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As we near the end of June, the Washington Nationals sit 14 games under .500 with the third-worst record in the NL. They've been publicly criticized by Ken Rosenthal for failing to finish their rebuild after a 2019 World Series, and they recently lost a series to the Colorado Rockies. However, if you sift through all of that noise, you'd find that, in addition to the emergence of James Wood, the Nationals are getting a breakout season from shortstop CJ Abrams and now have two offensive cornerstones who are not yet 25 years old.

Abrams has shown flashes of high-level talent before, but has been unable to keep it up for an entire season. While there's no guarantee he can do it this year either, the 24-year-old is in the midst of the best stretch of baseball in his MLB career. He's slashing .287/.360/.491 with 52 runs scored, 26 RBI, 11 home runs, and 16 steals in 67 games. He has a career-high walk rate, a career-low strikeout rate, a career-low swinging strike rate, a career-high barrel rate, and career-best exit velocities.

Surely some of that has to do with a different approach to his offseason training or preparation, right?

"I got stronger in the off season, for sure," admitted Abrams, but most of his success, in his mind, just comes down to "swinging at better pitches this year." For Abrams, that means "Staying around in the heart [of the zone] and trying to give the good pitches to the pitcher."

When you look at his swing metrics, you can see what he means. Abrams' chase rate (or O-Swing%) is nearly identical to last season, but his zone swing rate is down 6%. That has led to a jump in zone contact rate and contact rate as well. Abrams is taking more called strikes, but he's only doing so on pitches that he can't do damage on. As he says, he's giving those good pitches to the pitcher and then hoping the next pitch is one he can do more with.

If you look at Abrams' Statcast page, you'll see a huge improvement in his swing decisions in the shadow area of the strike zone. The shadow area is the edges of the strike zone, essentially half in the strike zone and half just off the plate. Those are often pitches that a hitter can't do tons of damage on, so it makes sense that Abrams' decision to "give those to the pitcher" is working out for him.

Statcast

Abrams is swinging at 57% of the pitches in the shadow this season and posting a +10 Run Value after swinging at 60% of them in 2024 and posting a -22 Run Value. That's a change of +24 in Run Value, which is extraordinary, and Abrams' Run Value of +2 in the shadow zone ranks 10th in all of baseball. Since his swing rate in the shadow area is down only 3%, his improvement isn't just because he's taking pitches in that area significantly more, but that he's making much better decisions on both his takes and his swings.

As a result, Abrams is also now seeing more pitches in the heart of the strike zone than last year, likely because he is not swinging as much when the pitch isn't there. So even though his performance in the heart of the zone is worse, his overall performance has been better because of the increased amount of good pitches he's seeing.

The struggles in the heart of the zone may be connected to the fact that he's taking those pitches more often. In 2024, Abrams saw 26% of his pitches in the heart of the zone and took just 25% of them. In 2025, he's seeing pitches in the heart of the plate 28% of the time but taking them 31% of the time. Obviously, the heart of the zone is over the middle of the plate, and hitters can do the most damage there, so the only reason you'd take a pitch there is if you're fooled or it's early in the count and you get a pitch that you're not looking for and choose not to swing at. Abrams had a +13 Run Value when he swung in the heart of the plate last year, but just a +1 Run Value when he swings in the heart this year, so perhaps he needs to recalibrate to be a bit more aggressive when a pitcher makes a mistake.

Another change that Abrams has made this year that has contributed to his offensive growth has been in his stance.

Statcast

As you can see from the column all the way on the right, Abrams has gone from a stance that was three degrees closed off in 2024 to a stance that is two degrees open in 2025. He has also widened his stance, adding almost 5.5 inches of space between his feet. His depth in the box and distance from the plate are essentially the same, but the wider stance has allowed him to get the ball out front a little bit more, which may have a lot to do with why he's hitting the ball harder this season.

"I didn't really do it on purpose," admitted Abrams. "It kind of just happened with my thought process. I want to stay on that back hip as long as I can, and I guess the wider stance helps with that. I want to be in the best position I can be to hit all pitches, being able to be on the fastball and also stay back on the off-speed. So just being in that back hip kind of helps with all that."

It's a useful insight from the 24-year-old that sometimes a mechanical change doesn't start with the mechanics themselves but with the intention. Abrams wanted to keep his weight back so that he didn't get out in front of breaking balls. That led to a focus on putting weight on his back leg, which led him to naturally shift his stance to something that felt more comfortable and in line with his new intention.

So far, that change has worked. Abrams is pulling the ball less this season and also hitting it in the air less often, but he's making the most of his contact with a career-best HR/FB ratio and career-best .204 ISO. Some of that could also come down to him flattening his attack angle a bit, but that would be another change that's simply a side effect of a process change for Abrams.

"I think it's all just [swinging at] better pitches," he said. "You want to hit balls hard. You don't want to hit them too high or too low, so just kind of hard line drives is the thought, and I try to execute that."

These are important lessons learned by a player who seems young at 24 years old but has been doing this for a while now.

Abrams was the 6th overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft and was the 8th-ranked prospect in all of baseball in 2021 before he made his MLB debut with the Padres in 2022. He hit just .232/.285/.320 in 46 games with the Padres as a 21-year-old with a 27/4 K/BB ratio. He was then shipped off the Washington as part of the Juan Soto trade that also included teammates MacKenzie Gore and James Wood.

He put together a decent season in his first full MLB year with the Nationals in 2023, hitting .245/.300/.412 with 18 home runs and 47 steals. While the steals carried his value from a fantasy perspective, Abrams had an aggressive approach that produced just a 5% walk rate with a 53% swing rate overall. He took a step forward in the first half of the 2024 season but seemed to fade in the second half, slashing .203/.260/.326 with a nearly 24% strikeout rate.

While that may have set off some alarm bells in regards to Abrams' true ceiling, the truth is that the saying "Prospect growth is not linear" is one of the more accurate idioms out there. It takes young players, especially young hitters, time to adjust to the gap in talent between Triple-A and the majors. We saw that this year, with Kristian Campbell starting the year with a strong April and then being demoted back to Triple-A by the middle of June, and Jac Caglianone tearing up the minors before coming up and struggling in his early MLB plate appearances.

For Abrams, the key to navigating that gap in talent was unlocking a level of discipline that he didn't need to have when he was coming up as a prospect.

"Pitchers are better in the majors," he said matter-of-factly. "They execute better. They hit their spots and all that, so being able to be disciplined at the plate is probably the biggest thing that I learned. You know, you can't swing at everything. Those hits you get in the minors are probably not hits here, so being able to drive the ball in the heart of the zone is the biggest adjustment. Laying off those good pitches and trying to get the ones that you can get in the heart of the zone, and just take your walks."

That growth as a hitter is a clear sign of Abrams' maturation as a player and a testament to the lessons you can learn when you've had four seasons against MLB pitching. However, despite his years of experience and the relative youth of his teammates, Abrams, who turns 25 in October, doesn't see himself as any kind of veteran leader.

"I still see myself as one of the young guys," he smiled. You know, I came up with them, kind of, over there in San Diego." Gore, who came with Abrams from the Padres, is 26 years old, which makes him something of a veteran statesman on this team; however, Wood is just 22 years old, and Robert Hassell III, who also came over in the Juan Soto trade, is just 23 years old. Dylan Crews, who began the year as the team's starting centerfielder before getting hurt, is 23 years old. Brady House, the team's starting third baseman, is 22 years old, and Daylen Lile, the starting right fielder, is also 22 years old.

Still, despite being older than those starters and having years more experience against MLB pitching, Abrams is more focused on "just seeing them being able to be in the bigs and start their learning experience. We're all still getting better, for sure."

It seems the Nationals' growth as a team will come from learning together. "We have to come together as a group, like we have been," said Abrams. Perhaps his teammates will see the adjustments Abrams is making at the plate or talk with him about it in the dugout, but the newfound patience the shortstop has found has unlocked a level of potential that always seemed to be lurking under the surface.

On the season, Abrams is the 34th-ranked player in fantasy baseball, according to FanGraph's Player Rater, and is the 6th-most valuable shortstop, behind Elly De La Cruz, Jeremy Pena, Trea Turner, Francisco Lindor, Bobby Witt Jr., and Jacob Wilson. Of that group, De La Cruz, Wilson, and Abrams are the only ones 24 years old or younger. Abrams and De La Cruz are also the only two of that group with 15 or more steals and double-digit home runs, putting them in a grouping by themselves at the position.

"I think there's a bright future for sure."

Perhaps for both Abrams and his young Nationals teammates.

As stolen bases continue to rise league wide, I will be here every Wednesday to help you track important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.

Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the actual base runner themself. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most frequently will help you to figure out who can swipe some bags over the next week.

Last week,I mentioned that stolen bases had trended down over the prior seven days. Well, they were low again this week. Not quite as low, but the 104 steals were the second-lowest in a week all season, only more than the 99 from the week before.

We’ve dealt with some extreme heat across most of the country lately. Perhaps that is leading to some more tired legs.

MLB Starting Pitcher News: Chase Burns’ debut, Kumar Rocker cuts it up

Eric Samulski discusses four trending starting pitchers and how interested we should be for fantasy baseball.

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Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard over the past seven days.

Hello Ronald Acuña Jr. After swiping one base in his first 24 games since returning from his second torn ACL, he’s now stolen three over his last five without being caught. He’s blatantly been the best hitter in baseball since returning. Stealing bases again would be icing on the cake.

Also, pay attention to Tyler Freeman and Brady House. Both are playing everyday and their teams – the Rockies and Nationals – are so bad that they want to see what they have in them. So, they’ll probably keep running as long as they’re playing.

Now, here is the overall stolen base leaderboard on the season.

José Caballero remains atop the leaderboard. He may not play everyday, but is a weapon on the basepaths when he does. That can make him a bit of a headache to roster in weekly leagues and a potential league-winner in daily leagues.

Victor Scott II has been on base a bit more often lately. In turn, he’s also stealing more bases. If only he could steal first base too.

Next, here are some players that we’d hoped would be more aggressive or efficient on the base paths.

Luis Rengifo and/or Jacob Young might be on their way to the least efficient base stealing seasons of all time. It’s impressive how much they continue to run with such little success.

Shohei Ohtani only pacing for 20 or so stolen bases hurts his value a lot. If that’s his ceiling there while pitching – and he’s only still just building up – it will be nearly impossible to justify him as the number one overall pick in standard, weekly leagues next season.

Now, let’s go over the most important stolen base trends over the past week.

Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets

The usual suspects – Marlins, Rockies, and Astros – each had solid weeks in terms of limiting the run game. So, we must look elsewhere for stolen base targets over the last seven days.

No team allowed more stolen bases last week than the Cardinals with eight. Three of those eight came in one game against the White Sox. Not coincidentally, that was their only game of the last seven where Iván Herrera started at catcher.

Herrera has been a revelation at the plate this season with a .320 batting average and .925 OPS through 42 games surrounding a trip to the injured list. At the same time, 15 bases have been stolen against him in just 13 starts behind the plate. He also hasn’t caught a single runner.

He’s hit so well and defended so poorly that he’d basically become the Cardinals’ every day designated hitter. That is, until a hamstring strain put him on the IL again just a few days ago.

Since he’s gone out, Nolan Gorman has started most games at DH and finally shown genuine signs of life. If Gorman is still hitting when Herrera returns in a few weeks, they’ll likely play him at catcher more often. That will open the door for tons of stolen bases against this team.

Otherwise, the Braves allowed the second most stolen bases of the week with six. That’s surprising, since they’ve saved their season by throttling the formerly first place Mets in five straight games.

Still, they’ve been susceptible in the run game all season and that’s mostly a symptom of Drake Baldwin’s breakout. He’s forced his way into a 50/50 timeshare with the incumbent Sean Murphy because he’s hit too well to come out of the lineup.

At the same time, he’s been poor behind the plate. Five of the six stolen bases the Braves allowed last week came with Baldwin catching. And, Murphy caught the only would-be base stealer.

Spencer Strider has also become a great pitcher to stream stolen bases against.

Three of those six steals came with him on the mound and the 13.9 feet he’s allowing on secondary leads is one of highest for any starting pitcher in the league. On one of those steals he gave up, Juan Soto simply took a running start to second while Strider was still in the stretch.

Keep an eye on Herrera’s return to the Cardinals plus Strider’s starts, especially when Baldwin is catching, to grab some easy stolen bases.

Chandler Simpson Back for Good?

Our long national nightmare is over. Chandler Simpson has been recalled back from Triple-A by the Rays.

His demotion a few weeks ago sent the fantasy baseball world into a frenzy after he swiped 19 bags in 35 games. At the same time, he struggled both at the plate and in the field, so it made sense for the Rays to give him a spell in the minors.

Now, he’s back. Kameron Misner was sent down in the corresponding move which seems to open a starting spot for Simpson.

Misner had been playing center field for the Rays most days and Simpson started there on Tuesday in his return. So, it looks like that could be his spot if he can handle it.

Jake Mangum is a capable center fielder as well, but has been playing left more often while stolen base king José Caballero mixes in at right against left-handed pitchers when Jose Lowe is on the bench and shortstop, where he splits time with Taylor Walls.

As usual, the Rays are certain to move most of these players around to fit their chess pieces together in the best way possible. Simpson looks to have a starting job at the moment, just don’t be surprised if he loses it should he struggle again.

Especially with both Richie Palacios and Ha-Seong Kim out on rehab assignments.

It's Wednesday, June 25 and the Cubs (46-33) are in St. Louis to take on the Cardinals (44-36). Matthew Boyd is slated to take the mound for Chicago against Erick Fedde for St. Louis.

With an 8-7 win yesterday, the Cardinals have won the first two games of the series. Masyn Winn had a big game for the Cardinals. He was one of three Cardinals to homer in last night's game.

Let's dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

Follow Rotoworld Player News for the latest fantasy and betting player news and analysis all season long.

Game details & how to watch Cubs at Cardinals

• Date: Wednesday, June 25, 2025
• Time: 7:45PM EST
• Site: Busch Stadium
• City: St. Louis, MO
• Network/Streaming: FanDuel Sports Network Midwest, Marquee Sports Network

Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.

Odds for the Cubs at the Cardinals

The latest odds as of Wednesday:

• Moneyline: Cubs (-130), Cardinals (+109)
• Spread:  Cubs -1.5
• Total: 9.0 runs

Probable starting pitchers for Cubs at Cardinals

• Pitching matchup for June 25, 2025: Matthew Boyd vs. Erick Fedde
  
  • Cubs: Matthew Boyd, (6-3, 2.84 ERA)
    Last outing (Seattle Mariners, 6/20): 5.0 Innings Pitched, 2 Earned Runs Allowed, 2 Hits Allowed, 2 Walks, and 6 Strikeouts
  • Cardinals: Erick Fedde, (3-6, 3.54 ERA)
    Last outing (Chicago White Sox, 6/19): 5.0 Innings Pitched, 1 Earned Runs Allowed, 6 Hits Allowed, 2 Walks, and 4 Strikeouts

Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries, and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions, and news type!

Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Cubs at Cardinals

• The Cardinals have won 4 of their last 5 games at home, while the Cubs have lost on 3 straight road trips
• Each of the Cubs' last 5 games at the Cardinals have gone over the Total
• The Cubs have failed to cover the Run Line in 10 of their last 12 games

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline, and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

Expert picks & predictions for tonight’s game between the Cubs and the Cardinals

Rotoworld Best Bet

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread, and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information, and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Wednesday's game between the Cubs and the Cardinals:

• Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
• Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the St. Louis Cardinals at +1.5.
• Total: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Game Total of 9.0.

Want even more MLB best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert MLB Predictions page from NBC

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

• Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
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• Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)