez? What’s Rich Hill doing?)