Category: MLB

The Mariners managed to bounce back from that heart breaking loss on Friday to win the series against the Astros. Combined with the general ineptitude of the rest of the American League, that pair of wins helped Seattle climb to within two games of the final Wild Card spot and four games back in the AL West. The M’s have a trio of interleague matchups on deck beginning with a three-game set in Milwaukee.

The Brewers have unlocked the secret to regular season success: a deep and flexible roster filled with competent players who can fill multiple roles without missing a beat. Oh, and it helps that they have some of the best young players in baseball in Jacob Misiorowski, Jackson Chourio, and Brice Turang leading the way. Whether or not this type of roster can win in October is another matter, but for now, they’re cruising through the regular season with the best record in baseball and the second highest run differential.

Like the Rays, the Brewers’ lineup is anchored by a quartet of superstars. Brice Turang took a huge leap forward last year and has followed up with a season just as good this year. Jackson Chourio is one of the youngest players in baseball but he’s already established himself as one of the better all-around hitters in the game. The other two stars, William Contreras and Christian Yelich, have both struggled a bit this year. This is the second season in a row where Contreras’s production at the plate has slipped significantly. Last year, he played through a fracture in his hand and you have to wonder if that injury fully healed before this season. The rest of the lineup is built a lot like Tampa Bay’s too. There are a ton of role players who are skilled across the board, significantly raising the floor of the roster.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

After getting traded from the Giants to the Red Sox last year and then to Brewers over the offseason, Kyle Harrison has finally settled in and put together a big breakout campaign. He had always had the impressive pedigree as a prospect, but struggled to put everything together across nearly 200 big league innings heading into this season. Milwaukee went right to work, moving him on the rubber to the first-base side, raising his arm angle by five degrees, and helping him unlock a more effective changeup. The results speak for themselves: his 4.75 strikeout-to-walk ratio ranks eighth among qualified starting pitchers.

After giving us tantalizing glimpses of his talent during his injury-wracked stint with the Dodgers, Dustin May has finally put it all together this year. It helps that he’s been completely healthy, keeping him on the mound to tap into that talent. He put up a 12-game stretch earlier this year where he ran a 2.54 ERA and a 2.66 FIP, though his summer has been a bit more up-and-down. The Brewers acquired him at the trade deadline to give them another veteran arm to reinforce their young pitching staff. He’s allowed three runs in 13 innings across two starts with Milwaukee.

Robert Gasser quickly rose through the Brewers farm system after they acquired him in the 2022 Josh Hader trade. He made his major league debut in 2024 but quickly blew out his elbow after just five starts. He made it back to the big leagues late last year after rehabbing from surgery and has been up-and-down with the team this season. He throws from a low slot, creating a ton of deception with some extremely short arm action. Despite his name, he doesn’t throw very hard, instead relying on his deep repertoire and deceptive delivery to find success. His sweeper is probably his best pitch — he throws it as his primary weapon against both left-handed and right-handed batters — and his command is his best tool. There aren’t any standout skills in his profile, but the whole package is a lot better than any individual piece.

The Big Picture:

At one point on Saturday — after all the East Coast games had ended and while the Rangers were still playing the Athletics on the West Coast — there were four teams tied for the final AL Wild Card spot and two others just half a game back. A couple of days later, there are now three teams tied for that last playoff berth, two teams a half game back, and two more within two games. The standings are just a big ol’ shrug emoji.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Padres fans and fans across the country.

Ethan Salas has been the Crown Jewel of the San Diego Padres minor league system since he was signed as an international free agent out of Venezuela in 2023. At the time, Salas was just 16 years old and has essentially grown up in the San Diego system.

Since his signing, Salas has been considered a future star at the MLB level due to his impressive skills on defense and his better than average offense. He has been lauded for his maturity and his ability to work with the Padres pitching staff in Spring Training. There was some thought that Salas could possibly make his MLB debut while still a teenager, but that hope was squashed when he missed all but five games last season with a back injury.

Salas is now 20 years old and is back on track to stardom. He was recently called up from Double-A to Triple-A and since arriving in El Paso with the Chihuahuas he has appeared in 14 games. In that time, Salas has made 53 plate appearances and has logged 20 hits with six doubles, a triple and three home runs. He has also scored 10 runs and driven in 20 runs. Salas has also walked nine times and has one stolen base. He is currently hitting .377 and looks to have adjusted well after moving up a level.

Salas has played well on defense although he has allowed some passed balls, but he made up for those by throwing runners out as well. He is not perfect, and maybe not considered polished, but he has proven he can handle himself at the plate, which was always the question that came up when he was talked about. The best part is, if Salas IS called up to the majors, he will have Freddy Fermin who is a defense-first catcher to help him adjust behind the plate and Luis Campusano, who is an offense-first catcher, to help him in the batter’s box.

The young prospect has been the future for San Diego and with the team pushing to make the playoffs a spark from a young, hungry, talented prospect may be what they need to finish the sprint to the end of the season with a playoff berth. Do you think the Padres should make the call and bring Salas to the majors? That is the question for this week’s Gaslamp Reacts Survey from Gaslamp Ball. Results will be posted later in the week.

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We had noted last week that we’d likely see AJ Smith-Shawver rejoin the team during this week’s four-city road trip, and this has come to pass: not only have the Braves have recalled the 23-year old right-hander, he’s slated to start tomorrow’s Twins series finale. Chris Sale will shift to start the makeup game versus the White Sox.

AJSS back in the rotation, we all cheered. However, we still have Walt Weiss on record sticking with Grant Holmes and musing on if AJ would be the one best suited for the bullpen. We hope it’s not true, but time will tell.

The corresponding move for Smith-Shawver is saying farewell to Tyler Kinley. The Kinley experience truly had its ups and downs, and now this chapter concludes with being designated for assignment. We’ll see if he’s another candidate for the Carrasco/Hernandez cycle.

If anything can pierce through the droning noise of JJ Wetherholt and Sal Stewart's names as they're muttered over and over as the supposed leaders in the National Rookie of the Year race, perhaps it is the sound of Mets right fielder Carson Benge's throws to home plate made on Monday night at Citi Field as they whizzed through the air.

In the first inning against the Padres, Benge came up firing from right field twice. On both occasions, he nailed a San Diego runner trying to score. His second outfield assist, which was clocked at 103.9 mph, capped the frame and sent the crowd of just over 27,000 into a frenzy.

The reaction from Gary Cohen up in SNY's TV booth was a mix of excitement and bewilderment: "Are you kidding me? Stop running on him!" 

As a former pitcher, Benge's arm in the outfield is a serious weapon.

His arm value is in the 95th percentile, with his arm strength in the 99th percentile, via Baseball Savant. And it's Benge's arm that has been grabbing most of the headlines lately.

But he's also been doing serious damage at the plate, hitting .304/.368/.461 (.829 OPS) in 212 plate appearances over the last two months while raising his OPS for the season to .750 and his OPS+ to 109.

So why is Benge viewed as being a distant third in the Rookie of the Year race?

The odds via BetMGM look like this:

JJ Wetherholt: -160
Sal Stewart: +140
Carson Benge: +1400

The betting market and narrative don't align with what's actually happening on the field, with Benge having a higher OPS+ than Wetherholt (109 to 107) and closing in on Stewart (119 OPS+), who doesn't provide nearly as much value defensively as Benge and Wetherholt.

When it comes to Wetherholt, it seems like he was simply anointed the winner after a hot start with the Cardinals that resulted in having an .856 OPS at the end of April.

But since May 1, Wetherholt is hitting just .239/.338/.340 (.678 OPS) in 399 plate appearances.

What makes Wetherholt a unique candidate for ROY is that his second base defense has been spectacular, with him in the 100th percentile and worth 22 OAA, via Baseball Savant -- albeit at a position that is not valued very highly.

As far as Stewart, his power is his best attribute, and he's already smacked 26 homers in 125 games for the Reds. But like Wetherholt, Stewart's offense has taken a step back since a hot start that had his OPS sitting at .943 entering May.

Since then, Stewart is slashing .251/.320/.442. That's still strong production, especially for a rookie catcher. But like Wetherholt, Stewart's hot start built the Rookie of the Year narrative for him.

Defensively, Stewart has been a tick above average when it comes to OAA (+1), but his arm strength (20th percentile) ranks near the bottom of the league.

Benge's season -- at least offensively -- has been the opposite of Wetherholt and Stewart, with him starting incredibly slowly before coming on strong.

After his first three weeks in the majors, Benge was struggling badly, with a triple slash of .136/.219/.197. And he looked a bit overmatched. But the Mets chose to let him work through it instead of sending him to the minors, and the results have spoken for themselves.

Since April 23, Benge is hitting .296/.355/.452 (.807 OPS) with 13 homers, 15 doubles, 46 RBI, and 57 runs scored. So while he's taken it up another notch since June 18 (as mentioned above), Benge has been terrific offensively for roughly four months.

Benge's arm has rated nearly as well as Wetherholt's range/OAA does, but Benge's range/OAA has been just a tick above average (in the 54th percentile), due in part to some misplays earlier this season. That number has improved recently, and better play from Benge in that area down the stretch would make his ROY case even stronger.

Another key metric to watch in the ROY race is wRC+, which measures a hitter's overall offensive value while taking his contributions at the plate and translating them to his impact on runs created for his team.

Here's how things break down in terms of wRC+:

Sal Stewart: 114 Carson Benge: 112 JJ Wetherholt: 107

Given the narrative surrounding the award, it might take a continued surge by Benge and more regression from Wetherholt and Stewart in order for Benge to snag it.

But Benge's name should be firmly in the conversation with the two of them -- not some kind of distant afterthought.

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This is the week that I get back into the black after a great run across August with MLB player props and cashing home run predictions, and what better day to go big than on Dinger Tuesday.

How does one leave Pete Crow-Armstrong off the home run card after last night’s performance, and with today’s matchup? Meanwhile, Wilyer Abreu is the unstoppable force, and Merrill Kelly is the movable object.

These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Tuesday, Aug. 18. 

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Pete Crow-Armstrong	+330
Wilyer Abreu	+425

Home run pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong

I don't mind going chalk when that chalk is MVP betting favorite Pete Crow-Armstrong, who just hit a walk-off extra-inning dinger last night to reach the 30/30 mark and is being priced on the good side of $3. PCA should be shorter than +300 in any matchup that isn't against an elite starter.

Today is anything but an elite starter, as the White Sox are going with lefty opener Bryan Hutson before handing things over to right-hander Erick Fedde, who just lost his rotation spot and is one of the hardest-hit pitchers in baseball, ranking 37th-worst in HardHit% among MLB starters and 21st-worst in Blast Contact%.

The wind is blowing out at Wrigley, and PCA will see some very hittable arms to keep padding those MVP numbers.

He is a buy to +290 today.

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: TBS

Home run pick: Wilyer Abreu (+425)

It's tough to find a hotter hitter this month than Boston's Wilyer Abreu. The lefty bat leads the league in slugging and xwOBA in August, and sits second in ISO. The HardHit% over that stretch is at a Dinger-sexy 62.5%, which is only behind three other hitters. The form is there, and the matchup is the deciding factor.

Merrill Kelly has been hit hard all season and ranks in the Bottom 25 in HR/FB and HR/9 among MLB starters. He is one of a handful of pitchers who rank in the Bottom 25 in all four of my favorite fade categories: HR/9, HR/FB, HardHit%, and BlastCont%. 

It's a great price in an average matchup, but this is elite form vs. a hard-hit pitcher and a number I'd buy to +350.  

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NESN, DBACKS.TV

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Between the sign stealing scheme of recent years, the steroid/PED news cycles of the past couple decades, and the many other scandals through the history of the sport, cheating has always been a hot topic in baseball. Very few of the scandals are as amusing as the “spitball.”

For one, the spitball was legal for quite a while, and even when it was made illegal, some guys were still allowed to use it. While altering the baseball clearly can benefit a starter, the idea of it happening via old fashioned saliva is just an amusing mental image.

One of the fathers of the spitball was Burleigh Grimes, who did have a very brief Yankees’ stint. With today being his birthday, let’s look back at the life and times of “Ol’ Stubblebeard.”

Burleigh Arland Grimes
Born: August 18, 1893 (Emerald, WI)
Died: December 6, 1985 (Clear Lake, WI)
Yankees Tenure: 1934

Grimes was born in Wisconsin in 1893. When the pitcher was still quite young, Grimes’ father passed away, leaving his mother struggling to try and support their family. Eventually, Grimes himself had to help and got a long and strenuous job at a lumber camp. He very nearly died when one stack of logs fell on him, but through good fortune he survived without major injury.

However, Grimes’ love was for baseball, and he developed an affinity for one particular aspect early. Before his early death, Grimes’ father, who had played for several local teams himself, taught young Burleigh how to play. He also had a formative experience while attending a minor league game in neighboring Minnesota. He was dazzled by pitcher Hank Gehring, who was a proponent of the spitball, which was then still legal. Grimes went home and began to practice and tinker with using the spitball in his own game.

Eventually, Grimes became good enough that professional teams began to take notice. When he was 18, he signed his first deal with a Class D minor league team in Eau Claire, Wisconsin. Over the next couple years, he worked his way up, playing for a variety of minor league teams, and generally impressing on the mound. The Tigers held his rights at one point, but they were eventually sold to the Pittsburgh Pirates, who called him up in late 1916.

Grimes spent his first two major league seasons in Pittsburgh. He was a bit up and down and walk happy, so after the 1917 season, the Pirates included him in a trade to the then-Brooklyn Robins. The headliner at the time was the other pitcher Pittsburgh sent to Brooklyn, Al Mamaux, and included future Yankees’ manager Casey Stengel going the other way. But Grimes ended up being the biggest piece of the deal when things were all said and done.

In 1918, Grimes hit the ground running in Brooklyn, posting a 2.13 ERA (130 ERA+) in 270 innings. He took a bit of a step back the following year, but did spend a bit of time away from baseball, serving in the Navy during World War II. He then responded with dominant campaigns in 1920 and ‘21. He would’ve been a Cy Young contender in both seasons had the award existed then.

Grimes soon became a master of the spitball, which he accentuated by chewing slippery elm, saying:

I used to chew slippery elm – the bark, right off the tree. Come spring the bark would get nice and loose and you could slice it free without any trouble. What I checked was the fiber from inside, and that’s what I put on the ball. The ball would break like hell, away from right-handers and in on lefties.

MLB did actually officially ban the spitball following the 1919 season, but a group of pitchers were grandfathered in and could continue using it until their careers ended. Originally, the spitball was set to be banned outright, but Grimes was among those to lead a campaign against this, leading to the grandfathering in. Grimes would be the longest lasting of that group, not retiring until 1934.

Besides the spitball, Grimes could also be a bit ornery on the mound. He was known to throw brush back pitches at opposing batters and purportedly once threw at a hitter who was in the on deck circle. While some disputed this, he could also be somewhat aloof, and had a bad relationship with Dodgers’ manager Wilbur Robinson, who would send others over to talk to the pitcher.

Grimes helped the Dodgers to the 1920 World Series, where they lost with the pitcher struggling a bit in his three starts. While Grimes himself remained mostly good, Brooklyn didn’t get back to the Fall Classic in the next couple years. The team and the player also regularly bickered over salary, and Brooklyn eventually decided to move him to the cross-town New York Giants.

Over the next couple years, despite success in the meantime, Grimes became a bit of a journeyman. He spent just one year with the Giants before going back to the Pirates, where he had two of his career best years in 1928 and ’29. However, more salary disputes led to Pittsburgh trading him to the Boston Braves. He had a bad run there, leading to the Braves trading him to the St. Louis Cardinals. In St. Louis, Grimes got back on track and helped them to the 1930 World Series. Grimes performed much better in that World Series, but his team fell to the Athletics. However, the Cardinals won the NL pennant again the following season, and Grimes put in an arguable MVP performance in the 1931 Fall Classic. He had a 2.02 ERA in his two starts, including allowing just two runs in a Game 7 victory, winning his first and only World Series title.

Despite that, the Cardinals had a loaded rotation and ended up trading Grimes to the Cubs. In Chicago, he helped the Cubs topple the Cardinals in the NL in 1932, but they fell in the World Series to the Yankees in the series that featured the Babe Ruth “called shot.”

Partway through the 1933 season, Grimes was released and returned to the Cardinals. Partway through the following season, he was again released and this time signed with the Yankees. Grimes’ Yankee stint wasn’t particularly notable, as he had a 5.50 ERA in 10 appearances out of the bullpen. His signing was almost certainly just an attempt to see if “Ol’ Stubblebeard” — a nickname gained from Grimes’ habit of not shaving on days he was pitching — still had anything left in the tank. The Yankees also released him, and Grimes returned back to the Pirates, where his MLB career ended following the 1934 season.

After ending his playing career, Grimes remained in baseball. He had a successful run as a minor league manager, earning him the big job with his old Brooklyn Dodgers team in 1937. His Brooklyn teams finished well under .500 in both seasons before they let him go. After further minors managing jobs, he became a scout and a coach for several teams, including back with the Yankees from 1947-52.

Grimes eventually retired back to his native Wisconsin, where he resided until his death in 1985. Before that, he got the honor of being inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1964 via the Veterans Committee. You can definitely debate whether his Hall status is warranted, but there’s no doubt that he was a very big figure in baseball for many years.

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The National League MVP odds race is shaping up for a thrilling finish, as Pete Crow-Armstrong has emerged as a legitimate contender to dethrone Shohei Ohtani, who has won three straight MVPs (one in the AL, two in the NL) since 2023.

The current odds at Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps, have PCA and Ohtani as a virtual coin flip, with both players listed at 50% probability. However, the Chicago Cubs outfielder has a slightly higher cost at 51.7 cents.

If the season ended today, I'd pick PCA, but it's admittedly a narrow margin. This is especially the case after both players brought their best selves to the ballpark on Monday night.

Odds to win 2026 NL MVP 

Player
Pete Crow-Armstrong	-107
Shohei Ohtani	+100

Odds last updated on 8-18. Odds from Polymarket. Use our Polymarket promo code (COVERS) for a $50 trading bonus when you deposit at least $20 as a new user.

The NL MVP odds have fluctuated over the last several weeks. Shohei Ohtani has been favored across the board, but Pete Crow-Armstrong has gradually gained ground.

At the end of July, Ohtani was -156 to win NL MVP, and PCA was +186. That has flipped, and the pair are almost equal to earn the honors.

PCA leads MLB with 2.2 WAR since the All-Star Game, while Ohtani hasn't pitched in nearly two months, limiting his edge.

PCA vs Ohtani: A statistical breakdown

Stat	Pete Crow-Armstrong	Shohei Ohtani
Home runs	30	29
RBI	78	78
Runs scored	89	81
AVG	.281	.295
OPS	.929	.948
SB	31	7
ERA	N/A	1.79
Pitcher strikeouts	N/A	95
Defensive runs saved	14	1
Outs above average	23	N/A
FanGraphs WAR	8.2	7

The case for Pete Crow-Armstrong

Remember when the Chicago Cubs traded half a season of Javier Baez for outfield prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong? New York Mets fans do.

This is the worst-case scenario for trading a top prospect. While PCA's ceiling was always through the roof, you never really know what you're going to get from a 20-year-old who was drafted out of high school, especially during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.

After barely playing in the Mets' organization, PCA immediately flourished for the Cubs, eventually reaching the majors to wrap up the 2023 season. His results were poor, but the future remained bright. He was fine in 2024, showcasing elite speed and defense while scuffling at the plate. He then had a red-hot first half of 2025 before cratering in the summer months.

The question became: will he adjust?

If you are into fantasy baseball, you know there was a lot of skepticism. His highs were bound to be high, a true five-tool talent offering speed and newfound power (he hit 31 home runs and stole 35 bases in 2025), but he also seemed to be a very streaky player.

Well, he seems to have adjusted. He's striking out more, yes, but he's also increased his walk rate by more than 7% year over year. He's aggressive but also selective. And while the .349 BABIP is very high, he's also extremely fast, able to beat out grounders that otherwise might send him back to the dugout.

He's built for the moment. After Shohei Ohtani clubbed two home runs in a game against the Colorado Rockies (at Coors Field, natch), PCA came through in the clutch at Wrigley Field against the crosstown White Sox on Monday night. 

PETE CROW-ARMSTRONG

WALK-OFF HOME RUN FOR 30/30 🤯 pic.twitter.com/TSUSXmb8vi

— MLB (@MLB) August 18, 2026

Huge. He led off the game with his 29th homer and capped it off with a walk-off blast, sending the Wrigley faithful into hysterics.

Offensively, the tale of the tape remains very similar for the two superstars. But I ultimately give PCA the edge because of the defense.

He is the best defensive center fielder in MLB. Ohtani only plays the field when he pitches. When Ohtani won NL MVP as a designated hitter, becoming the first DH ever to win, he hit a career-high 54 home runs while slashing .310/.390/.646. He was undeniable.

Ohtani's offense is really good this year. It'd be disingenuous to say otherwise. But he's not overwhelmingly superior, which opens the door for PCA, who combines similar/equal offensive numbers with truly elite glovework.

The case for Shohei Ohtani

For as good as PCA has been, it still feels somewhat contrarian to take him over Ohtani. That the Los Angeles Dodgers two-way phenom has pitched at all this season, and as effectively as he has, could be seen as enough. Crow-Armstrong is an elite fielder. Even if he's the best, there are several excellent defensive players throughout MLB.

No one other than Ohtani both pitches and hits at a high level of competency. Not now, and not really ever. Not like this.

Before a lingering knee injury pushed Ohtani back to full-time DH duties, he posted a 1.79 ERA with 95 strikeouts in 85 2/3 innings over 14 starts. He was even better over his first 10 starts, boasting a 0.74 ERA while allowing zero earned runs six times. 

He was a legitimate Cy Young candidate. 

Even with the diminished results in his other four starts, Ohtani finished six innings each time. Had he stayed on the mound, I don't think this debate would even happen, and that could be interpreted as an argument in his favor. His numbers are simply too good to allow a technicality to disqualify him. 

Voting against Ohtani may be perceived as a result of voter fatigue, with baseball writers looking for any reason to go elsewhere for the NL's top honor, bored by "The Unicorn's" sustained excellence. 

The final verdict

The NL MVP battle is heating up 🔥

-Pete Crow-Armstrong: 2 homers (walk-off HR), 4 hits
-Shohei Ohtani: 2 homers, 4 hits

Both earned Player of the Game honors!

(MLB x Primo Brands) pic.twitter.com/mdiBvTGUFR

— MLB (@MLB) August 18, 2026

Ultimately, I don't buy the "voter fatigue" argument. If Ohtani were hitting at the same level as his DH MVP campaign, then he'd be the clear front-runner. Likewise, if Ohtani were able to pitch at a high level for the entire season with his current offensive production, it's a no-brainer.

But neither of those things has come to fruition to this point. 

Defense is historically underrated, and PCA wouldn't have a snowball's chance in Hell at winning if his bat wasn't doing a lot of the heavy lifting.

A lot can change in a month and a half, and if Crow-Armstrong runs into a streaky stretch like the one that torpedoed the second half of his 2025 season, Ohtani will win. If Ohtani can get back on the mound in late August or early September, that will also make threading the needle difficult for PCA.

But as last night showed, Pete Crow-Armstrong is game to match Ohtani swing for swing right now. And that, plus his otherworldly defense in arguably baseball's most important position, is enough for me to favor him here. 

Pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-107 at Polymarket)

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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The St. Louis Cardinals head into tonight's clash with the Cincinnati Reds as a-113 moneyline favorite at Great American Ball Park, with first pitch scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. 

With Kyle Leahy in impressive form, my Cardinals vs. Reds predictions expect St. Louis to come out on top.

Read more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, Aug. 18. 

Who will win Cardinals vs Reds today: Cardinals moneyline (-116)

Kyle Leahy continues to throw the ball well for the St. Louis Cardinals. He owns a 2.55 FIP across his last five starts, allowing just 0.64 BB/9 and 0.94 HR/9 while consistently pounding the strike zone.

He’s also facing a Cincinnati Reds offense in horrible shape. Cincinnati has posted a 64 wRC+ across its last eight games with a .140 ISO.

As for Andrew Abbott, his 4.50 xERA over the last month is manageable, but the lefty has struggled with command, walking 5.14 hitters per nine innings. The Cardinals are also swinging it well with a 105 wRC+ over the last week.

St. Louis has the edge on the mound and at the dish.

Play this pick to -130.

COVERS INTEL: The Cardinals have been slightly better against left-handed pitching, posting a 98 wRC+ compared to a 95 mark vs. right-handers. That gives St. Louis a small matchup boost against Abbott.

Cardinals vs Reds Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-103)

The Under is looking like the play here. Cincinnati is struggling offensively, and Leahy is in strong enough form to take advantage. The Cardinals’ bullpen has also held its own, posting a 4.06 FIP over the last week.

The Cards may be doing more at the plate, but they will have it tough once Abbott departs. Cincinnati’s relief corps is dealing, owning a 3.29 FIP over its last 29 2/3 frames. The Reds have limited the long ball during that span, too.

With Cincinnati’s lineup ice cold and both bullpens capable of limiting damage, this contest should stay relatively low-scoring.

Play this pick to -120.

Cardinals vs Reds home run prediction: Joshua Baez (+442)

Joshua Baez homered three times in his MLB debut, and all of those bombs came off left-hander Matthew Boyd. While the youngster hasn't done much since that contest, the success against lefties is hard to ignore with Abbott taking the hill. 

Also, 58.3% of his contact has been in the air since being promoted to the big leagues, and Baez has a 75% hard-hit rate. Abbott has allowed 1.22 HR/9 to right-handed batters this season, and a 51.5% fly ball rate. 

This matchup is a great chance for Baez to smack No. 4. 

Cardinals vs Reds weather

Weather at Great American Ball Park looks excellent tonight, with clear skies and temperatures falling from 79°F to 72°F through the evening. Winds are extremely light around 1–3 mph, and rain chances sit at 0%. Conditions should be clean and neutral, with no delay concern or major weather impact.

Cardinals vs Reds odds

• Moneyline: Cardinals -113 | Reds +108
• Run line: Cardinals -1.5 (+144) | Reds +1.5 (-150)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-104) | Under 8.5 (-100)

Cardinals vs Reds trend

The Reds have hit the Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+7.10 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Reds.

How to watch Cardinals vs Reds and game info

Cardinals vs Reds latest injuries

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The first-place Milwaukee Brewers are priced as a -150 moneyline favorite tonight against the Seattle Mariners, with first pitch scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET at American Family Field. 

With Kyle Harrison in top form at home this season, my Mariners vs. Brewers predictions are backing him to silence Seattle while getting run support. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, Aug. 18. 

Who will win Mariners vs Brewers today: Brewers moneyline (-155)

The Seattle Mariners send Bryce Miller to the hill, and he is still looking to find his form. The righty owns a 4.45 FIP across his last two starts while giving up 1.64 HR/9, and his monthly FIP sits at 5.71.

The Milwaukee Brewers aren't in great offensive shape, but the Brewers are much better at home with a 111 wRC+, compared to a 95 road mark.

Kyle Harrison has a 4.01 xERA over his last two appearances, but has been a completely different pitcher at American Family Field, posting a 2.14 home FIP compared to a 4.87 mark on the road.

Harrison should bring his best, and Milwaukee can capitalize on Miller’s recent struggles.

Play this pick to -160.

COVERS INTEL: Miller has a 4.66 FIP on the road, compared to a 2.88 mark at T-Mobile Park. That gives Milwaukee's lineup another advantage. 

Mariners vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-112)

This total sits at 7.5, and it's low enough to hammer the Over. Milwaukee’s offense has been cold lately with a 74 wRC+ over its last six games, but theBrewers are much better at home, which gives them a path against a struggling Miller.

Seattle’s offense is also in solid form, posting a 122 wRC+ over the last week. Harrison has been better at American Family Field, but the Mariners are seeing the ball well enough to contribute.

The bullpen edge is not overwhelming either, with Seattle’s relief corps owning a 4.55 FIP over the last two weeks.

Play this pick to -130.

Mariners vs Brewers home run prediction: Jackson Chourio (+474)

Jackson Chourio has gone deep four times in his last 13 contests, and he carries a 60% hard-hit rate and 17.1% barrel rate during that span.

Chourio is always a dangerous hitter, but he's thrived against right-handers. He's hit 12 of his 17 bombs off righties. 

He's clubbed that same number of bombs at home this season, and Miller's HR issues lately are evident. The Mariners' bullpen has also surrendered 1.67 HR/9 across the last two weeks, giving Chourio another path to leaving the yard when Miller departs. 

Mariners vs Brewers weather

Weather at American Family Field looks messy early, with rain chances around 54% at 7 p.m. ET before gradually dropping later in the night. Temperatures sit in the low 70s with moderate winds, but the retractable roof could easily neutralize those conditions.

Mariners vs Brewers odds

• Moneyline: Mariners +144 | Brewers -150
• Run line: Mariners +1.5 (-156) | Brewers -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-108) | Under 7.5 (+104)

Mariners vs Brewers trend

The Mariners have hit the Over in 24 of their last 40 away games (+9.05 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Brewers.

How to watch Mariners vs Brewers and game info

Mariners vs Brewers latest injuries

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With a vulnerable arm on the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Boston Red Sox sit as a heavy -156 moneyline favorite for tonight's clash at Fenway Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. 

My Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox predictions see no issues with Boston grabbing another convincing victory behind left-hander Ranger Suarez. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, Aug. 18. 

Who will win Diamondbacks vs Red Sox today: Red Sox -1.5 (+129)

The Boston Red Sox should be looking forward to this matchup with Merrill Kelly taking the bump for the Arizona Diamondbacks. He's been very hittable lately, posting a 6.36 FIP over his last two starts while surrendering 1.69 HR/9.

Kelly is also hurting himself with walks, issuing 4.44 BB/9 over the last month.

The Red Sox have cooled off a bit offensively, but they just exploded for 11 runs Monday, and Boston still owns a 125 wRC+ over its previous 15 contests.

Ranger Suarez should provide stability. The left-hander owns a 3.19 FIP at Fenway Park in 2026 and a 3.39 FIP over his previous four appearances.

Boston’s offense can create separation.

Play this pick to +110.

COVERS INTEL: Arizona’s offense has traveled poorly this season, posting an 88 wRC+ on the road compared to a 103 mark at Chase Field. That gives Suarez a cleaner matchup and strengthens Boston’s path to separation at Fenway.

Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-103)

After the Over comfortably hit on Monday, I'm eyeing it again. 

The Red Sox are still smashing baseballs, and Arizona’s bullpen is shaky, which means more runs are possible when Kelly exits. The Diamondbacks’ relief corps has a 5.33 xERA over the last week while allowing 1.40 HR/9.

Boston’s bullpen has been a lot steadier during that span with a 3.17 FIP, but Suarez isn’t untouchable. The Diamondbacks’ offense is also above league average right now, and if the Sox score as much as I expect, Arizona won’t need to chip in much for this contest to cash the Over.

Diamondbacks vs Red Sox home run prediction: Willson Contreras (+474)

Willson Contreras has been showing his power lately. He's gone yard twice in his last six games while posting a .381 ISO during that span. This matchup against Kelly also screams value. 

While it's not a huge sample size, Contreras is 7-for-13 lifetime vs. Kelly with three doubles and a home run. Kelly is having major trouble with the long ball, and the majority of Contreras' homers have been against RHPs.

Kelly has also given up 1.38 HR/9 on the road. 

Play this pick to -130.

Diamondbacks vs Red Sox weather

Weather at Fenway Park looks mild and humid tonight, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures sitting around 73°F at first pitch before dipping to 71°F later. Winds are light around 3–5 mph, and rain chances stay low near 10–13%. Overall, conditions look fairly neutral with no major delay concern.

Diamondbacks vs Red Sox odds

• Moneyline: Diamondbacks +150 | Red Sox -156
• Run line: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-138) | Red Sox -1.5 (+133)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-100) | Under 8.5 (-104)

Diamondbacks vs Red Sox trend

The Red Sox have covered the run line in 30 of their last 50 games (+15.40 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox.

How to watch Diamondbacks vs Red Sox and game info

Diamondbacks vs Red Sox latest injuries

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The Kansas City Royals finally won a road series, and Noah Cameron made sure the finale was memorable with a one-hit complete-game shutout in Anaheim that Jacob Milham and Jeremy Greco treat as the centerpiece of this episode. The Royals had not won a road series in more than two months, making the victory over the Los Angeles Angels feel like a moment for this aimless team to relish in.

Cameron’s recent run of starts allowing one hit or fewer over seven-plus innings belongs in historical context, and the hosts dig into why his slider, changeup, and overall pitch-calling approach suggest something sustainable rather than a hot streak. It is the kind of performance that changes how a sophomore pitcher is evaluated.

The roster continues to shift. Maikel Garcia and Vinnie Pasquantino are both back from rehab, triggering a series of corresponding moves involving Josh Rojas, José Cuas, Starling Marte, and Connor Thomas. The bullpen and rotation picture gets a thorough look as well, with Beck Way’s rehab assignment, Carlos Estévez, Nick Mears, Lucas Erceg, and Daniel Lynch IV all factoring into a conversation about why the organization keeps leaning on veteran depth. Tony Gonsolin’s major league signing adds a high-upside but genuinely uncertain wrinkle to the pitching picture, and Jacob and Jeremy temper their expectations given his extensive injury history.

Beyond the current roster, MLB Pipeline’s updated farm system rankings have the Royals sitting 19th, prompting a discussion of whether the system trends up or down as the organization pushes toward 2027. The reported sale of the San Diego Padres becomes a broader conversation about franchise value and why the Royals should not be treated as a small-market afterthought, while the Kansas City ballpark situation remains messy, with the city’s reported six hundred million dollar offer and its financing structure drawing real criticism over the proposed lease terms.

The episode also remembers Tommy John and his lasting impact on the sport, and looks ahead to the Royals’ appearance in next year’s Field of Dreams game.

Need your Royals fix? Head to royalsreview.com for news, analysis, and to engage with Royals fans around the world! Follow us online:

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It was a bold move by the front office to acquire Luis Arraez at the trade deadline. From an offensive standpoint, he was more or less exactly what they needed: a contact oriented hitter with an acute allergy to striking out, particularly when runners were on base. It has been something that has plagued the offense for years, so adding in someone (and putting them in a run producing spot) has had good results thus far.

However, the biggest issue was always going to be the defense. Arraez’s stated preference to continue playing second base for any team interested in taking him on meant there would be shuffling around the infield for the Phillies. Bryson Stott was going to have to move positions, Alec Bohm was going to have move positions, Bryce Harper was going to have to move positions. It all became something of a logistical nightmare to try and fit all of those players into spots they hadn’t been accustomed to in years, some in multiple years. The assumption was that the defense was going to be an abysmal nightmare of infield butchery and necessary defensive substitution.

While it’s far too early to have any concrete analysis, one can pretty safely say the defense has been….fine.

The ones that we would have expected to be bad (Bohm at first, Harper in right field) have been just that, but the others are simply average, something that the team is probably happy with. Given that what they were working with, these are numbers that they can likely live with.

As I just mentioned, the two that have been the worst according to FRV are Harper and Bohm. Starting with Harper, it has been a period of readjustment to the outfield. Having not played the position since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2022, there has been an element of rustiness to his game as he has been out there. Some catches that probably should have been made haven’t been.

There is probably a certain amount of change Harper has to go through, particularly where his knee is concerned. He has spoken of the soreness he is experiencing in the joint right now, comparing it to spring training and the normal aches and pains that come with playing the position for the first time after a certain amount of time off, so maybe there will be some improvement as the season continues moving towards the end. He’s ranked near the bottom of the league in fielding run value (FRV) since the time of the trade, but it’s still a small sample size so maybe some better health will help that number look a little better.

With someone like Bohm, he is just going to be a bad first baseman.

In his career, he has been below average at the position when given the chance to play there, so they’re likely content to simply continue with that kind of defensive production at first. Besides, Harper was no great shakes there this season anyway.

What’s at least mildly surprising is that Bryson Stott has certainly taken to third base like a duck to water, making routine plays look positively routine while also showing some surprising range.

These are plays that the previous third baseman simply wasn’t going to be making, so it’s nice to have at least basic competency at the position. The athleticism that Stott has probably had much to do with their decision to be fine moving him to the hot corner, thinking he’d be able to make plays like this with mild regularity.

Now, it is foolish to declare this experiment a full blown success based on a little over 100 innings of defense. The sample size for most defensive statistics require a lengthy period of stabilization before we can truly put our trust in them. We would need to see this group together for an entire season, maybe two, before we can say this alignment has been a success. Yet this is what we have, 100 innings to show that maybe this will be fine enough to get through this season. Is there still a rough patch in the future? Possibly. Playing out of position all the time means the ball will probably find someone at the worst possible time.

For now, it’s fine. And that’s about all we can ask for.

Elian Peña

Week: 6 G, 21 AB, .286/.400/.762, 6 H, 1 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 4 BB, 9 K, 1/3 SB (High-A)

2026 Season: 96 G, 365, .271/.388/.397, 99 H, 18 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 61 BB, 94 K, 28/37 SB, .343 BABIP (Single-A)

Back at the beginning of August, when we rolled out the prospect report card for July, I mentioned that I was starting to get a little worried about how passive Elian Peña had become. Now, don’t get me wrong, his 105 wRC+ until that point was great for an 18-year-old in his first go-around in full-season ball in his first year in the United States, but the overall profile left a bit to be desired. Yes, he was walking at an excellent 14% rate, but he was also striking out at a 19.7% rate with lower-than-average Swing%, lower-than-average SwStr%, and higher-than-average CStr%; in other words, it seemed to me based on those stats that Peña was taking a lot of pitches, balls or strikes, and that his slightly above-average offensive contributions weren’t thanks to a preternaturally good eye for a teenager, but rather, passivity at the plate. As highlighted by the concept of SEAGER, there is a difference between good aggression, bad aggression, good passivity, and bad passivity.

One of the things I wanted to see more from Peña going forward was his ability to do damage, even if it resulted in his swing-and-miss rates going up, and related stats like batting average or on-base percentage going down. Peña has done that and then some since the calendar flipped to August. Through 12 games in the month, he is hitting .333/.423/.622 with 4 doubles, 3 home runs, and 7 walks to 18 strikeouts, with one of those doubles and all three of those home runs coming this past week.

Peña’s entire professional resume consists of what he’s done this year and 55 games in the Dominican Summer League last year, so it is pretty light all things considered. With that in mind, he has always shown a solid eye, fair pitch recognition, and demonstrated relatively positive swing decisions at the plate. I don’t want to see Peña change that and become a wild hacker swinging at everything because statistically he is bound to run into a ball here and there, but in order to develop into an effective major leaguer, he will need to hit the ball with more authority. Edgardo Alfonzo was a career .284 hitter who got on base at a career .357 rate. Mike Schmidt was a career .267 hitter who got on base at a career .380 rate. Edgardo Alfonzo is a fan favorite while Mike Schmidt is considered one of the best third basemen ever because he also slugged .527 and had a career 147 wRC+ to Alfonzo’s .425 career slugging percentage and 107 wRC+.

Now that he has been promoted to Brooklyn, it will be an interesting final couple of months for the left-hand hitting shortstop. Since Keyspan/MCU/Maimonides Park opened, it has been a favorable pitcher’s park in general, with flyballs, home runs and left-handed hitters impacted the most by the stadium. As per MLB Rule 2.01, the sight line from home plate to the pitcher’s mound to second base to center field should point due east to avoid the setting sun impacting at-bats. Facing east on Surf Avenue, well, it doesn’t really get more east. The Atlantic Ocean being about 400 feet from center/right field without much obstruction has impacted countless Cyclones home games, with winds swatting down fly balls. Peña has had his most success when pulling and elevating the ball, and his angular bat path is optimized for doing just that.

May the best force win.

Jose Chirinos

Week: 1 G (1 GS), 6.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K (High-A)

2026 Season: 9 G (7 GS), 42.0 IP, 34 H, 16 R, 11 ER (2.36 ERA), 10 BB, 48 K, .295 BABIP (Single-A) / 12 G (12 GS), 59.1 IP, 54 H, 30 R, 27 ER (4.10 ERA), 27 BB, 61 K, .299 BABIP (High-A)

Brooklyn, which has park favors that skew heavily in the favor of pitching, often has a habit of making pitchers look better than they actually are. Beginning with Ross Peeples and his 1.34 ERA in 2001- though with Peeples, bone spurs and Tommy John surgery certainly contributed to his career as a prospect derailing- Keyspan/MCU/Maimonides Park has made its fair share of duds look like studs (no offense to any of those player, of course- I just liked the rhyme).

Jose Chirinos, surprisingly, has had the opposite effect occur. Earlier in the year, in St. Lucie, he looked great. Since his promotion to Brooklyn at the beginning of June, he hasn’t looked all that great. Much of the damage done against the right-hander came in his first bunch of starts, and he’s settled down some since then, but with the totality of everything, he has been more hittable, has been walking more batters, has been getting fewer swings-and-misses, and has been showing batted ball metric data trending in the wrong direction.

I was interested in digging into his numbers and maybe trying to figure out why Chirinos hasn’t exactly been helped by a park that has helped so many other pitchers over the last 25 years look better than they actually are/were. One thing I noticed immediately about Chirinos is that the right-hander has pretty huge platoon splits, with right-handed batters hitting .199/.276/.304 against him in 226 total plate appearances but left-handed batters hitting .274/.350/.503 in 200 total plate appearances. Baseball-Reference unfortunately does not further break down these splits by home and road, but looking at the data, he’s thrown more innings at home than he has on the road (36.2 innings in 7 home starts versus 22.2 innings in 5 away games), so basic logic would suggest that he’s had more matchups against left-handed batters at home than he has against left-handed batters on the road. The fact that Maimonides Park hasn’t helped him against left-handed batters as it has so many other New York-Penn League/South Atlantic League pitchers is a weird peculiarity. The park is usually very tough against them, and yet, of the six home runs Chirinos has allowed at home, four were against left-handed batters.

At the end of the day, based simply on stuff, I don’t see Jose Chirinos having Jacob deGrom upside despite the resemblance, or much of a particularly high upside, in general, but based on 25 seasons of Cyclones baseball, he should arguably be looking more a lot more deGromian.

Players of the Week 2026

Week One/Two (March 27-April 5): Hayden Senger/Cam Tilly

Week Three (April 7-April 12): A.J. Ewing/Christian Scott

Week Four (April 14-April 18): Randy Guzman/Jose Chirinos

Week Five (April 21-April 26): A.J. Ewing/Channing Austin

Week Six (April 30-May 3): A.J. Ewing/Jonah Tong

Week Seven (May 5-May 10): Ryan Clifford/Jonathan Santucci

Week Eight: (May 12-May 17): Jacob Reimer/Zach Thornton

Week Nine: (May 19-May 24): Ryan Clifford/Channing Austin

Week Ten: (May 26-May 31): Ryan Clifford/Jose Chirinos

Week Eleven: (June 2-June 7): Vincent Perozo/Frank Camarillo

Week Twelve: (June 9-June 14): JT Benson/Nick Carreno

Week Thirteen (June 16-June 21): Nick Morabito/Jonathan Santucci

Week Fourteen (June 23-June 28): JT Benson/Daviel Hurtado

Week Fifteen: (June 30-July 5): MJ Melendez/Daviel Hurtado

Week Sixteen: (July 7-July 12): Daiverson Gutierrez/Jonathan Santucci

Week Seventeen (July 13-July 19): MJ Melendez/Noah Hall

Week Eighteen: (July 21-July 26): Ronny Mauricio/Conner Ware

Week Nineteen: (July 28-August 2): Mitch Voit/Jonah Tong

Week Twenty (August 3-August 9): Mitch Voit/Noah Hall