Happy Friday, everyone. The Cubs are back home tonight and looking to keep the good times rolling, and with the struggling Mets coming to town, they might just get their wish. In the meantime, we’ll take a look at what’s happening around baseball. The top stories of the continuing trend of teams extending their breakout rookies, as the Tigers sign Kevin McGonigle to a monster eight-year extension worth $150 million. His (also rich) teammate, Tarik Skubal, teased McGonigle in a press conference, asking if the rookie would be treating the boys to dinner in Boston.
We also look at the thrilling resurgence of Mike Trout, who had an unreal series against the Yankees, and is reminding everyone of the Mike Trout of old, something I think all baseball fans can enjoy. And one Mariners reporter is getting a lot of heat online for trying to use AI to help her craft her questions.
There’s also an updated starting pitcher ranking to look at, while the Rockies are just trying to keep drones out of their airspace.
Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas speaks at a press conference on Friday, Jan. 23, 2025. (Emily Curiel/Kansas City Star/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
The Kansas City Royals are 7-12 and just lost a heartbreaker to the Detroit Tigers on Thursday afternoon. Despite that, I imagine that there were still plenty of smiles at 1 Royal Way yesterday after the KCMO City Council passed a stadium financing ordinance that could provide up to $600 million for the construction of a new stadium in the “Washington Square Park/Crown Center area.” The vote passed 11-1-1. This vote was a big step for KCMO to keep the Royals in the city, but it’s just a step with more to come. This legislation authorizes KCMO City Manager Mario Vasquez to officially start negotiating with the Royals, as we see in Section 3 of the bill:
Section 3. That the City Manager is hereby directed to negotiate, in coordination with the appropriate agencies, a comprehensive lease and a comprehensive development agreement with the Kansas City Royals organization, developers, city incentive agencies, and other relevant parties for the development of a new stadium and team offices in the Washington Square Park/Crown Center area.
Kansas City Star reporter Dylan Lysen wrote a quality article on what this does and does not mean, and what steps are next:
It mostly sets up a general framework and roadmap for city officials to reach agreements with the Royals and other government agencies who would all be involved in bringing the stadium to life.
Getting the project any further along will not only require buy-in from the team and the state, but the City Council will also still need to approve any funding promises, a lease and other details at a later date before construction can begin.
The Royals seem pleased with the vote; they released a statement stating:
The Royals remain grateful for the work and attention of local leaders. We respect the process, which includes the City Council and Parks Board consideration, and the City Manager’s presentation of a term sheet for review and negotiation, with a long-term vision that we expect to include one of the largest private investments in Kansas City history. As always, our motivation is to find the best solution for our team, our fans, and our community. We’re excited by the possibilities this opportunity presents for our hometown
The team’s success in local politics did not translate on to the field, as the team lost 10-9 in a walk-off in Detroit. Lucas Erceg, who blew the save in the ninth inning, shouldered the blame for the loss:
“We finally turn the corner, and I just come out and blow the lead like that and lose the game. So, I feel like this loss is on me. But, then again, there’s always tomorrow. And I’m going to be ready for tomorrow. I hope that I’m in the same situation tomorrow night and get back to winning.”
For something more positive, Kiri Oler referenced a piece of literature I’d never heard of breakdown of Seth Lugo’s pitches that was way above my head but still an enjoyable read:
In defense of the hitters, Lugo gives them a complicated set of variables to consider during the small window of time allotted for a swing decision. He’s got seven(ish) pitches to his name, and they all make an essential contribution to who he is as a pitcher.
Maybe the Royals can channel the power of Mike Trout when they face the New York Yankees this weekend. The slugger hit his fifth home-run in the four game series at New York on Thursday.
Old friend Mark Canha has asked to be released by the Texas Rangers so he can pursue big league opportunities with another team.
Old friend Richard Lovelady has been acquired by the Washington Nationals from the New York Mets.
The San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds had their benches clear after the final out of the Giants 3-0 victory.
The San Diego Padres could be sold as early as next week that could approach a record $3.5 billion.
Kansas City Chiefs general manager Brett Veach expects a lot of trades during the 2026 NFL Draft.
SAN FRANCISCO, CA - MARCH 25: A general view of the field during the game between the New York Yankees and the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on Wednesday, March 25, 2026 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Good morning, baseball fans!
The San Francisco Giants are on the road again this weekend, so we’re going to do another temp check. Which is maybe not ideal timing after the week that was, but I feel like they could maybe benefit from the feedback of the fanbase at this point.
This team is not fun to watch and the season has only just barely begun. I’d like to say “small sample size” but this is just about exactly what I expected from them this year given the lack of any significant improvements over the off-season and the seemingly delusional way in which they view themselves as being competitive in a division that has long since left them behind.
As someone with tickets to a game next weekend, if it weren’t for the special event taking place at said game, I would absolutely be considering donating my tickets. It’s a lot to ask from fans to fork out the money for tickets, food, and (in the case of non-local fans) transportation and lodging to watch…this. Especially given the astronomical rise in prices for everything under the sun at the moment.
And listen, I’m not asking for the moon. I know they are highly unlikely to catch up to the Los Angeles Dodgers any time soon. And that’s okay. Not in my heart, but in my brain. I get that that is how it goes sometimes.
But I would ask that they at least be honest with the fans. Admit that they’re in a period of development or rebuilding or whatever, and then actually commit to that. I can respect that. I can even enjoy that. There is a lot of fun to be had in terrible baseball. I should know! I started covering this team in the second half of 2016 after all, when they were constantly discovering new and demoralizing ways to lose games.
But you know the expression “don’t spit on my leg and tell me it’s raining?” Well, don’t tell us you’re fielding a competitive baseball team with playoff ambitions and then send the circus out onto the field. It’s insulting to the intelligence of everyone involved and sucks any fun that could possibly be had out of the equation.
What time do the Giants play today?
The Giants begin their three-game road series against the Washington Nationals this afternoon at 3:45 p.m. PT.
It still seems too early to engage in small sample size theater on the Cardinals season. If I’m going to do SSS, this is my choice of topic.
It seems like pre-Arbitration extensions are all the rage this year. Some people look at these deals as a little on the reckless side. They ask, “How can team sign a guy to a $100m guaranteed contract when he hasn’t even taken a single MLB at bat?”. Good question.
Yet, teams are doing these deals. Smart people are convincing rich owners that these investments are good bets. Not just one or two rogue groups, either. What makes them think PreArb extensions are such a smart thing to do? As is my want, I dive into the numbers and see if I can discern what they’ve figured out.
Some notes about contracts
Contracts that guarantee money beyond one year pretty much come in three forms:
Contract extensions during the arbitration years (think Garret Crochet, et. al.)
Contract extensions during the pre-arb years (Griffin, McGonigle and company).
Each of these classes has their own pattern of contract. I am only looking at contract extensions for players that either haven’t been through the Arbitration process or haven’t signed a contract that avoids an Arbitration hearing. I got my data from Cots Contracts and double-checked with Sportrac. I limited my research to post-COVID, recognizing the evolving dynamics of baseball’s economy.
The economics of baseball – the value of WAR on the open market
One commonly discussed reference point is the notion that a WAR has a value of around $8m on the open market. It pops up frequently, although it is hard to find any concrete examples of 1 WAR players getting $8m contracts, so I’m a bit skeptical. A more up-to-date outline is found in a recent Fangraphs article by Ben Clemons. Highly summarizing a thorough article, he breaks this up into tiers:
Tier
Player
Avg $ per WAR
1
0-1 WAR
$6.75m
2
1-2 WAR
$8.5m
3
Over 2 WAR
$12.8m
Produced by VEB alumni Ben Clemons
Let’s compare and contrast two recent FA contracts using this rule of thumb. First, we have Shohei Ohtani’s mega-deal. $700m contract. 10 years. $70m AAV. If I apply the MLB approved discount factor of 4.43% to get the net present value of that $700m, and then peanut butter that NPV figure over the expected WAR the Dodgers could expect from Ohtani (with relevant decline factors appropriate for high WAR players), you end up a cool $10m per WAR (rounded). Interesting. Right between Tier 2 and Tier 3. I do not think of Ohtani as a player who fits between Tiers 2 and 3.
Second, we have Alex Bregman’s contract. $175m contract. 5 years. $35m AAV. Do all the same math with the same methods to get projected WAR and the NPV of the contract value and you end up with a annual per WAR cost of $14.2m rounded.
So, how does Ohtani getting $10m per WAR compare to Bregman getting $14.2m per WAR? Seems backwards in a way, given the players. And neither figure compares all that great with the Tier 3 amount of $12.8m per WAR.
An alternative way to compare contracts
A reference point I propose is that the open market cost of WAR is better expressed by the combination of contract length and the value of the contract in net present value terms (often very different than the headlines).
Try this, using the Bregman/Ohtani example:
Ohtani 10yrs/$388m (NPV)
Bregman 5yrs/$160m (NPV)
That seems more like it. This view will help us understand all these extension a fair bit better than looking at $ per WAR. At least, that is what I’m proposing.
Some more about baseball economics – net present value
One thing about that seemingly outrageous $700m Ohtani contract. It’s not really $700m in today’s terms. A lot of his money will be paid in the 2040’s. When you factor in the equivalent value of those dollars in today’s terms, his total contract value (in NPV) is more like $388m. That’s a bit different than $700m. Using NPV allows us to compare contracts, smoothing out the impact of deferrals, bonuses and different contract start and end dates.
Some complexity arises when trying to compare these FA contracts with PreArb Extensions
A key consideration in this analysis is that the pre-arb contracts players and teams are entering into aren’t really open market free agent contracts. There is no bidding, which ostensibly suppresses the contract values. I end up using the FA contracts as the end-points which help identify why teams do these pre-arb extensions.
Another challenge is that projectable WAR for a player who hasn’t taken a PA in the major leagues has a great deal more variability. Injury risk aside, Ohtani’s general WAR projection is remarkably stable looking when compared with, say, Colt Emerson. Ergo, per WAR $$ estimations are highly variable.
Are the number of Pre-Arb extensions unusual this year?
I’ve seen some folks speculate teams are doing these deals as some form of hedge against the upcoming CBA drama. Since 2021, I show teams have entered into 42 pre-arb extensions. Approximately 7 per year. How many have occurred this year? Seven, including the reported McGonigle deal. Not exactly a stampede, huh?
What do Pre-Arb deals look like?
As one looks across the spectrum of pre-Arb deals that have been done, they carry some pretty strikingly similar characteristics. Almost like there is a playbook on this.
The most common age for signing is age 24.
Position players get more of these than pitchers do by a 2:1 ratio.
The pitchers that get these extensions tend to be at the higher end of the age range, and tend to get the lower end of the length of contract (and dollars).
The usual baseball premiums apply. Uber-talented shortstops and heavy hitting outfielders make the coin. Relievers are the street sweepers.
Most pre-arb extensions carry through 1 or 2 years of the players’ Free Agency eligibility (except pitchers).
Most extensions come with 1 or 2 club options, with very minimal buyouts.
Extensions with player options are reserved for the cream of the crop (JRod, Witt).
Bonuses and deferrals are comparatively minor consideration is these contracts.
Interpreting the Chart
This chart displays both FA contracts and Pre-Arb Extensions. Each contract is a point on the chart. All values are NPV, so effectively in 2025 dollar terms. I omitted low dollar, low length FA contracts (think: Ramon Urias of the Cardinals). The comparison I’m after is top FA to top prospects getting PreArb extensions.
The red points are the FA contracts. Size of the dots represents the total NPV value of the contract. Ohtani and Soto get the biggest dots. They have the biggest contracts.
The blue points are PreArb extensions signed after 2020. Witt’s deal stands out. Good one?
The x-axis displays the guaranteed length of the contract (omits options) and the y-axis plots the AAV of said contract in NPV terms.
What is with that arc drawn in the middle?
This arc illustrates the natural break between outlier players and everyone else. FA contracts for Tucker, Soto, Guerrero Jr, and Ohtani. PreArb extensions for Witt, JRod, Tatis and Franco. Those are the outliers, both in terms of player and in terms of contracts.
Three common factors to consider with the outlier contracts:
The contracts are for generational talents and are somewhat unique.
The AAV of the PreArb Extension for similar outlier prospects is significantly lower than the FA deals.
The length of contracts, however, are comparable.
In the end, what we see with this small sample is: PreArb extension allow the home team the opportunity to lock in years of a generational talent, without taking the financial hit or risk that comes with the FA contract. While the risk the player doesn’t meet those projected heights is present, the dollar risk is comparatively low. As you probably know without looking at FanGraphs, the teams that entered these 4 PreArb Extensions pretty much got it right, talent-wise.
What about inside the arc?
These contracts are for stars (or projected stars), but not generational talents. Hopefully, I don’t have to explain the difference.
When I look at the contracts in this group as a whole, without seeing names, I notice some similarities:
The contracts inside the arc are not so unique. Almost cookie cutter.
The AAV of the PreArb Extension is significantly lower than the deals for similar star free agents.
The length of FA and PreArb contracts are comparable, with FA skewing a little shorter. This makes sense given FA contracts are paying for decline years.
What do these contracts accomplish?
For the team, the contracts introduce a notable cost reduction and additional years of control over an emerging star player.
The way I think of it is … for most situations, a team expects to have player control for 6 years. Three years at right around major league minimum at $780,000/yr. Three years will be arbitration awards based, either through hearings or negotiations. Then they lose the player to free agency. If they want to retain some value from the player, they end up trading him prior to the Free Agency, shortening the time they extract value, and the time they lose is often the most productive portion of that player’s career (ie. the prime years). Think of the Nats trading Soto at ~4.5 years of service time.
For a player with a pre-Arb extension, the team accelerates earnings for the player. First year payments (including bonus money) average around $3.5m, a fair bit more than MLB minimum. The contracts mirror the significant bumps for the years the player would be in Arbitration but remove the obstacle of going through the Arbitration process, which can be … divisive, and removes the whole “platform year” variable for both player and team. For the “bought out” FA years, the contract sees another bump, but typically not as astronomical as what Free Agents see between their last year of Arb and first year of Free Agency.
How do these contracts compare to normal Free Agent contracts?
If you think of the extreme examples (Soto, Ohtani), there is the simple reality that most teams can’t swim in this end of the pool. They don’t have either the capital or the stomach for the risk associated with that kind of contract. Even with less extreme examples (Tucker, Bregman, Bichette) teams are going to experience very high AAV or longer than desired length. Either way, the total out-go is too much for many teams to stomach, particularly as they look at the out-years and realize they will be paying premium dollars for a player well past his prime. How do we think Machado’s contract will look at age 39?
What makes these Pre-Arb contracts smart?
These represent the best alterative to keeping the best players without swimming in the deepest end of the risk pool called Free Agency.
For both FA and PreARb, pitchers and position players have different WAR ranges and get paid differently for that WAR. Of recent FA contracts, the highest position player contract runs just over $14m per expected WAR. That is for a 4-5 WAR player. Teams can buy down that high WAR figure by extending the contract. For example, Ohtani’s NPV $$ per WAR is slightly under $10m/WAR. But the Dodgers had to commit $700m to get to that figure. They did it with years.
The key is the AAV and length. $140m for 9 years (Griffin) is a fair bit different than $700m for 10 years (Ohtani), especially for those teams where $700m is unreachable. What the Pre-Arb deal does is give that small- or mid-market team access to a player they think might be that same top 10th or 20th percentile class as an Ohtani or Soto or Bregman or Tucker. Plus the term of the contract is generally aligned with the players ascension years, whereas a FA contract is generally aligned with a players decline years.
The risk, of course, is higher that Griffin will fail to perform as envisioned that it is Ohtani. We know what Ohtani is, even with projected decline.
A Pre-Arb extension to a guy like Konnor Griffin makes sense if a team thinks they can get at least 1-2 WAR out of him for the 9 years. 2 WAR * 9 years = 18 WAR * $8.5m per WAR = $153m. Thus, Griffins’ expected floor (and the guaranteed portion of his contract) would be right in line with open market costs per WAR for a 1-2 WAR player. The Pirates are paying for the equivalent of a 1-2 WAR player over the next 9 years, and they have a chance of getting much, much more. We call it “upside”. The money guys call it “surplus value”. Surplus value is what allows a team to assemble a competitive roster without a $300m payroll. That’s what makes it smart.
For the pump to be primed, a couple of factors must be in play.
First, a team has to have a player that can be realistically expected to produce star-level performance during their prime years. The contract needs to carry through most of the players peak years, as well, so that maximum value can be extracted from the player.
Second, the total outlay of the extension needs to accommodate the potential that the player may not meet that expectation. As with Griffin, the Pirates would certainly prefer the 4-5 WAR player they envision, but the contract would not be burdensome if he turned out to be 1.5 to 2.5 WAR.
Third, it is optimal if a team can get a year or two of team options to extend the contract if things are going well. This ensures the team can retain the player at an agreed upon amount without dealing with the wild-west aspect of the free agent bazaar to keep the player. And yet again avoids the decline years.
When is it not smart to do this?
Pitchers. They break. See Stridor, Spencer.
Older players. If a team can’t strike at the optimal time around age-24 (or earlier), then they probably are better off just working through the traditional process and letting that player go after 6 years, in which case many are already on the wrong side of 30 years old.
Low ceiling players. The teams’ ability to evaluate talent is crucial. They need to discern who really can reach star heights. There are no guarantees, but it can be easy to mistake a good and useful player for a possible star.
High risk players. Make-up, and the ability to evaluate it, may be just as crucial. A player may have star tools, but if they have high risk features, it may be smarter to roll the dice on the side of the traditional 6-year process. That may be the lesson of Wander Franco.
Who plays on this field?
Interestingly, most teams participate. In 6 years, 20 of the 30 MLB teams have done at least one pre-Arb Extension. Cleveland is the most prolific at 5 such deals.
The ten team that have not done a PreArb recently? They fit into 2 neat categories. Mega-market teams that don’t sweat risk and exposure, so they swim in the deep end of the FA pool: Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, Giants, Rangers, Mets. The rest are teams not known for their solid management chops or advanced thinking: Rockies, Angels, Marlins. The tenth team that doesn’t play? Our Cardinals. I suspect being in this list is more a reflection of the Cardinal talent pipeline the last 5-6 years than their management acumen.
Would they? Should they?
Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera will not sign PreArb extensions. They are already under contract for 2026 and for both, this is their 3rd and final pre-arb year. If they sign an extension, it will be one to avoid Arbitration. Those contracts have a whole look and feel different than what I’ve enumerated above.
JJ Wetherholt, on the other hand, fits right into to the PreArb model. 23 years old. Projected star. Less than 1 year of service time. The cookie cutter approach to these contracts makes such an extension easy to imagine.
If you view JJW as a middle infielder, a star but not a generational talent, the Cardinals might be inclined to find Tovar and Wilson as SS comps and Rafaela and Keith as 2B comps and think in the range of 7-8 years, $50m-$70m in whatever combination that brings the AAV (non-discounted) at around $10 per year. His representation, of course, will seek to cast him in the same company as Griffin and McGonigle, closer to $15m/AAV (non-discounted). Therein lies the gap that Wetherholt’s representation and Cardinals management will have to bridge. Because of Wetherholt’s age, he is not likely to get the 9th year. As a second baseman, he’s not likely to get the $15m AAV that Griffin got, but maybe in the range of the $10m AAV that Wilson got. Or would the Cardinals be OK with paying Wetherholt as an elite Shortstop? Hard to say. That would be an interesting phenomenon to pay Wetherholt the way Winn would like to be paid for the position Winn plays. I’d guess the compromise would be in the range of 8 years, $100m. If that rings a bell, that would be a comp to Colt Emerson/Seattle.
If you want to consider the downside risk of such a deal, take a look at David Fletcher’s career. Would such an extension be an albatross if that happened? Is the risk/benefit trade-off worth it?
CLEARWATER, FLORIDA - MARCH 13, 2026: José Barrero #96 of the Baltimore Orioles looks on during the third inning of a spring training game against the Philadelphia Phillies at BayCare Ballpark on March 13, 2026 in Clearwater, Florida. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
Triple-A: Norfolk Tides 7, Durham Bulls (Rays) 2
Norfolk scored the only win on the farm last night. José Barrero led the charge with a pair of home runs and a triple. He finished 3-for-4 with four RBIs and four runs scored.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand played the Robin to Barrero’s Batman. Encarnacion-Strand finished 2-for-4 with two RBIs and a run scored. Ryan Noda and Bryan Ramos added the only other Norfolk hits.
Tides starter Nestor German matched Barrero’s big day with 10 strikeouts on the mound. German allowed one run on three hits and one walk over 4.1 innings. He threw 49-of-81 pitches for strikes.
After allowing 30 runs yesterday during a doubleheader, Chesapeake limited New Hampshire to only 12 runs on Thursday. Neither team scored in the first four innings, but the Fisher Cats sprung for six runs in the fourth. Baysox starter Evan Yates recorded only one out in the inning. He ended the day with six earned runs on six hits and six walks.
Frederick Bencosme and Douglas Hodo III cut the lead in half with RBI singles in the fifth, and Bencosme trimmed the deficit to two by putting the ball in play in the eighth. Unfortunately, the Fisher Cats posted their second six-spot of the day in the bottom half of the inning. Eric Torres and Christian Herberholz posted zeros, but Ben Vespi allowed the game to get out of hand with six earned in the eighth.
Tavian Josenberger plated two with a double in the ninth.
High-A: Hudson Valley Renegades (Yankees) 5, Frederick Keys 2
Frederick starter Joseph Dzierwa took the loss after allowing three runs in five innings. Baltimore’s second round pick from 2025 surrendered a two-out, two-run single in the top of the first. He settled in with four scoreless innings, but he left after issuing a leadoff walk in the sixth. Dzierwa ended his day with only two hits allowed, but the four walks proved costly. Juan Rojas allowed the inherited runner to score.
Frederick struggled to get things going at the dish. Vance Honeycutt scored the team’s first run on a bizarre play in the fifth. With the bases empty, Honeycutt snuck a ball beyond a diving center fielder. Honeycutt slipped when rounding second, but the throw sailed over the third baseman’s head. Honeycutt came all the way around to score on a little league home run.
Honeycutt plated Ike Irish with a base hit in the bottom of the ninth.
Delmarva struck first when Stiven Martinez raced home on a wild pitch in the first, but Fredericksburg rattled off six straight runs. DJ Layton plated Martinez with a single in the sixth, but the Nationals tacked on two more to prevent things from getting interesting.
The Shorebirds managed only four hits in the game. Layton and Andrés Nolaya singled, Jordan Sanchez doubled, and Martinez tripled in the sixth.
Todd Kniebbe kept Fredericksburg off the board over the final 2.1 innings. Starter Brayan Orrantia allowed three earned over four innings, and Dalton Neuschwander coughed up five over 1.2 frames. Box scores
Friday’s Schedule
Norfolk: at Durham, 6:45 pm. Starter: Levi Wells (1-1, 1.26 ERA)
Chesapeake: at New Hampshire, 6:03 pm. Starter: Luis De León (1-1, 6.00 ERA)
Frederick: vs Hudson Valley, 7:00 pm. Starter: JT Quinn (0-0, 1.00 ERA)
CLEVELAND, OH - APRIL 16: Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Parker Messick (77) stands on the mound after pitching eighth no-hit innings to start the ninth inning of the Major League Baseball game between the Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Guardians on April 16, 2026, at Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
The Guardians got a big opening series win vs. The Orioles last night, featuring fans getting excited about Parker Messick and worried about Cade Smith.
Here’s Zack Meisel’s recap of the no-hit bid from Messick. He extolled Austin Hedges’ work behind the plate:
Stephen Vogt talked a little about Cade’s struggles:
“I think Cades still not 100% where he needs to be, and he knows that… their at bats off him tonight were unbelievable”#Guardians manager Stephen Vogt on Cade Smith’s outing#GuardsBall x @WEWSpic.twitter.com/2PUq0oF93z
CLEVELAND, OHIO - APRIL 16: Blaze Alexander #23 of the Baltimore Orioles reacts after striking out swinging during the sixth inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on April 16, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Good morning, Camden Chatters.
Remember four days ago, when the Orioles were in first place? It was fun while it lasted. The momentum arrow has swung decisively downward since then, with the O’s suffering three straight losses to drop back under .500 for the season.
Last night in Cleveland, the Orioles didn’t just lose. They nearly ended up a patsy for their opponent’s bid for the history books. Guardians rookie Parker Messick, making just his 11th major league start, kept the O’s hitless into the ninth inning. The Birds were on the brink of being no-hit for the first time since Hisashi Iwakuma in August 2015. Messick is having a sensational year in the early goings, but the Orioles’ performance last night didn’t make fans feel much better about the erratic O’s offense thus far. John Beers recapped all the action, of which there wasn’t much.
If there’s room for positivity, it should be noted that the Birds put up a heck of a fight in that ninth inning. Leody Taveras broke up the no-no with a leadoff single, and three other Orioles strung together hits after him, plating a pair of runs as the Guardians were forced to turn to their closer, Cade Smith. In fact the O’s might well have tied the game if not for a game-ending diving stop at second base by Juan Brito that robbed Samuel Basallo of a hit. What a comeback that would have been. I suppose the Orioles already used up their “no hits for eight innings followed by an incredible game-winning rally in the ninth” magic on Yoshinobu Yamamoto last year. You can’t expect lightning to strike twice.
Perhaps that ninth-inning eruption can serve as a spark plug for the O’s offense to put up some runs for the rest of this series. At least they won’t have to worry about facing Parker Messick again (not until the O’s host the Guardians in September, anyway). Whatever it takes, it’s time to start stringing some Ws together. The Orioles have been hovering around mediocrity for a while now. If they’re planning to take a step forward, any chance they can do it soon?
Guardians skipper Stephen Vogt arranged a welcome-home prank for his BFF Craig Albernaz that poked fun at his diminutive stature. As someone who is the same height as Albernaz, I must object. I only sometimes use kid-sized furniture.
It’s been a steep fall for Chayce McDermott, one of the Orioles’ top pitching prospects a couple of years ago who’s now being shipped off for a DSL lottery ticket. Knowing the Dodgers, they’ll of course transform McDermott into an elite reliever.
Watching Rico Garcia pitch this year, you’d never believe that six teams gave up on him, including the Orioles themselves four years ago. Let’s ride this wave however long it lasts.
A bit of advice for the Orioles offense: next time, maybe start getting hits before the ninth inning?
Orioles birthdays and history
Is today your birthday? Happy birthday! Three former Orioles were born on this day: right-hander Logan Gillaspie (29), third baseman Craig Worthington (61), and catcher Dave Huppert (69).
On this date in 1965, in a game at Fenway Park, O’s starter Robin Roberts was knocked out of the game after just two innings, giving up five runs. He was replaced by a 19-year-old right-hander who’d signed with the Orioles as an amateur free agent the previous August. The youngster issued a pair of walks and threw a wild pitch but made it through two scoreless innings in his major league debut. His name was Jim Palmer, and one legendary, 19-year career later, he joined Roberts in the National Baseball Hall of Fame.
And on this day in 1993, the Orioles somehow ended up with three runners at third base at the same time. With the bags full, Mike Devereaux hit a sinking liner to center that was trapped by the Angels’ Chad Curtis. Jeff Tackett, thinking the ball was caught, headed back to third base, while Brady Anderson jogged from second to third and Chito Martinez motored all the way over from first to third. The Angels tagged the three runners and easily completed a double play. (The only reason it wasn’t a triple play is because there was already one out.)
Random Orioles game of the day
On April 17, 1959, the Orioles beat the visiting Washington Senators, 4-3, at Memorial Stadium. O’s starter Milt Pappas went the distance, holding the Senators to three runs. The Birds trailed 3-1 in the sixth before Jim Finigan’s two-run single knotted the score, and the O’s took the lead in the eighth when Washington walked the bases loaded to set up a Gene Woodling sacrifice fly. A 22-year-old Brooks Robinson did not start but came in as a defensive replacement in the ninth.
Sep 10, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; General view of the helmet used by the Milwaukee Brewers before the start of the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-Imagn Images | Stan Szeto-Imagn Images
Greetings, Brew Crew Ball community. The Brewers had a rough week, as they were swept by the Nationals and battled with the reigning AL Champion Toronto Blue Jays this week. They’re now back on the road, as they’ll head to Miami and Detroit this week.
Feel free to use this thread to chat about (almost) anything you want: video games, food, movies, non-baseball sports, the Brewers, you name it. As long as it’s appropriate and is allowed by our moderators, it’s fair game here.
Apr 15, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies infielder Bryce Harper (42) rounds the bases after hitting a home run against the Chicago Cubs in the ninth inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images | Kyle Ross-Imagn Images
Things are a bit tense in the Phillies fanbase. A series victory against the Braves would do a lot to remedy that. A series loss against them would do a lot to make things tenser.
It’s a three game series, so those are the only two options.
The Detroit Tigers are on a roll after a perfect 6-0 homestand that erased a five-game losing streak and put them over the .500 mark for the first time since late March. Next up on the agenda are the Boston Red Sox, who will host the Motor City Kitties for a four-game series at Fenway Park starting on Friday night.
The BoSox got off to a slow start to the 2026 campaign, dropping five straight after their season-opening win at the Cincinnati Reds, but have since earned series wins over the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals. Boston enters the weekend coming off a series loss at the Minnesota Twins, but it did prevent a sweep with a win on Wednesday’s finale.
Opening things up on the mound for the Olde English D is right-hander Casey Mize, whose trademark splitter appears to be finally reaching its long-awaited potential. Opposite him is lefty Ranger Suarez, who has had modest success so far this season.
Make note that Friday night’s tilt will be broadcast on AppleTV, while Monday’s matchup starts at an eye-rubbingly early 11:10 a.m. ET.
Detroit Tigers (10-9) vs. Boston Red Sox (7-11)
Time (ET): 7:15 p.m. Place: Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts SB Nation Site:Over the Monster Media: AppleTV,Tigers Radio Network
Game 20: RHP Casey Mize (1-1, 3.94 ERA) vs. LHP Ranger Suarez (1-1, 5.02 ERA)
KMOX’s pre/post-game host Matt Pauley sets the stage for us for the Astros upcoming weekend series vs. St. Louis.
Q: Is Jordan Walker now the face of the franchise?
A: Interesting question. I’m not sure I’d say he’s the face just yet, but his start to the season has been spectacular.
He was literally one of the worst hitters in baseball the last couple of years, and I’d heard from fans and they were ready to move on from him, but now seeing what he’s doing, it’s unexpected. Some felt even coming out of spring training that he should’ve been optioned to AAA Memphis.
On Monday night, he hit his 8th home run in the first 16 games of this season. The only Cardinals players to accomplish that feat in team history are Stan Musial, Mark McGwire, Scott Rolen and Albert Pujols. He’s in rare air.
Q: Did you think J.J. Wetherholt would be this strong defensively?
A: No, I didn’t. His reputation is being an incredible hitter, so to see what he’s doing, especially going to his left, he’s getting just about everything which has been a surprise.
Q: One of the worst words in sports is “rebuild”. Are the Cardinals fully immersed in that process?
A: This is the first true rebuild year. Prior, they were trying to serve two masters. Last year didn’t work.
This is the first time in a while that there’s been clear intention of what they’re doing. It doesn’t mean they won’t be competitive. I know in talking to you, you lived through it in Houston 15 years ago. That was a complete and total tear down.
Q: Who will we see in this weekend series for the Cardinals’ starters taking the mound?
A: It will be a mix of Kyle Leahy, who actually throws six different pitches. He has a nice repertoire as someone coming from the bullpen originally.
Andre Pallante last year really struggled. He’s added a changeup but struggled against Boston recently. You’ll also see Matthew Liberatore, who is the leader of the rotation. He was the opening day starter. They believe he can be the guy to lead this staff.
Free of charge for the discerning reader.Happy birthday toCap Ansonand a mighty host of others, plus more baseball stories, such as the first pro game, Jackie’s first hit, Sam Snead’s big hit, Mickey LOVED Washington, and the debuts of Clemente, Aparicio, Drysdale and Frank Robinson.
Today in baseball history:
1869 – The first professional baseball game ever played sees the Cincinnati Red Stockings defeat the rival Cincinnati Amateurs, 24-15.
1951 – Golf great Sam Snead tees off from home plate and hits the center field scoreboard at Wrigley Field before the Cubs’home opener. The Associated Press reports: “Sammy Snead settled a long-standing argument today over whether a golf ball could be driven from home plate over the towering scoreboard at Wrigley Field. It can, by a golfer like Sam. Wearing street clothes, Snead sent a ball zooming well over the scoreboard with a No. 2 iron after hitting the board with a swing with a No. 4 iron. Snead calculated the carry was 175 yards. The scoreboard rises 89 feet in the air some 50 feet behind the 400-mark on the centerfield wall.”
1974 – C George Mitterwald has a career day in leading the Cubs to an 18-9 win over the Pirates. He goes 4-for-4 with a walk, a double, three homers, and eight RBI. The next Cub catcher to hit three homers in a game will be Dioner Navarro, in 2013.
1976 – At Wrigley Field, Mike Schmidt leads a Philadelphia Phillies assault with a single, four home runs in consecutive at-bats, and eight RBI to overcome a 12 – 1 deficit after three innings and beat the Chicago Cubs in 10 innings, 18-16. The Cubs tie the game in the ninth after the Phillies have taken a 15 – 13 lead. Hitting .167 going into the game, Schmidt connects for two homers off Rick Reuschel, one off Mike Garman, and the last, a two-run shot off Reuschel’s brother Paul in the 10th inning. Schmidt also becomes the first National League player in modern times to hit four home runs in a row.
858 – Benedict III’s reign as Catholic Pope ends with his death.
1492 – Christopher Columbus signs a contract with Spanish monarchs King Ferdinand II of Aragon and Queen Isabella I to find the “Indies” with the stated goal of converting people to Catholicism. This promises him 10% of all riches found and the governorship of any lands encountered.
1853 – US Marine Hospital at Presidio, San Francisco forms.
1860 – Champion of England Tom Sayers and American John Heenan fight a brutal 2-hour, 27-minute draw that ends only after police stop the fight near Farnborough in England, acknowledged as the first world title bout.
1875 – Modern snooker is invented by Sir Neville Chamberlain, a bored British officer in Jabalpur, India.
1993 – Two Los Angeles police officers convicted in federal court of violating Rodney King‘s civil rights and sentenced to prison, while two others are acquitted, leading to the L. A. Riots. When the riots ended six days later, 63 people had been killed, 2,383 had been injured, more than 12,000 had been arrested, and estimates of property damage were over $1 billion.
2015 – American jazz composer and saxophonist John Coltrane is awarded a posthumous Special Citation by the Pulitzer Prize board.
2015 – Marianne Winkler finds “message in a bottle” on the shore of the German island of Amrum; it had been dropped in the North Sea by British marine scientist George Parker Bidder on November 30th, 1906, making its length of time spent adrift 108 years, 138 days
Dodgers pitcher Roki Sasaki walks back to the mound after a pitch during the third inning of Sunday's game against the Texas Rangers. (Ronaldo Bolaños / Los Angeles Times)
Fans chanted his name. Teammates toasted his name. His manager deified his name, claiming he had just unleashed one of the greatest bullpen performances in baseball history.
Remember his first October appearance last fall, finishing the clinching game of the wild-card series against the Cincinnati Reds, one hitless inning, two strikeouts, everything disappearing at 100 mph out of this skinny kid’s right arm?
That was the beginning of the chants, arguably louder than for any other player in Dodger Stadium history, stronger than Moo-kie, deeper than Fred-die, chants thundering enough to seemingly be heard for a lifetime.
“Ro-ki, Ro-ki, Ro-ki!”
Remember what happened next? He finished off the first two wins of the division series against the Philadelphia Phillies amid a taunting mob in Citizens Bank Park, becoming the first pitcher in history to record his first two career saves in the playoffs.
Then, back home, he created what was, at the time, the highlight of the season.
With a depleted pitching staff needing him, with the Dodgers' teetering hopes balanced on him, Sasaki came through with three perfect innings to essentially win the clinching Game 4.
Remember this? He started his work in the eighth inning by blowing past Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm. He finished his work after the 10th by being hugged by jubilant manager Dave Roberts while still on the field.
The Dodgers won it in the 11th on that incredible throwing error by Phillies’ reliever Orion Kerkering and the rest is shiny blue history.
The Dodgers couldn’t have won the World Series without Sasaki and, judging from their reaction after that clincher against the Phillies, they thought they had found their closer of the future
“One of the great all-time appearances out of the pen,” said Roberts.
Fellow Dodger pitcher Tyler Glasnow went even farther, saying, “Since … coming in from the bullpen, he’s honestly one of the best pitchers I’ve ever seen.”
The highest compliment, though, was paid by teammate Miguel Rojas, who raised a post-game clubhouse toast in his honor.
He can’t find the strike zone. He can’t find his fastball. He can’t find himself.
He gives up five hits and five walks in four innings. He requires the use of four relievers. He is eventually saddled with an 0-2 record with a 6.23 ERA after piling up a 4.46 ERA in eight starts last season.
The fans faintly begin chanting his name, then their voices disappear into a hush. Nobody is coming to hug him. Nobody is coming to call him the greatest pitcher ever.
He’s no longer the benefactor of a toast, because he is toast.
Remember Roki Sasaki?
Not like this, you don’t.
The former star reliever has become their most embattled starter and one who has made the season’s first big move seem inevitable.
They’ve got to put him back in the bullpen, no?
They’ve got to put him back to where he found his greatest success, where his lack of a variety of pitches will not hurt him, where he can throw 100 mph for 20 pitches and save the team with his strength.
As last October showed everyone, the bullpen is where he belongs. The rotation, featuring budding star Justin Wrobleski, will survive without him. The bullpen needs him more.
Don’t believe the Dodgers’ public shrugs about the recent dead-arm condition of Edwin Díaz. Something was wrong. Maybe nothing serious, nothing long-term, but something was wrong.
You don’t bring in the highest-paid closer in history and then not use him in consecutive save situations unless something was wrong. You don’t have him throw a bullpen for Dodgers officials unless something was wrong.
That “something” may have already been fixed, as Díaz was available to pitch Wednesday after being sidelined for four days, but still. He could need help, and that is exactly what Sasaki offers and exactly what should happen.
C’mon Dodgers, send him across the field and into the left-field corner where he belongs.
Bullpen him, now.
“My goal is, kind of, go deeper in the game a little more,” he told the media Sunday through his interpreter Kensuke Okubo.
No, no, no. He doesn’t possess enough pitches to go deeper in games. He possesses just enough pitches — a fastball and a splitter — to last two innings, tops.
Look at this startling statistic:
In his first two innings of work, in three starts, he’s allowed zero earned runs.
In his other seven innings of work, he’s allowed nine earned runs.
Enough said. He’s a two-pitch pitcher who needs to be moved from the rotation into relief, and don’t think it hasn’t been done here before.
Eric Gagné made 48 starts from 1999 until 2001. At that point, the Dodgers decided he didn’t have the arsenal or attitude to be a starter, so they moved him to the bullpen.
He made 354 relief appearances without ever starting again, using his strength and skill and, yes, perhaps steroids, to convert a record 84-straight save chances while winning a Cy Young and coining the phrase “Game Over.”
Gagné was like Sasaki long before Sasaki. Even his entrance song, “Welcome to the Jungle,” matches Sasaki’s “Bailalo Rocky” with its ominous tones.
This is all so obvious, it’s a miracle the Dodgers haven’t put him in the bullpen already. But this is just the Dodgers being the Dodgers, an organization that puts the players first.
“We were just honest with him, that as things stood, the only real pathway … was in the bullpen,” president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told reporters at the time. “But we wanted his full buy-in.”
Sasaki, who had mostly started while growing up in Japan, told the Japanese magazine Shukan Bunshun he was “very hesitant” to make the switch but only agreed when the Dodgers promised it would be temporary.
“Because they will let me try to start again next season, it was a relatively easy decision to make,” he said.
Now it is the Dodgers who have the relatively easy decision. Sasaki will be upset, but the bullpen is surely a better option than an extended stay in Oklahoma City, where there are triple-A hitters whom he has already dominated. He’s too good for the minors. The problem is, as a starter, he’s also not good enough for the big leagues.
Into this limbo, the bullpen fits perfectly and if he’s unhappy, well, he was given a $6.5-million signing bonus to accept the ramifications of the following numbers:
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - APRIL 16: Jose Caballero #72 of the New York Yankees reacts to the loss to the Los Angeles Angels at Yankee Stadium on April 16, 2026 in The Bronx borough of New York City. The Los Angeles Angels defeated the New York Yankees 11-4. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Yankees wrapped up a four-game set with a split series on Thursday, dropping a game that spiraled out of control late and ended up an ugly 11-4 loss. Truth be told, the series ended in a split was extremely fortunate compared to how well the Yankees played this week, as their two wins were both ninth inning comebacks while their losses leaned towards blowouts. If it weren’t for the sleeper cell known as Jordan Romano, they could very well have been staring at a four-game sweep and the continuation of a nine-game losing streak entering this weekend — whether that’s looking at the glass half full, or realizing that they’re in the midst of a truly poor stretch of play, is up to interpretation.
While we wait for the team to retake the field tonight, let’s run you through what we have in store. Matt starts us off with a preview of the pitching matchups for this series with the Royals, and Sam takes us through what the rest of the league was up to on Thursday in the Rivalry Roundup. Jonathan celebrates the birthday of a man who left a legacy across multiple sports in Zack Clayton, Jeff takes the bottom of the lineup to task in examining the lineups struggles, and later in the day I’ll be back to answer your latest mailbag questions.
Today’s Matchup
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals
Time: 7:05 p.m. EST
Video: YES Network, Royals.TV
Venue: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Questions/Prompts:
1. Are you more annoyed that the Yankees let the Angels outplay them or relieved they somehow pulled out a split considering their play right now?
2. Is the rotation experiencing regression to the mean, or just going through a rough patch?
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA - APRIL 14: Mitch Keller #23 of the Pittsburgh Pirates pitches during the first inning against the Washington Nationals at PNC Park on April 14, 2026 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images) | Getty Images
One of the first group of MLB Power Rankings has been released, and the Pittsburgh Pirates are somewhere we are not used to seeing them: near the top.
Sports Illustrated has released their first MLB Power Rankings since right before Opening Day, and your Buccos are sitting pretty in fourth place. Here’s what SI has to say about our squad:
How about those Pirates?! After an uncharacteristic Opening Day meltdown, ace Paul Skenes has righted the ship for the Buccos, Braxton Ashcraft is quietly pitching like an ace and Mitch Keller continues to be a quality start machine. But it’s been the Pirates’ rebuilt lineup, led by an apparent breakout year from Oneil Cruz and hot starts from newcomers Ryan O’Hearn and Brandon Lowe, that has Pittsburgh residents already dreaming of the club’s first postseason appearance since 2015.
So while SI isn’t as presitgious these days as the power rankings on MLB.com, it’s nice to see Pittsburgh being recognized for their 11-8 start. Right now, that puts the Bucs on a 92-win pace, which is better than any of us predicted here on the staff. I think most importantly, baseball has been fun, which hasn’t been the case here in Pittsburgh for a while. I legitimately enjoy watching each member of the starting five, and now that the team is hitting the ball a little bit, it’s been a pretty good watch on that side of the ball as well.
Since I am an elementary teacher, I don’t usually get to games in person until the summer, so it would be nice for the games I attend to matter for a change. It’s been a while since the Bucs were still playing for something in June, July and August when I can actually go. Let’s hope the power rankings hold. Go Bucs!
