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Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Preview

It’s Tuesday, May 6, and the Golden State Warriors (48-34) and Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33) are all set to square off from Target Center in Minneapolis.

The Warriors survived a game seven with an impressive win over the Houston Rockets. It will be interesting to see if we see another case of rest versus rust in game one of this match.

The Warriors last played on Sunday. The Timberwolves last played last Wednesday.

So far, the teams in the longer series have come out on top in game one. The Cavaliers, the Celtics, and the Thunder all lost game one at home.

As a 7-point underdog and +230 on the moneyline, the Warriors would be an interesting pizza money bet, to see if it happens.

The Warriors are currently 24-17 on the road with a point differential of 3, while the Timberwolves have a 8-2 record in their last ten games at home.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch tipoff, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

Listen to the Rotoworld Basketball Show for the latest fantasy player news, waiver claims, roster advice and more from our experts all season long. Click here or download it wherever you get your podcasts.

Game details & how to watch Warriors vs. Timberwolves live today

• Date: Tuesday, May 6, 2025
• Time: 9:30PM EST
• Site: Target Center
• City: Minneapolis, MN
• Network/Streaming: TNT, truTV

Never miss a second of the action and stay up to date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day NBA schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game.

Game odds for Warriors vs. Timberwolves

The latest odds as of Tuesday:

• Odds: Warriors (+234), Timberwolves (-289)
• Spread:  Timberwolves -7
• Over/Under: 209 points

That gives the Warriors an implied team point total of 103.45, and the Timberwolves 107.1.

Want to know which sportsbook is offering the best lines for every game on the NBA calendar? Check out the NBC Sports’ Live Odds tool to get all the latest updated info from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM & more!

Expert picks & predictions for Tuesday’s Warriors vs. Timberwolves game

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas) is betting on the Warriors +7 and +230...

Thomas: "It's game one, and the Timberwolves will likely win this game. If the Warriors complete the lower seed upset sweep, I want to have a little piece of the action."

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NBA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for today’s Warriors & Timberwolves game:

• Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
• Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Golden State Warriors at +7.
• Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the under on the Game Total of 209.

Want even more NBA best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert NBA Predictions page from NBC Sports for money line, spread and over/under picks for every game on today’s calendar!

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our NBA Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

- Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)

- Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)

- Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)

- Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)

While the NBA Playoffs are in full swing, now is a good time to recap the fantasy basketball season for all 30 teams.

In the following weeks, we will provide a recap for each team, starting with the team with the worst record and concluding with the NBA champion in June.

Today, we'll take a look at a team whose outlook has swung wildly since 2024 due to mounting injuries, huge contracts and an historic in-season trade.

2024-2025 NBA Team Season Recap Hub

The Rotoworld Basketball crew breaks down each team’s season and an early look at what to expect from a fantasy perspective going into the 2025-2026 campaign.

• Rotoworld Staff,

• Rotoworld Staff,

Dallas Mavericks 2024-2025 Season Recap

Record: 39-43 (10th, West)

Offensive Rating: 113.7 (18th)

Defensive Rating: 115 (20th)

Net Rating: -1.3 (19th)

Pace: 100.15 (12th)

2025 NBA Draft Picks: 1.8 percent chance of winning the lottery; no additional picks

After a wild run to the NBA Finals in 2024, the outlook in Dallas was peaches and cream. Early-season injuries kept the Mavs around .500, and Luka Doncic injured his left leg on Christmas in a loss to the Timberwolves.

Unbeknownst to everyone not named Nico Harrison or Rob Pelinka, that marquee matchup was Doncic’s last with Dallas.

In the middle of the night on February 1, the Mavs traded Doncic to the Lakers for Anthony Davis in a move that will be remembered as one of the most shocking in NBA history.

Dallas stayed afloat for five weeks after the incomprehensible trade, finally falling below .500 on March 9 with a loss to the Suns. From there, the Mavs were in free fall thanks to numerous injuries across the roster, including a devastating groin injury to Anthony Davis in his Dallas debut and a torn ACL for Kyrie Irving in early March.

According to ESPN, “Dallas used 47 different starting lineups this season, tied for the fourth most by any team since starters were first tracked in 1970-71. The Mavs missed a combined 363 games this season, nearly double from a year ago.”

Dallas had just two players on the team appear in at least 60 games, and at one point, the roster was so thin that the notion of forfeiting games was on the table.

The Mavericks ultimately stayed in the Play-In Tournament thanks to Phoenix’s utter collapse and a slew of underperforming teams at the bottom of the Western Conference standings. Dallas won its first game only to get crushed by Memphis and eliminated.

With a ton of money potentially on the books for next season, limited roster moves to make and an extended Kyrie absence, Dallas is in a far different place than it was last offseason after coming off a Finals loss to the Celtics.

Let’s recap last season’s fantasy performances and look ahead to 2025-26.

Fantasy Standout: Kyrie Irving

Irving was a steady producer yet again, as he delivered 24.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.3 steals and 2.9 triples while pushing for another 50/40/90 shooting season. Those numbers were good enough to finish 13th in per-game fantasy hoops value.

Irving has averaged 25.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.6 blocks and 2.9 triples across his last eight seasons, with 48.9/90/3/40.1 splits. You know what you’re going to get from this guy year in and year out, but unfortunately, that also means plenty of missed games.

Irving has appeared in 60 or fewer games in each of the last six seasons, appearing in fewer than 30 twice. He logged just 50 games in 2024-25 before suffering a torn ACL in his left knee on March 3. Irving stepped to the free throw line with tears in his eyes before ultimately leaving the matchup with Sacramento.

Irving underwent surgery on March 26, and he’s targeting a return to the court in January. Given his injury history, age and severity of his latest injury, Irving will be a tough guy to draft in fantasy hoops for the upcoming season. Managers looking to stash him on the bench may want to take a chance on him late in drafts but otherwise, he can remain on the waiver wire.

Fantasy Revelation: Naji Marshall

Marshall was excellent in his first season with the Mavs, averaging 13.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.0 steal and 0.9 triples across 27.8 minutes. He shot 50.8% from the floor and 81.3% from the charity stripe, setting new career highs across all aforementioned categories.

The former Pelican appeared in 69 games and earned 31 starts, picking up the slack for the injury-riddled Mavs and shining when given additional playing time.

Over the final 20 games of the season, Marshall racked up 18.5 points, 6.3 boards, 3.8 dimes and a steal across 34.4 minutes. He was a top 100 player in that span, and he’s on the rise heading into the 2025-26 campaign.

Dallas will be without Kyrie for multiple months to start the season, and the Mavs’ roster is far from deep. Expect Marshall to play meaningful minutes next season, making him an interesting late-round selection in fantasy drafts.

Fantasy Disappointment: Klay Thompson

Thompson’s break with Golden State after 13 seasons and four titles was a monster headline last offseason, but the fit with Dallas seemed like a match made in heaven. Play off-ball as a catch-and-shoot sniper alongside Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic? No-brainer!

Despite being available for a surprising 72 games, Thompson’s performance was far from elite. He averaged 14 points, 3.4 boards, 2.0 dimes, 0.7 steals and 3.0 triples across 27.3 minutes per game.

The points and minutes were his fewest since his 2011-12 rookie campaign, and his three-pointers were his fewest since 2013-14. To make things worse, he shot a career-low 41.2% from the field.

Heading into his 15th season and with two major injuries on his resume, it’s highly unlikely Thompson shows significant improvement in efficiency or scoring. He finished 141st in per-game fantasy hoops value, and that’s his likely ceiling for the 2025-26 season.

Fantasy Recaps/Look-Aheads

Anthony Davis:

AD enjoyed another productive campaign, finishing fourth in per-game fantasy value behind averages of 24.7 points, 11.6 boards, 3.5 dimes, 1.2 steals, 2.2 blocks and 0.7 triples.

On February 1, he was shockingly dealt to the Mavs for Luka Doncic. Davis went off for a monster 26/16/7 with three blocks in his Dallas debut before suffering a groin injury that kept him out for the next month and a half.

Davis logged only nine games with the Mavs, averaging 20 points, 10.1 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 2.2 blocks. He went for a 23/13/10 triple-double in the regular season finale and dropped 40 in the final Play-In game.

Davis should be a per-game monster once again, but availability remains a glaring concern. After appearing in a career-high 76 games in 2023-24, he took the court just 51 times last season.

Daniel Gafford:

Gafford finished his first full season in Dallas with averages of 12.3 points, 6.8 boards, 1.4 assists, 0.4 steals and 1.8 swats across 57 appearances. An MCL sprain in his right knee forced him to miss significant time, sitting out from February 12 to March 31.

The big man split time fairly evenly with Dereck Lively II when both were available, and the pair posted similar numbers across the board. Gafford shot at least 70% from the floor for the third straight season, and he’s reached that mark in four of six.

He finished just inside the top 100 in per-game fantasy value, but that was with meaningful minutes splitting time with Dereck Lively II as a two-headed monster at center. A full season of Anthony Davis means a diminished role for Gafford if he remains on the roster, but he’s a guy who could be on the move.

Dereck Lively II:

Lively II was productive when available, but he struggled to stay on the court for a second straight season. After logging just 36 games as a rookie, Lively II finished with just 55 games in Year 2, missing time due to a stress fracture in his right ankle.

The young big man averaged 8.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.6 steals and 1.6 blocks while shooting 70.2% from the field and 63% from the charity stripe. Lively II played 23.1 minutes per game, down marginally from the 23.5 he averaged as a rookie.

Lively II set new career highs in rebounds, assists, blocks and shooting percentages while posting eight double-doubles. He enjoyed one of the best games of his career when he went for 21/16 with three blocks on January 9 against Portland.

With a number of talented bigs on the roster, Dallas may trade one in the offseason, likely moving the older Gafford to address roster concerns elsewhere. If that happens, Lively II may play a similar role with 20+ minutes behind Anthony Davis, but his production could take a hit alongside the talented superstar. Fortunately for Lively II, he doesn’t need big minutes to finish around the top 100 in fantasy hoops thanks to his efficient FG% and strong shot-blocking ability.

PJ Washington:

Washington enjoyed arguably the best statistical season of his career, finishing with 14.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.1 blocks and 1.6 triples. Washington’s 45.3/72.2/38.1 shooting splits left a bit to be desired, but he posted strong counting stats, particularly in the defensive categories.

In his first full season with the Mavs, Washington logged 32.2 minutes and appeared in 57 games. Dallas was particularly thin at center for much of the season, and Washington stepped into a larger role as a rebounder, finishing with a career-high in that category. He set a new career-best mark when he grabbed 19 rebounds against the Thunder on January 23, finishing with a loaded 22/19/3/3/2 line with two triples.

It’s unclear if Dallas will roll out Anthony Davis at the four or the five, but if AD plays the four, Washington’s value could take a hit. He’ll surely see big minutes for this team, but he may not be as involved on the glass or on defense. Fantasy managers should pay close attention to the Mavs’ training camp and projected lineups heading into the 2025-26 season.

Spencer Dinwiddie:

Dinwiddie has played for four teams over the last four seasons, and he could be set to play for a fifth in five if he leaves this offseason. Dinwiddie is an unrestricted free agent following his second stint with Dallas, but the Mavs may be inclined to keep him around given the number of holes in the backcourt.

Dinwiddie averaged 11 points, 2.6 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 0.9 steals and 1.4 triples across 27 minutes, but his playing time was sporadic. He appeared in 79 games (30 starts) but logged only six total minutes across Dallas’ two Play-In games. Depending on how the offseason fleshes out, Dinwiddie may be worth a late-round selection in fantasy drafts if he lands in the right situation or stays in Dallas to take on an elevated role.

Max Christie:

Christie came over from LA in the Luka Doncic-Anthony Davis trade, and he made an instant impact. The young guard scored at least 15 points in each of his first seven games with Dallas, and he finished with 11.2 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 0.9 steals and 1.7 triples in 32 games with the franchise.

With Kyrie Irving set to miss time and plenty of roster questions, Christie could see an elevated role to open up the 2025-26 season. He’s a great late-round draft option for fantasy managers looking to take a chance on a high-upside player.

Brandon Williams:

Williams finished far outside the top 200 in per-game fantasy value, but he enjoyed a productive stretch while multiple key players were injured. Over his final 15 games with Dallas, B-Will averaged 15.5 points, 3.0 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.2 triples across 23.7 minutes.

The Mavs may want to give him a long look this offseason and bring him back on a team-friendly deal to shore up the roster. He’s not on the fantasy radar just yet, but he could be relevant if given the right opportunity.

Dante Exum:

After logging six games for Cleveland during the 2020-21 campaign, Exum was out of the NBA until signing with Dallas in 2023-24. He’s had a nice revival with the Mavs, and he averaged a career-high 8.7 points and 1.2 triples across 20 games in 2024-25. He’s an unrestricted free agent this summer, but even if he returns, he’ll be a role player with limited rotational minutes at best. Exum’s return has been a nice story, but it doesn’t translate to fantasy hoops production.

Restricted Free Agents: Kai Jones

Unrestricted Free Agents: Spencer Dinwiddie, Dante Exum

Club Option: None

Player Option: Kyrie Irving, Dwight Powell

This is only the third time in NBA history that the No. 6 and No. 7 seeds meet in the playoffs. However, the last time was two years ago and also included the Warriors (vs. Lakers, a series won by Los Angeles, who was then swept in the conference finals by eventual champion Denver). Here is what to know from this series.

When does the Timberwolves vs. the Warriors begin?

Minnesota travels to Golden State for the series opener on Tuesday night, May 6, at 9:30 p.m. Eastern. This is a fast turnaround for the Warriors, who played in a Game 7 in Houston on Sunday.

Minnesota vs. Golden State Playoffs Schedule 2025

All times are Eastern (* = if necessary)
Game 1: Warriors at Timberwolves (Tue. May 6, 9:30 ET, TNT)
Game 2: Warriors at Timberwolves (Thu. May 8, 8:30 ET, TNT)
Game 3: Timberwolves at Warriors (Sat. May 10, 8:30 ET, ABC)
Game 4: Timberwolves at Warriors (Mon. May 12, 10 ET, ESPN)
Game 5: Warriors at Timberwolves (Wed. May 14, TBD, TNT)*
Game 6: Timberwolves at Warriors (Sun. May 18, TBD, TBD)*
Game 7: Warriors at Timberwolves (Tue. May 20, 8:30 ET, ESPN)*

Player to watch: Jaden McDaniels

Nobody guarded Stephen Curry more in the regular season than Jaden McDaniels. Per NBA.com, McDaniels spent 28:40 matched up with Curry across four regular season matchups. The next closest was Keegan Murray at 18:50. Curry averaged 28.8 points per game against Minnesota in the regular season, and the Warriors went 3-1 in their matchups. The last time these teams played was in January, and Golden State’s lineup looks quite different. That shouldn’t change things for McDaniels, who averaged four fouls per game in the first round. They need him on the floor and making life difficult for Curry.

McDaniels enjoyed the best statistical season of his career this year, and that translated into 17.4 points per game in the first round. The Warriors’ defense will be keyed in on slowing down Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle, and McDaniels will need to step up as a scorer. He only averaged 10.8 points per game against the Warriors in the regular season. This series is a big opportunity for him on both ends of the floor.
—Noah Rubin, Rotoworld basketball analyst

Keys to watch for in Minnesota vs. Golden State

1) How do the Warriors handle the Timberwolves’ size?

Golden State's most-used lineup — and arguably best — in the first round was a small-ball five with Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Jimmy Butler III and Draymond Green at center (it had a +13.9 net rating).

That lineup will struggle to defend a huge Minnesota starting five of Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert. It's an issue of size. Steve Kerr can start Butler on Ant and Green on Randle to try and slow the two Minnesota shot creators (or swap the Butler/Green assignments), but there are potential mismatches elsewhere, such as who guards Gobert? The French big man punished the Lakers in the last series when they went small (particularly in the closeout game). Kerr could play a lot of Kevon Looney to match up with Gobert, but that still leaves a smaller player on McDaniels while at the same time hurting the Warriors' offense. Gary Payton II could get heavy minutes this season because of his defense.

Golden State's ultimate concern is this: A big Minnesota team plays nearly as good of defense as Houston, but led by Edwards, the Timberwolves' offense is exponentially better. Especially if Randle plays at the level he did against the Lakers.

2) Draymond Green vs. Rudy Gobert

There’s more than a little history here.

In a playoffs where the referees have permitted — if not outright green lit — increased physicality, letting Green and Gobert go at it with the proverbial gloves off could impact the series.

Another thing to watch with Green and Gobert: Will one have a big offensive impact in a game or games? When they did (Gobert in Game 5 vs. the Lakers, Green early in Game 7 vs. the Rockets), it’s a huge boost for their team.
—Kurt Helin, NBC Sports lead NBA writer

Predictions

Jay Croucher (NBC Sports Lead Betting Analyst): Timberwolves in 6

Minnesota is a version of Houston that can actually score. The Wolves will give GSW a lot of the same issues the Rockets did - size, athleticism, speed - but instead of Jalen Green as chief protagonist on offense it’ll be Anthony Edwards.

This Minnesota team looks improved on last year’s version that entered the conference finals as heavy favorite - they’re more versatile now and can play more styles. Their ability to play super big, or go 5 out with elite spacing and switching, should be too much for Golden State.

Drew Dinsick (NBC Sports Betting Analyst): Timberwolves in 5

Golden State has the best offensive player in the series with Steph and the experience with vet players and coach, but the numbers look bad in terms of overall matchup here, and the Warriors are coming out of a truly physical seven-game series that may have taken the wind out of their sails. Minnesota has had a propensity for playing with their food so I'm prepared to be wrong and would love a better price for them in series than what is currently available but it's looking like a clean win for Minnesota to me.

Kurt Helin (NBC Sports lead NBA writer): Timberwolves in 6

Before the playoffs tipped off, I predicted Golden State would advance to the Western Conference Finals, but after seeing Minnesota in person in the first round and watching the Warriors vs. Rockets games, I changed my mind. Anthony Edwards is ready for his star turn and will be the best player in this series (sorry, Steph), the Timberwolves' defense will challenge the Warriors as much or more than Houston, and Minnesota brings size across the board that Golden State will struggle to handle. The Warriors with Butler will not go quietly, but this is a rough matchup for them, if they thought the Rockets were physical…