2026 Chicago Cubs player profiles: Ryan Rolison

Ryan Perry Rolison was born in Jackson, TN 28 years ago. The 6’2” left-hander toiled for Colorado for four years before joining the Cubs, making little impact in the Major Leagues prior to coming to Chicago.

The data from three innings of Spring Training ball don’t point to his continuing any further north than Des Moines in the near future — he’s given up a home run and six earned runs so far. He’ll likely get more mound time but the signs are not auspicious at present.

This is in line with his career so far. He was a first-round pick (#22), too, by the Rockies in 2018. The Cubs are the third team to acquire Rolison over the winter, as he was previously acquired from Atlanta by the White Sox.

Rolison pitched 42.1 innings for the Rockies in 2025. His 7.02 ERA attests to his habit of throwing the gopher ball. He allowed 11 long flies in those 42.1 innings.

He has a good arm but I’m not sure what the Cubs expect from him. His numbers are alarmingly bad. He gives up a ton of hits, walks more men than most pitchers.

It wouldn’t be a complete surprise if he was DFA’d. But Iowa needs pitching, too. He has the four pitches — fastball, slider, curve, change, and his mid-90s FB velocity is not so bad. But something clearly is ‘off’.

Andrew Painter’s fastball shape is a worry. Here’s why.

CLEARWATER, FL - MARCH 07: Philadelphia Phillies Pitcher Andrew Painter (76) delivers a pitch to the plate during the spring training game between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Philadelphia Phillies on March 07, 2026 at BayCare Ballpark in Clearwater, Florida. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

This past Saturday was Andrew Painter’s second start of the spring and if you looked at a box score, you’d be rather happy with the results. Three innings pitched in which he gave up no runs, even against a depleted Blue Jays lineup, is cause for optimism that corners are being turned in his development. However, scour the various pitch modeling “experts” that exist and you’d come away with a different point of view of what he pitched like.

Even with the results that showed Painter didn’t excel with under the hood metrics, he still did not allow a run, the ultimate goal of pitching. Yet pair that with his first spring start and you’ll start to see a pattern forming.

Postgame, Painter talked about his outing and noted that his fastball command was not there during his start, nor were many of his pitches.

“I didn’t have my best stuff today,” Painter said. “Four-pitch walk to start, kind of go into a hole, but you’ve got to go out there and compete and get yourself out of it. I thought I made some good pitches. I thought the spin was good. I would love to get the changeup going a little bit, but you’ve got to take what you’re given that day and work with it.”

It’s part of his maturation as a starting pitcher in the major leagues, that he would be able to go through situations like that and be able to come out on the other side with a decent outing. For a spring start, that’s both encouraging and concerning at the same time. Going back to those pitch modeling “experts”, both posts that are given talk about Painter’s lacking good fastball “shape”, something that could be a death knell for some pitchers. This is where, despite his putting up another shortened start of 0’s on the board, there is an underlying concern with his season might unfold. But what exactly are they talking about when it comes to Painter’s “fastball shape”? Let’s explore.

The first thing to understand is that when people are talking about said shape, they’re focusing more on the four seam fastball. Induced vertical break (IVB) is a fastball’s vertical movement, only without gravity, “rising” as it approaches the plate even though we know that the concept of gravity will not allow that. Pitches with good IVB are going to arrive at home plate from the vantage point of looking like it is not moving downwards as it is supposed to and induces more swings either underneath or on the bottom half of the ball, leading to whiffs or easily caught fly balls. Fastballs that have an IVB of 16 inches would be something we would consider average, so anything above is great, anything below is going to be an issue. That may not seem like a lot, but as the old axiom goes, baseball is a game of inches. One of Andrew Painter’s biggest strengths as a prospect was that he was able to combine upper tier fastball velocity with above average IVB to create an elite fastball that he could use in the upper quadrants of the strike zone, meaning he missed barrels and bats.

Post-Tommy John surgery, that pitch and the form that it was in is now missing. Seeing these pitch model experts talk about fastball shape concern with Painter might be startling at first, but it’s nothing new that it’s current shape is something that is now a bug in his pitching profile’s ointment. Matt Winkelman noted this in his write up this offseason:

The problems start with Painter’s four seam fastball. Once an elite pitch before the injury, it was a liability by the end of the season. Predictably for a pitcher ramping back up from not pitching for two years, he gradually lost a little bit of velocity month over month. His arm slot also changed, and it led to less vertical movement. Since Painter’s height is never going to give him good attack angle on the pitch, the loss of movement led to it being very hittable in the strike zone.

It’s also something that Jarrett Seidler noted when doing his writeups on the Phillies’ system for Baseball Prospectus:

His fastball shape is just straight up worse; he’s lost nearly an inch and a half of vert while his release traits have been all over the place, and ultimately got more generic as the season went along. He doesn’t spot the pitch nearly as well as he used to or scrape triple digits as much, and the pre-surgery vs. post-surgery differences in whiff generation are drastic. Based solely on 2025, he looks like a sinker-primary candidate, and the old reports of a guy with a 70 four-seamer don’t match up.

Again, these are reports one does not want to see when discussing the team’s top pitching prospect and likely candidate for a rotation spot in 2026. Both of them talk about Painter’s changes from when he was actually pitching, but without some numbers to look at and compare ourselves, it can be difficult to just accept as gospel. So, it’s best to compare apples to apples and look at Painter pre- and post-surgery.

Using Robert Orr’s amazing work, we can compare Painter’s fastball shape from when he pitched in Clearwater in 2022, when we have available Statcast data for him, and the majority of his season in 2025 in Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

Metrics20222025
IVB (in.)16.915.5
HB (in.)-3.8-5.5
VAA5.125.35
Velocity (mph)96.996.9
SwStr (%)228.6

This is what we call confirmation of the scouting reports. While the maintaining of velocity, or at least his getting back to his pre-surgery levels is great, there are two things that jump out. The first is the loss of the ability to induce swinging strikes with the pitch. Even with a fastball that averages in the upper nineties, touching 100+, even Triple-A hitters are going to be able to square it up if it is flat. This leads to the aforementioned concerns both from the scouting reports and the data from which they are partially based: the loss of vertical movement is very real and very much an issue. Without getting that ride on his fastball that he used to such success when he started pitching professionally, he’s going to start seeing major league hitters take that pitch and do more damage with it.

Now, when using that earlier data point of 15 inches of IVB being average, this may not seem like a big deal. After, with that starting point in mind, the IVB on Painter’s fastball seems like something that we would consider to be decent. Yet let’s consider some major league data. Using Baseball Savant, we can do a league-wide search for pitches that have Painter’s current velocity and shape from the spring and see how batters fared against them in 2025. So, let’s set the parameters: fastball velocity between 95 and 97 miles per hour with vertical movement that is between 15 and 17 inches.

The average wOBA against that type of pitch in 2025: .379.

Were Painter to be able to add even a few tenths of an inch of induced vertical break, changing the search to between 17 and 18 inches, maintaining the same velocity, the average wOBA against that type of pitch is much more palatable: .317.

To put it into player terms, that’s the difference between the batter being Juan Soto and Trevor Larnach.

Another thing that was pointed out to me by Matt Winkelman was the loss of cut on his fastball as well. We were discussing this topic and he noted that at it’s best, Painter’s four seam fastball has cutting action to it as well as near elite IVB. Both of those things went backwards, hence the concern for what that fastball shape is looking like these past two starts. He also noted that at times, Statcast is thrown for a loop by classifying his sinker as a four-seam as well, causing some of the data to be a bit wonky, but I wonder if that happened enough to influence the numbers that much.

The lack of induced vertical break on his four-seam fastball, or at least the drop in Painter’s data, and loss of the natural cut he was leaning towards having is going to be an issue for him once he finally does ascend to the major leagues. A fastball with these characteristics is akin to the one that needs above average to elite secondaries to let him get away with it and Painter simply is not there yet. We can douse some of this panic by understanding that we basing all of this concern on two spring starts, lest people get too overly worried. The team was focusing a lot this offseason on making sure that Painter’s arm slot was getting back to where it was, which may have led to some of the issues he had with his fastball in 2025. If that gets “fixed”, and by the sounds of it, it has, the team can then move on to the next part of concern that surrounds his fastball and see if they can get that pitch to jump a little bit more. Because as the numbers show, if his fastball continues on with its current shape and form, he’s going to have to rely either more on his sinker (which isn’t really that much better) or his secondaries to consistently get major league hitters out.

Not exactly the news one wants to hear about their top pitching prospect.

In celebration of the fat ballplayer

SURPRISE, AZ - MARCH 02: Alfredo Despaigne #54 of Team Cuba poses for a photo during the Team Cuba photo day at Surprise Stadium on Monday, March 2, 2026 in Surprise, Arizona. (Photo by Jason Hanna/WBCI/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

If you’re a hardcore baseball fan in the 21st century, then you probably frequently find yourself in the position of being a baseball defender.

Baseball doesn’t actually need defending. It’s one of the world’s great global games and is enjoyed in various forms by hundreds of millions of people every year. It’s going to outlive all of us, I promise. But because of baseball’s historical and cultural position in America, it is constantly subjected to a weird kind of forensic analysis that isn’t usually applied to other sports: is it dying?1 Is it too slow?2 Do the zoomers watch it?3 Are baseball players even athletes?4 Is it somehow a bad thing that one of its teams is good and rich and popular?5 The questions get asked and the baseball defenders are forced to answer them.

I have played the role of baseball defender for most of my life. And I probably will continue to do so. I love baseball and I have a penchant for arguing; it’s only natural that these two things are going to collide like a third baseman and left fielder under a pop-up. But, after watching the taut Cuba-Puerto Rico game last night and physically feeling the joy coursing through my veins while watching Alfredo Despaigne chug his way into second base with a double, I’ve decided there’s one baseball fight I’m going to drop: I’m going to stop arguing with people who tell me that baseball players are fat.

As a fan of David Ortiz, I’ve found myself in this argument a lot. And, to be clear, I still maintain what I’ve always maintained: that the vast majority of baseball players (non-Pablo Sandoval division) commonly thought of as “fat” do not actually fit that word as it is typically used. I have spent years explaining to people that the baseball uniform itself makes the players look far more rotund than they actually are. If you saw David Ortiz walk by you in street clothes, you wouldn’t say “Hey, look at that fat guy.” You would say “Holy shit, the bull from Ferdinand learned how to walk upright. And also spends a lot of money on sunglasses.“

But I’m done with that now. Because what I accepted last night is that, even if they may not actually be fat compared to the rest of us, there are, of course, many baseball players who are fatter than literally any player in the NBA or Premier League. And not only is that perfectly fine, it’s actually a great thing.

Sports reflect society. And we are one fat ass society, folks. Our food is garbage, we automate every kind of physical labor we can, and we’ve physically built most of the American landscape in way that not only discourages walking, but makes it actively dangerous to do so. Who needs a nice, pleasant twenty-five minute commute on the sidewalk when we can instead move from our house stuck in some hellscape of suburban sprawl to our jobs in some hellscape of an office park without taking more than a hundred steps in a row at any given time?

We are fat and we’re getting fatter. Pixar’s Wall-E no longer looks like satire. But we’re still capable of doing some amazing things. And it is cool as hell that Alfredo Despaigne, despite being 39-years-old and possessing the body of a suburban dad who wears a shirt at the beach, is still capable of doing this to 98 MPH heat at the top of the zone:

Sports, at their best, are celebrations of what it means to be human. And it is a wonderful thing that baseball has room for a wider variety of humans (literally) than any other sport. Alfredo Despaigne isn’t a great athlete despite his body. He’s a great athlete with his body. And baseball is better for it.

Keep on chugging, Alfredo — all the way around the bases.


The answers to the questions posed above: (1) No. (2) It is slow, but we need more slow things in our lives right now. (3) I have no idea. They never leave their apartments so I can’t ask them. (4) If this is what people actually cared about, then track and field would be a lot more popular than it is. (5) Obviously not for anyone who thinks about the salary cap debate for more than five seconds.

World Baseball Classic: USA beats Mexico, Puerto Rico advances to quarterfinals

SAN JUAN, PUERTO RICO - MARCH 09: Edwin Díaz #39 of Team Puerto Rico celebrates a 4-1 victory against Team Cuba after the game during the 2026 World Baseball Classic at Hiram Bithorn Stadium on March 09, 2026 in San Juan, Puerto Rico. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The United States won a showdown with Mexico on Monday night, and Puerto Rico clinched a berth in the quarterfinals, highlighting Dodgers-related action at the World Baseball Classic.

Neither Will Smith nor Clayton Kershaw played on Monday, but Team USA beat Mexico 5-3 to improve to 3-0 in Pool B in Houston. The U.S. hasn’t yet clinched a quarterfinal spot just yet, but can win the pool on Tuesday against Italy, which is 2-0 thus far.

There still exists a possibility for a three-way tie at 3-1 between Team USA, Italy, and Mexico. In that scenario (Italy beats USA Tuesday, Mexico beats Italy on Wednesday), the next tiebreaker is based on defensive runs allowed, and how Korea advanced in a three-way tie at 2-2 in Pool C in Tokyo:

The tied teams shall be ranked in the standings according to the lowest quotient of fewest runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in the games in that round between the teams tied.

We’ll delve into the tiebreaker scenarios later, if Team USA loses Tuesday to Italy. But for now they are 3-0.


Puerto Rico clinched a spot in the quarterfinals on Monday with a .. win over Cuba, and is now 3-0 in Pool A in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Edwin Díaz pitched a perfect ninth inning with two strikeouts to earn the save.

In two games thus far in the WBC, Díaz has pitched two scoreless innings with one hit allowed, and five strikeouts in his seven batters faced.

Puerto Rico plays Canada on Tuesday and can clinch Pool A with a win. If Puerto Rico wins Pool A, they will play the Pool B runner-up on Friday in Houston. If Puerto Rico finishes second in Pool A, they play the Pool B winner on Saturday.


Japan finished off Pool C at 4-0 with a 9-0 win over Czechia on Tuesday morning. Because Japan already clinched the pool in three games, Shohei Ohtani did not play in this game, though he did warm up the right fielder during the game, and gave a baseball to a fan.

Ohtani in his three WBC games so far had five hits, including two home runs and a double, in nine at-bats, plus four strikeouts, hitting .556/.692/1.333.

Thus far, five of the eight quarterfinal teams are known. Japan won Pool C, and Korea was the Pool C runner-up, and Puerto Rico is in. Pool D will be decided on Wednesday, with 3-0 Dominican Republic facing 3-0 Venezuela. Both teams have already clinched a spot in the quarterfinals.

Tuesday schedule
  • 4 p.m. PT: Puerto Rico vs. Canada (Tubi)
  • 4 p.m.: Netherlands vs. Israel (Fox Sports app)
  • 6 p.m.: United States vs. Italy (FS1)

Should the Orioles go with a six-man starting rotation?

Aug 23, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Dean Kremer (64) delivers during the first inning against the Houston Astros at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images | Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Orioles fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

If nothing else changes with the health of their starting pitchers between now and the start of the regular season, the Orioles have six experienced major league starters ready to go: Chris Bassitt, Shane Baz, Kyle Bradish, Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer, and Trevor Rogers. Basic math tells us that’s one more starter than the five-man rotation that’s been standard in baseball for decades now.

Every one of those six guys has enough of a major league track record that it would be a surprise to see them shunted into the bullpen, or even the minors for those who can still be sent there. Bradish and Rogers certainly aren’t going anywhere based on recent performance. Bassitt and Eflin are on $10+ million contracts. The Orioles traded four prospects for Baz. Then there’s Kremer, who isn’t the most high-ceiling of this bunch but has a perfectly fine set of career numbers.

This week’s survey is a simple question: Do you think the Orioles should go for a six-man rotation with this group?

Over a full season, a six-man rotation means every starting pitcher would end up with 27 starts rather than the 32-33 starts that pitchers in a five-man rotation typically get. On one hand, it’s not good for the Orioles if they’re diluting the number of games for Bradish and Rogers to potentially dominate. On the other hand, given that those guys aren’t guaranteed good health, it’s not a bad way to limit their innings and give a little extra rest.

The only price paid by a six-man rotation is there’s one fewer pitcher in the bullpen, and it’s not like the Orioles have so many great relief options that the idea of trimming one of them is unappealing.

Results will be posted later in the week.

Luis Robert Jr. will try to stay healthy and find past form at the plate

PORT ST. LUCIE, FL - FEBRUARY 19: Luis Robert Jr. #88 of the New York Mets poses for a photo during the New York Mets photo day at Clover Park on Thursday, February 19, 2026 in Port St. Lucie, Florida. (Photo by Kelly Gavin/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

Coming off a pair of 84 wRC+ seasons in 2024 and 2025, Luis Robert Jr. was traded by the White Sox to the Mets in late January. The oft-injured 28-year-old Cuban center fielder had been with Chicago since playing rookie ball in 2017.

At his very best in 2023, Robert was a force to be reckoned with. Known for excellent defense, he hit .264/.315/.542 with 38 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 129 wRC+ that year, and most importantly, he made 595 plate appearances and played 145 games. Both of those playing time numbers are by far his single-season bests, and that relative durability saw him finish that season with 4.9 fWAR.

Over the past two years, however, Robert averaged just 105 games played. Combined with the aforementioned struggles at the plate, he was worth just 1.8 fWAR in total over that span.

The Mets have been playing things very slow with their players who’ve dealt with injuries in recent years thus far in spring training, and if you were hoping to get a glimpse of what Robert might look like, well, you’ll have to wait at least a couple more days. Mets manager Carlos Mendoza has said that he hopes Robert will get into a major league spring training game after the team’s off day on Wednesday. And Opening Day is just two weeks from this Thursday.

As for projections, the systems published at FanGraphs have Robert at roughly league average with the bat heading into the season, and that would be an upgrade from what he’s done over the past two years. All of them see him playing somewhere between 117 and 131 games, and he’s projected to be roughly a two-to-three win player.

Having cycled through lots of defense-first center fielders over the past few seasons, the Mets have their most expensive question mark of a defense-first center fielder yet with Robert penciled in as their Opening Day starter at the position. If the team’s approach to easing him into the season with a shortened spring training keeps him on the field, Robert should provide stability, as his defense is enough to carry him and make him a valuable player.

Yankees 2026 Season Preview: Ryan Weathers

TAMPA, FL - FEBRUARY 25: Ryan Weathers #40 of the New York Yankees pitches during the game against the Washington Nationals at George M. Steinbrenner Field on February 25, 2026 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by New York Yankees/Getty Images) | Getty Images

As has been the case with all of our coverage surrounding young starting pitchers for the Yankees, their importance to the club early in the year would be hard to overstate. With each of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, and Clarke Schmidt on the shelf to begin the season, depth in the rotation will be vital, with several young arms being asked to step up in their absence and perhaps beyond.

Ryan Weathers, a 26-year-old lefty who was acquired in a deal this offseason, will almost certainly be one of them. He has yet to post a full season as a starter in the majors, but as Peter outlined shortly after the trade, he has impressive raw tools, which have drawn plenty of eyes this spring. What his role will be come September or October could be anyone’s guess, but for now, he will likely be leaned on for some legitimate work to begin the year.

2025 Stats (with Marlins): 8 starts, 38.1 IP, 2-2, 3.99 ERA (111 ERA+), 4.60 FIP, 4.03 xFIP, 22.3% K%, 7.2% BB%, 1.64 HR/9, 1.28 WHIP, 0.2 fWAR

2026 FanGraphs Depth Charts projections: 37 appearances (19 starts), 118 IP, 7-7, 4.14 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 22.0% K%, 8.5% BB%, 1.18 HR/9, 1.29 WHIP, 1.2 fWAR

The much-celebrated son of 1996 Yankees World Series champion reliever David Weathers, Ryan was originally drafted with the seventh overall pick by the Padres back in 2018 out of a Tennessee high school, and quickly ascended through the minor leagues. So quickly, in fact, that he achieved the rare feat of making his MLB debut during the postseason, in the 2020 NLDS.

Weathers made 30 appearances in his first regular season stint in ‘21, in what we’ll call an unimpressive run. Eighteen of those games were starts, and his 94.2 innings of work are still the most he’s seen in any season in the big leagues, despite his troubling ERA and FIP marks well above five.

Weathers only pitched once during the 2022 season, and when given a bigger opportunity a year later (15 games, 12 starts), the lefty was even worse, posting an ERA approaching seven and walking more than 10 percent of opposing batters. He was traded mid-year to the Marlins during that season, and although it wasn’t immediate, his time in Miami would be much more fruitful.

After arriving in South Florida, Weathers did all the right things: he walked far fewer guys, and struck out more. The impacts to his surface-level production were obvious. Over the last two combined seasons, 24 starts for Weathers, he has maintained a much more manageable 3.74 ERA while striking out 22 percent of batters with walk rates well below what he was putting up in San Diego. All things considered, the Yankees acquired the lefty in an upswing, and hope to cash in on the skills that helped him be drafted early in the first round.

In just his two outings to this point in the spring, we have seen the two sides that Weathers has to offer. In his first, the 26-year-old was terrific in 3.2 scoreless innings against the Nationals, when he allowed just one hit, avoided any walks, and struck out five.

In his second, against the Mets, he allowed five earned runs on seven hits over the course of just two innings. There were good moments, but his simply gave up too much hard contact in his brief outing. Spring is obviously for tune-ups, primarily, but the less of that Weathers that the Yankees see, the better.

The talent is fairly clear, as his plus-velocity fastball can get him places, as long as the control stays in check. Although Weathers’ time in The Show has been mostly troublesome, he has been better of late, and if the Yankees are able to unlock something in his 4-5 pitch mix, it would not be surprising to see him making starts for much of the season. Until he’s able to prove that, and that he can handle a starter’s workload, he remains one of the most glaring question marks in the Yankees projected rotation, and on their roster as a whole.


See more of the Yankees Previews series here.

Mariners News, 3/10/26: Logan Gilbert, Kade Anderson, and Michael Arroyo

SAN JUAN, PUERTO RICO - MARCH 07: Michael Arroyo #8 of Team Colombia runs to first base during the 2026 World Baseball Classic Pool A game presented by Capital One between Team Colombia and Team Canada at Hiram Bithorn Stadium on Saturday, March 7, 2026 in San Juan, Puerto Rico. (Photo by Mary DeCicco/WBCI/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

Happy Tuesday! The Mariners fell just short in a 1-2 walkoff loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks yesterday, but starter Bryan Woo impressed through four innings with three hits, no walks, and four strikeouts. The Mariners will face the Kansas City Royals at 1:10 PM this afternoon as RHP Cooper Criswell takes the mound.

With another exciting day of World Baseball Classic play, commenter Sam206 posted a great question in yesterday’s Moose Tracks comments that deserves a larger discussion: “How do you guys feel about Julio’s performance in the WBC so far? Optimistic for him to have a faster start this season? Or is it just a good WBC performance against inconsistent national team pitching?”

In Mariners news…

In the World Baseball Classic…

Around the league…

26 oddly specific predictions for the 2026 Kansas City Royals

Last weekend, my youngest son did something that amazed me so much that I decided to write this column.

In our kitchen, we have this block calendar—it has two numbered block that you can use to count down to some event. It has options for months, weeks, and days, too. We don’t always use it, but we will when it’s getting close to summer vacation, Christmas, or a vacation.

While I’m working on dinner, the youngest—he’s six—comes in and starts messing with it. “Hey, Dad.”

“Hmmm?”

“Hey, Dad, look.”

I look. He has the calendar to 95 weeks until break.

“Oh, cool,” I said, shifting back to cooking.

“Did you see?”

“Yep. What’s in 95 weeks?”

“Christmas.”

“Ha. Okay, buddy.”

We have an Amazon Echo in our kitchen, so I asked Alexa, “What’s the date 95 weeks from today?”

Wouldn’t you know it—December 25, 2027.

I said, “You’ve gotta be kidding me,” while my son gloated and laughed. Deservedly so, albeit maniacal.

In that spirit, I’ve decided to take my shot at some oddly specific predictions, but of course, this is a Kansas City Royals blog, sir and madam, so I’m incorporating them.

Now, unlike Child #2, I put some thought into my predictions. This little project took much longer than anticipated. I looked at stats, projections, the schedule, etc., and not just for the Royals. I created my own little world of which I will only provide a snippet. Trust me: consuming the whole thing wouldn’t be healthy. There’s a point to that story about Pandora.

But these predictions are safe to share. These are my 26 oddly specific predictions for the 2026 Kansas City Royals.

  1. The Royals will win their first game of the season in their second game before taking the series from Atlanta that Sunday.
  2. Maikel Garcia will hit the first home run of the year for the Royals in his first at-bat of the second game of the season.
  3. The Royals will finish the regular season 2-4 against the Yankees, with one victory coming on April 18 in New York and the other occurring on May 26 in Kansas City.
  4. On June 17, Lucas Erceg will officially supplant Carlos Estévezas the team’s closer.
  5. On July 2, during a home game against the Tampa Rays, Salvador Perez will hit career home run #318, surpassing George Brett as the Royals’ all-time home run leader. The home run will come against pitcher Garrett Cleavinger.
  1. With the No. 6 pick in the draft, the Royals will select Tyler Spangler, SS, De La Salle (Concord, California).
  2. These five Royals will make the All-Star game: Bobby Witt Jr., Cole Ragans, Maikel Garcia, Lucas Erceg, and Vinnie Pasquantino.
  3. Before the trade deadline, the Royals will trade two pitchers who have started at least one game for them between 2025 and 2026, and neither of those pitchers will be Kris Bubic.
  4. On August 1, the Royals will lose to the Colorado Rockies.
  5. Cole Ragans will throw his second career complete game on August 4 against the Minnesota Twins.
  6. In 2025, the Royals were shut out 15 times while shutting out their opponent 10 times. In 2026, the Royals will be shut out 10 times while shutting out their opponent 15 times.
  7. Starling Marte will appear in exactly 100 games.
  8. Eight Royals will finish the season with at least 10 home runs.
  9. Seth Lugo will lead the team in innings pitched with 193-and-1/3.
  10. In 2025, the Royals bizarrely managed to finish 26-26 against fellow American League Central teams. In 2026, against those same opponents, the Royals will finish 33-19 (11-2 against Chicago, 7-6 against Cleveland, 6-7 against Detroit, and 9-4 against Minnesota).
  11. The Royals will win the American League Central by one game.
  12. The Royals hit 159 home runs in 2025, ahead of only four other teams. The Royals will increase that total to 183 home runs in 2026, led by…
  13. Jac Caglianone, who will knock 35 homers.
  14. Matt Quatraro will be named a finalist for American League Manager of the Year, but will not win.
  15. Carter Jensen will finish second in voting for American League Rookie of the Year.
  16. Cole Ragans will finish second in the American League in strikeouts with 216.
  17. He will also finish second in the American League Cy Young voting.
  18. Vinnie Pasquantino will capture his first Silver Slugger.
  19. Bobby Witt Jr. will record his third career 30-30 season with 33 home runs and 31 stolen bases.
  1. He will also finally win his first American League MVP award.
  2. The Royals will end on their 2026 season on the road with a two-run loss.

State of the Position, 2026: Outfield

DENVER, CO - JULY 6: Jordan Beck #27, Brenton Doyle #9 and Mickey Moniak #22 of the Colorado Rockies celebrate after their 6-4 win against the Chicago White Sox at Coors Field on July 6, 2025 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Something that Colorado Rockies president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta said at Rockies Fest has stayed with me. I’m paraphrasing, but he told fans to expect to see players in spring training games playing positions they have not generally been associated with.

We’ve discussed this notion of “optionality” quite a bit. (See here and here.) And we’ve seen it in action this year as Ryan Ritter leaves the dirt for the grassy plain of left field.

As a fan, I’m all for it.

One needn’t watch many Dodger games to understand the value of players like Mookie Betts and Max Muncy who comfortably move to whatever hole needs plugging in any given game.

As a writer at Purple Row, however, it creates a quandary.

You see, “The State of the Position” is a series that evaluates positional preparedness and depth based on the players in those positions. After all, the Rockies have traditionally been a fairly “position-locked” organization. A player became a positional specialist and spent their career at that spot.

But the DePodesta/Byrnes Rockies are becoming a considerably more fluid bunch, which means I’m put in the position of speculating where I think a player will play and how good I think he’ll be there.

I’m happy to give it give it the old college try, but bear in mind that just as the Rockies are rebuilding, some of the pieces we write at Purple Row will require some rethinking until the plan becomes clearer.

The locks

Despite all my meandering in the previous section, the four primary outfielders seem clear:

Doyle’s elite defense is unquestioned. Look, Rawlings doesn’t give Gold Gloves out to just anyone, and Doyle has two of them on his mantle at home. It’s clear that 2025 was not the year he wanted, due both to injuries and personal matters. But those breath-taking Doyle robberies never get old.

McCarthy, then, will assume Beck’s spot in left — manager Warren Schaeffer has been clear about this. Due to his speed and athleticism, McCarthy is suited to covering the ground out there, and in every interview, he’s made clear that he’s confident of his ability to be effective at Coors.

That said, Beck’s defense remains a work in progress. The athleticism is unquestioned, but he’s still learning the job. He told me late last season that he worked with the Rockies body mechanics person on his defense, and it was helpful. How it plays in 2026 remains to be seen, but he’s probably got the starting job in left.

That leaves Mickey Moniak as the fourth outfielder. Moniak’s miserable defense received attention last season, and he will probably see fewer defensive innings than he did last year. But he should be viewed as the fourth outfielder.

Or should he?

Utility outfielders

Here’s where things get complicated.

The Rockies have a number of players who could easily spend significant time in the outfield:

  • Tyler Freeman
  • Willi Castro
  • Ryan Ritter
  • Troy Johnston

How much time will they spend in the outfield? We have no idea. Frankly, Schaeffer probably has no idea. Rather, these players should be seen as outfield options who can fit in — think of it as Garanimals roster construction — should the need arrive.

We know that Freeman has struggled in the outfield. Actually, he’s struggled in RF. He said last season that playing center is much easier because of the angles. Willi Castro is a very capable outfielder, though he’s never done that at Coors Field. And Ryan Ritter’s outfield skill remains to be seen, as does whether Johnston breaks camp with the Rockies.

But it’s easy to see — already — how much more versatile these outfield options are.

Remember back on August 25, 2021, when the Rockies ran out of outfielders and played Kyle Freeland in the outfield in the 10th inning of a game against the Chicago Cubs?

Kyle Freeland plays right field at Wrigley Field on August 25, 2021, in the 10th inning

Yeah, that’s not happening again.

The farm

The Rockies outfield smorgasbord has been a topic of conversation for a while. This year should see some of those questions answered. For example, Yanquiel Fernández is no longer with the Rockies.

Now to the players who appear to be on the cusp:

Veen, Condon, Carrigg, and Thomas appear closest to MLB ready.

But even then, Condon and Carrigg come as versatile players with positional optionality. Is Condon in the outfield or at first? Is Carrigg the Rockies version of Mookie Betts? There’s too much we don’t know — in a good way.

One thing worth noting, however, is that this year is probably it for former first-round draft pick Benny Montgomery, who has yet to get to Triple-A Albuquerque and has struggled to stay healthy. If he’s not on the field and making progress, he may be seeing his last days with the Rockies.

Closing thoughts

This year’s outfield promises to be especially interesting as fans search for the answers to a number of questions: Which players will move between the infield and the outfield? Will Schaeffer’s emphasis on using data and body mechanics translate to improved defense? Will Brenton Doyle be back in his 2024 form — and will he finish the season with the Rockies given all the rumors about other teams being interesting in him.

(Early prediction: I do not think we will see him in purple come August.)

But the exciting thing is that if Doyle is, in fact, traded, there are other players prepared to slide into center — or any number of positions.

The outfield is a position of depth for the Rockies. Now we wait to see how the new configurations work.


Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

Arizona Diamondbacks News 3/10: USA Tops Alek Thomas, Mexico

HOUSTON, TEXAS - MARCH 09: Aaron Judge #99 of Team United States reacts after a two run home run in the third inning against Team Mexico during a 2026 World Baseball Classic Pool B game at Daikin Park on March 09, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Diamondbacks News

Diamondbacks honored by state of Arizona for charitable giving milestone by Alex Weiner [Arizona Sports]

March 9 is a foundational day on the calendar for the Arizona Diamondbacks, as on this day in 1995, Major League Baseball awarded an expansion franchise to Phoenix.

Thirty-one years later, Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs proclaimed March 9 will be “D-backs Give Back Day” annually to honor the baseball franchise for hitting $100 million in charitable giving.

Diamondbacks’ 2026 Closer Plan is Painfully Obvious by Alex D’Agostino [SI]

The Arizona Diamondbacks have yet to name their closer, and it’s beginning to look more and more likely that it will be a closer-by-committee approach this season, with a combination of veterans like Paul Sewald, Ryan Thompson or Kevin Ginkel taking turns in the ninth inning.

And with Sewald’s track record of closing games, it feels most likely that he will be the one presented with the majority of the save opportunities, though the D-backs have been known to choose their closer based on specific-game matchups in recent seasons.

Diamondbacks’ ‘amazing young man’ Carroll continues to clear hurdles by José M. Romero [AZ Central]

Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll could start playing in major league spring training games as soon as this week, manager Torey Lovullo said before the team played the Seattle Mariners on Monday, March 9, at Salt River Fields.

Carroll, rapidly recovering from a fractured hamate suffered almost a month ago, is getting live at-bats on back fields at the Diamondbacks’ spring training facility.

Around the League

Superstars shine as USA holds off Mexico in thriller by David Adler [MLB]

In an electric atmosphere at Daikin Park on Monday night, the United States defeated Mexico, 5-3, in a thrilling showdown of undefeated World Baseball Classic rivals.

The superstars came through for the U.S., which got a dominating start from Paul Skenes and a big game by captain Aaron Judge. Skenes pitched four shutout innings with seven strikeouts in his WBC debut. Judge hit his second home run of the Classic and had a clutch outfield assist. Roman Anthony also crushed a huge three-run homer that proved to be the difference-maker.

With the win, Team USA seized control of Pool B of the 2026 Classic and exorcised some demons against a Mexican team that’s had its number in the WBC.

Dominican Republic, Venezuela, S. Korea into WBC quarters [ESPN]

Fernando Tatis Jr. hit a grand slam and drove in six runs, and the Dominican Republic clinched a spot in the World Baseball Classic quarterfinals with a 10-1 win over Israel on Monday in Miami.

Tatis homered in the second inning on a 78.5 mph changeup off Ryan Prager, standing at home plate and admiring his no-doubt drive over the left-field wall, then added a two-run single in the seventh. Geraldo Perdomo had put the Dominicans ahead with a bases-loaded walk.

Tatis’ six RBIs tied Adrian González in 2009 for second most in a WBC game, one behind Ken Griffey Jr.’s record in 2006.

The Dominican Republic’s Hitters Are Dangerous, But They Haven’t Really Been Tested Yet by Matt Martell [FanGraphs]

Through the first two games of the World Baseball Classic, the Dominican Republic had scored 24 runs, recorded 22 hits, and drawn 18 walks. Fifteen of those 24 runs had come on the team’s seven home runs. Collectively, the Dominican hitters were slashing .361/.506/.754; their 1.260 OPS was two points better than Babe Ruth’s was in 1927. They couldn’t possibly keep this up.

They cooled off some in Monday afternoon’s 10-1 win over Israel, lowering that slash line to a pedestrian .319/.488/.692. Those slackers.

Phillies, Jesús Luzardo Agree To Extension by Darragh McDonald [MLB Trade Rumors]

The Phillies and left-hander Jesús Luzardo have agreed to an extension, according to various reports. He was previously slated for free agency after 2026. It’s reportedly a five-year pact starting in 2027, which guarantees the Roc Nation Sports client $135MM. There is also a $32.5MM club option, though Luzardo can boost that by $2MM with each top five Cy Young finish, giving him a chance to potentially raise it as high as $42.5MM. He will receive a $1MM assignment bonus each time he is traded until he reaches 10-and-5 rights.

Happy trails, Julio Teheran

ATLANTA, GA - JULY 19: Julio Teheran #49 of the Atlanta Braves looks on during the game against the Washington Nationals at SunTrust Park on July 19, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images) | Getty Images

On March 9, 2025, long-time Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Julio Teheran announced his retirement. In the midst of the World Baseball Classic, Spring Training and the seemingly never-ending stream of injuries to Atlanta Braves starting pitchers, it is unfortunate that it was a shoulder issue that caused Teheran to miss his scheduled start for Columbia against Canada two days prior to his announcement.

The right-handed Teheran, who just turned 35 six weeks ago, made only 22 starts after departing Atlanta following the 2019 season. He last pitched in the big leagues in 2024 – ironically enough, making a start against the Braves on April 8 of that season – but injuries and ineffectiveness stymied any additional big league appearances.

The last five years were in stark contrast to his time as a starting pitcher in Atlanta. Teheran was a two-time All-Star with the Braves in 2014 and 2016 and made six-consecutive Opening Day starts for the Braves from 2014 through 2019. He made his big league debut in 2011 at age 20 but didn’t stick in the rotation until 2013.

Teheran made 30 starts in ‘13, the first of seven-straight years he made 30-or-more starts in the Atlanta rotation. He was the team’s top starter during what were some lean seasons in Atlanta from 2014 through 2017, when the Braves never won more than 80 games in a season and failed to win 70 games twice.

During his nine seasons with Atlanta, he pitched in 229 games – starting 226 times – tossing 1,360 innings for the Braves and leading the National League in starts in 2015. He was never dominant – he struck out just north of 20-percent of the batters he faced for most of his Atlanta run, with three years of a great walk-rate – but he was always solid. He did struggle a bit more during his final seasons with the Braves, when his average innings per start also dipped.

Teheran had the productivity of a productive third or fourth starter during his Atlanta tenure, but spent time at the top of the Braves’ rotation for most of his career. While that may have seemed frustrating at the time, a decade later, it is easy to have a greater appreciate of the workman-like way at which Teheren made his starts and “gave the Braves a chance to win every time out”.

Three seasons of Teheran’s career stand out above the rest. In 2013, 2014, and 2016, Teheran had an ERA of 3.21 or better and gave the Braves between 185.2 and 221 innings. His fWAR numbers come in lower than his bWAR ones, but those two services see those three seasons as three of his four best – with bWAR liking his 2019 better than 2013, although fWAR does not. FanGraphs never gave a single season of his better than 3.4 fWAR (Baseball Reference topped him out a 4.7 bWAR).

If Freddie Freeman was the bridge between two different Braves eras as a position player, Teheran was the same for the pitching staff. When Teheran made his big league debut in Philadelphia against the Phillies on May 7, 2011, the position players in the line-up included Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Martin Prado, Jason Heyward, Dan Uggla and Freeman. The Braves won 89 games that season and followed it up with 94 and 96 wins.

When Teheran made his final regular season start with Atlanta on September 24, 2019 against the Royals in Kansas City, Ronald Acuńa, Jr., Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley and Dansby Swanson were all in the line-up, as was McCann, during his return engagement with Atlanta. The Braves won 90 games in 2018 and 97 in 2019.

Teheran’s six consecutive Opening Day starts tie him with inner-circle Hall of Famer pitcher Warren Spahn. But as his career comes to a close, the Braves pitcher with whom he most closely relates is Rick Mahler, the Atlanta starter for most of the 1980’s who made five starts on Opening Day and whose career numbers are quite similar when adjusted for era to Teheran.

The Braves signed Teheran as an international free agent out of Columbia in 2007, and his 13-year MLB career was that of a solid starter whose heavy usage in his 20’s see his career detail at age 29.

For his career, he made 248 starts in 255 career games pitched with five complete games and had three shut-outs. He ended his career with an 81-82 record and 3.85 ERA. With Atlanta, his career record was 77-73 with a 3.67 ERA.

Here’s hoping he makes his way back to Atlanta this season for a warm welcome and a return to the organization where he spent the majority of his professional career.

His retirement announcement can be seen in the video embedded below (except for Apple News).

Happy trails.

Bounceback hitters for fantasy baseball 2026: Can Oneil Cruz, Matt McLain, regain value?

The key to any good fantasy baseball draft is finding value. Yes, we want to hit on our picks in the first few rounds, since those are our studs, but if we can get more production out of our mid-round picks than their draft price indicated, then we could put together a real title contender. With that in mind, this article aims to identify hitter values by examining players who seem poised to bounce back from sub-standard seasons last year.

I created a hitter leaderboard and only kept hitters who had a wRC+ under 100 and a negative Offense rating as part of their fWAR. The idea was to simply look at players who were below-average last year. I didn't want to focus on a "bounceback" from a player that was actually just fine. I then looked at their contact quality (EV90, Hard-Hit%), their overall contact profile (SwStr% and Zone Contact%), and who got unlucky on the balls they did put in play (BABIP, HR/FB). By doing that, I was able to create what I believe is a solid list of players who had "down" years last year, but deserved to have a little more success and should be set up for better seasons in 2026.

I've included ADP data because the goal is for us to be drafting players that we think can out-produce their current ADP. All ADP data is taken from NFBC Online Championship (12-team) drafts from February 24th to March 10th, which is 43 drafts.

⚾️ Coming soon: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.

Bounceback hitters for fantasy baseball 2026

NameTeamwRC+
Ozzie AlbiesATL86.88431
Jake BurgerTEX88.86301
Jordan WalkerSTL66.00093
Cam SmithHOU90.27048
Bo NaylorCLE84.52468
Casey SchmittSFG98.41955
Christian WalkerHOU98.91744
Brooks BaldwinCHW92.06455
Luis RengifoMIL72.68248
Jac CaglianoneKCR46.1761617

Most of these hitters are all players I've written about before, so you can check out my earlier articles to see more detailed write-ups. I covered Cam Smith(ADP: 325) and Jac Caglianone (ADP: 186) in my article on second-year hitters due for improvement, and I believe in both. I discussed Bo Naylor(ADP: 411) and Jordan Walker (ADP: 311) in my article on post-hype hitters, and I mentioned Ozzie Albies (ADP: 156) in my article on Pull Air%. I mentioned Christian Walker (ADP: 211) in my first base preview article, and I interviewed Jake Burger (ADP: 232) during spring training and wrote about that here. I have not yet written about Casey Schmitt, and he does not have a starting spot in San Francisco, but I wanted to mention him here because he intrigues me if he finds his way into playing time.

Brooks Baldwin - OF, Chicago White Sox (ADP: 443)

As of now, it seems like Brooks Baldwin will be the starting centerfielder for the White Sox, and I'm not sure why he isn't getting any interest. For starters, he hit .368/.427/.752 in 29 Triple-A games with 11 home runs, 38 RBI, and five steals. Yes, that didn't carry over to his big league at-bats, but what we did see was a 41% hard-hit rate and an 11% barrel rate, plus a league-average 85% zone contact rate and 11% swinging strike rate (SwStr%). So even in his first MLB games ever, he made contact at a league-average rate, and that contact was of a really high quality. Considering there is no elite competition in the outfield ready to push him out of a spot, and that Baldwin also played second base, third base, and shortstop for the White Sox last season, I think there's a good path to 500+ plate appearances for Baldwin in 2026, and I love targeting him in deeper formats.

Luis Rengifo - 3B, Milwaukee Brewers (ADP: 351)

I don't have a lot of reasons to believe in Rengifo based on 2025, I'm just gonna put that out there. However, in 331 games between 2022 and 2024, Rengifo hit .273/.323/.431 with just a 16.3% strikeout rate and 36 stolen bases. He had 24 steals in 2024 alone when the Angels started running more, so even though he doesn't post elite exit velocities or have much home run power, there is a real chance that, in a good offensive environment in Milwaukee, Rengifo could be a .260-.270 hitter with 15 steals. He's also a switch-hitter who has performed well against left-handed pitching in his career, so there is no reason for the Brewers to put him in a strict platoon. If he gets even 450 plate appearances, then he would more than meet this ADP cost.

The Likely Bounceback Hitter

NameTeamwRC+
Oneil CruzPIT85.63652
Lawrence ButlerATH95.51551
Luis Robert Jr.NYM83.53412
Bryan ReynoldsPIT99.2542
Michael Harris IIATL82.8517
Adley RutschmanBAL91.22017
Dylan CrewsWSN76.95499
Marcus SemienNYM89.02825
Adolis GarcíaPHI82.82936
Royce LewisMIN84.61139
Matt McLainCIN76.96447
J.T. RealmutoPHI93.99801
Yainer DiazHOU91.8819
Josh JungTEX91.20131
Josh LoweLAA79.23584

There are a few injury-related bouncebacks here. Lawrence Butler (ADP: 159), Luis Robert (ADP: 107), Josh Jung (ADP: 386), Dylan Crews (ADP: 168), Josh Lowe (ADP: 296), Royce Lewis (ADP: 189), and Adolis Garcia (ADP: 218) all either played through injury, missed time with injury, or were coming off injury last season. I know Lawrence Butler is currently still dealing with his knee issues, and Josh Lowe was sidelined early in spring with an oblique injury, but I can see the case for all of these guys enjoying a much better 2026. The Angels claimed that they held Lowe out of games as a precaution, given his previous injuries, and that he should be back soon. There's even a chance he's not in a strict platoon now that he's not in Tampa Bay. Garcia gets a significant ballpark upgrade moving to Philadelphia, and the lineup around him is explosive, so I really like him at his ADP cost. I find it harder to get behind drafting Jung or Lewis because I'm less convinced that they can stay healthy or that Jung can be the player we thought he was before his years of injury, but I can see taking a gamble on both if they fell in your drafts.

Lastly, we have to acknowledge the mental and motivational side of this game, and it's pretty clear that Luis Robert did not want to be on the White Sox anymore. He gets a massive team context upgrade by moving to the Mets, and his new organization is already rolling out a pretty rigid plan this spring to keep him healthy. Robert hit .298/.352/.456 with five home runs and 11 steals in 31 games after the All-Star break last season, while posting elite exit velocities, so he can still play. He just needs to stay on the field.

Oneil Cruz - OF, Pittsburgh Pirates (ADP: 91)

Listen, I know Cruz crushed people's batting average last year, but I promise you that it's really not that bad. Yes, a .200 average is bad, but if you look under the hood, a lot of his contact metrics are the same as we've seen from him in the past. A 79.1% zone contact rate is essentially his career average and better than what he did in 2024. He actually chased outside of the zone the least he has ever in his career. His 67.8% contact rate overall was better than his career average and better than what he did in 2024. His 13.3% SwStr% is better than his career average and better than what he did in 2024. His bat speed remains elite. His hard-hit rate was 56.6%, which is the best of his career, and his 17.9% barrell rate was also the best of his career. He took more called strikes than he had since 2022, so perhaps he fell behind in the count more often than we're used to seeing, but last season was essentially status quo for Cruz, which means thathe probably could have hit closer to his .233 career average. You could blame a career-low .262 BABIP for that or learning a brand new defensive position. All I know is that Cruz is almost a lock for a 20/20 season and could easily push 25/25 while hitting in an improved Pirates lineup. If he just does that and also hits .230 instead of .200, then you're looking at a valuable fantasy season.

Bryan Reynolds - OF, Pittsburgh Pirates (ADP: 205)

Another bounce-back here for the Pirates. For four years from 2021 to 2024, we got incredibly consistent production from Reynolds. He spiked a huge batting average season in 2021, but was essentially a .270 hitter with 25 home runs and 8-10 steals who put up around 150 Runs+RBI on a mediocre to poor team. All of a sudden, last year, he hit .245/.318/.402 with 16 home runs and his highest strikeout rate ever. Is he washed at just 31 years old? That seems unlikely. His SwStr%, contact rate, zone contact rate, swing rates, and hard-hit rates are all within his career norms. He posted a 10.1% barrel rate and actually increased his bat speed from previous seasons. You could point out that he pulled the ball more than he has since 2021 and lifted it at the lowest rate he ever has in the big leagues, but those would also be minor issues. Now, his fly ball rate did go down as the season went on, so that's something to keep an eye on. There's a chance it was just a correction to combat his struggles, but we can monitor that while also expecting a bounce-back.

Michael Harris II - OF, Atlanta Braves (ADP: 100)

In many ways, Michael Harris III bounced back in the middle of last season already. In 67 games in the second half, he hit .299/.315/.530 with 14 home runs, 33 runs, 42 RBI, and eight steals. That's a pretty solid pace. On the year as a whole, Harris also posted his best zone contact rate ever, his second-best contact rate ever, and career-norm exit velocities. He seemed to trade some line drives for fly balls, but his launch angle and swing path remained the same, so that feels more like a bit of a fluke than a conscious change in approach. Yes, Harris may always be a streaky hitter, but he's also a hitter who makes better-than-average league contact while posting a 10% barrel rate and 20 stolen base upside. I have him down to hit .273 with 22 home runs, 74 runs, 75 RBI, and 18 steals. That's a player I'm targeting in a lot of leagues.

Adley Rutschman - C, Baltimore Orioles (ADP: 148)

I said multiple times last season that I was betting on Adley to figure it out, and he never did. But that doesn't stop me from just proclaiming last year as a fluke. Let's look under the hood for a second. He had a 92% zone contact rate. That's well above league average and the best mark of his career. He had an 86.6% contact rate. That's well above league average and the best mark of his career. He had just a 5.4% swinging strike rate. That's well above league average and the best mark of his career. He was perhaps a bit more passive than we'd like to see, but his swing rate wasn't much different than what we saw from him in 2022 and 2023. His pull rate was in line with what we've always seen from him, and his flyball rate was lower than 2024 but also higher than both 2022 and 2023, so he has succeeded with that batted ball profile. His bat speed increased, his barrel rate was the second highest of his career, and his hard-hit rate was tied for a career-best. None of that sounds like the profile of a hitter having his worst season ever. Perhaps Adley won't ever be more than what we've seen him be in recent seasons, but that's still a guy who should hit .250-.260 with 20 home runs while playing most days for one of the best teams in the AL. That's a good profile for a fantasy catcher.

Marcus Semien - 2B, New York Mets (ADP: 263)

It's important to remember that a bounce-back doesn't always have to mean a player's peak value; it can just be to their previous norm. I don't think Semien is going back to hitting .276, but he's a career .253 hitter, so even getting .240 out of him should make us feel a little better. The bounce back for me is in the power. He had hit at least 23 home runs in four straight seasons and then hit 15 last year. Yet, his barrel rate was the same, his bat speed was the same, and his average exit velocity was the same. His pull rate was down slightly, and his fly ball rate was up, but that doesn't really account for why his HR/FB rate fell from a career 11.5% rate to just 8.5% last year. Semien now is in a slightly better park for right-handed power and in a lineup where he will hit behind Juan Soto, Jorge Polanco, and Luis Robert, which should give him ample RBI opportunities. I think we're looking at another 20+ home run season for Semien with 70+ RBI again as well. I prefer him more as a MIF type, but he'll have value.

Matt McLain - 2B, Cincinnati Reds (ADP: 174)

I created my leaderboard for this article about a week and a half ago and highlighted McLain's name. Then I went to Arizona for MLB spring training and watched him hit two towering home runs in one game, and then watched his draft stock soar. Everybody is expecting a bounce-back from him now, and it's hard to argue against it. The initial reason is obvious. He had a shoulder injury before last season and was clearly not 100% in 2025. Yet, despite that, his max exit velocity was the same as in 2023, his hard-hit rate was about 1.5% lower, and he still sported an 8% barrel rate. His zone contact was around league average, and his SwStr% was just around league average as well. None of that suggests he should have hit .220/.300/.343. I know many people think his 2023 season was a fluke, but I'm not one of them. No, he may not hit .290 again, but I have McLain down to hit .252 with 20 home runs, 67 runs, 67 RBI, and 19 steals. I'm more than happy to have him as my 2B in any league types.

J.T. Realmuto - C, Philadelphia Phillies (ADP: 216)

Realmuto falls into that Marcus Semien camp: a veteran everyone thinks is washed, and I think is just no longer as good as he was at his peak. Last season, Realmuto had a 45.4% hard-hit rate. The league average was 41%. He had a 10.4% SwStr%. The league average was 11%. His EV90, which measures his 90th percentile exit velocity, meaning the average of his top 10% hardest-hit balls, was 105.8 mph. The league average was 105.1 mph. His 9% barrel rate was still strong, his zone contact rate remains elite, and even if his bat speed has decreased a bit, it's still an above-average mark. I still think Realmuto has value. He's no longer a threat to steal 20 bases, but I think he can steal 10 while hitting .260 with 15 home runs in a good lineup. That's still valuable if you wait on catcher.

⚾️ Coming soon: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.

The Long Shot Bounceback Hitters

NameTeamwRC+
Jesús SánchezTOR93.36182
Jorge SolerLAA88.46527
Joc PedersonTEX76.27806
Ryan McMahonNYY86.33603
Austin WellsNYY93.86251
Colton CowserBAL82.55285
Luis García Jr.WSN91.09835
Nolan JonesCLE71.98035
Nick CastellanosSD89.74262
Ke'Bryan HayesCIN64.87872
Cedric MullinsTBR94.13674

I'm not going to cover everybody in this range in detail, but I'll give some brief thoughts below on each one. Think of it as the kind of back-of-the-notecard content you'd jot down to prep for a test.

Jesús Sánchez (ADP: 367) hit .256/.320/.420 in 86 games with the Marlins with 10 home runs before being traded. His EV90 was 108 mph, which is well above the league average, and his hard-hit rate was also above league average. He's now on a much better team in a park that's better for left-handed power. He won't play against left-handed pitching, but he'll hit righties well enough.

Ryan McMahon (ADP: 447) changed his batting stance this offseason, which I covered in a blurb on our website here. He had a really solid 50.5% hard-hit rate last season, and playing at Yankee Stadium for a full year should allow him to push 25 home runs. He doesn't make as much contact as his teammate Austin Wells (ADP: 255), who also appears here, but McMahon consistently makes harder contact. I think they both could hit .230-.240 with 25 home runs in a good lineup, which would make both of them valuable in deeper formats.

I covered Cedric Mullins (ADP: 300) in my Pull Air% article, and there's an argument that Luis Garcia Jr. (ADP: 251) shouldn't even be on here because he hit .252 with 16 home runs and 14 steals, but his wRC+ and offensive value were below average. I still believe he's a plus contact hitter with slightly better than league-average contact quality who should play every day and may be 1B/2B eligible by the middle of May. That has value.

I know you're going to laugh that Nolan Jones is on here, and I'm not sure I believe it, but I wanted to point out why. He had a 46.7% hard-hit rate, which is above league average. He had a 105.2 mph EV90, which is league average. He had a league-average swinging strike rate and an 8.7% barrel rate. His pull rates and flyball rates were back up near what he put up in 2023, but his HR/FB rate was 5.7%, which is well below the 12% league average. I don't know how much he's going to play this season, but everything under the hood says he should have had far better numbers last year.

I think we've let the toxic situation in Philadelphia push us off of Nick Castellanos (ADP: 345) too much. Yes, he's on the downside of his career, and his bat speed is declining, but so much of what we saw last year was in line with who he has always been. His swinging strike rate was lower than it's been since 2019. His zone contact was the best mark since 2019. Same with his overall contact rate. His pull rate was around his career average, as was his fly ball rate. His barrel rate was around 8%, which is below what we're used to seeing from him but not atrocious. I don't see him getting back to peak value, but I do see him hitting .250-.260 with 20 home runs and hitting behind a strong group of guys like Jackson Merrill, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Manny Machado, which should open up plenty of RBI opportunities.

Mets Morning News: USA tops Mexico in WBC thriller

HOUSTON, TEXAS - MARCH 09: Paul Skenes #30 of the United States reacts during the first inning against Mexico during the 2026 World Baseball Classic game between Mexico and the United States at Daikin Park on March 09, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Kenneth Richmond/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Meet the Mets

The Mets blanked the Marlins 9-0 behind Zach Thornton’s three scoreless innings and Carson Benge’s three runs batted in.

With Juan Soto suiting up in the WBC, A.J. Ewing is seizing his moment at Mets’ camp this spring.

Soto did some dugout pushups after hitting balls to the warning track twice.

David Stearns spoke with the media and discussed Benge and the ‘difficult decision’ facing the Mets heading into Opening Day.

Benge and Ewing starting together this spring is giving the Mets a glimpse into their future.

Tim Britton highlighted some spring standouts on This Week in Mets.

The Mets optioned Nick Morabito and Jonathan Pintaro to Triple-A and reassigned Jack Wenninger to Minor League camp.

David Wright was present at Mets’ camp and said that he has every Hall of Fame ballot he’s survived framed in his house.

Wright also mentioned that Bo Bichette proactively reached out to The Captain to see if he would visit camp, and Wright said he’s excited to work with and mentor the team’s new third baseman.

Joel Sherman explained how Bichette is the key behind the Mets’ radically revamped defense.

Laura Albanese examined four under-the-radar Mets prospects who are having a big impact in spring training.

Albanese also argued that the Mets’ offseason moves, which were unpopular at the time, are starting to make sense.

Around the National League East

The Phillies and Jesús Luzardo agreed to a five-year, $135 million contract extension.

Braves’ left-hander Joey Wentz will miss the 2026 season after suffering a torn ACL.

Buster Olney explored the next steps for the Braves following the Jurickson Profar season-long suspension.

Around Major League Baseball

Team USA defeated Mexico 5-3 in a thrilling game behind big games from Paul Skenes and Aaron Judge.

Paul Skenes and Griffin Jax arranged for Air Force One cadets to watch yesterday’s USA-Mexico game.

Puerto Rico topped Cuba 4-1 and got to celebrate advancing to the quarterfinals in front of their home fans.

Korea advanced to the next round of the WBC by scoring exactly enough runs to break a three-way tie with Australia and Chinese Taipei based on number of runs scored and defensive outs collected.

The Dominican Republic thrashed Israel 10-1 to punch their ticket to the WBC quarterfinals, as Fernando Tatis Jr. hit a grand slam and punctuated it with a big bat flip.

Ronald Acuña Jr. played the role of hero for Venezuela, who beat Nicaragua 4-0 to remain undefeated.

Colombia escaped the WBC with a 4-3 win over Panama to avoid going winless in the tournament.

Similarly, Great Britain topped Brazil 8-1 to win their first (and only) in the tournament. Brazil ended the tournament without a victory.

Here are the updated WBC odds, with Team USA still favored over Japan and the Dominican Republic.

Team Australia thanked their fans following their WBC exit.

Paul Skenes wrote a letter to all the little leaguers ahead and talked about the honor of starting a WBC game for Team USA.

After pitching three innings in USA’s win over Great Britain, Tarik Skubal will depart the WBC to return to Tigers’ camp.

Fabian Ardaya shared the stories of American-born players representing their heritage in this year’s WBC.

Paolo Espino, who debuted in the first WBC in 2006 as a 19-year-old, left the mound yesterday (20 years later) after his final appearance for Team Panama.

ESPN shared updated World Series odds halfway through spring training.

Will Leitch looked at the top contenders for all of the major awards in each division.

There are still some intriguing position battles to keep an eye on this spring.

Jorge Castillo looked at what’s next for six make-or-break Yankees.

J.C. Escarra got a brand new tattoo to commemorate the beginning of his improbable story with the Yankees.

The Giants are bringing back Old Friend Joey Lucchesi on a minor league deal.

Kevin McGonigle, the Tigers’ top prospect and No. 2 prospect in MLB, continued his great spring with his first Grapefruit League home run.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

I previewed Nolan McLean’s 2026 season.

This Date in Mets History

The Mets made their spring training debut (an 8-0 loss to the Cardinals) on this date in 1962.

An update on MLB teams’ local TV coverage for 2026

With the bankruptcy and complete collapse of Main Street Sports, which had the local TV rights for nine MLB teams (and previously others who had left the group), the local TV landscape for baseball is changing again for 2026.

In past editions of this article, I’ve been able to cobble together what each team was scheduled to make from their local broadcast arrangements. But now, with many RSNs gone and the concept of “rights fees” fading away, that’s not really even possible anymore. In general, though, teams that have gone the streaming way have had their TV revenue cut, sometimes by as much as 25 percent.

Here’s what we do know.

By division, then, here’s how each MLB team will carry local broadcasts this year.

NL East

Braves: The Braves, one of the teams affected by the Main Street collapse, have created their own network called BravesVision, separate from the channels that will be operated by MLB. It will be available via streaming, and also in-market via cable and satellite. Here’s how that will all work.

Marlins: The Marlins were another team in the Main Street group. They have created their own network called Marlins.TV. As in the Atlanta market territory, they’ll be available on cable/satellite, though likely with an additional fee. Details here.

Mets: The Mets own SNY, their own regional sports network. More than 100 Mets games will be on this RSN, with others on WPIX-11, a local OTA channel in New York. More details here.

Nationals: The Nationals will stream on Nationals.TV, similar to the Braves and Marlins deals, and have cable/satellite access in the local market. More about Nats local TV here.

Phillies: Phillies games are on the regional sports network NBC Sports Philadelphia, with some on the OTA channel NBC-10. There’s also an in-market streaming option; more details here.

NL Central

Brewers: The Brewers were also part of the Main Street collapse. They have created Brewers.TV, a streaming option, as well as in-market cable/satellite access. More details here.

Cardinals: The Cardinals are another of the nine teams affected by the Main Street Sports issue. They will start Cardinals.TV for streaming, and have games available in-market via cable and satellite. More here.

Cubs: The Cubs will continue on Marquee Sports Network. Once the regular season begins, about 145 Cubs games will be on Marquee, with the rest on national channels Fox, ESPN, NBC/Peacock and Apple. Marquee offers in-market streaming; details here.

Pirates: The Pirates have started their own RSN, SportsNet Pittsburgh, which they are sharing with the Penguins. As with many other teams, local cable/satellite access is available, along with a streaming option. Details here.

Reds: The Reds have begun Reds.TV, a similar option to the other teams noted above. Streaming, satellite and cable are all available in the local market. Ten games will be on OTA broadcast channel WXIX Fox-19.More here.

NL West

Diamondbacks: The D-backs began local TV a year ago under the auspices of MLB and that will continue in 2026, with the usual streaming option as well as cable/satellite. They will also carry 11 games on OTA channel known as 12 News.

Dodgers:About 145 Dodgers games will be on their owned local RSN, SportsNet LA. This deal, of course, is how the Dodgers can blow away all the other teams’ budgets — they’re getting about $334 million a year from this channel.

Giants: Most Giants games will be on NBC Sports Bay Area, as they have been for years. They are also offering Giants.TV for in-market streaming. Details here.

Padres: The Padres were the very first team to go from a RSN to having games produced by MLB. That will continue this year with Padres.TV. The Padres will also show 10 games on local OTA channels.

Rockies: MLB is producing Rockies games again this year over Rockies.TV. Details here.

AL East

Blue Jays: The team is owned by Rogers Communications, the largest cable operator in Canada. They’ll have their usual selection of games on Rogers systems throughout Canada.

Orioles: With the Nationals’ departure from MASN, the O’s have this RSN to themselves. They’ll also have a streaming option.

Rays: The Rays are another team affected in the Main Street collapse. They’ll have Rays.TV produced by MLB, on local cable and satellite, with a streaming option. More here.

Red Sox: The Red Sox have an ownership interest in NESN, their regional sports network. Most Red Sox games will be carried on that channel. Here are details on NESN’s in-market streaming.

Yankees: Most Yankees games are on their owned YES Network, but beyond that… it’s complicated:

Under current blackout rules, in-market Yanks fans cannot use MLB.TV to stream regional broadcasts. The lucky ones with YES covered in their TV plans are in the clear, but those without YES need a separate direct-to-consumer service called Gotham Sports App. The costly subscription has been a contentious issue within the fan base, and Gotham recently announced slight price reductions. As it stands, users can either sign up for a specific Yankees pass or go for the full product, which includes MSG Network (NBA’s New York Knicks, NHL’s New York Rangers and others).

AL Central

Guardians: The Guardians have been produced by MLB Local Media for a couple of years and that will return in 2026, on regional cable/satellite, and via streaming. Details here.

Royals: As is the case for many teams, the Royals are produced by MLB Local Media and have cable/satellite and streaming options. More here, and also 10 games will be simulcast on a local OTA station, KCTV5.

Tigers: The Tigers, after the Main Street collapse, created Detroit SportsNet, which will also carry Red Wings games. The usual cable/satellite opportunity will exist in Michigan, as well as streaming. More details here.

Twins: The Twins switched to streaming last year and Twins.TV is back for 2026, as with many other teams, available on cable/satellite in the Twins market territory. Details here.

White Sox: The Sox co-own Chicago Sports Network (CHSN) with the Bulls and Blackhawks. They stream in-market via their own app.

AL West

Angels: The Angels always seem to like to do things differently. They were one of the nine teams affected by the Main Street collapse. But instead of going to streaming, the Angels simply bought their RSN, and so their games will continue to be on FanDuel Sports Network West. The team bought the name as well as the channel. The league will still run Angels.TV for in-market streaming.

Astros: The Astros have created their own RSN, Space City Home Network, in partnership with the NBA’s Rockets. There’s also a streaming option called SCHN+. Details here.

Athletics: A’s games are produced by NBC Sports California (which is a separate channel from the Giants’ NBC Sports Bay Area). There’s also a streaming option.

Mariners: Mariners.TV will carry the team’s games regionally on cable/satellite and via streaming. More here.

Rangers: The Rangers own their own channel, Rangers Sports Network. As with most teams, they have cable/satellite access and in-market streaming. More here.

As you can see, Commissioner Rob Manfred is getting close to his dream of having MLB Local Media control all teams’ TV rights, so he can sell local and national rights as one package. Given the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Cubs and others having large RSN investments, though, that dream might wind up being deferred.