Category: MLB

For most of a season that, in the grand scheme of things is still in its infancy, most of the angst directed at the Phillies has been towards an inconsistent and maddening offense.

That, of course, makes sense. After all, it has been the lineup that has torpedoed four attempts by this talented team to win a World Series. But in the three-game series the Phils just wrapped up against the Cubs, the pitching staff gave up 28 runs, capped off by Jesus Luzardo’s astonishing implosion Wednesday night:

• 5.1 IP, 12 H, 9 R, 8 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

Through 18 games, this vaunted pitching staff’s ERA stands at 4.92, 5th-worst in Major League Baseball. Only the Cardinals (4.94), White Sox (5.02), Nationals (5.89) and Astros (6.17), have been worse. They have allowed a league-high .272 batting average against them. Phillies’ pitchers are every bit as responsible for their -25 run differential that is 3rd-worst in the league.

• White Sox (-38)
• Giants (-27)
• Phillies (-25)
• Blue Jays (-24)

It is still very early in the season. Only 18 games have been played. And yes, it does provide some comfort that the defending AL pennant winners (Toronto) are off to the same rough start as the Phils.

If you’re a bit bewildered by the Phillies’ pitchers through the first three weeks of the season, you have every right to be. We’ve seen multiple instances where they like world beaters for long stretches and then are suddenly done in by the big inning or a single lackluster start. As a result, the overall numbers of the individual pitchers don’t look great.

Cristopher Sanchez’ ERA remains a sparkling 2.01 through his first four starts, even though he hasn’t featured his best stuff as of yet. Andrew Painter’s is 3.77, Aaron Nola’s is 4.03, Luzardo’s jumped to a ghastly 7.94 after Wednesday night’s disaster, and Taijuan Walker’s 7.36 ERA is also unsightly.

When the strength of the team is supposed to be the starting rotation, these types of numbers foment an 8-10 start.

But the underlying metrics for the staff indicate they have been, by far, the unluckiest pitching staff in baseball through the season’s first three weeks.

According to Fangraphs’ Wins Above Replacement, their 3.5 fWAR is 2nd-best in MLB, behind only the Seattle Mariners (3.7). Yes, that’s right, Fangraphs believes the Phillies have the No. 2 pitching staff in baseball thus far. Although their 4.92 ERA is 5th-worst, their Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 3.06 is 2nd-best. There is not a single pitcher of note on the entire staff who is out-pitching his underlying metrics.

• Cristopher Sanchez: 2.01 ERA, 1.90 FIP (0.11 E-F)
• Aaron Nola: 3.56 ERA, 4.03 FIP, (0.47 E-F)
• Taijuan Walker: 7.36 ERA, 6.50 FIP (0.87 E-F)
• Andrew Painter: 3.77 ERA, 1.55 FIP (2.21 E-F)
• Jesus Luzardo: 7.94 ERA, 2.49 FIP (5.05 E-F!!!)

For the uninitiated, FIP uses a formula that factors in only strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed, filtering out batted ball data that is largely out of a pitcher’s control. No team in baseball has a larger gap between their ERA and FIP than the Phillies. In fact, their 1.86 difference is a full run more than the next closest team, the Astros (0.85). It is not a perfect statistic, but it is useful to help make sense of things when results don’t meet the eye test.

The bullpen has the same issues.

• Zach Pop: 3.68 ERA, 3.16 FIP (0.52 E-F)
• Jhoan Duran: 1.35 ERA, 0.76 FIP (0.59 E-F)
• Tim Mayza: 3.00 ERA, 2.27 FIP (0.73 E-F)
• Brad Keller: 4.70 ERA, 3.55 FIP (1.15 E-F)
• Kyle Backhus: 7.71 ERA, 6.37 FIP (1.34 E-F)
• Tanner Banks: 5.40 ERA, 3.46 FIP (1.94 E-F)
• Orion Kerkering: 4.15 ERA, 2.00 FIP (2.15 E-F)
• Jonathan Bowlan: 3.36 ERA, 1.30 FIP (2.56 E-F)
• Jose Alvarado: 10.50 ERA, 2.49 FIP (8.01 E-F!!!)

Phillies pitchers are striking a ton of guys out, the 3rd-highest rate in baseball (26.2%), while at the same time are the 2nd-stingiest staff in terms of walks (6.7%). They also are a top-10 staff in avoiding home runs, with their 0.84 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) tied with the Dodgers’ staff for 8th.

The reason Phils pitchers are giving up so few home runs is because they are inducing more ground balls than any team in baseball (49.9%). They’re also elite at not allowing hard contact. Their hard-hit rate (29.2%), as calculated by Fangraphs, is 3rd-best in the league and their average exit velocity allowed (87.4 mph) is also the best.

To sum up:

• They’re striking out a ton of batters.
• They are walking very few.
• They don’t allow many home runs because they have the highest ground ball rate in the league.
• They are allowing the weakest contact.

This is what you want. You build a staff in order to generate all of these things, which leads to one overriding conclusion.

On the whole, the Phillies have been unlucky.

As a team, the staff has allowed a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .359. Folks, that is insanely high and far and away the worst in baseball, a full 32 points higher than the next-closest team (Houston’s .327). BABIP numbers that high never sustain themselves over the course of a full season. Last year, the Phils’ BABIP was 6th-highest, but only sat at .299.

It’s going to come down.

But one issue that may not correct itself to as large a degree is the defense. Over the first three weeks, the staff has been undone by the worst glove work in baseball.

Their -15 Defensive Runs Saved is dead last and their -6 Outs Above Average is tied for 3rd-worst. They’ve committed 14 errors, 4th-most in MLB. Turner was given a rough error that led to the Cubs’ second run on Wednesday night, but over the last two weeks, we’ve seen the Phils’ defense give away too many outs. This is not a strong defensive team by nature, but early on, they’re making life more difficult than usual for their pitchers.

Now, there’s no sugarcoating Luzardo’s performance on Wednesday night. He gave up a ton of hits and allowed a ton of runs, but his average exit velocity allowed was only 86.9 mph, and he generated a 45.5% ground ball rate against the Cubs. Many of the hits were bleeding grounders and bloopers, although to be fair, the Cubs did square some balls up on him in the 3rd and 5th innings. And there are other issues to be concerned about with him.

Luzardo has long had struggles pitching from the stretch (9.22 career ERA with runners on base), and that problem has only been exacerbated in 2026 (24.55 ERA), and there are other issues, too.

Some concerning Jesús Luzardo stats:

1. Opponents are hitting .467 with an OPS over 1.300 when they swing first pitch against Luzardo

2. His fastball is getting smoked right now. The average against his four-seamer is .348 and against his sinker it’s .375.

3. He’s falling…

— Jack Fritz (@JackFritzWIP) April 16, 2026

The good news is Luzardo struggled in a similar fashion last season when the Phillies believed he was tipping his pitches, and they fixed it. While that doesn’t appear to be the problem now, Caleb Cotham is one of the best pitching coaches in baseball, and these feel like fixable issues.

As for the rest of the staff, the “back-of-the-baseball-card” numbers should revert to the mean as long as the rest of the underlying data doesn’t change much. The staff has actually been pitching really well, but hasn’t had much to show for it through the first 18 games.

Check out the latest Hittin’ Season podcast, where Justin Klugh and I discussed this and recapped the Phils’ series against the Cubs and their rough start to the season. Powered by WHYY.

The Diamondbacks may have got Merrill Kelly back while in Baltimore. But Arizona still currently have a full dozen players on the injured list. They are evenly split between hitters and pitchers, but two-third of them are on the extended 60-day injured list. With an off-day today, I thought it was a good opportunity to go through the list, and see what the status is of each wounded snake.

Corbin Burnes (IL-60)

It was June 1st 2025 that Burnes threw his last pitch for the D-backs, Tommy John surgery following shortly thereafter. His rehab progress has been steady, though there was never an expectation he would be back in less than a year. The last update from the team had Burnes throwing a twenty-pitch bullpen session on the last day of March. It’ll be a process, Burnes gradually mixing in pitches other than fastballs, and also seeking to build his stamina back up. He could be a valuable addition in the second half, though Jack suggests caution. As Jack does. 🙂 Expected return: All-Star break.

Jordan Lawlar (IL-60)

Probably the most unfortunate injury of the year, Lawlar was hit by a pitch from Atlanta’s Osvaldo Bido, in the same game where he hit his first major-league home-run. While initial X-rays were negative, further examination revealed a fractured wrist, meaning he will be out for 6-8 weeks. Jordan had started off 6-for-18, and had acquitted himself well as an outfielder too. Lawlar seemed to have turned the corner after his rough early time in the bigs, so hopefully he’ll be able to sustain the momentum when he returns. Expected return: late May.

Lourdes Gurriel (IL-10)

The initial expectation was that Gurriell would miss 9-10 months after surgery last September to repair his torn ACL. However, he has speed-run the healing process: indeed, he wanted to be part of the Opening Day roster. Wiser heads prevailed there, but he is now on a rehab assignment with the Double-A Amarillo Sod Poodles. We’ll see how long it takes from there. The maximum length of an assignment like that is twenty days, but I’d not be surprised to see Gurriell back sooner. However, he will probably be DHing initially for the D-backs. Expected return: end of April.

Tyler Locklear (IL-10)

After coming over from the Mariners at the deadline, Locklear hit the IL on September 8, following an unfortunate collision at first base with base runner Connor Wong of Boston. At that time, it was just described as elbow inflammation, but things were apparently worse than originally expected. He ended up having surgery on both shoulder and elbow in early October. There hasn’t been any updates – good or bad – since the beginning of spring training, but his total absence from the preseason would indicated he’s still certainly some way off. Expected return: late May.

Justin Martinez (IL-60)

Not long after ace starting pitcher Burnes had Tommy John in June, we got the news that ace closer Martinez would need more or less the same procedure. He started playing catch in January, but does seem to be a little behind Burnes in his rehab progress. Just before Opening Day, he was still throwing on flat ground, rather than off a mound. That it’s Martinez’s second Tommy John, having previously had the procedure in 2021, may be a factor in him taking additional time to come back. Expected return: late August.

Cristian Mena (IL-60)

Mena has been plagued by issues the past couple of year. In 2024, he was shutdown with a forearm strain at the end of July. The following year, he was done after the first week in June, injuring his right teres major – or “shoulder muscle” as we laymen call it – during the rainy debacle in Cincinnati. It was hoped he would be healthy by spring. But, instead, he was shut down in late February, after suffering more discomfort in the same area. Come the end of spring, he was put back on the 60-day IL, and there has been nothing since. Expected return: no date.

Gabriel Moreno (IL-10)

Since coming to Arizona, Moreno has averaged only 97 games per season. It was just 83 last year, due to a fracture in his right index finger. While the current strained left oblique, incurred on a throw down to second base, isn’t a major injury, it continues an unfortunate trend. As we’ve seen with other players, obliques are potentially tricky things. If Moreno rushes back, it could backfire. So I’ve a feeling he is going to be out for a bit more than the minimum ten days. Expected return: end of April.

A.J. Puk (IL-60)

There’s a couple of reasons Puk will be back before his fellow elbow surgery victims. His injury happened earlier in 2025: he threw his last pitch almost exactly one year ago, on April 17. But his procedure was also different: an internal brace, which is more repair than reconstruction. That has a shorter rehab time, although like Martinez, it is also Puk’s second go around. He previously had Tommy John surgery in April 2018. A.J. has been throwing bullpens, and obviously, stamina will be less a concern than for Burnes. Expected return: mid-June.

Andrew Saalfrank (IL-60)

It appears the baseball gods have not finished punishing Saalfrank. While he had a successful return after serving a gambling suspension, his pitch velocity was well down on previous figures. He pushed through shoulder soreness, but the issue did not resolve itself over the winter. Surgery to clean out the shoulder proved necessary, and that took place in February. It turned out to be the first in a series of dominoes, which ended in the 2026 D-backs bullpen being free from lefties. Expected return: 2027, if there is even a season.

Carlos Santana (IL-10)

I’ve a feeling the oldest active position player in the majors won’t be hurried back. It is only the veteran’s second IL spell since 2014: he missed time in 2022 with ankle bursitis. But when Santana went on the injured list with a right adductor strain, he had gone just 2-for-24 through his first eight games. Ildemaro Vargas and Jose Fernandez have done considerably better than that in Santana’s absence. If that continues, there is a non-zero (though small) chance the team could decide simply to cut bait when Carlos is healthy. Expected return: early May.

Pavin Smith (IL-60)

Smith’s elbow had been a source of bother throughout spring training. He was a late scratch on Opening Day in LA, and though he played in the rest of the first series, the issue lingered. A cortisone shot and rest didn’t fix things, and it was announced on Tuesday that he would have surgery to clear out “loose bodies” in his left elbow. This typically has a recovery time of 6-8 weeks, explaining why the team was able to free up a roster spot for Aramis Garcia by moving Pavin to the 60-day IL. Expected return: mid-June.

Blake Walston (IL-60)

Remember him? He made seven appearances for the team back in 2024. But Walston then had Tommy John surgery in March the following year. On that basis, you’d expect him to be nearing the end of his rehab. However, he got dropped back on the 60-day IL at the start of the season, so is clearly going to miss at least another two months. Unlike everyone else on the list, I was unable to source any updates on Walston’s progress, or lack thereof. I’d be expecting reports of bullpens by now. Still, until proven otherwise, I’m going to assume that no news is good news. Expected return: mid-June.

EDITOR’S NOTE: An earlier version of this article ran here at BCB last October. This one has updated giveaway numbers and some information about Cubs gate giveaways from 2026.

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I’ve written on this topic previously, but now I’ve got some new information that I wanted to pass along to you.

As you know if you attend Cubs games when there are promotional gate giveaways, the team limits those to the first 10,000 (or “up to” that number, as they generally say) who come to the gates. This has led to many disappointed fans who, for whatever reason, want the giveaway but can’t get to Wrigley Field early enough. In some cases this has produced very long lines to get into the ballpark and some trouble at some gates.

This year, there have already been some criticisms and issues with gate giveaways.

First, the magnet schedule giveaway is generally one of the most popular every year. For most years before 2026, the team gave away 30,000 of these — sometimes each day for the entire opening series. This year? Only 10,000 magnet schedules, and only on Opening Day.

This led to a lot of unhappy fans, as attendance on Opening Day was 39,712. This led to some of these being sold on eBay for as much as $25. This year’s magnet schedule did not have a sponsor — perhaps if the Cubs got a sponsor for that, they could have given away 30,000 of them. I can tell you that a lot of people I know were very disappointed.

There were also issues with two of the early season gate giveaways. One, a “puffer vest” with the Cubs 150th anniversary logo, was actually quite nice — but I heard from quite a few people that the zippers broke easily. I got lucky and got one with a working zipper, but… seems to me the Cubs could have ordered a higher-quality product. This one did have a sponsor (Southwest Airlines) so… how much more could that have cost to get good working zippers?

Last Saturday, a Ben Zobrist bobblehead was given away and the one I got was broken. Fortunately, the Cubs hold back some extras in case this happens and they replaced the one I received. I have seen Cubs staffers toss around the cartons the bobbleheads are shipped in, perhaps breaking some in the process. They really should be more careful with these things.

Overall, though, the biggest issue is having only 10,000 gate giveaway items when the team generally averages over 37,000 fans per game.

This is not the way many other teams do giveaways. I have numbers for you! On Wednesday, I went through the websites of all 29 other teams to see what their policies were for gate giveaways. Many teams, including the Cubs, now have other giveaways that you have to buy a special ticket for, and those are more limited in number. These numbers are only for gate giveaways that are open to all without a special ticket.

Dodgers: 40,000 (except two Shohei Ohtani giveaways that are listed for 54,000 fans)
Padres: 40,000
Angels: 25,000
Brewers: 25,000 (some 10,000)
Giants: 25,000 (some 15,000 or 20,000)
Diamondbacks: 25,000 (some 15,000 or 20,000)
Mariners: 20,000 (some 10,000 or 15,000)
Nationals: 20,000
Orioles: 20,000
Royals: 20,000 (some 10,000 or 15,000)
Pirates: 20,000 (some “all fans”)
Yankees: 18,000
Mets: 18,000 (some 15,000)
Guardians: 15,000
Cardinals: 15,000
Blue Jays: 15,000
Braves: 15,000
Rockies: 15,000
White Sox: 15,000
Twins: 10,000
Rangers: 10,000
Astros: 10,000
Marlins: 10,000
Rays: 10,000
Red Sox: 7,500

Four teams did not post specific numbers.

Phillies: “all fans”
Tigers: “limited quantities”
Athletics: “while supplies last”
Reds: “while supplies last”

The number that sticks out the most to me in the list above is from the Dodgers. The Dodgers, who lead MLB in attendance every year. The Dodgers, who averaged 49,537 per date in 2025, have 40,000 of every giveaway item, which means that pretty much everyone who wants one would get one.

As noted above, Ohtani items basically go to everyone:

It should be noted that for some of the teams that have smaller numbers, those come close to matching their average attendance. For example, the Orioles have 20,000 giveaway items, their average attendance so far this year 21,362. The Royals, at 20,000 items, are above this year’s attendance average to date of 16,893. Clearly, for teams like this, promotional giveaways might actually draw larger crowds and bump up their averages. That’s not the case for the Cubs, who played to 89.5 percent of capacity in 2025 and who have most of their bobblehead giveaways — the most popular ones — on Saturdays when they’re likely close to sold out anyway. This year, for nine home dates, the Cubs have averaged 32,755, with quite a number of home dates played in very cold weather. That number will almost certainly go up.

The Marlins increased their giveaway item number from 8,000 to 10,000 this year, and so far this year they have averaged 11,713 for 10 home dates. Some other teams giving away more items this year: Giants (from 15,000 to 25,000), Mets (from 15,000 to 18,000, perhaps to match their crosstown rival Yankees) and Mariners (from 15,000 to 20,000).

The only teams that draw well and have as few or fewer giveaway items than the Cubs are the Astros (10,000 giveaways, 33,677 average in 2025) and Red Sox (7,500 giveaways, 34,278 average in 2025).

But most teams have enough for a large percentage of their fans to get popular giveaway items without having to rush to get to the ballpark early, or be disappointed if they can’t. As the Cubs surely know, many fans come to Wrigley from all over the Midwest — should they have to get up at 4 a.m. to drive to Chicago from Iowa just to get a bobblehead?

Occasionally at Wrigley Field, popular gate giveaways draw huge numbers of fans arriving early, creating potential crowd control issues. There’s another popular bobblehead this weekend (Ron Santo) and on Sat., May 24, likely the most popular gate giveaway item of the season, a Ryne Sandberg bobblehead.

Yes, I know the argument — teams want fans in the park early to consume more food and drink. At the same time, enough teams have enough giveaway items for fans that maybe this shouldn’t matter. As noted above, the Cubs (along with almost all other teams) have reduced the number of gate giveaways anyway in recent years, shifting over to the “special ticket” items that have proven to be popular.

The Cubs really should increase the number of gate giveaway items to at least 15,000, or hey, why not match the mighty Yankees at 18,000? Or perhaps to half of the 40,000 the Dodgers give, to 20,000? That would leave far fewer dissatisfied Cubs fans, and there shouldn’t be any additional cost to the team, since the items generally have a sponsor who pays for them. (The Ben Zobrist bobblehead, for example, had Jewel/Osco as its sponsor.)

Get it done, Cubs.

The White Sox will be trying to salvage a win in a series where they’ve been pretty well thumped in the first two games, and the pitching staff may give a try at keeping the Rays to fewer than eight runs while they’re at it. This will be the first game where there’s no one in the Sox lineup making a major league debut, so maybe experience will come into play.

The Sox presumably have their best starter on the mound, since it’s Anthony Kay’s turn in the rotation, though Jordan Leasure is playing the role of opener. Before you slap your forehead and scream, “Oh, no — not HIM!!” please note that Leasure has given up no runs in his last four appearances, so somebody must have pointed out to him that the object is to keep opponents off the bases.

The Rays counter with veteran lefty Steven Matz, who is 3-0 with a 3.94 ERA and outstanding 0.938 WHIP and held the Yankees to two runs in five innings last time out. Matz will face a White Sox lineup without Colson Montgomery, who struck out four times last night, or any batter with more than 20 at-bats who’s hitting over .203, but with San Antonacci, who was 1-for-3 in his MLB debut last night ,in left and hitting ninth.

Leasure and presumably Kay will face a Rays lineup that has won five in a row, two of them pummels of the Sox and three of them close wins over the Yankees.

First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 Central, with a chance of thunderstorms theoretically going away about then, with a temp of 71 and winds blowing out to left. Usual broadcast suspects.

We are close to game time today in Sacramento as the Athletics prepare to wrap up this four-game series against the Texas Rangers. This afternoon, the Athletics look to win their third-straight game, third-straight series and increase their divisional lead. On the other side, the Rangers seek the series split, hoping to leave town tied atop the standings again.

Last night, the Athletics won 6-5, catapulting into first place in the American League West. Catcher Shea Langeliers and shortstop Jacob Wilson hit two-run home runs in back-to-back innings, giving the hosts a four run lead. Wilson’s run proved to be the game winner. Rangers first baseman Jake Burger’s three-run home run in the eighth inning off A’s reliever Mark Leiter Jr. reduced the visitors deficit to one. That was the closest Texas would get as A’s reliever Joel Kuhnel continued to excel, recording a four-out save.

Left-handed pitcher Jacob Lopez takes the mound for the A’s today for his fourth start of the season. He has largely struggled his first three outings, recording a 1-1 record and 7.43 ERA. In Lopez’s last start against the New York Mets, he gave up five runs in five innings, leaving the game after the A’s 7-1 lead was reduced to 7-6. If the A’s want to win this series against their division rivals, the team needs its lanky lefty to put forth his best start of the season. If he struggles again, the A’s may consider moving him to the bullpen or Triple-A Las Vegas in exchange for a better-performing pitcher. After Lopez, high-upside right hander Jack Perkins may make an appearance out of the bullpen, depending on the game’s score and situation.

The Athletics lineup for Game four shakes out like this:

Afternoon at the ballpark ☀️ pic.twitter.com/cCm4FIqSMm

— Athletics (@Athletics) April 16, 2026

Second baseman Jeff McNeil will bat leadoff today for the first time with the Athletics. Maybe moving first baseman Nick Kurtz to the third spot in the order will snap him out of his early-season slump. Austin Wynns is catching today, yet Langeliers remains in the lineup as the designated hitter in the wake of his 467–foot home run last night. Lastly, Darell Hernáiz gets the start at third base in place of Max Muncy and Carlos Cortes is in right field with usual right fielder Lawrence Butler shifting to center field.

This afternoon will be a Leiter family reunion. Mark Leiter Jr.’s cousin Jack Leiter is the Rangers starting pitcher. The No. 2 pick in the 2021 MLB Draft is 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA entering his fourth start of the season. In his last start against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Leiter allowed five runs in only 3 2/3 innings. The 25-year-old has good stuff, but has struggled to find consistent success. In a matchup that could be a high-scoring affair, the A’s offense needs to work counts, make Leiter exert a lot of effort and take advantage of any mistakes he makes.

The Rangers’ starting lineup:

Finale in Sacramento. #AllForTXpic.twitter.com/L22xKE4H1M

— Texas Rangers (@Rangers) April 16, 2026

The Rangers lineup for today’s series finale is missing some notable names, most significantly superstar shortstop Corey Seager, who hit a two-run home run yesterday. Even without Seager, the Rangers still have multiple dangerous hitters in their lineup. First baseman Jake Burger has been a one-man wrecking ball this series. He will likely be licking his chops today as the right-handed hitter gets to face the left-hander Lopez. In addition to Burger, Lopez must be careful when pitching to outfielders Brandon Nimmo and Wyatt Langford.

Let’s win another series today, fellas. Let’s go A’s!

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The homers kept pouring in yesterday, marking three straight days with a long ball and a major turnaround in ROI, flipping from -11.1u to +2.6u. Let’s keep the momentum going with more home runs and MLB player props.

I’m double-dipping in this afternoon’s Rangers-A’s AL West matchup, while also targeting Tampa Bay Rays slugger Yandy Díaz in a prime hitter-friendly spot.

These are my favorite home run bets for Thursday, April 16.

Best MLB home run props today

Corey Seager (+490)

Corey Seager to hit a homer at +490 is the best +EV home run prop of the morning, with a fair price around +310, and it’s easy to see why.

He gets a great matchup against A's starter Jacob Lopez, a lefty who isn’t any tougher on same-handed bats. Lopez has already allowed three home runs in 13+ innings, and the setting in Sacramento isn’t doing him any favors. He’s also struggling with control, issuing 13 walks, which can lead to pitches leaking over the heart of the plate.

Jake Burger sits at +370 to go deep but projects for the same home run rate (0.29) as Seager. Almost every Texas Rangers bat is showing +EV for a homer today, suggesting this is a matchup the market hasn’t fully priced in.

• Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSCA, Rangers Sports Network

Nick Kurtz (+410)

Sticking with the Rangers/Athletics game, Nick Kurtz projects as the best home run bet on the home side at +410, with a fair price around +330/+340. It’s a strong lefty vs. righty matchup, and Kurtz has already taken Jack Leiter deep in just three plate appearances.

The reigning Rookie of the Year hasn’t produced at the surface level, but the underlying power metrics are still there, including the best swing speed on the team and room for growth in his Blast Contact% numbers.

Leiter continues to give up loud contact and is coming off a four-walk, two-homer outing vs. the Dodgers. Plus, not many pitchers enjoy working at Sutter Health Park.

• Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSCA, Rangers Sports Network

Yandy Diaz (+470)

The home-run setting is strong on the South Side of Chicago today, with double-digit winds blowing out to left-center field. The Tampa Bay Rays also get the ninth-inning guarantee and a favorable group of arms to target.

Opener Jordan Leasure could go a couple of innings, and two of the six hits he’s allowed have left the yard. He’s expected to hand it off to lefty Anthony Kay, who has posted solid surface numbers but has shown signs of regression.

His command has been shaky with eight walks in 14+ innings, and, to get nerdy, his ideal attack angle rate ranks near the bottom of the league, meaning hitters are consistently getting optimal launch angles against him.

I'm backing Yandy Diaz at +470. He hits at the top of the order and could see five plate appearances. His BlastCon% is the best on the team, and he is red-hot with a hit and an RBI in five straight games. The top of this Tampa Bay lineup could do some damage and might be worth a HR round robin. 

• Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Rays.TV, CHSN

Today’s HR parlay

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Texas Rangers @ Athletics

Thursday, April 16, 2026, 2:05 PM CDT (105.3 The Fan / Rangers Sports Network)

Sutter Health Park

RHP Jack Leiter vs. LHP Jacob Lopez

Go Rangers!

Go Rays!

After finally snapping a six-game losing streak in last night’s 2-1 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays, the Brewers have a chance to build a bit of momentum and end the homestand on a high note.

Brandon Sproat gets the ball today as he looks for his first win as a Brewer. The right-hander has a 10.45 ERA through three appearances this season, though his last outing (3 2/3 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 K, 3 BB in relief) was a significant improvement over the first two. Hopefully he can limit the walks and keep showing signs of improvement against a Blue Jays offense missing George Springer and Alejandro Kirk.

On the mound for Toronto is Patrick Corbin. The veteran lefty had a 4.40 ERA last year, his best mark since the 2019 season. Corbin struggled in his season debut on Saturday, giving up six hits and four earned runs over four innings against the Twins.

Lineup regulars Brandon Lockridge, Brice Turang, and William Contreras make up the top of today’s order. Gary Sánchez, who’s already hit five home runs this season, hits cleanup.

With injuries mounting for the Brewers, the rest of the lineup is pretty thin. Despite snapping the losing streak, Milwaukee still holds the fourth-worst OPS in baseball over the last seven games. Luis Rengifo, Luis Matos, David Hamilton, and Joey Ortiz — hitting fifth, sixth, eighth, and ninth respectively  — all have an OPS under .600.

Hitting seventh and making his debut as a Milwaukee Brewer is left fielder Greg Jones. Jones is 1-for-7 in his major league career, although his one hit was a 419-foot home run.

First pitch is slated for 12:40 p.m. You can catch the television broadcast on Brewers.TV or listen to the game on WTMJ 620 and the Brewers Radio Network.

Homestand finale

📺: https://t.co/eycfmE2vgm
📻: WTMJ

→ https://t.co/mvGXoRMTFSpic.twitter.com/QFC2D63Lqo

— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) April 16, 2026

Going for the series win! #BlueJays50pic.twitter.com/0LEEsRbkng

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) April 16, 2026

Game three of three with the Brewers. This will take them through their sixth series of the season. So will be starting to see what the Jays are by now. Of course, I’m writing this before the season starts.

Let’s see….I’ve said everything I need to about Milwaukee in the first two GameThreads. And, as you read this, I’m still somewhere in Japan. Hopefully seeing a baseball game. My wife has us going to watch sumo wrestling. I’m totally not interested in it, but she does a lot of things that I like and she’s not interested in.

I’m looking forward to the food though. Tasting different things than I have at home is one of the appeals of travel. I’m not a big fan of sake, but we are going to a tasting and I’m interesting in tasting different types. There are a number of good Japanese Whiskeys and I’m hoping to taste some of those too.

---

Go Jays Go.

After Monday night’s heavyweight fight, Tuesday’s dud, and Wednesday’s pull-a-“W”-out-of-the-hat magic trick, this wacky and often less-than-fun series with the Angels wraps up this afternoon. The Yankees get to hand the ball to their ace, Max Fried, while the Angels appear ready to take the opener approach in this getaway game.

Both of New York’s victories in this series have felt more exhausting than celebratory. They have been the kind of games that leave the dugout, and the fanbase, relieved more than triumphant. Between swings in momentum, defensive miscues, and the emotional whiplash of close finishes, the Yankees have still managed to take two of the first three despite Mike Trout going full 2019, blasting four home runs and driving in eight runs through the opening three games.

The good news for the Yankees is that the ball is in the exact hands they want for a game like this. Ace Max Fried will try to reel Trout back in and keep the rest of the Halos in the clouds long enough for New York to take the series and finally exhale.

Fried enters at 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 20 strikeouts, giving the Yankees their most stabilizing presence on a day when the bullpen could certainly use a cleaner path to the late innings. After three consecutive games that have forced the Yankees to grind through relief arms—including a couple who aren’teven on the active roster anymore—and with this being the club’s 10th straight day of games, Fried’s ability to provide length may matter almost as much as the result itself. A deep outing would not only help secure the series, but also better position the Yankees for the Royals, who arrive in the Bronx this weekend for a three-game set.

The Angels will hope the opener allows them to fly home with a split, as they have chosen veteran lefty Brent Suter to take the ball first. Suter started his career with the Brewers before short stints in Colorado and Cincinnati, eventually landing with the Angels this past offseason. In the early going, he has appeared in six games and allowed three earned runs across 13 innings, with his last outing coming on April 11th when he worked 3.2 scoreless innings against the Reds in Cincinnati.

So far this season, Suter has not allowed an earned run against any team other than the Mariners, which is exactly the kind of oddly specific baseball note that should make Yankees fans a little nervous. Make no mistake about it, the Angels waiting until the last minute to announce their starter did little to inspire confidence in a Yankees offense that has spent much of this series making mystery arms look more dangerous than they are.

Yes, Ben Rice has been excellent, yet the Yankees keep sitting him. Aaron Judge has been good, but not yet Judge good (albeit nearly matching Trout with three homers of his own in this series), while Giancarlo Stanton has drifted into single-merchant territory and Cody Bellinger currently looks like he is swinging a pool noodle at the plate.

I could keep going and pile on, but the rest of the regulars will not get any extra baggage from me until they are hitting above .200. For the record, five regulars currently sit below that mark, at .119, .164, .185, .186, and .191. For a lineup with this much talent, today would be a nice day for the bottom of the order to stop letting opposing pitchers look and post numbers like prime Randy Johnson.

Speaking of the lineup, after last night’s sprint home to score the winning run, Austin Wells gets the day off, and the second-hottest hitter on the Yankees right now, Amed Rosario, gets the start at third. Rosario will bat sixth behind Rice, and the lineup as a whole makes a lot more sense than some of the previous configurations, even if one still has to wonder if Rice and Bellinger will eventually be flipped to better protect Judge in the three-hole.

The Yankees have already proven they can survive messy baseball against the Halos. Cleaning it up and taking the series behind their ace, though, would allow them to sleep a little easier in their own beds tonight before a makeshift offday—or at least a true night off—arrives after the final out. In a long season, getaway games often reveal how good teams convert survival into momentum, and this feels like one of those afternoons. Taking a series after surviving Trout in full shark mode, with two walk-off wins and a gem from your ace, might be exactly what this team needs to start playing better baseball.

Here’s to hoping for a less wild ride this afternoon. If nothing else, let’s all enjoy getting to watch a little Yankees matinee baseball on a beautiful spring day in the best city in the country.

How to watch

Location: Yankee Stadium — Bronx, NY

First pitch: 1:35 pm ET

TV broadcast: Yankees – YES | FanDuel Sports Network West

Radio broadcast: WFAN 660/101.9 FM, WADO 1280, KLAA 830

For updates, follow us on BlueSky, Twitter, and Instagram, and like us on Facebook.

Thursday Matinee 🔥#RepBXpic.twitter.com/z6XQ75kbfo

— New York Yankees (@Yankees) April 16, 2026

wrapping up the road trip 🚗

📺: FanDuel Sports Network West
📻: @AngelsRadioKLAA#RepTheHalo x @FBMSupplypic.twitter.com/FBxaj9wS1m

— Los Angeles Angels (@Angels) April 16, 2026

This is going to be a piece about patience and taking it slow. I was going to start it off with a joke about stopping to smell the flowers above the left field wall, but they removed those a season or two ago, and I couldn’t quite come up with another lede, so the seams are showing a bit. And not showing in an effective, “oh god, that’s a Zack Wheeler four-seamer coming at me”, way. Anyhow. Bryce Harper’s first pitch swing percentage is down almost double digits this year.

Specifically, it’s down 9.7%, to 44.4% (all stats cited are taken from before yesterday’s game). He’s gone from swinging at a majority of first offerings to passing on most of them, though he’s still quite eager to get the at-bat started with a mighty hack. Small sample size caveats apply, but that’s still a pretty big change. His overall swing rate is down by 3.4%, so this would seem to be more than a general decision to swing less— it’s concentrated on the first swing. Although Harper’s swing is lethal, you can see the logic in his starting fewer at-bats with one: pitchers really don’t like to give Harper pitches in the zone, and they’re increasingly reluctant to give him the fastballs he feasts on. So why not start off by taking one of those pitches outside, getting into a hitter’s count, and forcing them to give him the fastball?

That would be sensible strategy, but it’s also not what’s happening. His first pitch swing rate is way down, but his first pitch strike rate has barely changed from last year (up 0.8%). Any benefit he’s getting with fewer first pitch whiffs and fouls is being offset by something. The only thing it could be, really, is that he’s getting more pitches in the zone, and thus taking more called strikes. His overall in zone percentage is actually down a bit from last year, though only by the small margin of 2.5%.

But if we look only at pitches on a 0-0 count, his in-zone percentage has increased from 45.8% to 52.8%. As Bryce has dropped his first pitch swings to under 50%, pitchers have raised their first pitch offerings in the zone to over 50%. Hence the lack of change in his first pitch strike rate. Pitchers have also changed which pitches they’re offering him on 0-0 counts: last year he got fastballs for the plurality of his initial offerings, but this year, and for the first time in his career, he’s getting more breaking balls than fastballs to start. Pitchers are starting to pitch Bryce backwards. He seems to be making an effort to swing less at breaking balls this year, and not just in 0-0 counts: overall, his swing rate against the moving stuff has dropped by 10%.

All this raises a question about what we’re seeing. Are pitchers offering Harper more first pitches in the zone because he’s swinging at them less? Or is Harper swinging less at first pitches because of what pitchers are offering him? Unlike the question of the chicken and the egg, we can make some progress towards answering this (also, did the Phanatic, being a bird, come from an egg? That’s beyond the purview of this piece, and also a little uncomfortable to think about).

See, Bryce isn’t alone. Taken as a team, the Phillies have dropped their first pitch swing rate by 7.7%, more than any other team in baseball. In part, that’s the product of a change in team composition: the Phillies parted ways with Nick Castellanos, who swung at a greater proportion on first pitches than anyone else in baseball in 2025, and replaced him with Adolis García, who ranked 100th for first pitch swing %. But it’s not just about the change in personnel:

Player	First Pitch Swing %, 2025	First Pitch Swing %, 2026	Change, Year over Year
Bryce Harper	54.10%	44.40%	-9.70%
Trea Turner	38.40%	30.70%	-7.70%
Alec Bohm	35.30%	28.80%	-6.50%
Adolis García	33.20%	15.90%	-17.30%
Brandon Marsh	32.10%	28.60%	-3.50%
J.T. Realmuto	29.50%	28.60%	-0.90%
Kyle Schwarber	27.50%	22.70%	-4.80%
Bryson Stott	13.40%	11.90%	-1.50%

All of the Phillies starters have dropped their first pitch swing rate from last year (we’ll exclude Justin Crawford here, since he’s a rookie and has no MLB data from last year). Even Bryson Stott, who swings at first pitches about as often as blue moons appear on leap years, has somehow found a way to do so less often. Part of this is (like everything else in April), small sample size. Case in point, during the time between my starting to poke around this topic and actually writing this, Stott’s decrease in first pitch swing % went from “wow, that’s a big drop” to “that’s a small, but notable drop” to “I’m pretty sure this doesn’t mean anything”. Realmuto’s drop also seems small enough to be negligible. But given that the growing reluctance to swing at the first offering is spread out across the entire team, it seems like there may be something real here.

The Phillies may be telling their hitters to take a more patient approach, to swing less at the first pitch (and not just at the first pitch— they’ve dropped their overall swing rate by 3.1%, more than all but five other clubs). That’s decreased their first pitch strike percentage by a bit (2.8%). I’m not so convinced that the decline in first pitch swing rate for the Phillies with small declines is all that meaningful; Realmuto and Stott’s declines are small enough to be noise, and Marsh and Schwarber’s drops could also turn out to be the same. But Harper and García seem to be genuinely more reluctant to swing at the opening offering, at least in the early going. It’s clear to me why Harper might want to make that change; only Castellanos was more likely to swing at first pitches last year, and pitchers are happy to exploit that. García’s change in approach is a little more surprising, both because of the size of the drop, and because he wasn’t unusually likely to swing at first offerings last year. But García is looking to return to form after an underwhelming 2025, and finding a way to get into more hitters counts certainly couldn’t hurt.

And on a team-wide level, the reasoning may be simple: no team in baseball was less likely to get a pitch in the zone last year. If pitchers aren’t inclined to give you something in the zone, taking fewer swings on first pitches gets you more 1-0 counts, and thus more pressure for the next pitch to be in the zone. Eventually, if pitchers realize giving a Phillie an out of the zone pitch on 0-0 is likely to get them a 1-0 count, then they’ll start off more at-bats with pitches in the zone.

It’s early. Not enough time has passed to gauge precisely how much of this is intentional strategy that’ll stick, and not enough time has passed to see how opposing pitchers will respond. So far, the Phillies are actually somewhat less likely to get pitches in the zone than they were last year. A lot of this could turn out to be noise. Still, it’s worth taking a swing at the first offering of early season data— even if the Phillies are taking the opposite approach.

After 21 individual articles covering the best of what the Seattle Mariners have to offer in their minor league system, Colt Emerson has officially been crowned as Lookout Landing’s top prospect for the 2026 season, concluding our annual rankings. Having already signed a record-breaking extension earlier this season, Emerson exemplifies everything the Mariners want in a young shortstop and will be a key part of this team for the next decade or longer. His highly anticipated promotion is slated to be at some point this season, and though he’s already making major league money as a 20 year old, expect him to get some additional seasoning in Triple-A before he officially breaks through to the big leagues.

Colt Emerson goes oppo for a 2-run HR! pic.twitter.com/Yp2lPLkwEX

— Mariners Minors (@MiLBMariners) March 27, 2026

Emerson features premium bat-to-ball skills, budding power, and excellent plate discipline, a prototypical offensive approach of a young shortstop primed to excel at the next level. Perhaps even more important, however, is the fact he’s now a lock to stick up the middle, taking massive strides defensively and looking like a plus defender at the position on a nightly basis. He’s got a big time throwing arm and is fluid in his actions, showing off range that the Mariners have lacked for several years now. He’s a dynamic glove that doubles as an ideal table-setter atop a lineup.

Colt Emerson is too good. pic.twitter.com/LuSHY2JZXX

— Mariners Minors (@MiLBMariners) April 3, 2026

As of now, the goal for Emerson is to polish his offensive approach against veteran pitchers in Triple-A. The lower levels of the minor league typically feature a decent spread of raw “stuff” and can give hitters a taste of how pitches are moving, but Double-A and up is where things really step up. With just north of 200 PA’s at or above Double-A, getting experience against superior stuff is the final step in Emerson’s development and ultimately is what’s keeping him in the minors for now. At just 20 years old, he’s obviously way ahead of schedule and should be given plenty of time to develop regardless of his contract status. The Mariners are in on Emerson for the long haul; messing with his development in order to get him on to a roster that doesn’t have a clear role for him makes little sense and could wind up doing significantly more harm than good.

Thank you to all who have read along with this series! Hopefully the past two and a half months were able to provide some good context on state of the farm system and shine a light on some guys that you hadn’t yet heard of. We’ll still have weekly farm system updates every Monday if your prospect fix hasn’t yet been satiated, providing active updates to your new favorite farm hands. Sound off in the comments and Go Mariners!