From the moment Nico Harrison was fired, rumors have run rampant that the Dallas Mavericks should and would pivot to trade Anthony Davis and start building around Cooper Flagg. Count me among the many who have said that’s the direction the Mavericks should head.
While that makes for fun speculation — and many around the league think it is a little more likely than not — a whole long line of dominoes needs to fall before we can seriously discuss a Davis trade.
Reportedly, there is some trade interest in Davis — the Knicks, Warriors, Bulls and Kings have come up as potential destinations — but actually constructing a trade that works for everyone is incredibly difficult. And we have to get to the point where teams would make an offer first.
Davis needs to get healthy
Davis has missed the last 10 games with a calf strain and, in a precautionary measure, will be out at least another week before he returns to the court, something coach Jason Kidd confirmed (the extended time off reportedly was pushed for by Dallas' owner Patrick Dumont, and director of health and performance Johann Bilsborough).
Before any talk of a Davis trade can get serious, he has to get back on the court and prove he is healthy and still able to play at a near All-Star level — and do so for an extended period of time, league sources told NBC Sports. This reporting echoes what NBA insider Marc Stein wrote on Substack, that league sources told him Davis must "demonstrate sustained productivity through December and January" to generate the level of trade demand that Dallas will want.
Another under-discussed aspect of this is the Dallas front office situation. Michael Finley and Matt Riccardi are serving as interim co-general managers while the search for a full-time person to take over that role is underway. Would Dallas let those interim GMs trade Davis and set the future direction of the franchise?
Whether it's the rumored interested party, Dennis Lindsey (the former Jazz GM), or anyone else who eventually takes over in Dallas, they will want control over this process. The new GM will want a say as to who and what they would accept in a Davis trade. Also, the Mavericks rightfully can say they want to see what this team looks like with a healthy Davis alongside Kyrie Irving (also out injured) and next to Cooper Flagg. That may not be the move many of us would make, but it's on the table.
If Davis proves he's healthy, and if Dallas is ready to make a move, there will be some interest. However, there is another big challenge.
Davis’ salary, extension
Anthony Davis is in the first year of a three-year, $175 million contract extension and is making $54.1 million this season. He is guaranteed $58.5 million next season, then has a $62.8 million player option for the 2027-28 season. He is extension-eligible this summer and would likely decline the player option for a couple more guaranteed years and more total money. Think two years, $130+ million, with a deal that would then stretch to the summer of 2029.
That's a lot to take on for any team, and any team that trades for him has to be going all-in and banking on a healthy Davis to be a key part of their championship window. There is a small market of those teams.
One other challenge in constructing an in-season Davis trade: Dallas is right up against the second apron and will look to shed salary in any trade (it might even try to drop as much as $16 million to get below the luxury tax line). This is why constructing a trade to teams also constrained by the tax aprons — the Knicks, the Warriors — is next to impossible. Even if those teams want to do it.
What teams would have an interest in Davis? Let's break down the teams mentioned most often.
Chicago Bulls
John Wall popularized the idea that Davis wants to go home to his native Chicago. That sounds good on paper, Davis would be an upgrade at the center position for the Bulls defensively, but there are three main issues.
1) Arturas Karnisovas almost never makes in-season trades. Why would the Bulls GM break that pattern this season? While the East is more wide open than in years, how far is a Josh Giddey and Anthony Davis core really going to go? The second round? Are the Bulls willing to give up young players and picks for that ceiling?
2) What direction are the Bulls going? We've been asking that for years as the team seemed to tread water, but with Chicago moving on from DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine, this feels like they were finally pivoting to their youth. Davis is 32, has a long history of nagging injuries, and is going to expect a contract extension after this season. That's not youth; getting Davis is a win-now move.
3) The Bulls need more rim protection, and a healthy Davis provides that, except that coach Billy Donovan would need to convince AD to spend most of his minutes at the five. Davis, famously, prefers to play the four most of the game and not deal with the physical wear-and-tear of being an NBA center defending on the block.
There are three-team trade constructions that work (adding the Nets because they have cap space), with the Bulls sending out the expiring contract of Nikola Vucevic, as well as young point guard Coby White and another player (Kevin Huerter or Isaac Okoro?). Plus, Chicago would need to throw some picks into the deal (the Bulls have those). From the outside, it doesn't make a ton of sense for the Bulls to trade away parts of the future for a win-now move, but if Karnisovas felt his seat was getting warm, might he make a big move?
Golden State Warriors
Golden State fits the "would spend money on an older player to try and win now" mold better than any team in the NBA. They want to try to win one more with Stephen Curry. Golden State also needs help along the front line. On paper there is a logic to this…
Until you actually try to construct a trade. Both the Mavericks and Warriors are hard-capped at the second apron and less than $2 million below that line, so any trade has to be even financially.
Jimmy Butler for Davis straight up works financially (they make the same amount), but that trade doesn't improve either team in the ways they want.
Golden State could construct a three-team trade for Davis (with Brooklyn) that sends Draymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga, and another player, such as Buddy Hield, out, plus picks. While a healthy Davis is a better player than Green in a vacuum, they have to give up two key role players and picks to make it happen. Is Davis that much better than Green? Plus, Curry and Green have chemistry that's hard to replicate. It's just incredibly difficult to find a deal that works financially, and even harder to find one that makes any sense.
New York Knicks
This is not happening.
On paper, a Karl-Anthony Towns for Davis swap works (they make the same salary), and AD is a better defender, but the Knicks get older, and KAT is a better fit in Mike Brown's offense. Do the Knicks want to blow up an Eastern Conference Finals team on the bet that Anthony Davis will be healthy and playing his best ball in the postseason? For the Mavericks, the Knicks don't have quality picks to throw in, so now they are just pairing Towns and Flagg, which brings in more shooting, but how much better do they really get?. Long term, they would need to flip Towns in another trade.
Other trade constructions — either an expansion of the KAT/Davis trade, or one based around OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges —exist, but they all run into the same issues. The Knicks are better off going with the guys they have.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota has been to the Western Conference Finals each of the past two seasons, but early on in this season, it looks more like a team taking half a step back, not one forward. Yet.
The trade would have to be Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley based, and as Zach Lowe noted on his podcast, the Mavericks would likely ask for Rob Dillingham to be thrown in (betting on his development). Davis and Julius Randle become the front line, which should open up more driving space for Anthony Edwards. It's a win-now move for Minnesota if they feel they need to make a change near the deadline.
Dallas would get Dillingham and try to flip Gobert over the summer (Dereck Lively II is their center of the future — and present — when healthy). Is that enough? It may depend on how highly they rate Dillingham.
Los Angles Clippers
The Clippers are the oldest team in the league, they are struggling to open the season, and there is a sense of desperation to try and win during the Kawhi Leonard era — could they make another push all in, trying to add Davis to James Harden, Ivica Zubac and (an eventually healthy) Leonard?
As Lowe noted on his podcast, a deal would have to be based around John Collins, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Brook Lopez (or Derrick Jones Jr.), plus the Clippers' 2031 first-round pick. As tempting as that 2031 pick may be, that's not an offer that will thrill Dallas (but it's also closer to the reality of what the Mavericks will get back in any AD trade). The vibe in Los Angeles is more that this franchise is ready to pivot and rebuild, not trade for another expensive short-term solution, but maybe things change.
Toronto Raptors
This is my favorite of the trade options. Toronto is 9-5 to start the season, sees a much more open East, has a new management team that wants to make its mark and might see a healthy Davis as the upgrade they need in the paint.
The most likely trade scenario sends RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl, Ja'Kobe Walter and two first-round picks to Dallas for Davis. For Toronto, it pairs AD with Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram, Immanuel Quickley, and Collin Murray-Boyles — that's an interesting group. For Dallas, it's two first-round picks and a couple of players who can be flipped in future trades. It might be as good a deal as they can get.
• Detroit gets mentioned a lot, in part because everyone expects them to make one more move to contend now (hello Lauri Markkanen). Here's the thing: Davis is not an upgrade (or, at least not enough of one) the way Jalen Duren is playing right now. Especially with Isaiah Stewart also in the front-court mix. If the Pistons are going to make a trade, it should be for wing shot creation and scoring. Davis just makes Detroit older without the other benefits they need. Detroit would have to give up Jaden Ivey and Tobias Harris to make this work. The trade might be great for Dallas, but why would the Pistons break this up to get older along the front line?
• Miami is required by law to be brought up in any conversation about a trade for a star… but this doesn't make much sense for them. Or Dallas. The trade would have to involve Terry Rozier — currently away from the team and under federal indictment for gambling violations, but they need his salary to make a trade work — Tyler Herro, and a couple of picks. While the Heat would love to get off Rozier's contract, how does Davis fit next to Bam Adebayo (they won gold together on Team USA)? And is Herro and picks enough for Dallas? The Mavericks could ask for Norman Powell instead of Herro, but Powell is older. This just seems DOA.
• Both the Kings and Suns come up as teams in some speculation, but those are teams that know they are not winning now and are trying to pivot and get younger. Neither is trading for Davis.
