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Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Mets and Mariners play a three-game series in Seattle starting on Monday at 9:40 p.m. on SNY.

5 things to watch

The reverse engineered rotation

The first two games of this series will feature Sean Manaea and Jonah Tong, but it's possible neither of them starts.

Manaea, who is basically replacing David Peterson in the rotation, will enter after opener Austin Warren on Monday.

On Tuesday, Tong will be on the mound in a bulk role, but it hasn't yet been revealed whether he'll start or enter after an opener -- Tong has been utilized after an opener in his first two big league appearances this season, tossing 6.2 scoreless innings. 

What the Mets are doing might be viewed as relatively unorthodox by some, but it is becoming a more prevalent strategy throughout the game.

It's also a different (and better) strategy than the one the Mets used at times last season, when they often had straight bullpen games where they didn't use a traditional starting pitcher to eat innings.

Juan Soto is still scorching hot

Soto had a monster weekend as the Mets swept a three-game series from the Marlins, with four hits (including a grand slam), two walks, and five RBI.

In 65 plate appearances over 15 games since May 14, Soto is hitting .382/.469/.873 (1.341 OPS) with nine homers and 18 RBI.

For the season, he is slashing .305/.397/.597 (.994 OPS) with 13 homers. Even after missing roughly three weeks due to a calf injury, Soto is on pace to finish the year with 36 home runs, which would be the third-highest total of his career.

Among players who have played 42 games or more this season, Soto's .994 OPS is tops in the National League and third-best in baseball, behind only Ben Rice of the Yankees (1.056) and Yordan Alvarez (1.050) of the Astros.

Is Marcus Semien turning a corner?

Ahead of the series against Miami, Semien had notched just three hits in his prior 28 at-bats dating back to May 20. 

In 221 plate appearances over 56 games to that point, Semien was slashing .213/.264/.307 (.571 OPS, 64 OPS+).

The struggles were deep enough to wonder whether the Mets could shift Semien to a bench role once Francisco Lindor returns from the IL, with Bo Bichette shiftingback to third base and Brett Baty taking over for Semien at second base.

Semien rose to the occasion against the Marlins, though, reaching base seven times in 12 plate appearances (five hits, two walks) while raising his OPS for the year to .615.

The Mariners are flying high

After falling to 23-27 on May 19, the M's have gone 8-2 over their last 10 games, including winning their last six in a row with three-game sweeps over the Athletics and Diamondbacks.

The surge has been enough to catapult Seattle into first place in the mediocre AL West -- the 31-29 Mariners are the only team at .500 or better in the division. 

Julio Rodriguez has been hot amid Seattle's hot streak, with homers in three of his last four games.

J.P. Crawford, who is on a seven-game hitting streak, has also picked things up. 

One player the Mets won't see against Seattle is 2025 AL MVP runner-up Cal Raleigh, who is on the IL with an oblique injury. Raleigh was struggling badly before his injury, hitting a paltry .161/.243/.317 with seven homers in 41 games.

Hancock, Gilbert, and Kirby

The Mariners' calling card remains their elite starting pitching.

Seattle has given up just 225 runs this season, which is second-best in the AL and sixth-best in MLB.

A lot of that has to do with Emerson Hancock, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby -- the trio of starters who will toe the rubber against the Mets this week.

Hancock has been especially impressive this season, allowing two runs or fewer in eight of his 11 starts.

Predictions

Who will the MVP of the series be?

Juan Soto

Soto is as locked in as he's ever been as a Met.

Which Mets pitcher will have the best start?

Freddy Peralta

The Mets need more from Peralta, who couldn't make it through five innings this past Friday against the Marlins.

Which Mariners player will be a thorn in the Mets' side?

Randy Arozarena

Arozarena is having a strong season, with an .825 OPS through 60 games.

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Three hard-hitting sluggers headline our MLB player props home run analysis for tonight's quiet nine-game slate. I'll include James Wood, Mike Trout, and Jordan Walker.

Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, June 1. 

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Mike Trout	+310
James Wood	+286
Jordan Walker	+378
💲Today's HR parlay	+7944

Home run pick: Mike Trout (+310)

Mike Trout continues to produce elite power metrics, carrying a 48.6% hard-hit rate and a 21% barrel rate that ranks in the 98th percentile. He'll face Kyle Freeland on Monday, and the Rockies left-hander owned a 9.41 xERA in May while allowing opponents to post a 44.6% hard-hit rate.

The matchup is favorable for Trout, who has consistently punished southpaws this season with a .231 ISO and 144 wRC+. He also owns a 62.9% fly-ball rate against left-handed pitching, while more than 60% of the contact against Freeland has been in the air.

Freeland's recent form only adds to the appeal, as he's surrendered five home runs across his last two starts.

I'd play this pick up to +250.

• Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Angels.TV, Rockies.TV

Home run pick: James Wood (+285)

James Wood will be licking his chops tonight as the Washington Nationals star faces Miami Marlins right-hander Sandy Alcantara. The veteran has allowed 53.9% of his contact through the air and posted a poor 4.97 FIP in May.

Opponents are also making plenty of loud contact against Alcantara, producing a 40.4% hard-hit rate this past month, while he's allowing 1.61 HR/9 over his last five starts.

This bodes well for Wood. He's in the 100th percentile in xSLG, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate. The left-handed slugger owns a 23.5% HR/FB rate and a .225 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Alcantara's recent form only strengthens the case. He's surrendered five home runs across his last two appearances, while Wood has gone deep three times over the last seven days.

I'd confidently play this pick up to +250.

• Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marlins.TV, Nationals.TV

Home run pick: Jordan Walker (+378)

Jordan Walker is having a breakout campaign with 15 home runs, and he comes up against Jacob deGrom tonight. While the veteran's 3.77 ERA is respectable, the underlying numbers are more concerning.

He's allowing a 46.2% hard-hit rate this season, and that number jumped to 51.2% in May, when he also posted a 5.62 FIP. Walker owns a 21.2% HR/FB rate against right-handed pitching this season and has produced a 57.9% hard-hit rate over the last week. 

Eleven of his 15 home runs have also come against righties, while deGrom has been tagged for seven long balls across his previous three starts.

I'd play this pick up to +350.

• Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Rangers Sports Network, Cardinals.TV

Today’s HR parlay

Mike Trout	Bet Now +7944
James Wood
Jordan Walker

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

As we go through some of these statistical series it becomes important to occasionally go back and explain the whys and what fors for these numbers. Simply put, the more numbers we can use to demonstrate the difference between players the better. Essentially, we are looking the mathematics of situational baseball. The good news is that the Astros are playing good enough baseball where it matters again. The bad news is they have dug themselves another hole where they cannot afford missteps.

Friday night was a misstep of epic proportions. For some it was even a fireable offense. In the 8th inning, Joe Espada subbed Brice Matthews in for Taylor Trammel ostensibly to get better defense in left field. Bryan Abreu immediately gives up the tying run and we are left needing that at bat later in the game. So, Matthews had to hit with the bases loaded and one out. Given his speed, a strikeout was the only real negative probability. Since he strikes out 32 percent of the time, he obviously struck out. That single decision was baseball malpractice.

Baseball is a game of probabilities. Every pitch and every situation sees the odds of success and failure change in the blink of an eye. A 1-0 count shifts to a 1-1 count. However, if ABS can shift that to a 2-0 count then the odds clearly change. Coaches and players must make split second decisions based on these odds. Even when the odds are in your favor you will often fail. Even if failure is predicted you sometimes succeed through happy happenstance.

A manager’s job is to put his team in a position where the odds of success are as high as possible. As much as we might love a manager like “Major League’s” Lou Brown, I would just as soon not have my manager rolling out phrases like, “I gotta hunch he’s due.” Coaches, gamblers, and even players don’t succeed without a healthy understanding of situations and what the highest percentage play is.

That brings us to bases per out. Obviously, this is just yet another number, but I believe it to be a pretty accurate one and descriptive one. No number explains everything. Nothing is ever that easy. However, it can explain a lot on both the pitching and hitting side of things. It is calculated by taking total bases, walks, stolen bases, and hit by pitches and divide it by the total number of outs. The league average is .663 and as we have seen in the outfield, very few Astros have met the average. Again, we will list the players from most outs to least outs.

Let’s put these numbers in perspective. Yordan Alvarez might very well lead the league in BPO. His BPO is well over 1.000. There is a pretty significant drop off from there. You can clearly see there are only three really above average hitters on this team according to BPO. Taylor Trammel counts as one for the moment, but he is likely to see a regression really soon. The resurgence of Jeremy Pena has helped considerably over the last week, but this is still a pretty shallow lineup.

Mind you, Paredes is not far below average and one mini hot streak gets him above average. He has an OPS+ of 99 so he looks more or less average. Altuve obviously got off to the hot start, but faded in early May. Does he recalibrate himself and get back to what he was doing in the first couple of weeks of the season when he does come back? Anything is possible.

What this effectively means is that the Astros have several players that are interchangeable in terms of overall production. Shewmake and Allen are similar offensively if not in style, but results that matter. Mathews can also play on the infield and he is similar to them in results. These numbers are not predictive in nature, but they do help explain why managers sometimes make the decisions that they do. Unfortunately, it also highlights when they make the wrong ones.

When Altuve comes back, the decision of who to start will be simple. It is the decision of who to keep and who to drop that will become harder. As important as fielding is, this team does not have enough good bats to squander a spot to a fielding only player. However, looking at Matthews, Allen, and Shewmake right now is like looking at a group of siblings. They are not identical triplets. Each of them reach their BPO a little differently, but the results are all fairly similar.

So, it comes down to a decision. Do you want upside? Clearly, Matthews has more of that. Do you want positional flexibiity? Shewmake and Allen can play every infield position well. Matthews can play second well in addition to the outfield. He struggled in limited time at third and has not played short in the big leagues. Mathews also has options left and that is a pretty big deal. He has the look of a guy that needs everyday reps. Like Zach Cole before him, he just simply does not make enough contact yet to stick. Will he someday? Baseball history is littered with guys that take awhile to figure it out.

The simple fact is that the Astros have played well enough (and other teams in the AL West have sputtered) to where their games in June matter. Development can and should happen, but it cannot happen at the big league level under those circumstances. Joe Espada and Dana Brown have to maximize every single ounce of good baseball they can out of this 40 man roster. They will need to pick their bench and bullpen carefully. One or two missteps will cause losses like Friday night. Those are the kinds of losses this team can ill afford right now.

If the Orioles do end up fully turning this season around, this past home stand will have been where it started. Ten days ago, this club was spiraling, losers of five out of six and cratering to the bottom of the AL East. Now, after some home cooking and a series of exciting wins, the O’s feel like they are truly back in the mix.

Prior to this 10-game home stretch, the Orioles were 21-29, in fifth place in the division, 13 games out of first place and 3.5 games back of the final wild card spot. After going 7-3, which included a series win over the Tigers, a sweep of the Rays, and a four-game split with the Blue Jays, they are now 28-32. That brought them up to fourth in the East, within 10 games of first in the division, and just one game out of the final wild card spot.

Clearly, there’s work to be done, but the success of the home stand is unambiguous. The Orioles finally put together a stretch of games that made them look like the competitive team they were always supposed to be. Dreams of a playoff run are back on.

Offensive outburst

Over these 10 games, the Orioles scored 60 runs and hit 14 home runs. Contributions came from up and down the order, the previous black holes at second and third base seem to have disappeared, and one Oriole in particular has reasserted his everyday place in the lineup.

Nine different Orioles had a wRC+ of 105 or better. That is the sort of well-rounded offense Mike Elias had in mind when he built the roster. And that includes Pete Alonso (119 wRC+), Gunnar Henderson (111), and Adley Rutschman (105) being good not great. It was the rest of the team that really drove the run scoring.

Coby Mayo, despite dealing with an injury, had an impressive showing across five appearances. He slashed .333/.412/.600 with a home run. Could he be turning the corner? The Orioles really need him to take third base as his own.

Jackson Holliday’s return to the lineup has added a crucial dimension to the offense. He hit .276/.371/.483 with two home runs, and a 14.3% walk rate. While Jeremiah Jackson did a great job early in the season, his struggles have been evident for a while now. Holliday brings a much better approach to the plate.

But the MVP of the entire home stand is, without a doubt, Colton Cowser. The outfielder hit .375/.444/.792 with three home runs, eight runs scored, and nine RBI. He cut is strikeout rate in half, just 18.5% in this stretch, while still walking at a solid 11.1% rate. Cowser also came up clutch several times, including a pair of walk-off home runs. The Orioles don’t even need him to be that good at the plate. They just need him to be competent. He was certainly that these last few days.

Rotation rounding into form?

Expectations for the Orioles starting staff were not as high as they were for the lineup. The group simply needed to be serviceable with occasional pops of brilliance. Until recently, the underlying numbers for the starters were better than the actual outcomes. In these 10 games, their fortunes turned around a bit.

The Orioles 2.38 starter ERA since May 22 is the fifth-best in baseball. Their 4.27 xERA is 17th, their 4.21 FIP is 19th, and their 4.48 xFIP ranks 23rd. So were they actually good, or did they just get some good luck? The answer varies by the individual.

Shane Baz had a brilliant seven-inning outing, and both Brandon Young and Kyle Bradish have found some consistency recently that feels impossible to ignore. Chris Bassitt, on the other hand, allowed just one run in six innings despite barely missing any bats. Trey Gibson navigated a boatload of walks to give up just one run in 5.2 frames. Those two seem to be on the luckier side of things.

Trevor Rogers exists somewhere in between. Neither of his two starts on the home stand were “good,” and the Orioles lost both games. But they also felt like progress from where he has been. If he had been pulled after six innings in the game against the Blue Jays then maybe we would feel even better about this team, the pitching staff, and this stretch of 10 games.

Bullpen roles becoming clear

The relief corps had an opposite experience to their mates in the rotation. Some of their underlying stats from the home stand were actually better (3.16 FIP) than their top-line numbers (4.10 ERA). But overall outcomes in a bullpen feel less important than how some of the most important individuals are doing. In that regard, it was promising.

Rico Garcia went another 4.2 innings without allowing an earned run, though his strikeout (5.79 K/9) and walk (3.86 BB/9) numbers are not where you want them. Even still, it’s more brilliance from one of the team’s best surprises.

Andrew Kittredge seems to have found his footing after struggling after his IL stint. He didn’t allow a run in three appearances, which included coming into a bases loaded jam with no outs against the Rays. He struck out the three batters he was responsible for.

It was not a good week-and-a-half for Yennier Cano. He is the one that created the aforementioned bases loaded mess for Kittredge, and he exited with what seemed to be a hamstring injury. The good news is that he’s fine! No IL stint. and his underlying metrics are much better than the 16.20 ERA across 1.2 innings would suggest.

On top of that, Ryan Helsley is on the way back. He threw a 15-20-pitch bullpen on May 30, will do more bullpen work this week, and then is expected to go out on a rehab assignment sometime after June 8. He’s a reliever, so shouldn’t need an overly long stint down in the minors before he is ready to help the rest of the group out.

The return of Helsley should make the entire unit deeper. He will likely return to the closer’s role, even though Garcia has filled in admirably there. More importantly, it pushes everyone else further up in the game. So if a starter can get through five or six innings with the game in reach, you feel confident that a combination of Garcia, Kittrege, Cano, and Helsely can lock things down from there. It’s a much better situation in the late innings than many expected coming into the season.

Keep it going

Hoping for the Orioles to continue winning seven out of every 10 games is a way to get yourself disappointed. But they do need to maintain some level of momentum, and this road trip could give a chance to do just that.

They start with three games in Boston, who are back at the bottom of the AL East following the O’s winning ways. The BoSox have been awful at home this year, owning a 9-19 record at Fenway Park. Similarly, the Orioles have been terrible on the road (9-17) this year. Something’s gotta give.

Then the O’s get to see the Blue Jays again. The defending American League champs have righted the ship after early-season wobbles. But they are no juggernaut. There’s no better way to get back into playoff position than to beat a team that currently holds one of the last wild card spots.

This past home stand was so huge for the Orioles and the fan base. If it had gone wrong, it would have felt like a final blow to this underperforming team. Instead, they were fantastic. We saw the potential. Let’s keep it going, folks!

Good morning.

Shawn McFarland writes about what we’ve learned about the Texas Rangers over the last week, a club that started a homestand by getting no-hit and ended it with a sweep.

Kennedi Landry writes about Jack Leiter following his Vandy bro Kumar Rocker for a stellar outing against Kansas City as the Rangers finished off a sweep of the Royals on Sunday.

McFarland writes that the Rangers secured the sweeping victory by scoring six runs with timely hits, getting good pitching from their starter, and playing sound defense.

Jeff Wilson writes about the Rangers bouncing back from a poor start to finish with a winning homestand by taking the win on Sunday.

The cavalry could soon arrive as McFarland notes that Corey Seager is expected to begin a rare rehab assignment with Wyatt Langford also nearing a return.

Landry writes that getting Seager back and healthy and hitting is the hope for Texas to heat up in June.

And, Evan Grant answers why it was Andrew McCutchen on the chopping block despite several other players also struggling.

Have a nice day!

Well, that’s another month in the books. It was a pretty good month; while the Braves didn’t play at a league-best rate (hi Brewers), they weren’t far behind, either.

If you had to pick one Brave as the standout, however defined, who would you pick? Some food for thought…

While Mike Yastrzemski didn’t have the most bombastic batting line, he did far and away lead the team in WPA. His resurgence was perhaps also emblematic of the season the Braves are having as a whole: next man up production-wise, with different heroes stepping up to delivery victory after victory. It’s not that his context-neutral performance was anything to sneeze at, either, with a 170 wRC+ and 0.7 fWAR in just 66 PAs. But, in perhaps a fitting fashion for this season and not any other Braves season, he did it while massively outhitting his inputs: a .418 wOBA on a .338 xwOBA for the month.

Robert Suarez was almost entirely money, with a 6/1 shutdown/meltdown ratio in 12 appearances. Dylan Lee had a similar ratio and actually a much better pitching line (Suarez’ 17/85/94 is actually kinda meh; Lee was a hilariously dominant 34/42/54), but Suarez did stuff like have four consecutive outings (and five of six) with 0.10 WPA or more and only entered in low leverage three times for the month.

Meanwhile, Chris Sale was Chris Sale, with the most fWAR on the team for May (1.3). He made five starts, and though the Braves somehow lost two of them, he was dominant in every single one. Seriously, among his five starts, his worst ERA- was 88, his worst FIP- was 84, and his worst xFIP- was 70.

Though they weren’t around for the whole month, no one would blame you for going with Ronald Acuña Jr. or Drake Baldwin, either. Both had 0.9 fWAR. Acuña had a 192 wRC+ with a .451 wOBA and .462 xwOBA, because that’s what heroes do. Baldwin, well… .441 wOBA, .469 xwOBA, 185 wRC+. These guys were monsters. Get well soon, Drake Baldwin.

I think I’ve covered the likely picks here, but who ya got?

There isn’t a lot to go into this question. The National League just witnessed two of the best months from a starting pitcher in a long time.

These are two types of domination. For Sanchez, he literally did the exact job a pitcher is supposed to do: prevent the other team from scoring. No one scored on him in the month of May. For Misiorowski, he only allowed a single run, but struck out twelve more hitters than Sanchez did. They were both beyond excellent and entered a different stratosphere of pitcher while doing so.

So, which is the pitcher of the month? A minor award when thinking in terms of Cy Young stuff, but it is still something that any pitcher would be happy to claim.

The Cubs looked really good Saturday. Great pitching from Ben Brown, a huge day from Pete Crow-Armstrong, good relief, great defense…

As good as they looked Saturday, that’s how bad the team looked Sunday in a dispiriting 5-1 loss to the Cardinals.

You knew it probably wasn’t going to be the Cubs’ night after they got the first two hitters in the game on base and didn’t score. Nico Hoerner and Pete Crow-Armstrong singled to begin the night’s action and then… Alex Bregman struck out, Seiya Suzuki popped up and Ian Happ struck out. If you’re keeping track that’s already 0-for-3 with RISP. (0-for-8 with RISP for the entire game, not that such things are anything new for this team.)

Then Jordan Wicks had a second start just like his first, getting hit hard in the first inning. He allowed hits to the first three Cardinals and by the time the inning was over, two runs had scored. So, improvement? Just two runs given up in the first instead of five, as he did in Pittsburgh?

Yes, I’m being sarcastic. Everyone could have gone home after that inning because the Cubs offense was largely absent. They had only five more hits the rest of the way, just two for extra bases — a double by Michael Conforto in the seventh, by which time the game was basically over, and a solo homer by Alex Bregman in the fifth.

By the time Bregman left the yard, the Cubs were already down 5-0. Three of the runs were off Wicks, who completed just two innings plus one batter’s worth of the third, a leadoff single by JJ Westerholt, who eventually scored. Three runs off Wicks in two innings and his ERA went DOWN, from 16.62 to 15.63. Yikes. I feel badly for Wicks, who does have talent, but who doesn’t seem to know how to harness it at the MLB level. It seems likely that at least one more start in that rotation slot replacing Edward Cabrera will be needed, and my recommendation (not that the team listens to me) would be for Javier Assad to be recalled to make that start and Wicks be sent back to Triple-A Iowa.

Two more runs scored in the Cardinals third off Ethan Roberts, who had a rare bad outing. At 5-0 the game appeared out of reach, but Bregman did put them on the board with this home run [VIDEO].

It was Bregman’s first home run since May 12, a span of 82 plate appearances. All five of Bregman’s home runs so far this year have come with no one on base. That’s not a criticism, it’s just a coincidence. Did you know that Bregman is on a 10-game hitting streak? True story. He’s batting .304/.373/.413 (14-for-46) during the streak with two doubles, a home run and six runs scored. So that’s… pretty good, I guess. Hopefully he can build on it.

After Roberts left the game, Trent Thornton, Phil Maton and Ryan Rolison combined to throw five one-hit innings, though they also issued four walks. Maton actually retired all three hitters he faced — baby steps, maybe. Maton’s only strikeout came after this ABS challenge [VIDEO].

Honestly, that’s about all I’ve got from this one. With Cabrera and Matthew Boyd (who had a good rehab outing Sunday) on the shelf and Jameson Taillon and Shōta Imanaga giving up home runs every time you look up, Cubs starting pitching is in tatters, and it’s shown in the results over the last week. The Cubs went 3-4 on the road trip, which wouldn’t have been terrible if they hadn’t lost eight straight games right before it.

Here are Craig Counsell’s postgame comments [VIDEO].

It was fun to hear Anthony Rizzo as a field reporter for a Cubs game, and Jim Deshaies and Jason Benetti had an easy rapport. NBC’s Sunday Night Baseball production is, in my view, vastly superior to ESPN’s. NBC focuses much more on the action on the field, and that’s the game I want to watch.

Silly fun fact about this game:

After an excellent 17-9 April, the Cubs went 13-16 in May. Let’s hope that’s the worst month of 2026. They trail the Brewers by five games in the NL Central and dropped into a third-place tie with the Pirates after Sunday’s loss. With 102 games remaining, that is certainly not an insurmountable lead. Perhaps coming back to Wrigley Field and a turn of the calendar page will get the Cubs back on a winning track.

The Cubs are off Monday, an off day they surely need after 10 straight games during which they went 3-7. They’ll open a three-game series against the Athletics at Wrigley Field Tuesday evening. Jameson Taillon will start for the Cubs and Gage Jump will go for the A’s. Game time Tuesday is 7:05 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network.