Category: MLB

The Yankees initially decided to bring in Paul Goldschmidt ahead of the 2025 campaign to be their first baseman. Throughout the first couple months, the signing was a coup, as he hit a scalding .338/.394/.495 with a 148 wRC+. Plenty of folks in the Yankees’ orbit thought that he had found the Fountain of Youth. Come June, the worm turned, and it got ugly. Goldschmidt hit just .226/.277/.333 with a 69 wRC+ from that point on, ceding time at first to the emerging Ben Rice after manager Aaron Boone had to concede that the veteran was no longer an everyday bat.

Then, New York opted to bring back Goldschmidt for 2026, but this time, he came with a manual: Don’t play him absolutely every day, generally stick to southpaws, and the 38-year-old might actually remain a useful player all year. It’s obviously too early to tell whether that strategy will actually work, since it’s May, but the early returns are promising. The former MVP is enjoying an amazing start to the season.

As of now, Goldschmidt is slashing an excellent .284/.391/.581 with five home runs and a 172 wRC+ in 87 plate appearances. The sample is still very small, yes, but Goldy is absolutely locked in. He is even hitting holding his own against righties with a 93 wRC+ (compared to 74 last year), in addition to absolutely murdering lefties (231 wRC+).

Goldschmidt didn’t overhaul his swing or mechanics, but he is showing some elite underlying stats that suggest he can remain a productive offensive player for the Yankees as long as he is being used properly. His .631 expected slugging percentage is actually higher than his .581 SLG, and his xwOBA is a cool .448, even better than his .422 wOBA. His 19.3-percent barrel rate would actually be among the very best in the league if he were a qualified hitter.

Part of his success this year can be explained by the fact that Goldschmidt is swinging more often, particularly at the first pitch. His career first-pitch swing rate is 25.6 percent, and entering yesterday, it was at 38.6 this year, which would be a career-high. His swing percentage has gone from 47.8 percent last year (and 43 percent in his career as a whole) to 49.2 percent in 2026 through the start of play of Wednesday.

The extra aggressiveness has resulted in some loud and productive contact. Remember, some of the best pitches to hit are often the first few ones in an at-bat. Twice in the past couple weeks, the Yankees started him at leadoff against a southpaw, and he took the first pitch of the ballgame out, first against Baltimore’s Trevor Rogers and then off Toronto’s Patrick Corbin.

Additionally, a whopping 22.6 percent of Goldschmidt’s batted balls have been pulled in the air, by far a career-best and significantly higher than his 16.6 percent mark over his entire MLB tenure. It’s not a secret that pulling the ball in the air is directly correlated with power production, especially coupled with an elite 56.6 percent hard-hit rate. Now, will these trends last all of 2026? Probably not, but they’re more encouraging signals of future success than the out-of-character .382 BABIP that powered his sensational start to 2025.

More importantly, with Rice blossoming into a truly elite hitter and multiple All-Star-caliber outfielders, the Yankees can afford to keep Goldschmidt fresh while also giving him relevant playing time. It seems like the perfect formula to try and get the best out of him for the entire season. They might have to use him a little more in certain situations—like amid the current crunch with Giancarlo Stanton and Jasson Domínguez out while Trent Grisham also nurses a leg injury—but for the most part, they should be able to be selective. The man has played more games than anyone in baseball since the start of 2012 and could use the extra time off his feet.

At this moment in time, Goldschmidt deserves a lot of credit for being a key component of the Yankees’ offense. A 172 wRC+ approaching his 39th birthday in September is nothing to sneeze at, and while 83 plate appearances aren’t a whole lot, they are definitely not insignificant.

For whatever it’s worth—more so I suppose to roster construction under Hal Steinbrenner’s balance sheet than anyone else—the Yankees are getting considerable value for their buck, as Goldschmidt is playing on a $4 million salary in 2026. It’s not even June, and the veteran infielder has already been worth $8 million this year, according to FanGraphs. It’s not an exact science, but it’s already a good deal.

Again, Goldschmidt’s biggest challenge will be maintaining this production over the course of the entire year, or at least something close to this level. He is one of the most durable major leaguers in recent history, a pro’s pro with an impeccable work ethic and a desire to remain at the top, so he definitely has a chance to be a key contributor at very least.

Blisters might not seem like much from the outside, and to be clear those have a much better prognosis than, say, forearm or tricep soreness. That said, Edward Cabrera’s latest injury is a frustrating reminder that even something as small as a blister can have a big impact on a rotation held together with tape and prayers. One pitch into the fourth inning on Wednesday night at Wrigley Field, Edward Cabrera’s start was over, and more questions about the Cubs depleted pitching ranks are sure to follow.

A blister. On his right middle finger. Again.

Cabrera has a documented history of blister issues, including a spring training blister in 2025 that cost him the first two turns through the Marlins rotation last season. The Cubs knew this was part of the package when they traded for Cabrera in January.

Blisters are relatively minor issues. They’re not rotator cuffs. They’re not UCLs. They usually don’t require surgery or six-to-18 month timelines. However, for a pitcher, the blister is the exact point of contact between a finger and a baseball. It’s in a location that determines any number of things like spin rate, grip, and command. A blister on a pitcher’s middle finger, especially a pitcher like Cabrera, fundamentally alters the ability to execute pitches.

Manager Craig Counsell indicated it was an issue Cabrera has dealt with before:

“It’s something that he’s dealt with a little bit,” Counsell said. “It just got worse tonight — to the point where it was clearly affecting his command, as much as anything. We tried to do something after the third inning and it just didn’t work. You could tell. The first pitch could have told you he wasn’t going to be able to continue.”

Wednesday’s start against the Brewers was not Cabrera’s finest outing this season. He threw 3.0 innings giving up four runs (only one earned) on four hits while walking and striking out two batters. It’s possible something was off even before Cabrera left the game. He was talking with pitching coach Tommy Hottovy and the training staff in the bottom of the third, retreating to the dugout and then heading back out, which confirms that the Cubs were working on the issue before Cabrera left the game.

The glass half full read here is that Cabrera sounds confident about making his next start. Blisters can heal faster than structural injuries, and Cabrera has navigated this before.

However, the glass-half-empty read is that nothing feels good about the state of the Cubs rotation right now. Cade Horton is gone for the season following elbow surgery. Justin Steele suffered setback in his return from elbow surgery. Matthew Boyd is working his way back from knee surgery. Colin Rea and Ben Brown are already in the rotation, and if Cabrera were to miss any meaningful time the Cubs would need to look to Javier Assad or perhaps Doug Nikhazy, who the Cubs claimed off waivers from the White Sox in April, to make starts in the interim.

Blisters aren’t elbows. But on a rotation this depleted, even a minor detour feels like a five-alarm fire. The Cubs need Cabrera to be healthy and make as many starts as possible this season. That probably means taking the time to ensure this blister issue is dealt with in a way that won’t return later in the season.

They also need the baseball gods to stop testing them, just for a little while.

After a couple of feel-good wins in Miami, the Braves can take the four-game set with another victory on Thursday night. Ha-Seong Kim returns to the lineup, and Chadwick Tromp will make his first start of the year as the Braves take aim at Sandy Alcantara.

For the Marlins, it’s mostly a familiar set of faces at this point. Owen Caissie is still in the lineup after getting shaken up on Dominic Smith’s “triple” last night, so that’s good to see. This lineup is somewhat similar to the one the Marlins used when clobbering the Braves on Monday, though it features Christopher Morel over Connor Norby at first base, and has Caissie dropped down to seventh.

For both the Marlins (44 batting orders in 50 games coming into this one) and the Braves (37 in 50), this will be a novel lineup.

Only the first five guys in Miami’s order have ever faced Spencer Strider, and all have either two or three PAs against him. The combined line is a .212 wOBA and .287 xwOBA in 14 PAs, with all the good stuff coming from Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez, and everyone else not having anything positive to speak of yet.

For the Braves, it’s a completely different story given Alcantara’s durability and tenure. Everyone but Tromp has faced him at least once, with the head-to-head matchups ranging from 16 (Kim) to 51 (Ozzie Albies). It’s definitely kind of a mixed bag of performances, led by Ronald Acuña Jr. and Michael Harris, without a lot of other positives (though at least Albies has good results). Collectively, it’s a whopping 243 career PAs between this octet and Alcantara, with a collective .317 wOBA (eh) but a .281 xwOBA (bleh).

We’ll see what happens.

Game Summary

The Pirates re-asserted themselves today to take the game and series from St. Louis, somewhat returning the favor from the Cardinals recent visit to Pittsburgh. The Pirates took no quarter, outscoring the Cardinals 13-2 in the final two games of the set.

Dustin May and Braxton Ashcroft lead out in an early pitcher’s duel. Lowe and Herrera solo homeruns were the only early fireworks. May runs out of gas in the 6th and the deficit had built to 4-1 by the time Oli could get him out. The teams exchange late inning runs that do not alter the direction of the game. On the Pirate side, Ashcraft absolutely throttled the Cardinal offense, limiting them to 4 hits over 7 innings, with 9 K. Final score 6-2.

Pre-game notes

• The standard line-up with Pages catching and RHP on the mound, except Church is a late scratch, replaced by Fermin
• May on the mound for the Cardinals. Ashcraft for the Pirates.
• Recent articles decry the Cardinals loss of power. I think I’m more concerned about sinking OBP.

An early HR sets the tone

Brandon Lowe hits an oppo taco, right off the base of the foul pole. Seems like the shortest homerun distance possible in Busch Stadium. Ruled out-of-the-park by the umpires, could also have been an inside-the-park homerun as ruled by the Official Scorer. TBD. Otherwise, Dustin May started out sharp, with several early K’s and very under control pitch count. He benefits from the Pirates get-away day offensive approach, too.

On the Cardinals side, the offensive swoon continues, aided by a sharp Braxton Ashcraft, who matches May’s sharpness. It is, of course, a day game, which seems to enhance the offensive doldrums for this team.

The middle innings mostly quiet for both teams

In the third, Herrera provides very brief respite from his extended slump with a well-struck solo HR, tying the game 1-1. The Pirates small ball a run in the 4th to retake the lead. Single. Force-out. Stolen base. Single and another force out results in a run. The Cardinals are having a hard time keeping Griffin off base, although most of his batted balls have not left the infield this series.

The Pirates extend the lead

May seems to hit a wall in the 6th inning at around 80 pitches. Starting (as it so often does) with a walk. Followed by a Griffin double, then a two-run single by Ozuna, then another single by Mangum. May’s day is done. 4 runs in 5.1 IP. Graceffo again throws 1 pitch, gets a GIDP to end the uprising. Echoes of Seth Maness.

Bruihl gets tagged for a first pitch HR by slugger Henry Davis as he takes over in the 7th. That was a sign of things to come, as Cruz follows with a double, Lowe singles, and (who else?) Reynolds drives him in, extending the lead to 6-1. Svanson replaced Bruihl, and like Graceffo, threw one pitch to get out of the inning. Svanson worked the 8th uneventfully as well.

The bitter end

The Cardinals string a couple hits together in the 8th to cut the deficit on an RBI single by Jordan Walker but can’t extend the rally beyond.

Pushard closes down the 9th, but the Cardinals can’t muster any late inning heroics against Mason Montgomer, and fall 6-2.

Post-Game Notes

• Check out Today on the Farm – Thursday 5/21 for updates on MiLB action. More news on Nootbaar there.
• One thing is for certain. The Pirates can pitch.
• In this series, the Cardinals had a heckuva time with the bottom of the Pirates order. Those guys got 14 hits the last two games of this series, providing most of their spark.
• The Pirates choices on ASB challenges were interesting. They seemed to want to challenge early and often, resulting in them not having remaining challenges late in games. The early challenges were often low leverage (early in counts, no runners on), and most did not involve their catchers (and often unsuccessful). Surprised they haven’t cleaned that up. I see that as a reflection on the manager. Does he dismiss the value of ASB challenges? Is he not providing strategic direction to the players?
• One of the things I question … Pages is clearly physically compromised. I don’t know why they insist on having guys play through injury, especially when there are viable alternatives.
• I expect a roster change before tomorrow.

OUR STARTING ROTATION CANNOT BE STOPPED! GUARDIANS WIN 3-1 TO COMPLETE THE FOUR-GAME SERIES (A MOP)!

PATRICK BAILEY IS A CHALLENGE SAVANT!

HE ALSO HIT A HOME RUN WHICH IS WILD!

ROCCHIO, SCHNEEMANN AND JOSE TOUCHED MIZE, LOOK AT GOD

HERRIN SCARES ME BUT THE REST OF THE BULLPEN B GROUP WAS GREAT TODAY!

THAT’S HOW TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A BANGED UP DETROIT TEAM! THREE MORE WINS TO TAKE THE SEASON SERIES!

The fourth game of the Tigers’ miserable series against the Guardians kicked off this afternoon and the best thing I can say about this series is that it’s almost over. The other positive was that Casey Mize was on the mound for the Tigers, up against Joey Cantillo for the Guardians. The Tigers learned a harsh lesson in this series that a one-run lead is not enough to get the job done, so they’d be hunting for runs today, but that hunt has been going on all season, so we shall see.

Mize started the game strong, looking sharp as he got Cleveland out in order. The Tigers made a valiant effort to score early in the first, with a one-out single from Kevin McGonigle, followed by a double from Dillon Dingler. Then, with two outs, Jahmai Jones walked to load the bases, but the RISP curse runs deepn with this team and they were all left stranded.

In the second, Mize carried the weight of the club, once again getting the Guardians out in order. In the home half, Zack Short got a one-out single, but the Tigers weren’t able to bring him home.

The lack of runs on the Tigers’ part came back to bite them early. With two outs, Brayan Rocchio doubled, and right behind him, Daniel Schneeman doubled as well, bringing in the first run of the game. A Jose Ramirez single then brought Schneeman in. Mize was able to cut it off at two. In the bottom of the inning, McGonigle got a leadoff walk, but three outs followed.

In the fourth, the Guardians went 1-2-3. Unfortunately, in the bottom of the inning, so did the Tigers.

With two outs in the fifth, Rocchio struck again with another double. He was left stranded, though, thanks to some really quality pitching today from Mize. In the bottom of the inning, Matt Vierling got a one-out walk, but he would be the only Tigers baserunner for the inning.

Mize continued to grind in the sixth, getting the Guardians out in order, and man it’s so nice to see a healthy Casey Mize doing his thing. In the home half, Cantillo was done after two outs, being replaced by Matt Festa who came in and gave up a single to Spencer Torkelson. The Tigers didn’t manage to take advantage of it, though, and left the inning scoreless.

After two outs in the seventh, Mize was done, replaced by Burch Smith. Mize’s great outing, marred only by the two runs early on, had a final line of 6.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, o BB, 4 K on 95 pitches. Would love to see this Mize more, and with run support. Smith got the final out of the inning. The Guardians dipped back into their pen as well, for Shawn Armstrong. A pinch-hitting Colt Keith came in and took a leadoff walk. Armstrong faced the minimum before being replaced by Tim Herrin who got the final out of the inning.

Patrick Bailey opened the eighth inning with a solo home run, his first with the Guardians this season. Rocchio then singled, having himself a really strong game. Schneeman then walked. Smith was replaced by Enmanuel De Jesus. With two outs, Rocchio stole third, but the Guardians weren’t able to add to their lead. The Tigers, however, decided to finally get something going in the home half, as Dillon Dingler started the inning with a solo home run. With one out, Cleveland dipped back into their bullpen for Codi Heuer, who got the final two outs of the inning.

The Guardians went down in order in the top of the ninth. The Tigers needed a comeback and they’d have to do it against Hunter Gaddis. After two outs, Zach McKinstry singled into right to keep the inning alive, but it wasn’t enough to get a win, and the Tigers were swept in the four-game series against their divison rivals.

Final: Guardians 3, Tigers 1

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Read on to see why with my Blue Jays vs. Yankees predictions and MLB Picks tonight.

Blue Jays vs Yankees predictions

Blue Jays vs Yankees best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+130)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a hit in three of his last four games, and a matchup against Carlos Rodon should give him confidence to stay consistent in the batter's box tonight.

He’s 11-for-18 with five extra-base hits and a 1.807 OPS against Rodon with five additional walks. 

Furthermore, Rodon has had a tough start this season with a 5.63 ERA, allowing five runs in just eight innings of work.

The Yankees veteran is also throwing his four-seamer at a 40% rate, which plays into Vladdy’s strengths, who owns a .333 average and a .500 slug against the pitch.

COVERS INTEL: Guerrero owns a .303 career batting average with a .974 OPS at Yankee Stadium.

Blue Jays vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)

Dalton Varsho is riding a five-game hit streak with 10 total in that stretch. He’s also 3-for-8 with a .944 career OPS against Rodon. I’ll add Varsho to go Over 0.5 hits tonight. 

Rodon is still trying to find his footing after missing the first six weeks of the season. He’s winless with a 5.63 ERA, allowing 2+ runs per start. He also owns a career 4.72 ERA against Toronto, allowing an .836 opponent OPS. I think the Jays find a way to put up runs tonight and take Over 1.5 earned runs for Rodon.

Blue Jays vs Yankees SGP

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
• Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 hits
• Carlos Rodon Over 1.5 earned runs

Blue Jays vs Yankees home run pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+475)

This will be a half-unit wager as Rodon doesn’t allow hard contact and has yet to allow a homer through two outings this season.

However, Guerrero has had Rodon’s number throughout his career with a pair of homers and five total extra-base hits in 18 plate appearances, posting a 1.807 OPS against him. 

Blue Jays vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Toronto +125 | New York -145
• Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-160) | New York -1.5 (+140)
• Over/Under: Over 8 (-120) | Under 8 (+100)

Blue Jays vs Yankees trend

The Blue Jays have stayed Under their team total in 16 of their last 24 road games for +7.40 units and a 24% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Yankees.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Yankees and game info

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Let’s be so honest – would you even believe the Atlanta Braves had the best record in baseball if you’d been told that both Sean Murphy and reigning NL Rookie of the Year Drake Baldwin were on the IL at the same time?

For eight glorious days we had our elite catching tandem, arguably the best in the league. And now, as respectfully as I can say it, we are rocking with Sandy León and Chadwick Tromp.

The next-man-up mentality and depth has been very important to AA and the Braves, particularly this season. It’s been tested a fair bit and we haven’t even flipped the calendar to June. 

To replenish the catching options in Triple-A, the Braves have claimed Maverick Handley off of waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. He’s been up with the O’s twice this season and his singular PA this season came on May 16 versus the Nationals before he was DFA’d on May 19. In the 2025 season in which he debuted, he had 41 ABs in 16 games, slashing .073/.133/ 0.73.

The corresponding move is Hurston Waldrep (loose bodies) moving to the 60-day IL. Last we heard, he had begun throwing bullpens in Florida, but no timetable on rehab. They were targeting June for game action but it’s looking things are still on track for #64 and his road back to the Braves.

These Nats just continue to score runs in bunches. Last night, they put 8 on the board in a comfortable win over the Mets. Offensive performances like the one from last night just seem to be par for the course right now. Hopefully they can keep it up with a chance to get over .500 today.

The Nats have the same lineup as last night. However, there is one position tweak. Daylen Lile and James Wood are switching spots. Wood will be out in left field, while Lile will be the DH. Otherwise, it is exactly the same as last night, which is a rare occurrence under Blake Butera. Cade Cavalli will take the ball, and he is coming off a strong outing against the O’s.

The Mets are making a couple changes to their lineup. Luis Torrens will be back behind the plate, replacing Hayden Senger. MJ Melendez is the DH again, but he is moving down to the 8 hole. Besides that, it is mostly the same faces as we have seen the past few days. David Peterson has been pitching behind an opener a lot lately, but today he will get the ball from the start.

Game Info:

Stadium: Nationals Park

Time: 4:05 PM EST

TV: Nationals.TV

Radio: 106.7 The Fan

There could be some rain in the area, but hopefully it stays away until the game is over. This is a big chance for the Nats to make a statement to finish off a successful home stand. The offense is raking and this team has been so much fun to watch. Follow along in the comments down below and let’s go Nats!

Buster Posey shares honest self-evaluation in rough second season leading Giants originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area

The Giants’ 2026 MLB season has gotten off to a less than impressive start, as San Francisco is 20-30 and fourth in the NL West.

President of baseball operations Buster Posey has had to answer for the struggles, as well as some questionable strategic decisions. He joined KNBR on Thursday and discussed how he would grade his tenure in his season-plus at the helm.

“If we’re going based on wins and losses, not very well,” Posey, who was hired by the Giants for his current role following the 2024 season, said. “But I do believe there’s hope with what we’ve got going on in our farm system right now. There’s a lot of exciting players. Hopefully we’re going to add some more here during the draft.”

The Giants boast five players in Baseball America’s top-100 list with an array of talent positioned from Rookie ball up to the majors.

However, at the major league level, San Francisco has struggled mightily as of late. The Giants are 2-6 over their last eight games and are 11 games back from the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers in the division and 8 1/2 games back from the third Wild Card spot.

“Baseball is a fickle thing,” Posey added. “Hopefully next time we’re on here, we’re talking about a lot more positive things, and I believe that’s a real possibility.

“All you can do is keep going … because sports is the ultimate meritocracy.”

It’s still early in the season with more than 100 games left to play, but Posey has been around the league long enough to know that at the end of the day, results are truly all that matters.

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Checking in on Kristian Campbell: What's his path back to Boston? originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

WORCESTER — Entering last season, the Boston Red Sox’ future looked bright with the “Big Three” of Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, and Kristian Campbell. Now, there’s a real chance we’ll never see the trio play in a big-league game together.

After soaring through the minor league ranks, Campbell was the first of the three to crack Boston’s roster. He made the Opening Day squad and signed an eight-year, $60 million contract extension just one week later. Two and a half months after that, Campbell was sent back down to Triple-A Worcester. He hasn’t returned to the majors since, and his path back to Boston is anything but clear.

After winning the American League Rookie of the Month award for March/April, Campbell became a liability both at the plate and defensively at second base. Over his last 35 games (130 at-bats), he slashed .154/.236/.215 with two homers and nine RBI. He posted -9 Outs Above Average during his brief MLB stint.

Campbell’s struggles at second prompted the organization to move him to the outfield. He has played 14 games in right field, 11 in left, seven in center, and five as a designated hitter so far this season with the WooSox. He’s taking the switch in stride.

“It’s been good. Defense has been going well in the outfield,” Campbell told NBC Sports Boston. “I’ve been playing all three different positions each and every day, so it’s been a work in progress.

“Offensively, I feel good, too. Just trying to put up good at-bats each and every day, get used to some of the new changes I made, and just keep going on from there.”

While Campbell has shown flashes of his high upside this season in Worcester, he still hasn’t produced the offensive numbers that made him arguably the most exciting prospect in Boston’s pipeline. Through 38 games this season, he has posted a modest .254/.367/.348 slash line with seven doubles, two homers, and 18 RBI. He has 51 strikeouts and 24 walks in 169 plate appearances.

Still, the biggest roadblock on his path back to Boston is his switch to the outfield. The Red Sox have a logjam at the position with Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Masataka Yoshida each taking up spots.

“It’s not really my problem to worry about, to be honest,” Campbell said of the logjam. “I just worry about what I have to do here to get better each and every day and worry about myself, really. That’s really it. Let everything figure itself out.”

Perhaps Campbell would benefit from a change of scenery. The problem is, it’s unlikely the Red Sox will find a club willing to take on his contract at this point. The Georgia Tech product is essentially in baseball purgatory, and that’s a real disappointment for those who watched Campbell dominate at every minor league level in 2024.

As disappointing as it’s been, there’s still a chance Campbell returns to form. He turns just 24 next month, and he never got a real chance to settle in during his rapid ascension. In hindsight, it was a mistake to promote him after only 40 games in High-A, 56 games in Double-A, and 19 games in Triple-A in 2024.

For what it’s worth, Mayer and Anthony also have yet to live up to their lofty expectations in the majors. Mayer has excelled defensively but underwhelmed at the plate with a .638 OPS through 88 games. Anthony has put up solid numbers when healthy, but he suffered a season-ending oblique injury last year and has missed time because of back and wrist ailments this season.

The shortcomings of Campbell and the “Big Three” serve as a cautionary tale for prospect hype. Fortunately for them, time remains on their side.

Mets lineup

1. Carson Benge – RF
2. Bo Bichette – SS
3. Juan Soto – LF
4. Mark Vientos – 1B
5. Brett Baty – 3B
6. Marcus Semien – 2B
7. A.J. Ewing – CF
8. MJ Melendez – DH
9. Luis Torrens – C

SP: David Peterson (LHP)

Nationals lineup

1. James Wood – LF
2. Curtis Mead – 3B
3. Andrés Chaparro – 1B
4. CJ Abrams – SS
5. Dylan Crews – RF
6. Daylen Lile – DH
7. Jacob Young – CF
8. Nasim Nuñez – 2B
9. Keibert Ruiz – C

SP: Cade Cavalli (RHP)

Broadcast info

First pitch: 4:05 PM EDT
TV: SNY
Radio: Audacy Mets Radio WHSQ 880AM, Audacy App, 92.3 HD2

It was the type of start we’ve come to expect from Aaron Nola.

First inning, we see vintage Nola. Pinpoint command. Two strikeouts. A 1-2-3 opener. The type of beginning that makes you remember why the Phillies signed the veteran right-hander to a seven-year, $172 million contract before the start of the 2024 season.

Then, as if that dominant first inning never happened, it all fell apart.

The second inning starts with a line drive double, then a line drive single, then a ground ball double down the right field line to score a run. Nola records two outs and then allows the hit that turns what could have been an inning with minimal damage into one with a crooked number, a line drive single that scores two.

The third inning would feature two more singles, although neither player scored. In the fourth? A leadoff triple that smacked off the center field wall followed by an out and then another line drive, RBI single to plate the Reds’ fourth run.

After a clean fifth, Nola was done. His final line read: 5 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 0 BB and 5 Ks.

This has been the norm. Through 10 starts, his ERA is 6.04. His fielding independent pitching (FIP) is 4.48. Neither number is good.

These are also not new numbers. In 17 starts last season, the EAR was 6.01. Among 144 starters with at least 100 innings pitched since the beginning of last year, Nola’s 6.02 ERA ranks 141st.

Aaron Nola has been one of baseball’s most ineffective pitchers since the start of the 2025 season.

He is scheduled to make $24.5 million each of the next five seasons, including this one. He is no longer expected to be a top-of-the-rotation starter, but there should be an expectation that he would not be one of the very worst pitchers in the sport.

There are any number of reasons why Nola is struggling, but it all starts with the fastball.

If Nola is not going to be able to throw his fastball, especially in fastball counts, he’s going to have to learn to feature his secondary pitches exclusively and use his fastball more sparingly. He’s already throwing it less (27.5) than he ever has. Manager Don Mattingly talked about Nola needing to learn to “pitch backwards,” but noted there is no one single flip that can be switched.

Catcher J.T. Realmuto feels Nola is simply not executing his pitches. The problem with Nola is that he absolutely cannot, under any circumstances, leave anything out over the middle of the plate. There is zero margin for error. And now, as noted by On Pattison’s Tim Kelly, it’s possible the new ABS system may be taking away Nola’s penchant for getting balls just off the plate called for strikes in the past.

It’s certainly an interesting thought.

Regardless, Nola is at a crossroads. There is simply no world where he can continue to pitch like this.

The hope is pitching coach Caleb Cotham and Nola can sit down in their pitching lab and cook up some ideas on how to fix Nola’s fastball. That’s easier said than done.

The more likely answer is that Nola may simply be cooked. And it would be understandable if he is, even as he approaches his 33rd birthday next month.

From 2017-2024, no pitcher in baseball threw more innings (1432.2) than Aaron Nola. That is an enormous workload, one that pitchers through the 1980s routinely piled up, but not so much in this era of baseball.

The problem is, there are five years left, counting 2026, on Nola’s free agent contract. So, what are the Phillies’ options?

While the Phils showed a willingness to eat some money by releasing Taijuan Walker last month, he was on the final year of his $18 million a year deal. Nola is due another $98 million after this season. That’s too much for any team to eat.

He cannot be traded. He has full 10-5 trade rights (10 years in the Majors and at least five years with his current team), and not only is it highly unlikely there would be another team willing to deal for him, it’s just as unlikely Nola would agree to a trade.

He cannot be optioned to the minors without his approval. Now, other veteran pitchers who were out of options have agreed to minor league demotions during times of struggle. In 2008, Brett Myers agreed to pitch in AAA for a few weeks to get things right. When he returned, he was a dominant force that helped the Phils win a World Series title. Would Nola be willing to do something similar if things don’t change?

The only other option is to send him to the bullpen. But without any logical replacements in AAA or AA as of yet, and the trade deadline still more than two months away, the only recourse the Phillies have is to send him out there every fifth day and hope he and Cotham can figure something out.

Nola’s stuff is good enough that he should be better than this. A pitcher of his talent, even with all those innings and a declining fastball, should be better than an ERA over 6.00.

Everyone will just have to grin and bear it for now. And hope Nola rights the ship.

Listen to more of my thoughts on Nola as well as the Phillies’ series loss to the Reds on the latest Hittin’ Season podcast, powered by WHYY!

Mets manager Carlos Mendoza spoke with reporters ahead of Thursday's series finale against the Nationals in Washington. D.C.

Here are the highlights...

Kodai Senga starting road back

Senga, who has been on the IL since April 28 while dealing with lumbar spine inflammation, is beginning a rehab assignment.

The right-hander will start for A-level St. Lucie on Friday, with the expectation that he'll throw roughly 50-to-60 pitches.

Before he landed on the IL, the situation with Senga in the rotation had become untenable, with him being unable to pitch more than 3.1 innings in any of his last three starts.

While Senga has been out, the Mets have lost Clay Holmes to a long-term fibula injury, which conceivably changes the calculus regarding the plan for Senga once he's activated.

New York's rotation currently consists of Nolan McLean, Freddy Peralta, and Christian Scott, with David Peterson also factoring in every fifth day and rookie Zach Thornton in the rotation on a start-to-start basis. Jonah Tong, who has been with Triple-A Syracuse all season, is in consideration to come up to pitch this weekend against the Marlins in Miami. 

As far as Senga, the Mets could theoretically move him to the bullpen when he returns, but that seems like a very poor fit given his routines. 

A.J. Minter might have just one more hurdle

Minter's return could be imminent.

Following back-to-back appearances for Triple-A Syracuse on Tuesday and Wednesday, Minter is set to pitch again for Syracuse on Saturday. If all goes well, Minter could be activated following that outing.

Minter missed most of last season after needing surgery for a torn left lat muscle.

His return would give the Mets another option at the back end of the bullpen, and could potentially put the roster spot of the struggling Craig Kimbrel in jeopardy.

Jared Young feeling good

Young, who is in the middle of a rehab assignment with Syracuse, feels good physically, with Mendoza noting that it is now a matter of getting his timing down.

The left-handed hitter excelled for New York earlier this season, hitting .350/.391/.450 in 23 plate appearances over 11 games.