ATLANTA, GA - MARCH 27: Drake Baldwin #30 of Atlanta Braves hits a home run during the third inning in the season opener against the Kansas City Royals at Truist Park on March 27, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Kevin D. Liles/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It’s been a crazy sophomore season for Drake Baldwin so far.
Up until he suffered an oblique injury in mid-May, he had a .401 wOBA (154 wRC+) and .418 xwOBA — pretty bonkers numbers. Like, we knew he was good from 2025, when he had a .350ish wOBA/xwOBA (125 wRC+), but to come out swinging well above that? I’m hard-pressed to describe it in any other way but “wow.”
The oblique injury kept him out for a month. He played in literally one rehab game before the Braves decided that their catching situation in his absence was so bad that there was no way he could be any worse while getting back up to speed. In a very immediate sense, they were proven right, as Baldwin homered on the fifth pitch of his post-activation PA. But, in anything but a very immediate sense, they were proven wrong-ish. In his first 12 games back, which included that leadoff homer, Baldwin put together a .105 wOBA and .178 xwOBA (-44 wRC+, and yes, that’s a negative). Nearly everything was out of whack: his walk rate was just two percent and his strikeout rate was 44 percent (compared to 11 percent and 20 percent, respectively, pre-injury); his exit velocity was down 10 mph and his hard-hit rate was about halved. His bat speed was more or less unchanged, though a bunch of other more granular swing metrics were off-kilter. Basically, it didn’t necessarily seem that he was having lingering physical issues, but he was clearly off in a way we hadn’t seen.
As the calendar flipped to July, though, things began to change again. On July 1, Baldwin had a hit and two walks. It was his first day with either a wOBA or xwOBA over .300 since his leadoff homer in his first game back. He had an o-fer a couple of days later, but up through the All-Star Break, he seemed very back: .410 xwOBA, a 13 percent walk rate, and a strikeout rate that had fallen all the way down to nine percent. The only thing not gelling was that he was massively underhitting his xwOBA (.340 wOBA), which will happen in a 12-game sample.
And then, we got the series against the Rangers. In Game One, he had three hits, including a homer, and also drew a walk. It was his third-highest xwOBA game of the season so far, and fifth-highest wOBA game. In Game Two, he had a couple of singles. And then came Game Three, the best full* game of his career so far: three singles, two homers, no outs at the plate. It was the second multi-homer game of his career. Oh, and he stole a base. His season line, which had dipped to a .345 wOBA (117 wRC+) and .372 xwOBA after his June struggles is now back to a .368 wOBA (132 wRC+) and .391 xwOBA.
* I say “full” because last year, he had a game where he didn’t play until the eighth, when he pinch-hit, drew a walk, and then hit a game-winning, two-out, two-run homer off Jose Alvarado the next inning. Technically, a walk and a homer is a better line on a rate basis than three singles and two homers.
So, how back is Drake Baldwin? Better than ever? All the way back? Wait-and-see? The scars of June are too deep to believe?
Jul 19, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Alan Rangel (57) with pitching coach Caleb Cotham (65) and catcher J.T. Realmuto (10) during the first inning against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images | Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
It’s the topic of the day around the Phillies universe, considering we know how well the plan currently has been going. Alan Rangel currently is the fifth starter for the Phillies and has not performed well. His having to have been in the rotation was a result of Andrew Painter struggling so much this season in the major leagues and now the team is in a bind.
Can they survive a summer playoff push with their current pitching plan in place for the fifth starter’s job?
It’s starting to look more and more like Aaron Nola can give them serviceable starts out of the four spot. He’s been pretty good his last three starts, albeit against some anemic offenses. Still, it’s better than what he has given them, which felt like an automatic loss each time he toed the rubber. Maybe the team feels they are fine with whatever Rangel can give them until Painter is (maybe?) able to fix himself in Lehigh Valley? Maybe they have a deal lined up to get another LAIM for the backend of the rotation.
We have now come back from the break. These last couple of labs have come from the luxury of the cruise ship, so the numbers are all pre-All Star break numbers. We have been looking at offense position by position to get a better feel of where the Astros could use some help. We are actually closer to the end than we are to the beginning. We only have the outfield left to go after today.
It’s at this time that it is time to take a step back. Why do we rely on numbers in the first place? Crime experts will tell us that eyewitness testimony is the least reliable testimony there is. Our emotions and personal psychology usually colors what we see or think we see. One of the more infuriating statements that is often said is that people know a Hall of Famer when they see one. We don’t always and we also think we know good and bad baseball based on what we see, but that is sometimes wrong too.
Stat geeks and analysts have been accused of not understanding the game because we rely on numbers. It would be like questioning scientists because they feel a need to conduct experiments and use the scientific method. Knowing something and proving something can be two entirely different things. We know Jeremy Pena is a good baseball player. How good is he? Well, we need numbers for that and there is no better number offensively than bases per out.
Bases per out is calculated by adding total bases, walks, stolen bases, and hit by pitches and dividing it by total outs. Baseball-reference.com keeps all of the components, but unfortunately it has to be kept by hand until a stat source chooses to feature it. The major league average for BPO is .676, but as we have seen, that number is not particularly relevant when we are looking at individual positions. First base and third base have come in above that while catcher and second have come in well below it. We are looking at regulars in the American League with at least 120 outs.
Outs
TB
BB
SB
HBP
BPO
Kevin McGonigle
250
147
59
11
3
.880
Bobby Witt
268
163
39
30
1
.869
Jeremy Pena
138
83
15
8
4
.797
Zach Neto
291
168
44
12
7
.794
Colson Montgomery
268
159
31
1
9
.746
Brayan Rocchio
243
125
27
15
7
.716
Ezequiel Duran
222
129
22
7
1
.716
Jose Caballero
222
107
16
22
5
.676
J.P. Crawford
229
97
44
1
5
.642
Gunnar Henderson
318
157
34
7
6
.642
Corey Seager
161
70
28
1
2
.627
Jacob Wilson
164
86
11
2
0
.604
Taylor Walls
187
63
31
13
2
.583
Brooks Lee
264
118
27
5
2
.576
Andres Gimenez
232
103
11
10
8
.569
Marcelo Mayer
168
64
16
3
3
.512
Zach McKinstry
185
64
25
1
0
.486
Mean
224.1
111.9
28.2
8.8
3.8
.682
Median
229
107
27
7
3
.642
When you do enough of these data sets you start to see patterns. One of those patterns is what I would label as the “law of success.” This one is simple and self-explanatory. Teams will tend to play players that are more successful. So, you notice that the majority of the players with the most outs also have done the most damage per out. Pena would be one of those guys too if it weren’t for his injuries this year. It makes perfect sense. If you fail repeatedly then you won’t play for very long.
This is why any talk of a player like say Derek Jeter being the worst fielder in the Hall of Fame is automatically hyperbolic. It can be a true statement, but by definition the Jose Offermans of the world don’t get employed for very long when they demonstrate repeated failure (as a fielder). It is relatively rare to see a team continually employ someone that is routinely failing and when we see it we stand up and take notice as we would with Gunnar Henderson.
Pena is decidedly above average by any measure. He is 17 percent better than the average starting American League shortstop and 24 percent better than the median starting shortstop in the American League. I’d say that is significantly above average. Obviously, we would have to look at the underlying numbers to see if that trend will continue, but this has been the Pena we have seen for the last year in a half.
So, on days when Pena is leading off, the Astros have four players in their lineup that significantly above the major league average in bases per out and two of them are significantly above their positional average. We haven’t profiled Yordan Alvarez yet, but he is likely to have the highest BPO in baseball. While Yainer Diaz and Jose Altuve were not good overall, they were the median at their positions. That of course leaves the outfield where we will be going next time.
This all brings us back to where we thought we were in the first place. The Astros need to find some outfield production and fast. Still, we will wait to see the numbers before declaring a four alarm emergency. So far, the Astros look like they have an above average offense. It will be interesting to see if that is where they end up in the end.
ATLANTA, GA - JULY 19: Starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi (17) of the Texas Rangers prepares to deliver a pitch during the Sunday afternoon MLB game between the Texas Rangers and the Atlanta Braves on July 19, 2026 at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Braves 8, Rangers 5
That didn’t go the way we were hoping.
Nathan Eovaldi was allowing homers and couldn’t go deep into the game, and the bullpen combined with some poor defensive decision making to allow a big inning late.
For all the angst about the offense, its the pitching that is particularly problematic right now.
Nathan Eovaldi gave up 10 home runs in 130 innings all of 2025. So far this season, in 115 innings, he’s allowed 22 home runs. If you want to know how he’s gone from a 1.73 ERA last year to a 4.21 ERA this year, well, that goes a long way.
Eovaldi’s career high in home runs allowed is 23, and hopefully he ends up breaking that mark, because otherwise it would mean he’s out for a lengthy period of time.
Evan Carter was lifted for a pinch hitter in the top of the sixth, rather earlier than would be ideal. That left Cam Cauley playing center field the rest of the way, and trying to make a play on the Matt Olson double that started things off in the seventh, the hit where all the trouble began.
I don’t know that Cauley should have made a play on that ball, or that Carter would have…but its one of those things where I’m wondering if Carter in the game means that’s an out rather than a double, and potentially all the rest of the nonsense from that inning doesn’t happen.
Wyatt Langford, at least, is continuing to rake, falling a triple shy of a cycle. The Rangers had 11 hits in the game, with ten of them coming from four players — Langford, Joc Pederson, Nicky Lopez and Jake Burger.
Going on the road and playing a good team, the expectation is that you’re going to lose two of three. The Rangers lost two of three. Expectations were met.
It doesn’t mean it isn’t disappointing, though.
Nathan Eovaldi’s fastball topped out at 95.1 mph, averaging 93.7 mph. Robby Ahlstrom reached 95.6 mph on his sinker. Cole Winn’s fastball touched 96.0 mph. Tyler Alexander hit 92.2 mph with his fastball. Peyton Gray maxed out at 94.0 mph with his fastball. Ben Peoples’ fastball topped out at 96.6 mph.
Jake Burger had a 107.8 mph single and a 101.7 mph single. Wyatt Langford had a 105.7 mph double, a 105.2 mph home run, and a 101.1 mph single. Nicky Lopez had a 101.6 mph single. Kyle Higashioka had a 100.6 mph single. Joc Pederson had a 100.2 mph double.
Back to Arlington, and hopefully, a productive homestand.
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Jul 19, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers catcher William Contreras (24) reacts after hitting game winning three run home run in the ninth inning against the Miami Marlins at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images | Benny Sieu-Imagn Images
Welcome to week 17 of our 2026 NL Central Power Rankings — let’s rank some teams!
1. Milwaukee Brewers (62-37); 3-0 this week; 99.2% chance to make postseason (FanGraphs)
The Brewers swept the Marlins coming out of the break, as they completed a trio of come-from-behind victories with a pair of walk-offs.
William Contreras had the biggest hit of the weekend, as he launched a three-run walk-off homer in Sunday’s series finale, sending Milwaukee home with a 3-1 victory. Garrett Mitchell also had a big weekend, leading the team with five hits and driving in the winning run in Friday night’s walk-off win. Joey Ortiz had the only other homer, while the team combined for nine steals in 10 attempts, including a pair from Christian Yelich, Ortiz, and Jackson Chourio.
Shane Drohan had the longest start at six innings, allowing three runs and striking out nine in a winning performance. Robert Gasser and Logan Henderson had nearly identical lines in their starts, as each went five innings with one run allowed on three hits and no walks. The only difference was that Henderson struck out four while Gasser struck out five. Craig Yoho was the only bullpen arm to allow a run (and even he picked up his first career win with a shutout 10th inning on Friday), as Grant Anderson, Aaron Ashby, Trevor Megill, Chad Patrick, and Abner Uribe combined for 10 shutout innings and 14 strikeouts.
Milwaukee stays home this week as they’ll host the Mets and Rockies through next weekend.
2. Chicago Cubs (56-43); 2-1 this week; 79.6% chance to make postseason
The Cubs dropped their series opener against the Twins on Friday but bounced back to win the series with a pair of wins on Saturday and Sunday.
Alex Bregman and Michael Busch both homered this weekend, while Nico Hoerner led the team with eight hits in just 13 at-bats, driving in five. Pedro Ramírez and Seiya Suzuki added four hits each, with both picking up a pair of doubles.
Matthew Boyd worked six strong innings with one run allowed and four strikeouts, while Shota Imanaga turned in the best performance of the series with seven shutout frames, striking out four. Tyler Ferguson, Gavin Hollowell, Ryan Rolison, Trent Thornton, and Jacob Webb combined for 4 2/3 scoreless innings with five strikeouts for the bullpen.
Chicago wraps up the homestand to begin the week with three games against the Tigers. After an off day on Thursday, they’ll visit the Pirates in Pittsburgh.
3. Pittsburgh Pirates (52-48); 2-1 this week; 47.7% chance to make postseason
The Pirates visited Cleveland this weekend, taking two of three as they split a doubleheader on Saturday (after Friday’s game was canceled due to air quality) and won 7-1 on Sunday.
Esmerlyn Valdez continues to swing the bat like Babe Ruth, as he picked up three hits this week, all of the extra-base variety with a pair of homers and a double, driving home five. Nick Gonzales and Jacob Gonzalez both homered as well, with four other players adding three hits apiece.
Jared Jones and Paul Skenes both made strong starts, with Jones going five innings with one run allowed and nine strikeouts and Skenes allowing one run over seven innings with eight strikeouts. Mason Montgomery also worked as an opener for Khristian Curtis, with Curtis going five scoreless innings with four strikeouts. Isaac Mattson, Carmen Mlodzinski, Montgomery, Gregory Soto, and Yohan Ramírez all had scoreless weekends for the bullpen.
The Pirates now head to New York to face the Yankees before they return home to host the Cubs over the weekend.
4. St. Louis Cardinals (51-47); 1-2 this week; 27.3% chance to make postseason
The Cardinals dropped two of three in Phoenix this weekend, winning Friday’s series opener against the D-backs but dropping both Saturday and Sunday’s games.
Jimmy Crooks and JJ Wetherholt both homered this week for the Cards, with Alec Burleson leading the team with six hits and scoring four runs. José Fermín added four hits, and Jordan Walker picked up three hits, including a double.
Michael McGreevy had the lone quality start of the weekend, going 6 1/3 innings with two runs allowed (one earned) and five strikeouts. Justin Bruihl, Riley O’Brien, and Matt Svanson had a scoreless inning each in relief.
St. Louis will stay out west with a visit to the Angels to begin the week. They’ll then return home to host the D-backs for a makeup game on Thursday before welcoming the Reds to town.
5. Cincinnati Reds (45-53); 2-1 this week; 1.2% chance to make postseason
The Reds visited Colorado this weekend, taking two of three against the Rockies.
It was a homer-heavy weekend in the high altitude of Denver, as the Reds had 10 homers as a team, including a pair from Spencer Steer, Tyler Stephenson and Jose Trevino. Elly De La Cruz added a homer and led the team with six hits, while Sal Stewart also homered and led the team with five RBIs.
Brady Singer and Hunter Greene both earned wins with quality starts, as Singer went seven innings with two runs allowed and six strikeouts, and Greene went six innings with three runs allowed and seven strikeouts. Tejay Antone, Brock Burke, Julian Garcia, and Pierce Johnson combined for 6 2/3 scoreless innings with five strikeouts for the bullpen.
Cincinnati will continue the road trip with visits to Seattle and St. Louis through the coming weekend.
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - JUNE 29: Braxton Ashcraft #35 of the Pittsburgh Pirates throws a pitch against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on June 29, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Pirates defeated the Phillies 11-7. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) | Getty Images
After an offseason in which the Pirates made a handful of moves to beef up a roster that went 71-91 in 2025, Pittsburgh saw an up-and-down first half. They now come to the Bronx for their only series of the season against the Yankees, looking to make up some ground in the tight NL Central race. Outside of the last-place Reds, every team in their division is above the .500 mark, including the Bucs, who are 52-48 and 10.5 games out of first but in possession of a Wild Card spot. They have the second-longest playoff drought in baseball, as they haven’t made it to October since getting blanked by the Cubs in the 2015 NL Wild Card Game.
While the Yankees split a doubleheader against the Los Angeles Dodgers to finish out their series, Pirates ace Paul Skenes posted a strong seven innings with eight strikeouts and only one earned run on seven hits in a 7-1 victory against Cleveland. And while Yankees fans won’t be able to see Skenes in person this season, they’ll still get plenty of exciting action against a Pirates team that’s looking to continue its fight toward the postseason.
So let’s take a look at what’s in store.
Monday – Ryan Weathers vs. Braxton Ashcraft (7:05 pm Eastern)
Following a relatively decent start to the season, it feels as if Ryan Weathers has fallen back down to Earth. He will take the mound in the opener of the three-game set against the Pirates, hoping to get back on track after seeing his team lose in three of his last games pitched. His last outing against the Nationals was a step in the right direction, as he pitched 5.1 innings and, despite allowing six hits, he only allowed one run. He also registered six strikeouts on 91 pitches.
Weathers sits with a 3-7 record and a 4.15 ERA, just slightly worse than the Yankees pitcher taking the mound the next night (which we’ll talk about in a moment), but against a Pirates team that has struggled against left-handed pitchers on the road, he may have the chance to get back to the level he wants to be at now that the second-half of the season is underway.
On the other side of the equation is Braxton Ashcraft, who made headlines around the Pirates and MLB for his first career All-Star appearance this year in Philadelphia for the NL. He replaced Skenes after the ace was voted to the team, but was unable to pitch following an outing against the Brewers the Sunday before the All-Star festivities. The 2018 second-round prep pick has earned recognition in his own right, though.
Playing in his first full MLB season, Ashcraft, 26, has started 19 games and has pitched 113.1 innings. Along with his 128 strikeouts, he has a 9-3 record entering his first start following his appearance in Philadelphia and a 3.49 ERA. And although his last start at Milwaukee ended in a no-decision, the four prior to that were all wins for the Bucs. Monday will be the first time Ashcraft will face the Yankees in his career, and it’s surely a relief to not have to face Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton in the process.
Tuesday — Will Warren vs. Bubba Chandler (7:05 pm Eastern)
Will Warren and Weathers have been somewhat indistinguishable at the back end of the rotation. However, both of them continue to be as important now as ever, with the Yankees waiting on the return of the two star left-handers, Max Fried and Carlos Rodón.
Like Weathers, the last five outings for Warren have been underwhelming. Three of them have been losses, and the other two were no-decisions. In fact, the last time Warren walked away from a game with a win to his name was all the way back on May 31st after six strong innings against the A’s (the same day as the 13-run inning). He went 4-1 in May, and that was his third win in a row, butit’s been downhill since June, with the Yankees going 3-4 in his last seven games.
Additionally, the last time Warren went six or more innings was that game against the A’s. The closest he got was in two straight starts — the first against Cincinnati and the second against the Red Sox — where he pitched 5.2 innings across 90 pitches each. But the start of the second half gives Warren a chance to begin somewhat anew and improve on his first-half numbers. However, he’ll have his work cut out for him on the other side of the equation.
The Pirates are going to throw out another one of their young guns who can throw absolute heat: Bubba Chandler. The 23-year-old right-hander averages 98.6 mph on his fastball, and he has another five pitches that he uses occasionally, but it’s more like a three-pitch mix than anything. The next-highest after his fastball, which sits at 47.9-percent usage, is his slider at 18.7 percent, and his changeup at just 16.9 percent. Chandler also has a sinker, a sweeper, and a curveball.
However, while he has the arsenal and the arm talent, Chandler’s first full MLB season hasn’t gone to plan. He has a 3-8 record, a 4.77 ERA, and 85 strikeouts over 94.1 innings pitched, good for a 92 ERA+. A huge problem for him has been walks, as he leads the entire league with 55 issued. So for the Yankees, if they want to help their starter out, discipline will be the key in the batter’s box.
Wednesday — Gerrit Cole vs. Mitch Keller (12:35 pm Eastern)
The final matchup between these two teams will be a Wednesday matinee with two of the team’s top-of-the-rotation starters taking the mound. For the Yankees, it’s Gerrit Cole, who, despite a great six-inning, eight-K performance against the Dodgers, had it overshadowed by a misplaced pitch to Max Muncy. In his last five starts, he has managed to pitch at least five innings, with his last two getting to six or over. However, four of his last five results and decisions have been losses.
After coming back from injury, Cole has had his ups and downs, as one would expect from an almost-36-year-old flamethrower. But despite a 3.93 ERA, the Yankees ace can certainly show his old form against his former club, and with the potential for a rubber match, there’s no better time. Interestingly, this will only be the third time in his career that Cole will face the team that drafted him with the first overall pick in 2011. He’s pitched 11 total innings and came out of those two games with a win and a 2.45 ERA. He’s tallied only seven strikeouts in those two appearances, but it’s been enough to get the job done.
As for the Pirates, it’s the right-hander Mitch Keller, who, after hearing plenty of trade rumors about him last season, has come out this season and outright struggled. In 19 games started, there hasn’t been much to write home about. A 6-7 record and a 5.14 ERA are the lowest on the team among qualified hurlers. His strikeout numbers have dropped to the second-lowest of his career, and it’s because his average fastball velocity has dropped to the lowest of his career as well.
Keller is looking for the second half of the season to start getting back on track; otherwise, things could look grim moving forward in the Steel City for the 30-year-old hurler. The 2023 All-Star is owed just over $38 million through the end of 2028.
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JULY 19: Members of the New York Mets celebrate after defeating the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on Sunday, July 19, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Phebe Grosser/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Meet the Mets
In the deciding game of a weekend series with Philadelphia, Nolan McLean struck out ten and brought his ERA that little bit closer to 3.00 as eight different Mets got hits. All of this to say, it was good.
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA - DECEMBER 30: Tommy Novak #18 of the Pittsburgh Penguins celebrates with Erik Karlsson #65 and Parker Wotherspoon #28 after scoring a goal in the second period during the game against the Carolina Hurricanes at PPG PAINTS Arena on December 30, 2025 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Penguins finished the 2024-25 season with just 80 points in the standings, good for only seventh place in their division and 13th in the Eastern Conference.
Fast forward a year, and Pittsburgh was up to 98 points, a second place finish in their division that ranked seventh in the conference. Where did that turnaround happen? Let’s check the team performance split by opponent over the two seasons.
The highlighted segment of division opponents tells the tale at large. The Pens were just 9-13-4 against Metropolitan Division opponents in 2024-25. That turned completely on its head this past season by the tune of a 13-4-9 record in 2025-26. That’s as many wins as total losses but avoiding regulation losses is the name of the game – getting to OT against these opponents serves to cheapen the impact of their win. Two of the regulation losses were to the Capitals at the tail end of the season after Pittsburgh had clinched a playoff berth and iced less-than-competitive lineups to make the record that much more impressive for the games that matters.
To go from a full-season point pace of just 69 in 2024-25 when playing teams in the division to turn it into a pace of 110 in 2025-26 really sums up the Pens’ turnaround from one year to the next. It’s really about all that needs to be said, dominate the division and you are likely headed to the playoffs. Play horribly and it’s the draft lottery.
Improvements weren’t limited to the division, Pittsburgh managed a 15-15-2 record against the Western Conference in 2024-25, that improved to a 15-9-8 record this past year. While they didn’t add to the win total, avoiding regulation losses was once again a key to results, the pace difference from year-to-year was 82 to 97, showing just how critical picking up the so-called ‘loser point’ can be. They add up in the standings column just the same.
One area where results were a little less favorable was against the Atlantic Division, where Pittsburgh put up a 12-11-1 record. Somehow, Toronto dummied the Pens all season long (shakes fist at William Nylander) despite the Maple Leafs having a rotten year otherwise. Coming into the season, a season-sweep of Florida would have sounded more impressive than it ended up being at the finish of the year, the Pens did it anyways (3-0-0). Pittsburgh also helped sink the Yzerplan by going 3-0-0 against Detroit. At the same time, the Pens took a step back against Montreal (1-2-0 record after sweeping the Habs in 2024-25) and – as usual for Pittsburgh – continued to have trouble winning games against Ottawa and Boston.
The Pens’ performance against the two Stanley Cup Final teams of Carolina and Vegas show how they are so close, yet so far away. Pittsburgh took a 2-2-2 record against the two, losing four of the six games. However, the wins (5-1 over the Hurricanes on December 30th, 5-0 over Vegas on March 1st) were two of their more impressive games of the season. The regulation losses (5-1 to Carolina and 6-2 to Vegas, both in March) were extremely humbling experiences. The two extra time losses (both to Carolina) were back-and-forth battles where Pittsburgh erased third period deficits to earn a point. In the end, they didn’t quite have enough.
For next season, the Penguins will have to be looking to accomplish the same results against the Metropolitan Division to have a strong season. The NHL is tacking on two more games, and both are against division opponents. That means that one-third of the 84 game schedule (28 games) will be against rivals. 2025-26 showed that performing well in those games will set a team up nicely to qualify for the postseason. It’s easier to read a map than actually tread it, but the message and results are clear for division performance making Pittsburgh one of the worst teams in the league in 2024-25 when they struggled in that area, compared to being one of the better teams in 2025-26 when they were able to excel against their most important foes.
Jul 19, 2026; Bronx, New York, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Shohei Ohtani (17) throws in the outfield before the second game of a double header against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | Brad Penner-Imagn Images
The original plan was for Shohei Ohtani to start on Wednesday’s series finale in Philadelphia, putting him in the sixth rotation spot after the break, maximizing his time off from pitching to rest his left knee, while also pitching directly before an off day. But those plans changed over the weekend, after Ohtani felt discomfort while throwing off flat ground on Friday.
“He was on the schedule when we broke for the All-Star break,” Roberts said. “And then it was more of the training staff talking to him about, ‘Hey, coming out of the break, how does Wednesday look? How do you feel? If you don’t feel 100 percent, we have the opportunity to just kick the can.’
As with Blake Snell, who has already started a rehab assignment, and Tyler Glasnow, the goal for the Dodgers is to have them all ready to pitch in October. But unlike the others, Ohtani is also the team’s best hitter. From Katie Woo at The Athletic:
“A lot of it is where we’re at and how we’ve put ourselves in a good spot,” Roberts explained. “Could he probably do it? Sure. But right now, the benefits just don’t seem to outweigh the cost at this time of the season. So I think we still have plenty of time to get him to a good spot to then pitch.
“I think that’s why we’re trying to be a little bit more on the proactive side … so we don’t have to worry about it throughout the end of the season.”
Ohtani this season has a 1.79 ERA in 14 starts with 95 strikeouts against 26 walks. Among major league pitchers with at least 80 innings this season, he ranks second in ERA and third in xERA (2.70). Ohtani’s last pitching start was July 3 against the San Diego Padres at Dodger Stadium.
“In one game, it’s great,” Roberts said. “But the exponential effect that it has on everybody else, it is huge, and it’s hard to really nail down how valuable that is.
“If you have a guy that not only puts you in a position to win a game, but also saves a lot of arms, that goes hand-in-hand with the top end of the rotation guy.”
Yamamoto leads the majors this season averaging 6.65 innings per start.
The full NBA regular-season schedule is typically released in mid-August. The Sixers already know they’ll be in East Group B for the 2026 NBA Cup with the Knicks, Cavaliers, Heat and Pacers.
The Calgary Flames pulled off a couple of headline-stealing moves before and after the NHL Draft. First, they acquired defenseman Simon Nemec from the New Jersey Devils and stuck to their guns and kept their ninth overall pick. Then, when the dust settled on the first week of free agency, the Flames dealt veteran leader Blake Coleman to the Minnesota Wild.
Despite taking significant steps to continue their rebuild, Bleacher Report viewed Calgary's offseason as more average than impactful, handing the Flames a C+ grade.
Everyone knew going into the offseason that Calgary wouldn't make any big pitches in free agency; instead, their focus was on making room for prospects to crack the NHL lineup. As the days passed, the rumors continued to swirl around Coleman, who was entering the final year of his current deal, and many wondered if he'd be moved, despite his wishes to stay, to free up a spot for a youngster.
In the deal with the Wild, the Flames traded away Coleman and Olli Määttä in exchange for more draft picks and Jacob Middleton. Of course, draft capital can go a long way in a rebuild, but at first glance, Middleton will not have the same impact in the lineup as Coleman once did. It will be interesting to revisit this deal in a couple of years, when General Manager Craig Conroy uses or flips the draft picks.
Meanwhile, part of the skepticism stems from the expectation that Calgary could take another step backward in the standings in 2026-27. While the Flames continue to build around young players like Dustin Wolf, Matt Coronato and Zayne Parekh, the roster still lacks the offensive firepower needed to compete for a playoff spot and stop being one of the NHL's lowest-scoring teams.
Calgary fans have experienced a rebuild paying off before. After drafting players like Sam Bennett, Johnny Gaudreau, and Matthew Tkachuk in the early 2010s, the Flames eventually developed into a Pacific Division champion. Right now, the organization hopes its current young core can follow a similar path, even if that success is still a few seasons away.
Whether Bleacher Report's C+ offseason grade turns out to be accurate will depend largely on Calgary's young core. If Nemec develops into the top-pair defenseman, someone fills the leadership role vacated by Coleman, and prospects like Parekh, Coronato, and Wolf continue their upward trajectory to stardom, this offseason could eventually be viewed far more favorably than it is today.
MIAMI, FL - APRIL 12: Zaccharie Risacher #10 of the Atlanta Hawks dribbles the ball during the game against the Miami Heat on April 12, 2026 at Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
The Dallas Mavericks were part of a three-team trade Sunday that landed them Zaccharie Risacher from the Atlanta Hawks in exchange for Ryan Nembhard and a second round pick. With the move, Dallas swaps a part-time starter for the No. 1 pick of the 2024 NBA Draft.
This is a very low-risk, potentially high-reward move for Dallas. The undrafted Nembhard was a part-time starter who brought stability to the team last season when guard play was in high demand. He showed flashes of brilliance when it came to ball handling, often producing absurd assist-to-turnover ratios for a solid stretch. Yet, Nembhard is a relatively undersized player who was all but certainly going to lose minutes to the returning Kyrie Irving and newly acquired Marcus Sasser.
Risacher on the other hand, is former first overall pick who has not quite lived up to the status that comes with such a selection, yet nonetheless finished second in Rookie of the Year voting in 2024-25 and who fits well with the Cooper Flagg timeline; he is two years younger than Nembhard and will play most of next season as a 21-year old. His contract is more robust than Nembhard’s, but the Mavericks hold virtually all the cards.
The nuances of the contract
Risacher comes to Dallas with two years remaining on his contract. The Hawks exercised a club option on him to lock him in for the 2026-27 season, which he will now play in Dallas, getting paid $13.8 million. 2027-28 is the final year of his current contract, but that too remains a team option, leaving the Mavericks with great control of the situation. However, that control comes with a caveat.
On the surface, it appears Dallas could simply walk after this coming season if they don’t like what they see, but there is more to the story. If the Mavericks plan on locking down Risacher and his $17.4 million for the 2027-28 season, they will need to do so just a few games into his Mavericks’ tenure. The Mavericks have until October 31, 2026 to exercise the team option for 2027-28 season. If they choose to exercise the option and Risacher does not work out, Dallas is stuck with him and a $17.4 million bill. If they choose not to exercise the option and Risacher has a breakout season, Dallas will have market competition to retain him. Risacher will no longer be an unrestricted free agent in this scenario, but Dallas will retain his Bird Rights.
What to expect
While we don’t know the philosophical approach the Mavs’ front office will follow, for my hypothetical money, Dallas is going to exercise their option on Risacher and commit to him for the remaining two years on his contract. To me, this is a no-brainer.
Risacher was drafted two years ago, but is of an age that he could easily have been in the Draft this past June. He is just shy of two years older than Flagg, so he is well aligned with the timeline of the face of the franchise. Ultimately, it’s difficult to determine any reason not to take the chance here. Risacher may benefit from a scenery change, and the tutelage of Dusty May, Joe Boylan and the player-friendly coaching staff forming in Dallas could yet bring the best out of him. For what relatively little they gave up to get him, it makes sense for Dallas to commit in the short term to see what Risacher can yet become. This is especially true if the forward-heavy team is trimmed down a bit if and when a veteran or two is moved. In a worst-case scenario, they will have a $17 million expiring contract to dangle as trade bait in 2027-28.
Whatever the case, we have just over three months (or less) until we find out. For now, Dallas continues to put together a young, long and rangy team of athletes around Cooper Flagg, with most of the summer yet to play out.
I invite you to follow me @_80MPH on X, and check back often at Mavs Moneyball for all the latest on the Dallas Mavericks.
NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 25: Devin Booker looks on after being selected 13th overall by the Phoenix Suns in the First Round of the 2015 NBA Draft at the Barclays Center on June 25, 2015 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) | Getty Images
I began watching the NBA in 1988, nearly 40 years ago now. Granted, I experienced it through the eyes of a child who was captivated by the game, but I was fortunate enough to grow up watching not only an entertaining brand of basketball but one built on consistency.
Free agency truly arrived the season after I became a fan, and trades have always been part of the league. Even so, continuity was still the norm. Players moved when relationships fractured, organizations believed they had reached their ceiling, or age dictated a different direction. It wasn’t common to see players traded simply because a team was trying to be fiscally responsible.
Today’s NBA is different. The modern collective bargaining agreement has made maintaining continuity increasingly difficult. Add the player empowerment era to that, and loyalty has become increasingly rare.
In Phoenix, we’ve experienced every version of that over the past few years. I now have a deep hatred of aprons, and I now possess many shirts with stains upon them as a result. At the same time, we’re one of the few organizations that still has a player entering his 12th season with the franchise. We know what loyalty looks like because we’ve watched Devin Booker embody it. He’s one of only four players who have remained with the same organization since 2015, joining Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Nikola Jokic.
But in an era defined by escalating salaries, annual cap growth, and restrictive tax aprons, loyalty has become a dying breed for both players and organizations. It’s simply become too difficult to afford it.
We see this in the conversations surrounding Devin Booker, whose salary will account for 35.1% of the cap this upcoming season. Unless he’s producing at an All-NBA level, people begin viewing that contract as a negative. That’s simply the reality of today’s NBA.
We’ve watched that same reality play out in Boston. The primary reason general manager Brad Stevens ultimately moved on from Jaylen Brown was his contract. Boston was scheduled to pay him $57.1 million this season and another $185 million over the following three years. That salary created an inflection point, forcing the organization to ask whether keeping one of its most beloved and respected players was still financially responsible.
Sure, the Celtics didn’t have to offer Brown the supermax extension. But he earned it. You can’t fault an organization for trying to stay loyal to a player who helped deliver a championship. At the same time, that loyalty eventually forced a decision, one that ultimately resulted in Brown being traded to the Philadelphia 76ers.
“The reality in this era and in this day of age of the NBA,” Steven stated in his presser explaining why the decsions was made, “and you can see it obviously with the last couple of champions and some of teams that were at the very top of the league, when it was all said and done at the end of this year, you have to do a great job, and you have to have the optionality to do a great job of building out depth, that hopefully replace the irreplaceable individual. And that’s not an easy thing to do.”
One thing I appreciated about what Brad Stevens said in his press conference was that he openly acknowledged the issue. He pointed directly to the way the current collective bargaining agreement is structured and how it discourages organizations from keeping together the players they drafted and developed. That’s something that has to be addressed when the next CBA is negotiated. I’m glad Stevens said those words publicly because it gives the players’ association something tangible to build from as both sides begin preparing for the next round of negotiations in 2029.
The league has to find a better balance. It shouldn’t penalize organizations or players for loyalty. The longer a player stays with one franchise and the better he performs, the larger his contract naturally becomes, and it should. Players deserve to be rewarded for their success. At the same time, the organization that drafted, developed, and retained that player should receive some benefit as well.
At the end of the day, this is sports entertainment, and part of what makes it entertaining is loyalty. And it is for the fans. It’s identifying a player you enjoy rooting for, watching him grow, and knowing there’s a good chance he’ll still be wearing your team’s jersey for years to come.
So how do you fix this? Let’s call it the “loyalty tax.”
I’ll use the Phoenix Suns as a practical example. Devin Booker is slated to make $57.1 million this season, which accounts for 35.1% of the salary cap. Now imagine a world where a loyalty tax is built into escalating contracts.
Booker is on his third contract with the Suns and has already signed his fourth. Imagine if cap relief became available beginning with a player’s third contract with the organization that drafted him. The player would still earn a salary based on the percentage of the cap he negotiated. In Booker’s case, that’s $57.1 million, or 35.1% of the cap. The difference is that the organization would receive a 5% loyalty tax break.
So while Booker still earns 35.1% of the cap, only 30.1% would count against the Suns’ cap sheet. That immediately creates $8.25 million in additional cap room, because 5% of this season’s $165 million salary cap equals $8.25 million.
What does that 5% accomplish? It gives the organization greater flexibility to remain competitive while rewarding it for drafting, developing, and retaining a homegrown player. It creates enough room to add an $8.25 million player to the roster. More importantly, it helps preserve continuity and competitiveness without forcing organizations into a financial inflection point that eventually leads to tearing everything down and starting over.
It sounds like a win win, but there are certainly byproducts to a system like this that could ultimately prevent it from ever becoming reality. If there’s a 5% loyalty tax break, that means the owners, if they choose to use it, are effectively paying for another $8.25 million player. Some owners wouldn’t have an issue with that. Others certainly would.
Then there’s the business side of the NBA. Maybe the league likes constant player movement. Every blockbuster trade creates another wave of merchandise sales. As I write this, there are probably brand-new Jaylen Brown jerseys being pressed in Philadelphia, waiting to hit the team store shelves. That doesn’t happen if players stay with one franchise their entire careers.
Perhaps the best strategy is to let them remain loyal for 11 years, then have them change their jersey number before Year 12. That seems to work pretty well for Devin Booker.
Overall, though, I believe the current system is broken. It’s forcing organizations to abandon long-term continuity in an effort to balance the cap sheet and avoid restrictive aprons. In turn, it hurts the customer base. It hurts the fans. Teams aren’t moving on from players because the chemistry disappeared, the locker room fractured, or age finally caught up to them. More often than not, they’re moving on because those players have become numbers on a cap sheet, pixels in an Excel spreadsheet that can no longer fit within the league’s financial restrictions. That feels like a problem worth solving.
Maybe a loyalty tax isn’t the answer. Maybe there are unintended consequences I haven’t considered. But the problem is real. The current system increasingly encourages organizations to move on from the very players they drafted, developed, and celebrated simply because the math stops working. That’s not a basketball problem. That’s an accounting problem. Fans invest in players, not cap sheets. They invest in relationships that take years to build.
If the next collective bargaining agreement can’t find a way to better reward loyalty, both sides risk losing one of the things that has always made the NBA worth following in the first place.
18 Apr 1998: Right wing Claude Lemieux of the Colorado Avalanche in action during a game against the Detroit Red Wings at McNichols Arena in Denver, Colorado. The Avalanche defeated the Red Wings 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bahr /Allsport | Getty Images
Colorado Avalanche News
After acquiring the pick in the Valeri Nichushkin trade, the Avalanche selected Egor Shilov at No. 43 overall — a dynamic offensive talent with all the skill in the world. [The Hockey News]
Predicting Cale Makar’s next mega contract for the Colorado Avalanche. [SI]
Colorado Avalanche name Jussi Ahokas as Head Coach of their AHL affiliate Colorado Eagles. [CHL]
News Around the League
Tragic new details of Claude Lemieux’s final hours now revealed. [Toronto Sun]
Another Canucks management lesson: the failure of Steve Yzerman. [Ottawa Citizen]
Vancouver ordered to clear salary cap space amid their ongoing rebuild. [Pro Hockey Rumors]
Celebrini is open to taking discount on his next contract to help San Jose. [The Score]
Five NHL stars who could soon demand max contracts. [Sportsnet]
Blackhawks sign star Bedard to a five-year, $75M contract. [TSN]
Hurricanes’ Assistant GM Tyler Dellow celebrates his day with the Stanley Cup [NHL.com]
