Welcome back to the 2025-26 edition of Smash or Pass, in which we examine potential free agent and trade targets to determine whether the Red Sox should pursue them and what it would take to land them. Today we look at a Gold Glove infielder.
Who is he and where does he come from?
He’s Nico Hoerner and he’s currently a member of the Chicago Cubs, a team that, as Dan Secatore put it, just handed out a bad contract, a notion I agree with, albeit with sadness for the loss of a clubhouse leader. The 2018 first round draft pick (two picks ahead of Triston Casas) has been on a Major League roster since 2019 (two years longer than Casas, which isn’t an indictment on Triston as Hoerner is almost three years older). He’s primarily played at second base, logging 500 games at the position, though he’s dabbled at short, too, having played 210 games at that position.
Is he any good?
If you lamented Bregman’s departure from the team on account of his defensive ability, then you might like Nico Hoerner. In fact, he is the reigning Gold Glover at second, having also won in 2023, and his 2025 Outs Above Average (15) placed him in the top 98th percentile in the league. If you’re worried about the possibility of Ceddanne “Nuff Cedd” Rafaela covering second base despite being a world class center fielder, the acquisition of Hoerner will make you breathe easier.
Plus, Hoerner, who turns 29 in May, isn’t too bad at the plate either. He does lack power, mashing just seven home runs. But, I’m willing to forgive that since he gets on base to the tune of a .345 OBP and barely ever strikes out, as his career best strikeout percentage of 7.6% in 2025 also ranked in the top 98th percentile. Oh, and he stole twenty nine bags, so he’s quick, too. So, yes, Hoerner is really good. Which is precisely why he’s the valued starter on another team.
TLDR; just give me his 2025 stats.
.297/.345/.394, 7 HR, 61 RBI, 49 K, 39 BB, 29 SB, 4 FE in 156 games
Why would he be a good fit on the 2025 Red Sox?
I need to again state that, on a team that has been in shambles defensively for the better part of a decade and which has a stable infielder departing, Hoerner had ZERO throwing errors and just four fielding errors. He also missed just six games. That’s some stability that the team hasn’t seen in the infield in some time. Hoerner’s fWAR last year was 4.8. I’m in no way comparing Hoerner to Pedroia (unless I am?) but Pedroia’s average fWAR per 162 games played in his career was 5.6. To be that close to a just-shy-of-a-hall-of-famer’s numbers is a very, very good thing. And, at his worst, Hoerner in 2024 still hit .273 while dealing with a hand injury
Why wouldn’t he be a good fit on the Red Sox?
There are a few reasons, the first of which is the question of what the Cubs would want for Hoerner. They would certainly try for a high-end prospect like Tolle or Early, some other considerable names like Arias or Romero, and presumably one or two other lottery ticket prospects. Now, the Red Sox have enough depth enough to absorb dealing these names for a possible All-Star. But, it may scare off the measured Craig Breslow a bit.
Moreover, Hoerner will be a free agent next season. Bo Bichette’s 3 year, $126 million deal with the New York Mets drives up the price tag for all-star caliber infielders. Hoerner avoided arbitration with Chicago in 2024 by signing a 3 year, $35 million deal, but that was a Gold Glove and five points on the strikeout percentage ago. He will command a deal closer to Bichette next offsesaon (humor me with no lockout discussion, please.)
Plus, the Red Sox may simply want to see what they have in Marcelo Mayer at another position, and the outfield is already backlogged enough that we may see Rafaela or even Kristian Campbell (left field chatter aside) in the middle of the diamond at some point (or maybe both if, heaven forbid, the infield has any health issues). And, if you’re looking for a specific reason why trading assets would be tricky, it’s that Hoerner lacks power; Savant consistently has him in the lowest tenth percentile in barrel percentage and hard hit percentage. If you’re looking for more power after the Bregman departure, you may not want to bring in a guy who only hit 36 home runs in a six (or 6.014) year career.
Show me a cool highlight.
Here he is outsmarting the White Sox twice in about five seconds on an infield fly rule to turn two by letting a baseball drop to the ground. There’s also the fact that he has super quick reflexes with that arm.
Smash or pass?
I’m smashing, but I think he’ll start the season as a Chicago Cub rather than get dealt to a team that saddles up the assets to acquire him and is prepared to extend Hoerner in short order. The Cubs are in “win now” mode and so they may see how the season goes with a stacked infield full of studs. This Red Sox offseason, the Ranger Suarez signing aside, has seen a return to the “interest kings” mode of operations, as the team has been tied to a plethora of notable names, only to see them sign with someone else. But the 2026 second base position largely remains a question mark, as it would have even with Alex Bregman returning. For this reason, it’d suit the Red Sox well to throw a little bit of caution to the wind and get a proven All-Star caliber player to join their ranks. Whether they will? Well, that’s a different story… no pun intended.
