The Yankees won a baseball game last night, something we haven’t been able to say in more than a week. They now have a golden opportunity to win two games in a row, which isn’t quite a winning streak by my definition but it’s almost a winning streak.
Rookie Brendan Beck gets the call in a spot start, the first of his MLB career. He had one appearance as a bulk man back in May that didn’t go great, but his numbers at Triple-A Scranton are pretty solid. In 88.1 innings this year he’s struck out 26 percent of batters faced, and his FIP is close enough to the ERA that I’m not terrified by the idea of the former second-round pick getting a start. Still, he is not ready for full-time work as a 26-man starter, so hopefully the Yankees can keep some semblance of offense going.
The Twins send Zebby Matthews to the hill in response. Zebby’s had an interesting 2026, with a career low walk rate matched with a career low strikeout rate. He’s rode the MSP METRO several times between the majors and the famous St. Paul Saints for most of his time in the bigs, and the big key for him sticking with the MLB squad is keeping the ball in the yard. He is top, or rather bottom, 20 in baseball in home run rate, so while he’s lucky he’s missing Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, there are still guys in this lineup that can go deep.
The Yankees return most of the starting lineup from yesterday, although Anthony Volpe batting fifth makes me rather nervous. Max Schuemann is in center after Spencer Jones’ demotion as the Yanks play it safe with Trent Grisham at DH, and Ali Sánchez catches and bats ninth.
How to watch
Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
First pitch: 1:35 pm ET
TV broadcast: YES, TwinsTV
Radio broadcast: WFAN 660/101.9 FM, WADO 1280 (NYY) | TIBN, WCCO 830, The Wolf 102.9 FM (MIN)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JUNE 28: Kyle Schwarber #12 of the Philadelphia Phillies watches the flight of his seventh inning two run home run against the New York Mets at Citi Field on June 28, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) | Getty Images
As the United States celebrates its 250th birthday, players representing the city where much of it began will arrive in Kansas City to play a three-game set. Of note to many fans will be the fact that the Phillies started the season 9-19. At that point, they fired their manager, Rob Thomson. They then hired the GM’s dad, Don Mattingly, and the Phillies have gone 40-20 since and are now firmly in the playoff picture in the National League. I, and many others, would argue that firing their manager probably had little to nothing to do with the turnaround of a very talented team. But its impossible to prove that, so it will probably dominate a lot of the thinking this weekend.
Since the league introduced the balanced schedules prior to the 2023 season, the Phillies have taken two out of three in every series the teams have played.
Philadelphia Phillies (49-39) vs. Kansas City Royals (35-53) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Kyle Schwarber leads all of baseball with 30 home runs. Bryce Harper recently hit for the cycle and is tied for ninth in MLB in home runs with 20. Brandon Marsh has always been better than you probably realized, but he’s having a career year for the Phillies in 2026. On the other side, aging superstars J.T. Realmuto and Trea Turner have both fallen off quite a bit this year, and while rookie Justin Crawford began the season on fire, he had an abysmal May, slashing .195/.253/.312. He bounced back some in June, but still hasn’t become the star Phillies fans were hoping he could be. The Phillies outbid the Royals for Adolis García last offseason, but he was not good, and he’s now out for the remainder of the season with an injury.
Going purely by the pitching matchups, the Royals are about to get worked this weekend. Jesús Luzardo has been more of the same for Philadelphia after they acquired him from the Marlins last year and gave him a contract extension prior to this season.
Aaron Nola hasn’t been the ace he once was for the Phillies, but he’s still been lightyears better than Luinder Avila, the Royals’ planned starter.
Cristopher Sánchez is one of the frontrunners for the NL Cy Young, along with Jacob Misiorowski. Add in that he’s a left-hander, and I’ll be on perfect game watch that day.
The Phillies have one of the best bullpens in baseball, led by superstar closer Jhoan Duran, who is having a career year in his age-28 season. Their next best reliever will be familiar to many Royals fans; it’s Jonathan Bowlan. Bowlan never could seem to get a foothold in the Royals’ bullpen last year despite consistently pitching quality innings. He has instead flourished in the Phillies’ pen after being dealt for Matt Strahm. Their big offseason acquisition, Brad Keller, hasn’t been as good as they had hoped, but he’s also not sinking them. Lefty José Alvarado has an atrocious 6.10 ERA but a 3.24 FIP that suggests he’s been quite unlucky.
I don’t have particularly high hopes for the Royals in this series, but hopefully Jac Caglianone, Bobby Witt Jr., and Carter Jensen can put on a fireworks show for the Royals faithful during their final home series before the All-Star Break.
May 1, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; Kansas City Royals relief pitcher Matt Strahm (25) pitches to the Seattle Mariners during the eighth inning at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images
After another World Cup-induced Friday off-day, the Phillies will take on the Kansas City Royals in a rare Saturday to Monday series. The Phillies and Royals have some history together, as they squared off in the 1980 World Series. (The Phillies won.) It seems unlikely that there will be a rematch in the 2026 World Series because the Royals are mired in last place with the fewest wins in the American League.
Opposition research: Matt Strahm
The Phillies’ offseason moves haven’t all worked out, but they certainly seemed to have gotten rid of Matt Strahm at the right time. After an All-Star campaign in 2024, Strahm’s effectiveness slipped a bit last year. The Phillies clearly didn’t think he was trending in the correct direction, as they traded him to the Royals in exchange for Jonathan Bowlan.
Bowlan has shown some promise, although there’s still too much inconsistency there. As for Strahm, despite the Phillies being lacking in effective lefthanded relievers, it doesn’t seem like having Strahm around would have made the situation better.
Strahm’s strikeout numbers have plummeted this season, and probably not coincidentally, he’s allowing far more baserunners. He had a streak in June where he gave up runs in six consecutive appearances, with the nadir coming on June 19 when he allowed three runs in 0.2 inning.
Strahm may have stabilized things a bit and he hasn’t given up a run in his last five outings. However, with only two strikeouts across those five innings, it isn’t clear how sustainable that will be. The Phillies will likely be looking to trade for a lefty reliever at the deadline, but my hope is that they look elsewhere.
Hating on the Royals
Three years after winning the 2015 World Series, the Royals were a 104-loss team. Come 2024, it looked like they had successfully rebuilt from that downturn, when they won 86 games and made the playoffs behind an MVP runner-up finish by Bobby Witt, Jr.
Two years later, the rebuild appears to have stalled. Witt is still very good, but the rest of the team is not. Key players have either regressed, gotten hurt, or both. They’ll be lucky to avoid their fourth 100+ loss season in the last ten years. A little over a week ago, they lost by a score of 22-1.
Of course, losing should be a comfortable feeling for Royals fans, since the team has a grand history of not making the playoffs. They had a nice little run with George Brett in the late 70’s and early 80’s, but since winning the 1985 World Series, they’ve made the playoffs just three times.
You’d think that the expanded playoff field would have made it easier for the Royals, but even letting more teams in hasn’t done much to help the Royals. In that time, the Royals have more than twice as many 100+ loss seasons as they do playoff appearances.
At this point I’m rooting for the Royals to lose 100.. What a pathetic organization fueled by 2-3 miracle seasons. Thank god for the World Cup
The fans don’t even have the Chiefs to console them this year as the city’s football team missed the playoffs last season.
Trivia
Last week’s answer: When the Phillies crushed the Mets at Citi Field on September 20, 2024, Alec Bohm had four hits and four RBIs. CarterAndCo got it right.
This week’s question: In the decisive game six of the 1980 World Series what Phillie recorded three hits?
Additional thought about the series
Sunday’s game is on Peacock and boy did they get themselves a good pitching matchup with Aaron Nola (6.04 ERA) going against Luinder Avila (5.40 ERA).
As for the rest of the series, the Royals have a mediocre lineup and a bad pitching staff. Their best starter is Michael Wacha, and it feels like a good rule of thumb is: If Michael Wacha is your best pitcher, you’re probably not making the playoffs. Kyle Schwarber will likely be very excited to see him though.
Phillies Stats against Kansas City Royals RHP Michael Wacha:
Schwarber 7 for 22, 4 HR Turner 2 for 5, 1 HR Harper 7 for 22 Realmuto 1 for 9 Bohm 1 for 8 Marsh 1 for 7 Stott 2 for 5 Sosa 1 for 2 Hill 0 for 2 pic.twitter.com/7pUmFXuj3a
Jul 3, 2026; Bronx, New York, USA; General view of Yankee Stadium as fireworks explode after a game between the New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images
First Pitch: 12:35 pm CDT TV: Twins.TV Radio: TIBN / WCCO 830 / The Wolf 102.9 FM / Audacy
It seems the recent playbook of Twins v Yankees has involved some level of delusional, early optimism — Kody Clemens’ first-inning homer last night might have set some sort of alternate-reality stage, where the Twins come out guns-a-blazin’ and show the Yanks what’s what. Instead, they gave the lead right back, and though they stayed competitive throughout, including a nail-biting eighth-inning rally, they enter Saturday’s game down 1-0 in the series.
A late announcement will see Game Two handled for New York by one Brendan Beck, who makes his first big-league start today and only his second MLB appearance, replacing a late-scratch Carlos Rodon, who instead hits the IL with elbow inflammation. Beck went three innings in relief in his only other major-league game, but started last Saturday in the minors and could be asked to give it everything he’s got this afternoon.
Beck features a fastball/slider mix which he pairs with the occasional curve and a couple of other surprises that he might throw a couple times a game.
For Minnesota, it’s Zebby Matthews, who has suddenly become a workhorse, tossing seven innings in three of his last five starts. Outside of a clunker in Detroit, Matthews has been wonderful recently; despite career-low strikeout numbers, he’s pitching to his best overall stats in parts of three major-league seasons, mostly on the back of dramatically improved control and breaking numbers.
Notably, Byron Buxton has returned to the lineup, playing center field.
TORONTO, ON - JUNE 26: Texas Rangers Outfielder Brandon Nimmo (24) celebrates after scoring a run during the MLB regular season game between the Texas Rangers and the Toronto Blue Jays on June 26, 2026, at Rogers Centre in Toronto, ON, Canada. (Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Texas Rangers lineup for July 4, 2026 against the Detroit Tigers: starting pitchers are Cal Quantrill for the Rangers and Jack Flaherty for the Tigers:
After the rare Friday scheduled off day, the Rangers return to action this afternoon in game two of their series against the Tigers. Brandon Nimmo is back in the lineup after missing the previous four games with a sprained A/C joint. Jake Burger is getting the day off.
The lineup:
Pederson — DH
Smith — 1B
Jung — 3B
Nimmo — RF
Osuna — LF
Duran — SS
Carter — CF
Diaz — C
Lopez — 2B
3:05 p.m. Central start time. Rangers are +105 underdogs.
Yankees right-handed pitching prospect Carlos Lagrange will not throw for approximately six weeks after suffering a capsular sprain in his throwing shoulder, the team announced on Friday, July 3.
Initially, the organization's plan for Lagrange was to convert him from a starter into a reliever, and have the hard-throwing strikeout machine join manager Aaron Boone's big-league roster at some point in 2026.
However, with the Yankees bullpen continuing to struggle - particularly true for right-handers Camilo Doval and Tim Hill - amidst a 13-15 record since the start of June, many were been hoping that Lagrange could offer a boost in that department sooner rather than later.
Now, the anticipated debut for the highly rated prospect, who has struck out 83 batters in 63.1 innings at Triple-A this season, will come after the MLB trade deadline (Monday, August 3 at 6:00 p.m.) at earliest.
It will be interesting to see how Lagrange's long-term injury factors into the plans of Yankees general manager and senior vice president Brian Cashman, who will be doing all he can to build a bullpen which can bring a 28th World Series title back to the Bronx come this fall.
The red-hot Los Angeles Dodgers go for their seventh win in their last eight games as they host the San Diego Padres tonight.
With Los Angeles heavily juiced at -233 on the moneyline, my Padres vs. Dodgers predictions are targeting the Boys in Blue on the run line.
Read on for my full MLB picks for Saturday, July 4.
Who will win Padres vs Dodgers tonight: Dodgers -1.5 (-116)
The Los Angeles Dodgers have a massive starting pitching advantage. Yoshinobu Yamamoto will leverage his patented splitter against a San Diego Padres lineup that struggles against the offering, posting the fourth-lowest runs above average (-7.1).
Griffin Canning issues too many free passes (13.3% walk rate) and allows loud contact (third percentile hard-hit rate), and he should get battered by a Dodgers lineup with the second-best barrel rate (9.4%).
L.A. has won 10 of Yamamoto’s 15 starts and should do so comfortably here, so I’d play the run line up to -125.
COVERS INTEL:Griffin Canning struggles mightily against left-handed hitters (.312/.398/.578), and L.A. has nine hitters with a wRC+ over 115 against right-handed pitchers.
Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-104)
L.A. has played Under in nine of Yamamoto’s last 14 starts, so I’m riding the trend. He limits walks (5.1% walk rate), which is crucial against a Padres lineup that’s walked more than anyone else against RHP in the last 14 days.
Canning will struggle, but manager Craig Stammen can go to his well-rested bullpen early. Mason Miller hasn’t thrown since Monday, so he’ll likely make an appearance and influence the total.
The Padres have gone Under in seven of Canning’s 11 appearances despite his inconsistency, largely because the hook is quick and the bullpen behind him has been effective (3.71 SIERA).
JD Yonke's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 25-24, -2.85 units
Over/Under bets: 33-17, +15.23 units
Padres vs Dodgers weather
Temperatures at Chavez Ravine are expected to be in the mid-70s, with light winds around 5-10 mph.
Padres vs Dodgers odds
Moneyline: Padres +218 | Dodgers -242
Run line: Padres +1.5 (+105) | Dodgers -1.5 (-116)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-118) | Under 8.5 (-104)
Padres vs Dodgers trend
Los Angeles has covered the run line in five of Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s last six starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers.
How to watch Padres vs Dodgers and game info
Location
Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Date
Saturday, July 4, 2026
First pitch
10:10 p.m. ET
TV
Peacock
Padres starting pitcher
Griffin Canning (1-5, 7.09 ERA)
Dodgers starting pitcher
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (8-5, 2.67 ERA)
Padres vs Dodgers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
The Texas Rangers are 7-1 in their last eight games and look to stay hot when they host the Detroit Tigers at Globe Life Field on the Fourth of July.
Texas comes into the game as the slight underdog at -100, but today’s pitching matchup will give them the edge over Detroit (-104).
I’ll break down that down in my free MLB picks & Tigers vs. Rangers predictions for Saturday.
Who will win Tigers vs Rangers today: Rangers (-103)
The Texas Rangers have been on fire over the past 10 days, ranking fifth in BABIP (.330), seventh in wRC+ (132), and averaging 5.6 runs per game during that stretch.
Detroit Tigers starter Jack Flaherty has been poor this season, with a 4.97 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, while he sits in the 14th percentile in pitching run value.
Flaherty’s breaking pitches have given him issues – particularly his slider, which he throws 25% of the time. The Rangers have feasted on the slider vs. righties with a .314 BABIP (2nd) and 56.1 wRC (7th).
Give me Texas up to -110.
COVERS INTEL:Rangers starter Kumar Rocker ranks in the 96th percentile in breaking ball run value, with 51 Ks via his slider (8th). The Tigers have the fourth-worst hard hit % vs. that pitch from righties (31.1%).
Tigers vs Rangers Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-121)
These teams have not been offensive powerhouses this season, but they are right now, both averaging over 5.5 runs per game since June 25.
The Rangers have six players hitting .350 or better over the past seven days, while Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson are both sitting at an OPS above 1.000 for the Tigers this week.
The Over has cashed in six of Texas’ last eight and five of Detroit’s last six.
Chris Faria's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 5-2, +2.18 units
Over/Under bets: 2-5, -2.9 units
Tigers vs Rangers weather
Tigers vs Rangers odds
Moneyline: Detroit -104 | Texas -100
Run line: Detroit -1.5 (+156) | Texas +1.5 (-163)
Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-117) | Under 7.5 (+108)
Tigers vs Rangers trend
The Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in their last seven games (+7.10 Units / 90% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Rangers.
How to watch Tigers vs Rangers and game info
Location
Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX
Date
Saturday, July 4, 2026
First pitch
4:05 p.m. ET
TV
DSN, RSN
Tigers starting pitcher
Jack Flaherty (1-8, 4.97 ERA)
Rangers starting pitcher
Kumar Rocker (2-6, 3.83 ERA)
Tigers vs Rangers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Look for the Milwaukee Brewers star to make his way around the bases tonight. Play to -135.
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: BREW, AIRD
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-142)
Griffin Canning has no answers for left-handed hitters. He has allowed a whopping .312 average against lefties while ranking in the 16th percentile in xwOBA.
Freddie Freeman is a prime candidate to take advantage. The veteran lefty has recorded multiple H+R+R in 67.6% of his games when facing a starter who sits in the 50th percentile or worse in both xwOBA and OBP.
That number climbs to 72% in winning efforts, which is certainly noteworthy with the Los Angeles Dodgers -250 favorites to come out on top.
Back Freeman to -160.
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: SDPA, SNLA
J.P. Crawford Over 0.5 walks (+128)
Shane Bieber is struggling with control vs. left-handed hitters. He is striking them out at the exact same rate as he’s walking them (15.8%), which is not a recipe for success.
Since the beginning of the 2025 campaign, J.P. Crawford has played 21 games against starting pitchers ranking in the 30th percentile or worse in K% and BB% against left-handed hitters.
Crawford drew at least one free pass in 15 of them, including four of five this year. Crawford has walked eight times in just five such matchups this season.
I see a lot of value. Play to -115.
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Sportsnet, SEAM
Todd Cordell's 2026 Transparency Record
Prop picks: 2-1, +1.0 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 30: Manager Mark Kotsay #7 of the Athletics takes the ball from pitcher Jeffrey Springs #59 taking Springs out of the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the top of the six inning of a major league baseball game at Sutter Health Park on June 30, 2026 in Sacramento, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Happy birthday, America. I tried to get you a tie, but then the Marlins scored 7 extras runs. Tonight you will be treated to lots of fireworks, and I don’t mean from Jeffrey Springs pitching.
But enough about how wretchedly the A’s play at home — I have it on good authority (ok fine, Lawrence Butler) that it’s the ballpark’s fault and not the fault of the players who can’t match what opposing players can accomplish. Funny how it wasn’t “the ballpark’s fault” when the A’s were forced to play their home games in a venue that often had 90% of its seats empty and sometimes had sewage seeping into the clubhouse, yet the A’s often had one of the best home records in MLB.
Anyhoo, when I say “enough about how wretchedly the A’s play at home” I mean I’m going to continue talking about it for a while, because let’s face it: if the A’s could just have matched their 22-21 road record with similar “just mediocrity” at home, they would be sitting tied for 1st place right now.
Unfortunately, mediocrity is currently a pipe dream for the Sacrammerlin A’s. Here are some stats you might find interesting, and by interesting I mean they might make you want to put a firecracker up a defenseless kitten’s ass and walk away.
It Can’t Be True But It Is Fact #1: The A’s home ERA this season is now 6.25. This is partly due to the fact that their ERA in the top of the 1st inning this season is 8,423.65 (give or take).
It Can’t Be True But It Is Fact #2: A’s pitchers, at home, have served up 86 HRs in 45 games. That means that any home game in which the staff gives up 2 HRs is called “just another day at the office”.
It Can’t Be True But It Is Fact #3: Jeffrey Springs has thrown 54.1 IP at home this season and he has coughed up 16 HRs. This is an even more impressive pace of 1 HR every 3.4 innings. It only seems like it’s 3.4 HRs every 1 inning.
It Can’t Be True But It Is Fact #4: The A’s are 15-24 at Sutter Health Park, which is a robust .385 winning percentage.
It Can’t Be True But It Is Fact #5: In their 39 games at Sutter Health Park, the A’s have given up 8 runs or more in 14 of them. That’s about 36% of their games.
It Can’t Be True But It Is Fact #6: It’s not enough just to lead the majors in HRs allowed at home, the A’s also lead all of MLB in issuing walks at home: 199 walks, 10 more than their closest competitor (Houston) and more than twice as many as the Rays (98).
I would go on but the last thing I’d want to do is belabor the point. What I will say is this: until the A’s figure out a way to play halfway decently at home, rather than playing horrifically and then blaming the situation, the team cannot compete for anything because they play half their games at home. Simple math tells you that you can’t win enough games if you give up “6 and a quarter runs” half the time and can’t outscore the other team even 40% of the time in half your games.
To make that work the A’s would have to be true road warriors, dominating and winning about 2/3 of the time. In reality the A’s are hitting, as a team, .229/.304/.359 on the road and that’s not likely to win you 2/3 of your games.
So it’s not even a matter of the A’s now being too buried to contend. They are 6 games under .500, which means if they win 6 in a row — and any team can in a week where they suddenly get hot — they would be at .500 in a division and league where .500 gives you as good odds as anyone to make the post-season.
The A’s record, and the standings, are not the problem. The complete and utter inability to pitch or play well at home is the back breaker. And it shows no signs of slowing down on what is currently a 1-3 homestand in which the A’s have served up another 31 runs — 9 or more runs in 3 of the 4 games.
Enjoy tonight’s fireworks show! And then try to enjoy the post-game festivities as well.
BIRMINGHAM, AL - APRIL 24: Jordan Groshans #15 of the Columbus Clingstones is congratulated after hitting a home run during the game between the Columbus Clingstones and the Birmingham Barons at Regions Field on Friday, April 24, 2026 in Birmingham, Alabama. (Photo by Hannah Bachman/Minor League Baseball via Getty Images)
It was a bit of a weird day down on the farm as one team’s game got cut short due to technical difficulties, but there was plenty of action to go around. Let’s get into it.
All in all, there wasn’t much to write home about with regards to Gwinnett on Friday as the Stripers were shutout and were held to just two hits in the process.
The lone two hits in this one came off the bat of Jose Azocar and Jair Camargo — both of whom tallied a single each in this one — while the Stripers were held off the scoreboard.
Austin Gomber got the start and while he wasn’t bad — giving up three runs across five innings — the lack of offense he got proved to be the difference-maker.
Blake Burkhalter did make an appearance in this one, tossing one scoreless inning despite giving up three hits in the frame to keep his ERA at 0.00.
The offense will get most of the credit in this one, but the pitching staff also stepped up and showed out as Columbus dominated Tennessee on Friday by a 9-1 final.
Pacing the offense was Jordan Groshans, who homered not once, but twice in this one. The designated hitter’s first long ball came in the top of the sixth as he launched a solo shot — hit 14th of the season — to extend the Clingstones’ lead to 3-0 on the night.
But Groshans wasn’t done there, as he laced yet another solo shot in the eight inning to make it a 5-0 game in this one.
— Columbus Clingstones (@GoClingstones) July 4, 2026
Also participating in the home run fun was Drew Compton — who also tripled on Friday — who has been on a bit of a hot streak recently. It’s a short hot streak, but over the past three games, Compton has tallied 13 total bases, including two triples and a homer.
Meanwhile, Julio Robaina got the start on the mound and absolutely dominated across six innings of work.
Robaina managed to hold Tennessee scoreless on the night while holding the Smokies to just three hits and two walks, while striking out eight batters in the process.
Across eight appearances (seven starts) Robaina has posted an ERA of 2.48 in 36.1 innings pitched while striking out 36 batters along the way.
(39-38) Rome Emperors 1, (28-50) Jersey Shore BlueClaws 0
This one ended in weird fashion, as a power outage caused this one to be called after five innings. Thankfully, Rome was on top at the time of the outage, so the Emperors came away with a win to move to one game above .500 on the season.
Cade Kuehler got the start in this one and was rather excellent as he held Jersey Shore scoreless across five innings, scattering just three hits and issuing a pair of walks and striking out four as well.
Meanwhile at the plate, the Emperors tallied just two total hits, but it proved to be more than enough in the shortened game.
Eric Hartman and Mason Guerra both doubled in this one, while the former also walked and the latter plated the only run of the game as Guera scored on a wild pitch in the top of the third to give Rome the 1-0 lead which ultimately proved enough to carry them to victory.
Augusta attempted to battle back from an early deficit in this one, but the GreenJackets ultimately came up short in the 7-4 loss.
Landon Beidelschies got the start in this one and put up somewhat of a decent outing. Across five innings of work, Beidelschies allowed four runs on six hits while also striking out six. While that was enough to keep his offense in the game — and the GreenJackets struggled to score until the latter part of this one.
Alex Lodise got the scoring started for Augusta by launching his 17th homer of the season — a solo shot — in the bottom of the fourth to make it a 4-1 game.
— Augusta GreenJackets (@GreenJackets) July 3, 2026
The GreenJackets tacked on again in the bottom of the seventh as Michael Martinez launched a two-run shot to make it a 5-3 deficit for Augusta.
Trailing 7-3 in the bottom of the eighth, Lodise came through again with an RBI, this time on a sacrifice fly, to make it a 7-4 game. However, that’s the only offense Augusta would get in this one as the GreenJackets ultimately came up short.
Also on the pitching front, Adiel Melendez, who came on in relief, tossed a pair of scoreless frames and struck out a pair of batters to lower his season ERA to 1.86. While he is older for the level at 24, it is encouraging to see for the lefty who could project as a potential bullpen piece at the big league level down the line.
The FCL Braves came up short in this one by a 7-3 final.
Wuilinyer Tovar got the start and tossed five innings of two-run ball. Across those five innings of work, Tovar scattered five hits and gave up two walks while striking out six in the process.
At the plate, the Braves got a solid day at the plate from Johan Rodriguez, who homered, doubled and drove in a pair of runs to pace the offense. Rodriguez is currently carrying an OPS of .796, which leads the FCL squad thus far in the season.
Elias Reyno also drove in a run as well on the night.
Despite scoring seven runs on five hits, the DSL Braves ultimately came up short in the 11-7 final.
Jesus Cova got the start and only spun 2.2 innings of work while giving up a pair of runs and striking out two in the process. While that start wasn’t great, the DSL bullpen faltered tremendously, giving up seven runs in 5.1 innings on the day.
Meanwhile offensively, the DSL squad performed quite well despite the shortcomings of the pitching staff.
Elisandro Ramirez paced the offense as he launched his first professional home run while driving in a pair of runs and scoring twice on the day. Luis Fortunato (one RBI) and Edelson Cabral (two RBI) also played a large part in the DSL team’s day at the plate as well, contributing three of the team’s seven total runs driven in on the day.
Chicago's five-game winning streak came to an abrupt halt on Friday, falling 23-1 in their series opener against St. Louis.
The Cubs are healthy -155 favorites in Game 2, and my Cardinals vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks believe they're a good value to bounce back with a win.
Who will win Cardinals vs Cubs today: Chicago Cubs (-155)
The Chicago Cubsrank 10th in OPS and eighth in ISO against right-handed pitching over the last month. They’re certainly capable of doing damage against Leahy.
Cardinals vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Under 8.0 (-110)
The Cubs don’t hit for average, sitting tied with the Angels for 23rd against right-handed pitching this season.
While they do possess power, colder conditions are expected today with the wind blowing in. That will help Leahy limit the long balls.
The Cardinals don’t feature a ton of power against lefties – they’re 21st in ISO – and the conditions will only make it tougher on them against Imanaga.
With power likely limited, these teams will be forced to string together a lot of hits to score in bulk.
I expect a 4-3 type of game. Play the Under to -120.
Todd Cordell's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 49-39, -0.45 units
Over/Under bets: 47-37-4, +5.49 units
Cardinals vs Cubs weather
Temperatures are projected to hover around 70 with winds blowing inwards and potential showers. These conditions should hurt the offenses.
Cardinals vs Cubs odds
Moneyline: St. Louis +135 | Chicago -155
Run line: St. Louis +1.5 (-150) | Chicago -1.5 (+130)
Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-110) | Under 8.0 (-110)
Cardinals vs Cubs trend
Chicago has hit the moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.10 units, 34% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Cubs.
How to watch Cardinals vs Cubs and game info
Location
Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Date
Saturday, July 4, 2026
First pitch
8:05 p.m. ET
TV
FOX
Cardinals starting pitcher
Kyle Leahy (6-4, 4.09 ERA)
Cubs starting pitcher
Shota Imanaga (5-6, 4.30 ERA)
Cardinals vs Cubs latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - JULY 2: José Alvarado #46 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws a pitch in the top of the seventh inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Citizens Bank Park on July 2, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Pirates defeated the Phillies 6-1. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Even with the MLB trade deadline pushed back to August 3 this year, July still represents the time of year when everyone talks about trades. The Phillies’ 40-20 stretch under interim manager Don Mattingly has catapulted them into buying territory as a team with World Series aspirations. Their expectations for playing deep into October are still the same and reinforcements might go a long way.
Under Dave Dombrowski, the Phillies have typically waited until the day of to make trades. They did get Carlos Estevez multiple days before the deadline and Jhoan Duran the day before in back-to-back seasons but they still generally take things down to the wire.
Assuming that, there is roughly a month from the time of this writing until the deadline. So, here are three things to watch for prior to the deadline.
Orioles, Mets, Giants
These three teams entered the season with playoff aspirations. The Baltimore Orioles added Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, and Shane Baz for a bounce-back season but are eight games under .500 on July 3 and five games out of a playoff spot.
If the Orioles are sellers, Taylor Ward would become the best fit for the Phillies outfield at the deadline. He is generally a streaky hitter and an ok defender, but brings a plus eye at the plate. He has not played a single game in right field since 2022 but sliding over for two months is probably not a massive deal. They could slide Brandon Marsh over if needed. Again, it would only be temporary.
There are some red flags with Ward, his pull air rate is down from 17.8% last year to 12.2% and he does not have the raw power to make that work consistently. His bat speed is down over a mile per hour so there might be physical decline. Again, he is only a rental.
The New York Mets season has been pretty brutal. It’s not all terrible but most of it is. They came into the season expecting to make the playoffs and will be clear sellers at the deadline.
They are a match if the Phillies are looking for bullpen help. Luke Weaver has a 2.00 ERA in 36 innings with the Mets after cutting down his fastball usage. He is owed another year with eleven million, which would boost his trade value so it might cost the Phillies too much.
If they are looking for rentals, AJ Minter and Brooks Raley are interesting fits. Minter missed the beginning of the season recovering from tearing his lat last season but has pitched 14 games and hasn’t allowed a run. His velocity is down nearly two miles per hour and he is not striking out nearly as many batters.
Even at 38, Brooks Raley is still suppressing hard contact while getting strikeouts. He is the classic funky left hander that just knows how to get outs.
The only reliever mentioned with true October stuff is Weaver but the others could help fill a left handed void if the Phillies still need it this time next month.
The Giants have been a disaster with Tony Vitello. There might be too many issues to explain in this article. It’s just all bad.
Robbie Ray makes sense if the Phillies are looking for a starting pitcher. He could slot in as their #4 but might help in a bullpen role if needed. Again, there are red flags. Ray is not getting enough strikeouts or swing and miss, is still prone to walks, and allows a lot of hard contact. The Phillies might not be the best fit.
José Alvarado
No one is going to tell you a 6.10 ERA is good or that he is actually having a good season. He is not.
However, it might not be nearly as bad as people think. Alvarado’s BABIP allowed is over 100 points higher than a year ago despite being very good at limiting hard contact and barrels. His 66.9% strand rate would also be the lowest of his career in a season where he pitched 30 innings or more. He is still striking plenty of hitters out, limiting walks, and throwing gas.
This is all to say that their best left handed reliever option this deadline is probably Alvarado figuring it out. Given all of the indicators represent a pitcher that seems to be getting very unlucky, that just doesn’t seem as impossible as you would think.
Over the next month, it would still be good to see some results. If he can go on a heater, which might be the most likely outcome, then it might allow the Phillies some trade deadline flexibility.
Trea Turner
The Phillies might not be able to make a big offensive upgrade at this trade deadline. That hitter might not become available, and even if he does, the Phillies might not have the prospects to get it done.
April and May were not good months for the Phillies offense but June was. Over that month, they ranked tenth in wRC+ and fourth in home runs. Will it last? That probably depends on Trea Turner.
In 380 plate appearances, Turner is hitting .239 with a .653 OPS as an established top-of-the-order hitter in this lineup. He isn’t the only issue in their lineup, but Alec Bohm, Justin Crawford, JT Realmuto, or whoever you want to label a problem can’t get on the heaters like Turner.
That heater might’ve started, Turner is hitting .340 with a .950 OPS over his last 48 plate appearances. If this can continue for the rest of the season, and that seems like a pretty big if, he might indirectly be the big offensive upgrade the Phillies get this trade deadline.
The Atlanta Braves took the series opener against New York and are heavy -170 favorites to come out on top once again.
The New York Mets own a 7-16 record against left-handed starters. My Mets vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks expect their struggles to continue facing Chris Sale on Saturday, July 4.
Who will win Mets vs Braves today: Atlanta Braves (-170)
Non-elite offenses trying to score on Sale has been like pulling teeth. He has only allowed multiple runs only once over eights starts against teams 15th or worse in ISO.
It’ll be a challenge for a shallow Mets lineup to string together hits, and Sale hasn’t conceded a homer in seven consecutive starts.
The Braves possess power but they have hit just .225 against left-handed pitching since June 1. They’re not generating enough traffic to score in bulk.
I see value on the Under and would play it to -115.
Todd Cordell's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 49-39, -0.45 units
Over/Under bets: 47-37-4, +5.49 units
Mets vs Braves weather
Temperatures could reach the 90s but the winds are blowing slightly inwards. Small boost to the offenses.
Mets vs Braves odds
Moneyline: New York +145 | Atlanta -170
Run line: New York +1.5 (-140) | Atlanta -1.5 (+120)
Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-115) | Under 8.0 (-105)
Mets vs Braves trend
New York has hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 35 away games (+7.80 units, 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves.
How to watch Mets vs Braves and game info
Location
Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Date
Saturday, July 4, 2026
First pitch
8:05 p.m. ET
TV
FOX
Mets starting pitcher
Sean Manaea (1-3, 4.71 ERA)
Braves starting pitcher
Chris Sale (8-6, 2.10 ERA)
Mets vs Braves latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
First place is at stake in the American League Central as the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians meet in Cleveland for the third game in their four-game weekend set.
Cleveland are -133 favorites, having taken the first two games on walk-off hits, taking first in the American League Central Division by a game in the process.
The Guardians have beaten Chicago nine straight in Cleveland. My White Sox vs. Guardians predictions and MLB picks call for that streak to hit 10 with a Guardians win.
Who will win White Sox vs Guardians today: Guardians moneyline (-138)
The Cleveland Guardians have won three straight and five of their last seven, while the Chicago White Sox have dropped the last three and four of six. Cleveland has the No. 8 bullpen in MLB and has gotten stronger, calling up Franco Aleman, who had a 0.32 ERA in Triple-A.
Cleveland starts Parker Messick, who is 7-5, 2.85. Messick's fastball is in the 100th percentile in MLB, and he's in the top quartile in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, strikeout rate and exit velo allowed.
The Guardians' offense is averaging 29 points higher than their season batting average this week, including 19 runs over the last three games.
COVERS INTEL:Sean Burke is not in the top third in MLB in any metric. His fastball velocity is just 53rd percentile, and his exit velocity allowed and whiff percentage are all in the bottom half of MLB pitchers.
White Sox vs Guardians Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-108)
The White Sox start Sean Burke, who is 5-4, 3.69, but has troubling underlying metrics. His fastball is the only pitch above average in MLB, and Cleveland's Brayan Rocchio is one of the top fastball hitters in MLB, hitting .327 with five homers against the pitch.
Burke's walk rate is below average, despite improving it from last season, which is problematic against a Guardians lineup that walked 14 times in the first two games of the series.
Chicago's bats have heated up. They've scored 5.4 runs per game over the last two weeks, an increase of half a run a night over their average.
Shawn Krest's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 24-31, -4.15 units
Over/Under bets: 31-28 +2.30 units
White Sox vs Guardians weather
There is a heat warning in Cleveland with the wind blowing in. There's also a good chance of a thundershower or two this evening.
White Sox vs Guardians odds
Moneyline: White Sox +133 | Guardians -138
Run line: White Sox +1.5 (-163) | Guardians -1.5 (+156)
Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-108) | Under 7.5 (+104)
White Sox vs Guardians trend
The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 35 away games (+10.40 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Guardians.
How to watch White Sox vs Guardians and game info
Location
Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Date
Saturday, July 4, 2026
First pitch
7:05 p.m. ET
TV
CHSN, CleGuardians.TV
White Sox starting pitcher
Sean Burke (5-4, 3.69 ERA)
Guardians starting pitcher
Parker Messick (7-5, 2.85 ERA)
White Sox vs Guardians latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
COVERS INTEL:
William Contreras
Freddie Freeman
JP Crawford
