Author: MLB Baseball News, Scores, Standings, Rumors, Fantasy Games

The Phillies have plenty of early season problems, but perhaps one of the most concerning ones is the performance of Jesús Luzardo. 

Four starts into the season after signing a five year, $135M extension, Luzardo sports a 7.94 ERA in 22.2 innings. He’s allowed five or more runs in three of those starts, with the most recent edition being his 9 runs on 12 hits in just 5.1 IP shellacking at the hands of the Cubs. His struggles are reminiscent to the tipping pitches situation from last summer, but he insists that’s not the case now. 

So, what is the problem then? One of the first things to look at when a pitcher is struggling is the stuff. In this case, Luzardo’s stuff looks good and, in some cases, looks better than last year. He’s averaging 97.3 MPH on his fastball, a slight increase from 2025, his sweeper has a 49% whiff rate on 140 pitches, and his changeup has a 46.3% whiff rate on 77 pitches thrown so far. There’s nothing under the hood to suggest that Luzardo’s stuff has regressed, in fact there’s more evidence to show it’s slightly improved. 

Luzardo suggested in his post-game interview that some of the problem could be pitch usage and sequencing. Here we can see a noticeable change, at least in the small sample size of four starts. He’s greatly increased the usage of his sinker, up to 19.1% from 10.8% last year at the expense of his four-seam fastball. The four seamer has fallen from his most used pitch at 33.3% to 24.1%, being overtaken by the sweeper for most used. Last season, Luzardo used the fastball and sweeper at similar rates, 33.3% and 32.1% respectively. So far in 2026, he’s tried to incorporate the sinker more into that mix at the expense of his regular fastball.

Elsewhere, his problems with runners on base have once again reared their ugly head. Opposing hitters are hitting .441 with five extra base hits including three home runs against Luzardo with runners on base. When the bases are empty, opposing hitters are hitting .220 with three doubles and 20 strikeouts to 3 walks. He’s also struggled mightily the second and third time through the order. Opponents are hitting .171 with a .394 OPS and 12 strikeouts to one walk against Luzardo the first time through a lineup. But the second time through, those numbers jump to a .281 AVG and .861 OPS. They soar even higher the third time through, with Luzardo getting pulverized to the tune of a .500 AVG and 1.231 OPS in a sample of 26 batters faced.

At least part of the explanation to this poor start for Luzardo is bad luck. He’s sitting on a league worst .417 BABIP (Cristopher Sánchez is second with .411), well above his .324 mark from last year and way above the league average of .288 so far in 2026. That suggests that Luzardo is due for at least some positive batted ball regression. There was some soft contact that found grass in his latest start, but there were also some hard-hit rockets among the balls in play he surrendered, including four balls at over 100 MPH in exit velocity. Nevertheless, his 86.2 MPH average exit velocity for the season so far is right in line with his 88.5 mark from 2025. 

It is still early, and Luzardo was able to rebound from a string of poor starts last year. His batted ball luck should normalize as the season goes on, but his struggles with runners on base is a trend that dates back to last season and was thought to have been fixed. So, is it time to worry about JesúsLuzardo? Or are you confident that he’ll be able to right the ship again?

Columbus Clippers 10, Iowa Cubs 11

Clippers fall to 9-9

Columbus made a valiant effort to battle back in this one after falling behind 5-0, but the Clippers fell one run shy in extra innings Thursday.

Travis Bazzana had a spectacular game, going 3-for-6 with two doubles. He’s currently riding a six-game hitting streak with four multi-hit games in his last five. Don’t look now, but he’s really starting to figure it out at Triple-A.

C.J. Kayfus also had a three-hit game, going 3-for-5 with a double and a walk. Stuart Fairchild went 2-for-5 with a double and a hit by pitch while Kody Huff went 2-for-4 with two doubles.

Dayan Frias hit his first home run of the season while Milan Tolentino had a two-run double.

Starting pitcher Ryan Webb was tagged for seven runs (six earned) on nine hits with four walks and just one strikeout in 5.0 innings of work.

Will Dion was solid in relief, tossing 2.0 scoreless innings.

Daniel Espino gave up his first run of the season, a solo home run, but he also topped 100 mph with his fastball three times. His slider was over 94 mph and his changeup was over 93. His stuff is getting filthier every time we see him and I’m legitimately getting excited for what he’s going to be able to do as long as he continues to stay healthy.

Steven Perez pitched a scoreless ninth inning, giving Columbus the chance to send the game to extra innings — which it did — but then he was hammered for three runs in the top of the 10th. Columbus managed to score two back, but the rally fell just short.

Akron RubberDucks 5, Harrisburg Senators 0 (F/7)

RubberDucks improve to 8-4

Akron continues to get excellent pitching and timely hitting as the RubberDucks own their third straight game. This time, it was starting pitcher Josh Hartle who had himself a game.

Hartle tossed 5.1 shutout two-hit innings with seven strikeouts and three walks. The performance lowered his season ERA to 2.45.

Jay Driver completed the final 1.2 innings of the shutout in a rain-shortened game.

On offense, Angel Genao had a terrific game, going 2-for-3 with a double and a walk. Christian Knapczyk went 1-for-3 with a walk and Jake Fox went 3-for-4.

Alfonsin Rosario went 1-for-4, but his one hit was a huge one, a three-run home run in the seventh inning to help Akron seal the win. It was his fifth home run of the season.

Lake County Captains 3, Fort Wayne Tincaps 8

Captains fall to 5-6

You wouldn’t think it from the final score, but this was by far the best start of pitching prospect Jackson Humphries’ young career.

An eighth round draft pick out of high school in 2022, Humphries has historically struggled to throw strikes, but that wasn’t the case on Thursday. He pitched five innings, allowing one run on two hits with 10 strikeouts and 0 walks. Still just 21 years old, he’s yet another arm in a loaded Guardians system that’s worth keeping an eye on.

Unfortunately, the bullpen didn’t have Humphries’ back on Thursday. Sean Matson gave up two runs in 1.2 innings, Cam Schuelke gave up another run in his 1.1 innings and Logan McGuire was absolutely blistered for four runs in his lone inning of work to remove the Captains from contention.

Offensively, the Captains scored all of their runs on solo shots. Jaison Chourio had a strong game, going 2-for-4 with a home run and a walk. He’s now up to a rock solid season slashline of .273/.389/.523 through 11 games. If he keeps this up, he’ll be right back on track as a top outfield prospect in the loaded Guardians system.

Esteban Gonzalez also had a great game, going 3-for-4 with a home run. Dean Curley went 1-for-3 with a walk, a hit by pitch and a stolen base and Nolan Schubart went 1-for-4 with a double and a walk. Luke Hill went 1-for-2 with a walk and a hit by pitch.

Hill City Howlers 14, Wilson Warbirds 1

Howlers improve to 8-4

Hill City went absolutely ballistic this game, scoring 14 runs on a whopping 17 hits with seven walks. This is going to be fun to break down, especially the top of the batting order, who all had downright disgusting games.

Juneiker Caceres had an absolute monster game, going 3-for-5 with a three-run home run and a walk. After a slow start to the season, he now sports a solid .872 OPS.

Leadoff hitter Dauri Fernandez also was elite, going 4-for-6 with two doubles and a stolen base. Top teenage outfield prospect Robert Arias was moved up to No. 2 in the batting order and he responded by going 3-for-6 with a double, raising his season batting average to .308 in the process.

Anthony Martinez reached base safely three times, going 1-for-4 with two walks. Yelferth Castillo went 2-for-6 with a double and catcher Ty Howard walked three times and scored a pair of runs.

Jhorvic Abreus went 2-for-5 with a stolen base and Yaikel Mijares went 2-for-5.

The incredible offensive eruption buried the lede of some tremendous pitching performances from Hill City.

Top pitching prospect Joey Oakie had his best start of the 2026 season thus far, throwing 4.0 shutout innings of three-hit ball with seven strikeouts and just one walk.

Jervis Alfaro followed with 5.0 innings, allowing one run (zero earned) on two hits with five strikeouts and two walks to earn the win.

Good morning, LSB.

The Rangers won a spirited, comeback affair against the A’s yesterday.

Kennedi Landry writes about how the Rangers finally bested their mortal enemy, the wind.

Grant also writes about Gavin Collyer’s quick and efficient MLB debut.

Grant also looks at some streaking Rangers, good and bad.

Elsewhere MLB Pipeline lists the best defensive prospect from each team.

And Mike Trout is really good (again).

That’s all for this morning. The Rangers start up a new series with the Mariners tonight at 8:40 with Jacob The Grom on the mound for Texas.

Happy Friday!

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Let's head into the weekend on some winning vibes with our MLB best bets for tonight at Polymarket, which allows baseball fans coast-to-coast to make their favorite MLB picks.

We've polled our MLB experts for their top plays today, looking at Chi-Town, the A-Town, and Believeland to deliver Ws tonight. 

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: CHW ML	+138
Jon Metler: ATL ML	-108
Joe Osborne: CLE ML	-127
Neil Parker: CHC -1.5	+133

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: White Sox moneyline

Price: 42¢ (+138) at Polymarket

There’s solid wiggle room here, with a fair price around +106. Davis Martin has been steady, turning in three strong starts with two wins for the Chicago White Sox. Aaron Civale doesn’t typically go deep for the Athletics, and their bullpen has been heavily used of late, with multiple key arms unavailable today. This profiles as a higher-scoring, back-and-forth game where both bullpens will factor in — in that type of environment, taking the plus-money dog makes sense.

Jon Metler's expert pick: Braves moneyline

Price: 52¢ (-108) at Polymarket

The Atlanta Braves are trading as a 52-cent favorite in Philadelphia on Friday, but I make them closer to a 58-cent favorite, giving us a solid edge at the current price. This is a tough matchup for Taijuan Walker, a pitch-to-contact right-hander who has struggled badly against lefties this season — a major concern against a Braves lineup loaded with left-handed bats, but also has dangerous righties like Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley. On the other side, southpaw Martin Pérez isn’t overpowering, but he does a strong job commanding his cutter and sinker. That approach should help limit the pull-side power of Philadelphia’s top leftie threats Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, and keep the Phillies’ offense in check.

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Guardians moneyline

Price: 56¢ (-127) at Polymarket

Home/Away splits line up heavily in the Guardians' favor tonight. Tanner Bibee is a completely different pitcher at home, carrying over from last season, where his ERA sat nearly two runs lower. Baltimore's Chris Bassitt, on the other hand, struggles badly on the road: He had an ERA spike of 2.7 in away games last season, and we're seeing shades of that in 2026. The gap shows up at the plate too, as Guardians hitters own an OPS nearly 100 points higher at home, while the Orioles' offense takes a noticeable dip away from Camden Yards, averaging just three runs per game.

Neil Parker's expert pick: Cubs -1.5

Price: 43¢ (+133) at Polymarket

The Mets have dropped eight straight while scoring just 12 total runs. Juan Soto (calf) isn’t returning anytime soon, and the Mets are down to 28th in wOBA against right-handed arms. It’s a different story at the dish for the Cubs, as they’ve won three of four while averaging 8.8 runs per game. Plus, Cubbies righty Edward Cabrera has hit the ground running, with a 1.62 ERA and 1.14 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .175 average and .250 wOBA.

More MLB best bets for today

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It's been a great week on the home-run front as the MLB player prop market has been good to us without terrible hitting conditions.

There are some spots to attack today, so I'm targeting the best hitting environments and matchups today, and hopefully take a little money into the weekend.

The Jays have a great matchup vs. one of the luckier pitchers in baseball right now, and the Jordan Walker price is head-scratching when you look at his home-run matchup. 

I also like Ildemaro Vargas to go deep at boxcar odds.

These are my favorite home run props for Friday, April 17. 

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Daulton Varsho	+540
Jordan Walker	+540
Ildemaro Vargas	+1200
💲Today's HR parlay	+35702

Daulton Varsho (+540)

How about a little lefty-on-righty for +540 to start a Friday home run train?

Daulton Varsho is hitting out of the two-hole and might get that all-important fifth at-bat. He is also in the middle of a power surge with three home runs over his last six games. 

The indoor matchup vs. Mike Soroka is a plus. The Jays likely have plenty of info on the Canadian pitcher, who sits in the Bottom-20 in BlastCon% among all MLB starters this year.

You will also be hard-pressed to find a pitcher that has been as lucky as Soroka this year, with an ERA three full points below his expected numbers. There are also no left-handers in the Arizona bullpen, which sits 21st in RP ERA.

The fair price on this home run is around +450. 

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Dbacks.TV, Sportsnet

Jordan Walker (+540)

What a great price for one of the league’s top home-run hitters to start the season.

Jordan Walker has elite marks in swing speed and Blast Contact%, which have translated into a league-leading eight home runs. He gets a favorable matchup against Peter Lambert, who is making his debut and may only be in this spot due to injuries in the Astros' rotation rather than performance.

Lambert hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2024 and has allowed 25 home runs over his last 148+ innings in the MLB. He’s unlikely to go deep, which brings a vulnerable Houston bullpen into play — a unit that has already allowed the second-most home runs this season.

Walker could see fringe MLB arms for much of this game. This price should be closer to +390, and in a matchup like this, the scoring environment could get out of hand quickly.

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Space City Home Network, Cardinals.TV

Ildemaro Vargas (+1200)

I started the week with a four-digit dinger, and I’m looking to bookend it with another.

Ildemaro Vargas owns some of the best Blast Contact% marks on the Arizona Diamondbacks, which is enough at a +1200 price in a controlled environment.

It gets better. Eric Lauer has been serving up meatballs, and Vargas has quietly posted a 1.068 OPS with plenty of extra-base hits.

He hits lefties better, is moving up the lineup, and should see favorable spots against a Toronto Blue Jays bullpen that can give up damage.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Dbacks.TV, Sportsnet

Today’s HR parlay

Daulton Varsho	Bet Now +35702
Jordan Walker
Ildemaro Vargas

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Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Yankees open a three-game series against the Kansas City Royals in the Bronx on Friday...

5 things to watch

Will Ben Rice stay in the lineup?

A lot has been made of manager Aaron Boone's lineups this week. Despite saying Rice is his first baseman, he's sat down the talented slugger a few times this week in favor of Paul Goldschmidt. 

While Boone likes having Rice as a left-handed option off the bench, with the team scuffling and Rice being the most consistent hitter this season, it would behoove the skipper to keep Rice at first base this weekend. 

Will it happen? That remains to be seen.

The Royals are deploying two southpaws in Noah Cameron and Cole Ragans, but Rice launched a homer off a lefty reliever against the Angels on Thursday, so he is capable of handling it.

Aaron Judge continues to mash

Judge is locked in.

The captain mashed four home runs in the four-game series against the Angels this week and is now tied for the major league lead in that category.

Unfortunately for the Yanks, the home runs haven't necessarily translated to victories as the Bombers had to settle for a split with the Angels. The Yankees have lost seven of their last nine games, but when Judge goes this team goes. And going up against those aforementioned lefties could benefit Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and the other right-handers in the lineup.

Bullpen woes

The Yankees' bullpen was the weakest part of the team coming out of spring training, but they excelled early on and helped the team get out to a 8-2 start. Things have changed since.

The relievers allowed 14 runs in 17 innings during the four-game series with the Angels, including two implosions.

New York has played musical chairs with certain relievers as they try and navigate playing 13 straight days -- their next off day is Monday. 

The high-leverage guys -- aside from Camilo Doval -- have been fine, but if the starters don't go deep the Yankees could be facing problems similar to what they experienced this week.

Length needed from starters

Speaking of the starters, the Yankees will have Cam Schlittler, Will Warren,and Ryan Weathers take the mound this weekend.

All three were not great in their last starts. Schlittler had his -- relative -- worst outing of the season, allowing three runs over five innings while the Angels pounced on Warren for six runs across 3.2 innings. Weathers was the most unique, as he struck out 10 batters but allowed five runs in five innings, all from the long ball.

While it is a long season and hiccups are natural, the Yankees need their young hurlers to give them length to take the pressure off the bullpen and the lineup.

Bobby in the Bronx

Yankee Stadium sometimes brings the best out of some players, like we saw with Mike Trout this week. The future Hall-of-Famer launched five home runs in the four-game series, making a statement to the rest of MLB that he is healthy and back.

Now, the Yanks will welcome Bobby Witt Jr.,the Royals' superstar who finished second to Judge in the 2024 MVP voting. While Witt hasn't had the start he usually does -- he's slashing .254/.346/.299 with an OPS of .645 across 18 games -- it's only a matter of time until the talented infielder gets it going.

Witt has played 11 games in the Bronx. In that span, he's hitting .255 with two doubles and one home run. 

Predictions

Who will the MVP of the series be?

Ben Rice

Rice plays all three games and shows why he needs to stay in the lineup.

Which Yankees pitcher will have the best start?

Cam Schlittler

Schlittler has allowed three runs in back-to-back games this season. He didn't do that all of last season, and I don't see that going to three games.

Which Royals player will be a thorn in the Yankees' side?

Bobby Witt Jr.

Easy pick. Witt just put up three hits on Thursday against the Tigers, and it feels like he's ready to be his MVP-type self after a slow start.

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The Tampa Bay Rays will look to build on their six-game winning streak as they visit the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday night.

Tampa Bay has been crushing opposing pitchers so far this season, and I’m picking it to win again tonight in my Rays vs. Pirates predictions. 

Let’s take a deeper look at this matchup in my free MLB picks for Friday, April 17.

Who will win Rays vs Pirates tonight: Rays moneyline (+120)

The Tampa Bay Rays are averaging 5.06 runs per game so far this season, and have put up at least five runs in every game of their current winning streak. They’ll have a great chance to keep that going tonight against Pittsburgh Pirates starter Bubba Chandler.

Chandler has allowed three earned runs in each of his last two starts without going more than 5 1/3 innings in either game.

Tampa Bay starter Nick Martinez has looked sharp to start the season, throwing to a 2.16 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over his first three starts.

With the Rays coming in this hot, I’m jumping on these odds tonight.

COVERS INTEL: Tampa Bay is hitting .267 and averaging 5.5 runs per nine innings against right-handed pitching this season.

Rays vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-102)

Pittsburgh is hitting well too, averaging five runs per game off a .734 OPS this year. Brandon Lowe has seven homers in his first 17 games, while Oneil Cruz and Ryan O’Hearn are also off to fast starts.

Neither starter is likely to give their team much length tonight. There are soft spots that these lineups can take advantage of if it takes several arms to get through this game, especially on Tampa Bay’s side.

With both lineups in peak form, I’m backing the Over.

Rays vs Pirates odds

• Moneyline: Rays +116 | Pirates -136
• Run line: Rays +1.5 | Pirates -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Rays vs Pirates trend

The Rays are 6-0 straight up in their last six games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Pirates.

How to watch Rays vs Pirates and game info

Rays vs Pirates latest injuries

Rays vs Pirates weather

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Earlier this week, the Yankees picked up a split in their series against the Angels, but it was a lot of work to get there. The two wins required ninth inning comebacks, while the two losses were both of the very dumb variety. With that over, the Yankees will remain home and welcome the Royals to town for a weekend matchup.

With the exception of the Dodgers, every team in baseball has gotten off to a middling start to the season, but the Royals sit at the lower end of that. Following a loss on Thursday, they sit at 7-12. Their lineup has been more to blame, as even Bobby Witt Jr. has gotten off to a bit of a slow start. Can the Yankees keep that going, or will we be sitting here Sunday night frustrated at another annoying series? Let’s look at what the pitching matchups might have in store.

Friday: Cam Schlittler vs. Michael Wacha (7:05 pm ET)

After a remarkable first two starts on the season, Schlittler has given up some runs in the last two, albeit both times, it was just three in five innings. The most remarkable stat of all was that a walk he issued in his most recent game against the Rays was the first he issued all season.

The veteran Wacha has gotten off to an incredible start to his age 34 season. In 21 innings across three starts, he’s given up just one run. In his perfectly fine 2025 season, he put up 3.6 fWAR and 3.8 rWAR, and he’s already at 0.6 and 1.1 respectively in 2026. Now, a non-zero amount of that had to do with throwing eight scoreless against a very bad White Sox offense in his last game, but the Yankees’ offense hasn’t covered themselves in glory so far, so we shall see.

Saturday: Will Warren vs. Noah Cameron (1:35 pm ET)

With a 2.45 ERA in his four starts so far, Warren has mostly been perfectly fine so far. That being said, he’s only lasted a full five innings once so far, and he did allowed four unearned runs in his last game. He’s also only issued six walks in 18.1 innings on the season, but if you look at the ball-strike breakdown, he has a habit of letting counts go long. While the Royals haven’t taken a ton of walks, they’ve struck out less than league average, so if he can’t put batters away cleanly and quickly in this one, that could lead to some danger.

Cameron debuted last season and had a very nice campaign, finishing fourth in AL Rookie of the Year voting. However in his lone game against the Yankees so far, they did tag him for six runs in 5.2 innings last year on June 10th in Kansas City. His stats on 2026 so far are fine, but he has allowed a higher rate of hits so far.

Sunday: Ryan Weathers vs. Cole Ragans (1:35 pm ET)

Weathers’ 4.29 ERA only grades out as a little worse than league average. However, his start to the season feels way worse than that because he’s been a roller coaster. He has two pretty good starts, including one against the A’s where he gave up just one run in eight inning. However, his two bad starts have been very bad, including getting roughed up by the Angels earlier this week.

After a fourth place Cy Young finish in 2024, Ragans was limited to just 61.2 innings last year due to injury. He appears to be back and healthy this year, but did have to leave a start in the first inning a couple weeks ago after taking a liner to the thumb. His 3.78 ERA grades out as solid, but his 8.6 K/9 rate is way down from where it has been, including in 2024.

Good news: Red Sox fans get to watch the two best starting pitchers in the American League this weekend when the Detroit Tigers come to town.

Bad news: The pitchers miss each other by one game and Boston must find a way to beat the two-time defending Cy Young Award winner. 

Garrett Crochet and Tarik Skubal will each take the mound. Last season, they represented the class of left-handed pitching in the sport. They each set the tone of excellence for their respective rotations. 

There’s only one problem: We really have to miss this matchup? 

Here are four thoughts on the excellent southpaws before the Tigers and Red Sox begin a four-game set on Marathon weekend. 

So Close

Skubal will likely pitch Saturday’s contest against Brayan Bello while Crochet will take the ball for the Red Sox in the Sunday matinee. 

Despite spending multiple years in the same division when Crochet pitched for the Chicago White Sox, the stars have only faced off against each other once.

Flashback to Opening Day 2024 and it was the pitchers’ duel baseball deserved. Crochet and Skubal each tossed six strong innings with just eight combined hits allowed and 14 total strikeouts. 

The lone run against Crochet came when Andy Ibanez plated Javy Baez on a third-inning sacrifice fly. 

Baseball deserves to see this matchup once again, especially as the reigning top-two finishers in last year’s American League Cy Young Award race. 

ERA Crusher? 

When it’s all said and done, there may be no greater winner from Crochet’s disastrous start against the Minnesota Twins. 

The Red Sox starter imploded in the second inning Monday and exited after allowing 10 earned runs to the best team in the American League (so far). That performance ballooned Crochet’s ERA to 7.58 (!!!). 

That could take him months to bring that number back down to Earth and legitimately return him to award conversations. Skubal is at 2.22 through his first four starts and could now very easily walk the red carpet to his third consecutive Cy Young win, though other AL contestants will surely arise. 

All that in a contract year to boot (more on that later). 

Revisiting 2025

Skubal won the Cy Young Award last season with the ERA title (2.22 ERA) and the league-leading WAR (6.5). He won 13 games to Crochet’s 18 (we don’t need to insert the lecture on the declining value of pitcher wins) while the Red Sox ace led the sport with 255 strikeouts and 205.1 innings pitched.

Red Sox Discount? 

Boston wasted no time locking in Crochet for the future after acquiring him in a December 2024 trade with the White Sox. In the first week of the 2025 regular season, Crochet signed a six-year, $170 million extension through 2031 with an opt-out after 2030. 

Getting the second best starting pitcher in the American League at $28 million per year already feels like a win for the Red Sox. That should resonate even more when Skubal likely breaks the bank in free agency next winter.
Extension talks with Detroit seem to be over and Skubal will walk at the perfect time, especially after a potential three-peat Cy Young performance we alluded to early. If he exceeds $40 million per year, the Red Sox can have a rare reason nowadays to pat themselves on the back.

If you are a regular reader of this segment, you have seen this before. The best stats are the stats that can be used for hitting and pitching. Offensive and defensive efficiency is one of those. Today, we are focused on the worst pitching staff in baseball. At least, that is where the Astros ranked coming into Wednesday night’s game. They were last in hits allowed, walks allowed, and home runs allowed. In fact, if we throw in Wednesday night’s game they even led the league in hit by pitches.

I stepped out of the lab on Wednesday to question whether Joe Espada or Dana Brown were on the hot seat. Of course, they have no contract for 2027, so they started the season on the hot seat. I would never fire a manager or executive in April. It was more of a question of what would happen if these trends continue. The general law of statistics is that everything will regress to the mean. Today, I present the big table of how each major league team is doing in defensive efficiency.

In the case of pitching, the lower the number the better. It is a simple accounting of what percentage of base runners score. It is not a perfect accounting. We do not include players that reach on errors, but in this case we are short-circuiting the table to include the total number of runs, total number of base runners, and the defensive efficiency rating for each team. We will go last to first this time around.

I should go over some basic math before we dive into what it means. Each category stands on its own. So, if you were to take the median for each category and actually do the math, the median would be .354. Some of you are glazing over as you read this, but I know I have some intrepid readers out there that will notice these little things. Kudos to you for noticing.

Let’s start with the good news. The Astros are due for some positive regression on all counts. This team will not be the worst pitching staff in baseball for the whole season. They will surrender fewer hits and they will definitely get their walks down to a more reasonable level. However, the biggest thing is that their defensive efficiency will also approach the league median as well. This is because the entire league will approach the median eventually.

What exactly does this mean? If the Astros had league median efficiency they would have surrendered 99 runs instead of 113. In the early going, this would probably be equivalent to three wins. Suddenly, a 11-9 team would look a lot better than an 8-12 team. Of course, the hitting efficiency would also be closer to the median. So, maybe you would be looking at a .500 team.

The bad news is that getting to the median in hits allowed and walks allowed is not necessarily in the cards. The Astros will get closer to the median, but this might be a below average pitching staff with all of the injuries. This is mainly about efficiency. You will notice the numbers are over the board in terms of runs scored and base runners. The Rays are one of the better pitching staffs in terms of base runners. They are off the charts in a negative way.

So, in the end, the Astros have been bad, but they have also been unlucky. So, even if they continue to be bad, they will still improve overall due to a regression to the mean. They will eventually get there when health stabilizes and when they move to a more conventional rotation with AAAA type of starters to replace the injured ones.

We will revisit these numbers later in the year, so we should keep these in the back of our mind. You will see the numbers tightening and the Astros improve overall as the season goes along. The other good news is that teams like the Rangers will get worse. On a long enough timeline the survival rate drops to zero. Do you agree?

Jacob Melton was acquired by the Rays as the centerpiece in the Brandon Lowe trade. He brings a high-impact toolset: fringe 70 power, plus defense across all three outfield spots (including center field), and above-average speed.

Through his first 15 games with Triple-A Durham, that hasn’t translated to production. Melton is currently running a 74 wRC+. Why would someone with a strong track record of upper-minors performance be struggling in AAA?

There are a few reasons for this. First, it’s likely just random variance in a small sample. It’s not even May yet, there’s no need to be concerned. Another reason is that Melton is currently undergoing an adjustment to his approach, so his early struggles may be less about regression and more about recalibration.

Damage on contact

In order to get the most out of his profile as a power hitter, Melton needs to ensure he’s consistently hitting the ball at optimal angles. He has seen year-over-year improvement in his SLG on contact (SLGcon), measured per “BBE” (Batted Ball Event, e.g. anytime a bat makes contact with the ball).

• 2024: .560 (127 BBE)
• 2025: .729 (97 BBE)
• 2026: .750 (22 BBE)

League average SLGcon in AAA typically sits in the mid to upper 500s each season, so we can see that he has gone from accessing his power from an average rate to a well above average rate so far this season. His launch angle (LA) distribution helps explain why.

Analyzing LAs in buckets adds an important layer than is often overlooked when one exclusively considers average LA. Categorizing LAs in groups paints a more detailed picture of a player’s batted ball distribution – something we can see with Melton’s LA buckets below:

It’s too small of a sample so far in 2026 to say that the data will be the same for the rest of the season, but the trends are more important than the exact numbers. Melton is getting into line drive and fly ball angles more consistently, and his hardest contact is coming at optimal angles for damage too. His average hardhit LA has climbed from just 9 degrees in 2024 to 19 degrees so far in 2026. I’d expect those improved angles to translate to more in-game production over a larger sample, but that production comes with a trade-off.

Next steps

Melton is whiffing significantly more this season as a result of his shift in approach. In many ways, this looks like a deliberate trade-off: sacrificing contact to unlock more impactful contact. After maintaining a solid 23.4 whiff% across 2024 and 2025 in AAA, it has significantly increased to 41.4% this season. That level of swing-and-miss would be difficult to sustain at the major league level.

Melton can hedge against this by improving his swing decisions and figuring out a two-strike approach. The two data points I’ll be following are his zone-minus-out-of-zone (Z-O) swing% with less than two strikes and his whiff% with two strikes.

He’ll need to be selective and disciplined to maintain his plus damage on contact. His Z-O swing% so far this year is a 38.9%. This number is currently better than average but getting it closer to 40% and higher would be ideal for Melton’s profile. It appears that he’s doing well in this area so far.

His two-strike approach is less polished as Melton is currently whiffing on 53.7% of pitches with two strikes. One possible adjustment is incorporating more opposite-field intent in two-strike counts. That would allow him to see the ball deeper and naturally shorten his swing, which could help reduce swing-and-miss. Importantly, this kind of situational adjustment wouldn’t necessarily come at the expense of his improved damage on contact.

Those two markers – early-count swing decisions and two-strike whiff rate – will be key to monitor as he works toward impacting the major league roster later this season and pushing for a role in 2027.

Last season, a corner outfielder wearing the jersey no. 23 got off to a rough start in his first year as a Dodgers. This season, a shiny new corner outfielder wearing no. 23 has gotten off to an equally frustrating start.

Kyle Tucker was signed to be that impact corner outfielder at the top of the Dodgers lineup, and he is still an upgrade over the maligned Michael Conforto, who now finds himself struggling in Tucker’s old stomping grounds from the year prior. Tucker has demonstrated a remarkable eye at the plate, as reflected in a 15 percent walk rate that ranks 33rd out of 189 qualified hitters, but he has just three extra-base hits on the season with a slugging percentage at .343. His strikeout rate and chase rate are both uncharacteristically high to begin the season as well.

Tucker attributed his recent poor performances with being a bit too selective on his swing, notes Sonja Chen of MLB.com, as he has struggled with adjusting his approach in unfavorable counts.

“Sometimes you just find yourself chasing more, you just have to try and just narrow your zone a little bit and look in certain parts in the zone, rather than just like swinging at whatever’s thrown,” Tucker said. “So I just try to do my best with that and just try to hone on that, and kind of pick my spots on locations where I want and just try to be early with it and try to do a little better job of that.”

Tucker did end the recent homestand on a positive note, delivering the go-ahead hit on Tuesday and drilling a home run in his final at-bat on Wednesday after lining a ball 107 miles per hour off the bat in his previous appearance. As the Dodgers prepare to open a four-game series with the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field, a stadium that ranks first in park factor this year, the four-time All-Star is starting to find his footing at the right time.

Links

Wednesday was an atypical night for Shohei Ohtani, as it marked the first time that he only took the mound instead of both pitching and hitting in a Dodgers uniform. Fans were still treated to a spectacle from the reigning two-time NL MVP, as he delivered six full innings on one-run ball while striking out a season-high 10 Mets hitters.

The decision to have Ohtani strictly pitch on Wednesday was a precautionary move by Dave Roberts, as Ohtani had been plunked on the shoulder by David Peterson on Monday and is hitless since. Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register notes that this will not become a recurring theme on Ohtani’s start days.

‘“If he wouldn’t have gotten hit, he would’ve DH’d today,” he said. “So I just think in this one game, it just makes more sense to give him the best chance to kind of manage the shoulder and the back.

“I think that it’s something I’m going to keep an eye on if it makes sense but not just kind of do it proactively. … It’s got to make sense to not have your best hitter not in the lineup.”

Dylan Hernández of the California Post writes about Edwin Díaz’s knee issues that kept him out for the majority of the homestand. As noted earlier this week, Díaz’s availability for Wednesday’s game was dependent on how his pregame bullpen session fared. He was warming up in the bullpen during the eighth inning on Wednesday, and he would’ve entered the ninth inning for a chance to face his former team had Dalton Rushing not put the score out of reach.

All four Rangers affiliates scored double digits yesterday. Yes, even Hub City.

Hickory starter Jormy Nivar allowed one run in four innings, striking out four and walking one.

Paulino Santana was 2 for 5 with a walk. Yolfran Castillo was had a hit and a walk. Marcos Torres was 2 for 3 with two walks and three stolen bases. Hector Osorio was 2 for 3 with a double, a triple, two walks, and three stolen bases. Josh Springer had a hit, a walk and a stolen base. Daniel Flames was 1 for 3 with a pair of walks. Esteban Mejia was 3 for 5.

Hickory box score

Hub City starter J’Briell Easley threw two shutout innings, striking out three. Anthony Susac struck out two in 2.1 scoreless.

Maxton Martin tripled and drew two walks. Gleider Figuereo was 2 for 4 with a double, a homer and a walk. Yeison Morrobel had a pair of hits and a walk. Malcolm Moore drew a walk. Chandler Pollard drew a pair of walks.

Hub City box score

Frisco starter Winston Santos gave up six runs in three innings, including three home runs, walking two and striking out four.

Ian Moller had a hit and two walks. Keith Jones II was 2 for 6 with a double.

Frisco box score

Dane Acker started for Round Rock and gave up five runs in 2.1 IP, walking four and striking out one. Emiliano Teodo allowed an unearned run in 1.2 IP, walking one and striking out two. Thomas Ireland, apparently sent to Round Rock as a filler arm after the Express lost Cal Quantrill, Gavin Collyer and Marc Church from their pitching staff yesterday, struck out three, walked two and allowed one run in three innings. Robbie Ahlstrom allowed a two run homer in two innings, striking out one.

Justin Foscue had a hit and two walks. Aaron Zavala had a hit.

Round Rock box score

Meet the Mets

The Mets mercifully had the day off yesterday, and they’re set to begin a three-game series at Wrigley Field this afternoon as they attempt to snap an alarming eight-game losing streak.

The team opened a big new development complex in the Dominican Republic.

Will Sammon wrote about the cracks showing in the Mets’ construction of their roster.

Jon Heyman writes about the Mets paying for the decisions that David Stearns made over the offseason.

Jorge Polanco was unable to play on Wednesday and could hit the injured list today.

The Mets traded left-handed reliever Richard Lovelady to the Nationals after designating for assignment for the fifth time in less than a year.

It’s time to worry about the Mets, writes Laura Albanese.

The Mets insist that their eight-game losing streak won’t define their season.

Around the National League East

The Nationals won a back-and-forth game over the Pirates to secure a series win.

Around Major League Baseball

Mike Trout hit his fifth home run of the Angels’ series at Yankee Stadium, breaking a record in the process as the Angels blew out the Yankees. Ken Rosenthal wrote about Trout after that performance.

The Dodgers picked up right-handed pitcher Chayce McDermott from the Orioles in a trade.

The sale of the Padres is almost complete.

With the ABS system in place, the strike zone has gotten smaller, as the league walk rate is the highest it’s been in decades.

The Tigers scored ten runs in a walk-off win over the Royals.

The Rays beat the White Sox by a score of 5-3.

Landen Roupp and the Giants’ bullpen shut out the Reds.

The Brewers won thanks in part to back-to-back bunts.

The Rangers scored nine runs in a win over the A’s.

This Date in Mets History

The first ever Shea Stadium home opener took place on this date in 1964.

It still seems too early to engage in small sample size theater on the Cardinals season. If I’m going to do SSS, this is my choice of topic.

It seems like pre-Arbitration extensions are all the rage this year.  Some people look at these deals as a little on the reckless side.  They ask, “How can team sign a guy to a $100m guaranteed contract when he hasn’t even taken a single MLB at bat?”.  Good question.   

Yet, teams are doing these deals.  Smart people are convincing rich owners that these investments are good bets.  Not just one or two rogue groups, either.  What makes them think PreArb extensions are such a smart thing to do?  As is my want, I dive into the numbers and see if I can discern what they’ve figured out.

Some notes about contracts

Contracts that guarantee money beyond one year pretty much come in three forms:

1. True free agent contracts (think Soto, Ohtani, Harper, et. al.)
2. Contract extensions during the arbitration years (think Garret Crochet, et. al.)
3. Contract extensions during the pre-arb years (Griffin, McGonigle and company).

Each of these classes has their own pattern of contract.  I am only looking at contract extensions for players that either haven’t been through the Arbitration process or haven’t signed a contract that avoids an Arbitration hearing.  I got my data from Cots Contracts and double-checked with Sportrac.   I limited my research to post-COVID, recognizing the evolving dynamics of baseball’s economy.

The economics of baseball – the value of WAR on the open market

One commonly discussed reference point is the notion that a WAR has a value of around $8m on the open market.  It pops up frequently, although it is hard to find any concrete examples of 1 WAR players getting $8m contracts, so I’m a bit skeptical.  A more up-to-date outline is found in a recent Fangraphs article by Ben Clemons.   Highly summarizing a thorough article, he breaks this up into tiers:

Let’s compare and contrast two recent FA contracts using this rule of thumb.  First, we have Shohei Ohtani’s mega-deal.  $700m contract.  10 years.  $70m AAV.  If I apply the MLB approved discount factor of 4.43% to get the net present value of that $700m, and then peanut butter that NPV figure over the expected WAR the Dodgers could expect from Ohtani (with relevant decline factors appropriate for high WAR players), you end up a cool $10m per WAR (rounded).  Interesting.  Right between Tier 2 and Tier 3.  I do not think of Ohtani as a player who fits between Tiers 2 and 3. 

Second, we have Alex Bregman’s contract.  $175m contract.  5 years.  $35m AAV.  Do all the same math with the same methods to get projected WAR and the NPV of the contract value and you end up with a annual per WAR cost of $14.2m rounded. 

So, how does Ohtani getting $10m per WAR compare to Bregman getting $14.2m per WAR?  Seems backwards in a way, given the players.  And neither figure compares all that great with the Tier 3 amount of $12.8m per WAR.

An alternative way to compare contracts

A reference point I propose is that the open market cost of WAR is better expressed by the combination of contract length and the value of the contract in net present value terms (often very different than the headlines). 

Try this, using the Bregman/Ohtani example:

• Ohtani 10yrs/$388m (NPV)
• Bregman 5yrs/$160m (NPV) 

That seems more like it. This view will help us understand all these extension a fair bit better than looking at $ per WAR.  At least, that is what I’m proposing.

Some more about baseball economics – net present value

One thing about that seemingly outrageous $700m Ohtani contract.  It’s not really $700m in today’s terms.  A lot of his money will be paid in the 2040’s.  When you factor in the equivalent value of those dollars in today’s terms, his total contract value (in NPV) is more like $388m.  That’s a bit different than $700m.  Using NPV allows us to compare contracts, smoothing out the impact of deferrals, bonuses and different contract start and end dates. 

Some complexity arises when trying to compare these FA contracts with PreArb Extensions

A key consideration in this analysis is that the pre-arb contracts players and teams are entering into aren’t really open market free agent contracts.  There is no bidding, which ostensibly suppresses the contract values.  I end up using the FA contracts as the end-points which help identify why teams do these pre-arb extensions.   

Another challenge is that projectable WAR for a player who hasn’t taken a PA in the major leagues has a great deal more variability.  Injury risk aside, Ohtani’s general WAR projection is remarkably stable looking when compared with, say, Colt Emerson.  Ergo, per WAR $$ estimations are highly variable.

Are the number of Pre-Arb extensions unusual this year?

I’ve seen some folks speculate teams are doing these deals as some form of hedge against the upcoming CBA drama.  Since 2021, I show teams have entered into 42 pre-arb extensions.  Approximately 7 per year.  How many have occurred this year?  Seven, including the reported McGonigle deal.  Not exactly a stampede, huh? 

What do Pre-Arb deals look like?

As one looks across the spectrum of pre-Arb deals that have been done, they carry some pretty strikingly similar characteristics.  Almost like there is a playbook on this.

1. The most common age for signing is age 24. 
2. Position players get more of these than pitchers do by a 2:1 ratio.
3. The pitchers that get these extensions tend to be at the higher end of the age range, and tend to get the lower end of the length of contract (and dollars). 
4. The usual baseball premiums apply.  Uber-talented shortstops and heavy hitting outfielders make the coin.  Relievers are the street sweepers. 
5. Most pre-arb extensions carry through 1 or 2 years of the players’ Free Agency eligibility (except pitchers). 
6. Most extensions come with 1 or 2 club options, with very minimal buyouts.     
7. Extensions with player options are reserved for the cream of the crop (JRod, Witt).
8. Bonuses and deferrals are comparatively minor consideration is these contracts.

Interpreting the Chart

This chart displays both FA contracts and Pre-Arb Extensions.  Each contract is a point on the chart.  All values are NPV, so effectively in 2025 dollar terms.  I omitted low dollar, low length FA contracts (think: Ramon Urias of the Cardinals).  The comparison I’m after is top FA to top prospects getting PreArb extensions. 

The red points are the FA contracts.  Size of the dots represents the total NPV value of the contract.  Ohtani and Soto get the biggest dots. They have the biggest contracts.

The blue points are PreArb extensions signed after 2020.  Witt’s deal stands out. Good one?

The x-axis displays the guaranteed length of the contract (omits options) and the y-axis plots the AAV of said contract in NPV terms. 

What is with that arc drawn in the middle?

This arc illustrates the natural break between outlier players and everyone else.  FA contracts for Tucker, Soto, Guerrero Jr, and Ohtani.  PreArb extensions for Witt, JRod, Tatis and Franco.  Those are the outliers, both in terms of player and in terms of contracts.

Three common factors to consider with the outlier contracts:

1.  The contracts are for generational talents and are somewhat unique.
2. The AAV of the PreArb Extension for similar outlier prospects is significantly lower than the FA deals.
3. The length of contracts, however, are comparable.

In the end, what we see with this small sample is: PreArb extension allow the home team the opportunity to lock in years of a generational talent, without taking the financial hit or risk that comes with the FA contract.  While the risk the player doesn’t meet those projected heights is present, the dollar risk is comparatively low.  As you probably know without looking at FanGraphs, the teams that entered these 4 PreArb Extensions pretty much got it right, talent-wise. 

What about inside the arc?

These contracts are for stars (or projected stars), but not generational talents.   Hopefully, I don’t have to explain the difference. 

When I look at the contracts in this group as a whole, without seeing names, I notice some similarities:

1.  The contracts inside the arc are not so unique.  Almost cookie cutter.
2. The AAV of the PreArb Extension is significantly lower than the deals for similar star free agents.
3. The length of  FA and PreArb contracts are comparable, with FA skewing a little shorter.  This makes sense given FA contracts are paying for decline years.

What do these contracts accomplish?

For the team, the contracts introduce a notable cost reduction and additional years of control over an emerging star player. 

The way I think of it is … for most situations, a team expects to have player control for 6 years.  Three years at right around major league minimum at $780,000/yr.  Three years will be arbitration awards based, either through hearings or negotiations.  Then they lose the player to free agency.  If they want to retain some value from the player, they end up trading him prior to the Free Agency, shortening the time they extract value, and the time they lose is often the most productive portion of that player’s career (ie. the prime years).   Think of the Nats trading Soto at ~4.5 years of service time.

For a player with a pre-Arb extension, the team accelerates earnings for the player.  First year payments (including bonus money) average around $3.5m, a fair bit more than MLB minimum. The contracts mirror the significant bumps for the years the player would be in Arbitration but remove the obstacle of going through the Arbitration process, which can be … divisive, and removes the whole “platform year” variable for both player and team.  For the “bought out” FA years, the contract sees another bump, but typically not as astronomical as what Free Agents see between their last year of Arb and first year of Free Agency.   

How do these contracts compare to normal Free Agent contracts?

If you think of the extreme examples (Soto, Ohtani), there is the simple reality that most teams can’t swim in this end of the pool.  They don’t have either the capital or the stomach for the risk associated with that kind of contract.  Even with less extreme examples (Tucker, Bregman, Bichette) teams are going to experience very high AAV or longer than desired length.  Either way, the total out-go is too much for many teams to stomach, particularly as they look at the out-years and realize they will be paying premium dollars for a player well past his prime.  How do we think Machado’s contract will look at age 39?

What makes these Pre-Arb contracts smart?

These represent the best alterative to keeping the best players without swimming in the deepest end of the risk pool called Free Agency.

For both FA and PreARb, pitchers and position players have different WAR ranges and get paid differently for that WAR.  Of recent FA contracts, the highest position player contract runs just over $14m per expected WAR.  That is for a 4-5 WAR player.  Teams can buy down that high WAR figure by extending the contract.  For example, Ohtani’s NPV $$ per WAR is slightly under $10m/WAR.  But the Dodgers had to commit $700m to get to that figure.  They did it with years.

The key is the AAV and length.  $140m for 9 years (Griffin) is a fair bit different than $700m for 10 years (Ohtani), especially for those teams where $700m is unreachable.  What the Pre-Arb deal does is give that small- or mid-market team access to a player they think might be that same top 10^th or 20^th percentile class as an Ohtani or Soto or Bregman or Tucker.  Plus the term of the contract is generally aligned with the players ascension years, whereas a FA contract is generally aligned with a players decline years. 

The risk, of course, is higher that Griffin will fail to perform as envisioned that it is Ohtani.  We know what Ohtani is, even with projected decline. 

A Pre-Arb extension to a guy like Konnor Griffin makes sense if a team thinks they can get at least 1-2 WAR out of him for the 9 years.  2 WAR * 9 years = 18 WAR * $8.5m per WAR = $153m.  Thus, Griffins’ expected floor (and the guaranteed portion of his contract) would be right in line with open market costs per WAR for a 1-2 WAR player.  The Pirates are paying for the equivalent of a 1-2 WAR player over the next 9 years, and they have a chance of getting much, much more.  We call it “upside”.  The money guys call it “surplus value”.  Surplus value is what allows a team to assemble a competitive roster without a $300m payroll.  That’s what makes it smart.

For the pump to be primed, a couple of factors must be in play.

First, a team has to have a player that can be realistically expected to produce star-level performance during their prime years.   The contract needs to carry through most of the players peak years, as well, so that maximum value can be extracted from the player. 

Second, the total outlay of the extension needs to accommodate the potential that the player may not meet that expectation.  As with Griffin, the Pirates would certainly prefer the 4-5 WAR player they envision, but the contract would not be burdensome if he turned out to be 1.5 to 2.5 WAR. 

Third, it is optimal if a team can get a year or two of team options to extend the contract if things are going well.  This ensures the team can retain the player at an agreed upon amount without dealing with the wild-west aspect of the free agent bazaar to keep the player.  And yet again avoids the decline years.

When is it not smart to do this?

Pitchers.  They break.  See Stridor, Spencer.

Older players.  If a team can’t strike at the optimal time around age-24 (or earlier), then they probably are better off just working through the traditional process and letting that player go after 6 years, in which case many are already on the wrong side of 30 years old. 

Low ceiling players.  The teams’ ability to evaluate talent is crucial.  They need to discern who really can reach star heights.  There are no guarantees, but it can be easy to mistake a good and useful player for a possible star. 

High risk players.  Make-up, and the ability to evaluate it, may be just as crucial.  A player may have star tools, but if they have high risk features, it may be smarter to roll the dice on the side of the traditional 6-year process. That may be the lesson of Wander Franco.  

Who plays on this field?

Interestingly, most teams participate.  In 6 years, 20 of the 30 MLB teams have done at least one pre-Arb Extension.  Cleveland is the most prolific at 5 such deals. 

The ten team that have not done a PreArb recently?  They fit into 2 neat categories.  Mega-market teams that don’t sweat risk and exposure, so they swim in the deep end of the FA pool: Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, Giants, Rangers, Mets.  The rest are teams not known for their solid management chops or advanced thinking: Rockies, Angels, Marlins.  The tenth team that doesn’t play? Our Cardinals. I suspect being in this list is more a reflection of the Cardinal talent pipeline the last 5-6 years than their management acumen.

Would they?  Should they?

Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera will not sign PreArb extensions.  They are already under contract for 2026 and for both, this is their 3^rd and final pre-arb year.  If they sign an extension, it will be one to avoid Arbitration.  Those contracts have a whole look and feel different than what I’ve enumerated above.

JJ Wetherholt, on the other hand, fits right into to the PreArb model.  23 years old.  Projected star.  Less than 1 year of service time.  The cookie cutter approach to these contracts makes such an extension easy to imagine.

If you view JJW as a middle infielder, a star but not a generational talent, the Cardinals might be inclined to find Tovar and Wilson as SS comps and Rafaela and Keith as 2B comps and think in the range of 7-8 years, $50m-$70m in whatever combination that brings the AAV (non-discounted) at around $10 per year. His representation, of course, will seek to cast him in the same company as Griffin and McGonigle, closer to $15m/AAV (non-discounted). Therein lies the gap that Wetherholt’s representation and Cardinals management will have to bridge. Because of Wetherholt’s age, he is not likely to get the 9th year. As a second baseman, he’s not likely to get the $15m AAV that Griffin got, but maybe in the range of the $10m AAV that Wilson got. Or would the Cardinals be OK with paying Wetherholt as an elite Shortstop? Hard to say. That would be an interesting phenomenon to pay Wetherholt the way Winn would like to be paid for the position Winn plays. I’d guess the compromise would be in the range of 8 years, $100m. If that rings a bell, that would be a comp to Colt Emerson/Seattle.

If you want to consider the downside risk of such a deal, take a look at David Fletcher’s career. Would such an extension be an albatross if that happened? Is the risk/benefit trade-off worth it?