Rating your Yankees hot takes

HOUSTON, TEXAS - APRIL 26: Cody Bellinger #35 celebrates with Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees after hitting a solo home run in the sixth inning against the Houston Astros at Daikin Park on April 26, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Maria Lysaker/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Last week, Andrew put out a post on our feed asking for your hot takes, and you all delivered. With the Yankees rolling and on their way to another competitive season, there’s plenty of things to get ambitious about, so let’s see what’s got you all fired up after a month or so of play.

We’re starting off bold here, Hector.

A 105-win season would easily top the output of any recent Yankees team, with only the 2019 team’s 103-win total coming close. There’s also been a dearth of 100+ win teams overall recently, with no one reaching the mark in the last two years. This year’s team is off to a solid start, tied for the second-most amount of wins in the league and clicking without two of their top pitchers as you noted, but maintaining that pace is a taller task than meeting it for a moment. This is a solid hot take.

Now we’re getting into it. Aaron Judge has just turned 34, to be fair — an age that most would agree is where an athlete exits or starts to exit their prime — but he’s coming off of two consecutive MVP campaigns and not shown any signs of slowing down thus far this season. Yes, the batting average isn’t where it was last season when Judge was spraying hard-hit balls and finding the outfield grass with regularity while winning his first batting crown, but he’s getting his walks and driving the ball at the same elite level that he’s been playing at since 2022.

Realistically, the at-least-soft decline it has to come at some point, and the Yankees have more than recouped enough value already out of the contract they inked Judge to in 2023 to justify whatever depreciation in his game comes in those later years. But will it start now, in 2026? I don’t think we’re there yet, but it’s certainly a hot take to claim that we are.

Ben Rice is putting himself in the national spotlight, isn’t he? The first baseman has been the Robin to Judge’s Batman in the lineup, crushing his 10th home run on Monday to move himself into a tie with James Wood for the third-most homers in the league. Only Munetaka Murakami (who’s been a hell of a steal for the White Sox thus far), Yordan Alvarez, and Judge have slugged more out of the park, and only Alvarez has a higher OPS than Rice with a narrow lead (1.220 for Alvarez vs. 1.191 for Rice). Offense on a level like that has been the best way to get into MVP discussions of late, and Rice has become a much-more competent fielder than he was last year so he’s no slouch on that end either — he just likely won’t get much credit for it unless he starts siphoning some games behind the plate as well. Regardless, he’s in good standing to make this a reality.

This is a two-parter though, so let’s talk about Cam Schlittler a little bit shall we? Entering play on Tuesday Schlittler currently leads MLB with 1.7 fWAR, putting him marginally ahead of his own teammate in Max Fried (1.5) and the likes of reigning two-time Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal and burgeoning Angels ace José Soriano (1.4 each). Soriano has pitched to an absurd 0.24 ERA in six starts, and if he pitches even close to that mark the rest of the way he’d surely draw the eyes of most voters, but Schlittler has actually has a case for surpassing him in the long run: he’s walking just 1.01 batters per nine innings to Soriano’s 3.11, his FIP is a magnificent 1.53 while Soriano runs a (still elite but not as good) 2.23 FIP, and Soriano’s stranding an entirely-unsustainable 100 percent of his baserunners. There’s still plenty of other candidates that’ll be in the field, but Schlittler stands a very good chance of establishing himself as one of the best pitchers in the game and perhaps winning the hardware in the end.

So, we’ve got two takes that on their own sound pretty believable, with the Rice one seeming more likely thanks to the parameters having him finish in the top three as opposed to outright winning. Combined, however? It’s certainly bold to claim that both of the Yankees’ emerging stars will become supernovas in the same season. I don’t think anyone around here would mind if it turned out to be the case.

Now we’re getting crazy; this is what we’re here for. Ryan McMahon has gotten out of his own way on the field, separating his struggles at the plate from his ability to be a Gold Glove caliber defender and providing what the Yankees needed at the hot corner. In the process, finding himself out there might have cleared his head enough to start seeing the ball better at the plate as well, as he’s posted a respectable .757 OPS over his last 15 games.

Is that going to spiral all the way into him heating up enough to make the All-Star Game, let alone start it? Highly unlikely, but in the event that it does happen I’ll be going to you for some lotto numbers.

From your lips to God’s ears my friend. It’s been a rough couple of years trying to enjoy baseball in the Bronx during the summer, with June and July being a near-guaranteed cliff for the team to jump off of only to pick themselves back up during the dog days and avoid an actual collapse. Surprisingly, the 2022 Yankees managed to avoid a June-specific falloff, which is kind of funny because they’re the team that I associate with the trend becoming established: they actually had their best month of the year with a 22-6 record then! (The Cristian Javier-led combined Astros no-hitter notwithstanding.)

Of course, that 2022 squad did do its best to fall out of the division lead later on, and the months of July and August were indeed awful for the Bombers. But it’s funny to look back on the rest of Aaron Boone’s tenure and how the team has performed in the middle of the season with him heading the ship.

They started out pretty well all things considered, with Boone’s inaugural season in 2018 being fairly consistent the entire way through and the 2019 team also thriving in that time span. The 2021 team had the first true June swoon, and the last three rosters have all endured it as well, with the 2023 team maintaining the excuse of not having Judge around to buoy the lineup after that fateful encounter with the Dodger Stadium wall. Four out of five seasons suffering from this symptom, with the lone outlier experiencing it just a little later, is a tough track record to beat, but it sure is a hot take to claim they’ll manage just that. Hopefully this is no joke.

Considering only seven out of the 19 members of our own staff here made this pick, I’ll go out on a limb and say this is a scorcher of a take! The 17-year title drought has plenty of people pessimistic about the team’s chances to go all the way, but in all seriousness the team is built to compete and has the pieces for a deep run, should they survive the marathon that is an MLB season in good standing. The pitching staff is deeper than they’ve ever had in this era, and perhaps one of the deepest in franchise history, but the bullpen is an obvious flaw that could be their Achilles heel.

Luckily, that’s the easiest part of a roster to retool within a season, and they have internal candidates down in the minors should they want to go that route too. There’s only going to be so many more shots the Yankees can take at winning a title with Judge and Gerrit Cole fronting the championship push before they have to pay the real price of those lofty contracts, but if they can go all the way this year it’ll all be worth it.

Orioles-Astros series preview: The final series before things get tougher

WEST PALM BEACH, FLORIDA - MARCH 10: Jose Altuve #27 of the Houston Astros speaks to Willy Vasquez #83 of the Baltimore Orioles after hitting a double during the third inning of a spring training game at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches on March 10, 2026 in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images) | Getty Images

For a third series in a row, the Orioles come up against a team that is currently in last place in its division. This is a surprising statement to make for this next opponent, the Astros, who have consistently been pretty good over the last decade. It is early to give up on them and say the season is a failure, same as it’s early to say the same about the O’s. I’m sure that the Astros would rather be a lot better than 11-17 so far this season.

The problem for Houston so far is its pitching. They are 30th of 30 teams in ERA, bringing a 5.97 team ERA to this series. Yikes. They are 29th in rotation ERA and 30th in bullpen ERA. Two of their active starting pitchers and three of their active relievers have ERAs over 6. Two of their starters, including offseason addition Tatsuya Imai, are on the injured list right now. Neither aspect is working out so far. The Orioles, if you’re wondering, are 18th, with a 4.36 ERA, and the bullpen in particular looks a lot better once you exclude some one-or-two-game-disasters from the mix.

Things are going better for the Astros offense, at least so far. Yordan Alvarez has been going bonkers up to this point in the season, with 11 homers and a 1.220 OPS in 29 games. Former Oriole Christian Walker is having a resurgence after struggling in his first year in Houston; he brings a .946 OPS with seven homers into this series. Imagine having a first baseman with seven homers already this season! Longtime Astros Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa are not at their career peaks, but still doing well.

As we know from the series the Orioles just finished, playing a last place team doesn’t mean anything. The Orioles have their own share of problems to overcome and when they do not do that, they lose a game or a series. It would be nice to see them put it together here because tougher times are coming after this. Following their games against the Astros, 12 of their next 16 games will have them facing current division leaders. That could get ugly!

Game 1: Tuesday, 6:35

  • HOU starter: Kai-Wei Teng – 2.16 ERA, 0.900 WHIP, 4.63 FIP in 16.2 innings
  • BAL starter: Shane Baz – 5.08 ERA, 1.553 WHIP, 3.69 FIP in 28.1 innings

Teng has yet to start a game this season and his high pitch count is 39. It does not look like an opener gambit, but rather one of desperation for lack of other options available. If Teng can give them 60 pitches, they’ll probably be happy with that. He’s not left-handed, nor are any of the Astros starters who are pitching in this series. The 27-year-old from Taiwan was traded from San Francisco over to Houston this offseason. The results have been there out of the bullpen so far. I’m curious to see how that translates multiple times through the order.

Baz needs to have a great start as an Oriole. His best so far is one run allowed over 5.2 innings, a game which the Orioles still managed to use. The other four have not been good. This is more for the sake of the 2026 Orioles season than it is about winning the trade/extension, although obviously it would be nice for the O’s if those things happen as well. We have just not yet seen things out of him to validate Mike Elias’s belief in Baz. The O’s could probably help Baz by putting a better defensive alignment behind him – that .360 BABIP luck is just crazy bad.

Game 2: Wednesday, 6:35

  • HOU starter: Peter Lambert – 3.27 ERA, 1.273 WHIP, 1.85 FIP in 11 innings
  • BAL starter: Chris Bassitt – 6.75 ERA, 2.063 WHIP, 6.27 FIP in 21.1 innings

Lambert, 29, is a player I have never thought about in my life before sitting down to write this series preview. He was drafted by the Rockies and pitched part of four seasons with them through 2024. He spent last year in Japan and returned to the US this year. Astros injuries have pressed him into service – he’s started two games and they’ve gone well for him so far. If you are wired like me, your first reaction to finding out the Orioles are going to face a relatively anonymous starting pitcher is to think it will go badly for them. Take heart: It doesn’t always go as bad as you remember. Or take despair: Sometimes it does go badly.

You might also despair because Bassitt is on the mound. He also needs to have a great start as an Oriole! His bad starts have been worse than Baz’s bad starts, by far; Bassitt only compares favorably if you’re comparing him against Charlie Morton last year. It is the case that Bassitt is like four runs better in ERA than Morton was before he got bounced from the rotation. Still, Bassitt is not pitching well enough to help the Orioles have a good chance to win games he starts. The only Bassitt win this year saw him allow five runs in 5.1 innings and he was lucky to be bailed out by the offense.

Back in spring training, we were getting stories about how Bassitt was motivated since he came so close to winning the World Series last year. The extra motivation isn’t solving whatever else is going on here. Maybe some day the Orioles will get a veteran clubhouse presence who is both a good teammate and a good player.

Game 3: Thursday, 12:05

  • HOU starter: Lance McCullers Jr. – 6.75 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 5.06 FIP in 25.1 innings
  • BAL starter: Brandon Young – 2.53 ERA, 1.125 WHIP, 3.88 FIP in 10.2 innings

We are far removed from McCullers having been a good MLB pitcher. He last started more than 20 games in 2021, missed 2023 and 2024 entirely due to injury issues, and was terrible in 16 games last year. Unfortunately for Houston, he’s picking up where he left off from last year, with all kinds of problems plaguing his game. As you and I both know, this is no guarantee that Orioles hitters will capitalize on this struggling pitcher. It would sure be nice to see them hit several home runs against a guy who’s already been homer-prone this year.

Young made two starts against the Astros during his rookie season a year ago, experiencing the highest of highs and some pretty low lows as well. The first game, he took a perfect through to two outs in the eighth inning, ultimately pitching eight shutout innings on the road in Houston. Six days later, back home in Baltimore, the Astros blasted him for seven runs in a 5.1 inning outing.

I had no interest in seeing Young start MLB games this season; he’s surprised me so far. It’s unlikely he will continue in the mid-2s for ERA but even if he floats up with an ERA closer to that 3.88 FIP, that is potential “save the season” stuff. You know, if enough else goes right with the Orioles for the performance of their #5 starter to make much of a difference.

**

Returning to the thought from before the matchups, a lot of Yankees games are looming after this series. It’s probably going to be tough for fans to believe that the Orioles can play well against the Yankees if they struggle against another last-place team. Houston is scraping the bottom of the barrel for a patchwork pitching staff. The Orioles offense needs to make something happen here, especially since they aren’t facing any lefty starters.

How do you think this series is going to go? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.

It’s hard to see a turnaround for the Mets without Francisco Lindor

Francisco Lindor smiles in a black Mets uniform with an orange construction vest and helmet while standing next to Carson Benge

Making declarations about a baseball team before the calendar turns to May is a fool’s errand, but here we are. The Mets have been so bad to begin the 2026 season that it really does feel like their season has gone down the tubes. On top of the fact that they’re 9-19 and tied with the Phillies for the worst record in baseball, they’re playing without Francisco Lindor—their most versatile and arguably best overall player—for the foreseeable future.

Even if Lindor hadn’t suffered a calf injury last week, there would be major concerns about this version of the Mets mimicking their 2024 counterparts in turning things around after a very ugly start to the season. At the time that the team fell to 24-35 in early June, there were at least some signs of life sprinkled throughout the lineup. Six players were hitting above league average by wRC+ up to that point: Mark Vientos (174 wRC+), J.D. Martinez (132 wRC+), Pete Alonso (119 wRC+), Brandon Nimmo (111 wRC+), DJ Stewart (108 wRC+), and Starling Marte (104 wRC+).

As for Lindor, he had experienced a typical slow start at the plate, but his 95 wRC+ combined with his defense at shortstop and his baserunning had him worth 1.4 fWAR on the morning of June 3, 2024. That led the team at the time.

Beginning with their win on June 3, the Mets turned into one of the best teams in baseball, and Lindor was the best player on the team by a wide margin. Over the course of 426 plate appearances, he hit an incredible .303/.376/.566 with 24 home runs and stole 21 bases, giving him 33 home runs and 29 stolen bases in total at the end of the regular season. He earned 6.2 fWAR over that stretch, too, which accounted for the vast majority if his season total of 7.7. And the last of his regular season home runs was the most important, as it gave the Mets the win they needed to clinch a playoff spot on the final day of the season.

Lindor didn’t complete the Mets’ magical comeback alone, of course. As had been the case even during their miserable skid early in that season, he was joined by plenty of above-league-average hitters for those final few months of the season: Jose Iglesias (137 wRC+), Mark Vientos (126 wRC+), Pete Alonso (123 wRC+), Jeff McNeil (113 wRC+), Tyrone Taylor (113 wRC+), Brandon Nimmo (107 wRC+), Francisco Alvarez (104 wRC+), and Starling Marte (103 wRC+). Even Luisangel Acuña, who made just 40 plate appearances, put up a 166 wRC+ as he joined the team in September, while Ben Gamel had a 108 wRC+ in 30 plate appearances.

And the lesser hitters on the team during the comeback stretch weren’t terrible, as J.D. Martinez (98 wRC+), Jesse Winker (97 wRC+), and Luis Torrens (90 wRC+) weren’t that far below league average. Harrison Bader (78 wRC+) and DJ Stewart (51 wRC+) were the only hitters who got significant playing time while really struggling at the plate.

That brings us back to this 2026 team. It would be tough to see this lineup, which has been the worst in baseball so far this year, turning things around even if Lindor were fully healthy and playing to his career norms. Juan Soto has unsurprisingly been the Mets’ best hitter this year with his .304/.418/.413 line and 141 wRC+, but the only other hitter who’s made at least 40 plate appearances and been better than league average is Francisco Alvarez (117 wRC+). Lindor, somewhat fittingly for this piece, had a 94 wRC+ when he hit the injured list, and he had really started to heat up at the plate in the games leading up to the calf injury.

To salvage this season, the Mets would need Soto to have an otherworldly stretch from now through the end of September. He’s sitting on 0.3 fWAR at the moment and probably needs to play at an 8.3 fWAR pace like he did in 2024 with the Yankees—at least while Lindor is sidelined—to get this Mets team back into a spot where playoff contention feels like a real possibility.

And even if Soto does that and Lindor’s return to major league action comes sooner than expected, the two of them simply can’t do it alone. They’d need other players on base to drive in or to get hits behind them to drive them in. It’s certainly possible—maybe even quite likely—that most of those players will improve the rest of the way. It would be hard not to. Luis Robert Jr. (94 wRC+) has cooled off after a hot start at the plate, and the rest of the Mets’ hitters have only been worse. Mark Vientos (80 wRC+), Tyrone Taylor (69 wRC+), Marcus Semien (65 wRC+), Bo Bichette (62 wRC+), Brett Baty (60 wRC+), the injured Jorge Polanco (53 wRC+), and Carson Benge (52 wRC+) are going to have to figure it out. And it’s very hard to buy that MJ Melendez (145 wRC+) is for real in his first 24 plate appearances as a Met when he has a .500 BABIP and a 45.8 percent strikeout rate.

Again, this mess looks insurmountable even in a scenario where the Mets’ entire roster is healthy. But without Francisco Lindor? It’s just so much worse.

Mariners News: Cole Young, Jose A. Ferrer, and Max Scherzer

ST LOUIS, MISSOURI - APRIL 26: Jose A. Ferrer #45 of the Seattle Mariners delivers a pitch against the St. Louis Cardinals in the ninth inning at Busch Stadium on April 26, 2026 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Happy Tuesday! A rough outing from starter Luis Castillo led to seven earned runs and an eventual 4-11 loss to the Minnesota Twins yesterday. Cal Raleigh’s seventh home run and RHP Alex Hoppe’s MLB debut were the lone bright spots in the otherwise difficult game. Logan Gilbert takes the mound tomorrow against Twins ace Joe Ryan at 4:40 PM.

In Mariners news…

Around the league…

Nationals Minor League Hitters Are Off To Their Best Collective Start In Recent Memory

Through the first few weeks of the professional baseball season in 2026, a headline for the Nationals has been the talent in the farm system blossoming, as many of their top prospects, and a few surprise names, have been raking to begin the year. Chief among that group is shortstop Ronny Cruz, who made the jump to High A Wilmington last week and has continued to go scorched earth, with a 185 wRC+ and 6 home runs in 92 plate appearances between Low A and High A.

It hasn’t just been a couple of names in the Nationals’ farm system making noise; there has been a jump in performance from more bats than ever. Entering today, 22 Nats minor league hitters have a wRC+ of 100 or higher, meaning they are hitting league average or better for their level of the minor leagues. That number is third in all of baseball currently, behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers with 24 and the San Francisco Giants with 28.

To put into context just how impressive a stat this is, let’s take a look at this statistic throughout the years for the Nats. In 2025, the Nats had 11 minor league hitters with a wRC+ of 100 or higher, and only 4 were above 120, a far cry from the 16 Nats with a 120+ wRC+ in 2026.

In 2024, only 9 Nats had a wRC+ over 100, and again, only 4 of them were above 120. 2023 was the same story as well, with 12 Nats above 100 and 4 above 120. Before analytics truly took over the game of baseball, the Nats would have 20+ hitters with league-average or higher wRC+ in the minor leagues, and it appears that under Paul Toboni and his staff, they have finally gotten back to that level.

The uptick in offensive performance for Nats minor league hitters has been in all aspects, as not only are walks up across the board thanks to improved approaches being instilled in hitters, but power numbers have shot up as well. Just take a look at the drastic change from years past to now in the Nats system in the chart below.

Nationals Minor League Hitters With A BB/K Ratio Over 0.50 And ISO Over .150

2026: 13

2025: 2 (0 above Complex League)

2024: 2 (0 above Dominican Summer League)

2023: 1 (Daylen Lile)

So to summarize, after back-to-back seasons with 0 players meeting the 0.50 BB/K ratio and .150 ISO benchmark, the Nats currently have a whopping 13 minor league hitters who are surpassing that number in 2026, and some quite easily, such as Seaver King, who has a 0.80 BB/K ratio and .264 ISO. I expected the new coaching staff to help make improvements to hitters’ approaches at the minor league levels, but it was a process that I expected to make multiple seasons, not one that we would see the fruits of the labor so quickly.

The one Nats minor league affiliate still struggling with their approach is the Rochester Red Wings, as the Nats Triple-A ballclub currently has 7 hitters with BB/K ratios under 0.50, and none who meet the BB/K ratio and ISO criteria listed above. Part of the reason for this is that Triple A has pitchers with both better stuff and command than the lower levels, but I also believe the hitters being older and more set in their ways than the new youngsters on the Nats farm plays a role as well.

It is easier to shape and mold the plate approach of a fresh-faced 19-year-old hitter than a 25-year-old hitter who worked his way through the minors with a different approach. With enough time and reps, hopefully the Nationals coaching staff can break through and help some players at the Triple-A level find increased success.

This Week in the Minors: Drew Beam gets on track

SURPRISE, AZ - MARCH 20: Kansas City Royals pitcher Drew Beam (48) watches from the dugout before the start of the game against the Texas Rangers during a Spring Breakout game on March 20, 2026, at Surprise Stadium at Surprise, Arizona. (Photo by Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

This Week in the Minors is our weekly look at notable performances from all over the system, from big-name prospects and less-heralded guys alike. The mission is to answer this simple question: “Who had a good week?”

Triple-A Omaha Storm Chasers (12-14, 5.5 games back)

It was a rough week for the Storm Chasers; they lost 5 of their 6 games against the Toledo Mud Hens. After winning the first game of the series, 10-5, they lost the next five contests.

Kameron Misner had another powerful week, going 3-for-19 at the plate, with two more homers. John Rave also blasted two more homers. Drew Waters had the best week at the plate, going 7-for-22 with a homer and a pair of doubles.

On the hill, Bailey Falter threw 4.1 innings, giving up 3 hits, 1 run, while striking out 6 batters. Stephen Kolek made another rehab start, he went 3.2 innings, allowing 4 hits, 2 runs, walking 2 and striking out 4. Eric Cerantola threw another scoreless inning and a third, while Steven Cruz also threw 2 scoreless innings.

Omaha returns home for a series against the Louisville Bats, the series runs from Tuesday to Sunday.

Northwest Arkansas Naturals (10-11, 4 games back)

The Naturals split a six game series against the Wichita Wind Surge. Every game was tightly contested, including a Sunday doubleheader to wrap up the series.

Jorge Alfaro was 4-for-11 at the plate, with a homer and a double. Carson Roccaforte was 5-for-22 with a double and a homer. Brett Squires was for-8-24 with 5 doubles, a homer and 7 runs batted in. The Naturals hit a pair of walk offs as well; Daniel Vazquez hit a walk-off two run single in the 10th inning to win a game 13-12. Rudy Martin Jr. hit a walk off homer in game one of the Sunday doubleheader.

On the hill, Henry Williams made two starts, totaling in 10 innings pitched, 4 hits, 1 run allowed, walking 5 and striking out 8. Drew Beam had his best AA start of his career, going 4.1 innings, allowing 4 hits, 1 run, walking 1 and striking out 6. Frank Mozzicato struggled badly in his one start, going just 1.2 innings, giving up 6 runs on 5 hits and 4 walks. Dennis Colleran, who had some Spring Training hype surrounding him and his high velocity continued his season long struggle, giving up 5 runs in a third of an inning over two appearances.

The Naturals remain at home for a series against the Springfield Cardinals, the series runs from Tuesday to Sunday.

Quad Cities River Bandits (10-8 2.5 games back)

The Quad Cities River Bandits took four of six in their series against the Lansing Lugnuts. At the plate, Blake Mitchell was 2-12 at the plate with a homer. Ramon Ramirez was 5-24 with a homer, two doubles and seven runs batted in. Austin Charles was 9-for-25 with three doubles, and five runs batted in. Derlin Figueroa was 4-for-18 with a double.

On the hill, David Shields went 5 innings, allowing 4 hits, 1 run, walking 3 and striking out 6 in his one start of the week. Hunter Alberini threw 2.2 innings, allowing one run on two hits, striking out three. Emmanuel Reyes threw 4 innings of one hit ball in his start, he did walk four but also struck out three. Reyes is a 21-year-old out of the Dominican Republic.


The River Bandits are on the road to take on the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers this week; the series runs Tuesday through Sunday. The River Bandits lost of four of six to the Timber Rattlers when they played earlier this season.

Columbia Fireflies (11-10, 4 games back)

The Fireflies split their six-game series against the Augusta GreenJackets. Jordan Woods, who’s been really good so far on the bump, threw 5 innings of 4 hit ball, allowing 2 runs (1 earned), striking out 4. Woods season ERA now sits at 0.69. Blake Wolters threw 5 innings of 2 run ball, striking out 5 in his start. Wolters season ERA now sits at 1.59. Kendry Chourio didn’t make an appearance this week.

At the plate, Hyungchan Um, a catcher, was 2-for-14 at the plate, with a homer. Um is trying to become the first Royals player from South Korea, and the first Korean born catcher in MLB history. Um just turned 22 last week. Josh Hammond went 6-for-18 with a double, homer and three runs batted in. Sean Gamble on the other hand continues to struggle, he went just 3-for-20.

The Fireflies travel to Myrtle Beach, to take on the Pelicans. The series runs Tuesday through Sunday. The Fireflies took four of six from the Pelicans earlier this season.

MLB Player Props & Best Bets for Today, April 28

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We’ve got a full slate across the big leagues today with some primo matchups. 

My MLB player props analysis will include Tyler Mahle, Willson Contreras, and Andy Pages. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, April 28.

Best MLB player props today

Player PickOdds
Giants Tyler MahleOver 4.5 Ks-120
Red Sox Willson ContrerasOver 0.5 runs-110
Dodgers Andy PagesOver 0.5 runs+110

Tyler Mahle Over 4.5 strikeouts (-120)

Tyler Mahle isn’t known as a huge strikeout pitcher, but he’s missing some bats lately.

The right-hander has cashed the Over in Ks three straight starts, and in four of his five outings this season. Last time out, he threw a gem, tossing seven scoreless against the Dodgers while striking out five. 

Mahle has 26 Ks in 25 2/3 innings of work in 2026, and he’ll face the struggling Philadelphia Phillies tonight. Across 68 at-bats against them, Mahle has 20 Ks, and they’re hitting just .235.

The Phils also just struck out 12 times in their finale against the Braves on Sunday. 

  • Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: NBCSBA, NBCSP

Willson Contreras Over 0.5 runs (-110)

Willson Contreras has been key in the Red Sox winning three games in a row since the firing of Alex Cora. He’s recorded at least one run in three straight contests, coming across the plate five times during that span. 

Contreras was 1-for-4 with a pair of runs in a victory over the Blue Jays on Monday. What’s important is that his teammates are producing below him in the lineup, and Contreras is consistently getting on base right now. 

  • Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: NESN, SN1

Andy Pages Over 0.5 runs (+110)

Andy Pages has been a breakout star so far for the Dodgers. He’s batting .327 with five home runs, 25 RBI, and 16 runs.

Pages has come across the plate in three consecutive games, and he has three hits during that span. The Dodgers are hitting .277 with RISP, and Pages also has a .374 OBP.

The Cuban has 13 of his runs against right-hander pitchers, and Janson Junk takes the hill this evening for the Marlins. He’s also allowed seven earned across his last three starts. 

  • Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Marlins.TV, SNLA
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
  • Prop picks: 7-13, -1.19 units

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Playoff Game Preview: Knicks vs Hawks, Game 5, April 28, 2026

Apr 25, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; New York Knicks forward Og Anunoby (8) grabs a rebound against the Atlanta Hawks during the second half during game four of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The New York Knicks host the Atlanta Hawks tonight at Madison Square Garden in Game Five of their first-round playoff series, tied 2–2. The winner takes command, while the loser will return to Atlanta pondering an elimination game.

Need it be said? The Knicks are the better team. They have led for 92% of the series, not counting their stumbling in Game Three. And even in that troubled tilt, they still rallied to take a lead in the final minute and lose by a single point. If not for two one-point losses, the series would have been yesterday’s news by now.

The book on Atlanta says they play fast, distribute the ball well, generate a lot of turnovers, and make a healthy percentage of three-pointers. Our heroes handled Atlanta easily in Game Four by disrupting their perimeter shooting, limiting it to 24% (10-of-41), while making 45% of their own longballs. The Knicks kept their giveaways to 15 while forcing 19, plus outrebounded (43-38) and out-dimed (23-20 assists). Big surprise, New York had their greatest success yet when they incorporated Karl-Anthony Towns most completely. The big fella chewed up the paint, made the most of his physical advantage over Atlanta’s diminished frontcourt, and finished with a 20-10-10 triple-double (a postseason first for him). More of that, please, Coach Brown.

The longer the series goes on, the more Atlanta’s deficiencies are exposed.

CJ McCollum has averaged 24.5 points in the series while shooting 51% from the field and 33% from deep. He also has made 58% of his free throws (and we give Mitch a hard time about it? This guy’s a guard). The 34-year-old vet is a fine player and delivered some great highlights in the series. His talent is insufficient to carry his team to the promised land—and the league knows it. Remember, he was traded to the Washington Wizards (yes, throwing some shade here) last off-season.

Meanwhile, “Mr. Triple-Double” (13 this season) Jalen Johnson has averaged 19.5 points, seven boards, and 4.8 dimes this series while shooting 29% from deep. He’s totaled a -34 plus-minus. New York’s wings, especially Josh Hart and OG Anunoby, have done an excellent job guarding him. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has averaged 13.8 points across the four games, making just 18 of his 52 field goal attempts.

Atlanta’s 6’10” center Onyeka Okongwu has averaged 13.8 points and 7.3 rebounds through the series, totaling a -27 plus-minus. Off the bench, Jonathan Kuminga has averaged 14.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and almost 29 minutes. Continuing a narrative of inconsistency, the former Warrior helped his squad in Games Two and Three, but fizzled in One and Four. When he’s focused and playing well, he can be impactful. You just never know which version you’ll get. Can you imagine what it must have been like to have both this guy and Jordan Poole on the same team? Yikes.

There’s a fair amount of hand-wringing going on about Jalen Brunson’s performance in the series. To a degree, it’s warranted. Captain Clutch has markedly looked less clutch at times against the handsy Hawks defense. Nonetheless, he’s averaged 25.5 points and 5.3 assists in the four contests and has had a positive plus-minus in each game. He’s shooting 39% from deep this postseason, which is actually two ticks higher than his season average. So, maybe a little slack is warranted? Whattayasay?

And I’d be remiss not to highlight Anunoby, averaging 20.8 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 1.3 steals this postseason. He’s been a cold-blooded beast against the Birds. Meanwhile, Mikal Bridges—who’s deserved much of the ire he’s received for a poor series (7.3 points, 1.5 assists)—might have turned a corner in Game Four with better shooting and more focus in his 32 minutes. We hope he’s on the upswing. New York will need solid contributions from all its starters to make it to the Finals.

But first, they have to get past the Hawks. ESPN gives the Knicks a 73% win probability tonight. That tracks. Prediction: New York enjoys a bellyful of home cooking, slaps the Peaches silly in Game Five, and wins by eight.

Game Details

Who: New York Knicks (2-2) vs Atlanta Hawks (2-2) 
Date: Tuesday, April 28, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Place: Madison Square Garden, Manhattan, NY
TV: Peacock / NBC
Follow: @ptknicksblog and bsky

Blackhawks Player Grades: Connor Bedard Unsurprisingly Leads All Forwards

The Chicago Blackhawks didn’t have a great season in terms of their record, but they did have the opportunity to see a lot of young forwards take big steps. Whether it was developing as offensive players or guys who emphasize their defensive play first, they saw mixed results across the board. 

There was one veteran forward who put up an exceptional amount of goals, while another continued his reign as one of the league’s best depth forwards. The rest mostly struggled at times. 

Every player gets a grade for how their season went, but they are graded on how they played against the expectations that are placed on them.  

Connor Bedard: A

Connor Bedard dealt with a handful of injuries and minor inconsistencies throughout the season, especially in the second half, but it was a truly great individual year for him overall. Bedard had his first 30-goal, point-per-game season. He was also a noticeably speedier and more engaged defensive player, which helped his overall game. After two up-and-down seasons to begin his career, year three proved that he is becoming a legitimate NHL superstar. 

Tyler Bertuzzi: A

Tyler Bertuzzi led the Chicago Blackhawks with 32 goals in 2025-26. He scored on the power play, at even strength, and was a physical presence who was hard to play against on every shift. Is Bertuzzi going to keep pumping out 30-goal seasons? Maybe not, but he is good for an honest effort every single night, which is great for a leader on a young team. Bertuzzi took on an “A” after the trade deadline, and he lived up to it. No matter what line he’s on, and he showed plenty of versatility, he makes it better. 

Frank Nazar: B

Frank Nazar dealt with some inconsistent play offensively in the middle of the season, but he is a solid player who enhances the overall team speed. Nazar is one of those “all situation” players, as he plays a well-rounded game at even strength, makes plays on the power play, and kills penalties. In 2025-26, Nazar set career highs in goals (15), assists (26), and points (41). The former 13th overall pick is waiting for his big breakout, but the signs of stardom are there. 

Ilya Mikheyev: A

Ilya Mikheyev is good for 15-20 goals a season, and that comes with almost zero power-play time. He is also one of the best penalty killers in the NHL, along with being an exceptional defensive forward. Mikheyev wasn’t traded at the deadline, despite being a pending unrestricted free agent, so there will be an emphasis on getting him signed before July 1st; they will be in danger of losing him for nothing. A veteran like him is great for a depth role on a young team for the next couple of years, as he was in 2025-26. 

Teuvo Teravainen: D

Teuvo Teravainen was cold in the second half of the season. By the end of the year, he was playing a fair amount of minutes on the fourth line, which doesn’t necessarily fit a skilled player like him. In 2026-27, if he stays in Chicago, the Blackhawks will need more contributions from Teuvo. 

Andre Burakovsky: D

Andre Burakovsky would get an A-grade for his first half and an F-grade for his second half. His final grade is a D as a result. The bad outweighed the good in the end, which is why it’s not a C-grade. Burakovsky only had a handful of points once the colander flipped to 2026, despite playing most games on the top line with Connor Bedard. Jeff Blashill was loyal to a fault until the final few weeks of the season, when he finally started to demote Burakovsky. In addition to a lack of offense, he turned the puck over with tremendous frequency. He is exceptional at gaining the offensive zone, but he often takes that skill and ruins it by giving the puck away to the opposition. Overall, it was a year to forget. 

Ryan Donato: B

Ryan Donato’s goal total was cut in half this season from a year prior, but his ice time (and role on the team) decreased as well. Donato still scored 15, but he is more of a depth piece that’s used as a middle-six forward more than a top-six guy now. He still gets a B-grade for being a player who accepts and executes any role he is given well without complaining. 

Ryan Greene: B

Ryan Greene was expected to need some time in the AHL to begin the year, but he earned an NHL job at training camp and never gave it back. He managed to have a double-digit goal total while being a “third guy” on a good line. He also showed he can play center and wing, which makes him valuable to the coaching staff. When he was at BU, he did all of the little things the right way, which is why he was the captain, and those intangibles have helped him in the NHL as well. 

Oliver Moore: B

Oliver Moore had his season cut short with a few weeks remaining, but he was a solid player when he did play. He is an incredibly fast player, and he uses that ability to his advantage in all three zones. His offensive ceiling remains to be seen, but he has already proved to be a useful middle-six forward at a bare minimum.  

Nick Lardis: A

No matter where Nick Lardis goes, he fills the net. Whether it's the OHL, AHL, or NHL, he finds a way to score an impressive total for that league. He had 10 goals in 41 NHL games this year, which is a 20-goal pace over a full season. For being a half-season rookie who was taken in the third round, that’s a great number. He will only become more prolific from here. 

Jason Dickinson: C

Jason Dickinson was a 20-goal scorer when he played on Chicago’s top line during the dog days of the rebuild. Since then, he was thrust into a more defensive role, and he thrived. Injuries and inconsistencies kept him at a C-grade this year, but he was given a great opportunity when he was traded to Edmonton. Behind Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, he is a great third-line center. 

Nick Foligno: C

Nick Foligno was a great captain to take on that role after the legendary Jonathan Toews. With that said, on the ice, he is better suited for a team chasing the Stanley Cup at this stage of the game. The Blackhawks traded him to the Minnesota Wild on deadline day so he could play with his brother, Marcus, and finally attempt to win it all. 

Colton Dach: D

Colton Dach was traded to the Edmonton Oilers ahead of the trade deadline. In 53 games with Chicago, he had three goals and six assists for 9 points. With other young players on the way, his future with the team looked bleaker and bleaker, but now he has an opportunity with a veteran team like the Oilers. 

Anton Frondell: A

Since becoming the third overall pick in the 2025 NHL Draft, Anton Frondell has been incredible. He won a World Juniors gold medal with Sweden in January, was one of the best rookies in SHL history, and eventually entered the NHL as a Blackhawk. In his 12 games with Chicago, Frondell had three goals, six assists, and nine points, all while being a reliable player away from the puck. It won’t be long before he’s a high-end two-way player in the best league in the world. 

Landon Slaggert: D

When Landon Slaggert showed up to training camp, he probably expected to play more than 53 games, but some of his young peers have passed him up on the depth chart. He only scored three goals and four assists for seven points in those 53 games, but he does bring value to the group because of his overall toughness. 

Lukas Reichel: F

Lukas Reichel came into the season with a chance to finally stay in the NHL. Instead, he was traded away because the Blackhawks felt that they needed to let him move on. It just didn’t work out for the former first-round pick in Chicago. 

Sam Lafferty: D

Sam Lafferty was unable to stick in the lineup with consistency, but he never complained about his role. He even played defense for one game and embraced the opportunity. The guys in the room loved Lafferty, too, so this wasn’t a totally failed season for him. 

Andrew Mangiapane: C

Andrew Mangiapane was traded to the Blackhawks as a throw-in so the Edmonton Oilers could clear some cap space. In the few games he did play with the Blackhawks, he brought a physical presence to his line while having a couple of scoring chances. He isn’t a big-time goal scorer anymore, but he’s a solid bottom-six forward. 

Sacha Boisvert: C

Sacha Boisvert didn’t play every game once he signed his entry-level deal, as the team wanted him to watch from up top a handful of times. In the games he did play, he had a couple of noticeable moments, including his first goal, some playmaking, and his first NHL fight. Boisvert has a baseline now that will allow him to compete for a job once training camp rolls around. 

Dominic Toninato: C

Dominic Toninato only played in 8 games with the NHL club, but he was a solid veteran in the AHL for most of the year. He gets a C-grade for his willingness to do whatever was asked of him, regardless of what team he was on. 

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Game 5 Aftermath: How the game was won for the Penguins

PITTSBURGH, PA - APRIL 27: Bryan Rust #17 of the Pittsburgh Penguins celebrates a goal by Kris Letang #58 (not pictured) against Dan Vladar #80 of the Philadelphia Flyers in Game Five of the First Round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs at PPG PAINTS Arena on April 27, 2026 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/NHLI via Getty Images) | NHLI via Getty Images

Here are the areas we highlighted in the Game 4 win. Go through it again and check off how many that could also apply to Game 5:

-Sidney Crosby dug deep, embodying a ‘whatever it takes’ mentality on a two-point night

-Kris Letang scored a goal, and beyond that played well over 23 minutes

-Pittsburgh won the goaltending battle for the first time, thanks largely to Flyer goalie Dan Vladar coughing up a goal from behind the net but in no small part to Arturs Silovs playing his first game this playoff and performing very well

-The penalty kill was perfect, the power play was far from it but did score one goal

-Game sequencing mattered; the Penguins had a good start, scored first and never let the Flyers tie the game up again

Aside from the fact that Philadelphia did briefly tie the score at 2-2, almost everything else that was key in Game 4 showed back up again in Game 5. Sidney Crosby grabbed two more points. Kris Letang scored another goal (and this time played almost 25 minutes). Dan Vladar was the victim of another crazy play (this time more of a bad bounce than an outright mistake, but the Penguins aren’t parsing how it happens at this point) while Arturs Silovs was solid. The PK was perfect again, though the Flyers only had two chances on it thanks to better discipline.

In short, Game 5 looked a lot like Game 4, and because of it there is now a Game 6 scheduled.

There was even more to like on a deeper level for the Penguins. Natural Stat Trick had 5v5 high danger chances at 12-5 in favor of Pittsburgh.

Those 12 chances are the most the Pens have generated at 5v5 in a game this series. They only had 11 combined 5v5 high danger chances in Game 3+4. Pittsburgh was able to get back to their speed game more last night. Whether it’s been chipping and chasing the puck, as seen on the early goal by Elmer Soderblom or stacking up long, grinding shifts that eventually wears the Flyers down like the Connor Dewar goal, Pittsburgh is finding a lot more life in their offensive game.

As we touched on the recap, it’s not just been better from the blueline in, it’s become easier to get there. The Flyers had the neutral zone almost completely stifled in the early games of this series. As time has gone along, the Penguins have started to crack the code, often by starting the puck one way than once the forecheck shifts towards that side of the ice then making a pass to the back-side and taking advantage of the extra room exposed. That’s been giving them more speed through the zone, creating decisions on how to enter from that point.

The Penguins still have absolutely no margin of error and face another must win game tomorrow in Game 6. They’ve been able to show some fight and put a scare into the Flyers now with the way the last two games have gone, now we’ll see if they can do it one more time and bring the series back to Pittsburgh again. If a lot of the elements from Games 4 and 5 show up again in Game 6 then they just might have a chance.

Monday’s Brotherhood Playoff News & Links

ORLANDO, FL - APRIL 27: Wendell Carter Jr. #34 of the Orlando Magic drives to the basket during the game against the Orlando Magic during Round One Game Four of the 2026 NBA Playoffs on April 27, 2026 at Kia Center in Orlando, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Fernando Medina/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images

In Monday’s Brotherhood Playoff Action, Orlando took a 3-1 lead over Detroit with a 94-88 win, Oklahoma City knocked Phoenix out, 131-122, and Denver whipped Minnesota, 125-113.

Paolo Banchero racked up 18 points, 8 boards, and 4 assists for the Magic, while Wendell Carter had 12 points, 11 rebounds, and 4 assists.

Jared McCain got off the bench for the Thunder, but barely. He played just one minute and took one shot, which he missed.

Tyus Jones got 14 minutes for Denver, and scored 3 points and dished out 2 assists.

Denver came into this one down 3-1, and Minnesota is really vulnerable: starting guards Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo are both out with injuries, and Naz Reid hurt an ankle in this game.

Comebacks when teams are down 3-1 are rare, but Denver has a reasonable shot at it.

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Former Canucks In 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Šilovs Keeps The Penguins Season Alive

Artūrs Šilovs has once again proven to be a playoff hero. The former Vancouver Canucks goaltender made 18 saves on Monday as he helped keep the Pittsburgh Penguins' season alive in Game 5. Šilovs made his debut in Game 4 and is now 2-0 in the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs. 

If the Penguins are going to pull off the reverse sweep, they will need Šilovs to continue standing on his head. The 25-year-old has stopped 46 of the 50 shots he has faced over the past two games, which is good enough for a .920 save percentage. Šilovs is now 7-5 in his post-season career with a save percentage of .901. 

Šilovs continues to come up clutch when his team needs him the most. He helped the Canucks to Game 7 of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs and led the Abbotsford Canucks to a Calder Cup championship last year. Ultimately, if Šilovs can pull off two more wins against the Philadelphia Flyers, he will go down in history as one of the few goaltenders in NHL history who have helped their team erase a 3-0 series deficit. 

Apr 5, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Penguins goalie Arturs Silovs (37) looks on against the Florida Panthers during the second period at PPG Paints Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark Alberti-Imagn Images
Apr 5, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Penguins goalie Arturs Silovs (37) looks on against the Florida Panthers during the second period at PPG Paints Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark Alberti-Imagn Images

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NBA mock draft 2026: Update after college basketball entry deadline with final lottery odds

PORTLAND, OREGON - MARCH 19: AJ Dybantsa #3 of the BYU Cougars reacts against the Texas Longhorns during the second half in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Moda Center on March 19, 2026 in Portland, Oregon. (Photo by Soobum Im/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The 2026 NBA Draft class has been hyped for years. The big pay off is finally coming on May 10 with the drawing of the draft lottery, and now the odds for the ping-pong balls have been finalized.

The Washington Wizards, Indiana Pacers, and Brooklyn Nets earned the top odds with a 14 percent chance at the No. 1 overall pick. The Utah Jazz and Sacramento Kings each have an 11.5 percent chance at No. 1, while the Memphis Grizzlies have the next-best odds at nine percent. The Atlanta Hawks have a 6.8 percent chance at winning the top-pick thanks to their brilliant trade with the New Orleans Pelicans, and then Atlanta also has another three percent chance at the top pick thanks to swap rights with the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Dallas Mavericks have a 6.7 percent chance at No. 1, the Chicago Bulls have a 4.5 percent chance at winning the lottery, and the Golden State Warriors have a two percent chance at the first pick. The Thunder (1.5 percent thanks to a swap with the Clippers), Heat (1 percent), and Hornets (0.5 percent) round out the lottery.

This draft class has already lost some talent to NIL money. UConn’s Braylon Mullins, Duke’s Patrick Ngongba, Florida’s Thomas Haugh, Arizona’s Motiejus Krivas, and Baylor’s Tounde Yessoufou were all projected first-round picks in our previous mock draft before deciding to return to school. Only Yessoufou left himself the option to still enter this draft.

The best thing about this draft class is you don’t need the No. 1 pick to find a future franchise player. Just landing in the top-4 should get the job done. Here’s our latest 2026 NBA mock draft using the lottery standings as the order.

PickTeamPlayerPositionSchoolAge
1Washington WizardsAJ DybantsaWingBYUFreshman
2Indiana PacersDarryn PetersonGuardKansasFreshman
3Brooklyn NetsCameron BoozerForwardDukeFreshman
4Utah JazzCaleb WilsonForwardNorth CarolinaFreshman
5Sacramento KingsDarius Acuff GuardArkansasFreshman
6Memphis GrizzliesKeaton WaglerGuardIllinoisFreshman
7Atlanta Hawks (via Pelicans)Kingston FlemingsGuardHoustonFreshman
8Dallas MavericksMikel Brown Jr. GuardLouisvilleFreshman
9Chicago BullsAday MaraCenterMichiganJunior
10Milwaukee BucksBrayden BurriesGuardArizonaFreshman
11Golden State WarriorsYaxel Lendeborg ForwardMichiganSenior
12Oklahoma City Thunder (via Clippers)Nate AmentWingTennesseeFreshman
13Miami HeatKarim LopezForwardNZ BreakersBorn 2007
14Charlotte HornetsJayden Quaintance Center/ForwardKentuckySophomore
15Chicago BullsMorez JohnsonCenter/ForwardMichiganSophomore
16Memphis GrizzliesDailyn SwainWingTexasJunior
17Oklahoma City Thunder (via 76ersHannes Steinbach Forward/CenterWashingtonFreshman
18Charlotte Hornets (via Magic)Cameron CarrWingBaylorJunior
19Toronto RaptorsLabaron Philon GuardAlabamaSophomore
20San Antonio Spurs (via Hawks)Chris CenacCenterHoustonFreshman
21Detroit Pistons (via Wolves)Bennett Stirtz GuardIowaSenior
22Philadelphia 76ers (via Rockets)Allen GravesForwardSanta ClaraFreshman
23Atlanta Hawks (via Cavs)Joshua JeffersonForwardIowa StateSenior
24New York KnicksIsaiah EvansGuardDukeSophomore
25Los Angeles LakersHenri VeesaarCenterNorth CarolinaJunior
26Denver NuggetsKoa PeatForwardArizonaFreshman
27Boston CelticsTyler TannerGuardVanderbiltSophomore
28Minnesota Timberwolves (via Pistons)Meleek Thomas GuardArkansasFreshman
29Cleveland Cavaliers (via Spurs)Christian AndersonGuardTexas TechSophomore
30Dallas Mavericks (via Thunder)Trevon BrazileForwardArkansasSenior

Let’s dive into one of the biggest themes to watch on lottery night.

NBA Draft 2026 lottery odds to land a top-4 pick

It feels like every team in the lottery would be thrilled just to land in the top-4. Here are the odds each lottery team has to land in the top-4, via Tankathon:

Caleb Wilson might be rising into the top-3 — or higher

Caleb Wilson didn’t play in the 2026 NCAA tournament for North Carolina after suffering a broken bone in his left hand in February and then a broken thumb in his right hand in March. Those injuries shouldn’t and reportedly haven’t dulled NBA interest. In the last few weeks, there have been reports that some teams value Wilson more than Duke forward Cameron Boozer, and that he could even be the second player taken on draft night.

Wilson has the single best highlight reel in the class for my money. Sit back and enjoy:

There’s a compelling sales pitch for the UNC forward. He’s a freak athlete at 6’10 who dunks everything (67 dunks in 24 games), he’s a high-motor defender who guards all over the floor, he’s a good passer, and he has an ability to create scoring opportunities for himself away from the rim with excellent mid-range shooting touch. The two big knocks on him are his outside shooting and ball handling. Wilson is not a good three-point shooter right now after making 25.9 percent of his 27 attempts from deep in college. He also isn’t really a viable on-ball creator because his lack of handle refinement limits where he can get on the floor. For now, he’s an electric play-finisher on offense and a buzzsaw on defense who should be an absolute terror in transition from day one.

I’ve been consistent that Boozer is my top player in the class. Boozer and Wilson were teammates on the Nike EYBL circuit for Nightrydas, and there was never any question who the best player on the team was (it was Boozer). Wilson did arguably out-play him in the first Duke vs. North Carolina game this season, which was one of the best prospect matchups we got all year in college hoops.

I have liked Wilson for a while, even putting him on my 2023 list of the best NBA prospects in high school hoops. I’m considering sliding him up to No. 2 on my board, and I would not be shocked if he’s eventually picked in the top-3. Just moving up to No. 4 in the lottery — likely in position to draft Boozer or Wilson — would be an incredible boon for teams like the Bulls, Warriors, and Bucks, who all have long-shots odds entering the drawing. Wilson is so much better than the No. 4 overall prospect in a typical draft, and that’s a big reason why this class is so highly-touted.

Who moves up after the college basketball early entry deadline?

I thought Braylon Mullins and Patrick Ngongba were lottery-caliber talents. Instead, both are going back to UConn and Duke respectively. Thomas Haugh was considered a lottery pick on ESPN’s big board, but he’s going back to Florida for arguably the biggest NIL bag in college basketball history. Flory Bidunga’s decision to transfer to Louisville rather than enter the draft (though he is on the early entry list) is another hit to the depth of the class. It’s possible players like Tyler Tanner, Allen Graves, Juke Harris, Alijah Arenas, and Ebuka Okorie — who could all be drafted in the first round — eventually decide returning to school is their best decision. I named Graves as the best available player in the transfer portal, and there are some whispers that he could end up at Duke if he doesn’t enter the draft.

Here’s full early entry list, via Jeremy Woo:

The list of returners undeniably impacts the second half of the first round and the entirety of the second round. Expect plenty of seniors to hear their names once we get into the 20s, and new prospects are already emerging in pre-draft camps like the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament. I enjoyed this YouTube breakdown from Ben Pfeifer on the biggest winners of the PIT.

I have Henri Veesaar moving up into the first-round in this mock draft thanks to all the players slated to return to school. The North Carolina center was one of the my favorite potential second-rounders in this class for his interior scoring efficiency and three-point shooting improvement, but now he might move up by default. It feels like Christian Anderson is likely staying the draft too, but there’s only so many potential landing spots for smaller guards. I’ve also projected Spanish guard Sergio de Larrea as a first-round pick at times during the year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts to generate buzz again in the lead up to the draft. Arkansas big man Trevon Brazile — an athletic play-finisher with floor spacing ability — was my pick for the senior who sneaks into the end of round one due to so many players being lured back to college by NIL money.

The withdrawal deadline is only 10 days before the draft on June 13 at 5 p.m. ET. The draft board will continue to evolve until then.

Michigan’s 3 stars all end up in the lottery

The Wolverines were a wagon on their way to a college basketball national championship. While I would expect Elliott Cadeau to return to school, I think Morez Johnson will be joining Aday Mara and Yaxel Lendeborg in the draft.

  • I also spent a lot of time chatting with Aday Mara throughout Michigan’s March Madness run. Read my feature on how Mara developed into a lottery pick after two years on the bench at UCLA.
  • Morez Johnson is a Chicagoland kid who didn’t leave the area for a prep school like so many of his highly touted peers. In this mock, Mara and Johnson are reunited with the Chicago Bulls, who earned a second top-15 pick via the Portland Trail Blazers thanks to their 2021 Lauri Markkanen trade.

NBA Draft 2026 lottery date, TV time, and streaming

Here’s what you need to know about this year’s draft lottery drawing:

Date: May 10

Time: 3 p.m. ET

TV: ABC/ESPN

Streaming: Watch ESPN

Marvin Bagley III reinvented himself with the Mavericks — but what’s his future in Dallas?

PHOENIX, AZ - APRIL 8: Marvin Bagley III #35 of the Dallas Mavericks dunks the ball during the game against the Phoenix Suns on April 8, 2026 at PHX Arena in Phoenix, Arizona. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Kate Frese/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images

When Marvin Bagley III came to Dallas from in the trade that sent Anthony Davis to the Washington Wizards as the 2025-26 NBA Trade Deadline approached, he represented pure salary cap relief.

He was a letdown second overall draft pick who came off the books when the season was over. He was a key part of the Mavericks’ ticket to getting off Davis’ albatross of a contract for its remaining two years. He was an underachiever who had been done no favors with the talent surrounding him in his seven-plus NBA seasons.

The reaction to Bagley’s arrival in Dallas was a resounding “meh,” and rightly so.

But what if there’s something there? Bagley showed a budding talent for stretching the floor and the ability to finish on the break and execute at the dunker position in his 22 games with the Mavericks. He also showed off a budding 3-point stroke, shooting 48.5% from beyond the arc on his final 33 attempts. The Mavericks’ broadcast crew repeated the talking point that the coaching staff was encouraging Bagley to shoot more from the outside after he arrived. All the while, Daniel Gafford, his mate in the Mavericks’ frontcourt, was a man in the throes of full-on decline throughout Dallas’ season in the wilderness.

It all adds up to Bagley being an interesting name as the NBA offseason approaches.

Season in review

After averaging 10.1 points and 3.1 rebounds per game with the Wizards for 38 games to start the year, Bagley increased his production to 11.0 points and 4.4 rebounds after being traded to the Mavericks. Modest gains, to be sure, but he turned some heads in his first few games with the team and throughout the rest of the season with his knack for knocking down timely 3-pointers.

Bagley has been good from the outside for stretches at a time during his eight years in the league. When he got to Washington for the last part of the 2023-34 season, he shot 8-of-17 from deep in his first 24 games with the lowly Wizards. He was shooting just over 42% from 3-point land in the first 38 games of 2025-26, albeit on fewer attempts per game than he saw once he arrived in Dallas.

It’s at least plausible to view his stunted development as a byproduct of being on bad teams for the entirety of his career. Dallas, as currently constructed, is no world beater, mind you, but what if this situation is a better fit for Bagley, and what if he could take the next step with Dallas on what should be an affordable next contract?

Bagley played 24 minutes, scoring 16 points and grabbing 12 rebounds in his first game in a Mavericks uniform, in a 138-125 loss at the San Antonio Spurs on Feb. 7. Three games later, it was 15 and 13 in 24 minutes during a 122-111 loss at the Minnesota Timberwolves. Two games after that, Bagley scored 22 on 10-of-13 shooting in a 123-114 win at the Brooklyn Nets.

It’s hard to know what to make of these kinds of performances during the NBA Silly Season of February-April. But Bagley was a spark off the bench, where Gafford, hampered by various injuries including nagging ankle issues throughout the year, was largely a bump on a log.

Bagley wrapped up the season by scoring 20 or more points in three of four games as his minutes increased when March turned to April. He didn’t turn the ball over when it came to him, and on a team that finished the year 18th in the NBA in turnovers per game (14.5), that’s a point in his favor, too. He recorded more than two turnovers only once in his 22 games with the Mavericks to finish the year.

Best game

Bagley’s best performance for the Mavericks came as part of that four-game stretch late in the season against another Western Conference playoff contender. He poured in 26 points on 11-of-14 shooting from the field, including 3-for-5 from 3-point range and pulled down nine boards in 27 minutes in a 100-93 win at the Portland Trail Blazers on March 27. The opponent matters here because Portland still had hopes of securing the seven-seed in the west at the time with the dreaded play-in games looming. This was not a bottom-feeder with nothing to play for. As he showed earlier in the year in games at San Antonio and Minnesota, Bagley is up to the task against better than average competition.

He made three 3-pointers again three games later in a 112-107 loss at the Phoenix Suns. Bagley shot a collective 31-of-43 from the field in that four-game span. If he can be an efficient scorer playing with an effectively empty guard room running with him, is there even another step up he can make with better guards on the roster?

Contract status

Bagley is an unrestricted free agent at season’s end. Retaining him after a few raised eyebrows to close out the 2025-26 season is by no means guaranteed. He made just over $3 million last year on his previous one-year deal. Even after showing improvement, he’s a guy you could get for under $10 million per year on another one- or two-year deal this offseason.

Looking ahead

Bagley’s potential return to the Mavericks may seem like a no-brainer, but with Dereck Lively II coming back after missing most of the year with swelling in his foot and with Gafford’s 3-year, $54-million contract extension kicking in next year, the Mavs may find it easier to chalk up Bagley’s improvement to Silly Season shenanigans and let him walk in free agency.

You want versatile bigs on your roster, though, and with the injury-prone Lively and a guy Luka Dončić made look a lot better than he may actually be in Gafford as the only two big ahead of Bagley in the Dallas pecking order, it may pay dividends to kick the tires on a guy like Bagley.

If a 15-point-per-game guy is hiding somewhere under all Bagley’s unmet expectations, why not try to be the team that solves the riddle of his first eight years in the league?

Sixers’ season on the brink Tuesday as Celtics host Game 5

Philadelphia, PA - April 26: Philadelphia 76ers centers Andre Drummond and Joel Embiid on the bench in the fourth quarter. The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers played in the first round of the NBA Playoffs at Xfinity Mobile Arena on April 26, 2026. (Photo by Danielle Parhizkaran/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) | Boston Globe via Getty Images

The Philadelphia 76ers’ 2025-26 season could be approaching its swan song, with the Boston Celtics just one win away from closing out the first-round playoff series and eliminating the Sixers.

Though, to be fair, I think “swan songs” are supposed to be beautiful or brilliant. This feels quite far from that.

The Sixers trail the Celtics 3-1 in the first-round playoff series that has been a rollercoaster of emotions. Game 1, an embarrassing defeat. Game 2, a triumphant and somewhat unexpected level of turnaround, stealing a win in Boston. Game 3, putting up a fight but back making old mistakes in a close loss. Game 4, the excitement of Joel Embiid’s return quickly marred by yet another crushing defeat.

Like I said, a rollercoaster for sure. One that could come to an end with a loss in Tuesday’s Game 5.

The Celtics’ injury report remains clean as of Monday night. For the Sixers, only Embiid appears, currently listed as probable (post appendectomy surgery recovery). One can imagine that, based on history, it would take a hell of a lot to keep Embiid off the floor for a game like this. On Sunday, he had been listed as doubtful before being upgraded to questionable in the afternoon and then ultimately played 34 minutes (for a 26-point, 10-rebound double-double) in that contest — just 17 days after having his emergency appendectomy.

We’re at Game 5 of this now, there’s not a whole lot new to say in terms of the matchup. We have all seen what the Celtics are capable of. Not just their starters, but their bench too. On any given night, there’s someone to carry the weight for Boston. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were nearly inconsequential through the first two and a half quarters of Game 4, and yet the Celtics were still already carrying a comfortable lead when those two got going thanks to Payton Pritchard repeatedly punishing the Sixers for giving him space behind the arc.

The Sixers had just one game of ever looking like they were one step ahead of the Celtics, utilizing a high screen pick-and-roll on repeat. It earned Philly their lone win in the series, but Boston adjusted effectively between games and the Sixers were out of luck again. It’s not just one thing that seems to be the Sixers’ particular weakness in this series — it’s everything. Poor shooting, non-existent rebounding, being completely lost on defense, puzzling rotation decisions and not adjusting to or learning from mistakes. All of those errors facing a stacked, effective Celtics lineup is simply not going to cut it.

The reality is that, even if the Sixers steal away a game (or maybe even two) from the Celtics, Philadelphia as an organization is so far behind Boston at this point. The Celtics have big name stars performing in the big moments, an incredible supporting cast down the depth chart filling in the gaps as well as proactive coaching. The Celtics are everything the Sixers organization has tried to claim they are. But they’re the real deal, while the Sixers continue to kick the can on the same issues season after season. This is where that strategy has taken us.

This is truly not me just indulging in baseless negativity. We at Liberty Ballers would all love to be writing about games of scrappy fight and fire like Game 2 and even parts of Game 3. I personally would love to be proven wrong and have them come out tonight looking like a different team than they did on Sunday. But these issues have been the same, evident and obvious, season after season.

Don’t get me wrong, I think we all knew coming into this series that the Sixers didn’t realistically stand a chance against this Celtics squad. Like I said, these are simply two organizations in two very different places. I just think maybe my expectations were at least a little higher than what we saw in Games 1 and 4. It’s one thing to lose a game to a much better team, it’s another to — for example — not grab a single offensive board (on a night you’re not making any shots) until well into the third quarter. It’s one thing to get beat, it’s another to basically not even step in the ring.

An upset win on Tuesday night would keep the Sixers alive another day, forcing a Game 6 in Philadelphia that would be played on Thursday, but it’s going to take a major, complete 180-degree turnaround from that last contest. I’d love to see it, but it’s going to take a hell of a lot.

You’ll need Embiid moving and dominating even with lingering affects of the appendectomy. You’ll need Tyrese Maxey to find a way to produce even with Embiid on the floor, while also clearly still dealing with the pinky issue. You’ll need rookie VJ Edgecombe to sink some buckets and especially some threes. You’ll need a bench unit that isn’t going to only put up 10 points total. You’ll need to actually rebound the ball and not give the Celtics six shot attempts in the same possession. And that’s not even all the stars likely required to align, I’m just stopping myself before it gets too redundant.

But, hey, it would be very Sixers to extend this series another game just to drag things out a bit, right? Can we at least get one more fun Edgecombe performance to get excited about?

Game 5 tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET.

Game Details

When: Tuesday, April 28, 7:00 p.m. ET
Where: TD Garden, Boston, MA
Watch: ESPN
Radio: 97.5 The Fanatic
Follow: @LibertyBallers