Category: MLB

The nature of baseball as a sport means that you need more than just a star or two to be a good team. Just look at the Mike Trout/Shohei Ohtani era Angels. Of course you need excellent players as well, but having solid players across the middle and backend of the roster is what turns a fine team into a contending one.

The 1950s Yankees are a good example of this. Of course, everyone remembers the likes of Mickey Mantle and Yogi Berra, but they also had a great core of supporting players. One of those was players was pitcher Eddie Lopat, whose birthday it happens to be today. In his honor, let’s look back at his baseball career.

Edmund Walter “Eddie” Lopat
Born: June 21, 1918 (New York, NY)
Died: June 15, 1992 (Darien, CT)
Yankees Tenure: 1948-55

Born in New York City in 1918, Edmund Walter Lopatynski — he later shortened the name in order to fit it in box scores — grew up a Yankees’ fan in the heyday of the Babe Ruth/Lou Gehrig Murderers’ Row teams, and dreamed of playing for the team. Coming up in the game, he played first base, getting passed over by the Giants at one tryout before getting signed by the Dodgers in 1936.

One problem with Lopat playing first base was that as he came through the minors, he wasn’t a particularly great hitter. His first taste of Class D minor league ball saw him hit .223 with just a .311 slugging. However, something else happened that year that would help Lopat find his way to the majors.

While warming up one day before a game, the catcher he was throwing with noticed Lopat was putting a little extra on his tosses. The manager came over and told Lopat to try throwing a curveball, and came away impressed. From that day forward, Lopat became a pitcher.

As you might expect for someone who switches disciplines like that, it took a little while for Lopat to get to the big leagues as a pitcher. He left the Dodgers’ minor league teams and bounced around a little bit, eventually joining the Little Rock Travelers in 1942. While his 5-foot-10 frame turned some teams off, eventually the White Sox were impressed enough and brought him in for the 1944 season.

After average seasons in Chicago in 1944 and ‘45, Lopat broke out in ‘46. That year, White Sox ace and future Hall of Famer Ted Lyons returned from military service and gave Lopat some tips. Lopat used that advice to put up seasons that were worth 4.0 and 5.5 rWAR in 1946 and ‘47. However, the White Sox as a team weren’t particularly going anywhere, and Lopat’s successes eventually caught the eye of his childhood team.

In February 1948, the Yankees acquired Lopat for a trio of players, and over the next eight seasons, Lopat became a very good mid-rotation arm, known as “The Junkman” for his success despite not a particularly flashy arsenal. While the Yankees lost out on the pennant in his first season there, they returned to the World Series in 1949. They won that won and then added four more in a row, five-peating from 1949-53. Lopat was especially massive in the 1951 World Series. He allowed just one earned run in 18 innings over his two starts that series. He pitched in the Game 2 and Game 5 victories, the first of which tied the series at one after the Giants had won the opener, and the second put the Yankees up 3-2, as they eventually won in six.

On an individual level, Lopat’s best season came in the final year of that five-peat. In 1953, he went 16-4 with a 2.42 ERA, winning the ERA title.

However the year after that, Lopat fell off, posting a below average ERA for the first time since his tenure with the White Sox. He then got off to another slow start the following year. While he was only in his 12th MLB season, his extended journey to the majors meant that Lopat was 37-years-old. That July, the Yankees traded him, sending him to the Orioles. Lopat appeared in 10 games for Baltimore that season, but he continued struggling and decided to retire after the 1955 season.

Following his playing career, Lopat quickly got into coaching. During his playing career with the Yankees, he had a reputation as being almost an assistant pitching coach, including helping the likes of a young Whitey Ford. After a couple seasons as the Yankees Triple-A manager, Casey Stengel brought him in as the official pitching coach for 1960.

Somewhat infamously, the Yankees fired Stengel after they lost the 1960 World Series, and Lopat also left in the aftermath. He later joined former teammate Hank Bauer with the Kansas City Athletics. Bauer couldn’t turn around that struggling franchise, and eventually Lopat was elevated to the manager job. He went 73-89 in 1964, but was let go after a 17-35 start to the ‘65 season.

After his managerial tenure, Lopat became a scout for a number of teams, including a stint back with the Yankees. He settled in Connecticut and lived there until he passed away from pancreatic cancer in 1992.

“Steady Eddie” wasn’t a Hall of Famer, or someone who would get his number retired. However, you need players like him in order to be a great team, and the Yankees were definitely that while Lopat donned the pinstripes.

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

The San Diego Padres desperately needed a win like this one. After the heartbreaking end to the slugging match between San Diego and the Texas Rangers, the club regrouped quickly and forced the rubber match.

After getting into a 1-3 deficit in the seventh inning, the Padres tied it in the eighth and forced the game into extra innings. In the 10th, Manny Machado came up with runners on first and second and took reliever Joe Ross deep to left-center field.

That allowed the Friars to coast to victory despite Mason Miller giving up an unearned run in the bottom frame of the inning. They’ll need to show the same power they’ve displayed in the first two games to take the series.

Taking the mound

Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) v. Lucas Giolito (SD)

(I mistakenly wrote that Eovaldi was pitching on Saturday instead of starter MacKenzie Gore. The former is pitching in today’s rubber game, apologies.)

After turning in the best season of his career in 2025, Eovaldi has looked rough in ‘26 with a 4.23 ERA across 14 starts. Pair that with a 1.17 WHIP through 87 1/3 innings and it’s been tough for the righty.

Eovaldi’s looked better in his last seven starts, pitching to a 3.78 ERA, but it’s still been tough. He’s given up 10 runs across his last 18 2/3 innings. The Padres will hope to beat the Rangers’ starter to win the series.

Giolito has been inconsistent for the Friars but has looked marginally better lately. He’s surrendered six runs across his last 13 innings and owns a 4.56 ERA on the season.

San Diego decided to utilize an opener for starter Griffin Canning as well as Giolito in their last starts. It worked out decently for the right-hander, but he still allowed three runs against the St. Louis Cardinals. He’ll need to pitch better today against Texas.

Batter up!

Machado finally seemed to break out Saturday after a rough night at the plate in the series opener. He knocked in five of the Padres’ six runs and went 2-for-5. Jackson Merrill was also a powerhouse, going 3-for-5, and knocking in the game-tying run in the eighth inning.

1. Fernando Tatis Jr., 2B
2. Samad Taylor, RF
3. Manny Machado, 3B
4. Xander Bogaerts, SS
5. Jackson Merrill, CF
6. Ty France, 1B
7. Gavin Sheets, 1B
8. Will Wagner, DH
9. Blake Hunt, C

Rodolfo Durán could be back behind the dish today but will likely sit to give Hunt a slightly longer look. The backstop went 0-for-3 yesterday in his MLB debut at the plate.

The offense has looked much healthier than it did last series. After scoring just eight runs in the Padres’ series against the St. Louis Cardinals, the lineup has put up 13 in just the first two games. It’s momentum that the club needs heading into their upcoming homestand.

Relief corps

Starter Walker Buehler has been one of the few consistent starters for the Friars in the last month. He’s looked resurgent in his most recent starts. After exiting in the sixth with the score knotted, 1-1, the Padres’ relievers were tasked with holding the Rangers.

Kyle Hart pitched well before Jason Adam allowed his second homer in as many nights. His command has been spotty as of late but he settled in to complete the inning. Adrian Morejon covered the final two innings beautifully, and Miller nailed down the save in the tenth.

That gives San Diego options in the rubber game. Ron Marinaccio, Yuki Matsui, David Morgan and Wandy Peralta will be available out of the ‘pen for the Friars. It seems likely that Peralta will be utilized as an opener after he opened for Giolito in his last start.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (31-42) lost 6-5 (BOX SCORE)

Sugar Land jumped out to an early lead scoring 2 runs in the first inning on a Biggio solo home run and a run on an error. After the Isotopes scored 3 runs in the bottom of the first, Sugar Land retook the lead in the 4th on a Ferreras RBI double and Winkler RBI single. McPherson got the start and allowed 4 runs over 3.1 innings. The Isotopes responded with a run in the 4th and 5th to take the lead. Sugar Land tied the game in the 7th inning on an Alexander solo home run but the Isotopes took the lead again with a run in the bottom of the 8th. Sugar Land was scoreless in the 9th as they ended up falling 6-5;

Note: Ferreras is hitting .471 in Triple-A.

• Cavan Biggio, 2B: 1-for-5, R, HR, RBI
• CJ Alexander, DH: 2-for-2, 2 R, HR, RBI, 2 BB
• Zach Dezenzo, RF: 2-for-4
• Zach Cole, CF: 1-for-4, R, 2B
• Pascanel Ferreras, 3B: 2-for-4, R, 2B, RBI
• Jack Winkler, SS: 1-for-4, RBI

• Brandon McPherson, LHP: 3.1 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 7 K
• Sam Carlson, RHP: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• J.P. France, RHP: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
• Roddery Munoz, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Alimber Santa, RHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (30-38) lost 2-1 (BOX SCORE)

The Hooks got on the board first on an Encarnacion RBI single in the second inning. Dombroski got the start for the Hooks and was solid allowing 2 runs over 5 innings. The pen was solid tossing 4 scoreless innings but the offense was unable to get anything else going as the Hooks fell 2-1.

Note: Brutcher is hitting .388 in Double-A.

• Lucas Spence, CF: 1-for-4, 3B
• Drew Brutcher, DH: 1-for-3, R, BB
• Yamal Encarnacion, 2B: 1-for-4, RBI

• Trey Dombroski, LHP: 5.0 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
• Ramsey David, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• Amilcar Chirinos, RHP: 1.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• Nic Swanson, RHP: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K

A+: Asheville Tourists (18-49) lost 14-1 (BOX SCORE)

DeVos started for Asheville but struggled allowing 3 runs over 2 innings. The pen didn’t fare well either 10 runs over the next few innings. Thomas put Asheville on the board with a solo home run 5th inning. The Hot Rods got a couple more runs and the Asheville offense was quiet the rest of the way as they fell 14-1.

Note: Thomas has a .961 OPS this season.

• Justin Thomas, DH: 1-for-4, R, HR, RBI, BB
• Caden Powell, CF: 1-for-3, 2B, 2 BB
• Chase Call, LF: 1-for-3, BB
• Jack Moss, 1B: 1-for-3, BB

• Nolan DeVos, RHP: 2.0 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
• Garrett Apker, RHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 0 K
• Jackson Wells, RHP: 1.2 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 4 BB, 3 K
• Anthony Cruz, RHP: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
• Conor Steinbaugh, RHP: 2.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (33-34) lost 10-0 (BOX SCORE)

Carrera started for the Woodpeckers and went 5 innings allowing 6 runs while striking out 4. Gonzalez relieved Carrera and allowed 4 runs over 3 innings. The Woodpeckers offense was quiet all night collecting just 5 hits as they were shutout in the 10-0 loss.

Note: Flores has a .771 OPS this season.

• Xavier Neyens, 3B: 1-for-4
• Arturo Flores, 1B: 1-for-4, 2B
• Waner Luciano, RF: 1-for-4
• Kenni Gomez, CF: 1-for-3, BB
• Hector Salas, SS: 1-for-4

• Jesus Carrera, RHP: 5.0 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
• Rafael Gonzalez, RHP: 3.0 IP, 1 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 6 BB, 2 K
• Carlos Cauro, RHP: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: TBD – 7:05 CT

CC: Brett Gillis – 5:05 CT

AV: Dylan Howard – 12:05 CT

FV: TBD – 4:05 CT

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The Philadelphia Phillies are -200 favorites to take the rubber match on Sunday Night Baseball, and for good reason.

My Mets vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks see value in backing the Phillies to win convincingly on home soil.

For more analysis, check out our Mets vs. Phillies prop picks.

Who will win Mets vs Phillies today: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+100)

The New York Metsown a .293 OBP against righties in June and have struck out at the league’s fourth-highest rate.

It’s not going to get any easier against Philadelphia Phillies starter Zack Wheeler.

He has started five games against teams ranking in the bottom half of the league in OBP vs. righties. He posted a 1.72 ERA in those starts while averaging 6 2/3 innings of work.

Wheeler ranks in the 96th percentile in Pitcher Run Value and should have little trouble with this lineup.

Back Philadelphia on the RL to -115.

COVERS INTEL: Mets starter David Peterson ranks in the sixth percentile in Pitcher Run Value, indicating a massive pitching advantage for the Phillies.

Mets vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Under 8.0 (-105)

The Mets rank 29th in OBP and tied for 23rd in runs per game. They are not a good offensive team at the best of times, and it’ll be tough sledding against an in-form Wheeler.

The Phillies are more likely to do damage against David Peterson, but a ceiling game at the plate is still unlikely.

Philadelphia has struggled with lefties for much of the year, hitting just .223 and ranking 23rd in wOBA.

The Mets also have a very rested bullpen behind Peterson, so they’ll be well-equipped to put out fires as they arise.

Play to -115.

Mets vs Phillies weather

Sunny skies and 80-degree weather will help give balls a little more pop tonight. Winds are expected to blow side-to-side.

Mets vs Phillies odds

• Moneyline: Mets +165 | Phillies -200
• Run line: Mets +1.5 (-120) | Phillies -1.5 (+100)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)

Mets vs Phillies trend

Philadelphia has hit the game total Under in 23 of the last 35 games (+11 units, 29% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies.

How to watch Mets vs Phillies and game info

Mets vs Phillies latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Two of three Dodgers affiliates that played on Saturday won their games.

Player of the day

Tulsa outfielder Chris Newell was designated to hit on Saturday, and that he did. He hit the game-tying home run in the ninth inning, then smashed the game-winning two-run shot in the 11th.

Triple-A Oklahoma City

Cole Irvin pitched six scoreless innings in the Comets’ third shutout win of the season, on Saturday blanking the Sacramento River Cats (Giants). All three shutouts have been home games in Oklahoma City, including April 10 vs. Round Rock and May 21 vs. Reno.

Ryan Fitzgerald doubled, singled, and drove in three runs. Noah Miller also had two hits and, shifting over from his usual shortstop to play third base, made this fantastic diving stab and throw at the hot corner in the sixth inning.

Double-A Tulsa

Down 5-1 in the ninth inning, the Drillers rallied for four runs to force extra innings, then beat the Northwest Arkansas Naturals (Royals) in the 11th. Before Newell’s tying blast in the ninth, Jake Gelof hit a three-run shot, his team-leading 14th of the season.

Before Newell’s winning home run in the 11th, Northwest Arkansas had runners at the corners with one out in the 10th. Gelof threw home on a grounder to nail the potential winning run to keep the game going.

Adam Serwinowski struck out six in his 6 1/3 innings, and allowed three runs, one of them earned. Antonio Knowles struck out three and stranded a pair of free runners over the final two inning scoreless to earn the win.

High-A Great Lakes

The penultimate game of the series between the Loons and the Lake County Captains (Guardians) was rained out.

The game will be made up during the last week of the regular season, September 1-6, when Great Lakes travels to Lake County. That means we could see a Great Lakes home game while on the road, the opposite of what happened in the second game of a doubleheader this Wednesday, then Lake County was the home team for a game at Great Lakes.

Class-A Ontario

Allowing runs in seven of nine innings spoiled the voyage for the Tower Buzzers in a loss to the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (Angels).

Most of the offense for Ontario came out of the 9-1-2 spots. Oswaldo Osorio had three hits batting ninth. Catcher Bryan Gonzalez Garcia and second baseman Mairo Martinus each had two hits, with a double for Gonzalez Garcia and a triple for Martinus. Those three combined to score six of Ontario’s eight runs.

Transaction

Triple-A: Right-hander Chayce McDermott was called up to the Dodgers.

Saturday scores

• Oklahoma City 6, Sacramento 0
• Tulsa 7, NW Arkansas 5 (11 innings)
• Great Lakes vs. Lake County, postponed (rain)
• Rancho Cucamonga 13, Ontario 8

Sunday schedule

• 10:05 a.m. PT: Great Lakes (Sterling Patick) vs. Lake County (Jogly Garcia)
• 12:05 p.m.: Tulsa (Payton Martin) at NW Arkansas (Hunter Patteson)
• 1:05 p.m.: Ontario (TBA) vs. Rancho Cucamonga (Derek Clark)
• 4:05 p.m.: Oklahoma City (Jackson Ferris) vs. Sacramento (Carson Seymour)

Not much went right for the Yankees during their 10-2 loss to the Reds yesterday. The defense was shoddy, Will Warren got rattled and gave up a game-breaking tank, and they made mistakes at both the plate and on the bases. In short, if you knew nothing about the game aside from the fact that they lost 10-2, you’d probably guesss that they played poorly.

The silver lining is that every team has awful days. That’s the sport! And the Yankees hadn’t lost a game by this margin in over a month. Just for a few points of comparison, the Dodgers lost by eight to the Angels on June 7th, the Braves got blanked by the Red Sox 8-0 on May 27th, and the Rays have actually suffered multiple 8-0 losses in June. The Yankees have mostly stayed competitive, even in losses. They’re 15-7 since Memorial Day. Sleep off the ugly loss and move on! Even with Aaron Judge out and Chase Burns going today for Cincy, this is still a very talented team to watch.

Here’s some of what else was going on around the Junior Circuit on Saturday.

Tampa Bay Rays (42-31) 3, Washington Nationals (40-37) 4

The Yankees’ three-game lead in the AL East remained intact despite the blowout because the resurgent Nationals capably turned away the Rays down in St. Petersburg. At the outset, it seemed like it could’ve gotten ugly in a hurry for the visitors, as Cade Cavalli allowed the first three batters to reach on singles, loading the bases with no one out and masher Junior Caminero due up. But Cavalli hung in there and limited Caminero to a sacrifice fly before getting a double-play ball from Richie Palacios.

Likely NL All-Star shortstop CJ Abrams then wasted no time in bringing the score back to even at 1-1, launching an Ian Seymour pitch for his 16th homer of 2026 to begin the second.

Nasim Nuñez soon cashed in the Nats’ second run of the inning, doubling in Dylan Crews after the latter followed Abrams’ homer with a single to center.

The Rays continued to grind against Cavalli, making it a 2-2 game when Chandler Simpson drove in Caminero on an RBI knock in the third. The crushing blow would not land for Tampa Bay however, and though Cavalli would exit having recorded just 8 eights on 68 pitches, Mitchell Parker held them down. He got the last out of the inning and then combined with Brad Lord to cover the next five scoreless. The bullpen also got a huge assist from center fielder Jacob Young, who made a phenomenal catch in center to rob Victor Mesa Jr. of a game-tying double in the eighth.

Young left the game with a side injury and the Nats had to lose the DH to cover themselves on defense, but it was worth it — especially when the ninth got dicey.

Washington had taken the lead in the fifth with the help of a leadoff hit by Keibert Ruiz and a James Wood double to move the catcher to third. A soft groundout by erstwhile Baby Bomber Andrés Chaparro made it 3-2, Nats. Thanks in part to Young, that’s where the score remained in the final frame. One-time top prospect Dylan Crews smashed a homer off Cam Booser to give the Nats insurance that they would need with 2025 Amed Rosario trade return Clayton Beeter in to close it out.

Two batters into the ninth Beeter had already allowed Tampa Bay to chip away one run. Taylor Walls walked, stole second and third, and dented home plate when Yandy Díaz singled him in. Jonny DeLuca pinch-ran for Yandy and swiped second himself, putting the tying run in scoring position with the winning run of course at bat in recent All-Star Jonathan Aranda. But Beeter got Aranda to fly out, fanned Cedric Mullins, and intentionally walked Caminero to set up a three-pitch strikeout of Ben Williamson. Thanks, old pal!

Other Games

Toronto Blue Jays (38-39) 8, Chicago Cubs (40-37) 6: The Jays have had a weird enough American League pennant defense this year that we’ve probably said this about at least a few of their wins this year. Nonetheless: Boy, they needed this one. Fresh off sweeping the Red Sox at Fenway, the Cubbies had cut ’em down to size by blowing them out 16-2 at Wrigley on Friday and comfortably led 5-0 entering the seventh yesterday thanks to homers by Pete Crow-Armstrong and Matt Shaw. Colin Rea departed following 5.1 scoreless innings, but the Chicago bullpen absolutely beefed it. Trent Thornton allowed a three-run bomb to Daulton Varsho that allowed Toronto to get back into it, and in the eighth, Caleb Thielbar and Jacob Webb got smacked around on RBI knocks by Alejandro Kirk and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to tie the game at 5-5.

Then Kazuma Okamoto unloaded on Webb to put the Jays ahead:

The Cubs almost got back into it though. Mason Fluharty immediately loaded the bases on a walk and two hits, bringing the go-ahead run to the plate. Closer Louie Varland entered to put out the fire, getting the next three batters in order and only allowing one of the baserunners to score. An error by Varland in the ninth did grant Chicago two shots to tie it up on another dinger, but Shaw was caught looking and rookie Pedro Ramírez grounded out to end it.

Cleveland Guardians (41-36) 8, Houston Astros (36-42) 1: The top pick of the 2024 MLB Draft, Travis Bazzana, has only played 46 games, but I’m beginning to think that there’s probably no better pick to lead the AL All-Star contingent at second than him. He clobbered a pair of homers off Spencer Arrighetti (the first leading off the game) as part of a smooth Guardians win in Houston, and the 23-year-old rookie is now hitting .274/.369/.476 with a 136 wRC+. He finished the day 4-for-4 with five RBI. Ernie Clement will likely get voted in as the All-Star starter, but Bazzana would probably be my pick for the keystone reserve. Anyway, as far as standings are concerned, Cleveland’s win put them one up in the AL Central with the Pale Hose losing in Detroit earlier in the day.

Seattle Mariners (39-39) 1, Boston Red Sox (31-43) 5: The AL West is back to a merely .500 leader, as the M’s lost their second in a row to the Red Sox. They only hold first place alone because the A’s got blown out by the Angels in West Sacramento, which says more about the true quality of the A’s than anything else. Anyway, up in the Emerald City, Boston rookie Connelly Early outpitched Emerson Hancock, allowing just one run on two hits in six innings of work, fanning seven while Wilyer Abreu’s 414-foot blast put the Red Sox ahead in the fourth. The rest of their runs scored on only infield singles and a wild pitch, but they count all the same.

Happy Father’s Day to all the dads out there. Let’s look at the kids on the farm.

Lehigh Valley 4, Worcester 3

Two things to notice in this game. First, Felix Reyes continues to crush the pitching at this level something that we have seen him do all year long.

At this point, it’s probable that the team goes outside of the organization to improve in the outfield and that Reyes won’t get a long term chance to see if he can do it against major league pitching consistently. He’s been great at Lehigh Valley, but that’s probably as far as he’ll get. The second thing to notice is Kyle Backhus had another scoreless inning here and will probably be back in the majors soon. The team needs left handed relief pitching badly, so hopefully Backhus can come back and be as good as he was earlier.

Reading 3, Hartford 1

Adam Seminaris was great for Reading, throwing seven innings of one run ball, only allowing three hits and striking out seven. He’s not a big time prospect or anything, but any time solid pitching is done in the minor leagues, it should be noted. The offense got another home run from Alex Binelas, his fifteenth on the year. He’s been a good minor league find for the team. Bryan Rincon had an RBI double as he continues his prospect resurgence.

Greenville 4, Jersey Shore 1

Carter Mathison was the story here, his home run accounting for the lone run in the game for the BlueClaws. It was a meager offensive night with only four hits on the night for them. Mathison had the only run, but Luis Caicuto had two hits for himself. On the mound, Tanner Gresham was solid in his five innings of work, only allowing three runs, two earned, but it wasn’t nearly enough with the offense doing little.

Bradenton 4, Clearwater 2

Sean Youngerman had a so-so night on the mound for the Threshers, giving up only two runs, but allowing four hits and four walks. He’s continuing to disappoint. Nathan Humphreys had a two-run home run for the Threshers in the first inning, but that was all they could muster the rest of the game as the Marauders pitching staff, including a rehabbing Mike Clevinger, shut down Clearwater the rest of the way. The game was tied going into the ninth inning, a close one, but was lost when Brent Iredale hit a walkoff home run for Bradenton off James Tallon.

Saturday’s action in the Atlanta Braves system was headlined by Eric Hartman’s 18th homer of the season, but he wasn’t alone in hitting it out of the park. Luis Guanipa, Conor Essenburg, and Cody Miller all homered in a fun Augusta game, while Johan Rodriguez hit a pair down in the FCL. We also got to witness the rare strong pitching performance from the DSL club, while Columbus had a pair of games called off due to weather.

Louisville Bats 4, Gwinnett Stripers 2

• Jim Jarvis, SS: 0-2, 2 BB, SB, .305/.399/.447
• Aaron Schunk, 1B: 3-4, HR, R, RBI, .248/.311/.391
• Austin Gomber, SP: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K, 5.52 ERA
• Elieser Hernandez, RP: 2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, 5.13 ERA

Box Score

Statcast

Austin Gomber turned in six strong innings on Saturday, allowing just one run on three hits and no walks with four strikeouts and 14 whiffs. Elieser Hernandez followed him and did allow three runs on five hits, but also struck out hitters for all six outs he recorded. Hayden Harris finished the game off with a scoreless ninth inning.

Aaron Schunk led the offense, going three for four with a homer, scoring and batting in one of the two runs. Cal Conley had a pair of singles and Jim Jarvis drew a pair of walks with both stealing a base, joining Schunk with multi-hit games. The rest of the offense managed just two hits, though there was a Brewer Hicklen double included in there.

Columbus Clingstones vs Biloxi Shuckers – PPD

Columbus Clingstones vs Biloxi Shuckers – Cancelled

The doubleheader for Columbus got rained out, which included the resumption of Friday night’s game and a new game for Saturday. The Friday game will be played as part of a doubleheader on Sunday, while the second game has been cancelled.

Hudson Valley Renegades 3, Rome Emperors 2

• Tate Southisene, SS: 0-2, 2 BB, .220/.360/.341
• Eric Hartman, LF: 1-4, HR, R, 2 RBI, .300/.362/.580
• John Gil, 2B: 1-4, R, .277/.372/.434
• Zach Royse, SP: 5 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 5.40 ERA

Box Score

Zach Royse was mostly solid in this start, though did allow a pair of homers, leading to the three runs against him. Royse allowed the three runs on eight hits and two walks over five innings, striking out three and whiffing five. David Rodriguez followed with two scoreless innings that included three strikeouts and seven whiffs, before new Braves farm hand Jarret Whorff made his debut with a scoreless inning. Mathieu Curtis finished it off with a scoreless frame.

Eric Hartman continued his destruction of A-ball pitchers on Saturday, when he hit his 18th homer of the season. Unfortunately that homer accounted for all of the Emperors scoring in this one, as they managed just six hits. Mason Guerra came through with two of those, while John Gil and Owen Carey also added one. Tate Southisene was held out of the hit column, but did draw a pair of walks, while Isaiah Drake and Dixon Williams were each hitless in four plate appearances.

Augusta GreenJackets 11, Hill City Howlers 10

• Luis Guanipa, CF: 3-6, HR, R, 3 RBI, .323/.373/.500
• Conor Essenburg, RF: 2-5, HR, R, 3 RBI, .273/.412/.509
• Cody Miller, 2B: 2-4, HR, BB, 2 R, RBI, .185/.343/.407
• Jeremy Reyes, SP: 4.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 3.86 ERA

Box Score

Jeremy Reyes got the start in what turned out to be a fun shootout of a game. Reyes allowed two runs on four hits and a walk over four and two thirds, striking out three and whiffing eight. It was actually better than the line suggests, as he allowed the runs in the first inning and didn’t allow anyone else to score the rest of the way. Lewis Sifontes went the next inning and a third scoreless, striking out hitters for three of the four outs he recorded. Jaylen Paden and Carter Lovasz each got tagged for a pair of runs as Hill City attempted to crawl out from an 8-2 deficit. Hill City was actually able to take the lead in the ninth, as they got four runs off Styven Paez, before Cristobal Abreu came on to get the final out of the ninth.

The bigger story of the game is the offense was very productive. Luis Guanipa, Conor Essenburg, and Cody Miller each homered, making it nine for Guanipa, six for Essenburg (in 29 games), and four for Miller (in just 13 games). Guanipa actually ended up with a three hit and three RBI day, while Essenburg and Miller each had two hits – and Essenburg also batted in three runs. Those weren’t the only stars here, as Juan Mateo singled, doubled, and walked plus stole a base, and Cooper McMurray singled twice, walked, and batted in three runs. Michael Martinez also walked and singled in four plate appearances. In all eight starters reached base safely, and seven of them did it multiple times. The lone Jacket not to reach was Alex Lodise, who was hitless in five at bats with a golden sombrero.

FCL Braves 5, FCL Rays 2

• Johan Rodriguez, 1B: 3-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, .247/.319/.432
• Malvin Fernandez, 3B: 2-3, HR, 2 R, RBI, .179/.296/.269
• Gensi Angeles, RP: 3.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 3 K, 2.06 ERA

Box Score

Statcast

Danny Young made a rehab start that lasted the first inning and included five whiffs before giving way to team ace Gensi Angeles for the second inning. Angeles went three and a third out of the pen, allowing a run on three hits and four walks while striking out three and picking up 10 whiffs. Ryan Heppner followed and allowed a run over his inning and two thirds, and Luis Arestigueta finished the game off by going three scoreless innings and allowing just one base runner to pick up his first save here.

Johan Rodriguez smashed two home runs on a three-hit day, while Malvin Fernandez hit one himself during a two-hit afternoon. The homers were the first of the season for Fernandez, and the second and third of the year for Rodriguez. Those two provided the bulk of the offense, as the only other player to reach base more than once was catcher Yoelvis Betancourt, who singled twice. Shortstop Manuel Campos walked once in four plate appearances and also stole a base, while Diego Tornes had the day off.

DSL Braves 4, DSL Red Sox Blue 1

• Starlyn De La Cruz, CF: 1-2, 3B, BB, R, .341/.491/.568
• Yassel Pena, 1B: 1-3, 2B, R, .304/.467/.565
• Elioberto Mondesir, RF: 0-2, BB, 2 R, SB, .182/.308/.182
• Cesar Navarro, SP: 4.2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 2.25 ERA

Box Score

The DSL Braves came into today with a team 11.37 ERA in their first 14 games, but got an excellent pitching performance on Saturday. Starter Cesar Navarro, who has been one of the two bright spots on the pitching staff, went four and two thirds scoreless in this one. Navarro allowed just one hit and three walks while striking out three and dropped his ERA to 2.25. Moises Semerite followed and allowed the one Red Sox run in his inning of work, before a scoreless frame from Giovanni Medina followed by Geowin Gomez picking up the save by collecting the final out.

It was a relatively quiet day for the bats from the DSL. Starlyn De La Cruz and Yassel Pena led the way, with De La Cruz tripling, walking, and scoring a run in four plate appearances while Pena doubled and scored a run in three appearances. Luis Fortunato singled, walked, and stole a base while Elias Reyno had a pair of singles, two steals, and threw out a runner at the plate. Bigger names like Jose Manon and Edelson Cabral went hitless, while recent signee Elioberto Mondesir walked, stole his fourth base in four games, and scored two runs.

I just can’t keep saying it happens. It happens that a team that played in the World Series last year finds some pride and comes off the mat for an 8-6 win after a 5-0 deficit. All of these “it happens” moments just keep piling up. Just one more disappointment on the stack.

Over the course of a season, if you are a longtime baseball fan, you’ll get echoes of this season and that season and the other season. The weight of baseball memory fills in a lot of blanks. I am feeling some of the 2023 Cubs vibes lately. Not to bring back bad memories, but that was a team that let just so many games slip through their fingertips. And then when the dust settled, they finished one game behind the Arizona Diamondbacks. A team that swept them in September. A team that got hot and rolled all of the way to the World Series. An 84-win team.

That is the atmosphere that MLB is intentionally cultivating. It is very much a good thing for MLB for an occasional 84-win team to roll to the World Series. If the Series every year features teams that win 95 games, then there is still a reason to mail it in after the All-Star break. But MLB has allowed more and more teams into the postseason. They want teams staying in contention.

That’s the frustrating thing. We’ve seen that this team can get hot. We’ve seen the things this team is capable of when things land just right. You have to play it out. But this team doesn’t have enough of the right horses. They don’t have enough starting pitching. They don’t have enough relief pitching. They don’t have enough truly elite offensive players.

Not good enough. I’ve said that a few times lately too, right? This team has themes and rarely are they good ones. All too many times in Cubs history a special player having a special season goes to waste. This season increasingly feels like one long lost opportunity and adventure in disappointment.

Oh, and as I write, the team is in a virtual four-way tie for the last Wild Card spot. So for all of the ineptitude, they are right in the thick of things. Multiple teams are going to have crushing disappointment at the end of this season. There are 12 NL teams either holding playoff spots or within three games of one as we tip toe towards the midpoint of the season. How many of those 12 teams will stay in the fight deep into September.

This team is simultaneously not good enough and also likely to be one of those teams in the fight until the end. This will be one long ride. And at any point if this team actually got red hot, they could be in comfortably. But that isn’t how this script is going to play out. Buckle up.

Three Positives:

• Pete Crow-Armstrong had two hits, one a two-run homer and drew a walk.
• Colin Rea: 5.1 innings, three hits, no walks, no runs.
• Dansby Swanson had a single, a double and drew a walk. He scored once.

Game 77, June 20:

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.170). 2-4, HR, BB, 2 RBI, R
• Hero: Colin Rea (.164). 5.1 IP, 19 BF, 3 H, 0 BB, 0 R, 3 K
• Sidekick: Ryan Rolison (.113). 0.2 IP, 1 BF

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Jacob Webb (-.576). 0.2 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 2K (L 1-2)
• Goat: Caleb Thielbar (-.203). 0.1 IP, 3 BF, H, BB
• Kid: Michael Busch (-.114). 1-4, BB, DP

Jacob Webb will end up as one of the bottom two WPA game scores of the season when this is finalized. He also owns the other one, back on April 5. With the changes to way WPA has become available, the easiest thing for me to do will be to write up a separate piece at the end of the month on really high or really low WPA scores.

WPA Play of the Game: Kazuma Okamoto’s three-run homer with one out in the eighth broke a 5-5 tie. (.357)

Cubs Play of the Game: Matt Shaw’s three-run homer with no outs in the second gave the Cubs an early three run lead. (.183)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 76 Winner: Carson Kelly, 99 votes (138 total)

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Michael Busch +22
• Pete Crow-Armstrong +16
• Ben Brown +13.5
• Carson Kelly +10.5
• Michael Conforto +9
• Edward Cabrera -9.5
• Phil Maton -10
• Dansby Swanson -11
• Caleb Thielbar -13
• Seiya Suzuki -19.5

Up Next: The third and final game of the series between these two teams. Shōta Imanaga (4-6, 4.26) starts for the Cubs. In three June starts, he has no decisions but a 3.78 ERA over 16.2 innings. Ex-Cub prospect Dylan Cease (4-3, 2.71) gets the Jays start. In a disappointing Jays season, Cease has been a bright spot. This will be a tough one. In two June starts he has allowed one run over 11 innings. He missed time in late May and early June, but has bounced back very strongly. He’s 4-2 with a 2.47 in eight career starts against the Cubs (in the regular season).

Yesterday, we saw the best of Dylan Crews. He was hitting rifles all over the yard, including a 442 foot nuke to give the Nats an insurance run they desperately needed. This was Dylan Crews at his best, something we unfortunately do not see often enough. Crews has these great games, they just do not happen often enough.

Even after yesterday’s great performance, Crews’ overall numbers are far from impressive. He is hitting .198 with a .602 OPS on the season. There have been times this year where Dylan Crews has looked really good, but it is usually followed by several games where he does nothing.

A perfect example of that just happened recently. Crews hit a massive 3-run homer against the Royals, and then followed it up by going 1 for 11. That just feels like the story of Crews’ season, and really his big league career. It is one step forward, two steps back.

However, when you look at the underlying data, there is some reason for optimism, though I will show one area of weakness to explore. Crews’ xwOBA is .342, which is above average, and way better than his .264 wOBA. He is hitting the ball hard, swinging hard, and actually hitting way fewer ground balls.

Crews has had a major ground ball problem in the past, so many fans including myself assumed that was still the case this year. However, that is not his big issue right now. Crews’ 41.5% GB rate is actually lower than average and way down from his 50.2% rate from last year.

If ground balls are not the problem for Crews, then what is? In my opinion, he has two issues. The first one is pretty straightforward, he is chasing a ton and not walking at all. Crews’ chase rate this year is a career high 37.6%. In 2024 and 2025, Crews’ chase rate was under 30%. The lack of chase, as well as the lack of fear he brings pitchers is why he is not walking at all. Crews only has 2 walks all season, which is a 1.9% BB rate. 

Crews’ second problem is actually a bit counterintuitive. He is hitting the ball to the middle of the field too often right now. Dylan Crews is hitting the ball straightaway 48.8% of the time, over 10% more often than the average hitter. As kids, we were all taught to use the middle of the field, but in 2026 major league baseball, that strategy has drawbacks.

Lance Brozdowski made a video about how balls hit to center field, even barrels to center are outs more than ever in the past few seasons. One of the big reasons for this is pretty simple, center fielders have gotten insanely good at defense. From Jacob Young to PCA to Ceddanne Rafaela and more, there are just so many good center fielders right now.

The average center fielder is also much better at defense. Even Dylan Crews himself is a good example of a good center field defender, at least when he is out there. With positioning being very good and all these hyper athletes in center, it is tough to live off the middle of the field.

You also have to really destroy a ball to hit a homer to center field. Dylan Crews can obviously do that, as we saw yesterday. However, it is a tough way to live, especially if you are not an 80 grade power guy like James Wood. Honestly, as we see from Wood, flyballs the other way are more productive than ones to center.

Crews’ heavy use of the middle of the field could explain why his xwOBA is so much higher than his raw numbers. Part of this is bad luck, but Crews also has a bad habit of hitting the ball to the other team’s best defenders. Even with that in mind, I do think Crews is getting unlucky.

However, until he starts pulling the ball more, or even just not hitting half his balls up the middle, he is going to underperform his expected stats. It is an interesting dilemma that would not have been as much of a problem even 10 years ago. However, the up the middle athletes these days are just insane.

For these reasons, Dylan Crews is still searching for that consistency. He is doing a lot of things well, like hitting the ball hard, whiffing less and elevating more. You would think his luck will turn around some, but there are some interesting factors at play with Crews.

Good morning, folks…

The Texas Rangers fell to the San Diego Padres yesterday by a score of 6-4.

Shawn McFarland’s game story talks about the problems the Rangers have in the bullpen when they get past Jakob Junis and Jacob Latz.

Nathan Eovaldi was scratched from his scheduled start on Saturday, but will be starting today.

Corey Seager is close to returning from the concussion injured list.

Jarred Kelenic is looking to take advantage of the opportunity that he’s getting with the Rangers.

Evan Grant talks about who the leaders of the team in the clubhouse are.

The MLB Draft Combine will take place this coming week.

In non-Rangers news, Justin Verlander, who was scheduled to come off the injured list and start today, will instead be on the injured list for weeks longer due to a hamstring strain.

David Laurila has his Sunday Notes column up at Fangraphs.

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The Atlanta Braves will look to complete a three-game sweep as they host the Milwaukee Brewers once more on Sunday afternoon.

Milwaukee’s Robert Gasser has let batters get the ball in the air, and that could mean bad news against Atlanta, which I’m taking to complete the sweep in my Brewers vs. Braves predictions.

Read on for full analysis of this afternoon matchup as I share my free MLB picks for Sunday, June 21.

Who will win Brewers vs Braves today: Braves moneyline (-131)

Atlanta Braves starter Bryce Elder hasn’t been missing as many bats as he’d like, but he has generated poor contact. 

Opponents are barreling up on just 3.8% of the balls they hit against Elder, and the Milwaukee Brewers likely won’t do any better, as they’ve only generated a 7.1% barrel rate this season.

Brewers starter Robert Gasser has arguably underperformed his metrics, but his 24.6% ground-ball rate is among the lowest in MLB. That’s a bad sign against a Braves team that hits 59.8% of its balls in the air.

I like Atlanta to win at -140 or better.

COVERS INTEL: Gasser has struggled with his sinker this season, allowing a .398 wOBA on the pitch – one that the Braves pull in the air a solid 11.1% of the time.

Brewers vs Braves Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+101)

As I noted above, Gasser does have some promising advanced metrics that suggest we should expect more from him.

He has a sterling .186 xBA and holds the opposition to a 29.0% hard-hit rate. That’s a measure where Atlanta is pretty mediocre at 40.1%.

Combine that with Elder’s ability to avoid hard contact, and we could be in for a well-pitched game despite the quality of these offenses.

The first two games of this series ended with totals of seven runs or less, and I like the Under again in today’s game as long as the total stays at 8.5. 

Brewers vs Braves weather

No rain is expected on a sunny day in Cumberland, GA with calm winds blowing in from right-center.

Brewers vs Braves odds

• Moneyline: Brewers +107 | Braves -127
• Run line: Brewers +1.5 | Braves -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Brewers vs Braves trend

The Brewers are 1-4 straight up in Gasser’s last five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Braves.

How to watch Brewers vs Braves and game info

Brewers vs Braves latest injuries

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A day after the big four of Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts combined to go 0-for-17 at the plate in a 9-7 loss, the same group went 8-for-19 with a home run, three doubles, four runs scored, six RBI, a walk and three strikeouts en route to a 6-4 win in 10 innings over the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field in Arlington.

Machado finished with five RBI in the game and launched what proved to be the game-winning three-run home run in the top of the 10th inning that gave the Padres a 6-3 lead. Mason Miller came on for the bottom of the 10th inning and allowed the Manfred Man from second base to score on an infield hit by Wyatt Langford with two outs in the inning, but a earned his 20th save of the season when he struck out the next batter, Bandon Nimmo, to end the game.

San Diego was able to force the game to go to extra innings when Merrill hit a ground ball into right field with the Padres trailing 3-2 in the top of the eighth inning. The single allowed Samad Taylor to score from second base to tie the game. Adrian Morejon came on to replace Jason Adam for the bottom of the eighth inning after he allowed two runs on two hits in the bottom of the seventh. Morejon faced four batters and recorded three strikeouts in the eighth and returned to the mound for the bottom of the ninth. He faced four batters in the ninth as well and recorded two more strikeouts to give him five in just two innings of work. That set the stage for the Padres to score in the top of the 10th to get Miller to the mound for the save.

San Diego got the first run of the game in the top of the third inning when Machado lined a ball into right-center field, which was just beyond the reach of Langford and kicked off the tip of his glove and rolled to the wall. Tatis Jr., who was on second base after a one-out double, came around to score to give the Padres a 1-0 lead.

San Diego held the lead until the bottom of the sixth inning when starter Walker Buehler allowed back-to-back one-out doubles, which allowed Texas to tie the game at 1-1. Buehler came out after the run scored after completing 5.1 innings with one run allowed on five hits with one walk and seven strikeouts. It was another strong performance turned in by the right-hander who has allowed just three runs over his last three starts with three walks and 16 strikeouts. Buehler has quietly been the one of the best pitchers in the San Diego rotation.

The Padres will try to win the series against the Rangers with a win in Game 3 today at 11:35 a.m.

Padres News:

• Catcher Blake Hunt has spent his entire career in the minor leagues with multiple organizations, but he finally got to make his MLB debut with the team that drafted him, San Diego. A day after making his debut, he got his first start in the majors.

• San Diego’s top prospect Ethan Salas has cooled off at the plate recently, but now he will be unable to contribute at all thanks to an oblique injury.

Baseball News:

• Bryce Harper hit for the cycle and Kyle Schwarber hit three home runs as the Philadelphia Phillies clobbered the New York Mets, 15-3.

• Jake McCarthy hit a leadoff inside the park home run off Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes and the Colorado Rockies earned a 2-1 win.

• Ozzie Albies hit a walk-off home run to lead the Atlanta Braves past the Milwaukee Brewers.

• The Toronto Blue Jays scored eight unanswered runs to beat the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.

• Sal Stewart drove in six runs to lead the Cincinnati Reds past the New York Yankees.

• The Miami Marlins continued notching wins beating the San Francisco Giants, 6-3.

• Trevor Rogers allowed one hit, and the Baltimore Orioles got a 3-2 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers.

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Major League Baseball is offering up a tasty Father's Day slate to attack today.

We've scoured the MLB odds to find three solid plus-money props, highlighted by a favorable matchup for Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Freddie Freeman.

Read on for my favorite MLB player props for Sunday, June 21.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Travis Bazzana	Over 1.5 total bases	+141
Brandon Lowe	home run	+255
Freddie Freeman	Over 1.5 total bases	+116

Travis Bazzana Over 1.5 total bases (+141)

Batting leadoff should give the Cleveland Guardians 2B Travis Bazzana four to five plate appearances against Houston Astros righty Kai-Wei Teng, boosting his chances of clearing 1.5 total bases. 

Bazzana is red-hot, hitting .375 over his last seven games while carrying a strong .845 OPS on the season. He has also excelled against right-handed pitching, batting .327.

Teng is a favorable target, carrying a -6 Run Value on his fastball while allowing lefties to slug .592 against his changeup. 

With a disciplined 22.2% chase rate, Bazzana should force Teng into the zone and get pitches he can drive for extra bases. Play this to +100. 

• Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Guardians.TV, Space City Home Network

Brandon Lowe Over 0.5 home runs (+255)

Pittsburgh Pirates 2B Brandon Lowe is in an excellent spot to go deep against Colorado Rockies right-hander Michael Lorenzen.

Lowe has already launched 18 home runs while posting an .842 OPS this season, and his underlying metrics remain strong, ranking in the 79th percentile in Barrel Rate and the 83rd percentile in expected slugging percentage (xSLG).

Lorenzen has struggled badly in 2026, carrying a 7.13 ERA and 5.60 xERA while allowing opponents to post a .478 xSLG.

His four-seam fastball, changeup, and cutter all carry negative Run Values, giving a power hitter like Lowe multiple pitches he can punish.

• Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Rockies.TV

Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (+116)

Freddie Freeman is in an excellent position to clear 1.5 total bases against Baltimore Orioles right-hander Brandon Young. 

The Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman owns an .834 OPS this season and continues to generate elite contact quality, ranking in the 91st percentile in xwOBA, 88th percentile in xSLG, 75th percentile in Barrel Rate, and 70th percentile in Hard-Hit Rate. 

The matchup is favorable as well. Young carries a 4.32 xERA with a modest 16.6% strikeout rate, while opponents are batting .389 and slugging .528 against his sinker.

Freeman has crushed sinkers this season, boasting a .340 wOBA with a .404 slugging percentage and a +9 Run Value against four-seamers, making him a strong candidate to cash this total bases prop. Play to -110. 

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MASN, SportsNet LA

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After taking two of the three from the Mets, the Cincinnati Reds look for consecutive series wins in New York as they play the rubber match of their three-game set with the Yankees today.

With the Reds trotting out budding ace Chase Burns, my Reds vs. Yankees predictions and free MLB picks have Cincy in prime position to take this series against the AL East leaders.

Who will win Reds vs Yankees today: Reds moneyline (+105)

Injuries have pushed 23-year-old Chase Burns into the ace role, and he's responded by allowing two or fewer runs in 13 of 14 starts.

The New York Yankees punish mistakes, leading the majors in home runs, but Burns avoids the big inning.

The Cincinnati Reds face highly-touted prospect Elmer Rodriguez, making just his second career start, against a Reds lineup whose best 2026 hitting split is on the road (.237 average).

Cincinnati has won six of its last eight meetings with New York, so I'd play the Reds up to -150.

COVERS INTEL: New York is well aware of what Burns is capable of. They were the team that he faced off against in his big league debut, nearly a year ago to the day, and his effort was described as electric.

Reds vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-116)

Burns’ ability to shut down a batting lineup has been remarkable, which lends itself more to the Under. The total has gone Under 9 in five of his last eight starts.

New York is in a mini power outage, losing two of three and scoring just three runs in those losses.

On the other side, even if the Reds can chase Rodriguez out after plating a few runs, they’ll have to deal with a Yankees’ bullpen that’s currently seventh in ERA.

The Under has cashed in five of the last seven matchups between these teams, and that trend should continue today.

Anything better than -125 is acceptable.

Reds vs Yankees weather

The bats will get a slight bump with 81F temperatures and sunny conditions, and an 8 mph wind blowing out to right-center.

Reds vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Reds -106 | Yankees -110
• Run line: Reds +1.5 | Yankees -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Reds vs Yankees trend

The Reds have covered the F5 Run Line in seven of their last nine games (+4.80 Units / 47% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Yankees.

How to watch Reds vs Yankees and game info

Reds vs Yankees latest injuries

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